CFB51 College Football Fan Community

The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Hawkinole on March 13, 2020, 02:04:18 AM

Title: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on March 13, 2020, 02:04:18 AM
There are no Olympic sports, no basketball, no baseball. The only thing left is COVID-19. The Mayor, Fred Hoiberg, Nebraska's coach, had influenza A on the sidelines. Not a good pic. 

Hoping we can have MLB. I am thinking that as coronavirus amps up, if countries have implemented restrictions, it amps back down. I am thinking two months of issues for sports. Maybe MLB starts in mid-May, or to be safe, in June?
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: MarqHusker on March 13, 2020, 02:31:22 AM
Volleyball tournaments canceled here in Indy this weekend.  Interestingly, IHSAA hasn't canceled basketball state playoffs, but no fans.
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: Cincydawg on March 13, 2020, 06:11:44 AM
I hesitate to "believe" anything about this.  The latency period is very concerning, I think.  It is possible this is just something that becomes "routine" over time.  It may be seasonal (or not).  We may find in a couple weeks it was not as bad as feared.  Maybe we all contract it and develop immunity.  Maybe this. maybe that.

I can appreciate folks wanting to be careful.  We had fairly recently zika scares and swine flu and whatever else and "survived".  My advice is to buy any toilet paper you can find anywhere.  (JK).

Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: MrNubbz on March 13, 2020, 08:22:37 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 13, 2020, 06:11:44 AM
My advice is to buy any toilet paper you can find anywhere.  (JK).
I have a 1/2 gallon of Mr Beam's Elixir
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: utee94 on March 13, 2020, 08:30:24 AM
I've got Amazon delivering 16 pallets of toilet paper to my home this afternoon, so I'm good.

As far as sports, if you consider them such, Indycar and NASCAR will both be running this weekend, with no fans in attendance.  I'm actually more of a Forumla1 fan, but they've canceled this weekend's season opening race that was supposed to occur in Australia.  Since the next few races beyond that are in Bahrain, Vietnam, and China, I'm assuming the entire first 20% of the season will be canceled. 

Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: LetsGoPeay on March 13, 2020, 08:41:47 AM
Quote from: MarqHusker on March 13, 2020, 02:31:22 AM
Volleyball tournaments canceled here in Indy this weekend.  Interestingly, IHSAA hasn't canceled basketball state playoffs, but no fans.
My daughter was supposed to have an AAU basketball tournament this weekend and an All-Star game on Sunday. Those were both cancelled. 

I'm in wait and see mode on the IHSAA regionals this weekend. My son's team won their sectional and play in the regional at Frankfort. They can definitely win that and move on. IHSAA sent out a memo to all the AD's (I am one) and they are actually allowing each school to have 75 admittances to the tournament games, not counting the 12 kids on the roster. That includes administration, coaches, managers, trainer, bookkeeper, and bus driver. The only other people allowed to attend are supposed to be immediate family and that is being defined as parents or siblings.  Last night we had to list 6 people who wanted to attend from our family and prioritize them from 1-6. The school is then going to make a list for the remaining 63 or 64 slots that are available after counting the essential personnel who will be able to attend.

Personally, I fully expect that the regionals will be cancelled.
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: utee94 on March 13, 2020, 09:06:51 AM
Quote from: LetsGoPeay on March 13, 2020, 08:41:47 AM
My daughter was supposed to have an AAU basketball tournament this weekend and an All-Star game on Sunday. Those were both cancelled.

I'm in wait and see mode on the IHSAA regionals this weekend. My son's team won their sectional and play in the regional at Frankfort. They can definitely win that and move on. IHSAA sent out a memo to all the AD's (I am one) and they are actually allowing each school to have 75 admittances to the tournament games, not counting the 12 kids on the roster. That includes administration, coaches, managers, trainer, bookkeeper, and bus driver. The only other people allowed to attend are supposed to be immediate family and that is being defined as parents or siblings.  Last night we had to list 6 people who wanted to attend from our family and prioritize them from 1-6. The school is then going to make a list for the remaining 63 or 64 slots that are available after counting the essential personnel who will be able to attend.

Personally, I fully expect that the regionals will be cancelled.
Yeah I'd say that's a safe assumption.

My kids' school district is on spring break next week, and so far hasn't announced closure beyond that, but it's inevitable.  Houston ISD and all districts in that metro canceled through 3/30. They have multiple cases in their town, but Austin metro just announced its first two cases, and so everything here will be shutting down as well.

Sure would be nice to have some NCAA basketball tourney to watch over the next few weeks of being shut-in...
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: GopherRock on March 13, 2020, 11:02:53 AM
The MSHSL ordered playoff games the rest of the week, starting today, to be behind closed doors with immediate family only present. I was more surprised that the League didn't close doors Thursday. I also suspect that next week's state boys basketball tournament will be cancelled. The closed-door move was to buy some time and guidance from MDH, MDE, and others. 
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 13, 2020, 11:12:14 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on March 13, 2020, 02:04:18 AM
Hoping we can have MLB. I am thinking that as coronavirus amps up, if countries have implemented restrictions, it amps back down. I am thinking two months of issues for sports. Maybe MLB starts in mid-May, or to be safe, in June?
I think the hope is that with an ultra-aggressive response up front, that we'll contain the spread until we get into warmer weather and hopefully this thing naturally tapers off. 

I'm surprised though. In my 41 years on the planet, I've never seen anything like this. Which is why (like a lot of people) I have no frame of reference whether this is an underreaction, appropriate response, or an overreaction. 
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: FearlessF on March 13, 2020, 11:12:30 AM
I watched the state high school boys basketball playoffs last night on TV

entertaining enuff
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: Kris60 on March 13, 2020, 11:33:30 AM
Daughter’s travel softball tournament in Charlotte this weekend cancelled.  Girls and boys state basketball tournaments here in WV cancelled (or postponed, don’t remember).  Spring sports in the county we live in have been put on hiatus until April.  School hasn’t been cancelled yet but I think it’s coming.

Had kind of a tense conversation with my kids’ school administrator yesterday.  My kids go to a small, private Christian school.  They sent a letter home Wednesday that any child who leaves the state will be required to be tested before being allowed back in school.  I went to the office yesterday and told them simply leaving the state doesn’t meet the criteria to be tested and there isn’t enough test kits out there to just test anyone.  She said their attorney assured them they were within their rights to set that standard.  I told her that as a private institution they can set whatever rules they want but it doesn’t mean they are pragmatic or based in common sense, and that when my wife emailed the letter to the administrator at the county health department she laughed and said someone from the school needed to contact her immediately.


They sent a new letter home yesterday walking back that part but made sure to put in bold print they were within their legal rights to demand that.  Just discouraged anyone from leaving the state.  This whole thing is surreal.
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: GopherRock on March 13, 2020, 12:14:02 PM
MSHSL cancels the rest of the winter tournaments. 
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: Cincydawg on March 13, 2020, 12:19:06 PM
Leaving the state?  Interesting.  Obviously there are not nearly enough test kits to check patients who lack obvious symptoms, much less folks who left the state.
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: Drew4UTk on March 13, 2020, 12:32:10 PM
Right about now I'm wishing I'd had ignored @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) and made his game electronic...

We could all assume a year and team, and have at "the greatest team ever" in style.
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: FearlessF on March 13, 2020, 01:03:23 PM
we could all get together to play the card game (gathering of less than 50)

each person shall bring one roll of TP to the party!
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: MrNubbz on March 13, 2020, 01:22:36 PM
Damn if I'm hearing this right the State of Ohio is banning group gatherings of 100 or more.Evidently except for libraries/restuarants - hope the potential virus gets the memo.May have heard that wrong though
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: rolltidefan on March 13, 2020, 02:03:33 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 13, 2020, 08:30:24 AM
I've got Amazon delivering 16 pallets of toilet paper to my home this afternoon, so I'm good.




what's new about that?
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 13, 2020, 02:08:07 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 13, 2020, 11:12:14 AM
Which is why (like a lot of people) I have no frame of reference whether this is an underreaction, appropriate response, or an overreaction.
This is directly due to the lack of tests being done.  People are being sent home with flu-but-not-the-flu symptoms because they haven't traveled abroad and haven't officially been exposed to someone with the virus.....except since no one is tested, we don't know if we've been exposed.  
.
It's a cluster-fuq.  
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 13, 2020, 02:08:38 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 13, 2020, 01:03:23 PM
we could all get together to play the card game (gathering of less than 50)

each person shall bring one roll of TP to the party!
I have zero doubt in my mind if we all sat around playing Whoa Nellie with some choice beverages, we'd have the time of our lives.
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 13, 2020, 02:33:18 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 13, 2020, 02:08:07 PM
This is directly due to the lack of tests being done.  People are being sent home with flu-but-not-the-flu symptoms because they haven't traveled abroad and haven't officially been exposed to someone with the virus.....except since no one is tested, we don't know if we've been exposed. 
.
It's a cluster-fuq. 
On that we agree. 
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: FearlessF on March 13, 2020, 02:37:12 PM
I'm unsure of the "when should someone get tested"

gotta have a decent reason above, "I feel funny and I'm worried"
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 13, 2020, 02:44:38 PM
The problem is people are seeking medical care with flu-like symptoms, but are being told they don't have the flu and it's uncertain what they have.  THOSE people are being sent home if they don't meet either of the (paltry) 2 parameters:
1 - have traveled abroad recently
2 - have been explosed to someone diagnosed with Coronavirus
.
#1 is fine, whatever, but there are plenty of domestic cases you could have been exposed to
#2 is the problem - with almost no one having been tested, none of us has knowingly been exposed to someone that's been diagnosed.  

Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: rolltidefan on March 13, 2020, 02:47:49 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 13, 2020, 02:37:12 PM
I'm unsure of the "when should someone get tested"

gotta have a decent reason above, "I feel funny and I'm worried"
agreed. on the other hand, "i've had high fever for a couple days and flu/strep/etc is all negative" is a good candidate to test. right now, unless they've traveled abroad, come in contact with a known infected person which they can name, or are hospitalization sick, those people aren't being tested.
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: huskerdinie on March 13, 2020, 03:13:53 PM
My health clinic called today to 'prescreen' me for coronavirus as I have a pre-op physical next Monday (for cataract surgery).  I was told they are limiting patients to have only one person accompany them to appointments.  I was asked about respiratory problems in the last 14 days or a fever above 100.  I am beginning to wonder if my eye doc is going to cancel / postpone my surgery for a later date.  

My daughter lives in Kentucky and they have cancelled school until March 25 and that could be extended, I believe.  My sons have kids in Alaska and Wyoming and so far, no school cancellations that I know of.  Kind of reminds me of the early 70's when both my dad and I had the Hong Kong flu and we stayed home but school was not cancelled and as far as I can remember no sports or other public events were cancelled.  This is the first time in my lifetime that I can remember major sports of all kinds being cancelled.  

My husband works at a truck stop here in Lincoln and I can't imagine how many people have come through his restaurant in the last two weeks and not just locals but the truckers coming from all over.  He keeps expecting the restaurant to be shut down but says as far as he knows, the truck stop has to stay open.  Imagine if truckers are quarantined - talk about an economic disaster waiting to happen.  

Makes me glad I recently ordered a ton of books that I have been missing from my library; at least I have something to read while stuck at home - not to mention all my DVD's I can watch.  No need to leave the house as I can even have my groceries delivered. 
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 13, 2020, 04:21:57 PM
Best of luck, HD.
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: FearlessF on March 13, 2020, 04:42:20 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 13, 2020, 02:44:38 PM
The problem is people are seeking medical care with flu-like symptoms, but are being told they don't have the flu and it's uncertain what they have.  THOSE people are being sent home if they don't meet either of the (paltry) 2 parameters:


I would hope they are being sent home to self quarantine and are then tested if they gain more symptoms
I also hope the tests are being denied to some because there is fear of a shortage and they are making progress in producing tests for large scale.

I understand not giving tests if they are in short supply and some folks are just nervous and would like to be tested.  Heck, some folks would probably like to be tested every few days.

If you think you need to be tested, you should quarantine yourself until you qualify for the test or until you are confident you are not carrying.
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 13, 2020, 04:58:24 PM
Yes, let's trust the masses to act responsibly.  For the first time in human history.
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: Hawkinole on March 13, 2020, 07:31:58 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 13, 2020, 11:12:14 AM
I think the hope is that with an ultra-aggressive response up front, that we'll contain the spread until we get into warmer weather and hopefully this thing naturally tapers off.

I'm surprised though. In my 41 years on the planet, I've never seen anything like this. Which is why (like a lot of people) I have no frame of reference whether this is an underreaction, appropriate response, or an overreaction.
We have had HIV which started mysteriously circa 1980. We had swine flu in 1976 under Gerald Ford, who rolled out a huge government sponsored swine flu vaccine program. I stood in line for that at our local hospital. These events never resulted in widespread cancellation of mass gatherings or sports events.

I too am curious if the spread will slow with warming weather, but then I read an article asserting that COVID-19 spreads just fine in Singapore and Australia.

Quote from: FearlessF on March 13, 2020, 02:37:12 PM
I'm unsure of the "when should someone get tested"

gotta have a decent reason above, "I feel funny and I'm worried"
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 13, 2020, 02:44:38 PM
The problem is people are seeking medical care with flu-like symptoms, but are being told they don't have the flu and it's uncertain what they have.  THOSE people are being sent home if they don't meet either of the (paltry) 2 parameters:
1 - have traveled abroad recently
2 - have been explosed to someone diagnosed with Coronavirus
.
#1 is fine, whatever, but there are plenty of domestic cases you could have been exposed to
#2 is the problem - with almost no one having been tested, none of us has knowingly been exposed to someone that's been diagnosed. 
My secretary was out all week with a respiratory issue, loss of voice, migraine, and fever. Tests for influenza and strep proved negative. No other test was offered.




Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 13, 2020, 08:10:19 PM
Here's a genuine problem (and an optics problem):
9 cases in Arizona. 
No big deal, right?  9 cases in 7 million people.  Big whoop.
.
Except....only 100 people have been tested. 
PROBLEM!
.
Optic:  9 out of 7 million
Actuality:  9 out of 100 tested
BIG DIFFERENCE
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: Hawkinole on March 13, 2020, 11:47:50 PM
I didn't realize until reading this opinion piece that spring football had not been cancelled by the NCAA.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/sports/college/iowa-state/randy-peterson/2020/03/13/coronavirus-ncaa-should-shut-down-spring-football/5042740002/ (https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/sports/college/iowa-state/randy-peterson/2020/03/13/coronavirus-ncaa-should-shut-down-spring-football/5042740002/)

I don't really know if it would make all the difference if spring ball were cancelled because these guys would still be doing weight training, and conditioning. They could reduce the risk by not doing the conditioning all at once, i.e. 120 guys wouldn't be in the same venue sweating and snorting at the same time. And with weights there are alcohol wipes and hand sanitizer, that is if you can buy them.

The moment one player gets seriously sickened in spring ball by coronavirus, and it spreads to his teammates the fingers will be pointing at the school where it happened, and especially at the NCAA, for not calling off spring practice, and making whatever adverse effect that has on player development, uniform.
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: bayareabadger on March 14, 2020, 12:03:12 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on March 13, 2020, 11:47:50 PM
I didn't realize until reading this opinion piece that spring football had not been cancelled by the NCAA.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/sports/college/iowa-state/randy-peterson/2020/03/13/coronavirus-ncaa-should-shut-down-spring-football/5042740002/ (https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/sports/college/iowa-state/randy-peterson/2020/03/13/coronavirus-ncaa-should-shut-down-spring-football/5042740002/)

I don't really know if it would make all the difference if spring ball were cancelled because these guys would still be doing weight training, and conditioning. They could reduce the risk by not doing the conditioning all at once, i.e. 120 guys wouldn't be in the same venue sweating and snorting at the same time. And with weights there are alcohol wipes and hand sanitizer, that is if you can buy them.

The moment one player gets seriously sickened in spring ball by coronavirus, and it spreads to his teammates the fingers will be pointing at the school where it happened, and especially at the NCAA, for not calling off spring practice, and making whatever adverse effect that has on player development, uniform.
The Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC have shut down all team activities, which I think means in some cases locking the weight rooms. 

Football could be a little ragged early next year. 
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: ELA on March 14, 2020, 12:21:53 AM
We all are starting fresh with new coaches though right...?...guys...?
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: Hawkinole on March 14, 2020, 01:43:57 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on March 14, 2020, 12:03:12 AM
The Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC have shut down all team activities, which I think means in some cases locking the weight rooms.

Football could be a little ragged early next year.
 The Big Ten website does now show the Big Ten canceled team activities Friday. But conferences other than the three you mention appear may not to have done so. Some individual schools have done so in the PAC-12. If some conferences do it and not others then competitive advantages slip into the system. Spring ball  should be shut down now by the entire NCAA. Some teams have already had the advantage of practices.
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: Hawkinole on March 14, 2020, 01:47:50 AM
Quote from: ELA on March 14, 2020, 12:21:53 AM
We all are starting fresh with new coaches though right...?...guys...?
No, this is the way it will work.

Each team must have a head coach in his 21st year as head coach. Those teams with less head coaching experience can still play, but must forfeit to any team that has a head coach in his 21st season.
Title: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on March 14, 2020, 09:38:24 AM
School is cancelled until April. Court is continuing nearly everything for a month. It looks like I'll be home with my kids for an extended period of time.

What's good on TV? Movies? Video games? Other ideas?
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: FearlessF on March 14, 2020, 09:44:55 AM
HBO is running a free weekend special on our cable system - great timing

I assume they will pick up many subscribers
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: utee94 on March 14, 2020, 09:57:32 AM
Disney+ has a lot of options, I'll probably do a short-term subscription to them.

We'll do a lot of outdoor activities at the neighborhood parks.  My kids are getting a little too old for the playground equipment which is just as well since this virus can live on plastic and metal surfaces for extended periods of time.  However, like most of these bugs, it does appear vulnerable to sunlight and fresh air, so that will help keep the parks a little cleaner and a little less infected.

Recently DVD-released movies that we've enjoyed with the kids are Frozen 2 and Knives Out (lots of language in this one but it's nothing they haven't heard before).   There are others, don't recall them but if I do I'll throw them out.

I still haven't canceled my RV camping trip to the beach next weekend.  The campsites themselves are plenty distant from one another, and the beach is as crowded or non-crowded as you choose, based on where you park.  My main concerns are logistical ones-- the trips is a couple hundred miles and what happens if a quarantine comes down and we're not allowed to return home? Or what happens if there's a panic-run on gas and we're unable to return?  Or what happens if there's further panic-runs on food and we're unable to get something necessary?  It could be most prudent just to stay home, but I'll play it by ear and see how the next 5 days go.  I can cancel last-minute if need be.


Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: FearlessF on March 14, 2020, 09:58:19 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 13, 2020, 04:58:24 PM
Yes, let's trust the masses to act responsibly.  For the first time in human history.
as you know, stupidity of the masses can't be controlled, only slowed
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: Cincydawg on March 14, 2020, 10:17:02 AM
I presume those tested were selected as being from the high risk group, so 9 out of 100 is not such a bad figure.

That does not mean of course that 9% of population at large is infected.

It doesn't mean it doesn't either.
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: bayareabadger on March 14, 2020, 10:17:59 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on March 14, 2020, 01:43:57 AM
The Big Ten website does now show the Big Ten canceled team activities Friday. But conferences other than the three you mention appear may not to have done so. Some individual schools have done so in the PAC-12. If some conferences do it and not others then competitive advantages slip into the system. Spring ball  should be shut down now by the entire NCAA. Some teams have already had the advantage of practices.

Per this release (https://t.co/ZeNnHJYpfC?amp=1)
"The Big Ten Conference announced today that all organized team activities have been suspended until April 6, 2020 and will be re-evaluated at that time."

Unsure if that means locking weight rooms, but it does mean offseason weights and practices. 
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: rolltidefan on March 14, 2020, 10:29:28 AM
not sure if it's been posted here or not, but spring sport athletes WILL get another year of eligibility. ncaa working on solution for winter sports.

https://twitter.com/goodmanhoops/status/1238515080456810499?s=21 (https://twitter.com/goodmanhoops/status/1238515080456810499?s=21)
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 14, 2020, 12:40:25 PM
Denison and OWU played a w lacrosse game last night (Friday) as a season finale that was initially scheduled for March 25. Commendable devotion to a rivalry, but I didn't know that you could do that. Didn't the NCAA mandate no more games? Weird.
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 14, 2020, 01:07:14 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 14, 2020, 10:17:02 AM
I presume those tested were selected as being from the high risk group, so 9 out of 100 is not such a bad figure.

That does not mean of course that 9% of population at large is infected.

It doesn't mean it doesn't either.
Of course, but even 9% of people at high risk is huge and scary.  I assume most people with the symptoms have a cold or the flu.  The fact that only 100 people have been tested in a medium-sized state is criminal/insane.  THAT is the problem.
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 14, 2020, 01:34:24 PM
I'm just printing & cutting.  This order I'm working on now is the 2019 Big Ten conference.  
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 14, 2020, 02:04:00 PM
Take them golfing
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: Cincydawg on March 14, 2020, 02:45:36 PM
In 7-10 days, I think we will probably have some "reliable" information instead of ridiculous rumors and partisan spin.  My GUESS is we'll be adjusting by then and largely back to quasi-normalcy with additional precautions.  We were out walking and while there were a lot of folks out and about it was probably about half "normal" for a nice day hereabouts.  We went in Whole Foods and it was probably half normal.  They had plenty on the shelves.  The bar next door to us is full right now.

The public library closed for a while on us.  Bummer.  The art museum has closed.  I presume the symphony is cancelling, I have not heard from them.

The botanical garden was open yesterday.  They had a guy opening doors to the orchid center for everyone with a rag and spray bottle.  The park is pretty close to normal.

I worry about the smaller restaurants around.
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 14, 2020, 02:46:15 PM
I would put mine to work in the yard on spring cleanup.
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: MarqHusker on March 14, 2020, 02:54:52 PM
Jigsaw puzzles are perfect for this.  We have a few in the queue.

State flags and capitols, which is really tricky with the columns and domes.   The flag similarities are really tough to distinguish.   

Then one of early 20th century baseball cards.  My kids loved doing that one during an ice storm a couple years ago.
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: ELA on March 14, 2020, 03:10:36 PM
We've done three puzzles already.  I've always loved them, my wife hates them, but now the oldest loves them, so Ive got a partner.

Also, can't lie, I'm watching each and every one of these basketball sims.
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 14, 2020, 03:16:02 PM
In 7-10 days, the number of confirmed cases may be peaking....
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: MaximumSam on March 14, 2020, 05:27:58 PM
Puzzles sound good. We got a decent amount of snow today so they had fun playing in that
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: huskerdinie on March 14, 2020, 05:44:47 PM
My husband and I are taking turns playing Fallout 4.  I play when he is at work, he plays when he gets home and on his days off we play Age of Wonders III together.  In between, I am catching up on recorded shows and reading books I recently bought.  Unfortunately for me, I read way fast so I will run out of those pretty quickly then it's back to my home library and starting over with my series.  Still trying to decide between Sherrilyn Kenyon's Ichidian Universe, her Dark-Hunter series or immersing myself in Anne Perry's William Monk novels.  Decisions, decisions.  

If all else fails, my sister and I will play Quiddler or Scrabble.  Can't talk anyone into playing Trivial Pursuit with me, ha ha.  
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: Cincydawg on March 14, 2020, 06:37:08 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 14, 2020, 03:16:02 PM
In 7-10 days, the number of confirmed cases may be peaking....
Sure, I don't know.  The number of asymptomatic folks walking around could be enormous.  I'm making a GUESS  based on little more than hope and experience with past viral pandemics.  Americans may decide "it's not that bad" even if it is that bad for many folks.

As we get more folks analyzed, we'll see a climb obviously.  At some point, people will poke their heads out and sniff the air and decide it's OK out there.  Alternatively, this could well be horrendous and the country virtually shuts down for weeks.  That would be a grim scenario indeed.  We already have had calls in our building for folks to help older residents get groceries.
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 14, 2020, 06:40:35 PM
I would like an official, national answer to what's the sliding scale of deaths vs inconvenience.  What's the acceptable number of deaths crossed with the number of days/weeks of standstill?
.
For cars, the number is around 35,000 in the U.S.
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: Cincydawg on March 14, 2020, 06:55:47 PM
An old saying is "A recession is when your neighbor loses his job, a depression is when you lose your job."

Statistics for most are largely meaningless unless personal.  If a LOT of us knew people killed in car accidents each year, folks would be more upset.  No one I've ever known has been killed in a car accident.  The figure used to be 50-60,000 a year.  It's the same with all categories of risk.  Few humans deal well with probabilities of that ilk.

We say that driving is more dangerous than flying.  Each flight disaster makes the news, a car accident makes the 11 PM news, perhaps, unless it's a busload of kids.  A shooting of 3-4 people barely makes the local news, a mass shooting of 50 is news for a week, or more, even if they are somewhat rare (thankfully).

When I was a kid, quicksand worried the heck out of me.  I've never seen any.  Most of us die of issues associated with obesity or pulmonary issues.  Think how dangerous smoking is for your health, and 20% of us do it routinely.  My Grandad smoked for 60 years and just died of old age, they think.
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: Cincydawg on March 14, 2020, 07:04:21 PM
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-italy-hospitals-doctor-lockdown-quarantine-intensive-care-a9401186.html?fbclid=IwAR24O5dI2hXDWQrn8kzyXmh_cRCYZJeH9ByxA8TVxjXoG4bil3zCP7PNrPk (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-italy-hospitals-doctor-lockdown-quarantine-intensive-care-a9401186.html?fbclid=IwAR24O5dI2hXDWQrn8kzyXmh_cRCYZJeH9ByxA8TVxjXoG4bil3zCP7PNrPk)

Things in Italy sound really bad.  Our daughter is in lock down in a tiny village in France.  Everything is closed except essentials.  She has four boys.  

If the Italian hospital system collapses, things will get worse quickly.  I fear that the health care workers will get sick in time.  Is this headed here?
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 14, 2020, 08:02:07 PM
Quote from: huskerdinie on March 14, 2020, 05:44:47 PM
My husband and I are taking turns playing Fallout 4.  I play when he is at work, he plays when he gets home and on his days off we play Age of Wonders III together.  In between, I am catching up on recorded shows and reading books I recently bought.  Unfortunately for me, I read way fast so I will run out of those pretty quickly then it's back to my home library and starting over with my series.  Still trying to decide between Sherrilyn Kenyon's Ichidian Universe, her Dark-Hunter series or immersing myself in Anne Perry's William Monk novels.  Decisions, decisions. 

If all else fails, my sister and I will play Quiddler or Scrabble.  Can't talk anyone into playing Trivial Pursuit with me, ha ha. 
I use the Kindle so getting new books is easy for me. But even with Amazon prime, it's only a 1-2 day wait.

I do words with friends because nobody in real life play will scrabble with me.
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 14, 2020, 09:26:01 PM
I get to return to work Monday, with 980 kids and 100 staff coming back from Spring Break.  Unknown how many kids and their families traveled to California, Mexico, etc.  Unknown if they've done a damn thing to avoid getting sick.  
.
Lucky me.
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 14, 2020, 09:27:41 PM
We're 11 days behind them on a very similar tragectory.  
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: bayareabadger on March 15, 2020, 12:08:55 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 14, 2020, 02:45:36 PM
In 7-10 days, I think we will probably have some "reliable" information instead of ridiculous rumors and partisan spin.  My GUESS is we'll be adjusting by then and largely back to quasi-normalcy with additional precautions.  We were out walking and while there were a lot of folks out and about it was probably about half "normal" for a nice day hereabouts.  We went in Whole Foods and it was probably half normal.  They had plenty on the shelves.  The bar next door to us is full right now.

The public library closed for a while on us.  Bummer.  The art museum has closed.  I presume the symphony is cancelling, I have not heard from them.

The botanical garden was open yesterday.  They had a guy opening doors to the orchid center for everyone with a rag and spray bottle.  The park is pretty close to normal.

I worry about the smaller restaurants around.
To avoid that, trust Anthony Fauci.
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: Hawkinole on March 15, 2020, 01:59:12 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 14, 2020, 06:55:47 PM
An old saying is "A recession is when your neighbor loses his job, a depression is when you lose your job."

Statistics for most are largely meaningless unless personal.  If a LOT of us knew people killed in car accidents each year, folks would be more upset.  No one I've ever known has been killed in a car accident.  The figure used to be 50-60,000 a year.  It's the same with all categories of risk.  Few humans deal well with probabilities of that ilk.

We say that driving is more dangerous than flying.  Each flight disaster makes the news, a car accident makes the 11 PM news, perhaps, unless it's a busload of kids.  A shooting of 3-4 people barely makes the local news, a mass shooting of 50 is news for a week, or more, even if they are somewhat rare (thankfully).

When I was a kid, quicksand worried the heck out of me.  I've never seen any.  Most of us die of issues associated with obesity or pulmonary issues.  Think how dangerous smoking is for your health, and 20% of us do it routinely.  My Grandad smoked for 60 years and just died of old age, they think.
The U.S.A. had taken many steps not mandated by the federal government, and so I do have some optimism since the federal response has been opposite of robust.
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: MrNubbz on March 15, 2020, 02:16:16 AM


More news from China

执㝧执瑩浻牡楧㩮㔱硰执㝧执獧浻牡楧敬瑦瀰絸朣杢㑳执獧扻捡杫潲湵潣潬㩲昣昸昸㬸慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧敷止瑩札慲楤湥楬敮牡氬晥⁴潴敬瑦戠瑯潴牦浯㡦㡦㡦潴捥捥捥戻捡杫潲湵浩条㩥眭扥楫楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散戻捡杫潲湵浩条㩥洭穯氭湩慥牧摡敩瑮琨灯㡦㡦㡦捥捥捥㬩慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧獭氭湩慥牧摡敩瑮琨灯㡦㡦㡦捥捥捥㬩慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散戻捡杫潲湵浩u条㩥楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散汩整㩲牰杯摩䐺䥘慭敧牔湡晳牯楍牣獯景牧摡敩瑮猨慴瑲潃潬卲牴昣昸昸䔬摮潃潬卲牴攣散散㬩潢摲牥硰猠汯摩⌠㙣㙣㙣搻獩汰祡戺潬正潭潢摲牥爭摡畩㩳瀲㭸漭戭牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰敷止瑩戭牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰戻牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰执獧搴摻獩汰祡戺潬正瀻獯瑩潩㩮敲慬楴敶执獧搴筮楤灳慬㩹湩楬敮戭潬正漻敶晲潬
 朣楢琴执㝧执瑩浻牡楧㩮㔱硰执㝧执獧浻牡楧敬瑦瀰絸朣杢㑳执獧扻捡杫潲湵潣潬㩲昣昸昸㬸慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧敷止瑩札慲楤湥楬敮牡氬晥⁴潴敬瑦戠瑯潴牦浯㡦㡦㡦潴捥捥捥戻捡杫潲湵浩条㩥眭扥楫楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散戻捡杫潲湵浩条㩥洭穯氭湩慥牧摡敩瑮琨灯㡦㡦㡦捥捥捥㬩慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧獭氭湩慥牧摡敩瑮琨灯㡦㡦㡦捥捥捥㬩慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散戻捡杫潲湵浩u条㩥楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散汩整㩲牰杯摩䐺䥘慭敧牔湡晳牯楍牣獯景牧摡敩瑮猨慴瑲潃潬卲牴昣昸昸䔬摮潃潬卲牴攣散散㬩潢摲牥硰猠汯摩⌠㙣㙣㙣搻獩汰祡戺潬正潭潢摲牥爭摡畩㩳瀲㭸漭戭牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰敷止瑩戭牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰戻牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰执獧搴摻

If I hear anything else,  I’ll let you know.



Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 15, 2020, 07:39:57 AM
The weather here is quite warm, we hit 81°F yesterday, so folks can get outside.  One's kids can play in the yard etc. some of the time here.

They will whine if they can't go to Johnnie's house of course.  Will we at some point experience a trucking disruption?  

Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: MaximumSam on March 15, 2020, 07:58:30 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 14, 2020, 09:26:01 PM
I get to return to work Monday, with 980 kids and 100 staff coming back from Spring Break.  Unknown how many kids and their families traveled to California, Mexico, etc.  Unknown if they've done a damn thing to avoid getting sick. 
.
Lucky me.
Where are you that still has school?
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 15, 2020, 10:00:10 AM
We could read up on what virii actually are.

The slightly longer story is that most viruses consist of three key building blocks: ribonucleic acid (RNA), proteins and lipids. A virus-infected cell makes lots of these building blocks, which then spontaneously self-assemble to form the virus. Critically, there are no strong covalent bonds (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Covalent_bond) holding these units together, which means you do not necessarily need harsh chemicals to split those units apart. When an infected cell dies, all these new viruses escape and go on to infect other cells. Some end up also in the airways of lungs.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/12/science-soap-kills-coronavirus-alcohol-based-disinfectants?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook&linkId=84195997&fbclid=IwAR2_6AdaWEyhQlYAh6bBABGZ-RCIsgoKD6LSzQA1nGhOt413Xr2PvbrYigk (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/12/science-soap-kills-coronavirus-alcohol-based-disinfectants?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook&linkId=84195997&fbclid=IwAR2_6AdaWEyhQlYAh6bBABGZ-RCIsgoKD6LSzQA1nGhOt413Xr2PvbrYigk)
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 15, 2020, 10:04:40 AM
Soap is interesting, it was made back in the day from fat and alkali usually from wood fire ash.  The fat is saponified, something that rips off the glycerol attached to it leaving a charged end (COO-).  One end remains fatty, olephilic, and the other is charged. In water, it forms micelles, with the charged ends pointing out and the fatty parts pointing in.  Any fatty stuff in the water tends to get trapped inside the micelles.

Detergents do the same thing but are made synthetically (from oil etc.).  So, soap rips apart the lipid (fatty) component of a virus and the rest falls apart.
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: MaximumSam on March 15, 2020, 10:30:03 AM
Dewine talking about closing schools for the rest of the year
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: FearlessF on March 15, 2020, 10:38:08 AM
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on March 14, 2020, 02:04:00 PM
Take them golfing
two inches of snow Friday evening saturday morning
cooler temps

rat farts!
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: MarqHusker on March 15, 2020, 10:39:18 AM
That's the thinking around some folks in our biz.

Our BCP already has us working apart from each other through end of April.  Some other units will do this through May.  We simply cant close down no matter what,  hence some very aggressive measures.
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: MaximumSam on March 15, 2020, 01:20:17 PM
Watching the 2015 A-10 championship between Dayton and VCU. Randomly googled a guy for VCU named Mo Alie-Cox. Apparently he's a tight end for the Colts now.
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 15, 2020, 02:07:29 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 15, 2020, 10:04:40 AM
Soap is interesting, it was made back in the day from fat and alkali usually from wood fire ash.  The fat is saponified, something that rips off the glycerol attached to it leaving a charged end (COO-).  One end remains fatty, olephilic, and the other is charged. In water, it forms micelles, with the charged ends pointing out and the fatty parts pointing in.  Any fatty stuff in the water tends to get trapped inside the micelles.

Detergents do the same thing but are made synthetically (from oil etc.).  So, soap rips apart the lipid (fatty) component of a virus and the rest falls apart.
I read awhile back about lye,hard to believe how it was made from natural substances and could be so caustic.Had something to do with wood ash and water and different stages and ingrediants but I'm not dialed into to chemistry
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 15, 2020, 02:30:16 PM
Yeah, wood ash and fat was the old way of making soap, and if you got the proportions wrong you'd have caustic soap.  Ivory was different because they got a chemist to measure the alkalinity of the caustic they were buying so as to adjust the amount appropriately.  Cincinnati was a big hog slaughtering place so hog fat was cheap.  The story is that a worker went off for lunch and left the pot stirring too long and it whipped air into the soap, and people started asking for the soap that floats, confusing that with purity.  The ad claim of 99 44/100ths was one of the early advertising efforts in the US.

Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: FearlessF on March 15, 2020, 02:33:00 PM
gotta love cheap hog fat!
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 15, 2020, 02:52:24 PM
Those early chemists were really good, I think, with such limited equipment.  If you put me in one of those labs I'd be totally useless I suspect.  I imagine they could titrate for alkalinity using phenolphthalein.  
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: huskerdinie on March 15, 2020, 03:09:32 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 14, 2020, 08:02:07 PM
I use the Kindle so getting new books is easy for me. But even with Amazon prime, it's only a 1-2 day wait.

I do words with friends because nobody in real life play will scrabble with me.
Yeah, I have quite a few books myself on my Nook, but I am one of those people who prefer being able to touch the pages and the smell of books brings back wonderful memories.  Weird, I know.  E-books just don't have the same feel.  Unfortunately for me, some of the authors I like to read have not switched to e-books exclusively but will for example have the first three books of a series in paperback, the next one only as an e-book, and the next two are back to paperback again.  Irritates me to be missing a part of a continuing story and being forced in a sense to buy the e-book if I want to know what's going on.  

I have the Scrabble board game to play with my sister but I also have it on my computer so I play against the computer when I'm by myself.  When my kids were little, we played Monopoly a lot but don't have the time for long extended games anymore which kinda takes the fun out of it, lol
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: FearlessF on March 15, 2020, 03:44:25 PM
I'm watching diners
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: MaximumSam on March 15, 2020, 03:46:06 PM
Dewine ordering all bars and restaurants to close tonight
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: FearlessF on March 15, 2020, 03:47:21 PM
that sucks

take-out?

drive through service?
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: FearlessF on March 15, 2020, 03:48:11 PM
how many confirmed cases in Ohio?

any deaths?
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: MaximumSam on March 15, 2020, 03:54:25 PM
Take out and delivery still ok. 36 confirmed cases and no deaths, though chief doctor has estimated 100,000 people in state has it. 
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: MaximumSam on March 15, 2020, 03:55:55 PM
She compares this to a hurricane and these steps are necessary. Says there will be multiple Wuhans in this country
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: FearlessF on March 15, 2020, 04:06:23 PM
hope she's wrong
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 15, 2020, 04:16:09 PM
Show the kids how to cook. There is a cookbook at the top of the B1G board with recipes galore.

If the kids are old enough.. maybe they could organize said cookbook so it looks like it used to!!
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: MichiFan87 on March 15, 2020, 04:31:16 PM
I'm leaving DC tomorrow stay with my parents for the next few weeks. They just announced occupancy restrictions so it's only a matter of time before the whole city is effectively shut down. Hopefully the worst will be over by the end of the month, but I'm not getting my hopes up at this point.....
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: FearlessF on March 15, 2020, 04:31:31 PM
I pan seared a couple boneless pork loin chops and then simmered in some Bertolli tomato and basil sauce

cheap easy quick and tasty
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 15, 2020, 06:23:32 PM
I like to have sporting events on the TV during the day on the weekend. I'm often not "watching" them per se, but it's a good thing for background noise that doesn't require a lot of active attention.

There's not even any of that going on...

Although, of all things I'm sitting here watching the XFL -- I guess they are still having games because it's not a mass gathering?
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: MaximumSam on March 15, 2020, 06:27:56 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 15, 2020, 06:23:32 PM
I like to have sporting events on the TV during the day on the weekend. I'm often not "watching" them per se, but it's a good thing for background noise that doesn't require a lot of active attention.

There's not even any of that going on...

Although, of all things I'm sitting here watching the XFL -- I guess they are still having games because it's not a mass gathering?
I thought they cancelled their season
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: MaximumSam on March 15, 2020, 06:30:28 PM
I did buy a game called Dreams for PS4. Supposedly you can make your own games with it. Seemed like a worthy effort. Shakespeare wrote King Lear and I'll make a game where a bunny jumps across a bridge
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: MarqHusker on March 15, 2020, 06:39:22 PM
Indiana did finish the HS gymnastics state tournament yesterday wo spectators.  I suppose a few parents were there.
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 15, 2020, 08:09:17 PM
Play out the games yourself, with Whoa Nellie! college football board game!  :72:

https://whoanelliecollegefootball.com/ (https://whoanelliecollegefootball.com/)
.
https://www.facebook.com/Whoa-Nellie-College-Football-Board-Game-1890813767885854/?modal=admin_todo_tour (https://www.facebook.com/Whoa-Nellie-College-Football-Board-Game-1890813767885854/?modal=admin_todo_tour)
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: FearlessF on March 15, 2020, 08:51:08 PM
watching a rerun of Hee Haw on the RDF channel

Bruce Jenner playing with Hee Haw's all jug band

(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/d0/30/fd/d030fd1d82b7ec589d103f743707a0ae.jpg)
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: CWSooner on March 15, 2020, 11:22:18 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 15, 2020, 02:30:16 PM
Yeah, wood ash and fat was the old way of making soap, and if you got the proportions wrong you'd have caustic soap.  Ivory was different because they got a chemist to measure the alkalinity of the caustic they were buying so as to adjust the amount appropriately.  Cincinnati was a big hog slaughtering place so hog fat was cheap.  The story is that a worker went off for lunch and left the pot stirring too long and it whipped air into the soap, and people started asking for the soap that floats, confusing that with purity.  The ad claim of 99 44/100ths was one of the early advertising efforts in the US.
Ivory soap is good for soldiers in the field to use because it doesn't have any scent.  So the soldiers are without an artificial scent to attract bugs or to alert enemies of their presence.
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: CWSooner on March 15, 2020, 11:27:32 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 15, 2020, 08:51:08 PM
watching a rerun of Hee Haw on the RDF channel

Bruce Jenner playing with Hee Haw's all jug band

(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/d0/30/fd/d030fd1d82b7ec589d103f743707a0ae.jpg)
Is that Bruce with the gasoline can?
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: CatsbyAZ on March 15, 2020, 11:39:47 PM
As a project manager for construction out here in California, today I sent a concerning email to headquarters in Virginia questioning if they understand the liability of continuing construction projects amidst a global pandemic, National Emergency, restrictions on gatherings, expected rise in cases, etc.

Our (sub)contractors keep asking whether I plan to halt operations which HQs don’t give me the power to do (or I would). And my contractors won’t unilaterally decide for themselves because 1) their management only cares about getting paid and 2) they believe that standing down hurts their reputation for future bidding, and 3) my employer is on the hook when it comes to liability because we are the ones facilitating the environment where illness might spread.

My legal department soon responded with an email that began by barring me from discussing the details of their email.

And just a few hours ago the Governor of California announced a statewide closure of all Bars.
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 16, 2020, 12:35:58 AM
Cue the speakeasies.
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: MarqHusker on March 16, 2020, 01:35:56 AM
That's already underway.  I see some discreet discussion of this in corners of my world.   I dont need unfamiliar company for my drinking. 

We've got a tight network of a few families near us where we've agreed to help each other cover w help w kids when absences are required.   Some, not all of us can work at home, though we've all agreed to lay low, outside of what's required of us.
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 16, 2020, 09:04:18 AM
Just back from Kroger here, it is nearly all restocked except TP and most canned goods.  Busier than usual but not crazy at all, no panic buying.  I imagine the companies that make TP and paper towels are making nearly all TP right now.
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: CatsbyAZ on March 16, 2020, 08:17:04 PM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on March 15, 2020, 11:39:47 PM
As a project manager for construction out here in California, today I sent a concerning email to headquarters in Virginia questioning if they understand the liability of continuing construction projects amidst a global pandemic, National Emergency, restrictions on gatherings, expected rise in cases, etc.


Day 2 of Pandemic Construction and early this morning we received a letter on behalf of all contractors citing their concerns over potential delay, especially given the school closures conflicting with employee availability. Between the lines they’re saying two things: 1) “we don’t want to be the ones deciding whether our employees should continue working - that’s your call!” AND 2) “we’re making a case to alleviate our responsibility for potential progress delays.”

Whenever there’s a contract delay the lawyers get involved and investigate who’s to blame to determine who does and doesn’t receive continued payment.

And to top it off, two subcontractors scheduled to fly in from Seattle and Florida informed us that their new precautions will not allow them to attend our project.

Off to a good start!
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: Kris60 on March 16, 2020, 08:47:14 PM
Company has me working remotely until April 3.  I have no idea how that is going to look but I can only do so much from home.  Kids are off indefinitely at this point but do have work to keep them somewhat busy.  Wife is an administrator at a primary care clinic so her workload and stress has intensified.  Looks like the grocery shopping, cooking, and general household duties is all mine for a little while anyway.

Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: FearlessF on March 16, 2020, 09:22:26 PM
I could work from home almost as effectively as from the office.  My boss knows this.  I'll be at the office as normal unless I have a fever
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: MarqHusker on March 17, 2020, 12:36:38 AM
Some of us managers/middle managers have been talking about one of the long term (potential) impacts of this crisis, is a number of companies will come to realize or at least be able to validate that they sure don't need to have as much expensive office space.  (a question considered already I know, but now we're going to have a really good beta test).

Now, this is already happening in all kinds of industries, and WFH has become mostly acceptable in many industries, but some of the metrics on this will tell quite a story 6, 9, 12+ months down the road on this.   This will be a very interesting social experiment, among others.
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 17, 2020, 12:39:59 AM
Natural progression towards the inevitable?
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: MarqHusker on March 17, 2020, 01:49:02 AM
Another, and I'm not excited or happy about these convos, will be how crime rates and types will be impacted by this.  These conversations I've been having at a safe distance with friends and neighbors have been fascinating.  Really .  
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 17, 2020, 07:04:39 AM
We had optional "work from home" back in the day 1-2 days a week.  What many did was check their email regularly and then do whatever they wanted to do.  Of course, this is what many of them did at work, but they'd make some effort to appear to be "busy".  One guy would get up and walk at a brisk pace around the building every hour or so to "be seen".  He'd carry a notepad and look very purposeful.  He'd make a point to walk by the "Leadership Zone" several times and then go back to his office.  We had so many useless people there who basically made work for others.

Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: LetsGoPeay on March 17, 2020, 08:17:24 AM
I'm a high school administrator in East Central Indiana. We are closed until April 13 but I still have to come in every day. Starting tomorrow I will just be doing half days until the end of this thing. My kids are all at home. My oldest two are extremely frustrated. They are the two athletically inclined ones and with the schools and the Y being closed they don't really have a lot of options for basketball. Its still too cold and windy for outdoor games. 
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 17, 2020, 08:22:18 AM
Quote from: MarqHusker on March 17, 2020, 01:49:02 AM
Another, and I'm not excited or happy about these convos, will be how crime rates and types will be impacted by this.    
Bad time to get into porch pirating
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 17, 2020, 08:23:44 AM
Quote from: LetsGoPeay on March 17, 2020, 08:17:24 AM
. Its still too cold and windy for outdoor games.
Pretty sure Grouse season is over to
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 17, 2020, 08:41:49 AM
The most remarkable things about my "career" was that I spent my last 12 years doing almost nothing, and when I left, I was replaced with two people at the same pay grade.  When I first started that new assignment, for a year I kept thinking there surely was something I was supposed to be doing, but I never figured it out.  So, I posted here a lot.
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 17, 2020, 09:55:18 AM
Quote from: MarqHusker on March 17, 2020, 01:49:02 AM
Another, and I'm not excited or happy about these convos, will be how crime rates and types will be impacted by this.  These conversations I've been having at a safe distance with friends and neighbors have been fascinating.  Really . 
Our school is replacing the solar panels on the covered parking out front, and they made a huge mistake.  They left their lifts (5 or 6 of them) over the weekend and the batteries were stolen out of them.  I'm not sure if it was for the batteries themselves or a copper component or whatever, but in the ghetto, you don't leave anything overnight you still want to possess the next morning.
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 17, 2020, 10:00:13 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 17, 2020, 09:55:18 AM
Our school is replacing the solar panels on the covered parking out front, and they made a huge mistake.  They left their lifts (5 or 6 of them) over the weekend and the batteries were stolen out of them.  I'm not sure if it was for the batteries themselves or a copper component or whatever, but in the ghetto, you don't leave anything overnight you still want to possess the next morning.
So.. Who is to blame for this?

The contractor who left the items, or the criminals who stole the items?
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 17, 2020, 10:15:29 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 17, 2020, 10:00:13 AM
So.. Who is to blame for this?

The contractor who left the items, or the criminals who stole the items?
The criminals are to blame, of course...

...the contractor is certainly guilty of poor judgement, though. 
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 17, 2020, 10:23:17 AM
Kid #2 works for a large trucking company and tells me theft of wheels and tires is a big issue for them.
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 17, 2020, 10:28:23 AM
It was common practice on job sites in my teenage years that contractors often had a big "Jobox" job box containing tools, equipment, and whatnot.

When they left for the day, they would suspend the Jobox 30-40 feet off the ground using a crane, which was more than effective to secure it for the evening. 
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 17, 2020, 10:37:39 AM
These people need jobs, but that starts with parenting and education.
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: utee94 on March 17, 2020, 10:40:56 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 17, 2020, 09:55:18 AM
Our school is replacing the solar panels on the covered parking out front, and they made a huge mistake.  They left their lifts (5 or 6 of them) over the weekend and the batteries were stolen out of them.  I'm not sure if it was for the batteries themselves or a copper component or whatever, but in the ghetto, you don't leave anything overnight you still want to possess the next morning.
My grandpa was a trader out in West Texas from the 50s through the 80s, and made frequent trips into the deep interior of Mexico.  He'd go down there with tools and electronics or whatever, and come back with random things like 25' fishing boats or Mexican army surplus, and sell that stuff in the US.

(As an aside, one time he came back with his long 32' cargo trailer stacked high with steel 4x8' utility trailers.  He had driven into the US from a town on the western shores of Mexico along the Sea of Cortez, and traveled through a snow storm in New Mexico, before arriving at our house in Austin.  This was probably some time in late March, maybe Spring Break, and it was warm and sunny here.  But those trailers were all full of snow, and my entire block of neighborhood kids had a huge snowball fight.  One of our local TV stations was nearby and one of their newspeople drove by and saw it, and came back a half-hour later with a camera crew, and we made the local news that night.  That was big news in Austin, Texas in 1979, I guess.)

Anyway, stealing car batteries was a big thing in Mexico at the time, and he had a giant hasp with a massive padlock bolted to the top of his pickup truck's hood, to prevent easy theft of his truck battery.


Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 17, 2020, 10:53:19 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 17, 2020, 08:41:49 AM
The most remarkable things about my "career" was that I spent my last 12 years doing almost nothing, and when I left, I was replaced with two people at the same pay grade.  When I first started that new assignment, for a year I kept thinking there surely was something I was supposed to be doing, but I never figured it out.  So, I posted here a lot.
Hell I could moved to Cinci for a stretch - where do i apply.Fairly certain I'm as good to doing next to nothing as the next guy
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: FearlessF on March 17, 2020, 12:35:00 PM
boy howdy!
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: FearlessF on March 17, 2020, 12:36:04 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 17, 2020, 08:23:44 AM
Pretty sure Grouse season is over to
(https://contestimg.wish.com/api/webimage/5bdc1ad64382453a9e2ac337-large.jpg?cache_buster=1cdd951ee10521d64ee905c4bff5fcf4)
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 17, 2020, 12:59:51 PM
https://www.wired.com/story/fda-approves-the-first-commercial-coronavirus-tests-in-the-us/?mbid=social_facebook&utm_brand=wired&utm_medium=social&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1ld6tlIjurmPqgkyWbtoWaa0qE2kXNDISY32rOailvxmqA7WbHNufMwzE (https://www.wired.com/story/fda-approves-the-first-commercial-coronavirus-tests-in-the-us/?mbid=social_facebook&utm_brand=wired&utm_medium=social&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1ld6tlIjurmPqgkyWbtoWaa0qE2kXNDISY32rOailvxmqA7WbHNufMwzE)

Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: MaximumSam on March 17, 2020, 01:15:52 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 17, 2020, 12:36:04 PM
(https://contestimg.wish.com/api/webimage/5bdc1ad64382453a9e2ac337-large.jpg?cache_buster=1cdd951ee10521d64ee905c4bff5fcf4)
Nice I went there when I was in Scotland
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: FearlessF on March 17, 2020, 01:19:56 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 17, 2020, 12:59:51 PM
https://www.wired.com/story/fda-approves-the-first-commercial-coronavirus-tests-in-the-us/?mbid=social_facebook&utm_brand=wired&utm_medium=social&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1ld6tlIjurmPqgkyWbtoWaa0qE2kXNDISY32rOailvxmqA7WbHNufMwzE (https://www.wired.com/story/fda-approves-the-first-commercial-coronavirus-tests-in-the-us/?mbid=social_facebook&utm_brand=wired&utm_medium=social&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1ld6tlIjurmPqgkyWbtoWaa0qE2kXNDISY32rOailvxmqA7WbHNufMwzE)


so the previous tests were not commercial?
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 17, 2020, 01:52:15 PM
Obviously not.
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: FearlessF on March 17, 2020, 01:58:28 PM
Daughter hear at home just learned she's out of work at the Olive Garden

Governor has shut down everything

guess I'll be eating and drinking at home - easy for me

not good for my daughter, but she's lucky, doesn't pay much for rent and her grocery bill isn't bad.
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 17, 2020, 02:00:29 PM
Apparently Orange County is about to release some sort of health order shutting down all dine-in establishments. Take-out and delivery only. 

I logged into a live stream of the board of supervisors meeting this morning, but late, so I don't know if it's more expansive as in the Bay Area, or only restaurants/bars/etc.
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: Hawkinole on March 17, 2020, 02:05:58 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 17, 2020, 01:58:28 PM
Daughter hear at home just learned she's out of work at the Olive Garden

Governor has shut down everything

guess I'll be eating and drinking at home - easy for me

not good for my daughter, but she's lucky, doesn't pay much for rent and her grocery bill isn't bad.
Everything means, bars, restaurants, schools, gyms, theaters, and casinos. Our courthouse is still open, but courthouses in two adjacent counties are closed. Carry out and delivery remain available.

My daughter works at a grocery store. In Iowa grocery stores are packed with people. Initially, because school was shutdown yesterday, and now with the bars and restaurants closed even more people will be congregating in grocery stores. She is home for spring break so fortunately is not working this week. Grocery stores will be a place of potential spread unless they do as they do in Italy and limit the #s of people inside the store at one time.

With only 23 cases confirmed in Iowa, and very limited testing, I am guessing the government has more information than it is giving. I suspect there have been a lot of negative tests for influenza at times COVID-19 wasn't being tested. Just a guess.
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 17, 2020, 02:33:58 PM
I just got laid off until this all blows over. Sucks, but I sorta saw it coming. I make helmet decals, and no one is playing sports; nor are any schools open, and they are the bulk of our customer base obviously. 
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 17, 2020, 02:35:55 PM
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on March 17, 2020, 02:33:58 PM
I just got laid off until this all blows over. Sucks, but I sorta saw it coming. I make helmet decals, and no one is playing sports; nor are any schools open, and they are the bulk of our customer base obviously.
Sorry to hear that, man. Good luck. 
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 17, 2020, 02:58:42 PM
Good luck B.B.

We're getting takeout tonight, to help support the locals. Pick up at the curb.
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: huskerdinie on March 17, 2020, 04:16:37 PM
Fairly quiet here in Lincoln.  I am retired, so no work problem for me.  Husband works at a truck stop and as of today, no plans to shut down the restaurant part, so he is still going in to work.  My son works as a security guard for a company here in Lincoln and probably 99% of employees I think are working from home, so he sits at his desk and plays games all day, lol.  I think he said it's pretty much him and the receptionist who are actually physically there.  

Went to both Wal-Mart and Hy-Vee today and had no problems stocking up my grocery list for the next couple of weeks.  Of course, the only thing I couldn't get was TP but Hy-Vee said hopefully would get more in tonight (fingers crossed).  

We went out yesterday and bought our new car and the salesman was very accommodating, offering wipes / hand sanitizers.  So far, most people I have interacted with have been very nonchalant and as friendly as ever, just eliminating handshakes and doing elbow bumps instead.  No one was obnoxious and while we maintained a fair distance from one another when possible, there were no overt acts of aggression.  Most people were pretty calm and it really felt like just any other day at the grocery store. 

My daughter in Kentucky said today was the first day of homeschooling.  I am glad I gave her our family heirloom table which, when all six leaves are in, can seat 22 people.  Plenty of room for the kids to spread out homework.  She says most of her kids have had sinus colds so she is staying close to home and her husband (who works at a brewery) is doing all the errand running and shopping.  

Family members in South Dakota and Wyoming all seem to be doing well. My uncle who lives in NJ was planning on coming down for the internment of Mom's ashes, but was hesitant to do so.  Probably couldn't fly anyway.  So, that has been postponed for another month or so.  Luckily, it is only family who will be there, so not too many schedules to juggle, since all four of us kids are retired / semi-retired.  

Hope all of you living in more infected areas stay safe and healthy.  This too shall pass.  
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 17, 2020, 04:19:49 PM
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on March 17, 2020, 02:33:58 PM
I just got laid off until this all blows over. Sucks, but I sorta saw it coming. I make helmet decals, and no one is playing sports; nor are any schools open, and they are the bulk of our customer base obviously.
Sign up for unemployment you've earned and paid into it - good luck.Of course now that is prolly electronically tabulated.Back when I 1st got walking papers you had to hoof it and sign up at the local state office
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: utee94 on March 17, 2020, 04:37:22 PM
Yes my condolences to all who are already being affected financially, this is going to be tough.  I'm fortunate enough to be able to work from home 100%, I already did probably 95% of the time and my team is distributed nationally so no worries there.

My i s c & a aggie wife is a physical therapist and her clinic has closed its doors for the next 3 weeks, and I believe it'll likely be longer.  She will not be paid during the shutdown.  We could use her vacation time and personal business allowance, but we're  fine without it, for now.  We'll save it for later in the year if/when things get worse around here.

Like many other places, restaurants and bars are shut-down in Austin, Houston, and Dallas as of today, excluding take-out.  

Y'all hang in there!
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 17, 2020, 04:41:59 PM
Send some Tito's and I'll promise to make an effort
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 17, 2020, 04:54:34 PM
Phoenix has shut down all restaurants and bars, etc.  I got sent home for 2 weeks, but I'd be surprised if that isn't extended later.  
The big plus is that our classified staff (non-teachers) are still getting paid - ordinarily, they're the ones who get screwed in times like this.
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 17, 2020, 05:03:21 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 17, 2020, 04:54:34 PM
Phoenix has shut down all restaurants and bars, etc.  I got sent home for 2 weeks, but I'd be surprised if that isn't extended later. 
The big plus is that our classified staff (non-teachers) are still getting paid - ordinarily, they're the ones who get screwed in times like this.
Yeah, for my kids the charter school came out a day before the public schools and said they were shutting down through the end of Spring Break (4 weeks).

The public school said they're closing down for 2 weeks, with an option to add a 3rd... Which would then add another week taking them through Spring Break as well for 4 weeks.

They haven't yet said they're adding the 3rd week, but we all know it's going to happen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on March 17, 2020, 05:47:19 PM
I just learned from a factory worker that one of our town's major employers, Henderson Products, Inc. (Makes dump bodies, road salt spreaders, and snow plows), is closing for two weeks. Its parent company had a confirmed COVID-19 dx, but at a plant in another state. I haven't heard how they made the decision to close the manufacturing plant here.

This is taking such a big bite out of GDP. It is worrisome financially. It will take a long time for our country to recover.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 17, 2020, 06:30:12 PM
I think we will see recovery begin by June or so. GDP will be down this year, but the economy doesn't have any fundamental flaws. We need to stay strong, optimistic and vigilant. This shall pass.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on March 17, 2020, 06:48:46 PM
This is surreal to me on several levels.  

First, driving through my normally bustling downtown business district and seeing almost no parked cars with just a few parked at the new makeshift curbside pick-up points in front of what were busy restaurants a few days ago is just surreal.  

Second, the speed at which this went from seeming like a problem mostly abroad and probably not that big of a deal into massive shut-downs is just astounding:


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 17, 2020, 06:51:00 PM
Yep, it's F'd up.

I need a haircut!! My hair hasn't been more than 1/2" long since I don't remember. I look like the Shaggy D.A.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 17, 2020, 06:53:18 PM
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on March 17, 2020, 06:48:46 PM
This is surreal to me on several levels. 

First, driving through my normally bustling downtown business district and seeing almost no parked cars with just a few parked at the new makeshift curbside pick-up points in front of what were busy restaurants a few days ago is just surreal. 
Well, all I can say is get your grocery shopping done, i.e. get enough shelf-stable foods (pasta, canned goods, frozen items) to cover yourself for ~2 weeks before everyone else does.

Here on the west coast it got surreal last week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 17, 2020, 07:02:33 PM
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on March 17, 2020, 06:48:46 PM
This is surreal to me on several levels. 
  •  
  • Thursday morning (3/12) things were sounding ominous but still proceeding.  The Michigan and Rutgers BB squads were actually on the court doing warmups for their noon game and I was looking forward to watching tOSU/PU when I got home from work. 
  • Then the world blew up.  They cancelled the BTT just before tip-off of the M/RU game.  Within a rapid succession after that the NCAA Tournament was cancelled, then Bars and Restaurants were ordered to shut down and now we are living in this weird ghost-town. 


thank God this didn't blow up during football season
and pray to God that this is over enough for football to start up and run almost normally in Sept
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 17, 2020, 08:14:40 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 17, 2020, 04:19:49 PM
Sign up for unemployment you've earned and paid into it - good luck.Of course now that is prolly electronically tabulated.Back when I 1st got walking papers you had to hoof it and sign up at the local state office
told both daughters to get in line early
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 17, 2020, 08:20:22 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 17, 2020, 02:58:42 PM
Good luck B.B.

We're getting takeout tonight, to help support the locals. Pick up at the curb.
I stopped by the brewery, took out a 32 oz and a growler

left a hefty tip
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 17, 2020, 08:25:25 PM
Quote from: huskerdinie on March 17, 2020, 04:16:37 PM
Fairly quiet here in Lincoln.  I am retired, so no work problem for me.  Husband works at a truck stop and as of today, no plans to shut down the restaurant part, so he is still going in to work.  My son works as a security guard for a company here in Lincoln and probably 99% of employees I think are working from home, so he sits at his desk and plays games all day, lol.  I think he said it's pretty much him and the receptionist who are actually physically there. 

truck stop restaurants are exempt?  cool
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 17, 2020, 08:38:07 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 17, 2020, 06:30:12 PM
I think we will see recovery begin by June or so. GDP will be down this year, but the economy doesn't have any fundamental flaws. We need to stay strong, optimistic and vigilant. This shall pass.
Amen.   Being in banking- we feel it is our responsibility to do whatever it takes to keep the framework strong.  Low interest loans (no interest in some cases), forgiven late payments with no credit reporting, skip a payment on auto, home and other loans.   Plus- working nearly round the clock to ensure atms are filled, clean and functional, call center is staffed and digital banking remains in compromised. On top of that many of our employees are volunteering to help with things like day care, shopping for the elderly and other things.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 17, 2020, 08:46:50 PM
I'm as financially savvy as a 2 year-old, but with a 0% interest rate, why shouldn't I borrow a million bucks and just spend the rest of my life paying it back, bit-by-bit?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 17, 2020, 08:49:13 PM
Just because the Fed reduces rates to near 0% for short term loans to member banks doesn't mean any of us can get a loan at that rate, with no collateral, or even with.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 17, 2020, 08:49:46 PM
Some of the EU country bonds are paying negative interest right now.  We might see that here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on March 17, 2020, 08:52:02 PM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on March 16, 2020, 08:17:04 PM

And to top it off, two subcontractors scheduled to fly in from Seattle and Florida informed us that their new precautions will not allow them to attend our project.


A missing piece of information in all this is that construction is funded by federal money. As of today four personnel have tested positive on the base of probably 12,000 where were working. From a statistical standpoint it’s an inevitability that I’ll be exposed to COVID-19 given the high interaction required on construction sites.

I’ve raised the red flag over liability to HQs via several emails and their stance is “Mission First Mission First.” 

Anyone got any advice when it comes to what I can do to legally represent myself if I get sick? I’d rather for those I answer to have to hear it from a lawyer rather than me personally.
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: FearlessF on March 17, 2020, 08:58:34 PM
I will be receiving a refund on my spring game tickets

on the bright side, it frees me up to play a two day tournament at my home golf course
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 17, 2020, 09:00:29 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 17, 2020, 08:46:50 PM
I'm as financially savvy as a 2 year-old, but with a 0% interest rate, why shouldn't I borrow a million bucks and just spend the rest of my life paying it back, bit-by-bit?
Because nobody would give it to you without an 820?


Seriously. To get that kind of credit, you need history. Lots and lots of history.



I'll be at my bank tomorrow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 17, 2020, 09:08:30 PM
I spoke with my financial advisor this afternoon

moved some things around

will max my Roth account this year
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 17, 2020, 09:19:13 PM
Yeah, well, for people who are able, they're all going to take advantage of this, or should.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 17, 2020, 09:26:27 PM
Of course. Why not?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 17, 2020, 09:28:06 PM
I'm not looking to take on debt, even at 0%

it will cost you something upfront

not sure what I'd purchase that will be assured to gain value over the next few months or even years
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 17, 2020, 09:40:41 PM
Kegerator
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 17, 2020, 09:45:24 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 17, 2020, 09:26:27 PM
Of course. Why not?
Serious question,would you buy Corona stock - gotta be heading down and out.Thinking the preppies will return to it when everyone comes out to play
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 17, 2020, 09:47:16 PM
buying Amazon and internet stocks and medical stocks

well that's what my guy said he bought for me before the market closed this afternoon
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on March 17, 2020, 10:53:18 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 17, 2020, 04:54:34 PM
Phoenix has shut down all restaurants and bars, etc.  I got sent home for 2 weeks, but I'd be surprised if that isn't extended later. 
The big plus is that our classified staff (non-teachers) are still getting paid - ordinarily, they're the ones who get screwed in times like this.
Our non-teachers are also going to be paid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on March 17, 2020, 10:57:13 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 17, 2020, 06:51:00 PM
Yep, it's F'd up.

I need a haircut!! My hair hasn't been more than 1/2" long since I don't remember. I look like the Shaggy D.A.
Would Mrs. Badge cut your hair if you got her some clippers?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on March 17, 2020, 10:59:47 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 17, 2020, 08:49:46 PM
Some of the EU country bonds are paying negative interest right now.  We might see that here.
Why would anyone buy bonds at a negative interest rate rather than just putting the money in a savings account, or even in a cookie jar?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on March 18, 2020, 07:11:13 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 17, 2020, 09:40:41 PM
Kegerator
LOL wish I had one - my buddy's friend's bar has like 10 kegs of green beer they can't do anything with
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2020, 08:56:07 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on March 17, 2020, 10:57:13 PM
Would Mrs. Badge cut your hair if you got her some clippers?
Nah. She wants me to grow it long.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2020, 09:20:56 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 17, 2020, 09:45:24 PM
Serious question,would you buy Corona stock - gotta be heading down and out.Thinking the preppies will return to it when everyone comes out to play
Will probably head even lower for a while? Some are recommending it as a buy.

Sounds like BUD (Anheuser-Busch makes Corona) has a lot of debt, which is a problem, but they are addressing it, which is good.
Title: Re: Quarantine Entertainment
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on March 18, 2020, 09:55:53 AM
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on March 17, 2020, 02:33:58 PM
I just got laid off until this all blows over. Sucks, but I sorta saw it coming. I make helmet decals, and no one is playing sports; nor are any schools open, and they are the bulk of our customer base obviously.
Sad to hear, good luck!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 18, 2020, 10:01:54 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on March 18, 2020, 07:11:13 AM
LOL wish I had one - my buddy's friend's bar has like 10 kegs of green beer they can't do anything with
I can think of something
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: TyphonInc on March 18, 2020, 11:16:12 AM
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on March 17, 2020, 02:33:58 PM
I just got laid off until this all blows over. Sucks, but I sorta saw it coming. I make helmet decals, and no one is playing sports; nor are any schools open, and they are the bulk of our customer base obviously.

Condolences. Are things going to be ok during this time? Are you local to Columbus? If you could use more than an encouraging word send me a PM.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2020, 11:26:03 AM
Yeah, I'm not in Columbus but I know this board will come together to help one another.

Anyone... let us know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 18, 2020, 12:17:04 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2020, 11:26:03 AM
Yeah, I'm not in Columbus but I know this board will come together to help one another.

Anyone... let us know.
Ditto 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 18, 2020, 01:12:20 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2020, 11:26:03 AM
Yeah, I'm not in Columbus but I know this board will come together to help one another.

Anyone... let us know.
I could use a platter of Utee's enchiladas 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 18, 2020, 01:18:38 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 18, 2020, 01:12:20 PM
I could use a platter of Utee's enchiladas
I took @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) 's instructions and put them in a word document, and saved it as a PDF. See attached.

I don't suppose you expect we'll actually cook them for you, right? :57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: huskerdinie on March 18, 2020, 01:36:02 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 17, 2020, 08:25:25 PM
truck stop restaurants are exempt?  cool
The restaurant may still close, but the truck stop itself has to stay open; I think there might be plans to have the restaurant staff be available for some type of pick up orders for the truckers; who knows it's all wait and see at this point. Whatever we gotta do to keep the supply lines open because God knows we all need what the truckers deliver.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Drew4UTk on March 18, 2020, 01:51:22 PM
after hurricane florance and a huge number of people losing their homes in my region, many kids went back to school without basic needs being met at home... 

some rich person local to the area did something nobody anticipated- and did it anonymously.  they donated 'free meals' for kids for the rest of the year.... they picked up the tab for all school kids.  that is no small 'donation'.  the idea was that kids get fed and parents can apply that money, however small (but more valued by some than others) where it was needed. 

since then, there has been several organizations stand up and do the same thing.  kids still pay for 'snacks' at school, but they don't pay for primary meals, which includes breakfasts. 

as mentioned elsewhere on the site today, buses are running twice a day still.... this is fantastic... no kids go to school, but those bus's run and bring both breakfast and lunch to kids.  all the kid has to do is be standing at the regular bus stop to get them...... courtesy a 'wealthy donor'.... which prompted many others to join in. 

I freakin' LOVE America.  We talk smack and have our differences, but we stand together and are one hellacious force to be reckoned with in times like these. 
Title: fun with ArcGIS and this thing
Post by: Drew4UTk on March 18, 2020, 02:26:56 PM
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

almost live tracking of the virus... you can drill down to your neighborhood. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 18, 2020, 02:46:31 PM
Our district is doing the same, at the district's expense.  We've had about 3 different plans since Saturday, and with news that they're likely calling for the cancellation of the rest of the school year, the plan is going to change again. 

I absolutely can't complain, though, as we're getting paid regardless.  The "we're all coming together" part that's beautiful is the paying of the hourly classified staff. 

I am going to need some TP soon....down to a roll and a half.  I guess I could just eat less.  The last grocery trip I took, I found myself tossing out my dietary restrictions and just looking for high-calorie stuff.  That was the panic creeping in.  On the plus side, I'm enjoying foods I haven't had in 8 months, lol.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Drew4UTk on March 18, 2020, 02:53:42 PM
More fun reading:

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on March 18, 2020, 03:04:10 PM
Testing is way too restrictive. These are the testing restrictions in Iowa.

Please DO NOT send samples to the State Hygienic Laboratory if they do not meet these criteria:
Iowa State Hygienic Lab Testing Resrictions for COVID-19 (http://shl.uiowa.edu/dcd/covid19.xml)


The restrictive testing is damaging the economy, and risks health and safety.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 18, 2020, 03:09:10 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 18, 2020, 01:18:38 PM
I took @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) 's instructions and put them in a word document, and saved it as a PDF. See attached.

I don't suppose you expect we'll actually cook them for you, right? :57:
Slacker
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 18, 2020, 03:18:30 PM
THey had an advisor from the county board of health interrupting my favorite radio program.Saying that when/if purchasing frozen goods that the boxes should be wiped down with a disinfectant then hands washed.Gotta say i never thought of that considering all the frozen pizzas I've wolfed down.looked in the freezer there were enchiladas,burgers,dogs,etc.I know freezing itself can kill many germs 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Drew4UTk on March 18, 2020, 03:23:10 PM
you fellers in colder climates need to find a good Sauna and get it... three or four times a day go in that thing and breathe deeply.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 18, 2020, 03:26:54 PM
I was thinking of joining the local polar bear club.Wouldn't virus/germs multipy under warmer conditions?As a precaution I'm applying Mr Beam's Elixir
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 18, 2020, 03:31:22 PM
Quote from: Hawkinole on March 18, 2020, 03:04:10 PM
Testing is way too restrictive. These are the testing restrictions in Iowa.

The restrictive testing is damaging the economy, and risks health and safety.
Part of this is limits on available tests. Yesterday morning I was tipped off to a live stream of the Orange County Board of Supervisors who were discussing the [now released] health order basically shutting everything except essential services down. 

One of the things that they were talking about is that they'd only tested 300 people in Orange County--and furthermore, they only had a little over 1,000 test kits available for testing more people. This is in a county of >3M people. 

I think the testing restrictions aren't because they don't want to test these people, it's because they're trying to ration very few test kits to the most necessary cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Drew4UTk on March 18, 2020, 03:34:57 PM
supposedly this one is vulnerable to temperatures above 110* which is why some are recommending a lot of outside time in the sunshine and getting those lungs working... or inhaling warm air deeply several times a day... bringing the nasal and sinus cavities temperature up in effort to kill it.  

who the frick knows what's a fact and not.... 

i'm considering using my electronic footprint to start a rumor that women being naked and men looking at naked women cures this after ten full fifteen minute sessions. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 18, 2020, 03:44:03 PM
Quote from: Drew4UTk on March 18, 2020, 03:34:57 PM
i'm considering using my electronic footprint to start a rumor that women being naked and men looking at naked women cures this after ten full fifteen minute sessions.
If they really cared they would move forward with these scientific findings.Feels good to headline the news
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on March 18, 2020, 04:00:30 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 18, 2020, 03:31:22 PM
Part of this is limits on available tests. Yesterday morning I was tipped off to a live stream of the Orange County Board of Supervisors who were discussing the [now released] health order basically shutting everything except essential services down.

One of the things that they were talking about is that they'd only tested 300 people in Orange County--and furthermore, they only had a little over 1,000 test kits available for testing more people. This is in a county of >3M people.

I think the testing restrictions aren't because they don't want to test these people, it's because they're trying to ration very few test kits to the most necessary cases.
I understand the reasons for rationing tests, but had we gotten out front on testing, we would be better targeted in our responses to the pandemic, which I think we can have almost universal agreement.

I want to know if this is spreading in rural Iowa. If it is, I can tell you that with all the people flocking to Fareway and Hy-Vee,  those places would be a cesspool for spread of COVID-19. There are no limits on the number of people congregating in grocery stores.  I suspect by the end of the week there will be security at the entrance to grocery stores limiting the # who can be inside at any one time.

If it is not spreading in rural Iowa, it would help calm things down a bit. And we could open things up a bit more; we should not be closing factories if it is not spreading here. We should restrict travel outside each county to essential travel.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 18, 2020, 04:22:07 PM
Agreed. The ball was clearly dropped on testing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2020, 05:08:48 PM
Yesterday, the governor of our state allowed elections to happen. I have no idea why, since he closed schools, bars, restaurants, gyms, etc. But, they happened. Decent turnout, all things considered, but it was a shit show. No hand sanitizer or wipes at many polling places. Machines right on top of each other. Just a complete cluster, and he owns it.

So, we'll probably see spread here.

It was the first time I haven't voted in an election in 35 years, before I was allowed to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 18, 2020, 05:21:02 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2020, 05:08:48 PM
Yesterday, the governor of our state allowed elections to happen. I have no idea why, since he closed schools, bars, restaurants, gyms, etc. But, they happened. Decent turnout, all things considered, but it was a shit show. No hand sanitizer or wipes at many polling places. Machines right on top of each other. Just a complete cluster, and he owns it.

So, we'll probably see spread here.

It was the first time I haven't voted in an election in 35 years, before I was allowed to.
I'm a permanent vote-by-mail participant. 

I did that after literally two Presidential elections in a row (2008/2012) I happened to be traveling for work on election day and couldn't vote. 

And vote-by-mail doesn't spread any germs lol :72:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MichiFan87 on March 18, 2020, 06:07:08 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 18, 2020, 05:21:02 PM
I'm a permanent vote-by-mail participant.

I did that after literally two Presidential elections in a row (2008/2012) I happened to be traveling for work on election day and couldn't vote.

And vote-by-mail doesn't spread any germs lol :72:
Better yet make online voting widely adopted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 18, 2020, 06:19:36 PM
Quote from: Hawkinole on March 18, 2020, 03:04:10 PM
Testing is way too restrictive. These are the testing restrictions in Iowa.

Please DO NOT send samples to the State Hygienic Laboratory if they do not meet these criteria:
  • Hospitalized patient with fever and respiratory failure and no alternate diagnosis
  • Hospitalized older adult (> 60 years of age) with fever or respiratory symptoms (e.g., cough, difficulty breathing) and chronic medical conditions (e.g., diabetes, heart disease, immunosuppressive medications, chronic lung disease, or chronic kidney disease)
  • Any person (including healthcare providers) with household contact with a laboratory confirmed case of COVID-19 in the 14 days prior to becoming ill with fever or respiratory symptoms (e.g., cough, difficulty breathing)
  • Any person with a history of international travel to a country with a Level 3 CDC travel health warning (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/index.html (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/index.html)) or has taken an international cruise in the 14 days prior to becoming ill with fever and respiratory symptoms (e.g., cough, difficulty breathing) and no alternate diagnosis
Iowa State Hygienic Lab Testing Resrictions for COVID-19 (http://shl.uiowa.edu/dcd/covid19.xml)


The restrictive testing is damaging the economy, and risks health and safety.


I assume this is because there are not enough tests for anyone that simply wants a test.  Hopefully this will resolve itself soon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 18, 2020, 06:26:19 PM
Quote from: Hawkinole on March 18, 2020, 03:04:10 PM
Testing is way too restrictive. These are the testing restrictions in Iowa.

The restrictive testing is damaging the economy, and risks health and safety.


Woodbury County Heath Dept addressed this restricted testing this morning.
They would not say how many tests had been administered or how many tests were available, but with these restrictions ALL tests had come back negative.

Perhaps only 3 folks have been tested, but it's still good news
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on March 18, 2020, 06:26:55 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2020, 05:08:48 PM
Yesterday, the governor of our state allowed elections to happen. I have no idea why, since he closed schools, bars, restaurants, gyms, etc. But, they happened. Decent turnout, all things considered, but it was a shit show. No hand sanitizer or wipes at many polling places. Machines right on top of each other. Just a complete cluster, and he owns it.

So, we'll probably see spread here.

It was the first time I haven't voted in an election in 35 years, before I was allowed to.
In an A-political way, that was deeply foolish and shame on him. Terrible. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 18, 2020, 06:28:37 PM
Quote from: Drew4UTk on March 18, 2020, 03:34:57 PM
supposedly this one is vulnerable to temperatures above 110* which is why some are recommending a lot of outside time in the sunshine and getting those lungs working... or inhaling warm air deeply several times a day... bringing the nasal and sinus cavities temperature up in effort to kill it. 

I'm not a doctor, but it would seem to me that if the virus made it into my lungs, it would be too late
perhaps you could lessen the symptoms?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: huskerdinie on March 18, 2020, 07:15:53 PM
Quote from: huskerdinie on March 18, 2020, 01:36:02 PM
The restaurant may still close, but the truck stop itself has to stay open; I think there might be plans to have the restaurant staff be available for some type of pick up orders for the truckers; who knows it's all wait and see at this point. Whatever we gotta do to keep the supply lines open because God knows we all need what the truckers deliver. 
My husband's boss called this afternoon; they are going to strictly take-out orders and while they may have to cut some hours, the plan right now is to take advantage of closing the dine-in areas and doing a deep clean from ceilings to floors which will also have the benefit of giving workers the opportunity to maintain close to their regular hours and avoid being laid off.  They may have to apply for partial unemployment but at least they will still have a job.  I'll be curious to hear how it all went today when my hubby gets home.   
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: FearlessF on March 18, 2020, 07:53:40 PM
[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]Nebraska is listed among six Big Ten teams [/color]hurt the most (https://saturdaytradition.com/big-ten-football/the-b1g-teams-that-will-be-hurt-most-by-the-loss-of-spring-practice/)[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)] by the loss of spring drills.[/color]
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 18, 2020, 08:00:37 PM
Quote from: Drew4UTk on March 18, 2020, 03:34:57 PM
supposedly this one is vulnerable to temperatures above 110* which is why some are recommending a lot of outside time in the sunshine and getting those lungs working... or inhaling warm air deeply several times a day... bringing the nasal and sinus cavities temperature up in effort to kill it. 

who the frick knows what's a fact and not....

i'm considering using my electronic footprint to start a rumor that women being naked and men looking at naked women cures this after ten full fifteen minute sessions.


If the air in your lungs was that hot, you'd be hospitalized.  
Even when you exhale as much as you can, your lungs still have plenty of air to cool very warm air you're breathing back in.  It's a fantasy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2020, 08:10:10 PM
My gym, with the steam room, is now closed. Good idea, but, nope.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Razorchique on March 18, 2020, 08:11:43 PM
I play this ridiculous online multiplayer game and have for about four years.  It's called Grepolis.  You take cities from people.  And it's real time.  So unless you're crazy enough to like to be woken up in the middle of the night with attack alarms, I don't suggest it....but it does pass the time.  And I highly doubt my job will close.  My office has three people in it on the top floor, so unless the government makes us shut down, my boss will always find something for us to do.

For the rest of you, stay safe and well.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2020, 08:13:41 PM
Quote from: Razorchique on March 18, 2020, 08:11:43 PM
I play this ridiculous online multiplayer game and have for about four years.  It's called Grepolis.  You take cities from people.  And it's real time.  So unless you're crazy enough to like to be woken up in the middle of the night with attack alarms, I don't suggest it....but it does pass the time.  And I highly doubt my job will close.  My office has three people in it on the top floor, so unless the government makes us shut down, my boss will always find something for us to do.

For the rest of you, stay safe and well. 
Hi!!

Mrs. 847 retired yesterday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Razorchique on March 18, 2020, 08:14:28 PM
Hi Sweetie!  I'm happy for her.  Give her my congrats and a hug from me.  Miss you, Badge.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2020, 08:48:20 PM
Quote from: Razorchique on March 18, 2020, 08:14:28 PM
Hi Sweetie!  I'm happy for her.  Give her my congrats and a hug from me.  Miss you, Badge.
Me too. If you're up for a call tomorrow, let us know. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 18, 2020, 08:52:05 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2020, 08:13:41 PM
Mrs. 847 retired yesterday.
Corngrats to her

I'd guess you are now in more trouble than usual! ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 18, 2020, 08:55:50 PM
gas price dropped to $1.65 here today
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2020, 09:06:38 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 18, 2020, 08:55:50 PM
gas price dropped to $1.65 here today
What is 93 octane?

Asking for a friend...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 18, 2020, 09:18:34 PM
SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (AP) — South Dakota's public health lab has halted testing for the coronavirus due to a shortage of supplies, Gov. Kristi Noem said Wednesday.

Noem said the lab had been expecting a shipment of supplies earlier this week, but that it was canceled due to a nationwide shortage of enzymes and reagents, which are used for chemical analysis.

The governor said she hoped the lab would be supplied later on Wednesday, though the state's Department of Health said earlier that there was “no time frame” for when tests would be available. It last ran tests for medium- and high-risk patients on Monday. There are 350 tests pending at the lab.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 18, 2020, 09:26:30 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2020, 09:06:38 PM
What is 93 octane?

Asking for a friend...
$2.20
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2020, 09:29:24 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 18, 2020, 09:26:30 PM
$2.20
Our price is $3.25. Big taxes in (D) Illannoy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 18, 2020, 09:33:53 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 18, 2020, 05:21:02 PM
And vote-by-mail doesn't spread any germs lol :72:
For you,it may suck on the other end
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 18, 2020, 09:47:47 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2020, 09:29:24 PM
Our price is $3.25. Big taxes in (D) Illannoy.
nice place to visit for a boat ride, baseball game, and an Italian Beef sammich
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on March 18, 2020, 10:04:28 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2020, 09:29:24 PM
Our price is $3.25. Big taxes in (D) Illannoy.
Damn.   I'm right next door Badge and its $2.60ish.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on March 18, 2020, 11:15:58 PM
E-10 in NE Iowa on 3/18/20 was 1.81.9
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2020, 06:32:30 AM
Costco here had regular under $2 last week, premium was $2.28 as I recall.  The wife wants to go there this morning for some reason, almond "milk" or something.  I'll probably top off the tank.  It'll be interesting to see how busy it is.  They experienced some panic buying last week.

Kudus to the local Kroger for managing restocking as well as they have.  I think that can help calm nerves.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2020, 07:40:12 AM
There is a lot of construction going on near me and it appears to be continuing apace.  Most of the folks I see out walking are construction workers, and joggers, and folks with dogs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on March 19, 2020, 08:20:00 AM
Governor in WV ordered all gyms and health clubs closed down for two weeks.  That’s a real bummer for me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on March 19, 2020, 08:37:13 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 19, 2020, 07:40:12 AM
There is a lot of construction going on near me and it appears to be continuing apace.  Most of the folks I see out walking are construction workers, and joggers, and folks with dogs.
Bricklayers have been busy next door all week.  If it wasn't for construction buzz it would be all runners, walkers and dogs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 19, 2020, 10:17:06 AM
Quote from: Kris60 on March 19, 2020, 08:20:00 AM
Governor in WV ordered all gyms and health clubs closed down for two weeks.  That’s a real bummer for me.
push ups and sit ups and squats

lack of ladies in spandex, but..............
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 19, 2020, 10:20:18 AM
I'm going to the grocery store after work, after I visit the financial planner

buddy says the meat counters are bare, so I called my favorite locker about 40 miles away - they know me by name - ordered 8 fresh cut rib eyes.

https://tqmeats.com/ (https://tqmeats.com/)

Might pick them up Saturday morning since I can't go to the usual bar for a schooner
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 19, 2020, 10:31:36 AM
Went for a Costco run last night, and it wasn't particularly crazy, but it wasn't particularly well-stocked either. Plenty of beer and wine though ;-)

The big annoyance was a complete lack of meat. All the chicken (we hadn't planned on buying any due to my wife's allergy) and all the pork were gone, including things like pork belly that most people don't know how to cook. All the "mainstream" beef was gone too. All that was left were things like prime tri-tip and high-dollar steaks. 

We weren't trying to hoard, but needed a package of ground beef, a package of pork tenderloin, and some chuck roast. That was a no-go, and we asked the cashier, who said they restock in the mornings. So I might go back around midday Friday and see if I can get what I need.

Other than that, most things were ok. Produce was there, their prepared [heat at home] meals were well-stocked, and while many frozen items were low-stocked, they were there. We often buy their frozen fish (individually vacuum-sealed filets in 2- or 3-lb bags), so we got some mahi and a bag of frozen shrimp.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2020, 11:03:24 AM
Just back from Costco, they were fully stocked, a bit crowded but managing well.  They had TP that everyone I saw picked up but us.

It was going fast, they had a stack in front of the store.

Premium gas was $1.88.  Premium.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: TyphonInc on March 19, 2020, 11:30:19 AM
I wouldn't call myself a prepper/hoarder. But...

I do have in our basement a pantry of non-perishables. I had no idea that TP would be the panic item of choice. I've been calling this day 6 of lock-down and I've been to 7 stores since lock-down started. The first 6 stores had no TP, yesterday I went to Kroger as they opened at 7am, they had 3 pallets right by the registers, I grabbed 3 packs (1 for upstairs, 1 for downstairs, and 1 for the Prepper Pantry! (I'm not a prepper I swear.) 


(My prepper rules in case anyone cares)  
1) Must be food that we already eat.
2) Shelf life of 6 months or more. (I do Rotate older basements items with new purchases.)
3) Doesn't need to be cooked.

Some of the people we know have panicked a little with the lock-down. I looked at my wife shrugged and said "We're good, just buy a normal's week worth of stuff." And she was able to get it all (or equivalent) except for TP.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 19, 2020, 11:42:42 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 19, 2020, 11:03:24 AM
Just back from Costco, they were fully stocked, a bit crowded but managing well.  They had TP that everyone I saw picked up but us.

It was going fast, they had a stack in front of the store.

Premium gas was $1.88.  Premium.
Oil surges 23%, on track for best day ever, rebounding from Wednesday's steep losses
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 19, 2020, 11:43:58 AM
Quote from: TyphonInc on March 19, 2020, 11:30:19 AM
I wouldn't call myself a prepper/hoarder. But...

I do have in our basement a pantry of non-perishables. I had no idea that TP would be the panic item of choice. I've been calling this day 6 of lock-down and I've been to 7 stores since lock-down started. The first 6 stores had no TP, yesterday I went to Kroger as they opened at 7am, they had 3 pallets right by the registers, I grabbed 3 packs (1 for upstairs, 1 for downstairs, and 1 for the Prepper Pantry! (I'm not a prepper I swear.)

crazy prepper! ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 19, 2020, 12:16:47 PM
I've got enough food to last 2 weeks of normal eating, and another 2 weeks rationed if need be.

But I've also been going to the store at odd times and buying fresh food, so haven't really had to touch my stores.

Aside from the aforementioned toilet paper (of which I have plenty), the other items that have been hard to come by are milk and eggs.  Oh, and fresh onions and potatoes.  I don't eat potatoes all that often, but the kids like them mashed.  

Frozen vegetables have been low, but available, for the most part.  And aside from the initial hoarding frenzy over a week ago, canned vegetable are in plenty of supply.

Oh, there was also a run on tortillas and salsa.  Texicans, go figure...



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 19, 2020, 12:27:28 PM
Quote from: TyphonInc on March 19, 2020, 11:30:19 AM
(My prepper rules in case anyone cares) 
  • Must be food that we already eat.
  • Shelf life of 6 months or more. (I do Rotate older basements items with new purchases.)
  • Doesn't need to be cooked.

Some of the people we know have panicked a little with the lock-down. I looked at my wife shrugged and said "We're good, just buy a normal's week worth of stuff." And she was able to get it all (or equivalent) except for TP.
My wife has already said that she's going to learn from this and keep certain non-perishables in the house at all times going forward. 

I expect we'll end up with a bin in the garage full of pasta, canned goods, etc, and I'll have to probably remind her quarterly to go check expiration dates and make sure that we're rotating out anything that's getting close. 

But she keeps an incredibly well-stocked house anyway. I think we would have made it through two weeks without buying food with nearly zero change to our eating habits. Weeks 3-4 would be rough. Only beyond that would we be scrounging for calorie intake regardless of what it is...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2020, 12:37:01 PM
I bet most of us can go a month in a pinch IF we have the ability to boil water.  This place is all electric.  My fancy range would be dead weight if we lose power.

They do have picnic grills in the park that I could use in extremis if I can get charcoal.
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2020, 12:39:09 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/Eciu7h9.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/bJR0Zwf.jpg)
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2020, 12:39:36 PM
We dine there pretty often already and know the manager.  I'll be supporting them however I can.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 19, 2020, 12:41:58 PM
Because I have a kamado grill, and because the Kamado Joe charcoal is a great deal [at least at Costco road shows], I keep my eyes open every time I'm running low to buy in bulk. Last time (late January) I bought 240 lbs of charcoal and I still have 180+ left. So I'm good there.

I have to drive down to San Diego to drop off some products at a customer because it's too important to waste even a day shipping it overnight from Irvine.

The customer [like us] is currently not allowing supplier visits, so this might be me setting them down on the ground in the parking lot and slowly backing away so they can pick them up once I'm 6' away lol...

My route takes me right past Stone in Escondido, which is closed for on-site dining but open for takeout and to-go (beer or food) orders. What I can't seem to figure out is whether that includes growler fills--the Stone company store (where they fill growlers) is listed as closed... So I'll have to call them from the car after they open.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on March 19, 2020, 12:47:57 PM
The Kroger here has put a limit of 3 packages of meat per customer.  Other than meat we haven’t really had any trouble finding anything. If one store is out there seems to be another that has it. We haven’t needed TP yet.  My wife has our TP delivered periodically and we have a case of 36 rolls we haven’t even opened yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2020, 12:55:16 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 19, 2020, 12:37:01 PM
I bet most of us can go a month in a pinch IF we have the ability to boil water.  This place is all electric.  My fancy range would be dead weight if we lose power.

They do have picnic grills in the park that I could use in extremis if I can get charcoal.
We have 4 containers of propane, so I can grill for a long time with that. It gets hot enough to boil water too, thank you Weber.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 19, 2020, 01:14:42 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 19, 2020, 12:37:01 PM
I bet most of us can go a month in a pinch IF we have the ability to boil water.  
Let's see i have these instructions somewhere.......how about pull tabs I've got that down
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 19, 2020, 01:17:32 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 19, 2020, 10:31:36 AM
Went for a Costco run last night, and it wasn't particularly crazy, but it wasn't particularly well-stocked either. Plenty of beer and wine though ;-)

Man can't live on bread alone
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 19, 2020, 01:31:08 PM
I found this funny - at the grocery store, all of the ground beef was gone.  Ground turkey was nearly fully stocked.  I got plenty.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 19, 2020, 01:33:04 PM
I went around yesterday afternoon on a TP hunt.  None at  2 Walmarts.  Okay, gotta get clever.  None at Staples.  Hmm.  None at the big Asian grocery store.  Damn.  
So I'm actually having my brother mail me some.  How nuts is that?
.
He runs an organic grocery store and had a lady trying to buy 2 cart-fulls of TP.  He kindly refused her.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 19, 2020, 01:51:08 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 19, 2020, 12:41:58 PM
My route takes me right past Stone in Escondido, which is closed for on-site dining but open for takeout and to-go (beer or food) orders. What I can't seem to figure out is whether that includes growler fills--the Stone company store (where they fill growlers) is listed as closed... So I'll have to call them from the car after they open.

the breweries here won't fill an outside growler, but will fill one if I purchase new from them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 19, 2020, 01:51:40 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2020, 12:55:16 PM
We have 4 containers of propane, so I can grill for a long time with that. It gets hot enough to boil water too, thank you Weber.
I have a Weber and 3 tanks - not sorry
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2020, 01:54:55 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 19, 2020, 01:33:04 PM
I went around yesterday afternoon on a TP hunt.  None at  2 Walmarts.  Okay, gotta get clever.  None at Staples.  Hmm.  None at the big Asian grocery store.  Damn. 
So I'm actually having my brother mail me some.  How nuts is that?
.
He runs an organic grocery store and had a lady trying to buy 2 cart-fulls of TP.  He kindly refused her. 

She's a Bitch!


Hopefully the package will be discrete. Otherwise, you know, lost in the mail and all that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 19, 2020, 01:55:45 PM
Only problem here in Houston is bottled water and baby wipes

Other then that Kroger has come through so far
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2020, 01:58:10 PM
I'm waiting until next week to hit the stores. Hopefully the hoarders will run out of storage space by then. Assholes. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 19, 2020, 02:22:47 PM
I'm just hitting the stores every couple of days and grabbing what's available.

For the most part, they're not all that crowded and I can keep my distance from those around me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on March 19, 2020, 02:23:38 PM
Living out in the country, I have a 500 gallon propane tank for the furnace, stove and water heater. I also have 3 25lb tanks for the grill. So I'm good for a while.

But if I run low, I have a couple of fire pits and plenty of oak, apple, cherry wood that I can use to cook over. Also the occasional deer runs through the yard if the meat supplies run low. Not to mention the rabbit, turkey and other eatable critters that roam around here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2020, 02:34:18 PM
One can make do living in the country.  I have been spying on the squirrels over in the park of late, but I left my rifle behind in Cincy.

And my shotgun.  There are raccoons in the park on occasion and of course ducks and geese, but my 9 mm might not be ideal for them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2020, 02:36:54 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 19, 2020, 02:22:47 PM
I'm just hitting the stores every couple of days and grabbing what's available.

For the most part, they're not all that crowded and I can keep my distance from those around me.

Yeah, avoid the spread.

Very encouraging news out of DC today, with the malaria drug treatment. Hopefully it works!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 19, 2020, 02:42:13 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 19, 2020, 02:34:18 PM
One can make do living in the country.  I have been spying on the squirrels over in the park of late, but I left my rifle behind in Cincy.

And my shotgun.  There are raccoons in the park on occasion and of course ducks and geese, but my 9 mm might not be ideal for them.
Cut out both ends of a 2 liter plastic bottlle.Put you arm thru it and pull the pistol back thru inside - makes a decent silencer and you and the wife can have a decent French Duck Dinner.I'd pair it up with Yuengling
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 19, 2020, 02:48:12 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2020, 02:36:54 PM
Yeah, avoid the spread.

Very encouraging news out of DC today, with the malaria drug treatment. Hopefully it works!
Supposedly HIV treatment/meds also evidently simililar internal delivery system or sum-such as near as I understand.Taking a belt of Jim Beam everyday,so far so good
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2020, 02:50:30 PM
I'm not sure I could hit a duck with my 9 mm, noise issues aside.  Maybe if I fed him and was 3 feet away.  I'd probably have mostly duck feathers left.

I did bring down a duck with my shotgun back in the day, cooked him and ate him, very stringy.

The French do duck (canard) really well in general.  Burgundian pinot noir would be my pairing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2020, 02:52:18 PM
I have mentioned before that the Kirkland Napa Cab in a 3-L box is amazingly good for $13.  They now have a pinot gris out, haven't tried it.  They also have for $20 in bottle some Oakville Napa Cab which is superb at that price, needs a bit of time to open.

The wife drink's their Kirkland prosecco like water, which is almost is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 19, 2020, 03:15:39 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 19, 2020, 02:50:30 PM
I'm not sure I could hit a duck with my 9 mm, noise issues aside.  Maybe if I fed him and was 3 feet away.  I'd probably have mostly duck feathers left.

head shot!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 19, 2020, 03:16:37 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 19, 2020, 02:22:47 PM
I'm just hitting the stores every couple of days and grabbing what's available.

For the most part, they're not all that crowded and I can keep my distance from those around me.

I go once as week as my norm..... no trouble yet
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 19, 2020, 03:17:59 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 19, 2020, 01:55:45 PM
Only problem here in Houston is bottled water and baby wipes

Other then that Kroger has come through so far
tap water no good in Houston?

never will understand paying for water that comes out of the tap for a penny per gallon
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on March 19, 2020, 03:44:12 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 19, 2020, 10:17:06 AM
push ups and sit ups and squats

lack of ladies in spandex, but..............
For my cardio today I simply jogged up and down the set of stairs in my house for 30 minutes.  My legs are jelly even though I routinely do the stair master at my gym.  Great workout.  I was dripping sweat afterwards.  I’ve done that before in really inclement weather that I didn’t want to get out in but it had been a while.  If it isn’t raining tomorrow I may take a jog even though I really hate running.  

My typical home workout is pushups, sit-ups, dumbbell curls, lateral raises for the shoulders, and air squats.  My wife bought one of those Chuck Norris Total Gyms in January (that she hasn’t used once🤬)so at some point I might actually mess around with it and see what kind of workout I can get.
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 19, 2020, 04:57:18 PM
So they're basically sitting on a whole bunch of product they can't sell and making sure it goes to a good use? Kudos to them. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 19, 2020, 05:00:53 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 19, 2020, 02:50:30 PM
I did bring down a duck with my shotgun back in the day, cooked him and ate him, very stringy.
rabbit season - duck season,rabbit season - duck season
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: MichiFan87 on March 19, 2020, 05:02:15 PM
There a few places in DC (and I'm sure other cities throughout the country) that are essentially becoming temporary food kitchens. Food waste is a big problem as it is.
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2020, 05:04:11 PM
Just back from a walk about the 'hood.  I'd say 80% of the restaurants are just closed.  The others are take out only.  The Cafe above is closed, and I suppose they cooked everything they had yesterday.  It very very sad to see, this is such a vibrant community in normal times.  The park is rather crowded in a sense, the weather is near perfect.

None of these restaurants are large chains other than a Chipotle and Panera Bread.  I don't know how long they can last as is.  I talked with a couple guys who are working to open a burger place called Sam's in a couple weeks they said.  I told them I would come by and get take out when they open.  One guy was older and eastern European and the other was a young black guy, both very friendly.

If this doesn't somehow loosen up in a week or two, half the country may be out of work.  It's bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2020, 05:07:05 PM
Remember to support your local restaurants by ordering takeout or delivery once in a while.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 19, 2020, 05:10:13 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2020, 05:07:05 PM
Remember to support your local restaurants by ordering takeout or delivery once in a while.
Are you crazy - that's money that could be spent on toilet paper ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 19, 2020, 05:13:57 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2020, 12:55:16 PM
We have 4 containers of propane, so I can grill for a long time with that. It gets hot enough to boil water too, thank you Weber.
That reminds me. I need more propane. Planning to brew this weekend :-) 

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 19, 2020, 01:31:08 PM
I found this funny - at the grocery store, all of the ground beef was gone.  Ground turkey was nearly fully stocked.  I got plenty.
That's weird. Turkey is usually cheaper than beef too, right? 

You say you live on/near the reservation, right? Is this a cultural thing with the tribes? 

At Costco last night the only remaining meat was the high-dollar stuff, USDA prime steaks, seafood, and the organic ground beef and bison was fine. That's how I can tell the panic is subsiding, because people aren't buying "at whatever price"; they're buying up all the cheap proteins and even within beef, the cheap cuts.

But I fail to see why ground turkey wouldn't have a similar run. 
Quote from: FearlessF on March 19, 2020, 01:51:08 PM
the breweries here won't fill an outside growler, but will fill one if I purchase new from them
That's what I ran into. I called to see if they were filling growlers and on the phone they said yes, but didn't highlight that point. I walked in and they clarified (as they saw me with my cooler) that they aren't filling growlers from outside. We did spring cleaning in the garage two weekends ago and one of the things I did was pitched a lot of my low-use growlers to save space, so I wasn't about to buy a new one.

But they do sell crowlers, so I got 3 crowlers full of beer. And I think somehow they really undercharged me, which was nice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2020, 05:16:12 PM
Most are just closed down totally.  They are not the type to have take out orders at all.  The few remaining open are more casual places.  The shame is that about 5 more are scheduled to open for the first time soon, including a Persian restaurant.  Our French restaurant is trying to do take out and we'll order something tomorrow from them.  That doesn't help their alcohol business nor their servers.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2020, 05:18:55 PM
Slap the shit out of these f-balls, and also deny them any healthcare if they get "corona". Their names are out there.

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1240371160078000128

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETbQZ9OUMAEBq5P?format=jpg&name=small)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETbQZ9PUcAAxDJP?format=jpg&name=small)

Kid already looks sick.
Title: Re: Sports, and Coronavirus
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 19, 2020, 05:20:08 PM
I'm sure the little wine bar that my wife and I call home [where we were legally married!] is hurting. They are keeping their retail business open and offering to-go charcuterie platters.

So on Friday we're going to buy a nice bottle and a charcuterie platter to bring home. Not like we need any more nice wine in this house, but we want to do our part to keep money coming in for them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2020, 05:20:58 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 19, 2020, 05:16:12 PM
Most are just closed down totally.  They are not the type to have take out orders at all.  The few remaining open are more casual places.  The shame is that about 5 more are scheduled to open for the first time soon, including a Persian restaurant.  Our French restaurant is trying to do take out and we'll order something tomorrow from them.  That doesn't help their alcohol business nor their servers.


It helps the owners and helps the food prep people and helps keep a person or two employed to push out the orders or delivery, etc.


If you can help the owners, the job might be there when this blows over. If the owner is forced to close, there is nothing to come back to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 19, 2020, 05:23:00 PM
Nice job Brad I'm sure future employers won't do a web search and see that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2020, 05:26:38 PM
The two coronavirus topics are now merged.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 19, 2020, 05:28:03 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 15, 2020, 10:38:08 AM
two inches of snow Friday evening saturday morning
cooler temps

rat farts!
Spalding you'll go and you'll like it !!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on March 19, 2020, 06:39:34 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2020, 05:18:55 PM
Slap the shit out of these f-balls, and also deny them any healthcare if they get "corona". Their names are out there.

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1240371160078000128

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETbQZ9OUMAEBq5P?format=jpg&name=small)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETbQZ9PUcAAxDJP?format=jpg&name=small)

Kid already looks sick.
Repeal the 26th Amendment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 19, 2020, 06:47:31 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 19, 2020, 05:13:57 PM
That reminds me. I need more propane. Planning to brew this weekend :-)
That's weird. Turkey is usually cheaper than beef too, right?

You say you live on/near the reservation, right? Is this a cultural thing with the tribes?

At Costco last night the only remaining meat was the high-dollar stuff, USDA prime steaks, seafood, and the organic ground beef and bison was fine. That's how I can tell the panic is subsiding, because people aren't buying "at whatever price"; they're buying up all the cheap proteins and even within beef, the cheap cuts.

But I fail to see why ground turkey wouldn't have a similar run. 
I moved down to Phoenix a couple of years ago.  
The beef being gone with all the ground turkey being available made me laugh, as (poor) people have no interest in a healthy alternative - even in a crisis.  
Cookies and chips filling carts, nuts and salad shelves still full.  Fruit snacks gone, dried fruit still available.  
It's just revealing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 19, 2020, 06:49:51 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 19, 2020, 05:04:11 PM


If this doesn't somehow loosen up in a week or two, half the country may be out of work.  It's bad.
That ain't happening.
My dad was "hopeful" of the same thing, but this is a mathematical equation and we have other countries to provide the answer.  I can personally guarantee there will be far more cases and deaths 2 weeks from now than today.  It's a certainty.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2020, 06:50:06 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on March 19, 2020, 06:39:34 PM
Repeal the 26th Amendment.

At least 30 years of age, and not living in Mom's basement?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2020, 06:52:59 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 19, 2020, 06:49:51 PM
That ain't happening.
My dad was "hopeful" of the same thing, but this is a mathematical equation and we have other countries to provide the answer.  I can personally guarantee there will be far more cases and deaths 2 weeks from now than today.  It's a certainty.
That's strong. What makes you state this?

Not that I entirely disagree. Of course the cases will explode with testing now available (assclown f-balls coming home from Florida, etc. won't help).

Not sure about deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 19, 2020, 07:03:23 PM
Ehhhh, because math. 
3/1 - 1 death
3/2 - 5 more deaths
3/3 - 3 more
3/4 - 2 more
3/5 - 1 more
3/6 - 3 more
3/7 - 4 more
3/8 - 3 more
3/9 - 4 more
3/10 - 4 more
3/11 - 8 more
3/12 - 3 more
3/13 - 8 more
3/14 - 8 more
3/15 - 11 more
3/16 - 18 more
3/17 - 23 more
3/18- 41 more
.
This creates a trend line, a line that is expanding further and further.  Exponential, even.  It's accelerating. 
If we had started testing like South Korea since early Feb, maybe there'd be a reason to be optimistic right now.  But no.  We didn't.  There isn't. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2020, 07:13:44 PM
I didn't disagree with your premise. I think the medical profession is going to gain much more understanding on this and help beat it. Of course, the elderly and sick will be hit hard, no matter the intervention.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 19, 2020, 07:15:05 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2020, 06:52:59 PM
That's strong. What makes you state this?

Not that I entirely disagree. Of course the cases will explode with testing now available (assclown f-balls coming home from Florida, etc. won't help).

Not sure about deaths.
We're not taking enough precautions and people aren't taking precautions seriously, especially outside of the hard-hit areas. 

We don't have enough testing capacity so people who are potentially contagious are continuing to circulate.

This thing is going to grow, and we don't have anywhere near the capacity to care for severe cases.

One of the doctors at my wife's office is on the Coronavirus task force for her hospital in Long Beach, and says that the peak deaths will be about 40 days away here in OC. Also predicting 1M deaths nationally. 

We're way behind on this thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 19, 2020, 07:31:48 PM
The state of Texas, you know - the one with 29 million people, has done jack-squat.  We might actually want them to secede because they're going to need an inordinate percentage of resources because of their inaction.  
But oh, you know, when it gets bad there, it'll be an act of god or some crap.  Mysterious ways n such.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 19, 2020, 07:32:29 PM
Optimism is a waste of time when there's math involved.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 19, 2020, 07:41:53 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 19, 2020, 07:15:05 PM
We're not taking enough precautions and people aren't taking precautions seriously, especially outside of the hard-hit areas.

We don't have enough testing capacity so people who are potentially contagious are continuing to circulate.

This thing is going to grow, and we don't have anywhere near the capacity to care for severe cases.

One of the doctors at my wife's office is on the Coronavirus task force for her hospital in Long Beach, and says that the peak deaths will be about 40 days away here in OC. Also predicting 1M deaths nationally.

We're way behind on this thing.

It's so contagious that containment was never, EVER an option.  It's been in the USA since December.  More testing and earlier testing might have slowed the rate of the spread, and it also might have caused the panic a month earlier.

People are only going to social distance/SIP for 4-6 weeks.  After that, whatever the virus is going to go, it's going to do.  It was always going to be that way, anyway.

Flattening the curve doesn't mean preventing the spread, that's been impossible since Day 1.  It just means slowing it down so that health services, ERs, and ICUs aren't completely overrun.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 19, 2020, 07:45:45 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 19, 2020, 07:31:48 PM
The state of Texas, you know - the one with 29 million people, has done jack-squat.  We might actually want them to secede because they're going to need an inordinate percentage of resources because of their inaction. 
But oh, you know, when it gets bad there, it'll be an act of god or some crap.  Mysterious ways n such.
Not sure what you're talking about here?  The major cities in Texas have all had the no-gatherings>10 people rule in place since Sunday, which is within a day or two of when the metros in NYC, SF, and LA enacted similar rules.

All major cities and counties in Texas also have shut down the dining rooms of all bars and restaurants.

The beaches of Texas and Florida, on the other hand, are still crowded with Spring Breakers.  And they're all going back to their homes-- all over the country-- in a couple of days.  That's going to be a major problem for the entire country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 19, 2020, 07:46:45 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 19, 2020, 07:41:53 PM
It's so contagious that containment was never, EVER an option.  It's been in the USA since December.  More testing and earlier testing might have slowed the rate of the spread, 


Please don't use the word "might" here.  It's dishonest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 19, 2020, 07:49:36 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 19, 2020, 07:46:45 PM
Please don't use the word "might" here.  It's dishonest.

You're stating your opinion as fact.  I'm not being dishonest at all.

There are plenty of naive and ignorant people that, even up to this very moment, all over this country, are still choosing to gather in large groups and potentially spreading the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2020, 07:49:42 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 19, 2020, 07:15:05 PM
We're not taking enough precautions and people aren't taking precautions seriously, especially outside of the hard-hit areas.

We don't have enough testing capacity so people who are potentially contagious are continuing to circulate.

This thing is going to grow, and we don't have anywhere near the capacity to care for severe cases.

One of the doctors at my wife's office is on the Coronavirus task force for her hospital in Long Beach, and says that the peak deaths will be about 40 days away here in OC. Also predicting 1M deaths nationally.

We're way behind on this thing.
Yeah, that place.

Where my beloved 50 y/o Iron Man brother-in-law (brother) passed due to a medical error, during a routine (anal fissure) surgery. Sepsis.

F that hospital.

Got the call while on the I-80 Mississippi River bridge, coming home from a UW victory in Lincoln.


Sorry to change the subject...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2020, 08:09:29 PM
Public service announcement...

I received an email from a friend today, stating that the entire country would be on lockdown in a few days. Oh boy.

Yesterday I was alerted to the fact (via my local state rep) that Russia, China and Iran (shocking) were infiltrating BookFace with misinformation, to scare our people.

I think this is that. So do our local pols.

Be careful out there, but also be careful on what you read on social media.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 19, 2020, 08:33:52 PM
Can't tell you how many folks I've seen discussing emails or texts they've received that are "Fw: Fw: Fw: Fw: Fw:" messages, as completely factual, and even worse, as personal insider info.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 19, 2020, 08:39:37 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 19, 2020, 07:49:36 PM
You're stating your opinion as fact.  I'm not being dishonest at all.

There are plenty of naive and ignorant people that, even up to this very moment, all over this country, are still choosing to gather in large groups and potentially spreading the virus.
You might not want to call a mathematical certainty as a fact, but I'll consider them synonymous.  
I have no idea what your point is here, besides agreeing with what I've already stated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 19, 2020, 10:00:41 PM
I believe much more testing would have slowed the spread and saved some lives, but I haven't been convinced that it would have made a huge difference

even if we had unlimited tests, how much would it help?

to qualify for the limited tests you have all the symptoms and most of those tests are coming back negative

if your test comes back positive, you either self isolate and wait it out at home or are hospitalized

if your test comes back negative you wash your hands and practice social distancing (waiting to be infected later), then you'd need another test later.  When?  every 10 days?  every day?

tested or not, you're supposed to avoid spreading the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 19, 2020, 10:05:08 PM
https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-mass-testing-experiment-italian-town-covid-19-outbreak-1493183 (https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-mass-testing-experiment-italian-town-covid-19-outbreak-1493183)

Testing as many people as possible as early-on as possible leads directly to the spreading slowing and stopping.  It's not complicated. 

Identification = isolation = that case can no longer spread
.
Lack of testing = unknown cases spreading = what we have now....continued exponential spread
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 19, 2020, 10:08:17 PM
well then, with testing ramping up rapidly, this thing should slow and stop soon
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2020, 10:20:40 PM
Just got off a text string with our local state rep (Tom Morrison R-Palatine).

Rumors of a state lockdown - not true YET. The GOP conference call is at Noon tomorrow, and I will know more after that.

Stay tuned.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 19, 2020, 10:43:09 PM
I got nowhere else to go
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on March 20, 2020, 12:30:53 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2020, 08:09:29 PM
Public service announcement...

I received an email from a friend today, stating that the entire country would be on lockdown in a few days. Oh boy.

Yesterday I was alerted to the fact (via my local state rep) that Russia, China and Iran (shocking) were infiltrating BookFace with misinformation, to scare our people.

I think this is that. So do our local pols.

Be careful out there, but also be careful on what you read on social media.
This afternoon Iowa's governor said, Iowa is not considering a lock down. Things are changing rapidly. But, Iowa has had no confirmed instance of death. If it gets into a jail or nursing home, there will be a big problem. It's too bad testing is so restrictive it does not include frequent testing of asymptomatic health care workers, jailers and prison guards, and long term care facility workers.

I was visiting with my brother today. He shut down his dental practice Monday except to emergencies, about a day or so ahead of the Illinois dental association telling them dentists needed to do so. He felt reaffirmed. Now the issue becomes defining what constitutes an emergency.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 20, 2020, 01:20:33 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 19, 2020, 10:08:17 PM
well then, with testing ramping up rapidly, this thing should slow and stop soon
It could have
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on March 20, 2020, 01:40:11 AM
Yeah, my internist is closing save, urgent related matters.  Dentist also pulled plug.   My wife is an anesthesiologist at a (outpatient) surgery center, and yes they have called off any elective surgeries entirely.    There's a narrow band of necessary surgeries which they are still performing (broken ankles, etc. patients that would otherwise see increased health risks, or significant burden to Q of life if not performed).

One of the items her colleagues and adjacent hospital peers are concerned about are 'other' medical centers still performing cases, which could create pressure on supplies, which may be needed in the event...of, well you know.    Another interesting note on her world, ventilators.   The big ones, are really huge btw.   Hospitals don't stockpile ventilators by the dozens or thousands, for obvious reasons,  there's never been a reason to have 100s, 1,000s in one or more location in a market.   Furthermore, there's only so many qualified persons who can operate such machines (apparently about 135,000, one wonders how quickly that could be addressed.).  Usual heavy cluster in high population centers, very few in rural areas.  The Feds do actually have a stockpile of ventilators (amounts to about 12,000 or so) in a country that has about 200,000 in operation.   Those of course will be put to use if needed.   What's developing is a war effort type deployment of resources and personnel, really at all levels of medicine/govt.   Regrettably one of my wife's partners tells me the four major manufacturers are overseas. (Europe and Asia).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2020, 08:32:04 AM
I asked about the symptoms my child in Texas has:

"I now have mild symptoms of occasional fever, sore throat, and chest pain. Very little coughing. Monday through Wednesday wasn't fun but didn't need to go to hospital or anything. I never had any congestion or runny nose. Had a lot of fatigue and body aches but mostly better now. 

Quarantined until March 30. My office is closed until April 6. Having to spend $30/day on food and delivery. Lol. Grocery stores are still messed up down here. "


They had a client visit their office who later tested positive.  Said client was "out and about" and traveling on a plane etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: TyphonInc on March 20, 2020, 09:30:19 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 19, 2020, 10:05:08 PM
https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-mass-testing-experiment-italian-town-covid-19-outbreak-1493183 (https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-mass-testing-experiment-italian-town-covid-19-outbreak-1493183)

Testing as many people as possible as early-on as possible leads directly to the spreading slowing and stopping.  It's not complicated.

Identification = isolation = that case can no longer spread
.
Lack of testing = unknown cases spreading = what we have now....continued exponential spread

Accurate testing of people leads to identification, isolation, slowing and stopping of the virus. The first test that Korea was running was only %90 accurate. That lead to a few people who had it getting missed, but lead to a lot of panic and confusion due to an overwhelming number of false positives. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2020, 09:37:29 AM
How often do you need to test a person?  Daily?  Weekly?  How many tests is that?  If we try and test folks across the board, it seems herculean to me.

And the person who tests positive has likely been out and about to some extent spreading it before they get tested.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 20, 2020, 09:46:34 AM
If you can, just stay home. Go to the grocery store one time per week, and that's it. Go out for a walk, and that's it.

Yeah, it sucks and I honestly never thought we'd be at this point with this thing. We are at this point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on March 20, 2020, 10:02:35 AM
Testing is no panacea.  The incubation period believed to be 14 days, would really undermine accuracy to a material degree. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2020, 10:04:47 AM
The health professionals should be tested often, if possible, and perhaps the police and anyone else that has to be out and about.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 20, 2020, 10:20:20 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2020, 07:49:42 PM
Yeah, that place.

Where my beloved 50 y/o Iron Man brother-in-law (brother) passed due to a medical error, during a routine (anal fissure) surgery. Sepsis.

Lost my oldest brother a few years back almost same.Original hernia operation had symptoms.Went back twice we believe something pierced - doesn't take much.Recovery went back-forth for 8 months,started to look good then took a turn for the worse.SIL didn't take legal action but certainly would have been in the right to do so.She had already been thru hell and let it be
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 20, 2020, 10:23:13 AM
with or w/o a test, stay at home unless going to the golf course or the grocery store

my store wasn't bad last night

only lacking one thing at 7pm - toilet paper

4 inches of snow this morning - spring is coming
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2020, 10:39:49 AM
So, my neighbor who flew back from Europe Monday said when they landed, some CDC types come onto the plane handing out directions and asked if anyone was feeling ill.  The plane had about 120 passengers, probably less than half full.  After that, he said there was no line at immigration, he was out in a few minutes.  I just offered to pick up a lamb burger for him for lunch from the place next door.  He was concerned about being that long in a plane of course with possibly infected people.  He has no symptoms as yet, he seems to be enjoying himself.  I took him a plate of grilled steelhead trout last night, I think he's getting used to this.

The wife went to her hairdresser this AM, against my subtle advice.  I told her she couldn't possibly look any better.  It's a gorgeous day here today so we'll be out walking soonish.  No snow.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on March 20, 2020, 10:43:53 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 20, 2020, 10:04:47 AM
The health professionals should be tested often, if possible, and perhaps the police and anyone else that has to be out and about.


They are even talking about whether the Docs should continue working if infected.   Decent contingent says yes. very fascinating to keep tabs on my wife's internal office debates.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 20, 2020, 10:43:58 AM
Need to run to Costco and hopefully find some of the meat items that were depleted the other night.

Also need to run through Home Depot, if they're open, for a propane tank swap and some grass seed. I'm hoping Home Depot stays open through all this stuff, because if we're going to be confined to home all the time I might as well get some projects done. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 20, 2020, 10:46:26 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 20, 2020, 10:39:49 AM
The wife went to her hairdresser this AM, against my subtle advice.  I told her she couldn't possibly look any better.  It's a gorgeous day here today so we'll be out walking soonish.  No snow.
Yeah, that was the joke on instagram yesterday... That with this lockdown, we're soon going to be able to see womens' true hair color :57:

I told my wife that I would be expecting her to cut my hair when it gets long. I've got the clippers. I don't think she's going to be up for it, but hopefully she'll be up for fixing it when I fail at doing it myself. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on March 20, 2020, 10:47:48 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 20, 2020, 10:43:58 AM
Need to run to Costco and hopefully find some of the meat items that were depleted the other night.

Also need to run through Home Depot, if they're open, for a propane tank swap and some grass seed. I'm hoping Home Depot stays open through all this stuff, because if we're going to be confined to home all the time I might as well get some projects done.
I went to the grocery store this morning as soon as it opened at 7, and it was a zoo.  I went midday on Sunday, and it was fairly empty, but so were the shelves.  It was a pain, and I didn't like being there, but same issue, we keep some meat frozen for stir fry and stuff like that, but they were out of meat and bread by midday.

They are going to start opening an hour earlier for seniors next week, but judging from the shopping carts, they are just as prone to hoarding as anyone.  They need to change the 12 items or less lines to like $150 or less lines or something.  I just did a normal weekly shopping, but the people with two overflowing carts are killing this for everyone.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2020, 10:57:56 AM
This area must be doing better with supply/distribution than others.  Obviously, this is a major trucking/rail/distribution hub, so that should help.  Once stores are largely restocked, folks will stop panic buying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 20, 2020, 11:03:44 AM
I'm just annoyed that the stay at home order had to happen last night. I worry that's going to trigger another round of panic buying, and all I want is to get the meat necessary to run through a decent menu over the next two weeks.

I realized I have a meeting at 11 AM that I need to dial into, which means I have to either go to Costco closer to opening time than I'd like (and risk being part of long lines and panic) or go to Costco later in the day than I'd like (and risk not finding what I need).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 20, 2020, 11:07:35 AM
I ordered a 2 in 1 Dell last night from Costco, and for the hell of it, checked the groceries and such. They are out of anything made from paper, out of garbage bags, coffee, etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 20, 2020, 11:13:07 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 20, 2020, 11:07:35 AM
I ordered a 2 in 1 Dell last night from Costco, and for the hell of it, checked the groceries and such. They are out of anything made from paper, out of garbage bags, coffee, etc.
Good for you, I have a couple of those myself! :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 20, 2020, 11:17:42 AM
Those who owe taxes now have until July 15 to file and pay.  Great move!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 20, 2020, 11:34:31 AM
Quote from: utee94 on March 20, 2020, 11:13:07 AM
Good for you, I have a couple of those myself! :)

This one is for Mrs. 847. No computer now that she is retired/repurposed. I'm a Surface guy, but those are too expensive for what she needs/wants.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 20, 2020, 12:19:50 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 20, 2020, 11:03:44 AM
I'm just annoyed that the stay at home order had to happen last night. I worry that's going to trigger another round of panic buying, and all I want is to get the meat necessary to run through a decent menu over the next two weeks.

no lockers or butcher shops in Cali?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 20, 2020, 12:20:56 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on March 20, 2020, 11:17:42 AM
Those who owe taxes now have until July 15 to file and pay.  Great move!
I filed an amendment last night due to a 1099 coming in the mail late

I'll wait until July to send the check for $700
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 20, 2020, 12:55:19 PM
Help your country. Pay it now, and double it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on March 20, 2020, 12:57:33 PM
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on March 17, 2020, 02:33:58 PM
I just got laid off until this all blows over. Sucks, but I sorta saw it coming. I make helmet decals, and no one is playing sports; nor are any schools open, and they are the bulk of our customer base obviously.
Well my family has now been hit with a layoff as well.  My wife got laid off last night.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 20, 2020, 01:01:08 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 20, 2020, 12:55:19 PM
Help your country. Pay it now, and double it.
great idea, but hard no
I've been helping my country for decades
let's say I paid it forward
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 20, 2020, 01:11:25 PM
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on March 20, 2020, 12:57:33 PM
Well my family has now been hit with a layoff as well.  My wife got laid off last night. 
Sorry to hear that, hang in there.

We don't have a layoff, but while my wife's clinic is closed down, she's not getting paid.  As soon as they reopen, she'll be paid normally as per usual.  Assuming her clinic makes it, of course.  It's a private shop, no corporate backing, so if they're not seeing patients, there's no money coming in, and they still have to cover fixed expenses.  If that goes on too long, they'll go under.

Anyway, we're down to just one income for the duration.  We have savings to cover, but scrimping and saving is now the name of the game.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on March 20, 2020, 01:11:35 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 20, 2020, 12:20:56 PM
I filed an amendment last night due to a 1099 coming in the mail late

I'll wait until July to send the check for $700
I'm in the same boat for about the same amount of money. They can wait until July to get my money. I also have been doing my part for 33 years. A couple of months on this one won't hurt them. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 20, 2020, 01:13:14 PM
As for helping my country, they've been making money off the interest of what they've forced me to pay in, all year long.  And all year long every year before that, for the past 32 years, since I've been working and paying Federal taxes.

If they didn't save that money and spend it wisely, it's definitely not MY fault.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 20, 2020, 01:16:47 PM
Maybe I should have put a sarcasm meter on my post.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2020, 01:23:23 PM
The lamb burger was tasty.  They are doing a pretty solid business over there with take out.  They are set up on their patio, so you go up to the low brick wall and collect your order.  I left a nice tip and thanked them, and dropped of my neighbor's burger.

I'm drinking a can of IPA my neighbor insisted I take, it's rather hoppy, from Catawba, NC.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 20, 2020, 01:35:28 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 20, 2020, 01:16:47 PM
Maybe I should have put a sarcasm meter on my post.
Oh I got it.

Just felt like soapboxing a bit.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2020, 01:39:19 PM
I think "we" should note an exception to anything OAM posts forever.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 20, 2020, 01:41:30 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 20, 2020, 12:19:50 PM
no lockers or butcher shops in Cali?
There definitely are. I have a really awesome butcher shop just a few miles away: El Toro Gourmet Meats (https://www.eltorogourmetmeats.com/)

It's where I go for "special occasion meat" though, usually, due to price. In a couple weeks my wife and I have our 2 year anniversary, and we planned to go to Ruth's Chris... Thinking that's not an option. So I'll buy her the $32/lb filet mignon and buy myself the $24/lb ribeye and grill it myself... But I'm not feeding the kids from that joint!

I hit Costco this morning. I got really lucky in that I thought they opened at 9:30, when they open at 10, and I showed up at 9:30. But they apparently have started letting in normal shoppers after the 8-9 AM "senior hour", so I walked right in. When I left at 9:55, it was like a flood of people into the store because they were coming for the normal store opening time.

No chuck roast or pork tenderloin, which was annoying. But I managed to get flank steak, some baby back ribs, and a rack of lamb. They didn't have fresh ground beef, but I realized they sell 5# bags of individually-wrapped 1# chubs of ground beef. And it's 85/15 rather than their usual 88/12, which I prefer. 

Given that I end up portioning out the big packages of fresh roast beef, vacuum sealing, and freezing it anyway, I'm going to be looking for this stuff in the future. 

I think we're all set on groceries now. Absent maybe a run to the normal store for fresh produce next week, we're good on meat/fish/etc for the foreseeable future. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 20, 2020, 01:49:55 PM
How I feel every time I leave the house now:

(https://media.tenor.com/images/b0cb8464a62e24901bed6302a4a7393c/tenor.gif)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 20, 2020, 01:59:09 PM
Lots of the nicer cuts have been selling out. Kinda weird, but whatever. I got shank, short ribs, a couple of roasts and ground instead. 

I do have a flank and 3 strips, and some skirt, which I already had on hand.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 20, 2020, 02:03:07 PM
problem solved, just cheat and go to the store early with the old folks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2020, 02:09:38 PM
My hope that the death rate in Italy had peaked has gone to the toilet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 20, 2020, 02:34:31 PM
math > hope
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on March 20, 2020, 02:38:39 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 20, 2020, 01:23:23 PM
The lamb burger was tasty.  They are doing a pretty solid business over there with take out.  They are set up on their patio, so you go up to the low brick wall and collect your order.  I left a nice tip and thanked them, and dropped of my neighbor's burger.

I'm drinking a can of IPA my neighbor insisted I take, it's rather hoppy, from Catawba, NC.
Nook?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2020, 03:00:20 PM
Yeah, The Nook.  It's decent foodwise and they have a nice patio area.  It caters to younger folks than us, but we feel welcome there.  We don't dine there that often, just when we're tired and don't feel like cooking or walking further.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 20, 2020, 03:09:00 PM
wish I didn't have to walk any further than that

but then sometimes I'm happy no one is walking to my place
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 20, 2020, 03:23:34 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 20, 2020, 01:23:23 PM
I'm drinking a can of IPA my neighbor insisted I take, it's rather hoppy, from Catawba, NC.
Ya he's drinking the good stuff and didn't want to poor it out.Friends don't let friends drink IPAs
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 20, 2020, 03:26:23 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 20, 2020, 02:34:31 PM
math > hope
Hope > snarky remarks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on March 20, 2020, 03:41:58 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 20, 2020, 03:00:20 PM
Yeah, The Nook.  It's decent foodwise and they have a nice patio area.  It caters to younger folks than us, but we feel welcome there.  We don't dine there that often, just when we're tired and don't feel like cooking or walking further.
The only time I went there I had the lamb burger. Was impressed. Need to try the totchos next time around 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 20, 2020, 03:51:33 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 20, 2020, 01:59:09 PM
Lots of the nicer cuts have been selling out. Kinda weird, but whatever. I got shank, short ribs, a couple of roasts and ground instead.

I do have a flank and 3 strips, and some skirt, which I already had on hand.

Hearing rumors your Gov is about to put all of Illinois on lockdown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 20, 2020, 03:53:23 PM
should have stocked the boat for a 30 day tour and escaped to Lake Michigan
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 20, 2020, 03:54:11 PM
Yeah, boy!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2020, 04:14:30 PM
We just walked around the park again, it's pretty crowded which makes sense given how many folks are off and it's a very nice day, a bit warm.  People were not in close groups though.  Folks are lined up outside the Nook getting beverages right now, about 10 of them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2020, 04:15:36 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on March 20, 2020, 03:41:58 PM
The only time I went there I had the lamb burger. Was impressed. Need to try the totchos next time around
The totchos are good, and filling, for $10.  Too filling really.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 20, 2020, 04:24:14 PM
Too early to tell what it means, but the governor issued a shelter in place order, through 4/7, beginning tomorrow at 5PM.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2020, 04:29:59 PM
So, if you're out and about, and they arrest you under some charge I can't imagine, they throw you in a crowded jail with 25 other people?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on March 20, 2020, 04:38:49 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 20, 2020, 04:29:59 PM
So, if you're out and about, and they arrest you under some charge I can't imagine, they throw you in a crowded jail with 25 other people?
There are some lawyers on here, I'm not one of them.  

That said, I did go to lawschool for a while, I just didn't finish.  The executive has pretty wide discretion in responding to a crisis so I imagine the charge would be something along the lines of a failure to disperse or failure to comply with a lawful order.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 20, 2020, 04:51:16 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 20, 2020, 04:29:59 PM
So, if you're out and about, and they arrest you under some charge I can't imagine, they throw you in a crowded jail with 25 other people?
The issue is that there are TONS of loopholes in these orders.

People in essential/critical industries are still going to work. People who need to go to the grocery store, the bank, etc can still be out and about.

I believe that nothing in the order precludes me from setting up a meeting to transfer my kids from my ex-wife per our custody agreement next Friday... (But I'm still looking!)

Heck, the one that occurred in the Bay Area said that walking, running, hiking was all still fine as long as appropriate social distancing was observed. So frankly if I wanted to go hiking this weekend I'd be fine. 

Basically nobody in power wants to "enforce" this. The idea is that by setting the order, people will get the idea that it's not just a suggestion, and they'll modify their behavior because they realize it's serious. The bulk of people staying home except when it's absolutely necessary to go out is a hell of a big step in the right direction.

If it were to become an enforcement issue, it would be on businesses flouting the rules, not really on individuals.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2020, 04:54:02 PM
The irony of being jailed for disobeying an order that likely is unconstitutional (that is irrelevant to my point) is ironic.

In France, you can be fined for being out and about, but you can print out a GOOJFC on line that explains why and where you were going.  Some people don't have access to printers etc. of course.  Unless they go out.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 20, 2020, 05:06:32 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 20, 2020, 04:54:02 PM
The irony of being jailed for disobeying an order that likely is unconstitutional (that is irrelevant to my point) is ironic.

In France, you can be fined for being out and about, but you can print out a GOOJFC on line that explains why and where you were going.  Some people don't have access to printers etc. of course.  Unless they go out.
I read about similar in Italy. If you have a legitimate work or family reason to travel [and "travel" was loosely defined in the story I read--I assume it's primarily intercity or air travel, not going to the grocery store] you merely have to carry your own affidavit to why it's necessary.

We had an all-hands call today to talk about all this and one of my colleagues in Italy was on the line, and said basically nothing's open except the grocery stores. So while it might be possible to go out, there's nowhere to go. 

That said, my wife has been talking about having her office print up an official-looking piece of paper for her as the office manager and for the medical assistant in the office such that they could justify their employment in an "essential" sector if stopped. But nobody is planning on stopping people, the best as I can tell. On that all-hands they mentioned that our management has been in near-daily contact with the mayor of San Jose and he flat out said that there is no plan to stop people and demand they justify why they're out.

It's about changing behavior, not about punishment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2020, 05:09:27 PM
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/20/815408287/how-the-novel-coronavirus-and-the-flu-are-alike-and-different (https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/20/815408287/how-the-novel-coronavirus-and-the-flu-are-alike-and-different)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 20, 2020, 05:17:49 PM
For anyone worried about exposure through food (takeout/delivery/grocery/etc), this should assuage your fears somewhat:

https://www.seriouseats.com/2020/03/food-safety-and-coronavirus-a-comprehensive-guide.html (https://www.seriouseats.com/2020/03/food-safety-and-coronavirus-a-comprehensive-guide.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on March 20, 2020, 05:50:30 PM
https://twitter.com/Sheehan_Sports/status/1241037015182905361?s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MichiFan87 on March 20, 2020, 06:27:46 PM
Quote from: ELA on March 20, 2020, 05:50:30 PM
https://twitter.com/Sheehan_Sports/status/1241037015182905361?s=19
Sparty left Zavier Simpson wide open from 3 several times for no apparent reason in the last game.....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 20, 2020, 06:59:00 PM
The state of AZ is still using hope instead of the math, closing schools through April 10th.  As if in 3 weeks, Trump's miracle would have happened by then.  
Let's see.....we're about 10 days behind Italy, and they had their deadliest day from the virus 2 days ago.....so in 3 weeks here, things will be peachy.
.
Our governor is a dipshit.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 20, 2020, 07:07:08 PM
My business has been deemed essential, by the executive order just posted. So, we are open and working (from home and in the field - not office).

Thank goodness. I was dreading laying off so many good people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 20, 2020, 07:28:12 PM
Just went out to run some errands including hitting the pharmacy and the grocery store. In Florida they ordered all restaurants to close except for delivery plus closure of gyms and physical fitness centers. That was around 5 o’clock

I’m now wondering if or when it’s going to take affect because I just traveled quite a ways in multiple directions and the traffic was heavier than normal and most of the restaurants I saw were not only open but had plenty of people inside of them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 20, 2020, 07:42:16 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on March 20, 2020, 07:28:12 PM
 most of the restaurants I saw were not only open but had plenty of people inside of them.
Brilliant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 20, 2020, 07:45:18 PM
drove 30 miles after work to my favorite locker for the (8) fresh cut rib eyes for the party at my place Saturday night

a huge sign in the parking lot, another very large sign outside the door, and a large sign just inside the door,  all state: "Only One Person per vehicle in the store!"

wasn't helping at all - the owner was asking folks to step out and wait in the car.

a guy showed up and bought one package of beef sticks - he was scolded at the checkout.  Not a good enough reason to be out and about for one package.

good people and not obviously stupid, just hard to get used to the idea.  Especially when there's not a confirmed case within 100 miles of your small town
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 20, 2020, 07:46:51 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 20, 2020, 07:42:16 PM
Brilliant.
probably goes into effect Sunday night after the evening meal

everyone wants their "last" supper 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on March 20, 2020, 08:19:31 PM
Sure Mike, as "toilet paper"

https://twitter.com/GovMikeHuckabee/status/1241004717855080448?s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 20, 2020, 08:27:03 PM
cobs really do work

helps if they are dried 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on March 20, 2020, 09:09:36 PM
Got take out from our favorite local place in town tonight.  Owner thanked me profusely.  Even insisted on having me drink a beer at the bar on him while I waited.

Took my daughter to Wal-Mart because she was freaking out because she needed a folder for a research project that is due when (if)  they go back in a couple of weeks.  They actually had a few packages of TP.  I bought one for the hell of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 20, 2020, 09:12:44 PM
Gonna need TP in about 10 days. Hopefully the asshat hoarding is done by then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on March 21, 2020, 01:34:23 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 20, 2020, 04:29:59 PM
So, if you're out and about, and they arrest you under some charge I can't imagine, they throw you in a crowded jail with 25 other people?
I spoke to a jailer. In our county they are limiting the overnight arrests of people to the extent possible, and when they are brought in, instead of placing them in a cell, they are putting them in the "rec" room, which is devoid of any equipment, and not mixing new inmates with the longer term inmates. We have an older jail a bull pen for about 5-10 inmates, and about 5 individual cells with bars. Our law enforcement is dispersing new inmates who must be held overnight, to other area county jails that are newer style jails with the pods surrounded by "dorm rooms." But the dorm rooms can house up to 6-people. I don't know how much separation modern jails are actually keeping between inmates, although I do know the use of the capacity in the newer jails is on average one-sixth to one-third of capacity in this area of rural NE Iowa. So many of these jails were built on the hope that federal inmates would be housed there, that would pay for the jail. These counties were drinking the Kool-Aide of unjustifiable hope for a windfall profit.

Peace officers are not being dispatched to first responder calls unless they are required to maintain security.

Courts are allowing defendants more time now before inmates must report after conviction to serve their sentence. We are using more teleconference and videoconference with the Court. Felony pleas can now be taken by written plea rather than in-person plea (we have had written pleas for misdemeanors my entire legal career at the state level).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 21, 2020, 08:32:30 AM
A crowd of 20 or so had gathered last night outside the Nook because they were making mixed drinks.  The police asked them to disperse, so the crowd went across the street into the park, drinks in hand (which is  technically illegal), still a crowd standing around or sitting on benches in close proximity.

The issue is if his becomes common the mayor will shut down whatever is still open.

The average person around this area is 30ish with a dog, couples have a young kid., and of course a LOT of singles.  Some of the latter are nice to look at, I hear, I of course don't look so I wouldn't know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 21, 2020, 08:58:44 AM
singles are gonna mingle

police should have gone into the park and asked them again to disperse - explaining (perhaps again) the mayor's motivation

no reason to have a few ruin this for the entire community
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 21, 2020, 09:08:20 AM
I just got an email message from Publix (grocery chain serving Florida). They are reserving the hours between 7 and 9AM for seniors to shop.

10,000,000 seniors in two hours - store empty rest of day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 21, 2020, 09:20:39 AM
Be patient, you'll be a senior soon enough
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 21, 2020, 09:37:50 AM
The police have their hands full around here there are so many bars and hangouts and millenials.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 21, 2020, 09:43:40 AM
start writing citations, the fine $$$ will help stimulate donut shops
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on March 21, 2020, 10:09:42 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 21, 2020, 09:08:20 AM
I just got an email message from Publix (grocery chain serving Florida). They are reserving the hours between 7 and 9AM for seniors to shop.

10,000,000 seniors in two hours - store empty rest of day.
Same here with Giant Eagle.  I didn't notice any correlation between age and hoarding.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 21, 2020, 10:16:32 AM
I think he's just saying there are so many seniors, there won't be anything left. 

Around here grocery stores are doing the same thing, allowing 2 hours before "regular openeing" for seniors." 

But there are long lines to get in though, at any time of say, as the number of people within each store at any given time, is being regulated.

I haven't been in a few days because I have food and no desire to stand around in line for an hour.

But at this point we're beyond panic buying and hoarding-- this is the consequence of so many people staying at home, eating more meals at home, and not having anywhere else to go.  Also, the shortened store hours are forcing more people into a smaller time window.  I don't see this getting better until the quarantine bans are lifted.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 21, 2020, 10:24:25 AM
Quote from: utee94 on March 21, 2020, 10:16:32 AM
I think he's just saying there are so many seniors, there won't be anything left. 

Around here grocery stores are doing the same thing, allowing 2 hours before "regular openeing" for seniors."

But there are long lines to get in though, at any time of say, as the number of people within each store at any given time, is being regulated.

I haven't been in a few days because I have food and no desire to stand around in line for an hour.

But at this point we're beyond panic buying and hoarding-- this is the consequence of so many people staying at home, eating more meals at home, and not having anywhere else to go.  Also, the shortened store hours are forcing more people into a smaller time window.  I don't see this getting better until the quarantine bans are lifted.


I'm glad at least one person here understands me. :03:


Store here are doing it too. I get it for here. But in Florida?

They should do special hours for non-seniors!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 21, 2020, 10:26:27 AM
my usual grocery was open 24 hours in the past, I'd rather go there late or early and avoid crowds

I understand they might be doing deep cleaning while closed, just not sure how much that helps after the first 15 minutes of opening the doors to the mob waiting in line
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 21, 2020, 10:31:18 AM
I'd hope by now that people have enough food in the house to just stay home for a while.

I read somewhere that chest freezers are sold out. 

REALLY?!?!?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 21, 2020, 10:42:35 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 21, 2020, 10:31:18 AM
I'd hope by now that people have enough food in the house to just stay home for a while.

I read somewhere that chest freezers are sold out.

REALLY?!?!?
Yep. You can't really hoard if you don't have room to put it. 

FYI Costco has apparently been refusing returns on the commonly-hoarded items, and I've heard the big box stores are saying they won't take back chest freezers when this is all said and done, even if it's within their normal return policies. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 21, 2020, 10:55:55 AM
I will say that's an advantage of being a homebrewer--I have four refrigerators (three of which have freezers). There's the main kitchen fridge, the garage overflow fridge, the fermentation fridge, and the kegerator/beer/wine fridge. The fermentation fridge, when fermenting beer, uses an external relay to keep the fridge temp in the low 60s, so when I'm fermenting I can't use the top freezer. But if there is beer cold crashing or lagering / cold conditioning, then the fridge is running normal temps and it becomes an overflow freezer.

My kegerator is actually a 21 cu ft convertible fridge/freezer, so if I took all the kegs and beer out of it, I could store a a frozen side of beef with room to spare. But I don't plan on doing that, so I don't consider that a "freezer" at all.

We bought a new fridge before this thing all hit (President's Day weekend) but it isn't getting delivered until Monday. It's a nice 26 cu ft french door model with two freezer drawers. But at that point the primary kitchen fridge will go out to the garage and become the overflow fridge, the oldest/smallest garage fridge, which is currently the fermentation fridge, will go away, and the nicer overflow fridge becomes the fermentation fridge. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on March 21, 2020, 11:05:55 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2020, 06:50:06 PM
At least 30 years of age, and not living in Mom's basement?
That would be a good start.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 21, 2020, 11:15:19 AM
Yeah I actually have 3 refrigerator/freezers right now, plus my chest freezer.  I've always had 2 fridges, one in the main house and one in the garage,  but we just got a new one for the house, and rotated our old house one to the garage.  I was going to get rid of the second garage fridge, but then all this happened, so it remains.  It's completely full of beer so my stock is good for a while.  Especially since I'm not drinking hooch right now.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 21, 2020, 11:23:45 AM
We just have the one, but it's a big Subzero model, so it's kinda like having 2.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 21, 2020, 11:24:30 AM
Maybe the lockdown that starts at 5PM today will help curb these numbers. Maybe not.

****************

At least seven people have been shot and wounded in Chicago overnight from Friday to Saturday, authorities said.
The most recent shooting unfolded Saturday morning in the Humboldt Park neighborhood on the West Side, according to Chicago police.


Two men were reportedly standing in a front yard about 2:20 a.m. in the 3700 block of West Grand Avenue when gunfire, possibly from a passing vehicle, struck them, police said.

One man, 33, was wounded multiple times in his body and taken in critical condition to Mount Sinai Hospital. The other man, 21, was shot in the left leg and taken in serious-but-stable condition to the same hospital, police said. Officers were unable to interview witnesses.


…
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on March 21, 2020, 11:45:12 AM
Quote from: utee94 on March 21, 2020, 10:16:32 AM
I think he's just saying there are so many seniors, there won't be anything left. 

No, I was agreeing with him.  There were tons of seniors, and a similar percentage was hoarding as everyone else, so by the time its open to the public, the shelves will be empty
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on March 21, 2020, 11:46:40 AM
Honestly, aside from meat and bread, it's fine mid-day.  We have enough frozen meat to get by, but it's not great.

Anyone ever done the Omaha Steaks thing?  Are they at least fine?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 21, 2020, 11:51:54 AM
I'm not a big fan of Omaha steaks. I guess "fine" would be a good way to describe. I think this company is better, to be very honest. Much less $$ too.

https://www.nonamesteaks.com/

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 21, 2020, 11:53:44 AM
If you go with no name, please search through our CFB51 site, on Amazon.

https://www.amazon.com/Original-Sirloin-Steak-Package-Steaks/dp/B07LGCW921/ref=sr_1_1_sspa?adFormat=grid&adId=searchbar&adMode=manual&adType=smart&creativeASIN=searchbar&dchild=1&imprToken=l-GFWYFSSquRNy.IXUZ-RQ&impressionTimestamp=1584805927892&keywords=noname+steaks&linkCode=w43&qid=1584805928&ref-refURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cfb51.com%2Fbig-ten%2Fsports-and-coronavirus%2Fnew%2F&sig=undefined&sigts=undefined&slotNum=0&sr=8-1-spons&psc=1&spLa=ZW5jcnlwdGVkUXVhbGlmaWVyPUEyUlpGWEJJV0hLRVYwJmVuY3J5cHRlZElkPUEwODM3MTk2M0FYRERNN1dPQUpZRSZlbmNyeXB0ZWRBZElkPUEwMzA0NDYxMjlYRVlPMVpKNDlNVyZ3aWRnZXROYW1lPXNwX2F0ZiZhY3Rpb249Y2xpY2tSZWRpcmVjdCZkb05vdExvZ0NsaWNrPXRydWU=
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 21, 2020, 11:55:29 AM
I'd rather support the local butcher shop, which has some high end stuff.  We don't eat much meat any more, the wife prefers fish or chicken or lamb.  The steelhead trout is excellent, that is almost all we eat, grilled, when it comes to fish.

The butcher shop is not cheap obviously.  Costco has prime cuts if you want them around $20 a pound or so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 21, 2020, 12:00:06 PM
Omaha Steaks are fine or better, just overpriced

I get a gift box each xmas from a contractor for Kansas City Steaks, I prefer them to Omaha

https://www.kansascitysteaks.com/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIkdv33fer6AIVSP_jBx2jyQt3EAAYASAAEgL_9_D_BwE (https://www.kansascitysteaks.com/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIkdv33fer6AIVSP_jBx2jyQt3EAAYASAAEgL_9_D_BwE)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 21, 2020, 12:03:45 PM
https://www.wsbtv.com/tower-cams/ (https://www.wsbtv.com/tower-cams/)

ATL airport tower cams.  Not much happening.  

https://www.georgiaaquarium.org/webcam/ocean-voyager/ (https://www.georgiaaquarium.org/webcam/ocean-voyager/)

Closed, but with web cams you can imagine fishing.

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/georgia/atlanta/?cam=atlanta (https://www.earthcam.com/usa/georgia/atlanta/?cam=atlanta)

Centennial park is deserted.  I guess air pollution is way down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 21, 2020, 12:04:02 PM
the local butcher I went to yesterday is a much better option than a place like Omaha Steaks

I haven't opened the package with the 8 rib eyes yet, but I totaled up the bill - Charged me $12.49 a pound

all 8 right about 16 ozs = $97

fresh cut, never frozen
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 21, 2020, 12:04:46 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 21, 2020, 10:24:25 AM
I'm glad at least one person here understands me. :03:


Store here are doing it too. I get it for here. But in Florida?

They should do special hours for non-seniors!!
Until you move down there ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 21, 2020, 12:06:36 PM
the chest freezer I have in my basement is smaller than some, probably about as old as I am.  Almost always chuck full as it is today and has been since long before this crisis

the fools running out to buy chest freezers are probably filling them with gallon jugs of milk!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 21, 2020, 12:09:43 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 21, 2020, 10:26:27 AM
my usual grocery was open 24 hours in the past, I'd rather go there late or early and avoid crowds

I understand they might be doing deep cleaning while closed, just not sure how much that helps after the first 15 minutes of opening the doors to the mob waiting in line
Ever notice the mob or the problem is always someone else except for our selves of course.They're talking about us on Blogs/Boards/Face Space
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 21, 2020, 12:09:55 PM
How good is a freezer without electricity?  Asking for a non-friend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 21, 2020, 12:13:24 PM
27 degrees here this morning, w/o electricity I could simply drag the freezer onto the back patio
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 21, 2020, 12:15:14 PM
OMG Italy just closed parks

maybe could have thought of this a few days ago if not a few weeks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 21, 2020, 12:16:10 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 21, 2020, 10:55:55 AM
My kegerator is actually a 21 cu ft convertible fridge/freezer, so if I took all the kegs and beer out of it, I could store a a frozen side of beef with room to spare. But I don't plan on doing that, so I don't consider that a "freezer" at all.
Priorities,foamy,fermented elixirs is the way to go
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 21, 2020, 12:20:40 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 21, 2020, 12:09:55 PM
How good is a freezer without electricity?  Asking for a non-friend.
You got reason to believe you're going to lose electricity?  Work crews cutting lines in your area or something?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 21, 2020, 12:21:55 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 21, 2020, 12:15:14 PM
OMG Italy just closed parks

maybe could have thought of this a few days ago if not a few weeks

Are parks especially dangerous or something?  The populace already has orders not to mingle.  If they're still doing it, the parks aren't the problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 21, 2020, 12:23:22 PM
I don't think parks are a problem unless folks are clustering together.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 21, 2020, 12:25:11 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 21, 2020, 12:23:22 PM
I don't think parks are a problem unless folks are clustering together.
Yup.  And if they are clustering together, then closing the parks will simply push them into the alleyways and such.  Welding their doors shut might be the only option.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 21, 2020, 12:26:15 PM
Quote from: ELA on March 20, 2020, 08:19:31 PM
Sure Mike, as "toilet paper"

https://twitter.com/GovMikeHuckabee/status/1241004717855080448?s=19
Well if this is circulated enough people will eat less after reading it therefore using less TP.Mother Huckabee must be so proud,so proud,perhaps he should have included his critique of leaves,pin oaks,sugar maples,birch,dogwood,chestnut,elm.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 21, 2020, 12:27:26 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 21, 2020, 12:23:22 PM
I don't think parks are a problem unless folks are clustering together.
similar to your story from last night

folks can't be trusted to do the right thing

close the beaches on Spring Break
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 21, 2020, 12:28:18 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 21, 2020, 12:25:11 PM
 Welding their doors shut might be the only option.
They're out of propane/acetylene it's all been hoarded
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 21, 2020, 12:31:48 PM
Florida is about a week behind the rest of the large states in closing things. The governor screwed the pooch in allowing spring break to happen.

Now all of those assclowns are going to come back North.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 21, 2020, 12:36:54 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 21, 2020, 12:31:48 PM
Florida is about a week behind the rest of the large states in closing things. The governor screwed the pooch in allowing spring break to happen.

Now all of those assclowns are going to come back North.

Texas beaches were a shitshow too, up until midway through this past week.

I do not plan to interact with anyone I know who was down there, or anyone who has kids who went down there, like my neighbors down the street.  Their two kids, who go to Texas Tech and University of Arkansas, were down at the beaches over Spring Break, and are now at home since their classes are canceled.  My neighbor wanted to get together and talk over some beers, and I told him I'd  be happy to do so-- in two weeks.  I love the guy, but he's not taking it very seriously, and I won't be interacting with him until it's all clear.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on March 21, 2020, 12:40:05 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 21, 2020, 11:55:29 AM
I'd rather support the local butcher shop, which has some high end stuff.  We don't eat much meat any more, the wife prefers fish or chicken or lamb.  The steelhead trout is excellent, that is almost all we eat, grilled, when it comes to fish.

The butcher shop is not cheap obviously.  Costco has prime cuts if you want them around $20 a pound or so.
We tried that, but they are sold out on special orders.  We are going to put in an order for a couple weeks out today.  I've never been overly impressed with their cuts.  I know I'm biased, but Knight's in Ann Arbor is still the best northern butcher I've found, nothing has ever topped it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on March 21, 2020, 12:41:06 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 21, 2020, 12:25:11 PM
Yup.  And if they are clustering together, then closing the parks will simply push them into the alleyways and such.  Welding their doors shut might be the only option.



Our playground closed yesterday, which is obviously different from a park.  That makes sense, all those kids, all the surfaces.  But as far as large parks go, I woudl think you'd want to leave those open for walking and jogging.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 21, 2020, 12:45:04 PM
Yeah, our local butcher doesn't have a lot of stock right now. He got hit by the hoarders too. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 21, 2020, 12:46:05 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 21, 2020, 12:04:46 PM
Until you move down there ;D
I'm 53. Gonna be a much longer wait for me to be called a senior.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 21, 2020, 12:51:45 PM
hopefully you'll make it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 21, 2020, 12:52:15 PM
Quote from: ELA on March 21, 2020, 12:41:06 PM
Our playground closed yesterday, which is obviously different from a park.  That makes sense, all those kids, all the surfaces.  But as far as large parks go, I woudl think you'd want to leave those open for walking and jogging.
as long as they're only used properly
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on March 21, 2020, 12:54:44 PM

I bet Schwan's business will increase during this time...  curb side delivery will be appealing.   
 
I find it funny that all the people FB posting nonstop about staying home last week are now posting about food trucks coming around.   Yes, standing in line for a food truck is soooo much safer than social distancing in a restaurant.    

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 21, 2020, 01:04:38 PM
Quote from: Entropy on March 21, 2020, 12:54:44 PM
I bet Schwan's business will increase during this time...  curb side delivery will be appealing. 
 
I find it funny that all the people FB posting nonstop about staying home last week are now posting about food trucks coming around.  Yes, standing in line for a food truck is soooo much safer than social distancing in a restaurant.   



I see people posting on Facebook about how they're social-distancing and keeping groups under ten, while socializing with a DIFFERENT group of ten every evening.

Those are called dinner parties, folks. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on March 21, 2020, 01:44:12 PM
Quote from: Entropy on March 21, 2020, 12:54:44 PM
I bet Schwan's business will increase during this time...  curb side delivery will be appealing. 
 
I find it funny that all the people FB posting nonstop about staying home last week are now posting about food trucks coming around.  Yes, standing in line for a food truck is soooo much safer than social distancing in a restaurant.   


I can see the street from my home office, and we live about 1/3 of the way up a cul de sac, in the back of a neighborhood, so the only reason we get traffic is if it's to one of the 20 or so houses farther up, and I still see the Schwanns truck once or twice a day
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 21, 2020, 01:48:21 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 21, 2020, 01:04:38 PM
socializing with a DIFFERENT group of ten every evening.

Those are called dinner parties, folks.


no chance of "spread" there
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 21, 2020, 02:12:05 PM
We're trying to set up a "virtual happy hour" with our friends in Indianapolis and North Carolina tonight, but the Indy crew might bow out because it's his mom's birthday...

...if it were me, Coronavirus is the best excuse to get OUT of family events that one could have. "Sorry, mom, you know the governor said we shouldn't go out..."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on March 21, 2020, 02:14:58 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 21, 2020, 02:12:05 PM
We're trying to set up a "virtual happy hour" with our friends in Indianapolis and North Carolina tonight, but the Indy crew might bow out because it's his mom's birthday...

...if it were me, Coronavirus is the best excuse to get OUT of family events that one could have. "Sorry, mom, you know the governor said we shouldn't go out..."
We got out of even having to find an excuse for my wife's cousin's baby's first birthday 2 hours away next weekend.  We were never going, but now we don't even have to take crap for it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on March 21, 2020, 02:23:27 PM
Quote from: ELA on March 21, 2020, 02:14:58 PM
We got out of even having to find an excuse for my wife's cousin's baby's first birthday 2 hours away next weekend.  We were never going, but now we don't even have to take crap for it
Two hours? Yeesh.

I think I might be one of the few adults who doesn't mind kids birthday parties, mostly because it lets me see friends with kids who are usually too busy for much. Granted, I don't have my own kids.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 21, 2020, 02:24:52 PM
I don't mind kid's Bday parties as long as there's good food and drink!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on March 21, 2020, 02:27:02 PM
One of our local food trucks did a preorder thing. Go online and get BBQ by the pound, not cheap, but they do good work. I was too late to get some, but they said they had their usual Saturday workload, which was great.

Instead I went to a local market/cafe for one of their very good sandwiches. They had everyone working, but the tone of the "thanks for coming in" from the owner just made my heart break. Really hoping they make it through. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 21, 2020, 02:33:57 PM
Yup, I hear ya.  I grew up in the restaurant business, and it's tough enough without any eternal problems.  I feel for those folks.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on March 21, 2020, 02:37:02 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on March 21, 2020, 02:23:27 PM
Two hours? Yeesh.

I think I might be one of the few adults who doesn't mind kids birthday parties, mostly because it lets me see friends with kids who are usually too busy for much. Granted, I don't have my own kids.
When they are local, I actually enjoy them.  Kids don't really have friends at least until school age.  Their "friends" are just the kids of your friends.  So really all you do is hang out with your friends and day drink.  My kids are with me either way, and that is more enjoyable.

But driving to Akron, to see a cousin we see at Christmas and maybe one other time a year, and my extended family in laws?

Pass.  No matter the occasion.  The easiest part is that she doesn't want to go either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on March 21, 2020, 03:21:07 PM
Quote from: ELA on March 21, 2020, 02:37:02 PM
When they are local, I actually enjoy them.  Kids don't really have friends at least until school age.  Their "friends" are just the kids of your friends.  So really all you do is hang out with your friends and day drink.  My kids are with me either way, and that is more enjoyable.

But driving to Akron, to see a cousin we see at Christmas and maybe one other time a year, and my extended family in laws?

Pass.  No matter the occasion.  The easiest part is that she doesn't want to go either.
I would not drive to Akron from most anywhere, though the one place I've eaten there (Luigi's maybe?) was excellent. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on March 21, 2020, 03:30:45 PM
Technically Richfield, which is just north, but same difference
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 21, 2020, 03:35:24 PM
Quote from: Entropy on March 21, 2020, 12:54:44 PM
I bet Schwan's business will increase during this time...  curb side delivery will be appealing. 
 
I find it funny that all the people FB posting nonstop about staying home last week are now posting about food trucks coming around.  Yes, standing in line for a food truck is soooo much safer than social distancing in a restaurant.   


Well, it is.  You're exposing yourself to the person in front of you and behind you, and the food handler.
In a restaurant, you're exposing yourself to whoever comes near you AND everyone who sat at that table, previously.  IF they're disinfecting the tables, I doubt they're doing much with the chairs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 21, 2020, 04:02:22 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/8FiTuNE.jpg)

(https://i.imgur.com/DwnEHzz.jpg)(https://i.imgur.com/z2nVqvH.jpg)

The park today, people were spread out but it was fairly crowded overall.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 21, 2020, 05:19:15 PM
So.. football.

Calling it now. It's not happening this year guys. 

Baseball is done too, and there will be no playoffs for NHL and NBA.

Discuss.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 21, 2020, 05:41:02 PM
Quote from: ELA on March 21, 2020, 02:37:02 PM
Pass.  No matter the occasion.  The easiest part is that she doesn't want to go either.
Hey you don't have to explain your guilt pangs to us.Unless your close and much closer mileage wise 2 hrs is a long way to go for a B-Day party.Just tell them they don't have to come to your kids party,unless they already did.Then I'd fall back on the taking precautions route,which in fact you are.Now go have a beer you must feel terrible
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 21, 2020, 05:42:40 PM
I'd say there is some chance of a part season for baseball, I hope anyway.  CFB?  If we cancel that it means the wheels have well and truly come off and we're in a deep depression with huge unemployment numbers.  

I wonder at some point if the "authorities" realize a depression is worse than just letting the disease do its thing.  That sounds awful of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 21, 2020, 05:43:06 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 21, 2020, 05:19:15 PM
So.. football.

Calling it now. It's not happening this year guys.

Baseball is done too, and there will be no playoffs for NHL and NBA.

Discuss.
Well then do the berks get paid?They should have to bare the burden like the rest of us.No coin sorry fellas.The one good thing that may come out of this is society might seewhat a sham pro sports really is
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 21, 2020, 05:57:29 PM
IF sports do happen, and I think it's a B1G IF, there will be no fans in the stands.

There has been some good news today on the medical front. We shall see.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 21, 2020, 06:10:46 PM
I don't know how this plays out.  It is POSSIBLE the virus "disappears" this summer.  It is possible we figure out how to manage it, akin to the regular flu.

And maybe "we" decide it's out and we just have to let it run its course after having hopefully prevented the hospitals from being overrun.

Sunlight almost certainly is its nemesis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 21, 2020, 06:16:11 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/who-officials-say-at-least-20-coronavirus-vaccines-are-in-development-in-global-race-for-cure.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/who-officials-say-at-least-20-coronavirus-vaccines-are-in-development-in-global-race-for-cure.html)

Some absurdity here IMHO.  If we get a vaccine but not enough for everyone, the health care workers should be first in line, then other folks exposed to the public.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 21, 2020, 06:33:23 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 21, 2020, 06:16:11 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/who-officials-say-at-least-20-coronavirus-vaccines-are-in-development-in-global-race-for-cure.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/who-officials-say-at-least-20-coronavirus-vaccines-are-in-development-in-global-race-for-cure.html)

Some absurdity here IMHO.  If we get a vaccine but not enough for everyone, the health care workers should be first in line, then other folks exposed to the public.
First responders, grocery store workers, pharmacists, restaurant staff, delivery staff, etc. Health care workers for sure.


Certainly not spring break assclowns or their idiot parents.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on March 21, 2020, 06:59:58 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 21, 2020, 05:42:40 PM
I'd say there is some chance of a part season for baseball, I hope anyway.  CFB?  If we cancel that it means the wheels have well and truly come off and we're in a deep depression with huge unemployment numbers. 

I wonder at some point if the "authorities" realize a depression is worse than just letting the disease do its thing.  That sounds awful of course.
I think your last two sentences is an interesting point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 21, 2020, 07:47:21 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 21, 2020, 05:19:15 PM
So.. football.

Calling it now. It's not happening this year guys.

Baseball is done too, and there will be no playoffs for NHL and NBA.

Discuss.
Wrong

Wrong

Wrong

Wrong
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on March 21, 2020, 08:09:43 PM
Our idiot governor announced a press conference for this evening at 7 that caused a statewide panic because everyone assumed more restrictions were coming.  There was a huge run on the grocery stores. So he has the press conference to announce he isn’t shutting the state down yet but to keep up the social distancing.

He probably caused the virus to spread more than anyone in the state by causing people to panic and congregate at stores.  The other day he held a press conference where he said, “the only way to beat this thing is to join hands and stay apart.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on March 21, 2020, 08:16:27 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 21, 2020, 07:47:21 PM
Wrong

Wrong

Wrong

Wrong

I think we'll get a half season of baseball.  There will be no NBA or NHL playoffs though
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on March 21, 2020, 08:18:01 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 21, 2020, 06:10:46 PM
I don't know how this plays out.  It is POSSIBLE the virus "disappears" this summer.  It is possible we figure out how to manage it, akin to the regular flu.

And maybe "we" decide it's out and we just have to let it run its course after having hopefully prevented the hospitals from being overrun.

Sunlight almost certainly is its nemesis.
It's certainly better for the "greater good" to let it run its course.  But tyranny of the majority is an awful way to run any civilization
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 21, 2020, 09:17:10 PM
At some point, I think "we" let it run its course, or we lose our entire civilization, seriously.  We can't maintain this for very long.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Drew4UTk on March 21, 2020, 09:31:51 PM
this afternoon i was mowing and trimming, fiddling around in the wood shop, pressure washing and generally making a lot of noise.. 

between the weed eater and leaf blower, i thought i heard a voice crying for help.  turns out i did. 

the lady across the street is 85 years old, and was dragging herself across her back/side yard.  i sprinted over there to lend a hand.  she had 'fallen and couldn't get up'.... not really a joking matter, but... well... i joke about everything. 

after determining she didn't break anything by asking a series of questions and poking at her hip which she said took the brunt (that and her head), i went to scoop her up... carried her to her sofa and set her down, and went to retrieve her other neighbors who are some younger than her and have known her a lot longer than i have. 

so.. anyway.. i was a little short of breath after carrying her, and after she realized she was actually going to see the inside of her house tonight (she is a slow crawler) as opposed to tomorrow, it dawned on her i was breathing somewhat hard.. (i'd sprinted over to her when i saw her, and then carried her a considerable distance- all in the last three or so minutes)- she asked me "do you think you may have been exposed to that covid?" and said "if you have, i'm a goner"... I thought she was making a joke (she was embarrassed and it would have made sense)..... she wasn't... she was serious.. i think... 

i hope she didn't get the 'covid' from me... she promised to make me a pie in appreciation.  she's made a few for me in the past for various things i've helped her with... she does a fine job of it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 21, 2020, 11:07:24 PM
Holy shit Drew. HOLY SHIT.


CDawg... No more lamb burgers for you. Sit tight.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 22, 2020, 12:13:17 AM
Quote from: ELA on March 21, 2020, 03:30:45 PM
Technically Richfield, which is just north, but same difference
Some nice country there if it hasn't been developed already.Tore down the Coliseum - one of the finest BBall/Hockey Arenas I've ever been in.Made sense when they built it though
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on March 22, 2020, 12:34:45 AM
Quote from: Drew4UTk on March 21, 2020, 09:31:51 PM
so.. anyway.. i was a little short of breath after carrying her, and after she realized she was actually going to see the inside of her house tonight (she is a slow crawler) as opposed to tomorrow, it dawned on her i was breathing somewhat hard.. (i'd sprinted over to her when i saw her, and then carried her a considerable distance- all in the last three or so minutes)- she asked me "do you think you may have been exposed to that covid?" and said "if you have, i'm a goner"... I thought she was making a joke (she was embarrassed and it would have made sense)..... she wasn't... she was serious.. i think...

i hope she didn't get the 'covid' from me... she promised to make me a pie in appreciation.  she's made a few for me in the past for various things i've helped her with... she does a fine job of it.
Drew, She is not the only elderly person who is scared. My dad is scared; he is 87, and has his full faculties. He works to keep busy, and believes he would die without being on a work schedule. This week he told the person who schedules him at Safeway in Tucson where he sacks groceries, to suspend him from the schedule.

He has two squamous cell cancers that were to be removed this week, and he took himself off the surgical calendar, fearing he could be infected by COVID-19 at the doctor's office and bring it home to my mother. Squamous cell should be removed quickly.

I think I will send him the surgical masks I was going to wear on my flight to Tucson, which I am canceling, so he feels better about going to the doctor.

My 25-year old daughter is scared. She works as a checker at a grocery store. Checkers are on the frontlines of the COVID-19 crisis. She has had a week off work for spring break from physical therapy school. She is scared of unknowingly passing something to an elderly PT patient and living with the lifelong guilt if that were to happen. I am not so sure she will be working with patients, though, now that school is being handled remotely.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 22, 2020, 12:39:12 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 20, 2020, 03:26:23 PM
Hope > snarky remarks
I hadn't seen this.  It's not snarky to be realistic about this, man.  Living in some sort of optimistic fantasyland about it is how even more people get infected/die.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 22, 2020, 12:45:58 AM
Cases in the U.S.:
.
March 14:  2,943
March 15:  3.680
March 16:  4,663
March 17:  6,411
March 18:  9,259
March 19:  13,789
March 20:  19,383
March 21:  24,207...and the day isn't over yet
.

Just under 10x growth in a week.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on March 22, 2020, 12:51:03 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 21, 2020, 05:19:15 PM
So.. football.

Calling it now. It's not happening this year guys.

Baseball is done too, and there will be no playoffs for NHL and NBA.

Discuss.
I am of the opinion the deaths are coming in waves, and that the timing of such waves will vary with geography, and that will stretch out the chronology.

I cannot see MLB resuming before August, and I would guess the odds of MLB in 2020 are probably about 30%. Right now COVID-19 is raging in New York, Washington, and perhaps California. But not as much in other areas. Those other areas will get it later in the natural course of events, and you just cannot play MLB only in NYC in August when COVID-19 calms down there but is raging in Chicago and Detroit.

I would guess there is a 40% chance of college football starting in October. But, I am probably overly optimistic. Do they start practice the 2nd or 3rd week of September to resume football in Mid-October? My guess is that there still could be hotspots in September. 

My further guess is this will play out a bit like the 1918 flu where there were three waves, or humps in the chronological graph. We tamp it down, relax restrictions, and it takes off again, and there will be restrictions back in place, and the pattern will repeat. I now see the talking news heads and their experts estimating about as many as 80% of the population becoming infected. That is very bad news for people in my parents' age category, and perhaps for me, even though I am still somewhat robust.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 22, 2020, 06:52:32 AM
I don't  trust figures on "confirmed cases" as being relevant to much.  My kid would not be counted obviously, but has every symptom and had exposure.  I presume (?) confirmed means a person who has been tested positive, which could well be only 10% of the cases out there.  And, as testing becomes more prominent the number should grow just because we test more people.  The folks who need testing are health care workers and others who are essential, not a patient who presents with every symptom.

My neighbor thus far is asympotomatic.  His potential exposure was his flight from Paris to here Sunday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 22, 2020, 07:50:00 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 22, 2020, 12:39:12 AM
I hadn't seen this.  It's not snarky to be realistic about this, man.  Living in some sort of optimistic fantasyland about it is how even more people get infected/die.
Hope isn't fantasy land it's a thing and nobody said ignore precautions - where did you get that fantasy land?You don't have to respond really
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 22, 2020, 08:43:01 AM
https://www.atlantamagazine.com/news-culture-articles/atlantas-latest-coronavirus-updates-saturday-march-21/?fbclid=IwAR1mUYMCibm-0Mesb_grdpZJXl5GkmR6QPHbIjK7kcaPclg58dKpk_pvSL8 (https://www.atlantamagazine.com/news-culture-articles/atlantas-latest-coronavirus-updates-saturday-march-21/?fbclid=IwAR1mUYMCibm-0Mesb_grdpZJXl5GkmR6QPHbIjK7kcaPclg58dKpk_pvSL8)

Not really much new around here, cases continue to rise as expected.  Italy looking worse and worse, they may not be anywhere near a peak.

China and Russia to me have faked their figures.

I'd like to know what is meant by "confirmed cases".  Does that mean only those who tested positive, or does it include those who doctors determined by symptoms they are positive?  If a person has all the symptoms, should "we" really waste a rare test kit on them?  (

I'd reserve testing for HC workers and any others more exposed than say I am.  If I get it, I'll stay low and won't need a test, I think.  It doesn't change my treatment.  The wife would get it as well and we might need support from neighbors, just as we are supporting our neighbor.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 22, 2020, 08:51:31 AM
There is no doubt China and Russia are lying about their numbers. The only question is by how much.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Drew4UTk on March 22, 2020, 09:24:10 AM
I too have some n95 masks that I picked up a good while back for when I sand woods like Sapele, purple heart, or bloodwood.. they're semi kinda pseudo toxic.  I'll gladly "donate" them... a matter of fact the guy two doors down is a paramedic on the island who is off today ( I wish he was around yesterday)....

@Cincydawg (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=870) how is #2 fairing?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 22, 2020, 09:36:48 AM
#2 is over the worst of it, two days were pretty bad apparently (Tue/Wed).  #1 has been clear thus far, working from home, has a computer based job anyway.  She was just offered another job with a large raise and turned it down fearing that company situation was potentially unstable.  She likes her current job and has money to spare.  She was just asking me about refinancing her home loan in a month or three.

That child has always been very "tight" with money to the extent that at times I've had to encourage her to spend something on herself.  She lived in NYC for four years and hardly spent anything, part of that was working as an unpaid intern, so I was paying her bills.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Drew4UTk on March 22, 2020, 09:40:37 AM
Good for her. 

When lenders start reacting to the rates dropping it may be the best time in history of time to refinance... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 22, 2020, 09:47:17 AM
I refinanced in November.  I took out the original loan in May 2018.  I had no idea rates would drop from there.  My payment dropped $500 a month and it went from a 5 year ARM to a ten (which gives me more flexibility).  I will look at the numbers in a month or so.

They told me they were really backed up in November on refis, but it got done in very short order and the closing attorney came here for closing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 22, 2020, 09:50:26 AM
I just saw a news item that Border Patrol uncovered a large stash of toilet paper coming in from Mexico.  It was hidden under a pile of cocaine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 11:11:48 AM
first confirmed case in my county

hopefully folks here will take this more seriously now
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 11:17:29 AM
if it's a good idea for NYC and New Jersey and San Fran to limit all travel (being outside your home or esential business)

why wouldn't it be a good idea for all other major cities and minor cities?

heck, why not for everyone?

obviously the public needs a strict definition of essential travel:  

I'm not sure a trip to Olive Garden for carry out is essential
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 22, 2020, 11:26:51 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 11:17:29 AM
if it's a good idea for NYC and New Jersey and San Fran to limit all travel (being outside your home or esential business)

why wouldn't it be a good idea for all other major cities and minor cities?

heck, why not for everyone?

obviously the public needs a strict definition of essential travel: 

I'm not sure a trip to Olive Garden for carry out is essential
Only if you have no food in the house.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 11:39:21 AM
if that's the case, do NOT go to Olive Garden for a single meal or a few meals, go to the grocery and purchase 2 weeks worth of meals in one trip out

as you know both daughters work in the service food area as do their friends, tough on that industry and tough on folks that don't cook for themselves well, but standing inline at the food truck or the human interaction that takes place for delivered or picked up single meals

I feel we should try locking things down VERY tightly and see if it's effective.  If not, then F it and open things up and let the virus run it's course

this "half in" crap doesn't seem to be working on either end
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 22, 2020, 11:42:39 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 11:39:21 AM
I feel we should try locking things down VERY tightly and see if it's effective.  If not, then F it and open things up and let the virus run it's course

this "half in" crap doesn't seem to be working on either end
Not a bad thought.  We are pretty effectively shot down here.  Folks getting take out are generally not standing in larger groups waiting.  I called in my order and just picked it up.  I'm interested in whether the city sees any benefit in slowing this thing down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 22, 2020, 11:54:22 AM
If it's contactless pickup, which all the ones I have seen are, then I'm not sure what the danger is?  

People need to go to the grocery store.  People need to get food.  I don't see that limiting avenues to do so, when there is little or no risk, is a necessary step.  It's actually the opposite.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 22, 2020, 12:00:15 PM
In a way, I'm happy to Illinois on lockdown. I don't like our governor, but I'm pleased with his decision on this.

I'm still very pissed about holding the election last Tuesday though. He should have postponed it.

(https://mcusercontent.com/7fe208d3c85ffa1d03aeaade4/images/82366e1b-968b-428f-ac23-64f34798c2c9.png) (https://illinoispolicy.us1.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7fe208d3c85ffa1d03aeaade4&id=bfc2e0d60c&e=97303474eb)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 12:35:07 PM
watching Iowa Press

IOWA -- Twenty-three more Iowans have tested positive for COVID-19, according to the Iowa Department of Public Health.

There are now 68 cases that have been confirmed in Iowa. The Iowa Department of Public Health says 1,049 negative tests have been conducted at the State Hygienic Lab.


and now tests are in short supply
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 12:50:23 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 22, 2020, 11:54:22 AM
If it's contactless pickup, which all the ones I have seen are, then I'm not sure what the danger is? 

People need to go to the grocery store.  People need to get food.  I don't see that limiting avenues to do so, when there is little or no risk, is a necessary step.  It's actually the opposite.




utee, as you know the public isn't intelligent enough to do what's right.  See this pic on the front page of our local paper showing a "pickup"


(https://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/siouxcityjournal.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/7/d9/7d92b85e-a51d-5d4a-9ef8-d3e1dbc4c7ca/5e768494cff69.image.jpg?resize=1200%2C785)

(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fdata%3Aimage%2Fpng%3Bbase64%2CiVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAABAAAAAJCAQAAACRI2S5AAAAEklEQVR42mM8U8%2BAFzCOKgADAHdUC60wg0dkAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC&hash=46c944d3baca823867255edb2ee811df)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 22, 2020, 12:54:43 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 12:50:23 PM
utee, as you know the public isn't intelligent enough to do what's right.  See this pic on the front page of our local paper showing a "pickup"
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fdata%3Aimage%2Fpng%3Bbase64%2CiVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAABAAAAAJCAQAAACRI2S5AAAAEklEQVR42mM8U8%2BAFzCOKgADAHdUC60wg0dkAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC&hash=46c944d3baca823867255edb2ee811df)

But we're not going to be able to enforce martial law, which is the only way to prevent idiots from being idiots.  There just aren't enough military, national guard, and police, to enforce it.  So it's fruitless to suggest it.

Meanwhile, cutting off access to food is absolutely certain to create further panic.  Not just panic buying, I'm talking about people reacting violently, with weapons.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 22, 2020, 01:16:08 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/uVF2Ddy.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 01:20:33 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 22, 2020, 12:54:43 PM
But we're not going to be able to enforce martial law, which is the only way to prevent idiots from being idiots.  There just aren't enough military, national guard, and police, to enforce it.  So it's fruitless to suggest it.

Meanwhile, cutting off access to food is absolutely certain to create further panic.  Not just panic buying, I'm talking about people reacting violently, with weapons.


I'm not suggesting martial law or cutting off access to food.
Merely cutting off access to some opportunities for the idiots. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 22, 2020, 01:24:40 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 11:39:21 AM
this "half in" crap doesn't seem to be working on either end
We don't know that, actually. Because of the lack of testing resources, and because of the median incubation period being ~5 days (but it can be more than that), we haven't been on restriction long enough to have a clue. 

The first lockdown was the Bay Area, 6 days ago. Orange County followed the day after. NY/IL just basically over the weekend. NJ just announced. A lot of states are still only halfway there. 

It'll be at least a week before we can tell if we've slowed anything. And even then we may not know, because the shortages of test kits might mean that as tests become available, we'll start actually confirming the cases that we all expect exist and the numbers may still show exponential growth. 

But I wouldn't say for a second that we can claim the measures taken so far aren't helping. We don't have enough time to claim they are, either. It's too soon to call.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 22, 2020, 01:38:53 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 12:50:23 PM
utee, as you know the public isn't intelligent enough to do what's right. 
This.This.This.This.This.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 22, 2020, 01:46:18 PM
Please note the date of this post by the WHO. China lies.

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 22, 2020, 01:46:49 PM
Who is intelligent enough to do what is right?  Bob McNamara and the Whiz Kids?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 02:14:21 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 22, 2020, 01:24:40 PM
We don't know that, actually. Because of the lack of testing resources, and because of the median incubation period being ~5 days (but it can be more than that), we haven't been on restriction long enough to have a clue.

The first lockdown was the Bay Area, 6 days ago. Orange County followed the day after. NY/IL just basically over the weekend. NJ just announced. A lot of states are still only halfway there.

It'll be at least a week before we can tell if we've slowed anything. And even then we may not know, because the shortages of test kits might mean that as tests become available, we'll start actually confirming the cases that we all expect exist and the numbers may still show exponential growth.

But I wouldn't say for a second that we can claim the measures taken so far aren't helping. We don't have enough time to claim they are, either. It's too soon to call.
I would say the measures taken so far are helping, just not enough to fend off lockdowns to this point.
If the end game is lockdown, better to be doing it today than waiting
I'd guess the Bay Area, Orange County, NY, NJ, and IL wish they would have done this sooner in hindsight
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 22, 2020, 02:18:39 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 02:14:21 PM
I would say the measures taken so far are helping, just not enough to fend off lockdowns to this point.
If the end game is lockdown, better to be doing it today than waiting
I'd guess the Bay Area, Orange County, NY, NJ, and IL wish they would have done this sooner in hindsight
Yeah, but elections!!

I sent a scathing message to our governor on this. I'm thinking I won't hear back.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 22, 2020, 02:19:44 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 22, 2020, 01:46:18 PM
Please note the date of this post by the WHO. China lies.

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152

I would edit this to say "dictators lie when there's really bad news".
(yes this includes Jinping and Trump)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 22, 2020, 02:21:11 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 02:14:21 PM

If the end game is lockdown, better to be doing it today than waiting
I'd guess the Bay Area, Orange County, NY, NJ, and IL wish they would have done this sooner in hindsight
This is part of the stupidity. 
Half-measure, check and see how bad it is.
Another half-measure, check and see how bad it is.
Repeat.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 22, 2020, 02:21:31 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 22, 2020, 01:46:49 PM
Who is intelligent enough to do what is right?  Bob McNamara and the Whiz Kids?
Not these dumbass kids.


(https://s28209.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/beach-florida-3.jpg.optimal.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 02:23:57 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 22, 2020, 02:18:39 PM
Yeah, but elections!!

I sent a scathing message to our governor on this. I'm thinking I won't hear back.
can you imagine the november election being called off for public safety?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 22, 2020, 02:25:28 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 01:20:33 PM
I'm not suggesting martial law or cutting off access to food.
Merely cutting off access to some opportunities for the idiots.
If you're suggesting anything further than the current shut-downs already in place in the largest, most population-dense cities in our country, then you are calling for martial law.  It would be the only way to enforce anything further than what's currently happening.

And martial law isn't going to work for any number of reasons.  

You can call it the dangers of living in a free society, but that's where we are right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 22, 2020, 02:26:29 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 02:23:57 PM
can you imagine the november election being called off for public safety?
Hopefully we will be past this by then, but yeah, I could see it if it were to happen today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 02:27:58 PM
I assume the Chinese implemented martial law in Wuhan.  

If they did, was it effective?

I suppose their stats aren't reliable, but it would be helpful

I assume Italy did NOT implement martial law or even lock downs since they just restricted parks yesterday.

We have a pretty good idea that what they've done has not been effective
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 22, 2020, 02:28:08 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 22, 2020, 02:26:29 PM
Hopefully we will be past this by then, but yeah, I could see it if it were to happen today.
There are conspiracy theorists asserting this is the end-game of our current president...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 02:30:27 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 22, 2020, 02:25:28 PM
If you're suggesting anything further than the current shut-downs already in place in the largest, most population-dense cities in our country, then you are calling for martial law.  It would be the only way to enforce anything further than what's currently happening.

And martial law isn't going to work for any number of reasons. 

You can call it the dangers of living in a free society, but that's where we are right now.
I'm not calling for martial law.

I'm calling for the lock downs in the cities being for everyone

under the current big city lock downs, is a trip to Olive Garden to pickup a single meal allowed??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 22, 2020, 02:32:56 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 02:30:27 PM
I'm not calling for martial law.

I'm calling for the lock downs in the cities being for everyone

under the current big city lock downs, is a trip to Olive Garden to pickup a single meal allowed??

Probably?  And why shouldn't it be?  It's a method of getting food. It can be done in a contactless manner.  Arguably it's less risky than going into a grocery store.

Like I said, just TRY to stop people from having access to avenues for getting food, and see how quickly the violent response comes.




Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 02:33:10 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 22, 2020, 02:28:08 PM
There are conspiracy theorists asserting this is the end-game of our current president...
some crazies reach to politicize EVERYTHING

Donkeys are using the virus to assure Trump isn't re-elected

Elephants are using the virus to assure Trump is re-elected

neither side of the isle knows what the F is going to happen

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 02:35:39 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 22, 2020, 02:32:56 PM
Probably?  And why shouldn't it be?  It's a method of getting food. It can be done in a contactless manner.  Arguably it's less risky than going into a grocery store.

Like I said, just TRY to stop people from having access to avenues for getting food, and see how quickly the violent response comes.





obviously, I've just stated that this seems like an ineffective way to acquire food with more risk of contamination than is needed.
no one need starve if carry out / pickup service is banned
no need for riots and looting
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 22, 2020, 02:40:17 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 02:35:39 PM
obviously, I've just stated that this seems like an ineffective way to acquire food with more risk of contamination than is needed.
no one need starve if carry out / pickup service is banned
no need for riots and looting

I can get carry-out pickup much much faster than a trip to the grocery store right now, which now takes several hours currently, in my town.  It also involves standing in a long line of people.  The pickup window at the pizza place requires only minutes and the closest I come to another human is maybe 10 feet.

So tell me which one is riskier?

You're dying on the wrong hill here.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 22, 2020, 02:43:12 PM
When (not if) a food-handler is infected, everyone picking up their pasta primavera is infected.  That's the argument.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 22, 2020, 02:45:01 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 02:23:57 PM
can you imagine the november election being called off for public safety?
There would be no need for this.  But if you believe Trump wouldn't leave, even if he lost, this would be a convenient outcome for him.  You can do anything in the name of national security, why not public safety?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 22, 2020, 02:45:52 PM
I actually want the media to lie when/if we do flatten the curve and our efforts pay off.  The minute people think "we did it!", they'll go back out into the world and it'll start back up again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 22, 2020, 03:10:19 PM
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/22/819840467/sen-rand-paul-has-tested-positive-for-the-coronavirus?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=nprblogscoronavirusliveupdates (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/22/819840467/sen-rand-paul-has-tested-positive-for-the-coronavirus?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=nprblogscoronavirusliveupdates)

I presume this thing is simple already out there and we're just trying to slow the spread.  It seems like it is headed into very deep waters.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 03:19:13 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 22, 2020, 02:40:17 PM
I can get carry-out pickup much much faster than a trip to the grocery store right now, which now takes several hours currently, in my town.  It also involves standing in a long line of people.  The pickup window at the pizza place requires only minutes and the closest I come to another human is maybe 10 feet.

So tell me which one is riskier?

You're dying on the wrong hill here. 

Dude,

If you're picking up enough pizza at the window to feed your family for two weeks w/o another trip out for food I'll die on the hill
2 trips a day for 2 weeks =more risk than one trip to the market
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 22, 2020, 03:24:53 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 22, 2020, 02:43:12 PM
When (not if) a food-handler is infected, everyone picking up their pasta primavera is infected.  That's the argument.
Same thing for a checker at the grocery store.

No difference at all, except the checker is processing far more people per day.

So, there's no argument at all.

Heck, YOU'RE the one that was arguing in favor of food trucks just yesterday.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 22, 2020, 03:28:51 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 03:19:13 PM
Dude,

If you're picking up enough pizza at the window to feed your family for two weeks w/o another trip out for food I'll die on the hill
2 trips a day for 2 weeks =more risk than one trip to the market

Plenty of people aren't eating out 2x per day.  Also, plenty of people aren't buying 2 weeks worth of  food at the grocery store, many of them because they can't afford it.  Buying one cheap-ass XL pizza at the drive-thru is something they CAN manage, though.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 03:38:39 PM
food

and especially pizza is much cheaper at the grocery

and most folks that can't afford two weeks of food at the grocery probably wasted their budgets on toilet paper
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 22, 2020, 03:39:50 PM
Tulip bulbs, I'm cornering the market on tulip bulbs....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 22, 2020, 03:46:11 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 03:38:39 PM
food

and especially pizza is much cheaper at the grocery

and most folks that can't afford two weeks of food at the grocery probably wasted their budgets on toilet paper

This is really a stupid argument FF.  I can get an XL from my cheapest take-out place for $6.  That's cheaper than the grocery store for the same amount of food by weight. It is NOT more expensive, it simply isn't.

I also don't have to wait in a multiple-hours-long line around hundreds of potentially infected people to do it.  I can wait in my car and interact with only one person, a person I never come into close contact with.  

Again, this is a stupid hill to die on but your trademark is stirring the pot on stupid shit so I'll leave you to it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Drew4UTk on March 22, 2020, 04:02:37 PM
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=3150686661632153&set=a.199445616756287&type=3

shared this elsewhere... great idea... 

elderly given two pieces of construction paper.. one green one red... if they need help, meds, food, ect... swap the red one for the green and folks can see it.. i'm heading to drug store to get some now- a friend works there and is holding it for me... going to hand them to some elderly on my street. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 04:07:41 PM
volume of food by weight and the pizza shop beats the grocery?

and it's cheaper

you win

we should close walmart and the grocery and have everyone go thru the McDonalds drive thru and olive garden for curb service or just get Dominos to deliver stacks of pizza
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 22, 2020, 04:21:02 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 04:07:41 PM
volume of food by weight and the pizza shop beats the grocery?

and it's cheaper

you win

we should close walmart and the grocery and have everyone go thru the McDonalds drive thru and olive garden for curb service or just get Dominos to deliver stacks of pizza

It might be less risky.  Have you seen the people that shop at Walmart?  Infected carriers, the entire lot of them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 04:29:05 PM
I don't go to Walmart ever

I'm relatively fearless regarding most things in life, but Walmart is scary 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 22, 2020, 04:37:43 PM
I venture to Wally World about once a month for some basics and go early in the morning where the only folks there are their folks restocking.  It is a rather strange place.

I recall watching K-Mart erode from being an OK discount place to get stuff to a run down place to a flat out nasty place where no one should shop to closed up.  Walmart is in Step 2 I think.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 04:57:34 PM
Iowa's salons, barber shops, medical spas, massage therapists, tattoo shops and swimming pools will be closed until March 31, Gov. Kim Reynolds announced at a news conference Sunday.

She signed an executive order Sunday, which will take effect at 10 p.m., she said. She has also suspended foreclosures on residential, commercial and agriculture properties.


_________________________________________________ _____

and more than a few times during her press conference she pleaded with Iowans to do the right thing......

stay home if you feel ill


why not simply stay home if you don't need to be out and about

some folks are contagious w/o feeling symptoms
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 22, 2020, 06:36:25 PM
I really don't understand these 1-week measures at all.  For us at work, it was we're off until March 30th.  Then April 11th.  THIS IS A MATHEMATICAL PROBLEM - and these 1 and 2-week measures only get us to when more people will be infected and dying. 
It's evidence that the various decision-makers across the country don't know what in the hell they're doing.  Not even a little.
.
Normally, giving something some time and then checking on it is a prudent idea.  Sure.  I get it.  But this is not that.  We know, with certainty, that it will be worse in a week. Worse in 2.  It is not a 'maybe' thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 22, 2020, 06:39:18 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 22, 2020, 03:24:53 PM
Same thing for a checker at the grocery store.

No difference at all, except the checker is processing far more people per day.

So, there's no argument at all.

Heck, YOU'RE the one that was arguing in favor of food trucks just yesterday. 
I was explaining his point.  You seemed not to fathom it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 22, 2020, 06:42:18 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 22, 2020, 06:39:18 PM
I was explaining his point.  You seemed not to fathom it.
I understood it fine, thanks.

Didn't agree with it, certainly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 22, 2020, 06:42:45 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 22, 2020, 09:50:26 AM
I just saw a news item that Border Patrol uncovered a large stash of toilet paper coming in from Mexico.  It was hidden under a pile of cocaine.
Gives a whole new meaning to the word "crackhead"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 06:47:15 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 22, 2020, 06:36:25 PM
I really don't understand these 1-week measures at all.  
this week shut down hair salons

next week?

then the week after that

until it's too late, then ban all unneeded activity

the only explanation is to ease folks into this so they don't panic - I think most are past that point
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 22, 2020, 07:00:38 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 06:47:15 PM
this week shut down hair salons

next week?

then the week after that

until it's too late, then ban all unneeded activity

the only explanation is to ease folks into this so they don't panic - I think most are past that point

The most dangerous thing, is that these half-measuers are already burning out the populace.  By the time we get to the "ban all unneeded activity" point, a large chunk of people will have already been hunkered down for 4 weeks.  Then you're going to ask them do do another 2 months?  

Good luck with that.

Like CD already said, we're realistically only a couple weeks away from the point where we're going to have to abandon it completely and let it run its course. I;m not advocating that, it's certainly not what I'd like to see, but that's where we're going to find ourselves.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on March 22, 2020, 07:23:18 PM
Checking in quickly. 

Gov. Tim Walz has been doing a good job at the helm during this crisis. Driving the point home that this isn't anything to screw around with. I'm expecting the shelter-in-place order to come soon. I'll admit the initial . Schools are currently closed in MN until at least Friday, and I'm expecting a sizable extension of that during the week. I'm also firmly in the close-it-down camp, but it took some convincing to get the Mrs. there.

Both the Mrs. and I are fortunate enough to be able to work from home, and whose positions aren't going anywhere in the coming bloodletting. If anything, my wife has had a very very busy week getting all of her colleagues up to snuff on online teaching, as well as supporting her students as their careers have been turned upside down on a dime.  Speaking of bloodletting, unemployment insurance claims went from 2,500 the week ending March 13 to 98,000 a week later.

Our agency leadership had the foresight to tell us Thursday the 12th to start operating under the assumption you won't be physically at your desk for a while, and to make yourself as mobile as possible. Last week actually worked out pretty good, but we did some furniture reconfiguration to make it easier to delineate when the workday is done for both of us.

As far as to-go food goes, I would think that using wipes or soapy water to clean the outside of the containers breaks up anything there, and throwing said food into the oven and heat it to bacteria-killing temperature solve that issue.

We're getting a curbside pickup tomorrow from a regional grocery chain, and I'm still working on the procedure for bringing the stuff into the house. Leave the non-perishables in the car for 24 hours, then wash down the perishables with soapy water or the Lysol wipes prior to placement? Any advice is greatly appreciated.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NywTcGOUkE (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NywTcGOUkE)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 22, 2020, 08:21:06 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 06:47:15 PM
this week shut down hair salons

next week?

then the week after that

until it's too late, then ban all unneeded activity

the only explanation is to ease folks into this so they don't panic - I think most are past that point
How many ribeyes did you serve last night? Medium rare, rare? well? How many people?

8?

Asking for a friend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 08:34:25 PM
served 6 guys, my golf cart partner turned 55.

I failed to grill all 6 to rare/med rare - 130 degrees

2 or 3 were med rare, 3 or 4 were med.

I'm still upset about it.

no complaints from the guys, all compliments 

the rib eyes were rated choice, but they were either top of the choice rating or prime

wish I would have taken pics of the marbling 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 08:36:09 PM
the 2 steaks that weren't grilled were sent home with the Birthday boy.

He cares for his 94 year old father.  I'd guess they can get two meals out of them by sharing a 16oz rib eye
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: mcwterps1 on March 22, 2020, 09:09:15 PM
Wondering if the Flu Task Force is going to help with this hoax? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 09:43:26 PM
watching the Blues Brothers on Starz Comedy
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 22, 2020, 09:44:41 PM
Watching Star Wars on Bluray.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 09:58:33 PM
Curtis:
Well, the Sister was right. You boys could use a little churching up. Slide on down to the Triple Rock, and catch Rev. Cleophus. You boys listen to what he's got to say.

Jake:
Curtis, I don't want to listen to no jive-ass preacher talking to me about Heaven and Hell.

Curtis:
Jake, you get wise. You get to church.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 22, 2020, 10:01:29 PM
Darth Vader:

Don't be too proud of this technological terror you've constructed.  The ability to destroy a planet is insignificant next to the power of The Force. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 10:16:15 PM
Donald 'Duck' Dunn: We had a band powerful enough to turn goat piss into gasoline.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 22, 2020, 10:22:47 PM
Admiral Motti:

Don't try to frighten us with your sorcerer's ways, Lord Vader. Your sad devotion to that ancient religion has not helped you conjure up the stolen data tapes, or given you clairvoyance enough to find the Rebels' hidden fort...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 10:37:10 PM
Jake: "Give us a bottle of your finest Champagne, five shrimp cocktails, and some bread for my brother."

PeeWee: "We have a Dom Perignon '71 at 120 dollars"

Jake: "That'll be fine, pal."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 22, 2020, 10:49:43 PM
Luke:

She's rich
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on March 22, 2020, 11:07:23 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 22, 2020, 01:46:18 PM
Please note the date of this post by the WHO. China lies.

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152

China lies and the WHO covers for China because it gets a lot of money from China.
The Chicoms know who (heh! it should be whom) to buy off.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 22, 2020, 11:09:07 PM
CDC > WHO when it comes to info.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on March 22, 2020, 11:11:46 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 22, 2020, 02:19:44 PM
I would edit this to say "dictators lie when there's really bad news".
(yes this includes Jinping and Trump)
You're doing the equivalent of saying, "I hate you, therefore you are a Nazi!"
I'm no fan of Trump, but he's not a dictator.  Maybe he would like to be, but he's not.  Federal judges have been overturning his executive orders since the early days of his administration.

Dictators don't have to worry about stuff like that.
Jinping doesn't have to worry about stuff like that.
You undercut your legitimate points when you say stupid political stuff like Trump = dictator.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on March 22, 2020, 11:16:59 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 22, 2020, 02:45:52 PM
I actually want the media to lie when/if we do flatten the curve and our efforts pay off.  The minute people think "we did it!", they'll go back out into the world and it'll start back up again.
Do you believe in self-government or not?
You say Trump = dictator = bad, but then you say you hope the media will lie to us for our own good because we are too stupid to come in out of the raid without the government making us do it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on March 22, 2020, 11:24:41 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 22, 2020, 11:09:07 PM
CDC > WHO when it comes to info.
See?  This is a legit point.  Right on the money.
So why say all the crazy stuff that does nothing but undermine your own credibility?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on March 23, 2020, 12:00:13 AM
I see the Golf courses of America are on the same page.  I received no fewer than five emails today from courses that I frequent laying out how they are handling tee times, replete with 'ten rules' for play, which included all the usual,  no handshaking, don't touch or remove the pin flags,  no rakes in the bunkers (use your feet),   use your own tee, nobody else's.   Riders will drive their own carts, if they run out of carts, you're to walk, no exceptions.  No sand bottles/or divot mix stations.    No on course bathrooms, water or food or beverage service of any kind.   I know one local course is putting the cup above the surface, the instruction is to putt the ball to make contact with the 'cup' but not to hole out.  (keep your filthy mitts from the cup!)

All tee times booked/paid on line, narrowed hours, off the course by Xpm.      When weather cooperates, these places will be jammed IMO.   They were mid week, till weather turned.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on March 23, 2020, 12:08:17 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 22, 2020, 04:57:34 PM
Iowa's salons, barber shops, . . . closed
Damn. I thought about getting a haircut Saturday on condition my barber wore an exam mask while I did so as well. He is rather conservative but I think he would have gone along with it, and probably worn it the remainder of the day, if I asked.

By Saturday a.m. mid-day, I thought, to play it really safe, I'll go back to my mid-to-late 1970s look. Then 6-weeks from now I will adopt a new look. I'll buy Brylcream, and comb it back like Trump and Calif. Gov. Gavin Newsome. However, I refuse to buy orange spray-on facial dye, and goggles. If I am still breathing, that's one line I won't cross.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 23, 2020, 12:13:18 AM
I had already let my hair get pretty out of control before all this started.  Now, I don't consider my haircut to be "essential" so  I'll continue to led it grow.  (though I did venmo my hair gal my normal pay in advance because she could probably use it).

So for those who've seen me in person, I'm now very much starting to resemble full-on mullet 80s/90s John Stamos, rather than current/more recent clean cut John Stamos.

But the middle aged GenXer ladies are really digging me, so I got that going for me... which is nice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 23, 2020, 12:34:41 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on March 22, 2020, 11:11:46 PM
You're doing the equivalent of saying, "I hate you, therefore you are a Nazi!"
I'm no fan of Trump, but he's not a dictator.  Maybe he would like to be, but he's not.  Federal judges have been overturning his executive orders since the early days of his administration.

Dictators don't have to worry about stuff like that.
Jinping doesn't have to worry about stuff like that.
You undercut your legitimate points when you say stupid political stuff like Trump = dictator.
This is all I was saying, sheesh.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 23, 2020, 12:36:21 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on March 22, 2020, 11:16:59 PM
Do you believe in self-government or not?
You say Trump = dictator = bad, but then you say you hope the media will lie to us for our own good because we are too stupid to come in out of the raid without the government making us do it.
Tongue-in-cheek.  
Interesting that I only said the media, but you link that with the government.  Our gov't under Trump has made it clear they're at war with each other, not one and the same.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on March 23, 2020, 07:22:04 AM
If you are looking for something to watch, Tiger King on Netflix is absolutely bananas
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2020, 08:02:47 AM
If our President tries to mislead us, we have other avenues to ascertain reality.  I suspect in a true dictatorship those avenues are largely eliminated.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 23, 2020, 08:13:53 AM
Silliness.  In A dictatorship the press is controlled by the dictator. Here in United States the press has been very liberal and extremely anti-Trump to the point of not even being honest.

They don’t even try to hide it.   

That’s why I ignore them now- nothing constructive or balanced/ just criticism.   As I said before that has worked against them and appears to be working against them now.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on March 23, 2020, 08:58:50 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on March 23, 2020, 07:22:04 AM
If you are looking for something to watch, Tiger King on Netflix is absolutely bananas
I finished it last night.  Words escape me.  My wife would catch bits and pieces as she walked in and out of the room and finally asked me, “What on earth are you watching?”  Truly bizarre.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on March 23, 2020, 09:20:59 AM
Quote from: utee94 on March 22, 2020, 10:01:29 PM
Darth Vader:

Don't be too proud of this technological terror you've constructed.  The ability to destroy a planet is insignificant next to the power of The Force.
You stole my line!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2020, 09:24:58 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/fed-announces-a-slew-of-new-programs-to-help-markets-including-open-ended-asset-purchases.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/fed-announces-a-slew-of-new-programs-to-help-markets-including-open-ended-asset-purchases.html)

“We are now in QE infinity, again,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, said in a note.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 23, 2020, 09:39:42 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on March 22, 2020, 11:24:41 PM

So why say all the crazy stuff that does nothing but undermine your own credibility?
cause he's crazy???
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on March 23, 2020, 09:45:44 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 23, 2020, 09:39:42 AM
cause he's crazy???
He is not crazy, just blinded by his bias and his elitism. He knows better than everyone else, we are all stupid animals who cannot think properly and make smart decision for ourselves. He must make them for us for our own good. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 23, 2020, 10:30:44 AM
Hair clippers just showed up at the door.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 23, 2020, 10:44:22 AM
Quote from: Riffraft on March 23, 2020, 09:45:44 AM
He is not crazy, just blinded by his bias and his elitism. He knows better than everyone else, we are all stupid animals who cannot think properly and make smart decision for ourselves. He must make them for us for our own good.
in my book, that's crazy ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 23, 2020, 11:37:28 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 22, 2020, 02:43:12 PM
When (not if) a food-handler is infected, everyone picking up their pasta primavera is infected.  That's the argument.
That's not true, though... I posted this a few days ago:

https://www.seriouseats.com/2020/03/food-safety-and-coronavirus-a-comprehensive-guide.html (https://www.seriouseats.com/2020/03/food-safety-and-coronavirus-a-comprehensive-guide.html)

Coronavirii (not just this one, but all known variants) are airborne, not foodborne. There are no known cases of transmission through food. 

There is a small risk of an infected food-handler touching a surface (plastic bag, cardboard box for pizza, etc) and then you touching that surface and picking your nose, which would be a potential vector. But as long as you get home and wash your hands without touching your face, the food should be safe to eat. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 23, 2020, 11:40:46 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 23, 2020, 10:30:44 AM
Hair clippers just showed up at the door.
I already had some, so going forward it's going to be self-cut hair for me until this blows over.

I'm trying to rope my wife into helping, but she's worried about screwing it up. Yet if I do myself it'll be the 1/2" guard over the whole head, so I don't think she can screw it up worse than my *best* case. 

Before this is all over, I'll probably have to cut both my sons' hair too. That I can probably do a better job, because I'll be able to see and use scissors. I might actually be able to make it not look horrible.

But either way, the advantage of short hair is that when this all ends, another 2-3 weeks is all it will take for it to grow long enough to be appropriately cut/styled. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2020, 12:00:59 PM
I was watching a bit of TV last night, mostly Law and Order reruns, and pondered how long commercials will last.  I presume most we see now were preplanned under contract.  I see car commercials etc.  The travel commercials seem to have largely disappeared.  I have not seen a toilet paper commercial in a while.

This obviously would cut the money string for network TV in a large way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 23, 2020, 12:10:33 PM
One thing I wonder is when people become forced to do things for themselves, how many of them will continue after this is over. 

I'm already there with food. Most of the meals my wife and I make at home are better and cheaper than any comparable restaurant food. When we eat at restaurants it's either a special occasion, or it's a day that we are deliberately paying for it because it's easy and we're taking a night off. I think maybe people are going to realize that cooking isn't all that hard, and maybe long-term eat out less frequently. 

Take the haircut thing, for example. For me to take my two sons for haircuts, after tax+tip, is $24/each. It's an hour+ event given drive time [although sometimes I fold it into school pickups or other errands], so it's not like I'm saving time by paying for it. 

If I get to start cutting their hair and can do it without making them look like circus clowns, why go back to the barber with them after this ends?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 23, 2020, 12:13:37 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 23, 2020, 12:10:33 PM
One thing I wonder is when people become forced to do things for themselves, how many of them will continue after this is over.

I'm already there with food. Most of the meals my wife and I make at home are better and cheaper than any comparable restaurant food. When we eat at restaurants it's either a special occasion, or it's a day that we are deliberately paying for it because it's easy and we're taking a night off. I think maybe people are going to realize that cooking isn't all that hard, and maybe long-term eat out less frequently.

Take the haircut thing, for example. For me to take my two sons for haircuts, after tax+tip, is $24/each. It's an hour+ event given drive time [although sometimes I fold it into school pickups or other errands], so it's not like I'm saving time by paying for it.

If I get to start cutting their hair and can do it without making them look like circus clowns, why go back to the barber with them after this ends?

Dude, you need to go hit the hair salons in the barrios.  How's your Spanish?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2020, 12:14:45 PM
We dine out rather than eat out for that reason.  It's more of an event for us when we go.  We don't eat at chains but rarely.  Our local French restaurant is closed, not even take out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 23, 2020, 12:24:09 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 23, 2020, 12:13:37 PM
Dude, you need to go hit the hair salons in the barrios.  How's your Spanish?
With gas prices, I might end up spending more ;-) 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 23, 2020, 12:45:13 PM
with gas prices this low you could drive to Tijuana

oh crap, the border is closed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 23, 2020, 01:37:08 PM
"Low" gas prices here are high nationally... Looking at GasBuddy the average in Orange County is $3.21.

I don't think I can find <$3.09 in my town.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 23, 2020, 01:45:42 PM
I saw gas at $1.50 in a small town Thursday afternoon
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 23, 2020, 02:12:48 PM
$1.49 at my normal gas station up the road.  It's a shame there's nowhere to go...

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MichiFan87 on March 23, 2020, 02:25:04 PM
There's speculation at this point that a lot of the small oil & gas companies could go out of business as soon as this year.

Meanwhile, the big ones become even bigger, but this price collapse is now giving them incentive to look to invest more in renewables (which they're already starting to) because while those investments are much less risky and there isn't as big of a trade-off in potential profit like there has been. The big European energy companies are already making this transition so it's only a matter of time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2020, 02:39:46 PM
My sense is the investment in renewables by companies  like Exxon is PR.  They kept running ads about fuel from algae, which is old technology and with known major issues.  I don't know if there is a practicable way around these major issues, one being gunking up your filters.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 23, 2020, 03:01:03 PM
Quote from: MichiFan87 on March 23, 2020, 02:25:04 PM
There's speculation at this point that a lot of the small oil & gas companies could go out of business as soon as this year.

Meanwhile, the big ones become even bigger, but this price collapse is now giving them incentive to look to invest more in renewables (which they're already starting to) because while those investments are much less risky and there isn't as big of a trade-off in potential profit like there has been. The big European energy companies are already making this transition so it's only a matter of time.
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 23, 2020, 02:39:46 PM
My sense is the investment in renewables by companies  like Exxon is PR.  They kept running ads about fuel from algae, which is old technology and with known major issues.  I don't know if there is a practicable way around these major issues, one being gunking up your filters.
What I think you see with this is that no matter what people think is necessary to do, Coronavirus gives a great reason for people to do what they already want to do.

For example, on the various libertarian blogs (Cato, Reason), they're all talking about how the fact that we're relaxing FDA requirements, reducing occupational licensing requirements for economic reasons, and allowing things like home delivery of booze without the world ending suggest that what they've been advocating for all along make sense. 

The idea that a price collapse in oil means that investment in renewables will suddenly spike is counterintuitive. Renewables are typically more expensive, and investment/push for renewables tends to be most popular when fossil fuel energy sources are most expensive, not cheap. 

If high fossil fuel prices mean that companies should invest more in renewables and low fossil fuel prices mean that companies should invest more in renewables, it makes you think that the decision precedes the rationale... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2020, 03:06:21 PM
And of course the petroleum industry is geared to transportation while renewable power is electricity, which is not nearly as relevant to transportation (yet).  As EVs come along of course that evolves, but a windmill doesn't get your gasoline powered car any further along.  Something close to 10%  of petroleum and NG is used by the chemical industry, that is a part that won't readily change.  And we make a lot of fertilizer using the Haber process from NG and ammonia.  

I've seen first hand how much large companies will spend on what is in effect PR by pretending to do something "eco-conscious" or whatever when nothing is expected of it.  I was smack in the middle of one of those circa 1992.  It was interesting and unpleasant politically.  Very.

I messed with the wrong lady.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 23, 2020, 04:07:34 PM
Local vodka distiller Tito's has converted some of its manufacturing to hand sanitizer and is delivering 24 tons of the stuff, for free.  They're also donating $2M to CV relief efforts.

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/titos-handmade-hand-sanitizer/ (https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/titos-handmade-hand-sanitizer/)

Just a great company that's always been great to the community, going back 20 years when I was their first (and only) charitable tailgate party.  These days, they sponsor scores and perhaps even hundreds of them. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 23, 2020, 04:11:33 PM
and Tito's is dog friendly
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 23, 2020, 04:28:11 PM
$&#^! So we're gonna have a vodka shortage now? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 23, 2020, 04:47:01 PM
I have two handles at my house

that should last a couple weeks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 23, 2020, 04:50:11 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 23, 2020, 04:11:33 PM
and Tito's is dog friendly
Hairy naked men in their factory.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on March 23, 2020, 04:53:07 PM
I want to punch the lawyers in the face that sued Titos over their hand made/crafted claims.

I dont even drink vodka. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 23, 2020, 05:58:10 PM
still says handmade on the label

must not have been successful
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MichiFan87 on March 23, 2020, 06:47:54 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 23, 2020, 03:06:21 PM
And of course the petroleum industry is geared to transportation while renewable power is electricity, which is not nearly as relevant to transportation (yet).  As EVs come along of course that evolves, but a windmill doesn't get your gasoline powered car any further along.  Something close to 10%  of petroleum and NG is used by the chemical industry, that is a part that won't readily change.  And we make a lot of fertilizer using the Haber process from NG and ammonia. 

I've seen first hand how much large companies will spend on what is in effect PR by pretending to do something "eco-conscious" or whatever when nothing is expected of it.  I was smack in the middle of one of those circa 1992.  It was interesting and unpleasant politically.  Very.

I messed with the wrong lady.
Yes, the price range at which the oil & gas industry can be successful is slowly being squeezed by profitability on the low side and renewables, electrification, and (eventually) hydrogen on the high side.. China and Europe are already electrifying transportation and other sectors and starting to scale up hydrogen production, and it's only a matter of time until that really starts taking off in the US and elsewhere..... Transforming the industrial sector will be challenging to be sure, but even carbon-capture could become cost-effective for its processes eventually.

In other news, the Philadelphia area is officially locked down for at least two weeks so I'm stuck at my parents' place at least until that ends, not that there's anything to do in DC now, anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2020, 07:02:01 PM
Hydrogen is not an energy source.  It's an energy storage tactic, and very expensive to generate in terms of energy requirements.

Carbon capture is an entropy nightmare.  I see a lot of PR with both and not much substance.  Thermodynamics is not something that we can change.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 23, 2020, 07:32:23 PM
Quote from: MichiFan87 on March 23, 2020, 06:47:54 PM
In other news, the Philadelphia area is officially locked down for at least two weeks so I'm stuck at my parents' place at least until that ends, not that there's anything to do in DC now, anyway.
The lockdown would not likely stop you from going from Philly to your place in DC...

...but if you want to eat your parent's free food, don't tell them that :72:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MichiFan87 on March 23, 2020, 08:41:21 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 23, 2020, 07:02:01 PM
Hydrogen is not an energy source.  It's an energy storage tactic, and very expensive to generate in terms of energy requirements.

Carbon capture is an entropy nightmare.  I see a lot of PR with both and not much substance.  Thermodynamics is not something that we can change.


Neither are ready to be commercialized yet by any means, though hydrogen is closer to it than most realize. There's an increasing amount of renewable generation that goes to waste because otherwise it destabilizes the grid. However, if you put electrolyzers and energy storage systems nearby, much more of it could be put to use and stored. Here's some of the latest news related to this:

https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/distributed-generation/nsw-announces-first-hydrogen-storage-new-solar-storage-plants/
 (https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/distributed-generation/nsw-announces-first-hydrogen-storage-new-solar-storage-plants/)https://www.h2-view.com/story/australia-wants-to-produce-hydrogen-under-2-per-kg/
 (https://www.h2-view.com/story/australia-wants-to-produce-hydrogen-under-2-per-kg/)https://www.forbes.com/sites/dipkabhambhani/2020/03/20/could-sinking-oil-prices-open-door-for-green-hydrogen-some-hope/#398916ac3b6e (https://www.forbes.com/sites/dipkabhambhani/2020/03/20/could-sinking-oil-prices-open-door-for-green-hydrogen-some-hope/#398916ac3b6e)

Once this all gets depoliticized in (hopefully / presumably) 2021 and beyond, most people will realize this is the way of the future.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2020, 07:51:11 AM
This is the wrong thread for energy discussion. C'mon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2020, 08:23:08 AM
Milwaukee's Summerfest has been postponed from June/July to September. Hopefully it's not cancelled completely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 24, 2020, 10:08:51 AM
We will send police. With flame-throwers': Italian mayors lose it at people refusing to self isolate

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/we-will-send-police-with-flame-throwers-italian-mayors-lose-it-at-people-refusing-to-self-isolate (https://nationalpost.com/news/world/we-will-send-police-with-flame-throwers-italian-mayors-lose-it-at-people-refusing-to-self-isolate)

Italian soldiers patrol downtown Milan, Italy, Sunday, March 22, 2020. Italian Premier Giuseppe Conte has told the nation he is tightening the lockdown to fight the rampaging spread of coronavirus, shutting down all production facilities except those that are “necessary, crucial, indispensable to guarantee” the good of the country
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2020, 10:10:40 AM
https://www.ajc.com/news/breaking-news/breaking-atlanta-mayor-signs-day-stay-home-order-due-coronavirus-pandemic/HpYoORZDNNqdIWc3QfKWwK/?fbclid=IwAR0AoKAz00LqQYSW7jaE02FCo9ns-4EnuK8js0f3xQXHE_jJ23WkBjoev24 (https://www.ajc.com/news/breaking-news/breaking-atlanta-mayor-signs-day-stay-home-order-due-coronavirus-pandemic/HpYoORZDNNqdIWc3QfKWwK/?fbclid=IwAR0AoKAz00LqQYSW7jaE02FCo9ns-4EnuK8js0f3xQXHE_jJ23WkBjoev24)

We are officially shut down, but this was already a reality anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2020, 10:54:07 AM
I was watching the news early today and the story of that princess came up. 17 days later, workers found evidence of the virus living on hard surfaces. 17 days.


Whoever designed this virus is really good at it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 24, 2020, 11:17:02 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2020, 07:51:11 AM
This is the wrong thread for energy discussion. C'mon.
Congress evidently was doing sumsuch - while voting down the stimulus package - according to C-Span.They should give these douche nozzles time in Leavenworth or Lucasville.Insider trading fucks should be fitted for rope
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2020, 11:33:24 AM
https://atlanta.curbed.com/atlanta-photo-essays/2020/1/30/21115532/atlanta-skyline-drone-photos-downtown-west-midtown?fbclid=IwAR1K8UKO1CQam8LJFU_ZX1Zrjh2XN_ffDA_BpVxPR6FkkR-U8bVcxTOB_0I (https://atlanta.curbed.com/atlanta-photo-essays/2020/1/30/21115532/atlanta-skyline-drone-photos-downtown-west-midtown?fbclid=IwAR1K8UKO1CQam8LJFU_ZX1Zrjh2XN_ffDA_BpVxPR6FkkR-U8bVcxTOB_0I)

Some pretty photos of the ATL with almost no traffic from a couple days back.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MichiFan87 on March 24, 2020, 11:53:38 AM
Of course this stupid institution does this: https://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/thousands-of-liberty-students-expected-to-return-to-campus-amid/article_a7b91be3-217a-598e-a367-34950271e6c6.html (https://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/thousands-of-liberty-students-expected-to-return-to-campus-amid/article_a7b91be3-217a-598e-a367-34950271e6c6.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2020, 12:01:49 PM
IDIOTS
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on March 24, 2020, 12:50:26 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 23, 2020, 04:07:34 PM
Local vodka distiller Tito's has converted some of its manufacturing to hand sanitizer and is delivering 24 tons of the stuff, for free.  They're also donating $2M to CV relief efforts.

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/titos-handmade-hand-sanitizer/ (https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/titos-handmade-hand-sanitizer/)

Just a great company that's always been great to the community, going back 20 years when I was their first (and only) charitable tailgate party.  These days, they sponsor scores and perhaps even hundreds of them.
Local distillers here are doing much the same.  Good for them!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 24, 2020, 12:52:20 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 24, 2020, 11:17:02 AM
Congress evidently was doing sumsuch - while voting down the stimulus package - according to C-Span.They should give these douche nozzles time in Leavenworth or Lucasville.Insider trading fucks should be fitted for rope
this is also NOT the thread for politics!

where's my flamethrower!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 24, 2020, 01:42:30 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 24, 2020, 12:52:20 PM

where's my flamethrower!
Save it for the insiders
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on March 24, 2020, 02:11:19 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 24, 2020, 12:52:20 PM
this is also NOT the thread for politics!

where's my flamethrower!
Lets use all the stimulus money on flamethrowers for all, then let the chips fall where they may!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on March 24, 2020, 02:16:51 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2020, 10:54:07 AM
I was watching the news early today and the story of that princess came up. 17 days later, workers found evidence of the virus living on hard surfaces. 17 days.


Whoever designed this virus is really good at it.
We mess with mother nature long enough, eventually she'll come after us. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2020, 02:19:54 PM
So we should remove all dams and levees then. Ugh...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 24, 2020, 02:28:10 PM
Quote from: ELA on March 24, 2020, 02:11:19 PM
Lets use all the stimulus money on flamethrowers for all, then let the chips fall where they may!
I'm gonna get me one o' them flamethrower DRONES.  Then I can practice proper social distancing whilst laying waste to mine enemies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2020, 02:51:41 PM
I started watching "Almost Human" which is a cop show set in 2048 (which is odd because the cops are driving gasoline powered 2018 Fords).  Anyway, they use a lot of drones.  They have a combination of insane android technology and almost nothing very updated otherwise.  Lila from Friday Night Lights is in it, still looking pretty good.

We walked in the park today amidst some weather later.  Not many folks out today.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2020, 02:55:32 PM
We too live across from a park - Town Square it's called.

The only people are see are being walked around by hairy naked men, on leashes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on March 24, 2020, 02:57:53 PM
Our company is being sold, to close next week, the movers deemed non essential have said they cant move our stuff the four blocks we are moving.  Great.  Now dealing w federal regulators to tell them we won't be in compliance w federal laws because State Law won't let us do what is required (maintaining continuous ownership of records) .

Where's that flamethrower. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2020, 03:20:53 PM
Maybe call a lawyer to help you?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on March 24, 2020, 03:32:27 PM
We told our cleaning service (one person owns it has her daughter help) not to come to our house tomorrow, but we'd still send her the money.   She started crying thanking my wife.   We talk about food industry being hit, but a lot of service businesses are being crushed.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2020, 03:36:53 PM
Yeah, we did the same.  We have them come every two weeks.  They are not allowed in the building now.  I think the folks who run the building are making good choices so far.  They have even waived penalties for anyone unable to pay the HOA.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on March 24, 2020, 03:45:46 PM
We decided to pay everyone as if life was normal.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2020, 03:50:48 PM
https://atlanta.eater.com/maps/restaurant-markets-neighorhood-groceries-atlanta-covid-19 (https://atlanta.eater.com/maps/restaurant-markets-neighorhood-groceries-atlanta-covid-19)

I imagine this is wide spread.

Some restaurants have gone one step beyond delivery and takeout, transforming dining rooms into temporary neighborhood markets and food pantries.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2020, 03:51:18 PM
Haircuts, pedicure, massage... All of that is shut down.

My wife is not good at any of them either. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2020, 03:52:04 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 24, 2020, 03:50:48 PM
https://atlanta.eater.com/maps/restaurant-markets-neighorhood-groceries-atlanta-covid-19 (https://atlanta.eater.com/maps/restaurant-markets-neighorhood-groceries-atlanta-covid-19)

I imagine this is wide spread.

Some restaurants have gone one step beyond delivery and takeout, transforming dining rooms into temporary neighborhood markets and food pantries.
We are seeing some of that. They are still getting supplies and they need to sell them if they cannot use them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on March 24, 2020, 04:49:03 PM
Our neighborhood bar is gifting a roll of TP with each family dinner take out order.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on March 24, 2020, 04:50:33 PM
My wife ordered her hair coloring materials a couple weeks ago.   

Priorities!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on March 24, 2020, 08:42:07 PM
Quote from: Entropy on March 24, 2020, 03:32:27 PM
We told our cleaning service (one person owns it has her daughter help) not to come to our house tomorrow, but we'd still send her the money.  She started crying thanking my wife.  We talk about food industry being hit, but a lot of service businesses are being crushed. 
Send her to WV.  The two ladies who clean for us told us “until all this is over” (whenever the hell that will be) they feel like they should stay away for a little while.  Despite the fact that I’m home now I’m still busy enough with useless busy work from the company, helping the kids with school work, grocery shopping, and cooking that keeping the house clean is a pain in the ass.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on March 24, 2020, 08:52:16 PM
We kept our crew.  They were pleased to come, but also get why some are bailing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2020, 08:55:53 PM
Mrs. 847 does not cut hair. She does not do pedicures. She does not do massage.

She cleans the F out of a house. No need for a house cleaner here. 

The other stuff, yeah... This stuff I need.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 24, 2020, 09:31:35 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2020, 03:51:18 PM
Haircuts, pedicure, massage... All of that is shut down.

My wife is not good at any of them either.
soon you will be a hairy man, hopefully not naked
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2020, 09:34:42 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 24, 2020, 09:31:35 PM
soon you will be a hairy man, hopefully not naked
Or licking my ass.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 24, 2020, 09:35:33 PM
only because you're not able
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 24, 2020, 09:44:26 PM
uhhhhhhh

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2020, 09:49:58 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 24, 2020, 09:44:26 PM
uhhhhhhh


Yeah.. yuck.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 24, 2020, 10:02:53 PM
I didn't bring it up, I merely stirred it a wee bit
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 24, 2020, 10:43:13 PM
When you have attained the dont give a shit zone as I have

the length of your hair means nothing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 24, 2020, 11:38:31 PM
Hippy!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2020, 08:17:57 AM
Just back from Kroger, went during "senior hour", which wasn't really being enforced, the security guard showed up as I was leaving.  They were at about 85% stockage, even some TP was present, not much left.  No quotas.  Bread was in short supply was enough was there for an hour or so.  Eggs were there.  Veggies aplenty.  Dried beans were rare.  Plenty of canned goods.  Ground beef was low.




Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 25, 2020, 09:13:07 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 24, 2020, 11:38:31 PM
Hippy!
I prefer mountain man
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 25, 2020, 12:16:44 PM





Consider doing this to keep busy


https://www.youtube.com/embed/HyuE1XnY (https://www.youtube.com/embed/HyuE1XnYO0I)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2020, 12:22:34 PM
I am dong at least 100 push ups in three sets each day, and we walk if the weather is nice (which it is).  Our building gym is closed, I doubt anyone was using it anyway.  Our party area is closed.  The front desk has a stay back 6 feet sign on it.  Our janitor who is outstanding is really making a great effort.  I rarely see someone as diligent and hard working as he is when no one is looking.

There is a guy at Kroger servicing the self checkout lanes who is in a wheel chair missing two legs.  I told him today how his cheerfulness was much appreciated when we visit, we always speak to him.  He said "I'm a retired civil engineer, I just enjoy helping people.", which he does, 74 years old, in a wheel chair, working at Kroger.

We should remember people like that instead of the goofs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 25, 2020, 01:09:52 PM
If he wants to un-retire, we're hiring good people who are also civil engineers.

I'll be starting that Florida office by this time next year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2020, 02:24:50 PM
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/who-launches-global-megatrial-four-most-promising-coronavirus-treatments?fbclid=IwAR2aurRn-y5wJxOXj8g45rYsbLV5Q7hr_Sg3MnW5Oq2s3iCTKcKl7ELDsRU (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/who-launches-global-megatrial-four-most-promising-coronavirus-treatments?fbclid=IwAR2aurRn-y5wJxOXj8g45rYsbLV5Q7hr_Sg3MnW5Oq2s3iCTKcKl7ELDsRU)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 25, 2020, 02:30:09 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 25, 2020, 01:09:52 PM
If he wants to un-retire, we're hiring good people who are also civil engineers.

I'll be starting that Florida office by this time next year.
Where in Florida you headed, again?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 25, 2020, 02:32:47 PM
Everglades
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 25, 2020, 02:39:38 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 25, 2020, 02:30:09 PM
Where in Florida you headed, again?
Burnt Store Marina. Gulf side, away from the New Yorkers...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 25, 2020, 02:48:26 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 25, 2020, 02:39:38 PM
Burnt Store Marina. Gulf side, away from the New Yorkers...
Strange name... :)


Looks nice on the intergooglez though.  Maybe I'll come visit.  Save some amberjack for me!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 25, 2020, 03:47:31 PM
They call it Burnt Store because back in the day there was a trading post at that location. It was a natural harbor spot.

The store manager screwed some Indian traders and they returned that night and burned the store down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2020, 03:50:35 PM
Park was crowded today, people still in small groups though, beautiful day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on March 25, 2020, 04:00:28 PM

We've been ordering supplies/items from Amazon instead of going to stores.  Yesterday I picked up a box that felt really light and then noticed someone took a box cutter to the tape, opened it and removed all the contents.  This was not done at our doorstep, but rather at the FedEx facility.  I was outside with my son when delivered and asked that he set them on the porch while we finished playing horse.    FedEx has been.... well... extremely unresponsive and nonchalant about the event.  The Amazon seller is resending without issues.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 25, 2020, 04:58:31 PM
I'm told the stores around here are starting to catch up. I guess the hoarders are about done.

Mrs. 847 was able to get essentials today.

Looks like certain vitamins are running low (C in particular). I understand why. We always have EmergenC on hand, as well as Airborne. Good stuff.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2020, 05:48:49 PM
I have a notion the distinctive features of this virus are that it survives on hard surfaces a long time and the infected are asymptomatic for quite a few days often as not.  That makes it ideal for a pandemic.

The most serious aspect of the illness seems to be shortness of breath, which for any with respiratory issues is quite serious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 25, 2020, 06:37:53 PM
https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-chicago-lakefront-arwady-lightfoot-20200325-feqjcndbmzebrctivt7r4trp3u-story.html

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 25, 2020, 06:43:36 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 25, 2020, 06:37:53 PM
https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-chicago-lakefront-arwady-lightfoot-20200325-feqjcndbmzebrctivt7r4trp3u-story.html
One of the things that I love about America is our healthy disregard for authority. It's kinda what started us off as a country, after all...

But I think there are a lot of dumbasses that are going to make this whole situation worse for NO reason, because they're just determined to be idiots.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 25, 2020, 06:56:45 PM
Yep.

(https://c.tadst.com/gfx/750w/st-patricks-day-global2.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 25, 2020, 07:05:20 PM
Oh yeah, I heard that they'd canceled the St Patrick's Day parade in Chicago.

My first thought was "well that ain't gonna stop 'em all from getting piss-drunk together."

And I was right.

I know my city, even if I don't live there any more...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 25, 2020, 07:17:05 PM
I told a friend in NOLA not to go out last month, but she did...they all did....and Louisiana had the fastest spread in the world for a time.  DUHHHHH.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 25, 2020, 07:34:09 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 25, 2020, 07:05:20 PM
Oh yeah, I heard that they'd canceled the St Patrick's Day parade in Chicago.

My first thought was "well that ain't gonna stop 'em all from getting piss-drunk together."

And I was right.

I know my city, even if I don't live there any more...
Parade cancelled. Bars open. Packed. Next day governor shuts down bars. Two days later election held.


Only in Chicago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 25, 2020, 07:40:51 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 25, 2020, 07:34:09 PM
Parade cancelled. Bars open. Packed. Next day governor shuts down bars. Two days later election held.


Only in Chicago.
Hey, they're known for the dead voting in Chicago.

Why not the very soon to be dead?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 25, 2020, 08:32:43 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 25, 2020, 07:40:51 PM
Hey, they're known for the dead voting in Chicago.

Why not the very soon to be dead?
THE BOSS LIVES!!!


And, as Rham would say.. 


Wrong board.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 25, 2020, 08:34:55 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 25, 2020, 08:32:43 PM
THE BOSS LIVES!!!


And, as Rham would say..


Wrong board.
I think I voted Daley this year.

I haven't lived in Illinois for 20 years now, and I don't believe I filled out a ballot for Daley... But that doesn't mean my vote doesn't count... Right?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on March 25, 2020, 08:43:48 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 25, 2020, 06:43:36 PM
One of the things that I love about America is our healthy disregard for authority. It's kinda what started us off as a country, after all...

But I think there are a lot of dumbasses that are going to make this whole situation worse for NO reason, because they're just determined to be idiots.
That's who the governor of Minnesota was talking to this afternoon: those who don't think it can happen to them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 25, 2020, 09:19:41 PM
(https://s3media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/495/700/9700495.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 25, 2020, 09:49:52 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on March 25, 2020, 08:43:48 PM
That's who the governor of Minnesota was talking to this afternoon: those who don't think it can happen to them.
Like THESE idiots that did the "Corona Virus Challenge" and licked public facilities... allegedly one of them is now positive.  Which surprises no one.

(https://i2.wp.com/metro.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/comp-1585143206.png?quality=90&strip=all&zoom=1&resize=480%2C270&ssl=1)

(https://i2.wp.com/metro.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/clout-13b3.png?quality=90&strip=all&zoom=1&resize=265%2C431&ssl=1)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 25, 2020, 10:07:35 PM
I wish they'd caught something else... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on March 25, 2020, 10:22:55 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 25, 2020, 06:56:45 PM
Yep.

(https://c.tadst.com/gfx/750w/st-patricks-day-global2.jpg)
The wisdom of youth and the senility of old age captured in one pic.  Impressive!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 25, 2020, 11:34:24 PM
alcohol is to blame, obviously
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 26, 2020, 08:03:56 AM
Of course. They all went out so they could sober up together.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 26, 2020, 08:12:26 AM
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/will-the-2020-college-football-season-be-canceled-coaches-ads-weigh-possibility-and-impact/


My favorite part, from Florida's AD:


"I saw somebody said, 'If you threatened college football season, everybody in the South would lock themselves in their house for two weeks to get it over with,'" Stricklin said. "I kind of feel like we're not far from that. I think people are really taking it seriously."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 26, 2020, 08:46:10 AM
Folks around here are playing by the rules because the Mayor threatened to close the parks and the beltline.  The park was crowded yesterday, but people were maintain small groups (which they generally do anyway in reality).

The wife was worried about getting sweat from some sweaty jogger.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 26, 2020, 09:20:01 AM
https://atlanta.curbed.com/2020/3/24/21191905/coronavirus-atlanta-good-news-covid-19-atlanta?fbclid=IwAR0zcgRe3j9NJ2ProjsCyzUyE21mGPkm5c6y2LRBuICEb1tCWpdm3h4eOXw (https://atlanta.curbed.com/2020/3/24/21191905/coronavirus-atlanta-good-news-covid-19-atlanta?fbclid=IwAR0zcgRe3j9NJ2ProjsCyzUyE21mGPkm5c6y2LRBuICEb1tCWpdm3h4eOXw)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 26, 2020, 10:09:44 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 26, 2020, 08:46:10 AM
Folks around here are playing by the rules because the Mayor threatened to close the parks and the beltline.  The park was crowded yesterday, but people were maintain small groups (which they generally do anyway in reality).

The wife was worried about getting sweat from some sweaty jogger.
Here in my suburb, the city council closed all city and hoa parks.  I've been running through every park within about 5 miles of my house for the past 2 weeks, every single day, sometimes 2x or 3x per day, and not once have I seen any evidence of "congregating."

This was a solution in search of a problem.  Crap like that isn't going to help, it'll work in the opposite direction, driving people even further stir-crazy than they already are.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 26, 2020, 10:31:04 AM
Quote from: utee94 on March 26, 2020, 10:09:44 AM
Here in my suburb, the city council closed all city and hoa parks.  I've been running through every park within about 5 miles of my house for the past 2 weeks, every single day, sometimes 2x or 3x per day, and not once have I seen any evidence of "congregating."

This was a solution in search of a problem.  Crap like that isn't going to help, it'll work in the opposite direction, driving people even further stir-crazy than they already are.
Seriously,e-mail/write your councilman and tell him that.Their cure could become a curse
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 26, 2020, 11:32:49 AM
In not good news, I read Atlanta hospitals are not maxed out on ICU capacity.  The regular flu should be easing up now, but of course there are still strokes and coronaries, probably many fewer bad traffic accidents.

MARTA is in a bad way because hardly anyone is riding for obvious reasons.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 26, 2020, 11:50:39 AM
We're handing out all of our reading series materials and consumables if families come by the school.  We're getting a new reading series next school year.  Most won't come get it, but it's A LOT of great grade-level specific materials they could keep.  Sigh.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on March 26, 2020, 04:06:49 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 25, 2020, 07:05:20 PM
Oh yeah, I heard that they'd canceled the St Patrick's Day parade in Chicago.

My first thought was "well that ain't gonna stop 'em all from getting piss-drunk together."

And I was right.

I know my city, even if I don't live there any more...
I'm not from Chicago but I was there with my wife a few years ago for the St. Patrick's Day Parade (in town for BTT).  We saw the parade and the river turned green and when I saw this, I thought the same thing.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 26, 2020, 04:13:54 PM
They didn't do the river this year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 26, 2020, 04:44:05 PM
Zoonose is my word for the day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 26, 2020, 05:01:40 PM
Mine is bioweapon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 26, 2020, 05:03:07 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 26, 2020, 04:13:54 PM
They didn't do the river this year.
I feel safer
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 26, 2020, 05:04:02 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 26, 2020, 04:44:05 PM
Zoonose is my word for the day.
mine is Amboy
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 26, 2020, 06:20:32 PM
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on March 26, 2020, 04:06:49 PM
I'm not from Chicago but I was there with my wife a few years ago for the St. Patrick's Day Parade (in town for BTT).  We saw the parade and the river turned green and when I saw this, I thought the same thing. 
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 26, 2020, 04:13:54 PM
They didn't do the river this year.
The river is always green.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 26, 2020, 06:36:50 PM
Brown. 

It's brown!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 26, 2020, 06:40:39 PM
Well, I'm colorblind. Green, brown, it's all the same to me...

I still maintain that the most Chicago thing ever is recognizing that your river is polluting your lake, and instead of fixing the pollution problems, you just decide to pump it the opposite direction so downstate can deal with it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 26, 2020, 06:51:55 PM
Ahhhh, so THAT's the Chicago way?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 26, 2020, 06:53:25 PM
J. B. Pritzker is a genius 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 26, 2020, 06:57:06 PM
Just ask him. Then you will know for sure.


Ask him about toilets while yer at it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 26, 2020, 06:58:00 PM
Licking public toilets?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 26, 2020, 07:18:39 PM
So I just read that the US now leads the world in confirmed cases. 

CCP lies, so I don't believe that for a minute second.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 26, 2020, 07:23:50 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 26, 2020, 07:18:39 PM
So I just read that the US now leads the world in confirmed cases.

CCP lies, so I don't believe that for a minute second.
Yep. I don't trust the China numbers as remotely plausible. 

But hey, we're #1!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 26, 2020, 07:50:34 PM
China's numbers are complete crap.  

The rest of the world could really use their help in communicating real data from the virus that started in their country, and they're hell-bent on trying to look good and displaying to The West that they are "better" than us.

Fuck those assholes.  It makes me ragey.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 26, 2020, 07:52:09 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 26, 2020, 06:40:39 PM
Well, I'm colorblind. Green, brown, it's all the same to me...
Traffic Lights ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 26, 2020, 07:57:26 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 26, 2020, 05:04:02 PM
mine is Amboy
As in the Amboy Dukes(Ted Nugent)?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 26, 2020, 07:58:53 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 26, 2020, 07:50:34 PM
China's numbers are complete crap. 

The rest of the world could really use their help in communicating real data from the virus that started in their country, and they're hell-bent on trying to look good and displaying to The West that they are "better" than us.

Fuck those assholes.  It makes me ragey.

Lighten up round eyes 👀
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 26, 2020, 08:12:40 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 26, 2020, 07:57:26 PM
As in the Amboy Dukes(Ted Nugent)?
how'd you know?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 26, 2020, 08:30:19 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 26, 2020, 07:50:34 PM
China's numbers are complete crap. 

The rest of the world could really use their help in communicating real data from the virus that started in their country, and they're hell-bent on trying to look good and displaying to The West that they are "better" than us.

Fuck those assholes.  It makes me ragey.

Preach on, my brother.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 26, 2020, 08:34:54 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 26, 2020, 07:52:09 PM
Traffic Lights ?
Red looks red. Yellow looks yellow. Green looks white. Basically I can't distinguish a green light from a street light except by shape/context. 

Somehow I'm still alive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 26, 2020, 09:32:59 PM
Colorblindness has always fascinated me.  And I believe it's supposed to be pretty common among males?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 26, 2020, 09:59:17 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 26, 2020, 08:34:54 PM
Red looks red. Yellow looks yellow. Green looks white. Basically I can't distinguish a green light from a street light except by shape/context.

Somehow I'm still alive.
I have the problem too. Remember in Chicago when the lights used to be horizontal? Heh. 


I played Russian Roulette a few times.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 26, 2020, 10:01:24 PM
Lakefront, beaches and most parks are now closed in The City.


People out playing football and basketball sealed the deal. Asshats abound.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 26, 2020, 10:11:05 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 26, 2020, 09:32:59 PM
Colorblindness has always fascinated me.  And I believe it's supposed to be pretty common among males?

it's common here
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 26, 2020, 11:39:21 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 26, 2020, 09:32:59 PM
Colorblindness has always fascinated me.  And I believe it's supposed to be pretty common among males?

Blonde, brunette, redhead....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 26, 2020, 11:48:03 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 26, 2020, 11:39:21 PM
Blonde, brunette, redhead....
Ha!  Indeed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 27, 2020, 06:19:46 AM
You can't pass a flight medical exam if you are colorblind, interestingly enough.  You also can't be diabetic (they may have modified that rule).

This is a Class III, the lowest class.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 27, 2020, 07:19:29 AM
Interestingly enough, I've gotten better over the years. I was able to pass the coast guard exam for my license 10 years ago. 

Could not have done that 30 years ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 27, 2020, 08:35:22 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 26, 2020, 08:12:40 PM
how'd you know?

Come along if you care
Come along if you dare
Take a ride to the land inside of your mind…
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 27, 2020, 08:36:49 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on March 27, 2020, 08:34:23 AM
https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894
This post is under investigation... link says that. At least for me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 27, 2020, 08:38:42 AM
I have tried a dozen different ways to attach it.  It’s not working🤨

I will keep trying
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 27, 2020, 08:51:45 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 27, 2020, 06:19:46 AM
You can't pass a flight medical exam if you are colorblind, interestingly enough.  You also can't be diabetic (they may have modified that rule).

This is a Class III, the lowest class.
A friend years back entered USAF flight school in Del Rio Texas.He was almost disqualified for a slight acne problem.Fortunately this seemed to be a thing and it was corrected by some dermatologists
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 27, 2020, 09:25:28 AM
my eyes were only one reason I'm not a pilot
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 27, 2020, 10:05:34 AM
I'm sure Trans-Debris Airlines would be more than happy to have you
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on March 27, 2020, 10:29:10 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 26, 2020, 08:34:54 PM
Red looks red. Yellow looks yellow. Green looks white. Basically I can't distinguish a green light from a street light except by shape/context.

Somehow I'm still alive.
My father was red/green colorblind and worked as an electrician for years. In this day and age he would never get licensed. On really complicated wiring where there were multi colored/striped wires he would bring a piece how and go over again and again with my mom so he could identify the various wires by the "intensity" of the color. 

It was fun playing Uno with him. And we always had a good laugh when he picked out his own clothes instead of mom.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 27, 2020, 10:31:01 AM
Quote from: utee94 on March 26, 2020, 09:32:59 PM
Colorblindness has always fascinated me.  And I believe it's supposed to be pretty common among males?

Not "pretty common" among males, but extremely rare among females.

It's a recessive gene on the X chromosome. So for a woman (two X chromosomes) to be colorblind, she has to have a colorblind father, and a mother who is either a carrier for colorblindness (50% chance daughter becomes colorblind) or who is colorblind (100% chance daughter becomes colorblind).

But since men only have one X chromosome, and there is no corresponding gene on the Y chromosome, all it takes is to be male and your mother be a carrier of the gene to have a 50% chance that you'd be colorblind yourself.

It also means that I didn't pass any colorblindness to my two sons, but my daughter is definitely a carrier of the gene. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on March 27, 2020, 10:31:28 AM
Quote from: utee94 on March 26, 2020, 09:32:59 PM
Colorblindness has always fascinated me.  And I believe it's supposed to be pretty common among males?

Most colorblindness is past on through from father to Daughter (Carrier) to son.

So my father was colorbind and my sister's two boys are both colorblind.  None of my sons nor my brother's sons are colorblind.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on March 27, 2020, 10:35:37 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 27, 2020, 09:25:28 AM
my eyes were only one reason I'm not a pilot

I had an appointment to West Point, 2 weeks before I was suppose to leave for boot camp, I was disqualified because of my eyesight. I am extremely myopic (-14.75 diopters). 

I thought after I received the nomination and then the appointment that I had received a waiver for my eyesight. I figure at the last moment some big mucky-muck wanted his kid to get in at the last moment and they found me who they could disqualify because of my eyesight. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 27, 2020, 10:35:44 AM
Quote from: Riffraft on March 27, 2020, 10:29:10 AM
My father was red/green colorblind and worked as an electrician for years. In this day and age he would never get licensed. On really complicated wiring where there were multi colored/striped wires he would bring a piece how and go over again and again with my mom so he could identify the various wires by the "intensity" of the color.

It was fun playing Uno with him. And we always had a good laugh when he picked out his own clothes instead of mom.
I'm an electrical engineer. Resistors have their resistance value identified by colored stripes. 

I had trouble with that in college, not because I didn't know the system, but because I'd have to ask people "what color is this?" in order to identify resistor values. 

I was so happy when I started dealing with surface mount resistors that have the value silkscreened into the top of them. 

I mostly avoid any issues with picking out my own clothes... Because everything I own is basically gray or blue or black, so it's pretty easy. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 27, 2020, 10:48:12 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on March 27, 2020, 08:38:42 AM
I have tried a dozen different ways to attach it.  It’s not working🤨

I will keep
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-evidence-over-hysteria


try again.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 27, 2020, 10:55:32 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/WA2weQt.png)

I think this is why pilots can't be color blind.  That thin red line is called "Never Exceed Speed".  I'm told bad things happen above that, like wings shearing off etc.  And you shouldn't be in the yellow in "turbulent conditions".
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 27, 2020, 11:01:47 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 27, 2020, 10:35:44 AM
I mostly avoid any issues with picking out my own clothes... Because everything I own is basically gray or blue or black, so it's pretty easy.
well, you live in Cali

that's all they wear
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 27, 2020, 11:02:25 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 27, 2020, 10:55:32 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/WA2weQt.png)

I think this is why pilots can't be color blind.  That thin red line is called "Never Exceed Speed".  I'm told bad things happen above that, like wings shearing off etc.  And you shouldn't be in the yellow in "turbulent conditions".
what red line?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 27, 2020, 11:42:09 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 27, 2020, 10:35:44 AM
I'm an electrical engineer. Resistors have their resistance value identified by colored stripes.

I had trouble with that in college, not because I didn't know the system, but because I'd have to ask people "what color is this?" in order to identify resistor values.

I was so happy when I started dealing with surface mount resistors that have the value silkscreened into the top of them.

I mostly avoid any issues with picking out my own clothes... Because everything I own is basically gray or blue or black, so it's pretty easy.
Yup, can't imagine how troubling that would have been!

I still have and use the soldering station I bought for myself during those glorious old lab days.  EE321 and EE321K were the labs, if I recall correctly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 27, 2020, 01:39:54 PM
We are just back from a 4 mile walk mostly through the very nice residential area north of us.  The azaleas and dogwoods are in full bloom and they have a golf course which made me sad the Masters is delayed.  It won't be the same.  Glorious weather, I feel sorry for the local restaurants that have outdoor dining, which is most of them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Abba on March 27, 2020, 01:57:01 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 27, 2020, 11:02:25 AM
what red line?

So outdated technology is why the colorblind can't fly?  Just digitize it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 27, 2020, 02:53:57 PM
Digital readouts would be a nightmare for pilots.  You don't want to look down and see 107 knots, you want to see where the needle is very quickly in relation to the various other gauges you need to read with a glance.  The position of the indicator is what you notice, not the specific airspeed or attitude or compass heading.  The frequencies on the radios and transponder are digital.  Even in "glass cockpits", they display analog style gauges for most things of importance.

You learn to scan the gauges in a specific T shape and you notice if something is "off" without having to read some digital output.  This is why nearly all cars went back to analog gauges even if they are LEDs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 27, 2020, 03:06:23 PM
many groups out on the golf course?

I played Tuesday afternoon here and plan to play Sunday afternoon

highs in the mid 50s
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 27, 2020, 03:08:21 PM
Maybe put further colorblind talk on the stream thread?


In other news, the governor closed all golf courses in Illinois.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 27, 2020, 03:09:19 PM
brilliant!!!

for both statements
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 27, 2020, 03:58:08 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 27, 2020, 02:53:57 PM
 This is why nearly all cars went back to analog gauges even if they are LEDs.

Yeah my instrument cluster is all LED but the speedo is analog.  It also has a middle section with dozens of readouts that you can cycle through, including adding in a digital numerical speedo, but any time I've done this, I find it very distracting and look at the analog gauge anyway.




Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 27, 2020, 03:59:59 PM
Oh, and in Corona news, apparently China has re-shut=down all its movie theaters once again.  They were starting to open up, but now are closing down again.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-china-orders-all-movie-theaters-to-close-again-2020-3 (https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-china-orders-all-movie-theaters-to-close-again-2020-3)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 27, 2020, 04:08:13 PM
Hollywood and Bollywood taking a hit
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 27, 2020, 04:22:57 PM
Governor Cuomo closed the "broad" definition of construction services today, which will probably trickle to other states. Like mine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 27, 2020, 04:34:08 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 27, 2020, 03:59:59 PM
Oh, and in Corona news, apparently China has re-shut=down all its movie theaters once again.  They were starting to open up, but now are closing down again.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-china-orders-all-movie-theaters-to-close-again-2020-3 (https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-china-orders-all-movie-theaters-to-close-again-2020-3)


I guarantee we do this 2-3 times after cases start to decrease.  Because people are even more allergic to statistics (and bell curves and math) than they are to the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 27, 2020, 04:38:11 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 27, 2020, 03:59:59 PM
Oh, and in Corona news, apparently China has re-shut=down all its movie theaters once again.  They were starting to open up, but now are closing down again.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-china-orders-all-movie-theaters-to-close-again-2020-3 (https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-china-orders-all-movie-theaters-to-close-again-2020-3)
I've been watching all the numbers closely, and have been thinking that there's no way that the numbers coming out of China are remotely accurate. Even countries lauded for how well they're managing, countries with <10x the number of cases as China, have been reporting new daily case counts higher than China. 

Now, if the China numbers were accurate, there'd be no reason to order movie theater closures. If they're hiding the numbers, then closing the theaters makes perfect sense. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 27, 2020, 04:40:21 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 27, 2020, 04:38:11 PM
I've been watching all the numbers closely, and have been thinking that there's no way that the numbers coming out of China are remotely accurate. Even countries lauded for how well they're managing, countries with <10x the number of cases as China, have been reporting new daily case counts higher than China.

Now, if the China numbers were accurate, there'd be no reason to order movie theater closures. If they're hiding the numbers, then closing the theaters makes perfect sense.
China's been lying out their ass all along.  As recently as 1/15 they were informing the rest of the world that it was not communicable from human-to-human, even though they were already in the midst of shutting major areas down as a result of the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 27, 2020, 04:47:30 PM
The combination of ability to stay "alive" for long periods on hard surfaces and for the contagious to show no symptoms for 5-11 days is the problem (or a lot of the problem).

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on March 27, 2020, 04:57:13 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 27, 2020, 06:19:46 AM
You can't pass a flight medical exam if you are colorblind, interestingly enough.  You also can't be diabetic (they may have modified that rule).

This is a Class III, the lowest class.
When I was flying Apaches, we had a great young lieutenant come up diabetic on his annual flight physical.  He was permanently grounded.  He didn't want to transfer to another branch of the Army, so he received an honorable discharge.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 27, 2020, 05:05:11 PM
https://247sports.com/college/georgia/Article/Coronavirus-SEC-Commissioner-Greg-Sankey-confident-CFB-College-Football-season-starts-on-time-SEC-145460208/?fbclid=IwAR0C5Ow5UFvmpzlbo4BkmPjf4fR4I21ExbxlWnwAkDbweZca1gaFUBG1zCI (https://247sports.com/college/georgia/Article/Coronavirus-SEC-Commissioner-Greg-Sankey-confident-CFB-College-Football-season-starts-on-time-SEC-145460208/?fbclid=IwAR0C5Ow5UFvmpzlbo4BkmPjf4fR4I21ExbxlWnwAkDbweZca1gaFUBG1zCI)

“The focus is on beginning the football season labor day weekend like we’re accustomed to,” Sankey said. “I do think, my focus is on, how do we help our teams prepare so at some point we anticipate emerging from this stay at home, social distancing expectation. Our (leaders) will guide us through that so I don't think anyone really knows (when the coronavirus will end). There's all kinds of predictions.”

While Sankey seems confident the season will be unaffected, ESPN commentator and former Ohio State quarterback Kirk Herbstreit would be “shocked” if there were college football this Fall. (https://247sports.com/Article/Kirk-Herbstreit-would-be-shocked-if-college-football-happens-coronavirus-cancels-sports-COVID-19-145450010/)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 27, 2020, 05:18:22 PM
I think Sankey is saying nothing here.  He's trying to intimate a feeling of optimism based on ... hope.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 27, 2020, 05:46:27 PM
@847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) you'll love this one...

https://twitter.com/DrDenaGrayson/status/1243309216930168834?s=20 (https://twitter.com/DrDenaGrayson/status/1243309216930168834?s=20)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 27, 2020, 06:11:06 PM
Thank you for posting coronavirus information in the coronavirus thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 27, 2020, 06:56:27 PM
I found plenty of eggs this afternoon t the grocery, but still no toilet paper

I was most excited about finding the new Budweiser Nitro Reserve Gold
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 27, 2020, 06:58:49 PM
I'll take the Budweiser Nitro Reserve Gold talk to the appropriate thread - see ya
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on March 27, 2020, 07:36:41 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 27, 2020, 04:22:57 PM
Governor Cuomo closed the "broad" definition of construction services today, which will probably trickle to other states. Like mine.
Our regularly scheduled bid opening went as normal today. 

Walz's stay-at-home order starts tonight. You can already see the effects of the work-from-home edict on the automatic traffic counters. RTMC hasn't needed to turn the ramp meters on in a week. 

Minneapolis Parks has already closed a few parkways down by St Anthony Falls, with the idea being to give more space. I don't see a Chicago-style trail shutdown, but I've been surprised before. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 27, 2020, 08:05:00 PM
Just joined our nightly 8 PM applause on the balcony "tradition", one I'd like to be over soonish.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 27, 2020, 08:06:13 PM
Illannoy Tollway is losing its ass right now. Nobody is driving.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 27, 2020, 08:34:08 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 27, 2020, 08:05:00 PM
Just joined our nightly 8 PM applause on the balcony "tradition", one I'd like to be over soonish.
annoying
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MichiFan87 on March 27, 2020, 11:57:36 PM
I doubt this happens, but it's an interesting thought.

https://thespun.com/more/top-stories/college-football-season-move-up-july-report (https://thespun.com/more/top-stories/college-football-season-move-up-july-report)

Of course the SEC schools would be whining about how they have to play their games in extreme heat and humidity.....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 28, 2020, 08:23:56 AM
IF the virus abates this summer (which is by no means assured), I fear fall practice will start up and maybe two games are played and then it is shut down.

Polio virus was more active in the summer.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 28, 2020, 08:35:52 AM
We're virtually guaranteed of opening things back up too early - having the virus flare up again, and basically delaying normalcy another 2 months or so.  
Watch it happen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 28, 2020, 08:53:13 AM
The shut down orders have come from mayors and governors, so only they can reverse that decision.  Obviously, NYC is in no shape to open up any time soon.  I doubt any large city will.  Albany, GA is a hot spot as a small city.  Few people will be willing to fly obviously even if the planes are nearly empty.

I think that hand washing is perhaps the most critical step.  A friend who is a nurse practitioner posted an interesting piece about how wearing gloves can be bad if you are not trained in the protocol.  I worry a lot about our health care workers coming down with this in larger numbers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 28, 2020, 09:11:55 AM
My hands are really dry right now.

The Mayor of Chicago is thinking this will peak here mid-April or so. We're not going to be out of the woods until June, most likely, maybe July.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 28, 2020, 09:24:46 AM
hand washing is great, but only if you also disinfect your cell phone each time you wash your hands
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 28, 2020, 09:36:09 AM
I've made bleach wipes for the car - wheel,shifter,door latches also for house doors when I enter.Trying to get in the habit of everytime,but I haven't head out alot either
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 28, 2020, 09:47:40 AM
a squirt gun full of clorox should be on your hip at all times
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 28, 2020, 10:09:37 AM
damn, was scrolling thru the TV guide, encouraged to see, "The Longest Yard" on TBS

disappointed to find out it's the 2005 version with Adam Sandler

he's no Burt Reynolds
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 28, 2020, 10:33:16 AM
Not sure the summer will stop this. It's spreading fine in Malaysia right now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 28, 2020, 10:37:23 AM
Mel Gibson got it in Australia - during the summer 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 28, 2020, 11:13:05 AM
The wife just told me our daughter in France (mother of four boys) has it, which means her husband will get it for sure.  Their son is the one who had open heart surgery in January.  He should be OK by now, I hope, and of course we can't get over there to help this time.

We'd probably get it and make things worse.  So that's two in my immediate family.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 28, 2020, 11:27:41 AM
Sorry to hear, @Cincydawg (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=870) -- best wishes to you and your family. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 28, 2020, 11:30:32 AM
good luck and God Bless
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 28, 2020, 11:36:36 AM
Prayers for you and yours, CD.  Very sorry to hear this, pls keep us posted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 28, 2020, 11:38:40 AM
All the best to your family, CDawg.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on March 28, 2020, 11:46:21 AM
Best wishes to you and your loved ones, CD.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 28, 2020, 12:33:23 PM
 friend just called, wondering about video conferencing a group of us can use to host a virtual get together.  Probably should ask my daughters, but thought I'd throw it out here for recommendations.

I've heard of an App called Houseparty

anything else out there?  Maybe something you've used for business?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 28, 2020, 12:36:19 PM
Speakeasy
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 28, 2020, 12:37:38 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 28, 2020, 09:47:40 AM
a squirt gun full of clorox should be on your hip at all times
Corona won't killz me - clorox perhaps
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 28, 2020, 12:39:09 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 28, 2020, 11:36:36 AM
Prayers for you and yours, CD.  Very sorry to hear this, pls keep us posted.
THIS
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 28, 2020, 12:40:34 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 28, 2020, 12:36:19 PM
Speakeasy
says its an app for interpreters and cost $$$
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 28, 2020, 12:44:20 PM
found the conference call speakeasy - pricing options as well

I'm a cheap ass if ya hadn't noticed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 28, 2020, 12:53:09 PM
Just back from a walk.  One of our favorite restaurants is now doing curbside by pastries, wine, and coffee only.  WE'll order a cheesecake at 5 PM.  The largest hotel nearabouts is totally closed down.  We talked to the guy in front a bit.  

https://www.fourseasons.com/atlanta/ (https://www.fourseasons.com/atlanta/)

Construction if continuing.  Nothing else is open.  Museum, symphony, playhouse of course all shuttered.  MARTA is dying for lack of revenue.  Whole Foods is open.  I can't imagine the economic cost of this right now.  $2 trillion is not going to touch it.

I should stay in the park, it's too depressing to walk about town and see the devastation.  And the weather is perfect again today.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 28, 2020, 12:54:32 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 28, 2020, 12:44:20 PM
I'm a cheap ass if ya hadn't noticed
Nope - too many greedy knobs
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 28, 2020, 01:02:14 PM
We're using Zoom to do a virtual dock party tonight.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 28, 2020, 01:13:41 PM
Just wait until the Jehovah's Witnesses find out we're all home

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 28, 2020, 01:15:52 PM
Yeah I did a ZOOM happy hour with friends from Austin and San Diego yesterday afternoon.  It was good to see/hear from several of them.  Also a little sad and depressing.  But more happy than sad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 28, 2020, 01:20:43 PM
thanks, I'll give Zoom a try
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 28, 2020, 01:20:58 PM
I'm sorry CD, I hope they'll be okay.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 28, 2020, 01:30:22 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 28, 2020, 01:13:41 PM
Just wait until the Jehovah's Witnesses find out we're all home


Now that's funny. I don't care who you are.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 28, 2020, 01:37:05 PM
We've used Skype. I've used Google Hangouts a long time ago, and found it pretty good. But haven't tried it for a few years.

I haven't really used Zoom personally, but it seems to be the "hot" app right now. That might be a downside though. I've noticed for work that Webex has been much more flaky lately, largely because I think the increase in traffic is overwhelming them. Zoom might have the same issue.

Picking a less trendy app might be a better option. Though that it's on a Saturday evening maybe will help somewhat. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 28, 2020, 01:46:39 PM
options are good, Skype, Zoom, and HouseParty
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on March 28, 2020, 02:01:36 PM
We use Zoom and Go-to meeting for work, and I'm not a huge fan of either.  Left to our own, my small team has been using Google Hangouts with good results.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MichiFan87 on March 28, 2020, 02:06:02 PM
In my experience there's not much difference between Google, Skype, and Zoom for personal use, even in the past few weeks. I just let other people decide which to use.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on March 28, 2020, 03:01:22 PM
We have web ex at work and use it a ton. I probably have had 10 web ex a day the past two weeks.  The best strategy in these times is to try and have off time meetings.    Start at quarters and 25s.  

We do mostly old school 3 and 4 ways and that remains foolproof. 

Web ex is very temperamental these past few weeks.

I have resorted to using Skype im which I'd swear I'd never use.   As a BD using im used to be forbidden as you couldn't reliably archive all messages, that's been figured out recently.  It's been useful on a small scale.  

Kids use zoom and facetime 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 28, 2020, 03:15:48 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s49nfxStZXY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s49nfxStZXY)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 28, 2020, 03:42:58 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/abbott-launches-5-minute-covid-19-test-for-use-almost-anywhere?fbclid=IwAR1h3aPTKtMWupAabZDFOKbM3S2xMwVC33Pp2SlNJ3a-rNt5s0f7nX9g0EQ (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/abbott-launches-5-minute-covid-19-test-for-use-almost-anywhere?fbclid=IwAR1h3aPTKtMWupAabZDFOKbM3S2xMwVC33Pp2SlNJ3a-rNt5s0f7nX9g0EQ)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 28, 2020, 03:49:55 PM
My very large computer manufacturing corporation used to be standardized on Skype, but is currently switching to Zoom.  Both are still currently supported, but Zoom is way more stable these days, which makes sense if the company is committing the majority of its infrastructure resources to the new platform.

We run all of it on our own servers, so increased usage from the rest of the world isn't our issue, but since so many more people are WFH within out own company, that's where the resources are being stretched thin.

Anyway, it's working well enough to get business done.

It's funny watching all of the "n00b" work-from-home folks attempting to set up video conferences, while all of the grizzled old veterans are all... "nah, I'm good, laptop camera is covered with duct tape anyway... ":)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 28, 2020, 03:58:05 PM
good tip on the duct tape
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 28, 2020, 04:07:20 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 28, 2020, 03:58:05 PM
good tip on the duct tape
I had to remove it last night for that virtual happy hour we did over Zoom.

Reminds me, I need to put it back on.  Don't want it randomly turning on in the middle of a conference call with my executive VP whilst I'm working from home in my Winnie the Pooh pajamas.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 28, 2020, 04:45:22 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 28, 2020, 03:42:58 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/abbott-launches-5-minute-covid-19-test-for-use-almost-anywhere?fbclid=IwAR1h3aPTKtMWupAabZDFOKbM3S2xMwVC33Pp2SlNJ3a-rNt5s0f7nX9g0EQ (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/abbott-launches-5-minute-covid-19-test-for-use-almost-anywhere?fbclid=IwAR1h3aPTKtMWupAabZDFOKbM3S2xMwVC33Pp2SlNJ3a-rNt5s0f7nX9g0EQ)
This was on the news here last night.


Good company. I bought some of it last week. Long play, of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 28, 2020, 04:46:21 PM
My camera is covered too. My wife's is not. We'll use her machine for tonight.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 28, 2020, 04:54:49 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 28, 2020, 04:07:20 PM
Reminds me, I need to put it back on.  Don't want it randomly turning on in the middle of a conference call with my executive VP whilst I'm working from home in my Winnie the Pooh pajamas.
Could be worse might catch you in Longhorn gear
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 28, 2020, 05:13:56 PM
Winnie the Pooh pajamas are burnt orange
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 28, 2020, 07:20:31 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 28, 2020, 04:54:49 PM
Could be worse might catch you in Longhorn gear
Both my executive VP, and his boss, the multi-billionaire founder/owner of my employer (which is named for him) are Longhorns, so that would be A-OK. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 28, 2020, 07:23:21 PM
So Dell?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 28, 2020, 07:25:42 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 28, 2020, 07:23:21 PM
So Dell?
I've never mentioned the name of the extremely large computer manufacturing corporation headquartered in Round Rock, Texas, that I work for. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on March 28, 2020, 08:53:40 PM
My latest laptop issue has a slide tab which can block the camera.  Pretty nice addition and inconspicuous. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 28, 2020, 09:32:09 PM
Awesome dock party on Zoom tonight.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MichiFan87 on March 28, 2020, 10:19:33 PM
I will say the one problem with Zoom is the free version limits you to 40 minutes. The other times I've used it I got a 10 minute warning, but tonight I didn't....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 29, 2020, 12:31:24 PM
Quote from: MarqHusker on March 28, 2020, 08:53:40 PM
My latest laptop issue has a slide tab which can block the camera.  Pretty nice addition and inconspicuous.
was it manufactured by a corporation headquartered in Round Rock, Texas?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 29, 2020, 12:31:51 PM
Quote from: MichiFan87 on March 28, 2020, 10:19:33 PM
I will say the one problem with Zoom is the free version limits you to 40 minutes. The other times I've used it I got a 10 minute warning, but tonight I didn't....
40 minutes?
that sucks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 29, 2020, 01:15:29 PM
To extend it costs $15. Not a big deal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 29, 2020, 01:24:10 PM
$15 each?

another 40 minutes?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 29, 2020, 01:32:17 PM
Anyone finding good sales online now that stores are floundering with brick and mortar shutdowns? 

My wife needed new pants and found them 55% off and free shipping. So I looked and my normal jeans were 33-50% marked down plus 20% on top of that at Gap. So I stocked up with 4 new pairs. 

I wonder if it's a good time to stock up on other things while they're artificially cheap... 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 29, 2020, 01:33:13 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 29, 2020, 01:24:10 PM
$15 each?

another 40 minutes?
$15 total, for unlimited time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 29, 2020, 01:36:38 PM
sweet
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 29, 2020, 01:37:22 PM
There were 16 people total. So less than $1 each person. Well worth it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 29, 2020, 02:08:53 PM
I misspoke. It's $15/month, not $15 per meeting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 29, 2020, 02:18:47 PM
even better
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 29, 2020, 02:30:49 PM
If this thing doesn't abate during summer (which is looking more dubious), CFB is the least of our worries.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 29, 2020, 05:01:23 PM
A friend sent me this

I told my wife how thankful I was to have someone I enjoyed be quarntined with......she said "it must be nice"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 29, 2020, 05:06:09 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 29, 2020, 01:32:17 PM
Anyone finding good sales online now that stores are floundering with brick and mortar shutdowns?
Fairly certain this virus started in China,makes ya wonder though if Jeff Bezos sponsered the lab.....or Bat
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 29, 2020, 07:58:42 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 29, 2020, 05:01:23 PM
A friend sent me this

I told my wife how thankful I was to have someone I enjoyed be quarntined with......she said "it must be nice"
Ouch.  I am very blessed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 29, 2020, 09:33:30 PM
Fairly certain it was in jest
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 29, 2020, 09:58:55 PM
as far as you know.........
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 30, 2020, 06:42:48 AM
I ordered three pieces of cheesecake from our local favorite restaurant.  The manager added two more pieces to the order.  I chatted with him a bit, he says they are starting limited carry out main menu Monday, so we'll probably do that for dinner.  I gave the extra to our neighbors.  I try and avoid dessert, I was just trying to help, each slice is $9.50, it's really good stuff.

The manager was optimistic, I told him we'd do what we can to help out.  This is the guy who cooked up free meals for anyone in the industry on Thursday before the closed.  He was in the kitchen cooking and the staff had bags of meals for a long line outside.  I may try the new burger place for lunch.  Imagine opening into the middle of this mess.  I never heard of the place.

http://metroatlantaceo.com/news/2019/07/famous-sf-burger-spot-sams-expanding-atlanta/ (http://metroatlantaceo.com/news/2019/07/famous-sf-burger-spot-sams-expanding-atlanta/)

Sam’s is heading to ATL

Long-running North Beach burger spot Sam’s, praised by the late Anthony Bourdain as the home of a “top three” burger in the world, is opening a much larger location in Atlanta, Georgia. The unfussy late-night favorite for foodies and chefs at 618 Broadway will unveil a southern spinoff in a shiny new building in midtown Atlanta. “Sam’s of San Francisco will be a hybrid spinoff of what we currently have in San Fran,” co-owner Fadi El Shawa told What Now Atlanta (https://whatnowatlanta.com/sams-of-san-francisco-midtown/). He and brothers Hani and Emad have run the business sine the passing of their father, Mike “Sam” El Shawa, whose own uncle Sam opened the counter in 1966. Not only will the new Sam’s be bigger than the hole-in-the-wall original, it will feature a larger menu, with as many as 50 burgers and 100 sandwiches, and beer and wine from San Francisco and Napa for Atlantans to enjoy.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 30, 2020, 02:35:14 PM
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections (https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections)

Sobering charts therein for the US.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 30, 2020, 02:59:17 PM
Oil drops more than 6% to 18-year low as global demand evaporates

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 30, 2020, 03:05:36 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 30, 2020, 02:35:14 PM
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections (https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections)

Sobering charts therein for the US.
And what's potentially worse about this? 


Quote
The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths.

So this is assuming that the entire country actually gets on board with these measures.

I assume it's also predicated on compliance with social distancing measures, which as we've been discussing has not been nearly as strong as it should be. 

My neighbors had guests over every night this past weekend, and someone who I'm quite sure doesn't live there was hanging out with them in their garage. That's what you get for living near Raiders fans :96:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 30, 2020, 03:07:44 PM
https://www.atlantamagazine.com/news-culture-articles/atlantas-latest-coronavirus-updates-wednesday-march-25/?fbclid=IwAR2z9tIDhu47kHfyjAgv9ohFSn42znfJCiKBmIatLWXlfZ-8FwDbiNTHSgA (https://www.atlantamagazine.com/news-culture-articles/atlantas-latest-coronavirus-updates-wednesday-march-25/?fbclid=IwAR2z9tIDhu47kHfyjAgv9ohFSn42znfJCiKBmIatLWXlfZ-8FwDbiNTHSgA)

In my area, I'd say everyone I see is actively maintaining distance.  We have not walked today but I went to Kroger.

The Waffle House Index is broken.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 30, 2020, 03:12:24 PM



https://www.cafeintermezzo.com/midtown-atl-ga (https://www.cafeintermezzo.com/midtown-atl-ga)

The manager has in interesting CV and life story, a geophysics degree.

Ahmet was surprised by the warm reception and patience displayed by those he met when he began studying at the University of Georgia. There, he worked as a dishwasher for the UGA dining hall system, and climbed his way up the chain at Damon’s Steakhouse, while learning English and completing grad school.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on March 30, 2020, 05:32:25 PM
So my mother in law has a situation with a few employees she is dealing with. She is running a successful small  family business that has been in business over 50 years now.

It’s a hardware store but they also do outside jobs such as install doors, windows, awnings, etc.  It isn’t shut down because it is considered an essential business.

They have 4 guys who do the outside work.  The unofficial leader of that group has been encouraging the others to tell my MIL how unsafe they feel.  He’s a long time employee but has been a royal PITA over the years on different issues. She has tried to be sympathetic but she is coming to work everyday as are the rest of the in-store employees. She told them they could use their vacation time but they didn’t want to do that. The in store employees have a lot more contact with the public than the outside guys. Anyway, none of the outside guys showed up for work today. They told her they weren’t quitting but didn’t feel safe working right now.

She called my wife looking for advice on how to handle it.  We told her to contact each of them and tell them they are open for business and she has work that needs to be done. If they don’t report for work tomorrow then she will work under the assumption they have voluntarily resigned and will fight any unemployment claims.  She’s a little more soft hearted than my wife though.  I’ll be interested to see what happens.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 30, 2020, 05:41:38 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on March 30, 2020, 05:32:25 PM
So my mother in law has a situation with a few employees she is dealing with. She is running a successful small  family business that has been in business over 50 years now.

It’s a hardware store but they also do outside jobs such as install doors, windows, awnings, etc.  It isn’t shut down because it is considered an essential business.

They have 4 guys who do the outside work.  The unofficial leader of that group has been encouraging the others to tell my MIL how unsafe they feel.  He’s a long time employee but has been a royal PITA over the years on different issues. She has tried to be sympathetic but she is coming to work everyday as are the rest of the in-store employees. She told them they could use their vacation time but they didn’t want to do that. The in store employees have a lot more contact with the public than the outside guys. Anyway, none of the outside guys showed up for work today. They told her they weren’t quitting but didn’t feel safe working right now.

She called my wife looking for advice on how to handle it.  We told her to contact each of them and tell them they are open for business and she has work that needs to be done. If they don’t report for work tomorrow then she will work under the assumption they have voluntarily resigned and will fight any unemployment claims.  She’s a little more soft hearted than my wife though.  I’ll be interested to see what happens.
I don't think you can do that. This new CARE act might provide a way out. Need to talk to an attorney.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on March 30, 2020, 06:18:31 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 30, 2020, 05:41:38 PM
I don't think you can do that. This new CARE act might provide a way out. Need to talk to an attorney.
Idk.  I’m certainly not an expert on the CARE act.  As I understand it part of the money to small businesses is to incentivize them not to lay off employees.  These guys are wanting to be laid off.  Between unemployment and the stimulus money coming their way I think they think they can weather the financial storm a while, get a little time off, and then come back to work.  I think that’s why they were careful to say they weren’t quitting.

Are they legitimately worried about their health?  Idk the real answer to that.  Knowing the ring leader a little I have my doubts about him. I think he’s an opportunist but I may be unfairly judging him.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 30, 2020, 06:31:22 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on March 30, 2020, 06:18:31 PM
Idk.  I’m certainly not an expert on the CARE act.  As I understand it part of the money to small businesses is to incentivize them not to lay off employees.  These guys are wanting to be laid off.  Between unemployment and the stimulus money coming their way I think they think they can weather the financial storm a while, get a little time off, and then come back to work.  I think that’s why they were careful to say they weren’t quitting.

Are they legitimately worried about their health?  Idk the real answer to that.  Knowing the ring leader a little I have my doubts about him. I think he’s an opportunist but I may be unfairly judging him.
Yeah, but the key point you mention is her fighting the unemployment claims. That's where there'd be trouble. 

If she just agreed with them, laid them off (which is what they want given the stimulus), and they got their unemployment plus the extra money, they'd probably enjoy being "paid" without having to work. But she doesn't agree with them--she has plenty of work and is an essential business--so she doesn't want to lay them off. 

So if she's trying to terminate them for cause [absenteeism], she might be able to get away with it because her business has work available. But I don't know if there's anything in the law that protects an employee who is "afraid to come to work" in this environment. 

But I agree with @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) -- as a business owner I would HOPE she has a lawyer retained. This is one of those things she needs to ask her lawyer, not us. Because none of us bear the cost of being wrong, and she does. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 30, 2020, 06:46:28 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 30, 2020, 06:31:22 PM
Yeah, but the key point you mention is her fighting the unemployment claims. That's where there'd be trouble.

If she just agreed with them, laid them off (which is what they want given the stimulus), and they got their unemployment plus the extra money, they'd probably enjoy being "paid" without having to work. But she doesn't agree with them--she has plenty of work and is an essential business--so she doesn't want to lay them off.

So if she's trying to terminate them for cause [absenteeism], she might be able to get away with it because her business has work available. But I don't know if there's anything in the law that protects an employee who is "afraid to come to work" in this environment.

But I agree with @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) -- as a business owner I would HOPE she has a lawyer retained. This is one of those things she needs to ask her lawyer, not us. Because none of us bear the cost of being wrong, and she does.
This.

I have 2 field guys (out of 8) who are refusing to go out, due to conditions they had. We asked for a doctor note for each and they did not provide. We told them they could use up their PTO and to hope that the Fed comes through with help for them (and probably us). Neither has resigned, nor have they provided any note. One is back to work.

The CARE act is too new for me (or anyone) to know WTF to do with it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 30, 2020, 07:33:50 PM
So, the county I live in has been fortunate so far, despite the fact that it is on the 95 corridor and filled with people from New York and New Jersey.

But the surrounding counties are shelter in place.  None of the northeasterners are paying any attention to it. Despite them being mostly older, and all the restaurants and businesses are closed, the roads are clogged and any business that is open ( gas station, car wash, grocery, convenience store) is jammed all day every day.

Went to the local golf course which is typically empty on Monday’s.  Tee times taken for two weeks, driving range was waiting list, and parking lot filled with New York and New Jersey plates.

Guys behind the counter in pro shop said virtually none of these people are from this county. They have not only bolted New York against the shelter in place, they freely leave the counties down here where they are supposed to stay.  Frustrating is an understatement.  Especially when they come from a place where they encourage illegal immigrants, shelter those who happen to be felons from ICE, have a Health Commissioner who openly and on camera told them in early February that New York was more than prepared for the virus and they should be comfortable dining out, using the subway, and by all means attending the big parade ( next day).  And then they have the gall to blame others for their own negligence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on March 30, 2020, 07:37:32 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on March 30, 2020, 07:33:50 PM
So, the county I live in has been fortunate so far, despite the fact that it is on the 95 corridor and filled with people from New York and New Jersey.

But the surrounding counties are shelter in place.  None of the northeasterners are paying any attention to it. Despite them being mostly older, and all the restaurants and businesses are closed, the roads are clogged and any business that is open ( gas station, car wash, grocery, convenience store) is jammed all day every day.

Went to the local golf course which is typically empty on Monday’s.  Tee times taken for two weeks, driving range was waiting list, and parking lot filled with New York and New Jersey plates.

Guys behind the counter in pro shop said virtually none of these people are from this county. They have not only bolted New York against the shelter in place, they freely leave the counties down here where they are supposed to stay.  Frustrating is an understatement.  Especially when they come from a place where they encourage illegal immigrants, shelter those who happen to be felons from ICE, have a Health Commissioner who openly and on camera told them in early February that New York was more than prepared for the virus and they should be comfortable dining out, using the subway, and by all means attending the big parade ( next day).  And then they have the gall to blame others for their own negligence.
Running into that in WV some as well.  It is when one of the least infected states so far.  Apparently flocks of people from NY/NJ are making their way down here staying at camp grounds, shopping at our stores, etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 30, 2020, 07:44:44 PM
We thought about going down to Florida. We are not, even though the area we own in is still not hit that hard. It's only a matter of time, and the healthcare up here is what I know better - IF needed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 30, 2020, 09:10:33 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on March 30, 2020, 07:37:32 PM
Running into that in WV some as well.  It is when one of the least infected states so far.  
Least infected simply means least tested.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 30, 2020, 09:11:39 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 30, 2020, 07:44:44 PM
We thought about going down to Florida. We are not, even though the area we own in is still not hit that hard. It's only a matter of time, and the healthcare up here is what I know better - IF needed.
FL is one of the states that hasn't issued a shelter-in-place order or whatever its called.  A lot of old people that are being needlessly exposed anytime they venture out.

AZ just did it today.  Our school year is officially ended, although we're doing online teaching.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 30, 2020, 09:15:32 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on March 30, 2020, 07:37:32 PM
Running into that in WV some as well.  It is when one of the least infected states so far.  Apparently flocks of people from NY/NJ are making their way down here staying at camp grounds, shopping at our stores, etc.
Condescending corksuckers make fun of the hill folk/mid west then come down and pollute the place with them shitty selves.They Love New York - stay there
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 30, 2020, 09:17:32 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 30, 2020, 09:11:39 PM
FL is one of the states that hasn't issued a shelter-in-place order or whatever its called.  A lot of old people that are being needlessly exposed anytime they venture out.

AZ just did it today.  Our school year is officially ended, although we're doing online teaching.
sure bout that?


https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/490159-governor-to-issue-stay-at-home-order-for-south-florida (https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/490159-governor-to-issue-stay-at-home-order-for-south-florida)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 30, 2020, 09:20:42 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 30, 2020, 09:10:33 PM
Least infected simply means least tested.
possibly, possibly not
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 30, 2020, 09:22:37 PM
That governor should be brought up on charges.Finally following responsible protocol after letting spring break go on weeks ago.MORON
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 30, 2020, 09:30:35 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 30, 2020, 09:17:32 PM
sure bout that?


https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/490159-governor-to-issue-stay-at-home-order-for-south-florida (https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/490159-governor-to-issue-stay-at-home-order-for-south-florida)
Only the very bottom end of the state. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 30, 2020, 09:40:46 PM
I don't get that, why not the entire state?

it's like they are encouraging the spread, just wanting to control it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on March 30, 2020, 09:42:38 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 30, 2020, 09:10:33 PM
Least infected simply means least tested.
There is something to that but it’s also a very isolated state.  Mountains separate communities from each other. It’s a poor state. People here don’t have the means to travel as some others.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on March 30, 2020, 10:02:58 PM
Got a lot of use this weekend out of a little fire pit we built in the backyard last summer.  Perfect nights for it. Warm enough that you weren’t cold sitting out there but cool enough that a fire and a light jacket or blanket felt good.

Just sat out there, binge watching Ozark on Netflix while sipping a beer or two.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on March 30, 2020, 10:34:33 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on March 30, 2020, 07:37:32 PM
Running into that in WV some as well.  It is when one of the least infected states so far.  Apparently flocks of people from NY/NJ are making their way down here staying at camp grounds, shopping at our stores, etc.
On the one hand, I'm sure its a burden. On the other, I was listening to a podcast by a basketball writer who lives in queens and left for Connecticut. He felt it wasn't fair to his 5-year-old daughter to coop her up in a two-bedroom apartment for months on end. And in a free country where someone has the means to pursue space, they'll probably do it. 

(And if they're there, should they leave the stores to y'all and just not eat?)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on March 30, 2020, 10:39:31 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 30, 2020, 09:15:32 PM
Condescending corksuckers make fun of the hill folk/mid west then come down and pollute the place with them shitty selves.They Love New York - stay there
If I've learned something in living in places of all different sizes and multiple regions, the simple reality is this: folks are folks. Some are jerks, some are not. New Yorkers are no more a monolith than midwesterners. We often paint with a broad brush, but these places are wildly different across pretty piddling distances. A 30 minute drive from where I live takes me to a whole different kind of place. 

Anyway, the urban folks who think they're special are wrong, and they're wrong if they look down on folks from WV or the midwest. But there's plenty of looking down coming the other direction too, like the post above. And in the end, people are people, not special nor magical. And the differences are often played up for one reason or another. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on March 30, 2020, 11:18:19 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on March 30, 2020, 10:34:33 PM
On the one hand, I'm sure its a burden. On the other, I was listening to a podcast by a basketball writer who lives in queens and left for Connecticut. He felt it wasn't fair to his 5-year-old daughter to coop her up in a two-bedroom apartment for months on end. And in a free country where someone has the means to pursue space, they'll probably do it.

(And if they're there, should they leave the stores to y'all and just not eat?)
Nah, I see that too.  I asked my wife just the other day as our kids were outside playing in our yard, “What do kids in these big cities who live in apartments do?  The playgrounds are closed up. They don’t have yards to play in.”  So, I get that part of it.

With that being said, NY has roughly 10x the population of WV but roughly 180x the number of positive CV cases.  So, it shouldn’t be a big surprise that some locals down this way are less than thrilled to see an influx of New Yorkers making their way to the mountains.  They are making their way down here for their selfish reasons so there’s a tendency for people down here to be critical of it for our own selfish reasons.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 30, 2020, 11:27:17 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 30, 2020, 09:17:32 PM
sure bout that?


https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/490159-governor-to-issue-stay-at-home-order-for-south-florida (https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/490159-governor-to-issue-stay-at-home-order-for-south-florida)
This is exactly the problem.
Reactive, not proactive.
You counties with 58% of the virus cases, you stay home.
The other parts, with 42% of the cases, do what you want.
.
Again, MATH.  It's only a matter of time before the whole state does it.  The waiting (for whatever the hell reason) is what will make it worse WHEN it happens.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on March 30, 2020, 11:46:04 PM
I've been enjoying talking w my Dad this week about some of the extended 'sheltered' situations hes had in life, whether that was aboard ship for months or some of his particular tedious stakeout assignments which lasted weeks at a time.  I remember the later.  Where's Dad?  Uh, on a detail in X, back in 3 weeks.  

It's not a get off my lawn story hour but in his words 'it's all of that that makes this an easy, 'temp' (his word for an assignment).   I should note OAM, part of those temps involved playing the old SI college football board game, later known as Bowl Bound, with his fellow agents on assignment.

The more things the change the more they stay the same.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 31, 2020, 12:23:19 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on March 30, 2020, 10:34:33 PM
On the one hand, I'm sure its a burden. On the other, I was listening to a podcast by a basketball writer who lives in queens and left for Connecticut. He felt it wasn't fair to his 5-year-old daughter to coop her up in a two-bedroom apartment for months on end. And in a free country where someone has the means to pursue space, they'll probably do it.

(And if they're there, should they leave the stores to y'all and just not eat?)
So really-what you are advocating is those who are being asked to shelter in place have every right to disobey? 

I am not even agreeing or disagreeing/ just clarifying. 


so like New York Michigan has a very bad hotspot going on right now and many of those people have second homes in Florida or could escape to Florida but apparently are just not doing that. But the New Yorkers are. Does that make them smarter or better or dumber or what?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MichiFan87 on March 31, 2020, 12:38:47 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on March 31, 2020, 12:23:19 AM
So really-what you are advocating is those who are being asked to shelter in place have every right to disobey? 

I am not even agreeing or disagreeing/ just clarifying. 


so like New York Michigan has a very bad hotspot going on right now and many of those people have second homes in Florida or could escape to Florida but apparently are just not doing that. But the New Yorkers are. Does that make them smarter or better or dumber or what?


Before too long, people who live in Metro Detroit and other wealthy areas of the state will be going to up to their lake houses in Northern and Western Michigan, too. Same story with people from metro Chicago going to Michigan or Northern Wisconsin, or Bostonians going to ME/NH/VT.

The problem is there's no national restrictions and in many cases not even state-wide ones.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 31, 2020, 12:44:00 AM
Quote from: MichiFan87 on March 31, 2020, 12:38:47 AM
Before too long, people who live in Metro Detroit and other wealthy areas of the state will be going to up to their lake houses in Northern and Western Michigan, too. Same story with people from metro Chicago going to Michigan or Northern Wisconsin, or Bostonians going to ME/NH/VT.

The problem is there's no national restrictions and in many cases not even state-wide ones.
Good point.  And where there are restrictions- not much enforcement. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on March 31, 2020, 12:45:30 AM
Northern WI counties are asking folks not to visit, even if they OWN, homes in these locales.   Some of these counties still have zero reported cases. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on March 31, 2020, 01:07:43 AM
Quote from: MarqHusker on March 31, 2020, 12:45:30 AM
Northern WI counties are asking folks not to visit, even if they OWN, homes in these locales.  Some of these counties still have zero reported cases.
The county I live in still has zero reported cases but I hold out no hope that will remain the case.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 31, 2020, 06:24:50 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 30, 2020, 09:22:37 PM
That governor should be brought up on charges.Finally following responsible protocol after letting spring break go on weeks ago.MORON
So should JB Pritzker, for allowing the Illinois primary election to happen on March 17.


He has a lot of blood on his hands for that one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 31, 2020, 06:27:55 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 31, 2020, 06:24:50 AM
So should JB Pritzker, for allowing the Illinois primary election to happen on March 17.


He has a lot of blood on his hands for that one.
At least DeSantis, the Florida Governor, has put up checkpoints on 95 and 75 coming into Florida. 
he also has established security checkpoints for all flights landing from New York and there are lots of them.

They caught a guy the other day who landed in Jacksonville from New York who knowingly was diagnosed with the virus but took the plane anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 31, 2020, 06:29:49 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on March 31, 2020, 06:27:55 AM
At least DeSantis, the Florida Governor, has put up checkpoints on 95 and 75 coming into Florida.
he also has established security checkpoints for all flights landing from New York and there are lots of them.

They caught a guy the other day who landed in Jacksonville from New York who knowingly was diagnosed with the virus but took the plane anyway.
Domestic terrorist.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 31, 2020, 08:28:07 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on March 30, 2020, 10:39:31 PM
Anyway, the urban folks who think they're special are wrong, and they're wrong if they look down on folks from WV or the midwest. But there's plenty of looking down coming the other direction too, like the post above. And in the end, people are people, not special nor magical. And the differences are often played up for one reason or another.
Perhaps but the post above isn't PC or possibly speading a virus by not staying at home - can't have it both ways
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 31, 2020, 08:35:11 AM
Wisconsin is set to hold its primary next week, April 7, in the midst of a "stay at home" order.

Unreal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 31, 2020, 08:39:18 AM
Great time to be a hacker/technology crook
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 31, 2020, 10:12:40 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on March 31, 2020, 12:23:19 AM
So really-what you are advocating is those who are being asked to shelter in place have every right to disobey? 

I am not even agreeing or disagreeing/ just clarifying. 

so like New York Michigan has a very bad hotspot going on right now and many of those people have second homes in Florida or could escape to Florida but apparently are just not doing that. But the New Yorkers are. Does that make them smarter or better or dumber or what?
Well, the idea is to shelter in place. Essentially avoid people, only leave the house for essentials, etc. 

But which place? 

As long as someone from NY is going to their other house and following the same sort of shelter in place options that they are asked to follow in NY, I don't really see an issue. They're just as likely or unlikely to catch/spread COVID-19 at a grocery store in CT or WV than in NY--perhaps LESS likely because the population density of NY doesn't allow as much opportunity for social distancing. 

The restrictions don't bother me much because I have a yard and I can still go for walks--it's easy to social distance in my suburban environment. Much harder in NYC, where most people live in cramped apartments and going for a walk would entail being close to tons of people. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on March 31, 2020, 10:18:56 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on March 31, 2020, 12:23:19 AM
So really-what you are advocating is those who are being asked to shelter in place have every right to disobey? 

I am not even agreeing or disagreeing/ just clarifying. 


so like New York Michigan has a very bad hotspot going on right now and many of those people have second homes in Florida or could escape to Florida but apparently are just not doing that. But the New Yorkers are. Does that make them smarter or better or dumber or what?


Hmmm, the use of the word "right" is interesting. In the grand scale, I suppose they have more than a few "rights" to disobey because rights tend to be narrowly defined and somewhat powerful. In this case, I'd assume it would fall into a gray area. There's no outright ban on city-to-country travel or even city to city travel. You shouldn't do it, but then you find yourself in an interesting discussion of social contract. Can I concretely reduce my own risk at the theoretical risk to others? I don't know.

I also don't even have a concrete feel on the timing of all of it. The testing and testing for antibodies is so limited right now, we're just in a state of flux. 

(I'd assume the Michigan/Florida dynamic is slightly different because you can't get there in one contained car trip. The going to a lake house thing up north is more interesting, especially when it comes to "rights," as that's depriving you use of your own property)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 31, 2020, 10:24:19 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 31, 2020, 10:12:40 AM
Well, the idea is to shelter in place. Essentially avoid people, only leave the house for essentials, etc.

But which place?

As long as someone from NY is going to their other house and following the same sort of shelter in place options that they are asked to follow in NY, I don't really see an issue. They're just as likely or unlikely to catch/spread COVID-19 at a grocery store in CT or WV than in NY--perhaps LESS likely because the population density of NY doesn't allow as much opportunity for social distancing.

The restrictions don't bother me much because I have a yard and I can still go for walks--it's easy to social distance in my suburban environment. Much harder in NYC, where most people live in cramped apartments and going for a walk would entail being close to tons of people.

In a semi-related vein, I've been wondering what the threat of pandemic spread within dense urban environments, will do to the relatively recent trend of building more densely in urban areas in the Western United States.

Like many other cities, Austin has been pushing for development of more dense, mixed-use buildings in its urban core.  Initially those types of developments were simply offered more incentives, tax abatements, etc.  But for the past several years, the city codes themselves have been modified to restrict or even prohibit the types of construction that the city council deems undesirable, and only allow the more population-dense urban developments.

There are certainly disadvantages to urban and suburban sprawl, but during times like these, I wonder if folks will have some second thoughts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on March 31, 2020, 10:26:11 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 31, 2020, 08:28:07 AM
Perhaps but the post above isn't PC or possibly speading a virus by not staying at home - can't have it both ways
I don't know exactly what this sentence fragment means. 

I don't 100 percent even know if the post wasn't PC, since that's a squishy term that borders on meaninglessness. 

But in the end, we often pretend that some folks are very the same and some folks are very different, and neither is particularly correct.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 31, 2020, 10:36:33 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on March 31, 2020, 10:18:56 AM
(I'd assume the Michigan/Florida dynamic is slightly different because you can't get there in one contained car trip. The going to a lake house thing up north is more interesting, especially when it comes to "rights," as that's depriving you use of your own property)
You almost can. If we were to go, and it's highly doubtful we will for a number of reasons, we'd contain in the car by sleeping in it at a rest area.

The only time outside of the car would be to relieve ourselves, and with that you just keep your distance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on March 31, 2020, 11:10:21 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 31, 2020, 10:12:40 AM
Well, the idea is to shelter in place. Essentially avoid people, only leave the house for essentials, etc.

But which place?

As long as someone from NY is going to their other house and following the same sort of shelter in place options that they are asked to follow in NY, I don't really see an issue. They're just as likely or unlikely to catch/spread COVID-19 at a grocery store in CT or WV than in NY--perhaps LESS likely because the population density of NY doesn't allow as much opportunity for social distancing.

The restrictions don't bother me much because I have a yard and I can still go for walks--it's easy to social distance in my suburban environment. Much harder in NYC, where most people live in cramped apartments and going for a walk would entail being close to tons of people.
I guess I assumed that wherever you were residing when the shelter in place was issued is where you stayed.  If I keep changing where I shelter in place then it seems like that defeats the purpose to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 31, 2020, 11:16:45 AM
Humans forget quickly and resume normal practices.  I live in an area of very intense development and housing.  The typical building is apartments about 30 stories tall.  There are projects still going all over to build new ones.  Most of the growth is still outside the Perimeter which is mostly suburbs.  I don't think this changes.  We have about half a million inside ATL city limits and 11 times that many outside.  The inside is growing some now after years of decline, but not as fast as outside.

https://atlanta.curbed.com/maps/map-midtown-atlanta-development-apartment-condo-office (https://atlanta.curbed.com/maps/map-midtown-atlanta-development-apartment-condo-office)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 31, 2020, 11:17:35 AM
Quote from: Kris60 on March 31, 2020, 11:10:21 AM
I guess I assumed that wherever you were residing when the shelter in place was issued is where you stayed.  If I keep changing where I shelter in place then it seems like that defeats the purpose to me.
This is one of the many reasons we are not going to Florida.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 31, 2020, 11:30:27 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on March 31, 2020, 10:26:11 AM
I don't know exactly what this sentence fragment means.

I don't 100 percent even know if the post wasn't PC, since that's a squishy term that borders on meaninglessness.

But in the end, we often pretend that some folks are very the same and some folks are very different, and neither is particularly correct.
If your including the above post then obviously yes
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 31, 2020, 11:36:26 AM
Quote from: Kris60 on March 31, 2020, 11:10:21 AM
I guess I assumed that wherever you were residing when the shelter in place was issued is where you stayed.  If I keep changing where I shelter in place then it seems like that defeats the purpose to me.
Yes correct,some folks want to lecture even question/chastise others feelings regarding this.If the folks who visit your area are consistent vacationers it's one thing.Not sure I'd be drinking from the same fountain or getting into the same car as any of them.Good Luck
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 31, 2020, 12:51:31 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on March 31, 2020, 11:10:21 AM
I guess I assumed that wherever you were residing when the shelter in place was issued is where you stayed.  If I keep changing where I shelter in place then it seems like that defeats the purpose to me.
Not really. It's about minimizing contact with people. Outside of truly remote rural areas, it's assumed that the virus is basically everywhere. And even in the NYC metro area (8.6M people), confirmed case counts of 75K suggest that fewer than 1 in 100 people has a confirmed case - and that's comparing JUST the population of NYC, where we don't know that all 75K cases are NYC versus the rest of the state.

If you combine NY, NJ, CT and PA case counts (~100K), assuming every case in every one of those states is only in the NYC metro, and compare them against the NYC metro area population in total (23M), that's one person in less than 200 having a confirmed case.

So you assume that if you're asymptomatic, you're trying to avoid becoming infected more than you're trying to avoid spreading infection.

Obviously you don't want to constantly go back and forth from place to place, and you don't want to go to a place with fewer restrictions just to go galavanting out and about. But I think the risks of moving from one place to another, THEN staying there and sheltering in that place, are minimal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on March 31, 2020, 12:53:16 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on March 30, 2020, 05:32:25 PM
So my mother in law has a situation with a few employees she is dealing with. She is running a successful small  family business that has been in business over 50 years now.

It’s a hardware store but they also do outside jobs such as install doors, windows, awnings, etc.  It isn’t shut down because it is considered an essential business.

They have 4 guys who do the outside work.  The unofficial leader of that group has been encouraging the others to tell my MIL how unsafe they feel.  He’s a long time employee but has been a royal PITA over the years on different issues. She has tried to be sympathetic but she is coming to work everyday as are the rest of the in-store employees. She told them they could use their vacation time but they didn’t want to do that. The in store employees have a lot more contact with the public than the outside guys. Anyway, none of the outside guys showed up for work today. They told her they weren’t quitting but didn’t feel safe working right now.

She called my wife looking for advice on how to handle it.  We told her to contact each of them and tell them they are open for business and she has work that needs to be done. If they don’t report for work tomorrow then she will work under the assumption they have voluntarily resigned and will fight any unemployment claims.  She’s a little more soft hearted than my wife though.  I’ll be interested to see what happens.
The company that my wife works for has had this same issue. Some workers stated that they didn't feel safe coming to work. The owner told them they are more than welcome to not come to work, but he is not laying them off. They can take vacation if they have any, otherwise they will be going without pay. He also explained that the company was deemed essential and they had customers that expected their shipments. Therefore, he could not guarantee that anyone refusing to work would have a job when this thing was over. 

At the same time, the county health department was called and came into inspect the business. After an inspection, the county health official stated that the company was in compliance with the COVID regulations, with one of them being that employees work stations were at least 6 feet apart. 

The funny thing was that the employees that claimed to be in the greatest fear of their health, would congregate in the break room, sitting together at a small table. Apparently all they really wanted was paid time off. They didn't get it.

Also when the county health department showed up, they informed the owner that anyone that calls off sick with a soar throat, high fever or a bad cough, will have to provide a note from a doctor before returning to work. That was a shock to a few that tried that route. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 31, 2020, 12:58:29 PM
Sounds about exactly what we did 10 days ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on March 31, 2020, 01:06:01 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 31, 2020, 11:30:27 AM
If your including the above post then obviously yes
That is was not PC? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on March 31, 2020, 01:10:50 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on March 31, 2020, 11:10:21 AM
I guess I assumed that wherever you were residing when the shelter in place was issued is where you stayed.  If I keep changing where I shelter in place then it seems like that defeats the purpose to me.
There's a case for that, but when this all started up, it's not like we told everyone who was in Europe, who seemed like prime disease vectors, to just stay right there, so clearly there is some gray area. 

I kind of read those orders as being about bunkering down, but not necessarily a command to bunker down right exactly where you are at that moment. On that note, I'm going to go for a walk. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 31, 2020, 01:16:35 PM
It's not a huge deal, just a pet peeve, but I really dislike the term "shelter in place" as it is being used in the context of this quarantine.

Shelter-in-place is a disaster-related term, which means extreme danger is imminent.  Around here, specifically,  it's used for hurricanes and tornadoes.  It doesn't imply "stay at home" at all-- to the contrary,  when a shelter-in-place order is issued, and you're not at your home, it means DO NOT go home.  You should find physical shelter wherever you currently happen to be, and stay there, until the physical threat has passed and you are told it's okay to move about once again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on March 31, 2020, 01:40:43 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 31, 2020, 12:51:31 PM
Not really. It's about minimizing contact with people. Outside of truly remote rural areas, it's assumed that the virus is basically everywhere. And even in the NYC metro area (8.6M people), confirmed case counts of 75K suggest that fewer than 1 in 100 people has a confirmed case - and that's comparing JUST the population of NYC, where we don't know that all 75K cases are NYC versus the rest of the state.

If you combine NY, NJ, CT and PA case counts (~100K), assuming every case in every one of those states is only in the NYC metro, and compare them against the NYC metro area population in total (23M), that's one person in less than 200 having a confirmed case.

So you assume that if you're asymptomatic, you're trying to avoid becoming infected more than you're trying to avoid spreading infection.

Obviously you don't want to constantly go back and forth from place to place, and you don't want to go to a place with fewer restrictions just to go galavanting out and about. But I think the risks of moving from one place to another, THEN staying there and sheltering in that place, are minimal.
But we’ve also been told you can be asymptomatic and still be a carrier and still be contagious.  So it puts people on edge that people, even though they may be asymptomatic, are leaving the biggest hot spot in the country and seeking refuge down here.  I understand why they are coming but it isn’t hard to understand why locals aren’t thrilled about it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 31, 2020, 01:47:23 PM
I was reading a bit more about the virus being present 17 days on a cruise ship, and they measured RNA, not "live" virus.  The virus could have denatured by then and given a positive reading on RNA.  I believe the best data is survival for 1-2 days under ideal conditions on smooth hard surfaces, which is bad enough obviously.  Sunlight will kill it as will any surfactant in water.

I can't find anything reliable about how often it is spread by a sneeze or cough.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 31, 2020, 02:00:51 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 31, 2020, 01:47:23 PM
I was reading a bit more about the virus being present 17 days on a cruise ship, and they measured RNA, not "live" virus.  The virus could have denatured by then and given a positive reading on RNA.  I believe the best data is survival for 1-2 days under ideal conditions on smooth hard surfaces, which is bad enough obviously.  Sunlight will kill it as will any surfactant in water.

I can't find anything reliable about how often it is spread by a sneeze or cough. 
That is good. I have been waiting for some context on that thing. Hopefully that detail makes it to the same front pages that reported the 17 day thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 31, 2020, 02:11:57 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on March 31, 2020, 01:40:43 PM
But we’ve also been told you can be asymptomatic and still be a carrier and still be contagious.  So it puts people on edge that people, even though they may be asymptomatic, are leaving the biggest hot spot in the country and seeking refuge down here.  I understand why they are coming but it isn’t hard to understand why locals aren’t thrilled about it.
Oh, I get that, and why people aren't thrilled about it. Especially if people are fleeing NYC and then being stupid about how they conduct themselves wherever they end up. And I'm sure there's a lot of that.

But if I lived in a tiny NYC apartment and at the same time had a vacation home in WV, I'd much rather go to the house in WV. I'd make sure I had all the supplies I needed for a few weeks so that I wasn't just running all over the place interacting with people, but at least I'd be able to go outside my door, take a walk, etc without thinking I'd be endangering myself or others. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on March 31, 2020, 02:15:46 PM
To add a little levity to the discussion I’ll share this story.  My kids hadn’t had Chick-Fil-A since all this started and had been asking for it.  So yesterday I took them through the CFA drive through to get something.  CFA, being CFA, had a big white canopy for their workers to stand under to shelter them.  I guess this confused enough people they had to put a sign up in the drive through that read, “Not a Covid 19 Testing Site.”

Naturally, as soon as I pulled up I asked if this was a Covid 19 testing site.😀
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 31, 2020, 02:25:10 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on March 31, 2020, 01:06:01 PM
That is was not PC?
I'm really not getting your pointless vernacular bitchery.You started in on me defending someone who had a legitimate concern.No need to reply-really
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 31, 2020, 02:41:04 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 31, 2020, 01:47:23 PM
I was reading a bit more about the virus being present 17 days on a cruise ship, and they measured RNA, not "live" virus.  The virus could have denatured by then and given a positive reading on RNA.  I believe the best data is survival for 1-2 days under ideal conditions on smooth hard surfaces, which is bad enough obviously.  Sunlight will kill it as will any surfactant in water.

I can't find anything reliable about how often it is spread by a sneeze or cough. 
Thanx CD
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 31, 2020, 03:43:24 PM
We need glasses like these to spot the infected.  Plus this clip is just legendary.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wp_K8prLfso (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wp_K8prLfso)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 31, 2020, 03:47:28 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 31, 2020, 03:43:24 PM
We need glasses like these to spot the infected.  Plus this clip is just legendary.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wp_K8prLfso (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wp_K8prLfso)
Bravo!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on March 31, 2020, 04:16:02 PM
Apparently our Governor shut down any more out of staters trying to bed down at privately owned camp grounds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 31, 2020, 04:24:31 PM
Just in case anyone missed it:

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 31, 2020, 04:24:43 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on March 31, 2020, 04:16:02 PM
Apparently our Governor shut down any more out of staters trying to bed down at privately owned camp grounds.
Just out of staters? Or did he shut down the campgrounds entirely? 

If it's just out of staters, that would be a clear violation of interstate commerce and not Constitutional. Though I wonder if it would be upheld under the grounds of a health emergency...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 31, 2020, 04:26:47 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 31, 2020, 04:24:43 PM
Just out of staters? Or did he shut down the campgrounds entirely?

If it's just out of staters, that would be a clear violation of interstate commerce and not Constitutional. Though I wonder if it would be upheld under the grounds of a health emergency...
Yeah.. we can't become separate countries. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 31, 2020, 04:32:33 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 31, 2020, 04:24:43 PM
Just out of staters? Or did he shut down the campgrounds entirely?

If it's just out of staters, that would be a clear violation of interstate commerce and not Constitutional. Though I wonder if it would be upheld under the grounds of a health emergency...
I'm thinking it's like "national security" - you can do whatever you want in crisis mode.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on March 31, 2020, 05:00:22 PM
https://wvva.com/2020/03/31/breaking-gov-justice-orders-halt-to-elective-medical-procedures-closes-private-campgrounds-to-out-of-state-visitors/

Says closed to out of staters.  Idk.  He’s already closed all state park campgrounds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 31, 2020, 05:12:53 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on March 31, 2020, 04:16:02 PM
Apparently our Governor shut down any more out of staters trying to bed down at privately owned camp grounds.
Does that include squatters who've already pitched tents?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on March 31, 2020, 05:16:36 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 31, 2020, 05:12:53 PM
Does that include squatters who've already pitched tents?
He said if you are already there then you can stay as long as you are self-isolating.  No one new though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on March 31, 2020, 05:37:59 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on March 31, 2020, 05:00:22 PM
https://wvva.com/2020/03/31/breaking-gov-justice-orders-halt-to-elective-medical-procedures-closes-private-campgrounds-to-out-of-state-visitors/

Says closed to out of staters.  Idk.  He’s already closed all state park campgrounds.
I'm interested in what the calculus of allowing in-staters would be? I suppose they could be leaving some of the state's urban centers, though those tend to be pretty small. 

I also wonder if it wouldn't hold up in court, but it would need to be challenged, and by the time it was, it would all be over.

The most interesting part of that is the phrase "We remain the highest risk state in the nation." That got my attention. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on March 31, 2020, 05:38:36 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on March 31, 2020, 04:16:02 PM
Apparently our Governor shut down any more out of staters trying to bed down at privately owned camp grounds.
This past weekend, the Minnesota DNR shut down all state park and forest campgrounds and revoked all active camping permits. Parks are still open for day use, with appropriate distancing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 31, 2020, 05:40:46 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on March 31, 2020, 05:37:59 PM
I'm interested in what the calculus of allowing in-staters would be? I suppose they could be leaving some of the state's urban centers, though those tend to be pretty small.

I also wonder if it wouldn't hold up in court, but it would need to be challenged, and by the time it was, it would all be over.

The most interesting part of that is the phrase "We remain the highest risk state in the nation." That got my attention.
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fej.iop.org%2Fimages%2F0266-5611%2F28%2F4%2F045008%2FFull%2Fip402226eqn20.gif&hash=5b63ce0be8c95bbc2343def96f700944)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on March 31, 2020, 05:54:20 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 31, 2020, 02:25:10 PM
I'm really not getting your pointless vernacular bitchery.You started in on me defending someone who had a legitimate concern.No need to reply-really
Listen man, I'll say this nicely. I literally didn't understand what in the hell your reply meant. And each reply was meant to untangle it in this system in which only the quoted text stays up there. 

I think that quoted phrasing was pretty uncalled for. But rather than reply in kind, I'll just say whatever. I assume since there's no need to reply, I won't get one and we'll move on. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 31, 2020, 05:54:38 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on March 31, 2020, 05:37:59 PM
The most interesting part of that is the phrase "We remain the highest risk state in the nation." That got my attention.
I'm assuming that means that due to state poverty, health issues, etc, that they think those in WV are more at risk for mortality due to COVID-19 than average.

I.e. a history of coal mining, and the associated respiratory issues that go with it, probably make it a much more dangerous disease to anyone who came from that field. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 31, 2020, 05:54:52 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 31, 2020, 05:40:46 PM
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fej.iop.org%2Fimages%2F0266-5611%2F28%2F4%2F045008%2FFull%2Fip402226eqn20.gif&hash=5b63ce0be8c95bbc2343def96f700944)

I was going to say that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on March 31, 2020, 05:55:38 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 31, 2020, 05:40:46 PM
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fej.iop.org%2Fimages%2F0266-5611%2F28%2F4%2F045008%2FFull%2Fip402226eqn20.gif&hash=5b63ce0be8c95bbc2343def96f700944)

To veer this off course, Badge, the rate at which one's calculus knowledge atrophies is something to behold. That's like a muscle that needs near constant work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 31, 2020, 05:56:46 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on March 31, 2020, 05:55:38 PM
To veer this off course, Badge, the rate at which one's calculus knowledge is something to behold. That's like a muscle that needs near constant work.
I'm sure I agree. I doubt I can do trigonometry without a refresher, much less calculus. 

Of course these days, I can't even help my damn 7 year old first-grader with her math homework. Stupid new math. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on March 31, 2020, 05:56:53 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 31, 2020, 05:54:38 PM
I'm assuming that means that due to state poverty, health issues, etc, that they think those in WV are more at risk for mortality due to COVID-19 than average.

I.e. a history of coal mining, and the associated respiratory issues that go with it, probably make it a much more dangerous disease to anyone who came from that field.
Interesting. I was wondering if there was a deficit in hospital resources, but the coal thing makes sense too. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 31, 2020, 06:02:29 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on March 31, 2020, 05:54:20 PM
Listen man, I'll say this nicely. I literally didn't understand what in the hell your reply meant. And each reply was meant to untangle it in this system in which only the quoted text stays up there.

I think that quoted phrasing was pretty uncalled for. But rather than reply in kind, I'll just say whatever. I assume since there's no need to reply, I won't get one and we'll move on.
I'm not quoted phrasing anything you can go stay with the New Yorkers - those that don't seem to want play by the rules in Florida or WV that was pointed out by two different posters.That you feel the need to dress me down for pointing it out .Put your PC to work and those rose colored glasses on ignore the problem and by all means hammer on.SMDH
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 31, 2020, 06:02:57 PM
And before @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) jumps on me for my criticism of "new math"... I get it. I see what they're doing--trying to actually make students understand the concepts of what they're teaching in a way that doesn't come across with rote learning of skills. If it ends up working, it might make these students grow up to understand numbers in a way that too few adults these days do.

But hell... The method I was taught addition worked freaking great. It still works great. It scales up easily to big numbers. 

Instead I'm trying to draw "quick tens" and figure out what the heck a "number bond" is, so that I can then re-learn these techniques myself and figure out how to explain them to her. 

OAM--what grade do you teach? I gotta say, all respect to you, because there's no way I could survive more than a week as a teacher, unless I was MAYBE at AP math/science levels in high school, or a college prof. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on March 31, 2020, 06:10:56 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on March 31, 2020, 05:55:38 PM
To veer this off course, Badge, the rate at which one's calculus knowledge atrophies is something to behold. That's like a muscle that needs near constant work.
Yup, but the quick derivation trick helps move up and down the scale quickly. 

I'll admit I use trig far more than I should probably admit, but I'm also in a line of work that uses it regularly. And I just got my license to hang on the wall. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on March 31, 2020, 06:14:19 PM
Also, if anyone here is in need of some STEM-related material for their distance learning, let me know. I do a lot of stuff with our agency's STEM outreach, and would love to help. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on March 31, 2020, 06:14:36 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 31, 2020, 05:54:38 PM
I'm assuming that means that due to state poverty, health issues, etc, that they think those in WV are more at risk for mortality due to COVID-19 than average.

I.e. a history of coal mining, and the associated respiratory issues that go with it, probably make it a much more dangerous disease to anyone who came from that field.
Yeah, he means with all the underlying health issues the residents of our state already have.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 31, 2020, 06:15:47 PM
My math skills are gone.  My piano playing is slowly recovering.

I can drink like a fish.

I made it through diff eq back in the day, never had a use for it really.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 31, 2020, 06:17:12 PM
In an interesting development a nearby high end ( but reasonably priced) golf course just sent an interesting email.  

It basically it says that effective immediately in order to gain entry or make a Tee Time, you must produce a drivers license proving you reside in this county or the one directly north- where the virus has not yet proliferated.  

As I had mentioned before- it was overrun by people from two counties to the south where Shelter in place is in place and courses are closed. Additionally/ a high % of those are visitors from New York and New Jersey. 

Curious- how do you all feel about that?

For me- it makes total sense.   If you are coming from a place where the disease has spread strongly- to play golf with people who come from a place where it hasn’t-only to go right back to where you were supposed to stay in place - you are wrong to be doing that.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 31, 2020, 06:20:49 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 31, 2020, 06:02:57 PM


OAM--what grade do you teach? I gotta say, all respect to you, because there's no way I could survive more than a week as a teacher, unless I was MAYBE at AP math/science levels in high school, or a college prof.
You wouldn't believe me if I told you.
.
The "new" math is only useful AFTER the students get their math facts down (traditional learning) first.  Once that's done, then yeah, they're simply explicitly DOING what our minds are thinking quickly.  It's just tedious because you have to slow it down enough to write it out and ideally EXPLAIN it.  If they can explain how they got something, that's a kid without any more hurdles in front of them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 31, 2020, 06:26:22 PM
The WV thing, keeping people out, is fine, but it's not going to change the future.  Rural areas will get hit hard, just on a delay.  Yes, jack-wagons from NYC may infect some in WV, but it's going to happen either way.  
.
A great (horrible) example that's on a fast-forward timeline is the Navajo reservation.  You couldn't find a more isolated place.  BUT - probably 80% of the adult males work down in Phoenix/Mesa (or elsewhere) and go back home every week or two.  Bringing that virus up with them - a SUPER isolated place that isn't on the way to anywhere, is now inundated with cases.
.
It's a fast-forwarded timeline because they go to the big city and back like clockwork, on a schedule.  
.
The people in tiny towns in WV or WY or ND are going to see the cities start to improve (eventually) and start "going to town" for doctor visits or a big grocery trip or whatever and bring it back to their small town with them.  As the cities improve, the rural will flare.  It's a (sad) certainty.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on March 31, 2020, 06:31:51 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 31, 2020, 06:02:29 PM
I'm not quoted phrasing anything you can go stay with the New Yorkers - those that don't seem to want play by the rules in Florida or WV that was pointed out by two different posters.That you feel the need to dress me down for pointing it out .Put your PC to work and those rose colored glasses on ignore the problem and by all means hammer on.SMDH
I shoulda been clearer, the quoted phrasing referred to the term “vernacular bitchery.” I felt that was uncalled for.

But for the sake of civility, I should not have dressed you down for calling millions of folks cocksuckers and human pollutants. A man should not be contradicted on such things.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 31, 2020, 07:20:51 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 31, 2020, 06:15:47 PM
I made it through diff eq back in the day, never had a use for it really.
Many never get to Calculus. After Calculus, I still had to take multivariate calculus, differential equations, and linear algebra. 

I don't use any of it. But I'm not sad I went through it, honestly... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 31, 2020, 07:33:32 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 31, 2020, 07:20:51 PM
Many never get to Calculus. After Calculus, I still had to take multivariate calculus, differential equations, and linear algebra.

I don't use any of it. But I'm not sad I went through it, honestly...
we business majors never had to do anything like that

debit credit and amortize thats about it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on March 31, 2020, 07:55:54 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 31, 2020, 07:20:51 PM
Many never get to Calculus. After Calculus, I still had to take multivariate calculus, differential equations, and linear algebra.

I don't use any of it. But I'm not sad I went through it, honestly...
I got as far as calc 3. Ran into the issue of not wanting to study something that was going to carry me through all that. Also seeing the future Drs and engineers slice through the science classes that were making my semesters unpleasant. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 31, 2020, 07:58:26 PM
When I took that test to steer you into the correct math class in college, it recommended Business Calculus.
I was like "F that" and took algebra, lol.  My ability exceeded my desire, to be sure.
.
What is "Business Calculus"?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 31, 2020, 08:08:43 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 31, 2020, 06:26:22 PM
The WV thing, keeping people out, is fine, but it's not going to change the future.  Rural areas will get hit hard, just on a delay.  Yes, jack-wagons from NYC may infect some in WV, but it's going to happen either way. 
.
Watch it there buster or the board sheriff will put you in the shackles of shame - this is no place for sarcasm
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 31, 2020, 09:33:41 PM
that's not sarcasm
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 31, 2020, 09:34:28 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 31, 2020, 07:20:51 PM
I don't use any of it. But I'm not sad I went through it, honestly...
this might indicate a problem

;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 31, 2020, 09:36:36 PM
I have friends that live in small towns and rural areas of Minnesooota that are coming to Iowa to play golf

not much risk, but always some

doubt they will be checked by local courses
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 31, 2020, 09:41:46 PM
also, I drove 4 1/2 hours across the state of Iowa to pickup a trailer for work - purchased new

I will be going to Cedar Rapids either yet this week or next week to pickup a fiber splicing trailer purchased new for the company

I found a similar trailer in Indiana for over $2,000 less, but the boss didn't want me driving to Indiana to pick it up.  Crossing state lines and all.

I got out of the truck to purchase gas and use the restroom once.  I signed the paper in the trailer manufacturer's office.  Stopped at a subway sammich shop for food.  That was it for over 9 hours of travel.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 31, 2020, 11:10:05 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 31, 2020, 09:33:41 PM
that's not sarcasm
That's what I thought
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2020, 12:33:52 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 31, 2020, 07:20:51 PM
Many never get to Calculus. After Calculus, I still had to take multivariate calculus, differential equations, and linear algebra.

I don't use any of it. But I'm not sad I went through it, honestly...
Yup, Calculus, DiffEQ, Vector Calc, and Matrices and Linear Algebra. 

If I were designing radar antennae they'd all be quite useful.  As it is, I still enjoyed the theory.

I'll never forget, though, when I learned that I could use a transform and simple algebra to solve in the frequency domain, problems that called for differential equations in the time domain.  I was actually pissed and almost walked out of class that day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2020, 08:17:29 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 31, 2020, 07:58:26 PM
When I took that test to steer you into the correct math class in college, it recommended Business Calculus.
I was like "F that" and took algebra, lol.  My ability exceeded my desire, to be sure.
.
What is "Business Calculus"?

It's not calculus. It's bulljive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2020, 08:21:16 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 31, 2020, 07:20:51 PM
Many never get to Calculus. After Calculus, I still had to take multivariate calculus, differential equations, and linear algebra.

I don't use any of it. But I'm not sad I went through it, honestly...
I did differential equations and matrix and linear algebra.

I can still do calculus, believe it or not. The "new" math, to me, is garbage. It's like re-writing history to match a narrative. Or everyone gets a trophy.


Pussification of America at its un-finest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 01, 2020, 08:27:34 AM
When I took DiffEq, the professor's son was in the class, he was 16.  He was also smart, duh.  It was amusing.

I ran into some smart people in my life.  A few were arrogant about it, but I'd opine most were unassuming and modest.  I would have been arrogant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 01, 2020, 08:54:36 AM
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-do-face-masks-work.html (https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-do-face-masks-work.html)

https://va.news-republic.com/a/6810058810942554629?app_id=1239&c=fb&gid=6810058810942554629&impr_id=6810199815281510661&language=en&region=us&user_id=6498349256930231306 (https://va.news-republic.com/a/6810058810942554629?app_id=1239&c=fb&gid=6810058810942554629&impr_id=6810199815281510661&language=en&region=us&user_id=6498349256930231306)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 01, 2020, 09:41:56 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2020, 08:21:16 AM
I did differential equations and matrix and linear algebra.

I can still do calculus, believe it or not. The "new" math, to me, is garbage. It's like re-writing history to match a narrative. Or everyone gets a trophy.


Pussification of America at its un-finest.
Yeah, no.  There's plenty of that going on elsewhere, but how you learn math has nothing to do with toughness, lol.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 01, 2020, 09:44:00 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 31, 2020, 08:08:43 PM
Watch it there buster or the board sheriff will put you in the shackles of shame - this is no place for sarcasm
No, no, no - I love that phrase!  Others use jaggoff or something similar.  But anytime I can use jack-wagon, I genuinely enjoy it!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2020, 09:55:30 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 01, 2020, 09:41:56 AM
Yeah, no.  There's plenty of that going on elsewhere, but how you learn math has nothing to do with toughness, lol.
Does too.


Learn it the old fashioned way. You earn it!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 01, 2020, 10:04:07 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 01, 2020, 12:33:52 AM
Yup, Calculus, DiffEQ, Vector Calc, and Matrices and Linear Algebra.

If I were designing radar antennae they'd all be quite useful.  As it is, I still enjoyed the theory.

I'll never forget, though, when I learned that I could use a transform and simple algebra to solve in the frequency domain, problems that called for differential equations in the time domain.  I was actually pissed and almost walked out of class that day.

Ahh, the old FFT... Forgot about those!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on April 01, 2020, 10:07:42 AM
I did all my calculus when I was in High School. Started college taking differential Equation and a number theory class. Number theory was the only math class that I took that totally kicked my a$$. I actually have 3 years of a Mechanical Engineering degree before I decided it just wasn't what I wanted to do. Switch to business because it was the easiest and quickest way I could finish school and get some kind of degree. 

somehow years later I ended up being an accounting without an accounting degree. Eventually getting my CPA certification, so now I work with numbers all the time. But with excel, accounting software and such, my math skills are fairly gone. Could just be old age. :03:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 01, 2020, 10:11:18 AM
I had calculus in HS and started college in honors calculus.  It was completely different stuff, I think we covered the basics on day one and then got into weirdness.  We certainly were not learning how to differentiate some equation after day one.  Some folks in there never had calculus in HS and managed to get by.

My HS calculus teacher admittedly was a bit old and weak.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2020, 10:19:46 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 01, 2020, 08:54:36 AM
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-do-face-masks-work.html (https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-do-face-masks-work.html)

https://va.news-republic.com/a/6810058810942554629?app_id=1239&c=fb&gid=6810058810942554629&impr_id=6810199815281510661&language=en&region=us&user_id=6498349256930231306 (https://va.news-republic.com/a/6810058810942554629?app_id=1239&c=fb&gid=6810058810942554629&impr_id=6810199815281510661&language=en&region=us&user_id=6498349256930231306)



My mom and a bunch of her church-lady friends make pillowcases for the children's hospital, but their contacts at the hospital asked them to switch over to making cloth masks for hospital personnel instead.  Not the frontline workers of course, they still need the full respirators, but the cloth masks do offer at least some protection for other staff.  Or so they are saying.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on April 01, 2020, 10:26:13 AM
Our HS AP Calc teacher was a great guy, and I think we had all the brainpower in my graduating class in the AP2 class. Of the 16 of us in the class, 15 of us either got a 4 or 5. Good stuff. 

I got routed into the liberal arts calculus route, which was different from engineer calc in that engineer calc had us working with and familiarizing ourselves with computer programs that would frequently be used down the line. Two of the three calc professors had completely useless lectures. When it came to matrices, the class required us to grind through a system of equations. Ugh.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 01, 2020, 10:29:16 AM
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-its-so-freaking-hard-to-make-a-good-covid-19-model/ (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-its-so-freaking-hard-to-make-a-good-covid-19-model/)

Interesting discussion about models in this.

I THINK the mask idea is to prevent a contagious person from spreading the virus by sneezing or coughing, not as protection from.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 01, 2020, 10:38:32 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on April 01, 2020, 10:26:13 AM
Our HS AP Calc teacher was a great guy, and I think we had all the brainpower in my graduating class in the AP2 class. Of the 16 of us in the class, 15 of us either got a 4 or 5. Good stuff.
Our AP Physics teacher has a "wall of fame" up for all of his students who got 5s on both the mechanics and the electricity & magnetism portions of the AP Physics test. About a year ago, my friend's daughter was taking his class and saw that both his and my name are still on it, from 25 years ago. 

He was a phenomenal teacher. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 01, 2020, 10:39:42 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 01, 2020, 08:54:36 AM
https://va.news-republic.com/a/6810058810942554629?app_id=1239&c=fb&gid=6810058810942554629&impr_id=6810199815281510661&language=en&region=us&user_id=6498349256930231306 (https://va.news-republic.com/a/6810058810942554629?app_id=1239&c=fb&gid=6810058810942554629&impr_id=6810199815281510661&language=en&region=us&user_id=6498349256930231306)


Hopeful and Helpful perspective,Thanx
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 01, 2020, 10:43:13 AM
We didn't have AP when I was in HS, just 1-2-3 level courses.  My kids' HS had both AP and IB classes.  They were interestingly different, the IB teachers had to be specifically certified for teaching that.  My son took three years of IB physics in HS.  The chemistry teacher didn't have certification.  IB also had a senior level course called "Theory of Knowledge" which was pretty interesting, to me.

We had a lot of European/French families in out district.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on April 01, 2020, 10:44:47 AM
Also, I'm glad that I took the PE exam last fall. Just looked on the NCEES website, and they've outright canceled the spring exam. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2020, 10:47:16 AM
UT engineering didn't allow you to place out of engineering physics, or anything beyond the first semester of calculus.  I got 5s on both, but only got credit for Physics for Physics majors, not engineering physics, and only the first semester of calculus.

Also placed out of history and literature, which I wish I hadn't because those would have been really great classes to take at the college level, but there's no way I would have graduated in 4 years if I hadn't, and back in those days, scholarship money ran out after 4.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on April 01, 2020, 10:51:33 AM
Sorry Couldn't Resist

(https://i.imgur.com/8oWkl8d.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 01, 2020, 10:55:22 AM
well it is April Fool's - good luck to us
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on April 01, 2020, 12:27:31 PM
The local market/apple orchard is doing daily food packages.  You have to sign up online at noon, and they only put together like 10 of them a day, sell out in less than 2 minutes each day.  It's expensive, but it's fresh, fairly comprehensive, and pre-packaged for you, of a known good quality.  You don't get to pick what you get though.

We finally "won" for the first time today

Milk, cider, eggs, butter, pulled pork, mac & cheese, corn, lunch meat, cheese, bread, chili, 2 lbs of mixed veggies, apples, bananas, potatoes, lettuce, cinnamon swirl bread, fresh baked pie

Then I can go off hours to the grocery store for a limited run.  I did the curbside pickup last week, and the problem is all of the slots are filled 6 days out, so you need to plan WAY in advance to put in your order, and then they had to make 9 substitutions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on April 01, 2020, 12:45:09 PM
Ok, let's try this:

Bad: Confirmed cases way up in MN, including 5 more fatalities yesterday. 

Good: over half of the confirmed cases no longer need to be isolated. Also, UMN and Mayo Clinic researchers are well into antibody trials. Much work yet to do, but all involved are pleased with the early returns. 


https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/situation.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 01, 2020, 12:48:39 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on April 01, 2020, 10:51:33 AM
Sorry Couldn't Resist

(https://i.imgur.com/8oWkl8d.jpg)
LMAO. And then get crushed by Ohio at the end....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2020, 12:48:49 PM
That is very encouraging news. Thanks.

We had our networking group meeting on Zoom this morning. First time and it worked well. We had 17 people show up.

My town has 22 cases, most of them in nursing homes. The store director from our local Jewel (grocery) store was also in the meeting. He confirmed that his store has zero (confirmed) cases. 2 of his older workers are staying home for their own sake. There are no symptoms in the store. He will update the group with any changes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 01, 2020, 01:12:34 PM
don't know if it's been discussed yet, but US lawmakers passing that pathetic stimulus bill was a joke. It is essentially just the largest transfer of wealth in the history of this country. I seriously can't believe they decided to do means testing and delay getting money to families that need it. Some won't get it for a month or months. Could've been very easy for the government to just send everyone CashApp, Venmo, PayPal, Zelle instantly. Look at how Canada handled this crisis vs. look at how America handled it. Makes me wish I was Canadian for the first time ever in my life. Let's not to forget about the millions of most vulnerable who need the money most but won't get a single red cent. Think of all the mom and pop places that have been forced to shut down and all the millions of people working at those places living paycheck to paycheck and don't make enough to even bother filing taxes. They aren't getting shit.

I am so sick and fed up with American politicians. They are the most worthless, spineless, useless people on planet earth.

The lawmakers should try to aggressively hammer China. I would LOVE to see them just cancel the $1 trillion US debt with China as punishment for the CCP covering this thing up and for the CCP failing to shutdown the disgusting inhumane, FILTHY disease breeding wet markets that brought this thing upon the world. Would LOVE to see US lawmakers bring manufacturing of essential industries like health/pharmaceuticals back to US soil and pressure the hell out of other US multinationals to bring their manufacturing as well.

This should be a HUGE wake-up call to everyone in this country. The CCP is evil and China is NOT your friend. They are the enemy of the United States of America and the singe largest threat to continued American hegemony. And our stupid, lazy, crooked politicians and our greedy US multinationals turned China into the power that it is. These dumb assholes made it happen. I really think a war with China might actually be necessary in the near future. We need to stop China. Period. And all this Russia Russia Russia bullshit from the Democrats for the last 3 plus years when Russia is a 3rd rate country that's essentially just a giant gas station that Putin controls and not a threat to America at all has done nothing but waste critical time and effort that should've been directed squarely at China.

Trump should've never stopped calling it Chinese virus, and the mainstream media and twitter are a joke by the way. Twitter is banned in China by the CCP, but high-ranking CCP officials have twitter accounts with the checkmarks and can go online on twitter claiming that America started this virus and bio-engineered it in a lab. Give me an F'ing break. CEO of twitter should jump off a bridge. How about you grow a pair and ban CCP officials from using twitter if they ban it from being used in their country.

/END RANT. Sorry guys.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 01, 2020, 01:26:13 PM
" I seriously can't believe they decided to do means testing and delay getting money to families that need it. Some won't get it for a month or months."

I'm a bit confused by this.  I understood it to be based on one's tax return last year and if you made "too much", you would get less, or none, right?

What did Canada do differently?  I read they basically offered expanded UE insurance for those who lost income.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2020, 02:09:20 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 01, 2020, 01:12:34 PM
don't know if it's been discussed yet, but US lawmakers passing that pathetic stimulus bill was a joke. It is essentially just the largest transfer of wealth in the history of this country. I seriously can't believe they decided to do means testing and delay getting money to families that need it. Some won't get it for a month or months. Could've been very easy for the government to just send everyone CashApp, Venmo, PayPal, Zelle instantly. Look at how Canada handled this crisis vs. look at how America handled it. Makes me wish I was Canadian for the first time ever in my life. Let's not to forget about the millions of most vulnerable who need the money most but won't get a single red cent. Think of all the mom and pop places that have been forced to shut down and all the millions of people working at those places living paycheck to paycheck and don't make enough to even bother filing taxes. They aren't getting shit.

I am so sick and fed up with American politicians. They are the most worthless, spineless, useless people on planet earth.

The lawmakers should try to aggressively hammer China. I would LOVE to see them just cancel the $1 trillion US debt with China as punishment for the CCP covering this thing up and for the CCP failing to shutdown the disgusting inhumane, FILTHY disease breeding wet markets that brought this thing upon the world. Would LOVE to see US lawmakers bring manufacturing of essential industries like health/pharmaceuticals back to US soil and pressure the hell out of other US multinationals to bring their manufacturing as well.

This should be a HUGE wake-up call to everyone in this country. The CCP is evil and China is NOT your friend. They are the enemy of the United States of America and the singe largest threat to continued American hegemony. And our stupid, lazy, crooked politicians and our greedy US multinationals turned China into the power that it is. These dumb assholes made it happen. I really think a war with China might actually be necessary in the near future. We need to stop China. Period. And all this Russia Russia Russia bullshit from the Democrats for the last 3 plus years when Russia is a 3rd rate country that's essentially just a giant gas station that Putin controls and not a threat to America at all has done nothing but waste critical time and effort that should've been directed squarely at China.

Trump should've never stopped calling it Chinese virus, and the mainstream media and twitter are a joke by the way. Twitter is banned in China by the CCP, but high-ranking CCP officials have twitter accounts with the checkmarks and can go online on twitter claiming that America started this virus and bio-engineered it in a lab. Give me an F'ing break. CEO of twitter should jump off a bridge. How about you grow a pair and ban CCP officials from using twitter if they ban it from being used in their country.

/END RANT. Sorry guys.
I told my brother this morning that we need to beat this virus, and then declare war on China.

Good rant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2020, 03:07:41 PM
I'm asking again.

Take it to the stream thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 01, 2020, 04:15:42 PM
FORE!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on April 01, 2020, 05:05:51 PM
You can move them, I've done it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 01, 2020, 05:18:51 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2020, 02:09:20 PM
I told my brother this morning that we need to beat this virus, and then declare war on China.

Good rant.
Agreed. But the mainstream media and the dems seem to be the propaganda arm of the CCP. It absolutely blows me away. And sadly most people in this country are mindless sheep. I hate to say it but it’s true. 

China would be nothing if it weren’t for US multinationals setting up shop there to exploit cheap labor. Nothing. And our stupid government allowed it to happen. And the dumbass execs running these companies willingly agreed to enter into CCP backed joint ventures and voluntarily transfer over trade secrets, tech, and ip. What was China before the US? Nothing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 01, 2020, 05:25:20 PM
My, times have changed...

A hundred years ago, the global pandemic came after the world war.

If you guys get your way, the global pandemic will come after and cause the world war this time. 

:smiley_confused1:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 01, 2020, 05:37:49 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 01, 2020, 05:25:20 PM
My, times have changed...

A hundred years ago, the global pandemic came after the world war.

If you guys get your way, the global pandemic will come after and cause the world war this time.

:smiley_confused1:
Not sure it’d be much of a world war. Who would even side with China? Russia, Venezuela, and Iran? Lol.

The rest of the entire world would align with the US against China. 

I don’t think it’d be a very long war. And honestly wouldn’t be a bad thing for the world to bring China to it’s knees get rid of the CCP once and for all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2020, 05:51:49 PM
I think "we" could bring China to its knees economically, as was in progress until this virus was unleashed upon us.

I don't believe for a minute that this thing wasn't spread intentionally, starting in Italy - one of the most traveled-to countries in the World.

Of course, I don't trust China, I've never trusted China, and I never will trust China. Hence, my potential bias.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 01, 2020, 05:56:26 PM
How do y'all expect this war will go? Do we need a ground invasion? Obviously we're not going to try to "conquer" China. What's the goal... Regime change? 

I dunno... I'm not sure it's a great idea to pick a fight with 1.3B people...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2020, 05:59:17 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 01, 2020, 05:56:26 PM
How do y'all expect this war will go? Do we need a ground invasion? Obviously we're not going to try to "conquer" China. What's the goal... Regime change?

I dunno... I'm not sure it's a great idea to pick a fight with 1.3B people...

If their weapons work like their test kits and masks... no worries. 


So long as nobody sold our weapons technology to them, of course. Which is a big IF.


Anyway, even still. Yeah, they have a big army. They don't have the naval means to get that army here. Not even close.



I wonder what Stormin' Norman would do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2020, 06:04:40 PM
It's not a military war.

It's an economic war.  And we've been in it for more than a couple of decades.

Status Report?  They're beating the crap out of us, right now-- and that's largely because a majority in our country don't even realize we're in a war.

But I think this is opening some eyes.  It'll start with revamping our emergency supply chain.  Medications, medical equipment, sensitive technical equipment, etc. We'll have no choice but to push that to more domestic production.

And then as the enemy fights back against us on THOSE fronts, more people will begin to understand the nature, and the extent, of this war.

Just imagine investing all of that capital into Mexico and Latin America, rather than overseas.  Not only would it cripple the enemy, but it could significantly enhance the quality of life to our neighbors to the south, diminishing their suffering which would ultimately help them become independent and less likely to overwhelm our own national resources.  That part won't be easy at all of course.  But it has to start somewhere.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 01, 2020, 06:08:50 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 01, 2020, 05:56:26 PM
How do y'all expect this war will go? Do we need a ground invasion? Obviously we're not going to try to "conquer" China. What's the goal... Regime change?

I dunno... I'm not sure it's a great idea to pick a fight with 1.3B people...
Basically do the opposite of the Iraq and Afghanistan war. Smash them up, topple the government and then leave. No need to try to conquer them and occupy them for years and force a government down their throats. That never works. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 01, 2020, 06:13:15 PM
From what I understand, companies are already trying to leave China. And not because of the current administration's trade policies [although that had an effect].

China is barely even considered a low cost country [LCC] any more... Now they're too close to the first world to be cheap.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 01, 2020, 06:14:36 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2020, 05:59:17 PM
If their weapons work like their test kits and masks... no worries.


So long as nobody sold our weapons technology to them, of course. Which is a big IF.


Anyway, even still. Yeah, they have a big army. They don't have the naval means to get that army here. Not even close.



I wonder what Stormin' Norman would do.
Don’t have to sell them technology- the dirty f’ers steal tech and ip like you wouldn’t believe.

And so many of our stupid ass corporations willingly set up brand new joint venture CCP backed companies and WILLINGLY transferred tech and ip in order to set up production facilities over there. Boeing, GM, Honeywell, GE, etc..

As far as I can tell though US weapons manufacturers aren’t over there. I could be wrong on that don’t quote me. Doesn’t really matter if they aren’t, because China operates the largest espionage ring aimed the US in the entire world. 

Their sole aim is to overthrow the US as the worlds power and they will do anything and everything they can to make that happen. US needs to fight back and fight back dirty. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 01, 2020, 06:19:40 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 01, 2020, 06:13:15 PM
From what I understand, companies are already trying to leave China. And not because of the current administration's trade policies [although that had an effect].

China is barely even considered a low cost country [LCC] any more... Now they're too close to the first world to be cheap.
Doesn’t matter if they want to leave or not. It’s still cheaper for them to produce in China than it is in the US. Even with the tarrifs and wage increases. And these soulless, lifeless mega US multinationals care about nothing more than the bottom line period. The people running them have sold out their own country all in the name of the almighty dollar. 

And even if they leave, doesn’t matter. Those f’n MORONS actually WILLINGLY handed over tech and ip to the CCP in order to operate in China. They sold out their own future and their own people in order to make a quick buck today. China would be a poor 3rd rate backwater still if US/European multinationals never decided to move all of their f’n production to China and transfer over tech/ip.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on April 01, 2020, 06:24:43 PM
I'm just glad that we did our thing in Italy before things went totally haywire. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2020, 06:34:10 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 01, 2020, 06:19:40 PM
Doesn’t matter if they want to leave or not. It’s still cheaper for them to produce in China than it is in the US. Even with the tarrifs and wage increases. And these soulless, lifeless mega US multinationals care about nothing more than the bottom line period. The people running them have sold out their own country all in the name of the almighty dollar.

And even if they leave, doesn’t matter. Those f’n MORONS actually WILLINGLY handed over tech and ip to the CCP in order to operate in China. They sold out their own future and their own people in order to make a quick buck today. China would be a poor 3rd rate backwater still if US/European multinationals never decided to move all of their f’n production to China and transfer over tech/ip.
I don't disagree with the general sentiment that we need to move manufacturing out of China, but it's not a question of corporate greed, but rather an issue of corporate survival--  and it's the American consumer that's to blame.

Do you think American consumers will buy Dell or HP computers that cost 30% more than their Lenovo counterparts?  Do you think they'll buy the $500 Dell laptop, or the identically-spec'd $350 Lenovo one?

You don't have to answer that one, we've already tested the hypothesis and verified the conclusion in real life.  American consumers only "buy American" if it's priced the same.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 01, 2020, 06:35:03 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2020, 05:51:49 PM
I think "we" could bring China to its knees economically, as was in progress until this virus was unleashed upon us.

I don't believe for a minute that this thing wasn't spread intentionally, starting in Italy - one of the most traveled-to countries in the World.

Of course, I don't trust China, I've never trusted China, and I never will trust China. Hence, my potential bias.
CCP delayed to act and tried just covering it up at first. If the CCP had taken action 3 weeks earlier than they did- instead of trying to cover it up and DISAPPEAR whistleblowers- when they already KNEW there was a problem- this thing would’ve been contained to China and the number cases China “reported” would’ve been reduced by 95%. 

They 100% are lying about the numbers of infected and dead. It’s way more than they are letting on. And it spread like wildfire in Italy because there are a ton of Chinese nationals in the Milan area and a ton of Italian businesses that are owned by Chinese companies. My guess is the spread has more to do with that than any kind of conspiracy. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2020, 06:38:36 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on April 01, 2020, 06:24:43 PM
I'm just glad that we did our thing in Italy before things went totally haywire.

Tourism will be back, no worries.  I love Italy and will most definitely return someday.  Sooner than later I hope.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2020, 06:39:47 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 01, 2020, 06:35:03 PM
CCP delayed to act and tried just covering it up at first. If the CCP had taken action 3 weeks earlier than they did- instead of trying to cover it up and DISAPPEAR whistleblowers- when they already KNEW there was a problem- this thing would’ve been contained to China and the number cases China “reported” would’ve been reduced by 95%.

They 100% are lying about the numbers of infected and dead. It’s way more than they are letting on. And it spread like wildfire in Italy because there are a ton of Chinese nationals in the Milan area and a ton of Italian businesses that are owned by Chinese companies. My guess is the spread has more to do with that than any kind of conspiracy.
Something like 300,000 Chinese workers in the Italian textile industries in/near Milan.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2020, 06:43:39 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 01, 2020, 06:13:15 PM
From what I understand, companies are already trying to leave China. And not because of the current administration's trade policies [although that had an effect].

China is barely even considered a low cost country [LCC] any more... Now they're too close to the first world to be cheap.
It's still significantly cheaper for many/most American tech companies, but that's largely because the Chinese government will subsidize Chinese corporations to work at a loss in order to maintain their stranglehold on the production.  It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy then, and it doesn't help that they buy up our debt and then finance the subsidies with our very own interest payments.

Like I said, this is a war they've been intentionally fighting for decades, whilst the average American has no idea such a war is even possible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 01, 2020, 06:44:41 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2020, 05:59:17 PM
If their weapons work like their test kits and masks... no worries.


So long as nobody sold our weapons technology to them, of course. Which is a big IF.


Anyway, even still. Yeah, they have a big army. They don't have the naval means to get that army here. Not even close.



I wonder what Stormin' Norman would do.
Chances are good they possess the ability to reach us with WMDs. 

Would they incinerate a few west coast cities? Considering how they treat their own folks, not a bad chance of it. 

Also, never get into a land war in Asia. We couldn't avoid long, bloody stalemates in countries far smaller. Now there's a chance that hierarchy is rickey enough it would come apart, but the cost of being wrong would be extremely high. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 01, 2020, 06:48:11 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 01, 2020, 06:04:40 PM
It's not a military war.

It's an economic war.  And we've been in it for more than a couple of decades.

Status Report?  They're beating the crap out of us, right now-- and that's largely because a majority in our country don't even realize we're in a war.

But I think this is opening some eyes.  It'll start with revamping our emergency supply chain.  Medications, medical equipment, sensitive technical equipment, etc. We'll have no choice but to push that to more domestic production.

And then as the enemy fights back against us on THOSE fronts, more people will begin to understand the nature, and the extent, of this war.

Just imagine investing all of that capital into Mexico and Latin America, rather than overseas.  Not only would it cripple the enemy, but it could significantly enhance the quality of life to our neighbors to the south, diminishing their suffering which would ultimately help them become independent and less likely to overwhelm our own national resources.  That part won't be easy at all of course.  But it has to start somewhere.




... it's weird to see it as a war to me. It just seems like free markets working at their most lubricated. Cheap khaki pants at Walmart won out. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2020, 06:50:05 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 01, 2020, 06:44:41 PM
Chances are good they possess the ability to reach us with WMDs.

Would they incinerate a few west coast cities? Considering how they treat their own folks, not a bad chance of it.

Also, never get into a land war in Asia. We couldn't avoid long, bloody stalemates in countries far smaller. Now there's a chance that hierarchy is rickey enough it would come apart, but the cost of being wrong would be extremely high.
Good is not a promise.

As I said, if their weapons work like most of the shit they sell to the world, we have no issues. Their garbage will be in the ocean (well, it is already, in the plastic form) before it gets half way to Hawaii.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2020, 06:51:16 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 01, 2020, 06:48:11 PM
... it's weird to see it as a war to me. It just seems like free markets working at their most lubricated. Cheap khaki pants at Walmart won out.
Damn Harbaugh has to get brought up in this?


Every thread turns into a Michigan thread here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 01, 2020, 06:54:00 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 01, 2020, 06:34:10 PM
I don't disagree with the general sentiment that we need to move manufacturing out of China, but it's not a question of corporate greed, but rather an issue of corporate survival--  and it's the American consumer that's to blame.

Do you think American consumers will buy Dell or HP computers that cost 30% more than their Lenovo counterparts?  Do you think they'll buy the $500 Dell laptop, or the identically-spec'd $350 Lenovo one?

You don't have to answer that one, we've already tested the hypothesis and verified the conclusion in real life.  American consumers only "buy American" if it's priced the same.
You’re kind of proving my point for me brother. Lenovo was NOT a serious player at all in the US or European PC market AT ALL until it was gifted tech/name brand recognition by a stupid American company. Lenovo was a piss ant that bought IBM’s PC business and that IMMEDIATELY put them on the map. 

Chinese companies never made viable pc computers before then. Chinese companies really didn’t make anything of value. China was a poor backwater shithole before American multinationals started moving in beginning in the 80s. The Chinese didn’t have the technology to make jackshit. It was GREED from soulless lifeless American corporations that set up shop in China to exploit cheap labor and not have an EPA to deal with in order to make more and more money. And in order to gain access these dumbass US multinationals WILLINGLY gave up their trade secrets/tech/ip to China. 

Apple very easily could’ve made their products here, charged the same amount of money for them, people still would’ve bought them by the shitloads and maybe they’d have accumulated $80 billion or $100 billion in cash instead of the TWO HUNDRED AND SEVENTY billion in CASH they had at one point. That’s nothing but greed. They produce there for one reason and one reasons only- it’s cheaper and they make more money by producing there. 

Apple has spent about $175 billion on stock buybacks. Imagine if they had spent that money investing in American factories and jobs. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 01, 2020, 06:55:29 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 01, 2020, 06:19:40 PM
Doesn’t matter if they want to leave or not. It’s still cheaper for them to produce in China than it is in the US. Even with the tarrifs and wage increases. And these soulless, lifeless mega US multinationals care about nothing more than the bottom line period. The people running them have sold out their own country all in the name of the almighty dollar.
And my point is that when those jobs move out of China, they're not moving to the US. They're moving to other LCCs. 

A lot of the remaining LCCs are Southeast Asia. We haven't yet tried to exploit Africa yet... But wait. 

And as @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) points out, as long as we make pricing decisions based on $, that's what corporations are going to do. 

We've gotten to the point, comparison shopping, that even our "premium" airlines like American, United, Delta, etc are charging to actually select a seat. Because once you have the internet and can look at prices head-to-head, typical travelers will sit outside the airplane on the wing if it saves $3. (Of course, then they'll bitch about the wind noise--because 'Murica.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 01, 2020, 06:57:42 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 01, 2020, 06:35:03 PM
CCP delayed to act and tried just covering it up at first. If the CCP had taken action 3 weeks earlier than they did- instead of trying to cover it up and DISAPPEAR whistleblowers- when they already KNEW there was a problem- this thing would’ve been contained to China and the number cases China “reported” would’ve been reduced by 95%.

They 100% are lying about the numbers of infected and dead. It’s way more than they are letting on. And it spread like wildfire in Italy because there are a ton of Chinese nationals in the Milan area and a ton of Italian businesses that are owned by Chinese companies. My guess is the spread has more to do with that than any kind of conspiracy.
Maybe the spread has the most to do with the fact that this thing spreads like freakin' crazy. 

Even in Italy, where they've instituted lockdowns for basically 3 weeks, all they can do is get the spread to go from exponential growth to linear growth. 

Sure, the CCP tried to hide this. But I don't think they had any chance of stopping it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 01, 2020, 07:01:21 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 01, 2020, 06:54:00 PM
Apple very easily could’ve made their products here, charged the same amount of money for them, people still would’ve bought them by the shitloads and maybe they’d have accumulated $80 billion or $100 billion in cash instead of the TWO HUNDRED AND SEVENTY billion in CASH they had at one point. That’s nothing but greed. They produce there for one reason and one reasons only- it’s cheaper and they make more money by producing there.

Apple has spent about $175 billion on stock buybacks. Imagine if they had spent that money investing in American factories and jobs.
Apple is a strange case. Nobody in any industry they operate in can get the sort of sale prices or gross margins they get. It more closely approximates a cult than anything else to the extent that people will overpay for Apple products compared to other products with similar specifications.

It's like they're a combination of a technology company but with the "brand cachet" of someone like Gucci or Louis Vuitton. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 01, 2020, 07:02:23 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 01, 2020, 06:48:11 PM
... it's weird to see it as a war to me. It just seems like free markets working at their most lubricated. Cheap khaki pants at Walmart won out. 

That is not free markets lol. Free market doesn’t exist here and it sure as hell doesn’t exist in China. 

Khaki pants being made in China is not a big deal. If that’s as far as production moving to China ever went, then China would be nothing more than a bigger, more successful Vietnam.

It’s the high-tech/medical equipment/pharmaceuticals/chemicals/vehicles/battery tech/solar - all the IMPORTANT shit you know- that’s ALL based on AMERICAN TECH/IP that’s the problem. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 01, 2020, 07:05:27 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2020, 06:50:05 PM
Good is not a promise.

As I said, if their weapons work like most of the shit they sell to the world, we have no issues. Their garbage will be in the ocean (well, it is already, in the plastic form) before it gets half way to Hawaii.
The lives of millions bet on confidently underestimating the enemy. 

We've done the latter part before. It often doesn't end well. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 01, 2020, 07:06:00 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2020, 06:51:16 PM
Damn Harbaugh has to get brought up in this?


Every thread turns into a Michigan thread here.
I thought about picking something else, but it was just too delicious. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 01, 2020, 07:07:47 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 01, 2020, 07:02:23 PM
That is not free markets lol. Free market doesn’t exist here and it sure as hell doesn’t exist in China.

Khaki pants being made in China is not a big deal. If that’s as far as production moving to China ever went, then China would be nothing more than a bigger, more successful Vietnam.

It’s the high-tech/medical equipment/pharmaceuticals/chemicals/vehicles/battery tech/solar - all the IMPORTANT shit you know- that’s ALL based on AMERICAN TECH/IP that’s the problem.
We allowed our companies to cheaply make shit in china. We as people bought tons and tons of it. That's the market part. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2020, 07:10:36 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 01, 2020, 06:57:42 PM
Maybe the spread has the most to do with the fact that this thing spreads like freakin' crazy.

Even in Italy, where they've instituted lockdowns for basically 3 weeks, all they can do is get the spread to go from exponential growth to linear growth.

Sure, the CCP tried to hide this. But I don't think they had any chance of stopping it.
Or, maybe it had something to do with the CCP covering it up, and sending its "insignificant" lambs out into the world, starting in Italy.


Bring down the US economy? Short-term success.

Collude with Russia to convince them to cut oil by increasing production, thereby hurting the US producers? Short-term success.


The war starts now, and it starts with bringing China down - Economically or otherwise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2020, 07:11:26 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 01, 2020, 06:54:00 PM
You’re kind of proving my point for me brother. Lenovo was NOT a serious player at all in the US or European PC market AT ALL until it was gifted tech/name brand recognition by a stupid American company. Lenovo was a piss ant that bought IBM’s PC business and that IMMEDIATELY put them on the map.

Chinese companies never made viable pc computers before then. Chinese companies really didn’t make anything of value. China was a poor backwater shithole before American multinationals started moving in beginning in the 80s. The Chinese didn’t have the technology to make jackshit. It was GREED from soulless lifeless American corporations that set up shop in China to exploit cheap labor and not have an EPA to deal with in order to make more and more money. And in order to gain access these dumbass US multinationals WILLINGLY gave up their trade secrets/tech/ip to China.

Apple very easily could’ve made their products here, charged the same amount of money for them, people still would’ve bought them by the shitloads and maybe they’d have accumulated $80 billion or $100 billion in cash instead of the TWO HUNDRED AND SEVENTY billion in CASH they had at one point. That’s nothing but greed. They produce there for one reason and one reasons only- it’s cheaper and they make more money by producing there.

Apple has spent about $175 billion on stock buybacks. Imagine if they had spent that money investing in American factories and jobs.

Yes, Lenovo bought IBM's PC business.  That immediately brought them into the same IP range as their competitors.  Once they did that, manufacturing at lower prices than their American competitors was easy to do, especially with subsidies from the Chinese government-- subsidies that they derive from interest money that WE are paying them for owning our debt.

You really don't want to argue the basics of this stuff with me.  Overall I'm agreeing with you, but I can assure you I know the details better than you do.   I've stood up manufacturing lines at Chinese ODMs for American company's products.  I've worked directly with Chinese employees both of my own company, and our ODM vendors, throughout the process.  I know the business.  I know what I'm talking about.

Apple is an outlier and not really part of the overall discussion.  I agree that they could manufacture entirely in the USA and still be alright-- and indeed they've already moved some significant portions of their manufacturing into the USA, with more planned.  Austin is a major hub for that activity.

But computers, displays, most other consumer electronics-- that'a a different story.

Again, American consumers aren't willing to pay more for American goods.  I've literally, directly, performed this exact experiment.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2020, 07:11:51 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 01, 2020, 07:05:27 PM
The lives of millions bet on confidently underestimating the enemy.

We've done the latter part before. It often doesn't end well.
This is different.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 01, 2020, 07:12:36 PM
Highly doubt the CCP would use nukes. First of all their arsenal isn’t that big. They are thought to have 250-300 nuclear warheads. The US has what- like 7,000? The US is still to this day the only country that has ever used nuclear weapons in war. Does China really want to risk getting wiped out with nukes? I don’t think so. We’ve got a shitload more of them than they do. 

America might be a broken country that has morphed into an oligarchy and a society that doesn’t give a shit about one another anymore- but were still pretty damn good at war.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2020, 07:16:01 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 01, 2020, 06:48:11 PM
... it's weird to see it as a war to me. It just seems like free markets working at their most lubricated. Cheap khaki pants at Walmart won out.

But the Free Markets aren't working.  You CAN'T have free market competition with China, they're not a capitalist country.  The government is so intertwined with the corporations that the government IS the corporations.  Their nationalized banking industry is taking our money from us, funneling it to subsidize their nationalized manufacturing sector, and beating us over the head with it.  

This is NOT the free market at work, at all.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2020, 07:17:09 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 01, 2020, 07:12:36 PM
Highly doubt the CCP would use nukes. First of all their arsenal isn’t that big. They are thought to have 250-300 nuclear warheads. The US has what- like 7,000? The US is still to this day the only country that has ever used nuclear weapons in war. Does China really want to risk getting wiped out with nukes? I don’t think so. We’ve got a shitload more of them than they do.

America might be a broken country that has morphed into an oligarchy and a society that doesn’t give a shit about one another anymore- but were still pretty damn good at war.
To the "elite", perhaps.

The CCP would Nuke their own, rather than go down to us. They just proved this, with this "virus".
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2020, 07:19:52 PM
They don't want us dead.  They want us consuming their goods.

This isn't a military war and never will be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 01, 2020, 07:20:24 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2020, 07:11:51 PM
This is different.
"It's different this time" is possibly the scariest phrase in human history.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 01, 2020, 07:22:26 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 01, 2020, 05:25:20 PM
My, times have changed...

A hundred years ago, the global pandemic came after the world war.

If you guys get your way, the global pandemic will come after and cause the world war this time.

:smiley_confused1:
It'll be a pillow fight,Everbody will be too weak and have to stop and get their breath - except evidently you,CD and maybe 94,Fearless and I will be testing our new schooners
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 01, 2020, 07:25:15 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 01, 2020, 07:19:52 PM
They don't want us dead.  They want us consuming their goods.

This isn't a military war and never will be.
They don’t just want us consuming their goods. They want to end global American hegemony. They want to knock the US off the mountain top of the world stage. They want the entire world consuming their goods and they want influence and power over the entire world. 

We have to end them. Period. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 01, 2020, 07:26:34 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 01, 2020, 07:19:52 PM
They don't want us dead.  They want us consuming their goods.

This isn't a military war and never will be.
You're prolly too young to remember F-Troop - O'Roarke and Agarn - classic.Indians and the cavalry - well they're really not all that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 01, 2020, 07:27:58 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 01, 2020, 07:25:15 PM
 They want to knock the US off the mountain top of the world stage. 
Hell we'll do that ourselves
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2020, 07:29:33 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 01, 2020, 07:22:26 PM
It'll be a pillow fight,Everbody will be too weak and have to stop and get their breath - except evidently you,CD and maybe 94,Fearless and I will be testing our new schooners
Mmmmmmm schooners.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 01, 2020, 07:30:38 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 01, 2020, 07:20:24 PM
"It's different this time" is possibly the scariest phrase in human history.
I dunno WW I and the Spanish flu just off the top of my head
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 01, 2020, 07:30:58 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 01, 2020, 07:27:58 PM
Hell we'll do that ourselves
True lol. We’ve been doing that ourselves consistently over the last 30 years. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2020, 07:36:36 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 01, 2020, 07:30:58 PM
True lol. We’ve been doing that ourselves consistently over the last 30 years.
Snowflakes, move aside and resume your positions in your safe spaces.

We got this. 

Hopefully you'll appreciate it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 01, 2020, 07:38:21 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 01, 2020, 07:30:38 PM
I dunno WW I and the Spanish flu just off the top of my head
I was thinking of the dot com boom of the late 90s and the mortgage boom of the mid-2000s as options... Financial bubbles are often propped up by people who claim "it's different this time" and have plausible-sounding rationale for why it's actually different this time... 

The human capability for self-deception is something to behold...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 01, 2020, 07:47:48 PM
Looking at the numbers across the globe...

Italy appears to have achieved linearity WRT both daily new cases and deaths. However, it's questionable whether any of these are decreasing, although Mar 29-31 are showing lower new case rates than previous [not yet reflected in death rates but I expect a lag there].

Spain showing linearity in daily new cases and deaths. Also no indication of decrease in either, just linear rather than exponential growth.

South Korea (one of the "best" responses, or so is believed) showing very low relative new case numbers compared to peak new infection rates. Deaths are not worth tracking because the sample size is SO low that the difference between 3 daily deaths and 10 looks HUGE on a bar graph but if the day after is 4, it doesn't mean much.

Norway and Sweden are an interesting case. Norway is following the lockdown/social distancing protocols. Sweden announced they're not going to do that. So it's a good comparison. Norway has linearity on new infections, and so far death rates are too minimal to draw any trends. Sweden doesn't show a HUGE exponential trend on new infections, but it's definitely non-linear. Death rates in Sweden look exponential, though. So both countries might be interesting to watch to see how different policies are affecting the results.

As for the US? With still some reporting to go today, we've hit new records for daily new infections and daily deaths. So we're not approaching linearity yet, nor "flattening the curve" which would require seeing some decreases in daily case rates.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2020, 07:58:23 PM
The "daily new cases" data is pretty irrelevant,at least here in the USA.

I believe we're currently just barely dipping our toe into testing into a much, much larger population of already existing infections.  So basically, all an increasing rate on "confirmed cases" tells us, is that our testing is increasing overall.  The exponential growth we're seeing is nothing more than an artifact of increasing testing rates around the country, as more and more testing facilities come online and tests are more widely available around the country.

Note, that doesn't mean I don't think the growth rate of infection of the virus itself isn't exponential, I just don't believe our testing has any way of determining that.  And it likely never will, in this country, for this particular virus.

So for me, the only real statistic worth tracking, is death rate.  When that begins flattening out, we'll know we're getting somewhere.  The rate of increase (or even decrease) of "confirmed cases" is meaningless if it doesn't correlate to the deltas in the death rate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 01, 2020, 08:05:21 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 01, 2020, 07:58:23 PM
The "daily new cases" data is pretty irrelevant,at least here in the USA.

I believe we're currently testing into a much, much larger population of already existing infections.  Basically all an increasing rate on "confirmed cases" tells us, is that our testing is increasing overall.  The exponential growth we're seeing is an artifact of increasing testing rates around the country, as more and more testing facilities come online and tests are more widely available around the country.

So for me, the only real statistic worth tracking, is death rate.  When that begins flattening out, we'll know we're getting somewhere.  The rate of increase (or even decrease) of "confirmed cases" is meaningless if it doesn't correlate to the deltas in the death rate.

Agreed. And one aspect of the modulation of the case rate, where we go from strongly exponential to much more weakly exponential, appears to be limits in NY. They've been only testing ~20K cases per day over the last week+, which suggests that their case rate can't go strongly exponential if their test capability isn't ramping exponentially. I think a lot of the exponential areas are other parts of the country where they're ramping testing rates.

Death rates are somewhat noisy when the numbers are small, but I think we've moved well beyond that. So I agree that it's more important now to be looking at death rates rather than confirmed cases. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 01, 2020, 08:27:22 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 01, 2020, 07:12:36 PM
Highly doubt the CCP would use nukes. First of all their arsenal isn’t that big. They are thought to have 250-300 nuclear warheads. The US has what- like 7,000? The US is still to this day the only country that has ever used nuclear weapons in war. Does China really want to risk getting wiped out with nukes? I don’t think so. We’ve got a shitload more of them than they do.

A desperate authoritarian backed into a corner? They might not care. 

And even if we have more, that still implies being willing to risk the potential of millions of people incinerated. And we won't if not provoked by something somewhat real. And this mostly ain't it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 01, 2020, 08:30:05 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 01, 2020, 08:27:22 PM
A desperate authoritarian backed into a corner? They might not care.
Wait, are we still talking about China?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 01, 2020, 08:31:03 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2020, 07:11:51 PM
This is different.
In what sense would it be different?

I'm just saying, anything that starts with, that military is more backward and toppling them on their turf will be easy sound like textbook overconfidence. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2020, 08:31:58 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 01, 2020, 08:05:21 PM
Agreed. And one aspect of the modulation of the case rate, where we go from strongly exponential to much more weakly exponential, appears to be limits in NY. They've been only testing ~20K cases per day over the last week+, which suggests that their case rate can't go strongly exponential if their test capability isn't ramping exponentially. I think a lot of the exponential areas are other parts of the country where they're ramping testing rates.

Death rates are somewhat noisy when the numbers are small, but I think we've moved well beyond that. So I agree that it's more important now to be looking at death rates rather than confirmed cases.
For sure, the noise in the system is diminishing, and the real data is beginning to roll in.

I'll just add a blanket "Unfortunately" to all of this because while I discuss the analytics dispassionately, I understand the deaths are all real people and loved ones.  Some of us are going to lose someone we know, probably well, and it's really possible we'll lose loved ones.  That all sucks really really badly.

And I suspect that, sooner rather than later, we as a nation are going to have to make a decision that might further jeopardize those loves ones in the most at-risk groups.  But realistically, this nation isn't built for prolonged periods of inactivity.  It's going to get wild, and dangerous, if we don't relieve the pressure, likely sooner than we'd prefer.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 01, 2020, 08:40:48 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 01, 2020, 08:31:58 PM
For sure, the noise in the system is diminishing, and the real data is beginning to roll in.

I'll just add a blanket "Unfortunately" to all of this because while I discuss the analytics dispassionately, I understand the deaths are all real people and loved ones.  Some of us are going to lose someone we know, probably well, and it's really possible we'll lose loved ones.  That all sucks really really badly.

And I suspect that, sooner rather than later, we as a nation are going to have to make a decision that might further jeopardize those loves ones in the most at-risk groups.  But realistically, this nation isn't built for prolonged periods of inactivity.  It's going to get wild, and dangerous, if we don't relieve the pressure, likely sooner than we'd prefer.



I can't recall if it was on here, but someone suggested the big test is gonna be when we can start testing people to see if they have antibodies (assuming you can't catch it twice). Once we start getting people on the other side, perhaps they can start getting after it. 

It would also be nice so we can find the truth of folks saying "I felt bad in December, must've been it."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 01, 2020, 08:46:14 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 01, 2020, 08:31:58 PM
For sure, the noise in the system is diminishing, and the real data is beginning to roll in.

I'll just add a blanket "Unfortunately" to all of this because while I discuss the analytics dispassionately, I understand the deaths are all real people and loved ones.  Some of us are going to lose someone we know, probably well, and it's really possible we'll lose loved ones.  That all sucks really really badly.

And I suspect that, sooner rather than later, we as a nation are going to have to make a decision that might further jeopardize those loves ones in the most at-risk groups.  But realistically, this nation isn't built for prolonged periods of inactivity.  It's going to get wild, and dangerous, if we don't relieve the pressure, likely sooner than we'd prefer.
Yeah... I'm a data geek, so this is a fascinating thing to analyze. 

But... Yeah. If either of my parents got it, their prognosis would be dire. If my father-in-law got it, I don't know how comorbid Szogren's Syndrome is, but I don't want to find out. 

When I got the kids last Friday I found out they were strolling around Balboa Island with their grandparents... When I sent them back this morning I had to tell their mom "uhh, don't freakin' do that..." I'm actually less worried about the kids, or even them bringing something to my wife and I. We're in age/health cohorts that aren't at high risk. But I can't imagine my son--who idolizes my ex's dad--having to wonder if he passes whether he infected his grandpa.

I don't see this slowing down anytime soon...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 01, 2020, 08:51:26 PM
Since we're talking data, I'm interested in presentation. 

I'm looking at a chart of daily deaths. It jumped from 588 to 912 to 1,094 the past three days. This doesn't necessarily mean anything other than us knowing more. It wouldn't make sense to hold back on that data, but it obviously induces certain feelings presented that way (it's bad, but there's a range of how bad). 

I wonder if there's a more context-ed way to present it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 01, 2020, 09:15:23 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 01, 2020, 07:38:21 PM
I was thinking of the dot com boom of the late 90s and the mortgage boom of the mid-2000s as options... Financial bubbles are often propped up by people who claim "it's different this time" and have plausible-sounding rationale for why it's actually different this time...

The human capability for self-deception is something to behold...
Misread it as phase - bit of a difference
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 01, 2020, 09:18:41 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 01, 2020, 07:47:48 PM
Looking at the numbers across the globe...

Norway and Sweden are an interesting case. So both countries might be interesting to watch to see how different policies are affecting the results.

Who ever has the most Lutefisk will prevail or pickled herring
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 01, 2020, 09:22:45 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 01, 2020, 08:27:22 PM
A desperate authoritarian backed into a corner? They might not care.
So,New Yorkers
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on April 02, 2020, 12:03:01 AM
No British Open
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 02, 2020, 07:39:43 AM
I'll admit it is a tad bit morbid w/o sports but the not having pools/squares or even a side bet to spice events up is a grind.As long as it's a healthy grind
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 02, 2020, 08:40:43 AM
Quote from: ELA on April 02, 2020, 12:03:01 AM
No British Open
They canceled the tennis too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 02, 2020, 09:02:18 AM
IF this thing peaks in mid-April (which obviously is a ????), the current trend is terrible.  The US had 1,000 yesterday, if that doubles each day to the 15th and then does the reverse going down, we'd have 2,000 on the 3rd and so on.  We hit 1.6 million on the 15th.

Hopefully it doesn't get anywhere remotely near that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 02, 2020, 09:09:43 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 02, 2020, 09:02:18 AM
IF this thing peaks in mid-April (which obviously is a ????), the current trend is terrible.  The US had 1,000 yesterday, if that doubles each day to the 15th and then does the reverse going down, we'd have 2,000 on the 3rd and so on.  We hit 1.6 million on the 15th.

Hopefully it doesn't get anywhere remotely near that.

I don't think it's currently doubling every day, is it?  Doubling rate is still between 2-3 days last I looked.  I mean, it's still bad, but not quite as bad.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 02, 2020, 09:12:54 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 02, 2020, 09:09:43 AM
I don't think it's currently doubling every day, is it?  Doubling rate is still between 2-3 days last I looked.  I mean, it's still bad, but not quite as bad.


Correct.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 02, 2020, 09:16:58 AM
Also, we're now on day 21 since a large part of the country began serious social distancing efforts, large gatherings were canceled and then prohibited, etc.  As a nation, we haven't been perfect by any means, but there's also no doubt that a very large amount of contact has been eliminated.

So IF our efforts are going to have any effect on the spread of the virus, we should start seeing those death rates bending down in the next 1-7 days, since the infection---> death timing seems to be around 3-4 weeks. 

If we don't see a large bend downward over the next week, well, it means our efforts aren't helping.  And THAT means, there's no point in continuing them.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 02, 2020, 09:27:38 AM
I don't know about that UTee. I think we have only started to see the beginning of the spring break stupidity. Hell, as of LAST WEEKEND there were still some crowded beaches in Florida.

https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1243990179557359616
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 02, 2020, 09:28:21 AM
For the record, Duval County is Jacksonville. St. John's is just South.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 02, 2020, 09:42:41 AM
Florida is likely to be a shitshow.  New York already is.

The nation as a whole, is doing better than the hot spots.

Take a look at California-- data seems pretty good there, compared to the population and population density.  I'd expect worse, and so far it's not happening.  That's a great sign.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 02, 2020, 09:44:54 AM
I'll say this again-- I think the parts of the country that have been buckled down since mid-March, are only going to be able to continue to the end of April at the longest.  Then, things are going to get ugly.  There are already millions out of work.  Hundreds of thousands starting to starve.

The risk utility function is going to look very, very different if/when those people become violent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 02, 2020, 09:47:21 AM
I read "somewhere" it may start doubling every day, not that it has already.  Let's presume it increases by 1.3x each day, that puts us at 160,000 total by April 15, and a like amount "on the way down".  At 1.2x, we hit 76,000 total by mid April.

So, that increase per day factor merits attention.

https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/04/01/white-house-coronavirus-death-models-scarpino (https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/04/01/white-house-coronavirus-death-models-scarpino)





Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 02, 2020, 09:49:25 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 02, 2020, 09:16:58 AM
If we don't see a large bend downward over the next week, well, it means our efforts aren't helping.  And THAT means, there's no point in continuing them.
I disagree with this CD left a great link a few pages back.There will be a leveling off and the precautions can play a big roll to start trimming this thing back.This is a classic case of patience is a virtue,throwing caution to the wind would be disasterous at this point
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 02, 2020, 09:52:52 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 02, 2020, 09:42:41 AM
Take a look at California-- data seems pretty good there, compared to the population and population density.  I'd expect worse, and so far it's not happening.  That's a great sign.
The Spicoli's are taking things serious - good on them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 02, 2020, 09:57:05 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 02, 2020, 09:44:54 AM
The risk utility function is going to look very, very different if/when those people become violent.
Could get there and hope/pray not
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 02, 2020, 10:00:05 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 02, 2020, 09:49:25 AM
I disagree with this CD left a great link a few pages back.There will be a leveling off and the precautions can play a big roll to start trimming this thing back.This is a classic case of patience is a virtue,throwing caution to the wind would be disasterous at this point
We've got to flatten.  If we're doing all of this distancing, and don't see the flattening, it means we're doing the wrong thing.

Also, I'm getting really annoyed with folks saying things like, "we can't end the quarantines and risk the virus spreading just for the sake of the economy."

Because, "The Economy" isn't a thing.  It's the millions that are out of work that are a thing.  It's the hundreds of thousands that are in danger of starving, that are a thing.

I don't give one flying shit about "The Economy." I do care about the people in danger of starving, and the violence that could result from that.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 02, 2020, 10:03:44 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 02, 2020, 09:47:21 AM
I read "somewhere" it may start doubling every day, not that it has already.  Let's presume it increases by 1.3x each day, that puts us at 160,000 total by April 15, and a like amount "on the way down".  At 1.2x, we hit 76,000 total by mid April.

So, that increase per day factor merits attention.

https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/04/01/white-house-coronavirus-death-models-scarpino (https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/04/01/white-house-coronavirus-death-models-scarpino)







It's not even close to doubling every day here in the USA, and I'm pretty sure neither Italy nor Spain nor any other country has ever reported daily doubling in deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 02, 2020, 10:04:42 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 02, 2020, 10:00:05 AM
We've got to flatten.  If we're doing all of this distancing, and don't see the flattening, it means we're doing the wrong thing.

Also, I'm getting really annoyed with folks saying things like, "we can't end the quarantines and risk the virus spreading just for the sake of the economy."

Because, "The Economy" isn't a thing.  It's the millions that are out of work that are a thing.  It's the hundreds of thousands that are in danger of starving, that are a thing.

I don't give one flying shit about "The Economy." I do care about the people in danger of starving, and the violence that could result from that. 
I assume the worry is that if it spikes and hospitals are overwhelmed, you see an economic crash anyway. Maybe not this severe, but if people see images of older folks turned away at hospitals, they'll stay home (ideally). 

There's also gonna be a follow up medical crisis because older folks with chronic issues are probably putting off some things for fear of doctors offices. 

The many externalities are just bad, bad, bad
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 02, 2020, 10:07:57 AM
what is the actual fatality rate? I believe they are saying it’s under 2% in the US. 

But how many millions of people have been exposed to this thing and had little to no symptoms and never got tested. There was a study done by a European country I think it was Sweden or something that suggests that nearly 50% of the people who contract this virus don’t even get sick. 

All I know is, I was sicker than a dog for almost two weeks in the middle of January. Never in my life got that sick from a regular flu. I think it’s possible that I may have already had this thing already and got better. I can guarantee you this thing was circulating in the US well before March. 

So far there have been 5,000 deaths in the US. This is a country close to 350 million people if you’re including illegals. We can’t shut down the entire country and risk going into a depression over a disease that quiet honestly just isn’t that deadly. If it was a disease like Ebola that had a fatality rate of 60% or something insane like that- sure- shut the shit down. 

I think a lot of this hysteria is driven by the media and by people that want to take down Trump. This virus is terrible don’t get me wrong, any amount of people dying is just sad, but I honestly don’t believe it’s as bad as “they” say it is. Millions and millions of people aren’t going to die from this. And millions and millions wouldn’t have died even if they didn’t lock everything down.

China still needs to be dealt with over this however just purely based on the economic damage that this thing is doing and also because of the potential that something a lot worse could come out of those disgusting wildlife wet markets. I don’t get how the CCP didn’t permanently shut down the wet markets after the SARS outbreak in 2003-2004. The damn CCP let them open right back up. Freaking morons. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 02, 2020, 10:12:39 AM
California's data isn't very good: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/california#history (https://covidtracking.com/data/state/california#history)

The state only appears to have tested 30,000 people. They only appear to be clearing through ~2-3000 tests per day. They keep reporting ~64K "pending" tests and we don't really know what the heck that means. 

I say "appear" because it's unclear if they're actually reporting actual number of negative tests correctly, so we don't know if their total number of tests are accurate. 

However, based on the hard numbers, they show (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/) 215 deaths and 9936 confirmed cases, a case fatality rate of about 2.15%. New York's case fatality rate currently sits at 2.64%. 

So unless California is mis-counting deaths for some reason, maybe they're doing a good job? 

Or maybe it's about to explode.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 02, 2020, 10:14:33 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 02, 2020, 10:07:57 AM
what is the actual fatality rate? I believe they are saying it’s under 2% in the US.

But how many millions of people have been exposed to this thing and had little to no symptoms and never got tested. There was a study done by a European country I think it was Sweden or something that suggests that nearly 50% of the people who contract this virus don’t even get sick.

All I know is, I was sicker than a dog for almost two weeks in the middle of January. Never in my life got that sick from a regular flu. I think it’s possible that I may have already had this thing already and got better. I can guarantee you this thing was circulating in the US well before March.

So far there have been 5,000 deaths in the US. This is a country close to 350 million people if you’re including illegals. We can’t shut down the entire country and risk going into a depression over a disease that quiet honestly just isn’t that deadly. If it was a disease like Ebola that had a fatality rate of 60% or something insane like that- sure- shut the shit down.

I think a lot of this hysteria is driven by the media and by people that want to take down Trump. This virus is terrible don’t get me wrong, any amount of people dying is just sad, but I honestly don’t believe it’s as bad as “they” say it is. Millions and millions of people aren’t going to die from this. And millions and millions wouldn’t have died even if they didn’t lock everything down.

China still needs to be dealt with over this however just purely based on the economic damage that this thing is doing and also because of the potential that something a lot worse could come out of those disgusting wildlife wet markets. I don’t get how the CCP didn’t permanently shut down the wet markets after the SARS outbreak in 2003-2004. The damn CCP let them open right back up. Freaking morons.

They're already reopening in China at this very moment.

Actual fatality rate based on a model I've been running is around .6%.  When all is said and done I suspect it'll remain below 1%, but it's much more infectious than flu or SARS or any of the other things it's being compared to, so that still translates to a lot of deaths, depending on total population penetration%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 02, 2020, 10:15:34 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 02, 2020, 10:12:39 AM
California's data isn't very good: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/california#history (https://covidtracking.com/data/state/california#history)

The state only appears to have tested 30,000 people. They only appear to be clearing through ~2-3000 tests per day. They keep reporting ~64K "pending" tests and we don't really know what the heck that means.

I say "appear" because it's unclear if they're actually reporting actual number of negative tests correctly, so we don't know if their total number of tests are accurate.

However, based on the hard numbers, they show (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/) 215 deaths and 9936 confirmed cases, a case fatality rate of about 2.15%. New York's case fatality rate currently sits at 2.64%.

So unless California is mis-counting deaths for some reason, maybe they're doing a good job?

Or maybe it's about to explode.

Yeah, like I said last night, I'm only looking at deaths and death rates.  Looking at "cases" is completely useless, for all of the reasons you outline above.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 02, 2020, 10:19:20 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 02, 2020, 10:14:33 AM
They're already reopening in China at this very moment.

Actual fatality rate based on a model I've been running is around .6%.  When all is said and done I suspect it'll remain below 1%, but it's much more infectious than flu or SARS or any of the other things it's being compared to, so that still translates to a lot of deaths, depending on total population penetration%.
Are you serious? That is reason enough for the world to declare war on China imo. CCP needs to permanently shut down the wildlife wet markets or the militaries of the world should invade and do it for them. Those wildlife wet markets are a ticking time bomb of bio WMDs.

I think your model is probably right. Under 1% is probably what this thing is actually at.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on April 02, 2020, 10:19:29 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 02, 2020, 10:07:57 AM
what is the actual fatality rate? I believe they are saying it’s under 2% in the US.

But how many millions of people have been exposed to this thing and had little to no symptoms and never got tested. There was a study done by a European country I think it was Sweden or something that suggests that nearly 50% of the people who contract this virus don’t even get sick. 
I think you hit on the key issue here and unfortunately, there just isn't enough data (except maybe in S Korea) to answer this question.  

Early on they were talking ~5% fatality rate.  In our country of, as you said, 350M including everyone that is almost 20M people if everybody gets it.  

My understanding now is that the scary-high fatality rates they talked about early on were based on deaths/confirmed cases.  That, however, was highly flawed because the "confirmed cases" only counts people who actually got tested and tested positive.  With tests being limited to only the cases bad enough to be hospitalized that is a HIGHLY flawed figure because the denominator isn't "all cases", it is actually something more like "all cases bad enough to be hospitalized and tested".  

There is an ENORMOUS difference between:

My understanding is that the S Korean's are either already testing everyone or they are getting close to it.  That data could prove extremely informative.  If they test everyone then we should be able to get, from them, the total number of S Koreans that have had it.  Then you can divide S Korean fatalities by S Korean cases and get the ACTUAL fatality rate.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 02, 2020, 10:23:21 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 02, 2020, 10:07:57 AM
what is the actual fatality rate? I believe they are saying it’s under 2% in the US.

But how many millions of people have been exposed to this thing and had little to no symptoms and never got tested. There was a study done by a European country I think it was Sweden or something that suggests that nearly 50% of the people who contract this virus don’t even get sick.
It's a hard question to answer. Often we can only know the "case fatality rate", i.e. the rate of confirmed cases to the number of deaths. That's not the true mortality rate, because it doesn't include mild or asymptomatic cases. 

From everything I've been reading, actual mortality rate is closer to 1.2% according to best estimates. 

I've seen a lot of people trying to compare this to the flu or to H1N1. This thing appears to have far a higher true mortality rate than either, and may be more transmissible to boot. Bad combination...


Quote
I think a lot of this hysteria is driven by the media and by people that want to take down Trump. This virus is terrible don’t get me wrong, any amount of people dying is just sad, but I honestly don’t believe it’s as bad as “they” say it is. Millions and millions of people aren’t going to die from this. And millions and millions wouldn’t have died even if they didn’t lock everything down.
Italy went on lockdown long before anywhere in the US did so. Basically all of Europe has done the same. Are they shutting down their own economies just to take down Trump?

Plus, anyone trying to take down Trump should understand that one thing that tends to galvanize support around whatever leader is currently in the White House is a true crisis. Whether it's 9/11, or a war, or a pandemic. His approval numbers have improved, and even the rating of how he's handling COVID-19 is apparently a 60% approval. It's a psychological thing. He's POTUS, and openly rooting against him right now looks like you're rooting for him to fail in handling COVID-19, which means that you're rooting for the virus over him. 

Maybe the much simpler answer is that politicians all around the world listened to their health experts who said "get your head out of your rear and take action, becuase this sh!t is the real deal."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on April 02, 2020, 10:25:52 AM
There is also an actuarial question to consider on the fatality rate issue.  

First let me acknowledge that all deaths are sad, I'm not disputing that.  That said, if a 10 year old dies of COVID-19 that deprives them, actuarially, of of somewhere around 70 years of life.  If an 85 year old with extensive co-morbidity factors dies, that deprives them of ~1 year of life.  

Both are sad, but the 10 year old is a much bigger cost in terms of life lost because that cost ~70 years of life vs ~1 year.  

I don't know how this is actually working.  We keep being told that 60+ or 65+ are high risk.  Anecdotally, the 85 year old in my example above wasn't hypothetical.  He was a guy who I have known my entire life who would have turned 86 yesterday but he died on Sunday of COVID-19.  

His death is sad, no doubt.  That said, his death of COVID-19 probably deprived him of ~1 year of life given his age and co-morbidity factors.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on April 02, 2020, 10:32:29 AM
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on April 02, 2020, 10:25:52 AM
Anecdotally, the 85 year old in my example above wasn't hypothetical.  He was a guy who I have known my entire life who would have turned 86 yesterday but he died on Sunday of COVID-19. 
Just to tie this thread back to CFB and share this with the group:

The guy I know who died of COVID-19 was the Superintendent of my County's Career Center (JVS).  He retired many years ago.  I knew him because he was in a Service Club with me and before that because he knew my grandmother and parents.  

Here is my fondest memory of him:
My brother and I went to Tempe, Arizona for the NC game against Miami back in 2003 ('02 season).  We had no idea that Chuck and his wife Sue were also in Tempe.  As my brother and I were walking down the street a couple of blocks from Sun Devil Stadium I heard someone yell my name.  I turned and looked and it was Chuck.  That was ~17 years ago so he would have been ~68.  He and his wife were in Tempe for the game.  They were HUGE Ohio State fans and both were graduates of Ohio State.  Chuck and Sue were eating on the restaurant's outdoor patio and saw us so they yelled and came over and chatted with us for a few minutes.  Anyway, great guy and a very sad loss.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 02, 2020, 10:37:14 AM
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on April 02, 2020, 10:25:52 AM
There is also an actuarial question to consider on the fatality rate issue. 

First let me acknowledge that all deaths are sad, I'm not disputing that.  That said, if a 10 year old dies of COVID-19 that deprives them, actuarially, of of somewhere around 70 years of life.  If an 85 year old with extensive co-morbidity factors dies, that deprives them of ~1 year of life. 

Both are sad, but the 10 year old is a much bigger cost in terms of life lost because that cost ~70 years of life vs ~1 year. 

I don't know how this is actually working.  We keep being told that 60+ or 65+ are high risk.  Anecdotally, the 85 year old in my example above wasn't hypothetical.  He was a guy who I have known my entire life who would have turned 86 yesterday but he died on Sunday of COVID-19. 

His death is sad, no doubt.  That said, his death of COVID-19 probably deprived him of ~1 year of life given his age and co-morbidity factors. 

A report from Italy that I read a few days ago, suggested that a lot of the deaths from COVID19, would have ended in death by the end of the year anyway, based on their underlying conditions.

That's one of the factors that will need to be considered as well, if government leaders believe they want to extend the quarantines much further than they already have.

It's an ugly discussion for sure.  They're ALL ugly discussions at this point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 02, 2020, 10:40:02 AM
this is a piece on the wet markets in China from 60 Minutes Australia....don’t watch if you’ve got a weak stomach...

https://youtu.be/Y7nZ4mw4mXw
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 02, 2020, 10:41:56 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 02, 2020, 10:14:33 AM
They're already reopening in China at this very moment.
Yeah, but apparently their version of "reopening" is more stringent than our version of "lockdown"...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-revs-its-engine-to-move-past-coronavirus-but-its-stuck-in-second-gear/2020/03/31/13c81b20-7230-11ea-ad9b-254ec99993bc_story.html

Quote
People are allowed out of their residential complexes only if they have a return-to-work pass issued by their employer, and only if the government-issued health code on their cellphone glows green — not orange or red — to show that they are healthy and cleared for travel. Residents report that some complexes deemed infection-free have quietly lost that status, without explanation.

In the malls that opened this week, people must stand five feet apart on escalators, and clothes that customers have tried on must be sprayed with disinfectant. Subway passengers must wear masks and sit two seats apart; footage on state media showed near-deserted cars and stations.
China's doing a lot wrong here, but I think it's not clear to say they're "reopening" in the sense it would mean to most of us. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 02, 2020, 10:43:21 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 02, 2020, 10:41:56 AM
Yeah, but apparently their version of "reopening" is more stringent than our version of "lockdown"...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-revs-its-engine-to-move-past-coronavirus-but-its-stuck-in-second-gear/2020/03/31/13c81b20-7230-11ea-ad9b-254ec99993bc_story.html
China's doing a lot wrong here, but I think it's not clear to say they're "reopening" in the sense it would mean to most of us.

I'm speaking specifically on the wet markets reopening.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 02, 2020, 10:46:19 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 02, 2020, 10:07:57 AM

1. All I know is, I was sicker than a dog for almost two weeks in the middle of January. Never in my life got that sick from a regular flu. I think it’s possible that I may have already had this thing already and got better. I can guarantee you this thing was circulating in the US well before March.

2. So far there have been 5,000 deaths in the US. This is a country close to 350 million people if you’re including illegals. We can’t shut down the entire country and risk going into a depression over a disease that quiet honestly just isn’t that deadly. If it was a disease like Ebola that had a fatality rate of 60% or something insane like that- sure- shut the shit down.

3. I think a lot of this hysteria is driven by the media and by people that want to take down Trump. This virus is terrible don’t get me wrong, any amount of people dying is just sad, but I honestly don’t believe it’s as bad as “they” say it is. Millions and millions of people aren’t going to die from this. And millions and millions wouldn’t have died even if they didn’t lock everything down.
I'll address these by the numbers
1. I've seen all sort of people saying, I felt like crap at some point this winter, very possible that was this. And while it is, lots of things are possible. I might have the start of tumors forming in my body. My shoulder hurts, so it's possible I have the start of a torn rotator cuff. But I'm not going to act as if those things are the case. (Fortunately a test for that may be coming)

2. The problem with the "so far" thing is just that. It's so far. And we've not hit any real hospital issues yet. God willing it stays that way, but it just a massive unknown. I was talking to someone like two weeks ago who wondered the same thing, pointing to Italy. In less than two weeks, their numbers doubled. Now a lot of that is testing, but just sticking with the data we have right now has holes.

3. Are you referring to the media and such political people as one group or two? From what I've read, it's a disaster financial for media, as advertising is the first cut in hard times. (there was also plenty of media saying it wouldn't be bad, but that's another talk). Anyway, if you believe the ... uh, scientists, they projected several million would die. Maybe they're wrong, but they're at worst, a more informed wrong than an "honest belief" of someone who very much wants it to not be that bad. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 02, 2020, 10:50:54 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 02, 2020, 10:37:14 AM
A report from Italy that I read a few days ago, suggested that a lot of the deaths from COVID19, would have ended in death by the end of the year anyway, based on their underlying conditions.

That's one of the factors that will need to be considered as well, if government leaders believe they want to extend the quarantines much further than they already have.

It's an ugly discussion for sure.  They're ALL ugly discussions at this point.
I saw the underlying conditions part, not the dead in the next year part. I wish there was a list of such underlying conditions, just because lots of people live with things that could be considered underlying conditions, some that are mostly manageable but for such a situation. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 02, 2020, 10:54:23 AM
If you've ever been to Italy, you'd know that almost everyone is a chain smoker. If I had to guess, I'd call it 75 percent being heavy smokers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on April 02, 2020, 10:57:59 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 02, 2020, 10:54:23 AM
If you've ever been to Italy, you'd know that almost everyone is a chain smoker. If I had to guess, I'd call it 75 percent being heavy smokers.
I haven't been to Europe since 1989.  Back then I thought the same thing but back then smoking was MUCH more prevalent here as well.  How long has it been since you were in Italy?  

I'm just curious because if they are anything like the US then I would guess that if your information is 10 years old it is worthless.  I don't know, just guessing.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 02, 2020, 11:00:36 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 02, 2020, 10:54:23 AM
If you've ever been to Italy, you'd know that almost everyone is a chain smoker. If I had to guess, I'd call it 75 percent being heavy smokers.
And if you’ve ever been to Italy, you’d know Italy is also like the oldest country in the world. 

There are more old ass people in Italy than just about anywhere I’ve ever been. And they don’t stay in the home- they get out and about in public and around people.

And actually I think I read that Italy had the 2nd highest % of people 65+ in their population. Only Japan has an older population than Italy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 02, 2020, 11:08:40 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 02, 2020, 10:07:57 AM
All I know is, I was sicker than a dog for almost two weeks in the middle of January. Never in my life got that sick from a regular flu. I think it’s possible that I may have already had this thing already and got better. I can guarantee you this thing was circulating in the US well before March.
If that's the case in a strange way you are fortunate then
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 02, 2020, 11:10:47 AM
I haven't followed this very closely but do we know with any certainty the source of this virus?

was it definitely from a "wet market"?  Was it from eating bats?

can we even pin point it's origin to China?

some folks think the Spanish flu from 1918 was originated in Kansas
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 02, 2020, 11:10:53 AM
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on April 02, 2020, 10:57:59 AM
I haven't been to Europe since 1989.  Back then I thought the same thing but back then smoking was MUCH more prevalent here as well.  How long has it been since you were in Italy? 

I'm just curious because if they are anything like the US then I would guess that if your information is 10 years old it is worthless.  I don't know, just guessing. 
9 months. They are not like here. Every table has an ash tray on it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on April 02, 2020, 11:11:29 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 02, 2020, 10:50:54 AM
I saw the underlying conditions part, not the dead in the next year part. I wish there was a list of such underlying conditions, just because lots of people live with things that could be considered underlying conditions, some that are mostly manageable but for such a situation.
I get what you are saying but I'll give you two examples:

First, the 85 year old that I mentioned above.  I know he had at least two prior cancer episodes.  I don't know all of his health information.  I keyed what I knew and some decent guesses into John Hancock's Life Expectancy Calculator and got "86 years" as his life expectancy.  That is one year older than the 85 that he was when he got COVID-19.  Ie, COVID cost him ~1 year of life.  

Second, my dad.  My dad is 79.  He has hearth disease (multiple prior attacks, multiple stents, etc) and he has advanced dementia.  I hope COVID-19 doesn't get him.  I have he and my mom staying in their house and I'm dropping off groceries and prescriptions for them.  I'm doing everything I can to keep them alive.  That said, if COVID-19 does get my dad, it isn't going to take, actuarially, more than a year or two away from him.  His age and co-morbidity factors realistically have already set that in stone.  

A note on statistics:
On a one-to-one basis this is all poppycock.  In the absence of COVID-19 Chuck (the 85 year old I know who died of COVID-19) might have lived to 100 or he might have died of heart failure today instead of COVID-19 four days ago.  Same for my dad.  If he avoids COVID-19 he might die tomorrow or live to 100.  On an individual basis we can't know.  However, on a large-scale we can predict these things very accurately.  If you group together 100 or 1,000 or 10,000 people in similar situations to Chuck or in similar situations to my dad you can predict with VERY high accuracy that:

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 02, 2020, 11:13:32 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 02, 2020, 11:10:47 AM
I haven't followed this very closely but do we know with any certainty the source of this virus?

was it definitely from a "wet market"?  Was it from eating bats?

can we even pin point it's origin to China?

some folks think the Spanish flu from 1918 was originated in Kansas
A. I think they pinpointed it to animals (bird or bats) that crapped on the ground. Pigs eat the crap. People eat the pigs. 

B. The Spanish flu was called that because Spain was the only country not pretending it wasn't happening because they were not at war and not censoring newspapers. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on April 02, 2020, 11:13:49 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 02, 2020, 11:10:53 AM
9 months. They are not like here. Every table has an ash tray on it.
Ok, just curious.  I hope you understood my question as genuine curiosity rather than opposition.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 02, 2020, 11:15:00 AM
I was sick with a respiratory illness way back in October.

I rarely go to the doctor for anything, but had a trip planned to the Husker/gopher game in Minneapolis and thought antibiotics might help.

I was checked for flu and strep, all tests came back negative.  Was told it was probably a virus and would have to run it's course.

I felt crappy while in Minneapolis that weekend, but survived the trip.

I'm hoping it was Covid and I'm over it, but not sure the virus was here in October.  Obviously I'm not a world traveler.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 02, 2020, 11:15:26 AM
At this point I believe we still don't know whether having contracted and survived COVID-19 confers immunity, or for how long. 

So while "getting better" is obviously more fortunate than the alternative, it's unclear whether that protects at all against reinfection. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 02, 2020, 11:15:41 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 02, 2020, 11:00:36 AM
And if you’ve ever been to Italy, you’d know Italy is also like the oldest country in the world.

There are more old ass people in Italy than just about anywhere I’ve ever been. And they don’t stay in the home- they get out and about in public and around people.

And actually I think I read that Italy had the 2nd highest % of people 65+ in their population. Only Japan has an older population than Italy.
Yep, Italy is an older population (like Florida, kinda). They are also very social and touchy and kissy people, in general. Even when they started their shutdown, people were gathering in piazzas. It's what they do. Since they've gone to patrolling, people are staying home, for real.


Germany has very strict rules. I talked to my buddy on what's app the other day and he said only one person is allowed to leave the house for groceries (and beer) at a time. The stores can only have 2 customers at a time (they don't have Kroger/Publix type stores there). Germany is doing VERY well with this thing, by the way. Of course, they have a robust healthcare system, like ours and maybe even better, as opposed to state-run healthcare systems in Italy, Spain, etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 02, 2020, 11:16:40 AM
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on April 02, 2020, 11:13:49 AM
Ok, just curious.  I hope you understood my question as genuine curiosity rather than opposition. 
For sure. I know you're not like that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on April 02, 2020, 11:17:20 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 02, 2020, 11:13:32 AM
A. I think they pinpointed it to animals (bird or bats) that crapped on the ground. Pigs eat the crap. People eat the pigs.

B. The Spanish flu was called that because Spain was the only country not pretending it wasn't happening because they were not at war and not censoring newspapers.
A. Wait, I thought stomach acid would kill it, no?  If you ate infected pig wouldn't that not transfer because either:

B. I always thought it was funny that it was called the "Spanish Flu" because my understanding is that it originated in Turkey and the Spanish just basically got blamed for it.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 02, 2020, 11:19:19 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 02, 2020, 11:10:47 AM
I haven't followed this very closely but do we know with any certainty the source of this virus?

was it definitely from a "wet market"?  Was it from eating bats?

can we even pin point it's origin to China?

some folks think the Spanish flu from 1918 was originated in Kansas
It came from China. It originated in bats. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 02, 2020, 11:20:38 AM
Guano
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 02, 2020, 11:22:02 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 02, 2020, 11:19:19 AM
It came from China. It originated in bats.
Or in a lab.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 02, 2020, 11:22:29 AM
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on April 02, 2020, 11:17:20 AM
A. Wait, I thought stomach acid would kill it, no?  If you ate infected pig wouldn't that not transfer because either:
  • Cooking the pig would kill it, or
  • Your stomach acid would kill it, or
  • both?
My understanding is that's largely correct. The infection pathway that would occur through ingestion is much lower likelihood than through a respiratory pathway.

But think of it another way... The virus is on/in a piece of pork. Someone purchases the pork, takes it home, and while preparing the pork, touches their nose or eyes. That would be infection through a respiratory (mucus membrane) pathway even though eating the cooked pork may not have had anything to do with it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on April 02, 2020, 11:22:42 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 02, 2020, 11:15:26 AM
At this point I believe we still don't know whether having contracted and survived COVID-19 confers immunity, or for how long.

So while "getting better" is obviously more fortunate than the alternative, it's unclear whether that protects at all against reinfection.
From what I understand, a couple of things:

One problem with this thing is that it is TOTALLY different from the typical "Flu" virus.  All of us older than toddlers have some built-up immunity to the Flu.  Now there are different strains of flu and that is why we still get sick but part of the reason that the death rate is fairly low is that we do have some built-up immunity to the flu even if we aren't completely immune to the particular strain in question.  

My understanding is that the reason this is being called "Novel" coronavirus is that it is new to us entirely.  It isn't just a different strain of the usual Flu, this is a totally different virus that we have no built-up immunity to at all.  There are probably already multiple strains of this thing but any survivor of any strain would have at least some built-up residual immunity to other strains.  

I'm not a doctor and that is just from what I've read and my understanding of it.  Also, as always, remember that Abraham Lincoln said to not believe everything you read on the internet.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 02, 2020, 11:24:10 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 02, 2020, 11:22:02 AM
Or in a lab.
Folks gotta make life more spicy than it probably is. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 02, 2020, 11:25:43 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 02, 2020, 11:24:10 AM
Folks gotta make life more spicy than it probably is.
Feel free to trust China all you want. I do not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 02, 2020, 11:25:51 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 02, 2020, 11:19:19 AM
It came from China. It originated in bats.
I just watched on PBS a nature series about Cuba.there were batcolonies in some big cave and they fly out in force at dusk.Turns out there are snakes that hang down in these caves and pick them off as there flying by.Maybe Amazon can get & mail them some of those snakes
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 02, 2020, 11:27:27 AM
I've always wondered what the phrase "bat shit crazy" meant.

Now I know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 02, 2020, 11:28:36 AM
847 bringing his "A" game.Unfortunately humanity had to find out
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 02, 2020, 11:34:18 AM
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on April 02, 2020, 11:22:42 AM
From what I understand, a couple of things:

One problem with this thing is that it is TOTALLY different from the typical "Flu" virus.  All of us older than toddlers have some built-up immunity to the Flu.  Now there are different strains of flu and that is why we still get sick but part of the reason that the death rate is fairly low is that we do have some built-up immunity to the flu even if we aren't completely immune to the particular strain in question. 

My understanding is that the reason this is being called "Novel" coronavirus is that it is new to us entirely.  It isn't just a different strain of the usual Flu, this is a totally different virus that we have no built-up immunity to at all.  There are probably already multiple strains of this thing but any survivor of any strain would have at least some built-up residual immunity to other strains. 

I'm not a doctor and that is just from what I've read and my understanding of it.  Also, as always, remember that Abraham Lincoln said to not believe everything you read on the internet. 
Well, the entire family of coronavirii is different than the family of influenza virii. That said, coronavirii are not new. They cause many common colds. 

Swine flu, bird flu, etc are variants of influenza. SARS and MERS are variants of coronavirii.

So this is called "novel" because we've never seen THIS coronavirus, but that doesn't mean we have never seen coronavirii. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on April 02, 2020, 11:38:42 AM
The Spanish flu was so named because they were the only government in Europe that wasn't actively involved in World War 1, and as such weren't censoring the news. 

Then we have good news from the good folks down in Rochester: their antibody testing will be ready soon. 

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/04/01/mayo-clinic-expects-covid19-antibody-test-to-be-ready-monday

These are the tests that, once dispatched at scale, will allow for the slow unwinding of the SIP restrictions. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on April 02, 2020, 11:49:10 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 02, 2020, 11:34:18 AM
Well, the entire family of coronavirii is different than the family of influenza virii. That said, coronavirii are not new. They cause many common colds.

Swine flu, bird flu, etc are variants of influenza. SARS and MERS are variants of coronavirii.

So this is called "novel" because we've never seen THIS coronavirus, but that doesn't mean we have never seen coronavirii.
Thank you for clearing that up for me.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 02, 2020, 12:07:02 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 02, 2020, 11:25:43 AM
Feel free to trust China all you want. I do not.
Oh I don’t trust them. But I’m doubtful of the ability to pull off such a dramatic pandemic. When my choices are dramatic and reliant on a high skill level, or stupid and bumbling, I usually guess the latter. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 02, 2020, 12:23:52 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 02, 2020, 12:07:02 PM
Oh I don’t trust them. But I’m doubtful of the ability to pull off such a dramatic pandemic. When my choices are dramatic and reliant on a high skill level, or stupid and bumbling, I usually guess the latter.
They probably even surprised themselves with the level of "success" they've carried out with this one, after years of failure... :67:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 02, 2020, 12:44:32 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 02, 2020, 12:07:02 PM
Oh I don’t trust them. But I’m doubtful of the ability to pull off such a dramatic pandemic. When my choices are dramatic and reliant on a high skill level, or stupid and bumbling, I usually guess the latter.
They know what kind of bat produced this virus and there are no bats of that type anywhere around Wuhan or in the markets. They are however in the two labs near Wuhan. It’s not a draconian theory it was probably just a big accident as several people in those labs openly worked with the blood and body fluids of those bats
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on April 02, 2020, 04:54:08 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 02, 2020, 12:07:02 PM
Oh I don’t trust them. But I’m doubtful of the ability to pull off such a dramatic pandemic. When my choices are dramatic and reliant on a high skill level, or stupid and bumbling, I usually guess the latter.
I am generally a strong believer in Hanlon's Razor:
Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity".  

However, I have my doubts here.  The Chinese National at Harvard getting arrested right as this thing was blowing up and the existence of labs in the Wuhan area certainly make it a valid question.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 02, 2020, 05:25:31 PM
bat rastards
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 02, 2020, 06:09:18 PM
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-not-human-made-lab-genetic-analysis-nature?fbclid=IwAR3gxVY73ZVlvmQOqOzGTsRs3nDLm57R-I7UsKBQVsIm4gqmM1UK9FMoOL0 (https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-not-human-made-lab-genetic-analysis-nature?fbclid=IwAR3gxVY73ZVlvmQOqOzGTsRs3nDLm57R-I7UsKBQVsIm4gqmM1UK9FMoOL0)

The virus may have started with pangolins.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0331/1127645-was-the-pangolin-the-source-of-the-covid-19-outbreak/ (https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0331/1127645-was-the-pangolin-the-source-of-the-covid-19-outbreak/)

(https://i.imgur.com/122PawT.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 02, 2020, 06:10:10 PM
Pangolins have large, protective keratin (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keratin) scales covering their skin; they are the only known mammals with this feature. They live in hollow trees or burrows (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burrow), depending on the species. Pangolins are nocturnal (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nocturnal), and their diet consists of mainly ants (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ants) and termites (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Termites), which they capture using their long tongues. They tend to be solitary animals, meeting only to mate and produce a litter of one to three offspring, which they raise for about two years.

Pangolins are threatened by poaching (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin_trade) (for their meat and scales, which are used in Chinese traditional medicine (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_traditional_medicine) for a variety of ailments including excessive anxiety and hysterical crying in children, women thought to be possessed by devils (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devil) and ogres (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ogre), malarial (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaria) fever, and deafness[4] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin#cite_note-4)) and heavy deforestation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deforestation) of their natural habitats, and are the most trafficked (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wildlife_smuggling) mammals in the world.[5] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin#cite_note-5) As of January 2020, of the eight species of pangolin, three (Manis culionensis (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manis_culionensis), M. pentadactyla (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manis_pentadactyla) and M. javanica (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manis_javanica)) are listed as critically endangered, three (Phataginus tricuspis (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phataginus_tricuspis), Manis crassicaudata (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manis_crassicaudata) and Smutsia gigantea (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smutsia_gigantea)) are listed as endangered and two (Phataginus tetradactyla (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phataginus_tetradactyla) and Smutsia temminckii (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smutsia_temminckii)) are listed as vulnerable on the Red List of Threatened Species (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_List_of_Threatened_Species) of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Union_for_Conservation_of_Nature).[6] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin#cite_note-IUCN_Manidae-6)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 02, 2020, 06:30:55 PM
I'd rather deal with bats

these anteaters are ugly and very probably foul smelling

if they happened to become extinct, I wouldn't worry much
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 02, 2020, 06:35:00 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 02, 2020, 06:09:18 PM
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-not-human-made-lab-genetic-analysis-nature?fbclid=IwAR3gxVY73ZVlvmQOqOzGTsRs3nDLm57R-I7UsKBQVsIm4gqmM1UK9FMoOL0 (https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-not-human-made-lab-genetic-analysis-nature?fbclid=IwAR3gxVY73ZVlvmQOqOzGTsRs3nDLm57R-I7UsKBQVsIm4gqmM1UK9FMoOL0)

The virus may have started with pangolins.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0331/1127645-was-the-pangolin-the-source-of-the-covid-19-outbreak/ (https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0331/1127645-was-the-pangolin-the-source-of-the-covid-19-outbreak/)

(https://i.imgur.com/122PawT.png)
Did you read the article? 

The best evidence at the moment points to the virus originating in bats. It’s thought to have jumped to pangolins from bats, and then to have mutated and then jumped from pangolins to humans.

Now how did it jump from species to species to species? At one of China’s many DISGUSTING, inhumane, cruel, wildlife wet markets where these WILD animals are stacked in cages all on top of each other vomiting, shitting, pissing, breathing, and bleeding all over each other and slaughtered alive by humans and sold to other humans right then and there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 02, 2020, 06:35:26 PM
Was talking to a coworker in Colorado Springs today. They're now officially on lockdown [although as an essential infrastructure company, a lot of those guys are still working in our engineering labs when they can't remote into systems].

He was saying that their county is the highest death rate so far of COVID-19 in Colorado. And, it happens to be nearly the most "conservative". He mentioned that people are still having block parties and basically congregating as if nothing has happened, and that one of our other coworkers from that office (he didn't name him because he knows I would know him) was saying "it's just the flu!"

So... Yeah. Good work, Colorado!

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 02, 2020, 06:40:29 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 02, 2020, 06:30:55 PM
I'd rather deal with bats

these anteaters are ugly and very probably foul smelling

if they happened to become extinct, I wouldn't worry much
You’d rather not. Bats carry more viruses than just about any species in the world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 02, 2020, 07:19:16 PM
Bat Shit Crazy!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 02, 2020, 07:25:45 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/YRuS42J.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 02, 2020, 08:41:38 PM
gets expensive if you can't spoof your number and have to pay the toll
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 02, 2020, 09:46:14 PM
so has everyone here watched tiger king on Netflix during the quarantine.

Quite possibly the greatest tv show in the history of television.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 02, 2020, 09:50:05 PM
not one second

not going there either
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 02, 2020, 09:57:16 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 02, 2020, 09:50:05 PM
not one second

not going there either
You’re missing out. 

I swear to god you’d think the story was written by Danny McBride for an HBO comedy series.

It is utterly fascinating.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 02, 2020, 10:12:57 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 02, 2020, 06:35:00 PM
 where these WILD animals are stacked in cages all on top of each other vomiting, shitting, pissing, breathing, and bleeding all over each other 
This is what I always imagined the poor apartments of NYC were like....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 02, 2020, 10:16:31 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 02, 2020, 10:12:57 PM
This is what I always imagined the poor apartments of NYC were like....
If you want to see the poor apartments of NYC then watch that Netflix documentary about President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner’s family business. Holy shit. Slumdog Millionaire lived in nicer conditions in India.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 03, 2020, 12:42:54 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 02, 2020, 09:46:14 PM
so has everyone here watched tiger king on Netflix during the quarantine.

Quite possibly the greatest tv show in the history of television.
No interest. And that's even with my morning radio show (The Woody Show) hyping it constantly. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on April 03, 2020, 01:40:02 AM
It is a long form version of Inside Edition/Hard Copy/Springer.   The people really do deserve each other.   It is fascinating, but by episode three or four I just lose interest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on April 03, 2020, 02:06:26 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 02, 2020, 06:35:00 PM
Now how did it jump from species to species to species? At one of China’s many DISGUSTING, inhumane, cruel, wildlife wet markets where these WILD animals are stacked in cages all on top of each other vomiting, shitting, pissing, breathing, and bleeding all over each other and slaughtered alive by humans and sold to other humans right then and there.
Someone posted today on Facebook that Chinese wet markets are have reopened. If we could do something now to improve the human condition, and the conditions for animals, by convincing China this practice is too dangerous to the human condition to allow this to continue, I would support it.  

COVID-19 is not the first virus to jump from animal species to humans in China. The 2003 SARS outbreak  originated in China when SARS jumped from bats to humans. It wasn't as virulent as COVID-19. WHO said the SARS infection count was just 8,098 with 774 deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 03, 2020, 05:10:19 AM
Viruses jumping from animals to humans is common, to the extent it has an actual technical name.

We are animals after all, mammals etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on April 03, 2020, 09:07:00 AM
Italy:

The numbers out of Italy are a bit misleading unless you understand that WRT COVID-19 Italy has to be looked at by region.  As of yesterday Italy, as a whole, had 1,333 active cases per 1M population.  That is scary.  However, it is nowhere near uniform across the country.  Instead, Norther/Alpine Italy is a complete catastrophe with cases per 1M ranging from about 900 to almost 2,600.  Meanwhile, Southern/Mediterranean Italy has a lower rate of cases per 1M than the US and most of the rest of Europe.  

In Sicily there are 257 cases per 1M population.  

Putting this into perspective:
I live in a City of ~30k within a County of ~180k.  At 2,600 cases per 1M (like Northern Italy) that works out to:


At 257 cases per 1M (like Sicily) that works out to:



That difference is vast.  I'm pretty sure my City/County have sufficient facilities to deal with 8/46 cases but it goes without saying that we don't have sufficient facilities to deal with 78/468.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on April 03, 2020, 09:23:12 AM
Ohio:
The good news is that Ohio's rate of doubling slowed from every two days in mid-March to every four days now.  The bad news is that doubling every four days is still SCARY fast.  

NY (3,900/1M), NJ (2,500/1M), LA (1,300/1M), MA (1,100/1M), CT (1,000/1M), MI (900/1M), WA (700/1M), DC (600/1M), and CO (600/1M) are the states with the highest percentage infected.  

US Counties with the highest rates of infection per 1M population:


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 03, 2020, 09:52:09 AM
We need a spreadsheet, with graphs. I wish I knew someone who was really good at that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 03, 2020, 10:00:18 AM
The service area of our local hospital has 108 known cases. I don't have the data on how many are hospitalized.

My town has 24 cases. I suspect that more than a few of these are in nursing homes. The hospital has 500 beds, not including the emergency room (50).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 03, 2020, 10:05:15 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on April 03, 2020, 02:06:26 AM
 If we could do something now to improve the human condition, and the conditions for animals, by convincing China this practice is too dangerous to the human condition to allow this to continue, I would support it.
IMO unless powerful members of their Central Committee are affected(or their families) they would have to find a heart or a conscience.That could be a tall order if this was really cooked up in a lab - hope that is not the case
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 03, 2020, 10:23:38 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 02, 2020, 06:30:55 PM
I'd rather deal with bats
these anteaters are ugly and very probably foul smelling
Sounds like a Frat Boy date
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 03, 2020, 10:23:59 AM
The little village I lived in on the Navajo Rez got their first known case, and it was an employee at the grocery store.  Reeeally bad news - this place has only the grocery store, a gas station, and a subway.  No other commecial properties at all.
.
So they closed the grocery store - the next nearest one is 60 miles away.  Of course their first case is someone working at the only social hub that exists there.  It's going to get bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 03, 2020, 10:25:27 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 02, 2020, 08:41:38 PM
gets expensive if you can't spoof your number and have to pay the toll
So you've tried it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 03, 2020, 10:29:44 AM
Seems like a rather small village to have a subway.  Is traffic that bad there?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 03, 2020, 10:32:08 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 03, 2020, 10:23:59 AM
The little village I lived in on the Navajo Rez got their first known case, and it was an employee at the grocery store.  Reeeally bad news - this place has only the grocery store, a gas station, and a subway.  No other commecial properties at all.
.
So they closed the grocery store - the next nearest one is 60 miles away.  Of course their first case is someone working at the only social hub that exists there.  It's going to get bad.
Hopefully the communication/liason people are working with the Government.Wonder if this a a case of food boxes/containers being infectced before delivery.As the reservation would be somewhat isolated.Probably disinfect and reopen
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 03, 2020, 11:58:36 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 03, 2020, 10:25:27 AM
So you've tried it?
I've tried to bill for it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on April 03, 2020, 11:58:45 AM
Gang, this is a bad prospect for this fall's football season. 

https://www.kentucky.com/news/coronavirus/article241741256.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 03, 2020, 12:03:09 PM
SIOUX CITY -- Woodbury County recorded one new confirmed case of COVID-19 Friday, raising the county's total to eight.

Roughly 4 percent of Woodbury County's tests have come back positive for COVID-19. As of Friday, 228 total tests had been completed on Woodbury County residents and 220 of them were negative.

Three Woodbury County residents who tested positive for COVID-19 have recovered, the health department reported earlier this week.

As the availability of testing increases, health officials said last week they expect the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 to rise. Local health officials estimate they'll be able to test up to 60 patients a day for the novel coronavirus at a drive-thru testing site that opened March 27 in downtown Sioux City. In order to be tested for COVID-19, patients must call their primary care physician, who will assess their symptoms either in-person or through telehealth, a visit by phone or video chat.


This in a county of just over 100,000.

to qualify for the test, you need to be at serious risk or have ALL the symptoms.  I'm guessing some folks don't have all the symptoms but are simply scared and lying about their situation to get a test.

roughly 4%
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 03, 2020, 12:08:07 PM
Hearing that the tests have roughly a 30% false negative rate. That's... Concerning.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/well/live/coronavirus-symptoms-tests-false-negative.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/well/live/coronavirus-symptoms-tests-false-negative.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 03, 2020, 12:10:12 PM
that might help explain the spread

folks get a negative test and assume they are NOT contagious - then relax their efforts and give it to many others
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 03, 2020, 12:13:05 PM
My step daughter tested negative, and then her doctor told her it didn't really mean anything, she has all the classic symptoms.

A bad test is worse than no test at all.

I'm not shocked that the test would be dicey at this point.  The Abbot test might be more reliable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 03, 2020, 01:15:46 PM
Here in SE Florida today is the first day of the statewide “ shelter in place”.  Being in the financial side I am Allowed to travel to the office- which I do from Time to time because even though we’re working from home many actual loan documents are only legal with a real signature so I do have to go print occasionally

The traffic is unchanged.  Busy as hell
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 03, 2020, 01:15:56 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 03, 2020, 05:10:19 AM
Viruses jumping from animals to humans is common, to the extent it has an actual technical name.

We are animals after all, mammals etc.
Viruses that jump species to species are called zoonotic viruses.

And it’s not as common for them to jump to humans as you think. Why? Because most of these viruses are in WILD animals that belong in the wild and don’t belong anywhere near modern human beings and modern civilization.

You have barbaric savages in third world shit hole countries capturing and/or breeding wildlife and chopping them up and eating them in very densely packed public spaces.

SIV for example would’ve never in a million f’n years come into contact with humans and mutated and turned into HIV if it wasn’t for PEOPLE capturing these WILD monkeys and apes that carried the SIV virus and then chopped them up and butchered them and ate them and got infected with a new virus that previously was NEVER found in human beings.

Wildlife poaching and wildlife markets in Africa and Asia are going to be the end of humanity. This Coronavirus is nothing compared to what’s lurking around the corner. The true fatality rate on this thing is probably less than 1%. There are other viruses out there lurking in wild animals that are WAY more deadly than that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 03, 2020, 01:21:14 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 03, 2020, 01:15:46 PM
Here in SE Florida today is the first day of the statewide “ shelter in place”.  Being in the financial side I am Allowed to travel to the office- which I do from Time to time because even though we’re working from home many actual loan documents are only legal with a real signature so I do have to go print occasionally

The traffic is unchanged.  Busy as hell
Lol I haven’t left the house today but yesterday I was down in Broward county and the traffic was still as insane as ever. 

This shelter in place order that DeSantis put in place is kinda weak. Lots of exemptions and wiggle room for people. He did it just to save face and relieve some political pressure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 03, 2020, 01:25:15 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 03, 2020, 01:21:14 PM
Lol I haven’t left the house today but yesterday I was down in Broward county and the traffic was still as insane as ever.

This shelter in place order that DeSantis put in place is kinda weak. Lots of exemptions and wiggle room for people. He did it just to save face and relieve some political pressure.
Actually, it's pretty much the same order in every state, except New York. Cuomo tightened theirs down last week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 03, 2020, 01:25:42 PM
I do need to go out to the day to the "grocery store"...

This particular "grocery store" sells grain, and hops, but because they sell food they're deemed essential. 

I actually do need to go to the butcher as well. Since my wife and I are obviously not going to Ruth's Chris tomorrow for our anniversary dinner, I'll be buying some great steaks. 

What's going to be weird is that my wife bought us some fabric masks. I don't want to have to wear it because I know I'll feel awkward... But I'm going to do so. Also planning on bringing wet wipes to wipe down my hands as soon as I get in the car after each stop. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 03, 2020, 01:28:14 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/Bo4Fjy0.jpg)



From the NYT, apparently derived from cellphone location data. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 03, 2020, 01:34:12 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 03, 2020, 01:25:42 PM
I actually do need to go to the butcher as well. Since my wife and I are obviously not going to Ruth's Chris tomorrow for our anniversary dinner, I'll be buying some great steaks.
how do you cook your steaks? 

Grill? Oven? Cast iron on the stove ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 03, 2020, 01:35:03 PM
Traffic here has been WAY down for weeks now.  If folks in FL have been carrying on as if nothing much is happening, they are going to have more problems than just New Yorkers coming into the state.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 03, 2020, 01:37:02 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 03, 2020, 01:35:03 PM
Traffic here has been WAY down for weeks now.  If folks in FL have been carrying on as if nothing much is happening, they are going to have more problems than just New Yorkers coming into the state.
It could be bad, but I don’t think it’ll approach NY levels. South Florida is very spread out and nowhere near as many people or as densely populated as NYC/NJ metro area. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 03, 2020, 01:50:14 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 03, 2020, 01:34:12 PM
how do you cook your steaks?

Grill? Oven? Cast iron on the stove ?
Take it to the cookbook thread!!



(Cast iron on the grill)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 03, 2020, 01:50:20 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 03, 2020, 01:34:12 PM
how do you cook your steaks?

Grill? Oven? Cast iron on the stove ?
Grill. Usually I've been doing reverse sear, but recently I've been doing more of the sear on the grill and then finish in the oven. 

Because I'll be doing one ribeye and one filet, different sizes, I'll probably do this entirely reverse sear on the grill though. It'll make it easier to manage the timing and doneness better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 03, 2020, 01:52:57 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 03, 2020, 01:28:14 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/Bo4Fjy0.jpg)



From the NYT, apparently derived from cellphone location data.



That is really telling right there. Of course, some have no choice. We can walk to our store (and liquor store). Some people have to travel to another county.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 03, 2020, 02:03:06 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 03, 2020, 01:52:57 PM
That is really telling right there. Of course, some have no choice. We can walk to our store (and liquor store). Some people have to travel to another county.

The twitter response to that graph is right here:


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUnY2xTXYAE6chs?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 03, 2020, 02:04:23 PM
Looks pretty familiar doesn't it?  Like, if you overlaid one on the other, there'd be quite a bit of correlation?

Here we are back to your "statistics" discussion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 03, 2020, 02:26:04 PM
Yep. It would be easy to take that map out of context.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 03, 2020, 02:32:10 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 03, 2020, 02:03:06 PM
The twitter response to that graph is right here:


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUnY2xTXYAE6chs?format=jpg&name=small)
Without digging back into the colorblindness discussion... Does that look wrong to anyone else?

The <2.5 looks pretty yellow, and I don't see that color anywhere on the map. It certainly doesn't appear to match the lightest color on the map.

2.5-5 percent looks too dark for the second-lightest color on the map. 

And how is it REMOTELY possible that the areas of the western states which are SO much lower in population density than the South are not more heavily represented? 

I realize this is "no car" and no supermarket within a mile, and maybe those areas have higher car ownership. But the people without cars probably aren't the ones regularly traveling over 2 miles... I assume the original NYT graph had some sort of a cutoff in population... I.e. my wife is regularly traveling >2 miles because we live 13 miles from her work and she's going every day. And I'm going to Costco which is >2 miles away but it's once a week at most. 

You'd think the ones with no car and >1 mile to the supermarket are already trying to limit their travel because they have no car. 

There's something hinky there...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 03, 2020, 02:32:49 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 03, 2020, 02:26:04 PM
Yep. It would be easy to take that map out of context.
The first shitheel who posted the NYT graph on twitter simply gave the comment:

"The South"

So fuck that guy and the assholes who think like him.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 03, 2020, 02:34:52 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 03, 2020, 02:32:10 PM
Without digging back into the colorblindness discussion... Does that look wrong to anyone else?

The <2.5 looks pretty yellow, and I don't see that color anywhere on the map. It certainly doesn't appear to match the lightest color on the map.

2.5-5 percent looks too dark for the second-lightest color on the map.

And how is it REMOTELY possible that the areas of the western states which are SO much lower in population density than the South are not more heavily represented?

I realize this is "no car" and no supermarket within a mile, and maybe those areas have higher car ownership. But the people without cars probably aren't the ones regularly traveling over 2 miles... I assume the original NYT graph had some sort of a cutoff in population... I.e. my wife is regularly traveling >2 miles because we live 13 miles from her work and she's going every day. And I'm going to Costco which is >2 miles away but it's once a week at most.

You'd think the ones with no car and >1 mile to the supermarket are already trying to limit their travel because they have no car.

There's something hinky there...

Eh.  Can't speak for all of the western states but in West Texas, most of the towns are less than a mile across and so nobody's traveling farther than a mile to go ANYWHERE.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 03, 2020, 02:37:41 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 03, 2020, 01:50:20 PM
Grill. Usually I've been doing reverse sear, but recently I've been doing more of the sear on the grill and then finish in the oven.

Been using the reverse seer and it has worked great
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 03, 2020, 02:38:51 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 03, 2020, 02:32:49 PM
The first shitheel who posted the NYT graph on twitter simply gave the comment:

"The South"

So fuck that guy and the assholes who think like him. 


Preach it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 03, 2020, 02:44:38 PM
This is actually the ship we were supposed to be on right now, from Peru. 

I’m not surprised nobody got sick on an Azamara ship. They take cleanliness and sanitation to a whole different level than I’ve ever seen.
 
I know some of that crew who were mentioned in the article too. Igor is my favorite bartender/server, and Paulo has cleaned my room on 4 of the 5 cruises I’ve taken. I was looking forward to seeing those guys too, and the senior staff, of course. White Night is awesome.
 
Oh well. Not to be.
 
F You, CCP. F. YOU.

 
https://www.azamara.com/blog/azamara-pursuit-journey-remember?cid=aza_lcv_pursuit_returns_040320_allmkts&ecid=em_22963735&rid=1543346945&emsc=AZAUSA_LT_LCVV3ALLMKTSEM0119_LCV&emct=E&lnkid=https%3A//www.azamara.com/pursuitblog%3Fcid%3Daza_lcv_pursuit_returns_040320_allmkts (https://www.azamara.com/blog/azamara-pursuit-journey-remember?cid=aza_lcv_pursuit_returns_040320_allmkts&ecid=em_22963735&rid=1543346945&emsc=AZAUSA_LT_LCVV3ALLMKTSEM0119_LCV&emct=E&lnkid=https%3A//www.azamara.com/pursuitblog%3Fcid%3Daza_lcv_pursuit_returns_040320_allmkts)
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 03, 2020, 02:45:16 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 03, 2020, 02:32:49 PM
The first shitheel who posted the NYT graph on twitter simply gave the comment:

"The South"

So fuck that guy and the assholes who think like him. 


Well my first thought was "the red are all the people thinking it was a hoax"....just matter-of-factly.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 03, 2020, 02:51:00 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 03, 2020, 02:45:16 PM
Well my first thought was "the red are all the people thinking it was a hoax"....just matter-of-factly. 
That doesn't surprise me in the least.  Just matter of factly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on April 03, 2020, 03:31:12 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 03, 2020, 01:21:14 PM
Lol I haven’t left the house today but yesterday I was down in Broward county and the traffic was still as insane as ever.

This shelter in place order that DeSantis put in place is kinda weak. Lots of exemptions and wiggle room for people. He did it just to save face and relieve some political pressure.
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 03, 2020, 01:37:02 PM
It could be bad, but I don’t think it’ll approach NY levels. South Florida is very spread out and nowhere near as many people or as densely populated as NYC/NJ metro area.
I hope you are right.  My in-laws are in Broward County right now.  When this thing was just starting to blow up I offered to fly down and drive them back here because I thought that Ohio would be safer than Florida.  

It now appears pretty clear that I was right.  Ohio is at 212 cases per 1M population.  Summit County (where they live in Ohio) is at 242 cases per 1M population.  Medina County (where I live in Ohio) is at 306 cases per 1M population.  At home they are in Southern Summit County which is adjacent to Wayne County and Stark County which are at 78 and 121 cases per 1M population.  

They stayed for reasons that I don't want to get into right now and now they are in Broward County Florida.  I don't have County data for Florida at my fingertips but Florida as a whole is at 357 cases per 1M population and Miami-Dade County which is immediately South of Broward County (where they are) is at 810 cases per 1M population.  Also, while I can't see the actual figure, I do have a County Map of the Contiguous US and Broward County is the second-worst County in Florida, only better than Miami-Dade.  

I'm worried for them because my FIL is an 83 year old DAV with multiple serious co-morbidity factors while my MIL 69 and his only available caregiver.  If my FIL gets it I think his chances are pretty slim.  If my MIL gets it I have no idea who will take care of my FIL.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 03, 2020, 04:26:45 PM
My wife has said that traffic during commute times here is WIDE open. I didn't notice that on the way to the "grocery", as traffic was similar to what I'd expect with midday traffic... But then again midday is probably when more people are out that aren't at work. So I suspect people are mostly keeping to the basics of the stay at home order.

The homebrew store guys were saying that business has picked up for them... With everyone stuck at home, they're making more beer. So I may never go to another restaurant in my life, but at least the homebrew industry will survive!

I think I went overboard with my steak... My wife's filet is just under 11 oz, but my ribeye is over a pound and a half :72:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 03, 2020, 04:36:42 PM
That's some big beef!

My i s c & a aggie wife picked up a 13-lb brisket and three racks of pork spares today.  I think she's trying to tell me something...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 03, 2020, 04:52:32 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 03, 2020, 02:34:52 PM
Eh.  Can't speak for all of the western states but in West Texas, most of the towns are less than a mile across and so nobody's traveling farther than a mile to go ANYWHERE.

So everyone lives in the towns?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 03, 2020, 05:07:15 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 03, 2020, 02:32:49 PM
The first shitheel who posted the NYT graph on twitter simply gave the comment:

"The South"

So fuck that guy and the assholes who think like him. 


I saw that and, dumbass. That graphic was gonna get culture-war-y fast, and accelerating it to be a shit is just worthless. It was also gonna spawn counter graphics like the one above, which is sort of contextless (if you have no car and no super market within a mile, you're probably not going all that far). It also doesn't track cleanly enough to make sense. 

But the larger sin is to turn it into a vector of some sort of morality, i.e. a quick way to dunk on people. I could think of reasons folks in this part of the country might be a little more aggressive about it (stronger screw authority feelings, not much in the way of local orders, perhaps some other-izing of the problem). I'm generally flummoxed about the data because I simply don't believe folks in northern Michigan and South Dakota suddenly hopped on board en masse while everyone outside three cities in Alabama did not. 

Basically, this is an interesting bit of data that doesn't tell that much and invites more questions. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 03, 2020, 05:09:28 PM
Who sent the graphic to the New York paper? 


China?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 03, 2020, 05:09:33 PM
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/03/826699690/spain-briefly-passes-italy-in-covid-19-cases-but-officials-see-growth-rate-slowi?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=nprblogscoronavirusliveupdates (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/03/826699690/spain-briefly-passes-italy-in-covid-19-cases-but-officials-see-growth-rate-slowi?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=nprblogscoronavirusliveupdates)

Spain and Italy MAY be near cresting, hopefully.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 03, 2020, 05:11:28 PM
We live on a busy urban street, it's one way here, but it carries a good bit of traffic normally, and backs up around this time pretty bad.  It's an alternate route to the freeway, which usually is just stopped.  Today is about like Sunday at 8 AM.  And every day has been that way.

Pedestrian traffic is way down as well.  People here appear to be taking this very seriously in the main.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 03, 2020, 05:56:58 PM
I must live under a rock and not go on the twitters that much, but apparently billionaire David Geffen won the most tone deaf person alive award when he posted on his Instagram account drone shots of his 469 foot yacht in the Caribbean wishing everyone a safe and happy quarantine. This jackass got roasted alive on social media over it.

This dude is worth $8 billion and there are millions of people in his country out of work not able to afford their rent payments or food and thousands and thousands sick and all he can think about doing is showing off what’s essentially a private cruise ship- can’t even call it a yacht- that probably costs hundreds of millions of dollars. Absolutely disgusting to me. If I could kick him as hard as I possibly can in the dick I would. I would pay good money for that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 03, 2020, 06:02:22 PM
A ship that big is compensation for a very small dick, so I hope you have good aim.

469 feet? That's probably in the 100 Million range, depending on amenities. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 03, 2020, 06:10:06 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 03, 2020, 06:02:22 PM
A ship that big is compensation for a very small dick, so I hope you have good aim.

469 feet? That's probably in the 100 Million range, depending on amenities.
$590 million. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 03, 2020, 06:12:45 PM
And he’s deleted his Instagram and Twitter because he was getting roasted alive by all the internets. 

God I love the internet sometimes. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 03, 2020, 06:19:01 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 03, 2020, 06:10:06 PM
$590 million.
That's a lot of amenities. Must be palatial inside, like Paul Allen's yacht.


We were in St. Bart a few years ago during yacht week. Our ship was tendered there, as was Allen's and that HUGE one from Russia.


The day before New Year's Eve, the Russian had the Rolling Stones play live on his ship. Then, on New Year's Eve, U2 played. We could hear them from our ship. Unreal, some of the money that's out there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 03, 2020, 06:28:21 PM
I noticed in St. Tropez the same thing, some very large boats tied up to the dock, and then 8-10 more too large to dock anchored in the bay, 100 meter plus types.  Monaco was FULL of Ferraris that would roar and lurch about 20 feet in traffic until they had to stop.  Great fun.  Of course, a Ferrari is a gnat compared to a 100 m yacht.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 03, 2020, 08:10:16 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 03, 2020, 01:28:14 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/Bo4Fjy0.jpg)



From the NYT, apparently derived from cellphone location data.



not believing this a tall
many of the green areas out west, there isn't a grocery store or toilet paper outlet in 10 miles
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 03, 2020, 08:11:46 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 03, 2020, 06:19:01 PM
That's a lot of amenities. Must be palatial inside, like Paul Allen's yacht.


We were in St. Bart a few years ago during yacht week. Our ship was tendered there, as was Allen's and that HUGE one from Russia.


The day before New Year's Eve, the Russian had the Rolling Stones play live on his ship. Then, on New Year's Eve, U2 played. We could hear them from our ship. Unreal, some of the money that's out there.
It is unreal. And it's unreal how many of them there actually are with that sort of money. Very few people if any should honestly have that kind of money. Sad thing is most of the people with that kind of money in this country now do nothing to actually earn it through creating new and innovating products. Jeff Bezos, Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Steve Jobs- guys like that are incredibly rare birds. For every one of them that acquired extreme wealth through doing something truly unique and innovative and changing the world- there are idiots that became a billionaire like Jamie Dimon just by working at a bank.

Most guys nowadays that have stupid money have that money because they play games with money and stocks. You can include executives and CEO's of large multinationals in that lot. All they did the last decade was buyback shares of their own companies in record fashion. And why? To inflate the share price of their companies stock. Why? Because their compensation is directly tied to the stock price. Brilliant idea there! Tie executive compensation to share price! The deregulation and finacialization of the economy has had disastrous effects for the middle class of this country. There really isn't a middle class anymore. Common folk just keep getting wiped out while the rich become richer.

Google Steven A. Cohen, SAC Capital. He's worth oh, only $14 billion- and that's after he was fined $2 billion by the federal gov't. This dude built a hedge fund empire through manipulation of stocks and insider trading. I knew his brother in passing, he's a big CPA for medical Dr.'s. Anyway, back to Steven A. Cohen- dude is a straight up criminal and all he got was a slap on the wrist from the federal gov't. He was fined just under $2 billion and the mf'er is STILL worth $14 billion and never served a day in jail. He was barred from the feds from handling money for outsiders again.

The government of this country has failed it's people in just about every single way from the 1980's to 2020. And the people in this country today are nothing but a bunch of whining snowflakes with zero backbone.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 03, 2020, 08:15:19 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 03, 2020, 04:26:45 PM
I think I went overboard with my steak... My wife's filet is just under 11 oz, but my ribeye is over a pound and a half :72:
I'm quite sure you are on point!

I assume the ribeye is prime and beautifully marbled
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 03, 2020, 08:18:22 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 03, 2020, 05:56:58 PM
If I could kick him as hard as I possibly can in the dick I would. I would pay good money for that.
I'll chip in a benjamin to watch you kick him 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on April 04, 2020, 02:09:18 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 03, 2020, 08:10:16 PM
not believing this a tall
many of the green areas out west, there isn't a grocery store or toilet paper outlet in 10 miles
Not to mention the hundreds of thousands which rode a nyc subway not one week ago.

I also bet that map looks fairly similar most spring years.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 02:56:35 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 03, 2020, 02:51:00 PM
That doesn't surprise me in the least.  Just matter of factly.
Tell me how I'm wrong, don't just get pissy about it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 04, 2020, 08:50:07 AM
Lulz.  You're never wrong OAM.  Never, ever.

Continue on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 04, 2020, 10:08:07 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 03, 2020, 08:10:16 PM
not believing this a tall
many of the green areas out west, there isn't a grocery store or toilet paper outlet in 10 miles
Here's the story

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/02/us/coronavirus-social-distancing.html

The map is when "average miles traveled per day" dropped below 2.

It's aggregate. So if some people still have to go to an office, or they have to drive 6 miles to the grocery store, but most people comply with the stay at home order and the one who drives to the grocery store only does it once a week and combines it with all their other weekly errands instead of going out every day, the average can come down even if you live more than 2 miles from the store.

As mentioned, my wife has to with every day and her office is 12 miles away. So our average, as a couple, is well over 2 miles per day. But our average is far lower than it typically would be, because outside of the necessary trips we've cut out the unnecessary ones.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 10:11:09 AM
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections (https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections)

Projections of when COVID will peak in the US (midmonth).  The height of the peak is subject to ... um, some uncertainty.

It could be quite bad, really bad, really really bad, or historically awful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 04, 2020, 10:18:11 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 03, 2020, 08:11:46 PM
It is unreal. And it's unreal how many of them there actually are with that sort of money. Very few people if any should honestly have that kind of money. Sad thing is most of the people with that kind of money in this country now do nothing to actually earn it through creating new and innovating products. Jeff Bezos, Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Steve Jobs- guys like that are incredibly rare birds. 
And the congregation says Amen.Turns out this guy hasn't been providing masks,gloves,disinfectant,etc.Stuff his conglomerate handles on a mammoth scale.Some employees brought this to light and were fired,then the company has it's PR dept circle the wagons in damage control to discredit a couple of employees concerns.Ya know when you have 100 billion and change you can buy a headline or two.Maybe your own paper/website.Evidently he's been getting plastered in SM - GOOD
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 10:22:14 AM
My glib definition of "wealthy" is a person who doesn't need income ever to maintain his lifestyle.  Even in Europe, they tax income like us more or less and have a VAT (sales tax) around 20% or so.  A billionaire is largely unaffected by either, or can easily dodge taxes on income, as they can here.  Sweden has more billionaires per capita than does the US.

I figure once you get to a hundred million or so, you are largely immune from taxes (other than estate taxes, and with a good planned you can largely escape those as well).  A liquid net worth of $20 million is ample as well for most folks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 10:24:32 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 10:11:09 AM
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections (https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections)

Projections of when COVID will peak in the US (midmonth).  The height of the peak is subject to ... um, some uncertainty.

It could be quite bad, really bad, really really bad, or historically awful.
There have been quite a few articles on MSM that seek to discredit the IHME model. They even cite experts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 04, 2020, 10:29:24 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 10:22:14 AM
 A liquid net worth of $20 million is ample as well for most folks.
I'll let you know when I get halfway to one
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 10:29:41 AM
All models are wrong, some models are useful.  I don't know of a better model even if this one is off.

I dashed out to Kroger, they are OUT of the usual stuff that comes from Central America, out.  They were running low on other stuff as well.  This was during the hour reserved for old folks and most shoppers were 30ish.

About half were wearing masks or scarves of some sort.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 04, 2020, 10:30:05 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/3LTqqeA.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 10:30:56 AM
Most of these billionaires of course have most of their wealth "tied up" in stock etc.  Few have it in liquid form.  Some could sell enough stock to have it liquid if they wanted without causing the value of their holdings to collapse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 04, 2020, 10:38:55 AM
CD wish I knew all this stuff - at like 10yrs old.Priorities like football,baseball,music,girls,cars,work got in the way.But the good news is my goal of running out of money and breath at the same time appears on course,hopefully
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 10:41:15 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 10:29:41 AM
All models are wrong, some models are useful.  I don't know of a better model even if this one is off.

I dashed out to Kroger, they are OUT of the usual stuff that comes from Central America, out.  They were running low on other stuff as well.  This was during the hour reserved for old folks and most shoppers were 30ish.

About half were wearing masks or scarves of some sort.
I just found it amusing that the papers like WaPo and NYT went out of their way to find experts to dispute the (very worst case) model that the White House Task Force chose to adapt.

This, after publishing article after article blasting the White House Task Force for downplaying the whole thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 04, 2020, 10:57:47 AM
Everybody playing politics with lives in the balance.  Same as it ever was I suppose.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 11:44:07 AM
Yeah, some things never change in that regard. "We" just need to have the ability to see through it all.

People criticize this and condemn that constantly. WRT this virus, it's all so premature. There is no need to endlessly comment now, let alone judge.

History will judge. That's what history does.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 11:59:40 AM
Yes, there will be time to review what happened and note where "we" should have done better, that is necessary.  Right now, everything is in flux and too much is uncertain and unclear.  If we focus more on what to do NOW and less on what should have been done THEN, we probably are better off collectively.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 04, 2020, 01:15:22 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 10:41:15 AM
I just found it amusing that the papers like WaPo and NYT went out of their way to find experts to dispute the (very worst case) model that the White House Task Force chose to adapt.

This, after publishing article after article blasting the White House Task Force for downplaying the whole thing.
That’s their gig. They were downplaying it from the very beginning and even called the ban on incoming Chyna travel both racist and an overreaction but are now quick to say of course that things weren’t done fast enough.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 04, 2020, 01:21:17 PM
Lots of lessons to be learned here.  Hopefully we can apply them appropriately.

I believe I said it before on this board, I think we're actually lucky that this virus isn't more deadly than it is.  It's allowing us to pressure-test our emergency response capability, and we're finding that we have a LOT of gaps.

If this virus were as communicable as it currently is, but as deadly as ebola or something like that, we'd be in EXTREMELY bad shape.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 01:34:07 PM
Never thought it was possible, but it appears a YouTuber might’ve just cracked the coronavirus origin case. This guy is an American that has lived in China for the last 10+ years and worked as an English teacher/translator and speaks, reads and writes Mandarin. He even married a Chinese woman and lived in China with her family for years.

Everyone should watch this video. Makes a very compelling case that this thing happened accidentally in a lab and the damn CCP covered it up. CCP is even more at fault than I thought.


https://youtu.be/bpQFCcSI0pU
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 04, 2020, 01:36:15 PM
Matt Painter's agent, Buddy Baker, lost both of his parents last Sunday to COVID-19 complications apparently just minutes apart. 

https://www.si.com/college/purdue/basketball/sports-agent-buddy-baker-parents-die-covid-19 (https://www.si.com/college/purdue/basketball/sports-agent-buddy-baker-parents-die-covid-19)

They'd been married 51 years, and apparently both were in good health before this struck.

Very sad...

Also heard that here in California, it's been detected in two different assisted living facilities in Long Beach. Hopefully they caught it before it's going to spread, but I doubt it the way this thing has been going. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 01:38:32 PM
Everything I've read from scientists says this does not have any of the hallmarks of a human engineered virus.  Every "rumor" from nonscientists (nearly) says they think it was bioengineered.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 04, 2020, 01:39:29 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 10:24:32 AM
There have been quite a few articles on MSM that seek to discredit the IHME model. They even cite experts.
Discredit how, that it's too conservative or that it's overstating the numbers?

I personally think their numbers are low. Partly because it assumes we'll have national social distancing in place through the end of May--and presumably that people follow them--and I think there are a lot of places in this country where people are being morons about this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 01:46:31 PM
People are being morons?  Come on, how  can that be possible?  When did you discover this?

Ten percent never get the word.  I would bet ten percent of the US population has not heard anything about the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 01:53:10 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 01:38:32 PM
Everything I've read from scientists says this does not have any of the hallmarks of a human engineered virus.  Every "rumor" from nonscientists (nearly) says they think it was bioengineered.
Watch the video. The guy uses nothing but Chinese govt postings and sources to come to his convulsions. Not one time did I imply or say it was human engineered. He doesn’t either in this video. 

The infectious disease lab in Wuhan was doing experiments on bats. Someone at that lab accidentally contaminated herself with fluids from a bat that carried this coronavirus. She is thought to have been patient zero. Everything about her has been scrubbed from govt websites and all articles about her have been scrubbed from the Chinese internet too. It’s a fascinating video that makes a compelling case. Everyone should watch.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 04, 2020, 01:56:46 PM
Thanx MDoT
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 01:59:22 PM
I'm not going to watch some ten minute video that starts out the way that one does.  Cut to the chase.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 04, 2020, 02:01:42 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 01:53:10 PM
Watch the video. The guy uses nothing but Chinese govt postings and sources to come to his convulsions. Not one time did I imply or say it was human engineered. He doesn’t either in this video.

The infectious disease lab in Wuhan was doing experiments on bats. Someone at that lab accidentally contaminated herself with fluids from a bat that carried this coronavirus. She is thought to have been patient zero. Everything about her has been scrubbed from govt websites and all articles about her have been scrubbed from the Chinese internet too. It’s a fascinating video that makes a compelling case. Everyone should watch. 
Now, not to say this isn't true, but sometimes these things are the lack of evidence used to make belief in a theory STRONGER for its adherents...

"Wait, I can't find anything on this lady. It's almost like she never existed at all."

"Exactly, man, the CCP is covering her up so well that they've removed every trace of her past!" 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 04, 2020, 02:08:28 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 01:46:31 PM
People are being morons?  Come on, how  can that be possible?  When did you discover this?

Ten percent never get the word.  I would bet ten percent of the US population has not heard anything about the virus.
Seriously Clark.If they live in the woodsor on the streets 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 04, 2020, 02:10:25 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 04, 2020, 02:01:42 PM
Now, not to say this isn't true, but sometimes these things are the lack of evidence used to make belief in a theory STRONGER for its adherents...

"Wait, I can't find anything on this lady. It's almost like she never existed at all."

"Exactly, man, the CCP is covering her up so well that they've removed every trace of her past!"
He brought up a good point they could catch her out and about or in this case where ever she is quarantined
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 02:14:54 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 04, 2020, 02:01:42 PM
Now, not to say this isn't true, but sometimes these things are the lack of evidence used to make belief in a theory STRONGER for its adherents...

"Wait, I can't find anything on this lady. It's almost like she never existed at all."

"Exactly, man, the CCP is covering her up so well that they've removed every trace of her past!"
Watch the video. Everyone that currently works at the lab or used to work at the lab- still has their picture and profile up. Everyone except for one woman. 

The government labs own website posted job openings for projects researching new coronavirus in bats in November and then posted another job opening in December saying they’ve discovered a terrible new virus that’s transmissible to humans. 

And another researcher who worked at the lab released a paper he wasn’t suppose to but did anyway- which the CCP took down- but thankfully someone saved it- saying that researchers at the lab were infected with a new coronavirus from bats after being exposed to fluids and self quarantined for 14 days before returning to work. 

You are insanely naive if you think the CCP isn’t covering this entire thing up. Go ahead and trust the Chinese Communist Party’s propoganda if you wish. I for one don’t. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 04, 2020, 02:18:26 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 02:14:54 PM
Watch the video. Everyone that currently works at the lab or used to work at the lab- still has their picture and profile up. Everyone except for one woman.
I kind of got the idea the professor lady isn't around anymore either
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 02:21:12 PM
IHME says 23 days for AZ to peak.

29 for Florida.

16 for Illinois.

15 for Indiana.

23 for Wisconsin.

15 or Ohio.

5 for Michigan.

5 for New York.

4 for New Jersey.

11 for Connecticut.

32 for Texas.


The numbers out of the NE, and particularly NY, are about to get staggering.

Arizona and Florida are projected to have enough beds. Illinois, Minnesota and Wisconsin are projected to have a surplus. Ohio, Texas and California too have massive surpluses.

New York is woefully short on beds, with far less than Illinois and WAY far less than Ohio, California and Texas.

How can a state that went through 9/11 be so woefully underprepared for this? How do Illinois and Ohio have more physical beds than New York?? and Someone needs to ask the governor for an explanation. It's inexcusable. In the meantime, that other Navy hospital ship sitting in California needs to make a beeline for NYC. Like, today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 02:23:47 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 04, 2020, 01:29:24 PM

I can't imagine why the first state to require government approval to build new healthcare capacity would have a shortage... That makes no sense when you know that good central planning is the best way to ensure we have enough goods and services for all...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Certificate_of_need (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Certificate_of_need)
From the other thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 02:24:43 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 01:12:40 PM

You don't need beds for dead bodies.
Nope, but you need beds to keep people from being dead bodies.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 02:25:52 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 01:45:17 PM

When the wife had her hip surgery (Nov.), she stayed ON at the hospital.  She had almost the entire 8th floor to herself, I actually did not see another room with a patient in it.  She had a private room (with a great view).  This was the orthopedic floor.  When I'd go down to the cafeteria they didn't seem that crowded.  (They had a McDonald's in the cafeteria area.)  I can see at times hospitals might over build, but Georgia also has the CON regulation.

We're hurting right now because Grady the largest in the state had a water leak that apparently wiped out three floors of ICUs.  Some water leak.  The mayor said all four major hospitals here are using the  full ICU capacity (not beds).

The hospitals today are the size of small colleges.


That's bad news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on April 04, 2020, 02:28:10 PM
What's that ship in NYC harbor doing now?  Admittedly I dont have an hourly update but noticed they have one w beds there now?  Musings of red tape related to finding your way on board was the gist of the story.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 02:29:40 PM
Quote from: MarqHusker on April 04, 2020, 02:28:10 PM
What's that ship in NYC harbor doing now?  Admittedly I dont have an hourly update but noticed they have one w beds there now?  Musings of red tape related to finding your way on board was the gist of the story.
You're only going to read about the bad news WRT that ship right now. It will be needed and there will be good news about it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 02:48:32 PM
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-china-trail-leading-back-to-wuhan-labs/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 03:24:50 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 02:24:43 PM
Nope, but you need beds to keep people from being dead bodies.



Yes, but I'm saying, on 9/11, those 3,000 people were dead on the spot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 03:25:25 PM
National Review articles.  
Sure, why not.  :banghead:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 03:43:25 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 03:24:50 PM
Yes, but I'm saying, on 9/11, those 3,000 people were dead on the spot.
Correct, but what if they weren't? Nobody has thought of this? I mean, you and I couldn't have imagined this happening, but people get paid to think about these things.

People think that a densely populated city with more residents than most states should have more hospital beds than those states, no? The metro area of NYC just inside the State is about 20 Million people. Ohio has 12 million and more beds. Illinois has 12 million and more beds.

I was shocked to see those numbers. I had to do my own research to find out because nobody is talking about it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 04, 2020, 03:49:37 PM
Lack of planning on their part does not constitute an emergancy on our part..At least NYC can float hospital ships down their way.What if the Virus goes viral in those other places?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 03:59:34 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 04, 2020, 08:50:07 AM
Lulz.  You're never wrong OAM.  Never, ever.

Continue on.
Maybe this is why I'm confident.  Whenever I plainly ask for reasoning behind an argument, you just jump ship.  You don't get to bitch about my arrogance if you're never going to provide reasoning when we're at odds.  
.
Don't be the coward behind his keyboard.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 04, 2020, 03:59:49 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 02:48:32 PM
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-china-trail-leading-back-to-wuhan-labs/
And maybe this will lead back to a lab. And the CCP will end up with a PR problem for covering it up.

And then where does it go? Closing the barn door after the horse is out doesn't help the world. And I don't think we're going to go to war over it and kill a couple million more people. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 04:00:25 PM
The only state close to NY with extra bed capacity is PA, which has about double what is projected there. Maybe some patients can be transported if need be. NY, NJ, CT, RI and MA are all short, with NY being in the worst shape. 

I'm not saying they should have 80,000 beds. I'm saying they should have more than Ohio.

Alabama is next in line for being in the worst shape here, with 28K projected needs versus 5700 beds available.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 04:01:17 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 04, 2020, 03:59:49 PM
And maybe this will lead back to a lab. And the CCP will end up with a PR problem for covering it up.

And then where does it go? Closing the barn door after the horse is out doesn't help the world. And I don't think we're going to go to war over it and kill a couple million more people.
WW3
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 04:01:20 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 03:43:25 PM
Correct, but what if they weren't? Nobody has thought of this? I mean, you and I couldn't have imagined this happening, but people get paid to think about these things.

People think that a densely populated city with more residents than most states should have more hospital beds than those states, no? The metro area of NYC just inside the State is about 20 Million people. Ohio has 12 million and more beds. Illinois has 12 million and more beds.

I was shocked to see those numbers. I had to do my own research to find out because nobody is talking about it.
Where are they supposed to put all of the long-term beds they need?  A new skyscraper?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 04:02:21 PM
I think "we" only have two hospital ships.

https://www.military.com/military-life/everything-you-need-know-about-navys-hospital-ships.html (https://www.military.com/military-life/everything-you-need-know-about-navys-hospital-ships.html)

One did deploy yo NYC after 9/11.  There were injured casualties in that event of course.  Not everyone was killed.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 04:03:00 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 04, 2020, 03:59:49 PM
And maybe this will lead back to a lab. And the CCP will end up with a PR problem for covering it up.

And then where does it go? Closing the barn door after the horse is out doesn't help the world. And I don't think we're going to go to war over it and kill a couple million more people.
I don't think China can genuinely have any kind of PR problem.
.
Its citizens: don't like it, shut up or you're dead.
Other countries (including us): don't like it, okay, we'll stop sending you all of the things you need to exist.
.
China can shrug anything off.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 04:03:55 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 04:00:25 PM

Alabama is next in line for being in the worst shape here, with 28K projected needs versus 5700 beds available.
No, no, they'll be fine.  They're praying the virus away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 04:04:05 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 04:01:20 PM
Where are they supposed to put all of the long-term beds they need?  A new skyscraper? 
They would not need to be on Manhattan obviously, or even within one of the five Bs.  There is vacant land within a 5 mile radius, and in fact, it's possible NJ has capacity for NYC, I don't know that.  Just looking at NYC capacity COULD be misleading if ample hospital capacity is just across a line.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 04:05:22 PM
China might learn it has a PR issue after this resolves, but I tend to think humans go back to doing what was most comfortable.

You get a heart attack and survive and then for a month you try and quit smoking and eating better, and 6 months later you figure "I liked my old lifestyle better."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 04:05:26 PM
Right, they'd need a circle of satelitte hospitals for emergencies.  But what are those hospitals doing the other 99.9% of the time?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 04, 2020, 04:06:09 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 04:01:17 PM
WW3
Leave them alone maybe Putin will go over the wall
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 04:10:57 PM
I presume there is some idea ration of hospital beds to population and someone knows it.  If NY State is way off that, there could be a problem.

Florida would need more I presume, and maybe AZ.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 04:12:40 PM
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/rankings-and-ratings/10-states-with-the-fewest-community-hospital-beds-per-1-000-population.html (https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/rankings-and-ratings/10-states-with-the-fewest-community-hospital-beds-per-1-000-population.html)

Below are the 10 states with the fewest staffed hospital beds at community hospitals per 1,000 population, based on data from the 1999-2018 AHA Annual Survey and population data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

1. Oregon: 1.6
2. Washington: 1.7
3. New Mexico: 1.8
4. Utah: 1.8
5. California: 1.8
6. Colorado: 1.9
7. Maryland: 1.9
8. Arizona: 1.9
9: Idaho: 1.9
10. Hawaii: 1.9

https://www.statista.com/statistics/184546/community-hospital-beds-per-1000-population-in-the-us/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/184546/community-hospital-beds-per-1000-population-in-the-us/)



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 04:14:03 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 04:04:05 PM
They would not need to be on Manhattan obviously, or even within one of the five Bs.  There is vacant land within a 5 mile radius, and in fact, it's possible NJ has capacity for NYC, I don't know that.  Just looking at NYC capacity COULD be misleading if ample hospital capacity is just across a line.
NJ is short, with a projected need of 9600 versus a bed count of 7800.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 04, 2020, 04:14:31 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 04:03:55 PM
No, no, they'll be fine.  They're praying the virus away.
Ya know Cal Berkely did a blind test i forget how long.2Seperate hospital groups one was prayed for one was not.The group doted over consistently got better.There just may be something to be said for good vibes
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 04:17:03 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 04:05:26 PM
Right, they'd need a circle of satelitte hospitals for emergencies.  But what are those hospitals doing the other 99.9% of the time? 
You are grossly missing the point here:

Ohio has more beds than New York. I can't put it more simple terms than that.


Your Alabama comment was in very poor taste.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 04:18:18 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 04:10:57 PM
I presume there is some idea ration of hospital beds to population and someone knows it.  If NY State is way off that, there could be a problem.

Florida would need more I presume, and maybe AZ.


Florida and Arizona have enough beds, based on the IHME projections.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 04:27:36 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 04:17:03 PM
You are grossly missing the point here:

Ohio has more beds than New York. I can't put it more simple terms than that.


Your Alabama comment was in very poor taste.
Ohio also has SPACE.  NYC does not.
.
My Alabama comment is only in poor taste if the prayer doesn't work.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 04:28:09 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 04:18:18 PM
Florida and Arizona have enough beds, based on the IHME projections.
FL got to export a lot of their infected humans when they went back home from spring break.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 04, 2020, 04:28:39 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 04:17:03 PM
You are grossly missing the point here:

Ohio has more beds than New York. I can't put it more simple terms than that.


Your Alabama comment was in very poor taste.
As much money the Hospitals collects there is no excuse for that shortage.I have 80% coverage and I'm still paying for a few short stays.Maybe the wonks shouldn't be pocketing all the profits.But those Ohio Beds need to stay put,people like me have paid for them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 04, 2020, 04:32:54 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 04:27:36 PM
Ohio also has SPACE.  NYC does not.
.
My Alabama comment is only in poor taste if the prayer doesn't work. 
I don't imagine when your car slides off a cliff or you're having a massive that you are going to yell "F-YOU GOD"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 04:37:34 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 04:27:36 PM
Ohio also has SPACE.  NYC does not.
.
My Alabama comment is only in poor taste if the prayer doesn't work. 
There is plenty of cheap land in NY state not far from the city. 

And as much as I dislike the religious right and the Bible Belt, your comment was in poor taste. People are dying in this country and many more are going to die still. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 04:43:50 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 04:03:00 PM
I don't think China can genuinely have any kind of PR problem.
.
Its citizens: don't like it, shut up or you're dead.
Other countries (including us): don't like it, okay, we'll stop sending you all of the things you need to exist.
.
China can shrug anything off.
This isn’t true. At all. The Chinese economy has been tanking for months because of this. This will be by the worst economy China has seen since the ‘80s when off-shoring began and foreign investment began pouring into their country in droves and their economy exploded into the stratosphere.

China is in the midst of a massive PR problem and they are doing everything they can to spin the narrative and save face.

The U.K. is going to terminate its deal with Huawei to build its new 5G networks over this. Other EU countries are talking about doing the same.

US multinationals are expediting their exit strategies to pull production out of China and US lawmakers are openly talking about going after China and moving production of essential things like pharmaceuticals and medical equipment back to US soil permanently.

This will be devastating for China and it’ll accelerate the rise of Mexico as the western worlds next low cost manufacturing hub.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 04:45:26 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 04:27:36 PM
Ohio also has SPACE.  NYC does not.
.
 
There is plenty of space in an around New York.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 04:46:33 PM
Yup, Thailand and Vietnam and Taiwan will benefit from this, to the extent they have not already.  The supply chain analysis is going to change for a lot of companies.  At least for a while.  China might undercut everyone and horn back in over time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 04:47:52 PM
How expensive would it be to have more hospital ships  on standby?  They would be spartan crewed most of the time, going out on occasion for practice and drills, and when an emergency hits, MDs are called in from reserves for spot treatment as needed.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 04, 2020, 04:49:54 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 04:46:33 PM
 China might undercut everyone and horn back in over time.
That might be the only card they have left to play.That or War
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 04:55:04 PM
Who would China invade if they resorted to war?  Vietnam?  Taiwan?  Thailand?  Not really an ideal scenario for them.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 04:56:18 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 04:46:33 PM
Yup, Thailand and Vietnam and Taiwan will benefit from this, to the extent they have not already.  The supply chain analysis is going to change for a lot of companies.  At least for a while.  China might undercut everyone and horn back in over time.
Not sure that China can horn back in. The exit from the big US/Euro/UK multinationals was already underway.  

Property values have gone up so much, wages in China have risen so much over the past 30 years, and pollution had gotten so bad that the government finally had to step in and set up some form of environmental regulations- that those three things combined with the Trump China tariffs we’re already making it ever more expensive to produce there that companies were already either leaving or planning to leave. All this coronavirus bullshit did was just expedite all of their plans to pull out. All that’s going to happen is they are all just going to pull out a lot faster than planned. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 04, 2020, 04:59:02 PM
847- you are asking the right questions. It irritates some because it doesn’t fit a political narrative. 

Look, I work in a midsize to small community bank. I am responsible for two lines of business so only about 100 people. We were prepared for this in terms of having the equipment the processes the procedures and protocols to work from home very quickly. If we were not I would’ve lost my job very quickly. Why? Because we practiced for this type of situation. That’s right a pandemic, A hurricane, civil unrest etc.

Please don’t tell me that any major hospital in this country is not absolutely required to have a pandemic plan which includes all of the equipment, masks, ventilators, etc.  Just buy the evidence you’ve presented badge, it proves that some were very well prepared for this and some are not. In looking at this from the “what went wrong standpoint and “it starts right there in the local hospitals in the local governments and not at the top as some would have you believe. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 04:59:47 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 04:55:04 PM
Who would China invade if they resorted to war?  Vietnam?  Taiwan?  Thailand?  Not really an ideal scenario for them. 
They know this. They have no means to get their massive Army anywhere.

On offense, I think you'd have to start by destroying their resources in the South China Sea. I'm sure the other countries around there would lend a hand.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 05:04:45 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 04:59:47 PM
They know this. They have no means to get their massive Army anywhere.

On offense, I think you'd have to start by destroying their resources in the South China Sea. I'm sure the other countries around there would lend a hand.
Maybe they’d try to invade Australia? Australian politicians by the way are just as pissed off at China as US, EU, U.K. politicians are. Probably more actually.

I’m with you, first plan of attack would be to destroy all the man made islands and military bases they’ve built up in the South China Sea.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 05:07:09 PM
China has next to zero ability to "project power".  Sending troops somewhere across water is difficult, basically only the US can manage this at any decent scale.

Anyone else who tried would be in trouble on logistics aside from moving enough troops.  GB and France can move about a brigade sized unit if we help.

This is the main reason the US spends so much on "defense".
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 05:08:38 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 04:43:50 PM
This isn’t true. At all. The Chinese economy has been tanking for months because of this. This will be by the worst economy China has seen since the ‘80s when off-shoring began and foreign investment began pouring into their country in droves and their economy exploded into the stratosphere.

China is in the midst of a massive PR problem and they are doing everything they can to spin the narrative and save face.

The U.K. is going to terminate its deal with Huawei to build its new 5G networks over this. Other EU countries are talking about doing the same.

US multinationals are expediting their exit strategies to pull production out of China and US lawmakers are openly talking about going after China and moving production of essential things like pharmaceuticals and medical equipment back to US soil permanently.

This will be devastating for China and it’ll accelerate the rise of Mexico as the western worlds next low cost manufacturing hub.
I think you're ignoring the fact that China is going to own about 99 cents of every new dollar made in the middle east and Africa in the next 20-50 years.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 05:10:28 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 04, 2020, 04:59:02 PM
. In looking at this from the “what went wrong standpoint and “it starts right there in the local hospitals in the local governments and not at the top as some would have you believe.
It's not either/or.  Stop that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 05:10:54 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 05:08:38 PM
I think you're ignoring the fact that China is going to own about 99 cents of every new dollar made in the middle east and Africa in the next 20-50 years. 
I don't understand this.  If a new dollar is made in the Middle East, why wouldn't the ME country own it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 05:12:52 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 04:37:34 PM
 People are dying in this country and many more are going to die still.
I know that.  Tell them that.  Tell the pastors insisting on congregating their flocks, jeopardizing their lives.  
.
risking people's lives > posting ideas in poor taste
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 05:15:34 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 04:55:04 PM
Who would China invade if they resorted to war?  Vietnam?  Taiwan?  Thailand?  Not really an ideal scenario for them. 
This is an antiquated idea of what war would be in 2020 and beyond.  
.
It'd mostly be computer-executed.  Physically, it would probably simply look like bombing major targets and an email that says, "Do what we tell you to and we'll stop."
Invading just produces an albatross of maintenance and holding people under your thumb.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 05:16:55 PM
This is my favorite, though.  When the thread about a virus devolves into "let's go to war with China."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 05:18:20 PM
https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/ (https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/)

This is a map updated every few minutes if anyone is interested (and not scared of CNN etc.)  The states with the worst ratios of known infected to 100K people are New York, New Jersey, Louisiana, and Michigan.  NY and NJ of course share a border.

CA is doing pretty well by this metric.  I realize more may be infected than is shown in these figures.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 05:19:38 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 05:15:34 PM
This is an antiquated idea of what war would be in 2020 and beyond. 
.
It'd mostly be computer-executed.  Physically, it would probably simply look like bombing major targets and an email that says, "Do what we tell you to and we'll stop."
Invading just produces an albatross of maintenance and holding people under your thumb. 

Are you at all familiar with China's bombing capabilities?

Do you mean bombing in reality, with planes, or even missiles?  Nope.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 05:20:02 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 05:16:55 PM
This is my favorite, though.  When the thread about a virus devolves into "let's go to war with China."

I have not seen someone suggesting that as an option, have you?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 04, 2020, 05:25:41 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 05:20:02 PM
I have not seen someone suggesting that as an option, have you?
Two people, specifically. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 04, 2020, 05:26:27 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 05:10:28 PM
It's not either/or.  Stop that.
It STARTS right there.  Work your way up.   Local county , state and federal...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 05:28:54 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 04, 2020, 05:25:41 PM
Two people, specifically.
I interpreted those posts as what we would do IF China attacked someone else militarily.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 04, 2020, 05:39:43 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 03:59:34 PM
Maybe this is why I'm confident.  Whenever I plainly ask for reasoning behind an argument, you just jump ship.  You don't get to bitch about my arrogance if you're never going to provide reasoning when we're at odds. 
.
Don't be the coward behind his keyboard. 

LMAO.  So rich coming from you, the absolute king of making snide comments and then hiding behind your keyboard.

And I don't even know what your stance is, aside from being generally bigoted toward people that you feel are beneath you.

So you tell me what your position is, because I don't really know.  And if you make a really smart point, I might actually agree with you. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 05:43:13 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 05:28:54 PM
I interpreted those posts as what we would do IF China attacked someone else militarily.
I say attack China. Right now. I want the US to declare war. Shift resources away from the ME and go kick the ever loving shit out of China. Today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 04, 2020, 05:46:44 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 05:20:02 PM
I have not seen someone suggesting that as an option, have you?
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 04, 2020, 05:25:41 PM
Two people, specifically.

Yeah, actually, I've definitely seen that suggested here.

My response was, we're not in a military war with China.  And I'll add, we won't be in the future, unless we do something weird to provoke it.

Honestly there's no need for that, it's not where the battles will be fought and won... or lost.

And we DO have the power to change it and start fighting back in similar terms.  We have nearly ALL the power to do so.  

But I'm not certain we have the will for it, that's for sure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 05:49:42 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 04, 2020, 05:25:41 PM
Two people, specifically.
I would be one. I believe they started this war we are fighting right now, inside our borders. I also believe they wouldn't hesitate to do it again. Whether this thing was invented in a lab, spread in a lab, caused by eating bat shit.. that doesn't matter as much as the coverup. AGAIN:


https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152


Look, there are 1.4 billion very nice people in China. The CCP would sacrifice every damn one of them if it meant staying in power.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 05:51:28 PM
OK, then.  I'm am strongly against any military action against China, FWIW.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 05:55:52 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 05:51:28 PM
OK, then.  I'm am strongly against any military action against China, FWIW.


I think we have to continue the economic warfare that the president was waging, and winning. This virus is the retaliation, I believe, for that economic warfare.

China was at its knees, backed into a corner. Now they have narrowed the economic gap, temporarily I believe, by bringing ours down.

Now, the China Sea. Lots of countries around there would like to see China stopped. I'd like to see the US and its Allies help make that happen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 05:58:18 PM
FWIW, the scientific analysis I've seen on COVID shows it to be naturally occurring.  I probably lean to believing science perhaps more than many.  Bioengineering leaves signs that are hard to miss, as I understand it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 05:59:44 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 04, 2020, 05:39:43 PM
LMAO.  So rich coming from you, the absolute king of making snide comments and then hiding behind your keyboard.

And I don't even know what your stance is, aside from being generally bigoted toward people that you feel are beneath you.

So you tell me what your position is, because I don't really know.  And if you make a really smart point, I might actually agree with you.
Okay, so step by step...
1 - the map was mostly red in the south
2 - the south is mostly conservatives
3 - the vast majority of those saying Covid-19 was a hoax were conservatives
.
Thus, my comment.  
So my further conjecture would be that thinking it was a hoax would delay preventative measures and delaying preventative measures yields more deaths.
.
But 1,2, and 3 above are factual.  Notice the word "mostly" being used.  What's wrong with any of it?  Why does any of this cause you to get smarmy and butthurt?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 06:03:25 PM
The southern states thus far are doing pretty well except for LA, as I noted.

Some of this is because of fewer dense urban centers of course.

Some of this is probably because it got here later.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 04, 2020, 06:04:28 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 04, 2020, 10:30:05 AM
[img width=495.98 height=500]https://i.imgur.com/3LTqqeA.png[/img]
Mike Leach passed this along on Twitter and got roasted.  The noose makes it racist.  ~???
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 06:06:16 PM
If you really wanted to start a war in China, the U.S. could make Taiwan into another South Korea.  That would neceessitate a major retaliation from them.  It'd be like their Cuban missile crisis. 
.
Now, set aside how war is bad and all the deaths would be terrible, but aren't you interested in seeing the U.S. in a war with an established country to see just how far ahead of everyone we are?  Part of our bloated defense budget makes it so we're so far ahead of everyone else, we're like Superman in a china shop (no pun intended).  The first Gulf War was easily won with kid gloves.  Battling Al Queda and ISIS has been like going through a kid's hair with a lice comb.
.
Who would step up to the plate and declare war on us, country vs country?  China is too smart to do that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 04, 2020, 06:07:34 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 05:59:44 PM
Okay, so step by step...
1 - the map was mostly red in the south
2 - the south is mostly conservatives
3 - the vast majority of those saying Covid-19 was a hoax were conservatives
.
Thus, my comment. 
So my further conjecture would be that thinking it was a hoax would delay preventative measures and delaying preventative measures yields more deaths.
.
But 1,2, and 3 above are factual.  Notice the word "mostly" being used.  What's wrong with any of it?  Why does any of this cause you to get smarmy and butthurt? 


Do you not see ANY other reason why people in those regions would need to continue traveling?  I'm looking for factual stuff, not your supposition of whether or not they are conservative, whether or not they're taking this seriously.  Can you think of ANY other reasons? 

I'll give you a hint, I already posted a map with another logical, potential explanation for it.

So you have yet to make a SMART point, just your typical bigotry.  You failed, again.  Im not smarmy, I'm not butthurt, I'm asking for logic and reason.  You've failed to use that and provided only conjecture.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 04, 2020, 06:09:03 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 06:03:25 PM
The southern states thus far are doing pretty well except for LA, as I noted.

Some of this is because of fewer dense urban centers of course.

Some of this is probably because it got here later.

Shhhhh, don't tell bigots this news.  It doesn't correspond to their carefully curated world views!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 06:09:39 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 04, 2020, 06:04:28 PM
Mike Leach passed this along on Twitter and got roasted.  The noose makes it racist.  ~???
Ugh.  
It's a marriage joke, not a lynching joke.  FFS  
Yes, the far left is as bad as the far right, all extremes are bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 06:10:34 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 04, 2020, 06:07:34 PM

So you have yet to make a SMART point, just your typical bigotry.  You failed, again.  Im not smarmy, I'm not butthurt, I'm asking for logic and reason.  You've failed to use that and provided only conjecture.
So which is untrue?  1, 2, or 3?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 06:12:38 PM
The core reason we spend so much on "defense" is the ability to project power.  Look at how many fleet aircraft carriers the rest of the world has.  Zero.

We have ten.  Those are meant to protect sea lanes so we can "safely" ship men and supplies across oceans.  No other country can do that.  It's very expensive to retain that capability.  If we had fewer defense agreements, we would be able to make do with a lot less protecting ONLY US direct interests.

But, the best war is one avoided.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 06:12:46 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 05:58:18 PM
FWIW, the scientific analysis I've seen on COVID shows it to be naturally occurring.  I probably lean to believing science perhaps more than many.  Bioengineering leaves signs that are hard to miss, as I understand it.
They are using powers of deduction and making highly educated assumptions that it wasn’t bio-engineered. And I agree with those assumptions. 

This more than likely was an accidental contamination in an infectious disease lab that studies diseases and how to fight them, and then from there it spread like wildfire. And instead of trying to take responsibility and try to prevent it from spreading, the CCP tried lying and intimidating whistleblowers or flat out making whistleblowers just disappear in order to cover it up. 

Many studies were done showing that the CCP could’ve nipped this thing in the butt and could’ve halted the spread by 95% if they had acted immediately instead of tried covering it up for weeks and weeks before they acknowledged it and tried to do something about it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 06:13:25 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 06:09:39 PM
Yes, the far left is as bad as the far right, all extremes are bad.
That's kind of an extreme point of view, no?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 06:15:26 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 06:03:25 PM
The southern states thus far are doing pretty well except for LA, as I noted.

Some of this is because of fewer dense urban centers of course.

Some of this is probably because it got here later.
Alabama is in for a world of hurt.


Resources needed for COVID-19 patients on peak date
All beds needed
27,498beds

All beds available
5,743beds

Bed shortage
21,755beds
ICU beds needed
4,382beds

ICU beds available
474beds

ICU bed shortage
3,908beds
Invasive ventilators needed
3,504ventilators
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 06:17:39 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 06:12:38 PM
The core reason we spend so much on "defense" is the ability to project power.  Look at how many fleet aircraft carriers the rest of the world has.  Zero.

We have ten.  Those are meant to protect sea lanes so we can "safely" ship men and supplies across oceans.  No other country can do that.  It's very expensive to retain that capability.  If we had fewer defense agreements, we would be able to make do with a lot less protecting ONLY US direct interests.

But, the best war is one avoided.
Yeah, that's nice. 
I happen to think there's no defending the cost of our military industrial complex.  $600 billion+ annually.  55% of our discrectonary budget. 
More than the next, what, 13 countries combined.  12 of which are friendly. 
.
It's indefensible.  But you tried.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 06:18:30 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 06:15:26 PM
Alabama is in for a world of hurt.


Why is that?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 06:22:21 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 06:17:39 PM
Yeah, that's nice. 
I happen to think there's no defending the cost of our military industrial complex.  $600 billion+ annually.  55% of our discrectonary budget. 
More than the next, what, 13 countries combined.  12 of which are friendly. 
.
It's indefensible.  But you tried.
I was not defending it at all.  An explanation is not a defense.  And the cost is closer to $800 billion a year.  I personally think it is too high, but I also think our overseas commitments are too massive.  You can't have one without the other.

We could defend the US with a lot less spending than we currently spend obviously.  The rest is to be able to defend Europe and other places where we decided we have "interests".
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 06:24:12 PM
I agree about reeling it in.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 06:26:09 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 06:17:39 PM
Yeah, that's nice. 
I happen to think there's no defending the cost of our military industrial complex.  $600 billion+ annually.  55% of our discrectonary budget. 
More than the next, what, 13 countries combined.  12 of which are friendly. 
.
It's indefensible.  But you tried.
It’s far more than $600 billion.

It’s really like a trillion and change per year when you count everything that’s not included in the DoD base budget and hidden costs like interest payments, weapons programs cost overruns, and nuclear weapons programs (DoE). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 06:26:35 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 06:18:30 PM
Why is that? 
There are many reasons.

Poor population may be one. Mass congregation in churches is for sure one. Ignorant to the severity. Lack of social distancing. It all adds up.

What these IHEM models are not showing us is demographics. That I'm really curious about.

I have some ideas from looking at maps in my own area, town by town, because I know those towns. In general, it is the wealthy towns (travel-related, no doubt) and the very poor towns that are the hardest hit. I know "who" lives where around here.

I guess I will try to do some research to drill down on the why, versus assuming that they are "conservative" or otherwise. I'll report back on what I find, if I'm able to figure out the demographics of towns down there. I have no familiarity at all with the makeup of Birmingham, for example, so it will take me some time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 04, 2020, 06:27:55 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 03:25:25 PM
National Review articles. 
Sure, why not.  :banghead:

How is this ↑ different from this? ↓

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 03:59:34 PM
Maybe this is why I'm confident.  Whenever I plainly ask for reasoning behind an argument, you just jump ship.  You don't get to bitch about my arrogance if you're never going to provide reasoning when we're at odds. 
.
Don't be the coward behind his keyboard.

You can't do drive-by shootings and then take umbrage when others do the same to you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 06:27:58 PM
The topic of race will rear its head in this discussion at some point.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 04, 2020, 06:29:15 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 06:10:34 PM
So which is untrue?  1, 2, or 3?
First you'd need to prove all of 1,2,3.  3 is going to be really really hard to prove if you remove bigotry and confirmation bias.  Actually it's impossible to prove, but there you have it.

But even if I went ahead and just agreed to #3,  your real problem is that your bigoted conjecture relies on something further-- something more than the word "hoax" (which plenty of conservative idiots piled onto), but the more general idea that it wasn't a big deal, it was something that could be put aside and ignored, which is what would result in this behavior of disregard.

That's a big problem for your bigoted conjecture, because the evidence shows that a lot of  millennials and GenZ didn't take it seriously.  And you see, a very large percentage of millennials and GenZ, are liberal.  So here's the evidence in number form because I guess that's the only way you can understand it?

1)  Millennials and GenZ continued on with their Spring Break plans despite the outbreak
2)  They licked toilet seats and other various gross public facilities in the midst of their Corona Virus challenges
3)  A majority of those that are in the Millennial and GenZ identify as, and are considered to be, "liberal."

I'll also point out that this is simply a response to you, I don't actually condemn all of the Millennials and GenZ for being grossly stupid, self-absorbed, or just plain ignorant.  That's your bigoted way of viewing things.

I recognize that people from all walks of life failed to recognize its seriousness.  I'm just pointing out a counter to your bigoted view that only Southerners that explicitly labeled it a "hoax" are the ones guilty of not taking it seriously.

Lots of people didn't take it seriously.

But more importantly than all of that, you, as someone that constantly INSISTS on everyone just looking to the math, you've completely abandoned the mathematics that show that there could possibly be another legitimate reason for people in that particular geography, to still be traveling, versus their Northeastern or Western counterparts.

That's your real failure.

I eagerly await your next bigoted response, though.  Thanks for all of the entertainment this afternoon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 04, 2020, 06:45:16 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 06:10:34 PM
So which is untrue?  1, 2, or 3?
Holy shit where do I start. The only people I heard calling this a hoax were the health commissioner of the city of New York, the mayor of New York, the Boston Globe the Washington Post and the New York Times. So you got that one completely wrong. And please don’t tell me the president said that because for actually that never came close to happening and I can prove it.
Also you may notice that the worst place in the United States and in fact the world for this virus is the epicenter of liberalism which is the north east section of the United States. Do you want to make stupid assumptions? It’s where they allow illegal immigration in sanctuary cities and people living on top of each other. Please don’t try to project your bullshit theories on the rest of us
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 04, 2020, 06:45:36 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 04:43:50 PM
This isn’t true. At all. The Chinese economy has been tanking for months because of this. This will be by the worst economy China has seen since the ‘80s when off-shoring began and foreign investment began pouring into their country in droves and their economy exploded into the stratosphere.

China is in the midst of a massive PR problem and they are doing everything they can to spin the narrative and save face.

The U.K. is going to terminate its deal with Huawei to build its new 5G networks over this. Other EU countries are talking about doing the same.

US multinationals are expediting their exit strategies to pull production out of China and US lawmakers are openly talking about going after China and moving production of essential things like pharmaceuticals and medical equipment back to US soil permanently.

This will be devastating for China and it’ll accelerate the rise of Mexico as the western worlds next low cost manufacturing hub.
I hope you are right.  It would be good to have a prosperous Mexico on our southern border.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 04, 2020, 06:47:43 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 04:45:26 PM
There is plenty of space in an around New York.
This is true.  West of the Hudson, there's much open space all the way south from West Point almost until you get to New York City.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 06:51:45 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 04, 2020, 06:47:43 PM
This is true.  West of the Hudson, there's much open space all the way south from West Point almost until you get to New York City.
Correct. For those who are interested in available properties for development, I'd say start here. I'm not doing the research here. I've got enough with Alabama.


https://www1.nyc.gov/site/planning/index.page

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 06:54:24 PM
have to share this video. It’s unreal. A female reporter is interviewing with a top official of the WHO via FaceTime and the girl asks this ASSHOLE a question about Taiwan and at first he pretends not to hear her question. She says okay I’ll just ask it again, then he says no it’s ok let’s move onto the next question. She asks him again the JACKASS hangs up on her. 

WHO is a useless chicken shit organization that needs to take China’s you know what out of its mouth. Absolutely shameful and pathetic. And this moronic WHO official is an American to boot. 

https://youtu.be/lmsqeFAlSGA
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 04, 2020, 06:54:55 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 04, 2020, 06:45:36 PM
I hope you are right.  It would be good to have a prosperous Mexico on our southern border.
I've said this for the past couple decades, ever since I became involved in high tech manufacturing.

Mexico has tremendous natural resources.  I'm not saying that helping Mexico develop would be cheap, or easy, but just imagine committing all of the resources we've dedicated to the war on drugs, or border walls, into developing the infrastructure in Mexico and other Latin American countries instead.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 04, 2020, 06:59:00 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 06:06:16 PM
If you really wanted to start a war in China, the U.S. could make Taiwan into another South Korea.  That would neceessitate a major retaliation from them.  It'd be like their Cuban missile crisis. 
.
Now, set aside how war is bad and all the deaths would be terrible, but aren't you interested in seeing the U.S. in a war with an established country to see just how far ahead of everyone we are?  Part of our bloated defense budget makes it so we're so far ahead of everyone else, we're like Superman in a china shop (no pun intended).  The first Gulf War was easily won with kid gloves.  Battling Al Queda and ISIS has been like going through a kid's hair with a lice comb.
.
Who would step up to the plate and declare war on us, country vs country?  China is too smart to do that.
Here's a chart of our bloated defense budget over the last 60 years as a percentage of GDP.  If you make it as a percentage of our federal budget, then the decline is even steeper, because the federal budget is consuming a much larger share of GDP than it has since WWII ended.

You want to find the bloat in our budget, look somewhere else.

(https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/dod_chart.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 06:59:40 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 04, 2020, 06:45:16 PM
Holy shit where do I start. The only people I heard calling this a hoax were the health commissioner of the city of New York, the mayor of New York, the Boston Globe the Washington Post and the New York Times. So you got that one completely wrong. And please don’t tell me the president said that because for actually that never came close to happening and I can prove it.
Also you may notice that the worst place in the United States and in fact the world for this virus is the epicenter of liberalism which is the north east section of the United States. Do you want to make stupid assumptions? It’s where they allow illegal immigration in sanctuary cities and people living on top of each other. Please don’t try to project your bullshit theories on the rest of us
Great post. 

Cold hard truth is NYC is a decaying shithole that’s been run into the ground for decades. I was just there last October to visit my buddy who lives and works in Manhattan. I was amazed at how disgusting and dirty and terrible it’s subway system was in comparison to a place like Paris. 

You have all these unreal private mega developments going on there for the wealthy and it’s become nothing but a playground for the wealthy and then basically kind of a dirty shithole for the regular folk. There aren’t regular people there anymore. Everyone has been priced out. A shithole 800 sq ft studio in Brooklyn will cost you like $2,000 a month. It’s insane.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 04, 2020, 07:02:22 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 06:12:38 PM
The core reason we spend so much on "defense" is the ability to project power.  Look at how many fleet aircraft carriers the rest of the world has.  Zero.

We have ten.  Those are meant to protect sea lanes so we can "safely" ship men and supplies across oceans.  No other country can do that.  It's very expensive to retain that capability.  If we had fewer defense agreements, we would be able to make do with a lot less protecting ONLY US direct interests.

But, the best war is one avoided.
Re your last point, the most expensive military establishment is the one almost-but-not-quite good enough to win the war we put it in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 04, 2020, 07:03:41 PM
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/01/29/opinion/coronavirus-


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_mCg8eWPS04


These aren’t conservatives.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 07:04:39 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 04, 2020, 06:54:55 PM
I've said this for the past couple decades, ever since I became involved in high tech manufacturing.

Mexico has tremendous natural resources.  I'm not saying that helping Mexico develop would be cheap, or easy, but just imagine committing all of the resources we've dedicated to the war on drugs, or border walls, into developing the infrastructure in Mexico and other Latin American countries instead.
It was already in the process before this coronavirus outbreak. Read article about it in Forbes not that long ago. 

I have family in manufacturing, well not really manufacturing. They don’t manufacture anything, they sell machines and parts to manufacturers and they’ve done more business in Mexico in the last 5 years than they’ve ever done and they’ve been in business for 45+ years. More and more manufacturing has slowly been moving to Mexico, and they all think this coronavirus is going to make it happen faster.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 04, 2020, 07:06:37 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 06:17:39 PM
Yeah, that's nice. 
I happen to think there's no defending the cost of our military industrial complex.  $600 billion+ annually.  55% of our discrectonary budget. 
More than the next, what, 13 countries combined.  12 of which are friendly. 
.
It's indefensible.  But you tried.
The key word is "discretionary."  That's because the vast majority of the federal budget is no longer discretionary, thanks largely to various entitlement programs that can't be cut without amending the laws that created them, which few politicians are willing to do out of fear of being demonized by the other side.  As I've already shown, the percentage of our GDP devoted to the military is historically small (3.1%) and trending smaller.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 07:08:06 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 04, 2020, 07:03:41 PM
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/01/29/opinion/coronavirus-


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_mCg8eWPS04
NYT is a worthless rag on par with The National Enquirer if you ask me, and that article was pure CCP propaganda.

WHO wouldn’t declare it a pandemic because the WHO is so far up China’s ass they might as well just be an arm of the CCP. And our stupid government gives the WHO most of it’s funding. US is the #1 contributor to the WHO. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 07:10:10 PM
I prefer NYC to Paris, normally, and even today, but I'm a bit odd.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 07:16:01 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 04, 2020, 06:54:55 PM
I've said this for the past couple decades, ever since I became involved in high tech manufacturing.

Mexico has tremendous natural resources.  I'm not saying that helping Mexico develop would be cheap, or easy, but just imagine committing all of the resources we've dedicated to the war on drugs, or border walls, into developing the infrastructure in Mexico and other Latin American countries instead.

Can you get a prosperous Mexico without declaring all drugs legal here and rendering the cartels irrelevant?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 07:16:38 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 07:10:10 PM
I prefer NYC to Paris, normally, and even today, but I'm a bit odd.
Paris all day over NYC. 

NYC is a stinky, rat infested shithole. And too many completely insane, ridiculous weirdos live there. NYC is a zoo.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 07:18:00 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 04, 2020, 07:06:37 PM
The key word is "discretionary."  That's because the vast majority of the federal budget is no longer discretionary, thanks largely to various entitlement programs that can't be cut without amending the laws that created them, which few politicians are willing to do out of fear of being demonized by the other side.  As I've already shown, the percentage of our GDP devoted to the military is historically small (3.1%) and trending smaller.
Ehhh, the entitlement programs people bitch about are part of the discretionary budget, too.  The ones everyone wants to keep are what you're referring to here.  
And thanks for changing it to GDP, which has nothing to do with what I said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 07:18:30 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 04, 2020, 07:10:10 PM
I prefer NYC to Paris, normally, and even today, but I'm a bit odd.
Anyone on this board that doesn't have FoxNews blaring on the TV 24/7 here is odd.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 07:20:22 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 07:16:01 PM
Can you get a prosperous Mexico without declaring all drugs legal here and rendering the cartels irrelevant?
Yes. Send in US special ops to bust them up. US special ops could wipe out the cartels in a weekend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 07:21:04 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 04, 2020, 06:54:55 PM
I've said this for the past couple decades, ever since I became involved in high tech manufacturing.

Mexico has tremendous natural resources.  I'm not saying that helping Mexico develop would be cheap, or easy, but just imagine committing all of the resources we've dedicated to the war on drugs, or border walls, into developing the infrastructure in Mexico and other Latin American countries instead.

Yes, let's imagine it.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 07:21:26 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 07:20:22 PM
Yes. Send in US special ops to bust them up. US special ops could wipe out the cartels in a weekend.
:57: k
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 07:30:40 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 07:18:30 PM
Anyone on this board that doesn't have FoxNews blaring on the TV 24/7 here is odd.
Anyone who watches MSNBC, Fox News, or CNN 24/7 is odd imo. Waste of time to try and get news from Comcast, AT&T, or what’s left of 21st Century Fox after Disney bought the film and other tv assets. 

If you’ll notice, 90% of the media in this country is owned by 4-5 publicly traded gigantic multinational conglomerates. If you’re expecting to get unbiased, truth from anyone of these billion dollar publicly traded companies, you must be a bit off. 

Cable news is all about tv ratings and selling advertising. When Obama was in office and Hannity was attacking him daily for being born in Africa or being a secret Muslim he had the #1 rated news cable show. When Trump’s in office and that guy Rachel Maddow attacks Trump for being a Russian puppet or getting peed on by Russian hookers, he’s got the #1 rated cable show. All these people on tv are clowns, and none of them are going to tell you the truth. The few anchors that do speak truth get fired, and the guests that speak truth never get asked to come back on the shows.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 07:31:32 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 07:21:26 PM
:57: k
How do you think Colombia got rid of Pablo Escobar? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 04, 2020, 07:46:00 PM
You're right CIA & Black Opts helped opposition forces maybe even did the deed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 04, 2020, 08:01:03 PM
The problems in Mexico run deeper than drugs.  If all drugs were legalized tomorrow, or in some other way disappeared as a source of massive profits, then the cartels would just move on and co-opt some more legitimate form of business.

Heck, the cartels did it with LIMES of all things, just a couple of years ago.

The Italian mafia moved into legitimate business to protect its interests, the Lebanese mafia has been doing it in various places in the USA for years, and the cartels/Mexican mafia are involved in plenty of legitimate businesses on both sides of the border as well.

I didn't say it would be easy or cheap, but I do believe if we committed all of the resources we're currently expending on the war on drugs or building futile walls and such, on building up the Mexican infrastructure, it would be mutually beneficial, almost immediately.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 08:05:35 PM
F the CCP. Just to redirect here. That is all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 08:13:25 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 04, 2020, 08:01:03 PM

Heck, the cartels did it with LIMES of all things, just a couple of years ago.
Ohh, wait.  Pre-Corona....this is where it all started!  :singing:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 08:13:45 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 07:31:32 PM
How do you think Colombia got rid of Pablo Escobar?
They asked nicely?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 04, 2020, 08:16:59 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 07:18:00 PM
Ehhh, the entitlement programs people bitch about are part of the discretionary budget, too.  The ones everyone wants to keep are what you're referring to here. 
And thanks for changing it to GDP, which has nothing to do with what I said.
No, they are not.  Social Security is a prime example.  Its expenditures are based on how many eligible recipients there are and cannot be cut without changing the law.
I didn't change your point about the military budget to GDP, I compared it to historical expenditures using a consistent metric--percentage of GDP.  I could have used percentage of the federal budget and it would have made a chart that supported my point even more strongly.  You provided no comparison to anything or any context whatsoever.  You just threw out your opinion that it was bloated and indefensible and left it at that.
You probably can't see it, but your response here is exactly why utee gave you a sarcastic "Yes, Afro, you are always right and never wrong" sort of response earlier.  You can't ever acknowledge--or at least I have never seen you acknowledge--that any comment you have made might be less than perfectly clear, less than complete, based on opinion rather than fact, lacking context, bigoted, or snarky.  When, in fact, most posters (including me) make one or more of those mistakes reasonably often.  But you don't admit that you ever do.  So utee's snarky comment to you was nothing more or less than throwing back at you the self-opinion you present.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 08:24:27 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 08:13:45 PM
They asked nicely?
Nope. He terrorized Colombia far worse than any cartel has terrorized Mexico, and he had more money and power and influence over his country than any cartel in Mexico could ever dream of having- and the only way Colombia got him to go on the run and eventually got rid of him was because they had US black ops track him down and put a bullet in his head. 

If Mexican govt wanted to, they could let US black op forces in and give them the authority to hunt, track, and kill cartel leaders. Mexican leadership has to want to let the US in. They don’t. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 08:42:29 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 08:13:25 PM
Ohh, wait.  Pre-Corona....this is where it all started!  :singing:
Put the lime in the coconut. 


I'd still like to know how the F you can stick a lime into a coconut.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 08:51:12 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 04, 2020, 08:16:59 PM
Social Security is a prime example. Its expenditures are based on how many eligible recipients there are and cannot be cut without changing the law.
Social Security is not an “entitlement” program. It’s an earned benefits program. Those who claim the benefit, paid into it on every single paycheck they got while they were working, as did their employer. Social security has brought in far more money than it pays out in benefits ever since Reagan raised the payroll tax.

There was a nearly $3 trillion surplus. What happened to the surplus. Congress spent it. 

Easy way to refill the coffers- remove the $128,000 cap on payroll tax. 

Another easy way to fix it. Stop letting Congress spend that money. Set up a sovereign wealth fund and invest in stocks and real estate, or loan money to banks or Fortune 500 companies and charge them interest.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 04, 2020, 09:21:30 PM
This got weird. 

Today I got pizza from a food truck that I really like. I’m getting local take out about every other day, though I am considering going back to back for a breakfast burrito tomorrow.

I also am definitely messing up my county‘s numbers about distance traveled because I keep going for long walks by a river near my house.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 09:24:56 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 04, 2020, 09:21:30 PM
This got weird.

Today I got pizza from a food truck that I really like. I’m getting local take out about every other day, though I am considering going back to back for a breakfast burrito tomorrow.

I also am definitely messing up my county‘s numbers about distance traveled because I keep going for long walks by a river near my house.
Weird is good. 

And I haven’t left the house in 2 days. I’m getting stir crazy. I can’t do this quarantine thing much longer. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 11:34:35 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 04, 2020, 08:16:59 PM
No, they are not.  Social Security is a prime example.  Its expenditures are based on how many eligible recipients there are and cannot be cut without changing the law.
I didn't change your point about the military budget to GDP, I compared it to historical expenditures using a consistent metric--percentage of GDP.  I could have used percentage of the federal budget and it would have made a chart that supported my point even more strongly.  You provided no comparison to anything or any context whatsoever.  You just threw out your opinion that it was bloated and indefensible and left it at that.
Your graph didn't negate my point.  That's the problem.  I say military spending is obscene and you provide a graph that shows it used to be worse.  That doesn't make the military budget prudent now, it just means it's always been obscene and used to be more so.
.
I think it's called a "yeah, but what about this" strategy.  It's like I said OU's home jerseys are maroon and you post a pic from 1973 that shows they were more maroon.  Okay, cool....but they're also maroon now.  I wasn't wrong.
.
I'm obviously wrong sometimes, we all are.  But here, in this instance, you haven't revealed it.  Separate from this, I'm often debating with someone who cites sources that are obviously slanted and flawed....by people in the bubble, so to speak.  Yes, another one of my opinions.  I don't find it a worthwhile exercise to deal with that, so I guess it looks like I'm running away or whatever - I don't much care.  Countering with some other source from some other bubble are wasted moments that none of us will ever get back.
.
Facts no longer matter.  Thanks to whoever is responsible for that.  I doubt we'd agree on who that is.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2020, 06:40:59 AM
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/)

Italy may have peaked, but the daily death toll is not going down as fast as it went up, which makes sense.  This curve is not Gaussian.  Or "normal".  

Area under the curve will be bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2020, 07:07:27 AM
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-pandemic-airborne-go-outside-masks/609235/?fbclid=IwAR36MUbcafK0A6CHTDRQl87Dbcna5QrMK40HCwwoS5DttCsw8IHEuivhkF8 (https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-pandemic-airborne-go-outside-masks/609235/?fbclid=IwAR36MUbcafK0A6CHTDRQl87Dbcna5QrMK40HCwwoS5DttCsw8IHEuivhkF8)

I found this interesting and helpful, especially the mask discussion, pros and cons are good if sometimes confusing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 05, 2020, 07:26:17 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 11:34:35 PM
Your graph didn't negate my point.  That's the problem.  I say military spending is obscene and you provide a graph that shows it used to be worse.  That doesn't make the military budget prudent now, it just means it's always been obscene and used to be more so.
.
I think it's called a "yeah, but what about this" strategy.  It's like I said OU's home jerseys are maroon and you post a pic from 1973 that shows they were more maroon.  Okay, cool....but they're also maroon now.  I wasn't wrong.
.
I'm obviously wrong sometimes, we all are.  But here, in this instance, you haven't revealed it.  Separate from this, I'm often debating with someone who cites sources that are obviously slanted and flawed....by people in the bubble, so to speak.  Yes, another one of my opinions.  I don't find it a worthwhile exercise to deal with that, so I guess it looks like I'm running away or whatever - I don't much care.  Countering with some other source from some other bubble are wasted moments that none of us will ever get back.
.
Facts no longer matter.  Thanks to whoever is responsible for that.  I doubt we'd agree on who that is. 
Facts do, and always will matter- if your mind is open enough to to see them. 

https://www.health.ny.gov/regulations/task_force/reports_publications/docs/ventilator_guidelines.pdf
here are some facts about New York- from New York.  They were sounding the alarm for Cuomo in 2015.  Very specifically saying your not going to have nearly enough ventilators in the case of a flu- like pandemic.  They even gave an estimate of how many they would be short: 15000.

the report also discusses other factors related to why NYC would be ver susceptible to such a pandemic.

Now- we can certainly form different opinions around these facts.  That is our right thankfully. But there needs to be a baseline of understanding of the facts- and I believe ( my opinion) that much has been said and written in our media that is clearly void of these facts and in some cases in direct contradiction of them.

I would certainly respect your opinion about this report should you choose to read it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2020, 07:27:59 AM
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/ (https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/)

Another one I found interesting.  (This one has some politics in it, in effect.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2020, 09:01:11 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 08:51:12 PM
Social Security is not an “entitlement” program. It’s an earned benefits program. Those who claim the benefit, paid into it on every single paycheck they got while they were working, as did their employer. Social security has brought in far more money than it pays out in benefits ever since Reagan raised the payroll tax.

There was a nearly $3 trillion surplus. What happened to the surplus. Congress spent it.

Easy way to refill the coffers- remove the $128,000 cap on payroll tax.

Another easy way to fix it. Stop letting Congress spend that money. Set up a sovereign wealth fund and invest in stocks and real estate, or loan money to banks or Fortune 500 companies and charge them interest. 
Exactly right. My people (and me) pay their half out of their paychecks, and I pay the other half with the payroll taxes. One of these I might go back and see exactly what that other half cost me since inception, but maybe not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2020, 09:24:17 AM
I'm amused/amazed at how the term "entitlement" has been eroded.  Of course SS is an entitlement program.

My car insurance is an entitlement program.  It entitles me to be reimbursed in case my car is damaged.

SS entitle me to certain payments according to age and previous income.

It's just a word, it's not a bad word at all.

And Congress did NOT "spend the surplus".  That is idiotic.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2020, 09:39:43 AM
I don't know anything about a surplus. All I know is I've put a lot of money into that system and I'm entitled to receive it. 

Of course, I'll never see all of what I've put in. 

So, to me, it's just another tax. So, let's call it that.



See how that works?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2020, 09:46:51 AM
The SS Trust Fund built up a surplus over the decades because of actuarial estimates - Baby Boomers coming into the benefit period.  The surplus was in the trillions (still is).  That money was invested in the most secure investment known to man.  It generated some interest.  This was by law from the beginnings of the SS system.  The surplus had to be put somewhere, so legally it was mandated to be put in the most secure investment possible.

The surplus is now being applied to current benefits, which was always intended.  The problem is it is apparently not sufficient and will be depleted somewhere around 2035, in which case if nothing is done benefit payments will be reduced to around 80% of current (reflecting the income from FICA taxes).

There are a number of ways to fix this problem of course, though it's easier to fix when done sooner rather than later, and Congress has no stomach for any of the fixes because they will alienate someone somewhere and will be used in political ads to claim Congressman X has raided SS.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2020, 10:01:33 AM
https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/491210-surgeon-general-this-is-going-to-be-the-hardest-and-the-saddest (https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/491210-surgeon-general-this-is-going-to-be-the-hardest-and-the-saddest)

I still see some on FB and other places arguing this whole thing is over blown and is really some nefarious plot to, well, something bad, martial law, etc.

The next couple of weeks might open some eyes and ears.  Maybe some of this is because folks don't grasp exponentials intuitively?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2020, 10:17:29 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 06:18:30 PM
Why is that? 
It's tough to say, but I think demographics play a part. Income level and overall health are probably big factors, but I did not drill into those, and I won't.

   
MunicipalityPopulationPercent WPercent BCovid-19 Cases
Birmingham2120002273376
Montgomery200000415797
Huntsville1930006830126
Mobile1900004851168
Tuscaloosa100000554344


Those are the 5 largest municipalities in the State of Alabama. The Covid-19 numbers I was able to get include the municipality and its county, and it is my assumption that the vast majority of the cases are in the municipality.

The State's total population is 4.8 Million. The State has 1,666 confirmed cases of Covid-19 today, which is about 0.035% of the State. In Birmingham metro, the rate of infection is 1.8%. The demographics are given in the table.

Now, it is impossible to draw any conclusions from this data as we are too early in the process. Current projections show that roughly 7 percent of the State's population will end up with the virus, with half of those hospitalized. The numbers for Birmingham would be staggering, if the percentages hold true.

Some states seem to be releasing demographic information, but it's not consistent by state.


https://atlantablackstar.com/2020/04/05/in-several-states-black-people-are-being-diagnosed-with-and-dying-from-covid-19-at-disproportionate-rates/


Interesting article.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 05, 2020, 10:28:58 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 07:18:00 PM
Ehhh, the entitlement programs people bitch about are part of the discretionary budget, too.  The ones everyone wants to keep are what you're referring to here. 
And thanks for changing it to GDP, which has nothing to do with what I said.
Just to clarify, this is factually wrong.

The main entitlement programs (Social Security and Medicare, but there are a couple of others) are NOT part of the discretionary budget. They're part of the budget known as mandatory spending. 

At the risk of sounding like Badge because we've gone OT, I'm not going to get into discussions of Social Security, the trust fund, etc here, even though I see many other factual or logical problems with what various people are stating. But I did want to clarify because people are arguing over discretionary budgets, what is an entitlement and what isn't, etc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandatory_spending (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandatory_spending)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2020, 10:34:24 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 05, 2020, 10:28:58 AM
Just to clarify, this is factually wrong.

The main entitlement programs (Social Security and Medicare, but there are a couple of others) are NOT part of the discretionary budget. They're part of the budget known as mandatory spending.

At the risk of sounding like Badge because we've gone OT, I'm not going to get into discussions of Social Security, the trust fund, etc here, even though I see many other factual or logical problems with what various people are stating. But I did want to clarify because people are arguing over discretionary budgets, what is an entitlement and what isn't, etc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandatory_spending (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandatory_spending)
I didn't know sounding like me was a risk. 

:57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2020, 11:09:24 AM
https://www.npr.org/2020/04/04/826961777/u-s-may-get-more-ventilators-but-run-out-of-medicine-for-covid-19-patients (https://www.npr.org/2020/04/04/826961777/u-s-may-get-more-ventilators-but-run-out-of-medicine-for-covid-19-patients)

I had not realized that patients on ventilators are heavily sedated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2020, 11:13:34 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 05, 2020, 07:26:17 AM
Facts do, and always will matter- if your mind is open enough to to see them. 

https://www.health.ny.gov/regulations/task_force/reports_publications/docs/ventilator_guidelines.pdf
here are some facts about New York- from New York.  They were sounding the alarm for Cuomo in 2015.  Very specifically saying your not going to have nearly enough ventilators in the case of a flu- like pandemic.  They even gave an estimate of how many they would be short: 15000.

the report also discusses other factors related to why NYC would be ver susceptible to such a pandemic.

Now- we can certainly form different opinions around these facts.  That is our right thankfully. But there needs to be a baseline of understanding of the facts- and I believe ( my opinion) that much has been said and written in our media that is clearly void of these facts and in some cases in direct contradiction of them.

I would certainly respect your opinion about this report should you choose to read it.
I read this thing. It was chilling, as to how decisions are made on who gets a ventilator and who does not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2020, 11:15:26 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 05, 2020, 11:09:24 AM
https://www.npr.org/2020/04/04/826961777/u-s-may-get-more-ventilators-but-run-out-of-medicine-for-covid-19-patients (https://www.npr.org/2020/04/04/826961777/u-s-may-get-more-ventilators-but-run-out-of-medicine-for-covid-19-patients)

I had not realized that patients on ventilators are heavily sedated.
Yeah, they have to be. It's akin to being intubated during surgery, but only after you're out cold. It's much worse though, I'm told.

My DIL is an ER nurse. Hearing her explain it was disturbing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2020, 11:25:36 AM
It makes sense, I had just not thought of it.  I vaguely recall being "unintubated" after surgery and that wasn't pleasant and I was still doped up.

This is a complex problem with a lot of moving parts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2020, 11:36:46 AM
Yeah, when I had my back surgery I was under for 7.5 hours, and intubated. I had a "sore throat" for a few days afterward.

Some of these patients are so severe though, there isn't time to put them "out" before invading. That's where it's a very tough job for the providers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2020, 11:48:51 AM
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-number-of-daily-covid-19-deaths-in-spain-continues-to-fall-11968826 (https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-number-of-daily-covid-19-deaths-in-spain-continues-to-fall-11968826)

Some hopeful news, but I don't expect a rate of decline to match the rate of increase.  The decline likely will be much slower with some ups and downs, if this indeed is a decline.

The models seem to show a "normal" curve instead of one that is fattened on the downside.

April 5 already.  We're all hoping for the same things.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 05, 2020, 12:23:21 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 05, 2020, 09:24:17 AM
And Congress did NOT "spend the surplus".  That is idiotic. 
Yeah, they essentially did.

The money that comes in from SS and doesn't go right back out on benefits gets spent by Congress. The treasury gives that money to Congress to spend on whatever Congress wants, and the Treasury issues bonds which are nothing but IOU's backed by the "full faith and credit" of the United States government. Congress has to pay those bonds back with interest. Where do they get the money to pay back that interest? From borrowing it from someone else or from raising taxes. It makes absolutely no sense. It is completely asinine. Robbing from Peter to pay Paul. There is an inherent flaw in that system. The US government shouldn't be touching that money to spend on whatever it pleases every year in it's budget. They spend that money and then have to raise more money by borrowing or taxation just to pay interest on that SS money they just spent on buying $940 hammers for the Pentagon.

It would have been far better off investing that surplus money into a diverse array of actual investments. Real estate, stocks, private loans, etc., etc..

There are a lot of other problems with the program. Millions of manufacturing jobs have been lost/shipped overseas and when the program was enacted there was something like 100 workers paying in for every 1 receiving benefits. The number is way down now as jobs have been lost and the population has gotten older and older and the explosion of the baby boomers coming online and claiming the benefit than ever before. Also- when the program was enacted the average life expectancy in the US was 60 years. Now it's pushing 80. People are living a lot longer today and claiming that benefit for a lot longer than ever before. That's also throwing a monkey wrench in the system.

Raise the tax a little bit and remove the cap, and stop letting Congress touch the money and invest the money in actual- you know- investments.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2020, 12:59:47 PM
Interesting read here.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/bush-in-2005-if-we-wait-for-a-pandemic-to-appear-it-will-be-too-late-to-prepare/ar-BB12btSV?li=BBnbfcQ
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 05, 2020, 01:15:48 PM
Bill Gates has been warning about viruses for the last decade. All these videos are old. Why can’t someone like him ever run for President? Probably too smart and decent of a human being to run...

https://youtu.be/6Af6b_wyiwI

https://youtu.be/9AEMKudv5p0

https://youtu.be/as9JRKed7Cs
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 05, 2020, 01:51:46 PM
took me a while to catch up on this thread the past 24 hours

some good discussion as usual

AXS TV is more entertaining than Fox News
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 05, 2020, 01:52:16 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 05, 2020, 12:23:21 PM
Raise the tax a little bit and remove the cap
First, @Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) -- I want to give you kudos on an excellent explanation on exactly how Congress has already spent the trust fund. 

However, I ask this regarding removing the cap... If you remove the cap on payroll tax contributions, are you also going to remove the cap on social security benefits? 

Because--if this is an earned benefit related to the amount of money paid into the system, then should those people earning above the cap be accruing additional value over the current maximum benefit? 

The payroll tax cap is ~$130K. The maximum benefit is ~$4K/mo (if you maxed earnings and wait until 70 to retire).

Should someone whose earnings were ~50% higher, say $200K/year, get a ~$6K/mo benefit?

If not, why not?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2020, 02:00:44 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 05, 2020, 01:52:16 PM

Should someone whose earnings were ~50% higher, say $200K/year, get a ~$6K/mo benefit?

If not, why not?
This is why I just refer to it as a tax.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 05, 2020, 02:37:16 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2020, 11:13:34 AM
I read this thing. It was chilling, as to how decisions are made on who gets a ventilator and who does not.
You mean the sort of actuarial math and approach that goes into it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2020, 02:41:09 PM
It simply is false that Congress raided the SSTF and that is why there is a shortfall.  False, completely and utterly false, no matter how many times it is repeated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 05, 2020, 02:51:05 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 05, 2020, 07:26:17 AM
Facts do, and always will matter- if your mind is open enough to to see them. 

https://www.health.ny.gov/regulations/task_force/reports_publications/docs/ventilator_guidelines.pdf
here are some facts about New York- from New York.  They were sounding the alarm for Cuomo in 2015.  Very specifically saying your not going to have nearly enough ventilators in the case of a flu- like pandemic.  They even gave an estimate of how many they would be short: 15000.

the report also discusses other factors related to why NYC would be ver susceptible to such a pandemic.

Now- we can certainly form different opinions around these facts.  That is our right thankfully. But there needs to be a baseline of understanding of the facts- and I believe ( my opinion) that much has been said and written in our media that is clearly void of these facts and in some cases in direct contradiction of them.

I would certainly respect your opinion about this report should you choose to read it.
thanks for the link. This plus that video you posted of Pelosi, the top health czar of NYC, and the mayor of NYC telling people to go out and enjoy China town and the virus is no big deal- sorta turns that whole this is Trump's fault narrative on it's entire head.

This is no ones fault but the CCP and the WHO. WHO bought hook line and sinker CCP propaganda and was telling other countries leadership not to ban travel to and from China and that it was safe. Trump was the only world leader in the entire freaking world who banned travel to and from China immediately.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2020, 02:51:29 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 05, 2020, 02:37:16 PM
You mean the sort of actuarial math and approach that goes into it?
Yeah. It turns people into numbers. That hurt, but that's reality at a time like this (maybe, hopefully not).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 05, 2020, 02:52:25 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 05, 2020, 02:41:09 PM
It simply is false that Congress raided the SSTF and that is why there is a shortfall.  False, completely and utterly false, no matter how many times it is repeated.
Stated THAT way, you're correct. Congress didn't "raid" anything. 

But what @Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) said is 100% accurate. The trust fund doesn't contain money. It contains T-bills. Both are assets, but they're very different kinds of assets.

The surplus was used by the social security trust fund to buy Treasury bonds. That meant the surplus money was given to the Treasury. And then Congress spent that money (and a lot more--remember we're in perennial deficits).

So the trust fund exists and it is chock full of Treasury bonds, which are slowly being depleted. You know how the trust fund is paid back? Either by additional Treasury borrowing (from someone other than Social Security), or by taxpayer dollars.

If you're not getting what I and @Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) are saying, let me know. I have an analogy that I came up with that might clear it up. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2020, 02:59:34 PM
I understand the situation quite clearly.  T bonds are assets.  If I buy one, the money has not somehow disappeared.  I get it back, with interest.

If the SSTF did not invest in T bonds, where should they put the money?

Assets are just that, assets.  You can say Congress has borrowed a lot of money over the years from insurance companies, investors, China, the Fed, etc., but that money has not magically disappeared.

The looming deficit in the SSTF has NOTHING TO DO WITH CONGRESS AND HOW MUCH THEY SPEND (other than they didn't fix the system).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 05, 2020, 03:19:29 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 05, 2020, 10:28:58 AM
Just to clarify, this is factually wrong.

The main entitlement programs (Social Security and Medicare, but there are a couple of others) are NOT part of the discretionary budget. They're part of the budget known as mandatory spending.

Um, you're agreeing with me here.  I said the programs people bitch about are discretionary.  Food stamps and such.  These you mention here are the ones everyone likes and wants and are mandatory, as you said.  You're saying I'm wrong while agreeing with me.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 05, 2020, 03:22:30 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2020, 02:51:29 PM
Yeah. It turns people into numbers.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1FRvwJP1pk (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1FRvwJP1pk)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 05, 2020, 03:25:12 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 08:51:12 PM
Social Security is not an “entitlement” program. It’s an earned benefits program. Those who claim the benefit, paid into it on every single paycheck they got while they were working, as did their employer. Social security has brought in far more money than it pays out in benefits ever since Reagan raised the payroll tax.

There was a nearly $3 trillion surplus. What happened to the surplus. Congress spent it.

Easy way to refill the coffers- remove the $128,000 cap on payroll tax.

Another easy way to fix it. Stop letting Congress spend that money. Set up a sovereign wealth fund and invest in stocks and real estate, or loan money to banks or Fortune 500 companies and charge them interest.
Well, this article on entitlement programs (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_programs_in_the_United_States) includes it, with the caveat that it is in some ways unlike the others.  But I take your point.

Somehow it seems that the easy ways to fix it aren't politically easy or they would have already been implemented.  Your suggestions might be "simple" and "workable," but the evidence indicates that they aren't easy to get passed into law.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 05, 2020, 03:35:44 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 11:34:35 PM
Your graph didn't negate my point.  That's the problem.  I say military spending is obscene and you provide a graph that shows it used to be worse.  That doesn't make the military budget prudent now, it just means it's always been obscene and used to be more so.
.
I think it's called a "yeah, but what about this" strategy.  It's like I said OU's home jerseys are maroon and you post a pic from 1973 that shows they were more maroon.  Okay, cool....but they're also maroon now.  I wasn't wrong.
.
I'm obviously wrong sometimes, we all are.  But here, in this instance, you haven't revealed it.  Separate from this, I'm often debating with someone who cites sources that are obviously slanted and flawed....by people in the bubble, so to speak.  Yes, another one of my opinions.  I don't find it a worthwhile exercise to deal with that, so I guess it looks like I'm running away or whatever - I don't much care.  Countering with some other source from some other bubble are wasted moments that none of us will ever get back.
.
Facts no longer matter.  Thanks to whoever is responsible for that.  I doubt we'd agree on who that is.
You didn't offer one fact that says that defense spending is obscene.  That is your opinion.  Can you understand the difference?  Your opinion might be valid, but it is not a fact.
OU's jerseys are not and never have been maroon.  There's a fact.
So you're saying that the way to debate someone who won't stick to facts is to also not stick to facts?  Is that what you want to be saying?
I've "revealed" that you were wrong to the extent that you presented your opinion with no comparison and no context.  You've done nothing but reiterate your opinion as fact.
In my opinion, facts continue to matter, your opinion to the contrary notwithstanding.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2020, 03:38:30 PM
I think when our defense spending is equal to that of the next 15 countries combined, that could be seen as a "fact" that it is obscene.  It's opinion of course, I don't know how anything could be otherwise.

Both parties spend like drunken sailors, I don't think that is a political comment.  We elect them.  I doubt anyone would get reelected for really making the effort to cut spending.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 05, 2020, 03:38:39 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 05, 2020, 02:59:34 PM
I understand the situation quite clearly.  T bonds are assets.  If I buy one, the money has not somehow disappeared.  I get it back, with interest.

If the SSTF did not invest in T bonds, where should they put the money?

Assets are just that, assets.  You can say Congress has borrowed a lot of money over the years from insurance companies, investors, China, the Fed, etc., but that money has not magically disappeared.

The looming deficit in the SSTF has NOTHING TO DO WITH CONGRESS AND HOW MUCH THEY SPEND (other than they didn't fix the system).
Ok... Let me go on then...

Assume that I'm a new college grad in my early 20s. I decide that for the purposes of my life, I'm actually going to get two jobs instead of one, because I have a particularly interesting "side hustle" that I can do for fun in addition to my career. 

So I get two jobs. 


Now, I'm a new college grad and can choose to live pretty spartan, and my mandatory bills don't consume all my spending. Prudently, I want to save that money and plan for the future. I may one day get married, have kids, and I'm sure my bills will go up significantly. 

Now, where do I save it? I've got a great idea! My right pocket is offering savings bonds, and promises that if I lend the excess money from my right pocket to my left pocket, it'll promise to pay me back with interest when I need to draw down on those assets. 

My right pocket is a bit of a spendthrift. And flush with not only the cash from Job B, but all the excess leftovers from Job A, it spends and spends and spends. It keeps creating bigger and bigger promises to the left pocket, but hey, I'm good for it, right? I have excellent credit!

Years and years go by. I get married, have kids, my conditions change and I find my left pocket needing to draw down those assets. 

So what do I do? The way I look at it, I have four options:


But you're right... None of right pocket's spending is responsible for left pocket needing to draw down the assets it has built up. 

But that doesn't change the fact that every one of #1 through #4 is a bad move for @bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) -- who wears the damn pants. 

Now, the other option would have been if left pocket had been loaning YOU the excess money over the years, @Cincydawg (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=870) -- it would have meant that right pocket didn't have as much hidden income to overspend in the past, but it also would mean that it wouldn't require more earning power from @bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) to pay back the assets to myself.

The American taxpayer thinks it has an asset to draw down on, in the SSTF. But that asset comes from our own tax dollars (or deficit borrowing), so it's not like "we" are helped by some magical trust fund that's full of money. The SSTF is a claim on future taxpayers. The only difference is that it has to be funded from income taxes rather than payroll taxes. If you want to call that an "asset", well as one of the non-retired guys paying those income taxes, it certainly seems like a burden to me. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 05, 2020, 03:45:17 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 05, 2020, 03:19:29 PM
Um, you're agreeing with me here.  I said the programs people bitch about are discretionary.  Food stamps and such.  These you mention here are the ones everyone likes and wants and are mandatory, as you said.  You're saying I'm wrong while agreeing with me. 
Ahh, I misunderstood you. To be fair, you weren't perfectly clear lol 


Quote
Ehhh, the entitlement programs people bitch about are part of the discretionary budget, too. 


I had no clue you were talking about things like food stamps (SNAP). When you said "the entitlement programs" I thought you were talking about the bulk of them (SS & Medicare), which are the lion's share of mandatory spending. I hadn't meant that the programs "people bitch about" was a particular subset you didn't name. 

That said, SNAP is part of the mandatory spending portion too. It's not discretionary. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 05, 2020, 03:48:03 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 05, 2020, 03:19:29 PM
Um, you're agreeing with me here.  I said the programs people bitch about are discretionary.  Food stamps and such.  These you mention here are the ones everyone likes and wants and are mandatory, as you said.  You're saying I'm wrong while agreeing with me.
You know, you are the only one who is discussing this in terms of "programs people bitch about."  Could you provide a brief list of these programs, along with your sources of information (rather than your opinion)?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2020, 03:49:34 PM
I made a new thread for discussion like this one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 05, 2020, 04:08:13 PM
CWSooner, yes it is. 

When you include EVERYTHING in the total “defense” budget it’s over $1.2 TRILLION dollars.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 05, 2020, 04:14:03 PM
Mdot:

I just moved the post to which you are responding to Badge's new thread.

If you have a source for what you're saying, both the $1.2 trillion and the apples-to-apples comparison with the next 15 countries, please post it over on that thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 05, 2020, 04:55:18 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 05, 2020, 03:45:17 PM
Ahh, I misunderstood you. To be fair, you weren't perfectly clear lol



I had no clue you were talking about things like food stamps (SNAP). When you said "the entitlement programs" I thought you were talking about the bulk of them (SS & Medicare), which are the lion's share of mandatory spending. I hadn't meant that the programs "people bitch about" was a particular subset you didn't name.

That said, SNAP is part of the mandatory spending portion too. It's not discretionary.
Okay.
Whether discretionary or not, the entitlements a certain half of our country bitches about as being handouts or unearned or whatever equals drops in the bucket compared to everything else.  
And the military spending % of the discretionary budget is only growing under Trump.  
.
It's funny, our geography is a natural defense.  But it's not enough.  We have BY FAR the #1 navy in the world.  That's not enough.  We have BY FAR the #1 air force in the world.  Nope, still need more.  The Marines, the coast guard, the NSA, the FBI, the CIA, the DoD,...800 military bases in 70 countries.  
.
W.....T......F........
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 05, 2020, 07:22:08 PM
Social Security is not an entitlement program

The government is simply paying back the money it took from me for 40 years
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2020, 07:50:41 PM
Yeah, and you are entitled to SS payments at the correct age.  You are not being in any sense paid back what you put into it.  That money went to folks receiving benefits at the time, plus some into the SSTF.

It's an entitlement.  There is nothing pejorative about the term, except as common usage has altered its meaning.  You are entitled to payments.  That is the definition of an entitlement.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 05, 2020, 08:12:56 PM
Wasn't SS at risk a few years ago?  Did that ever get settled?  The balloon population of the boomers retiring and all that....???
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2020, 08:30:37 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 05, 2020, 08:12:56 PM
Wasn't SS at risk a few years ago?  Did that ever get settled?  The balloon population of the boomers retiring and all that....???
Take it to the other thread I started.

I would like to see a response to the research I did on the Alabama stuff. I spent about 2 hours on that, based on your question: "Why is that?"

To not get a response, to me, is disrespectful.


So?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2020, 08:31:33 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 05, 2020, 07:22:08 PM
Social Security is not an entitlement program

The government is simply paying back the money it took from me for 40 years
There is a new thread for this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2020, 08:33:01 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 05, 2020, 07:50:41 PM
Yeah, and you are entitled to SS payments at the correct age.  You are not being in any sense paid back what you put into it.  That money went to folks receiving benefits at the time, plus some into the SSTF.

It's an entitlement.  There is nothing pejorative about the term, except as common usage has altered its meaning.  You are entitled to payments.  That is the definition of an entitlement.
There is a new thread for this.



I want a response from @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) on my Alabama research. I would like it now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 05, 2020, 09:09:42 PM
lol
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2020, 09:12:24 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 05, 2020, 09:09:42 PM
lol

That's the response I get for doing your research? You asked, and I did it for you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 05, 2020, 09:14:53 PM
So I need to find your post on another thread, then find out what I was even asking about, because I don't remember....and there's a time limit?
.
Panties......bunch.....much
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2020, 09:19:46 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 05, 2020, 09:14:53 PM
So I need to find your post on another thread, then find out what I was even asking about, because I don't remember....and there's a time limit?
.
Panties......bunch.....much
It's in this thread, which got derailed, as usual. I'll bring it to the forefront, for you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2020, 09:21:21 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2020, 06:15:26 PM

Alabama is in for a world of hurt.


Why is that? 

This is a question from @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) in response to me post about Alabama being in for a world of hurt.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2020, 09:23:16 PM
This is me, saying I would do the research necessary to properly respond.


Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 06:18:30 PM

Why is that? 
There are many reasons.

Poor population may be one. Mass congregation in churches is for sure one. Ignorant to the severity. Lack of social distancing. It all adds up.

What these IHEM models are not showing us is demographics. That I'm really curious about.

I have some ideas from looking at maps in my own area, town by town, because I know those towns. In general, it is the wealthy towns (travel-related, no doubt) and the very poor towns that are the hardest hit. I know "who" lives where around here.

I guess I will try to do some research to drill down on the why, versus assuming that they are "conservative" or otherwise. I'll report back on what I find, if I'm able to figure out the demographics of towns down there. I have no familiarity at all with the makeup of Birmingham, for example, so it will take me some time.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 05, 2020, 09:23:43 PM
I posted, but you're acting awfully severe and I'm not sure why.  Your post didn't even yield anything conclusive, did it?  I posted over there, but don't put parameters on me again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2020, 09:25:06 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 05, 2020, 09:23:43 PM
I posted, but you're acting awfully severe and I'm not sure why.  Your post didn't even yield anything conclusive, did it?  I posted over there, but don't put parameters on me again.
My research results:


Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 06:18:30 PM

Why is that? 
It's tough to say, but I think demographics play a part. Income level and overall health are probably big factors, but I did not drill into those, and I won't.

 
MunicipalityPopulationPercent WPercent BCovid-19 Cases
Birmingham2120002273376
Montgomery200000415797
Huntsville1930006830126
Mobile1900004851168
Tuscaloosa100000554344


Those are the 5 largest municipalities in the State of Alabama. The Covid-19 numbers I was able to get include the municipality and its county, and it is my assumption that the vast majority of the cases are in the municipality.

The State's total population is 4.8 Million. The State has 1,666 confirmed cases of Covid-19 today, which is about 0.035% of the State. In Birmingham metro, the rate of infection is 1.8%. The demographics are given in the table.

Now, it is impossible to draw any conclusions from this data as we are too early in the process. Current projections show that roughly 7 percent of the State's population will end up with the virus, with half of those hospitalized. The numbers for Birmingham would be staggering, if the percentages hold true.

Some states seem to be releasing demographic information, but it's not consistent by state.


https://atlantablackstar.com/2020/04/05/in-several-states-black-people-are-being-diagnosed-with-and-dying-from-covid-19-at-disproportionate-rates/


Interesting article.






Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2020, 09:26:46 PM
Feel free to comment, or opine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2020, 09:53:03 PM
I was able to drill into Illinois' data tonight.

274 deaths.

132 Black or Hispanic. 106 white. Illinois reports a figure that it's population is 71.5% white. That death total for minorities is clearly out of proportion. This is a big problem, clearly, but those minorities have a voice when it comes to who represents them. I would assume that most of the minority deaths are in Crook County/Chicago.

Other stats on deaths:

84 are 80+ years old. 81 between 70-79 years old. That makes 165, or 60%, for those who don't like math.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2020, 10:39:32 PM
I'm pretty sure that the population in Alabama that is most at risk will not be wearing MAGA hats. I'm pretty sure they weren't saying this was a hoax. I'm pretty sure they didn't know much about any of this. I'm sure that's somebody else's fault.

I'll stand by for a response. 

I'm tired. I got up early today to do research, and I need to get up even earlier tomorrow, so I can work to help keep our economy going.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 05, 2020, 11:37:45 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2020, 10:39:32 PM
I'm pretty sure that the population in Alabama that is most at risk will not be wearing MAGA hats. I'm pretty sure they weren't saying this was a hoax. I'm pretty sure they didn't know much about any of this. I'm sure that's somebody else's fault.

I'll stand by for a response.

I'm tired. I got up early today to do research, and I need to get up even earlier tomorrow, so I can work to help keep our economy going.
The old, the poor, the unhealthy.......that's a majority of Alabama, no matter the race. 
Illinois may be 75% white, but Chicago certainly isn't, lol.  You're posting this stuff and I'm not seeing anything meaningful to glean from it.  You give the racial makeup of a state, when the virus is highest in urban areas.  
.
You see the Birmingham data, but Montgomery negates it.  And why do you want my opinion so much?  Here, OAM, here's a scatter of data that doesn't point towards anything, whattaya think? 
.
I don't think much of anything of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on April 06, 2020, 02:42:14 AM
We still have little testing available in Iowa. We look so clean as a state. I think my secretary had a 50% chance of having it and recovering. She tested negative for flu and strep 2-weeks ago, but she didn't qualify for another test when she had a respiratory condition and she is mid-30s two weeks ago. Her 12-year old daughter brought it home from school and recovered quickly. Secretary had it a week or so. She was in here 1.5 hours 2-weeks ago. I insisted she go home, but I relented to her pleas because she is a single mother, for 1.5 hours, as I had dictation on queue.  After which I reminded her of her liberal vacation benefits she could burn. I asked her to leave. I am a one man law office. 

We still have little testing in Iowa. Our governor closed schools early, but we have no stay-at-home order.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2020, 06:20:21 AM
The step daughter is still pretty sick and tested negative (which her MD said meant almost nothing, she wondered why they bothered).

It could well be influenza, she had the classic symptoms early on but they have not developed into the dry cough and fever typical of COVID.  Her husband has not been sick.  They live in a tiny village about 60 miles outside Paris.

09:30 GMT - Austria plans to start reopening shops from next week
Austria plans to reopen smaller shops from next week in its first step to loosen a lockdown that has slowed the spread of the coronavirus, as long as the public continue to observe the lockdown broadly, Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has said.
Kurz told a news conference that since Austria had acted earlier than most countries, that gave it the ability to reopen shops sooner as well.
If all goes well, it will reopen non-essential shops of less than 400 square metres and DIY shops on April 14, followed by all shops and malls on May 1, he said.



Clearly, the Austrians care nothing about lives and just want to make their economy grow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2020, 06:35:36 AM
The aggregate news this morning is rather hopeful, I think, the numbers are coming in under the projections in the US, the southern European countries and NYC MAY have crested and started to decline.  There is a NOTION that some of us, more than thought, have been infected and have some herd immunity with no symptoms, I'm not ready to accept that at this point but it is one explanation for this thing.

The stock market futures are up sharply at this point.  I tend to view them as a bell weather of sorts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2020, 06:51:12 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 05, 2020, 11:37:45 PM
And why do you want my opinion so much?
Because you gave an opinion about Alabama (and the South in general) based on a very flawed map.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2020, 06:51:41 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 06, 2020, 06:35:36 AM
The aggregate news this morning is rather hopeful, I think, the numbers are coming in under the projections in the US, the southern European countries and NYC MAY have crested and started to decline.  There is a NOTION that some of us, more than thought, have been infected and have some herd immunity with no symptoms, I'm not ready to accept that at this point but it is one explanation for this thing.

The stock market futures are up sharply at this point.  I tend to view them as a bell weather of sorts.
Very encouraging. Thank you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2020, 07:16:37 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 05, 2020, 09:23:43 PM
 I posted over there, but don't put parameters on me again.
What sort of "parameters" would anyone put on you, were they so inclined to do so?

I see people jogging at times carrying "parameters" and figure it's to enhance their exercise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 06, 2020, 09:17:59 AM
Good morning all, everyone still alive and breathing well?  All good here in the ATX.

Some encouraging news coming in from around the nation and globe for sure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 06, 2020, 09:43:37 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 06, 2020, 09:17:59 AM
Good morning all, everyone still alive and breathing well?  All good here in the ATX.

Some encouraging news coming in from around the nation and globe for sure.
Depends who you ask lol.  In some circles it’s against the rules to be encouraged ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 06, 2020, 09:45:37 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 06, 2020, 06:35:36 AM
The aggregate news this morning is rather hopeful, I think, the numbers are coming in under the projections in the US, the southern European countries and NYC MAY have crested and started to decline.  There is a NOTION that some of us, more than thought, have been infected and have some herd immunity with no symptoms, I'm not ready to accept that at this point but it is one explanation for this thing.

The stock market futures are up sharply at this point.  I tend to view them as a bell weather of sorts.
I really think I might have had this thing in mid January. I've never had a flu like that before. I was sick for two weeks, had a fever that wouldn't go away for over a week. My immune system is pretty gangster. I basically never get sick and I've had the flu in the past and always bounced back in a few days. This thing just lingered on forever and kicked my ass for 2 weeks.

I really think a lot of people already had this thing. First of all, the CCP are clearly lying bastards and this infected and killed way more people in China than they let on, and 430,000 people from China traveled to the US since December 31st, 2019- with tens of thousands flying to the US directly from Wuhan- and 400,000 people- the vast majority of these travelers- came in from China in January before the US enacted a travel ban on January 31st. Which by the way, the travel ban went into affect all while the lying CCP and the gutless WHO were telling the world everything is A-OK- no need to slow down travel from China!

This doesn't count the countless millions who must've come in to the US from other countries in Europe, Australia, Africa, and Asia that had been exposed to the Chinese virus via their countries being completely open to travel to/from China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2020, 09:45:49 AM
Still here and breathing. Maybe I'm not looking hard enough, but I can't seem to find any good news today. It's all bad stuff.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2020, 09:51:24 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/coronavirus-el-erian-encouraged-by-mondays-rally-on-medical-news.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/coronavirus-el-erian-encouraged-by-mondays-rally-on-medical-news.html)

News from southern Europe and NYC is better than expected.  The model I've been following was revised down in terms of deaths.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections (https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections)

The stock market is happy, maybe more than a dead cat thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 06, 2020, 09:52:54 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 05, 2020, 11:09:24 AM
https://www.npr.org/2020/04/04/826961777/u-s-may-get-more-ventilators-but-run-out-of-medicine-for-covid-19-patients (https://www.npr.org/2020/04/04/826961777/u-s-may-get-more-ventilators-but-run-out-of-medicine-for-covid-19-patients)

I had not realized that patients on ventilators are heavily sedated.
Having spent 3 weeks on one a few years ago, I can tell you that you have to be sedated. I woke up with the tube down my throat and if my hands had not been secured to the bed rails, I would have been pulling that thing out of my mouth. It was a horrible ordeal. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 06, 2020, 09:59:27 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 06, 2020, 06:35:36 AM
The aggregate news this morning is rather hopeful, I think, the numbers are coming in under the projections in the US, the southern European countries and NYC MAY have crested and started to decline.  
Thanx for your POV
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 06, 2020, 10:03:37 AM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 06, 2020, 09:52:54 AM
Having spent 3 weeks on one a few years ago, I can tell you that you have to be sedated. I woke up with the tube down my throat and if my hands had not been secured to the bed rails, I would have been pulling that thing out of my mouth. It was a horrible ordeal.
When my mother passed away there was some state regulation inplace health care facilities couldn't do that.The last couple months of her life were tough as she had broke her hip and had to be sedated quite a bit
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on April 06, 2020, 10:03:44 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 06, 2020, 09:17:59 AM
Good morning all, everyone still alive and breathing well?  All good here in the ATX.

Some encouraging news coming in from around the nation and globe for sure.
Yup, alive and kicking here in the MSP.

I did something to my right knee yesterday and it hurts to beat hell right now. Didn't get much sleep, and as such I'm dragging through my Monday morning conference calls. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 06, 2020, 10:12:23 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 06, 2020, 10:03:37 AM
When my mother passed away there was some state regulation inplace health care facilities couldn't do that.The last couple months of her life were tough as she had broke her hip and had to be sedated quite a bit
All I can tell you is that when I woke up after 3 weeks being on the vent, I was not able to lift my arms to pull that damn thing out of my mouth. After what seemed like an eternity, a couple of male nurses came in. One of them held me down, the other ripped that thing out of my throat and it hurt like hell. Apparently, my esophagus had begun to grow around the tube. It took about 2 weeks to quit hurting and about that long before I could speak much over a whisper.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 06, 2020, 10:13:15 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 06, 2020, 09:51:24 AM
The stock market is happy, maybe more than a dead cat thing.
Stock markets will be just fine. Big business got it's big bailout with that stimulus package. Wall Street just got trillions in government backed low cost credit to pay bills and/or go shopping with and with basically zero over-sight.

It's been a great time to invest if you've have any extra cash laying around. I'd look at a company like Nordstrom. They might be primed for a takeover by Amazon right now. There have been rumors for years that Amazon has wanted to buy them. Walmart made a bid to buy them and the Nordstrom family which still controls most of the voting of the stock shot Walmart down.

It's $15 a share right now, fell all the way to $13 at it's lowest and it was at $42 in January before the coronavirus+ it's latest earnings report came out. If Amazon does make a play to buy them they'll pay a premium and you can bet they'll be buying the company for more than $15 a share.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 06, 2020, 10:44:57 AM
not a fan of his by any means, but he's clearly a smart person, and I absolutely love how he attacks China in this. And everything he's saying is true. The CCP tried to cover this thing up, and the worthless, gutless WHO held the CCP's water and was saying as late on February 14th that this novel coronavirus does not transmit human to human. Japanese deputy Prime Minister came out and publicly slammed the WHO the other day, said WHO should be renamed Chinese Health Organization.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=10&v=Z1vyU5qVPTE&feature=emb_logo
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on April 06, 2020, 11:05:56 AM
R&A cancels the Open Championships. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 06, 2020, 11:32:59 AM
Not sure who R&A is or what the open championship is?  Is that tennis?  Golf?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on April 06, 2020, 11:40:47 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 06, 2020, 11:32:59 AM
Not sure who R&A is or what the open championship is?  Is that tennis?  Golf?

R&A is short for the Royal and Ancient Golf Club of St. Andrew's, governing body of golf outside the US and runs the British Open. And yes, it's the golf tourney I was talking about. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2020, 11:45:29 AM
https://www.al.com/news/2020/04/new-death-rate-projection-less-dire-for-alabama-no-longer-worst-in-nation.html (https://www.al.com/news/2020/04/new-death-rate-projection-less-dire-for-alabama-no-longer-worst-in-nation.html)

New projections released Sunday from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (http://www.healthdata.org/about) at the University of Washington paint a less frightening picture for Alabama as the state continues to face the COVID-19 pandemic.

Last week the IHME model (https://www.al.com/news/2020/04/alabama-projected-to-have-highest-death-rate-fourth-most-coronavirus-deaths-in-nation.html) showed Alabama could see the fourth highest total deaths from the novel coronavirus, and the highest death rate in the whole country. In the new projections, Alabama would be 16th in total deaths. The state would fall from first to 21st in deaths per capita.

The new projections show Alabama could still face anywhere from 378 to 1,996 coronavirus deaths by the middle of May, with a mean projection of fewer than 1,000 dead. Compare that with last week’s estimates, which were updated on April 1, and showed a mean projection of more than 5,000 deaths.

The projected death rate in Alabama fell from 11 in 10,000 people last week to a projection of fewer than 2 in 10,000 this week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 06, 2020, 11:50:13 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on April 06, 2020, 11:40:47 AM
R&A is short for the Royal and Ancient Golf Club of St. Andrew's, governing body of golf outside the US and runs the British Open. And yes, it's the golf tourney I was talking about.
Cool thanks.  

And yeah, if the Olympics were canceled, then it was pretty safe to assume the large international golf tournaments are going to be canceled too.

I don't think we'll see any international sports until September at the earliest. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 06, 2020, 12:46:07 PM
Im sitting her watching Gov Cuomo and Im envisioning Al Pacino

anybody else see a resemblance
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 06, 2020, 01:08:55 PM
Quote from: Hawkinole on April 06, 2020, 02:42:14 AM
We still have little testing available in Iowa. We look so clean as a state. I think my secretary had a 50% chance of having it and recovering. She tested negative for flu and strep 2-weeks ago, but she didn't qualify for another test when she had a respiratory condition and she is mid-30s two weeks ago. Her 12-year old daughter brought it home from school and recovered quickly. Secretary had it a week or so. She was in here 1.5 hours 2-weeks ago. I insisted she go home, but I relented to her pleas because she is a single mother, for 1.5 hours, as I had dictation on queue.  After which I reminded her of her liberal vacation benefits she could burn. I asked her to leave. I am a one man law office. 

We still have little testing in Iowa. Our governor closed schools early, but we have no stay-at-home order.


As the availability of testing increases, health officials said last week they expect the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 to rise. Local health officials estimate they'll be able to test up to 60 patients a day for the novel coronavirus at a drive-thru testing site that opened March 27 in downtown Sioux City.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 06, 2020, 01:39:09 PM
*  Half of us are going to come out of this quarantine as amazing cooks.  The other half will come out with a drinking problem

*  I need to practice social distancing from . . . the refrigerator

*  Still haven’t decided where to go for Easter/Passover . . . The Living Room or The Bedroom.

*  Every few days, try your jeans on just to make sure they fit.  Pajamas will have you believe all is well in the kingdom.

*  Homeschooling is going well.  2 students suspended for fighting and 1 teacher fired for drinking on the job!

*  I don’t think anyone expected that when we changed the clocks we’d go from Standard Time to Twilight Zone.

*  This morning I saw a neighbor talking to her cat.  It was obvious she thought her cat understood her.  I came into the house, told my dog . . . we laughed a lot.

*  So, after this quarantine, will the producers of My 600 Pound life just find me or do I find them?*  Quarantine Day 12:  Went to this restaurant called THE KITCHEN.  You have to gather all the ingredients and make your own meal.  I have no clue how this place is still in business!

*  My body has absorbed so much soap and disinfectant lately that when I pee it cleans the toilet.

*  Day 12 of Homeschooling:  One of these little monsters called in a bomb threat.

*  I’m so excited . . . it’s time to take out the garbage.  What to wear, what to wear?

*  I hope the weather is good tomorrow for my trip to Puerto Backyardia.  I’m getting tired of Los Livingroomia.

*  Classified Ad:  Single man with toilet paper seeks women with hand sanitizer for good clean fun.

*  Day 12 of Homeschooling:  My child just said “I hope I don’t have the same teacher next year.”  I’m offended.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2020, 01:41:35 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 06, 2020, 11:45:29 AM
https://www.al.com/news/2020/04/new-death-rate-projection-less-dire-for-alabama-no-longer-worst-in-nation.html (https://www.al.com/news/2020/04/new-death-rate-projection-less-dire-for-alabama-no-longer-worst-in-nation.html)

New projections released Sunday from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (http://www.healthdata.org/about) at the University of Washington paint a less frightening picture for Alabama as the state continues to face the COVID-19 pandemic.

Last week the IHME model (https://www.al.com/news/2020/04/alabama-projected-to-have-highest-death-rate-fourth-most-coronavirus-deaths-in-nation.html) showed Alabama could see the fourth highest total deaths from the novel coronavirus, and the highest death rate in the whole country. In the new projections, Alabama would be 16th in total deaths. The state would fall from first to 21st in deaths per capita.

The new projections show Alabama could still face anywhere from 378 to 1,996 coronavirus deaths by the middle of May, with a mean projection of fewer than 1,000 dead. Compare that with last week’s estimates, which were updated on April 1, and showed a mean projection of more than 5,000 deaths.

The projected death rate in Alabama fell from 11 in 10,000 people last week to a projection of fewer than 2 in 10,000 this week.

Excellent news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2020, 02:08:43 PM
This country values human lives. There absolutely would have been honest reporting of data. We also have a far better healthcare system. From China and their WHO (Wuhon Health Organization) buddies, you get this:

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 06, 2020, 02:14:21 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 06, 2020, 12:46:07 PM
Im sitting her watching Gov Cuomo and Im envisioning Al Pacino

anybody else see a resemblance
If I have to watch something - it wouldn't be him
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 06, 2020, 02:16:51 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2020, 02:08:43 PM
This country values human lives. the economy above all else.

Fixed it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 06, 2020, 02:17:01 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 06, 2020, 01:39:09 PM
*  Half of us are going to come out of this quarantine as amazing cooks.  The other half will come out with a drinking problem

*  I need to practice social distancing from . . . the refrigerator

*  Still haven’t decided where to go for Easter/Passover . . . The Living Room or The Bedroom.

*  Every few days, try your jeans on just to make sure they fit.  Pajamas will have you believe all is well in the kingdom.

*  Homeschooling is going well.  2 students suspended for fighting and 1 teacher fired for drinking on the job!

*  I don’t think anyone expected that when we changed the clocks we’d go from Standard Time to Twilight Zone.

*  This morning I saw a neighbor talking to her cat.  It was obvious she thought her cat understood her.  I came into the house, told my dog . . . we laughed a lot.

*  So, after this quarantine, will the producers of My 600 Pound life just find me or do I find them?*  Quarantine Day 12:  Went to this restaurant called THE KITCHEN.  You have to gather all the ingredients and make your own meal.  I have no clue how this place is still in business!

*  My body has absorbed so much soap and disinfectant lately that when I pee it cleans the toilet.

*  Day 12 of Homeschooling:  One of these little monsters called in a bomb threat.

*  I’m so excited . . . it’s time to take out the garbage.  What to wear, what to wear?

*  I hope the weather is good tomorrow for my trip to Puerto Backyardia.  I’m getting tired of Los Livingroomia.

*  Classified Ad:  Single man with toilet paper seeks women with hand sanitizer for good clean fun.

*  Day 12 of Homeschooling:  My child just said “I hope I don’t have the same teacher next year.”  I’m offended.


Thanks Nubzz.  Much needed smiles.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 06, 2020, 02:17:49 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 06, 2020, 02:02:43 PM
  Does anyone here on this board believe we'd have been open about it? 
.
If you're honest with yourself, it's a rhetorical question.
On this Board ?hell yes - did you even have to ask that?This board would have pulled the fire alarms,it's why I come here
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 06, 2020, 02:18:35 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 06, 2020, 02:14:21 PM
If I have to watch something - it wouldn't be him
This whole forum is out of order!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 06, 2020, 02:19:20 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 06, 2020, 02:16:51 PM
Fixed it.
It is an interesting take.  

Many with true good hearts and insight think long term and view them as the same.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 06, 2020, 02:21:34 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 06, 2020, 02:02:43 PM
I like him and nearly always disagree with him.
But I've got to ask this question:  say the virus started in Missouri.  Does anyone here on this board believe we'd have been open about it?  Been transparent?  Honest?  Would our current government have done anything China didn't? 
.
If you're honest with yourself, it's a rhetorical question.
Lol wut?

You do realize that the CCP disappears and murders its own citizens whenever they please and they completely control the media?

A coverup here on that scale wouldn’t have been possible here. Period. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2020, 02:22:22 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 06, 2020, 02:16:51 PM
Fixed it.
With a broken hammer and used duct tape.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 06, 2020, 02:23:40 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 06, 2020, 02:02:43 PM
I like him and nearly always disagree with him.
But I've got to ask this question:  say the virus started in Missouri.  Does anyone here on this board believe we'd have been open about it?  Been transparent?  Honest?  Would our current government have done anything China didn't? 
.
If you're honest with yourself, it's a rhetorical question.
Absolutely.  The transparency is full blown in this country.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 06, 2020, 02:28:42 PM
Quote from: Hawkinole on April 06, 2020, 02:42:14 AM
We still have little testing in Iowa. Our governor closed schools early, but we have no stay-at-home order.
So Fearless runs amok - or in his case limps :c002:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2020, 02:29:09 PM
I have read the reason we call it "The Spanish Flu" is because Spain was not in WW I so they reported this dangerous strain of influenza.  It was other places first, but reported first by them, so folks thought it started there.

The countries at war did not want the news to be let out of the bag as it would harm the war effort.

It killed more than died in the war.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 06, 2020, 02:31:28 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 06, 2020, 02:29:09 PM
It killed more than died in the war.
Like the mosquito
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2020, 02:40:21 PM
One "news program" I'd watch is "news from a year ago today".  Just show the top 3-4 stories of a year ago.  I am pretty sure most of the time we'd realize that was really over hyped as a thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 06, 2020, 02:56:47 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 05, 2020, 11:37:45 PM
The old, the poor, the unhealthy.......that's a majority of Alabama, no matter the race. 
Illinois may be 75% white, but Chicago certainly isn't, lol.  You're posting this stuff and I'm not seeing anything meaningful to glean from it.  You give the racial makeup of a state, when the virus is highest in urban areas. 
.
You see the Birmingham data, but Montgomery negates it.  And why do you want my opinion so much?  Here, OAM, here's a scatter of data that doesn't point towards anything, whattaya think? 
.
I don't think much of anything of it.
But you asked him a question and he's tried to answer it after much research.
Did you not really want to know the answer?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2020, 04:08:30 PM
OK, so I just completely disinfected this place. This thread is now open for virus discussion, quarantine ideas, and general news posting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 06, 2020, 04:11:15 PM
Can i have a Yuengling?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2020, 04:13:26 PM
After all that hard work, I need one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 06, 2020, 04:16:16 PM
Scotch?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2020, 04:26:53 PM
I think I'll unscrew a Corona.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 06, 2020, 04:30:00 PM
I'd rather have the Virus
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 06, 2020, 04:43:57 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 06, 2020, 02:56:47 PM
But you asked him a question and he's tried to answer it after much research.
Did you not really want to know the answer?
I don't see an answer from the research.  It's unfortunate, but that's often the case.  If I'm missing something, I'd love to be shown what it is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 06, 2020, 04:54:13 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 06, 2020, 02:16:51 PM
Fixed it.
I have trouble believing anyone could be living through what we are living through in this country right now and post something like “this country values the economy above all else.”

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 06, 2020, 05:08:50 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 06, 2020, 04:43:57 PM
I don't see an answer from the research.  It's unfortunate, but that's often the case.  If I'm missing something, I'd love to be shown what it is.
When I saw it, I agreed. I didn't really see any correlation to be drawn from the data. 

If there is a racial component [african-americans disproportionately hit] it wasn't clearly shown by the data. It looked uncorrelated in the other metros even though Birmingham had higher numbers than the others.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 06, 2020, 05:12:21 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on April 06, 2020, 04:54:13 PM
I have trouble believing anyone could be living through what we are living through in this country right now and post something like “this country values the economy above all else.”


How are things down there in the hamlets
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 06, 2020, 05:23:58 PM
Would anybody else here be onboard with a permanent travel ban to/from China? 

I’m 100% down. Don’t let anyone from China or anyone that’s stepped foot in China come into the United States ever again. I’m so down with that. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 06, 2020, 05:26:16 PM
Until simple tests by micro biologists are availible that's what we might have
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 06, 2020, 05:46:37 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 06, 2020, 05:26:16 PM
Until simple tests by micro biologists are availible that's what we might have
Hopefully we never have those tests, and people from China will be forbidden from entering the US. Ban China permanently and the risk of another one of these pandemics falls dramatically. Would be a great day for our country if US leadership wised up and got rough with China.

No more Mr. Nice Guy. Time to kick some Chinese ass.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 06, 2020, 05:48:48 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on April 06, 2020, 04:54:13 PM
I have trouble believing anyone could be living through what we are living through in this country right now and post something like “this country values the economy above all else.”
I agree 100%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 06, 2020, 05:52:05 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 06, 2020, 05:23:58 PM
Would anybody else here be onboard with a permanent travel ban to/from China?

I’m 100% down. Don’t let anyone from China or anyone that’s stepped foot in China come into the United States ever again. I’m so down with that.
How about an open-ended ban, contingent in China drastically changing its behavior?  Or its regime?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2020, 05:53:42 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 06, 2020, 05:08:50 PM
When I saw it, I agreed. I didn't really see any correlation to be drawn from the data.

If there is a racial component [african-americans disproportionately hit] it wasn't clearly shown by the data. It looked uncorrelated in the other metros even though Birmingham had higher numbers than the others.

Yep, there was nothing to conclude because it's too early. But, it showed nothing even close to the scenario originally implied (with the comment about the map), which I do not want to get into any further at this point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 06, 2020, 06:00:05 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 06, 2020, 05:52:05 PM
How about an open-ended ban, contingent in China drastically changing its behavior?  Or its regime?
Yeah that’s a much better idea lol. 

I’m just so flaming pissed at China right now that I’m not thinking rationally. 

I would be all for hammering China, throwing economic sanctions on them and anyone who trades with them, forcing US manufacturers to leave China, banning all travel to from China, and blocking all Chinese imports. I would be so down for just ripping them to shreds. 

Unfortunately, I think all that would do would make the dictator stronger. Whenever the US has tried to hammer a country like that, it’s never lead to a change of leadership. It just rallies the brainwashed people around the dictator and makes him even stronger. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 06, 2020, 06:10:36 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 06, 2020, 05:12:21 PM
How are things down there in the hamlets
Hanging in there.  As of 10 AM WV had 345 positive tests out of 9,940 (3.47%).  There have been 4 reported deaths. The county I live in still hasn’t had a positive reported case yet but that may be changing.  My wife heard through her connections today that a nursing home resident around here tested positive, so, we’ll see how that pans out.  Supplies in stores are a little better than they were 3 weeks ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 06, 2020, 07:48:25 PM
I hope this doesn't count as so political, but in the theme of Badge talking elections, Wisconsin is apparently set to have one tomorrow amid some battles over it. Super not good. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2020, 08:08:32 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 06, 2020, 07:48:25 PM
I hope this doesn't count as so political, but in the theme of Badge talking elections, Wisconsin is apparently set to have one tomorrow amid some battles over it. Super not good.
I meant to post already and forgot.


Executive order by the Governor postponed until June.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 06, 2020, 08:14:00 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2020, 08:08:32 PM
I meant to post already and forgot.


Executive order by the Governor postponed until June.
Supreme court already blocked that and sided with the legislature, so it's set to go on. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 06, 2020, 08:16:46 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on April 06, 2020, 04:54:13 PM
I have trouble believing anyone could be living through what we are living through in this country right now and post something like “this country values the economy above all else.”


Well the obvious evidence for this hasn't transpired yet.
We'll all go back to normal a little while before we should.  And the virus will spike again.  I'd love to be wrong, but we all already acknowledge there is a sliding scale of lives to economics, but we're not even halfway into this thing.
.
Just watch.   You might have less trouble believing it then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2020, 08:18:46 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 06, 2020, 08:14:00 PM
Supreme court already blocked that and sided with the legislature, so it's set to go on.
What? Just NOW? WTF.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on April 06, 2020, 08:22:51 PM
Yes, 4-2,  one justice, which is up for reelection tomorrow recused himself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 06, 2020, 08:24:50 PM
Quote from: MarqHusker on April 06, 2020, 08:22:51 PM
Yes, 4-2,  one justice, which is up for reelection tomorrow recused himself.
Seems to be someone making some kind of power play over a supreme court seat with some kind of voter rolls case in the balance before whatever happens in November. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2020, 08:26:21 PM
Nothing more than a partisan pissing contest - one which put the citizens of Wisconsin in harm's way. Inexcusable. 

I still froth at the mouth that the primary was held here, 3 weeks ago. Some of those people are dying today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 06, 2020, 08:30:19 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2020, 08:26:21 PM
Nothing more than a partisan pissing contest - one which put the citizens of Wisconsin in harm's way. Inexcusable.

I still froth at the mouth that the primary was held here, 3 weeks ago. Some of those people are dying today.
Also of note, the pandemic means there's no one to work polling places, to Milwaukee county was set to have five, as of three days ago. 

Gotta reset and offer some kind of absentee arrangement. Just have to. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 06, 2020, 08:34:11 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 06, 2020, 08:16:46 PM
Well the obvious evidence for this hasn't transpired yet.
We'll all go back to normal a little while before we should.  And the virus will spike again.  I'd love to be wrong, but we all already acknowledge there is a sliding scale of lives to economics, but we're not even halfway into this thing.
.
Just watch.  You might have less trouble believing it then.
Considering everyone is going to have a different opinion about when the economy should open back up there’s a better chance you will think you were right and I still won’t believe it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 06, 2020, 08:57:22 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on April 06, 2020, 08:34:11 PM
Considering everyone is going to have a different opinion about when the economy should open back up there’s a better chance you will think you were right and I still won’t believe it.
Sure, we're all somewhere on that sliding scale of lives/economic health.  It's not about me being right - we all think we're right. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 06, 2020, 09:01:55 PM
I'd say the obvious evidence is in

the economy has been given a huge hit in just a few weeks

if the country valued the economy above all else, we wouldn't be in this weird world that values toilet paper above all else
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 06, 2020, 09:22:40 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 06, 2020, 09:01:55 PM
I'd say the obvious evidence is in

the economy has been given a huge hit in just a few weeks

if the country valued the economy above all else, we wouldn't be in this weird world that values toilet paper above all else
Again, we're still in the early stages.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 06, 2020, 09:27:09 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 06, 2020, 08:16:46 PM
Well the obvious evidence for this hasn't transpired yet.
We'll all go back to normal a little while before we should.  And the virus will spike again.  I'd love to be wrong, but we all already acknowledge there is a sliding scale of lives to economics, but we're not even halfway into this thing.
.
Just watch.  You might have less trouble believing it then.
But you already made your categorical statement as if all the evidence were in.
Carry on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 06, 2020, 09:33:15 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 06, 2020, 09:22:40 PM
Again, we're still in the early stages. 
I agree, but the economy is suffering significantly

even in the early stages
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 06, 2020, 09:54:14 PM
I fried catfish for dinner this evening.  Hadn’t had it in forever. It was so good.  I didn’t do anything special to it.  Soaked it in milk and then just rolled it in Zataran’s New Orleans style meal I bought at Kroger.  Added a little pepper and Lawry’s to it.  Really good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 06, 2020, 10:01:03 PM
And I increased my laps on my stairs yesterday to 89.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 06, 2020, 10:08:51 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 06, 2020, 09:27:09 PM
But you already made your categorical statement as if all the evidence were in.
Carry on.
Well I happen to think it obvious before the fact.  Sure.  It's called a prediction, lol.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 06, 2020, 10:09:09 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on April 06, 2020, 09:54:14 PM
I fried catfish for dinner this evening.  Hadn’t had it in forever. It was so good.  I didn’t do anything special to it.  Soaked it in milk and then just rolled it in Zataran’s New Orleans style meal I bought at Kroger.  Added a little pepper and Lawry’s to it.  Really good.
Yes, this, please, this, yes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 06, 2020, 10:49:44 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 06, 2020, 10:09:09 PM
Yes, this, please, this, yes.
Lol. That was kind of my reaction as I was eating it. Sometimes you’re just in the right mood for something and it hits the spot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 06, 2020, 11:04:52 PM
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is now in intensive care. Jesus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 07, 2020, 12:06:35 AM
But he was assured that the virus would be over in April, because of the heat....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 07, 2020, 01:44:47 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 07, 2020, 12:06:35 AM
But he was assured that the virus would be over in April, because of the heat....
It is not a good thing to surrender to schadenfreude.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 07, 2020, 02:13:36 AM
oh FFS
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2020, 07:08:09 AM
Model - 1967 yesterday
Actual - 1255

Deaths US.  I think the models will be revised downward again shortly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2020, 07:30:35 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 07, 2020, 07:08:09 AM
Model - 1967 yesterday
Actual - 1255

Deaths US.  I think the models will be revised downward again shortly.
I'm following too. So far I'm "pleased" to see the downward trend, but I'll really be pleased when this is done.


I told my dock mates at the "party" Saturday that we'll be launching in June. That's what I believe. 

Governors extend the general stay at home through Memorial Day to avoid the parades and all that, while allowing certain non-essential businesses in certain areas the option to reopen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2020, 08:53:18 AM
https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-chicago-coronavirus-deaths-demographics-lightfoot-20200406-77nlylhiavgjzb2wa4ckivh7mu-story.html


This is along the lines of what I was getting at with my Alabama research the other day. I'm glad this data is starting to come out. People need to see it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 07, 2020, 09:19:04 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2020, 08:53:18 AM
https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-chicago-coronavirus-deaths-demographics-lightfoot-20200406-77nlylhiavgjzb2wa4ckivh7mu-story.html


This is along the lines of what I was getting at with my Alabama research the other day. I'm glad this data is starting to come out. People need to see it.
It's sad, and so predictable.  So many challenges for those in the disadvantaged socioeconomic classes, and crises like this one only magnify the problems.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2020, 09:30:36 AM
I think we may see adjusted guidelines pretty soon, 10-14 days.  Whether governors and mayors follow them is a question.  I think some things can be opened up to an extent, just as grocery stores are open now.

We went to Costco this AM, not very crowded, 90% of folks wearing masks, full stock of everything I saw.  Premium gas was $1.69, I topped off the tank.

Costco has a lot of usual things closed like samples and the food area etc.  Anyone elderly or immune compromised should stay inside for a while I think.

Young folks may be able to get back to quasi-normal with limits fairly soon.  Restaurants might open with fewer tables available, especially outside dining.  Businesses might reopen with limited numbers of folks coming in at a time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on April 07, 2020, 11:38:10 AM
I haven't read the posts here lately. I have a few surgical masks for close encounters that I acquired in February when I intended to fly to Tucson to see my folks. Well, they didn't want to see me, now. 

Most of the masks I gave to my daughter who works in a grocery store while she is attending college.

Some of the masks I sent my octogenarian folks since they are more at risk than me.

I am considering inserting coffee filters into my bandanas as a makeshift mask.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 07, 2020, 11:56:04 AM
My mom has made cloth masks for the whole family.  My wife is wearing them while she works as a PT at their outpatient clinic.  I wore one to the store the other day.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2020, 12:05:57 PM
Really the sole purpose of a mask of this ilk is to prevent YOU from infecting someone else.  The protection it affords YOU personally is minimal, to zero.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 07, 2020, 12:09:18 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/7tDMprF.jpg)

This is how I entered the gas station by me last night.  It felt like I should be robbing the place. 
.
And yes, wearing such things is for other people, not for yourself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2020, 12:18:35 PM
Mask protocol for the public has been changing, it seems. It doesn't protect the person wearing it, "they" now say. For weeks we were told to not bother.

Mask protocol for health care workers has not changed at all. They wear them for their own protection (and others), we're told, as in PPE (Personal Protective Equipment). 

OK then. I have my answer.

Mrs. 847 took two surgical masks we had and beefed them up. If I go out in a public place (for cigars or booze), I'll be wearing one, along with glasses. For my protection primarily, but also in consideration of others.

The N95's I found have been donated already. I felt bad keeping them when so many are needed.


Has anyone tried to find elastic anywhere? Elastic is the new TP. We have some coming, thankfully, from a nice family friend. 

Mrs. 847 will have enough material to make 500 masks, which will be dropped off at the police station this weekend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 07, 2020, 12:22:10 PM
Just drove from south Florida to Michigan overnight- to be with mom who is in her final hours.  

Traffic was very light.  There was an eeriness to it. Drive through only for food and even many gas stations had doors locked.  

Perhaps the most unique thing was the police checkpoints at all the exits at and around entrance to Florida. It’s like a movie, but real. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2020, 12:25:19 PM
I offer my deepest sympathy HB. Best wished to your mom and her family.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2020, 12:26:38 PM
The quality of the mask is not the only important factor.  One has to wear it properly to have much personal protection, and most folks don't know how to wear them, believe it or not.  Most also don't appreciate how often they need to be discarded (or washed if possible).  Wearing a mask may give one too much confidence when it simply is not effective.

If someone sneezes and you have a mask on, the microdroplets can penetrate from the side, or land on the exterior of the mask and then get on your hands which then may go to adjust your mask and infect your eyes or nose or mouth.  If you atomize for example some fine carbon black to smudge a mask, you would find most wearers would have carbon black all over their face in about 15 minutes.

And of course if the edge fit is not tight ....

I had to have a respirator when I was working and we had to be fitted for it and tested for how to wear it properly.  These things are rather uncomfortable and the cartridges have to be replaced fairly often, but they would provide decent protection so long as you don't touch the outside of them and then transfer to your orifi.

But even a crude mask will prevent your sneeze from creating a large cloud of droplets around you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2020, 12:32:58 PM
I've been trained on how to wear a mask too. So has my wife, being in the healthcare industry for so long. She took an N95, studied it, and now can make something extremely close to it - layers and all. The fit is tight too. You tube is a nice tool.

When I went to my doctor in early January, while sick, he gave me some masks - the surgical kind. He knew I would be doing air travel quite a bit in late January and throughout February. He told me to wear the masks on the plane. I actually did, on the last two flights. I'll admit that now.

Those are the masks that are now beefed up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 07, 2020, 12:34:21 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 07, 2020, 11:56:04 AM
My mom has made cloth masks for the whole family.  My wife is wearing them while she works as a PT at their outpatient clinic.  I wore one to the store the other day. 
We bought a couple of cloth masks, and I wore mine when I had to go to the store on Friday. I felt like a complete and total doofus. 

Err... Even more of a complete and total doofus than normal, I should say...

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 07, 2020, 12:05:57 PM
Really the sole purpose of a mask of this ilk is to prevent YOU from infecting someone else.  The protection it affords YOU personally is minimal, to zero.
I don't know that I buy that. Any barrier is better than no barrier. It makes you much less likely to inhale airborne droplets containing the virus--and even if some of the virus gets through a cloth mask, it will reduce the viral load and perhaps give your body a smaller dose for your immune system to attack. 

What I would say is that I suspect a lot of people with the mask/gloves thing get a false sense of safety and then may be more reckless. In high school, I was a "sandwich artist" at Subway and one of the reasons that they didn't wear gloves is that it's much more important to regularly wash your hands (and not touch your face) than to wear gloves, because the virus doesn't seep through the skin on your hands. If you're wearing gloves and forget not to touch your face with the glove, you're just as screwed as if you did it with your bare finger. Gloves and masks aren't magic.

My protocol if I leave the house for an errand is to take sanitary wipes with me in the car. When I get to my location, I'll put on my mask. When I get out of the store and load the car, the first thing I do when I get into the car (before touching the steering wheel, before starting the ignition, etc) is to use the sanitary wipe to wash my hands, remove the mask, wipe down my hands AGAIN, and then I'm good to go. The idea is to not allow myself to be complacent about potentially touching my face with infected hands. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 07, 2020, 12:36:35 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 07, 2020, 12:22:10 PM
Just drove from south Florida to Michigan overnight- to be with mom who is in her final hours. 
Sorry to hear, brother. Good luck. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2020, 12:44:22 PM
Wearing a mask provides minimal benefits to the person wearing it.  That's a widely accepted fact.

https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/discussion/covid-19-when-should-you-wear-a-face-mask/ (https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/discussion/covid-19-when-should-you-wear-a-face-mask/)



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 07, 2020, 12:47:13 PM
My wife brought some masks home for us to wear when we go out.  I wore mine this morning when I ran to the grocery store and have to admit I felt like a dork even though many people are wearing them.  My aunt is making us some masks to wear with the flying WV on them.  If I’m going to wear a damn mask I might as well show support for my team.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 07, 2020, 12:52:24 PM
Covid-19 is Gator Bait!
.
Hey, WVU, burn Coronavirus' couch!
.
A Crimson Tide of sanitizer will warsh away the virus!
.
Every day you stay home - BUCKEYE sticker on your head.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 07, 2020, 12:53:30 PM
HB - I'm sorry.  It's good you could get down there.  I feel for you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 07, 2020, 12:53:51 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on April 07, 2020, 12:47:13 PM
My wife brought some masks on for us to wear when we go out.  I wore mine this morning when I ran to the grocery store and have to admit I felt like a dork even though many people are wearing them.  My aunt is making us some masks to wear with the flying WV on them.  If I’m going to wear a damn mask I might as well show support for my team.
The one my mom made for me, is from Longhorn fabric.  Hook 'em! :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 07, 2020, 12:54:48 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 07, 2020, 12:22:10 PM
Just drove from south Florida to Michigan overnight- to be with mom who is in her final hours. 

Traffic was very light.  There was an eeriness to it. Drive through only for food and even many gas stations had doors locked. 

Perhaps the most unique thing was the police checkpoints at all the exits at and around entrance to Florida. It’s like a movie, but real.
Very sorry to hear, I hope you're able to get some peace and closure from the visit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2020, 12:56:32 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 07, 2020, 12:52:24 PM
Covid-19 is Gator Bait!
.
Hey, WVU, burn Coronavirus' couch!
.
A Crimson Tide of sanitizer will warsh away the virus!
.
Every day you stay home - BUCKEYE sticker on your head.
I'm seeing a new avatar for Medina coming soon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 07, 2020, 01:05:17 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 07, 2020, 12:22:10 PM
Just drove from south Florida to Michigan overnight- to be with mom who is in her final hours. 
Good Luck,HB and best wishes
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 07, 2020, 01:15:32 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 07, 2020, 12:34:21 PM
My protocol if I leave the house for an errand is to take sanitary wipes with me in the car. When I get to my location, I'll put on my mask. When I get out of the store and load the car, the first thing I do when I get into the car (before touching the steering wheel, before starting the ignition, etc) is to use the sanitary wipe to wash my hands, remove the mask, wipe down my hands AGAIN, and then I'm good to go. The idea is to not allow myself to be complacent about potentially touching my face with infected hands.
Pretty much the ritual I've drilled into Cindy and myself,.Haven't been wearing masks but will probably implement,haven't been coughing or sneezing so masks have been a hassle,but certainly a courtesy for others.Trying to work up the nerve to go but some paint
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2020, 01:21:11 PM
Hopefully, "we" will continue some of these practices for life and reduce incidence of illnesses of other types.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2020, 01:26:03 PM
I've been thinking about that. This is going to change habits for a lot of people.

Now, I will never, ever have to take my wife to a movie theater.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 07, 2020, 01:52:47 PM
I like going to the movie theaters for really big blockbuster movies.  Things like Star Wars, Lord of The Rings, Avengers.  So we go probably 2-4x per year.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: rolltidefan on April 07, 2020, 01:54:09 PM
@Honestbuckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=37) sorry to hear that. good on you for making that trek for her.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 07, 2020, 02:04:52 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/f1XDzfd.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/Z7awh7H.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 07, 2020, 03:28:09 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2020, 08:53:18 AM
https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-chicago-coronavirus-deaths-demographics-lightfoot-20200406-77nlylhiavgjzb2wa4ckivh7mu-story.html


This is along the lines of what I was getting at with my Alabama research the other day. I'm glad this data is starting to come out. People need to see it.
Regarding the veteran with asthma who died, VA hospitals are where veterans go to die.  I don't know the fix, but I know that they aren't any good.  I know an LPN (she's attending a friend of mine who's in hospice) whose first nursing job was in a VA hospital.  She said that on any given day, 1/4 to 1/3 of the staff weren't even there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 07, 2020, 03:59:37 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 07, 2020, 01:21:11 PM
Hopefully, "we" will continue some of these practices for life and reduce incidence of illnesses of other types.
The wildlife markets in Asia (mainly China- but not just) and the bushmeat trade in Africa are what will cause these types of serious illnesses. 

The US and the EU need to put immense pressure on Asian and African nations to close wildlife markets and end the bush meat trade. If they refuse, we should end it for them. Send a couple drones with missiles to blow the markets and poachers to smitherines.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2020, 04:32:11 PM
The outcry over killing civilians would be enormous obviously.  How many thousands of these markets exist in the world?  We might not have that many Hellfires.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 07, 2020, 04:35:45 PM
Wait, I thought this virus escaped from a lab in Wuhan. What do the wildlife markets have to do with it? 

I'm having trouble keeping it straight...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2020, 04:38:23 PM
It is believed to be a zoonose, possibly from a pangolin, and not thought to be bioengineered.

Pangolins are eaten by some Chinese.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2020, 04:46:37 PM
Or from a lab maybe. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 07, 2020, 05:16:47 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 07, 2020, 04:35:45 PM
Wait, I thought this virus escaped from a lab in Wuhan. What do the wildlife markets have to do with it?

I'm having trouble keeping it straight...
It was either from a market in Wuhan or it was an accidental contamination in a lab in Wuhan that was studying bats. That’s all we know for sure.

There have been many cases of viruses jumping from wildlife species to wildlife species to humans in Africa and Asia because of wildlife wet markets and the bushmeat trade. HIV has killed how many tens of millions of people worldwide? Guess how that one started. Bushmeat trade in Africa.

We honestly got lucky with this one. It’s not as bad as it could be. Time to shut all the wildlife wet markets and bushmeat trade down. If the barbarians who live in these countries don’t want to do stop, the US has an obligation to it’s citizens and to the rest of the world to stop it for them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 07, 2020, 05:41:02 PM
Well, my wife's PT clinic is about to shutter its doors.  There aren't enough patients coming in to sustain it.  So she'll be out of a job in the near future with no real way to gain another one because this is an industry-wide problem.

We'll survive of course, we're fortunate that this isn't life or death for us, as it might be for others.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 07, 2020, 05:43:35 PM
Prolly get called back or be in demand when the virus tide subsides.PTs are always in demand.Good Luck
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 07, 2020, 05:44:45 PM
Don't think she'll be called back, her clinic is a private, local firm and most likely isn't going to make it.

There will be other PT jobs, once it's all over.  But she won't be able to work until the patients are willing to come back.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 07, 2020, 05:47:52 PM
Depends on the severity of the condition I suppose,and of course some type of cure for the virus
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 07, 2020, 05:50:53 PM
Not going to be a cure for the virus, herd immunity is all that's going to work. Realistically, it's all that was EVER going to work.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 07, 2020, 05:55:01 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 07, 2020, 05:50:53 PM
Not going to be a cure for the virus, herd immunity is all that's going to work. Realistically, it's all that was EVER going to work.
Have you followed the WHO "Solidarity" trial? 

It's not a "cure" for the virus, of course, but it's trying to find adequate treatments to reduce the mortality. And their goal is to fire this thing off MUCH faster than typical medical trials, across the globe, to try to quickly determine what will or won't work. 

If we can treat this thing without ICU beds and ventilators, it becomes a COMPLETELY different ball game. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 07, 2020, 06:01:32 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 07, 2020, 05:16:47 PM

We honestly got lucky with this one. It’s not as bad as it could be. Time to shut all the wildlife wet markets and bushmeat trade down. If the barbarians who live in these countries don’t want to do stop, the US has an obligation to it’s citizens and to the rest of the world to stop it for them.
I'm reeeeally glad you're not the president.  No offense, but whoa.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 07, 2020, 06:03:53 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 07, 2020, 02:04:52 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/Z7awh7H.png)
I heard you can buy those in vending machines in Japan...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2020, 06:04:57 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 07, 2020, 05:50:53 PM
Not going to be a cure for the virus, herd immunity is all that's going to work. Realistically, it's all that was EVER going to work.


Herd immunity doesn't work well with colds and influenza, and not well with many corona types.

They morph too much, though this one may not as much, we don't know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 07, 2020, 06:06:04 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 07, 2020, 05:50:53 PM
Not going to be a cure for the virus, herd immunity is all that's going to work. Realistically, it's all that was EVER going to work.


Where there's a Willie there's a Waylon
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 07, 2020, 06:08:45 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 07, 2020, 05:55:01 PM
Have you followed the WHO "Solidarity" trial?

It's not a "cure" for the virus, of course, but it's trying to find adequate treatments to reduce the mortality. And their goal is to fire this thing off MUCH faster than typical medical trials, across the globe, to try to quickly determine what will or won't work.

If we can treat this thing without ICU beds and ventilators, it becomes a COMPLETELY different ball game.
Yeah I've been watching the various approaches, with interest.  Definitely hopeful they'll come up with something effective, and much much sooner.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 07, 2020, 06:10:23 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 07, 2020, 06:04:57 PM
Herd immunity doesn't work well with colds and influenza, and not well with many corona types.

They morph too much, though this one may not as much, we don't know.
Vaccines don't work too well, either.

I've already predicted we're weeks-- not months-- away from having to uncork the bottle and let the virus run its course.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2020, 06:13:28 PM
Vaccines work "OK" on influenza.  And I think we can uncork this while still protecting those who are extremely vulnerable.

I "think" R naught for this is less than had been predicted/expected/forecast.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 07, 2020, 06:26:22 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 07, 2020, 06:13:28 PM
Vaccines work "OK" on influenza.  And I think we can uncork this while still protecting those who are extremely vulnerable.

I "think" R naught for this is less than had been predicted/expected/forecast.

They're going to have to be WILLING to be protected.  My parents are doing better about not going out, but they're still asking for visits from the grandkids, and still asking what our plans for Easter Sunday are-- they thought we could somehow get our extended family together (16 of us including their great grandkids), people ages 2yo up to 80yo.

I talk to them every day and remind them not to do stupid shit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 07, 2020, 06:33:15 PM
They may be exposing themselves to misinformation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 07, 2020, 06:34:47 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 07, 2020, 06:26:22 PM
I talk to them every day and remind them not to do stupid shit.
We all seemingly have to hammer this home - good on you
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 07, 2020, 06:35:12 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 07, 2020, 06:08:45 PM
Yeah I've been watching the various approaches, with interest.  Definitely hopeful they'll come up with something effective, and much much sooner.
There's already a safeguard to the virus...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jiWl0XRYbY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jiWl0XRYbY)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2020, 06:38:01 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 07, 2020, 05:44:45 PM
Don't think she'll be called back, her clinic is a private, local firm and most likely isn't going to make it.

There will be other PT jobs, once it's all over.  But she won't be able to work until the patients are willing to come back.

This would be a great time for her to plan her own business. Start it with current patients, on line, maybe?? Some are capable, minus the actual manual manipulation part of the job. I know an OT who is doing this very thing, to the best of her ability.

Don't get me wrong. I feel for you and for her, and for your family.

Times like these are very stressful, but times like these also present opportunity. Hopefully she lands on her fee, no matter what.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 07, 2020, 06:51:30 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2020, 06:38:01 PM
This would be a great time for her to plan her own business. Start it with current patients, on line, maybe?? Some are capable, minus the actual manual manipulation part of the job. I know an OT who is doing this very thing, to the best of her ability.

Don't get me wrong. I feel for you and for her, and for your family.

Times like these are very stressful, but times like these also present opportunity. Hopefully she lands on her fee, no matter what.
Thanks bud, we'll manage.  She's a manual physical therapist, her practice relies on manual therapy techniques so there's not much she can do right now.  She's done a few telehealth visits, she wasn't at all satisfied with them but her patients seemed to think it was better than nothing.

We've definitely been planning a more entrepreneurial venture for her, so this could be a catalyst.  Still can't do anything other than lay the groundwork though, until the patients decide they feel safe enough to come back.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 07, 2020, 07:04:11 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 07, 2020, 06:35:12 PM
There's already a safeguard to the virus...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jiWl0XRYbY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jiWl0XRYbY)
Deliberately putting God to the test is a heresy.
I've got pretty substantial backing for that opinion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 07, 2020, 07:06:21 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 07, 2020, 06:13:28 PM
Vaccines work "OK" on influenza.  And I think we can uncork this while still protecting those who are extremely vulnerable.

I "think" R naught for this is less than had been predicted/expected/forecast.
Influenza and coronavirii are completely differently family of virii.

We don't at this point even know whether infection/survival of COVID-19 confers long-term future immunity to COVID-19... The common cold is caused by a family of coronavirii, and we don't develop long-term immunity. If we can't vaccinate against the common cold, it's unclear whether we can vaccinate against COVID-19.

I'm seeing R-naught numbers in the 1.5 range recently. Which is lower than previously thought (2.0 or higher), but still not great. And R-naught will be lower when the world focuses on social distancing, so in the absence of those policies it might be much higher.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 07, 2020, 07:22:30 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 07, 2020, 07:06:21 PM
Influenza and coronavirii are completely differently family of virii.

We don't at this point even know whether infection/survival of COVID-19 confers long-term future immunity to COVID-19... The common cold is caused by a family of coronavirii, and we don't develop long-term immunity. If we can't vaccinate against the common cold, it's unclear whether we can vaccinate against COVID-19.

I'm seeing R-naught numbers in the 1.5 range recently. Which is lower than previously thought (2.0 or higher), but still not great. And R-naught will be lower when the world focuses on social distancing, so in the absence of those policies it might be much higher.
The reason we can't vaccinate against the common cold is because it mutates so quickly, is it not?
Have we determined how quickly the present coronavirus mutates?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 07, 2020, 07:29:13 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 07, 2020, 07:22:30 PM
The reason we can't vaccinate against the common cold is because it mutates so quickly, is it not?
Have we determined how quickly the present coronavirus mutates?
That's the issue with influenza. It mutates quickly so we're always fighting a crapshoot whether the yearly vaccines are the right ones for the actual flu we'll see.

My understanding is that the common cold is mild enough that somehow our bodies build up short-term, not long-term, immunity. So after you get the common cold, you're not going to get it again for a few weeks or months. But a year down the road, you might get the exact same cold you got a year prior. It's not so much about mutation as that somehow our bodies "forget" the immunity. 

We don't know whether more severe coronavirii will confer long-lasting immunity or not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 07, 2020, 07:45:45 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 07, 2020, 07:06:21 PM
Influenza and coronavirii are completely differently family of virii.

We don't at this point even know whether infection/survival of COVID-19 confers long-term future immunity to COVID-19... The common cold is caused by a family of coronavirii, and we don't develop long-term immunity. If we can't vaccinate against the common cold, it's unclear whether we can vaccinate against COVID-19.

I'm seeing R-naught numbers in the 1.5 range recently. Which is lower than previously thought (2.0 or higher), but still not great. And R-naught will be lower when the world focuses on social distancing, so in the absence of those policies it might be much higher.
Yup. 

Anti-viral drugs are the answer. 

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/04/13/the-quest-for-a-pandemic-pill/amp
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 07, 2020, 07:46:50 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 07, 2020, 06:33:15 PM
They may be exposing themselves to misinformation.
You mean exposing themselves to misinformation from the WHO? “Virus isn’t transmissible human to human.” Bastards.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 07, 2020, 07:48:01 PM
Trump suspends funding to the WHO. This guy is not F’ing around. I LOVE IT.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 07, 2020, 09:49:01 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 07, 2020, 07:04:11 PM
Deliberately putting God to the test is a heresy.
I've got pretty substantial backing for that opinion.
Is this a serious statement?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 07, 2020, 09:55:52 PM
Yes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 07, 2020, 10:32:56 PM
Not to leave you in suspense, Afro:

Matthew, Chapter 11 (KJV)
5 Then the devil taketh him up into the holy city, and setteth him on a pinnacle of the temple,
6 And saith unto him, If thou be the Son of God, cast thyself down: for it is written, He shall give his angels charge concerning thee: and in their hands they shall bear thee up, lest at any time thou dash thy foot against a stone.
7 Jesus said unto him, It is written again, Thou shalt not tempt the Lord thy God.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 07, 2020, 10:40:36 PM
Right.  
The wizard forbids you from pulling back the curtain.
You don't say.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 07, 2020, 10:54:57 PM
https://youtu.be/3bXWGxhd7ic
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 07, 2020, 11:09:03 PM
https://youtu.be/-LqWX8D_Tns
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 08, 2020, 12:14:47 AM
Trump is going to try to withdraw US funds for WHO
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 08, 2020, 01:17:13 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 07, 2020, 10:40:36 PM
Right. 
The wizard forbids you from pulling back the curtain.
You don't say.
You can sit on it and rotate.

You asked what was my support for the charge that to test God is heretical.  In asking, you accept the validity of God and heresy.  So I cite a fundamental passage from an appropriate text on God and what not to do in one's relationship with God.  So now you don't accept those things, and you go back to being your normal sarcastic smart-ass self about it.

Why should I bother to answer your next question?  There's no point in it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 07:08:36 AM
The common cold is caused by a large range of virus types, so you can get it from one and get it from another the next week.  You might have immunity for a while against the one and none against the rest of them.

Because it mutates rapidly, there is a plethora of types out there different enough not to be recognized.

Inluenza apparently is similar, but each year certain basic strains emerge (in China) and the vaccine is adapted to the major strains isolated from those cultures.  

I can recall several times getting a cold and starting to get well and then getting another cold.  Usually this doesn't happen because with a cold we're less mobile.  I would "dope up" on Vick's and go to work with a cold in general and just stay away from people.  (Sometimes I'd stay away without a cold.)

NPR had a nice piece on influenza virus years ago with the lady at the CDC who headed the team that concocted it each year.  They push the vaccine out widely to develop a level of herd immunity for society.

Publix here gives you a $10 gift card if you get a free flu shot from them.  I'm down with that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 08, 2020, 07:31:23 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 08, 2020, 01:17:13 AM
You can sit on it and rotate.

You asked what was my support for the charge that to test God is heretical.  In asking, you accept the validity of God and heresy.  So I cite a fundamental passage from an appropriate text on God and what not to do in one's relationship with God.  So now you don't accept those things, and you go back to being your normal sarcastic smart-ass self about it.

Why should I bother to answer your next question?  There's no point in it.
Yeah, you're assuming about my motive.  You label it sarcastic and smart-ass.  I label it as shedding light on the obvious flaw. 
If I create a text that claims I'm supernatural and then you request evidence, if all I can do is cite my text, that's invalid.  If I'm claiming supreme power and greatness and want to prevent being questioned, yeah, I'm going to forbid anyone questioning it.
.
Just trying to open your eyes, friend.
You probably shouldn't answer any of my religious questions, though, if you're unreachable.  That is, if you're going to suspend the rational thinking you apply to EVERY OTHER FACET OF YOUR LIFE for religion, then any conversation is a waste of time.  The willful suspension of rational thinking for this one thing is unfortunate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 07:42:55 AM
He merely notes that the Bible indicates it is wrong to tempt God.  It's part of the canon in effect.  If one if a Christian, it applies, unless you have an alternate Bible.  If you are not a Christian, it only applies when discussing the beliefs of Christianity.

I think it legitimate to use the religious text to validate what a belief is about that specific religion for adherents.

If we discussed what other religions believe, we'd resort to their texts and what their religious leaders have to say about it.  I don't know how else one could do it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 08:13:07 AM
Religion talk is worse than politics.

Stop.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 08:33:17 AM
This thread has meandered about quite a bit.

I was looking at the projected death toll for Spain, Italy, France, and the UK.  For a population of 230 million, it's 120,000 projected first cycle.

The US with a population of 330 million, it's currently 60,000.  So, it could be worse here than it apparently will be.  The projected number have continued to drop.  I gather R naught is not as high as they expected (guessed?). 

Yesterday's figure in the US showed a spike incidentally, so we're not out of the woods yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 08, 2020, 08:45:31 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 08:33:17 AM
This thread has meandered about quite a bit.

I was looking at the projected death toll for Spain, Italy, France, and the UK.  For a population of 230 million, it's 120,000 projected first cycle.

The US with a population of 330 million, it's currently 60,000.  So, it could be worse here than it apparently will be.  The projected number have continued to drop.  I gather R naught is not as high as they expected (guessed?).

Yesterday's figure in the US showed a spike incidentally, so we're not out of the woods yet.

Could be real, but a lots of the states/municipalities tend to use Tuesdays to "catch up" on reporting for events that transpired over the weekend.  If we wanted to smooth the data for better trend analysis, we might should be using something like a 3-day rolling average.  But honestly I think it's pretty pointless to try to get a daily snapshot anyway, the data is much more stable about a week later.  

Anyway, overall there is some good news here.  Hopefully we see the peak sooner than expected, and the area under the curve remains lower than expected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 08:48:53 AM
Yeah, the projections have been being lowered of late as we get more data.  So, good news, maybe the distancing is more effective than expected, maybe R naught is lower than expected, maybe some of us have some immunity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 08:54:09 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 08, 2020, 08:45:31 AM
Could be real, but a lots of the states/municipalities tend to use Tuesdays to "catch up" on reporting for events that transpired over the weekend.  If we wanted to smooth the data for better trend analysis, we might should be using something like a 3-day rolling average.  But honestly I think it's pretty pointless to try to get a daily snapshot anyway, the data is much more stable about a week later. 

Anyway, overall there is some good news here.  Hopefully we see the peak sooner than expected, and the area under the curve remains lower than expected.
My research has indicated this to be highly possible. I mean, people take Sundays off.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 08, 2020, 09:33:19 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 08, 2020, 08:45:31 AM
Could be real, but a lots of the states/municipalities tend to use Tuesdays to "catch up" on reporting for events that transpired over the weekend.  If we wanted to smooth the data for better trend analysis, we might should be using something like a 3-day rolling average.  But honestly I think it's pretty pointless to try to get a daily snapshot anyway, the data is much more stable about a week later. 

Anyway, overall there is some good news here.  Hopefully we see the peak sooner than expected, and the area under the curve remains lower than expected.
To add to your point, I believe that some hospitals/states are inflating the number of deaths of COVID. That is to say that they are counting people that die of other ailments and have tested positive for COVID as dying from COVID instead of dying WITH COVID. I read an article about this in Italy. The Minister of the Dept of Health in Italy stated that 88% of the people that were reported to having died from COVID, in fact died of other ailments and simply tested positive for COVID. In other words, there is a difference from dying OF COVID from dying WITH COVID.

The analogy is that someone with COVID and shows no symptoms, commits suicide. There are accusations that these people are counted in the deaths from COVID when obviously their death was self induced. Based on the way that hospitals and states like to use statistics to fund things, it is not inconceivable that there are those that would engage in this activity to drive up the numbers.

Another thing that would affect the R naught value would be the number of people that most likely either have or have had the virus but were never tested. I have heard and read quite a bit that speculates this number of people could be much higher than some are predicting. Until we can test everyone, I don't believe we will ever know the real R naught value.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 09:37:10 AM
My very preliminary take on this is we're very close to the hump now and things are going to start looking better this week.  I also think folks should be able to reopen under certain guidelines about mid month, while the elderly should be isolated along with anyone sick otherwise of course.

I'm starting to dip toes in buying some stocks again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 08, 2020, 10:03:35 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 07:08:36 AM
Publix here gives you a $10 gift card if you get a free flu shot from them.  I'm down with that.
   Right now the only way I'm down with that is if a team of NFL lineman catch me and sit  :bluegrab:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on April 08, 2020, 10:04:16 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 08:13:07 AM
Religion talk is worse than politics.

Stop.
FF to 1:24


https://youtu.be/47w3h8ljhxA
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 08, 2020, 10:08:09 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 08:13:07 AM
Religion talk is worse than politics.

Stop.
(https://i.imgur.com/EW1LzBZ.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 08, 2020, 10:16:06 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on April 08, 2020, 10:04:16 AM
https://youtu.be/47w3h8ljhxA
HA!"Cut it out or I'll pound you"!!! Classic
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 10:18:50 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axkik-8oFTs&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR0LOn9s-NkJRArXGxwDgrketetwhfcQDs_mnJvNySFVTTKq6HQHpCRhZ_4 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axkik-8oFTs&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR0LOn9s-NkJRArXGxwDgrketetwhfcQDs_mnJvNySFVTTKq6HQHpCRhZ_4)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 08, 2020, 10:26:26 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 09:37:10 AM
My very preliminary take on this is we're very close to the hump now and things are going to start looking better this week.  I also think folks should be able to reopen under certain guidelines about mid month, while the elderly should be isolated along with anyone sick otherwise of course.

I'm starting to dip toes in buying some stocks again.

Yeah I'm not sure what the assumptions on the IMHE model are, regarding when we move out of quarantine, when we end social distancing, when we resume large public gatherings, etc.  I didn't see those assumptions when I checked into it briefly a week or so back, and then stopped digging because I got sidetracked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 08, 2020, 10:31:07 AM
Note that R0 value is not an independent variable. R0 can be reduced if you do things like... Cancel/ban large public gatherings, mandate stay-at-home orders for nonessential business, encourage [and people comply] with social distancing in general. 

What I fear is that all the people who thought we were overreacting to COVID-19, if the final death toll comes in under 100K, will use that as evidence that we overreacted, rather than recognizing that our reaction is the REASON it stayed below 100K. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 08, 2020, 10:32:15 AM
CD - thanx evidently Bryant pranked someone,wonder what he did.Reminds me a few years back when Kyrie Irving did his Uncle Drew disguise.Pepsi MAX went to a pick-up game in Bloomfield, NJ pretending to shoot a documentary on a basketball player named "Kevin." When his Uncle Drew came into the game, some magical things happened

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DnKOc6FISU (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DnKOc6FISU)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 10:33:21 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 08, 2020, 10:31:07 AM
What I fear is that all the people who thought we were overreacting to COVID-19, if the final death toll comes in under 100K, will use that as evidence that we overreacted, rather than recognizing that our reaction is the REASON it stayed below 100K.
You can't fix stupid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on April 08, 2020, 10:39:44 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 08, 2020, 10:16:06 AM
HA!"Cut it out or I'll pound you"!!! Classic
Our kids quote Lucy's violent lines from that all the time, and we have to qualify, because they don't exactly translate to kids programming now.

They also wanted to watch Pinocchio on Disney+ at one point, the whole Pleasure Island scene is just kids smoking cigars, gambling, drinking beer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 08, 2020, 10:41:06 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 08, 2020, 10:31:07 AM
What I fear is that all the people who thought we were overreacting to COVID-19, if the final death toll comes in under 100K, will use that as evidence that we overreacted, rather than recognizing that our reaction is the REASON it stayed below 100K.
I think that's the reasoning of a lot of folks - stay the course and repeat that when we are out of the woods,when that happens
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 08, 2020, 10:45:15 AM
I think there will be a portion of the population that will believe that.  Heck, there's a portion of the population that believes what's currently happening, is a government-initiated attack on civil rights.  

And I found the assumptions on the IMHE model here: http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs (http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs)

It assumes currently level of social distancing through the end of May.  That constitutes the "first wave" and they believe that a second wave can be avoided through extreme efforts of testing, contact-tracing, and selective quarantine for those that have it.

I'm not sure we're going to get there on the high levels of testing they're discussing.  And I also don't think we're going to get to the end of May with the current level of restrictions. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 08, 2020, 11:19:07 AM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 08, 2020, 09:33:19 AM
To add to your point, I believe that some hospitals/states are inflating the number of deaths of COVID. That is to say that they are counting people that die of other ailments and have tested positive for COVID as dying from COVID instead of dying WITH COVID. I read an article about this in Italy. The Minister of the Dept of Health in Italy stated that 88% of the people that were reported to having died from COVID, in fact died of other ailments and simply tested positive for COVID. In other words, there is a difference from dying OF COVID from dying WITH COVID.

The analogy is that someone with COVID and shows no symptoms, commits suicide. There are accusations that these people are counted in the deaths from COVID when obviously their death was self induced. Based on the way that hospitals and states like to use statistics to fund things, it is not inconceivable that there are those that would engage in this activity to drive up the numbers.

Another thing that would affect the R naught value would be the number of people that most likely either have or have had the virus but were never tested. I have heard and read quite a bit that speculates this number of people could be much higher than some are predicting. Until we can test everyone, I don't believe we will ever know the real R naught value.
I think this might be half true. I think it was that they didn't die solely of COVID, but that there were other factors like previous heart or lung issues. 

I've not seen a clear enough list of what those other issues are. If it's just advanced stuff, there might be some legs to that. If it's asthma, diabetes  and hypertension, then it's fair to say lots of people with those diseases might not all be dying, but for something that has a nasty effect on the lungs. 

The suicide thing isn't a great analogy because the things are mostly independent (same with say a car accident). I mean, technically AIDS doesn't kill you, but it makes you super susceptible to everything else. And there's the flip side that if you die from something COVID related before you're tested, you often don't count anyway. 

(The desire to say "what if it's not actually really a problem" to the scale that they're saying is also an interesting one, something about how our brains react to these situations)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 11:28:00 AM
I read somewhere a while back the 80 percent of Italy's fatalities had 2 or more underlying conditions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 08, 2020, 11:34:36 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 08, 2020, 11:19:07 AM
(The desire to say "what if it's not actually really a problem" to the scale that they're saying is also an interesting one, something about how our brains react to these situations)
I think that's a good point... I can see a couple of reasons our natural response would be to minimize this...


I think #3 is true for a lot of people... They want this to be over, and they'll tell themselves that it's coming "soon" as we're just about to kick COVID's butt.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 08, 2020, 12:33:05 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 08, 2020, 11:19:07 AM
I think this might be half true. I think it was that they didn't die solely of COVID, but that there were other factors like previous heart or lung issues.

I've not seen a clear enough list of what those other issues are. If it's just advanced stuff, there might be some legs to that. If it's asthma, diabetes  and hypertension, then it's fair to say lots of people with those diseases might not all be dying, but for something that has a nasty effect on the lungs.

The suicide thing isn't a great analogy because the things are mostly independent (same with say a car accident). I mean, technically AIDS doesn't kill you, but it makes you super susceptible to everything else. And there's the flip side that if you die from something COVID related before you're tested, you often don't count anyway.

(The desire to say "what if it's not actually really a problem" to the scale that they're saying is also an interesting one, something about how our brains react to these situations)
I just found this a few mins ago from the New York Post


Quote
The federal government is classifying the deaths of patients infected with the coronavirus as COVID-19 deaths, regardless of any underlying health issues that could have contributed to the loss of someone’s life.

Dr. Deborah Birx, the response coordinator for the White House coronavirus task force, said the federal government is continuing to count the suspected COVID-19 deaths, despite other nations doing the opposite.

“There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition, and let’s say the virus caused you to go to the ICU [intensive care unit] and then have a heart or kidney problem,” she said during a Tuesday news briefing at the White House. “Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death.

“The intent is … if someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that,” she added.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/feds-classify-all-coronavirus-patient-deaths-as-covid-19-deaths/ (https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/feds-classify-all-coronavirus-patient-deaths-as-covid-19-deaths/)

So if someone dies in a car accident that has tested positive for COVID, we are counting that as a COVID death. That is completely wrong and is inflating the number of actual COVID CAUSED deaths. 

The bottom line is that the government and the media are playing fast and loose with the truth. I do agree that this virus is serious and we need to take steps to prevent it from spreading. My point is that the last thing we need is the government or the media spreading false hoods in the process. I want clear and credible information, not something to sensationalize the issue. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 08, 2020, 12:41:36 PM
I just saw something set to me on messenger

"Skydiver who forgot parachute dies of Corona Virus"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 08, 2020, 12:45:44 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 08, 2020, 12:41:36 PM
I just saw something set to me on messenger

"Skydiver who forgot parachute dies of Corona Virus"
I don't know how true this may or may not be, but it does cause a person to at least question what is going on especially after the gov't pretty much said as much. 


(https://i.imgur.com/4PUbDLx.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 12:49:37 PM
Well, the numbers are appearing to be leveling off right now in he US.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 08, 2020, 12:51:26 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 08, 2020, 12:41:36 PM
I just saw something set to me on messenger

"Skydiver who forgot parachute dies of Corona Virus"
Was it Seattlion?  It was Seattlion wasn't it? ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 08, 2020, 12:51:50 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 12:49:37 PM
Well, the numbers are appearing to be leveling off right now in he US. 
More folks remembering their parachutes these days? :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 12:55:42 PM
"In response to the COVID-19 situation, the University of Wisconsin is cancelling all youth programs through August 15, 2020. This includes all Badger Sports Camps for summer 2020. The main priority of our programs continues to be the health, safety and wellness of our participants, student-athletes, coaches, administrators and staff as we continue to monitor all developing and relevant information on the COVID-19 virus."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 08, 2020, 01:00:42 PM
but you can still vote in an election!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Geolion91 on April 08, 2020, 01:08:17 PM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 08, 2020, 12:33:05 PM
I just found this a few mins ago from the New York Post

https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/feds-classify-all-coronavirus-patient-deaths-as-covid-19-deaths/ (https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/feds-classify-all-coronavirus-patient-deaths-as-covid-19-deaths/)

So if someone dies in a car accident that has tested positive for COVID, we are counting that as a COVID death. That is completely wrong and is inflating the number of actual COVID CAUSED deaths.

The bottom line is that the government and the media are playing fast and loose with the truth. I do agree that this virus is serious and we need to take steps to prevent it from spreading. My point is that the last thing we need is the government or the media spreading false hoods in the process. I want clear and credible information, not something to sensationalize the issue.


Your example and the one from the article are completely different and you example takes it out of context.  I don't believe for a minute that any coroner is going to examine a fatality from an accident and write on the death certificate that cause of death was a virus.  I also highly doubt that anyone is going to bother testing them.

I also don't believe "Mike".  It's also unlikely he even works in a medical examiner's office.  There's no way to verify him, at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 08, 2020, 01:30:27 PM
Also--most numbers are not federal numbers to begin with. Most of the numbers are tabulated by states, counties, etc and roll up to the feds. 

In fact, one of the issues is that we may be UNDERCOUNTING deaths. 

From the NY Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/us/coronavirus-deaths-undercount.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/us/coronavirus-deaths-undercount.html)

From here (see Apr 6 update down the page): https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

"An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 01:31:15 PM
I imagine it happens a few times out there, like 8, in the whole country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 08, 2020, 01:49:08 PM
half of all coronavirus cases worldwide are in Europe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 01:50:51 PM
Half of known cases, I presume.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 08, 2020, 01:52:56 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 01:50:51 PM
Half of known cases, I presume.
Yes, my bad, half of confirmed cases worldwide are in Europe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 02:11:25 PM
We're not counting the 2.5 million cases in China, I guess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 08, 2020, 02:33:43 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 02:11:25 PM
We're not counting the 2.5 million cases in China, I guess.
LOL. +1. I didn’t even think about them or if they should be included in the worldwide tally, because their numbers are such obvious bullshit. 

China only had 70,000 cases! Only 3,000 died! No new domestic cases! All cases are imported! LOL.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 08, 2020, 02:46:54 PM
Badge going light on China,probably in for a gig at the WHO
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 08, 2020, 02:51:07 PM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 08, 2020, 12:45:44 PM
I don't know how true this may or may not be, but it does cause a person to at least question what is going on especially after the gov't pretty much said as much.


(https://i.imgur.com/4PUbDLx.png)
This comes a few posts after "The bottom line is that the government and the media are playing fast and loose with the truth. ... the last thing we need is the government or the media spreading false hoods in the process. I want clear and credible information, not something to sensationalize the issue."

This post is a political provocateur, and a hard-edged one at that, and a random person whose feed reads like that of a political provocateur. There is a very low chance they are credible and they are most certianly sensationalizing. The original article referenced was in fact from a media source, one known to traffic in sensationalism. 

There is oft profit to be made in telling you a source of authority is actually bunk, and the only true source is the person telling you it's bunk. It leverages a desire to see the world in a certain way. In this case you had the idea planted that actually the cases might be bunk en masse, and you went and found a piece of not very credible information and presented it as if it were something. 

It's possible the numbers are wrong. And it's possible they're being tinkered with for some kind of profit. It's also possible our low unemployment rate was tinkered with. It's possible the stock market is actually all a lie to control our level of calm and panic. It's possible all our voting numbers are just made up by a single party who uses a two-party split as a manner of behavioral control. Many outlandish things are possible. 

In the end, the idea that all these numbers are inflated for ill means is super sensationalistic. It's also probably massaging the truth to the point that it's pretty fast and loose (assuming these COVID overlap cases are car accidents and suicides rather than chronic lung and heart issues). If we want to stand for credibility and against sensationalism, we can't turn to the latter and put no weight on the former to do so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 08, 2020, 02:54:12 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 08, 2020, 02:46:54 PM
Badge going light on China,probably in for a gig at the WHO
guarantee you he could do a better job than the current head of the WHO. Shit I bet literally anyone here could. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 02:54:38 PM
I think we can pretty much accept that the numbers are off, but probably they are off plus or minus ten per day.  That a medical examiner would sign cause of death to COVID when a person died of a coronary is highly unlikely.  Given how many have been tested, the cross section of those known to have COVID and also died of a coronary is probably extremely small.  And the ME would not sign cause of death to COVID just because he ... wants to.  it's his career and license at stake.

This implies a conspiracy of ridiculous proportions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 08, 2020, 02:59:53 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 08, 2020, 02:51:07 PM
This comes a few posts after "The bottom line is that the government and the media are playing fast and loose with the truth. ... the last thing we need is the government or the media spreading false hoods in the process. I want clear and credible information, not something to sensationalize the issue."

This post is a political provocateur, and a hard-edged one at that, and a random person whose feed reads like that of a political provocateur. There is a very low chance they are credible and they are most certianly sensationalizing. The original article referenced was in fact from a media source, one known to traffic in sensationalism.
That very well could be and probably is.But what is this guy Mike is a whistle blower trying to do the right thing.I'd imagine that most in that line of work would do the right thing.How hard would it be to track him down and bring this to light if need be
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 08, 2020, 03:02:52 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 08, 2020, 02:54:12 PM
guarantee you he could do a better job than the current head of the WHO. Shit I bet literally anyone here could.
Probably should let them go to their own devices.That money could be used to purchase,beds,ventilators,gloves.masks,etc;and anything else pertaining to prevention/detection
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 08, 2020, 03:12:21 PM
Tedros Adhanom- the current Director-General of the WHO by the way- is the first head of the WHO in its entire 100+ year history (going back to its precursor in the League of Nations) - that IS NOT a medical doctor. The first one. Literally every other head of the WHO has been a medical doctor.

And how did he get appointed to be the head of the WHO? With heavy Chinese support. That’s how. 

By the way, he was implicated in health cover-ups of Cholera outbreaks in his home country of Ethiopia in 2006, 2009, and 2011.

This dude should be criminally investigated by the world court.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 08, 2020, 03:17:28 PM

Quote from: Mdot21 on April 08, 2020, 03:12:21 PM
Tedros Adhanom...

This dude should be criminally investigated by the world court.

Better yet, he should be tried and judged on The People's Court!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 03:32:00 PM
This is pretty widely available online. I remember hearing about it on the news or in a presser too.


“I think in this country, we’ve taken a very liberal approach to mortality,” said Dr. Birx.

“There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition, and let’s say the virus caused you to go to the ICU and then have a heart or kidney problem. Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death.”

“The intent is if someone dies with COVID-19 we are counting that as a COVID-19 death,” Birx said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 08, 2020, 03:35:23 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 03:32:00 PM
This is pretty widely available online. I remember hearing about it on the news or in a presser too.


“I think in this country, we’ve taken a very liberal approach to mortality,” said Dr. Birx.

“There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition, and let’s say the virus caused you to go to the ICU and then have a heart or kidney problem. Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death.”

“The intent is if someone dies with COVID-19 we are counting that as a COVID-19 death,” Birx said.
Which is wrong imo. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 08, 2020, 03:56:22 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on April 08, 2020, 02:59:53 PM
That very well could be and probably is.But what is this guy Mike is a whistle blower trying to do the right thing.I'd imagine that most in that line of work would do the right thing.How hard would it be to track him down and bring this to light if need be
Why track him down? It was on twitter. It must be true. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 08, 2020, 04:01:42 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 07:42:55 AM
He merely notes that the Bible indicates it is wrong to tempt God.  It's part of the canon in effect.  If one if a Christian, it applies, unless you have an alternate Bible.  If you are not a Christian, it only applies when discussing the beliefs of Christianity.

I think it legitimate to use the religious text to validate what a belief is about that specific religion for adherents.

If we discussed what other religions believe, we'd resort to their texts and what their religious leaders have to say about it.  I don't know how else one could do it.
Thank you.  You saved me another rant that would have violated Badge's guidance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 08, 2020, 04:04:01 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 08:13:07 AM
Religion talk is worse than politics.

Stop.
I'm down with that.
Does that guidance include posts designed to make religious people look like idiots?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on April 08, 2020, 04:05:02 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 08, 2020, 03:35:23 PM
Which is wrong imo.
If you have underlying issues but are then hit by a car, what's the cause of death?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 08, 2020, 04:08:11 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 08, 2020, 02:59:53 PM
That very well could be and probably is.But what is this guy Mike is a whistle blower trying to do the right thing.I'd imagine that most in that line of work would do the right thing.How hard would it be to track him down and bring this to light if need be
Then he's a stupid ding-dong. 

If he wanted to expose some kind of truth, he's actually expose it. He'd post detail. He's actually know that there wasn't a widely available anti-body test when he tweeted that. 

He wouldn't limit his commentary to tweeting replies to a political provocateur. The man had tweeted 2,000 times. One of them is not a retweet or reply. The vast majority are a rather bareknuckle sort of political conversation. As said above, it's certianly possible he is what he says, but in the end, he's only a hair more believable than the stock market and election results being all fiction. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 08, 2020, 04:10:59 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 08, 2020, 04:04:01 PM
I'm down with that.
Does that guidance include posts designed to make religious people look like idiots?

I'd say, yes.  Baiting is no different than discussing.

But I'd also say, just don't take the bait.  Nobody on this message board is going to change someone else's mind about religion.

I'll quote Kenny Rogers and say, "It don't mean you're weak, if you turn the other cheek." ;)


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 08, 2020, 04:15:02 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on April 08, 2020, 04:05:02 PM
If you have underlying issues but are then hit by a car, what's the cause of death?
A woman on a Cell Phone?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 08, 2020, 04:18:25 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 08, 2020, 04:08:11 PM
Then he's a stupid ding-dong.

If he wanted to expose some kind of truth, he's actually expose it. He'd post detail. He's actually know that there wasn't a widely available anti-body test when he tweeted that.
Unless of course he needed the job,I'd imagine he's full of it as CD pointed out an ME wouldn't throw his career out the window.Unless he was told(for funding puposes,perhaps) that the COD was virus related - not out of the realm
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 08, 2020, 04:19:35 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 08, 2020, 03:12:21 PM
Tedros Adhanom- the current Director-General of the WHO by the way- is the first head of the WHO in its entire 100+ year history (going back to its precursor in the League of Nations) - that IS NOT a medical doctor. The first one. Literally every other head of the WHO has been a medical doctor.

And how did he get appointed to be the head of the WHO? With heavy Chinese support. That’s how.

By the way, he was implicated in health cover-ups of Cholera outbreaks in his home country of Ethiopia in 2006, 2009, and 2011.

This dude should be criminally investigated by the world court.
I wonder if China funds the World Court too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 04:22:36 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 08, 2020, 04:04:01 PM
I'm down with that.
Does that guidance include posts designed to make religious people look like idiots?
YES.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 08, 2020, 04:23:14 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 08, 2020, 04:10:59 PM
I'd say, yes.  Baiting is no different than discussing.

But I'd also say, just don't take the bait.  Nobody on this message board is going to change someone else's mind about religion.

I'll quote Kenny Rogers and say, "It don't mean you're weak, if you turn the other cheek." ;)
Heh!  As you know, eventually, Tommy didn't turn the other cheek.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 08, 2020, 04:23:36 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 03:32:00 PM
This is pretty widely available online. I remember hearing about it on the news or in a presser too.


“I think in this country, we’ve taken a very liberal approach to mortality,” said Dr. Birx.

“There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition, and let’s say the virus caused you to go to the ICU and then have a heart or kidney problem. Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death.”

“The intent is if someone dies with COVID-19 we are counting that as a COVID-19 death,” Birx said.

So suicides and car accidents would be out, if we're talking about the bolded part. 

A follow from Fauci: "No, I can’t imagine if someone comes in with coronavirus, goes to an ICU, and they have an underlying heart condition and they die — they’re going to say, “Cause of death: heart attack.”  I — I cannot see that — that happening.  So I don’t think it’s going to be a problem."

In the end, this seems like a technicality that we're sort of blowing into something kind of big for the sake of some slight sensationalism. I'm going to assume the implied context because these are brass tacks people who probably want things generally correct. 

I mean, lets put it this way. You're a man at retirement age. Between you and your wife, I'm betting someone has some lingering thing that makes you more susceptible. We could argue that if you get it and the worse were to happen, it was the fault of the chronic thing you've been managing not the new thing you got that exacerbated it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 08, 2020, 04:27:38 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 08, 2020, 04:23:14 PM
Heh!  As you know, eventually, Tommy didn't turn the other cheek.
You just let me know when you see the Gatlin boys assaulting Becky, and I'll be right there next to you throwing punches. 

But this ain't that. ;)


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 08, 2020, 04:29:22 PM
The only downside I see to our way of counting COVID-19 deaths is that it makes us look as if we have a bigger problem than European countries who are counting differently do.

And at some future point in the debate, we can expect someone to advocate this or that domestic policy based on the "fact" that this or that country had a slightly lower death rate than we did.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 08, 2020, 04:33:39 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 08, 2020, 04:19:35 PM
I wonder if China funds the World Court too.
the ICJ is fully funded by the UN member states. So yes, China funds that court as well as the US and every other UN member state.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 08, 2020, 04:37:22 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=36Figw6gKRo
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 08, 2020, 04:38:07 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 08, 2020, 04:18:25 PM
Unless of course he needed the job,I'd imagine he's full of it as CD pointed out an ME wouldn't throw his career out the window.Unless he was told(for funding puposes,perhaps) that the COD was virus related - not out of the realm
I fall back to the stock market being imaginary thing.

There is just about no reason to believe this faceless twitter person, other than it sounds interesting. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 04:43:53 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 08, 2020, 04:23:36 PM
I mean, lets put it this way. You're a man at retirement age. Between you and your wife, I'm betting someone has some lingering thing that makes you more susceptible. We could argue that if you get it and the worse were to happen, it was the fault of the chronic thing you've been managing not the new thing you got that exacerbated it.
If that were me you're talking about, I'd say that the virus got me. I do have some mild conditions. I could lose a few pounds. I've had bronchitis and I smoke cigars. But, I manage and I can walk for hours and climb steps and all that. I work out. 

If anything is going to kill me with this thing, it would be the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 08, 2020, 04:44:18 PM
(https://fsi-live.s3.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/styles/epsa_crop/public/000_tweet_2.png)
(https://fsi-live.s3.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/styles/epsa_crop/public/000_tweet_1.png)

Why the hell doesn't twitter ban CCP officials? How does this motherf'er have a blue check mark next to his name when twitter is banned in China? Twitter and it's CEO are a joke.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 08, 2020, 04:52:10 PM
In actual Corona/COVID news, out of San Francisco, there's a Stanford Medical study being performed to determine if the novel coronavirus was present in California back in Fall 2019.

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Study-investigates-if-COVID-19-came-to-Calif-in-15187085.php (https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Study-investigates-if-COVID-19-came-to-Calif-in-15187085.php)

Some highlights:


Quote
The hypothesis that COVID-19 first started spreading in California in the fall of 2019 is one explanation for the state's lower than expected case numbers.

...

"Something is going on that we haven't quite found out yet," said Victor Davis Hanson a senior fellow with Stanford's Hoover Institute.

Hanson said he thinks it is possible COVID-19 has been spreading among Californians since the fall when doctors reported an early flu season in the state. During that same time, California was welcoming as many as 8,000 Chinese nationals daily into our airports. Some of those visitors even arriving on direct flights from Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in China.

"When you add it all up it would be naïve to think that California did not have some exposure," said Hanson.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 08, 2020, 04:52:34 PM
Let's say you have heart disease.

You get COVID-19, you get admitted to the ICU, you get sedated, intubated, and put on a ventilator.

36 hours later, while on the vent, you have a massive coronary and die.

Nobody here is claiming that you should attribute this death ONLY to heart disease and not to COVID-19, right? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 08, 2020, 04:57:13 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 08, 2020, 04:52:34 PM
Let's say you have heart disease.

You get COVID-19, you get admitted to the ICU, you get sedated, intubated, and put on a ventilator.

36 hours later, while on the vent, you have a massive coronary and die.

Nobody here is claiming that you should attribute this death ONLY to heart disease and not to COVID-19, right?
No. But that death shouldn't ONLY be attributed to COVID-19 either, imo. Someone in that same condition could've died from something like the flu. People with serious illnesses or compromised immune systems are way more likely to die from any viral or bacterial infection they come down with. Not just COVID-19.

What I'd like to know, is what the actual death rate is in relatively healthy people. How deadly it really is for people that are pretty much healthy and 18-45.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 04:58:33 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 08, 2020, 04:52:34 PM

Nobody here is claiming that you should attribute this death ONLY to heart disease and not to COVID-19, right?

Not in my view. It's important to note all conditions, however.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 08, 2020, 05:01:22 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 08, 2020, 04:57:13 PM
What I'd like to know, is what the actual death rate is in relatively healthy people. How deadly it really is for people that are pretty much healthy and 18-45.
Generally extremely low. https://www.vox.com/2020/3/23/21190033/coronavirus-covid-19-deaths-by-age (https://www.vox.com/2020/3/23/21190033/coronavirus-covid-19-deaths-by-age) 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 08, 2020, 05:02:02 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 04:58:33 PM
Not in my view. It's important to note all conditions, however.
Exactly. You count it as a COVID-19 death and list comorbid conditions. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 08, 2020, 05:09:20 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 04:43:53 PM
If that were me you're talking about, I'd say that the virus got me. I do have some mild conditions. I could lose a few pounds. I've had bronchitis and I smoke cigars. But, I manage and I can walk for hours and climb steps and all that. I work out.

If anything is going to kill me with this thing, it would be the virus.
So if a person has a history of bronchitis and a mild cigar habit, and they get the virus and die, we put that down as the virus? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 08, 2020, 05:10:51 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 08, 2020, 05:09:20 PM
So if a person has a history of bronchitis and a mild cigar habit, and they get the virus and die, we put that down as the virus?
If the get the virus, and are mild or asymptomatic, I'd say no. 

If they get the virus, have an extremely heavy cough, fever, shortness of breath, and then one of their comorbidities pop off and they die? Yes. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 05:11:35 PM
Yes.

I haven't had bronchitis since 2012 or so. Before that I had it a lot, and pneumonia twice. I've worked to improve my immune system.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 08, 2020, 06:03:13 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 05:11:35 PM
Yes.

I haven't had bronchitis since 2012 or so. Before that I had it a lot, and pneumonia twice. I've worked to improve my immune system.
The George Carlin way?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 08, 2020, 06:03:37 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 08, 2020, 04:38:07 PM
I fall back to the stock market being imaginary thing.
I must have missed something.Imaginations may run or manipulate it but it's not imaginary.Inaccurate or dishonest probably
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 06:07:35 PM
I hope it's real.  Thus far, it's been real for me.  Granted, it is basically just electrons in a sense.  But it pays my bills, so I'd say it's as real as my bill payments.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 08, 2020, 06:11:33 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 08, 2020, 03:12:21 PM
This dude should be criminally investigated by the world court.
Brought to us by the same people that back the World Health Org.?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 08, 2020, 06:12:58 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 06:07:35 PM
I hope it's real.  Thus far, it's been real for me.  Granted, it is basically just electrons in a sense.  But it pays my bills, so I'd say it's as real as my bill payments.
You've got a hell of an imagination,I need to get this creative.I was told the Horse Track could do the same thing.Must be that guy Mike who works for the ME Office
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 06:19:57 PM
I get bills.  I pay those bills with proceeds from the stock market.  Thus far, is works for me.  

I have (almost) no other sources with which to pay my bills.

My simple investment philosophy is to buy a stock and wait for it to go up.  If it doesn't go up, I don't buy it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 08, 2020, 06:22:51 PM
So a Ouija Board could come in handy or a coin flip perhaps.Do you have retirement plan from work(ing)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 06:28:50 PM
Yes.  Our retirement plan was basically all stock in the company, which is of course not a great idea, but they paid for it.  I now live off my investments.  I still have a few stock options to exercise which counts as earned income oddly enough.  I get a little bit of interest on bonds and money market stuff of course.  When I retired, I could diversify, and did, in a great hurry.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 08, 2020, 06:29:50 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 08, 2020, 06:12:58 PM
You've got a hell of an imagination,I need to get this creative.I was told the Horse Track could do the same thing.Must be that guy Mike who works for the ME Office
When I imagine our guy mike might be real, I can imagine all the things. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 08, 2020, 06:33:50 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 05:11:35 PM
Yes.

I haven't had bronchitis since 2012 or so. Before that I had it a lot, and pneumonia twice. I've worked to improve my immune system.
So a person with a long history of bronchitis, a couple bouts of pneumonia and an immune system that wasn't in great shape for much of his life. That sounds like you have at least a few other factors. 

And I think we can assume a modest to large number of those folks whose COD is COVID and X have something that's on the same gradient as you. Some are more severe, some probably less. When you get older (I know, rude), you just kind of rack up ailments. 

(Then there's weird ironies like the fact you can get in two decades with heart failure. Amazing times we live in)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 08, 2020, 06:36:37 PM
The "stock market" is real. When you buy a share of stock, you give money (through your broker) to a real human being who previously owned that stock. That share of stock means you own an infinitesimal piece of a company. That's a real thing. When you sell that stock, you sell it to another real human being and they (through their broker) give you money for it. 

Most of the rest of it is maddenly complicated and often seems completely disconnected from reality. Companies release good quarterly earnings and the stock drops. Companies whose economic prospects are rosy all drop in value because macroeconomic forces completely unrelated to their industries are bad, despite no effect on earnings. TSLA is a thing that consistently loses money but their stock is ~$400-500/share, for some reason...

And then we try to act like the DJIA is a good proxy for the economy, when the DJIA merely comprises the aggregate value of stock prices for just *30* companies. 

And that's before we get into "animal spirits" or technical investing--which as far as I can tell is reading a "chart" with absolutely no knowledge of the actual underlying business a company is in. 

So... I get that we consider much of it basically imaginary, because it's just buying/selling infinitesimal pieces of companies, often based on rational analysis but often also based on essentially following the trends up and down. 

But it's only "imaginary" because we've given it this place of reverence and esteem which exceeds what it is--a place where, based on whatever reason/strategy you choose, you can buy "shares" of ownership in corporations and keep or sell them as you see fit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 06:54:52 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 08, 2020, 06:33:50 PM
So a person with a long history of bronchitis, a couple bouts of pneumonia and an immune system that wasn't in great shape for much of his life. That sounds like you have at least a few other factors.

And I think we can assume a modest to large number of those folks whose COD is COVID and X have something that's on the same gradient as you. Some are more severe, some probably less. When you get older (I know, rude), you just kind of rack up ailments.

(Then there's weird ironies like the fact you can get in two decades with heart failure. Amazing times we live in)
Thanks Doctor.

I'm good. Really. Vitamins, lifestyle changes and a little luck have done me proud. Upon recommendation from a Doctor, of course, as well as work with DC's, PT, nutritionists and more. 

My numbers are good so far. You want something funny?

I wear a CPAP, even though tests have shown I no longer need it. I just got so damn used to it, I find it hard to do without. Every night I tell my wife that she gets to sleep next to a fighter pilot. She laughs, even after 15 years of wearing it.

As a consequence, I have 3 "ventilators" in my house (1 for home, 1 for boat, 1 for travel).

Yay me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 08, 2020, 07:09:49 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 06:54:52 PM
Thanks Doctor.

I'm good. Really. Vitamins, lifestyle changes and a little luck have done me proud. Upon recommendation from a Doctor, of course, as well as work with DC's, PT, nutritionists and more.

My numbers are good so far. You want something funny?

I wear a CPAP, even though tests have shown I no longer need it. I just got so damn used to it, I find it hard to do without. Every night I tell my wife that she gets to sleep next to a fighter pilot. She laughs, even after 15 years of wearing it.

As a consequence, I have 3 "ventilators" in my house (1 for home, 1 for boat, 1 for travel).

Yay me.
You have a couple hospitals beat!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 08, 2020, 07:10:57 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 08, 2020, 06:36:37 PM
The "stock market" is real. When you buy a share of stock, you give money (through your broker) to a real human being who previously owned that stock. That share of stock means you own an infinitesimal piece of a company. That's a real thing. When you sell that stock, you sell it to another real human being and they (through their broker) give you money for it.

Most of the rest of it is maddenly complicated and often seems completely disconnected from reality. Companies release good quarterly earnings and the stock drops. Companies whose economic prospects are rosy all drop in value because macroeconomic forces completely unrelated to their industries are bad, despite no effect on earnings. TSLA is a thing that consistently loses money but their stock is ~$400-500/share, for some reason...

And then we try to act like the DJIA is a good proxy for the economy, when the DJIA merely comprises the aggregate value of stock prices for just *30* companies.

And that's before we get into "animal spirits" or technical investing--which as far as I can tell is reading a "chart" with absolutely no knowledge of the actual underlying business a company is in.

So... I get that we consider much of it basically imaginary, because it's just buying/selling infinitesimal pieces of companies, often based on rational analysis but often also based on essentially following the trends up and down.

But it's only "imaginary" because we've given it this place of reverence and esteem which exceeds what it is--a place where, based on whatever reason/strategy you choose, you can buy "shares" of ownership in corporations and keep or sell them as you see fit.
To be clear, I am aware the stock market is real. 

The same way I'm aware I should put just about no stock in a faceless twitter "medical examiner employee" 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 07:19:26 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 08, 2020, 07:09:49 PM
You have a couple hospitals beat!
Not the one that I and others in my town heavily donate to. We are prepared here.

Education too, but that's another thread. Heh.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 08, 2020, 07:41:59 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 08, 2020, 06:36:37 PM
The "stock market" is real. When you buy a share of stock, you give money (through your broker) to a real human being who previously owned that stock. That share of stock means you own an infinitesimal piece of a company. That's a real thing. When you sell that stock, you sell it to another real human being and they (through their broker) give you money for it.

Most of the rest of it is maddenly complicated and often seems completely disconnected from reality. Companies release good quarterly earnings and the stock drops. Companies whose economic prospects are rosy all drop in value because macroeconomic forces completely unrelated to their industries are bad, despite no effect on earnings. TSLA is a thing that consistently loses money but their stock is ~$400-500/share, for some reason...

And then we try to act like the DJIA is a good proxy for the economy, when the DJIA merely comprises the aggregate value of stock prices for just *30* companies.

And that's before we get into "animal spirits" or technical investing--which as far as I can tell is reading a "chart" with absolutely no knowledge of the actual underlying business a company is in.

So... I get that we consider much of it basically imaginary, because it's just buying/selling infinitesimal pieces of companies, often based on rational analysis but often also based on essentially following the trends up and down.

But it's only "imaginary" because we've given it this place of reverence and esteem which exceeds what it is--a place where, based on whatever reason/strategy you choose, you can buy "shares" of ownership in corporations and keep or sell them as you see fit.
Tesla consistently loses money in large part because they have continually sacrificed the bottom line for the sake of growth. You almost can't grow at the insane pace that they have been growing and make money. It's basically impossible. Especially in a business as capital intensive as building freaking cars. At the end of the day Tesla is similar to Apple or Amazon imo- they have a better product than anyone else they compete with. At the end of the day, it's about the product. And that's why me and you had a little bit of disagreement last year on where they were headed. You thought they were going bankrupt, I thought they were going to take off- they have a clearly superior product to the rest of the market.

Valuation in the stock market is almost always about growth. Investors look for growth above all else. And FOMO on that growth story drives stock prices like Tesla up and up and up. Bezos sacrificed the bottom line for 20 years and poured everything into growing Amazon. His goal every year was to grow, not show as much profit as possible. And now Amazon is probably one of the three greatest, most valuable companies in the entire freaking world along with Apple and Saudi Aramco.

The stock market is real but at the same time it isn't. It's incredibly manipulated by big investors and by media. It's an illusion. It's perception. But perception is reality.

And in terms of actual dollars, it's real but not at the same time. Take Bezos for instance. He's listed as the richest man in the entire world, but I'd bet that 99.9% of his net worth is tied up in Amazon stock. People think he's got $120 billion sitting around in cash or something. He doesn't. Now he probably has some billions in cash, and he can probably go to almost any bank or lender and get 1% interest loan for any amount of money secured against his stock- but he doesn't have $120 billion in cash. And he has so much Amazon stock that if he tried to sell it all at once  and convert it into cash he'd never be able to, and even if he was able to he has so much it would make the share price go into fall and he wouldn't be getting $2,000 a share or whatever the hell it's at now. For some reason a lot of people have a hard time understanding this. They say oh Jeff Bezos should just donate $10 billion! He probably don't got $10 billion in cash laying around to donate.

In terms of straight cash homie- I'd bet that the Saudi king or Bill Gates probably have more cash than any single person. First one is pretty self-explanatory, and Bill Gates has been selling off large chunks of Microsoft stock for 30+ years straight.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 08, 2020, 07:59:12 PM
For @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 08:00:47 PM
Well, that's inappropriate. Ask someone else about meat slicers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 08, 2020, 08:15:39 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 08, 2020, 07:59:12 PM
For @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5)
LMAO
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 08, 2020, 08:27:06 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 08, 2020, 07:41:59 PM
And that's why me and you had a little bit of disagreement last year on where they were headed. You thought they were going bankrupt, I thought they were going to take off- they have a clearly superior product to the rest of the market.
Absolutely. I was highly concerned at the time that they were poorly-capitalized and over-leveraged. They've done well to raise more funds (once when I think they desperately needed it, and the second time when it was advantageous due to high stock price) and they've gotten to the point where I think they're at least close to funding themselves through operations.

I still think they're constantly on thin ice, but so be it. We'll see. 


Quote
And in terms of actual dollars, it's real but not at the same time. Take Bezos for instance. He's listed as the richest man in the entire world, but I'd bet that 99.9% of his net worth is tied up in Amazon stock. People think he's got $120 billion sitting around in cash or something. He doesn't. Now he probably has some billions in cash, and he can probably go to almost any bank or lender and get 1% interest loan for any amount of money secured against his stock- but he doesn't have $120 billion in cash. And he has so much Amazon stock that if he tried to sell it all at once  and convert it into cash he'd never be able to, and even if he was able to he has so much it would make the share price go into fall and he wouldn't be getting $2,000 a share or whatever the hell it's at now. For some reason a lot of people have a hard time understanding this. They say oh Jeff Bezos should just donate $10 billion! He probably don't got $10 billion in cash laying around to donate. 
He just got divorced, and this was a big issue. He doesn't have a big pile of cash, he has illiquid stock wealth. And his wife [due to community property] gets half...

The big issues were that he didn't want to give his ex voting stock and partial control over Amazon, so the divorce judgement basically had to turn her portion of the stock into non-voting, and probably has limitations on how much she can sell at once so it doesn't crash the price. 

So yeah... His wealth isn't entirely liquid.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 08, 2020, 10:35:45 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2020, 06:54:52 PM
As a consequence, I have 3 "ventilators" in my house (1 for home, 1 for boat, 1 for travel).
So,we all use to have a few bongs scattered about we just didn't make a big deal about it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 10:39:07 PM
I suspect the economy will open up partially in a week, ten days.  The vulnerable will stay sequestered.  The rest of us may be asked to distance, but go ahead and do stuff.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 08, 2020, 11:04:36 PM
Mistake
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 11:12:34 PM
Maybe. I'm not sure, we'll see in 7-10 days.  If we can protect those most vulnerable, I can see opening things back up to an extent while maintaining precautions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on April 08, 2020, 11:24:39 PM
I'd also put Sultan of Brunei in the camp of top owners of liquid wealth.  It would be interesting to know what Warren B's personal stake is in cash, considering the mountain of cash BH holds in its portfolio.

One thing that never ceases to amaze me, is how many people still don't seem to understand that for every stock or bond or other secondary market security that is bought, someone or some entity is on the other side of that trade.     These may be investments but they really are simply bets.  In the words of Billy Valentine,  you're just a couple of bookies (referring to Duke and Duke).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 08, 2020, 11:50:16 PM
On comorbidities, from Deborah Birx

“I think every time I’ve been up here about the comorbidities. Most of the people, and we have talked about the Italy data, the majority of the Italians who succumbed to this had three or more comorbidities. So this has been known from the beginning. So those individuals will have an underlying condition, but that underlying condition did not cause their acute death when it’s related to a covid infection. In fact, it’s the opposite. Having an underlying condition and getting this virus, we know it’s particularly damaging to those individuals.”

She reiterated for emphasis, “If you have asthma, if you have renal disease, if you have diabetes, if you have hypertension, these are pre-existing conditions that put you at a greater risk to having a worse outcome.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 09, 2020, 07:10:21 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 08, 2020, 11:50:16 PM
On comorbidities, from Deborah Birx

“I think every time I’ve been up here about the comorbidities. Most of the people, and we have talked about the Italy data, the majority of the Italians who succumbed to this had three or more comorbidities. So this has been known from the beginning. So those individuals will have an underlying condition, but that underlying condition did not cause their acute death when it’s related to a covid infection. In fact, it’s the opposite. Having an underlying condition and getting this virus, we know it’s particularly damaging to those individuals.”

She reiterated for emphasis, “If you have asthma, if you have renal disease, if you have diabetes, if you have hypertension, these are pre-existing conditions that put you at a greater risk to having a worse outcome.”
While I believe it would be impossible to separate those that died WITH Covid from those that died FROM Covid, it would be interesting to look at trends in places like New York in regards to causes of death.

I wonder about this because the military sent the USNS Comfort to NYC to serve has a 1000 bed hospital for non-Covid patients. It has been there over a week now and the last I heard, they had less than 50 patients sent to the ship. In a city the size of NYC and with the emergency they claim they are experiencing leading to a lack of suitable hospital bed space, you would expect that the hospital ship would have filled to capacity rather quickly. It didn't. 

So what I would like to see is something that compares the avg number of patients admitted and resulting deaths from Heart disease, renal issues, etc. prior to the Covid outbreak and what those numbers look like during the outbreak. I have a suspicion that the numbers of people that died from other ailments would be greatly reduced during this Covid outbreak. But without those numbers, we have no idea. 

And that is my point. Is there a significant increase in deaths due solely to Covid or are people that have died during this outbreak that would have normally been coded as dying from other ailments, now all being attributed to Covid? 

I was listening to a doctor on some news show saying that when a patient on Medicare gets admitted to the hospital with Covid, the hospital is reimbursed at a higher rate than they otherwise would be. When those same people are put on a vent, the reimbursement is even greater. That sure looks like an incentive to code anyone and everyone possible as a Covid patient. 

But to reiterate, I am NOT trying to say that ignoring Covid or not taking precautions is not the right thing to do. As someone that would be highly susceptible to severe complications from this virus, I understand the importance of doing what is needed to avoid being infected. But I also believe that killing our economy in the process is going to be even worse than the consequences of the virus. I also believe that when the crisis is over, we will look back and see that this virus was not much worse than a typical influenza outbreak. 

Knowing that we see these types of things come around every couple of years or so (Swine flu, H1N1, Ebola, SARs, MERS, etc) are we going to start shutting down our economy every time it happens? That could get ugly fast. 



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 09, 2020, 07:11:52 AM
The percentage of folks known to be COVID positive is quite low.  The vast majority of them did not die.  The intersection between those who are positive and those who died plausibly due to COVID is very small.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 09, 2020, 09:28:02 AM
Does this stock market rally suggest light at the end of the tunnel that is not an oncoming train?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 09, 2020, 09:36:36 AM
I doubt it

just suggests that the guys that control the market want some movement so that they can make money
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 09, 2020, 09:40:48 AM
How does movement make "the controllers" any money?  They must have made a ton when the market went down 28%.

You can of course buy the VIX if you want.  Most of the money in the market comes from institutions who tend not to trade that often.  Many of them have limits as to what they can trade and how much they have to put into the market versus bonds or cash.  There are speculators of course.  At one point I was looking at doing some straddles (buying put and call options on the same stock) but when this hit the premiums were way too high I thought.

Most "investors" do better when the market goes up versus down obviously.  I think the move up is an indication of some optimism that the economic damage of COVID may be less than had been feared a week ago.  Stocks are up about 1.5% already today.  I have no clue where they will finish.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 09, 2020, 09:46:12 AM
when the market is moving (going up and down) like it has recently in large swings, they sell early in the morning, driving the market down for the day, then buy like hell the next morning early driving the market up

Buy low, sell high
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 09, 2020, 09:52:24 AM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 09, 2020, 07:10:21 AM
1. While I believe it would be impossible to separate those that died WITH Covid from those that died FROM Covid, it would be interesting to look at trends in places like New York in regards to causes of death.

2. I wonder about this because the military sent the USNS Comfort to NYC to serve has a 1000 bed hospital for non-Covid patients. It has been there over a week now and the last I heard, they had less than 50 patients sent to the ship. In a city the size of NYC and with the emergency they claim they are experiencing leading to a lack of suitable hospital bed space, you would expect that the hospital ship would have filled to capacity rather quickly. It didn't.

3. So what I would like to see is something that compares the avg number of patients admitted and resulting deaths from Heart disease, renal issues, etc. prior to the Covid outbreak and what those numbers look like during the outbreak. I have a suspicion that the numbers of people that died from other ailments would be greatly reduced during this Covid outbreak. But without those numbers, we have no idea.

And that is my point. Is there a significant increase in deaths due solely to Covid or are people that have died during this outbreak that would have normally been coded as dying from other ailments, now all being attributed to Covid?

4. I was listening to a doctor on some news show saying that when a patient on Medicare gets admitted to the hospital with Covid, the hospital is reimbursed at a higher rate than they otherwise would be. When those same people are put on a vent, the reimbursement is even greater. That sure looks like an incentive to code anyone and everyone possible as a Covid patient.

5. But to reiterate, I am NOT trying to say that ignoring Covid or not taking precautions is not the right thing to do. As someone that would be highly susceptible to severe complications from this virus, I understand the importance of doing what is needed to avoid being infected. But I also believe that killing our economy in the process is going to be even worse than the consequences of the virus. I also believe that when the crisis is over, we will look back and see that this virus was not much worse than a typical influenza outbreak.

Knowing that we see these types of things come around every couple of years or so (Swine flu, H1N1, Ebola, SARs, MERS, etc) are we going to start shutting down our economy every time it happens? That could get ugly fast.




I numbered the stuff above to make the response a bit clearer

1. If you think this is impossible, then naming any cause of death is sort of meaningless. You could die with AIDS, but you'll never die FROM AIDS, none the less, lots of people contracting it would be an issue. And if COD has no meaning when it comes  to anything with a slightly systemic element, then most deaths will just be listed as "a lot of things." 

2. As I read, there were a bunch of bureaucratic issues with the boat, issues with admitting, policies, hospital to hospital transfer. I believe it was reported ambulances couldn't just roll up to the thing with fresh patents for some reasons.

3. It would be interesting to have that chart of overall deaths to look for a jump. Unsure if that data is tabulated live. I found some data from 2017 that about 7,700 people die a day. So the napkin math would get interesting there. 

4. Who was the doctor and what was the news show? I would certianly allow for the idea that there might be some weird incentives. But if you assume lots of hospital systems are overhyping a global pandemic for profit, it would be weird to turn around and trust any doctor and hospital. And as a man who would be susceptible, I assume you trust some medical folks. (If this were the case, I can’t imagine some chunk of the medical community wouldn’t speak out super loudly. I know in my area, the hospitals are taking some level of a hit because everything elective, i.e. a lot of money makers, are all on hold)

5. You’re telling me you have some high-end comorbidities, and that it is important to not get it, but if you got it and things went south, it likely wouldn’t be because of the disease? (referring back to No. 1) Anyway, it seems like this is a process of believing this is overblown and looking for reasons that’s the case. The level of skepticism toward something saying it could be so serious is raised to levels that are almost unreachable. And that’s fine, but it might end with a high level of skepticism toward the little bits of evidence that support the idea it’s overblown.

This also underplays the effect on the economy if it is in fact bad. If we let it roll super unchecked, our hospitals would get pretty hammered, as they’re close to that already. And if you know you can get sick, and you see images of people on cots lining a hospital hallway, you’re not trying to congregate. So in the end, you’re only talking about the degree the economy gets hit, not if it takes a large hit.

If it turns out to be not much worse than the normal flu run, that’ll be great. It’ll mean the death count at the end is considerably below the average flu season (as insane precautions have been taken). And if that’s the case, then we won’t do this again going forward. (Ebola is not in the same class as those other diseases, as it is much harder to contract and worlds more virulent. It seems as if this particular virus spreads much more rapidly than those others)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 09, 2020, 09:53:06 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 09, 2020, 07:11:52 AM
The percentage of folks known to be COVID positive is quite low.  The vast majority of them did not die.  The intersection between those who are positive and those who died plausibly due to COVID is very small.
How do you mean "plausibly"?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 09, 2020, 10:09:35 AM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 09, 2020, 07:10:21 AM
But I also believe that killing our economy in the process is going to be even worse than the consequences of the virus. I also believe that when the crisis is over, we will look back and see that this virus was not much worse than a typical influenza outbreak.

Knowing that we see these types of things come around every couple of years or so (Swine flu, H1N1, Ebola, SARs, MERS, etc) are we going to start shutting down our economy every time it happens? That could get ugly fast.
That's what I'm worried about... I worry that when this is all over, people are going to see the final death toll and say "hey, this thing was just the flu", not realizing that it was the enormous intervention to catch the spread before this got terrible that KEPT the final death toll low.

I think after >10 years on this site, people recognize that I'm not exactly prone to hyperbole. And politically, I'm not exactly a "trust the government" type that accepts their take on everything. 

I truly believe that COVID-19 is different. It has two things that make it particularly dangerous:


I don't think the governments of the world would be taking these extreme economic steps to contain COVID-19 if their health experts didn't realize that this is the real deal. 

That's why I worry that if we do a good job, everyone will say: "Ha! I was right! We overreacted!"

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 09, 2020, 10:13:19 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 09, 2020, 09:46:12 AM
when the market is moving (going up and down) like it has recently in large swings, they sell early in the morning, driving the market down for the day, then buy like hell the next morning early driving the market up

Buy low, sell high
I would advise you not to try this "tactic" yourself.  It doesn't work for obvious reasons.

The market is up this morning.  If you think "they" will sell this afternoon, we'll see.  Most of the money in the market doesn't buy and sell.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 09, 2020, 10:44:57 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 09, 2020, 10:13:19 AM
I would advise you not to try this "tactic" yourself.  It doesn't work for obvious reasons.

The market is up this morning.  If you think "they" will sell this afternoon, we'll see.  Most of the money in the market doesn't buy and sell.
The hedge guys and day traders have done a lot of "moving" the market in the past month.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 09, 2020, 10:49:57 AM
I think it trades on fundamentals, not speculation, when viewed over a bit of time.  It's not that it's up today that is important, but it looks to be up strongly for the week.

I don't think that reflects speculation.

I do wonder a bit where folks invest money for retirement etc. without using the stock market.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 09, 2020, 11:05:13 AM
I have a self-directed Roth that holds a lot of real estate in California. So does my wife.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 09, 2020, 11:06:58 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 09, 2020, 09:36:36 AM
I doubt it

just suggests that the guys that control the market want some movement so that they can make money
Good Point if you were connected in congress you could have already dumped your sagging portfolio.With out reprisals of any sort legal or financial.Give them a fair trial followed by a 1st class hanging - the lot of them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 09, 2020, 11:12:56 AM

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 09, 2020, 10:09:35 AM
That's why I worry that if we do a good job, everyone will say: "Ha! I was right! We overreacted!"
IMO no,it's rattled enough cages that only those baffled and blighted won't take notice.For instance I went to buy EverClear - the old cheap grain alcohol - gone except the price tag.And it wasn't cheap,like 47.00,so even the down and outs are paying attention
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 09, 2020, 11:33:39 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 09, 2020, 11:12:56 AM
IMO no,it's rattled enough cages that only those baffled and blighted won't take notice.For instance I went to buy EverClear - the old cheap grain alcohol - gone except the price tag.And it wasn't cheap,like 47.00,so even the down and outs are paying attention
Shudder

I had some of that before my first UW hockey game. It was not a proud evening. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 09, 2020, 11:46:50 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 09, 2020, 09:52:24 AM
I numbered the stuff above to make the response a bit clearer

1. If you think this is impossible, then naming any cause of death is sort of meaningless. You could die with AIDS, but you'll never die FROM AIDS, none the less, lots of people contracting it would be an issue. And if COD has no meaning when it comes  to anything with a slightly systemic element, then most deaths will just be listed as "a lot of things."

2. As I read, there were a bunch of bureaucratic issues with the boat, issues with admitting, policies, hospital to hospital transfer. I believe it was reported ambulances couldn't just roll up to the thing with fresh patents for some reasons.

3. It would be interesting to have that chart of overall deaths to look for a jump. Unsure if that data is tabulated live. I found some data from 2017 that about 7,700 people die a day. So the napkin math would get interesting there.

4. Who was the doctor and what was the news show? I would certianly allow for the idea that there might be some weird incentives. But if you assume lots of hospital systems are overhyping a global pandemic for profit, it would be weird to turn around and trust any doctor and hospital. And as a man who would be susceptible, I assume you trust some medical folks. (If this were the case, I can’t imagine some chunk of the medical community wouldn’t speak out super loudly. I know in my area, the hospitals are taking some level of a hit because everything elective, i.e. a lot of money makers, are all on hold)

5. You’re telling me you have some high-end comorbidities, and that it is important to not get it, but if you got it and things went south, it likely wouldn’t be because of the disease? (referring back to No. 1) Anyway, it seems like this is a process of believing this is overblown and looking for reasons that’s the case. The level of skepticism toward something saying it could be so serious is raised to levels that are almost unreachable. And that’s fine, but it might end with a high level of skepticism toward the little bits of evidence that support the idea it’s overblown.

This also underplays the effect on the economy if it is in fact bad. If we let it roll super unchecked, our hospitals would get pretty hammered, as they’re close to that already. And if you know you can get sick, and you see images of people on cots lining a hospital hallway, you’re not trying to congregate. So in the end, you’re only talking about the degree the economy gets hit, not if it takes a large hit.

If it turns out to be not much worse than the normal flu run, that’ll be great. It’ll mean the death count at the end is considerably below the average flu season (as insane precautions have been taken). And if that’s the case, then we won’t do this again going forward. (Ebola is not in the same class as those other diseases, as it is much harder to contract and worlds more virulent. It seems as if this particular virus spreads much more rapidly than those others)

1. I believe that COVID deaths are being greatly overstated. You don't, that's cool. Agree to disagree.

2. If NYC was so desperate for hospital beds, as the public officials kept saying, they would have cut through the red tape and transported these patients to the ship. The fact is, they did not do that. And then Gov Cuomo suggested yesterday in his daily press conference, that suddenly not many people are dying from heart attacks and other medical emergencies as they have before the outbreak. Coincidence? 

3. All I am saying here is that it would appear that people dying of things like strokes or heart attacks, are now being reclassified as COVID deaths. So are we really experiencing an extremely large number of deaths from this or is it people playing with the numbers?

4. I really don't know who the doctor was as I had just gotten out of the shower and could hear the news playing on the TV from the bathroom. I wish I could tell you more than that. However, it should at least raise the question about how hospitals are being reimbursed for COVID patients that I believe is being ignored. 

5. I have skepticism about anything that the news media spouts about 24/7. I listen to information, read what is available and then make my decisions. So far, everything is telling me that this thing is being blown out of proportion. The news media does it for sensationalism. The government officials like the power trip they are on. And I believe that Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx are looking at this from a purely medical perspective. It is not their job to worry about the affects on the economy. However, we need someone that DOES put it into perspective before we bankrupt most of the small businesses in this country. 

I for one, am not going to cower under the bed, waiting for the all clear. I believe that we can open the economy back up while employing a little common sense. If your sick or have a fever, stay home. Practice good hygiene and be responsible for yourself, just like we do during flu season.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 09, 2020, 12:20:13 PM
I would guess they are being overstated, but not greatly, as in doubling.  They also could be understated for obvious reasons in some situations.

We have about 400,000 cases "confirmed" thus far and about 13,000 deaths.

One person dies every 37 seconds in the United States from cardiovascular disease.1

That is 2300+ per day.  That rate might drop temporarily because people are in a less stressful situation right now.  But if even half those were mischaracterized as COVID, the impact would obviously be significant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 09, 2020, 12:28:14 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 09, 2020, 11:33:39 AM
Shudder

I had some of that before my first UW hockey game. It was not a proud evening.
Evidently it's great at killing viruses,specially the 190.Thought I might get some on the cheap - not happening.Have plenty of bleach though - that is killing me.Did you play Hockey at UW?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 09, 2020, 12:32:43 PM
In normal distillation you can only get to 190 proof, 95% ethyl alcohol.  The rest is water.  It's the best you can do without some special gear and other chemicals like benzene in a distillation.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 09, 2020, 12:36:07 PM
60% or greater is what you need to kill off the bugs.  So normal liquors around 80 proof won't do it, but Bacardi 151 should.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 09, 2020, 12:49:21 PM
Even 80 proof will kill nearly all "bugs", it may just take a bit longer.  Soap and water are more effective.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 09, 2020, 12:51:28 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 09, 2020, 12:28:14 PM
Evidently it's great at killing viruses,specially the 190.Thought I might get some on the cheap - not happening.Have plenty of bleach though - that is killing me.Did you play Hockey at UW?
No, just as a fan. I was in a non-student section and screaming high-end profanity. 

Later I threw up pizza on the sidewalk down the street from the capitol. Ahh to be 18.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 09, 2020, 12:56:46 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 09, 2020, 12:51:28 PM
No, just as a fan. I was in a non-student section and screaming high-end profanity.

Later I threw up pizza on the sidewalk down the street from the capitol. Ahh to be 18.
To be 18 again,when we were young and some one bought a keg for the weekend - we'd set it in a big galvinized tub.Then hit the local rinks after the Zamboni's made a run - best ice ever and free.Every now and then you'd fine some one munching on it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 09, 2020, 01:24:10 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 09, 2020, 12:49:21 PM
Even 80 proof will kill nearly all "bugs", it may just take a bit longer.  Soap and water are more effective.
Exactly. After the crazy runs on hand sanitizer, people realized that soap basically destroys the virus' protein coating and it's actually more effective than alcohol. 

But yeah, hand sanitizers were reported as needing to be >60% alcohol to be effective.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 09, 2020, 01:29:16 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 09, 2020, 01:24:10 PM
Exactly. After the crazy runs on hand sanitizer, people realized that soap basically destroys the virus' protein coating and it's actually more effective than alcohol.

But yeah, hand sanitizers were reported as needing to be >60% alcohol to be effective.

I still don't think people realize that, there are still crazy runs on hand sanitizer around the country.

To be fair, it's easier to wipe my hands with sanitizer whilst in the car after a trip to the store, than it is to wash my hands with soap and water.

But, our family already did that all the time anyway, so all vehicles are well stocked with sanitizer and wipes.  No panic buying from me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 09, 2020, 01:40:46 PM
I've always had sanitizer in the car too. Of course, I haven't driven my car in probably a month or so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 09, 2020, 02:21:50 PM
Yeah we're not going through it very quickly at all, these days...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 09, 2020, 08:40:17 PM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 09, 2020, 11:46:50 AM
1. I believe that COVID deaths are being greatly overstated. You don't, that's cool. Agree to disagree.

2. If NYC was so desperate for hospital beds, as the public officials kept saying, they would have cut through the red tape and transported these patients to the ship. The fact is, they did not do that. And then Gov Cuomo suggested yesterday in his daily press conference, that suddenly not many people are dying from heart attacks and other medical emergencies as they have before the outbreak. Coincidence?

3. All I am saying here is that it would appear that people dying of things like strokes or heart attacks, are now being reclassified as COVID deaths. So are we really experiencing an extremely large number of deaths from this or is it people playing with the numbers?

4. I really don't know who the doctor was as I had just gotten out of the shower and could hear the news playing on the TV from the bathroom. I wish I could tell you more than that. However, it should at least raise the question about how hospitals are being reimbursed for COVID patients that I believe is being ignored.

5. I have skepticism about anything that the news media spouts about 24/7. I listen to information, read what is available and then make my decisions. So far, everything is telling me that this thing is being blown out of proportion. The news media does it for sensationalism. The government officials like the power trip they are on. And I believe that Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx are looking at this from a purely medical perspective. It is not their job to worry about the affects on the economy. However, we need someone that DOES put it into perspective before we bankrupt most of the small businesses in this country.

I for one, am not going to cower under the bed, waiting for the all clear. I believe that we can open the economy back up while employing a little common sense. If your sick or have a fever, stay home. Practice good hygiene and be responsible for yourself, just like we do during flu season. 


I suppose we will have to agree to disagree. I'm not saying it's impossible, but I don't see much evidence unless one gets notably locked into the idea something hinkey must be afoot (I had an engineer roommate who got really into 9/11 theories because of the video of the way the towers fell).

But you mention the skepticism you have for what amounts to expertise, and it points to something interesting which is something most folks do (I'm sure I have), which is apply skepticism at a high degree to things that are more established (recognized epidemiologists, the CDC) but very little to things that allow us to see the world in a more sensational manner (our tweet from someone screaming into the political void with a factual error or the doctor on the TV when coming out of the shower). Because here's the thing, you have indicated you'd like it to be the case that we're all overreacting. That this is all so bad and the people who can make changes are wrong and you know the truth. But if that's the case, we need to be extra skeptical of those who beef up those feelings that make us feel most right. There are many, many people who will give us partial answer and wrap it in innuendo, often for their own profit or profile.

It's possible the government is highly over counting. But that doesn't seem much more possible than highly undercounting. And if it does because of these dribs and drabs, it's worth being as skeptical of those as anything else. That said, the you're willing to risk your life over this to ensure the economy only takes a large hit rather than a massive one is noble, standing for your beliefs.

(On the boat part, you're saying the political muscle of NYC should've just cut through military bureaucracy/red tape and possibly expose military personnel to coronavirus? And the lack of it happening must've meant that actually there weren't enough patients? I also looked through the previous two days of Cuomo, no mention of heart attacks, strokes or emergencies in that context)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 09, 2020, 11:44:42 PM
Welp, a months long hellish process ended today with me getting terminated from my job.  I could write a book about the last few months but I’ll spare everyone the details.  I have documented evidence that my manager did not turn in a document to HR that would have helped me in regards to my job performance.

I filed a grievance and also stated in writing I felt like I was operating in a hostile work environment.  I felt like if he would withhold a document, he would falsify them, alter them, and outright lie about my job performance.  Employee Relations “looked into it” and determined that I wasn’t operating in a hostile work environment. When I asked them what my manager’s reasoning was for not turning in the document I was told they weren’t at liberty to disclose that but it was apparently enough for them not to do anything about it.

Anyway, my manager scheduled a WebEx with me today under the pretense of discussing something business related but when I jumped on I saw my Regional Manager and a representative from HR was on the call and I knew what was coming.  My company is offering a severance of 3 months with full pay and benefits given I sign a document stating I won’t seek legal action against the company. 

They are making a big deal about the fact they are offering a severance.  That usually isn’t done for employees who are being terminated but they said due to the pandemic they thought it was the right thing to do.  I think the entire reason they offering it is hoping I go away and not seek legal action.


I’m calling tomorrow push for more time.  If they stay at 3 months I’m honestly not sure what I’ll do.  I truly believe I have a case but I just don’t know if I want to put all the time and money into a lawsuit.

Any advice is appreciated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 10, 2020, 12:00:52 AM
That's effing terrible


(I have no good advice other than a protracted legal battle usually sounds painful)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 10, 2020, 01:08:37 AM
I'm sure they're offering so you don't seek legal action. 

That said, not knowing any of the details of the situation, your industry, your other job prospects in the next three months, sadly I don't think I have enough information to tell you whether legal action or walking is the right option.

All I can say is that I wish you luck. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2020, 07:22:41 AM
I would find an employment lawyer who will talk to you for an hour or so without a charge.  Lay it out for him, and perhaps have him (or her) call the company and "explain" to them.  My own next steps would hinge on how easy it would be for me now to find another eq. job.  If it's easy, I'm going to take say 6 months sep, if not, I'd probably sue.  A lawyer might well take this on contingency.

If you were fired "for cause", they need to lay out specifically what that cause was, and that is grist for the mill, so to speak.  Obviously keep any communications, performance reviews over time, etc. in your possession.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 10, 2020, 08:02:18 AM
Damn Kris I wish you the BEST.But what the others ^^^^ stated.With everything going on and Corporate prolly having cash I don't know.Could be management(manager) throwing you under the bus to save his skin.If you have proof or an employee or two that would take the stand on your behalf then you have a punchers chance.Sometimes the justice system boils down to who has the best attorneys.Good Luck
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2020, 08:05:22 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 10, 2020, 01:08:37 AM
I'm sure they're offering so you don't seek legal action.

That said, not knowing any of the details of the situation, your industry, your other job prospects in the next three months, sadly I don't think I have enough information to tell you whether legal action or walking is the right option.

All I can say is that I wish you luck.
This is where I'm at Kris.


I wish you all the best. Please let us know how you make out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2020, 08:12:09 AM
Just FYI, and possibly not the same situation at all of course, there was a lawyer in Cincy who handled most of the employment issues for folks where I worked.  The "fix was in" because the company did not want ANY publicity about unhappy exemployees.  So, as soon as anyone found this lawyer, he'd call the company and they'd change the one year separation package to two years, sometimes three.  It didn't take any time at all because both sides knew the deal.

Now, this is a very large company with a highly prized public image to preserve, and the image is that everyone working there is the best and the brightest (literally) and they are all delighted to work there.  They also have very deep pockets of course.

In my case, I wanted to retire, so I signed the paper that said I couldn't sue them in return for one year's salary (half of which I spent on fast cars, good booze, and wild women, the rest I just wasted).

Had they fired me, I had amassed quite an arsenal of papers showing all sorts of malfeasance.  I have a copy of one memo the lawyers were trying to retrieve, an HR person wrote and it was a doozy.  Then the lawyers were ordered to track down every copy, good luck with that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 10, 2020, 08:18:20 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 10, 2020, 01:08:37 AM
I'm sure they're offering so you don't seek legal action.

That said, not knowing any of the details of the situation, your industry, your other job prospects in the next three months, sadly I don't think I have enough information to tell you whether legal action or walking is the right option.

All I can say is that I wish you luck.
I’m in pharmaceutical sales. Same company since 2008 when I got into the industry. Started with a different division within the company in late 2017.  This guy is my 5th manager with the company. The previous 4 had all been very happy with my performance and I had enjoyed a successful career prior to making the jump to this division.

The territory had  been struggling to meet quota prior to me coming over and continued to struggle once I was in my role, but I have a territory partner who has been there for 9 years now.  So successes and failures as far as sales results are shared. I don’t get all the credit or all the blame for sales numbers.  I’m not judged solely on sales results. There is a subjective component to it as well.

After getting off to a terrific start in the first quarter of 2019 our numbers fell off a cliff. It was as dramatic a change in direction as I’ve ever seen.  My manager zeroed in on me as the reason and began a systematic process to remove me from the company.  Every field travel report starting in July painted me as someone who had no impact with my customers and failing to meet the expectations of my role.

In order to be fair and make sure he wasn’t seeing something no one else was he sent someone from training to ride with me in September of last year.  But prior to the guy riding with me my manager briefed him on what he thought my weaknesses were. After two days with me the guy seemed generally happy with my messaging in front of customers. He had basic coaching points for areas of improvement  but nothing out of the ordinary. However, he never provided any documentation of our time together. When I asked my manager why that was he stated that given his role he wasn’t allowed to write a Field Travel Report. When I asked him what the guy communicated to him he  said, “He recognized the same gaps in performance that I did.”

He then sent my RM (his boss) to ride with me in October. For a number of logistical reasons that are too long to get into the day got off to a bad start and never recovered because I told him I would pick him up at 10:30. He got in the car in a bad mood and it showed. If I had that day to do over again I would have picked him up at 7:00 and driven a couple of hours to an office and then driven back to where our lunch appointment was that day. But anyway, he was unhappy with the day and it was reflected in his FTR.


However, he came back to ride with me in November and we had a very good day together and his FTR reflected that. As I was taking him to the airport he commented, “I saw things out of you that make me think you can do this job.” Despite that I was put on a Performance Improvement Plan on December 10 of last year.

I knew it was a formality though. My manager stated he had to see subjective improvement and I knew we were too far gone for that to take place. Through a chain of events I found out in February that my manager had turned in the unfavorable FTR from my RM in October to HR but not the more favorable one from November. In fact, he still has a copy of the one from October but claims he didn’t keep a copy of the one from November. My RM said he didn’t have a copy either. But I still had my copy and I had assumed it had been turned over to HR to go in my file.

When I found that out I immediately filed a written grievance and hostile work environment claim.  Employee Relations immediately downplayed my concerns saying that while the FTR hadn’t been turned in they were verbally made aware of the day in November and while some improvement had been shown it wasn’t enough. When I asked what my manager’s reasoning was for turning in one document and not the other I was told they weren’t at liberty to discuss that but it had been addressed with him.

So then yesterday happened and unless they extend the severance package I have a decision to make. I have a buddy who is an attorney and he absolutely thinks I have a case but also warned me of what can be a long, frustrating process in pursuing that.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2020, 08:29:04 AM
I agree with what the lawyer says.  Unless they have a local reputation to protect, they will turn this over to their lawyers and it will drag out for a long long time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 10, 2020, 08:39:39 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 10, 2020, 08:12:09 AM
Now, this is a very large company with a highly prized public image to preserve, and the image is that everyone working there is the best and the brightest (literally) and they are all delighted to work there.  They also have very deep pockets of course.

So P & G
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2020, 08:47:27 AM
IF the models for COVID back in March were what we have today, would "we" have taken such drastic measures?

If we had not, would the models be worse than they are?

Hmmmmmmmmm.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2020, 08:51:51 AM
Statistics is not math.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2020, 09:00:28 AM
The models aren't based on statistics initially, other than some tried to extract from the cruise ships some information on R naught.

I think you have to formulate some kind of a rough model based on incomplete data and then refine it as more data arrives.

We reacted strongly to the early models, and the results have been less dire, by a lot, but had we not reacted as we did, perhaps the results would have been dire.

It's circular.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on April 10, 2020, 09:03:58 AM
The reason why the models look like they do today is because of the action taken a month ago. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 10, 2020, 09:06:57 AM
The models have done their best to  iterate and incorporate new findings.  So they DID include goals and targets and cutoffs for "if we achieve 50% reduction in contact then we will incur X amount of risk" or "at 75% reduction in contact we have Y amount of risk" and so on.

But like CD says, there was so little information when formulating those risk scenarios, they weren't much more than a shot in the dark.

And we're still climbing the infection/case/ICU/death curve in many locations, so we still don't really know.  What if deaths don't taper off as they're currently modeling, in many regions?  What if they plateau and just stay there-- which might indicate that our current level of contact reduction has arrived at a steady-state for transmission and symptom development?

We don't have ANY of those answers yet.  The data are being fed back into the models, the information gets better, the approximations should improve, and hopefully that gives us a more positive outlook.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 10, 2020, 09:09:39 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on April 10, 2020, 09:03:58 AM
The reason why the models look like they do today is because of the action taken a month ago.
True in part.  But the models from a month ago DID include scenarios for social distancing/reduction in contact, and they were still predicting much worse outcomes than the current models are.

That's largely due to increased and improved information.  We're able to adjust the constants and the relationships of the variables in the model as we gain a better understanding of the virus itself, as well as improved understanding of the effects of social distancing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 10, 2020, 09:13:07 AM
Kinda makes you wonder about all those climate change models predicting gloom and doom
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 10, 2020, 09:15:51 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on April 10, 2020, 09:03:58 AM
The reason why the models look like they do today is because of the action taken a month ago.
so model makers will never be wrong

all they have to say is well we took action so that why the model is way off
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on April 10, 2020, 09:16:19 AM
Utee, exactly. All of us sports fans know that early season models and projection suffer from GIGO and lack of data. More data comes in, inputs get tweaked, iterative process, and things look a lot more accurate halfway through the season then they did at the start. 

Maybe this is because engineers tend to analyze the hell out of a data set without always understanding the context. Either way, more properly filtered info is rarely a bad thing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 10, 2020, 09:18:07 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on April 10, 2020, 09:16:19 AM
Utee, exactly. All of us sports fans know that early season models and projection suffer from GIGO and lack of data. More data comes in, inputs get tweaked, iterative process, and things look a lot more accurate halfway through the season then they did at the start.

Maybe this is because engineers tend to analyze the hell out of a data set without always understanding the context. Either way, more properly filtered info is rarely a bad thing.
Come on my old friend, you and I both know that engineers NEVER get anything wrong.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 10, 2020, 09:30:12 AM
we shut down the worlds most successful economy based on these models

what bothers me more then that is all the lefty folks saying we need to be shut down for at least a year

(after the election)

what a crock
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 10, 2020, 09:52:20 AM
Staying shut down a year is so laughably impossible it's not even worth discussing.

Staying shut down beyond the end of April is going to be a Herculean task for this nation.  



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 10, 2020, 09:56:29 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 10, 2020, 09:52:20 AM
Staying shut down a year is so laughably impossible it's not even worth discussing.

Staying shut down beyond the end of April is going to be a Herculean task for this nation. 




Hope youre right

We need some models on opening the economy back up

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 10, 2020, 09:57:43 AM
Well, Sweden is trying the different approach. No lockdown, but "encouraging" social distancing (https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/10/europe/sweden-lockdown-turmp-intl/index.html). 

Sweden may be the country to tell us whether we did it right or wrong. Which is sad, because if we did it wrong, we hampered our economy for no reason... If Sweden did it wrong, there will be a hell of a lot more dead Swedes than there should have been. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 10, 2020, 10:02:58 AM
Yup, Sweden's going to be an interesting study.  I hope, for their sake, they're not on a completely wrong path.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 10, 2020, 10:11:42 AM

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVMJmC_XkAE90SK?format=jpg&name=900x900)

https://twitter.com/JimPethokoukis/status/1248352075014180870 (https://twitter.com/JimPethokoukis/status/1248352075014180870)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 10, 2020, 10:13:46 AM
Clearly that's bad, but at least it's a V and not a U. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 10, 2020, 10:21:03 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 10, 2020, 09:30:12 AM
we shut down the worlds most successful economy based on these models

what bothers me more then that is all the lefty folks saying we need to be shut down for at least a year

(after the election)

what a crock
Yeah, your bubble invents these "lefty folks" - there is no general consensus to shut down for a year.  Stop with the strawmam argument, please.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 10, 2020, 10:21:40 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 10, 2020, 09:13:07 AM
Kinda makes you wonder about all those climate change models predicting gloom and doom
No, not at all.  They're not the same group of scientists, at all.   You realize you don't HAVE to be that anti-intelligence stereotype, right?  You're allowed to accept what EXPERTS say.  You don't have to distrust science.  You know, SCIENCE, that process without which your phone wouldn't work, planes wouldn't fly, and the medications you take wouldn't exist.
But I guess they're all crazy liberals out to get us!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 10, 2020, 10:29:21 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 10, 2020, 10:21:03 AM
Yeah, your bubble invents these "lefty folks" - there is no general consensus to shut down for a year.  Stop with the strawmam argument, please. 
Oh please spare me

I could point out at least 10 articles from left bent folks supporting the economy needing to be shut down at least a year

no straw man here just reality

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 10, 2020, 10:30:52 AM
10 out of how many?  
If you're only going to argue against the most radical minority of the 'other side', you'll find yourself out of the actual conversation every time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 10, 2020, 10:31:27 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 10, 2020, 10:13:46 AM
Clearly that's bad, but at least it's a V and not a U.
That's the hope anyway.

That Q2 revision from -25% (which would already be historically bad) to -40% (which is unfreakingbelievably bad) is eye-opening.  And I don't see much reason to doubt it, what I'm seeing pretty much confirms it.

If Q4CY20 ends up being only 7% down YoY that would be almost a miracle, but my fingers are certainly crossed.

I think full recovery is 18 months out, IF we start uncorking the SIP restrictions by the end of April. For each month beyond that we stay in SIP mode, I think we push out recovery by an additional 2-3 months.

And if SIP remains through the summer, I think we're in third-world starvation and violent uprising situation.  But I also highly doubt it would come to that.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 10, 2020, 10:32:50 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 10, 2020, 10:21:40 AM
No, not at all.  They're not the same group of scientists, at all.  You realize you don't HAVE to be that anti-intelligence stereotype, right?  You're allowed to accept what EXPERTS say.  You don't have to distrust science.  You know, SCIENCE, that process without which your phone wouldn't work, planes wouldn't fly, and the medications you take wouldn't exist.
But I guess they're all crazy liberals out to get us!
Well, science maybe figured out electromagnetic waves, and the Bernoulli principle, but it's engineers who make sure your phone works and that airplanes don't fall out of the sky.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2020, 10:34:21 AM
No politics.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 10, 2020, 10:35:25 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 10, 2020, 10:21:40 AM
No, not at all.  They're not the same group of scientists, at all.  You realize you don't HAVE to be that anti-intelligence stereotype, right?  You're allowed to accept what EXPERTS say.  You don't have to distrust science.  You know, SCIENCE, that process without which your phone wouldn't work, planes wouldn't fly, and the medications you take wouldn't exist.
But I guess they're all crazy liberals out to get us!
so why isnt New York under water as was predicted over the last decade

Dont get me wrong I believe in climate change

Climate change is real

It just isnt caused by man

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2020, 10:38:05 AM
I don't believe any scientists predicted NYC would be "under water" by now.  A LOT of what we read and hear is uttered not by scientists but by others who misinterpret what they really said, which usually includes words like "COULD" in the predictions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 10, 2020, 10:38:58 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 10, 2020, 10:35:25 AM
so why isnt New York under water as was predicted over the last decade

Dont get me wrong I believe in climate change

Climate change is real

It just isnt caused by man


Again, only a radical would have predicted NY being under water in the time frame of 10 years.  It's nonsense.  
If you're claiming humanity hasn't exacerbated climate change, you'll have to support that with evidence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 10, 2020, 10:39:57 AM
Someone here doesn't understand he's the victim of click-bait disguised as "crap the other side believes and is pushing as their agenda that you must fear and fight against!"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 10, 2020, 10:40:03 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 10, 2020, 10:32:50 AM
Well, science maybe figured out electromagnetic waves, and the Bernoulli, but it's engineers who make sure your phone works and that airplanes don't fall out of the sky.
Amen brutha.

Stoopid scientists always trying to take all the credit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 10, 2020, 10:40:40 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 10, 2020, 10:30:52 AM
10 out of how many? 
If you're only going to argue against the most radical minority of the 'other side', you'll find yourself out of the actual conversation every time.
glad you feel that way 

Ill remind you of your view when we attempt to open up the economy and catch hell from these minority groups
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 10, 2020, 10:42:25 AM
Hey guys, please take the climate change discussion to the climate thread.

Also, lh320-- you started with the political mudslinging.  Nobody around here wants to see that.  If you really want to discuss politics, there's an open forum down there at the bottom of the page, where I'm sure the natives would welcome you with open arms.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 10, 2020, 10:42:43 AM
You'd probably be best served to ignore the outliers.  I know they make the best opponents to boost your own position, but they're invalid.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 10, 2020, 10:42:52 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 10, 2020, 10:39:57 AM
Someone here doesn't understand he's the victim of click-bait disguised as "crap the other side believes and is pushing as their agenda that you must fear and fight against!"
yep we call it fake news
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 10, 2020, 10:45:08 AM
Take it somewhere else, jackwagons.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 10, 2020, 10:47:06 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 10, 2020, 10:45:08 AM
Take it somewhere else, jackwagons.
utee thats the nicest thing youve ever called me

makes my day
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 10, 2020, 10:49:58 AM
I aim to please.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 10, 2020, 10:51:56 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 10, 2020, 10:42:52 AM
yep we call it fake news
You're the only ones clicking it!  It's specifically designed to outrage you and draw you in.  Maybe ignore it?  Maybe don't be the predictable victim of a Russian bot?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 10, 2020, 11:00:22 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 10, 2020, 10:49:58 AM
I aim to please.
yep and the next time I catch you off topic Ill return the favor 

course we know that will never happen
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 10, 2020, 11:04:19 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 10, 2020, 10:51:56 AM
You're the only ones clicking it!  It's specifically designed to outrage you and draw you in.  Maybe ignore it?  Maybe don't be the predictable victim of a Russian bot?
now see I could respond to that but Im keeping my powder dry in the spirit of comrade utee
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 10, 2020, 11:20:10 AM
Just go down to the politics forum if you want to have this discussion.  That's what it is there for.

Random political shots, and political baiting, are unwanted here.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 10, 2020, 11:24:18 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 10, 2020, 11:20:10 AM
Just go down to the politics forum if you want to have this discussion.  That's what it is there for.

Random political shots, and political baiting, are unwanted here. 
I take issue with that

My posts are not random

They are well thought out and posted with love
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 10, 2020, 11:50:16 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 10, 2020, 09:15:51 AM
so model makers will never be wrong

all they have to say is well we took action so that why the model is way off
If they're wrong, then we'll see a decided drop in deaths year-over-year, in part because we'd be doing much better in stopping flu deaths and the lack of travel likely takes down traffic deaths a good bit. 

So the proof positive they're wrong is likely a notably lower death rate than normal. Granted, we won't have that data for a while.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2020, 11:56:53 AM
We'll have as much data as we're going to get by June 1 or so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2020, 11:59:36 AM
Is Sweden as globally mobile as we are in this country? 

I read that 400,000 people flew here from China in January. I read that most of NYC's cases were brought in from Europe (after China sent it there).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 10, 2020, 12:03:48 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 10, 2020, 11:50:16 AM
the lack of travel likely takes down traffic deaths a good bit.

I was wondering how that was balancing out.It has to at least a little.There was just under 39,000 traffic fatalities nationwide last year
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2020, 12:11:17 PM
All the big insurance companies are sending out rebates.

I've put about 15 miles on my car since March 15.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on April 10, 2020, 12:20:52 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 10, 2020, 12:03:48 PM
I was wondering how that was balancing out.It has to at least a little.There was just under 39,000 traffic fatalities nationwide last year
Not sure if we're an outlier, but fatalities are actually up in Minnesota relative to past years. Maybe less VMT = less practice? I do know people have verb l been driving really stupidly since the SIP order went out. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 10, 2020, 12:28:29 PM
What the hell is the SIP?Never mind,got it.So the order to stay in has caused an inability to operate a vehichle?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2020, 12:29:42 PM
Shelter in place, stay at home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 10, 2020, 12:35:16 PM
I wouldnt be at all surprised to see the US death rate from all causes to fall by 10%
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 10, 2020, 12:39:20 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 10, 2020, 10:49:58 AM
I aim to please.
not always
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 10, 2020, 12:46:38 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2020, 11:59:36 AM
Is Sweden as globally mobile as we are in this country?

I read that 400,000 people flew here from China in January. I read that most of NYC's cases were brought in from Europe (after China sent it there).
I'm not sure if it's AS globally mobile, but they've got a lot of imprint on the world.

Ericsson, Ikea, and Volvo are obviously largely multinational. A google search says closing retailer H&M as well. 

I've also noticed a very large overlap/interaction with the UK. I think there are a lot of Brit expats in Sweden (it seemed that way when I was there anyway). 

I was reading about Sweden in general, and although they have very low population density as a nation, 85% of their population is in cities of 100K or more, so it's not a "rural" population despite the low population density. I suspect it's quite like Canada in that regard--lot of land, low population, but 90% of the Canadian population lives within 100 miles of the US border. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 10, 2020, 12:59:38 PM
Conspiracy and false claims surrounding Dr. Charles Lieber, China and COVID-19 coronavirus (https://www.wcvb.com/article/conspiracy-and-false-claims-surrounding-dr-charles-lieber-china-and-covid-19-coronavirus/32094143#)

just to clear this up
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 10, 2020, 01:26:57 PM
KEY POINTS
Apple and Google announced a partnership on Friday in which the two companies will work together to provide tools that will help track the spread of coronavirus.
Apple said both companies will launch developer tools (called APIs) in May that will “enable interoperability between Android and iOS devices using apps from public health authorities.”
“Second, in the coming months, Apple and Google will work to enable a broader Bluetooth-based contact tracing platform by building this functionality into the underlying platforms,” Apple said in a press release.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 10, 2020, 01:44:42 PM
A conspiracy theorist might propose that this is just a way for Apple and Google to track US citizens even more closely...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 10, 2020, 02:19:38 PM
Ohio Distilleries have went into overdrive to make hand sanitizer and will donate the product to Food Banks 👍
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 10, 2020, 02:21:43 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 10, 2020, 01:44:42 PM
A conspiracy theorist might propose that this is just a way for Apple and Google to track US citizens even more closely...

Unfortunately even if their intentions are honorable they've sort of foisted that suspicion onto themselves
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2020, 02:22:49 PM
Yeah.. don't they already do this anyway? This new thing would just make it legal??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 10, 2020, 02:25:13 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2020, 02:22:49 PM
Yeah.. don't they already do this anyway? This new thing would just make it legal??
Yup, that's exactly where I was going. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 10, 2020, 02:29:11 PM
Pandemics are also opportunities
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2020, 02:41:30 PM
Never let a good crisis go to waste?

Heh.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 10, 2020, 02:55:45 PM
That's just what Stalin said!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 10, 2020, 03:03:14 PM



Comrade what for you bring up old grievances?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2020, 06:12:30 PM
"We" packed over 10,000 meals for Cafe Intermezzo to donate to food service folks out of work.  Made the local news.  I am bushed.

I have rarely seen so many people working so hard, it was inspiring, really.  Several of the folks are immigrants from France, Turkey, Afghanistan, Costa Rica, just working working working to get these packages to folks who need them, it was impressive.  

I am beat.

If you ever visit the ATL, try to dine there, there is one in the airport.  They are good people.

I am very proud of our country right now, despite the few idiots out there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 10, 2020, 07:20:43 PM
:::glances at MrNubbz:::
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on April 11, 2020, 01:18:38 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 10, 2020, 02:19:38 PM
Ohio Distilleries have went into overdrive to make hand sanitizer and will donate the product to Food Banks 👍
At our local grocery there were scads of small plastic bottles of "hand sanitizer" on the shelf last week so I bought one. The bottle was marked as made by "Foundry Distillery" of West Des Moines. So I checked out their website and they make spirits.

The bottle says it has a certain % of alcohol (bottle is at my office now, I am not), + glycerin. The contents are pure liquid, i.e. no noticeable glycerin. I stuck my finger in for a taste. It tastes like vodka. I am a bit afraid to drink it because it says it has glycerin, but the glycerin is undetectable to touch or taste.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on April 11, 2020, 01:20:51 AM
Any thoughts on the idea floated by MLB that there be two leagues for 2020, one Grapefruit League for teams doing spring training in Florida, and one Cactus League? The teams will play each other in empty stadia in those two states until things can open up, or stay if things don't open up, with the World Series in November.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 11, 2020, 01:24:47 AM
A lot of rainouts if you're playing games scattered around FL all summer.  
Anyone volunteering to play outside when it's 118 degrees in AZ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on April 11, 2020, 01:30:01 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 11, 2020, 01:24:47 AM
A lot of rainouts if you're playing games scattered around FL all summer. 
Anyone volunteering to play outside when it's 118 degrees in AZ?
I am in Iowa. We usually consider the weather. But not so much in baseball season. Good points. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2020, 07:07:01 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on April 11, 2020, 01:18:38 AM
The bottle says it has a certain % of alcohol (bottle is at my office now, I am not), + glycerin. The contents are pure liquid, i.e. no noticeable glycerin. I stuck my finger in for a taste. It tastes like vodka. I am a bit afraid to drink it because it says it has glycerin, but the glycerin is undetectable to touch or taste.

I don't know how you could "notice" the addition of some glycerin to alcohol.  A large percentage would make the solution notably viscous, but it would be mostly glycerin at that point.  Otherwise, it might leave a slight oily feeling on your skin after the alcohol evaporated.

Glycerin is pretty nontoxic to humans.  It is widely used in hand lotions as the primary adjuvant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2020, 03:13:28 PM
Checking back in on that IHME model:

Illinois peaked on 4/3. Wisconsin will peak tomorrow.

Florida has a ways to go - April 26.

The route from Illinois to Florida:

Kentucky: 4/24
Tennessee: 4/19
Georgia: 4/26
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on April 11, 2020, 03:54:31 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2020, 03:13:28 PM
Checking back in on that IHME model:

Illinois peaked on 4/3. Wisconsin will peak tomorrow.

Florida has a ways to go - April 26.

The route from Illinois to Florida:

Kentucky: 4/24
Tennessee: 4/19
Georgia: 4/26
Iowa, April 30
Arizona, April 26

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/iowa (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/iowa)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2020, 04:37:23 PM
I imagine Iowa is so far behind because there is no stay-at-home order, and the schools didn't close until a week ago.

AZ was late to the party on stay-at-home. March 30, although schools closed 2 weeks before that.

Illinois' peak death rate is projected in 3 days. Kinda fits in with the election held on March 17, but I can't say for sure that is the cause. I'm just speculating. If the thing takes up to 14 days to show up, that would be March 31. I can't find data on how long it has taken for an identified case to result in a death. 2 weeks?? That about fits.

Man, it really sucks to have to think about this thing all the time.

Also, what was in the news before this broke? Seems like this virus coverage is all that's talked about right now. I guess the big story before this was impeachment?? I can't even remember. It feels like a long, long time ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2020, 04:37:45 PM
We gave out 3,000 food boxes today, cars were lined up around the block waiting.  It was amazing.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2020, 04:38:30 PM
That is fantastic CDawg. I'm proud of you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 11, 2020, 06:27:29 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 11, 2020, 04:37:45 PM
We gave out 3,000 food boxes today, cars were lined up around the block waiting.  It was amazing.


Outstanding.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 11, 2020, 08:38:48 PM
Nursing homes getting hit hard, nationally.  Fed gov't isn't tracking those deaths, as per MSNBC (so take with a grain of salt).
.
I guess it's better to be in Phoenix during this than the Navajo Rez....their cases are booming up there, and it's SO sparsely populated.  I'm about to go pick up a pizza, and the place probably serves 2-3 city blocks, at the most.  If I went to the grocery store where I had lived on the Rez, it would have served everyone in a 1600 square mile section.  I think that matters.
3,400 cases in Phx is FARRRRR fewer than 340 cases on the Navajo Nation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 11, 2020, 09:14:54 PM
Fortunately, my grandmother's assisted living facility hasn't been affected as far as my parents know. However, she has dementia and depression, which is not a good combination in the first place and especially being quarantined to her apartment, but there aren't any good alternatives, of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2020, 11:04:03 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 11, 2020, 08:38:48 PM
Nursing homes getting hit hard, nationally.  Fed gov't isn't tracking those deaths, as per MSNBC (so take with a grain of salt).
.
This sounds odd to me.  Why would they not be reported?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 12, 2020, 11:10:55 AM
as per MSNBC
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 12, 2020, 11:26:48 AM
From what i've read/heard old folks homes have long been a money maker for the owners.While a nursing staff is kept practically on retainer,many of the aides and assistants are low paid for bleak and difficult assignments.Very high turnover rates
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2020, 11:29:15 AM
I would imagine many "old folks homes" are for profit operations, so they generally should "make money for owners".

Some may pay more to attract and retain better workers, which as a model, might be preferable to the alternative.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 12, 2020, 12:01:19 PM
watching the 2020 Rose Bowl

go Badgers!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 12, 2020, 12:16:02 PM
The deaths from the old folks' home in Seattle are certainly being counted.  It's hit a couple so far in Texas and they're being counted.  I don't believe there's any intentional reason they might not be counted, though I'm certain there's a lot of confusion and chaos at ANY place that's been hit hard and so reporting from those places could be erratic and incorrect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 12, 2020, 01:15:06 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 12, 2020, 12:01:19 PM
watching the 2020 Rose Bowl

go Badgers!
You are making me cry.


Damn punter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 12, 2020, 01:23:18 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 12, 2020, 11:04:03 AM
This sounds odd to me.  Why would they not be reported?
It's my understanding they're  not being admitted into hospitals, but being kept where they are.  Maybe that has something to do with it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 12, 2020, 01:24:21 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 12, 2020, 12:16:02 PM
The deaths from the old folks' home in Seattle are certainly being counted.  It's hit a couple so far in Texas and they're being counted.  I don't believe there's any intentional reason they might not be counted, though I'm certain there's a lot of confusion and chaos at ANY place that's been hit hard and so reporting from those places could be erratic and incorrect.

The cases are being reported in local news and such, but not counted by the gov't in its official numbers, perhaps for the reason above.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2020, 01:28:54 PM
When a person dies, there will be a report on "Cause of Death", a death certificate.  If it lists COVID-19, it would be reported.

(https://i.imgur.com/eXeKcs6.png)

I'm sure some folks die and COVID is not reported, just as some may die "normally" and be positive for COVID but would have died anyway.  Of the people who die in a day, I'd imagine a small percentage were tested for COVID.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 12, 2020, 01:37:01 PM
By "not being counted" is it possible that what was meant is that they're not being counted as a unique line item? 

As in, tracking nursing home deaths as a distinct subset within overall COVID deaths would be valuable information, but they're just being lumped in with the rest? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2020, 01:38:29 PM
I see stats on age at time of COVID death, which is possibly as critical to understand.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 12, 2020, 01:58:48 PM
I'm not sure.  
This could simply be a counter-measure of what had been posted here - of people who may have died of other causes being labeled Covid-19....nursing home deaths are of people who aren't expected to live a long time, and so if they happened to die of Covid-19, why count it, as they were already going to die next Tuesday anyway.
.
I have no idea, it's all a mess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2020, 02:14:32 PM
My GUESS is if an elderly not healthy person gets the flu, the cause of death if they die is probably pneumonia, and that could be the case for COVID as well.  I doubt doctors order tests on patients who are not doing well, the test result doesn't change the course of treatment.  So, no doubt some people die and are COVID positive and we don't know it, and some die of whatever and happened to be COVID positive and get counted because they were tested.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 12, 2020, 02:25:26 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 12, 2020, 11:04:03 AM
This sounds odd to me.  Why would they not be reported?
Reading the story, it looks like the Federal government isn't keeping an "official tally" and multiple states are not providing data on nursing home deaths (26 not providing info on the deaths, 14 not providing info on cases in nursing homes). 

(I know I read some states stopped testing the dead, as with a backup, it just wasn't prudent, but I think that was more with in-home deaths)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 12, 2020, 03:07:21 PM
stupid Badgers

now watching Iowa at Nebraska 2017

I understand Husker fans will watch anything RED, but a 56-14 blowout???
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 12, 2020, 03:24:21 PM
MN Senator Dr Scott Jensen on being told by MN Dept of Health to classify non-CV deaths as CV deaths - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xlluxI-vGQ&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR3EMKxVFyoCIkzvjtcQcGkW15jJOso8diq7LDfBJ_tQ9o9fTwPw-b9v9eI)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 12, 2020, 08:24:23 PM
Bullshit disband that health dept they are dangerous jack asses inflating any numbers for what ever reason is the shit of Robber barons.Not someone interested in the wellfare of the Public
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 12, 2020, 09:27:50 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 12, 2020, 03:24:21 PM
MN Senator Dr Scott Jensen on being told by MN Dept of Health to classify non-CV deaths as CV deaths - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xlluxI-vGQ&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR3EMKxVFyoCIkzvjtcQcGkW15jJOso8diq7LDfBJ_tQ9o9fTwPw-b9v9eI)
Seems like a lot of storm and fury, but the value is in digging in. While we must be skeptical of all things, we must also be skeptical of the sensational, and a politician announcing something untoward is certianly that.

In terms of good moves, the state rep in question posted the document in question. It's a useful document because it illustrates that COD is often listed as a multi-tiered thing. So it says this is the direct thing that kills someone, then lists pneumonia or COVID further down the line. 

In the case he's talking about, it's how one lists home deaths. It says if a person dies at home of a respiratory issue, and was exposed to someone who later tested positive for COVID, the COD should be listed "Acute respiratory illness" due to "Possible COVID."

Now, we can argue if it's right to list a possible COD on a death certificate. In truth, it shouldn't really matter unless that specific things being used as a political bludgeoning tool of sorts. But of course, this is coming from a politician seemingly with a taste for bludgeoning, and the pub he'll get for this is probably the most fame he'll ever acquire. I don't know how this factors into the larger numbers.

Simply put, that headline is a lie. And if the end game was to get more funding or something, it's missing the mark because the hospital treats no one in that case. 

Anyway, here's the most thesis of the instruction. We can argue if it's reasonable or not "In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as “probable” or “presumed.” In these instances, certifiers should use their best clinical judgement in determining if a COVID–19 infection was likely. However, please note that testing for COVID–19 should be conducted whenever possible."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 12, 2020, 10:09:19 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 12, 2020, 09:27:50 PM
Anyway, here's the most thesis of the instruction. We can argue if it's reasonable or not "In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as “probable” or “presumed.” In these instances, certifiers should use their best clinical judgement in determining if a COVID–19 infection was likely. However, please note that testing for COVID–19 should be conducted whenever possible."
This seems prudent.
The doctor says they don't put pnemonia due to possible influenza, but are doing it with COVID-19.  
I think they should be putting what likely caused the pnemonia.  Maybe it's a bad idea, but it would make sense to me.  
.
What if everyone was just honest and prudent?  There's no need to fabricate anything, no matter what side of the aisle.  It's wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2020, 07:13:07 AM
Ever notice how often some summary of a "thing" sounds ridiculous and absurd, and then you look into and discover it was taken out of context and what is being suggested is arguably reasonable and rational?

Huh.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2020, 07:57:08 AM
Has COVID peaked in the US?  I read somewhere that R naught was reduced from around 5 to 1.5 by "distancing".  I wouldn't trust either figure, but one is likely lower than the other.  Distancing and hand washing may be doing most of the trick here.  Can we reopen things soon and recommend to seniors they stay in for a while longer to the extent possible and let folks under 50 make their own judgments?

Restaurants could reopen with tables further apart.  Workers could have their T taken every day when they arrive.  Hospital workers could be tested often along with folks in elderly homes (workers).  Businesses might have staggered hours for being at work so folks are not bunched together while working from home.

Wash your hands, use good judgment on distancing, wear a mask if you start to feel at  all ill, get outside, avoid crowded areas, gyms might need to stay closed along with large public events.  Church maybe if everyone sits far apart.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 13, 2020, 10:44:33 AM
I'm guessing distancing, such as staying in your house is most effective

washing your hands is nice, but if you don't do it often enough or don't wash your cell phone or others things you hold in your hands it is flawed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2020, 10:54:28 AM
My approach is to carry the sanitizing lotion with me when out.  Anytime I touch something I use it on the hands.  This is toughest in a grocery store obviously.

When we walk in the park we rarely have a need to touch anything.  I can open doors with an elbow.

I have come to dislike cell phones.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 13, 2020, 10:57:10 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 13, 2020, 10:44:33 AM
I'm guessing distancing, such as staying in your house is most effective

washing your hands is nice, but if you don't do it often enough or don't wash your cell phone or others things you hold in your hands it is flawed.
Yup I keep 2 handiwipes spritzed with either bleach or Alcohol(not both obviously) in a plastic container.For steering wheel,shifter,other knobs/levers entry door of the house,wiping down groceries etc.Gets irksome but a good habit to get into
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2020, 11:00:04 AM
Sunlight is pretty lethal to viruses.  I always get a cart outside the grocery store, in part to ensure the wheels work.

I think we are very likely to see some UV lights sold for $20, but wait .... very soon on TV.  The cheap ones won't have enough lumens to do anything.

The intense ones would be dangerous to eyes.

There are some professional grade ones for ambulances that probably work OK, but you can't be inside when they are used.  It takes about 20 minutes apparently.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 13, 2020, 11:01:50 AM
I have a package of wipes and bottle of sanitizer in each car.  I use them on my hands and anything I touch, once I get into the car, including steering wheel, gear lever, keys, etc. I don't really use my phone when out and about, I've switched to a paper grocery list for the time being, which gets tossed in the trash when I'm done.

And of course wash hands thoroughly when returning home.  We also wipe down with bleach wipes, every door handle, light switch, and sink handle we tend to touch, when coming into the house from outside.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 13, 2020, 11:06:36 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 13, 2020, 07:57:08 AM
Has COVID peaked in the US?  I read somewhere that R naught was reduced from around 5 to 1.5 by "distancing".  I wouldn't trust either figure, but one is likely lower than the other.  Distancing and hand washing may be doing most of the trick here.  Can we reopen things soon and recommend to seniors they stay in for a while longer to the extent possible and let folks under 50 make their own judgments?

Restaurants could reopen with tables further apart.  Workers could have their T taken every day when they arrive.  Hospital workers could be tested often along with folks in elderly homes (workers).  Businesses might have staggered hours for being at work so folks are not bunched together while working from home.

Wash your hands, use good judgment on distancing, wear a mask if you start to feel at  all ill, get outside, avoid crowded areas, gyms might need to stay closed along with large public events.  Church maybe if everyone sits far apart.
I'd expect the overall national numbers to look bad today and tomorrow, as cities/counties/states tend to catch up on weekend reporting on Mondays and Tuesdays, plus this past weekend was Easter and so probably even fewer folks around for reporting. But by Wed/Thurs I'm really hoping/expecting to see some downward trends.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2020, 11:26:13 AM
I would note that hydrogen peroxide (3%) is pretty effective against pathogens, many of which are anaerobes.  It doesn't stink and it won't bleach a shirt or whatever (at least not right away).  It likely is less effective than soap against a virus.  You can even use it as mouthwash, though it tastes metallic.

Soap is preferred against viruses.  We might all find ourselves getting sick less often after this ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 13, 2020, 11:53:42 AM
Hospitals in Texas are cutting hours and laying off nurses and other staff.  No elective surgeries means no revenue, and there hasn't been a surge of COVID patients either. But we're still a week or two before our predicted peak.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 13, 2020, 12:08:49 PM
I read that the Texas highway patrol is turning cars with Louisiana license plates around at the Tx/La border

Not sure its true but if it is what strange times we live in
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 13, 2020, 12:22:00 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 13, 2020, 11:53:42 AM
Hospitals in Texas are cutting hours and laying off nurses and other staff.  No elective surgeries means no revenue, and there hasn't been a surge of COVID patients either. But we're still a week or two before our predicted peak.




As of today only 7 other states had a lower death rate per 1 M/pop then Texas

at 278 deaths I consider us lucky so far
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 13, 2020, 12:27:49 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 13, 2020, 12:08:49 PM
I read that the Texas highway patrol is turning cars with Louisiana license plates around at the Tx/La border

Not sure its true but if it is what strange times we live in
should have started this decades ago.

Austin might not be so large and might still be weird.

Just think or how clean Houston might be!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2020, 12:28:01 PM
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america)

This models puts peak at two days ago.  The peak in different states will of course be different, some later than this.

Atlanta thinks it's past the peak and has managed with ICUs and hospital capacity.  A brand new hospital was partially rushed to handle the possible overload and we didn't need it apparently.

https://www.newsbreak.com/georgia/atlanta/news/0OgBdzrK/piedmont-hospital-opening-new-tower-early-for-coronavirus (https://www.newsbreak.com/georgia/atlanta/news/0OgBdzrK/piedmont-hospital-opening-new-tower-early-for-coronavirus)

Piedmont Atlanta Hospital’s new Marcus Tower will open four months early — on April 13 — to help treat the surge of coronavirus patients expected this month, the hospital announced Tuesday. The early opening will add three ICU and acute nursing units to Atlanta’s capacity. This will add a total of 132 additional beds, with 64 designated as critically-needed ICU beds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 13, 2020, 12:28:29 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 13, 2020, 12:22:00 PM
As of today only 7 other states had a lower death rate per 1 M/pop then Texas

at 278 deaths I consider us lucky so far
Yeah I think he IMHE model is predicting a total of 2.7K or so, and most of those will be coming over the next 2-3 weeks.  It's also possible we'll just continue under their forecasted trajectory.  Wouldn't that be nice?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 13, 2020, 12:29:18 PM
this wouldn't have been nearly the episode if not for NYC
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 13, 2020, 12:32:24 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 13, 2020, 12:28:01 PM
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america)

This models puts peak at two days ago.  The peak in different states will of course be different, some later than this.

Atlanta thinks it's past the peak and has managed with ICUs and hospital capacity.  A brand new hospital was partially rushed to handle the possible overload and we didn't need it apparently.

https://www.newsbreak.com/georgia/atlanta/news/0OgBdzrK/piedmont-hospital-opening-new-tower-early-for-coronavirus (https://www.newsbreak.com/georgia/atlanta/news/0OgBdzrK/piedmont-hospital-opening-new-tower-early-for-coronavirus)

Piedmont Atlanta Hospital’s new Marcus Tower will open four months early — on April 13 — to help treat the surge of coronavirus patients expected this month, the hospital announced Tuesday. The early opening will add three ICU and acute nursing units to Atlanta’s capacity. This will add a total of 132 additional beds, with 64 designated as critically-needed ICU beds.

Right.  Same model has the peak in Texas as April 28th or so.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2020, 12:43:48 PM
I don't see an IHME model for individual states.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 13, 2020, 12:56:57 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 13, 2020, 12:28:29 PM
Yeah I think he IMHE model is predicting a total of 2.7K or so, and most of those will be coming over the next 2-3 weeks.  It's also possible we'll just continue under their forecasted trajectory.  Wouldn't that be nice?
Hard to believe we will go from 278 to 2700 in three weeks

I think that projection is a tad high
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 13, 2020, 01:00:34 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 13, 2020, 12:43:48 PM
I don't see an IHME model for individual states.
It's there. Just tab down at the top of the page, where it says "United States of America".

Georgia's peak death rate will be in 14 days, according to this model.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 13, 2020, 01:07:01 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 13, 2020, 12:56:57 PM
Hard to believe we will go from 278 to 2700 in three weeks

I think that projection is a tad high

Well that's the nature of exponential growth.

But they're still applying exponential assumptions to something that might not actually be exponential.  Most major cities in Texas were already shutting down schools as of 3/13.  Social distancing orders, business shut-downs, and the like, started up over the following week.  So we're 3-4 weeks past the point when exposure was far more likely, than it was in later days.  If we're not seeing a large peak in hospitalizations right now, 3-4 weeks after exposure, then I'm not sure we'll see them at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2020, 01:40:23 PM
Got the state thing, thanks, just saw countries initially.  Epidemics ARE inherently exponential, it's just that the exponent can be less than one.  R-naught.

IF each person on average infects 2 more people, you have "exponential growth" , and if they infect 0.5 people, you have exponential decline.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 13, 2020, 01:45:20 PM
If your R0 is exactly 1 then it won't appear to be exponential. 

We really have no idea what a true R0 is for this thing yet.  We likely won't ever, but a year from now we'll have some reasonable estimates.

Anyway, I'm not certain the growth assumptions in this model are appropriate for Texas, and I'd be happy for the death toll to be significantly lower.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2020, 01:56:11 PM

That model for GA uses an assumption that nonessential businesses are NOT closed.  That is not correct.  Travel also has been curtailed significantly.

t R0 is an average. Let’s say the virus has an R0 of 2. This could mean that every single infected person passes the virus to two other people. It could also mean that one infected person is a “super-spreader” who infects 100 people, while 49 infected people infect no one. These two scenarios have radically different implications for what will happen during an outbreak.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 13, 2020, 02:05:35 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 13, 2020, 11:26:13 AM
I would note that hydrogen peroxide (3%) is pretty effective against pathogens, many of which are anaerobes.  It doesn't stink and it won't bleach a shirt or whatever (at least not right away).  It likely is less effective than soap against a virus.  You can even use it as mouthwash, though it tastes metallic.

Soap is preferred against viruses.  We might all find ourselves getting sick less often after this ...
My understanding is that's only true of certain virii, of which this is one. Soap dissolved the outer protein layer of the virus, rendering it completely unable to cause harm. However, there are other types of virii which aren't based upon this type of protein outer layer, and I believe soap is basically ineffective or minimally effective as it relates to those. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 13, 2020, 02:10:16 PM
This is what I said on another forum last Thursday:

---

We often think R0 for a virus is an independent variable, i.e. that a specific virus will spread to X additional people from one infected person. And that R0 for any specific virus is some inherent trait to that virus.

R0 is a dependent variable. Some things that it is dependent on are inherent to the specific characteristics of the virus and the disease it causes (incubation period, ability to transmit in the absence of symptoms, etc). But others are dependent on people--how much we social distance. Population density. Whether we're using mass transit or our own vehicles. What precautions (masks/handwashing/disinfecting surfaces) we're taking. Etc.

If R0 of COVID-19 was assumed to be 3 in normal conditions, and I was exposed to it the last time I left the house (last Friday), I'm now on my 6th day since leaving the house. The median incubation period is 5.1 days. In the interim the only person I've interacted with has been my wife, so my MAXIMUM R0 is 1. Under normal circumstances, if I'd gone into the office, if I'd done my normal levels of shopping/errands, if I'd been going to meet customers [and shaking hands], etc, it would be completely different.

This appears to be a highly transmissible virus. However, it's only transmissible if we give it a chance to find new uninfected hosts. If we don't, then it may be highly transmissible but won't be highly transmitted...

From XKCD: https://xkcd.com/2287/ (https://xkcd.com/2287/)

(https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/pathogen_resistance.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2020, 02:11:11 PM
That could be.  One advantage of soap and running water is the simple washing effect to remove contaminant, if not denature them.  What the alcohol cleaner doesn't kill is still there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 13, 2020, 03:02:45 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 13, 2020, 02:10:16 PM
This is what I said on another forum last Thursday:


you visit other forums???? :smiley_confused1:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 13, 2020, 03:23:26 PM
Yeah for sure, R0 is measured, it's not solely dependent on the nature of the virus itself.

Regardless of what it would have been before measures were taken, and what it might currently be, it appears that the model still isn't correct, at least in the state of Texas.  Currently it says we should be using something like 2.7K ICU beds for COVID patients, and in reality right now it's more like 1.2K.   This SHOULD translate into fewer deaths, 1-2 weeks from now ,than the model is currently predicting.

Sure hope so, that would be some good news indeed.



 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 13, 2020, 03:25:32 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 13, 2020, 03:02:45 PM
you visit other forums???? :smiley_confused1:
Not for CFB, of course. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 13, 2020, 03:31:11 PM
whew!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 13, 2020, 03:32:18 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 13, 2020, 03:23:26 PM
Yeah for sure, R0 is measured, it's not solely dependent on the nature of the virus itself.

seems it might be very different for West Texas rural as opposed to Houston or D/FW
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 13, 2020, 03:41:25 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 13, 2020, 03:32:18 PM
seems it might be very different for West Texas rural as opposed to Houston or D/FW
Well sure, just as it's different in NYC, compared to smaller places upstate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 13, 2020, 03:44:28 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 13, 2020, 03:31:11 PM
whew!
But does he practice safe posting???
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 13, 2020, 03:53:02 PM
Ohio Governor Mike Dewine is going to impliment restraints on travel from PA across the border to Ohio.Mostly Yinzers and Appalachians coming to buy Liquor,didn't know we had such good deals.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 13, 2020, 03:55:49 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 13, 2020, 03:44:28 PM
But does he practice safe posting???
of course, this isn't the Big 12 board
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 13, 2020, 03:59:25 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 13, 2020, 03:53:02 PM
Ohio Governor Mike Dewine is going to impliment restraints on travel from PA across the border to Ohio.Mostly Yinzers and Appalachians coming to buy Liquor,didn't know we had such good deals.
I don't know all the ins and outs of PA liquor laws, but I know they're pretty arcane: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcohol_laws_of_Pennsylvania (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcohol_laws_of_Pennsylvania)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 13, 2020, 04:00:53 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 13, 2020, 03:53:02 PM
Ohio Governor Mike Dewine is going to impliment restraints on travel from PA across the border to Ohio.Mostly Yinzers and Appalachians coming to buy Liquor,didn't know we had such good deals.
Are they coming from areas that have banned all liquor stores?  I hear that's happening in some states/locations.

Quote from: FearlessF on April 13, 2020, 03:55:49 PM
of course, this isn't the Big 12 board
Hey now!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 13, 2020, 04:02:19 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 13, 2020, 03:02:45 PM
you visit other forums???? :smiley_confused1:
Really,slippery,cheatin' Bastage,prolly taking tailgate recipes and claiming them as his own.Next thing he'll be telling us he brews his own suds
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 13, 2020, 04:06:53 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 13, 2020, 04:00:53 PM
Are they coming from areas that have banned all liquor stores?  I hear that's happening in some states/locations.
Hey now!
Well then they should have to pay tribute with some Yuengling - two can play this game.Move over Gov.!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 13, 2020, 04:11:22 PM
Just heard some establishments are dumping beer down the drain,health departments are saying this could harm the environment.Hell I'll take one for the team and collect it,
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2020, 04:34:40 PM
The restaurants have a quandary on beer, it does have an expiration date in kegs of course once opened, and they can't serve it after that.  Most places around here are selling their wine at half price, but it isn't really a great deal.  Most of the food we packed last week was already ordered and in stock or being delivered, so it would be wasted soon enough and discarded.  For a while I was breaking down boxes, it's amazing how much cardboard is used to ship food.  We had a pile 6 feet high and 10 feet on each edge.  They had processed eggs in jugs, I asked if there was a machine that broke the eggs and filled the jugs, nobody knew, obvious that was going bad soonish.  We had two reefers to keep things chilled.  Some of the potatoes had started to go bad.

So the companies like US Foods that donated a lot of food figured it was either that or the dumpster, the question was how to break it all down into separate packages.

A lot of good food gets wasted because it goes past Sell BY date.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 13, 2020, 04:53:33 PM
Here in Texas you can actually get Kroger to deliver beer to you as part of a grocery buy

We Texans are living on the edge as usual
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2020, 05:06:22 PM
The ATL now is open container legal as restaurants sell beer in cups and folks walk around with them.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 13, 2020, 05:23:07 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 13, 2020, 03:59:25 PM
I don't know all the ins and outs of PA liquor laws, but I know they're pretty arcane: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcohol_laws_of_Pennsylvania (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcohol_laws_of_Pennsylvania)
I found out about their booze laws the hard way, when I went to State College for a football game. Gator and I ended up having to "mooch" all day long from my friends who were also there. It sucked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 13, 2020, 06:50:23 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 13, 2020, 04:11:22 PM
Just heard some establishments are dumping beer down the drain,health departments are saying this could harm the environment.Hell I'll take one for the team and collect it,
I have multiple growlers and I'm doing my part

I have also entered by local small town bar through the back door to save a few pints from the drain
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 13, 2020, 06:52:02 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 13, 2020, 05:23:07 PM
I found out about their booze laws the hard way, when I went to State College for a football game. Gator and I ended up having to "mooch" all day long from my friends who were also there. It sucked.
could have been worse - at least you had friends that were moochable~
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 13, 2020, 07:10:17 PM
Had a similar experience my senior year. Oof, that sucked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 13, 2020, 07:46:01 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 13, 2020, 05:06:22 PM
The ATL now is open container legal as restaurants sell beer in cups and folks walk around with them.


Sounds like the WLOCP in Jax.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 13, 2020, 07:56:59 PM
and Lincoln on game day!

didn't work for Brent Mushburger
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 13, 2020, 09:29:31 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 13, 2020, 05:23:07 PM
I found out about their booze laws the hard way, when I went to State College for a football game. Gator and I ended up having to "mooch" all day long from my friends who were also there. It sucked.
I assumed every car registered in Chicago has four bottles of Malort hidden in the trunk for emergencies. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 13, 2020, 11:24:36 PM
I have to admit I’m going a little stir crazy.  Too much change in too short a window.  I am used to being out and about interacting with people.  I typically drive 4000-5000 miles per month.  I went from that to being home 23-24 hours per day for a month now, with almost every waking moment of that time being spent with my kids.  And don’t get me wrong, part of that has been great but it has had it’s challenges too.  And now I’m unemployed for the first time in almost 20 years.

Add no sports to enjoy, no gym to go to, no date nights with the wife, and it’s all been a bit much.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on April 14, 2020, 12:25:10 AM
I don't say this gleefully, but I've never been busier professionally in my life this past month.  Yes, we just went through the sale of our company, planned since November.   Combine that with the wild times in the market, keeping kids on task, this in some ways has been much more stressful than summer 2008 to spring 2009.

Meanwhile many of my neighbors can't find a thing to do for an hour, I would love an hour to myself.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 14, 2020, 12:54:33 AM
I'm at about as busy teaching high schoolers via "distance learning" as I was driving in to work and teaching in the classroom.  What I could do orally in the classroom, I now have to type into a computer.  For example, a 35-question online quiz requires me to make 210 separate data entries, one for each question stem plus five separate answer choices for each question.  In class, I'd print the quizzes, then pass them out, and when time was up the students would exchange papers and we'd grade them.  Easy!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 14, 2020, 08:26:35 AM
We've oversold our forecast by 400% or so.  When tens of thousands of businesses all switch their employees to WFH over a 3-week stretch, our sales skyrocketed.  However, we're predicting a very soft second half to the year.  So I've been very busy at work, as well.

Working with the kids home was tough, and now that my wife is laid off and home all the time as well, I thought it would be easier and she'd manage the kids, but so far they all just bother me more... :)

Things will settle down though.  The kids are getting used to their school-from-home and my wife is working on her new business plan.  Of course, she doesn't know how to do one, so I'm basically writing it with her input, and putting together all of the pro forma numbers, and searching for potential commercial properties, but... yeah, I'm sure things will settle down soon. ;)


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 14, 2020, 08:50:04 AM
As we are retired, this has had a lot less impact on us that for many/most.  I imagine we are saving money because of dining out less (and then it's only take out) and dropping the trip to Turkey (Hilton reimbursed me for the two rooms).  We still have that Baltic cruise on the books for September but I'm 90% sure that will be delayed.

The wife is wanting me to book Hawaii over Christmas but I'm in no hurry, airline rates have no dropped for that.  It's another perfect day here and I'm sure we'll do our walk in the park etc.  I'm going to try the new burger place for lunch, folks have told me he burgers are incredibly good, Sam's San Francisco Burgers.

Imagine this happened in 1980, or even 1990, and how little access we would have had to much beyond TV and landlines.  I wish the library would reopen soon.

We had lentils last night with our neighbor flavored with leftover lamb.  We all really enjoyed that, simple dish.

He's talking about a trip to South Africa once this lifts.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 14, 2020, 08:51:26 AM
I'm very busy at work as well and working from the office

I have a small understanding of Kris60. The traveling salesmen that usually stop by my office or meet me on the golf course or take me to dinner after work are having trouble.  They are used to being on the road and using their skills to meet and greet and schmooze.

Since that isn't happening, many of them have been calling me sometimes twice a day just to talk.  Many of these types can talk for well over 30 minutes at at a time. 

Most of them are doing very well in generating sales, they just really miss the interaction
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 14, 2020, 08:54:01 AM
The Texas kid tells me he is incredibly busy, even working long hours when he was sick. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 14, 2020, 09:20:32 AM
"The Texas Kid."  Sounds like a character in an old western. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2020, 09:31:44 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 13, 2020, 09:29:31 PM
I assumed every car registered in Chicago has four bottles of Malort hidden in the trunk for emergencies.
Well... I flew there. I've been to State College 3 times for games and have never driven it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 14, 2020, 10:09:22 AM
Our county just issued a "wear mask at all times" order.  Looks like it doesn't apply when you're exercising as long as you can maintain 6' distance from others at all times.  And it doesn't apply to people in the same family unit while in their home or on their propety.

But basically, it's now mandatory for anyone going to the grocery store, or their doctor, or whatever, to wear a mask.

And the city has some pretty heavily used hike and bike trails, especially in the urban core.  I'm assuming they'll enforce it down there, as it's pretty tough to maintain 6' from others, even now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 14, 2020, 10:18:01 AM
Some localities have laws on the books against the wearing of masks in public.

I wonder when a mayor's order (versus a legislated law) can have legal authority in a court for anyone charged with disobedience.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2020, 10:26:23 AM
I'll be a lot less on edge tomorrow morning when the kids go back to their mom's house. 

Between trying to work from home full time, manage a hyper puppy, be a substitute teacher to the kids (especially the one w/ autism), it's fraying my last nerve. My wife being in healthcare still goes to the office every day. If she was also working from home it might share the load with the puppy a little bit, as they've been very slow at her office (and all patients are seen via telemed), but they don't have a WFH infrastructure in place. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2020, 10:37:49 AM
So, an order to wear a mask? Where do we find those? In the Fed stash?

My wife has made about 35 so far, and is now waiting for more elastic to come so she can make more. We have the same "order" here, since last week. Good luck trying to go buy one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 14, 2020, 10:41:04 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2020, 10:37:49 AM
So, an order to wear a mask? Where do we find those? In the Fed stash?

My wife has made about 35 so far, and is now waiting for more elastic to come so she can make more. We have the same "order" here, since last week. Good luck trying to go buy one.
Yup, valid questions.  My mom made a bunch for our family so we're covered.  I didn't look into the specific subsections on this one, but I believe they suggest any face covering, so a bandana or a scarf should also suffice.

I won't debate the quality or level of protection a scarf might offer, for either the wearer or others around him, but there you have it...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 14, 2020, 10:49:06 AM
this is what Utee will look like next week




(https://i0.wp.com/clothesonfilm.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/The-Lone-Ranger_Armie-Hammer-mask-top_Image-credit-Disney-Enterprises-Inc.jpg?fit=800%2C496&ssl=1&w=640)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2020, 11:00:33 AM
My wife was able to find some specs for masks on line, and patterns. She made them to N95 spec, which is good. Lots of double stitching and such, and felt inside.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on April 14, 2020, 11:13:20 AM
My wife and I have both been busy as hell in the last month. We've shuffled some of our furniture around to make our work spaces more defined. 

My folks have been retired for a few years, and they're in pretty good shape. My wife has expended a lot of emotional energy getting her folks through the myriad of unemployment insurance in their state. 

Has it already been a month since this thing went haywire? Good grief, it feels like 10 years. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 14, 2020, 11:18:03 AM
I doubt my county will require a mask anytime soon...............  Woodbury County - pop. 103,000

_________________________________________________ ____________________________

Siouxland District Health Department on Tuesday said that a woman age 41-60 has tested positive for COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus. It's the 21st case in Woodbury County. There have been 552 negative tests.

The health department also reported that both people who had been hospitalized as a result of the virus have been discharged. Of the 21 cases thus far, 11 people have recovered.

Woodbury County reported two new cases on Monday.

Through Monday, Iowa has had a total of 1,710 cases and 43 deaths while 741 have recovered.


_________________________________________________ _____________________________

so, 43 + 741 = 784

1710 - 784 = 926 cases

so, 926 cases are still sick or have symptoms, can't be sure if they recovered????
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 14, 2020, 11:19:11 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 14, 2020, 10:09:22 AM
Our county just issued a "wear mask at all times" order.  Looks like it doesn't apply when you're exercising as long as you can maintain 6' distance from others at all times.  
I had a silly thought along these lines - slow people are S.O.L. if it came down to it.  Infected, fast people could run up on them and infect them.  They'd have no recourse.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 14, 2020, 11:21:25 AM
I've just been wearing a bandana when I've gone into a store.  I run in, yell "Nobody move!" and then go on about my shopping.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 14, 2020, 11:23:09 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 14, 2020, 11:19:11 AM
I had a silly thought along these lines - slow people are S.O.L. if it came down to it.  Infected, fast people could run up on them and infect them.  They'd have no recourse. 
Every time I'm out running, or even walking the dog, I've definitely got my head on a swivel to see if anyone is approaching.

And I hate running with earbuds/headphones, so I can usually hear anything that's approaching, which is helpful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 14, 2020, 11:26:00 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 14, 2020, 11:21:25 AM
I've just been wearing a bandana when I've gone into a store.  I run in, yell "Nobody move!" and then go on about my shopping.
😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 14, 2020, 11:26:30 AM
the Afroman shopping

(https://image.shutterstock.com/image-photo/old-west-bandit-outlaw-covered-260nw-196963964.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 14, 2020, 11:27:08 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 14, 2020, 11:23:09 AM
Every time I'm out running, or even walking the dog, I've definitely got my head on a swivel to see if anyone is approaching.

And I hate running with earbuds/headphones, so I can usually hear anything that's approaching, which is helpful.
you're not as fast as you used to be
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 14, 2020, 11:55:05 AM
Well that's the truth
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 14, 2020, 12:16:45 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2020, 10:37:49 AM
So, an order to wear a mask? Where do we find those? In the Fed stash?

My wife has made about 35 so far, and is now waiting for more elastic to come so she can make more. We have the same "order" here, since last week. Good luck trying to go buy one.
A lady who volunteers at the FoodBank gave Cindy and I  Knitted masks she made,that you put a coffee filter inside of.Nice gesture but still have to either spray it down or hand wash after every use.On the other side of the coin a good friend who is an Electrician has a daughter working in the ER of one of the areas largest Hospitals said they've only had 29 admissions for this virus so far.Ohio state wide has had 2,300 admissions as of yesterday
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 14, 2020, 12:22:12 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 14, 2020, 11:18:03 AM
I doubt my county will require a mask anytime soon...............  Woodbury County - pop. 103,000
Think you're suppose to say don't move here and thank you for your cooperation
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2020, 12:23:10 PM
Ok then.

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/u-s-diplomats-warned-about-safety-risks-in-wuhan-labs-studying-bats-two-years-before-coronavirus-outbreak/

Interesting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 14, 2020, 12:25:11 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 14, 2020, 11:21:25 AM
I've just been wearing a bandana when I've gone into a store.  I run in, yell "Nobody move!" and then go on about my shopping.
Don't do that!!!They're will be a spike in TP use - then another run on it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 14, 2020, 12:28:28 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 14, 2020, 12:22:12 PM
Think you're suppose to say don't move here and thank you for your cooperation
I would, but that backfired on Utee, BIGTIME
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on April 14, 2020, 12:37:24 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2020, 12:23:10 PM
Ok then.

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/u-s-diplomats-warned-about-safety-risks-in-wuhan-labs-studying-bats-two-years-before-coronavirus-outbreak/

Interesting.
I'm not poohing your post, but only to say, there are 100s of things that people are warning anybody that will listen about.   The sky is falling all the time for some % of the populace.  We are all very good at ignoring 'warning signs' wo even trying.    Everybody saw the market tanking.....in hindsight. 
We all knew New Orleans was under sea level.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 14, 2020, 12:45:40 PM
I've sewn a few, but I'm waiting on more backing material.

We're now instructed to wear masks anytime we exercise, so I tried it out this morning. Not great, but not a deal breaker, either.
(https://i.imgur.com/fnRoJ1A.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2020, 01:05:44 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 14, 2020, 11:18:03 AM
so, 43 + 741 = 784

1710 - 784 = 926 cases

so, 926 cases are still sick or have symptoms, can't be sure if they recovered????
I've been confused about this. 

As of right now, the US has almost 600K cases, but only 62K have resolved in either death or official "recovered". https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

Yet of those remaining 540K cases, only about 13K are considered "serious, critical". 

For the life of me, I can't find any actual definition of what it takes for a case to be considered "recovered".
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 14, 2020, 01:14:32 PM
I don't even know who is counted as a "confirmed case".  Does that mean tested positive?

My step daughter was sick and tested negative and her MD said "It doesn't mean anything.".

Huh.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 14, 2020, 01:21:04 PM
jesus christ, CNN should be renamed Clown News Network. How does the media not see why when Trump calls them Fake News it lands? They are completely oblivious to reality. It's astonishing.

Also, anyone see Dr. Fauci eviscerate that despicable female reporter? Guess who her husband is....a lobbyist for...CHINA.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 14, 2020, 01:21:34 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2020, 12:23:10 PM
Ok then.

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/u-s-diplomats-warned-about-safety-risks-in-wuhan-labs-studying-bats-two-years-before-coronavirus-outbreak/

Interesting.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8211291/U-S-government-gave-3-7million-grant-Wuhan-lab-experimented-coronavirus-source-bats.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2020, 01:25:51 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 14, 2020, 01:14:32 PM
I don't even know who is counted as a "confirmed case".  Does that mean tested positive?

My step daughter was sick and tested negative and her MD said "It doesn't mean anything.".

Huh.
According to the CDC:


Quote
Data include confirmed, presumptive positive, and probable cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.


I assume "confirmed" means tested positive, but that's not everything that exists in the counts, apparently. 

Of course that doesn't give you any indication whether your daughter is counted or not... 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 14, 2020, 01:28:41 PM
Quote from: MarqHusker on April 14, 2020, 12:37:24 PM

We all knew New Orleans was under sea level.
Still is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 14, 2020, 01:29:16 PM
"confirmed, presumptive positive, and probable cases"

My step daughter lives in France.  I think the above means "in someone's opinion"  ....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 14, 2020, 01:29:27 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 14, 2020, 01:21:04 PM
Also, anyone see Dr. Fauci eviscerate that despicable female reporter? Guess who her husband is....a lobbyist for...CHINA.
Countries have their own lobbyists?  
Calm down, man, you're starting to froth.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 14, 2020, 01:30:47 PM
IMF is predicting the greatest global economic contraction since the Great Depression. The Great Recession of 2009 the global economy shrank .1%. IMF is projecting the global economy is going to shrink 3% this year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 14, 2020, 01:31:45 PM
https://www.opensecrets.org/fara (https://www.opensecrets.org/fara)


Obviously, countries do have their own lobbyists, I'm not sure why anyone would think otherwise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 14, 2020, 01:32:22 PM
I didn't see Dr. Fauci respond to that despicable reporter, it sounds epic.

Found it:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/13/fauci_to_cbs_paula_reid_everything_i_do_is_voluntarily.html (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/13/fauci_to_cbs_paula_reid_everything_i_do_is_voluntarily.html)

Incidentally, she is with CBS, not CNN.

Paula Reid Husband

Paula is married to Jason Kolsevich, a management consultant at Water Street Partners. The couple got married in April 2018 in an intimate ceremony at the Mansion on Turner Hill in Ipswich, Massachusetts near Paula’s hometown.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 14, 2020, 01:37:20 PM
I'll be pretty surprised if the global economy only shrinks by 3% this year.  I'd consider that an unbelievable positive outcome.  But I don't see it. 

The good news is I think it will be pretty much recovered in 15-18 months.  Well, in the USA it will be.  We're going to fare much better than many other countries.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2020, 01:38:05 PM
I noticed her yesterday too. All she tries to do it bait, so she can do the GOTCHA!! thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 14, 2020, 01:40:54 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 14, 2020, 01:37:20 PM
I'll be pretty surprised if the global economy only shrinks by 3% this year. 
I think it matters when the start and stop date is.  If we measure from Jan 1 to Dec 31, 3% is not a ridiculous figure I think.  We might drop say 15% or more this quarter and see maybe 0--5% year over year in the next quarter and then up 10% the next.  Q1 would be roughly flat.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 14, 2020, 01:41:34 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 14, 2020, 01:29:27 PM
Countries have their own lobbyists? 
Calm down, man, you're starting to froth.
Yes, countries do hire lobbyists to push their agendas in DC. How have you never heard of this? Mike Flynn- I'm sure you've heard of him- well he was a lobbyist for Turkey.

I was/am pretty disgusted with that lady. Dr. Fauci was a hardcore Hillary Clinton supporter last election, that has been well documented by him over the years and WikiLeaks leaked emails- so you know he's probably not the biggest fan of the President- and the guy is doing the best job that he can in a really crazy time with a strange new disease- and he's really a guy to be admired imo- and for that stupid c##t to insinuate that he's being held hostage or being forced to do/say things- just unreal. He's a bigger man than I. I wouldn't have given her a nasty stare. I probably would've verbally assaulted her and made her cry.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 14, 2020, 02:01:12 PM
Near the end, Fauci speculated about the possibility that there will be a resurgence of Zika (http://www.healio.com/infectious-disease/resource-centers/{ae0ca19e-6608-4a09-b934-d69615ab10fb}/zika-resource-center) this summer. The virus has caused many travel-related cases in the U.S. and some locally acquired cases in Florida and Texas. Fauci said other concerns for the Trump administration include the potential for a new influenza pandemic and outbreaks of diseases that are not yet on anyone’s radar.

“What about the things we are not even thinking about?” he said. “No matter what, history has told us definitively that [outbreaks] will happen because [facing] infectious diseases is a perpetual challenge. It is not going to go away. The thing we’re extraordinarily confident about is that we’re going to see this in the next few years.” –

https://www.healio.com/infectious-disease/emerging-diseases/news/online/%7B85a3f9c0-ed0a-4be8-9ca2-8854b2be7d13%7D/fauci-no-doubt-trump-will-face-surprise-infectious-disease-outbreak (https://www.healio.com/infectious-disease/emerging-diseases/news/online/{85a3f9c0-ed0a-4be8-9ca2-8854b2be7d13}/fauci-no-doubt-trump-will-face-surprise-infectious-disease-outbreak)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 14, 2020, 02:03:12 PM
In his more than 30 years at NIH, Dr. Fauci has worked under six different presidents, who were both Democrats and Republicans, but the doctor has never publicly confirmed which political party he identifies with. 

https://www.distractify.com/p/dr-fauci-political-affiliation (https://www.distractify.com/p/dr-fauci-political-affiliation)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 14, 2020, 02:05:33 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 14, 2020, 02:01:12 PM
Near the end, Fauci speculated about the possibility that there will be a resurgence of Zika (http://www.healio.com/infectious-disease/resource-centers/{ae0ca19e-6608-4a09-b934-d69615ab10fb}/zika-resource-center) this summer. The virus has caused many travel-related cases in the U.S. and some locally acquired cases in Florida and Texas. Fauci said other concerns for the Trump administration include the potential for a new influenza pandemic and outbreaks of diseases that are not yet on anyone’s radar.

“What about the things we are not even thinking about?” he said. “No matter what, history has told us definitively that [outbreaks] will happen because [facing] infectious diseases is a perpetual challenge. It is not going to go away. The thing we’re extraordinarily confident about is that we’re going to see this in the next few years.” –

https://www.healio.com/infectious-disease/emerging-diseases/news/online/%7B85a3f9c0-ed0a-4be8-9ca2-8854b2be7d13%7D/fauci-no-doubt-trump-will-face-surprise-infectious-disease-outbreak (https://www.healio.com/infectious-disease/emerging-diseases/news/online/{85a3f9c0-ed0a-4be8-9ca2-8854b2be7d13}/fauci-no-doubt-trump-will-face-surprise-infectious-disease-outbreak)
Honestly- with the way the world is now- so easy to travel anywhere across the globe and with millions and millions of people flying all over the world every single day- it was only a matter of time. Especially when a large portion of that travel involves a country as filthy, dirty, and disgusting as China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 14, 2020, 02:07:35 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 14, 2020, 02:03:12 PM
In his more than 30 years at NIH, Dr. Fauci has worked under six different presidents, who were both Democrats and Republicans, but the doctor has never publicly confirmed which political party he identifies with.

https://www.distractify.com/p/dr-fauci-political-affiliation (https://www.distractify.com/p/dr-fauci-political-affiliation)
Could've sworn he was buddy buddy with the Clinton's and everyone knew it. Regardless, WikiLeaks leaked Hillary emails showed he supported Hillary. 

WikiLeaks was one of the greatest organizations in the history of the world. Easy to see why US gov't is trying to destroy Assange/them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 14, 2020, 02:09:25 PM
I have seen zero evidence that he supported Clinton, but I could have missed it.  I did see some accusations made by some on line that had nothing to back up their claims.

I don't know what wikileaks said about him.  And the reporter is with CBS, that much is quite clear.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 14, 2020, 02:09:39 PM
ever wonder why MSNBC brings on people to praise China? I don't think I've seen them one time really rip into China or the WHO for their complete and utter failures and their corruption and cover-ups and lies.

Hmmm. Might be because their parent company NBCUniversal- which is a wholly owned subsidiary of Comcast- has massive partnership deals with Chinese companies! China funds movies for their Universal Pictures & DreamWorks film studios- multi-billion dollar a year arms of NBCUniversal's business. China by the way has become one of the biggest sources of funding for Hollywood movies.

NBCUniversal's Universal Studios theme parks division is smack dab in the middle of building a $6.5 BILLION theme park in Beijing- construction started last year- with $3 billion in investment coming from China.

It's actually pretty sickening to me. These gigantic conglomerates need to be broken up. The reason why the news media is such garbage is a result of these giant conglomerates putting money before truth.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 14, 2020, 02:10:29 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 14, 2020, 02:09:25 PM
I have seen zero evidence that he supported Clinton, but I could have missed it.  I did see some accusations made by some on line that had nothing to back up their claims.

I don't know what wikileaks said about him.  And the reporter is with CBS, that much is quite clear.
I never said she was with CNN. I know she's with CBS.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 14, 2020, 02:15:19 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 14, 2020, 01:21:04 PM
jesus christ, CNN should be renamed Clown News Network. How does the media not see why when Trump calls them Fake News it lands? They are completely oblivious to reality. It's astonishing.

Also, anyone see Dr. Fauci eviscerate that despicable female reporter? Guess who her husband is....a lobbyist for...CHINA.
I guess you meant to have these separated, that you don't like CNN and separately that despicable reporter works for another entity.  Fair enough.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 14, 2020, 02:18:42 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 14, 2020, 02:15:19 PM
I guess you meant to have these separated, that you don't like CNN and separately that despicable reporter works for another entity.  Fair enough.
CNN went bat shit crazy with their chyrons and their commentary.

https://twitter.com/RubinReport/status/1249842568470224897?s=20
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 14, 2020, 02:18:58 PM
Still frothing.  Breathe.  Jesus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 14, 2020, 02:20:45 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 14, 2020, 02:18:58 PM
Still frothing.  Breathe.  Jesus.
I always disliked the media. They have made me completely hate them. And it just gets worse and worse.

Seems like I'm not the only one. CNN's star anchor- Chris Cuomo- who is battling COVID-19 was on a radio interview last night where he basically trashed CNN and said he hates his job and thinks it's nothing but bullshit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2020, 02:21:02 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 14, 2020, 02:07:35 PM
Could've sworn he was buddy buddy with the Clinton's and everyone knew it. Regardless, WikiLeaks leaked Hillary emails showed he supported Hillary. 

WikiLeaks was one of the greatest organizations in the history of the world. Easy to see why US gov't is trying to destroy Assange/them.
Well, let's be frank...

He was in his position during Bill Clinton's administration. As a result, he would absolutely have come across Hillary, especially since she was promoting a health care plan.

After Clinton's terms, I'm sure if they had a good relationship from his time in office they'd probably have remained at least cordial afterwards--I don't know if that's "exchanging Christmas cards" or if it's "being buddy buddy", but it's not like he just disavows any personal relationship with an outgoing President just because a new one shows up.

Then, he was in Obama's administration while she was Secretary of State. It's not to say that an infectious disease expert would be in a close working relationship with SecState, but I'm sure they crossed paths. 

So, he had a choice in 2016 between supporting someone with a history in politics / public roles, someone he had personal knowledge of and a personal relationship with (and I'm assuming a level of mutual respect/trust)... Or a brash reality TV star with absolutely no experience...

One doesn't have to assume he supported Hillary because Fauci is a raging leftist Democrat. The simpler explanation is that he was supporting the woman he knew, and who he thought capable, over someone that he didn't know and whose public persona left grave doubt about his temperament for the job.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 14, 2020, 02:23:35 PM
Maybe focus on the subject of the reporting instead of the reporting itself.  Let's talk about Trump's propaganda video and how the president's authority is "total", shall we?  
Dwelling on the coverage takes away from the content of the reality.  Hmm, seems like a great tactic to me....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 14, 2020, 02:25:36 PM
I've been on CNN twice, quite a while back now.  It was interesting to see out of two one hour interviews what snippets were shown.  There was some spin involved in my opinion, especially the second interview, that did not fairly reflect what I had said.

I expect this is quite common especially in TV/cable.  I've seen many examples where "they" start with the conclusion and then force fit stuff to match that.  I thought 60 Minutes was particularly egregious in this many years back.  They had some really bad shows about topics I knew something about, and it was clear they had their thesis up front and couldn't alter it because it would lose impact even when the facts were clear.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 14, 2020, 02:26:05 PM
In an ideal world, none of us would have any notion of the political views of anyone else here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 14, 2020, 02:31:10 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 14, 2020, 02:21:02 PM
One doesn't have to assume he supported Hillary because Fauci is a raging leftist Democrat. The simpler explanation is that he was supporting the woman he knew, and who he thought capable, over someone that he didn't know and whose public persona left graha doubt about his temperament for the job. 

Fauci seems like a great guy. I felt terrible for him when that disgraceful woman attacked him like that- suggesting the guy has no integrity or backbone and is just a pawn. Absolutely despicable to treat a Dr. that is trying to help save lives like that. That bitch should be ashamed of herself.

Democrats aren't leftist. They are pretty much what moderate republicans used to be in the '80s. Obama said this about himself. His healthcare plan for instance- was an evolution of a Republican Governor- Mitt Romney's Massachusetts state healthcare plan- a plan that was backed by a conservative think tank called the Heritage Foundation. Very few Democrats are actually leftists. Republicans/Democrats are virtually the same guy. Very subtle differences. That's another debate for another time though.

Hillary's leaked emails showed he was super-tight with the Hilz. He sent her emails saying her speeches were so great he was crying- stuff like that. Which- more power to him. I'm not knocking him at all and I never did.

I was just saying it's pretty safe to assume he probably doesn't see everything the way Trump sees it. And the guy is doing his best in a very difficult situation. And I think he's someone that should be admired. And this bimbo reporter thinks she can just trash him like that. F her. Who the F is she? He's a good man, because I wouldn't have taken that from her and only given her a death stare. I would've went nuclear. Fauci seems like a great guy.

Hate to say it, but I can 100% see why Trump attacks them back and calls them losers and disgraceful and 3rd rate to their faces. The media is just making the guy more powerful. And I was never a fan of his. Still am not. They've lost any teeny tiny bit of credibility they had left over from pushing the Iraq War/WMD BS and covering for Obama's expansion of W's policies. The msm morons trashed W for the same stuff that they never said a word about Obama doing. And now they've completely lost the plot since the "scary bad orange man" got into office.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 14, 2020, 02:45:12 PM
1,555 deaths reported thus far today, NY and NJ report 778 and 362 of that figure.  I presume most of those are in the greater NYC metroplex.  That is 73% of the countries reports (granted the west coast may report later).

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 14, 2020, 02:51:18 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 14, 2020, 02:23:35 PM
Maybe focus on the subject of the reporting instead of the reporting itself.  Let's talk about Trump's propaganda video and how the president's authority is "total", shall we? 
Dwelling on the coverage takes away from the content of the reality.  Hmm, seems like a great tactic to me....
Not sure the video was really propaganda- but whatever. I'd call the NY Times sitting on a sexual assault story on Joe Biden for nearly 3 weeks- burying it on page 20 on EASTER SUNDAY- and then editing said story after it was first published online- and then deleting their tweet about said story with an excerpt and hyperlink to the story at the behest of Joe Biden's campaign far more egregious and far closer to propaganda than that silly promo video Trump did. Compare the NYT coverage to that allegation say to the one vs Brett Kavanaguh. LOL.

That Trump video by the way CORRECTLY pointed out the media and Democrats like Biden and Pelosi's hypocrisy and downplaying of the coronavirus. Pelosi was out and about on Feb. 24th in Chinatown saying come to Chinatown! Spend your cash! Don't stay inside! Biden's senile old ass was calling Trump a xenophobe and a racist for instituting a travel ban with China. Hmmm wonder why. Could it have anything at all to do with his son getting a $1.5 billion loan from the CCP?

He's wrong- but so are the people saying he's wrong. This isn't a black and white thing. We are talking about an unprecedented situation in the history of this freaking country. Who decides when the states/economy will re-open- wouldn't be surprised if that is litigated in the courts. This is uncharted waters. Our economy/society isn't set-up to completely shutdown. If this economy doesn't re-open and re-open sooner than later- we could be living through another great depression. And me personally- I am NOT ok with that to save thousands of lives. Not even my own. Sorry. F that. I'm not living like a hermit in my house in fear for 6 months while the world around me crashes and burns into the ground.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 14, 2020, 02:57:45 PM
Ideally, in this site, none of us would have an inkling as to the politics of anyone else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 14, 2020, 03:37:28 PM
You mean like supreme court nominees?  
Personally, on this thread, mdot21 is being an unbearable radical conservative and it stinks.
But I'm no one of any consequence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 14, 2020, 03:50:37 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 14, 2020, 03:37:28 PM
You mean like supreme court nominees? 
Personally, on this thread, mdot21 is being an unbearable radical conservative and it stinks.
But I'm no one of any consequence.
I was planning on voting for Bernie Sanders until the DNC screwed him over again FYI. But OK.

The term conservative doesn’t mean what you think it does. 

And when has this country/economy ever voluntarily gone on complete lockdown? We are living through something that this country has never been through before in it’s 244 year history. We have no precedent for this. How to handle this is not so black and white.

Disease is a part of life. People dying is a part of life. I’ve had a family member who had this and got better. It’s not as deadly as the media is hyping it up to be. The fatality rate isn’t something insane like Ebola. The actual fatality rate is probably under 1%. I’m not living afraid and locked up in my home forever. This shit has to end and end sooner than later.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2020, 03:51:45 PM
No politics please.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 14, 2020, 03:54:59 PM
Agree on no politics.

Also agree that we're fast approaching the time to open back up.  Early to mid-May will make sense to me for most places, other than hotspots where the rules will need to be different.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2020, 04:01:04 PM
The three Pacific states announced their framework to reopen about an hour ago, but did not offer a date.

I'd provide a link to a news story, but can't find any that have given a solid summation yet. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2020, 04:07:38 PM
I'm glad they are working together. I think as a part of this, doesn't travel within the country, from certain states, or to certain states, need to be limited? You really don't want people from Detroit or Chicago or Miami flying out to LAX, SFO, PDX or SEA right now, let alone NYC, right?

So, a coordinated effort is really necessary here. That's probably where the Federal government needs to be involved, and only with that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 14, 2020, 04:12:31 PM
I think the President should use passive approval with the states

Let them do their thing and only get involved if for any state that waits way beyond reason

Once the first one or two states open up the others will follow in short order

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2020, 04:13:04 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2020, 04:07:38 PM
I'm glad they are working together. I think as a part of this, doesn't travel within the country, from certain states, or to certain states, need to be limited? You really don't want people from Detroit or Chicago or Miami flying out to LAX, SFO, PDX or SEA right now, let alone NYC, right?

So, a coordinated effort is really necessary here. That's probably where the Federal government needs to be involved, and only with that.
Travel isn't banned today. If I wanted to hop on an airplane and fly to Denver tomorrow (I just looked that up as an example since I fly SNA->DEN often for work) there are three nonstop flights on Southwest and a bunch of alternate routings with stops.

There are only two flights out of LaGuardia headed to LAX, one through Houston and one through Denver. But they're there and for sale. 

So that would be even more restrictive than we have right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2020, 04:15:53 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 14, 2020, 04:13:04 PM
Travel isn't banned today. If I wanted to hop on an airplane and fly to Denver tomorrow (I just looked that up as an example since I fly SNA->DEN often for work) there are three nonstop flights on Southwest and a bunch of alternate routings with stops.

There are only two flights out of LaGuardia headed to LAX, one through Houston and one through Denver. But they're there and for sale.

So that would be even more restrictive than we have right now.
I'm aware of that. It probably should be more restrictive if "we" are going to "open things up", no? In other words, people in CA need to stay in CA, but start to resume a "normal" life again, with precautions in place, of course. Illinois is not ready for that yet, in my opinion. Florida neither.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 14, 2020, 04:36:14 PM
A lot of what is "shut down" is voluntary anyway.  Restaurants could open, but how many will go out early on?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 14, 2020, 04:42:33 PM
Retail stores, bars, restaurants, movie theaters, event venues-- all are shut down in most communities and they are a huge portion of the cratering economy.

And I think younger people-- college age kids and young professionals-- would immediately flock back to them.  In a lot of cases they're still meeting in relatively large groups anyway, and never stopped.

My neighbors' kids are in college at Texas Tech, and Arkansas.  When their colleges shut-down and went virtual, they returned home and schooled-from-home for maybe two weeks.  Even then they were constantly leaving to go meet friends and, after those couple weeks, they took off, went back to their apartments on campuses, and are continuing on as before.  No doubt in my mind that as soon as the bars and restaurants and movie theaters and shopping malls reopen, they'll be there.

They're not afraid, on their own behalves, for any number of reasons.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 14, 2020, 04:49:09 PM
It's almost as if they would all go to the beaches on spring break and party in crowds, which could never happen, they are too sensible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2020, 04:55:01 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 14, 2020, 04:49:09 PM
It's almost as if they would all go to the beaches on spring break and party in crowds, which could never happen, they are too sensible.
More sensible would have been to close the beaches before that, but there were so many conflicting things coming from all over the place on the risks of this thing. 

Between the WHO tweet (no evidence of human transfer) in late January and Dr. Fauci being on record telling healthy people it was OK to go on cruises in mid-March - and so much in between.. people were confused.

Many still are.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 14, 2020, 04:57:43 PM

Quote
It's almost as if they would all go to the beaches on spring break and party in crowds, which could never happen, they are too sensible.


Heh... exactly.

But I do agree that there will be varying degrees of concern, and thus varying timing to when people choose to "go out" again.  Which is one reason I'm not overly concerned about a second massive wave beginning 3 weeks after we "open up."  Even if we opened every single thing tomorrow, including large sporting events, people are going to practice their own versions of social distancing depending on their levels of concern.  That will potentially act as a natural buffer toward rapid disease communication.

For sure, the disease will spread more, after we reopen.  And we actually need it to do so.  We just want it to do so, slowly enough, that it doesn't overwhelm hospitals and ICUs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 14, 2020, 05:10:40 PM
J&J says it will have hundreds of millions of vaccines in a year if the stuff is approved as functioning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2020, 05:16:17 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 14, 2020, 04:57:43 PM
But I do agree that there will be varying degrees of concern, and thus varying timing to when people choose to "go out" again.  Which is one reason I'm not overly concerned about a second massive wave beginning 3 weeks after we "open up."  Even if we opened every single thing tomorrow, including large sporting events, people are going to practice their own versions of social distancing depending on their levels of concern.  That will potentially act as a natural buffer toward rapid disease communication.
Yeah, I think this might be one reason that Sweden, which hasn't closed schools and is not enforcing a "stay at home" as much as here, isn't doing as bad as you might theoretically predict. 

Because sometimes you actually don't need to TELL people to socially distance for them to do it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2020, 05:21:29 PM
Most people I know started "staying away" in early March. Some took longer than others, and then the "stay at home" order came in after the primary election was held. Grrr...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 14, 2020, 05:30:30 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 14, 2020, 02:21:02 PM
Well, let's be frank...

One doesn't have to assume he supported Hillary because Fauci is a raging leftist Democrat. The simpler explanation is that he was supporting the woman he knew, and who he thought capable, over someone that he didn't know and whose public persona left grave doubt about his temperament for the job. 
perhaps he simply didn't want to commit suicide 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 14, 2020, 05:31:57 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 14, 2020, 02:26:05 PM
In an ideal world, none of us would have any notion of the political views of anyone else here.
in an ideal world, Facebook wouldn't exist
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 14, 2020, 05:46:06 PM
I love Facebook, such a great way to include grandparents and uncles and aunts and cousins and nieces and nephews in our life with pictures and videos!   I also get to keep up with some of my longtime friends that now live all over the world, in a way that's just not possible with phones or texting.

If you're taking Facebook too seriously, or heaven forbid getting your "news" from it, well, that's on you...

JMO of course. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 14, 2020, 05:51:10 PM
it's tough to scroll through FB with all the political crap

someone should start up a FB with zero political tolerance

like this place ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 14, 2020, 06:17:02 PM
I have a FB account but Im not active

Im a lurker

I tune in to all me relations accounts just to see their latest pictures etc but I dont participate in their banter

especially my commie brother who is left leaning prof at Northern Iowa Univ

I love him but we leave politics out of our communication just for sanity sake
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 14, 2020, 07:05:07 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on April 14, 2020, 11:13:20 AM
My wife and I have both been busy as hell in the last month. We've shuffled some of our furniture around to make our work spaces more defined.

My folks have been retired for a few years, and they're in pretty good shape. My wife has expended a lot of emotional energy getting her folks through the myriad of unemployment insurance in their state.

Has it already been a month since this thing went haywire? Good grief, it feels like 10 years.
You are not kidding!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 14, 2020, 07:21:49 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 14, 2020, 03:50:37 PM
I was planning on voting for Bernie Sanders until the DNC screwed him over again FYI. But OK.

The term conservative doesn’t mean what you think it does.
It was the meanest thing I could think to say.  :91:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 14, 2020, 07:57:51 PM
obvious lack of vocabulary
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 14, 2020, 08:00:42 PM
I'm not going back to normal a good 2-4 weeks after most.  It's just frustrating knowing some are chomping at the bit and are thus guaranteeing another bump in cases when they resume normalcy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 14, 2020, 08:02:53 PM
my life isn't too far from normal today, going back to normal will mostly mean there is toilet paper on the shelves
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 14, 2020, 09:00:52 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 14, 2020, 08:00:42 PM
I'm not going back to normal a good 2-4 weeks after most.  It's just frustrating knowing some are chomping at the bit and are thus guaranteeing another bump in cases when they resume normalcy.
There was always going to be a bump in cases once society re-opened. There was always going to be a 2nd wave of infection no matter what we did. No way to truly beat this thing without a vaccine or new anti-viral drugs. And a vaccine isn't coming for at least a year, and who knows if an effective anti-viral drug ever will come through the pipeline. We can't keep everything shutdown for an entire year or more. That just isn't possible. If that happened, the global economic contraction of 3% that the IMF is currently predicting would probably look more like 10%. Something like that would be more devastating and catastrophic than the actual virus. I don't know if you remember how terrible the Great Recession was just 10+ years ago or so. Yeah, it was pretty freaking bad. The global economy shrank back then by just less than .1%. If we locked down for a year until there was a vaccine and global economic contraction hit anywhere near 10%- that'd be literally 100x worse than the Great Recession and you'd be talking about something that hasn't been seen since the Great Depression in which global economic contraction was around 16%.

Yeah, no thanks. I'd rather take my chances with this virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 14, 2020, 09:27:46 PM
NEW YORK (AP) — The official death toll from the coronavirus soared in New York City on Tuesday after health authorities began including people who probably had COVID-19, but died without ever being tested.

Officials reported 3,778 “probable” deaths, where doctors were certain enough of the cause of death to list it on the death certificate, and 6,589 confirmed by a lab test. Combined, that would put the total fatalities in the city over 10,000.

The change in the city’s accounting of deaths came after officials acknowledged that statistics based only on laboratory-confirmed tests were failing to account for many people dying at home before they reached a hospital or even sought treatment.


https://apnews.com/d495ce7e54e8b0744a30c08aea651c7a (https://apnews.com/d495ce7e54e8b0744a30c08aea651c7a)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 14, 2020, 10:00:13 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2020, 12:23:10 PM
Ok then.

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/u-s-diplomats-warned-about-safety-risks-in-wuhan-labs-studying-bats-two-years-before-coronavirus-outbreak/

Interesting.
I Found The Source of the Coronavirus - YouTube

 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=5&v=bpQFCcSI0pU&feature=emb_logo)posted by Mdot a while back
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 14, 2020, 10:17:18 PM
I can't stand Fox News, but I actually don't mind Tucker Carlson. Sometimes. He's one of the few people on cable news that will sometimes go on the air and tell the truth. This is a very interesting segment he did on the actual fatality rate of the virus. It's probably lower than 1%. Way lower.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6NjCitwKJSQ
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 14, 2020, 10:20:14 PM
Edward Snowden with a great interview on Vice about how governments will use this crisis to try and gain power and abuse those powers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5OAjnveyJo
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 14, 2020, 10:36:56 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 14, 2020, 10:17:18 PM
I can't stand Fox News, but I actually don't mind Tucker Carlson. Sometimes. He's one of the few people on cable news that will sometimes go on the air and tell the truth. This is a very interesting segment he did on the actual fatality rate of the virus. It's probably lower than 1%. Way lower.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6NjCitwKJSQ
In the first there minutes he did napkin math.

There has been so very much napkin math in this whole thing. (He's also kinda illustrating something we've already been vaguely aware of, or at least I was aware of the past few weeks)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 15, 2020, 12:09:13 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 14, 2020, 10:17:18 PM
I can't stand Fox News, but I actually don't mind Tucker Carlson. Sometimes. He's one of the few people on cable news that will sometimes go on the air and tell the truth. 
Good Segment,nice to hear that coming from a Stanford University Medical Professor
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 15, 2020, 12:18:42 AM
I think someone's in the closet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 12:30:28 AM
this is just shameful. Stimulus checks to families/people in need are going to be delayed by a few days just so they can add Trump's name to them. Like wtf? Why are they even sending physical checks out? How come they couldn't have done instant payments via direct deposit to bank accts, paypal, cashapp, square, zelle, etc., etc.. Even pre-loaded debit card would've been a better idea than a physical check.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trumps-name-on-stimulus-check-irs-coronavirus_n_5e965be0c5b6ead140045899?ncid=tweetlnkushpmg00000067
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 15, 2020, 12:40:03 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 14, 2020, 10:20:14 PM
Edward Snowden with a great interview on Vice about how governments will use this crisis to try and gain power and abuse those powers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5OAjnveyJo
That's what all governments do.  Everywhere in every time.
Governments expand during wars, by necessity, but then they seldom return to their prewar size and power.
They use domestic emergencies to expand too.  "Never let a good crisis go to waste."  The goal is always to expand.  Just like every bureaucracy within a government wants to expand.
It doesn't have to be malicious.  Usually it's not.  More often, those expanding the government sincerely believe that they are doing it for a good purpose.  And, of course, they have to have more power to do all the good things it will take to accomplish that purpose.
Look at how often politicians use the language of war to justify emergency measures to fight for all the good things they are trying to accomplish.  FDR waged war on unemployment, bankers, malefactors of great wealth, etc.  LBJ waged a war on poverty.  We wage war on inflation, war on drugs, war on student debt, war on income inequality, war on the unfairness of life.
Who dares to stand in the way when it's a war we're waging?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 15, 2020, 12:42:50 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 14, 2020, 10:17:18 PM
I can't stand Fox News, but I actually don't mind Tucker Carlson. Sometimes. He's one of the few people on cable news that will sometimes go on the air and tell the truth. This is a very interesting segment he did on the actual fatality rate of the virus. It's probably lower than 1%. Way lower.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6NjCitwKJSQ
I'm the other way.  20 years ago, I liked Tucker Carlson.
Now I think he's just a rabble-rousing populist.
But I repeat myself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 12:55:40 AM
airlines just got their first wave of bailout money available to them. $25 billion total. American Airlines is taking $5.8 billion.

First $100 million is a grant
Everything after $100mil- 70% doesn't need to be repaid, 30% has to be repaid at low-interest rates
No layoffs allowed before Sept. 30th
Treasury gets stock warrants equal to 3%

I'm not thrilled with the idea of the government bailing out airlines. At least they'll be getting 30% back with interest, can't lay people off, and they get the stock warrants. Airlines were looking for straight up grant, no repayments, no stock warrants.

One has to wonder if the major airlines would even need any bailouts right now had the morons running these companies not spent NINETY-SIX percent of their free cash flow on buybacks over the last 9 years. That's a true statement. 96% of their cash. On buying their own stock. Insane.

I'm kind of with this guy on this- who is a billionaire himself-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAt7Rg1u2l8
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 15, 2020, 01:12:20 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 12:30:28 AM
this is just shameful. Stimulus checks to families/people in need are going to be delayed by a few days just so they can add Trump's name to them. Like wtf? Why are they even sending physical checks out? How come they couldn't have done instant payments via direct deposit to bank accts, paypal, cashapp, square, zelle, etc., etc.. Even pre-loaded debit card would've been a better idea than a physical check.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trumps-name-on-stimulus-check-irs-coronavirus_n_5e965be0c5b6ead140045899?ncid=tweetlnkushpmg00000067
The paper checks are going to people who don't have direct deposit or bank accounts or any of that stuff.  You know, poor people.  So Trump delaying payments to the poorest people is par for the course.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 15, 2020, 01:18:41 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 12:55:40 AM
airlines just got their first wave of bailout money available to them. $25 billion total. American Airlines is taking $5.8 billion.

First $100 million is a grant
Everything after $100mil- 70% doesn't need to be repaid, 30% has to be repaid at low-interest rates
No layoffs allowed before Sept. 30th
Treasury gets stock warrants equal to 3%

I'm not thrilled with the idea of the government bailing out airlines. At least they'll be getting 30% back with interest, can't lay people off, and they get the stock warrants. Airlines were looking for straight up grant, no repayments, no stock warrants.

One has to wonder if the major airlines would even need any bailouts right now had the morons running these companies not spent NINETY-SIX percent of their free cash flow on buybacks over the last 9 years. That's a true statement. 96% of their cash. On buying their own stock. Insane.

I'm kind of with this guy on this- who is a billionaire himself-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAt7Rg1u2l8
Anytime the government is spending hundreds of billions, you can bet that the well-connected/big campaign donors are going to get their hands on a lot of it.  The only way to keep that from happening is for the government to not spend so much.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2020, 07:20:36 AM
A company these days has to be very careful about building up a large cash position for obvious reasons.  The alternatives are to spend on new equipment, which they have done, increase the dividend massively, buy back stock, or reduce debt.  Reducing debt when interest rates for them are probably 1-2% seems imprudent relative to buying back stock if they are paying a 3% dividend, for example.  If they all operate this way (and they did) they know they can rely on government to bail them out, huh.

A problem is that companies like banks and airlines are "too big to let fail" which is a flaw in a free market system (letting one fail would be tough but if they all go down it is pretty catastrophic).  The idea is to get them over this "brief" hump and return to normal, or so one hopes.  

Buying back stock is a good decision IFF your stock price goes up steadily over time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 15, 2020, 08:16:51 AM
I will say I am extremely proud of the employees at the bank I work at. 

Many people worked through the night to process/underwrite the PPP loans for hundreds of small businesses.  Everyone is trying to beat the money running out.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 15, 2020, 08:56:35 AM
small businesses get loans

big businesses get grants
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 15, 2020, 10:15:05 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 15, 2020, 07:20:36 AM
A company these days has to be very careful about building up a large cash position for obvious reasons.  The alternatives are to spend on new equipment, which they have done, increase the dividend massively, buy back stock, or reduce debt.  Reducing debt when interest rates for them are probably 1-2% seems imprudent relative to buying back stock if they are paying a 3% dividend, for example.  If they all operate this way (and they did) they know they can rely on government to bail them out, huh.

A problem is that companies like banks and airlines are "too big to let fail" which is a flaw in a free market system (letting one fail would be tough but if they all go down it is pretty catastrophic).  The idea is to get them over this "brief" hump and return to normal, or so one hopes. 

Buying back stock is a good decision IFF your stock price goes up steadily over time.
Why are they too big to let fail?
If they go bankrupt, then they reorganize their finances or they are liquidated.  Either way, their assets don't just disappear.
Bailing out bad or imprudent actors encourages more of the same actions.  Increases the chances of having to make more bailouts in the future.
Encourages populist demagoguery (but I repeat myself) too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 10:27:19 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 15, 2020, 10:15:05 AM
Why are they too big to let fail?
If they go bankrupt, then they reorganize their finances or they are liquidated.  Either way, their assets don't just disappear.
Bailing out bad or imprudent actors encourages more of the same actions.  Increases the chances of having to make more bailouts in the future.
Encourages populist demagoguery (but I repeat myself) too.
Yup. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2020, 10:30:52 AM
If they fail en masse, the ripples effect would be enormous through the economy.  Yes, others might pick up the pieces down the road, but it would take time, and those others might not know how to run an airline or have the right pieces to do so.

The System can manage ONE airline going under, but not all of them at the same time.  You'd have GE going under and probably Boeing as a result coupled with massive unemployment at the same time which would ripple to other businesses.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 15, 2020, 10:43:21 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 15, 2020, 10:15:05 AM
Why are they too big to let fail?
I agree,during the 2008 financial crisis AIG(Gov't Insurance) fell under this they ran their company into the ground.And they were rewarded by the Feds with money from you and I.In any semblance of a a decent/honorable society they would have been allowed to fail and probably face jail time.What happened next shredded any illusions of justice.Turns out the BBC secretlyfollowed the President,CEO and the rest of the den of Thieves over to a Swiis/Austrian Ski resort where they proceeded to practice social distancing and jubilantly punished themselves.We're not in Kansas anymore-sadly and down the line there will be repercussions
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 15, 2020, 10:54:42 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 15, 2020, 08:56:35 AM
small businesses get loans

big businesses get grants
I recall a Black Guy on TV one time saying - if I get Gov't money it's welfare.If the suits get it's a subsidy
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 11:14:07 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 15, 2020, 10:30:52 AM
If they fail en masse, the ripples effect would be enormous through the economy.  Yes, others might pick up the pieces down the road, but it would take time, and those others might not know how to run an airline or have the right pieces to do so.

The System can manage ONE airline going under, but not all of them at the same time.  You'd have GE going under and probably Boeing as a result coupled with massive unemployment at the same time which would ripple to other businesses.
Yeah, I don’t buy this argument. Last go round, the banks actually had to be bailed out. Banks are too intertwined and integral to the system to just let go under. It would’ve been pandemonium- run on the banks, massive credit freezes- it could’ve been disasterous.

Airlines, cruise ships, GE, and Boeing are not.

And The one airline that is really in serious trouble is American, and that’s because it’s executive team loaded up on debt and exhausted literally all of it’s cash on stock repurchases. Why? Because they thought the good times were always going to be and the interest on the debt was cheap- the idiot CEO said so himself in a letter he released to shareholders- and because he and his executive teams compensation is tied to the stock. Pump the stock price up- and him and his executive teams compensation goes way up. You can’t have executives compensation tied to stock price- it flat out encourages them across the board to sell out tomorrow for today in order for executive class to make more $ today. Executive compensation for publicly traded companies should always be tied to the bottom line. Period.

GE and Boeing were already on the brink of going under before this due to horrible executive teams running those companies into the ground. Boeing is a joke. They booked $400 billion in sales on a plane that doesn’t work and isn’t safe. GE & Boeing & American Airlines can go through packaged bankruptcies and private companies, other public companies, and private equity groups that are run properly with great executive teams and that are flush with cash- would buy up those companies and assets. 

They can call Warren Buffett and get a loan. He’s got $130 billion in cash. They don’t need tax payers to give them a handout. Look at what happened the last go round. 5.1 million families kicked out of their homes. Who bailed those people out? No one. And that number could be WAY worse this time around. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2020, 11:16:54 AM
I'm not sure many folks would be interested in buying up assets of a bankrupt airline or jet engine maker at this point.  Down the road, yes, but in the interim ...

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 15, 2020, 11:26:42 AM
F 'em all

any business, bank or otherwise that fails, should be allowed to fail.

most times it's a result of poor decisions, those should not be rewarded

and when I say all of them I mean it.  That also goes for farmers in my area.  The Farm aid crisis in the 80's was rough, but my friends and neighbors made some poor decisions along with their bankers.

handouts from the American taxpayer need to stop

but, obviously I'm not an expert in this area
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 15, 2020, 11:42:06 AM
You don't need to be an expert to make an honest/accurate observation........specially during CFB season
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 15, 2020, 11:44:25 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 15, 2020, 11:26:42 AM
F 'em all

any business, bank or otherwise that fails, should be allowed to fail.

most times it's a result of poor decisions, those should not be rewarded

and when I say all of them I mean it.  That also goes for farmers in my area.  The Farm aid crisis in the 80's was rough, but my friends and neighbors made some poor decisions along with their bankers.

handouts from the American taxpayer need to stop

but, obviously I'm not an expert in this area
I mean, are you referring specifically to what's happening RIGHT NOW? 

Seems a little harsh to judge a business as a failure, when the government has forcibly shut it down, don't you think?


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 15, 2020, 11:44:37 AM
Intervening to stop a financial free fall is a good idea because lots of blameless people pay the price for that free fall and the chaos that comes with it isn't justifiable when our government is capable of stopping it. How the clean-up is managed says more about what we value and the righteousness of the cause.

The grants/loans is a bit of a false dichotomy. As I understand it, many of the small business "loans" don't have to be repaid; grants by another name.

A financial crisis like this one isn't the "fault" of the "business community," nor those they employ, nor those who profit from/support them, e.g., the myriad smaller businesses that they and their employees rely on or buy from.

We do not live in a simple, barter economy. We live in an interconnected and complex economy. The idea that the "free market" will solve all ills isn't fundamentally wrong, but it misunderstands how the free market solves those ills.

The guillotine was the free market at work in France. Communism was the free market at work in czarist Russia. The Nazis were the free market at work in Germany. Slavery was the free market at work in the colonies and United States. Those are versions of the free market I would prefer to avoid, if possible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 11:45:29 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 15, 2020, 11:16:54 AM
I'm not sure many folks would be interested in buying up assets of a bankrupt airline or jet engine maker at this point.  Down the road, yes, but in the interim ...
Are you kidding me? Private equity and people like Buffett are probably chomping at the bit. When the hell else could they buy up primo assets like that for pennies on the dollar? 

Buffett’s famous line- “Be scared when people are greedy, and be greedy when people are scared.”

Berkshire’s got $130 billion in cash. These companies should go to Buffett first and ask for a loan in exchange for repayment with low interest plus stock warrants like BoA did in the last corporate bailout frenzy before they go to Uncle Sam. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 11:51:59 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 15, 2020, 11:44:25 AM
I mean, are you referring specifically to what's happening RIGHT NOW?

Seems a little harsh to judge a business as a failure, when the government has forcibly shut it down, don't you think?
I agree with your last part. 

But Boeing, GE, and American were in major trouble before any of this happened. Especially GE & Boeing. I’m afraid they’ll be using this as an excuse to get a bailout- when they might’ve needed it regardless of this happening. 

And as far as the airlines go, over the last 9 years the 5 largest airlines combined exhausted 96% of their free cash flow on stock repurchases. That is just terrible management. And why did those executive teams do that? They did it for one reason and one reason only- to pump the stock price up to juice their own compensation up. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2020, 12:09:05 PM
The immediate impact to our economy would be devastating.  That is what folks would like to avoid.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 15, 2020, 12:22:52 PM
So, coronavirus?

Lots of government policy being discussed here. I think there might be a spot for that around here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 12:30:59 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 15, 2020, 12:09:05 PM
The immediate impact to our economy would be devastating.  That is what folks would like to avoid.
Not really. It would really only be devastating to the overpaid executive teams whose compensation is directly tied to share price- and to shareholders- which in large part are owned by hedge funds, private equity, and billionaires. 

Take American for example. The top 10 owners combined own 57% of all shares. All those 10 are all hedge funds, private equity, and multi-billion dollar holding companies. These are not “little” people. These are rich people. So basically any kind of bailout would be Uncle Sam propping them up to bail out the paper assets of rich people. The workers at American wouldn’t get fired, it’d go through a packaged bankruptcy, debt would get restructured, the company and it’s assets would be re-organized/sold and for the most part workers would get to keep their pensions and jobs. 

Again, I refer you to this video: 

https://youtu.be/qAt7Rg1u2l8
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2020, 12:35:52 PM
The employees wouldn't notice being unemployed?

I think it would be devastating.  I'm sure others think otherwise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 15, 2020, 12:46:40 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 15, 2020, 11:44:25 AM
I mean, are you referring specifically to what's happening RIGHT NOW?

Seems a little harsh to judge a business as a failure, when the government has forcibly shut it down, don't you think?



it is a little harsh
I'm just not in favor of taxpayer money going to "save" companies that are poorly managed

allow the unhealthy cruise lines, hotel chains and airlines to fail
don't bail them ALL out
same with small businesses, even local restaurants.

If they can't survive 4-6 weeks of interrupted business, maybe they weren't in good shape in the first place.  Can they open a drive-thru or carry out service and find a way during rough times?

do they have money set aside for rainy days or tough times?

I know some businesses in this area that are using this as an excuse to close shop.  They were failing in January 1st, but trying to hang on.

IMO, we have WAY too many banks and credit unions these days - obviously it's an easy profitable business  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2020, 12:54:12 PM
Restaurants nearly always are on the edge, all of them, other than major national chains.

Large companies don't want to retain a large cash position for obvious reasons.

I've been in the restaurant business (to a slight degree) and it's rough.  My guess is around here we'll lose at least half our restaurants, probably more.  The workers are taking the brunt of it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 15, 2020, 01:01:42 PM
Sure.  I grew up in the restaurant business, my family owned one for ten years.  It's definitely rough.

And it's a lot rougher when the government makes your business illegal.

So again, seems pretty harsh to judge ALL businesses for failing, when the government forced you to fail.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 15, 2020, 01:03:05 PM
Just for the record, my thoughts about bailing out the businesses that are "too big to let fail" were in the context of the 2008 "crisis," not this one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 15, 2020, 01:04:18 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 15, 2020, 12:46:40 PM
it is a little harsh
I'm just not in favor of taxpayer money going to "save" companies that are poorly managed

allow the unhealthy cruise lines, hotel chains and airlines to fail
don't bail them ALL out
same with small businesses, even local restaurants.

If they can't survive 4-6 weeks of interrupted business, maybe they weren't in good shape in the first place.  Can they open a drive-thru or carry out service and find a way during rough times?

do they have money set aside for rainy days or tough times?

I know some businesses in this area that are using this as an excuse to close shop.  They were failing in January 1st, but trying to hang on.

IMO, we have WAY too many banks and credit unions these days - obviously it's an easy profitable business 

If dive-thru or carry-out were viable business models for ALL restaurants, don't you think ALL restaurants would already be doing that?

It's not, and they aren't. 

Anyway, I certainly agree with CD.  I expect to see at least half of restaurants in my area fail and not reopen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 15, 2020, 01:11:33 PM
Our local wine bar is struggling. We've been trying to give them as much business as we can (buying bottles and charcuterie carry out since we can't go in there and drink). They have a wine club (2 bottles from various wineries curated by them, 3 times a year), and when my wife was in there last Friday she chatted with one of the owners who said that they might not have been able to survive long without the wine club profits as our most recent shipment was just made available. 

I could do without most of our local restaurants, but if the wine club closes, we'll be extremely sad. That was where I proposed. That was where we were legally married. It's been a big part of our romantic lives ever since we met. 

So I'm trying to do what I can to increase my business there, even beyond what we normally would do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2020, 01:14:15 PM
The higher end restaurants can't manage with carry out, at all.  Their dishes don't make sense to package up to take home, to me.  And, they are losing HUGELY on alcohol sales.  The ones in between are trying, but largely not doing anything like the business they were.  The low end places are doing pretty well, as is Kroger et al.

It's a brutal business always running close to the edge.  I know the change in tax write offs was the death nell of the place I had a one percent share in.  It took a few years but the writing was on the wall.  It's one thing to have some couples come and spend say $75 for a meal and quite another to have a business group come and drop several thousand on an expense account.

We're getting take out  more often from next door and the other place, but I am used to cooking dinner.  We would dine out maybe twice a week.  I noticed even for lunch I was often dropping $40-50.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2020, 01:15:22 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 15, 2020, 01:11:33 PM
I could do without most of our local restaurants, but if the wine club closes, we'll be extremely sad. That was where I proposed. That was where we were legally married. It's been a big part of our romantic lives ever since we met.

So I'm trying to do what I can to increase my business there, even beyond what we normally would do.
Heh, I proposed to my wife in our wine bar also, on April 1 of all days.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 01:22:15 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 15, 2020, 12:54:12 PM
Large companies don't want to retain a large cash position for obvious reasons.
You keep saying this, but it's not true.

In fact, the greatest, most well run large companies in the entire world that everyone is dying to invest in are the ones with huge cash positions. For obvious reasons.

See: Apple, Amazon, Google, Berkshire, Facebook, Microsoft, Oracle, and Cisco. Just blue-chip, incredible companies. All far larger than any of the airlines. And all of them have 40-100+ billion in cash on hand. And most of them pay no dividends and the ones that do pay very small dividends.

They use said cash to reinvest in their businesses, acquire other businesses, and to have cash on hand in case of a rainy day. Like today. The tech companies are notorious for keeping cash on hand in order to weather downturns and take advantage of market slumps (like this one) to pick up assets on the cheap. You will see them buy up a shitload of companies and not have to take a single dollar from the US government. Why? Because they are run by smart nerds in Silicon Valley, not dumbasses on Wallstreet whose only goal is to juice up stock price at any cost in order to make themselves more money. American's CEO's compensation was 100% tied to stock. If anyone doesn't think for one second his only goal in running that company was to juice the share price up as high as possible in order for him to make as much money as possible for himself- well that person is a fool. Wallstreet sacrifices the future for today. It's designed to.

Part of the reason why those aforementioned companies are some the greatest companies in the entire world that EVERYONE wants to invest in- is because they continually reinvest in growth. They don't throw good money away for bad like the dumb airlines did with their irresponsible extreme stock repurchasing scheme. 96% of free cash flow. GONE. On their own stock. Didn't set aside anything for a rainy day. Didn't reinvest in the business to fuel growth. Bought their own stock. Now they are in the shit with no cash and hand and no cash flow coming in- and they want Uncle Sam to do something about it. F 'em
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 15, 2020, 01:28:17 PM
50% of our nations people are employed in what is considered a small business.  Many of them are operating profitably- but are not the type of business that can easily survive this level of disruption.  And remember- they had nothing to do with the root cause.  

These are often people who took chances and had courage to even start the business. That often idolized American dream- to control your own destiny, to get out commensurate to the level you put in, to not be at the mercy of management or execs in large corporate environments- where you can perform extremely well and consistently yet still not be rewarded or even keep your job.  
And make no mistake- this includes businesses of all kinds. Heating and cooling, small manufacturing, pest control, landscaping, food supply, restaurant supply, printing, advertising, digital, Marina....the list is endless. 

If, and I emphasize that word- a little help from Uncle Sam ( which is all of us) can sustain some of these entrepreneurs and their teams, I feel strongly we should try.  

If there is some level of success, it will result in uncounted additional benefits to all of us that we have not even talked about or thought about. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2020, 01:31:08 PM
Ultra large companies can sit on large cash positions, yes, in part because they are ultra large and have enormous market caps.

Large companies sitting on large cash positions often find themselves being taken over using their own cash against them.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/25/american-airlines-waste-cash-flow-share-buybacks.aspx (https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/25/american-airlines-waste-cash-flow-share-buybacks.aspx)

The company I worked for was a large company, but not ultra large, and they did stock buy backs to limit how much cash we had sitting around.  Some of this was because we could borrow at say 1.5% and were paying a 3% dividend.  And some was to make it more difficult for any takeover to happen.

Obviously, cash spent on buy backs didn't disappear unless the stock price collapses.

And of course Apple is famous for huge stuck buy backs.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-buyback-dividend-earnings-multiple-yield-51578342838 (https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-buyback-dividend-earnings-multiple-yield-51578342838)

It may be time for Apple  (https://www.barrons.com/quote/AAPL)to boost its dividend and scale back its mammoth stock-repurchase program.

The company has favored its buyback program in recent years, but Apple shares are no longer a bargain after doubling in the past year  (https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-got-downgraded-because-it-rose-too-much-last-year-51578337583?mod=hp_LATEST&mod=article_inline).

During its latest fiscal year that ended in September, Apple bought back $67 billion in stock and paid out $14 billion in dividends. The shares, which rose $2.37, or 0.8%, to $299.80 on Monday, trade just below the record high of $300 set on Jan. 2.
Apple now trades for almost 23 times projected earnings of $13.10 a share in its current fiscal year, considerably above its average forward price-to-earnings ratio of 14 in the past five years. Its shares now yield 1%.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2020, 01:46:39 PM
Deaths today so far:

1502 US
752  NY
351  NJ

I was hoping of course for lower numbers,  yesterday was bad. 2407 total.

Some of this could be from classifying more deaths as COVID with comorbidities.  Getting reliable information is not easy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 15, 2020, 01:47:13 PM
Very high number of deaths announced today in the US, but the number of cases seems to be dropping now. Thank goodness.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 15, 2020, 02:01:36 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 15, 2020, 12:54:12 PM
Restaurants nearly always are on the edge, all of them, other than major national chains.

is there a good reason for this?

otherwise, it's just bad business
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 15, 2020, 02:06:30 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 15, 2020, 02:01:36 PM
is there a good reason for this?

otherwise, it's just bad business
Having over 20 years in the restaurant industry its my feeling thats its not a bad business but a business that

has a profit margin much lower then other businesses 

It doesnt take much to go from a profit to a loss
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 15, 2020, 02:11:00 PM
when I was married, there wasn't much of a profit margin in my budget

it would have been foolish of me to not save something each month to ward against the rainy day

if your business only makes a little money, then only save a little

if your business doesn't make money, change it or get out of business

I've heard countless people tell me that they don't make enough money to save anything.  No savings account, no retirement savings, no xmas savings account.  They live under the thumb of the banker or credit card company

foolish at best
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 15, 2020, 02:15:30 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 15, 2020, 01:14:15 PM
The higher end restaurants can't manage with carry out, at all.  Their dishes don't make sense to package up to take home, to me.  And, they are losing HUGELY on alcohol sales.  The ones in between are trying, but largely not doing anything like the business they were.  The low end places are doing pretty well, as is Kroger et al.

It's a brutal business always running close to the edge.  I know the change in tax write offs was the death nell of the place I had a one percent share in.  It took a few years but the writing was on the wall.  It's one thing to have some couples come and spend say $75 for a meal and quite another to have a business group come and drop several thousand on an expense account.

We're getting take out  more often from next door and the other place, but I am used to cooking dinner.  We would dine out maybe twice a week.  I noticed even for lunch I was often dropping $40-50.
What are your thoughts about that change?  I think I come down on the side of taxpayers not being forced to subsidize restaurants through the tax code, but I can see the other side of the argument too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 15, 2020, 02:18:49 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 15, 2020, 02:11:00 PM
when I was married, there wasn't much of a profit margin in my budget

it would have been foolish of me to not save something each month to ward against the rainy day
A lady I volunteer with over at the food bank lives pretty much check to check - in retirement.But she worked at one of the local FORD Plants(31 yrs) - all the hours and overtime they wanted.Yet she rents an apartment - it's inconcievable to me that she hasn't got a pot to piss in.I've never discussed this with her as it's NOMB.Many/most don't pull in that coin but she somehow wizzed most of it away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 15, 2020, 02:19:51 PM
I know you weren't asking me, but....

I almost ALWAYS come down on the side of taxpayers not being forced to subsidize anything.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 02:26:46 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 15, 2020, 01:28:17 PM
50% of our nations people are employed in what is considered a small business.  Many of them are operating profitably- but are not the type of business that can easily survive this level of disruption.  And remember- they had nothing to do with the root cause. 

These are often people who took chances and had courage to even start the business. That often idolized American dream- to control your own destiny, to get out commensurate to the level you put in, to not be at the mercy of management or execs in large corporate environments- where you can perform extremely well and consistently yet still not be rewarded or even keep your job. 
And make no mistake- this includes businesses of all kinds. Heating and cooling, small manufacturing, pest control, landscaping, food supply, restaurant supply, printing, advertising, digital, Marina....the list is endless.

If, and I emphasize that word- a little help from Uncle Sam ( which is all of us) can sustain some of these entrepreneurs and their teams, I feel strongly we should try. 

If there is some level of success, it will result in uncounted additional benefits to all of us that we have not even talked about or thought about.
This is my biggest gripe with that $2.2 trillion rescue bill. Really more like $6+ trillion. It's not doing enough for the small businesses. And it's doing nearly nothing for the average Joe. It's designed to help the richest people in this country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 15, 2020, 02:30:20 PM
It's my thought that many small business owners are good at what they do and have a passion for it.

Baking, brewing beer, cooking/BBQing and serving meals, pouring drinks and serving beer, repairing cars or cell phones, whatever

what many of them are NOT good at is accounting or running a business.  Many times it's a chore or something to put off or not invest time in.  Also, sometimes these fine folks are NOT good at taking advice from people that have this knowledge or skill.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 02:43:55 PM
https://www.profgalloway.com/capitalists-or-cronyists

A pillar of capitalism is you can’t reward the winners without punishing the losers. I worry our government has been co-opted by the wealthy and is focused on protecting the previous generation of winners, even if it means reducing future generations’ ability to win. Aren’t we borrowing against our children’s prosperity to protect the wealth of the top 10, if not 1, percent?

(https://api.profgalloway.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/NM_Share-of-US-Aggregate.png)

Modern-day “capitalism” in America is to flatten the risk curve for people who already have money, by borrowing from future generations with debt-fueled bailouts for companies. We have consciously decided to reduce the downside for the wealthy, thereby limiting the upside for future generations.

CNBC guest: Equity holders deserve to get wiped out.
CNBC host: Why does anybody deserve to get wiped out in a crisis like this? This is a natural disaster, why does anybody deserve to get wiped out? Wouldn’t that be immoral in and of itself?

“Immoral,” here we go. Morality for CNBC, and the current administration, is not capitalism but the worst type of socialism, cronyism. Rugged individualism and capitalism on the way up, privatizing the gains — and then socialism/cronyism on the way down as we socialize the losses with bailouts.


In 1999, the firm I co-founded, Red Envelope, was drafting an S-1 in anticipation of an IPO. At 31, I stood to register $30-60 million on the IPO. The bursting of the bubble damaged us, but the injuries weren’t fatal, and we were the only retail IPO of 2002. In 2008, a longshoreman strike left all our holiday merchandise hostage on a cargo ship 8 miles off the shores of the port of Long Beach. Then, as the credit crisis began to take hold, a prescient analyst at Wells Fargo decided to pull our credit facility. Within 90 days we were Chapter 11. That event, combined with divorce, reduced my net worth 97%.

I didn’t deserve to lose near-everything. What happened wasn’t my fault — ok, maybe the divorce. Regardless, was this fair or (im)moral? Just as there’s no crying in baseball, there’s no fairness in shareholder accretion or destruction. Looking at jets at 31 wasn’t moral or fair either. So, what happened? Exactly what’s supposed to happen in a market economy — downside registered against commensurate upside.

Red Envelope went through something also uniquely American … and productive — bankruptcy. The equity holders (e.g., yours truly) were wiped out (#bummer). However, we did our duty as board members and found a buyer, Liberty Media, who paid our vendors and kept the employees. No job loss, all debtors paid. When a 31-year-old is shopping for jets in November, part of the agreement with the invisible hand is he may lose most/all of it by March. There’s a word for that … capitalism.

The capital structure of private firms is meant to balance upside and downside. CNBC/Trump want to protect current equity holders at the expense of future generations with rescue packages that explode the deficit. They also want to protect airlines, who spent $45 billion (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/06/bailout-coronavirus-airlines/) on buybacks and now want a $54 billion (https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/okay-airlines-here-are-your-bailout-terms/articleshow/74676601.cms) bailout, disincentivizing other firms (e.g., Berkshire Hathaway) that have built huge cash piles foregoing current returns.

The rescue package should protect people, not businesses. From 2017 to 2019, the CEOs of Delta, American, United, and Carnival Cruises earned over $150 million in compensation. But, now … “We’re in this together” (i.e., “bail our asses out”).


And what happens if they (gasp!), go out of business? Simple, the equity holders, and unsecured debt holders, get wiped out. These are the cohorts who, despite the recent meltdown, have registered a 3.3x increase in the Dow since the lows of 2008.

As long as they keep making old people, and younger people want to take their kids to Disney’s Galaxy’s Edge, there will be cruise lines and airlines. Since 2000, US airlines have declared bankruptcy 66 (https://www.airlines.org/dataset/u-s-bankruptcies-and-services-cessations/) times. Despite the obvious vulnerability of the sector, boards/CEOs of the six largest airlines have spent 96% (https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/airline-bailout-coronavirus-share-buyback-debate-trump-economy-aoc-2020-3-1029006175) of their free cash flow on share buybacks, bolstering the share price and compensation of management … who now want a bailout. They should be allowed to fail. Bondholders will own the firms. Ships and planes will continue to float and fly, and there will still be a steel tube with recirculated air waiting for you post molestation by Roy from TSA.

The Lie

Trump/CNBC have adopted a narrative that this is about protecting the most vulnerable. No, it’s about buttressing the most wealthy. Pandemics typically result in higher wages over the next several decades as we recognize that essential workers (the gal/guy delivering your Greek yogurt and placing your Indian food in the backseat of your car) should be paid more. A good thing.

Letting firms fail, and share prices fall to their market level, also provides younger generations with the same opportunities we, Gen X and boomers, were given: a chance to buy Amazon at 50x (vs. 100x) earnings and Brooklyn real estate at $300 (https://www.brownstoner.com/real-estate-market/brooklyn-real-estate-home-prices-history-timeline/) (vs. $1,000) per sq. ft. Just as we pretend our service men and women are heroes, and then treat them like chumps, CNBC advertisers and Peter Navarro want to pretend they give a sh*t about younger generations so they can protect the wealth of old people and management/advertisers. Enough already.

Earlier this week, I was on MSNBC (https://twitter.com/profgalloway/status/1247973529993334787) with an early Uber employee, who reminded us, “We’re all in this together.” What bullsh*t. My guess is this executive registered $10-100 million in equity crafting software that figured out an elegant way to pay their 3.9 million (https://www.uber.com/en-GB/newsroom/company-info/) “driver partners” less than minimum wage, ensure Uber isn’t obligated to provide them with health insurance, and avoid paying payroll taxes to adequately fund the CDC. But Dara Khosrowshahi and his several-hundred-strong comms department wrote a compelling letter to the government urging them to help his driver partners.

Dara, pay your “partners” before picking up the pen again.


(https://api.profgalloway.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/NM_Response-of-Real-Wages.png)


Walking the Walk — PPP

We recently founded Prof G (https://www.section4.com/), a firm attempting to disrupt graduate business education. We offer online business/strategy sprints that aim to provide 30-50% of my classes at NYU Stern for 7% of the price. We are eligible for some of the $350 billion federal PPP program. With a modest amount of paperwork, in 7 days or less, we’d receive a loan for approximately $250,000. If we don’t lay off any employees, most of the loan would likely be forgiven. This is meaningful cabbage for us.

We are not going to apply for the program.

Our backers are wealthy, and if we can’t make this work — pandemic or not — then we don’t deserve to be in business. Yeah, our demise wouldn’t be our fault, nor is most success. Like steroids for the body, the moral hazard of government assistance only leaves the economy less healthy in the long run.

Just as death is a key part of life, so is the demise and reinvention of firms that can’t endure tropes. Covid-19 is no more historic than an 11-year bull market. With dangerous disregard for future generations we’ve decided that hundreds of thousands of people dying is meaningful, but the NASDAQ going down would be worse. The rescue package is $2.2 trillion (https://www.npr.org/2020/03/27/822062909/house-aims-to-send-2-trillion-rescue-package-to-president-to-stem-coronavirus-cr). The annual CDC budget — $6.6 billion (https://www.cdc.gov/budget/documents/fy2020/cdc-overview-factsheet.pdf).

We. Have. Lost. The. Script.

To be clear, socialism may be a better way to go, as evidenced by the study showing 4 of the 5 (https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/3/22/1844139/-Democratic-Socialist-Countries-Rank-Highly-in-Happiness-US-Drops-Again) happiest nations are socialist democracies. However, unless we’re going to provide universal healthcare and universal pre-K, let’s not embrace The Hunger Games for the working class on the way up, and the Hallmark Channel for the shareholder class on the way down. The current administration, the wealthy, and the media have embraced policies that bless the caching of power and wealth, creating a nation of brittle companies and government agencies.

The terrible thing about crises is they always happen. The wonderful thing is they always end. As we fight to bring this crisis to an end, let’s re-embrace capitalism and foster a future generation of leaders and firms that are soldiers, not hoarders. Yes, America is a terrible place to be stupid. It will be a worse place if we replace capitalism with cronyism.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 15, 2020, 03:05:12 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 15, 2020, 02:19:51 PM
I know you weren't asking me, but....

I almost ALWAYS come down on the side of taxpayers not being forced to subsidize anything.
That's certainly my default position.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 15, 2020, 03:06:57 PM
I'd agree as well.

What I don't agree with, is that the government helping out businesses that it is responsible for destroying, is a "subsidy."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 15, 2020, 03:20:02 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 02:43:55 PM
https://www.profgalloway.com/capitalists-or-cronyists

A pillar of capitalism is you can’t reward the winners without punishing the losers. I worry our government has been co-opted by the wealthy and is focused on protecting the previous generation of winners, even if it means reducing future generations’ ability to win. Aren’t we borrowing against our children’s prosperity to protect the wealth of the top 10, if not 1, percent?

[img width=500 height=323.963]https://api.profgalloway.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/NM_Share-of-US-Aggregate.png[/img]

Modern-day “capitalism” in America is to flatten the risk curve for people who already have money, by borrowing from future generations with debt-fueled bailouts for companies. We have consciously decided to reduce the downside for the wealthy, thereby limiting the upside for future generations.

CNBC guest: Equity holders deserve to get wiped out.
CNBC host: Why does anybody deserve to get wiped out in a crisis like this? This is a natural disaster, why does anybody deserve to get wiped out? Wouldn’t that be immoral in and of itself?

“Immoral,” here we go. Morality for CNBC, and the current administration, is not capitalism but the worst type of socialism, cronyism. Rugged individualism and capitalism on the way up, privatizing the gains — and then socialism/cronyism on the way down as we socialize the losses with bailouts.


In 1999, the firm I co-founded, Red Envelope, was drafting an S-1 in anticipation of an IPO. At 31, I stood to register $30-60 million on the IPO. The bursting of the bubble damaged us, but the injuries weren’t fatal, and we were the only retail IPO of 2002. In 2008, a longshoreman strike left all our holiday merchandise hostage on a cargo ship 8 miles off the shores of the port of Long Beach. Then, as the credit crisis began to take hold, a prescient analyst at Wells Fargo decided to pull our credit facility. Within 90 days we were Chapter 11. That event, combined with divorce, reduced my net worth 97%.

I didn’t deserve to lose near-everything. What happened wasn’t my fault — ok, maybe the divorce. Regardless, was this fair or (im)moral? Just as there’s no crying in baseball, there’s no fairness in shareholder accretion or destruction. Looking at jets at 31 wasn’t moral or fair either. So, what happened? Exactly what’s supposed to happen in a market economy — downside registered against commensurate upside.

Red Envelope went through something also uniquely American … and productive — bankruptcy. The equity holders (e.g., yours truly) were wiped out (#bummer). However, we did our duty as board members and found a buyer, Liberty Media, who paid our vendors and kept the employees. No job loss, all debtors paid. When a 31-year-old is shopping for jets in November, part of the agreement with the invisible hand is he may lose most/all of it by March. There’s a word for that … capitalism.

The capital structure of private firms is meant to balance upside and downside. CNBC/Trump want to protect current equity holders at the expense of future generations with rescue packages that explode the deficit. They also want to protect airlines, who spent $45 billion (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/06/bailout-coronavirus-airlines/) on buybacks and now want a $54 billion (https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/okay-airlines-here-are-your-bailout-terms/articleshow/74676601.cms) bailout, disincentivizing other firms (e.g., Berkshire Hathaway) that have built huge cash piles foregoing current returns.

The rescue package should protect people, not businesses. From 2017 to 2019, the CEOs of Delta, American, United, and Carnival Cruises earned over $150 million in compensation. But, now … “We’re in this together” (i.e., “bail our asses out”).


And what happens if they (gasp!), go out of business? Simple, the equity holders, and unsecured debt holders, get wiped out. These are the cohorts who, despite the recent meltdown, have registered a 3.3x increase in the Dow since the lows of 2008.

As long as they keep making old people, and younger people want to take their kids to Disney’s Galaxy’s Edge, there will be cruise lines and airlines. Since 2000, US airlines have declared bankruptcy 66 (https://www.airlines.org/dataset/u-s-bankruptcies-and-services-cessations/) times. Despite the obvious vulnerability of the sector, boards/CEOs of the six largest airlines have spent 96% (https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/airline-bailout-coronavirus-share-buyback-debate-trump-economy-aoc-2020-3-1029006175) of their free cash flow on share buybacks, bolstering the share price and compensation of management … who now want a bailout. They should be allowed to fail. Bondholders will own the firms. Ships and planes will continue to float and fly, and there will still be a steel tube with recirculated air waiting for you post molestation by Roy from TSA.

The Lie

Trump/CNBC have adopted a narrative that this is about protecting the most vulnerable. No, it’s about buttressing the most wealthy. Pandemics typically result in higher wages over the next several decades as we recognize that essential workers (the gal/guy delivering your Greek yogurt and placing your Indian food in the backseat of your car) should be paid more. A good thing.

Letting firms fail, and share prices fall to their market level, also provides younger generations with the same opportunities we, Gen X and boomers, were given: a chance to buy Amazon at 50x (vs. 100x) earnings and Brooklyn real estate at $300 (https://www.brownstoner.com/real-estate-market/brooklyn-real-estate-home-prices-history-timeline/) (vs. $1,000) per sq. ft. Just as we pretend our service men and women are heroes, and then treat them like chumps, CNBC advertisers and Peter Navarro want to pretend they give a sh*t about younger generations so they can protect the wealth of old people and management/advertisers. Enough already.

Earlier this week, I was on MSNBC (https://twitter.com/profgalloway/status/1247973529993334787) with an early Uber employee, who reminded us, “We’re all in this together.” What bullsh*t. My guess is this executive registered $10-100 million in equity crafting software that figured out an elegant way to pay their 3.9 million (https://www.uber.com/en-GB/newsroom/company-info/) “driver partners” less than minimum wage, ensure Uber isn’t obligated to provide them with health insurance, and avoid paying payroll taxes to adequately fund the CDC. But Dara Khosrowshahi and his several-hundred-strong comms department wrote a compelling letter to the government urging them to help his driver partners.

Dara, pay your “partners” before picking up the pen again.


(https://api.profgalloway.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/NM_Response-of-Real-Wages.png)


Walking the Walk — PPP

We recently founded Prof G (https://www.section4.com/), a firm attempting to disrupt graduate business education. We offer online business/strategy sprints that aim to provide 30-50% of my classes at NYU Stern for 7% of the price. We are eligible for some of the $350 billion federal PPP program. With a modest amount of paperwork, in 7 days or less, we’d receive a loan for approximately $250,000. If we don’t lay off any employees, most of the loan would likely be forgiven. This is meaningful cabbage for us.

We are not going to apply for the program.

Our backers are wealthy, and if we can’t make this work — pandemic or not — then we don’t deserve to be in business. Yeah, our demise wouldn’t be our fault, nor is most success. Like steroids for the body, the moral hazard of government assistance only leaves the economy less healthy in the long run.

Just as death is a key part of life, so is the demise and reinvention of firms that can’t endure tropes. Covid-19 is no more historic than an 11-year bull market. With dangerous disregard for future generations we’ve decided that hundreds of thousands of people dying is meaningful, but the NASDAQ going down would be worse. The rescue package is $2.2 trillion (https://www.npr.org/2020/03/27/822062909/house-aims-to-send-2-trillion-rescue-package-to-president-to-stem-coronavirus-cr). The annual CDC budget — $6.6 billion (https://www.cdc.gov/budget/documents/fy2020/cdc-overview-factsheet.pdf).

We. Have. Lost. The. Script.

To be clear, socialism may be a better way to go, as evidenced by the study showing 4 of the 5 (https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/3/22/1844139/-Democratic-Socialist-Countries-Rank-Highly-in-Happiness-US-Drops-Again) happiest nations are socialist democracies. However, unless we’re going to provide universal healthcare and universal pre-K, let’s not embrace The Hunger Games for the working class on the way up, and the Hallmark Channel for the shareholder class on the way down. The current administration, the wealthy, and the media have embraced policies that bless the caching of power and wealth, creating a nation of brittle companies and government agencies.

The terrible thing about crises is they always happen. The wonderful thing is they always end. As we fight to bring this crisis to an end, let’s re-embrace capitalism and foster a future generation of leaders and firms that are soldiers, not hoarders. Yes, America is a terrible place to be stupid. It will be a worse place if we replace capitalism with cronyism.
I agree with the general thrust of this, but I have questions about a couple of the details.
First is the top chart, showing percentage of "aggregate wealth" held by the middle class is in decline.  I wonder who is measuring aggregate wealth, and how.  I have read that an explanation for the supposed shrinking wealth of the "middle class" is that the middle class itself is shrinking, because many formerly upper-middle-class Americans now qualify as "upper-class."
Second is his point about "socialist democracies" being 4 of the 5 happiest nations.  Are these truly socialist countries, or are they like Sweden, a capitalist country with a very generous welfare system?  There's a big difference.
Never mind on that last point.  I looked it up.  Those are not socialist countries.  The state does not own the means of production in Finland, Norway, Denmark, etc.  I am not surprised that the Daily Kos would claim that they are socialist.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2020, 04:16:19 PM
https://247sports.com/college/georgia/Article/Coronavirus-CFP-College-Football-Playoff-committee-Mike-Pence-Vice-President-college-football-season-146089992/ (https://247sports.com/college/georgia/Article/Coronavirus-CFP-College-Football-Playoff-committee-Mike-Pence-Vice-President-college-football-season-146089992/)

So, no students in class, no football, they say.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 15, 2020, 04:27:43 PM
I think we'll see students in classrooms in the Fall. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2020, 04:42:08 PM
Sweden is largely a free market economy with a generous social safety net and very high taxes.  They also have more billionaires per capita than the US.

And when I say high taxes, I mean on the middle class, including a VAT.  You hit the top marginal tax rate in Sweden quite quickly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 15, 2020, 04:45:10 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 15, 2020, 02:01:36 PM
is there a good reason for this?

otherwise, it's just bad business
It's not a good business to get into.  The failure rate is massive just 5 years out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 15, 2020, 04:46:41 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 02:26:46 PM
This is my biggest gripe with that $2.2 trillion rescue bill. Really more like $6+ trillion. It's not doing enough for the small businesses. And it's doing nearly nothing for the average Joe. It's designed to help the richest people in this country.
Luckily, we gave that trillion$-plus tax break to the exact entities that didn't need it then and don't now.  
.
These are the times the bloated go back to the buffet for that 4th dessert.  It's a fact.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 15, 2020, 04:47:31 PM
There are 26 positive cases in my zip code now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 04:48:35 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 15, 2020, 04:47:31 PM
There are 26 positive cases in my zip code now.
How many people live in your zip code ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 15, 2020, 04:49:50 PM
About 70,000.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 05:00:01 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 15, 2020, 04:49:50 PM
About 70,000.
So confirmed cases in .0003% of the population. TIME TO PANIC.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 05:02:51 PM
CNN with the sensationalism. Reporting that we may have to shelter in place and close schools til 2022!

I can see why Chris Cuomo trashed his employer and job on a radio interview. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2020, 05:02:58 PM
https://www.npr.org/2020/04/14/834109166/where-did-the-coronavirus-originate-virus-hunters-find-genetic-clues-in-bats (https://www.npr.org/2020/04/14/834109166/where-did-the-coronavirus-originate-virus-hunters-find-genetic-clues-in-bats)

I found this to be quite interesting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2020, 05:06:03 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 05:02:51 PM
CNN with the sensationalism. Reporting that we may have to shelter in place and close schools til 2022!

I can see why Chris Cuomo trashed his employer and job on a radio interview.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/social-distancing-research-coronavirus-2022-trnd/index.html

 (https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/social-distancing-research-coronavirus-2022-trnd/index.html)They are reporting what some scientists are saying, right?  

That is, unless a vaccine or better therapeutics becomes available, or we increase our critical care capacity. In other words, 2022 is one scenario of many.

That's according to researchers from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, who published their findings in the journal Science on Tuesday (https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793). Those findings directly contradict research being touted by the White House that suggests the pandemic may stop this summer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 15, 2020, 05:06:41 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 15, 2020, 04:42:08 PM
Sweden is largely a free market economy with a generous social safety net and very high taxes.  They also have more billionaires per capita than the US.

And when I say high taxes, I mean on the middle class, including a VAT.  You hit the top marginal tax rate in Sweden quite quickly.
To bring it back to Coronavirus, Sweden is proving to be an interesting case.

They haven't closed schools. They haven't closed businesses. They're "encouraging" social distancing and banning gatherings of >50 people, but otherwise trying to rely on individual prudence rather than government mandates.

They've now reached #11 on the number of deaths per million population, but if you exclude San Marino, Andorra, and Sint Maarten to focus only on larger countries, they'd be #8 on the list.

It's hard to compare them to everyone, but they're now at 112 deaths/million. Norway is at 28, and Finland is at 13. Those are their closest "peers". For comparison, the US is at 86 per million.

If at some point we want to compare response by country, Sweden will give us an interesting data point.

(I think I mentioned this a few days ago or last week as well... But it's an interesting one.)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 15, 2020, 05:07:46 PM
Humanity won't accept closure until 2022, no matter the body count. 

So that's a non-starter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 15, 2020, 05:10:05 PM
Sorry CD the WHO never kicked into high gear.China/Russia/Iran are feeding a bunch of false info into our social media and China/Who are bed fellows.Jan 20 they kicked into high gear? - said no one ever
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 05:15:21 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 15, 2020, 05:07:46 PM
Humanity won't accept closure until 2022, no matter the body count.

So that's a non-starter.
Yeah. It’s just CNN running stupid ass headlines online on their front page and in article headlines.

Sensationalism sells. These motherf’rs will do anything to make a buck. I really wish that news media was broken up from these giant multi-national telecommunication/entertainment conglomerates. 

CNN - bitch boy of ATT
MSNBC - bitch boy of Comcast 
Fox - bitch boy of Rupert Murdoch

If anyone thinks these are legitimate news outlets- then I’ve got lots of ocean front property in Nevada that I’d love to sell you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 15, 2020, 05:21:35 PM
I never found the WHO credible after Keith Moon died.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 15, 2020, 05:22:03 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 05:15:21 PM
CNN - bitch boy of ATT
MSNBC - bitch boy of Comcast
Fox - bitch boy of Rupert Murdoch

If anyone thinks these are legitimate news outlets- then I’ve got lots of ocean front property in Nevada that I’d love to sell you.
:043: Is PBS a Bitch Boy of the BBC?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 15, 2020, 05:24:13 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 15, 2020, 05:21:35 PM
I never found the WHO credible after Keith Moon died.
Kenny jones was decent,Zack Starkey - Ringo's kid filled in for a while too
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 05:25:40 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 15, 2020, 05:10:05 PM
Sorry CD the WHO never kicked into high gear.China/Russia/Iran are feeding a bunch of false info into our social media and China/Who are bed fellows.Jan 20 they kicked into high gear? - said no one ever
Is that what they said? That’s hysterical. 

China tried to cover this thing up for almost a month before they did anything real about it. Had China taken action just 3 weeks earlier, this thing would’ve never left China. The spread would’ve been 95% contained.

WHO completely ignored warnings from Taiwan that this thing transmits human to human, and the WHO held China’s bath water and were telling the world this thing doesn’t transmit human to human- please don’t shut down trade and travel with China. 

The evidence is all there. China and China alone- with a little bit of help from the WHO - caused this thing to snowball to the point where it was able to spread like wildfire. And once it spread- game over. No stopping it. 

Makes one wonder if China didn’t want this thing to spread on purpose. The world- especially the US- is HEAVILY dependent on China for manufacturing just about every f***kng thing we use from phones, to tools, to flashlights, to medicines, to chemicals, to gloves, to ventilators, to masks, to medical TESTING. You know just about all the stuff we need to live and to survive in a pandemic. 

China needs to be dealt with swiftly and harshly, and the WHO shouldn’t get a single dollar from the US until it’s entire leadership is gutted and replaced with qualified Americans.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 15, 2020, 05:26:04 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 05:15:21 PM
Yeah. It’s just CNN running stupid ass headlines online on their front page and in article headlines.

Sensationalism sells. These motherf’rs will do anything to make a buck. I really wish that news media was broken up from these giant multi-national telecommunication/entertainment conglomerates.

CNN - bitch boy of ATT
MSNBC - bitch boy of Comcast
Fox - bitch boy of Rupert Murdoch

If anyone thinks these are legitimate news outlets- then I’ve got lots of ocean front property in Nevada that I’d love to sell you.
so what is a legitimate news outlet in your opinion
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 15, 2020, 05:40:19 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 15, 2020, 05:26:04 PM
so what is a legitimate news outlet in your opinion
SNL's Zee Big News with Zbigniew
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 15, 2020, 05:41:29 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 05:15:21 PM

Sensationalism sells. 
I think you're ignoring the real problem.
There are steps we could take to make this statement less true or eventually, untrue.  It doesn't have to be a given.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 15, 2020, 05:57:30 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 15, 2020, 05:26:04 PM
so what is a legitimate news outlet in your opinion
None. As I said in a different debate recently... Whenever possible, try to go beyond the headline, beyond the article, and to get as close to the original source as possible. 

-------------------

How many journalists who are trying to rush a story to print have time to read a 40-page legal opinion, truly digest and understand the nuance, and accurately get that to print, not just a 400 word outrage piece about how the decision is going to destroy America? Even more important, how many of their readers actually want nuance and accuracy over sensationalism?

They're playing to their audience. The American People. Who are an easily-led, barely-thinking mob that don't have time for nuance or accuracy, and just want to receive enough information to make themselves believe that they're informed. And usually do so only in the most confirmation-bias enhancing way, only taking information from the sources they already agree with completely uncritically and dismissing any opposing source as flawed.

So what does the MSM do? They craft "a tale told by an idiot [reporter], full of sound and fury. Signifying nothing."


In short, my ire for the entire profession of journalism is to find a journalist who has deep expertise in what they're writing about is usually impossible. Technology writers rarely come from an engineering or even a technical marketing background where they had to work in their subject matter every day. Legal journalists rarely have law degrees; if they did they'd make more money practicing law. Medical journalists rarely have medical degrees; if they did they'd make more money practicing medicine.

Often they're non-experts trying to cover a subject with incredible depth and nuance and get it across to a reader [also a non-expert] in a very limited format, and their paycheck isn't driven by accuracy; it's driven by circulation [or in the modern world, advertising/clicks]. And who's going to make sure they're accurate? Their editor? Not at all--he's just as much a non-expert as everyone else in the chain.

So there's no real inherent check and balance to ensure accuracy. So there's no real reason to believe that the accuracy is very good; hence going to original sources whenever possible.

I've brought up this quote by Michael Crichton regarding he and physicist Murray Gell-Mann before, summarizing what he calls the "Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect":

Quote
“Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray's case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the "wet streets cause rain" stories. Paper's full of them.

In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.”
― Michael Crichton
I've seen this over and over in my own industry, data storage. I see people who earn their living writing ONLY about data storage making completely wrong arguments, completely misinterpreting data, and drawing completely wrong conclusions thereby.

Not all of them. There are good ones and bad ones, and anyone IN the industry can tell the difference. For the lay people outside our industry? They don't know which ones are talking sense and which ones are full of it.

So when I read a subject in which I have no inherent expertise, how can I tell which journalists are accurate and which ones are full of it? Only by going to original sources and trying to determine if the journalist is accurately relaying what was in the original source. MANY, MANY, MANY times I find that they've completely missed the point and relayed it badly--if they ever read it at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 07:10:14 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 15, 2020, 05:41:29 PM
I think you're ignoring the real problem.
There are steps we could take to make this statement less true or eventually, untrue.  It doesn't have to be a given. 
That clickbait headline isn’t remotely close to being true. We aren’t social distancing and sheltering in place until 2022. Never happen in a billion years.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 08:03:02 PM
backs up what the youtuber who lived in China has been saying...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/04/14/the-washington-post-goes-rogue-china-lab-in-focus-of-coronavirus-outbreak/amp/


https://youtu.be/eT47ulzfOMo
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 15, 2020, 08:09:26 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 07:10:14 PM
That clickbait headline isn’t remotely close to being true. We aren’t social distancing and sheltering in place until 2022. Never happen in a billion years.



Again, you're missing the real problem......you're ignoring why clickbait exists in the first place.  Why it works.  How to combat that.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 15, 2020, 08:14:35 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 15, 2020, 05:02:58 PM
https://www.npr.org/2020/04/14/834109166/where-did-the-coronavirus-originate-virus-hunters-find-genetic-clues-in-bats (https://www.npr.org/2020/04/14/834109166/where-did-the-coronavirus-originate-virus-hunters-find-genetic-clues-in-bats)

I found this to be quite interesting.
Given that infectious and zoonotic diseases have been on the rise for decades, Wang is frustrated by the fact that countries around the world failed to understand the impact this novel coronavirus outbreak would have.

"I'm so angry right now. This COVID-19 outbreak, before January 20th, you could say it's China's fault. The Chinese government. But after January 20th, the rest of the world is still not taking it seriously. Our political system, our diplomatic system, our international relationship system is just not ready," Wang said.

January 20th is when Chinese health officials confirmed the new coronavirus could be transmitted between humans — and the World Health Organization kicked into high gear to evaluate the global risk. There were more than 200 cases then.

_________________________________________________ __________________________________________


the problem
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 15, 2020, 09:03:02 PM
The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center has transfused the first patient in central and northern Ohio with plasma from a recovered COVID-19 patient.

The transfusion is part of a nationwide effort to provide this plasma, also known as convalescent plasma, to people who are ill with life-threatening COVID-19 disease. People who’ve recovered from COVID-19 often have antibodies – proteins in the blood – that could possibly attack the virus. Ohio State researchers will also study the donated plasma to learn which antibodies perform best.


https://news.osu.edu/new-treatment-uses-plasma-from-recovered-covid-19-patients-at-ohio-state/ (https://news.osu.edu/new-treatment-uses-plasma-from-recovered-covid-19-patients-at-ohio-state/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 15, 2020, 09:10:14 PM
On Tuesday, General Motors revealed that its first ventilators are ready for delivery. The automaker has a contract with the US Department of Health and Human Services to license-build 30,000 Ventec Life Systems V+ Pro critical care ventilators, following criticism by President Donald Trump in March when he accused the company of "wasting time." These ventilators are designed to treat the most critically ill patients, who need invasive intubation (tubes inserted into the lungs) as opposed to non-invasive machines like CPAP or BiPAP devices, which are also often referred to as ventilators.

GM says that it will ship the first 600 ventilators by the end of April, with "almost half the order" ready by the end of June and the full 30,000 by the end of August.


_________________________________________________ ________________

hopefully, these won't be needed

makes me wonder where the first 600 are going - I haven't heard there is a critical shortage this week
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 15, 2020, 09:37:45 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 15, 2020, 09:10:14 PM
On Tuesday, General Motors revealed that its first ventilators are ready for delivery. The automaker has a contract with the US Department of Health and Human Services to license-build 30,000 Ventec Life Systems V+ Pro critical care ventilators, following criticism by President Donald Trump in March when he accused the company of "wasting time." These ventilators are designed to treat the most critically ill patients, who need invasive intubation (tubes inserted into the lungs) as opposed to non-invasive machines like CPAP or BiPAP devices, which are also often referred to as ventilators.

GM says that it will ship the first 600 ventilators by the end of April, with "almost half the order" ready by the end of June and the full 30,000 by the end of August.


_________________________________________________ ________________

hopefully, these won't be needed

makes me wonder where the first 600 are going - I haven't heard there is a critical shortage this week
ventilators made by General Motors

theres got to be a joke there

ok all you stand up comedians get to work
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 10:42:49 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 15, 2020, 08:14:35 PM
Given that infectious and zoonotic diseases have been on the rise for decades, Wang is frustrated by the fact that countries around the world failed to understand the impact this novel coronavirus outbreak would have.

"I'm so angry right now. This COVID-19 outbreak, before January 20th, you could say it's China's fault. The Chinese government. But after January 20th, the rest of the world is still not taking it seriously. Our political system, our diplomatic system, our international relationship system is just not ready," Wang said.

January 20th is when Chinese health officials confirmed the new coronavirus could be transmitted between humans — and the World Health Organization kicked into high gear to evaluate the global risk. There were more than 200 cases then.
That is bullshit. It is 100% China's fault. Secret internal Chinese government documents show they knew on January 14th there was a pandemic occurring in Wuhan and that this thing was transmissible person to person, and the Chinese government waited 6 days- until January 20th to inform the world that hey- this thing transmits person to person and we've got a big problem brewing.

Six days. Why? And during those 6 days, the Chinese government allowed tens of thousands of people to attend a public banquet in Wuhan and millions more of Chinese people to travel all over China/the world for Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations.

Taiwan was pressuring the WHO and telling the WHO on December 29th that they have evidence that this thing transmits person to person. The WHO told Taiwan to f##k off and continued to hold water for China and parrot Chinese propaganda on this virus and were tweeting out as late as January 14th- hey this thing doesn't transmit person to person- don't ban travel and trade with China! No big deal! F###king bastards.

https://apnews.com/68a9e1b91de4ffc166acd6012d82c2f9

https://www.axios.com/timeline-the-early-days-of-chinas-coronavirus-outbreak-and-cover-up-ee65211a-afb6-4641-97b8-353718a5faab.html

As you can see from that wonderful Axios timeline- there was a study done by a university in the UK- had China acted 3 weeks earlier- this thing would've been 95% contained. What did China do? They dragged their feet, they lied about it, withheld crucial information for a week not once- but twice, kicked out Western journalists, destroyed evidence, and silenced whistle-blowers and murdered Doctors that were trying to warn the world.

China Lied. People Died. They must be taken to task for the death and economic destruction they have reaped upon the world. Everyone can say we should've done X, Y, and Z- but once that virus spreads you can't stop it. Too late. China allowed this thing to spread and did nothing but try to cover it up and lie about it and disappear whistle blowers and murder Doctors and destroy evidence.

The CCP needs to be destroyed. Time for regime change in Beijing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 15, 2020, 11:19:41 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 10:42:49 PM


https://apnews.com/68a9e1b91de4ffc166acd6012d82c2f9

https://www.axios.com/timeline-the-early-days-of-chinas-coronavirus-outbreak-and-cover-up-ee65211a-afb6-4641-97b8-353718a5faab.html

6 key days my dying ass

those bastards knew about this crap on January 1st if not weeks before that!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 11:24:34 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 15, 2020, 11:19:41 PM
6 key days my dying ass

those bastards knew about this crap on January 1st if not weeks before that!
They knew about this thing in November.

The 6 days I was referring too- that was when they knew for certain that it spreads human to human and that they were in the thick of a bad pandemic. They sat on that info for 6 days before they mentioned it to the world. Just like they sequenced the genome of the virus on Jan. 1st and sat on that info for I think 9 days before they shared it with the world.

They are evil, lying, bastards.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 15, 2020, 11:26:00 PM
I good news, I got my $1200 today

I wrote a check for $600 and sent to my daughter that is attending college and out of a job.

she won't get her full amount because I claim her as a dependant
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 15, 2020, 11:46:04 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 15, 2020, 07:10:14 PM
That clickbait headline isn’t remotely close to being true. We aren’t social distancing and sheltering in place until 2022. Never happen in a billion years.



Headline seems pretty true.

It says a scientist predicts that it may happen. Which the scientist indeed does.

I guess that's news, a topic that baits you into clicking on it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 16, 2020, 01:24:05 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 15, 2020, 05:57:30 PM
None. As I said in a different debate recently... Whenever possible, try to go beyond the headline, beyond the article, and to get as close to the original source as possible.

-------------------

How many journalists who are trying to rush a story to print have time to read a 40-page legal opinion, truly digest and understand the nuance, and accurately get that to print, not just a 400 word outrage piece about how the decision is going to destroy America? Even more important, how many of their readers actually want nuance and accuracy over sensationalism?

They're playing to their audience. The American People. Who are an easily-led, barely-thinking mob that don't have time for nuance or accuracy, and just want to receive enough information to make themselves believe that they're informed. And usually do so only in the most confirmation-bias enhancing way, only taking information from the sources they already agree with completely uncritically and dismissing any opposing source as flawed.

So what does the MSM do? They craft "a tale told by an idiot [reporter], full of sound and fury. Signifying nothing."


In short, my ire for the entire profession of journalism is to find a journalist who has deep expertise in what they're writing about is usually impossible. Technology writers rarely come from an engineering or even a technical marketing background where they had to work in their subject matter every day. Legal journalists rarely have law degrees; if they did they'd make more money practicing law. Medical journalists rarely have medical degrees; if they did they'd make more money practicing medicine.

Often they're non-experts trying to cover a subject with incredible depth and nuance and get it across to a reader [also a non-expert] in a very limited format, and their paycheck isn't driven by accuracy; it's driven by circulation [or in the modern world, advertising/clicks]. And who's going to make sure they're accurate? Their editor? Not at all--he's just as much a non-expert as everyone else in the chain.

So there's no real inherent check and balance to ensure accuracy. So there's no real reason to believe that the accuracy is very good; hence going to original sources whenever possible.

I've brought up this quote by Michael Crichton regarding he and physicist Murray Gell-Mann before, summarizing what he calls the "Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect":

I've seen this over and over in my own industry, data storage. I see people who earn their living writing ONLY about data storage making completely wrong arguments, completely misinterpreting data, and drawing completely wrong conclusions thereby.

Not all of them. There are good ones and bad ones, and anyone IN the industry can tell the difference. For the lay people outside our industry? They don't know which ones are talking sense and which ones are full of it.

So when I read a subject in which I have no inherent expertise, how can I tell which journalists are accurate and which ones are full of it? Only by going to original sources and trying to determine if the journalist is accurately relaying what was in the original source. MANY, MANY, MANY times I find that they've completely missed the point and relayed it badly--if they ever read it at all.
I see it in military subjects all the time.  In print and on TV.  The reporter doesn't know a rifle from a grenade launcher, a tank from a self-propelled howizter, an F-35 from an F-16 . . . etc.
Ironically, Michael Crichton has been guilty of the same thing.  The only novel of his I ever tried to read was Congo, and it had a C-130 Hercules as the world's largest airplane and a "UH-2 Huey" helicopter in it.
I put the book down at that point and never picked it up again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 16, 2020, 01:46:39 AM
CCP still covering it up. 

https://youtu.be/a-GVcfP1zrg



should we really be surprised? CCP killed countless tens of millions of it’s own citizens during the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution, they’ve been occupying Tibet for 70 years, they’ve silenced dissenters and slaughtered protestors in Hong Kong, they’ve been persecuting members of the Falun Gong religious sect for the last 20 years- throwing them in jail, killing them and harvesting their organs just because. Oh yeah not to mention they claim Taiwan and block Taiwan from joining the UN, WHO, and WTO. 

Oh yeah, they also have a million plus Muslim Uighurs in concentration camps. 

Why does the US do so much business with those assholes again? Time to pull out of China. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 16, 2020, 07:08:32 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 15, 2020, 09:03:02 PM
The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center has transfused the first patient in central and northern Ohio with plasma from a recovered COVID-19 patient.

The transfusion is part of a nationwide effort to provide this plasma, also known as convalescent plasma, to people who are ill with life-threatening COVID-19 disease.
I just received my 8 week notice from Vitalant for blood donation.I think I'll do it - sometimes they include gift cards from Giant Eagle.I've talked to two people in the same Nursing home.One is a patient the other is in Maintenance.They've had no deaths,but we didn't ask about illnesses.Individuals have been quarantined
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 16, 2020, 07:24:57 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 15, 2020, 09:10:14 PM
On Tuesday, General Motors revealed that its first ventilators are ready for delivery. The automaker has a contract with the US Department of Health and Human Services to license-build 30,000 Ventec Life Systems V+ Pro critical care ventilators
I sincerely Hope that GM puts more effort into designing these things as their new Pick Ups.A friend's son has  4 month old Chevy and it's been a disaster,they install all of these high tech bells and whistles and none of it can make it a month or two,Seriously they need to go back to what works specially in a case like that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 16, 2020, 07:40:40 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 16, 2020, 07:24:57 AM
I sincerely Hope that GM puts more effort into designing these things as their new Pick Ups.A friend's son has  4 month old Chevy and it's been a disaster,they install all of these high tech bells and whistles and none of it can make it a month or two,Seriously they need to go back to what works specially in a case like that
My brother in law bought a new Chevy pick up last summer. It literally has been in the shop longer than in his driveway. He had it for a week and took it in for an issue in the rear end. They had it 3 MONTHS. When he got it back, it still had the same problem so he took it back again. This time they had it for 4 MONTHS. He got it back again, still had the problem. Took it back to them again and they finally just replaced the entire rear end, which they should have done in the first place. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 16, 2020, 07:42:55 AM
This post has been edited from its original content, to remove names and references to a prior post - which has been removed.

- 847

***************************************************************************************************

This thread was honing in on a very non- political topic- one that is extremely important:

did this pandemic originate in China and did the CCP and WHO cover it up, with an obvious gruesome outcome for the world in lives and economic pain for months and years to come?

that is a noteworthy non political topic.

Hatred for The President causes people to insert anti-President political comments repeatedly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 16, 2020, 07:50:48 AM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 16, 2020, 07:40:40 AM
My brother in law bought a new Chevy pick up last summer. It literally has been in the shop longer than in his driveway. He had it for a week and took it in for an issue in the rear end. They had it 3 MONTHS. When he got it back, it still had the same problem so he took it back again. This time they had it for 4 MONTHS. He got it back again, still had the problem. Took it back to them again and they finally just replaced the entire rear end, which they should have done in the first place.
Ya I guess this Jeff finally told them as nice as he could "F*** You just give me a new truck".Like you said it's been in the shop - it's this shit the Gov't should go after.Sooner or later they are gonna screw with the wrong customer - I just hope he goes to corporate if he twists off :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on April 16, 2020, 07:57:34 AM
Btw does anyone else have an issue with the font size when cutting and pasting things?  Or just me?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2020, 08:03:29 AM
If you C&P twice, the second one shows up in larger font.  I usually go back and change it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on April 16, 2020, 08:05:20 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 16, 2020, 08:03:29 AM
If you C&P twice, the second one shows up in larger font.  I usually go back and change it.
Good to know thanks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2020, 08:46:00 AM
And now back to your regularly scheduled programming.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 16, 2020, 08:51:33 AM
man did I have a bad dream

I dreamed this thread was pink

got to switch beers
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on April 16, 2020, 08:57:30 AM
(https://redemptiverepair.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/boy-sticking-knife-into-socket.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2020, 09:11:17 AM
I don't advise that Max. You could get hurt that way.

OK guys, we've (I've??) mentioned this before. Policy is fine here. Politics (and naming politicians) is not fine here.

This whole thing is a bloody mess. From the WHO telling the world there was no evidence of human spread, to a major leader encouraging a big party in San Francisco's China Town, to Dr. Fauci advising us on March 9 that's OK to take a cruise, to Marti Gras being held, to Spring Break being allowed to happen, to elections being held... 

We now see how this all happened.

It's not about agendas here in the US. Our government (Fed, State, Local), the CDC, the doctors.. None had a clue what this thing was. Nor did any of us. 

It's time we all come together and unite against this virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 16, 2020, 09:21:44 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2020, 09:11:17 AM
I don't advise that Max. You could get hurt that way.

OK guys, we've (I've??) mentioned this before. Policy is fine here. Politics (and naming politicians) is not fine here.

This whole thing is a bloody mess. From the WHO telling the world there was no evidence of human spread, to a major leader encouraging a big party in San Francisco's China Town, to Dr. Fauci advising us on March 9 that's OK to take a cruise, to Marti Gras being held, to Spring Break being allowed to happen, to elections being held...

We now see how this all happened.

It's not about agendas here in the US. Our government (Fed, State, Local), the CDC, the doctors.. None had a clue what this thing was. Nor did any of us.

It's time we all come together and unite against this virus.
Amen. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 16, 2020, 09:24:58 AM
I'm just gonna take this moment to state right now--

I hate this fucking virus.


Also, I've never sworn on message boards, and rarely do it in real life, and especially not the f-word.

Until this fucking virus.

Which I really, really hate.

The End.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 16, 2020, 09:32:34 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on April 16, 2020, 08:57:30 AM
(https://redemptiverepair.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/boy-sticking-knife-into-socket.jpg)
I actually did this at about age 4

I still remember my brother laughing at me as I sat there dumbfounded

In Texas its called getting an education




Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 16, 2020, 09:33:34 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2020, 09:11:17 AM
I don't advise that Max. You could get hurt that way.

OK guys, we've (I've??) mentioned this before. Policy is fine here. Politics (and naming politicians) is not fine here.

This whole thing is a bloody mess. From the WHO telling the world there was no evidence of human spread, to a major leader encouraging a big party in San Francisco's China Town, to Dr. Fauci advising us on March 9 that's OK to take a cruise, to Marti Gras being held, to Spring Break being allowed to happen, to elections being held...

We now see how this all happened.

It's not about agendas here in the US. Our government (Fed, State, Local), the CDC, the doctors.. None had a clue what this thing was. Nor did any of us.

It's time we all come together and unite against this virus.
Well said 847

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2020, 09:35:36 AM
I just made a bimonthly run to Walmart.  Not many customers, a lot of employees.  The place was unusually neat.  The were short of beef.  They had some TP, the aisle was not full and they had a sign up on allocation.  I thought it would be fully replenished by now.  This Walmart is across the freeway from a very wealthy part of the city and to the other side is a semi-industrial area that is changing rapidly with construction of apartment buildings.  

They seemed to be fully stocked with everything else, the dried bean selection was still low.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 16, 2020, 09:40:00 AM
Here in northwest Houston Kroger is well stocked on meat and just about everything else even TP
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 16, 2020, 09:46:40 AM
Our grocery stores have had TP for a while, and finally have flour and hand sanitizer and clorox wipes.  We only bought the flour, we have plenty of the rest.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 16, 2020, 10:04:22 AM
Dumbasses.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-52304832/coronavirus-michigan-protesters-defy-stay-at-home-order (https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-52304832/coronavirus-michigan-protesters-defy-stay-at-home-order)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2020, 10:06:48 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 16, 2020, 10:04:22 AM
Dumbasses.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-52304832/coronavirus-michigan-protesters-defy-stay-at-home-order (https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-52304832/coronavirus-michigan-protesters-defy-stay-at-home-order)
To be fair, Michigan is extreme.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 16, 2020, 10:23:52 AM
I think that Americans will do just about anything within reason to get rid of this virus but the Michigan governor has
crossed several lines concerning peoples rights and not many Americans will put up with it

She needs to reassess reasonableness 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 16, 2020, 10:46:01 AM
I just read Whitmer's order... Link below if anyone wants to look at it...

What's so extreme about it?

https://www.michigan.gov/whitmer/0,9309,7-387-90499_90705-525182--,00.html (https://www.michigan.gov/whitmer/0,9309,7-387-90499_90705-525182--,00.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 16, 2020, 10:58:39 AM
So... GO BLUE? :)

Anyone wanna summarize the "unreasonableness" and the response of the citizens?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2020, 11:06:46 AM
Just a few:

If you own a vacation home in the State of Michigan, you are not allowed to travel to it from your main home in Michigan.

It's OK to go out on a sailboat, but power boats for fishing are off-limits. (WTF?? I read this in the Chicago paper)

From MLive:

(You can't have a garden apparently?? Can't do any home improvements while you are.. at home... Furniture I get. You don't want people testing out furniture and then have other people test it out after.)


Grocery stores and other retailers that sell food, medicine and other essentials are allowed to remain open during the stay-at-home order, although they’ll now be subject to additional occupancy restrictions and be required to shut down non-essential areas of the store, including sections dedicated to carpeting, flooring, furniture, garden centers, plant nurseries or paint.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 16, 2020, 11:17:05 AM
Thanks badge.

In some areas of the country, I think those would be extreme measures.  But Michigan is suffering pretty badly from this thing, so I'm not sure it's all that outrageous.  

Basically, the general thrust is-- you're only allowed to go out, in order to get the very most essential things for living.  

Even the "no travel to vacation home" makes sense from the perspective of stopping non-essential travel.  I do wonder though, what about folks that are already at their vacation homes?  Are they supposed to return to their main homes?  Because that seems similarly risky.

Anyway, as I've said before, these are the kinds of things we can, and should, be doing in the short term.   But "short term" must be measured in weeks, not months, and certainly not years.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 16, 2020, 11:17:40 AM
The vacation home thing is exactly what @Kris60 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=79) was complaining about... People fleeing Detroit, the most impacted area, and potentially spreading the infections with them to the less populated areas of the state. Isn't that basically done to protect the tourist areas from seeing spikes in cases?

I'll admit that the closing off of nurseries, paint, and flooring sections of the hardware store is unreasonable, because frankly if you want people to actually stay home, giving them the ability to do their home improvement projects gives them something to do without going stir crazy. I'm actually planning on doing some paint projects I've put off since Christmastime during this--luckily I already have the paint. But to be honest, you can make an argument that the rest of the hardware store is "essential", i.e. the plumbing dept might be someplace you HAVE to visit for a critical fix. The flooring and paint departments are not essential. I'm guessing that they were seeing huge spikes in traffic in those departments and this is a response to that. 

I didn't read anything about boats in her order... And a text search for "boat" or "fish" returns zero results. So I'm not sure what that's about.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 16, 2020, 11:19:03 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 16, 2020, 01:46:39 AM
CCP still covering it up.

https://youtu.be/a-GVcfP1zrg



should we really be surprised? CCP killed countless tens of millions of it’s own citizens during the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution, they’ve been occupying Tibet for 70 years, they’ve silenced dissenters and slaughtered protestors in Hong Kong, they’ve been persecuting members of the Falun Gong religious sect for the last 20 years- throwing them in jail, killing them and harvesting their organs just because. Oh yeah not to mention they claim Taiwan and block Taiwan from joining the UN, WHO, and WTO.

Oh yeah, they also have a million plus Muslim Uighurs in concentration camps.

Why does the US do so much business with those assholes again? Time to pull out of China.
I think Mao is "credited" with being responsible for the killing of 40 million Chinese.  He makes Stalin--who had 20 million Soviet subjects killed--a piker by comparison.
Of course, this does not discredit communism.  Oh, no!  Communism has a great future and always will.  It will be great, someday.  When it is applied "properly."  Then we'll have Utopia.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 16, 2020, 11:21:47 AM
Communism is awesome for anyone on the Central Committee.  Just make sure you're one of those dudes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2020, 11:23:46 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 16, 2020, 11:17:40 AM
I didn't read anything about boats in her order... And a text search for "boat" or "fish" returns zero results. So I'm not sure what that's about.

In the Michigan of ..... (edit to remove reference to name) — you can’t buy tomato plants for your backyard garden. You may float along in a sailboat or kayak, but if a laid-off auto worker dares take his motorized bass boat out for some solitary fishing, he is in violation.

************************
Yesterday's Tribune. John Kass article.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 16, 2020, 11:29:37 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2020, 11:23:46 AM

In the Michigan of ..... (edit to remove reference to name) — you can’t buy tomato plants for your backyard garden. You may float along in a sailboat or kayak, but if a laid-off auto worker dares take his motorized bass boat out for some solitary fishing, he is in violation.

************************
Yesterday's Tribune. John Kass article.
So... Do you trust the Chicago Tribune? Or do you trust the governor's order? 

Here is the text related to a kayak:



Quote
Individuals may leave their home or place of residence, and travel as necessary:
 
  • To engage in outdoor physical activity, consistent with remaining at least six feet from people from outside the individual’s household. Outdoor physical activity includes walking, hiking, running, cycling, kayaking, canoeing, or other similar physical activity, as well as any comparable activity for those with limited mobility.

Nothing about pleasureboating of any sort, i.e. sailboat OR powerboat. It's only relating to exercise.

Nowhere is powerboat or fishing called out in the order, of course. Because you can't do those from your house and you're supposed to stay at home. Exercise is an declared exception, powerboating is not an exception. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 16, 2020, 11:32:47 AM
Yeah, not being able to buy seeds and supplies for a garden is one I don’t understand.

I kinda get the home improvement aspect of it (although I don’t like it) but what about home repairs? We had some pretty good storms come through here a few nights ago that took some trees down.  In Michigan, they have tools and chainsaws blocked off at stores so that they can’t be purchased. That seems extreme.

People for the most part have been pretty understanding about having some liberties taken away.  That understanding will have an expiration date though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 16, 2020, 11:32:54 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 16, 2020, 11:21:47 AM
Communism is awesome for anyone on the Central Committee.  Just make sure you're one of those dudes.
But if you go carrying pictures of Chairman Mao

You ain't going to make it with anyone anyhow"

-John Lennon
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 16, 2020, 11:33:27 AM
This is what pisses me off about the MSM...

The governor's actual order is publicly posted online and easily accessible from a 5 second google search. I even provided the link.

But we're reduced to arguing about what a newspaper writer did to summarize [badly] the order and put his own spin on it to make it SOUND much more unreasonable than it is. Like somehow powerboating and fishing is uniquely singled out but sailboats (which aren't mentioned) or kayaks are allowed. 

I don't want to hear about what you read in the paper if it's easily disputed by reading the actual original source material that is public and available. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2020, 11:37:51 AM
????


https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/michigan/2020/04/11/dnr-motorized-boating-not-allowed-under-michigans-new-stay-at-home-order/


I'll hang up and listen for my answer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 16, 2020, 12:00:49 PM
Nothing in the actual order addressed sailing: https://www.michigan.gov/whitmer/0,9309,7-387-90499_90705-525182--,00.html (https://www.michigan.gov/whitmer/0,9309,7-387-90499_90705-525182--,00.html)

It appears in the FAQ of the order: https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98178_98455-525278--,00.html?fbclid=IwAR1DgWnPLw33QILSX4zxi7uq5Ufic56YufPjhHaxowZSzEFWENDMvmFBKkA (https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98178_98455-525278--,00.html?fbclid=IwAR1DgWnPLw33QILSX4zxi7uq5Ufic56YufPjhHaxowZSzEFWENDMvmFBKkA)


Quote
Q: Does boating constitute “outdoor activity” under the new executive order?

A: Physical outdoor activity like kayaking, canoeing, and sailing is permitted under the order, but using a motorboat, a jet ski, or other similar watercraft is not. Any outdoor activity permitted under the order, including boating, must be done in a manner consistent with social distancing, and individuals should use only their own equipment to prevent the transmission of the virus through the touching of shared surfaces. Additionally, in accordance with section 2 of the order, persons not part of a single household may not boat together. 


And in the FAQ on the Dept of Natural Resources page: https://www.michigan.gov/dnr/0,4570,7-350-79137_79770_98926---,00.html (https://www.michigan.gov/dnr/0,4570,7-350-79137_79770_98926---,00.html)

It goes on with more detail on the reason for the change:


Quote
The DNR has received many reports about heavy use of boat launches across the state and the subsequent congregation of people at these launches in violation of social distancing requirements, and in a manner that threatens public health. In addition, people who use motorized watercraft typically need to procure secondary services for their craft, such as parts and gasoline, that could unnecessarily increase contact with others and spread disease. The hope is that the prohibition on the use of motorized watercraft will reduce the movement of, and contact among, people with the intent of slowing the spread of the coronavirus.
So it appears that sailing might be an exception on the grounds that it is an "outdoor physical activity".


I personally feel that's BS... Most sailboats aren't used for exercise, in the way that canoes and kayaks are. And frankly using a jet ski, or waterskiing behind a powerboat, could legitimately be called exercise. So I'm not sure why sailboats are included in the FAQ as an exception but not called out in the order. 

But almost more importantly, it sounds like the change was based upon the reports of people being dumbasses at boat launches.

Dumbasses, as usual, ruin it for the rest of us. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 16, 2020, 12:02:56 PM
It would have been nice if the writers of the ClickOnDetroit web site had, you know, LINKED to those FAQs I just provided above. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 16, 2020, 12:20:45 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/4aOu41J.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2020, 12:26:08 PM
Anyone ever try to move a sailboat with no wind to propel it?

Anyone ever try to dock a sailboat without using an engine?

Anyone ever hear of short-sighted? 

Sailboats need fuel too.


But, this is (in my opinion) off the rails, for no reason really, other than to make me look bad for typing what I read. Nothing that I posted was WRONG. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 16, 2020, 12:28:22 PM
Depending on the size of the sailboat and how often you're tacking and jibing, it's a helluva workout.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 16, 2020, 12:28:57 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 16, 2020, 12:02:56 PM
It would have been nice if the writers of the ClickOnDetroit web site had, you know, LINKED to those FAQs I just provided above.



The Governor has protests in the streets

She needs to address these misconceptions you point out if in fact they are misconceptions

The one thing she should not do is tell the people that protesting is illegal 

that only pisses them off more
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2020, 12:29:01 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 16, 2020, 11:17:40 AM
The vacation home thing is exactly what @Kris60 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=79) was complaining about... People fleeing Detroit, the most impacted area, and potentially spreading the infections with them to the less populated areas of the state. Isn't that basically done to protect the tourist areas from seeing spikes in cases?
There is a BIG difference in not allowing vacation rentals or camping versus banning people from going to a property that they actually own, and have constitutional rights to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2020, 12:30:15 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 16, 2020, 12:28:22 PM
Depending on the size of the sailboat and how often you're tacking and jibing, it's a helluva workout.
Have at it.


(https://sailboatdata.com/storage/images/sailboat/photo/nautical_56_photo.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 16, 2020, 12:31:50 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2020, 12:29:01 PM
There is a BIG difference in not allowing vacation rentals or camping versus banning people from going to a property that they actually own, and have constitutional rights to.
I agree.

But, again, this comes back to poorer people.  Those who live in vacation areas are the people who work them.  They're the ones living there year-round.  And they're the ones the vacation home owners are bringing the virus to.  There's literally no situation in which these people aren't screwed, I swear.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 16, 2020, 12:32:21 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2020, 12:30:15 PM
Have at it.


(https://sailboatdata.com/storage/images/sailboat/photo/nautical_56_photo.jpg)

Is that yours?  Need a deckhand?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 16, 2020, 12:34:57 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 16, 2020, 07:24:57 AM
I sincerely Hope that GM puts more effort into designing these things as their new Pick Ups.A friend's son has  4 month old Chevy and it's been a disaster,they install all of these high tech bells and whistles and none of it can make it a month or two,Seriously they need to go back to what works specially in a case like that
I would hope that GM isn't doing any design work here.  The design and specs should have been done and simply given to GM and Ford to manufacture
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2020, 12:38:46 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 16, 2020, 12:32:21 PM
Is that yours?  Need a deckhand?
I have a powerboat about that size, and I'm allowed to use it in Wisconsin (and everywhere else in the country, sans Michigan).

If it wasn't snowing weather, I'd probably be on it right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 16, 2020, 12:44:49 PM
If I'm living in Detroit with my family and I have a chance to get away from a hot spot while still healthy, I'm getting the F out before my family gets sick.

I understand I "could" be contagious w/o symptoms and could possibly spread the virus to my vacation area, but they'd have to forcibly stop me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 16, 2020, 12:50:44 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 16, 2020, 11:33:27 AM
This is what pisses me off about the MSM...

The governor's actual order is publicly posted online and easily accessible from a 5 second google search. I even provided the link.

But we're reduced to arguing about what a newspaper writer did to summarize [badly] the order and put his own spin on it to make it SOUND much more unreasonable than it is. Like somehow powerboating and fishing is uniquely singled out but sailboats (which aren't mentioned) or kayaks are allowed.

I don't want to hear about what you read in the paper if it's easily disputed by reading the actual original source material that is public and available.
It's also worth noting, we have to work to not get our news from the opinion writers. We as a people by and large are poor at that, though admittedly, from a market standpoint, that's why they have opinion writers (well, that and tradition). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 16, 2020, 12:51:31 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 16, 2020, 10:46:01 AM
I just read Whitmer's order... Link below if anyone wants to look at it...

What's so extreme about it?

https://www.michigan.gov/whitmer/0,9309,7-387-90499_90705-525182--,00.html (https://www.michigan.gov/whitmer/0,9309,7-387-90499_90705-525182--,00.html)
So I live in Florida now but when I lived in Michigan I live on a small private lake with very few houses on it and nobody was ever on the lake. Under these rules I could not take my small pontoon boat to fish. That’s insane
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 16, 2020, 12:55:02 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2020, 12:26:08 PM

But, this is (in my opinion) off the rails, for no reason really, other than to make me look bad for typing what I read. Nothing that I posted was WRONG.
Not trying to make you look bad, Badge. I asked what people considered unreasonable about the order--and posted a link to the order. 

I think a "stay at home" order suggests that if you want to go tool around on your boat, unless you live on it, is not a valid exception to a stay at home order. 

Michigan may have erred in adding sailboats to the list, but it was an exception that was tied to the outdoor physical activity exception, not because the governor just really loves sailing and hates powerboats... 

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 16, 2020, 12:28:22 PM
Depending on the size of the sailboat and how often you're tacking and jibing, it's a helluva workout.
That can be true, but there are a lot of things that can be a workout without working out being a primary reason for the activity. So I think it's a loophole.

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2020, 12:29:01 PM
There is a BIG difference in not allowing vacation rentals or camping versus banning people from going to a property that they actually own, and have constitutional rights to.
Maybe so. Maybe it'll be challenged in court and the governor will lose.

You do understand the intent, though, right? The goal is to prevent unnecessary spread of disease. Rural communities with a lot of unoccupied houses probably don't have very many cases right now. A bunch of suburban Detroit folks flocking to them might change that. 

I'm sure if people were being responsible, loading up their cars with all the necessary supplies for a several week stay at their vacation home, and then faithfully observing the stay-at-home restrictions once they got there, there'd probably be no reason for this part of the order. My guess, however, is that people were being dumbasses, driving out to their rural vacation home, going to 3-4 stores to get all their supplies, interacting with the locals, etc, and I'll bet the locals got pissed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2020, 12:57:44 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 16, 2020, 12:50:44 PM
It's also worth noting, we have to work to not get our news from the opinion writers. We as a people by and large are poor at that, though admittedly, from a market standpoint, that's why they have opinion writers (well, that and tradition).
Guilty as charged here. I'd just like to know where to find writers without an opinion. They don't exist anymore. Everything is an editorial.

BWar dug in for facts, and that's good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 16, 2020, 01:06:57 PM
I'd also mention there's one additional possible reason for a sailboat exception...

I'd guess that a much larger percentage of sailboats compared to powerboats/jet skis/etc are docked rather than towed. It's much harder to tow/launch a 23' sailboat with a massive keel on it than a 20' ski boat or a little fishing skiff.

So it's more likely that someone going sailing won't need to use a boat launch. That might not be true for guys like Badge who have much larger boats and leave them docked in a marina, but I'm guessing powerboats of his size are a MUCH smaller number compared to the powerboats most recreational owners are using.

If a big part of the issue was people being dumbasses at boat launches, this might explain part of why sailboats are excluded.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2020, 01:08:51 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 16, 2020, 12:55:02 PM
1. Michigan may have erred in adding sailboats to the list, but it was an exception that was tied to the outdoor physical activity exception, not because the governor just really loves sailing and hates powerboats...

2. You do understand the intent, though, right? The goal is to prevent unnecessary spread of disease. Rural communities with a lot of unoccupied houses probably don't have very many cases right now. A bunch of suburban Detroit folks flocking to them might change that.

1. That would be interesting to find out. Sailboat people generally have disdain for powerboaters. Trust me, I see it all the time. We pollute everything...

2. I do understand it. I just think it's completely unreasonable to tell anyone they cannot go to a property they own, by executive order. There are other ways to handle this issue - mandating a 14 day quarantine being one of them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 16, 2020, 01:15:24 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 16, 2020, 12:55:02 PM
Not trying to make you look bad, Badge. I asked what people considered unreasonable about the order--and posted a link to the order.

I think a "stay at home" order suggests that if you want to go tool around on your boat, unless you live on it, is not a valid exception to a stay at home order.

Michigan may have erred in adding sailboats to the list, but it was an exception that was tied to the outdoor physical activity exception, not because the governor just really loves sailing and hates powerboats...
That can be true, but there are a lot of things that can be a workout without working out being a primary reason for the activity. So I think it's a loophole.
Maybe so. Maybe it'll be challenged in court and the governor will lose.

You do understand the intent, though, right? The goal is to prevent unnecessary spread of disease. Rural communities with a lot of unoccupied houses probably don't have very many cases right now. A bunch of suburban Detroit folks flocking to them might change that.

I'm sure if people were being responsible, loading up their cars with all the necessary supplies for a several week stay at their vacation home, and then faithfully observing the stay-at-home restrictions once they got there, there'd probably be no reason for this part of the order. My guess, however, is that people were being dumbasses, driving out to their rural vacation home, going to 3-4 stores to get all their supplies, interacting with the locals, etc, and I'll bet the locals got pissed.
Good intentions do not trump my rights. This is what is upsetting people. The government in Michigan and other states is telling adults what they may or may not do. I understand the need to keep your distance from others, but why not address that and not just ban life in general?  I don't accept a "stay at home order" as legitimate. 

If others want to hide and cower over a virus, that I still contend when all is said and done will be no more deadly than the average flu, that is your right. However, I don't believe in giving up any more freedoms because people are afraid of results of a model that has yet to be anywhere near accurate. 

A quarantine is when they prevent sick people from moving around. To lock down healthy people is Tyranny. If you can't tell the difference, that is on you. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2020, 02:19:20 PM
“The clinical support is very, very minimal,” says Maryam Keshtkar-Jahromi, an assistant professor of medicine at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, who co-authored an article in the American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (http://www.ajtmh.org/docserver/fulltext/10.4269/ajtmh.20-0230/tpmd200230.pdf?expires=1585948318&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=2D22753ABC9C520853445F297719D628) calling for more randomized controlled trials of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine. The drugs do “not show strong evidence at this point,” she adds.

A few preclinical studies (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0) have suggested these compounds could be effective at blocking infection with the novel coronavirus (officially called SARS-CoV-2), but there has been very little good evidence from clinical trials in patients with the illness it causes, COVID-19.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heres-what-we-know-about-the-most-touted-drugs-tested-for-covid-191/ (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heres-what-we-know-about-the-most-touted-drugs-tested-for-covid-191/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 16, 2020, 02:30:45 PM
Well that's not encouraging...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2020, 02:33:55 PM
No, it's not really encouraging news, but there are still many clinicals out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 16, 2020, 02:43:48 PM
Have you noticed that the media never talks about recoveries

The window for this virus is 14 to 21 days so currently out of 667,000 cases in the US

the current active is down to 500,000

as soon as the daily recoveries start outnumbering the daily new cases we will start to see

improvement

I think we are within 10 days of that happening
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2020, 02:48:57 PM
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 16, 2020, 02:51:31 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 16, 2020, 02:48:57 PM
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
yep this is the spreadsheet I base my theory on

Ive been tracking the daily update to this sheet from Feb 27 when our number of cases was 60
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 16, 2020, 03:10:31 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 16, 2020, 02:43:48 PM
Have you noticed that the media never talks about recoveries

The window for this virus is 14 to 21 days so currently out of 667,000 cases in the US

the current active is down to 500,000

as soon as the daily recoveries start outnumbering the daily new cases we will start to see

improvement

I think we are within 10 days of that happening
From what I have read/heard, no one is considered recovered unless they have had 2 consecutive negative Covid tests at least 24 hrs apart. And being as testing is hard to come by, it is next to impossible to be tested for it once you have passed the 14 day quarantine period. Therefore, the official number of recovered will stagger far behind the number of infections. It is just another way to pad the numbers. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 16, 2020, 03:18:16 PM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 16, 2020, 03:10:31 PM
From what I have read/heard, no one is considered recovered unless they have had 2 consecutive negative Covid tests at least 24 hrs apart. And being as testing is hard to come by, it is next to impossible to be tested for it once you have passed the 14 day quarantine period. Therefore, the official number of recovered will stagger far behind the number of infections. It is just another way to pad the numbers.
You are 100% correct so I have to assume recovery after 14 days have passed 
The number shown as recovered is far lower then actual IMHO
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 16, 2020, 03:22:12 PM
the governor in Michigan is on a power trip and she’s more concerned with going on national media and becoming a celebrity and trying to be Joe Biden’s VP nominee than she is actually solving the problems her state is facing. 

She’s done a horrible job dealing with this virus from the start, it’s exploded in Michigan and really for no apparent reason. Michigan isn’t some densely populated metropolis or some travel Mecca where people are constantly coming to like NYC/NJ. How it has just exploded in Michigan is beyond my comprehension. 

She’s gone overboard in trying to project strength and go on the media and act like a tough governor when the reality is she’s way in over her head and she went way too far with some of these restrictions. 

And don’t give me the people will bring it to their second home crap. Detroit alone has most of the states cases. And Detroit is 90% African American and 99.9% poor as shit. There is literally probably nobody in Detroit that would own a second vacation home up north. 

I have family in Michigan that voted for her and now basically hate her. She’s cooked her own goose in the next election I’m afraid. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 16, 2020, 03:23:13 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 16, 2020, 12:44:49 PM
If I'm living in Detroit with my family and I have a chance to get away from a hot spot while still healthy, I'm getting the F out before my family gets sick.

I understand I "could" be contagious w/o symptoms and could possibly spread the virus to my vacation area, but they'd have to forcibly stop me.
If you’re living in Detroit with your family, there’s a 99% chance you’re poor as shit and have nowhere else to go. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 16, 2020, 03:26:28 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 16, 2020, 02:19:20 PM
“The clinical support is very, very minimal,” says Maryam Keshtkar-Jahromi, an assistant professor of medicine at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, who co-authored an article in the American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (http://www.ajtmh.org/docserver/fulltext/10.4269/ajtmh.20-0230/tpmd200230.pdf?expires=1585948318&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=2D22753ABC9C520853445F297719D628) calling for more randomized controlled trials of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine. The drugs do “not show strong evidence at this point,” she adds.

A few preclinical studies (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0) have suggested these compounds could be effective at blocking infection with the novel coronavirus (officially called SARS-CoV-2), but there has been very little good evidence from clinical trials in patients with the illness it causes, COVID-19.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heres-what-we-know-about-the-most-touted-drugs-tested-for-covid-191/ (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heres-what-we-know-about-the-most-touted-drugs-tested-for-covid-191/)
Didn’t read the article yet but I will. Thanks for the link. 

Apparently it has to be taken with zinc for it to be effective.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 16, 2020, 03:27:01 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 16, 2020, 02:43:48 PM
as soon as the daily recoveries start outnumbering the daily new cases we will start to see

improvement

I think we are within 10 days of that happening
I think this is already happening,but since it wasn't in Hospitals or treatment wasn't sought it's not a stat.I've had quite a few folks say they think they have already had it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 16, 2020, 03:31:43 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 16, 2020, 03:27:01 PM
I think this is already happening,but since it wasn't in Hospitals or treatment wasn't sought it's not a stat.I've had quite a few folks say they think they have already had it
Youre probably right but I can only analyze the data presented
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 16, 2020, 03:34:09 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 16, 2020, 03:23:13 PM
If you’re living in Detroit with your family, there’s a 99% chance you’re poor as shit and have nowhere else to go.
Here is a virus case map for Michigan which shows the Detroit area as being the vast majority of cases


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/michigan-coronavirus-cases.html (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/michigan-coronavirus-cases.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 16, 2020, 03:49:05 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 16, 2020, 03:34:09 PM
Here is a virus case map for Michigan which shows the Detroit area as being the vast majority of cases


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/michigan-coronavirus-cases.html (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/michigan-coronavirus-cases.html)
That’s just showing the counties, not the cities. From what I understand, vast majority of cases are in the city of Detroit. Which is poor as shit. 

Most people in Michigan don’t live in Detroit. They live in the suburbs 30 mins to an hr outside in every direction. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 16, 2020, 03:58:49 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 16, 2020, 03:49:05 PM
That’s just showing the counties, not the cities. From what I understand, vast majority of cases are in the city of Detroit. Which is poor as shit.

Most people in Michigan don’t live in Detroit. They live in the suburbs 30 mins to an hr outside in every direction.
Im not disputing that the poorer sections suffer the most

sad but true
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 16, 2020, 04:07:14 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 16, 2020, 03:27:01 PM
I think this is already happening,but since it wasn't in Hospitals or treatment wasn't sought it's not a stat.I've had quite a few folks say they think they have already had it
Well, it has also been flu season, so a lot of folks who had "something" may think it was COVID-19.  My wife had what we assumed was a very hard flu back in February.  Lasted about 2 1/2 weeks, and she was really down.  Now we suspect that it might have been COVID.
She'll get tested for antibodies at some point, and we'll find out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 16, 2020, 04:07:24 PM
outdoor physical activity exception???

if it's important enough that you can't plant a garden or drive to your vacation home or take a boat out on a lake ......... why is it not important enough to go jogging?


WTF logic is that???
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 16, 2020, 04:07:43 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 16, 2020, 03:58:49 PM
Im not disputing that the poorer sections suffer the most

sad but true
My point was that if the vast majority of cases are in the city of Detroit- which is still by far the largest city in Michigan at about 700,000 residents- a far cry from the nearly 2 million residents it once had in the 1950s- then banning people from going to their vacation homes up north isn’t going to do much- seeing as 99.9% of the residents that live in the city of Detroit are pretty much poor as dirt and don’t have vacation homes up north.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 16, 2020, 04:09:20 PM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 16, 2020, 03:10:31 PM
From what I have read/heard, no one is considered recovered unless they have had 2 consecutive negative Covid tests at least 24 hrs apart. And being as testing is hard to come by, it is next to impossible to be tested for it once you have passed the 14 day quarantine period. Therefore, the official number of recovered will stagger far behind the number of infections. It is just another way to pad the numbers.
so, you don't have to be tested to be on the list of COVID, but you need 2 tests to be recovered???
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on April 16, 2020, 04:50:57 PM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 16, 2020, 03:10:31 PM
From what I have read/heard, no one is considered recovered unless they have had 2 consecutive negative Covid tests at least 24 hrs apart. And being as testing is hard to come by, it is next to impossible to be tested for it once you have passed the 14 day quarantine period. Therefore, the official number of recovered will stagger far behind the number of infections. It is just another way to pad the numbers.
Well, I think it's to make sure that people don't mistakenly think they are virus free, not to pad numbers.  It's pretty common in all sorts of medical tests.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 16, 2020, 04:56:59 PM
This timeline of events is enlightening.  Nobody can claim they were in front of this-and it really makes it clear why the world leaders are coming down on WHO/CCP

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/from-new-york-to-canada-to-the-white-house-initial-coronavirus-responses-havent-aged-well
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2020, 05:03:03 PM
It is normal for politicians to seek to place blame on someone else for anything bad (and vice versa).  IMHO, there should be time for this in the future, not now, when perhaps we should focus on what we can do NOW instead of what should have been done then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 16, 2020, 05:16:37 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 16, 2020, 05:03:03 PM
It is normal for politicians to seek to place blame on someone else for anything bad (and vice versa).  IMHO, there should be time for this in the future, not now, when perhaps we should focus on what we can do NOW instead of what should have been done then.
Yes- like approving more funds for the PPP loans for small businesses to keep people on their payroll
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 16, 2020, 05:27:22 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 16, 2020, 05:03:03 PM
It is normal for politicians to seek to place blame on someone else for anything bad (and vice versa).  IMHO, there should be time for this in the future, not now, when perhaps we should focus on what we can do NOW instead of what should have been done then.
Amen. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 16, 2020, 05:49:13 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 16, 2020, 04:09:20 PM
so, you don't have to be tested to be on the list of COVID, but you need 2 tests to be recovered???
... the ones who aren't tested can't recover. Because they're dead. 

(And the two test thing is about double checking to make sure they don't say "you're cured" and then you go see old relatives with tragic results, which seems prudent)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 16, 2020, 05:55:12 PM
so we're going to have a million cases - 30,000 dead - 230,000 recovered?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 16, 2020, 06:14:11 PM
Why not?  China only has... like... 3,000 dead or something.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 16, 2020, 06:16:53 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 16, 2020, 06:14:11 PM
Why not?  China only has... like... 3,000 dead or something.
Only 3,000 dead, but the big 3 mobile phone service providers in China have lost 21 million subscribers since this thing broke out. Hmmmm.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 16, 2020, 06:29:35 PM
I wouldn't focus at all on the recovered numbers. 

I see three numbers that are key:



But "recovered" cases seems to be a completely useless number for the reasons discussed... 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 16, 2020, 06:37:05 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 16, 2020, 06:16:53 PM
Only 3,000 dead, but the big 3 mobile phone service providers in China have lost 21 million subscribers since this thing broke out. Hmmmm.
18 million disappeared and took their cell phones with them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 16, 2020, 06:46:42 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 16, 2020, 06:37:05 PM
18 million disappeared and took their cell phones with them

In China, if the government murders 20 million citizens because they were trying to leak info about the global pandemic spreading from their home country, are those considered "COVID deaths" or nah?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 16, 2020, 06:53:07 PM
I haven't trusted China's numbers since I started following this thing. They're clearly bullshit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 16, 2020, 07:06:24 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 16, 2020, 06:46:42 PM
In China, if the government murders 20 million citizens because they were trying to leak info about the global pandemic spreading from their home country, are those considered "COVID deaths" or nah?
not in China, but the USA might add them to our numbers
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 16, 2020, 07:14:03 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 16, 2020, 06:53:07 PM
I haven't trusted China's numbers since I started following this thing. They're clearly bullshit.
China, Japan, Russia, Iran.  All pure fantasy.

Hopefully Japan is coming around now that the Olympics are officially canceled.  I guess we'll see.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 16, 2020, 11:59:37 PM
Not sure if this was already posted?  The guidelines, milestones, and phases, for "Opening Up America Again"

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/?fbclid=IwAR2K2jlBPzoisIKRf0IN5aFBfPBmUz35NyYkDzhtDvsVcYZw1RmtR5_tANg#phase-one (https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/?fbclid=IwAR2K2jlBPzoisIKRf0IN5aFBfPBmUz35NyYkDzhtDvsVcYZw1RmtR5_tANg#phase-one)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 17, 2020, 12:15:27 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 16, 2020, 06:29:35 PM
  • That said, NY just added ~3.8K on Tuesday for people who died at home rather than in a hospital
Unfortunately we can't know how many of these cases were from something else.Where either the patient didn't want to risk it or that decision was made for them - even if they had another injury/affliction.Please keep posting your findings.3.8 could be also from the week end spike that utee talked about.But that still jumps out and demands attention
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 17, 2020, 12:15:45 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 16, 2020, 11:59:37 PM
Not sure if this was already posted?  The guidelines, milestones, and phases, for "Opening Up America Again"

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/?fbclid=IwAR2K2jlBPzoisIKRf0IN5aFBfPBmUz35NyYkDzhtDvsVcYZw1RmtR5_tANg#phase-one (https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/?fbclid=IwAR2K2jlBPzoisIKRf0IN5aFBfPBmUz35NyYkDzhtDvsVcYZw1RmtR5_tANg#phase-one)


Hmmmm, those Proposed State or Regional Gating Criteria read as strict to me.

On the downside, they incentivize those downward trajectories, so we'll get a mess of counter questioning contrarianism soon enough.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 17, 2020, 12:17:14 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 17, 2020, 12:15:27 AM
Unfortunately we can't know how many of these cases were from something else.Where either the patient didn't want to risk it or that decision was made for them - even if they had another injury/affliction.Please keep posting your findings.3.8 could be also from the week end spike that utee talked about.But that still jumps out and demands attention
The decision here is to stay home and try to ride it out?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 17, 2020, 12:19:07 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 16, 2020, 07:14:03 PM
Hopefully Japan is coming around now that the Olympics are officially canceled.  I guess we'll see.
You'd think being intelligent and forward thinking they would not play loose with the numbers.Unless they don't want to induce panic on their very densely populated Island
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 17, 2020, 12:21:05 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 17, 2020, 12:19:07 AM
You'd think being intelligent and forward thinking they would not play loose with the numbers.Unless they don't want to induce panic on their very densely populated Island

Yeah that might be... bad... for them.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 17, 2020, 12:26:51 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 17, 2020, 12:17:14 AM
The decision here is to stay home and try to ride it out?
I got nothing,I may try that if the situation unfolded.According to a friends daughter - an ER nurse her hospital has plenty of beds.He I trust and pretty certain he was being blunt.But I was just watching PBS/BBC news and just walking into that quarentine unit-from the looks of it - would scare a stronger man than I to death.I'd prolly trust to providence and my own exertions for survival - hope it doesn't get to that for anyone
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 17, 2020, 12:32:42 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 17, 2020, 12:15:45 AM
Hmmmm, those Proposed State or Regional Gating Criteria read as strict to me.

On the downside, they incentivize those downward trajectories, so we'll get a mess of counter questioning contrarianism soon enough.

You anticipating accusations of "gaming the data" just to open up the economy?  Could be, I suppose. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 17, 2020, 12:43:48 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 17, 2020, 12:32:42 AM
You anticipating accusations of "gaming the data" just to open up the economy?  Could be, I suppose.
I mean, we have accusations of gaming the data now, and the payoff seems somewhat illusory/less grounded. We have people very strongly looking for reasons not to believe the current data. And in a number of cases, it appears one side or another has taken up that outlook as part of its cause. 

And since that last part is the case, I've little doubt there will be a counterswing. It will probably be as poorly founded as some of the stuff we've already seen, maybe more so.

(I think there's a weird emotional weight being put on the data, not unlike the way certain things in politics get treated with similar emotion toward things in sports. But that's another factor)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 03:02:33 AM
I'm just glad non-essential travel for a bunch of untested people is back up.  What could go wrong?!?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 17, 2020, 08:36:25 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 16, 2020, 05:49:13 PM
... the ones who aren't tested can't recover. Because they're dead.

(And the two test thing is about double checking to make sure they don't say "you're cured" and then you go see old relatives with tragic results, which seems prudent)
WRONG!


My sister and brother in law both tested positive for the virus. They both did their 14 day quarantine and now are allowed to leave the house for the essentials. However, neither are listed as "recovered" because neither have been given the 2 tests. They were not eligible for testing again. Don't know why, just know that they have not been tested since while asking to be tested. Therefore, they do not count in the "Recovered" statistic. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 17, 2020, 08:42:57 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 16, 2020, 06:29:35 PM
I wouldn't focus at all on the recovered numbers.

I see three numbers that are key:


  • Deaths. No matter what you look at regarding test rates, test availability, etc, that's the one that's really hard to falsify. (That said, NY just added ~3.8K on Tuesday for people who died at home rather than in a hospital).
  • Cases. This of course is much more dependent on test rates, availability, etc. So it's not especially reliable. But assuming that day-to-day testing protocols aren't changing TOO quickly, it gives you a rough idea of growth of the infected population.
  • Serious/critical cases. This is actually reported here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries)  -- I'm not sure how accurate it is, unfortunately. But if you are trying to understand which confirmed cases are most likely to result in deaths, tracking that might be meaningful.

But "recovered" cases seems to be a completely useless number for the reasons discussed...


I beg to differ, but Covid related deaths are VERY easy to falsify. Dr. Birx herself said that one does not have to test positive for the virus, just show some of the symptoms prior to death and they will be considered to have died from Covid. 

The question is, how many people died FROM Covid vs how many died WITH Covid? Sure, there are those that had underlying conditions that if not for Covid, would have survived. I am not arguing that. But the way the government is tracking this thing, all you have to do is have a cough, fever or soar throat before you die and you are considered to have died FROM Covid. 

My question is, those symptoms could also be contributed to Influenza. Why are these people considered to have died from Covid and NOT Influenza? It is very curious that with Covid being the hot topic these days, the number of deaths from Influenza are considerably lower than previous years. Coincidence? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2020, 08:46:41 AM
AS tests are in short supply, "we" shouldn't test people who rather obviously have the disease when the course of treatment would not change as a result.

Influenza deaths could be down because of distancing etc.

One hopes anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 17, 2020, 08:50:58 AM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 17, 2020, 08:36:25 AM
WRONG!


My sister and brother in law both tested positive for the virus. They both did their 14 day quarantine and now are allowed to leave the house for the essentials. However, neither are listed as "recovered" because neither have been given the 2 tests. They were not eligible for testing again. Don't know why, just know that they have not been tested since while asking to be tested. Therefore, they do not count in the "Recovered" statistic.
They are if one assumes recovery after 14 days of course you have to consider any deaths in that number

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 17, 2020, 09:03:50 AM
as an example on day 1 there are 30 new cases

on the 14th day later the data lists 10 recovered plus 6 deaths one can assume the recovered number is 

low by 14 and for data sake add that to the recovered number
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 17, 2020, 09:07:24 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 17, 2020, 09:03:50 AM
as an example on day 1 there are 30 new cases

on the 14th day later the data lists 10 recovered plus 6 deaths one can assume the recovered number is

low by 14 and for data sake add that to the recovered number
I mean... you COULD do that... but nobody really is.

Which was kind of the point-- illustrating that the recovered numbers aren't really being reported, or celebrated, at all.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 17, 2020, 09:11:49 AM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 17, 2020, 08:36:25 AM
WRONG!


My sister and brother in law both tested positive for the virus. They both did their 14 day quarantine and now are allowed to leave the house for the essentials. However, neither are listed as "recovered" because neither have been given the 2 tests. They were not eligible for testing again. Don't know why, just know that they have not been tested since while asking to be tested. Therefore, they do not count in the "Recovered" statistic.
Hmmm, well first and foremost, I'm happy your sister and brother-in-law are OK. That stands out far more than how they count in large-scale statistics. God bless.

I wonder what pool the "recovered" draws from. Maybe the high-end hospitalizations?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 17, 2020, 09:12:42 AM
if you track the daily numbers which I have since Feb 27th when we were at 60

the current number of recovered listed as 57844 for the US is too low by 185,114 

so the true number of active cases is not 585,205 for the US but closer to 400,000

more importantly one can compare the daily new cases to the daily recovered to see 

whether were are gaining or losing 

currently we are at about a break even point but the trend shows we will be in a gaining

position within the next 10 days
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2020, 09:19:49 AM
My son in Texas had it, or had every classic symptom, had no means to get tested.  A visitor to their office earlier was tested positive, so it's 99% certain he had it.

His case would not be counted anywhere, he has recovered now after self quarantine.  My step daughter in France had the classic symptoms and was tested negative, and then her MD told her the test result didn't mean anything, she is largely recovered now.

I don't trust any of the numbers beyond being maybe a general notional idea of how things are going.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 17, 2020, 09:27:19 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 17, 2020, 09:07:24 AM
I mean... you COULD do that... but nobody really is.

Which was kind of the point-- illustrating that the recovered numbers aren't really being reported, or celebrated, at all. 
I wonder how much of this is data presentation. Like literally the way it looks when the data is presented.

Having a high standard for "recovered" seems like a choice, but not a particularly meaningful one. That is unless some emotional weight is put behind it, or it's always posted next to the "cases" number. But it seems a great deal of emotional weight is being put behind all the numbers. 

I wonder if it would be worth tracking cases under quarantine and cases no longer under quarantine. I wonder how tight the reporting would be with that. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 17, 2020, 09:28:00 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 17, 2020, 09:19:49 AM
My son in Texas had it, or had every classic symptom, had no means to get tested.  A visitor to their office earlier was tested positive, so it's 99% certain he had it.

His case would not be counted anywhere, he has recovered now after self quarantine.  My step daughter in France had the classic symptoms and was tested negative, and then her MD told her the test result didn't mean anything, she is largely recovered now.

I don't trust any of the numbers beyond being maybe a general notional idea of how things are going. 
you have a valid point but you can only address reported cases
These unreported cases will become known when we test for antibodies
hopefully in the near future
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2020, 09:37:55 AM
As the protocol for reporting cases is evolving, I don't think the relative figures are reliable.  The same is true for cause of death reportage.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 17, 2020, 09:44:53 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 17, 2020, 09:37:55 AM
As the protocol for reporting cases is evolving, I don't think the relative figures are reliable.  The same is true for cause of death reportage.



Agreed.  They're really no more useful than being "directionally correct" and even then, maybe not so much.

But we're going to be basing our reopening of the country on those numbers, so.... well.... there you have it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2020, 10:10:31 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 17, 2020, 12:15:27 AM
Unfortunately we can't know how many of these cases were from something else.Where either the patient didn't want to risk it or that decision was made for them - even if they had another injury/affliction.Please keep posting your findings.3.8 could be also from the week end spike that utee talked about.But that still jumps out and demands attention
Here's the definition: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-deaths-confirmed-probable-daily-04142020.pdf (https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-deaths-confirmed-probable-daily-04142020.pdf)

Quote
A death is classified as confirmed if the decedent was a New York City resident who had a positive SARS CoV-2 (COVID-19) laboratory test.

A death is classified as probable if the decedent was a New York City resident (NYC resident or residency pending) who had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the death certificate lists as a cause of death “COVID-19” or an equivalent.

A death is classified as not known to be confirmed or probable COVID-19 if the decedent died in New York City (NYC resident or residency pending) had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) and the death certificate does not list COVID-19 or an equivalent as a cause of death.

As new information becomes available, some deaths previously classified as probable or not known to be confirmed or probable COVID-19 may be reclassified as laboratory-confirmed
Those 3.8K were "probable" as in the coroner had enough circumstantial evidence to list COVID-19 on the death certificate.

It's not the weekend spike. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 17, 2020, 10:26:56 AM
Just had to cancel some work previously booked.Was going to have Kitchen Cabinets and countertops refaced/replaced.They called this morning.But because of containment of the Kitchen/Dinette with visqueen and drop cloths I pushed back installment into July.Unless there was HEPA filtration and HAZMET cleaning I'm not willing to roll the dice.At least in July I'll know more and can open up windows and the sliding glass door.Wished I did this with a friend like I initially wanted to
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2020, 11:54:58 AM
Some interesting stuff in a gallery from today's Tribune, from 1918 (Spanish Flu).


https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-historical-spanish-influenza-chicago-tribune-20200415-ybhhqnznwfb6zjtcwdopshzbim-photogallery.html

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2020, 12:13:15 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 17, 2020, 08:46:41 AM
AS tests are in short supply, "we" shouldn't test people who rather obviously have the disease when the course of treatment would not change as a result.

Influenza deaths could be down because of distancing etc.

One hopes anyway.
especially if you've already tested positive and know just want to know if you've recovered, which some boob has determined you need two of these unreliable as hell tests

the testing is BullSh!# to me.

it's been said to be unreliable - strike 1
what do you do differently if tested or not?  - nothing?  You're sick, have symptoms.  Stay home.  Try not to make anyone else sick - strike 2
you can be counted as having COVID or dies from COVID if you were tested or not - then who cares - strike 3
Seems to me there are tons of folks with symptoms that are being tested, many multiple times
3.4 million tests - 666,000 positive
I understand these tests and numbers can project how bad things will get and how many hospital beds and ventilators we might need.  I guess that is very important
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2020, 12:15:21 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 17, 2020, 10:26:56 AM
Just had to cancel some work previously booked.Was going to have Kitchen Cabinets and countertops refaced/replaced.They called this morning.But because of containment of the Kitchen/Dinette with visqueen and drop cloths I pushed back installment into July.Unless there was HEPA filtration and HAZMET cleaning I'm not willing to roll the dice.At least in July I'll know more and can open up windows and the sliding glass door.Wished I did this with a friend like I initially wanted to
the kitchen is fine

save the money for football trips in the fall
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 17, 2020, 12:40:04 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 17, 2020, 08:50:58 AM
They are if one assumes recovery after 14 days of course you have to consider any deaths in that number


But that is not how they are arriving at the number of recovered. To be considered recovered, you have to have 2 consecutive negative tests at least 24 hours apart. If one cannot get tested, they cannot be considered "Recovered". That is the rub. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 17, 2020, 12:44:10 PM
Yes- the data is hard to count on from here or anywhere.  

You rarely see Influenza as the cause of death/ more often complications from Influenza.  Also- if I understand it correctly insurance payments to hospitals can be substantially higher and more likely if it is ruled Covid-19.
So now there is financial motivation to code it that way. 

So when the data is suspect- that leaves emotion and intuition for decision making.  General not the best and almost always polarizing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 17, 2020, 12:44:29 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 17, 2020, 09:11:49 AM
Hmmm, well first and foremost, I'm happy your sister and brother-in-law are OK. That stands out far more than how they count in large-scale statistics. God bless.

I wonder what pool the "recovered" draws from. Maybe the high-end hospitalizations?
Thank you. They are doing fine but are still "distancing" themselves as much as possible to avoid any possibility of infecting anyone. 

As too the pool of recovered, again from what I have read/heard, a person that was tested positive for the virus, then has to have 2 consecutive tests that result as negative. And as testing is at a premium, not a lot of people are getting access to the test if they are not showing symptoms. Obviously, someone that is coming off of quarantine and NOT showing symptoms, will be denied testing. 

But it does beg the question, how did 50 some thousand get additional testing? I wish I knew. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 17, 2020, 12:57:17 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 17, 2020, 12:15:21 PM
the kitchen is fine

save the money for football trips in the fall
Wish I could I'm over a barrel as the have the down payment
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 17, 2020, 01:00:31 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 17, 2020, 12:44:10 PM
Yes- the data is hard to count on from here or anywhere. 

You rarely see Influenza as the cause of death/ more often complications from Influenza.  Also- if I understand it correctly insurance payments to hospitals can be substantially higher and more likely if it is ruled Covid-19.
So now there is financial motivation to code it that way.

So when the data is suspect- that leaves emotion and intuition for decision making.  General not the best and almost always polarizing.
And I think this is helping to drive the fear people are having. I have talked with people that say they will NOT come out of their house until a vaccine is available. I told them that could take well over a year, they didn't care. 

But that is also leading to people willing to suffer through other medical issues instead of "risking" going to the hospital. I have heard stories that people in NY City had died of heart attacks at home because they were afraid to go the hospital. 

My point is that these bogus numbers are causing irrational fear in people that may be leading to other deaths. 

In general, the CDC estimates that about 50-60 MILLION Americans contract the seasonal flu every year. Does anyone believe ALL of those people are tested for the flu? No. In reality, they only test a few hundred thousand people a year. The 50-60 Million is extrapolated from the number tested and taking into account the number of people that may get the flu, but never see a doctor and so on. So when the mortality rate of the flu is advertised to be around 0.1%, people feel pretty safe that even if the get the flu, they will most likely survive.

But now we are getting numbers from the CDC saying that only about 600,000 people have gotten the Covid virus and of those, 30 some thousand have died. That puts the mortality rate somewhere around 2% or 20 times that of the seasonal flu. THAT scares the crap out of people that simply look at the headlines and don't dive into the numbers. 

If the government/CDC did the same extrapolation for Covid as they do the seasonal flu, my guess is that the number of actual infections would be in the several millions which in turn would bring the mortality rate more in line with the seasonal flu. And who knows, maybe after this is pretty much over and the numbers come in, they will. But that does nothing to help to quell the fears of people today. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 17, 2020, 01:01:56 PM
how have I not seen this before? :043:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3tnH4FGbd0
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2020, 01:03:55 PM
Yeah, the wife and I had the flu a few years back and never reported anything.  We just waited and got better.

It was pretty bad though, clearly not a cold.  I don't know what numbers on this will be accurate, maybe antibody testing of a rep sample.  Maybe we discover many of us already had it and didn't notice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2020, 01:05:26 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 17, 2020, 12:57:17 PM
Wish I could I'm over a barrel as the have the down payment
get Moose and Rocko from Caddyshack to lend a hand
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2020, 01:08:06 PM
If there's money to be had in the future because of class action lawsuits or other means - we extort China

I want COVID-19 somewhere on my medical file or death certificate!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 17, 2020, 01:15:02 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 17, 2020, 01:05:26 PM
get Moose and Rocko from Caddyshack to lend a hand
One of my favorite movies.  "Moose, Rocko. See if you can help the judge find his wallet!" :57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 17, 2020, 01:15:46 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 17, 2020, 01:08:06 PM

I want COVID-19 somewhere on my medical file or death certificate!
You want It?Well stop that.Just curious how much of our pharmacueticals do we gtet from china?How much can we trust the content moving forward?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2020, 01:19:07 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 17, 2020, 01:15:46 PM
You want It?Well stop that.Just curious how much of our pharmacueticals do we gtet from china?How much can we trust the content moving forward
For a lot of basics, the figure is astoundingly high, ibuprofen, amoxicillin, etc.  I was shocked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 17, 2020, 01:29:04 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 17, 2020, 01:19:07 PM
For a lot of basics, the figure is astoundingly high, ibuprofen, amoxicillin, etc.  I was shocked.
80+% of all of the drugs in the US market are manufactured in China I believe.

And about 90%+ of all the chemicals for the drugs in the US market are manufactured...in China.

We are so depended upon China for so much of our shit that it is disgusting. You can thank US lawmakers for that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 17, 2020, 01:31:53 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 17, 2020, 01:01:56 PM
how have I not seen this before? :043:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3tnH4FGbd0
😂😂😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 17, 2020, 01:32:29 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 17, 2020, 01:31:53 PM
😂😂😂😂
Thanks M- I needed that belly laugh
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 01:39:16 PM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 17, 2020, 01:00:31 PM
And I think this is helping to drive the fear people are having. I have talked with people that say they will NOT come out of their house until a vaccine is available. I told them that could take well over a year, they didn't care.

But that is also leading to people willing to suffer through other medical issues instead of "risking" going to the hospital. I have heard stories that people in NY City had died of heart attacks at home because they were afraid to go the hospital.

My point is that these bogus numbers are causing irrational fear in people that may be leading to other deaths.

In general, the CDC estimates that about 50-60 MILLION Americans contract the seasonal flu every year. Does anyone believe ALL of those people are tested for the flu? No. In reality, they only test a few hundred thousand people a year. The 50-60 Million is extrapolated from the number tested and taking into account the number of people that may get the flu, but never see a doctor and so on. So when the mortality rate of the flu is advertised to be around 0.1%, people feel pretty safe that even if the get the flu, they will most likely survive.

But now we are getting numbers from the CDC saying that only about 600,000 people have gotten the Covid virus and of those, 30 some thousand have died. That puts the mortality rate somewhere around 2% or 20 times that of the seasonal flu. THAT scares the crap out of people that simply look at the headlines and don't dive into the numbers.

If the government/CDC did the same extrapolation for Covid as they do the seasonal flu, my guess is that the number of actual infections would be in the several millions which in turn would bring the mortality rate more in line with the seasonal flu. And who knows, maybe after this is pretty much over and the numbers come in, they will. But that does nothing to help to quell the fears of people today.
The CDC has undergone mission creep, and it now gets into many things that are not diseases.  When you start doing things beyond your charter, you don't do your essential missions as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 01:42:51 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 17, 2020, 01:29:04 PM
80+% of all of the drugs in the US market are manufactured in China I believe.

And about 90%+ of all the chemicals for the drugs in the US market are manufactured...in China.

We are so depended upon China for so much of our shit that it is disgusting. You can thank US lawmakers for that.
You can also thank the masses for wanting the cheapest possible stuff, regardless of the methods it's created or where.  If the masses didn't blindly want the cheapest thing, generics wouldn't exist, we'd source meat in more ethical ways, and all of our drugs wouldn't come from China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2020, 01:44:56 PM
we'd source meat in more ethical ways


Huh?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 01:45:57 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 01:42:51 PM
You can also thank the masses for wanting the cheapest possible stuff, regardless of the methods it's created or where.  If the masses didn't blindly want the cheapest thing, generics wouldn't exist, we'd source meat in more ethical ways, and all of our drugs wouldn't come from China.
I guess the masses need a Leader to tell them what to do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 01:47:13 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 17, 2020, 01:44:56 PM
we'd source meat in more ethical ways


Huh?
Factory farms exist to produce the cheapest meat possible......
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 01:47:34 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 01:45:57 PM
I guess the masses need a Leader to tell them what to do.
Yes, a leader would be nice.  Do you know of any?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2020, 01:51:32 PM
Consumers do want the best value possible, and part of that equation is price.  My step son would only buy "cage free eggs" even though they are about 3x the price.  OK with me, but I buy regular eggs.  A lot of folks buy "organic" which I think often is a scam, and I buy "inorganic" produce.  I've had "grass fed" beef and it sucks.  When my house was built, I'm sure a lot of trees were cut down to make the timber.  I am guilty of buying generic ibuprofen and naproxen.

Our food chain is highly dependent on "industrial farming and ranching" and the Haber process.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2020, 01:52:28 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 01:47:34 PM
Yes, a leader would be nice.  Do you know of any?
One key aspect of this country is NOT to have a leader, especially if you use the German term.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 01:54:47 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 01:47:34 PM
Yes, a leader would be nice.  Do you know of any?
I thought perhaps you had one in mind.
I can do without a Leader telling the masses what to do.
I'll live with the imperfections of self-government.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2020, 01:54:59 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 01:47:34 PM
Yes, a leader would be nice.  Do you know of any?
Me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 17, 2020, 01:56:21 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2020, 01:54:59 PM
Me.
You get my vote right now over any of these other yahoo’s 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 01:56:37 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 17, 2020, 01:52:28 PM
One key aspect of this country is NOT to have a leader, especially if you use the German term.
Or the Italian term that means the same thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 17, 2020, 02:07:03 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 01:42:51 PM
You can also thank the masses for wanting the cheapest possible stuff, regardless of the methods it's created or where.  If the masses didn't blindly want the cheapest thing, generics wouldn't exist, we'd source meat in more ethical ways, and all of our drugs wouldn't come from China.
Yeah, no. That is just completely wrong. Where did you get this abortion of a hot take?

The masses didn't spend literally hundreds of millions of dollars if not billions lobbying congress and President Clinton to permanently normalize trade relations with China and push for them to join the WTO. Oh yeah, that was Wall Street and US multi-nationals. Clinton is maybe the single largest reason for the rise of China at the expense of America. Not trying to lay the blame too much on his feet, seeing as how almost all of these politicians are just puppets of Wall Street and US multi-nationals.

The masses had absolutely nothing to do with it. That's just a stupid thing to say. The masses have no clue what permanent normalized trade relations or the WTO is. None.

It had everything to do with profit. Cheaper labor and no extra expenses having to deal with government regulatory agencies like OSHA, EEOC, EPA. Pay your workers 1/10th the price you were paying them in America, save millions if not billions not having to comply with any work safety or environmental regulations- sell your goods for the same price you were going to sell them at anyway- and call it a day. It's not a coincidence that corporations have made record profits ever since 2000 when normalized trade relations with China were pushed through congress. It was done so by design. That was the intention of the US multi-nationals and Wall Street. What these dumbasses were too stupid to realize is that they were playing the short game to make a quick buck and sell out their own countries, while China was playing the long game in order to grow, steal IP, steal technology and eventually replace the USA on the world stage.

20 years ago China was a 3rd world backwater. Anyone thinking they were a rival to the US would be laughed at. Today China is the single greatest threat to the US that has probably ever existed. The Soviet Union was a piper tiger that had nowhere near the kind of economy or manufacturing capabilities of China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 17, 2020, 02:07:24 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/NznW7H3.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2020, 02:08:28 PM
Our Founders were almost as afraid of a democracy as they were a monarchy.  If you want a Leader, you need a totalitarian kind of government.  If you want representative government of some sort, it's a recipe for chaos, different advice, partisan rhetoric, and the works.  It's the worst possible form of government ...


I don't want a leader.  I'd like a free flow of information and the ability to express myself in public without fear of reprisal.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 17, 2020, 02:09:00 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/gXHdzyi.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 17, 2020, 02:09:47 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 17, 2020, 02:07:24 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/NznW7H3.png)
LMAO
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 17, 2020, 02:13:51 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 01:54:47 PM
I thought perhaps you had one in mind.
I can do without a Leader telling the masses what to do.
I'll live with the imperfections of self-government.
Meanwhile, in Los Angeles, it appears the natives are restless, and tired of their Leaders telling them what to do:


https://twitter.com/BillFOXLA/status/1250928772787793922 (https://twitter.com/BillFOXLA/status/1250928772787793922)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2020, 02:16:42 PM
The traffic on coming looks fairly light to me.

The traffic on the right LOOKS heavy but that could be distance compression by the camera.

And being in a car should be OK of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 17, 2020, 02:18:15 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 17, 2020, 02:16:42 PM
The traffic on coming looks fairly light to me.

The traffic on the right LOOKS heavy but that could be distance compression by the camera.

And being in a car should be OK of course.
Not really.  I saw pics of same freeway from a couple of weeks ago, and it was empty.  

This is most definitely a case of far more people being out and about, than were before.

But I certainly agree that they're in the cars and that's AOK.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 02:19:55 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 17, 2020, 02:07:03 PM

It had everything to do with profit. 
This is the only sentence you needed to type.  See, we agree.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2020, 02:20:53 PM
I'd need to see same time of day etc. but maybe so.  We have not driven anywhere today.  Traffic here has been light throughout, which is nice.  Going to Costco means about 6 miles of freeway.

I don't know where people are going though.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 02:21:13 PM
People are "over it", and we're in like the 3rd inning of the baseball game.  This is brutally stupid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2020, 02:26:23 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 17, 2020, 02:20:53 PM
I'd need to see same time of day etc. but maybe so.  We have not driven anywhere today.  Traffic here has been light throughout, which is nice.  Going to Costco means about 6 miles of freeway.

I don't know where people are going though. 
Going West on "the 10" means they are headed for Santa Monica - and the beaches. At least I think it's West, based on the place taking off in the background.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 17, 2020, 02:28:04 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 02:19:55 PM
This is the only sentence you needed to type.  See, we agree.
No, we don't agree.

The masses have nothing to do with it. And the masses are the ones who ultimately got screwed while a very select few have gone on to make record amounts of profit. All by killing millions of jobs in the US and sending them to China and suppressing wages for those same jobs that remain in the US.

Cheaper goods for consumers have nothing to do with it. Most of the time the goods aren't being sold any cheaper- and the ones that are sold cheaper HAVE to be sold cheaper or no one would f***king buy them because millions of jobs have been lost and the jobs that remained- well those wages have been suppressed by lack of employment competition (compare to the 60's or 70's or 80's) and by the threat of out-sourcing (how they continually beat up unions and workers in negotiations).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 02:30:58 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 17, 2020, 02:28:04 PM
No, we don't agree.

The masses have nothing to do with it. And the masses are the ones who ultimately got screwed while a very select few have gone on to make record amounts of profit. All by killing millions of jobs in the US and sending them to China and suppressing wages for those same jobs that remain in the US.

Cheaper goods for consumers have nothing to do with it. Most of the time the goods aren't being sold any cheaper- and the ones that are sold cheaper HAVE to be sold cheaper or no one would f***king buy them because millions of jobs have been lost and the jobs that remained- well those wages have been suppressed by lack of employment competition (compare to the 60's or 70's or 80's) and by the threat of out-sourcing (how they continually beat up unions and workers in negotiations).
Sigh.
Why is our economy tanking during this virus?  What's causing the financial standstill?  That should be plenty to go on.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 17, 2020, 02:40:56 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2020, 02:26:23 PM
Going West on "the 10" means they are headed for Santa Monica - and the beaches. At least I think it's West, based on the place taking off in the background.

No that's I10 eastbound into downtown. 

Didn't look like that a week ago.  People have had it.

Edit: Oh, are you talking about the light traffic?  Yes that is westbound.  Heavy traffic is eastbound.  People are leaving their homes in the suburbs and headed to the city center.

Not sure what they're going to do there, but there you have it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 17, 2020, 02:42:28 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 17, 2020, 02:09:00 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/gXHdzyi.png)
This is very good. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 02:43:33 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2020, 11:54:58 AM
Some interesting stuff in a gallery from today's Tribune, from 1918 (Spanish Flu).


https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-historical-spanish-influenza-chicago-tribune-20200415-ybhhqnznwfb6zjtcwdopshzbim-photogallery.html
That one killed from 500,000 to 750,000 out of a population of only about 75 million.  We've got a long way to go to top that.
Had they imposed the restrictions then that we have now, that death toll would have been much lower.
But there was a war on.  Army units with guys falling out from the flu while marching down to the docks nevertheless loaded troopships and headed off to France.  One troopship had (IIRC) some 80 deaths from the flu during and immediately after the crossing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2020, 02:48:54 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 02:43:33 PM
That one killed from 500,000 to 750,000 out of a population of only about 75 million.  We've got a long way to go to top that.
Had they imposed the restrictions then that we have now, that death toll would have been much lower.
But there was a war on.  Army units with guys falling out from the flu while marching down to the docks nevertheless loaded troopships and headed off to France.  One troopship had (IIRC) some 80 deaths from the flu during and immediately after the crossing.
So, can we say the Spanish Flu killed all the Americans WHO died in the war then?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2020, 02:50:53 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 01:47:34 PM
Yes, a leader would be nice.  Do you know of any?
I'm not supposed to name names here  ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2020, 02:52:02 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 17, 2020, 02:40:56 PM
No that's I10 eastbound into downtown. 

Didn't look like that a week ago.  People have had it.

Edit: Oh, are you talking about the light traffic?  Yes that is westbound.  Heavy traffic is eastbound.  People are leaving their homes in the suburbs and headed to the city center.

Not sure what they're going to do there, but there you have it.


I got turned around. I'm used to big water always being to the East... habits.

So they are all headed back to LA, from a day AT the beach. Got it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 03:00:55 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2020, 02:26:23 PM
Going West on "the 10" means they are headed for Santa Monica - and the beaches. At least I think it's West, based on the place taking off in the background.
I agree.  That looks like the picture is taking looking to the west, and that's the way the heavier traffic is headed.  The sun is behind the photographer, over his/her right shoulder, like it would be mid-morning.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVwxFgdVcAAmg1m?format=jpg&name=900x900)

Looking at Google Maps, there's a Robertson Blvd. exit at Culver City for westbound traffic.  There's a nearby exit for eastbound traffic, but it doesn't exit directly onto Robertson Blvd.

And LAX is to the south (left), which would explain the airplane in the upper left climbing out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 17, 2020, 03:03:20 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2020, 02:48:54 PM
So, can we say the Spanish Flu killed all the Americans WHO died in the war then?
Per some online encyclopedia I found, illness, mostly the flu, accounted for more than 54 percent of American losses in WWI.

They did not have the public discussion of the accounting however, first because they lacked message boards/social media, and second because the government worked to ensure it was not written about.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 03:04:29 PM
LA is certainly a paved jungle.  Phoenix is laid out like an anal retentive person was building it on a video game.  LA is laid out like a deranged crackhead was given a crayon and a map, and they paved wherever his lines went.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 03:05:06 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 17, 2020, 03:03:20 PM
and second because the government worked to ensure it was not written about. 
Wait, I thought only China did stuff like that...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2020, 03:06:18 PM
Factory Farms???

you're not a PETA person are you?

I've been out of the meat packing industry for over 20 years now, but.......... even back then the producers.  Feed lots for cattle and hog confinements for hogs were designed to be decent for the animals.

Happy animals with less stress produce better quality meat than mistreated animals.  Even once these animals are unloaded at the slaughter facility the process is designed to calm them down and make things easy for them.

Tough to produce enough meat for a city the size of Phoenix with folks having a steer and a hog in the pen behind the house or a free range area in west Texas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 03:08:23 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 17, 2020, 03:03:20 PM
Per some online encyclopedia I found, illness, mostly the flu, accounted for more than 54 percent of American losses in WWI.

They did not have the public discussion of the accounting however, first because they lacked message boards/social media, and second because the government worked to ensure it was not written about.
Yes.  The Wilson administration censored the information, lest the news interfere with the war effort.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 17, 2020, 03:08:46 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 03:00:55 PM
I agree.  That looks like the picture is taking looking to the west, and that's the way the heavier traffic is headed.  The sun is behind the photographer, over his/her right shoulder, like it would be mid-morning.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVwxFgdVcAAmg1m?format=jpg&name=900x900)

Looking at Google Maps, there's a Robertson Blvd. exit at Culver City for westbound traffic.  There's a nearby exit for eastbound traffic, but it doesn't exit directly onto Robertson Blvd.

And LAX is to the south (left), which would explain the airplane in the upper left climbing out.


Guys, no sleuthing necessary.  The tweet is labeled. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2020, 03:10:48 PM
Every combatant government attempted to minimize news about the 1918 flu for obvious reasons.  It's called the Spanish flu because they were allowed to write about it.

It did kill more people than died in the war, perhaps 1/3 to half the world's population was infected and ten percent died (or those sick).

Imagine something that lethal with delayed onset of symptoms.

Don't.

Most paved roads followed whatever paths were already there obviously, some of which were literally cow paths.

Atlanta is hilly enough to have a nongrid base of roads outside near downtown.  Driving in LA was nice because of the grid in the valley floor.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 03:14:34 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 17, 2020, 03:06:18 PM

Tough to produce enough meat for a city the size of Phoenix
No, PETA is nuts.  
I think the decency and comfort of the animals is relative.  
But the key is this idea of "enough meat".  What does that mean?  Right now, it means producing enough meat for there to be enough for everyone who wants it and at a low-enough price they're willing to buy it.  If more was spent providing the meat, the cost would go up and people would eat less of it.  Can't have that - we have stockholders!
.
Anyway, the larger issue is land and water usage for meat production.  They are real issues that will worsen over time, probably sooner than climate change.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2020, 03:16:18 PM
so, are the poor people, I keep hearing about, eating too much meat because the price is too low?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 03:16:43 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 17, 2020, 03:10:48 PM
Most paved roads followed whatever paths were already there obviously, some of which were literally cow paths.

This is a smart way to create sidewalks on school campuses and other large lots.  Wait a few weeks, see where the people create paths, and then pave them.  Too often, builders dictate where people walk when it should be the other way around.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 03:16:51 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 17, 2020, 03:08:46 PM
Guys, no sleuthing necessary.  The tweet is labeled. :)
Labels are sometimes erroneous.
A newspaper headline is a label of sorts.  And headlines are wrong all the time.
Maybe it's because of L.A.'s newly improved air quality, but that looks like early-mid-morning light more than mid-late afternoon light.  And why would the heavy traffic be heading inbound to downtown L.A. in the afternoon?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 03:19:13 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 17, 2020, 03:16:18 PM
so, are the poor people, I keep hearing about, eating too much meat because the price is too low?
When did I cite poor people when discussing this?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 03:23:57 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2020, 02:48:54 PM
So, can we say the Spanish Flu killed all the Americans WHO died in the war then?
Nope.

Just the ones who died of the flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2020, 03:27:28 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 03:05:06 PM
Wait, I thought only China did stuff like that...
King Woodrow Wilson!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 03:28:21 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 03:05:06 PM
Wait, I thought only China did stuff like that...
Well, we have Americans--like you--who believe in totalitarian government and censorship of the news.  Sometimes they get into positions of power.  Woodrow Wilson was in power in 1918.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2020, 03:30:35 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 17, 2020, 03:08:46 PM
Guys, no sleuthing necessary.  The tweet is labeled. :)

Yeah, but that doofus could be wrong. But in this case, he's not. Checking on a map of the area confirms it for me, as the roadway takes a turn to the left before the Robertson exit there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2020, 03:31:00 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 03:28:21 PM
Well, we have Americans--like you--who believe in totalitarian government and censorship of the news.  Sometimes they get into positions of power.  Woodrow Wilson was in power in 1918.
KING Woodrow, thank you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 17, 2020, 03:33:01 PM
For whatever it's worth, and probably that's not much, our county publishes its COVID-19 death rate with a column for co-morbidities, i.e., people who died from something in addition to COVID-19. I doubt we're the only ones.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 17, 2020, 03:33:49 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 03:14:34 PM
No, PETA is nuts. 
Peta is full of idiots. They'd rescue lobsters from a supermarket, then release them in a forest.They live is constant dread that someone, somewhere is enjoying himself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2020, 03:34:36 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on April 17, 2020, 03:33:01 PM
For whatever it's worth, and probably that's not much, our county publishes its COVID-19 death rate with a column for co-morbidities, i.e., people who died from something in addition to COVID-19. I doubt we're the only ones. 
We have that too, but it just started. I doubt we will see the true real data for quite some time. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 17, 2020, 03:40:00 PM
The American civil war had 620,000 casualties

Approximately 2/3 of these casualties was the result of disease

so it stands to reason  that an American war fought 50 years

later would have a huge number of disease related casualties
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 17, 2020, 03:50:45 PM
Today Cindy thought she saw some ants in the kitchen.She sprayed everything down and cleaned thououghly.Tomorrow I'm putting a few more in the bathroom 😜
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 17, 2020, 03:53:44 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 03:16:51 PM
Labels are sometimes erroneous.
A newspaper headline is a label of sorts.  And headlines are wrong all the time.
Maybe it's because of L.A.'s newly improved air quality, but that looks like early-mid-morning light more than mid-late afternoon light.  And why would the heavy traffic be heading inbound to downtown L.A. in the afternoon?
That's a great question!  And probably far more worthy of delving into for investigation, than questioning the person who took the picture and posted it and lives in LA, while, you know, you DON'T actually live there! :)

But definite kudos on finally asking a relevant question!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 03:54:26 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2020, 03:30:35 PM
Yeah, but that doofus could be wrong. But in this case, he's not. Checking on a map of the area confirms it for me, as the roadway takes a turn to the left before the Robertson exit there.
I just talked to my stepson who lives in L.A.  Based on the look of it, he said westbound.  Then he called back and said, on further review, eastbound.
He said that based on the cars being mostly older models, those are people in "essential jobs."  Inbound, heading east.
He said that the traffic is probably stacked up because of an accident.
He just sent me a couple of pics.  One is of LAX, where he and his GF drove yesterday.  Looks abandoned.  The other is of the snow-covered mountains of Riverside County, visible from Long Beach.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2020, 03:54:54 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 17, 2020, 02:18:15 PM
Not really.  I saw pics of same freeway from a couple of weeks ago, and it was empty. 

This is most definitely a case of far more people being out and about, than were before.

But I certainly agree that they're in the cars and that's AOK.
To be fair, there are certain stretches on the 5 and 10 freeways that ALWAYS look like that. Literally unless it's 3:00 AM, it's a traffic jam. 

I just checked in with my wife, and she said that traffic has still been completely dead all week down here in Orange County. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 03:56:19 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 17, 2020, 03:40:00 PM
The American civil war had 620,000 casualties

Approximately 2/3 of these casualties was the result of disease

so it stands to reason  that an American war fought 50 years

later would have a huge number of disease related casualties
Deaths, 320.  Casualties include wounded, MIA, POW, and (I think) those sick if the illness was acquired in the combat zone.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 03:57:53 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2020, 03:27:28 PM
King Woodrow Wilson!!
And defender of the KKK.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 17, 2020, 03:59:01 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 17, 2020, 03:54:54 PM
To be fair, there are certain stretches on the 5 and 10 freeways that ALWAYS look like that. Literally unless it's 3:00 AM, it's a traffic jam.

I just checked in with my wife, and she said that traffic has still been completely dead all week down here in Orange County.
Folks in Orange County are just hanging in their swimming pools all day long, counting those dollars coming in from their Wall Street bankers who are busy swindling small businesses out of their stimulus checks.

Why on earth would Orange County folk mingle with the unwashed masses?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 17, 2020, 04:00:52 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 17, 2020, 03:59:01 PM

Why on earth would Orange County folk mingle with the unwashed masses?
They lived in Austin awhile- when it was weird?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 04:03:39 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 17, 2020, 03:53:44 PM
That's a great question!  And probably far more worthy of delving into for investigation, than questioning the person who took the picture and posted it and lives in LA, while, you know, you DON'T actually live there! :)

But definite kudos on finally asking a relevant question!
As I've posted upthread, my stepson who DOES actually live there confirmed that the heavy traffic is eastbound.  He even gave a reasonable guesstimate about why the heavy traffic was heading eastbound.
As far as questioning on-the-scene reporters, I do that all the time, as I've often seen them be wrong.  And I'm not sure that the guy who took the picture is the same guy who put the headline on the tweet.
Remember the TV reporter sitting in a kayak covering the flooding in some hurricane, and a couple of guys walk past him in the background and the water is about 4" deep?
Lots of reasons not to trust that bit of "news."
I trust my stepson though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 17, 2020, 04:03:58 PM
By the way, did I ever mention that I lived in a hotel in Orange County for about a year, back when I was working my first job for Eaton Semiconductor? I was busy testing our ion implantation equipment at Rockwell.  I lived in the Sheraton on... Macarthur I tihnk?  Just down from John Wayne (which is my favorite airport in the US), and right next to the Benihana.

I sang a lot of Elvis and Frank Sinatra at the karaoke bar in that Benihana.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 17, 2020, 04:05:13 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 04:03:39 PM
As I've posted upthread, my stepson who DOES actually live there confirmed that the heavy traffic is eastbound.  He even gave a reasonable guesstimate about why the heavy traffic was heading eastbound.
As far as questioning on-the-scene reporters, I do that all the time, as I've often seen them be wrong.  And I'm not sure that the guy who took the picture is the same guy who put the headline on the tweet.
Remember the TV reporter sitting in a kayak covering the flooding in some hurricane, and a couple of guys walk past him in the background and the water is about 4" deep?
Lots of reasons not to trust that bit of "news."
I trust my stepson though.
That's fair.  

I do not.

But you have quite successfully derailed the conversation... so... good for you I guess?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2020, 04:05:20 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 03:54:26 PM
I just talked to my stepson who lives in L.A.  Based on the look of it, he said westbound.  Then he called back and said, on further review, eastbound.
He said that based on the cars being mostly older models, those are people in "essential jobs."  Inbound, heading east.
He said that the traffic is probably stacked up because of an accident.
He just sent me a couple of pics.  One is of LAX, where he and his GF drove yesterday.  Looks abandoned.  The other is of the snow-covered mountains of Riverside County, visible from Long Beach.
I'm very familiar with that area - we visit a lot for family and been on that road many times. I just got myself turned around. Oops..
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2020, 04:05:47 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 17, 2020, 03:59:01 PM
Folks in Orange County are just hanging in their swimming pools all day long, counting those dollars coming in from their Wall Street bankers who are busy swindling small businesses out of their stimulus checks.

Why on earth would Orange County folk mingle with the unwashed masses?
I don't know... I try to avoid Los Angeles County, and the city itself, as much as humanly possible. 

BTW I agree with @CWSooner (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1544) that I wouldn't be surprised if traffic were stacked up due to an accident. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2020, 04:09:04 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 17, 2020, 04:03:58 PM
By the way, did I ever mention that I lived in a hotel in Orange County for about a year, back when I was working my first job for Eaton Semiconductor? I was busy testing our ion implantation equipment at Rockwell.  I lived in the Sheraton on... Macarthur I tihnk?  Just down from John Wayne (which is my favorite airport in the US), and right next to the Benihana.

I sang a lot of Elvis and Frank Sinatra at the karaoke bar in that Benihana.
The Benihana is still there... Hopefully it will be once the world reopens...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 17, 2020, 04:13:42 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 17, 2020, 04:09:04 PM
The Benihana is still there... Hopefully it will be once the world reopens...

Let us all hope! :)

Looks like that Sheraton is a Hyatt now.  I spent a year there (made it back to Austin for all football weekends in the Fall), and then went back off and on for a few years after that to provide support for our field office in Tustin.  Also spent a lot of time at Motorola MOS-10 in Irvine over the same span.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 04:26:21 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 17, 2020, 04:05:13 PM
That's fair. 

I do not.

But you have quite successfully derailed the conversation... so... good for you I guess?
Heh!  I derailed a "conversation" that I didn't even know was on the rails to start with.
Here's a story my stepson-in-L.A. linked.

Coronavirus pandemic: Los Angeles traffic lights modified to reduce speeding on deserted streets
The change is part of an effort to reduce speeding on L.A.'s relatively empty streets amid stay-at-home orders.

LOS ANGELES (KABC) -- Angelenos who are still driving to work during the coronavirus pandemic may have noticed that traffic lights in Los Angeles have been adjusted.

The change is part of an effort to reduce speeding on the city's relatively empty streets amid stay-at-home orders.

The lights are operating indefinitely on "nighttime" mode, which allows them to operate independently to serve vehicles as they arrive.

Motorists' average speeds in Los Angeles have increased by as much as 30 percent in the past month, according to some reports.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 17, 2020, 04:35:39 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 04:26:21 PM
Heh!  I derailed a "conversation" that I didn't even know was on the rails to start with.
Here's a story my stepson-in-L.A. linked.

Coronavirus pandemic: Los Angeles traffic lights modified to reduce speeding on deserted streets
The change is part of an effort to reduce speeding on L.A.'s relatively empty streets amid stay-at-home orders.

LOS ANGELES (KABC) -- Angelenos who are still driving to work during the coronavirus pandemic may have noticed that traffic lights in Los Angeles have been adjusted.

The change is part of an effort to reduce speeding on the city's relatively empty streets amid stay-at-home orders.

The lights are operating indefinitely on "nighttime" mode, which allows them to operate independently to serve vehicles as they arrive.

Motorists' average speeds in Los Angeles have increased by as much as 30 percent in the past month, according to some reports.


That's fascinating.  Thanks for posting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 05:43:15 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 03:28:21 PM
Well, we have Americans--like you--who believe in totalitarian government and censorship of the news. 
Vert der ferk?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 06:10:59 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 05:43:15 PM
Vert der ferk?
You said you wanted a Leader to tell the masses what to do, and you have previously said that you want to hear lies from the news media if they are in a good cause.
Sounds like you believe in totalitarian government.  What have I missed?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 07:28:47 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 06:10:59 PM
You said you wanted a Leader to tell the masses what to do, and you have previously said that you want to hear lies from the news media if they are in a good cause.
Sounds like you believe in totalitarian government.  What have I missed?
Definitely didn't say either of those things, but okay.
I said having a leader would be nice.  As in we don't have much of a leader now.  
No idea where you got the 'lies from the media' thing.  
.
Any more words you want to put in my mouth for me?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 08:08:32 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 07:28:47 PM
Definitely didn't say either of those things, but okay.
I said having a leader would be nice.  As in we don't have much of a leader now. 
No idea where you got the 'lies from the media' thing. 
.
Any more words you want to put in my mouth for me?
I capitalized "Leader" to make the point.  Does that not make your antennae go up and read "Fuhrer" and "Duce"?
You did indeed say that you wished that the media would lie to us for our own good.  I called you on it at the time.
This isn't a Drive-By Shooting Gallery.  You can't just say stuff and then deny that you said it or meant it or whatever.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 08:44:21 PM
I don't recall saying that, and you probably missed my point like you did with the 'it'd be nice if we had a leader right now' thing.  But you can be the winner and feel good about it.  I don't care.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2020, 08:46:03 PM
This country is not meant to have a "Leader".  It's not part of the design and original intent.

If we had one, I'd be very worried.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 09:19:28 PM
Some of you are pretending like the president position isn't a leadership position.  What's it like in your world?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 09:19:51 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 08:44:21 PM
I don't recall saying that, and you probably missed my point like you did with the 'it'd be nice if we had a leader right now' thing.  But you can be the winner and feel good about it.  I don't care.
Capital L "Leader," Afro.  You know the difference between that and "leader," which is what you keep posting.  You know you do, and I know you know you do.
But, if all you're saying now is that you wish we had a better president, well, OK.
But, also, you did say that you wished the media were telling us lies to make us fear the coronavirus more than were fearing it.
I'm not clever enough to make this shit up, believe me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 09:37:42 PM
Here's the deal, Afro.  These are the relevant posts.

OAM: Today at 01:42:51 PM
You can also thank the masses for wanting the cheapest possible stuff, regardless of the methods it's created or where.  If the masses didn't blindly want the cheapest thing, generics wouldn't exist, we'd source meat in more ethical ways, and all of our drugs wouldn't come from China.

CWSooner: Today at 01:45:57 PM
I guess the masses need a Leader to tell them what to do.

OAM: Today at 01:47:34 PM
Yes, a leader would be nice.  Do you know of any?

CD to OAM: Today at 01:52:28 PM
One key aspect of this country is NOT to have a leader, especially if you use the German term.

CWS to OAM: Today at 01:54:47 PM
I thought perhaps you had one in mind.
I can do without a Leader telling the masses what to do.
I'll live with the imperfections of self-government.

CWS to CD: Today at 01:56:37
Or the Italian term that means the same thing.

CD: Today at 02:08:28 PM
Our Founders were almost as afraid of a democracy as they were a monarchy.  If you want a Leader, you need a totalitarian kind of government.  If you want representative government of some sort, it's a recipe for chaos, different advice, partisan rhetoric, and the works.  It's the worst possible form of government ...
I don't want a leader.  I'd like a free flow of information and the ability to express myself in public without fear of reprisal.

It's obvious that I was talking about a Fuhrer, and it seems very obvious to me that CD was talking about a Fuhrer.


You are not a dumbass.  So how is it that you didn't understand that when you were saying that you wanted a leader in the context of all of that, that a reasonable person might think that you wanted not just a better president, but a strongman, a capital-L Leader to tell the poor dumb masses what to do?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2020, 10:30:53 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 09:19:51 PM
I'm not clever enough to make this shit up, believe me.
I believe you, but I've been posting with you much longer
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 10:44:59 PM
Yes, I understood what you meant and took it on another tangent.  You then made a leap that was false.  It's not a whole big thing.  
I looked for the 'wish the media lied to us' but couldn't find it.  Sheesh.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 17, 2020, 10:51:39 PM
Sunlight destroys virus quickly, new govt. tests find, but experts say pandemic could last through summer
Jana Winter and Sharon Weinberger-
Yahoo News
April 17, 2020, 3:07 PM CDT

Preliminary results from government lab experiments show that the coronavirus does not survive long in high temperatures and high humidity, and is quickly destroyed by sunlight, providing evidence from controlled tests of what scientists believed — but had not yet proved — to be true.

A briefing on the preliminary results, marked for official use only and obtained by Yahoo News, offers hope that summertime may offer conditions less hospitable for the virus, though experts caution it will by no means eliminate, or even necessarily decrease, new cases of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. The results, however, do add an important piece of knowledge that the White House’s science advisers have been seeking as they scramble to respond to the spreading pandemic.

The study found that the risk of “transmission from surfaces outdoors is lower during daylight” and under higher temperature and humidity conditions. “Sunlight destroys the virus quickly,” reads the briefing.

While that may provide some good news about the outlook for outdoor activities, the Department of Homeland Security briefing on the results cautions that enclosed areas with low humidity, such as airplane cabins, “may require additional care to minimize risk of transmission.”

In a statement to Yahoo News, the DHS declined to answer questions about the findings and strongly cautioned against drawing any conclusions based on unpublished data.

“The department is dedicated to the fight against COVID-19, and the health and safety of the American people is its top priority. As policy, the department does not comment on allegedly leaked documents,” the DHS said in a statement. “It would be irresponsible to speculate, draw conclusions, or to inadvertently try to influence the public based upon a document that has not yet been peer-reviewed or subjected to the rigorous scientific validation approach.”

The results are contained in a briefing by the DHS science and technology directorate, which describes experiments conducted by the National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center, a lab created after the 9/11 terrorist attacks to address biological threats.

While the DHS describes the results as preliminary, they may eventually make their way into specific recommendations. “Outdoor daytime environments are lower risk for transmission,” the briefing states.

Simulated sunlight “rapidly killed the virus in aerosols,” the briefing says, while without that treatment, “no significant loss of virus was detected in 60 minutes.”

The tests were performed on viral particles suspended in saliva. They were done indoors in environments meant to mimic various weather conditions.

While the results of these tests have not been previously made public, Harvey Fineberg, head of the National Academies Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats, broadly described plans to conduct the experiments in an April 7 letter to the White House.

In that letter, addressed to President Trump’s top science adviser Kelvin Droegemeier, Fineberg wrote that the DHS lab “is well suited for the kinds of studies they have planned, and the scope and relevance are noteworthy. In particular, they plan to create simulated infected body fluids, including saliva and lower respiratory secretions.”

Droegemeier’s office did not respond to a request for comment on whether it has received the latest results from the DHS. The National Academies also did not respond to a request for comment.

While the lab results are new, scientists for many weeks have predicted, based on available data on the disease’s spread, that warmer, wetter climates would be less hospitable to the spread of the coronavirus. An early analysis by scientists observed that the virus was spreading more slowly in countries with warmer climates.

“We are not saying that at higher temperatures, the virus will suddenly go away and everything would be fine and you are going out,” Qasim Bukhari, a computational scientist at MIT and a co-author of the analysis, told Yahoo News in an interview. “No, we are not saying it. We are just seeing that there is a temperature- and humidity-related dependency, but I think many people now have started to realize this.”

Bukhari said that since he and his colleagues published that analysis, the numbers on the coronavirus’s spread continue to support their contention. “They are doing a lot of tests now in India. Also, when you look at the numbers in Pakistan it’s the same. There are more than 5,000 cases in Pakistan right now,” he said. “But the increase is not as rapid as you see in other countries.”

The question of the effects of sunlight and heat on the coronavirus has been particularly fraught, because there has been a tendency to misinterpret the relationship between good weather and disease spread. Early on, some politicians tried to encourage people to go outside, including to beaches, arguing that sunlight would kill the virus. The problem, however, is that without widespread immunity, people can still transmit the coronavirus to others, even in warm weather.

The real question now, Bukhari said, is whether enough people have already been infected that the summer temperatures won’t prevent continued transmission.

“So let’s say 50 percent of the population is already infected, and then those temperatures arrive and then those humidity levels arrive, then what difference can those temperatures and humidity levels be? Probably none. That’s the thing.”

While the new lab results are important, the science behind how sunlight kills the virus is fairly well established, says Arthur Anderson, former director of the Office of Human Use and Ethics at the United States Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases at Fort Detrick, Md.

“[Ultraviolet] light breaks DNA into fragments. If the virus is floating around in the air and there’s bright sunlight, the UV component in sunlight will break the DNA or the RNA into pieces,” he told Yahoo News.

Infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci, who has become the leading face of the White House response, has provided cautious statements about what the summer months might mean for the coronavirus, saying recently, “It’s almost certainly going to go down a bit.” He has stopped far short, however, of saying that good weather alone would have an impact.

Yet the lab results may ultimately provide at least some basis for optimism.

“Does this give a little more hope about the virus potentially decreasing?” said Dr. Kavita Patel, a Yahoo medical contributor and nonresident fellow at the Brookings Institution. “Yes. I would say even Dr. Fauci has alluded to that.”

Colds and flus don’t disappear in the summer, even if they are less common, Patel noted. “We do have cases of the flu in the summer,” she said. “That’s why all of us in medicine are being a little more guarded.”

The lab’s work was done in a controlled environment, according to the DHS briefing, and tested how long the coronavirus survives on stainless steel in a droplet of saliva from a cough or sneeze under conditions related to temperature, humidity and sunlight. The lab is now doing additional testing, such as experimenting with low-tech techniques for sterilization of protective equipment, which would include using rice cookers, clothes steamers and electric pressure cookers.

The National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center, which conducted the experiments, has traditionally kept a low profile because of its classified work on biological warfare defense and bioterrorism. Fineberg, in his letter to the White House, did not go into detail on the planned experiments, noting that the lab shares its findings with the interagency task force on the coronavirus.

It is unclear for now whether the center intends to publish in a peer-reviewed journal or choose some other route for making its results known. Patel said she could understand government concerns about releasing preliminary results, but in general she leans toward openness.

“As a clinical doctor, we want to learn as fast as possible anything that works clinically. You want to be able in the first line to say: This is preliminary, with caveats. But why hold back the information?” she said.

It may be that the government wants to control how the message is released, she suggested. “I would say in a global pandemic, that’s less of a priority.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 17, 2020, 11:02:56 PM
Weird story. I'm probably reading too much into the power of numbers element of it, but I thought it was interesting, free speech issues and such.

https://reason.com/2020/04/17/a-teenager-posted-about-her-covid-19-infection-on-instagram-a-deputy-threatened-to-arrest-her-if-she-didnt-delete-it/ (https://reason.com/2020/04/17/a-teenager-posted-about-her-covid-19-infection-on-instagram-a-deputy-threatened-to-arrest-her-if-she-didnt-delete-it/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2020, 11:21:42 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 09:19:28 PM
Some of you are pretending like the president position isn't a leadership position.  What's it like in your world? 
in my world, since 1976 and I'm sure LONG before that............. it's a poor bastage behind a podium taking cheap shots
scapegoat
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2020, 11:38:40 PM
I know we're all realists and pessimists and what-not, but who the president is matters.  It's not just some illusion.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on April 17, 2020, 11:58:24 PM
Respectfully disagree.  Way too much obsession with the Executive Branch this term, it's not healthy.  Orange man kicks a red ball every day and people go chasing after it, every single time.   Let the World 🌎  do its own spinning in the words of Mayor E.B. Farnum.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 18, 2020, 12:22:51 AM
Lots of good SBNation writers just got furloughed/pre-laid off, so that's unfortunate. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 18, 2020, 12:25:12 AM
Quote from: MarqHusker on April 17, 2020, 11:58:24 PM
Respectfully disagree.  Way too much obsession with the Executive Branch this term, it's not healthy.  Orange man kicks a red ball every day and people go chasing after it, every single time.  Let the World 🌎  do its own spinning in the words of Mayor E.B. Farnum.
True, but it's not about Trump, it's about the presidency.  Hell, maybe the president is akin to being a baseball manager - you just do the consensus thing and look smart to most, and just try not to get in the way.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 18, 2020, 01:15:19 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 17, 2020, 11:02:56 PM
Weird story. I'm probably reading too much into the power of numbers element of it, but I thought it was interesting, free speech issues and such.

https://reason.com/2020/04/17/a-teenager-posted-about-her-covid-19-infection-on-instagram-a-deputy-threatened-to-arrest-her-if-she-didnt-delete-it/ (https://reason.com/2020/04/17/a-teenager-posted-about-her-covid-19-infection-on-instagram-a-deputy-threatened-to-arrest-her-if-she-didnt-delete-it/)
Wow!
The county and the school system are going to owe that family a lot of money.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 18, 2020, 01:17:34 AM
If the whole country were to come to the conclusion that the POTUS is not something akin to a king and more akin to a chief magistrate, it would be a serendipitous side-effect of the coronavirus pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 18, 2020, 01:18:35 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 17, 2020, 11:21:42 PM
in my world, since 1976 and I'm sure LONG before that............. it's a poor bastage behind a podium taking cheap shots
scapegoat
"Not going to do it wouldn't be prudent!"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 18, 2020, 01:18:56 AM
(https://dynaimage.cdn.cnn.com/cnn/q_auto,w_1100,c_fill,g_auto,h_619,ar_16:9/http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.cnn.com%2Fcnnnext%2Fdam%2Fassets%2F200417095209-coronavirus-matterhorn-flags-trnd-0416-story-body.jpg)

Story Here (https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/coronavirus-matterhorn-flags-us-trnd/index.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 18, 2020, 01:31:37 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 17, 2020, 11:02:56 PM
Weird story. I'm probably reading too much into the power of numbers element of it, but I thought it was interesting, free speech issues and such.

https://reason.com/2020/04/17/a-teenager-posted-about-her-covid-19-infection-on-instagram-a-deputy-threatened-to-arrest-her-if-she-didnt-delete-it/ (https://reason.com/2020/04/17/a-teenager-posted-about-her-covid-19-infection-on-instagram-a-deputy-threatened-to-arrest-her-if-she-didnt-delete-it/)
Hmm more like two wrongs don't make a right.I get free speech and all that but if she had a negative test result(at the time) then I sort of get the response.Could be viewed along the lines of yelling fire in a crowded theater with people on edge as this was breaking
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 18, 2020, 01:34:41 AM
Quote from: MarqHusker on April 17, 2020, 11:58:24 PM
 Let the World 🌎  do its own spinning in the words of Mayor E.B. Farnum.
you don't mean PT Barnum do you?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2020, 08:37:04 AM
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/17/836811380/white-house-plan-for-re-opening-states-leaves-testing-question-unanswered (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/17/836811380/white-house-plan-for-re-opening-states-leaves-testing-question-unanswered)

How do folks here view this plan?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 18, 2020, 08:49:43 AM
it leaves a lot to interpretation - which is fine with me.  Each state can interpret it as they feel needed.

I'm not big on testing

I think young people at low risk should be allowed to go about their lives

folks that are at risk or just don't feel safe can stay home
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2020, 08:54:26 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 18, 2020, 08:49:43 AM
it leaves a lot to interpretation - which is fine with me.  Each state can interpret it as they feel needed.

I'm not big on testing

I think young people at low risk should be allowed to go about their lives

folks that are at risk or just don't feel safe can stay home

yep and after they do they can sleep in the back yard
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2020, 08:57:07 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 18, 2020, 01:31:37 AM
Hmm more like two wrongs don't make a right.I get free speech and all that but if she had a negative test result(at the time) then I sort of get the response.Could be viewed along the lines of yelling fire in a crowded theater with people on edge as this was breaking
it was definitely a violation of her civil rights and should be addressed 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 18, 2020, 09:00:40 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 18, 2020, 08:54:26 AM
yep and after they do they can sleep in the back yard
Well sure.  People that are older and at-risk should still go about being very careful.  That could quite possibly mean less or no interaction with their kids.  At this point everyone should be aware of the dangers, and taking steps to manage their risks, to a level they are comfortable with.

This thing isn't going away.  It'll never be contained.  We're going to have to learn to live with it among us.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2020, 09:03:39 AM
If this does not abate significantly over time, it will always pose a threat to the vulnerable obviously unless a vaccine is very effective and widely used.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 18, 2020, 09:09:25 AM
I've read that it's possible it will mutate and weaken.  There's some thought that it has already done so and some strains are weaker than others.  That would be a positive thing, though I believe it makes developing a vaccine more difficult.

I'm not an infectious disease specialist nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night-- 'cause they're all closed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 18, 2020, 09:10:26 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 18, 2020, 01:34:41 AM
you don't mean PT Barnum do you?
He does not. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2020, 09:17:31 AM
J&J says they can produce hundreds of millions of vaccines in a year IF the testing goes well.  That probably would build up effective herd immunity so R naught would be well under one.  

The scary thought is that another one can "pop up" any time, perhaps one more deadly and problematic.  Maybe we will learn from this one.

Maybe not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 18, 2020, 09:19:03 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 18, 2020, 01:31:37 AM
Hmm more like two wrongs don't make a right.I get free speech and all that but if she had a negative test result(at the time) then I sort of get the response.Could be viewed along the lines of yelling fire in a crowded theater with people on edge as this was breaking
I mean, if we live in a world where the cops can come by and threaten you with a citation unless you take down that instagram post, we won't have much of a leg to stand on with all those rights Northern Ohio talked about. The school could raise holy hell, given they have broad (perhaps overbroad) powers when it comes to school disruption. But a cop coming over, that gets to a dangerous spot.

Also, the "yelling fire in a crowded theater" thing is a great metaphor, but the history of the phrase links back to a pretty bad suppression of free speech. In that case, a person opposing the draft in WWI was charged with espionage. It's a kinda ugly situation and a lot of the precedent has been rolled back or changed since. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 18, 2020, 09:35:07 AM
some cops are not very bright
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 18, 2020, 09:46:38 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 18, 2020, 09:17:31 AM
J&J says they can produce hundreds of millions of vaccines in a year IF the testing goes well.  That probably would build up effective herd immunity so R naught would be well under one. 

The scary thought is that another one can "pop up" any time, perhaps one more deadly and problematic.  Maybe we will learn from this one.

Maybe not.

Yup, I think there's some real value in this current pandemic, in preparing us for "The Big One."  Imagine something as violently deadly as ebola, but as infectious as this current novel coronavirus.

Of course, I've also seen ID specialists note that the nature of those super-catastrophic diseases like ebola, is that they burn out their victim so quickly that transmission is severely inhibited.  So maybe we'll never see such a thing.  I sure hope not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2020, 09:50:20 AM
Quote from: MarqHusker on April 17, 2020, 11:58:24 PM
Respectfully disagree.  Way too much obsession with the Executive Branch this term, it's not healthy.  Orange man kicks a red ball every day and people go chasing after it, every single time.  Let the World 🌎  do its own spinning in the words of Mayor E.B. Farnum.
This guy, no matter if you like him, hate him, or are indifferent to him (me) was never, ever going to get a fair shake from the media, nor from the "other side". He's been under investigation for impeachment since day one, and still is. It's hard to "lead" under those conditions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2020, 09:50:48 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 18, 2020, 01:34:41 AM
you don't mean PT Barnum do you?
It's PJ Barnum, and why bring the Goophs into this?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 18, 2020, 10:00:35 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2020, 09:50:20 AM
This guy, no matter if you like him, hate him, or are indifferent to him (me) was never, ever going to get a fair shake from the media, nor from the "other side". He's been under investigation for impeachment since day one, and still is. It's hard to "lead" under those conditions.
his own "adopted" party doesn't even like him
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2020, 10:05:08 AM
Outsiders tend to get frozen out. That starts in pre-school.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2020, 10:15:12 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 18, 2020, 09:09:25 AM
I've read that it's possible it will mutate and weaken.  There's some thought that it has already done so and some strains are weaker than others.  That would be a positive thing, though I believe it makes developing a vaccine more difficult.

I'm not an infectious disease specialist nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night-- 'cause they're all closed.

if you think about it we dont even have a true flu vaccine else why does one have to get a flu shot year after year
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2020, 10:17:37 AM
Im a big fan of the herd immunity theory as it may be the only true way to deal with this thing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 18, 2020, 10:22:42 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2020, 09:50:48 AM
It's PJ Barnum, and why bring the Goophs into this?
Um no it's PT Barnum - "a sucker is born every minute" - like Corona swillers
Edit - my bad I just got it,except for the Corona swillers
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 18, 2020, 10:31:11 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 18, 2020, 09:46:38 AM
Yup, I think there's some real value in this current pandemic, in preparing us for "The Big One."  Imagine something as violently deadly as ebola, but as infectious as this current novel coronavirus.
 :o  If that happens,well then there will be just survivalists,Indian Tribes,Amish and Farmers left.The only precious metals will be lead...surrounded by a copper jacket
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 18, 2020, 11:43:21 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 18, 2020, 01:31:37 AM
Hmm more like two wrongs don't make a right.I get free speech and all that but if she had a negative test result(at the time) then I sort of get the response.Could be viewed along the lines of yelling fire in a crowded theater with people on edge as this was breaking
What you're basically saying is "understandably, the mob got angry."
That's exactly when it is most important for the law to protect her rights, not be the enforcer for the mob.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2020, 12:20:42 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 18, 2020, 10:15:12 AM
if you think about it we dont even have a true flu vaccine else why does one have to get a flu shot year after year
The influenza virus is known to mutate rapidly, so we need a new vaccine each year to compensate.  Corona virii generally do not mutate as much.

A vaccine can confer herd immunity.  That is why PH folks clamor for us all to get the flu vaccine each year.  It reduces R naught.

Probably within a decade we will face a much more lethal illness that spreads.  We're too interconnected now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 18, 2020, 12:25:10 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 18, 2020, 11:43:21 AM
What you're basically saying is "understandably, the mob got angry."
That's exactly when it is most important for the law to protect her rights, not be the enforcer for the mob.
Agree completely.

Her rights were clearly violated and it's a bunch of bulljive that the department isn't backing down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2020, 12:27:11 PM
Most perhaps understand that a pure democracy is "mob rule" in effect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2020, 12:38:52 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 18, 2020, 12:20:42 PM
The influenza virus is known to mutate rapidly, so we need a new vaccine each year to compensate.  Corona virii generally do not mutate as much.

A vaccine can confer herd immunity.  That is why PH folks clamor for us all to get the flu vaccine each year.  It reduces R naught.

Probably within a decade we will face a much more lethal illness that spreads.  We're too interconnected now.
No one has any idea about whether this virus will behave like the flu

But my point is we deal with the flu without vaccine that is one and done so why not coronavirus

herd immunity may be the only way
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2020, 12:58:10 PM
My point is that this is not a member of the influenza family.  To the extent it is similar to the corona family, it may not mutate as much as influenza virus, but we do not know for sure.  A vaccine can provide herd immunity without people getting sick.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 18, 2020, 01:22:25 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 18, 2020, 11:43:21 AM
What you're basically saying is "understandably, the mob got angry."
That's exactly when it is most important for the law to protect her rights, not be the enforcer for the mob.
Understand this happened in early march and she tested negative.I understand her concern but to say she had it when she may or may not have at one time is not being accurate.This needs to be taken in context of when it actually happened,the population was approaching stampede mode.People in health care/transporting goods(whether foods or meds)/operating Groceries or gas staions/Pharmacies etc.were coming home and finding shelves bare because of individuals like this no matter how innocent the tweet or post - that could escalate the situation.Many of those working had no choice but to come into work while everyone else you and I included cleared of the shelves during a potentially perilous period.Hey thanx precious while sounding an alarm that didn't need to be hit.I know of two people who absolutely felt the had it(not including MDoT here) one was my buddies 22 yrd old son who is a gymn rat.They never sought medical help nor did they stand up on a soap box and decree they were in the grasp of the plague.Had things  IMO got a little worse martial law could be declareded - how would that be for her rights?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2020, 01:35:45 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 18, 2020, 01:22:25 PM
Understand this happened in early march and she tested negative.I understand her concern but to say she had it when she may or may not have at one time is not being accurate.This needs to be taken in context of when it actually happened,the population was approaching stampede mode.People in health care/transporting goods(whether foods or meds)/operating Groceries or gas staions/Pharmacies etc.were coming home and finding shelves bare because of individuals like this no matter how innocent the tweet or post - that could escalate the situation.Many of those working had no choice but to come into work while everyone else you and I included cleared of the shelves during a potentially perilous period.Hey thanx precious while sounding an alarm that didn't need to be hit.I know of two people who absolutely felt the had it(not including MDoT here) one was my buddies 22 yrd old son who is a gymn rat.They never sought medical help nor did they stand up on a soap box and decree they were in the grasp of the plague.Had things  IMO got a little worse martial law could be declareded - how would that be for her rights?
It would still violate them

when a law officer comes to your house and threatens to arrest you for what you posted in social media there is a huge problem with the constitution and should not be tolerated
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 18, 2020, 01:36:33 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2020, 09:50:20 AM
This guy, no matter if you like him, hate him, or are indifferent to him (me) was never, ever going to get a fair shake from the media, nor from the "other side". He's been under investigation for impeachment since day one, and still is. It's hard to "lead" under those conditions.
That's true.

But you could say the much same thing about the 43rd president.  "Selected, not elected," "illegitimate president," and all that.
Yet 43 behaved much differently than 45 has.
Maybe one's character shows most clearly under pressure.
From Thomas Paine's The American Crisis, Issue No. 1, 23 December 1776, 3 days before the crossing of the Delaware and the capture of Trenton.
The familiar line: "These are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman."  Too familiar, I fear.  So much so that we seldom think of it.
But then this: "Voltaire has remarked that King William never appeared to full advantage but in difficulties and in action; the same remark may be made on General Washington, for the character fits him. There is a natural firmness in some minds which cannot be unlocked by trifles, but which, when unlocked, discovers a cabinet of fortitude; and I reckon it among those kind of public blessings, which we do not immediately see, that God hath blessed him with uninterrupted health, and given him a mind that can even flourish upon care."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 18, 2020, 01:55:08 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 18, 2020, 01:35:45 PM
It would still violate them

when a law officer comes to your house and threatens to arrest you for what you posted in social media there is a huge problem with the constitution and should not be tolerated
There is definately a lot of gray area here.If I knowling am spreading false information that could trigger a very dicey situation from the frying pan and into the fire then maybe I'm a dick who deserves a shit sandwich.I'm not defending the sheriff - if he is a goon but also perhaps you are looking at situation that has somewhat blown over.That AT THAT TIME he couldn't have known.And thankfully it didn't spin out of controll.There were people around here that were very upset they couldn't get the basic staples to everyday life because they were ordered into work.Then people safe in their home released from the hospital are sounding social alarms.Not cool,hope you never come into a situation where you are completely short sheeted of needed supplies/wares because of someone sounding false alarms - and in the end we know that's what it was.Under emegency protocol lets shoot for the greater good if that means not spreading false rumors - so be it.Maybe please with avery strong suggestion next time will suffice
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2020, 01:59:01 PM
Benjamin Franklin once said: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 18, 2020, 02:02:29 PM
Ben Franklin couldn't see Pandemics on social media either,apples/oranges
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 18, 2020, 02:08:41 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 18, 2020, 01:22:25 PM
Understand this happened in early march and she tested negative.I understand her concern but to say she had it when she may or may not have at one time is not being accurate.This needs to be taken in context of when it actually happened,the population was approaching stampede mode.People in health care/transporting goods(whether foods or meds)/operating Groceries or gas staions/Pharmacies etc.were coming home and finding shelves bare because of individuals like this no matter how innocent the tweet or post - that could escalate the situation.Many of those working had no choice but to come into work while everyone else you and I included cleared of the shelves during a potentially perilous period.Hey thanx precious while sounding an alarm that didn't need to be hit.I know of two people who absolutely felt the had it(not including MDoT here) one was my buddies 22 yrd old son who is a gymn rat.They never sought medical help nor did they stand up on a soap box and decree they were in the grasp of the plague.Had things  IMO got a little worse martial law could be declareded - how would that be for her rights?
But it did not.

The timeline, per the lawsuit:

March 22: Goes to hospital. Send home with inhaler, telling her she had the symptoms but they couldn't test at the time. 

Parents call the school. She goes to instagram and writes:  “Hey guys… sorry I’ve been on a long break.. I wont be back for a while longer due to me no[w] having the COVID-19 virus… I don’t want the attention its just the truth… I am now in self quarantine and am not allow[e]d to leave my room and have an inhaler since they said to go home… best of wishes. love you guys.”

Not highly responsible, but 16-year-olds are what they are

March 25: Goes to a better hospital as symptoms worsen. Family gets call from principal, reiterates situation. 
She's tested, negative, "The doctors told the Cohoons that Amyiah still likely had COVID-19 and had missed the window for testing positive."

March 26: Returns home and writes "I am finally home after being hospitalized for a day and a half. I am still on breathing treatment but have beaten the coronavirus. Stay home and be safe.”

The explanation was that "Sergeant Klump stated that Sheriff Konrath wanted the post removed because there were no confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the county at that time," again, per the lawsuit. 

If true, and obviously that's only one part of the story, it does not seem good nor does it seem particularly justified. The standard for what speech might inspire is justifiably high. People finding out there had been a grocery run likely doesn't get near that bar. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 18, 2020, 02:15:39 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2020, 09:50:20 AM
This guy, no matter if you like him, hate him, or are indifferent to him (me) was never, ever going to get a fair shake from the media, nor from the "other side". He's been under investigation for impeachment since day one, and still is. It's hard to "lead" under those conditions.
Perhaps hard, but I thought there was a path (this is more general prescriptions than spacific).

I thought in a country so divided, the key was always going to be to rise above. That meant not addressing the stupid things, and being very calm and boilerplate when dealing with things worth addressing. Leading a whole when taking a pugilistic attitude toward all the noise was going to raise the difficulty level a great deal. Basically, if you dwell on the shake you're getting, you won't lead well. Also being on Ps and Qs to some degree would be key, because if you're fighting an uphill battle, you're going to not want to give yourself setbacks. 

Basically, we all like Mike Leach, but in this kind of situation, you gotta be Paul Chryst. And you have to avoid the Gary Anderson moments. 

(I also found myself thinking that a leader in that spot, who could push though most anything he'd like, might fall on the sward of believing his ideals. If you feel you're in the right and you can, put them into practice, and when they work, the electorate will see their success, in theory)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2020, 02:28:34 PM
Sign me up for Paul Chryst please. Your post is really spot on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2020, 02:29:36 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 18, 2020, 02:28:05 PM
Thats hogwash


To date Madison Wisconsin where the girl lives has over 300 cases and 16 deaths

Did the law pay all of these folks a visit to keep them quiet
She lives in Oxford, WI.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 18, 2020, 02:33:04 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 18, 2020, 02:08:41 PM
But it did not.

The timeline, per the lawsuit:

I went off the article you posted


Amyiah Cohoon, 16, is a student at Westfield Area High School in Westfield, Wisconsin. According to this lawsuit , she and schoolmates went to Disney World and Universal Studios in Florida for a spring break trip in early March, right as the coronavirus was beginning to spread and businesses began to shut down. She and her classmates canceled the trip early and returned home.

There is alot of gray area,if she is talking to friends inprivate that's one thing if she's on a community board AFTER she tested negative - dick move.But there were no confirmed cases at that time.And the Sheriff shouldn't threaten anyone - I'm on board with that.Things could have gotten worse though.There are layer in this story that could have unfolded differently.had things ramped up(the sheriff couldn't know at that time)and we don't know what the hospital or law enforcement were up against at the time.Suffice to say it wasn't another day at the office.So maybe mom and dad could play parents and not friend.A lot of ERs were inundated with everything,a lot of ill people neededing procedures or attention were put on hold in anticipation of getting staem rolled.This isn't a Rodney King situation
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2020, 02:37:23 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2020, 02:29:36 PM
She lives in Oxford, WI.
Ok fine they have had over 10 cases same question

were these folks visited by the local police
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 18, 2020, 02:41:22 PM

You stated a little temporary safety.This is not that,those numbers are in the last month.That's not good but could be a lot worse.As we know now how many other illnesses are being shoehorned in here?And this was in March different circumstances,still she didn't test positive.No one said this isn't a thing but spreading false info at that time is hogwash - you're right
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2020, 02:49:37 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 18, 2020, 02:37:23 PM
Ok fine they have had over 10 cases same question

were these folks visited by the local police
Actually they have 3, but it matters not. I doubt the others were visited.


This whole thing smells funny to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 18, 2020, 02:56:28 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 18, 2020, 02:33:04 PM
I went off the article you posted


Amyiah Cohoon, 16, is a student at Westfield Area High School in Westfield, Wisconsin. According to this lawsuit , she and schoolmates went to Disney World and Universal Studios in Florida for a spring break trip in early March, right as the coronavirus was beginning to spread and businesses began to shut down. She and her classmates canceled the trip early and returned home.

There is alot of gray area,if she is talking to friends inprivate that's one thing if she's on a community board AFTER she tested negative - dick move.But there were no confirmed cases at that time.And the Sheriff shouldn't threaten anyone - I'm on board with that.Things could have gotten worse though.There are layer in this story that could have unfolded differently.had things ramped up(the sheriff couldn't know at that time)and we don't know what the hospital or law enforcement were up against at the time.Suffice to say it wasn't another day at the office.So maybe mom and dad could play parents and not friend.A lot of ERs were inundated with everything,a lot of ill people neededing procedures or attention were put on hold in anticipation of getting staem rolled.This isn't a Rodney King situation
After testing negative, she wrote "I am finally home after being hospitalized for a day and a half. I am still on breathing treatment but have beaten the coronavirus. Stay home and be safe.”

And by the time she was going to the hospital the first time, this thread was 33 pages long and Wisconsin was nine days removed from the governor ordering the closing of schools. 

So if by that point she was gonna start a panic, the people getting panicked were either dangerously not paying attention or dangerously thinking it wouldn't impact their community. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 18, 2020, 02:59:00 PM
It smells like "guilty until proven innocent."
Her failure to say "suspected" in front of "COVID-19" does not at all warrant the full might of the Oxford, WI, law enforcement to smash her down.  So many better ways to have handled it.  How about the mayor/county commissioner making a public announcement to clarify that point instead of sending the sheriff's goon deputy to make threats?
Our right to free speech is not there so that we can say, "God bless America, mom, and apple pie."  It is to protect our right to say unpopular things, and law enforcement is supposed to protect that right especially when the mob doesn't like what's being said, NOT to be the mob's enforcement arm.
If martial law had been declared, it might be a different matter.  But it hadn't been, so it wasn't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2020, 03:00:14 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 18, 2020, 12:58:10 PM
My point is that this is not a member of the influenza family.  To the extent it is similar to the corona family, it may not mutate as much as influenza virus, but we do not know for sure.  A vaccine can provide herd immunity without people getting sick.
Note as well we don't have a successful vaccine for SARS, MERS, or any of the common colds caused by Corona virii.

Maybe this will be different? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2020, 03:03:52 PM
I don't think we will see a vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2020, 03:15:39 PM
J&J is in clinical trials with one effort already. The MERS/SARS thing kind of went away and never was that much here.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-17/coronavirus-vaccine-ian-frazer/12146616 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-17/coronavirus-vaccine-ian-frazer/12146616)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 18, 2020, 03:24:11 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2020, 03:03:52 PM
I don't think we will see a vaccine.
Maybe or maybe not.  It doesn't really matter to be honest, because at its earliest, it's still so far away it can't stop the virus from running its course.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 18, 2020, 03:25:55 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 18, 2020, 02:56:28 PM
After testing negative, she wrote "I am finally home after being hospitalized for a day and a half. I am still on breathing treatment but have beaten the coronavirus. Stay home and be safe.”

And by the time she was going to the hospital the first time, this thread was 33 pages long and Wisconsin was nine days removed from the governor ordering the closing of schools.

So if by that point she was gonna start a panic, the people getting panicked were either dangerously not paying attention or dangerously thinking it wouldn't impact their community.
WHAT,I don't keep a diary timeline but 4 weeks ago if you walked into Stores/groceries around here you couldn't get bleach,alcohol,hydrogen peroxide,paper products,rubber gloves,masks along with many more staples.You don't think people were starting to panic?I don't blame themYour timelines don't coincide with what i remember


Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said the decision stemmed from “the uniform recommendations of the career public health officials here at HHS.”Azar declared (https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/01/31/secretary-azar-declares-public-health-emergency-us-2019-novel-coronavirus.html) a public health emergency for the novel coronavirus on Jan. 31, and announced (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/press-briefing-members-presidents-coronavirus-task-force/) the travel restrictions to and from China, effective Feb. 2.

So that story broke long before the governor ordered the closing of schools.The Feds were adressing this at a higher level and earlier.Didn't say she started a panic simply said she could help one along and was inaccurate as she didnot test positive.I do not know the context in which she posted.If it harmless tweet/post between friends then shame on the sheriff.If she was  on a communty board saying such then that is a different story.You have quoted one post.How many more did she post?Where any deleted,if so when - see there is alot more here.I have a hard time believing the County Sheriff just randomely picked her out and gave her the what for.If that is the case then i hope they do sue and win.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 18, 2020, 04:07:31 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 18, 2020, 03:25:55 PM
WHAT,I don't keep a diary timeline but 4 weeks ago if you walked into Stores/groceries around here you couldn't get bleach,alcohol,hydrogen peroxide,paper products,rubber gloves,masks along with many more staples.You don't think people were starting to panic?I don't blame themYour timelines don't coincide with what i remember


Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said the decision stemmed from “the uniform recommendations of the career public health officials here at HHS.”Azar declared (https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/01/31/secretary-azar-declares-public-health-emergency-us-2019-novel-coronavirus.html) a public health emergency for the novel coronavirus on Jan. 31, and announced (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/press-briefing-members-presidents-coronavirus-task-force/) the travel restrictions to and from China, effective Feb. 2.

So that story broke long before the governor ordered the closing of schools.The Feds were adressing this at a higher level and earlier.Didn't say she started a panic simply said she could help one along and was inaccurate as she didnot test positive.I do not know the context in which she posted.If it harmless tweet/post between friends then shame on the sheriff.If she was  on a communty board saying such then that is a different story.You have quoted one post.How many more did she post?Where any deleted,if so when - see there is alot more here.I have a hard time believing the County Sheriff just randomely picked her out and gave her the what for.If that is the case then i hope they do sue and win.
It was an instagram post on her own account. There were 2-3 offending posts between March 22-25. That would have been well past the point you mentioned

(I think the school called the sheriff for some reason)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 18, 2020, 04:18:09 PM
Lot more I certainly don't know,not sure i mentioned specific points.Just that at that time the populations in general seemed on edge.I hope it ends well and lessons are learned.And if she is right then by all means sue him/them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2020, 04:30:03 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 18, 2020, 04:18:09 PM
Lot more I certainly don't know,not sure i mentioned specific points.Just that at that time the populations in general seemed on edge.I hope it ends well and lessons are learned.And if she is right then by all means sue him/them
had that happened to my daughter I probably would have called the FBI
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 18, 2020, 04:38:59 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 18, 2020, 04:30:03 PM
had that happened to my daughter I probably would have called the FBI
If it happened exactly like that i would have dialed for you
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2020, 04:42:58 PM
I think it was bad judgement (16, duh) to post, and I think it was bad judgement for the sheriff to threaten arrest.

A simple "knock it off and here's why" would have been the way to go.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2020, 04:52:39 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2020, 04:42:58 PM
I think it was bad judgement (16, duh) to post, and I think it was bad judgement for the sheriff to threaten arrest.

A simple "knock it off and here's why" would have been the way to go.
It should not have come from the sheriff

just to show up in uniform would pose a threat to me

the school should have contacted them and made a friendly request with an explanation
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 18, 2020, 05:03:39 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 18, 2020, 10:00:35 AM
his own "adopted" party doesn't even like him
No one in the establishment on either side the of the aisle likes him because he’s a threat to their power and to the status quo. The guy is a billionaire several times over, which means he can’t be bought by special interest donors like the rest of them can.

Even the richest person in Congress- which is probably Mitt Romney- looks poor in comparison to Trump. Trump could self-fund campaigns if he chose too.  Most of them can’t. They rely on Wall Street and Fortune 500 donors. 

Unfortunately in my view the guy has played ball with the establishment way too much and hasn’t broken their backs like he was campaigning on. Which is why you’ve seen most of the Republicans pretty much publicly embrace him when at the very beginning they were trying to do everything and anything they could to discredit him and rig the process against him winning the nomination. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 18, 2020, 05:07:50 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 18, 2020, 01:36:33 PM
That's true.

But you could say the much same thing about the 43rd president.  "Selected, not elected," "illegitimate president," and all that.
Yet 43 behaved much differently than 45 has.
Maybe one's character shows most clearly under pressure.
From Thomas Paine's The American Crisis, Issue No. 1, 23 December 1776, 3 days before the crossing of the Delaware and the capture of Trenton.
The familiar line: "These are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman."  Too familiar, I fear.  So much so that we seldom think of it.
But then this: "Voltaire has remarked that King William never appeared to full advantage but in difficulties and in action; the same remark may be made on General Washington, for the character fits him. There is a natural firmness in some minds which cannot be unlocked by trifles, but which, when unlocked, discovers a cabinet of fortitude; and I reckon it among those kind of public blessings, which we do not immediately see, that God hath blessed him with uninterrupted health, and given him a mind that can even flourish upon care."
43 was part of the gentlemen’s club. He came from a family that is political royalty. He knew what was expected of him. He was raised in it.

45 was as outsider as they come.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 18, 2020, 05:41:13 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 18, 2020, 05:03:39 PM
No one in the establishment on either side the of the aisle likes him because he’s a threat to their power and to the status quo. The guy is a billionaire several times over, which means he can’t be bought by special interest donors like the rest of them can.

Even the richest person in Congress- which is probably Mitt Romney- looks poor in comparison to Trump. Trump could self-fund campaigns if he chose too.  Most of them can’t. They rely on Wall Street and Fortune 500 donors.

Unfortunately in my view the guy has played ball with the establishment way too much and hasn’t broken their backs like he was campaigning on. Which is why you’ve seen most of the Republicans pretty much publicly embrace him when at the very beginning they were trying to do everything and anything they could to discredit him and rig the process against him winning the nomination.
Anyone can be bought.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 18, 2020, 07:03:59 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2020, 09:50:20 AM
This guy, no matter if you like him, hate him, or are indifferent to him (me) was never, ever going to get a fair shake from the media, nor from the "other side". He's been under investigation for impeachment since day one, and still is. It's hard to "lead" under those conditions.
What conditions did he not create for himself?  
This post acts like he was a harmless unknown until he took office.  That's dishonest and absurd.  The entire lead-up, through the primaries and into the national election displayed who and what he is.  That's what was being reacted to.  It wasn't some preconceived hatred, it was responding to what he said and what he did.
.
This victim card bullshit is incredulous.  Just stop.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 18, 2020, 07:05:19 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 18, 2020, 05:41:13 PM
Anyone can be bought.
Trump is easily bought...with attention.  Ratings.  Acceptance by those he values.  He's a cheap mark, actually.  Just blow smoke up his ass, doesn't cost you a dime.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 18, 2020, 07:16:34 PM
Ali-Frazier I on ESPN right now.   My dad paid 20 dollars to watch this fight on closed circuit television at a 3000 seat arena in 1971.  He said that was a lot of money to him (it’s actually equivalent to a little over $127 today) but said it was worth every penny. Always called it the best fight he had ever seen. Many super fights don’t live up to their billing.  

This one did.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2020, 07:21:09 PM
The wealthiest person in Congress is apparently Kelly Loeffler.  Who you might ask?  Junior Senator from GA.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 18, 2020, 07:42:13 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 18, 2020, 07:05:19 PM
Trump is easily bought...with attention.  Ratings.  Acceptance by those he values.  He's a cheap mark, actually.  Just blow smoke up his ass, doesn't cost you a dime.
This makes him just like every other politician in Washington.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 18, 2020, 07:54:14 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 18, 2020, 07:03:59 PM
What conditions did he not create for himself? 
This post acts like he was a harmless unknown until he took office.  That's dishonest and absurd.  The entire lead-up, through the primaries and into the national election displayed who and what he is.  That's what was being reacted to.  It wasn't some preconceived hatred, it was responding to what he said and what he did.
.
This victim card bullshit is incredulous.  Just stop.
He never said he was a victim.   He said the media and opposition party would never give him a fair shake.

if you can sit here and say they have, you would be a focus group of one.  Even most on the left openly admit that is their playbook - relentless criticism and obstruction, use any and every situation or word to try to discredit him, blame him or indict him.

absent is, often, the espousing of any constructive ideas or of their own.  

I dare say, even those who hate him admit as much.  Hate him all you want, but you can’t claim with credibility that he has been treated fairly. And I will say it again, I don’t like the guy. Some of the shit that comes out of his mouth and tweets is pretty bad.

but in judgement of his actions....I can separate that out.  And lastly- you have to take into account what alternatives have been presented.  So many that would take his place talk about things that just won’t ever sit well with most people in this country...in fact they find them scary and offensive.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 18, 2020, 08:30:58 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on April 18, 2020, 07:42:13 PM
This makes him just like every other politician in Washington. 

Yup.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on April 18, 2020, 08:39:12 PM
Quarantine activity #162:

https://twitter.com/NDFootball/status/1251643979197808640
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 18, 2020, 08:45:25 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 18, 2020, 07:54:14 PM
He never said he was a victim.  He said the media and opposition party would never give him a fair shake.

if you can sit here and say they have, you would be a focus group of one.  Even most on the left openly admit that is their playbook - relentless criticism and obstruction, use any and every situation or word to try to discredit him, blame him or indict him.

absent is, often, the espousing of any constructive ideas or of their own. 

I dare say, even those who hate him admit as much.  Hate him all you want, but you can’t claim with credibility that he has been treated fairly. And I will say it again, I don’t like the guy. Some of the shit that comes out of his mouth and tweets is pretty bad.

but in judgement of his actions....I can separate that out.  And lastly- you have to take into account what alternatives have been presented.  So many that would take his place talk about things that just won’t ever sit well with most people in this country...in fact they find them scary and offensive. 
No, just no.
His coverage - which he has garnered and sought out, mind you - has mirrored his words and actions.  From the day he threw his hat in the ring, his words and actions has earned him all the criticism in the world.  But he EARNED it.  It has zero to do with the idea of a fair shake - the coverage is what it is.  They didn't change his words.  They haven't altered his actions.  
.
You don't have to hate him to find him absurd, incompetent, and a mental/emotional child.  I don't have to invent anything, skew anything, or produce any inordinate dislike for him, merely cite his words and actions.  He's a garbage human being.  He is SOLELY self-serving.  He wouldn't piss on a burning poor person or brown person to save their life.  He is ill-prepared in every scope of the job.  He's the most explicit hypocrite I've ever witnessed.  These are truths, and the more you observe him, the more true they become.  
.
His supporters/defenders keep conjuring this fantasy that he's been treated unfairly.  Why on earth does he expect to be treated well?  Why would any person outputting the rubbish he does expect anything positive coming back at them?  This idea that are unfairly against him is nuts.  People are against him because he's awful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2020, 08:57:18 PM
One of the most delightful things in life will be watching people like OAM tear themselves apart with grief 

when Trump wins another 4 years as our President
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 18, 2020, 09:35:52 PM
Back to the ostensible topic of this thread, the University of Chicago Medical Center is conducting a clinical trial with the drug remdesivir (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/remdesivir-surges-ahead-against-coronavirus/), and is having good success so far.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/ (https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 18, 2020, 09:50:01 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 18, 2020, 08:45:25 PM
No, just no.
His coverage - which he has garnered and sought out, mind you - has mirrored his words and actions.  From the day he threw his hat in the ring, his words and actions has earned him all the criticism in the world.  But he EARNED it.  It has zero to do with the idea of a fair shake - the coverage is what it is.  They didn't change his words.  They haven't altered his actions. 
.
You don't have to hate him to find him absurd, incompetent, and a mental/emotional child.  I don't have to invent anything, skew anything, or produce any inordinate dislike for him, merely cite his words and actions.  He's a garbage human being.  He is SOLELY self-serving.  He wouldn't piss on a burning poor person or brown person to save their life.  He is ill-prepared in every scope of the job.  He's the most explicit hypocrite I've ever witnessed.  These are truths, and the more you observe him, the more true they become. 
.
His supporters/defenders keep conjuring this fantasy that he's been treated unfairly.  Why on earth does he expect to be treated well?  Why would any person outputting the rubbish he does expect anything positive coming back at them?  This idea that are unfairly against him is nuts.  People are against him because he's awful.
Wow.  I guess you are entitled to your opinion. for the record I disagree with just about every you said. And I don’t even like him.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 18, 2020, 09:57:49 PM
And separately, I feel like the left is the most hypocritical, self serving, divisive and racist group of my lifetime. The majority of the media not only included but central to those themes.  

I know- You’re going to tell me that it’s OK or to spend $35 million in three years trying to pin fantasy crimes on him, or for an elected official to call for his assassination, or someone to carry around photographs of his severed head.  

There are millions who disagree with me on that and millions that agree.  The nature of our two party system I guess.  

Lastly I find it almost humorous that he gets blamed for the polarization in divide in this country as if he was the cause. Missing is the obvious - that he is not the cause but the effect of many years of political correctness gone way too far.  That’s how somebody outside of the established political arena gets elected. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 18, 2020, 09:59:33 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 18, 2020, 09:35:52 PM
Back to the ostensible topic of this thread, the University of Chicago Medical Center is conducting a clinical trial with the drug remdesivir (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/remdesivir-surges-ahead-against-coronavirus/), and is having good success so far.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/ (https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/)
Oh shit. Success.  That won’t sit well with some of the media.  No- not at all.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 18, 2020, 10:08:24 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 18, 2020, 09:50:01 PM
Wow.  I guess you are entitled to your opinion. for the record I disagree with just about every you said. And I don’t even like him.
I fully support your disagreeing with me.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 18, 2020, 10:10:48 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 18, 2020, 08:57:18 PM
One of the most delightful things in life will be watching people like OAM tear themselves apart with grief

when Trump wins another 4 years as our President
That's the wrong emotion.  I'd feel apathy.  We deserve whoever we pick.  And I'd have even less respect for the masses than I do now...if that's possible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 18, 2020, 10:11:35 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 18, 2020, 09:57:49 PM
Lastly I find it almost humorous that he gets blamed for the polarization in divide in this country as if he was the cause. Missing is the obvious - that he is not the cause but the effect of many years of political correctness gone way too far.  That’s how somebody outside of the established political arena gets elected.
This.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 18, 2020, 10:19:51 PM
May I ask you OAF,  what do you think of his Jan 31 ban on travel in from China? 

Was it wrong or right?  Was it racist or justified?

Was there any Democrat in high office in this country, that you are aware of, who suggested that or any other tactic/strategy/policy related to COVID at or before that time?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 18, 2020, 10:36:06 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 18, 2020, 10:19:51 PM
May I ask you OAF,  what do you think of his Jan 31 ban on travel in from China?

Was it wrong or right?  Was it racist or justified?

Was there any Democrat in high office in this country, that you are aware of, who suggested that or any other tactic/strategy/policy related to COVID at or before that time?
I think the travel ban was cautious, which made it prudent. 
Please stop with the "yeah, but" crap.  It doesn't matter if a Dem was more on top of things than Trump.  They weren't receiving the same info about the virus in the early weeks about it as he was.  I'm not making any leap here, I'm merely saying no Dems had the same info as Trump did early on.  AND NONE OF THEM ARE THE PRESIDENT.
.
If Trump (or anybody) slashes my tires so I can't drive, I don't care if someone else also broke my tail light.  Genuine, intelligent discussion and debate is almost constantly derailed by this "yeah, but" garbage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on April 18, 2020, 10:37:32 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 18, 2020, 09:57:49 PM
And separately, I feel like the left is the most hypocritical, self serving, divisive and racist group of my lifetime.
Bud you need to read a book
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 18, 2020, 10:39:43 PM
How dare you suggest such a thing!  :57:
.
The far left is a group I'd describe as cannibalistic.  Not racist.  There's no such thing as being woke enough.  And when stupid people feel emboldened to act, they - you guessed it - act stupidly.  That's how you get antifa.  Is that still a thing?  Meh.
.
And falling back on identity politics isn't racist.  It's lazy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 18, 2020, 10:44:13 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on April 18, 2020, 10:37:32 PM
Bud you need to read a book
Yes. Me and at least 60 million people


but we know- the way you think is correct and those of us who feel different are just dumb and uneducated. We have been told that by you and XiNN and MSNBC since you called anyone who has a different opinion than you -deplorable. 

unfortunately that won’t solve the differences. Most of the things we disagree on are too important to us to not stand for. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 18, 2020, 10:48:23 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 18, 2020, 10:36:06 PM
I think the travel ban was cautious, which made it prudent. 
Please stop with the "yeah, but" crap.  It doesn't matter if a Dem was more on top of things than Trump.  They weren't receiving the same info about the virus in the early weeks about it as he was.  I'm not making any leap here, I'm merely saying no Dems had the same info as Trump did early on.  AND NONE OF THEM ARE THE PRESIDENT.
.
If Trump (or anybody) slashes my tires so I can't drive, I don't care if someone else also broke my tail light.  Genuine, intelligent discussion and debate is almost constantly derailed by this "yeah, but" garbage.
You lost me with your “yeah But”. Not sure where you got that from my post. 
I just asked a few simple questions.  Thought maybe you could have a good constructive dialogue.  Clearly not. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 18, 2020, 10:51:07 PM
For me, the only deplorables are the "religious right" who proudly stand by their man in Trump.  THAT is truly disgusting.  It's literally indefensible.  There are certain things they'd cross a candidate off their lists for being guilty of, and Trump is guilty of them all...and yet they swoon.  It's shameful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 18, 2020, 10:53:27 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 18, 2020, 10:36:06 PM
I think the travel ban was cautious, which made it prudent. 
Please stop with the "yeah, but" crap.  It doesn't matter if a Dem was more on top of things than Trump.  They weren't receiving the same info about the virus in the early weeks about it as he was.  I'm not making any leap here, I'm merely saying no Dems had the same info as Trump did early on.  AND NONE OF THEM ARE THE PRESIDENT.
.
If Trump (or anybody) slashes my tires so I can't drive, I don't care if someone else also broke my tail light.  Genuine, intelligent discussion and debate is almost constantly derailed by this "yeah, but" garbage.
And what was the info he was receiving? From what I can tell it was all over the place.  And it seems a big reason for that is China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 18, 2020, 10:55:17 PM
I'll explain, if that helps.  I answered your question.
The topic is Trump's response to the virus.  You asked about it and I answered.  
.
Then the "yeah, but" stuff is when you stray from the topic ^^^^ and start asking about Dems.  Wait, I thought we were talking about Trump.  Why are you bringing up the Dems?  The Dems without the same intel docs Trump had.  The Dems who aren't the president and making these decisions.  What in the hell do they matter in this discussion?
.
It's not just you, i'm not singling you out.  Most people do this.  it's the thing where you get pulled over for speeding, and you tell the cop, "yeah, but the blue Porsche was speeding faster than I was!"  Doesn't matter.  You're the one pulled over.  The blue Porsche (the Dems) are irrelevant.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 18, 2020, 10:56:42 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on April 18, 2020, 10:53:27 PM
And what was the info he was receiving? From what I can tell it was all over the place.  And it seems a big reason for that is China.
You'd have to ask him.  Do you not think the president is given intelligence docs that the rest of the politicians don't get?  You can research the timeline if you want.  Be careful though, there's a lot of muck out there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 18, 2020, 10:58:41 PM
Washington Post got their hands on US diplomatic cables from US officials in Beijing from 2018, where they openly warned and worried about the lab in Wuhan and it's potential for catastrophe. Yeah, that YouTuber who lived in China for 10 years was all over this shit. That dude might've swooped the entire world media. Wow.



Amid questions about the origin of the novel coronavirus outbreak, newly reported diplomatic cables showed that US officials had sounded the alarm about possible safety breaches at a lab studying coronaviruses in animals in Wuhan, China.



In the cables, obtained by the Washington Post national-security columnist Josh Rogin (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/), US officials raised concerns about safety at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in 2018, two years before the novel coronavirus outbreak.



The lab, which holds a level-four biosafety research certification, the highest possible rating, was conducting research on coronaviruses in bats.



After multiple visits to the lab from a US diplomat in Wuhan and a science diplomat at the US Embassy in Beijing in early 2018, the officials became concerned about the safety of the research and sent two "sensitive but unclassified" cables back to Washington, DC, asking for assistance to help the lab tighten its safety protocols.



According to The Post, a cable dated January 19, 2018, said that "during interactions with scientists at the WIV laboratory, they noted the new lab has a serious shortage of appropriately trained technicians and investigators needed to safely operate this high-containment laboratory."





The Post said that diplomats and scientists were particularly worried about the safety of the lab's research on the transmission of bat coronaviruses and warned that sloppy safety protocols for handling contagious viruses in the lab "represented a risk of a new SARS-like pandemic."



https://www.businessinsider.com/us-officials-raised-alarms-about-safety-issues-in-wuhan-lab-report-2020-4





Ask yourself this, if this really just came out of a wildlife wet market, why would the CCP try and cover this thing up like they did? Why destroy evidence? Why murder whistleblowers and doctors? Why try to silence scientists and doctors? Why scrub the entire internet? Why with hold information? Why? Because it probably leaked out of that lab and they don't want the entire world to know about it. The CCP is more about saving face and maintaining and growing it's power than they are about anything else. If they let the world know this thing was a lab accident, they'd never be able to live it down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on April 18, 2020, 10:59:07 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 18, 2020, 10:44:13 PM
Yes. Me and at least 60 million people


but we know- the way you think is correct and those of us who feel different are just dumb and uneducated. We have been told that by you and XiNN and MSNBC since you called anyone who has a different opinion than you -deplorable.
Bring called deplorable that's probably the worst thing to ever happen to a group of people
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 18, 2020, 11:01:07 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 18, 2020, 10:56:42 PM
You'd have to ask him.  Do you not think the president is given intelligence docs that the rest of the politicians don't get?  You can research the timeline if you want.  Be careful though, there's a lot of muck out there.
That’s why I find it hard to criticize him too much .  None of us really really know what information he was receiving or if it was even accurate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 18, 2020, 11:06:59 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 18, 2020, 10:56:42 PM
You'd have to ask him.  Do you not think the president is given intelligence docs that the rest of the politicians don't get?  You can research the timeline if you want.  Be careful though, there's a lot of muck out there.
The problem in this entire thing lies with China. They were not honest about this thing at all. My guess is that Trump handled them with kid gloves when this was all initially going on in order not to mess up negotiations on a very important trade deal with China. Turns out, he should've been putting the screws on them and bashing them publicly demanding transparency instead of singing their praises.

You'd expect a foreign government to be honest about a pandemic. Turns out you shouldn't when that country is China. China has lost any and all of what little credibility they had. The entire world is pissed off at them. UK, Australia, Brazil, Italy, France, South Korea, Japan, US all hating on China hard right now. China is in for a world of hurt once this is all over.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 18, 2020, 11:18:49 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 18, 2020, 10:55:17 PM
I'll explain, if that helps.  I answered your question.
The topic is Trump's response to the virus.  You asked about it and I answered. 
.
Then the "yeah, but" stuff is when you stray from the topic ^^^^ and start asking about Dems.  Wait, I thought we were talking about Trump.  Why are you bringing up the Dems?  The Dems without the same intel docs Trump had.  The Dems who aren't the president and making these decisions.  What in the hell do they matter in this discussion?
.
It's not just you, i'm not singling you out.  Most people do this.  it's the thing where you get pulled over for speeding, and you tell the cop, "yeah, but the blue Porsche was speeding faster than I was!"  Doesn't matter.  You're the one pulled over.  The blue Porsche (the Dems) are irrelevant. 
I was just exploring your previous comments theorizing that he deserves criticism unilaterally
so- he is being criticized- completely falsely IMHO- for acting too slow.

in order to say that- what is that relative to? When should that action have taken place? Those who criticized that action in the short term—do they still think it was wrong now that more data is available?  And lastly- it is absolutely fair and appropriate to ask those who quite viscously criticized that action- what is the suggested alternative.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 18, 2020, 11:59:27 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 18, 2020, 11:06:59 PM

You'd expect a foreign government to be honest about a pandemic. Turns out you shouldn't when that country is China. 
We've had this convo before, but I don't trust our current leadership to be honest about a pandemic.  We said our media would bail us out....that same evil, liberal media that can't be trusted, I guess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 19, 2020, 12:05:29 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 18, 2020, 11:18:49 PM
I was just exploring your previous comments theorizing that he deserves criticism unilaterally
so- he is being criticized- completely falsely IMHO- for acting too slow.

in order to say that- what is that relative to? When should that action have taken place? Those who criticized that action in the short term—do they still think it was wrong now that more data is available?  And lastly- it is absolutely fair and appropriate to ask those who quite viscously criticized that action- what is the suggested alternative.
I think there's too many unknowns to feel either way (unfairly attacked for not acting earlier OR wise to cut off travel from China).  I honestly don't care about that.  
My criticisms of him are larger than one occurrence.  His every real shortcoming is predictable to me.  His every success is accidental. 

We don't know it for sure, but let's say his closing travel from China when he did as a good thing.  Let's agree on that.  Let's agree  that one thing was a job well done.  Does the reason behind it matter?  With Trump, I think it's fair to question it.  I previously described it as cautious and thus prudent.  Are those 2 adjectives you'd apply to Trump?  By calling his successes accidental, I might guess that his closing travel from China was merely an opportunity as a jab at them.  Just a dumb-luck chance to shit on China and wasn't a cautious, prudent decision at all.  Now, it wouldn't be fair to claim that, but it's fair for me to consider it and even lean that way.

But in the end, you could say the reason behind the move didn't matter, as long as it netted a plus for us.  Great.  But doing something good for (potentially) bad reasons isn't going to lead to doing more good things going forward.  Ya know?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 19, 2020, 12:12:10 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 18, 2020, 11:59:27 PM
We've had this convo before, but I don't trust our current leadership to be honest about a pandemic.  We said our media would bail us out....that same evil, liberal media that can't be trusted, I guess.
What in the hell are you talking about?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 19, 2020, 12:16:00 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 19, 2020, 12:05:29 AM
I think there's too many unknowns to feel either way (unfairly attacked for not acting earlier OR wise to cut off travel from China).  I honestly don't care about that. 
My criticisms of him are larger than one occurrence.  His every real shortcoming is predictable to me.  His every success is accidental. 

We don't know it for sure, but let's say his closing travel from China when he did as a good thing.  Let's agree on that.  Let's agree  that one thing was a job well done.  Does the reason behind it matter?  With Trump, I think it's fair to question it.  I previously described it as cautious and thus prudent.  Are those 2 adjectives you'd apply to Trump?  By calling his successes accidental, I might guess that his closing travel from China was merely an opportunity as a jab at them.  Just a dumb-luck chance to shit on China and wasn't a cautious, prudent decision at all.  Now, it wouldn't be fair to claim that, but it's fair for me to consider it and even lean that way.

But in the end, you could say the reason behind the move didn't matter, as long as it netted a plus for us.  Great.  But doing something good for (potentially) bad reasons isn't going to lead to doing more good things going forward.  Ya know?
Agreed.  But to me- it easily disproved your theory that he deserves ALL of his criticism.
those in public office or running for public office- who labeled that action, clearly had no right to. some have since admitted as much not most are still riding the train

what strikes me-and this is more intuitive than data based, is this:
his supporters are pretty cemented, as are his haters.  Not much will change.  But that (relatively small I am guessing) group in the middle, really independent as far as political affiliation, see the constant critique of him, much of it like stated above as not accurate and tend to gravitate more in his favor.

said another way- the lefts playbook of obstructing and criticizing has hurt them and will continue to- if their goal is to beat him at the polls. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 19, 2020, 12:32:09 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 19, 2020, 12:05:29 AM
I think there's too many unknowns to feel either way (unfairly attacked for not acting earlier OR wise to cut off travel from China).  I honestly don't care about that. 
My criticisms of him are larger than one occurrence.  His every real shortcoming is predictable to me.  His every success is accidental. 

We don't know it for sure, but let's say his closing travel from China when he did as a good thing.  Let's agree on that.  Let's agree  that one thing was a job well done.  Does the reason behind it matter?  With Trump, I think it's fair to question it.  I previously described it as cautious and thus prudent.  Are those 2 adjectives you'd apply to Trump?  By calling his successes accidental, I might guess that his closing travel from China was merely an opportunity as a jab at them.  Just a dumb-luck chance to shit on China and wasn't a cautious, prudent decision at all.  Now, it wouldn't be fair to claim that, but it's fair for me to consider it and even lean that way.

But in the end, you could say the reason behind the move didn't matter, as long as it netted a plus for us.  Great.  But doing something good for (potentially) bad reasons isn't going to lead to doing more good things going forward.  Ya know?
I gotta be honest, when you say things like his successes are accidental it’s a bad look.  That is just unreasonable. That just makes it sound like regardless of anything he does your heels are dug in to criticize him.

It’s that kind of attitude that makes his supporters dig their heels in even more.  That’s what causes his supporters to make him a victim.  I mean you all but said anything he does that works out is dumb luck and not worthy of praise.  So absent of reasonable praise his supporters will shower him with unreasonable praise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 19, 2020, 12:38:38 AM
That's fair.
I guess I just haven't seen him do something I find good without there being an obvious, potential ulterior motive.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 19, 2020, 12:40:09 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 19, 2020, 12:16:00 AM
Agreed.  But to me- it easily disproved your theory that he deserves ALL of his criticism.
those in public office or running for public office- who labeled that action, clearly had no right to. some have since admitted as much not most are still riding the train

what strikes me-and this is more intuitive than data based, is this:
his supporters are pretty cemented, as are his haters.  Not much will change.  But that (relatively small I am guessing) group in the middle, really independent as far as political affiliation, see the constant critique of him, much of it like stated above as not accurate and tend to gravitate more in his favor.

said another way- the lefts playbook of obstructing and criticizing has hurt them and will continue to- if their goal is to beat him at the polls. 

I don't think he's received any more UNDUE criticism than any president has.  It just seems like it, because the normal amount of undue criticism is being added to the gigantic volume of criticism he creates for himself, through his words and actions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 19, 2020, 12:57:37 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 18, 2020, 10:51:07 PM
For me, the only deplorables are the "religious right" who proudly stand by their man in Trump.  THAT is truly disgusting.  It's literally indefensible.  There are certain things they'd cross a candidate off their lists for being guilty of, and Trump is guilty of them all...and yet they swoon.  It's shameful.
Those people are in the religious right, but they are not THE religious right.  They're just a part of it.  The most visible part of it, unfortunately.
But, hey, could we discuss the coronavirus or something on this thread?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 19, 2020, 01:06:05 AM
Look, I get it. Trump, to me, is just a really unlikeable person.  I’ve said before if I just wanted to have a couple of beers and casually shoot the bull for a little while I’d rather have Obama’s company over Trump’s any day of the week.  I mean, the dude really is kind of an asshole.

So I agree that Trump’s personality brings on extra criticism that he probably deserves. But even if you factor him being a jerk it still feels like the criticism is too much sometimes, imo.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on April 19, 2020, 01:35:03 AM
31 December: The Wuhan Municipal Health Committee informed WHO of 27 "cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology (unknown cause) detected in Wuhan."

20 January: On 20 January, China National Health Commission confirmed that the virus was human-to-human transmissible

25 January: Chinese President Xi Jinping called the "accelerating spread" of the coronavirus a "grave situation"

30 January: WHO Situation Report 10:WHO declared the virus was a P (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Health_Emergency_of_International_Concern)ublic Health Emergency of International Concern and advised "all countries should be prepared for containment, including active surveillance, early detection, isolation and case management, contact tracing and prevention of onward spread of 2019-nCoV infection, and to share full data with WHO."

I wish someone on here could explain what the United States, with all these signs publicly known, let alone the intelligence that is not publicly known, was doing in January and February 2020 to prepare for a pandemic of epic proportion?

The United States exports of PPE to china increased in January and February 2020 from the same period in 2019 from $1.4M to $17.6M. Shipments of Ventilators to China in January and February 2020 compared to 2019 jumped from 2019 to 2020 in triple digit percentages. This doesn't include the 17 tons of PPE Mike Pompeo's State Department generously donated to China in February 2020.

If someone would, please explain what the United States did to prepare for the pandemic in January and February, other than restricting international travel from China and allowing only more than 40,000 people to fly here from China after January?

That said, if it can be pulled off without excessive loss of life (not sure what excessive would be), what about a 7-game Big Ten season starting in October, when football season used to start years ago? Let's try one nonconference game and 6 intradivisional games, with a Big Ten Championship game to follow. I doubt we can do it without a safe and effective antiviral drug, but we have to start thinking about what is possible. Some say Spring 2021. We could not have had a Spring 2020 football season, and from what I read the earliest a safe and effective vaccine could be developed and have wide distribution is 18-months from March. And, from what I understand that is extremely optimistic.













Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 19, 2020, 06:07:43 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on April 19, 2020, 01:35:03 AM
31 December: The Wuhan Municipal Health Committee informed WHO of 27 "cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology (unknown cause) detected in Wuhan."

20 January: On 20 January, China National Health Commission confirmed that the virus was human-to-human transmissible

25 January: Chinese President Xi Jinping called the "accelerating spread" of the coronavirus a "grave situation"

30 January: WHO Situation Report 10:WHO declared the virus was a P (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Health_Emergency_of_International_Concern)ublic Health Emergency of International Concern and advised "all countries should be prepared for containment, including active surveillance, early detection, isolation and case management, contact tracing and prevention of onward spread of 2019-nCoV infection, and to share full data with WHO."

I wish someone on here could explain what the United States, with all these signs publicly known, let alone the intelligence that is not publicly known, was doing in January and February 2020 to prepare for a pandemic of epic proportion?

The United States exports of PPE to china increased in January and February 2020 from the same period in 2019 from $1.4M to $17.6M. Shipments of Ventilators to China in January and February 2020 compared to 2019 jumped from 2019 to 2020 in triple digit percentages. This doesn't include the 17 tons of PPE Mike Pompeo's State Department generously donated to China in February 2020.

If someone would, please explain what the United States did to prepare for the pandemic in January and February, other than restricting international travel from China and allowing only more than 40,000 people to fly here from China after January?

That said, if it can be pulled off without excessive loss of life (not sure what excessive would be), what about a 7-game Big Ten season starting in October, when football season used to start years ago? Let's try one nonconference game and 6 intradivisional games, with a Big Ten Championship game to follow. I doubt we can do it without a safe and effective antiviral drug, but we have to start thinking about what is possible. Some say Spring 2021. We could not have had a Spring 2020 football season, and from what I read the earliest a safe and effective vaccine could be developed and have wide distribution is 18-months from March. And, from what I understand that is extremely optimistic.














Good stuff. you can’t prepare for a pandemic in 30 days. 

if your a large hospital, health system with multiple hospitals, or a large city like NYC or Chicago, you have a pandemic plan in place. A specific plan which includes predetermined number of beds, ventilators and masks. 
We know have learned that many did not have a plan, or in the case of NYC ignored the requirements of their own plan. We now see a published report for example- from a government task force for the state of NY- which Cuomo received in 2015! It specifically told him he was short 15000 ventilators, just to name one thing.
now I am not trying to pick on him, but imagine how different the numbers and perception would be had NYC been prepared.
to throw gas on the fire- the mayor and Health commissioner there were Strongly encouraging people to be out and using the subway- in FEBRUARY!
so this is where a lot of people like me, who are not particularly fond of Trump, tend to gravitate toward him when we see the media completely ignoring what I just told you and blaming him when he’s the one that set the travel ban in place on Jan 31, while the large cities were unprepared, and many of our media and experts like Fox, CNN, New York Times, Boston Globe, Washington Post- even the great Dr. Fauci himself who had all the data at that time- got it wrong and were downplaying the severity.  

I give them all a “c” given the false info being provided- including the President.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on April 19, 2020, 08:19:24 AM
I would imagine Trump gets more criticism because he is the president of the United States.  I don't live in New York and either do most people, so it would be weird for a lot of people to get very upset about New York politics.  Trump bungled the leadup and has been unimpressive during the crisis, both things which lead to criticism.  Cuomo has been impressive during, and it's probably the most anyone will ever pay attention to Cuomo.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 19, 2020, 08:33:50 AM
Seems there was a lot of PWI going on here last night.

Let's get back to the topic instead of trying to place blame for this. That rests with China, period, end of story.


(Posting While Intoxicated)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on April 19, 2020, 08:48:53 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 19, 2020, 08:33:50 AM
Seems there was a lot of PWI going on here last night.


(Posting While Intoxicated)
That's basically all my posts at this point
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2020, 08:52:31 AM
I am seeing more reports that many more folks test positive than was expected.  I think that could be "good" information.

They are positive with no symptoms.  It could be much wider spread than we thought, e.g., R naught is high, BUT the percentage who are asymptomatic is also high.  That puts elderly et al. at higher risk, but it's a smaller pool to manage.

We need more data.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 19, 2020, 08:53:59 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 19, 2020, 08:33:50 AM
Seems there was a lot of PWI going on here last night.

Let's get back to the topic instead of trying to place blame for this. That rests with China, period, end of story.


(Posting While Intoxicated)
I thought that was Posting While being an Idiot

anyway Trump is our President like it or not

If you dont like him dont vote for him

Back to the virus:

Interesting article about hydroxychloroquine

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/texas-city-nursing-home-doctor-unproven-drug-trump-15192584.php

 (https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/texas-city-nursing-home-doctor-unproven-drug-trump-15192584.php)Texas City is the city I grew up in

In fact my mom was in that facility for a short time several years ago before her passing

so far the results are promising







Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 19, 2020, 09:00:02 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on April 19, 2020, 08:48:53 AM
That's basically all my posts at this point
So.. you are on Vegas time then?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2020, 09:00:44 AM
Some double blind clinicals are not promising.

I sort of ponder who would support this stuff had a Democrat advocated for it.  Obviously we all should hope it has some efficacy.

The Gildead antiviral had some very very preliminary positive news.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on April 19, 2020, 09:06:36 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 19, 2020, 09:00:02 AM
So.. you are on Vegas time then?
Yes and my kids are all the annoying people on the strip begging for money and attention
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 19, 2020, 09:10:23 AM
I sent a message to my doctor yesterday. I want to know if what I had back in early March was the flu, or this thing. I dismissed at as the flu because I got better. Knowing what we now know, I'd like to learn more. My wife even got a little ill, and she (99%) NEVER gets sick. That was the first time in 10+ years since I've seen her down.

So, maybe we can find out. I'll keep you all posted on what I hear from him.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2020, 09:15:52 AM
My step daughter has recovered from whatever she had, her husband didn't come down with anything.  It could have been influenza.  She was pretty sick for a week or so but tested negative, and the MD said that didn't mean anything.

A test of a group in a homeless shelter in Boston had something like 40% test positive and asymptomatic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 19, 2020, 09:46:32 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 19, 2020, 08:33:50 AM
Seems there was a lot of PWI going on here last night.

Let's get back to the topic instead of trying to place blame for this. That rests with China, period, end of story.


(Posting While Intoxicated)
Quote from: MaximumSam on April 19, 2020, 08:48:53 AM
That's basically all my posts at this point
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 19, 2020, 09:00:02 AM
So.. you are on Vegas time then?
I was told that quarantine rules are airport rules...

If you want a drink with a side shot at 9 AM, that's your prerogative. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 19, 2020, 09:48:57 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 19, 2020, 09:00:44 AM
Some double blind clinicals are not promising.

I sort of ponder who would support this stuff had a Democrat advocated for it.  Obviously we all should hope it has some efficacy.

The Gildead antiviral had some very very preliminary positive news.
Chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine have some serious issues that it can mess with the heart... Not sure if it has enough positive effect to override the risk.

Remdesivir looked promising from the start... Interested to see if that one takes off.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 19, 2020, 10:06:14 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 19, 2020, 09:10:23 AM
I sent a message to my doctor yesterday. I want to know if what I had back in early March was the flu, or this thing. I dismissed at as the flu because I got better. Knowing what we now know, I'd like to learn more. My wife even got a little ill, and she (99%) NEVER gets sick. That was the first time in 10+ years since I've seen her down.

So, maybe we can find out. I'll keep you all posted on what I hear from him.
Definitely let us know, would love to see if you can get an antibody test.  In a weird way, this is one where you're hoping for a "positive" I'd say. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 19, 2020, 10:13:03 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 19, 2020, 09:15:52 AM
My step daughter has recovered from whatever she had, her husband didn't come down with anything.  It could have been influenza.  She was pretty sick for a week or so but tested negative, and the MD said that didn't mean anything.

A test of a group in a homeless shelter in Boston had something like 40% test positive and asymptomatic.
Wow, hadn't heard about the one in Boston.

Not sure if we touched on the Stanford Medical study in Santa Clara county, based on taking blood samples from 3,300 residents, which indicated somewhere between 2.49% and 4.16% of the population could have already had it.  That would translate to between 48,000 and 81,000 residents having it on April 1st, at a time when the positive test cases were 956. (total population in Santa Clara county is 1.93 million)

https://paloaltoonline.com/news/2020/04/17/stanford-study-more-than-48000-santa-clara-county-residents-have-likely-been-infected-by-coronavirus (https://paloaltoonline.com/news/2020/04/17/stanford-study-more-than-48000-santa-clara-county-residents-have-likely-been-infected-by-coronavirus)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 19, 2020, 10:13:12 AM
I was intoxicated last night

lucky for all yall, I didn't post anything

hard for me to keep up on this thread, but scrolling past all the political crap helps
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 19, 2020, 10:14:18 AM
Alcohol consumption is supposed to increase your chance of catching the coronas, so look out! :)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 19, 2020, 10:15:58 AM
I'd rather catch it and get over it

$1 budweisers today

like yesterday

I'm making an effort
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 19, 2020, 10:21:08 AM
Oh yeah it hasn't stopped me.   Just saying.

Yesterday we picked up crawfish from a local place, our first of the season.  So good!  And of course we had to have beer with it.   No Abita or Jax on hand, so we went with Mexican beer-- NOT Corona of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2020, 10:27:23 AM
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/us/boston-homeless-coronavirus-outbreak/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/us/boston-homeless-coronavirus-outbreak/index.html)

Out of the nearly 400 guests tested, 146 tested positive for Covid-19, according to O'Connell.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 19, 2020, 12:03:22 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 19, 2020, 10:13:12 AM
I was intoxicated last night

lucky for all yall, I didn't post anything
You did post - it was deleted,thankfully
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 19, 2020, 12:05:39 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 19, 2020, 09:10:23 AM
I sent a message to my doctor yesterday. I want to know if what I had back in early March was the flu, or this thing.
He's going with Glenlivet
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2020, 12:12:27 PM
The homeless would be the most likely to contract COVID, right?  (Not talking mortality.)  146/400 is pretty up there I think.

It would be nice to know what the infection rate is rep pop in various centers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 19, 2020, 12:18:40 PM
Talked to a clerk at the local Market.No one employed in their many outlets that he is aware of has contacted COVID.They use gloves but weren't wearing masks - they have the plexiglass partition at check outs
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2020, 12:23:47 PM
A glass partition would be better than a mask.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 19, 2020, 12:41:09 PM
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/?outputType=amp&fbclid=IwAR1cApT7tj8JUAJnntEsHZXyFPCSjYxInrncG8nymx4BMUBdN58mSHOW3-0 (https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/?outputType=amp&fbclid=IwAR1cApT7tj8JUAJnntEsHZXyFPCSjYxInrncG8nymx4BMUBdN58mSHOW3-0)


Quote
Nearly one third of 200 Chelsea residents who gave a drop of blood to researchers on the street this week tested positive for antibodies linked to COVID-19.
Sixty-four residents who had a finger pricked in Bellingham Square on Tuesday and Wednesday had antibodies that the immune system makes to fight off the coronavirus, according to Massachusetts General Hospital physicians who ran the pilot study.
The 200 participants generally appeared healthy


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on April 19, 2020, 12:59:25 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 19, 2020, 06:07:43 AM
Good stuff. you can’t prepare for a pandemic in 30 days. 

if your a large hospital, health system with multiple hospitals, or a large city like NYC or Chicago, you have a pandemic plan in place. A specific plan which includes predetermined number of beds, ventilators and masks. 
We know have learned that many did not have a plan, or in the case of NYC ignored the requirements of their own plan. We now see a published report for example- from a government task force for the state of NY- which Cuomo received in 2015! It specifically told him he was short 15000 ventilators, just to name one thing.
now I am not trying to pick on him, but imagine how different the numbers and perception would be had NYC been prepared.
to throw gas on the fire- the mayor and Health commissioner there were Strongly encouraging people to be out and using the subway- in FEBRUARY!
so this is where a lot of people like me, who are not particularly fond of Trump, tend to gravitate toward him when we see the media completely ignoring what I just told you and blaming him when he’s the one that set the travel ban in place on Jan 31, while the large cities were unprepared, and many of our media and experts like Fox, CNN, New York Times, Boston Globe, Washington Post- even the great Dr. Fauci himself who had all the data at that time- got it wrong and were downplaying the severity. 

I give them all a “c” given the false info being provided- including the President. 
I am agreeing with your comments about NYC. NYC bungled it too. I recall their reticence at closing public schools because of child care issues it would create. This when Italian hospitals were overwhelmed. NYC didn't close public schools until the same day Iowa closed them. But, NYC was so far ahead in in the advancement of the disease, whether they knew it or not, than Iowa. They should have known the increased risk given the proximity of people to each other, and that there is greater international travel to NYC than to Dubuque. That said, testing was and remains a big issue in the response to this crisis nationwide

Iowa's problems are now ramping up which will lead to nationwide problems if advancements in testing are not forthcoming, immediately. Three meat packing factories are shutdown in Iowa due to the virus. Two meat packing employees in Iowa  died from COVID-19. Plus Iowa has a major outbreak at a Tyson facility in Waterloo employing 3,000 people which is not yet shutdown. Iowa has a fifth meat packing plant that has a worker or workers testing positive that remains open.

We don't have the tests in this state to do what needs to be done to keep these facilities running. We need to test every worker, and possibly more than once at the Waterloo facility, and sort them into those who test who can work, and those who test positively who are sidelined. There are many asymptomatics and presymptomatics who are spreading it. We need the capacity to retest those who tested positively after 14-days. And, we need to be able to test workers families if family members fall ill. 

Meat packing, and food production in general, which Iowa has a lot of (ADM, General Mills, Quaker Oats), are the quintessential of the essential business type.  We need to ramp up testing, or face unimaginable consequence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 19, 2020, 01:13:20 PM
South Korea had drive-thru testing in like mid-Feb.  Our lack of testing = 2 important things:
1 - it means the % of the infected that die is very low, which is good, except...
2 - it means old people are truly screwed once people start going back to normal too soon
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 19, 2020, 01:28:56 PM
Old people are going to have to remain quarantined.  They'll have to do it on their own.  It was always going to end up here.

I've had very detailed, serious conversations with my parents and my in-laws.  They're really smart people, too.  They know what the risks are.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2020, 02:30:56 PM
Just back from Kroger (and the liquor store).  They are still out of TP amazingly.  The meat aisle was full as was everything else.

They had a plastic screen up by the register which I thought was good.

The elderly would include me by most metrics, but I'm in pretty good shape.  The homes for the elderly will have to be isolated obviously.  

We need, I think, broader testing among the rep pop in various parts of the country, including antibody testing.  This thing may be widely spread already.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 19, 2020, 02:34:44 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 19, 2020, 02:30:56 PM
 This thing may be widely spread already.
It's virtually certain.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2020, 02:49:15 PM
That depends on what one means by widely spread of course, 20%, 50%, 80%?

Knowing that figure regionally would be important, especially with antibody testing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 19, 2020, 03:16:34 PM
Quote from: Hawkinole on April 19, 2020, 12:59:25 PM
Iowa's problems are now ramping up which will lead to nationwide problems if advancements in testing are not forthcoming, immediately. Three meat packing factories are shutdown in Iowa due to the virus. Two meat packing employees in Iowa  died from COVID-19. Plus Iowa has a major outbreak at a Tyson facility in Waterloo employing 3,000 people which is not yet shutdown. Iowa has a fifth meat packing plant that has a worker or workers testing positive that remains open.
I've been reading that this has been hitting the pork markets HARD.

Not the plant shutdowns, but the fact that the bulk of bacon and rib sales are to hotel/restaurant customers, not to homes. With so many of them closed or getting absolutely minimal business, apparently prices are hitting the floor. 

So it's a good time to be on the lookout for ribs and pork belly at Costco...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 19, 2020, 03:18:29 PM
The local butcher is your friend. Mine raises his own animals, so.. good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on April 19, 2020, 04:04:42 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 19, 2020, 03:16:34 PM
I've been reading that this has been hitting the pork markets HARD.

Not the plant shutdowns, but the fact that the bulk of bacon and rib sales are to hotel/restaurant customers, not to homes. With so many of them closed or getting absolutely minimal business, apparently prices are hitting the floor.

So it's a good time to be on the lookout for ribs and pork belly at Costco...
One grain farmer called me two days ago telling how one of his acquaintances was considering digging a trench to euthanize his pigs, as he was having a problem finding a market for them and there are new ones coming in. There is only so much time they have to market their market hogs.
He told me another story about someone selling cattle who had cattle en route to a buyer, and got a call while they were en route, to turn around . . . they couldn't take them. It is affecting producers, already. Fortunately we have a very large locker plant locally, almost could be categorized as a meat packing plant, that sells meats to the public. Not sure how quickly they can ramp up production if it becomes necessary. Yes, the local butcher is your friend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on April 20, 2020, 12:01:23 AM
doesn't seem to be a lot of emphasis on the fact that NYC has a massive public transit system,  still open, and instead the Times is wringing its hands about people driving six miles in Chattanooga to go to a store.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 20, 2020, 12:04:59 AM
Quote from: MarqHusker on April 20, 2020, 12:01:23 AM
doesn't seem to be a lot of emphasis on the fact that NYC has a massive public transit system,  still open, and instead the Times is wringing its hands about people driving six miles in Chattanooga to go to a store.

Huh.  Curious isn't it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 20, 2020, 07:02:29 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 20, 2020, 12:04:59 AM
Huh.  Curious isn't it?

Not at all.  Totally predictable.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 20, 2020, 07:25:25 AM
It used to be a great newspaper.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 20, 2020, 07:31:34 AM
Our subway and bus system remains open.  The buses now are free, and very sparsely ridden.  I have not been near the subway.  I hear the system is running out of money for obvious reasons, look for bailouts to come for all sorts of municipal and state needs.  "We" have "discovered" free money at the Federal level (again) in unmoderated volumes.  It's going to be epic.

Not many here live without a car and it's easy to drive if you need, and to park.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 20, 2020, 08:36:31 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 19, 2020, 03:18:29 PM
The local butcher is your friend. Mine raises his own animals, so.. good.
We have 1/4 of beef being prepared now and due for pickup later this week. I also was able to pick up 20 lbs of bacon about a month ago for about $2 a lb from a friend that works at a local pork packing plant (My wife told him to give us $20 work of bacon; He thought she meant 20 lbs.)  I also have 10 racks of ribs coming for about $5 a rack right from the packing plant. Hopefully, I can get another 10 in a week or so. Should be sitting pretty good for summer now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 20, 2020, 11:56:30 AM
Doc said that as soon is he is able, he will get me and Mrs. 847 set up with the antibody test. Probably a month out, he said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 20, 2020, 11:58:13 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 20, 2020, 11:56:30 AM
Doc said that as soon is he is able, he will get me and Mrs. 847 set up with the antibody test. Probably a month out, he said.
Need to go to NY City

I understand they will start antibody tests this week
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 20, 2020, 12:06:22 PM
Or he could just get the virus there and build up his own
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 20, 2020, 12:08:03 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 20, 2020, 11:56:30 AM
Doc said that as soon is he is able, he will get me and Mrs. 847 set up with the antibody test. Probably a month out, he said.
I know of a doc in Chicago that's already doing them.  It's one of the first cities to have them.  How far out are you?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 20, 2020, 12:11:42 PM
About 35 minutes by train. 


And yeah, I heard about NYC doing them now. I've never been in a big hurry to go to NYC, and I'm certainly not now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 20, 2020, 12:16:17 PM
Start spreading the news.....I'm leaving today,I want to be a part of it New York,New York,C'mon Badge
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 20, 2020, 12:21:54 PM
still no toilet paper at the grocery store

they were sold out of the coffee that was on special, so I went to another branch across town - no toilet paper

80/20 ground beef was on sale for $2/pound - I grabbed 4 pounds
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 20, 2020, 12:34:48 PM
The only things we can't get at the store now are bleach wipes and bread flour. I guess everyone has taken up making bread, or, there will be a lot of stale bread flour in the garbage, down the road.

I hate people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 20, 2020, 12:37:38 PM
I've never purchased bleach wipes or hand sanitizer in my life

not starting anytime soon

I hate stupid people - most people are stupid
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 20, 2020, 12:40:24 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 20, 2020, 12:37:38 PM
I've never purchased bleach wipes or hand sanitizer in my life

not starting anytime soon

I hate stupid people - most people are stupid
They are handy these days, to wipe things down in the car when you are out and about.

We keep small bottles of sanitizer in the car. Always have though, because I visit a lot of construction sites and water to wash up is not always available.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 20, 2020, 12:42:37 PM
Apparently you can get flour here pretty regularly now... But not yeast. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 20, 2020, 12:44:49 PM
Yup, we're back to being good on TP and flour.  Yeast is now the issue, but we managed to find some.

Oh, and tonic water might be an issue in the near future.  I've got plenty though, should be enough to last me the remainder of this quarantine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 20, 2020, 12:50:49 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 20, 2020, 12:40:24 PM
They are handy these days, to wipe things down in the car when you are out and about.
Made my own with handi-wipes cut in half and sprayed with 10% Bleach solution.Rinse,repeat & toss or wash if you want to
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 20, 2020, 01:44:46 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 20, 2020, 12:11:42 PM
About 35 minutes by train.


And yeah, I heard about NYC doing them now. I've never been in a big hurry to go to NYC, and I'm certainly not now.
Imagine the trip you could have in your boat.  Lake Michigan, Lake Erie, Erie Canal, Hudson River, New York City!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 20, 2020, 04:28:03 PM
Georgia restaurants can open next Monday with distancing. Gyms and barbers etc, can open this Friday.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 20, 2020, 04:52:07 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 20, 2020, 04:28:03 PM
Georgia restaurants can open next Monday with distancing. Gyms and barbers etc, can open this Friday.


If a restaurant can open why not any business with distancing 

hopefully they will follow soon
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 20, 2020, 05:01:49 PM
They just about all are except nightclubs and bars and amusement parks.  Movies will be open with distancing.

I presume out local strip clubs fall under the nightclub thing but he didn't want to mention them.  Atlanta has a LOT of strip clubs for some reason.  Some are very high end apparently.

https://www.thecheetah.com/about/inside-the-cheetah/ (https://www.thecheetah.com/about/inside-the-cheetah/)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 20, 2020, 06:34:26 PM
Interesting piece...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/coronavirus-testing-pneumonia.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/coronavirus-testing-pneumonia.html)

Apparently COVID-19 can cause you to basically develop undetected pneumonia, to the point where your oxygen levels are significantly down, before you notice any shortness of breath. But then once you start feeling short of breath, the pneumonia is advanced and you're likely to need a vent. But if you catch the hypoxia early, and treat it, it's much less likely to advance and kill you...

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 20, 2020, 06:48:48 PM
I'll be interested if there's a point when financial incentives overwhelm whatever sort of news judgement has been deployed to this point. It would be far more profitable for our information companies to downplay what's going on. Wonder if that starts influencing it at some point given the budget shortfalls they're facing. (Granted, that damage might already be done)

I suppose the same could be said for medical companies. Hospitals likely gonna be feeling it financially until they can get more regular patients in there. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 20, 2020, 06:55:26 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 20, 2020, 06:48:48 PM
I'll be interested if there's a point when financial incentives overwhelm whatever sort of news judgement has been deployed to this point. It would be far more profitable for our information companies to downplay what's going on. Wonder if that starts influencing it at some point given the budget shortfalls they're facing. (Granted, that damage might already be done)

I suppose the same could be said for medical companies. Hospitals likely gonna be feeling it financially until they can get more regular patients in there.
Hospitals in my area are laying off large numbers of nurses and support staff already.  They're empty, preparing for a wave of COVID patients that never came.  In the meantime, they canceled all elective surgeries, which are the profitable ones. And Mayo is facing $3 billion in losses.  

Lots of lessons to be learned here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 20, 2020, 07:04:57 PM
Like what don't believe the hype?Fore warned is fore armed,can't blame them for loading up.Electrician friend reiterated yesterday that his ICU nurse daughter said they've only had 30 patients admitted since this started.Makes you wonder if people are dying of fright
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 20, 2020, 07:10:33 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 20, 2020, 07:04:57 PM
Like what don't believe the hype?Fore warned is fore armed,can't blame them for loading up.Electrician friend reiterated yesterday that his ICU nurse daughter said they've only had 30 patients admitted since this started.Makes you wonder if people are dying of fright
If she were in NY/NJ it'd be different.

Which is one of the lessons we need to learn-- don't use a sledgehammer when the scalpel is the correct tool.  It's okay to treat areas and regions differently.

This was our one shot, and in some ways, we've cried wolf.  The public won't put up with this again.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 20, 2020, 07:13:05 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 20, 2020, 06:55:26 PM
Lots of lessons to be learned here.
Good thing humanity is really great at learning lessons and applying them prudently later :57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 20, 2020, 07:13:24 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 20, 2020, 06:34:26 PM
Interesting piece...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/coronavirus-testing-pneumonia.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/coronavirus-testing-pneumonia.html)

Apparently COVID-19 can cause you to basically develop undetected pneumonia, to the point where your oxygen levels are significantly down, before you notice any shortness of breath. But then once you start feeling short of breath, the pneumonia is advanced and you're likely to need a vent. But if you catch the hypoxia early, and treat it, it's much less likely to advance and kill you...


That’s was a really good piece.  Thank you for sharing it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 20, 2020, 07:22:12 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 20, 2020, 07:13:05 PM
Good thing humanity is really great at learning lessons and applying them prudently later :57:
We do it religiously on projects at work.  Especially product roll-outs.  We capture them and review them when we begin the next product dev cycle.  I'd expect the various governments to do the same.  If not, I'll gladly send them my own post mortem dissertation on all of their failures for this go-round. :)


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 20, 2020, 07:29:44 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 20, 2020, 07:22:12 PM
We do it religiously on projects at work.  Especially product roll-outs.  We capture them and review them when we begin the next product dev cycle.  I'd expect the various governments to do the same.  If not, I'll gladly send them my own post mortem dissertation on all of their failures for this go-round. :)



Yeah, but you're trying to...


Government doesn't care about profit and they've got a bunch of guns that say there can be no competition. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 20, 2020, 07:31:48 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 20, 2020, 06:55:26 PM
Hospitals in my area are laying off large numbers of nurses and support staff already.  They're empty, preparing for a wave of COVID patients that never came.  In the meantime, they canceled all elective surgeries, which are the profitable ones. And Mayo is facing $3 billion in losses. 

Lots of lessons to be learned here.

I think our Governor turned elective surgeries back on again
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 20, 2020, 07:51:38 PM
I thought a company could learn more from failures than successes.  Where I worked, failures were shoved under the rug and never mentioned.

Oddly enough, they became more and more frequent as well.

I despised working there, really despised it.  I found a niche where I could "survive" and punch the clock and do almost nothing.

I still despise everything about them, and I still have stock options for three more years.  I'm tempted to punch them all out and pay the tax man.

My friends still there tell me it's worse, which is not possible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on April 20, 2020, 08:16:57 PM
We ordered flour, and the curbside picker substituted six cans of instant flour. Apparently the only use for this stuff is to thicken gravy, and we haven't made a gravy dish since Thanksgiving. Anyone either A) have good use for this, or B) want it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 20, 2020, 08:21:40 PM
I luv gravy, but don't make it at home much

no thanks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 20, 2020, 08:22:29 PM
I go inside the grocery myself and fill my cart

just can't find toilet paper
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on April 20, 2020, 09:34:46 PM
I think my wife's surgery center expects to open up in early May.  I think she's worked four days since March 13th.       I'm willing to bet once they can sort out the surgeon and nurse staffing, they are going to be running some rooms on Saturdays and I bet that won't stop the rest of the year. 

Another friend, a judge in Washington State, she's cringing over the likely court calendar in the months ahead.   Just about everything has been bumped and bumped and bumped.  

Were starting to realize that managing PTO/ vacation the rest of the year is going to be nuts.   I haven't taken a single day this year outside of Holidays and virtually nobody has in our company since early February. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 20, 2020, 09:58:10 PM
Check out red eye gravy sometime, on biscuits.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 20, 2020, 10:23:24 PM
I got a jury duty summons for May 1. First time ever. Hoping the court is still closed. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 20, 2020, 11:18:57 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 20, 2020, 07:10:33 PM
If she were in NY/NJ it'd be different.

Which is one of the lessons we need to learn-- don't use a sledgehammer when the scalpel is the correct tool.  It's okay to treat areas and regions differently.

This was our one shot, and in some ways, we've cried wolf.  The public won't put up with this again.
Well she is in one of the biggest,established Hospitals in Cleveland so just thought there'd be alot more cases.I will say the Governor has been out ahead of the curve on all this for quite some time.So how much is real?Circumstance?preparation?If there is another round do we blow it off or batten down the hatches?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 21, 2020, 02:08:50 AM
I wonder where blowing it off will get us....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 21, 2020, 02:17:52 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 20, 2020, 07:10:33 PM
If she were in NY/NJ it'd be different.

Which is one of the lessons we need to learn-- don't use a sledgehammer when the scalpel is the correct tool.  It's okay to treat areas and regions differently.

This was our one shot, and in some ways, we've cried wolf.  The public won't put up with this again.
No.

It'd be okay to treat areas and regions differently if no one traveled, ever.  But they do.  A lot.
If the effects of the pandemic have been underwhelming, THEN THE PLAN IS WORKING.  You're suggesting we abandon a working plan.  Stop, please.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 21, 2020, 07:00:39 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 21, 2020, 02:17:52 AM
No.

It'd be okay to treat areas and regions differently if no one traveled, ever.  But they do.  A lot.
If the effects of the pandemic have been underwhelming, THEN THE PLAN IS WORKING.  You're suggesting we abandon a working plan.  Stop, please.
Move the goalposts much?   The idea was to flatten the curve, to prevent our hospital system from being overrun.  By all reasonable accounts, that has been accomplished.  Beyond that the plan was to keep people working and do the least damage to the economic conditions that people have, to feed their families.   That is not working.

not everyone has a nannie and a fridge full of gourmet ice cream (thanks Gutfield). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on April 21, 2020, 07:04:55 AM
I hear hotel owners are just taking a beating
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2020, 07:27:51 AM
Obviously, we can't stick with this plan forever.  It has to evolve at some point.  People will disagree about when that point is reached.

I think personally we are near a point HERE where we can reopen some business operations with precautions.  We should still practice distancing and hand washing and general hygiene practices when going out.  A lot of restaurants near me have outside seating and this is the time of year for that.  Put the tables further apart and let's dine al fresco again.  If anyone personally feels vulnerable or suspicious, they of course can continue to stay indoors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 21, 2020, 07:53:42 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 21, 2020, 02:17:52 AM
No.

It'd be okay to treat areas and regions differently if no one traveled, ever.  But they do.  A lot.
If the effects of the pandemic have been underwhelming, THEN THE PLAN IS WORKING.  You're suggesting we abandon a working plan.  Stop, please.
If the effects of the pandemic have been underwhelming, it might just be because this thing isn't nearly as deadly as the mass hysteria media lead everyone to believe it was.

Two different studies looking at anti-bodies in people through random testing- one done by Stanford and another one by USC/LA County- suggest this thing is far more widespread than anybody thought and it's FAR less deadly than the media hyped it up to be. Those studies suggest the actual fatality rate is anywhere from .1 to .3%.

And there are some very prominent epidemiologists who think these lock-downs do absolutely nothing and are actually counter-productive. See: Professor Johan Glesecke who is one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, was the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, an advisor to the director general of the WHO, and an advisor to the Swedish Government.

He contends that



Everyone needs to watch him talking about it here:



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfN2JWifLCY

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/sweden-says-controversial-covid-19-strategy-is-proving-effective
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2020, 07:56:25 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 21, 2020, 07:00:39 AM
Move the goalposts much?  The idea was to flatten the curve, to prevent our hospital system from being overrun.  By all reasonable accounts, that has been accomplished.  Beyond that the plan was to keep people working and do the least damage to the economic conditions that people have, to feed their families.  That is not working.

not everyone has a nannie and TWO SUB-ZERO fridges full of gourmet ice cream (thanks Gutfield).
Fixed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 21, 2020, 08:05:12 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2020, 07:56:25 AM
Fixed.
one is a freezer and one is a fridge. Both together- cost on that set up is close to $30,000. More than a lot of people in this country make in a year. For a f##king place to store her $15 dollar a pint ice cream. That lady is such an out of touch, stupid, evil bitch and I only wish there was a hell for her to rot in. She makes my blood boil in a way that few politicians ever did. She is such a phony, hypocrite, Wall Street, big business shill that couldn't give two shits about "the working man/woman".

The Trump 2020 campaign is already grilling her. God that video ad was amazing. Calling her Nancy Antoinette and quoting her "let them eat ice cream".
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 21, 2020, 08:15:13 AM
biggest paper in Germany going in hard at Xi Jinping and China over the virus and their cover-up.

https://www.jpost.com/international/germanys-largest-paper-to-chinas-president-youre-endangering-the-world-625074

I've been seeing the same kind of stuff from UK, France, Japan, Italy, Australia media/politicians. I really think these guys cooked their own goose. China couldn't have flubbed this any worse. This will be their downfall. It's about damn time the US and it's allies woke up to the China problem. Just terrible that it took something like this to wake people up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 21, 2020, 08:22:34 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 21, 2020, 08:15:13 AM
biggest paper in Germany going in hard at Xi Jinping and China over the virus and their cover-up.

https://www.jpost.com/international/germanys-largest-paper-to-chinas-president-youre-endangering-the-world-625074

I've been seeing the same kind of stuff from UK, France, Japan, Italy, Australia media/politicians. I really think these guys cooked their own goose. China couldn't have flubbed this any worse. This will be their downfall. It's about damn time the US and it's allies woke up to the China problem. Just terrible that it took something like this to wake people up.

That’s good.  The fact that the test of the world is on this obvious human tragedy China caused, eliminates the media creed here in the USA to not talk about anything that places blame where it really belongs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on April 21, 2020, 08:31:55 AM
Maybe China was just optimistic
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 21, 2020, 08:44:24 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 21, 2020, 07:27:51 AM
Obviously, we can't stick with this plan forever.  It has to evolve at some point.  People will disagree about when that point is reached.

I think personally we are near a point HERE where we can reopen some business operations with precautions.  We should still practice distancing and hand washing and general hygiene practices when going out.  A lot of restaurants near me have outside seating and this is the time of year for that.  Put the tables further apart and let's dine al fresco again.  If anyone personally feels vulnerable or suspicious, they of course can continue to stay indoors.

Correct.  Like I said, different regions can-- and should-- treat it differently.  Scalpel, not a sledgehammer.

The only purpose of shutdowns was to flatten the curve to prevent the hospitals from becoming overrun.  It was not done to prevent the spread.  Containment is impossible.  It was NEVER possible.  

There will be future waves.  Those waves COULD last forever.  They SHOULD get smaller over time.  People still contract, and die from, the Swine Flu.  

People need to get used to the idea that this is here among us, it's here to stay, and we must learn to live with it.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 21, 2020, 08:57:14 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 21, 2020, 08:22:34 AM
That’s good.  The fact that the test of the world is on this obvious human tragedy China caused, eliminates the media creed here in the USA to not talk about anything that places blame where it really belongs.
the corporate puppets helped China become the power it is today.

In 1990, China's economy was on par with the Netherlands. In 1999 before they joined the WTO, it was not even a trillion dollar economy. Today it's the second largest economy in the entire world and is projected to surpass the US economy by 2040.

China has been aggressively trying to get it's currency used as a world reserve currency for the last 8-10 years. China's ultimate stated goal is to replace the US dollar as the worlds currency. China in 2018 just started trading oil in yuan. This was huge news that no one talks about. The petro-yuan was announced in 2017, but went into affect in 2018. It's stated goal is to replace the US dollar with the yuan as the dominant currency in which oil is traded.

China has been aggressively trying to disrupt and re-route world trade routes with it's belt and road initiative in order to dominate global trade. The US Navy dominates the worlds' oceans and thereby controls most major shipping lanes. China's belt and road initiative aims to spend trillions of dollars to build new infrastructure in countries all over the world to bypass those shipping lanes and disrupt world trade.

China has been aggressively trying to stop being just a factory mill for from Western companies- and move heavily to start to manufacturing high-value goods from Chinese state-backed companies in high-tech/high-value fields like semi-conductors, aerospace, pharmaceuticals with it's Made In China 2025 initiative. Their plan is for 70% of all high-tech/high-value that is manufactured in China to be manufactured by Chinese state-backed entities- by the year 2025. And where the hell did these bastards get any of that tech to manufacture those kind of items in high-tech/high-value fields? From US! They either stole it from us, or our very stupid companies gave them tech/trade secrets willingly via forced technology transfers for access to the Chinese market.

If the US doesn't fight those bastards tooth and nail right now, and beat them back, I am afraid of what this country will look like in the future for the younger generation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2020, 08:58:36 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on April 21, 2020, 08:31:55 AM
Maybe China was just optimistic
Nope. They were evil.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 21, 2020, 08:59:25 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 21, 2020, 08:57:14 AM
the corporate puppets helped China become the power it is today.

In 1990, China's economy was on par with the Netherlands. In 1999 before they joined the WTO, it was not even a trillion dollar economy. Today it's the second largest economy in the entire world and is projected to surpass the US economy by 2040.

China has been aggressively trying to get it's currency used as a world reserve currency for the last 8-10 years. China's ultimate stated goal is to replace the US dollar as the worlds currency. China in 2018 just started trading oil in yuan. This was huge news that no one talks about. The petro-yuan was announced in 2017, but went into affect in 2018. It's stated goal is to replace the US dollar with the yuan as the dominant currency in which oil is traded.

China has been aggressively trying to disrupt and re-route world trade routes with it's belt and road initiative in order to dominate global trade. The US Navy dominates the worlds' oceans and thereby controls most major shipping lanes. China's belt and road initiative aims to spend trillions of dollars to build new infrastructure in countries all over the world to bypass those shipping lanes and disrupt world trade.

China has been aggressively trying to stop being just a factory mill for from Western companies- and move heavily to start to manufacturing high-value goods from Chinese state-backed companies in high-tech/high-value fields like semi-conductors, aerospace, pharmaceuticals with it's Made In China 2025 initiative. Their plan is for 70% of all high-tech/high-value that is manufactured in China to be manufactured by Chinese state-backed entities- by the year 2025. And where the hell did these bastards get any of that tech to manufacture those kind of items in high-tech/high-value fields? From US! They either stole it from us, or our very stupid companies gave them tech/trade secrets willingly via forced technology transfers for access to the Chinese market.

If the US doesn't fight those bastards tooth and nail right now, and beat them back, I am afraid of what this country will look like in the future for the younger generation.
People will call you an extremist for such language.  But/ you are right!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2020, 09:00:12 AM
We still don't know some critical things about COVID that are pretty critical in how we forecast the future with it.

Is it seasonal?

Will it mutate?

What is the real R naught?

How long does immunity last for folks already exposed (or vaccinated)?

How many have had it without symptoms?  (Or had mild symptoms.)

How effective are any of the antivirals at treating the seriously ill?

Do we have anything that is prophylactic medicinally?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 21, 2020, 09:00:49 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on April 21, 2020, 08:31:55 AM
Maybe China was just optimistic
Yeah...OR...maybe they disappeared/murdered whistleblowers, scrubbed the internet, censored WeChat, reprimanded officials, destroyed evidence, and sat on key info instead of sharing it with the world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2020, 09:02:58 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 21, 2020, 09:00:12 AM
We still don't know some critical things about COVID that are pretty critical in how we forecast the future with it.

Is it seasonal?

Will it mutate?

What is the real R naught?

How long does immunity last for folks already exposed (or vaccinated)?

How many have had it without symptoms?  (Or had mild symptoms.)

How effective are any of the antivirals at treating the seriously ill?

Do we have anything that is prophylactic medicinally?
We may never have all of the answers, unless China ponies up and allows an international panel to investigate the lab in which this virus came from.

Don't hold your breath.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 21, 2020, 09:10:21 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 21, 2020, 08:59:25 AM
People will call you an extremist for such language.  But/ you are right!
It isn't extremist at all. It's just fact. The destruction of manufacturing jobs and devastation in communities all over the midwest in this country is because: China. It's so obvious and the evidence bears that out.

China is the enemy. Maybe instead of peddling obvious Russiagate conspiracy bullshit for 3 god damn years in DC- they should've been trying to figure out what to do about China.

If China succeeds in breaking the hold of the US dollar in global trade & oil, disrupting world trade routes, and in owning 70% of all high-tech/high-value sectors that are manufactured in China- the US will be finished. Every city in the country will look like Detroit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2020, 09:19:07 AM
Most US cities, maybe all of the major ones, don't rely on manufacturing today.  Atlanta relies on conventions and the hospitality industry and a lot of white collar jobs and construction.

I don't think there is ANY manufacturing in the city limits worth noting.  That probably is not unusual these days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 21, 2020, 09:26:35 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2020, 09:02:58 AM
We may never have all of the answers, unless China ponies up and allows an international panel to investigate the lab in which this virus came from.

Don't hold your breath.
Yeah, some of those answers we'll never know, and some of the ones we do discover, probably won't be for several years, and will still only be estimates and guesses.  Which is why "waiting for those answers" is something that won't, and can't, happen.

The sole purpose was to flatten the curve, and the sole purpose of that was to keep the hospitals from being overrun.  It was never possible to contain the disease, not after it left its Chinese place of origin.

Areas where hospitals haven't become overrun, must begin the process of reopening.  Areas that are still hotspots, should remain more cautious.  

And the most at-risk people, must remain cautious for a long, long time.  Or, they can make the decisions-- on their own-- to assume the risk.  This is a free country, after all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2020, 09:44:42 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 21, 2020, 09:19:07 AM
Most US cities, maybe all of the major ones, don't rely on manufacturing today.  Atlanta relies on conventions and the hospitality industry and a lot of white collar jobs and construction.

I don't think there is ANY manufacturing in the city limits worth noting.  That probably is not unusual these days.
There is quite a lot of manufacturing here in Crook County.


https://datausa.io/profile/geo/cook-county-il/

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 21, 2020, 09:51:33 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 21, 2020, 08:15:13 AM
biggest paper in Germany going in hard at Xi Jinping and China over the virus and their cover-up.
I'm confused,you have one post saying it's really not a thing .So now they're uncovering nothing?This is why people are erring on the side of caution because deep dow they are not sure.Politicians,most of them IMO are keeping options open going hard on attacking the Virus.Then flipping the script saying we have to go back to work .It's hard to cover your ass but seems everyone is fence sitting and over a barrel.I suspect COVID will have to shake out naturally which is both good and bad
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 21, 2020, 09:54:32 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2020, 09:44:42 AM
There is quite a lot of manufacturing here in Crook County.


https://datausa.io/profile/geo/cook-county-il/


Apple manufactures the Mac Pro right here in Austin.

I'll be very surprised if my company doesn't move some of our Western Hemisphere manufacturing back to Austin and Nashville, as well. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 21, 2020, 09:59:41 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 21, 2020, 07:27:51 AM
Obviously, we can't stick with this plan forever.  It has to evolve at some point.  People will disagree about when that point is reached.
This is pretty much the crux of the last 2-3 months .This Apocalypse mode is a bandaid and is a precurser to something wicked this way comes if we don't open things up and start taking our cuts.Precautions doing more damage than it's prevented - IMO of course
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 21, 2020, 10:08:35 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 20, 2020, 07:10:33 PM
If she were in NY/NJ it'd be different.

Which is one of the lessons we need to learn-- don't use a sledgehammer when the scalpel is the correct tool.  It's okay to treat areas and regions differently.

This was our one shot, and in some ways, we've cried wolf.  The public won't put up with this again.




Reminds me of hurricane season.

At some point, some folks over prepare and others try to ride it out. And sometimes the former take great costs, and at sometimes the latter do. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on April 21, 2020, 10:08:59 AM
Oktoberfest in Munich is cancelled. 

This does not bode well for the prospect of any mass gatherings for the rest of 2020.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 21, 2020, 10:14:02 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 21, 2020, 07:00:39 AM

not everyone has a nannie and a fridge full of gourmet ice cream (thanks Gutfield).
That person has a nanny? That's very weird. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 21, 2020, 10:26:57 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 21, 2020, 08:57:14 AM
the corporate puppets helped China become the power it is today.
Absolutely,the sickness of greed has poisoned this society perhaps beyond repair.How many times have CEO's left rubble were a once thriving company was.Enron for example yet walk away richer than when they showed up.At least some one got encarcerated there.Same thing with sports,who the hell was it that just signed a 330 million contract to play baseball - beisbol.Years ago I voted against the "SIN" taxes  that built the 3 Football/Baseball/Basketball venues here in NE Ohio.Owners were already raking in Billions and to save their political Lives our "Leaders"pimped their product.Yet many economists have pointed out and proven very few benefit from these debacles.The company heads sell the jobs/product to China and get kick backs and stocks packages for their treachery.Good industrious,insightful and talented people are left without income.Problem was many of these Wall Street Judases sold the future and tax base down the river for their immediate benefit.Just crazy when your making millions you'll take thousands from the middle class like the Corps(and I wish they were) didn't have enough before.Moving forward this country should repeal every rule/regulation/law brought to bare by Lobbyists - every single freaking one
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 21, 2020, 10:27:52 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on April 21, 2020, 10:08:59 AM
Oktoberfest in Munich is cancelled.

This does not bode well for the prospect of any mass gatherings for the rest of 2020.
I understand the caution, but I think this is premature.  We'll be looking at things through a very different lens a few months from now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 21, 2020, 10:31:48 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on April 21, 2020, 10:08:59 AM
Oktoberfest in Munich is cancelled.
Prolly not a bad move so tons of suds aren't sitting around spoiling,getting stale.If things clear up they could always be enterprising and erect their lemonade stands at the last moment
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2020, 10:37:23 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on April 21, 2020, 10:08:59 AM
Oktoberfest in Munich is cancelled.

This does not bode well for the prospect of any mass gatherings for the rest of 2020.
Yep, my buddy Franz (he lives there) emailed me this morning. We were going to try to make it to Munich for the festivities. Now we just hope to see them in Florida this winter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on April 21, 2020, 10:41:25 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 21, 2020, 02:17:52 AM
No.

It'd be okay to treat areas and regions differently if no one traveled, ever.  But they do.  A lot.
If the effects of the pandemic have been underwhelming, THEN THE PLAN IS WORKING.  You're suggesting we abandon a working plan.  Stop, please.

We don't know that the plan is working, There is no way to demonstrate what would have happened if the massive lockdown didn't happen. 

You have your OPINION that it worked because of the results, but there are too many factors to say that if they had just worked with the hot spots as they appeared that it would have been worst. I have the OPINION that it didn't make much of a difference because of what I have seen in the past in dealing with pandemics and what I have seen of the models that were used to create the panic.  Neither opinion is provable. Correlation can be shown, causation is a whole other story. 

And Yes I am suggesting we abandon the current plan. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2020, 10:43:46 AM
Greed is not some human drive that somehow just showed up, or increased over time.  It's inherent.  AS consumers, we look for the best value possible for us.

Is that greed?  In a sense, it is, if we know that our choice is bad for the community as a whole.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 21, 2020, 10:54:51 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 21, 2020, 10:43:46 AM
Greed is not some human drive that somehow just showed up, or increased over time.  It's inherent.  AS consumers, we look for the best value possible for us.

Is that greed?  In a sense, it is, if we know that our choice is bad for the community as a whole.

Sure, but in this case, is that really "known?" You have some folks that believe commerce with China is bad for our community.  You have some that do not.  You also have some people that view our community as the United States of America, while others view our community as the entire globe.

There are valid justifications on either side of the argument. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 21, 2020, 10:55:46 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 21, 2020, 09:19:07 AM
Most US cities, maybe all of the major ones, don't rely on manufacturing today. Atlanta relies on conventions and the hospitality industry and a lot of white collar jobs and construction.

I don't think there is ANY manufacturing in the city limits worth noting.  That probably is not unusual these days.
You're completely misunderstanding my post. My post had nothing to do with losing more manufacturing jobs. Those manufacturing jobs are already gone. Trump had a valid point when he was running for President and would say things like "Detroit crumbled while sky-scrappers rose in Shanghai" - it's the primary reason why he got elected in my humble opinion. He won the important swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania- that usually go blue- in large part because that message resonated with those millions of people in those states who had seen 30+ years of failed neo-liberal policies leave their once thriving communities in virtual ruins.

My point was this: IF China was able to re-route global trade with it's belt & road initiative, manufacture 70% of high-value/high-tech with Made in China 2025- which they come nowhere close to that at present- foreign companies Intel, AMD, Apple, US pharma, Dell, Sony, Vizio- etc., etc. dominate that type manufacturing in China- not Chinese state backed enterprises. And IF China broke the stranglehold of the US dollar as the worlds reserve currency and as the currency of the oil trade, we are done. Wrap it up. It's all she wrote.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2020, 11:01:18 AM
We all know "do gooders" (meant in a positive light) who try and be socially responsible shoppers.  They buy from companies they think are SR (often misled by PR of course).  They invest in SR companies.  They try and "buy American".

Most of us go to Walmart to get some batteries or T shirts and pick out whatever is cheapest and decent enough.  I don't think I can change the world by buying "green" T shirts, so I look for some decent brand as cheaply as I can find it.

And yes, that is in effect greed, and it isn't a new thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 21, 2020, 11:05:47 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 21, 2020, 10:43:46 AM
Greed is not some human drive that somehow just showed up, or increased over time.  It's inherent.  AS consumers, we look for the best value possible for us.

Is that greed?  In a sense, it is, if we know that our choice is bad for the community as a whole.
Well, taking China out of it for a second, I think you can look at the airlines. 

Once pricing was all transparent and easily comparable on the internet, "ticket price" became all that anyone cared about. With the exception of frequent business travelers who had loyalty based on certain levels of status due to frequent flyer miles, everyone else picked the cheapest seat they could find.

What happened? Predictably, service went out the window. Airlines started doing everything they could to get the "internet number" as low as possible, nickle-and-diming travelers for EVERY little additional thing that they could... Want to check a bag? Pay up, sucka. Want to select your seat? Pay up, sucka. Want to carry-on a bag (for some)? Pay up, sucka. For a while it was only the budget airlines that were charging for things like selecting a seat, but now even the "flagship" airlines in this country are doing it. 

As consumers, people complain about this but at the same time they'd sit on the wing of the aircraft if it would save $5/ticket, so again it's an economic "revealed preference" thing. 

So yeah, back in the old days you had to call or go to a store to find out how much something cost, and it was damn near impossible to comparison shop unless you had a LOT of time on your hands to go looking around multiple places. Now a quick perusal of the internet will let you know what that item costs anywhere and everywhere you're looking for it, and barring other factors usually the decision is made on item price and/or shipping costs. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 21, 2020, 11:12:09 AM
Quote from: Riffraft on April 21, 2020, 10:41:25 AM
And Yes I am suggesting we abandon the current plan.
We may have to do just that to keep from financial collapse.Follow protocal,gloves,masks,sanitizer,distancing and get back to the grind 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 21, 2020, 11:22:13 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 21, 2020, 11:05:47 AM
Well, taking China out of it for a second, I think you can look at the airlines.

Once pricing was all transparent and easily comparable on the internet, "ticket price" became all that anyone cared about. With the exception of frequent business travelers who had loyalty based on certain levels of status due to frequent flyer miles, everyone else picked the cheapest seat they could find.

What happened? Predictably, service went out the window. Airlines started doing everything they could to get the "internet number" as low as possible, nickle-and-diming travelers for EVERY little additional thing that they could... Want to check a bag? Pay up, sucka. Want to select your seat? Pay up, sucka. Want to carry-on a bag (for some)? Pay up, sucka. For a while it was only the budget airlines that were charging for things like selecting a seat, but now even the "flagship" airlines in this country are doing it.

As consumers, people complain about this but at the same time they'd sit on the wing of the aircraft if it would save $5/ticket, so again it's an economic "revealed preference" thing.

So yeah, back in the old days you had to call or go to a store to find out how much something cost, and it was damn near impossible to comparison shop unless you had a LOT of time on your hands to go looking around multiple places. Now a quick perusal of the internet will let you know what that item costs anywhere and everywhere you're looking for it, and barring other factors usually the decision is made on item price and/or shipping costs.
The ticket prices fell because of deregulation in 1978. The prices went into free fall way before the internet. Adjusted for inflation a round-trip flight from NY to LA would cost on average about $1,500 back in 1977. Today that number is somewhere around $500. And you can find flights way cheaper than that- you can find them for $250 or less routinely.

The service went out of the window because: monopolization/consolidation. Literally 90% of all air travel in the US is now controlled by 4 entities. Want to complain about? Want to go somewhere else? Tough shit. You have 4 options and 3 of them are basically the same level of service/customer support. The big airlines like Delta, United, and American have made record profits. Why? It's not because they had to compete with budget airlines to nickel and dime people. It's because in effect, they have protected monopolies. They can price how they want and do whatever the hell they want. 4 companies have 90% of the market. Budget airlines like Spirit and Frontier are ants on the heel of a boot compared to Delta or United or American.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 21, 2020, 11:43:53 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 21, 2020, 11:22:13 AM
The ticket prices fell because of deregulation in 1978. The prices went into free fall way before the internet. Adjusted for inflation a round-trip flight from NY to LA would cost on average about $1,500 back in 1977. Today that number is somewhere around $500. And you can find flights way cheaper than that- you can find them for $250 or less routinely.

The service went out of the window because: monopolization/consolidation. Literally 90% of all air travel in the US is now controlled by 4 entities. Want to complain about? Want to go somewhere else? Tough shit. You have 4 options and 3 of them are basically the same level of service/customer support. The big airlines like Delta, United, and American have made record profits. Why? It's not because they had to compete with budget airlines to nickel and dime people. It's because in effect, they have protected monopolies. They can price how they want and do whatever the hell they want. 4 companies have 90% of the market. Budget airlines like Spirit and Frontier are ants on the heel of a boot compared to Delta or United or American.
So... If not for deregulation followed by competition, why are the big 3 not raising their ticket prices even more? If they can charge whatever they want, how did prices get battered down to routinely being able to fly NY/LA for $250? 

And service went out the window because consumers are no longer willing to pay for a premium product. They realize it's not "glamorous" to travel, so they'll take the cheapest bus in the sky they can get on. 

I'm arguing that consumers are making decisions based on price, and that's due to competition. You're arguing that due to consolidation/monopolization that the big 3 can charge "whatever they want", i.e. there is no meaningful competition, yet prices keep dropping. If there's no competition, how do you explain prices falling?

Where I might agree with you, however, is not the travel between major cities. I think the competition there is keeping prices down. It's when you try to fly somewhere outside the major routes that the costs jump, specifically because there are so few flight options, so few carriers, and so little competition for those routes. If I want to fly round-trip from LA to NY, I have a bunch of options. If I want to fly round-trip from LA to Medford, OR, I have very few. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 21, 2020, 11:49:44 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 21, 2020, 11:05:47 AM

Once pricing was all transparent and easily comparable on the internet, "ticket price" became all that anyone cared about. With the exception of frequent business travelers who had loyalty because they were spending someone else's money and got perks, everyone else picked the cheapest seat they could find.


FIFY
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2020, 12:00:52 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 21, 2020, 11:49:44 AM
FIFY
That ended 20 years ago, maybe longer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 21, 2020, 12:05:54 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 21, 2020, 11:43:53 AM
So... If not for deregulation followed by competition, why are the big 3 not raising their ticket prices even more? If they can charge whatever they want, how did prices get battered down to routinely being able to fly NY/LA for $250?

And service went out the window because consumers are no longer willing to pay for a premium product. They realize it's not "glamorous" to travel, so they'll take the cheapest bus in the sky they can get on.

I'm arguing that consumers are making decisions based on price, and that's due to competition. You're arguing that due to consolidation/monopolization that the big 3 can charge "whatever they want", i.e. there is no meaningful competition, yet prices keep dropping. If there's no competition, how do you explain prices falling?

Where I might agree with you, however, is not the travel between major cities. I think the competition there is keeping prices down. It's when you try to fly somewhere outside the major routes that the costs jump, specifically because there are so few flight options, so few carriers, and so little competition for those routes. If I want to fly round-trip from LA to NY, I have a bunch of options. If I want to fly round-trip from LA to Medford, OR, I have very few.
Fuel prices had been at all-time lows in the history of the industry and the big boy airlines were able to upgrade their fleets to newer more fuel efficient aircraft by taking on massive amounts cheap debt. Cheap debt at 1-2% interest- which let's be frank- is absolutely nothing- new more fuel efficient planes + all-time lows in fueling costs = CHACHING. They've had a license to print money.

Prices would be even cheaper if there was more competition. There's barely any competition. Budget airlines offer tickets as low as $40 round-trip from NY to Miami. You can't even fill up a tank of gas for your car $40. Well you couldn't before the pandemic that is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 21, 2020, 12:23:28 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 21, 2020, 11:43:53 AM
 If I want to fly round-trip from LA to Medford, OR, I have very few.
Careful there don't blow your cover DB
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 21, 2020, 12:25:06 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 21, 2020, 11:49:44 AM
FIFY
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2020, 12:00:52 PM
That ended 20 years ago, maybe longer.
No, it's still possible. 

As a frequent flyer, I can't be extravagant. My company works through a third-party travel booking service and there are definitely limits on what you can and can't do. In order to go over the limits it catches the eye of people several levels above in ways you generally want to avoid lol... 

That said, there are still ways to work around it.

The first is to align your own frequent flyer programs to the company's "preferred" airlines. In my case that's American and Southwest. That was convenient because I was already primarily flying American. But when I go to Denver, and the only real options are Southwest, United, and Frontier, I try to ALWAYS make my routing on Southwest rather than diluting my points from those trips between 3 airlines. 

The second is flexible routing. I prefer to fly out of Orange County. When I fly routes that Southwest doesn't favor, I prefer to fly American. If I can't find a routing on my preferred airline that's within the guidelines/limits of the company, I'll drive up to LAX or down to San Diego for a flight. Sometimes that works out in my favor because I can't get a direct out of Orange County but can from LAX/SAN to certain cities, so the extra drive time is somewhat alleviated by the shorter flight/layover time. That's what I did for my trip to Austin a couple months ago. And it had the benefit that if I'd flown from Orange County, due to layovers and flight times I probably would have been forced to extend to a 2-night trip instead of an overnight. 

International is harder, but I haven't had to fly international for business since 2015, so I haven't had to worry about it.

It takes a little work and a little flexibility, but you can still align your flights for maximum personal benefit re: points/miles.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 21, 2020, 12:33:34 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 21, 2020, 12:05:54 PM
Fuel prices had been at all-time lows in the history of the industry and the big boy airlines were able to upgrade their fleets to newer more fuel efficient aircraft by taking on massive amounts cheap debt. Cheap debt at 1-2% interest- which let's be frank- is absolutely nothing- new more fuel efficient planes + all-time lows in fueling costs = CHACHING. They've had a license to print money.

Prices would be even cheaper if there was more competition. There's barely any competition. Budget airlines offer tickets as low as $40 round-trip from NY to Miami. You can't even fill up a tank of gas for your car $40. Well you couldn't before the pandemic that is.
Yeah, but those budget airlines aren't $40 unless you're willing to effectively fly naked. 

As mentioned, if you want to pick a seat, it's more. If you want to check a bag, it's more. If you want to CARRY ON a bag, it's more. 

Hell, Allegiant charges you $5 if you want to print a boarding pass at the airport. 

And the big boys are screwing themselves by going to the same policies, especially if you're correct that they're raking in profits. One of the reasons I prefer American/United/Delta is that I don't want to be treated the way that the budget guys treat me. If they start doing the same thing the budget guys do, I might as well fly Spirit/Frontier/Allegiant. If their profits are that high, why aren't they competing on service rather than dropping prices and dropping amenities?

It's actually one of the reasons I love Southwest. Yeah, you don't get to "pick" your seat, but if you know the system you can get a boarding pass number that gets you decent options to choose your own at boarding time. And they don't nickel and dime you over every little other thing... You actually can check or carry on bags without huge penalties. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2020, 01:06:54 PM
Your one company is not a window to how the world works.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 21, 2020, 01:21:54 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2020, 01:06:54 PM
Your one company is not a window to how the world works.
Of course not. But I also talk to a LOT of people in the same industry and when business travelers are chatting, the subject comes up. 

Every company is trying to watch things like travel / entertainment expenses / etc budgets. That doesn't mean that they all rule with an iron fist and send you steerage class everywhere you go. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2020, 01:26:55 PM
All the big pharma around here (CVS, Walgreens, Baxter, Abbott, Abvie, Baxalta, Cardinal, etc.) have cut everyone's nuts off, except executives.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2020, 01:39:06 PM
Consumers makes choices.  When I first started flying commercially, a lot of men wore coats and ties.  It was expensive, my first ticket to Pittsburg was $800 coach.  That would be $2500 or so today.  We fly cheaper and get fewer "perks", the places are mostly full, the seats are narrower with less leg room.

If you want to pay $2500 today, you can get into first class for most domestic flights easily, often it's half that.  I got first class to SF last time we went because I rate a companion ticket that is also first class.  I think it was $1200 for both, one being "free".  Sort of.

TANSTAAFL.

A LOT of stuff today is much cheaper than 30 years ago, even gasoline, when you adjust for inflation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 21, 2020, 01:44:09 PM
I'm a minimalist traveler.  I can't fathom paying X-dollars more for something that is a 4-hour flight.  It's just 4 hours or 2 hours or whatever.  Why waste a dollar more than you have to.  And I get the cheapest, tiniest rental car.  I don't understand how SUVs are rented at many hundreds of dollars per day.  It's nuts.  
Who cares what car you rent?  Your job is to not destroy it over the course of a couple of days.  That's all.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 21, 2020, 02:07:00 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 21, 2020, 01:44:09 PM
I'm a minimalist traveler.  I can't fathom paying X-dollars more for something that is a 4-hour flight.  It's just 4 hours or 2 hours or whatever.  Why waste a dollar more than you have to.  And I get the cheapest, tiniest rental car.  I don't understand how SUVs are rented at many hundreds of dollars per day.  It's nuts. 
Who cares what car you rent?  Your job is to not destroy it over the course of a couple of days.  That's all. 
Yup, I'm definitely the same.  Even when traveling for business I'm happy to save the company some money, it's no skin off my back.

The exceptions were, back when I was traveling 75% of the time, and I'd be in one place for 2-3 months at a time.  At that point, I usually rented a car that was more "fun" like a convertible in California, or a 4WD in Colorado.  When you're gone for 2-3 months, the company is buying a piece of your life, and I'm okay with having them pay extra for it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2020, 02:09:28 PM
I was minimalist when I was younger.  I'm also 6'4" (or used to be, I may have shrink laterally and gained longitudinally).

I found myself financially more "comfortable" than I expected to be at this point, even after the recent stock market slide.  I usually get something a couple notches up on rental cars and find I get upgraded often as not.  If the weather is nice, I will pay more for a convertible at times.  The wife is not a fan of cheap motels, at all.

I have to keep up appearances of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 21, 2020, 02:14:12 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 21, 2020, 01:39:06 PM
A LOT of stuff today is much cheaper than 30 years ago, even gasoline, when you adjust for inflation.
Not really. Housing, education, health care, and cars are A LOT more expensive when you adjust for inflation. You know, the things people need to, live.

Average new home price in 1990, was about $122,000. Even adjusting for inflation today that comes out to $240,000. Average new home price today is about $329,000.

Most American workers haven't seen real wage growth since 1979- they've been stagnant for basically 40 years. They've had to burden themselves with boatloads of debt in order not to go backwards in lifestyle from the generation before them.

Consumer goods like tv's and computers are a lot cheaper, but that has to do with incredible advances in technology and manufacturing. Air travel is a lot cheaper, but that has to do with deregulation and competition and low fuel prices and major advances in the manufacturing of way more fuel efficient aircraft.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2020, 02:43:33 PM
Cars are not that much more expensive when you consider what is standard today and not even available back then, plus cars are far far better vehicles than in 1980.

(https://i.imgur.com/3yRKezb.png)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 21, 2020, 03:02:15 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 21, 2020, 01:44:09 PM
I'm a minimalist traveler.  I can't fathom paying X-dollars more for something that is a 4-hour flight.  It's just 4 hours or 2 hours or whatever.  Why waste a dollar more than you have to.  
When I'm traveling alone, it's easy. When you travel with a wife/girlfriend or a family, it's harder. 

I won't pay for seat selection unless I can get it cheap if I'm alone. But if you're traveling as a group, sometimes it's necessary.


Quote
And I get the cheapest, tiniest rental car.  I don't understand how SUVs are rented at many hundreds of dollars per day.  It's nuts.  

Who cares what car you rent?  Your job is to not destroy it over the course of a couple of days.  That's all.  
Same thing. If you're traveling with a group or family, you may need to rent something larger. If not, there's not much point to renting something "fancy". 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 21, 2020, 03:03:48 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 21, 2020, 02:43:33 PM
Cars are not that much more expensive when you consider what is standard today and not even available back then, plus cars are far far better vehicles than in 1980.

(https://i.imgur.com/3yRKezb.png)
All that graph did was reiterate my point that real wages have not grown in almost 50 years.

And many cars are significantly more expensive. Especially luxury cars. Look at a Porsche 911 for instance. In 1985 a base 911 coupe was $31,000, adjusted for inflation that's about $75,000. A base 911 coupe today costs $98,000. That's a $23,000 increase. Go across the board with any car you want to compare. It's minimum several thousands of dollars more in real cost once adjusted for inflation, and as the chart you just posted shows- real wages haven't budged at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 21, 2020, 03:04:11 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2020, 01:26:55 PM
All the big pharma around here (CVS, Walgreens, Baxter, Abbott, Abvie, Baxalta, Cardinal, etc.) have cut everyone's nuts off, except executives.
How do they do it? Draconian budget limits? HR does the booking?

I've been in places that do it differently. I know when people were given options, they often chased their preferred hotel, even if there was a modest price bump, for those sweet, sweet points. My brain isn't wired that way, but some folks do love those Marriotts. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2020, 03:11:31 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 21, 2020, 03:04:11 PM
How do they do it? Draconian budget limits? HR does the booking?

I've been in places that do it differently. I know when people were given options, they often chased their preferred hotel, even if there was a modest price bump, for those sweet, sweet points. My brain isn't wired that way, but some folks do love those Marriotts.
Yes, kinda. They sub out to a travel company who keeps the purse strings tight. No preferred flight times, no upgrades, lower-end rooms, etc.

They still use Marriott and Hilton but not "Marriott" and "Hilton". More like Courtyard and Hampton.

Baxter is at $75/day on per diem, and most of their peers are right there. Ever try to eat in SF, NY, Vegas for $75?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 21, 2020, 03:14:15 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2020, 03:11:31 PM
Baxter is at $75/day on per diem, and most of their peers are right there. Ever try to eat in SF, NY, Vegas for $75?
Nearly impossible in SF or NYC- have to be #1 and #2 most over-priced cities for anything at all in the entire US. Can be done in Vegas, stay away from the strip.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 21, 2020, 03:15:15 PM
I always stay away from the Strip

even when I staying at the Wynn
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 21, 2020, 03:16:57 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 21, 2020, 03:02:15 PM
When I'm traveling alone, it's easy. When you travel with a wife/girlfriend or a family, it's harder.

I won't pay for seat selection unless I can get it cheap if I'm alone. But if you're traveling as a group, sometimes it's necessary.

Same thing. If you're traveling with a group or family, you may need to rent something larger. If not, there's not much point to renting something "fancy".

Well, that's your fault for traveling with family, lol.
I hate even just going to the store with my friends with young kids.  I love kids, but good god, I could be in and out and done before they even enter the store.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 21, 2020, 03:21:57 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 21, 2020, 02:09:28 PM
  The wife is not a fan of cheap motels, at all.

I have to keep up appearances of course.
of course
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2020, 03:25:25 PM
We stayed on business wherever "they" put us, which usually was two notches above where I would have booked.  I recall staying at the Mondrian in LA a few times and having breakfast on my balcony overlooking the city, nice memory indeed.

I traveled with one guy a few times would would get a salad at "Kroger" and a pricey bottle of wine and expense it.

Nobody ever checked anything that I knew of.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 21, 2020, 03:34:59 PM
back in the 80s working for the meat packer, I was allowed $4/breakfast, 5/lunch, and $11 for supper.

some in accounting would allow me $20/day, others wouldn't

yes, we would go to the butcher shop and purchase nice steaks and grill them in the back of the Holiday Inn - tough to expense the 12-packs
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 21, 2020, 04:03:25 PM
The few times I've eaten on the company dime, I haven't changed what I'd ordinarily do.  I guess I'm boring.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 21, 2020, 04:05:39 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 21, 2020, 04:03:25 PM
The few times I've eaten on the company dime, I haven't changed what I'd ordinarily do.  I guess I'm boring.
Good man!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2020, 04:08:17 PM
I used to interview students at Ohio State two days in a row.  It was quite tiring, and one night of that I'd dine at the Refectory.

I deserved it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 21, 2020, 04:56:24 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 21, 2020, 04:03:25 PM
The few times I've eaten on the company dime, I haven't changed what I'd ordinarily do.  I guess I'm boring.
Neither have I...

...but I've been known to eat pretty well on my own dime ;-) 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2020, 05:00:21 PM
I always had respect for the company dollar. Especially since 2001.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 21, 2020, 05:08:37 PM
I should point out that I try to keep my meals within the normal limit, and almost entirely am successful do so. When my meal cost exceeds the limit, I only expense the per diem and consider overrun to be a personal expense rather than trying to justify the overrun. 

And I usually don't eat breakfast, and sometimes skip lunch, so since we're reimbursed based on ACTUAL expenses rather just given a specific amount per meal whether we use it or not, that ends up being savings to the company.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2020, 06:09:45 PM
I usually got free breakfast at the hotel.  We had to have a receipt for a meal over $25, and that was generous.  And if you provided a receipt your boss just signed it without looking.  I don't think I ever had a boss review my expense report at all.

We had to have separate FF accounts for company travel, and when that program ended I had enough miles for a first class RT to Europe.  The company just cancelled the account, Delta couldn't find it.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 21, 2020, 06:39:09 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 21, 2020, 11:05:47 AM
Well, taking China out of it for a second, I think you can look at the airlines.

Once pricing was all transparent and easily comparable on the internet, "ticket price" became all that anyone cared about. With the exception of frequent business travelers who had loyalty based on certain levels of status due to frequent flyer miles, everyone else picked the cheapest seat they could find.

What happened? Predictably, service went out the window. Airlines started doing everything they could to get the "internet number" as low as possible, nickle-and-diming travelers for EVERY little additional thing that they could... Want to check a bag? Pay up, sucka. Want to select your seat? Pay up, sucka. Want to carry-on a bag (for some)? Pay up, sucka. For a while it was only the budget airlines that were charging for things like selecting a seat, but now even the "flagship" airlines in this country are doing it.

As consumers, people complain about this but at the same time they'd sit on the wing of the aircraft if it would save $5/ticket, so again it's an economic "revealed preference" thing.

So yeah, back in the old days you had to call or go to a store to find out how much something cost, and it was damn near impossible to comparison shop unless you had a LOT of time on your hands to go looking around multiple places. Now a quick perusal of the internet will let you know what that item costs anywhere and everywhere you're looking for it, and barring other factors usually the decision is made on item price and/or shipping costs.
There's always bad with the good.  And often vice-versa.  Back in the days of heavily regulated airlines, you had to be middle-class or above to travel by air.  And flying was generally a nice experience.  Now almost anyone can travel by air.  At least it seems that way.  People who don't appear to be able to afford to bathe or wash their clothes can afford to fly.
You are right--our actions so often contradict our stated beliefs!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 21, 2020, 06:44:33 PM
(https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/FT_17.07.18_manufacturing_decline.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 21, 2020, 06:56:58 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 21, 2020, 02:14:12 PM
Not really. Housing, education, health care, and cars are A LOT more expensive when you adjust for inflation. You know, the things people need to, live.

Average new home price in 1990, was about $122,000. Even adjusting for inflation today that comes out to $240,000. Average new home price today is about $329,000.

Most American workers haven't seen real wage growth since 1979- they've been stagnant for basically 40 years. They've had to burden themselves with boatloads of debt in order not to go backwards in lifestyle from the generation before them.

Consumer goods like tv's and computers are a lot cheaper, but that has to do with incredible advances in technology and manufacturing. Air travel is a lot cheaper, but that has to do with deregulation and competition and low fuel prices and major advances in the manufacturing of way more fuel efficient aircraft.
Cars and houses are more expensive now in constant-dollar terms.  Of course, the average car is much better and the average house is much bigger.
As for stagnant wage growth, does that include paycheck only or do side-benefits get included in that calculation.  I suspect that more people are getting more benefits from the government than was the case in 1979.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on April 21, 2020, 07:11:40 PM
There isn't going to be a college football season

https://twitter.com/HardcoreCFB/status/1252736074671165441?s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 21, 2020, 07:26:35 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 21, 2020, 03:03:48 PM
All that graph did was reiterate my point that real wages have not grown in almost 50 years.

And many cars are significantly more expensive. Especially luxury cars. Look at a Porsche 911 for instance. In 1985 a base 911 coupe was $31,000, adjusted for inflation that's about $75,000. A base 911 coupe today costs $98,000. That's a $23,000 increase. Go across the board with any car you want to compare. It's minimum several thousands of dollars more in real cost once adjusted for inflation, and as the chart you just posted shows- real wages haven't budged at all.
A basic Porsche 911 coupe today is a much better-made, better-equipped, better-performing car than a 1985 Porsche 911 coupe.  Also, government environmental and safety policies--few of which we would oppose in theory--have contributed significantly to the cost of every automobile.
Just look at fuel-economy standards.  All the cheap gains in fuel economy were made long ago.  Carmakers today are spending great sums to get 0.1-0.2 mpg improvements in the corporate average.
Airbags, better crashworthiness, anti-lock brakes, longer-lasting engines and transmissions, the list of improvements--some mandated by the free market, others by government--goes on and on.

(https://i.imgur.com/3yRKezb.png)

As for wages, I read that chart differently than you do.  I see wages having bottomed out in the '90s and showing steady growth ever since.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 21, 2020, 08:16:47 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2020, 01:26:55 PM
All the big pharma around here (CVS, Walgreens, Baxter, Abbott, Abvie, Baxalta, Cardinal, etc.) have cut everyone's nuts off, except executives.
Pharma is still pretty generous with per diems. Abbvie will allow you $100 for dinner. They cut back on the amount of alcohol you could expense at meetings but even at that I’ve seen bar bills that probably should have been kicked back but the managers just pretty much blindly approve them without really looking at them. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 21, 2020, 08:31:20 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 21, 2020, 06:44:33 PM
(https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/FT_17.07.18_manufacturing_decline.png)
This is inaccurate. It’s a gaming of statistics.

Relevant excerpts:

Thanks to a painstaking analysis by a handful of economists, it’s become clear that the data that underpin the dominant narrative—or more precisely, the way most economists interpreted the data—were way off-base. Foreign competition, not automation, was behind the stunning loss in factory jobs. And that means America’s manufacturing sector is in far worse shape than the media, politicians, and even most academics realize.

Worse than the Great Depression: America’s manufacturing jobs implosion:

In the four decades between 1960 and 2000, US manufacturing employment was basically stable, averaging around 17.5 million jobs. Even during the 1980s and 1990s, as Korea and other smaller Asian nations joined the ranks of Germany and Japan to threaten the dominance of US factories, the absolute number of manufacturing workers stayed mostly flat. That’s why what happened next is so alarming.

Between 2000 and 2010, manufacturing employment plummeted by a third. Nearly 6 million American factory workers lost their jobs. The drop was unprecedented—worse than any decade in US manufacturing history. Even during the Great Depression, factory jobs shrunk by only 31%, according to a Information Technology & Innovation Foundation report. Though the sector recovered slightly since then, America’s manufacturing workforce is still more than 26% smaller than it was in 2000.

What’s odd is that, even as US factories laid off an historically unprecedented share of workers, the amount of stuff they made rose steadily—or at least, it appeared to. The sector’s growth in output, adjusted for inflation, had been chugging away at roughly the same pace as US GDP since the late 1940s. That makes sense given that productivity—that is, advances in technology, skill, or management that allow workers to make more stuff in less time—has also been growing at a zippy clip.

How, then, do you reconcile the epic employment slump of the 2000s with the steady rise in output? The obvious conclusion is that factories needed fewer people than they did in the past because robots are now doing more and more of the producing. That’s tough for factory workers, but US manufacturing is doing fine.

That rests on the basic assumption that the manufacturing output data reflect the actual volume of stuff produced by US factories. It’s a reasonable assumption to make. Unfortunately, it’s not an accurate one.

Houseman’s light bulb moment

Economists have long been aware that computers and electronics, a relatively small sector of manufacturing, has powered much of manufacturing’s growth in output over the past few decades. But until 2009, no one had connected this fact to the puzzling paradox of surging manufacturing output alongside dwindling employment. That’s when Susan Houseman and her colleagues first took a crack at it—and, in the process, discovered something funny going on with the data.

An economist at the Upjohn Institute, an independent organization that researches employment, Houseman specializes in measuring globalization. She had been working with a team of Federal Reserve economists with access to more granular data than was publicly available, which allowed them to strip away the computers industry output from the rest of the data. That revealed just how the rest of manufacturing was doing—and it was much worse than what Houseman and her colleagues expected.

“It was staggering—it was actually staggering—how much that was contributing to growth in real [meaning, inflation-adjusted] manufacturing productivity and output,” says Houseman.
This was especially striking given that the two measures lay at the heart of the prevailing narrative that US manufacturing is growing healthily.
In 2011, Houseman and her colleagues mentioned their discovery in a paper they published in the [color=var(--color-accent, #168dd9)]Journal of Economic Perspectives (https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.25.2.111)[/url]. But the point went largely unnoticed.

Undeterred, Houseman spent the next few years digging further into why this relatively small industry was driving so much growth—and what was really going on with America’s manufacturing.

How economists calculate manufacturing output

In order to understand how the manufacturing sector is doing, economists look at how much stuff factories are making compared with previous years. The key measure of this output is “value added”: manufacturing sales, minus the cost of things like electricity and parts used in the manufacturing process. They look at this across a dozen or so manufacturing subsectors, such as paper, apparel, furniture, and chemicals.
But that figure alone isn’t enough.

To make the output volume comparable from one year to the next, the statisticians aggregating the data adjust for price changes, as well as improvements in product quality. For example, let’s say statisticians want to figure out how much the sales of Intel processors grew in 2017 versus 2016.

The problem is, the processor released in 2017 is superior to that sold in 2016 in many tangible ways. But how do you account for the fact that a 2017 processor provides users with more value? In general, statisticians assume the difference in value between the two models is just the difference in their prices. If, say, the 2017 processor costs twice as much as the 2016 one does, then selling one 2017 processor counts as selling two of the 2016 versions in the statisticians’ books.

In this hypothetical, the real output data might look like increased sales of processors. But it could also simply reflect the statisticians’ assumptions that people value their new processor more than they did earlier models, because the new version’s superior performance.

Government data wizards do this sort of quality adjustment for all sorts of products, including automobiles. However, the biggest adjustments show up in processors and the other goods made by the computers subsector, in which the blazing pace of technological change makes for dramatic and ultra-fast leaps in quality.

In other words, the method statisticians use to account for these advances can make it seem like US firms are producing and selling more computers than they actually are. And when the computers data are aggregated with the other subsectors, the adjustment makes it seem like the whole of American manufacturing is churning out more goods than it actually is.

Misreading the manufacturing
 statistics

It’s this adjustment that is the crux of economists’ misinterpretation of the health of manufacturing. There’s nothing wrong with accounting for product quality. But most economists and policymakers have failed to take into account how adjusting for quality improvements in a relatively small subsector skews the manufacturing output data.

(https://www-theatlas-com.cdn.ampproject.org/i/s/www.theatlas.com/i/atlas_BkOyIqO6f.png)

“Even though well-trained economists know that you can’t look at descriptive evidence and jump to the conclusion that productivity growth in the form of automation is causing employment declines,” says Houseman, “the evidence just looks so compelling it seems obvious that’s what going on.”

Many economists are aware of the computer industry’s outsize contributions to sector statistics. But few realize that the figures showing vast increases in manufacturing output have been dominated by a single small industry, according to Houseman.

“The dominant narrative is that there’s no problem, that it’s doing very well, and that’s kind of the end of the story, at least among economists,” she says. “Trump won to some degree arguing that trade had harmed US workers and that US manufacturing was not doing well. Very often, the mainstream media and economists were quick to point out that that’s not borne out by statistics. But that’s based on a misreading of the statistics.”

The hollowing-out hidden in the data

This erroneous notion, based solely on a statistical anomaly, long ago crystallized into deeply misleading consensus that high-tech advances in America’s manufacturing sector give it a comfortable competitive edge. And that’s not at all the case.

One way of gauging how the sector has been doing is to compare how much real output in manufacturing has grown, both with and without computers, compared to the private sector as a whole—which encompasses everything from finance and agriculture to retail and manufacturing. According to [color=var(--color-accent, #168dd9)]Houseman’s research[/color] (http://www.upjohn.org/mfg-decline.pdf), between 1947 and 1979, real output in manufacturing and the private sector expanded at about the same speed. Strip out the computer subsector from both datasets, and that trend is pretty much the same.

(https://www-theatlas-com.cdn.ampproject.org/i/s/www.theatlas.com/i/atlas_B1Pe9cOTG.png)

The divergence first emerged in the late 1970s, as the semiconductor industry took off and the computers and electronics subsector began driving growth in manufacturing output.
Between 2000 and 2016, the average growth in the sector’s real output was only about 63% of that of the private sector. But when you take out computers out of both data series, the trend is far more striking: Since 2000, manufacturing output expanded at an average pace equal to only 12% of the private sector’s average growth.

(https://www-theatlas-com.cdn.ampproject.org/i/s/www.theatlas.com/i/atlas_BJh4B5_TG.png)

In fact, according to Houseman’s data, without computers, manufacturing’s real output expanded at an average rate of only about 0.2% a year in the 2000s. By 2016, real manufacturing output, sans computers, was lower than it was in 2007.

This has grim implications for what had been assumed to be healthy productivity. As with real output, productivity growth comes mostly from the computers subsector’s quality adjustment—which means that the apparently robust growth in manufacturing productivity is mostly a mirage.

To be clear, automation did happen in manufacturing. However, throughout the 2000s, the industry was automating at about the same pace as in the rest of the private sector. And if booming robot-led productivity growth wasn’t displacing factory workers, then the sweeping scale of job losses in manufacturing necessarily stemmed from something else entirely.

The truth about automation versus trade

It’s not perfectly clear what, exactly, is the culprit behind relatively anemic growth in manufacturing output. But the signs indicate trade and globalization played a much more significant role than is commonly recognized.

Of particular importance is China’s emergence as a major exporter, which [color=var(--color-accent, #168dd9)]US leaders encouraged[/color] (http://www.slate.com/articles/business/the_next_20/2016/09/when_china_joined_the_wto_it_kick_started_the_chinese_economy_and_roused.html). A [color=var(--color-accent, #168dd9)]pair[/color] (https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.103.6.2121) of [color=var(--color-accent, #168dd9)]papers[/color] (https://www.ddorn.net/papers/Autor-Dorn-Hanson-ChinaShock.pdf) by economists David Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson, found that the parts of the US hit hard by Chinese import competition saw manufacturing job loss, falling wages, and the shrinking of their workforces. They also found that offsetting employment gains in other industries never materialized.

Another [color=var(--color-accent, #168dd9)]important paper[/color] (https://economics.mit.edu/files/9811) by this team of economists, along with MIT’s Daron Acemoglu and Brendan Price, estimated that competition from Chinese imports cost the US as many as 2.4 million jobs between 1999 and 2011.

Why did China have such a big impact? In their [color=var(--color-accent, #168dd9)]2016 study[/color] (http://faculty.som.yale.edu/peterschott/files/research/papers/pierce_schott_pntr_2016.pdf), economists Justin Pierce and Peter Schott argue that China’s accession to the WTO in 2001—set in motion by president Bill Clinton—sparked a sharp drop in US manufacturing employment. That’s because when China joined the WTO, it extinguished the risk that the US might retaliate against the Chinese government’s [color=var(--color-accent, #168dd9)]mercantilist currency[/color] (https://qz.com/795918/is-china-unfairly-devaluing-its-currency-a-primer-on-how-it-actually-works-for-donald-trump/) and protectionist [color=var(--color-accent, #168dd9)]industrial policies[/color] (https://qz.com/198458/zombies-once-destroyed-japans-economy-now-theyre-infecting-chinas/)by raising tariffs. International companies that set up shop in China therefore enjoyed the benefits of cheap labor, as well as a huge competitive edge from the Chinese government’s artificial cheapening of the yuan.

The resulting appreciation of the dollar hurt US exporters—in particular, manufacturers. A [color=var(--color-accent, #168dd9)]2017 study[/color] (https://editorialexpress.com/cgi-bin/conference/download.cgi?db_name=EEAESEM2017&paper_id=387) on the dollar’s appreciation in the early 2000s by economist Douglas Campbell found that the dollar strengthened sharply, in real terms, compared to low-wage trading partners including China. The subsequent increase in foreign imports and diminished demand for American exports resulted in a loss of around 1.5 million manufacturing jobs between 1995 and 2008.

There are also observable signs that automation wasn’t to blame. Consider the shuttering of some 78,000 manufacturing plants between 2000 and 2014, a 22% drop. This is odd given that robots, like humans, have to work somewhere. Then there’s the fact that there simply [color=var(--color-accent, #168dd9)]aren’t that many robots[/color] (https://www.theatlas.com/charts/HkuMpgHnG/) in US factories, compared with other advanced economies.

(https://www-theatlas-com.cdn.ampproject.org/i/s/www.theatlas.com/i/atlas_HkTI7gu6z.png)
The cost of complacency

Two decades of ill-founded policymaking radically restructured the US economy, and reshuffled the social order too. The America that resulted is [color=var(--color-accent, #168dd9)]more unequal[/color] (https://qz.com/1250100/income-inequality-russia-and-the-us-are-now-equally-unequal/) and more polarized than it’s been in decades, if not nearly a century.

In effect, US policymakers put diplomacy before industrial development at home, offering the massive American consumer market as a carrot to encourage other countries to open up their economies to multinational investment. Then, thanks to the popular narrative that automation was responsible for job losses in manufacturing, American leaders tended to dismiss the threat of foreign competition to a thriving manufacturing industry and minimize its importance to the overall health of the US economy.
“A lot of policymakers, not everyone, but most, just missed the boat,” says Houseman. “We didn’t have the intelligent debates about what was going on with trade, etc., because a lot of people were just denying there was any problem, period.”

The problem is that manufacturing plays a significant role in the US economy. Manufacturing jobs tend to pay better, and create opportunities for learning skills that are particularly important to workers with less formal education. Factories also encourage innovation by attracting research and development (R&D) facilities, which need access to production lines to translate design into real products and to work out the kinks in prototypes. This is why when plants shutter and are moved overseas, R&D centers almost always go with them, says Houseman. Detached from the innovative feedback loop formed with R&D, US factories struggle to compete.

The received wisdom that the US was simply becoming a service-driven economy also lulled leaders into complacency about the long-term economic and social cost of lost manufacturing jobs. The establishment assumed that the apparent increase in the sector’s output and productivity would eventually solve the problem; where there was wealth, there would be new job openings to replace lost factory work. But, as a growing heap of research shows, workers hit by mass layoffs suffer unusually big wage losses throughout their careers, and many exit the workforce entirely.

While the forces of globalization battered America’s middle class, they largely benefited the country’s emerging urban professional elite—managers, consultants, lawyers, and investment bankers enriched by booming international investment and by the cheapening of imports. And as multinational corporations and their bosses gained political clout, the interests of the middle class faded.

Two decades of complacency among US leaders gave companies in Asia and other emerging export bases time to create world-class factories and robust supply chains. Tellingly, even as the real output of the computers subsector has appeared to grow astonishingly quickly, the sector has been steadily losing market share to Asian competitors, according to a [color=var(--color-accent, #168dd9)]2014 paper[/color] (http://research.upjohn.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1226&context=up_workingpapers) by Houseman and economists Timothy Bartik and Timothy Sturgeon.

A legacy of ignorance

One reason why Houseman’s revelation is so important is that the myth of automation continues to have a strong grip on the minds of American policymakers and pundits.[/color]
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 21, 2020, 08:39:56 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2020, 05:00:21 PM
I always had respect for the company dollar. Especially since 2001.
My company is garbage, and I still feel weird when I somehow end up with a bill over $25. Honestly, if it's close, I'll pay the tip in cash.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 21, 2020, 08:42:05 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2020, 03:11:31 PM

Baxter is at $75/day on per diem, and most of their peers are right there. Ever try to eat in SF, NY, Vegas for $75?
Can be done, probably pretty easily. 

If you want a waiter every place, you're in trouble. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 21, 2020, 08:44:38 PM
Quote from: ELA on April 21, 2020, 07:11:40 PM
There isn't going to be a college football season

https://twitter.com/HardcoreCFB/status/1252736074671165441?s=19
That tweet is pretty alarmist.

They have to take 10 days off across 90 or so days. You have one coach not working every 10 days, not ideal, but most workable. (And TBH, they could probably negotiate to just give back money and keep working if they really want to)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2020, 09:06:47 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 21, 2020, 08:42:05 PM
Can be done, probably pretty easily.

If you want a waiter every place, you're in trouble.
We like to be served. 20 years ago we didn't mind anything. We do now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 21, 2020, 10:07:24 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2020, 03:11:31 PM
Yes, kinda. They sub out to a travel company who keeps the purse strings tight. No preferred flight times, no upgrades, lower-end rooms, etc.

They still use Marriott and Hilton but not "Marriott" and "Hilton". More like Courtyard and Hampton.

Baxter is at $75/day on per diem, and most of their peers are right there. Ever try to eat in SF, NY, Vegas for $75?
I was out in San Francisco in the summer of 2018, we ate out every meal, and I never spent $75 a day for one person.  Average day was probably $50-60.  This was mostly at eateries near our hotel, which was downtown.
Haven't been in Las Vegas since I was a kid, and not in NYC in over 20 years, so I have no idea there.  But I'll bet you're at least right about NYC, as that place was expensive in the '90s.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 21, 2020, 10:51:31 PM
Automation may not have been the reason that manufacturing declined in the first place, but it is the reason that manufacturing doesn't create nearly as many jobs as it used to, especially compared to other sectors of the economy. The maroon line on this chart shows the absolute number of manufacturing jobs never recovered from 2008 and probably never will, while the blue line shows that as a percentage of total jobs in the economy, those jobs get destroyed with every recession and the percentage never goes up.

(https://i.imgur.com/VDnsXdy.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 21, 2020, 11:01:18 PM
I thought cost was why we don't manufacture anymore.  You have to pay an American worker way more than a kid in China.  No?  


We do have a problem here, or a fear I should say, of being on the leading edge of technology/machines/robots/A.I..  Yes, it's going to take a lot of reeeeally cushy factory jobs.  Artificially delaying it will only make it worse when it inevitably happens.  

Why do people cling so tightly to shitty jobs?  Like the coal workers.  Why does it matter so much that you do what your grandpappy did?  Why do you WANT a miserable existence?  No, the unknown is not always worse than the unpleasantness of the known.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 21, 2020, 11:33:48 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 21, 2020, 11:01:18 PM
I thought cost was why we don't manufacture anymore.  You have to pay an American worker way more than a kid in China.  No? 


We do have a problem here, or a fear I should say, of being on the leading edge of technology/machines/robots/A.I..  Yes, it's going to take a lot of reeeeally cushy factory jobs.  Artificially delaying it will only make it worse when it inevitably happens. 

Why do people cling so tightly to shitty jobs?  Like the coal workers.  Why does it matter so much that you do what your grandpappy did?  Why do you WANT a miserable existence?  No, the unknown is not always worse than the unpleasantness of the known.

A lot of people fear and/or hate change, unfortunately.

But the coal industry is a prime example. Even before natural gas started the demise of coal power, automation was destroying mining jobs, anyway. As it is, gas plants have ~20% of the workers of an equivalent coal plant. I'm a broken record about this, but meanwhile there are many more blue collar jobs in wind, solar, and energy efficiency (though they're all suffering right now, just like many other jobs that can't be done remotely), which won't be automated, and it will take a long time to deploy all of that infrastructure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 21, 2020, 11:37:24 PM
They're all battling to be the last sap with black-lung in the last coal mine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 21, 2020, 11:38:26 PM
Urbana (OH) University has permanently closed. They were NCAA D2.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_banners/3282613472/1566563177/600x200)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 21, 2020, 11:48:50 PM
This is probably also going to accelerate the closure of lower-profile private small colleges that don't have very big endowments so they're very tuition dependent. It's already been happening over the past decade or so. Those in the Northeast and Midwest are at greatest risk since the number of college-aged students has been steadily decreasing since 2010 or so. This is expected to be an even bigger issue in about five years because the fertility rate has fallen substantially during and since the 2008 recession.

In the short term, if the job market doesn't recover quickly, it could be a boon for graduate programs, community colleges, and other public colleges that tend to have older students, of course, similar to the last recession, especially those with online programs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 22, 2020, 12:46:56 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 21, 2020, 11:37:24 PM
They're all battling to be the last sap with black-lung in the last coal mine.
No, that's not what they are doing.  They're trying to make a living.
Easy for you to dismiss them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 22, 2020, 01:07:32 AM
Yup OAM talks out of both sides of his mouth,Robber barons have done way more damage than people hanging on to shitty jobs.And he pisses and moans about both of them.Some folks have families with no recourse,
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 02:44:28 AM
It's not an either/or thing.  So while you call it talking out of both sides, the answer to nearly every either/or is BOTH.  Yes, the ultra wealthy have "won" under the current structure and are motivated to prevent change, often unethically  AND yes, the coal miners in 2020 are playing the violin on the Titanic.  They aren't educated and lack the confidence to try something new.  Both are true.  And I'm the asshole for pointing this out?

My crime is having been raised by parents who gave a damn.  I'm a jerk because I'm smart and educated, which SORRY, doesn't nulify my right to speak about coal miners.  No one forced them to have 4 kids, raising them to be coal miners.  Hell, Mr. Peabody probably sent someone around to every store to buy up all the condoms in KY/WV.  Got to pump out that next generation of workers! 

I'm the jerk because an entire group of people failed at instilling confidence and the bravery to go out to do something new with their lives.  This sickness of doing something because it was good enough for your parents is how the rich hold entire towns under their thumb, it's how religions survive despite lacking any evidence, and it's how our economic foundations pause - thus rewarding those who have already "won."

But I'm the jerk.  Thanks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 02:46:18 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 22, 2020, 12:46:56 AM
No, that's not what they are doing.  They're trying to make a living.
Easy for you to dismiss them.
It's not fair to blame them for their narrow scope of possibility.  It is fair to blame them for ignoring it.  The moment a person becomes aware of their plight, it's on them to combat it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 22, 2020, 03:32:47 AM
Your circumstances were different - there but by the grace of god go I.You obviously couldn't give a shit after a limpdick remark like that.Oh your parents cared - so much so they would produce a snot who shits on the less fortunate.Why don't you spend your time working with the less fortunate rather than lampooning them,since you are so gifted .But I'll get off the board now you may want to badmouth Special Olympians
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2020, 09:20:29 AM
Quote from: Kris60 on April 21, 2020, 08:16:47 PM
Pharma is still pretty generous with per diems. Abbvie will allow you $100 for dinner. They cut back on the amount of alcohol you could expense at meetings but even at that I’ve seen bar bills that probably should have been kicked back but the managers just pretty much blindly approve them without really looking at them.
In sales, when you're out with a client, Baxter had no limit (except a 2 drink max).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2020, 09:25:48 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 02:46:18 AM
It's not fair to blame them for their narrow scope of possibility.  It is fair to blame them for ignoring it.  The moment a person becomes aware of their plight, it's on them to combat it.
I've got a few neighborhoods in Chicago that could use a speech on this.


(https://www.americanthinker.com/legacy_assets/articles/assets/Black_chicago1.gif)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 22, 2020, 09:36:36 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 21, 2020, 11:01:18 PM


Why do people cling so tightly to shitty jobs?  Like the coal workers.  Why does it matter so much that you do what your grandpappy did?  Why do you WANT a miserable existence?  No, the unknown is not always worse than the unpleasantness of the known.
In the case of coal mining it’s money.  I’ve known college educated men to give up lesser paying white collar jobs to go in the mines because they could make more.

And not everyone considers it a miserable existence.  I have an uncle who worked in the mines basically his entire adult life.  He retired a few years ago. He supported his wife and four kids with the job and while he is enjoying retirement also says he sometimes misses the work. And while I don’t know for sure I believe he retired to seven figures in his 401k.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 22, 2020, 09:45:43 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 21, 2020, 11:01:18 PM
I thought cost was why we don't manufacture anymore.  You have to pay an American worker way more than a kid in China.  No? 

We do have a problem here, or a fear I should say, of being on the leading edge of technology/machines/robots/A.I..  Yes, it's going to take a lot of reeeeally cushy factory jobs.  Artificially delaying it will only make it worse when it inevitably happens. 
It's not automation, it's communication. 

Prior to the internet, high-tech complex manufacturing was very difficult to outsource. The on-the-ground expertise and real-time communication to the design/engineering teams needed made it difficult to produce quality products. 

That all changed, dramatically, over the last 20 years. With most everything being done/stored electronically, with rich communication (email w/attachments, even video conferencing) the ability to transmit complex information back and forth, and with cheap voice communication (VOIP rather than the old-school long distance plan), it's basically shrunk the globe to the point where "over there" is no longer very far away. 

Working across time zones can still be a PITA, but that's more of an annoyance than a hard constraint. For some teams, it can actually be a benefit, because people working in the US during our day can hand findings off to Asia who can continue the work while we sleep, and then have results/findings ready to review back in the US when we wake up. Rinse/repeat. 

Prior to the internet, it was impossible to take advantage of foreign low-cost labor except for easy-to-produce goods. Now we can do so, and further, increases in education in places like China/India mean that they also have high-skill workers available too. A software engineer in Bangalore costs a lot less  to employ than a software engineer in San Jose. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 22, 2020, 09:46:24 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2020, 09:20:29 AM
In sales, when you're out with a client, Baxter had no limit (except a 2 drink max).
Ah, I see what you mean now. I was talking about what I could spend on me at meetings or when I had to be out of town.

By the time I got in it field reps couldn’t take customers out unless it was a formal educational dinner. And even then we had a $100 per person limit.  Yes, upper level management can still do that but I honestly don’t know if they have a limit or not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 22, 2020, 09:48:16 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2020, 09:25:48 AM
I've got a few neighborhoods in Chicago that could use a speech on this.


(https://www.americanthinker.com/legacy_assets/articles/assets/Black_chicago1.gif)
Different demographic than coal miners
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2020, 09:59:34 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 22, 2020, 09:48:16 AM
Different demographic than coal miners
The point stands.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2020, 10:03:38 AM
Quote from: Kris60 on April 22, 2020, 09:46:24 AM
Ah, I see what you mean now. I was talking about what I could spend on me at meetings or when I had to be out of town.

By the time I got in it field reps couldn’t take customers out unless it was a formal educational dinner. And even then we had a $100 per person limit.  Yes, upper level management can still do that but I honestly don’t know if they have a limit or not.
Yeah, the sales force was different.

As for, say, a convention? Lots of marketing and communications staff go to those, and they generally happen in expensive places.

Sure, you can eat cheaper in Vegas and SF, but you'd better be prepared for a (non-reimbursable) cab ride to find those places to eat cheaper. Otherwise, you're on the $75. I know my wife and her peers used to just do a breakfast bar and that type of stuff so they would have enough money to have dinner, without getting into a cab. You cannot do $75/day on the strip/SF/NY or anywhere near convention centers, really, unless you go lean at lunch and breakfast.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 22, 2020, 10:19:44 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2020, 10:03:38 AM
Yeah, the sales force was different.

As for, say, a convention? Lots of marketing and communications staff go to those, and they generally happen in expensive places.

Sure, you can eat cheaper in Vegas and SF, but you'd better be prepared for a (non-reimbursable) cab ride to find those places to eat cheaper. Otherwise, you're on the $75. I know my wife and her peers used to just do a breakfast bar and that type of stuff so they would have enough money to have dinner, without getting into a cab. You cannot do $75/day on the strip/SF/NY or anywhere near convention centers, really, unless you go lean at lunch and breakfast.
Now I will say that anytime I took a cab or Uber to go to dinner I expensed it and it was always approved.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2020, 10:26:14 AM
You were in sales though. Regular staff, probably not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 22, 2020, 10:39:32 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2020, 09:59:34 AM
The point stands.
agreed,change policies speeches fall on deaf ears
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 10:50:31 AM
Quote from: Kris60 on April 22, 2020, 09:36:36 AM
In the case of coal mining it’s money.  I’ve known college educated men to give up lesser paying white collar jobs to go in the mines because they could make more.

And not everyone considers it a miserable existence.  I have an uncle who worked in the mines basically his entire adult life.  He retired a few years ago. He supported his wife and four kids with the job and while he is enjoying retirement also says he sometimes misses the work. And while I don’t know for sure I believe he retired to seven figures in his 401k.
Thank you for replying to my question.  Some here are a little too sensitive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 10:50:54 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 22, 2020, 03:32:47 AM
Your circumstances were different - there but by the grace of god go I.You obviously couldn't give a shit after a limpdick remark like that.Oh your parents cared - so much so they would produce a snot who shits on the less fortunate.Why don't you spend your time working with the less fortunate rather than lampooning them,since you are so gifted .But I'll get off the board now you may want to badmouth Special Olympians
Exhibit A
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 10:54:28 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2020, 09:25:48 AM
I've got a few neighborhoods in Chicago that could use a speech on this.


(https://www.americanthinker.com/legacy_assets/articles/assets/Black_chicago1.gif)
I don't think there's an unknown, probably larger-than-you'd-think portion of the population who doesn't like coal miners.  That is the case, however, for our friends on your map.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 22, 2020, 10:58:30 AM
Why should I dislike coal miners?  I don't know any of them today personally.  I can see disliking mining companies, but the workers?

Why?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 22, 2020, 11:12:19 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 22, 2020, 10:58:30 AM
Why should I dislike coal miners?  I don't know any of them today personally.  I can see disliking mining companies, but the workers?

Why?
Because his parents raised him to be smart.We know this because he has told us so
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 22, 2020, 11:16:15 AM
A Harris county judge has issued orders for everyone to wear a mask when outside in Houston

subject to a $1,000 fine

this is bull shit
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 22, 2020, 11:21:17 AM
Depends on the cop but they prolly have more pressing problems and would give warnings
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 22, 2020, 11:23:17 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 10:54:28 AM
I don't think there's an unknown, probably larger-than-you'd-think portion of the population who doesn't like coal miners.  That is the case, however, for our friends on your map.
C'mon, Afro!  It's OK to shit on coal miners because they are white, but not OK to shit on inner-city residents because they are disproportionately black?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2020, 11:25:39 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 22, 2020, 11:23:17 AM
C'mon, Afro!  It's OK to shit on coal miners because they are white, but not OK to shit on inner-city residents because they are disproportionately black?
The point is that it's not easy to invoke changes upon people who a) don't know anything different, b) don't want to know, or c) refuse assistance in changing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 22, 2020, 11:33:40 AM


Coal country would be an awesome place to live if you were independently wealthy, and didn't have to figure out a way to earn a living.

The Chicago ghettos, not so much. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 22, 2020, 11:45:27 AM
And that is a very valid point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 22, 2020, 12:22:46 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2020, 11:25:39 AM
The point is that it's not easy to invoke changes upon people who a) don't know anything different, b) don't want to know, or c) refuse assistance in changing.
They're all battling to be the last sap with black-lung in the last coal mine.



That was hardly the context of the post in question
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 22, 2020, 12:36:34 PM
so, how's the virus going in coal miner's daughter's country?

more deaths as a percentage because of the lung problems?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 22, 2020, 12:43:37 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2020, 09:25:48 AM
I've got a few neighborhoods in Chicago that could use a speech on this.


(https://www.americanthinker.com/legacy_assets/articles/assets/Black_chicago1.gif)
Sorry, but I can't see this map without thinking, "wow, it's almost as if someone 'red-lined' some neighborhoods there--oh wait; that's exactly what happened."

In both coal country and Chicago (and a lot of other places), the story is a lot more complex than "those lazy poor people."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2020, 12:46:42 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 22, 2020, 12:22:46 PM
That was hardly the context of the post in question
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 02:46:18 AM

It's not fair to blame them for their narrow scope of possibility.  It is fair to blame them for ignoring it.  The moment a person becomes aware of their plight, it's on them to combat it.
You sure? I didn't say anything about the context of the topic at hand. The above post applies to my point: Change is hard.

My point stands.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2020, 12:47:17 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on April 22, 2020, 12:43:37 PM
Sorry, but I can't see this map without thinking, "wow, it's almost as if someone 'red-lined' some neighborhoods there--oh wait; that's exactly what happened."

In both coal country and Chicago (and a lot of other places), the story is a lot more complex than "those lazy poor people."
Correct. Change is hard.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 22, 2020, 01:11:05 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2020, 12:46:42 PM
You sure? I didn't say anything about the context of the topic at hand. The above post applies to my point: Change is hard.

My point stands.

So does mine.That is not the quote CWS and myself responded to
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 22, 2020, 01:42:49 PM
OAM’s biggest problem is that he can’t fathom people have a different opinion than he does. If he deems coal mining a “shitty job” then he thinks it is universally regarded that way.

Every comment he makes regarding the subject is based on the belief that no one would want to do that for a living and the people doing it are incapable of change and just accept their plight.

Coal mining is hard and dangerous work and it isn’t something that OAM or me or maybe anyone else on here would want to, but some people do for the trade off of good money.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 22, 2020, 01:52:10 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on April 22, 2020, 11:23:17 AM

C'mon, Afro!  It's OK to shit on coal miners because they are white, but not OK to shit on inner-city residents because they are disproportionately black?
I don't condone OAM's tone, as I think it's not productive, but I think some of the shared dynamics are interesting. 

Shoot, I'm sure there was a long time when those self-same coal miners would shit on those inner-city residents for many of the social problems that now are hitting coal country. 

The gaps are interesting because obviously the problems are newer to coal country and the intransigence is a bit different. One group once had something, and feels it deserves that still, the other for the most part has not had that stability within several generations. And the thing they're trying to bring back is almost assuredly not coming back, which means demanding it is a different kind of self-dilusion (not that the inner cities don't have their own brand of that, or even white-collar work for that matter).

On gap that I think is most notable is a sort of socialization when it comes to certain social structures and the work/payoff model. Some of that might reference the idea of savings (i.e., if you grow up super poor, you often treat money as something to be spent as compared to something to be rationed in certain ways). And some is about establishing a careerist structure. Our former miners know a life with that career as a guide, whereas many inner-city residents often do not. In theory they've been raised to see a bigger picture, but couldn't see a bigger picture still. Uncharitably one could blame it on intransigence, more charitably on a natural desire to hold onto the shell of once was. 

(There's also an interesting question of if it's easier to leave rural mining country or the inner city. History has seen more departures from the former to the latter, but it's still complicated)

I suppose one's gap in empathy might revolve around the sense our group of coal miners should be, in theory, in better shape to pivot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 22, 2020, 01:56:36 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on April 22, 2020, 01:42:49 PM
OAM’s biggest problem is that he can’t fathom people have a different opinion than he does. If he deems coal mining a “shitty job” then he thinks it is universally regarded that way.

Every comment he makes regarding the subject is based on the belief that no one would want to do that for a living and the people doing it are incapable of change and just accept their plight.

Coal mining is hard and dangerous work and it isn’t something that OAM or me or maybe anyone else on here would want to, but some people do for the trade off of good money.


I've done many crap jobs for decent money
working in a meat packing plant is just one of them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 22, 2020, 01:59:36 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 22, 2020, 01:52:10 PM
Shoot, I'm sure there was a long time when those self-same coal miners would shit on those inner-city residents for many of the social problems that now are hitting coal country.
Perhaps there's always a few,the folks I knew from WV would share their last cracker with you.The only time they looked down on someone was when they were helping them up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 22, 2020, 02:29:08 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 22, 2020, 01:59:36 PM
Perhaps there's always a few,the folks I knew from WV would share their last cracker with you.The only time they looked down on someone was when they were helping them up.
There's a snarky thing I want to write, but it would lead down the road to me getting cussed out again, so I shall refrain. 

Perhaps in the good times, I wouldn't have heard nary a word about "personal responsibility" when discussing the social plights of urban decay in large cities. I hope I would've heard a lot of empathy and talk of charity. I hope that's the case.

(What would be the closest city to WV that saw that sort of trouble? Probably Youngstown?)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 22, 2020, 02:42:37 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 22, 2020, 02:29:08 PM
There's a snarky thing I want to write, but it would lead down the road to me getting cussed out again, so I shall refrain.

Perhaps in the good times, I wouldn't have heard nary a word about "personal responsibility" when discussing the social plights of urban decay in large cities. I hope I would've heard a lot of empathy and talk of charity. I hope that's the case.

(What would be the closest city to WV that saw that sort of trouble? Probably Youngstown?)
You would have heard plenty of coal miners discussing that people in the inner city needed to take personal responsibility for their plight.  Plenty would have given them their last cracker, and plenty would have done both.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on April 22, 2020, 02:45:12 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 22, 2020, 01:56:36 PM
I've done many crap jobs for decent money
working in a meat packing plant is just one of them
Hell, you've GIVEN money for the past two decades of Nebraska football!


:57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 22, 2020, 02:58:57 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 10:54:28 AM
I don't think there's an unknown, probably larger-than-you'd-think portion of the population who doesn't like coal miners.  That is the case, however, for our friends on your map. 
Yawn. Yep. It’s totally racism keeping those people down.

Not most of their local governments being ridiculously corrupt. Not the people committing crimes at a higher rates in those neighborhoods than other neighborhoods. Not all the single parent out of wedlock families where many men and women are having multiple children with different partners at much higher % than other groups. Not three to four decades of failed neo-liberal economic policy by a corrupt political class that couldn’t give two shits about them. Not a complete joke of an educational system. Not a complete joke of a health care system.

You’re right. It’s just that big bad racism.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 03:04:49 PM
There's an important distinction here between the coal miners (who haven't been shit on by anyone here) and poor black people in Chicago:  I specify coal miners not because they're white or poor or country or conservative or stupid.  It's because their industry is at an end.  THAT is why they're the topic here.

I know I'll get some stats thrown back about how much we still rely on coal and this and that, but we all know it's just about over for that industry here in the U.S.  Whether it's five years or 15 or 50, it's a dead stick industry.  And the end has been visible for some time now.  

So YES, while change is hard, and NO, there's nothing wrong with doing a hard job for the money, there is room to criticize the last to adjust and adapt.  I'm not some asshat who decided to be mean to coal miners yesterday - their situation is unique and unfortunate and there seems to be a lack of wilingness to face the reality of things.  That's all.

And the coal companies harbor more blame than I could probably type out in several hours.  Including one aspect is the B.S. nobility of the guy who works in a mine his whole life to put dinner on the table.  I'mm sure many will call this B.S., but I'm sure some back-room crap goes on in order to push the narrative that it's tough and cool and admirable to be the peons of a billion-dollar company.  I'd call it sad.  

I want something better for them while they're seemingly refusing to take the steps necessary for that something better.  Yes, the unknown is scary, and as we've said, change is hard.  But it's necessary sometimes.  And not one anecdote changes that, sorry.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 03:05:57 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 22, 2020, 02:58:57 PM
Yawn. Yep. It’s totally racism keeping those people down.

Not most of their local governments being ridiculously corrupt. Not the people committing crimes at a higher rates in those neighborhoods than other neighborhoods. Not all the single parent out of wedlock families where many men and women are having multiple children with different partners at much higher % than other groups. Not three to four decades of failed neo-liberal economic policy by a corrupt political class that couldn’t give two shits about them. Not a complete joke of an educational system. Not a complete joke of a health care system.

You’re right. It’s just that big bad racism.
You're listing a bunch of effects and ignoring the cause.  Thank you for contributing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 22, 2020, 03:06:23 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on April 22, 2020, 02:42:37 PM
You would have heard plenty of coal miners discussing that people in the inner city needed to take personal responsibility for their plight.  Plenty would have given them their last cracker, and plenty would have done both.
Hope so on the last part. 

(As I posted, there was a new reply, and it's long and from OAM, and I imagine much fire will follow. Just be good to each other)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 03:07:42 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on April 22, 2020, 01:42:49 PM
OAM’s biggest problem is that he can’t fathom people have a different opinion than he does. If he deems coal mining a “shitty job” then he thinks it is universally regarded that way.

Every comment he makes regarding the subject is based on the belief that no one would want to do that for a living and the people doing it are incapable of change and just accept their plight.

Coal mining is hard and dangerous work and it isn’t something that OAM or me or maybe anyone else on here would want to, but some people do for the trade off of good money.
Let's define a "shitty job" as any job no one would choose if all jobs paid the same.  How about that?  Now is it a shitty job?  To me, the shittiness of a job has nothing to do with the paycheck you take home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 03:10:06 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 22, 2020, 11:12:19 AM
Because his parents raised him to be smart.We know this because he has told us so
No, I'm  smart by sheer dumb luck.  My parents did value education and so I'm educated.  They are two very different things.  There are incredibly smart people mining coal and doing whatever you envision a poor black guy does in Chicago, but they weren't educated past a certain point.  Not their fault.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 03:10:52 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on April 22, 2020, 12:43:37 PM
 the story is a lot more complex than "those lazy poor people."
Who used that word first?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 03:12:16 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on April 22, 2020, 01:42:49 PM
OAM’s biggest problem is that he can’t fathom people have a different opinion than he does. 
Actually, I long for differing opinions backed up by evidence and a justification exceeding the anecdotal.  But unfortunately, it's rare.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2020, 03:14:36 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 22, 2020, 01:11:05 PM
So does mine.That is not the quote CWS and myself responded to
I know this. The one I responded to was different.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 03:17:38 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 02:46:18 AM
It's not fair to blame them for their narrow scope of possibility.  It is fair to blame them for ignoring it.  The moment a person becomes aware of their plight, it's on them to combat it.
i mean, even this one, from generation to generation, the idea is out there.  You see it in the movies - the dad forbids the son from settling for his meager life (yes, it's just a movie, but we see it over and over and is born of reality), and the son wants to and tries.....but the "failure" would be in him staying in the same town he grew up in, with the same career his dad had.

No, leaving isn't the important thing, although for many small mining towns, it may be required.  But doing something else, almost anything else, is the goal.  I'm empathetic for them, not attacking them.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 22, 2020, 03:28:27 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 03:05:57 PM
You're listing a bunch of effects and ignoring the cause.  Thank you for contributing.
I’m not ignoring anything. You are. It has nothing to do with racism. It has everything to do with class. There are two classes in this country- rich and poor. Rich people give the same amount of f##ks about poor white people as they do about poor black people: none.

What you’re seeing in neighborhoods like that are the effects of high paying, low skill manual labor manufacturing jobs being gutted and entire industries collapsing in a chain reaction. Detroit has under 700,000 residents today, it is one of the poorest cities in the country, and looks like a literal war zone. In the 1960’s it was a city of almost 2 million residents and the richest city in the entire world. That’s why Detroit became a major hub for black people- they were able to flee the south and head north and get good paying jobs in manufacturing that didn’t require skill. And other entire industries and economies built up around the manufacturing jobs. See: Motown, 1950s/60s Detroit.

All of the out-sourcing and capital flight with the financialization of the US economy hurt these people the most. A corrupt, morally bankrupt political class of Democrats- which they shockingly continue to vote for- did them in. All of this has very little to do with race. That’s just pure and utter bullshit and side-tracking and avoiding all of the many the real problems that exist.

When you have cities losing entire industries and enormous numbers of quality paying low-skill jobs, and corrupt politicians that do absolutely nothing about providing legitimate health-care or improving education- you get cities like Detroit. Poverty breeds crime, drug & alcohol addictions, and poorer people tend to have way more children and children out of wedlock as well.

To blame it all on racism and think that is the cause is just astoundingly small minded and stupid and it’s not looking at a big picture with a lot of moving, complex parts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2020, 03:33:13 PM
Coronavirus Stream of Unconsciousness.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 03:34:39 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 22, 2020, 03:28:27 PM
is just astoundingly small minded and stupid and it’s not looking at a big picture with a lot of moving, complex parts.
So is blaming one political party.  
Never did I specify that race was the only factor, nor that it didn't include moving, complex parts.  I give everyone here the respect enough to assume you understand racism exists and causes major problems.  Please do me the courtesy of assuming I know race isn't the singular issue causing all of the inequalities in our country.

Due to the posts leading up to mine, I pictured a handful of people from WV and a handful chosen from urban Chicago standing next to each other.  Yes, the initial, stark contrast of those 2 groups is going to be race.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 03:35:36 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2020, 03:33:13 PM
Coronavirus Stream of Unconsciousness.
Yes, let's get back to where the break-even point is on the sliding scale of lives vs economy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 03:36:14 PM
Coal miners have it good, racism isn't a thing, and I'm an arrogant turd.  I think we all agree.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 22, 2020, 03:41:43 PM
OAM if coal mining was safe with no disease attached to it would you feel differently
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on April 22, 2020, 03:43:09 PM
Per today's briefing, U of Minnesota and Mayo Clinic (med school, CSE, CBS, and College of Design) getting things configured so that they can pump through 20K tests, both antibody and molecular, per day. Damn good work from them. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 22, 2020, 03:46:13 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on April 22, 2020, 03:43:09 PM
Per today's briefing, U of Minnesota and Mayo Clinic (med school, CSE, CBS, and College of Design) getting things configured so that they can pump through 20K tests, both antibody and molecular, per day. Damn good work from them.
This means I might have to be nice to Minnesota. I don't approve.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 22, 2020, 03:47:20 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 22, 2020, 03:28:27 PM
What you’re seeing in neighborhoods like that are the effects of high paying, low skill manual labor manufacturing jobs being gutted and entire industries collapsing in a chain reaction. Detroit has under 700,000 residents today, it is one of the poorest cities in the country, and looks like a literal war zone. In the 1960’s it was a city of almost 2 million residents and the richest city in the entire world. That’s why Detroit became a major hub for black people- they were able to flee the south and head north and get good paying jobs in manufacturing that didn’t require skill. And other entire industries and economies built up around the manufacturing jobs. See: Motown, 1950s/60s Detroit.

All of the out-sourcing and capital flight with the financialization of the US economy hurt these people the most. A corrupt, morally bankrupt political class of Democrats- which they shockingly continue to vote for- did them in. All of this has very little to do with race. That’s just pure and utter bullshit and side-tracking and avoiding all of the many the real problems that exist.
For the Big 3 in Detroit, I think a bigger difference is a bloated cost model [incl union labor agreements], complacency about product quality, belief that a "buy American" model would outcompete superior and/or less expensive foreign products, etc. 

It's not like nobody assembles cars in the US... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automotive_assembly_plants_in_the_United_States (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automotive_assembly_plants_in_the_United_States)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 03:52:11 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 22, 2020, 03:41:43 PM
OAM if coal mining was safe with no disease attached to it would you feel differently
I don't know.  Maybe.  It's less about how bad the job is and more about the expiration date of it.  
I mean, yeah, if it's a crummy job AND you get cancer from it, that's about as bad as it gets, right?  But I hadn't really lumped in that part of their lives during this whole, long discussion, have I?  
So I guess not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 22, 2020, 04:04:36 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 03:12:16 PM
Actually, I long for differing opinions backed up by evidence and a justification exceeding the anecdotal.  But unfortunately, it's rare.
You said it evidence not opinion,just remember that,I've got it book marked
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 22, 2020, 04:07:39 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 03:35:36 PM
Yes, let's get back to where the break-even point is on the sliding scale of lives vs economy.
Yeah. Let’s destroy people’s lives, small businesses, jobs, and livelihoods over a disease that the mounting evidence is starting to show- isn’t that deadly. Range is 0.1% to 0.3%. At worst case scenario .3% fatal. Basically right in line with a seasonal flu. But yeah let’s send the world into a depression that would rival the Great Depression! You don’t see how that would ruin more lives than this virus? If you can’t, we’ll you’re an idiot.

Sweden got this thing right. The rest of the world got it dead wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 04:09:30 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 22, 2020, 04:04:36 PM
You said it evidence not opinion,just remember that,I've got it book marked
I said opinion backed by evidence.  I know you want your "gotcha!" moment, but you're weirding me out.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 04:10:45 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 22, 2020, 04:07:39 PM
Yeah. Let’s destroy people’s lives, small businesses, jobs, and livelihoods over a disease that the mounting evidence is starting to show- isn’t that deadly. Range is 0.1% to 0.3%. At worst case scenario .3% fatal. Basically right in line with a seasonal flu. But yeah let’s send the world into a depression that would rival the Great Depression! You don’t see how that would ruin more lives than this virus? If you can’t, we’ll you’re an idiot.

Sweden got this thing right. The rest of the world got it dead wrong.
Okay, so in whatever city you live in, you'll sacrifice your family so that the businesses can open up.  Got it.
Now, if you live in a big city, we might need to off your coworkers and neighbors, we'll see.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 22, 2020, 04:12:20 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 22, 2020, 02:29:08 PM
There's a snarky thing I want to write, but it would lead down the road to me getting cussed out again, so I shall refrain.
@#!%$^&*ing go for it :character0029:,not like you have to run away on a your bad wheel.Out with it Blutarsky
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 22, 2020, 04:14:25 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 04:10:45 PM
Okay, so in whatever city you live in, you'll sacrifice your family so that the businesses can open up.  Got it.
Maybe we'll throw a few coal miners in there that'll cheer you up
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 04:17:47 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 22, 2020, 04:14:25 PM
Maybe we'll throw a few coal miners in there that'll cheer you up
So I want them dead because I want better for them and don't understand their perceived helplessness?  
Yeah, that makes sense. I love how this whole thing turned into my hating coal miners.  Literally the opposite of what sparked the discussion in the first place.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 22, 2020, 04:18:46 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 04:10:45 PM
Okay, so in whatever city you live in, you'll sacrifice your family so that the businesses can open up.  Got it.
Now, if you live in a big city, we might need to off your coworkers and neighbors, we'll see.
Point is we do that every year with the flu

why is this any different
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 22, 2020, 04:22:12 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 04:17:47 PM
So I want them dead because I want better for them and don't understand their perceived helplessness? 
Yeah, that makes sense. I love how this whole thing turned into my hating coal miners.  Literally the opposite of what sparked the discussion in the first place.
Ya I can tell by that touching touche you left 4 pages back that their welfare is of your utmost concern.Nice attempt at spin.They certainy wouldn't stoop to ask for your sympathy
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 22, 2020, 04:25:25 PM
You guys might as well be arguing with Cnn or Ms Nbc.

The only way that Fro is changing his mind is if they change their's.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 22, 2020, 04:25:54 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 03:07:42 PM
Let's define a "shitty job" as any job no one would choose if all jobs paid the same.  How about that?  Now is it a shitty job?  To me, the shittiness of a job has nothing to do with the paycheck you take home.
Even at that you are coming at it from the angle that because you think it’s a shitty job everyone must think it’s a shitty job.  Some people would think sitting all day at a desk in front of a computer screen is a shitty job.  Some would think trying to teach hormonal, smart ass kids all day is a shitty job.  Some would think taking care of sick people and changing bed pans is a shitty job (pun intended).

And you mention wanting fact based evidence and not anecdotal stories but where are your facts when you say “no one told them to pop out four kids and teach their children to be miners.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 22, 2020, 04:29:26 PM
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on April 22, 2020, 04:25:25 PM
You guys might as well be arguing with Cnn or Ms Nbc.

The only way that Fro is changing his mind is if they change their's.
Stop it Brutus I know you want to jump in 😎
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 22, 2020, 04:32:13 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on April 22, 2020, 04:25:54 PM
And you mention wanting fact based evidence and not anecdotal stories but where are your facts 
Hey,there's a 1st time for everything
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 22, 2020, 04:51:06 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 04:10:45 PM
Okay, so in whatever city you live in, you'll sacrifice your family so that the businesses can open up.  Got it.
Now, if you live in a big city, we might need to off your coworkers and neighbors, we'll see.
You want evidence not opinion, and you respond with a purely emotional argument?

I don't think I agree with @Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) that the upper bound on true mortality is 0.3%. I'm fairly sure based on everything I've looked at that true mortality will be <1%. Maybe it'll be <0.3%, but I don't think we can claim that yet.

The truth is that there *IS* a balance between the economy and lives. There always is. If this virus truly does have a 0.1% true mortality rate (especially biased towards the elderly and those with comorbidities), it wouldn't nearly justify the precautions we've taken. If this virus has a 1% true mortality rate, PARTICULARLY given how transmissible it appears to be, then it does because unchecked it would probably kill 600K-2M Americans (assuming minimum 2009 H1N1 Swine Flu estimates of 60M infections, and maybe a top end of 200M assuming not everyone in the US would get it). 

The balance is somewhere in between. But there *is* a balance. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 22, 2020, 04:55:31 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on April 22, 2020, 04:25:54 PM
Even at that you are coming at it from the angle that because you think it’s a shitty job everyone must think it’s a shitty job.  Some people would think sitting all day at a desk in front of a computer screen is a shitty job.  Some would think trying to teach hormonal, smart ass kids all day is a shitty job.  Some would think taking care of sick people and changing bed pans is a shitty job (pun intended).
Peter Gibbons (https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0515296/?ref_=tt_trv_qu): Our high school guidance counselor used to ask us what you'd do if you had a million dollars and you didn't have to work. And invariably what you'd say was supposed to be your career. So, if you wanted to fix old cars then you're supposed to be an auto mechanic.
Samir (https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0619651/?ref_=tt_trv_qu): So what did you say?
Peter Gibbons (https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0515296/?ref_=tt_trv_qu): I never had an answer. I guess that's why I'm working at Initech.
Michael Bolton (https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0379114/?ref_=tt_trv_qu): No, you're working at Initech because that question is bullsh!t to begin with. If everyone listened to her, there'd be no janitors, because no one would clean sh!t up if they had a million dollars.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 05:13:45 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 22, 2020, 04:51:06 PM
You want evidence not opinion, and you respond with a purely emotional argument?

I don't think I agree with @Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) that the upper bound on true mortality is 0.3%. I'm fairly sure based on everything I've looked at that true mortality will be <1%. Maybe it'll be <0.3%, but I don't think we can claim that yet.

The truth is that there *IS* a balance between the economy and lives. There always is. If this virus truly does have a 0.1% true mortality rate (especially biased towards the elderly and those with comorbidities), it wouldn't nearly justify the precautions we've taken. If this virus has a 1% true mortality rate, PARTICULARLY given how transmissible it appears to be, then it does because unchecked it would probably kill 600K-2M Americans (assuming minimum 2009 H1N1 Swine Flu estimates of 60M infections, and maybe a top end of 200M assuming not everyone in the US would get it).

The balance is somewhere in between. But there *is* a balance.
Yes, I know.  I was asking for what it is.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 22, 2020, 05:15:47 PM
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on April 22, 2020, 04:25:25 PM
You guys might as well be arguing with Cnn or Ms Nbc.

The only way that Fro is changing his mind is if they change their's.
Sigh. I look forward to the end of this because hopefully we'll be able to tighten down the hatches on political talk on all sides once we can flood this place with sports and chili again. (Preferably with beans, but without is fine too)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 05:15:58 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on April 22, 2020, 04:25:54 PM
Even at that you are coming at it from the angle that because you think it’s a shitty job everyone must think it’s a shitty job.  Huh?  I think it's a shitty job, so I call it a shitty job.  

Some people would think sitting all day at a desk in front of a computer screen is a shitty job.  Some would think trying to teach hormonal, smart ass kids all day is a shitty job.  Some would think taking care of sick people and changing bed pans is a shitty job (pun intended).
I completely agree.

The first part confuses me.  Why did you put "because you (me) think it's a shitty job everyone ust think it's a shitty job."  Where did that come from?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 22, 2020, 05:16:26 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 22, 2020, 04:12:20 PM
@#!%$^&*ing go for it :character0029:,not like you have to run away on a your bad wheel.Out with it Blutarsky
No. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 05:17:11 PM
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on April 22, 2020, 04:25:25 PM
You guys might as well be arguing with Cnn or Ms Nbc.

The only way that Fro is changing his mind is if they change their's.
Yeah, see, I'm not that.  Everyone left of far right isn't a liberal.  This kind of thing is getting old, because it was wrong from the first time it was shared.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 22, 2020, 05:20:19 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 22, 2020, 03:28:27 PM
I’m not ignoring anything. You are. It has nothing to do with racism. It has everything to do with class. There are two classes in this country- rich and poor. Rich people give the same amount of f##ks about poor white people as they do about poor black people: none.

What you’re seeing in neighborhoods like that are the effects of high paying, low skill manual labor manufacturing jobs being gutted and entire industries collapsing in a chain reaction. Detroit has under 700,000 residents today, it is one of the poorest cities in the country, and looks like a literal war zone. In the 1960’s it was a city of almost 2 million residents and the richest city in the entire world. That’s why Detroit became a major hub for black people- they were able to flee the south and head north and get good paying jobs in manufacturing that didn’t require skill. And other entire industries and economies built up around the manufacturing jobs. See: Motown, 1950s/60s Detroit.

All of the out-sourcing and capital flight with the financialization of the US economy hurt these people the most. A corrupt, morally bankrupt political class of Democrats- which they shockingly continue to vote for- did them in. All of this has very little to do with race. That’s just pure and utter bullshit and side-tracking and avoiding all of the many the real problems that exist.

When you have cities losing entire industries and enormous numbers of quality paying low-skill jobs, and corrupt politicians that do absolutely nothing about providing legitimate health-care or improving education- you get cities like Detroit. Poverty breeds crime, drug & alcohol addictions, and poorer people tend to have way more children and children out of wedlock as well.

To blame it all on racism and think that is the cause is just astoundingly small minded and stupid and it’s not looking at a big picture with a lot of moving, complex parts.
This seems like a odd whitewashing of a whole set of problems Detroit had. 

And while I would agree that particular party has not helped that city very much, it's not as if the lone alternative would have created an atmosphere of non-free trade. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 05:20:50 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 22, 2020, 04:22:12 PM
Ya I can tell by that touching touche you left 4 pages back that their welfare is of your utmost concern.Nice attempt at spin.They certainy wouldn't stoop to ask for your sympathy
Their plight frustrates me and I don't understand their reaction to it.  And why is that the emotion I feel?  Because I don't care?  Because I hate them?  You're so far removed from the reality of my part of the discussion that you don't really warrant response. 

I'm not being pissy here, just realizing how skewed this post is.  This whole thing started because I give a damn about people I'll never meet.  No, that doesn't make me any different from any of you, but you think I'm some decietful, elitist asshole.

So sorry to disappoint you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 05:26:46 PM
Back on-topic, GA and SC are rip-roaring to get back to making that money. 
You know, the intellectual pillars of our Union. 

Without starting another forest fire, would it be fair to say republican-leaning states want to open sooner and democratic-leaning states are okay with opening later? 
Oh wait, shouldn't the statistics dictate that?  And not politics?  :c002:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 22, 2020, 05:37:09 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 05:13:45 PM
Yes, I know.  I was asking for what it is. 
You can't know the balance unless you know a hell of a lot more than we did about this virus. Heck, we STILL don't know enough to find the balance.

The flu doesn't cause us to shut everything down. Resurgence of something as fatal as the 1918 Spanish Flu? It absolutely would.

We could save thousands and thousands of lives by mandating a 20 mph speed limit nationwide. We don't do that because it would be asinine. We accept a certain level of automobile deaths because we can't live our lives at 20 mph. 

I still don't know whether we overreacted to this. We won't until we can study this in hindsight.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 22, 2020, 05:40:25 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 05:26:46 PM
Without starting another forest fire, would it be fair to say republican-leaning states want to open sooner and democratic-leaning states are okay with opening later? 
Oh wait, shouldn't the statistics dictate that?  And not politics?  :c002:
Generally, R states are more rural and D states are more urban. Closer proximity to other people [as in cities] tends to lead to easier spread of a virus.

Politics are undoubtedly involved, because a certain politician at the head of our government is pushing heavily for re-opening. But if the alternative politician was elected in 2016 and was in favor of stay-at-home orders, my guess is that the folks in rural R-leaning America would be protesting TWICE as heavily as they are against stay-at-home orders. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2020, 06:01:11 PM
Or the other alternate?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 22, 2020, 06:02:24 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2020, 06:01:11 PM
Or the other alternate?
I knew flat out that the guy I voted for wasn't going to get more than a percent or two of the vote, so I felt safe excluding him.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 22, 2020, 06:04:17 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 05:26:46 PM
Back on-topic, GA and SC are rip-roaring to get back to making that money. 
You know, the intellectual pillars of our Union. 

Without starting another forest fire, would it be fair to say republican-leaning states want to open sooner and democratic-leaning states are okay with opening later and ask the Government for a handout  
Oh wait, shouldn't the statistics dictate that?  And not politics?  :c002:
FIFY
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 22, 2020, 06:09:58 PM
I read two cats have tested positive for the virus in NTC

Now who in the world would give a cat a virus test

No wonder NYC is in trouble
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2020, 06:12:33 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 22, 2020, 06:02:24 PM
I knew flat out that the guy I voted for wasn't going to get more than a percent or two of the vote, so I felt safe excluding him.
My vote didn't matter here in Illinois either. :67:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 22, 2020, 06:17:57 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 05:20:50 PM
 This whole thing started because I give a damn about people I'll never meet.  No, that doesn't make me any different from any of you, but you think I'm some decietful, elitist asshole.

So sorry to disappoint you.
They're all battling to be the last sap with black-lung in the last coal mine.
Ya ,you're right because nothing quite screams compassion like that statement,got it.My how could I possibly misread that as anything else but a brotherly embrace.Now I see the errors of my ways and am dreadfully sorry for my offense of pointing it out.Good Night
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 22, 2020, 06:21:01 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 22, 2020, 05:40:25 PM
Generally, R states are more rural and D states are more urban. Closer proximity to other people [as in cities] tends to lead to easier spread of a virus.

Politics are undoubtedly involved, because a certain politician at the head of our government is pushing heavily for re-opening. But if the alternative politician was elected in 2016 and was in favor of stay-at-home orders, my guess is that the folks in rural R-leaning America would be protesting TWICE as heavily as they are against stay-at-home orders.

This would be ... a lot. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 22, 2020, 06:36:34 PM
This whole thing was based off of models that have been way wrong

A lot of Americans recognize this and have had enough
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 06:38:58 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 22, 2020, 06:09:58 PM
I read two cats have tested positive for the virus in NTC

Now who in the world would give a cat a virus test

No wonder NYC is in trouble
LOL
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 06:40:26 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 22, 2020, 06:36:34 PM
This whole thing was based off of models that have been way wrong

A lot of Americans recognize this and have had enough
What could have altered the trajectory of the spread?  :57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 22, 2020, 06:45:05 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 06:40:26 PM
What could have altered the trajectory of the spread?  :57:
see there you go

model makers are never wrong

they just didnt figure distancing to be as affective as it is

bull shit

theres a world of difference from over 2,000,000 estimated dead to a flu like less then 60,000 dead
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 06:58:38 PM
You're acting like this is over.  Don't worry, the deaths will continue.  Then they'll wane.  Then they'll swell.  A roller-coaster of death.  Enjoy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 22, 2020, 07:06:35 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 06:58:38 PM
You're acting like this is over.  Don't worry, the deaths will continue.  Then they'll wane.  Then they'll swell.  A roller-coaster of death.  Enjoy.
thats what all the lefties are screaming and praying for


and when we are successful at reopening their dreams will be dashed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 07:13:19 PM
Thanks for letting us see what you are.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 22, 2020, 07:16:19 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 22, 2020, 07:06:35 PM
thats what all the lefties are screaming and praying for


and when we are successful at reopening their dreams will be dashed
It is rather unfortunate how quickly this became that sort of wedge issue. By and large leads to poor decision-making.

(Not commenting on the decisions on their own, but how quickly them and their results must be used as cudgels in either direction)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 22, 2020, 07:16:50 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 07:13:19 PM
Thanks for letting us see what you are. 
yep you found me out

Im an American
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 22, 2020, 07:19:15 PM
We still know very little about this virus.  It COULD mysteriously disappear (I doubt it, but it's possible.).

Something worse might reappear.  Were I a country interested in attacking another country ....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 22, 2020, 07:19:51 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 22, 2020, 07:16:19 PM
It is rather unfortunate how quickly this became that sort of wedge issue. By and large leads to poor decision-making.

(Not commenting on the decisions on their own, but how quickly them and their results must be used as cudgels in either direction)
I have no problem with precautions taken in hot spots

I do have a problem with the resistance to opening areas of the country which are in good shape
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 07:24:25 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 22, 2020, 07:16:50 PM
yep you found me out

Im an American
You're exactly who people parody.  'MURICA!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 07:25:32 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 22, 2020, 07:19:51 PM
I have no problem with precautions taken in hot spots

I do have a problem with the resistance to opening areas of the country which are in good shape
Yeah, except those lines you see on maps aren't real, they're drawn on.  Millions of people cross them every day, back-and-forth.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 22, 2020, 07:36:21 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 06:58:38 PM
You're acting like this is over.  Don't worry, the deaths will continue.  Then they'll wane.  Then they'll swell.  A roller-coaster of death.  Enjoy.
That could be the case. So when is the “right” time to open the economy back up? You seem to be of the opinion it isn’t now.  When is it? I read an article today that an Israeli professor has plotted the rates of new corona virus infections in 9 countries and it showed whether countries quarantined or not CV peaked and subsided in the exact same way.  Should his findings be taken into consideration?

As far as I can tell there isn’t a right time to open back up.

And this isn’t just as simple as money vs lives. There is a human toll when people are out of work too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 22, 2020, 07:39:43 PM
There are over 4,000 deaths every year in Texas due to the flu

to date this virus has accounted for 535 

seems kinda strange to completely closed down for the coronavirus and be full open for the flu
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 22, 2020, 07:43:40 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 07:24:25 PM
You're exactly who people parody.  'MURICA!!!
why because I disagree with you
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 22, 2020, 07:44:51 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 22, 2020, 07:19:51 PM
I have no problem with precautions taken in hot spots

I do have a problem with the resistance to opening areas of the country which are in good shape
I see it as a two-pronged thing.

On one, it became clear that certain approaches were being attached to certain sides. And it meant there could be something performative. This is not to say the MSM is right, but stuff so far down below even that quality was oft bandied about, often it seemed because it supported the point one wanted to make. And my worry there is things become performative, as politicians need an aspect of performance. 

The other prong is the areas affected part. I've not yet seen breakdowns of how that would actually operate. At the moment, it seems to be by state, which strikes me as a kind of problematic way of doing things.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 22, 2020, 07:45:35 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 07:24:25 PM
You're exactly who people parody.  'MURICA!!!
OAM, I mean this as respectfully as I can, you are playing quite the parody-able role through all this. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 22, 2020, 07:51:14 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 22, 2020, 07:44:51 PM
I see it as a two-pronged thing.

On one, it became clear that certain approaches were being attached to certain sides. And it meant there could be something performative. This is not to say the MSM is right, but stuff so far down below even that quality was oft bandied about, often it seemed because it supported the point one wanted to make. And my worry there is things become performative, as politicians need an aspect of performance.

The other prong is the areas affected part. I've not yet seen breakdowns of how that would actually operate. At the moment, it seems to be by state, which strikes me as a kind of problematic way of doing things.
well Trump tried to take charge of it and had to give that idea up because it goes against the Constitution

So its up to the states

I dont see why cool areas cant open up and then any hot spots that develop be addressed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 22, 2020, 07:53:02 PM
one thing i strongly believe is that we cant stay completely closed down very long

the American people will not accept it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 22, 2020, 07:55:17 PM
Take out here is "OK".  A lot of places have outdoor dining, but I can't get take out and sit at a table outdoors, against the rules.  Seriously.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 22, 2020, 08:00:15 PM
as I mentioned earlier we now have masks required in the Houston area

one exception is if you are drinking something so I think all I have to do is open a can of beer when I walk down the street
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 22, 2020, 09:04:09 PM
I see the “R” state or “D” state thing.  There is no denying there is politics at play.

But I also see something deeper here. On it’s face you could call it political, but I think it is actually deeper in our psyche than that.

There is an inherent belief in some- in human responsibility.  Good and bad.  Give people the information, hope they understand it, and most will do the right thing.  They are willing to take the good with the bad so long as they have a high degree of freedom and liberty.  

There is an inherent belief in some in government responsibility.  It is safer feeling..it doesn’t leave much room for interpretation in times like these. Manage human behavior on a more micro level, and you don’t have to worry as much about taking the good with bad.

I am NOT passing judgement on either side...I just don’t see it as right or wrong.  heck, I find myself feeling both at different times and different situations.


And it is not just about government.  In the corporate workplace or society in general, I have seen many many people that are much more comfortable in one environment over the other- and are happy to share how they feel and why they fit better in certain jobs for their comfort level.

And you can see how it might be effected by, or actually cause, metro versus rural.  And you can see how it could deeply impact the situation we are in and why such great debate about where to go next.


Those who want to open things up, truly want to do it in a way they feel is safe.  They feel that we have learned enough and can contain better than before.  They believe they can be creative in how they run their business- and make the changes they need to make to mitigate risk.  They also feel the risk is worthwhile for the reward, for themselves and their sphere and for the country. 


The more structured side truly feels that what is best for them and for people they care about - is to control the environment, including the people.   They might trust themselves but they don’t trust that others can pull it off, and are nowhere near willing to risk it.   They are very comfortable in a controlled, structured environment where freedom is relative.

Not sure how well I articulated it, but that is what I see.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 22, 2020, 09:14:55 PM
And I will add, when the politics come in it scares the shit out of the other side, in both cases.

I am sure people get incorrect pictures in their head about “ poor dumb uneducated country bumpkins” running around with poor hygiene and spreading the virus.

I know I got a little worked up when I saw AOC saying people don’t want to go back to work- ever!  They don’t want to go back to their 70 hour a week jobs and feeling bad about their place in life.

Heck, I saw a group of “ analysts and commentators” on one network saying that protesters who want to limit or end the lock down are “ racists because they want more black or Brown people to die”

Human nature is a strange thing, and with this lack of data and polarized world we live in, it is a crazy ride we are all on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 11:55:32 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on April 22, 2020, 07:36:21 PM
That could be the case. So when is the “right” time to open the economy back up? You seem to be of the opinion it isn’t now.  When is it?
I've asked this over and over. 

Like everything, when people think the right time is can be plotted on a bell curve.  I'm of the opinion that things should open back up whenever the highest number of people want it opened back up.  That isn't now.  It's not in July (or whenever the lastest month you've heard).  It's somewhere in between.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 11:56:33 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 22, 2020, 09:14:55 PM
Human nature is a strange thing, and with this lack of data and polarized world we live in, it is a crazy ride we are all on.
Great point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on April 23, 2020, 02:08:07 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on April 23, 2020, 02:04:58 AM
Not toxic.  About a mile north of city limits, Manchester, Iowa. Enjoy. Click, and keep clicking. Enjoy.
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49794682077_e383faea1c_k.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/2iSbLak)American Bald Eagle, Manchester, Iowa (https://flic.kr/p/2iSbLak) by Mark Roeder (https://www.flickr.com/photos/82428620@N00/), on Flickr
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on April 23, 2020, 02:16:19 AM
Just saying the regalia displayed does not indicate anything about our country. Pony up, and think about all, rather than me. We will arrive, at us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 06:57:15 AM
I'd note again that this state is not throwing a light switch and returning to normal.  And many mayors are encouraging people to remain in place, and many will be scared to go out much, and many workers will prefer UE payments and not want to work.  

Restaurants are to separate tables, so your primary exposure is your server, which relative to take out is not a huge increase in risk it seems to me.  Outdoor dining should be fine, they can provide take out and let you sit at tables that are separated.

Opening the gyms looks dubious to me, tattoo parlors, whatever else, but they are suppose to limit the number of people inside, so things are still limited.  It should be interesting.

In terms of additional risk, it looks fairly small to me overall.  Somebody needs to try something to see what happens.  That bad part is we won't know for a month what happened, at least.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 07:24:55 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html)

Fascinating approach, I think, risky of course, but fascinating.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 09:00:06 AM
In a followup to a local Houston judges crap ruling

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/texas-judges-30-day-coronavirus-mask-order-blasted-as-ultimate-government-overreach (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/texas-judges-30-day-coronavirus-mask-order-blasted-as-ultimate-government-overreach)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 23, 2020, 09:22:03 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 06:57:15 AM
I'd note again that this state is not throwing a light switch and returning to normal.  And many mayors are encouraging people to remain in place, and many will be scared to go out much, and many workers will prefer UE payments and not want to work. 

Restaurants are to separate tables, so your primary exposure is your server, which relative to take out is not a huge increase in risk it seems to me.  Outdoor dining should be fine, they can provide take out and let you sit at tables that are separated.

Opening the gyms looks dubious to me, tattoo parlors, whatever else, but they are suppose to limit the number of people inside, so things are still limited.  It should be interesting.

In terms of additional risk, it looks fairly small to me overall.  Somebody needs to try something to see what happens.  That bad part is we won't know for a month what happened, at least.
I hear the bowling alleys will open!
Golf courses, were they closed?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 09:23:34 AM
Golf courses have been case by case, not closed by the state.  Bowling alleys can open tomorrow with "distancing" and extra hygiene, kind of like restaurants.

The problem will be laid off workers make more on UE than they do working.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 23, 2020, 09:24:10 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 09:00:06 AM
In a followup to a local Houston judges crap ruling

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/texas-judges-30-day-coronavirus-mask-order-blasted-as-ultimate-government-overreach (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/texas-judges-30-day-coronavirus-mask-order-blasted-as-ultimate-government-overreach)
Is there something different about the Harris County order, compared to, say, the Travis County order, that's been issued for a couple of weeks now?

I certainly understand the fear of government overreach, but this seems like a fairly minor infringement.  I understand that's just my opinion and others might view it as something more than "fairly minor" but in general, if the cost of opening up commerce, is that people will have to wear masks for the next 30 days, I just don't think that's a big deal.

Now, since N95 masks are all but vanished, and surgical masks aren't that easy to get, and not everyone has an awesome mom like I do, to sew them a killer cloth mask-- most of these government orders are allowing for "face coverings" of any kind.  People are responding by wearing bandannas and scarves over their faces, and I'm not certain whether or not there's much point to that.  I'm not sure I've seen any studies on the effectiveness of a scarf at preventing the spread of viruses, either as a protective measure for the wearer, or as a preventive measure from droplets escaping outward in the midst of talking, coughing, sneezing, etc.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 09:25:38 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 09:23:34 AM
Golf courses have been case by case, not closed by the state.  Bowling alleys can open tomorrow with "distancing" and extra hygiene, kind of like restaurants.

The problem will be laid off workers make more on UE than they do working.
Theres bound to be a lot of folks not working who do want a job
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 23, 2020, 09:25:49 AM
so, there might not be enough workers coming back to run the bowling alley?

not enough servers and hostesses and cooks to open the restaurants?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 23, 2020, 09:26:47 AM
I don't think golf courses ever shut down here in Central Texico.  I run past a couple of different ones on my regular routes, and they both seem to have been open this entire time.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 23, 2020, 09:28:14 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 23, 2020, 09:25:49 AM
so, there might not be enough workers coming back to run the bowling alley?

not enough servers and hostesses and cooks to open the restaurants?
What about all those high school and college kids that are basically out of school now, and might want to earn some money?  They weren't working previously so they can't collect UE benefits. And they've got nothing better to do now, except play video games I guess... :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 09:28:27 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 23, 2020, 09:24:10 AM
Is there something different about the Harris County order, compared to, say, the Travis County order, that's been issued for a couple of weeks now?

I certainly understand the fear of government overreach, but this seems like a fairly minor infringement.  I understand that's just my opinion and others might view it as something more than "fairly minor" but in general, if the cost of opening up commerce, is that people will have to wear masks for the next 30 days, I just don't think that's a big deal.

Now, since N95 masks are all but vanished, and surgical masks aren't that easy to get, and not everyone has an awesome mom like I do, to sew them a killer cloth mask-- most of these government orders are allowing for "face coverings" of any kind.  People are responding by wearing bandannas and scarves over their faces, and I'm not certain whether or not there's much point to that.  I'm not sure I've seen any studies on the effectiveness of a scarf at preventing the spread of viruses, either as a protective measure for the wearer, or as a preventive measure from droplets escaping outward in the midst of talking, coughing, sneezing, etc.


I guess what riles me more then anything is the $1,000 fine and 180 days in jail that comes with this ruling

not sure what Travis county has but this is just draconian
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 09:35:06 AM
as additional followup to our mask requirement

https://woai.iheart.com/content/2020-04-22-houston-police-officers-union-asks-for-ag-ruling-on-mask-requirements/ (https://woai.iheart.com/content/2020-04-22-houston-police-officers-union-asks-for-ag-ruling-on-mask-requirements/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 23, 2020, 09:37:40 AM
and this face mask ruling is supposed to limit the spread how much???

10%, 25%, 50%, 3%??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 09:42:39 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 23, 2020, 09:37:40 AM
and this face mask ruling is supposed to limit the spread how much???

10%, 25%, 50%, 3%??
Im sure its beneficial to wear a mask but is it legal to be mandatory
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 23, 2020, 09:45:40 AM
well, it appears to be legal to force closure of many privately owned businesses
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 09:48:29 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 23, 2020, 09:45:40 AM
well, it appears to be legal to force closure of many privately owned businesses
see Im not sure it is

In my opinion most of this closing down stuff is voluntary

Unless congress passes a law or martial law is declared it can only be voluntary
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 23, 2020, 09:49:50 AM
I've heard to police were called to bars that were allowing folks to come in and have a beer or two

not sure how many were arrested
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 23, 2020, 09:51:05 AM
I've heard about some places of worship that had issues with local law enforcement

apparently, they were not volunteering enough 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 09:57:56 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 23, 2020, 09:51:05 AM
I've heard about some places of worship that had issues with local law enforcement

apparently, they were not volunteering enough
dont get me wrong I realize we have to starve this virus to kill it but to throw somebody in jail for 180 days for not covering their face 

seems a bit much
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 23, 2020, 10:00:58 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 23, 2020, 09:37:40 AM
and this face mask ruling is supposed to limit the spread how much???

10%, 25%, 50%, 3%??
I think this would be relevant and valuable information to tell the public.  Governmental transparency and all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on April 23, 2020, 10:03:06 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 03:04:49 PM

I want something better for them while they're seemingly refusing to take the steps necessary for that something better.  Yes, the unknown is scary, and as we've said, change is hard.  But it's necessary sometimes.  And not one anecdote changes that, sorry.
And this is the issue, you are an elitist and you know what is better for them. You know what is better for everyone. The hoi polloi are stupid and don't know any better so they should all (and in many cases for you be forced) to do what I want them to do, they are incapable of making proper decisions for their own life. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on April 23, 2020, 10:09:57 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 05:13:45 PM
Yes, I know.  I was asking for what it is. 
The balance would be what we have done with other pandemics. Close down and practice isolation in the hot spots. Not this blanket one size fits all shut everything down. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 10:12:42 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 23, 2020, 09:49:50 AM
I've heard to police were called to bars that were allowing folks to come in and have a beer or two

not sure how many were arrested
This happened March 19 in Chicago
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on April 23, 2020, 10:13:38 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 07:25:32 PM
Yeah, except those lines you see on maps aren't real, they're drawn on.  Millions of people cross them every day, back-and-forth.

Yes and yet it has worked with other pandemics. What makes this pandemic different is not the virus, it is the press and politicians (Republican and Democrat) reactions to it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 23, 2020, 10:54:30 AM
Quote from: Riffraft on April 23, 2020, 10:13:38 AM
Yes and yet it has worked with other pandemics. What makes this pandemic different is not the virus, it is the press and politicians (Republican and Democrat) reactions to it.
Those are some of the differences, but there are others.  

I think a strong component here, is that our nation is more willing to go to great lengths to protect a very small but highly vulnerable minority.  And part of that, is because we CAN do it.  There's a tremendous cost, but it's now possible to isolate in a way that's never really been possible before.  This wasn't really an option even as recently as two decades ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 10:56:53 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 23, 2020, 10:54:30 AM
Those are some of the differences, but there are others. 

I think a strong component here, is that our nation is more willing to go to great lengths to protect a very small but highly vulnerable minority.  And part of that, is because we CAN do it.  There's a tremendous cost, but it's now possible to isolate in a way that's never really been possible before.  This wasn't really an option even as recently as two decades ago.
good point

key word is willing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 11:03:48 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 09:57:56 AM
dont get me wrong I realize we have to starve this virus to kill it but to throw somebody in jail for 180 days for not covering their face

seems a bit much
Did that really happen?they are emptying non violent prisons here in Ohio to save from crowding.So they are going to turn around and stoop to this?Good I won't wear my mask either - at least I'll finally get out of Jury duty.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2020, 11:08:17 AM
How does Houston define mask? Can it be made of anything? I ask, because you can't find/buy a mask anywhere that actually works to protect yourself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 11:09:57 AM
The point of a mask is not to protect the wearer of the mask, it can't.  The point is to protect others around you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 23, 2020, 11:10:59 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2020, 11:08:17 AM
How does Houston define mask? Can it be made of anything? I ask, because you can't find/buy a mask anywhere that actually works to protect yourself.
Yes it can be anything.  Scarves, bandannas, anything.  Same thing here in Austin.

Which is a large part of why people are questioning it.  I think it's reasonable for citizens to ask about the effectiveness of using ANYTHING as a face covering, when it is mandated by law and punishable by 180 days in jail and a $1,000 fine.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 23, 2020, 11:13:21 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 11:09:57 AM
The point of a mask is not to protect the wearer of the mask, it can't.  The point is to protect others around you.
I think most people get that.

I think they're also wondering just how effective scarves and bandannas and ski masks are, at stopping droplets from escaping the mouth and nose of the wearer, during a cough or sneeze.

I think it's reasonable for people to wonder this, and to question the government.  If the government doesn't have a legitimate scientific response (and so far, they have not) then I'm not sure there's enough justification for the law.

We're not talking about N95 masks, we're not even talking about surgical masks.  We're talking about scarves. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 11:14:46 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 23, 2020, 09:24:10 AM
Is there something different about the Harris County order, compared to, say, the Travis County order, that's been issued for a couple of weeks now?

Years ago Ohio had Environmental Exhaust checks for like 6 counties.The ones that Cleveland,Cinci,Columbus,Toledo,Akron and Dayton were in.Which was BS.Pollution is pollution fight it everywhere or not at all.Same here IMO if it's really contagious then strangle it on all fronts(in crowded conditions)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 11:16:26 AM
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01098-x (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01098-x)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 23, 2020, 11:17:03 AM
Quote from: Riffraft on April 23, 2020, 10:03:06 AM
And this is the issue, you are an elitist and you know what is better for them. You know what is better for everyone. The hoi polloi are stupid and don't know any better so they should all (and in many cases for you be forced) to do what I want them to do, they are incapable of making proper decisions for their own life.
People who cry "elitist" are always the ones calling other groups "stupid".  Meanwhile, I'm talking about their lack of scope, which isn't their fault.  So my previous statement about blaming them once they're aware of their plight isn't looking down on anyone, because most aren't aware of it.  

But yes, many people are incapable of making good life decisions, and while they're free to do so, I'm also free to hope that things improve for them.  It doesn't make me a jerk to want that or to want that while acknowledging how hard it would be.  

I just don't see how that makes me such a bastard, but I'm just an arrogant elitist.  So I have my shortcomings.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 11:17:53 AM
Those pollution checks were bogus anyway.  They had some poorly trained dude who barely knew how to run the equipment, and heaven forbid you showed up with a car with a manual transmission.  And I've seen $20 change hands and the car would magically pass because he'd leave wand outside the exhaust.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 23, 2020, 11:18:09 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 11:09:57 AM
The point of a mask is not to protect the wearer of the mask, it can't.  The point is to protect others around you.
I've been thinking about this lately.

What are the mechanics of the proper mask that allows it to stop outgoing viruses but not incoming viruses?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 11:21:54 AM
Judges are supposed to enforce the law not make the law

In this case I think the Judge over reached by requiring wearing masks under penalty of law
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 11:24:28 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 23, 2020, 09:49:50 AM
I've heard to police were called to bars that were allowing folks to come in and have a beer or two

not sure how many were arrested
I am aware of at least one speakeasy on the west side of town.But with so much less traffic on the road I don't want to get pulled over for a burnt out blinker or sum such
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 11:28:56 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 11:17:53 AM
Those pollution checks were bogus anyway.  They had some poorly trained dude who barely knew how to run the equipment, and heaven forbid you showed up with a car with a manual transmission.  And I've seen $20 change hands and the car would magically pass because he'd leave wand outside the exhaust.
At the time there was also a charge for this which chapped my ass.While good old boys were running their Monster trucks w/o muffled manifolds on the back roads and Semis belching out soot on the interstates.The Man - "Ya you come here we want to check your 4 cylinder compact" - sounds reasonable
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 23, 2020, 11:34:34 AM
Yeah, it's pretty awful that they're requiring a non-invasive act by everyone to prevent the spread of a pandemic.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 11:39:44 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 23, 2020, 11:34:34 AM
Yeah, it's pretty awful that they're requiring a non-invasive act by everyone to prevent the spread of a pandemic. 
feel free to give your rights away  but please leave mine in tact
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 11:42:46 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 23, 2020, 11:18:09 AM
I've been thinking about this lately.

What are the mechanics of the proper mask that allows it to stop outgoing viruses but not incoming viruses?
None of them stop viral movement.  They do limit the amount of droplet spread from a person's mouth during a cough or sneeze.

You may have seen a sneeze imaged in a photograph.  The droplets project out quite far and can infect another person.

(https://i.imgur.com/0cEeZ0p.png)


<iframe width="644" height="362" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/9qqHOKUXY5U" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2020, 11:46:42 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 11:09:57 AM
The point of a mask is not to protect the wearer of the mask, it can't.  The point is to protect others around you.
N95 protects the person wearing it. That's why I donated all of mine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 11:50:22 AM
N95 protects if worn properly, which is not easy to do at all.

Even then, it is not foolproof.

https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/personal-protective-equipment-infection-control/n95-respirators-and-surgical-masks-face-masks (https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/personal-protective-equipment-infection-control/n95-respirators-and-surgical-masks-face-masks)

https://www.healthline.com/health/coronavirus-mask#when-how-to-use (https://www.healthline.com/health/coronavirus-mask#when-how-to-use)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2020, 12:05:21 PM
I'm sure the people who I donated them to (nurses) know how it's done.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 12:08:02 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 11:42:46 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/0cEeZ0p.png)
Man that looks like she is deliberately launching a louggie.Maybe at Party Officials in Wuhan
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 23, 2020, 12:09:20 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 11:14:46 AM
Years ago Ohio had Environmental Exhaust checks for like 6 counties.The ones that Cleveland,Cinci,Columbus,Toledo,Akron and Dayton were in.Which was BS.Pollution is pollution fight it everywhere or not at all.Same here IMO if it's really contagious then strangle it on all fronts(in crowded conditions)
I disagree. Pollution is pollution, yes. But air quality controls != "pollution". Air quality is also impacted by density.

A bunch of rural folks with polluting trucks, where population density is extremely low, is not going to cause an air quality problem.

Those same folks rolling those trucks in Cleveland, when aggregate and added to all the other cars there adding particulates [even if not high-polluting] causes an air quality problem. 

Now, with COVID-19 it is a little different because one infected person going from a rural town to downtown Cleveland for one day could end up a superspreader and start a hot spot, whereas one polluting truck from a rural town spending a day in Cleveland won't make any measurable difference to air quality. 

However I do believe that given population density, usage of mass transit, etc, there might be reasons to treat this differently in different areas. While downtown Manhattan it might be reasonable to mandate mask usage any time you're outside, even here in my town of Mission Viejo (where population density is high by national standards) it wouldn't make sense. I can take my dog for a walk never coming within 20' of another person. But mandating mask usage when out at the grocery store or truly in "public" makes sense. 

I.e. what's necessary to "strangle it" may be different in different conditions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2020, 12:14:44 PM
We still have emissions control testing here in Illinois. It provides jobs for connected hacks who can't do anything else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 23, 2020, 12:17:55 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2020, 12:14:44 PM
We still have emissions control testing here in Illinois. It provides jobs for connected hacks who can't do anything else.
If you have a landline phone, you are paying a tax that was created as an emergency measure to pay for the Spanish-American War.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 23, 2020, 12:20:46 PM
It was nice not having emissions testing on the reservation.  I had a Jeep with no catalytic converter up there and it didn't matter.  I got a new car, so it's not an issue now, but like I said, there's a good chance it's the last gas engine car I buy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 23, 2020, 12:27:06 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 11:39:44 AM
feel free to give your rights away  but please leave mine in tact
I would totally agree with you here if the mask protection was reversed.  If wearing a mask was primarily for the wearer's benefit, you should be able to opt out, because you'd be risking your own health.  
But because it's primarily for other's benefit, and your opting out would be risking other's health, it's really their rights at play here.  You not wearing a mask puts them at greater risk.  


At least, that's the thinking behind it.  There's one thing I'll give my rights away for, and that's for the greater good.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 12:31:56 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 23, 2020, 12:27:06 PM
I would totally agree with you here if the mask protection was reversed.  If wearing a mask was primarily for the wearer's benefit, you should be able to opt out, because you'd be risking your own health. 
But because it's primarily for other's benefit, and your opting out would be risking other's health, it's really their rights at play here.  You not wearing a mask puts them at greater risk. 


At least, that's the thinking behind it.  There's one thing I'll give my rights away for, and that's for the greater good. 
there is no greater good more important then your rights
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 12:32:27 PM
I'm not really sanguine about "giving my rights" away as a general premise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 12:32:44 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 23, 2020, 12:09:20 PM
I disagree. Pollution is pollution, yes. But air quality controls != "pollution". Air quality is also impacted by density.
Perhaps but doesn't carbon monoxide in what ever amount work it's way up to the OZONE/atmosphere?I had read where motor vehicles produce half the of the carbon monoxide and nitrogen something or other dispenced into it.So nipping it in the bud would be important everywhere.Take care of the trees,have 4 of them around my house and the arborist said they are in fine shape 😎 .We've lived peacably together for over 20 yrs together.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 23, 2020, 12:35:57 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 12:31:56 PM
there is no greater good more important then your rights
You've heard the old saying (https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/10/15/liberty-fist-nose/) "your right to swing your fist stops at my nose", right? 

There are certain activities that are deemed so dangerous that the right to engage in them is proscribed because of the risk.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 12:37:27 PM
Nitrogen oxides of varying types, usually denoted NOx, are especially bad pollutants.  These are generated at higher combustion temperatures which is where engines are more efficient.

The three way catalyst is designed to limit their production in gasoline cars.  Newer Diesels have a urea injection system that mitigates the problem.  This is where VW got into deep trouble, they claimed to be able to meet targets without urea injection.  They tricked the test to do it.

Carbon monoxide is not much of an issue for a modern car.  They get clean burn anyway with fuel injection and what is left goes through the catalyst.  CO is more of a low level pollutant that can cause breathing issues.

Trees interestingly produce their own set of pollutants that create high ozone levels and that blue haze you see in the mountains in summer.

Seriously.  Trees pollute.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 12:48:23 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 12:37:27 PM
Nitrogen oxides of varying types, usually denoted NOx, are especially bad pollutants.  These are generated at higher combustion temperatures which is where engines are more efficient.
Ya what he said


Trees interestingly produce their own set of pollutants that create high ozone levels and that blue haze you see in the mountains in summer.
Seriously.  Trees pollute.
Ya in a million years or so when it becomes coal.Go under a canopy of trees on a blistering hot day.Then string a hammock up,then mix up one of those fancy drinks from the other thread you guys where talking about-I'd go with a Yuengling or even a Hudepohl if need be.Then stretch out in said Hammock and enjoy your pollution.And stop hitting me with those negative waves Moriarity
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 23, 2020, 12:48:39 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 12:32:27 PM
I'm not really sanguine about "giving my rights" away as a general premise.
“sanguine”.   Nice word choice Cincy.  I like that word.  Certain words are more interesting.  “Loin” for example. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 23, 2020, 12:50:39 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 12:08:02 PM
Man that looks like she is deliberately launching a louggie.Maybe at Party Officials in Wuhan
looks like she had too much bat soup and sake.  Blowing chunks!
she needs a 5 gallon bucket, not a mask
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 12:52:02 PM
Trees are great, but they also pollute the air with hydrocarbons like isoprene.  These interact with sunlight and oxygen and form low level ozone.

This is why the Blue Ridge mountains appear to be blue.

Isoprene, incidentally, is the primary component of most rubbers, like tire rubber.  And there is a kind of tree that produces rubber, from isoprene.

All the terpenes in pine trees start with isoprene.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 23, 2020, 12:57:07 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 12:32:44 PM
Perhaps but doesn't carbon monoxide in what ever amount work it's way up to the OZONE/atmosphere?I had read where motor vehicles produce half the of the carbon monoxide and nitrogen something or other dispenced into it.So nipping it in the bud would be important everywhere.Take care of the trees,have 4 of them around my house and the arborist said they are in fine shape 😎 .We've lived peacably together for over 20 yrs together.
Sure. There are certain pollutants for which the harm can't be localized. 

So you try to implement policies that make sense for the sort of harm that you're trying to prevent without creating an undue burden elsewhere.

The issue of air quality in urban/suburban areas [smog, particulates, and the like] is concentrated enough that if, say, 5% of the automobiles are poorly maintained and polluting it would create such terrible air quality that it is not an undue burden to test those cars. But if 5% of the automobiles in Wyoming are poorly maintained and polluting there's not enough of them nor enough population density to matter.

If we do back of the envelope math and assume 1 car per person (not accurate, of course), 5% of the cars in the Los Angeles metropolitan area would be greater than the entire number of cars in Wyoming, and packed into a MUCH more limited geographic space. 

For diffuse pollutants such as CO, perhaps, it makes more sense to tackle that through national standards on how much new automobiles can pollute. You're still controlling it, and it's still a burden, but it may not require a national infrastructure to religiously test all automobiles. And you know that since the various urban/suburban areas (which already ~80% of the population) are getting regular tests because of their local air quality standards, you're essentially catching most of the existing cars on the road anyway so you've solved most of the problem. You're allowing the local solution for air quality standards to solve the bulk of the problem without unduly burdening the rural areas.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 12:59:06 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 12:52:02 PM
Trees are great, but they also pollute the air with hydrocarbons like isoprene.  These interact with sunlight and oxygen and form low level ozone.

Get a hammock and a Hudepohl
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 01:03:20 PM
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-paradox-of-pollution-producing-trees/ (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-paradox-of-pollution-producing-trees/)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 23, 2020, 01:04:55 PM
didn't some guy in China try to kill ALL the birds for the public good a while back?

I know I read somewhere that bats aren't evil and should be allowed to live, but...........
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 01:08:03 PM
The models predict Sweden will overwhelm their hospital capacity in about a month.

I think the Swedes are distancing more than the model is allowing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 23, 2020, 01:14:25 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 23, 2020, 01:04:55 PM
didn't some guy in China try to kill ALL the birds for the public good a while back?

I know I read somewhere that bats aren't evil and should be allowed to live, but...........
We have a large bat population in Austin, I've read that it's the largest urban bat colony in North America at an estimated 1.5M.

As far as I know, nobody around here attempts to eat them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 23, 2020, 01:17:44 PM
I’ve worn a mask out a couple times. I find them to be a huge pain in the ass.  I’m constantly readjusting it.  My hands are around my face much more when I wear a mask than when I don’t.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 23, 2020, 01:18:46 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 01:08:03 PM
The models predict Sweden will overwhelm their hospital capacity in about a month.

I think the Swedes are distancing more than the model is allowing.
Getting back to the logic for a government "stay at home" order, I think it makes sense to look at national trends...

In Sweden, people have trust in their government. The Swedish government basically said "work from home if you can, vulnerable populations should stay secluded, no large gatherings are allowed, try to social distance from each other, be safe, and take this seriously, but we're not going to mandate business closures or stay-at-home orders."

To a large extent, Swedes followed the guideline. They voluntarily took many of the actions that the government might have mandated because their government said they should.

That's, uh... Not exactly how it would occur in America. We actively distrust our government. Sometimes Americans need a sort of whack upside the head. If the government had just "suggested" we social distance, do you really think anyone here would have taken it seriously? I personally don't. Right now the government IS mandating it and a lot of people aren't taking it seriously. 

I think the government mandates were a sort of whack upside the head to give us all a mental "reset" that this isn't a joke. Which--if Sweden's experience remains good--gives us a blueprint for starting to reopen the economy. 

If the messaging is right, i.e. "we're going to slowly and carefully re-open, but you all still need to be vigilant or this will get out of control", I think people will follow that messaging much more readily than if America has followed Sweden's messaging from the start. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2020, 01:20:09 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 23, 2020, 12:17:55 PM
If you have a landline phone, you are paying a tax that was created as an emergency measure to pay for the Spanish-American War.
We haven't had one since about 2005. I got rid of my office phone about 3-4 years ago too. Nobody ever called on that line.

People always used my cell anyway, as I've had the same cell phone number since 1996.

That number's area code is 847. Random factoid and not a coincidence. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 01:22:15 PM
You know there is no legal mandate for Americans to social distance, right?  It's advisory only.

Nobody gets arrested for being within 6 feet of someone else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2020, 01:28:23 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 01:22:15 PM
You know there is no legal mandate for Americans to social distance, right?  It's advisory only.

Nobody gets arrested for being within 6 feet of someone else.
Don't come to Chicago. Not that you would anyway. The restaurants are closed and that is the only reason to visit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 01:29:40 PM
We went to Chicago about 5 years ago because the wife had to visit a French consulate for something.  Now, there is one nearby.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 23, 2020, 01:32:18 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2020, 01:28:23 PM
Don't come to Chicago. Not that you would anyway. The restaurants are closed and that is the only reason to visit.
I don't know, I saw a Cubs game and really enjoyed that.   Of course, Cubs games are closed now, too, so...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 01:35:15 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 23, 2020, 01:04:55 PM
didn't some guy in China try to kill ALL the birds for the public good a while back?
Prolly watched a Hitchcock flick
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 01:41:38 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on April 23, 2020, 01:17:44 PM
I’ve worn a mask out a couple times. I find them to be a huge pain in the ass.  I’m constantly readjusting it.  My hands are around my face much more when I wear a mask than when I don’t.
Problem is like this morning volunteering at the Food Bank you get busy and the home made masks don't stay in place after a lot of movement.The other masks if you can find them are pricey.One of the women knitted I don't know how many.Pretty neat,you put coffee filters or just papers towels inside of them them throw out the paper insert when done.I spray the mask with alcohol mist after.The problem there is they are hot and dig into your ears.Going to try to MacGyver something tonite
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 23, 2020, 01:42:52 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 01:22:15 PM
You know there is no legal mandate for Americans to social distance, right?  It's advisory only.

Nobody gets arrested for being within 6 feet of someone else.
The people in Mississippi who were sitting in their own cars for a parking lot church service when the cops showed up might disagree.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 01:44:22 PM
The police acted improperly and not within the law.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 01:46:28 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 23, 2020, 01:14:25 PM
We have a large bat population in Austin, I've read that it's the largest urban bat colony in North America at an estimated 1.5M.

As far as I know, nobody around here attempts to eat them.
I dunno - if a noodler gets hungry......was watching nat geo a few weeks back and in these bat caves are certain snakes that have evolved to hanging down from the cave ceilings and snatch them up as they fly by en masse
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 01:47:55 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on April 23, 2020, 01:42:52 PM
The people in Mississippi who were sitting in their own cars for a parking lot church service when the cops showed up
Betcha heard alot about God and Jesus then
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 23, 2020, 01:48:08 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 01:44:22 PM
The police acted improperly and not within the law.
Exactly.  The cops have to know and apply the law properly. It isn’t enough that we do.  What you posted about social distancing is correct but I wouldn’t put it to the test.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 01:48:13 PM
Police in Colorado arrested man in front of his daughter when they went to the park

they were the only ones in the park at the time

the police later said they were sorry
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 01:54:19 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 01:48:13 PM
the police later said they were sorry
Couldn't have given them a warning and explained why,SMDH
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 01:56:33 PM
Folks around here make an effort to stay at a distance, but at times you can't, briefly.  Nobody gets arrested.  This is advisory, not legal, though some mayors and police may exceed their legal authority at times.

Closing a restaurant is different.  Closing an office space is not legal either.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 23, 2020, 02:01:38 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 01:56:33 PM
Folks around here make an effort to stay at a distance, but at times you can't, briefly.  Nobody gets arrested.  This is advisory, not legal, though some mayors and police may exceed their legal authority at times.

Closing a restaurant is different.  Closing an office space is not legal either.



Governments have closed office spaces in this area, for businesses deemed non-essential.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 02:03:24 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 01:56:33 PM
Folks around here make an effort to stay at a distance, but at times you can't, briefly.  Nobody gets arrested.  This is advisory, not legal, though some mayors and police may exceed their legal authority at times.

Closing a restaurant is different.  Closing an office space is not legal either.


testify

amazing just how having a little power can sometimes turn an otherwise sane individual into a little Napoleon 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 02:03:35 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 01:56:33 PM
Closing a restaurant is different.  Closing an office space is not legal either.
Perhaps if the proletariat didn't fall in line matial law could have been decreed,i dunno
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 02:05:56 PM
Americans want to do the right thing

strongarming should only be used as a last resort

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 02:08:13 PM
What exactly is martial law?  I know it means suspension of habeas corpus, which sounds scary to me, but what else does it empower?

https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/491155-can-the-president-declare-martial-law-in-response-to-coronavirus (https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/491155-can-the-president-declare-martial-law-in-response-to-coronavirus)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 02:13:39 PM
What exactly is habeas corpus.I go along and act like i know and keep quite not wanting to display the obvious.Or the "rit of",when did all these good old boys learn Latin?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 02:30:45 PM
I got the motive which is money and the body which is dead.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 23, 2020, 02:37:05 PM
https://apple.news/AAzEe9BIcTge-58I3BONYtA

Another study- this one from NY state- suggesting as many as almost 3 million people in NY had Coronavirus. My guess is it’s even more than that. Which is just more confirmation of the Stanford and USC/LA County studies....this thing is NOT that deadly.

What do you know. The leading epidemiologist in Sweden was right. Rest of the world was wrong.

Time to reopen. Immune compromised and old stay inside- everyone else back to normal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 23, 2020, 02:38:19 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2020, 01:20:09 PM
We haven't had one since about 2005. I got rid of my office phone about 3-4 years ago too. Nobody ever called on that line.

People always used my cell anyway, as I've had the same cell phone number since 1996.

That number's area code is 847. Random factoid and not a coincidence.
well, badgerfan has too many digits to be the remainder of the phone number
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 23, 2020, 02:43:03 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 02:05:56 PM
Americans want to do the right thing

strongarming should only be used as a last resort


I'd  go with some or many Americans

"what a field day for the heat, a thousand people in the street"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 23, 2020, 02:48:25 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 22, 2020, 06:36:34 PM
This whole thing was based off of models that have been way wrong

A lot of Americans recognize this and have had enough
Facts. 

I think in the end, all this thing will do is bring American people together in the realization that the mainstream media is absolutely useless and fake, and that politicians are ineffective and corrupt. 

My sincere hope is this thing breaks the back of the mainstream media and their ratings and revenues go into such decline that they start actually doing their job- and that corrupt career politicians on both sides like Pelosi or McConnell will be overthrown. I really hope a movement comes a long and takes over the Democratic and Republican parties and shifts them both in a different direction. We will never have a third party, so the only way for real change to happen is for movements lead by the people to hijack the parties establishment and progress them forward.    
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 23, 2020, 02:51:17 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 06:58:38 PM
You're acting like this is over.  Don't worry, the deaths will continue.  Then they'll wane.  Then they'll swell.  A roller-coaster of death.  Enjoy.
They will swell PRECISELY because of the idiotic complete lockdowns that are NOT evidence based. 

Sweden got it right and will be close to herd immunity when we will be having waves and waves of this shit. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 23, 2020, 02:53:24 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 22, 2020, 06:40:26 PM
What could have altered the trajectory of the spread?  :57:
The spread is actually not that relevant. How often does this thing kill is what is most relevant. The true mortality rate is what is important. The models were WAY off on the mortality rate. All of them. Way. Off.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 02:54:48 PM
The models are fine, they are standard models.  The inputs were faulty, because this is a novel virus about which we know little.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 23, 2020, 02:59:11 PM
and the mortality rate is being pumped up by rabid reporting practices

in good news, deaths by the regular flu, pneumonia, heart disease, cancer, and natural causes are way down 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 03:04:13 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 23, 2020, 02:53:24 PM
 The true mortality rate is what is important. The models were WAY off on the mortality rate. All of them. Way. Off.
From people I've talked to regarding Hospitals and Nursing facilities HERE,that would be correct - so far.I know our Governor got out front quickly 5 weeks ago.So Ohioans by& large have been sticking with procedure.I'm just questioning if it hasn't reached here full force,or the measures work or it clips the sick and weak.I believe we systematically go back to work in increments and follow rules in place
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 03:04:22 PM
I don't really trust any of the numbers, seriously.  Deaths can be over or under reported easily.  Confirmed cases?  There appear to be many unconfirmed cases extant.

The antibody tests appear to be coming in around the same figure, 15-20% infected at some point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 23, 2020, 03:05:02 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 02:13:39 PM
What exactly is habeas corpus.I go along and act like i know and keep quite not wanting to display the obvious.Or the "rit of",when did all these good old boys learn Latin?
A person arrested can only be held so long without being charged with a crime.

A writ of habeas corpus ("have the body") is effectively a "show cause" order to the incarcerating authorities to bring the detainee to court, and to either charge him or release him.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 03:06:39 PM
I am pretty sure he knows that, hence my quote about having the body which is dead.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 03:10:52 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 23, 2020, 02:59:11 PM
and the mortality rate is being pumped up by rabid reporting practices

in good news, deaths by the regular flu, pneumonia, heart disease, cancer, and natural causes are way down
of course they are cause instead of considering them as the cause of death coronavirus is listed as the cause of death

oh wait that was your point wasnt it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 03:12:06 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 23, 2020, 02:59:11 PM
and the mortality rate is being pumped up by rabid reporting practices

in good news, deaths by the regular flu, pneumonia, heart disease, cancer, and natural causes are way down
Ya because just maybe those numbers are being lumped together.If they don't have either the right tests or enough of them they're guessing albeit an educated one on the cause of death.They can't use the limited kits on corpses,oh they will and some one else will be screwed.As mentioned here the other day supposedly a couple of cats tested positive.Some one should be bitch slapped for that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 23, 2020, 03:19:53 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 03:06:39 PM
I am pretty sure he knows that, hence my quote about having the body which is dead.
I was bumfuzzled by your reference to motive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 03:27:49 PM
I always think of that quote with habeas corpus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 23, 2020, 03:55:58 PM
I don't know the quote.  Who said it, John Dillinger?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 23, 2020, 03:56:56 PM
Do as we say, not as we do. 


(https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/p960x960/94511288_2601805516699688_2663452594847875072_o.jpg?_nc_cat=105&_nc_sid=110474&_nc_ohc=OYTFFidBJF8AX9CLR-d&_nc_ht=scontent-iad3-1.xx&_nc_tp=6&oh=f296ae95d307ccf0663fbfe43ec76e15&oe=5EC77FB2)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 23, 2020, 03:57:19 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 23, 2020, 02:37:05 PM
https://apple.news/AAzEe9BIcTge-58I3BONYtA

Another study- this one from NY state- suggesting as many as almost 3 million people in NY had Coronavirus. My guess is it’s even more than that. Which is just more confirmation of the Stanford and USC/LA County studies....this thing is NOT that deadly.

What do you know. The leading epidemiologist in Sweden was right. Rest of the world was wrong.

Time to reopen. Immune compromised and old stay inside- everyone else back to normal.
Here's what they say about how deadly it is:



Quote
It also means that the fatality rate is likely lower than implied by merely examining confirmed cases and deaths. If 2.7 million people have been infected, that would put the fatality rate at about 0.5%, based on the death count of 15,500 the state used to make its calculation. Since then, the number of deaths in New York has risen to 15,740.

The current death count doesn’t include some people who may have died at home and weren’t diagnosed with Covid-19, and may also miss people who died earlier on in the outbreak before diagnostic testing became widespread.

Note that if you add in the stay-at-home deaths (according to worldometers.info):



Quote
New York State Governor Cuomo said that preliminary findings from an antibody study conducted on 3,000 people at grocery stores across New York State found a 13.9% had coronavirus antibodies, suggesting a 13.9% actual infection rate statewide (21.2% in New York City), which translates to an estimate of about 2,700,000 actual cases in New York State (10 times more than the about 270,000 cases that have been detected and reported officially). Governor Cuomo acknowledged that the official count reported by New York State (which still is not including probable deaths as recommended by the new CDC guidelines) of about 15,500 deaths is "not accurate" as it doesn't account for stay at home deaths. Based on Worldometer's count (which includes probable deaths reported by New York City) of about 21,000 deaths and the 2,700,000 case estimate from the new antibody study, the actual case fatality rate in New York State could be at around 0.78%

So it's somewhere between 5 to 8 times deadlier than the flu, and believed to be more transmissible to boot. 

Again, let's assume you get to 2009 H1N1 numbers, estimated at 60M cases nationwide. 0.5% to 0.78% gives you a total death range of 300K-468K. 

So your source, the Apple News article, suggests this thing is WAY more deadly than most of what we've dealt with in the past. 

As I said several days ago, due to uncounted cases I thought it was <1% and that we didn't have any strong evidence it was less than 0.3%. But given the numbers coming from NY, I'd say it justifies some pretty significant action.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 23, 2020, 04:11:08 PM
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/94129991_2578003292449201_336952695610933248_n.jpg?_nc_cat=104&_nc_sid=110474&_nc_ohc=yWF7RfeEDOYAX8VgwOq&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=4ecfe20c28f6b1f265e97f8b1698ac2d&oe=5EC93E8E)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 04:17:11 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 23, 2020, 03:05:02 PM
A person arrested can only be held so long without being charged with a crime.

A writ of habeas corpus ("have the body") is effectively a "show cause" order to the incarcerating authorities to bring the detainee to court, and to either charge him or release him.
I guess the reason Lincoln suspended this is there was alot of shady characters(or political enemies) hiding in the gray area.Basically he out schemed the schemers
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 04:18:44 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 23, 2020, 04:11:08 PM
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/94129991_2578003292449201_336952695610933248_n.jpg?_nc_cat=104&_nc_sid=110474&_nc_ohc=yWF7RfeEDOYAX8VgwOq&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=4ecfe20c28f6b1f265e97f8b1698ac2d&oe=5EC93E8E)
Well Michigan will be the 1st state cleared to go back to work j/k
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2020, 04:42:23 PM
https://www.chicagotribune.com/columns/john-kass/ct-coronavirus-pelosi-protests-kass-20200423-myi3o2gms5ghjbaxo23h6262xm-story.html

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 23, 2020, 04:43:16 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 23, 2020, 02:59:11 PM
and the mortality rate is being pumped up by rabid reporting practices

in good news, deaths by the regular flu, pneumonia, heart disease, cancer, and natural causes are way down
I've found the strength in the belief of this assertion interesting.

The evidence is, I'll call it interesting and not excessively strong. There was for a stretch a policy to undercount some of those people, which I'm sure some other group lost their minds over. But that belief has taken such a mighty hold.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 23, 2020, 04:45:36 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2020, 04:42:23 PM
https://www.chicagotribune.com/columns/john-kass/ct-coronavirus-pelosi-protests-kass-20200423-myi3o2gms5ghjbaxo23h6262xm-story.html


This is the guy we just got mad at over his flurish-filled description of the Michigan order?

Also, lord do I hate the word elite. Just a boogieman of a term. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2020, 04:53:27 PM
You hate ELITE?

Leave Minnesota out of this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 23, 2020, 04:55:18 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2020, 04:53:27 PM
You hate ELITE?

Leave Minnesota out of this.
I think in a political context, it's actually more meaningless than in a football context, and that's saying something. 

It does inspire some strong emotions, which makes it good for misdirection. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2020, 05:04:00 PM
What about an academic context?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 05:04:22 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 23, 2020, 03:57:19 PM
Here's what they say about how deadly it is:



Note that if you add in the stay-at-home deaths (according to worldometers.info):



So it's somewhere between 5 to 8 times deadlier than the flu, and believed to be more transmissible to boot.

Again, let's assume you get to 2009 H1N1 numbers, estimated at 60M cases nationwide. 0.5% to 0.78% gives you a total death range of 300K-468K.

So your source, the Apple News article, suggests this thing is WAY more deadly than most of what we've dealt with in the past.

As I said several days ago, due to uncounted cases I thought it was <1% and that we didn't have any strong evidence it was less than 0.3%. But given the numbers coming from NY, I'd say it justifies some pretty significant action.

The 21,000 estimate is for the entire state not just NYC while the test of 3000 is in NYC
at minimum much more testing is required before saying the virus is 5 to 8 times greater then the flu

I think they will find that in fact this virus has a lower death rate then the flu
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2020, 05:05:56 PM
When is it when we will all be tested? It's coming at some point, no?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 05:10:29 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2020, 05:05:56 PM
When is it when we will all be tested? It's coming at some point, no?
I THINK it is far more likely that perhaps 2-3-4% random population is tested for antibodies as well as for the infection and conclusions can be drawn from that.

Testing for infection should probably be limited to certain occupations because you can be negative one day and positive the next.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 23, 2020, 05:11:37 PM
Yeah, you talking about testing, like... 300 million+ people?  The answer to that is... never.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 23, 2020, 05:12:22 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 23, 2020, 04:17:11 PM
I guess the reason Lincoln suspended this is there was alot of shady characters(or political enemies) hiding in the gray area.Basically he out schemed the schemers
Well, there were some outright Confederate agents working in the border states, especially Maryland.  But along with those, he jailed some people who were just opposed to the war, or the way it was being fought, and said so loudly.  There were the "Peace Democrats," called "Copperheads," who were especially strong in Ohio, BTW, from which state came two congressmen who were key leaders, Clement Vallandingham and Alexander Long.
The controversy about Lincoln suspending habeas corpus is that the Constitution gives that power to Congress.  Congress was not in session when Lincoln suspended habeas corpus in parts of Maryland, so Lincoln did it by executive order, believing (correctly) that Congress would sustain his action once it came back into session.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 23, 2020, 05:12:43 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2020, 05:04:00 PM
What about an academic context?
I think that's just an approximation of the political meaning. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 23, 2020, 05:14:33 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 05:04:22 PM
The 21,000 estimate is for the entire state not just NYC while the test of 3000 is in NYC
at minimum much more testing is required before saying the virus is 5 to 8 times greater then the flu

I think they will find that in fact this virus has a lower death rate then the flu
Why exactly? 

And I don't mean that in a combative sense. I mean, is there a more solid underpinning for that belief that I should be looking at? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 05:19:23 PM
IF we end up with 60,000 deaths, and IF the virus has infected 10% of the US population (33.7 million people), the death rate would be about 0.18%.  And yes, that is a lot of IFs.

Typical flu death rate is lower than that by about half, typically.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 23, 2020, 05:43:53 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 05:04:22 PM
I think they will find that in fact this virus has a lower death rate then the flu
Not a chance. Flu is about 0.1%. Literally EVERYTHING we know about this, so far, suggests it's well above that.

There were a lot of people that lost their minds about the WHO saying 3.4% based on confirmed cases, but anyone paying attention knew that missed the uncounted cases and the real rate would be much lower. Heck, right now the death rate based on confirmed cases in the US is 5.66%. Bear in mind that's undoubtedly low, because the rate of new confirmed cases is high and it takes some patients a while to die, so the death rate based on TODAY's confirmed cases will grow.

But literally if you take the max upper bound of the Santa Clara study, which said that it was 28x to 55x actual infections compared to confirmed case rates, the MINIMUM extrapolation is 0.1%. If you take the New York study that suggests a 10x rate, you're looking at .56%. 

If this comes in anywhere near, much less below, the flu, I'll be shocked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 05:45:34 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 23, 2020, 05:14:33 PM
Why exactly?

And I don't mean that in a combative sense. I mean, is there a more solid underpinning for that belief that I should be looking at?
I feel that way cause Texas has 4000 deaths each year from the flu and this virus has accounted for 550 combine that with the fact that this virus is way more easier to catch then the flu tells me it has a lower death rate
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2020, 05:53:07 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 23, 2020, 05:12:43 PM
I think that's just an approximation of the political meaning.
Well, I still like John Kass. He goes after everyone from time to time, and always defends "the little guy".
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 23, 2020, 05:55:17 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 05:45:34 PM
I feel that way cause Texas has 4000 deaths each year from the flu and this virus has accounted for 550 combine that with the fact that this virus is way more easier to catch then the flu tells me it has a lower death rate
Again, do you think that the total number of Texans who normally would have caught the flu have caught COVID-19, in an environment where we've all started social distancing? 

We don't really do anything to avoid the flu, other than telling people who have it to stay the F home. We did something really aggressive for this.

In fact, some people claim that the fact that flu deaths are down is evidence that what would normally be called a flu death is being attributed to COVID-19. Isn't another possibility that because of all this social distancing, FAR fewer people are getting the flu this year? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 06:02:38 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 23, 2020, 05:55:17 PM
Again, do you think that the total number of Texans who normally would have caught the flu have caught COVID-19, in an environment where we've all started social distancing?

We don't really do anything to avoid the flu, other than telling people who have it to stay the F home. We did something really aggressive for this.

In fact, some people claim that the fact that flu deaths are down is evidence that what would normally be called a flu death is being attributed to COVID-19. Isn't another possibility that because of all this social distancing, FAR fewer people are getting the flu this year?
There is evidence the coronavirus has been around since Oct 2019 so yes I feel there is a huge number of people who have had this virus and has not been recognized

This is just my hunch I really dont feel like I need to heavily defend it

if Im wrong then so be it

but I think as more testing for antibodies occurs my view will be born out
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 23, 2020, 06:07:36 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 06:02:38 PM
There is evidence the coronavirus has been around since Oct 2019 so yes I feel there is a huge number of people who have had this virus and has not been recognized

This is just my hunch I really dont feel like I need to heavily defend it

if Im wrong then so be it

but I think as more testing for antibodies occurs my view will be born out
Again, see my previous post responding to @Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) ...

For the Los Angeles and Santa Clara studies on antibody testing, even if you used the HIGHEST multiplier for confirmed to undocumented cases, at BEST it gets you into the same range as the flu, not lower than the flu.

If you look at the New York data, it suggests somewhere in the 5-8x range of mortality relative to flu.

The actual mortality rates is WELL below the current 5.66% rate of deaths to confirmed cases, everyone agrees. What it actually is, is unknown. But less fatal than the flu is highly unlikely.

Edit: FYI you say you don't need to heavily defend it. But you're aggressively arguing for opening up the economy, which would be completely justified if this was less fatal than the flu, but probably not justified if this was in the 0.5-0.78% mortality range. So if you're going to argue policy, and if those arguments rest on your hunches about mortality rates, I think you should be prepared to defend your hunches.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 23, 2020, 06:08:55 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2020, 05:53:07 PM
Well, I still like John Kass. He goes after everyone from time to time, and always defends "the little guy".
Take the word "elite"--and the responses it gets--out of that column and he wrote a pretty solid piece.  It's easy for people whose income does not depend on going into work each day to undervalue the damage that shutting down is doing to many millions of their fellow citizens whose jobs do depend on working at workplaces.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 06:10:08 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 23, 2020, 06:07:36 PM
Again, see my previous post responding to @Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) ...

For the Los Angeles and Santa Clara studies on antibody testing, even if you used the HIGHEST multiplier for confirmed to undocumented cases, at BEST it gets you into the same range as the flu, not lower than the flu.

If you look at the New York data, it suggests somewhere in the 5-8x range of mortality relative to flu.

The actual mortality rates is WELL below the current 5.66% rate of deaths to confirmed cases, everyone agrees. What it actually is, is unknown. But less fatal than the flu is highly unlikely.
OK then the coronavirus and the flu are the same as far as death rates are concerned you win
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2020, 06:19:17 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 23, 2020, 06:08:55 PM
Take the word "elite"--and the responses it gets--out of that column and he wrote a pretty solid piece.  It's easy for people whose income does not depend on going into work each day to undervalue the damage that shutting down is doing to many millions of their fellow citizens whose jobs do depend on working at workplaces.
That's why I posted it. I didn't expect the word to trigger the response that it got, so my bad there??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2020, 06:22:18 PM
Illinois extended the shutdown through May 30 today. Some businesses will be allowed to open, like garden centers and greenhouses. Some retail can open, with curbside pickup or delivery only. Some state parks will start to open. So, some progress toward normal, whatever that is now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 06:38:17 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2020, 06:22:18 PM
Illinois extended the shutdown through May 30 today. Some businesses will be allowed to open, like garden centers and greenhouses. Some retail can open, with curbside pickup or delivery only. Some state parks will start to open. So, some progress toward normal, whatever that is now.
not enough but more then what some other states are doing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 06:39:54 PM
So, this was primarily to "flatten the curve".  To the extent that is correct, it was not to reduce the area under the curve, but to flatten it out so hospitals would not be overwhelmed.  Georgia is projected to have ample hospital capacity under the new guidelines, so the curve was flattened and we should be OK.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2020, 07:31:04 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 23, 2020, 06:39:54 PM
So, this was primarily to "flatten the curve".  To the extent that is correct, it was not to reduce the area under the curve, but to flatten it out so hospitals would not be overwhelmed.  Georgia is projected to have ample hospital capacity under the new guidelines, so the curve was flattened and we should be OK.
Correct. If you integrate the... never mind.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 23, 2020, 08:47:17 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 06:02:38 PM
This is just my hunch

if Im wrong then so be it
One side of the argument is like this.^^^


The other side of the argument is right.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 23, 2020, 10:42:34 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2020, 06:19:17 PM
That's why I posted it. I didn't expect the word to trigger the response that it got, so my bad there??
It didn't bother me, but I see bayarea's point.

"Elites" has been used so often it has become like "fascists."  It just means "people I don't like."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 06:47:40 AM
I see this "myth" that Kemp is reopening Georgia, which of course is not the case.  He is allowing some businesses to reopen, for better or worse.  A lot of things stay closed and those that reopen have additional guidelines.  Previously, I could not order takeout and sit at the restaurant and eat outside on one of their tables.  (We did anyway, some places had their tables roped off so we didn't there.)  Now, we can.  If I'm siting down at their table outside it's no different than taking the food to the park and eating.

Dining indoors at night will be different, you have exposure to a server and vice versa.  I also think some laid off workers are enjoying the extra pay of UE and won't come back, but servers are getting hammered because they lose tips.

I would have not reopened gyms and tattoo parlors at this point, but whatever.  Home Depot et al. was quite busy, we went yesterday for some hummingbird liquid.  Grocery stores and Walmart will continue as before.

I honestly do not think this is going to cause an explosion of cases, and the hospital capacity is projected to be fine anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 24, 2020, 08:38:08 AM
the Home Depot, Lowe's, and Menards here have been busier than usual.  And they are always busiest in the spring
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 08:42:33 AM
I was reading the list of local restaurants NOT reopening, and it's longer than the list that is opening.  I mainly hope they will let us order takeout and sit at their outside tables.  The weather is very nice again today, but this doesn't happen until Monday.

I wonder when they will start deciding to open for real with tables separated.  I think for many the workers prefer UE to working.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2020, 09:02:15 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 23, 2020, 10:42:34 PM
It didn't bother me, but I see bayarea's point.

"Elites" has been used so often it has become like "fascists."  It just means "people I don't like."
To me, it only reminds me how much of a clown Minnesota's coach is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2020, 09:05:23 AM
I think it's one thing to allow businesses to reopen. It's another thing to get customers into them.

Nobody I know is in a big hurry to go sit in a restaurant right now.

Lots of restaurants around here have turned themselves into markets. You can buy some really nice meats right now, for really nice prices.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 09:22:23 AM
I would very much like to dine outside.  For lunch anyway we almost never dine inside if the weather is remotely pleasant.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 09:34:07 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2020, 09:05:23 AM
I think it's one thing to allow businesses to reopen. It's another thing to get customers into them.

Nobody I know is in a big hurry to go sit in a restaurant right now.

Lots of restaurants around here have turned themselves into markets. You can buy some really nice meats right now, for really nice prices.
Yes. Which is why I'm not worried about some huge wave of people choosing to congregate in areas with lots of other people.

I don't foresee a mad dash to get in the vicinity of others, except from some of the younger groups of high school teens, college age kids, and young professionals. And many of them never stopped hanging out together anyway, they just kept it indoors and out of sight, so I don't see much increased risk from them socializing publicly.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 09:41:29 AM
Im convinced that the only way to beat this thing is through herd immunity without a vaccine

we need to reopen as much as possible while at the same time protecting certain high risk groups

it wont be easy but hay life is a bitch anyway so we might as well get on with it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 09:44:23 AM
A vaccine can be part of herd immunity.  I think we should monitor Sweden closely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2020, 09:45:25 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 09:44:23 AM
A vaccine can be part of herd immunity.  I think we should monitor Sweden closely.
I think there's people on that like white on rice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 09:54:49 AM
The wife has a close friend living in Sweden.  I've been in contact with her on FB.  Her perspective is that Swedes are not fools (duh) and are taking VOLUNTARY precautions, it is not carry on as usual at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 24, 2020, 10:02:19 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 09:44:23 AM
A vaccine can be part of herd immunity.  I think we should monitor Sweden closely.
So far it's quite interesting.

Sweden is 7th on the list of deaths/1M population with 213 (amongst populated countries, I leave off San Marino, Andorra, and Sint Maarten). Against their most direct peers (Norway at 36 & Finland at 32), they have roughly 6x the number of deaths per 1M residents. 

I also question their case counts, as their #tests/1M population is not particularly high relative to other OECD countries, and their death/case percentage is currently 12.2%, so I think they *must* have a high proportion of undocumented cases, i.e. they're only giving tests to people who they're fairly sure have it. 

Still, if they're able to do this while countries like Italy, France, Spain, and the UK are all shut down and have higher deaths/1M, maybe the strategy works well enough relative to mandated shutdowns. I think the next week or two will tell us a lot. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2020, 10:02:49 AM
Yep. That's what I heard too. Kinda like the states here that are not on shutdown order. Still being careful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 10:17:42 AM
https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-second-wave-resurgence (https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-second-wave-resurgence)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 10:22:41 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 23, 2020, 05:12:22 PM
Well, there were some outright Confederate agents working in the border states, especially Maryland.  But along with those, he jailed some people who were just opposed to the war, or the way it was being fought, and said so loudly.  There were the "Peace Democrats," called "Copperheads," who were especially strong in Ohio, BTW, from which state came two congressmen who were key leaders, Clement Vallandingham and Alexander Long.
Ya well just remember Ohio born Grant/Sherman/Custer/James A. Garfield and Presidents Rutherford B. Hayes and William McKinley both served in the 23rd Ohio Volunteer Infantry. to name a few
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on April 24, 2020, 10:23:31 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 23, 2020, 12:27:06 PM
I would totally agree with you here if the mask protection was reversed.  If wearing a mask was primarily for the wearer's benefit, you should be able to opt out, because you'd be risking your own health. 
But because it's primarily for other's benefit, and your opting out would be risking other's health, it's really their rights at play here.  You not wearing a mask puts them at greater risk. 


At least, that's the thinking behind it.  There's one thing I'll give my rights away for, and that's for the greater good. 

There are many times, I will "voluntarily" give up my rights, but I will not ascend to any government and/or other authority taking away my rights "for the greater good." I will fight it either actively or passively, but I will fight it. 

One of the premises of the founding of this country is that our rights are not given by the government, they are natural or God-given depending on your view. And because of this the government cannot take them away, except when I do something that causes me to give up those rights.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 24, 2020, 10:24:07 AM
Ahh, the world we live in...


Quote
On Friday, the maker of Lysol said that due to “recent speculation,” it wanted to urge people not to ingest their disinfectants. “We must be clear that under no circumstance should our disinfectant products be administered into the human body (through injection, ingestion or any other route,)” the Reckitt Benckiser Group said in a statement early Friday (https://www.rb.com/media/news/2020/april/improper-use-of-disinfectants/), adding: “Please read the label and safety information.”

Later on Friday, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency also cautioned against following the president’s suggestion, saying in a statement reported (https://apnews.com/7779be92028441b387418d87bca0437b) by the Associated Press: “Never apply the product to yourself or others. Do not ingest disinfectant products.”

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on April 24, 2020, 10:25:22 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 09:41:29 AM
Im convinced that the only way to beat this thing is through herd immunity without a vaccine

we need to reopen as much as possible while at the same time protecting certain high risk groups

it wont be easy but hay life is a bitch anyway so we might as well get on with it

So am I and if we had followed this from the beginning the damage that has been done to so many people wouldn't have happened. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2020, 10:26:51 AM
Quote from: Riffraft on April 24, 2020, 10:23:31 AM
One of the premises of the founding of this country is that our rights are not given by the government, they are natural or God-given depending on your view. And because of this the government cannot take them away, except when I do something that causes me to give up those rights. 
Interesting to think about this. There are people who are jailed - essentially giving up rights. They caused it. Many are now being released from jail, getting rights back, while others who abide the law are "losing" rights. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 10:32:32 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 23, 2020, 05:45:34 PM
I feel that way cause Texas has 4000 deaths each year from the flu and this virus has accounted for 550 combine that with the fact that this virus is way more easier to catch then the flu tells me it has a lower death rate
That kind of makes sense but we have to factor in the precautions like never before also.So where does that number really fall?I don't know
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on April 24, 2020, 10:32:57 AM
One of my professors from the Department of Civil Engineering just got funding for studying the transmission of COVID-19 through septic tanks, wells that don't treat with chlorine, and wastewater treatment systems. 

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/04/23/u-of-m-researchers-to-study-whether-coronavirus-could-get-into-drinking-water

Interesting stuff. I recall some discussion early on about fecal transmission, but it being largely written off due to the DIY nature of Chinese high rise plumbing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 10:36:33 AM
One can imagine the outcry had we not shut down the country.  This obviously gets politicized along with anything else that makes the news.

The outcry locally is pretty severe obviously.  I don't quite understand it personally.  As adults, we should be allowed to make decisions if we feel a tattoo parlor is not safe, don't go.  And yes, I understand that someone who does go may contract the disease and spread it.  But the social distancing concept appears to be limiting R naught significantly from what I can discern.  

Some higher end restaurants are going to open up on Monday with precautions.  I think many folks will stay in obviously an "see what happens".  The lag time on reading what happens is going to be a problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 10:41:35 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 10:36:33 AM
One can imagine the outcry had we not shut down the country.  This obviously gets politicized along with anything else that makes the news.

The outcry locally is pretty severe obviously.  I don't quite understand it personally.  As adults, we should be allowed to make decisions if we feel a tattoo parlor is not safe, don't go.  And yes, I understand that someone who does go may contract the disease and spread it.  But the social distancing concept appears to be limiting R naught significantly from what I can discern. 

Some higher end restaurants are going to open up on Monday with precautions.  I think many folks will stay in obviously an "see what happens".  The lag time on reading what happens is going to be a problem.

Hey CD, any idea what the hospitals look like in Atlanta, and around the rest of the state?  Are they overrun?  Keeping up?  Or has the wave crested and they're not that busy anymore? Were they EVER busy?  After all, the purpose of lockdowns/social distancing, was to flatten the curve and prevent hospitals from being overrun.  Did that work out in Georgia, to the point where the government believes it's okay to loosen the restrictions?

For obvious reasons, the rest of the country will be watching with 'bated breath.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 10:46:25 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2020, 04:42:23 PM
https://www.chicagotribune.com/columns/john-kass/ct-coronavirus-pelosi-protests-kass-20200423-myi3o2gms5ghjbaxo23h6262xm-story.html
That was a great article,thanx


"In this, America’s elites are very much like the wealthy rich in Boccaccio’s “The Decameron,” safe behind the walls of a secluded villa outside Florence, full of wine and full of ourselves, babbling on and on about love and morality during The Plague."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 24, 2020, 10:49:47 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on April 24, 2020, 10:32:57 AM
Interesting stuff. I recall some discussion early on about fecal transmission, but it being largely written off due to the DIY nature of Chinese high rise plumbing.
I think one of the reasons that the first SARS in 2003 flamed out so quickly was that it wasn't airborne; it was spread through mucus or fecal transmission.

So once places that had outbreaks were quite literally "cleaned up", it no longer transmitted. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 10:56:48 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 10:41:35 AM
Hey CD, any idea what the hospitals look like in Atlanta, and around the rest of the state?  Are they overrun?  Keeping up?  Or has the wave crested and they're not that busy anymore? Were they EVER busy?  After all, the purpose of lockdowns/social distancing, was to flatten the curve and prevent hospitals from being overrun.  Did that work out in Georgia, to the point where the government believes it's okay to loosen the restrictions?

For obvious reasons, the rest of the country will be watching with 'bated breath. 

Hospital utilization is well under any projection.  They added 200 more beds in the convention center recently.  It's not being used.  There was an early report that the hospitals were at ICU max, but that was due to a major water leak at the largest hospital in the area that wiped out three floors of ICUs.  That has been remedied, and a brand new hospital opened two floors early for COVID patients, also not being used.

I think this is a key part of Kemp's calculus.  The state, at least outside Albany, has plenty of capacity.  And people are not idiots in general, this isn't going to change behaviors overnight.  I would have kept gyms and tattoo parlors closed myself and just allowed outdoor dining.

One local gym we pass on our walks has ten or so folks working out in the parking lot.

Our small gym in the building is closed, I quit going before they closed it.  We don't have any known infections in the building.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 10:59:49 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 10:56:48 AM
Hospital utilization is well under any projection.  They added 200 more beds in the convention center recently.  It's not being used.  There was an early report that the hospitals were at ICU max, but that was due to a major water leak at the largest hospital in the area that wiped out three floors of ICUs.  That has been remedied, and a brand new hospital opened two floors early for COVID patients, also not being used.

I think this is a key part of Kemp's calculus.  The state, at least outside Albany, has plenty of capacity.  And people are not idiots in general, this isn't going to change behaviors overnight.  I would have kept gyms and tattoo parlors closed myself and just allowed outdoor dining.

One local gym we pass on our walks has ten or so folks working out in the parking lot.

Our small gym in the building is closed, I quit going before they closed it.  We don't have any known infections in the building.



Thanks.  I'd heard that ICU utilization was low in Atlanta, but also heard that initial report about being at ICU max, and had no idea it was unrelated.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 11:05:09 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 09:34:07 AM

I don't foresee a mad dash to get in the vicinity of others,


I hope you are right but if the economy isn't opened up soon a mad dash will morph into mayhem unprecedented.I'm starting to see cracks and they could be colossal.Rockwell's America could turn into Stephen King's right before our eyes.In stirring a course for a cure it could turn worse than the curse
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 24, 2020, 11:15:36 AM
Quote from: Riffraft on April 24, 2020, 10:23:31 AM
There are many times, I will "voluntarily" give up my rights, but I will not ascend to any government and/or other authority taking away my rights "for the greater good." I will fight it either actively or passively, but I will fight it.

One of the premises of the founding of this country is that our rights are not given by the government, they are natural or God-given depending on your view. And because of this the government cannot take them away, except when I do something that causes me to give up those rights. 
Again, your right to swing your fist ends at the tip of my nose...

Let's say you have a known, documented case of the flu and you're in the peak of contagious period. Should you be "allowed" to ride a crowded subway? Maybe sit between a mother bringing her newborn home from the hospital and a wheezing 90-year-old? Are you not infringing on everyone else's right not to be infected by you and essentially swinging your fist right through their faces? 

I realize that's extreme compared to the case of not having a known infection of Coronavirus. But in a global pandemic, is there no level to which it might be actually *necessary* to mandate precautions?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 11:17:06 AM
questions Id like an answer to:

once you get the virus are you immune forever or for a shorter period of time

does everyone who gets the virus become immune 

is it possible to get over the virus testing negative but still spread it

what is a true number of people with antibodies by state
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 11:17:44 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 11:05:09 AM
I hope you are right but if the economy isn't opened up soon a mad dash will morph into mayhem unprecedented.I'm starting to see cracks and they could be colossal.Rockwell's America could turn into Stephen King's right before our eyes.In stirring a course for a cure it could turn worse than the curse
People are going to venture out based on their own personal comfort with the risk levels.  Some will go out immediately.  Others will wait a couple of weeks.  Still others will wait a couple of months.

That's a good thing, as it will continue to slow the spread of the "Second Wave" or whatever you want to call it.  It will happen naturally without forced government-mandated closures.

Initially there won't be enough people out to sustain restaurants, bars, movie theaters, and other entertainment-oriented businesses.  So we'll continue to see a relatively high rate of failure amongst those businesses.  But if we don't start somewhere, we'll see even MORE failures.  

Obviously hotspots like NYC will remain shutdown far longer.  I feel for those folks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 11:21:01 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 24, 2020, 11:15:36 AM
Again, your right to swing your fist ends at the tip of my nose...

Let's say you have a known, documented case of the flu and you're in the peak of contagious period. Should you be "allowed" to ride a crowded subway? Maybe sit between a mother bringing her newborn home from the hospital and a wheezing 90-year-old? Are you not infringing on everyone else's right not to be infected by you and essentially swinging your fist right through their faces?

I realize that's extreme compared to the case of not having a known infection of Coronavirus. But in a global pandemic, is there no level to which it might be actually *necessary* to mandate precautions? 
there are many cases of physically impaired citizens having certain rights taken away

I cant drive without my glasses for example

this really isnt what the concern is
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 11:27:08 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 24, 2020, 11:15:36 AM
Again, your right to swing your fist ends at the tip of my nose...

Let's say you have a known, documented case of the flu and you're in the peak of contagious period. Should you be "allowed" to ride a crowded subway? Maybe sit between a mother bringing her newborn home from the hospital and a wheezing 90-year-old? Are you not infringing on everyone else's right not to be infected by you and essentially swinging your fist right through their faces?

I realize that's extreme compared to the case of not having a known infection of Coronavirus. But in a global pandemic, is there no level to which it might be actually *necessary* to mandate precautions? 
again to take away personal rights ijust because you may be infected in my opinion is not constitutional
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 11:28:26 AM
Driving is not a right.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 11:30:16 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 11:28:26 AM
Driving is not a right.
sure it is
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 11:32:09 AM
if a state can suspend personal rights out of concern you may have the virus then a state can confiscate all guns out of concern you may be a serial killer
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 11:32:52 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 11:17:44 AM
That's a good thing, as it will continue to slow the spread of the "Second Wave" or whatever you want to call it.  It will happen naturally without forced government-mandated closures.
Fairly certain the charities are winding down on meat supply/procurement.Bills are coming due all over the place and many can no longer hear"hang on will get through this together" that's touching but not accurate.As you point out it will happen naturally, follow regulations and procedure but the economy has to get into gear
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 24, 2020, 11:35:56 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 10:22:41 AM
Ya well just remember Ohio born Grant/Sherman/Custer/James A. Garfield and Presidents Rutherford B. Hayes and William McKinley both served in the 23rd Ohio Volunteer Infantry. to name a few
Great Ohioans all, MrNubbz!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 24, 2020, 11:38:02 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 11:17:06 AM
questions Id like an answer to:

once you get the virus are you immune forever or for a shorter period of time

does everyone who gets the virus become immune

is it possible to get over the virus testing negative but still spread it

what is a true number of people with antibodies by state
1: Unknown. This is a key aspect of any potential vaccine. If exposure doesn't confer permanent immunity, I don't know if a vaccine would. 
2: Unknown. We don't have enough information to know who has gotten it nor the length of immunity.
3: Yes, that much we know. Because we think the test has as high as a 30% false negative rate, you may get the virus, get tested and show up negative (due to test problems), get over it, but obviously during the symptomatic time [and slightly before] you can spread it.
4: Unknown, but we all want to know this with higher confidence.

This is why people are wary about "let 'er rip" opening things up... And when people tell you Sweden is going to reach herd immunity, that assumes that exposure confers permanent immunity. If immunity is only temporary, Sweden might be just as susceptible to a 2nd-wave pandemic as the rest of us. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 11:45:34 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 24, 2020, 11:35:56 AM
Great Ohioans all, MrNubbz!
Depends on your definition of great I suppose but certainly effective in their pursuits.Custer while brave to a fault allowed that bravado to needlessly get good men killed.Which intensified conflict with the Northern Plains Souix,Cheyenne and Arapoho
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 11:46:37 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 24, 2020, 11:38:02 AM

This is why people are wary about "let 'er rip" opening things up... And when people tell you Sweden is going to reach herd immunity, that assumes that exposure confers permanent immunity. If immunity is only temporary, Sweden might be just as susceptible to a 2nd-wave pandemic as the rest of us.
If immunity is only temporary we are in big trouble
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 24, 2020, 11:49:01 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 10:17:42 AM
https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-second-wave-resurgence (https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-second-wave-resurgence)
On 29 September 1918 USS Leviathan (formerly the largest-in-the-world German liner Vaterland) left New York for Brest.  She was one of the main carriers of troops to France, carrying 2,000 crew, and 9,000 troops. The voyage would prove to have the worst in-transit casualties of the deadly second wave of the Spanish flu. By the time she arrived at Brest on 8 October, 2,000 were sick, and 80 had died.

According to the account of Capt. Ernest W. Gibson of the 57th Pioneer Infantry, who was aboard Leviathan on that trip:

Quote
Official records show that within a few days after landing 123 of the men died at Kehruon Hospital, about forty at Base Hospital Number 33, several at Naval Base Hospital Number 5 and at the hospital at Landernau.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 24, 2020, 11:54:16 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 11:27:08 AM
again to take away personal rights ijust because you may be infected in my opinion is not constitutional
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 11:32:09 AM
if a state can suspend personal rights out of concern you may have the virus then a state can confiscate all guns out of concern you may be a serial killer
As with a lot of things, there's a balance. 

If the gov't said everyone was mandated to wear masks now and forever, that's one thing. If there's a global pandemic and they say "wear a mask until this passes" it's another...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 12:10:03 PM
A vaccine can still be of value IFF we are able to track how the virus mutates each year.  This is what the CDC attempts to do with influenza vaccine, they track what is happening in China and "predict" which strains will be most prevalent in October.  The flu vaccines of course are not 100% effective, but they are useful enough in generating herd immunity to keep the virus from spreading widely.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 12:15:17 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 24, 2020, 11:54:16 AM
As with a lot of things, there's a balance.

If the gov't said everyone was mandated to wear masks now and forever, that's one thing. If there's a global pandemic and they say "wear a mask until this passes" it's another...
well the Government didnt make that law for wearing masks in Houston (Harris county)

a judge did

which takes me back to my original gripe

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 12:16:24 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 12:10:03 PM
A vaccine can still be of value IFF we are able to track how the virus mutates each year.  This is what the CDC attempts to do with influenza vaccine, they track what is happening in China and "predict" which strains will be most prevalent in October.  The flu vaccines of course are not 100% effective, but they are useful enough in generating herd immunity to keep the virus from spreading widely.


agreed bring it on
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 24, 2020, 12:18:12 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 11:21:01 AM
there are many cases of physically impaired citizens having certain rights taken away

I cant drive without my glasses for example

this really isnt what the concern is
Great analogy.  Without glasses, you're at risk of injuries others, through no fault of theirs.  You won't always plow into someone, but the risk is too great, so you wear a device that minimizes that risk.  
Same with the mask.  Same potential probelms, same easy solution.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 24, 2020, 12:19:04 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 12:10:03 PM
A vaccine can still be of value IFF we are able to track how the virus mutates each year.  This is what the CDC attempts to do with influenza vaccine, they track what is happening in China and "predict" which strains will be most prevalent in October.  The flu vaccines of course are not 100% effective, but they are useful enough in generating herd immunity to keep the virus from spreading widely.


I'm not sure that coronavirii mutate as readily as the influenza type virii...

I think it's expected to be mutating more slowly and that vaccines will need to change less frequently than the flu...


https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-to-know-about-mutation-and-covid-19#The-bottom-line (https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-to-know-about-mutation-and-covid-19#The-bottom-line)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 24, 2020, 12:21:49 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 12:15:17 PM
well the Government didnt make that law for wearing masks in Houston (Harris county)

a judge did

which takes me back to my original gripe


If the concern is that this judicial mandate is an overreach, relative to waiting for the governor or state legislature as a rulemaking body, I can understand having a gripe with the mechanism.

But to pick a mask mandate in general as the hill to die on seems... Excessive. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 12:22:48 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 24, 2020, 12:18:12 PM
Great analogy.  Without glasses, you're at risk of injuries others, through no fault of theirs.  You won't always plow into someone, but the risk is too great, so you wear a device that minimizes that risk. 
Same with the mask.  Same potential probelms, same easy solution.
Nope because its a fact that I need glasses

its not a fact that I need to wear a mask

especially because the person requiring it is a judge

one person deciding for me and 4,000,000 others
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 12:26:53 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 24, 2020, 12:21:49 PM
If the concern is that this judicial mandate is an overreach, relative to waiting for the governor or state legislature as a rulemaking body, I can understand having a gripe with the mechanism.

But to pick a mask mandate in general as the hill to die on seems... Excessive.
well Im not sure where you live but all of a sudden when I leave my house I have to wear a mask and its a big deal to me

this judge made law instead of enforcing it

she way overstepped

She is being sued over this and the local police union has said they wont enforce it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 12:27:11 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 24, 2020, 12:19:04 PM
I'm not sure that coronavirii mutate as readily as the influenza type virii...

I think it's expected to be mutating more slowly and that vaccines will need to change less frequently than the flu...


https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-to-know-about-mutation-and-covid-19#The-bottom-line (https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-to-know-about-mutation-and-covid-19#The-bottom-line)
I'm obviously not sure either, as it isn't known at this point, but IF it mutates, a vaccine could still be effectively annually.

I don't think anyone has an effective vaccine against any corona virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 12:29:22 PM
I think a lot of the "laws" are illegal and can't be enforced.  A judge who mandates everyone wears a mask obviously is out of limits and there is no applicable statute with which to charge anyone.

Our right to peaceably assemble is still extant.  No one can take that away legally, but you might spend a lot of time in court to get there.

It's not even clear this could be done under US martial law.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2020, 12:29:54 PM
Masks are required in Illinois now. Governor said so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 24, 2020, 12:30:18 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 12:26:53 PM
well Im not sure where you live but all of a sudden when I leave my house I have to wear a mask and its a big deal to me

this judge made law instead of enforcing it

she way overstepped

She is being sued over this and the local police union has said they wont enforce it
California, so... Yeah... We've been implementing most of these things before the rest of the country.

I don't like the mask. I feel like a doofus wearing it.

That said, I started wearing it well before the mandate because someone else made a ruling it was necessary and I dare not defy her!

Her enforcement methods might be much more draconian!  :57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 12:31:55 PM
Wearing a mask in public is ILLEGAL in some jurisdictions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 12:34:57 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/iLokuBG.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 12:37:06 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/kSB6CfV.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 12:39:34 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 24, 2020, 12:30:18 PM
California, so... Yeah... We've been implementing most of these things before the rest of the country.

I don't like the mask. I feel like a doofus wearing it.

That said, I started wearing it well before the mandate because someone else made a ruling it was necessary and I dare not defy her!

Her enforcement methods might be much more draconian!  :57:
I have no problem with voluntary mask wearing

as you probably know Texans can be belligerent and dont like being told they have to do things

we dont think were better then anyone else but we like the idea of being asked not ordered

believe me if this state was a hot spot which it is not Id be the first one to put on a mask

there are only 10 other states that have better virus case numbers based on population then Texas
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 12:40:04 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/1HuITDo.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 12:46:01 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 12:27:11 PM
I'm obviously not sure either, as it isn't known at this point, but IF it mutates, a vaccine could still be effectively annually.

I don't think anyone has an effective vaccine against any corona virus.
Yeah, this is why I'm skeptical of the, "we have to wait for the vaccine before we're really done with this" line of thinking.  As far as I know, we've never had an effective vaccine for ANY type of corona virus.  I'm not sure why some people seem so certain we'll develop a vaccine for this one.

Suffice to say, I don't believe we can afford to base ANY public health or public policy decisions on the idea that we'll ever have an effective vaccine.  If it happens, that'll be fantastic and should be viewed as an unexpected good guy far, far down the road.   But there can be no policy made that assumes that we can, or will be able to, wait for a vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 24, 2020, 12:53:03 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 12:39:34 PM
as you probably know Texans can be belligerent and dont like being told they have to do things
That reputation does exist, lol ;-) 


Quote
believe me if this state was a hot spot which it is not Id be the first one to put on a mask

there are only 10 other states that have better virus case numbers based on population then Texas
Yeah, Texas has done well so far, which is admirable for being such a populous state with a couple of major metro areas. 

You know who else has done well, despite being a state you'd think WOULDN'T do well based on urban population density? California... As one of the first states to be hit, with huge amounts of international travelers to/from Asia, we're still doing really well on both cases/1M and deaths/1M. I'd venture to say we'd have become a hot spot without the mitigations that we have implemented, mask usage being one of them. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 24, 2020, 12:54:31 PM
I can't go through 198 pages and read about this stuff, so I hope this hasn't been talked to death.  I have been following this obsessively and my area is on the verge of exploding.

In my neck of the woods people are really pushing the "openupPA" narrative.  I live in county with a lot of blue collar workers, and we are now bursting at the seams with truly desperate people that are out of a job and are now (or soon will be) in terrible financial positions. 

According to the CDC, PA is in the absolute peak of infections at the moment, and we should start to see a decline very soon.  Experts are continuously cautioning that if we open right now, at peak infection levels, it would be disastrous. 

In my area, there has long been a struggle between science and tradition.  I live in an area with a very large proportion of Mennonite/Amish/Fundamentalist Christians, so there has always been tension.  They feel like scientists, "bean counters", and other "intellectuals" have taken away coal, steel, manufacturing, god in schools, etc. etc. etc. 

My county has a fairly large number of college educated people that travel to Philly or the suburbs of Philly for white collar jobs, too.  Most of this group still have their jobs, were in a better financial position to start with anyway, and tend to trust "experts". 

The combination of these two groups is like a powder keg ready to go off at any moment.  It's really scary around here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on April 24, 2020, 12:55:14 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 24, 2020, 11:15:36 AM
Again, your right to swing your fist ends at the tip of my nose...

Let's say you have a known, documented case of the flu and you're in the peak of contagious period. Should you be "allowed" to ride a crowded subway? Maybe sit between a mother bringing her newborn home from the hospital and a wheezing 90-year-old? Are you not infringing on everyone else's right not to be infected by you and essentially swinging your fist right through their faces?

I realize that's extreme compared to the case of not having a known infection of Coronavirus. But in a global pandemic, is there no level to which it might be actually *necessary* to mandate precautions? 

There is a big difference between Typhoid Mary and maybe you "might" be a carrier.  So yes my rights end where I damage you. However I am a firm believer that Tort law (in general) is what should govern these type of things not governmental law. And with that said, I am a pretty extreme libertarian, but I understand the way I think the relationship between the government and the people should be, it isn't that way. However, I will continue to make my case for it to be that way. 

Where my extremism comes into play in your scenario is this. If I am "knowingly" carrying a deadly virus and I go out and expose people to it and someone dies, I should be charged with murder. If some is exposed by me and are damaged, I should be subject to be sued in court to compensate for that damage. The key to this is "knowingly"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on April 24, 2020, 12:58:53 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 11:21:01 AM
there are many cases of physically impaired citizens having certain rights taken away

I cant drive without my glasses for example

this really isnt what the concern is
You don't have a "natural" right to drive on the roads because the government owns the roads therefore the right to drive on the road is governed by the owners of the road (One of the natural rights, the right to property)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 24, 2020, 01:00:38 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on April 24, 2020, 12:55:14 PM
There is a big difference between Typhoid Mary and maybe you "might" be a carrier.  So yes my rights end where I damage you. However I am a firm believer that Tort law (in general) is what should govern these type of things not governmental law. And with that said, I am a pretty extreme libertarian, but I understand the way I think the relationship between the government and the people should be, it isn't that way. However, I will continue to make my case for it to be that way.

Where my extremism comes into play in your scenario is this. If I am "knowingly" carrying a deadly virus and I go out and expose people to it and someone dies, I should be charged with murder. If some is exposed by me and are damaged, I should be subject to be sued in court to compensate for that damage. The key to this is "knowingly"
I don't think tort law would work in the real world like this.

If I'm desperate enough to be riding a bus when I'm sick, I probably don't have any money.  Sue away.  

Oh you want to arrest me because someone died with the flu after being exposed to me?  Well, it wasn't me, and you can't prove the flu came from me.  Also, I didn't even know I had the flu at the time.  Or I didn't realize how the flu was transmitted.  Or I was on my way home from the pharmacy...

Wait, you were on the bus, too right?  Nevermind, you probably can't afford a lawyer to sue me anyway.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 01:00:48 PM
https://atlanta.eater.com/2020/4/23/21233694/georgia-governor-brian-kemp-releases-restaurant-reopening-guidelines-covid19?fbclid=IwAR1fQ6nAeP23GdMW5uREngAL1r0E_5HPDZSX2rzWHdFNqP_ZpEPOxTSQ1Qg (https://atlanta.eater.com/2020/4/23/21233694/georgia-governor-brian-kemp-releases-restaurant-reopening-guidelines-covid19?fbclid=IwAR1fQ6nAeP23GdMW5uREngAL1r0E_5HPDZSX2rzWHdFNqP_ZpEPOxTSQ1Qg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on April 24, 2020, 01:05:01 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 24, 2020, 12:21:49 PM
If the concern is that this judicial mandate is an overreach, relative to waiting for the governor or state legislature as a rulemaking body, I can understand having a gripe with the mechanism.

But to pick a mask mandate in general as the hill to die on seems... Excessive.

I don't necessarily disagree about the hill to die on, but I could easily demonstrate how the domino effect has gotten us to a place where we don't protest much of anything the government (at all levels) does.

This is from a person who spent a bit of time in jail in his younger days fighting what I considered great injustice imposed on this country.  Those days are gone for me, I am now just a ridiculous older man tilting a windmills on the internet.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on April 24, 2020, 01:08:31 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 24, 2020, 01:00:38 PM
I don't think tort law would work in the real world like this.

If I'm desperate enough to be riding a bus when I'm sick, I probably don't have any money.  Sue away. 

Oh you want to arrest me because someone died with the flu after being exposed to me?  Well, it wasn't me, and you can't prove the flu came from me.  Also, I didn't even know I had the flu at the time.  Or I didn't realize how the flu was transmitted.  Or I was on my way home from the pharmacy...

Wait, you were on the bus, too right?  Nevermind, you probably can't afford a lawyer to sue me anyway.


Did you not read "knowingly"?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 01:12:08 PM
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/covid-19-vaccine-protects-monkeys-new-coronavirus-chinese-biotech-reports (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/covid-19-vaccine-protects-monkeys-new-coronavirus-chinese-biotech-reports)

For the first time, one of the many COVID-19 vaccines in development (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/record-setting-speed-vaccine-makers-take-their-first-shots-new-coronavirus) has protected an animal, rhesus macaques, from infection by the new coronavirus, scientists report. The vaccine, an old-fashioned formulation consisting of a chemically inactivated version of the virus, produced no obvious side effects in the monkeys, and human trials began on 16 April.

Researchers from Sinovac Biotech (http://www.sinovac.com/), a privately held Beijing-based company, gave two different doses of their COVID-19 vaccine to a total of eight rhesus macaque monkeys. Three weeks later, the group introduced SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, into the monkeys’ lungs through tubes down their tracheas, and none developed a full-blown infection.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2020, 01:18:43 PM
I just read about the parks in Illinois that will be opened up.

I also just read that hunting is still not allowed. Hmm.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 01:18:50 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 24, 2020, 12:53:03 PM
That reputation does exist, lol ;-)

Yeah, Texas has done well so far, which is admirable for being such a populous state with a couple of major metro areas.

You know who else has done well, despite being a state you'd think WOULDN'T do well based on urban population density? California... As one of the first states to be hit, with huge amounts of international travelers to/from Asia, we're still doing really well on both cases/1M and deaths/1M. I'd venture to say we'd have become a hot spot without the mitigations that we have implemented, mask usage being one of them.


I believe the main reason California has done very well is the fact that they had the virus at least 4 months before realized

they have herd immunity

I think more antibody testing will support this view
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 01:19:52 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2020, 01:18:43 PM
I just read about the parks in Illinois that will be opened up.

I also just read that hunting is still not allowed. Hmm.
you dont want Bambi to get the virus do you
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 01:23:24 PM
There's no need for binary thinking here, I don't see anyone "dying on the hill" of mask wearing.

I see people asking legitimate questions of their government about the effectiveness of a scarf in the face of viral spread.  And I see someone criticizing a judge for effectively creating legislation which is not an action that is within her purview or the roles and responsibilities of her job, and for very good reason.

There's nothing wrong with questioning our government when it makes unilateral mandates, I'd hope and expect everyone on this board would be willing to do so.

And there's nothing wrong with questioning whether ANY old face covering, including a scarf or ski mask, is actually going to be effective at all, and if not, then what is the utility or purpose in wearing them?

Regardless, I'll continue to wear my Longhorn-logo mask that my mom made me, whilst out in public.  When I wear my black raybans and my black Longhorn ballcap, I look like a total badass, and I might just continue wearing that getup long after this has all passed.

Maybe I'll throw in a cape, too.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 01:27:08 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on April 24, 2020, 12:58:53 PM
You don't have a "natural" right to drive on the roads because the government owns the roads therefore the right to drive on the road is governed by the owners of the road (One of the natural rights, the right to property)
1st of all the Government is the people and yes the people do own the roads

2nd the ability to drive is necessary in the pursuit of happiness by earning a living and just enjoying life in general

I can guarantee you that if for no reason the government or people decided they didnt want you to drive for no good reason

it would be held unconstitutional 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 01:28:39 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-latest-updates.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-latest-updates.html)

I like experimentation.  Usually.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 01:31:16 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 01:23:24 PM
There's no need for binary thinking here, I don't see anyone "dying on the hill" of mask wearing.

I see people asking legitimate questions of their government about the effectiveness of a scarf in the face of viral spread.  And I see someone criticizing a judge for effectively creating legislation which is not an action that is within her purview or the roles and responsibilities of her job, and for very good reason.

There's nothing wrong with questioning our government when it makes unilateral mandates, I'd hope and expect everyone on this board would be willing to do so.

And there's nothing wrong with questioning whether ANY old face covering, including a scarf or ski mask, is actually going to be effective at all, and if not, then what is the utility or purpose in wearing them?

Regardless, I'll continue to wear my Longhorn-logo mask that my mom made me, whilst out in public.  When I wear my black raybans and my black Longhorn ballcap, I look like a total badass, and I might just continue wearing that getup long after this has all passed.

Maybe I'll throw in a cape, too.


photos we demand photos
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 24, 2020, 01:35:08 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 01:18:50 PM
I believe the main reason California has done very well is the fact that they had the virus at least 4 months before realized

they have herd immunity

I think more antibody testing will support this view
This isn't quite right.

The studies from NYC and from USC (and Iceland, and South Korea), have shown that COVID probably has a much lower death rate on infections in the general population than originally suspected.  However, they also show that large numbers of people can carry the virus and have no idea they are carriers.  It also means that the Coronavirus is very likely FAR more contagious that we originally suspected.

A few things to keep in mind though:

The latest study shows that 13% or so of New Yorkers have Coronavirus antibodies.  However, more than 1 in 1000 New Yorkers have died from the Coronavirus and the hospitals were on the verge of being overwhelmed.  New York's death toll would be far higher if the hospitals ran out of capacity.

That 13% number is a bit suspect.  Chiefly because people were asked to volunteer for tests while waiting in line at grocery stores and other essential shops.  Obviously those who were more strict about social distancing would probably not be in public as often.

With evidence mounting that COVID is acutely more contagious than originally suspected, it makes an earlier timeline for this pandemic actually more unlikely.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 01:41:24 PM
If it is true that 15% or so have antibodies, it is possible the virus was here earlier than we think and not quite as contagious as we think.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 01:42:39 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 01:23:24 PM
 I'll continue to wear my Longhorn-logo mask that my mom made me, whilst out in public.  When I wear my black raybans and my black Longhorn ballcap, I look like a total badass,

RUH-ROH,If I bump into any COVID molecules I'll advise them to steer clear
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 24, 2020, 01:50:48 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 01:41:24 PM
If it is true that 15% or so have antibodies, it is possible the virus was here earlier than we think and not quite as contagious as we think.
No, that's inaccurate.

It means the virus is likely more contagious than we think.  That is assuming you trust the experts in the field.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 24, 2020, 01:51:07 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on April 24, 2020, 12:55:14 PM
There is a big difference between Typhoid Mary and maybe you "might" be a carrier.  So yes my rights end where I damage you. However I am a firm believer that Tort law (in general) is what should govern these type of things not governmental law. And with that said, I am a pretty extreme libertarian, but I understand the way I think the relationship between the government and the people should be, it isn't that way. However, I will continue to make my case for it to be that way.

Where my extremism comes into play in your scenario is this. If I am "knowingly" carrying a deadly virus and I go out and expose people to it and someone dies, I should be charged with murder. If some is exposed by me and are damaged, I should be subject to be sued in court to compensate for that damage. The key to this is "knowingly"
The problem when something like this pops onto the scene is that we don't know squat for certain. 

We know it's deadly. We're not sure HOW deadly, but it appears to be multiples of the flu.

We know it's easily transmissible. We're not sure HOW transmissible, but it seems to be multiples of the flu, at least. 

We know that it has a long incubation period, and that is transmissible prior to symptoms. We also know that there are asymptomatic carriers that we believe can transmit the virus. 

We have a severe test shortage, so it's damn near impossible to know who is carrying it. 

The problem with something so new, like this, is that if you wait until you know everything about it you're in full blown outbreak and it's WAY too big to control. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 01:56:03 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 24, 2020, 01:35:08 PM
This isn't quite right.

The studies from NYC and from USC (and Iceland, and South Korea), have shown that COVID probably has a much lower death rate on infections in the general population than originally suspected.  However, they also show that large numbers of people can carry the virus and have no idea they are carriers.  It also means that the Coronavirus is very likely FAR more contagious that we originally suspected.

A few things to keep in mind though:

The latest study shows that 13% or so of New Yorkers have Coronavirus antibodies.  However, more than 1 in 1000 New Yorkers have died from the Coronavirus and the hospitals were on the verge of being overwhelmed.  New York's death toll would be far higher if the hospitals ran out of capacity.

That 13% number is a bit suspect.  Chiefly because people were asked to volunteer for tests while waiting in line at grocery stores and other essential shops.  Obviously those who were more strict about social distancing would probably not be in public as often.

With evidence mounting that COVID is acutely more contagious than originally suspected, it makes an earlier timeline for this pandemic actually more unlikely. 
only way to find out for sure is to test suspected virus deaths from Oct to Jan

There should be a lot more testing done

the initial test was conducted in NYC I believe and used to represent the whole state
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 24, 2020, 01:57:46 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 01:18:50 PM
I believe the main reason California has done very well is the fact that they had the virus at least 4 months before realized

they have herd immunity

I think more antibody testing will support this view
Herd immunity doesn't tend to take hold until you have MUCH higher infection rates.

I think both the Santa Clara and Los Angeles antibody testing suggested a maximum infection rate of ~5%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity)

Per that, influenza requires about a 33-44% immunity rate (whether by actual infection or by vaccine) to achieve herd immunity. 

Highly contagious diseases like measles require >90% immunity rate to achieve herd immunity.

This is based on R0. The more transmissible something is, the higher the immunity rate necessary for the disease to start to die out. 

That site estimates COVID-19 could be anywhere between 29% immunity rate up to a 74% immunity rate, but that's because it has to accommodate a VERY wide range of R0 because we know so little about the true R0. 

But in no reality is a 5% antibody rate consistent with herd immunity. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 01:59:54 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 24, 2020, 01:51:07 PM
The problem when something like this pops onto the scene is that we don't know squat for certain.

We know it's deadly. We're not sure HOW deadly, but it appears to be multiples of the flu.

We know it's easily transmissible. We're not sure HOW transmissible, but it seems to be multiples of the flu, at least.

We know that it has a long incubation period, and that is transmissible prior to symptoms. We also know that there are asymptomatic carriers that we believe can transmit the virus.

We have a severe test shortage, so it's damn near impossible to know who is carrying it.

The problem with something so new, like this, is that if you wait until you know everything about it you're in full blown outbreak and it's WAY too big to control.

we also know that there probably huge numbers of folks that have had it gotten over it that no body knows about'

again we really dont know its any more deadly then the flu
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on April 24, 2020, 02:03:54 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 01:27:08 PM
1st of all the Government is the people and yes the people do own the roads

2nd the ability to drive is necessary in the pursuit of happiness by earning a living and just enjoying life in general

I can guarantee you that if for no reason the government or people decided they didnt want you to drive for no good reason

it would be held unconstitutional
I agree the ability to freely move about is a natural right, but that right ends at the property line of others. 

You better be careful, you are approaching the argument of the "anti-government" folks who say the constitution guarantees you the right to travel with no interference from the government (including driver's licenses). (I am just joking with you). Just for fun google it, you will find that are people quite vocal about it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 02:06:17 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 24, 2020, 01:57:46 PM
Herd immunity doesn't tend to take hold until you have MUCH higher infection rat
Stands to reason the virus hit the west coast/Cali earlier than other spots.Because of Chinese travelers  coming/going on business and visiting relatives in sizeable W.C.Communities.But right now that's 50% accurate
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 24, 2020, 02:09:16 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 01:59:54 PM
we also know that there probably huge numbers of folks that have had it gotten over it that no body knows about'

again we really dont know its any more deadly then the flu


We've already had more deaths in a month than the flu causes all year.  more than 1 in 1000 New Yorkers has died from COVID.

Yes, percentage wise, it is looking like the flu and COVID are probably similar.  But considering how much more contagious COVID is, it is far more deadly.  

Watch this video, it's 8 minutes and it is very well done.  

Coronavirus video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtN-goy9VOY)


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 02:11:14 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on April 24, 2020, 02:03:54 PM
You better be careful, you are approaching the argument of the "anti-government" folks who say the constitution guarantees you the right to travel with no interference from the government
"a little revolution every know and then is a good thing,don't you think?"  Captain Ramius to Jack Ryan
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 24, 2020, 02:11:59 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 01:59:54 PM
we also know that there probably huge numbers of folks that have had it gotten over it that no body knows about'

again we really dont know its any more deadly then the flu
That's what antibody testing should show us. 

The New York article Mdot cited yesterday, where they've done a lot of antibody testing, suggests that COVID-19 is 5-8x as deadly as the flu. My response to that article is here: https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/sports-and-coronavirus/msg209100/#msg209100 (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/sports-and-coronavirus/msg209100/#msg209100)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 24, 2020, 02:14:18 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 24, 2020, 02:09:16 PM

We've already had more deaths in a month than the flu causes all year.  more than 1 in 1000 New Yorkers has died from COVID.

Yes, percentage wise, it is looking like the flu and COVID are probably similar.  But considering how much more contagious COVID is, it is far more deadly. 

Watch this video, it's 8 minutes and it is very well done. 

Coronavirus video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtN-goy9VOY)
Here's from the CDC... https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html)

(https://i.imgur.com/rTBP8Fs.png)

For all the people that worry COVID-19 is being exaggerated because flu deaths are being classified as COVID-19, I think this shows that what would be normal trends for pneumonia and/or flu as cause of death are being blown straight out of the water by this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 02:14:41 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 24, 2020, 02:09:16 PM

We've already had more deaths in a month than the flu causes all year.  more than 1 in 1000 New Yorkers has died from COVID.

Yes, percentage wise, it is looking like the flu and COVID are probably similar.  But considering how much more contagious COVID is, it is far more deadly. 

Watch this video, it's 8 minutes and it is very well done. 

Coronavirus video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtN-goy9VOY)




This isn't entirely true.  It's true in New York, but it's not true in Texas.  We have not had more deaths in Texas due to COVID19, than we do from the flu, in an entire year, or really more like the 6 or so months of the flu season that we get down here.

I'm NOT making a statement regarding how deadly, or not, COVID is.  But we should start from a place of factual data if we're going to try to draw conclusions.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 02:16:58 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 02:14:41 PM
 But we should start from a place of factual data if we're going to try to draw conclusions.
That's just crazy talk
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 24, 2020, 02:27:35 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 02:14:41 PM
This isn't entirely true.  It's true in New York, but it's not true in Texas.  We have not had more deaths in Texas due to COVID19, than we do from the flu, in an entire year, or really more like the 6 or so months of the flu season that we get down here.

I'm NOT making a statement regarding how deadly, or not, COVID is.  But we should start from a place of factual data if we're going to try to draw conclusions.



Is there a Texas gene that make's y'all different from yankees?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 24, 2020, 02:28:53 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 12:27:11 PM
I'm obviously not sure either, as it isn't known at this point, but IF it mutates, a vaccine could still be effectively annually.

I don't think anyone has an effective vaccine against any corona virus.
They’ve never had a reason to make a vaccine for a coronavirus. Not really has anything to do with effectiveness of a vaccine. They’ve just never really had to do it. 

There’s only a handful of them that have infected humans with serious disease like SARS and MERS and they were contained and basically disappeared.  

The others basically just cause a common cold. No need to develop a vaccine for a common cold. 

This coronavirus is much different. Causes more servere disease than a common cold and spreads way more readily- hence why we have a world wide pandemic right now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 02:29:00 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 02:16:58 PM
That's just crazy talk
whats causing the NYC hotspot is the non closing of subways and trains

not saying they should have shut down the subway system just that they didnt
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 02:30:52 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 24, 2020, 02:27:35 PM
Is there a Texas gene that make's y'all different from yankees?
I mean... probably?  I sure would love to think so! :)

But there are clearly some factors that are resulting in differences in the outcomes from place to place.  What are they?  Characterizing and understanding those factors is incredibly important in our ability to fight this thing, with the fewest possible deaths and serious cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 24, 2020, 02:31:37 PM
Why the Second Wave of the 1918 Flu Pandemic Was So Deadly (https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-second-wave-resurgence)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 24, 2020, 02:35:52 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 02:14:41 PM
This isn't entirely true.  It's true in New York, but it's not true in Texas.  We have not had more deaths in Texas due to COVID19, than we do from the flu, in an entire year, or really more like the 6 or so months of the flu season that we get down here.

I'm NOT making a statement regarding how deadly, or not, COVID is.  But we should start from a place of factual data if we're going to try to draw conclusions.



I sometimes wonder about comparing the "factual" data because I find myself unsure if we're comparing like things. I mean, we're comparing numbers of deaths, but I've no true sense if these pots of data are comparable in testing rate and the like. I mean, last year's flu numbers come from six or so months of as-needed testing. So I just find that interesting. 

In the end, it is factual, but it's entirely possible and even probably to ascribe extra meaning to it. 

I also still find the idea of "in Texas" because of course places are so different even if we have the state borders drawn. I'm sure people in Ithaca are saying "It's true in NYC but not here." And in the same token, Houston isn't Plainview and Pampa isn't Dallas. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 02:40:34 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 24, 2020, 02:27:35 PM
Is there a Texas gene that make's y'all different from yankees?
Well Yinzers and Appalachian Hillbillies are now Yankees?As Briars(S.Ohioans/Hoosiers) and Bucknuts - this is all complicated
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 24, 2020, 03:00:25 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 02:30:52 PM
I mean... probably?  I sure would love to think so! :)

But there are clearly some factors that are resulting in differences in the outcomes from place to place.  What are they?  Characterizing and understanding those factors is incredibly important in our ability to fight this thing, with the fewest possible deaths and serious cases.
Texas is warmer, more spread out, and smaller than Alaska.  So I get what you're saying. Different than New York.  So best I could find was that 2.9K died in Texas from the flu in 2017, while New York had 4.7K flu deaths.  Pretty significant.

So what you're saying is:  No matter what, all things being equal, NEW YORK would probably have it worse than Texas.

Yeah, probably.  I know 5 people that have/had coronavirus.  It's bad in our area.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 03:09:06 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 24, 2020, 03:00:25 PM
Texas is warmer, more spread out, and smaller than Alaska.  So I get what you're saying. Different than New York.  So best I could find was that 2.9K died in Texas from the flu in 2017, while New York had 4.7K flu deaths.  Pretty significant.

So what you're saying is:  No matter what, all things being equal, NEW YORK would probably have it worse than Texas.

Yeah, probably.  I know 5 people that have/had coronavirus.  It's bad in our area.

That's not really what I'm trying to say, although it might come out that way in the wash?

Just my personal speculation, I think there are a LOT of potential factors that play into it.  I don't think we know much yet, what those factors are.  We have some guesses, some hypotheses worth investigating, is all.

Right now, some of the experts are saying they don't see evidence that warmer weather is going to be a major factor.  But perhaps they're wrong and it is?  

Density might also be a factor, but we're seeing some very dense places that aren't being hit as badly as New York (city).



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 03:11:43 PM
I suspect NYC was hit by travelers from Europe returning not knowing they were contagious at the time, and perhaps visitors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 03:17:23 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 03:11:43 PM
I suspect NYC was hit by travelers from Europe returning not knowing they were contagious at the time, and perhaps visitors.
For sure, I think that's one of the major assumptions here.  But they also had government-mandated restrictions and lockdowns before Texas did. 

And California most assuredly had massive amounts of Chinese travelers, that we suspect were also contagious and not knowing it at the time.  Yet they're not having the same issues that NY is having.  I think it's very important that we determine the cause of the different outcomes, not just for managing this crisis, but for setting plans in place for managing the next one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 03:24:27 PM
NYC is a lot denser than even SF per unit area, and subway usage is obviously very prevalent, as are cabs and Uber etc.  A lot of folks living in NYC don't have personal cars (more than SF).  LA is spread out, as is Seattle (which is pretty dense downtown).  I don't think any place in the US has the population density of Manhattan.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 03:32:03 PM
s-u-b-w-a-y-s

all citys with major subway systems which were never shut down are hot spots
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 03:35:10 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 03:32:03 PM
s-u-b-w-a-y-s

all citys with major subway systems which were never shut down are hot spots

Certainly could be a contributing factor.  I think it's something we need to understand, deeply, in addressing both this crisis, and the next one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 24, 2020, 03:42:19 PM
driving on the highway w/o my prescription glasses would be very dangerous to others, but driving w/o my seat belt buckled or riding my motorcycle w/o wearing a helmet doesn't bother anyone besides the insurance company

speaking of insurance companies, it's illegal for me to drive w/o proof of insurance
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 03:43:14 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 03:11:43 PM
I suspect NYC was hit by travelers from Europe returning not knowing they were contagious at the time, and perhaps visitors.
And subway riders not using masks/sanitzer,distancing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 03:46:08 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 24, 2020, 03:42:19 PM
 riding my motorcycle w/o wearing a helmet doesn't bother anyone besides the insurance company
A friend one time was talking to a paramedic and asked if there was a difference between wearing a helmet or not.He responded an open or closed casket
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 24, 2020, 03:49:45 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 03:09:06 PM
Right now, some of the experts are saying they don't see evidence that warmer weather is going to be a major factor.  But perhaps they're wrong and it is? 

I've been watching Malaysia more closely because it's an important part of the supply chain for my industry, and when their cases started jumping it was hot as hell there. They're on lockdown right now, which seems to have cut the spread well, but the heat didn't seem to stop the spread.

I have a customer in Singapore and they just extended their lockdown to June 1. It's hot, humid, and rainy there, and yet their cases have spiked hard in the last 1-2 weeks. 

So I don't see the evidence that this will be stopped by warmer weather.

(Note: this also may affect the argument regarding why CA/TX are doing well and NY/NJ/MI/IL are doing so much worse... I'm not sure we can look to weather as the answer.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 03:53:09 PM
Sunlight supposedly
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 24, 2020, 03:58:46 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 03:53:09 PM
Sunlight supposedly
Problem is that UV may kill it on surfaces (UV from the sun kills a lot of things), but probably isn't fast-acting enough to control it regarding actual suspended droplets in the air. 

But... I guess this means they can re-open all the tanning salons!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 24, 2020, 04:01:28 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 03:53:09 PM
Sunlight supposedly
this is my understanding
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 24, 2020, 04:02:58 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 03:46:08 PM
A friend one time was talking to a paramedic and asked if there was a difference between wearing a helmet or not.He responded an open or closed casket
back in the 70's when I started riding murdercycles

Bell used advertising that stated: if you have a $10 head, wear a $10 helmet
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 04:06:48 PM
So what did you do :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 24, 2020, 04:31:06 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 24, 2020, 04:02:58 PM
back in the 70's when I started riding murdercycles

Bell used advertising that stated: if you have a $10 head, wear a $10 helmet
Ive never found a $10 head
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2020, 04:42:17 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 24, 2020, 03:58:46 PM
Problem is that UV may kill it on surfaces (UV from the sun kills a lot of things), but probably isn't fast-acting enough to control it regarding actual suspended droplets in the air.

But... I guess this means they can re-open all the tanning salons!

I've never fake baked anyway, but could you imagine crawling into one of those things now?  The assumptions you'd be forced to make about the effort and dedication of the cleaning program and staff-- at a tanning salon?

***shudder***
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 04:58:37 PM
From what I've seen, UV takes around ten minutes to kill viruses.  Devices are sold to hit say a truck cab with UV for this purpose, you can't be inside the cab if it's on.

UV is high energy stuff and can mess up more than viruses if intense enough and at longer duration.

I prefer a shopping cart from the parking lot to the ones indoors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 24, 2020, 05:21:55 PM
the ones indoors are supposedly scrubbed with bleach
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 05:31:03 PM
They are wiped down with some solution, I wouldn't say scrubbed.  I wipe my cart down with a wipe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 24, 2020, 06:44:23 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 02:40:34 PM
Well Yinzers and Appalachian Hillbillies are now Yankees?As Briars(S.Ohioans/Hoosiers) and Bucknuts - this is all complicated
In my experience, after living in Alabama twice, North Carolina three times, Georgia once, and in Texas once but for 5 years, it seems that many people who call other people Yankees do so referring to anyone significantly north of themselves.  Kentuckians might refer to Ohioans as Yankees, but Alabamians might refer to Kentuckians or West Virginians as Yankees. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 24, 2020, 06:51:08 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 24, 2020, 03:42:19 PM
driving on the highway w/o my prescription glasses would be very dangerous to others, but driving w/o my seat belt buckled or riding my motorcycle w/o wearing a helmet doesn't bother anyone besides the insurance company

speaking of insurance companies, it's illegal for me to drive w/o proof of insurance
Actually, driving without a buckled seat belt impairs your ability to control your vehicle in an emergency situation, because you end up hanging on to the steering wheel for dear life rather than using it to control where you are going.
Tests have been run . . . .
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 24, 2020, 06:53:44 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 24, 2020, 03:46:08 PM
A friend one time was talking to a paramedic and asked if there was a difference between wearing a helmet or not.He responded an open or closed casket
With all due respect to your 3rd-hand information on this, MrNubbz, there is a bigger difference than that.  Probably not if you leave the bike at 100 mph, but in a slow-speed accident, definitely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 06:57:11 PM
When I went to UNC, I felt like I was surrounded by a bunch of D Yankees.

The talked funny.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2020, 06:58:45 PM
Shoulda went to (the state of) Madison for school. It's warm in the winter because of the lakes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2020, 07:03:08 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2020, 06:58:45 PM
Shoulda went to (the state of) Madison for school. It's warm in the winter because of the lakes.
Um, .... NO.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 25, 2020, 12:55:47 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2020, 06:19:17 PM
That's why I posted it. I didn't expect the word to trigger the response that it got, so my bad there??
It's probably more of a pet peeve of mine. I think words can be powerful. They invoke strong emotion and action. That particular word is often used to invoke strong emotion, and I often feel like it's used for a bit of slight of hand. Someone who would likely qualify for the descriptor uses is to sort of reflect. By dropping it, they imply they are not "elites" because they stand opposed to such people. And sometimes the people they turn it to are so broad and faceless, they don't really qualify for the title at all. 

I feel like I've seen some TV talking heads, one's paid millions a year, who will rail about the "elites" and then depart by car service to their massive homes in NY or DC. I've seen a president who puts his name on massive buildings in the heart of NY decry such elites. It because a a way of saying "This person I don't like looks down at you, so be mad at them and maybe don't look at me or the influence I try to wield."

In the end, I find it an evocative but lazy descriptor. Like if you'd like to blast that particular politician for being rich and having the things rich folks have, that's cool. But I think then we can turn it and blast all rich politicians, and then all rich folks who try to use their success as a base to wield influence. And at a point, you maybe shouldn't listen to anyone successful because chances are, they there some way they don't know how it is for most folks.

Oddly enough, the writer had to roll it back, essentially calling himself an elite and saying he was really only referring to "TV talking heads, politicians and bureaucrats," which is basically a who's who of kind of meaningless broad groups that no one likes on balance. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on April 25, 2020, 01:21:57 AM
Ah, the lakes. This is why the worst season for cities near the Great Lakes is actually the spring.  The MF lakes take so long to warm up it completely dominates the climate.  Spring does not exist in Milwaukee/Chicago, etc.

Amazing what 5-10 miles inland does in those locales.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 25, 2020, 09:16:32 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 25, 2020, 12:55:47 AM
It's probably more of a pet peeve of mine. I think words can be powerful. They invoke strong emotion and action. That particular word is often used to invoke strong emotion, and I often feel like it's used for a bit of slight of hand. Someone who would likely qualify for the descriptor uses is to sort of reflect. By dropping it, they imply they are not "elites" because they stand opposed to such people. And sometimes the people they turn it to are so broad and faceless, they don't really qualify for the title at all.

I feel like I've seen some TV talking heads, one's paid millions a year, who will rail about the "elites" and then depart by car service to their massive homes in NY or DC. I've seen a president who puts his name on massive buildings in the heart of NY decry such elites. It because a a way of saying "This person I don't like looks down at you, so be mad at them and maybe don't look at me or the influence I try to wield."

In the end, I find it an evocative but lazy descriptor. Like if you'd like to blast that particular politician for being rich and having the things rich folks have, that's cool. But I think then we can turn it and blast all rich politicians, and then all rich folks who try to use their success as a base to wield influence. And at a point, you maybe shouldn't listen to anyone successful because chances are, they there some way they don't know how it is for most folks.

Oddly enough, the writer had to roll it back, essentially calling himself an elite and saying he was really only referring to "TV talking heads, politicians and bureaucrats," which is basically a who's who of kind of meaningless broad groups that no one likes on balance.
Hollywood comes to mind. And PJ Barnum.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 25, 2020, 09:31:03 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 24, 2020, 06:51:08 PM
Actually, driving without a buckled seat belt impairs your ability to control your vehicle in an emergency situation, because you end up hanging on to the steering wheel for dear life rather than using it to control where you are going.
Tests have been run . . . .
I'd have liked to be a tester

when the situation is extreme enough that the seat belt is holding yer butt to the seat, the average driver is F'ed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 25, 2020, 09:42:42 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 25, 2020, 09:31:03 AM
I'd have liked to be a tester

when the situation is extreme enough that the seat belt is holding yer butt to the seat, the average driver is F'ed
growing up in the 60s there were two things you never saw in your car

seat belts

air conditioner

somehow we managed to survive without them

and the consoles werent made of soft cushy plastic
nope they were made of metal which if you were in an accident were very unforgiving 

under the hood you actually had distributors not this computer chip stuff

again somehow we managed to get along without them 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 25, 2020, 09:43:33 AM
Yeah, if g forces are high enough that your seat belt is keeping you in position, you probably are out of control anyway for most drivers and panicked.

Most drivers never experience lateral gs anywhere near what a car can do, which generally is about 0.8 even for a regular car.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 25, 2020, 09:45:09 AM
Most folks back then didn't have accidents, if they did, the fatality rates would be very high.  My dad had seat belts installed in our 1963 Chevy.  Our 1965 malibu had seat belts from the factory and factory air, which was a novel thing.

That car had a 307 engine as I recall, it was "fancy".
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 25, 2020, 09:51:05 AM
Quote from: MarqHusker on April 25, 2020, 01:21:57 AM
Ah, the lakes. This is why the worst season for cities near the Great Lakes is actually the spring. 
The lake doesn't freeze over as much as it use to,much to the chagrin of us ice fisherman or snowmobilers.But In Old Cleveland Stadium that was right on the lake the 1st 2-3 weeks of the Indians season could be brutal.Look out from your seats over the lake and there were still huge swaths of ice.That old stadium was brick/mortar/steel and once cold it didn't thaw until like the beginning of june.Set your beer down and it was a slushie in an inning or two.It was funny when there were smaller crowds they would follow the sun around to what ever section it shined on as the game went along.More often than not the Indians opener was as cold as the Browns season finale.Was about 8-9 years ago Cleveland rerouted their opener to balmy Milwaukee it was cold/snowing here for a week
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 25, 2020, 10:02:19 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 25, 2020, 09:42:42 AM
growing up in the 60s there were two things you never saw in your car

seat belts

air conditioner

somehow we managed to survive without them

and the consoles werent made of soft cushy plastic
nope they were made of metal which if you were in an accident were very unforgiving

under the hood you actually had distributors not this computer chip stuff

again somehow we managed to get along without them
I mean, we also got by without penicillin and with the black plague. None the less, probably fine. (This is more about seatbelt. If you have a strong desire to drive around Texas without AC, have at)

This led me down an interest rabbit hole when I learned there was a short moment when they considered seatbelt interlock systems (not very good ones). When I was younger, I often wondered if one could remove the social stigma against breathalyzer interlocks. I suppose the cost would be prohibitive. But man, a car that made you aware you were drunk, that seems like a not bad idea. (I know, I know, it's easily beat, especially for a degenerate with a child)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 25, 2020, 10:09:33 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 25, 2020, 10:02:19 AM
 If you have a strong desire to drive around Texas without AC, have at
I remember years ago when AC wasn't standard.Someone who bought a new car and showing it off would retort that it had 270 AC,roll down 2 windows and go 70
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 25, 2020, 10:12:23 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 25, 2020, 10:02:19 AM
I mean, we also got by without penicillin and with the black plague. None the less, probably fine. (This is more about seatbelt. If you have a strong desire to drive around Texas without AC, have at)

This led me down an interest rabbit hole when I learned there was a short moment when they considered seatbelt interlock systems (not very good ones). When I was younger, I often wondered if one could remove the social stigma against breathalyzer interlocks. I suppose the cost would be prohibitive. But man, a car that made you aware you were drunk, that seems like a not bad idea. (I know, I know, it's easily beat, especially for a degenerate with a child)
Life was much simpler 

There only about 10 things that could break in your car engine and you  didnt need a $100 an hour mechanic with a diagnostic machine to tell you what was wrong

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 25, 2020, 11:16:25 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 25, 2020, 09:42:42 AM
growing up in the 60s there were two things you never saw in your car

seat belts

air conditioner

somehow we managed to survive without them

and the consoles werent made of soft cushy plastic
nope they were made of metal which if you were in an accident were very unforgiving

under the hood you actually had distributors not this computer chip stuff

again somehow we managed to get along without them
Another thing you never see anymore.
45-50,000 Americans--in a population less than 2/3 of our current one--dying in car wrecks every year.
Cars are better, safer, cleaner, and more efficient today.  You can defeat a lot of the "safer" part by not wearing your seatbelt, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 25, 2020, 11:18:24 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 25, 2020, 09:31:03 AM
I'd have liked to be a tester

when the situation is extreme enough that the seat belt is holding yer butt to the seat, the average driver is F'ed
If you're buckled in, you can survive far worse collisions than you could if you were not.

And you're also less of a threat to the other drivers on the road.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 25, 2020, 11:27:42 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWP7SPUX0Ak3dqM.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 25, 2020, 11:34:18 AM
I remember in driver's ed we sat in a machine that dropped your seat at a 45° incline to simulate a 12 mph collision with solid object.  It was very jarring, no way you'd stay put at that deceleration.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 25, 2020, 01:55:54 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 25, 2020, 11:27:42 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWP7SPUX0Ak3dqM.jpg)

Ha!  That's fantastic!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 25, 2020, 02:25:02 PM
Real Reason for mask shortages

(https://i.imgur.com/dqDEPXz.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 25, 2020, 02:57:20 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWTje_3VAAA8OhE.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 25, 2020, 03:23:52 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 25, 2020, 09:42:42 AM
growing up in the 60s there were two things you never saw in your car

seat belts

air conditioner

somehow we managed to survive without them

and the consoles werent made of soft cushy plastic
nope they were made of metal which if you were in an accident were very unforgiving

under the hood you actually had distributors not this computer chip stuff

again somehow we managed to get along without them
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 25, 2020, 04:05:56 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 25, 2020, 09:42:42 AM
growing up in the 60s there were two things you never saw in your car

seat belts

air conditioner

somehow we managed to survive without them
Yeah, the death rate back then was double what it was now, and 4x higher if you go by miles driven.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 25, 2020, 04:08:18 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 25, 2020, 10:12:23 AM
Life was much simpler

There only about 10 things that could break in your car engine and you  didnt need a $100 an hour mechanic with a diagnostic machine to tell you what was wrong


Boo!  Technology sucks!  :banghead:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 25, 2020, 04:27:28 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 25, 2020, 04:08:18 PM
Boo!  Technology sucks!  :banghead:
sometimes it does

gone are the day when a normal individual could work on his car under the shade of a tree

now days you need special diagnostic equipment and an advanced degree in auto mechanics

sometimes the faster we go the behinder we get
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 25, 2020, 04:45:38 PM
Some of us are more behind than others.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 25, 2020, 04:50:49 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 25, 2020, 04:45:38 PM
Some of us are more behind than others.
OAM have I done something to you

is there a reason why you need to attack me 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 25, 2020, 04:55:25 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 25, 2020, 03:23:52 PM
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias
A version of this was me with speeding until nearly age 22. Like I just figured I was invincible because I'd never been caught speeding. 

Then I caught two tickets in six months, one 23 over, and I realized I liked money more than going fast. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 25, 2020, 05:02:45 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 25, 2020, 04:55:25 PM
A version of this was me with speeding until nearly age 22. Like I just figured I was invincible because I'd never been caught speeding.

Then I caught two tickets in six months, one 23 over, and I realized I liked money more than going fast.
when we are young all that is important is getting to our destination as fast as we can and the older we get we start enjoying the ride and not the speed 

at least thats my story
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 25, 2020, 05:40:09 PM
I’ve lost count but I think I’ve been pulled over around 20-22 times in my life for various reasons and those pullovers have resulted in around 10-11 tickets.

The thing is, I don’t consider myself a lead foot or unsafe driver or anything. My problem is I am seemingly incapable of going  25 or 35 mph.   Almost all of my tickets have come in a 25 or 35.  I rarely go over 75 but I rarely go under 45 and that’s where I get in trouble.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 25, 2020, 06:00:31 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 25, 2020, 05:02:45 PM
when we are young all that is important is getting to our destination as fast as we can and the older we get we start enjoying the ride and not the speed

at least thats my story
I liked having more money. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 25, 2020, 06:04:44 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 25, 2020, 06:00:31 PM
I liked having more money.
cruise control is your friend
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 25, 2020, 06:25:07 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on April 25, 2020, 05:40:09 PM
I’ve lost count but I think I’ve been pulled over around 20-22 times in my life for various reasons and those pullovers have resulted in around 10-11 tickets.

The thing is, I don’t consider myself a lead foot or unsafe driver or anything. My problem is I am seemingly incapable of going  25 or 35 mph.  Almost all of my tickets have come in a 25 or 35.  I rarely go over 75 but I rarely go under 45 and that’s where I get in trouble.
You're nothing but a hooligan.

I've been pulled over 4 times in my life, two of them were within 2 years of my 16th birthday...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 25, 2020, 06:27:55 PM
Marked safe from the Georgia reopening, .... so far ....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 25, 2020, 06:47:26 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 25, 2020, 06:27:55 PM
Marked safe from the Georgia reopening, .... so far ....
Stay healthy, my friend.  You're our "inside man" on the front lines.  Hang in there.

Also, if you actually do decide to go to a restaurant, if you don't mind... please... tell us... what's it like???? ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 25, 2020, 06:53:29 PM
I stopped at the butcher shop today and bought a porterhouse for $27.  The wife asked me what it was.

The shop was busy, they were letting three in at a time.

I saw one gym open and another working in the parking lot, one nail salon was open.  Most restaurants around us are not reopening except take out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 25, 2020, 06:56:01 PM
I'll admit, I could use a haircut. I'd be really really happy to see my haircutter.   I'd already let it go about 3 months, when this all started.  So now we're another 7 weeks down the road.  It's not pretty.

On the plus side, I still have a sh'load of hair.

But then there's the fact that, I still have a sh'load of hair.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 25, 2020, 06:56:22 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 25, 2020, 06:25:07 PM
You're nothing but a hooligan.

I've been pulled over 4 times in my life, two of them were within 2 years of my 16th birthday...

Pulled over for the first time 3 months after my 16th birthday. I cut through a parking lot to avoid a red light.  Had no idea that was against the law. A year later I got clocked doing 47 in a 35 on my way to my girlfriend’s house. I got started early.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 25, 2020, 07:06:26 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on April 25, 2020, 06:56:22 PM
Pulled over for the first time 3 months after my 16th birthday. I cut through a parking lot to avoid a red light.  Had no idea that was against the law. A year later I got clocked doing 47 in a 35 on my way to my girlfriend’s house. I got started early.
youre just a baby

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 25, 2020, 07:21:10 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 25, 2020, 04:50:49 PM
OAM have I done something to you

is there a reason why you need to attack me
There's more than one of them in there - a gaggle of sqwuaking twats 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 25, 2020, 07:31:18 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 25, 2020, 07:21:10 PM
There's more than one of them in there - a gaggle of sqwuaking twats
Im a Texan so Im used to people disagreeing with me 

I guess Im just a little stressed with all this virus crap going on

Im truely concerned for our country
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 25, 2020, 07:41:07 PM
Everybody is lh320, for sure.

We all have different views and different ideas on how to approach it-- as we should-- but I don't know anyone that's not distressed by it or concerned about it.  So, that's the place to start the discussions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 26, 2020, 10:57:38 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 25, 2020, 07:31:18 PM
Im a Texan so Im used to people disagreeing with me

unfortunately, there seems to be no amount of evidence that will cause Texans to understand that the entire lone star state is wrong more often than right

;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 26, 2020, 11:00:32 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 25, 2020, 04:45:38 PM
Some of us are more behind than others.
don't lob insults at the state of Texas
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 26, 2020, 11:00:46 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 26, 2020, 10:57:38 AM
unfortunately, there seems to be no amount of evidence that will cause Texans to understand that the entire lone star state is wrong more often than right

;)
maybe but we make being wrong look good
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 26, 2020, 11:02:46 AM
https://www.knowablemagazine.org/article/health-disease/2020/what-cytokine-storm?fbclid=IwAR1mCLn3nx8Dk4WQjbQIBbEdTbQ4JPs5qTOuc1ici3Wf-crwhSIJvkqxf9U (https://www.knowablemagazine.org/article/health-disease/2020/what-cytokine-storm?fbclid=IwAR1mCLn3nx8Dk4WQjbQIBbEdTbQ4JPs5qTOuc1ici3Wf-crwhSIJvkqxf9U)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 26, 2020, 11:04:23 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 25, 2020, 11:18:24 AM
If you're buckled in, you can survive far worse collisions than you could if you were not.

And you're also less of a threat to the other drivers on the road.
I agree with the first line

the 2nd line might be marginally correct, but I'm doubting 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 26, 2020, 11:06:17 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 25, 2020, 06:04:44 PM
cruise control is your friend
no doubt
I had been pulled over quite a few times before I turned 16

drove w/o a license for about 13 years, couldn't have managed that w/o the cruise set
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 26, 2020, 11:46:32 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 25, 2020, 04:27:28 PM
sometimes it does

gone are the day when a normal individual could work on his car under the shade of a tree

now days you need special diagnostic equipment and an advanced degree in auto mechanics

sometimes the faster we go the behinder we get
It's amazing what can be diagnosed and fixed with YouTube though. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 26, 2020, 12:22:06 PM
In fairness to 320's point, we do get the bad with the good.  The days of shade-tree mechanics fixing up their pollution-mobiles (in which the engines needed rebuilding as early as 50,000 miles) are long gone.

Same thing with the progress from a 1960 dial telephone owned by the phone company to today's latest infotainment/communication devices.  Anyone smart enough to plug a cord into a socket could take an old phone apart and see if there were any loose or broken wires or if the bell were corroded.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 26, 2020, 12:26:44 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 26, 2020, 11:46:32 AM
It's amazing what can be diagnosed and fixed with YouTube though.
I attempted that but found I had risen to my level of incompetency
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 26, 2020, 12:27:23 PM
the Peter Principal works
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 26, 2020, 12:31:17 PM
I understand that machine tolerances today are much much tighter than ca. 1965.  Most engines don't "need" a run in period (it's probably good to drive somewhat easy for 500 miles).  All those moving parts fit as intended instead of bouncing around.  Oil is a lot better.  Fuel is a lot cleaner.  Fuel injection was a major advance.

I don't even check under the hood of my GTI.  I used to spend a couple of hours a month doing something to keep my old Nova running right.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 26, 2020, 12:38:00 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 26, 2020, 11:06:17 AM

drove w/o a license for about 13 years, couldn't have managed that w/o the cruise set
Was that because of your color blindness (red & green lights) or just being a Yahoo?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 26, 2020, 12:39:50 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 26, 2020, 12:22:06 PM
In fairness to 320's point, we do get the bad with the good.  The days of shade-tree mechanics fixing up their pollution-mobiles (in which the engines needed rebuilding as early as 50,000 miles) are long gone.
Ya now they just screw you over to your face with all the tech that will malfunction and it's cost
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 26, 2020, 12:43:04 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 26, 2020, 11:00:32 AM
don't lob insults at the state of Texas
Nothin' but steers & queers,and Austin and Jerry Jones 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 26, 2020, 12:55:00 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 26, 2020, 12:38:00 PM
Was that because of your color blindness (red & green lights) or just being a Yahoo?
yahooooo
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 26, 2020, 01:58:15 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 26, 2020, 11:06:17 AM
no doubt
I had been pulled over quite a few times before I turned 16

drove w/o a license for about 13 years, couldn't have managed that w/o the cruise set
A. That driving sans licence sounds not ideal
B. I'm going to chose to read this as you drove without the licence up until you turned 16
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 26, 2020, 10:41:59 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 26, 2020, 01:58:15 PM
A. That driving sans licence sounds not ideal
B. I'm going to chose to read this as you drove without the licence up until you turned 16
I believe A is correct.  I do not believe that Fearless was driving at age 3.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on April 27, 2020, 02:26:49 AM
I have a very passionate former employee whose grandfather was an elected Republican official in our county I very much loved - he was the clerk of court - I am an attorney. Elizabeth is a Mayo Clinic nurse. She traveled to where there is the most needy, i.e. NYC. At night she gives a report. Here is a recent report. If it were not on Manhattan Island, it could be at the most recent outbreak in Waterloo, Iowa. https://www.facebook.com/elizabeth.schafer.31/videos/10100104476182516/ (https://www.facebook.com/elizabeth.schafer.31/videos/10100104476182516/?hc_location=ufi)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 27, 2020, 02:49:29 AM
Around 10 years ago, I found out my license was suspended.  I had been driving that way for 2 years...had no idea.  
I get a ticket about half the time, too.  They've never gotten me at anywhere near how fast I had been driving within 30 seconds of them pulling me over, though.  That's luck.
.
I also had an after-the-fact WHOA moment - driving down by Lake Okeechobee, got pulled over.  The chick I was with had a bunch of weed on her, but was asleep through the whole thing.  I had no idea.  That time actually caused me problems, though, as i lost the ticket and forgot about it (a week in the Keys with a lady will do that).  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2020, 05:59:32 AM
https://www.npr.org/2020/04/26/845211085/stockholm-expected-to-reach-herd-immunity-in-may-swedish-ambassador-says (https://www.npr.org/2020/04/26/845211085/stockholm-expected-to-reach-herd-immunity-in-may-swedish-ambassador-says)

The Swedish experiment won't work if we don't carry some reasonable amount of immunity over time with this thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 09:53:10 AM
Man, if infection and then recovery, does not confer some reasonable amount of immunity, then it's not just Sweden's plan that won't work.  Nobody's will. Because the lockdowns can't last forever.

If we can positively confirm that reinfection is possible, then it's time to completely reopen any place that's not a hotspot, any place that is not close to its iCU capacity, which is almost every place in the USA.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 27, 2020, 10:00:02 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/T1uiUoG.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 27, 2020, 10:13:20 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 27, 2020, 05:59:32 AM
https://www.npr.org/2020/04/26/845211085/stockholm-expected-to-reach-herd-immunity-in-may-swedish-ambassador-says (https://www.npr.org/2020/04/26/845211085/stockholm-expected-to-reach-herd-immunity-in-may-swedish-ambassador-says)

The Swedish experiment won't work if we don't carry some reasonable amount of immunity over time with this thing.
Quote from: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 09:53:10 AM
Man, if infection and then recovery, does not confer some reasonable amount of immunity, then it's not just Sweden's plan that won't work.  Nobody's will. Because the lockdowns can't last forever.

If we can positively confirm that reinfection is possible, then it's time to completely reopen any place that's not a hotspot, any place that is not close to its iCU capacity, which is almost every place in the USA.
I think the question is "over how much time?"

From what I've been reading, there is at the very least believed to be a short-term immunity conferred by most viruses, whether it's the common cold (perhaps a few weeks) or by influenza (perhaps a year or so). That immunity does wear off eventually. 

If the virus confers a few months up to a year or more of immunity, then the goal should be to reach herd immunity as fast as possible worldwide [without overwhelming ICU/vent capacity] in the hopes that the virus burns itself out. And then maybe not play with bats for a while so it doesn't come back. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 27, 2020, 10:18:01 AM
China needs to pay for this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 10:21:24 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 27, 2020, 10:13:20 AM
I think the question is "over how much time?"

From what I've been reading, there is at the very least believed to be a short-term immunity conferred by most viruses, whether it's the common cold (perhaps a few weeks) or by influenza (perhaps a year or so). That immunity does wear off eventually.

If the virus confers a few months up to a year or more of immunity, then the goal should be to reach herd immunity as fast as possible worldwide [without overwhelming ICU/vent capacity] in the hopes that the virus burns itself out. And then maybe not play with bats for a while so it doesn't come back.

I don't know man.  I do so love bat stew. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 10:23:23 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 27, 2020, 10:18:01 AM
China needs to pay for this.
Recently Germany has made some pretty firm statements regarding removing their ties and interests from China, first time I've really heard any European nation take such a strong stand, so that's a plus.  We'd go it alone if we had to, but it sounds like other countries are coming around to the same ideas...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 10:28:46 AM
And apparently China isn't happy with Australia, for joining in on the push for an inquest into the origins of the virus.  They're returning fire with a thinly veiled threat about boycotting Australia as a tourist destination for Chinese nationals.


https://www.ibtimes.com/china-envoy-threatens-australia-boycott-over-virus-inquest-demand-2965603 (https://www.ibtimes.com/china-envoy-threatens-australia-boycott-over-virus-inquest-demand-2965603)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 11:00:48 AM
A study is currently underway to see if this virus can be detected by dogs

Doga have been shown to detect certain types of cancer and some other diseases


if successful they could be available at airports, retirement homes and many other places

that would be really neat
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 27, 2020, 11:01:43 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 27, 2020, 10:18:01 AM
China needs to pay for this.
Hopefully they will by pulling contracts and US Mfg jobs
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 27, 2020, 11:03:35 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 11:00:48 AM
A study is currently underway to see if this virus can be detected by dogs
Problem is are the dogs susceptble.I don't care about PETA but I like Dogs
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 27, 2020, 11:04:50 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 10:28:46 AM
 They're returning fire with a thinly veiled threat about boycotting Australia as a tourist destination for Chinese nationals.
And that would upset the Aussies How?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 11:05:16 AM
I believe they'found it in both small domesticated cats, and large cats.  But I haven't heard of it being detected amongst dogs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 27, 2020, 11:06:28 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 26, 2020, 10:41:59 PM
I believe A is correct.  I do not believe that Fearless was driving at age 3.
He just drives like it,almost as bad as he golfs
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 11:07:48 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 27, 2020, 11:04:50 AM
And that would upset the Aussies How?
Heh, that was my thought as well.  I don't know of ANY country that's going to be particularly welcoming to Chinese tourists for the foreseeable future.

But I imagine that, due to relative proximity, Australia is a popular tourist destination for the Chinese, and so potentially it could have some pretty major economic downside for Australia if it ultimately played out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 11:09:39 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 27, 2020, 11:03:35 AM
Problem is are the dogs susceptble.I don't care about PETA but I like Dogs
masks for dogs?

Have not read or heard of a dog getting the virus
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2020, 11:13:32 AM
It will be interesting to see how countries actually do respond to China once this is "over" (abated) and whether "we" forget and move on because stuff is cheap and we need their money.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 27, 2020, 11:17:52 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 11:07:48 AM
But I imagine that, due to relative proximity, Australia is a popular tourist destination for the Chinese
Evidently they really liked Italy also.Glad N.E.Ohio's convention and visitor bureau swung and missed with them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2020, 11:18:15 AM
https://www.ajc.com/blog/atlanta-restaurants/these-metro-atlanta-restaurants-are-reopening-coronavirus-restrictions-are-lifted/rAAnzBFpm1EPhWFpMBWSSL/ (https://www.ajc.com/blog/atlanta-restaurants/these-metro-atlanta-restaurants-are-reopening-coronavirus-restrictions-are-lifted/rAAnzBFpm1EPhWFpMBWSSL/)

So far, not many restaurants are opening up for in store dining here.  Waffle House is, which is not a place the wife likes for some obscure reason.

Something about "Greece"?  I don't always understand what she says.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 11:19:31 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 27, 2020, 11:13:32 AM
It will be interesting to see how countries actually do respond to China once this is "over" (abated) and whether "we" forget and move on because stuff is cheap and we need their money.


Yep if we leave it up to the United Nations they will get a pass

If nothing else I hope we move the production of medical supplies and medicine to the US

We should never again be dependent on another nation to just stay alive
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 11:20:32 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 27, 2020, 11:17:52 AM
Evidently they really liked Italy also.Glad N.E.Ohio's convention and visitor bureau swung and missed with them
The ties between Northern Italy and China were primarily business/worker related, not so much tourist related.  Textile industry had something like 300,000 Chinese national workers in the region.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 27, 2020, 11:22:01 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 27, 2020, 11:13:32 AM
It will be interesting to see how countries actually do respond to China once this is "over" (abated) and whether "we" forget and move on because stuff is cheap and we need their money.
Doubt our parents/grandparents forgot October 1929 Hopefully we can look back on all of this and decide
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 11:23:12 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 27, 2020, 11:18:15 AM
https://www.ajc.com/blog/atlanta-restaurants/these-metro-atlanta-restaurants-are-reopening-coronavirus-restrictions-are-lifted/rAAnzBFpm1EPhWFpMBWSSL/ (https://www.ajc.com/blog/atlanta-restaurants/these-metro-atlanta-restaurants-are-reopening-coronavirus-restrictions-are-lifted/rAAnzBFpm1EPhWFpMBWSSL/)

So far, not many restaurants are opening up for in store dining here.  Waffle House is, which is not a place the wife likes for some obscure reason.

Something about "Greece"?  I don't always understand what she says.


Greece is the word, is the word, that you heard
It's got groove it's got meaning

Greece is the time, is the place, is the motion
Greece is the way we are feeling
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 27, 2020, 11:24:36 AM
Keep Austin weird is a thing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2020, 11:30:34 AM
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2759815 (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2759815)

From Jan. 23.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2020, 11:31:06 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 27, 2020, 11:22:01 AM
Doubt our parents/grandparents forgot October 1929 Hopefully we can look back on all of this and decide
They didn't, but IF this is a V-depression, I think folks will forget in time.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 27, 2020, 11:57:48 AM
Maybe I've missed it being posted.

Regardless (or even irregardless), here is a story of the role that blood clotting is playing in the morbidity of COVID-19.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200424/blood-clots-are-another-dangerous-covid-19-mystery?ecd=wnl_spr_042620 (https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200424/blood-clots-are-another-dangerous-covid-19-mystery?ecd=wnl_spr_042620)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 27, 2020, 12:01:22 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 26, 2020, 01:58:15 PM
A. That driving sans licence sounds not ideal
B. I'm going to chose to read this as you drove without the licence up until you turned 16
I was driving pickups on gravel roads before I was 14.  Driving everything with learner's permit at 14.  Riding mini bikes and motorcycles around the small town at 11 or 12.

1st offense drunk driving - 6 months w/o license

2nd offense - 1 year

my 3rd offense drunk driving conviction - 6 years
5 1/2 years later driving on suspended license brought an additional 6 years

not ideal when you live in rural area - no ubers back then
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 12:31:32 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 27, 2020, 11:18:15 AM
https://www.ajc.com/blog/atlanta-restaurants/these-metro-atlanta-restaurants-are-reopening-coronavirus-restrictions-are-lifted/rAAnzBFpm1EPhWFpMBWSSL/ (https://www.ajc.com/blog/atlanta-restaurants/these-metro-atlanta-restaurants-are-reopening-coronavirus-restrictions-are-lifted/rAAnzBFpm1EPhWFpMBWSSL/)

So far, not many restaurants are opening up for in store dining here.  Waffle House is, which is not a place the wife likes for some obscure reason.

Something about "Greece"?  I don't always understand what she says.


Georgia's stats remain pretty good
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 12:39:14 PM
we need to solve this problem quick

Trump needs to jump all over this

https://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/food-supply-chain-breaking-tyson-foods-chairman-claims-plant-coronavirus-closures (https://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/food-supply-chain-breaking-tyson-foods-chairman-claims-plant-coronavirus-closures)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 27, 2020, 12:46:40 PM
maybe folks will start hoarding pork chops and leave some toilet paper for me?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 12:49:47 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 27, 2020, 12:46:40 PM
maybe folks will start hoarding pork chops and leave some toilet paper for me?
order TP from amazon 

does amazon deliver in Iowa
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 27, 2020, 01:02:06 PM
Amazon delivers here

the Iowa Governor opened up some things this morning

gyms and fitness places - restaurants

but, not the hair shop / barber

and the counties that have meatpacking plants are still on lockdown

that happens to be my county
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 01:04:33 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 27, 2020, 01:02:06 PM
Amazon delivers here

the Iowa Governor opened up some things this morning

gyms and fitness places - restaurants

but, not the hair shop / barber

and the counties that have meatpacking plants are still on lockdown

that happens to be my county
I dont care if we have to use the National Guard in hazmat suits we need to get those plants operating
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 27, 2020, 01:08:38 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 27, 2020, 11:03:35 AM
Problem is are the dogs susceptble.I don't care about PETA but I like Dogs
Hey now! I'm a PETA member. (People Eating Tasty Animals). :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 27, 2020, 01:10:20 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 27, 2020, 11:18:15 AM
https://www.ajc.com/blog/atlanta-restaurants/these-metro-atlanta-restaurants-are-reopening-coronavirus-restrictions-are-lifted/rAAnzBFpm1EPhWFpMBWSSL/ (https://www.ajc.com/blog/atlanta-restaurants/these-metro-atlanta-restaurants-are-reopening-coronavirus-restrictions-are-lifted/rAAnzBFpm1EPhWFpMBWSSL/)

So far, not many restaurants are opening up for in store dining here.  Waffle House is, which is not a place the wife likes for some obscure reason.

Something about "Greece"?  I don't always understand what she says.


From what I hear from the younger crowd, Waffle House is where the drunks go after the bars close. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 01:14:24 PM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 27, 2020, 01:10:20 PM
From what I hear from the younger crowd, Waffle House is where the drunks go after the bars close.
thats why we used to call it The Wabble House
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 27, 2020, 01:22:02 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 01:14:24 PM
thats why we used to call it The Wabble House
The closest Waffle House from my home is about 70 miles south. They are not big (or even exist) in much of Northern Ohio. However, when my son and daughter in law lived in Biloxi MS while stationed at Keesler AFB, they used Waffle House's in their directions. It went something like "Go south until the interstate dead ends into the water front road. Head west passing 3 Waffle House's and turn in the first drive past the 3rd Waffle House."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 01:32:30 PM
Yeah Waffle House is like the Denny's of the Confederate states.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 27, 2020, 02:09:50 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 01:04:33 PM
I dont care if we have to use the National Guard in hazmat suits we need to get those plants operating
Is the beef plant in Amarillo having COVID issues?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 02:28:30 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 27, 2020, 02:09:50 PM
Is the beef plant in Amarillo having COVID issues?
theres a beef plant in Amarillo?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 27, 2020, 02:33:26 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 12:39:14 PM
we need to solve this problem quick

Trump needs to jump all over this

https://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/food-supply-chain-breaking-tyson-foods-chairman-claims-plant-coronavirus-closures (https://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/food-supply-chain-breaking-tyson-foods-chairman-claims-plant-coronavirus-closures)
I'm just confused...

These are the businesses that are remaining open because they're [rightly] considered "essential infrastructure".

And they're closing because of outbreaks and deaths amongst their workers.

And this is an argument to re-open the rest of the economy? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2020, 02:34:38 PM
I recall going to Waffle House in college around 2 AM pretty often when studying.  A semi-GF worked there night shift.  You'd see some people in coats and ties and drunk students and studying students and just plain drunks.  Their HQ is near where I grew up.  There is a Waffle House Index.

The Waffle House Index is an informal metric (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Performance_indicator) named after the Waffle House (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waffle_House) restaurant chain and is used by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Emergency_Management_Agency) (FEMA) to determine the effect of a storm and the likely scale of assistance required for disaster recovery.[1] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waffle_House_Index#cite_note-1)

The index has three levels, based on the extent of operations and service at the restaurant following a storm:[2] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waffle_House_Index#cite_note-WSJ-2)[3] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waffle_House_Index#cite_note-NPR-3)

Overall, in 2020, Waffle Houses closed at this rate:




Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 02:43:15 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 27, 2020, 02:33:26 PM
I'm just confused...

These are the businesses that are remaining open because they're [rightly] considered "essential infrastructure".

And they're closing because of outbreaks and deaths amongst their workers.

And this is an argument to re-open the rest of the economy?
So youre not in favor of reopening where possible?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 02:47:13 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 27, 2020, 02:33:26 PM
I'm just confused...

These are the businesses that are remaining open because they're [rightly] considered "essential infrastructure".

And they're closing because of outbreaks and deaths amongst their workers.

And this is an argument to re-open the rest of the economy?
I didn't read anything about deaths.  It didn't even really say anything about people feeling sick.  We already know that 50% or more of people that test positive have no symptoms at all.  

I point this out, because a neighbor who works as the business manager for a machine shop, was forced to close down his entire shop, when one of the workers tested positive.  That worker had mild symptoms, got tested, and tested positive.  So the corporate office shut down the entire shop, and had several other employees tested, and those results are still pending.  IF they come back negative, they might be allowed to reopen.  If they come back positive, then the shop will remain closed for several more weeks, even though only one person ever felt any symptoms at all, and is now recovering and feeling fine.

Point being, this is something we're doing to ourselves, by choice.  At the micro level, we're shutting down entire shops of people that feel fine, because one person felt sick. Thousands of man-hours of lost productivity, because this one guy had a fairly mild case, and is already feeling better. 

At the macro level, we're shutting down entire industries, with billions of man-hours of lost productivity.  And we're doing this by our own choices.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2020, 02:51:14 PM
We walked 3+ miles and got Asian take out again that we ate in the park.  The weather today is flat perfect, it could not be better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 27, 2020, 02:52:09 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 02:43:15 PM
So youre not in favor of reopening where possible?
I'm in favor of reopening where/when possible, in a smart and controlled way. The big concern, that we would completely overwhelm the health care system, appears to suggest that controlled reopening and watching the numbers might be possible as we're not overwhelming the health care system.

I'm just saying that a lot of the meat processing plants aren't closed because of government "stay at home" orders--they closed because remaining open resulted in outbreaks and had to shut down because of outbreaks. Clearly being open was the problem, not the solution.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2020, 02:53:22 PM
The lag time between cause and effect is a problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 27, 2020, 02:59:45 PM
My tip of the day:

Buy your fishing pole before the hoarders show up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 27, 2020, 03:04:45 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 02:47:13 PM
I didn't read anything about deaths.  It didn't even really say anything about people feeling sick.  We already know that 50% or more of people that test positive have no symptoms at all. 
The Fox News article said that 4 Tyson employees have died of Coronavirus. It didn't offer more specifics.

Within the article it was linked to another Fox article discussing the Waterloo, Iowa closure, which appeared to be a voluntary action by Tyson. I don't know actual case rates. However the county says 90% of new cases in the county are tied to that plant (https://www.kcrg.com/content/news/Black-Hawk-County-reports-nearly-300-new-coronavirus-cases-in-three-day-span-569910181.html). 

And the Smithfield plant in Sioux Falls apparently had hundreds of confirmed cases.

These are essential businesses... However it appears that by remaining open, hot spots are being created around them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 03:06:22 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 27, 2020, 02:52:09 PM
I'm in favor of reopening where/when possible, in a smart and controlled way. The big concern, that we would completely overwhelm the health care system, appears to suggest that controlled reopening and watching the numbers might be possible as we're not overwhelming the health care system.

I'm just saying that a lot of the meat processing plants aren't closed because of government "stay at home" orders--they closed because remaining open resulted in outbreaks and had to shut down because of outbreaks. Clearly being open was the problem, not the solution.
I dont know if your are right or wrong it doesnt matter cause these places cant close down if we expect to survive 

They need to remain open no matter what

theres a solution somewhere and we need to find it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 03:09:21 PM
Yes, I'd read about the voluntary closures, which also tied to my neighbor's experience at his shop.  

I think we're all going to have to come to the understanding that a "hot spot" of cases doesn't necessarily mean a hot spot for severe symptoms or death.

This isn't going away, we're going to have to learn to live with it among us, and so we're going to need to find mechanisms for managing it in our daily lives.  I don't think that going forward, that answer is going to be able to be, "shut everything down" when we encounter cases of this disease.  That's just not going to be a realistic or sustainable option.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 27, 2020, 03:16:00 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 02:28:30 PM
theres a beef plant in Amarillo?
big one, it's been there since at least 1985

I worked on a few projects there
got to eat at the Big Texan!  

huge coyotes there - I asked the driver that picked me up at the airport about the coyotes - he said, you should see the size of the rats around the plant!

the engineer I was on the first trip there told me the great thing about Amarillo was that there was a pretty girl behind every tree
no trees
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 27, 2020, 03:17:39 PM
my understanding is that the Governor isn't shutting down meatpacking plants

the plants are shutting down because too many workers are too sick to work or too afraid of getting sick to report to work
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 03:23:21 PM
I've never been inside a plant like that, but I'm assuming they don't have much distance between workers?  And that it would be difficult to space them out more?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 03:24:18 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 27, 2020, 03:17:39 PM
my understanding is that the Governor isn't shutting down meatpacking plants

the plants are shutting down because too many workers are too sick to work or too afraid of getting sick to report to work
Potter county where Amarillo is located has had 333 cases and 6 deaths so I dont think they will close unless it gets a lot worse
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 27, 2020, 03:47:52 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 03:23:21 PM
I've never been inside a plant like that, but I'm assuming they don't have much distance between workers?  And that it would be difficult to space them out more?


they could go to every other station, but that would cut production in half
I'd guess the issue is more with lockerooms, cafeterias, rest rooms, and other common areas than the work stations, but I don't know this
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 27, 2020, 03:48:31 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 03:24:18 PM
Potter county where Amarillo is located has had 333 cases and 6 deaths so I dont think they will close unless it gets a lot worse
would 333 cases be a higher than normal rate for rural Texas?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 27, 2020, 03:49:02 PM
We rate the claim that hospitals get paid more if patients are listed as COVID-19 and on ventilators as TRUE.

Hospitals and doctors do get paid more for Medicare patients diagnosed with COVID-19 or if it's considered presumed they have COVID-19 absent a laboratory-confirmed test, and three times more if the patients are placed on a ventilator to cover the cost of care and loss of business resulting from a shift in focus to treat COVID-19 cases.

This higher allocation of funds has been made possible under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act through a Medicare 20% add-on to its regular payment for COVID-19 patients, as verified by USA TODAY through the American Hospital Association Special Bulletin on the topic.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/24/fact-check-medicare-hospitals-paid-more-covid-19-patients-coronavirus/3000638001/?fbclid=IwAR2aDjDr-httA8Spmz2IyqCtH4MlIjaHcReps5Q8MxoLpMJvk8p3Zy_IDUM (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/24/fact-check-medicare-hospitals-paid-more-covid-19-patients-coronavirus/3000638001/?fbclid=IwAR2aDjDr-httA8Spmz2IyqCtH4MlIjaHcReps5Q8MxoLpMJvk8p3Zy_IDUM)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 27, 2020, 03:54:50 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 03:09:21 PM
Yes, I'd read about the voluntary closures, which also tied to my neighbor's experience at his shop. 

I think we're all going to have to come to the understanding that a "hot spot" of cases doesn't necessarily mean a hot spot for severe symptoms or death.

This isn't going away, we're going to have to learn to live with it among us, and so we're going to need to find mechanisms for managing it in our daily lives.  I don't think that going forward, that answer is going to be able to be, "shut everything down" when we encounter cases of this disease.  That's just not going to be a realistic or sustainable option.


It can absolutely be an option, but America wouldn't have the stomach for it.  A real shutdown would last 3 weeks give or take.  That's when streets are closed and there is absolutely no leaving your house or you'll be arrested for it.  China implemented it in a very brutal way, that would certainly never fly here.

South Korea's "real shutdown" would be a tough sell, and that was a cakewalk compared to China.  They had a FEMA equivalent who you could call for deliveries of food, water, and emergencies, and they had prepped hundreds of thousands of tests ahead of time.  They implemented mass testing and their outbreak was over in the blink of an eye.

Personally, I don't think things are going to get better until we implement mass testing, at a bare minimum.  We have been topped out at 150,000 tests per day for around 30 days now.  That's absolutely ridiculous.  The richest country on earth, and we can't afford to make and process more tests?  Blows the mind.

From a data standpoint, testing in the USA has been about 20% positive.  We have maxxed out at 150,000 tests.  That's about 30,000 positive cases per day that we can add just mathematically.  Guess how many cases we've been adding per day for the last month or so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 03:56:08 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 27, 2020, 03:47:52 PM
they could go to every other station, but that would cut production in half
I'd guess the issue is more with lockerooms, cafeterias, rest rooms, and other common areas than the work stations, but I don't know this
All company cafeterias and common rooms should be closed down already, that's the first thing that happened in most office or commercial buildings.

Locker rooms could be a problem, you'd need to regulate the flow and limit entry/egress.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 04:00:37 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 27, 2020, 03:48:31 PM
would 333 cases be a higher than normal rate for rural Texas?
333 is about .3 percent of the county population so its not alarmingly high
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 04:02:42 PM
My son who is working from home was told today that his office will reopen 2 weeks from today

here in Houston masks and all
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 04:08:41 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 04:02:42 PM
My son who is working from home was told today that his office will reopen 2 weeks from today

here in Houston masks and all

Governor just said phase 1 of reopening begins Friday.  Phase 2 will be on 5/18 if data remains steady.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 04:15:07 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 27, 2020, 03:54:50 PM
It can absolutely be an option, but America wouldn't have the stomach for it.  A real shutdown would last 3 weeks give or take.  That's when streets are closed and there is absolutely no leaving your house or you'll be arrested for it.  China implemented it in a very brutal way, that would certainly never fly here.

South Korea's "real shutdown" would be a tough sell, and that was a cakewalk compared to China.  They had a FEMA equivalent who you could call for deliveries of food, water, and emergencies, and they had prepped hundreds of thousands of tests ahead of time.  They implemented mass testing and their outbreak was over in the blink of an eye.

Personally, I don't think things are going to get better until we implement mass testing, at a bare minimum.  We have been topped out at 150,000 tests per day for around 30 days now.  That's absolutely ridiculous.  The richest country on earth, and we can't afford to make and process more tests?  Blows the mind.

From a data standpoint, testing in the USA has been about 20% positive.  We have maxxed out at 150,000 tests.  That's about 30,000 positive cases per day that we can add just mathematically.  Guess how many cases we've been adding per day for the last month or so.
all the testing in the world wont get the job done cause its a point in time measurement 

we need antibody testing and a lot of it

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 27, 2020, 04:25:53 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 03:56:08 PM
All company cafeterias and common rooms should be closed down already, that's the first thing that happened in most office or commercial buildings.

Locker rooms could be a problem, you'd need to regulate the flow and limit entry/egress.


4300 workers in the Dakota City, NE facility


2 shifts for production - 3rd shift overnight for cleaning and maintenance
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 27, 2020, 04:27:05 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 04:15:07 PM
all the testing in the world wont get the job done cause its a point in time measurement

we need antibody testing and a lot of it


We need it all of it, really.

In South Korea (and other places) they have set up drive thru testing areas.  You get tested in your car and your test result will be texted to your phone in the next 6 hours.

40+ days of quarantine and the wait in PA for results in still 7-10 business days.  Madness.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 27, 2020, 04:28:17 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 04:02:42 PM
My son who is working from home was told today that his office will reopen 2 weeks from today

here in Houston masks and all
My company is already working on "return to site" rules and plans... Nothing concrete yet on dates. But they're going to be taking temps, ensuring adequate spacing of work environment, etc. 

Granted, we're considered essential infrastructure so we've had some employees who never left work sites--anyone involved in production, lab testing, or any other function that couldn't reasonably be done from home was still coming in and practicing distancing.

I expect they'll phase it in slowly, focusing on the roles which are "hard" but not impossible to do from home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 27, 2020, 04:29:07 PM
Passed a million cases today nationally...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 04:37:48 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 27, 2020, 04:25:53 PM
4300 workers in the Dakota City, NE facility


2 shifts for production - 3rd shift overnight for cleaning and maintenance
Dakota county NE has a pop of 20,000 and had 470 cases and 1 death

not sure the plant should close over these stats

maybe closing for a few days and doing a deep cleaning but not closing longer then that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 27, 2020, 04:38:23 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 27, 2020, 03:47:52 PM
they could go to every other station, but that would cut production in half
I'd guess the issue is more with lockerooms, cafeterias, rest rooms, and other common areas than the work stations, but I don't know this
Yeah, I don't think many people are considering the normal physical bottlenecks our infrastructure has.  Wanting to open this and that with social distancing is great....but it's most often structurally impossible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 27, 2020, 04:39:32 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 04:37:48 PM
Dakota county NE has a pop of 20,000 and had 470 cases and 1 death

not sure the plant should close over these stats

maybe closing for a few days and doing a deep cleaning but not closing longer then that
I know you're not a fan of sickness and death, but you've got a lot of posts now seeming okay with it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 04:40:56 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 27, 2020, 04:38:23 PM
Yeah, I don't think many people are considering the normal physical bottlenecks our infrastructure has.  Wanting to open this and that with social distancing is great....but it's most often structurally impossible.
Quite the contrary, I think a LOT of people are considering it.  And then trying to come up with solutions to address it. 

Especially in cases like this, where our nation's food supply is at risk.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 27, 2020, 04:42:40 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 27, 2020, 04:29:07 PM
Passed a million cases today nationally...
I'm a data guy...I can't help myself.

We will probably pass 60,000 deaths in the next 24-48 hours.  That shows a death rate of about 6%.  However, we know that there is a severe test shortage, and initial results from Iceland, USC, NY, and South Korea show a much lower death rate than that.  This probably means there have been over 3M people infected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 27, 2020, 04:46:28 PM
I think a big mismanagement for Trump (wait, wait, here me out - not attacking him) and his coming out of this looking okay was the initial lack of massing testing.  The earlier we tested as many people as possible, the earlier the lower death rate would have been widely known.  

To be fair, this assumes his greatest concern is how good he looks for November.

I think he was shortsighted and wanting to keep reported cases low by not testing, which is fine on the surface.  But the more 3-dimensional idea would be to get that important death rate % low.  He didn't want to know it.  He wasn't interested in knowing more.  

Is that fair?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 27, 2020, 05:00:15 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 27, 2020, 04:46:28 PM
I think a big mismanagement for Trump (wait, wait, here me out - not attacking him) and his coming out of this looking okay was the initial lack of massing testing.  The earlier we tested as many people as possible, the earlier the lower death rate would have been widely known. 

To be fair, this assumes his greatest concern is how good he looks for November.

I think he was shortsighted and wanting to keep reported cases low by not testing, which is fine on the surface.  But the more 3-dimensional idea would be to get that important death rate % low.  He didn't want to know it.  He wasn't interested in knowing more. 

Is that fair?
Ummm...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 27, 2020, 05:00:54 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 27, 2020, 04:42:40 PM
I'm a data guy...I can't help myself.

We will probably pass 60,000 deaths in the next 24-48 hours.  That shows a death rate of about 6%.  However, we know that there is a severe test shortage, and initial results from Iceland, USC, NY, and South Korea show a much lower death rate than that.  This probably means there have been over 3M people infected.
I'm a data guy too... While this is a morbid subject, from a data science perspective it has been fascinating.

Obviously the death rate based on confirmed cases is nowhere near the true mortality. We've known from the start (and people haven't hidden the fact) that due to mild/asymptomatic cases, none of the "ultra scary" numbers the media threw out made sense. 

Right now the few US antibody tests show a pretty wide array of results, and what that means for the true mortality rate is interesting.

CA shows somewhere in the realm of 40x unconfirmed to confirmed case ratio. If you applied that to the 6% death rate, you'd end up somewhere in the 0.15% true mortality. If you compare it to California's death rate (3.9%), it would bring you under 0.1% true mortality. If that rate is accurate, then we should let 'er rip and open the country up. 

NY showed differently. Antibody testing only suggested a 10x ratio of unconfirmed to confirmed cases. That extrapolated out to somewhere in the range of 0.5-0.78% true mortality (depending on whether you include the "probable" cases from NYC). If that rate is accurate, then given how transmissible this appears to be, a let 'er rip response would be several hundred thousand more deaths, possibly in the 1M range depending on the total number of Americans who ended up contracting it. 

South Korea was WAY out in front of this thing and has tested, and tested, and tested. With over 600K tests administered, they've only found 10,738 cases, and had 243 deaths. That's a 2.3% mortality rate, which is a lot higher than most predict is the true mortality rate. So it's expected that they have a much lower ratio of unconfirmed to confirmed cases based on their test rates, but without antibody testing we won't know who was missed. But if the true mortality rate was merely half of that, it would be devastating. 

I wish we had better data all around, because we're making HUGE decisions about our economies and there are boatloads of unknowns.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 05:03:07 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 27, 2020, 05:00:54 PM
I'm a data guy too... While this is a morbid subject, from a data science perspective it has been fascinating.

Obviously the death rate based on confirmed cases is nowhere near the true mortality. We've known from the start (and people haven't hidden the fact) that due to mild/asymptomatic cases, none of the "ultra scary" numbers the media threw out made sense.

Right now the few US antibody tests show a pretty wide array of results, and what that means for the true mortality rate is interesting.

CA shows somewhere in the realm of 40x unconfirmed to confirmed case ratio. If you applied that to the 6% death rate, you'd end up somewhere in the 0.15% true mortality. If you compare it to California's death rate (3.9%), it would bring you under 0.1% true mortality. If that rate is accurate, then we should let 'er rip and open the country up.

NY showed differently. Antibody testing only suggested a 10x ratio of unconfirmed to confirmed cases. That extrapolated out to somewhere in the range of 0.5-0.78% true mortality (depending on whether you include the "probable" cases from NYC). If that rate is accurate, then given how transmissible this appears to be, a let 'er rip response would be several hundred thousand more deaths, possibly in the 1M range depending on the total number of Americans who ended up contracting it.

South Korea was WAY out in front of this thing and has tested, and tested, and tested. With over 600K tests administered, they've only found 10,738 cases, and had 243 deaths. That's a 2.3% mortality rate, which is a lot higher than most predict is the true mortality rate. So it's expected that they have a much lower ratio of unconfirmed to confirmed cases based on their test rates, but without antibody testing we won't know who was missed. But if the true mortality rate was merely half of that, it would be devastating.

I wish we had better data all around, because we're making HUGE decisions about our economies and there are boatloads of unknowns.
did you see the latest antibody testing results from NY
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2020, 05:19:24 PM
Are any of these numbers reliable?  I don't mean exact, I mean anywhere close to accurate?

Deaths?  I thought that would be reliable, but then I'm not sure how many died of the virus undiagnosed, and how many died of something else in reality but perhaps had symptoms.

Confirmed illness?  Confirmed how?  Tested positive?  Or they had symptoms?  Is the test accurate?  False pos/negs?

The country is past 56,527 now and running at 1,100 per day for the past couple of days, using their figures, with a million "confirmed", a mortality rate of 5.6%???

The "model" says 67,000 by June 1.  That means the death rate per day should start dropping a lot and soon.  And yes it has dropped apparently from over 2,000.  I won't really be convinced we're easing until it drops below 500 reported, as I am taking these figures with a large grain.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 27, 2020, 05:23:47 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 05:03:07 PM
did you see the latest antibody testing results from NY
I had not... I found this though from earlier today... https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/cuomo-outlines-reopening-roadmap-for-new-york-as-daily-deaths-hit-lowest-level-in-weeks/2390949/ (https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/cuomo-outlines-reopening-roadmap-for-new-york-as-daily-deaths-hit-lowest-level-in-weeks/2390949/)

Suggests that up to 2.9M New York State residents have contracted the virus.

Right now according to Worldometers, NY has 297,224 cases and 22,612 deaths.

22,612 / 297,224 = 7.6% mortality based on confirmed cases.
22,612 / 2,900,000 = 0.77% mortality rate based on this antibody testing.

Note that the flu is somewhere in the 0.1% mortality range, so this would be 7-8x more fatal than the flu.

Edit: I should point out that they believe somewhere near 25% of NYC residents are showing antibodies. That's not likely to "herd immunity" yet, but it's WAY higher than nearly anywhere else. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 27, 2020, 05:32:50 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 27, 2020, 05:19:24 PM
Are any of these numbers reliable?  I don't mean exact, I mean anywhere close to accurate?

Deaths?  I thought that would be reliable, but then I'm not sure how many died of the virus undiagnosed, and how many died of something else in reality but perhaps had symptoms.

Confirmed illness?  Confirmed how?  Tested positive?  Or they had symptoms?  Is the test accurate?  False pos/negs?


At some point you have to decide whether you're going to have a rough trust in the numbers or not. 

I'm assuming that our health care workers, our nation's coroners, and the people surrounding them, are trying their best to make the best judgement they can on how to count these things. 

Does that mean you need some error bars on all these numbers? Sure. But I don't think the difference is anywhere more than +/- 10%, and probably MUCH less than that because you'd expect some positive errors in some locales to be balanced by negative errors on others.


Quote
The country is past 56,527 now and running at 1,100 per day for the past couple of days, using their figures, with a million "confirmed", a mortality rate of 5.6%???
There's been a pattern to the data on death rates. Sunday (and frequently Monday) have been low, followed by Tuesday being high. We saw big peaks in confirmed cases on Fri/Sat, which makes me think tomorrows numbers for death rates will jump too. 


Quote
The "model" says 67,000 by June 1.  That means the death rate per day should start dropping a lot and soon.  And yes it has dropped apparently from over 2,000.  I won't really be convinced we're easing until it drops below 500 reported, as I am taking these figures with a large grain.
I don't like the IHME model. It's bounced all over the place. It went from 80K to 93K back to 80K to 60K to now 67K, but there's no way we won't blow past the 67K within a week or so. And with various parts of the country reopening already, we could start seeing some spikes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2020, 05:46:27 PM
If Georgia is reopening too early, the spikes would not happen for 2-3 weeks, minimum, probably longer.  And in reality nearly everything here is still shut down.

And if a spike happens, it won't really nudge the national number that much for obvious reasons, 3% of the population etc.

I suspect too much will be read into the GA experiment either way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 06:09:51 PM
Texas also begins a slow reopening, starting on Friday.  Restaurants will be allowed to open at 25% occupancy capacity.  Retailers, too.  

No haircuts yet, though.  So my shaggy mane continued unchecked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 06:15:48 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 27, 2020, 05:46:27 PM
If Georgia is reopening too early, the spikes would not happen for 2-3 weeks, minimum, probably longer.  And in reality nearly everything here is still shut down.

And if a spike happens, it won't really nudge the national number that much for obvious reasons, 3% of the population etc.

I suspect too much will be read into the GA experiment either way.
Georgia aint hanging out there by itself

Both Texas and Oklahoma is right there with them so there will be plenty to blame if we are jumping the gun

The key is reopening in a smart way and closely monitor for any hot spots 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 06:17:01 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 06:09:51 PM
Texas also begins a slow reopening, starting on Friday.  Restaurants will be allowed to open at 25% occupancy capacity.  Retailers, too. 

No haircuts yet, though.  So my shaggy mane continued unchecked.
yep no bars salons or gyms yet
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2020, 06:18:34 PM
We allowed 18 year olds to vote in 1943.  We're a leader and all that, a very progressive state.  We almost elected a black female as governor.

Could anyone have imagined that in 1960?  nope.

BTW, giin and tonic is tasty.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 06:20:13 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 27, 2020, 06:18:34 PM
We allowed 18 year olds to vote in 1943.  We're a leader and all that, a very progressive state.  We almost elected a black female as governor.

Could anyone have imagined that in 1960?  nope.

BTW, giin and tonic is tasty.

Im down with the gin but not so much with the tonic

Im a scotch man when not drinking beer

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 27, 2020, 06:53:23 PM
We are leaving for Florida on Thursday. The plan includes driving straight through Georgia. Stop to pee and that's it. I feel like they are going at it too early.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 27, 2020, 06:58:16 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 06:09:51 PM
No haircuts yet, though.  So my shaggy mane continued unchecked.
I'm getting close to needing my second haircut from my wife... By this coming weekend it'll be necessary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 27, 2020, 07:01:00 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 27, 2020, 06:53:23 PM
We are leaving for Florida on Thursday. The plan includes driving straight through Georgia. Stop to pee and that's it. I feel like they are going at it too early.
You're going to make it to Georgia before taking a leak?I call false - how you going to finish that floor?Throw down CD's acid and come back in a couple of weeks?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 27, 2020, 07:10:07 PM
Beer name ideas for a pandemic?

So far I've brewed a blonde ale and a pale ale... Thinking of...

"Blonde, Until The Roots Show Ale"
"Pale, Because I'm Not Allowed Outside Ale"

Thoughts? Better ideas?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 27, 2020, 07:11:46 PM
I.C.U.-IPA

Brew BATtered
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 27, 2020, 07:15:14 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 27, 2020, 07:11:46 PM
I.C.U.-IPA

Brew BATtered
Next beer will be an IPA... So taking suggestings for that one... 

I could go with "IPA Sounds Healthier Than ICU" or something like that...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 27, 2020, 07:16:07 PM
Wuhan Wheat Ale
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 27, 2020, 07:17:17 PM
How about Corona?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 07:18:07 PM
Not your dad's Corona Pale Ale?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 07:24:29 PM
Ha, don't think bwar mentioned brewing a rye... 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 27, 2020, 07:26:26 PM
Took it it down maybe a little crass
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 27, 2020, 07:27:33 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 07:24:29 PM
Ha, don't think bwar mentioned brewing a rye...


Actually the pale ale is 25% rye malt... It is a rye pale ale.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 27, 2020, 07:28:28 PM
Previous name for that recipe was "Rye Not Have Another?"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 07:31:49 PM
Well you shoulda mentioned that sooner! :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 27, 2020, 07:47:16 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 27, 2020, 07:01:00 PM
You're going to make it to Georgia before taking a leak?I call false - how you going to finish that floor?Throw down CD's acid and come back in a couple of weeks?
The point is we don't want to stop anywhere in Georgia. The plan is to try and make it to Chattanooga on the first day. If not, it's 2.5 days rather than 2 really long ones. I'll see how I feel once we get to Clarksville, or so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 27, 2020, 07:51:21 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 27, 2020, 07:47:16 PM
The point is we don't want to stop anywhere in Georgia. The plan is to try and make it to Chattanooga on the first day. If not, it's 2.5 days rather than 2 really long ones. I'll see how I feel once we get to Clarksville, or so.
You gonna stop and say hi to Burny whilst in Tennessee?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 27, 2020, 07:55:27 PM
We're not stopping to say hi to anyone, sadly. Not even CDawg in ATL. We just want to get to our home as soon as possible. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 27, 2020, 10:16:38 PM
I thought you purchased from burnt Eyes store?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 27, 2020, 11:03:19 PM
Store?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 27, 2020, 11:19:50 PM
Burnt Store Marina?

Burnt Eyes Store Marina?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 28, 2020, 12:28:14 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 27, 2020, 06:53:23 PM
We are leaving for Florida on Thursday. The plan includes driving straight through Georgia. Stop to pee and that's it. I feel like they are going at it too early.
Just don't hit Atlanta at rush hour.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 28, 2020, 01:15:51 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 27, 2020, 07:55:27 PM
We're not stopping to say hi to anyone, sadly. Not even CDawg in ATL. We just want to get to our home as soon as possible.
Safe travels,are you done in Ill-annoy?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 28, 2020, 06:26:43 AM
Not done in Illinois until 09/30. So, I won't turn off the lights when I leave in two days, but I certainly will on 10/01.

The House Speaker thinks people who are leaving Illinois in droves are just socially distancing.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 28, 2020, 07:57:17 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 28, 2020, 12:28:14 AM
Just don't hit Atlanta at rush hour.
There is no rush hour any more.  In reality, not much has changed around here (yet) after the quasi-reopening.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 28, 2020, 08:25:20 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 27, 2020, 06:58:16 PM
I'm getting close to needing my second haircut from my wife... By this coming weekend it'll be necessary.
My wife tried to cut our son's hair.  He now wears a hat at all times...

...so, I'm just gonna wait a little longer. :)

5/18, is when they're supposed to allow salons/haircuts/etc.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 28, 2020, 08:43:55 AM
I'm getting shaggy AF also, and I had mine cut just before all this S happened.

I decided a while back that if I could not express myself without profanity, I should get a larger vocabulary.  I think when I was younger, it seemed "cool" to cuss.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 28, 2020, 09:22:34 AM
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/other/494979-model-predicts-higher-death-toll-in-us-amid-states-reopening (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/other/494979-model-predicts-higher-death-toll-in-us-amid-states-reopening)

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation (https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation)

No matter what a governor does, he's going to be criticized either for killing a lot of people or over reacting.

A lot of what I have read mischaracterized what our governor actually has done.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 28, 2020, 09:39:45 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 28, 2020, 09:22:34 AM
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/other/494979-model-predicts-higher-death-toll-in-us-amid-states-reopening (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/other/494979-model-predicts-higher-death-toll-in-us-amid-states-reopening)

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation (https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation)

No matter what a governor does, he's going to be criticized either for killing a lot of people or over reacting.

A lot of what I have read mischaracterized what our governor actually has done.
In short we can respect the virus but not run from it

Nobody knows including the stupid models what will happen when a state opens up with appropriate precautions

one thing is for sure we can not sustain being closed down so we have to make every effort to get back to normal

the question from all the naysayers should not be when to reopen but how to reopen

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 28, 2020, 09:58:51 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 28, 2020, 09:39:45 AM
Nobody knows including the stupid models what will happen when a state opens up with appropriate precautions
As I said a couple pages upthread, the IHME model is not my favorite. It seems much more "reactive" than "predictive". Which makes it more of a tracker than a model. 

But in common usage, it has become "the model". So it's what everyone is looking at...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 28, 2020, 10:01:43 AM
The biggest unknown now I think is degree of immunity conferred in the survivors.  If that is low to zero, there can be no end.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 28, 2020, 10:10:13 AM
Rock and a hard place
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 28, 2020, 10:38:50 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 28, 2020, 10:01:43 AM
The biggest unknown now I think is degree of immunity conferred in the survivors.  If that is low to zero, there can be no end.


Good article on the subject: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/27/1000569/how-long-are-people-immune-to-covid-19/ (https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/27/1000569/how-long-are-people-immune-to-covid-19/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 28, 2020, 10:50:32 AM
Man, potential for reinfection within 6 months/2x per year is... tough to think about.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on April 28, 2020, 10:50:56 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 28, 2020, 10:38:50 AM
Good article on the subject: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/27/1000569/how-long-are-people-immune-to-covid-19/ (https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/27/1000569/how-long-are-people-immune-to-covid-19/)
Well that's not uplifting
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 28, 2020, 10:54:50 AM
I've seen several reports that immunity is either short or limited or nonexistent.  I can't say they are true of course, the studies could be flawed.

That would of course be really bad news for the aged and otherwise compromised.

The vaccine story is also confusing, to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 28, 2020, 11:00:59 AM
does anyone know what if any immunity one gets after having the flu
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 28, 2020, 11:06:00 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 28, 2020, 11:00:59 AM
does anyone know what if any immunity one gets after having the flu

From what I've read, you get immunity for a year or three to that specific type of flu, which is why the vaccine is reasonably effective.

Influenza types bounce around each year so they use a different vaccine each year to manage the 2-3-4 most prevalent types detected in China early in the year.

If they guess right, the vaccine works pretty well.

But if you come down with H1N1 and later are infected with H3N2, you will get sick.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 28, 2020, 11:15:39 AM
I'll worry about getting it a 2nd time after dealing with it the 1st
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 28, 2020, 12:17:59 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 28, 2020, 10:50:32 AM
Man, potential for reinfection within 6 months/2x per year is... tough to think about.
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 28, 2020, 10:54:50 AM
I've seen several reports that immunity is either short or limited or nonexistent.  I can't say they are true of course, the studies could be flawed.

That would of course be really bad news for the aged and otherwise compromised.

The vaccine story is also confusing, to me.
We simply don't know. The article suggested that the 2003 SARS survivors didn't show antibodies when retested, but did still show T cells, which might help?

Comparing to the common cold [the strains caused by a coronavirus] is unknown whether it's applicable, because the common cold is so mild. Is little immunity generated because it's mild or because it's a coronavirus? 

But yeah, I'm not sure I have a lot of faith in the development of an effective vaccine. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 28, 2020, 12:20:25 PM
https://thelogicofscience.com/2020/04/29/shoddy-statistics-and-false-claims-dr-erickson-dangerously-misled-the-public-on-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR1SOcCnxetiDAxbj79cFqQ0X_CFrox4dXJ6IZNE0FyD_NIJfHnkgrOg-MQ (https://thelogicofscience.com/2020/04/29/shoddy-statistics-and-false-claims-dr-erickson-dangerously-misled-the-public-on-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR1SOcCnxetiDAxbj79cFqQ0X_CFrox4dXJ6IZNE0FyD_NIJfHnkgrOg-MQ)

Interesting rebuttal of the two doctors who said we should reopen now.

 I’m sure there will be some who continue to insist that these two know what they are talking about because they are doctors, at which point my question becomes, “why trust them?” There are thousands of doctors with far more relevant experience who disagree, so why trust these two? Why cherry-pick them out of all the experts (https://thelogicofscience.com/2019/08/26/dont-cherry-pick-your-experts/)? What makes them more trustworthy than all the other MDs and PhDs? Is it possible that you are blindly believing them not because they have good data (they don’t) or because they are experts (they aren’t) but rather simply because they are saying the things you want to hear? You should carefully consider this possibility, because it is a very easy cognitive trap to fall into.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 28, 2020, 12:21:13 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 28, 2020, 09:39:45 AM
In short we can respect the virus but not run from it

Nobody knows including the stupid models what will happen when a state opens up with appropriate precautions

one thing is for sure we can not sustain being closed down so we have to make every effort to get back to normal

the question from all the naysayers should not be when to reopen but how to reopen


My post from a couple of pages back talks about this in our area.  Educated, white collar workers that can mostly work from home and have experience with the carnage in Philly want the shut down to continue.  Older people want the shut down to continue.  Younger and middle aged blue collar workers that find themselves out of a job are getting increasingly desperate.

It's a sad state of affairs.  The right choice is to keep this thing shut down for a few more weeks and totally try and eradicate this thing.  But people aren't complying with the stay at home order and there seems to be no end in sight, even if we are finally seeing decreasing numbers.  I don't blame the desperate folks for wanting to get back to work as soon as possible.

Worst part is -- even if we completely open the state back up, the economy isn't going to recover overnight.  Older people (those with money to burn) aren't suddenly flock to restaurants and cruises like they used to.  I already know my business is going to take a huge hit when tax revenues fall well short -- in addition to the hit we are currently taking.

And, yeah, China needs to tighten up.  But now the ball is in our court, and I feel we will be responsible for the second wave.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 28, 2020, 12:25:56 PM
I'd go now to a restaurant that had the precautions in place, especially with outdoor dining.  However, I'm in good health and not yet over 75, that could change my calculus.

The cruise thing, nyet, and flying, nyet.  Flying sounds like a ridiculous option right now for a vacation.  I have an Amex card that gets me into the Delta lounge, I need to call today and downgrade that.

I would be willing to drive somewhere in a couple months or so.  I think.

I'm curious why the IHE whatever model shows the infection rate dropping from about now to later.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 28, 2020, 12:49:15 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 28, 2020, 12:20:25 PM
https://thelogicofscience.com/2020/04/29/shoddy-statistics-and-false-claims-dr-erickson-dangerously-misled-the-public-on-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR1SOcCnxetiDAxbj79cFqQ0X_CFrox4dXJ6IZNE0FyD_NIJfHnkgrOg-MQ (https://thelogicofscience.com/2020/04/29/shoddy-statistics-and-false-claims-dr-erickson-dangerously-misled-the-public-on-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR1SOcCnxetiDAxbj79cFqQ0X_CFrox4dXJ6IZNE0FyD_NIJfHnkgrOg-MQ)

Interesting rebuttal of the two doctors who said we should reopen now.

I’m sure there will be some who continue to insist that these two know what they are talking about because they are doctors, at which point my question becomes, “why trust them?” There are thousands of doctors with far more relevant experience who disagree, so why trust these two? Why cherry-pick them out of all the experts (https://thelogicofscience.com/2019/08/26/dont-cherry-pick-your-experts/)? What makes them more trustworthy than all the other MDs and PhDs? Is it possible that you are blindly believing them not because they have good data (they don’t) or because they are experts (they aren’t) but rather simply because they are saying the things you want to hear? You should carefully consider this possibility, because it is a very easy cognitive trap to fall into.
It's also been pointed out that they are owners of urgent care clinics. Reopening would be in their financial interest. 

Maybe that's not affecting their reasoning, but I would think that the best discussions of reopening would involve epidemiologists and economists, not urgent care clinic owners. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 28, 2020, 12:56:47 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 28, 2020, 09:22:34 AM

A lot of what I have read mischaracterized what our governor actually has done.
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 28, 2020, 10:38:50 AM
Good article on the subject: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/27/1000569/how-long-are-people-immune-to-covid-19/ (https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/27/1000569/how-long-are-people-immune-to-covid-19/)
tough to make quality decisions based on lack of knowledge and poor reporting/journalism 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 28, 2020, 01:12:51 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 28, 2020, 12:49:15 PM
It's also been pointed out that they are owners of urgent care clinics. Reopening would be in their financial interest.

Maybe that's not affecting their reasoning, but I would think that the best discussions of reopening would involve epidemiologists and economists, not urgent care clinic owners.
I thought this part was interesting, but we've seen a good bit of flocking toward contrarian viewpoints, which CD's quote obviously mentions. 

That's not to say other folks haven't flocked to the most dire projections for certain reasons, but I've come to the point where I always like to think, if this confirms something that makes me comfortable, it's probably the thing I should take the hardest look at. (Not that I always live out that goal)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 28, 2020, 01:13:13 PM
I read the rest of Cincy's link... Yeah, sounds like those two are way off the reservation with their terrible use of statistics and biased reasoning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 28, 2020, 01:13:47 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 28, 2020, 01:12:51 PM
I thought this part was interesting, but we've seen a good bit of flocking toward contrarian viewpoints, which CD's quote obviously mentions.

That's not to say other folks haven't flocked to the most dire projections for certain reasons, but I've come to the point where I always like to think, if this confirms something that makes me comfortable, it's probably the thing I should take the hardest look at. (Not that I always live out that goal)
Agreed. Confirmation bias is a terrible thing, especially because it's SOOOO easy. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 28, 2020, 01:30:48 PM
I completely agree, oh wait, I completely disagree, um, I'm not sure, let me ask the 8 ball again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 28, 2020, 01:36:26 PM
are we testing for antibodies anywhere besides NY and California
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 28, 2020, 02:31:53 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 28, 2020, 01:36:26 PM
are we testing for antibodies anywhere besides NY and California
I guess not
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 28, 2020, 03:06:12 PM
dunno 320, I can't help with any answer to that.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 28, 2020, 03:10:20 PM
First dog tests positive for coronavirus.

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/att/xandr/dog-thought-first-test-positive-103900014.html (https://currently.att.yahoo.com/att/xandr/dog-thought-first-test-positive-103900014.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 28, 2020, 03:11:39 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 28, 2020, 06:26:43 AM
Not done in Illinois until 09/30. So, I won't turn off the lights when I leave in two days, but I certainly will on 10/01.

The House Speaker thinks people who are leaving Illinois in droves are just socially distancing.
A wonderful thing about federalism is that people can vote with their feet and still remain Americans.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 28, 2020, 03:15:13 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 28, 2020, 11:06:00 AM
From what I've read, you get immunity for a year or three to that specific type of flu, which is why the vaccine is reasonably effective.

Influenza types bounce around each year so they use a different vaccine each year to manage the 2-3-4 most prevalent types detected in China early in the year.

If they guess right, the vaccine works pretty well.

But if you come down with H1N1 and later are infected with H3N2, you will get sick.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm)
Why China?  Is there something about China and flu?  Or is there something about the CCP and flu? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 28, 2020, 03:15:59 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 28, 2020, 03:10:20 PM
First dog tests positive for coronavirus.

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/att/xandr/dog-thought-first-test-positive-103900014.html (https://currently.att.yahoo.com/att/xandr/dog-thought-first-test-positive-103900014.html)
is nothing safe

quick protect the goldfish
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 28, 2020, 03:27:18 PM
Well crap.  Next thing you know, they're gonna tell us that the coronavirus can be found in bats!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 28, 2020, 03:27:21 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 28, 2020, 03:15:13 PM
Why China?  Is there something about China and flu?  Or is there something about the CCP and flu?
it's the chinese bats
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 28, 2020, 03:43:58 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 28, 2020, 01:36:26 PM
are we testing for antibodies anywhere besides NY and California
Probably.

I was just reading an article in which they are actually trying to figure out a way to test wastewater for coronavirus to get an early indication of new infections and to possibly estimate how many people have the disease.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00973-x (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00973-x)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 28, 2020, 03:58:32 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 28, 2020, 03:43:58 PM
Probably.

I was just reading an article in which they are actually trying to figure out a way to test wastewater for coronavirus to get an early indication of new infections and to possibly estimate how many people have the disease.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00973-x (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00973-x)
sounds like a great job
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 28, 2020, 04:07:49 PM
just walked by the TV, saw a stat.... over 1/5th of all deaths were at care facilities

lock the doors!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 28, 2020, 04:11:42 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 28, 2020, 03:15:13 PM
Why China?  Is there something about China and flu?  Or is there something about the CCP and flu?
Their time zone is like 4 months ahead of ours.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 28, 2020, 04:13:15 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 28, 2020, 03:15:13 PM
Why China?  Is there something about China and flu?  Or is there something about the CCP and flu?
China needs to be disappeared?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 28, 2020, 04:21:22 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 28, 2020, 01:36:26 PM
are we testing for antibodies anywhere besides NY and California
Iowa has been doing some antibody testing since the 15th, but I'm not sure if it's large scale
started at U of Iowa hospitals
a pharmacy near Des Moines was trying to be approved for testing by the Feds
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 28, 2020, 04:23:14 PM
Yeah actually I know there's at least SOME antibody testing in Chicago because there's a doc on surlyhorns that's been tested (he tested positive with never feeling any symptoms at all, FWIW).




Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 28, 2020, 04:26:02 PM
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-are-seasonal-flu-vaccines-made/ (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-are-seasonal-flu-vaccines-made/)

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/flu-vaccine-selections-suggest-this-years-shot-may-be-off-the-mark/ (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/flu-vaccine-selections-suggest-this-years-shot-may-be-off-the-mark/)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 28, 2020, 04:45:18 PM
Yeah @longhorn320 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=16) I almost replied to your post, but I was just going to say that I wasn't aware of any outside of NY and CA, but that my lack of awareness shouldn't be taken as gospel.

Sounds like from other posters there might be some additional antibody testing going on. 

Hopefully we'll start seeing a lot more of it, so we can get a clearer picture of the spread of this thing and its true mortality rate. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 28, 2020, 05:21:11 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 28, 2020, 04:13:15 PM
China needs to be disappeared?
I've asked Samantha on bewitched to wiggle her nose.Uncle Martin on My favorite Martian to point and spin his fingers and Genie to cross her arms and nod her head and nothing seems to be working.Even Scottie couldn't beam them up.Maybe Diane Pelosi can scare them off
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 28, 2020, 05:23:59 PM
Sounds like a job for Hillary!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 28, 2020, 05:28:57 PM

Talk about smelly
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 28, 2020, 05:33:32 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 28, 2020, 01:30:48 PM
I completely agree, oh wait, I completely disagree, um, I'm not sure, let me ask the 8 ball again.
Never trust those things when you can flip a coin
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 28, 2020, 05:48:37 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 27, 2020, 07:10:07 PM
Beer name ideas for a pandemic?"

Thoughts? Better ideas?

ELCA IPA or Reverends Rye
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 28, 2020, 07:06:54 PM
So I've been reading about the Santa Clara antibody study, and it sounds like there are a lot of issues...

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/19/fatal-flaws-in-stanford-study-of-coronavirus-prevalence/ (https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/19/fatal-flaws-in-stanford-study-of-coronavirus-prevalence/)

Primarily one of the issues is the reliability of the test. Out of 3300 people tested, they found 50 with antibodies. Literally if you employ known statistical tools to this test given the false positive rate, it's possible that zero of those 3300 people could have antibodies and you could still end up with 50 positive tests within standard confidence intervals... Which means there's very little that you can draw from it.

That doesn't get into any of the other statistical / sampling / postsampling adjustments done, some of which were questionable. 50 out of 3300 is 1.5%, yet the study authors concluded based upon this that 2.5% to 4.2% of Santa Clara County residents were likely previously infected. Statistically, the lowest bound of the results from the authors suggested an infection rate 66% higher than what they actually measured. Thats... questionable.

So upon reading, I place about zero confidence in that study, and to an extent the Los Angeles study might have some similar statistical issues because the antibody rate was still very low (but much higher than Santa Clara, so probably much more reliable). I believe the LA study had a 4.1% measured antibody rate. However IIRC it was <1000 participants, so that makes the potential ranges wider too.

It suggests that the NY study is probably more likely reliable. When you start getting numbers like 15% statewide and even 25% in NYC, you're no longer in the range where low rates of false positive/negative results really make a meaningful difference to your confidence in the numbers. I.e. you could still be wrong, but the error bars of how far wrong you are are not exactly heavily impacted by test accuracy. 

Note that the NY studies show probably somewhere in the range of a 0.5-0.78 true mortality rate... Much higher than the seasonal flu... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 28, 2020, 07:13:52 PM
.Why is it that everyone i've talked to who either works in Hospitals/Nursing facilities and know of other in them has no 1st hand accounts of death to pass on.Just curious.If we don't get it in gear and try something jobs lost,blasted hopes and broken dreams and the CCP wins in abstentia 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 28, 2020, 10:28:17 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 28, 2020, 07:13:52 PM
.Why is it that everyone i've talked to who either works in Hospitals/Nursing facilities and know of other in them has no 1st hand accounts of death to pass on.Just curious.If we don't get it in gear and try something jobs lost,blasted hopes and broken dreams and the CCP wins in abstentia
I do.

I actually know 5 people that have/had the virus.

3 were pretty sick but got over it.
1 is a leukemia patient and was just diagnosed.  It's early yet, but the outlook is not good.

The last guy is an interesting case.  He has a social hobby and about a month or more ago he was notified that someone at his event tested positive and was told to self quarantine.  This is before things were officially locked down.  10-15 days later he starts making daily posts on facebook about how he was diagnosed with COVID19 and how bad it is.  He started self quarantining but had a lot of problems and had to go to the ER at least twice.  He finally seemed to be getting better this week, just dizzy spells and a very minor fever.  He made a post yesterday about how it was a bad day and he apparently wasn't out of the woods yet.

Today he wakes up totally confused because he doesn't remember the last 24 hours.  At all.  He looks at the previous day on his phone and see texts, facebook posts, outgoing calls, etc. etc. and remembers NOTHING.  Here's his post:

4/28: Day 26? Or is it Day 42? Daily checkin
This is scary. I have zero memory of yesterday. In my mind, "yesterday" was Sunday, and the things I remember from last night were Sunday night. Monday never happened. My computer tells me that today is Tuesday. Diane tells me that I repeated a story about "yesterday" that I had already told a day ago, yesterday. But to me, yesterday was when it happened, and I am just now telling the story.
I have no overt symptoms today. Temp is 98.7, no chills or fever, almost no coughing, all the other symptoms are gone. But Monday is gone, too.
There are signs in my email, SMS, and browser history that I existed on Monday and interacted with people. But I have no memory of it. Reading it is like reading a book someone else wrote. It's all new to me.
Do any of you remember me on Monday 4/27? I don't.
My mind is the only thing I have. If I can't count on that, then I'm hosed. Feeling rather scared now...


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 28, 2020, 10:33:42 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 28, 2020, 07:13:52 PM
.Why is it that everyone i've talked to who either works in Hospitals/Nursing facilities and know of other in them has no 1st hand accounts of death to pass on.Just curious.If we don't get it in gear and try something jobs lost,blasted hopes and broken dreams and the CCP wins in abstentia
Oh, and to answer your question:  My neighbor is a pediatrician.  Lost a 1 year old.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 28, 2020, 11:53:09 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 28, 2020, 07:13:52 PM
.Why is it that everyone i've talked to who either works in Hospitals/Nursing facilities and know of other in them has no 1st hand accounts of death to pass on.Just curious.If we don't get it in gear and try something jobs lost,blasted hopes and broken dreams and the CCP wins in abstentia
This is icky, man.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 29, 2020, 12:41:34 AM
It's gonna get a lot ickier.People who lose everything are going to be looking at tarts like you popping off who could give a shit if they do.Still doesn't change the fact that this is a miniscule number as unfortunate as it is to be putting the torch to our lives by .I've talked to 6 neighbors today and on anonymous messge board individual.The neighbors say we have to chance it and they're pissed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 29, 2020, 12:55:47 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 28, 2020, 07:13:52 PM
.Why is it that everyone i've talked to who either works in Hospitals/Nursing facilities and know of other in them has no 1st hand accounts of death to pass on.Just curious.If we don't get it in gear and try something jobs lost,blasted hopes and broken dreams and the CCP wins in abstentia
I mean, we'd have to know where you lived, how many people you talked to, have half a sense of where they worked ...

If I were to guess you lived in Ohio, purely by your fandom, 799 people have died in that state. Not knowing a single medical professional who was somewhat close to those doesn't seem so surprising. 

Shoot, we've had the flu numbers thrown around, but how often does someone directly tell you about flu deaths (I suppose they're less interesting).

But if you want to help with those jobs and dreams, you can donate to all manner of organizations buying local to feed whoever. Or eat takeout every meal. Or get takeout and donate that too. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 29, 2020, 01:03:11 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 28, 2020, 04:13:15 PM
China needs to be disappeared?
The CCP surely does.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 29, 2020, 01:05:34 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 28, 2020, 04:21:22 PM
Iowa has been doing some antibody testing since the 15th, but I'm not sure if it's large scale
started at U of Iowa hospitals
a pharmacy near Des Moines was trying to be approved for testing by the Feds
There's a building on 11th St. (old Route 66) in Tulsa with signs that read "Antibody Test Site," but I don't know if it's up and running yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 29, 2020, 01:07:15 AM
And almost all of them were infirm or elderly.It's the chance we take sitting at home only prolongs the inevitable - everyone coming in contact.There won't be much to hang around for as people are getting deperate.We've been misled down so many different rabitt holes.Waiting for a cure is worse than the ailment.They have no reliable anything either tests or vaccines.And IMO a lot more people have already had it from those I talked to.With precautions opening up isn't an option.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 29, 2020, 01:18:08 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 29, 2020, 12:55:47 AM
But if you want to help with those jobs and dreams, you can donate to all manner of organizations buying local to feed whoever. Or eat takeout every meal. Or get takeout and donate that too.
I've ordered out little because I've been holed up like a good little puppet.855 is nothing in a state of 11.5,try all the other ailments that take people every day.Come and tell the people around here that have received neither unemployment benefits or money from the Federal Government stimulus - THAT WAS PROMISED.But there jobs were shut down like the govt said but they've recieved nothing in return.If this goes on people will lash out and take those with them they deem responsible.This isn't saber rattling.They feel Was it worth throwing away over 2 months of income with 3 months of bills due? For the pittance and illusion of  safety we’ve got in exchange.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 29, 2020, 02:06:55 AM
I agree, the combination of keeping everyone home AND providing nothing to the masses has made it a cluster-fuq.  My thing is the lack of testing. 
Hey, wouldn't it be nice if you could get a test and go back to work the moment you were deemed virus free?  No, that wouldn't make things normal and no, it wouldn't totally prevent the spread, but it would be a helluva lot better than what you described.

The lack of testing is truly absurd.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 07:43:18 AM
What does a test tell you (presuming it has no false pos/negs)?  That you are virus free at that moment.  What about in an hour, or a day?

How often do you need to be tested to be considered virus free?  

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/IjORDGLckdP3RI9hJU5CWO/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/IjORDGLckdP3RI9hJU5CWO/)

I think the number from GA are going to be under a microscope (I'm already seeing some on FB trying to correlate the partial reopening with new numbers ...).  This is a pretty decent source if anyone is interested.  Obviously, we won't see a response (if at all) for another 10 days or more, and the daily numbers bounce around quite a bit.

IF there is no immunity conferred by having the virus, the numbers should continue to go higher with no herd immunity possible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 08:21:55 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 07:43:18 AM
What does a test tell you (presuming it has no false pos/negs)?  That you are virus free at that moment.  What about in an hour, or a day?

How often do you need to be tested to be considered virus free?  
Thank you.


Ya know, I never, ever thought that I would consider myself lucky to be able to work. I'm lucky. Many, many, many others, not so much.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: TyphonInc on April 29, 2020, 08:34:40 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 07:43:18 AM
What does a test tell you (presuming it has no false pos/negs)?  That you are virus free at that moment.  What about in an hour, or a day?

How often do you need to be tested to be considered virus free? 

South Korea tested everyone, and eradicated the virus from their nation. Testing worked for them, and in other places. 
Testing has worked to minimize impact of every other disease as well. To think testing isn't the best option we have at the moment is foolish. (Best option is vaccine, but we don't have one.) Test everyone, assist/isolate the infected, re-test those the infected have interacted with, move the healthy herd back to productivity.

I haven't been tested, but I'm also perfectly happy being a stay at home dad, homeschooling my 2 little sweet ones. If I was out in the work force, test me weekly (or as recommended by health experts) until the pandemic is under control. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 29, 2020, 08:40:31 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 29, 2020, 12:55:47 AM
I mean, we'd have to know where you lived, how many people you talked to, have half a sense of where they worked ...

If I were to guess you lived in Ohio, purely by your fandom, 799 people have died in that state. Not knowing a single medical professional who was somewhat close to those doesn't seem so surprising.

Shoot, we've had the flu numbers thrown around, but how often does someone directly tell you about flu deaths (I suppose they're less interesting).

But if you want to help with those jobs and dreams, you can donate to all manner of organizations buying local to feed whoever. Or eat takeout every meal. Or get takeout and donate that too.
I do have friends that work here in Ohio in the medical profession. One is a supervisor of nursing at a hospital in Lorain, Ohio which is just west of Cleveland. According to this person, they number of people being coded as having Covid is much greater than those that actually have the virus. If someone is admitted with ANY of the symptoms, they are immediately coded as having the virus. I asked why this was the case and they confirmed what I had thought all along. Because the hospital gets more federal money for a higher number of Covid patients. 

Therefore, if a patient with stage IV cancer is admitted and has a fever, they are coded with Covid. If they die, they are added to the list of those that died from Covid when in fact it was the Cancer that caused the death. 

Now that is simply 1 hospital in Ohio. However, based on Dr. Brix stating that they are encouraging hospitals to engage in this practice, what are the odds that other hospitals are doing the same? 

This is why I don't trust ANY of the numbers that the government or many others are putting out. There is such a wide range of opinion in the medical profession as to what constitutes a Covid infection vs what doesn't. And with the government incentivizing hospitals to increase their Covid numbers, how much can we really trust this data? 

As for donating or supporting local businesses, we have been doing that since day 1. However, that does little to help small business owners of businesses that are not deemed essential and cannot operate. It also does little for the part time servers at restaurants that are not working and do not qualify for unemployment compensation. My youngest daughter is one of them. She is a full time student at the Univ of Toledo and now back home. She had a part time job as a server at a local restaurant and used that money to help pay for her living expenses. She was planning on working full time this summer (with agreement with the owner) to save enough money to pay for her rent and other living expenses for the fall semester. Now that plan is down the drain. But hey, at least she didn't get a cough. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 29, 2020, 08:41:51 AM
Quote from: TyphonInc on April 29, 2020, 08:34:40 AM
South Korea tested everyone, and eradicated the virus from their nation. Testing worked for them, and in other places.
Testing has worked to minimize impact of every other disease as well. To think testing isn't the best option we have at the moment is foolish. (Best option is vaccine, but we don't have one.) Test everyone, assist/isolate the infected, re-test those the infected have interacted with, move the healthy herd back to productivity.

I haven't been tested, but I'm also perfectly happy being a stay at home dad, homeschooling my 2 little sweet ones. If I was out in the work force, test me weekly (or as recommended by health experts) until the pandemic is under control.
Sounds great. Were do we get 200 million tests we would need on a weekly basis to do this? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 29, 2020, 08:43:13 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 29, 2020, 02:06:55 AM
I agree, the combination of keeping everyone home AND providing nothing to the masses has made it a cluster-fuq.  My thing is the lack of testing. 
Hey, wouldn't it be nice if you could get a test and go back to work the moment you were deemed virus free?  No, that wouldn't make things normal and no, it wouldn't totally prevent the spread, but it would be a helluva lot better than what you described.
Hey wouldn't be nice if every one didn't have wives/kid/Gkids to feed and care about like you.Evidently you're free as a lark good for you-if you lose a home or business,get back to me.In the mean time my friends may need a place to stay can I forward your address?I'm sure you would be on board with this.You have answers just not the right ones
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 29, 2020, 08:45:06 AM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 29, 2020, 08:41:51 AM
Sounds great. Were do we get 200 million tests we would need on a weekly basis to do this?
Asked the insider trading F***s in Congress to pony up
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 29, 2020, 08:49:36 AM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 29, 2020, 08:40:31 AM
I do have friends that work here in Ohio in the medical profession........ 
Good Post NOB,said it better than I.Not saying don't take precautions just can't be held hostage by what might be under the bed or in the closet.Welcome to the 1800s we're all expendable but give it a shot
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 29, 2020, 08:51:21 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 29, 2020, 08:45:06 AM
Asked the insider trading F***s in Congress to pony up
I don't think it is a matter of money in this case as our government has shown that they will just print more. (A different topic that I will refrain from discussing on this board.)


The problem is manufacturing a test that is fairly accurate and simple to perform. A lot of testing involves sending samples to a lab and awaiting results. These test tend to be more accurate. There are some tests that give results in a matter of minutes but tend to give a lot of false pos/negs. But even those are limited. In order to effectively test the working population of the United States, on a weekly basis as was noted earlier, things change since a person was tested, you would need hundreds of millions of tests made available to ensure people are either not infected or become infected. Just not practical. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 08:57:48 AM
What do we do if there is no conferred immunity for this disease (either from contracting it or a vaccine)?

Or if it starts mutating rapidly to generate the same effect?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 29, 2020, 09:05:11 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 07:43:18 AM
What does a test tell you (presuming it has no false pos/negs)?  That you are virus free at that moment.  What about in an hour, or a day?

How often do you need to be tested to be considered virus free? 

Lock the thread
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 09:07:20 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 08:57:48 AM
What do we do if there is no conferred immunity for this disease (either from contracting it or a vaccine)?

Or if it starts mutating rapidly to generate the same effect?
What do we do if we find out this thing didn't come from a bat?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 09:08:22 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 09:07:20 AM
What do we do if we find out this thing didn't come from a bat?
I think it is nearly certain it came from a bat one way or the other, possibly via a pangolin as a zoonotic pathway.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 09:09:06 AM
On testing ...

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-testing-per-capita-us-italy-south-korea-2020-4 (https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-testing-per-capita-us-italy-south-korea-2020-4)

(https://i.imgur.com/I7DiKzj.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 29, 2020, 09:10:01 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 08:57:48 AM
What do we do if there is no conferred immunity for this disease (either from contracting it or a vaccine)?

Or if it starts mutating rapidly to generate the same effect?
Hiding in our houses for the rest of our lives doesn't seem to be a viable option. Life has risks, this is simply another. Humans tend to adapt to their environments, this would be another thing that we would either adapt too or find a way to live with. Either way, spending the rest of our lives hiding under our beds does not appear to be a viable option.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 09:11:26 AM
That is a snapshot in time of course, and South Korea started testing earlier, but in mid-March they had tested 270,000 out of a population of nearly 52 million.

There is more to this than just testing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 09:13:23 AM
If there is no immunity conferred, we will have to adjust obviously, and the elderly are going to suffer one way or the other particularly hard.  I'm very curious about how South Korea has managed this situation, there is more to it than testing of course.

We should be trying to learn from good and bad experiences elsewhere instead of harping on some single variable (particularly if it has a latent political point).

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 09:30:02 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/gilead-reports-positive-data-on-remdesivir-coronavirus-drug-trial.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/gilead-reports-positive-data-on-remdesivir-coronavirus-drug-trial.html)

Some apparently good news (aside from the fact I own some GILD stock in my IRA).

Gilead Sciences (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=GILD) said Wednesday preliminary results of a coronavirus drug trial showed at least 50% of patients treated with a 5-day dosage of antiviral drug remdesivir improved and more than half were discharged from the hospital within two weeks.
Shares of Gilead were up more than 7% in premarket trading.

The clinical trial involved patients with severe cases of Covid-19. The severe study is “single-arm,” meaning it did not evaluate the drug against a control group of patients who didn’t receive the drug.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 29, 2020, 09:34:02 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 09:09:06 AM
On testing ...

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-testing-per-capita-us-italy-south-korea-2020-4 (https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-testing-per-capita-us-italy-south-korea-2020-4)

(https://i.imgur.com/I7DiKzj.png)


One of the reason South Korea's tests/1M are lower than ours is that they started AGGRESSIVELY testing very early. Rather than let the virus spread unknowingly, whenever a positive case was found they would perform "contact tracing" to find out who you had been around in the recent past, and proactively go test THOSE people too, in order to try to arrest the spread before it could blow up. 

According to worldometers they have over 600K tests now and only a little over 10K documented cases, a 60:1 ratio.

We now have just under 6M tests and a little over 1M documented cases, only a 6:1 ratio. 

This is because we let this thing spread for a long time before anyone got serious about it, and even now we haven't followed South Korea's lead and attempted to do contact tracing and proactively look for where it might have spread when we find a confirmed case. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 29, 2020, 09:35:36 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 09:30:02 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/gilead-reports-positive-data-on-remdesivir-coronavirus-drug-trial.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/gilead-reports-positive-data-on-remdesivir-coronavirus-drug-trial.html)

Some apparently good news (aside from the fact I own some GILD stock in my IRA).

Gilead Sciences (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=GILD) said Wednesday preliminary results of a coronavirus drug trial showed at least 50% of patients treated with a 5-day dosage of antiviral drug remdesivir improved and more than half were discharged from the hospital within two weeks.
Shares of Gilead were up more than 7% in premarket trading.

The clinical trial involved patients with severe cases of Covid-19. The severe study is “single-arm,” meaning it did not evaluate the drug against a control group of patients who didn’t receive the drug.

Excellent news. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 29, 2020, 09:37:08 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 29, 2020, 09:34:02 AM
One of the reason South Korea's tests/1M are lower than ours is that they started AGGRESSIVELY testing very early. Rather than let the virus spread unknowingly, whenever a positive case was found they would perform "contact tracing" to find out who you had been around in the recent past, and proactively go test THOSE people too, in order to try to arrest the spread before it could blow up.

According to worldometers they have over 600K tests now and only a little over 10K documented cases, a 60:1 ratio.

We now have just under 6M tests and a little over 1M documented cases, only a 6:1 ratio.

This is because we let this thing spread for a long time before anyone got serious about it, and even now we haven't followed South Korea's lead and attempted to do contact tracing and proactively look for where it might have spread when we find a confirmed case.
I don't remember the specifics of what it was or even where I read it, but one of the reasons that we don't follow the contact tracking model employed by the South Koreans is because Americans would not so freely allow such invasions into their privacy as the South Koreans demanded. Again, I don't remember where I read about this, but their contact tracing was pretty invasive. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 09:38:10 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 09:08:22 AM
I think it is nearly certain it came from a bat one way or the other, possibly via a pangolin as a zoonotic pathway.


And a month ago it was certain to have come from a shithole wet market.

I don't think anything is certain with this thing anymore. Poker players never show their cards.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 09:39:05 AM
RoK had done 270,000 tests in mid-March, out of 52 million population.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 29, 2020, 09:44:31 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 09:38:10 AM
Poker players never show their cards.
Specially the seedy ones with questionable intentions and windfall asperations
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 09:45:57 AM
There is this notion that South Korea tested aggressively, and early, which may be true, but they did not test even a large percentage of their population early.  There is more to their success than just early testing.

If they had tested only a quarter of a percent of the population by mid-March, that is not to me a sign of wide spread testing.  I'm sure they tested folks who showed symptoms and then did contact tracing to the extent possible, not just rep sample testing.

I am beginning to think we will have to have a treatment with an antiviral that works well, not a vaccine, and not herd immunity.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 09:47:32 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 09:38:10 AM
And a month ago it was certain to have come from a shithole wet market.

I don't think anything is certain with this thing anymore. Poker players never show their cards.
That was the leading hypothesis, it was not at all a certain conclusion at the time.  It may still have originated that way, we don't know for sure now either.

Everything I read technical says it is NOT bioengineered, but it is very possible I think it escaped from that biolab unintentionally.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 29, 2020, 09:56:36 AM

Not sure how it came about but that's exactly what I told Cindy.The CCP would be shooting themselves in the foot
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 09:57:56 AM
This was released on the world intentionally. They closed Wuhon to their own, but still let Wuhon travel the world, and the world travel to Wuhon. The CCP knew what it had, and they unleashed it upon the world to bring everyone's economies down to theirs. 

Poker is being played.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 29, 2020, 10:01:00 AM
I hope that's not the case but it certainly could be.Some of our own Corporations unfortunately are damn near this nefarious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 29, 2020, 10:03:30 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 09:45:57 AM
There is this notion that South Korea tested aggressively, and early, which may be true, but they did not test even a large percentage of their population early.  There is more to their success than just early testing.

If they had tested only a quarter of a percent of the population by mid-March, that is not to me a sign of wide spread testing.  I'm sure they tested folks who showed symptoms and then did contact tracing to the extent possible, not just rep sample testing.

I am beginning to think we will have to have a treatment with an antiviral that works well, not a vaccine, and not herd immunity. 
I do think that a lot of their early cases were traced to some specific religious sect, which might have helped them by catching the spread within that group before it had hit the rest of the population. https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-51877437/the-cult-behind-south-korea-coronavirus-outbreak (https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-51877437/the-cult-behind-south-korea-coronavirus-outbreak)

But I think the key is more than "widespread testing", it's that as soon as a case was found they did the contact tracing to try to identify where it might have spread from a confirmed case before it could spread much farther. 

And note that South Korea also embraced stay at home very early on, and has continued their stay-at-home efforts. They've just recently started to talk about reopening: https://qz.com/1844946/south-korea-keeps-social-distancing-post-covid-19-containment/

 (https://qz.com/1844946/south-korea-keeps-social-distancing-post-covid-19-containment/)So there's more to it than just the testing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 29, 2020, 10:35:41 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 09:45:57 AM
There is this notion that South Korea tested aggressively, and early, which may be true, but they did not test even a large percentage of their population early.  There is more to their success than just early testing.

If they had tested only a quarter of a percent of the population by mid-March, that is not to me a sign of wide spread testing.  I'm sure they tested folks who showed symptoms and then did contact tracing to the extent possible, not just rep sample testing.

I am beginning to think we will have to have a treatment with an antiviral that works well, not a vaccine, and not herd immunity.
Yes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 29, 2020, 10:40:29 AM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 29, 2020, 08:40:31 AM
I do have friends that work here in Ohio in the medical profession. One is a supervisor of nursing at a hospital in Lorain, Ohio which is just west of Cleveland. According to this person, they number of people being coded as having Covid is much greater than those that actually have the virus. If someone is admitted with ANY of the symptoms, they are immediately coded as having the virus. I asked why this was the case and they confirmed what I had thought all along. Because the hospital gets more federal money for a higher number of Covid patients.

Therefore, if a patient with stage IV cancer is admitted and has a fever, they are coded with Covid. If they die, they are added to the list of those that died from Covid when in fact it was the Cancer that caused the death.

Now that is simply 1 hospital in Ohio. However, based on Dr. Brix stating that they are encouraging hospitals to engage in this practice, what are the odds that other hospitals are doing the same?

This is why I don't trust ANY of the numbers that the government or many others are putting out. There is such a wide range of opinion in the medical profession as to what constitutes a Covid infection vs what doesn't. And with the government incentivizing hospitals to increase their Covid numbers, how much can we really trust this data?

As for donating or supporting local businesses, we have been doing that since day 1. However, that does little to help small business owners of businesses that are not deemed essential and cannot operate. It also does little for the part time servers at restaurants that are not working and do not qualify for unemployment compensation. My youngest daughter is one of them. She is a full time student at the Univ of Toledo and now back home. She had a part time job as a server at a local restaurant and used that money to help pay for her living expenses. She was planning on working full time this summer (with agreement with the owner) to save enough money to pay for her rent and other living expenses for the fall semester. Now that plan is down the drain. But hey, at least she didn't get a cough.
So your friend is a supervisor of nursing at a hospital and in that supervisory position is seeing a high degree of medicare fraud? I look forward to that person doing something and exposing it to the public eye. After all, being a supervisor at a place that is not only committing some fraud but doing so in the midst of a pandemic is probably not a great one. 

I am a little surprise that in the midst of talking with a hospital supervisor, there hasn't been a chance in nuance in your writing about comorbidities. Clearly most parts of that are not in fact galling propagation of the lie of this plague, but a normal part of the way death is determined. It doesn't seem like your friend got into that much. 

Anyway, I ask this at the end, if you don't trust the government, would you deem it possible the government is underplaying the numbers? I don't say that because I have a particular belief that they are, but I do worry when someone says "The numbers are cooked, an they're definitely cooked in a way that matches what I've felt all along."

And I feel sorry your daughter can't be a full-time server over the summer, but I'm glad she had a family with a level of security that she's not in more dire straits. Thankful for that. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 10:41:15 AM
South Korea has managed this extremely well (unless they are lying, which I doubt is likely at all).  But their story is more involved than JUST a lot of early testing.

The whole story on this thing is still very confusing to me as to why some countries managed very poorly and other nearby did well (compare Italy/Spain/France with Germany for example).  

Italy's numbers are starting to max out apparently and drop.  Is that a result of distancing or herd immunity?  What will happen in Sweden?  

If there is no acquired immunity, this thing should keep on going up (bad) and not level out, except as distancing works.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on April 29, 2020, 11:12:44 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 29, 2020, 02:06:55 AM
I agree, the combination of keeping everyone home AND providing nothing to the masses has made it a cluster-fuq.  My thing is the lack of testing. 
Hey, wouldn't it be nice if you could get a test and go back to work the moment you were deemed virus free?  No, that wouldn't make things normal and no, it wouldn't totally prevent the spread, but it would be a helluva lot better than what you described.

The lack of testing is truly absurd.
What good is testing. If I test negative for the virus today, who is to say that I won't get it tomorrow. You would have to test every day.


Now if you are talking about the present antibodies (if you can reacquire the virus) that is a different story. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 29, 2020, 11:17:24 AM
Quote from: Riffraft on April 29, 2020, 11:12:44 AM
What good is testing. If I test negative for the virus today, who is to say that I won't get it tomorrow. You would have to test every day.


Now if you are talking about the present antibodies (if you can reacquire the virus) that is a different story.
My point exactly


Testing if patient show signs of virus is fine but I think general testing should only be used to clear a finite group like a nursing home or ocean liner

we need more antibody testing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 29, 2020, 12:09:20 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 29, 2020, 10:40:29 AM
So your friend is a supervisor of nursing at a hospital and in that supervisory position is seeing a high degree of medicare fraud? I look forward to that person doing something and exposing it to the public eye. After all, being a supervisor at a place that is not only committing some fraud but doing so in the midst of a pandemic is probably not a great one.

When the government is the one encouraging hospitals to attribute everyone possible to Covid, how would that be medicare fraud? They are following government guidelines. The point is that the government is the one that appears to be the entity that is propping up the numbers. The hospital is simply following the guidelines being issued. 

I am a little surprise that in the midst of talking with a hospital supervisor, there hasn't been a chance in nuance in your writing about comorbidities. Clearly most parts of that are not in fact galling propagation of the lie of this plague, but a normal part of the way death is determined. It doesn't seem like your friend got into that much.

When someone with a terminal illness shows symptoms of a cold, flu or any other virus, and they ultimately die, their deaths are not attributed to the cold, flu or other illness. However with Covid, that seems to be the case. Why is that? What is so different about this virus that any and all deaths need to be accounted for as having been a result of this virus? Most likely because having people die of other factors does nothing to spread fear and panic the way that showing high number of Covid deaths does. 

Anyway, I ask this at the end, if you don't trust the government, would you deem it possible the government is underplaying the numbers? I don't say that because I have a particular belief that they are, but I do worry when someone says "The numbers are cooked, an they're definitely cooked in a way that matches what I've felt all along."

That could be a possibility. However based on comments made by both Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci, it would seem unlikely. Both of these doctors appear to be reveling in their new found fame and power to influence public policy. Dr. Birx suggesting to attribute any deaths to Covid just for showing symptoms and Dr. Fauci telling people we should not shake hands but having sex with people you meet online would be ok. (Personally, I think the guy is a quack, but that's just me).

And I feel sorry your daughter can't be a full-time server over the summer, but I'm glad she had a family with a level of security that she's not in more dire straits. Thankful for that.

Yes, she will be ok and we will do what we have to do to make sure that her school bills are paid and that she is able to resume her education when things open up. However, there are many more out there being severely hurt by the shutdown that will never recover. And my guess is that the shutdown of our economy will have a negative effect on far more people that the virus itself ever does.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 29, 2020, 12:19:14 PM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 29, 2020, 12:09:20 PM
Yes, she will be ok and we will do what we have to do to make sure that her school bills are paid and that she is able to resume her education when things open up. However, there are many more out there being severely hurt by the shutdown that will never recover. And my guess is that the shutdown of our economy will have a negative effect on far more people that the virus itself ever does.
That is not a guess.  That’s a fact. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 29, 2020, 12:19:21 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 29, 2020, 10:40:29 AM

Anyway, I ask this at the end, if you don't trust the government, would you deem it possible the government is underplaying the numbers? I don't say that because I have a particular belief that they are, but I do worry when someone says "The numbers are cooked, an they're definitely cooked in a way that matches what I've felt all along."
In fact, the argument is that hospitals are feeling very severe economic hits because they're not doing other surgeries. Wouldn't a hospital actually have an incentive to DOWNPLAY the effect of COVID-19 in order to reopen faster?

Wouldn't economic actors (state, federal governments) have an incentive to DOWNPLAY the effect of COVID-19 to reopen their economies faster? 

I find it interesting that world leaders, listening to their own epidemiologists, have basically universally followed the same playbooks on this, at great economic cost to themselves, but people think deaths are being wildly overreported here because of medicare reimbursement rates?

Do we think Spain, Italy, France, the UK, Belgium and the Netherlands, all of whom have a death rate as a percentage of confirmed cases over 10% (twice what we have in the US) are cooking their books too? What would be the incentive? 

The whole world wants to find an excuse to reopen our economies... Maybe sometimes the easiest answer is to use Occam's Razor: maybe this virus is actually pretty damn terrible, despite that we don't want to believe it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 29, 2020, 12:31:40 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 29, 2020, 12:19:21 PM
In fact, the argument is that hospitals are feeling very severe economic hits because they're not doing other surgeries. Wouldn't a hospital actually have an incentive to DOWNPLAY the effect of COVID-19 in order to reopen faster?

Wouldn't economic actors (state, federal governments) have an incentive to DOWNPLAY the effect of COVID-19 to reopen their economies faster?

I find it interesting that world leaders, listening to their own epidemiologists, have basically universally followed the same playbooks on this, at great economic cost to themselves, but people think deaths are being wildly overreported here because of medicare reimbursement rates?

Do we think Spain, Italy, France, the UK, Belgium and the Netherlands, all of whom have a death rate as a percentage of confirmed cases over 10% (twice what we have in the US) are cooking their books too? What would be the incentive?

The whole world wants to find an excuse to reopen our economies... Maybe sometimes the easiest answer is to use Occam's Razor: maybe this virus is actually pretty damn terrible, despite that we don't want to believe it.
The whole world does?  I can randomly turn on the tv or go to the web to “ educate myself” in where we stand.
I assure you- the OVERWHELMING sources I find
in the “ normal “ media channels and social media DO NOT WANT TO and in fact will carve up anyone who suggests otherwise. They HARSHLY criticize any officials that do move in that direction, lambaste any medical opinions on that and even censor them out of view.

there are absolutely financial incentives to call cases COVID versus something else, and for some people there are financial incentives to stay on unemployment.

but for the small business owners- there is life and death level motivation to open things up.

I won’t go into what different motives each group has, like media for example, because that seems self evident. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 29, 2020, 12:35:20 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 29, 2020, 12:31:40 PM
 

I won’t go into what different motives each group has, like media for example, because that seems self evident. 

Their motive would be non-financial in your mind? Interesting. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 29, 2020, 12:38:37 PM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 29, 2020, 12:09:20 PM
And my guess is that the shutdown of our economy will have a negative effect on far more people that the virus itself ever does.
This ^^^^^ we're fiddling while Rome burns.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 29, 2020, 12:52:16 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 29, 2020, 12:35:20 PM
Their motive would be non-financial in your mind? Interesting.
I would wager a strong majority would easily agree with that.  In fact, do you think the media’s motivations as to how they cover this are financial?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on April 29, 2020, 12:55:31 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 29, 2020, 12:52:16 PM
I would wager a strong majority would easily agree with that.  In fact, do you think the media’s motivations as to how they cover this are financial?
I'd be curious as to how NBC is making money by having no Stanley Cup Playoffs, Kentucky Derby or golf
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 29, 2020, 12:58:53 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 29, 2020, 12:52:16 PM
I would wager a strong majority would easily agree with that.  In fact, do you think the media’s motivations as to how they cover this are financial?
Certianly not financial. Those companies are taking a bath. 

It took me a second to read what you were getting at. Morning has been hectic. 

I think their motivation for the most part has been to respond to the interest of their consumers. But "the media" is such a vast and overarching thing, it accounts for a multitude of outlets whose motivations are both varied by outlet and even varied within an outlet itself. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 29, 2020, 01:03:25 PM
Quote from: ELA on April 29, 2020, 12:55:31 PM
I'd be curious as to how NBC is making money by having no Stanley Cup Playoffs, Kentucky Derby or golf
Exactly.  But their position is clear...those who want to reopen are wrong, careless, uneducated etc.    they host people that absolutely eviscerate protesters of the level of restrictions, even going so far as calling them personal names and making fun of them. And it is not in their financial interest to do this.   So why?  Do they feel that strongly that the virus should be the sole focus?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 29, 2020, 01:04:23 PM
I'm hearing through the medical/epidemiologist channels that South Korea's efforts at opening up their economy, on a limited basis, have resulted in an almost instantaneous x10 increase in COVID-19 cases. I can't be sure that's right, but that's what I've heard through semi-official channels. Will be interesting to see if that hits the news soon.

The distrust in this country is stunning (and intentionally cultivated). As noted, the medical community speaks with near unanimity about this thing, but our discourse has degraded so much that if a D or and R says something, the other side automatically assumes it is untrue and that it is politically motivated. And yet, we have to have a government and we generally agree that a democracy is the best way to implement said government, which guarantees that the people at its top will have political interests. I find this very sad. I have my own biases and strongly blame the "other" side, but...wow. It makes an effective response to a very real medical emergency extremely challenging.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 01:04:29 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 29, 2020, 12:58:53 PM
But "the media" is such a vast and overarching thing, it accounts for a multitude of outlets whose motivations are both varied by outlet and even varied within an outlet itself.
This is why I appreciate this site so much. People here actually take the time to filter and sift through data. I can't thank BWar enough for his analyses, for example.

What I learn here is far better than what I learn on TV, with everything being editorialized these days. Just about nobody reports just plain news anymore.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 29, 2020, 01:04:33 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 29, 2020, 12:31:40 PM
The whole world does?  I can randomly turn on the tv or go to the web to “ educate myself” in where we stand.
I assure you- the OVERWHELMING sources I find
in the “ normal “ media channels and social media DO NOT WANT TO and in fact will carve up anyone who suggests otherwise. They HARSHLY criticize any officials that do move in that direction, lambaste any medical opinions on that and even censor them out of view.
Do you really think that the world's leaders want to have their economies crash? Don't you think that the intense scrutiny on Sweden is in the hopes that their model actually provides a POSITIVE example for how we can start to reopen? 

Literally if this wasn't serious, any country which remained fully open in a "let 'er rip" manner would have huge advantages over their peers as far as economic performance over the next few months... Yet nobody is doing so. 

Again, the easiest explanation for why the world's governments have taken such strong steps is that they actually believe this virus is that dangerous.

If you want to reopen now, given the fact that even our own POTUS' administration created clear guidelines for the conditions necessary and the phases of reopening to do so safely, and those conditions haven't been met, you have to believe one of two things:




Quote
there are absolutely financial incentives to call cases COVID versus something else, and for some people there are financial incentives to stay on unemployment. 

I'm not saying there aren't financial incentives to call cases COVID-19 vs something else--at least in the US. But do you think those incentives are so incredible, and the moral fiber of the nation's coroners so weak, that this is a major problem? I.e. that we now have 60K deaths in this country attributed to COVID-19, but that the real number is FAR lower, i.e. 15K or 30K? Because unless the effect is massive, it doesn't change anything about the argument. 

I do agree there are financial incentives to remain on unemployment. For many of the poorest workers, they're actually earning more on unemployment than they were earning from their jobs. For many others, they're earning an income close enough to what they were earning to justify trying to stay home instead of going back to work. And if we reopen the economy, obviously we need to phase out the special federal unemployment benefits to force those people to return to their old jobs or look for new ones. But what does that statement have to do with the argument of whether it's SAFE to reopen the economy?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 01:12:14 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on April 29, 2020, 01:04:23 PM
It makes an effective response to a very real medical emergency extremely challenging.

I don't know if there ever could be an effective response with this thing.

Do almost nothing, like Sweden? We don't know. Total lockdown, like Spain? We don't know. Stay at home, like us?

We don't know what works, because nothing really has worked, that we know of.

Should we have shut down when the first case was known in January? The WHO said no. Should we have shut down in February, when things started going worse? Anthony Fauci and many others said no.

Fast-forward to today, and we have the blame game.

The reality is that there is nobody to blame, except the F'ing Chinese Communist Party.

Period.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 01:14:22 PM
You know what would be bad? Bad would be if this topic made it to 2000 pages. 

God, I hope it doesn't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 01:15:32 PM
Most opinions in the US get formed based on what Trump says, or didn't say.  Most meaning 60% or so.  30% lap it up and 30% automatically discount it.  There is little to no thought about any of it.

A fairly fancy seafood restaurant near us has a sign up "NOW OPEN!".  That is the first I have seen.  

https://www.theoceanaire.com/location/atlanta-ga/ (https://www.theoceanaire.com/location/atlanta-ga/)

Our local favorite place where we know folks is doing a top to bottom cleaning and painting and scrubbing and they told me they will open May 14.  The wife noted that Mother's Day is May 10, I imagine a lot of places will try and make that date.

Every other place around us is still take out only.  

We walked over to the Midtown Butcher Shop and I got two NY Strips, came to $50.  They appear to be doing a LOT of business.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 01:19:58 PM
The wife has a close friend who lives in Sweden, and I chat with her on FB from time to time.  It is NOT TRUE that Sweden is doing "almost nothing", at all.  They are doing relatively little by fiat, but the Swedes are doing MOST of what we're doing here.  The general plan is not much different in reality, it's just more voluntary.

They are experiencing higher rates than Finland and Denmark and they do have more social interactions that could spread this S.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 29, 2020, 01:21:45 PM
It isn't the same everywhere, it isn't the case that nothing has worked. What is the case is that social distancing has saved lives, and that places that implemented it earlier are doing better than places that didn't. And places that didn't implement it early, but were early victims of the virus, like Italy, have paid brutal consequences which have shut their economies down every bit as much as ours.

The medical and scientific community seem nearly unanimous in how to approach this. Of course there are dissenters--there are in everything, including the scientific community--but the rage against what that community seems to believe is sound science is stunning. Political interest groups that have no background in medicine and science are working very hard to overrule the medical community's judgement on a medical issue. That is deeply concerning, but not as concerning as the willingness of our population to sign up to support those political groups.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 29, 2020, 01:22:03 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 29, 2020, 01:04:33 PM
Do you really think that the world's leaders want to have their economies crash? Don't you think that the intense scrutiny on Sweden is in the hopes that their model actually provides a POSITIVE example for how we can start to reopen?

Literally if this wasn't serious, any country which remained fully open in a "let 'er rip" manner would have huge advantages over their peers as far as economic performance over the next few months... Yet nobody is doing so.

Again, the easiest explanation for why the world's governments have taken such strong steps is that they actually believe this virus is that dangerous.

If you want to reopen now, given the fact that even our own POTUS' administration created clear guidelines for the conditions necessary and the phases of reopening to do so safely, and those conditions haven't been met, you have to believe one of two things:

  • The virus isn't as serious as stated, and all of the world's epidemiologists who believed these significant controls were necessary to prevent enormous loss of life are wrong.
  • That enormous loss of life isn't a big deal and people should just suck it up and deal with it so we don't have any economic slowdown.



I'm not saying there aren't financial incentives to call cases COVID-19 vs something else--at least in the US. But do you think those incentives are so incredible, and the moral fiber of the nation's coroners so weak, that this is a major problem? I.e. that we now have 60K deaths in this country attributed to COVID-19, but that the real number is FAR lower, i.e. 15K or 30K? Because unless the effect is massive, it doesn't change anything about the argument.

I do agree there are financial incentives to remain on unemployment. For many of the poorest workers, they're actually earning more on unemployment than they were earning from their jobs. For many others, they're earning an income close enough to what they were earning to justify trying to stay home instead of going back to work. And if we reopen the economy, obviously we need to phase out the special federal unemployment benefits to force those people to return to their old jobs or look for new ones. But what does that statement have to do with the argument of whether it's
SAFE to reopen the economy?


No. I specifically don’t think world leaders want that.  That’s why I specifically refer only to this country.

as far as financial motivation- I am merely pointing out the obvious- and agreeing with what many here have said- it is very challenging to trust the data. $13000 reimbursement to a hospital is not the same as a COVID use of a ventilator which pays $39000. 
as for those making more on unemployment- I simply point that out because it is a reasonable assumption they are not the ones protesting.  which means those protesting are likely in grave danger financially- and do not deserve to be treated with such arrogance and disdain by the media, and talking heads- as if their point of view is outrageous.  Their point of view- which seems to be that the restrictions are too severe in some locations and/or they need to unwind them faster- is very reasonable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 29, 2020, 01:22:58 PM
I really don't get all of the conspiracy stuff.

Do I think China lied about their numbers?  Sure I do.  That's pretty well documented.

Do I think that China's lack of safety regulations probably played a part in this virus transmitting to humans?  Looks like it.

Do I think the US was woefully unprepared for a pandemic as far as economic, medical, and public response?  Absolutely.  But so were a lot of other countries.  Learn from it and move on.

Do I think that China tanked the worlds economy and their own for... reasons? - No, and I have seen zero evidence that supports this weird theory.

Do I think this virus "escaped from a lab?" No, that's ridiculous nonsense and a quick Google search will bring up quite a few peer reviewed scientific articles on why that isn't the case.

Do I think that somehow this virus was started in China to bring down Donald Trump? No, that's horse patooey. 

Pandemics have happened before, and they will happen again.  Sometimes sh!t happens.  That's it.  There is no WHY.  It just happened.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 29, 2020, 01:25:13 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on April 29, 2020, 01:21:45 PM
It isn't the same everywhere, it isn't the case that nothing has worked. What is the case is that social distancing has saved lives, and that places that implemented it earlier are doing better than places that didn't. And places that didn't implement it early, but were early victims of the virus, like Italy, have paid brutal consequences which have shut their economies down every bit as much as ours.

The medical and scientific community seem nearly unanimous in how to approach this. Of course there are dissenters--there are in everything, including the scientific community--but the rage against what that community seems to believe is sound science is stunning. Political interest groups that have no background in medicine and science are working very hard to overrule the medical community's judgement on a medical issue. That is deeply concerning, but not as concerning as the willingness of our population to sign up to support those political groups.
Amen

At least to the political part.  There are dissenting voices in the medical community- but they are ignored or sensors out.  
The bigger shock to me is our failure to customize our approach.  

If you just isolate NYC and focus a ton of resources in them ( after all- according to virtually all media and talking heads, the USA has more cases and deaths than any country- so that means NYC is ground zero for the world), as well as the most vulnerable ( elderly and those with underlying health issues) not only do the numbers improve dramatically, it opens the possibility that these lock downs are not needed for most of the general population. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 29, 2020, 01:32:04 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 01:15:32 PM
Most opinions in the US get formed based on what Trump says, or didn't say.  Most meaning 60% or so.  30% lap it up and 30% automatically discount it.  There is little to no thought about any of it.

A fairly fancy seafood restaurant near us has a sign up "NOW OPEN!".  That is the first I have seen. 

https://www.theoceanaire.com/location/atlanta-ga/ (https://www.theoceanaire.com/location/atlanta-ga/)

Our local favorite place where we know folks is doing a top to bottom cleaning and painting and scrubbing and they told me they will open May 14.  The wife noted that Mother's Day is May 10, I imagine a lot of places will try and make that date.

Every other place around us is still take out only. 

We walked over to the Midtown Butcher Shop and I got two NY Strips, came to $50.  They appear to be doing a LOT of business.


the Oceanaires here in the midwest are one of our best options for very good seafood

I hope those strips were 2 lbs a piece 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 01:33:40 PM
I think it POSSIBLE it escaped from that lab.  It is conceivable they were studying zoonoses and this one got out.  It could have been an accident.

It is also POSSIBLE it got into humans through the markets, pangolins or whatever.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 29, 2020, 01:35:45 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on April 29, 2020, 01:21:45 PM
It isn't the same everywhere, it isn't the case that nothing has worked. What is the case is that social distancing has saved lives, and that places that implemented it earlier are doing better than places that didn't. And places that didn't implement it early, but were early victims of the virus, like Italy, have paid brutal consequences which have shut their economies down every bit as much as ours.

The medical and scientific community seem nearly unanimous in how to approach this. Of course there are dissenters--there are in everything, including the scientific community--but the rage against what that community seems to believe is sound science is stunning. Political interest groups that have no background in medicine and science are working very hard to overrule the medical community's judgement on a medical issue. That is deeply concerning, but not as concerning as the willingness of our population to sign up to support those political groups.
Yesterday our township supervisor, in writing, said that "science is BS". 

There has been a long campaign against science for awhile now.  It isn't just the crazy fundamentalists, either.  Regular people have suddenly stopped vaccinating their kids.  Something like 35% of the country doesn't believe in man made climate change.  Baseless fears against GMOs run rampant.  etc. etc. etc.

You can't use facts and logic to change people's mind, either.  Because as evidence mounts against their viewpoint they will turn to conspiracy theories rather than admit they were just wrong.

Someone asked earlier what South Korea did that was so effective?  Culturally, they actually believe experts in the field, prepped appropriately, and then listened to their advice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 01:36:06 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 29, 2020, 01:32:04 PM
the Oceanaires here in the midwest are one of our best options for very good seafood

I hope those strips were 2 lbs a piece
We went to Oceanaire once.  I thought it very over priced for rather mediocre service and menu items.  Our wine server was clearly clueless about wine.  They were out of the one I ordered and the one he suggested was not remotely the same thing, and he said he would charge me the same price, but the one he suggested was $2 cheaper.

He was rather annoyed when I pointed this out to him.  To me, the place seemed pretentious and not up to standards for that price range.

The steaks were $21/lb.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 29, 2020, 01:40:59 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 01:04:29 PM
This is why I appreciate this site so much. People here actually take the time to filter and sift through data. I can't thank BWar enough for his analyses, for example.

What I learn here is far better than what I learn on TV, with everything being editorialized these days. Just about nobody reports just plain news anymore.
I was reading a book about the history of NY that reminded me that in truth, reporting has always had its issues, just like everything else (it did used to be less loud). 

Some interesting history about how an unelected power player was boosted by a newspaper corps that bought into his mythology and had the first crack in his empire because of a rather small tempest in a teapot story. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 29, 2020, 01:42:16 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 01:14:22 PM
You know what would be bad? Bad would be if this topic made it to 2000 pages.

God, I hope it doesn't.
I'm so excited for when it gets locked for good. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 29, 2020, 01:44:05 PM
my experience in Minneapolis is much different and much better

definitely NOT the place to get a steak in Minneapolis

"Reader's Choice "Best Seafood Restaurant" - Mpls-StPaul Magazine, (2007, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2018)

"Best Of" Awards, Best Seafood Restaurant - Minnesota Monthly, (2007, 2008, 2009)

Critic's Choice "Best Seafood" - Mpls-StPaul Magazine, (2008, 2009, 2010, 2011)

Reader's Poll - 1st Place "Seafood", 3rd Place "Service", 3rd Place "Special Occasion" - Mpls-StPaul Magazine, (2008)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 29, 2020, 01:49:52 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 29, 2020, 01:22:03 PM

as far as financial motivation- I am merely pointing out the obvious- and agreeing with what many here have said- it is very challenging to trust the data. $13000 reimbursement to a hospital is not the same as a COVID use of a ventilator which pays $39000. 
as for those making more on unemployment- I simply point that out because it is a reasonable assumption they are not the ones protesting.  which means those protesting are likely in grave danger financially- and do not deserve to be treated with such arrogance and disdain by the media, and talking heads- as if their point of view is outrageous.  Their point of view- which seems to be that the restrictions are too severe in some locations and/or they need to unwind them faster- is very reasonable.

So my question to the first part is if you have to punt on a huge proportion of non-COVID related treatment, are you actually coming out ahead?

And to the bolded part, do we have a sense of how many folks are making more on unemployment? Is that a large group? My gut would be no, for obvious reasons, but I'd imagine the receive a lot of the attention. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 01:52:37 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on April 29, 2020, 01:21:45 PM
It isn't the same everywhere, it isn't the case that nothing has worked. What is the case is that social distancing has saved lives, and that places that implemented it earlier are doing better than places that didn't. And places that didn't implement it early, but were early victims of the virus, like Italy, have paid brutal consequences which have shut their economies down every bit as much as ours.

The medical and scientific community seem nearly unanimous in how to approach this. Of course there are dissenters--there are in everything, including the scientific community--but the rage against what that community seems to believe is sound science is stunning. Political interest groups that have no background in medicine and science are working very hard to overrule the medical community's judgement on a medical issue. That is deeply concerning, but not as concerning as the willingness of our population to sign up to support those political groups.
How the heck can you plainly state this as if fact? We're 6 months in and there are no answers. We know nothing. Absolutely nothing.

As for the social distancing, I agree it has saved lives. For NOW.

We'll see how many it's saved in a year. Remember, social distancing was not originally about preventing infections or deaths. It was meant to spread them out, so as to not overwhelm our hospitals.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 01:54:38 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 29, 2020, 01:22:58 PM
I really don't get all of the conspiracy stuff.

Do I think China lied about their numbers?  Sure I do.  That's pretty well documented.

Do I think that China's lack of safety regulations probably played a part in this virus transmitting to humans?  Looks like it.

Do I think the US was woefully unprepared for a pandemic as far as economic, medical, and public response?  Absolutely.  But so were a lot of other countries.  Learn from it and move on.

Do I think that China tanked the worlds economy and their own for... reasons? - No, and I have seen zero evidence that supports this weird theory.

Do I think this virus "escaped from a lab?" No, that's ridiculous nonsense and a quick Google search will bring up quite a few peer reviewed scientific articles on why that isn't the case.

Do I think that somehow this virus was started in China to bring down Donald Trump? No, that's horse patooey. 

Pandemics have happened before, and they will happen again.  Sometimes sh!t happens.  That's it.  There is no WHY.  It just happened.
Post bookmarked for future reference.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 29, 2020, 02:00:56 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 01:52:37 PM
How the heck can you plainly state this as if fact? We're 6 months in and there are no answers. We know nothing. Absolutely nothing.

As for the social distancing, I agree it has saved lives. For NOW.

We'll see how many it's saved in a year. Remember, social distancing was not originally about preventing infections or deaths. It was meant to spread them out, so as to not overwhelm our hospitals.
Because it is one--as you yourself confirm. Flattening the curve while we work out better ways to address this, up to an including finding a cure/vaccine, is effective. Yes, it is about spreading them out--slowing them down--while we find better solutions. Particularly with the evidence that having the disease doesn't prevent reinfection, "ripping off the band-aid" appears to not be a viable solution.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 02:07:50 PM
Distancing CAN limit the overall death toll.  For one thing, not over whelming hospitals is a good thing for that.  For another, it should reduce R naught significantly.  In a country like France or Italy, when you meet someone you do the kissy kissy thing (or did) if you know them.  Cut that vector and you cut the spread, for all time, if you get to a point where the infection rate is very low.  

The numbers are coming down in Italy.  They are starting to reopen some aspects of life, or loosen the regulations.  

And we do know with good certainty some things about this disease.  It is much tougher on old people than typical influenza.  It spreads easier.  A key unknown is reinfection rate, that one is scary to me.  We have some hopeful news on remdesivir today for treatment, but it isn't a clear cure.  The stock market is up 2-3% today, it's about where it was a year ago.  That is not signaling a long term economic collapse (though obviously it can be wrong).

We may look back and realize it has become a "part of life" (and death).  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 29, 2020, 02:08:42 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 29, 2020, 01:35:45 PM
Yesterday our township supervisor, in writing, said that "science is BS". 

There has been a long campaign against science for awhile now.  It isn't just the crazy fundamentalists, either.  Regular people have suddenly stopped vaccinating their kids.  Something like 35% of the country doesn't believe in man made climate change.  Baseless fears against GMOs run rampant.  etc. etc. etc.

You can't use facts and logic to change people's mind, either.  Because as evidence mounts against their viewpoint they will turn to conspiracy theories rather than admit they were just wrong.

Someone asked earlier what South Korea did that was so effective?  Culturally, they actually believe experts in the field, prepped appropriately, and then listened to their advice.
I am not a fan of those who ignore science- and you gave some good examples of people that do. But my hope is that anyone who thinks we should be reopening the economy based upon a risk reward equation should not be thought of as a conspiracy theorist at all.  these are people that completely understand the science and think they can trust themselves to execute the things they need to do and that the risk reward equation now points more towards opening things up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 02:12:55 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on April 29, 2020, 02:00:56 PM
Because it is one--as you yourself confirm. Flattening the curve while we work out better ways to address this, up to an including finding a cure/vaccine, is effective. Yes, it is about spreading them out--slowing them down--while we find better solutions. Particularly with the evidence that having the disease doesn't prevent reinfection, "ripping off the band-aid" appears to not be a viable solution.
There is no vaccine, and may never be.

Don't hold your breath for an effective vaccine for SARS, MERS, Ebola, or this damn thing.

I'd hate to lose you as a friend here.

Now, treatments look more and more encouraging. But a vaccine? Color me discouraged. In fact, color me discouraged on all of this shit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 02:15:50 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 29, 2020, 01:42:16 PM
I'm so excited for when it gets locked for good.
I just hope I'm around to do the honors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 02:19:48 PM
https://www.businessinsider.com/monkeys-given-new-oxford-vaccine-coronavirus-free-strong-exposure-encouraging-2020-4 (https://www.businessinsider.com/monkeys-given-new-oxford-vaccine-coronavirus-free-strong-exposure-encouraging-2020-4)

Six monkeys given a vaccine developed by the University of Oxford are said to be coronavirus-free 28 days after sustained exposure to the virus.

The result is a promising early sign for the vaccine, which is also undergoing human trials. A working human version, however, remains months away even in the best-case scenario.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 29, 2020, 02:30:19 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on April 29, 2020, 02:00:56 PM
Because it is one--as you yourself confirm. Flattening the curve while we work out better ways to address this, up to an including finding a cure/vaccine, is effective. Yes, it is about spreading them out--slowing them down--while we find better solutions. Particularly with the evidence that having the disease doesn't prevent reinfection, "ripping off the band-aid" appears to not be a viable solution.

I don't believe this is the logical conclusion to that problem, at all.

If there is no conferred immunity, then there's no point in our attempting to stop the spread.  Ripping off the band-aid is precisely and exactly what would be warranted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 02:32:10 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 02:19:48 PM
https://www.businessinsider.com/monkeys-given-new-oxford-vaccine-coronavirus-free-strong-exposure-encouraging-2020-4 (https://www.businessinsider.com/monkeys-given-new-oxford-vaccine-coronavirus-free-strong-exposure-encouraging-2020-4)

Six monkeys given a vaccine developed by the University of Oxford are said to be coronavirus-free 28 days after sustained exposure to the virus.

The result is a promising early sign for the vaccine, which is also undergoing human trials. A working human version, however, remains months away even in the best-case scenario.


Is this article about SARS? MERS? Ebola? There are promising early (late?) signs for those, I heard/read.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 02:39:10 PM
The article discusses the various potential COVID-19 vaccine developments.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 29, 2020, 02:49:55 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 01:54:38 PM
Post bookmarked for future reference.
If I’m wrong I’m not afraid to admit it. I may not like it. I may be in denial for a minute, but I eventually will change my mind if the evidence shows I am wrong. 

with that said, there is no evidence to prove your theory right now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 29, 2020, 02:57:04 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 01:54:38 PM
Post bookmarked for future reference.
And here's a link for you to read:

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/04/23/841729646/virus-researchers-cast-doubt-on-theory-of-coronavirus-lab-accident (https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/04/23/841729646/virus-researchers-cast-doubt-on-theory-of-coronavirus-lab-accident)

Regardless, genetic analysis shows the virus began to spread sometime in the fall or winter of 2019, says Robert Garry, a microbiologist at Tulane University. Those same analyses refuted an earlier theory (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9) that the virus was genetically engineered in a laboratory. Garry says the reason is simple — the virus infects people in a way that scientists had never seen before: "The virus is just really too good at what it's doing," he says. "No human using a computer could do this. This is very clearly a natural process that occurred." In addition, he says, there are no signs of human genetic modification in the virus's code.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 02:59:55 PM
As I noted, it is very POSSIBLE this is a naturally occurring virus being studied at that lab and got out by accident.  It was not bioengineered, almost certainly.

That doesn't mean it didn't originate in that lab.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 03:14:34 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 29, 2020, 02:49:55 PM
If I’m wrong I’m not afraid to admit it. I may not like it. I may be in denial for a minute, but I eventually will change my mind if the evidence shows I am wrong.

with that said, there is no evidence to prove your theory right now.
Except, China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 29, 2020, 03:16:32 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 02:12:55 PM
I'd hate to lose you as a friend here.

Exceptionally unlikely.

I'm not saying there will be a vaccine (though of course hope springs eternal), but flattening the curve allows time to try (and to learn other ways to limit the damage).

Those who are advocating keeping the stay-at-home orders in place for now aren't opposed to re-opening the economy/society; they are cautious and want to do so in the best way possible. In California, where policy makers have taken an earlier and more aggressive approach to shutting down, they have always--and continue to--talked about how to reopen as soon as safely possible. SFIrish is privy to these conversations (she's not a decision maker in them) and they are robust and meaningful. They want to reopen, but they want to do so in the best way possible. It's a false dichotomy to talk about people who want to keep stay-at-home versus those who want to reopen.

Unfortunately, a large portion of the largest re-openers have also been the same ones calling the virus a hoax and suggesting it was blown way out of proportion, which the death numbers show plainly wasn't the case. No, not everyone seeking large-scale reopening is a conspiracy theorist (and I know many of the people here are deep and smart independent thinkers), but a great deal of the information spread in favor of removing the restrictions originates with the conspiracy crowd.

The suggestion that the epidemiology crowd is using the pandemic primarily as a profit center is conspiratorial, to put it mildly. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 29, 2020, 03:19:20 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 29, 2020, 01:22:03 PM
No. I specifically don’t think world leaders want that.  That’s why I specifically refer only to this country.

But that's the point. You're arguing that THIS country should open up, based on I presume the assumption that this virus isn't as bad as claimed and that it's being overhyped by those in charge here [and the media] in order to force the economy to remain closed. I presume there is a belief amongst some that this is being done to damage POTUS' reelection chances?

Yet what I'm saying is that nearly universally across the globe, governments have instituted these policies at great economic cost to themselves. And that the most logical explanation for this is that the stay-at-home orders are actually warranted by their sincere study of the evidence. Because if the evidence was that this virus is not dangerous, I think several countries would be trying to take advantage of those who overreacted.

The fact that basically none have done so, only Sweden (and even then they're doing a lot more than they're mandating), suggests that a lockdown isn't based upon partisan politics and/or financial incentives from medicare.


Quote
as far as financial motivation- I am merely pointing out the obvious- and agreeing with what many here have said- it is very challenging to trust the data. $13000 reimbursement to a hospital is not the same as a COVID use of a ventilator which pays $39000.  

as for those making more on unemployment- I simply point that out because it is a reasonable assumption they are not the ones protesting.  which means those protesting are likely in grave danger financially- and do not deserve to be treated with such arrogance and disdain by the media, and talking heads- as if their point of view is outrageous.  Their point of view- which seems to be that the restrictions are too severe in some locations and/or they need to unwind them faster- is very reasonable. 
Agreed. Those who are poorest and are getting an extra $2400/mo in unemployment aren't likely to be protesting.

But again, media portrayal of the protestors aside, a lockdown in the face of a global pandemic is either prudent public policy or it's not. There's no point to get into the debate of what "the media" says when we on this forum can discuss the actual evidence justifying or not justifying a lockdown. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 03:20:12 PM
The conspiracy notions about this are really burgeoning.  It's to be expected I think.

Our own Area 51 site here is replete with them, which also is expected.

You guys would love it there.  Not really.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 29, 2020, 03:22:47 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 29, 2020, 01:35:45 PM
Someone asked earlier what South Korea did that was so effective?  Culturally, they actually believe experts in the field, prepped appropriately, and then listened to their advice.
Same with Sweden. Sweden basically said "hey, this is serious, you should work from home, you should social distance, you should do all these things voluntarily because we don't want to mandate them", and the Swedes said "yeah, that sounds like a good idea..."

Whereas here in California, unless you physically close the beaches you get them swarmed when the weather gets hot like last weekend. 

Sweden has no "lockdown" but people mostly act like there is a lockdown, whereas in California we have a lockdown that people aren't respecting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 29, 2020, 03:23:41 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 02:59:55 PM
As I noted, it is very POSSIBLE this is a naturally occurring virus being studied at that lab and got out by accident.  It was not bioengineered, almost certainly.

That doesn't mean it didn't originate in that lab.
"puts on Pittsburgh hat"

Yinz obvs didn't read the article.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 29, 2020, 03:25:14 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 29, 2020, 01:40:59 PM
I was reading a book about the history of NY that reminded me that in truth, reporting has always had its issues, just like everything else (it did used to be less loud).

Some interesting history about how an unelected power player was boosted by a newspaper corps that bought into his mythology and had the first crack in his empire because of a rather small tempest in a teapot story.
I recommend "The Chief", the biography of William Randolph Hearst. The man had a fascinating life. 

And yeah, he used his newspapers like a political weapon, after he had gained prominence in the newspaper business by being writing salacious stories appealing to readers' most base tastes, rather than trying to accurately report the news.

So no, none of this is new. What's most different today is how easy it is to bypass the media and get to original sources... But conversely how few people ever choose to do so. But I digress... :96:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 29, 2020, 03:31:04 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on April 29, 2020, 03:16:32 PM
Unfortunately, a large portion of the largest re-openers have also been the same ones calling the virus a hoax and suggesting it was blown way out of proportion, which the death numbers show plainly wasn't the case. No, not everyone seeking large-scale reopening is a conspiracy theorist (and I know many of the people here are deep and smart independent thinkers), but a great deal of the information spread in favor of removing the restrictions originates with the conspiracy crowd.

The suggestion that the epidemiology crowd is using the pandemic primarily as a profit center is conspiratorial, to put it mildly.
Except when you ask them they'll tell you that if you get hit by a bus but your spouse said you were complaining of a cough before you walked into traffic, the coroner will write "COVID-19" on your death certificate, so those death numbers are clearly not trustworthy. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 29, 2020, 03:32:12 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 29, 2020, 03:22:47 PM
Same with Sweden. Sweden basically said "hey, this is serious, you should work from home, you should social distance, you should do all these things voluntarily because we don't want to mandate them", and the Swedes said "yeah, that sounds like a good idea..."

Whereas here in California, unless you physically close the beaches you get them swarmed when the weather gets hot like last weekend.

Sweden has no "lockdown" but people mostly act like there is a lockdown, whereas in California we have a lockdown that people aren't respecting.
Yup. And this explains a lot of the frustration with "draconian" measures here. The measures are aimed at stopping behavior. If our populace was more inclined to follow "guidelines" rather than rules, we would rely more on those guidelines.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 29, 2020, 03:33:04 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 29, 2020, 03:31:04 PM
Except when you ask them they'll tell you that if you get hit by a bus but your spouse said you were complaining of a cough before you walked into traffic, the coroner will write "COVID-19" on your death certificate, so those death numbers are clearly not trustworthy.
Please tell me you're being sarcastic...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 29, 2020, 03:47:21 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on April 29, 2020, 03:33:04 PM
Please tell me you're being sarcastic...
Only a little bit...

Again look at the people arguing about cause of death being "with COVID" instead of "from COVID", which has occurred in this very thread. There is a group--which happens to heavily overlap with the group advocating for reopening sooner rather than later--that argues that deaths are being inflated by being attributed to COVID when they believe it's unwarranted.

So they don't trust the death numbers. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 29, 2020, 03:48:45 PM
I don't trust politicians or media
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 03:50:35 PM
Was it in Italy, where numbers were released a bit back that said the vast majority of people who died from the virus had 3 or more other issues? Do we have any numbers for that here? Florida used to list co-conditions and travel, but they no longer do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 29, 2020, 03:53:35 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on April 29, 2020, 03:16:32 PM
Exceptionally unlikely.

I'm not saying there will be a vaccine (though of course hope springs eternal), but flattening the curve allows time to try (and to learn other ways to limit the damage).

Those who are advocating keeping the stay-at-home orders in place for now aren't opposed to re-opening the economy/society; they are cautious and want to do so in the best way possible. In California, where policy makers have taken an earlier and more aggressive approach to shutting down, they have always--and continue to--talked about how to reopen as soon as safely possible. SFIrish is privy to these conversations (she's not a decision maker in them) and they are robust and meaningful. They want to reopen, but they want to do so in the best way possible. It's a false dichotomy to talk about people who want to keep stay-at-home versus those who want to reopen.

Unfortunately, a large portion of the largest re-openers have also been the same ones calling the virus a hoax and suggesting it was blown way out of proportion, which the death numbers show plainly wasn't the case. No, not everyone seeking large-scale reopening is a conspiracy theorist (and I know many of the people here are deep and smart independent thinkers), but a great deal of the information spread in favor of removing the restrictions originates with the conspiracy crowd.

The suggestion that the epidemiology crowd is using the pandemic primarily as a profit center is conspiratorial, to put it mildly.
I disagree.  I don’t hear anyone calling it a hoax. the re- openers want to open it carefully, cautiously. 

people just disagree on pace and degree.  You nor I know for sure if one side is right. But both sides are basing it on science and portraying something different is part of the problem.

the football analogy would be: everyone knows the score, down and distance.  One team wants to down the ball and punt.  The other wants to throw a well designed pass.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 29, 2020, 04:02:27 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 29, 2020, 03:19:20 PM
But that's the point. You're arguing that THIS country should open up, based on I presume the assumption that this virus isn't as bad as claimed and that it's being overhyped by those in charge here [and the media] in order to force the economy to remain closed. I presume there is a belief amongst some that this is being done to damage POTUS' reelection chances?

Yet what I'm saying is that nearly universally across the globe, governments have instituted these policies at great economic cost to themselves. And that the most logical explanation for this is that the stay-at-home orders are actually warranted by their sincere study of the evidence. Because if the evidence was that this virus is not dangerous, I think several countries would be trying to take advantage of those who overreacted.

The fact that basically none have done so, only Sweden (and even then they're doing a lot more than they're mandating), suggests that a lockdown isn't based upon partisan politics and/or financial incentives from medicare.

Agreed. Those who are poorest and are getting an extra $2400/mo in unemployment aren't likely to be protesting.

But again, media portrayal of the protestors aside, a lockdown in the face of a global pandemic is either prudent public policy or it's not. There's no point to get into the debate of what "the media" says when we on this forum can discuss the actual evidence justifying or not justifying a lockdown.

Wow. I must just be a rotten communicator
Or- you’re putting words in my mouth. If someone thinks we should start to carefully open the country back up does not mean that they think the lockdown was not prudent public policy. It means that given the data the smarter play for the rest of the country to benefit the most in the long term, and their opinion, is to open things up more quickly than we are. Again the alleged reason for lockdown was to flatten the curve but you have to admit the goalposts keep moving.
and whether or not you agree I think it is fairly obvious to just about everybody that the media does have an agenda here and it does relate to trying to position this as a humongous negative against the current administration. Why else would they start censoring opposing opinions and only cover one narrative from one side?  And before you dispute that, I understand there are many following that narrative that have openly admitted publicly that that is their narrative and that is a strategy

I will add that it’s refreshing that you were talking about the world. Most of what you see and hear, again from the media and Talking Heads, only references other parts of the world if it points to their narrative. Otherwise they would have you believe that this is a United States problem only.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 29, 2020, 04:04:41 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 29, 2020, 03:47:21 PM
Only a little bit...

Again look at the people arguing about cause of death being "with COVID" instead of "from COVID", which has occurred in this very thread. There is a group--which happens to heavily overlap with the group advocating for reopening sooner rather than later--that argues that deaths are being inflated by being attributed to COVID when they believe it's unwarranted.

So they don't trust the death numbers.
It is not some conspiracy theory.  The death numbers almost have to be inflated. But they are still daunting beyond belief. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 29, 2020, 04:25:59 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 29, 2020, 04:02:27 PM
Wow. I must just be a rotten communicator
Or- you’re putting words in my mouth. If someone thinks we should start to carefully open the country back up does not mean that they think the lockdown was not prudent public policy. It means that given the data the smarter play for the rest of the country to benefit the most in the long term, and their opinion, is to open things up more quickly than we are. Again the alleged reason for lockdown was to flatten the curve but you have to admit the goalposts keep moving.

I'm not saying you're a bad communicator... But you've come off VERY aggressive in this thread. I will tell you honestly that I didn't get the sense that you were talking about carefully opening the country back up as much as it seemed like you thought we needed to end this lockdown NOW. Maybe I read into it though...

Yes, it was to flatten the curve. And the administration released their guidelines for opening up parts of the country, in phases, based upon meeting certain conditions regarding the actual case rates (showing declining trend over a 14-day period). To my knowledge, those conditions haven't yet been met. 


Quote
and whether or not you agree I think it is fairly obvious to just about everybody that the media does have an agenda here and it does relate to trying to position this as a humongous negative against the current administration. Why else would they start censoring opposing opinions and only cover one narrative from one side?  And before you dispute that, I understand there are many following that narrative that have openly admitted publicly that that is their narrative and that is a strategy
Note: I heard absolutely zero pushback when the administration released their guidelines for reopening. I heard absolutely zero pushback when my governor (Newsom) held a press conference announcing his framework towards reopening. The media wants to reopen the economy carefully too... Everyone's waiting for good news here!

There was a lot of negative pushback when the very day after his administration released quite reasonable guidelines for reopening the country, POTUS was tweeting "LIBERATE" to various states to embolden the protestors in states which absolutely had NOT met the conditions his own administration was suggesting were necessary to start reopening. There was a lot of negative pushback when he suggested doctors "look into" injection of disinfectant as a way to treat COVID. 

Trust me, the media doesn't have to make him look bad; he's doing that well enough without their help. 



Quote
I will add that it’s refreshing that you were talking about the world. Most of what you see and hear, again from the media and Talking Heads, only references other parts of the world if it points to their narrative. Otherwise they would have you believe that this is a United States problem only.

I don't really watch any media. So I don't really see and hear much of what they have to say. Most of it is worthless.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 04:45:33 PM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/)

Free to view, I thought it interesting, in case you ever get "simulitis".
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 29, 2020, 04:48:23 PM
I didn't get any of that stimulus. 
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 04:45:33 PM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/)

Free to view, I thought it interesting, in case you ever get "simulitis".

Yeah, I didn't get any of that gubment stimulus. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 04:53:46 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 29, 2020, 04:48:23 PM
I didn't get any of that stimulus.
Yeah, I didn't get any of that gubment stimulus.
You did in reverse then.  This was a wealth transfer from Fairy Land to those who qualified, and folks who don't get it in effect got negative wealth transfer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 29, 2020, 05:13:49 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 29, 2020, 04:25:59 PM
I'm not saying you're a bad communicator... But you've come off VERY aggressive in this thread. I will tell you honestly that I didn't get the sense that you were talking about carefully opening the country back up as much as it seemed like you thought we needed to end this lockdown NOW. Maybe I read into it though...

Yes, it was to flatten the curve. And the administration released their guidelines for opening up parts of the country, in phases, based upon meeting certain conditions regarding the actual case rates (showing declining trend over a 14-day period). To my knowledge, those conditions haven't yet been met.

Note: I heard absolutely zero pushback when the administration released their guidelines for reopening. I heard absolutely zero pushback when my governor (Newsom) held a press conference announcing his framework towards reopening. The media wants to reopen the economy carefully too... Everyone's waiting for good news here!

There was a lot of negative pushback when the very day after his administration released quite reasonable guidelines for reopening the country, POTUS was tweeting "LIBERATE" to various states to embolden the protestors in states which absolutely had NOT met the conditions his own administration was suggesting were necessary to start reopening. There was a lot of negative pushback when he suggested doctors "look into" injection of disinfectant as a way to treat COVID.

Trust me, the media doesn't have to make him look bad; he's doing that well enough without their help.



I don't really watch any media. So I don't really see and hear much of what they have to say. Most of it is worthless.

We are close to the same page. 
I am listening to Governor DeSantis right now and he is very impressive.  He is talking about facts versus fear.  And his plan makes sense.  I will assure you- he will be unfairly criticized.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 05:19:15 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 29, 2020, 04:48:23 PM
I didn't get any of that stimulus.
Yeah, I didn't get any of that gubment stimulus.
Nor did I, although I was able to get the SBA PPP approved yesterday for my company (for my employees, actually).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 29, 2020, 05:26:28 PM
I haven't gotten my check because I used TurboTax last year.  And there's really no one to contact to find any info out.  The IRS site is useless.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 29, 2020, 05:26:43 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 05:19:15 PM
Nor did I, although I was able to get the SBA PPP approved yesterday for my company (for my employees, actually).
Cool, hope you're able to stay above water through all of this.

My wife's previous employer was working on it but not sure what happened.  Suffice to say, it didn't come quick enough to prevent them from laying off.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 29, 2020, 05:32:34 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 05:19:15 PM
Nor did I, although I was able to get the SBA PPP approved yesterday for my company (for my employees, actually).
Good!  The system for these loans has been overwhelmed for us in banking.  We literally have people working through the night. 

sadly, many small businesses that need this to survive- but the money will run out again. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 29, 2020, 05:45:33 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 04:53:46 PM
You did in reverse then.  This was a wealth transfer from Fairy Land to those who qualified, and folks who don't get it in effect got negative wealth transfer.

Oh I'm aware.


The good news is that we were fortunate enough to not need it with the incomes we had previously.

The bad news is, unemployment benefits are pretty minimal compared to the lost wages and benefits from her previous job, so this year we won't be so fortunate...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 29, 2020, 05:48:54 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 29, 2020, 05:13:49 PM
We are close to the same page. 
I am listening to Governor DeSantis right now and he is very impressive.  He is talking about facts versus fear.  And his plan makes sense.  I will assure you- he will be unfairly criticized.
Looking at the NY Times, Florida actually appears to be on a declining 14-day trend in cases: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/florida-coronavirus-cases.html

 (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/florida-coronavirus-cases.html)That's actually the first step in the administration's plan to start reopening...

Georgia reopened despite no such trend. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 29, 2020, 05:51:00 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 02:19:48 PM

The result is a promising early sign for the vaccine, which is also undergoing human trials. A working human version, however, remains months away even in the best-case scenario.
I don't know anything anymore BUT if that is accurate,they're not going to faff around and wait for committees and bureaucrats to OK it.If the virus is that henious physicians will demand the vaccine be made available
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 05:55:25 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 29, 2020, 05:26:28 PM
I haven't gotten my check because I used TurboTax last year.  And there's really no one to contact to find any info out.  The IRS site is useless. 
I used TT and got the deposit made.  I don't know why using TT would alter that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 29, 2020, 05:56:24 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 29, 2020, 05:48:54 PM
Looking at the NY Times, Florida actually appears to be on a declining 14-day trend in cases: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/florida-coronavirus-cases.html

 (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/florida-coronavirus-cases.html)That's actually the first step in the administration's plan to start reopening...

Georgia reopened despite no such trend.

Yes, he is following the guidelines to a high degree.  He is actually being more strict on some things in phase 1, like gyms and bars. He is being less strict on elective surgeries, allowing more than just outpatient, because there is tremendous excess capacity. 

What I like the most is he shared tons of data, as well data illustrating the huge gaps between what was projected for Florida versus what has actually happened. He also is treating the 3 counties ( Dave, Broward and Palm Beach) where the numbers are highest, in consultation with Government leaders there, much more strictly.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 29, 2020, 05:57:06 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 29, 2020, 05:51:00 PM
I don't know anything anymore BUT if that is accurate,they're not going to faff around and wait for committees and bureaucrats to OK it.If the virus is that henious physicians will demand the vaccine be made available
And it is already being portrayed negatively by media.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 05:59:06 PM
I think GA responded because of hospital capacity, not Federal guidelines.  The fear that our capacities would be over whelmed didn't come to pass, fortunately.

The other reason is that the UE fund is going to run dry and fairly soon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 29, 2020, 06:02:17 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 29, 2020, 05:56:24 PM
Yes, he is following the guidelines to a high degree.  He is actually being more strict on some things in phase 1, like gyms and bars. He is being less strict on elective surgeries, allowing more than just outpatient, because there is tremendous excess capacity.

What I like the most is he shared tons of data, as well data illustrating the huge gaps between what was projected for Florida versus what has actually happened. He also is treating the 3 counties ( Dave, Broward and Palm Beach) where the numbers are highest, in consultation with Government leaders there, much more strictly. 
Good for him. 

I'm not going to opine on what the media might say, but it certainly sounds like he's trying to do this the right way. 

Hopefully the residents of Florida don't go all "Florida Man" and F it up lol ;-)  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 06:09:22 PM
Can't wait to get down there. On the road... tomorrow morning!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 29, 2020, 06:10:24 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 29, 2020, 06:02:17 PM
Good for him.

I'm not going to opine on what the media might say, but it certainly sounds like he's trying to do this the right way.

Hopefully the residents of Florida don't go all "Florida Man" and F it up lol ;-) 
Me too LOL.  Where I am at, it has really improved.  When you go into a store, I would say 90% are wearing masks, and they are really keeping distance from each other.

for me, some restaurants will open but limited to either outdoor seating with distance between tables, or 25% capacity inside- but I will continue supporting local place via carry out or delivery, for a while yet. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 29, 2020, 06:10:29 PM
This was being discussed on one of the Purdue blogs--in a discussion of whether opening football games to students only, since they're on campus, could make sense.

But the discussion turned to a vaccine and whether one had ever been created for coronavirus. Someone highlighted that there ARE successful vaccines for coronavirus strains in animals.

It reminded me of the fact that when we brought the puppy home at the end of January, Coronavirus was already starting to be talked about, so we asked our vet about it at his first well check appt. She said that they don't really vaccinate dogs for it as the strains they were vaccinating for really died down about a decade ago or so. But it's not like coronavirus vaccines CAN'T exist.


I know work for a SARS vaccine died out because the virus didn't easily transmit so the infections burned out quickly and then disappeared. I think there's been some research into a vaccine for MERS, but it likewise doesn't have NEARLY the worldwide attention or impact that this does. 

So... Maybe a vaccine is possible. With that monkey study, and with proven vaccines for coronavirus in dogs, it gives me a little more confidence that there's nothing inherent to a coronavirus that makes them fully resistant to vaccination.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 06:11:17 PM
I've been thinking about this whole cause of death thing.

It makes sense to report all of these as virus deaths, regardless of condition.

If gramma had COPD, was overweight, had diabetes and proceeded to get run over by a reindeer, then the cause of death would be that gramma got run over by a reindeer. Makes sense to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 06:12:44 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 29, 2020, 06:10:24 PM
Me too LOL.  Where I am at, it has really improved.  When you go into a store, I would say 90% are wearing masks, and they are really keeping distance from each other.

for me, some restaurants will open but limited to either outdoor seating with distance between tables, or 25% capacity inside- but I will continue supporting local place via carry out or delivery, for a while yet.
This is how it is where I live in Palatine, and it's how I will live my life in Florida for the month of May. I'm not in a hurry to go into a place and eat.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 29, 2020, 06:19:09 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 06:09:22 PM
Can't wait to get down there. On the road... tomorrow morning!!
What awaits you.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 29, 2020, 06:25:26 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 06:11:17 PM
I've been thinking about this whole cause of death thing.

It makes sense to report all of these as virus deaths, regardless of condition.

If gramma had COPD, was overweight, had diabetes and proceeded to get run over by a reindeer, then the cause of death would be that gramma got run over by a reindeer. Makes sense to me.
If gramma got run over by a reindeer and died of internal trauma while it was determined she also had COVID-19, I say you don't put COVID-19 on the cause of death line. 

If gramma had COPD, was overweight, had diabetes, and was admitted to the hospital and died of pneumonia and tested positive for COVID-19, then COVID-19 should go onto the cause of death line. There's no reason to believe gramma would have gotten pneumonia TODAY without COVID-19.

Why is this hard to understand?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 29, 2020, 06:38:16 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 29, 2020, 06:25:26 PM
If gramma got run over by a reindeer and died of internal trauma while it was determined she also had COVID-19, I say you don't put COVID-19 on the cause of death line.

If gramma had COPD, was overweight, had diabetes, and was admitted to the hospital and died of pneumonia and tested positive for COVID-19, then COVID-19 should go onto the cause of death line. There's no reason to believe gramma would have gotten pneumonia TODAY without COVID-19.

Why is this hard to understand?
Agreed.  But if they never tested her for Covid, but she came from a home where there were other cases reported, and they put her on a ventilator to try to save her, cause of death is complications from pneumonia.   It is my understanding that there are many of these types of scenarios, particularly in NYC, that are categorized as Covid.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 29, 2020, 06:48:22 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 29, 2020, 06:38:16 PM
Agreed.  But if they never tested her for Covid, but she came from a home where there were other cases reported, and they put her on a ventilator to try to save her, cause of death is complications from pneumonia.  It is my understanding that there are many of these types of scenarios, particularly in NYC, that are categorized as Covid. 
Without a positive test, I would think that all you could do in this case (based on symptoms and community history) would be to write "probable COVID" on the COD. 

Although it's not often broken down for us laypeople, I would think that legitimate epidemiologists would want to know that COVID was suspected in the death while applying an appropriate "derating" factor to it because there was no positive test result. 

Assuming it's 100% COVID is wrong. Assuming it's 100% unrelated to COVID is wrong. Because a good portion of those type of cases are COVID even in the absence of a positive test.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 29, 2020, 07:29:07 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 29, 2020, 06:10:29 PM

But the discussion turned to a vaccine and whether one had ever been created for coronavirus. Someone highlighted that there ARE successful vaccines for coronavirus strains in animals.
What after all the banter they're saying there's successful vaccine's for animals when we're not even sure if there are accurate tests for Humans.Someone's getting pranked or our priorities are out of whack.Nope not buying that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 29, 2020, 07:38:21 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 29, 2020, 07:29:07 PM
What after all the banter they're saying there's successful vaccine's for animals when we're not even sure if there are accurate tests for Humans.Someone's getting pranked or our priorities are out of whack.Nope not buying that
You're aware that there's not one "Coronavirus" out there, right? That a coronavirus is an entire class of virii that encompasses a whole bunch of different things.

COVID-19, also known as SARS-nCoV-19, is a specific new coronavirus that we've never seen before. MERS from a while back is a coronavirus. SARS from 2003 is a coronavirus. Several strains of the "common cold" are caused by types of coronavirus. And there are strains of coronavirus that infect dogs, at least one of which is vaccine-preventable. 

I hope that your response was intended to be sarcastic. If so, disregard my response as I couldn't tell if sarcastic. If not, please educate yourself on the subject.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 29, 2020, 08:59:15 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 29, 2020, 04:48:23 PM
I didn't get any of that stimulus.
Yeah, I didn't get any of that gubment stimulus.
Me neither Utee. 

I would have done that differently, too.   

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 29, 2020, 09:37:01 PM
This is an news piece about dogs being able to sniff out the virus

I mentioned this a few days ago

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/canine-surveillance-how-labrador-retrievers-are-being-trained-to-sniff-out-coronavirus-cases (https://nationalpost.com/news/world/canine-surveillance-how-labrador-retrievers-are-being-trained-to-sniff-out-coronavirus-cases)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 09:41:57 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 29, 2020, 06:25:26 PM
If gramma got run over by a reindeer and died of internal trauma while it was determined she also had COVID-19, I say you don't put COVID-19 on the cause of death line.

If gramma had COPD, was overweight, had diabetes, and was admitted to the hospital and died of pneumonia and tested positive for COVID-19, then COVID-19 should go onto the cause of death line. There's no reason to believe gramma would have gotten pneumonia TODAY without COVID-19.

Why is this hard to understand?
Because Gramma got run over by a reindeer?

What was not understood by my post is... Lighten up.

We all need to lighten up. Friends. We're friends.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 29, 2020, 10:00:42 PM
48 Hrs. (1/9) Movie CLIP - We Ain't Partners (1982) HD - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZdN6HbD0paY)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 29, 2020, 10:20:03 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 29, 2020, 05:55:25 PM
I used TT and got the deposit made.  I don't know why using TT would alter that.
Look it up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 29, 2020, 10:35:57 PM
I used Turbo Tax

got my stimulus 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 29, 2020, 10:53:08 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 29, 2020, 07:38:21 PM
If so, disregard my response as I couldn't tell if sarcastic. If not, please educate yourself on the subject.
I'm not questioning your accuracy just the people who said it but if they have a corona cure for animals WTF - does that make sense?And if they have a cure what the ails the animals why didn't researchers keep going.There is robo information regarding everything involving this and that just doesn't pass the say it out loud test. "We've found a corona cure for animals but we're gonna quit now we're tuckered out" - maybe if someone stayed the course this would have been nipped in the bud,they've had since 2003 as you pointed out
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 30, 2020, 12:03:57 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 29, 2020, 10:20:03 PM
Look it up.
Quote from: FearlessF on April 29, 2020, 10:35:57 PM
I used Turbo Tax

got my stimulus

My sister uses turbotax and got her stimulus payment on 4/15, so 2 weeks ago.  She normally has a refund, and she normally has it direct-deposited, and that's why the IRS had her info.

Do you normally get refunds that are direct-deposited?  If so, then I'm not sure turbotax itself is the issue.  But I can definitely understand the frustration with not being able to talk to anyone about it, that absolutely sucks.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 30, 2020, 01:23:20 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 29, 2020, 03:22:47 PM
Same with Sweden. Sweden basically said "hey, this is serious, you should work from home, you should social distance, you should do all these things voluntarily because we don't want to mandate them", and the Swedes said "yeah, that sounds like a good idea..."

Whereas here in California, unless you physically close the beaches you get them swarmed when the weather gets hot like last weekend.

Sweden has no "lockdown" but people mostly act like there is a lockdown, whereas in California we have a lockdown that people aren't respecting.
So, in California, the average Joe doesn't trust the government to do the right thing?
California voting patterns don't seem to reflect that skepticism.
Not trying to rebut you in any way, Bwarb.  You are absolutely a voice of reason on this subject as far as I'm concerned.
But I've got two stepsons living in California whom I love greatly but whose political views I struggle to understand.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 30, 2020, 02:02:26 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 30, 2020, 12:03:57 AM
My sister uses turbotax and got her stimulus payment on 4/15, so 2 weeks ago.  She normally has a refund, and she normally has it direct-deposited, and that's why the IRS had her info.

Do you normally get refunds that are direct-deposited?  If so, then I'm not sure turbotax itself is the issue.  But I can definitely understand the frustration with not being able to talk to anyone about it, that absolutely sucks.
Yes, I do it every year.  I have to pay some amount on federal taxes and I get more than that back from state taxes. 
I don't need the check, but yeah, the fact that there is nothing proactive I can do about it isn't fun.

The IRS site changed a bit from the last time I tried looking into it.  Now it needs my adjusted gross income, which I don't have, because I only have my w2 from last year, not my 1040.  So that's fun, too.  I type in all the info to get the check soonerish, but it doesn't accept what I type in.

Every progressive step is another dead end.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 30, 2020, 07:49:54 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 30, 2020, 02:02:26 AM
Yes, I do it every year.  I have to pay some amount on federal taxes and I get more than that back from state taxes. 
I don't need the check, but yeah, the fact that there is nothing proactive I can do about it isn't fun.

The IRS site changed a bit from the last time I tried looking into it.  Now it needs my adjusted gross income, which I don't have, because I only have my w2 from last year, not my 1040.  So that's fun, too.  I type in all the info to get the check soonerish, but it doesn't accept what I type in.

Every progressive step is another dead end.

Hmmmm.  Well here in Texico we don't have state income taxes, only Federal.  So her refund comes directly from the Federal government, rather than state.  I wonder if that has something to do with it?

On surlybevo, there's a lengthy thread about the stimulus payments, and like you, some people are still having problems with it.  But from what I read, they're mostly the self-employed types that are paying in quarterly, rather than "standard" citizens that have corporate or government-paid "steady" jobs as you do.

Sorry to hear you're having troubles.  Whether you need it or not, the government has decided that money is yours, and who doesn't want some extra in troubled times? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 30, 2020, 08:08:07 AM
TT saves a copy of my 1040 as a pdf file each year on my HD.  I copy that to a stock, and print it out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 30, 2020, 08:18:36 AM
https://www.ajc.com/news/breaking-news/hundreds-georgia-poultry-workers-have-tested-positive-for-covid/K0vGYEGTSbvAYIeU3I6qtM/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/breaking-news/hundreds-georgia-poultry-workers-have-tested-positive-for-covid/K0vGYEGTSbvAYIeU3I6qtM/)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 30, 2020, 08:55:54 AM
That's not good
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 30, 2020, 09:23:41 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 30, 2020, 01:23:20 AM
So, in California, the average Joe doesn't trust the government to do the right thing?
California voting patterns don't seem to reflect that skepticism.
Not trying to rebut you in any way, Bwarb.  You are absolutely a voice of reason on this subject as far as I'm concerned.
But I've got two stepsons living in California whom I love greatly but whose political views I struggle to understand.
Well, ya gotta remember it's a state of 40M people. All it takes is a couple hundred thousand selfish assholes and you'll fill up the major beaches. And we've got PLENTY of those--California has that reputation as much as being "progressive". Even probably many of them who vote progressive because it's fashionable and it's what all their friends do, but they're not going to pass up a day at the beach because they're young and invincible.

I'm a libertarian and have very little trust in the government, but I think California took this seriously very early and that's part of the reason we don't look like New York right now. Most here in California of my generation are trying to do our best to comply with all these changes in the hopes that doing our best right now will shorten it. And as a result, people like me are PISSED at the morons who decided to go to the beach and are going to ruin it for the rest of us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 30, 2020, 09:56:50 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 30, 2020, 01:23:20 AM
So, in California, the average Joe doesn't trust the government to do the right thing?
California voting patterns don't seem to reflect that skepticism.
Not trying to rebut you in any way, Bwarb.  You are absolutely a voice of reason on this subject as far as I'm concerned.
But I've got two stepsons living in California whom I love greatly but whose political views I struggle to understand.
If actions reflected voting that would be an interesting world. But not the one we live in. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 30, 2020, 09:59:15 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 30, 2020, 02:02:26 AM
The IRS site changed a bit from the last time I tried looking into it.  Now it needs my adjusted gross income, which I don't have, because I only have my w2 from last year, not my 1040.  So that's fun, too.  I type in all the info to get the check soonerish, but it doesn't accept what I type in.

Every progressive step is another dead end.
your government at work

you didn't marry an illegal?  did you?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 30, 2020, 10:00:31 AM
I know we've talked about overcounting... Some evidence suggests the problem is the opposite.

U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported, C.D.C. Data Suggests (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html)

The key is that total deaths in the hardest-hit states are up FAR higher than normal. Death rates are normally quite predictable year to year, so it's easy to quantify the deviation from normal trend. If you take the difference between normal death rates in those areas and you subtract out the deaths attributed to COVID-19, you end up with ~9000 excess deaths. 

Now, if you read the article, they do conflate two things here.

The article points out that some of those deaths could be unrelated to COVID-19, or could be related but not caused by COVID-19 (i.e. deaths of people who didn't seek treatment for something at a hospital because they were scared of contracting COVID-19). But of those 9,000, it's highly likely that at least some of them were directly caused by COVID-19. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 30, 2020, 10:50:38 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 30, 2020, 10:00:31 AM
I know we've talked about overcounting... Some evidence suggests the problem is the opposite.

U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported, C.D.C. Data Suggests (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html)

The key is that total deaths in the hardest-hit states are up FAR higher than normal. Death rates are normally quite predictable year to year, so it's easy to quantify the deviation from normal trend. If you take the difference between normal death rates in those areas and you subtract out the deaths attributed to COVID-19, you end up with ~9000 excess deaths.

Now, if you read the article, they do conflate two things here.

The article points out that some of those deaths could be unrelated to COVID-19, or could be related but not caused by COVID-19 (i.e. deaths of people who didn't seek treatment for something at a hospital because they were scared of contracting COVID-19). But of those 9,000, it's highly likely that at least some of them were directly caused by COVID-19.
which would mean under reported virus cases of about 2,000,000
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 30, 2020, 11:02:28 AM
My kid in Texas definitely had it and was not reported, not tested, never saw a doctor.

I suspect this is fairly common, coupled with the number of asymptomatic cases out there.

Of course, if the outcome is death, it was not asymptomatic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 30, 2020, 11:09:28 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 30, 2020, 11:02:28 AM
My kid in Texas definitely had it and was not reported, not tested, never saw a doctor.

I suspect this is fairly common, coupled with the number of asymptomatic cases out there.

Of course, if the outcome is death, it was not asymptomatic.
I had a nagging cough for a little over 2 weeks last October then it just went away

I had never had anything like this before

sets one to wondering
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 30, 2020, 11:22:16 AM
I had a bad respiratory illness last October.  Before and during my roadtrip to watch the Gophers run over the Huskers

tested for flu and strep  - negative

doc said it was most likely a virus and just had to run it's course

got a bottle of antibiotics - didn't help a tall
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 30, 2020, 11:26:28 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 30, 2020, 10:50:38 AM
which would mean under reported virus cases of about 2,000,000
Well, the degree of undercounting of cases and the degree of under/overcounting of deaths are independent of each other... 

Both are important, because the goal is to figure out the true mortality rate. 

I agree with you that we need more antibody testing to get much better estimates of case rates. NY testing suggests about a 10x difference between confirmed cases and actual infections. CA testing had even higher multiples, as high as 55x [but low sample sizes and much lower rates, which make them more susceptible to false positive test results].  The spread on those numbers is SO massive that we really don't know what to do with it, because when trying to calculate the mortality it means we'd either be 5x too high or 5x too low depending on which one is "right"--or maybe it's somewhere in between. 

But if we're undercounting or overcounting deaths, that gives us error too. If we're at 60K deaths with up to 9K additional [probably lower, but that's the upper bound] in just 7 states, you're looking at a 15% or so difference. It's not as impactful as the wide ranges of antibody testing, but it's enough to make a difference.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 30, 2020, 11:32:08 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 30, 2020, 11:22:16 AM
I had a bad respiratory illness last October.  Before and during my roadtrip to watch the Gophers run over the Huskers

tested for flu and strep  - negative

doc said it was most likely a virus and just had to run it's course

got a bottle of antibiotics - didn't help a tall
Well, probably not COVID if you went to a large football stadium while symptomatic and didn't become the superspreader that kicked this thing off many months before it was known...

I gotta say that the overprescribing of antibiotics is eventually going to screw us all as more and more bacteria develop resistance. "Oh, it's probably just a virus so I'm going to give you something completely ineffective at controlling a viral infection."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 30, 2020, 11:43:14 AM
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/pandemic-confusing-uncertainty/610819/?fbclid=IwAR1bsjdFGyedx1AryAscgrbZmET6ouEUyn3H556NwswYJ4MSkkHF6E6inHo (https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/pandemic-confusing-uncertainty/610819/?fbclid=IwAR1bsjdFGyedx1AryAscgrbZmET6ouEUyn3H556NwswYJ4MSkkHF6E6inHo)

Pretty interesting article, including thoughts about whether this was around last fall (apparently it was not).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 30, 2020, 12:06:34 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 30, 2020, 11:32:08 AM
. . . I gotta say that the overprescribing of antibiotics is eventually going to screw us all as more and more bacteria develop resistance. "Oh, it's probably just a virus so I'm going to give you something completely ineffective at controlling a viral infection."
It strikes me that people constantly using anti-bacterial hand soap may be doing the same thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 30, 2020, 12:07:36 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 30, 2020, 09:23:41 AM
Well, ya gotta remember it's a state of 40M people. All it takes is a couple hundred thousand selfish assholes and you'll fill up the major beaches. And we've got PLENTY of those...most here in California of my generation are trying to do our best to comply with all these changes in the hopes that doing our best right now will shorten it. And as a result, people like me are PISSED at the morons who decided to go to the beach and are going to ruin it for the rest of us.
Yup. This.

In our county, which has been a model of response so far, we are cautiously reopening some public areas (like county parks) and loosening some other restrictions (including allowing more businesses to reopen), but everyone is worried that a few bad apples will ruin that for everyone else.

And a friend of mine is celebrating her beach trips on social media, and threatening revolt if the governor closes the beaches down (literally because of people like her who can't follow guidelines, so need orders). That's more of a SoCal thing because in NorCal the weather isn't really all that conducive to large beach gatherings (and they tend to be harder to get to). Very frustrating.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 30, 2020, 12:09:31 PM
I have my doubts that anti-bacterial hand soap is really different than regular soap

marketing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 30, 2020, 12:10:05 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 29, 2020, 10:53:08 PM
I'm not questioning your accuracy just the people who said it but if they have a corona cure for animals WTF - does that make sense?And if they have a cure what the ails the animals why didn't researchers keep going.There is robo information regarding everything involving this and that just doesn't pass the say it out loud test. "We've found a corona cure for animals but we're gonna quit now we're tuckered out" - maybe if someone stayed the course this would have been nipped in the bud,they've had since 2003 as you pointed out
They didn't find a cure, they created a vaccine. And the variant of coronavirus that they created the vaccine for is not SARS, or MERS, or COVID-19 and would not work for this. Those are different diseases than what affects dogs, even though both are caused by a form of a coronavirus.

https://www.merck-animal-health-usa.com/dp/4 (https://www.merck-animal-health-usa.com/dp/4)

That's the link to the Merck website, the page with their vaccine for "Enteric Canine Coronavirus". That vaccine will not prevent COVID-19 in either dogs or humans, because it's designed for a completely different coronavirus disease.

They also have one for an enteric coronavirus disease in cows: https://www.merck-animal-health-usa.com/dp/68 (https://www.merck-animal-health-usa.com/dp/68)

I brought it up because we were discussing whether it's POSSIBLE to vaccinate against a coronavirus or to confer long-term (or even short-term) immunity. We've never created a human-successful coronavirus vaccine, but I think part of that is that SARS flamed out before research was completed and MERS vaccine research is still ongoing. The concern might be that it's impossible to vaccinate against any coronavirus because we don't have a successful human version for any previous disease.

The fact that vaccination against coronavirus type diseases is POSSIBLE in dogs or cows, and showing promise in recent tests with monkeys, is promising that someday we might actually have a vaccine against COVID-19. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 30, 2020, 12:16:25 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on April 30, 2020, 12:06:34 PM
It strikes me that people constantly using anti-bacterial hand soap may be doing the same thing.
I'm not an expert, but I think the concern there is that our skin is covered in all sorts of beneficial bacteria. If you're constantly trying to wash that off with antibacterial soap, you may end up getting rid of stuff you need in the desire to rid yourself of the stuff that can harm you.

I understand this is another downside of overprescribing antibiotics. Your GI tract is FULL of bacteria, and that's a good thing. Chronic overuse of antibiotics can really mess up your GI system by killing off too much of the good stuff. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 30, 2020, 12:19:57 PM
Just plain soap is an amazingly effective antibacterial.  You don't need a tiny amount of chlorohexidine in soap anyway, it's marketing BS.

I find human tolerance of drinking water to be fascinating.  My buddy who is Turkish told us he could drink the water in Istanbul but advised we not do it.  He's been here 40 years.  We were to stay at a fancy hotel, so they might have treated their water additionally, but he said normal tap water there would make us sick.

And, "back in the day", we all drank out of a stream anyway.  Dogs do it now with no ill effect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on April 30, 2020, 01:45:20 PM
My one sojurn into Mexico as an adult was about 20 years ago.  My wife and I went to Cancun for 3-4 days.  I assured her that drinking the water would be no problem, as I had spent 20 years in the Army and had surely drunk worse water than Cancun would throw at us.
I was wrong.
She avoided drinking the water and was fine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 30, 2020, 02:20:44 PM
Well, morons being morons ruined it for everyone...

Surf’s down in California: Governor set to close beaches (https://apnews.com/2903c0c62f97116e9ef6f5425ad0a7ac)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 30, 2020, 02:23:17 PM
Bogus, dude!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 30, 2020, 02:24:39 PM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 29, 2020, 12:09:20 PM
1. When the government is the one encouraging hospitals to attribute everyone possible to Covid, how would that be medicare fraud? They are following government guidelines. The point is that the government is the one that appears to be the entity that is propping up the numbers. The hospital is simply following the guidelines being issued. 


2. When someone with a terminal illness shows symptoms of a cold, flu or any other virus, and they ultimately die, their deaths are not attributed to the cold, flu or other illness. However with Covid, that seems to be the case. Why is that? What is so different about this virus that any and all deaths need to be accounted for as having been a result of this virus? Most likely because having people die of other factors does nothing to spread fear and panic the way that showing high number of Covid deaths does. 


3.That could be a possibility. However based on comments made by both Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci, it would seem unlikely. Both of these doctors appear to be reveling in their new found fame and power to influence public policy. Dr. Birx suggesting to attribute any deaths to Covid just for showing symptoms and Dr. Fauci telling people we should not shake hands but having sex with people you meet online would be ok. (Personally, I think the guy is a quack, but that's just me).
Answers by numbers
1. In the previous post, you said you asked why the hospital was upping the numbers, and the answer was "the hospital gets more federal money for a higher number of Covid patients." But then the actual answer is the government is encouraging that in essence so the hospital can take federal money? I suppose the overall ploy could just be to transfer money from the federal government to hospitals, but this arrangement seems muddled to say the least.

2. As I understand it, multiple factors are listed. And then it's a matter of how we're looking at the data. Like we have 60,000 flue deaths a year. Many of those are tied into co-morbidities. Shoot, lots of people's main COD is just being old and having systemic issues. But it comes through as a that particular sort of data in our current situation. 

3. The last part just comes off to me ... I dunno. Like when we ascribe all sorts of feelings and motivations to a football coach without really having a sense of the structure of a play? Like, he's literally one of the most respected people in that field. If he's actually a "quack" but he objectively knows worlds more than any of us about infectious diseases and their spread, then chances are whatever we think is nothing short of impossibly uninformed. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 30, 2020, 02:26:01 PM
Some schools around the state of Texas announcing their plans to reopen "carefully" with on-campus classes in the Fall:

Texas A&M, Texas Tech:


https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/04/30/texas-am-texas-tech-universities-plan-to-reopen-campuses-in-the-fall/ (https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/04/30/texas-am-texas-tech-universities-plan-to-reopen-campuses-in-the-fall/)



Baylor:

https://www.kxxv.com/hometown/mclennan-county/baylor-university-announces-plans-for-fall-semester-return-to-campus-for-faculty-and-staff (https://www.kxxv.com/hometown/mclennan-county/baylor-university-announces-plans-for-fall-semester-return-to-campus-for-faculty-and-staff)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 30, 2020, 02:26:29 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 30, 2020, 12:16:25 PM
I'm not an expert, but I think the concern there is that our skin is covered in all sorts of beneficial bacteria. If you're constantly trying to wash that off with antibacterial soap, you may end up getting rid of stuff you need in the desire to rid yourself of the stuff that can harm you.

I understand this is another downside of overprescribing antibiotics. Your GI tract is FULL of bacteria, and that's a good thing. Chronic overuse of antibiotics can really mess up your GI system by killing off too much of the good stuff.
You get something called C-diff which is both unpleasant and gross. And the perscrption is often a fecal transplant, which is an actual medical procedure because the world is weird. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 30, 2020, 06:32:35 PM
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0311-8 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0311-8)

More than you may wish to know about it ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 01, 2020, 07:56:38 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 30, 2020, 09:23:41 AM
Well, ya gotta remember it's a state of 40M people. All it takes is a couple hundred thousand selfish assholes and you'll fill up the major beaches. And we've got PLENTY of those--California has that reputation as much as being "progressive". Even probably many of them who vote progressive because it's fashionable and it's what all their friends do, but they're not going to pass up a day at the beach because they're young and invincible.

I'm a libertarian and have very little trust in the government, but I think California took this seriously very early and that's part of the reason we don't look like New York right now. Most here in California of my generation are trying to do our best to comply with all these changes in the hopes that doing our best right now will shorten it. And as a result, people like me are PISSED at the morons who decided to go to the beach and are going to ruin it for the rest of us.
From what we have been told by the "experts", sunlight kills the virus. Therefore, shouldn't we encourage people to be outside in the sunshine?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 01, 2020, 08:13:24 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 30, 2020, 02:24:39 PM
Answers by numbers
1. In the previous post, you said you asked why the hospital was upping the numbers, and the answer was "the hospital gets more federal money for a higher number of Covid patients." But then the actual answer is the government is encouraging that in essence so the hospital can take federal money? I suppose the overall ploy could just be to transfer money from the federal government to hospitals, but this arrangement seems muddled to say the least.

2. As I understand it, multiple factors are listed. And then it's a matter of how we're looking at the data. Like we have 60,000 flue deaths a year. Many of those are tied into co-morbidities. Shoot, lots of people's main COD is just being old and having systemic issues. But it comes through as a that particular sort of data in our current situation.

3. The last part just comes off to me ... I dunno. Like when we ascribe all sorts of feelings and motivations to a football coach without really having a sense of the structure of a play? Like, he's literally one of the most respected people in that field. If he's actually a "quack" but he objectively knows worlds more than any of us about infectious diseases and their spread, then chances are whatever we think is nothing short of impossibly uninformed.
1. Good question. I have no idea. However, with the numerous spending bills, the Fed Gov't is literally directly giving the hospitals money along with the stipends for individual cases. Could be a factor.

2. When I spend 3 months in the hospital in 2013 due to pneumonia brought on as a result of the flu, NOWHERE in my medical records was influenza mentioned. The only things in my records were pneumonia and multiple organ failure due to group A steptococcus. It would seem to me that Influenza would have been recorded in those records as the underlying cause, but it was not. If that was true for me, then I am sure it would be the same with others. Therefore if that is the case, they are using one standard for Influenza reporting and another for Covid. 

3. I don't need a degree in epidemiology or medicine to know bullshit when I see it. Fauci telling people we cannot shake hands or even been within 6 feet of others, but having a hookup on tender is perfectly fine would be a great example. Tinder Hookups Ok (https://www.newsweek.com/dr-fauci-meet-tinder-date-if-willing-take-risk-1498317)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 01, 2020, 08:13:45 AM
Being outside is good, but of course, with distancing.  If someone is infected and coughs or sneezes, you could come into contact with viable virus before it is killed by sunlight, it's not instantaneous obviously.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 01, 2020, 09:03:06 AM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 01, 2020, 07:56:38 AM
From what we have been told by the "experts", sunlight kills the virus. Therefore, shouldn't we encourage people to be outside in the sunshine?
As Cincy mentions, it's not like UV will immediately kill the virus, especially in the amounts we normally take in from the sun.

But if we're going to quote experts, let's quote experts: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/04/23/lab-study-coronavirus-summer-weather/


(https://i.imgur.com/PTfQEd2.png)

 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/04/23/lab-study-coronavirus-summer-weather/)So transmission is less likely in the warm sun than it is in an air-conditioned restaurant. But a virus with a half-life of ~1.5 minutes aerosolized at the beach--which is usually breezy meaning 6ft social distancing might not be enough, is plenty of time for infection to spread. 

The other issue with these beachgoers is that part of the goal of social distancing is to limit household-to-household contact. While you can't likely avoid spread if one person within a household gets it, you want to avoid transmitting it between households.

How many of the people who went to the beach together, rather than being a single contained family/household unit, went as a group? Especially the young people, without kids. Do you think the random 20-year-old Californian went alone (ew!) or with their parents (EW!)? Or did they fill up a car with their 20-something friends and all go to the beach together? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 01, 2020, 09:08:02 AM
My problem with beach photos is the intentional distortion of distancing by using a telephoto lens.  Those groups may be 20 feet apart, and the lens makes them look bunched together.

The beach is a linear park in effect.  

The distancing I see around me has been excellent with very very few exceptions when we walk around the park and the Beltline.

I got a bit annoyed when I went to the butcher shop because there was a group of four on bikes resting just outside the door, and they weren't shopping there.  I told them to move down to where people were not coming in and out of a shop door.  They glared at me, I glared back, they didn't move.

That was stupid.  People were having to navigate through their cluster to get inside the shop.  Idiots.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 01, 2020, 09:17:03 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 01, 2020, 09:08:02 AM
My problem with beach photos is the intentional distortion of distancing by using a telephoto lens.  Those groups may be 20 feet apart, and the lens makes them look bunched together.

The beach is a linear park in effect. 
I did see your post in the other thread and was going to highlight the point just made, that I'm guessing it might be all well and good if each contained group was a household unit, and they were all effectively distancing from the other groups. But I'm guessing a good number of those groups were friends, NOT a household unit, which defeats the purpose. 

The other aspect is the continuous breeze. Heck, it's the reason for going to the beach, but I'll bet it creates a MUCH wider dispersal of aerosolized droplets of virus than calm air would do. So I'm not sure 6ft distancing is sufficient there. Especially if you're spending a significant amount of time downwind from someone infected, as may be the case since each group is stationary and trying to not mingle with others. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 01, 2020, 09:39:49 AM
Yeah, the groups may be from different HHs, but there isn't a rule about that, and it would happen anywhere of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 01, 2020, 10:01:21 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 01, 2020, 09:39:49 AM
Yeah, the groups may be from different HHs, but there isn't a rule about that, and it would happen anywhere of course.
Well, the guidelines (or at least the FAQ on the state gov't page) do suggest only gathering with your own household. 

It's at the bottom re: outdoor recreation.

https://covid19.ca.gov/stay-home-except-for-essential-needs/ (https://covid19.ca.gov/stay-home-except-for-essential-needs/)

It’s okay to go outside to go for a walk, to exercise, and participate in healthy activities as long as you maintain a safe physical distance of six feet and gather only with members of your household. Below is a non-exhaustive list of those outdoor recreational activities.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 01, 2020, 11:45:49 AM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 01, 2020, 08:13:24 AM


3. I don't need a degree in epidemiology or medicine to know bullshit when I see it. Fauci telling people we cannot shake hands or even been within 6 feet of others, but having a hookup on tender is perfectly fine would be a great example. Tinder Hookups Ok (https://www.newsweek.com/dr-fauci-meet-tinder-date-if-willing-take-risk-1498317)

From the interview that led to that link:
Fauci on if handshakes would disappear: "That’s not going to happen. What I hope happens is that people do something really simple, and that’s called washing your hands as often as you possibly can and using some sort of alcohol-based Purell, or something like that. Because handshaking, I mean, I think people will go back to handshaking, but we should probably be a little bit reserved in how we do that unless it’s in a social situation where it’s necessary."

On Tinder: "that’s tough. Because it’s what’s called relative risk. If you really feel that you don’t want to have any part of this virus, will you maintain six feet away, wear a mask, do all the things that we talk about in the guidelines? If you’re willing to take a risk—and you know, everybody has their own tolerance for risks—you could figure out if you want to meet somebody. And it depends on the level of the interaction that you want to have. If you’re looking for a friend, sit in a room and put a mask on, and you know, chat a bit. If you want to go a little bit more intimate, well, then that’s your choice regarding a risk."

Is that bullshit? Seems like the headline someone else put on it and the reaction were bullshit. I dunno. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 01, 2020, 11:47:04 AM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 01, 2020, 07:56:38 AM
From what we have been told by the "experts", sunlight kills the virus. Therefore, shouldn't we encourage people to be outside in the sunshine?
Isn't that only the virus on surfaces? I.e. outside the body?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 01, 2020, 11:47:25 AM
Fauci gets his statements mischaracterized all the time.  I'm sure he's frustrated with that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 01, 2020, 12:17:40 PM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 01, 2020, 08:13:24 AM
3. I don't need a degree in epidemiology or medicine to know bullshit when I see it. Fauci telling people we cannot shake hands or even been within 6 feet of others, but having a hookup on tender is perfectly fine would be a great example. Tinder Hookups Ok (https://www.newsweek.com/dr-fauci-meet-tinder-date-if-willing-take-risk-1498317)
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 01, 2020, 11:45:49 AM
From the interview that led to that link:
Fauci on if handshakes would disappear: "That’s not going to happen. What I hope happens is that people do something really simple, and that’s called washing your hands as often as you possibly can and using some sort of alcohol-based Purell, or something like that. Because handshaking, I mean, I think people will go back to handshaking, but we should probably be a little bit reserved in how we do that unless it’s in a social situation where it’s necessary."

On Tinder: "that’s tough. Because it’s what’s called relative risk. If you really feel that you don’t want to have any part of this virus, will you maintain six feet away, wear a mask, do all the things that we talk about in the guidelines? If you’re willing to take a risk—and you know, everybody has their own tolerance for risks—you could figure out if you want to meet somebody. And it depends on the level of the interaction that you want to have. If you’re looking for a friend, sit in a room and put a mask on, and you know, chat a bit. If you want to go a little bit more intimate, well, then that’s your choice regarding a risk."

Is that bullshit? Seems like the headline someone else put on it and the reaction were bullshit. I dunno.

Yeah, I don't get the sense that Fauci was saying that hookups on Tinder were "perfectly fine". That's an utterly ridiculous mischaracterization of what he said. Clearly he's saying that it's risky. 

Basically everything we do is make a choice re: risk. The goal at a societal level is to stop practices that result in mass transmission. 

In this country, it's customary to greet nearly everyone with a handshake, unless they're close enough to warrant a hug. Business meetings, meeting friends, general introductions, etc. Think about Italy and Spain, where it's customary to greet close friends with a kiss on each cheek. 

If I travel for business during normal times, between all the meetings I might shake 10-30 hands in one day. And those people might shake a heck of a lot more hands than mine. And that's with a bunch of people who aren't social distancing, so transmission chains from one person going to a bunch of meetings can be extensive. If one person is infected there could be tens who are affected downstream.

Compare that to a Tinder date during lockdown... You have two people who are probably social distancing, and are asymptomatic, so at the very least both are unlikely to have the virus, but even if one does... And it gets hot and heavy... The net infection transmission chain is +1 unless you're about to go on 4 more Tinder dates that night. 

From a societal standpoint, a normal business interaction where people are shaking hands with large numbers of other people IS actually more risky than a Tinder hookup where two people get it on. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 01, 2020, 12:25:15 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 01, 2020, 11:47:04 AM
Isn't that only the virus on surfaces? I.e. outside the body?
Outside the body, yes, but not just on surfaces.

If you look at the linked slide from the White House briefing I posted on the last page, they additionally studied aerosolized droplets. Halflife of the virus supposedly had a >30-fold reduction in simulated sunlight relative to no UV. Aerosolized droplets had a half-life of 60 minutes if no UV was present. On surfaces it was estimated a half-life of 2 minutes on surfaces in direct sunlight, and ~1.5 minutes for aerosolized droplets. 

We don't know exactly what level of viral load is necessary for infection, nor whether reduced initial viral load has any bearing on severity of the illness, but obviously risk goes down exponentially faster in direct sunlight compared to no UV. 

So essentially you shouldn't really worry TOO much about touching surfaces in direct sunlight if you have any reasonable expectation that nobody has touched the surface in the last few minutes. I.e. why some people suggest that taking shopping carts from a sunny parking lot might potentially be safer than those in the shade which have been wiped down with disinfectant. (I don't know if it's empirically true, but it's at least logically plausible.)

But being in a crowd in direct sunlight... Not safe. Because there's plenty of time for someone who coughs to infect you.

I.e. going to Wrigley field on a nice warm sunny day and sitting in crowded stands for a few hours during a ballgame would be dangerous because of the half-life time for the virus in those aerosolized droplets, REGARDLESS of the sunlight exposure. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 01, 2020, 12:27:17 PM
:57:

(https://i.imgur.com/qz5XmMZ.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 01, 2020, 01:54:11 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 01, 2020, 11:45:49 AM
From the interview that led to that link:
Fauci on if handshakes would disappear: "That’s not going to happen. What I hope happens is that people do something really simple, and that’s called washing your hands as often as you possibly can and using some sort of alcohol-based Purell, or something like that. Because handshaking, I mean, I think people will go back to handshaking, but we should probably be a little bit reserved in how we do that unless it’s in a social situation where it’s necessary."

On Tinder: "that’s tough. Because it’s what’s called relative risk. If you really feel that you don’t want to have any part of this virus, will you maintain six feet away, wear a mask, do all the things that we talk about in the guidelines? If you’re willing to take a risk—and you know, everybody has their own tolerance for risks—you could figure out if you want to meet somebody. And it depends on the level of the interaction that you want to have. If you’re looking for a friend, sit in a room and put a mask on, and you know, chat a bit. If you want to go a little bit more intimate, well, then that’s your choice regarding a risk."

Is that bullshit? Seems like the headline someone else put on it and the reaction were bullshit. I dunno.


So it's OK to risk yourself and your family or another person and their family on a "hook up", but it's not OK to chance that in every other aspect of life? Got it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 01, 2020, 02:39:35 PM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 01, 2020, 01:54:11 PM
So it's OK to risk yourself and your family or another person and their family on a "hook up", but it's not OK to chance that in every other aspect of life? Got it.

What's the angle here, NOB? 

Do you really think Fauci is saying a random Tinder hookup is "perfectly fine"? Or that he believes that it's "perfectly fine"?

It seems like the response is trying to blast Fauci over a nothingburger...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on May 01, 2020, 03:05:22 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 01, 2020, 02:39:35 PM
What's the angle here, NOB?

Do you really think Fauci is saying a random Tinder hookup is "perfectly fine"? Or that he believes that it's "perfectly fine"?

It seems like the response is trying to blast Fauci over a nothingburger...
Not to speak for NOB but I think he is saying if two people are capable of deciding if they want to meet for a date then why can’t I decide for myself if I want to risk going to a bar, or a restaurant, or a barbershop.

At least that is how I took it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 01, 2020, 03:37:41 PM


Quote from: Kris60 on May 01, 2020, 03:05:22 PM
Not to speak for NOB but I think he is saying if two people are capable of deciding if they want to meet for a date then why can’t I decide for myself if I want to risk going to a bar, or a restaurant, or a barbershop.

At least that is how I took it.
Yes, same here.

I'm not knocking Fauci at all, but there appears to be a bit of a "har har wink wink" double standard there.  


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 01, 2020, 03:38:47 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on May 01, 2020, 03:05:22 PM
Not to speak for NOB but I think he is saying if two people are capable of deciding if they want to meet for a date then why can’t I decide for myself if I want to risk going to a bar, or a restaurant, or a barbershop.

At least that is how I took it.
I get that. And I'm sure if Fauci said "dating is outlawed; you can't see anyone outside your current household" that people would be MORE pleased than what he said? Would we rather do as China did and not allow people to leave their residences without a government-controlled clean bill of health? Would you want the government to start stopping people on the roads who are going to their boyfriend/girlfriend's house demanding to see their papers because they're cavorting with someone not in their own household? Because it's not just about Tinder--a Tinder date with someone you've just met is just as risky as going to see someone you already know, right? 

The simplest answer is that it's a lot easier for government to regulate economic behavior than personal behavior. It's a lot easier for them to close beaches than it is to prosecute beachgoers who aren't appropriately social distancing. The level of intrusion necessary to stop the sort of interaction NOB is bringing up is clearly untenable and far more than Americans would allow, so we're trying to muddle through this mess.

If you listen to Fauci's response, he basically says "risk" or "mask" several times and "six feet away". Clearly he was NOT saying it was a great idea. Not only that, it's NOB who called it a "Tinder hookup", not Fauci. Fauci's response seems to be more tailored to someone who is trying to navigate the compexity of dating in the COVID-19 era, not someone whose intent is just a booty call. 

But "Fauci says we're not allowed to shake hands but thinks a Tinder hookup is perfectly fine" sounds outrageous, so that's what we're running with apparently. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 01, 2020, 03:54:21 PM
Government has the licensing authority to close certain businesses.  They do not have the authority to mandate that I stay isolated in my house without due process.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on May 01, 2020, 03:57:43 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 01, 2020, 03:54:21 PM
Government has the licensing authority to close certain businesses.  They do not have the authority to mandate that I stay isolated in my house without due process.


That first sentence is getting ready to be put to the test.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 01, 2020, 04:01:53 PM
The Board of Health licenses restaurant operations, clearly, and other types as well.  They can shut you down easily.  I suspect a lot of other businesses have some sort of health inspection annually.  We can't open out pool because the city won't inspect it.  We have to have an annual inspection to operate it legally.

I've talked with three restaurant owners now, and it appears they are thinking about mid-May to reopen under new guidelines.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on May 01, 2020, 04:03:39 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 01, 2020, 03:38:47 PM
I get that. And I'm sure if Fauci said "dating is outlawed; you can't see anyone outside your current household" that people would be MORE pleased than what he said? Would we rather do as China did and not allow people to leave their residences without a government-controlled clean bill of health? Would you want the government to start stopping people on the roads who are going to their boyfriend/girlfriend's house demanding to see their papers because they're cavorting with someone not in their own household? Because it's not just about Tinder--a Tinder date with someone you've just met is just as risky as going to see someone you already know, right?

The simplest answer is that it's a lot easier for government to regulate economic behavior than personal behavior. It's a lot easier for them to close beaches than it is to prosecute beachgoers who aren't appropriately social distancing. The level of intrusion necessary to stop the sort of interaction NOB is bringing up is clearly untenable and far more than Americans would allow, so we're trying to muddle through this mess.

If you listen to Fauci's response, he basically says "risk" or "mask" several times and "six feet away". Clearly he was NOT saying it was a great idea. Not only that, it's NOB who called it a "Tinder hookup", not Fauci. Fauci's response seems to be more tailored to someone who is trying to navigate the compexity of dating in the COVID-19 era, not someone whose intent is just a booty call.

But "Fauci says we're not allowed to shake hands but thinks a Tinder hookup is perfectly fine" sounds outrageous, so that's what we're running with apparently.
And that’s reasonable. I didn’t have a problem with Fauci’s answer to the question.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on May 01, 2020, 04:08:25 PM
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fosters.com/news/20200501/maine-restaurant-owner-blasts-governorrsquos-reopening-plan-vows-to-reopen-now%3ftemplate=ampart

Saw this guy on tv last night. I’ll be interested to see where this goes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 01, 2020, 04:25:42 PM
https://www.facebook.com/Kavena/videos/10159966461169196/ (https://www.facebook.com/Kavena/videos/10159966461169196/)

SMDH
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 01, 2020, 04:26:19 PM
https://reason.com/2020/04/27/deaths-spike-in-new-york-city-and-around-the-world/ (https://reason.com/2020/04/27/deaths-spike-in-new-york-city-and-around-the-world/)

I don't think a restaurant can stay open if the city mayor or governor tells the BoH to shut it down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 01, 2020, 04:27:16 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on May 01, 2020, 04:08:25 PM
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fosters.com/news/20200501/maine-restaurant-owner-blasts-governorrsquos-reopening-plan-vows-to-reopen-now%3ftemplate=ampart

Saw this guy on tv last night. I’ll be interested to see where this goes.

Hmmm, so Maine guy is the new Florida Man?


Kidding of course.  I'd say I can't imagine what it's like, but we're down by half for employment in my family due to the coronas, so I actually CAN imagine what it's like. *shrug*

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 01, 2020, 04:48:12 PM
Quicker response than I think anyone is used to from the FDA...

https://www.fda.gov/media/137565/download (https://www.fda.gov/media/137565/download)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 01, 2020, 05:04:38 PM
That's a bit of good news.

Yesterday, I went to visit a friend who has probably days, not weeks, to live.  Parkinson's, not COVID.

On the way, I gassed up.  First gas I had bought since the 17th of March.  Where we shop for groceries, for every $50 in purchases, they give your store card a 3 cents/gallon credit at the local Quik Trip convenience store/gas stations.  I had 39 cents/gallon credit on my card, so I put 12.7 gallons of premium into my Boss 302 for $1.309/gallon.

Which was another bit of good news amidst the gloom.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 01, 2020, 05:13:42 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 01, 2020, 05:04:38 PM
Yesterday, I went to visit a friend who has probably days, not weeks, to live.  Parkinson's, not COVID.
Sorry for your friend, CW. My grandmother died of [or with?] Parkinson's, but was atypical that she made it to 93 despite having Parkinson's. 

My wife and I need to break quarantine tomorrow to go shave her best friend's head. She's in chemo for stage 3 breast cancer and I'm the guy who has clippers. My wife would do it, but probably couldn't handle it without breaking down, so it's on me to be the strong one and keep it together.

Life doesn't stop for COVID.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on May 01, 2020, 05:20:39 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 01, 2020, 04:26:19 PM
https://reason.com/2020/04/27/deaths-spike-in-new-york-city-and-around-the-world/ (https://reason.com/2020/04/27/deaths-spike-in-new-york-city-and-around-the-world/)

I don't think a restaurant can stay open if the city mayor or governor tells the BoH to shut it down.
I’m certainly not an expert and I’m sure what you posted is true. But my guess would be the BOH is usually shutting down restaurants for specific code violations.  Assuming a restaurant passes inspection or has already passed inspection and all applicable taxes and business licenses are in order then forcing this guy to close is a dilemma for the governor.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 01, 2020, 05:29:30 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 01, 2020, 04:27:16 PM
Hmmm, so Maine guy is the new Florida Man?


Kidding of course.  I'd say I can't imagine what it's like, but we're down by half for employment in my family due to the coronas, so I actually CAN imagine what it's like. *shrug*


Not to get too personal but cant your wife claim unemployment
my understanding is the Feds kick in an additional $600/wk on top of the state amount for 39 weeks


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 01, 2020, 05:59:03 PM
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/18/states-police-power-coronavirus-135826 (https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/18/states-police-power-coronavirus-135826)

The authorities to close places down are broader than I thought.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 01, 2020, 08:43:20 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 01, 2020, 05:29:30 PM
Not to get too personal but cant your wife claim unemployment
my understanding is the Feds kick in an additional $600/wk on top of the state amount for 39 weeks



Yes she has claimed unemployment.  It is a small percentage of her normal salary, and it has taken many weeks to kick in (she hasn't even been paid yet), they're completely overwhelmed which is understandable.

We're not going to starve, we're blessed.  But it's nothing like actually being employed.

But also, the extra Federal benefits only last into July, not 39 weeks-- and that's only if the Federal money lasts that long which I doubt it will-- so I'm not sure where you got that number?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 01, 2020, 08:49:43 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 01, 2020, 08:43:20 PM
Yes she has claimed unemployment.  It is a small percentage of her normal salary.  We're not going to starve, we're blessed.  But it's nothing like actually being employed.
ok Im just looking out for ya

Man you married an high earning aggie

way to go
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on May 01, 2020, 09:09:43 PM
I know some teenagers who were working 15 hours per week at minimum wage who are now collecting $600 per week. I guess the downside is there is no place to go to spend it though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 01, 2020, 09:14:15 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on May 01, 2020, 09:09:43 PM
I know some teenagers who were working 15 hours per week at minimum wage who are now collecting $600 per week. I guess the downside is there is no place to go to spend it though.
and do you think these folks will want to return to work anytime soon
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 01, 2020, 09:26:26 PM
that's the problem all us old white guys are against
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 01, 2020, 09:44:35 PM
If Im a minimum wage worker Im riden that horse for 39 weeks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 01, 2020, 09:52:10 PM
I wouldn't but that's just me

I was brought up in a different time

not saying I'm right and anyone else is wrong

pride is not related to logic or intelligence 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on May 01, 2020, 10:16:52 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 01, 2020, 09:14:15 PM
and do you think these folks will want to return to work anytime soon
Honestly, if I’m a 16 yo working part time I kinda get it.  I ride the gravy train for a couple of months and then worry about it afterwards. But these people who may have been making $450-500 per week now getting a little extra from unemployment on top of their stimulus need to think long term.  If your job wants you back  you should go because that extra unemployment runs out in July, but I think a lot of people are making short sighted decisions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: TyphonInc on May 01, 2020, 11:01:12 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 29, 2020, 01:22:58 PM
Do I think this virus "escaped from a lab?" No, that's ridiculous nonsense and a quick Google search will bring up quite a few peer reviewed scientific articles on why that isn't the case.

What Google search term did you use? I used "Did covid-19 start in Wuhan lab?"
On the first page, 4 said no, 3 said yes, and 3 said maybe. That seems a far cry from ridiculous nonsense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 01, 2020, 11:31:47 PM
I'm really not sure where this "39 weeks" stuff is coming from?  The Federal backstop for unemployment runs out in July.  And the funds are most likely going to run out even before that.

Above and beyond that, plenty of people haven't even received a dime.  Including my wife.  She filed weeks ago, still not a dime in the bank account.

Her previous employer, in line for PPP loans, also not a dime.

So.. I guess... don't believe everything you read in the news.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 01, 2020, 11:43:15 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 01, 2020, 11:31:47 PM
I'm really not sure where this "39 weeks" stuff is coming from?  The Federal backstop for unemployment runs out in July.  And the funds are most likely going to run out even before that.

Above and beyond that, plenty of people haven't even received a dime.  Including my wife.  She filed weeks ago, still not a dime in the bank account.

Her previous employer, in line for PPP loans, also not a dime.

So.. I guess... don't believe everything you read in the news.


looks like your right  it is an extra $600/wk but only till end of July

sorry

here is what I found on it

https://www.businessinsider.com/stimulus-package-unemployment-benefits-increase-2020-3 (https://www.businessinsider.com/stimulus-package-unemployment-benefits-increase-2020-3)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 02, 2020, 12:55:46 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWv42oUXsAMly9t.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 02, 2020, 02:35:11 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 01, 2020, 09:14:15 PM
and do you think these folks will want to return to work anytime soon
Just stop.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 02, 2020, 08:06:18 AM
Quote from: Kris60 on May 01, 2020, 09:09:43 PM
I know some teenagers who were working 15 hours per week at minimum wage who are now collecting $600 per week. I guess the downside is there is no place to go to spend it though.
Great to hear I'm still waiting on my stimulus check
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 02, 2020, 08:15:43 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 01, 2020, 09:52:10 PM
I wouldn't but that's just me

I was brought up in a different time

not saying I'm right and anyone else is wrong

pride is not related to logic or intelligence
Good Post,I've been in a similar situation back in the early '80s.The Govenrment hasn't been very shrewd or prudent about who gets benefits.Unfortunately for some it's a way of life and I am including the corporate elite with the polluted too big to fail narrative and tenticles in the halls of congress
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 02, 2020, 08:26:01 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 01, 2020, 05:04:38 PM
That's a bit of good news.

Yesterday, I went to visit a friend who has probably days, not weeks, to live.  Parkinson's, not COVID.

On the way, I gassed up.  First gas I had bought since the 17th of March.  Where we shop for groceries, for every $50 in purchases, they give your store card a 3 cents/gallon credit at the local Quik Trip convenience store/gas stations.  I had 39 cents/gallon credit on my card, so I put 12.7 gallons of premium into my Boss 302 for $1.309/gallon.

Which was another bit of good news amidst the gloom.
Last week a station about 8 miles away for 3 days had it for 1.09(87 oct) and it wasn't 10% ethanol either
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 02, 2020, 08:34:06 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 02, 2020, 02:35:11 AM
Just stop.
Stop what?  Im just saying its gonna be hard for any minimum wage earner to do

Lets see I can return to my minimum wage job or I can just stay home and get more money by not working

As a kid I would have had a hard time making that decision
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2020, 08:41:49 AM
As a kid, I would have an easy time with that.  You make well over MW as a trainee cashier at Wally World.  The market has largely made MW irrelevant today.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 02, 2020, 08:47:21 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 02, 2020, 08:41:49 AM
As a kid, I would have an easy time with that.  You make well over MW as a trainee cashier at Wally World.  The market has largely made MW irrelevant today. 


Not sure why you feel that way

Just about every pizza delivery person is min wage

Starting out at most fast food places is min wage

Its nice when a person can work their way up the salary ladder so

dont get me wrong.  Ive got all the admiration and respect for anyone willing

to start at the bottom and work their way up.  Thats what this country is all about
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2020, 08:59:12 AM
McDonald's Restaurants Ltd. pays its employees an average of $9.95 an hour. Hourly pay at McDonald's Restaurants Ltd. ranges from an average of $7.85 to $14.05 an hour.Mar 30, 2020

My kids got jobs at Panera in 2006 and were making over MW back then, a dollar more.  I imagine in some rural areas folks doing fast food start at MW, it's their choice.  Most places in the country start people well above MW because they can't get workers otherwise.  the market sets the real MW.

I'd be OK with taking the highest MW in our history which was in 1969 I think, adjusting it for inflation and letting it be that wage, which I think is around $11/hour.  Then adjust for inflation annually and you're done, no more political pandering.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 02, 2020, 09:30:12 AM
The Federal kicker is what puts this so far above their normal salary for some folks.  But it's going to run out in July, and possibly even before then.  

I''m not certain the folks that WOULD stay on UE even with viable jobs, are going to get the chance.  Businesses are failing at a high rate.  In many cases there won't be jobs to come back to, anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 02, 2020, 09:33:10 AM
Quote from: utee94 on May 02, 2020, 09:30:12 AM
The Federal kicker is what puts this so far above their normal salary for some folks.  But it's going to run out in July, and possibly even before then. 

I''m not certain the folks that WOULD stay on UE even with viable jobs, are going to get the chance.  Businesses are failing at a high rate.  In many cases there won't be jobs to come back to, anyway.
True but min wage workers will find it much easier to get jobs then higher wage earners in general
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2020, 09:35:30 AM
Our economy could easily spiral out of control downwards despite all the money pumped into it.

There is a kind of critical mass of failures that generate more folks in distress that stop buying much of anything that leads to mroe failures of course etc.

Flooding the system with free money is a stop gap.  The stock market until the last 2 days was trying to see a positive outcome in this, but got cool feet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 02, 2020, 09:40:08 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 02, 2020, 09:35:30 AM
Our economy could easily spiral out of control downwards despite all the money pumped into it.

There is a kind of critical mass of failures that generate more folks in distress that stop buying much of anything that leads to mroe failures of course etc.

Flooding the system with free money is a stop gap.  The stock market until the last 2 days was trying to see a positive outcome in this, but got cool feet.

IF we can successfully uncork this thing over the next 4-6 weeks, the market, and the economy, will come back in 12-18 months.  But the longer we delay now nationally, will get compounded on the back end, due to the exact "tipping point" kind of effect you're mentioning.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 02, 2020, 09:43:40 AM
all its gonna take for this economy to take off is some positive news on the vaccine or miracle drug area

Im very positive about the idea that this could happen by fall

until then we need to just keep opening up where and when we can just to stay in practice

so we dont forget what its like to not be locked down
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2020, 09:46:59 AM
The problem with any new miracle drug is the time required for testing.  The FDA rushed through remdesivir because it had been tested years ago and at least shown to be generally well tolerated.  Imagine someone concocts an  New Drug Entity  it would have zero safety profile.  Even if it works in accelerated clinicals, it would need a safety profile as well before approved for wide use.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 02, 2020, 10:14:03 AM
If the minimum wage is set high enough to matter, it increases unemployment among the least-skilled and least-educated., the very people who most need--for their own good as well as society's--to get into the habit of working rather than relying on government programs.  The higher the minimum wage is set, the harder it is for such people to get that first job.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 02, 2020, 10:22:28 AM
https://www.omaha.com/sports/college/ncaa-sets-nine-core-principles-to-aid-transition-from-quarantine-to-competition/article_c13f4d73-4ba5-5198-9c28-c4c944f84087.amp.html (https://www.omaha.com/sports/college/ncaa-sets-nine-core-principles-to-aid-transition-from-quarantine-to-competition/article_c13f4d73-4ba5-5198-9c28-c4c944f84087.amp.html)

As university presidents and conference commissioners debate when to reopen schools and sports facilities, the NCAA’s COVID-19 Advisory Panel announced nine “core principles” to safely transition to athletic competition.

The principles were compiled by NCAA Chief Medical Officer Brian Hainline, who urged people to remember there will not be a “single day of re-emergence into society.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2020, 10:26:10 AM
I think folks understand this reopening has to be stepwise and gradual and will depend on what transpires.  My GUESS is we have CFB being played but in largely empty stadia.  If a team has an outbreak during practice, that could be reversed quickly of course and that would probably be that.

If "we" don't develop herd immunity with this thing, the prognosis is dire for those primarily affected by it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 02, 2020, 10:31:12 AM
The people in the highest at-risk groups will either have to remain locked down for a very long time, or make the decision that they're simply willing to take the risk in order to live a normal life.

My parents are certainly at-risk, and once I finally convinced them this wasn't a hoax, they've been diligent about distancing.  But there is zero chance they will live their lives that way.  In another month or so, as things reopen, I have no doubt that they're going to go back to being out and about.  They'll wear masks when appropriate, I suspect.  They'll distance at whatever is appropriate for the venue/timing.  But they're not going to stay locked down.  They don't want to live their lives that way, and they'll be willing to assume the risks. 

It'll totally suck if they catch it and it harms them.  It will also totally suck if my mom's cancer comes back and THAT harms her.  Life is full of risks, and grown adults can make decisions for themselves.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2020, 10:31:22 AM
https://www.uptodate.com/contents/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-epidemiology-virology-clinical-features-diagnosis-and-prevention?sectionName=Preventing%20exposure%20in%20the%20community&topicRef=127501&anchor=H1466934285&source=see_link (https://www.uptodate.com/contents/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-epidemiology-virology-clinical-features-diagnosis-and-prevention?sectionName=Preventing exposure in the)

Good summary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2020, 10:32:24 AM
Wearing a mask does not protect you from infection to a significant degree.  That isn't its purpose.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 02, 2020, 10:46:16 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 02, 2020, 09:46:59 AM
The problem with any new miracle drug is the time required for testing.  The FDA rushed through remdesivir because it had been tested years ago and at least shown to be generally well tolerated.  Imagine someone concocts an  New Drug Entity  it would have zero safety profile.  Even if it works in accelerated clinicals, it would need a safety profile as well before approved for wide use.


well until that day arrives we need to explore whether herd immunity is even possible with this virus
if it is then at least we would have a plan B antibody testing and continuing to reopen where possible
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 02, 2020, 11:25:40 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 02, 2020, 10:32:24 AM
Wearing a mask does not protect you from infection to a significant degree.  That isn't its purpose.
Yes-- pretty sure we all know that.

Although an N95 actually does protect the wearer.  But those aren't widely available.  Perhaps they will be in the future.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2020, 12:16:37 PM
An N95 can provide some protections IFF it is FITTED and WORN PROPERLY.

It is NOT some failsafe item everyone can use and be protected, at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 02, 2020, 02:32:52 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 02, 2020, 12:16:37 PM
An N95 can provide some protections IFF it is FITTED and WORN PROPERLY.

It is NOT some failsafe item everyone can use and be protected, at all.
Nobody ever said that.  I'm not sure why you're tilting at windmills here...

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2020, 02:36:55 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 02, 2020, 11:25:40 AM
Yes-- pretty sure we all know that.

Although an N95 actually does protect the wearer.  But those aren't widely available.  Perhaps they will be in the future.
I disagree with the assertion that it does protest the wearer.  It may provide some protection if properly worn and fitted and discarded.  I don't think we should aspire to having them available for use by the general public.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 02, 2020, 09:23:27 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 02, 2020, 10:31:12 AM
 Life is full of risks, and grown adults can make decisions for themselves.
I wish we could insert "good" into that sentence...but we can't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 03, 2020, 07:36:01 AM
Went to Publix yesterday after we rolled in to our home. Everyone was wearing a mask. In Florida.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 03, 2020, 07:42:49 AM
Restaurants were open for indoor seating in Tennessee and Georgia. They were not in Illinois or Kentucky, and they are not in Florida. I think Florida opens for socially distant outdoor seating only, tomorrow. We did not eat in any restaurants on the way down. We opted for take out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 07:44:45 AM
Most folks out shopping here wear masks.  It's a good idea I think.  If you are in the park and nobody is within ten feet it's rather pointless.

I still don't have any idea how many asymptomatic but contagious folks are out and about.  We need data from testing rep samples for the virus and also serological tests of antibodies, also rep samples.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 07:49:15 AM
Some restaurants in Georgia are open.  Very few around me are.  I know Waffle House opened with separated seating.  

I'd be fine with outdoor dining with separated tables.  The weather is very nice here in May.  I just checked and Atmosphere is closed totally still.  Three owners I chatted with say they may open mid-May inside dining.

We're been getting takeout for lunch several times a week and eating in the park at a table in the sun.  There aren't many people in that part of the park, it's a bit secluded despite having a nice sitting area and grassy areas.  Most folks go to the larger lawn areas to the south.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 03, 2020, 08:18:00 AM
I found toilet paper on the shelf!!!!

crisis avoided!

glad you made it to Florida w/o issue, Badge
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 03, 2020, 09:18:38 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 03, 2020, 08:18:00 AM
I found toilet paper on the shelf!!!!

crisis avoided!

glad you made it to Florida w/o issue, Badge
now start working on that steak
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 12:57:56 PM
Interesting news coming out today.  Turns out that COVID may be more deadly than we anticipated, and we have been under counting deaths related to the disease.  

Pneumonia + Influenza Mortality Rate (separate from COVID) in United States is double the usual rate in previous years  (https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html)

Spike in US deaths and cases flagged as pneumonia suggests even greater COVID-19 impact (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2020/04/29/far-greater-u-s-covid-19-death-toll-indicated-cdc-data/3048381001/)

US endures worst one-day death toll yet as states reopen (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/495826-us-endures-worst-one-day-death-toll-yet-as-states-reopen)

As most of you know I'm a data guy, so I have following the numbers closely.  I have a few insights that maybe my fellow stat nerds would like.

*  We only have the capacity to test about 150,000 people a day.  We have, historically, been around a 20% positive rate.  That means, on average, we max out at 30,000 additional confirmed cases per day.  We have been confirming around 30,000 positive cases per day for more than a month now.  If I am to draw a conclusion here, there are probably far more people that have had the virus than we our official numbers.

*  Because the number of confirmed positive cases is probably nowhere close to reality, I have been utilizing the "deaths per day" metric.  This has shown some improvement, but the latest data shows this may be an unreliable number as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 03, 2020, 01:17:49 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 12:57:56 PM
Interesting news coming out today.  Turns out that COVID may be more deadly than we anticipated, and we have been under counting deaths related to the disease. 

Pneumonia + Influenza Mortality Rate (separate from COVID) in United States is double the usual rate in previous years  (https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html)

Spike in US deaths and cases flagged as pneumonia suggests even greater COVID-19 impact (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2020/04/29/far-greater-u-s-covid-19-death-toll-indicated-cdc-data/3048381001/)

US endures worst one-day death toll yet as states reopen (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/495826-us-endures-worst-one-day-death-toll-yet-as-states-reopen)

As most of you know I'm a data guy, so I have following the numbers closely.  I have a few insights that maybe my fellow stat nerds would like.

*  We only have the capacity to test about 150,000 people a day.  We have, historically, been around a 20% positive rate.  That means, on average, we max out at 30,000 additional confirmed cases per day.  We have been confirming around 30,000 positive cases per day for more than a month now.  If I am to draw a conclusion here, there are probably far more people that have had the virus than we our official numbers.

*  Because the number of confirmed positive cases is probably nowhere close to reality, I have been utilizing the "deaths per day" metric.  This has shown some improvement, but the latest data shows this may be an unreliable number as well.
this old news
we discussed this in detail previously
no reason to think this virus is more then .5 to .7% deaths to positive
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 03, 2020, 01:39:52 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 03, 2020, 07:36:01 AM
Went to Publix yesterday after we rolled in to our home. Everyone was wearing a mask. In Florida.
Welcome to Florida Badge!

my marina was open yesterday for the first time since lockdown.  Went out fishing this morning. I wondered, as I did not get within 100 yards of another human for the entire morning, why this activity was against the rules before??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 01:40:23 PM
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

This site does not show Thursday as being an unusually high figure of deaths.  

There are indications that the COVID deaths may be higher because deaths from all causes are higher than they have been over the same period over the past four years.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 01:41:08 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on May 03, 2020, 01:39:52 PM
Welcome to Florida Badge!

my marina was open yesterday for the first time since lockdown.  Went out fishing this morning. I wondered, as I did not get within 100 yards of another human for the entire morning, why this activity was against the rules before??
Was the marina closed by the marina folks or the State?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 03, 2020, 01:41:21 PM
Wouldn't it be nice to know?
I fear our leadership has dragged its feet on testing on purpose to artificially keep the numbers low across the board.  You know, for selfish reasons.  
But that's probably just me hating the guy.  No evidence that he'd act unethically to improve his self-interests.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 03, 2020, 01:42:31 PM
Floridians love Publix, lol.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 03, 2020, 01:50:23 PM
I don't like Publix at all. Way too expensive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 01:50:42 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 03, 2020, 01:17:49 PM
this old news
we discussed this in detail previously
no reason to think this virus is more then .5 to .7% deaths to positive
You really ought to cite a source.  I've been following this as closely as anyone and the lowest number I have ever seen is a 0.8% mortality.  That's a single study that focused on people waiting in line in grocery stores.  Not exactly a low risk group.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 01:52:43 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 01:40:23 PM
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

This site does not show Thursday as being an unusually high figure of deaths. 

There are indications that the COVID deaths may be higher because deaths from all causes are higher than they have been over the same period over the past four years.

That only goes back to yesterday... And it isn't from the same data pool, either.  I'd love to know what the Thursday numbers are.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 02:00:19 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 01:52:43 PM
That only goes back to yesterday... And it isn't from the same data pool, either.  I'd love to know what the Thursday numbers are.
I found Thursday's numbers on that site.  Shows about 1,900 new deaths on May 1, but 2,400 on the 29th.  That's a problem with so many different data sources.  No matter which source you use, the deaths rate isn't looking as good as we hoped it would be.  :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 02:04:26 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 01:52:43 PM
That only goes back to yesterday... And it isn't from the same data pool, either.  I'd love to know what the Thursday numbers are.
That site has a bar graph down near the bottom that shows reported deaths daily.  It is a different data set, that's my point.  April 30 was 2201, by no means the highest figure on THAT graph from THAT site.

The way the deaths are reported out is not universal and consistent.  The time periods used for the "day" are not consistent.  You need to look at multiple days, a five or ten day running average, or something.

The official CDC site has something like 37,000 US deaths TOTAL because of accounting differences.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 03, 2020, 02:07:30 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 01:50:42 PM
You really ought to cite a source.  I've been following this as closely as anyone and the lowest number I have ever seen is a 0.8% mortality.  That's a single study that focused on people waiting in line in grocery stores.  Not exactly a low risk group.
ok beef man cite your source that virus may be more deadly then thought and we can go from there

cause all my sources go in the opposite direction
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 02:14:14 PM
The mortality rate has been estimated all over the place obviously.  The early estimates tended to be high, 3.4% was one I recall.  I don't think we know.

The various reports that far more people have antibodies than ever had symptoms is interesting.  We need more data.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 02:17:13 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/rnAo8F5.png)

I'm still looking for data of this sort which I consider totally reliable.  There is a blip apparently beyond cases counted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 03, 2020, 02:19:09 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 02:14:14 PM
The mortality rate has been estimated all over the place obviously.  The early estimates tended to be high, 3.4% was one I recall.  I don't think we know.

The various reports that far more people have antibodies than ever had symptoms is interesting.  We need more data.
exactly

the NY testing indicates a rate below 1%

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 03, 2020, 02:21:25 PM
I dont think theres much question virus deaths are under reported but so are positive cases so no one really can be sure what the real death rate is
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 03, 2020, 02:23:16 PM
We probably won't truly know much of anything for a year. In the meantime, we can search and find all the fear-mongering in the media, all we want.

Actually you don't even need to search. Just open your home page.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 03, 2020, 02:30:50 PM
I don't know about all this testing either. How many have been completed using kits from the CCP? We already know half of their shit doesn't work. The Illinois Governor I know procured some from them. PPE too.

I talked to my buddy from West Palm this morning. He's retired from now, but his expertise was designing and building sterile factories (for Abbott), including one very large one that was built for Sagent, in China, after he left Abbott. The construction standards in China were laughable, he said, but the CCP forced him to hire Chinese contractors.

He's thinking about going back into the business as a consultant, because there will be a whole lot of new sterile factories being built here in USA, in the coming years.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 02:44:24 PM
Presuming the tests are accurate (reasonably), we would need to test say 2,000 people or so of the rep pop around the country to understand this.  One test would be to see how many of them are currently infected.  A second serological test would see how many have antibodies (and probably were infected).  You could do something with these data.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 02:50:20 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 02:04:26 PM
That site has a bar graph down near the bottom that shows reported deaths daily.  It is a different data set, that's my point.  April 30 was 2201, by no means the highest figure on THAT graph from THAT site.

The way the deaths are reported out is not universal and consistent.  The time periods used for the "day" are not consistent.  You need to look at multiple days, a five or ten day running average, or something.

The official CDC site has something like 37,000 US deaths TOTAL because of accounting differences.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm)


This is the actual CDC link: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 02:55:15 PM
They are both "actual CDC links" with different data collected with different metrics and tools.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 03:03:54 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 03, 2020, 02:07:30 PM
ok beef man cite your source that virus may be more deadly then thought and we can go from there

cause all my sources go in the opposite direction
Sources for the mortality of coronavirus have a fairly large range, but I have yet to see one lower than 0.8%.  That would be 8 times deadlier than the flu.  The data is still being worked on.  Here's a link based on the 0.8% mortality rate: https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2020-05-02/new-york-gov-andrew-cuomo-says-15-000-tested-for-coronavirus-antibodies   (https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2020-05-02/new-york-gov-andrew-cuomo-says-15-000-tested-for-coronavirus-antibodies)To get this low number you have to make wild leaps.

Extrapolating the numbers from this:  Assuming 12% have had the disease (which is very debatable):  Deaths about 25,000 (probably low and still rising).  There are about 20 Million people living in New York State. 12% of this would be 2.4M.  25,000/2.4M is a death rate of just over 1%.

your turn. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 03:06:29 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 02:14:14 PM
The mortality rate has been estimated all over the place obviously.  The early estimates tended to be high, 3.4% was one I recall.  I don't think we know.

The various reports that far more people have antibodies than ever had symptoms is interesting.  We need more data.
All of this is true.  If I had to take a shot in the dark:

Assuming adequate medical care, I think the actual death rate is in the neighborhood of 2%.  That would be 20x more deadly than the flu.  Keep in mind it is probably 2-4 times more contagious as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 03:07:49 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 03, 2020, 02:19:09 PM
exactly

the NY testing indicates a rate below 1%


see my math above.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 03:10:54 PM
https://reason.com/2020/04/17/covid-19-lethality-not-much-different-than-flu-says-new-study/ (https://reason.com/2020/04/17/covid-19-lethality-not-much-different-than-flu-says-new-study/)

I'm not posting this because I trust the numbers.

Using these data, the researchers calculated the infection fatality rate, that is, the percent of people infected with the disease who die: "A hundred deaths out of 48,000-81,000 infections corresponds to an infection fatality rate of 0.12-0.2%," they report.* That's about the same infection fatality rate the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates for seasonal influenza (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html).
The researchers conclude:
Quote
While our study was limited to Santa Clara County, it demonstrates the feasibility of seroprevalence surveys of population samples now, and in the future, to inform our understanding of this pandemic's progression, project estimates of community vulnerability, and monitor infection fatality rates in different populations over time. It is also an important tool for reducing uncertainty about the state of the epidemic, which may have important public benefits.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 03, 2020, 03:12:11 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 03, 2020, 01:17:49 PM
this old news
we discussed this in detail previously
no reason to think this virus is more then .5 to .7% deaths to positive
But the percentage for flu is something like 0.1%, isn't it?
If so, that means that this is 5 to 7 times as deadly as the average flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 03, 2020, 03:14:26 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 03, 2020, 01:41:21 PM
Wouldn't it be nice to know?
I fear our leadership has dragged its feet on testing on purpose to artificially keep the numbers low across the board.  You know, for selfish reasons. 
But that's probably just me hating the guy.  No evidence that he'd act unethically to improve his self-interests.
I think the truth, whatever it is, will be more visible on election day than it is now.  Trying to postpone bad news might work if we were in early October rather than early May.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 03:15:26 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 03, 2020, 02:21:25 PM
I dont think theres much question virus deaths are under reported but so are positive cases so no one really can be sure what the real death rate is
Perfect is the enemy of good.

Sure, we can't be certain of the death rate, but we can estimate.  For instance, we know that about 13 out of every 1000 New Yorkers has died from COVID.  That's not infected New Yorkers, that's ALL New Yorkers.  This means, even if 100% of all New Yorkers have already caught the disease, it has already surpassed the flu's death rate of 0.1%.  

In reality we know that far less than 100% of New Yorkers have had COVID.  Which leads to my math above.

This also assumes adequate medical care.  New York hasn't seen their hospitals reach their breaking point.  When that happens we can expect a far higher death rate.  Italy, for example.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 03, 2020, 03:18:17 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 03, 2020, 03:14:26 PM
I think the truth, whatever it is, will be more visible on election day than it is now.  Trying to postpone bad news might work if we were in early October rather than early May.
I'm not saying it's smart.  I posted before about this and all I got was a "huh?" from 847Bastage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 03:18:30 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 03:10:54 PM
https://reason.com/2020/04/17/covid-19-lethality-not-much-different-than-flu-says-new-study/ (https://reason.com/2020/04/17/covid-19-lethality-not-much-different-than-flu-says-new-study/)

I'm not posting this because I trust the numbers.

Using these data, the researchers calculated the infection fatality rate, that is, the percent of people infected with the disease who die: "A hundred deaths out of 48,000-81,000 infections corresponds to an infection fatality rate of 0.12-0.2%," they report.* That's about the same infection fatality rate the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates for seasonal influenza (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html).
The researchers conclude:

You should read the *Update* at the bottom of your link above.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 03, 2020, 03:20:54 PM
Widespread testing would have solved a lot of the mystery.  Hell, make it so you have to get tested to get your stimulus check.  A drive-thru, takes 10 min, you know, like how South Korea was doing in February.  

What's the point of being the richest country in the world if we're monkeys fuqing a football when it comes to important stuff like this?!?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 03, 2020, 03:21:40 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 02:14:14 PM
The mortality rate has been estimated all over the place obviously.  The early estimates tended to be high, 3.4% was one I recall.  I don't think we know.

The various reports that far more people have antibodies than ever had symptoms is interesting.  We need more data.
The Dispatch, a conservative site, has been citing known deaths-to-known infections week-daily, and the rate has been rising to the neighborhood of 5-6%.  They issue the regular disclaimer that that is an artificially high figure, as testing has only scratched the surface of those probably infected.

Here is Friday's summary:

Quote
As of Thursday night, there are now 1,069,424 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States (an increase of 29,515/2.8 percent since yesterday) and 62,996 deaths (an increase of 2,029/3.3 percent increase since yesterday), according to the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard (http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUMuOwyAQ-5pyRIEkpTlw2Et_I-IxSejyWhh2lb9f2khzsCzPeGyjEPZUTplTRdIqlNVZOfFlFEyQjix7zA_i6roVgKCcl1gakNy0d0ahS_G9wOeZLeSQQjHO1Mj0ou9CwzaIu7VC2Fl3OE0TedusqlkH0YBM0Z-fw8TLAzHX2_h1488-JpUU1a8rrdLX0SjY1tmgMj0weOIkH_gwzANjjPNxoYy23GATZxt_XrdpCDuntemKynxTkwIpsqhoqS5u32sXVG12n7TyNAK-46xdFVp0eK4QlfZgr6R4VfN5HM8MMsJf9YAI5SI_fbFxmkk3tKl3FGVIJbq4W1ezQnP8A31ufDE), leading to a mortality rate among confirmed cases of 5.9 percent (the true mortality rate is likely much lower, but it’s impossible to determine precisely due to incomplete testing regimens). Of 6,231,182 coronavirus tests conducted in the United States (205,012 conducted since yesterday), 17.2 percent have come back positive. Meanwhile, 153,947 have recovered from the virus (an increase of 33,227/27.5 percent since yesterday).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 03:21:52 PM
The update does not alter this particular estimate of mortality rates.  The figure may be wrong, obviously, but it exists, it is an example of one estimate that is close to seasonal flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 03:23:34 PM
If I had to GUESS, I'd say in the US the figure is about 1% plus or minus about 99%.  I'm joking about the + -.

I am however not sure if we aren't undercounting deaths significantly.  I'd go with one percent as a very crude guess at this point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 03, 2020, 03:25:20 PM
There's an interesting article here from the NYT (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/02/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-prediction-laurie-garrett.html).

It contains an argument that increased testing really isn't the Holy Grail, more like the Will-o-the-Wisp.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 03:34:31 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 03:21:52 PM
The update does not alter this particular estimate of mortality rates.  The figure may be wrong, obviously, but it exists, it is an example of one estimate that is close to seasonal flu.
OK, well first things to know.  reason is not a quality source, and they cherry picked data from a valid scientific study to meet their narrative.  The scientific study they cite makes no claims of a 0.1% fatality rate.

For example, you don't count total deaths at the moment when there are still thousands of sick people.  Since then, Santa Clara has 114 deaths reported, which is more than 3x the deaths at the time of this article. 

Here's the link to the actual scientific study:  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v2 (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v2)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 03, 2020, 03:38:32 PM
A - more information is always better than less information
B - massive, widespread testing would have been A LOT more useful 2 months ago than today

I think she'd easily agree with both of these.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 03, 2020, 03:39:39 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 03:21:52 PM
 The figure may be wrong, obviously, but it exists,
Can we all agree that when this is the case, it's NOT something that should be shared?  C'mon, man.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 03, 2020, 03:40:13 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 03:15:26 PM
Perfect is the enemy of good.

Sure, we can't be certain of the death rate, but we can estimate.  For instance, we know that about 13 out of every 1000 New Yorkers has died from COVID.  That's not infected New Yorkers, that's ALL New Yorkers.  This means, even if 100% of all New Yorkers have already caught the disease, it has already surpassed the flu's death rate of 0.1%. 

In reality we know that far less than 100% of New Yorkers have had COVID.  Which leads to my math above.

This also assumes adequate medical care.  New York hasn't seen their hospitals reach their breaking point.  When that happens we can expect a far higher death rate.  Italy, for example.
New York City population 8,000,000

Virus deaths reported for NYC 13,000

% = .16%

so what weve already estimated the actual death rate is between .5 and .8% 

so what did we prove
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 03:40:37 PM
I don't know anything about Reason as a source, which is why I hedged.  But it IS an "estimate" that is quite low.  It may be wrong, may be from a bad source, but it is an estimate by some folks with some pedigree.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 03, 2020, 03:41:32 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 03, 2020, 03:38:32 PM
A - more information is always better than less information
B - massive, widespread testing would have been A LOT more useful 2 months ago than today

I think she'd easily agree with both of these.
Possibly.  But was there any reasonable way that we could have had the capability of massive, widespread testing two months ago?  We still aren't close to that capability.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 03:41:43 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 03, 2020, 03:39:39 PM
Can we all agree that when this is the case, it's NOT something that should be shared?  C'mon, man.
The question asked was whether ANY estimates were below 0.8%.  I provided one.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 03, 2020, 03:43:06 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 01:41:08 PM
Was the marina closed by the marina folks or the State?
State
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 03:44:18 PM
Massive scale testing sounds fine though obviously a lot of people simply won't get tested no matter what.

If I'm asymptomatic, I'm not going to get tested, most people will think.

And of course you can be tested negative and get infected 5 minutes later.  Key personnel should be tested, no doubt.

Rep pop testing of a sample would be useful.  I don't think we can realistically expect to test 327 million people.

  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 03:44:53 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on May 03, 2020, 03:43:06 PM
State
I'd guess they just umbrellad it on some list as "non-essential" without thinking about it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 03, 2020, 03:50:25 PM
regular testing tells us nothing

if we could magically test everyone instantly it is only a point in time so we gain little information

antibody testing is what we need and a lot of it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 04:15:14 PM
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality)

Some interesting data collected there I think.  (This site is probably legit.)

I was stunned a few days ago to see Belgium having such a hard time with such a high listed mortality rate (15.7%).  The US is listed at 5.9%.  Both figures are almost certainly high because of undiagnosed cases, but then we may be under counting deaths.

I don't know why Belgium is so bad.  Germany next door is doing pretty well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 04:25:45 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 03, 2020, 03:40:13 PM
New York City population 8,000,000

Virus deaths reported for NYC 13,000

% = .16%

so what weve already estimated the actual death rate is between .5 and .8%

so what did we prove
I'm not following you here.

Let's take your numbers.  As of this exact moment, 16 out of every 10,000 New York City residents has died from Coronavirus.  That isn't infected New Yorkers, that's ALL OF NEW YORK CITY.   That means we are at a 0.16% fatality rate as a floor.

But we can still draw reasonable conclusions from this.

1.  More New Yorkers will likely die from this disease
2.  More New Yorkers will likely become infected with this disease
3.  There was a study that tested for coronavirus antibodies in NYC.  19.9% of results came back positive.  So on face value it appears that 19.9% of New Yorker city residents have already had the disease.  BUT -- We also know that the antibody test has false positives due to interactions with other virus antibodies.  We also know that this test was given to volunteers waiting in lines at stores.  Presumably if you are out and about, you are at a higher risk of being infected than if you stay at home.   This means that the 19.9% test result probably reflects a higher number than we would find in a random sample, and is also inflated by false positives.   Even so -- using this math nets us 0.16% x 5 = 0.8% mortality rate.  AS A FLOOR.
4.  Data appears to show that COVID related deaths are being undercounted.  
5.  New York city has a lower average age than the rest of the United States.  35.8 vs. 38.2 years.
6.  In general, COVID effects older people more severely than younger people.

Conclusion:  0.8% is likely the absolute floor for fatality rates.  The actual fatality rate is probably much higher.

But wait -- we can still draw more conclusions.  Worldwide, the fatality rate of confirmed cases is just under 7%.  We know this isn't an accurate fatality rate, because there simply aren't enough tests to go around, and because a few countries have been hit hard due to lack of adequate medical care.  In fact, I would say this number is inflated a few times over.

After looking at the numbers in detail I think a fatality rate of between 1.3% and 2.3% is likely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 04:27:45 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 03, 2020, 03:50:25 PM
regular testing tells us nothing

if we could magically test everyone instantly it is only a point in time so we gain little information

antibody testing is what we need and a lot of it
I'm a data guy.  I'll take anything you can give me.

If the score is 42-7 after 3 quarters, I'll have a fair amount of confidence on who will win the game, even if it is just a point in time.  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 04:30:16 PM
You are saying roughly 2% of those who contract the disease die, correct (1.3-2.3%)?

I can buy that, I do wonder how many deaths are from COVID and not in the numbers, and how many in the numbers are not really COVID.

I'd probably put wider error bars on your estimate myself, but I think your likely are pretty close.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 03, 2020, 04:33:11 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 03, 2020, 03:25:20 PM
 more like the Will-o-the-Wisp.

Jebis did you pull that out of Old Richard's Almanac.A term the original Sooners were prolly more familiar with
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 04:33:44 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 03:41:43 PM
The question asked was whether ANY estimates were below 0.8%.  I provided one.


I mean...I'm sure a grandma on Facebook is claiming all of these deaths are caused by 5G.  That wouldn't be a valid source.

Neither is biased website that retracts its own data after making bold claims about a study that are verifiably inaccurate.  Hence why I linked the study itself...

I guess I'm saying that I'm still waiting on a source for a number that low. 

I'm not saying I can't be wrong, btw.  I'm saying I haven't found any credible information that shows a death rate lower than 0.8%.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 04:34:02 PM
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/05/03/849135036/singapore-was-a-shining-star-in-covid-control-until-it-wasnt (https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/05/03/849135036/singapore-was-a-shining-star-in-covid-control-until-it-wasnt)

It is very frustrating, for me, to have such a paucity of truly reliable data on this.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 04:37:14 PM
A unique situation has arisen for quite an accurate estimate of the CFR of COVID-19. Among individuals onboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, data on the denominator are fairly robust. The outbreak of COVID-19 led passengers to be quarantined between Jan 20, and Feb 29, 2020. This scenario provided a population living in a defined territory without most other confounders, such as imported cases, defaulters of screening, or lack of testing capability. 3711 passengers and crew were onboard, of whom 705 became sick and tested positive for COVID-19 and seven died,
6 (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30244-9/fulltext#bib6)
 giving a CFR of 0·99%. If the passengers onboard were generally of an older age, the CFR in a healthy, younger population could be lower.
7 (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30244-9/fulltext#bib7)




https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30244-9/fulltext (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30244-9/fulltext)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 04:38:15 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 04:30:16 PM
You are saying roughly 2% of those who contract the disease die, correct (1.3-2.3%)?

I can buy that, I do wonder how many deaths are from COVID and not in the numbers, and how many in the numbers are not really COVID.

I'd probably put wider error bars on your estimate myself, but I think your likely are pretty close.
That would be my best estimate as a layman and data guy, with a few caveats.

1.  In America, we aren't as healthy as the Japanese.  They may very well have a lower mortality rate than we do.
2.  In America, we have a fairly sizeable older population.  (Boomers+).  Obviously a country with more younger people would likely have a lower rate.  (in PA, 65% of deaths have happened in nursing homes)
3.  Assuming our health system doesn't get overloaded and we start running out of doctors, medical equipment, etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 04:42:10 PM
The scary thing in 1918 was that the spring influenza that year was only a bit more lethal than normal.  The virus mutated to a more virulent form that call and of course run up huge numbers of deaths (est. 50 million on a much smaller population base of about 1.5 billion).

https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/why-does-the-coronavirus-fatality-rate-differ-so-m (https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/why-does-the-coronavirus-fatality-rate-differ-so-m)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 04:44:59 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 04:37:14 PM
A unique situation has arisen for quite an accurate estimate of the CFR of COVID-19. Among individuals onboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, data on the denominator are fairly robust. The outbreak of COVID-19 led passengers to be quarantined between Jan 20, and Feb 29, 2020. This scenario provided a population living in a defined territory without most other confounders, such as imported cases, defaulters of screening, or lack of testing capability. 3711 passengers and crew were onboard, of whom 705 became sick and tested positive for COVID-19 and seven died,
6 (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30244-9/fulltext#bib6)
giving a CFR of 0·99%. If the passengers onboard were generally of an older age, the CFR in a healthy, younger population could be lower.
7 (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30244-9/fulltext#bib7)




https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30244-9/fulltext (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30244-9/fulltext)
So a fatality rate of .... 1%.  Not less than 0.8%...

Nevertheless, I did find this very interesting.  My only caveat:  Although the cruise line was older, it was likely a fairly healthy population.

Also, the sample size is a bit small.  Just 2 more deaths and we are at nearly a 1.5% death rate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 05:26:56 PM
In my experience, cruise line tourists are not very healthy.  They certainly are older.  The workers are much younger of course, so you have about a third of the ship in their 20s.  I presume they were included in the sampling.  I like your estimate, but would broaden it to 1% to 4%, I'm not sure the tenth of a percent is a significant figure.  My guess is for western countries without unusual comorbidities.  Belgium apparently counts differently, so their situation may not be so dire.

There is some chance the disease is much more widely spread of course, say a factor of 5x to even 20x.  There is some chance we are undercounting fatalities by 2x.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 05:47:24 PM
About 28% of Americans are over 65 (if I did it right).  If the cruise ship passengers are all over 65 and vulnerable, we could GUESS that the other 2/3rds of the population would be unlikely to die.  So, we COULD take that 0.99% and divide by 3.

Nobody would DO that of course, but they COULD.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 03, 2020, 08:02:00 PM
so, there's not a great source of data that can be believed because of many reasons?

politics and agendas

great
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 08:33:25 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 05:26:56 PM
In my experience, cruise line tourists are not very healthy.  They certainly are older.  The workers are much younger of course, so you have about a third of the ship in their 20s.  I presume they were included in the sampling.  I like your estimate, but would broaden it to 1% to 4%, I'm not sure the tenth of a percent is a significant figure.  My guess is for western countries without unusual comorbidities.  Belgium apparently counts differently, so their situation may not be so dire.

There is some chance the disease is much more widely spread of course, say a factor of 5x to even 20x.  There is some chance we are undercounting fatalities by 2x.


I only have PA numbers, but 65% of deaths have been in nursing homes.  They are certainly healthier than that!  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 08:41:56 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 03, 2020, 08:02:00 PM
so, there's not a great source of data that can be believed because of many reasons?

politics and agendas

great
It isn't that data can't be believed.

Data is data.

Science takes no political side.  For absolutely sure this is a very deadly and serious virus.  There is some debate on HOW deadly it is, but it is deadly nonetheless. Italy did not bring itself to the brink of disaster for USA politics.  

When I say some debate, it is like debating how bad Rutgers is.  We know they are bad.  Maybe they aren't worst in the B1G this year, but they probably are.  If someone starts telling me that Rutgers is far and away the best team in the nation I can pretty assume they are off their rocker.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 03, 2020, 08:42:17 PM
If I thought a cruise ship were environmentally representative of the general population, I guess I might be more interested in this data.

But as a self-contained, tightly packed vessel with recirculated air and self-selected passenger sample that tends toward the older and less healthy, I just can't really accept it as a representative sample.  Perhaps an interesting data point, but maybe not even that.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 09:11:51 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 03, 2020, 08:42:17 PM
If I thought a cruise ship were environmentally representative of the general population, I guess I might be more interested in this data.

But as a self-contained, tightly packed vessel with recirculated air and self-selected passenger sample that tends toward the older and less healthy, I just can't really accept it as a representative sample.  Perhaps an interesting data point, but maybe not even that.



Which of the other data points do you find interesting?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 03, 2020, 09:39:20 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 03, 2020, 08:42:17 PM
If I thought a cruise ship were environmentally representative of the general population, I guess I might be more interested in this data.

But as a self-contained, tightly packed vessel with recirculated air and self-selected passenger sample that tends toward the older and less healthy, I just can't really accept it as a representative sample.  Perhaps an interesting data point, but maybe not even that.



everybody keeps pointing to NYC data but they dont represent the general population of the country either

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 03, 2020, 10:27:40 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 03, 2020, 08:02:00 PM
so, there's not a great source of data that can be believed because of many reasons?

politics and agendas

great
This is the larger problem.  
No data set can be trusted that gets laundered through news services.  
And we act like reading data directly from the source is some sort of impossible task and/or we're genuinely unable to handle scientific text.  

I'll apply your post to the larger idea of the democracy portion of our government - it only works with an informed populace. We are misinformed, on purpose, because certain huge corporations want to make more money.


I don't think it's too great a leap to say our financial system is damning our political system.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 03, 2020, 11:42:17 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 09:11:51 PM
Which of the other data points do you find interesting? 
NYC is interesting.  California is interesting.  Ohio and Texas and Florida are interesting.  These are all representative of their specific regions, localities, cultural realities.

This is not affecting all regions the same.  It's not affecting all populations the same.  Why?  

That is what interests me.  It's what interests the epidemiologists, too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on May 04, 2020, 02:02:51 AM
Iowa is interesting. I am in a county with 5 COVID-19 confirmed cases. I think my own secretary had it a month ago, she tested negative to flu and strep with respiratory symptoms. Came into work 1-day while symptomatic. She cleared the dictation in 1.5 hours and left and I told her the office policy of staying at home whilst sick and she took off the rest of the week. I didn't get whatever she had. Not all COVID-19 cases are confirmed. I don't want this in my office. We are by appointment only. We will wear masks if you come in here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 04, 2020, 02:35:54 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 03, 2020, 09:39:20 PM
everybody keeps pointing to NYC data but they dont represent the general population of the country either


I think Illinois is the state most similar to the US as a whole, including many demographics.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 04, 2020, 03:26:18 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 03, 2020, 03:50:25 PM
regular testing tells us nothing

if we could magically test everyone instantly it is only a point in time so we gain little information

antibody testing is what we need and a lot of it
Thanks, professor.  With this gem, you could get a job in the White House.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 04, 2020, 08:22:15 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 04, 2020, 03:26:18 AM
Thanks, professor.  With this gem, you could get a job in the White House.
glad you agree 

thanks for the pep talk
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 04, 2020, 08:27:16 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 04, 2020, 03:26:18 AM
Thanks, professor.  With this gem, you could get a job in the White House.
Toby the Astronaut thanx for that smashing/insightful response
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 04, 2020, 08:38:37 AM
Quote from: utee94 on May 03, 2020, 11:42:17 PM
NYC is interesting.  California is interesting.  Ohio and Texas and Florida are interesting.  These are all representative of their specific regions, localities, cultural realities.

This is not affecting all regions the same.  It's not affecting all populations the same.  Why? 

That is what interests me.  It's what interests the epidemiologists, too.
It isn’t that different. Would Rutgers have finished last place in the Big 12?  Or next to last?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 08:47:05 AM
The more I travel, the more I realize people everywhere are "the same" at the core.  Cultures and habits can of course be quite different.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 04, 2020, 09:57:44 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 04, 2020, 02:35:54 AM
I think Illinois is the state most similar to the US as a whole, including many demographics.
Then God help us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 10:11:24 AM
https://flowingdata.com/2017/02/22/states-most-similar-to-the-us-overall/ (https://flowingdata.com/2017/02/22/states-most-similar-to-the-us-overall/)

The states most similar demographically to today’s America: Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Virginia.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 10:12:54 AM
Virginia has gone through a lot of "iterations".  Leading original colony.  Leading original Confederate state.  Pretty down economy for a long time.  Now a purple state in effect, still with a lot of country.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 04, 2020, 10:22:37 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on May 04, 2020, 02:02:51 AM
Iowa is interesting. I am in a county with 5 COVID-19 confirmed cases. I think my own secretary had it a month ago, she tested negative to flu and strep with respiratory symptoms. Came into work 1-day while symptomatic. She cleared the dictation in 1.5 hours and left and I told her the office policy of staying at home whilst sick and she took off the rest of the week. I didn't get whatever she had. Not all COVID-19 cases are confirmed. I don't want this in my office. We are by appointment only. We will wear masks if you come in here.
We may hit 3000 cases in my county today....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 04, 2020, 10:27:33 AM
1464 cases in Travis County (Austin proper and some of the surrounding suburbs).  But like other places, we're not doing a ton of testing, so I doubt that number is even close to accurate.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 10:32:06 AM
My kid clearly had it (recovered now) and would not be counted.  New Braunfels.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 04, 2020, 10:40:42 AM
Quote from: utee94 on May 04, 2020, 10:27:33 AM
1464 cases in Travis County (Austin proper and some of the surrounding suburbs).  But like other places, we're not doing a ton of testing, so I doubt that number is even close to accurate.


And imagine, there are those out there with no interest in ramping up testing....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 04, 2020, 10:41:57 AM
I looked at the Phoenix zip code map of most cases - and mine isn't on it, but the one directly north of me has almost 100 cases.  
I'll stop using the gas station on that border.  Otherwise, I don't know what else to do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 04, 2020, 10:47:39 AM
Quote from: utee94 on May 04, 2020, 10:27:33 AM
1464 cases in Travis County (Austin proper and some of the surrounding suburbs).  But like other places, we're not doing a ton of testing, so I doubt that number is even close to accurate.


Its true that Texas ranks low on the testing meter but only 9 states have a better death to population number

hope this continues
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 04, 2020, 11:15:28 AM
Tulsa County has 607 confirmed case, 421 recovered, 34 deaths.  5.6% deaths/confirmed cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 11:22:56 AM
https://www.ajc.com/news/local/lenox-phipps-among-metro-atlanta-malls-set-reopen-today/l25yH36nL59xhJJl5mMwLJ/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/local/lenox-phipps-among-metro-atlanta-malls-set-reopen-today/l25yH36nL59xhJJl5mMwLJ/)

Some major ATL malls set to reopen.  I can't imagine going shopping for say shoes right now, but I guess some will.  It's probably "OK" healthwise, but with some risk, and you don't need shoes.  Confirmed cases appears to be drifting down even with more testing, which is good, we wouldn't have any signal yet about how the reopening is impacting this of course.

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/IjORDGLckdP3RI9hJU5CWO/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/IjORDGLckdP3RI9hJU5CWO/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 11:31:39 AM
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america)

This is weird, to me, they are predicting a bed shortage on April 19.  I think we missed any bed shortage, and in any event why "predict" something in the past?  They also predict 72,433 deaths, which is fine, except we're already well into the 60s (68,715) with time to go, and that leveling may not occur obviously.

I probably won't use this site any more.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 04, 2020, 11:32:41 AM
So... I've changed my position.

It's time to open up. Everything. No restrictions. Restaurants, bars, nightclubs, travel, concerts/sporting events/churches/gatherings. Let 'er rip.

Now, some of you might find that surprising coming from me. After all, I've consistently argued that this appears to be a very transmissible disease, such that there's a good chance US infection rates if we let 'er rip will reach at least if not above the 2009 H1N1 rates (60M estimated infected in the US). And I've also argued that the true mortality rate is many multiples of the seasonal flu.

So doesn't this mean that I'm arguing that we should open up fully, and thus consigning hundreds of thousands of people to die?

Well, yeah. But the truth is that people are tired of this lockdown. It's so last month. I mean, people can try to put away their selfishness to help their fellow man for a little while, but 6 weeks? C'mon, we're Americans. We want to go to the beach. We want to go to the restaurant. And masks are terribly unfashionable.

Most living American have never known anything truly bad in their lives. Sure, 9/11 was bad, and it created a bunch of fear, but it was a 1-day event and created a rallying point--but the ensuing war didn't really result in any personal sacrifice. The last time they've every truly had to sacrifice might have been the Vietnam War, when we still had a military draft. But... That was a war fought by those not well off enough to be in college, or secure deferments, and the war was fought "over there". Before that, maybe WWII, when we actually had full society mobilization, rationing, etc. But those alive during WWII and those few who were alive during the Great Depression or the Spanish Flu are now too few to make a difference.

We simply cannot fathom that this is bad enough to change our behavior. And I mean that literally. We're so comfortable in our lives, in the power of our medicine, that we simply cannot wrap our brains around what a couple hundred thousand [or more] deaths over the span of a few months means to our way of life. Thus, we refuse to change our way of life to avoid it. 

So I give up... Maybe America needs a good ol' kick in the face. We haven't proven we deserve better.
https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/oc-restaurant-hits-capacity-after-opening-doors-ignoring-stay-at-home-orders/2356303/?amp
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/01/us/california-orange-county-injunction-beaches/index.html
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/30/michigan-protests-coronavirus-lockdown-armed-capitol
https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility
https://www.safegraph.com/dashboard/covid19-shelter-in-place?s=US&d=04-30-2020&t=counties&m=percent
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/01/masks-politics-coronavirus-227765
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 11:36:13 AM
Many Americans simply will not stay battened down much longer.  Many will take some precautions, and businesses will as well, but I sense folks already are getting back to New Normal around here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 04, 2020, 12:15:49 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 04, 2020, 11:32:41 AM
So... I've changed my position.

It's time to open up. Everything. No restrictions. Restaurants, bars, nightclubs, travel, concerts/sporting events/churches/gatherings. Let 'er rip.

Now, some of you might find that surprising coming from me. After all, I've consistently argued that this appears to be a very transmissible disease, such that there's a good chance US infection rates if we let 'er rip will reach at least if not above the 2009 H1N1 rates (60M estimated infected in the US). And I've also argued that the true mortality rate is many multiples of the seasonal flu.

So doesn't this mean that I'm arguing that we should open up fully, and thus consigning hundreds of thousands of people to die?

Well, yeah. But the truth is that people are tired of this lockdown. It's so last month. I mean, people can try to put away their selfishness to help their fellow man for a little while, but 6 weeks? C'mon, we're Americans. We want to go to the beach. We want to go to the restaurant. And masks are terribly unfashionable.

Most living American have never known anything truly bad in their lives. Sure, 9/11 was bad, and it created a bunch of fear, but it was a 1-day event and created a rallying point--but the ensuing war didn't really result in any personal sacrifice. The last time they've every truly had to sacrifice might have been the Vietnam War, when we still had a military draft. But... That was a war fought by those not well off enough to be in college, or secure deferments, and the war was fought "over there". Before that, maybe WWII, when we actually had full society mobilization, rationing, etc. But those alive during WWII and those few who were alive during the Great Depression or the Spanish Flu are now too few to make a difference.

We simply cannot fathom that this is bad enough to change our behavior. And I mean that literally. We're so comfortable in our lives, in the power of our medicine, that we simply cannot wrap our brains around what a couple hundred thousand [or more] deaths over the span of a few months means to our way of life. Thus, we refuse to change our way of life to avoid it. 

So I give up... Maybe America needs a good ol' kick in the face. We haven't proven we deserve better.
https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/oc-restaurant-hits-capacity-after-opening-doors-ignoring-stay-at-home-orders/2356303/?amp
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/01/us/california-orange-county-injunction-beaches/index.html
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/30/michigan-protests-coronavirus-lockdown-armed-capitol
https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility
https://www.safegraph.com/dashboard/covid19-shelter-in-place?s=US&d=04-30-2020&t=counties&m=percent
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/01/masks-politics-coronavirus-227765

so bingo youre the Pres

what plan would you follow for reopening that we arent doing now
or would you simply stay closed until a vaccine or drug appears
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 04, 2020, 12:31:04 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 04, 2020, 12:15:49 PM
so bingo youre the Pres

what plan would you follow for reopening that we arent doing now
or would you simply stay closed until a vaccine or drug appears
It doesn't matter what the plan is if it isn't followed... And it's not being followed. 

The links I posted:


So if we're not, as Americans, actually going to follow the rules, why have them?



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 12:51:12 PM
We largely follow rules that make sense to us.  When they don't, we drive faster than the 70 mph speed limit.

We also don't deal well with technical matters and things where some pain NOW reduces pain LATER (deficit spending).  We also don't check data very well and believe the latest FB rumor that memes up.

We also verb a lot of nouns.

Other countries are opening up, it's not as if the US is some complete outlier.  Each governor is calling it for his or her state.  As I've noted, restaurants here are ABLE to open, but most have remained closed.  That suggests something.  

It is also true that we can't stay closed for months and months, the economy would simply collapse, it may collapse any way.  I'm talking starvation level collapse and hyperinflation, a bad scene.  Right now we're floating long on fiat money giveaways and people not being forced to pay rent.  At some point, the folks producing food will stop producing because they can't sell and get food to a market anywhere or money has no value and we're bartering.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 04, 2020, 01:02:56 PM
There are 6 cases in my Florida zip code and 66 in my Illinois zip code. I can't find a zip code map for Kenosha County, WI, but the county has 534 cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 04, 2020, 01:05:31 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 12:51:12 PM


It is also true that we can't stay closed for months and months, the economy would simply collapse, it may collapse any way.  I'm talking starvation level collapse and hyperinflation, a bad scene.  Right now we're floating long on fiat money giveaways and people not being forced to pay rent.  At some point, the folks producing food will stop producing because they can't sell and get food to a market anywhere or money has no value and we're bartering.


Maybe Americans will finally understand that we should be actively trying to reduce the deficit and build social safety nets during periods of economic prosperity, so that we can weather the inevitable economic downturn.

What am I saying?  Whew I made a funny there.  We aren't gonna change.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 01:07:16 PM
Yeah, I see no practicable way we would sacrifice during good times to put up funds for bad times, much less try and reduce the deficit in good times.


Anyone trying to do that for real would not get reelected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 01:11:04 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/azsAaqq.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 04, 2020, 01:11:17 PM
Perhaps if the federal and state governments had sold the lockdowns as necessary to eradicate the disease, rather than a means to flatten the curve specifically to avoid overloading the hospitals, people would be more willing to remain isolated.

But people are looking around at empty hospitals, seeing nurses and staffers actually getting laid off due to lack of need, and thinking to themselves-- well, I guess we did it.  We flattened the curve and didn't overwhelm the hospitals.  Job well done.

If eradicating the virus by preventing ALL spread, for all of eternity, was the goal, then they probably should have stated that at the outset.  Americans are goal-driven, and outside of hotspots like New York, the goal has been achieved.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 01:14:45 PM
My concern is whether we hold immunity for any period of time.  If not ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 04, 2020, 01:16:27 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 01:14:45 PM
My concern is whether we hold immunity for any period of time.  If not ...
If not then there's no point to any of this really.  Get on with life, because the disease is going to do what it will regardless of our actions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 04, 2020, 01:23:16 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 04, 2020, 12:31:04 PM
It doesn't matter what the plan is if it isn't followed... And it's not being followed.

The links I posted:

  • Local restaurant (and other businesses) are opening in contravention of the orders. They're basically saying "I dare you to shut us down."
  • Moron protestors, 2-3000 of them, standing around together mostly without masks or any protective gear protesting a BEACH shutdown of all things... This isn't about economics, it's about leisure at the beach. A week after thousands and thousands swarmed the beaches.
  • Additional moron protestors.
  • Link to Apple data which suggests (based on the number of people asking for directions on their phones) that people have frankly tired of the lockdown and they're returning to being out and about.
  • Additional data showing that after a peak of people actually following stay-at-home on April 12, they've gradually gotten less and less willing to do so and have gotten almost halfway back to pre-restriction behavior.
  • A story about how COVID-19, which should have been a wake-up call to ALL of us that we're in this together, has become a political football being defined down partisan lines.

So if we're not, as Americans, actually going to follow the rules, why have them?




so your not against reopening if done right
youre just against people not following the reopening rules
is that it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 04, 2020, 01:49:28 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 04, 2020, 01:23:16 PM
so your not against reopening if done right
youre just against people not following the reopening rules
is that it
I actually think, given that we have "flattened the curve" and avoided overload of the health care system, that a controlled and careful reopening SHOULD happen, and it should happen soon if not immediately. Even here in California. 

I just see the people who are basically taking it upon themselves to reopen, to take [and make their customers take] basically no precautions whatsoever, and I think I'm not wrong in calling some of those people and their customers selfish assholes. And I'm angry at them. 







Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 01:51:42 PM
Imagine that the median intelligence in the US is an IQ of 100 (whatever IQ means) and a good percentage of the country has an IQ less than 90, maybe most of us included, I don't know.

We do send nearly 70% of HS grads to college.  

This is a funny place to live.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 04, 2020, 01:52:16 PM
Florida is in phase 1 starting today, except for Dade, Broward and Palm Beach. Here are some excerpts. 

Opening up will be:

State Parks
Elective surgery
Restaurants (25% capacity indoor, 6' spacing outdoor, no bar seating)
Retail stores (25% capacity)
Museums (25 % capacity)

Staying shut:

Bars where 50% or more revenue is booze
Gyms
Movie Theaters
Salons / Barbers
Vacation rentals
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 04, 2020, 01:57:23 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 04, 2020, 01:52:16 PM
Florida is in phase 1 starting today, except for Dade, Broward and Palm Beach. Here are some excerpts.

Opening up will be:

State Parks
Elective surgery
Restaurants (25% capacity indoor, 6' spacing outdoor, no bar seating)
Retail stores (25% capacity)
Museums (25 % capacity)

Staying shut:

Bars where 50% or more revenue is booze
Gyms
Movie Theaters
Salons / Barbers
Vacation rentals
Yup, that's almost exactly the same as Texas.

Except our state parks are only open for day use right now though, no camping.

Which sucks because I'd probably have just been working from my favorite state park for the past month if it were open.  I can work from anywhere, kids can do online school from anywhere, and my wife isn't working so no issues there.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 04, 2020, 02:05:13 PM
They need to open one of a Library,Bar or Race Track lest I lose it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 04, 2020, 02:29:47 PM
you mean a bar?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 04, 2020, 02:36:09 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 12:51:12 PM
It is also true that we can't stay closed for months and months, the economy would simply collapse, it may collapse any way.  I'm talking starvation level collapse and hyperinflation, a bad scene.  Right now we're floating long on fiat money giveaways and people not being forced to pay rent.  At some point, the folks producing food will stop producing because they can't sell and get food to a market anywhere or money has no value and we're bartering.
It's already happening. 

Healthy pigs being killed as meatpacking backlog hits farms (https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/healthy-pigs-killed-meatpacking-backlog-hits-farms-70453199)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 04, 2020, 02:39:36 PM
I was offered a hog for $125 this weekend

my freezer is full

I'd have to butcher it myself or with friends.  But, I've done that before.  When I was younger.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 04, 2020, 02:43:19 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 04, 2020, 01:11:17 PM
Perhaps if the federal and state governments had sold the lockdowns as necessary to eradicate the disease, rather than a means to flatten the curve specifically to avoid overloading the hospitals, people would be more willing to remain isolated.

But people are looking around at empty hospitals, seeing nurses and staffers actually getting laid off due to lack of need, and thinking to themselves-- well, I guess we did it.  We flattened the curve and didn't overwhelm the hospitals.  Job well done.

If eradicating the virus by preventing ALL spread, for all of eternity, was the goal, then they probably should have stated that at the outset.  Americans are goal-driven, and outside of hotspots like New York, the goal has been achieved.

Exactly. The government has been sending mixed messages about this thing from the start. We were told that there would be millions of American's dying from the virus and the hospitals would be overrun. We had to shut down for a short time to prevent this from happening, so we did.

Then after we pretty much came to a standstill, millions being laid off, small business closing, now they move the goal posts. Now we have to stay under our beds in fear until we have a vaccine that could take over a year to develop. Those of us paying attention said NO! We did what you asked and it's time to go back to work. Sure some will get it and a few may die. But that happens everyday with all sorts of preventable causes. We could almost eliminate automobile deaths if we just lower the speed limit to 5 mph. Why not? 

The fact is that there is always risk. Just waking up every morning puts you at risk for all kinds of problems. We will NEVER eradicate risks in our lives. We cannot hide forever in our homes hoping not to get sick. Someone has to work to put food or our plates and a roof over our heads. And in so doing, there will be risks. We just need to learn to live our lives in spite of the risks. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 04, 2020, 02:48:00 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 04, 2020, 01:49:28 PM
I actually think, given that we have "flattened the curve" and avoided overload of the health care system, that a controlled and careful reopening SHOULD happen, and it should happen soon if not immediately. Even here in California.

I just see the people who are basically taking it upon themselves to reopen, to take [and make their customers take] basically no precautions whatsoever, and I think I'm not wrong in calling some of those people and their customers selfish assholes. And I'm angry at them.
And I don't know your specific situation, but I am pretty sure you are still getting a paycheck. There are many people out there that are NOT getting paid, trying to figure out how they are going to pay the rent, utilities and put food on the table while looking at employment prospects and competing with 21 million others doing the same. 

Also, there are those of us that live in areas that have a few cases of the virus, but have bigger issues with people committing suicide because they can't cope with it. Or those that need to see a doctor for other than Covid reasons, but are told to wait it out at home. Are those people assholes too? 

Again, I don't know your situation, but not everyone shares your situation either. Don't blame those that have needs different than yours. Especially since the stated goad of the shut down has been accomplished. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 04, 2020, 02:50:40 PM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 04, 2020, 02:36:09 PM
It's already happening.

Healthy pigs being killed as meatpacking backlog hits farms (https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/healthy-pigs-killed-meatpacking-backlog-hits-farms-70453199)
That's the sad bit here... Costco just announced no more than 3 fresh meat items per customer per visit. So we may have meat shortages at the retail end.

So we have too much meat [farmer], but not enough meat [retail/consumer], because the meat packing plants can't provide enough throughput to get the animal to the customer. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 04, 2020, 02:54:04 PM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 04, 2020, 02:43:19 PM
Exactly. The government has been sending mixed messages about this thing from the start. 

this is what our government and most governments do
they are usually looking for clues as to what is most popular
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 03:05:57 PM
The wife was telling me the news from France and how Macron is getting pilloried in the media.

This is not some singular American thing.  It probably doesn't happen much in North Korea though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 04, 2020, 03:13:58 PM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 04, 2020, 02:48:00 PM
And I don't know your specific situation, but I am pretty sure you are still getting a paycheck. There are many people out there that are NOT getting paid, trying to figure out how they are going to pay the rent, utilities and put food on the table while looking at employment prospects and competing with 21 million others doing the same.

Also, there are those of us that live in areas that have a few cases of the virus, but have bigger issues with people committing suicide because they can't cope with it. Or those that need to see a doctor for other than Covid reasons, but are told to wait it out at home. Are those people assholes too?

Again, I don't know your situation, but not everyone shares your situation either. Don't blame those that have needs different than yours. Especially since the stated goad of the shut down has been accomplished.
I'll admit; I'm in a lucky position. Neither I nor my wife have been impacted. 

But when you read these quotes (https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/oc-restaurant-hits-capacity-after-opening-doors-ignoring-stay-at-home-orders/2356303/?amp), what do you think?


Quote
[color=rgba(13, 13, 13, 0.9)]With the sun shining on the Nomads deck Sunday, customers said they are tired of being stuck at home.[/color]
[color=rgba(13, 13, 13, 0.9)]"I miss the interaction and being out," Lark Sampson, a customer said.[/color]
[color=rgba(13, 13, 13, 0.9)]Rich Barry, another customer, added, "It feels extraordinary to be in a restaurant because it’s been six weeks."[/color]
[color=rgba(13, 13, 13, 0.9)]They're just tired of it. [/color]


Quote
[color=rgba(13, 13, 13, 0.9)]Inside the restaurant, [owner] Gourey said he’s telling people to practice social distancing, but he says he believes he and his staff are young and healthy enough to survive COVID-19 if they contract the virus.[/color]
[color=rgba(13, 13, 13, 0.9)]"Six weeks it plenty of time, that’s what I believe," Gourey said. "On a sunny day like this, no one is at risk."[/color]
So a restaurant owner is apparently an epidemiologist, and that he and his staff are young and healthy enough that it's no big deal if they get it and "six weeks is plenty of time"... And clearly he's such an expert that he thinks on a sunny day, "no one is at risk."

The reason we have epidemiologists is because guys like this are clearly not in any position to evaluate the risk of infectious diseases during a pandemic.

I think starting to open things up makes sense, if people actually take the risks seriously and business owners try to protect themselves, their employees, and their customers as best they can. Yes, people will get it, and yes, people will die. But guys like this will make things worse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 03:17:51 PM
Guys like that would be breaking regulations and subject to fines and closure by the B of H.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 04, 2020, 03:18:50 PM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 04, 2020, 02:43:19 PM
Exactly. The government has been sending mixed messages about this thing from the start. We were told that there would be millions of American's dying from the virus and the hospitals would be overrun. We had to shut down for a short time to prevent this from happening, so we did.

Then after we pretty much came to a standstill, millions being laid off, small business closing, now they move the goal posts. Now we have to stay under our beds in fear until we have a vaccine that could take over a year to develop. Those of us paying attention said NO! We did what you asked and it's time to go back to work. Sure some will get it and a few may die. But that happens everyday with all sorts of preventable causes. We could almost eliminate automobile deaths if we just lower the speed limit to 5 mph. Why not?

The fact is that there is always risk. Just waking up every morning puts you at risk for all kinds of problems. We will NEVER eradicate risks in our lives. We cannot hide forever in our homes hoping not to get sick. Someone has to work to put food or our plates and a roof over our heads. And in so doing, there will be risks. We just need to learn to live our lives in spite of the risks.
1918 is going to repeat itself, methinks.   They opened up too early, hit a second wave, and lost 200,000 additional American lives over the next 2 years.  I guess if you take the viewpoint that a second wave is inevitable, than I suppose it wouldn't matter if we open up early or not. 

Let's talk about opening up for a minute, and what that could mean.

Worst case scenario is this:  We open up too early, we hit a second, more severe round, our hospitals get overwhelmed, and we have to go back to strict social distancing or somehow live with a death toll of hundreds of thousands.  You think the economy is bad now?  I can't even begin to speculate how bad it would be.

Best case scenario:  We do a controlled opening, Coronavirus never really goes away, but also doesn't overwhelm the hospitals.  Death tolls continue to be in the 500-3000 per day range.  People learn to live with social distancing and make the best of it.  Restaurants and other businesses try and survive with a fraction of pre-outbreak customers.  Almost a guaranteed recession.  Major gatherings of people is still probably prohibited for the next few months, and possibly years.

Now, if we keep up with strict social distancing:

Best case scenario:  It becomes harder and harder for the virus to be transmitted because there are few possibilities for transmission out there.  We reach the ability to test quickly and in massive amounts.  Eventually we reach a level where we can start tracing individual outbreaks of COVID again.  We implement mandatory testing and possible quarantine periods for international travel.  Eventually we reach the level of New Zealand, South Korea, Iceland, China, Switzerland, Portugal, etc. etc. etc.  At infection rates this low we can open our country up without restriction, and we have saved many lives.  This is achievable as evidenced by the success of other countries.  We enter a small recession, but we come out of it without too much permanent damage.

Worst case scenario:  Coronavirus cases never decrease and remain flat for months.  Hospitals are not overwhelmed.  Thousands of lives are saved.  Economy is at 2008 levels, and looks to be stuck in a rut for the forseeable future.  Millions of Americans are in financial disarray.  It is a turd.

For me, the risk of opening up early is far too great, and the reward isn't worth it.  It isn't like the economy is going to suddenly turn into candy and unicorns because we opened up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 03:23:39 PM
The second wave in 1918 was not the same flu, it had mutated into a much more deadly strain.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 03:25:36 PM
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/04/849989973/millions-return-to-work-in-italy-after-weeks-of-lockdown (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/04/849989973/millions-return-to-work-in-italy-after-weeks-of-lockdown)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 04, 2020, 03:28:26 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 03:17:51 PM
Guys like that would be breaking regulations and subject to fines and closure by the B of H.
You would think so. But with the, erm, demographics of Orange County, my guess is that the county officials don't want to enforce it either. This county doesn't have a lot of Gavin Newsom fans, I'm sayin'... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 03:32:22 PM
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-scientists-think-the-novel-coronavirus-developed-naturally-not-in-a-chinese-lab/ (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-scientists-think-the-novel-coronavirus-developed-naturally-not-in-a-chinese-lab/)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 04, 2020, 03:36:02 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 03:23:39 PM
The second wave in 1918 was not the same flu, it had mutated into a much more deadly strain.
This is true, but a second wave, nonetheless.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 04, 2020, 03:38:18 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 04, 2020, 03:36:02 PM
This is true, but a second wave, nonetheless.
Actually, after researching it, we were hit by a THIRD wave...first wave was a bad flu, second wave was the mutated flue, third wave was just as deadly as the second.

I knew my memory was bad, I was certain a second wave of the bad stuff hit, didn't realize it was actually a third wave.  Learned some history, though, so that's a win.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 04, 2020, 03:40:27 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 03:32:22 PM
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-scientists-think-the-novel-coronavirus-developed-naturally-not-in-a-chinese-lab/ (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-scientists-think-the-novel-coronavirus-developed-naturally-not-in-a-chinese-lab/)


Still absolutely zero evidence it came from a Chinese lab.  I have no idea why this became a thing in the first place.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 03:42:40 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 04, 2020, 03:40:27 PM
Still absolutely zero evidence it came from a Chinese lab.  I have no idea why this became a thing in the first place.
Sure you do.  We all need a scapegoat.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 03:44:46 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/YcEET98.png)

There were 3 different waves of illness during the pandemic, starting in March 1918 and subsiding by summer of  1919. The pandemic peaked in the U.S. during the second wave, in the fall of 1918. This highly fatal second wave was responsible for most of the U.S. deaths attributed to the pandemic.

Seasonal impacts.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 04, 2020, 03:45:56 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 04, 2020, 03:40:27 PM
Still absolutely zero evidence it came from a Chinese lab.  I have no idea why this became a thing in the first place.
Because China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 03:46:30 PM
I recall walking among the grave markers in the Belleau Wood Cemetery and remarking to the wife how many were dated 1919, and after Nov. 11, 2018.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 03:49:19 PM
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3206319/ (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3206319/)

Most readers know George Santayana’s admonition “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it” [1 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3206319/#R1)]. Fewer are likely to know George Bernard Shaw’s observation that “We learn from history that men never learn anything from history” [2 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3206319/#R2)].
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 04, 2020, 03:49:51 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 03:42:40 PM
Sure you do.  We all need a scapegoat.
You don't need a fantasy about a Chinese lab.  China's lax health standards made it likely that they would have an outbreak like this.  They had been warned many times over this could happen.  Heck, this wasn't even their first rodeo with a pandemic.

Blame China all you want.  It's legit.  But don't invent some crazy story about a virus escaping from a lab in order to mask 5G and expose QANON and keep the deep state globalists in power via Illuminati intervention, in which the real goal is to hide how Bill Gates is implanting microchips via vaccines so that we remain good sheep and fail to realize the reality of a flat earth.

I actually kinda sounded like Alex Jones on that.  Pretty proud of myself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 03:54:39 PM
That was great.  I copied and posted it on Facebook as something I heard from this dude.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 04, 2020, 03:55:21 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 04, 2020, 03:49:51 PM

I actually kinda sounded like Alex Jones on that.  Pretty proud of myself.
That guy's a dick. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 04, 2020, 03:58:24 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 04, 2020, 03:18:50 PM
Let's talk about opening up for a minute, and what that could mean.

Worst case scenario is this:  We open up too early, we hit a second, more severe round, our hospitals get overwhelmed, and we have to go back to strict social distancing or somehow live with a death toll of hundreds of thousands.  You think the economy is bad now?  I can't even begin to speculate how bad it would be.

Best case scenario:  We do a controlled opening, Coronavirus never really goes away, but also doesn't overwhelm the hospitals.  Death tolls continue to be in the 500-3000 per day range.  People learn to live with social distancing and make the best of it.  Restaurants and other businesses try and survive with a fraction of pre-outbreak customers.  Almost a guaranteed recession.  Major gatherings of people is still probably prohibited for the next few months, and possibly years.
The point of my long screed was that Americans will not stand for strict social distancing over the long haul. People are already starting to self-open--stay-at-home percentage peaked on Apr 12, Apple mobility trends show a trough in requested directions about the same time and significant uptick since then, etc--so it seems that even if there's nowhere to go people were going out more. And then we're starting to already see direct civil disobedience regarding businesses opening in direct contravention of the orders. So I think we can remove "strict social distancing" from the equation. 

The other point of my screed was that if we don't control the opening at all, we end up in your worst case scenario. People will just frankly give up completely on social distancing and it could get really ugly.

So a controlled opening is about all we have as an option. You have to give people something to remain hopeful, but if you can do it slowly perhaps you can limit any explosion in cases and keep it manageable. This won't go away, so the "best case scenario" you highlight is about all we can hope for.

As odd as it seems to say this, I think Florida is actually a really good example of this. Slow and careful, but if you show people progress they might not completely lose their minds. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 04:04:15 PM
Social distancing is not that hard for us.  Now, if kids go to nightclubs again .... concerts, athletic events, and crowds......

Then we are hoping for herd immunity and the numbers would be extreme.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 04, 2020, 04:20:11 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-04/scientists-create-antibody-that-defeats-coronavirus-in-lab?utm_campaign=news&utm_medium=bd&utm_source=applenews (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-04/scientists-create-antibody-that-defeats-coronavirus-in-lab?utm_campaign=news&utm_medium=bd&utm_source=applenews)


Scientists created a monoclonal antibody that can defeat the new coronavirus in the lab, an early but promising step in efforts to find treatments and curb the pandemic’s spread.

The experimental antibody has neutralized the virus in cell cultures. While that’s early in the drug development process -- before animal research and human trials -- the antibody may help prevent or treat Covid-19 and related diseases in the future, either alone or in a drug combination, according to a study published Monday in the journal Nature Communications.

More research is needed to see whether the findings are confirmed in a clinical setting and how precisely the antibody defeats the virus, Berend-Jan Bosch of Utrecht University in the Netherlands and colleagues wrote in the paper.


The antibody known as 47D11 targets the spike protein that gives the new coronavirus a crown-like shape and lets it enter human cells. In the Utrecht experiments, it didn’t just defeat the virus responsible for Covid-19 but also a cousin equipped with similar spike proteins, which causes Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or SARS.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 04:27:21 PM
I guess we'll see a big boost in funding for this in the future.  Maybe I should go back to work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 04:36:19 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/us-treasury-seeks-to-borrow-a-record-3-trillion-this-quarter.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/us-treasury-seeks-to-borrow-a-record-3-trillion-this-quarter.html)

One quarter, $3 trillion borrowed, not just spent, but borrowed, from someone, somewhere, probably mostly the Fed with Fed money.  At historically low interest rates.  This to me is weird.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 04, 2020, 04:46:33 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 11:31:39 AM
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america)

This is weird, to me, they are predicting a bed shortage on April 19.  I think we missed any bed shortage, and in any event why "predict" something in the past?  They also predict 72,433 deaths, which is fine, except we're already well into the 60s (68,715) with time to go, and that leveling may not occur obviously.

I probably won't use this site any more.


So... It changed a little today. They're now projecting 134,475 total deaths by Aug 4.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on May 04, 2020, 04:54:45 PM
This pandemic has laid bare the lack of faith in our institutions in this country.

In the best case scenario (best reasonable case), this was going to be awful. The chances that everyone played this just right from the beginning--no matter who--were low. But assuming that it isn't handled perfectly, not because of malice, but because of the reality of how the world works, one of the real tragedies is everyone's mistrust of others, based largely on politics and nothing else.

I'm not immune to it. My biases aren't hard to find, so I'll state one of them bluntly here: if this White House says it, I don't believe it. Full stop. Not unless it gets independently verified.

In different times I would not have assumed that the administration's response to a terrible pandemic was automatically not just questionable, but likely false. I thought both Bush administrations did a lot of things wrong, but in the immediate aftermath of emergencies, I believed they were doing all they could to respond as effectively as possible. I believe that the career government officials still are, but my trust in the current administration is so low that even in the face of an actual emergency--like this one--I doubt its motives.

My response is not a healthy one in a democracy (or any government, really).

Although I believe this administration is uniquely untrustworthy, I also recognize that there has been an intentional attack on our faith in our governmental institutions, and in many ways where we find ourselves today is an entirely predictable result of that attack.

This is not to say that we should just trust our government. Clearly we have an obligation to test it to make sure that those we put in charge are acting in We the People's interest, not their own. Reagan's admonition to "trust, but verify" rings true.

I remain surprised that the response to a pandemic is so highly politicized. It isn't as though our government made some deliberate decisions that created this pandemic. It was always going to be reactive, not proactive. And yet--even in this reactive mode, a complete lack of trust (whether it's for the White House--in my case--or for governors--in other cases). Whatever the case, right now there are large blocks of people who don't believe that the democracy they elected works for them. That is deeply concerning. I still believe in the electoral process for selecting my government, but I fear that too many others do not.

I assume this pandemic--as all others--will pass, or at least come under control. My bigger concern is the health of our democracy when our levels of vitriol and lack of trust are so high.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 04, 2020, 04:56:22 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 04, 2020, 04:46:33 PM
So... It changed a little today. They're now projecting 134,475 total deaths by Aug 4.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america)
I think that projection is reasonable

In order to go from 67000 to 134475 in 92 days you would have to avg about 750 a day which would be less then half our current daily average

so its very possible IMHO
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 05:02:52 PM
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-immune-response/610228/?fbclid=IwAR29KTGlilpUxuohpdXMeYZZA4hDFOg6FE5z5ypygKzkjqu3T4Ea0H-yw3o (https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-immune-response/610228/?fbclid=IwAR29KTGlilpUxuohpdXMeYZZA4hDFOg6FE5z5ypygKzkjqu3T4Ea0H-yw3o)

Well, they are a bit late getting there, IMHO.  Maybe they don't update the web site often.  And I still don't understand why they think this would recede anyway over time.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 04, 2020, 05:15:01 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 04, 2020, 04:56:22 PM
I think that projection is reasonable

In order to go from 67000 to 134475 in 92 days you would have to avg about 750 a day which would be less then half our current daily average

so its very possible IMHO
Yeah, but if the projection is just following the trend, it's not particularly useful as a prediction.

As I said last week, it's reactive rather than predictive. Which doesn't make it useless, but it's not as useful as people want it to be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 05:19:19 PM
I can see a model starting out very rough and getting better with more data.  I'm not sure why they projected numbers near 60,000 ever though, and this is an enormous change, not a slight modification.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 04, 2020, 05:34:13 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 05:19:19 PM
I can see a model starting out very rough and getting better with more data.  I'm not sure why they projected numbers near 60,000 ever though, and this is an enormous change, not a slight modification. 
I'm not anti-model. I know there are a lot of people very distrustful of models because sometimes they tell them things they don't want to hear.

But there are good models and not very good models, and this one doesn't seem great.

But the bigger problem was how us laymen were using the model. Everyone loved it when it said there'd be <100K deaths while the prediction the gov't was using was 100-240K. And then when it dropped to 60K, state governments and POTUS were saying "look at what a wonderful job we're doing"! Do you think they're going to be saying that today? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 04, 2020, 05:46:21 PM
I'm not anti-model either.  Heidi Klum is one of my favorites.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 06:11:32 PM
All models are wrong, some models are useful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 04, 2020, 06:19:21 PM
data is data

the data isn't wrong it's just not greatly useful

I assume data is being reported differently from state to state, even from hospital to hospital or even from different staff in the same hospital

folks developing models are using different data

definitions of "confirmed case" are different - definitions of deaths or "cause of deaths" are different

data is ALL over the place

perhaps this is a large reason we haven't developed cures for cancer and other breakthroughs through research - data isn't false, it's just not nearly as useful or as straighforward as it could be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 04, 2020, 06:21:07 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 04, 2020, 06:19:21 PM
data is data

the data isn't wrong it's just not greatly useful

I assume data is being reported differently from state to state, even from hospital to hospital or even from different staff in the same hospital

folks developing models are using different data

definitions of "confirmed case" are different - definitions of deaths or "cause of deaths" are different

data is ALL over the place

perhaps this is a large reason we haven't developed cures for cancer and other breakthroughs through research - data isn't false, it's just not nearly as useful or as straighforward as it could be.
Data is data. It takes a lot of work to turn it into information. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 04, 2020, 06:23:06 PM
takes much more work when the data is not consistent or even reliable 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 04, 2020, 06:24:24 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 04, 2020, 05:46:21 PM
I'm not anti-model either.  Heidi Klum is one of my favorites.


If someone had an original Model-T, I'd gladly take it.

And then sell it to some collector for all the cash.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 06:26:16 PM
Data ARE data, but some data are false, some are misleading, etc.

There is nothing magic about having data unless you are on Star Trek TNG.  I'm stating the obvious.

You might drop a cannon ball and a feather and generate data about the rate at which eat falls and conclude light objects fall slower than heavier ones.

You might look at the sun rising and setting and conclude it goes around the Earth.

You might make some measurement and get data and later realize your instrument was improperly calibrated.  It happens.  I have choked on my share of BAD data.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 04, 2020, 06:32:00 PM
it just seems to me that possibly a federal jurisdiction could set some guidelines for data reporting so that the data gathered from New York would be very similar to data from California and the rest of the nation

seems that would make the data more uniform and useful

but, youse guys are the knowledgeable 

if New York is over reporting deaths and California is under reporting deaths, it seems tough to get good data
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 04, 2020, 06:33:42 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 04, 2020, 06:23:06 PM
takes much more work when the data is not consistent or even reliable
Yes, MUCH more work.

Which is why there are over 15,000 open jobs on linkedin for data scientists: https://www.linkedin.com/jobs/search/?keywords=data%20scientist (https://www.linkedin.com/jobs/search/?keywords=data scientist)

Anyone can figure out what it means with data that's consistent and reliable. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 04, 2020, 06:40:23 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/Fi2mvxw.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 04, 2020, 06:42:38 PM
AMARILLO, Texas — A federal strike force is headed to Amarillo in response to a surge of coronavirus cases tied to meatpacking plants in the area.

Amarillo Mayor Ginger Nelson announced on Saturday that a team of federal officials would arrive in the Texas Panhandle as soon as Sunday to help "attack" outbreaks in the plants and take over testing and investigations of people contracting the new coronavirus.

“They will bring resources and most importantly they will bring strategies that they’ve been using in other beef packing plants to slow the spread, to get control of it,” Nelson said in a video posted to her Facebook page.


The latest figures reported by the state put the number of people who have been infected in Potter County at 684, giving it an infection rate of 5.66 per 1,000 residents. That’s roughly four times higher than the infection rates in Harris and Dallas counties.

The spread of the coronavirus in Amarillo though is dwarfed by the rate of infection in Moore County, its neighbor to the north that’s home to the massive JBS Beef meatpacking plant. The infection rate in Moore County stood at 16.65 per 1,000 residents, according to data reported Saturday by the state.

State health officials previously confirmed they were investigating a cluster of cases tied to the JBS plant that’s located one county over from Amarillo. As of April 24, the outbreak had grown to 159 coronavirus infections, including one death associated with the outbreak. Not all the cases were in Moore County though. The JBS plant, which is powered by a workforce made up largely of Hispanics and immigrants, has workers who hail from Oklahoma, the tiny town of Cactus, the city of Dumas and Amarillo, from where JBS shuttles workers to and from the plant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2020, 06:43:33 PM
I suspect NYC is under reporting COVID deaths.  Under.  Their death rate to all causes is way higher than normal for this time of year, apparently.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 04, 2020, 06:44:43 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 04, 2020, 06:40:23 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/Fi2mvxw.png)
No shit. I just had to order yeast on Amazon (through this site), among other things.

A good many of the office desks are also sold out. People working at home... I ended up ordering a 6' folding table instead. $50. Oh well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 05, 2020, 01:34:59 AM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 04, 2020, 01:05:31 PM
Maybe Americans will finally understand that we should be actively trying to reduce the deficit and build social safety nets during periods of economic prosperity, so that we can weather the inevitable economic downturn.

What am I saying?  Whew I made a funny there.  We aren't gonna change.
You're going to have to wash your mouth out with soap now.
And cut off your fingers so that you never type such an outlandish suggestion again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 05, 2020, 02:26:32 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 04, 2020, 06:23:06 PM
takes much more work when the data is not consistent or even reliable
And that's when responsible people say "WE DON'T KNOW YET" while suggesting everyone proceed with caution.  I swear to god there's a  mental block with people accepting when "I don't know" is the most accurate and proper answer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 05, 2020, 02:28:26 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 04, 2020, 03:45:56 PM
Because China.
Because we've morphed from a population that generally followed the facts to one where it's funny/cool to be a flat-earther and deny any and all experts.  People think it started in a Wuhan lab because they WANT to believe it started in a Wuhan lab and for no other reason.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 05, 2020, 07:36:47 AM
There is a certain politician in high office today who is polarizing, and some people adopt whatever he says, and some adopt the opposite, without any thought being given to what he says.  Yes, it's a male.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 05, 2020, 07:47:12 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 05, 2020, 07:36:47 AM
There is a certain politician in high office today who is polarizing, and some people adopt whatever he says, and some adopt the opposite, without any thought being given to what he says.  Yes, it's a male.
If you wait long enough he'll adopt the opposite position without any thought
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 05, 2020, 08:02:10 AM
I'll be curious what he'll be saying from the White House a year from now. Hopefully nothing about this shit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 05, 2020, 08:21:07 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 05, 2020, 02:28:26 AM
Because we've morphed from a population that generally followed the facts to one where it's funny/cool to be a flat-earther and deny any and all experts.  People think it started in a Wuhan lab because they WANT to believe it started in a Wuhan lab and for no other reason.
What the hell are you talking about? I trust experts who I deem trustworthy. I trust Dr. Birx. I no longer trust Dr. Fauci.


I've NEVER trusted China, but I respected them. Now they've lost that too. F the CCP.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 05, 2020, 09:22:03 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 05, 2020, 08:21:07 AM
What the hell are you talking about? I trust experts who I deem trustworthy. I trust Dr. Birx. I no longer trust Dr. Fauci.


I've NEVER trusted China, but I respected them. Now they've lost that too. F the CCP.
I love her (https://www.reddit.com/r/WatchPeopleDieInside/comments/g6z08y/dr_birxs_reaction_when_president_trump_asks_his/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 05, 2020, 09:23:15 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 05, 2020, 01:34:59 AM
You're going to have to wash your mouth out with soap now.
And cut off your fingers so that you never type such an outlandish suggestion again.
That’s part of the new safety guidelines being released today I think. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 05, 2020, 09:26:49 AM
Just back from Kroger, they are out of TP - STIL!!!! Short on meat and cleaning products (spray types), pretty OK with everything else.  Traffic was very light for this time of day.  I think a lot of folks realize they can "work from home" just fine.

I was musing about folks in NYC living in 60 story buildings.  We're restricted to two people per elevator and one can miss one ride, it's not really an issue here, but in a 60 story building?

We looked at one condo on the 28th floor, the balcony was scary for us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 05, 2020, 09:29:57 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 05, 2020, 02:28:26 AM
Because we've morphed from a population that generally followed the facts to one where it's funny/cool to be a flat-earther and deny any and all experts.  People think it started in a Wuhan lab because they WANT to believe it started in a Wuhan lab and for no other reason.
Well even if YOU ignore the data and facts about HOW it started, certainly we now KNOW that the first explosion of cases in the world happened in Wuhan.  We also now KNOW the CCP lied about human to human transmission further propelling the virus onto the rest of the world, while they began hoarding supplies. 

The evidence that it escaped a Wuhan lab where we KNOW they were working with corona virus and bats, is highly circumstantial, but overwhelmingly high in volume. 

So you can OfA, you can have your political cake and eat it too. You can say the person in the oval house completely failed in handling the virus for this country if that is your narrative.  But you CANT deny it started proliferation to the world from China, and the guy in the office had nothing to do with that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 05, 2020, 09:31:50 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 05, 2020, 08:21:07 AM
What the hell are you talking about? I trust experts who I deem trustworthy. I trust Dr. Birx. I no longer trust Dr. Fauci.


I've NEVER trusted China, but I respected them. Now they've lost that too. F the CCP.
China and Russia should never be trusted or respected. Is that political?  Cause I kinda think it’s a fact...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 05, 2020, 09:37:21 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on May 05, 2020, 09:29:57 AM


The evidence that it escaped a Wuhan lab where we KNOW they were working with corona virus and bats, is highly circumstantial, but overwhelmingly high in volume. 
Again, zero evidence it escaped from a lab. That includes circumstantial evidence.

Wuhan is a big city. Research happens in big cities all over the world. There was a lab there doing virus research. So what?

I’d be willing to bet every single school in the big 10 does virus research at their labs, and I’ll even bet they do COV research and have done it since long before this outbreak. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 05, 2020, 09:38:47 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 05, 2020, 09:26:49 AM
Just back from Kroger, they are out of TP - STIL!!!! Short on meat and cleaning products (spray types), pretty OK with everything else.  Traffic was very light for this time of day.  I think a lot of folks realize they can "work from home" just fine.

I was musing about folks in NYC living in 60 story buildings.  We're restricted to two people per elevator and one can miss one ride, it's not really an issue here, but in a 60 story building?

We looked at one condo on the 28th floor, the balcony was scary for us.
I've been wondering about that, too. I can't imagine what a pain it must be to maintain social distancing in those circumstances.

An old girlfriend of mine lived in Manhattan on the 5th floor of a 10-story walk-up-- no elevators at all.  Those staircases were narrow, not really even room for two people to pass one another side by side.  That's not a great situation, either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 05, 2020, 09:53:55 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 05, 2020, 09:26:49 AM
Just back from Kroger, they are out of TP - STIL!!!! Short on meat and cleaning products (spray types), pretty OK with everything else.  Traffic was very light for this time of day.  I think a lot of folks realize they can "work from home" just fine.

I was musing about folks in NYC living in 60 story buildings.  We're restricted to two people per elevator and one can miss one ride, it's not really an issue here, but in a 60 story building?

We looked at one condo on the 28th floor, the balcony was scary for us.
I found Target good to TP.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 05, 2020, 09:55:42 AM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 05, 2020, 09:37:21 AM
Again, zero evidence it escaped from a lab. That includes circumstantial evidence.

Wuhan is a big city. Research happens in big cities all over the world. There was a lab there doing virus research. So what?

I’d be willing to bet every single school in the big 10 does virus research at their labs, and I’ll even bet they do COV research and have done it since long before this outbreak.
Usually your takes have some clarity to them. your telling me that the fact that the Wuhan Lab nearest the start of the explosive outbreak, openly works ( have for years) with Corona Virus in RARE bats - is just a coincidence more than it is circumstantial evidence?

And your support for that is “ your willing to bet” Big Ten Schools work with Corona virus?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 05, 2020, 09:58:30 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 05, 2020, 09:53:55 AM
I found Target good to TP.
Convenience stores have seemed to have it as well.  Small packages and pricey, of course, but in a pinch...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 05, 2020, 10:02:06 AM
I have plenty of TP here for us.  I just am amazed that folks apparently are still buying it up.  We were in Costco Friday and they had it lined up in the aisles, tons of it, and most people were not buying it.  We didn't either.

I still don't understand the rush on TP.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 05, 2020, 10:14:43 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 05, 2020, 02:28:26 AM
Because we've morphed from a population that generally followed the facts to one where it's funny/cool to be a flat-earther and deny any and all experts.  People think it started in a Wuhan lab because they WANT to believe it started in a Wuhan lab and for no other reason.
People of all political persuasions--you included--tend to follow the "facts" when the facts support their political/ideological/personal beliefs and distrust them when they don't.
Recall our conversation a few weeks ago about military affairs where the facts did not support you, but you nevertheless continued to believe what you wanted to believe.
It's always much easier to see when "they" fail to follow the facts than it is when "we" ignore them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 05, 2020, 10:18:30 AM
Quote from: utee94 on May 05, 2020, 09:38:47 AM
I've been wondering about that, too. I can't imagine what a pain it must be to maintain social distancing in those circumstances.

An old girlfriend of mine lived in Manhattan on the 5th floor of a 10-story walk-up-- no elevators at all.  Those staircases were narrow, not really even room for two people to pass one another side by side.  That's not a great situation, either.
Was that 10-story building 150 years old or something?
NYC has had an ordinance on the books since I think 1879 requiring apartment buildings over five stories to have an elevator.  That's why most of the apartment buildings (tenements) of the late 19th century were only five stories high.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 05, 2020, 10:19:18 AM
Humans have a strong tendency to confirmation bias.  We were taught against that, and even so, it's a strong motivation.  I recall a number of examples we were given where a group latched on to some theory or explanation and simply wouldn't let it go, discounting contrary information and clinging to failing "facts" in support.

The usual path is "Form an opinion, then seek confirmation and ignore/discount counterfactual information".  With THIS group, that strikes me as being much less prevalent than with most groups, which is one reason this is such a good group.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 05, 2020, 10:21:02 AM
My daughter lived in a four story walk up on 87th, she was on two fortunately.  All the apartments in that area seemed to be four floors.  It was an efficiency, $1650 a month for the first year, and we to pay an "apartment finder" to find the thing.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 05, 2020, 10:23:19 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 05, 2020, 10:18:30 AM
Was that 10-story building 150 years old or something?
NYC has had an ordinance on the books since I think 1879 requiring apartment buildings over five stories to have an elevator.  That's why most of the apartment buildings (tenements) of the late 19th century were only five stories high.
Yeah it was really old.  No idea when it was built.  And perhaps it just didn't have a working elevator...?  I never saw one and nobody used one, during the week I stayed with her up there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 05, 2020, 10:26:39 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on May 05, 2020, 09:55:42 AM
Usually your takes have some clarity to them. your telling me that the fact that the Wuhan Lab nearest the start of the explosive outbreak, openly works ( have for years) with Corona Virus in RARE bats - is just a coincidence more than it is circumstantial evidence?

And your support for that is “ your willing to bet” Big Ten Schools work with Corona virus?
Over 12,300 scientific/scholarly articles written about Coronavirus in bats from all over the world.

Link
 (https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C39&q=bat+coronavirus&oq=bat+coronavi)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on May 05, 2020, 10:28:01 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 04, 2020, 03:13:58 PM


So a restaurant owner is apparently an epidemiologist, and that he and his staff are young and healthy enough that it's no big deal if they get it and "six weeks is plenty of time"... And clearly he's such an expert that he thinks on a sunny day, "no one is at risk."

The reason we have epidemiologists is because guys like this are clearly not in any position to evaluate the risk of infectious diseases during a pandemic.

It is clear that the epidemiologists have no idea what they are talking about. From all the models I have seen produced by them even the best of them has way overshot the what has happened. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 05, 2020, 10:34:05 AM
I think they know what they are talking about, but none of us including them know many critical aspects of this virus with any accuracy at all.

Infection rate and style.  (R naught)

Immunity development (really key)

How many already have been infected (also important)

How many are ambulatory and contagious (really important)

Real mortality/hospitalization rates.

They are guessing at those numbers based on some initial experiences in cruise ships and the like.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 05, 2020, 10:35:35 AM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 05, 2020, 09:31:50 AM
China and Russia should never be trusted or respected. Is that political?  Cause I kinda think it’s a fact...
I respected China for becoming a player in the world. No more. We need to reduce them back to the third-world shithole they were and deserve to be.


Russia can F off too.


Not political at all. F 'em both.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 05, 2020, 10:47:50 AM
Quote from: utee94 on May 05, 2020, 10:23:19 AM
Yeah it was really old.  No idea when it was built.  And perhaps it just didn't have a working elevator...?  I never saw one and nobody used one, during the week I stayed with her up there.
I only know that factoid about elevators because when we (AP U.S. History teachers) hit the urbanization of the late 19th century, NYC is sort of the paradigm for the whole thing.  So we cover the development of tenements, the types of tenements, changing laws, changing responses to those laws.
Contrary to what a lot of people assume, they weren't built to be slums.  But when one floor--meant to house four families--was instead housing 6 or 8 families, that's what they quickly became.
Here's a layout of the evolution of the NYC tenement.

[img width=500 height=271.989]https://www.skyscraper.org/housing-density/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/06/Dumbbell_Tenement.png[/img]
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 05, 2020, 10:50:55 AM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 05, 2020, 10:26:39 AM
Over 12,300 scientific/scholarly articles written about Coronavirus in bats from all over the world.

Link
 (https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C39&q=bat+coronavirus&oq=bat+coronavi)

Your missing my point.  Assume it had NOTHING to do with bats, or labs. The outbreak first exploded in the city of Wuhan.  The evidence that the CCP lied about its degree of deadlines and Human transmission- and the fact that they knowingly allowed thousand of Wuhan residents to fly out of their country and into other places like London, Italy and New York- is now factually established. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 05, 2020, 10:55:06 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 05, 2020, 10:47:50 AM
I only know that factoid about elevators because when we (AP U.S. History teachers) hit the urbanization of the late 19th century, NYC is sort of the paradigm for the whole thing.  So we cover the development of tenements, the types of tenements, changing laws, changing responses to those laws.
Contrary to what a lot of people assume, they weren't built to be slums.  But when one floor--meant to house four families--was instead housing 6 or 8 families, that's what they quickly became.
Here's a layout of the evolution of the NYC tenement.



The evolution of living/working space up there is definitely fascinating.

Not sure if you ever saw "The Gangs of New York" but the ending scene shows a view that illustrates the changes in Manhattan buildings/skyline over time, from across one of the rivers (don't know enough about NYC geography to know which river).

Found it here, the scene starts around the :50 second mark:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-8Lu7MRjQs (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-8Lu7MRjQs)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 05, 2020, 11:00:11 AM
Quote from: utee94 on May 05, 2020, 10:55:06 AM
The evolution of living/working space up there is definitely fascinating.

Not sure if you ever saw "The Gangs of New York" but the ending scene shows a view that illustrates the changes in Manhattan buildings/skyline over time, from across one of the rivers (don't know enough about NYC geography to know which river).

Found it here, the scene starts around the :50 second mark:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-8Lu7MRjQs (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-8Lu7MRjQs)
Cool scene.
I think that's the Brooklyn Bridge, so that would be looking from Brooklyn, across the "East River" (which is not a river at all but a channel between Long Island Sound and New York Harbor) into Manhattan.
If you were looking from the Jersey side, you'd be looking across the Hudson, which is a truly beautiful river once you get upstream a bit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 05, 2020, 11:21:10 AM
Quote from: Riffraft on May 05, 2020, 10:28:01 AM
It is clear that the epidemiologists have no idea what they are talking about. From all the models I have seen produced by them even the best of them has way overshot the what has happened.
You do realize that many of the models were related to what would happen if we DIDN'T social distance, right? 

We've engaged in extreme behavior modification and this is still more deaths than the worst flu season of the last decade--and that's assuming we're not undercounting deaths, which is a real thing as we've discussed over the last few days. CDC estimates of "excess deaths" suggest that overall society deaths are FAR higher than usual, and only a portion of those have been attributed to COVID-19. 

And some of the models said 100-240K overall deaths IF we flatten the curve, which is what we seem to have done--we're well on our way to over 100K. And the numbers will continue to rise as we reopen--the goal is to get the curve flattened and not overwhelm the healthcare industry, and we'll have some additional deaths as we reopen because the healthcare industry has "room" for more patients. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 05, 2020, 11:48:55 AM
From The Dispatch:
As of Monday night, there are now 1,180,288 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States (an increase of 22,247/1.9 percent since yesterday) and 68,922 deaths (an increase of 1,240/1.8 percent increase since yesterday), according to the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard (http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUEluxCAQfM1wRAaGwT5wyCXfsFg6NgmLBU1m_PvgjNSHVqm6a3EGYSv11EdpSHqDugav73wRiikyNs9mOZPQ1q8KkEyIGmsHcnQbgzMYSr4OuJRsIbt-wGK55MIy7mZ5l0YoJxiHeTHKW7WQS2Y13QfIDnTJ8fx_TKLeEY92Ex83_jnGlVqy-Q21N_q9dwq-DzSZg-6YIgmaT3ya5CQZEwtXlNEXe-WnkiLPt_uUNk5btw2N-6GuJFJ1NdlTW8O2tUFo1m2xWBNpBrzSrIOVeg54rpCNjeDfQfHdzL9vPA_QGZ4tAiLUN3jVJcT04GQI-jIqyjqVmkPefGiHQbf_AUXaetU), leading to a mortality rate among confirmed cases of 5.8 percent (the true mortality rate is likely lower, but it’s impossible to determine precisely due to incomplete testing regimens). Of 7,285,178 coronavirus tests conducted in the United States (231,812 conducted since yesterday), 16.2 percent have come back positive. Meanwhile, 187,180 have recovered from the virus (an increase of 7,028/3.9 percent since yesterday).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 05, 2020, 11:55:42 AM
Quote from: utee94 on May 05, 2020, 09:38:47 AM
I've been wondering about that, too. I can't imagine what a pain it must be to maintain social distancing in those circumstances.

An old girlfriend of mine lived in Manhattan on the 5th floor of a 10-story walk-up-- no elevators at all.  Those staircases were narrow, not really even room for two people to pass one another side by side.  That's not a great situation, either.
Could you imagine moving into or out of that building and being on the 10th floor? All I can imagine is trying to get a king sized mattress up that many flights of stairs. Now my back it really hurting. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 05, 2020, 11:57:57 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 05, 2020, 11:48:55 AM
From The Dispatch:
As of Monday night, there are now 1,180,288 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States (an increase of 22,247/1.9 percent since yesterday) and 68,922 deaths (an increase of 1,240/1.8 percent increase since yesterday), according to the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard (http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUEluxCAQfM1wRAaGwT5wyCXfsFg6NgmLBU1m_PvgjNSHVqm6a3EGYSv11EdpSHqDugav73wRiikyNs9mOZPQ1q8KkEyIGmsHcnQbgzMYSr4OuJRsIbt-wGK55MIy7mZ5l0YoJxiHeTHKW7WQS2Y13QfIDnTJ8fx_TKLeEY92Ex83_jnGlVqy-Q21N_q9dwq-DzSZg-6YIgmaT3ya5CQZEwtXlNEXe-WnkiLPt_uUNk5btw2N-6GuJFJ1NdlTW8O2tUFo1m2xWBNpBrzSrIOVeg54rpCNjeDfQfHdzL9vPA_QGZ4tAiLUN3jVJcT04GQI-jIqyjqVmkPefGiHQbf_AUXaetU), leading to a mortality rate among confirmed cases of 5.8 percent (the true mortality rate is likely lower, but it’s impossible to determine precisely due to incomplete testing regimens). Of 7,285,178 coronavirus tests conducted in the United States (231,812 conducted since yesterday), 16.2 percent have come back positive. Meanwhile, 187,180 have recovered from the virus (an increase of 7,028/3.9 percent since yesterday).
Very interested in the numbers today/tomorrow. The Sun/Mon numbers, per trend, have come in low, and the death numbers were lower than the previous two Sun/Mon periods. I'm of course expecting a spike today/tomorrow, again per weekly trends, but I wonder if they'll continue showing the downtrend.

Overall death numbers in NY have been coming down, which of course is a HUGE portion of the total, and deaths elsewhere have been rising but it appears not as fast as the decline in NY.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 05, 2020, 12:02:09 PM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 05, 2020, 11:55:42 AM
Could you imagine moving into or out of that building and being on the 10th floor? All I can imagine is trying to get a king sized mattress up that many flights of stairs. Now my back it really hurting.
imagine hauling blocks of ice up there before refrigeration
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 05, 2020, 12:28:21 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on May 05, 2020, 10:50:55 AM
Your missing my point.  Assume it had NOTHING to do with bats, or labs. The outbreak first exploded in the city of Wuhan.  The evidence that the CCP lied about its degree of deadlines and Human transmission- and the fact that they knowingly allowed thousand of Wuhan residents to fly out of their country and into other places like London, Italy and New York- is now factually established.
In that case, you are 100% spot on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 05, 2020, 12:29:43 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 05, 2020, 11:48:55 AM
From The Dispatch:
As of Monday night, there are now 1,180,288 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States (an increase of 22,247/1.9 percent since yesterday) and 68,922 deaths (an increase of 1,240/1.8 percent increase since yesterday), according to the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard (http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUEluxCAQfM1wRAaGwT5wyCXfsFg6NgmLBU1m_PvgjNSHVqm6a3EGYSv11EdpSHqDugav73wRiikyNs9mOZPQ1q8KkEyIGmsHcnQbgzMYSr4OuJRsIbt-wGK55MIy7mZ5l0YoJxiHeTHKW7WQS2Y13QfIDnTJ8fx_TKLeEY92Ex83_jnGlVqy-Q21N_q9dwq-DzSZg-6YIgmaT3ya5CQZEwtXlNEXe-WnkiLPt_uUNk5btw2N-6GuJFJ1NdlTW8O2tUFo1m2xWBNpBrzSrIOVeg54rpCNjeDfQfHdzL9vPA_QGZ4tAiLUN3jVJcT04GQI-jIqyjqVmkPefGiHQbf_AUXaetU), leading to a mortality rate among confirmed cases of 5.8 percent (the true mortality rate is likely lower, but it’s impossible to determine precisely due to incomplete testing regimens). Of 7,285,178 coronavirus tests conducted in the United States (231,812 conducted since yesterday), 16.2 percent have come back positive. Meanwhile, 187,180 have recovered from the virus (an increase of 7,028/3.9 percent since yesterday).
These are very encouraging numbers.  Social distancing is working, but damn if it isn't slow....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 05, 2020, 12:30:00 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 05, 2020, 11:57:57 AM
Very interested in the numbers today/tomorrow. The Sun/Mon numbers, per trend, have come in low, and the death numbers were lower than the previous two Sun/Mon periods. I'm of course expecting a spike today/tomorrow, again per weekly trends, but I wonder if they'll continue showing the downtrend.

Overall death numbers in NY have been coming down, which of course is a HUGE portion of the total, and deaths elsewhere have been rising but it appears not as fast as the decline in NY.
We're just a drop in the bucket, but Oklahoma had no reported COVID deaths for Saturday and Sunday.  But then we had 9 deaths reported for yesterday.
We've had a lunatic fringe threatening employees for wearing masks.  Worst I know of were in Stillwater, home of our state institution of agricultural learning.  The city manager responded by rescinding the rules.  Courageous fellow.
If the authorities are not going to enforce the rules, or even worse back down from the mob and rescind them, then the rules are going to be increasingly disregarded.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 05, 2020, 12:30:35 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on May 05, 2020, 10:28:01 AM
It is clear that the epidemiologists have no idea what they are talking about. From all the models I have seen produced by them even the best of them has way overshot the what has happened.
I'll settle for one source.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 05, 2020, 12:33:05 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 05, 2020, 12:02:09 PM
imagine hauling blocks of ice up there before refrigeration
You speak as if you have had experience hauling blocks of ice.  Am I right?
I wonder if they maybe had a hoist that could lift blocks of ice and other heavy items from outside the building, putting the load through a window on the desired floor.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 05, 2020, 12:34:00 PM
A guy on the radio was talking about NYC without functioning subways.  He said the model just collapses, it doesn't work any more.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 05, 2020, 01:27:52 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 05, 2020, 12:33:05 PM
You speak as if you have had experience hauling blocks of ice.  Am I right?
I wonder if they maybe had a hoist that could lift blocks of ice and other heavy items from outside the building, putting the load through a window on the desired floor.
In Amsterdam (and probably many other places, I just specifically noticed them whilst touring Amsterdam), a lot of the buildings have hoisting beams built in at the top, so that they can lift heavy items to upper floors.  Of course, those items have to fit in through the exterior windows or doors...


(https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-C6s7Amh1x0A/VyOyufIsl1I/AAAAAAAAKck/lr70n4HcMxE3rhdDKG3i3g8apJxzsLUbQCLcB/s1600/P1080343-001.JPG)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 05, 2020, 01:56:10 PM
Iowa has had its deadliest 24-hour period since the novel coronavirus was reported in the state March 8 with Gov. Kim Reynolds reporting Tuesday that 19 Iowans have died due to COVID-19.

That brings to 207 the number of Iowa residents who have died from the respiratory virus. Of that total, 95 victims were aged 81 or older even though the that age demographic makes up about 5 percent of the people who have tested positive for the disease. Another 83 victims were in the 61-80 age range, while 24 were between the ages of 41 and 60 and five were in the 18-40 age group.


_________________________________________________ ______

doesn't seem like the time to open things up

but, that's just me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 05, 2020, 02:11:45 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 05, 2020, 01:56:10 PM
Iowa has had its deadliest 24-hour period since the novel coronavirus was reported in the state March 8 with Gov. Kim Reynolds reporting Tuesday that 19 Iowans have died due to COVID-19.

That brings to 207 the number of Iowa residents who have died from the respiratory virus. Of that total, 95 victims were aged 81 or older even though the that age demographic makes up about 5 percent of the people who have tested positive for the disease. Another 83 victims were in the 61-80 age range, while 24 were between the ages of 41 and 60 and five were in the 18-40 age group.


_________________________________________________ ______

doesn't seem like the time to open things up

but, that's just me

Are the hospitals in danger of being overrun?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 05, 2020, 02:15:09 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 05, 2020, 01:27:52 PM
In Amsterdam (and probably many other places, I just specifically noticed them whilst touring Amsterdam), a lot of the buildings have hoisting beams built in at the top, so that they can lift heavy items to upper floors.  Of course, those items have to fit in through the exterior windows or doors...


[img width=317.983 height=500]https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-C6s7Amh1x0A/VyOyufIsl1I/AAAAAAAAKck/lr70n4HcMxE3rhdDKG3i3g8apJxzsLUbQCLcB/s1600/P1080343-001.JPG[/img]
Seems that I remember movies set in New York in the '60s or earlier would occasionally have some scene about a piano or whatnot being hoisted up into an apartment.  I don't remember any permanent beams sticking out like those in the Amsterdam pic, though.  I can imagine some temporary set-up on the rooftop.
Which begs the question of how the temporary set-up could be gotten up on the rooftop in the first place.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 05, 2020, 02:15:27 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 05, 2020, 01:56:10 PM
Iowa has had its deadliest 24-hour period since the novel coronavirus was reported in the state March 8 with Gov. Kim Reynolds reporting Tuesday that 19 Iowans have died due to COVID-19.

That brings to 207 the number of Iowa residents who have died from the respiratory virus. Of that total, 95 victims were aged 81 or older even though the that age demographic makes up about 5 percent of the people who have tested positive for the disease. Another 83 victims were in the 61-80 age range, while 24 were between the ages of 41 and 60 and five were in the 18-40 age group.


_________________________________________________ ______

doesn't seem like the time to open things up

but, that's just me
anyone dying of the virus yesterday got it way before the opening up started
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 05, 2020, 02:37:06 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 05, 2020, 01:27:52 PM
In Amsterdam (and probably many other places, I just specifically noticed them whilst touring Amsterdam), a lot of the buildings have hoisting beams built in at the top, so that they can lift heavy items to upper floors.  Of course, those items have to fit in through the exterior windows or doors...


(https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-C6s7Amh1x0A/VyOyufIsl1I/AAAAAAAAKck/lr70n4HcMxE3rhdDKG3i3g8apJxzsLUbQCLcB/s1600/P1080343-001.JPG)
Yep, I was just there and saw the same thing. Everywhere.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 05, 2020, 02:38:49 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 05, 2020, 02:15:27 PM
anyone dying of the virus yesterday got it way before the opening up started
Could have a month, or even two.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 05, 2020, 02:39:02 PM
Long ago and far away I read Alistair MacLean's Puppet on a Chain.  Seems like somebody ended up hanging from one of those hooks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 05, 2020, 02:53:48 PM
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-scientists-think-the-novel-coronavirus-developed-naturally-not-in-a-chinese-lab/ (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-scientists-think-the-novel-coronavirus-developed-naturally-not-in-a-chinese-lab/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 05, 2020, 03:03:39 PM
Here's a good example of someone who is opening against the rules--which concerns me--but seems to understand that this is still an extreme situation which requires intense caution to try to keep their customers, employees, etc healthy:

https://www.facebook.com/TheBarberHoodCA/posts/1120293624989942 (https://www.facebook.com/TheBarberHoodCA/posts/1120293624989942)

 (https://laist.com/latest/post/20200504/orange-county-reopen-barbershop)
https://laist.com/2020/05/04/barberhood-orange-county-reopens.php (https://laist.com/2020/05/04/barberhood-orange-county-reopens.php)


Quote
Wood said police have come a few times to observe how the shop is conducting business, which she categorizes as "utilizing every possible protocol we can think of to safely run a business in the new world."
She said precautions at the shop include: barbers wearing N95 masks which are replaced every few hours, rearranging chairs to comply with distancing rules, customers must wear masks, only the person receiving service is permitted to enter the shop, and "sanitizing between each client."
What about keeping a six foot distance — the precaution most effective in stopping transmission of the virus?
"No, we cannot get six feet away from each other," she said. "We're cutting hair. It's a very close proximity."

She said she also doesn't "condone the shops that are just opening as if nothing ever happened. I think we all have to really take this seriously, and adhere to every possible precaution and protocol we can to keep our community safe."
If people are taking things this seriously, perhaps reopening some things will be okay.


If people do things like that jackass restaurant owner in San Clemente who thinks there's no risk at all on a sunny day, not so much. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on May 05, 2020, 03:25:27 PM
In WV the governor is now allowing elective surgeries and barbershops/beauty salons are allowed to open back up.

My kids are officially finished with school this Friday but for all intents and purposes are already done.  They didn’t send any additional packets home for this week for them to complete.

My nephew, who goes to public school, has been doing snow day packets since this all began.  For some reason it has been determined that those won’t be graded and he was mailed a big packet to complete in the next ten days so that he (and I’m assuming all the kids) will have assignments to be graded.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on May 05, 2020, 03:37:49 PM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 05, 2020, 11:55:42 AM
Could you imagine moving into or out of that building and being on the 10th floor? All I can imagine is trying to get a king sized mattress up that many flights of stairs. Now my back it really hurting.
Pivot, Pivot, Pivot :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on May 05, 2020, 03:40:58 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 05, 2020, 11:21:10 AM
You do realize that many of the models were related to what would happen if we DIDN'T social distance, right?

We've engaged in extreme behavior modification and this is still more deaths than the worst flu season of the last decade--and that's assuming we're not undercounting deaths, which is a real thing as we've discussed over the last few days. CDC estimates of "excess deaths" suggest that overall society deaths are FAR higher than usual, and only a portion of those have been attributed to COVID-19.

And some of the models said 100-240K overall deaths IF we flatten the curve, which is what we seem to have done--we're well on our way to over 100K. And the numbers will continue to rise as we reopen--the goal is to get the curve flattened and not overwhelm the healthcare industry, and we'll have some additional deaths as we reopen because the healthcare industry has "room" for more patients.

First, based on what I have read in how they are categorizing Covid-19 deaths, I assume we are overcounting deaths. 

Second, many of the "outlandish" (intentional use of the hyperbole) model were created after the social distancing. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on May 05, 2020, 03:50:32 PM
I haven't verified the numbers here (to lazy to go to the two website and pull the info), but I find this interesting as to where things are happening. I think it further supports we should be reacting to hotspots and not shut down the whole country.

(https://i.imgur.com/S9VVrwR.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 05, 2020, 03:55:12 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/the-coronavirus-mutated-and-appears-to-be-more-contagious-now-new-study-finds.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/the-coronavirus-mutated-and-appears-to-be-more-contagious-now-new-study-finds.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 05, 2020, 04:11:29 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on May 05, 2020, 03:40:58 PM
First, based on what I have read in how they are categorizing Covid-19 deaths, I assume we are overcounting deaths.

Second, many of the "outlandish" (intentional use of the hyperbole) model were created after the social distancing.
One of the key ways to look at this is excess deaths in general. We have pretty good estimates of how many people across the country "should" be dying week by week. Analyzing the trends there are meaningful.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm)

Simple ground rules:


There are ways to go either way. If there are "too many" excess deaths, you could explain that some people who might ordinarily seek treatment for other diseases/maladies, who were afraid to leave their house and go to the ER, allowed something they could have been saved from to kill them. If there are "too few" excess deaths, you may explain that staying home caused fewer people to die--for example I believe that auto fatalities here in CA have dropped over the stay-at-home orders due to fewer people being on the road (and probably fewer drunk drivers because you can't go get ripped at a bar and drive home). 

Either way, right now we're in the position that there are "too many" excess deaths. So it's more likely that we're undercounting. Not guaranteed, but unless we have a way to explain those extra excess deaths, we have to at least entertain the possibility that people are dying of COVID-19 and not being counted as such.


There's a lot of misinformation out there, but it seems clear that more people in excess of normal trends are dying than the official COVID-19 death toll. If you have a better explanation that undercounting, I'd love to hear it.


---------

Regarding the "outlandish" models, the only one that I know of was the Imperial College of London model which claimed 2.2M deaths in the US if we did NOTHING to mitigate, and only bringing it down to 200K if we had very strict social distancing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 05, 2020, 04:18:47 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 05, 2020, 02:11:45 PM
Are the hospitals in danger of being overrun?
Currently, 407 Iowans are hospitalized for COVID-19 with 152 in intensive care units and 94 requiring the use of ventilators to assist their breathing. The state has reported outbreaks in 28 long-term care facilities so far.

there's been no talk of shortage of medical facilities, thankfully.

Yes, I understand the deaths come quite some time after being infected, but wouldn't it be better to see the death numbers fall off before allowing folks to be out and about?  Maybe I'm crazy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 05, 2020, 04:23:02 PM
The people being "out and about" is vastly over generalized, at least around here.  Not much has changed on the ground.

I'm not being forced to dine out, which is good, because most places are still closed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 05, 2020, 04:29:08 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on May 05, 2020, 03:50:32 PM
I haven't verified the numbers here (to lazy to go to the two website and pull the info), but I find this interesting as to where things are happening. I think it further supports we should be reacting to hotspots and not shut down the whole country.

(https://i.imgur.com/S9VVrwR.jpg)
First, note that by definition, this is cherry-picking a little. 2017-18 was the worst flu season in the last decade. 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

 (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html)The 2017-18 season had 61,000 deaths. Average over the past 9 seasons is roughly 37,500 deaths. Excluding 2017-18, the average for the other 8 seasons was about 34,500 deaths. 

Second, those flu seasons are 5-6 months long. We've had 70,000 deaths in basically 6 weeks. 

Third, those flu seasons essentially had ZERO mitigating factors. No social distancing. No special precautions. No businesses being closed. Nothing.

Fourth, flu seasons are at least partially mitigated by herd immunity, since we have a vaccine. Vaccinated populations help to reduce the spread. COVID-19 has a virtual green field of patients to infect with zero immunity. The CA antibody studies suggested maybe 4% of the population had experienced COVID-19, so you've got 96% of the population there left. NY was MUCH higher (15% statewide, 25% in NYC), but even then the virus is still spreading quickly in NY so at those rates there's no herd immunity. In most of those states with low case/death counts today, you have to assume MUCH fewer infection rates so 96% non-immunity very well might be a floor.

Fifth, unlike the flu, there's very little evidence that this will burn out just because we reach the summer. Tropical (hot/humid) countries are experiencing spread of COVID-19, so although the flu season has an end, at best we can hope for a slowdown when the summer months come, not an eradication.

This isn't the flu. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 05, 2020, 04:33:47 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 05, 2020, 04:23:02 PM
The people being "out and about" is vastly over generalized, at least around here.  Not much has changed on the ground.

I'm not being forced to dine out, which is good, because most places are still closed.
I agree with this, but if a health club is "open"  there's more chance that a few idiots cause a hotspot.

I'm doubting we have a football season, because all it will take is one team to have an outbreak and it will be shutdown - maybe I'm wrong
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 05, 2020, 04:40:53 PM
Yes, it increases the risk of contagion, no doubt.  We have to try and balance that risk with the economic consequences.  I would not have opened tattoo parlors (duh) and beauty salons.  I think dining out OUTSIDE should be a modest risk.  We already have take out, just let people sit outside in separated tables.

At some point, people will start to resist what some see as draconian restrictions and stop compliance when you might have retained compliance with more rational responses.  Young folks will find a way to create their own night clubs and bars, and probably are doing so now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 05, 2020, 04:41:41 PM
yes, they are
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 05, 2020, 04:48:09 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 05, 2020, 04:41:41 PM
yes, they are
Yup.  They are, they were, they never stopped.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 05, 2020, 05:01:05 PM
They're bulletproof and immortal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 05, 2020, 05:03:02 PM
and increase the spread
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 05, 2020, 05:06:30 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on May 05, 2020, 03:25:27 PM
In WV the governor is now allowing elective surgeries and barbershops/beauty salons are allowed to open back up.

My kids are officially finished with school this Friday but for all intents and purposes are already done.  They didn’t send any additional packets home for this week for them to complete.

My nephew, who goes to public school, has been doing snow day packets since this all began.  For some reason it has been determined that those won’t be graded and he was mailed a big packet to complete in the next ten days so that he (and I’m assuming all the kids) will have assignments to be graded.
I work in education and I know West Virginia schools are underfunded and behind the times, but that is awful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 05, 2020, 05:39:31 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 05, 2020, 04:23:02 PM
The people being "out and about" is vastly over generalized, at least around here.  Not much has changed on the ground.

I'm not being forced to dine out, which is good, because most places are still closed.
The Phoenix area has a lot more people out and about, anecdotally.  Most have masks on.  But yes, people seem to think it's mostly behind us and/or they're tired of being home.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 05, 2020, 05:43:02 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on May 05, 2020, 10:28:01 AM
It is clear that the epidemiologists have no idea what they are talking about. From all the models I have seen produced by them even the best of them has way overshot the what has happened.
Lack of testing!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 05, 2020, 05:59:45 PM
NORTH SIOUX CITY, S.D. — The Mayor of North Sioux City, Randy Fredericksen, tells Siouxland News that he is going to resign Tuesday.

Fredericksen said he is not happy with the way the vote on reopening North Sioux City went Monday night.

During that city council meeting, the council voted 5-3 to reopen businesses in North Sioux City.

Mayor Fredericksen says he is "dead against it" and wanted to wait until next Thursday to see if the number of cases of COVID-19 in South Dakota and Union County start to decline.

"I feel we are letting the people down, my phone rang off the hook to have this closed, at the time that we closed it, I thought we did the right thing and held the numbers down," he told us. "Right now the whole state of South Dakota and Iowa is a hotspot."

Businesses in North Sioux City, which include casinos and restaurants, can start to reopen at 50% capacity starting today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 06, 2020, 10:03:31 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 05, 2020, 11:00:11 AM
Cool scene.
I think that's the Brooklyn Bridge, so that would be looking from Brooklyn, across the "East River" (which is not a river at all but a channel between Long Island Sound and New York Harbor) into Manhattan.
If you were looking from the Jersey side, you'd be looking across the Hudson, which is a truly beautiful river once you get upstream a bit.
The producers/editors should have caught that film was set during the Civil War yet John and Washington Roebling didn't finish the bridge until the 1880s sometime.Washington served in the "Late Unpleasntness" and was at Gettysburg
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 06, 2020, 10:07:22 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 06, 2020, 10:03:31 AM
The producers/editors should have caught that film was set during the Civil War yet John and Washington Roebling didn't finish the bridge until the 1880s sometime.Washington served in the "Late Unpleasntness" and was at Gettysburg
Uhhhh... well... did you watch the scene?  It's showing the development over time.  At the beginning of the scene, there is no bridge.  By the end, all of Manhattan is built up, including the World Trade Center towers which were actually destroyed before the movie was released in 2002.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 06, 2020, 10:10:52 AM
oh thought I saw the bridge whilst they were still in garb
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 06, 2020, 10:12:08 AM
I"m seeing youtube videos on FB featuring this Judy Mikovitch lady.  Save yourself the trouble, she is .... um .... not mainstream.

But she has a PhD ....  as if ...

The amount if "misinformation" coming out today is astounding even for these days.  It's all a conspiracy, and Bill Gates is the guiding force apparently.

I am reading some seriously bizarre alien level nonsense being fomented by a fair number of people.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 06, 2020, 10:26:26 AM
https://thehill.com/homenews/496293-new-discoveries-shift-coronavirus-timeline-by-months (https://thehill.com/homenews/496293-new-discoveries-shift-coronavirus-timeline-by-months)

This thing appears to have been "out" before any of us in the West knew anything about it.

If so, with this level of contagion, it was inevitable it would spread rapidly before "we" knew anything useful about it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 06, 2020, 10:33:39 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 06, 2020, 10:12:08 AM

The amount if "misinformation" coming out today is astounding even for these days.  It's all a conspiracy, and Bill Gates is the guiding force apparently.


I've had it out with Cindy and a good friend about this.Fairly certain BG is too busy counting coin to be slipping chips under my skin.And while he may/may not be an A-Hole I think he may have enough of a conscience.Getting older he may be sucking up to the Almighty - ya know just in case
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 06, 2020, 10:36:24 AM
Bill Gates, the Bilderburgs, the Tripartite Commission, the Woods folks, Rothschilds, just about anyone who is fairly well known.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on May 06, 2020, 11:13:59 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 05, 2020, 05:43:02 PM
Lack of testing!
It is the problem with most models. They are based on assumptions (hopefully educated assumptions, but assumptions nevertheless). 

Your model is only as good as the assumptions and it is obvious from the terrible performance of most of the models that underlying assumptions were wrong. 

There is a place for modeling, but to shutdown an entire economy based on them since way beyond reasonable. 

Again I am not saying that there isn't a pandemic, I am saying we should have treated just like we treated those in the past. Self-isolate if you are in an at risk group. Shutdown hotspots to help stop the spread. And overall ride it out until herd immunity does its job.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 06, 2020, 11:38:39 AM
heres some good news

https://www.foxnews.com/science/man-made-antibody-neutralizes-coronavirus-first-time (https://www.foxnews.com/science/man-made-antibody-neutralizes-coronavirus-first-time)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 06, 2020, 12:36:49 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 05, 2020, 10:35:35 AM
I respected China for becoming a player in the world. No more. We need to reduce them back to the third-world shithole they were and deserve to be.


Russia can F off too.


Not
https://www.cnn.com

Well if you raise a dissenting opinion in Russia- they throw you out a window.  I guess that’s better than China where you just disappear. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 06, 2020, 01:21:27 PM
Good take on multiple models: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/ (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/)

A key aspect is basically all of the models assume continued social distancing practices, and all are predicting a much lower average death rate than what we're seeing now between now and May 30, the end of their predictions. The midpoint projections range between 93K by May 30 and 111K by May 30.

That means that given ~25 days between now and then, and current deaths at ~72K, a range of ~840 average daily deaths on the low midpoint and ~1560 average daily deaths for the high midpoint. 

Right now the worldometers has implemented a 7-day moving average curve on their web site which peaked on Apr 20 at 2208 deaths/day and has slowly declined, with May 4 showing 1858 deaths/day. This will be of course a lagging measure of actual death rate with a 7-day lag, but due to weekly and daily variation you really need some smoothing.

Given that states are starting to open up (whether officially in some cases or by people simply flouting restrictions or increasing movement in places like CA), I suspect that we're not going to see a sharp decline during the month of May, and actual deaths by May 30 will be >111K. That's my prediction.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 06, 2020, 01:22:48 PM
Just back from a LONG walk (the weather is perfect).  We walked into town and then through a residential area and the park.  Most restaurants remain closed, about half do take out.  The big construction sites are going flat out.  There are more houses for sale than usual in the residential area, they used to be for sale and then sold in a week.  It's a prime area.  Quite a few houses are being completely overhauled there also, a few are being demolished to build something new.  The houses date from 1920.  The park was about typically busy, a lot of people with masks, it's easy to spread apart from everyone.

Traffic on the side streets remains  very low.  We walked across Peachtree St., the main drag, and for half a minute there were no cars visible in either direction.  At least the construction workers are getting paid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 06, 2020, 01:46:26 PM
Another interesting chart... 

(https://i.imgur.com/slJxRp7.png)

As with most things, there are problems with this kind of analysis. For public policy purposes, "USA" is probably too big of a jurisdiction, but even "USA minus New York" is still too big.

But it highlights that the decline in the giant outlier area (NY) is now making it look like the US is in general getting a handle on the deaths... But the rest of the country is seeing no decline at all. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 06, 2020, 02:03:18 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 06, 2020, 01:46:26 PM
Another interesting chart...

(https://i.imgur.com/slJxRp7.png)

As with most things, there are problems with this kind of analysis. For public policy purposes, "USA" is probably too big of a jurisdiction, but even "USA minus New York" is still too big.

But it highlights that the decline in the giant outlier area (NY) is now making it look like the US is in general getting a handle on the deaths... But the rest of the country is seeing no decline at all.

But we're not seeing exponential increase, either, which was the risk we were attempting to mitigate.  It has, for the most part, worked.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 06, 2020, 05:00:08 PM
One third of total deaths are registered in NY, and they may be under counting there by a factor of 2-3.

NJ and CT are second and third.  That is basically half of the death toll in the country thus far.  I see 1,743 today at the moment with 232, 269, 85 from those states along.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 06, 2020, 05:22:38 PM
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/06/850454989/eerie-emptiness-of-ers-worries-doctors-where-are-the-heart-attacks-and-strokes (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/06/850454989/eerie-emptiness-of-ers-worries-doctors-where-are-the-heart-attacks-and-strokes)

As the pandemic took hold, the number of patients showing up at hospitals with serious cardiovascular emergencies such as strokes and heart attacks has shrunk dramatically.

Across the country, doctors call the drop-off staggering, unlike anything they've seen. And they worry a new wave of patients is headed their way — people who have delayed care and will be sicker and more injured when they finally arrive in emergency rooms.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on May 07, 2020, 02:12:45 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 06, 2020, 01:21:27 PM
Good take on multiple models: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/ (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/)

A key aspect is basically all of the models assume continued social distancing practices, and all are predicting a much lower average death rate than what we're seeing now between now and May 30, the end of their predictions. The midpoint projections range between 93K by May 30 and 111K by May 30.

That means that given ~25 days between now and then, and current deaths at ~72K, a range of ~840 average daily deaths on the low midpoint and ~1560 average daily deaths for the high midpoint.

Right now the worldometers has implemented a 7-day moving average curve on their web site which peaked on Apr 20 at 2208 deaths/day and has slowly declined, with May 4 showing 1858 deaths/day. This will be of course a lagging measure of actual death rate with a 7-day lag, but due to weekly and daily variation you really need some smoothing.

Given that states are starting to open up (whether officially in some cases or by people simply flouting restrictions or increasing movement in places like CA), I suspect that we're not going to see a sharp decline during the month of May, and actual deaths by May 30 will be >111K. That's my prediction.
How did we blow by 61,000 by Aug 1, by circa May 1?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on May 07, 2020, 02:26:00 AM
I want to make a positive comment. I live in a town of 5,000 in a red county, Iowa. The Chinese restaurant across the street from my office was closed to dine-in March 17 by governor's proclamation. For a few days they did carry out. Then they closed circa March 20 to all business on their own. They had an extensive carry out business before the pandemic.

They reopened today. We are in a county where dine-in is allowed as of Friday May 1, but they reopened May 6 to carry out only. At Noon I glanced across the street. There was a line of people waiting for carry-outs to the end of the block, mostly 6 feet apart, and it was that way throughout the noon hour. Our community supported our neighbors. 

These folks operating the restaurant were ethnic Chinese growing up in Vietnam, and then immigrated to California, and about 20-years ago dispersed here to Iowa.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 07, 2020, 08:19:49 AM
That's a great story. Thanks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 07, 2020, 09:32:59 AM
Any of you watching John Krasinski's "Some Good News" on youtube?  It's just a 15 minute blurb, weekly, where he talks about the GOOD things that are going on around the world.  I like to watch it with the wife and kids, it has become "family movie time" since we've already watched pretty much every movie ever made.  Twice.

Oh and bonus, he's married to Emily Blunt and she makes appearances from time to time.  So that's nice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on May 07, 2020, 10:03:54 AM
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MvgDQwJTiUc&feature=share

I stumbled across this. I’m not endorsing it as the gospel or anything but just thought it was interesting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 07, 2020, 10:13:31 AM
It isn't interesting, it's replete with errors and partial truths and outright lies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 07, 2020, 10:17:25 AM
Quote from: Kris60 on May 07, 2020, 10:03:54 AM
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MvgDQwJTiUc&feature=share

I stumbled across this. I’m not endorsing it as the gospel or anything but just thought it was interesting.
The online reading seems to point to suggestions this women is a bit of a quack?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 07, 2020, 10:51:30 AM
does she walk like a duck?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on May 07, 2020, 10:55:42 AM
I have no idea. Is she?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on May 07, 2020, 11:01:36 AM
Her Wikipedia page certainly doesn’t paint her in a very positive light.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 07, 2020, 11:03:33 AM
I watched about 5 minutes of it.  The "reviews" of her comments you can find on line are scathing.

I think she is a complete whack job.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 07, 2020, 11:10:38 AM
"Towards the middle of the video, Willis asks Mikovits if she’s antivaccine, which, of course, she denies. After characterizing vaccines as an “immune therapy,” she then goes on to buying into the conspiracy that SARS-CoV-2 (the coronavirus that causes COVID-19) was “manipulated and studied” in a laboratory and then escaped. She then makes the utterly nonsensical claim that if SARS-CoV-2 had evolved naturally it would have taken 800 years. (Seriously, she’s a virologist?) Her difference is that she claims that the virus must have been released somehow between Fort Detrick and the Wuhan laboratory. She even claimed that in 1999 she worked at Fort Detrick in order to “teach Ebola how to infect human cells,” further claiming that Ebola couldn’t infect human cells until it had been “taught” how to do it. Apparently Ebola came from a lab too.

Indeed, the amount of nonsense, misinformation, disinformation, and conspiracy mongering in Mikovits’ response to questions is truly epic. She likens COVID-19 infection to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), which is even more nonsensical. She agrees with the conspiracy theory that doctors are being pushed to misclassify deaths due to other causes as due to COVID-19. Willis even included a clip of Dr. Dan Erickson making that claim. You might recall that he and Dr. Artin Massihi made a misinformation-laden video claiming that COVID-19 prevalence was so much higher than estimated and using that estimate to claim that COVID-19 is actually five times less lethal than seasonal flu. I emphasize that, in reality, the case and death count from COVID-19 is grossly underestimated. Why the pressure? Because government reimbursement is higher for a diagnosis of COVID-19, apparently. Basically, all the common conspiracy theories about COVID-19 make an appearance, including the claim that it was the flu vaccine that got it started, but with a spin. Mikovits claims that Italy was hit so hard because the virus for the flu vaccine it used was grown in dog cells and dog cells have a lot of coronavirus. She also cites the bogus claim that the flu vaccine increases your chance of getting COVID-19 by 36%. It doesn’t.
Oh, and hydroxychloroquine makes an appearance, too, because of course it does. Hydroxychloroquine probably doesn’t work, but Mikovits is all-in with conspiracy theories about it.
Mark and Chris Hoofnagle coined a term “crank magnetism,” in which a person who believes in one form of pseudoscience or one conspiracy theory will tend to believe in multiple pseudoscientific beliefs and conspiracy theories. When, late in the video, Mikovits asks why we’re closing beaches because there are “healing microbes in the sand,” I had to stop. There’s just so much idiocy I can tolerate.
Sadly, as Judy Mikovits demonstrates, the COVID-19 pandemic is drawing cranks and conspiracy theorists like it moths to a light. Chief among them are antivax grifters like Judy Mikovits. She’s so wrong she’s not even wrong, and she’s gone full conspiracy theorist, taking advantage of the COVID-19 pandemic to be reborn as a COVID-19 crank, grifting with her book and a “doctor education” company. Sadly, she’s not alone."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 07, 2020, 11:37:03 AM
This is another classic case for confirmation bias.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CovIdiots/comments/gezery/plandemic_documentary_debunked/ (https://www.reddit.com/r/CovIdiots/comments/gezery/plandemic_documentary_debunked/)

The “documentary” begins…
“Dr. Judy Mikovits has been called one of the most accomplished scientists of her generation.
… [claims that Dr. Mikovits revolutionized AIDS testing and treatment]
At the height of her career, Dr. Mikovits published a blockbuster article in the journal, Science. The controversial article sent shockwaves through the scientific community as it revealed that the common use of animal and human fetal tissues were unleashing devastating plagues of chronic diseases. For exposing their deadly secrets, the minions of Big Pharma waged war on Dr. Mikovits Destroying her good name, career and personal life.”
At minute 1:55 in the film “one of the most accomplished scientists of her time” claims that she was arrested, but charged with NOTHING. At minute 1:58 she claims to have been held in jail with no charges, which if true would absolutely violate the 6th Amendment to the Constitution of the United States. 2:05 she claims there was “no warrant” for her arrest and at 2:13 she claims that her house was searched without a warrant which if true, would violate the 4th Amendment to the Constitution of the United States and at 2:26 she claims that the stolen intellectual property was PLANTED in her house in California. At 2:57 she claims that the FBI are involved (they were not) and that her case in under seal so that no attorney can represent her or defend her, or they would be found in contempt of court, which if true would of course violate too many Constitutional norms to enumerate but yes, basically ALL of them are being denied her… according to her.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on May 07, 2020, 11:56:06 AM
Eh, Idk. I saw the video on another site and thought it was an interesting but when you vet her a little bit her credibility takes a hit. I had never heard of her but I had never heard of Fauci before all this either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 07, 2020, 11:58:19 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 06, 2020, 10:36:24 AM
Bill Gates, the Bilderburgs, the Tripartite Commission, the Woods folks, Rothschilds, just about anyone who is fairly well known.
Good thing you didn't out Yeti's and Aliens - thought I was in trouble for a second
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 07, 2020, 12:02:18 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on May 06, 2020, 12:36:49 PM
https://www.cnn.com

Well if you raise a dissenting opinion in Russia- they throw you out a window.  I guess that’s better than China where you just disappear.



C'mon don't exaggerate sometimes they shoot you in broad daylight right on a sidewalk
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 07, 2020, 01:11:07 PM
Y'all familiar with the word "defenestrate?"

It's long been one of my favorite words, but not much chance to use it in everyday conversation.

Other than when discussing Russian doctors, apparently...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 07, 2020, 02:37:57 PM
Yeah, great word, nothing to do with fences really.

It is from the French, of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 07, 2020, 02:44:24 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 07, 2020, 02:37:57 PM
Yeah, great word, nothing to do with fences really.

It is from the French, of course.
whats that line from "My Fair Lady": 

the French dont care what they do actually as long as they pronounce it properly
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 07, 2020, 02:51:13 PM
https://www.npr.org/2020/05/07/851712311/u-s-field-hospitals-stand-down-most-without-treating-any-covid-19-patients (https://www.npr.org/2020/05/07/851712311/u-s-field-hospitals-stand-down-most-without-treating-any-covid-19-patients)

$660 million spent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 07, 2020, 02:51:48 PM
what pisses me off about this Plandemic thing is YouTube keeps taking it down. Google, YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, etc., etc., have protection from Section 230. They are literally f$$$king immune from liability. STOP censoring shit just because you don't like what people are saying. Makes no sense to me.

As long as no laws are being broken (see Backpage and it's sex-trafficking ring) - these Big Tech firms should stop censoring shit just because they don't like what someone says. Drives me crazy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 07, 2020, 02:55:35 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on May 07, 2020, 11:01:36 AM
Her Wikipedia page certainly doesn’t paint her in a very positive light.
Wikipedia is probably one of the least reliable sources for information there is. Anyone can write anything on a Wikipedia at anytime.

I'm not saying one way or the other about this lady or Plandemic. I have yet to dive into it. Just throwing that out there about Wikipedia.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 07, 2020, 02:56:53 PM
Wiki is far more accurate than I would have thought possible if it covers an area that isn't contentious.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on May 07, 2020, 03:08:00 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 07, 2020, 02:55:35 PM
Wikipedia is probably one of the least reliable sources for information there is. Anyone can write anything on a Wikipedia at anytime.

I'm not saying one way or the other about this lady or Plandemic. I have yet to dive into it. Just throwing that out there about Wikipedia.
Lol. I know.  That was more tongue in cheek than anything because you can tell from her Wiki page that some people who aren’t very fond of her contributed a great deal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 07, 2020, 03:10:41 PM
She is getting excoriated from a lot of different quarters, which of course one might expect if she is completely right.

Her "discussion" of patent issues was however very dramatically wrong.  That isn't how the patent system and assignments works, at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 07, 2020, 03:13:50 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 07, 2020, 02:55:35 PM
Wikipedia is probably one of the least reliable sources for information there is. Anyone can write anything on a Wikipedia at anytime.

I'm not saying one way or the other about this lady or Plandemic. I have yet to dive into it. Just throwing that out there about Wikipedia.
Yes, but any actively-maintained article will quickly be corrected by someone who is watching the page. 

You can also look at revision histories, so you can see exactly who changed something, when, if it was changed back, if there's an "edit war" between people on the page, etc...

It's not infallible, but for *most* topics, it's actually quite good... Which brings me to...

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 07, 2020, 02:56:53 PM
Wiki is far more accurate than I would have thought possible if it covers an area that isn't contentious.
Exactly. If you're looking at relatively dry and non-controversial topics, Wiki is pretty good. 

If it's anything related to politics, or to something controversial (like climate change), all bets are off.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 07, 2020, 03:20:59 PM
When it first started, I could imagine how it could work.  After a bit I looked up a couple of obscure topics on which I have some expertise thinking maybe I could add or change something.  The summaries were better than I could have provided.  I realized nobody out there had any interest in screwing them up.

One topic as I recall was dhchlorocarbene, to give you an idea of its obscurity (though you probably come across carbenes in sophomore org chem).

Briefly.  Divalent carbon and all that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 07, 2020, 04:53:15 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 07, 2020, 02:37:57 PM
Yeah, great word, nothing to do with fences really.

It is from the French, of course.
The French stole it from the Romans.  The ancient ones.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 07, 2020, 04:55:55 PM
Yeah, no wonder English is so weird.  There is a ton of French in it, and of course German (not as much IMHO), and the French has Latin roots.

It's almost as if someone from France invaded England like a thousand years ago and took over or something.

Then we have days of the week ....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 07, 2020, 05:15:56 PM
There's a YouTuber called LangFocus who--surprise!--looks at different languages.  He's Canadian, so it's not surprising that he's looked at various aspects of English.  One of the videos deals with whether English is truly a Germanic language or not.
There's a lot of evidence to cite if your answer is that it is not, but maybe not enough evidence.
A lot of the "Germanic" words are not from the Angles, Saxons, and Jutes who invaded Britain in the (IIRC) 5th century, but rather from later waves of Norse and Danes who invaded and semi-settled large parts of eastern and southeastern England.
And then the Normans who brought their language into England starting in 1066 weren't exactly speaking French either.  But, of course, there has been later borrowings of more modern French words.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 07, 2020, 05:21:07 PM
Yeah, I am not sure what language many of the Normans spoke in 1066, I'd guess William spoke a version of Old French extant at the court, and maybe something else.

Americans are good at borrowing stuff, I've noted before how many kinds of food we have, and wine from all over.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 07, 2020, 05:21:58 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 07, 2020, 02:51:48 PM
what pisses me off about this Plandemic thing is YouTube keeps taking it down. Google, YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, etc., etc., have protection from Section 230. They are literally f$$$king immune from liability. STOP censoring shit just because you don't like what people are saying. Makes no sense to me.

As long as no laws are being broken (see Backpage and it's sex-trafficking ring) - these Big Tech firms should stop censoring shit just because they don't like what someone says. Drives me crazy.
Did you completely miss the heads of these sites being grilled by congress a few years back?  They're going to avoid that ever happening again by any means necessary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 07, 2020, 05:47:07 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 07, 2020, 05:21:07 PM
Yeah, I am not sure what language many of the Normans spoke in 1066, I'd guess William spoke a version of Old French extant at the court, and maybe something else.

Americans are good at borrowing stuff, I've noted before how many kinds of food we have, and wine from all over.
It's all part of what makes our country great.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 07, 2020, 06:07:50 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 07, 2020, 05:21:58 PM
Did you completely miss the heads of these sites being grilled by congress a few years back?  They're going to avoid that ever happening again by any means necessary.
And what happened to them? Nothing. It was a complete dog and pony show. And you know why nothing happened to them: they are shielded by federal law. And those laws aren't changing. Why aren't they changing? Because the big tech firms donate a shit ton of cash to the politicians who write the laws. For instance- Facebook is one of Nancy Pelosi's three biggest donors.

These big tech companies have monopolies that violate US anti-trust laws and they haven't come close to smelling a whiff of being broken up. These companies continually merge and buy-up other companies and these m&a's violate anti-trust laws. Yet they are almost always approved by the FTC and the federal government does absolutely nothing to stop them up.

This is just showing you big tech is in bed with the government. If they weren't, they wouldn't be doing censorship for the government. Facebook, Google (which owns YouTube) have contracts with the federal government. This is nothing but them looking out for their business partners. And it's filthy rotten to the core.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 07, 2020, 06:20:08 PM
I'm currently making some borrowed boeuf bourguignon and will be drinking some borrowed Bordeaux wine tonight.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 07, 2020, 06:33:56 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 07, 2020, 03:13:50 PM
Yes, but any actively-maintained article will quickly be corrected by someone who is watching the page.

You can also look at revision histories, so you can see exactly who changed something, when, if it was changed back, if there's an "edit war" between people on the page, etc...

It's not infallible, but for *most* topics, it's actually quite good... Which brings me to...
Exactly. If you're looking at relatively dry and non-controversial topics, Wiki is pretty good.
Ya I know it's open to contributing information which broadens the data/input.Wasn't sure how they were edited though
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 07, 2020, 06:35:33 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 07, 2020, 05:21:58 PM
Did you completely miss the heads of these sites being grilled by congress a few years back?  They're going to avoid that ever happening again by any means necessary.
I liked when on Congressman asked FB how they made any money.  These hearings are pathetic.  They aren't getting grilled.  The heads of these companies do some PR posturing and move on.  It does have the benefit of making Congress look ridiculous though, I'm all for that.

I've been involved loosely in PR efforts by one major corporation and it is rather expertly done with a LOT of money, no holds barred, even if the money technically is completely wasted.

Biodegradable polymers. Ha.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 07, 2020, 06:37:55 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 07, 2020, 06:20:08 PM
I'm currently making some borrowed boeuf bourguignon and will be drinking some borrowed Bordeaux wine tonight.
You sound like that German Police Investigator in Young Frankenstein
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 07, 2020, 06:40:24 PM
I'm drinking from a magnum of Kirkland Chardonnay, it's not bad, for $8, for a mag.  OK with me.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 07, 2020, 07:07:00 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 07, 2020, 06:35:33 PM
The heads of these companies do some PR posturing and move on.  It does have the benefit of making Congress look ridiculous though, I'm all for that.
I mean, it's not like the internet is a truck. It's a series of tubes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Series_of_tubes).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 07, 2020, 07:11:11 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 07, 2020, 06:33:56 PM
Ya I know it's open to contributing information which broadens the data/input.Wasn't sure how they were edited though
It's community-contribution and community-edited. Which is good and bad.

In the worst case (controversial topics), it's subject to being hijacked by editors who only allow edits that fit their viewpoint. Which is bad.

Granted, when you're looking at Encyclopedia Brittanica, obviously that's edited likely by folks who only allow information they approve of as well. Which is equally bad, but it's not on the internet so we ignore it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 07, 2020, 07:14:04 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 07, 2020, 07:07:00 PM
. It's a series of tubes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Series_of_tubes).

It's the mirrors.


(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FaeKMSA3.png&hash=f23e419289094a2147c6f343fc92807f)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 07, 2020, 07:38:06 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on May 07, 2020, 10:03:54 AM
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MvgDQwJTiUc&feature=share

I stumbled across this. I’m not endorsing it as the gospel or anything but just thought it was interesting.
People cannot be this stupid.

Sigh.  Yes they can...

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 07, 2020, 09:50:07 PM
They always, always can and are.  And thus my disdain for "the masses."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 07, 2020, 10:12:36 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 07, 2020, 06:20:08 PM
I'm currently making some borrowed boeuf bourguignon and will be drinking some borrowed Bordeaux wine tonight.
You.. get your ass to my house. NOW.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 07, 2020, 10:31:21 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 07, 2020, 09:50:07 PM
They always, always can and are.  And thus my disdain for "the masses."
I suspect only a very small fringe buys into that sort of thing.  They are loud, but not numerous.

Our Founders were not fond of the masses either, which is why they set us up with the Electoral College among other things.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 07, 2020, 10:54:02 PM
(https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/845/497/f6d)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 07, 2020, 11:12:57 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 07, 2020, 10:12:36 PM
You.. get your ass to my house. NOW.
Would if I could.  Was so good, and the day stayed (sort-of) cool enough to justify the dish and the wine!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 08, 2020, 12:37:22 AM
Super interesting timing on that thread closing.  Sheeeesh.  Just as brazen as the WH itself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 08, 2020, 01:33:04 AM
There's no "free speech" guarantee when somebody else is providing the microphone.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 08, 2020, 01:46:13 AM
Of course, but the point remains.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 08, 2020, 08:26:16 AM
It's on time out. It needs to be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 08, 2020, 09:14:25 AM
Restaurants in Illinois now officially closed to dine-in customers until June 26. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 08, 2020, 09:38:30 AM
I think the response to Covid-19 was good, as long as we learn from it and have a plan for next time.  Yes, a next time is a certainty. 
For the next easily communicable novel virus, maybe we keep all elderly and young home at the outset.  Maybe non-disability unemployment benefits are frozen if you're between the ages of 25-40 - those over 60 will stay home with pay and they'll be replaced (where possible) in the work force by all of those of the median ages in the mean time. 

We can be cautious AND not halt the big, irresistable machine.  I hope we exit this thing (whenever) smarter than when it began.  Maybe the next president will do it.

The fact that Covid-19 doesn't seem to be as bad as once feared is sheer, dumb luck.  When it's such an unknown, caution is prudent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 08, 2020, 09:40:16 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 08, 2020, 09:14:25 AM
Restaurants in Illinois now officially closed to dine-in customers until June 26.
Man, sucks to be them! I have a wide selection of 7 or 8 restaurants in Austin that have chosen to open up for dine-in business (at 25% capacity).

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 08, 2020, 10:09:27 AM
Quote from: utee94 on May 08, 2020, 09:40:16 AM
Man, sucks to be them! I have a wide selection of 7 or 8 restaurants in Austin that have chosen to open up for dine-in business (at 25% capacity).


if you look at a virus map of Ill its pretty apparent that the vast amount of cases is the Chicago area so why subject the entire state to a restaurant close down 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 08, 2020, 10:20:18 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 08, 2020, 09:38:30 AM
The fact that Covid-19 doesn't seem to be as bad as once feared is sheer, dumb luck.
Isn't it? 

Despite taking measures unprecedented in the last century to restrict transmission, in the span of maybe 7-8 weeks it's killed more people than the worst flu season of the last decade. Despite those measures, we're still adding 25-30 thousand new confirmed cases per day. Despite those measures, the death rate may have declined slightly from its peak [largely due to slowdown in NY] but is holding stable at an average of over 1800 deaths/day (using 7-day rolling average). 

It is still believed to be both more transmissible and have several multiples (at minimum) higher true mortality rate than the flu, although we don't have great numbers/estimates of either. So the total societal impact (total infection rate multiplied by true mortality rate) if left unchecked will be far worse than the flu. 

Where we've been successful is that we didn't overwhelm the healthcare system. But in every other way, this looks about as dangerous as we feared.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 08, 2020, 10:32:05 AM
It is not as bad as it could have been in the dark days of early March when we didn't have any data, outside of Italy, which looked grim (and was).

The economic impact has been extreme obviously, the stock market is trying to forecast that it's mostly over (the damage).  Whether they are right or not ...

I'm still very worried about immunity, our death figures per day are stubbornly over 2,000 in the US and not appearing to decline, they are shifting from the NYC area to the rest of the country.  Things in general around me remain mostly closed and traffic remains very light, so the "reopening" obviously means you CAN, not that you have to, or that you have to go to any place that remains open.  The state is about at the point where we could be seeing new infections resulting from the governor's decision, but it will be tough to pry that out of the data with testing increasing as well.

This virus appears to be very deadly to older people, and my kid in Texas who is 32 says it is no picnic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 08, 2020, 10:33:23 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 08, 2020, 10:20:18 AM
Isn't it?

Despite taking measures unprecedented in the last century to restrict transmission, in the span of maybe 7-8 weeks it's killed more people than the worst flu season of the last decade. Despite those measures, we're still adding 25-30 thousand new confirmed cases per day. Despite those measures, the death rate may have declined slightly from its peak [largely due to slowdown in NY] but is holding stable at an average of over 1800 deaths/day (using 7-day rolling average).

It is still believed to be both more transmissible and have several multiples (at minimum) higher true mortality rate than the flu, although we don't have great numbers/estimates of either. So the total societal impact (total infection rate multiplied by true mortality rate) if left unchecked will be far worse than the flu.

Where we've been successful is that we didn't overwhelm the healthcare system. But in every other way, this looks about as dangerous as we feared.
There might have been a decrease in cases per day cause we dont know the total cases

and our testing has greatly increased over the last 3 weeks but per day case count has not

so we might be gaining on it some    maybe
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 08, 2020, 10:36:28 AM
From The Dispatch:

As of Thursday night, there are now 1,256,972 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States (an increase of 28,369/2.3 percent since yesterday) and 75,670 deaths (an increase of 2,239/3 percent increase since yesterday), according to the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html), leading to a mortality rate among confirmed cases of 6 percent (the true mortality rate is likely lower, but it’s impossible to determine precisely due to incomplete testing regimens). Of 8,105,513 coronavirus tests conducted in the United States (345,742 conducted since yesterday), 15.5 percent have come back positive.


(https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb21ba944-98bd-4687-ae95-3696bb559184_1486x1292.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 08, 2020, 10:44:44 AM
I believe we're just testing deeper and deeper into a heavily infected population.  It's impossible we'll ever reach that upper limit to where we're testing and confirming ALL true cases, and I don't think it's likely we'll ever get particularly close to it.

Testing is useful for individual treatment and contact tracing, it certainly has value, but in this country, I don't believe it's ever going provide valuable insight into total infections.  Accurate antibody testing is what will be required to make that determination.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 08, 2020, 11:00:31 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/0yArcnf.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 08, 2020, 11:01:41 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/hUpgCbt.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 08, 2020, 11:04:23 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/mlPBrRY.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 08, 2020, 11:26:27 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 08, 2020, 10:33:23 AM
There might have been a decrease in cases per day cause we dont know the total cases

and our testing has greatly increased over the last 3 weeks but per day case count has not

so we might be gaining on it some    maybe
I'd like to see test rates better broken out by geography. Are we greatly expanding testing in NYC or in Lubbock?

Edit: I should point out that daily test rates are available here by state: https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily (https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily) 

I just don't have the time to really look into it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 08, 2020, 11:46:26 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/QOkZ9cZ.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 08, 2020, 12:26:39 PM
There was a fascinating piece on how heart attack patients are not showing up in the ER at anything like normal numbers.  The docs think folks are scared to come in.

Strokes as well, the ERs apparently are quiet.

Part could be people are living with less stress (????).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 08, 2020, 12:35:05 PM
probably having heart attacks at home and the death being classified as COVID
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 08, 2020, 12:37:56 PM
Deaths due to all causes in the NYC area are running 3x normal.  The COVID coded deaths account for about half of that, the rest could be undiagnosed COVID cases.

Sweden appears to be doing "OK" with their approach, which includes distancing but few mandatory shut downs.  They are largely staying separated from each other.

I can't tell yet about Georgia, so much is still closed I'm not sure things have changed that much.  Traffic seems to be a bit higher.  The Albany area is bad, I am not sure why the governor didn't except them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 08, 2020, 12:46:59 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 08, 2020, 12:37:56 PM
Deaths due to all causes in the NYC area are running 3x normal.  The COVID coded deaths account for about half of that, the rest could be undiagnosed COVID cases.

Sweden appears to be doing "OK" with their approach, which includes distancing but few mandatory shut downs.  They are largely staying separated from each other.

I can't tell yet about Georgia, so much is still closed I'm not sure things have changed that much.  Traffic seems to be a bit higher.  The Albany area is bad, I am not sure why the governor didn't except them.

Could be.  I'm certain some of them are.

But, given the quiet of the ERs, I'd assume that there's a decent chunk of them that are simply heart attacks/stokes/etc. that never came into the hospital, either for fear of COVID, or because lack of access or transportation, that they might have had prior to the pandemic.  

To think that people just stopped having heart attacks, or strokes, isn't logical. And I doubt there's a ton of "slipped in a bathtub" deaths but to think there are zero wouldn't be logical either, because we know that and other strange physical accidents happen quite a bit in a city the size of NY.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 08, 2020, 01:42:11 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 08, 2020, 12:37:56 PM
Sweden appears to be doing "OK" with their approach, which includes distancing but few mandatory shut downs.  They are largely staying separated from each other.
I'm not sure how similar they are, but a Finnish guy told me the old joke (which I'd heard before applied to engineers): 

Q: How do you identify the extroverted Finn? 
A: He's the one looking at YOUR shoes. 

I think Sweden is doing ok... I think that as we start to approach reopening, we have something to learn from their approach. I'm a little concerned it won't translate, though. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 08, 2020, 04:41:55 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 08, 2020, 01:42:11 PM
I think Sweden is doing ok... I think that as we start to approach reopening, we have something to learn from their approach. I'm a little concerned it won't translate, though.
of course it won't translate. Nordic countries are smart. This one is stupid af.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 08, 2020, 06:29:39 PM
https://www.npr.org/2020/05/08/852451652/seen-plandemic-we-take-a-close-look-at-the-viral-conspiracy-video-s-claims (https://www.npr.org/2020/05/08/852451652/seen-plandemic-we-take-a-close-look-at-the-viral-conspiracy-video-s-claims)

The two "main hustles" appear to be this absurd Plandemic nonsense and separate claims Bill Gates is behind all this so as to microchip us all.

It's a tribute to how gullible humans are when they read something they want to believe.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 08, 2020, 06:57:01 PM
If you want some absurdity, look up Arizona.  
51st? in testing rate.
Made a big deal about a state-specific study.
Trump's visiting!  Was throwing the state-specific study in the trash.
We're following Trump's plan...but it's a secret plan.
Backlash.
Oops, we need to go back to our state-specific plan.  

...to be continued.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 08, 2020, 09:22:23 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 08, 2020, 06:29:39 PM
https://www.npr.org/2020/05/08/852451652/seen-plandemic-we-take-a-close-look-at-the-viral-conspiracy-video-s-claims (https://www.npr.org/2020/05/08/852451652/seen-plandemic-we-take-a-close-look-at-the-viral-conspiracy-video-s-claims)

The two "main hustles" appear to be this absurd Plandemic nonsense and separate claims Bill Gates is behind all this so as to microchip us all.

It's a tribute to how gullible humans are when they read something they want to believe.
I haven’t read all that and I don’t deal in conspiracy just fact. And just a couple quick facts here:

A group that Bill Gates’ foundation was involved with in India that was experimenting with vaccines on the Indian population was shut out by the government of India. Details of what exactly happened are a little hard to come by, but it 100% happened. The government of India took over and claimed it was because they didn’t want outsiders being involved/making health decisions/policy.

Bill Gates is 100% a part of/giant supporter of the id2020 program, a program that aims to give everyone in the world an electronic id and microchip. Microsoft was a founding member of id2020. That is fact, not conspiracy you can look it up.

Bill Gates isn’t all he’s cracked out to be. He’s still the little nerdy ego-maniac asshole that we saw in the deposition tapes two plus decades ago. He just has a great way of hiding it now.

https://www.globaljustice.org.uk/sites/default/files/gated_development_final_version.pdf
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 06:57:38 AM
The idea that ID2020 is going to microchip us all with a vaccine is .... a bit out there, for me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 09, 2020, 07:27:18 AM
I do not like Bill Gates. I do not like China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 07:56:48 AM
It's fine to dislike him.  I find the various rumors that he is extremely evil and wants to implant microchips in all of us to be ... non-main stream thinking.

I admit to being very doubtful of just about any conspiracy theory that is popular.  They imply, generally, that some humans are extraordinarily competent and nefarious.  And that can be the case rarely.  A group tends not to function well in my experience the larger it grows.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 09, 2020, 07:57:45 AM
we don't need no stinking microchips!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 09, 2020, 09:00:57 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 09, 2020, 07:57:45 AM
we don't need no stinking microchips!
tell that to my dog
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 09, 2020, 09:05:15 AM
Bill Gates was a ruthless and cutthroat businessman for decades.  I watched up close from within the industry as he crushed numerous companies through anticompetitive behavior of questionable legality.  

After his retirement, he seems to have changed, at least by appearances.  He's engaged in numerous philanthropic endeavors, so good for him.  I don't hate him, but I certainly won't ever trust him.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 09:06:52 AM
How many "nice guys" are CEOs of major corporations?

I knew one who appeared to be a nice guy.  Maybe he was.  The story was that some not very nice guys at the level just below him manipulated him.

Nice guys in the corporate world finish ..... not well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 09, 2020, 02:15:55 PM
Wait, that suggests the economic system in place rewards unethical practices!  Luckily, our political system is free from that sort of thing!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 09, 2020, 03:25:50 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 09, 2020, 07:27:18 AM
I do not like Bill Gates. I do not like China.
I'm with you. Add that dweeb Zuckerberg from Facebook and Jeff Beezos from Amazon to the list. Although if Beezos really does wind up buying the Detroit Lions and turns them into a Super Bowl winner, I'll give him a small pass.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 09, 2020, 03:56:48 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 06:57:38 AM
The idea that ID2020 is going to microchip us all with a vaccine is .... a bit out there, for me.
https://id2020.org/

probably one of the most disturbing websites I have ever seen. And who are the 3 main partners in id2020? Microsoft- one of the leading tech/cloud companies in the world. GAVI- the global alliance for vaccines and immunizations. Accenture- the masterminds behind the US gov't HealthCare.gov site. Accenture is a spin-off of the disgraced now defunct Arthur Andersen accounting firm- it was an American company but for tax/legal purposes moved the companies headquarters/incorporation from the US to Bermuda and then to Ireland where it's based now.

I love how corporations have person-hood and can move "citizenship" from country to country more freely than actual people can. LOL.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 09, 2020, 04:17:45 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 09, 2020, 07:57:45 AM
we don't need no stinking microchips!
great thing about this country- is our 1st and 2nd amendment. Our government ever tried that shit here in the US there would be a full on revolt. Brought a tear to my eye to see those people in Michigan storm the capital with their guns. Government should be afraid of the people. Not the other way around.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 04:23:26 PM
Corporations have had some of the same rights as individuals since the country was founded.  I was just reading about one of the decisions of the Marshall court about that.

The rumors about implanting microchips in humans are, in my view, "fantastic" in the literal sense of the word, just conspiratorial silliness.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 09, 2020, 04:48:08 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 04:23:26 PM
Corporations have had some of the same rights as individuals since the country was founded.  I was just reading about one of the decisions of the Marshall court about that.

The rumors about implanting microchips in humans are, in my view, "fantastic" in the literal sense of the word, just conspiratorial silliness.
The US constitution never mentioned corporate personhood. Corporations had some rights. Not all. And now it's swung in the complete opposite direction to the point where they have more rights than actual living breathing people. They didn't become "people" until passage of the 14th amendment which had clever wording- using the word person instead of citizen to include corporations in the 14th amendment- and a bunch of supreme court cases that followed bastardized and misinterpreted the amendment to basically grant corporations personhood. And it's absolute horseshit. And it needs to change. ASAP.

https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/history-corporate-personhood


The microchipping fad has already begun. It's still in it's infancy. So long as it stays voluntary, got no problem with it at all. IF countries ever decide to pass laws which state people have to get them- then we've got a major problem.

https://www.npr.org/2018/10/22/658808705/thousands-of-swedes-are-inserting-microchips-under-their-skin

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/nov/08/the-rise-of-microchipping-are-we-ready-for-technology-to-get-under-the-skin

https://www.post-gazette.com/opinion/editorials/2020/02/04/Dangerous-idea-States-should-ban-mandatory-microchipping/stories/202001290028
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 04:59:16 PM
I clearly stated that corporations have had SOME rights since the founding of the country.   AS for whatever needs to change "immediately", that clearly isn't going to happen.  The Constitution says what SCOTUS says it says, there is no recourse to that fact, except for a different SCOTUS down the line.

SOME.

And as for microchipping, the conspiracy "theory" is Gates is going to make us all get a vaccine that will contain a microchip unbeknownst to all but those "in the know".



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on May 09, 2020, 06:41:33 PM
How many NCAA athletic departments will be unable exact concessions from coaches and become insolvent if this thing continues into this fall and college football is on a reduced schedule, or even a full schedule without fans in stands?
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/columnist/dan-wolken/2020/04/02/coronavirus-cutting-college-coaches-pay-crisis-right-call-iowa-state/5116446002/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 09, 2020, 08:01:24 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 09, 2020, 04:17:45 PM
great thing about this country- is our 1st and 2nd amendment. Our government ever tried that shit here in the US there would be a full on revolt. Brought a tear to my eye to see those people in Michigan storm the capital with their guns. Government should be afraid of the people. Not the other way around.
I find that kind of LARPing odd.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 09, 2020, 10:54:35 PM
(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/73/ab/13/73ab13938c0706031590bb58613a3d0d.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 10, 2020, 12:32:44 AM
The Dispatch
Explaining the Intense Diplomatic Battle Between the U.S. and China
The Chinese Communist Party’s ‘Wolf Warriors’ have Secretary Pompeo in their crosshairs right now, but their agenda will outlast the Trump administration.

(https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6e84cf80-33e6-4e8d-8d42-f905bcb1f0bd_3384x2274.jpeg)

Thomas Joscelyn
May 7

During an interview (https://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/video/secretary-state-mike-pompeo-70478299) on ABC News’ This Week on May 3, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stumbled when Martha Raddatz asked him if he thought COVID-19 is “manmade or genetically modified.” Pompeo responded (https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/week-transcript-20-mike-pompeo-gov-mike-dewine/story?id=70478442): “Look, the best experts so far seem to think it was manmade. I have no reason to disbelieve that at this point.”

Raddatz quickly pointed out that the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), which oversees the sprawling U.S. intelligence community (IC), rejected this claim in a statement (https://twitter.com/ODNIgov/status/1255868108356681728) just a few days earlier. The IC “concurs with the wide scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not manmade or genetically modified,” the ODNI explains.

“That’s right. … I agree with that,” Pompeo said, contradicting his response from just a few moments earlier. “I have no reason to doubt that that is accurate at this point.”

‘The secretary of state’s misstep was unfortunate given the stakes. The U.S. and Chinese governments remain deadlocked in an information war over the coronavirus, its origins, and which parties are most culpable for the pandemic. And the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) “Wolf Warriors”—diplomats who brashly defend the Communist party against all critics—are gunning for Pompeo. Along with President Trump, he’s their No. 1 target. As the Los Angeles Times reports (https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-05-04/wolf-warrior-diplomats-defend-china-handling-coronavirus), the CCP’s “Wolf Warriors” get their name from popular action movies starring a Chinese commando who battles various foes “led by a villainous American named Big Daddy.”

Pompeo likely garbled two different theories of COVID-19’s origin. The theory that the Chinese engineered or weaponized COVID-19 in a lab is unsupported by the evidence. Scientists examining the genome of the virus can tell whether or not there has been any human tampering. To my knowledge, no credible scientist has come forward with evidence to suggest that is the case. This is why the ODNI has dismissed this claim. Absent any firm evidence to the contrary, the “Made-in-China” storyline will be relegated to the online fever swamp. 

The “leaked from a lab” theory is a bit murkier. The Trump administration and others have questioned whether or not the virus originated in a Wuhan research lab. According to the ODNI, the IC is still working “to determine whether the outbreak began through contact with infected animals or if it was a result of an accident at a laboratory in Wuhan.” Questioned about this version of events on Wednesday, Pompeo said that while there is no “certainty,” there is “significant evidence (https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1258045464664051712)” showing that the virus came from a lab—and not an exotic animal eatery. We don’t know what this evidence is, but the ODNI says this possibility hasn’t been ruled out.

America’s intelligence analysts currently can’t say for certain whether it came from a lab or not. Why? This type of assessment requires more than the expertise of virologists or other scientists. It requires evidence of what exactly transpired inside Wuhan, including how the virus was spread by Patient Zero. This is no easy puzzle to crack, in no small part due to the CCP’s own pattern of obfuscation.

The lab in question rejects both theories of what transpired. On April 28, Reuters published (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-lab/china-lab-rejects-covid-19-conspiracy-claims-but-virus-origins-still-a-mystery-idUSKCN22A0MM) a report based on written responses by Yuan Zhiming, a professor at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV). Yuan is also the director of the WIV’s National Biosafety Laboratory, the same facility America’s spies are currently scrutinizing. Yuan dismissed the weaponization speculation as “malicious,” dismissing the theory as having been “pulled out of thin air.” He also rejected the notion of an accidental infection. Yuan didn’t offer an alternative hypothesis, writing only that there are “still no answers” regarding the virus’s origins.

China’s “Wolf Warriors” chase Pompeo.

China’s “Wolf Warriors” have been even more aggressive in their pushback—especially in their rhetoric aimed at Pompeo. During a press conference on Wednesday, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying demanded that Pompeo present the “enormous evidence” he claims to have. Hua is one of China’s alpha “Wolf Warriors.” She maintains an active Twitter account (https://twitter.com/SpokespersonCHN?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), with more than 400,000 followers. If you watch her perform in front of journalists, you can tell she is itching to fight.

“The origin of [the] virus is a complex and controversial issue, but there is a broad consensus in the international community that it is a very serious scientific issue that must be studied by scientists and medical experts on the basis of facts and science,” Hua said, in response to a question about Pompeo’s claims. “At present, almost all the top scientists in the world, including famous scientists in the United States and experts in the field of disease control and prevention, believe that novel coronavirus originated from nature, not man-made, and there is no evidence of any so-called virus leakage from the laboratory.”

Hua repeatedly blasted Pompeo, claiming he can’t present any evidence showing the virus leaked from a lab. “How could he bring it out?” she asked herself. And then she answered: “Because he didn't have it!” She also went into a Blame America First diatribe about how the U.S. “used germ weapons during the Korean War and Agent Orange during the Vietnam War.” It was her attempt to deflect from the issues at hand.

As far as the intelligence on Pompeo’s mind, it may not be as simple as Hua claims. It is possible that the evidence Pompeo is relying on comes from secretive intercepts, or other intelligence concerning the CCP’s behavior in and around the lab as the coronavirus outbreak became known. This evidence may not be a slam dunk, but like much intelligence collection, uncertain.

China pursues “discourse power”

Hua is right that “facts and science” are crucial for our understanding of COVID-19. But it is rich to hear her say that. Her colleague at China’s Foreign Ministry, Zhao Lijian, infamously claimed (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3075051/chinese-foreign-ministry-spokesman-tweets-claim-us-military) on his own prolific Twitter account that the U.S. military may have brought COVID-19 to Wuhan. This was part of the “Wolf Warriors” aggressive disinformation campaign (https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-pushes-viral-messages-to-shape-coronavirus-narrative-11586516402?mod=article_inline) as the war of words between the U.S. and China heated up. While Twitter is banned inside China, the “Wolf Warriors” use multiple Twitter accounts to spread their own messages on behalf of the CCP.

When it comes to international diplomacy, the CCP isn’t really beholden to “facts and science.” Instead, the party is attempting to increase what it calls its “discourse power” —a concept Xi Jinping and his comrades use to explain their objections to a U.S.-led global order. As with many Chinese terms, it is difficult to define.

In essence, the CCP complains that the current international system was established by the U.S. and its allies before China’s rise to power over the past four decades. According to Beijing, current international laws and rules were written mainly by the West and need to be either erased entirely or substantially rewritten. Once this global order is reset in Beijing’s favor, the CCP’s word will carry more weight, because material power (both military and economic) determines whose version of the truth is victorious. It is a version of power politics that is opposed to Western values. “Discourse power” doesn’t rely on who has the better of the facts. It’s all about the power to shape narratives to one’s own liking.

China’s “discourse power” was one of the key subjects discussed at a public roundtable discussion held by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (https://www.uscc.gov/hearings/roundtable-china-model-beijings-promotion-alternative-global-norms-and-standards) in late April. Some of the experts who remotely testified at the event defined the Chinese concept for Americans, who may find it puzzling.

“As China’s power has grown, the Chinese leadership now feels entitled to follow a path similar to the U.S and to set the terms for institutions and norms that will reflect China’s preferences and serve as the building blocks of a new order,” Nadège Rolland, a senior fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research, explained in her written testimony (https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/testimonies/USCC%20China%20Model%20Testimony%20March%202020_NR_FINAL_justified_paginated.pdf). “However, even though China’s material or ‘hard’ power has undoubtedly increased, the leadership believes that it still lacks ‘discourse power’,” Rolland added. She explained that the CCP doesn’t have “any appealing substitutes to the existing set of international norms and values,” as the party’s ideology has evolved into an “idiosyncratic mix” that is difficult to export. This hurts the CCP’s ability to shape the public discourse.

Nevertheless, according to Rolland, “Chinese strategists” have defined “discourse power” as an “ability to voice concepts and ideas that are accepted and respected by others, and by extension, the power to dictate the rules and norms that form the basis of the international order.”

Similarly, David Shullman, a senior adviser at the International Republican Institute, explained (https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/testimonies/Shullman_Testimony_USCC_FINAL.pdf) that the CCP “seeks greater control over the formulations and ideas that underpin the international order.” After the CCP has obtained this “discourse power,” it can “water down norms around liberal democracy as China takes on a more central global role.”

COVID-19 threatens China’s “discourse power.”

Once you begin to understand China’s novel view of international diplomacy, you see why COVID-19 threatens the CCP’s vision of its own role both at home, and in the so-called global order. Although the mask was already starting to slip on the CCP’s intentions, coronavirus has exacerbated some of its “Wolf Warrior’s” worst tendencies.

In late April, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison endorsed calls for an independent inquiry into COVID-19’s origins. Morrison said (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-29/scott-morrison-coronavirus-press-conference-main-points/12197040) it is “entirely reasonable and sensible that the world would want to have an independent assessment of how this all occurred, so we can learn the lessons and prevent it from happening again.” He didn’t go out of his way to blame China. Morrison even refused to repeat (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/video/2020/may/05/australian-pm-scott-morrison-coronavirus-most-likely-originated-in-wuhan-market-video) President Trump’s claim that the virus could have originated in a lab, saying it was more likely to have come from a wet market. But the CCP’s propaganda organs quickly went to work anyway.

CCP media accused Australia of “panda bashing (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/29/australia-defends-plan-to-investigate-china-over-covid-19-outbreak-as-row-deepens),” describing Morrison’s country as “gum stuck to China’s shoe (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/28/australia-called-gum-stuck-to-chinas-shoe-by-state-media-in-coronavirus-investigation-stoush).” China’s ambassador to Australia, Cheng Jingye, suggested in an interview with the Australian Financial Review that an economic boycott may be in the works. “[M]aybe the ordinary people will think why they should drink Australian wine or eat Australian beef,” Cheng said. “Why couldn't we do it differently?”

Australia isn’t the only country experiencing the brunt of China’s aggressive diplomacy. The New York Times reports (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/world/europe/backlash-china-coronavirus.html) that countries throughout Europe and Africa are part of a “global backlash” to the CCP’s “Wolf Warrior” Diplomacy. America isn’t the only country deeply suspicious of the CCP’s actions surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic.

As Rolland told the Los Angeles Times, the criticism from foreign countries “strikes right at the heart of one of the myths that the party has been cultivating to bolster its legitimacy at home: that the [CCP] is efficient, competent and capable, and that it is the only one able to effectively lead the nation.” It also further jeopardizes the CCP’s quest to claim the mantle of global leadership.

Facts vs. “discourse power.”

Pompeo clearly sees much to fault in China’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. The secretary of state isn’t wrong in this regard, even though President Trump’s domestic political considerations are always a factor and the administration is keen to avoid blame for any of its own missteps. The president is also notoriously fact-challenged. Pompeo’s jumbled response on This Week didn’t help matters either. 

But this is an opportunity for America to check the CCP’s attempt to remake the global order. And that’s what makes the facts so vital. Nations need to be assured that the American-led order adheres to something more than just the raw power to shape discourse. 

The precise origin of COVID-19 is important, not just for public health reasons, but also in the diplomatic gun fight between the U.S. and China. Yet, that is not the only issue that matters in this war of words.

The State Department is on safer ground pointing to the CCP’s suppression of early whistleblowers (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51403795) in Wuhan, outrageous disinformation campaign, heavy-handed diplomacy, publication of dubious statistics (https://thedispatch.com/p/there-is-no-reason-to-believe-china) on the number of infections within China, reported concealment (https://apnews.com/bf685dcf52125be54e030834ab7062a8) of the virus’s severity, and general lack of transparency regarding what exactly transpired inside Wuhan. The State Department also accuses the CCP’s National Health Commission of destroying early samples of the virus.

All of these issues require a careful analysis of the facts, whether one has “discourse power” or not.

Photograph of Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying by Artyom Ivanov/TASS/Getty Images.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 10, 2020, 12:42:38 AM
As 94 has stated - I weep for the future
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 10, 2020, 09:34:47 AM
I don't usually read a post that long
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 10, 2020, 10:51:06 AM
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/infectious-disease-experts-expect-a-surge-in-georgias-covid-19-cases/ (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/infectious-disease-experts-expect-a-surge-in-georgias-covid-19-cases/)

The consensus forecast of 1,044 new confirmed cases per day in two weeks suggests that Georgia will see a substantial worsening of the virus’s spread as a result of reopening. The daily number of new confirmed cases is forecast to be somewhere between 579 and 2,292, with six experts indicating that an increase to 2,000 or more new cases a day is plausible.  The 7 day moving average today is 622.

It is May 10 obviously, and thus far no surge is evident.  This could be in part be due to the fact that not much has changed in reality.  There were 404 new cases yesterday. 

The seven-day moving average for newly confirmed cases in the Peach State stood at just over 700 per day on April 20.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 10, 2020, 10:54:47 AM
The consensus forecast of 1,044 new confirmed cases per day

consensus???
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 10, 2020, 10:58:12 AM
Consensus of the health experts they surveyed on April 20.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 10, 2020, 10:59:26 AM
they all forecast 1,044 new confirmed cases per day?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 10, 2020, 11:00:25 AM
Of course not, estimates all varied.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 10, 2020, 11:47:05 AM
Perhaps "consensus" does not mean what the author of that piece thinks it means.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 10, 2020, 12:27:20 PM
I'm sure I'm just not reading that line properly

The consensus forecast of 1,044 new confirmed cases per day in two weeks suggests that Georgia will see a substantial worsening of the virus’s spread as a result of reopening. The daily number of new confirmed cases is forecast to be somewhere between 579 and 2,292, with six experts indicating that an increase to 2,000 or more new cases a day is plausible.  The 7 day moving average today is 622.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 10, 2020, 01:05:40 PM
Watch Dr. Anthony Fauci's Ex-employee Tell All

By James T. Harris

https://kfyi.iheart.com/content/2020-05-06-coronavirus-watch-dr-anthony-faucis-ex-employee-tell-all/ (https://kfyi.iheart.com/content/2020-05-06-coronavirus-watch-dr-anthony-faucis-ex-employee-tell-all/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 10, 2020, 01:21:20 PM
We just walked quite a ways south.  I'd say 90% of restaurants are closed or take out only.  Some have reopened for dining, we stuck our head in STK, a nearby steak place.  The tables are really separated, probably 12 feet.  They had zero diners, on Mother's Day, not a soul.  He said it was usually their busiest day of the year.

We have not tried it, it's mostly steak, ha, and pricey.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 10, 2020, 01:38:08 PM
mother's day was always the busiest day at the Olive Garden here

my daughter should be working, but is not
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 10, 2020, 01:53:47 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/vPFvaUz.png)

I'm going to track the reported moving averages.  Another factor of course is that more testing is being done.

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/IjORDGLckdP3RI9hJU5CWO/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/IjORDGLckdP3RI9hJU5CWO/)

Using these figures, the 7 day moving average is 613, the ten day MA is 696 (I had a small error before).  The peak date thus far was on 4/7 at 1,600 new cases.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 10, 2020, 02:02:16 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 10, 2020, 01:53:47 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/vPFvaUz.png)

I'm going to track the reported moving averages.  Another factor of course is that more testing is being done.

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/IjORDGLckdP3RI9hJU5CWO/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/IjORDGLckdP3RI9hJU5CWO/)

Using these figures, the 7 day moving average is 613, the ten day MA is 696 (I had a small error before).  The peak date thus far was on 4/7 at 1,600 new cases. 
I'm more interested in percentage of positive tests. As more and more tests are completed, the case count could rise, particularly among those who show little to no symptoms. It seems obvious that daily cases will rise as testing is increased.

And if the rates do increase, it will be blamed on "opening" up the state, which may not be accurate.

We need the antibody tests more than anything, in my opinion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 10, 2020, 02:07:50 PM
https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/IjORDGLckdP3RI9hJU5CWO/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/IjORDGLckdP3RI9hJU5CWO/)

235,000 tests conducted cumulatively.  32,568 were positive, about 10%.

Number of tests is going up much faster than number of positives for obvious reasons.

The state population is about 10.6 million.  Oddly enough, 60% of the population lives in metro ATL.

The weather today is perfect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: huskerdinie on May 10, 2020, 02:21:28 PM
I don't know about the restaurants here in Lincoln, but I just got back from a grocery run to Walmart ( I can't believe there was absolutely NO Worchestershire sauce in the entire store! Who uses that much?) and had to dodge a kazillion people out getting last minute flowers / candy for Mother's Day, and a lot of people getting hot dogs, etc.  Looks like there will be a lot of grilling out this year instead of restaurant food.  Makes it feel like Father's Day, lol.  

Our local surgical hospital is allowing elective surgeries again and so my cataract surgery is scheduled for tomorrow. I have also been able to postpone lab work for medication refills so have not had to go to the clinic as yet.  Traffic is almost the same as it was two months ago and in public it is about 50/50 on the wearing of masks; some do, some don't.  

The major problem for my family has been that vacation plans, Mom's internment and a family reunion have all been cancelled or postponed to a later day.  We are all so far flung that it would require us to cross state lines and thus incur a two week self isolation upon returning home; none of us are financially able to do that, so no traveling for us.  

I am running out of old Husker games to watch, so am now recycling back through and watching more TV shows on Netflix or DVD's I have.  Have already cycled through eight different book series I own and started a new series through my library on Hoopla Digital.  

In other words, all this hasn't affected my retirement much, lol.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 10, 2020, 03:01:18 PM
I hope all goes well for you tomorrow.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 10, 2020, 03:02:22 PM
Good luck, and Happy Mother's Day, HD.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 10, 2020, 03:13:13 PM
Good luck with the surgery, and Happy Mother's Day
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 10, 2020, 03:14:25 PM
was mixing Bloody Mary's yesterday for my golf team, NO Worchestershire sauce in the entire house

I substituted soy sauce
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 10, 2020, 03:19:23 PM
Everything is pretty plentiful here. Went to Publix (grr) this AM to get flowers and a couple of things I can't get elsewhere. 

Unbelievably, they were out of TP (I don't need any, but went down that aisle to get napkins). 

I don't get it.

Bought some hand sanitizer and Clorox wipes at Ace yesterday, so there's that. Lots of stores are selling surgical masks too. CVS had loads of them. My wife has some that she made so we're good. If anyone needs a mask (hers are pretty nice) PM me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 10, 2020, 03:38:40 PM
My kids used to send me flowers on Mother's Day.  Now they send them to their stepmom, who they like a lot.

I am not sure why she married me, frankly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 10, 2020, 03:47:08 PM
I don't have a mask

hope I'll never need one
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 10, 2020, 03:49:05 PM
We have some surgical masks.  I wear one if I am near someone, like in the elevator, out of courtesy.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 10, 2020, 03:57:08 PM
That's when you're supposed to wear it, lol.  When I go to the post office, I put it on as i get out of the car.  I take it back off as I get back in my car.  

No rights taken away.  No liberties forfeited.  Just common sense and 7 minutes of the most minimal of discomfort.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 10, 2020, 04:11:08 PM
I'm not concerned regarding rights taken away or liberties.

I just feel it's unneeded.  For me or others in public.

If the governor decides I am required to wear one, I won't have a problem with it.

if others feel better while wearing a mask, that's great.

if others feel they are at risk if I'm not wearing a mask, they probably shouldn't be out in public where they might encounter me.

if I had ANY reason to think I might have the virus, I would limit my time outside the house and I'd wear a mask if I was forced to be near anyone else  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 10, 2020, 04:13:09 PM
We can have it and not know it for days, which is one of the issues with this one.

I don't mind wearing one when I'm in Kroger or whatever.  We're not somehow required to wear one walking down the street.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 10, 2020, 04:17:21 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 10, 2020, 04:11:08 PM
if I had ANY reason to think I might have the virus, I would limit my time outside the house and I'd wear a mask if I was forced to be near anyone else 
Yeah.
a-symp-to-mat-ic
adjective
(of a condition or a person) producing or showing no symptoms
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 10, 2020, 05:42:51 PM
So, what happens IF (as we all devoutly hope) Georgia and Sweden don't incur some kind of calamity in the coming weeks?  (Not a prediction, simply a possibility.)

I am attempting to track both closely.  The models suggest something pretty close to a calamity, a surge, hospitals being overrun in Sweden, etc.

I know some will claim it as evidence we overreacted, but one could also claim because we overreacted, this was possible.

Or we see a surge and have to shut it down again, which would mean among other things a collapsing stock market and economy and no CFB.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 10, 2020, 07:08:24 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 10, 2020, 05:42:51 PM
So, what happens IF (as we all devoutly hope) Georgia and Sweden don't incur some kind of calamity in the coming weeks?  (Not a prediction, simply a possibility.)

I am attempting to track both closely.  The models suggest something pretty close to a calamity, a surge, hospitals being overrun in Sweden, etc.

I know some will claim it as evidence we overreacted, but one could also claim because we overreacted, this was possible.

Or we see a surge and have to shut it down again, which would mean among other things a collapsing stock market and economy and no CFB.


Georgia sure is looking good so far

hope it holds
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 10, 2020, 09:18:34 PM
*https://www.businessinsider.com/deborah-birx-cdc-comments-coronavirus-task-force-meeting-2020-5 (https://www.businessinsider.com/deborah-birx-cdc-comments-coronavirus-task-force-meeting-2020-5)*

Birx said 'there is nothing from the CDC that I can trust' in a White House coronavirus task force meeting
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 10, 2020, 09:46:00 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 10, 2020, 09:18:34 PM
*https://www.businessinsider.com/deborah-birx-cdc-comments-coronavirus-task-force-meeting-2020-5 (https://www.businessinsider.com/deborah-birx-cdc-comments-coronavirus-task-force-meeting-2020-5)*

Birx said 'there is nothing from the CDC that I can trust' in a White House coronavirus task force meeting

That article is an interesting brand of aggregation. Dig through another story, find the spiciest detail and bring it to the forefront with a nice and sensational headline. 

I'm more interested in the why. The explanation is an antiquated system is inflating numbers. I wonder the mechanics of that. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 10, 2020, 10:02:50 PM
Depends on how legit the CDC is anymore at this point,every one is a liar except for you and me and I'm not so sure about you
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 10, 2020, 11:03:34 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 10, 2020, 10:02:50 PM
Depends on how legit the CDC is anymore at this point,every one is a liar except for you and me and I'm not so sure about you
You trust yourself to not be a liar? First step to being the sucker
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on May 11, 2020, 02:08:24 AM
I will rely upon a high school teammate. He was 6' 3" or 4" pleadings with us from a hospital bed in Iowa, to take face masking seriously. Do so or do not do so at your peril.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 08:18:22 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 10, 2020, 07:08:24 PM
Georgia sure is looking good so far

hope it holds
One day spike yesterday to 940 new cases.  And yes, there is more testing of course, I'm trying to look at trends rather than single day figures, obviously they bounce a lot.

This does boost the 7 and 10 day MA obv.

This is about the time new cases would be showing up if things are worse because of Kemp's decision.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 11, 2020, 09:18:00 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 10, 2020, 11:03:34 PM
You trust yourself to not be a liar? First step to being the sucker
Sorry I didn't use the sarcasm font but you know exactly who to trust?Keep us in the loop then.You'll have to excuse me as I've been helping Cindy's friend clear out her hair salon,that it appears she's losing after 30 +years. Because of the worst pandemic that has ever hit mankind but her and I in our ignorance don't know of anyone who's died of this horrble affliction.But it won't be a depression until others start losing their shit - right?I mean that's what I've been told.The only good thing is her kids are out of the house.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2020, 09:25:18 AM
We need to open up, smartly. States like Illinois were already in financial ruin, and states like Illinois are the ones staying on lockdown. The governor has set goals for opening, that might not ever be reached. This is not smart policy.

There is no reason for cities like Ottawa, IL to be shut down. You want to keep Chicago closed? OK, I can understand that one. These policies are killing small businesses all over the state - the backbone.

In Florida you can go get a haircut starting today. I've learned to cut my own, so no need. A lot of people have done this, I would think, which is gonna put a hurt on hair salons and barber shops.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 09:25:50 AM
There is reason not to trust various figures, but they are what we have.  They could be low or high or average out to about right.

The reported figures in the US show a pretty steady 2,000 deaths per day attributed to COVID.  The total death rates in some areas like NYC is 3 times what is typical for this time of year.  Reported COVID deaths account for about half that increase.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 09:29:38 AM
The barbershops here are by appointment only, and appear to be operating at a much slower rate.  I imagine the salons and nail places are the same.  Most malls have opened, but as noted, hardly anyone is shopping there.  You can "reopen" and find many many people don't play along.

Someone might flip a switch and say "OK, everything is back to normal, everything" and you'd find initially maybe a quarter of the missing activity perked up, and that would diminish if numbers started looking bad.  Initially it would grow of course.

Folks are scared, many folks.  The cruise lines are shut down, I see air travel is 10% normal if that, hotels are shut down.  Even restaurants that are open are barely seeing any diners.  Legal reopening doesn't mean throwing a switch.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 09:35:10 AM
The numbers for Sweden look like the numbers for Georgia, which is interesting, both have about the same population, Sweden of course is only doing distancing, Georgia was shuttered for a few weeks.

The reporting methods likely are different.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2020, 09:44:43 AM
I understand all of that, but people need to have a choice here too. 

I take comfort knowing I can go get a haircut if I wanted to. That is much different than being told I can't. People need to get their confidence back too. Everyone is scared.

Antibody testing, already!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 11, 2020, 09:50:15 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 09:35:10 AM
The numbers for Sweden look like the numbers for Georgia, which is interesting, both have about the same population, Sweden of course is only doing distancing, Georgia was shuttered for a few weeks.

The reporting methods likely are different.
Georgia has less than half the number of deaths/1M population of Sweden, although it has about a 20% higher cases/1M population number. Sweden may be under-testing, as they only have about 60% of the overall tests performed as Georgia, so the case numbers may be suspect.

Sweden just passed the Netherlands, after passing Ireland, to be 6th* on the list of deaths/1M population.

At 322 deaths/1M, they're now one of the higher nations in Europe. When compared to their "peers", Finland is only at 49 deaths/1M, and Norway is at 40 deaths/1M.

Oddly, Finland's daily new case numbers seem to be increasing steadily while Norway's are very low. I don't have much of an explanation for that...

But it suggests to those who are advocating a controlled and careful opening up**, perhaps at least to Sweden-style policies, that there will be a human cost associated with that. Sweden has managed to avoid overwhelming their healthcare system, but at best you can say they've had Coronavirus on a controlled burn, nowhere near extinguishing it.

BTW the US would be 9th on that list at 244 deaths/1M, but only 8 of our states have death/1M numbers higher than Sweden's, and our numbers are HIGHLY dominated by NY/NJ. Combined, they're a little over 40% of our total deaths.

* Note: that's 6th amongst populous nations. I don't think it's wrong to pull San Marino, Andorra, and Sint Maarten out of the list as they're too small to be relevant and none have more than 50 deaths total, but I don't want to be accused of not disclosing it. With those nations added, Sweden would be 9th.

** I honestly now consider myself in this group. I don't think this thing CAN be extinguished, no matter how long we keep the economy closed. Especially not in America, where we simply won't accept a China-style lockdown. I don't think it's going away for the summer either. So if we're on a controlled burn trajectory, we need to--as someone said recently here--start "feathering the throttle" on reopening. The goal is to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system, and slowly build to herd immunity, while allowing businesses to actually start making money and employing people again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2020, 09:58:04 AM
Is there any reliable data on co-morbidities in this thing? I remember Italy reporting some of that stuff, with most of their deaths having 3 or more, along with CV19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 10:00:12 AM
I had looked at Daily New Cases reported in Georgia, and then in Sweden, and the graphs looked pretty similar.

Stuff around me, as I keep noting, is still mostly closed.  Things are reopening slowly but a huge swath closed remains closed.  

Even best case, it will be months before we start having conventions, which was a huge part of the local economy, and of course the airport is way down and it also is a huge part of the local economy.  There is a lot of construction and that continues as before, but the proposed new construction appears to be largely on hold, so that might not last forever.  These projects take roughly two years to complete, and then they may be largely empty buildings.

I don't see a good path back, frankly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 11, 2020, 10:04:02 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 11, 2020, 09:50:15 AM
Georgia has less than half the number of deaths/1M population of Sweden, although it has about a 20% higher cases/1M population number. Sweden may be under-testing, as they only have about 60% of the overall tests performed as Georgia, so the case numbers may be suspect.

Sweden just passed the Netherlands, after passing Ireland, to be 6th* on the list of deaths/1M population.

At 322 deaths/1M, they're now one of the higher nations in Europe. When compared to their "peers", Finland is only at 49 deaths/1M, and Norway is at 40 deaths/1M.

Oddly, Finland's daily new case numbers seem to be increasing steadily while Norway's are very low. I don't have much of an explanation for that...

But it suggests to those who are advocating a controlled and careful opening up**, perhaps at least to Sweden-style policies, that there will be a human cost associated with that. Sweden has managed to avoid overwhelming their healthcare system, but at best you can say they've had Coronavirus on a controlled burn, nowhere near extinguishing it.

BTW the US would be 9th on that list at 244 deaths/1M, but only 8 of our states have death/1M numbers higher than Sweden's, and our numbers are HIGHLY dominated by NY/NJ. Combined, they're a little over 40% of our total deaths.

* Note: that's 6th amongst populous nations. I don't think it's wrong to pull San Marino, Andorra, and Sint Maarten out of the list as they're too small to be relevant and none have more than 50 deaths total, but I don't want to be accused of not disclosing it. With those nations added, Sweden would be 9th.

** I honestly now consider myself in this group. I don't think this thing CAN be extinguished, no matter how long we keep the economy closed. Especially not in America, where we simply won't accept a China-style lockdown. I don't think it's going away for the summer either. So if we're on a controlled burn trajectory, we need to--as someone said recently here--start "feathering the throttle" on reopening. The goal is to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system, and slowly build to herd immunity, while allowing businesses to actually start making money and employing people again.


We didn't know it 8 weeks ago, so I don't contest the wisdom of attempting strict lock-down, but I believe it is now apparent that this is all we were ever going to be able to do.  The virus got here too quickly, and it's too infectious, ever to have eliminated it or stopped transmission.  All we could ever do was attempt to slow down transmission enough so that we didn't compound the deaths by overrunning the hospitals.

I also think that every single country that locked down "better" than we did, is simply going to push out the date of their final death tally.  As we see in South Korea, China, and Singapore, cases are on the rise once again, the moment people begin interacting with one another.  I don't know if there exists an amount of time where a pure lockdown could eliminate this thing, but if such a time exists, it's certainly not realistic or tolerable for humans to remain quarantined for that long, and still have a viable nation to return to "when this is all over."

Only choice now is to reopen carefully, monitor the hospitals for capacity, and ideally get a reliable antibody test en masse to the public.  That does, of course, assume that some reasonable amount of immunity is conferred.  If not, then that part doesn't matter, either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 11, 2020, 10:10:52 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2020, 09:58:04 AM
Is there any reliable data on co-morbidities in this thing? I remember Italy reporting some of that stuff, with most of their deaths having 3 or more, along with CV19.
Has anyone here even seen an exhaustive list of co-morbidities?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 10:16:10 AM
The main comorbidity frankly is being in just about any kind of compromised health situation, obesity, asthma, diabetes, age, immune system deficiency ....

I don't think there is one unusual thing t hat makes this more lethal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2020, 10:17:06 AM
All of the hospitals built for this thing need to remain available. There aren't going to be conventions this year, so I hope they remain.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2020, 10:18:14 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 11, 2020, 10:10:52 AM
Has anyone here even seen an exhaustive list of co-morbidities?
I have not - only vague statements here and there. We know what they are, but I would like to know how many CV19 deaths had one, two, three, etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 11:17:25 AM
Longer term, I am trying to guess what large impacts this may have on how we function.  I look at all the construction going on around us here, much of it office space ....

And if you can "work from home" and don't need office space, what does that mean for the desire to live close to work?

I can see the possibility of a long duration economic downturn here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 11, 2020, 11:19:15 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2020, 10:17:06 AM
All of the hospitals built for this thing need to remain available. There aren't going to be conventions this year, so I hope they remain.
I don't think there will be full stadiums of football fans either
I'm doubting that we have a football season
all it will take to shutdown the season is for one or two P5 teams to be infected

50 kids on a 100 man roster get sick and one of them dies, or the support staff of another 100, and the NCAA will shut things down
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 11, 2020, 11:35:01 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 11, 2020, 11:19:15 AM
I don't think there will be full stadiums of football fans either
I'm doubting that we have a football season
all it will take to shutdown the season is for one or two P5 teams to be infected

50 kids on a 100 man roster get sick and one of them dies, or the support staff of another 100, and the NCAA will shut things down
I think you're underestimating how many kids never engaged in social distancing, never stopped meeting, and have already been exposed to this.  They just did it behind closed doors.  They're young and feel invincible, they don't believe there's any danger to them from this, and for the most part, they're right.

In a couple of months, if/when we get reliable antibody testing, I think we're going to find that a large segment of the younger population has already had it. A much higher percentage of them will test positive for antibodies, compared to "adults."  

At that point, there's no more justification for shutting things down "if just one player gets it" because tons will have already had it.  

But the key is antibody testing, along with the knowledge that immunity is conferred.  If not, well, all bets are off and everything we've done is pretty pointless anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 11, 2020, 11:40:37 AM
one death. not one infection

if a football team with 100 on the roster gets it, the percentage will be high, maybe 50%

if 5 kids get very sick, that will be cause for concern

if one kid dies......... it's game over

we just had a death reported this morning in this county of 103,000 - age 19-30

obviously great chance that young person had other health issues
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 11, 2020, 11:59:09 AM
you guys are really putting out negative vibes

we are going to beat this thing with a miracle drug that will be available in the next few months

see I can project just like you guys do with no evidence at all
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 11, 2020, 12:08:14 PM


Gene Rodenberry dreamed of a cell phone,Jules Verne Dreamed about submarines and self conatined breathing apparatus,Edison dreamed about electric light bulbs,Michelangelo dreamed of many inventions while painting the Sisten Chapel.Later on these things came to fruition - it's not out of the realm
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 11, 2020, 12:12:15 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 11, 2020, 11:40:37 AM
one death. not one infection

if a football team with 100 on the roster gets it, the percentage will be high, maybe 50%

if 5 kids get very sick, that will be cause for concern

if one kid dies......... it's game over

we just had a death reported this morning in this county of 103,000 - age 19-30

obviously great chance that young person had other health issues

There are already so many more threat vectors in that age group than just playing this game.  They're still hooking up and having sex with other young people, that never stopped.  They're till going to house parties and drinking, that never stopped.  And now that restaurants and parks and beaches are opening up, they don't have to hide it behind closed doors.  Any spreading that's going to occur in that age group is already well underway, and will get much much more common over the next 4-8 weeks.

Like I keep saying, things are going to look very different two months from now.   You simply can't apply your current lens, to what this issue is going to look like at the end of the summer.  It won't be anywhere close.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 11, 2020, 12:19:30 PM
I hope you are right

I hope we have a football season

and best case would be because most of us are immune and almost all the players are immune
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 11, 2020, 12:24:07 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 11, 2020, 12:19:30 PM
I hope you are right

I hope we have a football season

and best case would be because most of us are immune and almost all the players are immune

The Southern schools are going to resume classes on-campus.  The PAC=west and NW might not.  Not sure about the Northeastern schools either.

So if we do have college football, it might not be everyone.  It'll be interesting to see how they proceed with those holes in the schedule to be filled.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 11, 2020, 12:28:42 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 11, 2020, 12:24:07 PM
The Southern schools are going to resume classes on-campus.  The PAC=west and NW might not.  Not sure about the Northeastern schools either.

So if we do have college football, it might not be everyone.  It'll be interesting to see how they proceed with those holes in the schedule to be filled.

so we put Austin State School on our schedule and carry on
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 11, 2020, 12:45:26 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 11, 2020, 12:24:07 PM
  It'll be interesting to see how they proceed with those holes in the schedule to be filled.
As long as there are no holes in the roster
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 11, 2020, 12:51:52 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 11, 2020, 12:24:07 PM
The Southern schools are going to resume classes on-campus.  The PAC=west and NW might not.  Not sure about the Northeastern schools either.

this is the plan now.  hopefully, the opening of Georgia and other states doesn't cause a surge that will change the plan.

holes in the schedule can be overcome.  I know it's not easy, but when huge $$$ are at stake, it can happen.  Even a conference schedule with one or two non-con games is worth a ton of cash.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 11, 2020, 12:56:39 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 11, 2020, 10:04:02 AM
We didn't know it 8 weeks ago, so I don't contest the wisdom of attempting strict lock-down, but I believe it is now apparent that this is all we were ever going to be able to do.  The virus got here too quickly, and it's too infectious, ever to have eliminated it or stopped transmission.  All we could ever do was attempt to slow down transmission enough so that we didn't compound the deaths by overrunning the hospitals.
I think America needed a REAL lockdown. 

Because the careful reopening is not going to be a return to normal. It's going to be a return to economic activity with a MUCH stricter attention paid to social distancing and remaining safe than we've ever seen. People are going to wear masks. Stores are going to limit number of people inside and enforce distancing. Literally life is going to completely change until this burns out. 

Swedes trust their government institutions. Americans do not.

Therefore, if a bunch of governors, even POTUS, had asked Americans to voluntarily do what the Swedes have done, do you think for a SECOND that we would have complied? Would any of us on this message board be wearing masks when we go out? No, we'd be in COVID-19 hell right now. Heck, in some places we still have problems with masks and social distancing, as seen by all the protests. 

Forcing the lockdowns was a bit of a mental "reset" for this country. I honestly don't think we'd have taken COVID-19 seriously enough without them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 11, 2020, 01:22:30 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 11, 2020, 12:56:39 PM
I think America needed a REAL lockdown.
China's people are unfortunately expendable to the CCP.Are ours?Because Only folks who either have enough supplies or money hoarded AWAY could ride that scenerio out.They were welding buildings shut with infected or otherwise going to be infected people inside.Are you good with that if that's you or yours?And how long do we hole up or is the virus dorment in waiting if not properly disinfected.Too many question marks to answer in the positive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 11, 2020, 01:33:33 PM
On a lighter note,a radio station interviewed a local microbiologist about a vaccine being developed.He seemed optimistic about the work being done at Oxford University moving forward.Evidently they've been working on a MERS vaccine that was tolerated well and triggered the development of antibodies, when this COVID broke out 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 11, 2020, 01:38:13 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 11, 2020, 12:56:39 PM
I think America needed a REAL lockdown.


I disagree,  because I don't think a "REAL" lockdown does anything other than delay the inevitable.

My factories in China have begun decommitting on their promised production.  They're going back into lockdown and despite whatever BS propaganda their government is putting out there, we all know exactly why.

In Korea one night of open clubbing resulted in numerous new cases.

Cases in Singapore are on the rise again.

The best we could have ever hoped, was to keep the hospitals from being overrun.  That's it. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on May 11, 2020, 02:01:26 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 11, 2020, 01:38:13 PM
The best we could have ever hoped, was to keep the hospitals from being overrun.  That's it. 
I feel like everyone saw "flatten the curve" and said it, without understanding what it meant.  It was about minimizing the spike, and not overwhelming hospitals.  And it seems like we mostly did that.  It wasn't going to necessarily reduce total cases, and it was almost certainly going to drag this out farther.  Some people were going to be exposed and be fine; others were going to get it and die, no matter how much care they got.  Flattening the curve was about saving the people who needed medical assistance, but would have come through, as long as there wasn't a scarcity of resources.  I think we've largely done that.

Am I comfortable opening back up?  No.  But that's more due to idiots out at beaches and parks and protests.  If people are going to be responsible, life will be different, but I think certain things need to open up...slowly, because nobody is going to start being more comfortable until we do.  There are certainly rough patches ahead, but it's not like even if we went into total 8 month lockdown, that it would end with a universal re-opening, and everything going back to normal anyway.

It's not like if come July 1 everything was opened back up, I'd be going to a baseball game.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 11, 2020, 02:13:55 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 11, 2020, 01:22:30 PM
China's people are unfortunately expendable to the CCP.Are ours?Because Only folks who either have enough supplies or money hoarded AWAY could ride that scenerio out.They were welding buildings shut with infected or otherwise going to be infected people inside.Are you good with that if that's you or yours?And how long do we hole up or is the virus dorment in waiting if not properly disinfected.Too many question marks to answer in the positive.
Sorry, I realized I was REALLY unclear when I talked about that. I call our lockdown a "REAL" lockdown, or as close to one as Americans would tolerate. I wouldn't support a China-style lockdown, and that wasn't the impression I was trying to get across. But I can see how it would be interpreted that way, and I apologize for being unclear. 

The bulk of my point was that Americans would never have dutifully taken a "voluntary" stay at home suggestion the way the Swedes have done. We would have completely disregarded it and gone about our lives until this thing exploded in our faces. 

The reason we needed the stay at home orders instead of suggestions was to smack Americans upside the head and get them to pay attention. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 11, 2020, 03:21:38 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 11, 2020, 02:13:55 PM
Sorry, I realized I was REALLY unclear when I talked about that. I call our lockdown a "REAL" lockdown, or as close to one as Americans would tolerate. I wouldn't support a China-style lockdown, and that wasn't the impression I was trying to get across. But I can see how it would be interpreted that way, and I apologize for being unclear.

The bulk of my point was that Americans would never have dutifully taken a "voluntary" stay at home suggestion the way the Swedes have done. We would have completely disregarded it and gone about our lives until this thing exploded in our faces.

The reason we needed the stay at home orders instead of suggestions was to smack Americans upside the head and get them to pay attention.
Its my impression that the bulk of America did it voluntarily even if ordered

You cant shut down an economy the size of the US unless it was voluntary
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 03:27:29 PM
I doubt anyone has been arrested LEGALLY for being outside their home.  I don't see how that would be LEGAL.  

We've always been able to go to Kroger of course, and I think everyone else has as well.  Who has been pulled over for driving somewhere?  What law was violated?

Who has been arrested in general for walking outside?  A handful of cases that won't be prosecuted?


This is mostly voluntary.  Businesses that are licensed like restaurants and barbershops can be closed.

The construction projects near us are beehives of activity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 11, 2020, 03:57:32 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 11, 2020, 03:21:38 PM
Its my impression that the bulk of America did it voluntarily even if ordered

You cant shut down an economy the size of the US unless it was voluntary
That was always the plan. No cop wanted to be arresting or even citing people for stay at home violations. 

The goal was behavior modification, not enforcement. 

I'm just saying that "order" has more force to it. Even if you realized that enforcement was basically impossible because there were so many loopholes in the stay at home order, and that nobody was going to be pulling cars over demanding to know whether they were engaged in "essential" business. 

If the Bay Area counties that kicked this all off with their actual stay at home order had just made it a voluntary suggestion, SOME people would have followed it, but IMHO not nearly enough. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2020, 04:07:14 PM
There were a lot of moving parts on this thing early on. We even had people like the NY Governor and Mayor saying to keep going on with life. It was downplayed by the White House too. It was downplayed in San Fran. Downplayed everywhere. We were told masks wouldn't help. 

I think knowing better back then about what this was would have "scared" people into social distancing - no order needed. It's certainly doing that now. Almost everyone is wearing masks and respecting space. It's no different here than in Illinois, from that standpoint. 

Except things are starting to open up here.

Wisconsin is starting to open up. The only problem with that is I have to drive through Illinois to get to Wisconsin.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 11, 2020, 04:09:18 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 11, 2020, 03:57:32 PM
That was always the plan. No cop wanted to be arresting or even citing people for stay at home violations.

The goal was behavior modification, not enforcement.

I'm just saying that "order" has more force to it. Even if you realized that enforcement was basically impossible because there were so many loopholes in the stay at home order, and that nobody was going to be pulling cars over demanding to know whether they were engaged in "essential" business.

If the Bay Area counties that kicked this all off with their actual stay at home order had just made it a voluntary suggestion, SOME people would have followed it, but IMHO not nearly enough.
when the government makes a bad order which California in large part is doing Americans will object to it

California is too slow in reopening

Its almost as if California doesnt want the shut down to end
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 11, 2020, 04:10:58 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 11, 2020, 04:09:18 PM
when the government makes a bad order which California in large part is doing Americans will object to it

California is too slow in reopening

Its almost as if California doesnt want the shut down to end
politics, unfortunately
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2020, 04:20:11 PM
Phase 5: Illinois restored


Testing, tracing and treatment are widely available throughout the state. Either a vaccine or treatment options are readily available that ensures health care capacity is no longer a concern, or there are no new cases over a sustained period.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 04:28:34 PM
No new cases over a sustained period ....  um ....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 11, 2020, 04:43:45 PM
That's Phase 5 which might as well read, "Probably Never"

But ok
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2020, 04:44:17 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 04:28:34 PM
No new cases over a sustained period ....  um ....
I'm proposing to just fill Illinois up with a glacier. Same difference.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 04:47:17 PM
Does anyone believe this is "going away" totally?  Or is it more a "new reality" to which we will have to adjust?

One key is the immunity question.  That could be THE key.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 11, 2020, 04:50:49 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 04:47:17 PM
Does anyone believe this is "going away" totally?  Or is it more a "new reality" to which we will have to adjust?

One key is the immunity question.  That could be THE key.
That's definitely THE key.

I'm also not sure what people mean when they talk about the "new normal."  What does that even mean?

I suspect the new normal will look pretty much identical to the old normal.  It'll take many months to get there, but I don't anticipate any permanent changes to behavior, not in this country anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2020, 04:51:19 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 04:47:17 PM
Does anyone believe this is "going away" totally?  Or is it more a "new reality" to which we will have to adjust?

One key is the immunity question.  That could be THE key.
I do not. We will adjust - we have to - until there is a proven vaccine. That could be near, or never.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 05:02:58 PM
I was chatting with the wife about hotels/motels/travel during our walk today.    I think this will be SLOW to come back, very slow.  This city relies heavily on conventions, with the money that brings to the hospitality industry here now mostly shuttered.  When might a large convention happen again?  Maybe it all goes virtual.  When will many folks feel comfortable flying somewhere for pleasure?  When does air traffic return to 75%?

We used to like to  take a 2-3 day trip up into the mountains, or stay a week at Hilton Head, all that is on hold obv.

This looks like a long term evolution to me, to some kind of changed existence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 11, 2020, 07:05:22 PM
it appears about 1/3rd of covid deaths in the US are from nursing home facilities

do other countries have similar facilities and are the numbers similar?

I would assume other cultures handle their aging populations differently
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 11, 2020, 07:42:53 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 11, 2020, 07:05:22 PM
it appears about 1/3rd of covid deaths in the US are from nursing home facilities

do other countries have similar facilities and are the numbers similar?

I would assume other cultures handle their aging populations differently
I think weve learned a lot about what actions need to be taken when something like this strikes

locking down nursing homes are on top of the list
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 11, 2020, 07:44:38 PM
seems to me it was a no brainer after the first week of March
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 11, 2020, 08:01:21 PM
Pennsylvania has corrected its coronavirus data multiple times over the past week to account for irregularities, according to new reports.

Earlier this week, Pennsylvania started to include “probable deaths” in its fatalities. As a result, the total number of coronavirus deaths grew by 276, then 360, in successive nights, almost doubling the number of deaths in the state in two days. The Pennsylvania Department of Health (DOH) subsequently removed 200 deaths from its count after facing mounting questions about the accuracy of the count.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/pa-removes-200-deaths-from-state-coronavirus-count-as-questions-mount-about-reporting-process-accuracy/ar-BB13a4XF?ocid=sf (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/pa-removes-200-deaths-from-state-coronavirus-count-as-questions-mount-about-reporting-process-accuracy/ar-BB13a4XF?ocid=sf)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on May 12, 2020, 12:27:36 AM
We are getting worn out by CVD-19, but MLB has come out with a more specific re-opening proposal that has not quite been fully configured. For those who think athletes are generally dumber than the population as a whole, educate yourself, and read this article. A Washington Nationals relief pitcher, Sean Doolittle, has developed questions about the reopening plan that are fair.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/mlb-owners-approved-a-plan-to-get-baseball-underway-but-a-lot-of-hard-questions-remain/ar-BB13VTxz?ocid=spartandhp (https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/mlb-owners-approved-a-plan-to-get-baseball-underway-but-a-lot-of-hard-questions-remain/ar-BB13VTxz?ocid=spartandhp)

Baseball players and owners will gain the most by starting the season, but Doolittle's thoughtful questions think broadly about many stakeholders, including the impact on so many service providers we don't always think about, such as bus drivers, people on airliners, and the like. And, how will you modify locker rooms? I would guess, the locker rooms at old parks like Wrigley Field and Fenway Park would be problematic, but then I haven't been in MLB locker rooms. There was enough $ in the league to dig subterranean spaces to space things out if it is life or death. Might not be a bad idea. Managers are more like many of our ages, not to mention owners, who probably trend even older.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on May 12, 2020, 01:01:46 AM
Last week the Chinese restaurant across the street from my law office, owned by my neighbors, re-opened after being closed 7-weeks. It is carry-out only, even though dine-in is allowed in our county. Almost no one is open to dine-in here, and the few that are - I do not have the confidence yet to go there, even for carry-out.

There has been a line outside the Chinese restaurant every day since reopening, many times to the end of the block, with most people 6 feet apart. You have to call in advance. The servers wear facemasks. It gives me confidence though I haven't worn a mask to pick up my food given the extremely brief contact - hand my credit card, or cash - keep the change, step back, wait, sign, tip, receive my food, and leave. We are allowed just 3' inside the door, but not into the dining area, to receive food.

I was concerned when they closed so long. This is a town of 5,000. The community support is emotionally uplifting, in times when we see other things in the news. People with food afflictions actually separate their political thought, from delicious food. . Food responsiveness overrides political stupidity.

Could Chinese food in America save our planet?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 12, 2020, 02:14:33 AM
I went looking for food the other night.  I see a drive-thru line stretch across 3 major stores in a mini-mall.  Absurd...over 50 cars I bet.  For Raising Cane's.  

My brain couldn't wrap around it.  I don't even remember what I wound up getting, but it is certainly a bizarre time.  People are waiting in 50+ car lines for chicken fingers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on May 12, 2020, 02:15:44 AM
Welp, we just booked a beach house in NC for next week.  Is it the right thing to?  Hell, Idk.  We went back and forth and figured this was as good a time as any.  I don’t know what the Covid situation is going to be this summer but the price of beach houses skyrockets after Memorial Day and when you check their calendars they are still almost 100% booked June-August.  The kids are done with school and I don’t have to worry about work.  

So, we head out Saturday for a week and we’ll social distance from there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 12, 2020, 07:51:59 AM
You can drive that straight through, yes? Not that hotels are bad. We used Hamptons on the way down here because Hilton has a good plan in place for cleaning and distancing. We were never uncomfortable on the way down here.

We'll see going back in a few weeks what things look like now. Changes are happening all over the place, except in Illinois, I guess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 07:54:09 AM
This is about when "new" cases in GA due to the new policy might start showing up.  Day before yesterday was a spike and yesterday was down, the 7 day and 10 day averages are both right at 650.

MOST stuff remains closed, and anything open is operating under changed policies, and not many people are out anyway.

I don't expect to see anything.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 07:55:43 AM
Oh, and you can "distance" one place as easily as another, at times better, if the house or motel are clean.

I THINK the fear about picking this up from skin contact is over blown.  They may detect virus RNA from surfaces that is degraded and not viable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 12, 2020, 07:58:35 AM
So, you think it's an airborne transmission? Or what?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 08:04:25 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 12, 2020, 07:58:35 AM
So, you think it's an airborne transmission? Or what?
I THINK most cases are airborne or direct personal contact.  You shake hands with an infected person and then rub your nose or eye, or you catch a sneeze cloud.

Those reports about the virus living on hard surfaces for weeks are somewhat misleading.  I DO NOT KNOW THIS for a fact, but detecting RNA fragments two weeks later is not the same as detecting viable virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 12, 2020, 08:19:51 AM
So, the biggest problem here is the unknown. This might also be a problem for a long time. 

Or forever?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on May 12, 2020, 08:23:08 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 12, 2020, 07:51:59 AM
You can drive that straight through, yes? Not that hotels are bad. We used Hamptons on the way down here because Hilton has a good plan in place for cleaning and distancing. We were never uncomfortable on the way down here.

We'll see going back in a few weeks what things look like now. Changes are happening all over the place, except in Illinois, I guess.
Oh yeah. Little over 7 hours. Might stop for gas or run through a drive thru but that’s it.  Other than a couple trips to the grocery store or getting takeout I don’t plan on coming within a country mile of anyone down there.  I’ll mask up when I go out like I do here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 12, 2020, 08:34:59 AM
Hopefully the beach will be nice and sunny, because apparently the sun works on this thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 08:46:03 AM
While sunlight deactivates this thing, it's not instantaneous.  If you catch a sneeze cloud, it's a problem even outdoors, I think.

Just keep a distance from others, it's not hard to manage.  

I wear my mask on the elevator if anyone else is on it aside from the wife as a courtesy to them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 12, 2020, 09:01:53 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 08:46:03 AM
Just keep a distance from others, it's not hard to manage. 
People will naturally steer clear of him
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 09:03:19 AM
I'm still looking for reliable information on immunity development.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 12, 2020, 09:08:16 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 09:03:19 AM
I'm still looking for reliable information on immunity development.
I don't think they know, it's just too early to tell.  

I do believe that the people in Korea (or was it Hong Kong?) that they originally thought might have been reinfected, turned out to be a result of testing errors or that the virus itself just lingered in them longer, or some combination of the two.  So that's good, or at least better than the alternative.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 10:42:18 AM
Sweden reports 3,256 deaths and 10x that figure known infections. Georgia reports 1,460 deaths and 34,165 known cases.

10.2 million population in Sweden, 10.6 million in GA.  About the same number of confirmed cases, 2x difference in deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 12, 2020, 10:44:31 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 10:42:18 AM
Sweden reports 3,256 deaths and 10x that figure known infections. Georgia reports 1,460 deaths and 34,165 known cases.

10.2 million population in Sweden, 10.6 million in GA.  About the same number of confirmed cases, 2x difference in deaths.
Any demographics to go along? Prior conditions?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 12, 2020, 10:46:16 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 10:42:18 AM
Sweden reports 3,256 deaths and 10x that figure known infections. Georgia reports 1,460 deaths and 34,165 known cases.

10.2 million population in Sweden, 10.6 million in GA.  About the same number of confirmed cases, 2x difference in deaths.
Do you know deaths per capita or per million data for each?

Cases are pretty much irrelevant IMO.  Sweden might actually have 2x the number of actual cases compared to Georgia, and neither region has tested enough to near the upper limit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 10:50:34 AM
GA has 138 deaths per million.  Sweden is roughly double that obviously, 322 exactly.

They may have different metrics for counting deaths.  Georgia has a large African American population which is said to be more vulnerable.  There is an outbreak in the poultry area in NE GA.  We could see chicken shortages soonish.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 12, 2020, 11:36:42 AM
Sweden *should* be doing better than Georgia. It's a relatively rich nation, with a good healthcare system and a strong social safety net. Supposedly 40% of residents are in single-person households which should reduce spread, and relatively low numbers of multi-generation households with elders. And I can say from having traveled there that people in general looked a little more healthy in general than in Georgia -- much lower levels of obesity, anyway.

Maybe the lack of multigenerational households caused a problem? I.e. if most seniors are in senior living facilities where spread was easy, it could be that they got slammed there whereas more of the elderly in Georgia are in homes where people have been staying home and avoiding infection?

I don't understand why death rates are so high in Sweden...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 12, 2020, 11:43:56 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 12, 2020, 11:36:42 AM
Sweden *should* be doing better than Georgia. It's a relatively rich nation, with a good healthcare system and a strong social safety net. Supposedly 40% of residents are in single-person households which should reduce spread, and relatively low numbers of multi-generation households with elders. And I can say from having traveled there that people in general looked a little more healthy in general than in Georgia -- much lower levels of obesity, anyway.

Maybe the lack of multigenerational households caused a problem? I.e. if most seniors are in senior living facilities where spread was easy, it could be that they got slammed there whereas more of the elderly in Georgia are in homes where people have been staying home and avoiding infection?

I don't understand why death rates are so high in Sweden...

It could simply be that Sweden is taking fewer steps to stop the virus from spreading, and so it's already doing what damage it will.

It's even possible that they have something like 10x the number of actual cases compared to Georgia, and that their true death rate is actually lower than Georgia's.  That was their intended path, after all.

It's possible that the lockdowns in Georgia and around the USA, and in other countries, have only served to delay the inevitable deaths, but have not done anything to knock down the ultimate total number (aside from the positive benefits of not overrunning the hospitals and creating further deaths that otherwise wouldn't have occurred).

At this point we just don't know, and we're really not likely to make any valid comparisons for another 12-18 months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 11:47:08 AM
Georgia has several things working against it - higher black population which is said to be more vulnerable, higher obesity/diabetes, no universal health care of course, probably insufficient testing, an early hot spot down in Albany ....

And the death rate is less than half that of Sweden.  Reported death rate.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 12, 2020, 11:49:46 AM
perhaps Sweden's health care system pays hospitals and doctors more if the death is reported as COVID-19?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 12, 2020, 11:50:26 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 11:47:08 AM
Georgia has several things working against it - higher black population which is said to be more vulnerable, higher obesity/diabetes, no universal health care of course, probably insufficient testing, an early hot spot down in Albany ....

And the death rate is less than half that of Sweden.  Reported death rate.





Exactly.  Reported death rate.

But it's possible that Sweden has far more actual cases than Georgia, and we just don't know because there's not enough testing in either place to really approach discovering that upper bound.

Sweden might have more deaths simply because they've allowed more infections in a shorter amount of time, they've allowed it intentionally to penetrate deeper into their population more quickly, while Georgia was locking down to prevent the spread.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 12, 2020, 11:52:16 AM
There's also been the theory that the European strain that seems to have hit New York is more deadly, and perhaps Georgia didn't get that strain?  Not sure how much evidence there really is behind all of that, though.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 12, 2020, 11:56:32 AM
Perhaps Sweden's national health care system wasn't as well equipped to prevent deaths?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 12, 2020, 12:03:16 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 12, 2020, 11:52:16 AM
There's also been the theory that the European strain that seems to have hit New York is more deadly, and perhaps Georgia didn't get that strain?  Not sure how much evidence there really is behind all of that, though.


It would have come as huge news if New York has a different strain then Georgia

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 12, 2020, 12:14:32 PM
From The Dispatch:


Quote
COVID-19: Not Just For Your Lungs Anymore
By now, most of us have the slogan drilled into our brains that the novel coronavirus is not a flu, but rather something far stranger and deadlier. But we still mainly think of the germ as flu-adjacent—a respiratory bug accompanied by fever and coughing, which kills, when it kills, by clogging the lungs with fluid and suffocating its victims of oxygen.
A growing number of doctors are becoming convinced it’s not so simple. Instead, they’re seeing patients whose COVID-created pneumonia is brought under control—only for a slew of other systems in the body to begin to go haywire. “What this virus does is it starts as a viral infection and becomes a more global disturbance to the immune system and blood vessels—and what kills is exactly that,” Dr. Mandeep Mehra of Harvard University’s medical school recently told the (http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkM2uhCAMhZ9m2GlAZUYXLO7mvobhpyK5CIbWMb79xZmkC9r09HA-qwl8LpfaMxI7EMocnBq6qX-JF6svJ0Y5soDzUgA2HaKicgDbDxOD1RRyugWdlGJiq3KLMxb6pxZ8eQ6TNk_Jbb_0chzlInnPbptZHy5AsqByitfnMItqJdrx0f88ut9a53m2CJooAoUNsLV5q-P0cWzOXKKrrcuWcsHmD2BvXECb31BC8k2Cszn1hY3NJSf9DuXApl7T9g8bk91VxSyojnecS9EJwfkgWtF6PYV9MKtPj4FvvmvxMHirbn9WVNHJtaYE77EuoLE-ZqNjm4BuJHPd2o4U6JohaRPBfWnRF-8nPF07qPo_rMkIynd4M68EJWfV0OXKOaktl1Sz1Fi7Jrv-A0lblgA)Seattle Times (http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkM2uhCAMhZ9m2GlAZUYXLO7mvobhpyK5CIbWMb79xZmkC9r09HA-qwl8LpfaMxI7EMocnBq6qX-JF6svJ0Y5soDzUgA2HaKicgDbDxOD1RRyugWdlGJiq3KLMxb6pxZ8eQ6TNk_Jbb_0chzlInnPbptZHy5AsqByitfnMItqJdrx0f88ut9a53m2CJooAoUNsLV5q-P0cWzOXKKrrcuWcsHmD2BvXECb31BC8k2Cszn1hY3NJSf9DuXApl7T9g8bk91VxSyojnecS9EJwfkgWtF6PYV9MKtPj4FvvmvxMHirbn9WVNHJtaYE77EuoLE-ZqNjm4BuJHPd2o4U6JohaRPBfWnRF-8nPF07qPo_rMkIynd4M68EJWfV0OXKOaktl1Sz1Fi7Jrv-A0lblgA). “Our hypothesis is that COVID-19 begins as a respiratory virus and kills as a cardiovascular virus.”

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 12:20:53 PM
Cytokine explosion.

Georgia is at 633 at the moment, I don't know when the close the day for new cases.  That would be about on the moving averages (653).

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/12/854671686/as-georgia-lifts-restrictions-its-hospitals-are-not-ready-for-a-covid-19-surge (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/12/854671686/as-georgia-lifts-restrictions-its-hospitals-are-not-ready-for-a-covid-19-surge)

Georgia as a whole is seeing a slight decrease in its average new daily coronavirus cases since late April — from 741 in the week ending April 26 to 702 in the week ending May 10. But in the 21 counties that make up the Atlanta metropolitan statistical area — which has the bulk of the state's coronavirus cases — the average of new daily cases has gone up in that same time frame. And ICU beds in the region are already mostly full.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 12, 2020, 08:11:13 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 12, 2020, 11:36:42 AM
Sweden *should* be doing better than Georgia. It's a relatively rich nation, with a good healthcare system and a strong social safety net. Supposedly 40% of residents are in single-person households which should reduce spread, and relatively low numbers of multi-generation households with elders. And I can say from having traveled there that people in general looked a little more healthy in general than in Georgia -- much lower levels of obesity, anyway.

Maybe the lack of multigenerational households caused a problem? I.e. if most seniors are in senior living facilities where spread was easy, it could be that they got slammed there whereas more of the elderly in Georgia are in homes where people have been staying home and avoiding infection?

I don't understand why death rates are so high in Sweden...
I had a theory it had something to do with smoking, because it is more common in Europe.  11% of Swedish people smoke.  Bingo, right?

Nope.  More than 17% of adults in Georgia smoke.  That's adults vs. total population, so not exactly apples to apples, but I guess my theory doesn't hold up.

17.5% of adults smoke in Georgia, though.  Really? 

WTH?  18.8% of Pennsylvania adults smoke?

Those numbers seem crazy high.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 08:15:08 PM
 France smoking rate for 2016 was 32.70%, a 0.1% decline from 2015.

This is another thing I notice different about France than the US.  Everyone (it seems) smokes.

However, this likely does not impact infection rate, some studies suggest it might reduce infection rate, but it probably does relate to outcome.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 12, 2020, 08:16:05 PM
hopefully those percentages are coming down quickly, year after year
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 12, 2020, 09:14:03 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 12, 2020, 08:16:05 PM
hopefully those percentages are coming down quickly, year after year
Yeah, the oldest ones are dying off.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 12, 2020, 09:18:43 PM
hopefully, they're not being replaced by younger ones
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 13, 2020, 07:37:11 AM
The young ones vape.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 13, 2020, 07:56:34 AM
Illinois did 29,266 tests yesterday, and reported 4,014 new cases. Both are highs in this thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 13, 2020, 08:16:01 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 13, 2020, 07:56:34 AM
Illinois did 29,266 tests yesterday, and reported 4,014 new cases. Both are highs in this thing.
Chicago is where most virus cases are

the rest of the state is relatively ok

I hope they have locked down all the retirement homes

need to ramp up testing in Chicago area 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 13, 2020, 08:24:10 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 12, 2020, 08:16:05 PM
hopefully those percentages are coming down quickly, year after year
Here is the smoker data


https://www.lung.org/research/trends-in-lung-disease/tobacco-trends-brief/overall-tobacco-trends (https://www.lung.org/research/trends-in-lung-disease/tobacco-trends-brief/overall-tobacco-trends)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 08:58:31 AM
My understanding in France is that young women smoke as a method of weight control.  They are skinny.  And it's amazing to see so many young females smoking.

As soon as they sit in a bistro, they light up (outside).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 13, 2020, 09:35:59 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 13, 2020, 08:16:01 AM
Chicago is where most virus cases are

the rest of the state is relatively ok

I hope they have locked down all the retirement homes

need to ramp up testing in Chicago area


I just read a report that confirms this. Many outside of Chicago are in nursing homes. Tragic still, of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 09:37:46 AM
Most of the cases in GA are in the ATL metro area, but that also is where 60% of the population resides.

Duh.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 13, 2020, 09:41:10 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 09:37:46 AM
Most of the cases in GA are in the ATL metro area, but that also is where 60% of the population resides.

Duh.


still there is no reason that 40% should be on total lock down which of course has been pointed out many times
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 09:43:37 AM
The hot spots per capita were in Albany in SW Georgia, and now apparently near Gainesville (poultry plants).

And the state of course is not locked down in any real sense, or not completely.  A lot of stuff remains closed.

Apparently every one of the "top rated restaurants" are closed for inside dining.

https://www.atlantamagazine.com/dining-news/atlantas-50-best-restaurants-takeout-edition/?fbclid=IwAR13tynrDmNsGuX3f8tkmsbLgU6wFHH42mnGQX2ExPnVjxz52WbAOBF8xmQ (https://www.atlantamagazine.com/dining-news/atlantas-50-best-restaurants-takeout-edition/?fbclid=IwAR13tynrDmNsGuX3f8tkmsbLgU6wFHH42mnGQX2ExPnVjxz52WbAOBF8xmQ)

WE've only been to five of those 50, bummer.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 13, 2020, 12:44:03 PM
More good news out of Abbott Labs today. Antibody testing will soon be very plentiful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 13, 2020, 01:51:59 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 13, 2020, 12:44:03 PM
More good news out of Abbott Labs today. Antibody testing will soon be very plentiful.
That would be great.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 13, 2020, 02:13:12 PM
Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds on Wednesday announced the re-opening of some businesses in Woodbury County and 21 others where the new coronavirus has been more active.

Reynolds’ latest order in her phased-in approach of re-opening Iowa businesses matches the relaxed restrictions in those 22 counties to the previously relaxed restrictions in the state’s other 77 counties.

Other populous counties including Polk, Black Hawk, Scott, Linn and Johnson are also among those that will now have loosened restrictions.

In other words, starting Friday statewide, restaurants, fitness center, libraries, salons and barber shops, tanning facilities, and tattoo parlors may open.

Those businesses, however, must operate at 50 percent of their capacity and incorporate social distancing measures to ensure the safety of workers and customers.


Bars, casinos, movie theaters, amusement parks, swimming pools, and playgrounds remain closed at least through May 27.

Reynolds made the announcement on a day when the number of deaths in Iowa related to COVID-19 continued to climb. The state public health department on Wednesday confirmed 17 new COVID-related deaths, making this the deadliest seven-day stretch since the virus first was confirmed in Iowa in early March.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 13, 2020, 02:13:42 PM
I can get a haircut and sit in a bar!!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 02:21:03 PM
The fact that businesses MAY open is not the same as businesses actually opening.  Some will, no doubt, but around me, 90% remains closed (take out only).

No art museum, no botanical garden, hotels are closed, office buildings are dormant, traffic is light, no theater, no symphony ....

You CAN open, but they are NOT open.  There are no PEOPLE, no visitors, nothing to bring people in from the 'burbs, very little traffic ....

I know of two restaurants open for dining, and neither have more than a handful of customers, one had zero on Mother's Day.  The other 50 odd remain take out only or closed.  And three are shuttered permanently.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 13, 2020, 03:36:49 PM
My haircut is scheduled for 5pm Monday

I'm sure I can find at least one bar that will open!

I'm resourceful that way!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 13, 2020, 05:57:10 PM
DC and surrounding counties extended their shutdown into June....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 06:16:18 PM
I don't think there is a huge difference between being shut down and being open in reality.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 13, 2020, 06:39:48 PM
From The Dispatch:

Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2626%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F293e3254-c0a1-415c-9cc9-2cc9ac99a26b_1313x443.png&t=1589401536&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1c8e-20011c011600&sig=.KXQlRi82aJOUmSm8vkRjQ--~C) (http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUduOpSAQ_JrDmwa5iD7wcDLJ_oZpoPWQUXAAd-bM1y_q0yakqXSK6qbKQsElprfeYy7kyJgm77RgI1edIhW5bpAD8XmaE-IGftUlHUj2w6zeQvExnA-YlN1IXnqmBuRIZyUU77jph5mKvkJl555x7sg5ZoLDeQwWdQzr-xImq36VsucHfz7Yn3qsC20-TC5gP1sbt9ryGyxY7xmLfZ2UafWbLw_2MVfFEiv4ugF_LjG6Srk1mTxV5albiznsJxbE1CCVxthBNAaAN4IrbEbZDQ04w5lBpcZBtJm3sMFvDPCd70Wqxv37C15b5QtW05AzKRpLoWtEJ20zWjs2rBaw4wisN1NXffkRgrd7WIjXjDJKZW1S3lPWdq1As9OsXr39-xB0W9h_NpCkEwTXmuSXJVdCNnZZo4G1DVjOVKbK2o7gy3vCAGZFdwdW7oQv_8t7Rx3wO69YCqa7ecYuBVOC1IEu1qiD3mIKPizO5x2q6f8A0da16w)
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2412%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F7ef1b254-7782-44d3-a728-4288807afb5c_1206x749.png&t=1589401536&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1c8e-20011c011600&sig=h7oGJTiGYu5b5yk46RXTtg--~C) (http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUcuO3CAQ_JrhZounwQcfVpHyG1YDbQ9aGxzA2Z39-uDxKRKCUquo7q5yUHFN-TUdqVRyFsxz8JPko9BMk4Y8M8qQUOYlI-4QtqnmE8lx2i04qCHF6wNXio3kOXHgCrW2HhVz1FPFloUiHf0wGhiWgVxtZjh9wOhwSnF7vYXJNj1rPcpDfDz473acj305bangPnuX9lYKO6zY3gWre16UeQt7qA_-a2mKNTXw5wbiY03JN8qtydWlqi7ddtnTfWJFzB1SZa0zsrMAopNCYzcqZjrwVnDb1hiN7IvoYYefFOGr3IM0jXv7N3xPVd5Q48IsV7LT2vBOSi860Nx0khtjqIbFKjczTodvLcf-iCsJE6ecNpcEo2KgvGe9RHvQop-D-_uQdF_5fzaQPGWIvrc5rGtphGLduiULWx-xXqnMjbWfMdTXjBHshv4OrN4Jv_2vrwOniF9lw1ox38UrdiW5lqQ19KlFHac95Rji6kM5oJn-D9Gztjc)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2020, 07:43:48 AM
Wisconsin's Supreme Court struck down the Governor's "safer at home" order as non-constitutional. Wisconsin is open. We'll see what that leads to now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 14, 2020, 08:59:43 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2020, 07:43:48 AM
Wisconsin's Supreme Court struck down the Governor's "safer at home" order as non-constitutional. Wisconsin is open. We'll see what that leads to now.
Wow, that seems pretty big.  I've seen quite a few fights between municipalities, counties, and states, arguing over whose authority supersedes.  But I'm not sure I've seen any state's judicial branch make such a bold statement before during this crisis, has anyone else?

Interesting times.

I'm definitely starting to see a lot more questions out there in public, and I'm not talking twitter but on local and state news, saying basically the same thing-- "When did 'flatten the curve' become 'find the cure'?"

All in all though, like CD is seeing in Atlanta and I'm seeing in Austin, even though places are allowed to reopen, most of them are not.  The 25% capacity limitation kills it for most restaurants, and even if they were allowed to open to 100%, there's just not enough people willing to go there, to sustain their businesses.  It will take people a while before the fear is gone, or at least diminished.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 09:03:53 AM
https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/)

This far in GA, there has been no marked upsurge in cases or deaths.  There remain two hot spots.  It seems to me if you can localize a hot spot, it could make sense to shutter that region for a while to the extent possible.  I imagine people are doing this on their own often as not.

Some of course had predicted a crisis in GA by now, over run hospitals, that sort of thing.  I keep noting this is not like flipping a switch.  It's not binary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 14, 2020, 09:18:28 AM
Its just gonna take time

If you open it they will come

NASCAR is racing this Saturday without fans of course

PGA tour restarts June 11 in Texas without spectators



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2020, 09:40:13 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 09:03:53 AM
https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/)

This far in GA, there has been no marked upsurge in cases or deaths.  There remain two hot spots.  It seems to me if you can localize a hot spot, it could make sense to shutter that region for a while to the extent possible.  I imagine people are doing this on their own often as not.

Some of course had predicted a crisis in GA by now, over run hospitals, that sort of thing.  I keep noting this is not like flipping a switch.  It's not binary.
I'll be curious to see what things look like in 2 weeks, both here and in GA.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 14, 2020, 09:42:04 AM
What the media wont report

https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/texas-elderly-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-treatment-texas-city/287-7383185c-940c-4cb2-82ea-c4a5ffad3ffb (https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/texas-elderly-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-treatment-texas-city/287-7383185c-940c-4cb2-82ea-c4a5ffad3ffb)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 09:47:06 AM
I always wonder when someone cites a media report as something the media won't report.

I'd note that report is anecdotal, a month old, and several more recent credible studies have shown either no benefit or adverse impacts by use of this drug, so I personally wouldn't put much credibility on that one specific story nor expect it to be reported widely today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 14, 2020, 10:10:51 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 09:47:06 AM
I always wonder when someone cites a media report as something the media won't report.

I'd note that report is anecdotal, a month old, and several more recent credible studies have shown either no benefit or adverse impacts by use of this drug, so I personally wouldn't put much credibility on that one specific story nor expect it to be reported widely today.
Point is the main stream media was as quiet as a little church mouse on this

We are successfully treating virus patients in Texas with this drug

which is one of the factors our per 1M death count is so low

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 14, 2020, 10:28:55 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 14, 2020, 10:10:51 AM
Point is the main stream media was as quiet as a little church mouse on this

We are successfully treating virus patients in Texas with this drug

which is one of the factors our per 1M death count is so low
Mainstream media? That's a report from Channel 8 -- ABC. You don't get much more mainstream than ABC, right? 

There are tons of reports on hydroxychloroquine. They're mostly mixed. Some have shown benefit, some have not. Some have also shown nasty side effects (heart problems). 

Also note that we know very little based on this report:


This is a flimsy anecdotal report. Yes if you had 39 who didn't die, that's better than nothing, but without a hell of a lot more information, I wouldn't hang your 10-gallon hat on this news.

--------------------

But... IF hydroxychloroquine truly is a miracle treatment, do you really think the "mainstream media" would keep it a secret? Why? 

I realize some think they'd do it to damage POTUS, but can you imagine the public outcry that would occur if it was ever proven that the "mainstream media" (which apparently doesn't include ABC) was squashing stories leading to the unnecessary deaths of thousands of Americans?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 14, 2020, 10:37:19 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 14, 2020, 10:28:55 AM


--------------------

But... IF hydroxychloroquine truly is a miracle treatment, do you really think the "mainstream media" would keep it a secret? Why?

I realize some think they'd do it to damage POTUS, but can you imagine the public outcry that would occur if it was ever proven that the "mainstream media" (which apparently doesn't include ABC) was squashing stories leading to the unnecessary deaths of thousands of Americans?

where have you been?

all you get from main stream media is gloom and doom

as to why well its pretty obvious to me that the media want this country to stay closed down

as long as possible to damage POTUS

Our weekly death count has decreased for the last 3 weeks in a row but you wont see that talked about anywhere

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 10:38:50 AM
The more recent data on efficacy of this drug are not promising at all.  The FDA has issued a strong caution on its use.  There were more promising ANECDOTAL reports a month ago or so, but those have been replaced more recently by negative outcomes, all of which have been reported.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on May 14, 2020, 10:47:22 AM
I think by mainstream he means nationally viewed news shows or an article in a widely circulated newspaper.

Yes, all of the evidence that HCQ can help Covid patients is anecdotal. On the other hand, the studies that show it isn’t much help are observational studies. They aren’t randomized and controlled which is the gold standard of clinical trials.

As long as patients are made aware of all of this before being prescribed it I don’t see the fuss.   It’s been around forever.  Doctors know the side effects associated with it and what medications to avoid being taken with it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 14, 2020, 10:53:56 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 14, 2020, 10:10:51 AM
Point is the main stream media was as quiet as a little church mouse on this

We are successfully treating virus patients in Texas with this drug

which is one of the factors our per 1M death count is so low


Looking back, the thing got a modest amount of coverage. NPR, FoxNews several other local TV stations. There were some reports he didn't tell the families what he was doing, which sparked some concern. But weirdly, very few reports in the past two weeks. Just because we don't see something doesn't mean it didn't make the rounds.

That second sentence, it's just not accurate. We have one nursing home and some anecdotal evidence they seem to be doing better from two weeks ago.

And linking this to the low death count is ... well it's a stretch. 

Badge lamented fear mongering up high. This would be hope mongering. Taking something very small and acting like it's very large. A politician did some hope mongering and got some attention. It's all cool and stuff, but it ain't evidence of much. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 14, 2020, 10:55:00 AM
Quote from: Kris60 on May 14, 2020, 10:47:22 AM
I think by mainstream he means nationally viewed news shows or an article in a widely circulated newspaper.

Yes, all of the evidence that HCQ can help Covid patients is anecdotal. On the other hand, the studies that show it isn’t much help are observational studies. They aren’t randomized and controlled which is the gold standard of clinical trials.

As long as patients are made aware of all of this before being prescribed it I don’t see the fuss.  It’s been around forever.  Doctors know the side effects associated with it and what medications to avoid being taken with it.


It was on NPR and Fox News. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 14, 2020, 10:58:14 AM
It was given to 39 nursing home patients with the virus and not one of them died

what is vague about that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 14, 2020, 10:59:26 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 14, 2020, 10:55:00 AM
It was on NPR and Fox News.
It was on to report the drug was being given but the results were not reported
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 14, 2020, 11:03:46 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 14, 2020, 10:55:00 AM
It was on NPR and Fox News.
First of all nobody watches or listens to NPR

Second yep Fox News has a different agenda
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 11:09:56 AM
I don't think the media are trying to keep something a secret here.  The news about this has been presented and passed by more recent information.

You might notice that Trump and Fox News stopped talking about it.  There's your sign.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on May 14, 2020, 11:14:13 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 14, 2020, 10:55:00 AM
It was on NPR and Fox News.
Then he was wrong. It was reported.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 14, 2020, 11:26:05 AM
NPR is a medium for sure.  I don't think it meets his later addition of "mainstream media" though.  Not many people listen to NPR.

A lot of people watch Fox News, so I consider it mainstream.   But half the people in the country refuse to watch it, so unless it's reported by CNN or the national ABC/NBC/CBS news programs (not local affiliates), then I can still understand his point that at least half the country never saw it.

Still, it does appear to be somewhat old and many reports have come out since, that have not shown it to be promising.  Take from that what you will.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 14, 2020, 11:28:11 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2020, 09:40:13 AM
I'll be curious to see what things look like in 2 weeks, both here and in GA.
Texas began "reopening" on May 1 as well.  We're now 2 weeks into it, so if hospitalizations are going to increase, they'd be starting right about now.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 14, 2020, 11:28:29 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 14, 2020, 10:37:19 AM
where have you been?

all you get from main stream media is gloom and doom
Can you define exactly who is considered "main stream media"? I see it talked about all the time, but who qualifies?

Obviously I know CNN will qualify, but who else?


Quote
as to why well its pretty obvious to me that the media want this country to stay closed down 
CNN, for example, is owned by AT&T. AT&T's stock is down ~25% since the mid-March when the lockdowns started. CNN's sister division is sports, which obviously has very little content to show now. Their customers have trouble getting to stores to buy new cellphones--the mobile/handset business has cratered over the last few months. 

Most of the mainstream media are part of large enterprises, many of which are financially hurting because of the lockdown. Yet you think they *want* to continue it?


Quote
as long as possible to damage POTUS
And I assume the rest of the world is in on it too? Europe has all closed down not because it's prudent, but because they're trying to damage POTUS?

I'll stipulate that most of what is considered the "mainstream media" is anti-Trump. However a much simpler explanation for keeping lockdowns is to save lives, not to damage POTUS. After all, these are all major corporations, and corpses don't make very good customers--so unless they've got a lot of side divisions in funeral homes and coffin building, it's not in their financial interest to make the lockdown any longer than it needs to be.


Quote
Our weekly death count has decreased for the last 3 weeks in a row but you wont see that talked about anywhere
Literally the question of "when is it safe to reopen" is being talked about everywhere. Here in liberal California we're already seeing some reopening, and talking about dine-in restaurants being allowed to reopen.

Case rates, death rates, etc are constantly talked about. Heck, right on the NY Times (which I suppose is MSM?) coronavirus page they highlight in which states cases are increasing, which are staying the same, and which are decreasing. They also have a nice graph nationally that shows the 7-day moving average of daily deaths and it's showing a clear downward trend.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

 (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html)What I don't understand is that it seems the things you think aren't talked about anywhere are being literally talked about everywhere. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 11:31:36 AM
Quote from: utee94 on May 14, 2020, 11:26:05 AM
A lot of people watch Fox News, so I consider it mainstream.  But half the people in the country refuse to watch it, 

How strange.  I wonder why that is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 14, 2020, 11:32:59 AM
Quote from: utee94 on May 14, 2020, 11:26:05 AM
A lot of people watch Fox News, so I consider it mainstream.
I don't know so much about that... Fox news is one of the outlets that complains about the mainstream media, so I'm not sure they themselves would identify as MSM.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 14, 2020, 11:33:42 AM
Hear is a current report on hospitalizations 

I realize going forward is what counts

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-texas-hospitalizations-drop-slightly-deaths-hold-steady/269-a4594edb-4ba0-4ca3-ac0e-7185bd4e8dd4 (https://www.kvue.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-texas-hospitalizations-drop-slightly-deaths-hold-steady/269-a4594edb-4ba0-4ca3-ac0e-7185bd4e8dd4)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 11:35:00 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 14, 2020, 11:28:29 AM
I'll stipulate that most of what is considered the "mainstream media" is anti-Trump. 
I assume any large population who has been exposed to his words/beliefs/actions would also not be a fan of him.
Maybe it's less a "the media is out to get him and bring him down" thing and more of a "look at the 2016 voting results of where he's from" thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 11:36:07 AM
A reminder, about 30 million watch NETWORK news each news hour.  About 10 million watch all the cable news stations at the same time.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 14, 2020, 11:37:26 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 11:31:36 AM
How strange.  I wonder why that is.
I will explain it to you.  People want an outlet that is either more fact based, or that panders to their narrative.

i would assume that is why Fox News Ratings FAR surpass CNNs, and why the gap is growing.  CNN panders to the extreme left, IMHO, while Fox panders to conservatives in right, but NOT the far right.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 11:37:37 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 11:35:00 AM
I assume any large population who has been exposed to his words/beliefs/actions would also not be a fan of him.


Enough were fans to vote him into office ... apparently, if I recollect rightly.  I imagine they had all been suitable "exposed".

Of course, these days it's reasonable to presume many voters were simply voting LOTE.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 11:38:13 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 14, 2020, 11:32:59 AM
I don't know so much about that... Fox news is one of the outlets that complains about the mainstream media, so I'm not sure they themselves would identify as MSM.
The cable news network with the most viewers isn't mainstream.  How brilliant is that?!?

Maybe the mainstream media are the channels that don't type out everything said aloud, because their average viewer isn't 106 years old?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 11:39:28 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on May 14, 2020, 11:37:26 AM
I will explain it to you.  People want an outlet that is either more fact based, or that panders to their narrative.

i would assume that is why Fox News Ratings FAR surpass CNNs, and why the gap is growing.  CNN panders to the extreme left, IMHO, while Fox panders to conservatives in right, but NOT the far right.
Whew. 
I wish I knew the date CNN became extreme left.  I thought that was MSNBC's role.  Hmmph.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 14, 2020, 11:40:08 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 14, 2020, 11:33:42 AM
Hear is a current report on hospitalizations

I realize going forward is what counts

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-texas-hospitalizations-drop-slightly-deaths-hold-steady/269-a4594edb-4ba0-4ca3-ac0e-7185bd4e8dd4 (https://www.kvue.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-texas-hospitalizations-drop-slightly-deaths-hold-steady/269-a4594edb-4ba0-4ca3-ac0e-7185bd4e8dd4)
Good data. Thanks.

Big jump in late April, but modest declines since then. Good to see.

I do agree with @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) that if the number of hospitalizations are going to jump from reopening, it would most dramatically be seen starting 10-14 days after reopening, so next week's number from May 12-18--as well as the one following that--will be key metrics. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 14, 2020, 11:40:25 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 11:35:00 AM
I assume any large population who has been exposed to his words/beliefs/actions would also not be a fan of him.
Maybe it's less a "the media is out to get him and bring him down" thing and more of a "look at the 2016 voting results of where he's from" thing.
Again, time will tell, but your are grasping here.  His popularity is very high statistically right now. He very well may be re-elected.

pick a politician, let’s say Obama.  A large population here was exposed to his words/ beliefs/ actions and were not a fan of him.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 14, 2020, 11:40:55 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 11:39:28 AM
Whew. 
I'll pray for you.
No need.  You should pray for yourself though. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 14, 2020, 11:41:34 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 14, 2020, 11:32:59 AM
I don't know so much about that... Fox news is one of the outlets that complains about the mainstream media, so I'm not sure they themselves would identify as MSM.
Fox news has more viewers then any other cable news channel
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 11:42:25 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on May 14, 2020, 11:40:25 AM
pick a politician, let’s say Obama.  A large population here was exposed to his words/ beliefs/ actions and were not a fan of him.
Those people were also exposed to his skin tone.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 11:42:57 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on May 14, 2020, 11:40:55 AM
No need.  You should pray for yourself though.
What should I ask for?  That's what praying is, right?  Groveling or greed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 11:45:01 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 14, 2020, 11:41:34 AM
Fox news has more viewers then any other cable news channel
Yes, but fewer than ABC/NBC/CBS by a fairly large number.

We swapped a man with a kind of brown skin tone for one who is kind of orange.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 14, 2020, 11:47:01 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on May 14, 2020, 11:37:26 AM
I will explain it to you.  People want an outlet that is either more fact based, or that panders to their narrative.

i would assume that is why Fox News Ratings FAR surpass CNNs, and why the gap is growing.  CNN panders to the extreme left, IMHO, while Fox panders to conservatives in right, but NOT the far right.
MSNBC panders to the extreme left. Fox panders to the right. And per the below chart, both would be pandering--they inject a lot more opinion/persuasion into their reporting than just reporting facts directly.

CNN is center-left and higher on the "reporting/analysis" spectrum rather than "opinion/persuasion", but not as high or as centrist as outlets like NPR. 


https://www.adfontesmedia.com/interactive-media-bias-chart/?v=402f03a963ba (https://www.adfontesmedia.com/interactive-media-bias-chart/?v=402f03a963ba)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 14, 2020, 11:48:05 AM
Guys, let's not go down this route. I'd hate to see Badge have to close this thread. We've mostly stayed above that crap.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 14, 2020, 11:49:19 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 11:42:25 AM
Those people were also exposed to his skin tone.
Race baiting now I see.   Not a very wise or accurate assumption by the way.
take me for example.  Well educated, fiercely independent, very biased towards live and let live, well above average understanding of economics ( since that is what my undergrad and grad degrees are in).

i eagerly voted for Obama in his first term.   But I did not like his words/ beliefs/ actions.  I did. It vote for him the second time.  I did however support him because I believe a citizen should support the President.

but their has been data ad nauseam published that shows many people who voted for Obama, especially in the upper middle class suburbs, also voted for Trump.

are you seriously going to say they let his skin color effect their second vote? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 11:49:23 AM
Seems to me that things would improve if NPR was the only news outlet.  Over time, we'd all magically come back closer to each other, politically.  
Oh well, one can dream.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 14, 2020, 11:53:22 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 14, 2020, 11:32:59 AM
I don't know so much about that... Fox news is one of the outlets that complains about the mainstream media, so I'm not sure they themselves would identify as MSM.
So this is the thing. Fox News is the undisputed king of cable news and really TV news. If they can't be considered part of that, then we might just have to admit that the MSM is not actually a thing, but a vague illusion that folks complain about.

What I'm saying is, the MSM is never, ever, ever going to make people satisfied. It exists as a vague abstraction to complain about, often in political discussions. No one has a good handle on it. Few people should have a good handle on it because consuming that much TV news is honestly probably not great for you. It exists as an illusion to feed our desire to complain. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 11:55:20 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on May 14, 2020, 11:49:19 AM
Race baiting now I see.  Not a very wise or accurate assumption by the way.
take me for example.  Well educated, fiercely independent, very biased towards live and let live, well above average understanding of economics ( since that is what my undergrad and grad degrees are in).

i eagerly voted for Obama in his first term.  But I did not like his words/ beliefs/ actions.  I did. It vote for him the second time.  I did however support him because I believe a citizen should support the President.

but their has been data ad nauseam published that shows many people who voted for Obama, especially in the upper middle class suburbs, also voted for Trump.

are you seriously going to say they let his skin color effect their second vote?
No, because I'm not commenting on that group of people.  You brought them up, as you're one of them.  I'm not going to pretend to know your mind.
Citing race isn't automatically race-baiting.  Stop that.  Just as you aren't conjuring your opinions from thin air, nor am I with mine.  Based on comments, attitudes, and conversations I've had (ie - anectodal data, like yours), there was certainly a good portion of the population that had a problem with having a black president. 

If you disagree, I'd love to live in your world.

I also don't find this incendiary or risky of a thread shutdown, we're just conversing.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 14, 2020, 11:56:17 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 14, 2020, 11:47:01 AM
MSNBC panders to the extreme left. Fox panders to the right. And per the below chart, both would be pandering--they inject a lot more opinion/persuasion into their reporting than just reporting facts directly.

CNN is center-left and higher on the "reporting/analysis" spectrum rather than "opinion/persuasion", but not as high or as centrist as outlets like NPR.


https://www.adfontesmedia.com/interactive-media-bias-chart/?v=402f03a963ba (https://www.adfontesmedia.com/interactive-media-bias-chart/?v=402f03a963ba)
I struggle to pay attention to CNN.  You can’t learn anything there.  I wanted to see their reaction to the special elections yesterday.  They did not cover them.  I wanted to get their take on Biden’s alleged assault, since they were 24/7 on the Kavanaugh allegations.  They don’t cover it.  I wanted to get their reaction about the whole Flynn unmasking and how the Russia collusion narrative is now in question with respect to its origins.  They aren’t talking about it.   Hell, they won’t even cover personal details of a mass shooter if he is not white.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 14, 2020, 11:56:21 AM
Getting back to the virus

Like it or not we are reopening this country

hopefully in a careful prudent manner but never the less we are reopening

If all the doubters who are not part of the solution just get out of the way and

let the American people save this country we'll get this job done
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 11:57:46 AM
As I repeatedly note, being legally allowed to reopen is a far cry from BEING open.  A very far cry.

And that won't change suddenly no matter what governors do.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 11:58:00 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on May 14, 2020, 11:56:17 AM
  They aren’t talking about it.  Hell, they won’t even cover personal details of a mass shooter if he is not white. 
How many of those have there been?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 11:59:15 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 14, 2020, 11:56:21 AM

If all the doubters who are not part of the solution just get out of the way and

let the American people save this country we'll get this job done
(https://i.imgur.com/GDxejZr.jpg)

Is your morning alarm clock set to Hulk Hogan's entrance music? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 14, 2020, 12:00:21 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 11:55:20 AM
No, because I'm not commenting on that group of people.  You brought them up, as you're one of them.  I'm not going to pretend to know your mind.
Citing race isn't automatically race-baiting.  Stop that.  Just as you aren't conjuring your opinions from thin air, nor am I with mine.  Based on comments, attitudes, and conversations I've had (ie - anectodal data, like yours), there was certainly a good portion of the population that had a problem with having a black president.

If you disagree, I'd love to live in your world.

I also don't find this incendiary or risky of a thread shutdown, we're just conversing. 
There may have been people who had that issue with him.  But you assume that people were against his ideas because of that.  That is a stretch at best.  There is a large crowd of people who just have conservative beliefs about economic matters, freedom, constitution, etc..

I would add, there are plenty of people who are against white politicians too, because of their skin color.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 12:02:50 PM
How many voters in SC voted against Tim Scott because of his skin color?

How many voted FOR HIM simply because of his skin color?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 12:03:54 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on May 14, 2020, 12:00:21 PM
There may have been people who had that issue with him.  But you assume that people were against his ideas because of that.  That is a stretch at best.  There is a large crowd of people who just have conservative beliefs about economic matters, freedom, constitution, etc..

I would add, there are plenty of people who are against white politicians too, because of their skin color.
No, I'm saying they were against him without even addressing his ideas/actions.  
But you're right, there are people who are blindly against white politicians.  They're racist, too...except there are far fewer of them with far fewer money and influence.  

And "their party" is nominating another old white person.  Just like last time and every time aside from Obama.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 14, 2020, 12:05:36 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 14, 2020, 11:53:22 AM
then we might just have to admit that the MSM is not actually a thing, but a vague illusion that folks complain about.
DING DING DING!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 12:05:52 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 12:02:50 PM
How many voters in SC voted against Tim Scott because of his skin color?

How many voted FOR HIM simply because of his skin color?


I don't know, you'd have to ask them.
Blindly voting or not voting for someone based on race is wrong.  However, that can hold true WHILE STILL ACKNOWLEDGING inequalities in how the most qualified person is produced, identified, and nominated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 14, 2020, 12:05:56 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 11:58:00 AM
How many of those have there been?
Is that important to you?  Don’t you find it odd that they go into tremendous details with stories, photos, etc when a mass shooting happens, but if it is not a white person they do the opposite and won’t show a single photo?  Can you name a single other news outlet of the big 5 ( CNN, Fox, NBC, CBS, ABC) that does something like that?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 12:06:32 PM
I'm still waiting to find out what I should be praying for.  

Free tacos?  World peace?  4 more years!?!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 14, 2020, 12:07:34 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on May 14, 2020, 11:56:21 AM
Getting back to the virus

Like it or not we are reopening this country

hopefully in a careful prudent manner but never the less we are reopening

If all the doubters who are not part of the solution just get out of the way and

let the American people save this country we'll get this job done
This tone is ... never not weird to me. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 12:07:37 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on May 14, 2020, 12:05:56 PM
Is that important to you?  Don’t you find it odd that they go into tremendous details with stories, photos, etc when a mass shooting happens, but if it is not a white person they do the opposite and won’t show a single photo?  Can you name a single other news outlet of the big 5 ( CNN, Fox, NBC, CBS, ABC) that does something like that? 
Yeah, it was a genuine question.  How many have their been?  
I can't find anything odd without first analyzing the data.  I'm a nerd like that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 12:08:16 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 14, 2020, 12:07:34 PM
This tone is ... never not weird to me.


He's the guy that watches Team America and doesn't realize he's being parodied.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 14, 2020, 12:10:40 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 12:06:32 PM
I'm still waiting to find out what I should be praying for. 

Free tacos?  World peace?  4 more years!?!
You have to answer your own question..you said you would pray for me.  What would you ask?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 14, 2020, 12:10:50 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 12:08:16 PM
He's the guy that watches Team America and doesn't realize he's being parodied. 
and youre the guy that brings race into every topic
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 12:12:02 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on May 14, 2020, 12:10:40 PM
You have to answer your own question..you said you would pray for me.  What would you ask?
That you only go to NPR for your news for the next year.  I know, I know,...you'd rather have free tacos.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 12:12:35 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 14, 2020, 12:10:50 PM
and youre the guy that brings race into every topic

Do I?  
I bring it?  Or do I just recognize that it's already there?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 14, 2020, 12:13:00 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 12:07:37 PM
Yeah, it was a genuine question.  How many have their been? 
I can't find anything odd without first analyzing the data.  I'm a nerd like that.
Not sure.  I don’t keep track.  I only noticed it when there was that string of them, and the one in Virginia was treated so differently.
Then there was one right after that out west, California I think, and it was the same thing. All the networks were delving into the shooter, who was Hispanic, except CNN.  It was so obvious.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 14, 2020, 12:15:00 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 12:12:02 PM
That you only go to NPR for your news for the next year.  I know, I know,...you'd rather have free tacos.
Lol.  I would rather have free tacos.   

don’t worry OFA, I see the bias in Fox too...it is obvious.  I try to hunt facts where. I can find them and make a judgement for myself, but sometimes the facts are hard to find,
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 14, 2020, 12:16:41 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 11:49:23 AM
Seems to me that things would improve if NPR was the only news outlet. 
If they are remotely close to PBS I call bullshit.They used to pretty fair they might as well be spokesman for the far left now.Except for Antiques Road Show,Nature,NOVA and Finding Your Roots I hardly watch it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 12:17:15 PM
Maybe I should pray for a female Republican president!

Ha, actually, that makes me think of an equivalent. 

Okay, so my joke would go, if there ever was a female Republican president, she'd be a hot, conservative blonde.  But that can't be, because Fox News hired them all.
....just like.....
Strong-armed left-handers can't be NFL quarterbacks because they're already pitchers in baseball.


See?  Funny! 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 14, 2020, 12:17:51 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 12:03:54 PM
No, I'm saying they were against him without even addressing his ideas/actions. 
But you're right, there are people who are blindly against white politicians.  They're racist, too...except there are far fewer of them with far fewer money and influence. 

And "their party" is nominating another old white person.  Just like last time and every time aside from Obama.
I can agree with this.   True racism sickens me.  But that word is tossed around now like a hand grenade in hand to hand combat. I see it being used when someone does not like the other side and what they are doing or saying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 14, 2020, 12:18:20 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 12:17:15 PM
Maybe I should pray for a female Republican president!

Ha, actually, that makes me think of an equivalent. 

Okay, so my joke would go, if there every was a female Republican president, she'd be a hot, conservative blonde.  But that can't be, because Fox News hired them all.
....just like.....
Strong-armed left-handers can't be NFL quarterbacks because they're already pitchers in baseball.


See?  Funny! 
That is funny!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 14, 2020, 12:19:06 PM
I look forward to the coming lock. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 14, 2020, 12:19:25 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on May 14, 2020, 12:05:56 PM
Is that important to you?  Don’t you find it odd that they go into tremendous details with stories, photos, etc when a mass shooting happens, but if it is not a white person they do the opposite and won’t show a single photo?  Can you name a single other news outlet of the big 5 ( CNN, Fox, NBC, CBS, ABC) that does something like that? 
I don't recall them not showing photos when the DC Sniper(s) were found...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 12:20:20 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on May 14, 2020, 12:17:51 PM
I can agree with this.  True racism sickens me.  But that word is tossed around now like a hand grenade in hand to hand combat. I see it being used when someone does not like the other side and what they are doing or saying.
True. 
It's not exactly aligned with this, but it's in the ballpark:  everything a racist does or says isn't racist.  
But yeah, calling racism for everything becomes the boy who cried wolf.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on May 14, 2020, 12:20:36 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 12:12:35 PM
Do I? 
I bring it?  Or do I just recognize that it's already there?
I think by that logic you can almost interject anything into a discussion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on May 14, 2020, 12:21:25 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 11:42:25 AM
Those people were also exposed to his skin tone.
As a person who disliked Obama's words/deeds/actions in general and who has voted for numerous candidates of his skin tone in the past, as the grandfather of 3 mixed raced children, Who has a Black son-in-law, a Mexican daughter-in-law, a Guatemalan daughter-in-law. who took in to raise a black teenage boy who dad had died. Who took in a teenage Pakistani girl whose father kicked her out, I resent your insinuation that I disliked him because of his skin tone
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 14, 2020, 12:22:53 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 14, 2020, 12:19:25 PM
I don't recall them not showing photos when the DC Sniper(s) were found...
Your foing back to a different time.  I used to think CNN was a great place to get info back then.  
also, it probably is not a good comparison...that was a one of a kind, long running national story and manhunt.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 12:24:01 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on May 14, 2020, 12:20:36 PM
I think by that logic you can almost interject anything into a discussion.
That's probably true or nearly true.  
But let's be plain here...is citing race while discussing the only black president in our history likely to be arbitrarily interjected into the conversation?

(https://media.makeameme.org/created/are-you-sure-a2k88q.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 12:25:19 PM
All these republicans who didn't like Obama's actions sure should be glad Newt Gingrich didn't become president.  That's all I'm saying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 12:26:06 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 14, 2020, 12:19:06 PM
I look forward to the coming lock.
I think we're okay.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 14, 2020, 12:29:45 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on May 14, 2020, 12:21:25 PM
As a person who disliked Obama's words/deeds/actions in general and who has voted for numerous candidates of his skin tone in the past, as the grandfather of 3 mixed raced children, Who has a Black son-in-law, a Mexican daughter-in-law, a Guatemalan daughter-in-law. who took in to raise a black teenage boy who dad had died. Who took in a teenage Pakistani girl whose father kicked her out, I resent your insinuation that I disliked him because of his skin tone
As long as you don't have any peyote popping Gators Fans in the clan  - you're good
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 14, 2020, 12:29:55 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 11:31:36 AM
How strange.  I wonder why that is.
It's the exact same reason why the other half refuse to watch MSNBC/CNN/ABC/NBC/CBS.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 14, 2020, 12:30:14 PM
well catching up on this tread was a waste of time
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on May 14, 2020, 12:30:47 PM
I have no doubt that Obama didn’t receive some  votes based strictly on his skin color.

I have no doubt he received some votes based on the exact same thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 14, 2020, 12:30:57 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 12:25:19 PM
All these republicans who didn't like Obama's actions sure should be glad Newt Gingrich didn't become president.  That's all I'm saying.
Yea, I can agree with that too. 

I liked the freshness and style of Obama when he first came around, especially because coming off of Bush ( who I liked but hated his communication style).   Even though I did not agree with some of his ideas, I thought he would be good for the country. And believe it or not, I though having our first black President was a great thing.  Maybe it was a timing thing for me.

But I was feeling different his second time around.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2020, 12:31:30 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 14, 2020, 11:48:05 AM
Guys, let's not go down this route. I'd hate to see Badge have to close this thread. We've mostly stayed above that crap.
Correct. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2020, 12:35:04 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 12:26:06 PM
I think we're okay.
We don't want "names" mentioned here. We're not OK.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2020, 12:35:35 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 14, 2020, 12:30:14 PM
well catching up on this tread was a waste of time
No shit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 14, 2020, 12:39:58 PM
my greatest post so far today
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 14, 2020, 12:40:46 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 14, 2020, 12:39:58 PM
my greatest post so far today
so did you find a bar that was open
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 14, 2020, 12:43:30 PM
not yet, Friday is the day

but, there where plenty of little plastic bottles of Black Velvet on the beverage cart last night on the golf course

Coffee and Powerade this morning
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 14, 2020, 12:44:25 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 14, 2020, 12:43:30 PM
not yet, Friday is the day

but, there where plenty of little plastic bottles of Black Velvet on the beverage cart last night on the golf course

Coffee and Powerade this morning
breakfast of champions
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 14, 2020, 12:44:47 PM
I would guess places like Texas, Georgia, and Iowa will not see a spike within 14 days of the opening

it will take folks in mass longer to come out of their houses and go to the places that are open
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 12:52:22 PM
I have a timing luxury of not having to change my behavior, as my school year ends next Thursday.  I'll limit my interactions with the masses all summer.
Plus, it'll be so hot outside, that I'd do that anyway.  Phoenix is stupid in the summer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 12:54:10 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on May 14, 2020, 12:30:47 PM
I have no doubt that Obama didn’t receive some  votes based strictly on his skin color.

I have no doubt he received some votes based on the exact same thing.
We all know both are wrong, and yet both remain.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 12:54:22 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 14, 2020, 12:29:55 PM
It's the exact same reason why the other half refuse to watch MSNBC/CNN/ABC/NBC/CBS.
Indeed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 12:56:18 PM
So I got a pizza from Papa John's while on a group chat with friends, and they gave me shit for not ordering from a local pizza joint.
I argued that the Papa Johns was right down the street and was local to me.  They didn't buy it.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 14, 2020, 12:58:48 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 14, 2020, 11:40:08 AM
Good data. Thanks.

Big jump in late April, but modest declines since then. Good to see.

I do agree with @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) that if the number of hospitalizations are going to jump from reopening, it would most dramatically be seen starting 10-14 days after reopening, so next week's number from May 12-18--as well as the one following that--will be key metrics.

So... anyway.... yeah.

I'm watching this closely for Austin and Travis County over the next week.

Although like Fearless said, and CD has posted his observations, people are still practicing distancing and not going out en masse, plus a ton of places simply haven't reopened at all (and many never will), so I really don't expect huge ramps on these numbers.  And that's a good thing, we need people to self-select based on their own levels of risk tolerance, so we can continue to burn through the virus while keeping the hospitals from being overwhelmed.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 14, 2020, 01:01:30 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 12:56:18 PM
So I got a pizza from Papa John's while on a group chat with friends, and they gave me shit for not ordering from a local pizza joint.
I argued that the Papa Johns was right down the street and was local to me.  They didn't buy it. 

Well 95% of Papa John's are franchised rather than corporate-owned company stores, so there's a very good chance that the purchase of your Papa John's pizza supported a local business owner, and a 100% chance that it supported local employees.

So, good on you, you bought local just as your friends urged you to do!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 14, 2020, 01:42:26 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 14, 2020, 01:01:30 PM
Well 95% of Papa John's are franchised rather than corporate-owned company stores, so there's a very good chance that the purchase of your Papa John's pizza supported a local business owner, and a 100% chance that it supported local employees.

So, good on you, you bought local just as your friends urged you to do!
I find myself split on this.

On the one hand, these things are true. But, spiritually it feels weird. Like if I said, that place has a lot of local restaurants, all Dominos and Subways, that would feel weird.

In any case, folks will do what they gotta and I won't judge. I'm in part throwing money toward non-chain local restaurants because I like what they do, and since I only have so much money, if I can contribute to keeping a unique sandwich place standing, I'd prefer that to ensuring one of the seven Papa Johns near me stays open. 

Maybe it's because I fear if a non-franchise goes under, it will not return, whereas if a franchise does, it not only will return, but will mostly just change a drive to pick up or delivery process. That feels harsh to the unique people who run those restaurants, but the product they sell is of course not unique. 

Anyway, food for thought. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2020, 01:45:43 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 14, 2020, 01:42:26 PM
I find myself split on this.

On the one hand, these things are true. But, spiritually it feels weird. Like if I said, that place has a lot of local restaurants, all Dominos and Subways, that would feel weird.

In any case, folks will do what they gotta and I won't judge. I'm in part throwing money toward non-chain local restaurants because I like what they do, and since I only have so much money, if I can contribute to keeping a unique sandwich place standing, I'd prefer that to ensuring one of the seven Papa Johns near me stays open.

Maybe it's because I fear if a non-franchise goes under, it will not return, whereas if a franchise does, it not only will return, but will mostly just change a drive to pick up or delivery process. That feels harsh to the unique people who run those restaurants, but the product they sell is of course not unique.

Anyway, food for thought.
This is where I sit. Chains are a dime a dozen. It's the true locals that make a neighborhood.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 14, 2020, 02:02:42 PM
I do as I have always done

support the places I like the best

I liked 5 guys burgers and supported it.  Apparently not enough people had the same appreciation or possibly it was simply miss managed, but it failed and closed

I don't go into Walmart, but that's because I dislike the experience

I do shop at Amazon because I don't dislike the experience
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 14, 2020, 02:07:19 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2020, 01:45:43 PM
This is where I sit. Chains are a dime a dozen. It's the true locals that make a neighborhood.
Oh yeah, I eat at one-off locals almost exclusively for all the reasons you and bab cited. 

But I also don't judge other people for their choices.  If you like Papa John's pizza then you should eat Papa John's pizza, regardless of what some judgey friends mght say about it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 02:25:19 PM
We don't have many chains around us relatively.  We had lunch at our favorite place, outside.  At one point we were the only people dining.  I went back later to pick up some cheesecake and they had maybe 8 tables dining, so it's not a complete disaster.  The bill was $33 and I left a $30 tip.

We walked around some after and stopped in Whole Foods which looks like maybe 30% normal business activity.  

Construction still going flat out, hotels all closed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 14, 2020, 02:28:37 PM
I don't eat Papa Johns not because they're not local, but because I'm a food snob. 

Cicero's around the corner is much better. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2020, 02:38:35 PM
A 12-year-old from Gage Park on the Southwest Side has died after being diagnosed with COVID-19, the youngest victim of the disease in Cook County, according to the medical examiner's office.

Ernesto Guzman was pronounced dead at 12:18 a.m. Thursday at Advocate Christ Medical Center in Oak Lawn, according to the office.

The primary cause of death was listed as pneumonia, with contributing factors listed as COVID-19 viral infection, asthma, obstructive sleep apnea and Charcot-Marie-Tooth disorder, the office said.

An autopsy was scheduled for later Thursday, but the office said Ernesto is the youngest known death from COVID-19 in Cook County.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 02:39:19 PM
My kids liked Papa John's and I could abide it OK.  And they had specials ALL THE TIME.  If I didn't feel like cooking, for them it was a treat and I could zip there and back in 5 minutes back in the day.  

I consider there to be five major food groups, and the pizza covers 3 of them, if the kids had a Coke (which was rare) and I had a beer (which was not) that covered another food group.

I almost never allowed soft drinks, chips, cookies, desert in the house when I had kids.  I still don't mostly except the wife likes a Coke on occasion.  Soft drinks are pretty horrible things to put in your body, and don't get me going on fructose.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 14, 2020, 02:47:19 PM
I had pizza hut for the first time in a long time the other day. One of my kids likes having her own cheese pizza, and thought she might like the personal pan. It was undercooked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on May 14, 2020, 02:48:47 PM
We had two bad experiences with local places last Friday. The first was a little cafe that only serves breakfast and lunch. Apparently they had been touting pound cakes they were making on Facebook.  While I was out my wife told me to get one. When the guy rung me up he told me it would be $18.02. I internalized my shock and ended up paying $23 with tip for this little rectangular cake that wasn’t half as good as the vanilla pound cakes I can get at Kroger for like 6 bucks.  Half of it is still sitting in kitchen right now because one wanted more than one piece.

Then that evening we ordered dinner from a place we normally like. They were trying some  new deli style entrees so my daughter and I got meat loaf sandwiches with tater tots.  Whatever condiment concoction was on it didn’t pair well with meatloaf and onion on it. The tater tots ended up being sweet potato tots and I’m not a big sweet potato fan. Again, after tip I was in nearly $60. I wasn’t the happiest camper.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 14, 2020, 02:49:23 PM
I prefer hard drinks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 14, 2020, 02:52:06 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 14, 2020, 02:49:23 PM
I prefer hard drinks
😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 14, 2020, 02:54:15 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on May 14, 2020, 02:48:47 PM
We had two bad experiences with local places last Friday. The first was a little cafe that only serves breakfast and lunch. Apparently they had been touting pound cakes they were making on Facebook.  While I was out my wife told me to get one. When the guy rung me up he told me it would be $18.02. I internalized my shock and ended up paying $23 with tip for this little rectangular cake that wasn’t half as good as the vanilla pound cakes I can get at Kroger for like 6 bucks.  Half of it is still sitting in kitchen right now because one wanted more than one piece.

Then that evening we ordered dinner from a place we normally like. They were trying some  new deli style entrees so my daughter and I got meat loaf sandwiches with tater tots.  Whatever condiment concoction was on it didn’t pair well with meatloaf and onion on it. The tater tots ended up being sweet potato tots and I’m not a big sweet potato fan. Again, after tip I was in nearly $60. I wasn’t the happiest camper.
That's my experience eating out in general in America. I always feel ripped off.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 02:59:36 PM
Dining out has gotten expensive.  We used to go out for lunch 2-3 times a week and the tab would often exceed $50.  If you order alcohol of course all bets are off.  These are not high end places.  They aren't Subway either of course.

Speaking of which, we were in Chartres years ago and set out in the evening to see the sights and cathedral etc. and after a bit started thinking about dinner.  After several attempts to dine somewhere, we finally gave up, it was 9 PM, and went to Subway.  In France.

It came to 28 euros as I recall.  We still laugh about it, so its a souvenir, as the French say.

Venir is the French verb for "to come".  Souvenir is basically money to come, or something like that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 03:00:23 PM
If you always feel ripped off, don't dine out obviously, but perhaps you are not finding the right places.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on May 14, 2020, 03:02:18 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2020, 07:43:48 AM
Wisconsin's Supreme Court struck down the Governor's "safer at home" order as non-constitutional. Wisconsin is open. We'll see what that leads to now.
Based on the anecdotal evidence I saw last night from friends who live east of the St Croix (packed bars within hours of the decision in many different parts of the state), I'm filing it under "Play stupid games, win stupid prizes."

Speaking of trying to push back on entry restrictions...

https://twitter.com/waEMD/status/1260751258861703169?s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 14, 2020, 03:11:06 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on May 14, 2020, 02:54:15 PM
That's my experience eating out in general in America. I always feel ripped off.
Man if you feel you're getting ripped off in America, you'd really hate dining out in other countries where it's much, MUCH more expensive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 03:22:00 PM
I'm often surprised how reasonable it is to dine out in France relatively, and the food is better for the money IMHO.  They also don't upcharge for wine ridiculously.  A bottle of wine here on the menu is often more than double RETAIL.  So, if it's $60 on the menu, it would be $30 at Kroger, and they all pay $20 for the bottle.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 14, 2020, 03:38:57 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 03:22:00 PM
I'm often surprised how reasonable it is to dine out in France relatively, and the food is better for the money IMHO.  They also don't upcharge for wine ridiculously.  A bottle of wine here on the menu is often more than double RETAIL.  So, if it's $60 on the menu, it would be $30 at Kroger, and they all pay $20 for the bottle.
That was my experience in Paris and Rome. Plus tipping not really a thing. Some eating experiences here, especially at chain restaurants, feels like an exercise in how much money they can extract from you as opposed to enjoying a good meal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 03:49:43 PM
Chain restaurants in general are akin to factories.  They can be decent places to dine at times, but they do have a "System" which is intended to maximize profit.  I avoid them generally speaking with a few exceptions here and there.

My son in law is a CIA graduate and worked for a while at Macaroni Grill.  He said they produced a pretty good quality product and everything was systemitized in terms of ingredients and production to be efficient.  He was generally laudatory of them.  He now lives in France.

The wife used to like to go to Seasons 52, which is a decent chain, when we lived in Cincinnati.  We still go to Macaroni Grill on occasion because I can get $50 gift cards there for $40.  Neither is my favorite place to eat.  

I've mentioned before that the wife used to like KFC and thought their chicken was good.  She doesn't any more.

I suppose it's like thinking Arby's croissants are really good and then having one in France.

Our local favorite place here is pretty similar to a French bistro.  They had outdoor dining.  It is not terribly expensive if you don't get an alcoholic beverage.  We both ordered one today to celebrate their reopening, but the managed comped them for us.  So, I left an overlarge tip.

It's interesting that tipping is rarely done in France but the service in my experience is usually quite good.  The service is included in the bill, which is usually pretty reasonable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 14, 2020, 03:54:24 PM
I worked in a chain restaurant as a waiter. Looking back, they hired a million people because they didn't have to pay us much. It didn't create much of a team atmosphere. It seemed like in Paris there were fewer waiters but they worked together a lot better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 14, 2020, 03:55:12 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 03:49:43 PM

It's interesting that tipping is rarely done in France but the service in my experience is usually quite good.  The service is included in the bill, which is usually pretty reasonable.
Tipping is a pox on our society (maybe not that dramatic, but it's not great as an idea, even if it works great for servers of alcohol)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 14, 2020, 04:16:44 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 14, 2020, 03:55:12 PM
Tipping is a pox on our society (maybe not that dramatic, but it's not great as an idea, even if it works great for servers of alcohol)
Yep. I also kind of hate how it's sprouted around all food service. Jersey Mike's has a space for a tip.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 04:19:11 PM
We used to dine every 3 weeks or so at a nearby French restaurant.  Obviously we were pleased with the product they provided for the cost.  The food is not true French, but it's reasonably close.  Our ingredients are not the same.  About half the servers there are French and they enjoy speaking French with the wife.  I will routinely be over $120 with tip, and it's usually half priced wine night for them.  Between not going there and not traveling, I'm saving a good bit of money that otherwise would have gone towards the GDP and taxes.

They remain closed.  I see the botanical garden is reopening next week for members only.

The cities and states are getting killed on tax revenue losses.

I was perusing some magazine's top 50 restaurants in the metro area and counted five that we have been to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on May 14, 2020, 04:21:43 PM
I’m a tightwad in my most areas but I enjoy eating out. I don’t mind  spend spending a lot of money on a nice meal in a nice place.  But I have to enjoy it and it has to fill me up. Neither happened last week. Actually, for $23 that damn pound cake would have had to give me an orgasm for me to think I got my money’s worth out of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 14, 2020, 04:56:40 PM
I don't eat out much because of the price

when I do, I enjoy it and don't think of it as being ripped off.  I think of it as an entertainment expense.  It's always with friends and it's the experience and socializing I care about.

Same goes for drinking socially in bars.

If I just want good food and good drink, I can do that easily at home or at a friend's house for much less money.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2020, 05:03:59 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on May 14, 2020, 04:21:43 PM
I’m a tightwad in my most areas but I enjoy eating out. I don’t mind  spend spending a lot of money on a nice meal in a nice place.  But I have to enjoy it and it has to fill me up. Neither happened last week. Actually, for $23 that damn pound cake would have had to give me an orgasm for me to think I got my money’s worth out of it.
Two in a row at that price.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2020, 05:05:40 PM
Many here really enjoy cooking, and I get where Max and Bwar coming from. I'm the same. I can make just about anything I've ever eaten in a restaurant (including Chef Tables), and better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on May 14, 2020, 05:21:58 PM
Going to a restaurant is about way more than the taste. Of course better taste often creates a better experience, but eating at a restaurant (at least for many people) is about entertainment, not sustenance. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 05:22:48 PM
There are quite a few items I can't prepare myself that I enjoy "out".  I tend not to order something I think I can fix at home, or something fairly easy to fix at home.

The wife at times says "I can fix that at home", but she rarely does.  

She tried her hand fixing carpaccio once.  Suffice it to say that experiment was a failure, not abysmal, but not nearly as good as we get out.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 05:25:32 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on May 14, 2020, 05:21:58 PM
Going to a restaurant is about way more than the taste. Of course better taste often creates a better experience, but eating at a restaurant (at least for many people) is about entertainment, not sustenance.
We were talking about this during our walk.  Some high end places here are selling take out meals for $100 and up.  Neither of us thought that was a thing we'd do.  That is per person, which in SF of course is like going to Burger King ...

Dining out is entertainment, and learning about new food types.

In France, some of the top chefs now come to people's homes and prepare a meal for them.  I'd do that, if I had the money for it.  One guy is doing take out meals for 39 euros, and he's apparently a top chef.  I'd try that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 14, 2020, 05:42:38 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2020, 05:05:40 PM
Many here really enjoy cooking, and I get where Max and Bwar coming from. I'm the same. I can make just about anything I've ever eaten in a restaurant (including Chef Tables), and better.
Yeah. It's not that I don't ever go out to eat, of course. But I hate to go out to eat for bad food. 

If I go out to eat, it's generally one of a few scenarios:


Most of the "chain restaurants" don't fit those criteria. I'm not going to Applebee's for my anniversary, nothing they serve is so unique or annoying to prepare that I need to get it from a restaurant, and it ain't cheap. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 14, 2020, 05:48:18 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 05:22:48 PM
There are quite a few items I can't prepare myself that I enjoy "out".  I tend not to order something I think I can fix at home, or something fairly easy to fix at home.

The wife at times says "I can fix that at home", but she rarely does. 

She tried her hand fixing carpaccio once.  Suffice it to say that experiment was a failure, not abysmal, but not nearly as good as we get out.
I will mention that part of the experimentation and learning new food is fun for me. 

I.e. I think there are a lot of people that would avoid trying to make Chinese food at home because there are so many unique ingredients and flavors. I just ordered cookbooks on Hunan and Sichuan cuisine. 

I'm not normal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 06:08:18 PM
There is a place near us called Blue India, I don't think I could make anything on their menu.

The do fried okra straws that is divine.

https://www.blueindiaatlanta.com/menu (https://www.blueindiaatlanta.com/menu)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 14, 2020, 06:35:36 PM
To be fair to me, there's literally one pizza place near me that I don't identify as a chain.  I'm in the middle of a big city - it's all chains.  

I probably eat out often, just because I get tired of the 5 things I cook.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 14, 2020, 06:38:24 PM
I've tried many times to perfect pho.

My favorite noodle place continues to just blow my attempts out of the water.  There's a point where I just give up and go away quietly.

On the other hand, my own BBQ is better than any I've ever had commercially, including Franklin (which is absolutely delicious).

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 14, 2020, 08:29:04 PM
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/us/michigan-barber-shop-virus.html?auth=login-email&login=email

This is outrageous.  A police state.  No Governor has this authority.  flatten the curve my ass.  Quit moving the goalposts.  If the Barber wants to open at this juncture, he has every right.  If people think that is too much risk, let them vote with their feet. 

I am glad people are driving for hours to get a haircut and support him.  I only wish I was wishing a 5-6 hour drive so I could do the same.  I would gladly pay him $1000 dollars to cut all three of my hairs.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 14, 2020, 08:30:51 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 14, 2020, 06:38:24 PM
I've tried many times to perfect pho.

My favorite noodle place continues to just blow my attempts out of the water.  There's a point where I just give up and go away quietly.
I use the serious eats recipe, and it's really good. 

Pho (and most soups) are tough because of my wife's poultry allergy. We have to trust that places aren't using chicken stock, and that there's no cross contamination.

That's the only reason I make pho. It's delicious, but it ends up somehow costing MORE than what I spend for it at restaurants. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 14, 2020, 08:36:27 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/tilwNVx.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 14, 2020, 08:38:35 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 14, 2020, 08:36:27 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/tilwNVx.png)
😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on May 14, 2020, 08:43:40 PM
We’ve been getting these Hello Fresh meals delivered to the house. It’s one of these deals where they ship all the ingredients in an insulated cooler with the recipes of the meals you prepare. The upside is when you don’t know what to cook you can pull out one these and just follow the instructions and have a meal in about 30 minutes.

Some have been really good. Others have been kind of meh.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2020, 09:00:56 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on May 14, 2020, 05:21:58 PM
Going to a restaurant is about way more than the taste. Of course better taste often creates a better experience, but eating at a restaurant (at least for many people) is about entertainment, not sustenance.
This is why a create themes when I have guests. Flavor is key, and presentation is probably above taste.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 10:11:12 PM
I had some kind of fake Vietnamese soup with noodles that was excellent.  I want to try the real thing some day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 14, 2020, 11:13:22 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 14, 2020, 10:28:55 AM
Mainstream media? That's a report from Channel 8 -- ABC. You don't get much more mainstream than ABC, right?

There are tons of reports on hydroxychloroquine. They're mostly mixed. Some have shown benefit, some have not. Some have also shown nasty side effects (heart problems).

Also note that we know very little based on this report:

  • We know 56 patients had COVID-19 and 39 were willing to take hydroxychloroquine.
  • It seems of the 39, there were no deaths, although one patient was "going back and forth".
  • We don't know how severe the symptoms were initially for those 39. If their symptoms were mild, or even tested asymptomatic, they likely would have recovered with or without hydroxychloroquine.
  • We don't know of any potential comorbidities in those 39 beyond obviously being old enough to be in a nursing home.
  • We don't know the outcomes of the other 17 patients who didn't take it. I would think that if some of those patients had died, it would have made sense to mention it in the story to show how hydroxychloroquine was better than the "control" group.

This is a flimsy anecdotal report. Yes if you had 39 who didn't die, that's better than nothing, but without a hell of a lot more information, I wouldn't hang your 10-gallon hat on this news.

--------------------

But... IF hydroxychloroquine truly is a miracle treatment, do you really think the "mainstream media" would keep it a secret? Why?

I realize some think they'd do it to damage POTUS, but can you imagine the public outcry that would occur if it was ever proven that the "mainstream media" (which apparently doesn't include ABC) was squashing stories leading to the unnecessary deaths of thousands of Americans?
While accepting your basic points as valid, and without using the "mainstream" term, it is worth noting that most in the media were very uninterested in reporting on the sexual escapades of Harvey Weinstein, Jeffrey Epstein, and Epstein's oft-time guests like Prince Andrew, Bill Clinton, and perhaps even our sitting POTUS.  After years (decades, even) of turning a blind eye to the whole situation, they finally reported on Weinstein and Epstein, but the boys on the guest list have mostly escaped further scrutiny.
The media, in general, have earned the distrust which most Americans feel for them.
Have you ever known a mediot who got the story so wrong so often that you felt safe in taking the default position that whatever he/she said, it was probably not true?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MichiFan87 on May 14, 2020, 11:33:17 PM
I rarely watch the news, but when I do, I usually watch Newsy which proudly claims to be anti-partisan, and I think they generally live up to that standard.

Admittedly, they orient themselves towards my generation, and their main reporters and anchors are all between 20-40 years old. I even saw one of them on a dating site (she didn't match with me).... If you watch and get an impression that they lean liberal, I would understand that, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on May 15, 2020, 12:04:48 AM
So my gym is opening back up tomorrow.  They have a few rules.

You have to schedule workouts in advance. No more than 3 days a week and no more than an hour at a time.  All members and employees must wear a mask at all times (I can see me passing out on the stairmaster doing that). You must answer a series of screening questions and have your temperature taken upon each visit.

I think I’ll keep doing my stuff at home a while longer. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 15, 2020, 12:07:29 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 14, 2020, 11:13:22 PM
While accepting your basic points as valid, and without using the "mainstream" term, it is worth noting that most in the media were very uninterested in reporting on the sexual escapades of Harvey Weinstein, Jeffrey Epstein, and Epstein's oft-time guests like Prince Andrew, Bill Clinton, and perhaps even our sitting POTUS.  After years (decades, even) of turning a blind eye to the whole situation, they finally reported on Weinstein and Epstein, but the boys on the guest list have mostly escaped further scrutiny.
The media, in general, have earned the distrust which most Americans feel for them.
Have you ever known a mediot who got the story so wrong so often that you felt safe in taking the default position that whatever he/she said, it was probably not true?
I mean, I think there would be a gap between being uninterested and unable to break those stories. If they were simply uninterested, someone with an axe to grind would be throwing out all sorts of facts. 

I think if the media has earned such distrust, it's because of a complex web of reasons because I think in some ways the media has changed less than people thing. It's had holes and blindspots for a long, long time (I've been reading a book about how a tyrant in NY was mostly unchecked because of an adoring media). But I think some of the distrust stems from the fact that these days we have an attitude that it's easier (and more enjoyable) to be highly cynical about something than have faith in something. And it's very hard to have a middle ground approach, like "I think some things are true, but have to be guarded and need to take a breath at every spicy headline or blood boiling thing I read because there's just so much out there in the world."

As for a mediot, I don't know if I have, and I suppose I'd need more specificity in the question. Is it an opinion babbler? What's the nature of the repeated incorrect thing? And how much do they talk? Like if they get two high-profile things wrong, I'll be skeptical of high-profile things. But if they're a news reader and they say "the governor said X tonight" and then I get video of the governor saying X, I'll probably believe that. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on May 15, 2020, 01:34:19 AM
My 11 year old's club volleyball team is starting back up around Memorial Day.  They plan (we'll see) to actual play in 3 tournaments within Indy during June.   The practice protocol is pretty tight (no spectators, masked coaches, no commingled scrimmages, spread out across the facility, etc.).   Will be interested to see what the tournament protocol will be.   Guessing they will tell parents to watch via baller tv (which is a streaming service for club sports, pretty slick actually, though I don't presently subscribe to it).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 15, 2020, 01:55:55 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 14, 2020, 08:30:51 PM
I use the serious eats recipe, and it's really good.

Pho (and most soups) are tough because of my wife's poultry allergy. We have to trust that places aren't using chicken stock, and that there's no cross contamination.

That's the only reason I make pho. It's delicious, but it ends up somehow costing MORE than what I spend for it at restaurants.
I've tried that one and a dozen more.  I'm a good cook.  But my attempts simply don't compare.

My local pho place really is that good, better than any I've ever had in LA, SF, Houston (they have a very large Vietnamese population), and even France (which has a huge Vietnamese population).  I've never been to Vietnam so my comparison must end there.

And it's definitely cheaper to buy it than to make.  Which is why I hit the point where I just gave up and let the pros take care of me.

Like I said, that's not really the norm.  I can make a lot of things better than "the best" commercial places.  But pho simply isn't one of them, so I stopped bothering to try.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 15, 2020, 06:44:37 AM
I've got a recipe for Pho written down back up North. When (if) we get back I'll post it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 15, 2020, 07:46:58 AM
Quote from: MichiFan87 on May 14, 2020, 11:33:17 PM
 If you watch and get an impression that they lean liberal, I would understand that, though.
One's perceptions in general of how some news site leans is a reflection of one's perceptions.  I know some right wingers on the A51 site here who think Fox News has been taken over by liberals.  I have liberal friends in Cincinnati who think CNN is way too far right.

I think the best way to get a reasonably balanced view of what is afoot is to use a variety of news sources, note which lead story is not covered by the others, and note which stories get the most attention.  The difference of course is stark.  Whether you think one or the other is R or L reflects your attitudes more than "reality", whatever reality might be.

I try to read Le Monde when in France, mostly for practicing my poor French.  Their articles about the US are .... almost entirely negative, very negative.  The perception of the US by your average French person about the US is "interesting".  At times, they will voice opinions, by educated people, that just leave me agape.

I'm not usually left agape.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 15, 2020, 08:01:27 AM
Don't know what pho you guys concerned wth broth,rice & noodles
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 15, 2020, 08:42:20 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 14, 2020, 11:13:22 PM
The media, in general, have earned the distrust which most Americans feel for them.
Have you ever known a mediot who got the story so wrong so often that you felt safe in taking the default position that whatever he/she said, it was probably not true?
Generally, I have distrust for a lot of the media, but it's more based on the fact that almost everything in the world is very complex and nuanced, and they're barely able to understand the surface layer which they have to explain to readers, and do it in a 30 second soundbite or a 350 word article. 

Most true experts in a field are in that field, not leaving that field to be a journalist covering it, so by definition the journalists almost can't be experts on what they're writing about. As such I take most media sources to merely be jumping-off points, to which I need to go research the rest myself and draw my own conclusions.

Michael Crichton has a good take on it (https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/65213-briefly-stated-the-gell-mann-amnesia-effect-is-as-follows-you):


Quote
Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray's case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the "wet streets cause rain" stories. Paper's full of them.

In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 15, 2020, 08:43:32 AM
enough about eating stuff and on to more important topics

https://www.foxnews.com/science/covid-cure-california-biopharmaceutical-coronavirus-antibody-breakthrough (https://www.foxnews.com/science/covid-cure-california-biopharmaceutical-coronavirus-antibody-breakthrough)

man wouldnt this be nice if true
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 15, 2020, 08:51:34 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 15, 2020, 08:43:32 AM
enough about eating stuff and on to more important topics

https://www.foxnews.com/science/covid-cure-california-biopharmaceutical-coronavirus-antibody-breakthrough (https://www.foxnews.com/science/covid-cure-california-biopharmaceutical-coronavirus-antibody-breakthrough)

man wouldnt this be nice if true
Yeah... I hope it holds up.

Sad that my first instinct was to go and try to figure out whether Sorrento Therapeutics were a bunch of cranks... But they look legit. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 15, 2020, 08:55:01 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 15, 2020, 08:51:34 AM
Yeah... I hope it holds up.

Sad that my first instinct was to go and try to figure out whether Sorrento Therapeutics were a bunch of cranks... But they look legit.
I dont blame you I did the same thing

If this has merit it will be interesting to see how fast MSM runs a story on it

I wager its too optimistic to interest them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 15, 2020, 08:56:38 AM
They had a price spike in December on rumors of a takeover bid, and then a collapse back, the futures this AM are up strongly again.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 15, 2020, 08:58:33 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/08/sorrento-therapeutics-mount-sinai-develop-covid-19-antibody-shield.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/08/sorrento-therapeutics-mount-sinai-develop-covid-19-antibody-shield.html)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 15, 2020, 09:09:13 AM
Now if we can keep Trump from talking about it everyone will get behind this
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 15, 2020, 09:17:47 AM
Whether "we" get behind it or not is unlikely to matter really.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 15, 2020, 09:20:35 AM
Yeah, if it works, everyone will get behind it. If it doesn't, it'll quietly fall into the dustbin of history.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 15, 2020, 09:27:55 AM
fingers crossed

It could help us have a real college football season
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 15, 2020, 09:29:26 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 15, 2020, 09:20:35 AM
Yeah, if it works, everyone will get behind it. If it doesn't, it'll quietly fall into the dustbin of history.
Youre just more trusting then me

I hope youre right if this thing actually works
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 15, 2020, 09:31:10 AM
Now the next question is if this drug works just how soon before we get it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 15, 2020, 09:32:44 AM
If it did work and had no side effects, what is there to trust?  Who would derail this thing that could derail it?

There will be the usual SM claims it contains a Bill Gates Microchip of course, but that sort of thing is fringe.  The FDA will evaluate it, and I expect they can manage that aspect.  If it really works, they will clear it and doctors everywhere will lunge for it.

This is not news that can be somehow suppressed.  Anyone who would want to suppress it for political reasons won't be able to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 15, 2020, 09:34:15 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 15, 2020, 09:31:10 AM
Now the next question is if this drug works just how soon before we get it
It should be scalable, and in reality, we'd only need it to treat those who are infected.  It's ostensibly a cure, like penicillin.

We don't all take penicillin every day (for good reason).  We wouldn't need everyone to take this either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 15, 2020, 09:40:37 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 15, 2020, 09:34:15 AM
It should be scalable, and in reality, we'd only need it to treat those who are infected.  It's ostensibly a cure, like penicillin.

We don't all take penicillin every day (for good reason).  We wouldn't need everyone to take this either.
Supposedly they're thinking about this as a prophylactic... Getting the antibodies into your system pre-infection, conferring some limited period of immunity. Not exactly a vaccine, because I don't know that it teaches your immune system to produce antibodies to this virus, but that it would be vaccine-like in that it would prevent exposure to the virus from becoming an active infection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 15, 2020, 09:54:43 AM
I think treatment would be first obviously, and then certain sectors like health care workers would be pretreated as it were.

It would not be needed for the regular public.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 15, 2020, 10:22:46 AM
I was under the impression that this drug is not only a cure but also a vaccine 

If so it could be given to everyone in hot spots etc

and later on used as a vaccine for everyone in general
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 15, 2020, 10:30:38 AM
A classical vaccine "tricks" our immune system into a fast response to the "germ".  This does not work that way, I wouldn't call it a vaccine.  It's a treatment.

Like penicillin, both work as a preventative IF you then get exposed (probably fairly soon thereafter), but it does not generate immunity within the body for long.

It's a treatment.  We'd use it selectively, not on everyone.  The virus COULD mutate and the treament would have to be modified over time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 15, 2020, 10:40:11 AM
Agreed, it's a treatment. However depending on the length of time the antibodies stay in your system, it might be a prophylactic treatment. 

My guess would be that it would start with people expected to have high risk of exposure (medical workers/etc), and expand out from there as doses became more available.

If it works, though, you'd want to give it very widely, because it would get us to herd immunity very quickly and bring R0 down to almost nil. At that point people wouldn't need additional doses unless the virus returns via outbreaks/etc in limited areas, until a vaccine is possible.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 15, 2020, 10:46:34 AM
Presuming it works 100%, but initially is in limited availability, they would treat the sick first, those potentially exposed second, and by then the thing might be in such abeyance no wide scale treatment would be needed, or desirable.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 15, 2020, 08:37:38 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 15, 2020, 12:07:29 AM
I mean, I think there would be a gap between being uninterested and unable to break those stories. If they were simply uninterested, someone with an axe to grind would be throwing out all sorts of facts.

I think if the media has earned such distrust, it's because of a complex web of reasons because I think in some ways the media has changed less than people thing. It's had holes and blindspots for a long, long time (I've been reading a book about how a tyrant in NY was mostly unchecked because of an adoring media). But I think some of the distrust stems from the fact that these days we have an attitude that it's easier (and more enjoyable) to be highly cynical about something than have faith in something. And it's very hard to have a middle ground approach, like "I think some things are true, but have to be guarded and need to take a breath at every spicy headline or blood boiling thing I read because there's just so much out there in the world."

As for a mediot, I don't know if I have, and I suppose I'd need more specificity in the question. Is it an opinion babbler? What's the nature of the repeated incorrect thing? And how much do they talk? Like if they get two high-profile things wrong, I'll be skeptical of high-profile things. But if they're a news reader and they say "the governor said X tonight" and then I get video of the governor saying X, I'll probably believe that.
Was the tyrant someone like Boss Tweed or another similar nabob in the Tammany Hall organization?  Or someone more recent, like Jimmy Walker?
It's hard for me to believe that Harvey Weinstein escaped media scrutiny for so long because nobody was able to break the story.  Seems now like every woman in Hollywood knew about his activities.  I think it was more likely the case that nobody wanted, or dared, to break the story.
It's a good point that it can be easier to adopt a cynical attitude rather than to try to separate fact from fiction in every "news" story.  But the journalism community's continuous self-congratulation--along the lines of, "If we're not allowed to tell the truth, who will?"--makes it even easier than it should be.
On my point about mediots, I'm not referring to disbelieving newsreader A when he/she says that the governor said X even after I've seen video (not deceptively edited, which does happen at times) of the governor saying X.  I was thinking more of an opinion-giver who plays fast and loose with the facts, and with the interpretation of those facts.
But there are also a lot of straight-news people who are just incompetent at their jobs, who just don't get the story right.  I've mentioned this before, but I seldom see TV coverage of the military, or print coverage of the military outside of military journals, that doesn't contain significant errors of facts or of comprehension of the significance of those facts.
I am also quite sure that there is a widespread bias in the news media which perhaps wouldn't be so bad except that it's nearly all in one direction.  Except for talk radio, which is biased nearly all in the other direction, making all of it tiresome and more or less easy to disbelieve.
I know that among professional journalists there is something approaching reverence for the "golden age" of TV journalism--the 1960s.  But I was there for that, and I don't think it was golden.  Gilded, perhaps.  It was three commercial network news organizations (plus to an extent PBS news) reporting on the same stories from the same point of view.  The bias wasn't as extreme as I think the bias is now, but it was even more one-sided than today's bias is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 15, 2020, 08:55:00 PM
The development of a recombinant protein for use as a compassionate-care treatment for coronavirus patients is underway at the Biological Process Development Facility in the University of Nebraska–Lincoln’s College of Engineering.

The facility is working with a pre-clinical drug discovery company, using its proprietary genetic technology platform to produce a recombinant protein as a biotherapeutic for COVID-19 patients who may have few options left for treatment. According to Dennis Hensen, project manager, clinical trials for the treatment are being fast-tracked for a possible July start.

The facility, located in Othmer Hall on the university’s City Campus, specializes in process development and Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP) production of recombinant peptides and proteins that are suitable for non-clinical and clinical studies. The facility develops compliant manufacturing processes and test methods used in the production of drugs and other biologics, and produces bulk drug substances under GMP that are suitable for non-clinical and clinical trials. The facility also produces bulk intermediates for further processing and industrial enzymes for GMP manufacturing.

“The protein we’re producing will be used to provide a treatment option for people with advanced cases to hopefully prevent the need (for) or reduce the time on a ventilator,” said Scott Johnson, production manager, who emphasized that the treatment is not a vaccine candidate.


https://news.unl.edu/newsrooms/today/article/engineering-facility-producing-therapeutic-for-covid-19-patients/ (https://news.unl.edu/newsrooms/today/article/engineering-facility-producing-therapeutic-for-covid-19-patients/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 16, 2020, 07:50:55 AM
That company with the maybe cure had a very large jump in its stock price Friday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 16, 2020, 08:17:18 AM
Georgia reported a rise in cases yesterday, 795, the average has been about 650, I don't think that is significant.  Deaths reported were nominal.  Both trends are slightly down.  There has been no "surge" fortunately.

I keep noting the state is still largely closed and I don't see that changing but slowly.  I would guess a lot of smaller towns are changing faster than around me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 16, 2020, 10:59:03 AM
We've got relatively good news on COVID-19 in Oklahoma.

We've got the 8th-fewest cases per capita.  We've got a significantly lower rate of infections than some other states who are testing about the same percentage of people.  Oklahoma's tests/100k is 2,776, and its cases/100k is 123.  The same stats for California are 2,697 and 185, those for Georgia are 2,693 and 337, and those for Florida are 2,773 and 197.

We began Phase I of a gradual re-opening on 24 April.  Phase II began on 1 May.  So far, the number of hospitalizations is trending downward, as is the positive test percentage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 16, 2020, 11:00:09 AM
Sooner Magic?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 16, 2020, 11:11:04 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 16, 2020, 11:00:09 AM
Sooner Magic?
Well, there's always that possibility.
But I think that in this case it's just been a case of exercising reasonable caution at both state and local levels.
With, of course, the exceptional cases of dumbasses who show that they are not afraid by going unmasked and refusing to social-distance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 16, 2020, 01:07:29 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 16, 2020, 07:50:55 AM
That company with the maybe cure had a very large jump in its stock price Friday.
This is a kind of thing that slightly worries me.

I want a cure and I want progress. But when I see someone announce to the media "we maybe have something" and suddenly there's a gain on the financial side before delivery, creates some avenues for selling false hope. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 16, 2020, 01:26:21 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 16, 2020, 01:07:29 PM
This is a kind of thing that slightly worries me.

I want a cure and I want progress. But when I see someone announce to the media "we maybe have something" and suddenly there's a gain on the financial side before delivery, creates some avenues for selling false hope.
companies are obligated to its investors tell them about any new developments otherwise inside trading might take place

there is no way to avoid both the announcement of possible good news and its affect on stock price

the only bad that can come from this is if its not true and done to inflate stock price.  The SEC takes a very dim view of that sort of thing

and its a criminal offense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 16, 2020, 01:37:52 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 16, 2020, 01:26:21 PM
companies are obligated to its investors tell them about any new developments otherwise inside trading might take place

there is no way to avoid both the announcement of possible good news and its affect on stock price

the only bad that can come from this is if its not true and done to inflate stock price.  The SEC takes a very dim view of that sort of thing

and its a criminal offense.
So, that's an interesting angle. 

On the one hand, that seems possibly true, but also, I can't imagine it's so utterly ironclad. Like, Google is in the process of trying to do something with distance learning. But I don't think they've made a big deal of it yet. So clearly there's some timing element to it. 

And I'd assume the SEC needs pretty ironclad proof that someone inflated the stock price through deviant means.

Basically, I think there's a vast gray area. I assume a company has a lot of leeway in terms of announcing new developments/what it's working on and that goes toward the ability to sometimes put out info on something a company is simply hopeful about. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 16, 2020, 01:42:21 PM
Yeah, the company insiders have their stock purchases monitored closely.  They generally cannot buy or sell close to any public announcement.  They would likely have options that suddenly jumped in value of course, but they might not be vested.  And a large exercise of options gets reported .
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 16, 2020, 01:45:03 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 16, 2020, 01:37:52 PM
So, that's an interesting angle.

On the one hand, that seems possibly true, but also, I can't imagine it's so utterly ironclad. Like, Google is in the process of trying to do something with distance learning. But I don't think they've made a big deal of it yet. So clearly there's some timing element to it.

And I'd assume the SEC needs pretty ironclad proof that someone inflated the stock price through deviant means.

Basically, I think there's a vast gray area. I assume a company has a lot of leeway in terms of announcing new developments/what it's working on and that goes toward the ability to sometimes put out info on something a company is simply hopeful about.
this not just a development it was a breakthrough 

There have been negative responses to this

https://www.investors.com/news/technology/coronavirus-treatment-sorrento-says-it-has-cure/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo

T (https://www.investors.com/news/technology/coronavirus-treatment-sorrento-says-it-has-cure/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo)his really isnt negative but just the fact that it may not lead to anything once it has been tested on animals
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 16, 2020, 01:47:23 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 15, 2020, 08:37:38 PM
Was the tyrant someone like Boss Tweed or another similar nabob in the Tammany Hall organization?  Or someone more recent, like Jimmy Walker?
It's hard for me to believe that Harvey Weinstein escaped media scrutiny for so long because nobody was able to break the story.  Seems now like every woman in Hollywood knew about his activities.  I think it was more likely the case that nobody wanted, or dared, to break the story.
It's a good point that it can be easier to adopt a cynical attitude rather than to try to separate fact from fiction in every "news" story.  But the journalism community's continuous self-congratulation--along the lines of, "If we're not allowed to tell the truth, who will?"--makes it even easier than it should be.
On my point about mediots, I'm not referring to disbelieving newsreader A when he/she says that the governor said X even after I've seen video (not deceptively edited, which does happen at times) of the governor saying X.  I was thinking more of an opinion-giver who plays fast and loose with the facts, and with the interpretation of those facts.
But there are also a lot of straight-news people who are just incompetent at their jobs, who just don't get the story right.  I've mentioned this before, but I seldom see TV coverage of the military, or print coverage of the military outside of military journals, that doesn't contain significant errors of facts or of comprehension of the significance of those facts.
I am also quite sure that there is a widespread bias in the news media which perhaps wouldn't be so bad except that it's nearly all in one direction.  Except for talk radio, which is biased nearly all in the other direction, making all of it tiresome and more or less easy to disbelieve.
I know that among professional journalists there is something approaching reverence for the "golden age" of TV journalism--the 1960s.  But I was there for that, and I don't think it was golden.  Gilded, perhaps.  It was three commercial network news organizations (plus to an extent PBS news) reporting on the same stories from the same point of view.  The bias wasn't as extreme as I think the bias is now, but it was even more one-sided than today's bias is.
Robert Moses, who was Tammeny Adjacent. 

There's unfortunately a gap between able to break and knowing things. Like I'm sure there's some Oklahoma writers who know there are Sooners players getting paid. But for some reason or another, it's not out there. In Weinstein's case, he leveraged a lot of power on a lot of victims. I'm sure there were at least a few who for some reason or another told their stories and didn't have them publicly out there (in some cases I'm sure with threats to the outlets themselves from Weinstein's lawyers). That's a failure, but likely not one of wanting it covered up. 

Media self congratulation is generally bad. You can believe you're chasing truth while not getting all lathered up about it. There we agree. 

I'd also agree we focus more on the opinion givers because we simply lack the bandwidth to process everything. Likewise, it's a weird job because of how generalist it often is. I wouldn't disagree that a journalist might struggle with the finer details of military command or medicine or anything else. They talk to experts. They try to synthesize. It's often not quite what the experts would want. At times experts get good at speaking for themselves, but also can be unreliable narrators in their own situations (this is fascinating when it comes to sports. Like the minutia of football is just crazy, and we gloss over 99 percent of it all the time, and often coaches or players are uninterested in showing us what's happening)

In the argument of bias, I don't know that I'd argue it isn't there in some form or fashion, but I do think it's overstated to a massive degree. Some of this goes back to bandwidth. Most of news is deeply boring. If you live in a town with a TV station and a newspaper, you've got at minimum 50-60 stories a day locally, probably more. And the vast, vast majority of those are told with little of what we might see as out-and-out bias. Maybe subtle bias (this is interestingly true in terms pro-police stuff), letting a school superintendent say what's happening without a reliable counterbalance, that stuff. But we can't absorb all those stories. The ones that stand out are more vivid, especially the ones that trigger or offend. It's kind of like when you watch a TV sports broadcast. They talk for like 2.5 hours. And most people remember the 2-3 things that annoyed them.  

(I also agree the "golden age" is overrated. It was an era when people were more trusting. It was to a degree smaller and less noisy, but it wasn't that much more pure)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 16, 2020, 02:01:19 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 16, 2020, 01:45:03 PM
this not just a development it was a breakthrough

There have been negative responses to this

https://www.investors.com/news/technology/coronavirus-treatment-sorrento-says-it-has-cure/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo

T (https://www.investors.com/news/technology/coronavirus-treatment-sorrento-says-it-has-cure/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo)his really isnt negative but just the fact that it may not lead to anything once it has been tested on animals

OK. 

What makes it a "breakthrough"? If you're a medical person who can give me the expert breakdown as to what it means, I'd love to know. But at the moment, it's words in a press statement, which is fine, but isn't exactly hard proof.

Setting aside the part where the biotech investor type actually just calls it hype, if we're to say, "They found this thing in a lab in cells, but it might not lead to anything" what are we to make of the information? This thing exists. It might be a thing or it might not. So the reaction is just about a feeling of hope, not anything concrete. We don't even know if someone else did the same thing behind closed doors but wanted to wait for animal testing before announcing something hopeful to the press. 

This isn't to be negative, just a call for some moderation. Maybe this is the cure. But for the moment, it's just a nice headline. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 16, 2020, 02:09:18 PM
Yeah, at this point it has in vitro evidence for efficacy.  I think the "breakthrough" aspect is that it might be the first to get that far.

There is some reason for hope that it would work in the human body, but it also could be viewed by our immune system as foreign and taken out first.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 16, 2020, 02:24:05 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 16, 2020, 02:09:18 PM
Yeah, at this point it has in vitro evidence for efficacy.  I think the "breakthrough" aspect is that it might be the first to get that far.

There is some reason for hope that it would work in the human body, but it also could be viewed by our immune system as foreign and taken out first.
Im gonna follow this closely as it will be a big deal should animal testing render positive results
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 16, 2020, 02:35:08 PM
It also suggests the potential for broad antiviral treatments using this technique.  You generate antibodies specific to each type of virus, and whoosh.  I just wonder how our own immune system will respond to these antibodies.

The other good news is I THINK there would be little chance of a bad reaction to it, hopefully, like the cytokine explosion thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 16, 2020, 03:23:18 PM
Here is an additional article with additional info

https://www.pharmalive.com/sorrento-ids-antibody-against-covid-19-that-appears-100-percent-effective/ (https://www.pharmalive.com/sorrento-ids-antibody-against-covid-19-that-appears-100-percent-effective/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 16, 2020, 04:54:28 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 16, 2020, 01:47:23 PM
Robert Moses, who was Tammeny Adjacent.

There's unfortunately a gap between able to break and knowing things. Like I'm sure there's some Oklahoma writers who know there are Sooners players getting paid. But for some reason or another, it's not out there. In Weinstein's case, he leveraged a lot of power on a lot of victims. I'm sure there were at least a few who for some reason or another told their stories and didn't have them publicly out there (in some cases I'm sure with threats to the outlets themselves from Weinstein's lawyers). That's a failure, but likely not one of wanting it covered up.

Media self congratulation is generally bad. You can believe you're chasing truth while not getting all lathered up about it. There we agree.

I'd also agree we focus more on the opinion givers because we simply lack the bandwidth to process everything. Likewise, it's a weird job because of how generalist it often is. I wouldn't disagree that a journalist might struggle with the finer details of military command or medicine or anything else. They talk to experts. They try to synthesize. It's often not quite what the experts would want. At times experts get good at speaking for themselves, but also can be unreliable narrators in their own situations (this is fascinating when it comes to sports. Like the minutia of football is just crazy, and we gloss over 99 percent of it all the time, and often coaches or players are uninterested in showing us what's happening)

In the argument of bias, I don't know that I'd argue it isn't there in some form or fashion, but I do think it's overstated to a massive degree. Some of this goes back to bandwidth. Most of news is deeply boring. If you live in a town with a TV station and a newspaper, you've got at minimum 50-60 stories a day locally, probably more. And the vast, vast majority of those are told with little of what we might see as out-and-out bias. Maybe subtle bias (this is interestingly true in terms pro-police stuff), letting a school superintendent say what's happening without a reliable counterbalance, that stuff. But we can't absorb all those stories. The ones that stand out are more vivid, especially the ones that trigger or offend. It's kind of like when you watch a TV sports broadcast. They talk for like 2.5 hours. And most people remember the 2-3 things that annoyed them. 

(I also agree the "golden age" is overrated. It was an era when people were more trusting. It was to a degree smaller and less noisy, but it wasn't that much more pure)
I should have guessed Moses.  I just read something online a week or so ago about a movement he was part of in New York to lower the population density in apartment/tenement areas.  The result was high rise apartments in the middle of acreages of cleared-out former slums.  These areas were "in the city, but not part of the city."  The urban vitality and vibe was gone.  He did some good things, I think, but he did a lot of damage as well.  And for decades he was practically unchecked.
I think I got into him lately reading about the Valley of Ashes in The Great Gatsby.  Moses converted it into the 1939 World's Fair park.  It was an environmental mess when he started, and it was a different kind of environmental mess when he finished.
A thing that I think is overlooked in the bias issue is selection of what to report.  PBS news tends to be very careful in its reporting, but the stories it chooses to cover seldom reflect well on one side of the political divide.  Of course, bandwidth is part of it, as you mentioned.
Speaking of people being less trusting, I ran across this quote the other day:
“In 1964, 76 percent of Americans trusted government to do the right thing ‘just about always or most of the time.’ Today, fewer than 20 percent do. The former number is one reason [Lyndon] Johnson did so much; the latter is one consequence of his doing so.” ~ George F. Will
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 17, 2020, 08:56:12 AM
GA reported 440 news cases yesterday and 10 deaths.  The moving averages on new case reports is about 650.  There appears to be a slight decline in this figure over time, which coupled with increasing testing is pretty good news.   The moving average is 29 deaths reported per day, so 10 is a good figure, this bounces around quite  bit though.

I'm seeing more signs of actual "reopening" now, more traffic, a few more restaurants open, and hair salons opening.  The wife had her hair done yesterday.  My hair is longer than hers.  The weather has been very nice, starting to be warm.  The botanical garden opens Monday with "timed tickets" and only to members.  (They could have done this a month ago I think.)

I have seen one hotel open around us, you can't get in it without a reservation.  It's a brand new hotel, we toured it, the lobby is on the top floor along with a nice looking restaurant and outdoor deck, which we had meant to try when all the S happened.

Various and sundry sources reported GA would be swamped with cases by now and underwater, which fortunately has not happened.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 17, 2020, 09:09:25 AM
Good news on the declines, especially in deaths which is about the only reasonably significant and trackable stat we have right now.

I will say that across the USA and here in Texico, typically, the reported deaths are low on Sat, Sun, and even Mon, and then usually high on Tuesday, as they catch up on the weekend's reporting.  So I've been looking at Tuesday peaks to see if they're trending down over time.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 17, 2020, 09:11:56 AM
Quote from: utee94 on May 17, 2020, 09:09:25 AM
Good news on the declines, especially in deaths which is about the only reasonably significant and trackable stat we have right now.

I will say that across the USA and here in Texico, typically, the reported deaths are low on Sat, Sun, and even Mon, and then usually high on Tuesday, as they catch up on the weekend's reporting.  So I've been looking at Tuesday peaks to see if they're trending down over time.


Yeah, and last Sunday was the first day <1K deaths since late March. Monday almost came in below 1K as well. 

7-day moving average on deaths is definitely down quite a bit from the peak. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 17, 2020, 09:25:22 AM
Quote from: utee94 on May 17, 2020, 09:09:25 AM
Good news on the declines, especially in deaths which is about the only reasonably significant and trackable stat we have right now.

I will say that across the USA and here in Texico, typically, the reported deaths are low on Sat, Sun, and even Mon, and then usually high on Tuesday, as they catch up on the weekend's reporting.  So I've been looking at Tuesday peaks to see if they're trending down over time.


I track national deaths on a weekly basis

my data shows a decline for three weeks in a row and it appears might be four weeks in a row

as I said before I have not seen this reported elsewhere
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 17, 2020, 09:27:49 AM
perhaps you should notify Fox News
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 17, 2020, 09:28:09 AM
I set up my own spreadsheet and a couple days later the paper here started reporting 7 day moving averages, which is why I did the spreadsheet.  I'm also doing 10 days.

There is a lot of bounce in dailies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 17, 2020, 09:36:55 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 17, 2020, 09:28:09 AM
I set up my own spreadsheet and a couple days later the paper here started reporting 7 day moving averages, which is why I did the spreadsheet.  I'm also doing 10 days.

There is a lot of bounce in dailies.
I agree

Here are my last 4 week death totals

Wk Ending
4/22          19133

4/29          13979

5/6            12630

5/13          10924         
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 17, 2020, 08:05:22 PM
The pandemic will permanently change the auto industry
Jack Ewing - The New York Times - Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Some automakers may emerge stronger, others too weak to survive on their own. Factories will shut down. The pressure to go electric could become more intense.

People may travel less now that they have discovered how much they can get done from home. Or they may commute more by car to avoid jostling with others on crowded buses and trains.

The auto industry was bracing for a brutal year even before the coronavirus idled factories, closed dealerships and sent sales into a free fall. Now, things are about to get really Darwinian: The industry is expected to realign in ways that could have a profound effect on the eight million people worldwide who work for vehicle manufacturers.

It took almost a decade for car sales in the European Union to recover from the recession that began in 2008. The United States market took about five years to bounce back, but sales have been flat since 2015. Explosive growth in China initially helped compensate, but the market has been in decline since 2018. As Volkswagen, Daimler, Fiat Chrysler and other companies slowly restart their assembly lines, people who work in the car business are beginning to ponder what the repercussions of this crisis will be.

“We shouldn’t be too optimistic and expect that in 2021 everything is going to go back to normal as if nothing happened,” Ola Källenius, the chief executive of Daimler, told reporters during a recent conference call. The pandemic, he said, “will probably have a huge effect on the economy and we have to prepare.”

Here’s a look at what to expect.

Factory closures and labor strife.

Automakers worldwide had at least 20 percent more factory capacity than they needed before the coronavirus hit, analysts say. That idle manufacturing space cost them money without producing any profit. As sales plummet further, shutting down underused plants may be a matter of survival.

“Some of those big plants in Europe are going to really struggle,” said Peter Wells, director of the Center for Automotive Industry Research at Cardiff Business School in Wales. The going will be especially tough for the companies that make smaller cars, which tend to be less profitable, like Fiat, Renault or Volkswagen’s SEAT brand

In Europe, it’s impossible to close a factory without labor strife and political resistance because so many jobs are at stake. Severance payments to workers and other costs can make it as expensive to shutter a plant as it is to build one.

“It’s about the politics more than the economics,” Mr. Wells said.

In an example of the kind of fights that may lie ahead, workers shut down a Nissan plant in Barcelona only two days after it opened in early May, demanding that the Japanese company commit to maintaining its presence in Spain.

Electric cars could come sooner (maybe).

Sales of electric cars have been surprisingly resilient even as lockdowns gutted sales of gasoline and diesel powered vehicles.

In March, as much of Europe went into lockdown, car sales on the continent fell by more than half. But registrations of battery-powered cars surged 23 percent, according to Matthias Schmidt, an analyst in Berlin who tracks the industry.

In April, lockdowns caught up with electric cars, too, and their sales fell 31 percent, according to Mr. Schmidt’s estimate. But that was nothing compared with the total European car market, which plummeted 80 percent.

It is not clear whether the surge in electric car sales is a trend or a quirk. Many of the electric vehicles registered early this year had been ordered earlier, Mr. Schmidt said. Carmakers may have taken their time delivering cars that were bought in 2019 so the vehicles would help meet stricter European Union limits on carbon dioxide emissions that took effect in 2020

Carmakers may not be as motivated to sell electric cars in coming months. They will be tempted to instead push S.U.V.s, which generate far greater profits and are easier to sell now that fuel prices have plunged.

Much will depend on government incentives and regulations. Europe and China are doing more to promote electric cars than the United States under the Trump administration. Battery-powered cars are still much more expensive than gasoline vehicles. In a recession, fewer people may be able to afford them without subsidies

“Especially in this period, they are looking to sell the most profitable cars as long as they meet the targets,” Mr. Schmidt said.

The big unknown is whether the crisis will change the kinds of cars that buyers want. People may emerge with a greater appreciation for the cleaner air that was a side effect of the lockdowns. They may be more willing to invest in a vehicle that produces no tailpipe emissions.

“I was never able to breathe such clean air in Torino,” said Silvio Pietro Angori, chief executive of the Italian auto design firm Pininfarina, which is in the Italian automaking capital. “I think: ‘Wow, that is great. How can I keep it?’”

An opening for start-ups.

Turmoil in the market could be good for electric car start-ups like Byton and Lucid, which have proliferated after Tesla showed it was possible to challenge the traditional carmakers. The start-ups have a chance to attack the market while the established companies are struggling.

“The spaces in the market might open up a bit,” Mr. Wells said. “Once the fractures start to emerge, things start to happen.”

For other challengers, the pandemic has been a huge setback. Ride-hailing services like Uber and Lyft, which threatened to make car ownership obsolete for urban residents, have suffered because everyone is staying home. The Silicon Valley companies that promised self-driving cars by 2020 are still years away, and the pandemic is interfering with the human road testing they need to perfect their technology.

Get ’em while they’re cheap.

Few sectors get less love from investors than the old-line carmakers. Shares in Renault, for example, have fallen 70 percent in the last year, and the stock market values the company at just 5.7 billion euros, or $6.2 billion. (Billionaires like Jeff Bezos, Michael Bloomberg and Elon Musk are worth far more as individuals than Renault with its 180,000 workers and sales of 3.8 million cars last year.)

There may be one group of investors willing to overlook the high risk and meager profits of car making. Chinese investors could see rock-bottom valuations as an opportunity to get a foothold on the continent.

Geely Holding, a carmaker based in Hangzhou, set a precedent when it bought Volvo Cars from Ford in 2010. Geely also own 8 percent of Volvo AB, a Swedish truck maker that is separate from the car company. Geely’s chairman, Li Shufu, owns almost 10 percent of Daimler. The Chinese automaker BAIC Group owns another 5 percent of Daimler.

Further incursions by Chinese investors are certain to meet political resistance. Germany is expected to pass legislation making it easier to block foreign acquisitions. France has passed similar legislation, and has significant sway over Renault because it owns 15 percent of the shares.

But foreign investment might be welcome if it helps preserve jobs. Geely has revived Volvo Cars and the region around its home base in Goteborg, Sweden.

Pair up or perish.

Carmakers will face even more pressure to spread around the cost of developing electric cars and other new technologies. Existing partnerships, such as the one between Volkswagen and Ford Motor to develop autonomous driving software, could be expanded.

“It’s pretty likely that we will see former enemies or former competitors start to team up with each other,” said Axel Schmidt, a senior managing director at the consulting firm Accenture who focuses on the auto industry.

These alliances, though crucial, are tough to manage. Renault has struggled to overcome tensions with its longtime partner, Nissan.

Rethinking globalization.

The pandemic exposed just how interconnected the world is and how a factory closure in one part of the world can shut down an assembly line in a different hemisphere.

“What we are all learning, and I talk to a lot of managers and C.E.O.s in Germany, is that we all have to rethink our logistics and supply chains,” said Olaf Berlien, chief executive of Osram, a German maker of lighting products for autos and other uses.

“Because of the price pressure that we are all under, we took the cheapest provider wherever in the world it might have been,” Mr. Berlien said. “We undervalued the provider who was just around the corner.”

Others are not so sure that carmakers will be more willing to buy local. Mr. Källenius of Daimler said supply chains were already built to withstand disruption and had stood up well during the crisis. Not a single Mercedes went unbuilt because of a supply chain problem, he said.

“I wouldn’t come too quickly to the conclusion that we have to regionalize supply chains,” Mr. Källenius said. “The globalization that we have achieved in the last 20 years has led to enormous productivity gains. I would see it as a mistake to back away from that.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 17, 2020, 08:51:19 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 17, 2020, 08:05:22 PM
The pandemic will permanently change the auto industry
Jack Ewing - The New York Times - Wednesday, May 13, 2020



“I wouldn’t come too quickly to the conclusion that we have to regionalize supply chains,” Mr. Källenius said. “The globalization that we have achieved in the last 20 years has led to enormous productivity gains. I would see it as a mistake to back away from that.”

So in other words just let China continue to own us as long as we make money
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 17, 2020, 09:49:33 PM
Well, that's a German guy talking there, 320.

And I think China owning so much of our debt, which continues to spiral deeper and deeper into the red, that is a much bigger problem than having Chinese producers in Daimler-Benz' supply chain.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 17, 2020, 09:56:44 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 17, 2020, 09:49:33 PM
Well, that's a German guy talking there, 320.

And I think China owning so much of our debt, which continues to spiral deeper and deeper into the red, that is a much bigger problem than having Chinese producers in Daimler-Benz' supply chain.
China has too much of our supply chain and we better do something about it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 18, 2020, 07:01:38 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 17, 2020, 09:49:33 PM
Well, that's a German guy talking there, 320.

And I think China owning so much of our debt, which continues to spiral deeper and deeper into the red, that is a much bigger problem than having Chinese producers in Daimler-Benz' supply chain.
Debt what does it even mean anymore.Years ago the USA forgave the Chnese War Dept,now our gov't is suppose to pony up to them at some point in time - stiiff them.If this recent dilema hasn't taught anything self sufficiency is the route to take.And does anyone really think the CCP is goint to play by any rules after this - that's a pipe dream.Buy local,buy American,drain the swamp,clean the slate
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 18, 2020, 07:07:16 AM
I have seen this sort of thing play out before, often with China.  Foreign Country X "offends us", so we declare our intent never to engage with them again and take draconian steps like renaming a food "Freedom Fries" to show our displeasure.

And then, a couple years later, it's all forgotten.  We go back to buying the cheapest whatever we can find in Wally World without paying attention to where it was made.  For a while, that foreign country might drop back a bit and only send parts to be assembled in say Vietnam so the label doesn't say "China" and then in time, even that stops.

So, maybe "we" put tariffs on Chinese goods and dump that recent trade deal, OK fine, and China just makes part for a while instead of finished products.  And we buy stuff from Vietnam or Thailand or whatever instead, for a while.

I don't know what "debt" means any more either, and that's a good thing as we have so much of it, I suspect this last tranche was picked up by the Fed, which is another astounding feature of our monetary system.  The Fed is quietly the most powerful entity in the country, one could argue, and they aren't even officially part of the government.  I'm not anti-Fed, I'm just amazed at the power they have, quietly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 18, 2020, 08:16:26 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 18, 2020, 07:07:16 AM
I have seen this sort of thing play out before, often with China.  Foreign Country X "offends us", so we declare our intent never to engage with them again and take draconian steps like renaming a food "Freedom Fries" to show our displeasure.

And then, a couple years later, it's all forgotten.  We go back to buying the cheapest whatever we can find in Wally World without paying attention to where it was made.  For a while, that foreign country might drop back a bit and only send parts to be assembled in say Vietnam so the label doesn't say "China" and then in time, even that stops.

So, maybe "we" put tariffs on Chinese goods and dump that recent trade deal, OK fine, and China just makes part for a while instead of finished products.  And we buy stuff from Vietnam or Thailand or whatever instead, for a while.

I don't know what "debt" means any more either, and that's a good thing as we have so much of it, I suspect this last tranche was picked up by the Fed, which is another astounding feature of our monetary system.  The Fed is quietly the most powerful entity in the country, one could argue, and they aren't even officially part of the government.  I'm not anti-Fed, I'm just amazed at the power they have, quietly.

Sure, this happens.  Occasionally though, it doesn't.  I'm thinking about Cuba specifically.  Beyond some initial period of perhaps a few years, those policies were arguably misplaced, and yet they persisted for decades.

I agree that consumers and corporations might continue in the race to the bottom, so I suppose it really depends on whether or not the federal government steps in with a mandate to the American people and American corporations, and how strong that mandate is.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 18, 2020, 08:20:37 AM
I'm starting to follow Florida on this thing. Big spike on Saturday, but I'm thinking that was the result of under-reporting on Friday? Not sure what today's number will bring, but I think tomorrow's reporting will be more significant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 18, 2020, 09:00:17 AM
The numbers I watch will spike on a given day and then be back down for four days.  I suspect some of that is due to time of reporting, if you report at 11:59 versus 12:01.  I only look at moving averages, trends.  The "activity" level around me is trending up, rather slowly.  I went to Kroger this morning around 7:30 AM and there was almost no traffic.  I would normally not go anywhere at 7:30 AM in a car.  The "work from home" suburbanites are liking it I think and finding excuses to keep doing it.  

The folks I knew who "worked from home" one day a week basically checked their emails every 2 hours and messed around the rest of the time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 18, 2020, 09:07:44 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 18, 2020, 08:20:37 AM
I'm starting to follow Florida on this thing. Big spike on Saturday, but I'm thinking that was the result of under-reporting on Friday? Not sure what today's number will bring, but I think tomorrow's reporting will be more significant.

I haven't followed Florida specifically, but in Texas and national reporting, the under-reporting tends to happen on Saturday, Sunday, and sometimes Monday, resulting in big spikes on Tuesdays.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 18, 2020, 09:09:14 AM
Quote from: utee94 on May 18, 2020, 09:07:44 AM
I haven't followed Florida specifically, but in Texas and national reporting, the under-reporting tends to happen on Saturday, Sunday, and sometimes Monday, resulting in big spikes on Tuesdays.

Yes, I've noticed that, when I was closely following Illinois.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 18, 2020, 09:11:48 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 17, 2020, 09:49:33 PM
Well, that's a German guy talking there, 320.

And I think China owning so much of our debt, which continues to spiral deeper and deeper into the red, that is a much bigger problem than having Chinese producers in Daimler-Benz' supply chain.
China, as of a decade ago or so, has tried not to add US Debt. Their overall holding of US debt has diminished since 2010 and their PERCENTAGE of all US debt holdings has dropped roughly in half--because we've racked up more over that decade. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 18, 2020, 09:12:41 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 18, 2020, 09:00:17 AM

The folks I knew who "worked from home" one day a week basically checked their emails every 2 hours and messed around the rest of the time.
If anything, I'm more productive at home. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 18, 2020, 09:17:49 AM
I was not impressed with the work habits of most of my coworkers either at work or at home.  Some of them would be more productive if they stayed home and never logged in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 18, 2020, 09:28:10 AM
Sundays have been the slowest day, traditionally, for both new cases and deaths reported. 

Yesterday was higher for both than the previous Sunday. Cases haven't been universally down on consecutive Sundays before this, but yesterday was the first time we've had more deaths on a Sunday than the previous Sunday since early April.

That may mean nothing--our 7-day moving average is still downward, and yesterday's total was also only the second day below 1K deaths since Mar 30. When the numbers are smaller, this might just be noise. But given many of the openings were around May 1, this is about the right time to be looking for inflection points in the curve.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 18, 2020, 09:35:00 AM
Georgia was allowed to "reopen" (partially) April 23.  The numbers have continued to trend down, no disaster, yet.  BUT, the state did not really "reopen", some places did with distancing of course, but being allowed to reopen is not the same as reopening.

Around me, we might be a quarter open?  Every large venue remains closed, very bar, night club, etc., and most hotels are closed (no business anyway).  Most restaurants are take out only still, or closed.  The park was pretty full yesterday but folks are maintaining distance pretty well.

So, I didn't expect any surge in cases and there has not yet been one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 18, 2020, 09:39:58 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/18/moderna-reports-positive-data-on-early-stage-coronavirus-vaccine-trial.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/18/moderna-reports-positive-data-on-early-stage-coronavirus-vaccine-trial.html)

Positive news on the vaccine front.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 18, 2020, 09:44:20 AM
Here's an interactive dashboard where you can view several metrics by state.  I can't vouch for the sources or the veracity of the data but I don't have any reason to question it either, seems to line up for Texas at least.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/COVID-19SeeYourState/YourStateKeys (https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/COVID-19SeeYourState/YourStateKeys)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 18, 2020, 10:09:59 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 18, 2020, 09:11:48 AM
China, as of a decade ago or so, has tried not to add US Debt. Their overall holding of US debt has diminished since 2010 and their PERCENTAGE of all US debt holdings has dropped roughly in half--because we've racked up more over that decade.
That's very comforting, bwarb!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 18, 2020, 10:27:34 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 18, 2020, 10:09:59 AM
That's very comforting, bwarb!
Not really. I think their long-term goal is to have the yuan replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency, hence they're trying to limit their exposure. It's extremely beneficial to the US that our dollar is the world's reserve currency, and losing that status would be a major problem for us. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 18, 2020, 10:48:45 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 18, 2020, 10:27:34 AM
Not really. I think their long-term goal is to have the yuan replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency, hence they're trying to limit their exposure. It's extremely beneficial to the US that our dollar is the world's reserve currency, and losing that status would be a major problem for us.
I think they're going to have a tougher time now, pushing their agenda globally, than they would have before the world began calling them out for dubious behavior with respect to their notice and response on the novel coronavirus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 18, 2020, 11:07:14 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 18, 2020, 10:27:34 AM
Not really. I think their long-term goal is to have the yuan replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency, hence they're trying to limit their exposure. It's extremely beneficial to the US that our dollar is the world's reserve currency, and losing that status would be a major problem for us.
I wasn't really serious about it being comforting.  I think you are right about their long-term goal.  I think it goes beyond that.  They want to become the world hegemon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 18, 2020, 11:07:41 AM
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2476%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Fc2dc7af6-8c8f-42a7-9f65-5d83e56e0ced_1238x1238.png&t=1589808771&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1ce6-150001014b00&sig=KH3HFhOXJgdVqEpxh0bArQ--~C) (http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUduOpSAQ_JrDm0Zuig88TCbZ3zBcWg8zCg60OXv26xf1aRLSVDpFVdPlDMKS8lvvqSA5CuQpeC3YyAc6kIo8VVKRUKY5A2wmrBrzAWQ_7BqcwZDi-YBJSUfy1NRx4bmgA1jhxo7PTgivnICR9xx6QU6byRw-QHSgU1zflzBZ9RNxLw_-8WB_6nE-tuWwBY37bl3aaitsZoF6z4DueVKmNWwBH-xzroqYKvi5Af9YUvKVcmsyearKU7cWe7hvQIDcQCetdUo01hjeCD5AM0qqGuMtZxaGYVSiLbw1m_mXonmVe5Cqcf_-gtdU5YKOeTeYuW-UU3MjmBmace5lI73iIHvoHPiJMq7-nqXd40KCZh3ruupKKe-Eamk7I75UEuiOr4fotoX92gPJOpvoW5vDspRKKNYta7JmbSPgGctUWdsRA74niMau4O_E8I74CgDfO-gIr7ICIuS7eebe96ITpBr6VLOOeks5hrj4UHZTt_4fFN630Q)



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 18, 2020, 12:00:17 PM
Just heard an AIS insurance radio commercial talking to a "customer" who had saved money from insurance and was talking about how he could spend it.

Dream vacation, VIP concert tickets, going to Disneyland...

Uhh, hey AIS, are you tone-deaf much? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 18, 2020, 12:42:08 PM
What does it mean being the world's reserve currency?

Why does that help us?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 18, 2020, 12:52:05 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 18, 2020, 12:42:08 PM
What does it mean being the world's reserve currency?

Why does that help us?


Because we can print money.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 18, 2020, 12:58:01 PM
Everyone prints money.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 18, 2020, 01:20:55 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 18, 2020, 12:42:08 PM
What does it mean being the world's reserve currency?

Why does that help us?
We're seen as a very stable currency, and T-Bills are seen as one of the safest investments in the entire world.

So when we buy imports from other countries, and we send money to foreign producers, those foreign producers can either buy American products or they can convert the currency into their local currency to buy local products. 

If they buy American products or services, great, we get exports and the money comes back. Of course, that increases demand for American products (raising prices) and returns the money back into our economy (raising inflation). But it also increases employment because we're producing/providing something.

If they exchange dollars for local currency, their own government will retain that money in a sovereign wealth fund and/or buy American debt. If they're retaining it as cash assets, basically it's the equivalent of them stuffing it under a mattress--it hides any inflationary pressures of that money existing. Essentially if they buy our debt, it reduces the interest rates we need to charge to sell debt (making our debt cheaper) allowing us to provide government services at a lower societal cost to us. 

And if the dollar is the world's reserve currency, it inextricably links other nations to our success. If they're holding our dollars or our debt, they don't want to see our economy fail. If we go hyperinflationary, their dollar reserves are worthless. If we have an issue and renege on our debt, their T-bills are worthless. So they win when we succeed.

That's why China wants to displace us as the world's reserve currency. It will tie other nations' economies to their success.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 18, 2020, 02:29:07 PM
that's also why China isn't buying USA debt as they were back in the day.

They don't want us to succeed.  They want to destroy our economy and raise their own
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 18, 2020, 02:35:22 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 18, 2020, 02:29:07 PM
that's also why China isn't buying USA debt as they were back in the day.

They don't want us to succeed.  They want to destroy our economy and raise their own
I'm not entirely sure on the bolded part. They want to ECLIPSE our economy, and DISPLACE us as the economic hegemon of the world, but they want us to be a market for their goods. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 18, 2020, 02:36:32 PM
yeah, probably a bit strong and a reach
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 18, 2020, 05:24:38 PM
Texas begins Phase 2

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/gov-abbotts-monday-announcement-details-states-continued-safe-and-strategic-reopening/ (https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/gov-abbotts-monday-announcement-details-states-continued-safe-and-strategic-reopening/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 18, 2020, 07:00:24 PM
I got a haircut a few minutes ago!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 18, 2020, 07:59:52 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 18, 2020, 02:29:07 PM
that's also why China isn't buying USA debt as they were back in the day.

They don't want us to succeed.  They want to destroy our economy and raise their own
Sounds familiar.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on May 19, 2020, 02:21:30 AM
I should have awakened on Saturday at 6 a.m. and set my appointment at 8 a.m. and brought my surgical masks for my barber. I am so tired on Saturdays. My day to sleep in. I did. 

Now I don't know when I will get a hair cut. 

As of today, I think I will head over to the drug store, and pick up Brylcreem and orange face  paint. My hair is almost long enuf to comb back. I don't think the secret service would stop me. I can take over at 1600 Pennsylvania. I will rule over all of you, including you, and you, and you and you and you -- on this forum. And, squash each of you, as I fire every whistle blower, and fire each and every one who thinks inspectors general apply to the executive branch.

If you like this rant, like it. I must be liked by allllllllll !
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 19, 2020, 09:16:02 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on May 19, 2020, 02:21:30 AM
I should have awakened on Saturday at 6 a.m. and set my appointment at 8 a.m. and brought my surgical masks for my barber. I am so tired on Saturdays. My day to sleep in. I did.

Now I don't know when I will get a hair cut.

As of today, I think I will head over to the drug store, and pick up Brylcreem and orange face  paint. My hair is almost long enuf to comb back. I don't think the secret service would stop me. I can take over at 1600 Pennsylvania. I will rule over all of you, including you, and you, and you and you and you -- on this forum. And, squash each of you, as I fire every whistle blower, and fire each and every one who thinks inspectors general apply to the executive branch.

If you like this rant, like it. I must be liked by allllllllll !
thanks for stopping by and dropping that turd now get outta my yard
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 19, 2020, 10:44:43 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on May 19, 2020, 02:21:30 AM
I should have awakened on Saturday at 6 a.m. and set my appointment at 8 a.m. and brought my surgical masks for my barber. I am so tired on Saturdays. My day to sleep in. I did.

Now I don't know when I will get a hair cut.

As of today, I think I will head over to the drug store, and pick up Brylcreem and orange face  paint. My hair is almost long enuf to comb back. I don't think the secret service would stop me. I can take over at 1600 Pennsylvania. I will rule over all of you, including you, and you, and you and you and you -- on this forum. And, squash each of you, as I fire every whistle blower, and fire each and every one who thinks inspectors general apply to the executive branch.

If you like this rant, like it. I must be liked by allllllllll !
(https://i.imgur.com/bvBjjy9.gif)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on May 19, 2020, 01:12:41 PM
Tom Brady has got your Immunity Pills for just $45

https://www.orlandoweekly.com/Blogs/archives/2020/05/18/as-coronavirus-cases-climb-in-florida-tom-brady-is-selling-45-immunity-vitamins (https://www.orlandoweekly.com/Blogs/archives/2020/05/18/as-coronavirus-cases-climb-in-florida-tom-brady-is-selling-45-immunity-vitamins)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 19, 2020, 01:30:01 PM
Scientists:  We don't know yet.
Everyone:
(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcRLkuIHNhyMvRElqb9ureHW-UptfoRVSuToZDae9XLa4r-pck45&usqp=CAU)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 03:21:36 PM
Hospitalizations for the novel coronavirus stood at just above 1,025 as of Monday, the most recent data available. It was 1,500 as of May 2, the date that GEMA first reported the measure. It began to publish the number on its daily situation report (https://gema.georgia.gov/emergencies-0/coronavirus) to give the public a clearer picture of the availability of hospital resources, a spokesperson for the agency said.
GEMA gets its figures from the Georgia Department of Public Health. It does not include those hospitalized who are being investigated for suspected novel coronavirus infections.
The AJC is now tracking current hospitalizations on its COVID-19 data dashboard (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/) to give readers a clearer picture of coronavirus in Georgia.

ADVERTISING

Promote health. Save lives. Serve the vulnerable. Visit who.int (https://ad.doubleclick.net/ddm/trackclk/N1297696.3675797TEADS.COM/B24079047.272003249;dc_trk_aid=466771834;dc_trk_cid=131592044;dc_lat=;dc_rdid=;tag_for_child_directed_treatment=;tfua=)


»NEW DASHBOARD: The AJC’s redesigned page of real-time charts tracking the virus (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/)



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 19, 2020, 03:35:18 PM
It looks like GA's cases are decreasing even though testing is increasing

If so then Ga is looking very good
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 03:43:48 PM
New reported cases and deaths are edging down.  The "experts" predicted a disaster by mid-May.  I pointed out that being allowed to open is not the same thing as opening.  The area around me remains mostly shuttered, but is slowly opening.

The hospital usage figure is obviously good to know.

I would not be shocked to see an upward trend in a few weeks, hopefully from a level lower than today's.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 19, 2020, 04:51:33 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/NyeS6LF.png)

Per Cincy's discussion about how reopening doesn't necessarily mean businesses all actually open or that customers patronize them...

I don't know what is different in Oklahoma to make it such an outlier. 


Quote
About the data

This data shows year-over-year seated diners at restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year. For example, we’d compare Tuesday of week 11 in 2020 to Tuesday of week 11 in 2019. Only states or cities with 50+ restaurants in the sample are included. All such restaurants on the OpenTable network in either period are included.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 19, 2020, 04:56:06 PM
Well, OK does have a lot of reservations......

:88:
I'll be here all week.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 19, 2020, 04:57:46 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 03:43:48 PM
New reported cases and deaths are edging down.  The "experts" predicted a disaster by mid-May. 
Can you please stop this shit?

We all took measures to avoid disaster and it seems to have worked.  That's the whole point.  It's really hard to respect someone who shits on experts.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 19, 2020, 05:05:38 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 19, 2020, 04:57:46 PM
Can you please stop this shit?

We all took measures to avoid disaster and it seems to have worked.  That's the whole point.  It's really hard to respect someone who shits on experts. 
That's not what he's saying. He's saying the experts said that reopening would be a disaster, and reopening hasn't been a disaster. 

This isn't about the first point where we all locked down and avoided a disaster, because we can't go back and prove the counterfactual that if we hadn't closed everything would be fine. It's about the here and now, where states which are reopening aren't seeing some huge spike in cases and deaths, even though that was predicted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 19, 2020, 05:16:21 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 19, 2020, 04:56:06 PM
Well, OK does have a lot of reservations......

:88:
I'll be here all week.
Only two.  Osage and Choctaw.

I can't account for the huge disparity.  Our caseload and mortality numbers are trending down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 19, 2020, 05:20:17 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 19, 2020, 04:57:46 PM
Can you please stop this shit?

We all took measures to avoid disaster and it seems to have worked.  That's the whole point.  It's really hard to respect someone who shits on experts. 
I believe he's talking about Georgia's "reopening" that occurred about 3.5 weeks ago.

I don't know whether I saw any particular "experts" predicting disaster by mid-May as a result of that action, but I did see various articles with ominous warnings that Georgia was reopening too soon.  So far they seem to be holding steady.  I'd be looking for hospitalizations here, rather than increased cases, since testing still remains somewhat of a challenge.

Edit: Somehow missed bwar's post, so yeah, what he said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 19, 2020, 05:20:23 PM
Okay, if I misunderstood, that's fine.  


But still, honestly, these numbers like two weeks and 6 feet apart aren't hard-and-fast, precise measures.  Just because there hasn't been a spike exactly 14 days later doesn't mean anything yet.

Every place you go has stickers and tape and ropes every 6 feet.....when that's largely an arbitrary distance.  When a sneeze can send particles 40+ feet, we're standing around 6 feet apart like it's the next best thing to a hazmat suit.  

Cincy, I appreciate your optimism.  It's a good thing.  But I just don't want the general consensus to be that we're out of the woods when we're still surrounded by trees.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 19, 2020, 05:21:11 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 19, 2020, 05:16:21 PM
Only two.  Osage and Choctaw.

I can't account for the huge disparity.  Our caseload and mortality numbers are trending down.
Doesn't OK have lots of land classified as something other than 'normal' and 'reservation'?  I'd like to know more about that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 19, 2020, 05:21:54 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 19, 2020, 05:20:17 PM
I'd be looking for hospitalizations here, rather than increased cases, since testing still remains somewhat of a challenge.

Wouldn't it be nice if testing wasn't such a challenge?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 05:24:58 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 19, 2020, 04:57:46 PM
Can you please stop this shit?

We all took measures to avoid disaster and it seems to have worked.  That's the whole point.  It's really hard to respect someone who shits on experts. 
I am providing factual information, and no, I don't plan to stop.  Sorry if facts annoy you.

I also noted that when the governor flipped the switch, the state did not, and much has remained closed.  That is starting to change, and I would not be shocked if our numbers here get worse over time.

The "experts" calculated based on everything suddenly being open.  I noted at the time that was not happening.

And I would think these facts would be viewed as good news with that caveat above.

And, as an expert in some areas, I don't care whether you respect me or not, obviously.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 19, 2020, 05:39:01 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 19, 2020, 05:21:11 PM
Doesn't OK have lots of land classified as something other than 'normal' and 'reservation'?  I'd like to know more about that.
There's a lot of land owned by the various tribes.  And on that land, tribal law sometimes takes precedence over state law.  Card-carrying tribal members can buy tribal license plates.

I have no particular expertise in this area.  This might interest you.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oklahoma_Tribal_Statistical_Area (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oklahoma_Tribal_Statistical_Area)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 19, 2020, 05:47:33 PM
I thought it was interesting how that bumbled Georgia chart came and went. It seems there's a certain sticking power for worry about over counting vs undercounting. 

Not saying it should cast high-end doubt about such numbers, but that in some moments, it might have. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 19, 2020, 06:15:13 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 19, 2020, 04:57:46 PM
Can you please stop this shit?

We all took measures to avoid disaster and it seems to have worked.  That's the whole point.  It's really hard to respect someone who shits on experts. 
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 19, 2020, 05:20:23 PM
Okay, if I misunderstood, that's fine. 


But still, honestly, these numbers like two weeks and 6 feet apart aren't hard-and-fast, precise measures.  Just because there hasn't been a spike exactly 14 days later doesn't mean anything yet.

Every place you go has stickers and tape and ropes every 6 feet.....when that's largely an arbitrary distance.  When a sneeze can send particles 40+ feet, we're standing around 6 feet apart like it's the next best thing to a hazmat suit. 

Cincy, I appreciate your optimism.  It's a good thing.  But I just don't want the general consensus to be that we're out of the woods when we're still surrounded by trees.

I'm confused by your statements.  The experts tell us to maintain social distance of 6 feet.  Should we or should we not listen to the experts?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/social-distancing.html

 (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/social-distancing.html)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 19, 2020, 06:16:30 PM
When a source lists "experts" it would be nice to know a bit more about this term

is it a large group of "experts"  is it one or two folks?

what are their qualifications and/or experience as an expert?

mostly, what is their agenda or who is paying them for their expertise?

I suppose I could be considered an expert in the field of Budweiser 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 19, 2020, 06:17:32 PM
in Europe, they use two meters as the expert opinion
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 19, 2020, 06:18:16 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 19, 2020, 06:16:30 PM
When a source lists "experts" it would be nice to know a bit more about this term

is it a large group of "experts"  is it one or two folks?

what are their qualifications and/or experience as an expert?

mostly, what is their agenda or who is paying them for their expertise?

I suppose I could be considered an expert in the field of Budweiser
Don't limit yourself my friend.  I'd be willing to bet that you are an expert in MANY kinds of bad beer!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 19, 2020, 06:22:45 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 19, 2020, 06:17:32 PM
in Europe, they use two meters as the expert opinion
Yup, that's a little over 6 feet.  In Australia, they're using 1.5 meters, which is a little under 6 feet.

It's not arbitrary, though.  There's been study that indicates that staying beyond 1.8 meters reduces the likelihood of infectious spreading of airborne viruses.

It certainly doesn't guarantee you won't get sick, and I don't know a single person that believes standing 6 feet apart is anywhere near as effective as a hazmat suit.  It's a measurement that provides some protection from viral spreading, while still allowing people to go about their daily lives.

Here's an Australian article discussing it, one of many that are out there on the googletrons:
https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-why-should-we-stay-1-5-metres-away-from-each-other-134029

 (https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-why-should-we-stay-1-5-metres-away-from-each-other-134029)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 19, 2020, 08:55:01 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 19, 2020, 06:18:16 PM
Don't limit yourself my friend.  I'd be willing to bet that you are an expert in MANY kinds of bad beer!
Yarn | Don't sell yourself short, Judge. You're a tremendous slouch. ~ Caddyshack (1980) | Video clips by quotes, clip | 70d843d0-3a95-4556-bd09-aa38ad7903ff | 紗 (https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/70d843d0-3a95-4556-bd09-aa38ad7903ff)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 20, 2020, 08:38:19 AM
Georgia reported new cases and deaths yesterday both on the 7 day moving average, which means things are flat in effect, for now.

I would think this would be of interest to folks in other states since GA "opened" first.  (Some states never shut down.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 20, 2020, 08:40:16 AM
Are you tracking testing numbers too?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 20, 2020, 08:53:54 AM
Testing numbers of course continue to go higher, I glance at them every so often, I don't think the specifics are relevant.  A person at risk can get tested today and get infected on the way home obviously.  Testing of exposed workers and those with mild symptoms is what's important, I think.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

GA has tested about 35,000 per million population.  US average is 38,000 per million.  I imagine quite a few are multiple tests of the same people (hospital workers).

Just running more tests obviously is not some panacea.  It is helpful of course to have testing readily available for those who need it.

GA is just above OH in deaths per million (reported).  (158 vs 147).  NY and NJ are well above a thousand deaths per million reported.

The total number of deaths in NYC, which should be a hard figure, is running 3x normal, and only about half that is accounted for by reported COVID deaths.  The suspicion is that NYC has quite a few more COVID deaths not reported as such.  They have almost 29,000 reported COVID deaths and potentially over 5,000 more unreported.

GA plus OH have about 3,400 deaths reported.  NY/NJ/CT is a real hot spot, I suspect travelers from Europe brought it in.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 20, 2020, 08:54:52 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 20, 2020, 08:38:19 AM
Georgia reported new cases and deaths yesterday both on the 7 day moving average, which means things are flat in effect, for now.

I would think this would be of interest to folks in other states since GA "opened" first.  (Some states never shut down.)
Well I am already seeing certain media outlets working to discredit the two “red” states data.  

Georgia and Florida appear to be doing well so far, especially in comparison to some blue states with smaller populations and much stricter lock down approaches- like Michigan. 
not surprising-in fact predictable. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 20, 2020, 08:56:45 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 20, 2020, 08:53:54 AM
Testing numbers of course continue to go higher, I glance at them every so often, I don't think the specifics are relevant.  A person at risk can get tested today and get infected on the way home obviously.  Testing of exposed workers and those with mild symptoms is what's important, I think.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

GA has tested about 35,000 per million population.  US average is 38,000 per million.  I imagine quite a few are multiple tests of the same people (hospital workers).

Just running more tests obviously is not some panacea.  It is helpful of course to have testing readily available for those who need it.

GA is just above OH in deaths per million (reported).  (158 vs 147).  NY and NJ are well above a thousand deaths per million reported.

The total number of deaths in NYC, which should be a hard figure, is running 3x normal, and only about half that is accounted for by reported COVID deaths.  The suspicion is that NYC has quite a few more COVID deaths not reported as such.  They have almost 29,000 reported COVID deaths and potentially over 5,000 more unreported.

GA plus OH have about 3,400 deaths reported.  NY/NJ/CT is a real hot spot, I suspect travelers from Europe brought it in.


I agree on this 100 percent. What I really want to see is some results on the antibody testing. I looked (not deep) and really couldn't find much of anything on it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 20, 2020, 09:05:02 AM
There does appear to be a media effort to discredit "red states" and their plans.  In some reports, Georgia is ignored, or mentioned at the bottom as "not being far enough along to draw opinions".  Um ....

There also is some media effort to hype what has happened as well.  Duh.

There is a media war locally between the governor and the AJC (paper) and others here in the media.  Kemp hypes good figures and the media tries to hype the bad.

Go figure.

I'm trying to use the AJC numbers as the State reporting has been "errant" at times and the AJC says they are sifting out the bad reportage.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 20, 2020, 09:07:52 AM
I don;t think antibody testing is very widespread yet, and at least one version of it seems to be deemed unreliable by the medical/scientific community. 

Ultimately, a reliable and widely available antibody test will be the real key to helping open up and make people feel safer-- that is, of course, IFF some reasonable amount of immunity is conferred.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 20, 2020, 09:29:28 AM
The recent news about AB generation using a treatment is encouraging and suggests we do acquire immunity to some extent.

AB testing of a rep sample of the population would be interesting to see.  You might need 5,000 people tested.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 20, 2020, 09:59:54 AM
Out Of Touch | Kevin James Short Film - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfGAktuU93s)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 20, 2020, 10:04:27 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on May 20, 2020, 08:54:52 AM
Well I am already seeing certain media outlets working to discredit the two “red” states data. 

Georgia and Florida appear to be doing well so far, especially in comparison to some blue states with smaller populations and much stricter lock down approaches- like Michigan.
not surprising-in fact predictable.
So a two-pronged reply to this.

There's no doubt there would be some that were skeptical and poking at the data. In our modern world, someone somewhere is skeptical of everything. It wasn't long ago we said we should be skeptical of politicians. We were skeptical of hospitals. We were skeptical of doctors. Why would we not in turn be at least somewhat skeptical of politicians who have a lot of reputation riding on this looking good?

I mean, Georgia produced some data where April 30 came before May 1 (https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1262171592932589569/photo/1) so the lines showed a pretty downward trend. That seems like it would warrant at least a little side eye. 

Now, at this point, some of the more shrill concerns seems like doubling down. If a spike doesn't happen, people will hold it against those outlets. If it does, the chances people who didn't want to think about it aren't likely to suddenly say "why was the media wrong on it?" or at least if they do, it'll be a crock. 

In the end, we'll be able to find something that was wrong because there's so much media, it rarely speaks in one voice and relatively often says at least some capacity of both sides of an issue (even if one feels one side is short shrift).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 20, 2020, 10:07:09 AM
Investors in stocks are optimistic.  They can be wrong, the dead cat bounce phenomenon of course.

The S&P500 is above where it was a year ago.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 20, 2020, 10:08:05 AM
the media is never wrong

it's the "experts" they use for the source

the sources should be uncovered and held accountable - never happens, unless it's a politician
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 20, 2020, 10:12:23 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 20, 2020, 10:04:27 AM
So a two-pronged reply to this.

There's no doubt there would be some that were skeptical and poking at the data. In our modern world, someone somewhere is skeptical of everything. It wasn't long ago we said we should be skeptical of politicians. We were skeptical of hospitals. We were skeptical of doctors. Why would we not in turn be at least somewhat skeptical of politicians who have a lot of reputation riding on this looking good?

I mean, Georgia produced some data where April 30 came before May 1 (https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1262171592932589569/photo/1) so the lines showed a pretty downward trend. That seems like it would warrant at least a little side eye.

Now, at this point, some of the more shrill concerns seems like doubling down. If a spike doesn't happen, people will hold it against those outlets. If it does, the chances people who didn't want to think about it aren't likely to suddenly say "why was the media wrong on it?" or at least if they do, it'll be a crock.

In the end, we'll be able to find something that was wrong because there's so much media, it rarely speaks in one voice and relatively often says at least some capacity of both sides of an issue (even if one feels one side is short shrift).
Meh..... according to my friends here in florida, in Tampa and Orlando- the hospitals are mostly empty. 
something is going right here- at least for now.
I will not give a pass- or credibility- to the media outlet that just can’t give a Republican Governor any credit.  It is really that simple.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 20, 2020, 10:19:10 AM
Quote from: utee94 on May 20, 2020, 09:07:52 AM
I don;t think antibody testing is very widespread yet, and at least one version of it seems to be deemed unreliable by the medical/scientific community.

Ultimately, a reliable and widely available antibody test will be the real key to helping open up and make people feel safer-- that is, of course, IFF some reasonable amount of immunity is conferred.
The issue that I've seen with antibody testing is that the false positive rate is too high for small exposure numbers.

In the Santa Clara study, they used a test that they claimed had only a 0.5% false positive rate, by combining the results of several studies regarding that test, but several of those studies showed much higher false positive rates (some at 1.5% and higher).

Even so, they tested 3330 people and got 50 positive results (1.5%). Fully a third of those positive results could have been false positives using their own estimation of the false positive rate. Their range for potential false positive rate was 0.3-0.8%, which means that if the false positive rate was at the top of their scale, they could have more than half of their positives be false. And if the false positive rate was as high as some of the other studies of that test suggest (1.5%)? Literally they could have potentially tested zero people who had been exposed/infected by COVID-19 and found 50 false positives.

Then there were other issues. It wasn't a random sampling. They basically advertised the test on Facebook, so you can't be certain that what they got was anywhere near a random sample of the population--it could be people who thought they might have had it and wanted to check, or it could be people who had higher risk tolerance to going outside (since they went for antibody testing during a stay-at-home order), etc.

Finally, when they tried to account for false positives/negatives, they said the likely real infection rate was 1.2% in their sample. So they then weighted that sample for the demographics of the county based on where the positive results came from and said the likely infection rate in the county was 2.8% (95CI 1.3-4.7%). Literally they said that accounting for test performance the likely prevalence rate was 1.2%, but that was below the lowest 95% confidence interval for the lower bound of prevalence due to weighting. 

They should have just thrown out all their data and walked away... Or expanded their test to a much larger sample size. Or done something, ANYTHING, other than publish something that suggests the true mortality rate was between 0.12-0.20%, which is quite frankly BS.

So per your bolded part: I don't think there's any problem with the test itself. The issue is that you KNOW there's a false positive rate. If you're measuring a sample and the actual positive rate from the test is close to that false positive rate, you don't have enough prevalence to draw strong conclusions. If your false positive rate is 1.5%, and your actual positive rate from testing is near 25% (as in NYC), then you know that 1.5% false positive is only a small part of your potential measurement error. If your false positive rate is 1.5%, and your actual test result is 2.5% positive, you know that somewhere near 60% of your positive results are suspect and you can't really say much about the result.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 20, 2020, 10:35:43 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 20, 2020, 10:08:05 AM
the media is never wrong

it's the "experts" they use for the source

the sources should be uncovered and held accountable - never happens, unless it's a politician
As I've pointed out... A lot of times the "media" is someone who went to J-school and doesn't have any real expertise in the actual subject matter they're writing about. So what happens?




Then the treatment fails badly in Phase I trials, or doesn't even make it there because something else is found that's wrong, and everyone sweeps it under the rug.

But instead of blaming the media for hyping something WAY beyond what the actual expert proved--which was correct even if not applicable to human treatment (which he never claimed)--we say that we can't trust experts. 

How about you blame the media for reporting it wrong? They're usually too stupid to understand what the experts have even said, much less report accurately on its meaning. 



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 20, 2020, 10:38:35 AM
bwarb,

I'm talking about the "expert" that predicted surges in deaths in Georgia and Texas on reopening

no papers written, just someone's opinion

that someone may not be an expert at all, simply a source that draws attention
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 20, 2020, 10:44:27 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 20, 2020, 10:38:35 AM
bwarb,

I'm talking about the "expert" that predicted surges in deaths in Georgia and Texas on reopening

no papers written, just someone's opinion

that someone may not be an expert at all, simply a source that draws attention
Oh, so probably some op-ed writer or some talking head on TV? Someone who is probably part of the media more than an actual expert on anything? 

Most experts I know tend to speak about their predictions in very controlled ways. "Well, if the governor opens the economy, and the businesses open to normal capacity, and people return to their previous behavior, then we are likely to see a spike in cases."

What happens is the media sees that and says "Expert Tom Smith predicts spike in cases due to reopening."

And then when--as in Georgia--many restaurants stay closed, the ones that are open have few patrons, and generally the bulk of society practices social distancing in a way completely unlike they did before March, the expert is wrong because people only looked at his conclusion without recognizing the conditions--which never happened--he predicated that conclusion on?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 20, 2020, 10:54:59 AM
I'm an expert in floodplain and stormwater management (and land surveying).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 20, 2020, 11:09:22 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on May 20, 2020, 10:12:23 AM
Meh..... according to my friends here in florida, in Tampa and Orlando- the hospitals are mostly empty. 
something is going right here- at least for now.
I will not give a pass- or credibility- to the media outlet that just can’t give a Republican Governor any credit.  It is really that simple.
What do your friends do in the hospitals? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 20, 2020, 11:44:00 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 20, 2020, 10:35:43 AM
As I've pointed out... A lot of times the "media" is someone who went to J-school and doesn't have any real expertise in the actual subject matter they're writing about. So what happens?



  • Scientist--the only "expert" in the following chain does research. This is likely to be a very dry research paper. As with most things, the scientist is probably studying some small part of a phenomenon. Let's say it's the reaction (in a petri dish) of cells being attacked by SARS-CoV-2 in the presence of an antibody (such as the recent Sorrento Therapeutics stuff). The results show a strong inhibition to infection. 
  • The scientist writes a REALLY boring paper on it. It's full of Greek symbols and all sorts of science words that are meaningless to anyone but other scientists. There's a lot of math. In the end it's seen that there is a p-value and it's below 0.05, so he publishes in a peer-reviewed journal.
  • The PR team for the journal wants to get people to subscribe to the journal. So they put out a press release about the specific antibody that inhibits infection of the deadly coronavirus. The PR team starts pitching this to journalists to get them to write about it. (I know a little about this as WAY back in the day my ex worked in a PR firm representing tech in Silicon Valley. It was a constant pitch cycle to try to get tech writers to pick up on the press releases from the companies she represented and write about them).
  • A journalist sees the press release. The journalist doesn't read the research paper. The journalist only reads the press release, which is by definition a hype document.
  • The journalist makes mistakes. Suddenly they don't report that the inhibition of infection was only proven in a petri dish, and not in the actual human immune system. They include quotes from the company owner that sponsored the research, they include a whole lot of speculation about how this "cure" will change everything. And of course, they bury in paragraph 8 that it's still months away from even Phase I human trials, much less availability.
  • The editor, who wants people to spread their story, then takes the actual article and writes a clickbait headline sure to lead to a lot of shares on Twitter and Facebook. "Discovery of antibody proven to show 100% blockage of COVID-19 infection"
  • The public laps it up and can't wait for the miracle cure.

Then the treatment fails badly in Phase I trials, or doesn't even make it there because something else is found that's wrong, and everyone sweeps it under the rug.

But instead of blaming the media for hyping something WAY beyond what the actual expert proved--which was correct even if not applicable to human treatment (which he never claimed)--we say that we can't trust experts.

How about you blame the media for reporting it wrong? They're usually too stupid to understand what the experts have even said, much less report accurately on its meaning.




Based on this chart, the breakdown is that the media folks, who most likely can't decipher the preliminary scientific paper, should ignore the PR team?

That seems like the solution, but with the optics of "Media ignores good news from science company"

I think the answer is not that it was reported wrong, per say, not only because the media is mostly parroting what the researcher's company is saying but because it's not so much wrong as warped by level after level of over exuberance. A company sees a gain from pretending it's a bigger deal. Some media see it as a gain, others might not, but it doesn't matter because once a few folks put it out there, "the media" has reported it. And readers/news consumers run it through all sorts of prisms, mostly ending with complaints. 

So in one case "the experts are wrong" but in others, when this stuff is reported by some, it's "why is the MSM keeping down this good news."

Basically, we need everyone to take a damn step back and realize the world is often not as super interesting as we think (sometimes it is, but not here)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 20, 2020, 11:48:28 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 20, 2020, 11:09:22 AM
What do your friends do in the hospitals?
They are spouses or better half’s of people I work with in banking throughout Florida ( but very little in Dade County.) Some are Doctors, some nurses, a couple administration and a few in Finance.

here where I live we specialize in banking doctors from the bigger local hospitals.

what they are saying is they geared up for the big onslaught that never came and in fact they are all slow now with some reducing their hours

The exception was Palm Beach county- they were busy ( not at all overwhelmed) when the virus first wave hit.  Many ( anecdotal) of the patients they were seeing were from New York/ NE USA. 

one thing that was done here in Florida, and at least for now appears to have been effective- is they really focused hard in nursing Homes and assisted living facilities. They went in with inspection teams to examine conditions supplies and cleanliness levels and said some pretty strict rules.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 20, 2020, 11:50:52 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 20, 2020, 10:44:27 AM
Oh, so probably some op-ed writer or some talking head on TV? Someone who is probably part of the media more than an actual expert on anything?

Most experts I know tend to speak about their predictions in very controlled ways. "Well, if the governor opens the economy, and the businesses open to normal capacity, and people return to their previous behavior, then we are likely to see a spike in cases."

What happens is the media sees that and says "Expert Tom Smith predicts spike in cases due to reopening."

And then when--as in Georgia--many restaurants stay closed, the ones that are open have few patrons, and generally the bulk of society practices social distancing in a way completely unlike they did before March, the expert is wrong because people only looked at his conclusion without recognizing the conditions--which never happened--he predicated that conclusion on?
Ed Zachery!


the experts might not know jack squat, but the media is the asshat here
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 20, 2020, 11:51:39 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on May 20, 2020, 11:48:28 AM
They are spouses or better half’s of people I work with in banking throughout Florida ( but very little in Dade County.) Some are Doctors, some nurses, a couple administration and a few in Finance.

here where I live we specialize in banking doctors from the bigger local hospitals.

what they are saying is they geared up for the big onslaught that never came and in fact they are all slow now with some reducing their hours

The exception was Palm Beach county- they were busy ( not at all overwhelmed) when the virus first wave hit.  Many ( anecdotal) of the patients they were seeing were from New York/ NE USA. 

one thing that was done here in Florida, and at least for now appears to have been effective- is they really focused hard in nursing Homes and assisted living facilities. They went in with inspection teams to examine conditions supplies and cleanliness levels and said some pretty strict rules.
10-4. 

Hope things stay on the up and up. Wouldn't mind a mid-summer return to some level of normalcy. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 20, 2020, 11:52:53 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on May 20, 2020, 11:48:28 AM
They are spouses or better half’s of people I work with in banking throughout Florida ( but very little in Dade County.) Some are Doctors, some nurses, a couple administration and a few in Finance.

here where I live we specialize in banking doctors from the bigger local hospitals.

what they are saying is they geared up for the big onslaught that never came and in fact they are all slow now with some reducing their hours

The exception was Palm Beach county- they were busy ( not at all overwhelmed) when the virus first wave hit.  Many ( anecdotal) of the patients they were seeing were from New York/ NE USA. 

one thing that was done here in Florida, and at least for now appears to have been effective- is they really focused hard in nursing Homes and assisted living facilities. They went in with inspection teams to examine conditions supplies and cleanliness levels and said some pretty strict rules.
On this side, at least in the area where we live, most people are still wearing masks and observing the 6' suggestion. How are things over there? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 20, 2020, 12:17:55 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 20, 2020, 11:52:53 AM
On this side, at least in the area where we live, most people are still wearing masks and observing the 6' suggestion. How are things over there?
Very much the same.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 20, 2020, 12:19:55 PM
Folks here are being pretty good about it all.  The city is slowly reopening, I can hear a bit more traffic each day.

The construction crews wore masks for a day or two, not any more.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 20, 2020, 12:21:30 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 20, 2020, 11:51:39 AM
10-4.

Hope things stay on the up and up. Wouldn't mind a mid-summer return to some level of normalcy.
I hope so too.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 20, 2020, 12:23:12 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 20, 2020, 11:44:00 AM
Based on this chart, the breakdown is that the media folks, who most likely can't decipher the preliminary scientific paper, should ignore the PR team?

That seems like the solution, but with the optics of "Media ignores good news from science company"

I think the answer is not that it was reported wrong, per say, not only because the media is mostly parroting what the researcher's company is saying but because it's not so much wrong as warped by level after level of over exuberance. A company sees a gain from pretending it's a bigger deal. Some media see it as a gain, others might not, but it doesn't matter because once a few folks put it out there, "the media" has reported it. And readers/news consumers run it through all sorts of prisms, mostly ending with complaints.

So in one case "the experts are wrong" but in others, when this stuff is reported by some, it's "why is the MSM keeping down this good news."

Basically, we need everyone to take a damn step back and realize the world is often not as super interesting as we think (sometimes it is, but not here)
In my mind, the "solution" is personal, because the entrenched patterns aren't going to change.

The solution is to take any media story with a grain of salt. Follow the clues in the story to try to get as close to original sources as possible, and view them yourself instead of through the prism that the journalist or the PR firm crafted for you. 

The problem with this solution is that it's a lot of work, especially in a world where people say they've "read" something online and never made it past the headline. 

But blindly blaming the "media" or blaming the "experts" is lazy. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 20, 2020, 12:26:31 PM
I blame the experts in the media ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 20, 2020, 12:30:49 PM
We're going to have to go back to Illinois at some point here. Maybe the first week of June. We have things to tend to.

Things are much worse there than they are here, even with the strict lockdown. Crook County leads the nation in cases right now. 65K confirmed cases. The county I'm in here in Florida has 1,520. The entire state of Florida has less cases than Crook County, with just over 47K total. 2980 deaths, compared with 2096 for the entire state of Florida.

I could be talked out of having to go back, to be very honest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 20, 2020, 01:58:38 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 20, 2020, 10:19:10 AM
The issue that I've seen with antibody testing is that the false positive rate is too high for small exposure numbers.

In the Santa Clara study, they used a test that they claimed had only a 0.5% false positive rate, by combining the results of several studies regarding that test, but several of those studies showed much higher false positive rates (some at 1.5% and higher).

Even so, they tested 3330 people and got 50 positive results (1.5%). Fully a third of those positive results could have been false positives using their own estimation of the false positive rate. Their range for potential false positive rate was 0.3-0.8%, which means that if the false positive rate was at the top of their scale, they could have more than half of their positives be false. And if the false positive rate was as high as some of the other studies of that test suggest (1.5%)? Literally they could have potentially tested zero people who had been exposed/infected by COVID-19 and found 50 false positives.

Then there were other issues. It wasn't a random sampling. They basically advertised the test on Facebook, so you can't be certain that what they got was anywhere near a random sample of the population--it could be people who thought they might have had it and wanted to check, or it could be people who had higher risk tolerance to going outside (since they went for antibody testing during a stay-at-home order), etc.

Finally, when they tried to account for false positives/negatives, they said the likely real infection rate was 1.2% in their sample. So they then weighted that sample for the demographics of the county based on where the positive results came from and said the likely infection rate in the county was 2.8% (95CI 1.3-4.7%). Literally they said that accounting for test performance the likely prevalence rate was 1.2%, but that was below the lowest 95% confidence interval for the lower bound of prevalence due to weighting.

They should have just thrown out all their data and walked away... Or expanded their test to a much larger sample size. Or done something, ANYTHING, other than publish something that suggests the true mortality rate was between 0.12-0.20%, which is quite frankly BS.

So per your bolded part: I don't think there's any problem with the test itself. The issue is that you KNOW there's a false positive rate. If you're measuring a sample and the actual positive rate from the test is close to that false positive rate, you don't have enough prevalence to draw strong conclusions. If your false positive rate is 1.5%, and your actual positive rate from testing is near 25% (as in NYC), then you know that 1.5% false positive is only a small part of your potential measurement error. If your false positive rate is 1.5%, and your actual test result is 2.5% positive, you know that somewhere near 60% of your positive results are suspect and you can't really say much about the result.

There are different versions/manufacturers for the antibody testing.  Indications are that at least one version is worse at producing false positives, which is where my comments come from.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 20, 2020, 01:59:38 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 20, 2020, 12:30:49 PM
We're going to have to go back to Illinois at some point here. Maybe the first week of June. We have things to tend to.

Things are much worse there than they are here, even with the strict lockdown. Crook County leads the nation in cases right now. 65K confirmed cases. The county I'm in here in Florida has 1,520. The entire state of Florida has less cases than Crook County, with just over 47K total. 2980 deaths, compared with 2096 for the entire state of Florida.

I could be talked out of having to go back, to be very honest.

I'd ride it out in Florida if I were you, if you can find a way to manage affairs in Illinois from afar.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 20, 2020, 02:47:14 PM
Georgia is reporting a high figure today with time remaining (792, well above trend line).  Reported deaths is low (12).

Something to keep an eye on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 20, 2020, 03:14:17 PM
Michigan hit with 500 year flooding

https://news.yahoo.com/life-threatening-flood-submerges-central-172112468.html (https://news.yahoo.com/life-threatening-flood-submerges-central-172112468.html)


wow 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 20, 2020, 03:20:00 PM
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/?ex_cid=rrpromo (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/?ex_cid=rrpromo)

Models for each state, and the nation, basically now predicting 123,000 deaths by June 13. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 20, 2020, 03:22:00 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 20, 2020, 03:14:17 PM
Michigan hit with 500 year flooding

https://news.yahoo.com/life-threatening-flood-submerges-central-172112468.html (https://news.yahoo.com/life-threatening-flood-submerges-central-172112468.html)


wow


Feds revoked failed Edenville dam's license in 2018

https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/05/20/ferc-revoked-failed-edenville-dam-permit-flood-midland-gladwin/5226648002/ (https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/05/20/ferc-revoked-failed-edenville-dam-permit-flood-midland-gladwin/5226648002/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 20, 2020, 03:38:24 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 20, 2020, 03:20:00 PM
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/?ex_cid=rrpromo (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/?ex_cid=rrpromo)

Models for each state, and the nation, basically now predicting 123,000 deaths by June 13.


is that 123000 between now and June 13th or 123000 total deaths
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 20, 2020, 03:49:22 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 20, 2020, 03:14:17 PM
Michigan hit with 500 year flooding

https://news.yahoo.com/life-threatening-flood-submerges-central-172112468.html (https://news.yahoo.com/life-threatening-flood-submerges-central-172112468.html)


wow


I put some stuff on the weather thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 20, 2020, 03:56:17 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 20, 2020, 03:38:24 PM
is that 123000 between now and June 13th or 123000 total deaths
Total, cumulative.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 20, 2020, 03:57:13 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 20, 2020, 03:14:17 PM
Michigan hit with 500 year flooding

https://news.yahoo.com/life-threatening-flood-submerges-central-172112468.html (https://news.yahoo.com/life-threatening-flood-submerges-central-172112468.html)


wow
In NE Ohio we're getting much of the same.The creek behind my house was probably at the 2nd highest level that I've ever seen 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 20, 2020, 03:58:59 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 20, 2020, 03:38:24 PM
is that 123000 between now and June 13th or 123000 total deaths
Total.

FYI I posted from that site a few weeks ago when their midpoint was about 111K by May 31. So far it looks good that we'll come in under that.

The 123K is not the midpoint of their analysis; it's actually the highest prediction of any of their models. So I wouldn't choose that as the right value. Averaging their models probably gets you to ~117K.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 20, 2020, 04:03:32 PM
Well, that's a helluva lot less than 2 Million, but still, too many. CCP needs to pay.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 20, 2020, 04:07:02 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 20, 2020, 04:03:32 PM
Well, that's a helluva lot less than 2 Million, but still, too many. CCP needs to pay.
Yeah, and we won't be done with this thing for a long, long time.  If ever.  18 months from now the totals will be well over 123K.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 20, 2020, 04:08:19 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 20, 2020, 03:56:17 PM
Total, cumulative.
We are at 94000 today so the projection says in 24 days the death count will increase by 29000 which is basically 6000 below out current trend

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 20, 2020, 04:12:43 PM
Florida reported 485 new cases and 3 deaths today. Both are on the downward trend. Partial re-opening was a little over two weeks ago, so we'll see how the rest of this week and next week shake out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 20, 2020, 04:14:05 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 20, 2020, 04:07:02 PM
Yeah, and we won't be done with this thing for a long, long time.  If ever.  18 months from now the totals will be well over 123K.
Let's hope not pal. Hope is a good thing, but of course, it's not a plan.

We need a plan, rather than hoping for a vaccine or cure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 20, 2020, 04:15:07 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 20, 2020, 03:58:59 PM
Total.

FYI I posted from that site a few weeks ago when their midpoint was about 111K by May 31. So far it looks good that we'll come in under that.

The 123K is not the midpoint of their analysis; it's actually the highest prediction of any of their models. So I wouldn't choose that as the right value. Averaging their models probably gets you to ~117K.
This is correct, I misread the summary.  If we have 24 days remaining at 950 per day you get 117,000 (about).

There were 1,552 reported yesterday.  The Sunday figures often are low and Monday compensates.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 20, 2020, 04:18:36 PM
The hopeful signs are that the doctors are rapidly learning how to treat severe cases, whereas they were shooting kind of blind early on.  The antibody development approach is at least promising, I think that is why the stock market is going up right now.  Some vaccine news it promising, if preliminary.  Our hospitals didn't get over run anywhere.  

Counter to that is whether many of us can maintain prudent personal habits for a long time.  And I worry that just one nursing home worker could become infections and nearly wipe the place out before it can be caught.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 20, 2020, 05:34:20 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 20, 2020, 04:12:43 PM
Florida reported 485 new cases and 3 deaths today. Both are on the downward trend. Partial re-opening was a little over two weeks ago, so we'll see how the rest of this week and next week shake out.
Disney World is reopening so thats a plus
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 21, 2020, 07:21:21 AM
Yesterday in GA was not good, 946 reported new cases.  The next few days might tell us this isn't working.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 21, 2020, 07:45:35 AM
946 cases, out of how many tests?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 21, 2020, 08:20:39 AM
The number of tests continues to rise of course.  I don't know how many tests were performed, or who got tested.  I guess medical personnel are being tested frequently, and then police etc., and then folks with symptoms.

The figure now is 403,000 tests total.  Supposedly, one can get a drive in test if one desires, and probably some worried folks are doing that for no good reason.


One news site says 50,000 tests were performed over the weekend.

But if most were medical personnel and police, etc., we would expect a lot of negatives.

The 946 figure is well above the 7 day moving average of about 650.

It could be a one day spike of course.  Monday often is a catch up day for Sunday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 21, 2020, 08:24:19 AM
So, Georgia reports Monday's results on Wednesday? They have a 2 day lapse?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 21, 2020, 08:31:14 AM
Sorry, I thought today was Tuesday, my bad.  The Monday figures "typical", but not 946.  

(https://i.imgur.com/CIhdwVs.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 21, 2020, 08:35:15 AM
The Nook next door is doing a lot of business take out, they have lines at night.  The wife thinks they might be doing better than reopening with tables separated.  The open container law has been waived.  Young folks are getting beverages and kind of hanging out, though the Nook servers ask them to "distance".

They can walk across the street and hang out by the park, there are some benches over there on the street.

The French restaurant we like may be closed permanently, the interior looks to be depleted of tables.  Hopefully they are just painting and cleaning.  Not much else has reopened for dining, and the places that have are not getting customers.

I suspect many of us were used to "not feeling like cooking, let's go out" and that habit has attenuated now.  Maybe folks get take out and then provide their own beverages.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 21, 2020, 09:55:16 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 21, 2020, 08:35:15 AM
The Nook next door is doing a lot of business take out, they have lines at night.  The wife thinks they might be doing better than reopening with tables separated.  The open container law has been waived.  Young folks are getting beverages and kind of hanging out, though the Nook servers ask them to "distance".

They can walk across the street and hang out by the park, there are some benches over there on the street.

The French restaurant we like may be closed permanently, the interior looks to be depleted of tables.  Hopefully they are just painting and cleaning.  Not much else has reopened for dining, and the places that have are not getting customers.

I suspect many of us were used to "not feeling like cooking, let's go out" and that habit has attenuated now.  Maybe folks get take out and then provide their own beverages.


Yeah it's definitely cheaper that way.

Down here, lots of restaurants have started reopening now.  Originally it was just a handful of locals and several chains.  Now I see "We're Open" signs all over the place.

In Austin I'd say 80% or more are wearing masks when inside stores.  I haven't been to any restaurants so can't comment on that, not even sure how it would work. 

But also, I'm told by family/friends in other towns and cities in Texas, that Austin's percentage is high.  It's less than 50% in many other places around the state.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 21, 2020, 09:59:15 AM
Quote from: utee94 on May 21, 2020, 09:55:16 AM
But also, I'm told by family/friends in other towns and cities in Texas, that Austin's percentage is high.  It's less than 50% in many other places around the state.
I was just told by someone that in Odessa, the restaurants are packed to full capacity and nobody wears masks. 

My response was based on things you've said and a coworker in Austin have said that people are wearing masks and restaurants are limiting capacity, but that of course most Texans don't consider Austin to be part of Texas, so you can only take your city's experience so far.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 21, 2020, 10:37:46 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 21, 2020, 09:59:15 AM
I was just told by someone that in Odessa, the restaurants are packed to full capacity and nobody wears masks.

My response was based on things you've said and a coworker in Austin have said that people are wearing masks and restaurants are limiting capacity, but that of course most Texans don't consider Austin to be part of Texas, so you can only take your city's experience so far.
Yeah for sure.  

I believe that's true all over the country though.  Rural areas tend to have people that believe differently than urban areas.  Austin is definitely "bluer" than the rest of the state, but Dallas and Houston are getting moreso with every passing year.  Odessa, on the other hand, would most certainly fall into that more rural description.

Similarly, the folks I know in upstate NY think VERY differently than the people I know in NYC.  And so on...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 21, 2020, 10:50:48 AM
Quote from: utee94 on May 21, 2020, 10:37:46 AM
Yeah for sure. 

I believe that's true all over the country though.  Rural areas tend to have people that believe differently than urban areas.  Austin is definitely "bluer" than the rest of the state, but Dallas and Houston are getting moreso with every passing year.  Odessa, on the other hand, would most certainly fall into that more rural description.

Similarly, the folks I know in upstate NY think VERY differently than the people I know in NYC.  And so on...
That's true everywhere, of course...

The way I look at it is which perception dominates the state.

Here in California, we have plenty of rural population that has NO allegiance to the LA/OC/SD megalopolis or the Bay Area metropolis and the attitudes of those areas. But the population of those areas so dwarf the rest of the state that when people think of "California" they think of the populated coastal areas and not the rural inland areas. 

In Illinois, even though the Chicago metropolitan area is a tiny portion of the land mass of the state, it's so much of the population that I believe when most people think of "Illinois" they think of Chicago, or at the very least they think of two completely separate Illinois--Chicagoland and then the rest of the state.

With Texas, I think it's Austin that's the outlier, and often by choice. When you think of "Texas" your perception is big trucks and oil industry and cattle. Even Dallas/Houston, while they're big cities, are seen as more "cowboy/oilmen" cities, that have a VERY different vibe than someplace like San Francisco or Chicago or NYC. Austin's the deliberate outlier, full of tech industry computer nerds, full of college hippies at UT, and where they want to keep it "weird."

Austin isn't big enough to define the state, so it thereby becomes the outlier in the state. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 21, 2020, 11:04:24 AM
I guess.  I don't really try to classify entire states that way, mentally, because I thoroughly understand the massive differences in population from one area to another. Part of that might be because I live in Austin which I fundamentally understand to be different than other parts of the state, and part of it might be that Texas itself is so large and diverse both in landscape and people, that it never occurs to me to attempt to paint other states with a broad brush.

As a heuristic though, I definitely tend to categorize urban populations differently than rural ones, no matter the state. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 21, 2020, 12:03:12 PM
From The Dispatch.


(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2492%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Fbe8f4a63-dbe3-4896-81f6-ffc078313738_1246x1238.png&t=1590076655&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1c6b-0c004c01c900&sig=wqC_QqgOZA4i1BL1jzh3Qg--~C) (http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVkUtuxCAQRE8z7GyZn8ELFlGkXMPi02bQ2OAA1mRy-uDxKhKCEipeN11WV_Apv9SeSkVHgTwHpxiZqMACNeWw5BKFMi8ZYNNhVTUfgPbDrMHqGlI8HxDO8YTuCjPjtKWLACImPbGBYEIGwhiAlGKZ0Flm1ocLEC2oFNfXG4xWda91Lzf6cSNfbVkX-3KYUrV99DZt7Sps2kM7F6j2flrmNWyh3sjn0og1NfF9CfrhU3LNcjEJP6n85LbNHPYBFSB3MHBjrGSd0Zp2jAroJo5lp52hxIAQk2R9ob3e9G-K-lmuRhrj-v1bvrsqFxnkwvRIO2eg8eQ0dhIvY7csdhCSYiqonDFh4w8mVPZ79CioNp1h4ATjgU2c9Lj_rnyMvkj7fNzYsHnybw4oq6yj600O3pdmKMb6NRm99hHqGcvcXNsRQ33NELVZwV2J1SvidwD1tYOK8Cwr1Ar5ujxzF5wwjlpBl1rWUW0pxxC9C2XXbep_CQC2og)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 21, 2020, 12:08:40 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 21, 2020, 10:50:48 AM
That's true everywhere, of course...

The way I look at it is which perception dominates the state.

Here in California, we have plenty of rural population that has NO allegiance to the LA/OC/SD megalopolis or the Bay Area metropolis and the attitudes of those areas. But the population of those areas so dwarf the rest of the state that when people think of "California" they think of the populated coastal areas and not the rural inland areas.

In Illinois, even though the Chicago metropolitan area is a tiny portion of the land mass of the state, it's so much of the population that I believe when most people think of "Illinois" they think of Chicago, or at the very least they think of two completely separate Illinois--Chicagoland and then the rest of the state.

With Texas, I think it's Austin that's the outlier, and often by choice. When you think of "Texas" your perception is big trucks and oil industry and cattle. Even Dallas/Houston, while they're big cities, are seen as more "cowboy/oilmen" cities, that have a VERY different vibe than someplace like San Francisco or Chicago or NYC. Austin's the deliberate outlier, full of tech industry computer nerds, full of college hippies at UT, and where they want to keep it "weird."

Austin isn't big enough to define the state, so it thereby becomes the outlier in the state.
a lot of it has to do with the party of the Governor
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 21, 2020, 12:20:26 PM
Had to come into the office today to access some test equipment. Due to schedule it put my commute at "rush hour", and I can say traffic is still minimal. There were no slowdowns anywhere along my route, whereas during normal times there's a 2-3 mile backup that I have to crawl through. 

This whole "wearing shoes" thing sucks. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 21, 2020, 12:23:52 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 21, 2020, 12:08:40 PM
a lot of it has to do with the party of the Governor
I was going to say that I agree, but that the party of the governor was a dependent variable on the state's overall political makeup...

...but then I recognize that California has had plenty of Republican governors going all the way back before Reagan, and California has [my entire life] been seen as a pretty left-wing whackadoodle state. During the period I lived here, we had the Governator, and I don't think that made the rest of the country think any differently of California--and certainly not any more highly lol... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 21, 2020, 12:51:12 PM
Yeah I was pretty surprised when California elected Arnold as governor, but then again Doc Brown was pretty surprised when he learned that the USA had elected actor Ronald Reagan as president, so, well, there you have it...

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 21, 2020, 01:20:00 PM
Just got word my sister in law and her husband have both tested positive for the virus

She is running a slight temp but otherwise ok

Her son is also positive but is doing ok

She is in her mid 60s but very healthy jogs etc so Im not too worried

By the way they live in Austin

They are the first people that I actually know who have the virus


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 21, 2020, 01:23:50 PM
Sorry to hear that lh320, I sincerely hope they turn out okay.  

Do they have any idea how or when they were exposed?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 21, 2020, 01:33:52 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 21, 2020, 01:23:50 PM
Sorry to hear that lh320, I sincerely hope they turn out okay. 

Do they have any idea how or when they were exposed?


Thanks utee

No idea but Ive not been able to talk to her yet

will do so this evening

They are in a circle of about 6 or 7 people who have it so who knows
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 21, 2020, 01:44:52 PM
well funniest thing my sister in law just called to fill us in

Her son Noel is a nurse at South Austin hospital where they have lots of virus patients

he tested positive but has since been pronounced cured so he is now immune

and back at work

My brother in law also has been given a clean bill of health and he is also hopefully immune

My sister in law has about ten days to go to get past this

other then a slight temp she has no other symptoms





Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 21, 2020, 01:56:50 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 21, 2020, 12:23:52 PM
During the period I lived here, we had the Governator, and I don't think that made the rest of the country think any differently of California--and certainly not any more highly lol...
well, Minnesota had Jesse "The Body" Ventura

ruined my opinion of the voters in Minnesooota
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 21, 2020, 01:57:31 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 21, 2020, 01:44:52 PM
well funniest thing my sister in law just called to fill us in

Her son Noel is a nurse at South Austin hospital where they have lots of virus patients

he tested positive but has since been pronounced cured so he is now immune

and back at work

My brother in law also has been given a clean bill of health and he is also hopefully immune

My sister in law has about ten days to go to get past this

other then a slight temp she has no other symptoms






great news
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 21, 2020, 01:58:09 PM
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved the investigational new drug (IND) application submitted by Octapharma USA for a phase three clinical trial on the efficacy and safety of Octagam® 10% [Immune Globulin Intravenous (Human)] therapy in COVID-19 patients with severe disease progression.

The primary objective of the randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicenter study is to determine if high-dose Octagam® 10% therapy will slow or stop respiratory deterioration in patients with severe coronavirus disease. The secondary objectives of the study are to measure the effects of a high-dose of Octagam® 10% on slowing or stopping the clinical progression of COVID-19 by improving pulmonary function, quality of life, and correlated impact on metabolic factors.


https://www.octapharma.com/news/press-release/2020/fda-approves-octapharma-usa-investigational-new-drug-application/ (https://www.octapharma.com/news/press-release/2020/fda-approves-octapharma-usa-investigational-new-drug-application/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on May 21, 2020, 02:16:44 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 21, 2020, 12:23:52 PM
I was going to say that I agree, but that the party of the governor was a dependent variable on the state's overall political makeup...

...but then I recognize that California has had plenty of Republican governors going all the way back before Reagan, and California has [my entire life] been seen as a pretty left-wing whackadoodle state. During the period I lived here, we had the Governator, and I don't think that made the rest of the country think any differently of California--and certainly not any more highly lol...
It's true that California has had several Republican governors, but all--even Nixon and Reagan--were considered fairly moderate when they were elected (and Nixon and Reagan were a long time ago by political standards). Nowadays, a Republican's only shot at state-wide office is if people get really upset about taxes and there is a scandal involving the democratic incumbent, both of which led to the Governator.

The Governator was the last (likely for a while yet), but also a special circumstance. He won election through a recall, not the traditional primary system. He likely couldn't have won the Republican primary in California because when it happened the California Republican party was already too conservative for someone like him who was/is pro choice, tolerant of gay rights, and pro environmental protections. However, he took advantage of Gray Davis's unpopularity when the energy crisis hit, sticking the state with rolling blackouts and huge bills for overpriced power (to be fair, part of the state's financial troubles stemmed from giving away the store to the state's public employees' unions); ironically, the result of deregulation (of sorts) of the power grid. When Davis raised taxes and fees to deal with the financial trouble, that compounded the blackouts the state had been dealing with, and cost him his base of support, immediately after he was re-elected. A charismatic, middle-of-the-road, wealthy (largely self-funded), well-known celebrity was able to take advantage and was elected because (1) Davis was recalled; and (2) he didn't have to win a primary to get there.

Politically, Schwarzenegger was probably a fine fit for California, but at the micro level, he was known for trying to make everyone happy, which resulted in milquetoast policies that didn't demonstrably move the ball enough for anyone to really like him when he left office (his popularity was 1% point above Davis's when Davis was recalled).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 21, 2020, 03:38:11 PM
Worldometers posted their estimates of actual death rates based on NYC:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/)

Obviously we could quibble over a number of their statistical assumptions.

But they came away with an IFR (infection fatality rate) of 1.4%, which is a little higher than I was expecting. FYI this includes the asymptomatic and mild cases based on the antibody testing. 

They also said that 89% of fatalities in people under 65 had at least one underlying comorbid condition, which is not a big surprise IMHO.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 21, 2020, 03:46:33 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 21, 2020, 03:38:11 PM
Worldometers posted their estimates of actual death rates based on NYC:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/)

Obviously we could quibble over a number of their statistical assumptions.

But they came away with an IFR (infection fatality rate) of 1.4%, which is a little higher than I was expecting. FYI this includes the asymptomatic and mild cases based on the antibody testing.

They also said that 89% of fatalities in people under 65 had at least one underlying comorbid condition, which is not a big surprise IMHO.
why base anything on NYC
NYC does not reflect the vast majority of this country
NYC has 9 times more people per square mile then Houston
for example

Using NYC only serves to show what the death rate is for NYC and no where else
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 21, 2020, 03:48:23 PM
Here's a podcast discussion with Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Romer, who argues that frequent mass testing is the best, most economically feasible, and most publicly acceptable way to limit the damage and reduce the risks.

https://podcast.thedispatch.com/p/paul-romer-has-a-plan-55f (https://podcast.thedispatch.com/p/paul-romer-has-a-plan-55f)

Pretty interesting, I think.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 21, 2020, 04:05:10 PM
Uh-oh... 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/cdc-and-states-are-misreporting-covid-19-test-data-pennsylvania-georgia-texas/611935/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 21, 2020, 04:09:12 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 21, 2020, 03:46:33 PM
why base anything on NYC
NYC does not reflect the vast majority of this country
NYC has 9 times more people per square mile then Houston
for example

Using NYC only serves to show what the death rate is for NYC and no where else
Because NYC is the only place with infection rates high enough to trust the antibody testing. 

It's not perfect, of course. Demographics [age/race] will be different than elsewhere. Level of health and comorbid conditions will be different than elsewhere. 

But sometimes you work with the best data you have, whether it's perfect or not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 21, 2020, 04:28:09 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 21, 2020, 04:09:12 PM
Because NYC is the only place with infection rates high enough to trust the antibody testing.

It's not perfect, of course. Demographics [age/race] will be different than elsewhere. Level of health and comorbid conditions will be different than elsewhere.

But sometimes you work with the best data you have, whether it's perfect or not.
Still the fact remains that it is very possible that due to demographics NYC has a much higher rate then the norm

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 21, 2020, 04:34:04 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 21, 2020, 04:28:09 PM
Still the fact remains that it is very possible that due to demographics NYC has a much higher rate then the norm
Of course. It's also possible that due to demographics it has a lower rate than the norm, right? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 21, 2020, 04:54:09 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 21, 2020, 04:34:04 PM
Of course. It's also possible that due to demographics it has a lower rate than the norm, right?
sure so we dont know any more then before

thats really my point
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 21, 2020, 05:04:28 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 21, 2020, 04:54:09 PM
sure so we dont know any more then before

thats really my point
Eh. If you view these things as "truth vs falsehood" we don't know any more than before, because obviously the conditions in NYC are not identical to anywhere else. If you view science more as a random walk in the direction of narrowing down towards the truth, it's an important data point. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 21, 2020, 08:35:41 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 21, 2020, 04:54:09 PM
sure so we dont know any more then before

thats really my point
This would basically be applying a high-end level of skepticism too all that data, correct? And we're primarily applying it because NYC is the basis?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 21, 2020, 09:36:03 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 21, 2020, 08:35:41 PM
This would basically be applying a high-end level of skepticism too all that data, correct? And we're primarily applying it because NYC is the basis?
Thats what Im saying

To use NYC stats to predict what the death rate is will probably produce a number much higher then it really is
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 21, 2020, 09:36:34 PM
Sure would be nice to have widespread testing....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 21, 2020, 09:39:03 PM
My aunt, uncle, and cousin were planning to come out to the Grand Canyon in mid-June.  They're from rural GA/SC, and are leaning towards still coming out.

I told them AZ opened up in this past week and likely wouldn't determine what to do next for another week or two, cutting it close.  I'm sure everything would be fine, but the GC gets visitors from all over the place, which worries me.

I think I'd go up and see them if they came out, but I'm not sure if I want them to come out, due to the risks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 22, 2020, 06:39:36 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 21, 2020, 09:36:34 PM
Sure would be nice to have widespread testing....
We do. The entire country is doing it. Some states more than others.

Give them a call. Go get tested, if you think you need it.

https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/index.php#novel-coronavirus-testing-blitz
 (https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/index.php#novel-coronavirus-testing-blitz)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 06:41:00 AM
GA reported 862 new cases yesterday and a spike in deaths to 78 (versus 33 as the 7 day average).  The deaths of course are folks who got sick weeks ago.

The governor was on TV last evening saying everything is great, hospital usage is way down.

https://www.ajc.com/news/breaking-news/breaking-mayor-announces-phase-plan-reopen-atlanta-amid-covid-outbreak/1LhGY4zACE9XHwCJ0zHJRO/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/breaking-news/breaking-mayor-announces-phase-plan-reopen-atlanta-amid-covid-outbreak/1LhGY4zACE9XHwCJ0zHJRO/)

The ATL mayor came out with her plan, which is largely irrelevant except for city facilities.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 06:41:58 AM
I don't know what "widespread testing" would comprise.  Is that 90% of the population?  half?  A quarter?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 22, 2020, 06:43:28 AM
We have widespread testing. All the states are doing it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 08:00:37 AM
I read an article here about a guy who tried to get tested and he was told he was not "high risk" and would have to pay for the test.  I suspect that is the case, you CAN get tested, but if you have no symptoms, it's expensive.  And of course the vast vast majority of people don't want to be tested anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 22, 2020, 08:25:08 AM
Exactly my point. Only those who need testing should get one, and those who need them, can do so.


The antibody test is another thing. I'd like to see more of that going on, and hear a little about it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 08:33:33 AM
I don't think "wide spread testing" is actionable in the US for reasons noted.  Availability is different from actual testing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 22, 2020, 08:37:51 AM
https://www.chicagotribune.com/columns/john-kass/ct-coronavirus-class-differences-kass-20200522-mzwjundeezeird6hhli6bfm4ua-story.html (https://www.chicagotribune.com/columns/john-kass/ct-coronavirus-class-differences-kass-20200522-mzwjundeezeird6hhli6bfm4ua-story.html)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 22, 2020, 09:11:58 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 08:33:33 AM
I don't think "wide spread testing" is actionable in the US for reasons noted.  Availability is different from actual testing.
It does no good to test just to test
The test is just a point in time
Negative today might become positive a week later

The only reason to test the general population is for a confined facility like a nursing home or a ship

widespread testing only means tests are widely available for anyone showing symptoms
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 09:16:14 AM
I thought the term "wide spread testing" would mean something like 50+% of the population being tested at least once.  I don't view that as possible here, nor desirable.

But if it means having tests widely available, yes, that is good.

Certain people should be tested often, obviously.  I see no reason for my being tested right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 22, 2020, 09:23:23 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 09:16:14 AM
I thought the term "wide spread testing" would mean something like 50+% of the population being tested at least once.  I don't view that as possible here, nor desirable.

But if it means having tests widely available, yes, that is good.

Certain people should be tested often, obviously.  I see no reason for my being tested right now.
Yes and they are like hospital workers and nursing home workers and maybe top government officials
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 22, 2020, 09:27:10 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 22, 2020, 09:23:23 AM
Yes and they are like hospital workers and nursing home workers and maybe top government officials
But, but, but that’s not what the talking heads are screaming from the mountain tops constantly.....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 22, 2020, 10:09:55 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 22, 2020, 09:23:23 AM
Yes and they are like hospital workers and nursing home workers and maybe top government officials
And, of course, football players.  Gotta test them all daily, college and pro, so we can get our sports back!  I consider them "essential workers." ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 22, 2020, 10:24:36 AM
And servers at breweries. I consider them essential!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 22, 2020, 10:49:47 AM
Absolutely!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 22, 2020, 10:53:01 AM
everyone in the USA should receive a 30 pack of in-home tests each month

everyone should then test themselves daily and report the results to a national website to be counted as useless data

this should go on at the expense of the national healthcare budget for at least the next decade

THAT would resolve this crisis once and for ALL
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 22, 2020, 10:57:31 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 22, 2020, 10:53:01 AM
everyone in the USA should receive a 30 pack of in-home tests each month

everyone should then test themselves daily and report the results to a national website to be counted as useless data

this should go on at the expense of the national healthcare budget for at least the next decade

THAT would resolve this crisis once and for ALL
yes and if anyone tests positive the national guard will come and haul you away to a detention center

they will also test anyone you have been in contact with and if necessary haul them away as well

Bill of Rights be damned this is serious 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 22, 2020, 11:01:35 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 22, 2020, 10:57:31 AM
yes and if anyone tests positive the national guard will come and haul you away to a detention center

they will also test anyone you have been in contact with and if necessary haul them away as well

Bill of Rights be damned this is serious
They won't need to test anyone you have been in contact with because all of those people will be doing daily self-tests as well.

I think I'm okay with all of that, as long as when they do haul me off to my detention center, they do it by drone.

And they better put me in Detention Block AA-23.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 22, 2020, 11:06:49 AM
wherever they haul me off to had better have a golf course and a beer cart driven by a hotty
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 22, 2020, 11:25:21 AM
Those of us who are lucky enough to be working are probably mostly OK, I guess??

This is disturbing, however:

(https://i.imgur.com/z9TlTXh.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 22, 2020, 11:42:26 AM
Well my wife lost her job for 6 weeks so it's certainly negatively affected our mental health.

She did get called back this week.  They finally got some of that Federal payroll loan money. But they can't guarantee it will last beyond the next 4 weeks or so.

We're already in the process of making her plans to be self-employed, but right now there are just so few PT patients that are willing to come into close physical contact with their therapist, that she's not likely to have many patients until people become less fearful.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 22, 2020, 11:47:31 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 22, 2020, 11:25:21 AM
Those of us who are lucky enough to be working are probably mostly OK, I guess??

This is disturbing, however:

(https://i.imgur.com/z9TlTXh.png)
No, I 100% believe it, and those who are working aren't immune. 

I could tell that it was affecting my wife, and only over the last week or two has she recognized that I was right and that it was getting to her a lot more than even she was admitting. She not only is still working, but is still going into an office every day. But it's just wearing on her. 

Part of it is the worry or stress of the virus itself, but I think it's more due to the disruption of life. Her best friend who is undergoing chemo for breast cancer and she can't be there to support her in the way she normally would. Even though we don't go out that much we're told we can't, which suddenly makes our normal behavior seem limiting. She can't go to brunch with her girlfriends. She feels unable to even walk the aisles of Target, which for her is stress-relief, and instead is doing buy online / pick up in store. She's going to an office, but is bored out of her mind because without patients coming in her workload is minimal; she mostly just sits there and waits for the phone to ring. There's the lack of F2F interaction with her dad and stepmom, who live only a few miles from us now. We would have had them over for Mother's Day and didn't due to coronavirus. And while it might sound completely trivial, she can't get her nails done. 

None of these things, by themselves, would probably affect her. But you add them all up, it just wears her down mentally. 

People want their lives back. She works in healthcare. She realizes, logically, how serious this is and why it's important to take all the precautions that we've taken. She knows you just can't magically wish away the virus. But emotionally... She wants her life back. 

The idea that somewhere near 50% of the population is reporting mental health issues with this doesn't surprise me at all. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 22, 2020, 11:59:22 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 22, 2020, 11:25:21 AM
Those of us who are lucky enough to be working are probably mostly OK, I guess??

This is disturbing, however:

[img width=500 height=281.997]https://i.imgur.com/z9TlTXh.png[/img]
As the old saying goes that which doesnt kill you makes you stronger

I just hope thats true in this case

we will come out of this and I think it will be faster then a lot of folks think
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 22, 2020, 12:02:23 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 22, 2020, 09:11:58 AM
It does no good to test just to test
The test is just a point in time
Negative today might become positive a week later

The only reason to test the general population is for a confined facility like a nursing home or a ship

widespread testing only means tests are widely available for anyone showing symptoms
Who has ever said 'test just to test'???
You test as many people as possible, not just people showing symptoms.  That's what we did and that's how things got so bad.  
You test as many people as possible at a point in time to identify areas of outbreak - to avoid them from growing out of control.
Every neighborhood is akin to a confined facility - every town is a virtual confined facility, every city, etc. (most people staying put, a few coming and going to other areas).



More information is always better than less information.  < this is what it all really comes down to
Being against additional testing is utterly indefensible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 22, 2020, 12:09:07 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 22, 2020, 12:02:23 PM
Who has ever said 'test just to test'???
You test as many people as possible, not just people showing symptoms.  That's what we did and that's how things got so bad. 
You test as many people as possible at a point in time to identify areas of outbreak - to avoid them from growing out of control.
Every neighborhood is akin to a confined facility - every town is a virtual confined facility, every city, etc. (most people staying put, a few coming and going to other areas).



More information is always better than less information.  < this is what it all really comes down to
Being against additional testing is utterly indefensible.
You cant test to identify areas of outbreak you would have to test everybody every day which cant happen

Once a hot spot develops you should test everybody in a confined area so we both agree on that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 22, 2020, 12:12:19 PM
If you test everyone, you can predict outbreaks and even avoid them. 
If we set up drive-thru testing like South Korea did in FEBRUARY, people could get tested every so often. 


Then the virus would have really been hamstrung and you could REALLY complain about how fake it was.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 22, 2020, 12:21:12 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 22, 2020, 12:12:19 PM
If you test everyone, you can predict outbreaks and even avoid them. 
If we set up drive-thru testing like South Korea did in FEBRUARY, people could get tested every so often. 


Then the virus would have really been hamstrung and you could REALLY complain about how fake it was.
So we should be doing 320,000,000 tests daily every day

come on even you cant believe that

it is my under standing we do have drive through testing

here is Houston's


https://www.click2houston.com/health/2020/04/06/map-here-are-10-drive-thru-coronavirus-testing-sites-in-the-houston-area/


 (https://www.click2houston.com/health/2020/04/06/map-here-are-10-drive-thru-coronavirus-testing-sites-in-the-houston-area/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 22, 2020, 12:25:26 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 22, 2020, 12:21:12 PM
So we should be doing 320,000,000 tests daily every day

come on even you cant believe that

it is my under standing we do have drive through testing

here is Houston's


https://www.click2houston.com/health/2020/04/06/map-here-are-10-drive-thru-coronavirus-testing-sites-in-the-houston-area/


 (https://www.click2houston.com/health/2020/04/06/map-here-are-10-drive-thru-coronavirus-testing-sites-in-the-houston-area/)
+27,000,000 or so. 

Florida has drive through also. Illinois and Wisconsin too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 22, 2020, 12:26:52 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 22, 2020, 12:21:12 PM
So we should be doing 320,000,000 tests daily every day

come on even you cant believe that
You're not this stupid.  The leaps you routinely make when you disagree with people on here are childish or dishonest.  You can specify which.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 22, 2020, 12:36:03 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 22, 2020, 12:26:52 PM
You're not this stupid.  The leaps you routinely make when you disagree with people on here are childish or dishonest.  You can specify which.
OAM you need to resist the snarky comments as they make you look stupid which Im sure youre not

Tell me what testing everyone means to you

How did I misunderstand

If you mean test everyone when a hot spot develops then we agree
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 22, 2020, 12:44:41 PM
Just going to leave this here...

https://www.aier.org/article/woodstock-occurred-in-the-middle-of-a-pandemic/

"The flu spread from Hong Kong to the United States, arriving December 1968 and peaking a year later. It ultimately killed 100,000 people in the U.S., mostly over the age of 65, and one million worldwide.

Lifespan in the US in those days was 70 whereas it is 78 today. Population was 200 million as compared with 328 million today. It was also a healthier population with low obesity (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obesity_in_the_United_States#/media/File:Adult_male_obesity_in_the_United_States.svg). If it would be possible to extrapolate the death data based on population and demographics, we might be looking at a quarter million deaths today from this virus. So in terms of lethality, it was as deadly and scary as COVID-19 if not more so, though we shall have to wait to see."

“In 1968/69,” says (https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/move-over-coronavirus-we-fought-pandemic-during-vietnam-war-148171) Nathaniel L. Moir in National Interest, “the H3N2 pandemic killed more individuals in the U.S. than the combined total number of American fatalities during both the Vietnam and Korean Wars.”

We were are more resolved, hardened people as a nation. Today this nation is a clown show of soft ass p***sies that get constantly get hood-winked by know nothing do nothing corrupt politicians and a corporate news media that is pure propaganda. Like Badge always says.....the PoA.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 22, 2020, 12:47:21 PM
The Woodstock generation was certainly less fat, but they also smoked a hell of a lot more.  "Health" is a relative term.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 22, 2020, 12:51:24 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 22, 2020, 11:25:21 AM
Those of us who are lucky enough to be working are probably mostly OK, I guess??

This is disturbing, however:

(https://i.imgur.com/z9TlTXh.png)
I'm still working, and it certianly has impacted me. I've had a couple very sluggish weeks. I'm not the most social human, but I've had face-to-face interactions with like two people I actually know, one a roommate. 

I did find myself in an interesting discussion about work from home after all this. On one hand, many companies will learn that some of the things they do can be done remotely. And that could mean more WFH. Some of that will be good. Some will not. It could change living patterns, traffic patterns, how public transit works. Some crazy stuff to think about. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 22, 2020, 12:59:27 PM
I'm not really impacted at all, but I'm used to working alone anyway. I do miss the weekly staff meetings, in person, but we are using Teams to accomplish that. No, it's not the same, but it's something. We do a lot of Zooming too, for personal interactions.

I think people are opening up to the idea of getting together, at a safe distance, outdoors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 22, 2020, 01:14:42 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 22, 2020, 12:59:27 PM
I'm not really impacted at all, but I'm used to working alone anyway. I do miss the weekly staff meetings, in person, but we are using Teams to accomplish that. No, it's not the same, but it's something. We do a lot of Zooming too, for personal interactions.

I think people are opening up to the idea of getting together, at a safe distance, outdoors.
We had a small gathering over at my mother's house on Mother's Day,  We all sat on the front lawn, my parents in one area, my brother and his family, my sister by herself (her kids are grown), and me and my family.  All 4 groups distanced around 8' apart from one another, in the outdoors on a sunny day.  So far, nobody seems to be sick, so that's good.

We'll be doing something similar on Memorial Day, over at my sister's.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 01:17:55 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 22, 2020, 12:12:19 PM
If you test everyone, you can predict outbreaks and even avoid them.  
This is the US.  We cannot test everyone, it wouldn't be legal to demand it of us.  I'm not going to get tested unless I show symptoms, sorry, I'm not going to do it, much less "every so often".  You seem to latch on to some "concept" as a panacea, an easy fix, that isn't.

The US has tested 41,000 per million population (probably duplicates etc.).  South Korea has tested 15,643 per million population.  Denmark has tested about 89,000 per million, the highest figure for any larger country.  This notion that somebody out there was tested everyone is fatuous nonsense.





Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 22, 2020, 01:58:49 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 01:17:55 PM
This is the US.  We cannot test everyone, it wouldn't be legal to demand it of us.  I'm not going to get tested unless I show symptoms, sorry, I'm not going to do it, much less "every so often".  You seem to latch on to some "concept" as a panacea, an easy fix, that isn't.

The US has tested 41,000 per million population (probably duplicates etc.).  South Korea has tested 15,643 per million population.  Denmark has tested about 89,000 per million, the highest figure for any larger country.  This notion that somebody out there was tested everyone is fatuous nonsense.






Watch out CD you might be being childish or dishonest
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on May 22, 2020, 02:05:00 PM
Interesting article

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/21/how_fear_groupthink_drove_unnecessary_global_lockdowns_143253.html (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/21/how_fear_groupthink_drove_unnecessary_global_lockdowns_143253.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 02:06:03 PM
Some folks lap up whatever the media puts out without any circumspection, or examination of facts.

It's facile of course, versus trying to understand some issue, which tends to be time consuming, and can be counter to what you really would like to be true.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 22, 2020, 02:59:26 PM
From The Dispatch.

Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_1746%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Ff7516cf7-f047-414e-ab62-f0921fba3e00_873x293.png&t=1590173308&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1c22-30005d015c00&sig=10KXhJtokd9LIbSuXsUKRw--~C) (http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUduOrCAQ_JrhTSMggg88TDbZ3zBcGoasgguYOXO-_qA-nYRA0SmqmyqjKviUP3JPpaKjQF6ClSOZKcccNWSxYAKFsrgMsKmwypoPQPuh12BUDSmeDwhjeEYvKTTVdsJ0BjMJSzg4jSkxzDg9GzFxdLZZ1GEDRAMyxfVzCaNVvmrdy4M-H-S7LWNjXw5dqjI_vUlbK4VNeWing2peJ2VZwxbqg3y5plhTA783oE-fkm2UW5OwU5Wdum3Th_mBCpA7GJjWRoydVop2I-XQzQyLTllNiQbOZzH2hfZqU39TVO9yD9I07t9f8JqqXNBxhifjeOeGkXcjHqFTeiLtOhPstKIwDIvg9E9zt9-jR0GSgQwDIwTjYaKsx_20Q_kV75my9BiHzZP_XEBZZhVtr3PwvjRC0cavSau1j1DPUJbG2o4Y6meBqPQK9s6r3gFf9tfPDjLCu6xQK-S7eKbO23Ajag1taklHuaUcQ_Q2lF01z_8BB962uw)
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2406%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F751ba4da-58bd-40f7-9964-ec150bdf7801_1203x746.png&t=1590173308&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1c22-30005d015c00&sig=5M.YJhmj4iYwYIsOEMLd.w--~C) (http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUUuu3CAQPM2ws8XXwILFU6Rcw-LT9qBngx9gTSanDx6vIiEotYrq7ipvG6y5vM2Ra0NnhTLHYDjVTBKJOgpECYVinZcCsNu4mVZOQMfptuhtizldH6gQRKOnUZx4pShVdtJME7dMQOSCBSeLVpoFdLWZ7RkiJA8mp-39EUabebZ21Af7etDf_fiQxnq62qz_Hn3eeynudoX-LtD886LMW9xje9BfS1dsuYOfG7CvNefQKbcmFZequHT75U7_DQ2gDICFc17xwVnLBs4kDFoQNdjgGHUgpVZ8rGy0u_2bk33Ve5CucW__gZ-p6gdKQZzlwQ5CuTBwvMhB64kP4InALixSYTITitkfyafxSCuKhmKKsaCUEDwxMZJxOqD-qJdmIj843lf6nw2omGJTGF2J61o7oTq_btnZbUzQrlTmztrPFNt7hmTdBuEOrN0Jf_xv7wNMglfdoDUod_GKXSrJOOoNQ-5RJ7PnkmJaQ6yH7ab_A7Botdo)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 22, 2020, 03:01:25 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 02:06:03 PM
Some folks lap up whatever the media puts out without any circumspection, or examination of facts.

It's facile of course, versus trying to understand some issue, which tends to be time consuming, and can be counter to what you really would like to be true.
You don't say...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 22, 2020, 03:02:56 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 22, 2020, 01:58:49 PM
Watch out CD you might be being childish or dishonest
I'm usually the childish one.

but, I'm only 57 years of age, so.............

getting tested , even every damn day by every damn person will not stop this virus
it will only tell you if you currently have the virus or not
testing for antibodies would be more useful in my opinion - that would tell you if you ever had it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 22, 2020, 03:04:24 PM
Isn't the main PCR test performed by jamming a swab deep up your nasal passages? 

No thanks. I'll suffer that if I have symptoms or any reasonable reason to think I might be infected, but I'm not just volunteering.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 22, 2020, 03:05:34 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 01:17:55 PM
This is the US.  We cannot test everyone, it wouldn't be legal to demand it of us.  I'm not going to get tested unless I show symptoms, sorry, I'm not going to do it, much less "every so often".  You seem to latch on to some "concept" as a panacea, an easy fix, that isn't.


The US has tested 41,000 per million population (probably duplicates etc.).  South Korea has tested 15,643 per million population.  Denmark has tested about 89,000 per million, the highest figure for any larger country.  This notion that somebody out there was tested everyone is fatuous nonsense.
Again the leaps you take are amazing.
I don't recall saying we force-test everyone.  No clue where you pulled that from.  Nevermind with it, it's just all on deaf ears.  I'm not going to bother.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 22, 2020, 03:16:23 PM
before lunch I stopped by the local Menard's store to pick up some light bulbs for the company garage...

there was a nice lady just inside the door telling everyone that a mask was required to enter the store........... I thanked her and went back to my vehicle and proceeded to the next place to purchase my bulbs.

Menard's was selling facemasks for $1 if I needed one.

It was only a bit inconvenient to me.  I didn't feel bad or angry about it.  Everyone and every business have to make decisions everyday about safety of themselves and their employees and customers.

I didn't feel that Menard's was foolish or doing anything righteous.  Just their decision.  Good for them.

This is the only large business I'm aware of in my area that requires a mask.  I was a bit surprised, but only a bit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 03:27:57 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 22, 2020, 12:12:19 PM
If you test everyone, you can predict outbreaks and even avoid them. 
If we set up drive-thru testing like South Korea did in FEBRUARY, people could get tested every so often. 


Then the virus would have really been hamstrung and you could REALLY complain about how fake it was.

Nobody is coming anywhere close to testing everyone, which appears to be your suggestion above.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on May 22, 2020, 03:45:26 PM
Governor ordered mandatory testing for all day care workers in the state. An asymptotic Employee at one in my county tested positive. Chaos has ensued.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 22, 2020, 04:03:24 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on May 22, 2020, 03:45:26 PM
Governor ordered mandatory testing for all day care workers in the state. An asymptotic Employee at one in my county tested positive. Chaos has ensued.
That's fine, we're going to have to get past the point where people clamor over any one single test result. Because there are going to be millions of them over the next 12-18 months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 22, 2020, 04:12:54 PM

Quote from: utee94 on May 22, 2020, 12:47:21 PM
The Woodstock generation was certainly less fat, but they also smoked a hell of a lot more.  "Health" is a relative term.
https://youtu.be/MmjnQjRvPUQ?t=3
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 22, 2020, 04:43:54 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 22, 2020, 12:47:21 PM
The Woodstock generation was certainly less fat, but they also smoked a hell of a lot more.  "Health" is a relative term.


from my generation


https://www.snapgalleries.com/frank-zappa-by-robert-davidson-the-phi-zappa-krappa-images/ (https://www.snapgalleries.com/frank-zappa-by-robert-davidson-the-phi-zappa-krappa-images/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 22, 2020, 04:48:57 PM
only one roll of TP required and the phone was nearby
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 22, 2020, 04:52:35 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 22, 2020, 04:48:57 PM
only one roll of TP required and the phone was nearby
they dont call it phi zappa crapa for nothing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 22, 2020, 05:49:51 PM
and nothing smoking
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 22, 2020, 05:58:35 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 22, 2020, 05:49:51 PM
and nothing smoking
oh we just caught him at a down moment believe me he was the king of smokers
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 22, 2020, 06:03:08 PM
some of my fellow students I went to school with

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tpxkk3fykl8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tpxkk3fykl8)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 22, 2020, 06:06:36 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 22, 2020, 03:16:23 PM
before lunch I stopped by the local Menard's store to pick up some light bulbs for the company garage...

there was a nice lady just inside the door telling everyone that a mask was required to enter the store........... I thanked her and went back to my vehicle and proceeded to the next place to purchase my bulbs.

Menard's was selling facemasks for $1 if I needed one.

It was only a bit inconvenient to me.  I didn't feel bad or angry about it.  Everyone and every business have to make decisions everyday about safety of themselves and their employees and customers.

I didn't feel that Menard's was foolish or doing anything righteous.  Just their decision.  Good for them.

This is the only large business I'm aware of in my area that requires a mask.  I was a bit surprised, but only a bit.
Was this out of principle with the masks, or just not wanting to pay a buck?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 22, 2020, 06:14:04 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 22, 2020, 06:06:36 PM
Was this out of principle with the masks, or just not wanting to pay a buck?
Fearless cant wear a mask cause they arrest him every time he does
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 22, 2020, 06:37:28 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 22, 2020, 06:14:04 PM
Fearless cant wear a mask cause they arrest him every time he does
No, no, no, my friend. That story was about pants.

He can't wear no pants. Otherwise they arrest him when he goes to Menards. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 22, 2020, 07:38:14 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 22, 2020, 06:06:36 PM
Was this out of principle with the masks, or just not wanting to pay a buck?
a little of both

probably more about the buck

if they'd handed me a free mask I would have put it on
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 22, 2020, 09:13:39 PM
WTF is Menard's???
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 22, 2020, 09:36:13 PM
northern (yankee) lumber yard

Home improvement chain with assorted building materials, tools, gardening supplies & appliances.

place has been absolutely packed every day since COVID hit the area
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 22, 2020, 10:01:00 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 22, 2020, 09:36:13 PM
northern (yankee) lumber yard

Home improvement chain with assorted building materials, tools, gardening supplies & appliances.

place has been absolutely packed every day since COVID hit the area
The guy who owns it is the richest person in Wisconsin.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 22, 2020, 10:16:26 PM
it's the best home improvement place around here

kicks Lowes and Home Depot to the curb
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 22, 2020, 10:54:13 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 22, 2020, 07:38:14 PM
a little of both

probably more about the buck

if they'd handed me a free mask I would have put it on
So you want a handout?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 23, 2020, 12:38:58 AM
My dad looks like the Menard's guy... as of late 90s anyway. I haven't seen the ads since then. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 23, 2020, 12:47:33 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 22, 2020, 10:16:26 PM
it's the best home improvement place around here

kicks Lowes and Home Depot to the curb
Huh, well okay then.

I used to go to local lumber yards and hardware stores.  Now we don't really have any.  But I don't suppose I've ever failed to find a 2x6 or a 5/16x5" lag screw at Lowes or Home Depot when I needed one, so there you have it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 23, 2020, 07:09:49 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 22, 2020, 06:14:04 PM
Fearless cant wear a mask cause they arrest him every time he does
Ya I think after his last stint in the slammer the DA hammered out an agreement with him
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 23, 2020, 07:18:17 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 22, 2020, 03:04:24 PM
Isn't the main PCR test performed by jamming a swab deep up your nasal passages?

No thanks. I'll suffer that if I have symptoms or any reasonable reason to think I might be infected, but I'm not just volunteering.
Ed Zachery,if this virus is half as contagious as they say I gotta believe these nasal miners and their implements are covered with it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 23, 2020, 07:49:06 AM
There is a Menard's very close to where I lived in Cincy and I'd go there as Lowe's was 5 miles or so away, but I preferred Lowe's.  There is an HD within walking distance of me here, oddly enough in the car it's a bit of a drive, 3 miles maybe, probably 1 mile to walk.

I find them all to be the same really, but Lowe's has 5% off if you use their card, which I do on large purchases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 23, 2020, 07:53:51 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 22, 2020, 10:01:00 PM
The guy who owns it is the richest person in Wisconsin.
Not Herb Kohler?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 23, 2020, 09:11:41 AM
GA latest figures on reported cases, the column to the right is the 7 day moving average, which has started trending up.  This might reflect the poultry region.  Pence came to town yesterday, we passed the motorcade going to Costco.  The main file had at least 50 cars in it and two ambulances, it was impressive.  I-75 had been shut down going southbound, we were headed north fortunately.

                                       Reported new cases   7 day moving avg

(https://i.imgur.com/huUrfOO.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on May 23, 2020, 10:09:17 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 23, 2020, 12:38:58 AM
My dad looks like the Menard's guy... as of late 90s anyway. I haven't seen the ads since then.
That guy was awesome.  Ray Szmanda. So many impersonators in WI.  Menards!!!Arrrrgh.   He died a couple years ago.   I think he lived 'up north' where they make my favorite fishing lures in Antigo 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 23, 2020, 11:34:58 AM
There's a small city in Texas named Menard.

Long ago and far away, when the no-longer-extant 6th Cavalry Brigade (Air Combat) was redeploying from a week in the field SW of Midland, we had a Forward Arming and Refuel Point (FARP) set up outside Menard so that our helicopters could get refueled on the way back to Fort Hood.

The FARP was near a sheep ranch, and it smelled to high heaven.  We were glad to leave.

There was a lightning strike in the area and the FARP had to shut down.  One of my flight of four Apaches had only gotten about halfway refueled.  Rather than wait an unknown time for the weather to clear, we did a fuel calculation, which worked out OK, and decided to fly on to Fort Hood.

Things got a little tense on the approach into Hood Army Airfield.  The low-fuel Apache wasn't running on fumes, but it was reaching the 30-minute-reserve point by the time we landed.

We had at least one alternative refuel point we could have used had that Apache needed to land earlier.

Anyway, here's to Menard and stinky sheep!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 23, 2020, 11:44:24 AM
The people of Menard and their sheep thank you for your service
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 23, 2020, 12:14:58 PM
We took a brief walk and I noticed several more hotels now open, including the Four Seasons, which is pretty large.  We had a nice lunch on the sidewalk at Cafe Intermezzo (again).  The construction sites were all shut down (the ones we saw) for Memorial Day I presume.  A few more restaurants are not open for dining in.

(https://i.imgur.com/tqPGOaS.jpg)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 23, 2020, 12:51:47 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 23, 2020, 11:44:24 AM
The people of Menard and their sheep thank you for your service
And I thank the people of Menard for allowing us to refuel there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 23, 2020, 05:58:06 PM
I was surprised to see the general lack of masks at Kroger today
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 23, 2020, 07:16:28 PM
Never underestimate
a - people's stupidity
b - people's confidence that they'll be the ones to survive



Anywho, looking on the Phoenix map, the #1 zip code of cases borders mine in the north and #3 borders mine west.  So that's fun. 
Probably about 50% of people wearing masks.  Because brilliance.  

I only leave my apartment for food and the post office to ship games out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 23, 2020, 07:18:16 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 23, 2020, 09:11:41 AM
GA latest figures on reported cases, the column to the right is the 7 day moving average, which has started trending up.  
If only we could have predicted such a thing!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 23, 2020, 07:23:07 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 23, 2020, 07:53:51 AM
Not Herb Kohler?
Menard had about $3 billion more
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 23, 2020, 08:13:14 PM
no mask required on the golf course

36 holes in

more than a few beers
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 24, 2020, 08:57:15 AM
Laguna Beach Beer Co opened for dine-in service yesterday, according to an email they sent me. They serve food so they aren't just a "bar".

Restrictions:



The last one seems strange, but I suspect many places that are more primarily bars, but do have a menu, will be following suit. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 24, 2020, 09:31:56 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on May 23, 2020, 05:58:06 PM
I was surprised to see the general lack of masks at Kroger today
This is not the case in my part of Florida. The only surprise here is to see people NOT wearing them. And no, it's not mandatory to wear one here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 24, 2020, 09:40:07 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 23, 2020, 07:18:16 PM
If only we could have predicted such a thing!
Of course SOME experts "predicted" much much worse by now, up to 2,000 new cases per day.  The trend line has gone from 577 at the lowest point to 719 yesterday (7 day average).  The AJC now reports hospitalizations which is down significantly over the past month.  I presume that reflects serious cases versus mild cases.

The first of three reports today is 558, which is not a good sign.  There is a pretty clear uptrend in reported cases.  How much is due to more testing I couldn't say.  Some could be due to local outbreaks in specific areas like poultry country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 24, 2020, 09:48:29 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 24, 2020, 09:40:07 AM
The first of three reports today is 558, which is not a good sign.  There is a pretty clear uptrend in reported cases.  How much is due to more testing I couldn't say.  Some could be due to local outbreaks in specific areas like poultry country.
Even moreso due to it being Sunday. Sunday/Monday are consistently down days for deaths, and usually low for new cases as well. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 24, 2020, 09:52:31 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 24, 2020, 08:57:15 AM
Laguna Beach Beer Co opened for dine-in service yesterday, according to an email they sent me. They serve food so they aren't just a "bar".

Restrictions:


  • They have a host at the entrance now for seating. Previous was self-seating.
  • The actual bar is not available for seating; only tables. This isn't a huge imposition, as their bar only seats about 10.
  • Masks must be worn while moving about in the place, but [obviously] not while eating or drinking at your table.
  • To qualify as a dine-in restaurant, you cannot order only beer. You must order food with your first beer; subsequently if you're only drinking after that it's fine.

The last one seems strange, but I suspect many places that are more primarily bars, but do have a menu, will be following suit.


the bar that I frequent for the Charlie Boy Sammich tells me I can only sip schooners of beer for 20 minutes after I've finished eating.  Then I'd need to order another sammich
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 24, 2020, 09:55:29 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 24, 2020, 09:52:31 AM
the bar that I frequent for the Charlie Boy Sammich tells me I can only sip schooners of beer for 20 minutes after I've finished eating.  Then I'd need to order another sammich
I reckon you munch those sammiches real slow-like, don'cha?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 24, 2020, 09:56:30 AM
watching CBS Good morning........... a piece on wikipedia

shows a roomful of "editors" in hong kong supposedly looking for and fixing inaccuracies 

all wearing masks, all sitting within a foot or 2 feet of each other at small tables
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 24, 2020, 09:56:58 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 24, 2020, 09:55:29 AM
I reckon you munch those sammiches real slow-like, don'cha?
it's all the better to savor them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 24, 2020, 10:18:18 AM
https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/05/24/magic-wall-ip-states-reopening-king-vpx.cnn (https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/05/24/magic-wall-ip-states-reopening-king-vpx.cnn)

John King on CNN with a look at mobility and changes in case count, I found it interesting.

He played baseball in college at Rhode Island, and likes good wine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 24, 2020, 12:24:57 PM
There's no great consistency between whether a state has more mobility now than a year ago and what its case count numbers are showing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 24, 2020, 12:43:23 PM
while case count is of interest I think the much more meaningful stat is hospitalizations and deaths

I can readily accept increased case count (to some degree) if hospitalizations and deaths remain low
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 24, 2020, 02:37:50 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 24, 2020, 12:43:23 PM
while case count is of interest I think the much more meaningful stat is hospitalizations and deaths

I can readily accept increased case count (to some degree) if hospitalizations and deaths remain low
Then you should be all for testing as many people as possible.  The more we test, the lower the death rate goes.  I said Trump should have championed widespread testing from the start for his own benefit, but you guys acted like I posted in ancient sanskrit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 24, 2020, 02:40:51 PM
You guys know how I love data...here's more a more expansive breakdown of the method I used earlier in this thread.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/)

Actual Cases (1.7 million: 10 times the number of confirmed cases)

New York State conducted an antibody testing study [source (https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-results-completed-antibody-testing)], showing that 12.3% of the population in the state had COVID-19 antibodies as of May 1, 2020. The survey developed a baseline infection rate by testing 15,103 people at grocery stores and community centers across the state over the preceding two weeks. The study provides a breakdown by county, race (White 7%, Asian 11.1%, multi/none/other 14.4%, Black 17.4%, Latino/Hispanic 25.4%), and age, among other variables. 19.9% of the population of New York City had COVID-19 antibodies. With a population of 8,398,748 people in NYC [source (https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/newyorkcitynewyork/AGE775218#AGE775218)], this percentage would indicate that 1,671,351 people had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 and had recovered as of May 1 in New York City. The number of confirmed cases reported as of May 1 by New York City was 166,883 [source (https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary-05022020-1.pdf)], more than 10 times less.

Actual Deaths (23,000: almost twice the number of confirmed deaths)

As of May 1, New York City reported 13,156 confirmed deaths and 5,126 probable deaths (deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate but no laboratory test performed), for a total of 18,282 deaths [source (https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-deaths-confirmed-probable-daily-05022020.pdf)]. The CDC on May 11 released its "Preliminary Estimate of Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Outbreak — New York City, March 11–May 2, 2020" [source (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e5.htm?s_cid=mm6919e5_X)] in which it calculated an estimate of actual COVID-19 deaths in NYC by analyzing the "excess deaths" (defined as "the number of deaths above expected seasonal baseline levels, regardless of the reported cause of death") and found that, in addition to the confirmed and probable deaths reported by the city, there were an estimated 5,293 more deaths to be attributed. After adjusting for the previous day (May 1), we get 5,148 additional deaths, for a total of actual deaths of 13,156 confirmed + 5,126 probable + 5,148 additional excess deaths calculated by CDC = 23,430 actual COVID-19 deaths as of May 1, 2020 in New York City.

Infection Fatality Rate (23k / 1.7M = 1.4% IFR)

As of May 1, 23,430 people are estimated to have died out of a total population of 8,398,748 in New York City. This corresponds to a 0.28% crude mortality rate to date, or 279 deaths per 100,000 population, or 1 death every 358 people.

When analyzing the breakdown of deaths by age and condition [source (https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary-deaths-05132020-1.pdf)], we can observe how, out of 15,230 confirmed deaths in New York City up to May 12, only 690 (4.5% of all deaths) occurred in patients under the age of 65 who did not have an underlying medical condition

So far there has been 1 death every 1,166 people under 65 years old (compared to 1 death every 358 people in the general population). And 89% of the times, the person who died had one or more underlying medical conditions.

And to reach herd immunity for COVID-19 and effectively end the epidemic, approximately two thirds (67%) of the population would need to be infected. As of May 1, New York City is at 20%, based on the antibody study findings.

Therefore, the crude mortality rate has the potential to more than triple from our current estimate, reaching close to 1,000 deaths per 100,000 population (1% CMR), and close to 300 per 100,000 (0.3% CMR) in the population under 65 years old, with 89% of these deaths (267 out of 300) occurring in people with a known underlying medical condition (including obesity).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 24, 2020, 02:49:00 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 24, 2020, 12:24:57 PM
There's no great consistency between whether a state has more mobility now than a year ago and what its case count numbers are showing.
Around us is nowhere near 96% of original "mobility", but things are really opening up now.  With 2 of 3 reports in, today shows 760 reported new cases.  We could break 1,000 today.  The park was fairly crowded earlier and I see a lot of people headed that way now.  Folks were not grouping fortunately.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 24, 2020, 02:52:41 PM
Quick summary of the post above:

If you're under the age of 65 with no underlying health conditions, your odds of survival are very high.  Note that we have no data regarding hospitalizations, permanent lung damage, or prolonged sickness.  Less than 5% of COVID deaths are from healthy people under the age of 65.

If you're over the age of 65, you should be quaking in your boots.  1 out of every 50 New York city residents over the age of 65 has died.

That isn't infected people, that's total New Yorkers.

Also using he numbers from above:  To reach herd immunity, 3 times this amount would die.  That would be one out of 16 people over the age of 65.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 24, 2020, 02:55:44 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 24, 2020, 12:43:23 PM
while case count is of interest I think the much more meaningful stat is hospitalizations and deaths

I can readily accept increased case count (to some degree) if hospitalizations and deaths remain low
Yinz Texicans better not screw this up for us over here in the NE.  We've been locked inside for more than 2 months and numbers are finally dropping very fast.  This is charting to be nearly over in just 2 more weeks.

Then I look at Texas and Y'all's numbers are soaring. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 24, 2020, 03:08:41 PM
Interesting synopsis, and I'm on the wrong side of 65.  I am in decent shape though, not great shape, but a lot better than most my age.  But, if I get it, the wife gets it too and I do worry about her.  She has no health issues except her hips, which are doing pretty well.

This place is "hopping" today, a good bit of traffic, the park is busy, folks are out and about.  I do fear a rebound.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 24, 2020, 03:11:41 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 24, 2020, 02:55:44 PM
Yinz Texicans better not screw this up for us over here in the NE.  We've been locked inside for more than 2 months and numbers are finally dropping very fast.  This is charting to be nearly over in just 2 more weeks.

Then I look at Texas and Y'all's numbers are soaring. 
not sure what youre looking at 

there are only 9 states with a lower death to population then Texas

NE on the other hand needs to learn to lock down the nursing homes

25% of NYC deaths came from nursing homes

what a shame
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 24, 2020, 03:17:24 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 24, 2020, 02:37:50 PM
Then you should be all for testing as many people as possible.  The more we test, the lower the death rate goes.  I said Trump should have championed widespread testing from the start for his own benefit, but you guys acted like I posted in ancient sanskrit.
Besides testing anyone with symptoms we should test hospital workers at least weekly if not daily

I would have thought we discussed this at length yesterday or maybe the day before

Testing just to test really doesnt tell much because its a point in time but hot spots should have extensive testing

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 24, 2020, 03:26:59 PM
I hate that some (nobody here) are "cheering/hoping" for a bad result for political reasons.

These folks latch onto anything negative and ignore anything positive for partisan reasons.  (And vice versa.)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 24, 2020, 03:49:11 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 24, 2020, 02:52:41 PM
Quick summary of the post above:


If you're over the age of 65, you should be quaking in your boots.  1 out of every 50 New York city residents over the age of 65 has died.

I find this a little hard to believe because there are aprox 950,000 NYC people 65 and above

divide that number by 50 and you get 19,000

considering total virus deaths in NYC is only 14,800 your number seems high
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 24, 2020, 04:48:46 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 24, 2020, 03:49:11 PM
I find this a little hard to believe because there are aprox 950,000 NYC people 65 and above

divide that number by 50 and you get 19,000

considering total virus deaths in NYC is only 14,800 your number seems high
Did you read the post above?

Here's the sort version.

NYC looked at total deaths vs. total "normal" deaths this time of year, and, subtracting for Corona and other math: Actual deaths is more like 23000+.  Greater than 95% of deaths are are age 65+.  = 19,000.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 24, 2020, 05:07:11 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 24, 2020, 04:48:46 PM
Did you read the post above?

Here's the sort version.

NYC looked at total deaths vs. total "normal" deaths this time of year, and, subtracting for Corona and other math: Actual deaths is more like 23000+.  Greater than 95% of deaths are are age 65+.  = 19,000.
nope I missed that I only know the certified deaths number the other is based on assumption so that explains the difference
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 24, 2020, 05:22:10 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 24, 2020, 05:07:11 PM
nope I missed that I only know the certified deaths number the other is based on assumption so that explains the difference
assumption is not the right word.

Statistical analysis would be the better term.

For the heck of it --  If we remove those 5,000 deaths, it still means that 1 in 65 New Yorkers over the age of 65 has died from this virus. 

Yikes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 24, 2020, 05:31:20 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 24, 2020, 05:22:10 PM
assumption is not the right word.

Statistical analysis would be the better term.

For the heck of it --  If we remove those 5,000 deaths, it still means that 1 in 65 New Yorkers over the age of 65 has died from this virus.

Yikes.
its a good thing we dont run Texas like NYC 

In fact its a good thing NYC does not reflect the vast majority of this country

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 24, 2020, 07:56:08 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 24, 2020, 05:31:20 PM
its a good thing we dont run Texas like NYC

In fact its a good thing NYC does not reflect the vast majority of this country


Y’all got different genes around those parts?  Haha. 

I’m only posting data on death rates. Back of the napkin math:  under 65 and you get sick is about a 0.1% death rate.  Over 65 is about a 5-10% death rate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 24, 2020, 08:12:22 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 24, 2020, 07:56:08 PM
Y’all got different genes around those parts?  Haha.

I’m only posting data on death rates. Back of the napkin math:  under 65 and you get sick is about a 0.1% death rate.  Over 65 is about a 5-10% death rate. In NYC
FIFY
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 24, 2020, 08:12:40 PM
Maybe there is a little hitch here.  5% of NYC's deaths are to those under 65 with no co-morbidities.  That would seem to mean that some of the 95% are under 65 but have co-morbidities.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 24, 2020, 09:08:34 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 24, 2020, 08:12:40 PM
Maybe there is a little hitch here.  5% of NYC's deaths are to those under 65 with no co-morbidities.  That would seem to mean that some of the 95% are under 65 but have co-morbidities.
I’m not 100% sure of the numbers, that’s why I went with the 5-10% fatality range.  Low end of the range is really taking a rosy look at the numbers.  

data is linked above if yinz want to rerun the numbers. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 24, 2020, 09:40:07 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 24, 2020, 08:12:40 PM
Maybe there is a little hitch here.  5% of NYC's deaths are to those under 65 with no co-morbidities.  That would seem to mean that some of the 95% are under 65 but have co-morbidities.
Apropos of nothing, I still want to find out what percentage of people have co-morbidities. If it's like 10, that's one thing. If it's like 40, that's another. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 24, 2020, 09:46:07 PM
BBTS:

I looked at the link, which--in the case of NYC--isn't much more than you copied and pasted.

I think I can conclude this:

4.5% of the NYC COVID-19 deaths have been people who were under 65 and had no underlying medical issues.

89% of all age-group members who have died have had underlying medical issues, but we don't know the rate of underlying issues among either those 65 and older or those younger than 65.

Therefore, we can't really say that 95% of the NYC COVID-19 death toll is coming from those 65 and older.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 24, 2020, 09:58:03 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 24, 2020, 09:40:07 PM
Apropos of nothing, I still want to find out what percentage of people have co-morbidities. If it's like 10, that's one thing. If it's like 40, that's another.
Well that data isn't available, but I think it is safe to say that your odds of having health problems are much higher after age 65.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 24, 2020, 10:02:18 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 24, 2020, 09:46:07 PM
BBTS:

I looked at the link, which--in the case of NYC--isn't much more than you copied and pasted.

I think I can conclude this:

4.5% of the NYC COVID-19 deaths have been people who were under 65 and had no underlying medical issues.

89% of all age-group members who have died have had underlying medical issues, but we don't know the rate of underlying issues among either those 65 and older or those younger than 65.

Therefore, we can't really say that 95% of the NYC COVID-19 death toll is coming from those 65 and older.
Now that I look at it, I believe you are correct sir.  It was nice to actually see some data, but that link already figured out most of the relevant data.  

So we can conclude that if you have underlying health problems, or over the age of 65, your odds of dying are MUCH higher, as this accounts approx 95% of all COVID deaths.  So, perhaps not 1 in 50 New Yorkers over age 65 dead.  In fact, we have to take that back, because we don't know how many deaths had other issues, like you said.

Thanks!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 24, 2020, 10:08:15 PM
I'd simply throw out data from NYC

but, that's just me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 24, 2020, 11:29:34 PM
Everybody's a statistician thanks to this thing.  Ugh.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 25, 2020, 12:22:14 AM
Having data is a better place to start than having nothing but an opinion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 25, 2020, 06:45:59 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 25, 2020, 12:22:14 AM
Having data is a better place to start than having nothing but an opinion.
Yeah man, that's just your opinion....

GA had a better reported new cases at 660, but it was Sunday.  Deaths reported were very low at 5.  Deaths of course reflect someone who contracted the virus as much as a month ago.  We know the elderly are unusually vulnerable.  If this is spreading, for example, among poultry workers, they would be younger (and largely Hispanic if that matters), so number of reported cases could be rising while hospitalized cases continues to fall.  That's a notion consistent with the data.

There also could be more testing in the poultry region of GA (NE).

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 25, 2020, 08:53:12 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 25, 2020, 12:22:14 AM
Having data is a better place to start than having nothing but an opinion.
Yeah but some folks decide to throw out any data that contravenes their opinion because NYC.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 25, 2020, 08:56:09 AM
A lot of folks "throw out data" (and facts) because it doesn't match their preconceived.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 25, 2020, 09:38:44 AM
I went to a public place for the first time yesterday.  Well, other than the grocery store and Home Depot that is.

My brother and his wife, and my wife and I, went to a nearby brewery.  They were seating at 25% capacity inside with tables spaced 10-12' apart.  And they have a large open biergarten out back with tables similarly spread, that's where we sat.

The servers were wearing masks, most patrons were not for obvious reasons, but every time I went up to the bar to order, I put mine on. 

Nobody was allowed to sit at the bar, which was actually great.  Normally it's all full of their "regulars" who take up space, occupy the bartenders' attention, which results in a long line of "non-regulars" who often go ignored for long stretches.  Now, with limited seating capacity and nobody at the bar, there were no lines and it was easy to get a drink.  I think I kind of like this new world in the time of Coronavirus...


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 25, 2020, 10:04:48 AM
there are stools at the bars here but at least 6 feet apart, probably closer to 10-12 feet

4 stools at a long bar looks a bit odd, but I'm thankful

I prefer to sit at the rail - yup, I'm one of those annoying regulars
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 25, 2020, 10:15:23 AM
We might go up to Sweetwater brewery tomorrow for lunch.  They have pretty decent good and a grand beer selection plus an outdoor seating area that is super nice.

They usually are about half full at lunch and have plenty of room.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 25, 2020, 10:19:34 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 25, 2020, 10:04:48 AM
there are stools at the bars here but at least 6 feet apart, probably closer to 10-12 feet

4 stools at a long bar looks a bit odd, but I'm thankful

I prefer to sit at the rail - yup, I'm one of those annoying regulars
I prefer sitting at the bar as well...

But in the current environment, I can see why they'd avoid it. You end up with a handful (at least) of people in F2F contact with the bartenders, at MOST 6' away, and those patrons (because they're eating/drinking) without masks. 

What happens the minute one of those patrons coughs and they're within 6' of the taps, or of a tray of clean glassware, or the tray of limes/olives/etc, or anything else that's within the spray zone? All that stuff is now suspect. 

At a table you'll mostly just contaminate your table, which should be getting cleaned between patrons anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 25, 2020, 10:29:51 AM
I agree

I try not to cough or sneeze when in public these daze
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 25, 2020, 10:31:50 AM
I am seeing a lot of plexiglass partitions now between customers and "stuff", more than usual.  I think the fear about picking this up from a surface was overblown initially, we just didn't know.  Yes, if someone coughs on a surface, it probably is contagious until it dries and a bit longer, but not that long, especially outside in the sun, even indirect sun.  The main contagion is from sneeze/cough "clouds" and droplets.  My sense is it we all wore masks when around others, the R naught would drop down a lot.

The six feet thing is obviously a rough guideline, not something magic, you could catch a sneeze droplet at ten feet or more depending.  If they are wearing a mask, it's probably under a foot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 25, 2020, 10:32:39 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 25, 2020, 10:29:51 AM
I agree

I try not to cough or sneeze when in public these daze
Unless people are too close to me in Costco. Then a little cough cough under my breath clears the area.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 25, 2020, 01:26:07 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 25, 2020, 10:31:50 AM
I am seeing a lot of plexiglass partitions now between customers and "stuff", more than usual.  I think the fear about picking this up from a surface was overblown initially, we just didn't know.  Yes, if someone coughs on a surface, it probably is contagious until it dries and a bit longer, but not that long, especially outside in the sun, even indirect sun.  The main contagion is from sneeze/cough "clouds" and droplets.  My sense is it we all wore masks when around others, the R naught would drop down a lot.

The six feet thing is obviously a rough guideline, not something magic, you could catch a sneeze droplet at ten feet or more depending.  If they are wearing a mask, it's probably under a foot.
Like I posted a few days back, there were studies that showed that 1.8 meters was determined to be a significant beneficial distance for diminishing the likelihood of viral transmission.  This obviously wasn't for the novel Coronavirus, but it's the guide line they're using.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 25, 2020, 01:29:00 PM
And yeah, I like sitting at the bar too, especially when I'm traveling alone for business.

But at many places, and this one in particular, the bar seating proved to be a major problem for anyone NOT seated at the bar, to get a drink.  They just always did a really bad job of handling the line and instead spent all their time with the people seated at the bar.  So I'm glad they can't do it that way anymore, and I let them know in a kind way, that I appreciated the improved customer service that the new setup provides.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 25, 2020, 06:40:51 PM
as you know, communication is the key
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 25, 2020, 10:50:50 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 25, 2020, 01:26:07 PM
Like I posted a few days back, there were studies that showed that 1.8 meters was determined to be a significant beneficial distance for diminishing the likelihood of viral transmission.  This obviously wasn't for the novel Coronavirus, but it's the guide line they're using. 
What about 1.9 meters?  Is that even better?  Or 2.2?  4.9?!?  30!?!?!!?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 25, 2020, 10:58:38 PM
I'm gonna say 2.3
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 25, 2020, 11:08:51 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 25, 2020, 10:50:50 PM
What about 1.9 meters?  Is that even better?  Or 2.2?  4.9?!?  30!?!?!!?
The SCIENTISTS said 6 feet was good.  I know for sure you'd never doubt THE SCIENTISTS.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 25, 2020, 11:09:45 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 25, 2020, 10:58:38 PM
I'm gonna say 2.3

I stay away from folks I don't know by at least 20 feet or so.  This was occurring long before The Coronas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 25, 2020, 11:13:37 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 25, 2020, 11:08:51 PM
The SCIENTISTS said 6 feet was good.  I know for sure you'd never doubt THE SCIENTISTS.
NERDS. I'm gonna drive down your way and cough right into your mouth just to show them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 25, 2020, 11:16:15 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 25, 2020, 11:13:37 PM
NERDS. I'm gonna drive down your way and cough right into your mouth just to show them.

Uhhhh.... no thanks?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 26, 2020, 07:23:55 AM
I imagine there is some kind of exponential risk decay curve with distancing.  If you are 100 feet away, your risk is near zero.  At 6 feet, perhaps it is 3% or something.  Exposure time would also be a factor of course, presuming the individual is contagious.

The sneeze/cough vector would be attenuated if said person was wearing some sort of facial covering.  Avoid skin contact with anyone outside your family.  Don't share needles.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 26, 2020, 08:08:00 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 26, 2020, 07:23:55 AM
I imagine there is some kind of exponential risk decay curve with distancing.  If you are 100 feet away, your risk is near zero.  At 6 feet, perhaps it is 3% or something.
Exactly.  I haven't seen it stated anywhere, but my assumption is that it's like other exponential decay curves and decreases with 1/r2 or some multiplier of that.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 26, 2020, 08:12:53 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/NuAw4jc.png)

Monday's figure could be due to the holiday, this is reported new cases, with 731 being the 7 day MA.  Reported deaths = 21.  Hospitalized cases = 848 (7 day MA 948, so this figure is slowly declining).  That could be the best way to track "progress".  R naught estimated has crept back above 1.0.

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/)

The first of three reports today is 186 new cases, which could be a good number for the day.  This is not terribly predictive though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 26, 2020, 11:25:28 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 25, 2020, 11:13:37 PM
NERDS. I'm gonna drive down your way and cough right into your mouth just to show them.
from 6 feet away?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 26, 2020, 11:27:07 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 26, 2020, 11:25:28 AM
from 6 feet away?
Good luck getting it past my MASK!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 26, 2020, 11:33:10 AM
https://www.popsci.com/story/health/covid-19-coronavirus-immunity-vaccine/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR0VH6rI8Y2o8olFDFQtkq0UTabAyJRD-C_JMkYSqtmwmMQ21r9BJ3L1O-I (https://www.popsci.com/story/health/covid-19-coronavirus-immunity-vaccine/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR0VH6rI8Y2o8olFDFQtkq0UTabAyJRD-C_JMkYSqtmwmMQ21r9BJ3L1O-I)

 a report published May 14 in the journal Cell (https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30610-3) offers some encouraging signs about how our immune systems respond to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.


The researchers found that the immune system responds to the novel coronavirus in multiple ways. Importantly, they observed that people who recover from COVID-19 carry immune cells in their blood called T cells that target the novel coronavirus. T cells are a key component of the immune system’s ability to fend off infectious diseases. When faced with fragments of SARS-CoV-2, the T cells recognized the virus and sprang into action.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 26, 2020, 12:24:49 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 26, 2020, 11:33:10 AM
https://www.popsci.com/story/health/covid-19-coronavirus-immunity-vaccine/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR0VH6rI8Y2o8olFDFQtkq0UTabAyJRD-C_JMkYSqtmwmMQ21r9BJ3L1O-I (https://www.popsci.com/story/health/covid-19-coronavirus-immunity-vaccine/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR0VH6rI8Y2o8olFDFQtkq0UTabAyJRD-C_JMkYSqtmwmMQ21r9BJ3L1O-I)

a report published May 14 in the journal Cell (https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30610-3) offers some encouraging signs about how our immune systems respond to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.


The researchers found that the immune system responds to the novel coronavirus in multiple ways. Importantly, they observed that people who recover from COVID-19 carry immune cells in their blood called T cells that target the novel coronavirus. T cells are a key component of the immune system’s ability to fend off infectious diseases. When faced with fragments of SARS-CoV-2, the T cells recognized the virus and sprang into action.



I need some of them t cells please
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 26, 2020, 12:27:21 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 26, 2020, 12:24:49 PM
I need some of them t cells please
@bayareabadger (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1571) already offered to cough in your mouth...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 26, 2020, 01:19:47 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 26, 2020, 12:27:21 PM
@bayareabadger (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1571) already offered to cough in your mouth...
no thanks Id rather get the virus
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 26, 2020, 01:56:58 PM
So, in my neck of the woods the conspiracies theories are off the charts.

You guys have this issue in your areas?


I understand there is a natural desire to need reasons "why" something bad happened, but sometimes bad stuff just happens.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 26, 2020, 02:00:01 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 26, 2020, 01:56:58 PM
So, in my neck of the woods the conspiracies theories are off the charts.

You guys have this issue in your areas?


I understand there is a natural desire to need reasons "why" something bad happened, but sometimes bad stuff just happens.



What kind of conspiracy theories?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 26, 2020, 02:19:50 PM
I alluded to some whoppers earlier.  The virus of course is a plot by Bill Gates who already has a patent on the virus and wants us all to get innoculated as the vaccine will include a tiny tracking chip that goes inside of us and tells Bill Gates where we are at all times (unlike say our phones).

The other one is something about how face masks will smother us, or something.

And of course there is one that this is to keep the current President from being reelected.  Fauci and Birx are knee deep in that one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 26, 2020, 02:28:24 PM
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/26/us/georgia-coronavirus/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/26/us/georgia-coronavirus/index.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 26, 2020, 02:30:59 PM
Dr. Birx seems pretty optimistic lately.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 26, 2020, 02:47:07 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 26, 2020, 02:00:01 PM
What kind of conspiracy theories?
So...many.  I'll list a a few

Bill Gates wants to implant a microchip via a vaccine so he can..????.  He actually caused the virus as part of his diabolical plan.

Somehow this has been caused by 5G.  Because ???

Somehow this is a plot by China to destroy Trump/US Economy/??? because ???

There is no virus, or it is so minor that ???? -- and this is because ????

This is just a test run to see if we will be good little lab rats for when the evil empire??? wants to ???

You don't have to worry about the virus if you have a healthy immune system from not wearing a mask/not being vaccinated/not using essential oils/not using silver X

Someone??? is keeping the effective drugs/cure out of the hands of the public, and this is to hurt Trump/????

The virus was a biological weapon that escaped/was released from a Chinese lab because ????

GMOs are to blame???

This is all just politics orchestrated by the New World Order/Deep State/Big Pharma/??? because ???

The virus death rates are inflated, because or nefarious reason ????


I could probably keep going...



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 26, 2020, 02:53:32 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 26, 2020, 02:47:07 PM
So...many.  I'll list a a few

Bill Gates wants to implant a microchip via a vaccine so he can..????.  He actually caused the virus as part of his diabolical plan.

Somehow this has been caused by 5G.  Because ???

Somehow this is a plot by China to destroy Trump/US Economy/??? because ???

There is no virus, or it is so minor that ???? -- and this is because ????

This is just a test run to see if we will be good little lab rats for when the evil empire??? wants to ???

You don't have to worry about the virus if you have a healthy immune system from not wearing a mask/not being vaccinated/not using essential oils/not using silver X

Someone??? is keeping the effective drugs/cure out of the hands of the public, and this is to hurt Trump/????

The virus was a biological weapon that escaped/was released from a Chinese lab because ????

GMOs are to blame???

This is all just politics orchestrated by the New World Order/Deep State/Big Pharma/??? because ???

The virus death rates are inflated, because or nefarious reason ????


I could probably keep going...





Huh.  I guess I've seen a couple people mention them in passing here, but not take them seriously.  And I guess I've seen a little bit on social media, but I assume those are Russian bots or something.

Nobody I know in real life believes anything like the above.

There are certainly people that believe that various interests including conservative media, liberal media, politicians, and other groups are manipulating or spinning the stories for their own benefit.  But that is both believable, and a reasonable assumption, since all of those parties do that to ALL stories, to serve their own agendas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on May 26, 2020, 02:54:57 PM
I heard this was started at the University of Texas as another ploy to get out of the Big12...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 26, 2020, 02:58:50 PM
Quote from: Entropy on May 26, 2020, 02:54:57 PM
I heard this was started at the University of Texas as another ploy to get out of the Big12...
Ha!  Swing and a miss.  If Texas wanted out of the B12, Texas would have been out of the B12 a long time ago.  

Now, if you'd said it was started in Austin as another ploy to keep people from moving here, I'd buy that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 26, 2020, 02:59:05 PM
Numbers are inflated I believe that.As other people have pointed out people who've had lung cancer and diabetes as Covid happened by and finished them off.The flu and any number of other illnesses could have spurred on demise.It's a thing ya but the looking in the closets and under the beds for the invisible and ever present boogie man as the economy teeters near collapse needs to change.Sure if you got enough money socked away and can stand pat for the next decade and order ass wipes dropped off - hey great - living the dream.Life is a terminal disease,take necessary precautions and get on with it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 26, 2020, 03:02:34 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 26, 2020, 02:58:50 PM
Now, if you'd said it was started in Austin as another ploy to keep people from moving here, I'd buy that.
It's coming out where Tito's is the only known effective elixir - so git while the gittinsgood
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on May 26, 2020, 03:02:52 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 26, 2020, 02:58:50 PM
Ha!  Swing and a miss.  If Texas wanted out of the B12, Texas would have been out of the B12 a long time ago. 

Now, if you'd said it was started in Austin as another ploy to keep people from moving here, I'd buy that.
::hugs and kisses Utee::
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 26, 2020, 03:05:37 PM
Quote from: Entropy on May 26, 2020, 03:02:52 PM
::hugs and kisses Utee::
;)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 26, 2020, 03:07:46 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 26, 2020, 02:53:32 PM
Huh.  I guess I've seen a couple people mention them in passing here, but not take them seriously.  And I guess I've seen a little bit on social media, but I assume those are Russian bots or something.

Nobody I know in real life believes anything like the above.

There are certainly people that believe that various interests including conservative media, liberal media, politicians, and other groups are manipulating or spinning the stories for their own benefit.  But that is both believable, and a reasonable assumption, since all of those parties do that to ALL stories, to serve their own agendas.
Whoa brother.  I wish I could say the same.

We have loads of local churches that have a lot of influence.  I mean...A LOT.  Amish churches, Mennonite churches, a huge baptist church, and a huge non-denominational church have been on the anti-science/anti-vaccine thing for years.  Nearly all of our local politicians attend the aforementioned baptist church.  If you're wondering if you heard that right, yes, the churches regularly preach against vaccines.

I would say 30+% of my neck of the woods doesn't have any faith in science/experts/government/media.  "Fake news", as it were.

But if Karen posts a shady youtube video on Facebooks, they are all in...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 26, 2020, 03:10:19 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 26, 2020, 02:59:05 PM
Numbers are inflated I believe that.As other people have pointed out people who've had lung cancer and diabetes as Covid happened by and finished them off.The flu and any number of other illnesses could have spurred on demise.It's a thing ya but the looking in the closets and under the beds for the invisible and ever present boogie man as the economy teeters near collapse needs to change.Sure if you got enough money socked away and can stand pat for the next decade and order ass wipes dropped off - hey great - living the dream.Life is a terminal disease,take necessary precautions and get on with it
But the overwhelming evidence suggests the exact opposite.

Also, if someone had lung cancer AND they died from COVID, that's recorded as both.  And consistent with the way they've treated the flu, etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 26, 2020, 03:11:12 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 26, 2020, 03:07:46 PM
Whoa brother.  I wish I could say the same.

We have loads of local churches that have a lot of influence.  I mean...A LOT.  Amish churches, Mennonite churches, a huge baptist church, and a huge non-denominational church have been on the anti-science/anti-vaccine thing for years.  Nearly all of our local politicians attend the aforementioned baptist church.  If you're wondering if you heard that right, yes, the churches regularly preach against vaccines.

I would say 30+% of my neck of the woods doesn't have any faith in science/experts/government/media.  "Fake news", as it were.

But if Karen posts a shady youtube video on Facebooks, they are all in...
Wow, no offense intended, but where you live... sure seems like it sucks.

Hang in there, I suppose.  It's certainly not like that everywhere. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 26, 2020, 03:35:17 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 26, 2020, 03:11:12 PM
Wow, no offense intended, but where you live... sure seems like it sucks.

Hang in there, I suppose.  It's certainly not like that everywhere.
It's a nice area.  The people are honest, hard working...

But the local politics are crazy.

The Amish and the Mennonite churches have been here forever.  They aren't very political, and they don't often force their ideals/beliefs on people.

The baptist church, on the other hand, controls just about everything around here.  Their congregation alone is enough for them to hand pick the winner of every single local republican primary.  Once the "R" is by the name, they are guaranteed to win the election.  My area is about 2/3rds R.

This local baptist church has their own school, and yet their members control 3 out of 5 seats on the public school board.  Our local township's elected leader constantly posts conspiracy theories about how 9/11 was an inside job, etc. etc. etc.  Our local state senator refused to answer if his kids were vaccinated.

They constantly refuse any type of new business trying to come in unless it is has a member in good standing in their church.  We can't get a Cracker Barrel because it would ruin the "quaintness" of our town, but it's ok to approve a pipeline and a huge landfill.

They also haven't re-assessed home values since 1994, and slash public school funding at every opportunity they can possibly get. After all, underfunded and under supported public schools don't effect their kids.

I had a friend run for local office as a D.  He's not really a D, but that was the only way to get on the ballot. He was hoping, as a conservative, he could draw some of that 2/3 R vote and change things around here.  Didn't work.  He only got 37% of the vote.  haha
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 26, 2020, 03:38:38 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 26, 2020, 03:11:12 PM
Wow, no offense intended, but where you live... sure seems like it sucks.

Hang in there, I suppose.  It's certainly not like that everywhere.
Doesn't help when stuff like this is out there for all to read.



https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470
 (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 26, 2020, 04:00:06 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 26, 2020, 03:38:38 PM
Doesn't help when stuff like this is out there for all to read.



https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470
 (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470)
I think the economic rebound will be orders of magnitude higher than any rebound we've ever seen.  I don't think it will rebound quite to where we were.  Particular areas of the economy will not rebound right away.  Movies, for example.  Even with a full green light, there's a large portion of the population that isn't going to go.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 26, 2020, 04:22:16 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 26, 2020, 04:00:06 PM
I think the economic rebound will be orders of magnitude higher than any rebound we've ever seen.  I don't think it will rebound quite to where we were.  Particular areas of the economy will not rebound right away.  Movies, for example.  Even with a full green light, there's a large portion of the population that isn't going to go.
The entertainment sector in general-- movies, travel (especially air travel),  cruise ships, water parks, theme parks.  Even if/when some of those open up, as you suggest, huge portions of the population still won't go.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 26, 2020, 04:22:30 PM
Yeah, the smart ones.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on May 26, 2020, 04:27:07 PM
I was on an airplane as the airlines began their new cleaning procedures.  If they keep them, I'll fly sooner than later.    Cleanest plane I've ever been on...

Movie theaters... well, might be a long time. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 26, 2020, 04:29:26 PM
I just booked a cruise today, to replace the one that China cancelled on me. This one will go from Lisbon to Miami, in November 2021.

100 percent refundable, of course.

That Royal Caribbean stock I bought in March at $23 is now up to almost $50. It's high was $135, and I think it will get there over the next couple of years.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 26, 2020, 04:29:57 PM
Yup,gonna be a while before I go back to the movies.  Cruise ships weren't high on my list anyway, but yeah, don't see doing that any time soon either.  And I find water parks and theme parks to be thoroughly disgusting even in the best of circumstances, so I won't be frequenting them, either.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 26, 2020, 04:32:56 PM
Anyone have any interest in going to a buffet, or using the salad bars in stores and restaurants? Not me.

I don't think I'll ever touch one again, but I was never a buffet guy anyway, unless it was high-end, with people actually serving.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 26, 2020, 04:34:58 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 26, 2020, 03:07:46 PM
Whoa brother.  I wish I could say the same.

We have loads of local churches that have a lot of influence.  I mean...A LOT.  Amish churches, Mennonite churches, a huge baptist church, and a huge non-denominational church have been on the anti-science/anti-vaccine thing for years.  Nearly all of our local politicians attend the aforementioned baptist church.  If you're wondering if you heard that right, yes, the churches regularly preach against vaccines.

I would say 30+% of my neck of the woods doesn't have any faith in science/experts/government/media.  "Fake news", as it were.

But if Karen posts a shady youtube video on Facebooks, they are all in...
Not to the extent of believing conspiracy theories- but it is hard to find fault with them for not trusting “experts, government, media, etc..”

you can rarely get a consistent answer from any of them. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 26, 2020, 04:38:44 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on May 26, 2020, 04:34:58 PM
Not to the extent of believing conspiracy theories- but it is hard to find fault with them for not trusting “experts, government, media, etc..”

you can rarely get a consistent answer from any of them.
You don't say?


Quote
CDC says surgical masks won't protect you from the coronavirus

https://komonews.com/news/consumer/cdc-says-surgical-masks-wont-protect-you-from-the-coronavirus (https://komonews.com/news/consumer/cdc-says-surgical-masks-wont-protect-you-from-the-coronavirus)


:)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on May 26, 2020, 04:40:27 PM
I wonder if drive-in theaters will make a comeback?  I wonder if black friday will look the same.  Will people crowd each other for deals like they have in the past?   The indoor kids fun plexus'... not sure I'd go back to them.  How long before people return to gym's at the levels of 2019?

I would not want to be in the commercial space business either..    
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 26, 2020, 04:42:05 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 26, 2020, 03:38:38 PM
Doesn't help when stuff like this is out there for all to read.



https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470
 (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470)
Exactly 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 26, 2020, 04:43:02 PM
Quote from: Entropy on May 26, 2020, 04:40:27 PM
I wonder if drive-in theaters will make a comeback?  I wonder if black friday will look the same.  Will people crowd each other for deals like they have in the past?  The indoor kids fun plexus'... not sure I'd go back to them.  How long before people return to gym's at the levels of 2019?

I would not want to be in the commercial space business either..   
There's your next collapse, but it won't be the big boys. They will repurpose their holdings. It's the guy who owns the one-story office-warehouse types that is gonna hurt.

The guys who own the spaces we rent from are already shitting bricks, because they see we operating without seeing each other in-person. They probably call to take our "temperature" about once per week, or so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 26, 2020, 04:48:41 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 26, 2020, 04:43:02 PM
There's your next collapse, but it won't be the big boys. They will repurpose their holdings. It's the guy who owns the one-story office-warehouse types that is gonna hurt.

The guys who own the spaces we rent from are already shitting bricks, because they see we operating without seeing each other in-person. They probably call to take our "temperature" about once per week, or so.
Yes, we're actually looking for some space for my wife right now, for her to set up her own physical therapy practice.  More space is already coming available, but we're gonna wait it out and watch the rents tumble.  Bad for those business owners, but good for us.

Her dad was actually thinking about helping stake us to just buy a commercial space and then rent out the portions we don't need, but that part of the plan will have to wait for some market stabiization.  Getting caught with a property and no tenants is extremely bad news for now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on May 26, 2020, 04:49:40 PM
I wonder how many construction projects planned in the near term will be cancelled.  There is going to be a lot of office space available.

I also wonder if there will be a migration of people to cheaper towns/cities as businesses allow more remote work.  Why live in SF if I can live in Salt Lake City and still do my job.  Even with a pay cut, ones purchasing power might be better.  Remote work would also expand talent access. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 26, 2020, 04:51:27 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 26, 2020, 04:22:16 PM
The entertainment sector in general-- movies, travel (especially air travel),  cruise ships, water parks, theme parks.  Even if/when some of those open up, as you suggest, huge portions of the population still won't go.

I'd probably go back to the fancy theater with the reclining chairs and the servers to bring me beers during the movie. The chairs are set in pairs with 5-6 feet between pairs anyway, and I go with my wife, so it's not like I'm in a crowd. The literal *only* time I'd ever see a movie in the normal theater would be if it was a kids movie, and I don't mind forgoing that forever lol ;-)

I actually would return to travel pretty quickly, I think. I've read that the air filtration systems on airplanes actually are better than you'd think--it's not a major cause of spread of infectious diseases. I'd probably use the mask, but travel is one of my favorite things, so I'd be more willing to take risks there than in many other areas.

I don't think I'll ever take a cruise, but that's not because of COVID. And I hate water parks and theme parks, but again, not because of COVID. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 26, 2020, 04:53:27 PM
Quote from: Entropy on May 26, 2020, 04:49:40 PM
I wonder how many construction projects planned in the near term will be cancelled.  There is going to be a lot of office space available.

I also wonder if there will be a migration of people to cheaper towns/cities as businesses allow more remote work.  Why live in SF if I can live in Salt Lake City and still do my job.  Even with a pay cut, ones purchasing power might be better.  Remote work would also expand talent access. 
We had 3 sites under contract to design office/retail and they were all cancelled. Looks like they might go apartment/retail now, subject to zoning hearings and all that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 26, 2020, 04:56:16 PM
Quote from: Entropy on May 26, 2020, 04:49:40 PM
I wonder how many construction projects planned in the near term will be cancelled.  There is going to be a lot of office space available.

I also wonder if there will be a migration of people to cheaper towns/cities as businesses allow more remote work.  Why live in SF if I can live in Salt Lake City and still do my job.  Even with a pay cut, ones purchasing power might be better.  Remote work would also expand talent access. 
I suspect most of the people who choose to live in SF, or in NYC, or in downtown Chicago are choosing to do so for reasons that suggest they'd rather be there and deal with the cost and everything else rather than being in SLC. 

I'm wondering what it's going to do to the single-family home real estate market... Partly because I'd like to buy back in at some point after having to sell the house 4 years ago in the divorce.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 26, 2020, 04:57:53 PM
Quote from: Entropy on May 26, 2020, 04:49:40 PM
I wonder how many construction projects planned in the near term will be cancelled.  There is going to be a lot of office space available.

I also wonder if there will be a migration of people to cheaper towns/cities as businesses allow more remote work.  Why live in SF if I can live in Salt Lake City and still do my job.  Even with a pay cut, ones purchasing power might be better.  Remote work would also expand talent access. 
Maybe, but there's never going to be a substitute for the trust found in face-to-face meetings with your peers and Leadership.  Performance being roughly equal, the remote guy in Salt Lake that I've never met in person, is likely the first one I'm going to fire or lay off, over the rest of the team that's here in the Bay Area with me, that I see at our biweekly staff meeting when we're all in the office together.  Know what I mean?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 26, 2020, 05:03:53 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 26, 2020, 04:56:16 PM
I suspect most of the people who choose to live in SF, or in NYC, or in downtown Chicago are choosing to do so for reasons that suggest they'd rather be there and deal with the cost and everything else rather than being in SLC.

I'm wondering what it's going to do to the single-family home real estate market... Partly because I'd like to buy back in at some point after having to sell the house 4 years ago in the divorce.
So far, nothing, except that people just aren't listing right now. There is not a lot on the market in most places, and the prices have not come down.

We haven't seen a new order from Lennar for about a month now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 26, 2020, 05:12:36 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 26, 2020, 05:03:53 PM
So far, nothing, except that people just aren't listing right now. There is not a lot on the market in most places, and the prices have not come down.

We haven't seen a new order from Lennar for about a month now.
Single family home real estate market here is still hot.  People that wanted or needed to move are still doing it.  My realtor friends have seen very little drop in overall sales, but they've actually wasted less time with looky-loo type clients, because the only people willing to interact with other humans enough to buy or sell a home during all of this, have been very serious and very motivated to get it done quickly.

They're actually kind of loving it, wasting a lot less time on non-serious buyers, for the most part.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 26, 2020, 05:22:15 PM
My daughter closed today on refinancing her house with a 2.99% 30 year rate

My son just finished renting a house which he will move into Thursday

so as far as this family is concerned the single family real estate business is booming
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 26, 2020, 05:31:45 PM
Quote from: Entropy on May 26, 2020, 04:49:40 PM
I wonder how many construction projects planned in the near term will be cancelled.  There is going to be a lot of office space available.

Me too, all the construction projects around us are going full bore, including some that just finished demo.

I'm a bit surprised.  This is a big convention town, and without conventions ....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 26, 2020, 06:20:51 PM
Interesting day looking at the data.

Traditionally Sun/Mon have been very low, with Tuesday appearing to be the "catch up day". I've always wondered why it's Tuesday instead of Monday. I was trying to figure out whether there was something unique to Tuesday, or whether the pattern just somehow worked out to be "the second day after the weekend".

Well, today is Tuesday and the numbers are coming in very very low so far. Which suggests that either something really good is happening, or it means there's an extra day lag because yesterday was a holiday. 

Does that mean that tomorrow will look like a particularly large catch up day to account for the extra day of limited reporting? Or will it look like a typical catch up day and then the rest of the week proceed according to the normal pattern? If so, where did those missing deaths go? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 26, 2020, 06:22:53 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 26, 2020, 03:10:19 PM
But the overwhelming evidence suggests the exact opposite.
Your evidence - not mine,yours,I've went after info on people dying around here like Seal Team 6 went after Bin Laden sorry your numbers don't stack up I know some numbers that do people loosing businesses.If I have an underlying condition then perhaps i ramp things up.As far as I know and i keep inquiring on a very major Hospital and 2 big retirement homes - nobody toes up.So has the Arch Angel Michael perched on Cleveland's west side?Or just the many insiders lying to me - gotta be a conspiracy right or Liars or the hand of God.I'm sure precautions do work somewhat to an extant,lot of carnival barking however
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 26, 2020, 06:40:22 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 26, 2020, 06:20:51 PM
Interesting day looking at the data.

Traditionally Sun/Mon have been very low, with Tuesday appearing to be the "catch up day". I've always wondered why it's Tuesday instead of Monday. I was trying to figure out whether there was something unique to Tuesday, or whether the pattern just somehow worked out to be "the second day after the weekend".

Well, today is Tuesday and the numbers are coming in very very low so far. Which suggests that either something really good is happening, or it means there's an extra day lag because yesterday was a holiday.

Does that mean that tomorrow will look like a particularly large catch up day to account for the extra day of limited reporting? Or will it look like a typical catch up day and then the rest of the week proceed according to the normal pattern? If so, where did those missing deaths go?

I expected the holiday to delay the catch-up in reporting so I expect tomorrow to be the big post-weekend spike.  If it's not, that will be welcome, but if not, then it's what I expect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 26, 2020, 06:44:53 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 26, 2020, 05:03:53 PM
So far, nothing, except that people just aren't listing right now. There is not a lot on the market in most places, and the prices have not come down.

We haven't seen a new order from Lennar for about a month now.
Yes, being in that business I am happy to say that home prices are actually on the rise in most major markets, and for the reasons you mentioned.  Those who would normally list and make their next move have hesitated, creating a shortage of inventory and thereby appreciating values.

also, during the crisis of the late 2000s we all got desensitized to rapidly depreciating values, but in this case the economic fundamentals associated with real estate are still very sound.   That was not the case then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 26, 2020, 06:45:40 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 26, 2020, 06:22:53 PM
Your evidence - not mine,yours,I've went after info on people dying around here like Seal Team 6 went after Bin Laden sorry your numbers don't stack up I know some numbers that do people loosing businesses.If I have an underlying condition then perhaps i ramp things up.As far as I know and i keep inquiring on a very major Hospital and 2 big retirement homes - nobody toes up.So has the Arch Angel Michael perched on Cleveland's west side?Or just the many insiders lying to me - gotta be a conspiracy right or Liars or the hand of God.I'm sure precautions do work somewhat to an extant,lot of carnival however
I will admit, I have seen plenty of evidence in both directions on this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 26, 2020, 07:00:33 PM
The residential area just north of us is highly sought after and usually a For Sale sign disappears in days once it's up.  Of late, they have been lingering quite a bit longer and there are a lot more signs as a result.  The condo market around us is tight still (last I checked).

There is nothing in our building on the market.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 26, 2020, 07:44:16 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/cL2CMXn.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 26, 2020, 07:48:23 PM
Good news on the local front.  Local hospitals down to just 1,500 COVID patients.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 26, 2020, 07:49:47 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 26, 2020, 07:44:16 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/cL2CMXn.png)
😂😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 26, 2020, 11:41:56 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 26, 2020, 07:44:16 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/cL2CMXn.png)
This is tremendous. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 27, 2020, 12:14:17 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 26, 2020, 07:44:16 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/cL2CMXn.png)
Amazing. LOL.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 27, 2020, 07:18:37 AM
After four days of concerning figures on "new cases", GA has had three days of fairly modest figures, so perhaps there is no surge around these parts.  There is no decline either.  Another hotspot has come to pass over nearer Augusta, a rural county.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 27, 2020, 08:14:47 AM
Florida seems to be doing OK. Positive tests are at 5.7% right now, overall, but are running more like 2% recently.

There are occasional spikes in daily cases, but that could be reporting issues. Deaths have really dropped. The past 2 days there have been 2 deaths, down from a peak of 59 on May 4.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on May 27, 2020, 09:11:55 AM
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/rankings-and-ratings/10-states-with-the-best-worst-health-infrastructure-during-pandemic.html?utm_content=130205955&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-42664672 (https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/rankings-and-ratings/10-states-with-the-best-worst-health-infrastructure-during-pandemic.html?utm_content=130205955&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-42664672)

10 best and worst states with health infrastructure...   not really what I expected.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on May 27, 2020, 09:16:23 AM
Quote from: utee94 on May 26, 2020, 04:57:53 PM
Maybe, but there's never going to be a substitute for the trust found in face-to-face meetings with your peers and Leadership.  Performance being roughly equal, the remote guy in Salt Lake that I've never met in person, is likely the first one I'm going to fire or lay off, over the rest of the team that's here in the Bay Area with me, that I see at our biweekly staff meeting when we're all in the office together.  Know what I mean?

 we are old... so yes, I do.

The generations coming into the workplace are probably more comfortable talking on skype or zoom than they are in person.   I don't think companies will go completely virtual, but there will be more flexibility and for some roles, it won't matter.    
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 27, 2020, 09:32:30 AM
Quote from: Entropy on May 27, 2020, 09:11:55 AM
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/rankings-and-ratings/10-states-with-the-best-worst-health-infrastructure-during-pandemic.html?utm_content=130205955&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-42664672 (https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/rankings-and-ratings/10-states-with-the-best-worst-health-infrastructure-during-pandemic.html?utm_content=130205955&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-42664672)

10 best and worst states with health infrastructure...  not really what I expected.


surprised to see Arizona on 10 worst list
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on May 27, 2020, 09:34:12 AM
https://wallethub.com/edu/states-with-best-health-infrastructure-for-coronavirus-pandemic/74483/#methodology (https://wallethub.com/edu/states-with-best-health-infrastructure-for-coronavirus-pandemic/74483/#methodology)

this is the link to the methodology.   I get that it is focused around the pandemic, but I'm still surprised by some on the top 10 based upon historical rankings of care and health within those states.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 27, 2020, 09:45:05 AM
Quote from: Entropy on May 27, 2020, 09:11:55 AM
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/rankings-and-ratings/10-states-with-the-best-worst-health-infrastructure-during-pandemic.html?utm_content=130205955&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-42664672 (https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/rankings-and-ratings/10-states-with-the-best-worst-health-infrastructure-during-pandemic.html?utm_content=130205955&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-42664672)

10 best and worst states with health infrastructure...  not really what I expected.


all of the 10 best are red states

9 of 10 of the 10 worst are blue states

is that just a fluke or is there an underlying reason
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 27, 2020, 09:47:02 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 27, 2020, 08:14:47 AM
Florida seems to be doing OK. Positive tests are at 5.7% right now, overall, but are running more like 2% recently.

There are occasional spikes in daily cases, but that could be reporting issues. Deaths have really dropped. The past 2 days there have been 2 deaths, down from a peak of 59 on May 4.
BTW right now there's a huge problem with case numbers because some states have been including positive antibody tests in the same reporting as positive confirmed [i.e. active] tests.

This has a corollary in that it has allowed to "rapidly increase our testing capacity" which seems to skew towards a lower percentage of positive tests, as the antibody tests are targeted at asymptomatic people whereas the PCR tests are targeted at people who legitimately think they have COVID.

As my wife's friend's 2 year old is known to say... "Issa mess."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 27, 2020, 09:51:09 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 27, 2020, 09:47:02 AM
BTW right now there's a huge problem with case numbers because some states have been including positive antibody tests in the same reporting as positive confirmed [i.e. active] tests.

This has a corollary in that it has allowed to "rapidly increase our testing capacity" which seems to skew towards a lower percentage of positive tests, as the antibody tests are targeted at asymptomatic people whereas the PCR tests are targeted at people who legitimately think they have COVID.

As my wife's friend's 2 year old is known to say... "Issa mess."
thats exactly why I think hospitalizations and deaths are the best indication of how well a state is doing

testing is controlled by the state but hospitalizations and deaths arent
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 27, 2020, 10:00:45 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 26, 2020, 06:22:53 PM
Your evidence - not mine,yours,I've went after info on people dying around here like Seal Team 6 went after Bin Laden sorry your numbers don't stack up I know some numbers that do people loosing businesses.If I have an underlying condition then perhaps i ramp things up.As far as I know and i keep inquiring on a very major Hospital and 2 big retirement homes - nobody toes up.So has the Arch Angel Michael perched on Cleveland's west side?Or just the many insiders lying to me - gotta be a conspiracy right or Liars or the hand of God.I'm sure precautions do work somewhat to an extant,lot of carnival barking however
How many beers in were you?  Lol
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 27, 2020, 10:32:02 AM
Quote from: Entropy on May 27, 2020, 09:16:23 AM
we are old... so yes, I do.

The generations coming into the workplace are probably more comfortable talking on skype or zoom than they are in person.  I don't think companies will go completely virtual, but there will be more flexibility and for some roles, it won't matter.   

People my age and older are still upper management, and will be for the next decade.  I don't see some major shift coming in the next few years, pandemic or no.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 27, 2020, 10:32:29 AM
GA hospitalizations are holding flat, slight down trend.  The jump in new cases has apparently dropped a fair bit.  No disaster yet, but not fantastic news either.

A LOT of restaurants now have reopened or are about to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 27, 2020, 10:32:56 AM
Florida's reporting has been given high marks by Dr. Birx. I think they are doing it pretty well here.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/328990-dr-deborah-birx-highlights-florida-department-of-health-covid-19-website (https://floridapolitics.com/archives/328990-dr-deborah-birx-highlights-florida-department-of-health-covid-19-website)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 27, 2020, 10:35:59 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 27, 2020, 10:32:29 AM
GA hospitalizations are holding flat, slight down trend.  The jump in new cases has apparently dropped a fair bit.  No disaster yet, but not fantastic news either.

A LOT of restaurants now have reopened or are about to.
Pretty much the same here in Texico.  Hospitalizations on a downward trend, the peak was 5/5.  Deaths also on a downward trend, the peak was 5/14 and 5/15.  I haven't seen today's numbers so not sure if we'll get some "catch-up" after the holiday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 27, 2020, 10:44:28 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 27, 2020, 09:51:09 AM
thats exactly why I think hospitalizations and deaths are the best indication of how well a state is doing

testing is controlled by the state but hospitalizations and deaths arent
Agreed 100%. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 27, 2020, 10:53:23 AM
I made a run to Walmart, which means a couple miles on I-75 there and back.  I would not normally do this anywhere near 8 AM.  Traffic remains quite light.

I have not been on MARTA obviously but I imagine they are running at 20%, their buses look near empty when I see one, they reduced their schedules.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 27, 2020, 02:09:22 PM
CDC Says Possibly 'Less Than Half' Of Positive Antibody Tests Are Correct

https://www.forbesmiddleeast.com/industry/healthcare/cdc-says-possibly-less-than-half-of-positive-antibody-tests-are-correct (https://www.forbesmiddleeast.com/industry/healthcare/cdc-says-possibly-less-than-half-of-positive-antibody-tests-are-correct)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 27, 2020, 02:19:40 PM
Well that's discouraging
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 27, 2020, 02:28:34 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 27, 2020, 02:09:22 PM
CDC Says Possibly 'Less Than Half' Of Positive Antibody Tests Are Correct

https://www.forbesmiddleeast.com/industry/healthcare/cdc-says-possibly-less-than-half-of-positive-antibody-tests-are-correct (https://www.forbesmiddleeast.com/industry/healthcare/cdc-says-possibly-less-than-half-of-positive-antibody-tests-are-correct)


That's a clickbait headline...

They're talking about a statistical problem that we've talked about here (the Santa Clara study). The reliability power of a test depends heavily on how prevalent the disease is. If it's not very prevalent, the problem of false positive rate is MUCH worse.

When prevalence is very low in a population, you can't really trust the studies very well. I.e. if you have a test that has a 0.5% false positive rate (0.3-0.8% with 95% confidence interval), and you measure a population and only have 1.5% positive results, it's possible that more than half of your positive results are false positives. In that case anyone who got a positive result may only be 47-80% able to trust whether they've got the disease (accounting for the confidence interval) or is only 66% likely that their test is correct (assuming 0.5%).

If your test has a 0.5% false positive rate and you test a population and you get a 50% positive rate, then you know only <2% of those who test positive are likely to be false positives. So if you are one of those people who test positive, you know there's a greater than 98% chance your test is accurate. 

What the CDC actually said is that due to the combination of the low prevalence and the false positive rate, someone who tests positive can't easily assume they actually DID have it and they're now immune, so they shouldn't feel invulnerable and not take reasonable precautions against infection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 27, 2020, 02:44:44 PM
Well sure, I understand the statistical implications,  but it's the same problem regardless.  You test positive, but can't be anywhere close to certain that you actually were positive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 27, 2020, 02:48:02 PM
Yeah, but the layman will think that means the test itself is crap. 

Especially because most laymen won't read the story, they'll just read the headline. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 27, 2020, 02:58:20 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 27, 2020, 10:32:56 AM
Florida's reporting has been given high marks by Dr. Birx. I think they are doing it pretty well here.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/328990-dr-deborah-birx-highlights-florida-department-of-health-covid-19-website (https://floridapolitics.com/archives/328990-dr-deborah-birx-highlights-florida-department-of-health-covid-19-website)


But that doesn’t fit the narrative for a large number of media talking heads??   Perhaps that’s why the keep saying Florida is gaming the numbers.  😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 27, 2020, 04:25:29 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on May 27, 2020, 02:58:20 PM
But that doesn’t fit the narrative for a large number of media talking heads??  Perhaps that’s why the keep saying Florida is gaming the numbers.  😂
The entire mainstream media is a joke. It blows my mind that the people in the media cannot see this. It’s why when Trump attacks them and calls them fake news it lands. It actually lands with a vast majority of the public. 

I find it hilarious that when this thing first broke out all the media idiots in New York were trashing Florida and it’s governor and saying Florida was going to be a disaster and the worst outbreak in the country. Turns out they were wrong. Turns out the governor from NY that they were practically blowing is the one who bungled the hit and had the worst outbreak in the entire f’ing world. AND THEY STILL PRACTICALLY BLEW HIM ON TV AND ONLINE AND IN PRINT. Why? Because he held press conferences on tv and played the tv character role of a leader- when in reality the guy was absolutely awful. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2020, 07:50:20 AM
New cases reported in GA by day:
                                         NCs     7 day moving avg

(https://i.imgur.com/Dbey5dI.png)

It appears to have stabilized.  We have been quasi-open for over a month.  They also report hospitalizations, which is trending down but starting to level out.

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/)

There should be a 10-17 day lag in cause and effect obviously.  We've had no disaster, but the "reopening" has been very gradual around me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 28, 2020, 07:56:02 AM
I went to the dentist yesterday, which was interesting.  I waited in my car until they called me in, and wore a mask until I got to my seat, which seemed a little goofy since then I sat there unmasked for for 45 minutes while they cleaned my teeth.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2020, 08:04:28 AM
The dental folks should be wearing face shields, mine did before all this happened.

The risk if they do should be minimal.  You wear a mask to get into the room so as not to infect anyone else in the office.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 28, 2020, 08:14:24 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 28, 2020, 08:04:28 AM
The dental folks should be wearing face shields, mine did before all this happened.

The risk if they do should be minimal.  You wear a mask to get into the room so as not to infect anyone else in the office.
No shit
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 28, 2020, 08:17:47 AM
She wore a face shield and mask, though seems doubtful that would do a whole lot given she was working right above my face for a long time.  In any event not complaining just obervating.  The dentist is one place where I'm not sure there is anything one can do to prevent transmission given that level of close contact.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 28, 2020, 08:41:00 AM
The place I go to has always worn shields, so nothing will change there. Now they will most certainly wear masks though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2020, 09:01:29 AM
The face shield thing started up for me at the dentist when HIV started to be significant.  It's to reduce the chance of any blood spattering hitting the hygienist's face.

Surgeons will wear one as well often as not unless they know the patient is "clean".  I think it would be reasonably effective at intercepting droplets if a patient sneezes or coughs or spits randomly.  Of course, as a patient you are being exposed should anyone looking in your mouth be infected, same as with a barber etc.

I think the risks are nominal.  I'd be more cautious if one is in the vulnerable groups.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2020, 09:46:21 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/pQFZOIe.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2020, 09:49:32 AM
A lot of folks want the MSM to tell them what they WANT to hear and see, instead of "real news".  The various outlets are after eyeballs, they are commercial enterprises (in general) and they thrive (or die) on ratings.  So, it is in their interest to "shape the news" so as to attract as many eyeballs as possible.

An alternative would be to have only government shaped news, which I'd argue would be undesirable.

It's up to us as "consumers" to check and recheck what is not being reported, what may be misleading of false, and be suspicious of any report that is salacious or unlikely or radical.  The real news more often is boring stuff.  I don't think there is any single outlet that is reliable, but taken en masses, I think one can get a reasonable picture of what's happening.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 28, 2020, 10:03:12 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 28, 2020, 09:49:32 AM
A lot of folks want the MSM to tell them what they WANT to hear and see, instead of "real news".  The various outlets are after eyeballs, they are commercial enterprises (in general) and they thrive (or die) on ratings.  So, it is in their interest to "shape the news" so as to attract as many eyeballs as possible.

An alternative would be to have only government shaped news, which I'd argue would be undesirable.

It's up to us as "consumers" to check and recheck what is not being reported, what may be misleading of false, and be suspicious of any report that is salacious or unlikely or radical.  The real news more often is boring stuff.  I don't think there is any single outlet that is reliable, but taken en masses, I think one can get a reasonable picture of what's happening.
I think it's even worse in the internet era... Your various sites are tracking what you read and engage with, and they proactively feed you more of that (because clearly you like that content so why not more of it)? My news.google.com feed will be a lot different from your news.google.com feed because Google knows what I read and what I'm more likely to click on.

The end result is that your own news sources build your echo chamber up even further, and it then seems like what you're not seeing is not being reported on, rather than it being filtered out because you engaged with something else much more heavily.

This whole internet thing was a mistake. Al Gore should be ashamed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 28, 2020, 10:10:21 AM
"Twitter is the downfall of society."

-Charlie Strong





And you know, he was widely mocked for saying that, but I'm not so sure he's wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 28, 2020, 10:41:25 AM
Quote from: utee94 on May 28, 2020, 10:10:21 AM
"Twitter is the downfall of society."

-Charlie Strong

And you know, he was widely mocked for saying that, but I'm not so sure he's wrong.

I still think Facebook is worse.

"Let's take the extended family members who you have deliberately been doing your best to not see more than once or twice a year, basically only at major holidays, births, or funerals, and subject you to the minutiae of every droll thought or poorly-articulated political position they have, 24/7."

Whatever could go wrong? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2020, 10:51:42 AM
I find FB to be entertaining, and somewhat illuminating.  Those are pluses in my book.

It is certainly used to circulate idiotic twaddle and falsehoods, but so is rumor and innuendo verbally, and that cannot be readily countered.

I think foreign bots have generated a lot of misleading memes about wearing a face mask, and they seem difficult to counter there are so many.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 28, 2020, 11:03:23 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 28, 2020, 10:51:42 AM
I find FB to be entertaining, and somewhat illuminating.  Those are pluses in my book.

It is certainly used to circulate idiotic twaddle and falsehoods, but so is rumor and innuendo verbally, and that cannot be readily countered.

I think foreign bots have generated a lot of misleading memes about wearing a face mask, and they seem difficult to counter there are so many.
They identified that 50% of "open XXXX" facebook and twitter posts were bots.

pretty nuts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2020, 11:07:13 AM
I don't see anywhere near that percentage as being likely of bot origin, maybe two percent.  I see a lot of animal photos and memes, I don't know why a bot would produce them.  Some are rather amusing, with zero political relevance.

The one's that have some political relevance may be half bots, I don't know, but I frankly don't see that many on my feed in FB, they are usually from the same 4 or 5 people, equally distributed on each side.  One guy is truly consumed with anything negative about Trump, which is fine, but he seems a bit unbalanced.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 28, 2020, 11:39:46 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 28, 2020, 11:07:13 AM
I don't see anywhere near that percentage as being likely of bot origin, maybe two percent.  I see a lot of animal photos and memes, I don't know why a bot would produce them.  Some are rather amusing, with zero political relevance.

The one's that have some political relevance may be half bots, I don't know, but I frankly don't see that many on my feed in FB, they are usually from the same 4 or 5 people, equally distributed on each side.  One guy is truly consumed with anything negative about Trump, which is fine, but he seems a bit unbalanced.


https://www.businessinsider.com/nearly-half-of-reopen-america-twitter-accounts-are-bots-report-2020-5

https://www.businessinsider.com/nearly-half-of-reopen-america-twitter-accounts-are-bots-report-2020-5 (https://www.businessinsider.com/nearly-half-of-reopen-america-twitter-accounts-are-bots-report-2020-5)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2020, 11:51:49 AM
Yeah, nearly half of a subset of twitter accounts are bots, I could see that.  I don't do Twitter, but I could believe half of any political group might be bots.

But not half of all accounts, or all FB memes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 28, 2020, 11:52:19 AM
I think CD is talking more about Facebook than twitter.

And I don't have many problems with Facebook. It's a great way to keep extended family and distant friends up to date about my kids, and what we're up to as a family. And for me to follow their activities, likewise.

If people post annoying political crap I just ignore it.  From my observation, people who get upset about Facebook posts, are looking for a fight anyway.  I have no interest in that so it's easy to ignore.

I'd say that I think twitter is worse, except I don't see enough twitter even to know, really.  Certainly anytime someone tries to cite a twitter quote as a news source, I 100% ignore it.  But I don't get on twitter deliberately anyway, so really the only time I see it is when someone on Facebook, or a message board, quotes it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2020, 11:52:42 AM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 28, 2020, 11:03:23 AM
They identified that 50% of "open XXXX" facebook and twitter posts were bots.

pretty nuts.
I don't know what "open XXXX" means.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 28, 2020, 12:02:44 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 28, 2020, 09:46:21 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/pQFZOIe.png)
I think the stock market is overvalued at the moment.  Certainly there will be an economic downturn that will last for months or possibly longer.  It's weird to see the stock market going up while unemployment numbers are at all time highs. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 28, 2020, 12:07:50 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 28, 2020, 11:52:19 AM
I think CD is talking more about Facebook than twitter.

And I don't have many problems with Facebook. It's a great way to keep extended family and distant friends up to date about my kids, and what we're up to as a family. And for me to follow their activities, likewise.

If people post annoying political crap I just ignore it.  From my observation, people who get upset about Facebook posts, are looking for a fight anyway.  I have no interest in that so it's easy to ignore.

I'd say that I think twitter is worse, except I don't see enough twitter even to know, really.  Certainly anytime someone tries to cite a twitter quote as a news source, I 100% ignore it.  But I don't get on twitter deliberately anyway, so really the only time I see it is when someone on Facebook, or a message board, quotes it.
There are things I love about facebook.  I had a conversation with a guy I haven't seen in 25 years just yesterday.  Because I travel a lot, I will often look to see who I know that might be in the area.  It's great for that.

However, the endless political battles, fake news, conspiracy theories, and multi-level marketing stuff is ALMOST is enough for me to delete it entirely. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2020, 12:08:34 PM
It is VERY typical for the stock market to go UP when unemployment reaches its zenith. 

That doesn't mean we can't see a dead cat bounce here, but in history, the turning point has nearly always been the peak of UE.  The issue is being sure about that peak.

https://www.crystalbull.com/stock-market-timing/Unemployment-chart/ (https://www.crystalbull.com/stock-market-timing/Unemployment-chart/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2020, 12:13:35 PM
I'd also note that a lot of money got pulled out of the market over the past 3 months and went to cash (equivalents), and you can't get much yield at all there.  Interest rates won't go much lower, and are likely to go higher, making any fixed income investment a bad bet.

So, investors are assessing stocks as the lesser risk.  I have been nibbling some, i went pretty hard into cash back in August, more than my core model would recommend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 28, 2020, 12:17:41 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 28, 2020, 12:07:50 PM
There are things I love about facebook.  I had a conversation with a guy I haven't seen in 25 years just yesterday.  Because I travel a lot, I will often look to see who I know that might be in the area.  It's great for that.

However, the endless political battles, fake news, conspiracy theories, and multi-level marketing stuff is ALMOST is enough for me to delete it entirely. 
Yeah.  Like I said, that stuff doesn't bother me because I just ignore it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 28, 2020, 12:18:47 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 28, 2020, 12:08:34 PM
It is VERY typical for the stock market to go UP when unemployment reaches its zenith. 

That doesn't mean we can't see a dead cat bounce here, but in history, the turning point has nearly always been the peak of UE.  The issue is being sure about that peak.

https://www.crystalbull.com/stock-market-timing/Unemployment-chart/ (https://www.crystalbull.com/stock-market-timing/Unemployment-chart/)

I don't think this is a typical UE situation.  

I'm of the opinion that most of our UE is temporary.  Most people will get their jobs back once things start to reopen.  

HOWEVER, not everyone will get their jobs back.  This "long term unemployment" would be more comparable with your link.  I don't think we have quite peaked there yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 28, 2020, 12:19:12 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 28, 2020, 12:07:50 PM
However, the endless political battles, fake news, conspiracy theories, and multi-level marketing stuff is ALMOST is enough for me to delete it entirely. 
Yep. I couldn't take it. I couldn't look at it and not want to argue with someone--or punch someone in the face. 

I still have a FB account, but it basically exists so that I can use Messenger. I never log into FB to look at posts. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 28, 2020, 12:23:16 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 28, 2020, 12:19:12 PM
Yep. I couldn't take it. I couldn't look at it and not want to argue with someone--or punch someone in the face.

I still have a FB account, but it basically exists so that I can use Messenger. I never log into FB to look at posts.
Punch some one in the face!  I have to say- I busted out laughing seeing that from you.   😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 28, 2020, 12:23:36 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 28, 2020, 12:18:47 PM
I don't think this is a typical UE situation. 

I'm of the opinion that most of our UE is temporary.  Most people will get their jobs back once things start to reopen. 

HOWEVER, not everyone will get their jobs back.  This "long term unemployment" would be more comparable with your link.  I don't think we have quite peaked there yet.
Much of this depends on what certain states decide to do, and when. If people weren't wearing masks, you wouldn't know a pandemic exists here in Florida.

Things are going to look much different, to me, when I go back to Illinois next week. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2020, 12:30:37 PM
Investors are anticipating a V-shaped recovery.  That in itself is a hopeful sign.  Whether they are right or not, I can't say.  I'm pretty sure the markets will drop back for a few days soonish.  

The Fed and the government have pumped enormous unprecedented liquidity into the economy, and in that scenario, would you rather own assets like stocks, or bonds?  Or cash?



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 28, 2020, 12:45:57 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on May 28, 2020, 12:23:16 PM
Punch some one in the face!  I have to say- I busted out laughing seeing that from you.  😂
I'm a patient guy... FB tests that greatly lol.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 28, 2020, 12:55:14 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 28, 2020, 12:23:36 PM
Much of this depends on what certain states decide to do, and when. If people weren't wearing masks, you wouldn't know a pandemic exists here in Florida.

Things are going to look much different, to me, when I go back to Illinois next week.
I can't imagine Florida will bounce back 100% with tourism drastically reduced.  Even so, I can't imagine Florida being effected as much as the Northeast. 

PA numbers are looking great and getting better every day.  Hopefully I'm wrong about the long term stuff
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 28, 2020, 01:08:56 PM
Disney is opening soon (not in California). People will go.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 28, 2020, 01:13:28 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 27, 2020, 04:25:29 PM
The entire mainstream media is a joke. It blows my mind that the people in the media cannot see this. It’s why when Trump attacks them and calls them fake news it lands. It actually lands with a vast majority of the public.

I'd assume they do, or at least see that they're seen this way.

But considering the sort of irrationality of media criticism in general (doing it it's difficult and takes time and focus and no one does it), I'd assume they're caught in a vice of having no real way out. (The fake news thing landing for a vast majority seems like a stretch, but whatever).

Basically, people like to complain. And they'll focus on the thing that gets their dander up most. And if someone tamps down the thing that bothers them, lets say starts crapping on the NY gov and aggressively publishing how the numbers Florida is putting out look good, then the complaints will just migrate. Part of the experience of consuming media and lamenting it is taking a massive undertaking, literally multiple times the number of hours of the day in content, and reducing it to a feeling that often bases on a few chyrons or headlines of articles we don't read in much depth. 

Michigan grad and Vox writer Jane Coaston summed it up rather nicely: Again, there is no more deeply felt, bipartisan view than “everyone is very unfair to us and very nice to our opposition.”

So if one doesn't like the media, then consume as little of it as possible. It'll still creep in, but minimize it. And when one does, look for outlets you trust and ride with them. If those don't exist, then why are you consuming in the first place? (Unless some of the joy is in the complaining, which would be my theory for a lot of it)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2020, 01:47:44 PM
I don't think anyone sensible thinks this recovery will "bounce back all the way" and quickly.  But, if you have funds to invest, where do you put the funds? If you bought "X" because it's PE was 30 before the crash and interest rates were 3%, what do you do when interest rates are under 1%?  The stock is worth more in comparison.

This is probably a good time for some version of dollar cost averaging.

It will take conventions and air travel for Atlanta to recover 90%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 28, 2020, 01:50:22 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 28, 2020, 01:08:56 PM
Disney is opening soon (not in California). People will go.
Of course they will.

The experience before involved hot weather, crowds, mewling children, sky-high prices and spawned an industry of bars so mom and dad could drink away some of the stress of the visit. 

If you're willing to go through all that, a disease that's only potentially deadly won't stop you. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2020, 01:57:09 PM
Yeah, I took my three to Disney World .... once.  They didn't ask to go back either.  And it wasn't a disaster, just hot, crowded, expensive, and not really fun.  We'd go to the park near Cincy each year for free anyway, it was sufficient.  King's Island.  When they got old enough, they went there on their own without me, if they wanted.

There is this French beach resort in South Carolina that two of them liked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 28, 2020, 01:59:00 PM
My i s c & a aggie wife keeps trying to plan a trip to Disney World.  The kids like the idea but aren't insisting on it. I have zero desire to go and keep squashing it.  

The Coronas might be my final solution for ending this potential trip once and for all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 28, 2020, 02:06:23 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 28, 2020, 01:59:00 PM
My i s c & a aggie wife keeps trying to plan a trip to Disney World.  The kids like the idea but aren't insisting on it. I have zero desire to go and keep squashing it. 

The Coronas might be my final solution for ending this potential trip once and for all.

I got dragged there a couple years ago. Though Disney without the throngs of people in it might be...nice? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2020, 02:12:51 PM
I was tempted to take the wife to Epcot to see the French pavilion, but didn't.  I did take her finally to the Biltmore House.  She liked the gardens, and Asheville in general.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 28, 2020, 02:30:01 PM
Some of my fondest memories come from taking the wife my 4 year old boy and my 8 year old daughter to Disney World

If you decide to visit Disney World bring money and lots of it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2020, 02:33:22 PM
I would pay money NOT to go if somehow I otherwise had to, same with all those other "attractions" down there.  Our fantasy baseball was in Orlando before and some families would go while we were playing.  The wife has been to Euro Disney.  You see signs for it on the freeway from 50 km away as if it was a city or town.

I'd rather go to Vegas and see the Eiffel Tower.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 28, 2020, 04:27:30 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 28, 2020, 01:50:22 PM
Of course they will.

The experience before involved hot weather, crowds, mewling children, sky-high prices and spawned an industry of bars so mom and dad could drink away some of the stress of the visit.

If you're willing to go through all that, a disease that's only potentially deadly won't stop you.
After a single day at Disney, I'm praying for a swift death. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 28, 2020, 04:36:14 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 28, 2020, 04:27:30 PM
After a single day at Disney, I'm praying for a swift death.
Ah, well then The Coronas are not for you my friend...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on May 28, 2020, 04:36:45 PM
We were planning Disney this year.  After our foster daughter was placed though, we didn't have the heart.  Turned out for the best there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2020, 04:42:14 PM
That story was painful to read about.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 28, 2020, 05:02:45 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 28, 2020, 02:12:51 PM
I was tempted to take the wife to Epcot to see the French pavilion, but didn't.  I did take her finally to the Biltmore House.  She liked the gardens, and Asheville in general.
I enjoyed Epcot, mostly because they had like 30 kiosks that each had a few small dishes and drinks that were inspired by the various regions of the world and were generally pretty high quality. 

Driving through the grounds of the Biltmore was also something I'll always remember.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 28, 2020, 05:44:40 PM
Disney World's (FL) Magic Kingdom averages around 55,000 people a day.  First of all, that's NUTS.  I wouldn't have guessed that high in a million years.
Anyway, yeah, imagine if they cut it off at 10,000.  That'd be so much nicer. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on May 28, 2020, 06:08:08 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 28, 2020, 12:18:47 PM
I don't think this is a typical UE situation. 

I'm of the opinion that most of our UE is temporary.  Most people will get their jobs back once things start to reopen. 

HOWEVER, not everyone will get their jobs back.  This "long term unemployment" would be more comparable with your link.  I don't think we have quite peaked there yet.

Unemployment will stay high at least through July with the minimum unemployment payment in Arizona being $717 per week with the $600 fed payment that means people are making at least $18 per hour without working. And since you don't have to look for a job under the temporary rules, lots of people are not going to work until the bonus runs out.

I know that we are hiring all kinds of trades right now and our applications are down over 50% of what is typical. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on May 28, 2020, 06:12:31 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 28, 2020, 01:57:09 PM
Yeah, I took my three to Disney World .... once.  They didn't ask to go back either.  And it wasn't a disaster, just hot, crowded, expensive, and not really fun.  We'd go to the park near Cincy each year for free anyway, it was sufficient.  King's Island.  When they got old enough, they went there on their own without me, if they wanted.

There is this French beach resort in South Carolina that two of them liked.
I would take Kings Island over Disney any day of the week. One of the things I loved about living in Cincy was that I could get the family season passes to Kings Island and just go in the evening when the crowds were down and not have to worry about hitting everything while there because we would go another day and catch the other. 

A couple of my kids first jobs were at Kings Island.  And for the record The Beast is the best roller coaster bare none. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on May 28, 2020, 06:14:16 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 28, 2020, 01:50:22 PM
Of course they will.

The experience before involved hot weather, crowds, mewling children, sky-high prices and spawned an industry of bars so mom and dad could drink away some of the stress of the visit.

If you're willing to go through all that, a disease that's only potentially deadly won't stop you.
Which is why to look at vacation company stocks, travel company stocks, Airlines, etc.. So many of them took a dive (stock price) with the pandemic and most of them will probably recover very nicely. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on May 28, 2020, 06:26:16 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on May 28, 2020, 05:02:45 PM
I enjoyed Epcot, mostly because they had like 30 kiosks that each had a few small dishes and drinks that were inspired by the various regions of the world and were generally pretty high quality.

Driving through the grounds of the Biltmore was also something I'll always remember.
Epcot is the one park at Disney that if I were a local I would visit occasionally.  It’s beautiful there and, like you said, there are some good outdoor dining options with different beers and bar type food.

I’ve always heard the adult way to do Epcot is to stop at each country and have a drink, but I’ve always had kids with me on my trips down there.

Quick story. Like most of you I am not a Disney fan, but I’ve taken my kids down there a couple times.  My best friend and his wife are Disney fanatics though. They have been married 8 years and been to Disney 21 times. Several of those before they had their kids.  I pick on him a little about it.  He says he does for her more than him because she enjoys going down there.

I can not imagine 21 trips to Disney, let alone in an 8 year period.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on May 28, 2020, 06:38:05 PM
I did my 2 tours of Disney w kids.  I'm done.  They can go again, and I'll underwrite it, I just won't be there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 28, 2020, 06:38:50 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on May 28, 2020, 06:26:16 PM
Quick story. Like most of you I am not a Disney fan, but I’ve taken my kids down there a couple times.  My best friend and his wife are Disney fanatics though. They have been married 8 years and been to Disney 21 times. Several of those before they had their kids.  I pick on him a little about it.  He says he does for her more than him because she enjoys going down there.

I can not imagine 21 trips to Disney, let alone in an 8 year period.
I don't trust adults with a Disney fascination; particularly male adults.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 28, 2020, 06:41:19 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 28, 2020, 06:38:50 PM
I don't trust adults with a Disney fascination; particularly male adults.
😂. You are on a roll today.  That too made me bust out laughing 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 28, 2020, 06:42:27 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on May 28, 2020, 06:12:31 PM
I would take Kings Island over Disney any day of the week. One of the things I loved about living in Cincy was that I could get the family season passes to Kings Island and just go in the evening when the crowds were down and not have to worry about hitting everything while there because we would go another day and catch the other.

A couple of my kids first jobs were at Kings Island.  And for the record The Beast is the best roller coaster bare none.
The Beast is indeed the best roller coaster
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 28, 2020, 06:59:27 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 28, 2020, 05:44:40 PM
Disney World's (FL) Magic Kingdom averages around 55,000 people a day.  First of all, that's NUTS.  I wouldn't have guessed that high in a million years.
Anyway, yeah, imagine if they cut it off at 10,000.  That'd be so much nicer.
The parking lot at Disney’s Magic kingdom is bigger than all of universal studios lol.

I honestly thought it’d be more than 55k a day. And they’d never cut it off at 10k under normal circumstances. They love money. And they make shit loads of it charging 55k people $200 for a ticket and then ripping them off once they’re inside on things like soda, candy, food, apparel, memorabilia.

That damn mouse is a thief.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 28, 2020, 07:02:24 PM
I like a lot of Disney stuff.  For a long time, their animated musical movies, were the only musical films being produced.  And as a big band/drama/choir nerd, I love musicals and musical films.

I also like what they've done with Marvel/Avengers, and Phineas and Ferb was awesome! :) 

But I have zero desire to go to a Disney theme park.  To do it "right" where you get the fastpass and all that, for a family of 4, is just jaw-droppingly expensive.  I took my family of 4 to a really nice all-inclusive in Mexico for a week including snorkling excursions, SCUBA, sailing around the island on a huge catamaran, and cenote swimming-- all for less than half of what it was going to cost me for a week of Disney (including flights and all that).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 28, 2020, 07:40:08 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on May 28, 2020, 06:42:27 PM
The Beast is indeed the best roller coaster
I dunno there is a couple at Cedar Point I don't think I'd get on.Even if they allowed immediate boarding
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 28, 2020, 08:09:16 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 28, 2020, 06:59:27 PM
The parking lot at Disney’s Magic kingdom is bigger than all of universal studios lol.

I honestly thought it’d be more than 55k a day. And they’d never cut it off at 10k under normal circumstances. They love money. And they make shit loads of it charging 55k people $200 for a ticket and then ripping them off once they’re inside on things like soda, candy, food, apparel, memorabilia.

That damn mouse is a thief.
Yes, we all know that.  I was just saying it would be a much nicer experience.


I lived in Lakeland from when I was 3-9 years old.  We probably went to Disney World at least once a month.  But it was cheaper, very likely less crowded, and I assume we had seasonal or annual passes.  Speedpass wasn't a thing.  We got there early.  It was good.

As an adult, I finally went to Disneyland in CA with some friends (one of which had a kid).  It wasn't bad, sort of like a Vegas for kids, with all the fancy decor/architecture, etc.  But yeah, you wind up asking yourself, "Do I want to wait 40 minutes to go on this ride I don't want to ride or 45 minutes for that other ride I don't care about?"

Disneyland is tiny compared to Disney World.  That was probably my biggest takeaway.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 28, 2020, 10:59:59 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 28, 2020, 07:40:08 PM
I dunno there is a couple at Cedar Point I don't think I'd get on.Even if they allowed immediate boarding
Cedar point has some great roller coasters, and it is something to be out over the lake. But my fondest memories of riding are rising on that hill and looking down into the forest before the Beast drops you into it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on May 28, 2020, 11:42:44 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 28, 2020, 06:38:50 PM
I don't trust adults with a Disney fascination; particularly male adults.
Man, I know what you mean.  But I’ve known this guy 30 years and he’s a standup regular dude.  He had been to Disney once before he met this chick.  He says it’s more her but he doesn’t seem to mind the trips.  I know a few guys who really enjoy Disney as a vacation. Not my cup of tea.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 28, 2020, 11:55:51 PM
I enjoyed Disney World by observing my childrens reaction to it

I would never go there without children

Otherwise its Vegas baby
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 28, 2020, 11:58:15 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 28, 2020, 11:55:51 PM
I enjoyed Disney World by observing my childrens reaction to it

I would never go there without children

Otherwise its Vegas baby
When I was 22, I kinda liked Vegas. 

At 26, I was like, "Parts of this are OK, namely the going from place to place with a drink."

In my early 30s, I want no part of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 29, 2020, 12:01:04 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 28, 2020, 11:58:15 PM
When I was 22, I kinda liked Vegas.

At 26, I was like, "Parts of this are OK, namely the going from place to place with a drink."

In my early 30s, I want no part of it.
Aww I feel the opposite. As I have more cash and can see all the shows I am a lot more into Vegas
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on May 29, 2020, 02:06:38 AM
I am watching the WCCO-TV livestream tonight. I reflect back to when I was a magistrate in Iowa for one year, and came to believe that in the judiciary it is the most underrated position. It is the place where people were most likely to confront the judicial branch. I saw so many people. I felt like that position was the primary judicial barrier between civilized society and anarchy.

Because of high unemployment rates, people have more time on their hands. Just now (12:53 a.m.), a reporter said that around Noon she was told police were considering abandoning the 3rd precinct. The anchors are questioning the reporter in disbelief about this surprising information live at 12:53 a.m. The 3rd precinct was set afire at about 10:30 p.m. or so. There had been about 3-cops firing various things at crowds but they apparently found a way to retreat. There should have been more security.

The video of the killing of George Floyd was brutal. I lived in Minneapolis one summer when I was in college. It is such a great city and had relatively low crime rate. To see the city on fire is brutal. It is anarchy. Many people protesting have a legitimate grievance over what happened, but you still must have governmental security. All of this is horrific, and it would be less horrific if COVID-19 were not present - people would have less time on their hands.

From a criminal law perspective, failure to render aid, would not ordinarily be a criminal violation. Assault causing serious injury, willful injury, and murder are criminal violations. I believe Derek Chauvin is at high risk for criminal liability whereas the others are at high risk for civil liability.

If an administrator thinks my post is too far off-topic remove my post. I won't argue. I am very saddened by all of these developments.

Now the anchors at WCCO-TV just after 1 a.m. here say they hear sounds of rocks being thrown at their building and hesitate. This is as bad as Charlottesville and the Watts riots in the 1960s. My, oh my.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on May 29, 2020, 02:22:18 AM
It is reported by a Twin Cities television station that Derek Chauvin and George Floyd worked for the same employer in security in the same time-frame. It was absolutely horrific to watch that video, but this could also have been something personal. Well - regardless whether it was a personal vendetta, it was still very personal. Note that neither man had a face mask, and I would think the police department would require officers to wear facemasks during COVID-19. https://kstp.com/news/george-floyd-fired-officer-overlapped-security-shifts-at-south-minneapolis-club-may-28-2020/5743990/ (https://kstp.com/news/george-floyd-fired-officer-overlapped-security-shifts-at-south-minneapolis-club-may-28-2020/5743990/)

WCCO-TV is now concerned about prospect that Alliance Field stadium could catch fire.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 29, 2020, 03:40:03 AM
Yeah, it's crazy what can happen when a subset of the population is treated as less-than over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 29, 2020, 03:40:20 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 28, 2020, 11:55:51 PM
I enjoyed Disney World by observing my childrens reaction to it

I would never go there without children
Is this even allowed?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 07:20:06 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 28, 2020, 11:58:15 PM
In my early 30s, I want no part of it.
For what ever reason I use to look at wagering as enhancing my finances.Played all the angles with all the stats.In the end I was just donating to the local Book's pursuits.So I view Lost Wages as Dorothy did the witches castle
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 29, 2020, 08:25:43 AM
I think maybe the only thing more boring than listening to people gloat over all of their sports-betting success, was listening to people talk about their poker success back in the mid 2000s.

It was right after they first started televising the world poker tour on E! or Bravo or whatever, and then a bunch of other poker-playing shows came out, some with celebrities instead of the actual touring poker players, and the like.  And every Tom Dick and Harry actually started either playing online, or meeting in person to play Texas Hold 'em, and over work lunches and happy hours the only thing these jackwagons ever wanted to talk about was how they won this big hand the night before, and I got to hear about all of their brilliant decisions they made after the flop, or the turn, or the river.  Man it was so boring, I finally got to the point where I'd just stand up and walk away when the discussion turned to poker.  People finally got the hint and stopped telling me about their great flop or whatever.  Thank the Lord.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 29, 2020, 08:35:13 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 28, 2020, 06:59:27 PM
The parking lot at Disney’s Magic kingdom is bigger than all of universal studios lol.

I honestly thought it’d be more than 55k a day. And they’d never cut it off at 10k under normal circumstances. They love money. And they make shit loads of it charging 55k people $200 for a ticket and then ripping them off once they’re inside on things like soda, candy, food, apparel, memorabilia.

That damn mouse is a thief.
Yeah, but he pays for our state taxes here!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 29, 2020, 08:36:40 AM
I have some fantastic stories about Hold'em I'll tell here ....


The wife found out last night that our local French restaurant has opened, so we went, dined on their patio which is a bit close to a busy street, but it was fantastic.  We had our favorite server.  I left two $50 bills as tip.  I topped the evening with a snifter of Hennessey XO, which might be my favorite distilled spirit I've ever had.

They were fairly busy, which is good to see, we were worried they would not come back, losing two months of prime season.  They said they had some repairs to do anyway, it's in an old house, and they had the tables split apart.  The weather was fantastic.  I had scallops, which they call Jack something something.  I didn't know Jack did anything about scallops.

Life is returning here, finally.  Numbers continue to be flat, which suggests to me R naught is right at unity.  I'm headed out this morning for a haircut using the wife's "stylist".  She said he was really taking a lot of time and care to ensure everything is safe, so I'm not using my usual Great Clips, which runs about $20 with tip.  This guy is $35 without tip, but he was struggling being out of work apparently.  My government money is going to tips for folks who needed it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 29, 2020, 08:48:28 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 28, 2020, 07:40:08 PM
I dunno there is a couple at Cedar Point I don't think I'd get on.Even if they allowed immediate boarding
When the kids got old enough, we started getting season passes to Cedar Point, so I am very familiar with the coasters there. Also, having grown up in Columbus, we would visit Kings Island quite a bit. As a matter of fact, I rode the Beast the day it opened, many years ago. It was an awesome coaster. The Millennium Force at Ceder Point is also a fantastic ride. They each have their qualities. But what they do have in common is that neither is worth waiting in line for 3 or 4 hours to ride. Also, the older I get, the less interested in riding a coaster I become.

But if I were pressed and based on riding coasters in both parks, I would say that the Beast is probably a notch about anything at Cedar Point. With that being said, if you like riding coasters, Cedar Point is hands down better than Kings Island due to the number of great coasters at Cedar Point compared to Kings Island. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on May 29, 2020, 08:55:38 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 28, 2020, 11:58:15 PM
When I was 22, I kinda liked Vegas.

At 26, I was like, "Parts of this are OK, namely the going from place to place with a drink."

In my early 30s, I want no part of it.
When I was younger, I enjoyed the LV Strip, going from one casino to the next. As I got older, I really began to appreciate the downtown experience. Now that they have the Fremont Street Experience, I REALLY prefer downtown to the strip to the point where I rarely make it to the strip. My personal choice is to stay at the Golden Nugget and just hang around that area. However, the costs of food and beverage have begun to catch up to the prices charged on the strip, so now I find myself no longing to be there much anymore. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 29, 2020, 09:00:31 AM
The best things about Vegas for us are that rental cars are dirt cheap, even convertibles, and there is some beautiful country not too far to drive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 29, 2020, 09:03:04 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 29, 2020, 08:36:40 AM
I have some fantastic stories about Hold'em I'll tell here ....


The wife found out last night that our local French restaurant has opened, so we went, dined on their patio which is a bit close to a busy street, but it was fantastic.  We had our favorite server.  I left two $50 bills as tip.  I topped the evening with a snifter of Hennessey XO, which might be my favorite distilled spirit I've ever had.

They were fairly busy, which is good to see, we were worried they would not come back, losing two months of prime season.  They said they had some repairs to do anyway, it's in an old house, and they had the tables split apart.  The weather was fantastic.  I had scallops, which they call Jack something something.  I didn't know Jack did anything about scallops.

Life is returning here, finally.  Numbers continue to be flat, which suggests to me R naught is right at unity.  I'm headed out this morning for a haircut using the wife's "stylist".  She said he was really taking a lot of time and care to ensure everything is safe, so I'm not using my usual Great Clips, which runs about $20 with tip.  This guy is $35 without tip, but he was struggling being out of work apparently.  My government money is going to tips for folks who needed it.

My FIL once gave me a bottle of Hennessey XO that had been given to him as a gift from a client or something.  He didn't know what it was, never drank Cognac or any kind of brandy, and asked me if I wanted it.  I said..."uhhh, yeah, sure!"

It is indeed delicious.  I can enjoy and do fine with VSOP and even VS varieties of certain Cognac, but that XO was on a different level.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 29, 2020, 09:05:51 AM
The wine bar opens today. I think my wife and I will finally get to sit overlooking Lake Mission Viejo with a glass of wine, and all will be right with the world again. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 29, 2020, 09:07:55 AM
Oh and yes, the French call scallops Saint Jacques.  I once learned the reason when I first visited France 25 years ago, but I've since forgotten.  I suppose google would help but I'm feeling lazy.

I order them often in France or whilst dining at French restaurants.  Coquilles Saint Jacques is a famous preparation for them, served in creamy sauce and covered in a crust of bread crumbs and cheese, and it's delicious.  But I like them just as well, or even better, seared with a little butter over them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on May 29, 2020, 11:44:25 AM
Came across an interesting article in Forbes about the death statistics. Didn't fact check it, but assume since Forbes published it, it was fact checked

https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2020/05/26/nursing-homes-assisted-living-facilities-0-6-of-the-u-s-population-43-of-u-s-covid-19-deaths/#2e5589f474cd (https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2020/05/26/nursing-homes-assisted-living-facilities-0-6-of-the-u-s-population-43-of-u-s-covid-19-deaths/#2e5589f474cd)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 29, 2020, 12:01:14 PM
A look at the curves by country:

(https://i.imgur.com/AL7BdHJ.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 29, 2020, 12:23:45 PM
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/28/863944333/antibody-tests-point-to-lower-death-rate-for-the-coronavirus-than-first-thought (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/28/863944333/antibody-tests-point-to-lower-death-rate-for-the-coronavirus-than-first-thought)

Estimated mortality rate around 0.5%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 29, 2020, 12:33:39 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 29, 2020, 12:23:45 PM
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/28/863944333/antibody-tests-point-to-lower-death-rate-for-the-coronavirus-than-first-thought (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/28/863944333/antibody-tests-point-to-lower-death-rate-for-the-coronavirus-than-first-thought)

Estimated mortality rate around 0.5%.
Correction... The estimated mortality rate is not 0.5% per that article. 0.5% is the lower bound, with 1% being the upper bound. 

They quote an Indiana study that suggested 0.58%, and somewhat misquote the NY study which showed 0.5% but didn't include any of the "probable" COVID-19 deaths, only the confirmed. Including the "probable category" pushed it to 0.74%. 

Quote
"The current best estimates for the infection fatality risk are between 0.5% and 1%," says Caitlin Rivers (https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-people/rivers/index.html), an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
That's in contrast with death rates of 5% or more (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality) based on calculations that included only people who got sick enough to be diagnosed with tests that detect the presence of virus in a person's body.
And the revised estimates support an early prediction by Dr. Anthony Fauci (https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director), director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a leading member of the White House coronavirus task force. In an editorial (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387) published in late March in The New England Journal of Medicine, Fauci and colleagues wrote that the case fatality rate for COVID-19 "may be considerably less than 1%."
But even a virus with a fatality rate less than 1% presents a formidable threat, Rivers says. "That is many times more deadly than seasonal influenza," she says.

I do find it strange that news sources are quoting the fact that the actual IFR is well below the "5% or more" as if it's a surprise... Seems to me that's been known since we all started talking about this in March. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 29, 2020, 12:40:35 PM
I think "we" are learning some important things about this disease, finally, that can be trusted as being accurate.  The asymptomatic carriers of the illness are one of the worst aspects of it coupled with it's being deadly for the elderly.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on May 29, 2020, 02:18:27 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 29, 2020, 12:40:35 PM
I think "we" are learning some important things about this disease, finally, that can be trusted as being accurate.  The asymptomatic carriers of the illness are one of the worst aspects of it coupled with it's being deadly for the elderly.


According to the Forbes article, it is deadly to the elderly, but particularly if they are in a nursing home. I was shock to see that at least 42% of the death in this country were people who were in nursing home type facilities. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 02:21:37 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on May 29, 2020, 02:18:27 PM
According to the Forbes article, it is deadly to the elderly, but particularly if they are in a nursing home. I was shock to see that at least 42% of the death in this country were people who were in nursing home type facilities.
95% of deaths are from those over the age of 65 or with health conditions.

The death rate for age 65+ is very high.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 29, 2020, 02:25:14 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 29, 2020, 12:33:39 PM
I do find it strange that news sources are quoting the fact that the actual IFR is well below the "5% or more" as if it's a surprise... Seems to me that's been known since we all started talking about this in March.

Yeah, the phrase, "lower than first thought" seems nonsensical to me.  It's always been a complete unknown, due to lack of testing.  
They should say something like, "this unknown throughout this whole ordeal is on the lowerish end."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 29, 2020, 02:26:03 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 02:21:37 PM
95% of deaths are from those over the age of 65 or with health conditions.

The death rate for age 65+ is very high.
So when it's still going, but we're all acting like it's over and August/Sept rolls around, what's your plan if you're a teacher 65 or older?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 29, 2020, 02:43:43 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 29, 2020, 02:25:14 PM
Yeah, the phrase, "lower than first thought" seems nonsensical to me.  It's always been a complete unknown, due to lack of testing. 
They should say something like, "this unknown throughout this whole ordeal is on the lowerish end."
But even at the beginning they were saying that somewhere in the realm of 20% of cases required treatment, 30% were mild, and perhaps around 50% were asymptomatic. 

And due to testing limitations, they were advising people not to even get tested unless they had severe symptoms.

Which means that if you assume maybe at most 25% of cases were being confirmed (the 20% requiring treatment and a small subset of the more mild cases), that'd cut your actual IFR by a factor of 4. Which, when the WHO was saying up front a 3.4% CFR, puts you in the 0.5% to 1% range for IFR. 

I agree it's always been an unknown, but we had at least some bits and pieces of evidence that kinda gave an rough idea of the range.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 02:44:08 PM
Sweden’s economy grew in the first quarter yoy. HEY WHO KNEW NOT FORCING EVERYONE TO SHUT DOWN WOULDN’T LEAD TO DESTROYING AN ECONOMY! 

The idiots who run this country should be lethally injected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 29, 2020, 02:47:20 PM
I don't think the death rate for 65+ is what I would term "very high", except in a relative sense.  And it may not be much different on the aged than influenza.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-05-07/comparing-coronavirus-deaths-by-age-with-flu-driving-fatalities (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-05-07/comparing-coronavirus-deaths-by-age-with-flu-driving-fatalities)

This report is a couple weeks old.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 02:51:24 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 29, 2020, 09:00:31 AM
The best things about Vegas for us are that rental cars are dirt cheap, even convertibles, and there is some beautiful country not too far to drive.
Want cheap cars? Hertz is bankrupt. They are selling off their fleet as we speak. A company that is over 100+ years old and is one of the bluest chip blue chip American brands.

Wonder who is next. This thing is terrible man. Lot of people are getting wiped out and the dominos are just beginning to fall.

Thanks to the stupid useless politicians.

I am afraid that all this craziness and the mishandling of this pandemic will have done is make most people feel like this was nothing but a bunch of bullshit- and the next time there is a disease that is actually deadly serious and actually very lethal- the public will say nah f you guys you cried wolf last time and we’re not buying it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 29, 2020, 02:52:50 PM
Hertz may well come out of bankruptcy "OK".  They can't pay their bills right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 03:10:10 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 02:51:24 PM
Want cheap cars? Hertz is bankrupt. They are selling off their fleet as we speak. A company that is over 100+ years old and is one of the bluest chip blue chip American brands.

Wonder who is next. This thing is terrible man. Lot of people are getting wiped out and the dominos are just beginning to fall.

Thanks to the stupid useless politicians.

I am afraid that all this craziness and the mishandling of this pandemic will have done is make most people feel like this was nothing but a bunch of bullshit- and the next time there is a disease that is actually deadly serious and actually very lethal- the public will say nah f you guys you cried wolf last time and we’re not buying it.
Somebody told me the other day that if we think that this was no big deal and it was a big overreaction, then we did the right thing.  That's exactly what was supposed to happen with successful intervention.

I bet Italy wishes it was no big deal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 29, 2020, 03:19:28 PM
I don't know what "the right thing" would have been, even with hindsight.  I know what some better things might have been.  I know back in early March I knew almost nothing about this disease, it was scary, an strong reaction was likely necessary.  Without that, I couldn't say how many would have died or been very sick.

We do seem to have dodged the worst things that were plausible back then.

Equity markets are recovering some.  The NASDAQ is ahead of where it was Jan. 1.  It will take longer for a lot of family businesses to recover obviously.

I'm spreading around some nice tips, got my hair cut today with the wife's stylist, nice guy, three times the price of Great Clips, but I figured it was safer.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 04:03:10 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 03:10:10 PM
Somebody told me the other day that if we think that this was no big deal and it was a big overreaction, then we did the right thing.  That's exactly what was supposed to happen with successful intervention.

I bet Italy wishes it was no big deal.
It was a huge over-reaction that destroyed the greatest economy the US has ever had (by the numbers) - and the economic destruction that has been wrought because of the ridiculous mass hysteria and over-reaction and over-reach and abuse of government power is going to be far worse than the actual disease- which is deadly for the most part only to the old and immune-compromised. We're talking about something that is maybe 2x more deadly than the flu- something that only mildly affects 99.9% of the young and healthy. Newsflash: old people and the immune compromised die. It's a part of life. No one lives forever. This thing isn't wiping out the young and the mortality rate according to the CDC is .4%. So basically 2-4x worse than the flu. BFD. Get back to me when a disease has a mortality rate of 4%. Then it's a big deal. The kind of lock-downs that were implemented should've only been put in place for something that kills indiscriminately and has a high morality rate- like Ebola or something- which kills everyone equally and has a mortality rate in the 60%'s - not .4%.

What should've happened was the old and immune-compromised been quarantined and the rest of us go about business as normal for the most part. Maybe limit crowds and capacity, ask people to wear masks and wash their hands. Not shut down the entire world for months and wreck peoples lives.

And once again, Italy had the oldest population in the world- and many of them are smokers. The VAST MAJORITY of deaths were the old and immune-compromised there. It's not like this thing was wiping out the young and killing 60% of those who contracted it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 29, 2020, 04:10:17 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 04:03:10 PM
It was a huge over-reaction that destroyed the greatest economy the US has ever had (by the numbers) - and the economic destruction that has been wrought because of the ridiculous mass hysteria and over-reaction and over-reach and abuse of government power is going to be far worse than the actual disease- which is deadly for the most part only to the old and immune-compromised. 
we have over 100,000 dead so Im not sure there is an over reaction

we will come out of this and our economy will probably be stronger then before by the end of 2021

did we make mistakes yes we did nursing homes being the big one but we will get over this
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 04:17:29 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 02:44:08 PM
Sweden’s economy grew in the first quarter yoy. HEY WHO KNEW NOT FORCING EVERYONE TO SHUT DOWN WOULDN’T LEAD TO DESTROYING AN ECONOMY!

The idiots who run this country should be lethally injected.
And many are passing on bullshit as gospel.Open up the economy can't watch this bullshit where anonymous people  getting  so called "facts" from the swampy morass of the internet.Back in february many prudent and astute individuals preached watch what you read.Because a lot of it will be coming from Russia/China/Korea forging facts and having fun while doing it.Sadly we've turned into a real nation of pussies.Ya there is a strong virus but it's not the plague.So go lock the doors put the masks  and the gloves on grab the bleach and and sanatize the remote that you and only have already touched 100x.Check under the beds and in the closets and your phones for the sensationalized latest.When your done sit down and tune in the riots because that's where this is headed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 29, 2020, 04:22:28 PM
I think a large part of our reaction to this thing is due to listening to the scientists and their models

credit should be given that we started reopening up way before the scientists said we should

thank God for the backbone shown by some state Governors
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 04:25:30 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 29, 2020, 04:10:17 PM
we have over 100,000 dead so Im not sure there is an over reaction

we will come out of this and our economy will probably be stronger then before by the end of 2021

did we make mistakes yes we did nursing homes being the big one but we will get over this
100,000 dead in a country of 350,000,000. The flu kills 60,000+ people a year in this country. Do we shut down the entire country? No. And who f***ing knows how accurate those numbers are at all. They are most definitely gamed. 1.35 million people die every single year around the world in car accidents. About 40,000 in the US alone. Do people stop driving cars? No. There is inherent risk in being alive. Life wants to kill you. We are all dying every single day. You have to weigh the risks vs consequences and make informed decisions. You can't let panic and hysteria take over. When that happens- you get moronic things like shutting down a society and wrecking an economy and the livelihoods of tens of millions of people, for something that is basically a little bit worse than a flu. I'd say that's a HUGE over-reaction.



You know what is way more serious than coronavirus that almost nothing ever gets done about in this country? Heart disease. 650,000 Americans die every single year because of heart disease. Do we shut down fast food companies? Do we ban soda? Do we ban smoking cigarettes? Do we use government powers to force people to change the way they eat? Does the gov't crack down on big ag and fast food for dumping toxic bullshit into our food? Nope. How about we work on fixing obesity and the bullshit food supply of this country. That is killing more people in this country than coronavirus could ever dream of.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 29, 2020, 04:30:13 PM
Quote from: Entropy on May 27, 2020, 09:11:55 AM
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/rankings-and-ratings/10-states-with-the-best-worst-health-infrastructure-during-pandemic.html?utm_content=130205955&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-42664672 (https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/rankings-and-ratings/10-states-with-the-best-worst-health-infrastructure-during-pandemic.html?utm_content=130205955&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-42664672)

10 best and worst states with health infrastructure...  not really what I expected.
I didn't expect to see my state at #5.

Quote
Here are the 10 states with the best health infrastructure for COVID-19, according to the analysis:
1. North Dakota
2. West Virginia
3. Mississippi
4. Tennessee
5. Oklahoma
6. Kentucky
7. Alaska
8. Kansas
9. Arkansas
10. Nebraska

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 04:31:26 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 29, 2020, 02:26:03 PM
So when it's still going, but we're all acting like it's over and August/Sept rolls around, what's your plan if you're a teacher 65 or older?

Me?

I don't have a plan.

Social distancing is only so effective in America. 

1.  Large distrust in government.
2.  Large distrust in science and expert opinion
3.  Lack of a social safety net in events such as this
etc etc etc

This is a very serious disease and it shouldn't be taken lightly. 

On the other hand, it has become obvious that America doesn't have the ability to social distance like we need to in order to eliminate this.  Sadly, we need to start thinking about ways to live with it until a vaccine is developed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 29, 2020, 04:34:32 PM
I'd point out Sweden, which is a country that should have tons of demographic advantages over southern Europe and even over the US, is about to pass France to become the 5th-worst nation in the world on the deaths/1M population metric. 

If you look at the curves in every nation, every single one of the countries ahead of them have seen daily deaths dwindle to very low numbers, whereas Sweden has not. So... They're going to be catching up to the next group (Spain/UK/Italy) soon. At the current rate, within about 2 weeks they'll have moved "up" to #2 behind only Belgium.

Note that while we state Sweden hasn't "shut down their economy", they have asked their citizens to voluntarily take most of the same precautions that the rest of Europe took--and as we've stated, Swedes actually trust their government and have mostly complied. They're predicting a 7% contraction to GDP despite not taking mandatory steps, so clearly the behavior of Swedes on the ground has been to avoid most of the economic activity they can easily avoid.

I think we have a lot to learn from Sweden. I think we can open our economy back up to similar levels to what they've got, and hopefully can do so without overwhelming the healthcare system. But make no mistake... This thing is a royal shit sandwich even for the Swedes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 29, 2020, 04:35:57 PM
if you're a teacher and over 65, might be time to retire

teacher's pension can't be that bad

many young teachers looking for jobs
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 04:37:03 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 29, 2020, 04:22:28 PM
I think a large part of our reaction to this thing is due to listening to the scientists and their models

credit should be given that we started reopening up way before the scientists said we should

thank God for the backbone shown by some state Governors

High risk, high reward.  Open early and possibly suffer through a 2nd wave, or stay closed too long and suffer further economic hardship.

Also, the risk varies by state.  Certainly in PA we are in a completely different situation that Idaho.   I think the scientists were spot on here, and we aren't set to open until 6/5.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 04:38:13 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 29, 2020, 04:10:17 PM
we have over 100,000 dead so Im not sure there is an over reaction
They were saying this back a few months ago when the medical community had no way of testing that many.Test the living not the dead if with the limited amount of kits that may have not even been accurate.People with conditions die every day.This whole thing has miraculously passed over NE Ohio,I'd go to Church and praise the lord - but it's closed,ya know Covid
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 04:40:20 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 04:31:26 PM
Me?

I don't have a plan.

Social distancing is only so effective in America. 

1.  Large distrust in government.
2.  Large distrust in science and expert opinion
3.  Lack of a social safety net in events such as this
etc etc etc

This is a very serious disease and it shouldn't be taken lightly. 

On the other hand, it has become obvious that America doesn't have the ability to social distance like we need to in order to eliminate this.  Sadly, we need to start thinking about ways to live with it until a vaccine is developed.
This is not a very serious disease. It's basically a flu on steroids. The CDC itself says the fatality rate is .4%- and of that- the infection fatality rate is .26%. Basically this thing is anywhere 2-4x worse than the flu. It's bad. Sure. But it's not the end of the world. It's not a disease that is going to kill millions or tens of millions in this country every year. Now THOSE kind of numbers would be devastating. We have too many damn people on this planet as it is. People are living way too long now. It is not sustainable. We need a thinning of the herd.

There should be a large distrust in government, the government has lied and f**ked over the people of this country for, oh, like ever.

There isn't a distrust in science or expert opinion. There's a distrust when so called experts are all over the map and talk out of their ass and say one thing one day and then something entirely different just days later. And there should be a huge dose of skepticism of the WHO after the infamous tweet- "NOT TRANSMISSIBLE HUMAN TO HUMAN- DON'T SHUT DOWN CHINESE TRAVEL".

The government could've implemented social safety nets. What did they do? They implemented safety nets for big businesses, and basically told millions of little people to f**k off and fend for themselves. Again, another reason why large amounts of people distrust their government and see right through the bullshit of corrupt, bought and paid for politicians.

There may never even be an effective vaccine for this thing. And even if there is- a vaccine will not make it just go away. It will still be around.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 29, 2020, 04:41:44 PM
STORM LAKE, Iowa -- After nearly a quarter of its workers at a Storm Lake pork processing facility tested positive for the novel coronavirus, Tyson announced Thursday that it will temporarily halt operations.

On Thursday, state health officials also confirmed that 555 workers at the plant tested positive for the virus. The vast majority of the plant's roughly 2,400 workers reside in Buena Vista County, which surpassed 700 total COVID-19 cases that same day. If all of the workers who tested positive lived in Buena Vista County, they would account for roughly 80 percent of the Northwest Iowa county's total cases.

Tyson said in a statement that the shutdown is due in part to a delay in COVID-19 testing results and "team member absences related to quarantine and other factors."

Over the next two days, Tyson will idle harvesting animals and finish processing. Additional deep cleaning and sanitizing of the entire facility will be conducted before operations resume later next week, according to the statement.


"The health and safety of our team members, their families and communities is our top priority, and we continue to take all precautions to protect them," Tyson said in the statement.

Obviously, the italicized is BS
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 04:44:50 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 04:40:20 PM
This is not a very serious disease. It's basically a flu on steroids. The CDC itself says the fatality rate is .4%- and of that- the infection fatality rate is .26%. Basically this thing is anywhere 2-4x worse than the flu. It's bad. Sure. But it's not the end of the world.
Yup,not peeking from behind the curtains anymore
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 29, 2020, 04:45:09 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 04:25:30 PM
The flu kills 60,000+ people a year in this country. Do we shut down the entire country? No. 
No, the flu kills about 35-40K people a year in this country. The worst flu season of the last decade was 61K, but it seems everyone wants to make that the baseline. 

And note that the flu has several advantages to keep people from contracting it:


As a result, with this being basically a greenfield of infection potential where nobody has immunity, and with R0 higher than the flu, it would be expected that infection rates would be SIGNIFICANTLY higher than the flu, with an infection that's significantly more lethal. That's a bad multiplier.


Quote
And who f***ing knows how accurate those numbers are at all. They are most definitely gamed.

Excess deaths analysis suggest the numbers, if anything, are low. 

And this has all happened in 10 weeks, compared to a flu season that is 6+ months long.



Quote
When that happens- you get moronic things like shutting down a society and wrecking an economy and the livelihoods of tens of millions of people, for something that is basically a little bit worse than a flu. I'd say that's a HUGE over-reaction.
If it's only a little worse than the flu, how has it killed 100K people in 10 weeks DESPITE locking everything down? 

Do you believe that if we all went on with our lives, taking basically ONLY flu-like precautions (i.e. none), that we'd still be at only 100K now?

Do you think if we were still holding sporting events, people going to work without precautions, people going to bars/restaurants/clubs, that we'd be okay?

Corollary: If you say that you think the infections would have tapered off naturally without a lockdown, then why are they tapering off in every European nation EXCEPT Sweden?


Quote
You know what is way more serious than coronavirus that almost nothing ever gets done about in this country? Heart disease. 650,000 Americans die every single year because of heart disease. Do we shut down fast food companies? Do we ban soda? Do we ban smoking cigarettes? Do we use government powers to force people to change the way they eat? Does the gov't crack down on big ag and fast food for dumping toxic bullshit into our food? Nope. How about we work on fixing obesity and the bullshit food supply of this country. That is killing more people in this country than coronavirus could ever dream of.

We live in a country where people are getting shot for asking store patrons to wear a mask, and you think we're gonna ban cheeseburgers to save people from heart disease? 

Note the difference, though... You can't catch heart disease from your neighbor if they cough too close to you. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 29, 2020, 04:47:44 PM
or cough into my mouth!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 29, 2020, 04:49:31 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 04:38:13 PM
They were saying this back a few months ago when the medical community had no way of testing that many.Test the living not the dead if with the limited amount of kits that may have not even been accurate.People with conditions die every day.This whole thing has miraculously passed over NE Ohio,I'd go to Church and praise the lord - but it's closed,ya know Covid
Yeah, you do that and then every death which is only "probable" because you didn't test, even though it has all the symptoms of COVID-19, get thrown out and suddenly it's "just the flu". 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 04:54:55 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 04:03:10 PM
It was a huge over-reaction that destroyed the greatest economy the US has ever had (by the numbers) - and the economic destruction that has been wrought because of the ridiculous mass hysteria and over-reaction and over-reach and abuse of government power is going to be far worse than the actual disease- which is deadly for the most part only to the old and immune-compromised. We're talking about something that is maybe 2x more deadly than the flu- something that only mildly affects 99.9% of the young and healthy. Newsflash: old people and the immune compromised die. It's a part of life. No one lives forever. This thing isn't wiping out the young and the mortality rate according to the CDC is .4%. So basically 2-4x worse than the flu. BFD. Get back to me when a disease has a mortality rate of 4%. Then it's a big deal. The kind of lock-downs that were implemented should've only been put in place for something that kills indiscriminately and has a high morality rate- like Ebola or something- which kills everyone equally and has a mortality rate in the 60%'s - not .4%.

What should've happened was the old and immune-compromised been quarantined and the rest of us go about business as normal for the most part. Maybe limit crowds and capacity, ask people to wear masks and wash their hands. Not shut down the entire world for months and wreck peoples lives.

And once again, Italy had the oldest population in the world- and many of them are smokers. The VAST MAJORITY of deaths were the old and immune-compromised there. It's not like this thing was wiping out the young and killing 60% of those who contracted it.
First Bold:  Love to see your source on that.  I can tell you right now that isn't even close to objectively true.

Second Bold:  Love to see your source on that.  I can also tell you for a fact that isn't true.  I've done the math earlier in this thread, as have quite a few other sources, and the death rate is somewhere around 1.5%, give or take 0.5%.  The flu death rate is 0.1%, which means that it is around 15X more deadly.

Third Bold:  Also not true, love to see your source on that.  While some have mild symptoms, around 35% of cases are quite severe.

Fourth Bold:  Obviously this number would not be close to accurate...and yet still 4x deadlier than the flu, which, well, see second bold.  So scientists questioned it.  And: Researchers also lambasted the CDC’s lack of transparency about its data sources. The eight-page document disclosed almost nothing about its numbers, citing only internal data and a preprint — a study that has not been peer-reviewed — led by scientists in Iran.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 04:55:28 PM
You need to fly here and show me then all of the other folks also who have pemanantly lost positions and they can't seem to find this satanic plague.People are repeating bullshit with distressing frequency.I'm using my eyes and ears and asking everyone every day.We are not polluted rubes throwing caution to the wind.Must suck to be the rest of the world.Again tune in the riots because that's what's coming
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 29, 2020, 04:55:44 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 04:40:20 PM
This is not a very serious disease. It's basically a flu on steroids. The CDC itself says the fatality rate is .4%- and of that- the infection fatality rate is .26%. Basically this thing is anywhere 2-4x worse than the flu. It's bad. Sure. But it's not the end of the world. It's not a disease that is going to kill millions or tens of millions in this country every year. Now THOSE kind of numbers would be devastating. We have too many damn people on this planet as it is. People are living way too long now. It is not sustainable. We need a thinning of the herd.

There should be a large distrust in government, the government has lied and f**ked over the people of this country for, oh, like ever.

So you trust the CDC numbers, right after saying you shouldn't trust the government which lies and f***s the little people over? 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 05:04:55 PM
Literally 94% of the people that died from this disease were 55 or older. And of that 94%- 33% were 85 or older, 27% were 75 to 85, and 21% were 65-74. And of the people that died from this- how many had underlying conditions? Oh yeah like close to 100%. So give me a break about how deadly this thing is. It is killing people that are already old and sick. It isn't wiping out young healthy people.

And forced lock-downs only made it worse for people in nursing homes- who are for the most part 80+ years old and sick. This thing circulates inside crammed homes or buildings where no one leaves far more efficiently than it does outside.

The lock downs did nothing to prevent young healthy people from dying. And all they might've done is make old sick people in nursing homes die faster.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 29, 2020, 05:05:31 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 02:44:08 PM
Sweden’s economy grew in the first quarter yoy. HEY WHO KNEW NOT FORCING EVERYONE TO SHUT DOWN WOULDN’T LEAD TO DESTROYING AN ECONOMY!

The idiots who run this country should be lethally injected.
See, I read this, and it makes it harder to take the other posts seriously. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 29, 2020, 05:07:46 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 02:51:24 PM

I am afraid that all this craziness and the mishandling of this pandemic will have done is make most people feel like this was nothing but a bunch of bullshit- and the next time there is a disease that is actually deadly serious and actually very lethal- the public will say nah f you guys you cried wolf last time and we’re not buying it.
I feel like going through this, my belief they wouldn't have taken it seriously even if it was the next black death was just reinforced. 

It feels like so many have be disbelieving throughout, that I don't suddenly think they'll have a good grasp when/if it actually is serious. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 05:10:57 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 04:54:55 PM
First Bold:  Love to see your source on that.  I can tell you right now that isn't even close to objectively true.

Second Bold:  Love to see your source on that.  I can also tell you for a fact that isn't true.  I've done the math earlier in this thread, as have quite a few other sources, and the death rate is somewhere around 1.5%, give or take 0.5%.  The flu death rate is 0.1%, which means that it is around 15X more deadly.

Third Bold:  Also not true, love to see your source on that.  While some have mild symptoms, around 35% of cases are quite severe.

Fourth Bold:  Obviously this number would not be close to accurate...and yet still 4x deadlier than the flu, which, well, see second bold.  So scientists questioned it.  And: Researchers also lambasted the CDC’s lack of transparency about its data sources. The eight-page document disclosed almost nothing about its numbers, citing only internal data and a preprint — a study that has not been peer-reviewed — led by scientists in Iran.
All the numbers on the economy are always rigged, so take them with a grain of salt always. But the economy had the best raw rigged numbers of any rigged numbers ever before this shit storm. That is just a fact.

You are smoking something my friend. The fatality rate is nowhere near 1.5%. It is under 1%. Way under 1%. It's .26 to .5% at worst. At worst.

The VAST majority of young healthy people have very little symptoms and recover without need to go to a hospital. 30% - 50% of people that contract it don't even have any symptoms at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 29, 2020, 05:11:27 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 29, 2020, 04:35:57 PM
if you're a teacher and over 65, might be time to retire

teacher's pension can't be that bad

many young teachers looking for jobs
I'm 65 and I'm a teacher.  I was already planning on retiring in a couple of years.  If this coming school year is nothing but "distant-learning" I might retire sooner.
But if we're back "in school," I'll be back at work.  I like my job and the kids I teach.  Even the ones who think that there has been a Second Coming of the Messiah.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 05:12:04 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 29, 2020, 04:55:44 PM
So you trust the CDC numbers, right after saying you shouldn't trust the government which lies and f***s the little people over?
I think it's safe to say most trust the CDC far more than say governors, state legislators, government lawyers, law enforcement, Presidents, Senators, or House Reps. The CDC hasn't lied, ripped off, ruined peoples lives.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 05:13:10 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 29, 2020, 04:45:09 PM

Note the difference, though... You can't catch heart disease from your neighbor if they cough too close to you.

If you're talking sheer numbers the point still stands.What about the rising suicide ratesThere is plenty of holes in many arguments.I've watched interviews with at least 3 people in the 90s and 1 103 yrs old.That have recovered and were enjoying drinks - it was on the national nightly news.After I've read many credible researchers from science and acedemia can't agree or come to accurate conclusions on any of this.Ya want to fight it take blood thinners and statins - of course you'll have to dial back your alcohol intake as they are not kind to the liver
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 05:13:23 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 29, 2020, 05:05:31 PM
See, I read this, and it makes it harder to take the other posts seriously.
It's called a joke. Ever heard of those?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 05:15:40 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 29, 2020, 05:07:46 PM
I feel like going through this, my belief they wouldn't have taken it seriously even if it was the next black death was just reinforced.

It feels like so many have be disbelieving throughout, that I don't suddenly think they'll have a good grasp when/if it actually is serious.
Hyperbole much? The black death killed 40-60 million people in Europe and had a fatality rate of 60-70%.

Get back to me when this thing kills 60 million people and has a fatality rate of 70%.

Which is what my entire f&&&king point was. You lock down the world for something like that. For something like this? How about no. You quarantine the old and sick and call it a day and move on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 05:16:42 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 29, 2020, 05:11:27 PM
  Even the ones who think that there has been a Second Coming of the Messiah.
Huh,how'd we miss that?Oh ya hiding in the closet from Covid
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 05:20:47 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 29, 2020, 05:07:46 PM
It feels like so many have be disbelieving throughout, that I don't suddenly think they'll have a good grasp when/if it actually is serious.
Even when there is evidence to the contrary.Specially when it increasingly appears the so called "CURE " is worse than the curse.Destroy an economy and people's ability.Sooner or later these tenacles will reach everyone.And Covid will be the least of our worries.Biting off our nose to spite out face seems to be staring us in the face
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 29, 2020, 05:27:35 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 05:16:42 PM
Huh,how'd we miss that?Oh ya hiding in the closet from Covid
I don't know of anyone who is hiding in a closet.
Wearing a mask and maintaining social distance is not the same thing as hiding in a closet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 05:27:59 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 04:55:28 PM
You need to fly here and show me then all of the other folks also who have pemanantly lost positions and they can't seem to find this satanic plague.People are repeating bullshit with distressing frequency.I'm using my eyes and ears and asking everyone every day.We are not polluted rubes throwing caution to the wind.Must suck to be the rest of the world.Again tune in the riots because that's what's coming
I know 5 people confirmed to have it. Two of our health firefighters died from it. I live in the NE. Maybe you should fly to NYC or Italy and ask them how bad it can be. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 29, 2020, 05:29:41 PM
shut down Italy and NYC

do not shut down North Dakota and Montana
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 05:29:56 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 29, 2020, 05:11:27 PM
I'm 65 and I'm a teacher.  I was already planning on retiring in a couple of years.  If this coming school year is nothing but "distant-learning" I might retire sooner.
But if we're back "in school," I'll be back at work.  I like my job and the kids I teach.  Even the ones who think that there has been a Second Coming of the Messiah.
You’re one of the good ones CW. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 29, 2020, 05:31:28 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 29, 2020, 05:11:27 PM
I'm 65 and I'm a teacher.  I was already planning on retiring in a couple of years.  If this coming school year is nothing but "distant-learning" I might retire sooner.
But if we're back "in school," I'll be back at work.  I like my job and the kids I teach.  Even the ones who think that there has been a Second Coming of the Messiah.
yup, wish there were more like you
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 29, 2020, 05:33:22 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 05:13:23 PM
It's called a joke. Ever heard of those?
Understood. When you write things that read as over the top I will take them as jokes from now on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 29, 2020, 05:34:02 PM
I think that the cases of NYC and Italy are illustrations of how bad it could get--or could have gotten--when few if any restrictions were imposed early on.

If the whole country had just "let 'er rip," we'd likely be looking at the same experience NYC went through taking place in many of our major cities.

Maybe not the major cities in Texas--because, Texas--but big cities on both coasts and in the Midwest and Southeast.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 05:35:32 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 29, 2020, 05:33:22 PM
Understood. When you write things that read as over the top I will take them as jokes from now on.
Ok. For the record I am completely against violence or war and never wish someone be killed. It's just a dark joke that is borne out of complete disgust of most politicians. I wish for once in my lifetime there would be a good one that actually was for the people and got shit done for the people. Just once.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 29, 2020, 05:38:46 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 05:35:32 PM
Ok. For the record I am completely against violence or war and never wish someone be killed. It's just a dark joke that is borne out of complete disgust of most politicians. I wish for once in my lifetime there would be a good one that actually was for the people and got shit done for the people. Just once.
When we keep electing people we know are liars and scoundrels because they promise to take from "them" and give to "us," we get what we deserve.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 05:38:52 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 29, 2020, 05:29:41 PM
shut down Italy and NYC

do not shut down North Dakota and Montana
I don't think they are...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 05:38:56 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 05:27:59 PM
I know 5 people confirmed to have it. Two of our health firefighters died from it. I live in the NE. Maybe you should fly to NYC or Italy and ask them how bad it can be.
And I know 4 people who had it, and 3 got better on their own at home. Those 3 were all 55 or under (one was 55, the other two were in their 30's) and relatively healthy- not obese, not smokers, no diabetes, no heart disease. For the most part healthy.

And the 1 that I know that had to go to the hospital to get put on an oxygen machine- he was in his early 60's and has diabetes and is at least 50 pounds over-weight. He spent 2 nights in a hospital and then he was sent home with an oxygen mask and was in bed for another 4-5 days and then made a full recovery.

It can be bad. Sure. But for 99.5 to 99.74% of people that contract it- it doesn't result in death.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 29, 2020, 05:44:30 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 05:15:40 PM
Hyperbole much? The black death killed 40-60 million people in Europe and had a fatality rate of 60-70%.

Get back to me when this thing kills 60 million people and has a fatality rate of 70%.

Which is what my entire f&&&king point was. You lock down the world for something like that. For something like this? How about no. You quarantine the old and sick and call it a day and move on.
Correct. That is hyperbole. There will likely never be something quite like the Black Death again due to advances in hygiene and medical treatment.

Considering how many people have been highly skeptical and quick to jump on anything fringe-y that supports it, I’m unconvinced there’s some magic tipping point that makes believers. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 05:47:28 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 29, 2020, 05:34:02 PM
I think that the cases of NYC and Italy are illustrations of how bad it could get--or could have gotten--when few if any restrictions were imposed early on.

If the whole country had just "let 'er rip," we'd likely be looking at the same experience NYC went through taking place in many of our major cities.

Maybe not the major cities in Texas--because, Texas--but big cities on both coasts and in the Midwest and Southeast.
Not sure this is accurate. NYC and Italy both have extenuating circumstances that made it worse.

Italy has like the oldest population in the entire world. And also one of the highest % of cigarette smokers in the world. Have you ever met an Italian from Europe? They smoke like a freaking chimney. Old + Smoker = more at risk. They are also more social and around the younger folk in both private at home and public- unlike other older populations like the Japanese.

NYC is the most densely populated area in the entire US. Look at LA- LA was hit nowhere near as hard and it has 13 million people in it's metro area- but that population is so spread out. NYC population is densely populated and packed into a tight area of land. Manhattan alone is a tiny little island that has close to 2 million residents and another 2+ million a day visiting for work/pleasure. At any given time you've got 4 million+ people packed into a piece of land just 2 miles wide and 13 miles long.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 05:48:32 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 29, 2020, 05:38:46 PM
When we keep electing people we know are liars and scoundrels because they promise to take from "them" and give to "us," we get what we deserve.
True. People keep electing these dummies. I don't get it. I guess these politicians are just very good at marketing and lying. They hire great PR firms and spend shit loads of money on ads.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 05:49:12 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 29, 2020, 05:27:35 PM
I don't know of anyone who is hiding in a closet.
Wearing a mask and maintaining social distance is not the same thing as hiding in a closet.
In jest - just asking about the second coming part
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 05:54:15 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 29, 2020, 05:44:30 PM
Correct. That is hyperbole. There will likely never be something quite like the Black Death again due to advances in hygiene and medical treatment.

Considering how many people have been highly skeptical and quick to jump on anything fringe-y that supports it, I’m unconvinced there’s some magic tipping point that makes believers. 
What about the Spanish Flue there are plenty of archived pictures with people wearing masks back then.And they were not nearly as transient and moving viruses around back then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 29, 2020, 05:56:22 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 05:48:32 PM
True. Dummies keep electing these dummies. I totally get it. I guess these politicians are just very good at marketing and lying. They hire great PR firms and spend shit loads of money on ads, and dummies eat it all up.
There, fixed that for you ;-) 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 05:59:37 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 29, 2020, 05:44:30 PM
Correct. That is hyperbole. There will likely never be something quite like the Black Death again due to advances in hygiene and medical treatment.

Considering how many people have been highly skeptical and quick to jump on anything fringe-y that supports it, I’m unconvinced there’s some magic tipping point that makes believers.
People don't like being told what to do. People don't like being lied to. People don't like being told something one day, and then something completely different days later. People like being free. I think those are pretty simple truths.

The City of LA was paying people to snitch on other people that were leaving their homes. They had that entire snitches don't get stitches they get rewards campaign or whatever the hell that disaster was. The mayor of LA came across as a simpleton that was just drunk on power. Even in interviews he just came across like a complete douche.

People shouldn't be made to stay home. Businesses shouldn't be forced to close. If you want to stay home, fine. Go ahead. If you want to close your business, go ahead. Treat people like adults, inform them of the risks, let them make their own decisions. That makes people trust their so called betters and leaders more if anything. No one wants to live in a nanny state. The idea that the government can protect you from everything in life and provide for you is laughable. The government should provide support and serve the people, and listen to the will of the people. That's it. The government should fear it's people, the people shouldn't fear the government.

Quarantine the old and sick, allow people to close their businesses or stay home if they want- but don't force them- and provide them some kind of financial support to do so if that's what they choose to do. Make people wear masks in large public gatherings- limit capacities in public events and at restaurants/stores/etc. Encourage the public to social distance and wear masks and exercise proper hygiene- and move on. It's not that hard. Sweden never forced locked downs. They gave their citizens guidelines to follow and for the most part the vast majority of their citizens did.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 29, 2020, 06:00:14 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 05:54:15 PM
What about the Spanish Flue there are plenty of archived pictures with people wearing masks back then.And they were not nearly as transient and moving viruses around back then.
I think folks back then believed a mask would protest the wearer, not others.  We had no clue what a virus was back in 1918.

And they were very transient actually because of the war thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 06:01:03 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 29, 2020, 05:56:22 PM
There, fixed that for you ;-)
LOL
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 29, 2020, 06:03:01 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 05:59:37 PM
People don't like being told what to do. People don't like being lied to. People don't like being told something one day, and then something completely different days later. People like being free. I think those are pretty simple truths.

Sweden never forced locked downs. They gave their citizens guidelines to follow and for the most part the vast majority of their citizens did.
If you think Americans would have made good choices in the absence of lockdowns... I don't know that we'll ever see eye to eye. 

This is America. 98% of the population would think "well, everyone else is following the guidelines and staying home, so I guess it's okay if *I* go out", and then we'd all be f****d because 98% of the population would make zero changes to their behavior. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 06:05:20 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 05:54:15 PM
What about the Spanish Flue there are plenty of archived pictures with people wearing masks back then.And they were not nearly as transient and moving viruses around back then.
Don't even have to go that far back. Go back to the Hong Kong flu in 1968-1969 which killed over 100,000+ people in just under a year. Extrapolate the numbers and adjust to the US population today and that number would be 250,000+ people dead in just under a year.

The US never closed down shit back then. We were a way tougher people back in the day. Everyone is a f***king pansy today. Pussification of America will be the downfall of America.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 29, 2020, 06:09:03 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 05:20:47 PM
Even when there is evidence to the contrary.Specially when it increasingly appears the so called "CURE " is worse than the curse.Destroy an economy and people's ability.Sooner or later these tenacles will reach everyone.And Covid will be the least of our worries.Biting off our nose to spite out face seems to be staring us in the face
I think I first heard the thing about the cure being worse than the disease at some point in late March. I heard lots of these varying degrees of skepticism.

it seems realistic that something considerably more serious will also have similar toeholds for skepticism, and if it doesn’t, there will be someone aggressively implying there are for the sake of attention and ratings.

In the end, I’ve been worn down to the point of nihilism. Everyone go do what they want. If those people are fine, wonderful, and if they’re not, they got what they wanted and a bunch of people who couldn’t avoid exposure even if they wanted to become collateral damage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 06:13:59 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 29, 2020, 06:00:14 PM
I think folks back then believed a mask would protest the wearer, not others.  We had no clue what a virus was back in 1918.

And they were very transient actually because of the war thing.
Not flying in and out of countries regularly on a daily basis encased in planes.Don't believe me ask the Egg Lobby
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 29, 2020, 06:23:01 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 05:54:15 PM
What about the Spanish Flue there are plenty of archived pictures with people wearing masks back then.And they were not nearly as transient and moving viruses around back then.
I’m not sure the exact timing of that flu, but I do know it got its name from the fact the government made a point of censoring it out of the press.

I would also assume people back then were considerably more trusting of authority than we are now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 29, 2020, 06:23:21 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 29, 2020, 06:09:03 PM

In the end, I’ve been worn down to the point of nihilism. 
I was there for a while. But I got bored of nihilism, and have become actively hostile to humanity. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 29, 2020, 06:23:36 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 05:49:12 PM
In jest - just asking about the second coming part
Ah, got ya!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 29, 2020, 06:26:07 PM
I view nihilism as a big nothing, it's really too much for me personally.  I like eggs daily.  And bacon.

And grits.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 29, 2020, 06:27:04 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 05:59:37 PM
People don't like being told what to do.
People don't like being lied to.
1 - adults like being treated like adults, even when they don't act like adults
2 - people don't like being lied to because they always fall for it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 29, 2020, 06:29:19 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 29, 2020, 06:03:01 PM
If you think Americans would have made good choices in the absence of lockdowns... I don't know that we'll ever see eye to eye.

This is America. 98% of the population would think "well, everyone else is following the guidelines and staying home, so I guess it's okay if *I* go out", and then we'd all be f****d because 98% of the population would make zero changes to their behavior.
Yes, this.  
Every individual thinks he or she is the exception.  Whether it's being the last one, running that red light or flubbing that paperwork in our favor.....everyone thinks they deserve to be the last one in the lifeboat.

It's infuriating.  And common.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 29, 2020, 06:29:32 PM
With freedom comes responsibility.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 29, 2020, 06:29:53 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 29, 2020, 06:26:07 PM
I view nihilism as a big nothing, it's really too much for me personally.  I like eggs daily.  And bacon.

And grits.
What would one grit be?
There must be a large grit lobby in the South convincing people to eat those things.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 29, 2020, 06:30:12 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 29, 2020, 06:09:03 PM
In the end, I’ve been worn down to the point of nihilism. Everyone go do what they want. If those people are fine, wonderful, and if they’re not, they got what they wanted and a bunch of people who couldn’t avoid exposure even if they wanted to become collateral damage.
Yeah, this is called anarchy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 29, 2020, 06:32:10 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 29, 2020, 06:29:19 PM
Yes, this. 
Every individual thinks he or she is the exception.  Whether it's being the last one, running that red light or flubbing that paperwork in our favor.....everyone thinks they deserve to be the last one in the lifeboat.

It's infuriating.  And common.
It's humanity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 06:35:15 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 29, 2020, 06:09:03 PM
In the end, I’ve been worn down to the point of nihilism. Everyone go do what they want. If those people are fine, wonderful, and if they’re not, they got what they wanted and a bunch of people who couldn’t avoid exposure even if they wanted to become collateral damage.
I get what you're saying but when there is literally very little evidence HERE to warrant the damage done by something that looks more and more out of proportion to the reality of the situation then people who have kids/wives/families and shuttered businesses are more than willing to take that chance
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 06:38:06 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 06:05:20 PM
Don't even have to go that far back. Go back to the Hong Kong flu in 1968-1969 which killed over 100,000+ people in just under a year. Extrapolate the numbers and adjust to the US population today and that number would be 250,000+ people dead in just under a year.

The US never closed down shit back then. We were a way tougher people back in the day. Everyone is a f***king pansy today. Pussification of America will be the downfall of America.
so the worst flu in more than 50 years killed 100,000, eh?

Tell me how many dead in America these last 8 weeks?  How many more if there was no lockdown?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 06:44:43 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 05:48:32 PM
True. People keep electing these dummies. I don't get it. I guess these politicians are just very good at marketing and lying. They hire great PR firms and spend shit loads of money on ads.
They are actually terrible at lying.  It doesn't matter, because people root for politics like they root for their sports team.  I will never understand politician worship.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 06:45:37 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 29, 2020, 06:23:01 PM
I would also assume people back then were considerably more trusting of authority than we are now.
In the USA back in the day deservedly so - IMO
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 06:48:30 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 06:44:43 PM
They are actually terrible at lying.  It doesn't matter, because people root for politics like they root for their sports team.  I will never understand politician worship.
Yeah, this is pretty much true and sad. I know a lot of people who root for Republicans no matter what and root for Democrats no matter what. Makes zero sense to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 06:51:41 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 06:38:06 PM
so the worst flu in more than 50 years killed 100,000, eh?

Tell me how many dead in America these last 8 weeks?  How many more if there was no lockdown?

Accordingy to you and whoever you quote.In february they were attributing damn near evrything to covid and no way to verify that.The few testing kits they had weren't being dispensed to morgues when there was sick people to test.As I think NOB said he knew of a case someone had stage 4 cancer and some othe condition to boot and covid may have finished them off but was hardly the culprit
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 06:52:06 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 05:38:56 PM
And I know 4 people who had it, and 3 got better on their own at home. Those 3 were all 55 or under (one was 55, the other two were in their 30's) and relatively healthy- not obese, not smokers, no diabetes, no heart disease. For the most part healthy.

And the 1 that I know that had to go to the hospital to get put on an oxygen machine- he was in his early 60's and has diabetes and is at least 50 pounds over-weight. He spent 2 nights in a hospital and then he was sent home with an oxygen mask and was in bed for another 4-5 days and then made a full recovery.

It can be bad. Sure. But for 99.5 to 99.74% of people that contract it- it doesn't result in death.

Untrue.  Look at the data. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

Infection Fatality Rate (23k / 1.7M = 1.4% IFR)
Actual Cases with an outcome as of May 1 = estimated actual recovered (1,671,351) + estimated actual deaths (23,430) = 1,694,781.
Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) = Deaths / Cases = 23,430 / 1,694,781 = 1.4% (1.4% of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 have a fatal outcome, while 98.6% recover).


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 06:53:27 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 06:51:41 PM
Accordingy to you and whoever you quote.In february they were attributing damn near evrything to covid and no way to verify that.The few testing kits they had weren't being dispensed to morgues when there was sick people to test.As I think NOB said he knew of a case someone had stage 4 cancer and some othe condition to boot and covid may have finished them off but was hardly the culprit
Same guidelines apply to COVID deaths as apply to Flu deaths.  Are we comparing or not?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 06:55:29 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 06:45:37 PM
In the USA back in the day deservedly so - IMO
I don't know about that.

The FBI basically ignored the mafia under J Edgar. Some even say they had a deal with the FBI to look the other way. And the abuse of the law and spying power under J Edgar were mind blowing.

And what about the Kennedy assassination. Why was so much sealed and documents not released until 50+ years after his death.

Gulf of Tonkin incident which was faked to push the US into Vietnam War. Pentagon Papers revealing this and all other kinds of atrocities.

Yeah, I think there were tons of reasons not to trust the government even back then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 07:02:13 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 06:48:30 PM
Yeah, this is pretty much true and sad. I know a lot of people who root for Republicans no matter what and root for Democrats no matter what. Makes zero sense to me.

I also think we have very few politicians left that have to answer to both sides.  I blame gerrymandering for much of it.  If you've gerrymandered well enough, than you only care about your party if you want to be re-elected.  That usually means you shift to the extremes, because extremists tend to win primaries.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 07:03:05 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 06:53:27 PM
Same guidelines apply to COVID deaths as apply to Flu deaths.  Are we comparing or not?
There were hardly any concrete covid guidelines in february and one physician i know said people were demanding panic appointments for ridiculous things.Too many sources have said covid is getting the attention when it's not the culprit or killer even if it's present.Who the hell is sticking to exact guidelines in your perfect universe.From doctor to doctor,hospital to hospital,state to state,you really think there is remotely any consistency across those sectors?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 07:04:37 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 06:55:29 PM
I don't know about that.

The FBI basically ignored the mafia under J Edgar. Some even say they had a deal with the FBI to look the other way. And the abuse of the law and spying power under J Edgar were mind blowing.

And what about the Kennedy assassination. Why was so much sealed and documents not released until 50+ years after his death.

Gulf of Tonkin incident which was faked to push the US into Vietnam War. Pentagon Papers revealing this and all other kinds of atrocities.

Yeah, I think there were tons of reasons not to trust the government even back then.
I agree.

This is flying under the radar, but it is pretty scary...

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/jgxxvk/senate-votes-to-allow-fbi-to-look-at-your-web-browsing-history-without-a-warrant

I can't imagine that EVER being abused, eh?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 07:11:36 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 07:04:37 PM
I agree.

This is flying under the radar, but it is pretty scary...

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/jgxxvk/senate-votes-to-allow-fbi-to-look-at-your-web-browsing-history-without-a-warrant

I can't imagine that EVER being abused, eh?
Yeah, I wrote about this one of my drone on long rage posts in this thread a few pages back.

It is absolutely infuriating. And it failed by one vote. Guess who wasn't there to vote? Bernie Sanders. The revolutionary! Dude is the lamest revolutionary I've ever seen. I haven't seen anyone sell out faster in the history of politics than Bernie Sanders has. I've lost so much respect for him. He did nothing to push back on any of the disastrous corona-virus relief bills. Really kind hurt me, because I felt duped. I thought he was different. Turns out he's not. He had so many opportunities to take the gloves off and go after Biden on legit issues that Biden is truly awful on- and he never once did. "Joe Biden is my friend! Joe can beat Trump". Is that what you say when you really want to win an election? I mean, come on man. You have to give people a reason to vote for you, you have to tell people this other mofo can't beat Trump but I can. His record on x,y,z is horrendous.

At the very least I expected Bernie to vote on that amendment and to limit the spying powers of the security state. Absolutely gut-wrenching he was a no-show and didn't vote no.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 07:14:14 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 07:03:05 PM
There were hardly any concrete covid guidelines in february and one physician i know said people were demanding panic appointments for ridiculous things.Too many sources have said covid is getting the attention when it's not the culprit or killer even if it's present.Who the hell is sticking to exact guidelines in your perfect universe
As a data guy-

Data points are messy, but the more we collect, the more accurate we become.

Outliers exist in every direction, and tend to even themselves out.

With that said:  Overwhelming evidence suggests that the numbers are worse than they appear.  

Besides, who would fudge the numbers?  Why would they do this?  How many people would be involved for this to happen globally?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 07:21:17 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 07:11:36 PM
Yeah, I wrote about this one of my drone on long rage posts in this thread a few pages back.

It is absolutely infuriating. And it failed by one vote. Guess who wasn't there to vote? Bernie Sanders. The revolutionary! Dude is the lamest revolutionary I've ever seen. I haven't seen anyone sell out faster in the history of politics than Bernie Sanders has. I've lost so much respect for him. He did nothing to push back on any of the disastrous corona-virus relief bills. Really kind hurt me, because I felt duped. I thought he was different. Turns out he's not. He had so many opportunities to take the gloves off and go after Biden on legit issues that Biden is truly awful on- and he never once did. "Joe Biden is my friend! Joe can beat Trump". Is that what you say when you really want to win an election? I mean, come on man. You have to give people a reason to vote for you, you have to tell people this other mofo can't beat Trump but I can. His record on x,y,z is horrendous.

At the very least I expected Bernie to vote on that amendment and to limit the spying powers of the security state. Absolutely gut-wrenching he was a no-show and didn't vote no.
I find myself much more on edge these days.  Being stuck at home is really wearing on me.  Normally I'd be super busy and traveling like crazy. 

It's a constant battle to keep sane.  

Much like watching Penn State-Iowa, actually...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 07:34:06 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 07:14:14 PM
As a data guy-

Data points are messy, but the more we collect, the more accurate we become.

Outliers exist in every direction, and tend to even themselves out.

With that said:  Overwhelming evidence suggests that the numbers are worse than they appear. 

Besides, who would fudge the numbers?  Why would they do this?  How many people would be involved for this to happen globally?
I don't think anyone with a conscientious would fudge the numbers.There are inaqccuracies or misunderstandings and I'm a reality guy of the here and now and collect info from my frame reference.And the click bait is really a thing many foreign governments Iran/China/Russia will disguise/mislead/confuse media outlets anyway they can
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 07:42:23 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 07:04:37 PM
I agree.

This is flying under the radar, but it is pretty scary...

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/jgxxvk/senate-votes-to-allow-fbi-to-look-at-your-web-browsing-history-without-a-warrant

I can't imagine that EVER being abused, eh?
10 years ago that would piss me off to no end and would seek a referendum anyway possible.Then it occured to me that's it's already been going on for much longer than that unfortunately.But they can't find us as we are in Area 51,so we have that going for us
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 29, 2020, 07:44:55 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 29, 2020, 06:35:49 PM
It started a hundred years before Clinton.
maybe 150
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 29, 2020, 07:48:09 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 06:48:30 PM
Yeah, this is pretty much true and sad. I know a lot of people who root for Republicans no matter what and root for Democrats no matter what. Makes zero sense to me.
those folks are idiots and sheep
these are the folks politicians love
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on May 29, 2020, 07:53:03 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 07:11:36 PM
Yeah, I wrote about this one of my drone on long rage posts in this thread a few pages back.

It is absolutely infuriating. And it failed by one vote. Guess who wasn't there to vote? Bernie Sanders. The revolutionary! Dude is the lamest revolutionary I've ever seen. I haven't seen anyone sell out faster in the history of politics than Bernie Sanders has. I've lost so much respect for him. He did nothing to push back on any of the disastrous corona-virus relief bills. Really kind hurt me, because I felt duped. I thought he was different. Turns out he's not. He had so many opportunities to take the gloves off and go after Biden on legit issues that Biden is truly awful on- and he never once did. "Joe Biden is my friend! Joe can beat Trump". Is that what you say when you really want to win an election? I mean, come on man. You have to give people a reason to vote for you, you have to tell people this other mofo can't beat Trump but I can. His record on x,y,z is horrendous.

At the very least I expected Bernie to vote on that amendment and to limit the spying powers of the security state. Absolutely gut-wrenching he was a no-show and didn't vote no.
Bernie's as big a career politician as there is.  His only full-time jobs ever have been holding elected office.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 29, 2020, 07:56:05 PM
true
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 08:00:25 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 07:34:06 PM
I don't think anyone with a conscientious would fudge the numbers.There are inaqccuracies or misunderstandings and I'm a reality guy of the here and now and collect info from my frame reference.And the click bait is really a thing many foreign governments Iran/China/Russia will disguise/mislead/confuse media outlets anyway they can
I don't trust their data, either.

Got lots of other data to pick from though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 29, 2020, 08:03:44 PM
I don't know who's data to trust

I'd need to know the agenda of the data sourse
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 29, 2020, 08:11:15 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 08:00:25 PM
I don't trust their data, either.

Got lots of other data to pick from though.
I mean as hackers they're actually quite good at it - in a bad way
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 29, 2020, 09:03:03 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 05:59:37 PM
People don't like being told what to do. People don't like being lied to. People don't like being told something one day, and then something completely different days later. People like being free. I think those are pretty simple truths.


"People don't like being told what to do." - Correct, and they likely wouldn't be even if there was something more serious 

"People don't like being lied to." - This seems debatable. People often seem to like being lied to. Depends who is lying of course.

"People don't like being told something one day, and then something completely different days later." - They don't. But the world changes often. And if they don't like being told different things sometimes, they definitely like being lied to. 

"People like being free." - To a degree yes. They really like feeling like they're free, which is different from feeling free at points. 

Most of them seem like kinda complex truths, actually. And all of them point me to the fact that if there were something more deadly, some folks would still hold out skepticism for a good long while. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 09:52:20 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on May 29, 2020, 07:53:03 PM
Bernie's as big a career politician as there is.  His only full-time jobs ever have been holding elected office.
True. But he was always very publicly against the Democratic establishment. He was always voting NO on the things that matter, or trying to push legislation that was good but never had the support behind it from other politicians to get pushed through, and he was always bringing very important issues to light.

He was basically seen as a radical that was principled and authentic, but had very little power to do anything to make major change. The moment he actually built a movement and got some power he wind up folding like a cheap suite. He had zero fight in him to go on the offensive with Hillary, the DNC, or Biden. Folded like a cheap suite and fell right in line for a seat in their club.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 29, 2020, 10:38:52 PM
Thank God Faucci aint the President

if he was we'd be closed for the next 3 years

Have you noticed that weather vane Faucci tends to change his view to agree with whats

working at the time

dont wear a mask oh wait a minute you need to wear a mask

there will more then likely be a 2nd wave oh wait a minute there every chance there wont be a 2nd wave

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 11:08:48 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 29, 2020, 10:38:52 PM
Thank God Faucci aint the President

if he was we'd be closed for the next 3 years

Have you noticed that weather vane Faucci tends to change his view to agree with whats

working at the time

dont wear a mask oh wait a minute you need to wear a mask

there will more then likely be a 2nd wave oh wait a minute there every chance there wont be a 2nd wave


To be fair, this is a rapidly changing situation with a new virus which we are still learning about. 

Being able to change your mind with new information is not a weakness. It’s a badge of honor. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 29, 2020, 11:11:51 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 11:08:48 PM
To be fair, this is a rapidly changing situation with a new virus which we are still learning about.

Being able to change your mind with new information is not a weakness. It’s a badge of honor.
For some, yes
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 29, 2020, 11:47:35 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 11:08:48 PM
To be fair, this is a rapidly changing situation with a new virus which we are still learning about.

Being able to change your mind with new information is not a weakness. It’s a badge of honor.
well then Faucci is very highly decorated
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 30, 2020, 12:09:26 AM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 11:08:48 PM
To be fair, this is a rapidly changing situation with a new virus which we are still learning about.

Being able to change your mind with new information is not a weakness. It’s a badge of honor.
It's not a badge of honor, it's the only prudent thing to do.
People who bitch about informed people changing their minds are lazy assholes.  Dull.  Limited.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 30, 2020, 12:16:04 AM
have to put his here only because have to laugh in order not to cry in these crazy ass times...

https://twitter.com/NFL_Memes/status/1266136132628209664?s=20
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on May 30, 2020, 01:08:15 AM
Again, tonight, watching WCCO-TV video. Arsonists are burning down a barbershop, and they are interviewing the owner of the barbershop, and he says he is "disappointed." A master of understatement has spoken. The story changed away from George Floyd. 

I am an attorney in small town Iowa. We have had rogue cops in small town Iowa, too. They are actually in the minority. They are always here, and in small town Iowa there are not  many blacks to suppress. But the rogues here will suppress whom they can, while risking their careers by rogue activity. 

One day one of them will do something that actually injures someone permanently. I recall several years ago where one of the rogues who reveled in not being a peace officer but escalating every situation he could, fractured someone's cervical spine during an arrest. Fortunately it was not serious enough to sever the spinal cord. It was serious enough to draw a personal injury claim and resultant termination of his employment. 

All the local attorneys knew he was rogue, but without a serious injury we couldn't do a thing about him because the immunities given to law enforcement officers are such that as an attorney you would go broke pursuing someone on a something less that an injury that is permanently disabling. The likelihood of achieving justice is so limited on a lesser personal injury claim against a rogue officer because the rules make the likelihood of success almost nonexistent, despite extremely rogue conduct.

It is hard to say whether the George Floyd matter is racial, a personal vendetta, or both (the officer and G. Floyd were co-workers at one time). Whatever it is . . . it was outrageous.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 30, 2020, 01:52:18 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on May 30, 2020, 01:08:15 AM
It is hard to say whether the George Floyd matter is racial, a personal vendetta, or both (the officer and G. Floyd were co-workers at one time). Whatever it is . . . it was outrageous.
I got the living shit beat out of me by the police once before, and I'm white as snow. And for no reason to be quite honest with you. Punched me in the face, back, head, tased me, beat me with the sticks, and after they had me on the ground cuffed and motionless they still proceeded to beat the living shit out of me with their sticks and fists.

There's a police brutality problem in this country, for sure. That is without question. It's massive and it's systemic. It's not just a few bad apples. It's the entire police culture that is rotten to the core. The police are over-militarized, trained poorly, and vetted poorly. Just about any dumb asshole can become a police officer if they really want to. It's not that hard. Believe me, I know more than a couple of them. And the culture inside the police department where they lie and cover for each other in order protect the shield and protect their "brothers" breeds bad police officers that abuse their powers. Not everyone that becomes a police officer is cut out to actually be a police officer. They are suppose to serve and protect the public. Unfortunately in far too many cases they protect themselves first and forget the serve the public part. Shoot first, ask questions later. That's not what the job is meant to be. It's a public service. A noble one at that. And it's a dangerous, unforgiving, thankless job. But it's a job that someone chooses. Nobody makes you become a police officer. There are risks associated with the job, and if you can't properly deal with those risks then you shouldn't be a police officer. It's way too militarized, way too right wing, and way too protected and held unaccountable.

And there are way too many former military service members that come home suffering from PTSD and just go right into the police force and take out their issues out on the public instead of not working and being in hardcore therapy for years like most of them need to be.

My view is there is a huge police problem in this country- and it disproportionately affects black people. There are more white people total beaten and killed by police officers every single year in this country, but there are a lot more white people in this country. In terms of % of population, blacks are disproportionately abused by police. But they use excessive force and abuse their powers and beat the snot out of white people and shoot and kill white people too. I experienced it first hand.

The US is an over-militarized, over-policed, penal colony. No other country in the entire freaking world has as many people in prisons and jails or as high of an incarceration rate. And blacks are disproportionately affected by a completely ass backwards screwed up system.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 30, 2020, 02:12:58 AM
just gonna leave this here...

A gang of monkeys in India broke into a lab, attacked a lab assistant and stole covid-19 samples.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-monkeys-escape-with-covid-19-samples-after-attacking-lab-assistant-11996752?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 30, 2020, 08:39:18 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 30, 2020, 02:12:58 AM
just gonna leave this here...

A gang of monkeys in India broke into a lab, attacked a lab assistant and stole covid-19 samples.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-monkeys-escape-with-covid-19-samples-after-attacking-lab-assistant-11996752?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter
the zoo lives
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2020, 08:52:30 AM
I interact fairly often with the Atlanta PD, they have officers around construction sites.  They often are sitting in a chair reading something, it looks like quiet duty, but I suppose they are needed to manage traffic at times.  We speak to them, they speak back, often we ask if we can walk this way and they either say "Not now, maybe go this way" or they escort us through a construction area, recently folks were overhead dealing with utility lines (they have to be put underground at any new site).

There have been police in the park of late due to the COVID thing, on bikes or on horses or in golf carts or on foot, they have always been polite and friendly.  At times I ask if things are going OK and they will respond.  Of course, I'm white, often with the wife, and don't look remotely dangerous, but I have had zero negative interactions, thankfully.  I have not seen any either.

Maybe they behave differently in other situations.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2020, 10:05:24 AM
In my opinion, Fauci and Birx have provided useful information and perspective all along the way, some of which was clearly distorted or misinterpreted by others.

We have gone to knowing nearly nothing about COVID to having a few things starting to be nailed down in two months or so.  The recent good news is that we do appear to develop antibodies to the virus and that can be artificially induced, no idea how long it lasts.

I think the fear about the virus lingering on surfaces for days or weeks was misplaced by understandable.  Most transmission appears to be direct contact or with a sneeze/cough.  A mask can help with the latter items if the infected person is wearing one, or maintains distance.

These various protests/riots may provide a new source for spread.

We don't have this licked, but it is not as bad as it could have been and states that have reopened have not been overwhelmed by any means.  New cases in GA are steady.

(https://i.imgur.com/DViLVTG.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2020, 10:14:43 AM
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865498498/cdc-director-claims-new-analysis-exonerates-agency-on-testing-delay?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=nprblogscoronavirusliveupdates (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865498498/cdc-director-claims-new-analysis-exonerates-agency-on-testing-delay?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=nprblogscoronavirusliveupdates)


CDC head claims earlier testing would not have helped, which perhaps is not a shock (that they would claim it).  They still botched the test.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 30, 2020, 10:28:46 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 30, 2020, 01:52:18 AM
I got the living shit beat out of me by the police once before, and I'm white as snow. And for no reason to be quite honest with you. Punched me in the face, back, head, tased me, beat me with the sticks, and after they had me on the ground cuffed and motionless they still proceeded to beat the living shit out of me with their sticks and fists.

There's a police brutality problem in this country, for sure. That is without question. It's massive and it's systemic. It's not just a few bad apples. It's the entire police culture that is rotten to the core. The police are over-militarized, trained poorly, and vetted poorly. Just about any dumb asshole can become a police officer if they really want to. It's not that hard. Believe me, I know more than a couple of them. And the culture inside the police department where they lie and cover for each other in order protect the shield and protect their "brothers" breeds bad police officers that abuse their powers. Not everyone that becomes a police officer is cut out to actually be a police officer. They are suppose to serve and protect the public. Unfortunately in far too many cases they protect themselves first and forget the serve the public part. Shoot first, ask questions later. That's not what the job is meant to be. It's a public service. A noble one at that. And it's a dangerous, unforgiving, thankless job. But it's a job that someone chooses. Nobody makes you become a police officer. There are risks associated with the job, and if you can't properly deal with those risks then you shouldn't be a police officer. It's way too militarized, way too right wing, and way too protected and held unaccountable.

And there are way too many former military service members that come home suffering from PTSD and just go right into the police force and take out their issues out on the public instead of not working and being in hardcore therapy for years like most of them need to be.

My view is there is a huge police problem in this country- and it disproportionately affects black people. There are more white people total beaten and killed by police officers every single year in this country, but there are a lot more white people in this country. In terms of % of population, blacks are disproportionately abused by police. But they use excessive force and abuse their powers and beat the snot out of white people and shoot and kill white people too. I experienced it first hand.

The US is an over-militarized, over-policed, penal colony. No other country in the entire freaking world has as many people in prisons and jails or as high of an incarceration rate. And blacks are disproportionately affected by a completely ass backwards screwed up system.
I was also beaten up by a cop. 
I also did nothing wrong. He thought I had messed with his girl. Spoiler:  I didn’t.  I honestly think I’d be dead except for my friends happened to be in the car
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 30, 2020, 01:23:10 PM
Texas numbers are becoming more and more of an issue.  They are adding as many cases as New York now.

Wisconsin & North Carolina also making big jumps this week.

California close to getting on the radar as well.

CT, NY, and NJ have all exceeded the 1 in 1000 people death rate. (of total population, not infected).  MA will likely join them in the next few days.

Georgia numbers continue to look good, despite being "open."  Perhaps maybe a model to follow here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2020, 01:37:30 PM
There hasn't been much of a model to follow here that is notably different from anywhere else.  The bars and clubs were just allowed to reopen, which concerns me, the Nook here is open today, and crowded, though the tables are separated.

Were I in charge, I would have kept some limits on a few counties that were hit hard for another couple of weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 30, 2020, 05:14:37 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 30, 2020, 01:40:32 PM
No that was the same assholes destroying Mn/STPL and helping themselves to what ever they could.As they were marching for justice and social change of course
Those folks in Minnesota sure are racking up the frequent flier miles, then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on May 30, 2020, 05:17:55 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 30, 2020, 05:14:37 PM
Those folks in Minnesota sure are racking up the frequent flier miles, then.
It's a Delta hub.  Surprisingly cheap city to fly into.

But I think at the time we are calling people fighting against racial injustice monkeys, might be time for another lock?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 31, 2020, 09:51:30 PM
we need to bring back this thread

its been dead long enough
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 31, 2020, 09:56:04 PM
people are over the virus

we flattened the curve - winner!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 31, 2020, 10:00:17 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 31, 2020, 09:56:04 PM
people are over the virus

we flattened the curve - winner!
right now we moved on to pillaging

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 31, 2020, 10:42:16 PM
AZ had it's most new cases to date.  Gee, I wonder why?!?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on May 31, 2020, 10:49:01 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 31, 2020, 09:56:04 PM
people are over the virus

we flattened the curve - winner!
Eh, we just half assed it for as long as was mildly bearable.

USA!  USA!  USA!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 31, 2020, 11:12:51 PM
Quote from: ELA on May 31, 2020, 10:49:01 PM
Eh, we just half assed it for as long as was mildly bearable.

USA!  USA!  USA!
It's the American way!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 01, 2020, 12:15:41 AM
Imagine what strength and unity we'd display if we had to, oh, go to war with China.

I get wanting to open things up.  I don't get wanting to open things up and refusing to wear a mask.

We wore masks in 1918 while we were winning a world war.  And nobody bitched about a mask being an infringement of civil rights.  And nobody called mask-wearers cucks or cowards.  Amazing that we could do that.

Now we refuse to wear masks because--why?--and we are withdrawing in defeat from Afghanistan, having been beaten by a band of terrorists out of the 11th century.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 01, 2020, 12:25:06 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 01, 2020, 12:15:41 AM
We wore masks in 1918 while we were winning a world war.  And nobody bitched about a mask being an infringement of civil rights.  And nobody called mask-wearers cucks or cowards.  Amazing that we could do that.
Apparently during Spanish flu people did complain about masks being an infringement of civil liberties. And there was a whole propaganda campaign to get men to wear them because they deemed it "feminine" to wear a mask.

What's old is new again.... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 01, 2020, 12:32:38 AM
Do you have a source for that Bwarb?  I'm not challenging you, I'd just like to see the information because I'm a history teacher.

I haven't investigated the 1918-19 flu in any depth.  But all the pictures I've seen of people responding to it show everyone in masks.  Cops. Civilians.  Medical people.  Major league baseball players (in the spring of 1919 when Phase II hit).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 01, 2020, 08:51:07 AM
In 1918, viruses had not been discovered, we didn't have electron microscopes obviously.  People wore masks back then to try and do something and they thought it might protect THEM from "germs".

Asians wear masks often, and it seems to work pretty well.  I have come to think wide spread mask wearing is about all we need to cut R naught.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 01, 2020, 09:01:36 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 01, 2020, 12:32:38 AM
Do you have a source for that Bwarb?  I'm not challenging you, I'd just like to see the information because I'm a history teacher.

I haven't investigated the 1918-19 flu in any depth.  But all the pictures I've seen of people responding to it show everyone in masks.  Cops. Civilians.  Medical people.  Major league baseball players (in the spring of 1919 when Phase II hit).

This was the one I was originally thinking of: https://www.businessinsider.com/people-vintage-mask-ads-spanish-flu-1918-pandemic-2020-5#the-spanish-flu-outbreak-coincided-with-world-war-l-male-soldiers-returning-home-from-europe-dispersed-to-their-home-states-and-stations-spreading-the-disease-in-the-process-3 (https://www.businessinsider.com/people-vintage-mask-ads-spanish-flu-1918-pandemic-2020-5#the-spanish-flu-outbreak-coincided-with-world-war-l-male-soldiers-returning-home-from-europe-dispersed-to-their-home-states-and-stations-spreading-the-disease-in-the-process-3)

Here's another just found via the googles...

https://www.history.com/news/1918-spanish-flu-mask-wearing-resistance
 (https://www.history.com/news/1918-spanish-flu-mask-wearing-resistance)
I'm not sure how prevalent this was, of course. It's possible that it was only a small minority which refused. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 01, 2020, 09:04:41 AM
The maximum number of deaths in 1918 was in October, by far, it was a spike.  I don't think many soldiers were returning home in October because the war went on another month.  Even the wounded would have been treated in France, those who had been wounded seriously in July or so might have been returned to the States in some numbers.

We were bringing in some German POWs who could have had the flu.  But, it was not asymptomatic for days as this COVID is.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 01, 2020, 10:03:08 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 06, 2020, 01:21:27 PM
Good take on multiple models: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/ (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/)

A key aspect is basically all of the models assume continued social distancing practices, and all are predicting a much lower average death rate than what we're seeing now between now and May 30, the end of their predictions. The midpoint projections range between 93K by May 30 and 111K by May 30.

That means that given ~25 days between now and then, and current deaths at ~72K, a range of ~840 average daily deaths on the low midpoint and ~1560 average daily deaths for the high midpoint.

Right now the worldometers has implemented a 7-day moving average curve on their web site which peaked on Apr 20 at 2208 deaths/day and has slowly declined, with May 4 showing 1858 deaths/day. This will be of course a lagging measure of actual death rate with a 7-day lag, but due to weekly and daily variation you really need some smoothing.

Given that states are starting to open up (whether officially in some cases or by people simply flouting restrictions or increasing movement in places like CA), I suspect that we're not going to see a sharp decline during the month of May, and actual deaths by May 30 will be >111K. That's my prediction.
Because I believe in accountability, I will point out that I predicted total deaths by May 30 of >111K, and the actual number was about 105.5K.

As Cincy pointed out, the models were updated and suggest a midpoint estimate of 117K by June 13 with high value of 123K. 

Looking at the 7-day moving average, the last week plateaued at 1K/day. With 106K now and basically 12 days to go, we'll hit that 117K if nothing changes positive or negative. So this will be a good time to watch whether the plateau in deaths was a pause in a decline, a flattening, or a reversal of trend (towards increasing rates). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 01, 2020, 10:37:59 AM
From The Dispatch:

Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2444%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Fecbe586e-a23e-400b-a703-da7063bf6fc5_1222x409.png&t=1591020491&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1cee-a20001014000&sig=yxv5q5FKbKkLwQfRTMYfxg--~C) (http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUsuO5CAM_JrmlohnkxxyGK20vxEZcGjUCWSAzEzP1y_pnFZCpuRXWS5bqOhTfk17KpUcBfMc3CT5KDTTpCHHBjWQUOYlI24Q1qnmA8l-mDVYqCHFs4ArxUbymPiitABEZNQMg9PWGLtoKq3RjI8LkJNmhsMFjBYn_ML8ShHJOj1q3ctNfNz43_asi305TKlgn71NW3OFDTy2f8FqH2fKvIYt1Bv_s7SGNTXweQHx4VNyZ2Cd95x8xlLCFzZ_qYh7q73IuDrp1EnYjDnsE1s8d0hVG3uQnQEQnRQau1GxoQNnBDeo9TjIvogeNvhNEb7LNWHrcW3lDd_jljdEa1ANd-yAC-wkpaYDTUXnmr0Ls9wXq2bGOf-RdOz36EmYOOWU3iljjDMqe9abB0aPT1NcvUm6ef7ffkieMkTXmxy8Ly2hGOvXZGDtI9ZTrbllbUcM9TVjBLOiu4Ssl_JvXeprxynid1mxVsyXs6mr6F1LSRqhS-0E4rSlHEP0LpQdmhr_ADeFwWc)
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2406%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F8b86a39b-d3f8-43ec-9f8a-80722c68c2f6_1203x748.png&t=1591020491&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1cee-a20001014000&sig=BlSRuBj3FQN.smcKRdsnsA--~C) (http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUkmO5CAQfE1xs8Vq4OBDa6T5hsWSplDb4AbcPTWvH1w-jYQglEtEKgNnGoRcXvORa0NnhbJEP3OqmSQSdeSJEgrFuqwFYDdxm1s5AR2n3aIzLeZ0NVAhiEbPeQLpNTg6GW4k0ROWevJaakuIACElumQWc_oIycEM31BeOQHa5mdrR32wjwf93Y_zaaynrc24z9HlvYfibgL0d4XmnlfJssU9tgf9tXbCljv4ugH7CDn7K7EtR8mhQK3xG3q8NoCj995iVFxy4hLslz3dJ_R8GQALa53igzWGDZxJGLQgajDeMmpBSq34WNlodvM3J_NT7wk7x72VN3yPW99QWTUZpu3g2ao6H7hBr8oMCktK3aQcXaeFUMz-SK7GIwUUZ4opxhMmhFCC-UhG-4QU4NNW3x4c74H-tx9U5mKSH22JIdReUK0LW7ZmGxO0y62lV-1niu21QDJ2A38b2W7n37601wFzgp-6QWtQ7mB3V-BJco66oM_9C6R5zyXFFHysh-lu_AOo8b_R)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 01, 2020, 10:57:51 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 01, 2020, 09:01:36 AM
This was the one I was originally thinking of: https://www.businessinsider.com/people-vintage-mask-ads-spanish-flu-1918-pandemic-2020-5#the-spanish-flu-outbreak-coincided-with-world-war-l-male-soldiers-returning-home-from-europe-dispersed-to-their-home-states-and-stations-spreading-the-disease-in-the-process-3 (https://www.businessinsider.com/people-vintage-mask-ads-spanish-flu-1918-pandemic-2020-5#the-spanish-flu-outbreak-coincided-with-world-war-l-male-soldiers-returning-home-from-europe-dispersed-to-their-home-states-and-stations-spreading-the-disease-in-the-process-3)

Here's another just found via the googles...

https://www.history.com/news/1918-spanish-flu-mask-wearing-resistance
 (https://www.history.com/news/1918-spanish-flu-mask-wearing-resistance)
I'm not sure how prevalent this was, of course. It's possible that it was only a small minority which refused.
Thanks!

I didn't think that the Business Insider article made your point very well (in fact, the article is sort of a muddle), but the History.com item does.

Enforcement weakened after the war was over, and that's understandable.  The need to keep young men healthy so that they could go fight in France was over.
I think I've read that the U.S. armed forces lost as many men to the flu as they did through battle deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 01, 2020, 11:13:27 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 01, 2020, 12:15:41 AM
Imagine what strength and unity we'd display if we had to, oh, go to war with China.

I get wanting to open things up.  I don't get wanting to open things up and refusing to wear a mask.

We wore masks in 1918 while we were winning a world war.  And nobody bitched about a mask being an infringement of civil rights.  And nobody called mask-wearers cucks or cowards.  Amazing that we could do that.

Now we refuse to wear masks because--why?--and we are withdrawing in defeat from Afghanistan, having been beaten by a band of terrorists out of the 11th century.
unfortunately, I don't think the strength and unity of declaring war on china would be anything like what happened in 1941
I'd guess it would be more like the response to the Vietnam conflict or Kuwait
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 01, 2020, 11:21:43 AM
Right, because doing that would be insane.  If for no other reason than if you removed everything from a WalMart that was produced in China, it'd look like a mini-mart.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 01, 2020, 11:26:10 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 01, 2020, 11:13:27 AM
unfortunately, I don't think the strength and unity of declaring war on china would be anything like what happened in 1941
I'd guess it would be more like the response to the Vietnam conflict or Kuwait
I should have posted a "semi-irony" emoji after my comment about going to war with China.  I don't think we'd be unified in going to war against invading aliens, much less Chinese.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 01, 2020, 12:00:15 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 01, 2020, 11:26:10 AM
I should have posted a "semi-irony" emoji after my comment about going to war with China.  I don't think we'd be unified in going to war against invading aliens, much less Chinese.
especially if they voted democrat 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 01, 2020, 12:09:51 PM
I don't even know how we could start a war with China if we wanted, other than a preemptive massive nuclear strike.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 01, 2020, 01:12:33 PM
Texas numbers continue to surge.  They added over 8000 cases last week.

They will likely pass PA in number of active cases in the next 2 to 3 days.

Very concerning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 01, 2020, 01:15:24 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 01, 2020, 01:12:33 PM
Texas numbers continue to surge.  They added over 8000 cases last week.

They will likely pass PA in number of active cases in the next 2 to 3 days.

Very concerning.
For anyone who thought that the warm weather would cause this to diminish, you can just look at California, Texas, and Florida for evidence the opposite direction. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 01, 2020, 01:16:25 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 01, 2020, 11:26:10 AM
I should have posted a "semi-irony" emoji after my comment about going to war with China.  I don't think we'd be unified in going to war against invading aliens, much less Chinese.
unless the Chinese bombed Pearl Harbor
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 01, 2020, 01:30:57 PM
So we had a couple of errands to run yesterday, and I'd just gotten an email that one of our local breweries had reopened for seated dining. 

It's now reservation-only, so we made a reservation and figured we'd give it a shot. 

When we hit our wine bar on Friday, there was a small undercurrent of "this isn't normal" there, but once we got on the patio with a bottle of wine, overlooking the lake, that went away quickly. It was a really good experience, with the feeling like maybe we're gonna be ok.

The brewery was not quite so good. Something about the whole thing just seemed awkward, and the feeling never really went away. All the rules and restrictions made it seemed like we were trying to force a sense of normalcy, and you can't force it. My wife and I both walked away from it thinking "if this is what it's going to be like under COVID-19, we're just not going to do it."

It was disappointing. I want to support these businesses, and their workers, but at the same time I don't know if the "new normal" is worth going out at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 01, 2020, 01:42:02 PM
Georgia is pretty flat still ... the protests may well kick that up in ten days, I rather expect it.

We've dined out a few times and the new arrangements didn't bother us at all, except that for brunch our favorite place was full (which is good for the place of course).  We were unable to sit outside, they had one table inside, it was fine.

We're going to try Sweetwater Brewery soon, they are only open 3-8 now.  They have a great outdoor area, and a lot of beers you can't get anywhere else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 01, 2020, 02:33:06 PM
Really interesting article about the potential mechanisms by which COVID-19 works, which might explain some of the weirdness of this disease:

https://elemental.medium.com/coronavirus-may-be-a-blood-vessel-disease-which-explains-everything-2c4032481ab2 (https://elemental.medium.com/coronavirus-may-be-a-blood-vessel-disease-which-explains-everything-2c4032481ab2)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 01, 2020, 05:13:16 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 01, 2020, 01:12:33 PM
Texas numbers continue to surge.  They added over 8000 cases last week.

They will likely pass PA in number of active cases in the next 2 to 3 days.

Very concerning.
Huh? 

Cases increase as testing increases, and vice versa.  One tracks directly with the other.  The percent positive percentage has dropped steadily week over week since the peak on April 5th.  Hospitalizations and deaths fluctuate but the rolling averages are trending slightly down.

Comparing absolute numbers to Pennsylvania is silly, since Texas has more than double the population.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 01, 2020, 05:26:14 PM
That said-- I was tested for COVID19 today, and also tested for the antibodies.

I received a call from the Austin/Travis County department of public health on Saturday, alerting me that I came in direct contact with a person with a confirmed case of COVID19 on May 20th.  That's the day I got my hair cut, and my hair cutter tested positive a few days later.  She contacted me the same day as the public health department to let me know, and we talked.  She has been completely asymptomatic, but has obviously closed down her business once again until she is in the clear.'

I too have had no symptoms, nothing at all to make me think I've been infected, but I suppose you never know and better safe than sorry.

A few thoughts

1) They're definitely contact tracing, at least here in Austin/Texas.  This was a pretty easy trace, though, as she saw only a limited number of clients before she found out.  I can't imagine how they can contact trace contact/exposure at bars/restaurants.  Or, protests.  Or, riots with looting.

2) The swab test is really, REALLY unpleasant.  Imagine a foot-long q-tip jabbed through your nose and into your brain, and then swished around for a full ten seconds.  My eyes watered and the nurse apologized for making me cry.  I said, "I'm not crying, YOU'RE crying."  She laughed.  But yeah, that really sucked.

3) My doc also advised the antibody test, that was easy, just a standard  blood draw.

4) They said I'll know the results of the swab test in 5 days.  Critical medical providers supposedly hear back in 3 days.  That's not nearly fast enough.  But I don't know if a "rapid test" would yield even less reliable results?

5) I should know the results of the antibody test in 3 days.  I guess that seems normal.

6) It was quite easy for me to get tested.  Here in large cities, in my part of the country, I think it' fair to say testing is widespread and anyone who really wants to get one, can get it same-day.  They're not going to test you just for the fun of it, you'd need to show symptoms or contact with a positive, but to me that's an appropriate level of testing for the general public.

So there you have it, I'll let you all know in the next 3-5 days whether or not I've been infected with The Coronas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 01, 2020, 05:31:10 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 01, 2020, 05:26:14 PM
That said-- I was tested for COVID19 today, and also tested for the antibodies.

2) The swab test is really, REALLY unpleasant.  Imagine a foot-long q-tip jabbed through your nose and into your brain, and then swished around for a full ten seconds.  My eyes watered and the nurse apologized for making me cry.  I said, "I'm not crying, YOU'RE crying."  She laughed.  But yeah, that really sucked.


So there you have it, I'll let you all know in the next 3-5 days whether or not I've been infected with The Coronas.
good luck, Utee

I did the swab test back in October.  Yes, unpleasant, but not horrible.  They were checking for strep and something else.  tests were negative.  I've always hoped that I got a really early COVID-19, that they weren't testing for at the time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 01, 2020, 05:34:05 PM
Thanks Fearless.  I don't imagine I'll test positive, but I'm glad to have taken the tests and hopefully they can tell me something.  I'm certainly not feeling any symptoms, which now that we're at Day 13 past exposure, the doc told me I should be, if I were going to have any.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 01, 2020, 05:50:05 PM
Yeah, I've heard the swab test for COVID is even worse than the swab test for influenza... 

I don't recall exactly when, but sometime in the last 12-15 months I had to take my son in for the influenza test. He's 10 years old with pretty severe autism, and they had to jab that thing up his nose. I died a little inside that day--it was excruciating and it wasn't even my nose :-( 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 01, 2020, 05:56:55 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 01, 2020, 05:34:05 PM
Thanks Fearless.  I don't imagine I'll test positive, but I'm glad to have taken the tests and hopefully they can tell me something.  I'm certainly not feeling any symptoms, which now that we're at Day 13 past exposure, the doc told me I should be, if I were going to have any.
How did they know how to contact you
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 01, 2020, 06:27:07 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 01, 2020, 05:56:55 PM
How did they know how to contact you

Got the client list from the haircutter I'd imagine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 01, 2020, 06:31:04 PM
Contact tracing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 01, 2020, 06:35:49 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 01, 2020, 05:13:16 PM
Huh?

Cases increase as testing increases, and vice versa.  One tracks directly with the other.  The percent positive percentage has dropped steadily week over week since the peak on April 5th.  Hospitalizations and deaths fluctuate but the rolling averages are trending slightly down.

Comparing absolute numbers to Pennsylvania is silly, since Texas has more than double the population.
Until they run out of tests, which was the situation in the NE until relatively recently.

Our test positive rate is in the single digits these days, and they are able to do contact tracing again.

We are nearly clear of this thing.

Yinz Texicans better not mess this up...

What is your positive test rate?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 01, 2020, 06:36:41 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 01, 2020, 12:09:51 PM
I don't even know how we could start a war with China if we wanted, other than a preemptive massive nuclear strike.
China doesn't have to strike us - were doing it ourselves
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 01, 2020, 06:39:19 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 01, 2020, 02:33:06 PM
Really interesting article about the potential mechanisms by which COVID-19 works, which might explain some of the weirdness of this disease:

https://elemental.medium.com/coronavirus-may-be-a-blood-vessel-disease-which-explains-everything-2c4032481ab2 (https://elemental.medium.com/coronavirus-may-be-a-blood-vessel-disease-which-explains-everything-2c4032481ab2)
About 3 weeks back I mentioned this a doctor had been treating his patients with blood thinners and statins one lady rallied for a week before passing.But she had stage 4 cancer and diabetes
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 01, 2020, 06:45:39 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 01, 2020, 06:31:04 PM
Contact tracing.

Yup.  Like I said, it's being done.  At least, it's being done HERE.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 01, 2020, 06:51:25 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 01, 2020, 06:35:49 PM
Until they run out of tests, which was the situation in the NE until relatively recently.

Our test positive rate is in the single digits these days, and they are able to do contact tracing again.

We are nearly clear of this thing.

Yinz Texicans better not mess this up...

What is your positive test rate?
Test availability continues to increase here.  But the outbreak also clearly isn't anywhere near as bad, here. 

Positive rate is 5.6% currently. It hit its peak at 11.4% on 4/5, and has been below 10% since 4/19.

I won't be surprised with some slight increases though, as a result of "opening up."  It's to be expected, and as long as we don't overwhelm the hospitals, it's something we're going to have to learn to live with.

Heck, I might even have it, right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 01, 2020, 07:10:25 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 01, 2020, 06:51:25 PM
Test availability continues to increase here.  But the outbreak also clearly isn't anywhere near as bad, here. 

Positive rate is 5.6% currently. It hit its peak at 11.4% on 4/5, and has been below 10% since 4/19.

I won't be surprised with some slight increases though, as a result of "opening up."  It's to be expected, and as long as we don't overwhelm the hospitals, it's something we're going to have to learn to live with.

Heck, I might even have it, right now.

Sadly, I believe you are correct.

Not sure what this means to my business, as I sell to schools, but I'll adapt.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 01, 2020, 07:19:11 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 01, 2020, 07:10:25 PM
Sadly, I believe you are correct.

Not sure what this means to my business, as I sell to schools, but I'll adapt.
Hang in there bud, I sincerely hope all is well.  Adaptation will be key for sure, at least for the time being.

Like I keep saying, ultimately I expect "the new normal" to look pretty much like "the old normal."  But it's going to take us a while to get there.

For what it's worth, schools down here are almost certain to reopen in the Fall, in person.  Looks like many (most, all?) of them are going to adopt an early-approach-- open a week or two earlier than planned in August, run straight through to Thanksgiving, and then shut down from T-day through mid-January.  The idea is that all of the "mingling and mixing" that will occur on Tday as kids are released, and as the normal Fall/Winter flu/illness season kicks in, will give the virus a chance to run its course over a 6-8 week period, so that when school starts back up in January, there will be less chance of transmission.

Not sure how that will work out, because I honestly believe we'll be in a "slow burn" from now through then, and beyond.  But maybe it'll help...

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 01, 2020, 07:21:50 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 01, 2020, 01:16:25 PM
unless the Chinese bombed Pearl Harbor
Not even then.  We are not the same people we were on 7 Dec 1941.
In some ways, that's for the better.  We don't quarantine American citizens who happen to have different color of skin.  We don't have a legally segregated society or a segregated military.
But I am very skeptical of our ability to respond to a foreign military threat the way we did after Pearl Harbor.  I'm skeptical of our ability to respond to a threat like the 9/11 attacks.
And we certainly aren't united on what to do--if anything--about the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 01, 2020, 08:01:41 PM
sadly, I agree

I also think in many ways the world is a better place
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 01, 2020, 09:13:55 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 01, 2020, 07:19:11 PM
Hang in there bud, I sincerely hope all is well.  Adaptation will be key for sure, at least for the time being.

Like I keep saying, ultimately I expect "the new normal" to look pretty much like "the old normal."  But it's going to take us a while to get there.

For what it's worth, schools down here are almost certain to reopen in the Fall, in person.  Looks like many (most, all?) of them are going to adopt an early-approach-- open a week or two earlier than planned in August, run straight through to Thanksgiving, and then shut down from T-day through mid-January.  The idea is that all of the "mingling and mixing" that will occur on Tday as kids are released, and as the normal Fall/Winter flu/illness season kicks in, will give the virus a chance to run its course over a 6-8 week period, so that when school starts back up in January, there will be less chance of transmission.

Not sure how that will work out, because I honestly believe we'll be in a "slow burn" from now through then, and beyond.  But maybe it'll help...


Eh.  I'll be alright.  Gives me more time to spend on CFN.  haha
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 02, 2020, 12:08:08 AM
Spending time on the internet and social media is good for the soul.



--Said no one, ever ;)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 01:05:53 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 01, 2020, 01:15:24 PM
For anyone who thought that the warm weather would cause this to diminish, you can just look at California, Texas, and Florida for evidence the opposite direction.
But someone assured us that the warm weather would matter!  I can't say his name, because apparently I'm full of hate and unjustly blame him for things.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 01:07:54 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 01, 2020, 05:56:55 PM
How did they know how to contact you
Because they're always watching...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 02, 2020, 07:11:45 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 01:05:53 AM
But someone assured us that the warm weather would matter!  
That was probably me, after I heard on the news that this virus does not like heat and/or humidity.

Florida's % positive is now at 5.5, which I take as good news, since the state began opening a month ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 02, 2020, 07:14:32 AM
Covid doesn't like sunlight (UV).  We have longer days now.  It could have a modest impact.

But I think mainly the surface contagion was over sold initially, I can understand why that would have happened.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 02, 2020, 07:22:49 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 02, 2020, 07:11:45 AM
That was probably me, after I heard on the news that this virus does not like heat and/or humidity.
It's OK Badge you've got company
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 02, 2020, 08:36:26 AM
The only problem with the virus does not like heat theory is that South America would be much lower in case count
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 02, 2020, 08:41:31 AM
Influenza obviously is less prevalent in summer, it's not entirely certain why.  Coronaviruses can be, but not always (colds).  Some of this is probably due to changes in lifestyles in winter, and possibly some due to changes in our nasal permeability (due to dryness indoors in winter).

I don't think we should count on any summer break, but if that doesn't occur is perhaps lessens a chance of a fall resurgence.

Wear a mask to protect others if you cannot distance and wash your hands, keep the elderly safe, and we should be OK.

Oh, and mass crowded events should be avoided ....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 02, 2020, 08:44:37 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 02, 2020, 08:36:26 AM
The only problem with the virus does not like heat theory is that South America would be much lower in case count
Southern hemisphere is in Fall season now, heading into Winter.

I haven't looked at their numbers, nor have I followed them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 02, 2020, 08:47:11 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 02, 2020, 08:41:31 AM

Oh, and mass crowded events should be avoided ....
This is the key. It will be interesting to see if there are any spikes with all of the chaos around the country right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 02, 2020, 08:57:37 AM
I'd be shocked if we don't see a spike in 10-14 days, shocked.  

Just one contagious person in those crowds could spread it to 10-20-30 others, easily, per day.

There has never been evidence in Australia that this is seasonal, and Brazil is catching it now probably owing to travel being slow to take it there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 02, 2020, 09:17:42 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 02, 2020, 08:57:37 AM
I'd be shocked if we don't see a spike in 10-14 days, shocked. 
Then I'd truly believe in Kharma
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 02, 2020, 09:21:42 AM
Throughout January, the World Health Organization publicly praised China for what it called a speedy response to the new coronavirus. It repeatedly thanked the Chinese government for sharing the genetic map of the virus “immediately,” and said its work and commitment to transparency were “very impressive, and beyond words.”

But behind the scenes, it was a much different story, one of significant delays by China and considerable frustration among WHO officials over not getting the information they needed to fight the spread of the deadly virus, The Associated Press has found.

Despite the plaudits, China in fact sat on releasing the genetic map, or genome, of the virus for more than a week after three different government labs had fully decoded the information. Tight controls on information and competition within the Chinese public health system were to blame, according to dozens of interviews and internal documents.


Chinese government labs only released the genome after another lab published it ahead of authorities on a virologist website on Jan. 11. Even then, China stalled for at least two weeks more on providing WHO with detailed data on patients and cases, according to recordings of internal meetings held by the U.N. health agency through January — all at a time when the outbreak arguably might have been dramatically slowed.

https://apnews.com/3c061794970661042b18d5aeaaed9fae (https://apnews.com/3c061794970661042b18d5aeaaed9fae)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 02, 2020, 09:37:39 AM
F China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 02, 2020, 10:35:03 AM

(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2912%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Fbc8ddbc6-63f4-42ac-857c-35d997f1b2d7_1600x538.png&t=1591108235&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1c3e-9c000101ef00&sig=ZwSX6MrpfxtMP3DYYKMsew--~C) (http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUsuO3CAQ_JrxzRYPY-wDh9VK-Q2rgTZDFoMDOJvJ1wePT5EQlPpR1erCQEWX8ksdqdTuLJhXb9XIFi6p7BqydBZz58u6ZcQdfFA1n9gdpw7eQPUpXg1MCLp0T2UmTmfDNJOUML3IDYCOksmFjOMEdukumRVO6zEaVCmG15u4C-pZ61Ee_OPBfrRjbBzKqUsF8zWYtLeQ38Fhezes5nmVrMHvvj7Y59YYa2rg1w34h0vJXomwHjm5jKX439jipSIerfcWY-KSE5dgu_RpvrDlc49EaG3msdcAvB-5xH4RdO7Bas40SrnM41D4ADv8TRG-yz1h47jX8obvccvNbGZrtZn6iW9jPzIw_Syk6bmwS9sR1czKlU6E_BF8Ho7oOq8YYYRMhFFKF84GOkQO8DMTk517jGR37L_9dFlliHbQ2TtXWkHRxoWkIQwR62XX2qr2M_r6WjGCDmhvJ-tt_duY-jpQRfwuAWvFfAebvaK5ObGuCdrU_kBUe8rRR2d9OaC58Q8ujL_o)
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2912%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Fadeee324-8828-4af7-b90d-d985ea9adf67_1600x992.png&t=1591108235&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1c3e-9c000101ef00&sig=J7ACW008z5dBqzWYwDxNqw--~C) (http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUsuO3CAQ_JrxzRZPGw4-rFbKb1gNtBmyNjiAs5l8ffD4FAlBqR9VrS4sVPQpv-YjldqdBfMS3CyY5hOduoYcVVJ1oSxrRtwhbHPNJ3bHabZgoYYUrwYmJdXdc2YOhUW9CgZmUtM6WkmlWAURZFKUQXfJLHC6gNHinOL2ehN32_ys9SgP_vFgP9qxLg7lNKWC_Rps2lso7OCxvStW-7xKli3soT7Y59oYa2rg1w34h0_JXYltOXLyGUsJv7HFS0U8Wu8txuQlJy_BdpnTfmHL5x6JNMYq0RsA3gs-Ya8lVT04w5nBadJKDIUPsMPfFOG73BM2jnstb_get7whOETkTPRKMdULWKfeaOJ6p5VE0ODWcVroSMgfrdlwRN-FmRFGyEgYpVRzNtAhcoCfmdjs_UOQ3bP_9tPlOUN0g8nB-9IKirF-Swa2IWK97Fpa1X7GUF8LRjAbutvJelv_Nqa-DpwjfpcNa8V8B5u9khI2sq4JutT-QJz3lGOI3oVyQHPjHyiowI4)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 11:36:22 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 02, 2020, 08:36:26 AM
The only problem with the virus does not like heat theory is that South America would be much lower in case count
:57:
Seriously?

Oh, okay, badge told him.  Sheesh.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 11:37:37 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 02, 2020, 08:44:37 AM
Southern hemisphere is in Fall season now, heading into Winter.

I haven't looked at their numbers, nor have I followed them.
Brazil's are skyrocketing because they have a dipshit leader who ignores what the 'nerds' say, too. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 11:38:37 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 02, 2020, 07:11:45 AM
That was probably me, after I heard on the news that this virus does not like heat and/or humidity.

Florida's % positive is now at 5.5, which I take as good news, since the state began opening a month ago.
You got it from Trump, who made it up.  C'mon, man.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 02, 2020, 11:40:16 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 11:38:37 AM
You got it from Trump, who made it up.  C'mon, man.
Please stop with the fake news and blaming Trump. A group of scientist came out and showed evidence that the virus does not live as long on surfaces in the heat. They had proof. That doesn’t mean much of anything besides what they said but it wasn’t made up so quit it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 02, 2020, 11:45:11 AM
Listen, a lot of people were hopeful that it would decrease in the summer, because we know there are lots of viruses [like the flu] which do that. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 02, 2020, 11:52:59 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 02, 2020, 11:45:11 AM
Listen, a lot of people were hopeful that it would decrease in the summer, because we know there are lots of viruses [like the flu] which do that.


I'm not so sure why folks on here believe there's evidence to the contrary, citing Florida Texas and California?.  I haven't looked at Cali's numbers, but in Florida and Texas-- where the states began opening up over 4 weeks ago-- hospitalizations and deaths are not skyrocketing.  They're pretty steady  despite some volatility in the data.

That doesn't necessarily suggest that the heat diminishes the virus, but it also doesn't suggest that it has zero effect.  We could even speculate that the steadiness of the numbers indicates that the heat DOES have some effect, because I'd expect the hospitalizations and deaths to trend upward after opening up, but we're not really seeing that, so it could be that the heat is countering that.  I'm not saying that's a certainty, but I believe it's a reasonable hypothesis at this point. 

More than that, though, what I really wonder, is how effective does the virus transmit in the open air, in the sunlight, in public places?  The media assured us that the Spring Break revelry on the beaches in Florida and Texas spelled certain disaster for case counts in those states, but that never really materialized.  It's plausible that the virus just doesn't transmit well in the open air with sunlight, heat, and wind.  Again, not saying that's a certain thing, but we have at least some evidence that expected flare-ups never occurred.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 02, 2020, 12:30:17 PM
Sunlight (UV) deactivates the virus, clearly, I don't know how quickly, but probably in minutes.

The issue with seasons could well be how our nasal passages change with the dry heat in our homes in winter.

I think the main transmission is either direct contact or via a sneeze/cough cloud, not from surfaces.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 02, 2020, 12:31:54 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 02, 2020, 11:52:59 AM
I'm not so sure why folks on here believe there's evidence to the contrary, citing Florida Texas and California?.  I haven't looked at Cali's numbers, but in Florida and Texas-- where the states began opening up over 4 weeks ago-- hospitalizations and deaths are not skyrocketing.  They're pretty steady  despite some volatility in the data.
California cases keep going up, and deaths have stayed constant. 

I think seasonally the flu would be dropping off by now, whereas COVID-19 is continuing to spread without much trouble. 

One of the reasons that it was originally thrown out there was that CA/FL/TX didn't get hit as hard as NY/NJ/MI/IL etc. About the only outlier getting hit hard in a warm-weather state was Louisiana. The thought was that weather might have been one of the reasons those states weren't hit hard, and that as things warmed up, those states would drop to near-zero.

Heat may have an impact, but generally this thing isn't going "away" for the summer as people were originally hoping.


Quote
More than that, though, what I really wonder, is how effective does the virus transmit in the open air, in the sunlight, in public places?  The media assured us that the Spring Break revelry on the beaches in Florida and Texas spelled certain disaster for case counts in those states, but that never really materialized.  It's plausible that the virus just doesn't transmit well in the open air with sunlight, heat, and wind.  Again, not saying that's a certain thing, but we have at least some evidence that expected flare-ups never occurred.

I have been reading more that transmission is a little harder than thought, i.e. that it generally requires 10-15 minutes in an enclosed space with an infected person to have high likelihood of transmission. The CDC considers these guidelines to call yourself "exposed" (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/public-health-recommendations.html) if it's not someone in your household, in your care, or an intimate partner:


Quote
Individual who has had close contact (< 6 feet)** for a prolonged period of time ***

***Data are insufficient to precisely define the duration of time that constitutes a prolonged exposure. Recommendations vary on the length of time of exposure but 15 min of close exposure can be used as an operational definition. In healthcare settings, it is reasonable to define a prolonged exposure as any exposure greater than a few minutes because the contact is someone who is ill. Brief interactions are less likely to result in transmission; however, symptoms and the type of interaction (e.g., did the person cough directly into the face of the individual) remain important.


I think if you're walking along the beach and you pass within 6 feet of someone with COVID-19, it wouldn't be considered exposure or high likelihood of transmission. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 02, 2020, 12:43:07 PM
I suspect if you shake hands with an infected person who may have coughed or rubbed his nose, and then you rub your nose ....

That probably is how my kid got it.

If it were truly that infections from hard surfaces, we'd have far more cases by now.  If everyone would wear a mask, it would limit the size of any sneeze cloud.  My GUESS is we'll end up there in September, students go back wearing masks when out and washing hands and that's it, the elderly stay pretty much locked down.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 02, 2020, 12:49:09 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 11:38:37 AM
You got it from Trump, who made it up.  C'mon, man.
I think I read it on the CDC website, or something like that.

I haven't watched a press conference in probably 3 months, or any TV in about 5 weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 12:59:09 PM
This was way back.  Nevermind, you guys are in the bubble.  I apologize for trespassing in your echo chamber.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 02, 2020, 01:01:01 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 02, 2020, 12:31:54 PM
California cases keep going up, and deaths have stayed constant.

I think seasonally the flu would be dropping off by now, whereas COVID-19 is continuing to spread without much trouble.

One of the reasons that it was originally thrown out there was that CA/FL/TX didn't get hit as hard as NY/NJ/MI/IL etc. About the only outlier getting hit hard in a warm-weather state was Louisiana. The thought was that weather might have been one of the reasons those states weren't hit hard, and that as things warmed up, those states would drop to near-zero.

Heat may have an impact, but generally this thing isn't going "away" for the summer as people were originally hoping.


I have been reading more that transmission is a little harder than thought, i.e. that it generally requires 10-15 minutes in an enclosed space with an infected person to have high likelihood of transmission. The CDC considers these guidelines to call yourself "exposed" (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/public-health-recommendations.html) if it's not someone in your household, in your care, or an intimate partner:



I think if you're walking along the beach and you pass within 6 feet of someone with COVID-19, it wouldn't be considered exposure or high likelihood of transmission.


I think the fact that Florida and Texas opened over a month ago, and hospitalizations/deaths haven't climbed significantly, is a decent indicator that the heat DOES have some effect.  But again, that's just my hypothesis.

And for sure, as I've stated many times, I don't think this is ever "going away."  I suspect it'll remain around indefinitely like other coronaviruses have.  Its effects will diminish over time as the population becomes saturated with it.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 01:03:19 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 02, 2020, 11:40:16 AM
Please stop with the fake news and blaming Trump. A group of scientist came out and showed evidence that the virus does not live as long on surfaces in the heat. They had proof. That doesn’t mean much of anything besides what they said but it wasn’t made up so quit it
It wasn't heat, it was ultraviolet radiation.

You may remember Trump's gaff about putting light inside the body or somesuch.

The Coronavirus is actually stubbornly resistant to heat according to WHO.  It requires temperatures of 56C (133F) to be destroyed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 02, 2020, 01:05:24 PM
this President says many things that aren't accurate, he's been doing that for decades before he became President

that's not newsworthy

the media and other asshats taking what the Pres says and twisting into something it's not,  is just an attempt to further their hatred

but, I suppose it makes them feel better about themselves
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 02, 2020, 01:06:14 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 01:03:19 PM
It wasn't heat, it was ultraviolet radiation.

You may remember Trump's gaff about putting light inside the body or somesuch.

The Coronavirus is actually stubbornly resistant to heat according to WHO.  It requires temperatures of 56C (133F) to be destroyed.
I thought he was proposing drinking Lysol? Not sure how one might swallow a UV light...

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 01:08:00 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 02, 2020, 08:44:37 AM
Southern hemisphere is in Fall season now, heading into Winter.

I haven't looked at their numbers, nor have I followed them.
Brazil was in the 80s until just this week.  It was a valid comparison.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 01:09:01 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 02, 2020, 11:40:16 AM
Please stop with the fake news and blaming Trump. A group of scientist came out and showed evidence that the virus does not live as long on surfaces in the heat. They had proof. That doesn’t mean much of anything besides what they said but it wasn’t made up so quit it
UV rays aren't the same as heat.  
Trump said maybe the heat, he said it'll just disappear like a miracle, he's said dozens of nonsensical crap and you defend him, blindly.  Open your eyes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 01:10:06 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 02, 2020, 01:06:14 PM
I thought he was proposing drinking Lysol? Not sure how one might swallow a UV light...


He actually said both...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/health/sunlight-coronavirus-trump.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/health/sunlight-coronavirus-trump.html)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 01:11:01 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 02, 2020, 01:05:24 PM

the media and other asshats taking what the Pres says and twisting into something it's not,  is just an attempt to further their hatred

but, I suppose it makes them feel better about themselves
Do you want me to type out one of his paragraphs and you can explain how clear he is?  He is a world-class chef at word-salad.  He is rarely clear in his message.  He needs subtitles.  People aren't twisting his words, they're trying to untwist them!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 02, 2020, 01:11:16 PM
he said both and both were taken out of context

by asshats
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 01:11:23 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 01:10:06 PM
He actually said both...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/health/sunlight-coronavirus-trump.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/health/sunlight-coronavirus-trump.html)


Don't bother with evidence, they're unswayed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 01:11:58 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 02, 2020, 01:11:16 PM
he said both and both were taken out of context

by asshats
Honestly, I'll type it out and you can decipher it for us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 02, 2020, 01:12:34 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 01:11:01 PM
Do you want me to type out one of his paragraphs and you can explain how clear he is?  He is a world-class chef at word-salad.  He is rarely clear in his message.  He needs subtitles.  People aren't twisting his words, they're trying to untwist them!
sure, let's see the exact quote
if he's unclear, how is it that the media and the left thing they know exactly what he meant?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 02, 2020, 01:15:49 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 01:11:23 PM
Don't bother with evidence, they're unswayed.
no where in there did he suggest drinking bleach

he was simply saying we should consider everything as far as testing is concerned

it was the media that jumped all over this accusing him of being dangerous which was stupid

but hell thats what the left does
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 02, 2020, 01:17:23 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 12:59:09 PM
This was way back.  Nevermind, you guys are in the bubble.  I apologize for trespassing in your echo chamber.
Occasionally POTUS says something, completely without understanding what is going on, that just by accident is accurate or plausible. The idea that the virus would taper off as we approached summer was a mainstream idea, although people were aware it was speculation. 

In fact, that idea continues to stay in everyone's mind because they're talking about a resurgence of the virus "in the fall", when there's no evidence that it's going to taper off in the summer, so a "resurgence" doesn't make logical sense. 

We hoped it was seasonal... It doesn't appear to be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 02, 2020, 01:17:58 PM
If a President actually did say we should drink bleach, and someone does it, well ....

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 01:18:27 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 02, 2020, 01:12:34 PM
sure, let's see the exact quote
if he's unclear, how is it that the media and the left thing they know exactly what he meant?
They don't, and they acknowledge they don't.  They hear what he said, stare at the camera as if to say "WTF" and then try to make sense of it.


"A question that probably some of you are thinking of if you’re totally into that world, which I find to be very interesting. So, supposedly we hit the body with a tremendous, whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light, and I think you said that hasn’t been checked, but you’re going to test it. And then I said supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way.
"And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that, by injection inside or almost a cleaning, because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it’d be interesting to check that, so that you’re going to have to use medical doctors with, but it sounds interesting to me. So, we’ll see, but the whole concept of the light, the way it kills it in one minute. That’s pretty powerful."


Go ahead and twist his actual words.  You're going to anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 02, 2020, 01:20:20 PM
No, he said we should inject disinfectant. 

But his supporters say he never actually suggested anyone do that, he just said doctors should "look into that". Which is technically true. But also dumb. 

If you think doctors should look into that, maybe you should suggest that off-camera...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 02, 2020, 01:20:51 PM
And is there a way we can do something like that,

is that a question to the doctors/experts or is that a statement that folks should inject disinfectant?

I see it as a question, sorry the press did not
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on June 02, 2020, 01:21:43 PM
To be fair.... a lot of experts thought the numbers would decline in the summer.   Most health systems felt there would be a fall surge because of it.   There was a lot we didn't know in March and early April.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 01:26:43 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 02, 2020, 01:12:34 PM
sure, let's see the exact quote
if he's unclear, how is it that the media and the left thing they know exactly what he meant?
The link I posted had a video.  In context.  

You guy don't need to type anything.  Just watch it if you care that much.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 01:29:26 PM
Quote from: Entropy on June 02, 2020, 01:21:43 PM
To be fair.... a lot of experts thought the numbers would decline in the summer.  Most health systems felt there would be a fall surge because of it.  There was a lot we didn't know in March and early April. 


I do not think that is true.  I couldn't find a single expert corroborating this despite spending an entire 5 minutes on the Google.

There was a lot of talk about social distancing ending in the summer, and I think that message may have been misunderstood.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 01:32:03 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 02, 2020, 01:20:51 PM
And is there a way we can do something like that,

is that a question to the doctors/experts or is that a statement that folks should inject disinfectant?

I see it as a question, sorry the press did not
According to Trump, he was sarcastically asking a question to reporters to "see what would happen."

Believe him or not, it really doesn't matter and shouldn't be part of this thread, IMO.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 02, 2020, 01:38:20 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 01:29:26 PM
I do not think that is true.  I couldn't find a single expert corroborating this despite spending an entire 5 minutes on the Google.

There was a lot of talk about social distancing ending in the summer, and I think that message may have been misunderstood.
I recall Fauci talking about it potentially coming back seasonally. Granted, that was likely back in late March or early April. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 02, 2020, 01:47:50 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 02, 2020, 01:38:20 PM
I recall Fauci talking about it potentially coming back seasonally. Granted, that was likely back in late March or early April.
wait a month and he will probably say the opposite 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 02, 2020, 01:50:48 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 01:11:23 PM
Don't bother with evidence, they're unswayed.
I saw it live.  He was very clear.  Basically, he was excited that this had potential.  He did not tell anyone to do anything.
shame on him for having hope.  Had any other person said it the exact way he did....nothingburger.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 02, 2020, 01:52:23 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 01:03:19 PM
It wasn't heat, it was ultraviolet radiation.

You may remember Trump's gaff about putting light inside the body or somesuch.

The Coronavirus is actually stubbornly resistant to heat according to WHO.  It requires temperatures of 56C (133F) to be destroyed.

https://apnews.com/b44f4531071e6204023f7b8e16f59d4b

 (https://apnews.com/b44f4531071e6204023f7b8e16f59d4b)
:73:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 02, 2020, 01:56:48 PM
Thursday’s briefing featured Bill Bryan, head of the science and technology directorate at the Department of Homeland Security, who presented research suggesting that sunlight, high temperatures, and humidity (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/administration-study-finds-high-temperatures-humidity-and-sunlight-kill-the-coronavirus) have a “powerful effect” on the survival of the novel coronavirus (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/coronavirus). He also displayed a slide saying that bleach and isopropyl alcohol “work to kill the virus” on surfaces.

The findings will enhance hopes that COVID-19 will display the same behavior as other respiratory illnesses, such as influenza, that die out in the summer months.


https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/trump-floats-using-uv-light-or-disinfectant-injections-to-treat-covid-19-patients (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/trump-floats-using-uv-light-or-disinfectant-injections-to-treat-covid-19-patients)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 01:58:58 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 02, 2020, 01:50:48 PM
I saw it live.  He was very clear.
This is a total lie.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 02:00:03 PM
Instead of testing, let's just get our disinfectant injections.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 02, 2020, 02:01:02 PM
If getting infected from a hard surface is a rare thing, as I suspect, then the presence of heat or whatever is largely irrelevant.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 02, 2020, 02:03:40 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 01:58:58 PM
This is a total lie. 
Now your just being an idiot.  I did see it live and to me it was very clear.  Plus, look a few posts above and just admit that he had hopes that were not off base at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 02, 2020, 02:04:19 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 02:00:03 PM
Instead of testing, let's just get our disinfectant injections.
That is basically what antibiotics are.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 02:07:26 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 02, 2020, 01:38:20 PM
I recall Fauci talking about it potentially coming back seasonally. Granted, that was likely back in late March or early April.
In the context of his statements, he basically talks about how this would come and go in repeating waves.  He does use the term "seasonal."  Nothing about heat or anything, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 02, 2020, 02:08:01 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 02:00:03 PM
Instead of testing, let's just get our disinfectant injections.
I don't think that's being studied, even though the thought was expressed to Dr. Birx as a hopeful treatment.

Hopefully the scientists and doctors can come up with something, soon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 02:08:28 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 02, 2020, 01:50:48 PM
I saw it live.  He was very clear.  Basically, he was excited that this had potential.  He did not tell anyone to do anything.
shame on him for having hope.  Had any other person said it the exact way he did....nothingburger.
This is untrue, according to Trump.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 02, 2020, 02:09:12 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 02, 2020, 02:01:02 PM
If getting infected from a hard surface is a rare thing, as I suspect, then the presence of heat or whatever is largely irrelevant.


This is what the CDC is now saying, but I still do leave my mask on my dashboard while driving. Can't hurt to have it in the sun.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 02, 2020, 02:10:05 PM
Stop referring to names here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 02:10:46 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 02, 2020, 01:47:50 PM
wait a month and he will probably say the opposite
If that's where the evidence goes, then that's what he should do.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 02:12:40 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 02, 2020, 01:52:23 PM
https://apnews.com/b44f4531071e6204023f7b8e16f59d4b

 (https://apnews.com/b44f4531071e6204023f7b8e16f59d4b)
:73:
This is a press release...

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 02:21:51 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 02, 2020, 01:56:48 PM
Thursday’s briefing featured Bill Bryan, head of the science and technology directorate at the Department of Homeland Security, who presented research suggesting that sunlight, high temperatures, and humidity (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/administration-study-finds-high-temperatures-humidity-and-sunlight-kill-the-coronavirus) have a “powerful effect” on the survival of the novel coronavirus (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/coronavirus). He also displayed a slide saying that bleach and isopropyl alcohol “work to kill the virus” on surfaces.

The findings will enhance hopes that COVID-19 will display the same behavior as other respiratory illnesses, such as influenza, that die out in the summer months.


https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/trump-floats-using-uv-light-or-disinfectant-injections-to-treat-covid-19-patients (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/trump-floats-using-uv-light-or-disinfectant-injections-to-treat-covid-19-patients)
UV light is quite effective. 

Alcohol is quite effective.

High Humidity looks to be not great for the survival of the virus on hard surfaces.

High temperatures being 56C or higher... not summer temps.

Scholarly Article (https://www.hindawi.com/journals/av/2011/734690/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 02:31:06 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 02, 2020, 02:10:05 PM
Stop referring to names here.
Huh?  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 02:31:27 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 02, 2020, 02:09:12 PM
This is what the CDC is now saying, but I still do leave my mask on my dashboard while driving. Can't hurt to have it in the sun.
Right, for the UV rays.  Not the heat or magic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 02, 2020, 02:37:27 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 02:00:03 PM
Instead of testing, let's just get our disinfectant injections.
this is what the press and asshats heard

asshat is a pronoun, correct?  not a name
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 02, 2020, 02:41:14 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 02:12:40 PM
This is a press release...


Yes, by a real company partnering with a real hospital, in Los Angeles.

What's your point? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 02, 2020, 02:41:41 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 02, 2020, 02:37:27 PM
this is what the press and asshats heard

asshat is a pronoun, correct?  not a name
😅😅😅.  Thanks Fearless- I needed that. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 02:48:17 PM
What's with the not naming names?  If it's what I think it is, I'm embarrassed for you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 02, 2020, 02:52:46 PM
I don't want political discussion here. Again, we can talk policy (we tried in a thread) but naming politicians to me incites people and sends a thread tumbling.

We need ideas, and we need them fast. If that company and hospital researching the UV light to fight this virus within someone's lungs can actually work, I would call it a miracle. It just so happens that it was brought up in a presser a couple of months ago. If it works, who cares??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 02, 2020, 02:55:25 PM
Who's not doing testing?  I was tested yesterday for both the active virus and the antibodies, within 3 hours of talking to my primary care physician.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 02:57:19 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 02, 2020, 02:41:14 PM
Yes, by a real company partnering with a real hospital, in Los Angeles.

What's your point?
USA Today Fact check
 (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/05/02/fact-check-covid-19-uv-light-treatment-research-underway-los-angeles/3053177001/)
I just wanted a better source, that's all.  There's one above.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 02, 2020, 02:58:29 PM
You don't think I would check on something that important before posting it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 03:07:00 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 02, 2020, 02:52:46 PM
I don't want political discussion here. Again, we can talk policy (we tried in a thread) but naming politicians to me incites people and sends a thread tumbling.

We need ideas, and we need them fast. If that company and hospital researching the UV light to fight this virus within someone's lungs can actually work, I would call it a miracle. It just so happens that it was brought up in a presser a couple of months ago. If it works, who cares??
If it works, great.  As far as I can tell they are years away from that happening.  They've demonstrated that highly controlled UV-A rays can kill viruses and bacteria while keeping cells alive.  They've done that in a petri dish, apparently.

They essentially want to stick diodes through the nasal cavity and throat and use this technology from the inside out.  But the lungs are very delicate and viruses and bacteria hang out in extremely tiny areas.  Maybe they plan on trying to eradicate the 80% of the virus they can reach, and let the body deal with the last 20%?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 03:07:46 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 02, 2020, 02:58:29 PM
You don't think I would check on something that important before posting it?
Hey, you voted Jonathan Taylor over Saquon Barkley as best back in the B1G.  No way you checked on that.  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 02, 2020, 03:15:39 PM
Either one would be a fine back up  for Zeke
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 03:17:22 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 02, 2020, 03:15:39 PM
Either one would be a fine back up  for Zeke
Who?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 02, 2020, 03:17:31 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 03:07:46 PM
Hey, you voted Jonathan Taylor over Saquon Barkley as best back in the B1G.  No way you checked on that.  :)
Data:


JT (as a true freshman) had way more yards (1977 > 1271), a better YPC (6.6>5.9) and almost twice as many touchdowns (13 > 7).

It was not a hard choice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 02, 2020, 03:22:07 PM
There are companies that sell UV lights to sanitize say truck cabs, car cabs, trains, places like that.  You can't be present when the lights come on, they are intense.  That uses a lot of power, but it works, from what I've read.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 02, 2020, 03:23:14 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 03:17:22 PM
Who?
I knew he ran over PSU didn't know he plowed into you when you were vending 😜
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 02, 2020, 03:24:53 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 02:21:51 PM
UV light is quite effective. 

Alcohol is quite effective.

High Humidity looks to be not great for the survival of the virus on hard surfaces.

High temperatures being 56C or higher... not summer temps.

Scholarly Article (https://www.hindawi.com/journals/av/2011/734690/)
There's a difference between the temperature that completely kills a virus, and temperatures at which a virus is inhibited in its spread.

For example, the flu virus isn't killed by heat until 167 degreesF. 


https://www.cdc.gov/flu/resource-center/images/multi-language-pdfs/contamination_cleaning_english_508.pdf

H (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/resource-center/images/multi-language-pdfs/contamination_cleaning_english_508.pdf)owever, studies have shown that it trasmits much less effectively in high heat and humidity, than it does in cooler temperatures with lower humidity.  The study cited in this article below indicates that the flu virus transmits easily at 41 degreesF and 35% humidity, but almost zero transmission occurs at 68 degreesF and 80% humidity.

http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2014/the-reason-for-the-season-why-flu-strikes-in-winter/
 (http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2014/the-reason-for-the-season-why-flu-strikes-in-winter/)

Now obviously the novel coronavirus isn't the flu virus and it has different properties and behaviors, but the point here is that the high temperature at which a virus is killed, is not necessarily the same as a high temperature at which a virus no longer transmits effectively.

Clearly more study is warranted, and I'm assuming such study is likely underway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 02, 2020, 03:27:09 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 02, 2020, 03:22:07 PM
There are companies that sell UV lights to sanitize say truck cabs, car cabs, trains, places like that.  You can't be present when the lights come on, they are intense.  That uses a lot of power, but it works, from what I've read.


My Sonicaire toothbrush includes a UV light to disinfect the brush head. Maybe I should swallow it and see how that works? :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 03:28:31 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 02, 2020, 02:55:25 PM
Who's not doing testing?  I was tested yesterday for both the active virus and the antibodies, within 3 hours of talking to my primary care physician.


Your 1-person anecdote isn't helpful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 03:29:09 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 02, 2020, 03:27:09 PM
My Sonicaire toothbrush includes a UV light to disinfect the brush head. Maybe I should swallow it and see how that works? :)

Is that worth the cost?  I've always had a $3 toothbrush and it just seems nuts to pay $60.  Do you recommend it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 02, 2020, 03:30:37 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 03:28:31 PM
Your 1-person anecdote isn't helpful.
Sure it is.

If you have evidence of cases to refute my assertion that widespread testing is available, and that anyone that needs a test can get one, then let's see it.

They're not going to test people just because someone wants one.  Nor do I think they should.  If you're exhibiting symptoms, or if you have come into direct contact with a positive test, then you can get tested.

That is my assertion.  Refute it, if you can. *shrug*
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 02, 2020, 03:33:03 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 03:29:09 PM
Is that worth the cost?  I've always had a $3 toothbrush and it just seems nuts to pay $60.  Do you recommend it?
I like it.  I feel like it gets my teeth cleaner.  But I haven't performed any scientific experiments on it to make that determination, it's possible that it's entirely psychological.  

I'd say that if you like your toothbrush and you're happy with its performance and you're getting "good grades" at your regular dental checkups, then there's no reason to change.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 02, 2020, 03:34:21 PM
There are UV lights sold to regular consumers of course, I am hesitant to think they can possibly be intense enough to be effective (short of leaving them on all day).  UV light also destroys living tissue, like retinas, which are important.  To be "safe", these things may be gimmicks that sound good and do little.

The sun of course puts out a torrent of UV, much of which the atmosphere absorbs (which is good).  What's left is enough to turn our skin brown over an hour or so, or red, depending.

The old advertising claim for detergents "whiter than white" was actually true, technically.  They included agents that converted invisible UV light to visible blue light which made white garments look really white.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 03:37:02 PM
They're flash-banging subway cards in NYC with UV lights, while empty, of course.  I'd still try to avoid touching anything with my hands.
An invisible vice combated with invisible defenses.  Fun.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 03:48:43 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 02, 2020, 03:17:31 PM
Data:


JT (as a true freshman) had way more yards (1977 > 1271), a better YPC (6.6>5.9) and almost twice as many touchdowns (13 > 7).

It was not a hard choice.
You're right, it wasn't a hard choice.  Saquon Barkley actually had 23 touchdowns.  (18 rushing, 3 receiving, 2 KO returns).  He also threw for a touchdown.  632 Receiving yards vs 95.  He had over 2,300 all purpose yards.

And, he did it with an offensive line that probably wouldn't have made the UW 2 deep.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 04:05:26 PM
Yep, receiving yards matter.  Wisconsin doesn't seem to care about that, though.  I think Dayne had 1 reception his SR season?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on June 02, 2020, 04:10:18 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 01:29:26 PM
I do not think that is true.  I couldn't find a single expert corroborating this despite spending an entire 5 minutes on the Google.

There was a lot of talk about social distancing ending in the summer, and I think that message may have been misunderstood.

Well, the company I work for is in the medical industry.  The health systems we support clearly felt the number would decline this summer and increase in the fall.    When I was in Florida on spring break as NY was becoming overwhelmed, I recall sitting in the hotel listening to discussions about how the summer would help.  If it wasn't explicitly stated, it certainly was inferred that this would behave like the flu.   And if that was the thought pattern at that time, then it would make sense the underlying belief was warmer temps would inhibit the spread.

we know now this is very different than the flu

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 02, 2020, 04:10:32 PM
I misread the TD line - I looked at his freshman year.

Anyway, the vote was for running back - not receiver. I voted for the best running back.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 02, 2020, 04:14:11 PM
People were guessing at seasonality based on influenza experiences, but any scientists would have been putting a heavy caveat on such speculation.  We simply don't know.  

I was telling the wife today that I THINK that if this does snap back, we're going to have to roll with it.  Wear masks, wash hands, avoid crowds to the extent possible, and isolate the elderly, and hope for early herd immunity.

She was opining that IF these protests don't result in a detectable upsurge, IF, then perhaps it has run its course.

The wheels have not fallen off in Sweden.  The situation there isn't great obviously relative to neighbors, but neither is it catastrophic.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on June 02, 2020, 04:17:27 PM
I'm hoping we find out that we can maintain a level of infections that do not overwhelm health systems so we can avoid quarantines.   I'm not sure the economy and segments of our society will be able to manage another round.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 04:20:53 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 02, 2020, 04:10:32 PM
I misread the TD line - I looked at his freshman year.

Anyway, the vote was for running back - not receiver. I voted for the best running back.
Receiving is really important for running backs these days.  Especially when the offensive line play is...offensive.

I remember this amazing catch Barkley had in the B1G championship game, for example.  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 04:24:01 PM
If you want your RB to catch passes, he needs to be able to.  If you're UW and don't ask them to, whether they can or not is irrelevant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 02, 2020, 04:26:34 PM
Quote from: Entropy on June 02, 2020, 04:17:27 PM
I'm hoping we find out that we can maintain a level of infections that do not overwhelm health systems so we can avoid quarantines.  I'm not sure the economy and segments of our society will be able to manage another round.
This was the great fear in mid-March.  We appear to have avoided that collapse.  From here on, it's going to have to play out I think while we do what we can to minimize R naught.  Face masks work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 02, 2020, 04:27:31 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 02, 2020, 04:14:11 PM
The wheels have not fallen off in Sweden.  The situation there isn't great obviously relative to neighbors, but neither is it catastrophic.
The big issue is what happens to the rest of Europe as they come off lockdown. 

Because when you look at the numbers, Europe death rates have come down to tiny levels, while Sweden is stable but not declining at all. 

But we don't know the exit strategy for the rest of Europe. If they have the new infections controlled well enough that they can manage it with testing and contact tracing, the deaths stay low, and they don't have a rebound, then their strategy was probably better.

If each European nation with low death numbers now see spikes every time they start to reopen, leading to a constant yo-yo of lockdown/reopening, then it's likely that Sweden's strategy of just trying to manage the slow burn is better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on June 02, 2020, 04:28:15 PM
I believe face masks work... doctors I know believe it.   Wish people would treat it as a temporary annoyance and allow for society to return to a more normal state.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 02, 2020, 04:37:52 PM
Strong evidence for face masks can be seen in the experience in Asia where it is a common practice when in public and rates of COVID are remarkably low, South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 02, 2020, 04:51:30 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 02, 2020, 04:14:11 PM
People were guessing at seasonality based on influenza experiences, but any scientists would have been putting a heavy caveat on such speculation.  We simply don't know. 

I was telling the wife today that I THINK that if this does snap back, we're going to have to roll with it.  Wear masks, wash hands, avoid crowds to the extent possible, and isolate the elderly, and hope for early herd immunity.

She was opining that IF these protests don't result in a detectable upsurge, IF, then perhaps it has run its course.

The wheels have not fallen off in Sweden.  The situation there isn't great obviously relative to neighbors, but neither is it catastrophic.
Well, Sweden has 10 times the death rate of Norway.
OTOH, I saw that the prime minister (?) of Norway is now saying that they should have followed Sweden's example.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 02, 2020, 04:56:40 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 02, 2020, 03:33:03 PM
I like it.  I feel like it gets my teeth cleaner.  But I haven't performed any scientific experiments on it to make that determination, it's possible that it's entirely psychological. 

I'd say that if you like your toothbrush and you're happy with its performance and you're getting "good grades" at your regular dental checkups, then there's no reason to change.
I've spent nearly my whole life using a brush.  But about a year ago my wife convinced me to go to an electric, an Oral-B.  I would not want to go back.  Oral-Bs are only in the $30 range, but the replacement brushes are expensive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2020, 05:12:58 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on June 02, 2020, 04:56:40 PM
I've spent nearly my whole life using a brush.  But about a year ago my wife convinced me to go to an electric, an Oral-B.  I would not want to go back.  Oral-Bs are only in the $30 range, but the replacement brushes are expensive.
I might have to try it.  
I've been lucky, dentally.  Plaque builds up quickly, but I've never had a cavity.  The electric spinning brush may help keep the plaque at bay.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 02, 2020, 05:35:39 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 02, 2020, 04:51:30 PM
Well, Sweden has 10 times the death rate of Norway.
OTOH, I saw that the prime minister (?) of Norway is now saying that they should have followed Sweden's example.
Yeah, and at what cost is one question, and what happens now is another question.  As noted, in a year, it might be everyone has the same death rate as Sweden's more or less.  The idea was to prevent hospitals from being overrun.  That was the fear, the reason for the shutdowns.

Sweden has not experienced that.  As yet.  I have a friend in Sweden who tells me they are individually taking precautions, it's just not government mandated.  We could all be running their experiment in a couple of months, and I suspect we will.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 02, 2020, 05:47:19 PM
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/transmission/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/transmission/)

A useful summary of what "we" think we know.  Humidity is discussed as a potential factor.

Experiments conducted in a study indicated "a striking correlation of the stability of winter viruses at low RH (20–50%), while the stability of summer or all-year viruses enhanced at higher RH (80%)"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 02, 2020, 06:02:15 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 02, 2020, 05:35:39 PM
Yeah, and at what cost is one question, and what happens now is another question.  As noted, in a year, it might be everyone has the same death rate as Sweden's more or less.  The idea was to prevent hospitals from being overrun.  That was the fear, the reason for the shutdowns.

Sweden has not experienced that.  As yet.  I have a friend in Sweden who tells me they are individually taking precautions, it's just not government mandated.  We could all be running their experiment in a couple of months, and I suspect we will.


Yes, I think that the places that have shut-down, have only stretched out the curve to the right along the t axis.  I don't think there's going to end up being much change to the total area under the curve.

EXCEPT-- I do think it bought our docs and scientists some time to develop better treatments, even outside of any potential drugs or cocktails, and that has most likely improved outcomes and resulted in at least some fewer deaths.  I don't think it's likely to be statistically significant, but the people who have battled through the worst of the symptoms and survived, probably feel it was worth the effort.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 02, 2020, 07:11:38 PM
Again, *IF* the other Euro nations that have brought down their death rates to very low levels can open up and KEEP their death rates at those levels through testing and contact tracing, then their approach is IMHO superior to Sweden. *IF* they need to basically maintain almost the same levels of lockdown to keep those rates low, then their approach is inferior to Sweden. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 02, 2020, 07:41:08 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 02, 2020, 07:11:38 PM
Again, *IF* the other Euro nations that have brought down their death rates to very low levels can open up and KEEP their death rates at those levels through testing and contact tracing, then their approach is IMHO superior to Sweden. *IF* they need to basically maintain almost the same levels of lockdown to keep those rates low, then their approach is inferior to Sweden.



Agree.  But that is a lot of IFs there.  Time will tell.

My opinion only, is that this is just so infectious, so transmittable, that it's going to penetrate the global populations regardless.  In free Western cultures, I don't see us ever being able to lock down tight enough to eradicate it.  Which means it's going to linger and at best slow-burn here, and eventually re-penetrate once again into the more authoritarian cultures that might have had a chance to eradicate it on their own, when they ultimately have to reopen to the West, which they must, or suffer the economic consequences.

Once this thing escaped China to the West, it was done. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 07:57:44 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 02, 2020, 07:41:08 PM
Agree.  But that is a lot of IFs there.  Time will tell.

My opinion only, is that this is just so infectious, so transmittable, that it's going to penetrate the global populations regardless.  In free Western cultures, I don't see us ever being able to lock down tight enough to eradicate it.  Which means it's going to linger and at best slow-burn here, and eventually re-penetrate once again into the more authoritarian cultures that might have had a chance to eradicate it on their own, when they ultimately have to reopen to the West, which they must, or suffer the economic consequences.

Once this thing escaped China to the West, it was done. 
In all honesty, we are *REALLY* close to eliminating the virus through social distancing in the NE.  It would probably take another 4-6 weeks of quarantine, though.

Problem is -- one newly infected guy from Texico comes up it would just come back.   So we'd have done the sacrifice without receiving the benefit.

Speaking of which -- Texas going for their all time high today I see.

IL, CA, AZ suck today, too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 02, 2020, 09:12:37 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 07:57:44 PM
In all honesty, we are *REALLY* close to eliminating the virus through social distancing in the NE.  It would probably take another 4-6 weeks of quarantine, though.

Problem is -- one newly infected guy from Texico comes up it would just come back.  So we'd have done the sacrifice without receiving the benefit.

Speaking of which -- Texas going for their all time high today I see.

IL, CA, AZ suck today, too.
Lulz.  You're celebrating getting below 10% positive, Texas has been there since mid April.  But...

Dream on, dream on, dream on, dream until your dreams come true.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 02, 2020, 09:12:48 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 07:57:44 PM
In all honesty, we are *REALLY* close to eliminating the virus through social distancing in the NE.  It would probably take another 4-6 weeks of quarantine, though.

Problem is -- one newly infected guy from Texico comes up it would just come back.  So we'd have done the sacrifice without receiving the benefit.

Speaking of which -- Texas going for their all time high today I see.

IL, CA, AZ suck today, too.
You do understand that Texas has 29,000,000 people right?

Even with that there are only 10 states with a lower death to 1M pop ratio

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 11:16:18 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 02, 2020, 09:12:48 PM
You do understand that Texas has 29,000,000 people right?

Even with that there are only 10 states with a lower death to 1M pop ratio


I’m looking at the growth rate. I believe Texas will pass PA for active cases tomorrow.  if they continue this upward trend, they will double PA active cases in another week or ten days. 

Texas is the only state that has “opened up” with numbers trending high enough to be truly concerning. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 03, 2020, 12:07:54 AM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 11:16:18 PM
I’m looking at the growth rate. I believe Texas will pass PA for active cases tomorrow.  if they continue this upward trend, they will double PA active cases in another week or ten days.

Texas is the only state that has “opened up” with numbers trending high enough to be truly concerning.
PA has 14,000,000 people vs Texas 29,000,000

There are only 12 states with a lower cases per 1M pop then Texas

Penn has almost 3 times as many cases per 1M pop as Texas

We have increased out testing and have twice as many tests then PA

you need to worry about stuff that is much more important then how Texas is doing cause Texas is doing just fine

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 03, 2020, 12:16:53 AM
What an odd idea.  Why are you acting like the state of Texas is your child?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 03, 2020, 12:28:07 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 03, 2020, 12:16:53 AM
What an odd idea.  Why are you acting like the state of Texas is your child? 
Texas is my home and I just like talking about it

Thats kinda what we Texans do best
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 03, 2020, 12:54:55 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 03, 2020, 12:28:07 AM
Texas is my home and I just like talking about it

Thats kinda what we Texans do best
Don't give any secrets away, 320.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 03, 2020, 07:41:01 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 03, 2020, 12:07:54 AM
There are only 12 states with a lower cases per 1M pop then Texas

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109004/coronavirus-covid19-cases-rate-us-americans-by-state/

 (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109004/coronavirus-covid19-cases-rate-us-americans-by-state/)  If accurate Texas is doing pretty good when factoring in it's population prolly surpasses all those combined in front of it on the list

  The lowest % seem to be the sparsest populated with the exception of Missouri
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2020, 08:05:37 AM
Quote from: utee94 on June 02, 2020, 07:41:08 PM
Once China knowingly sent this thing to the West by continuing to allow foreign travel, while not allowing travel within its own borders, it was done. 
Fixed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 03, 2020, 08:09:57 AM
Jobs should be brought back but greedy CEO's couldn't stand the idea of getting by on maybe 20 million instead of 25 .Time to tax them as an import.They got rich on the American market and China is doing no one favors
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 08:19:14 AM
Consumers faced with purchase decisions often choose the cheaper product regardless of where it was made.  I recall some clothing outfit that advertised Made in America, but the stuff cost 20% more, and they didn't make it.

It's more a result of "greedy consumers" really.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2020, 08:32:55 AM
If the option is eliminated, the problem would be solved.


Who, besides Jim Harbaugh, really needs 15 pair of Wal-Mart khakis anyway? Buy 4 pair of Dockers and call it good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 08:43:27 AM
I see a lot of clothing now is from Thailand or the DR or even Haiti.  It will seeks the lowest price within some set of quality standards.

It would however be interesting to shut down all trade with China.  A lot of US companies that operate in China would of course get hurt.  GM sells more vehicles there than in the US, and Apple does a large business, etc.

I suspect what would happen is China would send "parts" to Thailand et al. and the item would be marked as "Made in Not China".

At least the climate change people can point to China as a role model ......... or not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2020, 09:01:34 AM
Ending trade with China would hurt them more than it would hurt us.

I was in Palm Beach over the weekend, visiting with my buddy who used to design-build sterile factories. He has no less than 27 opportunities to un-retire, RIGHT NOW, and he's only one of about 15-20 guys who are experts at this stuff.

The movement is real. It's happening.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 03, 2020, 09:22:30 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 08:19:14 AM
Consumers faced with purchase decisions often choose the cheaper product regardless of where it was made.  I recall some clothing outfit that advertised Made in America, but the stuff cost 20% more, and they didn't make it.

It's more a result of "greedy consumers" really.
I see this argument peddled all the time, but it isn’t exactly true. Wages have been stagnant for 40+ years. And it’s by design of the system. The average American hasn’t seen real wage growth in 40+ years.

They can only buy what they can afford. If they are only making jackshit they can only spend jackshit. Also- Americans are brand name whores. As long as something is a hot brand name- Americans will still buy them in record numbers, even if they can’t really afford it.

Funny how Apple, Yeezys, and Jordan’s were all made in China and still sell at RIDICULOUS prices- but because they have the brand name- even Americans who really can’t afford them buy them anyway. CREDIT CARDS AND FINANCING, BABY!

Actually have to give a bit of credit to Kanye West- who has been calling for manufacturing to move to the US for years now. He gets it because he’s from an area of the US that was devastated by the hollowing out of American manufacturing. He’s seen first hand what neighborhoods in the inner-cities of the rust belt have turned into. He took his Yeezy brand away from Nike, struck a deal with adidas- told them he would own 100% of the IP, put pressure on them to make some of the shoes here in America and employ Americans- and he’s announced plans to make all of his Yeezy products in American within 2 years. And when he left Nike he was tens of millions in debt- and now he’s been officially declared a billionaire by Forbes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 03, 2020, 09:26:43 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2020, 09:01:34 AM
Ending trade with China would hurt them more than it would hurt us.
This is so clearly obvious, and anyone who can’t see this is just arguing to keep the status quo in place because it benefits them. 

China was a 3rd world backwater shithole before US multinationals turned it into a power. If it wasn’t for us they would be nothing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 03, 2020, 09:27:00 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2020, 09:01:34 AM
Ending trade with China would hurt them more than it would hurt us.

I was in Palm Beach over the weekend, visiting with my buddy who used to design-build sterile factories. He has no less than 27 opportunities to un-retire, RIGHT NOW, and he's only one of about 15-20 guys who are experts at this stuff.

The movement is real. It's happening.
Isn’t that drive thru the middle of the state “interesting”?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 03, 2020, 09:28:38 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2020, 08:32:55 AM
If the option is eliminated, the problem would be solved.
I sure do love it when "Ban whatever I don't like" is the solution... 

Planning to go into Illinois politics, Badge? You might fit in down there in Springfield...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 09:32:51 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/cfg1XNf.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 09:33:25 AM
That chart is perhaps the most important economic metric we have in terms of "how we feel about things".

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 03, 2020, 09:35:42 AM
Apple has been in the process of moving some of its manufacturing back to the USA for about a decade now.  They have a plant in Austin the produces Macs, and are expanding their facilities here with another new plant scheduled to open in the next year or two.  I suspect several similar companies, including my own, to follow in the near future.

Still, a ton of the subtier components are manufactured in China.  Shifting that production elsewhere is actually a much more difficult challenge.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 09:37:16 AM
Apple sells a lot in China, that was my only point.  Some other US companies do as well.  It will be interesting to see how we (and others) respond.  The EU nations usually are willing to deal with anyone if there is a buck to be made.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 03, 2020, 09:42:12 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 09:37:16 AM
Apple sells a lot in China, that was my only point.  Some other US companies do as well.  It will be interesting to see how we (and others) respond.  The EU nations usually are willing to deal with anyone if there is a buck to be made.
A lot is relative to what. Apple does about 4x the sales in the US and 2x the sales in EU as they do in China.

If lawmakers cracked down and got tough (a pure fantasy- it’d never happen the lawmakers are controlled by big business here) which markets do you think Apple would scramble to protect? Hint: not the one that does 4x less business than US market or 2x less than EU market.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 09:48:32 AM
A quarter of the sales in the US is billions obviously.  It's not some insignificant figure for Apple.

I'm not saying what we should or should not do, only that closing off China WOULD hurt some US companies.  Whether it is worth that pain is another discussion.  This is not entirely a one way street.

But, it's moot anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 03, 2020, 09:51:04 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 09:33:25 AM
That chart is perhaps the most important economic metric we have in terms of "how we feel about things".
This chart isn’t exactly showing the entire picture. Married women never worked in the 40s, 50s, 60s, and hardly in the 70s and 80s. Both husband and wife have to now just to make ends meat. And it says nothing about adjusting for rising costs of living. Cars are way more expensive, as is housing, insurance, everything today. The increases in wage haven’t caught up with increase in costs of living. Americans are in debt up to their eyeballs now just to maintain a standard of living that their parents and grandparents could without taking on a fraction of the debt Americans today do.

I like this chart better:

(https://i.imgur.com/QjROwaM.png)

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most-us-workers-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/

https://www.businessnewsdaily.com/11273-real-wages-flat-impact.html


We’re on 40+ years of stagnant wages. And it’s been by design. #FinancializatonOfTheEconomy. #Globalization.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 03, 2020, 09:59:28 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 09:48:32 AM
A quarter of the sales in the US is billions obviously.  It's not some insignificant figure for Apple.

I'm not saying what we should or should not do, only that closing off China WOULD hurt some US companies.  Whether it is worth that pain is another discussion.  This is not entirely a one way street.

But, it's moot anyway.
the tariffs on soybeans hurt the american farmer.  That seemed to be worth the pain.

maybe the farmer's soybean lobby isn't strong enough
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 10:01:43 AM
The soy bean farmers were at times "paid" with money from the tariffs (which were on some Chinese goods entering the US).  These trade deals are far too complex for me to assess them.

We have a global economy like it or not, it's fixed in place.  I don't think it will change more than around the edges in reality.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 03, 2020, 10:07:47 AM
this is what I told my neighbors that produce soybeans...... it's global

if the Chinese aren't buying american beans because of tariffs, they are buying them from south america or somewhere else in the world

the folks that were buying those beans from south america will now buy from north america

there are only so many soybeans produced on the planet
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2020, 10:08:24 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 03, 2020, 09:28:38 AM
I sure do love it when "Ban whatever I don't like" is the solution...

Planning to go into Illinois politics, Badge? You might fit in down there in Springfield...
Thanks for the insult, I guess?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 03, 2020, 10:08:29 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2020, 08:32:55 AM
If the option is eliminated, the problem would be solved.


Who, besides Jim Harbaugh, really needs 15 pair of Wal-Mart khakis anyway? Buy 4 pair of Dockers and call it good.
so, where are Dockers made?  Not in the US
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2020, 10:17:25 AM
Probably everywhere. Who knows. Bring it all back here, from wherever. I know they have many factories here though. Levi Strauss is world-wide.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2020, 10:18:18 AM
The point of eliminating China is to reduce their ability to become the world bank, by the way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 10:23:15 AM
My impression is that China "plays the long game".  It's not long for them to plan for a century.  The US has trouble planning next year's budget.  Frankly, I don't see much hope for the US longer term.  We can rearrange deck chairs a bit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 03, 2020, 10:25:05 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2020, 10:17:25 AM
Probably everywhere. Who knows. Bring it all back here, from wherever. I know they have many factories here though. Levi Strauss is world-wide.
the fount of all knowledge says LEVI closed their last US factory in San Antonio in 2002
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2020, 10:26:23 AM
Where are Levi's made?

(http://javascript:void(0))(https://www.bing.com/th?id=OIP.PWfHnj0fFD7g6ScNmMxVWwHaHa&w=140&h=140&rs=1&qlt=80&dpr=1.25&pid=3.1)

As of 2019, the vast majority of Levi's are made overseas in a number of developing countries, such as India, Sri Lanka, Vietnam, and Indonesia, due to the availability of cheap, easy labor and raw materials. Some styles in the "Levi's Premium" and "Levi's Vintage Clothing" lines are, however, made in the United States. Nov 26 2019
ISIN: US52736R1023 (https://tools.wmflabs.org/isin/?language=en&isin=US52736R1023)
Founded: May 1, 1853; 166 years ago (as David Stern & Levi Strauss)
Industry: Clothing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 03, 2020, 10:42:21 AM
better than China
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 03, 2020, 10:48:59 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 10:23:15 AM
My impression is that China "plays the long game".  It's not long for them to plan for a century.  The US has trouble planning next year's budget.  Frankly, I don't see much hope for the US longer term.  We can rearrange deck chairs a bit.
This is 100% fact. 

China plans for the next 100 years. 

America used to be a nation like that. The financial sector used to only be a fraction of total corporate profits- barely even 10%. By 2008, right before the crash due to the extreme financialization of the economy- the financial sector was something like 47% of all corporate profits. 

Wall Street has captured this entire country, from its political elite to it’s manufacturing, and devoured it. They have put pressure on its leaders to sell out its future for showing growth on paper QTR to QTR. That’s all the matters- the here and now- not the long game. 


That’s why US multinationals have started JV’s with Chinese communist back entities, handed over trade secrets and transferred tech to these Chinese firms willingly- just so they can grow NOW. What happens when their non-competes run up? Chinese companies are going to drive many of them right out of business or buy them up.

Sell out the future for a quick buck today. China doesn’t do that. We do. Time to change it up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 03, 2020, 10:50:03 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2020, 10:08:24 AM
Thanks for the insult, I guess?
I just get incensed when the answer is "I don't like what people are freely choosing in commerce, so let's take that option away because I don't think they should have it."

If we don't like China out-competing us, maybe we should get a little better at competing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 10:59:46 AM
China has significant advantages we don't want to emulate here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 03, 2020, 11:03:54 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 03, 2020, 10:50:03 AM
I just get incensed when the answer is "I don't like what people are freely choosing in commerce, so let's take that option away because I don't think they should have it."

If we don't like China out-competing us, maybe we should get a little better at competing.
This is naive and wrong thinking. The playing fields are not on the level. Not by a long shot.

That’s like saying if you’re an athlete and you don’t like athletes using steroids to gain competitive advantage maybe you should just get better at competing. Makes no sense.

And no one is freely choosing anything in commerce. There is no such thing as the free market. Some form or fashion of state intervention is in every system in the world, even the US.

And free trade agreements aren’t really trade agreements, they are investors right agreements.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 03, 2020, 11:18:18 AM
(https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2017/08/Labor-Force-Participation-of-women-in-the-US-1955-2005-750x415.png)

Note that the baseline for the vertical scale is not zero.  Whether more married women are working now because they have to do so to keep up with the Joneses, or whether wages are relatively stagnant because there are more women (along with more low-wage immigrants) in the workforce--it would be nice to know the answer to that.

Big Labor--ostensibly looking out for the interests of its members--basically supports unlimited immigration.  So do both political parties in reality, although one of them claims otherwise.

I suspect our inability unwillingness refusal to reduce our national debt is a bigger long-term problem for us than whether or not--or how much--we trade with China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 03, 2020, 11:25:55 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 03, 2020, 11:18:18 AM
I suspect our inability unwillingness refusal to reduce our national debt is a bigger long-term problem for us than whether or not--or how much--we trade with China.
We need to stop looking at the national debt as equivalent to a household debt or business debt. It's not.

When you have the ability to create money out of thin air, dictate interest rates, and raise money through taxing generation after generation- well it's not really the same thing as a debt from me to you or a business to another business. Completely different thing.

China is by the far bigger threat. If we continue to just let them rip off IP, force transfers of tech, hollow out our manufacturing sector, control our supply chain from everything to electronics to medicines, and pass us by on the world stage- they will.

This was a country that was basically a 3rd world backwater literally 25 years ago. Thanks to Bill Clinton and other neo-lib and neo-con politicians and their stupid policies and to Wall Street- that backwater has become the second richest, second most powerful country on earth. In less than a QTR century. It's frigthening.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2020, 11:27:32 AM
Let's hold off on the names of the politicians please.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 11:29:02 AM
I see little realistic chance China doesn't "win", short of some internal revolution there.  They see to it that the average Joe sees his life gets a little better each year, it's not hard to do.  They remain quiescent, and the "central committee" controls the economy.  It's efficient so long as they don't make obvious mistakes or need to appease the masses as they do in say France.

Macron can't do much because the unions will shut the country down.  That doesn't happen in China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2020, 11:30:25 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 11:29:02 AM
I see little realistic chance China doesn't "win", short of some internal revolution there.  They see to it that the average Joe sees his life gets a little better each year, it's not hard to do.  They remain quiescent, and the "central committee" controls the economy.  It's efficient so long as they don't make obvious mistakes or need to appease the masses as they do in say France.

Macron can't do much because the unions will shut the country down.  That doesn't happen in China.
This is a whole new thread, but it would probably spiral in a hurry, so let's not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 03, 2020, 11:33:50 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 03, 2020, 11:03:54 AM
This is naive and wrong thinking. The playing fields are not on the level. Not by a long shot.

That’s like saying if you’re an athlete and you don’t like athletes using steroids to gain competitive advantage maybe you should just get better at competing. Makes no sense.
True, the fields aren't level. That doesn't change the fact that Americans are soft. 

The more apt analogy for us would be an athlete who really didn't put in the work, and really didn't devote their entire self to their craft, and really wasn't all that good, complaining that the athlete who did all those things PLUS took steroids beat them out because of the steroids.

We're worried about technology transfer to China, but nowhere near enough Americans are going into STEM careers to create new technology worth stealing from us. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 03, 2020, 11:33:57 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2020, 11:27:32 AM
Let's hold off on the names of the politicians please.
I don't see how that's controversial at all. Which President permanently normalized trade relations with China and pushed them into the WTO? Bill Clinton. He's hardly the only to blame, it was both parties and many many many politicians that went along with this and many other disastrous trade policies that severely hurt the average American worker but helped US multi-nationals immensely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 03, 2020, 11:37:17 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 11:29:02 AM
I see little realistic chance China doesn't "win", short of some internal revolution there.  They see to it that the average Joe sees his life gets a little better each year, it's not hard to do.  They remain quiescent, and the "central committee" controls the economy.  It's efficient so long as they don't make obvious mistakes or need to appease the masses as they do in say France.

Macron can't do much because the unions will shut the country down.  That doesn't happen in China.
China has an innovation problem. I think as long as they are told what to think, and told what to say, and only allowed to operate within a box that the government limits them too- they will never truly innovate. China isn't creating new and great technologies. They are ripping them off from US and EU companies.

Innovation is what has kept America at the forefront of the world. As long as America can keep innovating, they will stay there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 03, 2020, 11:43:03 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 03, 2020, 11:33:50 AM
True, the fields aren't level. That doesn't change the fact that Americans are soft.

The more apt analogy for us would be an athlete who really didn't put in the work, and really didn't devote their entire self to their craft, and really wasn't all that good, complaining that the athlete who did all those things PLUS took steroids beat them out because of the steroids.

We're worried about technology transfer to China, but nowhere near enough Americans are going into STEM careers to create new technology worth stealing from us.
Again, this isn't exactly true.

Chinese firms are able to do business in the US openly and freely. Chinese firms are allowed access to get listed on our stock exchanges. Take Luckin Coffee for example- a company that has literally never done a shred of business in the US- they haven't ever given away a cup of water in the US let alone sold a cup of coffee here- yet they are listed on the NASDAQ. Can US companies do business openly and freely in China? Hell no. Can US companies get listed on Chinese stock exchanges? Hell no. Chinese investors are able to easily and freely invest in the US. Are US investors allowed openly, freely, and easily into China? Hell no.

Do Chinese businesses in China have to pay their labor what US companies have to in the US? Do Chinese businesses have to deal with costly environmental, work-safety, litany of insurances, and state/local/fed regulations in China that US companies have to deal with in the US? No.

It's not an apples to apples comparison at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2020, 12:40:36 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 03, 2020, 11:33:50 AM

We're worried about technology transfer to China, but nowhere near enough Americans are going into STEM careers to create new technology worth stealing from us.
I may have mentioned this, but STEM back in my Illinois area is now referred to as STEAM.

The "A" is for arts.

One of those is NOT like the other, but the arts faculty felt inferior and demanded they be included.

I shit you not. And it's bulljive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 03, 2020, 02:23:52 PM
hah, the arts faculty wanted their participation medal!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 03, 2020, 02:41:03 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/cxsOYfz.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 03, 2020, 02:57:31 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2020, 12:40:36 PM
I may have mentioned this, but STEM back in my Illinois area is now referred to as STEAM.

The "A" is for arts.

One of those is NOT like the other, but the arts faculty felt inferior and demanded they be included.

I shit you not. And it's bulljive.
They've done that here as well.

I'm a huge fan of the arts, in high school I was in band, orchestra, choir, and drama.  Those are all important.

But they're not the same as STEM.  There's a specific reason for focusing on STEM, as bwar alluded to earlier.  Including the arts in that acronym dilutes the message and blurs the focus.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 02:58:35 PM
https://www.livescience.com/face-masks-eye-protection-covid-19-prevention.html?utm_source=Selligent&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=18755&utm_content=20200602Coronavirus_Infographic%20&utm_term=3549350&m_i=Tknmm9R2PBCVi%2BBbO76pU4bVPtWCphb8n7phCR2dykuCoaWFDS5Xp_1VdNyRHognwNVAM3NtFWvgLzDnJzeNR35vHyJyR9&fbclid=IwAR1MYVRPNEnNTYm43E8i7joyhNv1XTbk8uqrsSX5edbSsqNsfrT2FPE3phA (https://www.livescience.com/face-masks-eye-protection-covid-19-prevention.html?utm_source=Selligent&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=18755&utm_content=20200602Coronavirus_Infographic)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 03:01:19 PM
Given that STEM is just a convenient acronym, does making it STEAM change anything in reality?

You still get a degree in whatever.  I think my college diploma just says Bachelor of Science.  My other diploma says "Philosophy".

I'm a philosopher apparently.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 03, 2020, 03:12:26 PM
COVID19 swab test came back negative.

I should have the antibody results within the next couple of days



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 03:17:39 PM
Do they email you the results?  I guess it's either one or the other, no maybe?

It would be nice to see a wide scale AB test result for say 10,000 people randomly chosen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 03, 2020, 03:30:59 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 03:17:39 PM
Do they email you the results?  I guess it's either one or the other, no maybe?

It would be nice to see a wide scale AB test result for say 10,000 people randomly chosen.
They put the results in the patient portal which is secured by standard login with username and password.  They tend to not email sensitive medical test results, as email is not secure.

And for the swab test they state that a positive is pretty much a guaranteed positive, but a negative is not a guarantee and that you should continue to self-quarantine for a full 2 weeks past initial exposure, or for 3 days beyond symptoms, whichever comes last.

Since I never had any symptoms and we're beyond 2 weeks past my exposure, I guess I'm free to move about the cabin.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2020, 03:45:16 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 03:01:19 PM
Given that STEM is just a convenient acronym, does making it STEAM change anything in reality?

You still get a degree in whatever.  I think my college diploma just says Bachelor of Science.  My other diploma says "Philosophy".

I'm a philosopher apparently.


It's always kinda bugged my, the whole Ph.D. thing.

I worked for a guy who had a Ph.D. in Civil Engineering. I know have one in Chemistry. You deserve to be referred to as Doctor CDawg. In fact, I might start calling you that around here.

I see people running around proudly proclaiming themselves "Doctors", with a Ph.D. in Art History or some such.

They are not equal. Not by any stretch.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2020, 03:46:42 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 03, 2020, 03:30:59 PM
They put the results in the patient portal which is secured by standard login with username and password.  They tend to not email sensitive medical test results, as email is not secure.

And for the swab test they state that a positive is pretty much a guaranteed positive, but a negative is not a guarantee and that you should continue to self-quarantine for a full 2 weeks past initial exposure, or for 3 days beyond symptoms, whichever comes last.

Since I never had any symptoms and we're beyond 2 weeks past my exposure, I guess I'm free to move about the cabin.
Congrats. I'd still sit tight until you can buy an "I HAVE THE ANTIBODY" T-shirt though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 03:49:26 PM
I was never called Dr. at work except in jest.  One place I worked had about 1600 employees and 500 were PhDs.  My nickname - by which I am still referred at times by friends - was Dr. Doom.  I was known for killing projects.  A lot of folks for some reason felt it was their duty to drag something out long after it was clear it made no sense.

One buddy of mine at work had a PhD in Chem Eng from Columbia.  He was older and very smart, and very unmotivated.  I never understood why he didn't work harder until a few more years passed.  He would do a great job if I could get him interested in some challenge.

He actually was demoted, something very rare at work.  He didn't care.  He retired and became a travel agent, I used him a few times when that was a thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2020, 04:06:48 PM
So it's been said, and so it is done.

Dr. Doom it is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 03, 2020, 04:40:35 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2020, 03:46:42 PM
Congrats. I'd still sit tight until you can buy an "I HAVE THE ANTIBODY" T-shirt though.
Yeah I think it would be pretty kickass for the antibody test to come back positive.  I'd definitely buy the t-shirt. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 03, 2020, 04:42:17 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 03:49:26 PM
I was never called Dr. at work except in jest.  One place I worked had about 1600 employees and 500 were PhDs.  My nickname - by which I am still referred at times by friends - was Dr. Doom.  I was known for killing projects.  A lot of folks for some reason felt it was their duty to drag something out long after it was clear it made no sense.

One buddy of mine at work had a PhD in Chem Eng from Columbia.  He was older and very smart, and very unmotivated.  I never understood why he didn't work harder until a few more years passed.  He would do a great job if I could get him interested in some challenge.

He actually was demoted, something very rare at work.  He didn't care.  He retired and became a travel agent, I used him a few times when that was a thing.

I think we've talked about, how in France and Germany and Italy, they have a specific respect for engineers.  When I was living and working in those countries, they'd call me Dr. utee94 even though I only had a bachelor's in engineering (BSEE).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 03, 2020, 04:43:09 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 03, 2020, 02:57:31 PM
They've done that here as well.

I'm a huge fan of the arts, in high school I was in band, orchestra, choir, and drama.  Those are all important.

But they're not the same as STEM.  There's a specific reason for focusing on STEM, as bwar alluded to earlier.  Including the arts in that acronym dilutes the message and blurs the focus.
I'm a fan of the arts too, and I agree that the "A" doesn't belong with STEM.  Might as well make it STEAMESS, to get English and Social Studies in there too.

Then you can add Gym class and just make it SCHOOL!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 03, 2020, 04:50:06 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 03, 2020, 04:43:09 PM
I'm a fan of the arts too, and I agree that the "A" doesn't belong with STEM.  Might as well make it STEAMESS, to get English and Social Studies in there too.

Then you can add Gym class and just make it SCHOOL!
Ha!  Indeed.

I think Dr. Doom doesn't see the labels as important, and he might be right.  Personally I think the label is important, because I think encouraging people into STEM is important to our nation's future, both from the perspective of the economy, and from the perspective of national security.  In some cases, as we're finding out right now, those actually overlap pretty heavily.

And I think that turning STEM into STEAM (or STEAMLESS), undermines the purpose of labeling it STEM to begin with.  That was a specific movement with a specific purpose and a specific goal.

The arts can have advocates, too.  I am one of them.  I probably give more money to the arts, than I do to the sciences.  But I don't think those two messages should be combined.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2020, 05:00:32 PM
Correctamundo.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 05:04:05 PM
I just wondered why it matters.  When I was in school the term STEM was never used that I ever heard.  I don't think it's some technical term or official term today that means anything.  They could include political science as being a science and it doesn't really change anything of substance.  They can call me a philosopher and it doesn't matter either.

I think it's a useful term, actually, when used descriptively, but I'd be surprised if it has some official standing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2020, 05:10:03 PM
It's an acronym for a movement to get kids into good careers, in areas where the country needs them badly.

I've said it before, and it still stands. I can't find engineers. Who the hell is going to fall in line behind guys/gals when they hang it up? I'm dead serious. Thankfully, there are two guys who are junior partners to replace the two founders (me and another guy), but they will need to replace themselves. 

They're not out there, and any candidate certainly would not fall into this stupid ass "A" category. 

Not a chance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 05:22:42 PM
I doubt an Art Major would apply for an engineering job, nor would a chemistry major.  I doubt employment ads go out using STEM as a requirement for the major.  I'd guess they are more specific than that, I need a BS in chemistry for this job.  

Maybe I'm wrong.  That's fine.  They could make it STEAM or whatever and I'm not going to look at a resume from an Art major who claims it's a STEAM degree.

I would get some weird resumes when we advertised for jobs at times.  Usually recruiting would ferret them out for us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 03, 2020, 05:24:24 PM

(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2912%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F3b9784b8-482b-4fc9-85c9-2417d89407e7_1600x540.png&t=1591195032&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1cd7-450001017d00&sig=.L4mwD7Bdpw5CBDb_LF0PQ--~C) (http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUkmO5CAQfE1xs8VawMGHVkvzDYslTaG2wQ14empeP9g-jYSSUG6RykhnGoRc3tOea0NHhTJHP3GqmSQSdeSJEgrFOi8FYDNxnVo5AO2HXaMzLeZ0FlAhiEavST2xA681Y5hgLhdBMLYMU4u15IZpdNLM5vARkoMpp_V9NUbr9Gptrw_28aC_-nM-jfWwtRn3Nbq8dVfcTID-L9Dc60yZ17jF9qCfS-_YcgffN2AfIWd_BtZ5LzkUqDX-hu6vDWDvtTcZFSedOAm7sYf7gh4vA2BhrVN8sMawgTMJgxZEDcZbRi1IqRUfKxvNZv7mZH7qPWHvca_lgte49YLMaqm4VQNX1A58cXpQohvKifRKcyxBzuSJ8R_B8bingOJEMcX4iRkhfUo1knGDIyTxfTwfHG-B_rcdVKZikh9tiSHUnlCtC2u2Zh0TtFOsuWdtR4rtPUMydgV_69hu4S9Z2nuHKcFPXaE1KLeziyuIYFihTuhzv4A0bbmkmIKPdTddi38fHb3T)
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2912%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F6df4f7a4-6d94-41cb-8419-e6857cbd99c3_1600x992.png&t=1591195032&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1cd7-450001017d00&sig=W8Jsh_vM3h95YPMBloyC5w--~C) (http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUkmO5CAQfE1xs8Vq4OBDq6X5hsWSplDb4AY8PTWvH1w-jYQglEtEKgNnGoRcXvORa0NnhbJEP3OqmSQSdeSJEgrFuqwFYDdxm1s5AR2n3aIzLeZ0NVAhiEbP2WlQik2UGjqt0humJaGrURJzrQWd0CWzmNNHSA7mnLbXmxht87O1oz7Yx4P-6sf5NNbT1mbc1-jy3kNxNwH6u0Jzz6tk2eIe24N-rp2x5Q6-b8A-Qs7-SmzLUXIoUGv8DT1eG8DRe28xKi45cQn2y57uC3q-DICFtU7xwRrDBs4kDFoQNRhvGbUgpVZ8rGw0u_mbk_mp94Sd417LG77HrW84-ZWv0vBh8poPnDg7KE70AJMS0lmvtWMLmTD-ozUdjxRQnCmmGE-YEdKnVCMZdzhDEt_n9OB4D_S_7aAyF5P8aEsMofaCal3YsjXbmKBdZi29aj9TbK8FkrEb-NvHdhv_tqW9DpgT_NQNWoNyB7u5ggiGFeqCPvcfkOY9lxRT8LEepnvxD13dvus)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 03, 2020, 05:34:46 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 05:04:05 PM
I just wondered why it matters.  When I was in school the term STEM was never used that I ever heard.  I don't think it's some technical term or official term today that means anything.  They could include political science as being a science and it doesn't really change anything of substance.  They can call me a philosopher and it doesn't matter either.

I think it's a useful term, actually, when used descriptively, but I'd be surprised if it has some official standing.
Badge has it right, it's a collection of disciplines that basically are underrepresented but have excellent job prospects, not only now but in the future as our society gets increasingly technological and complex. 

And despite the need for it and the [high] salaries commensurate with this kind of work, kids weren't going into it because it's not cool and it's really damn hard. 

Back in the cold war, the term STEM wasn't used but there was always a push for the technical fields because it was how we'd beat the Russkies. But I think it lagged somewhat after the cold war ended. After the 80s everyone wanted to be an investment banker, and today everyone thinks they're going to be a Youtube star or an Instagram influencer. You can do those without a bunch of math.

So the focus is on reminding kids that yeah, taking all those math and science classes is hard, but there's a real nice life waiting for you on the other side.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 03, 2020, 05:36:14 PM
Don't forget video-game designer, Bwarb.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 03, 2020, 05:36:37 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 05:22:42 PM
I doubt an Art Major would apply for an engineering job, nor would a chemistry major.  I doubt employment ads go out using STEM as a requirement for the major.  I'd guess they are more specific than that, I need a BS in chemistry for this job. 

Maybe I'm wrong.  That's fine.  They could make it STEAM or whatever and I'm not going to look at a resume from an Art major who claims it's a STEAM degree.

I would get some weird resumes when we advertised for jobs at times.  Usually recruiting would ferret them out for us.
You're missing the point, and I guess you'll continue to do so, but I'll try again.

STEM was a term used for specific programs in the elementary, middle, and high schools, to promote to children that Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics, are positive areas of study that can result in good careers.  That was STEM's focus, that was its target, and its goal was to encourage more participation in those subjects at younger ages, with the ultimate result of generating more engineers and scientists and mathematicians in the workforce here in the USA.  As bwar, badgerfan, and I, have pointed out, currently there is a shortage, and it's getting worse with every passing year. 

So while there is nothing wrong with the Arts, in fact there is a lot that is very much right with them, they have absolutely nothing to do with the original intent of the STEM programs in elementary and secondary education, and indeed introducing the Arts into the STEM movement undermines its charter and dilutes its message.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 03, 2020, 05:37:05 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 03:49:26 PM
  My nickname - by which I am still referred at times by friends - was Dr. Doom.  I was known for killing projects.  
Good to know I have a project for you work on getting Bama & Clemson to the National Championship.And pull out all the stops
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 03, 2020, 05:39:31 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 03, 2020, 05:37:05 PM
Good to know I have a project for you work on getting Bama & Clemson to the National Championship.And pull out all the stops
Amen brutha.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 03, 2020, 05:41:48 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 03, 2020, 04:42:17 PM
When I was living and working in those countries, they'd call me Dr. utee94 even though I only had a bachelor's in engineering (BSEE).
They called you a Tito's soaked Shorthorn - not that there's anything wrong with that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 03, 2020, 06:55:38 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 03, 2020, 05:41:48 PM
They called you a Tito's soaked Shorthorn - not that there's anything wrong with that
I'll have you know they did NOT refer tome as Tito's soaked.

'Cause when I'm in those countries, I pretty much stick to the local wine.  Or local beer, in Germany.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 03, 2020, 06:58:54 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2020, 12:40:36 PM
I may have mentioned this, but STEM back in my Illinois area is now referred to as STEAM.

The "A" is for arts.

One of those is NOT like the other, but the arts faculty felt inferior and demanded they be included.

I shit you not. And it's bulljive.
What in the ???

I do agree that even STEM degrees should include some more diverse courses, including literature, social science, etc.

But adding it as an equal?  That would be like putting Rutgers in the B1G.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 03, 2020, 07:11:21 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 03, 2020, 12:07:54 AM
PA has 14,000,000 people vs Texas 29,000,000

There are only 12 states with a lower cases per 1M pop then Texas

Penn has almost 3 times as many cases per 1M pop as Texas

We have increased out testing and have twice as many tests then PA

you need to worry about stuff that is much more important then how Texas is doing cause Texas is doing just fine


I'm aware that TX has twice the population, which is why I am looking at the growth rate.

I'm also looking at ACTIVE cases.  PA got hit hard early, being so close to NJ and NY, but things are MUCH better now.  

I expect Texas to more than double PA in active cases in about 7 days.

The numbers really are trending in a way that makes me nervous.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 03, 2020, 10:09:39 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 03, 2020, 07:11:21 PM
I'm aware that TX has twice the population, which is why I am looking at the growth rate.

I'm also looking at ACTIVE cases.  PA got hit hard early, being so close to NJ and NY, but things are MUCH better now. 

I expect Texas to more than double PA in active cases in about 7 days.

The numbers really are trending in a way that makes me nervous.
Both Texas and Penn have about 22,000 active cases so for Texas do do this in 7 days is not possible and wont happen
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 03, 2020, 10:28:47 PM
active cases really is not the important stat hospitalization and deaths is

How does Texas and Penn compare in those stats

deaths: Texas 1768 and Penn 5768

Hospitalizations Texas 1550 and Penn 1302

Texas again has twice the population of Penn 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 03, 2020, 10:30:50 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 03, 2020, 10:09:39 PM
Both Texas and Penn have about 22,000 active cases so for Texas do do this in 7 days is not possible and wont happen
With current trends, I expect TX to be adding 1,500 to 2000 or so per day, while PA is losing about 500 per day. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 03, 2020, 11:09:42 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 03, 2020, 10:30:50 PM
With current trends, I expect TX to be adding 1,500 to 2000 or so per day, while PA is losing about 500 per day.
OK well thats a completely different statement then doubling in 7 days

again it doesnt matter to me how many positive cases we have as long as our death rate and hospitalization rate remains at the current levels

did you know that scientists are now coming to the conclusion that shutting down has little affect on the number of cases occurring

it should be interesting to see just how the Philadelphia area does in case count in the coming weeks with the riots happening there
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 04, 2020, 12:46:15 AM
It will be interesting to see how big a spike results from all the lack of social distancing over the past several days.

That is, if Covid-19 is still the major subject on our minds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 04, 2020, 06:06:41 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/H2opYxt.png)

AZ opened back up in the middle of May.  And now it's worse than anytime before.  900+ new cases TODAY, and 40 deaths.  Who could have predicted such a thing!?!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 04, 2020, 06:52:27 AM
Georgia remains flat on every metric, perhaps a very slight down trend on hospitalizations.

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/)

I notice a lot of folks on SM cherry pick data to support whatever they want to believe in the first place, and then claim X is more important than Y, when they would claim the reverse if it comported with their world view.

I do expect a detectable upsurge due to protests in a week or so.  Even ten people in a thousand infected would be spreading this thing which would then spread further the next day ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 04, 2020, 07:49:56 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 04, 2020, 06:06:41 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/H2opYxt.png)

AZ opened back up in the middle of May.  And now it's worse than anytime before.  900+ new cases TODAY, and 40 deaths.  Who could have predicted such a thing!?!
Demographics, please.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 04, 2020, 08:06:52 AM
[img width=499.988 height=280.995]https://i.imgur.com/bbXHC63.png[/img]

This trend has continued slight lower since 5/19.  Georgia was allowed to reopen partially on 23 April.  Just being allowed to reopen does not inherently mean more cases of the virus, but of course you can cherry pick a state to show otherwise.

There was quite a bit of controversy when GA reopened and predictions of disaster.  It has not happened, for whatever reason.  Unfortunately, I think the protests will drive this the other direction in a week or so.

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 04, 2020, 08:34:26 AM
I expect a spike here too, with the "protests" in Miami, Tampa and Jacksonburgh. 

Percent positive for the state is 5.4. Last week came in at 4.04.

But, my zip code has been at 8 cases for about two weeks now, which is good. No deaths, which is even better. In the adjacent zip code, which is where we do our shopping and such, there are 37 cases, which has held for about a week now.

There are zero cases in my neighborhood.

This is all good news, to me, except the first part of my post. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 04, 2020, 09:01:13 AM
I'm not sure we're going to see a spike from the protests.  We didn't see any real spike from the Spring Break beach partiers in Florida and Texas.  I'm not sure this virus is readily transmitted in the broad outdoors with only fleeting proximity between the same people for any period of time.

Now, standing directly next to someone who is actively infected, in a football stadium, packed shoulder to shoulder, could very well be a different story.

Anyway, I guess we'll see in a couple of weeks.  I certainly have no desire to be that close to anyone right now, so I don't think I'd "practice what I preach" at this point. :)  It's just a hypothesis anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 04, 2020, 09:05:41 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 04, 2020, 06:06:41 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/H2opYxt.png)

AZ opened back up in the middle of May.  And now it's worse than anytime before.  900+ new cases TODAY, and 40 deaths.  Who could have predicted such a thing!?!
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 04, 2020, 06:52:27 AM
Georgia remains flat on every metric, perhaps a very slight down trend on hospitalizations.

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/)

I notice a lot of folks on SM cherry pick data to support whatever they want to believe in the first place, and then claim X is more important than Y, when they would claim the reverse if it comported with their world view.

I do expect a detectable upsurge due to protests in a week or so.  Even ten people in a thousand infected would be spreading this thing which would then spread further the next day ...
I think there are a lot of potential explanations for something like this. 

As Cincy has pointed out many times, Georgia "reopened" but based on traffic patterns, restaurant activity, and actual daily behavior, people weren't behaving like everything was normal. His experience might be unique to Atlanta--perhaps things were different in the rest of the state. But at least based upon his experience, people were still taking the virus seriously despite the state being "open". 

I don't have boots on the ground in Arizona to know whether people in Arizona were taking precautions after the state reopened or if they went back to their lives as if everything was normal. Like many people, I do have biases about the stereotypical person in Arizona, and there's a part of me that suspects an attitude of "F it, I'm not wearing no goddamn mask" and likely a return to "normal" pre-virus behavior. Were people going to bars and nightclubs and basically ignoring distancing? In Arizona... It wouldn't surprise me.

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 04, 2020, 10:03:00 AM
Quote from: utee94 on June 04, 2020, 09:01:13 AM
I'm not sure we're going to see a spike from the protests.  We didn't see any real spike from the Spring Break beach partiers in Florida and Texas.  I'm not sure this virus is readily transmitted in the broad outdoors with only fleeting proximity between the same people for any period of time.

Now, standing directly next to someone who is actively infected, in a football stadium, packed shoulder to shoulder, could very well be a different story.

Anyway, I guess we'll see in a couple of weeks.  I certainly have no desire to be that close to anyone right now, so I don't think I'd "practice what I preach" at this point. :)  It's just a hypothesis anyway.
No, because the ass clowns brought the shit back home to the Midwest and NE.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 04, 2020, 10:04:53 AM
I know people in AZ, and they are all still practicing distancing and wearing masks.

I want demographics, just as I wanted demographics when Alabama came up a while back. Demographics matter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 04, 2020, 10:07:47 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 04, 2020, 10:03:00 AM
No, because the ass clowns brought the shit back home to the Midwest and NE.
Eh, lots of those folks stayed in those states, and they certainly interacted with the bartenders, servers, cab drivers, Uber drivers, hotel staff, and all sorts of other people that are local.

And in Texas at least, a huge portion of the beachgoers are local to the state, in any given year, anyway.

All that, and still no spikes.

The NE on the other hand was completely screwed all on its own, for various reasons we've discussed ad infinitum.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on June 04, 2020, 10:21:03 AM
https://www.kctv5.com/coronavirus/no-new-covid19-cases-connected-to-memorial-day-weekend-crowds-at-lake-of-the/article_fb9189b6-1cca-5717-a131-e0a951e5cc56.html (https://www.kctv5.com/coronavirus/no-new-covid19-cases-connected-to-memorial-day-weekend-crowds-at-lake-of-the/article_fb9189b6-1cca-5717-a131-e0a951e5cc56.html)


appears the celebrations at the lake of the ozarks has not resulted in increased volume of COVID cases...  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 04, 2020, 10:44:44 AM

(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2912%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Fd39211f8-8c13-49de-b9e2-fe0e0c86c070_1600x536.png&t=1591280084&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1c23-40000101c500&sig=V8P9C.C_rjHiyPFeXslziQ--~C) (http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUsuO3CAQ_JrhZouHMebAYRUpv2Hx6GHQYnAAZ3f264PtUyQERdNd1erC6gY-l7fac23oqFDW4NREJRNEoI4cWfiCQl2fBWDTIapWDkD7YWKwuoWczgLKOZHopRbJ2CwtM5RJC4IxOTstGO83pkFIdMqs-nABkgWVU3xfxCiqV2t7fbCPB_3dl3VprIepTdvP0eath8KmPfTzCc2-zpQ1hi20B_317Iwtd_DnBuzD5-zOh7juJfsCtYa_0OO1Aey99haj_JTjp2DfzGE_ob-XATA3xi7TYLRmw8QEDJKTZdDOMGpACLlMY2Wj3vRPTvqr3h12jnssF7zarRd0TFJCnsuwWNL5pIPBSKDDEzBgu8wWC7ySGeNvzuZxTx4FRTHFeMYTIZRPeCQjEZObDOW2ttdjwpun_w0IFVV0cqMpwfvaE6qxPmaj45ignX6tPWs7UmjvFZI2EdxtZbu9v5xp7x1Ugq8aoTUod7D7y4kQgqEu6HL_BEltuaSQvAt1192Of1COv0Q)
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2912%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Fa7f7e426-5292-4797-aab3-461278bd8a7d_1600x994.png&t=1591280084&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1c23-40000101c500&sig=ujQd7FxqJDu7I2thCXMI8A--~C) (http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUsuO3CAQ_JrhZgswGPvgwypSfsNqoIdBi8EBnN3Zrw-2T5EQlPpR1erCQEWX8nvZU6nkKJhXbxfB50ExRRqybJIT8WV9ZsQNfFhqPpDshw7eQPUpng1cSjaT14LKUqWYfBpmcFJWI3I5AjVUsFmOnJwyKxzWYzS4pBjeFzEJy6vWvTyGjwf_3Y6xsS-HLhXMZ2_S1kJ-A4ftfWI1r7NkDX7z9cF_PRtjTQ38ucHw4VKyZyKse04uYyn-L7Z4qYh7673FuDzl5CnYLn2YT2z53CGVWptJdBpg6MSgsJslmzqweuAalZon0Zehhw1-UoSvck_YOO61XPAat1wQ1FOh4GMn-cw7oWbVAejGPDKuJm0nUHZlI6Xf8yz6PTriF045pWNbG-NS0J71TAkrNJem1NdD0M3x_xZE8pIh2l5n71xpBUUbF5KG0Eesp19rq9qO6Ot7xQg6oL2trLf3lzP1veMS8asErBXzHWz-SqaUGkgTtKl9grhsKUcfnfVlh2bHP_qFv20)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 04, 2020, 11:07:43 AM
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries)

The site still has Sweden behind Belgium, Spain, Italy, and UK and deaths per capita.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 04, 2020, 11:32:45 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 04, 2020, 11:07:43 AM
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries)

The site still has Sweden behind Belgium, Spain, Italy, and UK and deaths per capita.
Yeah, Sweden's daily death rate per capita is currently higher than those countries, but overall death rate is lower. 

The point they're trying to make is that the other countries, while their outbreaks were worse several weeks ago, are now controlling the situation much better and have it in hand. While Sweden may not have been quite as bad at the beginning, but their numbers aren't declining at all and they'll overtake these other nations in per capita death rate overall if nothing is done. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 04, 2020, 12:03:17 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 04, 2020, 11:32:45 AM
Yeah, Sweden's daily death rate per capita is currently higher than those countries, but overall death rate is lower.

The point they're trying to make is that the other countries, while their outbreaks were worse several weeks ago, are now controlling the situation much better and have it in hand. While Sweden may not have been quite as bad at the beginning, but their numbers aren't declining at all and they'll overtake these other nations in per capita death rate overall if nothing is done.

And if Sweden was right, those other nations will catch right back up to them when restrictions are lifted.  That was their strategy all along.  They might or might not be right, but nothing out of the ordinary is happening with respect to their strategy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 04, 2020, 12:32:42 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 04, 2020, 12:03:17 PM
And if Sweden was right, those other nations will catch right back up to them when restrictions are lifted.  That was their strategy all along.  They might or might not be right, but nothing out of the ordinary is happening with respect to their strategy.
They're walking it back a little though: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-03/man-behind-sweden-s-virus-strategy-says-he-got-some-things-wrong

 (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-03/man-behind-sweden-s-virus-strategy-says-he-got-some-things-wrong)But I agree--we won't know much until we see the effect of these other nations reopening. If they can't continue to keep their numbers low through testing and contact tracing, then the lockdowns were useless.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 04, 2020, 12:40:01 PM
This asshole F'd up a surgery on my Ma (RIP) a few years ago, when he was at NCH (the hospital I support). 

And now this.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/03/covid-19-surgisphere-who-world-health-organization-hydroxychloroquine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/03/covid-19-surgisphere-who-world-health-organization-hydroxychloroquine)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 04, 2020, 12:42:33 PM
a so called "expert"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 04, 2020, 12:45:22 PM
He's no longer at the hospital, otherwise I'd go beat the shit out of him.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 04, 2020, 12:48:40 PM
A 1 km (that's 0.6 mi for you Imperialists) diameter asteroid is supposed to make a close pass of the earth this weekend.

"Experts" say it'll miss us by about 5M km, but hey, who trusts "experts"?

It was nice knowing y'all. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 04, 2020, 01:31:15 PM
I guess we may have to look at area under the curves down the road.  

IF we don't see a noticeable spike in cases in two weeks after these protests, does that mean we can have college football?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 04, 2020, 01:39:03 PM
I guess that depends on the kids not testing positive. 

We "know" probably 99% of them didn't practice social distancing and such.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: rolltidefan on June 04, 2020, 01:54:58 PM
bama just released at least 5 players tested positive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 04, 2020, 01:58:02 PM
Oklahoma State had either 3, or 5, depending on which report you look at.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 04, 2020, 02:31:16 PM
Quote from: rolltidefan on June 04, 2020, 01:54:58 PM
bama just released at least 5 players tested positive.
they were released from the team?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on June 04, 2020, 02:48:42 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 04, 2020, 02:31:16 PM
they were released from the team?
weakness is not allowed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: rolltidefan on June 04, 2020, 03:01:48 PM
damn straight, get that 'rona outta here. :)

no, bama had a press release stating that 5 players tested positive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 04, 2020, 03:18:13 PM
I blame the press
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 04, 2020, 04:23:45 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 04, 2020, 12:48:40 PM
A 1 km (that's 0.6 mi for you Imperialists) diameter asteroid is supposed to make a close pass of the earth this weekend.

"Experts" say it'll miss us by about 5M km, but hey, who trusts "experts"?

It was nice knowing y'all.
How much is that in Freedom units?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: rolltidefan on June 04, 2020, 04:43:40 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 04, 2020, 04:23:45 PM
How much is that in Freedom units?
about 3 million miles.

or over 13 times further than the moon (about 240,000 miles).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 04, 2020, 04:44:49 PM
How much in freedom fries?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: rolltidefan on June 04, 2020, 04:48:46 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 04, 2020, 04:44:49 PM
How much in freedom fries?

about 47,520,000,000 fries stacked end to end, assuming the ave fry is about 4 inches long.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 04, 2020, 05:23:04 PM
Quote from: rolltidefan on June 04, 2020, 04:48:46 PM
about 47,520,000,000 fries stacked end to end, assuming the ave fry is about 4 inches long.
quick how many gallons of ketchup are needed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: rolltidefan on June 04, 2020, 05:53:33 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 04, 2020, 05:23:04 PM
quick how many gallons of ketchup are needed
alright, lot of assumptions...

assuming there is an average of  30 4" fries per large order from a fast food chain (saw somewhere that it was ave of 80-90 fries, but ranged in size from 2"-6", so i figured most are smaller ones and 1/2 or 1/3 would be the 4" we needed. this is using the thinner mcdonalds size fries, thicker and/or wave/crinkle fries would change this amount, and since i have something resembling a good estimate, i'm going with it), that'd be 1,584,000,000 large order of fries from mcdonalds.

according to this,  (https://www.cockeyed.com/inside/ketchup/ketchup.html)there is about .25 oz in a packet. and assuming most people use 3 packets per large order of fries (we're all fat, remember?), that'd be 4,752,000,000 packets of ketchup. (i figure some people like a ton, and some none, so 3 sounded reasonable average). or 1,188,000,000 ounces of ketchup.

there's 128 fluid ounces in 1 liquid gal, so that's 9,281,250 gallons of ketchup needed.

changing the # of fries in a large to 40 bring the gals down to about 7 million needed.
changing # of packets used to 4 brings the gal up to about 12 million needed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: rolltidefan on June 04, 2020, 05:57:16 PM
if you like these ridiculous conversions, you'll enjoy xkcd what if  (https://what-if.xkcd.com/archive/)series. he takes ridiculous questions from readers (similar to questions above) and tries to answer them scientifically. really funny reads but also informative.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on June 04, 2020, 11:37:07 PM
Quote from: rolltidefan on June 04, 2020, 03:01:48 PM
damn straight, get that 'rona outta here. :)

no, bama had a press release stating that 5 players tested positive.
Press release? I thought they're shutting up and everyone else is reporting it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 05, 2020, 07:42:50 AM
GA reported a high figure yesterday versus the norm.  One day of course is one day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 05, 2020, 09:08:28 AM
Florida reported higher figures the past two days, but I'm think that might be catching up to the labs reporting. At least that's what I hope. Anyway, deaths are dropping, which is positive.

And now, in Illinois:


CHICAGO (CBS)– You can get a COVID-19 test, even if you are not showing symptoms.

Free tests are available at any of the state’s 11 community testing sites. This is part of the governor’s goal for moving Illinois from stage three to stage four.

The state is urging anyone who joined any of the rallies and protests in the past few days to get a free test. This is in an effort to guard a spike in cases.

Infectious disease specialists say getting more people tested is crucial.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 05, 2020, 09:14:10 AM
May had the biggest job increase ever at 2.5 million

America is waking up

Hopefully we can find common ground and the violence will soon stop
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: rolltidefan on June 05, 2020, 09:50:16 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on June 04, 2020, 11:37:07 PM
Press release? I thought they're shutting up and everyone else is reporting it.
i guess i misspoke again. the university can't comment on health of students, but through "sources" it's been released.

https://www.al.com/alabamafootball/2020/06/several-alabama-players-test-positive-for-covid-19.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 05, 2020, 09:57:23 AM
Quote from: rolltidefan on June 05, 2020, 09:50:16 AM
i guess i misspoke again. the university can't comment on health of students, but through "sources" it's been released.

https://www.al.com/alabamafootball/2020/06/several-alabama-players-test-positive-for-covid-19.html

This isnt the end of the world

2 weeks from now theyre good to go

If players are gonna get this thing then now is the time
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: rolltidefan on June 05, 2020, 10:05:04 AM
i didn't mean it like that, just that it's happening.
2 things concern me though.
1 - per the article, at least one of the players was in close proximity with several other players, so this could spread through the team quickly.
2 - while deaths for young people are rare and not really a major threat, there has been some long term damage to lungs for several people, even some that had minor symptoms. i worry it could effect some kids seasons or even careers. almost certainly it won't be many if any, but even a couple losing their career over it would be disheartening. similar to a freak injury ending it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 05, 2020, 10:14:32 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 05, 2020, 09:57:23 AM
This isnt the end of the world

2 weeks from now theyre good to go

If players are gonna get this thing then now is the time
5 people I know have been sick. The two most in shape people:

1. black belt - was sick for 30+ days, but close to 60 yo
2. high school cross country kid - was sick for 3 weeks. 

nobody else was sick for less than 3 weeks. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 05, 2020, 10:16:00 AM
Quote from: rolltidefan on June 05, 2020, 10:05:04 AM
i didn't mean it like that, just that it's happening.
2 things concern me though.
1 - per the article, at least one of the players was in close proximity with several other players, so this could spread through the team quickly.
2 - while deaths for young people are rare and not really a major threat, there has been some long term damage to lungs for several people, even some that had minor symptoms. i worry it could effect some kids seasons or even careers. almost certainly it won't be many if any, but even a couple losing their career over it would be disheartening. similar to a freak injury ending it.
I share your concern but the odds are huge against any player having a serious bout with the virus and the fact is if 5 are positive then
the majority of the team may have already had it

do we actually know if they are testing the whole team and if so what the results are

they should do antibody tests on every player
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 05, 2020, 10:17:38 AM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 05, 2020, 10:14:32 AM
5 people I know have been sick. The two most in shape people:

1. black belt - was sick for 30+ days, but close to 60 yo
2. high school cross country kid - was sick for 3 weeks.

nobody else was sick for less than 3 weeks.
and I know of 4 people (related to me) who had it and didnt even know it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 05, 2020, 10:26:41 AM
Here is a pretty good article on college football testing

https://www.si.com/college/2020/06/02/coronavirus-covid-testing-college-football-return (https://www.si.com/college/2020/06/02/coronavirus-covid-testing-college-football-return)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: rolltidefan on June 05, 2020, 10:27:10 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 05, 2020, 10:16:00 AM
I share your concern but the odds are huge against any player having a serious bout with the virus and the fact is if 5 are positive then
the majority of the team may have already had it

do we actually know if they are testing the whole team and if so what the results are

they should do antibody tests on every player
agreed with most of this.

i'd wager a significant portion of the populations has already had it and had no idea.

as for testing the whole team, i think they are, but don't know for certain. as for the antibodies, agreed. not just players either, i'd be for just about everyone getting tested.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 05, 2020, 10:35:34 AM
There is a private clinic I use back in Illinois, that is doing both tests. I'll go there soon after I get back. There are some public ones too, but they are only doing the China virus test, not antibody.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 05, 2020, 12:45:35 PM

(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2912%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F1b4b93aa-ade5-4a6a-a8fd-b73aae14350b_1600x400.png&t=1591365012&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1c3d-5f0001011800&sig=K697VsctsMjCk4elFp4DgQ--~C) (http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUkmOpDAQfE1xA3nFcODQamm-gbwklNVeaNtMT83rJylOI1l2KJeIVIatbrDn8lqOXFt3Viird4tgM1dUdYgcneTU-bpuBSBqH5ZWTuiO0wRvdfM5XQ1MSjp3z4VLASPVQEdmJqEkmamyMCnOwY2Giu6SWfXpPCQLS07h9SbuwvJs7agP_vFgv_BYl4Z6mtq0_RpsjhjyUe-A7wbNPq-SNfjo24N9bsjYMoLvG_CPPWd3JcJ6lLwXqNX_BozXBnBg7y3G5CUnL0G8zGm_APOlByKNsZPojda8F1xBP0s69doZzgwoNU9iqHzQUf_NSf_Ue0LkuNfyhu9x6xtSI8zMtUYCkL3QI6Jpc71RGAQquCRmpSMhfwQhw5H2zi-MMEJGIillSrCBDvHbjhPfbNwegsSd_beerixFJzeY4ve9YkE1dg_Z6DAkaJdbK1bFM_n2WiFpE8DdRrbb-bcv7XXAkuCnBmgNyh1EdyUj-B86FHQZv0BaYi7Jp935emg04x-ps7_G)
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2912%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Fff52348d-3d2b-42fc-afde-9bc9a2e623f2_1600x990.png&t=1591365012&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1c3d-5f0001011800&sig=rgqcu640TO_J2DFhRwBTBg--~C) (http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUsuO5CAM_JrOLRGYPA85jEba34gMmDSaBDJAdrb369fpnFZCuORXWS4bLLTG9JqPmEt1ZkqLt3MLkxrkUDGycuzGyufFJaId_TaXdFJ1nHrzBouP4SqArpNT9WSrzCD1BA4JRwAFvdQg21FPdhhQVBfNgqf1FAzNMWyvd-Nqm5-lHPmhPh7wi5-xocmnzgXNV2Pizi6_40psHRXzvFKWze--PODTcccSGXzfQH2sMdorsC1HimuinP1vYn8uRAfX3mQ8LdN1FyF_-jRfxPFUk-i0NmNba0RVt2qgeurkWKPVCjQNwzS2TVYN7vg3BvzJ94Tc417LG77HzW_oXAeqHW2tLOi6BWdqdJabajMhUA_KwSJ7If5Mk2iOsFZ-BgFC9KKTEoYWGtns36YflTO7e7RiX-G_9VRpThhso5Nf18wJWZt1ixq3JlC51Fo4az-DL6-FAuqN7C1kuZV_61JeB82BfvJGpVC6naxuB4LvoWJCG_kEwrzHFHxYrc8Hshj_AN_Tv-A)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 05, 2020, 12:48:58 PM
I'd like to see this retraction widely reported.

They closed the retractions with an apology:
Quote
We all entered this collaboration to contribute in good faith and at a time of great need during the COVID-19 pandemic. We deeply apologise to you, the editors, and the journal readership for any embarrassment or inconvenience that this may have caused.
In a linked statement (https://www.thelancet.com/lancet/article/s0140673620313246), The Lancet called for rapid investigation into Surgisphere, saying:
Quote
The Lancet takes issues of scientific integrity extremely seriously, and there are many outstanding questions about Surgisphere and the data that were allegedly included in this study. Following guidelines from the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE) and International Committee of Medical Journal Editors (ICMJE), institutional reviews of Surgisphere’s research collaborations are urgently needed.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 05, 2020, 01:46:02 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 29, 2020, 01:22:58 PM
I really don't get all of the conspiracy stuff.

Do I think China lied about their numbers?  Sure I do.  That's pretty well documented.

Do I think that China's lack of safety regulations probably played a part in this virus transmitting to humans?  Looks like it.

Do I think the US was woefully unprepared for a pandemic as far as economic, medical, and public response?  Absolutely.  But so were a lot of other countries.  Learn from it and move on.

Do I think that China tanked the worlds economy and their own for... reasons? - No, and I have seen zero evidence that supports this weird theory.

Do I think this virus "escaped from a lab?" No, that's ridiculous nonsense and a quick Google search will bring up quite a few peer reviewed scientific articles on why that isn't the case.

Do I think that somehow this virus was started in China to bring down Donald Trump? No, that's horse patooey. 

Pandemics have happened before, and they will happen again.  Sometimes sh!t happens.  That's it.  There is no WHY.  It just happened.

So...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/03/exclusive-coronavirus-began-accident-disease-escaped-chinese/

 (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/03/exclusive-coronavirus-began-accident-disease-escaped-chinese/)https://www.foxnews.com/world/ex-mi6-boss-says-coronavirus-likely-engineered-in-wuhan-lab (https://www.foxnews.com/world/ex-mi6-boss-says-coronavirus-likely-engineered-in-wuhan-lab)

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/former-mi6-head-covid-19-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-630346


 (https://www.jpost.com/health-science/former-mi6-head-covid-19-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-630346)A former head of MI6 has said he believes the coronavirus pandemic "started as an accident" when the virus escaped from a laboratory in China. 

In an interview with The Telegraph, Sir Richard Dearlove said he had seen an "important" new scientific report suggesting the virus did not emerge naturally but was man-made by Chinese scientists.


"Of course, the Chinese  (https://www.jpost.com/international/wuhan-lab-admits-to-having-3-strains-of-bat-coronavirus-on-site-629146)must have felt, well, if they've got to suffer a pandemic maybe we shouldn't try too hard to stop, as it were, our competitors suffering the same disadvantages we've got.

"Look, the Chinese understand us extremely well. They have made a study of us over the last decade or longer, particularly through attending our universities. We understand the Chinese very poorly. It's an imbalanced relationship in that respect."



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 05, 2020, 01:47:04 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 05, 2020, 10:17:38 AM
and I know of 4 people (related to me) who had it and didnt even know it

Yes, two people I know directly that have had it, and never knew it until the test came back positive.

As for me, I am negative for antibodies, which is what I expected but man, kinda woulda been nice to think I'd had it and just never knew.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 05, 2020, 01:51:50 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 05, 2020, 10:17:38 AM
and I know of 4 people (related to me) who had it and didnt even know it

It depends on whether or not you develop pneumonia.

I think I read that 35% of people show no symptoms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 05, 2020, 01:55:25 PM
There is a thing called a "cytokine explosion" that can happens in people who have very active immune systems and can get bad quickly.

It's rather interesting.  

My kid in Texas was pretty sick for 4-5 days, short of breath in particular.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 05, 2020, 01:59:08 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 05, 2020, 01:46:02 PM
So...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/03/exclusive-coronavirus-began-accident-disease-escaped-chinese/

 (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/03/exclusive-coronavirus-began-accident-disease-escaped-chinese/)https://www.foxnews.com/world/ex-mi6-boss-says-coronavirus-likely-engineered-in-wuhan-lab (https://www.foxnews.com/world/ex-mi6-boss-says-coronavirus-likely-engineered-in-wuhan-lab)

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/former-mi6-head-covid-19-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-630346


 (https://www.jpost.com/health-science/former-mi6-head-covid-19-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-630346)A former head of MI6 has said he believes the coronavirus pandemic "started as an accident" when the virus escaped from a laboratory in China.

In an interview with The Telegraph, Sir Richard Dearlove said he had seen an "important" new scientific report suggesting the virus did not emerge naturally but was man-made by Chinese scientists.


"Of course, the Chinese (https://www.jpost.com/international/wuhan-lab-admits-to-having-3-strains-of-bat-coronavirus-on-site-629146)must have felt, well, if they've got to suffer a pandemic maybe we shouldn't try too hard to stop, as it were, our competitors suffering the same disadvantages we've got.

"Look, the Chinese understand us extremely well. They have made a study of us over the last decade or longer, particularly through attending our universities. We understand the Chinese very poorly. It's an imbalanced relationship in that respect."




So a former MI6 guy's opinion counters a broad body of scientific evidence to the contrary?

I'm not so convinced.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 05, 2020, 02:01:22 PM
Did you read the full articles? It ain't just one guy.


This is going to get ugly for China. Very ugly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 05, 2020, 02:01:29 PM
The analyses I've read on the virus convince me it is not artificial, was not produced as any kind of bioweapon in any lab.  It is possible it was being studied in a lab and escaped.

Bats are fascinating in that they have a highly developed immune system and viruses don't generally kill them, so the virus can spread.  A pathogen with a high mortality rate will burn itself out quickly.  When one of these becomes zoonotic, humans will have issues.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 05, 2020, 02:13:40 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 05, 2020, 02:01:22 PM
Did you read the full articles? It ain't just one guy.


This is going to get ugly for China. Very ugly.
Yes. Not a single stand of evidence, all conjecture. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 05, 2020, 02:17:40 PM
Do you want me to bookmark this again?

Last time you said there were no credible thoughts on this. Now there are. There will be more.

Sir Dearlove carries a lot of credibility with him.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 05, 2020, 02:19:56 PM
Sir Richard Dearlove said he had seen an "important" new scientific report suggesting the virus did not emerge naturally but was man-made by Chinese scientists.

OK, where is this report?  If it's scientific, it was published somewhere.  He's former head so it's not as if it is an MI6 report.

Basically, I don't view this as evidence at all as compared with numerous scientific reports asserting otherwise and explaining their rationale.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 05, 2020, 02:28:13 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 05, 2020, 02:19:56 PM
Sir Richard Dearlove said he had seen an "important" new scientific report suggesting the virus did not emerge naturally but was man-made by Chinese scientists.

OK, where is this report?  If it's scientific, it was published somewhere.  He's former head so it's not as if it is an MI6 report.

Basically, I don't view this as evidence at all as compared with numerous scientific reports asserting otherwise and explaining their rationale.
"I do think that this started as an accident," Sir Richard told the Telegraph, citing a peer-reviewed paper by Professor Angus Dalgleish of St George's Hospital at the University of London, and the Norwegian virologist Birger Sorensen.



6-1  Israeli geneticist, Dr Ronen Shemesh, who is working on treatment for COVID-19, said in his opinion the virus was more likely created in a laboratory than evolved naturally in nature.

“There are many reasons to believe that the COVID-19 generating SARS-CoV-2 was generated in a lab.  Most probably by methods of genetic engineering,” he said.  

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/coronavirus/scientists-say-covid19-cooked-up-in-lab/news-story/242c5f9fd14f162dea67f166bcabd985



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 05, 2020, 02:36:59 PM
I'd like to read the actual publications.

I've looked over several others that, to me, were persuasive.  This Shemesh fellow doesn't seem to have much history on google.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 05, 2020, 02:38:37 PM
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/no-evidence-covid19-manmade-mi6-government-a4459971.html (https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/no-evidence-covid19-manmade-mi6-government-a4459971.html)

“Both the Health Secretary and the Chief Medical Officer’s office have spoken about this previously and have said that we have seen no evidence that the virus is man-made.”
He added: “There will need to be an independent inquiry to establish precisely how this virus spread and when.”
The virus is widely believed to have started spreading in the Chinese city of Wuhan (https://www.standard.co.uk/topic/wuhan) at the end of last year.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 05, 2020, 02:45:57 PM
https://niqnaq.wordpress.com/2020/06/04/the-report-has-not-yet-been-accepted-for-publication-in-any-scientific-journal-and-im-not-surprised-cos-its-obvious-bollocks/ (https://niqnaq.wordpress.com/2020/06/04/the-report-has-not-yet-been-accepted-for-publication-in-any-scientific-journal-and-im-not-surprised-cos-its-obvious-bollocks/)

So, I can't find the publication because it hasn't been published, which no doubt will lead to conspiracy theories as well.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 05, 2020, 02:50:57 PM
43% of all COVID deaths in the US were at nursing homes. Nursing home population is less than .6% of the US population. The remaining 57% of deaths were 99% old as shit people. This is an obvious exaggeration but not by much.

This disease was nowhere near as bad as the hype. I am afraid it’s all it’s done is caused people to not take serious a next virus- which could be way more lethal to the young and healthy. People might say oh you guys cried wolf last time, F off. 

This disease kills the old and sick, and they shut down an entire country and ruined the strongest economy in the history of this nation because of panic and mass hysteria.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 05, 2020, 03:09:15 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 05, 2020, 02:36:59 PM
I'd like to read the actual publications.

I've looked over several others that, to me, were persuasive.  This Shemesh fellow doesn't seem to have much history on google.


It's not published, but has been peer-reviewed. So it will likely be published.

The other guy has been around for a while. Seems to have an impressive background, with a Ph.D. in Genetics and Molecular Biology.

That's a STEM field, for those wondering, but I digress.

https://ruprecht.dk/monitor/two-unusual-covid-19-features-convincing-scientists-it-was-man-made/
 (https://ruprecht.dk/monitor/two-unusual-covid-19-features-convincing-scientists-it-was-man-made/)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 05, 2020, 03:22:27 PM
Peer reviewed can of course mean it was shot down and won't be published.  It happens.  It probably should happen more often.  Some peer reviewers give a rather cursory look at it as it takes quite a bit of time to really review any scientific paper.

And there are SO many journals today out there just about anything can get published.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on June 05, 2020, 03:28:11 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 05, 2020, 02:50:57 PM

This disease was nowhere near as bad as the hype. I am afraid it’s all it’s done is caused people to not take serious a next virus- which could be way more lethal to the young and healthy. People might say oh you guys cried wolf last time, F off.

It's probably a perspective thing, but I don't know that I totally buy this. 

Most of the folks making this point have been highly skeptical to begin with. They didn't trust the experts and grabbed onto scraps they saw insisting it probably wasn't that bad. So my assumption is that unless they're high-end epidemiologists (not as far as I know), they would've had the same reaction even if it had been more serious. 

There was an interesting line I heard somewhere that people underprepare for the first disaster and overprepare after that. Maybe it'll flip here. I also wonder what the level of deadliness would have to be to hit that panic point. 10 percent? 5 percent? Chances are we'll have some level of fair warning. It'll be interesting and sad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 05, 2020, 03:38:20 PM
I think it was about as bad as the hype, if you look at the mainstream hype.  Had we not taken aggressive measures here, the death toll would have been higher obviously, probably 150,000 or more.  We arguably could have responded differently, I've come to think the face mask is much more effective than we thought in March.  And of course the clock is still running on this, we're by no means over it and won't be until an effective safe vaccine is widely employed.

I'm curious as to how Germany has done so well in this, I've read a few "analyses" that were unconvincing and politically oriented.

I think the Asian nations have managed because they are used to this sort of thing and wearing a mask is common.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 05, 2020, 03:41:07 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 05, 2020, 03:38:20 PM
I think it was about as bad as the hype, if you look at the mainstream hype.  Had we not taken aggressive measures here, the death toll would have been higher obviously, probably 150,000 or more.  We arguably could have responded differently, I've come to think the face mask is much more effective than we thought in March.  And of course the clock is still running on this, we're by no means over it and won't be until an effective safe vaccine is widely employed.

I'm curious as to how Germany has done so well in this, I've read a few "analyses" that were unconvincing and politically oriented.

I think the Asian nations have managed because they are used to this sort of thing and wearing a mask is common.
How large is the old population in Germany and are nursing homes prevalent there. Your answers probably lie somewhere in there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 05, 2020, 03:44:19 PM
Their case count is remarkably low.  Germany is a neighbor to France which was hit very hard.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on June 05, 2020, 03:44:31 PM
I guess I am being a fool between living in the barely locked-down Arizona where the cases are sky rocketing because our governor is Foolishly loosening things up and now I have booked an Alaskan cruise on the hot bed of all COVID-19 places a cruise ship in August. OMG what am I doing, how can I be so stupid and you know I am just causing the spread of the virus. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 05, 2020, 04:08:06 PM
Germany probably has the best health care system in Europe, based on my conversations with people I know in Europe.

Ours is damn good too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 05, 2020, 04:27:15 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 05, 2020, 04:08:06 PM
Germany probably has the best health care system in Europe, based on my conversations with people I know in Europe.

Ours is damn good too.
It’s the greatest in the world if you’ve got money. 

If not, uh oh.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on June 05, 2020, 04:30:42 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 05, 2020, 03:38:20 PM
I think it was about as bad as the hype, if you look at the mainstream hype.  Had we not taken aggressive measures here, the death toll would have been higher obviously, probably 150,000 or more.  We arguably could have responded differently, I've come to think the face mask is much more effective than we thought in March.  And of course the clock is still running on this, we're by no means over it and won't be until an effective safe vaccine is widely employed.

I'm curious as to how Germany has done so well in this, I've read a few "analyses" that were unconvincing and politically oriented.

I think the Asian nations have managed because they are used to this sort of thing and wearing a mask is common.
Some are also considerably more flexible when it comes to rights. Not in the good way. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 05, 2020, 04:32:33 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on June 05, 2020, 04:30:42 PM
Some are also considerably more flexible when it comes to rights. Not in the good way.
This lol. 

Although I’m starting to question our rights here as police brutalize peaceful protestors and people just walking down the street all over this country at the moment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 05, 2020, 04:44:30 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 05, 2020, 04:27:15 PM
It’s the greatest in the world if you’ve got money.

If not, uh oh.
This is one of many problems that needs fixing here. I'm not for government-run healthcare at all (see the VA), but we really need to get the costs of Rx in line. I understand companies spend a ton of money on research, but I also know much of that research is government-funded too.

My wife ran out of her blood pressure medicine down here, as we stayed longer than planned. She went to fill it at CVS (ahead of the scheduled time) and insurance would not cover. $800.00.

She pays $10 for a 90 day normally. Needless to say, I had my brother UPS her supply to her, so she only missed one day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 05, 2020, 04:48:18 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 05, 2020, 04:44:30 PM
This is one of many problems that needs fixing here. I'm not for government-run healthcare at all (see the VA), but we really need to get the costs of Rx in line. I understand companies spend a ton of money on research, but I also know much of that research is government-funded too.

My wife ran out of her blood pressure medicine down here, as we stayed longer than planned. She went to fill it at CVS (ahead of the scheduled time) and insurance would not cover. $800.00.

She pays $10 for a 90 day normally. Needless to say, I had my brother UPS her supply to her, so she only missed one day.
Those companies spend more money on advertising than they do R&D. By an order of magnitude of several factors. And that is criminal.

Every other major developed country in the free world has figured out health care. Except us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 05, 2020, 05:05:41 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 05, 2020, 04:32:33 PM
This lol.

Although I’m starting to question our rights here as police brutalize peaceful protestors and people just walking down the street all over this country at the moment.
Well, much like healthcare, the police tend not to do that...

...if you've got money. (Or appear to).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 05, 2020, 05:23:49 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 05, 2020, 05:05:41 PM
Well, much like healthcare, the police tend not to do that...

...if you've got money. (Or appear to).
The police do whatever they want to whoever they want. As someone who appears to have money- I learned this the hard way through many many many interactions with police. Any interaction with police is like rolling the dice- they literally do whatever they want and get away with it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 05, 2020, 05:25:53 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 05, 2020, 04:32:33 PM
This lol.

Although I’m starting to question our rights here as police brutalize peaceful protestors and people just walking down the street all over this country at the moment.
what are you talking about
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 05, 2020, 05:28:28 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 05, 2020, 05:25:53 PM
what are you talking about
Is your head in the sand or are you living under a rock?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 05, 2020, 05:29:49 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 05, 2020, 05:28:28 PM
Is your head in the sand or are you living under a rock?
are you talking about some specific thing that has happened today or are you just generalizing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 05, 2020, 05:29:54 PM
I have step-family in France, and I would note they complain about their health care system quite a bit.  Two cousins are MDs.

From what I can tell, they have pretty competent doctors in the main.

One issue is that the US market potentiates new drug development, companies know they can get a lot of money here for a new drug, and then sell it elsewhere for a fraction of the cost because the US covers their nut, so to speak.

If you cut out those monies for new drugs from the US, you cut costs, but you likely also cut research into new medications.  One thing I learn from TV is just how many medications are now available for maladies I didn't know existed.

"NEW Flumoxiril!  Shown to treat manipotitis with 96% effectiveness!!!  Caution, taking Flumoxiril may cause digestive failure, kidney stones, impotence, cancer of the brain, and Alzheimer's.  Talk to YOUR doctor to see if  Flumoxiril is right for you!!!"

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 05, 2020, 05:31:42 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 05, 2020, 05:29:49 PM
are you talking about some specific thing that has happened today or are you just generalizing
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1268910446414790658?s=20
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 05, 2020, 05:35:19 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 05, 2020, 05:31:42 PM
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1268910446414790658?s=20
yes two officers were suspended for this but this is far from the norm

police do not brutalize peaceful protesters
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 05, 2020, 05:36:13 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 05, 2020, 05:29:54 PM
I have step-family in France, and I would note they complain about their health care system quite a bit.  Two cousins are MDs.

From what I can tell, they have pretty competent doctors in the main.

One issue is that the US market potentiates new drug development, companies know they can get a lot of money here for a new drug, and then sell it elsewhere for a fraction of the cost because the US covers their nut, so to speak.

If you cut out those monies for new drugs from the US, you cut costs, but you likely also cut research into new medications.  One thing I learn from TV is just how many medications are now available for maladies I didn't know existed.

"NEW Flumoxiril!  Shown to treat manipotitis with 96% effectiveness!!!  Caution, taking Flumoxiril may cause digestive failure, kidney stones, impotence, cancer of the brain, and Alzheimer's.  Talk to YOUR doctor to see if  Flumoxiril is right for you!!!"
Who doesn’t complain about their health care system? Every country does it. 

I would say that having a healthcare system- any system- where everybody is covered and no one has to file for bankruptcy and be financially ruined over medical costs is better than what we currently have. 

Drugs companies spend almost nothing on R&D. Most spend 5-10x what they do on r&d on MARKETING/Advertising.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 05, 2020, 05:36:58 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 05, 2020, 05:23:49 PM
The police do whatever they want to whoever they want. As someone who appears to have money- I learned this the hard way through many many many interactions with police. Any interaction with police is like rolling the dice- they literally do whatever they want and get away with it.
The evidence is that they don't get away with it often anyway.  The police who pushed that old man were suspended.

I've had a fair number of interactions with police, LEOs, and of those, one was a bit bizarre.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 05, 2020, 05:38:19 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 05, 2020, 05:36:13 PM
Drugs companies spend almost nothing on R&D. Most spend 5-10x what they do on r&d on MARKETING/Advertising.
In 2018, the pharmaceutical industry spent just under 180 billion U.S. dollars on research and development, which is an increase of over 10 billion compared to the previous year. By 2024, expenditures are expected to reach a total of over 210 billion U.S. dollars.

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2013/05/23/another_look_at_marketing_vs_rd_in_pharma (https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2013/05/23/another_look_at_marketing_vs_rd_in_pharma)

https://www.thepharmaletter.com/article/us-pharma-slammed-over-marketing-vs-r-d (https://www.thepharmaletter.com/article/us-pharma-slammed-over-marketing-vs-r-d)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 05, 2020, 05:39:12 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 05, 2020, 05:35:19 PM
yes two officers were suspended for this but this is far from the norm

police do not brutalize peaceful protesters
Fun fact (https://buffalonews.com/2020/06/05/57-members-of-buffalo-police-riot-response-team-resign/)...



Quote
All 57 of the members of the Buffalo Police Department's Emergency Response Team resigned Friday from the unit which responds to riots and other crowd control situations, the president of the union that represents Buffalo police officers told The Buffalo News.

<snip>

The union representing Buffalo police officers told its rank and file members Friday that the union would no longer pay for legal fees to defend police officers related to the protests which began Saturday in downtown Buffalo and have continued on and off, according to one source. The union is upset with the treatment of the two officers who were suspended Thursday.
"Our position is these officers were simply following orders from Deputy Police Commissioner Joseph Gramaglia to clear the square," said Buffalo Police Benevolent Association President John Evans. "It doesn't specify clear the square of men, 50 and under or 15 to 40. They were simply doing their job. I don't know how much contact was made. He did slip in my estimation. He fell backwards."
It's okay. They were just following orders. That's always been an airtight defense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 05, 2020, 05:40:02 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 05, 2020, 05:36:58 PM
The evidence is that they don't get away with it often anyway.  The police who pushed that old man were suspended.
Suspended... You mean administrative leave with pay until this blows over?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 05, 2020, 05:40:10 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 05, 2020, 05:36:58 PM
The evidence is that they don't get away with it often anyway.  The police who pushed that old man were suspended.

I've had a fair number of interactions with police, LEOs, and of those, one was a bit bizarre.
They get suspended with pay or fired. That’s the worst that ever happens to them. Literally 99% of the time they never get prosecuted or punished. 

They beat the living shit out of me once, for no reason, and nothing happened to them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 05, 2020, 05:42:29 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 05, 2020, 05:35:19 PM
yes two officers were suspended for this but this is far from the norm

police do not brutalize peaceful protesters
Lol. That is the norm. And wake up- they are beating the shit out of people just protesting. The cops are scum. The entire culture is rotten to the core. It’s not a few bad apples. It’s a bunch of rotten ones and a few good apples. Most cops suck at their jobs. The really intelligent and honest people who join the police either burn out, succumb to the culture, of leave. It’s not a breeding ground that attracts or keep the brightest and best.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 05, 2020, 05:44:34 PM
That has not been my experience with LEOs, at all, not even remotely.

Of course, I'm white, so there is that.

And I chat briefly with some almost daily, at least until these protests cropped up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 05, 2020, 05:44:42 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 05, 2020, 05:42:29 PM
Lol. That is the norm. And wake up- they are beating the shit out of people just protesting. The cops are scum. The entire culture is rotten to the core. It’s not a few bad apples. It’s a bunch of rotten ones and a few good apples. Most cops suck at their jobs. The really intelligent and honest people who join the police either burn out, succumb to the culture, of leave. It’s not a breeding ground that attracts or keep the brightest and best.
Mdot21 have you met OAM

you two should go out and have a beer together
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 05, 2020, 05:51:47 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 05, 2020, 05:44:42 PM
Mdot21 have you met OAM

you two should go out and have a beer together
I do think if we all went out and had a beer together, there might be spirited discussion but we'd all get along just fine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 05, 2020, 05:58:41 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 05, 2020, 05:51:47 PM
I do think if we all went out and had a beer together, there might be spirited discussion but we'd all get along just fine.
well sure we have something that goes way beyond red or blue or even race

we all have a great love of college football

HOOK EM
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 05, 2020, 06:52:32 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 05, 2020, 05:51:47 PM
I do think if we all went out and had a beer together, there might be spirited discussion but we'd all get along just fine.
As long as it was good beer. Bud Light and I'm cussing everyone
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on June 05, 2020, 07:19:09 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 05, 2020, 05:35:19 PM
yes two officers were suspended for this but this is far from the norm

police do not brutalize peaceful protesters
Sir, that man tripped. That's what the police said. 

(I suppose it depends what brutalize means. They do seem to be assaulting people at a a pretty good clip these days. Sometimes even stealing from them. And it's safe to assume the one we have video of are likely not the majority of them)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 05, 2020, 07:27:37 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 05, 2020, 05:44:42 PM
Mdot21 have you met OAM

you two should go out and have a beer together
We could send them out on riot control - afterall how tough could it be?They could share a car like Reed & Malloy in ADAM 12
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 05, 2020, 07:38:15 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on June 05, 2020, 06:52:32 PM
As long as it was good beer. Bud Light and I'm cussing everyone
Well, I am reminded of the times my college buddies who moved to Redondo Beach after Purdue and I would hang out... 

We'd get back to their place after the bars closed at 1 AM, and then we got into "one more beer" mode... I.e. we'd sit there bullshittin' for hours, just having "one more beer" which was like 5-6 over several more hours. 

That was only possible because "one more beer" mode was handled with Miller Lite. If it'd been my usual IPAs I might have been comatose.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 05, 2020, 09:29:47 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 05, 2020, 05:42:29 PM
Lol. That is the norm. And wake up- they are beating the shit out of people just protesting. The cops are scum. The entire culture is rotten to the core. It’s not a few bad apples. It’s a bunch of rotten ones and a few good apples. Most cops suck at their jobs. The really intelligent and honest people who join the police either burn out, succumb to the culture, of leave. It’s not a breeding ground that attracts or keep the brightest and best.
this is close to how I feel

my cousin was a cop in Dallas and San Jose.  He burnt out because of the culture.  He went into education, taught criminal justice at UNL for a few years, until he got a more lucrative job in the private sector.

my cousin and I are white and from the Nebraska/Iowa area
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on June 05, 2020, 09:47:25 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 05, 2020, 05:36:58 PM
The evidence is that they don't get away with it often anyway.  The police who pushed that old man were suspended.

I've had a fair number of interactions with police, LEOs, and of those, one was a bit bizarre.
Is there evidence of this?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 05, 2020, 10:09:45 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on June 05, 2020, 09:47:25 PM
Is there evidence of this?
No. There’s evidence the other way.

99.9% of the time, police don’t get prosecuted for their brutality/murder. And I believe that is an actual stat. It’s either 99% or 99.9%- some ridiculous number like this. They are literally never held accountable. And that’s why you keep seeing this shit happen and why people are protesting in the streets. We’ve had enough. Enough is enough. This shit has to end and it ends now. This is not a battle the police or the politicians will win either. There have been protests going on for almost 2 weeks straight. And it’s not going to stop until there are actual steps toward change taken.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 05, 2020, 10:19:57 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 05, 2020, 10:09:45 PM
No. There’s evidence the other way.

99.9% of the time, police don’t get prosecuted for their brutality/murder. And I believe that is an actual stat. It’s either 99% or 99.9%- some ridiculous number like this. They are literally never held accountable. And that’s why you keep seeing this shit happen and why people are protesting in the streets. We’ve had enough. Enough is enough. This shit has to end and it ends now. This is not a battle the police or the politicians will win either. There have been protests going on for almost 2 weeks straight. And it’s not going to stop until there are actual steps toward change taken.
as long as the protests are peaceful I think you should protest every day forever

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 06, 2020, 07:08:15 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 05, 2020, 10:09:45 PM
And it’s not going to stop until there are actual steps toward change taken.
What is an example of an "actual step" that should be taken?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on June 06, 2020, 08:53:34 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 06, 2020, 07:08:15 AM
What is an example of an "actual step" that should be taken?
Yeah, that is my question too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 06, 2020, 09:15:28 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 06, 2020, 07:08:15 AM
What is an example of an "actual step" that should be taken?
Write a letter to your local rep and senators.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 06, 2020, 09:19:40 AM
mandatory body cameras with audio and gps tracking

accountability
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 06, 2020, 09:47:17 AM
There are 18,000 different police departments in the US with over 700,000 officers

of that white officers number about 35%, Hispanic about 43% and Blacks about 12%

This isnt something where flipping a switch instantly filters to all police agencies

The policies and procedures for our police departments come from the population surrounding that

particular police agency

One police agency may have a lot of problems and another might not

for these reasons any real change can only come from some type of federal review commission

established to guide individual police agencies

anyway thats my 2 cents worth
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 06, 2020, 09:56:06 AM
We have a large number of posts on the stream thread dealing with this police stuff. Can we keep it there please?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 06, 2020, 10:01:52 AM
you got it boss Im done anyway cause its a problem with no answer
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 06, 2020, 10:04:20 AM
Two huge COVID-19 studies are retracted after scientists sound alarms


https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/sns-nyt-coronavirus-hydroxychloroquine-20200605-mbljonusnbh7pjcyuqv2g5qpge-story.html (https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/sns-nyt-coronavirus-hydroxychloroquine-20200605-mbljonusnbh7pjcyuqv2g5qpge-story.html)


The studies, published in renowned scientific journals, produced astounding results and altered the course of research into the coronavirus pandemic.

One undercut President Donald Trump’s claim that certain antimalarial drugs cure COVID-19, the illness caused by the virus, concluding that the medications in fact were dangerous to patients. The other found that some blood pressure drugs did not increase the risk of COVID-19 and might even be protective.

Both studies were led by a professor at Harvard, and both depended on a huge international database of patient medical records that few experts had ever heard of.

But on Thursday, the studies were retracted by the scientific journals in which they had appeared, The New England Journal of Medicine and The Lancet, because the authors could not verify the data on which the results depended.

The retractions may breathe new life into the antimalarial drugs hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, relentlessly promoted by Trump as a remedy for COVID-19 despite a lack of evidence. On Wednesday, after the journals noted concerns about the studies, the World Health Organization announced that it would resume trials of the medications.


But the retractions also raise troubling questions about the state of scientific research as the pandemic spreads. Thousands of papers are being rushed to online sites and journals with little or no peer review, and critics fear long-held standards of even the most discerning journals are eroding as they face pressure to rapidly vet and disseminate new scientific reports.

“It is now clear to me that in my hope to contribute to this research during a time of great need, I did not do enough to ensure that the data source was appropriate for this use,” Dr. Mandeep Mehra, lead author of the two studies, said in a statement to The New York Times.

“For that, and for all the disruptions — both directly and indirectly — I am truly sorry.”

The paper about chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine appeared in late May in The Lancet. Though there had been other hints of side effects associated with the drugs, clinical trials were halted worldwide while alarmed investigators began safety reviews.

But questions arose almost immediately about irregularities in the data and the provenance of the data set used in the analysis as well as in Mehra’s earlier heart study, which had appeared in The New England Journal of Medicine.

The data came from a company called Surgisphere, which claims to have granular patient-level information shared by 1,200 hospitals and health facilities on six continents. The founder and chief executive, Dr. Sapan Desai, was listed as an author on both papers.


Mehra, who is the medical director of the Brigham and Women’s Hospital Heart and Vascular Center in Boston and has authored hundreds of publications, said in a statement that he became involved in the project because he felt a need to contribute to science during the pandemic.




Click on the link above to read more.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 06, 2020, 10:09:43 AM
California is reopening TV and movie production

I wondered just how long they could keep that shut down

good to see it going again

this will make the jobs number jump again for June
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 06, 2020, 10:12:54 AM
we are beginning to see an increase in cases probably due to protesting around the country

while the case count has increased the death count continues to decrease so maybe its not that bad

read an article yesterday that scientists think the virus may have mutated to a weaker version
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 06, 2020, 12:08:55 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 05, 2020, 02:28:13 PM
"I do think that this started as an accident," Sir Richard told the Telegraph, citing a peer-reviewed paper by Professor Angus Dalgleish of St George's Hospital at the University of London, and the Norwegian virologist Birger Sorensen.



6-1  Israeli geneticist, Dr Ronen Shemesh, who is working on treatment for COVID-19, said in his opinion the virus was more likely created in a laboratory than evolved naturally in nature.

“There are many reasons to believe that the COVID-19 generating SARS-CoV-2 was generated in a lab.  Most probably by methods of genetic engineering,” he said. 

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/coronavirus/scientists-say-covid19-cooked-up-in-lab/news-story/242c5f9fd14f162dea67f166bcabd985




An unknown scientist in Israel, in his *opinion,* said that it was *likely* created, *most probably*.

Color me convinced.  Obviously this invalidates the staggering evidence against this theory.

In other news, I found a guy in Lichtenstein that believes Jonathan Taylor was most likely genetically engineered and escaped from a lab.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 06, 2020, 12:17:02 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 06, 2020, 10:12:54 AM
we are beginning to see an increase in cases probably due to protesting around the country

while the case count has increased the death count continues to decrease so maybe its not that bad

read an article yesterday that scientists think the virus may have mutated to a weaker version
Even if this is true, which is questionable, the original strain still exists.

Inevitably we will get mutations in the virus, although I read somewhere that coronavirus doesn't mutate as fast as the flu virus does.  Typically mutations are weaker than the original strain, but not always.  Hopefully a weaker strain offers protection against the original.  This would help build herd immunity, and possibly advance work on a vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 06, 2020, 12:29:52 PM
Here is the article I mentioned above

would be nice if true

https://elemental.medium.com/could-the-coronavirus-be-weakening-as-it-spreads-928f2ad33f89 (https://elemental.medium.com/could-the-coronavirus-be-weakening-as-it-spreads-928f2ad33f89)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 06, 2020, 01:15:53 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 06, 2020, 12:29:52 PM
Here is the article I mentioned above

would be nice if true

https://elemental.medium.com/could-the-coronavirus-be-weakening-as-it-spreads-928f2ad33f89 (https://elemental.medium.com/could-the-coronavirus-be-weakening-as-it-spreads-928f2ad33f89)
medium.com is basically a blog.  They are infamous for spreading misinformation because, well, you can post anything you want.

The article itself only talks about the experiences of two doctors in Italy that think maybe it isn't so bad as it was a two months ago.

Well, duh.  Italy has been under strict social distancing rules and there are way less cases now then there were two months ago.

I'm not saying that the virus hasn't mutated, but this article is ridiculous.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 06, 2020, 01:22:13 PM
I don't think distancing would account for there being a smaller percentage of serious cases, if that is the case.  It could also relate to the newly infected being younger on average as the elderly take serious precautions.  The link didn't link for me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 06, 2020, 02:00:41 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 06, 2020, 01:15:53 PM
medium.com is basically a blog.  They are infamous for spreading misinformation because, well, you can post anything you want.

The article itself only talks about the experiences of two doctors in Italy that think maybe it isn't so bad as it was a two months ago.

Well, duh.  Italy has been under strict social distancing rules and there are way less cases now then there were two months ago.

I'm not saying that the virus hasn't mutated, but this article is ridiculous.
no need to be so condescending a simple not documented enough would have done

and the article is not ridiculous
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 06, 2020, 02:17:07 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 06, 2020, 01:15:53 PM
medium.com is basically a blog.  They are infamous for spreading misinformation because, well, you can post anything you want.
Agreed. It’s a giant propaganda bs rag. Which is why I found it hilarious when Barack Obama posted an article there the other day about civil rights and fixing police brutality and CNN immediately has an orgasm.

The guy was in office for 8 years and didn’t do a god damn thing to even try to fix the problem when he actually had power. Anything he says should be laughed at.

The benevolent Nobel peace prize winner who took us from 2 wars to 7, destroyed Libya and turned it into a failed state where slavery auctions openly exist, armed ISIS/Al-Qaeda off-shoots, ran an illegal gun running scheme into Mexico, expanded the security state and state spying powers to levels W. could only wet dream of, ramped up drone strikes by something like 4,000%, had secret kill lists in order to kill people he deemed enemies of the state- with no due process- including a handful of American citizens- suspended habeaus corpus, cracked down on protesters in North Dakota & Occupy Wall Street, prosecuted more whistleblowers and journalists under the espionage act than every single previous president combined, and oh yeah let’s not forget was the deporter in chief.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 06, 2020, 02:44:09 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 06, 2020, 02:00:41 PM
no need to be so condescending a simple not documented enough would have done

and the article is not ridiculous
I didn’t mean to be condescending.  

The article is ridiculou. It doesn’t even earn its “S”. Much like Rutger. 

In all seriousness, this quarantine is taking a toll on me. I’m turning into an old man yelling at clouds. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 06, 2020, 02:47:09 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 06, 2020, 02:17:07 PM
Agreed. It’s a giant propaganda bs rag. Which is why I found it hilarious when Barack Obama posted an article there the other day about civil rights and fixing police brutality and CNN immediately has an orgasm.

The guy was in office for 8 years and didn’t do a god damn thing to even try to fix the problem when he actually had power. Anything he says should be laughed at.

The benevolent Nobel peace prize winner who took us from 2 wars to 7, destroyed Libya and turned it into a failed state where slavery auctions openly exist, armed ISIS/Al-Qaeda off-shoots, ran an illegal gun running scheme into Mexico, expanded the security state and state spying powers to levels W. could only wet dream of, ramped up drone strikes by something like 4,000%, had secret kill lists in order to kill people he deemed enemies of the state- with no due process- including a handful of American citizens- suspended habeaus corpus, cracked down on protesters in North Dakota & Occupy Wall Street, prosecuted more whistleblowers and journalists under the espionage act than every single previous president combined, and oh yeah let’s not forget was the deporter in chief.
I have a conservative friend that thinks Obama was the best republican president ever. Haha

Medium.com was created by the founders of twitter for people that wanted to post more than 41 characters.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 06, 2020, 03:21:43 PM
In other news, we were just out to the liquor store and Kroger.  We pass by a small shopping mall which in weeks past had nary a car in the lot, today it was full.  Kroger was very busy.  The liquor store had a line waiting to get inside, but we hit at a good time.  Traffic looked normal to me.  More than half the people wear masks, but it's not 80%.

The last two days have ticked up a bit in new cases.  The protests have been peaceful for a week now, no arrests made last night and the curfew apparently has been lifted.

We're "back to normal" nearly I'd opine, I imagine a lot of office workers are still WFH.

Our local farmer's market is back in the park, which was nice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 06, 2020, 04:41:25 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 06, 2020, 02:47:09 PM
I have a conservative friend that thinks Obama was the best republican president ever. Haha

Medium.com was created by the founders of twitter for people that wanted to post more than 41 characters. 
Lol. That’s probably true. Obama had more in common Reagan than FDR. He was basically a republican, even his healthcare plan was taken from a republican.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 06, 2020, 04:47:54 PM
The virus may or may not becoming weaker but something is causing the down trending of deaths which cases are increasing

maybe after the full affect of the protesting happens this may not be the case who knows
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 06, 2020, 05:01:57 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 06, 2020, 04:47:54 PM
The virus may or may not becoming weaker but something is causing the down trending of deaths which cases are increasing

maybe after the full affect of the protesting happens this may not be the case who knows
The down trending of deaths may be due to the virus already killing most of those who were most at risk for death. The already sick and the old. 43% of COVID deaths in total nation wide were nursing home patients. The average age of a nursing home resident is 80. So, yeah.

The vast majority of people who come into contact with this virus are just fine- and something like 99.6% who are infected do not die. And most people have either no symptoms at all or they have minor symptoms and are better in a few days.

Most of the protestors are young. They probably won’t get sick but they might get old people around them sick. Probably might be for the best for the old to continue a quarantine. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 06, 2020, 05:02:06 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 06, 2020, 12:08:55 PM
An unknown scientist in Israel, in his *opinion,* said that it was *likely* created, *most probably*.

Color me convinced.  Obviously this invalidates the staggering evidence against this theory.

In other news, I found a guy in Lichtenstein that believes Jonathan Taylor was most likely genetically engineered and escaped from a lab.
Oh really it's out of the realm because you think so.You are known internationally in this field?.Jonah Salk,Pasture,Curie,were unkown once.These are the same so called people that were filmed  welding doors shut on their own citizens.If they had the means there is no doubt in my mind they'd find the way.I'm talking the CCP not the people
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 06, 2020, 05:04:13 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 06, 2020, 04:41:25 PM
Lol. That’s probably true. Obama had more in common Reagan than FDR. He was basically a republican, even his healthcare plan was taken from a republican.
How about the Phone Plan?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 06, 2020, 05:15:50 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 06, 2020, 05:04:13 PM
How about the Phone Plan?
You mean a modernized version of Reagan’s Universal Service Fund? Lol. Another idea borrowed from a republican. That programs budget might’ve been a few billions which was PEANUTS compared too....

Obama’s ever increasing wars & military budgets, or what about his corporate/bank bail outs in 2008-2009, or the parting gift of bailing out private equity landlords in his final days of office. 

Democrats/Republicans are virtually the same thing. And Obama was basically a Reagan republican. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 06, 2020, 06:44:08 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 06, 2020, 05:02:06 PM
Oh really it's out of the realm because you think so.You are known internationally in this field?.Jonah Salk,Pasture,Curie,were unkown once.These are the same so called people that were filmed  welding doors shut on their own citizens.If they had the means there is no doubt in my mind they'd find the way.I'm talking the CCP not the people
Oh, no, this guy's conjecture totally changed my mind.  All he had to overcome was a mound of scientific evidence compiled an analyzed by experts. Obviously his conviction was real.  The way he said, "most likely" was with SUCH FORCE.

Really, I don't understand why anyone wouldn't be swayed by him.  Oh, and the retired MI6 guy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 06, 2020, 07:49:37 PM
There is zero evidence that this thing was bio-engineered in a lab.

There is however some eye opening circumstantial evidence that this thing occurs in nature and a bat that they were conducting experiments on might've contaminated a lab and it escaped a lab by accident.

There is a huge difference between the two, and I see it keep getting conflated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 06, 2020, 08:43:03 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 06, 2020, 06:44:08 PM
Oh, no, this guy's conjecture totally changed my mind.  All he had to overcome was a mound of scientific evidence compiled an analyzed by experts. Obviously his conviction was real.  The way he said, "most likely" was with SUCH FORCE.

Really, I don't understand why anyone wouldn't be swayed by him.  Oh, and the retired MI6 guy.
Dr Shemesh, who has a PhD in Genetics and Molecular Biology from the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, and over 21 years of experience in the field of drug discovery and development, said it is even “more unlikely” that this insertion happened in exactly the right place of the cleavage site of the spike protein - which is where it would need to occur to make the virus more infectious.

Flinders University Professor Nikolai Petrovsky says COVID-19 is “exquisitely adapted to infect humans”.
“We really don’t know where this virus came from - that’s the truth. The two possibilities is that it was a chance transmission of a virus...the other possibility is that it was an accidental release of the virus from a laboratory,” he said.

“One of the possibilities is that an animal host was infected by two coronaviruses at the same time and COVID-19. The same process can happen in a petri-dish.

So your conjecture is so much more dialed in than theirs,Gotcha.Well start your own blog with you medical research background and I'll log in every morning for the latest on the fore front to fighting  Covid.What if it came out it was manufactured again these people welded their own citizens doors shut.A lot of shade being thrown from the CCP.They haven't changed a damn thing from Chairman Mao until now

They are right about this
 Even the possibility that a non-genetically-engineered precursor could have adapted to humans while being studied in a laboratory should be considered, regardless of how likely or unlikely.”

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 07, 2020, 12:37:19 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 06, 2020, 04:41:25 PM
Lol. That’s probably true. Obama had more in common Reagan than FDR. He was basically a republican, even his healthcare plan was taken from a republican.
Wow, dude.  Far out.
As a Reagan fan since 1968, I have to say that Barack Obama resembled Ronald Reagan in only one area--the ability to deliver a speech well.
Reagan was an opponent of "socialized medicine" from at least as early as the early 1960s.  He never endorsed anything remotely resembling ObamaCare.
Obama may have ended up a disappointment from a liberal perspective because he used all his political capital to get ObamaCare rammed through without a single Republican vote.  But that cost him the House in the 2010 mid-terms, and he could only impose big-government solutions after that through executive orders and threats to veto budgets.
So, as I said, he might have disappointed liberals, but it wasn't because he didn't try to be a bigger taxer-and-spender.  He did the best he could to deliver on his very liberal 2008 campaign rhetoric, but the GOP House blocked him after his first two years.

I was disappointed in him because he wasn't able to celebrate, or help black Americans celebrate, the fact that America had elected a black man as POTUS.  And not just any black man, but little-known one without any major accomplishments but with a sketchy past.  He had an opportunity to really do something there, and he never really tried.

Maybe it was more than he could do to say something good about our country.  Another difference from Ronald Reagan, who celebrated America at every opportunity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 07, 2020, 02:33:47 AM
Quote
Wow, dude.  Far out.
As a Reagan fan since 1968, I have to say that Barack Obama resembled Ronald Reagan in only one area--the ability to deliver a speech well.
Reagan was an opponent of "socialized medicine" from at least as early as the early 1960s.  He never endorsed anything remotely resembling ObamaCare.
Obama may have ended up a disappointment from a liberal perspective because he used all his political capital to get ObamaCare rammed through without a single Republican vote.  But that cost him the House in the 2010 mid-terms, and he could only impose big-government solutions after that through executive orders and threats to veto budgets.
So, as I said, he might have disappointed liberals, but it wasn't because he didn't try to be a bigger taxer-and-spender.  He did the best he could to deliver on his very liberal 2008 campaign rhetoric, but the GOP House blocked him after his first two years.

I was disappointed in him because he wasn't able to celebrate, or help black Americans celebrate, the fact that America had elected a black man as POTUS.  And not just any black man, but little-known one without any major accomplishments but with a sketchy past.  He had an opportunity to really do something there, and he never really tried.

Maybe it was more than he could do to say something good about our country.  Another difference from Ronald Reagan, who celebrated America at every opportunity.

Obama says himself that he's most like Reagan than any previous President. His corporatism, foreign policy positions, pro stance on "trade" deals (really just investor rights agreements), tax cuts for the wealthy (he made W's tax cuts permanent), deficit spending and military budget increases - all falls right in lock-step with Reagan.

Obama was hardly a liberal. Anyone trying to argue that is just parroting the slick BS persona Obama put out to the public and is spewing rhetoric and not looking at the guys actual record- which was horrible.

We don't have socialized medicine. That's not what ObamaCare is. Not even close. And again- it's a nationwide adoption of a REPUBLICAN state plan. And again, it's not socialized medicine- it's a far cry from that. It was a pathetic half-measure that didn't do anything to address any of the real problems with the US healthcare system.

I don't think ObamaCare cost the Dems the House in 2010. I think the cratering economic depression caused them to lose the House. People tend to vote with their wallets. If they don't see their economic situation getting any better under one party they go for the other party.

I'm more disappointed in the guy because his record was horrendous. Not because he didn't celebrate enough.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 07, 2020, 03:07:25 AM
It's incredible.
If Obama specifically helped black people, he'd be attacked for it.
He doesn't specifically help black people....attacked for it.

Easy conclusion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 07, 2020, 03:19:24 AM
AZ cases have skyrocketed, and it's from the state opening back up.  It'll increase further from Memorial Day and again, due to the protests. 
Banner health, the state's leading health care system, has reached capacity on ventilators.  It's going to get much worse in the coming weeks. 
Obviously.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 07, 2020, 07:55:36 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 07, 2020, 02:33:47 AM
****** says himself that he's most like ****** than any previous President. 
A very good liar, who cut his political teeth in Chicago.

That's all I'll say on the matter. Probably all I need to say.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 07, 2020, 08:04:19 AM
https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/)

Georgia was the first state to reopen (of those that shut down), April 23.  New cases have not shy rocketed.  They are trending up a bit over the past three days.

I don't think reopening is the simple explanation as to why cases are sky rocketing in other places.  This might not be some simple single variable relationship.

Of course, I tend to be circumspect in my opinions and not absolute about things.

                         New cases  7 day average


(https://i.imgur.com/Siuu0Ln.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 07, 2020, 08:25:29 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 07, 2020, 03:19:24 AM
AZ cases have skyrocketed, and it's from the state opening back up.  It'll increase further from Memorial Day and again, due to the protests. 
Banner health, the state's leading health care system, has reached capacity on ventilators.  It's going to get much worse in the coming weeks. 
Obviously.
I just looked at the data, and the number of cases has spiked. So has the number of tests. The percent positive rate has dropped to 6 percent, from as high as 20 percent, early on.

So, the cases has spiked for sure, but most certainly not from opening back up.

The percentage of ICU bed use has remained in the 65-70% range since March.

Ventilator usage is at 30 percent capacity.

I'm not sure what you are looking at. Try this.

https://azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php

 (https://azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 07, 2020, 08:29:57 AM
It is facile of course to seek simple single variable explanations that conform to one's political views.  Often, the situations are much more complex and textured.

It's like blaming everything on one Supreme Court decision.  It's simple and easy to remember, but almost certainly wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 07, 2020, 08:52:48 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 07, 2020, 08:29:57 AM
It is facile of course to seek simple single variable explanations that conform to one's political views.  Often, the situations are much more complex and textured.

It's like blaming everything on one Supreme Court decision.  It's simple and easy to remember, but almost certainly wrong.
Amen CD
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 07, 2020, 10:48:21 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 07, 2020, 07:55:36 AM
A very good liar, who cut his political teeth in Chicago.

That's all I'll say on the matter. Probably all I need to say.
He might be the greatest liar I’ve ever seen. He was a slick sob like Bill C. The packaging and messaging were great, which allowed him to get away with some truly horrendous shit with zero pushback.

W, Trump, Hillary, Biden- terrible liars. Which is why the pushback on them came so easy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on June 07, 2020, 01:11:48 PM
I'm getting more bullish about full-ish football stadiums. So that's a plus. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 07, 2020, 01:54:04 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on June 07, 2020, 01:11:48 PM
I'm getting more bullish about full-ish football stadiums. So that's a plus.

Me too.  The crowds at the protests ran the experiment for us.  Now we wait.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 07, 2020, 05:14:52 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 06, 2020, 08:43:03 PM
Dr Shemesh, who has a PhD in Genetics and Molecular Biology from the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, and over 21 years of experience in the field of drug discovery and development, said it is even “more unlikely” that this insertion happened in exactly the right place of the cleavage site of the spike protein - which is where it would need to occur to make the virus more infectious.

Flinders University Professor Nikolai Petrovsky says COVID-19 is “exquisitely adapted to infect humans”.
“We really don’t know where this virus came from - that’s the truth. The two possibilities is that it was a chance transmission of a virus...the other possibility is that it was an accidental release of the virus from a laboratory,” he said.

“One of the possibilities is that an animal host was infected by two coronaviruses at the same time and COVID-19. The same process can happen in a petri-dish.

So your conjecture is so much more dialed in than theirs,Gotcha.Well start your own blog with you medical research background and I'll log in every morning for the latest on the fore front to fighting  Covid.What if it came out it was manufactured again these people welded their own citizens doors shut.A lot of shade being thrown from the CCP.They haven't changed a damn thing from Chairman Mao until now

They are right about this
Even the possibility that a non-genetically-engineered precursor could have adapted to humans while being studied in a laboratory should be considered, regardless of how likely or unlikely.”



Here's the deal.  You could probably find a geologist somewhere that thinks the earth is flat.  One crazy opinion does not overturn mountains of knowledge and science.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 07, 2020, 05:17:25 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 06, 2020, 05:02:06 PM
Oh really it's out of the realm because you think so.You are known internationally in this field?.Jonah Salk,Pasture,Curie,were unkown once.These are the same so called people that were filmed  welding doors shut on their own citizens.If they had the means there is no doubt in my mind they'd find the way.I'm talking the CCP not the people
Again, no actual evidence that this virus was genetically engineered.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 07, 2020, 05:23:22 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on June 07, 2020, 01:11:48 PM
I'm getting more bullish about full-ish football stadiums. So that's a plus.

I've been watching the numbers like a hawk to try and figure this out.

I am so glad I don't have to be the one to make the decision.  Seems like a no-win situation.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 07, 2020, 05:27:48 PM
With 2 of 3 reports in, we're at 539 in GA today, which should end up 750-800.  That is four days of up.  It's not a huge surge, but it's starting to look real.  At best things are flat, which I guess is sort of "OK", or better than it could be.  Hospitalization figures slowly trend down.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 07, 2020, 05:30:39 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 07, 2020, 05:14:52 PM
Here's the deal.  You could probably find a geologist somewhere that thinks the earth is flat.  One crazy opinion does not overturn mountains of knowledge and science.


 I thought they quit making Iron City.It's not one crazy opinion - it's just opposite of yours.Which of course is the barometer by which accuracy is judged.And 847 posted it -
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 07, 2020, 05:38:52 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 07, 2020, 05:27:48 PM
With 2 of 3 reports in, we're at 539 in GA today, which should end up 750-800.  That is four days of up.  It's not a huge surge, but it's starting to look real.  At best things are flat, which I guess is sort of "OK", or better than it could be.  Hospitalization figures slowly trend down.




Id wager half of the positives are from the Atlanta area

are the protesters still protesting
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 07, 2020, 06:14:16 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 07, 2020, 05:30:39 PM
I thought they quit making Iron City.It's not one crazy opinion - it's just opposite of yours.Which of course is the barometer by which accuracy is judged.And 847 posted it -
No, you're wrong.  This isn't my opinion. Experts in the field and multiple scientific studies present quite a bit of evidence this was a naturally occurring mutation.

There is zero evidence otherwise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on June 07, 2020, 06:55:24 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 07, 2020, 05:38:52 PM
Id wager half of the positives are from the Atlanta area

are the protesters still protesting
That would be a safe bet as more than half the state's population is in the Atlanta metro area.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 07, 2020, 07:02:03 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 07, 2020, 05:27:48 PM
With 2 of 3 reports in, we're at 539 in GA today, which should end up 750-800.  That is four days of up.  It's not a huge surge, but it's starting to look real.  At best things are flat, which I guess is sort of "OK", or better than it could be.  Hospitalization figures slowly trend down.




As you know, the point was to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed, not to eradicate the virus, which was never going to happen and is a completely impossible goal.

As long as hospitalizations aren't skyrocketing, you're doing what you're supposed to do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 07, 2020, 07:04:12 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 07, 2020, 01:54:04 PM
Me too.  The crowds at the protests ran the experiment for us.  Now we wait.
The crowds at the protests completely blew social distancing out of the water.  Now, even in liberal Austin, the majority are starting to say screw it. 

In every red state, the lockdowns are effectively over.  And in some blue ones, too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 07, 2020, 07:33:53 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 07, 2020, 06:14:16 PM
No, you're wrong.  This isn't my opinion. Experts in the field and multiple scientific studies present quite a bit of evidence this was a naturally occurring mutation.

There is zero evidence otherwise.
Bullshit,prove it - you can't you just went down the rabbit hole of of smug rhetoric with blanket statements.You follow the numbers.Well lets just make you the director of the CDC/NIH.Not saying that it's a fact it's certainly plausible.ask the British what happened to Russian double agents,ex-pats living in the UK.It most certainly possible behind the bamboo curtain,with out anybody in the west knowing absolutes.Not like China is letting their scientists with any knowledge out of the country
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 07, 2020, 07:54:26 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 06, 2020, 10:12:54 AM
we are beginning to see an increase in cases probably due to protesting around the country

while the case count has increased the death count continues to decrease so maybe its not that bad

read an article yesterday that scientists think the virus may have mutated to a weaker version
You don't seem to understand the timeline on this.  People aren't protesting and then 2 days later, being diagnosed with COVID.
The uptick in numbers the last few days are from the beginning of Memorial Day weekend.  There's a time-delay to this.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 07, 2020, 08:02:18 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 07, 2020, 07:33:53 PM
Bullshit,prove it - you can't you just went down the rabbit hole of of smug rhetoric with blanket statements.You follow the numbers.Well lets just make you the director of the CDC/NIH.Not saying that it's a fact it's certainly plausible.ask the British what happened to Russian double agents,ex-pats living in the UK.It most certainly possible behind the bamboo curtain,with out anybody in the west knowing absolutes.Not like China is letting their scientists with any knowledge out of the country
There's a difference between saying "there is zero evidence of genetic manipulation" and saying "it wasn't deliberately genetically altered", right?

It may someday be proven it was deliberately created in a Chinese lab, but I withhold belief in that proposition until I see evidence. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 07, 2020, 08:06:44 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 07, 2020, 08:02:18 PM
There's a difference between saying "there is zero evidence of genetic manipulation" and saying "it wasn't deliberately genetically altered", right?

It may someday be proven it was deliberately created in a Chinese lab, but I withhold belief in that proposition until I see evidence.
How dare you!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 07, 2020, 08:29:01 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 07, 2020, 07:54:26 PM
You don't seem to understand the timeline on this.  People aren't protesting and then 2 days later, being diagnosed with COVID.
The uptick in numbers the last few days are from the beginning of Memorial Day weekend.  There's a time-delay to this. 
It’s all moot anyway.  What I have learned from reading and watching all of the major news outlets:
you can only spread it if you are protesting the lock down or attending church. 

you can’t spread it if you are protesting racial injustice or lighting a church on fire. 😉
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 07, 2020, 08:37:23 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 07, 2020, 03:07:25 AM
It's incredible.
If Obama specifically helped black people, he'd be attacked for it.
He doesn't specifically help black people....attacked for it.

Easy conclusion.
Of course, what you're responding to is not what I posted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 07, 2020, 08:47:44 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 07, 2020, 02:33:47 AM
Obama says himself that he's most like Reagan than any previous President. His corporatism, foreign policy positions, pro stance on "trade" deals (really just investor rights agreements), tax cuts for the wealthy (he made W's tax cuts permanent), deficit spending and military budget increases - all falls right in lock-step with Reagan.

Obama was hardly a liberal. Anyone trying to argue that is just parroting the slick BS persona Obama put out to the public and is spewing rhetoric and not looking at the guys actual record- which was horrible.

We don't have socialized medicine. That's not what ObamaCare is. Not even close. And again- it's a nationwide adoption of a REPUBLICAN state plan. And again, it's not socialized medicine- it's a far cry from that. It was a pathetic half-measure that didn't do anything to address any of the real problems with the US healthcare system.

I don't think ObamaCare cost the Dems the House in 2010. I think the cratering economic depression caused them to lose the House. People tend to vote with their wallets. If they don't see their economic situation getting any better under one party they go for the other party.

I'm more disappointed in the guy because his record was horrendous. Not because he didn't celebrate enough.
Lots of people have claimed that they were like Reagan.  Lots of people (including Obama) have tried to assume the mantle of Lincoln as well.  It doesn't make them like Reagan or like Lincoln.  Obama was not known for being excessively dedicated to telling the truth.
I honestly don't know that you mean when you use terms like "liberal" and "conservative."  And I can't tell which you hate more.
I didn't say that we had socialized medicine.  I said that Reagan was against "socialized medicine" (note the quotation marks).  He was against real-life Medicare and he would have been against real-life ObamaCare too.
What you think about the 2010 election is different than what I think about it.  We can't both be right, and we might both be wrong.  I'll just note that you offer no evidence for your thinking, but I'll offer a bit for mine.  The Tea Party was the driving force in the 2010 election, and its rhetoric was about ObamaCare far more than it was about the state of the economy.  I went to a couple of Tea Party rallies, and they didn't mention the economy at all.
We'll just have to be disappointed in him for different reasons.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 07, 2020, 09:18:32 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 07, 2020, 07:54:26 PM
You don't seem to understand the timeline on this.  People aren't protesting and then 2 days later, being diagnosed with COVID.
The uptick in numbers the last few days are from the beginning of Memorial Day weekend.  There's a time-delay to this. 
wrong - virus incubation period averages 5 to 6 days

the protests started May 26th which was 10 days ago

do the math
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 07, 2020, 09:38:13 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 07, 2020, 08:02:18 PM
There's a difference between saying "there is zero evidence of genetic manipulation" and saying "it wasn't deliberately genetically altered", right?

It may someday be proven it was deliberately created in a Chinese lab, but I withhold belief in that proposition until I see evidence.
That's a reasonable response,but if there are man made cures there could be man made curses.In 1939 who would have thought by 1945 there would be jet propulsion and an ICBM in the form of the V-2s from a nation of 75 million?Yet that same nation had a an assembly line for killing innocents wholesale.What could be expected to from a country of 1.4 billion today with access to some of the same technology we possess
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 07, 2020, 09:39:22 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 07, 2020, 07:54:26 PM
You don't seem to understand the timeline on this.  People aren't protesting and then 2 days later, being diagnosed with COVID.
The uptick in numbers the last few days are from the beginning of Memorial Day weekend.  There's a time-delay to this. 
The protests started over a week ago.  It's time to start seeing an uptick, if it happens.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 07, 2020, 09:40:03 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 07, 2020, 08:06:44 PM
How dare you!
Or how dare they
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 07, 2020, 09:40:16 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 07, 2020, 09:38:13 PM
That's a reasonable response,but if there are man made cures there could be man made curses.In 1939 who would have thought by 1945 there would be jet propulsion and an ICBM in the form of the V-2s from a nation of 75 million?Yet that same nation had a an assembly line for killing innocents wholesale.What could be expected to from a country of 1.4 billion today with access to some of the same technology we possess
The V2 was not an ICBM, FYI.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 07, 2020, 09:51:23 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 07, 2020, 06:14:16 PM
No, you're wrong.  This isn't my opinion. Experts in the field and multiple scientific studies present quite a bit of evidence this was a naturally occurring mutation.

There is zero evidence otherwise.
It's certainly plausible Mr Director. Do you really think the Wuhan welcome wagon will swing open the great wall gates and let us have a look see at their biologigical warfare operations.And do you think if our Government knew it was likely they'd tell this country that has already hamstrung itself by the very people who could spread one around by more rioting- sounds reasonable
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 07, 2020, 09:55:39 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 07, 2020, 09:40:16 PM
The V2 was not an ICBM, FYI.

It was a rudementary one a precursor on the cusp.Either way who'd thunk
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 07, 2020, 09:56:33 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 07, 2020, 09:39:22 PM
The protests started over a week ago.  It's time to start seeing an uptick, if it happens.
How dare you
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 07, 2020, 10:01:33 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 07, 2020, 09:55:39 PM
It was a rudementary one a precursor on the cusp.Either way who'd thunk
It was a best an IRBM.  And it could not have listed a first gen A bomb at all.

An Ohio class sub has 24 SLBMs,  each of which could carry 10 warheads, each 50 X more powerful than Nagasaki.

And we have ten of them ....

One sub, 240 Nagasakis times 50.  Ouch.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 07, 2020, 10:06:26 PM
We should explode one of those and measure - i'm not taking their word for it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 07, 2020, 10:39:34 PM
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mP3bcPvgIG8
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 07, 2020, 10:49:31 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 07, 2020, 09:38:13 PM
That's a reasonable response,but if there are man made cures there could be man made curses.In 1939 who would have thought by 1945 there would be jet propulsion and an ICBM in the form of the V-2s from a nation of 75 million?Yet that same nation had a an assembly line for killing innocents wholesale.What could be expected to from a country of 1.4 billion today with access to some of the same technology we possess
So you're saying you believe it's man-made? Or you just consider that in the realm of possibilities? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 07, 2020, 10:56:00 PM
The people who think it's man-made want it to be man-made.  The time to believe something is when the evidence exists to believe it.  This is so obvious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 07, 2020, 10:59:35 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 07, 2020, 09:51:23 PM
It's certainly plausible Mr Director. Do you really think the Wuhan welcome wagon will swing open the great wall gates and let us have a look see at their biologigical warfare operations.And do you think if our Government knew it was likely they'd tell this country that has already hamstrung itself by the very people who could spread one around by more rioting- sounds reasonable
China is behaving exactly how our leadership would if the roles were reversed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 07, 2020, 11:09:34 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 07, 2020, 09:51:23 PM
It's certainly plausible Mr Director. Do you really think the Wuhan welcome wagon will swing open the great wall gates and let us have a look see at their biologigical warfare operations.And do you think if our Government knew it was likely they'd tell this country that has already hamstrung itself by the very people who could spread one around by more rioting- sounds reasonable
Actually, yes.

They work very closely with the Galveston National Laboratory, along with many other labs throughout North America and Europe.In fact, all of the Chinese scientists there were trained by American Scientists.  They uploaded the genome of the virus for public access.

Not that any of this matters.  You've got the conspiracy theory bug, and there's no amount of logic or data that will likely change your mind.

With that said, we don't need to make up conspiracy theories here.  China was extremely negligent and had been warned many times that this could happen.   They did absolutely nothing.  It's worse when you consider that SARS was also from China, and very likely ALSO came from bats.  I haven't see any evidence they've done anything to stop another virus from causing yet another outbreak, either.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 07, 2020, 11:36:58 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 07, 2020, 08:47:44 PM
Lots of people have claimed that they were like Reagan.  Lots of people (including Obama) have tried to assume the mantle of Lincoln as well.  It doesn't make them like Reagan or like Lincoln.  Obama was not known for being excessively dedicated to telling the truth.
I honestly don't know that you mean when you use terms like "liberal" and "conservative."  And I can't tell which you hate more.
I didn't say that we had socialized medicine.  I said that Reagan was against "socialized medicine" (note the quotation marks).  He was against real-life Medicare and he would have been against real-life ObamaCare too.
What you think about the 2010 election is different than what I think about it.  We can't both be right, and we might both be wrong.  I'll just note that you offer no evidence for your thinking, but I'll offer a bit for mine.  The Tea Party was the driving force in the 2010 election, and its rhetoric was about ObamaCare far more than it was about the state of the economy.  I went to a couple of Tea Party rallies, and they didn't mention the economy at all.
We'll just have to be disappointed in him for different reasons.
I absolutely believe Reagan would have been pro Obamacare.  Here's why: 

Reagan opposed Medicare for two principal reasons: participation was mandatory, and because Medicare spent scarce taxpayer funds to subsidize coverage for wealthy people who didn’t need the help.

So we can gather from this quote that Reagan probably would have been against the individual mandate, which no longer exists anyway.  However, I think he would have approved of most of it.  Reagan explicitly supported the role of government in subsidizing care for every American who could not otherwise afford it.


Quote from "A Time for Choosing"
“No one in this country should be denied medical care for lack of funds.”

In a speech to the Phoenix chamber of commerce:
“Any person in the United States who requires medical attention and cannot provide for himself should have it provided for him.”

He championed the Kerr-Mills Act of 1960, a law introduced by two Democrats that gave federal money to states with which to provide medical care for the elderly in need. Reagan said that he was “in favor of this bill — and if the money isn’t enough, I think we should put up more.”


In fact, CW, I bet you would also be in favor of 90% of Obamacare provisions.  When this was going into effect it was my job to analyze the potential impact to my employer at the time, so I am very familiar with it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 06:38:09 AM
I was on a cheap high deductible plan at the time and that option went away for me when it passed, cost me a lot of money.  For nothing in my case.

Yesterday's new case number for GA dropped back a bit, so that tends to make the recent upswing look more typical.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 08:16:26 AM
Some study shows the shut down prevented (delayed?) 60 million infections, which might mean 600,000 deaths (give or take).  I could believe that I think.  Another claimed it saved over 3 million lives in Europe.  That one if a bit tougher to believe, but maybe.

Sweden is better on cases but worse on deaths than the US per million pop.  They did distance in Sweden, so it's not as if they did nothing at all.  They are at 465 deaths per million in Sweden.  That rate here would be 152,000 deaths.  If Europe had done what Sweden did with the same results (which is unlikely), they would not have had 3 million deaths.  Spain, Italy, and the UK are worse off in deaths per million than is Sweden.

I don't know why their apparent mortality rate is higher than in the US.  They had fewer tests per capita.  At times, comparisons between countries can be influenced by how numbers are derived and counted.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 08, 2020, 08:57:58 AM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 07, 2020, 11:36:58 PM
I absolutely believe Reagan would have been pro Obamacare.  Here's why: 

Reagan opposed Medicare for two principal reasons: participation was mandatory, and because Medicare spent scarce taxpayer funds to subsidize coverage for wealthy people who didn’t need the help.

So we can gather from this quote that Reagan probably would have been against the individual mandate, which no longer exists anyway.  However, I think he would have approved of most of it.  Reagan explicitly supported the role of government in subsidizing care for every American who could not otherwise afford it.


Quote from "A Time for Choosing"
“No one in this country should be denied medical care for lack of funds.”

In a speech to the Phoenix chamber of commerce:
“Any person in the United States who requires medical attention and cannot provide for himself should have it provided for him.”

He championed the Kerr-Mills Act of 1960, a law introduced by two Democrats that gave federal money to states with which to provide medical care for the elderly in need. Reagan said that he was “in favor of this bill — and if the money isn’t enough, I think we should put up more.”


In fact, CW, I bet you would also be in favor of 90% of Obamacare provisions.  When this was going into effect it was my job to analyze the potential impact to my employer at the time, so I am very familiar with it.


You would know more than me by far. But being in banking this is what I can tell you about Obama care:  It was unanimously hated by all the business owners, especially the small ones, because it prevented them from hiring people and in many cases made them reduce their staff. Also on a personal note my costs went up substantially and my coverage went down substantially, not that my own experience is necessarily how I would judge something like that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 09:03:32 AM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 07, 2020, 06:14:16 PM
No, you're wrong.  This isn't my opinion. Experts in the field and multiple scientific studies present quite a bit of evidence this was a naturally occurring mutation.

There is zero evidence otherwise.
There are experts who do think otherwise. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 09:06:39 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 07, 2020, 09:18:32 PM
wrong - virus incubation period averages 5 to 6 days

the protests started May 26th which was 10 days ago

do the math
That's a lot to ask.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 09:08:58 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 07, 2020, 10:59:35 PM
China is behaving exactly how our leadership would if the roles were reversed.
Maybe you could move there, and let us know for sure? All in the name of research, of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 09:15:02 AM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 07, 2020, 11:36:58 PM
When this was going into effect it was my job to analyze the potential impact to my employer at the time, so I am very familiar with it.


I used to provide healthcare to all of my employees and their families, 100 percent paid by my company.

Now that the premiums have quadrupled (they tripled at first), I only provide for the employee, and they also have to contribute.

They didn't like it, and I didn't either. I just told them that the changes were the result of a terrible new law.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 09:15:53 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 08, 2020, 08:57:58 AM
You would know more than me by far. But being in banking this is what I can tell you about Obama care:  It was unanimously hated by all the business owners, especially the small ones, because it prevented them from hiring people and in many cases made them reduce their staff. Also on a personal note my costs went up substantially and my coverage went down substantially, not that my own experience is necessarily how I would judge something like that.
But, you get to keep your doctor!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 08, 2020, 09:17:14 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 09:15:53 AM
But, you get to keep your doctor!!
Um... lol, that turned out to be not true for me. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 09:23:23 AM
It's a bit ironic that both political parties want to replace Obamacare, with something.  I think Biden only wants to change it.

Stock market futures are mostly higher again today.

The next week might tell us a lot about where we're at on the virus front.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 09:25:15 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 08, 2020, 09:17:14 AM
Um... lol, that turned out to be not true for me.
Just another of many lies.

But, when he said it, he was so eloquent and emphatic!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 09:50:52 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/lockdowns-prevented-nearly-5-million-us-coronavirus-cases-study-says.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/lockdowns-prevented-nearly-5-million-us-coronavirus-cases-study-says.html)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 08, 2020, 10:37:21 AM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 07, 2020, 11:36:58 PM
I absolutely believe Reagan would have been pro Obamacare.  Here's why: 

Reagan opposed Medicare for two principal reasons: participation was mandatory, and because Medicare spent scarce taxpayer funds to subsidize coverage for wealthy people who didn’t need the help.

So we can gather from this quote that Reagan probably would have been against the individual mandate, which no longer exists anyway.  However, I think he would have approved of most of it.  Reagan explicitly supported the role of government in subsidizing care for every American who could not otherwise afford it.


Quote from "A Time for Choosing"
“No one in this country should be denied medical care for lack of funds.”

In a speech to the Phoenix chamber of commerce:
“Any person in the United States who requires medical attention and cannot provide for himself should have it provided for him.”

He championed the Kerr-Mills Act of 1960, a law introduced by two Democrats that gave federal money to states with which to provide medical care for the elderly in need. Reagan said that he was “in favor of this bill — and if the money isn’t enough, I think we should put up more.”


In fact, CW, I bet you would also be in favor of 90% of Obamacare provisions.  When this was going into effect it was my job to analyze the potential impact to my employer at the time, so I am very familiar with it.
Hmmm.  I will have to think about your points.
ObamaCare did not help me any.  My costs went up.  I realize that that doesn't necessarily make it bad policy.
The individual mandate was the worst thing about it.  Suddenly, the federal government was making its citizens purchase a product that they didn't necessarily want or need as the cost of being an American citizen.  IMO, that was wrong on principle.
And, IMO, it was wrong when SCOTUS decided that it was not a mandate but merely a tax.  I think that John Roberts caved on that for political reasons.  A different Justice Roberts, first name Owen, in the 1937 case of West Coast Hotel v. Parrish, reversed his own previous vote in a similar case.  It was perceived to have been an attempt to defuse the appeal of FDR's "court-packing plan."  A humorist called it "the switch in time that saved nine."
Another reason that I opposed it was that it was quite obvious that it was intended as a step toward total government control of health-care insurance.  A step toward "single-payer," as Obama and others admitted at times when they didn't think they were on camera.
So, as I saw it then, and still do, it was a bad policy and a dishonest policy in that it was not intended to fix problems but rather to pave the way for even more government involvement.
Now, without the individual mandate, it is just yet another federal program that we can't pay for and is digging us deeper and deeper into national debt.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 08, 2020, 10:38:29 AM
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on June 07, 2020, 10:39:34 PM
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mP3bcPvgIG8
I like this picture.

(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/3f/58/03/3f5803b77a9b8a44fa17b214f81e0747.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 08, 2020, 10:39:56 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 07, 2020, 10:56:00 PM
The people who think it's man-made want it to be man-made.  The time to believe something is when the evidence exists to believe it.  This is so obvious.
We all do that often, on many different issues.
Perhaps you only notice it when the "other" side does it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 08, 2020, 10:44:16 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 08, 2020, 08:57:58 AM
You would know more than me by far. But being in banking this is what I can tell you about Obama care:  It was unanimously hated by all the business owners, especially the small ones, because it prevented them from hiring people and in many cases made them reduce their staff. Also on a personal note my costs went up substantially and my coverage went down substantially, not that my own experience is necessarily how I would judge something like that.
I had forgotten that aspect of it.  Wasn't there a bright line at some point for employers?  More than 50 full-time employees and the employer had to provide medical insurance?  And the response of many was to cut back on the number of full-time employees, or to not go over 50 of them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 08, 2020, 10:47:16 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 08, 2020, 10:44:16 AM
I had forgotten that aspect of it.  Wasn't there a bright line at some point for employers?  More than 50 full-time employees and the employer had to provide medical insurance?  And the response of many was to cut back on the number of full-time employees, or to not go over 50 of them.
Yes. It was 50. I personally knew of dozens of businesses that either cut people or cancelled hiring growth.  And that was just my bank clients in my little corner of the world (SE Michigan at that time)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 08, 2020, 11:17:00 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 07, 2020, 10:59:35 PM
China is behaving exactly how our leadership would if the roles were reversed.
While I’m not a big fan of the US govt, to say this is a big stretch. China is one of the most authoritarian states in the world. They’ve had 1 million of their own citizens in internment camps- without trial- all in order to brainwash them and get them to denounce their religion- all and just because of the religion they practice. 

China disappeared whistleblowers and doctors who were trying to sound the alarm for the coronavirus. They destroyed lab materials and hard drives, and they lied to the WHO and the entire world about the number of its citizens infected and killed by the disease and the mode of transmission of the disease. 

The US has its problems for sure. But what China does and gets away with to its own citizens is just on a completely other level.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2020, 11:41:33 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 08, 2020, 11:17:00 AM
While I’m not a big fan of the US govt, to say this is a big stretch. China is one of the most authoritarian states in the world. They’ve had 1 million of their own citizens in internment camps- without trial- all in order to brainwash them and get them to denounce their religion- all and just because of the religion they practice.

China disappeared whistleblowers and doctors who were trying to sound the alarm for the coronavirus. They destroyed lab materials and hard drives, and they lied to the WHO and the entire world about the number of its citizens infected and killed by the disease and the mode of transmission of the disease.

The US has its problems for sure. But what China does and gets away with to its own citizens is just on a completely other level.
Right, and imagine Trump continuing down this path, untethered.  I believe the only thing stopping him from being Emperor Trump is the media - of whom he is trying to discredit continually, every day.  He fires anyone who disagrees with him in hired positions.  He incites violence against groups he disagrees with.  

I think he's envious of China's power structure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 08, 2020, 11:44:06 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2020, 11:41:33 AM
Right, and imagine Trump continuing down this path, untethered.  I believe the only thing stopping him from being Emperor Trump is the media - of whom he is trying to discredit continually, every day.  He fires anyone who disagrees with him in hired positions.  He incites violence against groups he disagrees with. 

I think he's envious of China's power structure.
It is increasingly difficult to take you seriously. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 11:46:07 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2020, 11:41:33 AM
Right, and imagine Trump continuing down this path, untethered.  I believe the only thing stopping him from being Emperor Trump is the media - of whom he is trying to discredit continually, every day.  He fires anyone who disagrees with him in hired positions.  He incites violence against groups he disagrees with. 

I think he's envious of China's power structure.
speaking of being an Emperor the one thing I really hated about Obamacare was the requirement that I had to get health insurance or be penalized

that was unconstitutional and I dont care that John Roberts says otherwise
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2020, 11:48:01 AM
Yeah, requiring anything seems unAmerican.  
I also hate that you can't just go out into the world and live.  Now, it's basically one step away from homelessness, but if a person wanted to go out into nature and set up shop, using natural materials and living off the land, you can't do that without permits and crap.

It's bizarre.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2020, 11:48:55 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 11:46:07 AM
speaking of being an Emperor the one thing I really hated about Obamacare was the requirement that I had to get health insurance or be penalized

that was unconstitutional and I dont care that John Roberts says otherwise
You strike me as someone who still, in the back of your mind, is waiting for Obama to "get your guns," despite not being in office anymore.
AmIright?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 11:53:57 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2020, 11:48:55 AM
You strike me as someone who still, in the back of your mind, is waiting for Obama to "get your guns," despite not being in office anymore.
AmIright?
nope but there are plenty of other leftys wanting to do that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2020, 11:58:23 AM
Well let's hope cops keep murdering unarmed black people so that the left never has time to do something they've never intended and take your guns!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 12:02:14 PM
There are clearly quite a few on the left who want to eliminate fire arms in private hands, at minimum certain types.

Let's not somehow pretend this fear is baseless entirely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 12:06:24 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2020, 11:58:23 AM
Well let's hope cops keep murdering unarmed black people so that the left never has time to do something they've never intended and take your guns!
thats really a stupid comment OAM even for you
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 12:09:20 PM
Elizabeth Warren at first wanted a buy-back program but later changed it to naw we'll just take your guns outright 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 08, 2020, 12:10:01 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2020, 11:41:33 AM
Right, and imagine Trump continuing down this path, untethered.  I believe the only thing stopping him from being Emperor Trump is the media - of whom he is trying to discredit continually, every day.  He fires anyone who disagrees with him in hired positions.  He incites violence against groups he disagrees with. 

I think he's envious of China's power structure.
I’m not the biggest Trump guy, but even this is a little rich for my blood. Wow. 

He’s allowed to fire people- it’s part of his job. And people in Washington need to be fired more often if you ask me. Too many lifers there who bounce around from administration to administration. 

Inciting violence? I guess I’m just not seeing that. I haven’t seen him call for supporters of his to commit violence on others. 

And the media is not doing anything to stand in his way. They keep on giving him gifts like the Russia, Russia, Russia BS. It’s non-stop. They continually discredit themselves every single day and thereby make him stronger with his party. They never go after him on real issues- it’s all hype and propagandistic BS- and it keeps blowing up in their faces. 

Having said all of this, on a lot of issues he is WAY better than Biden. Biden is arguably the worst candidate in the history of the presidency.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 12:10:37 PM
I think it is a generalization to claim the left wants to take your guns, but it is generally accurate.  The left broadly speaking would prefer to emulate Europe on most things.  That would mean licensing and registration and approval by police to own a handgun, generally speaking.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 08, 2020, 12:11:06 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2020, 11:58:23 AM
Well let's hope cops keep murdering unarmed black people so that the left never has time to do something they've never intended and take your guns!
Oh they shoot/murder/beat the living shit out of unarmed white people too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 12:12:31 PM
The thing stopping any President from being omnipotent is the Constitution, and Congress, and SCOTUS.

Those are tethers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 08, 2020, 12:13:27 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 12:09:20 PM
Elizabeth Warren at first wanted a buy-back program but later changed it to naw we'll just take your guns outright
Elizabeth Warren at first used to be Native American, now she’s just white. 

Elizabeth Warren at first used to be republican. Now she’s a fake progressive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 12:17:02 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 08, 2020, 12:10:01 PM
I’m not the biggest Trump guy, but even this is a little rich for my blood. Wow.

He’s allowed to fire people- it’s part of his job. And people in Washington need to be fired more often if you ask me. Too many lifers there who bounce around from administration to administration.

Inciting violence? I guess I’m just not seeing that. I haven’t seen him call for supporters of his to commit violence on others.

And the media is not doing anything to stand in his way. They keep on giving him gifts like the Russia, Russia, Russia BS. It’s non-stop. They continually discredit themselves every single day and thereby make him stronger with his party. They never go after him on real issues- it’s all hype and propagandistic BS- and it keeps blowing up in their faces.

Having said all of this, on a lot of issues he is WAY better than Biden. Biden is arguably the worst candidate in the history of the presidency.
Mdot just when I think I have you pegged you jump up and say something sane like this

Now if we could work on your police perspective 

sounds like you had a very bad personal experience with the police and I am sorry about that

I hope your view mellows a little

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2020, 12:19:29 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 12:12:31 PM
The thing stopping any President from being omnipotent is the Constitution, and Congress, and SCOTUS.

Those are tethers.
Those tethers aren't as strong as we'd like them to be.  Trump is merely lacking a majority in the House to be the dictator he wants to be.  The Senate is in his pocket.  The SCOTUS is, too.  And he can wipe his ass with the constitution while his followers applaud.

It's all a sick joke.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 12:20:22 PM
What is he doing that is unconstitutional and "untethered"?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 12:24:02 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 12:20:22 PM
What is he doing that is unconstitutional and "untethered"?


He won and wasnt supposed to
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2020, 12:25:12 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 12:20:22 PM
What is he doing that is unconstitutional and "untethered"?
It's about what he would do.  I hope we never find out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on June 08, 2020, 12:26:28 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2020, 12:19:29 PM
Those tethers aren't as strong as we'd like them to be.  Trump is merely lacking a majority in the House to be the dictator he wants to be.  The Senate is in his pocket.  The SCOTUS is, too.  And he can wipe his ass with the constitution while his followers applaud.

It's all a sick joke.
You obviously don't follow SCOTUS' decisions. There are a good number of decisions that has not gone the President's way.

You can start with the most recent one https://theconversation.com/when-it-comes-to-reopening-churches-in-the-pandemic-supreme-court-says-grace-aint-groceries-135287 (https://theconversation.com/when-it-comes-to-reopening-churches-in-the-pandemic-supreme-court-says-grace-aint-groceries-135287)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 12:27:24 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2020, 12:25:12 PM
It's about what he would do.  I hope we never find out.
OK, what do you think he WOULD do is Congress and SCOTUS didn't tether him?

I agree he would rather be a dictator, but he simply can't be in any realistic world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 12:28:42 PM
When Trump was elected

the dems initiated recounts in many states to no avail

then the dems tried to convince the electoral delegates not to cast their votes as they should and that failed

then the dems started a huge investigation into Russian influence and that failed

then the dems impeached him and that failed

yep that happens when you beat the dems and werent supposed to
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on June 08, 2020, 12:29:10 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2020, 12:19:29 PM
Those tethers aren't as strong as we'd like them to be.  Trump is merely lacking a majority in the House to be the dictator he wants to be.  The Senate is in his pocket.  The SCOTUS is, too.  And he can wipe his ass with the constitution while his followers applaud.

It's all a sick joke.
I love that you are sort of making fun of people for being paranoid about Obama taking their guns and in the next breath talking seriously about how you believe Trump wants to make America a communist country. The irony is thick.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 12:33:50 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2020, 12:25:12 PM
It's about what he would do.  I hope we never find out.
Did you mean to type "It's about what I hope he does or did, so I could say gotcha!"   ?

He's been fighting that battle for 3.5 years, and always will fight that battle. I've never seen anything like it. Of course, I've never seen a president like him either. Unorthodox probably fits.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 12:34:21 PM
https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/curtis-houck/2020/06/04/cnn-gave-over-90-minutes-one-day-now-retracted-hydroxychloroquine (https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/curtis-houck/2020/06/04/cnn-gave-over-90-minutes-one-day-now-retracted-hydroxychloroquine)


Interesting read.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 12:41:05 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 12:34:21 PM
https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/curtis-houck/2020/06/04/cnn-gave-over-90-minutes-one-day-now-retracted-hydroxychloroquine (https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/curtis-houck/2020/06/04/cnn-gave-over-90-minutes-one-day-now-retracted-hydroxychloroquine)


Interesting read.
coverage of the retraction only gets crickets
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 08, 2020, 12:54:47 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 12:28:42 PM
When Trump was elected

the dems initiated recounts in many states to no avail

then the dems tried to convince the electoral delegates not to cast their votes as they should and that failed

then the dems started a huge investigation into Russian influence and that failed

then the dems impeached him and that failed

yep that happens when you beat the dems and werent supposed to
I don’t care for him, but your saying it nicely. The factual evidence on the whole collusion thing now clearly points to fraud at the least and possible laws broken, as a means to start an investigation that many behind knew had no merit.
not far different from the whole impeachment thing.  Total transparency- here is a tape of the call.
then the Kavanaugh fiasco.  What the left and media did to that man and is family was so sickening.  And with literally NO evidence. And yet like the Russia thing, and impeachment, the media was all in on all of it.  I remember hearing news @ anchors” literally calling Kavanaugh a serial rapist- repeatedly!

But those very same people won’t talk about Tara Reade AT All!

And finally the Pandemic.  The media hypocrisy is over the top.  And has been exposed. 

like I said in another thread if I were to believe the media:

if you protest the lock down, you are spreading it

if you attend church services- you are spreading it

if you protest over George Floyd, or setting a church on fire- you are not spreading it.

after a while you get to completely disregard virtually everything the media puts out, and you get to feeling line POTUS is the huge underdog. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 08, 2020, 12:59:20 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 08, 2020, 10:37:21 AM
The individual mandate was the worst thing about it.  Suddenly, the federal government was making its citizens purchase a product that they didn't necessarily want or need as the cost of being an American citizen.  IMO, that was wrong on principle.
I realize that the mandate is hard to defend as a libertarian, but here goes...

We allow for mandated auto insurance as a condition of driving a vehicle on public roads. I don't think many libertarians really have a problem with that. The idea is that the ability to buy and drive a car gives you an enormous power to wreak damage on others, both economic and physical injury. But you have a choice--if you don't want to drive a car, you don't need auto insurance. So there's no fight.

The young and healthy among us decide "hey, I don't need health insurance." They're young and healthy, and believe themselves invincible, and the vast majority of them probably won't really use their insurance much. 

But... What happens when they're playing extreme ultimate frisbee and crack heads with someone, the ambulance is called, and they have to go do the ICU to stop a brain bleed? They're going to get care, because the hospital doesn't make insurance a gate to providing emergency care. These young people aren't given the choice "do you want to get care or die because you can't afford it?", they are just given care. 

They get a $200,000 hospital bill after it's over, and what do they do?

Well, the young and healthy often don't have assets, so they declare bankruptcy. And the hospital (and taxpayers, often), get stuck with the bill. 

I would agree with young healthy people gambling with their own health care if we lived in a society that would kick them to the curb and not provide care if they couldn't afford it. (Not that I would consider that a compassionate society, of course). 

But in the current society, they're not gambling with their health, they're gambling with the hospital's money. And when you're gambling with someone else's money, you get all the upside of winning (you get care if you need it) and none of the downside of losing (because you're not risking your own assets).

--------------------

Despite the above, one of the critical problems with Obamacare is that there was no option to JUST sign up for catastrophic care. They put a whole bunch of mandatory stuff into what an insurance plan must include to qualify, so there was really no way for young, healthy people to avoid signing up for plans they actually didn't need. So I agree with you there... But that doesn't change that the mandate can potentially be justifiable. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 12:59:27 PM
I see repeated concerns expressed in the media about the virus spreading due to protests.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 01:00:09 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 08, 2020, 12:54:47 PM
I don’t care for him, but your saying it nicely. The factual evidence on the whole collusion thing now clearly points to fraud at the least and possible laws broken, as a means to start an investigation that many behind knew had no merit.
not far different from the whole impeachment thing.  Total transparency- here is a tape of the call.
then the Kavanaugh fiasco.  What the left and media did to that man and is family was so sickening.  And with literally NO evidence. And yet like the Russia thing, and impeachment, the media was all in on all of it.  I remember hearing news @ anchors” literally calling Kavanaugh a serial rapist- repeatedly!

But those very same people won’t talk about Tara Reade AT All!

And finally the Pandemic.  The media hypocrisy is over the top.  And has been exposed. 

like I said in another thread if I were to believe the media:

if you protest the lock down, you are spreading it

if you attend church services- you are spreading it

if you protest over George Floyd, or setting a church on fire- you are not spreading it.

after a while you get to completely disregard virtually everything the media puts out, and you get to feeling line POTUS is the huge underdog. 

yep if you believe CNN Trump is a double digit underdog to Biden

no way thats true the American people are not that stupid
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 08, 2020, 01:00:14 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 12:27:24 PM
OK, what do you think he WOULD do is Congress and SCOTUS didn't tether him?

I agree he would rather be a dictator, but he simply can't be in any realistic world.
He can't stay focused on one thing long enough to be a dictator.  It doesn't take much to knock him off one track and on to another.
I would add the military leadership to the tethers.  It is not a good thing when the military has to be a tether to duly elected civilian authority, but, in this case, it's the lesser of the evils.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 01:00:25 PM
Folks under 30 could get a catastrophic policy without paying the "tax".

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2020, 01:04:24 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 01:00:09 PM
yep if you believe CNN Trump is a double digit underdog to Biden

no way thats true the American people are not that stupid
More specifically, like last time, many who are voting for Trump don't share that information.  Whether it's privacy or shame, I don't know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 01:04:51 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 08, 2020, 12:59:20 PM
I realize that the mandate is hard to defend as a libertarian, but here goes...

We allow for mandated auto insurance as a condition of driving a vehicle on public roads. I don't think many libertarians really have a problem with that. The idea is that the ability to buy and drive a car gives you an enormous power to wreak damage on others, both economic and physical injury. But you have a choice--if you don't want to drive a car, you don't need auto insurance. So there's no fight.

The young and healthy among us decide "hey, I don't need health insurance." They're young and healthy, and believe themselves invincible, and the vast majority of them probably won't really use their insurance much.

But... What happens when they're playing extreme ultimate frisbee and crack heads with someone, the ambulance is called, and they have to go do the ICU to stop a brain bleed? They're going to get care, because the hospital doesn't make insurance a gate to providing emergency care. These young people aren't given the choice "do you want to get care or die because you can't afford it?", they are just given care.

They get a $200,000 hospital bill after it's over, and what do they do?

Well, the young and healthy often don't have assets, so they declare bankruptcy. And the hospital (and taxpayers, often), get stuck with the bill.

I would agree with young healthy people gambling with their own health care if we lived in a society that would kick them to the curb and not provide care if they couldn't afford it. (Not that I would consider that a compassionate society, of course).

But in the current society, they're not gambling with their health, they're gambling with the hospital's money. And when you're gambling with someone else's money, you get all the upside of winning (you get care if you need it) and none of the downside of losing (because you're not risking your own assets).

--------------------

Despite the above, one of the critical problems with Obamacare is that there was no option to JUST sign up for catastrophic care. They put a whole bunch of mandatory stuff into what an insurance plan must include to qualify, so there was really no way for young, healthy people to avoid signing up for plans they actually didn't need. So I agree with you there... But that doesn't change that the mandate can potentially be justifiable.
first of all insurance required for driving still gives the taxpayer a choice on what insurance he can get or not to drive at all

second just because the plan needed everybody to buy insurance to work does not make it constitutional

in short it was a redistribution of wealth which was very socialist of them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 01:07:31 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 01:00:25 PM
Folks under 30 could get a catastrophic policy without paying the "tax".


yep but because obamacare existed many insurance options were taken away from the American people
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2020, 01:09:25 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 12:27:24 PM
OK, what do you think he WOULD do is Congress and SCOTUS didn't tether him?

I agree he would rather be a dictator, but he simply can't be in any realistic world.
I know the direct power of the president is limited, but he'd encourage and get lots of things through.  He'd probably end as many aid/funding programs as possible, somehow increase military spending, more blatantly surround himself with 'yes men', etc.

Actually, now that I think about it, most everything he would do would simply benefit himself.  So we'd kind of dodge a bullet due to his narcissism, lol.  He very well may not care much about wide-ranging policies.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 01:10:13 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2020, 01:04:24 PM
More specifically, like last time, many who are voting for Trump don't share that information.  Whether it's privacy or shame, I don't know.
no what it is is the left media folks using poll results as a political tool to sway the voters

inaccurate polls is on purpose
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 01:10:56 PM
The obvious thing Dictator Trump would do if he could is eliminate elections, and he'd appoint members of Congress, if he bothered with one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2020, 01:13:26 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 01:04:51 PM


in short it was a redistribution of wealth which was very socialist of them
It is, BUT, it's not a redistribution from wealthy to poor, it's from old to young.  As it benefits an entire cohort, regardless of socioeconomic status, race, or whatever, I think that makes it "better".  

Tomorrow's elderly would have benefited from it previously as they pay into it.  The idea is perfectly harmless once it's rolling along, but getting it started is an issue, I agree.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2020, 01:14:43 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 01:10:13 PM
no what it is is the left media folks using poll results as a political tool to sway the voters

inaccurate polls is on purpose
Again, this is just another assertion, based on nothing.  Polls gain credibility by being more accurate than other polls.  So they have a motive to be as accurate as possible.

Purposely slanted polls are dismissed and ignored, or should be.  You know this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2020, 01:16:46 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 01:10:56 PM
The obvious thing Dictator Trump would do if he could is eliminate elections, and he'd appoint members of Congress, if he bothered with one.
Right, again, the more I think about it, the less he'd actively do against people.  It'd mostly be FOR himself.  Like appointees - I recall on the news, and I don't remember the actual numbers, but the president has to appoint like 150 positions of this or that and 2 years into his presidency, he had only appointed something like 70.  Obama and W. had appointed 147 or so of them at the same point in their terms.

It's hard to do your job when you're watching TV and tweeting all day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 01:16:53 PM
It was not without harm for me personally.  And it left 30 million uninsured.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 08, 2020, 01:21:09 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 08, 2020, 12:59:20 PM
I realize that the mandate is hard to defend as a libertarian, but here goes...

We allow for mandated auto insurance as a condition of driving a vehicle on public roads. I don't think many libertarians really have a problem with that. The idea is that the ability to buy and drive a car gives you an enormous power to wreak damage on others, both economic and physical injury. But you have a choice--if you don't want to drive a car, you don't need auto insurance. So there's no fight.

The young and healthy among us decide "hey, I don't need health insurance." They're young and healthy, and believe themselves invincible, and the vast majority of them probably won't really use their insurance much.

But... What happens when they're playing extreme ultimate frisbee and crack heads with someone, the ambulance is called, and they have to go do the ICU to stop a brain bleed? They're going to get care, because the hospital doesn't make insurance a gate to providing emergency care. These young people aren't given the choice "do you want to get care or die because you can't afford it?", they are just given care.

They get a $200,000 hospital bill after it's over, and what do they do?

Well, the young and healthy often don't have assets, so they declare bankruptcy. And the hospital (and taxpayers, often), get stuck with the bill.

I would agree with young healthy people gambling with their own health care if we lived in a society that would kick them to the curb and not provide care if they couldn't afford it. (Not that I would consider that a compassionate society, of course).

But in the current society, they're not gambling with their health, they're gambling with the hospital's money. And when you're gambling with someone else's money, you get all the upside of winning (you get care if you need it) and none of the downside of losing (because you're not risking your own assets).

--------------------

Despite the above, one of the critical problems with Obamacare is that there was no option to JUST sign up for catastrophic care. They put a whole bunch of mandatory stuff into what an insurance plan must include to qualify, so there was really no way for young, healthy people to avoid signing up for plans they actually didn't need. So I agree with you there... But that doesn't change that the mandate can potentially be justifiable.
Yes, it's hard to defend, but you did about the best job possible.  So, congrats!
There was no modesty about it.  There was no acceptance that there might be other, even better, ideas to consider.  The authors of ObamaCare would not have even considered a "catastrophic-care-only" option, because the ACA was going to be the miracle fix for everything.  To have allowed a limited option would have been an admission that it was not all win-win, that people were being commanded to give up something and their views ought to be considered too.
Another part of what was wrong was the process itself.  They rammed it through Congress without a single Republican vote using parliamentary trickery to the max.  Previous major changes in the relationship between American citizens and their government (like Social Security and the Great Society programs) got at least some buy-in from the opposition party.  Not with ObamaCare.  The opposition was told that they had lost the election and should go to the back of the bus.
So, sold to the American people with lies, passed by parliamentary trickery, and ruled to be Constitutional by SCOTUS on logic that the administration wasn't even using in its arguments before the Court. What's not to like about all that?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 01:23:31 PM
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/86893 (https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/86893)

Could be interesting. Maybe not. Watch the stuff sell out now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 08, 2020, 01:31:57 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 01:00:09 PM
yep if you believe CNN Trump is a double digit underdog to Biden

no way thats true the American people are not that stupid
People are often stupid, especially when making group decisions.
The American people elected Woodrow Wilson twice, FDR four times by four landslides, LBJ by a landslide, Richard Nixon twice, once by a landslide, Bill Clinton twice, defeating honorable WWII veterans both times, and then a black man with a sketchy past, and without any notable accomplishments beyond delivering a good speech at the convention, twice.
Give 'em a choice between two bad candidates in 2020, and they're certainly capable of picking the one you don't like.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 08, 2020, 01:33:39 PM
Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2474%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Fb0100890-a4e1-4840-8332-432d1ec405bb_1237x409.png&t=1591624948&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1c9d-160001010400&sig=rOFcFZst89lTy7CQl8jd0Q--~C) (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUstu5CAQ_JrxzRbPgA8cRpHyGxaPNsMGgwM4yezXLx6fVkJQ6kdVqwurG_hcnmrPtQ1HhbIEpxiZqcBi6MhhyeUQ6rIWgE2HqFo5YNgPE4PVLeR0NhDO8Tw8FJmZ1qtYpTUzc9YJyzhBhliBEces93WZRR8uQLKgcorPF_EQ1aO1vd7o_UY--rEuTfUwtWn7Odm89VDYtIf-rtDs4yxZYthCu5H3tTO23MHXBejd5-zORFz2kn2BWsM39HhtAHvvvcQIP-X4Kdgvc9hP6PkyAuLGWMlGozUdGRUwzhzLUTtDiQEhZsmmSie96b856Z96Tdg5rrW84GvcejEjjJCc0agZ4JFJhkZJKenMxGGw7JRbMKHil6F52pMfgiKIIPSGJMaYYDHhaU1v8hdX88d_3RjaPPlvP0NRRSc3mRK8r72gGutjNjpOCdpp19KrtiOF9lwgaRPBXU62y_qXMe25g0rwUyO0BuUKdns5JYiKoQu63P9AUlsuKSTvQt11d-MfgKa_VA)
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2408%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F64ff4ca6-db93-4f7b-be16-f59d5818a34c_1204x748.png&t=1591624948&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1c9d-160001010400&sig=lfqNTGGrn0eq.KxqBAEVVA--~C) (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUslu5SAQ_JrHzZbZDD74EEWa37BYGh4TGxzAk7x8fbB9GglBqZeqVhdGVfApv-Y9lYqOAnkJdmZkogIL1JDFkksUyuIywKbCOtd8ANoPvQajakjxbCCc4wk954kzx6WkQklHFbWW43G0eLCSAh05Q6fMog4bIBqYU1xfFzFa52ete3nQtwf5046xsS-HLlWZj96krYXCpjy010E1z7NkWcMW6oO8u8ZYUwOfN6BvPiV7JtZlz8lnKCX8gxYvFWBvvbcY4accPwXbpQ_zAS2fOxi41kayTitFO0YFdBPHslNWU6JBiEmyvtBebeonRfVV7gkbx72WC17jlguOzDlm1NhZPTU-J3SnAY-d45PlEktFmVkwGdi3YLLfo0dhJgMZhnGQGGOCRY97F0f5jYv-6z8fbNg8-W8_KM9ZRdvrHLwvraBo49ek1dpHqKddS6vajhjqa4Go9Ar2drLe1l_G1NcOc4SvskKtkO9gs5dTMlCBmqBN7Q_EeUs5huhtKLtqbvwCUU6_-A)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2020, 01:39:29 PM
All of those elderly voters dying doesn't help Trump's re-election bid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 01:47:28 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2020, 01:39:29 PM
All of those elderly voters dying doesn't help Trump's re-election bid.
most of those are in blue states so it wont have much effect

it would be much better if all the Blue state Mayors treated the nursing homes better
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2020, 01:48:26 PM
Oh, whew.  Dodged a bullet there.  Oh wait, too soon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 02:00:45 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2020, 01:48:26 PM
Oh, whew.  Dodged a bullet there.  Oh wait, too soon.
no bullet dodging required

if the dems keep doing what they are doing Trump will win in a landslide
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 02:02:40 PM
I don't think polls are somehow biased for political purposes.  That makes no sense to me.  I also think polls at this point are particularly pointless, other than perhaps to track trends.  And obviously the polls likely to matter are in the critical midwestern states.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 08, 2020, 02:04:53 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 08, 2020, 12:54:47 PM
I don’t care for him, but your saying it nicely. The factual evidence on the whole collusion thing now clearly points to fraud at the least and possible laws broken, as a means to start an investigation that many behind knew had no merit.
I do think the whole collusion thing was horribly misunderstood and misreported, because we still keep calling it "the whole collusion thing". 

We know the Russians were trying to meddle in our election. We know they were doing so to make it more likely that Trump won. There was no proof that the Trump campaign actively colluded with them to do that, and the investigation basically stated that. 

What nobody seems to walk back and ask is "why did the Russians want him to win? How does his victory benefit Russia?" 

I'm not entirely sure, but I think his efforts to pin the interference in the election on the Ukrainians instead of Russia, at the specific time that the Russians needed some political cover for annexing the Crimea, are a little suspect.


Quote
not far different from the whole impeachment thing.  Total transparency- here is a tape of the call. 

No, no, no.

There was never a tape of the call provided to anyone. Didn't happen.

And although they kept saying "read the transcript", the 'transcript' wasn't a transcript -- it was a memo summarizing what was said on the call. So we have no clue how accurate it actually is.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 08, 2020, 02:09:18 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 01:10:56 PM
The obvious thing Dictator Trump would do if he could is eliminate elections, and he'd appoint members of Congress, if he bothered with one.
Remember how many times he's "joked" about staying on for 12, 16 years "or longer"? Remember how he's "joked" about how much President for Life is awesome?

That said, I think that might be a little too far even for his own supporters. So we'll have President Ivanka elected in to 2024, followed by President Jared in 2032... When does Barron turn 35? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 08, 2020, 02:12:07 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 08, 2020, 01:21:09 PM
Yes, it's hard to defend, but you did about the best job possible.  So, congrats!
There was no modesty about it.  There was no acceptance that there might be other, even better, ideas to consider.  The authors of ObamaCare would not have even considered a "catastrophic-care-only" option, because the ACA was going to be the miracle fix for everything.  To have allowed a limited option would have been an admission that it was not all win-win, that people were being commanded to give up something and their views ought to be considered too.
Another part of what was wrong was the process itself.  They rammed it through Congress without a single Republican vote using parliamentary trickery to the max.  Previous major changes in the relationship between American citizens and their government (like Social Security and the Great Society programs) got at least some buy-in from the opposition party.  Not with ObamaCare.  The opposition was told that they had lost the election and should go to the back of the bus.
So, sold to the American people with lies, passed by parliamentary trickery, and ruled to be Constitutional by SCOTUS on logic that the administration wasn't even using in its arguments before the Court. What's not to like about all that?
Tons of problems with the bill. It only works with a robust individual market, but by not breaking up employer-sponsored insurance plans, by not breaking up union-sponsored insurance plans, by not breaking up Medicare/Medicaid, there was no way to get enough people into the system to have a robust individual market. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 02:22:27 PM
Wow, do we really need three overtly political threads on the non-political message board?

Can we at least keep this one clear for mostly Corona-related discussion?  I feel like we've had a lot of good discussion and exchange of ideas on this one, related to the current pandemic.  Can we keep it that way?  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 02:24:44 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 08, 2020, 02:04:53 PM



No, no, no.

There was never a tape of the call provided to anyone. Didn't happen.

And although they kept saying "read the transcript", the 'transcript' wasn't a transcript -- it was a memo summarizing what was said on the call. So we have no clue how accurate it actually is. 


everyone hearing the phone call has testified that it was correct

so what more do you need

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 02:26:37 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 02:22:27 PM
Wow, do we really need three overtly political threads on the non-political message board?

Can we at least keep this one clear for mostly Corona-related discussion?  I feel like we've had a lot of good discussion and exchange of ideas on this one, related to the current pandemic.  Can we keep it that way? 


quiet or we'll create a 4th one lets talk about Biden's son

just kidding
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 02:28:47 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 02:22:27 PM
Wow, do we really need three overtly political threads on the non-political message board?

Can we at least keep this one clear for mostly Corona-related discussion?  I feel like we've had a lot of good discussion and exchange of ideas on this one, related to the current pandemic.  Can we keep it that way? 


Yeah, I'd rather we not have it on this thread, but, it's happened. We don't need the thread about the AR. I admit I've waded too, but it's going too far in some of these threads.

The stream thread should be the only one for this (temporary) allowance of political discussion. When the protests and such die down, we can lock it.

Plus, players reported today, for football activities. Seems like we'll be getting that back soon - something I didn't predict would happen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2020, 02:30:10 PM
Go Gators!
(https://i.imgur.com/2xQ5sDG.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 02:40:18 PM
Texas Longhorn stadium expansion

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tDqvTMfsMo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tDqvTMfsMo)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 02:42:58 PM
The WHO now saying that asymptomatic spread is very rare.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 02:45:42 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 02:42:58 PM
The WHO now saying that asymptomatic spread is very rare.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html)


Well, I'm skeptical of that organization, given that they said this thing wasn't a risk, and were critical of our country banning travel from China.

But, I'll take any good news I can get these days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 02:47:33 PM
That's a bit of a surprise to me.

I favor distancing where possible and face masks where it isn't while protecting the elderly with near isolation.

We should know for sure if crowds really spread this a lot soon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 02:47:55 PM
Florida had a large jump in cases this past week, but did far more tests than the week prior. The percent positive remained flat, at 3.62 (up from 3.51 the prior week).

Deaths are dropping greatly. Maybe the doctors have a better understanding on treatment now?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 02:49:06 PM
On second thought, a person without symptoms is not coughing/sneezing a lot, which I THINK is the primary transmission vector.

So, perhaps it does make sense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 02:49:45 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 02:42:58 PM
The WHO now saying that asymptomatic spread is very rare.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html)


I hope thats true but hey because this came from WHO I wouldnt be surprised if the exact opposite is the case
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 02:50:23 PM
The mortality rate could be dropping because the elderly have been isolated and are less often contracting the virus, in addition to doctors understanding how to treat serious cases.  This cytokine explosion thing is treatable, and they know how to manage it now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 02:51:26 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 02:49:06 PM
On second thought, a person without symptoms is not coughing/sneezing a lot, which I THINK is the primary transmission vector.

So, perhaps it does make sense.
Yeah that's some of the takeaway, I think.

Also, people with symptoms are potentially carrying a heavier viral load than those without, and at least some of the research is indicating that the size of the viral load is one of the greatest factors for transmission, as well as severity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 08, 2020, 02:54:06 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 02:47:55 PM
Florida had a large jump in cases this past week, but did far more tests than the week prior. The percent positive remained flat, at 3.62 (up from 3.51 the prior week).

Deaths are dropping greatly. Maybe the doctors have a better understanding on treatment now?
That's what I'm trying to figure out. New case rates are pretty flat nationally at 20K+/day. Deaths were on a downward trend for 5 weeks, paused a week, and now appear to be headed further down. 

In California, new case rates are increasing, but deaths are holding constant and haven't changed much in the last 6 weeks.

I can see two possibilities:


If it's #1, that's good in general. Because that means that if infections start rising again after reopening, we can hopefully keep the impact of those infections from being dire.

If it's #2, that might be an indication that social distancing is working (because we're seeing reduced deaths, i.e. we're actually improving the situation) but that case rates are holding steady due to increased testing. If that's the case, reopening might have bad effects.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 02:54:22 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 02:49:45 PM
I hope thats true but hey because this came from WHO I wouldnt be surprised if the exact opposite is the case
They've had their missteps, that's for certain.  I think much of their early positioning was politically motivated.  As this has gone on, I feel like they've become more health-focused, which is good since that's the title of their organization.

If you believe that the WHO has been acting with a certain agenda throughout this pandemic, I don't see how this particular statement serves that agenda.  If anything, it goes the opposite direction.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 03:02:07 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 08, 2020, 03:00:45 PM
They didn’t wNt him to win. There is plenty of evidence they did things that would
work against him. 
I heard the tape.
Take it to the politics board.  We're done discussing it here.  Thank you for your support.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 08, 2020, 03:04:41 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 03:02:07 PM
Take it to the politics board.  We're done discussing it here.  Thank you for your support.
Take your attitude to some other board.  There is a shit ton of political posts that name names and break all of the rules. 
and you pick mine to talk like that? 

unacceptable 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 08, 2020, 03:11:50 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 09:03:32 AM
There are experts who do think otherwise.
The key word is *think*.

Zero evidence.

On the other hand, multiple studies confirm the virus as most likely natural.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 03:15:47 PM
Now that we are heading back, I've looked into Illinois' numbers and things are trending down, as far as cases go. Deaths are a little harder to trend. It's kinda all over the place. 

There were a shit-ton of HUGE protests lately, so it will be interesting how that shakes out- particularly in the City.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 03:16:28 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 08, 2020, 03:04:41 PM
Take your attitude to some other board.  There is a shit ton of political posts that name names and break all of the rules.
and you pick mine to talk like that?

unacceptable
 I chose your post to respond to, because it was the most recent one.  But your response was unwarranted and aggressive. 

So now I'll match your tone-- get bent.  I'll be deleting political posts on this thread.  Don't like it?  Go somewhere else.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 03:18:57 PM
I just deleted political posts on this page and the previous one.  If any of you feel the need to discuss politics, do it elsewhere.  There's an entire forum for it, on this very site, at the bottom of the front page.  Go knock yourselves out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 03:19:31 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 08, 2020, 03:11:50 PM
The key word is *think*.

Zero evidence.

On the other hand, multiple studies confirm the virus as most likely natural.
"Likely"


Another key word, and certainly one I wouldn't use in the same sentence with the word "confirm".

There is nothing confirmed about this virus, aside from the fact China knowingly and willingly unleashed it on the world.

Until I see complete consensus on the matter, I will continue to hold out the possibility is was created/altered in a lab. I'm not closing any doors. Too early for that still.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 08, 2020, 03:24:40 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 08, 2020, 03:11:50 PM
The key word is *think*.

Zero evidence.

On the other hand, multiple studies confirm the virus as most likely natural.
So nothing AGAIN BBTS? 1.4 BILLION with an axe to grind couldn't come up with a nefarious concoction because you keep repeating "Zero Evidence"  like the Rain Man "wanna watch Wapner".You have no proof just opinions
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 03:28:15 PM
I'm surprised a large company would be impacted by a minimum wage at all.  We did not have any employees making anywhere remotely near even $15 and hour.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 03:29:14 PM
@Big Beef Tacosupreme (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1529) 

Take it to some other thread.  Perhaps the 2020 shit-show stream of thought thread.  I'll give you a minute to copy your thoughts, and then I'm deleting the post.

Thank you for your support.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 03:34:22 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 08, 2020, 02:54:06 PM
That's what I'm trying to figure out. New case rates are pretty flat nationally at 20K+/day. Deaths were on a downward trend for 5 weeks, paused a week, and now appear to be headed further down.

In California, new case rates are increasing, but deaths are holding constant and haven't changed much in the last 6 weeks.

I can see two possibilities:

  • Doctors are becoming more effective at treating the severe cases or stopping the moderate cases from deteriorating to severe, so despite the cases we're doing better at treatment.
  • Because we're ramping up testing, we're catching more of the mild cases so we're adding cases without high likelihood of death.

If it's #1, that's good in general. Because that means that if infections start rising again after reopening, we can hopefully keep the impact of those infections from being dire.

If it's #2, that might be an indication that social distancing is working (because we're seeing reduced deaths, i.e. we're actually improving the situation) but that case rates are holding steady due to increased testing. If that's the case, reopening might have bad effects.


number 3 might be the virus is getting weaker
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 08, 2020, 03:50:35 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 08, 2020, 10:37:21 AM
Hmmm.  I will have to think about your points.
ObamaCare did not help me any.  My costs went up.  I realize that that doesn't necessarily make it bad policy.
The individual mandate was the worst thing about it.  Suddenly, the federal government was making its citizens purchase a product that they didn't necessarily want or need as the cost of being an American citizen.  IMO, that was wrong on principle.
And, IMO, it was wrong when SCOTUS decided that it was not a mandate but merely a tax.  I think that John Roberts caved on that for political reasons.  A different Justice Roberts, first name Owen, in the 1937 case of West Coast Hotel v. Parrish, reversed his own previous vote in a similar case.  It was perceived to have been an attempt to defuse the appeal of FDR's "court-packing plan."  A humorist called it "the switch in time that saved nine."
Another reason that I opposed it was that it was quite obvious that it was intended as a step toward total government control of health-care insurance.  A step toward "single-payer," as Obama and others admitted at times when they didn't think they were on camera.
So, as I saw it then, and still do, it was a bad policy and a dishonest policy in that it was not intended to fix problems but rather to pave the way for even more government involvement.
Now, without the individual mandate, it is just yet another federal program that we can't pay for and is digging us deeper and deeper into national debt.
See posts above as to why your costs probably went up.

I do not think this was a step toward single payer.  Quite the opposite, actually.  Remember, this was a republican plan, and it was designed to increase competition.  There is nothing in it that remotely resembles single payer.

Now, when the law was first being negotiated, there was going to be a "public option" -- a government insurance plan that would compete with private insurance.  This was voted down and never enacted into law.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 03:52:42 PM
Move that one too please. To the stream thread, along with the new thread you made.

I'm with UTee on keep this thread clean, moving forward.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 03:55:52 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 03:52:42 PM
Move that one too please. To the stream thread, along with the new thread you made.

I'm with UTee on keep this thread clean, moving forward.
I made that one by splitting topics  but it was BBTZ's post so he shows as the author.  I would move the post above over there too, if I could remember how.  Can you split posts to an already-existing thread?  Or does it always create new?  Not sure...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 03:56:29 PM
I am still leaning to thinking we'll have CFB this year, pretty much as usual, with face masks probably.  "We" are learning some critical things about transmission of this thing obviously.  The fear it could live on surfaces for a hundred years is dispelled.  The fear hospitals would be overrun.  The fear the mortality rate would be 10% or more.  The fear that seeing on TV could make you get it.  The fear the economy would completely collapse and we'd have street riots.  

I think we're in OK shape on this one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 03:57:13 PM
I don't think you can. But, you can merge the new thread to the stream thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 04:00:09 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 03:56:29 PM
I am still leaning to thinking we'll have CFB this year, pretty much as usual, with face masks probably.  "We" are learning some critical things about transmission of this thing obviously.  The fear it could live on surfaces for a hundred years is dispelled.  The fear hospitals would be overrun.  The fear the mortality rate would be 10% or more.  The fear that seeing on TV could make you get it.  The fear the economy would completely collapse and we'd have street riots. 

I think we're in OK shape on this one.
Yeah I know that the Texas governor is moving quickly toward making stadiums available to be open.  He's already announced sports stadiums could open to 50%, up from 25% a couple of weeks ago.

Realistically I'm not sure how that would work, but there aren't any major spectator sports going on in the state yet, anyway.  Pretty clearly, he's drawing a line from May 30 to September 1 and ramping the "% capacity" to work out so it'll be 100% on the first weekend in September.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 08, 2020, 04:06:00 PM
Buckeyes returned to voluntary workouts today
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 04:07:23 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on June 08, 2020, 04:06:00 PM
Buckeyes returned to voluntary workouts today
Badgers too. It's a good sign.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 08, 2020, 04:09:13 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 03:15:47 PM
Now that we are heading back, I've looked into Illinois' numbers and things are trending down, as far as cases go. Deaths are a little harder to trend. It's kinda all over the place.

There were a shit-ton of HUGE protests lately, so it will be interesting how that shakes out- particularly in the City.
Yeah, I'm trying to keep a close eye on the numbers as well.  Apparently protest numbers were still growing larger as of two days ago.  Could be a few days delay before we start seeing any effects.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 08, 2020, 04:10:18 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 03:19:31 PM
"Likely"


Another key word, and certainly one I wouldn't use in the same sentence with the word "confirm".

There is nothing confirmed about this virus, aside from the fact China knowingly and willingly unleashed it on the world.

Until I see complete consensus on the matter, I will continue to hold out the possibility is was created/altered in a lab. I'm not closing any doors. Too early for that still.
I think Jonathan Taylor was an alien.

It is likely he isn't.  but you can't say FOR SURE.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 04:12:10 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/texas-reports-a-record-high-number-of-hospitalized-coronavirus-patients-after-state-reopened-early.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/texas-reports-a-record-high-number-of-hospitalized-coronavirus-patients-after-state-reopened-early.html)

This report may be a bit misleading IMHO.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 08, 2020, 04:16:05 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 08, 2020, 03:24:40 PM
So nothing AGAIN BBTS? 1.4 BILLION with an axe to grind couldn't come up with a nefarious concoction because you keep repeating "Zero Evidence"  like the Rain Man "wanna watch Wapner".You have no proof just opinions
So fill in the blanks for me.

China intentionally inflicted a virus on humanity to ...???

China developed an kept hidden new ways of genetically engineering viruses far beyond our capabilities in the United States.  Then, they used incredibly advanced technology to start a pandemic in China.  Why not drop some off in Mexico and go home?

China has lost billions so far due to this pandemic.  This was intentional because?

Why is it more likely that a virus escaped from a sophisticated lab following strict American safety protocols than just mutating in nature?  After all, there are millions of bats in China, and it happened at least once before in 2017.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 08, 2020, 04:17:12 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 03:29:14 PM
@Big Beef Tacosupreme (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1529)

Take it to some other thread.  Perhaps the 2020 shit-show stream of thought thread.  I'll give you a minute to copy your thoughts, and then I'm deleting the post.

Thank you for your support.
oh, sorry UT...I'm still pages behind...lol

I was actually staying away from politics, I thought...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 08, 2020, 04:19:38 PM
Nah. deleted the ACA thread.

You guys no likee, no problemo.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 04:21:19 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 08, 2020, 04:19:38 PM
Nah. deleted the ACA thread.

You guys no likee, no problemo.
I'm fine with it elsewhere, just really trying to keep this thread clean.  And I have to say that any discussion of ACA is bound to be political in nature, ya know?  Anyway, badgerfan said it's good to discuss that kind of stuff on the 2020 stream of unconsciousness, and I knew you put a lot of effort into that post so I split it off. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 04:21:50 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 08, 2020, 04:16:05 PM
So fill in the blanks for me.

China intentionally inflicted a virus on humanity to ...???

China developed an kept hidden new ways of genetically engineering viruses far beyond our capabilities in the United States.  Then, they used incredibly advanced technology to start a pandemic in China.  Why not drop some off in Mexico and go home?

China has lost billions so far due to this pandemic.  This was intentional because?

Why is it more likely that a virus escaped from a sophisticated lab following strict American safety protocols than just mutating in nature?  After all, there are millions of bats in China, and it happened at least once before in 2017.
My thoughts tend to go along the lines of they did it to level the playing field. All they care about is being the World's bank.

They shut down travel within their own country, but allowed armies to go to Europe, the US, and elsewhere - threby crippling competing economies (or so they thought).

That rings alarm bells for me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 04:23:08 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 04:12:10 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/texas-reports-a-record-high-number-of-hospitalized-coronavirus-patients-after-state-reopened-early.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/texas-reports-a-record-high-number-of-hospitalized-coronavirus-patients-after-state-reopened-early.html)

This report may be a bit misleading IMHO.
Well it's factually correct and I think there's reason to watch the numbers very closely.  The article does mention that Texas still has a lot of available capacity in hospitals, ICUs, and ventilators.  Of course, they didn't LEAD with that info, because it won't get any eyeballs...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 08, 2020, 04:24:23 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 02:47:55 PM
Florida had a large jump in cases this past week, but did far more tests than the week prior. The percent positive remained flat, at 3.62 (up from 3.51 the prior week).

Deaths are dropping greatly. Maybe the doctors have a better understanding on treatment now?
My guess is the deaths are dropping greatly because it’s just not that deadly overall and it’s already killed the most at risk people- 43% deaths nationwide were in nursing homes. Average nursing home resident is 80 years old and has plenty of medical complications. Not exactly young and healthy people there.

It’s already wiped out who it was going to wipe out for the most part.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 04:27:12 PM
Good point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 04:30:15 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 04:23:08 PM
Well it's factually correct and I think there's reason to watch the numbers very closely.  The article does mention that Texas still has a lot of available capacity in hospitals, ICUs, and ventilators.  Of course, they didn't LEAD with that info, because it won't get any eyeballs...
It says the previous high was May 5, a month ago.  One day doesn't mean anything obviously.  This high figure just topped the May 5 figure, and every day in between was lower.  Trends count.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 08, 2020, 04:31:03 PM
I'd also note that at times media reports cherry pick bad states that opened early and ignore other states that opened even earlier and are not seeing a particular spike.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 04:33:22 PM
Florida is using <25 percent of its hospital resources right now. That's been steady for quite some time.

Illinois is using about 50 percent of its ICU beds and ventilators. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 04:43:57 PM
Yeah here in Texico, Houston is really driving the recent upward trend in hospitalizations.  Dallas, San Antonio, and Austin have remained relatively flat over the past month.

So the interesting thing would be, to attempt to tease out WHY Houston might be different than other cities in Texas.  And then use that information to help course correct where possible.  With numbers as low as they are compared to overall population, something as simple as a single large nursing home getting hit, could spike the numbers dramatically.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 08, 2020, 04:47:39 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 04:21:50 PM
My thoughts tend to go along the lines of they did it to level the playing field. All they care about is being the World's bank.

They shut down travel within their own country, but allowed armies to go to Europe, the US, and elsewhere - threby crippling competing economies (or so they thought).

That rings alarm bells for me.
Was going to say destabilize the opposition but you brought  the bank thing - great point
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 08, 2020, 04:57:51 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 04:21:19 PM
I'm fine with it elsewhere, just really trying to keep this thread clean.  And I have to say that any discussion of ACA is bound to be political in nature, ya know?  Anyway, badgerfan said it's good to discuss that kind of stuff on the 2020 stream of unconsciousness, and I knew you put a lot of effort into that post so I split it off. :)
I actually didn't put any effort in.  I could practically recite the ACA at this point. I'd say I've spent close to 2000 hours on it.

I know things I never wanted to know, and reduced people to risk and numbers.

I don't do that anymore.  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 08, 2020, 04:59:34 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 04:21:50 PM
My thoughts tend to go along the lines of they did it to level the playing field. All they care about is being the World's bank.

They shut down travel within their own country, but allowed armies to go to Europe, the US, and elsewhere - threby crippling competing economies (or so they thought).

That rings alarm bells for me.
So they were suffering, everyone else should, too?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 08, 2020, 05:03:18 PM
UM you do realize the reds make the CIA look like Parks and Recreation
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 05:05:09 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 08, 2020, 04:59:34 PM
So they were suffering, everyone else should, too?
That is my line of thinking. Take everyone else down with them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 08, 2020, 05:36:16 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 08, 2020, 04:57:51 PM
I actually didn't put any effort in.  I could practically recite the ACA at this point. I'd say I've spent close to 2000 hours on it.

I know things I never wanted to know, and reduced people to risk and numbers.

I don't do that anymore.  :)
I appreciate anyone with expertise in that area. The American system has a lot of problems. My mother recently went through chemo due to lymphoma. That want actually too bad. What was bad is that Aetna wouldn't approve an MRI until she went through physical therapy. That resulted in a shattered femur where the tumor was. She can no longer walk, but at least they ordered an MRI after that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 08, 2020, 05:37:23 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 03:16:28 PM
I chose your post to respond to, because it was the most recent one.  But your response was unwarranted and aggressive.

So now I'll match your tone-- get bent.  I'll be deleting political posts on this thread.  Don't like it?  Go somewhere else.


Now I will elevate and match your tone.  Go to hell asshat. 🖕
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 05:43:58 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on June 08, 2020, 05:36:16 PM
I appreciate anyone with expertise in that area. The American system has a lot of problems. My mother recently went through chemo due to lymphoma. That want actually too bad. What was bad is that Aetna wouldn't approve an MRI until she went through physical therapy. That resulted in a shattered femur where the tumor was. She can no longer walk, but at least they ordered an MRI after that.
My Ma (RIP) had Medicare and Blue Cross supplements, and was never denied anything, ever.

I've heard bad things about Aetna. I once had United, and it was no gouda.

Now I have Blue Cross PPO, and have for about 25 years now. I'll never switch that, even though it costs more. It's well worth it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 08, 2020, 05:50:20 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 08, 2020, 04:59:34 PM
So they were suffering, everyone else should, too?
I highly doubt this was their reasoning. If they intended on using this disease as a weapon it was to strategically gain ground on America. Not out of some reason of spite- where oh we are suffering so we will make everyone else suffer too! The Chinese communist government stated goal is to upset the world order and end American hegemony and to replace America as the dominant world power. They explicitly state this. We should believe people when they say things. They say it and they mean it.

I don't think this virus was engineered in a lab at all. There is zero evidence for that. There is however some circumstantial evidence that it was a naturally occurring virus in bats- which makes sense- bats are literally host to thousands of viruses- and it spread through a lab accident. What there is a concrete evidence of is the Chinese communist party at first ignoring the threat of the virus and then immediately engaging in a cover-up of epic proportions once higher-ups in the party realized this thing was a lot more serious than the SARS virus they deal with just 15-16 years earlier. Xi is probably the most authoritarian leader that China has had since Mao. Makes sense that he'd try to cover this up as tightly as possible or even perhaps use it as a weapon.

This guy lived in China for 10+ years, is fluent in Mandarin and married a Chinese woman and had a baby with her before moving back to America last year because of things getting so bad in China. And I think he pretty much cracked the Coronavirus code- I think he makes a great case- everyone should watch this.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 06:10:52 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 08, 2020, 05:37:23 PM
Now I will elevate and match your tone.  Go to hell asshat. 🖕
Lulz.  What a little snowflake you are.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 06:12:29 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 05:43:58 PM
My Ma (RIP) had Medicare and Blue Cross supplements, and was never denied anything, ever.

I've heard bad things about Aetna. I once had United, and it was no gouda.

Now I have Blue Cross PPO, and have for about 25 years now. I'll never switch that, even though it costs more. It's well worth it.
My company has Aetna.  I don't love it.  And they're so tough to work with, apparently, that my i s c & a aggie wife's PT clinic won't even take our insurance.  Lucky for me, I get the services for free. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 08, 2020, 06:15:50 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 04:21:19 PM
I'm fine with it elsewhere, just really trying to keep this thread clean.  And I have to say that any discussion of ACA is bound to be political in nature, ya know?  Anyway, badgerfan said it's good to discuss that kind of stuff on the 2020 stream of unconsciousness, and I knew you put a lot of effort into that post so I split it off. :)

I usually try to keep my discussions boring and technocratic, tyvm. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 08, 2020, 06:34:59 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 06:10:52 PM
Lulz.  What a little snowflake you are.


Nice.  I will let you have the last word.  I get the sense that’s important to you. I hope we meet some day and can just laugh this off. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2020, 06:36:55 PM
Maybe we should rename this thread "Conspiracy Theories about the 'Rona"?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 07:46:07 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 04:43:57 PM
Yeah here in Texico, Houston is really driving the recent upward trend in hospitalizations.  Dallas, San Antonio, and Austin have remained relatively flat over the past month.

So the interesting thing would be, to attempt to tease out WHY Houston might be different than other cities in Texas.  And then use that information to help course correct where possible.  With numbers as low as they are compared to overall population, something as simple as a single large nursing home getting hit, could spike the numbers dramatically.


the are only 2 states that have done more testing then Texas so Im not overly alarmed because deaths and hospitalizations are still trending down

as I pointed out earlier we really dont know what effects the protesting is having

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 08:27:35 PM
Well @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) is going to love this story...

https://abcnews.go.com/International/satellite-data-suggests-coronavirus-hit-china-earlier-researchers/story?id=71123270 (https://abcnews.go.com/International/satellite-data-suggests-coronavirus-hit-china-earlier-researchers/story?id=71123270)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on June 08, 2020, 08:35:30 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 07:46:07 PM
the are only 2 states that have done more testing then Texas so Im not overly alarmed because deaths and hospitalizations are still trending down

as I pointed out earlier we really dont know what effects the protesting is having


I should hope so. There's only one state bigger than three-fourths of Texas. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 08:40:06 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 08:27:35 PM
Well @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) is going to love this story...

https://abcnews.go.com/International/satellite-data-suggests-coronavirus-hit-china-earlier-researchers/story?id=71123270 (https://abcnews.go.com/International/satellite-data-suggests-coronavirus-hit-china-earlier-researchers/story?id=71123270)


the reason I find that story hard to believe is if China had the virus that early we would have gotten it much earlier and that doesnt seem to be the case
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 08:41:11 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on June 08, 2020, 08:35:30 PM
I should hope so. There's only one state bigger than three-fourths of Texas.
not bragging just stating facts that may account for the uptick in cases 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 08, 2020, 08:50:58 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 08, 2020, 05:50:20 PM
This guy lived in China for 10+ years, is fluent in Mandarin and married a Chinese woman and had a baby with her before moving back to America last year because of things getting so bad in China. And I think he pretty much cracked the Coronavirus code- I think he makes a great case- everyone should watch this.
So he speaks the tongue and married a native is not exactly the conclusions of Elliot Ness.But he could be right so I'll have to rule on it later
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 08, 2020, 08:58:17 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on June 08, 2020, 05:36:16 PM
I appreciate anyone with expertise in that area. The American system has a lot of problems. My mother recently went through chemo due to lymphoma. That want actually too bad. What was bad is that Aetna wouldn't approve an MRI until she went through physical therapy. That resulted in a shattered femur where the tumor was. She can no longer walk, but at least they ordered an MRI after that.
That's crazy Sam sorry about that.I have a cracked glenoid & ripped Labrum none of which could be helped by PT even the DR diagnosing said that but warned me I'd have go thru their motions - it's really counter productive.And not to be a dick but i would be tempted to lawyer up,that's horse shit what the did to her
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 09:29:24 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 08, 2020, 06:34:59 PM
Nice.  I will let you have the last word.  I get the sense that’s important to you. I hope we meet some day and can just laugh this off.
And you would. Trust me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 09:34:31 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 08, 2020, 08:27:35 PM
Well @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) is going to love this story...

https://abcnews.go.com/International/satellite-data-suggests-coronavirus-hit-china-earlier-researchers/story?id=71123270 (https://abcnews.go.com/International/satellite-data-suggests-coronavirus-hit-china-earlier-researchers/story?id=71123270)


Impossible. China doesn't lie about anything. The CCP is forthcoming and should be trusted. As should the WHO (teenage wasteland is taking on a new meaning).




https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152



C (https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152)arry, on, carry on. As Freddy would say.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 08, 2020, 11:19:02 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 09:34:31 PM
Impossible. China doesn't lie about anything. The CCP is forthcoming and should be trusted. As should the WHO (teenage wasteland is taking on a new meaning).




https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152



C (https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152)arry, on, carry on. As Freddy would say.
WHO = Wuhan Health Org.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 08, 2020, 11:26:38 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 08, 2020, 09:34:31 PM
Impossible. China doesn't lie about anything. The CCP is forthcoming and should be trusted. As should the WHO (teenage wasteland is taking on a new meaning).




https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152



C (https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152)arry, on, carry on. As Freddy would say.
We *almost* know China lied about the severity of the infection.  This wouldn’t surprise me. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 08, 2020, 11:39:05 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 08, 2020, 11:26:38 PM
We *almost* know China lied about the severity of the infection.  This wouldn’t surprise me.
Almost? Lol. We know they lied about that. Their infection/fatality numbers were complete horseshit.

And thanks to leaked internal Chinese government documents we know they knew it was transmissible human to human and lied about it saying it wasn’t- and they then let their citizens from Wuhan travel all over the world while they locked people from Wuhan down from traveling within China.

They are motherf’ers. Karma is a bitch though. They’ll get theirs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 09, 2020, 01:00:35 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on June 08, 2020, 04:06:00 PM
Buckeyes returned to voluntary workouts today
Sooners don't come back until 1 July.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 09, 2020, 01:10:50 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/do0m3W0.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/BjkOvbA.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 09, 2020, 01:11:51 AM
On a lighter note, the director's name is Dr. Cara Christ, so the article is like "Christ this" and "Christ that."

Back to the heavier note...
(https://i.imgur.com/PTiVcff.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 09, 2020, 07:01:03 AM
Georgia is still flat.  With all the media coverage of states that "opened too soon" and are seeing a spike, Georgia is never mentioned.

I guess we're special.  Or something.  I guess the notion this was "seasonal" is shown to be incorrect.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 08:03:09 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 08:40:06 PM
the reason I find that story hard to believe is if China had the virus that early we would have gotten it much earlier and that doesnt seem to be the case
You might recall a study out of California that this thing was actually there as early as November.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 09, 2020, 08:11:43 AM
There is a lot of suspect "information" out there, some of which probably is correct, but most of it is speculative and salted with words like "could" and "might" and "possible".  It may take some time to develop an accurate depiction of what transpired.  I'm not going to cherry pick reports that comport with what I would like to be the case.

I'm a bit surprised - and perhaps it has been done - no one has offered a fairly broad scale report of AB testing to see how widely this has spread using a representative sample of the population.  I've seen some local studies here and there, and I've heard anecdotal reports that a person was sick back in November, but I can't make much of that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 08:12:45 AM
It's interesting to follow some of this stuff. I do wonder why Arizona doesn't have more beds available in their hospitals. 


https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/arizona (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/arizona)


They have done a good job of increasing their testing there, although it's fallen off a bit lately. Maybe there are not as many people with systems getting tested? The resources are there to do more.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 09, 2020, 08:50:04 AM
My son returned to his office yesterday and all seemed to go well
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 09:20:20 AM
We're not doing that yet. A lot of people are still uncomfortable being in an office. Plus, we are still waiting on a contract for upgraded cleaning/sanitizing companies. I think a lot of people are waiting for that. Good business to be in, right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 09, 2020, 09:22:11 AM
yes many states are having an up tick in positive cases

what I want to know is just how long will it be before we can start blaming some of this on the millions who protested and not only because a state opened up

the media never mentions that possibility
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 09, 2020, 09:23:39 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 09, 2020, 09:22:11 AM
the media never mentions that possibility
What media are you consuming? 

For some reason, I see a consistent tactic where you claim "the media" is not discussing something, which I've seen brought up many times in "the media"... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 09, 2020, 09:25:03 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 09:20:20 AM
We're not doing that yet. A lot of people are still uncomfortable being in an office. Plus, we are still waiting on a contract for upgraded cleaning/sanitizing companies. I think a lot of people are waiting for that. Good business to be in, right now.
I hear you 

my sons building where his office is was cleaned and sanitized several times prior to their return to work

also the practice safe distancing and wear masks in elevators 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 09:26:53 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 09, 2020, 09:23:39 AM
What media are you consuming?

For some reason, I see a consistent tactic where you claim "the media" is not discussing something, which I've seen brought up many times in "the media"...
Right now it's more popular to talk about the states that opened up having a spike, rather than talk about the effects of the protests.

Both ideas are out there, however, but as I said, one is more popular than the other. I do a check of 11 websites every morning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 09, 2020, 09:29:01 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 09, 2020, 09:23:39 AM
What media are you consuming?

For some reason, I see a consistent tactic where you claim "the media" is not discussing something, which I've seen brought up many times in "the media"...
I look at all stations and never see it mentioned

but hey if Im wrong then I'll look again today 

so far if your protesting then that cant affect the spread of the virus seems to be the theme

please aim me toward and network which sights protesting as the possible reason for an up tick in positive cases

and I'll gladly admit I was wrong
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 09, 2020, 09:41:51 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 09, 2020, 09:29:01 AM
I look at all stations and never see it mentioned

but hey if Im wrong then I'll look again today

so far if your protesting then that cant affect the spread of the virus seems to be the theme

please aim me toward and network which sights protesting as the possible reason for an up tick in positive cases

and I'll gladly admit I was wrong

I don't "watch" the news, but here's a smattering:


And that was from the first page of google results, without relying on any particularly sketchy sources.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 09, 2020, 10:03:49 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 09, 2020, 09:41:51 AM
I don't "watch" the news, but here's a smattering:

  • CBS: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/scott-gottlieb-coronavirus-protests-face-the-nation/ (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/scott-gottlieb-coronavirus-protests-face-the-nation/)
  • NBC: https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/protests-could-spread-coronavirus-second-wave-was-coming-demonstrations-ncna1216911 (https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/protests-could-spread-coronavirus-second-wave-was-coming-demonstrations-ncna1216911) (in this one it's primarily the headline discussing it, and one of the first paragraphs as well, but it's not focused on the protests)
  • CNN: https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/01/health/protests-coronavirus-spread-concerns/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/01/health/protests-coronavirus-spread-concerns/index.html)
  • 11 Alive (Georgia): https://www.11alive.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-numbers/how-georgia-protests-impact-covid-19-cases/85-1d8d719a-7b36-46bb-b157-628442ad8315 (https://www.11alive.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-numbers/how-georgia-protests-impact-covid-19-cases/85-1d8d719a-7b36-46bb-b157-628442ad8315)
  • NY Times (okay, print, but it is the "liberal media"): https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/31/health/protests-coronavirus.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/31/health/protests-coronavirus.html)

And that was from the first page of google results, without relying on any particularly sketchy sources.


all of these are examples of raising the possibility of the protests increase virus spread but none of them reflect the recent spike being casued by protesting

instead the current spike is always tied to the "early" opening up of the state
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 09, 2020, 10:23:10 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 09, 2020, 10:03:49 AM
all of these are examples of raising the possibility of the protests increase virus spread but none of them reflect the recent spike being casued by protesting

instead the current spike is always tied to the "early" opening up of the state
The 11Alive piece lays out quite clearly the fact that there is a "lag time" in the data due both to the incubation period of the virus and that generally it takes several days to get results back.

If the protests were leading to a spike, it wouldn't likely happen until this week and next week. Prior to that, while it might be causing another spike, the numbers will be too small to notice against the normal infection rate.

Edit: Oh, and you're moving the goalposts here. Your original complaint was that the media was saying that the protests can't contribute to spreading the virus, which I believe I showed that mainstream media sources were not merely speculating, but CBS News "Face the Nation" brought on a former FDA official who outright said it WOULD spread the virus. Now you're saying that you were incorrect regarding the media reporting, but other unnamed "media" are saying that existing spikes are due to reopening too early. How about you identify those media sources... I showed you mine ;-) 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 10:32:17 AM
It's been two weeks. It started in Minneapolis one day after the absurd murder. We'd be seeing it now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 09, 2020, 10:45:24 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 10:32:17 AM
It's been two weeks. It started in Minneapolis one day after the absurd murder. We'd be seeing it now.
maybe we are but the only thing you hear or read about when talking about a states spike is the fact that they opened early in kind of a I told ya so rant

but I'll be patient and wait another week but if there is still a spike in a week lets just see if theres any mention that the protests might be a cause

that should be interesting
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 09, 2020, 10:47:01 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 10:32:17 AM
It's been two weeks. It started in Minneapolis one day after the absurd murder. We'd be seeing it now.
So far Minnesota isn't showing a spike. As always, daily numbers are a crapshoot, but the trend remains downward.

https://www.minnpost.com/health/2020/03/tracking-the-minnesota-covid-19-numbers/ (https://www.minnpost.com/health/2020/03/tracking-the-minnesota-covid-19-numbers/)

So I guess the media is right... You can't spread it at a protest. :57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 09, 2020, 10:48:55 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 09, 2020, 10:23:10 AM
The 11Alive piece lays out quite clearly the fact that there is a "lag time" in the data due both to the incubation period of the virus and that generally it takes several days to get results back.

If the protests were leading to a spike, it wouldn't likely happen until this week and next week. Prior to that, while it might be causing another spike, the numbers will be too small to notice against the normal infection rate.

Edit: Oh, and you're moving the goalposts here. Your original complaint was that the media was saying that the protests can't contribute to spreading the virus, which I believe I showed that mainstream media sources were not merely speculating, but CBS News "Face the Nation" brought on a former FDA official who outright said it WOULD spread the virus. Now you're saying that you were incorrect regarding the media reporting, but other unnamed "media" are saying that existing spikes are due to reopening too early. How about you identify those media sources... I showed you mine ;-)
I never meant to say the media never said the protests might cause more cases in the future

I was talking about the present

If a state opened up early thats the cause with no consideration to the protests but again if its too early then lets wait a week and see
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 09, 2020, 10:49:54 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 09, 2020, 10:47:01 AM
So far Minnesota isn't showing a spike. As always, daily numbers are a crapshoot, but the trend remains downward.

https://www.minnpost.com/health/2020/03/tracking-the-minnesota-covid-19-numbers/ (https://www.minnpost.com/health/2020/03/tracking-the-minnesota-covid-19-numbers/)

So I guess the media is right... You can't spread it at a protest. :57:
right neither is Georgia but NY Texas and California is
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 09, 2020, 10:51:26 AM
Im not hoping for spikes in fact I want football again so if protesting wont cause spikes great maybe football wont either
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: rolltidefan on June 09, 2020, 10:52:11 AM
it's asinine to think that the protests aren't having an effect on the spike.
it's equally asinine to think states opening up also isn't having an effect.

it also seems most people have forgotten what the quarantine's purpose is/was. it never was to rid us of the virus, only to slow the spread, "flatten the curve". it was always expected a huge number of people will get it, we just didn't need them all to get it at once. whether or not we've flattened it enough to open up, i don't have a clue. but anyone thinking we should stay bunkerred down until it passes completely, has lost it. at some point, we have to move on with life. me and my wife/family are trying to navigate that with wisdom, which is insanely hard.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 10:58:13 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 09, 2020, 10:47:01 AM
So far Minnesota isn't showing a spike. As always, daily numbers are a crapshoot, but the trend remains downward.

https://www.minnpost.com/health/2020/03/tracking-the-minnesota-covid-19-numbers/ (https://www.minnpost.com/health/2020/03/tracking-the-minnesota-covid-19-numbers/)

So I guess the media is right... You can't spread it at a protest. :57:
I'm really starting to believe that far more people have had this thing than I thought earlier.

I know I travelled extensively from Thanksgiving through March 1, which was my last time on a plane. I also know that nobody was wearing masks then, and I know the airports and airplanes were packed.

I know that until the shutdown in Illinois happened, millions of people used public transportation, daily. Offices were open. People were in close contact.

Again, nobody was wearing masks, as we were told by the CDC that we didn't need to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 09, 2020, 10:58:56 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 09, 2020, 10:49:54 AM
right neither is Georgia but NY Texas and California is
California isn't showing a spike. Daily new cases are increasing, but that's a trend that's been going on for weeks and doesn't show any clear inflection point in the trendline in the last week that could be attributed to protests.

Texas is showing a spike, but how big you label the "spike" depends largely on whether you measure from the previous peak (mid-May with a 7 day ma of over 1200 cases/day) or whether you measure from the previous local minimum (late-May w/ 7 day ma of around 1000 cases/day). That said, the 7 day ma of cases climbed to over 1500 in about 10-11 days. Given how big of a state Texas is, I think you'd want to get more granular on where the case numbers are jumping and whether that correlates to where the biggest protests were, to determine if it's due to reopening or due to protests. 

NY isn't showing a spike at all. Numbers aren't even ticking up. The 7 day ma line is trending down and has been for weeks now. 

My site (worldometers.info) doesn't call out GA specifically with daily graphs yet. The 11Alive piece did say that the downward trend of hospitalizations due to COVID just reversed and ticked upwards for the first time in weeks. But that was a story specifically talking about how protests could cause new cases, so clearly it wasn't attributing the spike to Kemp and reopening. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 09, 2020, 10:59:34 AM
The important metrics are hospital bed/ICU bed/ventilator capacity.  If those aren't being overwhelmed, then we're on the right path.  If the trend is too steep and those facilities do start becoming overwhelmed, then corrective action is warranted.

I'm not sure what that corrective action might be, though.  People in "free states" aren't about to allow themselves to be locked down again.  Perhaps a mandate for masks to be worn indoors at all times in all places might be somewhat effective.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 09, 2020, 11:04:31 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 09, 2020, 10:58:56 AM
California isn't showing a spike. Daily new cases are increasing, but that's a trend that's been going on for weeks and doesn't show any clear inflection point in the trendline in the last week that could be attributed to protests.

Texas is showing a spike, but how big you label the "spike" depends largely on whether you measure from the previous peak (mid-May with a 7 day ma of over 1200 cases/day) or whether you measure from the previous local minimum (late-May w/ 7 day ma of around 1000 cases/day). That said, the 7 day ma of cases climbed to over 1500 in about 10-11 days. Given how big of a state Texas is, I think you'd want to get more granular on where the case numbers are jumping and whether that correlates to where the biggest protests were, to determine if it's due to reopening or due to protests.

NY isn't showing a spike at all. Numbers aren't even ticking up. The 7 day ma line is trending down and has been for weeks now.

My site (worldometers.info) doesn't call out GA specifically with daily graphs yet. The 11Alive piece did say that the downward trend of hospitalizations due to COVID just reversed and ticked upwards for the first time in weeks. But that was a story specifically talking about how protests could cause new cases, so clearly it wasn't attributing the spike to Kemp and reopening.

Texas is trending upward mostly in the Houston metro over the past 7 days.  Dallas, Austin, San Antonio are relatively flat.  I have no idea whether or not protests were larger/closer/more frequent/fewer masks or whatever, in Houston, compared to what we saw in Austin and Dallas.

Also, this site has daily graphs for all states:

https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/COVID-19SeeYourState/YourStateKeys

 (https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/COVID-19SeeYourState/YourStateKeys)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 09, 2020, 11:50:45 AM
https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/)

Georgia hospitalization rates are trending down, slowly.  There was an increase from 783 to 819 three days ago.  A "tick up" could be the start of a trend, or not.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 09, 2020, 12:03:11 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 10:58:13 AM
I'm really starting to believe that far more people have had this thing than I thought earlier.
But so far the limited antibody testing we have hasn't borne that out. Only in NY did we see significant number of positive antibody tests. In Santa Clara county, which SHOULD have been a hot spot due to heavy international travel to/from Asia in general and China in particular, heavy Chinese population, etc. Yet the numbers were never high.

I don't know why we're not hearing more about the antibody numbers... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 12:05:28 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 09, 2020, 12:03:11 PM
But so far the limited antibody testing we have hasn't borne that out. Only in NY did we see significant number of positive antibody tests. In Santa Clara county, which SHOULD have been a hot spot due to heavy international travel to/from Asia in general and China in particular, heavy Chinese population, etc. Yet the numbers were never high.

I don't know why we're not hearing more about the antibody numbers...
This.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 09, 2020, 12:11:31 PM
dont they have some problems with antibody testing that have not been solved yet like a lot of false results
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 09, 2020, 12:15:07 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 09, 2020, 12:11:31 PM
dont they have some problems with antibody testing that have not been solved yet like a lot of false results
My understanding is not that the tests are bad, but that the prevalence of infection is so low. The very low false positive rates is still too high to be predictive when you have such a low incidence rate.

This is not much of an issue in places like NYC (although people complained about potential selection bias of the study), where the prevalence is much higher. But in Santa Clara where they only measured a 1.5% infection rate with a test that had somewhere between 0.3% and 0.8% false positive rate (95%CI), it's possible that up to half or more of the positive results could be false positives. You simply can't trust those results for any useful purpose.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: rolltidefan on June 09, 2020, 12:24:30 PM
alabama is trending up. last week it was a pretty stark trend upwards, this week seems to be leveling out, but still upward.

tuscaloosa, in particular, saw a spike in new cases last week. of the total confirmed cases in tuscaloosa, over 30% were in the last week/week and a half (this was as of 6/5/20). that's fairly alarming...

until you consider the gross numbers. that total was around 750 (it's up to about 850 now). out of 200,000 (pop of tuscaloosa county), 750 had it confirmed. that's less than 1/2 of 1%. so is 850 now. and a significant portion of those cases (~40%) were in nursing homes, county jail and a mental institution, which were all hit within the last 2 weeks. so it's not really getting spread through the general population... yet.

i'm torn on the issue. the gross numbers are still so low it's ridiculous. but the trend is going up and at an alarming rate. where is the intersection in which i should be taking major precautions vs not worrying? i don't know. not to mention how many are going unconfirmed and spreading it. testing is still lacking both from a need and the general populations "want to" for lack of a better term. it's perplexing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 09, 2020, 12:25:47 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 09, 2020, 12:03:11 PM
But so far the limited antibody testing we have hasn't borne that out. Only in NY did we see significant number of positive antibody tests. In Santa Clara county, which SHOULD have been a hot spot due to heavy international travel to/from Asia in general and China in particular, heavy Chinese population, etc. Yet the numbers were never high.

I don't know why we're not hearing more about the antibody numbers...
One doc I know from another site, who lives and works in Chicago, is saying there's a growing belief that blood type is a major operator.  Not only are they seeing fewer Type O cases that get bad, at this point they're almost not seeing any type O at all.  He and his healthcare group are now speculating that a large chunk of Type O people already basically have immunity to it.  

This is not a peer-reviewed study or anything like that, just his observations combined with the observations of hundreds of docs that are all in his same group.

IF the above is true, it might explain the lack of antibodies in various groups.  Type O is the most common blood type in the US, it's possible that a percentage of people with Type O blood have been exposed to it, but already had immunity with no need for antibodies ever to be produced since the virus wasn't able to penetrate the cells in the first place.

Here's one article on it:

https://blog.23andme.com/23andme-research/23andme-finds-evidence-that-blood-type-plays-a-role-in-covid-19/

 (https://blog.23andme.com/23andme-research/23andme-finds-evidence-that-blood-type-plays-a-role-in-covid-19/)And here's a little bit about the mechanism that could be responsible for this phenomenon:

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200603/Blood-group-type-may-affect-susceptibility-to-COVID-19-respiratory-failure.aspx
 (https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200603/Blood-group-type-may-affect-susceptibility-to-COVID-19-respiratory-failure.aspx)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 09, 2020, 12:30:29 PM
And just for the record, I am blood type O- so it looks like I am superior to those of you with A,B, or AB.  Suck it, losers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 12:37:38 PM
I'm type O as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 09, 2020, 12:38:24 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 12:37:38 PM
I'm type O as well.
Nice.  We will rule over the inferior blood types with an iron fist.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 12:50:54 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 09, 2020, 12:38:24 PM
Nice.  We will rule over the inferior blood types with an iron fist.
I thought we already did?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 09, 2020, 12:58:34 PM
no idea of what type of blood I have......

been a while since I've given blood
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 09, 2020, 01:11:44 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/09/who-scrambles-to-clarify-comments-on-asymptomatic-coronavirus-spread-much-is-still-unknown.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/09/who-scrambles-to-clarify-comments-on-asymptomatic-coronavirus-spread-much-is-still-unknown.html)

Well, if you had doubts about WHO on the first base, this will add to them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 09, 2020, 01:12:14 PM
I'd pull their funding
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 09, 2020, 01:13:07 PM
That really is inexcusable.  Totally.  I didn't pay them much attention anyway, but that is clearly incompetence in communications.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 09, 2020, 01:19:13 PM
FACT OF THE DAY:

Twenty-five million people die each year from contaminated water. Provided by FactRetriever.com

https://www.factretriever.com/tap-water-facts (https://www.factretriever.com/tap-water-facts)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 09, 2020, 01:30:05 PM
Drink Beer!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 09, 2020, 01:32:45 PM
I noted elsewhere that the Chinese working on the transcontinental RR stayed healthier than others because they drank only weak tea from boiled water.

Wine and beer became popular because you wouldn't usually get sick by drinking them, the same with cider.  My bud in France related to me how they drink cider all year because the water was bad.  He noted the cider got rather nasty just before they made new.  This was in Brittany prewar.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 01:46:08 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 09, 2020, 01:13:07 PM
That really is inexcusable.  Totally.  I didn't pay them much attention anyway, but that is clearly incompetence in communications.
I'm done with the Wuhon Health Organization.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 09, 2020, 01:53:55 PM


Why?They've done such a bang up job making sure China was over the hump - ask them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 09, 2020, 01:57:01 PM
Coronavirus might not kill half as many folks on the planet as contaminated water

where's the outrage?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 09, 2020, 02:20:41 PM
This is some ridiculous sh!t. 

https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2020/06/08/nichole-quick-resigns-orange-county-coronavirus/ (https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2020/06/08/nichole-quick-resigns-orange-county-coronavirus/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 02:42:16 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 13, 2020, 08:30:24 AM
I've got Amazon delivering 16 pallets of toilet paper to my home this afternoon, so I'm good.


Still holding up?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 02:47:14 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 15, 2020, 02:16:16 AM

More news from China

执㝧执瑩浻牡楧㩮㔱硰执㝧执獧浻牡楧敬瑦瀰絸朣杢㑳执獧扻捡杫潲湵潣潬㩲昣昸昸㬸慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧敷止瑩札慲楤湥楬敮牡氬晥⁴潴敬瑦戠瑯潴牦浯㡦㡦㡦潴捥捥捥戻捡杫潲湵浩条㩥眭扥楫楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散戻捡杫潲湵浩条㩥洭穯氭湩慥牧摡敩瑮琨灯㡦㡦㡦捥捥捥㬩慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧獭氭湩慥牧摡敩瑮琨灯㡦㡦㡦捥捥捥㬩慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散戻捡杫潲湵浩u条㩥楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散汩整㩲牰杯摩䐺䥘慭敧牔湡晳牯楍牣獯景牧摡敩瑮猨慴瑲潃潬卲牴昣昸昸䔬摮潃潬卲牴攣散散㬩潢摲牥硰猠汯摩⌠㙣㙣㙣搻獩汰祡戺潬正潭潢摲牥爭摡畩㩳瀲㭸漭戭牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰敷止瑩戭牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰戻牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰执獧搴摻獩汰祡戺潬正瀻獯瑩潩㩮敲慬楴敶执獧搴筮楤灳慬㩹湩楬敮戭潬正漻敶晲潬
 朣楢琴执㝧执瑩浻牡楧㩮㔱硰执㝧执獧浻牡楧敬瑦瀰絸朣杢㑳执獧扻捡杫潲湵潣潬㩲昣昸昸㬸慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧敷止瑩札慲楤湥楬敮牡氬晥⁴潴敬瑦戠瑯潴牦浯㡦㡦㡦潴捥捥捥戻捡杫潲湵浩条㩥眭扥楫楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散戻捡杫潲湵浩条㩥洭穯氭湩慥牧摡敩瑮琨灯㡦㡦㡦捥捥捥㬩慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧獭氭湩慥牧摡敩瑮琨灯㡦㡦㡦捥捥捥㬩慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散戻捡杫潲湵浩u条㩥楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散汩整㩲牰杯摩䐺䥘慭敧牔湡晳牯楍牣獯景牧摡敩瑮猨慴瑲潃潬卲牴昣昸昸䔬摮潃潬卲牴攣散散㬩潢摲牥硰猠汯摩⌠㙣㙣㙣搻獩汰祡戺潬正潭潢摲牥爭摡畩㩳瀲㭸漭戭牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰敷止瑩戭牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰戻牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰执獧搴摻

If I hear anything else,  I’ll let you know.




Anything new?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 02:51:32 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on March 15, 2020, 12:08:55 AM
To avoid that, trust Anthony Fauci.
I think most people did. The curve flattened.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 09, 2020, 02:58:51 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 02:42:16 PM
Still holding up?
Ha!  Yeah, we're good for a decade or so.  Good thing I'd just cleaned out the garage and built a shed when this all started... :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 09, 2020, 03:22:39 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 02:47:14 PM
Anything new?
😂😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 09, 2020, 03:29:52 PM
Georgia reported cases are creeping up.  May 24 had a 7 day average of 584.  Current is 720.  It's not a huge trend, but it's fairly clear now.  Hospitalization is up a bit also.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 09, 2020, 03:35:39 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 09, 2020, 09:29:01 AM
I look at all stations and never see it mentioned

but hey if Im wrong then I'll look again today

so far if your protesting then that cant affect the spread of the virus seems to be the theme
bullshit

please aim me toward and network which sights protesting as the possible reason for an up tick in positive cases  as previously said, there's a delay

and I'll gladly admit I was wrong
bullshit again
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 09, 2020, 03:42:19 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 09, 2020, 09:22:11 AM
yes many states are having an up tick in positive cases

what I want to know is just how long will it be before we can start blaming some of this on the millions who protested and not only because a state opened up

the media never mentions that possibility
^^^^^this is your problem

You can't speed up reality, bud.  Most states opened up before George Floyd was murdered.  Why are you in a hurry about this?  Why?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 09, 2020, 03:45:50 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 09, 2020, 03:42:19 PM
^^^^^this is your problem

You can't speed up reality, bud.  Most states opened up before George Floyd was murdered.  Why are you in a hurry about this?  Why?
OAM where ya been man?

Auditioning for 20 mule team borax?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 09, 2020, 03:47:52 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 09, 2020, 03:45:50 PM
OAM where ya been man?

Auditioning for 20 mule team borax?
Aww, you missed me.

Been shipping out orders of Whoa Nellie!  3 new orders out today.
First order from Alabama, actually:  '71 UGA, '72 Tenn, '72 Bama, '72 Barn
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 09, 2020, 03:50:08 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 09, 2020, 03:47:52 PM
Aww, you missed me.

Been shipping out orders of Whoa Nellie!  3 new orders out today.
First order from Alabama, actually:  '71 UGA, '72 Tenn, '72 Bama, '72 Barn
thats great


glad to hear business is good
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 09, 2020, 03:56:35 PM
Actually, my sales graph mimics Covid graphs, except mine started in Sept:


(https://i.imgur.com/h8ST3vt.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 03:58:49 PM
You should probably start thinking about a manufacturer. In the USA, of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 09, 2020, 04:01:36 PM
Georgia technically started opening April 23.  We would have expected a surge to show up in about two weeks, if that opening was the start of it.  That didn't happen.  The protests happened rough 11 days ago, so we'd expect to see a reaction from that about now.

Of course, there is no way to distinguish between possible causes without more information.  The worst day was May 1 with 1230 reported new cases.  That was evidence, for some, that reopening was leading to a surge, but things quieted down considerably from that point, and the national news started looking for other states to discuss.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 09, 2020, 04:13:07 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 09, 2020, 04:01:36 PM
Georgia technically started opening April 23.  We would have expected a surge to show up in about two weeks, if that opening was the start of it.  That didn't happen.  The protests happened rough 11 days ago, so we'd expect to see a reaction from that about now.

Of course, there is no way to distinguish between possible causes without more information.  The worst day was May 1 with 1230 reported new cases.  That was evidence, for some, that reopening was leading to a surge, but things quieted down considerably from that point, and the national news started looking for other states to discuss.
Yeah Texas began reopening on May 1.  Hospitalizations remained pretty steady through all of May, until they started climbing about a week ago, mostly in Houston.  Not sure what that means.

I could speculate that the "reopening" on May 1 wasn't much different than what was going on before it, but slowly over the month, people's interactions increased, and the 7-day trend we're looking at now, is a result of the latency in activity from the moment people were officially allowed to move about, until they actually did so.

But that's just speculation, and doesn't explain why this seems to be occurring in Houston, but not in Austin or Dallas or SA.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 09, 2020, 04:17:50 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 09, 2020, 04:13:07 PM
Yeah Texas began reopening on May 1.  Hospitalizations remained pretty steady through all of May, until they started climbing about a week ago, mostly in Houston.  Not sure what that means.

I could speculate that the "reopening" on May 1 wasn't much different than what was going on before it, but slowly over the month, people's interactions increased, and the 7-day trend we're looking at now, is a result of the latency in activity from the moment people were officially allowed to move about, until they actually did so.

But that's just speculation, and doesn't explain why this seems to be occurring in Houston, but not in Austin or Dallas or SA.


Houston has less type O people
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 09, 2020, 04:20:30 PM
It's impossible to rule out the protests as a reason for an observed increased happening over the past few days.  Logically, one would expect that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 09, 2020, 04:22:03 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 09, 2020, 04:17:50 PM
Houston has less type O people
Oklahoma?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 09, 2020, 04:25:29 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 09, 2020, 04:20:30 PM
It's impossible to rule out the protests as a reason for an observed increased happening over the past few days.  Logically, one would expect that.
youre baiting me thats not fair
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 09, 2020, 04:26:24 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 09, 2020, 04:22:03 PM
Oklahoma?
blood type O might have less positive cases according to some sources
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 09, 2020, 04:48:02 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 03:58:49 PM
You should probably start thinking about a manufacturer. In the USA, of course.
Not China?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 04:51:17 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 09, 2020, 04:48:02 PM
Not China?
F China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 09, 2020, 05:12:15 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 08:03:09 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 08, 2020, 08:40:06 PM (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/sports-and-coronavirus/msg224436/#msg224436)
Quote
the reason I find that story hard to believe is if China had the virus that early we would have gotten it much earlier and that doesnt seem to be the case


You might recall a study out of California that this thing was actually there as early as November.
There were two waves that hit the USA.  One was directly from China, and seems to have mostly affected the West Coast.  The other was from China by way of Europe, and came in mostly through New York.  Something like 60% of the COVID-19 cases have the variant of the virus that came out of Europe.  The New York state and city authorities told their citizens to go about their normal business for a longish time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 05:21:12 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 09, 2020, 05:12:15 PM


You might recall a study out of California that this thing was actually there as early as November.
There were two waves that hit the USA.  One was directly from China, and seems to have mostly affected the West Coast.  The other was from China by way of Europe, and came in mostly through New York.  Something like 60% of the COVID-19 cases have the variant of the virus that came out of Europe.  The New York state and city authorities told their citizens to go about their normal business for a longish time.
So did a major authority in San Fran. Nobody knew what the hell they were doing in the early stages.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 09, 2020, 07:37:37 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2020, 05:21:12 PM
So did a major authority in San Fran. Nobody knew what the hell they were doing in the early stages.
"First do no harm" is a good philosophy to follow when you don't know what the Hell you are doing.

But, then, quarantining people does do harm, so forget that little lesson.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on June 10, 2020, 12:20:46 AM
It is disturbing the reports I am seeing both in news outlets and from online posters about spiking COVID in Arizona where most of my family of origin now resides. 

Mom and dad are hopefully, and reportedly, home sheltering, but receive guests, to wit: my siblings and their families. They mostly visit outside and maintain distance. My sister posted a video doing mom's hair (she was a police officer by trade, not a hair stylist). Dad is missing most of his hair and cuts what little he has left on his own. At least my sister had a mask on. 

Here in rural Iowa I took surgical masks to my barber over the weekend and asked him to wear one while he cut my hair. He refused. I told him I would be back when the pandemic ends. I have a daughter working with elderly patients who is home for the summer. I am not going to put everyone at greater risk than need be, including myself, or my barber. We have a Cost Cutters franchise and in this town it is the only hair cutting place I am aware of that requires everyone to wear masks. Say what you want about large corporations but some of them do have standards of care.

A day or two later in my barber's town of about 800 I learned there was a nurse at the nursing home who had COVID. Almost at the same time it was announced we had our first COVID-19 death in Delaware County. There are multiple articles from researchers concluding the pandemic would end if there were 80% compliance with wearing masks in public. I know that is somewhat speculative, but at least scientists are postulating it. For years your surgeon, and his staff wore masks. Your dentist wore a mask when you opened your fat mouth in front of him. We know that was for our protection.

Good night, my friends.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 10, 2020, 05:15:55 AM
I did call the lady up North who does my hair, and she is open again. My brother went last night and said she wears a mask, and won't allow anyone in without one. I'll see her next week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 10, 2020, 09:23:00 AM
Barbers and salons officially opened here last week. 

But I cut my sons' hair last night myself anyway. It wasn't a great job, but it'll do. Should get at least one more practice cut before they go back to school. I figure that'll save me $50 each time they need a cut, and doesn't take long at all.

I'll be getting mine cut by my normal girl Friday. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 10, 2020, 09:25:29 AM
I usually go to Great Clips, for seniors it costs $12.  I leave a tip of course.  I think they do a good enough job for me.

This last time I went to the wife's "stylist" and frankly didn't like the haircut that much at all.  He charged me $35 and I gave him $60.  His throughput is well off normal and he's a nice fellow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 10, 2020, 10:03:40 AM
I guess there are some worrying signs out of Texas
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 10, 2020, 11:27:52 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on June 10, 2020, 10:03:40 AM
I guess there are some worrying signs out of Texas
and what would thay be
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 10, 2020, 11:35:13 AM
Travis County (Austin metro area) hospitalizations are actually down slightly week over week.  Dallas is steady as well.  We're seeing increases in hospitalizations in Houston, though, which is what's driving the state's totals up.

I really am curious as to what's driving the differences across the state. But the overall numbers are still low enough that just one Old Folks' Home getting exposed, could drive a large % increase.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 10, 2020, 11:56:56 AM
It's H-Town

nuff said
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 10, 2020, 12:35:58 PM
we have had a slight increase in hospitalizations in the last 5 days

right now Im not too alarmed as our max capacity hospital beds is no where close to being reached

my personal theory is that this is due to both opening up and the protests we should be on the down trend again in 1 to 2 weeks unless of course more protests follow

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 10, 2020, 01:09:41 PM
Just  my speculation, I think we're seeing a general slight upward trend from reopening, a mild spike from Memorial Day Weekend activity, and now perhaps a secondary rise from the protests and riots.  It's going to be really difficult to untangle all of that, and perhaps it's not even really necessary.  As stated, the key metric is hospital/ICU capacity.

But I'm still interested in what's unique about Houston compared to Austin/Dallas/San Antonio when it comes to the recent hospitalization increases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 10, 2020, 01:16:44 PM
Georgia has hot spots, rural counties in the main.  I think a few random events can generate a hot spot especially in low population counties, which Houston is not.  But, as noted, perhaps a few nursing homes there broke down.  NYC was crazy hot for a while.  There is debate about why.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 10, 2020, 01:20:20 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 10, 2020, 12:35:58 PM
my personal theory is that this is due to both opening up and the protests we should be on the down trend again in 1 to 2 weeks unless of course more protests follow
I'm with you, up to the thought that we'll be back on a downtrend after 1 to 2 weeks.

If we see a spike from the protests, it might decline from that spike, but I think the case levels will continue to increase in conjunction with just how much "reopening" is occurring and how complacent individuals are about continuing to physical distance and take basic precautions [like masks]. 

I think that's been the problem here in California all along... While I think we did a great job initially, I suspect that a de facto reopening was occurring far in advance of the state actually allowing it, by people being complacent and finding ways around the restrictions. I know for a fact that there were underground hair/nail salons, people working out of their homes for these services, etc. Our numbers started great, but then they grew, and grew, and grew. Never a spike, but just slow growth. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 10, 2020, 01:35:46 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 10, 2020, 01:09:41 PM
Just  my speculation, I think we're seeing a general slight upward trend from reopening, a mild spike from Memorial Day Weekend activity, and now perhaps a secondary rise from the protests and riots.  It's going to be really difficult to untangle all of that, and perhaps it's not even really necessary.  As stated, the key metric is hospital/ICU capacity.

But I'm still interested in what's unique about Houston compared to Austin/Dallas/San Antonio when it comes to the recent hospitalization increases.
If you look at testing Harris county has had over 200,000 tests while Dallas county has had only 117,000 tests

this might account for the case difference
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 10, 2020, 03:00:14 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on June 10, 2020, 10:03:40 AM
I guess there are some worrying signs out of Texas
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 10, 2020, 11:27:52 AM
and what would thay be
It's full of Texans?  

I can't talk, I was born there.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 10, 2020, 03:28:23 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 10, 2020, 01:35:46 PM
If you look at testing Harris county has had over 200,000 tests while Dallas county has had only 117,000 tests

this might account for the case difference
No, I haven't bothered looking at testing or cases as a metric in months.

Hospitalizations, ICU usage, ventilator usage, and deaths are really the only meaningful metrics to use for tracking trends.  With the understanding of course that each of those lags the preceding one for obvious reasons.  And I'm also not really commenting on the absolute numbers, but instead the deltas-- the %increase DoD or WoW or MoM.

For some reason Houston is trending up more than the other metro areas in Texas, in hospitalizations specifically.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 10, 2020, 03:30:51 PM
Testing now can be both a leading and trailing indicator.  If folks are feeling symptoms, they will be more likely to seek testing.  So, more infected could mean more testing.

And more testing of course could reveal more infected, if you're testing the rep sample.  I'd love to see a break down of who is being tested.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 10, 2020, 05:10:52 PM
My wife had to get tested because she had to have surgery for a breast biopsy.  So there's an oh for one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 10, 2020, 05:35:08 PM
Father in law had to get tested last week for hand surgery--negative as well.

He's one of the ones we worry about getting it, since he has Szogren's Syndrome, an autoimmune disorder. That and being 65 would put him in higher risk group, although he's otherwise very healthy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 10, 2020, 06:01:35 PM
I'm sure many who thinks they have symptoms, and many who just start feeling bad, even GI disorder, gets tested.

I don't know of any study that has tested a rep panel of the pop.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 10, 2020, 07:07:53 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 10, 2020, 06:01:35 PM
I'm sure many who thinks they have symptoms, and many who just start feeling bad, even GI disorder, gets tested.

I don't know of any study that has tested a rep panel of the pop.
they are doing that in nursing homes
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 10, 2020, 07:13:34 PM
Well, a rep panel study to me would be something randomly drawn from every demographic, not just one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 10, 2020, 08:22:12 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 10, 2020, 07:13:34 PM
Well, a rep panel study to me would be something randomly drawn from every demographic, not just one.
I understand but my point is that they are initiating the testing instead of the patient
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 10, 2020, 08:24:12 PM
Virus deaths in the US has now decreased for 7 weeks in a row
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 10, 2020, 10:41:49 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 10, 2020, 05:35:08 PM
Father in law had to get tested last week for hand surgery--negative as well.

He's one of the ones we worry about getting it, since he has Szogren's Syndrome, an autoimmune disorder. That and being 65 would put him in higher risk group, although he's otherwise very healthy.
My esposita has Sjögren syndrome as well.  And lupus.  If there's an allergy or autoimmune disorder to be had, she's got it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2020, 06:28:03 AM
Stock market futures are down pretty far right now on fears of a second wave, or so it is said.

It could also be profit taking.  My investments are up for the year now, on paper.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 11, 2020, 07:20:33 AM
Opening early apparently has caused an alarming spike up.  

The protests have had no impact though.  Lol.  That’s what I learned from my morning reading. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2020, 07:30:27 AM
It's impossible to deconvolute the two things without a lot more information.  The protesters were mostly young, less likely to have bad symptoms.  The bad news is they might not have isolated soon enough to prevent further spread.  If one person in a protest infected 5 and they all return the next night, you get a geometric progression which would be very bad.

Georgia doesn't get mentioned any more, you will notice, even though the state "reopened" soonest.  There were protests here of course, a lot of them.  The hot spots here are mostly rural counties where a single event could cause a spike per capita.  If Atlanta sees a spike, I'd say the protests are implicated.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 11, 2020, 07:35:39 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 11, 2020, 07:30:27 AM
It's impossible to deconvolute the two things without a lot more information.  The protesters were mostly young, less likely to have bad symptoms.  The bad news is they might not have isolated soon enough to prevent further spread.  If one person in a protest infected 5 and they all return the next night, you get a geometric progression which would be very bad.

Georgia doesn't get mentioned any more, you will notice, even though the state "reopened" soonest.  There were protests here of course, a lot of them.  The hot spots here are mostly rural counties where a single event could cause a spike per capita.  If Atlanta sees a spike, I'd say the protests are implicated.


I just read MULTIPLE articles calling out Georgia for their  spike up- and 100% attributing to opening early. Not just Georgia

also- please help me understand this “ it’s ok for young people to protest “ concept.  For 2 months I was bombarded with how selfish young people are for not isolating, going to the beach, etc.
I can’t accept opposites like that despite the fact they are both coming from the same sources.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2020, 07:42:52 AM
I don't see a spike up in Georgia.  At all.  I saw articles PREDICTING it. 

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/)

There has been an upward trend over the past week or so, but it is rather slight.

Where is an article calling this a spike?

I just read a CNN article on line about this, a longish article, zero mention of GA.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 11, 2020, 08:41:43 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 11, 2020, 07:42:52 AM
I don't see a spike up in Georgia.  At all.  I saw articles PREDICTING it. 

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/)

There has been an upward trend over the past week or so, but it is rather slight.

Where is an article calling this a spike?

I just read a CNN article on line about this, a longish article, zero mention of GA.


Yeah, that steadily decreasing hospitalization data is a really positive trend in Georgia.  I'm happy to see that.

In Texas ours has been increasing, largely driven by the Houston metro.

But yesterday, we saw a pretty big increase here in Austin.  Hospitalizations, which had actually been decreasing for the previous week from 97 on 6/2 to 91 on 6/9, jumped up from 91 to 104 yesterday.  There's still plenty of room in the hospitals and ICUs in the metro area, but that's the largest single-day jump we've seen since the early weeks of this thing.  Definitely worthy of keeping an eye on it, and hopefully it's just a brief spike and not a trend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 11, 2020, 09:58:49 AM
I'm also trying to understand why "spike" and "fears of a second wave" are showing up all over my news feed, when I look at the numbers and I don't see squat. 

Nationally, daily new cases are flat to slightly down. Daily deaths are continuing their downward trend after a 1-week pause about a week ago. 

I looked at the curves of the top ~10 states or so to see if maybe we were seeing a spike somewhere. Big hot spots like NY/NJ are not showing anything like a spike. California and Texas keep seeing their daily new case rates go up (but daily deaths are flat), but nothing I'd really call a spike. Texas would at least be close to calling it a spike, but given that new cases were rising anyway, I'm not sure I'd call it that. The only state that I'd say is experiencing a spike right now is Florida. Their daily case rate was about 750/day for several weeks in a row, and in just the last week it's spiked to over 1200... But then their death rate has remained flat, so there could be other explanations (increased testing?)... 

So I don't see a spike, but it's popping up in the news today... Why? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 11, 2020, 10:02:04 AM
EYEBALLS AND CLICKS!  That's why.

That we're now over 3 months into this and the MSM are still using absolute cases as a measure of trends, tells me all I need to know about their analytical capabilities.




Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2020, 10:26:21 AM
Yeah, it's dramatic, and probably can be blamed on some folks.  Balanced reporting would note the cases are increasing in some states and holding even in others and decreasing in others.  The states hit hardest earlier are doing better now, and vice versa, states that saw few early infections now are seeing them.

Area under the curve matters as well as any peak.

If five states opened "early", and three are trending up, if you only mention t hose three you are lying in my book.  But reality is more subtle and readers like decisive stuff that comports with what they want to believe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 11, 2020, 10:53:39 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 11, 2020, 10:26:21 AM
Yeah, it's dramatic, and probably can be blamed on some folks.  Balanced reporting would note the cases are increasing in some states and holding even in others and decreasing in others.  The states hit hardest earlier are doing better now, and vice versa, states that saw few early infections now are seeing them.

Area under the curve matters as well as any peak.

If five states opened "early", and three are trending up, if you only mention t hose three you are lying in my book.  But reality is more subtle and readers like decisive stuff that comports with what they want to believe.
This CNN article did just that. It talked about states opening early and cited Texas and Florida as rapidly rising cases, but didn't mention Georgia.

@longhorn320 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=16) would be happy to know, though, that the paragraph immediately following that talked about a potential spike due to the protests that could show up in the numbers in the coming weeks. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2020, 11:04:47 AM
Figure out the story you want to tell and then select the examples to support it while ignoring anything that doesn't.

This is our media.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 11, 2020, 11:13:30 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 11, 2020, 10:53:39 AM
This CNN article did just that. It talked about states opening early and cited Texas and Florida as rapidly rising cases, but didn't mention Georgia.

@longhorn320 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=16) would be happy to know, though, that the paragraph immediately following that talked about a potential spike due to the protests that could show up in the numbers in the coming weeks.
longhorn320 isnt happy at all talking about possible future effects is fine except the future is now

he will only be happy when MSM starts mentioning the protests as the cause of spikes which they will never do


nope opening up early will be listed as the main reason for spikes with little or no attention paid to the protesting

currently we have a huge portion of Seattle actually taken over by the protesters who are extorting local businesses for money

when Seattle sees a spike in the coming weeks in positive cases it will be said to be because they opened early
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 11, 2020, 11:38:17 AM
@longhorn320 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=16) I edited your post and took out the specifically political portion referring to specific political leaders.  Please keep this thread clear of that stuff.

Thank you for your support
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 11, 2020, 11:55:16 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 11, 2020, 11:13:30 AM
longhorn320 isnt happy at all talking about possible future effects is fine except the future is now

he will only be happy when MSM starts mentioning the protests as the cause of spikes which they will never do


nope opening up early will be listed as the main reason for spikes with little or no attention paid to the protesting

currently we have a huge portion of Seattle actually taken over by the protesters who are extorting local businesses for money

when Seattle sees a spike in the coming weeks in positive cases it will be said to be because they opened early
Lol. Love you longhorn- this post immediately think of Bob Dole who always spoke in the 3rd party.  “ Bob Dole is for lower taxes”.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 11, 2020, 11:56:00 AM
Quote from: utee94 on June 11, 2020, 11:38:17 AM
@longhorn320 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=16) I edited your post and took out the specifically political portion referring to specific political leaders.  Please keep this thread clear of that stuff.

Thank you for your support
its impossible to have a discussion about MSM not mentioning the protests as a current cause without mentioning motive

you can censor me all you want but I do not support
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 11, 2020, 11:57:30 AM
F MSM
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on June 11, 2020, 12:07:46 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 11, 2020, 11:56:00 AM
its impossible to have a discussion about MSM not mentioning the protests as a current cause without mentioning motive

you can censor me all you want but I do not support
One could say just the bolded part, and it would be super accurate. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 11, 2020, 12:09:58 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on June 11, 2020, 12:07:46 PM
One could say just the bolded part, and it would be super accurate.
not for me I have a pretty good idea just how they stand and why they do what they do
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on June 11, 2020, 12:17:30 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 11, 2020, 12:09:58 PM
not for me I have a pretty good idea just how they stand and why they do what they do
Exactly, it's not a discussion. The MSM is an abstraction to complain about. I suppose the discussion can be concurrent complaints. But it's usually not much of substance. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 11, 2020, 12:25:49 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on June 11, 2020, 12:17:30 PM
Exactly, it's not a discussion. The MSM is an abstraction to complain about. I suppose the discussion can be concurrent complaints. But it's usually not much of substance.
ok well we just disagree I can live with that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 11, 2020, 12:30:21 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 11, 2020, 08:41:43 AM
Yeah, that steadily decreasing hospitalization data is a really positive trend in Georgia.  I'm happy to see that.

In Texas ours has been increasing, largely driven by the Houston metro.

But yesterday, we saw a pretty big increase here in Austin.  Hospitalizations, which had actually been decreasing for the previous week from 97 on 6/2 to 91 on 6/9, jumped up from 91 to 104 yesterday.  There's still plenty of room in the hospitals and ICUs in the metro area, but that's the largest single-day jump we've seen since the early weeks of this thing.  Definitely worthy of keeping an eye on it, and hopefully it's just a brief spike and not a trend.

the current hospitalizations count for Houston and Dallas areas are aprox 690 each 

both areas have had increases over the last 10 weeks

so its not just Houston but Dallas as well
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 11, 2020, 01:15:06 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 11, 2020, 11:56:00 AM
its impossible to have a discussion about MSM not mentioning the protests as a current cause without mentioning motive

you can censor me all you want but I do not support
Making deliberate, inflammatory posts, isn't going to help anything and it sure as shit isn't going to change anyone's mind.

I'll say the same thing to you that I say to the people whose views are opposite yours-- don't do it.  I'll continue to delete overtly political posts.  If you want to inflame others and argue politics, there are plenty of other places to do that, including an entire forum at the bottom of this site's front page.  Do it there.  Or, as long as badgerfan allows it, do it on the 2020 shitshow thread.

This one is for respectful and intelligent exchange of ideas on the Coronas.  And maybe some beer talk, as well.  badgerfan doesn't have any desire to read a flame war, and neither do I.

Thank you for your support.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 11, 2020, 01:22:40 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 11, 2020, 12:30:21 PM
the current hospitalizations count for Houston and Dallas areas are aprox 690 each

both areas have had increases over the last 10 weeks

so its not just Houston but Dallas as well

Houston was increasing over a week before Dallas, in the most recent trends.  But Dallas had an uptick a couple of days ago, and Austin did yesterday.  No idea whether or not those are outliers, or the beginning of a trend.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 11, 2020, 01:27:05 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 11, 2020, 01:15:06 PM
Making deliberate, inflammatory posts, isn't going to help anything and it sure as shit isn't going to change anyone's mind.

I'll say the same thing to you that I say to the people whose views are opposite yours-- don't do it.  I'll continue to delete overtly political posts.  If you want to inflame others and argue politics, there are plenty of other places to do that, including an entire forum at the bottom of this site's front page.  Do it there.  Or, as long as badgerfan allows it, do it on the 2020 shitshow thread.

This one is for respectful and intelligent exchange of ideas on the Coronas.  And maybe some beer talk, as well.  badgerfan doesn't have any desire to read a flame war, and neither do I.

Thank you for your support.
I think we should defund ya
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 11, 2020, 01:39:16 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 11, 2020, 01:27:05 PM
I think we should defund ya
And that's fair.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 11, 2020, 01:46:45 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 11, 2020, 01:39:16 PM
And that's fair.
yep but its not about money

we only want to rebuild you

so you can feel our pain
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 11, 2020, 08:24:15 PM
Total hospitalizations in Texas declined today from 2153 to 2008

hope this keeps going down
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 11, 2020, 09:55:48 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/YEDV7fA.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/1AUcjc4.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 12, 2020, 08:11:46 AM
Georgia is trending up, it's not a spike, but it is a clear trend.  One could blame the protests.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 12, 2020, 08:40:19 AM
folks will blame what fits their agenda
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 12, 2020, 09:28:41 AM
Folks nearly always do that of course, confirmation bias.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 12, 2020, 10:29:27 AM
Vaccine news:

https://techcrunch.com/2020/06/11/moderna-set-to-start-final-stage-trial-of-its-coronavirus-vaccine-by-july/ (https://techcrunch.com/2020/06/11/moderna-set-to-start-final-stage-trial-of-its-coronavirus-vaccine-by-july/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on June 12, 2020, 10:57:49 AM
I may have missed the first 375 pages but does anyone on here personally KNOW anybody that has had the corona virus?  Does anyone on here know anyone that has been either hospitalized or died?  I don't know anyone with it or had it.  

We've had 13 deaths in our county directly south of Houston (Brazoria Co) and they're all over 60 years of age with most being 70's, 80's, and one 90.  They won't give the exact age, only a range.  

No kids at my sons school died from it but one kid died by drowning at the beach.  If he was in school he would still be alive, so therefore I can say that the quarantine has killed more kids here than the corona.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on June 12, 2020, 11:21:31 AM
Quote from: Gigem on June 12, 2020, 10:57:49 AM
I may have missed the first 375 pages but does anyone on here personally KNOW anybody that has had the corona virus?  Does anyone on here know anyone that has been either hospitalized or died?  I don't know anyone with it or had it. 

We've had 13 deaths in our county directly south of Houston (Brazoria Co) and they're all over 60 years of age with most being 70's, 80's, and one 90.  They won't give the exact age, only a range. 

No kids at my sons school died from it but one kid died by drowning at the beach.  If he was in school he would still be alive, so therefore I can say that the quarantine has killed more kids here than the corona. 
I had a friend who got it in Oklahoma, he has had a few heart attacks, so he was hospitalized and then given the poison hydroxychloroquine and somehow he survived with no side effects and was release from the hospital after a few days and is doing fine now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 12, 2020, 11:26:11 AM
my sister in law, her husband and her son had it

all have recovered no hospitalization
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 12, 2020, 11:41:04 AM
My kid in Texas had it, recovered now, an early case, wasn't fun.  I was somewhat close to driving out there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 12, 2020, 01:32:45 PM
My haircutter had it and was asymptomatic.  They contact-traced to me, since I had direct exposure to her (getting my hair cut) shortly after she was exposed.

That's the only person I know, that has had a confirmed positive.

I received both the active-infection test (swab through the nose and into your brain) and the blood-draw antibody test.  Both came up negative.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on June 12, 2020, 01:55:31 PM
Quote from: Gigem on June 12, 2020, 10:57:49 AM
I may have missed the first 375 pages but does anyone on here personally KNOW anybody that has had the corona virus?  Does anyone on here know anyone that has been either hospitalized or died?  I don't know anyone with it or had it. 

We've had 13 deaths in our county directly south of Houston (Brazoria Co) and they're all over 60 years of age with most being 70's, 80's, and one 90.  They won't give the exact age, only a range. 

No kids at my sons school died from it but one kid died by drowning at the beach.  If he was in school he would still be alive, so therefore I can say that the quarantine has killed more kids here than the corona. 
My sister and brother in law both got it. My sister was sick for a few days, flu like symptoms. My brother in law had a sore throat for a few hours. They are both in their mid 50's.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 12, 2020, 02:10:25 PM
Survivors of COVID-19 are donating their blood plasma in droves in hopes it helps other patients recover from the coronavirus. And while the jury’s still out, now scientists are testing if the donations might also prevent infection in the first place.

Thousands of coronavirus patients in hospitals around the world have been treated with so-called convalescent plasma — including more than 20,000 in the U.S. — with little solid evidence so far that it makes a difference. One recent study from China was unclear while another from New York offered a hint of benefit.


https://apnews.com/40a91036e4f415132a6b273c300ff07b (https://apnews.com/40a91036e4f415132a6b273c300ff07b)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 12, 2020, 05:17:07 PM
https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/status/1271551432391622657?s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 12, 2020, 05:29:33 PM
bummer Dude
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 12, 2020, 06:34:04 PM
https://twitter.com/CharlesRobinson/status/1271554664924930048?s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2020, 09:42:19 AM
Florida is ticking up for sure, on cases. So are the number of tests. Deaths are way down, and keep trending down.

Positive test rate is at 5.3 now, up from 4.8 a couple of weeks ago.

I'm in Illinois now. I guess it's time to start following that again, and Wisconsin. 

Wisconsin is fully open and has been since the state Supreme Court declared the lockdown unconstitutional (because it is). No major trends, except the positive tests continue to trend down.

44 percent of Wisconsin's cases are between the ages of 10 and 39. Gee, I wonder why.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 13, 2020, 10:26:21 AM
We went back to the wine bar yesterday. Masks were damn near nonexistent. 

Our mask requirement was rescinded by the new county Chief Health Officer. Of course, the only reason there is a new CHO is that the previous one who implemented the requirement resigned after getting protesters outside her house--and at least one death threat. 

All this as daily case rates in Orange County continue to rise, and hospitalizations continue to rise. So this rescinding of the mask requirement is no victory lap.

I don't blame reopening for the cases going up, here in OC... I believe that with proper precautions, reopening is appropriate and can be done safely. I blame inconsiderate jerks--county's full of 'em. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 13, 2020, 10:41:25 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2020, 09:42:19 AM
Florida is ticking up for sure, on cases. So are the number of tests. Deaths are way down, and keep trending down.

Positive test rate is at 5.3 now, up from 4.8 a couple of weeks ago.

I'm in Illinois now. I guess it's time to start following that again, and Wisconsin.

Wisconsin is fully open and has been since the state Supreme Court declared the lockdown unconstitutional (because it is). No major trends, except the positive tests continue to trend down.

44 percent of Wisconsin's cases are between the ages of 10 and 39. Gee, I wonder why.
Hospitalizations down in Florida
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2020, 10:50:19 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 13, 2020, 10:41:25 AM
Hospitalizations down in Florida
I didn't click on that page. Thanks.

With 22K beds, FL should be just fine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 13, 2020, 11:17:20 AM
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/13/world/asia/beijing-market-coronavirus.html

New outbreak in Beijing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 13, 2020, 11:20:09 AM
I don't see how this can "go away" short of an intensely restricted island or a useful widely used vaccine, or herd immunity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2020, 11:34:27 AM
Just scheduled the serology test.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 13, 2020, 05:17:02 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 13, 2020, 11:20:09 AM
I don't see how this can "go away" short of an intensely restricted island or a useful widely used vaccine, or herd immunity.

Agreed, it's not going away.  And since we've never developed an effective vaccine for any other coronavirus in the history of our planet, I'm inclined to believe we won't develop one for this thing, either.  I'm certainly hopeful that we will, and would be very happily surprised, but we can't make ANY plan or policy that begins with "once we have a vaccine."  That's hopecasting, not forecasting.

We're going to have to learn to live with this thing among us.  It's here to stay, and all public and health policy decisions and plans need to begin with that as the core idea.

Then we have to figure out what to do next.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 13, 2020, 05:41:49 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 13, 2020, 05:17:02 PM
Agreed, it's not going away.  And since we've never developed an effective vaccine for any other coronavirus in the history of our planet, I'm inclined to believe we won't develop one for this thing, either.  I'm certainly hopeful that we will, and would be very happily surprised, but we can't make ANY plan or policy that begins with "once we have a vaccine."  That's hopecasting, not forecasting.

We're going to have to learn to live with this thing among us.  It's here to stay, and all public and health policy decisions and plans need to begin with that as the core idea.

Then we have to figure out what to do next.
You never know that fat lady might be ready to sing

I posted this yesterday but got no comments on it so Im gonna post it again

https://techcrunch.com/2020/06/11/moderna-set-to-start-final-stage-trial-of-its-coronavirus-vaccine-by-july/ (https://techcrunch.com/2020/06/11/moderna-set-to-start-final-stage-trial-of-its-coronavirus-vaccine-by-july/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 13, 2020, 05:44:41 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 13, 2020, 05:41:49 PM
You never know that fat lady might be ready to sing

I posted this yesterday but got no comments on it so Im gonna post it again

https://techcrunch.com/2020/06/11/moderna-set-to-start-final-stage-trial-of-its-coronavirus-vaccine-by-july/ (https://techcrunch.com/2020/06/11/moderna-set-to-start-final-stage-trial-of-its-coronavirus-vaccine-by-july/)

I saw it.  Like I said, I don't expect ever to have an effective vaccine.  It would be a happy surprise if we did.

But no public policy decisions can be made on the hope that an effective vaccine will be available in 6 months, 12 months, 18 months, or 18 years. That's not planning, that's dreaming.  Realistic policies based on realistic expectations are where we start-- right now.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 13, 2020, 05:48:59 PM
I disagree with the concept that we can't develop an effective vaccine, and fairly quickly.  Vaccine developed for MERS and SARS were fairly advanced when it became obvious one was just not needed.  There is evidence people are developing antibodies.  We don't know how long they will last, or of course whether the virus may mutate.

I'm reasonably optimistic about a vaccine, perhaps by first of the year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 13, 2020, 06:05:24 PM
theres even some talk about rushing the unproven vaccine into production so if this final trial works out they would be able to distribute it right away

that would mean possibly having a vaccine by November

course if the final trial is negative then they will have spent a shit load of money for nothing

Id be willing to bet the Government might underwrite such a venture
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 13, 2020, 06:23:49 PM
I love the optimism, but you can't rush this type of thing.  Vaccines are ongoing and are already developed as quickly as possible.

it's not a case of scientists lounging around, dragging their feet most of the time, BUT NOW they're buckling down and trying harder.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 13, 2020, 10:10:33 PM
There is some risk obviously that a vaccine is rushed beyond prudence.  None of us can judge whether that is the case.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 15, 2020, 02:21:28 AM
Someone I knew very well just died of Covid.  She was around my age, but not very healthy. A receptionist at the school I taught at on the Rez.  She was a great lady. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 15, 2020, 07:03:29 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 15, 2020, 02:21:28 AM
Someone I knew very well just died of Covid.  She was around my age, but not very healthy. A receptionist at the school I taught at on the Rez.  She was a great lady. 
That stinks OFA.  Sorry man.😔
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 15, 2020, 07:58:03 AM
Very sorry to hear that OAM, condolences.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 15, 2020, 08:16:10 AM
Reported cases are up, pretty clearly, aside from states that were hit hardest earliest.  Unfortunately, I think we'll have more premature deaths coming, some among younger folks.  If anyone wants to share more information about someone who passed, it's a good place to do so.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 15, 2020, 12:23:21 PM
I'm just waiting for the Sun City/El Mirage area to explode - it's in NW Phoenix and basically a retirement community full of retirement communities. 

The zip codes adjacent to mine are still really high, in numbers of cases.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 15, 2020, 12:26:43 PM
Were I retired (oh, wait), I would be VERY careful about personal contacts of any kind.

I just jogged three miles so I'm feeling invulnerable, bring it on!  Well, no, I'll pass.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 15, 2020, 12:40:06 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 15, 2020, 12:26:43 PM
Were I retired (oh, wait), I would be VERY careful about personal contacts of any kind.

I just jogged three miles so I'm feeling invulnerable, bring it on!  Well, no, I'll pass.
My folks have done a good job staying distanced so far.  My dad turns 80 this year, my mom is getting close, they've both had various health issues over the years.

But I think they're also reaching a point where they don't want to stay isolated and alone much longer.  We visit regularly and do socially-distanced get-togethers outside, and they enjoy that, but they also know that they're likely nearing the end of their days, and they don't want to spend any large percentage of their remaining years, isolated.

My in-laws who are 83 and 80, are even further beyond that, and are driving to a casino in Louisiana, as we speak.

I hope that none of them end up catching it and suffering, but I also respect their rights to make their own decisions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on June 15, 2020, 12:40:44 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 15, 2020, 02:21:28 AM
Someone I knew very well just died of Covid.  She was around my age, but not very healthy. A receptionist at the school I taught at on the Rez.  She was a great lady. 
Sorry to hear this.

COVID-19 got into one of the nursing homes in our rural county last week. Ten reported cases divided equally between staff and residents.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 15, 2020, 12:53:59 PM
I presume the elderly are no more likely to contract the disease, just more likely to suffer more serious consequences.

Georgia has moved from about 600 new cases per day to over 800 now, but hospitalizations have only edged higher, 804 to 827. 

That might be expected if the new cases are mostly younger people, and the protesters were nearly all younger folks.  The timing is about right.

We were having brunch Sunday at the place we like dining outside when a protest passed by, very well controlled and organized, probably 250 people, staying in two lanes of the four lane main drag here, so they only blocked southbound traffic.  Roughly 60% were white.  They were all young that I noticed.

A police car was in front and two were in back, mostly for traffic control, they hit the lights at intersections.  That was Peachtree Street.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 15, 2020, 01:26:07 PM
Nationally, deaths are still edging down. 

As mentioned, there are weekly patterns that are consistent. Yesterday was down about 10% from the previous Sunday. Since early April, every Sunday has been sequentially down except one week. Monday is also typically low, so if today is down sequentially from last Monday, we're continuing the trend. 

Cases continue to rise, but even in states with sharp case increases (CA/TX/FL), deaths are flat so far. So I don't worry about the case numbers as much as the hospitalization/death numbers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on June 15, 2020, 06:16:56 PM
All the older people I know don't have a worry in the world about COVID 19.  Most of them just accept that if they get it, they get it, and if they die, so be it.  Most of them have already survived more than one health scare or are still dealing with a few.  Some don't expect to live much longer anyways.  I'm talking about people well into their 70's.  My dad, mom, aunts, uncles, etc.  It really doesn't matter to them.  

I'm of the opinion that we're all going to get it eventually, sooner or later.  You can't keep the world on lockdown forever.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 15, 2020, 06:38:28 PM
Quote from: Gigem on June 15, 2020, 06:16:56 PM
All the older people I know don't have a worry in the world about COVID 19.  Most of them just accept that if they get it, they get it, and if they die, so be it.  Most of them have already survived more than one health scare or are still dealing with a few.  Some don't expect to live much longer anyways.  I'm talking about people well into their 70's.  My dad, mom, aunts, uncles, etc.  It really doesn't matter to them. 

I'm of the opinion that we're all going to get it eventually, sooner or later.  You can't keep the world on lockdown forever. 
I think we need to revisit your comments if we dont see a vaccine late this year
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 15, 2020, 08:13:39 PM
We may be seeing a big uptick in Tulsa in about three weeks.  The POTUS is holding a rally here on the 20th.  It was originally going to be on the 19th--Juneteenth--but there was pushback on that, so he changed it.

But apparently they're going to cram about a million people into an arena with 19,000 seats--everyone will sign a waiver of liability--so it should be very interesting to see if anything starts happening a couple of weeks later.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 15, 2020, 08:14:09 PM

(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2912%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Fe10241b8-7b53-4647-977c-2b80b6d85a72_1600x529.png&t=1592247966&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1c96-ef0044013e00&sig=5A1B405ApRQovpQLvgZt4g--~C) (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUkuu3CAQPM2ws2V-Bi-8eIqUa1gN9DDo2eAAzmRy-mB7FQlBqT9VrS4sVPQpf-Y9lUqOgnkJbhZs4ooq0pCjWmoSyvLMiBuEda75QLIfZg0WakjxbGBS0om8ZimfIDifQIMbLTqrKGPAx2kUBpE5csoscLiA0eKc4vq5iMk6v2rdy4N_PdjPdqyLfTlMqWC_e5u2FgobeGzvE6t9nSXLGrZQH-zHszHW1MCvG_Avn5I7E-uy5-QzlhJ-Y4uXiri33luMyVNOnoLtMof9xpbPHQ7SGKtFZwB4J7jCbpJUd-AMZwaVmrToC-9hg78pwrvcEzaOey0XvMYtF0Q6MEGN7pSRjW8UqpuUsh0zejCj0xIUW-g4DH8km_o9ehJmNrBhGKmklGsuetq_TSh72Ny2P8SwefbfekieM0TXmxy8L62gGOvXZGDtI9bTraVVbUcM9bNgBLOiu42st_OXL_Wz4xzxXVasFfMdbO5KKfUoSRN0qX2BOG8pxxC9axNBM-MfnsW_-A)
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2912%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Ff7f5b028-08a6-46e2-8070-a5e1e715baaf_1600x987.png&t=1592247966&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1c96-ef0044013e00&sig=SqGPwCgTtOc7zGPpQeRGag--~C) (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUsmu3CAQ_JrhZovFGObgw1Ok_IbF0mbQY3EAZzL5-mD7FAlBqZeqVhdGNXC5fJY914aOCmX1dpnokwkiUEeWSC6Rr-tWAKLyYWnlALQfOnijms_pbKCckyd6LYaZWROwgkuqNVN6IrMgTMxmnjasCTplVnVYD8nAklP4XMQoLK_W9vpgXw_6sx9j01gPXZsy36PJsYd8VA76u0Ezr7NkDT769qA_ts7Ycge_bsC-XM72TIR1L9kVqNX_hh6vDWDvvbcY5accPwX7pQ_zDT1fBsBcayOnQSvFhokJGJ6cyEFZzagGIZ5yGisbVVR_c1Lvek_YOe61XPAat15wExvXmMoBSzUP0wx0kFjgQXEgIAjvMttKZoz_PKUY9-SQXyimGM-EE8Ikm0YyvrWvu4827o8JR0f_Ww8qS1HJjrp452ovqNq4kLUKY4J2urX2qngk3z4rJKUD2NvIdjt_-dI-OywJ3jVAa1DuYHeXcy5njrqgzf0LpCXmknxytk-kuhn_AGoSwEc)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 15, 2020, 09:47:25 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 15, 2020, 08:13:39 PM
We may be seeing a big uptick in Tulsa in about three weeks.  The POTUS is holding a rally here on the 20th.  It was originally going to be on the 19th--Juneteenth--but there was pushback on that, so he changed it.

But apparently they're going to cram about a million people into an arena with 19,000 seats--everyone will sign a waiver of liability--so it should be very interesting to see if anything starts happening a couple of weeks later.
you do understand that there wont be 1,000,00 people at Trumps rally dont you

or were you just spreading fake news (relax it was a joke)

amazing how the virus knows the difference between protesting which is good and a rally which is bad

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 15, 2020, 09:48:39 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 15, 2020, 09:47:25 PM
you do understand that there wont be 1,000,00 people at Trumps rally dont you

or were you just spreading fake news (relax it was a joke)

amazing how the virus knows the difference between protesting which is good and a rally which is bad


Amen 😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 15, 2020, 10:07:28 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 15, 2020, 09:47:25 PM
you do understand that there wont be 1,000,00 people at Trumps rally dont you

or were you just spreading fake news (relax it was a joke)

amazing how the virus knows the difference between protesting which is good and a rally which is bad
There have been people camped out since Friday.  Including a lot from out of state.  Including at least one guy from Massachusetts who has rented a motel room so that he can shower while someone watches his place in line.
The virus doesn't know the difference.  But that double standard cuts both ways.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 15, 2020, 10:09:11 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 15, 2020, 10:07:28 PM
one guy from Massachusetts who has rented a motel room so that he can shower while someone watches his place in line.
I'm not sure this is legal
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 15, 2020, 10:10:37 PM
Or smart.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 16, 2020, 07:38:21 AM
The apparent adoration of ANY politician is a puzzlement to me.  

I do have some admiration for Churchill, despite his various faults.

There is a nice film on W. T. Sherman on Amazon or NF, I don't know which, his life and times.  He was of course the very first president of what became LSU.

He also was a banker on several occasions.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 16, 2020, 07:51:42 AM
I don't know-- I think there are times when adoration of a president or political figure is appropriate.  I believe that freed slaves probably had some justifiable adoration for Abraham Lincoln.  

But I can't say that I identify any US president or political figure of the past 100+ years as such.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 16, 2020, 08:08:24 AM
I dunno,maybe Teddy,FDR or IKE wouldn't mind tossing back a few on the White House Patio with them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 16, 2020, 08:09:16 AM
some thought quite a bit of JFK

but apparently some didn't
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 16, 2020, 08:19:00 AM
Ya wonder if it was an inside job or a mob hit.He certainly opposed some powerful people
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 16, 2020, 08:28:46 AM
dat's what some folks liked about him

dat's what some folks like about the current Pres
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 16, 2020, 08:52:20 AM
Some good news here.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-steroid-idUSKBN23N1VP (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-steroid-idUSKBN23N1VP)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 16, 2020, 08:53:15 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 16, 2020, 08:08:24 AM
I dunno,maybe Teddy,FDR or IKE wouldn't mind tossing back a few on the White House Patio with them
There are Presidents in the past I admire and would love to chat with, but I don't adore any of them the way some today appear to adore recent Presidents.

There are quite a few I wouldn't care even to chat with though.

Teddy was interesting of course.  I'd chat with Ike more about the war than his Presidency.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 16, 2020, 08:54:09 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 16, 2020, 08:52:20 AM
Some good news here.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-steroid-idUSKBN23N1VP (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-steroid-idUSKBN23N1VP)

That makes sense as it should treat the cytokine explosion situation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 16, 2020, 10:04:43 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 16, 2020, 08:52:20 AM
Some good news here.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-steroid-idUSKBN23N1VP (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-steroid-idUSKBN23N1VP)

That is good news
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 16, 2020, 10:21:20 AM
We need more good news. A lot more good news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 16, 2020, 10:28:49 AM
New virus cases here appear to have leveled at about 900 per day, up from about 600 two weeks ago.  If it is a real level, that is tolerable I think.  Hospitalizations are up only slightly.

Traffic has picked back up.  Restaurants are open.  Hotels are reopening now.  My running is improving a lot.  We haven't been nuked yet.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 16, 2020, 10:40:30 AM
I meant in the context of this virus. More good news please. Keep it coming.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 16, 2020, 11:19:04 AM
According to a joint Monday statement, MercyOne Siouxland Medical Center and UnityPoint Health – St. Luke’s are providing care for a combined 54 COVID-19 patients. That number is trending downward from late May, when there were routinely 80 to 90 patients in the two city hospitals.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 16, 2020, 12:08:53 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 16, 2020, 08:19:00 AM
Ya wonder if it was an inside job or a mob hit.He certainly opposed some powerful people
From coronavirus to JFK conspiracy theories.
If we hadn't already, we are now officially jumping the shark.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 16, 2020, 12:16:17 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 16, 2020, 12:08:53 PM
From coronavirus to JFK conspiracy theories.
If we hadn't already, we are now officially jumping the shark.
Did you know that a great white shark can swim up to 35 mph and travel 50 miles a day
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 16, 2020, 12:19:37 PM
I did not know that.  But I know this:

(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_1766%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Fed38672c-121d-4883-ac58-cca21e981c8e_883x291.png&t=1592318817&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1c15-fc0001018200&sig=pj3D3t61D7qfWW4mQMMnLw--~C) (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUkmO5CAQfE1xs8ViynDgUGppvmGxpCnUGNyAu7vm9YPLp5EQhCKXSGVgdQOfy0vtuTZ0VChLcGqiks1kRh05IrhAoS5rAdh0iKqVA9B-mBisbiGns4ByTiR6KmtnLKfVcUFXK9ZVUEsFlxjruxCYreiUWfThAiQLCr6hvHICFNWztb3e2ONG__RjXRrrYWrT9nO0eetU2LSH_q7Q7PNMWWLYQrvRj7U3bLmDrwuwh8_ZnYG47CX7ArWGb-h8bQB7r73EKD_l-CnYL3PYT-jxMgDmxlgxDUZrNkxshkFyIgbtDKMG5lmKaaxs1Jv-m5P-qdeEvce1lTd8j1vfEBwT95nagVDihkkINmjLxWCtpgSkIFbA0tlfKsm4J4-CophifCd3QghlciSjNNGZ_dc3LG4T3jz9bz2oqKKTG00J3teeUI31MRsdxwTtNGvpWduRQnstkLSJ4C4f22X825b22kEl-KkRWoNykd1czgXGDHVBl_sPSGrLJYXkXai77mb8A1Lfv2s)
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2408%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Fed857383-5afd-405c-b70f-8206984ce75b_1204x750.png&t=1592318817&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1c15-fc0001018200&sig=HCqUIyAsL4Kf07IY34fPKw--~C) (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUkmO5CAQfE1xs8ViCnzgUGppvmGxpCnUGNyAu7vm9YPLp5EQhHKJSGVgdQOfy0vtuTZ0VChLcGqiMxNEoI4ckVyiUJe1AGw6RNXKAWg_TAxWt5DT2UA5JzN6qokBNVzLmeK7MKtjnM9ET9IJ4oxhHJ0yiz5cgGRBwTeUV06Aonq2ttcbe9zon36sS2M9TG3afo42bz0UNu2hvys0-zxLlhi20G70Y-2ELXfwdQH28Dm7MxGXvWRfoNbwDT1eG8Deey8xyk85fgr2yxz2E3q-DIC5MVZOg9GaDRMTMMycyEE7w6gBIWY5jZWNetN_c9I_9Zqwc1xbecP3uPUNwUkumGQD16sbJsztYAReB9mX1KksCG4WQvH0Kzge9-RRUBRTjO_kTgihbB7JOJvozP7rG5a3CW-e_rcfVFTRyY2mBO9rL6jG-piNjmOCdrq19KrtSKG9FkjaRHCXke1y_u1Le-2gEvzUCK1BuYLdXc4lxgx1QZf7F0hqyyWF5F2ou-5u_AOkxr9W)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 16, 2020, 12:32:59 PM
Deaths continue to trend down

thats good news
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on June 16, 2020, 12:47:34 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 16, 2020, 07:38:21 AM
The apparent adoration of ANY politician is a puzzlement to me. 

I do have some admiration for Churchill, despite his various faults.

There is a nice film on W. T. Sherman on Amazon or NF, I don't know which, his life and times.  He was of course the very first president of what became LSU.

He also was a banker on several occasions. 
Just read a pretty balance book citing sources from both side on Sherman's march (Sherman's March by Burke Davis) to the sea. It was quite interesting and I actually learned a few things I hadn't know. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on June 16, 2020, 12:54:10 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 16, 2020, 08:19:00 AM
Ya wonder if it was an inside job or a mob hit.He certainly opposed some powerful people
I think it was Lee Oswald, but the reason so much conspiracy exists around it is because most people believe that someone so insignificant as LHO can set their place in history by extinguishing someone as significant as JFK.  

Remember, some nutt almost extinguished Reagan not even 20 years later.  A little more to the left or right and we would all remember the dudes name.  Now I can't even remember the dudes name except that he had the hots for Jodie Foster ( who has now come out as gay) and he wanted to impress her by killing Reagan.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 16, 2020, 01:49:29 PM
There is pretty compelling evidence it was Oswald.  And knowing a bit about LHO it's hard to think he would have been part of any conspiracy unless he was a total patsy.  He had been trained to shoot of course.  He apparently missed his first shot, which was easiest.

There is a pretty neat fictional book written by a favorite author of mine about how it was "really" done, but the author goes to pains to mention it's fictional.

(https://i.imgur.com/Eylte7n.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 16, 2020, 02:37:59 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/coronavirus-live-updates.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/coronavirus-live-updates.html)

The states hit the hardest at first are doing relatively better, and vice versa.

Area under the curve ....???
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 16, 2020, 05:52:51 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 16, 2020, 02:37:59 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/coronavirus-live-updates.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/coronavirus-live-updates.html)

The states hit the hardest at first are doing relatively better, and vice versa.

Area under the curve ....???
Yup, pretty much.  And when those early-problem states start opening up, they'll see increases again.  This virus isn't going away.

Focus #1 is making sure the hospitals don't get overrun.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 16, 2020, 07:17:40 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 16, 2020, 01:49:29 PM
There is pretty compelling evidence it was Oswald.  And knowing a bit about LHO it's hard to think he would have been part of any conspiracy unless he was a total patsy.  He had been trained to shoot of course.  He apparently missed his first shot, which was easiest.

There is a pretty neat fictional book written by a favorite author of mine about how it was "really" done, but the author goes to pains to mention it's fictional.

(https://i.imgur.com/Eylte7n.png)
You probably know that they discovered what happened to the "third" (actually the first) bullet.
When Dallas was repainting street light fixtures 30-40 years later, they found a bullet scar on the top of one that was right in line between Oswald's perch and JFK's limo at the time of the first gunfire sound.  And downrange they found an impact scar in the concrete curb where the bullet would have hit.
I don't think that the Warren Commission did history's finest murder investigation, but I think it is very clear that Oswald was the lone gunman and that he was not part of any conspiracy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 16, 2020, 08:39:05 PM
well, that's no fun
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 16, 2020, 08:58:11 PM
Yep.  Conspiracy theories are always more fun.  That's why there are so many of them!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 16, 2020, 11:53:23 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 16, 2020, 02:37:59 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/coronavirus-live-updates.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/coronavirus-live-updates.html)

The states hit the hardest at first are doing relatively better, and vice versa.

Area under the curve ....???
Who could have predicted such a thing!?!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 17, 2020, 04:20:29 AM
OMG FINALLY - there's a CopperFit mask!  Machine washable, with the properties of copper!  Yes!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 17, 2020, 07:16:19 AM
Ugh, the copper thing is ludicrous.

GA had two days of somewhat lower reported new cases.  Hospitalization is slightly up still, not very much.  Restrictions are still being loosened.  I have a dentist's appt this morning, routine cleaning.  The wife went last week for hers, same office.

Mask wearing at Kroger etc. is way down now, I think folks never understood the point of a mask.  Protest news is quiet, I'd guess there are protests downtown each day in the park.  The paper is not mentioning them.  We saw one very orderly protest march of about 250 people, most of whom were white, which I take as a good sign.

It was 57°F this morning, but the weekend promises to give us our first 90°F day, which is almost a month later than typical.

Our HOA had a zoom kind of meeting last night, I didn't partake.  The board seems to be reasonable folks.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 17, 2020, 10:09:24 AM
Following weekly trends, we had the usual spike in daily deaths on Tuesday following the low weekend, but the number was lower than previous Tuesdays, so our 7-day moving average nationally continues to trend down.

To story in the news is going to be the big spike in cases yesterday, but unless we start to see hospitalizations and deaths trending back up, the cases number is probably not as important as people will make it out to be. 

And even the uptick in cases only brought our 7-day moving average to where it was 10-14 days ago, with only a SLIGHT trough in between, so I wouldn't call it an alarming change unless the rest of the week shows a significant upward trend. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 17, 2020, 11:20:39 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 17, 2020, 10:09:24 AM
Following weekly trends, we had the usual spike in daily deaths on Tuesday following the low weekend, but the number was lower than previous Tuesdays, so our 7-day moving average nationally continues to trend down.

To story in the news is going to be the big spike in cases yesterday, but unless we start to see hospitalizations and deaths trending back up, the cases number is probably not as important as people will make it out to be.

And even the uptick in cases only brought our 7-day moving average to where it was 10-14 days ago, with only a SLIGHT trough in between, so I wouldn't call it an alarming change unless the rest of the week shows a significant upward trend.
Texas numbers are very concerning. Over 4,000 yesterday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 17, 2020, 11:21:56 AM
As noted, the key might well be hospitalizations rather than just case counts.  The idea was to prevent hospitals from being over whelmed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 17, 2020, 11:28:05 AM
Here's Orange County. Orange is hospitalizations, blue is ICU beds.

(https://i.imgur.com/5J7toKe.png)

And as we continue to open, more and more, I expect it to only increase. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 17, 2020, 11:32:26 AM
Georgia is up some, but not nearly that much, and was first to reopen.  I don't think it is JUST reopening, there are other factors at play.

I was at the dentist this morning, they have really changed their procedures, but I think their workers are at risk of exposure.  I had droplets flying all over the place during my cleaning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 17, 2020, 11:33:57 AM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 17, 2020, 11:20:39 AM
Texas numbers are very concerning. Over 4,000 yesterday.
Yep I agree
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 17, 2020, 11:42:33 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 17, 2020, 11:33:57 AM
Yep I agree
Lots of worrying numbers out there.  Arizona is setting off alarm bells, too.

All of this while the kids are home from school. 

Meanwhile, other places that have opened up are doing far better.  Do you have any insight as to why Texas and AZ seem to on the rise?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 17, 2020, 11:57:36 AM
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/17/us/group-tests-positive-florida-bar/index.html (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/17/us/group-tests-positive-florida-bar/index.html)

16 cases because young people went to a bar together for a celebration, without masks, without distancing, and all ended up positive. 

I'm shocked. SHOCKED I tell you. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 17, 2020, 11:58:31 AM
I saw Minnesota was jumping also.  At times, articles focus on red states ONLY or blue states ONLY to try and make some political point, instead of discussing the full picture, which is more confusing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 17, 2020, 12:10:43 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 17, 2020, 11:58:31 AM
I saw Minnesota was jumping also.  At times, articles focus on red states ONLY or blue states ONLY to try and make some political point, instead of discussing the full picture, which is more confusing.
I don't read any articles, I only look at the numbers. 

TX and AZ are the most concerning.

tier2:

CA, FL, NC

on the radar:
VA, IL, AL, TN, SC, LA

Mix of red and blue states, as you can see.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 17, 2020, 12:16:23 PM
One also could claim the protests are the cause of these upticks.  I don't, because the data aren't there, but it is one possibility.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 17, 2020, 12:20:41 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/2OqeiUm.png)

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/coronavirus-live-updates.html?fbclid=IwAR3sYdfL2X_fwqG5p8Zqm5FNvALItdeg_B2V30EFf7Lrltmn0mpdci4XlvU (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/coronavirus-live-updates.html?fbclid=IwAR3sYdfL2X_fwqG5p8Zqm5FNvALItdeg_B2V30EFf7Lrltmn0mpdci4XlvU)

You can see the NY area and LA/MI hard hit earlier are doing comparatively better now.  This charts cases since reopening as a percentage of all cases.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 17, 2020, 12:21:18 PM
if only a state opening up was the only factor                               protests

not sure why Minn Tex Ca are having an increase in cases             protests

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 17, 2020, 12:22:34 PM
Austin Metro cases trending up in the 20-29 age group, trending down in the the 40-49 age group, and holding steady in most other groups.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 17, 2020, 12:32:24 PM
GA cases are up from about 600 to about 900 per day, hospitalizations are up maybe 5% over the same period, so more cases, less severe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 17, 2020, 12:32:36 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 17, 2020, 12:10:43 PM
I don't read any articles, I only look at the numbers. 

TX and AZ are the most concerning.

tier2:

CA, FL, NC

on the radar:
VA, IL, AL, TN, SC, LA

Mix of red and blue states, as you can see.
IMHO Florida should be tier 1. Their numbers are flat out SPIKING right now, not just rising. If you look both at daily numbers and the 7-day moving average, it's like it's turning exponential again. 

Texas, with the exception of the huge spike yesterday, hasn't shown anything that makes me think they should be tier 1. If you look at their 7-day moving average, it's following basically the same trend as CA. Meandering higher each day, but not changing slope. And that one-day spike looks to me like it might have some sort of reporting anomaly, and may not reflect a single-day jump. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 17, 2020, 12:38:34 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 17, 2020, 12:16:23 PM
One also could claim the protests are the cause of these upticks.  I don't, because the data aren't there, but it is one possibility.
I think the lag is even beyond 10-14 days. Remember that exponentials look small at first, and when R0 starts getting above 1, it's an exponential.

Let's say 10 protesters at a 10,000 person protest had COVID-19. Each of those protesters infects 10 people--which might be high or low in that sort of environment. That's 100 people.

Well, a week or even later (considering a several-day lag between an administered test and getting results) those 100 people infected by 10 will be barely a blip in the radar.

Now let's say that right before those 100 people started showing symptoms, they've infected 3 people each before quarantining. Given that they were willing to go out in public protesting, maybe they're not exactly social distancing well anyway. So now you get 300 more cases, but again it takes another week+ for those 300 to show up. You barely start to see a turn in the trendline. 

When those 300 infect another 900, and when those 900 infect another 2700, then you start seeing the numbers turn in big enough ways to really notice. But now you're a good 4 weeks post-protest before you've seen the numbers reflect the spread that occurred at those protests.

We're impatient. If we want to blame protests we think we should see 2700 cases pop up within 7 days of protests starting... That's not exactly how exponential curves of infectious diseases look.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 17, 2020, 12:41:03 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 17, 2020, 12:21:18 PM
if only a state opening up was the only factor                              protests

not sure why Minn Tex Ca are having an increase in cases            protests


Yes, protests are part of it.  Where did someone say it wasn't? 

The way you go about this is disgusting, though.  It's like you're cheering for it to be protests more than the entirety of a state re-opening.  Stop cheerleading your narrative.  Follow the EVIDENCE.  At least pretend to be impartial.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 17, 2020, 12:50:46 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 17, 2020, 12:32:36 PM
IMHO Florida should be tier 1. Their numbers are flat out SPIKING right now, not just rising. If you look both at daily numbers and the 7-day moving average, it's like it's turning exponential again.

Texas, with the exception of the huge spike yesterday, hasn't shown anything that makes me think they should be tier 1. If you look at their 7-day moving average, it's following basically the same trend as CA. Meandering higher each day, but not changing slope. And that one-day spike looks to me like it might have some sort of reporting anomaly, and may not reflect a single-day jump.
I won't argue with FL being tier 1.  

MN isn't high enough yet to concern me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 17, 2020, 12:51:17 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 17, 2020, 12:21:18 PM
if only a state opening up was the only factor                              protests

not sure why Minn Tex Ca are having an increase in cases            protests
First, get your facts right. Minnesota daily new cases are going down, and going down fast: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/minnesota-coronavirus-cases.html (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/minnesota-coronavirus-cases.html)

Second, the daily new case counts in CA and TX have been going up, smoothly, on a pretty similar slope, in both CA and TX. If we had seen an inflection or increase in slope shortly following the protests, maybe you can blame the protests. But in both states the current rate of increase follows similar slope to the rate of increase before the protests could have had any effect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 17, 2020, 12:56:11 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 17, 2020, 12:41:03 PM
Yes, protests are part of it.  Where did someone say it wasn't?

The way you go about this is disgusting, though.  It's like you're cheering for it to be protests more than the entirety of a state re-opening.  Stop cheerleading your narrative.  Follow the EVIDENCE.  At least pretend to be impartial. 
I am hoping it is mainly caused by the protests simply cause the number of cases will decline a few weeks after the protests stop

Im not making a statement of agreement or disagreement with the protests

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 17, 2020, 01:02:10 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 17, 2020, 12:32:36 PM
IMHO Florida should be tier 1. Their numbers are flat out SPIKING right now, not just rising. If you look both at daily numbers and the 7-day moving average, it's like it's turning exponential again.

Texas, with the exception of the huge spike yesterday, hasn't shown anything that makes me think they should be tier 1. If you look at their 7-day moving average, it's following basically the same trend as CA. Meandering higher each day, but not changing slope. And that one-day spike looks to me like it might have some sort of reporting anomaly, and may not reflect a single-day jump.

Huge spike in Texas came partially from two counties reporting a large quantity of previously unreported cases.  

"The reported cases for June 16 include 2,622 new cases and 1,476 cases that were previously diagnosed among Texas Department of Criminal Justice inmates but that had not been reported by local health departments (887 from Anderson County and 589 from Brazoria County)." [source (https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83)]

However, even 2622 would be a record and that means that previous days did NOT include some large spikes that should have been there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 17, 2020, 01:09:43 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 17, 2020, 12:51:17 PM
First, get your facts right. Minnesota daily new cases are going down, and going down fast: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/minnesota-coronavirus-cases.html (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/minnesota-coronavirus-cases.html)

Second, the daily new case counts in CA and TX have been going up, smoothly, on a pretty similar slope, in both CA and TX. If we had seen an inflection or increase in slope shortly following the protests, maybe you can blame the protests. But in both states the current rate of increase follows similar slope to the rate of increase before the protests could have had any effect.
Texas cases started its increase a few days after the protests started

California case numbers took a jump up a few days after the protests started

not saying the protests is the only cause of increased cases only that it should be considered as one of the causes
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 17, 2020, 01:12:19 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 17, 2020, 01:02:10 PM
Huge spike in Texas came partially from two counties reporting a large quantity of previously unreported cases. 

"The reported cases for June 16 include 2,622 new cases and 1,476 cases that were previously diagnosed among Texas Department of Criminal Justice inmates but that had not been reported by local health departments (887 from Anderson County and 589 from Brazoria County)." [source (https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83)]

However, even 2622 would be a record and that means that previous days did NOT include some large spikes that should have been there.
Thanks for the note. That's helpful info.

BTW it would still be a record, but in a state with a steady upslope in case counts you're going to see record days. In the previous 2 weeks, Texas had already had 3 record days, so it's 4 record days in 15. Since May 26, CA has had 5 record days. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 17, 2020, 01:17:22 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 17, 2020, 01:12:19 PM
Thanks for the note. That's helpful info.

BTW it would still be a record, but in a state with a steady upslope in case counts you're going to see record days. In the previous 2 weeks, Texas had already had 3 record days, so it's 4 record days in 15. Since May 26, CA has had 5 record days.

So what happened on May 26th
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 17, 2020, 01:19:38 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 17, 2020, 12:10:48 PM
AZ is up because Governor Ducey opened up the state when daddy Trump told him to.  The sharp up-tick in cases is from people going back out into the world, most without masks. 

that's on Ducey, not Daddy
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 17, 2020, 01:22:14 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 17, 2020, 12:51:17 PM
First, get your facts right. Minnesota daily new cases are going down, and going down fast: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/minnesota-coronavirus-cases.html (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/minnesota-coronavirus-cases.html)

Second, the daily new case counts in CA and TX have been going up, smoothly, on a pretty similar slope, in both CA and TX. If we had seen an inflection or increase in slope shortly following the protests, maybe you can blame the protests. But in both states the current rate of increase follows similar slope to the rate of increase before the protests could have had any effect.

I won't speak for California, or even the rest of Texas, but in Austin I don't believe your statement is necessarily true.  Large protests started 3 weeks ago, the largest increasing age group of new cases in Austin is 20-29, and this is what the case trend looks like in Austin:

[img width=500 height=202.986]https://i.ibb.co/H439vMm/Austin-Covid.png[/img]

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984 (https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984)

That's not smooth and steady, by any definition.

Whereas, 3 weeks after reopening on May 1, all trends in Austin metro were actually going down, and continued trending down for 3 weeks-- until this most recent uptick began within the last 10 days.

There's no way to know for sure-- contract tracers are not allowed to ask if the positive test cases attended any protests-- but I believe there's at least some reasonable evidence, in Austin, that the protests are having an effect on the current increasing case counts.





Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 17, 2020, 01:23:29 PM
I tell people here that Ducey is trying to be Trump Jr and run for prez in 2024 if Trump is re-elected.  They always look like they smell a nasty fart when I say it.  

Ducey is a Trump stooge, trying to get onto Trump's radar.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 17, 2020, 01:25:47 PM
that is also Ducey's fault, not Daddy's
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 17, 2020, 01:27:49 PM
Below is a link to a Lancet meta-analysis of studies regarding masks, social distancing, and eye protection. Bottom line: if exposed to someone with the virus, your likelihood of becoming infected sans mask use was 17.4%. With a normal fabric mask, the probability drops down to 3.1%. The effect is even more pronounced with an N95 mask.

I only skimmed to study, it's pretty heavy going, but there are others things it found, such as eye protection being a big help, and the fact that social distancing of 1 meter is better than nothing, 2 meters is better but doesn't offer full protection.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext)


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 17, 2020, 01:28:50 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 17, 2020, 01:09:43 PM
Texas cases started its increase a few days after the protests started

California case numbers took a jump up a few days after the protests started

not saying the protests is the only cause of increased cases only that it should be considered as one of the causes
Texas spike really started happening with phase 2 opening.

Protests probably didn't help matters.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 17, 2020, 01:30:37 PM
I bet you a dollar 3m of distancing is better than 2......
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 17, 2020, 01:34:46 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 17, 2020, 01:30:37 PM
I bet you a dollar 3m of distancing is better than 2......
Probably, but it might not be statistically significant enough to show up in any data, as it's a matter of exponential decay, and at that point you're well into the tail of the distribution.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 17, 2020, 01:37:30 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 17, 2020, 01:02:10 PM
Huge spike in Texas came partially from two counties reporting a large quantity of previously unreported cases. 

"The reported cases for June 16 include 2,622 new cases and 1,476 cases that were previously diagnosed among Texas Department of Criminal Justice inmates but that had not been reported by local health departments (887 from Anderson County and 589 from Brazoria County)." [source (https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83)]

However, even 2622 would be a record and that means that previous days did NOT include some large spikes that should have been there.
I figured it was data correction to have a spike like that.  

Right now I am concerned, but not terribly worried -- yet.  Texas and a few other places are showing consistent acceleration of the infection.  Rough guess -- I'm seeing increases of about 10% every week.  2,500 daily this week, probably 2750 daily next week, then in the 3000's in July, 5000s in August.   All of which Texas can probably handle, but it does pose a risk for football.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 17, 2020, 01:45:26 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 17, 2020, 01:37:30 PM
I figured it was data correction to have a spike like that. 

Right now I am concerned, but not terribly worried -- yet.  Texas and a few other places are showing consistent acceleration of the infection.  Rough guess -- I'm seeing increases of about 10% every week.  2,500 daily this week, probably 2750 daily next week, then in the 3000's in July, 5000s in August.  All of which Texas can probably handle, but it does pose a risk for football.

% utilization of hospitals and ICU is the metric that matters.  It's also the one that probably the most difficult to obtain, because there's not really a baseline for how much of an ICU could/should be dedicated to COVID.  Also, temporary ICUs can be stood up in some places, where necessary.  And finally, many hospitals have been reluctant to provide this data for various reasons, some related to security, some related to finance, and some related to simple extraneous overhead.

Regardless, in most municipalities in Texas, the authorities are concerned with the trend, but state that we still have reasonable capacity.  I guess we'll see, and I'm certainly hoping that the current trends flatten out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 17, 2020, 01:51:02 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 17, 2020, 01:27:49 PM
Below is a link to a Lancet meta-analysis of studies regarding masks, social distancing, and eye protection. Bottom line: if exposed to someone with the virus, your likelihood of becoming infected sans mask use was 17.4%. With a normal fabric mask, the probability drops down to 3.1%. The effect is even more pronounced with an N95 mask.

I only skimmed to study, it's pretty heavy going, but there are others things it found, such as eye protection being a big help, and the fact that social distancing of 1 meter is better than nothing, 2 meters is better but doesn't offer full protection.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS01 (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext)
40-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext)



I'm all-in for face masks, I now have several bad-ass Longhorn masks that make me look even more awesome than I already do. :)

But this right here confuses and concerns me:


Quote
Face mask use could result in a large reduction in risk of infection (n=2647; aOR 0·15, 95% CI 0·07 to 0·34, RD −14·3%, −15·9 to −10·7; low certainty), with stronger associations with N95 or similar respirators compared with disposable surgical masks or similar (eg, reusable 12–16-layer cotton masks; pinteraction=0·090; posterior probability >95%, low certainty). 

I'm not seeing ANYONE using a 12-16 layer cotton mask, if that even means what I think it means?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2020, 01:54:50 PM
I think the mask is the key. In my first 4-5 weeks in Florida, everyone was wearing them. That started to die off, to the point I no longer felt comfortable in a store. 

Combine the mask fatigue with massive protests, and there you have it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 17, 2020, 01:57:49 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 17, 2020, 01:09:43 PM
Texas cases started its increase a few days after the protests started

California case numbers took a jump up a few days after the protests started

not saying the protests is the only cause of increased cases only that it should be considered as one of the causes
Texas is a strange case. It looks like Texas started its statewide rise right on May 26. Yes, that was also the day after Floyd was killed. But given the amount of time it took protests to start spreading, and then if you build in lag time, there is no way that the cases could have spread quickly enough to be coincident with the May 26 start of the rise.

And I agree--protests SHOULD be considered one of the causes of rise. Some people did take precautions (masks & distancing) but others did not. To think that many people in close proximity had zero spread is just not sensible.

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 17, 2020, 01:17:22 PM
So what happened on May 26th
Day was picked because it was the first "record" day since May 9. California also had 4 record days between Apr 20 and May 9. 

If you look at the CA 7-day moving average, it was up until about Apr 8, paused/declined slightly until Apr 19, was up again to about May 9, paused/declined slightly until May 16, and then started its current trend up. Between May 16 (a Saturday), every single day except May 17-18 (Sun/Mon which are typical "low" days) was higher than May 16. That even includes the following Sun/Mon, May 23-24. 

So California's current rise started well before May 26--that was just the day that had passed the previous record of May 9. 

Quote from: utee94 on June 17, 2020, 01:22:14 PM
I won't speak for California, or even the rest of Texas, but in Austin I don't believe your statement is necessarily true.  Large protests started 3 weeks ago, the largest increasing age group of new cases in Austin is 20-29, and this is what the case trend looks like in Austin:

[img width=500 height=202.975]https://i.ibb.co/H439vMm/Austin-Covid.png[/img]

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984 (https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984)

That's not smooth and steady, by any definition.

Whereas, 3 weeks after reopening on May 1, all trends in Austin metro were actually going down, and continued trending down for 3 weeks-- until this most recent uptick began within the last 10 days.

There's no way to know for sure-- contract tracers are not allowed to ask if the positive test cases attended any protests-- but I believe there's at least some reasonable evidence, in Austin, that the protests are having an effect on the current increasing case counts.
Again, I think the protests definitely have an effect. I don't know specific to Austin whether the protests involved people who were actually taking precautions (masks/distancing) or not. I'm not trying to discount the idea that protests cause spread. 

I do think even beyond the protests (as that Florida link I provided above) may show, the younger folks tend to be trying to return to "normal" far more than anyone else. In addition to protests, if they're also hitting the bars, having parties, etc, that will increase the numbers too. 

I support reopening--but I think for too many people "reopening" means "back to normal", and that's going to be a problem. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2020, 02:04:17 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 17, 2020, 01:57:49 PM

I support reopening--but I think for too many people "reopening" means "back to normal", and that's going to be a problem.
This is where I'm at. Just because we are opening back up (we have to - most people NEED to work) doesn't mean we're out of the woods.

People need to keep wearing masks and keeping distance. It's not easy, but it's necessary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on June 17, 2020, 02:30:49 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 17, 2020, 01:23:29 PM
I tell people here that Ducey is trying to be Trump Jr and run for prez in 2024 if Trump is re-elected.  They always look like they smell a nasty fart when I say it. 

Ducey is a Trump stooge, trying to get onto Trump's radar. 
Except that he didn't, He was a good two weeks after Trump made his appeal for the states to open before Arizona started opening up. 

I know this because I actually wrote to him to complain that he wasn't starting to open things up, in spite of the statistics that I have seen that says COVID-19 isn't any more dangerous than the flu unless you are at an extreme age or have a serious underlying condition. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 17, 2020, 02:41:14 PM
The food pantry we volunteer at has went from a high of 200 + families has circled back to the old numbers of around 60-75 families.Maybe from folks going back to work.We were actually looking for somewhere to take the extra produce and dairy that would spoil so we took it to a nearby trailer park to seniors who can't get out much many too proud to sign up
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 17, 2020, 02:46:32 PM
A thing I see on FB is folks politicizing this by almost celebrating when a state with a governor they dislike is doing poorly.  Some were almost giddy when NY was posting terrible numbers, and others seem the same when they focus on AZ or FL or TX.  They like to say "SEE!!!  I TOLD you this would happen because that governor is a D/R!!!!"

And of course they only point to the states that are experiencing whatever fits their world view and ignore the rest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 17, 2020, 03:16:40 PM
I refer to "those" folks as asshats
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 17, 2020, 03:30:48 PM
I ignore all idiots that post political crap of ANY persuasion on Facebook, makes life very pleasant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 17, 2020, 03:35:37 PM
I ignore facebook,they wouldn't take my picture anyway
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 17, 2020, 06:06:49 PM
From the NYT.

Europe vs. the U.S.

The coronavirus began to ravage Europe weeks before the United States. At the peak, in early April, more than 3,000 people in Italy, Spain and the rest of Western Europe were dying each day — a substantially higher toll than in the U.S.
Over the past two months, however, Europe has succeeded at crushing the virus, and the U.S. has not. Just look at this chart (which compares the U.S. to a contiguous 16-country region of Western Europe with a nearly identical population):
(https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/hKkNY8cChJa-0cjsbrnGlohymQcfyjG7Os34ej7SioliJoSz65SdWAEw4NN3wruHQJ_BY1sDF1VIbzkKMo35VDP2nbRs8bWrAKdDEqRx5xq4qICXmrLuwUWV9A0-Zmwl-kN9orfYErptV6mKKFRyQrOCMkFe2_32zuzGtzPHZkjalik7WiALP0U=s0-d-e1-ft#https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/06/17/multimedia/17-MORNING-COVID-DEATHS/17-MORNING-COVID-DEATHS-articleLarge.png)
By The New York Times | Source: Johns Hopkins University
European countries have used a combination of lockdowns, public health guidance, tests and contact tracing to beat back the virus. Large parts of Europe have begun reopening (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/3Qjpv0KiKth8aw-i5IyY2A~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgzHjEP0TkaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wNi8xMi90cmF2ZWwvcmVvcGVuaW5nLWV1cm9wZS1jYXJpYmJlYW4tdmlydXMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjAwNjE3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE5NDYyJm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9MTM1NzkxMDI5JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MzExMTMmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTVhZTZhNGJlMGYyZDAzZThjYzI2MGUwNzI3YTcyM2M1VwNueXRCCgAixPPpXjMTf2BSE3JicmlnZ3NAYml4Ynlwcy5vcmdYBAAAAAA~), including schools, so far without sparking major new outbreaks (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/lw1-o-ihYKgfz9SFs-O7dQ~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgzHjEP4QCAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lndzai5jb20vYXJ0aWNsZXMvYXMtY291bnRyaWVzLXJlb3Blbi1tYW55LWF2b2lkLWEtc2Vjb25kLXdhdmUtb2YtY292aWQtMTktY2FzZXNzby1mYXItMTE1OTE2MzgwMDc_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIwMDYxNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xOTQ2MiZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTEzNTc5MTAyOSZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTMxMTEzJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD01YWU2YTRiZTBmMmQwM2U4Y2MyNjBlMDcyN2E3MjNjNVcDbnl0QgoAIsTz6V4zE39gUhNyYnJpZ2dzQGJpeGJ5cHMub3JnWAQAAAAA).
The U.S. response has been more scattered and less successful. “Government efforts to inform the public about the pandemic have been a colossal failure, which means that most people are hearing mixed and muffled messages about what to do,” Jonathan Bernstein, a political scientist and Bloomberg Opinion columnist, wrote this week (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/LKHOi7mo9pagcpPJN4mZAg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgzHjEP4QHAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmJsb29tYmVyZy5jb20vb3Bpbmlvbi9hcnRpY2xlcy8yMDIwLTA2LTE1L2Rvbi10LWJsYW1lLXRoZS1wdWJsaWMtZm9yLWNvcm9uYXZpcnVzLWNvbmZ1c2lvbi1ibGFtZS10cnVtcD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjAwNjE3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE5NDYyJm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9MTM1NzkxMDI5JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MzExMTMmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTVhZTZhNGJlMGYyZDAzZThjYzI2MGUwNzI3YTcyM2M1VwNueXRCCgAixPPpXjMTf2BSE3JicmlnZ3NAYml4Ynlwcy5vcmdYBAAAAAA~). “It’s not surprising that a lot of folks are believing misinformation as a result, and others are just throwing up their hands.”
Donald McNeil, who covers infectious diseases for The Times, points out that the U.S. states hit hardest and earliest by the virus, like New York and New Jersey, have followed a path similar to Europe’s: a terrible peak, followed by an aggressive response and falling caseloads.
“But I think a lot of states reopened pretty willy-nilly after pressure from small businesses and citizens who were out of work and frustrated by lockdown and who had not seen the virus hit anyone they knew yet,” Donald told us. “A lot of those states — Texas, Florida, Arizona, North and South Carolina, etc. — are now seeing cases and hospitalizations rise.”
On Tuesday, Arizona, Florida and Texas all reported their largest one-day increases in new cases (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/7vqnEoILMqEpQB0ic8ElCQ~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgzHjEP0TpaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wNi8xNi93b3JsZC9jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy1saXZlLXVwZGF0ZXMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjAwNjE3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE5NDYyJm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9MTM1NzkxMDI5JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MzExMTMmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTVhZTZhNGJlMGYyZDAzZThjYzI2MGUwNzI3YTcyM2M1I2xpbmstNzg3YzIzOWRXA255dEIKACLE8-leMxN_YFITcmJyaWdnc0BiaXhieXBzLm9yZ1gEAAAAAA~~).
The combined death count in those 16 European countries (about 121,000) remains higher than in the U.S. (about 117,000). But at the current pace, the U.S. toll will be higher by next week.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 17, 2020, 06:08:41 PM
Note how they don't mention Georgia.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 17, 2020, 06:36:17 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 17, 2020, 06:06:49 PM
(https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/hKkNY8cChJa-0cjsbrnGlohymQcfyjG7Os34ej7SioliJoSz65SdWAEw4NN3wruHQJ_BY1sDF1VIbzkKMo35VDP2nbRs8bWrAKdDEqRx5xq4qICXmrLuwUWV9A0-Zmwl-kN9orfYErptV6mKKFRyQrOCMkFe2_32zuzGtzPHZkjalik7WiALP0U=s0-d-e1-ft#https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/06/17/multimedia/17-MORNING-COVID-DEATHS/17-MORNING-COVID-DEATHS-articleLarge.png)

By The New York Times | Source: Johns Hopkins University

I like this chart a little more:


(https://i.imgur.com/yqJtyQC.png)

A couple of reasons:


I think this is a better way to look at things than the typical US vs individual Euro countries, because just as the US isn't a monolith, neither is Europe. Aggregating them as a whole brings both the good responses and the bad responses together. 

But I still say that we won't know much until we see how Europe actually responds once they reopen. Also whether their "reopening" involves them doing basic mitigation that Americans don't seem to be willing to do, like masks and distancing.


In neither Europe, nor the US, nor China (as we see with the Beijing outbreak) have we gotten anywhere near herd immunity. So everywhere in the world is poised for continued outbreaks if we relax too much. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 17, 2020, 06:46:46 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 17, 2020, 06:08:41 PM
Note how they don't mention Georgia.
They don't mention Oklahoma either.

That will probably change starting 2 weeks from Saturday, when 1 million (maybe it's 3 million) unmasked people attend a rally in a 19,000-seat arena.  My wife saw a picture of the hats that are being sold.  "Trump 2020: No Snowflakes."

There's some talk about a different venue--the University of Tulsa's football stadium--but I think it's too late to change.

The venue is downtown, so the courthouse will be closed Friday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2020, 06:48:01 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 17, 2020, 06:08:41 PM
Note how they don't mention Georgia.
Or Wisconsin.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 17, 2020, 06:48:28 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 17, 2020, 06:36:17 PM
I like this chart a little more:


[img width=500 height=245.98]https://i.imgur.com/yqJtyQC.png[/img]

A couple of reasons:

  • It presents in deaths/1M population, which gives a much more apples to apples comparison since Europe as a whole is more populous than the US.
  • By lagging the data 12 days, you can actually match the curves and responses much more effectively.

I think this is a better way to look at things than the typical US vs individual Euro countries, because just as the US isn't a monolith, neither is Europe. Aggregating them as a whole brings both the good responses and the bad responses together.

But I still say that we won't know much until we see how Europe actually responds once they reopen. Also whether their "reopening" involves them doing basic mitigation that Americans don't seem to be willing to do, like masks and distancing.


In neither Europe, nor the US, nor China (as we see with the Beijing outbreak) have we gotten anywhere near herd immunity. So everywhere in the world is poised for continued outbreaks if we relax too much.
I like your chart better too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2020, 06:49:14 PM
Keep wearing your masks, as much as it sucks. It sucks even more when it gets warmer/hot outside. But, just do it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2020, 06:50:53 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 17, 2020, 06:06:49 PM
From the NYT.
Of course. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 17, 2020, 06:51:17 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2020, 06:49:14 PM
Keep wearing your masks, as much as it sucks. It sucks even more when it gets warmer/hot outside. But, just do it.
Man, you are one freedom-killing bastage, Badge!
What will you demand next--that people wash their hands?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 17, 2020, 06:53:15 PM
They also don't mention California, whose graphs look pretty darn close to Texas' -- perhaps worse because we were rising the whole time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2020, 06:54:05 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 17, 2020, 06:51:17 PM
Man, you are one freedom-killing bastage, Badge!
What will you demand next--that people wash their hands?
I hope this is a game-changer on that.

Can't tell you how many times I've been disgusted by people who leave the men's room without doing so. Even now, I've seen a few. Sickening.

And... no more buffets!! Bonus!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 17, 2020, 07:01:06 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 17, 2020, 06:53:15 PM
They also don't mention California, whose graphs look pretty darn close to Texas' -- perhaps worse because we were rising the whole time.
I feel like California probably locked down "harder" and "longer" than Texas, too?  Or maybe that's just my perception based on... nothing? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 17, 2020, 07:17:41 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 17, 2020, 07:01:06 PM
I feel like California probably locked down "harder" and "longer" than Texas, too?  Or maybe that's just my perception based on... nothing?
Tough to say, really. I think we locked down earlier. I think the Bay Area has remained a lot more locked down than a lot of places.

But as I posted here over these many months, we had things like people swarming the beaches followed by people angrily protesting in Huntington Beach due to beach closures. We had restaurants here in Orange County choosing to open in complete violation of the guidelines and daring the county to do anything about it (which they wouldn't, because Orange County hates Newsome). I can say that there were people performing services (like hair, nails, etc) under the radar in their homes which wasn't allowed. And our County Health Director resigned after getting protesters at her house and a death threat for mandating masks.

I don't really trust that people took the lockdown seriously after a few weeks. And as I mentioned about going to our wine bar during their soft reopen 2 1/2 weeks ago vs going last Friday, things like mask usage just seemed to disappear. Literally I felt like everyone was looking at me like *I* was the asshole for daring to wear a mask.

So... Yeah. That's your perception, and it's valid based on what Californians were supposed to be doing. It just doesn't really describe what they were actually doing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 17, 2020, 08:54:56 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2020, 06:48:01 PM
Or Wisconsin.
Georgia, Oklahoma and Wisconsin.  Red Uniforms. Easy as pie to not be political- and stick to football. 😂😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 17, 2020, 09:34:40 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2020, 06:54:05 PM
I hope this is a game-changer on that.

Can't tell you how many times I've been disgusted by people who leave the men's room without doing so. Even now, I've seen a few. Sickening.

And... no more buffets!! Bonus!!
Oh yeah for at least 3 decades I haven't touched the community bowls on the pub tables/bar.Just takes one
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 17, 2020, 10:05:23 PM
Ugly day in CA / TX / FL. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 17, 2020, 11:13:44 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 17, 2020, 10:05:23 PM
Ugly day in CA / TX / FL.
This isn’t looking good for football. 

AZ and NC bad, too. SC and AL are worrisome.  Ughhhhh
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on June 17, 2020, 11:32:53 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2020, 06:54:05 PM
I hope this is a game-changer on that.

Can't tell you how many times I've been disgusted by people who leave the men's room without doing so. Even now, I've seen a few. Sickening.

And... no more buffets!! Bonus!!
Dammit.

I live in a plays famous for a really good kind of buffet, and DAMMIT I want that back. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 18, 2020, 07:22:51 AM
So, what can be done realistically?  Shut'er down again?  I don't see that happening, even if the rates triple from here.  We wade through it?

I think we could have some stay at home orders for folks over 65.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 18, 2020, 08:14:06 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 17, 2020, 10:05:23 PM
Ugly day in CA / TX / FL.
It was better than the day prior for FL. Tuesday was highest count ever, but was much lower on Monday (of course).

Positivity rate is hovering at around 4 percent, which is up a little.

Deaths are way down. 6 people died Tuesday, bringing the total to 3,018.

Illinois had 87 deaths on Tuesday, bringing its total to 6,507.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 18, 2020, 08:27:38 AM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 17, 2020, 11:13:44 PM
This isn’t looking good for football.


This is:


MADISON, Wis. – The outline for college football to return this fall has been laid out.

Late Wednesday evening, the NCAA Division I Council approved the Division 1 Football Oversight Committee’s recommendation for summer athletic activities and preseason practice for the upcoming 2020 season.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 18, 2020, 08:45:01 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 18, 2020, 07:22:51 AM
So, what can be done realistically?  Shut'er down again?  I don't see that happening, even if the rates triple from here.  We wade through it?

I think we could have some stay at home orders for folks over 65.
No orders. Strongly encourage old folks over 65 and those with weakened immune systems to stay home, but don't force anyone to do shit. Literally 74% of coronavirus deaths were 65 or older. Another 23%+ were those 45 or older. Less than 1% of deaths were 0-18 years old. And not even 3% were 18 to 44.

We stop being a bunch of little pussy ass pansies and power through it. That's what we do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 18, 2020, 08:52:25 AM
I think there is no real choice but to protect the vulnerable to the extent rational, encourage people to wear face masks when in crowds and stay home if mildly sick, and get on with it.  Sweden was not a catastrophe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 18, 2020, 08:58:05 AM
Just saw that 8 K-State football players have tested positive:

https://www.kmbc.com/article/eight-k-state-football-players-test-positive-for-covid-19-coronavirus-1592446324/32898773 (https://www.kmbc.com/article/eight-k-state-football-players-test-positive-for-covid-19-coronavirus-1592446324/32898773)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 18, 2020, 09:06:12 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 18, 2020, 08:58:05 AM
Just saw that 8 K-State football players have tested positive:

https://www.kmbc.com/article/eight-k-state-football-players-test-positive-for-covid-19-coronavirus-1592446324/32898773 (https://www.kmbc.com/article/eight-k-state-football-players-test-positive-for-covid-19-coronavirus-1592446324/32898773)
how many are symptomatic?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 18, 2020, 09:20:56 AM
https://www.ajc.com/sports/college/ncaa-sets-six-week-practice-plan-for-football/rpJacBjTg1w7dZmBkaXwJN/ (https://www.ajc.com/sports/college/ncaa-sets-six-week-practice-plan-for-football/rpJacBjTg1w7dZmBkaXwJN/)

I would imagine most are asymptomatic, or with light symptoms.  Eight is a large number obviously.

It is very possible teams early in the schedule will be missing important players who test +.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 18, 2020, 09:28:09 AM
From the story, it appears it was a blanket test of 130 players, not due to any single specific player being symptomatic. So it wouldn't surprise me if all 8 were asymptomatic, at least at the time of the test. 

The story wasn't clear on the matter, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 18, 2020, 09:51:03 AM
There is asymptomatic and presymptomatic (and false positives at times).  They will have to be screened daily I suspect.  As noted here by others, young people off on their own still engage in various and sundry.  Imagine if Justin Fields gets it in September.

And some teams might be playing without half their starters, it's possible.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 18, 2020, 10:44:57 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 17, 2020, 03:35:37 PM
I ignore facebook,they wouldn't take my picture anyway
apparently, this site won't accept your mugshot either
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on June 18, 2020, 10:47:41 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 17, 2020, 06:49:14 PM
Keep wearing your masks, as much as it sucks. It sucks even more when it gets warmer/hot outside. But, just do it.

Not sure why this isn't promoted more and fought less...  people want lives to go back to as normal as possible.   A mask is a bridge.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 18, 2020, 10:48:50 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 18, 2020, 09:28:09 AM
The story wasn't clear on the matter, though.
shocking
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 18, 2020, 10:49:44 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 18, 2020, 09:51:03 AM
And some teams might be playing without half their starters, it's possible.


it will be shut down if it comes to this
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on June 18, 2020, 10:51:57 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 18, 2020, 08:52:25 AM
I think there is no real choice but to protect the vulnerable to the extent rational, encourage people to wear face masks when in crowds and stay home if mildly sick, and get on with it.  Sweden was not a catastrophe.

I'd say wearing masks should be required when indoors (not at your home) or in outdoors with crowds.   Walking your dog=no mask.   We know it works.  People need to get over the fact that they suck.   It's not a forever proposition.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 18, 2020, 11:04:31 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 18, 2020, 08:14:06 AM
It was better than the day prior for FL. Tuesday was highest count ever, but was much lower on Monday (of course).

Positivity rate is hovering at around 4 percent, which is up a little.

Deaths are way down. 6 people died Tuesday, bringing the total to 3,018.

Illinois had 87 deaths on Tuesday, bringing its total to 6,507.
2700 new cases reported today, versus 2500 the day prior. Tuesday revised to 11 deaths. 5 deaths yesterday. Hospitalizations are generally flat, with a lot of capacity available.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on June 18, 2020, 11:23:06 AM
Quote from: Entropy on June 18, 2020, 10:51:57 AM
I'd say wearing masks should be required when indoors (not at your home) or in outdoors with crowds.  Walking your dog=no mask.  We know it works.  People need to get over the fact that they suck.  It's not a forever proposition. 
That's what I don't get, they need to be enforcing it.  Every store has a sign up saying you must wear one, or you won't be allowed in, and 95% of the people are, but there's always a couple asshats who aren't, with no repercussions.

I picked up pizza from a local place, and one customer wasn't wearing one.  I kind of get that small businesses like that are in a bad position to enforce it (and it sucks that a-holes out there make them make that choice), but larger chains, like Lowes or Target, absolutely should be able to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on June 18, 2020, 11:23:59 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 18, 2020, 08:45:01 AM
No orders. Strongly encourage old folks over 65 and those with weakened immune systems to stay home, but don't force anyone to do shit. Literally 74% of coronavirus deaths were 65 or older. Another 23%+ were those 45 or older. Less than 1% of deaths were 0-18 years old. And not even 3% were 18 to 44.

We stop being a bunch of little pussy ass pansies and power through it. That's what we do.
This.  Stop relying on the government to make your decisions for you.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 18, 2020, 12:26:14 PM
Quote from: Gigem on June 18, 2020, 11:23:59 AM
This.  Stop relying on the government to make your decisions for you. 
This is a gross oversimplification of the world and I find it annoying. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 18, 2020, 12:31:30 PM
It's simple...

Masks aren't magic. Masks won't 100% prevent you from getting the virus. They won't 100% prevent you from spreading the virus. They will help, but no guarantees.

So the goal isn't to analyze this from the "me, me, it's all about me" perspective of "should I wear a mask based on my own personal risk profile?"

The idea is if we ALL wear masks, then we'll inhibit the spread greatly. And if we inhibit the spread greatly, we'll protect those vulnerable populations much more effectively than telling them to go hide in their homes--because they need food, they need to go to doctor's appointments, etc. They're going to interact with the public to some extent, even if they're trying to minimize it.

It's about helping the rest of us, not just yourself. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 18, 2020, 12:36:55 PM
Yeah, too many think  the face mask is to protect the wearer, and they get to where they don't care and stop wearing it.  There is a lot of resistance to wearing one from some folks.  I understand they fog your glasses and can be hot, but I wear one any time I'm around a lot of people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on June 18, 2020, 12:51:23 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 18, 2020, 12:36:55 PM
Yeah, too many think  the face mask is to protect the wearer, and they get to where they don't care and stop wearing it.  There is a lot of resistance to wearing one from some folks.  I understand they fog your glasses and can be hot, but I wear one any time I'm around a lot of people.
  I'd love to be shirtless and have no shoes, but we all agree with that standard when entering most businesses.   This is temporary.  I think people, in general, are assholes.   We were born bad and have to work at being good.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 18, 2020, 12:58:31 PM
I think people, in general, are very nice.  The problem is we tend to remember the ones who are not, or who act badly.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 18, 2020, 01:07:33 PM
I think, in general, some people are nice, and some people are assholes.

But we all agree to live in this society so there are times when we have to sacrifice for the common good.

Businesses need to require masks, and enforce it, even if the government isn't mandating it.  We the people need to make businesses understand this is our expectation of them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 18, 2020, 01:08:56 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 18, 2020, 01:07:33 PM
Businesses need to require masks, and enforce it, even if the government isn't mandating it. 
In Michigan that might get you shot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 18, 2020, 01:16:23 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 18, 2020, 12:31:30 PM
It's about helping the rest of us, not just yourself.
A certain half of our country lacks this empathy.  Funny, it's the same half that's most likely to help you change a tire or tow you out of some mud.  But since it's someone else telling them it's for the best, FORGET IT.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 18, 2020, 01:37:38 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 18, 2020, 01:16:23 PM
A certain half of our country lacks this empathy.  Funny, it's the same half that's most likely to help you change a tire or tow you out of some mud.  But since it's someone else telling them it's for the best, FORGET IT.
This is exactly why we shouldn't rely on government to tell us what to do. We should all know better and do it ourselves.

The same people who hoarded masks and wore them when the government said it wouldn't help are the ones today who refuse to wear them.

It's not just kids who do the opposite of what they are told. Many people just haven't grown up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on June 18, 2020, 01:43:35 PM
I think there is a fear of what others will think of them if they wear a mask, too.  I believe some people associate wearing a mask with being afraid and they don’t want to be viewed that way.

They are essentially afraid people will think they are afraid.  I can’t prove that but just based on some conversations and intuition.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 18, 2020, 01:51:22 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on June 18, 2020, 01:43:35 PM
I think there is a fear of what others will think of them if they wear a mask, too.  I believe some people associate wearing a mask with being afraid and they don’t want to be viewed that way.

They are essentially afraid people will think they are afraid.  I can’t prove that but just based on some conversations and intuition.
Yeah I could certainly see that.

I'm glad I live in Austin where it's okay to look like a pansy wearing a mask.  I feel sorry for some of you people in other places where you get mask-shamed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 18, 2020, 02:04:39 PM
In college football Corona news, 13 UT players have tested positive, in addition to the two that tested positive last week.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06/18/coronavirus-university-texas-football/ (https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06/18/coronavirus-university-texas-football/)

Looks like our plan of having "COVID parties" is paying off, we'll get the team all infected and done with corona, and be the first and only college football team to field all of its starters for the whole year!


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 18, 2020, 02:10:53 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 18, 2020, 02:04:39 PM
In college football Corona news, 13 UT players have tested positive, in addition to the two that tested positive last week.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06/18/coronavirus-university-texas-football/ (https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06/18/coronavirus-university-texas-football/)

Looks like our plan of having "COVID parties" is paying off, we'll get the team all infected and done with corona, and be the first and only college football team to field all of its starters for the whole year!



not only that the regular season will be 12 inter squad games and we will go 12 and 0
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 18, 2020, 02:12:17 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 18, 2020, 02:04:39 PM
In college football Corona news, 13 UT players have tested positive, in addition to the two that tested positive last week.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06/18/coronavirus-university-texas-football/ (https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06/18/coronavirus-university-texas-football/)

Looks like our plan of having "COVID parties" is paying off, we'll get the team all infected and done with corona, and be the first and only college football team to field all of its starters for the whole year!



I'd like to see serology results for the rest of the team. I'm thinking many more than 13 have already had it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 18, 2020, 02:20:08 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 18, 2020, 02:12:17 PM
I'd like to see serology results for the rest of the team. I'm thinking many more than 13 have already had it.
4 others were reported to have antibodies.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 18, 2020, 02:39:40 PM
Based on new testing, or prior?

The new ones are supposedly more reliable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 18, 2020, 02:44:15 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 18, 2020, 02:39:40 PM
Based on new testing, or prior?

The new ones are supposedly more reliable.
These were all conducted as players have reported over the past 2 weeks for "voluntary" workouts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on June 18, 2020, 03:39:29 PM
Granted more good news for how MI has handled it

https://twitter.com/mwenzel2/status/1273695915912593410?s=19

https://twitter.com/BFQuinn/status/1273675560552669184?s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 18, 2020, 03:51:16 PM
They only think that's good news.

In September, when all of our starters are playing because they rolled around in the COVID back in June, and all of their starters are sitting in quarantine because of that house party they went to after the big win over  Ball State, they're gonna WISH they'd had Corona-parties like those fart smuckers at Texas! 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 18, 2020, 04:07:07 PM
#ImOverCorona

#2020SucksAss

#WorstYearEver?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 18, 2020, 04:31:12 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 18, 2020, 04:07:07 PM
#ImOverCorona

#2020SucksAss

#WorstYearEver?
I lost one of my closest friends in the world, like a sister to me, to effing breast cancer in 2019.  So for me, 2020 will have to get a lot worse to make my worst year ever.

***crossing fingers that 2020 doesn't hear me, and comply***


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 18, 2020, 04:58:51 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 18, 2020, 04:31:12 PM
I lost one of my closest friends in the world, like a sister to me, to effing breast cancer in 2019.  So for me, 2020 will have to get a lot worse to make my worst year ever.

***crossing fingers that 2020 doesn't hear me, and comply***
Cancer is a motherfucker. 

I can’t ever remember a year as screwed up as 2020 though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 18, 2020, 05:32:18 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 18, 2020, 04:58:51 PM
Cancer is a motherfucker.

I can’t ever remember a year as screwed up as 2020 though.
Here, let me help you.

Ohio State is stricken with the coronavirus before the Michigan game.  All of the starters have to sit out, and Ryan Day begs kids at the freshman dorm to come out and play in order to avoid a forfeit.

Michigan goes on to win by a score of 223-0.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 18, 2020, 06:08:44 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 18, 2020, 05:32:18 PM
Here, let me help you.

Ohio State is stricken with the coronavirus before the Michigan game.  All of the starters have to sit out, and Ryan Day begs kids at the freshman dorm to come out and play in order to avoid a forfeit.

Michigan goes on to win by a score of 223-0.
I mean, aside from a bunch of college kids getting the coronas, I'm completely fine with this outcome. :)

And those kids are young and healthy, they'll be FINE.... ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 18, 2020, 06:15:38 PM
Gavin Newsom just issued a statewide order to wear masks. 

Somehow I don't think it will make any difference here in Orange County, where I doubt our county sheriffs will enforce it. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 18, 2020, 06:22:32 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 18, 2020, 06:15:38 PM
Gavin Newsom just issued a statewide order to wear masks.

Somehow I don't think it will make any difference here in Orange County, where I doubt our county sheriffs will enforce it.



You big buncha right-wing "Muh Rights" enthusiasts!  ;)

(Okay I'm sorry, this time I brought up the politics.  Delete user, ban post!)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 18, 2020, 06:23:05 PM
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/fifty-four-scientists-have-lost-their-jobs-result-nih-probe-foreign-ties
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 18, 2020, 06:34:15 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 18, 2020, 06:22:32 PM
You big buncha right-wing "Muh Rights" enthusiasts!  ;)

(Okay I'm sorry, this time I brought up the politics.  Delete user, ban post!)
We'll see how many jackwagons have the stones to go protest outside the Governor's Mansion and send him death threats, like they did to our [former] County Health Director who issued a mask requirement.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 18, 2020, 08:14:00 PM
Welp, Texas is going to be over 3,000 again today.  This is slightly faster than I projected.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 19, 2020, 09:20:51 AM
You have your own model?

Anyway, Texas did 38K tests yesterday, 22K tests on Wednesday and 34K tests on Tuesday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 19, 2020, 09:23:46 AM
Very glad that none of those tests involved ME this time.

Unless of course my test from 2+ weeks ago is just now getting reported, which I suppose is possible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 19, 2020, 09:26:10 AM
Mrs. 847 came back negative for the Xi virus. I cancelled my test today as a result.

This afternoon we are getting the serology test done.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 19, 2020, 09:41:44 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/18/california-arizona-florida-report-record-spikes-in-coronavirus-cases.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/18/california-arizona-florida-report-record-spikes-in-coronavirus-cases.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 19, 2020, 10:08:10 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 18, 2020, 04:58:51 PM
Cancer is a motherfucker.

I can’t ever remember a year as screwed up as 2020 though.
you should have been around in 1968
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 19, 2020, 10:17:27 AM
I'm leaning to thinking CFB won't happen this year, or it may start up and get shut down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 19, 2020, 10:19:50 AM
don't type that out loud!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 19, 2020, 10:47:44 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 19, 2020, 10:17:27 AM
I'm leaning to thinking CFB won't happen this year, or it may start up and get shut down.
If this happens I might be rioting in the streets. 

I want to see some damn college football and heads will roll if I can’t.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 19, 2020, 11:03:26 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 19, 2020, 10:47:44 AM
If this happens I might be rioting in the streets.

I want to see some damn college football and heads will roll if I can’t.
Im holding my breath
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 19, 2020, 11:12:25 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 19, 2020, 10:08:10 AM
you should have been around in 1968
Buckeyes National Grid Iron Champs - was there anything else going on?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 19, 2020, 11:13:54 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 19, 2020, 10:17:27 AM
I'm leaning to thinking CFB won't happen this year, or it may start up and get shut down.
The Horror !!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 19, 2020, 12:26:05 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 19, 2020, 09:20:51 AM
You have your own model?

Anyway, Texas did 38K tests yesterday, 22K tests on Wednesday and 34K tests on Tuesday.
Just looking at the numbers.  If you go back a few pages you will see my projections on Texas.

Active cases in Texas should be double the active cases in PA by the end of the day as well.  

At this rate, Texas will be averaging in the neighborhood of 7,000 new cases per day by the time football starts.

This isn't just Texas, either.  NC, SC, AL, FL, AZ, CA, OK and more are all showing signs of exponential growth.

I don't know how football will happen if these trends continue.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 19, 2020, 12:30:57 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 19, 2020, 12:26:05 PM
Just looking at the numbers.  If you go back a few pages you will see my projections on Texas.

Active cases in Texas should be double the active cases in PA by the end of the day as well. 

At this rate, Texas will be averaging in the neighborhood of 7,000 new cases per day by the time football starts.

This isn't just Texas, either.  NC, SC, AL, FL, AZ, CA, OK and more are all showing signs of exponential growth.

I don't know how football will happen if these trends continue.
I still think two weeks after the protesting stops these figures will start declining

and before you jump all over me about this you better hope Im right
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 19, 2020, 12:45:26 PM
so there are more cases?  is this a big deal?

are there more hospitalizations and deaths?

are 12 cases on a 100 man roster of which 11 of them are asymptomatic and the 12th is a headache and fever enough to shut down a football program?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 19, 2020, 12:50:00 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 19, 2020, 12:45:26 PM
so there are more cases?  is this a big deal?

are there more hospitalizations and deaths?

are 12 cases on a 100 man roster of which 11 of them are asymptomatic and the 12th is a headache and fever enough to shut down a football program?
there are more hospitalizations trending up but deaths are trending down

This needs to improve or I dont think there will be college football
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 19, 2020, 12:51:05 PM
My guess is more people testing positive will go up just because there’s more readily available testing. 

But the deaths will go way down simply because this thing already ran through the most susceptible to be killed by it. This disease is MILD. It doesn’t kill that many who become infected, most who become infected have little to no symptoms at all.  

We can’t let people lose their shit and go bat shit crazy and drunk with power and try to enforce more lockdowns with no help at all for the regular working people. That will literally destroy an already cratering economy and turn this thing from a catastrophe into an apocalypse.

Have to stay open and let people get back to work and earn a living. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 19, 2020, 12:51:52 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 19, 2020, 12:26:05 PM
Just looking at the numbers.  If you go back a few pages you will see my projections on Texas.

Active cases in Texas should be double the active cases in PA by the end of the day as well. 

At this rate, Texas will be averaging in the neighborhood of 7,000 new cases per day by the time football starts.

This isn't just Texas, either.  NC, SC, AL, FL, AZ, CA, OK and more are all showing signs of exponential growth.

I don't know how football will happen if these trends continue.
I look at numbers too, and then I drill down to try and find out why the numbers are what they are.

My zip code in Florida had 8 cases when I showed up there on May 1, and it had 12 cases when I left last week. same as today, 12. Those original 8 are recovered for sure, since there have been zero deaths. There are countless other examples.

The spikes are happening in and around Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, St. Pete, Tampa. Connect the dots for your answer as to why Florida is seeing spikes. The raw numbers do not tell the story.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 19, 2020, 12:55:26 PM
I hope this only applies to NYC but fear its happening everywhere 

https://www.thecity.nyc/coronavirus/2020/6/14/21290963/nyc-covid-19-trackers-skipping-floyd-protest-questions-even-amid-fears-of-new-wave (https://www.thecity.nyc/coronavirus/2020/6/14/21290963/nyc-covid-19-trackers-skipping-floyd-protest-questions-even-amid-fears-of-new-wave)


notice how there is very little positive test results attached to protesting
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 19, 2020, 12:57:45 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 19, 2020, 12:55:26 PM
I hope this only applies to NYC but fear its happening everywhere

https://www.thecity.nyc/coronavirus/2020/6/14/21290963/nyc-covid-19-trackers-skipping-floyd-protest-questions-even-amid-fears-of-new-wave (https://www.thecity.nyc/coronavirus/2020/6/14/21290963/nyc-covid-19-trackers-skipping-floyd-protest-questions-even-amid-fears-of-new-wave)


notice how there is very little positive test results attached to protesting
Ridiculous. 

Oh and by the way Cuomo and De Blasio are scum.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 19, 2020, 01:04:28 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 19, 2020, 12:55:26 PM
I hope this only applies to NYC but fear its happening everywhere

https://www.thecity.nyc/coronavirus/2020/6/14/21290963/nyc-covid-19-trackers-skipping-floyd-protest-questions-even-amid-fears-of-new-wave (https://www.thecity.nyc/coronavirus/2020/6/14/21290963/nyc-covid-19-trackers-skipping-floyd-protest-questions-even-amid-fears-of-new-wave)


notice how there is very little positive test results attached to protesting
I'm not sure I believe much of anything being reported out of NYC/NY. These are the guys who sent people to nursing homes for a death sentence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 19, 2020, 01:05:09 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/19/apple-will-close-some-stores-again-as-covid-19-cases-reappear.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/19/apple-will-close-some-stores-again-as-covid-19-cases-reappear.html)



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 19, 2020, 01:06:56 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 19, 2020, 01:05:09 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/19/apple-will-close-some-stores-again-as-covid-19-cases-reappear.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/19/apple-will-close-some-stores-again-as-covid-19-cases-reappear.html)


  • Apple stock dropped on Friday after the company said planned to close some U.S. stores due to rising levels of Covid-19.
  • A total of 11 Apple stores will close in Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Arizona.
  • Customers who have products in these stores for repair will have the weekend to get their devices back.


oh the carnage
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 19, 2020, 01:15:47 PM
Well, we have ten weeks left more or less, and I don't see the COVID thing getting better, I see it getting worse.  As CFB teams test their players daily, or close to it, it seems likely to me that one or more will be positive after each test.  Then you have infections arising from exposure to that player in addition to players interacting with other students.  I don't see a way to put a lid on this short of stopping CFB.  We could see some teams ravaged by the virus, not necessarily players being all that symptomatic, but infected and ineligible for two weeks plus.

Many teams might see 20 players positive by September.  Is that overly pessimistic?  College life is ideal for viral spread.  The rest of us can minimize chances of being infected, but college students on campus?  Not so much, and not football players.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 19, 2020, 01:23:15 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 19, 2020, 12:30:57 PM
I still think two weeks after the protesting stops these figures will start declining

and before you jump all over me about this you better hope Im right


Imagine packing in tens of thousands of fans into a stadium.  A single football weekend could cause a spike similar to the protests.

Maybe they play with no fans.  I dunno.

Meanwhile, numbers continue to decline in the NE.  Maybe it is because we lived it firsthand and we saw how bad it can be.  I am not a religious man, but pray it does not hit anywhere else like it hit up here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 19, 2020, 01:29:39 PM
3,300 new cases in Florida yesterday - an all-time high.

6 deaths, continuing the downward trend on that metric.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 19, 2020, 01:35:39 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 19, 2020, 01:29:39 PM
3,300 new cases in Florida yesterday - an all-time high.

6 deaths, continuing the downward trend on that metric.
Keep in mind that Deaths typically lag infections by about 30-45 days.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 19, 2020, 01:42:36 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 19, 2020, 12:51:05 PM
My guess is more people testing positive will go up just because there’s more readily available testing.

But the deaths will go way down simply because this thing already ran through the most susceptible to be killed by it. This disease is MILD. It doesn’t kill that many who become infected, most who become infected have little to no symptoms at all. 

We can’t let people lose their shit and go bat shit crazy and drunk with power and try to enforce more lockdowns with no help at all for the regular working people. That will literally destroy an already cratering economy and turn this thing from a catastrophe into an apocalypse.

Have to stay open and let people get back to work and earn a living.
Really? I find that hard to believe.

Yes, it hit nursing homes and the most vulnerable very hard. But I think there's a LOT more vulnerable folks out there who have been spared exposure to it. 

If you look at the list of comorbidities, and you look at the death total of 120K to date, I think it's just patently obvious that there's a HUGE population still out there that have significant vulnerability and that have NOT been infected. 

I do think we need to open up--SMARTLY. Masks, distancing, people who can WFH should still do so, people who don't need to go out shouldn't be going out for unnecessary things, people should avoid large gatherings, etc. 

This thing isn't over by any stretch.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 19, 2020, 01:43:40 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 19, 2020, 01:06:56 PM
oh the carnage
That’s real carnage. Apple Stores employ about 116 people on average per store. Times that by 11. That’s almost 1,300 people out of a decent paying job with a great company to work for. All of this has a chain reaction. Those 1,300 people are going to struggle to be able to pay their rent, bills, credit cards, car payments- have less disposable income to spend at other businesses. It’s a vicious cycle. 

And those unemployment checks aren’t as easy to collect as some would make you think- especially if you live in a state like Florida. I know more than a few people who’ve had problem collecting those checks during this whole crisis. 

I had Starbucks looking at doing a deal on a property and that’s DOA because of this stupid pandemic. They were seriously interested and we were in discussions and I was getting site plans and sketches done on their request. Could’ve done a deal with them and sold it for a couple million- now it’s DEAD. Zero shot. Starbucks just closed 400 stores in North America because of this dumb shit and that’s anywhere from 7,000 to 10,000 jobs GONE. Landowners with a great tenant gone. Starbucks is pulling back on expansion at the moment and only looking to open new “pick-up” stores in the big urban markets. 

The economic fall out has yet to even begun. There’s an eviction/foreclosure crisis looming that has yet to hit. 

All thanks to a political class that decided to do next to nothing for the regular people. They let the fed juice up the stock market and buy up all kinds of junk bonds and crap to keep the richest 1% intact though. Gotta love the politicians in this country. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 19, 2020, 01:47:05 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 19, 2020, 01:35:39 PM
Keep in mind that Deaths typically lag infections by about 30-45 days.


I believe that the most vulnerable have already been taken by this thing. I can only hope my belief comes to be truth.

I'll be computer-free this weekend, but on Monday I hope to report back on my serology test, and that I can donate blood to people who need it.

Then again, I'm blood type O, so, I'm bullet proof.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 19, 2020, 01:49:35 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 19, 2020, 01:42:36 PM
Really? I find that hard to believe.

Yes, it hit nursing homes and the most vulnerable very hard. But I think there's a LOT more vulnerable folks out there who have been spared exposure to it.

If you look at the list of comorbidities, and you look at the death total of 120K to date, I think it's just patently obvious that there's a HUGE population still out there that have significant vulnerability and that have NOT been infected.

I do think we need to open up--SMARTLY. Masks, distancing, people who can WFH should still do so, people who don't need to go out shouldn't be going out for unnecessary things, people should avoid large gatherings, etc.

This thing isn't over by any stretch.
No more lockdowns.

It’s not over but the lockdowns and forced closure of businesses have to be, otherwise an entire generation of young people will live through an economic depression that rivals the Great Depression- all at the expense to “save” the old.  

I’m not willing to let that happen because Grammy and gramps might get sick and die on the off chance they come into contact with a mild disease that is maybe 4x more deadly than the common flu.

Politicians have shown they aren’t going to do jackshit to help regular people and prevent an economic collapse in the face of forced shutdowns. So until they do, they can suck a fat one. I ain’t shutting shit down and I ain’t stopping with moving on with life as usual.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 19, 2020, 02:07:31 PM
I don't think the people in the states that have significantly reopened, will tolerate another lockdown.  That's precisely why they were the early ones to open, in the first place.  

Wear a mask.  Keep distance from other people.  Don't initiate contact with the elderly and infirm.  That's going to have to be our direction at this point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 19, 2020, 02:08:33 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 19, 2020, 01:05:09 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/19/apple-will-close-some-stores-again-as-covid-19-cases-reappear.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/19/apple-will-close-some-stores-again-as-covid-19-cases-reappear.html)


  • Apple stock dropped on Friday after the company said planned to close some U.S. stores due to rising levels of Covid-19.
  • A total of 11 Apple stores will close in Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Arizona.
  • Customers who have products in these stores for repair will have the weekend to get their devices back.


Seriously?  I was planning on getting a new phone today, lol.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 19, 2020, 02:08:42 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 19, 2020, 01:47:05 PM
I believe that the most vulnerable have already been taken by this thing. I can only hope my belief comes to be truth.

I'll be computer-free this weekend, but on Monday I hope to report back on my serology test, and that I can donate blood to people who need it.

Then again, I'm blood type O, so, I'm bullet proof.
I can say for certain that is not the case.  

Even using the highest estimates from New York City only, there are still around 80%+ of the total population that it hasn't touched yet.   Supposedly herd immunity is reached once about 80% of people have antibodies.  This means things could conceivably get around 3 times worse in New York.  The rest of the country would be starting from almost ground zero.

Back of the napkin math -- could be looking at 1-2 million dead before herd immunity is reached naturally.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 19, 2020, 02:09:17 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 19, 2020, 02:07:31 PM
I don't think the people in the states that have significantly reopened, will tolerate another lockdown.  That's precisely why they were the early ones to open, in the first place. 

Wear a mask.  Keep distance from other people.  Don't initiate contact with the elderly and infirm.  That's going to have to be our direction at this point.
So the foolish states are likely to be foolish again?  Great.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 19, 2020, 02:10:21 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 19, 2020, 02:08:42 PM
Back of the napkin math -- could be looking at 1-2 million dead before herd immunity is reached naturally.
But the emperor has assured us all it will simply go away.  Yes, he doubled down on that idea.  It defies.....everything.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 19, 2020, 02:18:17 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 19, 2020, 02:07:31 PM
I don't think the people in the states that have significantly reopened, will tolerate another lockdown.  That's precisely why they were the early ones to open, in the first place. 

Wear a mask.  Keep distance from other people.  Don't initiate contact with the elderly and infirm.  That's going to have to be our direction at this point.
And wash your hands,how can you expect people to want to move there if YOU don't follow protocol,sheesh
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 19, 2020, 02:25:12 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 19, 2020, 01:47:05 PM
I believe that the most vulnerable have already been taken by this thing. I can only hope my belief comes to be truth.
I highly doubt that. 

How many nursing homes and assisted living facilities exist in this country? What percentage of them haven't seen a single infection? I'd say it's >50%, and probably much higher than that. 

How many people in the, say, 40-60 age range are living with severe comorbidities--diabetes, heart problems, obesity [remember this is America]--and how many of them haven't been touched by COVID? 

There's still a veritable green field of vulnerable folks out there. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 19, 2020, 02:32:07 PM
There's a guy on another site that tracks this weekly:

US Death Total 6/12/20
Nursing Home/Extended Care Deaths: 57,657 (54.6%)
Remaining Population (all ages):           47,913
Total:                                                         105,570
Top 5: Highest State Death Totals:
NY: 24,442
NJ: 12,489
Mass: 7,538
Pennsylvania: 6,162
Illinois: 5,795
 
Total: 56,426 (53.4% of total deaths)


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 19, 2020, 02:38:14 PM
The economy has to be opened up and we'll just have to take precautions and follow procedure.Too many think they're all right so lets sit it out.Of the people I know who have businesses they are all teetering.My favorite watering hole that has been in business since the '70s in all likely hood will not be reopening.They depended on the weekend crowds with live entertainment but with distancing that is no longer going to pay the bills.The Auto Shops haven't called back their mechanics.Hair salon,same thing





Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 19, 2020, 02:45:09 PM
And there are about 1.4 to 1.5M people in nursing homes in the US (https://health.usnews.com/health-news/best-nursing-homes/articles/nursing-home-facts-and-statistics (https://health.usnews.com/health-news/best-nursing-homes/articles/nursing-home-facts-and-statistics)). Another page suggested the CDC, when including other residential assisted living facilities, the number is 2.1M.

I don't know how many people in nursing homes have already contracted and recovered from the virus. 

But that means that only about 2.7-4.1% of the nursing home residents in this country have died from coronavirus at this time, depending on which estimate and how they define "nursing home/extended care". 

Seems like there's plenty more that haven't been exposed. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 19, 2020, 03:55:13 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 19, 2020, 02:08:42 PM
Back of the napkin math -- could be looking at 1-2 million dead before herd immunity is reached naturally.
Lol. I highly doubt that. I think your numbers are off by a lot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 19, 2020, 03:56:31 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 19, 2020, 03:55:13 PM
Lol. I highly doubt that. I think your numbers are off by a lot.
They are probably low, actually. 

I went through the math earlier in this thread. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on June 19, 2020, 03:58:00 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 19, 2020, 01:23:15 PM

Imagine packing in tens of thousands of fans into a stadium.  A single football weekend could cause a spike similar to the protests.
You don't have to imagine it. It already happened. (https://www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/coronavirus-how-a-champions-league-match-contributed-to-italys-covid-19-outbreak/)

If college football happens at all this fall, it won't be with fans in attendance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on June 19, 2020, 04:02:30 PM
Nick Watney withdraws from the PGA tournament this weekend after playing yesterday, has tested positive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 19, 2020, 04:32:55 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 19, 2020, 03:55:13 PM
Lol. I highly doubt that. I think your numbers are off by a lot.
Okay, so right now we have 2.28M official confirmed cases and 121K deaths. That's a case fatality rate of 5.3%. 

There haven't been any great antibody studies that I'm aware of. The best at the time was the NY study. Although it was highly criticized for likely not being representative, it suggested a roughly 10x difference in NY between confirmed cases and actual cases. Although some think that's too high, we'll just take that as gospel.

If that's the case, we have about 22.8M cases, including all asymptomatic and mild cases. That of course brings the actual fatality rate down to about 0.53%, or about 5 times the flu. 22.8M cases is about 7% of the population.

If we assume a rough number of 70% infection rate needed to reach herd immunity (values I've seen are in the 60-80% range but 70% makes the math trivially easy) then you assume we have to have 10x the current infection rate to get there. If the fatality rate holds at 0.53%, you end up with 1.21M deaths from Coronavirus.

Obviously these are all back of the envelope calcuations. We don't know if the true infection rate is 10x that of confirmed cases. We don't know if the true herd immunity rate is 70% or 50% or 90%. This is a new virus we've never seen before.

But that's how you easily extrapolate to 1-2M deaths, and I don't think ANY of those logical leaps is a bridge too far. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 19, 2020, 06:14:01 PM
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/article/infectious-disease-modeling-covid/?fbclid=IwAR2c8yQBO6xQ58gzDzelv1srouCIphQJCr4zYAMXMXcmPixfjJbFQgkwTOc (https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/article/infectious-disease-modeling-covid/?fbclid=IwAR2c8yQBO6xQ58gzDzelv1srouCIphQJCr4zYAMXMXcmPixfjJbFQgkwTOc)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 19, 2020, 06:30:11 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 19, 2020, 01:43:40 PM
That’s real carnage. Apple Stores employ about 116 people on average per store. Times that by 11. That’s almost 1,300 people out of a decent paying job with a great company to work for. All of this has a chain reaction. Those 1,300 people are going to struggle to be able to pay their rent, bills, credit cards, car payments- have less disposable income to spend at other businesses. It’s a vicious cycle.
adding 1,300 folks to the nationwide unemployment figure is even going to move the needle?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 19, 2020, 06:35:25 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 19, 2020, 01:15:47 PM
Well, we have ten weeks left more or less, and I don't see the COVID thing getting better, I see it getting worse.  As CFB teams test their players daily, or close to it, it seems likely to me that one or more will be positive after each test.  Then you have infections arising from exposure to that player in addition to players interacting with other students.  I don't see a way to put a lid on this short of stopping CFB.  We could see some teams ravaged by the virus, not necessarily players being all that symptomatic, but infected and ineligible for two weeks plus.

Many teams might see 20 players positive by September.  Is that overly pessimistic?  College life is ideal for viral spread.  The rest of us can minimize chances of being infected, but college students on campus?  Not so much, and not football players.
even if 40 players test positive, but show no symptoms and seem healthy.  Is that enough reason to shut down a multi billion dollar enterprise?

if 5 players are hospitalized and two players die, then I think it becomes serious
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 19, 2020, 06:43:34 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 19, 2020, 06:14:01 PM
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/article/infectious-disease-modeling-covid/?fbclid=IwAR2c8yQBO6xQ58gzDzelv1srouCIphQJCr4zYAMXMXcmPixfjJbFQgkwTOc (https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/article/infectious-disease-modeling-covid/?fbclid=IwAR2c8yQBO6xQ58gzDzelv1srouCIphQJCr4zYAMXMXcmPixfjJbFQgkwTOc)
Good stuff. A lot of people could learn from what she says about models. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 19, 2020, 07:08:31 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 19, 2020, 10:17:27 AM
I'm leaning to thinking CFB won't happen this year, or it may start up and get shut down.
I'm leaning that way too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 19, 2020, 07:11:56 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 19, 2020, 07:08:31 PM
I'm leaning that way too.
Sadly, I think it is heading that way. At first I thought there was no chance, but then cases started dropping like crazy. I got my hopes up. This resurgence of the virus is going to be bad.  The US will never stand for another shutdown. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 19, 2020, 07:13:22 PM
Everyone wants this thing to be over...

But as we crest 30K+ daily cases for the first time since May 1, maybe we're going to start to see that this thing ain't freakin' over. 

All I hope is that people see it and start to take it seriously, instead of thinking we're "back to normal". Normal doesn't exist until we get a vaccine or we reach herd immunity, and I seriously hope it's the former. The new normal is masks, distancing, and being vigilant. 

We can start to reopen, but we're not going back to normal. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 19, 2020, 07:13:33 PM
Gonna be a lot more old and brown people dying then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 19, 2020, 07:14:21 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 19, 2020, 07:13:22 PM

 and being vigilant.

Not a strength of the masses.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 19, 2020, 07:19:39 PM
We have a problem with attention span in this country. 

People were "over it" regarding lockdowns about 6-8 weeks ago, probably only about 4 weeks into actual lockdowns. So they demanded reopening and we got reopening.

Then people were "over it" regarding masks and distancing shortly after reopening, because the numbers didn't show craziness yet, so they stopped worrying about masks and distancing. 

Now the collective effect of all that is resulting in a bunch of places with case rates exploding, because you roll all that change out over 2-4 weeks and it's been silently building, and now it shows up like a tsunami. 

Sometimes I wish humanity wasn't so predictable. It's annoying to say "here's what's going to happen" and then rarely if ever be surprised.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 19, 2020, 07:22:54 PM
I see nothing that makes me think that my fellow citizens while be vigilant, will wear masks when in public, and will social distance.

The people who have been lined up all week for the POTUS rally here tomorrow had a mask-burning activity today to show . . .  something.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 19, 2020, 08:59:17 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 19, 2020, 07:22:54 PM


The people who have been lined up all week for the POTUS rally here tomorrow had a mask-burning activity today to show . . .  something.
I’m assuming masks will be required at the rally, right?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 19, 2020, 10:03:02 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 19, 2020, 08:59:17 PM
I’m assuming masks will be required at the rally, right?
not required but available Oklahoma is in phase 3 at least that my understanding
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 19, 2020, 10:11:39 PM
I'm over it.  Never was really into it, but I'm in fly over country.  If it wasn't for meat packing... wouldn't have been much of a thing in this area.

when the largest employer in the area tells folks they have to  work their shift although they have all the symptoms........... there's gonna be a hot spot
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 19, 2020, 10:38:08 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 19, 2020, 08:59:17 PM
I’m assuming masks will be required at the rally, right?
Passed out but not required.
The State Supreme Court ruled today that people could not be required to wear them.
The POTUS effectively discourages their wear.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 19, 2020, 10:44:13 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 19, 2020, 10:38:08 PM

The State Supreme Court ruled today that people could not be required to wear them.
seems odd
can a private business require it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 19, 2020, 10:49:10 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 19, 2020, 10:44:13 PM
seems odd
can a private business require it?
It does seem odd.
Costco requires it and enforces it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 19, 2020, 10:55:15 PM
so does the Menard's home improvement place here

it's the only place in the area
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 19, 2020, 11:35:02 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 19, 2020, 10:38:08 PM
Passed out but not required.
The State Supreme Court ruled today that people could not be required to wear them.
The POTUS effectively discourages their wear.
I have this ridiculous hope that N95 masks would be super effective and all that is required at a football game. 
I guess that foolish notion is out the window. :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 20, 2020, 01:11:47 AM
There's a portion of me that has thought this particular POTUS was going to kill the Republican Party.

I never thought that was going to be a literal statement. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 06:01:15 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 20, 2020, 01:11:47 AM
There's a portion of me that has thought this particular POTUS was going to kill the Republican Party.

I never thought that was going to be a literal statement.
It’s an interesting question. Death is bad no matter what- but of those who have Died so far it’s curious to wonder how many of them are of which political affiliation?  A lot of demographics involved. For example most of those who have died so far can be attributed to larger metropolitan areas which tend to be more left. But, The average age of these deaths tends to be much higher which tends to lean right. The current spike in cases, not necessarily deaths, appears to be more towards southern states which tend to lean right. However in Florida the average age of the person with new cases is around 37 years old from what I heard yesterday which tends to be a demographic that leans left.

if you’re talking about the future of the party when you say “kill the republican party “- then I think you’re just way off base. I think current events may be driving conservative thought to be way more entrenched. To understand that you have to have the ability to not pay attention to the people with the microphones which are the media and the elites which tend to lean heavily to the left. Regardless of our dork in the White House, approval of Congress is at an all time low of 24%.

Contrary to the narrative we are being fed 24/7, the virus has no political preference- You can get it if you are one of the “millions” of people protesting racial inequality, or you can get it if you’re one of the people at a political rally.

Desantis said this very well yesterday when asked a related question by a reporter. He basically said that it’s not as political as you might think with respect to wearing masks and venturing out. He pointed out that people have been watching their televisions and for weeks now seeing thousands and thousands of protesters in small tight spaces often holding hands or arm in arm, often yelling and screaming, with no reference to The risk of spreading the virus whatsoever. He said that gives them a false sense of “hey maybe were in the next phase and we can go ahead”.  so now when they hear those same voices which were previously silent regarding thousands and thousands and thousands of protesters across the country, getting clearly worked up over a 20,000 person event, they’re just not paying attention because there is a credibility problem there.

I truly believe there’s something to what he said and that is not a political statement at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 07:49:12 AM
https://247sports.com/college/georgia/Article/Clemson-football-positive-coronavirus-tests-number-148354388/?fbclid=IwAR0wyEWho4THHrqIPEGzFJDdORpAyWQRPQoKSo9uuwTnNB0m3b89zAjHV98 (https://247sports.com/college/georgia/Article/Clemson-football-positive-coronavirus-tests-number-148354388/?fbclid=IwAR0wyEWho4THHrqIPEGzFJDdORpAyWQRPQoKSo9uuwTnNB0m3b89zAjHV98)

Clemson reporting 23 players tested positive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 20, 2020, 08:14:10 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 07:49:12 AM
https://247sports.com/college/georgia/Article/Clemson-football-positive-coronavirus-tests-number-148354388/?fbclid=IwAR0wyEWho4THHrqIPEGzFJDdORpAyWQRPQoKSo9uuwTnNB0m3b89zAjHV98 (https://247sports.com/college/georgia/Article/Clemson-football-positive-coronavirus-tests-number-148354388/?fbclid=IwAR0wyEWho4THHrqIPEGzFJDdORpAyWQRPQoKSo9uuwTnNB0m3b89zAjHV98)

Clemson reporting 23 players tested positive.

They musta stolen our idea for the COVID parties.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 08:19:27 AM
I do not see how this is likely to work, CFB, under anything remotely resembling normalcy.  Some of those infected may have longer term impacts to their breathing which could render them unable to play for years, is ever.  Nobody who tests positive on Friday will play on Saturday, staff included.  Imagine some HC gets sick, perhaps very sick.  What are the odds that happens?  Imagine Nick Saban catches it and is hospitalized?

How can this work?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 20, 2020, 09:47:20 AM
this is why Nick has an assistant coach

coaches get sick, they get cancer, they have heart issues

if the players and coaches are not involved with football activities including games are they safer?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 09:59:38 AM
It's not a matter of player safety in this instance.  It's a matter of teams having a near full retinue in order to compete.

The chance that a head coach gets COVID and has to sit out 2-3 weeks is nearly 100%.  The chance that some teams will experience 20-30 players lost is nearly 100%.  Anyone who tests positive will NOT be able to play for 3 weeks or more.

Players will likely bring it in from campus life, their GFs, etc.  You can't isolate them as you could the pros.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 20, 2020, 10:09:15 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 06:01:15 AM
if you’re talking about the future of the party when you say “kill the republican party “- then I think you’re just way off base. 
I hope it came across that I was making a joke... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 20, 2020, 10:12:29 AM
For more than two months in Iowa, the most critical COVID-19 figures — deaths and hospitalizations — have been steadily getting lower, with little interruption.

As of Friday afternoon, according to state public health data compiled by the Des Moines Bureau:

• The seven-day average of new deaths (5.4) was at its lowest since April 25. That was nine weeks ago, and just a month after the first virus-related death was recorded in Iowa. That figured peaked on May 25 at 15.0, and has been falling steadily in the three-plus weeks since.

• The seven-day average of Iowans hospitalized by the virus (193.4) was at its lowest since April 21. That figured peaked on May 11 at 407.7, and has been falling steadily in the five-plus weeks since.

• And the seven-day average of Iowans recently admitted to the hospital for virus-related symptoms (19.4) was as low as it had been since April 17, which was just one week into the state publishing that data. That figure peaked on May 5 at 41.1, and has been falling steadily in the six-plus weeks since.


How does Iowa compare nationally? Its 22 deaths per 100,000 residents is 20th in the nation, according to multiple sites that track the data nationally.

Positive case numbers also, generally, have been trending downward statewide. Certain areas have seen spikes — Buena Vista and Story counties are two recent examples, due in part to outbreaks at a meat packing plant in the former and possibly on the Iowa State University campus in the latter. But while it has been a little more sporadic along the way, the statewide, seven-day average of new cases has been falling steadily since peaking at 547.9 on May 4.


While black and Latino Iowans have been burdened with an outsized share of coronavirus cases, the share of virus-related deaths have been more in line with their populations.

Among Iowa’s population, 6% are Latino and 4% are black. And yet a whopping 27% of cases have been confirmed in the state’s Latino population, and 10% among black Iowans. Those numbers, in part, are because those populations are more likely to work hourly wage, at-risk jobs, like those in meat-packing plants, in nursing homes, and at grocery stores and other essential businesses.

However, among Iowans who have died of virus-related causes, 7% have been Latino and 5% have been black.


As of Friday, 7 of 10 Iowans who died of virus-related causes had pre-existing conditions, according to state public health data, while only 6% of Iowans who died of virus-related causes were confirmed to have no previous conditions.

For the remaining 24%, it had not yet been determined whether the individual had a previous condition.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 10:15:03 AM
https://www.modernhealthcare.com/technology/accuracy-covid-19-tests-still-largely-unknown (https://www.modernhealthcare.com/technology/accuracy-covid-19-tests-still-largely-unknown)

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/06/how-accurate-are-covid-19-tests.html (https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/06/how-accurate-are-covid-19-tests.html)

Imagine the test is 95% correct in not giving false positives.  On a college football team, that would mean 4 or 5 false positives as a result.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 20, 2020, 10:36:01 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 20, 2020, 01:11:47 AM
There's a portion of me that has thought this particular POTUS was going to kill the Republican Party.

I never thought that was going to be a literal statement.
It's tough to view this rally as anything but a big FU to everyone who has sacrificed over the past few months
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 20, 2020, 10:40:06 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 10:15:03 AM
https://www.modernhealthcare.com/technology/accuracy-covid-19-tests-still-largely-unknown (https://www.modernhealthcare.com/technology/accuracy-covid-19-tests-still-largely-unknown)

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/06/how-accurate-are-covid-19-tests.html (https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/06/how-accurate-are-covid-19-tests.html)

Imagine the test is 95% correct in not giving false positives.  On a college football team, that would mean 4 or 5 false positives as a result.

I think false positives for these tests are a lot smaller percentage problem than false negatives. I.e. there are a number of issues that might cause someone with COVID to get a negative result, but if you get a positive result, you pretty much have COVID. 

I've been trying to find specificity numbers via the googles, and finding all sorts of stories about the false negative problems, but can't really get a good read on false positives. I don't think that's a big issue.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 20, 2020, 11:15:02 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 06:01:15 AM

Contrary to the narrative we are being fed 24/7, the virus has no political preference- You can get it if you are one of the “millions” of people protesting racial inequality, or you can get it if you’re one of the people at a political rally.

I truly believe there’s something to what he said and that is not a political statement at all.
I like your sentiment here, but just as the virus lacks political preference, it also doesn't recognize the lines on the map.  So yes, it is political, as each state leans one way or the other.  This type of problem needs national leadership and action - a pandemic is probably the #1 thing you can't just tout "states rights!" over, no matter how much that phrase turns you on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 20, 2020, 11:31:22 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 20, 2020, 10:09:15 AM
I hope it came across that I was making a joke...
Yes.

To "un-joke" it, just replace "kill" with "destroy."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 11:37:54 AM
I think Federal guidance is needed, but I also think states and counties and cities should be able to approach this accordingly.  Montana might not need the same approach as Arizona.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on June 20, 2020, 12:09:53 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 11:37:54 AM
I think Federal guidance is needed, but I also think states and counties and cities should be able to approach this accordingly.  Montana might not need the same approach as Arizona.
I would agree if the states were basing it on their unique health situations, rather than their unique political ones
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 20, 2020, 12:14:04 PM
If we are to have self-government, then we have politics.  The problem isn't our "political system."  The problem is us.  We elect these slack-jawed jackanapes to represent us and lead us.  They tell us blatant falsehoods and we are either too stupid to see the lies or we see the lies and elect them anyway because after all both sides lie and we'd rather have "our" liar in power than "their" liar.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 12:20:54 PM
Quote from: ELA on June 20, 2020, 12:09:53 PM
I would agree if the states were basing it on their unique health situations, rather than their unique political ones

I think it is facile to view one or the other political parties and views as relevant here.  California is seeing a major surge.  NY and NJ were the worst states in the Union (now getting better).  I think it has more to do with who got hit earlier versus now.

The five worst states for deaths per capita are NY, NJ, MA, CT, and RI.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on June 20, 2020, 12:22:34 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 12:20:54 PM
I think it is facile to view one or the other political parties and views as relevant here.  California is seeing a major surge.  NY and NJ were the worst states in the Union (now getting better).  I think it has more to do with who got hit earlier versus now.

The five worst states for deaths per capita are NY, NJ, MA, CT, and RI.


I just mean that the state by state decisions as how to shut down and when to open up and how have more to do with political pressures than actual data.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 12:24:29 PM
And I'd say that is inherent and universal.  Government should be somewhat responsive to its citizenry.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on June 20, 2020, 12:32:28 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 12:24:29 PM
And I'd say that is inherent and universal.  Government should be somewhat responsive to its citizenry.
Somewhat?  Sure.  In certain situations.  Not in matters of public health crises.  You aren't an island
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 12:56:48 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on June 20, 2020, 10:36:01 AM
It's tough to view this rally as anything but a big FU to everyone who has sacrificed over the past few months
As hard as I try to understand other opinions I just can’t understand this one.

Every day for weeks now- we have watched thousands of people gathering in extremely close proximity, arm in arm, holding hands, yelling, screaming. You don’t think those people were a big FU?

as far as POTUS- this has always been his thing. He has never, nor will ever get good press coverage.  His winning formula has been- go right to the people.  What- do you think he should just hide in his basement and take pre-scripted softball questions from a the one media outlet that likes him? He doesn’t have the benefit of 5 of the 6 large media outlet working to get him elected like his opponent does- in fact obviously the opposite. 

Hell- I can’t stand him but that is obvious - his only avenue to win is these rally’s.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 20, 2020, 12:57:41 PM
What percent of "representatives" don't merely vouch for whoever fills their wallets?  10?  5?

Whoever said money is the root of all evil should've signed the Declaration of Independence.  Money is the reason we have skewed news sources.  Money is the reason our congress is garbage.  Money is the reason our systems are broken.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 20, 2020, 12:59:53 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 12:56:48 PM
Hell- I can’t stand him but that is obvious - his only avenue to win is these rally’s. 
Gatherings of people who are already voting for him?  You think a lot of independent moderates are risking their health to attend Trump's rallies?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 01:00:06 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 20, 2020, 12:57:41 PM
What percent of "representatives" don't merely vouch for whoever fills their wallets?  10?  5?

Whoever said money is the root of all evil should've signed the Declaration of Independence.  Money is the reason we have skewed news sources.  Money is the reason our congress is garbage.  Money is the reason our systems are broken.
True
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 01:00:30 PM
If I had more confidence that "we" understood this public health crisis better, I would agree.  I don't think we do, a lot of major unknowns remain, a lot of guesswork.

Sweden trails Belgium, UK, Spain, and Italy in deaths per capita at 500 per million.  The US is at 367.  France is at 454.  Maybe their approach was not so horrific after all?  I don't know.  

I see states like NY now reporting few new cases a day, relatively, and wonder if everyone will experience perhaps the same "area under the curve" no matter what they do, aside from some Asian countries.





Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 01:01:27 PM
The LOVE of money is said to be the root of all evil.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 01:01:59 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 20, 2020, 12:59:53 PM
Gatherings of people who are already voting for him?  You think a lot of independent moderates are risking their health to attend Trump's rallies? 
Yes.  It’s like a pep rally.  Getting his base fired up. Getting them to believe what they see and here in person versus what they read. 

we may not like it- but you have to admit it has been effective for him 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 20, 2020, 01:06:50 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 20, 2020, 12:14:04 PM
If we are to have self-government, then we have politics.  The problem isn't our "political system."  The problem is us.  We elect these slack-jawed jackanapes to represent us and lead us.  They tell us blatant falsehoods and we are either too stupid to see the lies or we see the lies and elect them anyway because after all both sides lie and we'd rather have "our" liar in power than "their" liar.
I don't think the problem is entirely "US"decades ago corrupt so called statesmen  should never have left Corporate 1% or so send Lobbyists into congressional halls.Rules,Laws,tax structures,regulations were changed wholesale and not for the working class or the bettermant of the Country.The treasurey at one time had balance and that ship sailed so long ago
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 20, 2020, 01:07:00 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 12:56:48 PM
As hard as I try to understand other opinions I just can’t understand this one.

Every day for weeks now- we have watched thousands of people gathering in extremely close proximity, arm in arm, holding hands, yelling, screaming. You don’t think those people were a big FU?

as far as POTUS- this has always been his thing. He has never, nor will ever get good press coverage.  His winning formula has been- go right to the people.  What- do you think he should just hide in his basement and take pre-scripted softball questions from a the one media outlet that likes him? He doesn’t have the benefit of 5 of the 6 large media outlet working to get him elected like his opponent does- in fact obviously the opposite.

Hell- I can’t stand him but that is obvious - his only avenue to win is these rally’s. 
He's the president and this rally goes against all the guidelines his government has recommended. It's a blatant middle finger to everyone who has died, gotten sick, lost a job, gone months without seeing people, etc. It's despicable. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 01:12:14 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on June 20, 2020, 01:07:00 PM
He's the president and this rally goes against all the guidelines his government has recommended. It's a blatant middle finger to everyone who has died, gotten sick, lost a job, gone months without seeing people, etc. It's despicable.
No.  It doesn’t. Oklahoma is in phase 3. 
i think the million or so people who tried to get tickets feel the lawlessness of the protests, the innocent police who have lost their lives, the innocent bystanders who have been injured, the countless small business owners who have lost everything to rioting and looting, the egging on of all this by most media, and their blatant and obvious hypocrisy- is beyond despicable. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 01:12:55 PM
Most of us agree that a rally is "ill advised" from a public health standpoint.  So were the protests.  So are folks completely flouting common sense in other aspects of life.  Some people call the COVID thing a "hoax" (without really defining what they mean).  I guess they think it "no worse than flu", or something.

One aspect of freedom is that it is paired with responsibility.  The less of the latter we have collectively, the less of the former will will have.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 01:14:37 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on June 20, 2020, 01:07:00 PM
He's the president and this rally goes against all the guidelines his government has recommended. It's a blatant middle finger to everyone who has died, gotten sick, lost a job, gone months without seeing people, etc. It's despicable.
This is how the protesters made me feel. A big disposable middle finger
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 20, 2020, 01:14:59 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 01:01:59 PM
Yes.  It’s like a pep rally.  Getting his base fired up. Getting them to believe what they see and here in person versus what they read.

we may not like it- but you have to admit it has been effective for him
What evidence is there to admit that?  
His nickname should be "double down" - and sure, that's solidifying his ever-shrinking base.  Cool.  

Perhaps predictably, I view these rallies the opposite - they're basically public masturbatory sessions.  So often, Trump says something to the media and a flurry of camera clicks denotes he 'done fucked up again' by saying something asinine.  No such issue at a rally!  
And you can't even say it's for a lead-up to the election, he's been doing this rallies since day 1 in office.  They're solely to make him feel good about himself, as if he's not an incompetent, adolescent with power.  He's a 12 year old driving a Ferrari and these rallies act like a friend giving him a phone book to sit on.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 20, 2020, 01:16:08 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 01:14:37 PM
This is how the protesters made me feel. A big disposable middle finger
They were protesting something in the moment and important to them.  Trump's rallies may be the latter to his blind followers, but they exist for the sole purpose of giving Trump an erection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 20, 2020, 01:17:03 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 01:12:55 PM
 Some people call the COVID thing a "hoax" (without really defining what they mean).  I guess they think it "no worse than flu", or something.

And these people are going to Trump's rally.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 01:18:44 PM
I'm hard pressed to criticize his political instincts relative to what has worked for him in the past.  I thought he was running to increase his name recognition and would drop out "soon".  Maybe this is all an ego trip, I could believe that, but it has been effective at least in 2016.   Will it be effective in 2020?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 01:20:35 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 20, 2020, 01:14:59 PM
What evidence is there to admit that? 
His nickname should be "double down" - and sure, that's solidifying his ever-shrinking base.  Cool. 

Perhaps predictably, I view these rallies the opposite - they're basically public masturbatory sessions.  So often, Trump says something to the media and a flurry of camera clicks denotes he 'done fucked up again' by saying something asinine.  No such issue at a rally! 
And you can't even say it's for a lead-up to the election, he's been doing this rallies since day 1 in office.  They're solely to make him feel good about himself, as if he's not an incompetent, adolescent with power.  He's a 12 year old driving a Ferrari and these rallies act like a friend giving him a phone book to sit on.


Your so lost in your own fantasy world I won’t bother to point out everything you got wrong here  Your hatred has taken the human out of you
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 20, 2020, 01:21:14 PM
Only Trump would harp on an election being rigged and then win it.  This is all so embarrassing.  How did we get here?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 01:21:39 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 20, 2020, 01:17:03 PM
And these people are going to Trump's rally.
More fake news.  Nobody besides the morons peddling it believe it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 20, 2020, 01:22:17 PM
Quote from: ELA on June 20, 2020, 12:22:34 PM
I just mean that the state by state decisions as how to shut down and when to open up and how have more to do with political pressures than actual data.
Yes but that's not as partisan as you'd think. California is reopening based on the same political pressures as red states-people are sick and tired of lockdown. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 20, 2020, 01:22:22 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 01:20:35 PM
Your so lost in your own fantasy world I won’t bother to point out everything you got wrong here  Your hatred has taken the human out of you
You could just focus on the first line, but you won't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 01:22:35 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 20, 2020, 01:21:14 PM
Only Trump would harp on an election being rigged and then win it.  This is all so embarrassing.  How did we get here?
Only his opponent Would whine incessantly that he won’t leave office after she beats him, and then refused to except your defeat for four years. You can’t make this shit up
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 20, 2020, 01:23:07 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 01:21:39 PM
More fake news.  Nobody besides the morons peddling it believe it
How dare you call them morons!  There's good people on both sides!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 01:23:12 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 20, 2020, 01:22:22 PM
You could just focus on the first line, but you won't.
It’s all going to be ok dude.  Relax 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 01:23:33 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 20, 2020, 01:23:07 PM
How dare you call them morons!  There's good people on both sides!
Fake news. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 20, 2020, 01:24:29 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 01:22:35 PM
Only his opponent Would whine incessantly that he won’t leave office after she beats him, and then refused to except your defeat for four years. You can’t make this shit up
Huh?
"leave office" and "she" are in your sentence.  I think you mistyped something.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 20, 2020, 01:24:42 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 01:23:12 PM
It’s all going to be ok dude.  Relax
See?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 01:27:38 PM
Back on topic, what is the best plausible scenario for having CFB?  We're ten weeks out.  I can see a lot of very bad scenarios, not many good ones.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 20, 2020, 01:35:05 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 01:12:14 PM
No.  It doesn’t. Oklahoma is in phase 3.
i think the million or so people who tried to get tickets feel the lawlessness of the protests, the innocent police who have lost their lives, the innocent bystanders who have been injured, the countless small business owners who have lost everything to rioting and looting, the egging on of all this by most media, and their blatant and obvious hypocrisy- is beyond despicable.
It does.  From the CDC website (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/prevention.html):

- Avoid close contact - This rally is indoors and as far as I can tell will not practice social distancing at all - a packed house of over 19000 people are expected.
- Cover your mouth and nose with a cloth face cover when around others - Attendees are not required to wear a mask

This is pretty much everything they've been saying not to do for months.  What is right for you but not for them.  It's especially frustrating to me because while everyone's life has been turned upside down, we were moving towards some semblance of normalcy, which included masks and social distancing.  Telling people to ignore these things now, not based on some scientific merit but just because Trump feels down and wants a big rally for himself is the height of incompetence. The media isn't going after him enough for this crap, probably based in some asinine hope to be "balanced" instead of "truthful."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 01:40:21 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on June 20, 2020, 01:35:05 PM
It does.  From the CDC website (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/prevention.html):

- Avoid close contact - This rally is indoors and as far as I can tell will not practice social distancing at all - a packed house of over 19000 people are expected.
- Cover your mouth and nose with a cloth face cover when around others - Attendees are not required to wear a mask

This is pretty much everything they've been saying not to do for months.  What is right for you but not for them.  It's especially frustrating to me because while everyone's life has been turned upside down, we were moving towards some semblance of normalcy, which included masks and social distancing.  Telling people to ignore these things now, not based on some scientific merit but just because Trump feels down and wants a big rally for himself is the height of incompetence. The media isn't going after him enough for this crap, probably based in some asinine hope to be "balanced" instead of "truthful."
And yet I just witnessed thousands and thousands of people breaking those rules- many while committing crimes.  But I understand why your ok with that.  🤔
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 20, 2020, 01:45:46 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 01:40:21 PM
And yet I just witnessed thousands and thousands of people breaking those rules- many while committing crimes.  But I understand why your ok with that.  🤔
You will never find me holding some dude down the street to the same standard as the President of the United States.  Also, the protests, especially here in Columbus, had plenty of mask wearing and social distancing, which meant they were better organized than this rally.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 20, 2020, 01:49:41 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 01:01:27 PM
The LOVE of money is said to be the root of all evil.
Yeah I don’t know. Having money gives you options, and allows you to have nice things and take care of the people you love. 

Having money is better than not having money. The only thing I’d say about money is that it makes you more of what you already are. If you’re a degenerate but you don’t have the means to gamble away a fortune or get into hard drugs or buy endless whores and be a sex fiend, then it’s probably good if you don’t have a lot of money. But you’re still that person to some degree- you just can’t indulge yourself because you don’t have the means. And if you did have the means you’d probably wind up like Charlie Sheen or something. 


Money is like anything. It’s just a tool. It’s the person wielding the tool that matters. A hammer can build a home. Or it can kill someone. It’s all about the person using it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on June 20, 2020, 02:11:58 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 20, 2020, 01:22:17 PM
Yes but that's not as partisan as you'd think. California is reopening based on the same political pressures as red states-people are sick and tired of lockdown.
I agree it's not a red state-blue state thing.

Here in PA the governor announced a red-yellow-green plan, with the hope for Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) to be yellow by now, and maybe, although far from certainly go green if things looked good by mid-summer; but more rural counties being accelerated.

Made sense.

People got pissed, impeachment was threatened.  Amazingly we went yellow in like two weeks and were green by the first weekend in June.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on June 20, 2020, 02:12:50 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 20, 2020, 01:49:41 PM
Yeah I don’t know. Having money gives you options, and allows you to have nice things and take care of the people you love.

Having money is better than not having money. The only thing I’d say about money is that it makes you more of what you already are. If you’re a degenerate but you don’t have the means to gamble away a fortune or get into hard drugs or buy endless whores and be a sex fiend, then it’s probably good if you don’t have a lot of money. But you’re still that person to some degree- you just can’t indulge yourself because you don’t have the means. And if you did have the means you’d probably wind up like Charlie Sheen or something.


Money is like anything. It’s just a tool. It’s the person wielding the tool that matters. A hammer can build a home. Or it can kill someone. It’s all about the person using it.

Agreed.

Power, and the pursuit of power, is the root of all evil.  Money is a tool to acquire and hold power.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on June 20, 2020, 02:16:35 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 01:27:38 PM
Back on topic, what is the best plausible scenario for having CFB?  We're ten weeks out.  I can see a lot of very bad scenarios, not many good ones.
I think the best scenario and the most plausible scenario for football are miles apart right now.

Not sure how we are trying to figure out how to fit an MLB season in that wraps up by Halloween, because of the dangers of extending beyond that; while even discussing football.

Maybe college football does something similar.  A 7-8 game regular season with conference/divisional games only?  Also makes it easier to set rules, because you are trying to organize a smaller number of schools, that already work together, in a somewhat (although less so than before) geographical situation, in terms of weather, health trends and politics.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 20, 2020, 02:20:56 PM
Quote from: ELA on June 20, 2020, 02:11:58 PM
I agree it's not a red state-blue state thing.

Here in PA the governor announced a red-yellow-green plan, with the hope for Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) to be yellow by now, and maybe, although far from certainly go green if things looked good by mid-summer; but more rural counties being accelerated.

Made sense.

People got pissed, impeachment was threatened.  Amazingly we went yellow in like two weeks and were green by the first weekend in June.
It’s just a natural reaction. You can’t force people to stay in there homes and not be able to go out or to work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 20, 2020, 02:21:59 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 20, 2020, 01:49:41 PM
Yeah I don’t know. Having money gives you options, and allows you to have nice things and take care of the people you love.

Having money is better than not having money. The only thing I’d say about money is that it makes you more of what you already are. If you’re a degenerate but you don’t have the means to gamble away a fortune or get into hard drugs or buy endless whores and be a sex fiend, then it’s probably good if you don’t have a lot of money. But you’re still that person to some degree- you just can’t indulge yourself because you don’t have the means. And if you did have the means you’d probably wind up like Charlie Sheen or something.


Money is like anything. It’s just a tool. It’s the person wielding the tool that matters. A hammer can build a home. Or it can kill someone. It’s all about the person using it.

Studies say money makes your life better, only up to $75-80,000/year.  Beyond that, it plateaus, and you have Biggie's "Mo Money, Mo Problems."  

So these billionaires avoiding taxes are just squirrels hiding nuts, only to lose 80% of them.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 20, 2020, 02:23:09 PM
Every sports plan gets derailed when the inevitable happens and a team has a cluster of cases.  Sports should just forget about it until next year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on June 20, 2020, 02:27:32 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 20, 2020, 02:20:56 PM
It’s just a natural reaction. You can’t force people to stay in there homes and not be able to go out or to work.
Then just wear a damn mask
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 02:56:19 PM
My definition of "wealthy" is a person who doesn't need any income.  They can do whatever they want realistically for the rest of their life with zero percent income.  And, if they did that they would pay no income taxes.

Many/most wealthy folks have their money mostly tied up in assets, say they started some company or whatever.  If they don't sell any part of that company, they have no income (unless it pays a dividend, and that is taxed favorably).  A wealthy person doesn't need to "hide" his money, he just needs to avoid having a bunch of income, and even if he does, he keeps most of it anyway, and still has his wealthy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on June 20, 2020, 02:58:41 PM
My wife and I  went out to eat for the first time since March last night.  It was an open air structure that was sparsely crowded.  Perfect, right?  Or at least as good as we could hope for.

Well, some old geyser who knows my wife spotted her and came to our table and gave her a hug touching his cheek to hers.  I just sat there shaking my head.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 03:04:08 PM
If we'd all wear a mask when we're out and about, we might cut R naught below unity to drive this thing away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 20, 2020, 03:08:00 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 01:40:21 PM
And yet I just witnessed thousands and thousands of people breaking those rules- many while committing crimes.  But I understand why your ok with that.  🤔
First 5 google image search results for "George Floyd protests" (first five CFB51 would accept for posting, anyway).

Obviously not 100% mask coverage. But far above 50%. I'd guess above 80%.

Do you think the rally tonight will resemble these pictures regarding mask usage?


[img width=297.429 height=333]https://i.imgur.com/1ZRZWOL.jpg[/img]

[img width=297.429 height=333]https://i.imgur.com/CY1Pygo.png[/img]

[img width=297.429 height=334]https://i.imgur.com/g1wWxeE.jpg[/img]

[img width=297.429 height=333]https://i.imgur.com/ic4yFMX.jpg[/img]


[img width=297.429 height=320]https://i.imgur.com/WFy48vS.png[/img]
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 20, 2020, 03:11:50 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 20, 2020, 12:57:41 PM
What percent of "representatives" don't merely vouch for whoever fills their wallets?  10?  5?

Whoever said money is the root of all evil should've signed the Declaration of Independence.  Money is the reason we have skewed news sources.  Money is the reason our congress is garbage.  Money is the reason our systems are broken.
Actually, the original quote is: "love of money is the root of all evil."

1 Timothy 6:10 King James Version (KJV): "For the love of money is the root of all evil: which while some coveted after, they have erred from the faith, and pierced themselves through with many sorrows."

And there's this, from another religious tradition: "What is evil? Killing is evil, lying is evil, slandering is evil, abuse is evil, gossip is evil: envy is evil, hatred is evil, to cling to false doctrine is evil; all these things are evil. And what is the root of evil? Desire is the root of evil, illusion is the root of evil." Gautama Siddhartha, the founder of Buddhism.

If you want to do away with money, what would you recommend we use to replace it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on June 20, 2020, 03:19:10 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 20, 2020, 02:21:59 PM
Studies say money makes your life better, only up to $75-80,000/year.  Beyond that, it plateaus, and you have Biggie's "Mo Money, Mo Problems." 

So these billionaires avoiding taxes are just squirrels hiding nuts, only to lose 80% of them. 
75-80k? My happiness would plateau well beyond 75-80k.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on June 20, 2020, 03:19:22 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on June 20, 2020, 02:58:41 PM
My wife and I  went out to eat for the first time since March last night.  It was an open air structure that was sparsely crowded.  Perfect, right?  Or at least as good as we could hope for.

Well, some old geyser who knows my wife spotted her and came to our table and gave her a hug touching his cheek to hers.  I just sat there shaking my head.
Same.  The rules were whenever you aren't at your table, mask.  People came in wearing masks, and generally left wearing masks.  Restrooms trips?  Nope
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 20, 2020, 03:23:29 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 20, 2020, 03:11:50 PM
If you want to do away with money, what would you recommend we use to replace it?
Beef Ribs
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 03:41:03 PM
The Fed is near us and has a pretty interesting museum inside.  They have exhibits of what was used as money in other cultures.

Incidentally, it's not as if our System was somehow magically broken a few decades ago.  It has always been corrupt and pernicious, even back in the day.  The amount of money involved today is far greater and the size and scope of government is far greater.

A person living in say 1880 could live his entire life with no more interaction with Federal government than the Post Office and voting.  It simply was not a relevant factor for them.

My Dad was born in 1917 in their house and there was no official record of his existence until he joined the army in 1942.  He changed his name, by just changing it.  He didn't like his initials.  I imagine he got counted in a census, but just as a child living there.

He was a twin, and the first photo of him shows him wearing leg braces, he didn't know why, he may have had mild polio.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 03:48:49 PM
Georgia just spiked on new cases, 1800.  The numbers had been running round 700 and level until ten days ago when they started up to near 900.  This is a real notable spike.  The state started to reopen April 23, but actual reopening took 2-3 weeks to happen.

If this continues well above a thousand, we're in trouble here I'd opine.  And yes, hospitalizations are drifting up but not nearly that fast.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 20, 2020, 03:48:58 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 12:56:48 PM
As hard as I try to understand other opinions I just can’t understand this one.

Every day for weeks now- we have watched thousands of people gathering in extremely close proximity, arm in arm, holding hands, yelling, screaming. You don’t think those people were a big FU?

as far as POTUS- this has always been his thing. He has never, nor will ever get good press coverage.  His winning formula has been- go right to the people.  What- do you think he should just hide in his basement and take pre-scripted softball questions from a the one media outlet that likes him? He doesn’t have the benefit of 5 of the 6 large media outlet working to get him elected like his opponent does- in fact obviously the opposite.

Hell- I can’t stand him but that is obvious - his only avenue to win is these rally’s. 
HB, it seems to me that his winning formula has been to get a large minority of the people so angry at the rest of the people that they will show up in greater numbers in the critical states on election day.  It worked when his opponent was perhaps the most disliked woman in America.  But he's not going to have the detested-opponent factor working for him this fall, as the opposition is much more united and fired up and the opposition candidate is much more likable.  So he's got to get his base even angrier than they were in 2016.  That's what he's doing in Tulsa today.  That's why the National Guard troops are here.  I wonder if the presence of the National Guard is going to be a staple of his rallies for the rest of the campaign.  Who pays the bills for that?
I don't think that it being his only way to win justifies doing anything and everything that works.  It escalates the anger on both sides.  There are some tactics that candidates on both sides should foreswear.
My esposita just saw in "breaking news" that six of the POTUS' staffers setting up the rally have tested positive for exposure to COVID-19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 20, 2020, 03:53:59 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 01:22:35 PM
Only his opponent Would whine incessantly that he won’t leave office after she beats him, and then refused to except your defeat for four years. You can’t make this shit up
Just to put all the facts on the table, our current POTUS did answer evasively when asked if he would accept the results if he lost.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 20, 2020, 04:03:14 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 20, 2020, 03:53:59 PM
Just to put all the facts on the table, our current POTUS did answer evasively when asked if he would accept the results if he lost.
There's a reason he specified that his side has all the guns.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 20, 2020, 04:04:56 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 02:56:19 PM
My definition of "wealthy" is a person who doesn't need any income.  They can do whatever they want realistically for the rest of their life with zero percent income.  And, if they did that they would pay no income taxes.

Many/most wealthy folks have their money mostly tied up in assets, say they started some company or whatever.  If they don't sell any part of that company, they have no income (unless it pays a dividend, and that is taxed favorably).  A wealthy person doesn't need to "hide" his money, he just needs to avoid having a bunch of income, and even if he does, he keeps most of it anyway, and still has his wealthy.
I don't disagree with that, but I'd add this to it.  Wealth, to a great degree, is between your ears.  (That's a semi-quote from Henry Ford, I think.)  It's what you know and what you know how to do.
If Bill Gates were removed from any connection with Microsoft and had his entire fortune confiscated, a year from now, he'd be well on his way to being wealthy again.
OTOH, lottery winners typically are right back where they were within 2 or 3 years of hitting it big.  They didn't know anything worthwhile before they won a lot of money, and once they spend or lose it, they still don't know anything.  Pro athletes often demonstrate this phenomenon too, albeit oftentimes they can make a living signing autographs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 20, 2020, 04:05:12 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 20, 2020, 03:11:50 PM

If you want to do away with money, what would you recommend we use to replace it?
How do you get from what I said to "do away with money"??????????
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 20, 2020, 04:05:41 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on June 20, 2020, 03:19:10 PM
75-80k? My happiness would plateau well beyond 75-80k.
I'm sure we all assume that.  But you know, they actually studied this.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 20, 2020, 04:06:41 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 20, 2020, 02:21:59 PM
Studies say money makes your life better, only up to $75-80,000/year.  Beyond that, it plateaus, and you have Biggie's "Mo Money, Mo Problems." 

So these billionaires avoiding taxes are just squirrels hiding nuts, only to lose 80% of them.
Link to these studies?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 20, 2020, 04:16:33 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 20, 2020, 03:41:03 PM
The Fed is near us and has a pretty interesting museum inside.  They have exhibits of what was used as money in other cultures.

Incidentally, it's not as if our System was somehow magically broken a few decades ago.  It has always been corrupt and pernicious, even back in the day.  The amount of money involved today is far greater and the size and scope of government is far greater.

A person living in say 1880 could live his entire life with no more interaction with Federal government than the Post Office and voting.  It simply was not a relevant factor for them.

My Dad was born in 1917 in their house and there was no official record of his existence until he joined the army in 1942.  He changed his name, by just changing it.  He didn't like his initials.  I imagine he got counted in a census, but just as a child living there.

He was a twin, and the first photo of him shows him wearing leg braces, he didn't know why, he may have had mild polio.
That's some story.
The "Longshoreman Philosopher" Eric Hoffer was supposedly born in NYC in 1898, but did not show up in any official records until the 1940 census.  There is much doubt about his place of birth, nationality, family history, and work history.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 20, 2020, 04:19:37 PM
Reasonable inference of what you meant based on what you posted.

I momentarily forgot that you would go into the Motte-and-Bailey defense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 20, 2020, 04:30:20 PM
From The Bulwark

Pandemic Reminder

I know it's hard to keep track of, with everything going on, but there is still a pandemic.

Every six days right now, COVID-19 is killing about as many Americans as were killed on 9/11.

And this week our official death toll surpassed the number of U.S. dead in World War 1.

It's very hard to get our arms around what the real state of play is on the virus. Looking at numbers of confirmed new infections is a function of testing, as well as infection rates. Looking at number of hospitalizations is a function of behavior and availability.

My view is that the death totals are the best metric to watch in terms of having a real view of the virus. The drawback is that deaths don't give you a view of where we are right now. They're the after image of where we were two to four weeks ago.

Anyway, the death numbers have continued to trend in the right direction, though the curve has been shallower than we'd hoped.

(https://i.imgur.com/xpQkepW.png)

This is, relatively speaking, good news. Deaths going down is better than deaths going up.

But at this point we're on track to have a preliminary death total—and remember, this number will almost certainly go up by a large percentage when in-depth accounting is done in the coming months—that's going to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 140,000 by the end of the summer.

One of the things we've done is constantly reset our sense of what is "normal" or "acceptable" over the last six months. Back when the total number of dead was 100, there were people yammering on about how it was obvious that Trump had handled COVID-19 better than Obama had handled H1-N1, because just look, only 100 people were dead!

If you had carried a report back to these people from 20 weeks in the future proving that 120,000 Americans would be dead and asked them what they thought about it, I suspect most of those people would have had their heads explode.

But we are where we are and so people have gotten used to the idea, like the frogs in the boiling water.

It turns out that the models were more or less in the ballpark even though the epidemiologists were working with wildly incomplete information and changing habits of behavior. The Imperial College model on deaths minus mitigation efforts now seems pretty reasonable based on the number of dead even with intense mitigation.

And the University of Washington's IMHE model that everyone mocked? Its first projection in late March was 161,000 dead.

That's pretty close to the pin.

Meanwhile, the people insisting that the coronavirus was no big deal, that it was nothing worse than the flu, that the death total wouldn't even hit five digits—they were wrong.

Wildly, completely, fully-verifiably wrong. . . .
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on June 20, 2020, 05:16:47 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 20, 2020, 04:05:12 PM
How do you get from what I said to "do away with money"??????????
Quote from: CWSooner on June 20, 2020, 04:30:20 PM
From The Bulwark

Pandemic Reminder

I know it's hard to keep track of, with everything going on, but there is still a pandemic.

Every six days right now, COVID-19 is killing about as many Americans as were killed on 9/11.

And this week our official death toll surpassed the number of U.S. dead in World War 1.

It's very hard to get our arms around what the real state of play is on the virus. Looking at numbers of confirmed new infections is a function of testing, as well as infection rates. Looking at number of hospitalizations is a function of behavior and availability.

My view is that the death totals are the best metric to watch in terms of having a real view of the virus. The drawback is that deaths don't give you a view of where we are right now. They're the after image of where we were two to four weeks ago.

Anyway, the death numbers have continued to trend in the right direction, though the curve has been shallower than we'd hoped.

(https://i.imgur.com/xpQkepW.png)

This is, relatively speaking, good news. Deaths going down is better than deaths going up.

But at this point we're on track to have a preliminary death total—and remember, this number will almost certainly go up by a large percentage when in-depth accounting is done in the coming months—that's going to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 140,000 by the end of the summer.

One of the things we've done is constantly reset our sense of what is "normal" or "acceptable" over the last six months. Back when the total number of dead was 100, there were people yammering on about how it was obvious that Trump had handled COVID-19 better than Obama had handled H1-N1, because just look, only 100 people were dead!

If you had carried a report back to these people from 20 weeks in the future proving that 120,000 Americans would be dead and asked them what they thought about it, I suspect most of those people would have had their heads explode.

But we are where we are and so people have gotten used to the idea, like the frogs in the boiling water.

It turns out that the models were more or less in the ballpark even though the epidemiologists were working with wildly incomplete information and changing habits of behavior. The Imperial College model on deaths minus mitigation efforts now seems pretty reasonable based on the number of dead even with intense mitigation.

And the University of Washington's IMHE model that everyone mocked? Its first projection in late March was 161,000 dead.

That's pretty close to the pin.

Meanwhile, the people insisting that the coronavirus was no big deal, that it was nothing worse than the flu, that the death total wouldn't even hit five digits—they were wrong.

Wildly, completely, fully-verifiably wrong. . . .

Younger people are getting it, as a result of opening up.  It's both good and bad news.  Per usual
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 20, 2020, 05:21:04 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 20, 2020, 04:06:41 PM
Link to these studies?
They're well known. That said, they might be outdated. I seem to remember hearing about them maybe a decade ago or more. So maybe the number is 100K now. And I'm sure the number is higher depending where you live. 

And they don't say that your life doesn't get more comfortable with additional income, or specifically what OAM intimated about "mo money, mo problems".

But they said that as far as "happiness" is concerned, there are diminishing returns once you cross into upper middle class and are comfortable. More money helps with baby things, but happiness plateaus and needs to be satisfied by other means than money if you want to be happier. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 05:38:46 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 20, 2020, 03:08:00 PM
First 5 google image search results for "George Floyd protests" (first five CFB51 would accept for posting, anyway).

Obviously not 100% mask coverage. But far above 50%. I'd guess above 80%.

Do you think the rally tonight will resemble these pictures regarding mask usage?


(https://i.imgur.com/1ZRZWOL.jpg)

(https://i.imgur.com/CY1Pygo.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/g1wWxeE.jpg)

(https://i.imgur.com/ic4yFMX.jpg)


(https://i.imgur.com/WFy48vS.png)
your kidding me right? Google?  Your seem like an incredibly intelligent dude to me so I will chalk that on up as a mulligan

I get the point you try to make though. But Google?  That gave me a hearty laugh. Talk about a left leaning censorship flagship.

You may as well get your info and photos from DNC. We could get into a image posting war- but that would just eat up time. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 05:42:24 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 20, 2020, 03:53:59 PM
Just to put all the facts on the table, our current POTUS did answer evasively when asked if he would accept the results if he lost.
Yes- but let’s focus on what actually happened- not what he said she said.   She lost and is still blaming it on Russian interference and numerous other conspiracy theories.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 06:06:13 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 20, 2020, 03:48:58 PM
HB, it seems to me that his winning formula has been to get a large minority of the people so angry at the rest of the people that they will show up in greater numbers in the critical states on election day.  It worked when his opponent was perhaps the most disliked woman in America.  But he's not going to have the detested-opponent factor working for him this fall, as the opposition is much more united and fired up and the opposition candidate is much more likable.  So he's got to get his base even angrier than they were in 2016.  That's what he's doing in Tulsa today.  That's why the National Guard troops are here.  I wonder if the presence of the National Guard is going to be a staple of his rallies for the rest of the campaign.  Who pays the bills for that?
I don't think that it being his only way to win justifies doing anything and everything that works.  It escalates the anger on both sides.  There are some tactics that candidates on both sides should foreswear.
My esposita just saw in "breaking news" that six of the POTUS' staffers setting up the rally have tested positive for exposure to COVID-19.
This is interesting but wildly speculative.  
Let’s start with me making it very clear that I did not vote for POTUS in 2016 nor will I be voting for him this year. Just absorb that for one second.

First of all your assumption about minority and majority is faulty. Our country is a collection of states that each pick their winner and POTUS Won what, 32 of the 50 states?  In that sense the election was not that close.

“He“ made the minority angry??. I think you are confusing cause-and-effect. There are a lot of theories books and other reading about how he won the election. Nearly all of them agree to some extent that the over the top PC climate- today most often referred to as The Woke or Triggered Culture- strongly contributed to the results because people were just fed up with the ridiculousness of what they felt was going on.   They wanted exactly what they got which is a Washington outsider who was not a career long politician.   Again remember I am not saying I agree with that I did not vote for him. Many against him insisted he was not capable not polished and not caring and you could make a great argument that they were proven correct.  But he did not do that -that was created over many years before he ever came along as a candidate.

There are many that theorize that his current supporters represent a sleeping bear, the silent majority, or whatever you want to call it.  I highly doubt it is a majority but I think it’s more substantial than you are giving it credit for. Their whole basis for being so energized is that the people with the microphones, the elites and the media are painting a picture every day of what a loser he is - how you should conform, and they realize that those people with the microphones do not speak for them or virtually anybody they know I highly doubt it is a majority but I think it’s more substantial than you are giving it credit for. Their whole basis for being so energized is that the people with the microphones, the elites and the media are painting a picture every day of what a loser he is and they realize that those people with the microphones do not speak for them or virtually anybody they know   And don’t point fingers at this crowd and insist that they are dumb or racist and all the stuff that the media tries to sell because it simply is middle-class Americans or upper middle-class Americans with an education -who are not racist at all but feel that the country continues to go way too far to the left and socialism and they see POTUS as the only thing standing in the way for that to continue to evolve. And don’t point fingers at this crowd and insist that they are dumb or racist and all the stuff that the media tries to sell because it simply is middle-class Americans or upper middle-class Americans with an education in who are not racist at all but feel that the country continues to go way too far to the left and socialism and they see POTUS as the only thing standing in the way for that to continue to evolve.   If he did not hold some of these rallies then they only thing they would see or hear in the majority of the media is a false premise which was proven by the 2016 election results.   

Imagine- in theUSA, portraying a campaign rally as a bad thing.  It is a perfect example of what that crowd finds so offensive- after just witnessing strong media and Dem political support for thousands to gather for a cause that turned into a “ war on police-something they find abhorrent.  They see the death of free speech.  Only those who comply can speak. If your words do not match the people with the microphones you are quickly chastise, fired from your job, and in some cases beaten within an inch of their life and they see that with their own eyes every single day.   ( hint- don’t use google to try to find that video)

That has NOTHING to to with POTUS. They saw that before he ever entered the picture. They saw the calls for violence “ what do we want: dead pigs, when do we want them, now” and the POTUS at that one reacted to that with( paraphrasing) I don’t blame them- they are angry. 

I could give many more examples. 

Lastly, and again this is coming from someone who will not vote for POTUS, you are completely under selling the level of divisive Ness actually being generated intentionally by strong voices in the media. It is in their best interest for tribal politics to stand strong. Everybody has to fall into a group or category. That’s the main reason to exist each morning when they wake up and if you can’t see that I don’t know what to tell you

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 20, 2020, 06:23:13 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 20, 2020, 05:21:04 PM
They're well known. That said, they might be outdated. I seem to remember hearing about them maybe a decade ago or more. So maybe the number is 100K now. And I'm sure the number is higher depending where you live.

And they don't say that your life doesn't get more comfortable with additional income, or specifically what OAM intimated about "mo money, mo problems".

But they said that as far as "happiness" is concerned, there are diminishing returns once you cross into upper middle class and are comfortable. More money helps with baby things, but happiness plateaus and needs to be satisfied by other means than money if you want to be happier.
I have read various summaries of studies that show things along that line.  For example, many couples with long and happy marriages say that they were happiest early on when they were working hard to make ends meet.  But I had never seen a dollar figure put to that conclusion.
I firmly believe that there is great satisfaction to be derived from a good work experience--working hard, doing it well, and being recognized for having done so.  Or even if the hard worker believes that he/she is doing a good job.  We devalue work--greatly to our detriment--when we devise social-welfare programs designed to enable people to "follow their dreams" without having to work.
We seem to have gone off in a "Stream of Unconciousness" direction here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 20, 2020, 06:31:00 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 06:06:13 PM
This is interesting but wildly speculative. 
Let’s start with me making it very clear that I did not vote for POTUS in 2016 nor will I be voting for him this year. Just absorb that for one second.

First of all your assumption about minority and majority is faulty. Our country is a collection of states that each pick their winner and POTUS Won what, 32 of the 50 states?  In that sense the election was not that close.

“He“ made the minority angry??. I think you are confusing cause-and-effect. There are a lot of theories books and other reading about how he won the election. Nearly all of them agree to some extent that the over the top PC climate- today most often referred to as The Woke or Triggered Culture- strongly contributed to the results because people were just fed up with the ridiculousness of what they felt was going on.  They wanted exactly what they got which is a Washington outsider who was not a career long politician.  Again remember I am not saying I agree with that I did not vote for him. Many against him insisted he was not capable not polished and not caring and you could make a great argument that they were proven correct.  But he did not do that -that was created over many years before he ever came along as a candidate.

There are many that theorize that his current supporters represent a sleeping bear, the silent majority, or whatever you want to call it.  I highly doubt it is a majority but I think it’s more substantial than you are giving it credit for. Their whole basis for being so energized is that the people with the microphones, the elites and the media are painting a picture every day of what a loser he is - how you should conform, and they realize that those people with the microphones do not speak for them or virtually anybody they know I highly doubt it is a majority but I think it’s more substantial than you are giving it credit for. Their whole basis for being so energized is that the people with the microphones, the elites and the media are painting a picture every day of what a loser he is and they realize that those people with the microphones do not speak for them or virtually anybody they know  And don’t point fingers at this crowd and insist that they are dumb or racist and all the stuff that the media tries to sell because it simply is middle-class Americans or upper middle-class Americans with an education -who are not racist at all but feel that the country continues to go way too far to the left and socialism and they see POTUS as the only thing standing in the way for that to continue to evolve. And don’t point fingers at this crowd and insist that they are dumb or racist and all the stuff that the media tries to sell because it simply is middle-class Americans or upper middle-class Americans with an education in who are not racist at all but feel that the country continues to go way too far to the left and socialism and they see POTUS as the only thing standing in the way for that to continue to evolve.  If he did not hold some of these rallies then they only thing they would see or hear in the majority of the media is a false premise which was proven by the 2016 election results. 

Imagine- in theUSA, portraying a campaign rally as a bad thing.  It is a perfect example of what that crowd finds so offensive- after just witnessing strong media and Dem political support for thousands to gather for a cause that turned into a “ war on police-something they find abhorrent.  They see the death of free speech.  Only those who comply can speak. If your words do not match the people with the microphones you are quickly chastise, fired from your job, and in some cases beaten within an inch of their life and they see that with their own eyes every single day.  ( hint- don’t use google to try to find that video)

That has NOTHING to to with POTUS. They saw that before he ever entered the picture. They saw the calls for violence “ what do we want: dead pigs, when do we want them, now” and the POTUS at that one reacted to that with( paraphrasing) I don’t blame them- they are angry.

I could give many more examples.

Lastly, and again this is coming from someone who will not vote for POTUS, you are completely under selling the level of divisive Ness actually being generated intentionally by strong voices in the media. It is in their best interest for tribal politics to stand strong. Everybody has to fall into a group or category. That’s the main reason to exist each morning when they wake up and if you can’t see that I don’t know what to tell you
Notice that I mentioned "in critical states" in my post to which you take so much exception.
You're bringing up race.  I don't think I mentioned it.
A campaign rally, just like a peaceful protest, has the potential to become an angry mob.  POTUS likes to fire up the potential mob by various means suggesting to them that they should rough up any protesters.
Those "fine people" the POTUS praised after the Charlottesville debacle are an example of people he fires up and believe that they are doing his bidding when they physically assault the opposition.  And POTUS never calls them out, never condemns them, because they are his base.
There are millions of people who do not support the POTUS who are not woke, not radicals, not part of cancel-culture.
OTOH, the people lined up in Tulsa to see the POTUS seem to be a bunch of dumb-ass rednecks who are proud that they don't need to wear masks.

POTUS' approval ratings are in the high 30s these days.  I think that's his core support--the "large minority" that I referred to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on June 20, 2020, 06:43:06 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 05:38:46 PM
your kidding me right? Google?  Your seem like an incredibly intelligent dude to me so I will chalk that on up as a mulligan

I get the point you try to make though. But Google?  That gave me a hearty laugh. Talk about a left leaning censorship flagship.

You may as well get your info and photos from DNC. We could get into a image posting war- but that would just eat up time. 

Use aon.askjeeves.com/overturnroe for the only legit search engine
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 20, 2020, 06:43:45 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 05:38:46 PM
your kidding me right? Google?  Your seem like an incredibly intelligent dude to me so I will chalk that on up as a mulligan

I get the point you try to make though. But Google?  That gave me a hearty laugh. Talk about a left leaning censorship flagship.

You may as well get your info and photos from DNC. We could get into a image posting war- but that would just eat up time. 

Well, it's this a better source?

https://www.foxnews.com/world/george-floyd-anti-racism-protests-rallies

A sideshow showing overwhelming mask usage.

Compare that to this:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-hold-campaign-rally-in-tulsa

There are a few glimpses of masks, among a sea of non mask wearing in the pictures. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 20, 2020, 06:49:35 PM
Quote from: ELA on June 20, 2020, 06:43:06 PM
Use aon.askjeeves.com/overturnroe for the only legit search engine
I only use netscape navigator for bias free results
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 06:50:17 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 20, 2020, 06:31:00 PM
Notice that I mentioned "in critical states" in my post to which you take so much exception.
You're bringing up race.  I don't think I mentioned it.
A campaign rally, just like a peaceful protest, has the potential to become an angry mob.  POTUS likes to fire up the potential mob by various means suggesting to them that they should rough up any protesters.
Those "fine people" the POTUS praised after the Charlottesville debacle are an example of people he fires up and believe that they are doing his bidding when they physically assault the opposition.  And POTUS never calls them out, never condemns them, because they are his base.
There are millions of people who do not support the POTUS who are not woke, not radicals, not part of cancel-culture.
OTOH, the people lined up in Tulsa to see the POTUS seem to be a bunch of dumb-ass rednecks who are proud that they don't need to wear masks.

POTUS' approval ratings are in the high 30s these days.  I think that's his core support--the "large minority" that I referred to.
Wow.  Dumbass red necks.  I just lost faith in you.  You have to call people names who don’t agree with you. Sad.  Sad for you.

by the way, don’t put words in my mouth.  I never said people who oppose him are Woke.  I said it is the rise of the PC culture, now the Woke culture, that energizes those who are moderates or right leaning. 

and you characterization of what he said about Charlottesville is completely misleading, a snippet taken out of context by the left and assumed to represent reality.  Standard operating procedure.

lastly, I have been watching CBS news, live for the last 45 minutes.  They showed live snippets of the rally crowd, and then the protestors near by, and then other marches/ crowds for Juneteenth.  It was so cleverly coordinated...as they showed people being handed masks at the rally, some putting them on as they were walking in, others refusing them. The cut away super fast from the people wearing them

the majority of nearby protestors against POTUS must be rednecks too, because the overwhelming majority of them were NOT wearing masks.  And then they showed the Juneteenth crowd....it might have been 50/50 on masks.     Those images were cut away from and dispatched quickly.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 06:51:34 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 20, 2020, 06:43:45 PM
Well, it's this a better source?

https://www.foxnews.com/world/george-floyd-anti-racism-protests-rallies

A sideshow showing overwhelming mask usage.

Compare that to this:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-hold-campaign-rally-in-tulsa

There are a few glimpses of masks, among a sea of non mask wearing in the pictures.
See my posts above.  If you catch live feeds, you can see the truth, although they remove it quickly. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 07:00:27 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 20, 2020, 06:31:00 PM
Notice that I mentioned "in critical states" in my post to which you take so much exception.
You're bringing up race.  I don't think I mentioned it.
A campaign rally, just like a peaceful protest, has the potential to become an angry mob.  POTUS likes to fire up the potential mob by various means suggesting to them that they should rough up any protesters.
Those "fine people" the POTUS praised after the Charlottesville debacle are an example of people he fires up and believe that they are doing his bidding when they physically assault the opposition.  And POTUS never calls them out, never condemns them, because they are his base.
There are millions of people who do not support the POTUS who are not woke, not radicals, not part of cancel-culture.
OTOH, the people lined up in Tulsa to see the POTUS seem to be a bunch of dumb-ass rednecks who are proud that they don't need to wear masks.

POTUS' approval ratings are in the high 30s these days.  I think that's his core support--the "large minority" that I referred to.
Also, when has one of his rallies turned violent?  They have been a few case where the Antifa group tried to make it that way, but it has not been an issue.  
 As far as his approval ratings,  I have no idea how that works.  They seem pretty fluid and definitely not dependable, as we all have learned.  I know the approval rating of congress and Media are even lower.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 20, 2020, 07:11:28 PM
https://twitter.com/AsteadWesley/status/1274465912951844866?s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 20, 2020, 07:12:43 PM
https://twitter.com/Politidope/status/1274473702227353605?s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 20, 2020, 07:32:17 PM
I'm proud of my fellow Tulsans for failing to fill the 19,000-seat arena, despite the POTUS' claims that over a hundred thousand people had requested tickets.  Local news is showing the same story as those pics on Twitter.  Maybe 12,000 or so in attendance would be my guess.

I was at POTUS' inauguration.  His speech that day--surely one of the worst-ever--was perfectly consistent with how he will campaign this summer.  His claim in the days that followed his inauguration that his crowd was the largest ever, much larger than his predecessor's, was perfectly consistent with the claims he has made about the crowd in Tulsa.  I can hardly wait to hear the explanation for the poor showing.

Wait!  The explanation is already out!  It seems that many thousands of people ordered tickets with no intention of showing up!  Damned libtard snowflakes!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 20, 2020, 08:04:53 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 20, 2020, 07:32:17 PM
I'm proud of my fellow Tulsans for failing to fill the 19,000-seat arena, despite the POTUS' claims that over a hundred thousand people had requested tickets.  Local news is showing the same story as those pics on Twitter.  Maybe 12,000 or so in attendance would be my guess.

I was at POTUS' inauguration.  His speech that day--surely one of the worst-ever--was perfectly consistent with how he will campaign this summer.  His claim in the days that followed his inauguration that his crowd was the largest ever, much larger than his predecessor's, was perfectly consistent with the claims he has made about the crowd in Tulsa.  I can hardly wait to hear the explanation for the poor showing.

Wait!  The explanation is already out!  It seems that many thousands of people ordered tickets with no intention of showing up!  Damned libtard snowflakes!
The data side of me really wants to use this rally as a sort of case study for football.  I would love to have tracing data and whatnot.

But I'm a nerd, so...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 20, 2020, 08:15:07 PM
The campaign blames protesters and, of course, the media for the low turnout. Had they been more on the ball they could have easily had the rally with social distancing and masks and looked a lot better and also not been as irresponsible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on June 20, 2020, 09:07:11 PM
If people would just wear masks everywhere, this would be behind us (for now).  Instead, it's been politicized for God knows why.  It's a no brainer...oh, wait, I get it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 20, 2020, 10:09:42 PM
Quote from: ELA on June 20, 2020, 06:43:06 PM
Use aon.askjeeves.com/overturnroe for the only legit search engine
That was a good joke. But to perfectly honest with you, Google is no longer a search engine company, they engage in illegal monopolistic behavior, and it is most definitely run by complete whack jobs, and it is most definitely bad for society. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 20, 2020, 10:14:47 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 20, 2020, 06:23:13 PM
I have read various summaries of studies that show things along that line.  For example, many couples with long and happy marriages say that they were happiest early on when they were working hard to make ends meet.  But I had never seen a dollar figure put to that conclusion.
I firmly believe that there is great satisfaction to be derived from a good work experience--working hard, doing it well, and being recognized for having done so.  Or even if the hard worker believes that he/she is doing a good job.  We devalue work--greatly to our detriment--when we devise social-welfare programs designed to enable people to "follow their dreams" without having to work.
We seem to have gone off in a "Stream of Unconciousness" direction here.
Agree 100%. 

People tend to lack purpose. They tend to do jobs that they hate just in order to make a living. Many of these people are people who make a lot of money. Deep down they don’t like or even hate what they do but they are good at it and make a lot of money at it. 

People that are the happiest tend to find what they love to do for work and then it’s never like work for them. They tend to find purpose in their work and it gives them meaning and makes them feel fulfilled. 

That’s my two cents anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 10:17:46 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on June 20, 2020, 08:15:07 PM
The campaign blames protesters and, of course, the media for the low turnout. Had they been more on the ball they could have easily had the rally with social distancing and masks and looked a lot better and also not been as irresponsible.
Not sure where your getting this- but seeing it is attempting to discredit the rally before it starts- your slurping the spew from XiNN.  

or maybe your following the elites on social media- lol.  The same ones whining that this would be a packed arena. Covid covid!! Now- I am sure crowing if they think the arena wasn’t packed.  Lol.   So triggered and woke. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 20, 2020, 10:21:10 PM
Quote from: ELA on June 20, 2020, 09:07:11 PM
If people would just wear masks everywhere, this would be behind us (for now).  Instead, it's been politicized for God knows why.  It's a no brainer...oh, wait, I get it.
Well two things.  

1) Fauci admitted to lying about the entire mask thing, so now people distrust him and their government. 

2) WHO just now said that asymptotic spread is incredibly rare. I believe those were their exact words. 

And the masks- unless they are a specific type called N95- which most people don’t have this type of mask- don’t stop the virus particles from entering, they stop the wearer from letting any virus particles he or she may have from getting out. 

So if it can’t be spread by those who are asymptomatic, and if the vast majority of masks that people have don’t filter out the virus particles- it almost seems like a moot point to me. 

Wear a mask if you’re out and about and you’re showing symptoms. Really you should be away isolated and alone in quarantine if you have symptoms, but if you have to be out wear a mask. 

Unless you’re symptomatic or you are around people that are symptomatic and unless you have an N95 mask- makes no sense at all too wear a mask. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 10:22:45 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 20, 2020, 10:21:10 PM
Well two things. 

1) Fauci admitted to lying about the entire mask thing, so now people distrust him and their government.

2) WHO just now said that asymptotic spread is incredibly rare. I believe those were their exact words.

And the masks- unless they are a specific type called N95- which most people don’t have this type of mask- don’t stop the virus particles from entering, they stop the wearer from letting any virus particles he or she may have from getting out.

So if it can’t be spread by those who are asymptomatic, and if the vast majority of masks that people have don’t filter out the virus particles- it almost seems like a moot point to me.

Wear a mask if you’re out and about and you’re showing symptoms. Really you should be away isolated and alone in quarantine if you have symptoms, but if you have to be out wear a mask.

Unless you’re symptomatic or you are around people that are symptomatic and unless you have an N95 mask- makes no sense at all too wear a mask.
How dare you bring facts like that! You fired!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 20, 2020, 10:24:43 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 20, 2020, 10:21:10 PM
Well two things. 

1) Fauci admitted to lying about the entire mask thing, so now people distrust him and their government.

2) WHO just now said that asymptotic spread is incredibly rare. I believe those were their exact words.

And the masks- unless they are a specific type called N95- which most people don’t have this type of mask- don’t stop the virus particles from entering, they stop the wearer from letting any virus particles he or she may have from getting out.

So if it can’t be spread by those who are asymptomatic, and if the vast majority of masks that people have don’t filter out the virus particles- it almost seems like a moot point to me.

Wear a mask if you’re out and about and you’re showing symptoms. Really you should be away isolated and alone in quarantine if you have symptoms, but if you have to be out wear a mask.

Unless you’re symptomatic or you are around people that are symptomatic and unless you have an N95 mask- makes no sense at all too wear a mask.
wait till next week and he'll say the opposite
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 20, 2020, 10:53:02 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 10:17:46 PM
Not sure where your getting this- but seeing it is attempting to discredit the rally before it starts- your slurping the spew from XiNN. 

or maybe your following the elites on social media- lol.  The same ones whining that this would be a packed arena. Covid covid!! Now- I am sure crowing if they think the arena wasn’t packed.  Lol.  So triggered and woke.
You're truly lost.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 10:55:08 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 20, 2020, 10:53:02 PM
You're truly lost.
Millions of us are.  Show us the way lol
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 20, 2020, 11:33:50 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 20, 2020, 10:17:46 PM
Not sure where your getting this- but seeing it is attempting to discredit the rally before it starts- your slurping the spew from XiNN. 

or maybe your following the elites on social media- lol.  The same ones whining that this would be a packed arena. Covid covid!! Now- I am sure crowing if they think the arena wasn’t packed.  Lol.  So triggered and woke.
That's sort of old fashioned thinking. You can get real time news over the various social media apps without any input at all from "elites" or XiNN or whatever the latest thing we should distrust.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 21, 2020, 12:30:05 AM
HB:
What Sam said is correct.  The campaign announced that protesters had bought up all the tickets so that only about 12,000 of the 100,000 who allegedly wanted to attend actually could do so.
And the speech that was supposed to go to the overflow crowd was canceled because there was no overflow crowd.
I didn't get that from woke elites.  It all went down about 6 miles from where I'm sitting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on June 21, 2020, 12:49:43 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 20, 2020, 10:21:10 PM
Well two things. 

1) Fauci admitted to lying about the entire mask thing, so now people distrust him and their government.

2) WHO just now said that asymptotic spread is incredibly rare. I believe those were their exact words.

And the masks- unless they are a specific type called N95- which most people don’t have this type of mask- don’t stop the virus particles from entering, they stop the wearer from letting any virus particles he or she may have from getting out.

So if it can’t be spread by those who are asymptomatic, and if the vast majority of masks that people have don’t filter out the virus particles- it almost seems like a moot point to me.

Wear a mask if you’re out and about and you’re showing symptoms. Really you should be away isolated and alone in quarantine if you have symptoms, but if you have to be out wear a mask.

Unless you’re symptomatic or you are around people that are symptomatic and unless you have an N95 mask- makes no sense at all too wear a mask.
Japan is a country where mask wearing has been common, and is regarded as a courtesy. As of June 20, 2020, COVID-19 deaths in Japan were 952, compared to June 20, 2020 deaths in the United States of 121,441.

Your surgeon, your surgeon's nurses, and your dentist have worn masks for your protection for years. I ridiculed the statement about masks when first made because it made no sense whatsoever. Why have surgical staff and dentists been wasting money on masks if they were not to prevent spread of disease to those they were hovering over? Masks were then in short supply is why the statement was made. I was planning to fly and bought some immediately despite Fauci's dumb statement because it obviously was made to forestall a run on masks.

WHO almost immediately took back its statement on asymptomatic spread and there is much evidence that one is most contagious in the 18-hours or so before one becomes symptomatic.

4 in 5 people in a study in China were likely infected by someone who didn't know they had it. https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/asymptomatic-and-pre-symptomatic-coronavirus-spread-whats-the-difference-and-why-does-it-matter/ar-BB15g1TV (https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/asymptomatic-and-pre-symptomatic-coronavirus-spread-whats-the-difference-and-why-does-it-matter/ar-BB15g1TV)

If 80% of people would wear masks several researchers say the spread would plummet, and we would no longer have a pandemic. Here is an article about one study that draws this conclusion, but it is not the only study that makes this conclusion. https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05/masks-covid-19-infections-would-plummet-new-study-says (https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05/masks-covid-19-infections-would-plummet-new-study-says) To end the pandemic, the masks do not have to be N95 that protects the wearer, and those around him. Surgical and homemade masks if worn by 80% will end the pandemic. By all means if you want to protect yourself, and others, get the N95 which are in the shortest supply but more are becoming available.

The surgical masks provide some limited protection to the wearer, but are better at protecting those around the wearer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on June 21, 2020, 12:51:55 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 21, 2020, 12:30:05 AM
HB:
What Sam said is correct.  The campaign announced that protesters had bought up all the tickets so that only about 12,000 of the 100,000 who allegedly wanted to attend actually could do so.
And the speech that was supposed to go to the overflow crowd was canceled because there was no overflow crowd.
I didn't get that from woke elites.  It all went down about 6 miles from where I'm sitting.
How much did a ticket cost?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 21, 2020, 01:05:48 AM
I don't know, Hawkinole.

But I second your previous post on mask-wearing.  There's no logical reason for people to not wear masks.  The resistance to doing so is all tied up in other considerations.  Demonstrating one's political affiliation, personal courage, disdain for society, or whatever.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 21, 2020, 01:10:08 AM
It demonstrates ignorance, first and foremost.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 21, 2020, 01:12:02 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 21, 2020, 12:30:05 AM
HB:
What Sam said is correct. The campaign announced...
no need to read anything after that phrase.  It's rubbish and we all know it. 

(Not you, CW, the campaign)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on June 21, 2020, 01:27:43 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 21, 2020, 01:05:48 AM
I don't know, Hawkinole.

But I second your previous post on mask-wearing.  There's no logical reason for people to not wear masks.  The resistance to doing so is all tied up in other considerations.  Demonstrating one's political affiliation, personal courage, disdain for society, or whatever.
I will go back to 21-years ago. I somehow caught cryptosporidium and felt like I was going to die. I don't want to gross anybody out. I would still come down to my law office and work an hour a day, but in my early 40s I spoke like a 90-year old man. My gait slowed to a 90-year old man gait. And my gait was slow for 6-months. My doctor said I would completely recover, but I did not completely recover for one-year.

Before I was infected, I was healthier and better conditioned than most men my age. At age 63 I am healthier than most men my age. But, I am fully aware if I get a weird disease I could die or pass it onto someone who could die. I am taking precautions.

If one of us in my family that includes my wife and 25-year old daughter gets this, I am sending him/her to a local hotel to recover, and food and supplies will be delivered. My daughter is home for the summer on a PT internship and probably sees a dozen patients and staff a day. She wears protective gear, but I believe it is surgical masks. Patients are required to wear surgical masks unless they have COPD or something else that affects breathing.

My daughter is the most likely vector, and the least likely to have any consequence if she get this disease.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 21, 2020, 02:17:32 AM
I'm not sure if I should visit my family in FL/GA.  I'm sure I'd be fine, but I don't want to get my dad sick or something.  I know the odds are against it, but the "what if" aspect keeps me sitting on the fence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 21, 2020, 07:11:13 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 21, 2020, 12:30:05 AM
HB:
What Sam said is correct.  The campaign announced that protesters had bought up all the tickets so that only about 12,000 of the 100,000 who allegedly wanted to attend actually could do so.
And the speech that was supposed to go to the overflow crowd was canceled because there was no overflow crowd.
I didn't get that from woke elites.  It all went down about 6 miles from where I'm sitting.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Actually you just got ROCKED by teens on TikTok who flooded the Trump campaign w/ fake ticket reservations &amp; tricked you into believing a million people wanted your white supremacist open mic enough to pack an arena during COVID<br><br>Shout out to Zoomers. Y’all make me so proud. ☺️ <a href="https://t.co/jGrp5bSZ9T">https://t.co/jGrp5bSZ9T</a></p>&mdash; Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) <a href="https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1274499021625794565?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 21, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Have to give you credit CW, this is not a POTUS claim, but bragging from the Snowflake Libtard.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 21, 2020, 08:00:20 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 21, 2020, 02:17:32 AM
I'm not sure if I should visit my family in FL/GA.  I'm sure I'd be fine, but I don't want to get my dad sick or something.  I know the odds are against it, but the "what if" aspect keeps me sitting on the fence.
It's tough. We're going down to see my parents. I'm always worried about it but at some point the parents want to see their grand kids
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 21, 2020, 08:20:22 AM
My kid in Texas wants to visit, by air, soonish.  Probably will dissuade.

I think a lot of not wearing a mask is not understanding the purpose of it, finding it strange, fogging your glasses (which it does), and sometimes political.

One candidate makes a point of not wearing it and they other makes the opposite point.

We value our freedom but when it comes to responsibility .....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 21, 2020, 09:57:56 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on June 21, 2020, 08:00:20 AM
It's tough. We're going down to see my parents. I'm always worried about it but at some point the parents want to see their grand kids
Where in FL Sam?  It makes a difference. Here where I am we are all still wearing masks and distancing.  But if you go to more populated areas lie Palm Beach or Tampa- there are a lot of younger folks not being careful and getting it. 
Happy Fathers Day!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 21, 2020, 10:06:48 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 21, 2020, 09:57:56 AM
Where in FL Sam?  It makes a difference. Here where I am we are all still wearing masks and distancing.  But if you go to more populated areas lie Palm Beach or Tampa- there are a lot of younger folks not being careful and getting it.
Happy Fathers Day!
Heh about a 1000 miles north. My folks live in southern Ohio I just meant in general visiting your higher risk folks is stressful
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 21, 2020, 10:52:06 AM
Tulsa FD says that 6,900 people attended Trump's rally.  In the pictures I have seen, VERY few people are wearing masks.  I'd say less than 5%.

Although a much smaller crowd than anticipated, I am curious as to whether or not this will cause an outbreak.  Apparently they did temperature checks as people entered the stadium.

I would assume that most fans in cfb stadiums will wear masks, and that temperature checks would be a given.  Will this be enough?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 21, 2020, 12:19:15 PM
If folks keep their masks in place, it would help.  I just can't see how the players are going to stay uninfectious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 21, 2020, 12:23:02 PM
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/20/881260031/nih-halts-hydroxychloroquine-study-says-unlikely-to-help-covid-19-patients?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=nprblogscoronavirusliveupdates (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/20/881260031/nih-halts-hydroxychloroquine-study-says-unlikely-to-help-covid-19-patients?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=nprblogscoronavirusliveupdates)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on June 21, 2020, 12:33:13 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 21, 2020, 12:30:05 AM
HB:
What Sam said is correct.  The campaign announced that protesters had bought up all the tickets so that only about 12,000 of the 100,000 who allegedly wanted to attend actually could do so.
And the speech that was supposed to go to the overflow crowd was canceled because there was no overflow crowd.
I didn't get that from woke elites.  It all went down about 6 miles from where I'm sitting.
I’m trying to see if there was an actual limit on tickets at all (I think they were free). It doesn’t seem like they actually put much of a cap on distribution (In part for data collection reasons).

Perhaps one could argue the threat of a full building when none existed tamped down real attendance, but it doesn’t seem like supply of tickets was in question.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 21, 2020, 01:10:51 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on June 21, 2020, 12:33:13 PM
I’m trying to see if there was an actual limit on tickets at all (I think they were free). It doesn’t seem like they actually put much of a cap on distribution (In part for data collection reasons).

Perhaps one could argue the threat of a full building when none existed tamped down real attendance, but it doesn’t seem like supply of tickets was in question.
There was an overflow area outside the arena and Trump was going to make a speech there too.  A stage was set up, sound system, the whole nine yards.  But there was no overflow crowd, so that was canceled.  Which may partly explain why the speech inside went on and on and on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 21, 2020, 01:34:50 PM
I possess a small number of antibodies. I had it a long time ago - 1st week in March, probably from all the air travel I did, starting in November. Doctor said there is still risk. My wife tested negative, so I never gave it to her. Seems impossible, but what can I say? Weird.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 21, 2020, 01:41:12 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 21, 2020, 01:34:50 PM
I possess a small number of antibodies. I had it a long time ago - 1st week in March, probably from all the air travel I did, starting in November. Doctor said there is still risk. My wife tested negative, so I never gave it to her. Seems impossible, but what can I say? Weird.
Glad you are good badge!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 21, 2020, 01:48:07 PM
Apparently I can still get it again, but it's not likely. I will continue with the mask.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 21, 2020, 02:01:01 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 21, 2020, 01:34:50 PM
I possess a small number of antibodies. I had it a long time ago - 1st week in March, probably from all the air travel I did, starting in November. Doctor said there is still risk. My wife tested negative, so I never gave it to her. Seems impossible, but what can I say? Weird.
Wow, that's crazy.  I was doing a lot of travel around then, too. Maybe I should get tested.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 21, 2020, 02:02:08 PM
Why not? It's free. Everyone should get tested.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 21, 2020, 02:39:39 PM
Will an urgent care place have tests?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 21, 2020, 02:44:06 PM
I was told by family that CVS is doing drive through testing in AZ, at 49 locations. I don't know if they are free - bring your insurance card regardless, as the executive order requiring insurance to pay 100% of the testing cost is still in effect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 21, 2020, 03:00:39 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 21, 2020, 02:02:08 PM
Why not? It's free. Everyone should get tested.
I don't think the antibody test is free, though, right?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 21, 2020, 03:23:56 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 21, 2020, 02:02:08 PM
Why not? It's free. Everyone should get tested.
They chipped you it was inside the cotton,J/K.How long from when you contacted them about apptmnt until apptmnt did it take?Week,2,3.....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 21, 2020, 03:43:23 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 21, 2020, 03:00:39 PM
I don't think the antibody test is free, though, right?
Yes, it is. I didn't pay a dime. Had it done at Glenbrook Hospital Friday afternoon.

Got the results about 5 hours later.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 21, 2020, 03:44:07 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 21, 2020, 03:23:56 PM
They chipped you it was inside the cotton,J/K.How long from when you contacted them about apptmnt until apptmnt did it take?Week,2,3.....
3 days, but that was my choosing. I could have gone same day if I could have.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 21, 2020, 04:06:47 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 21, 2020, 03:43:23 PM
Yes, it is. I didn't pay a dime. Had it done at Glenbrook Hospital Friday afternoon.

Got the results about 5 hours later.
My son had a test for sports 5 days ago. We are still waiting on the results.

They only offered the swab test at the place he went.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 21, 2020, 04:09:56 PM
I didn't get the swab test, because my wife did on Tuesday and she was negative. I'll do that one in a few weeks, just to see.

She was resulted within 24 hours on hers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on June 21, 2020, 04:43:50 PM
And the less than stellar reliability of CV testing is a reminder of why Elizabeth Holmes and Theranos is one of the worst ethical scandals of our times.  Her criminal trial was pushed to October due to CV.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 21, 2020, 05:42:24 PM
I wonder if they'll let me get tested twice.  If a false result is 50/50, then I can at least get it to 75/25 if I get tested twice and the outcomes match.  

My plan is to get tested and only travel to FL/GA if I've already had it.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on June 21, 2020, 11:58:42 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 21, 2020, 02:17:32 AM
I'm not sure if I should visit my family in FL/GA.  I'm sure I'd be fine, but I don't want to get my dad sick or something.  I know the odds are against it, but the "what if" aspect keeps me sitting on the fence.
I am 63. My folks are 86 and 87, and in good health. I canceled my mid-April flight to Tucson. They went from wanting to see me to wanting to cut back on visitors, especially visitors who would be overnight at their residence after flying on connecting flights with 300 other passengers. I was going to wear surgical masks before masks were being commonly worn.

The idea of flying on a plane is troubling me, but if a face shield and face mask are worn, and you are tested before you fly, you mostly eliminate yourself as having the virus, and eliminate nearly every conceivable mode of transmission, especially if your mask is an N95 mask. But the combination of surgical mask and face shield would be very protective.

I am thinking about visiting my folks when my daughter starts her internship in Tucson in January, while considering how to protect everyone.

Not every Republican eschews recommendations. I talked to my brother a few days ago, and he was just livid about the lack of mask adherents in Tucson. He said it was about 25%, with cases spiking. He buys the groceries for my parents and he is getting curbside pickup without going into stores. But then he works with the public, too. He said the Mayor was imposing a mandatory mask policy, but I read tonight that the Pinal County Sheriff will not enforce it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on June 22, 2020, 12:02:18 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 21, 2020, 12:19:15 PM
If folks keep their masks in place, it would help.  I just can't see how the players are going to stay uninfectious.
I don't see how players will not be infected, either. Many of the athletes are testing positive already. How many is too many?

I read an article on www.hawkcentral.com tonight in which Bob Bowlsby, Big 12 Commissioner, and others are saying it is entirely possible that the Iowa - Iowa State game could be played 2x in 2020 if a regularly scheduled team is unavailable for them to play. The situation is fluid.
I think it is entirely possible they won't play at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 22, 2020, 07:06:35 AM
I presume any player who tests positive will not be allowed to be anywhere near any other players.  I presume many players on every team will test positive at some point.

The number of new cases in GA yesterday dropped back to 892 from 1800, which was a one day spike (I hope).

If you see a thousand new cases a day in a population of roughly 10 million, that isn't a high percentage of course, 1 in 10,000, but every day....

In GA the rates are high in some rural counties, not so high here in ATL.

There is a lot about this I don't understand.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 22, 2020, 08:14:53 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 22, 2020, 07:06:35 AM
I presume any player who tests positive will not be allowed to be anywhere near any other players.  I presume many players on every team will test positive at some point.

The number of new cases in GA yesterday dropped back to 892 from 1800, which was a one day spike (I hope).

If you see a thousand new cases a day in a population of roughly 10 million, that isn't a high percentage of course, 1 in 10,000, but every day....

In GA the rates are high in some rural counties, not so high here in ATL.

There is a lot about this I don't understand.

Here in Texico, when the rate goes high in rural areas, it's often been that the virus hit a nursing home, or a meat packing plant, or some other facility that we've now discovered are high risk.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 22, 2020, 08:55:41 AM
As noted, it may not be the plant where they get infected, but where they live in crowded "dorms", same as in Singapore.

These guys go home from work exhausted and tend to "mingle" and may live 4 to a room, or higher, to save money.  I know many are "illegals", but I have to admire their work ethic and the fact they send money home so their families can survive.  Nearly all the construction workers here appear to be Hispanic, and they do not stand around idly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on June 22, 2020, 09:03:55 AM
https://www.euronews.com/2020/06/19/covid-19-may-have-been-in-italy-as-early-as-december-2019-according-to-new-research

Given:

-The Mrs. and I were gallivanting around Italy at the end of December
- Shortly after we got back, she got viciously sick with a respiratory illness that was very different than the bronchitis we've dealt with

we are trying to find out how to get the antibody test around here. And whether any of the ones around here are worth a damn. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 22, 2020, 09:07:43 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on June 22, 2020, 09:03:55 AM
https://www.euronews.com/2020/06/19/covid-19-may-have-been-in-italy-as-early-as-december-2019-according-to-new-research

Given:

-The Mrs. and I were gallivanting around Italy at the end of December
- Shortly after we got back, she got viciously sick with a respiratory illness that was very different than the bronchitis we've dealt with

we are trying to find out how to get the antibody test around here. And whether any of the ones around here are worth a damn.

Start first with your PCP.  I told mine that I'd been contacted via tracing and had exposure.  They set up a telehealth visit within an hour, and had both a swab test for active infection, and a blood draw for antibodies, scheduled for me same-day.  All free for me, not sure if they billed my insurance or if the tests were free but either way, zero out of pocket.

If you're worried they won't just prescribe the test, then... well... lie about exposure.  They never asked me specifically who I'd had contact with, legally I'm not sure they even can.

But I have no reason to think they won't get you set up. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 22, 2020, 09:09:38 AM
Oh, and I hear that the blood draw for antibodies, is more accurate than the finger prick,  so you might want to double-check the accuracy of the statement I just made with your own doctor, and then make sure you can get the more accurate one.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 22, 2020, 09:11:40 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/22/coronavirus-cases-surge-in-us-brazil-and-rise-in-germany.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/22/coronavirus-cases-surge-in-us-brazil-and-rise-in-germany.html)

Now Germany reports an R0 of 2.88, not good, and perhaps supports my notion that area under the curve will be constant no matter what.

One would think this would go through India very quickly, and their reported cases probably reflect a shortage of tests.

Brazil as well, their favellas were the worst living conditions I've ever seen anywhere.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 22, 2020, 09:28:08 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on June 22, 2020, 09:03:55 AM
https://www.euronews.com/2020/06/19/covid-19-may-have-been-in-italy-as-early-as-december-2019-according-to-new-research

Given:

-The Mrs. and I were gallivanting around Italy at the end of December
- Shortly after we got back, she got viciously sick with a respiratory illness that was very different than the bronchitis we've dealt with

we are trying to find out how to get the antibody test around here. And whether any of the ones around here are worth a damn.
Go to CVS. Make an appointment first.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 22, 2020, 09:33:07 AM
I personally would not bother with an AB test because everything I read suggests they are not reliable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 22, 2020, 09:55:58 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 22, 2020, 09:33:07 AM
I personally would not bother with an AB test because everything I read suggests they are not reliable.
They're reliable. The issue is that they have less predictive power due to low prevalence in the population.

In either case, that presents a problem for someone who is being tested, but saying they're unreliable sounds like quality of the test itself is to blame, which isn't the case. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 22, 2020, 10:05:20 AM
And this is the problem with this whole covid thing reliable individuals (CD & Bwarb) are often in conflict/disagreement.Wanna believe somebody but Wuhan, I mean who?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 22, 2020, 10:40:29 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 22, 2020, 09:55:58 AM
They're reliable. The issue is that they have less predictive power due to low prevalence in the population.

In either case, that presents a problem for someone who is being tested, but saying they're unreliable sounds like quality of the test itself is to blame, which isn't the case.
I don't know what this means.  When I get tested, it's either accurate or it's not.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 22, 2020, 10:50:49 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 22, 2020, 10:05:20 AM
And this is the problem with this whole covid thing reliable individuals (CD & Bwarb) are often in conflict/disagreement.Wanna believe somebody but Wuhan, I mean who?
I wasn't disagreeing with CD. I was clarifying.

The tests aren't reliable for predicting whether YOU have antibodies if YOU get a positive result. But that's not a problem with the test, it's a problem with having such a low prevalence of antibodies in the population that you can't be sure whether your test was a real positive or a false positive. 

Think of it this way: 

Prevalence: 1% of the population has antibodies
Test A: 5% false positive rate: You will get about 6% actual positive result from the test. Which means for any individual person who tests positive, they have only a 17% likelihood that they actually have antibodies.
Test B: 1% false positive rate: You will get about a 2% actual positive results from the test. Which means for any individual person who tests positive, they only have an 50% chance that they actually have antibodies.

Prevalence: 5% of the population has antibodies

Test A: 5% false positive rate: You will get about 10% actual positive result from the test. Which means for any individual person who tests positive, they have only a 50% likelihood that they actually have antibodies.
Test B: 1% false positive rate: You will get about a 6% actual positive results from the test. Which means for any individual person who tests positive, they only have an 83% chance that they actually have antibodies.

Prevalence: 50% of the population has antibodies

Test A: 5% false positive rate: You will get about 55% actual positive result from the test. Which means for any individual person who tests positive, they have only a 91% likelihood that they actually have antibodies.
Test B: 1% false positive rate: You will get about a 51% actual positive results from the test. Which means for any individual person who tests positive, they only have an 98% chance that they actually have antibodies.

So the key is that even for a very accurate test, and I think most antibody tests are around the specificity of Test B in the above scenarios, the actual predictive power of a GOOD test depends highly on the prevalence of the condition you're testing for, and the prevalence is too low right now to give as much predictive power as we would like. 

(Note above: those numbers aren't perfect, because I didn't take into account the fact that a false positive rate only affects the non-positive folks (i.e. 5% false positive when you have 50% prevalence should only give you 52.5% actual positive rate, because you can only get false positives on the folks who aren't true positives (5% * 50% = 2.5%). However I left those out because I didn't want to mess with the false negative rate, which also has to be taken into account.)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 22, 2020, 10:54:36 AM
Looking at Florida today, 60 percent of the cases are in 5 counties. Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Orange and Hillsborough. 

My zip code has 13 cases, and my neighborhood still has none.

In Illinois today, 64 percent of the cases are in ONE county - Crook.

My zip code has 231 cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 22, 2020, 11:03:25 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 22, 2020, 10:50:49 AM
I wasn't disagreeing with CD. I was clarifying.

The tests aren't reliable for predicting whether YOU have antibodies if YOU get a positive result. But that's not a problem with the test, it's a problem with having such a low prevalence of antibodies in the population that you can't be sure whether your test was a real positive or a false positive.

Think of it this way:

Prevalence: 1% of the population has antibodies
Test A: 5% false positive rate: You will get about 6% actual positive result from the test. Which means for any individual person who tests positive, they have only a 17% likelihood that they actually have antibodies.
Test B: 1% false positive rate: You will get about a 2% actual positive results from the test. Which means for any individual person who tests positive, they only have an 50% chance that they actually have antibodies.

Prevalence: 5% of the population has antibodies

Test A: 5% false positive rate: You will get about 10% actual positive result from the test. Which means for any individual person who tests positive, they have only a 50% likelihood that they actually have antibodies.
Test B: 1% false positive rate: You will get about a 6% actual positive results from the test. Which means for any individual person who tests positive, they only have an 83% chance that they actually have antibodies.

Prevalence: 50% of the population has antibodies

Test A: 5% false positive rate: You will get about 55% actual positive result from the test. Which means for any individual person who tests positive, they have only a 91% likelihood that they actually have antibodies.
Test B: 1% false positive rate: You will get about a 51% actual positive results from the test. Which means for any individual person who tests positive, they only have an 98% chance that they actually have antibodies.

So the key is that even for a very accurate test, and I think most antibody tests are around the specificity of Test B in the above scenarios, the actual predictive power of a GOOD test depends highly on the prevalence of the condition you're testing for, and the prevalence is too low right now to give as much predictive power as we would like.

(Note above: those numbers aren't perfect, because I didn't take into account the fact that a false positive rate only affects the non-positive folks (i.e. 5% false positive when you have 50% prevalence should only give you 52.5% actual positive rate, because you can only get false positives on the folks who aren't true positives (5% * 50% = 2.5%). However I left those out because I didn't want to mess with the false negative rate, which also has to be taken into account.)


Everyone should get tested, and everyone should do it multiple times.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 22, 2020, 11:04:25 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 22, 2020, 10:54:36 AM
Looking at Florida today, 60 percent of the cases are in 5 counties. Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Orange and Hillsborough.

My zip code has 13 cases, and my neighborhood still has none.

In Illinois today, 64 percent of the cases are in ONE county - Crook.

My zip code has 231 cases.
Well those areas are where 60% or more of the states population live. 

South Florida, Tampa metro, and Greater Orlando have to have 60% or maybe even more of the states entire population.

A lot of Florida is nothing but swamp land and little redneck towns where almost nobody lives.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 22, 2020, 11:05:47 AM
and what will all this testing accomplish?

back in March when there wasn't nearly enough tests to meet demand, I was told if we had enough tests we would win this battle.  Testing was the key to flattening the curve.

Well, it seems there are ample tests and the curve seems to be on an uptick most places
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 22, 2020, 11:07:42 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 22, 2020, 11:04:25 AM
Well those areas are where 60% or more of the states population live.

South Florida, Tampa metro, and Greater Orlando have to have 60% or maybe even more of the states entire population.

A lot of Florida is nothing but swamp land and little redneck towns where almost nobody lives.
My point was mostly selfish, as it appears I'd be safer in my Florida home than I am here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 22, 2020, 11:07:50 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 22, 2020, 10:40:29 AM
I don't know what this means.  When I get tested, it's either accurate or it's not. 
I described it above. All tests have error. 

Let's assume a test has a 1% false positive rate and a 5% false negative rate, and we go to the ultimate extremes.

If a population has 0% infection, i.e. not a single case, and you test that entire population, you'll get a 1% positive rate. Obviously for those 1%, the test is inaccurate, because we already stipulated 0% infection.

If a population has a 100% infection rate, and you test that entire population, you'll get only a 95% positive rate. Obviously for the 5% that tested negative, the test is inaccurate, because we already stipulated 100% infection.

Those are the easy cases...

Now for the hard one. 

If a population has a 50% infection rate, you know that you'll get an extra 0.5% test result from the 1% false positive rate on the half of the people who aren't infected, and you'll lose 2.5% of your true positives for the false negative rate on the half of the people who ARE infected, so you should expect a 48% result when testing the entire population. 

If your population is 100,000 people, that means that you have 500 people for whom the positive result was inaccurate, and 2500 people for whom the negative result was inaccurate. 

You know 50,000 people have the infection and 50,000 don't, but 3,000 people got an inaccurate test result. And none of the people can say with 100% certainty whether they're in the group which had an accurate result or an inaccurate result. 

This is why we distinguish between the accuracy of a test, and its predictive power. A very accurate test can have low predictive power depending on prevalence of infection.

And it's MUCH more important in this case for false positives, because you don't want those 500 people to think they're invincible and can't get re-infected, because they don't realize they were never infected in the first place and have no immunity. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 22, 2020, 11:10:13 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 22, 2020, 11:05:47 AM
and what will all this testing accomplish?

back in March when there wasn't nearly enough tests to meet demand, I was told if we had enough tests we would win this battle.  Testing was the key to flattening the curve.

Well, it seems there are ample tests and the curve seems to be on an uptick most places
Testing doesn't flatten the curve. Social distancing and wearing a mask in public places flattens the curve. A lot of people are getting away from doing those things. That's the main problem right now, as I see it.

We have to be open for business, without a doubt. The lockdown about killed us by itself, which was China's intention for us and Europe. We cannot go on lockdown again, so people need to be smart.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 22, 2020, 11:12:18 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 22, 2020, 11:03:25 AM
Everyone should get tested, and everyone should do it multiple times.
I do think we'd learn a lot if we had much more antibody testing, and if it was repeated multiple times to weed out false positive/negative results and to track the change over time towards herd immunity.

But that's a blood test. I'm not volunteering for anyone to jab a swab into my brain for the PCR testing unless I have legitimate reason to think I've been exposed. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 22, 2020, 11:12:41 AM
so perhaps folks are a bit smarter if they have the test results?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 22, 2020, 11:19:22 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 22, 2020, 11:05:47 AM
and what will all this testing accomplish?

back in March when there wasn't nearly enough tests to meet demand, I was told if we had enough tests we would win this battle.  Testing was the key to flattening the curve.

Well, it seems there are ample tests and the curve seems to be on an uptick most places
When this started, we didn't have enough tests to find the infected individuals and perform contact tracing to test anyone we knew they came in contact with. That is a very important aspect of slowing the spread. That's how places like South Korea were able to manage it. 

Unfortunately I believe our infection rate is too high at this point for contact tracing to do all that much good, particularly as we've reopened. However as utee's pointed out, when you at least have a known point of potential spread (his hair stylist) who has a client list of known patrons, you can contact trace. Right now we're trying to figure out if we're in the same boat--one of the doctor's at my wife's practice might have exposure due to a doctor she shares an office with at her hospital position who tested positive, and is in quarantine. If she likewise shows symptoms or tests positive, my wife will need to get tested, and then likely so would I, even though we don't think my wife came into close enough contact with the doctor to get it. 


That said, I don't think even testing / contact tracing will completely stop the spread. South Korea has been seeing an uptick in new cases ever since they started reopening. Hopefully they'll at least be able to keep it minimal and not allow it to explode. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 22, 2020, 11:33:22 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 22, 2020, 11:05:47 AM
and what will all this testing accomplish?

back in March when there wasn't nearly enough tests to meet demand, I was told if we had enough tests we would win this battle.  Testing was the key to flattening the curve.

Well, it seems there are ample tests and the curve seems to be on an uptick most places
Here’s the thing, the coronavirus has become a fact a life. We aren’t going to beat this thing, it isn’t going to just go away. It’s here forever. We have to deal with and stop being a bunch of baby ass pussies and get on with normal life. 

It’ll likely be a part of human life forever. And the more it evolves and changes chances are it gets milder and milder. Typically when virus like this mutates it’s effects become weaker but more easily to spread. Makes sense. It’s evolving and adapting to ensure it’s survival. 

But the good news is it’s not as deadly to people as everyone in the media made it out to be, it’s a relatively mild disease that pretty much only kills old people and the immune-compromised. The vast majority of deaths in the US are people 85+. That demographic alone accounts for 31+% of all deaths. Then the 75-84 age bracket makes up 27.3% of all deaths. So basically 59% of all deaths are people 75+. Then the age bracket of 65-74 makes up 21.3% of all deaths in US. So 80% of all deaths are people 65 and older. And remember, 44% of all deaths in US were in nursing homes. The most socially isolated people in the f**ng country. 

If you’re 0-54 years old and healthy, your risk of dying from this is basically non-exstinent.

And the people that are 55-64 that are dying from this are the people in that unhealthy fat f***ks in that age group that are obese as shit and have other diseases like diabetes and heart disease.

This should be a wake up call for all people in this country to lose weight, eat healthy, regularly exercise, take vitamins and supplements, and get 7-8 hrs of sleep every night. You know, take care of yourself. 

And it should also be an indictment on nursing homes and people living too long. I’m sorry, I don’t want to live to 90 and drooling all over myself and shitting in diapers. I’d rather be dead. People are living too long in this country and around the world. There’s only so many natural resources to go around. Our overpopulation is destroying this planet. We need a good pandemic or two to wipe out those living too long and maybe another one that hits the 3rd world and countries like India and China and causes them to go sterile because those motherf***krs are overpopulating the earth and destroying this planet. Won’t be a human species left if we keep this shit up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 22, 2020, 11:37:07 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 22, 2020, 11:19:22 AM
When this started, we didn't have enough tests to find the infected individuals and perform contact tracing to test anyone we knew they came in contact with. That is a very important aspect of slowing the spread. That's how places like South Korea were able to manage it.

Unfortunately I believe our infection rate is too high at this point for contact tracing to do all that much good, particularly as we've reopened. However as utee's pointed out, when you at least have a known point of potential spread (his hair stylist) who has a client list of known patrons, you can contact trace. Right now we're trying to figure out if we're in the same boat--one of the doctor's at my wife's practice might have exposure due to a doctor she shares an office with at her hospital position who tested positive, and is in quarantine. If she likewise shows symptoms or tests positive, my wife will need to get tested, and then likely so would I, even though we don't think my wife came into close enough contact with the doctor to get it.


That said, I don't think even testing / contact tracing will completely stop the spread. South Korea has been seeing an uptick in new cases ever since they started reopening. Hopefully they'll at least be able to keep it minimal and not allow it to explode.

I honestly don't believe it matters.  With new increases in cases in places like South Korea and Germany, we have plenty of data that you can almost completely squash it, but the moment you start reopening, the spread resumes.  It's just too infectious.

Wear a mask, maintain as much distance as you can, and get on with your life.  This is where we are now.  The highest at-risk should stay completely clear of everyone, if they want to avoid the risk.  Otherwise, they're grown adults and can accept the risk if they'd prefer not to live in seclusion.  My parents, and my in-laws, are done with seclusion.  They're wearing masks, which my dad calls spit-catchers, and they're getting back out and about.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 22, 2020, 11:48:52 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 22, 2020, 10:54:36 AM
Looking at Florida today, 60 percent of the cases are in 5 counties. Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Orange and Hillsborough.

My zip code has 13 cases, and my neighborhood still has none.

In Illinois today, 64 percent of the cases are in ONE county - Crook.

My zip code has 231 cases.
Same where I am in Florida.  Treasure Coast about 30 miles north of Palm Beach.  
I read that the average age of the new cases is between 37-41 years old. I wonder what, if anything that says??

here in my area- people are out and about in droves- but we are almost all wearing masks and distancing.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 22, 2020, 11:55:40 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 22, 2020, 11:48:52 AM
Same where I am in Florida.  Treasure Coast about 30 miles north of Palm Beach. 
I read that the average age of the new cases is between 37-41 years old. I wonder what, if anything that says??

here in my area- people are out and about in droves- but we are almost all wearing masks and distancing. 
How many of those cases are severe? 

Its way easier to get tested, there are more tests and more places to get tested than ever before- and I know alooooot more people being tested just because they have a fever or cough now. My sister for example went and got tested just because she had a fever. Came back negative. 

So a lot more people are getting tested now than ever- which is great- which means there will be more and more positive tests- but how many of those positive tests are actually severe? If it’s in that 37-41 age group- my guess is very few. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 22, 2020, 12:05:30 PM
so, many more are being tested, many more are quarantining themselves and others they've been in contact with because of positive tests

at the same time many more folks are out and about.

with a positive test or negative test or w/o a test you can easily quarantine or wear a mask or whatever you think is prudent 

seems to me that with or w/o tests, with or w/o masks, this thing is going to run it's course w/o a vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 22, 2020, 12:07:30 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 22, 2020, 11:55:40 AM
How many of those cases are severe?

Its way easier to get tested, there are more tests and more places to get tested than ever before- and I know alooooot more people being tested just because they have a fever or cough now. My sister for example went and got tested just because she had a fever. Came back negative.

So a lot more people are getting tested now than ever- which is great- which means there will be more and more positive tests- but how many of those positive tests are actually severe? If it’s in that 37-41 age group- my guess is very few.
I don't know that it matters, because they can still spread it around to those who might be at more risk.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 22, 2020, 12:07:42 PM
In other news, I just walked down to CVS and got the first dose of shingles vaccine, get the second in 2-6 months.  I feel fine so far.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 22, 2020, 12:17:34 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 22, 2020, 10:54:36 AM
Looking at Florida today, 60 percent of the cases are in 5 counties. Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Orange and Hillsborough.

My zip code has 13 cases, and my neighborhood still has none.

Lol, well those are some pretty populated counties...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 22, 2020, 12:18:44 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 22, 2020, 12:05:30 PM
seems to me that with or w/o tests, with or w/o masks, this thing is going to run it's course w/o a vaccine.
yep. and the vaccine isn't coming any time soon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 22, 2020, 12:18:57 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 22, 2020, 11:05:47 AM
and what will all this testing accomplish?

back in March when there wasn't nearly enough tests to meet demand, I was told if we had enough tests we would win this battle.  Testing was the key to flattening the curve.

Well, it seems there are ample tests and the curve seems to be on an uptick most places
I'll never understand this mode of thinking.

If nothing else, MORE DATA IS BETTER THAN LESS DATA.  Can we just please agree on that?  How is this even a debate?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 22, 2020, 12:20:18 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 22, 2020, 12:18:44 PM
yep. and the vaccine isn't coming any time soon.
Not that it was ever a possibility...


I'm tired of half the country flogging the scientific community with a buggy whip and then throwing their hands up once a miracle doesn't happen.  Ignorant idiots.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 22, 2020, 12:21:26 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 22, 2020, 11:10:13 AM
 The lockdown about killed us by itself, which was China's intention for us and Europe. We cannot go on lockdown again, so people need to be smart.
Jesus F-ing Christ.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 22, 2020, 12:27:21 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 22, 2020, 12:18:57 PM
I'll never understand this mode of thinking.

If nothing else, MORE DATA IS BETTER THAN LESS DATA.  Can we just please agree on that?  How is this even a debate?
I can certainly agree that more data is better than less data


we have FAR more data today then we did in March

it doesn't seem to be of much help
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 22, 2020, 12:28:57 PM
SIOUX CITY -- The number of Woodbury County patients who have recovered from COVID-19 is continuing to outpace the county's newly reported infections.

During the last week, 174 people have recovered from the virus in the county, for a total of 2,582 recoveries to date, according to the Siouxland District Health Department. During that same time frame, only 43 people tested positive for the virus -- meaning that the number of infected individuals declined by 131.

Of the 3,066 people in the county who have tested positive for the virus in Woodbury County since March, only about 442 of them are currently dealing with an active virus, after taking the county's 42 deaths into account.


The criteria for recovery from the virus, as established by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, include not having had a fever for the past 72 hours (without the use of fever-alleviating medication), while other symptoms, like cough or shortness of breath, also improve. All this must happen no less than 10 days since symptoms first appeared.

Statewide, most of Iowa's known COVID-19-positive individuals have recovered from their infections. Of the 25,957 people who have tested positive for the virus since March, 16,058 are recovered, while 685 have died, according to IDPH data.

Nebraska's Department of Health and Human Services has reported a total of 17,810 cases as of Sunday evening. Of these, 11,776 are considered recovered, while 244 have died. Douglas County (the Omaha area) has represented the majority of the state's new infections reported in the past two weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 22, 2020, 12:35:31 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 22, 2020, 12:18:44 PM
yep. and the vaccine isn't coming any time soon.
If ever.

No policy decision we make, can be based on the idea that we'll ever have an effective vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 22, 2020, 12:37:41 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 22, 2020, 12:21:26 PM
Jesus F-ing Christ.
What world do you live in? Seriously. You strike me as someone who has never had to run a business or earn a living.

Do you realize that companies all over this country, large and small are shuttering their doors and laying off millions of people? The federal government did absolutely nothing to help ordinary people, and they did next to nothing to help small business. And in a lot of states- unemployment isn't so easy to file for or collect the checks. I know someone in Florida whose been on unemployment for 3 months and has only collected 2 of the checks.

Most banks allowed people to forego paying their mortgages for 3 months- but as soon as those 3 months were up these people who haven't been working were suddenly somehow suppose to pay their mortgage bill for those 3 months. And every municipality in the country put in stops on eviction orders- refused to even process them through the courts- but those have recently expired. You are about to see a mass apocalypse of evictions and foreclosures that will make the 2008-2009 financial crisis look like a walk in the park.

The economy was tanked and the government did next to nothing to put stop gaps in place to avoid the collapse. Another shutdown ABSOLUTELY is out of the question and cannot happen. It will destroy this country.

THIS THING IS NOT THAT F$%KING BAD. Stop being a god damn pussy. Are you 65+? Because if you're not your chance of dying from this thing is basically ZERO. It's so god damn miniscule it's not even worth worrying about it.

Look at the stats- 80% of the deaths are people 65 and up. With a whopping 31+% of that 80% being people EIGHTY FIVE and up. 44% of all deaths were in nursing homes. Average age of a nursing home patient is 80 years old. These are the most socially distanced, isolated people on earth. And they still died from this thing. That should tell you they were going to die from just about anything they caught- even the flu.


This disease is killing the old, the unhealthy, and the immunodeficient.

An economic depression that rivals the great depression hurts as all and destroys an entire generation of young people. All to save the old and unhealthy? Yeah, no thanks to that. Take care of your fat ass and lose weight, and sorry but not everyone gets to live forever. If you're 85 and up there- your quality of life sucks anyway-and that was 31+% of all deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 22, 2020, 12:38:14 PM
Some data I'd love to see, if reliable, is a truly rep sample testing of individuals for active virus, and also for antibodies.  I don't think we have reliable numbers for how many are currently infected/infectious, nor how many have been.

People who get tested often are feeling symptomatic.  That isn't a rep sample.  

I'd also like to know more about how long immunity can last and whether the virus is becoming less dangerous over time.

All that said, if you had given me the situation TODAY back in mid-March versus any possibility, I'd take what we have today.  Italy was looking scary.  Now it appears our hospitals can keep up.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 22, 2020, 12:42:24 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 22, 2020, 12:20:18 PM
Not that it was ever a possibility...


I'm tired of half the country flogging the scientific community with a buggy whip and then throwing their hands up once a miracle doesn't happen.  Ignorant idiots.
The ignorant idiots are those who think the "scientific community" is well, all that scientific. It's extremely political, it's extremely corrupted, and it's all tied to the universities- and Peter Thiel was dead on the money when he said the US university system is like the catholic church 500 years ago. It's probably more corrupt actually.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 22, 2020, 12:44:23 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 22, 2020, 12:07:30 PM
I don't know that it matters, because they can still spread it around to those who might be at more risk.

This is going to remain true for the foreseeable future, several years at least, and possibly forever if the virus never mutates down to something less harmful.  So the people at the highest risk are going to have to take measures to protect themselves.   Forever.

Unless they choose to assume the risk and live their lives.  Which IS their choice to make.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 22, 2020, 12:46:08 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 22, 2020, 12:44:23 PM
This is going to remain true for the foreseeable future, several years at least, and possibly forever if the virus never mutates down to something less harmful.  So the people at the highest risk are going to have to take measures to protect themselves.  Forever.

Unless they choose to assume the risk and live their lives.  Which IS their choice to make.
Exactly.

Why is that so hard to understand?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 22, 2020, 12:52:49 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 22, 2020, 12:37:41 PM
What world do you live in? Seriously. You strike me as someone who has never had to run a business or earn a living.

Do you realize that companies all over this country, large and small are shuttering their doors and laying off millions of people? The federal government did absolutely nothing to help ordinary people, and they did next to nothing to help small business. And in a lot of states- unemployment isn't so easy to file for or collect the checks. I know someone in Florida whose been on unemployment for 3 months and has only collected 2 of the checks.
I was a beneficiary of the PPP program, but the people it actually truly helped were my employees. We most certainly would have had to make cuts without that PPP money. 27 people kept their jobs, and their paychecks. And here in Illinois they'd still be waiting to be "processed" by the inept State government.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 22, 2020, 12:55:11 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 22, 2020, 12:20:18 PM
Not that it was ever a possibility...


I'm tired of half the country flogging the scientific community with a buggy whip and then throwing their hands up once a miracle doesn't happen.  Ignorant idiots.
We are on track to have a vaccine as early as October

Now that might not happen but what facts do you have to back up such pessimism

Its ok to have an opinion but again what do you actually know about the likelihood of developing a vaccine


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 22, 2020, 01:05:52 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 22, 2020, 12:52:49 PM
I was a beneficiary of the PPP program, but the people it actually truly helped were my employees. We most certainly would have had to make cuts without that PPP money. 27 people kept their jobs, and their paychecks. And here in Illinois they'd still be waiting to be "processed" by the inept State government.
This is pretty much the only thing they did to help small business, and some sba EIDL loans. But they did not to enough in my opinion. New business is the engine of growth, and almost all new businesses are....small businesses. Big business and the very rich, as usual got saved. Small business got thrown a bone, and the ordinary everyday working folk got boned pretty hard.

The greatest transfer of wealth in US history was just pulled off, and if there is another shutdown I don't think this country will ever recover. An entire generation of young people will be screwed over, and America is already a country that it's eats young at the expense of the old. Would hate to see it basically kill it's young with another shutdown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 22, 2020, 01:15:45 PM
The PPP was of no help to me, personally. I and another partner had to take a pretty big pay cut, as the program only allows a person to be paid so much, no matter their position.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 22, 2020, 01:30:04 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 22, 2020, 12:07:42 PM
In other news, I just walked down to CVS and got the first dose of shingles vaccine, get the second in 2-6 months.  I feel fine so far.
Insurance won't cover me for that, because I'm not yet 50. 

Yet I got shingles basically for my 40th birthday (almost 2 yrs ago now) so I'd really like to get the vaccine to prevent re-occurrence. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 22, 2020, 01:35:15 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 22, 2020, 01:30:04 PM
Insurance won't cover me for that, because I'm not yet 50.

Yet I got shingles basically for my 40th birthday (almost 2 yrs ago now) so I'd really like to get the vaccine to prevent re-occurrence.
You can appeal to the insurance company. It would help to have a letter from an MD when doing so. Do you know the total tally on what was spent (by you and insurance) to get you through it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 22, 2020, 01:57:14 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 22, 2020, 01:35:15 PM
You can appeal to the insurance company. It would help to have a letter from an MD when doing so. Do you know the total tally on what was spent (by you and insurance) to get you through it?
Not much, thankfully it was a *very* mild case. Some antibiotics and antifungals taken in concert and it went away. 

I've just heard enough horror stories that I don't want to face a severe case if I can avoid it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 22, 2020, 02:00:31 PM
I'd appeal, based on your history. Blue Cross?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 22, 2020, 02:03:36 PM
2 positive tests for Badger football announced today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 22, 2020, 02:07:33 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 22, 2020, 02:00:31 PM
I'd appeal, based on your history. Blue Cross?
Yes.

I'll talk it over with the doc when I have my physical this year. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 22, 2020, 02:30:08 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 22, 2020, 02:03:36 PM
2 positive tests for Badger football announced today.
Have them throw a COVID party, and your whole team will be done by mid July, ready for kickoff in September!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 22, 2020, 05:31:47 PM
One thing that occurs to me that is, in my experience, the handful of tough problems I looked into in depth had no simple one dimensional solutions.  Simple solutions are appealing of course, one can claim "IF only X had done Y in time this would have been avoided", but I think that rarely is true.  Part of this is the lack of reliable facts in many cases of course.  Part of it is that if something has a simple solution it is usually implemented, and resolved, before it becomes very "newsworthy".

I think this applies to the viral outbreak, the police situation, racism, climate change, the national debt, the problem with politics, you name it.  I doubt there are simple solutions despite what various Facebook memes might lead one to believe.

I was chatting with someone about the Convention of the States as a means to pass Congressional term limits, and I pointed out some of the vagaries and latitudes such a convention could in fact take.  It sounds like a nice simple solution, but probably would be nothing like that.

And even then term limits might not solve much of anything either...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 22, 2020, 05:46:43 PM
just change names and faces
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 22, 2020, 05:57:04 PM
A Convention of the States could easily turn into something rather scary.  The limits and procedures on such a thing are left very very vague in the Constitution.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 22, 2020, 06:00:01 PM

I think it would be fun to see that portion of the Constitution at work, though.   I'm scary that way. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 22, 2020, 06:02:35 PM
"FUN" = "VERY SCARY".  There are almost no limits on what could happen in a CotS.

Of course, one might think the Great Thinkers and Political Giants of today are better than what we had in 1787.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 22, 2020, 06:26:02 PM
One might think that.  I certainly don't...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 22, 2020, 06:28:51 PM
Just remember, the Constitutional Convention was supposed to tweak the Articles of Confederation, and completely rewrote it in a way that pissed off a LOT of people. 

I suppose a convention of the states would do the same. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 22, 2020, 06:38:51 PM
Looking at the numbers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0GFRcFm-aY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0GFRcFm-aY)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 22, 2020, 06:40:44 PM
Eh, I was told 4 months ago that 2-3 million Americans were surely going to die.  We're a far cry from that so I guess we're doing alright.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 22, 2020, 06:53:27 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 22, 2020, 06:40:44 PM
Eh, I was told 4 months ago that 2-3 million Americans were surely going to die.  We're a far cry from that so I guess we're doing alright.
Yeah, in the sense that if I threaten to amputate your leg but only settle for two toes, we're doing alright...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 22, 2020, 07:02:53 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 22, 2020, 06:53:27 PM
Yeah, in the sense that if I threaten to amputate your leg but only settle for two toes, we're doing alright...
I don't believe there's really anything at all we can do to alter the area under the curve, so I think we're doing no better nor worse than we would under any other circumstances, to be honest.

Areas that went on hard lock-downs early, didn't eradicate this thing and they're seeing case rates increase as they open up.  At this point I view this as inevitable.  

So the fact that it turns out the virus isn't going to be lethal enough to kill 2-3 million Americans, is about the best news we can expect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 22, 2020, 07:23:11 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 22, 2020, 07:02:53 PM
So the fact that it turns out the virus isn't going to be lethal enough to kill 2-3 million Americans, is about the best news we can expect.
I think north of 1M is certainly plausible, and 2-3M isn't out of the question depending on whether or not we find a solid treatment or a vaccine...

Remember, with 2.39M known cases we're still at a case fatality rate over 5%. Obviously the real number is lower than that because we need to figure out mild/asymptomatic cases and how big they are. Maybe the difference is 5x. Maybe it's 10x. Maybe it's 20x. We don't know, and thus figuring out the real infection fatality rate is hard.

But left to rip through the bulk of [un-immune] America, to think that 2M is out of the question doesn't make sense. Do you have reason to believe that if the infection rates soar over the next 12-18 months without a vaccine, that 2M is an absurd number?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 22, 2020, 08:03:58 PM
One of the things Texas has started doing is testing all new hospitalized patients for the virus

If they test positive they are listed as a hospitalized virus patient no matter why they were there in the first place

this might explain why Texas is trending up in hospitalized virus cases

dont know if other states also do this

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 22, 2020, 08:08:45 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 22, 2020, 07:23:11 PM
I think north of 1M is certainly plausible, and 2-3M isn't out of the question depending on whether or not we find a solid treatment or a vaccine...

Remember, with 2.39M known cases we're still at a case fatality rate over 5%. Obviously the real number is lower than that because we need to figure out mild/asymptomatic cases and how big they are. Maybe the difference is 5x. Maybe it's 10x. Maybe it's 20x. We don't know, and thus figuring out the real infection fatality rate is hard.

But left to rip through the bulk of [un-immune] America, to think that 2M is out of the question doesn't make sense. Do you have reason to believe that if the infection rates soar over the next 12-18 months without a vaccine, that 2M is an absurd number?

If it rips through every nursing home in America then 1M-2M could certainly happen.  

I don't believe it will, and so I don't believe it's going to hit those numbers. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 22, 2020, 08:37:35 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 22, 2020, 08:08:45 PM
If it rips through every nursing home in America then 1M-2M could certainly happen. 

I don't believe it will, and so I don't believe it's going to hit those numbers.
This.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 22, 2020, 08:52:40 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 22, 2020, 08:08:45 PM
If it rips through every nursing home in America then 1M-2M could certainly happen. 

I don't believe it will, and so I don't believe it's going to hit those numbers.

We'd have to all get nakid and sit on each others laps to reach 1M dead
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on June 23, 2020, 12:48:26 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 22, 2020, 07:23:11 PM
I think north of 1M is certainly plausible, and 2-3M isn't out of the question depending on whether or not we find a solid treatment or a vaccine...

Remember, with 2.39M known cases we're still at a case fatality rate over 5%. Obviously the real number is lower than that because we need to figure out mild/asymptomatic cases and how big they are. Maybe the difference is 5x. Maybe it's 10x. Maybe it's 20x. We don't know, and thus figuring out the real infection fatality rate is hard.

But left to rip through the bulk of [un-immune] America, to think that 2M is out of the question doesn't make sense. Do you have reason to believe that if the infection rates soar over the next 12-18 months without a vaccine, that 2M is an absurd number?
When on March 29, 2020, DJT said if we can hold that down to 100,000 people die from COVID-19 in the U.S. we would have done a very good job.  It is one of the few times I thought he is right and was now thinking coherently.

We have not done a good job, as a country, or as individuals in this country. I could do better. I wear masks into the grocery store, and convenience store, but I have done too little mask wearing when I meet people. I occasionally wear masks at my law office, especially when I get a tip someone was exposed to someone who was positive. I have offered masks to others, here. I try to do most meetings with clients by phone conference. But I could do better.

The projections are that without a virus vaccine this will not peter-out until 60-70% are infected. If the 5% fatality rate holds true, and if that is 5% of persons tested, let's see. 330 million Americans, 65% infected 5% fatality rate, but only half of those infected are tested. We have 5,362,500 deaths in that hypothetical, if there is no vaccine. I have an uneasiness with masks. But their use is the principled and courteous thing that will help stop a pandemic, and would stop it if we had 80% compliance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 23, 2020, 03:48:20 AM
So.....I see the naysayers are part of a certain tribe.  Way to keep it respectable, guys.  I'm all done labeling your behavior or name-calling...you are who you are.  Oh well.


Anyhow, Trump's paying us a visit next, here in AZ.  And why not ...
(https://i.imgur.com/SBoaci1.png)
My personal input is there in blue, of course.  
I guess this thing isn't going away with hot temps, huh?  So that guessing game didn't pan out.
The myth here isn't that 1-2 million deaths is probable, it's that this is a second wave.  No, it's a continuation of the initial wave, because we never allowed that to subside.  

Also, the masses are mindless sheep - and THAT is why it's irresponsible to downplay the virus or open up a state.  The masses will blindly believe all is well and go out into the world, back to work, and interact with all the germs, just as they had before.  And that's how the above graph happens.  3,000+ new cases PER DAY.

And before you say, "yeah, but that's just cases" - STOP.  Our hospitals are full.  We are fucked.  Yes, I said "we," despite not being 83 years old in a nursing home...because those lives aren't worth any less than mine is.  And fuck anyone downplaying their deaths.

People are waiting in lines to be tested for 10+ hours in the SW area (the poor, hispanic area).  


Now who wants to visit ole OAM?!?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 23, 2020, 04:18:17 AM
Georgia opened April 23, and the upswing didn't happen until the past few days, which one could ascribe to other factors than just reopening.

But, I realize simplistic explanations are satisfying if they comport with one's political views.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 23, 2020, 06:30:03 AM
And of course as is often the case, there can be facts available one has to ignore to keep to the preferred theme.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/22/881703745/california-hits-new-high-in-covid-19-hospitalizations (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/22/881703745/california-hits-new-high-in-covid-19-hospitalizations)

One COULD claim this is due to the protests of course.  I don't because I'm aware I don't have the data needed to form that conclusion, nor the conclusion that states should have stayed completely shuttered because of COVID.

It is consistent with what we know to hypothesize that every state is going to experience the same "area under the curve", NY/NJ got hit earliest and hardest and now are recovering.  I don't know if this is partial herd immunity kicking in or whether all the stay at home was effective.  NY is reopening now, so perhaps we'll know in 2-3 weeks.

The EU countries are reopening now as well.  And I'd note that Sweden is not a complete basket case, their choice may not have been ideal of course, but they have not gotten worse than several other EU countries.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 23, 2020, 08:12:17 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 23, 2020, 03:48:20 AM
And before you say, "yeah, but that's just cases" - STOP.  Our hospitals are full.  We are fucked.  
Except that they are not full.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/arizona

 (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/arizona)Nor are they ever projected to be full.

I just went on the CVS website - I searched around 85042 zip code. There are several appointments available today. They take people every ten minutes. You swab yourself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 23, 2020, 09:03:02 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 23, 2020, 03:48:20 AM
So.....I see the naysayers are part of a certain tribe.  Way to keep it respectable, guys.  I'm all done labeling your behavior or name-calling...you are who you are.  Oh well.


Anyhow, Trump's paying us a visit next, here in AZ.  And why not ...




Now who wants to visit ole OAM?!?
apparently, your buddy Trump wants to visit.  Perhaps change your way of thinking?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 23, 2020, 09:14:22 AM
Lulz now that would be a sight to behold.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 23, 2020, 09:15:52 AM
There are three ways to "analyze" this:

1.  Start with the premise it has the be awful, for political reasons, and search for whatever you can cherry pick to support that conclusion.

2.  Start with the premise this has to be not really bad at all and we over reacted, and search for whatever you can ...

3.  Try and analyze what is happening without any bias or pre-conclusions going in, this is a lot harder.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 23, 2020, 09:17:35 AM
Quote from: utee94 on June 23, 2020, 09:14:22 AM
Lulz now that would be a sight to behold.
Trump?Or his way of thinking? 😎
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 23, 2020, 09:23:15 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 23, 2020, 09:15:52 AM
There are three ways to "analyze" this:

1.  Start with the premise it has the be awful, for political reasons, and search for whatever you can cherry pick to support that conclusion.

2.  Start with the premise this has to be not really bad at all and we over reacted, and search for whatever you can ...

3.  Try and analyze what is happening without any bias or pre-conclusions going in, this is a lot harder.
I'll go with option 3, thank you.

The problem I see is that as we open, people forget this thing is still here and is not going away.

People still need to wear a mask in public, and many aren't. People still need to keep a safe distance, and they aren't. People need to get tested (both tests), and they aren't.

These are 3 (4) easy things to do. I don't get why people can't just follow along for a while longer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 23, 2020, 09:42:26 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 23, 2020, 09:17:35 AM
Trump?Or his way of thinking? 😎
The thought of OAM at a Trump rally, is what I was remarking upon, as a "sight to behold." :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 23, 2020, 09:43:57 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 23, 2020, 09:17:35 AM
Trump?Or his way of thinking? 😎
orange on orange
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 23, 2020, 09:56:37 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 23, 2020, 09:43:57 AM
orange on orange crime
FIFY
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 23, 2020, 09:57:20 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/4PB40R9.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 23, 2020, 10:17:26 AM
I read yesterday that a single gathering at a bar in the UCF of Orlando area led to 150 new cases - college kids.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 23, 2020, 10:28:59 AM
Wasn't you 1%ers down at the harbor? :party0036:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 23, 2020, 10:33:43 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 23, 2020, 10:28:59 AM
Wasn't you 1%ers down at the harbor? :party0036:
We kept our distance and washed our hands a lot, and it was really hot and humid outside. None of us want to be exposed. We're all pretty smart people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 23, 2020, 10:59:04 AM
as far as you know
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on June 23, 2020, 12:21:11 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 22, 2020, 07:23:11 PM
I think north of 1M is certainly plausible, and 2-3M isn't out of the question depending on whether or not we find a solid treatment or a vaccine...

Remember, with 2.39M known cases we're still at a case fatality rate over 5%. Obviously the real number is lower than that because we need to figure out mild/asymptomatic cases and how big they are. Maybe the difference is 5x. Maybe it's 10x. Maybe it's 20x. We don't know, and thus figuring out the real infection fatality rate is hard.

But left to rip through the bulk of [un-immune] America, to think that 2M is out of the question doesn't make sense. Do you have reason to believe that if the infection rates soar over the next 12-18 months without a vaccine, that 2M is an absurd number?
This 5% rate may be true, but it is a false data point. Unless it has change in the last two weeks over 42% of deaths were associated with nursing homes (see Forbes article I posted then). 


Overall the statistics show that it is a bad flu season except for this class of people. Isolate those class of people and put in proper controls there and this too will pass
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on June 23, 2020, 12:24:22 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 23, 2020, 03:48:20 AM
So.....I see the naysayers are part of a certain tribe.  Way to keep it respectable, guys.  I'm all done labeling your behavior or name-calling...you are who you are.  Oh well.


Anyhow, Trump's paying us a visit next, here in AZ.  And why not ...
(https://i.imgur.com/SBoaci1.png)
My personal input is there in blue, of course. 
I guess this thing isn't going away with hot temps, huh?  So that guessing game didn't pan out.
The myth here isn't that 1-2 million deaths is probable, it's that this is a second wave.  No, it's a continuation of the initial wave, because we never allowed that to subside. 

Also, the masses are mindless sheep - and THAT is why it's irresponsible to downplay the virus or open up a state.  The masses will blindly believe all is well and go out into the world, back to work, and interact with all the germs, just as they had before.  And that's how the above graph happens.  3,000+ new cases PER DAY.

And before you say, "yeah, but that's just cases" - STOP.  Our hospitals are full.  We are fucked.  Yes, I said "we," despite not being 83 years old in a nursing home...because those lives aren't worth any less than mine is.  And fuck anyone downplaying their deaths.

People are waiting in lines to be tested for 10+ hours in the SW area (the poor, hispanic area). 


Now who wants to visit ole OAM?!?
First, we can protect the nursing home people with draconian measure and should be doing everything to protect them. And yes we will continue interacting with germs, live people have done for the existence of humanity. I am not convinced by the "experts" and have been convinced by data analysis that this virus is not the bubonic plague.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 23, 2020, 12:33:16 PM
Report Suggests Some ‘Mildly Symptomatic’ Covid-19 Patients Endure Serious Long-Term Effects (https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2020/06/13/report-suggests-some-mildly-symptomatic-covid-19-patients-endure-serious-long-term-effects/#3a23262f5979)


Quote
However, the rapid recovery has not been the experience of thousands - perhaps tens of thousands - of patients worldwide who’ve been classified as mild cases. Many struggle for months with lingering Covid-19 symptoms that can be debilitating. They exhibit shortness of breath, extreme fatigue, intermittent fevers, cough, concentration issues, chest pressure, headaches, and heart palpitations, among other symptoms. The literature has a name for them: “long-haulers (https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/06/covid-19-coronavirus-longterm-symptoms-months/612679/).”

In the Netherlands (https://nos.nl/artikel/2337012-longfonds-ernstige-klachten-onder-coronapatienten-die-thuis-herstelden.html), the Lung Foundation, together with the University of Maastricht and the CIRO group,* surveyed 1,622 Covid-19 patients who had reported a number of long-term effects from their illness. Ninety-one percent of the patients were not hospitalized, which indicates that the vast majority of the surveyed patients would fall under the category “mildly symptomatic.” The average age of the patients surveyed was 53.

Nearly 88% of patients reported persistent intense fatigue, while almost three out of four had continued shortness of breath. Other enduring symptoms included, among other things, chest pressure (45% of patients), headache and muscle ache (40% and 36%, respectively), elevated pulse (30%), and dizziness (29%). Perhaps the most startling finding was that 85% of the surveyed patients considered themselves healthy prior to getting Covid-19. One or more months after getting the disease, only 6% consider themselves healthy.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 23, 2020, 12:35:54 PM
hah, you get to be 53 years old and you're going to have some of those issues
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 23, 2020, 12:47:57 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on June 23, 2020, 12:21:11 PM
This 5% rate may be true, but it is a false data point. Unless it has change in the last two weeks over 42% of deaths were associated with nursing homes (see Forbes article I posted then).


Overall the statistics show that it is a bad flu season except for this class of people. Isolate those class of people and put in proper controls there and this too will pass
I think this keeps getting stated, but I'm not sure it's true at all. 

Remember, the flu ALSO disproportionately kills the old and those with comorbid health factors. So if you want to figure out how this affects "a class of people" relative to the flu, you have to factor that in. 

For example, I'm 41 years old, healthy, with no known heart or respiratory issues. My risk of mortality to the flu is extremely low. Much lower than the typical flu mortality rates in the 0.10-0.15% range. Because that 0.10-0.15% range for the flu includes the much more severely affected populations.

I suspect, although I don't have the data to back this up, that COVID-19 is significantly higher mortality for people in the "low-risk" age/health groups than the flu. That doesn't mean it's high, but let's not act like this is "just like the flu". 

This thing has already killed 2x as many people in the US than the worst flu season in the last decade, and is rapidly approaching 4x the annual average. 

So even with the data point that 42% of deaths were nursing homes, that still leaves more deaths than the worst flu season in the last decade.

If you take the data point that's been bandied about here that ~80% of all deaths are in people over 65, that still leaves ~25,000 deaths. The average flu season over the last decade is 37,000 deaths, and that includes people over 65, who account for between 70 and 85% of flu-related deaths as well (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/highrisk/65over.htm#:~:text=In recent years%2C for example,people in this age group.).

So if you assume an average of 37,000 flu deaths per year, and the low end of 70% of those deaths are above 65 years old, that leaves 11,100. If you take the worst flu season in the past decade of 61,000 deaths and extract out those over 65, that leaves 18,300.

So at 25,000 deaths to people under 65, we're already around 2.5x worse than a typical flu season, and around 1.5x as bad as the worst flu season in the last decade. And that's in the span of three months with infection rates not going away by any stretch.

This is not the flu!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 23, 2020, 01:01:35 PM
The 2 things that bother me most about this are:
1 - the apathy some of you have with the elderly being eviscerated by this thing
and
2 - the fact that the average person (the masses) aren't smart and won't take 0.00001% more of a precaution than they're told to by their elected officials.  And that's why we can blame mayors and governors (AZ & FL, especially) and presidents - they know the masses are stupid and don't overly protect them from themselves.


The U.S. is a giant preschool full of toddlers with guns and no one is taking the guns away, because they want to avoid the inevitable meltdown from the toddler.  And we call it freedom.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 23, 2020, 01:06:58 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 23, 2020, 12:47:57 PM
I think this keeps getting stated, but I'm not sure it's true at all.

Remember, the flu ALSO disproportionately kills the old and those with comorbid health factors. So if you want to figure out how this affects "a class of people" relative to the flu, you have to factor that in.



This is not the flu!
I agree with your entire post, but remember that we don't have a vaccine yet.
We do have a flu vaccine

CDC conducts studies each year to determine how well the influenza (flu) vaccine protects against flu illness. While vaccine effectiveness (VE) can vary, recent studies show that flu vaccination reduces the risk of flu illness by between 40% and 60% among the overall population during seasons when most circulating flu viruses are well-matched to the flu vaccine. In general, current flu vaccines tend to work better against influenza B and influenza A(H1N1) viruses and offer lower protection against influenza A(H3N2) viruses.

the numbers might be closer if we didn't have a flu vaccine.  
That said, THIS IS NOT THE FLU
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 23, 2020, 01:25:35 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 23, 2020, 01:01:35 PM
The 2 things that bother me most about this are:
1 - the apathy some of you have with the elderly being eviscerated by this thing
and
2 - the fact that the average person (the masses) aren't smart and won't take 0.00001% more of a precaution than they're told to by their elected officials.  And that's why we can blame mayors and governors (AZ & FL, especially) and presidents - they know the masses are stupid and don't overly protect them from themselves.


The U.S. is a giant preschool full of toddlers with guns and no one is taking the guns away, because they want to avoid the inevitable meltdown from the toddler.  And we call it freedom.
How do you feel about the governor of New York? He sentenced a lot of older people to death by returning them to their nursing homes. Of course, he's a superstar on TV every day (Is he still on every day??).

Why are AZ and FL different than anywhere else? They opened their economies, just as everyone else is doing. Some did it earlier than others, as they were showing good numbers. Some are doing very well, like Wisconsin, which hasn't spiked since the State's Supreme Court struck down the Governor's order on May 13. Maybe that should be more talked about - how they are doing it??

The economy HAS TO BE OPEN. Not all of us are on the government tit, and can stay at home forever without worry of being paid. I don't think you get this part - at all. The drug use, the drinking, the depression and the suicides have taken root with this thing. People need to get out and get to work, period. Just do it smart, is all I ask - like Wisconsin.

Will the Illinois governor be an asshole when (not if) the state spikes again? I see more and more people around here not wearing masks. Dining in, gyms, trails, etc. are all gonna open on Friday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 23, 2020, 01:33:12 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 23, 2020, 01:01:35 PM
The 2 things that bother me most about this are:
1 - the apathy some of you have with the elderly being eviscerated by this thing
and
2 - the fact that the average person (the masses) aren't smart and won't take 0.00001% more of a precaution than they're told to by their elected officials.  And that's why we can blame mayors and governors (AZ & FL, especially) and presidents - they know the masses are stupid and don't overly protect them from themselves.


The U.S. is a giant preschool full of toddlers with guns and no one is taking the guns away, because they want to avoid the inevitable meltdown from the toddler.  And we call it freedom.
I don’t see it as apathy.  I think everyone agrees- that sucks, especially when they think about people in their own lives like parents or neighbors.  They just believe that it is substantially more damaging to the health, wellbeing of the majority to to shut down the world as opposed to try to manage this situation, accepting that you can’t eradicate it completely- as best we can. 
as for the guns- sure, like everything else there are idiots who own them.
But there is a reason it is protected- and is in fact the second amendment. 
So peace loving people, like me, can at least try to defend ourselves from the toddlers running around destroying property, causing chaos and anarchy, and chastising you or sometimes beating you if your exercise of the first amendment does not agree with theirs. That’s why sales of guns have skyrocketed/ people have TVs and can see for themselves what is happening.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 23, 2020, 01:39:59 PM
It seems ironic to excoriate people for apathy for the elderly and then excoriate the masses.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 23, 2020, 01:43:17 PM
Just to clarify, let's make some comparisons with the flu...



So we have something that's more contagious than the flu, carries higher mortality than the flu, and a population that has NO defense against it. 

In 3 months, it's infected 2.4M people (known) and killed twice as many as the worst flu season in the last decade, and at least 50% more than the worst flu season in the last decade in people under 65. 

Even if you assume a 10x difference between confirmed cases and actual infection/antibody rate (likely much too high), that leaves over 300M people in this nation alone who are not immune, infected, or recovered. That's a green field for potential infection that absolutely doesn't exist with the flu. 


So our response to this NATURALLY should be completely different than to the flu. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 23, 2020, 01:46:23 PM
I don't agree either with saying "this is just a bad flu season".

Now, how best to reduce area under the curve?  The early fear was hospitals would be inundated.  We seem to be past that (if we don't catch it now).



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 23, 2020, 01:50:22 PM
Some early fears back in March:

1.  Mortality rate is 3.4%.  It is probably nearer 1%.
2.  Not enough testing.  It's far from clear that more testing earlier would have helped.
3.  Not enough hospital beds.
4.  Not enough intubators.
5.  Not enough medications to allow intubations.
6.  Medical providers would contract this in droves and go down.

"We" have passed those fears, for now anyway, none of them materialized except testing was delayed by a CDC mishap.

Now folks think governors should reshut their economies?  Really?  I don't.  I think that criticism is largely political and ignores what has happened with governors of the other party and their states.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 23, 2020, 01:52:55 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 23, 2020, 01:50:22 PM
1.  Mortality rate is 3.4%.  It is probably nearer 1%.
That was always taken out of context. 

In an apples to apples comparison to THAT number, the reality is worse--CFR in the US is over 5%. 

IFR is probably somewhere in the realm of 0.5-1%. But that's not the rate the WHO director was quoting, and everyone knows [or should know] it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 23, 2020, 02:03:21 PM
It was an early fear.  It got my attention at least, even if I wasn't sure it was right.  Even 2% would lead to some horrific figures.

My point is those early fears have been navigated.  Let's not bring them back unless this thing takes off like crazy.

We know more now, we still don't know enough IMHO.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 23, 2020, 02:37:48 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 23, 2020, 01:01:35 PM
The 2 things that bother me most about this are:
1 - the apathy some of you have with the elderly being eviscerated by this thing
and
2 - the fact that the average person (the masses) aren't smart and won't take 0.00001% more of a precaution than they're told to by their elected officials.  
are the elderly being "eviscerated"

we know a very high percentage of deaths are elderly, but what percent of folks over the age of 70 have died?  10%, 20%, 5%???  I don't know.. just asking

elderly housing / retirement and nursing homes that were infected were eviscerated.  This I can agree with.

as has been encouraged by almost everyone on this thread, the elderly need to been very careful and take all precautions.  This is not apathy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 23, 2020, 02:46:25 PM
n the United States, the population age 65 and over numbered 49.2 million in 2016 (the most recent year for which data are available). They represented 15.2% of the population, about one in every seven Americans.

If we use round numbers, 100,000 deaths perhaps out of almost 50 million people over 65.  Percentagewise ....

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 23, 2020, 02:58:58 PM
less than a half of a percent?

so, if you're not living in a care facility.  Chances are, you're pretty safe
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 23, 2020, 03:12:51 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 23, 2020, 01:25:35 PM

The economy HAS TO BE OPEN. Not all of us are on the government tit, and can stay at home forever without worry of being paid. I don't think you get this part - at all. The drug use, the drinking, the depression and the suicides have taken root with this thing. People need to get out and get to work, period. Just do it smart, is all I ask - like Wisconsin.
AMEN - In another year or two things could degenerate into the wild west.With Amazon/UPS Delivery Vans being the new stage coaches,people are hurting and what is coming will cause alot more Death/Destruction than we've yet seen - I hope it doesn't go there.But your right there are too many pigs for the tits
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 23, 2020, 03:15:31 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 23, 2020, 02:58:58 PM
less than a half of a percent?

so, if you're not living in a care facility.  Chances are, you're pretty safe
We have a confirmed COVID-19 case rate in this country of 2.4M cases in 330M inhabitants, or pretty close to a 0.66% confirmed infection rate.

65+ comprises 20.3% of all COVID-19 cases (https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics), so there have been about 487,000 seniors infected. 

Amongst seniors, that means about 1% of seniors have been infected and 0.2% of seniors have died... 20%. 

Yeah... "Pretty safe" isn't what I take away from that. 

Nor do I want to see what happens if the other 49.5M seniors are infected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 23, 2020, 03:50:52 PM
I certainly don't want the other 50 million seniors infected.

I think it's terribly negligent that so many nursing homes were infected.

the seniors should absolutely be protected as much as possible.  I know folks are not being safe enough regarding seniors.

My friend lives with and cares for his 94 year old father.  He's not nearly safe enough.  I tell him this weekly.  He's at the golf course with me 3 to 4 times a week.  He sits in the bar next to me on Saturday mornings.  He goes to the grocery store for food and medicine.  He has two brothers that live within 1 miles.  They should be bringing food and medicine to the door.

they don't seem to care, but his Father has been saying for 3 or 4 years, that he doesn't want to live any longer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 23, 2020, 04:12:07 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 23, 2020, 01:39:59 PM
It seems ironic to excoriate people for apathy for the elderly and then excoriate the masses.
You're equating letting a population of people die with labeling a majority of people as stupid?  The masses are stupid, humanity has known that for thousands of years.  Whether you call them the mob, the masses, or voters, they lack the wherewithal to self-govern.  I guess that's what makes our police so essential, huh?  And leaders - a national leader, a state leader, a city leader, etc.  

If the masses didn't need protecting from themselves, the world would be a very different place.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 23, 2020, 04:19:55 PM
So you guys go from saying Cuomo is horrible for allowing all these nursing home deaths and mentioning how bad it is for them, but then turn around and emphasize how few of the elderly are actually dying from this thing.


That's called having it both ways, and it's not for respectable reasons. 




I'm just really frustrated at the selfish dolts not wearing masks.  I say that, and then I see a bunch of people driving around in their cars wearing masks........but it's wrong of me to say the masses are dumb.  Give me a break.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 23, 2020, 04:30:32 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 23, 2020, 04:19:55 PM
So you guys go from saying Cuomo is horrible for allowing all these nursing home deaths and mentioning how bad it is for them, but then turn around and emphasize how few of the elderly are actually dying from this thing.


That's called having it both ways, and it's not for respectable reasons. 




I'm just really frustrated at the selfish dolts not wearing masks.  I say that, and then I see a bunch of people driving around in their cars wearing masks........but it's wrong of me to say the masses are dumb.  Give me a break.
I'm the only one to bring it up. Nobody else here did, which is something they have in common with his assclown brother.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 23, 2020, 04:33:39 PM
I think there's a problem with calling nursing homes negligent.  People are in and out of those things constantly.  Cooks, nurses, doctors, therapists, janitorial staff, etc etc etc.

It's simply impossible to be 100% protective.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 23, 2020, 04:41:32 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 23, 2020, 04:33:39 PM
I think there's a problem with calling nursing homes negligent.  People are in and out of those things constantly.  Cooks, nurses, doctors, therapists, janitorial staff, etc etc etc.

It's simply impossible to be 100% protective.
Most of the nursing home I've experienced are really bad. REALLY bad. Dirty, stinky, infection-laden places. And that was before this.

If you want a good one, keep working hard because you're gonna need a lot of coin.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 23, 2020, 04:44:06 PM
my buddy is the maintenance man for 3 assisted living places here.  His wife is the hairdresser for the 3 facilities.

I agree that it's impossible to be 100% safe, but they have very strict procedures in place.  No infections to this date.

could it happen tomorrow?  sure, but they seem to be trying much harder than some places around the country.  Maybe they are simply lucky.

when the mayor or the governor or someone in charge, orders a facility to take infected patients in, that's negligent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 23, 2020, 04:50:18 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 23, 2020, 04:33:39 PM
I think there's a problem with calling nursing homes negligent.  People are in and out of those things constantly.  Cooks, nurses, doctors, therapists, janitorial staff, etc etc etc.

It's simply impossible to be 100% protective.
only the staff are allowed inside, no doctors, no outside nurses, no therapists, no hairdressers, no cleaning service

very hard for a resident to go out for even a hospital visit to get back in w/o a quarantine period

all staff coming in each shift are screened for fever.  Very limited staff.  Nurses are doing janitorial duties.
if a staff member goes to an event with more than immediate family, they are quarantined for 10 days, before allowed back inside.  No pay.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 23, 2020, 05:05:04 PM
There is no amount you could pay me to work in a nursing home. And the problems are mostly on the owners, because they do whatever they can to keep their costs to a bare minimum, including putting people at risk - both the inhabitants and the staff. It's terrible, and needs to be fixed.

At a minimum, they should be required to have daily sanitizing by a specialty company like ServePro or some such. They should be required to have a resident Nurse Practitioner with an MD on call. They should be required to have resident dental hygienists. They should be required to have resident OT and PT. Dieticians. Yes, it costs more, but in the long run it could cost less. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 23, 2020, 05:09:22 PM
Long Term Care Facilities in Iowa

Current Outbreaks (30)

Individuals Positive (891)

Total Recovered (550)

total Deaths (356)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 23, 2020, 05:18:48 PM
compared to overall in Iowa

Individuals Positive (26372)
Total Recovered (16615)
total Deaths (688)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 23, 2020, 05:35:06 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 23, 2020, 03:50:52 PM
the seniors should absolutely be protected as much as possible.  I know folks are not being safe enough regarding seniors.
I think folks are not being safe enough in general.

Everyone is all excited that things are re-opening, and want to forget that "opening" doesn't mean "normal."

We can't stay closed forever, but as I am trying to point out, there are tens of millions of seniors, and hundreds of millions of Americans, who haven't been infected with this virus and if we're not careful, hundreds of thousands more will die. That's not meant to be hyperbole.

We're at most 5-7% infection rates in this country, assuming high numbers of asymptomatic folks. We need to get to ~70% or more for herd immunity. That's a lot of people.

But people are behaving as if this thing has gone away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 23, 2020, 05:40:18 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 23, 2020, 04:44:06 PM
my buddy is the maintenance man for 3 assisted living places here.  His wife is the hairdresser for the 3 facilities.

I agree that it's impossible to be 100% safe, but they have very strict procedures in place.  No infections to this date.
An old friend runs kitchen/dining room at a retirement/nursing/PT Rehab Center - they are covid free but had a few non fatal cases.The PT Center is a an old remodeled hospital.Lots of patients in there
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 23, 2020, 06:07:59 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 23, 2020, 05:35:06 PM
I think folks are not being safe enough in general.

Everyone is all excited that things are re-opening, and want to forget that "opening" doesn't mean "normal."

We can't stay closed forever, but as I am trying to point out, there are tens of millions of seniors, and hundreds of millions of Americans, who haven't been infected with this virus and if we're not careful, hundreds of thousands more will die. That's not meant to be hyperbole.

We're at most 5-7% infection rates in this country, assuming high numbers of asymptomatic folks. We need to get to ~70% or more for herd immunity. That's a lot of people.

But people are behaving as if this thing has gone away.
You keep echoing me. I'm getting nervous.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 23, 2020, 10:01:25 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 22, 2020, 05:57:04 PM
A Convention of the States could easily turn into something rather scary.  The limits and procedures on such a thing are left very very vague in the Constitution.
Whatever a Convention of the States did, it would still require ratification of 3/4 of the states.  It's hard to amend the Constitution, by design.
Which is why activists look for extra-Constitutional ways to change it, whether by legislation or court rulings.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 23, 2020, 10:06:14 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 23, 2020, 09:17:35 AM
Trump?Or his way of thinking? 😎
His way of what???
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 24, 2020, 06:53:30 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 23, 2020, 10:01:25 PM
Whatever a Convention of the States did, it would still require ratification of 3/4 of the states.  It's hard to amend the Constitution, by design.
Which is why activists look for extra-Constitutional ways to change it, whether by legislation or court rulings.
Yes, that is the sole safe guard from something radical, but it could result in unintended consequences.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 24, 2020, 08:28:38 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 23, 2020, 04:30:32 PM
I'm the only one to bring it up. Nobody else here did, which is something they have in common with his assclown brother.
I’ve brought it up more than a couple times as well. 

Not only did that assclown Cuomo push an order requiring nursing homes to take people with COVID back, he then gave nursing homes immunity in the courts from any liability related to COVID. 

Why did he do this? Campaign donations. He’s a giant piece of shit, as is his doofus brother and CNN is a complete JOKE for letting Fredo have jokey laughing “interviews” with his older brother. Absolute clown show. Journalistic integrity much? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 24, 2020, 08:31:19 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 24, 2020, 08:28:38 AM
Not only did that assclown Cuomo push an order requiring nursing homes to take people with COVID back, he then gave nursing homes immunity in the courts from any liability related to COVID.
If this is all accurate they both should be caned then canned
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 24, 2020, 08:47:19 AM
I think the notion was that hospitals would be overrun, so take patients who are recovering and put them in nursing homes.  Bad idea.

Here they put 200 beds in the convention center, they were barely used, it that.  They did this in a lot of places and found they didn't need them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 24, 2020, 09:47:07 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 24, 2020, 08:47:19 AM
I think the notion was that hospitals would be overrun, so take patients who are recovering and put them in nursing homes.  Bad idea.

Here they put 200 beds in the convention center, they were barely used, it that.  They did this in a lot of places and found they didn't need them.
It was more than 200 beds. They also got a ship and 4,000,000 VENTILATORS VENTILATORS VENTILATORS VENTILATORS VENTILATORS VENTILATORS VENTILATORS!!!


Chicago got 1000 (originally wanted 3000) and Chicago has twice the number of hospital beds than NYC to start with (which is another story - why so few beds in NYC??).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 24, 2020, 11:31:57 AM
think he may have been referring to Atlanta convention center
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 24, 2020, 11:43:58 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 24, 2020, 11:31:57 AM
think he may have been referring to Atlanta convention center
Yeah, he changed subjects mid-post, which got me. Pain meds suck sometimes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 24, 2020, 11:44:16 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 24, 2020, 11:31:57 AM
think he may have been referring to Atlanta convention center
Yes, as in "here", meaning in Atlanta.  I could have been more clear.  I don't think the beds were used at all.  It dropped out of the news cycle.

It makes sense that recovering patients out of danger and needing only bed rest could be housed in such a facility and be checked on occasion at less cost than in a hospital.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 24, 2020, 11:45:01 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 24, 2020, 11:43:58 AM
Yeah, he changed subjects mid-post, which got me. Pain meds suck sometimes.
I did not change subjects, I was talking about fishing and how many knots there are with boating and how baseball is starting up without knots but some crazy rules and so forth.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 24, 2020, 11:49:51 AM
Florida looks to be out of control right now. People there really need to take this thing more serious, and be more careful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 24, 2020, 11:54:24 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-JA1ffd5Ms (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-JA1ffd5Ms)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 24, 2020, 11:59:16 AM
5500+ new cases today is out of control. 8.5% positive is out of control.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 24, 2020, 01:06:58 PM
Newsom threatening to shut the state down again if cases keep rising.

Really, he's using that as the threat to get people to take masks/distancing seriously. I think it's an empty threat because >half the counties in this state will give him the middle finger and not enforce it if he tries to shut it down again. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 24, 2020, 01:35:12 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 24, 2020, 01:06:58 PM
Newsom threatening to shut the state down again if cases keep rising.

Really, he's using that as the threat to get people to take masks/distancing seriously. I think it's an empty threat because >half the counties in this state will give him the middle finger and not enforce it if he tries to shut it down again.
He shouldn't have to do that. It's a given that it helps. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 24, 2020, 02:10:56 PM
Scarce medical oxygen worldwide leaves many gasping for life

https://apnews.com/df97326ec00fb7cc4abf5b3821ace984 (https://apnews.com/df97326ec00fb7cc4abf5b3821ace984)


In Spain, as coronavirus deaths climbed, engineers laid 7 kilometers (4 miles) of tubing in less than a week to give 1,500 beds in an impromptu hospital a direct supply of pure oxygen. Oxygen is also plentiful and brings the most profits in industrial use such as mining, aerospace, electronics and construction.

But in poor countries, from Peru to Bangladesh, it is in lethally short supply.

___

This story was produced with the support of the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 24, 2020, 02:13:27 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 24, 2020, 01:35:12 PM
He shouldn't have to do that. It's a given that it helps.
There you go, talking sense again.

This is politics, we don't do that around these parts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 24, 2020, 02:18:45 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 24, 2020, 11:49:51 AM
Florida looks to be out of control right now. People there really need to take this thing more serious, and be more careful.
Texas, too.

20% positive testing rates in some parts of Texas.  Houston hospitals are at capacity already.

AZ, CA, GA (new), LA (new), NC, SC, AL, TN, MS, AR are ALL showing signs of exponential growth again.

It's just a matter of time before the above states infect the northeast again.

This is not good at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 24, 2020, 02:23:39 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 24, 2020, 02:18:45 PM
Texas, too.

20% positive testing rates in some parts of Texas.  Houston hospitals are at capacity already.

AZ, CA, GA (new), LA (new), NC, SC, AL, TN, MS, AR are ALL showing signs of exponential growth again.

It's just a matter of time before the above states infect the northeast again.

This is not good at all.
I can only speak To where I am out in Florida and in the small circle I’m traveling. The hundred or so people who work for me and myself are still working from home. The office is still pretty much empty. Everywhere I go just about everybody has a mascon and there is distancing taking place.

From what I’m reading and what I can gather many of the new infected are in Miami Dade and are of a lot younger age than the prior trend was showing. Not sure what that means but it seems to point towards less social distancing by the younger crowd?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on June 24, 2020, 02:28:34 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 24, 2020, 11:59:16 AM
5500+ new cases today is out of control. 8.5% positive is out of control.
Single digits? My state would kill for that. We've had a mess of days in the double digits. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 24, 2020, 02:29:55 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 24, 2020, 02:23:39 PM
I can only speak To where I am out in Florida and in the small circle I’m traveling. The hundred or so people who work for me and myself are still working from home. The office is still pretty much empty. Everywhere I go just about everybody has a mascon and there is distancing taking place.

From what I’m reading and what I can gather many of the new infected are in Miami Dade and are of a lot younger age than the prior trend was showing. Not sure what that means but it seems to point towards less social distancing by the younger crowd?
Yeah, I just talked to my contractor who is gutting my house and he said the same thing about the areas that are shooting up. It's a result of the kiddies not wearing masks and not distancing. The 18-30 age group makes up the majority.

In my zip code there are 14 active cases, and in his there are 54. They are all nursing home cases, except for 3. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 24, 2020, 02:32:02 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on June 24, 2020, 02:28:34 PM
Single digits? My state would kill for that. We've had a mess of days in the double digits.
Well, they were averaging under 4% just 2 weeks ago. 

There also MIGHT be correlation to people not being outside, as it's gotten hotter and more humid. So if they hang out inside, where the virus spreads easier, bingo.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 24, 2020, 02:39:57 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 24, 2020, 02:32:02 PM
Well, they were averaging under 4% just 2 weeks ago.

There also MIGHT be correlation to people not being outside, as it's gotten hotter and more humid. So if they hang out inside, where the virus spreads easier, bingo.
Remember a couple of weeks ago when all these people were saying how warm weather would stop the virus?

Welp...

With all of this exponential growth, what happens when K-12 and college starts back up again?

At this point I think our only hope is a vaccine.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 24, 2020, 02:46:31 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 24, 2020, 02:39:57 PM
Remember a couple of weeks ago when all these people were saying how warm weather would stop the virus?

Welp...

With all of this exponential growth, what happens when K-12 and college starts back up again?

At this point I think our only hope is a vaccine. 
I haven't heard that for a long time. Dr. Fauci brought it up as a possibility early on, as it's been noted that the virus doesn't like heat and humidity.

We cannot lock down again, that much is certain. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 24, 2020, 03:24:54 PM
Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2912%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F014a91ff-24d2-49ed-a0d4-3adb701b7608_1600x533.png&t=1593009598&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1cb2-a00014012700&sig=VbpovFNECrMQ8NhnmPJjxw--~C) (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUsuO3CAQ_JrxzRZPGw4-rCLlN6wG2gy7NjiAs5l8ffD4FAlBqR9VrS4sVPQpv-YjldqdBfMS3CyY5hOduoYcVVJ1oSxrRtwhbHPNJ3bHabZgoYYUrwYmJdXdc3aSrppwgwoQqHZynUDxcQImnJaj6i6ZBU4XMFqcU9xeb-Jum5-1HuXBPx7sZzvWxaGcplSwX4NNewuFHTy2d8Vqn1fJsoU91Af7sTbGmhr4dQP-4VNyV2Jbjpx8xlLCb2zxUhGP1nuLMXnJyUuwXea0X9jyuUcijbFK9AaA94JP2GtJVQ_OcGZwmrQSQ-ED7PA3Rfgu94SN417LG77HLW9IqABN17VvW2C90Oh6IE70vBFOhJppJGqhIyF_JOfDEX0XZkYYISMTlBIl6EAH9oknm9jTfJqHILtn_-2ny3OG6AaTg_elFRRj_ZYMbEPEetm1tKr9jKG-FoxgNnS3k_W2_m1MfR04R_wuG9aK-Q42e6XiQuiuCbrU_kCc95RjiN6FckBz4x_C0b-y)
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2912%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F1257b7c4-487d-41a1-b5b2-3744b021e172_1600x989.png&t=1593009598&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1cb2-a00014012700&sig=WMmeDuzmMx52Db.VQrPKow--~C) (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUsuO3CAQ_JrhZss0MOCDD6tI-Q2LR5th1wYHcDaTrw-2T0EISk13VasLqyv6lN_TnkolR8E8BzdxGJmkkjTkqBKKhDIvGXHTYZ1qPpDsh1mD1TWkeBaAEHQkr4lbYLDYkZ7LGrU8EYzi_AmiMaEjp8ysDxcwWpxSXN8XMVmnV617ebCPB_xs27rYl8OUqu1Xb9PWQmHTHtu9YLWvM2VewxbqA34sjbGmBn7dgH34lNz5sM57Tj5jKeE3tnipiHurvcVAnHLiFGyHOewXtvfc4SCMsYp3RmvWcSaxGwVVnXaGgUEpR8X7wnq96b8p6u9yd9g47rFc8Gq3XJCCkEZa3nElXceppp0RBjomOTcDUKQSZvochj-jGvs9ehImGGAYnsApHRSnPe3hEw-Q8DKf5sGHzcN_8yF5yjq63uTgfWkJxVi_JqPXPmI97Zpb1nbEUN8zRm1WdLeT9bb-Mqa-d5wifpcVa8V8B5u9QjHOR9IEXWp_IE5byjFE70LZdXPjH5hUvrM)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 24, 2020, 04:18:18 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 24, 2020, 02:39:57 PM
Remember a couple of weeks ago when all these people were saying how warm weather would stop the virus?

Welp...

With all of this exponential growth, what happens when K-12 and college starts back up again?

At this point I think our only hope is a vaccine. 
Yes- that’s the irony.   Air conditioning spreads it.  
stay at home or go out?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 24, 2020, 04:41:45 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 24, 2020, 02:39:57 PM
Remember a couple of weeks ago when all these people were saying how warm weather would stop the virus?

Welp...

With all of this exponential growth, what happens when K-12 and college starts back up again?

At this point I think our only hope is a vaccine. 
I don't know what schools are going to do. My youngest is supposed to start kindergarten. The feeling is they are going to have some sort of limited schedule. Like going two or three days a week. But they haven't announced anything.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 24, 2020, 04:52:05 PM
Opening up the schools may be the way to herd immunity??

Anyone smarter than me care to opine? @bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) ??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 24, 2020, 04:57:36 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 24, 2020, 02:46:31 PM
I haven't heard that for a long time. Dr. Fauci brought it up as a possibility early on, as it's been noted that the virus doesn't like heat and humidity.

We cannot lock down again, that much is certain.
Yup, folks are gonna have to wear masks.  

And everywhere that reopens indoor spaces, is going to get another surge. It's not going away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 24, 2020, 05:11:08 PM
Neither is a wave of poverty if they don't open up
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 24, 2020, 05:26:20 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 24, 2020, 04:52:05 PM
Opening up the schools may be the way to herd immunity??

Anyone smarter than me care to opine? @bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) ??
"The way to herd immunity" is the way to hundreds of thousands of deaths... Most think we need >70% infection rates to get to herd immunity, and it's unlikely we're above 5% nationally right now--with ~125K deaths to date. 

The hope with this thing HAS to be to manage a slow burn until we either find a miracle treatment that drastically reduces the mortality rate, or we get a vaccine. That doesn't mean keep the world locked down; that means doing the things within our power to keep infections as low as we can. 

Kids need to go back to school. If we were to keep them out of school an entire additional school year, the damage to their academic development will be a disaster. Given that they are the lowest-risk demographic that exists, the risk to them is small. 

But the risk to the rest of us is MUCH higher. A kid who goes to school and contracts COVID brings it home to his/her parents, who then become another potential vector of spread. What if the parents are health care workers? Nursing home employees? First responders of some type or another? What if they have an elderly relative in the household? 

So if we want a slow burn, we don't just toss them in school and hope they get COVID-19, we put them in school with physical distancing guidelines, masks, limited class sizes, etc, everything we can do to help reduce the spread while they're at school.

My kids are currently slated to go back to school in August. Apparently the school is making masks optional. I have made it VERY clear to them that no matter what the school says, *I* say they're mandatory. And that I'll reach out to their teachers at the beginning of the year so that their teachers understand that they are expected to wear them and if they don't that the teachers should contact me. 

I said it above, and I'll say it again. Herd immunity is not the exit strategy we should be hoping for. We should be hoping to minimize infections and deaths until we develop a better exit strategy (treatment or vaccine). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 24, 2020, 05:31:25 PM
Where does that 70% come from?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 24, 2020, 05:36:00 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 24, 2020, 05:31:25 PM
Where does that 70% come from?
I've seen that passed around as an estimate.  It depends on R naught obviously.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 24, 2020, 05:36:33 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on June 20, 2020, 08:15:07 PM
The campaign blames protesters and, of course, the media for the low turnout. Had they been more on the ball they could have easily had the rally with social distancing and masks and looked a lot better and also not been as irresponsible.
Was thinking about this today when I saw the tv ratings which were incredibly high( just under 8 Million)
and another roughly 10 Million between streaming digital and online. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 24, 2020, 05:37:45 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 24, 2020, 05:31:25 PM
Where does that 70% come from?
I saw it in a post from Johns Hopkins

https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/achieving-herd-immunity-with-covid19.html

One issue with herd immunity is we aren't certain how immunity will work with Covid. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 24, 2020, 05:38:02 PM
It's not houndreds of thousands of deaths not even close.I take that back keep closing businesses and good people will be done playing by the rulz - it will surpass that but it won't be from covid
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 24, 2020, 05:39:02 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 24, 2020, 05:36:33 PM
Was thinking about this today when I saw the tv ratings which were incredibly high( just under 8 Million)
and another roughly 10 Million between streaming digital and online.
I watched a bit of it. It had the feel of a train wreck you could watch on Hulu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 24, 2020, 05:39:14 PM
Georgia is putting up some really bad numbers now.  By end of May, 5 weeks after the reopening, the state was still dropping slowly, around 500 new cases per day.  The current rate is over 3x that.  Hospital beds up from 800 to about 1100.

Not good news.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 24, 2020, 05:40:31 PM
My guess is baseball tries to start up and then gets stopped.

CFB - maybe 2% chance of playing a single game.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 24, 2020, 05:41:26 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 24, 2020, 05:31:25 PM
Where does that 70% come from?
Herd immunity is largely a function of how transmissible a disease is.

With the measles, it's SO insanely contagious that you need 92-95% immunity before you can declare herd immunity. 

We don't know the exact R0 of COVID-19. The evidence suggests it's significantly higher than influenza. It's not anywhere near measles. So we have to give it a rough estimate, not an exact number. 

The estimates I've seen from credible sources range in the 60-80% interval, so I took the midpoint. 

Mayo clinic cites a 70% number: https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808 (https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808)
Johns Hopkins is the same: https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/achieving-herd-immunity-with-covid19.html

 (https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/achieving-herd-immunity-with-covid19.html)I'm not going to make the 70% my hill to die on. Maybe it's 40%. Maybe it's 90%. 

What I do believe strongly is that the number is FAR higher than current infection rates, so I'm more than willing to stand by my "hundreds of thousand more deaths" prediction before herd immunity is reached.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 24, 2020, 05:44:09 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 24, 2020, 05:38:02 PM
It's not houndreds of thousands of deaths not even close.I take that back keep closing businesses and good people will be done playing by the rulz - it will surpass that but it won't be from covid
Really? Cite your work on the "it's not hundreds of thousands of deaths" prediction. We're at almost 125K based upon the most stringent social distancing requirements Americans have endured since the Spanish Flu, in a period of 3 months, and we have *MAYBE* 5% of our population infected by this point. 

I've cited mine over the past couple of days, why I believe that reaching herd immunity naturally would have that level of a death toll. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 24, 2020, 05:55:20 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 24, 2020, 05:36:33 PM
Was thinking about this today when I saw the tv ratings which were incredibly high( just under 8 Million)
and another roughly 10 Million between streaming digital and online.
A lot of people tuned in to see the empty seats.  Once news got out that the arena was more than half empty and the overflow stage was cancelled, it drew just about every liberal in to see the carnage.

I'm pretty moderate, but that was going to be a trainwreck from the start.  They bragged over 1 million people were coming.  To a 19,000 arena.  In Oklahoma.  It doesn't take a genius to connect the dots there.  Is the campaign manage an Ohio State grad?  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 24, 2020, 05:57:12 PM
To hit 200,000,000 infections, ugh, it would be bad, even if magically the mortality rate were 0.1%.

I still think there is something happening we are not yet seeing.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 24, 2020, 05:59:41 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 24, 2020, 05:44:09 PM
Really? Cite your work on the "it's not hundreds of thousands of deaths" prediction. We're at almost 125K based upon the most stringent social distancing requirements Americans have endured since the Spanish Flu, in a period of 3 months, and we have *MAYBE* 5% of our population infected by this point.

I've cited mine over the past couple of days, why I believe that reaching herd immunity naturally would have that level of a death toll.

I actually think you were way too conservative on your math.  I can almost guarantee your projections are too low.

The death toll we would rack up before we reach before herd immunity is almost unfathomable.  

I'm really hoping we get a vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 24, 2020, 06:00:02 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 24, 2020, 05:57:12 PM
To hit 200,000,000 infections, ugh, it would be bad, even if magically the mortality rate were 0.1%.

I still think there is something happening we are not yet seeing.


like?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 24, 2020, 06:01:52 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 24, 2020, 05:40:31 PM
My guess is baseball tries to start up and then gets stopped.

CFB - maybe 2% chance of playing a single game.
What are the stages of grief?

Because I'm still in denial, even if I recognize the truth of your statement.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 24, 2020, 06:02:13 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 24, 2020, 05:55:20 PM
A lot of people tuned in to see the empty seats.  Once news got out that the arena was more than half empty and the overflow stage was cancelled, it drew just about every liberal in to see the carnage.

I'm pretty moderate, but that was going to be a trainwreck from the start.  They bragged over 1 million people were coming.  To a 19,000 arena.  In Oklahoma.  It doesn't take a genius to connect the dots there.  Is the campaign manage an Ohio State grad?  :)
No- wether we like him or not- those ratings are through the roof. Funny to see people try to explain it away though.  You have to go pretty far out of your way to stream it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 24, 2020, 06:05:54 PM
I didn't watch it, and none my friends at the marina watched it. Just sayin'. We just had better things to do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 24, 2020, 06:10:41 PM
Sweden did not go "off the rails".  It was worse than most EU countries, but not all.  Several were worse.  I can't explain that.

NY/NJ were hit hard early and now see cases declining.  Why would that be the case?  Distancing alone?

Georgia technically started reopening April 23 and the increase was not seen for five weeks or more.  Was that due to the protests?

Is the virus "weakening" in terms of lethality or are the older people just being better protected?

What percentage of the population has antibodies to this thing now?

How did Germany stay low, and are they now increasing?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 24, 2020, 06:12:13 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 24, 2020, 05:44:09 PM
Really? Cite your work on the "it's not hundreds of thousands of deaths" prediction. We're at almost 125K based upon the most stringent social distancing requirements Americans have endured since the Spanish Flu, in a period of 3 months, and we have *MAYBE* 5% of our population infected by this point.

I've cited mine over the past couple of days, why I believe that reaching herd immunity naturally would have that level of a death toll.

Oh really over how much time,somehow the horrible asp has blown past this humble hamlet.Save your numbers,it's a thing but not worth killing the goose that laid the golden egg.How about the jobs lost the people I know personally are affected.They're suppose to take this shit because others think it's a good idea with cherry picked numbers.We're all gonna die take percautions and don't be push overs.And a lot of toes have been taged with this that weren't.More and more those that got screwed will make the recent unrest look like a pinata party
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 24, 2020, 06:25:48 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 24, 2020, 06:10:41 PM
Sweden did not go "off the rails".  It was worse than most EU countries, but not all.  Several were worse.  I can't explain that.

NY/NJ were hit hard early and now see cases declining.  Why would that be the case?  Distancing alone?

Georgia technically started reopening April 23 and the increase was not seen for five weeks or more.  Was that due to the protests?

Is the virus "weakening" in terms of lethality or are the older people just being better protected?

What percentage of the population has antibodies to this thing now?

How did Germany stay low, and are they now increasing?
Sweden's new case rate has been climbing for the last month. Their daily death rate per million residents is currently higher than several of the EU countries ahead of them in total deaths/1M, so they're "gaining ground" in the race nobody wants to win.

New York (state) is still getting ~850 new cases/day and 40-50 deaths/day. And this is a state that is barely open. NYC is just barely starting to reopen: https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/06/22/partially-reopen-new-york-city-bears-little-resemblance-to-its-former-self-1294113

 (https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/06/22/partially-reopen-new-york-city-bears-little-resemblance-to-its-former-self-1294113)They're not climbing at the moment. But imagine what they're going to look like in another month or 6 weeks?

You yourself saw Georgia "open" and nothing happened for weeks... I attribute that partly to people being scared at the start of reopening. I attribute it also to people once they got comfortable with reopening being safe so they started shedding mitigation behaviors, and now it's getting close to exploding again. There might be a small protest effect, but I think the most is that people relaxed WAY too much.

What happened is that the entire world took this seriously... for about 2 months. Now they're ready to go back to normal and the virus is loving it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 24, 2020, 06:29:14 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 24, 2020, 06:12:13 PM
Oh really over how much time,somehow the horrible asp has blown past this humble hamlet.Save your numbers,it's a thing but not worth killing the goose that laid the golden egg.How about the jobs lost the people I know personally are affected.They're suppose to take this shit because others think it's a good idea with cherry picked numbers.We're all gonna die take percautions and don't be push overs.And a lot of toes have been taged with this that weren't.More and more those that got screwed will make the recent unrest look like a pinata party
Stop changing the subject.

Every time I say "numbers" you say "so you want the world to shut down forever??", and that's not the case. I have been saying for WEEKS that we need to be reopening and we're not putting that genie back in the bottle. But people need to keep distancing, wearing masks, and not being morons about it. 

So it's 125K over three months. Are you saying that, perhaps, 300K more by Mar 31, 2021 is outside the realm of possibility if people don't be smart about this?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 24, 2020, 06:31:19 PM
The virus isn't loving it people who don't give a shit about others taking numbers that have been pulled from irresponsible backsides
Control information - and you control perception. The truth is - COVID19 has not killed even a fraction of people the original projections said it would and falls within the range of normal influenza virus.. MOST of the deaths that did occur (75 - 80%) are people 65 or older. And MOST of the deaths that occur within remaining 20% are people whose health was already severely compromised. For this the economy is shut down, livelihoods are lost, children are dying in hospitals alone because their parents can't visit them, surgeries postponed, domestic violence and suicides are

skyrocketing, and I just heard yesterday on PBS (haven't checked this out or sourced yet) - that 80% of all independently owned restaurants will never open again. I posted the above quote by Dr. Paul - not to dispute the efficacy of wearing masks - but because I trust the man - and it encapsulated my sentiments, for the most part. WHO and the CDC are controlled by big pharma. Bill Gates is now the biggest contributor to WHO - and has massive ties to Fauci and Burkes. No one is talking about vitamin C or D or zinc. It's just about mandating a vaccine for a virus that has yet to be isolated and purified.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 24, 2020, 06:34:23 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 24, 2020, 06:05:54 PM
I didn't watch it, and none my friends at the marina watched it. Just sayin'. We just had better things to do.
Well they didn’t brag about getting a million people there, contrary to what XiNN says.  The bragged about having a million on line inquiries. And afterwards, many came forward and lamented that they went to get tickets online - but couldn’t.  Lol- outsmarted by TikTok.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 24, 2020, 06:36:17 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 24, 2020, 06:29:14 PM

Every time I say "numbers" you say "so you want the world to shut down forever??", and that's not the case. I have been saying for WEEKS that we need to be reopening and we're not putting that genie back in the bottle. But people need to keep distancing, wearing masks, and not being morons about it.

When I said how long I meant to stack numbers of deaths we are way under where they were projected.I agree with this I just came back from a brewpub and got a growler.They are opening with distance.1st time I've been in a pub since february - There were only 3 in there with masks,myself and two employees
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 24, 2020, 06:50:54 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 24, 2020, 05:38:02 PM
It's not houndreds of thousands of deaths not even close.I take that back keep closing businesses and good people will be done playing by the rulz - it will surpass that but it won't be from covid
There are alternatives between herd immunity and total economic collapse.
Opening up with everyone wearing masks is one of them.
But many of the same people--not accusing you, Nubbz--most loudly demanding that we reopen are the same people who ridicule anyone wearing a mask.  I know this because I've got 'em amongst my relatives.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 24, 2020, 06:51:35 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 23, 2020, 12:47:57 PM
I think this keeps getting stated, but I'm not sure it's true at all.

Remember, the flu ALSO disproportionately kills the old and those with comorbid health factors. So if you want to figure out how this affects "a class of people" relative to the flu, you have to factor that in.

For example, I'm 41 years old, healthy, with no known heart or respiratory issues. My risk of mortality to the flu is extremely low. Much lower than the typical flu mortality rates in the 0.10-0.15% range. Because that 0.10-0.15% range for the flu includes the much more severely affected populations.

I suspect, although I don't have the data to back this up, that COVID-19 is significantly higher mortality for people in the "low-risk" age/health groups than the flu. That doesn't mean it's high, but let's not act like this is "just like the flu".

This thing has already killed 2x as many people in the US than the worst flu season in the last decade, and is rapidly approaching 4x the annual average.

So even with the data point that 42% of deaths were nursing homes, that still leaves more deaths than the worst flu season in the last decade.

If you take the data point that's been bandied about here that ~80% of all deaths are in people over 65, that still leaves ~25,000 deaths. The average flu season over the last decade is 37,000 deaths, and that includes people over 65, who account for between 70 and 85% of flu-related deaths as well (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/highrisk/65over.htm#:~:text=In recent years%2C for example,people in this age group.).

So if you assume an average of 37,000 flu deaths per year, and the low end of 70% of those deaths are above 65 years old, that leaves 11,100. If you take the worst flu season in the past decade of 61,000 deaths and extract out those over 65, that leaves 18,300.

So at 25,000 deaths to people under 65, we're already around 2.5x worse than a typical flu season, and around 1.5x as bad as the worst flu season in the last decade. And that's in the span of three months with infection rates not going away by any stretch.

This is not the flu!
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 24, 2020, 06:31:19 PM
The virus isn't loving it people who don't give a shit about others taking numbers that have been pulled from irresponsible backsides
Control information - and you control perception. The truth is - COVID19 has not killed even a fraction of people the original projections said it would and falls within the range of normal influenza virus.. MOST of the deaths that did occur (75 - 80%) are people 65 or older. And MOST of the deaths that occur within remaining 20% are people whose health was already severely compromised. For this the economy is shut down, livelihoods are lost, children are dying in hospitals alone because their parents can't visit them, surgeries postponed, domestic violence and suicides are

skyrocketing, and I just heard yesterday on PBS (haven't checked this out or sourced yet) - that 80% of all independently owned restaurants will never open again. I posted the above quote by Dr. Paul - not to dispute the efficacy of wearing masks - but because I trust the man - and it encapsulated my sentiments, for the most part. WHO and the CDC are controlled by big pharma. Bill Gates is now the biggest contributor to WHO - and has massive ties to Fauci and Burkes. No one is talking about vitamin C or D or zinc. It's just about mandating a vaccine for a virus that has yet to be isolated and purified.
"Falls within the range of normal influenza virus"??? In 3 months it's killed twice as many people as the worst influenza of the last decade.

And you can't sit there and say that it didn't reach "projections" when the projections were based upon not social distancing and doing nothing about it. Even then, the models which the White House said that if we did really well it would kill between 100K and 240K. We're already to half of that 240K and it's only been three months, and we're now stopping most of the things we did to keep the numbers down. 

See what I wrote above. The flu also disproportionately kills those above 65. Apparently 70-85% of all flu deaths are in those above 65.

So COVID-19 has currently, after only 3 months, killed ~25K non-elderly. Using the lowest estimate for the flu (70% elderly deaths), that's 2.5x as many young people as are killed by the flu in an average year. Using the higher estimate for the flu (85% elderly deaths), 5x as many young people have been killed by COVID-19 than an average flu season.

We've done things we've never done and will never do for the flu in order to control this, and it's already blown the flu right out of the damn water. 

Quote from: MrNubbz on June 24, 2020, 06:36:17 PM
When I said how long I meant to stack numbers of deaths we are way under where they were projected.I agree with this I just came back from a brewpub and got a growler.They are opening with distance.1st time I've been in a pub since february - There were only 3 in there with masks,myself and two employees
Again, we're under the worst-case projections because we did something about it, not because it wasn't serious. We're currently within the range of projections IF we flattened the curve, but the curve isn't staying flat. So where we'll be in a month is a big question. 

Again, I'm not saying we need to be remain closed. I'm saying this thing didn't go anywhere while we were closed, so we still have to be smart.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 24, 2020, 06:55:26 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 24, 2020, 06:50:54 PM
There are alternatives between herd immunity and total economic collapse.
Opening up with everyone wearing masks is one of them.
But many of the same people--not accusing you, Nubbz--most loudly demanding that we reopen are the same people who ridicule anyone wearing a mask.  I know this because I've got 'em amongst my relatives.
Shoot a lot of them say they won't take the vaccine
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 24, 2020, 06:56:52 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 24, 2020, 06:34:23 PM
Well they didn’t brag about getting a million people there, contrary to what XiNN says.  The bragged about having a million on line inquiries. And afterwards, many came forward and lamented that they went to get tickets online - but couldn’t.  Lol- outsmarted by TikTok.
Do you have a source for that, HB?  We in Tulsa are unaware of this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 24, 2020, 06:58:56 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on June 24, 2020, 06:55:26 PM
Shoot a lot of them say they won't take the vaccine
Yep.  The same ones.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 24, 2020, 07:25:09 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 24, 2020, 06:58:56 PM
Yep.  The same ones.
That is mind numbing.  I have seen video of people who say they won’t wear one because they think it infringes on their liberty/ but I didn’t know they were ridiculing those who do.  I have seen plenty of the opposite. 

it’s hard to understand.  If there is even a chance it is helping our world, why not?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 24, 2020, 07:27:00 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 24, 2020, 06:56:52 PM
Do you have a source for that, HB?  We in Tulsa are unaware of this.
Let me see if I can dig it up because it was from right after like Sunday or Monday. I saw it in several articles that were discussing the whole TickTock charade.  
 
it appears the dork and his team were outsmarted by teens lol
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 24, 2020, 07:36:02 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 24, 2020, 07:27:00 PM
Let me see if I can dig it up because it was from right after like Sunday or Monday. I saw it in several articles that were discussing the whole TickTock charade. 
 
it appears the dork and his team were outsmarted by teens lol
From what I've read, there was no limit on tickets. You sign up, you get a ticket. Then admittance to the rally would be based on first-come, first-served basis.

So apparently even if a bunch of people reserved tickets and didn't show, it wouldn't stop anyone else with tickets from getting admitted. Yet they didn't show. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 24, 2020, 07:47:56 PM
God is protecting them, didn't you know?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 24, 2020, 08:00:24 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 24, 2020, 06:51:35 PM
So COVID-19 has currently, after only 3 months, killed ~25K non-elderly. Using the lowest estimate for the flu (70% elderly deaths), that's 2.5x as many young people as are killed by the flu in an average year. Using the higher estimate for the flu (85% elderly deaths), 5x as many young people have been killed by COVID-19 than an average flu season.

We've done things we've never done and will never do for the flu in order to control this, and it's already blown the flu right out of the damn water.
Again, we're under the worst-case projections because we did something about it, not because it wasn't serious. We're currently within the range of projections IF we flattened the curve, but the curve isn't staying flat. So where we'll be in a month is a big question.

Again, I'm not saying we need to be remain closed. I'm saying this thing didn't go anywhere while we were closed, so we still have to be smart.
“Reconfigured” or purely fabricated? Coronavirus misinformation comes in multiple forms and demands multiple solutions (https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/types-sources-and-claims-covid-19-misinformation)
LINK: REUTERSINSTITUTE.POLITICS.OX.AC.UK  ➚ (https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/types-sources-and-claims-covid-19-misinformation)   |   
Misinformation is not a monolith. (“The Pope endorsed Trump” from The Onion is not the same as “The Pope endorsed Trump” from your uncle on Facebook.) A lot of good work the past few years has gone into finding the right ways to classify different types.
First Draft likes to divide it into (https://firstdraftnews.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Information_Disorder_Digital_AW.pdf?x76701) misinformation (“false content, but the person sharing doesn’t realise that it is false or misleading”), disinformation (“content that is intentionally false and designed to cause harm”), and malinformation (“genuine information that is shared with an intent to cause harm”). Then there’s satire. Good information put in the wrong context. Imposter content. Top-down, bottom-up, financially motivated, politically motivated — it’s all a bit of a taxonomist’s nightmare.
In a new report out this morning (https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2020-04/Brennen - COVID 19 Misinformation FINAL (3).pdf), the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism (https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/) has tried to do some of that sorting for mis-, dis-, mal-, and whatever other sorts of information are circulating around the coronavirus.
Quote
In this RISJ factsheet, we identify some of the main types, sources, and claims of COVID-19 misinformation seen so far. We analyse a sample of 225 pieces of misinformation rated false or misleading by fact-checkers and published in English between January and the end of March 2020, drawn from a collection of fact-checks maintained by First Draft News.
The report — by Oxonians J. Scott Brennen, Felix M. Simon, Philip N. Howard, and Rasmus Kleis Nielsen — looks at the scale, formats, sources, claims, and responses those various bits of wrongness have had so far. Some highlights:
Fact-checkers are doing what they can, but it’s all uphill. “The number of English-language fact-checks rose more than 900% from January to March. (As fact-checkers have limited resources and cannot check all problematic content, the total volume of different kinds of coronavirus misinformation has almost certainly grown even faster.)”
Most of what’s circulating is “reconfigured” misinformation, not the result of straight-up invention (à la “The Pope endorsed Trump”). Sometimes these mix a set of true and false claims in the same post; sometimes it’s a real image that’s been mislabeled with a COVID-19 connection. This is when “existing and often true information is spun, twisted, recontextualised, or reworked.”
The reconfigured stuff also generated more activity on social than the pure fabrications. And there were no deepfakes, so tamp down that particular moral panic in your mind.
Being famous makes it easier to spread misinformation. (Duh.) “High-level politicians, celebrities, or other prominent public figures produced or spread only 20% of the misinformation in our sample, but that misinformation attracted a large majority of all social media engagements in the sample. While some of these instances involve content posted on social media, 36% of top-down misinformation also includes politicians speaking publicly or to the media.”
Twitter needs to step up its game. “Social media platforms have responded to a majority of the social media posts rated false in our sample. There is nonetheless very significant variation from company to company. While 59% of false posts remain active on Twitter with no direct warning label, the number is 27% for YouTube and 24% for Facebook.”
“As we have shown, there is wide variety in the types of misinformation circulating, the claims made concerning the virus, and motivations behind its production,” the authors write. “In this sense, misinformation about COVID-19 is as diverse as information about it.
“The risk in not recognising the diversity in the landscape of coronavirus misinformation is assuming there could be a single solution to this set of problems. Instead, our findings suggest there will be no silver bullet or inoculation — no ‘cure’ for misinformation about the new coronavirus. Instead, addressing the spread of misinformation about COVID-19 will take a sustained and coordinated effort by independent fact-checkers, independent news media, platform companies, and public authorities to help the public understand and navigate the pandemic.”



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 24, 2020, 09:23:00 PM
Some announcements that the feds will stop funding various testing sites. There seems to be a feeling that the federal government has more or less given up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 24, 2020, 11:11:24 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 24, 2020, 06:34:23 PM
Well they didn’t brag about getting a million people there, contrary to what XiNN says.  The bragged about having a million on line inquiries. And afterwards, many came forward and lamented that they went to get tickets online - but couldn’t.  Lol- outsmarted by TikTok. 
November will tell all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 24, 2020, 11:11:48 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 24, 2020, 07:36:02 PM
From what I've read, there was no limit on tickets. You sign up, you get a ticket. Then admittance to the rally would be based on first-come, first-served basis.

So apparently even if a bunch of people reserved tickets and didn't show, it wouldn't stop anyone else with tickets from getting admitted. Yet they didn't show.
That is my understanding too, bwarb.
The BOK Center and the Tulsa PD have stated that no one who wanted to get in was turned away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 24, 2020, 11:11:59 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on June 24, 2020, 09:23:00 PM
Some announcements that the feds will stop funding various testing sites. There seems to be a feeling that the federal government has more or less given up.
Nope.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 24, 2020, 11:19:40 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 24, 2020, 07:25:09 PM
That is mind numbing.  I have seen video of people who say they won’t wear one because they think it infringes on their liberty/ but I didn’t know they were ridiculing those who do.  I have seen plenty of the opposite.

it’s hard to understand.  If there is even a chance it is helping our world, why not?
You haven't seen the memes of cowardly mask-wearers compared to the brave soldiers who stormed Omaha Beach?  Or the cowardly mask-wearers hiding behind a couch in fear that they might be exposed to a little virus?
I'm sure that the people putting those out are non-mask-wearers who want the economy to open up.
My sister who lives just north of Dallas posts stupid crap like that on Facebook every day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 24, 2020, 11:42:17 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 24, 2020, 11:19:40 PM
You haven't seen the memes of cowardly mask-wearers compared to the brave soldiers who stormed Omaha Beach?  Or the cowardly mask-wearers hiding behind a couch in fear that they might be exposed to a little virus?
I'm sure that the people putting those out are non-mask-wearers who want the economy to open up.
My sister who lives just north of Dallas posts stupid crap like that on Facebook every day.
Unreal 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on June 24, 2020, 11:53:53 PM
The worst thing to happen was summer.  People just quit trying, and somehow some managed to turn mask wearing into some wimp move.  If this had been over the winter here, people would have actually distanced, and stick with it.  The only time they would go out was to a store, and presumably worn a mask.  We might have had a shot.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 24, 2020, 11:54:22 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 24, 2020, 08:00:24 PM
“Reconfigured” or purely fabricated? Coronavirus misinformation comes in multiple forms and demands multiple solutions (https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/types-sources-and-claims-covid-19-misinformation)
LINK: REUTERSINSTITUTE.POLITICS.OX.AC.UK  ➚ (https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/types-sources-and-claims-covid-19-misinformation)  | 
Misinformation is not a monolith. (“The Pope endorsed Trump” from The Onion is not the same as “The Pope endorsed Trump” from your uncle on Facebook.) A lot of good work the past few years has gone into finding the right ways to classify different types.
First Draft likes to divide it into (https://firstdraftnews.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Information_Disorder_Digital_AW.pdf?x76701) misinformation (“false content, but the person sharing doesn’t realise that it is false or misleading”), disinformation (“content that is intentionally false and designed to cause harm”), and malinformation (“genuine information that is shared with an intent to cause harm”). Then there’s satire. Good information put in the wrong context. Imposter content. Top-down, bottom-up, financially motivated, politically motivated — it’s all a bit of a taxonomist’s nightmare.
In a new report out this morning (https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2020-04/Brennen - COVID 19 Misinformation FINAL (3).pdf), the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism (https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/) has tried to do some of that sorting for mis-, dis-, mal-, and whatever other sorts of information are circulating around the coronavirus.
The report — by Oxonians J. Scott Brennen, Felix M. Simon, Philip N. Howard, and Rasmus Kleis Nielsen — looks at the scale, formats, sources, claims, and responses those various bits of wrongness have had so far. Some highlights:
Fact-checkers are doing what they can, but it’s all uphill. “The number of English-language fact-checks rose more than 900% from January to March. (As fact-checkers have limited resources and cannot check all problematic content, the total volume of different kinds of coronavirus misinformation has almost certainly grown even faster.)”
Most of what’s circulating is “reconfigured” misinformation, not the result of straight-up invention (à la “The Pope endorsed Trump”). Sometimes these mix a set of true and false claims in the same post; sometimes it’s a real image that’s been mislabeled with a COVID-19 connection. This is when “existing and often true information is spun, twisted, recontextualised, or reworked.”
The reconfigured stuff also generated more activity on social than the pure fabrications. And there were no deepfakes, so tamp down that particular moral panic in your mind.
Being famous makes it easier to spread misinformation. (Duh.) “High-level politicians, celebrities, or other prominent public figures produced or spread only 20% of the misinformation in our sample, but that misinformation attracted a large majority of all social media engagements in the sample. While some of these instances involve content posted on social media, 36% of top-down misinformation also includes politicians speaking publicly or to the media.”
Twitter needs to step up its game. “Social media platforms have responded to a majority of the social media posts rated false in our sample. There is nonetheless very significant variation from company to company. While 59% of false posts remain active on Twitter with no direct warning label, the number is 27% for YouTube and 24% for Facebook.”
“As we have shown, there is wide variety in the types of misinformation circulating, the claims made concerning the virus, and motivations behind its production,” the authors write. “In this sense, misinformation about COVID-19 is as diverse as information about it.
“The risk in not recognising the diversity in the landscape of coronavirus misinformation is assuming there could be a single solution to this set of problems. Instead, our findings suggest there will be no silver bullet or inoculation — no ‘cure’ for misinformation about the new coronavirus. Instead, addressing the spread of misinformation about COVID-19 will take a sustained and coordinated effort by independent fact-checkers, independent news media, platform companies, and public authorities to help the public understand and navigate the pandemic.”




In all that, was there a point? Or an argument? Or something relevant to what I posted?

Help me out here. Maybe I'm just thick, but I'm missing it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 25, 2020, 12:38:23 AM
1. The Second Wave
The number of new cases doesn't look good. Here's the data as of this morning. Let's look at the curve on the rolling 7-day average:
[img width=563.963]https://mcusercontent.com/41df14e6667a85d0f6e4a4f5e/images/8bd451dc-97b4-4936-b841-01ad8f92fbc4.jpg[/img] (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html)[/font][/size][/color]
Not great, Bob. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YSZd6MnEuLw)

On the other hand, the number of tests performed daily has increased dramatically—which is very good. Have a look at the daily test numbers:
[img width=563.963]https://mcusercontent.com/41df14e6667a85d0f6e4a4f5e/images/2af04753-cc3a-4da0-b01d-9342cbb383b7.jpg[/img][/size][/color]
Yay testing!

This is why some people who hold high office are saying that the only reason we have more cases is because we're doing more testing.

That is one possible explanation.

Another possible explanation is that there are more infections out in the wild than there were three weeks ago.

If that were the case, then you would expect to see the percentage of positive tests going up and ruh-roh:
[img width=563.963]https://mcusercontent.com/41df14e6667a85d0f6e4a4f5e/images/74c539f6-0643-4153-b0b3-95358ad4eb48.jpg[/img] (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states)[/font][/size][/color]
So the low point in our percentage of positive tests tracks almost exactly with our low point in daily new cases (that was right around June 10). And since then the percentage of tests coming back positive has gone upward at the same time that the number of new cases have gone upward.

Now, if you want to argue that this is all still just an artifact of testing, you could do that. You could say that there's selection bias going on and that suddenly we have a greater percentage of the infected population deciding to get tested. Which is why the positive test rate is increasing.

But that's a little thin.

The other explanation is that the actual real-world population of infections has grown.
2. Death Watch
Here is the thing about testing: We have two worlds.

The first world is the real world, in which people are either infected, or they are not. The problem with the real world is that it is impossible for us to see it while it's happening. Because the virus is invisible and the world is too big and moves too fast.

The second world is the shadow world of testing, which you can think of as an alternate reality that is closely—but not perfectly—based on the real world.

Getting a test doesn't change the base reality. Testing merely reveals an individual slice of reality and quantifies it for observers to see. Ideally, the world of testing tracks very closely with the real world and gives us a good picture of what the real world looks like.

But there are lots of variables and uncertainties. The picture testing gives you may be very close to reality, or may be a slightly warped version of reality.

The single best metric we have in terms of showing us what the real world looks like is death.

Because a certain percentage of people who contract the coronavirus will die from it. Can this percentage fluctuate depending on the risk profiles of the infected population and therapeutic advances? Yes.

But deaths are the metric that will most closely mirror the real-world status of infections.

There's just one problem with using deaths as your lodestar: They are a trailing indicator of infections.

If the real-world number of infections starts to rise—meaning that we are not just seeing more infections in the testing world for whatever reason—then we will eventually see a corresponding number of deaths. But we won't see it for three or four weeks.

Right now our daily death totals are looking better. Which is to say that the rolling average is 700 deaths per day and the direction of the trend is downward.

The problem is that these death numbers are only confirming the decline in real world infections that we started seeing in the testing world back in early June.

The current daily death totals don't tell us anything about the state of the pool of infections today.
[img width=563.963]https://mcusercontent.com/41df14e6667a85d0f6e4a4f5e/images/52478aa2-3e0e-4184-8614-032bfdb8fd72.jpg[/img] (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html)[/font][/size][/color]
If there is a second wave, then by mid- to late July we're going to see the daily death numbers start to trend back upward.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 25, 2020, 12:44:45 AM
We had more deaths yesterday than last Tuesday . We had more today than last Wednesday. It's too early to call, but I fear an inflection point. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 25, 2020, 01:55:42 AM
There's no such thing as a "second wave" guys.  It plateaued for a bit, we opened up, and it's catching fire.  Say your goodbyes to grandma.  

Our superintendent and school board just discussed our plan for this coming school year.  What's certain is that grandmas are going to die from school being open.  Lots of 'em.  What's also certain, and it will be far, far fewer, but some kids are going to die, too.  

Anybody think we'd have opened up if 60% of deaths from Covid-19 were kids instead of the elderly?  What would have been the plan then?  Same urgency to order a pizza?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 25, 2020, 06:09:40 AM
A "second wave" might be somewhat a misnomer.  When the NY area was getting hard we all shut down and most of the rest of the country looked pretty good outside a few spots.  But that was just a it of fool's good, a lot of those areas that were doing well look to be getting hit hard.  But the numbers in NY (and other places like Italy) are pretty good.  I think a "second wave" would begin if those areas experience large infection rates again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 25, 2020, 06:53:42 AM
The whole "second wave" concept originated from the 1918 experience, which was influenza, not corona.  Then there was a second and then third wave (less severe) that were detectable.  The analogy is false.  This one isn't seasonal.

The idea was to prevent hospitals from being overrun, and that was managed, up til now.  I think folks should be considering how to reconstruct that capacity "we didn't need" because we are going to need it, probably.

And to think the protests had no role in this is absurd, it did, but not the whole story.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 25, 2020, 07:35:51 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 25, 2020, 06:53:42 AM
The whole "second wave" concept originated from the 1918 experience, which was influenza, not corona.  Then there was a second and then third wave (less severe) that were detectable.  The analogy is false.  This one isn't seasonal.

The idea was to prevent hospitals from being overrun, and that was managed, up til now.  I think folks should be considering how to reconstruct that capacity "we didn't need" because we are going to need it, probably.

And to think the protests had no role in this is absurd, it did, but not the whole story.
Well, we hope so.  We haven't even seen this in the fall yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 25, 2020, 09:02:19 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on June 24, 2020, 06:55:26 PM
Shoot a lot of them say they won't take the vaccine
Who is "them" and what percentage say this?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 25, 2020, 09:04:06 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 25, 2020, 09:02:19 AM
Who is "them" and what percentage say this?
Probably the same people who don't have their kids vaccinated for MMR.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 25, 2020, 09:05:44 AM
Sweden still has not suffered a total calamity.  It's rather striking.

They arguably took the worst possible approach to control of the virus and in fact are not doing "that badly".  Not great, but not terrible either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 25, 2020, 09:06:20 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 25, 2020, 09:04:06 AM
Probably the same people who don't have their kids vaccinated for MMR.
My point is we could be talking about a subsection of the population that is one percent, or so, really a small minority.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 25, 2020, 09:08:18 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 25, 2020, 09:02:19 AM
Who is "them" and what percentage say this?
Specifically I'm talking about the people who refuse to wear masks. Not sure what percentage of them would refuse a vaccine but they seem to overlap. I did see a poll that 1 in 5 people would refuse the vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 25, 2020, 09:15:06 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 25, 2020, 01:55:42 AM
There's no such thing as a "second wave" guys.  It plateaued for a bit, we opened up, and it's catching fire.  Say your goodbyes to grandma. 

Our superintendent and school board just discussed our plan for this coming school year.  What's certain is that grandmas are going to die from school being open.  Lots of 'em.  What's also certain, and it will be far, far fewer, but some kids are going to die, too. 

Anybody think we'd have opened up if 60% of deaths from Covid-19 were kids instead of the elderly?  What would have been the plan then?  Same urgency to order a pizza?
Will you be reporting for duty when the schools open?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 25, 2020, 09:18:01 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on June 25, 2020, 09:08:18 AM
Specifically I'm talking about the people who refuse to wear masks. Not sure what percentage of them would refuse a vaccine but they seem to overlap. I did see a poll that 1 in 5 people would refuse the vaccine.
It's got nothing to do with masks. That's just XiNN bulljive.

It's about religion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on June 25, 2020, 09:22:27 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 25, 2020, 01:55:42 AM
There's no such thing as a "second wave" guys.  It plateaued for a bit, we opened up, and it's catching fire.  Say your goodbyes to grandma. 

Our superintendent and school board just discussed our plan for this coming school year.  What's certain is that grandmas are going to die from school being open.  Lots of 'em.  What's also certain, and it will be far, far fewer, but some kids are going to die, too. 

Anybody think we'd have opened up if 60% of deaths from Covid-19 were kids instead of the elderly?  What would have been the plan then?  Same urgency to order a pizza?
No. The death of an 8 year old is generally looked upon as more of a tragedy than the death of an 80 year old.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 25, 2020, 09:25:47 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 25, 2020, 09:18:01 AM
It's got nothing to do with masks. That's just XiNN bulljive.

It's about religion.
Huh?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 25, 2020, 09:26:53 AM
When polls get "down into the weeds" and show a result for 5% of the people or 10%, it really is chaff.  About that percentage in polls just answer randomly, or as a joke, they just don't care.  We used to "poll" people and insert a question like "Would you rather have $5 for completing this poll or $25?" and 10% would say $5.  These were written questionnaires, so a bit different.

You also have 5% or so who say what they think you want to hear if done verbally as in a focus group interview.

If 20% of people will refuse to take a free vaccine, well, so be it.  I'd be surprised if the figure is really that high in the longer run, especially if this thing goes ballistic.

Now I need to go sell some more stock.  Gonna be a rough few months I suspect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 25, 2020, 09:27:50 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on June 25, 2020, 09:25:47 AM
Huh?
Vaccine refusals are rooted in basically two things. Religion is the biggest one, but some fear the safety of a vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 25, 2020, 09:29:37 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 25, 2020, 09:27:50 AM
Vaccine refusals are rooted in basically two things. Religion is the biggest one, but some fear the safety of a vaccine.
Ah gotcha
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 25, 2020, 09:31:00 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 25, 2020, 09:26:53 AM
When polls get "down into the weeds" and show a result for 5% of the people or 10%, it really is chaff.  About that percentage in polls just answer randomly, or as a joke, they just don't care.  We used to "poll" people and insert a question like "Would you rather have $5 for completing this poll or $25?" and 10% would say $5.  These were written questionnaires, so a bit different.

You also have 5% or so who say what they think you want to hear if done verbally as in a focus group interview.

If 20% of people will refuse to take a free vaccine, well, so be it.  I'd be surprised if the figure is really that high in the longer run, especially if this thing goes ballistic.

Now I need to go sell some more stock.  Gonna be a rough few months I suspect.
It likely will be. I'm meeting with my advisor in 30 minutes to pick his brain.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 25, 2020, 09:35:53 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 25, 2020, 12:44:45 AM
We had more deaths yesterday than last Tuesday . We had more today than last Wednesday. It's too early to call, but I fear an inflection point.
As of yesterday deaths has declined for nine weeks in a row

Yes I know deaths is a trailing indicator so this trend might change
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 25, 2020, 09:37:23 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 25, 2020, 09:35:53 AM
As of yesterday deaths has declined for nine weeks in a row

Yes I know deaths is a trailing indicator so this trend might change
Nationally or in Texas, 320?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 25, 2020, 09:39:35 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 25, 2020, 09:37:23 AM
Nationally or in Texas, 320?
Nationally

Texas has a very low death rate as only nine states have a lower one
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 25, 2020, 09:44:16 AM
I still dont think the huge increase in cases will translate into proportionate deaths

I think a combination of a large increase in testing and the average age of the current positive testers 

is the reason I think this

Hospitalizations in Texas is way up so Im a little concerned about that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 25, 2020, 09:51:40 AM
1,124 hospitalizations currently in GA.  New cases each day running around 1700, deaths at 22 (or so).

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/)

Beginning of June hospitalizations was around 800, so that is up 40% or so.  New cases has tripled.

Number of deaths is of course a lagger.  The mortality rate does appear to be dropping as the case count rises rather steeply, and the serious case rate is climbing but more slowly, fortunately.

Personally we are backing off on dining out for now, not to zero, just reducing it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 25, 2020, 09:59:53 AM
The states with a big increase in cases are mostly all southern where its warmer

what happens when it gets warm

you eat more ice cream

we need to lay off of ice cream

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tcwz8-EfFYE (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tcwz8-EfFYE)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 25, 2020, 10:01:10 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 25, 2020, 09:35:53 AM
As of yesterday deaths has declined for nine weeks in a row

Yes I know deaths is a trailing indicator so this trend might change
Yeah, and as I said it's too early to call. Three weeks ago we had a "pause" in the decline of the death rate, and then it resumed. And right now I'm only looking at two consecutive days. But we had our highest daily case rate yesterday since Apr 24, and second highest nationally ever, after a week of increase.

So unlike the situation 3 weeks ago, the leading indicator (cases) has been rising sharply for about 10-14, so if we were going to start seeing this show up in deaths it happens to be about the right time. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 25, 2020, 10:13:05 AM
Oh, and in case anyone is still on the "people are dying from other causes and it's being called COVID", I recommend a revisit to the CDC Excess Deaths analysis:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm)

Their data only goes to June 13 so far, and the freely admit their data is incomplete because as they state "NOTE: Data in recent weeks are incomplete. Only 60% of death records are submitted to NCHS within 10 days of the date of death, and completeness varies by jurisdiction." So if anything, they're undercounting the actual known deaths that have occurred. 

But they say that as of the week ending June 13, there are somewhere between 110K and 154K excess deaths since Feb 1. Their own data only ascribes 108K to COVID-19 by June 13. 

So we still have a mystery that somewhere between 2K and 46K extra people died "of something" than those we are counting as COVID-19 that wouldn't have died in any normal year by this time. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 25, 2020, 10:19:11 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 25, 2020, 10:13:05 AM
Oh, and in case anyone is still on the "people are dying from other causes and it's being called COVID", I recommend a revisit to the CDC Excess Deaths analysis:

that would go against the current death rate trend so that theory has no merit
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 25, 2020, 10:25:53 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 25, 2020, 10:19:11 AM
that would go against the current death rate trend so that theory has no merit
Not really... The shape of the excess deaths mirrors the shape of the COVID-19 data, so there's no incongruity there. 


(https://i.imgur.com/RrhCQKs.png)

I'm talking more about the overall numbers. I think there are a lot of people who believe the 125K number attributed to COVID-19 is MUCH higher than actual. I think that's entirely backwards. If anything, it's more likely that we've undercounted COVID-19 deaths than overcounted.  

It doesn't refute the fact that deaths from COVID-19, whether we've over or undercounted, have been declining for the last 9 weeks from the peak.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 25, 2020, 10:35:47 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 25, 2020, 09:31:00 AM
It likely will be. I'm meeting with my advisor in 30 minutes to pick his brain.
Brain picked. I'm staying put.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on June 25, 2020, 11:05:49 AM
https://apnews.com/753ed7dc88ec5ce8906967f268d78b99 (https://apnews.com/753ed7dc88ec5ce8906967f268d78b99)


Virus cases surge among the young, endangering older adults
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 25, 2020, 11:07:54 AM
Dumbass kids.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on June 25, 2020, 11:18:38 AM
I'd guessing that in 10 years we will read articles and family therapists will be working on issues where a grandchild brought COVID to grandma, she passed and now aunts/uncles/cousins blame them and the family has become split.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 25, 2020, 11:39:53 AM
I sold some I thought were sensitive to another virus surge and exercised some options that I had to do before September anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 25, 2020, 01:18:52 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 25, 2020, 11:07:54 AM
Dumbass kids.
dumbass older adults that interact with kids
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 25, 2020, 01:50:15 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 25, 2020, 01:18:52 PM
dumbass older adults that interact with kids
Not by choice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 25, 2020, 01:51:18 PM
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-cases/coronavirus-may-have-infected-10-times-more-americans-than-reported-cdc-says-idUSKBN23W2PU (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-cases/coronavirus-may-have-infected-10-times-more-americans-than-reported-cdc-says-idUSKBN23W2PU)


I'll take this as a positive.



WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Government experts believe more than 20 million Americans could have contracted the coronavirus, 10 times more than official counts, indicating many people without symptoms have or have had the disease, senior administration officials said.

The estimate, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is based on serology testing used to determine the presence of antibodies that show whether an individual has had the disease, the officials said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 25, 2020, 02:24:37 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 25, 2020, 01:51:18 PM
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-cases/coronavirus-may-have-infected-10-times-more-americans-than-reported-cdc-says-idUSKBN23W2PU (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-cases/coronavirus-may-have-infected-10-times-more-americans-than-reported-cdc-says-idUSKBN23W2PU)


I'll take this as a positive.



WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Government experts believe more than 20 million Americans could have contracted the coronavirus, 10 times more than official counts, indicating many people without symptoms have or have had the disease, senior administration officials said.

The estimate, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is based on serology testing used to determine the presence of antibodies that show whether an individual has had the disease, the officials said.
It's a positive if true. Because that means one gigantic thing:

The likely TRUE infection fatality rate is somewhere in the range of 1/10th the case fatality rate, putting it down towards 0.5%. That's on the lower bound of what I think most "experts" were really coming up with. 

The downside is that 20M people is still only about 7% of the US... If the opinions that you need to get to 70% infection rate to reach herd immunity are correct, we're only a tenth of the way there. 

200M infections * 0.5% IFR = 1M deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 25, 2020, 02:31:36 PM
I also take this as a positive

we either need to get a vaccine or go have one wild party
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 25, 2020, 03:47:59 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 25, 2020, 01:50:15 PM
Not by choice.
older adults can't lock the door?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 25, 2020, 04:13:24 PM
Another bad number from GA on new cases, 1714, and 47 deaths.

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional/georgia-shifts-overflow-beds-southward-amid-rural-virus-outbreaks/fJzMvNN49jAKVXkdYifJgJ/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional/georgia-shifts-overflow-beds-southward-amid-rural-virus-outbreaks/fJzMvNN49jAKVXkdYifJgJ/)





Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on June 25, 2020, 04:38:06 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 25, 2020, 11:07:54 AM
Dumbass kids.
(https://i.imgur.com/WB2vXAQ.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 25, 2020, 04:41:08 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 25, 2020, 04:13:24 PM
Another bad number from GA on new cases, 1714, and 47 deaths.

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional/georgia-shifts-overflow-beds-southward-amid-rural-virus-outbreaks/fJzMvNN49jAKVXkdYifJgJ/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional/georgia-shifts-overflow-beds-southward-amid-rural-virus-outbreaks/fJzMvNN49jAKVXkdYifJgJ/)


  • California (Population: 39,747,267)
  • Texas (Population: 29,087,070)
  • Florida (Population: 21,646,155)
  • New York (Population: 19,491,339)
  • Pennsylvania (Population: 12,813,969)
  • Illinois (Population: 12,700,381)
  • Ohio (Population: 11,718,568)
  • Georgia (Population: 10,627,767)




Migrant workers might be a big component.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 25, 2020, 04:43:16 PM
White people might be a big component.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 25, 2020, 04:50:09 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 25, 2020, 04:41:08 PM
Migrant workers might be a big component.
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 25, 2020, 04:43:16 PM
White people might be a big component. 
true and true
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 25, 2020, 04:53:13 PM
Humans are a pretty big component. 

Gaia should do away with them...

Seems she's trying hard right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 25, 2020, 05:13:29 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 25, 2020, 04:43:16 PM
White people might be a big component. 
No shit?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 25, 2020, 06:28:31 PM
Guys, this delayed, into-the-rural-areas news is exactly what I told you all would happen.  It's inevitable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 25, 2020, 08:05:20 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 25, 2020, 04:53:13 PM
Humans are a pretty big component.

Gaia should do away with them...

Seems she's trying hard right now.
Nope wait'll she starts blasting those zits and Yellowstone blows
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 25, 2020, 09:59:57 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 25, 2020, 06:28:31 PM
Guys, this delayed, into-the-rural-areas news is exactly what I told you all would happen.  It's inevitable.
Yes. You and virtually everyone else.  even youR buddy “ orange man bad “ lol. 

don’t you recall?   They said we have to open back up, some places have not been effected yet. Some places are less densely populated. We are going to have hot spots.  We are going have flare ups. We will take action and help those places when it happens.  We need to protect our most vulnerable.   But we have to smartly start to open.  

I heard that from many “ leaders “ and talking heads.  Dozens of times So- they called it. In fact I would say it was rather obvious.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 25, 2020, 10:28:33 PM
Hot spots? Flare ups?

We just passed the largest single day case count nationally, ever.

This isn't isolated hot spots or flare ups. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 25, 2020, 11:06:58 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 25, 2020, 10:28:33 PM
Hot spots? Flare ups?

We just passed the largest single day case count nationally, ever.

This isn't isolated hot spots or flare ups.
I have been involved with numerous situations over the last few days of employees who have tested positive.  While they are mostly working from home- many if not most of them are wearing masks and being careful.  They are all young35 or less.  Most are asymptomatic and/ or fine with minor symptoms.   

as long as the death rate holds steady - I view thi as inevitable.  Closing things down would only help marginally, and would be fatal economically 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 25, 2020, 11:09:55 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 25, 2020, 11:06:58 PM
I have been involved with numerous situations over the last few days of employees who have tested positive.  While they are mostly working from home- many if not most of them are wearing masks and being careful.  They are all young35 or less.  Most are asymptomatic and/ or fine with minor symptoms. 

as long as the death rate holds steady - I view thi as inevitable.  Closing things down would only help marginally, and would be fatal economically
thats kinda my view also

if the death rate holds where it is a high case rate isnt the worst thing on earth
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 26, 2020, 12:18:55 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/QLJ05gM.png)

Arizona ICU bed % usage.....the gray is running out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on June 26, 2020, 01:04:03 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 26, 2020, 12:18:55 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/QLJ05gM.png)

Arizona ICU bed % usage.....the gray is running out.
Mom and dad called today. Still safe in Tucson. Mostly they stay at home. Mom has beautiful white teeth, mostly thanks to my brother in the Midwest who is a dentist. But she ventured into a dental office in Tucson for cleaning. If you are American and elderly, stay home, even if your 1,500 miles away family cannot see you. Stay home! We will never see you if you keep going out! You people who don't stay home wear your mask when in close quarters with others. 
Thank you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 26, 2020, 08:21:07 AM
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/06/26/883477681/this-coronavirus-doesnt-change-quickly-and-thats-good-news-for-vaccine-makers (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/06/26/883477681/this-coronavirus-doesnt-change-quickly-and-thats-good-news-for-vaccine-makers)

Scientists are monitoring the virus that causes COVID-19 for genetic changes that could make a vaccine ineffective. But so far, they're not seeing any.

"There's nothing alarming about the way the coronavirus is mutating or the speed at which it's mutating," says Emma Hodcroft (https://www.biozentrum.unibas.ch/research/researchgroups/group/unit/neher/), a molecular epidemiologist at the University of Basel in Switzerland. "We don't think this will be a problem [for vaccines] in the short term."

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 26, 2020, 10:45:40 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 25, 2020, 11:06:58 PM
I have been involved with numerous situations over the last few days of employees who have tested positive.  While they are mostly working from home- many if not most of them are wearing masks and being careful.  They are all young35 or less.  Most are asymptomatic and/ or fine with minor symptoms. 

as long as the death rate holds steady - I view thi as inevitable.  Closing things down would only help marginally, and would be fatal economically
Again, I'm not saying we close things down.

I don't think this happened just because "we opened up", I think this happened because things opened up and people chose to be idiots with their behavior.

There's a wave of resignations and early retirements of county health officials due to backlash (https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/22/us/health-officials-threats-coronavirus/index.html). Here in Orange County, our county health director resigned after someone doxxed her home address in a public meeting, leading to protests outside her house and even at least one death threat over her putting in a mask requirement. Her replacement rescinded the order. Now we have a statewide mandate, but I doubt the Orange County authorities will lift a finger to enforce or even encourage it. In Texas, the governor is "pausing" reopening, but isn't requiring masks (https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-announces-temporary-pause-of-additional-reopening-phases). Just "encouraging", which we've seen ain't gonna do sh!t.

This isn't even a left-right issue. This is a bunch of people who desperately want their lives to be "normal" again and so they don't WANT to change their behavior. And that's especially true of the young people, many of whom won't have serious effects but by increasing the spread make it more likely their actions will lead to more vulnerable populations being infected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 26, 2020, 11:07:55 AM
BTW the one area I agree is that if the deaths don't increases, I'm nowhere near as concerned about the case numbers.

This week and next should give us more information. As I mentioned, Tuesday was higher than the previous Tuesday, Wednesday was the same as the previous Wednesday, and then yesterday was another tick down from the previous Thursday. So it's not pointing--yet--to the 7-day moving average number on deaths starting to rise. I'm very worried that it will, but it hasn't yet. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 26, 2020, 11:10:33 AM
I take it back... Texas just DID reverse some of the openings... Still no statewide mask mandate, but bars are now closed and dine-in restaurants reduced to 50% capacity. 

https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-takes-executive-action-to-contain-spread-of-covid-19 (https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-takes-executive-action-to-contain-spread-of-covid-19)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 26, 2020, 11:14:38 AM
Illinois opens up dining in today, among other things. Dining in will be at 25% capacity. It's a rainy day. We'll see.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 26, 2020, 11:32:16 AM
What would be the difference in repeatedly encouraging mask wearing and mandating it as a requirement?

IN practical terms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 26, 2020, 12:09:31 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 26, 2020, 11:32:16 AM
What would be the difference in repeatedly encouraging mask wearing and mandating it as a requirement?

IN practical terms.
There are a couple of things...


In practical terms, they ARE different even if you don't plan to throw people who refuse to wear masks in jail or fine them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 26, 2020, 12:12:27 PM
I think the difference would be slight in practice.  I think repeated encouragement at every chance would be a good step.  I'd allow private businesses to admit or refuse as they wish.  I struggle with having it mandated without force of law.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on June 26, 2020, 12:13:23 PM
You could fine businesses and they would force it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 26, 2020, 12:26:34 PM
The problem with allowing businesses to decide on their own is that too frequently it will result in lowest common denominator policies. 

Each business will ask themselves two questions:



There are some of the latter, I'm sure. But which group is bigger? Which group will businesses pander to? 

And then socially, when people see others around them NOT wearing masks, the social pressure for themselves to wear masks is diminished. So people who are on the fence might not wear them. There will be people who kinda don't want to wear a mask but will if it's necessary, but will take it off "because they're not making me wear it in here."

Nobody wants to wear a mask. *I* don't want to wear a mask. It's hot, it fogs up my glasses, and I'd much prefer to not have it. 



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 26, 2020, 12:32:45 PM
The problem is that Loews or whomever is not set up to evict people who take their mask off, or even prevent people from coming into the store.  The Kroger near me had/has senior hour from 7-8 AM, only seniors allowed, supposedly, but they said their security guard didn't show up, so the store had plenty of 30 year olds in it.  Later the security guard wasn't preventing anyone from entering.  Later he disappeared entirely.

What does a store do if I put a mask on to gain entry and then take it off?  Throw me out physically?

Voluntary compliance is probably 50-70% anyway.  Making frequent and hard requests might improve that some, and making it mandatory could lead to other problems.

I'm in favor of getting as many as possible to wear a mask.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 26, 2020, 12:46:57 PM
A good analogy would be indoor smoking bans. 

Back in the late 90s to early 2000s, literally EVERYONE (even smokers) knew that smoking was bad for you, that it causes lung cancer, and that being in smoke-filled indoor spaces was bad for others' health as well. 

But restaurants almost universally had smoking sections (and the smell didn't remain there) and bars allowed smoking. 

Because they had three groups of customers:



Groups 1/2 together made up the overwhelming majority, even though group #1 might have been a minority, there just wasn't enough social pressure to keep from harming everyone.

Then California banned smoking in public places. Most other states eventually followed. Places that don't ban it (if any still exist) now have enough social pressure that if a restaurant or bar was explicitly non-smoking without being required, it likely wouldn't affect their business at all.

Social pressure changed, and the change ended up improving things for all of us. Smoking is still not illegal. But it's unclear that we would have gotten here without the indoor smoking bans.

I view the lockdowns in much the same way. I honestly believe that if a bunch of states didn't lock down, this thing would have exploded because Americans aren't good at taking "encouragement" to do the right thing. But the goal of the lockdown wasn't to stay locked down forever--it was to change behavior and social pressure such that when things reopened, people were being careful and appreciated the dangers. As you mentioned yourself, CD, Georgia "reopened" but it didn't seem to change much at first--people realized that they needed to be careful. Now it appears they've relaxed, and probably relaxed too much. 

That's where I think we are with mask orders. People seem to think that reopening means the danger has passed, and that if they're young and healthy there's no reason to have to wear a mask. The social pressure could quickly swing to the point where non-mask is the default, which endangers everyone, even those who choose to wear them. 


With masks being an encouragement, it tends to come down to a personal risk/reward behavior decision, and for each individual business it comes down to a "which customer group am I least afraid of pissing off" decision. When the importance is about societal spread, and maybe that means we need to take the decision-making power out of their hands until people realize that it's a good idea to wear a mask even if it's not comfortable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 26, 2020, 12:55:55 PM
https://www.ajc.com/news/local/atlanta-office-ghost-towns-wait-and-wait-and-wait-for-workers-return/hcxWy3Hd2LmqG7IEc70VdL/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/local/atlanta-office-ghost-towns-wait-and-wait-and-wait-for-workers-return/hcxWy3Hd2LmqG7IEc70VdL/)


Apparently the office workers are staying home still.  The protests probably helped spread this thing, the timing works.  And no doubt folks thinking "it's over" helped the spread, no doubt about it.

Most folks I encounter out and about are being sensible, nearly everyone, but I'm not going to parties and nightclubs etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 26, 2020, 01:02:44 PM
Ouch.

Surprise Birthday Party Results In 18 Coronavirus Cases For 1 North Texas Family (https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2020/06/25/surprise-birthday-party-coronavirus-cases-texas-family/)

Apparently 25 people were at the party. Asymptomatic carrier (host of the party) spread it to 7 of the guests, who then spread it to an additional 10 family members as it radiated out. 

At least one is still in ICU... Hope he gets better. 

I can't even begin to imagine what I'd be feeling if I'd been the host of that party. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 26, 2020, 01:07:35 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 26, 2020, 01:02:44 PM
Ouch.

Surprise Birthday Party Results In 18 Coronavirus Cases For 1 North Texas Family (https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2020/06/25/surprise-birthday-party-coronavirus-cases-texas-family/)

Apparently 25 people were at the party. Asymptomatic carrier (host of the party) spread it to 7 of the guests, who then spread it to an additional 10 family members as it radiated out.

At least one is still in ICU... Hope he gets better.

I can't even begin to imagine what I'd be feeling if I'd been the host of that party.
Nothing, because you are smart enough to not do it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 26, 2020, 01:08:27 PM
TALLAHASSEE — The Florida Department of Health (DOH), in order to provide more comprehensive data, releases a report on COVID-19 cases in Florida once per day. The DOH COVID-19 dashboard is also providing updates once per day. The state also provides a report detailing surveillance data for every Florida county, which is available here (https://lnks.gd/l/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJidWxsZXRpbl9saW5rX2lkIjoxMDAsInVyaSI6ImJwMjpjbGljayIsImJ1bGxldGluX2lkIjoiMjAyMDA2MjYuMjM1NTE0NjEiLCJ1cmwiOiJodHRwOi8vd3cxMS5kb2guc3RhdGUuZmwudXMvY29tbS9fcGFydG5lcnMvYWN0aW9uL3JlcG9ydF9hcmNoaXZlL2NvdW50eS9jb3VudHlfcmVwb3J0c19sYXRlc3QucGRmIn0.SSzqcQsIILOmHM62ONdllZnGYBYwyb1-hMXmdKVD1Z8/s/1121549084/br/80367529315-l).
 
Test results for more than 71,400 individuals were reported to DOH as of midnight, on Thursday, June 25. Today, as reported at 11 a.m., there are:
On June 25, 13.05 percent of new cases** tested positive.
There are a total of 122,960 Florida cases*** with 3,366 deaths related to COVID-19.




12.5 percent positive is not good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 26, 2020, 01:26:04 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 25, 2020, 11:09:55 PM
thats kinda my view also

if the death rate holds where it is a high case rate isnt the worst thing on earth
I read somewhere this morning that Houston has run out of hospital capacity to treat COVID cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 26, 2020, 01:27:11 PM
Florida closed bars today, in response to the rapid rise over the past couple of weeks. 

I'm trying to dig for demographics of all of these new cases, rather than rely on what I read on news sites.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 26, 2020, 01:32:23 PM
Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2912%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F78ca26c6-33d7-425f-bb1d-c45c2e160573_1600x530.png&t=1593183423&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1c37-3d0001017000&sig=MHg9fnJ_O9SbTWZHClAR6A--~C) (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUtuOrCAQ_JrhTSM3Lw8-bE5yfsN0Q-uQVXABd3b26w_q00kIVPpWnSoMZFpCfI97SJkdieLk7KjEIDvesYIs73XPXJrmSLSBW8ccD2L7gaszkF3wZ4PQmg_sOXbIOSKCUn2rpLQWWqlaKQRxQDLATpoJDuvIGxqDX9_XYLaOz5z39JAfD_G3HGN9nQ5MGcxnbcJWQm6Dhco7UzbPs2Ra3ebyQ_yZy8QcCvi6gfxYQrBnYp32GJZIKblvKvGUifbSe5MJfdLpk7BceJhPKvlYUaMRTa8qBJCVkh1Vg-Z9BRalQOq6oVd1kjVs8Bs8vNK9YZlxy3LBa910wa43IFrTVkWRrlJCzxUit5VR2hRl2kZ3cipP86NlU-9-YW4UjWiaVrS80VoNNa9nfLX9r3uheKhmW8R_8rA4RvC2xuiWJZWChGZZA8Jae8qnW1Op2g7v8nsiD7iSvY3Mt_OXL_m90-jplVbKmeIdLO7qgTcDZ4XQhvIF_LiF6J1frEs7FDP-AXlOv7Y)
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2912%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F9cbddd93-cb3b-4f85-a5cf-2e8627ddda1b_1600x992.png&t=1593183423&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1c37-3d0001017000&sig=RcoFhQa_8yV7IxQ.RXzzsA--~C) (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUtuOpSAQ_JrjmwYQFB58mGyyv2G6oXXIKDiAe_bM1y8enzYhUOlLVacLC4XWmF7TEXNpzkxp9m6SwvQjH5uKHNdKNz7PSyLawW9TSSc1x4mbt1B8DFeDUIqb5nOSgwRYSDitpTbMYM8kLhyUWZQdCJtLZobTeQqWphi215u42abPUo786D8e4nc91oUun5gL2K_Oxr2G_A4r1XehYj-vknnzuy8P8WupjCVW8H2D_mON0V2JbT5SXBPl7P9QjedCdNTeW0yoS05dgvXC035RzaeWmEK0WrYI0LeyH6k1iusWHPYCaRyNll3uO9jhJwZ45nvCynGv5Q3f4-Y3NBadc6ZvLfbYykWrFpRdWkF6EGNNAceZD4z9NUZ0R1gbPwkmGBvEwJlS0nS8W_A56B__RPGQbF_Ff-tp0pQguA6TX9dcCzLadYsIWxeoXG7NtWo_gy-vmQLgRu42stzOv30pr4OmQM-8USmU7mB1VxnODG-qoIv1C4Rpjyn4sDqfD6hm_AOA3MEP)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on June 26, 2020, 01:33:48 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 26, 2020, 01:02:44 PM
Ouch.

Surprise Birthday Party Results In 18 Coronavirus Cases For 1 North Texas Family (https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2020/06/25/surprise-birthday-party-coronavirus-cases-texas-family/)

Apparently 25 people were at the party. Asymptomatic carrier (host of the party) spread it to 7 of the guests, who then spread it to an additional 10 family members as it radiated out.

At least one is still in ICU... Hope he gets better.

I can't even begin to imagine what I'd be feeling if I'd been the host of that party.


as I said yesterday, I think there will be families torn apart because a grandchild brought it to grandma... and she died.

Young people are where the cases are spiking.  They feel immune.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 26, 2020, 01:41:59 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 26, 2020, 01:07:35 PM
Nothing, because you are smart enough to not do it.
Yeah, but you never know. Obviously I wouldn't be hosting a 25-person party, but that doesn't mean there's no risk.

We had my in-laws over for Father's Day. It was only 7 people in total (me & my wife, them, and the kids). We did our best to distance and be responsible, didn't touch/hug, etc. But they were over for dinner, so we had a meal, passed things across the table, etc. Given that they're pretty isolated and haven't gotten to see the kids for months, we thought we'd be ok.

It was a risk, but we felt it was a minimal risk. I'd have hated for anything bad to have come from it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 26, 2020, 01:42:28 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 26, 2020, 01:26:04 PM
I read somewhere this morning that Houston has run out of hospital capacity to treat COVID cases.
They are implementing emergency plans which will add more capacity

state wide there is no problem but its tight here in Houston
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 26, 2020, 01:59:02 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 26, 2020, 01:41:59 PM
Yeah, but you never know. Obviously I wouldn't be hosting a 25-person party, but that doesn't mean there's no risk.

We had my in-laws over for Father's Day. It was only 7 people in total (me & my wife, them, and the kids). We did our best to distance and be responsible, didn't touch/hug, etc. But they were over for dinner, so we had a meal, passed things across the table, etc. Given that they're pretty isolated and haven't gotten to see the kids for months, we thought we'd be ok.

It was a risk, but we felt it was a minimal risk. I'd have hated for anything bad to have come from it.
We were invited to a friends' home yesterday, and we went. There were more people than I expected, but we all sat outside and there was little to no contact.

As a precaution, I scheduled a test for Monday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 26, 2020, 02:18:52 PM
Geeze, fellows, all we can do is what we individually can manage, and I'm sure everyone here understands what that means.  This isn't good at all.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 26, 2020, 02:29:44 PM
I regret going last night - had no idea there would be more people than just us. We didn't stay very long, but the damage (might be) is done.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 26, 2020, 02:32:53 PM
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/26/883931594/swedish-disease-expert-says-who-covid-19-warning-is-a-total-mistake (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/26/883931594/swedish-disease-expert-says-who-covid-19-warning-is-a-total-mistake)

Sweden has about twice as many deaths per capita as does Georgia, so far.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 26, 2020, 04:31:53 PM
“A risk for you is not just isolated for you,” Fauci warned young people Friday. “You are innocently and inadvertently propagating the process of a pandemic.”

He added: “The chances are that if you get infected, you’re going to infect someone else.”

Fauci went on to note that “the overwhelming majority” of new cases in the last several weeks are “young people.”


“Likely the people out in crowds, enjoying themselves—no blame there—understandably,” Fauci said. “But when you do that, you are part of a process. When you get infected, you will infect someone else who will infect someone else and ultimately you will infect someone who is vulnerable.”


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 26, 2020, 04:34:01 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 26, 2020, 02:29:44 PM
I regret going last night - had no idea there would be more people than just us. We didn't stay very long, but the damage (might be) is done.
Take blood thinners or statins .
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 26, 2020, 05:08:36 PM
The White House had a press briefing on corona for the first time in a while. No Trump, a lot of Mike Pence. He again talked about what a great job they've done. I don't understand this strategy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 26, 2020, 05:19:15 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on June 26, 2020, 05:08:36 PM
The White House had a press briefing on corona for the first time in a while. No Trump, a lot of Mike Pence. He again talked about what a great job they've done. I don't understand this strategy.
I watched this and that wasnt their message at all

I dont understand why sharing info and encouraging masks and distancing is a bad strategy

the job of fighting this virus is largely up to the governors of each state
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 26, 2020, 06:10:07 PM
Well, the last few days have not looked good.  Not many positives outside of the Northeast.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 26, 2020, 06:11:51 PM
The only positive I see in the Florida stuff is the fact that the new spike is mostly millennials. Hopefully they stay away from older people. Closing the bars was the right move for the Governors in Florida and Texas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 26, 2020, 07:22:27 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 26, 2020, 06:11:51 PM
The only positive I see in the Florida stuff is the fact that the new spike is mostly millennials. Hopefully they stay away from older people. Closing the bars was the right move for the Governors in Florida and Texas.
considering I have not been in a bar in 20 years I will cope very well
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 26, 2020, 07:31:29 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 26, 2020, 10:45:40 AM
Again, I'm not saying we close things down.

I don't think this happened just because "we opened up", I think this happened because things opened up and people chose to be idiots with their behavior.
This is where good leadership would have helped.  Be the parent, be the bad guy, and tell people while things open up slowly and gradually, the spread is just as bad and will be.  

The masses see on their facebook feed that their state is now "open" and stuff is actually open, they mindlessly go back out into the world.  This is inevitable and can be combated by good leadership.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 26, 2020, 07:47:18 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 26, 2020, 06:11:51 PM
The only positive I see in the Florida stuff is the fact that the new spike is mostly millennials. Hopefully they stay away from older people. Closing the bars was the right move for the Governors in Florida and Texas.
DeSantis said today the average age is 33 for the new cases.  

there is definitely a demographic impact here- more so than political IMHO. And anyone who claims the protests did not contribute is not credible. 

now that my work force is seeing cases/ the trend is easy to see.  Younger crowd, nearly all major cities, many who are known to be wearing masks and many who openly protested and encouraged others to. Stupid and virus do not discriminate. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 26, 2020, 07:53:38 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 26, 2020, 06:11:51 PM
The only positive I see in the Florida stuff is the fact that the new spike is mostly millennials. Hopefully they stay away from older people. Closing the bars was the right move for the Governors in Florida and Texas.
I was looking for positives, but all I could find was more positive test results.  haha...sob

I really don't see how we football here, fellas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 26, 2020, 07:57:37 PM
LINCOLN, Neb. -- The number of COVID-19 deaths continues to rise in Nebraska, jumping by 83 so far in the month of June. However, the State's 1.4 percent fatality rate among lab-confirmed cases is the fourth lowest in the country.

Nebraska had 174 COVID-19 related deaths on May 31, that number has now risen to 257, according to data from the Department of Health and Human Services. It's an average of between three and four deaths per day.

US Fatality Rates

Five Highest
Connecticut: 9.4%
Michigan: 8.9%
New York: 8.0%
New Jersey: 7.7%
Pennsylvania: 7.4%

Five Lowest
Utah: 0.87%
South Dakota: 1.31%
Arkansas: 1.38%
Nebraska: 1.41%
Tennessee: 1.49%

More than half of the fatalities in Nebraska can be attributed to three counties. With 160 total deaths, Douglas (82), Hall (44), and Dakota (34) counties account for about 62 percent of COVID-19 deaths in the State.

Perhaps the most startling statistic related to COVID-19 deaths is how wildly the fatality rate varies based on age group. For example, there have been about 2,000 cases in Nebraskans 19 years old or younger, but only one death. Nebraskans 75 years old or older have accounted for 121 deaths, but only 742 cases. That's a fatality rate of 16.3 percent.


Nebraska Fatality Rates

Age: Total Deaths (Fatality Rate)

0-19: 1 (0.05%)
20-34: 3 (0.05%)
35-44: 5 (0.14%)
45-54: 16 (0.47%)
55-64: 46 (2.0%)
65-74: 65 (6.5%)
75-84: 64 (14.4%)
85-Plus: 57 (19.1%)

Nebraska has also broken down the data by gender, with 55 percent of deaths in males and 45 percent in females. In terms of total COVID-19 cases, it's a 50-50 split between men and women.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 26, 2020, 08:12:47 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 26, 2020, 07:31:29 PM
This is where good leadership would have helped.  Be the parent, be the bad guy, and tell people while things open up slowly and gradually, the spread is just as bad and will be. 

The masses see on their facebook feed that their state is now "open" and stuff is actually open, they mindlessly go back out into the world.  This is inevitable and can be combated by good leadership. 
Facebook? GREAT source.

Good leadership? From the WHO? From Xihina? From the CDC? From Fauci, Mr. "no need to wear a mask" guy?

We still don't know jack about this disease, but not knowing jack is knowing more than we did in February, while our president was busy getting impeached for no reason.

Just stay home man. You work for government and you're safe from all things.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 26, 2020, 08:32:41 PM
what would a good leader have done?

which mayor, governor, or national leader was good and saved their people? 

the Governor of Utah because their fatality rate is 0.87%???
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 26, 2020, 09:14:01 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 26, 2020, 07:53:38 PM
I was looking for positives, but all I could find was more positive test results.  haha...sob

I really don't see how we football here, fellas.
Clemson announced Friday that 14 football players tested positive for the coronavirus over the past week, bringing the total number of cases on the team over the past month to 37 -- roughly one-third of the roster.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 26, 2020, 09:20:38 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 26, 2020, 08:32:41 PM
what would a good leader have done?

which mayor, governor, or national leader was good and saved their people?

the Governor of Utah because their fatality rate is 0.87%???
For Arizona, and you may not know this, because everyone's dealing with their own shit, local leaders (mayors) were FORBIDDEN from instituting required mask-wearing ordinances.  It wasn't just a case of the state doing nothing, leaving it to each city and town - our governor actively prevented them from taking action,no matter how bad their area was.

The governor has suddenly reversed basically everything he's previously said, suddenly appearing on camera wearing a mask, etc - basically waiting until the ship is sinking to acknowledge his ankles are getting wet.

Add that to back in early May, where the state tasked a team from ASU with gathering COVID data, was provided the data, didn't like what they saw, then produced their own, invented data, which was obviously different and wrong.  All of this was immediately known (not even good at cover-ups).  

Our governor is trying to be Trump Jr and the results are precisely obvious.  

Instead of doing what many of you have suggested a wise tactic nationally - treating each region in accordance to it's number of cases, AZ has been acting as one big, uniform place.  Yuma is at max capacity and sending people to Phoenix.  As per the graph I shared yesterday, it's getting bad.  

And Mr. Brilliant himself, Trump, holds a rally at a church in Phoenix, full of people, no masks, all sitting together, laughing at his "kung flu" line like it's music to their ears.  

Bars have been open under the guise of restaurants because they serve food.  No specifics to stop them, no enforcement if they're breaking rules, just more spread. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 26, 2020, 09:26:37 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 26, 2020, 08:12:47 PM
Facebook? GREAT source.
While you froth at the mouth, yes, the masses get their news from poor sources.  Not sure what it has to do with me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 26, 2020, 09:28:44 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/ftprWYv.png)

2 weeks after shelter in place order lifted.....BOOM!  Why was it lifted?  The line wasn't going down.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 26, 2020, 09:41:27 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 26, 2020, 08:32:41 PM
what would a good leader have done?

which mayor, governor, or national leader was good and saved their people?

the Governor of Utah because their fatality rate is 0.87%???
so, we know Zona does NOT have a good leader

which leader do you think has done a good job?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on June 26, 2020, 09:45:12 PM
Indy 500 will allow up to 50% capacity at Aug 23rd race.   I likely won't go but mostly because it will be hot as hell.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 26, 2020, 10:01:14 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 26, 2020, 09:41:27 PM
so, we know Zona does NOT have a good leader

which leader do you think has done a good job?
I think Dewine has been rather impressive
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 26, 2020, 10:02:27 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 26, 2020, 09:41:27 PM

which leader do you think has done a good job?
I think Newsom started well. But he lost the narrative during reopening. I think he could have done better. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 26, 2020, 10:03:24 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 26, 2020, 09:20:38 PM
For Arizona, and you may not know this, because everyone's dealing with their own shit, local leaders (mayors) were FORBIDDEN from instituting required mask-wearing ordinances.  It wasn't just a case of the state doing nothing, leaving it to each city and town - our governor actively prevented them from taking action,no matter how bad their area was.

The governor has suddenly reversed basically everything he's previously said, suddenly appearing on camera wearing a mask, etc - basically waiting until the ship is sinking to acknowledge his ankles are getting wet.

Add that to back in early May, where the state tasked a team from ASU with gathering COVID data, was provided the data, didn't like what they saw, then produced their own, invented data, which was obviously different and wrong.  All of this was immediately known (not even good at cover-ups). 

Our governor is trying to be Trump Jr and the results are precisely obvious. 

Instead of doing what many of you have suggested a wise tactic nationally - treating each region in accordance to it's number of cases, AZ has been acting as one big, uniform place.  Yuma is at max capacity and sending people to Phoenix.  As per the graph I shared yesterday, it's getting bad. 

And Mr. Brilliant himself, Trump, holds a rally at a church in Phoenix, full of people, no masks, all sitting together, laughing at his "kung flu" line like it's music to their ears. 

Bars have been open under the guise of restaurants because they serve food.  No specifics to stop them, no enforcement if they're breaking rules, just more spread.
Orange man bad. Can’t even come up with his own material. From 2015:

(https://i.imgur.com/xC3sJwh.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 26, 2020, 10:12:18 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 26, 2020, 09:41:27 PM
so, we know Zona does NOT have a good leader

which leader do you think has done a good job?
Truth is precious prolly voted for him but he'd never admit it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 26, 2020, 10:18:26 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 26, 2020, 09:41:27 PM
so, we know Zona does NOT have a good leader

which leader do you think has done a good job?
I think our Governor in PA did a great job.

Took a lot of shit for it, too.  But in the end, it appears he was right.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 26, 2020, 10:37:24 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 26, 2020, 10:18:26 PM
I think our Governor in PA did a great job.

Took a lot of shit for it, too.  But in the end, it appears he was right.
How do we judge?  I don’t know the answer. 
I know a lot of people in Michigan are poking fun at Florida but Florida has done substantially better than Michigan and death rates. Pennsylvania not so hot there either
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 26, 2020, 10:38:07 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on June 26, 2020, 10:01:14 PM
I think Dewine has been rather impressive
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 26, 2020, 10:02:27 PM
I think Newsom started well. But he lost the narrative during reopening. I think he could have done better.
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 26, 2020, 10:18:26 PM
I think our Governor in PA did a great job.

Took a lot of shit for it, too.  But in the end, it appears he was right.
so, Ohio, and Cali's Death rates from coronavirus (COVID-19) as of June 26, (per 100,000 people) are pretty good
Pennsylvania not so good

I understand this is not the only measurement of "good"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 26, 2020, 10:41:30 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 26, 2020, 10:38:07 PM
so, Ohio, and Cali's Death rates from coronavirus (COVID-19) as of June 26, (per 100,000 people) are pretty good
Pennsylvania not so good

I understand this is not the only measurement of "good"
I can read that tonite so that's good
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 26, 2020, 10:58:02 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 26, 2020, 10:12:18 PM
Truth is precious prolly voted for him but he'd never admit it
Seriously?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on June 27, 2020, 01:53:32 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 26, 2020, 08:32:41 PM
what would a good leader have done?

which mayor, governor, or national leader was good and saved their people?

the Governor of Utah because their fatality rate is 0.87%???
We don't need to respond to rhetorical questions, especially to someone who actually knows this, so this is more for my frustrations at current events . . .



I am sure I missed something.





Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 27, 2020, 07:25:01 AM
Shifting my focus to Wisconsin (Kenosha County), where we will live for August and September.

The numbers look really good, even though the state is full-on open, with no restrictions at all. Cases and deaths are trending down, and the level of positivity sits at 3 percent.

I haven't been out and about much up there yet, but when I have been, I see a lot of masks. Smart.

We will go to restaurants, but only to eat outside or carry food out. We mostly cook, so going out isn't a big deal to us. We will not be going into bars, just because. No need.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 27, 2020, 07:40:36 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 26, 2020, 09:26:37 PM
While you froth at the mouth, yes, the masses get their news from poor sources.  Not sure what it has to do with me.
Frothing at the mouth? Hardly. Your post just pissed me off for a minute.

The virus task force was formed on January 29 - and at that time we were told by the CDC (and WHO) that the risk was very low. Travel from China was shut down 2 days later, followed by Europe on March 12. The latter should have happened sooner, without question, but we didn't know anything about this virus and China was still covering up their numbers (and still are).

Still, the EU was super-pissed off about the ban, and let everyone know it. Hindsight is 20-20, always. The US had 1600 cases on March 12, and the NCAA canceled its seasons that day.

Advice at the time was to not wear a mask.

I'm not sure what more could have been done in the beginning. The EU isn't sure either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 27, 2020, 08:24:48 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on June 27, 2020, 01:53:32 AM
We don't need to respond to rhetorical questions, especially to someone who actually knows this, so this is more for my frustrations at current events . . .




I am sure I missed something.
the question wasn't rhetorical

was answered simply by others

you're sure you missed something?  so, that wouldn't be good leadership either
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 27, 2020, 08:37:13 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 27, 2020, 07:40:36 AM
Frothing at the mouth? Hardly. Your post just pissed me off for a minute.
So it's just not me and a half a dozen other guys 😎
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 27, 2020, 08:37:52 AM
Just FYI, the "news hour" includes around 30 million people who watch ABC/NBC/CBS and around 10 million who watch ALL cable news outlets.  So, in terms of where most people "get their news" on TV, it is network broadcasting.

I imagine most people also read a newspaper at times and look at other sources of news in line.

The notion that MOST PEOPLE get their news from highly biased sources is incorrect unless you view broadcast news in that vein.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 27, 2020, 08:39:42 AM
In 2020, the global number of Facebook users is expected to reach 1.69 billion, up from 1.34 million in 2014.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 27, 2020, 08:43:07 AM
Some lady on FB was swooning about Cuomo and what a great guy he is and posted his comments that OTHER governors had done poorly ...

I noted that ironically, NY state has the WORST death rate of ANY state.

That unleashed a torrent of vituperation and excuse making.  It was quite entertaining.

Several EU countries have done worse than the US, still.  I don't know how one can measure this realistically because situations differ obviously.

Sweden has far more deaths than does Georgia, about double, on about the same number of cases, and Georgia has done more testing per capita.

There is a lot of current information that doesn't make a lot of sense.

It is clear this is getting worse quickly.  The timing of the protests in GA do coincide with what would be expected in terms of viral spread now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 27, 2020, 08:50:21 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 27, 2020, 08:39:42 AM
In 2020, the global number of Facebook users is expected to reach 1.69 billion, up from 1.34 million in 2014.
No wonder people are walking around with asses the size of a 20 pumpkin :017:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 27, 2020, 09:21:00 AM
MIAMI, FL — Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez announced late Friday night he plans to shut down Miami-area beaches during the upcoming July 4 holiday weekend and possibly longer in response to the recent surge in coronavirus cases.

"After consulting with our county’s public health experts, I will be signing an emergency order on Saturday to close all beaches in Miami-Dade County starting Friday, July 3, and ending Tuesday, July 7," the mayor said in a statement released Friday night.

Florida experienced its largest one-day coronavirus spike by far on Friday with 8,942 new cases and state officials ordered all consumption of on-premises alcohol suspended at bars statewide.

"As we continue to see more COVID-19 positive test results among young adults and rising hospitalizations, I have decided that the only prudent thing to do to tamp down this recent uptick is to crack down on recreational activities that put our overall community at higher risk," Gimenez said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 27, 2020, 09:26:47 AM
I can't understand why beaches would be a particular notable source of contagion.  I surmise this is something he can do to appear to be doing something.

It makes sense that you need a CROWD, preferably in doors, sneezing and talking loudly and coughing with few masks being worn to intercept any of those droplets.  

Beaches?

Shirley folks don't get all that close on beaches???
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 27, 2020, 09:35:13 AM
It's all the younger set. They just don't socially distance, even on beaches, apparently. 

Closing bars to me seems much more effective.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 27, 2020, 09:45:32 AM
beach party bingo isn't nearly as much fun 6 feet apart
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 27, 2020, 10:05:32 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 27, 2020, 09:45:32 AM
beach party bingo isn't nearly as much fun 6 feet apart
Yeah, I imagine some younger folks do "get together" on the beach, but they will do so elsewhere as easily I suspect.

I don't see a beach as being anything but a long thin park.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 27, 2020, 10:31:11 AM
I think there's another aspect to it...

One of the exemptions here in CA on the statewide mask order refers to dine-in restaurants. 




The idea isn't that if you and your friends all want to go out to brunch together, that you should do so and not wear masks. Restaurants/bars are not intended to be opened so that large parties of people not from the same household will congregate together and just happen to be 6' apart from other large parties of people not from the same household. 

This is one of the keys to a beach closure. Young people don't go to the beach alone, and they DEFINITELY don't go with their families--Ew!--they go with their friends. Their friends who live in different households. 

So maybe that group of 6 friends stay 6' away from another group of 6 friends, but again you're mixing households and by doing so drastically increasing the likelihood of spread.

Now, it's entirely possible--probable, even--that many of those groups of young people will still form and have July 4 BBQs at one of their houses instead of going to the beach.

So will it have much of a practical effect? Maybe not. But the issue isn't dad, mom, and their two toddlers going to the beach and staying away from other beachgoers, it's people who are NOT of the same household being close together on the beach, even if they stay apart from other beachgoing groups. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 27, 2020, 11:23:11 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 26, 2020, 10:38:07 PM
so, Ohio, and Cali's Death rates from coronavirus (COVID-19) as of June 26, (per 100,000 people) are pretty good
Pennsylvania not so good

I understand this is not the only measurement of "good"
I firmly believe that if some other states had shut down for just a bit longer the numbers would be as low as PA's are.  Maybe even be on the road to having a football season.

But then there would have been a great wailing and gnashing of teeth because we shut down needlessly.

They say you know it worked if you think it was a huge overreaction. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on June 27, 2020, 11:54:04 AM
Our governor cannot make his mouth say the words, "Wear a mask."

Daddy wouldn't like it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 27, 2020, 12:37:45 PM
We were just out for a walk, I think more people are wearing masks, even when they don't need to.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 27, 2020, 12:41:14 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 27, 2020, 12:37:45 PM
We were just out for a walk, I think more people are wearing masks, even when they don't need to.


Here in PA nearly everyone is wearing a mask.  

I suppose if there's a bright side to getting hit hard, that's it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 27, 2020, 12:56:51 PM
The park was pretty sparsely populated for a Saturday.  There are a lot of groups doing exercises out and about, some pretty large (35 or so folks) but they aren't close together (generally).  We passed a gym advertising that it's open and quite a few folks were in the parking lot with gear, I could not see inside.

Speaking of gyms, I have a notion that is one place younger single folks go to meet other younger single folks, particularly if one is fairly fit.  I have not looked inside an indoor gym, but their normal configuration would be almost ideal for spreading a respiratory illness.

I think of a beach as a linear park, but I can see how they can become crowded on July 4.  I make it a point to avoid crowded beaches anyway.

So, potential areas for COVID spread over the past month could be:

1.  Protests
2.  Gyms
3.  Private larger parties
4.  Beaches and parks
5.  Random encounters
6.  Elevators, public transit, air travel, shopping malls (?)

I guess with item 5 that covers it.  I don't know if one is notably the worst, e.g., I'm not sure any single action would be all that effective at this point (beyond wearing a mask).

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 27, 2020, 01:09:43 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 27, 2020, 12:56:51 PM
The park was pretty sparsely populated for a Saturday.  There are a lot of groups doing exercises out and about, some pretty large (35 or so folks) but they aren't close together (generally).  We passed a gym advertising that it's open and quite a few folks were in the parking lot with gear, I could not see inside.

Speaking of gyms, I have a notion that is one place younger single folks go to meet other younger single folks, particularly if one is fairly fit.  I have not looked inside an indoor gym, but their normal configuration would be almost ideal for spreading a respiratory illness.

I think of a beach as a linear park, but I can see how they can become crowded on July 4.  I make it a point to avoid crowded beaches anyway.

So, potential areas for COVID spread over the past month could be:

1.  Protests
2.  Gyms
3.  Private larger parties
4.  Beaches and parks
5.  Random encounters
6.  Elevators, public transit, air travel, shopping malls (?)

I guess with item 5 that covers it.  I don't know if one is notably the worst, e.g., I'm not sure any single action would be all that effective at this point (beyond wearing a mask).


I belong to a Planet Fitness here in Florida. I go three out of four days and I can tell you the way they have it set up is actually quite well with respect to distancing.  Every other machine is closed down and you have a mandatory cleaning of each machine you use both before and after plus most people are wearing masks with the exception of people doing cardio but they are far far apart from each other
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 27, 2020, 01:13:19 PM
Good to hear, gym reopenings if done properly may not be a significant transmission site.

I didn't mention salons,  barbers, nail polishers, etc.  Should have.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 27, 2020, 01:29:46 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 27, 2020, 01:13:19 PM
I didn't mention salons,  barbers, nail polishers, etc.  Should have.
Everyone's masked up at those places. 

I suspect bars are a major problem, because you can't drink without taking the mask off. And at least for the young people, I doubt they're distancing much when they go. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 27, 2020, 01:32:22 PM
Somehow I managed not to mention bars.  Geesh.

We dined at a very nice Indian place last night we had not tried before, ate outside.  I went inside to check the place out.  Tables had been "distanced" but the bar seating was fixed.  There was one guy at the bar.  The place was pretty crowded, and for good reason.

It's not far from us but we had never tried it before.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 27, 2020, 02:41:17 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 27, 2020, 11:54:04 AM
Our governor cannot make his mouth say the words, "Wear a mask."

Daddy wouldn't like it.
Oklahoma is in phase 3 and doing very well

are you concerned about a reversal
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 27, 2020, 02:48:52 PM
I think it would help a lot of wearing a mask was not politicized.

Too late for that one though.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 27, 2020, 02:55:14 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 27, 2020, 02:41:17 PM
Oklahoma is in phase 3 and doing very well

are you concerned about a reversal
Oklahoma is not exactly doing well.  They started exponential growth more than 2 weeks ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 27, 2020, 03:07:06 PM
I'm sure folks here notice how everything gets politicized.  We had a possible treatment for COVID politicized.  Wearing a mask.  Trying to distance.  Not acting like an idiot.  It almost seems that "we" have to be either A or B, nothing in between, and certainly now C or Z.

With me or agin me.

The Tripartite Commission.  The Gang of Four.  The usurpation of the iniquities.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 27, 2020, 03:29:59 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 27, 2020, 02:55:14 PM
Oklahoma is not exactly doing well.  They started exponential growth more than 2 weeks ago.
yep they have risen all the way up to 3 or 4 hundred new cases a day

which considering they are in phase 3 is very good

their death rate is almost as low as Texas which is also very good
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 27, 2020, 04:09:49 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 27, 2020, 03:29:59 PM
yep they have risen all the way up to 3 or 4 hundred new cases a day

which considering they are in phase 3 is very good

their death rate is almost as low as Texas which is also very good
Death rates lag infection rates by more than 30 days, unfortunately.  Keep this in mind.

If OK was flat, that would be one thing.  It's the exponential growth that concerns me.  100 cases per day two weeks ago, 200 cases per day 1 week ago, 400 per day this week.  Next week I'm expecting OK to hit 600 per day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 27, 2020, 04:17:28 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 27, 2020, 04:09:49 PM
Death rates lag infection rates by more than 30 days, unfortunately.  Keep this in mind.

If OK was flat, that would be one thing.  It's the exponential growth that concerns me.  100 cases per day two weeks ago, 200 cases per day 1 week ago, 400 per day this week.  Next week I'm expecting OK to hit 600 per day.
I dont think you will see deaths rise dramatically just because new cases have risen

we are treating patients now with a variety of things we didnt have 2 months ago
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 27, 2020, 04:49:28 PM
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/nation/2020/06/27/virus-surge-rural-covid/112025552/?utm_source=detroitnews-COVID-19%20Update&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=baseline_greeting&utm_term=list_article_thumb


Interesting to see other countries dealing with this....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 27, 2020, 05:46:29 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 27, 2020, 03:29:59 PM
yep they have risen all the way up to 3 or 4 hundred new cases a day

which considering they are in phase 3 is very good

their death rate is almost as low as Texas which is also very good
What phase a state is in is not an accurate portrayal of how good it's doing.  The number of cases/hospitalizations/deaths is, and if those are trending up or down.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 27, 2020, 05:48:25 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 27, 2020, 04:09:49 PM
Death rates lag infection rates by more than 30 days, unfortunately.  Keep this in mind.

If OK was flat, that would be one thing.  It's the exponential growth that concerns me.  100 cases per day two weeks ago, 200 cases per day 1 week ago, 400 per day this week.  Next week I'm expecting OK to hit 600 per day.
You're wasting your time, he doesn't understand the delay effect.  I tried already.  Dead stick.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 27, 2020, 05:49:59 PM
3,500+ new cases each day here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 27, 2020, 06:17:22 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 27, 2020, 04:09:49 PM
Death rates lag infection rates by more than 30 days, unfortunately.  Keep this in mind.

If OK was flat, that would be one thing.  It's the exponential growth that concerns me.  100 cases per day two weeks ago, 200 cases per day 1 week ago, 400 per day this week.  Next week I'm expecting OK to hit 600 per day.
experience has indicated the average number of days until death is closer to 20 days


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/12/coronavirus-kills-average-185-days/


i (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/12/coronavirus-kills-average-185-days/)f this is true then all the states having a spike in cases should start seeing an increase in deaths about now


Texas started around 5/26/20 but so far the death count has not followed the trend
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 27, 2020, 06:30:27 PM
So, of the things I listed as possible enhancers of COVID, which should be curtailed in your view in a state going higher fast?

You can't deal with protests obviously.  Bars, gyms, nail parlors, hair cuts, restaurants, parks, beaches, elevators ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 27, 2020, 07:12:52 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 27, 2020, 06:17:22 PM
experience has indicated the average number of days until death is closer to 20 days


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/12/coronavirus-kills-average-185-days/


i (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/12/coronavirus-kills-average-185-days/)f this is true then all the states having a spike in cases should start seeing an increase in deaths about now


Texas started around 5/26/20 but so far the death count has not followed the trend
Don't forget there are also delays in reporting deaths.  Typically a patient dies, then the coroner takes over, then they make a report, then that report gets sent to the state, then the state updates their numbers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 27, 2020, 07:16:40 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 27, 2020, 06:17:22 PM
experience has indicated the average number of days until death is closer to 20 days


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/12/coronavirus-kills-average-185-days/


i (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/12/coronavirus-kills-average-185-days/)f this is true then all the states having a spike in cases should start seeing an increase in deaths about now


Texas started around 5/26/20 but so far the death count has not followed the trend
A couple of states are showing concerning blips if you squint hard enough, but not enough that I'm certain of anything. It's not enough that I can't just call it noise.

I say give it until this time next week. If there are meaningful trends occurring in deaths in the bad states for cases (FL/TX/OK/AZ/CA), those states should start showing it by July 4. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 27, 2020, 07:23:47 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 27, 2020, 07:12:52 PM
Don't forget there are also delays in reporting deaths.  Typically a patient dies, then the coroner takes over, then they make a report, then that report gets sent to the state, then the state updates their numbers.

If you look at the 7-day moving average, daily new cases (the first time) peaked Apr 10. Daily deaths effectively peaked on Apr 17 (although it remained high and the moving average went very slightly higher Apr 21).

There was a second blip in the 7-day moving average right around Apr 26. Correspondingly there was a spike in daily deaths during the May 5-7 week which paused the weekly declines in the daily death rate. 

Based on those, statistically we've started to see the effect of spikes in cases around 8-10 days after big spikes in cases. So far we're not seeing that in the states that have started to spike, and nationally all we've seen is the slope of the decline in the daily death moving average decrease and flatten.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 27, 2020, 07:33:03 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 27, 2020, 07:16:40 PM
A couple of states are showing concerning blips if you squint hard enough, but not enough that I'm certain of anything. It's not enough that I can't just call it noise.

I say give it until this time next week. If there are meaningful trends occurring in deaths in the bad states for cases (FL/TX/OK/AZ/CA), those states should start showing it by July 4.
sounds logical to me

again if deaths fail to trend up like new cases this may be a good thing

herd immunity may be possible
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on June 28, 2020, 12:20:22 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 27, 2020, 07:33:03 PM
sounds logical to me

again if deaths fail to trend up like new cases this may be a good thing

herd immunity may be possible
I suspect deaths will rise more slowly in these 4-states simply because the younger people seem to be involved now. In time they will spread it to older people in nursing homes, as some of them catching it will work in nursing homes and go to work asymptomatically, and then increased death rates will start spiking. It is troubling that there is such high ICU occupancy in Houston, so perhaps things will spike very soon. Hope not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 28, 2020, 07:42:07 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 27, 2020, 07:33:03 PM
sounds logical to me

again if deaths fail to trend up like new cases this may be a good thing

herd immunity may be possible
Herd immunity wouldn't be achieved whether deaths go up or stay flat, it's an independent variable hinging on how many get infected and develop antibodies.

Deaths might slightly work counter to HI.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 28, 2020, 08:02:16 AM
I expect more governors to begin backing this thing up, and I suspect it's way too late to matter.  I can't figure what could be shut down that would help much.  You can mandate masks, fine, but what if folks ignore the mandate?

It almost becomes a "mark of resistance" to "Da Man" to ignore it.  I'm a tough guy, no guvmint gonna tell me what tew dew.

Nearly 2,000 new cases reported in GA yesterday.  This is more than a spike.  I had planned to take the wife out to brunch today, I may hold off on that choice.  It's not worth it.  We can walk in the park and be relatively safe.

Fortunately, Atlanta city proper still has relatively fewer cases than the hot spots in Gwinett etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 28, 2020, 10:37:26 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 28, 2020, 08:02:16 AM
I expect more governors to begin backing this thing up, and I suspect it's way too late to matter.  I can't figure what could be shut down that would help much.  You can mandate masks, fine, but what if folks ignore the mandate?

It almost becomes a "mark of resistance" to "Da Man" to ignore it.  I'm a tough guy, no guvmint gonna tell me what tew dew.

Nearly 2,000 new cases reported in GA yesterday.  This is more than a spike.  I had planned to take the wife out to brunch today, I may hold off on that choice.  It's not worth it.  We can walk in the park and be relatively safe.

Fortunately, Atlanta city proper still has relatively fewer cases than the hot spots in Gwinett etc.
I think we are making a lot of assumptions about masks, who is wearing them, who is not, who is getting infected, who is not.

no doubt masks help slow the spread, but again, now that I am seeing people I know getting it, I am telling you they are mask wearers and protesters.   

it is the younger crowd that is driving this.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 28, 2020, 12:13:38 PM
Wearing a mask does little to prevent you from getting it.  I've seen estimates of 5%.

An infected person who wears a mask can cut transmission by 30% (est.)

And yes, we are making a lot of assumptions because the data often are not available.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on June 28, 2020, 12:15:21 PM
isn't there data on countries where masks are socially acceptable vs others?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 28, 2020, 12:16:34 PM
Quote from: Entropy on June 28, 2020, 12:15:21 PM
isn't there data on countries where masks are socially acceptable vs others?
Yup, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, all doing remarkably well for heavily populated countries.

R naught, cut it below one and you have it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 28, 2020, 04:22:24 PM
Buy-in.  

The great thing about the U.S. is our freedom and our attitude to expect it.
The bad thing about the U.S. in a pandemic is our freedom and our attitude to expect it.  

This isn't a time to cite our rights, it's a time to think of others.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 28, 2020, 04:34:50 PM
The exponential increase in cases, whether they immediately become deaths isn't the point, really.  An increase in cases begets further increases in cases, and at some point, among all of this increase, it hits a bubble of at-risk areas, causing the deaths to jump.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 28, 2020, 04:48:55 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 28, 2020, 04:34:50 PM
The exponential increase in cases, whether they immediately become deaths isn't the point, really.  An increase in cases begets further increases in cases, and at some point, among all of this increase, it hits a bubble of at-risk areas, causing the deaths to jump. 
so far that hasnt happened

we need to get positive cases down that for sure but so far the excess in positive cases has not translated into a large increase in deaths

the next few weeks will be interesting
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 28, 2020, 04:57:59 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 28, 2020, 04:48:55 PM
so far that hasnt happened

we need to get positive cases down that for sure but so far the excess in positive cases has not translated into a large increase in deaths
...yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 28, 2020, 05:01:15 PM
Getting tested tomorrow at CVS.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 28, 2020, 05:02:34 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 28, 2020, 05:01:15 PM
Getting tested tomorrow at CVS.
whats the occasion 

are you feeling ok
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 28, 2020, 05:04:29 PM
I'm doing it every two weeks. Why not?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 28, 2020, 05:52:25 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 28, 2020, 05:04:29 PM
I'm doing it every two weeks. Why not?
whats it cost and how invasive is it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 28, 2020, 05:57:31 PM
At CVS, you go to the drive-through and you then swab yourself. It's free with an insurance card and also for the uninsured (that bill will be paid for by taxpayers). There is no limit on the number of tests you can take. 

My wife and I will alternate, every-other week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 28, 2020, 05:59:27 PM
The number of confirmed coronavirus (https://www.foxnews.com/category/health/infectious-disease/coronavirus) cases tied to a popular Michigan college bar has climbed to 85, according to reports.

Local health officials are now advising those who visited Harper's Restaurant and Brew Pub, near Michigan State University's (https://www.foxnews.com/category/us/education/college) campus in Lansing, between June 12 and June 22 to self-quarantine for 14 days and get tested for COVID-19.

“Cases linked to Harper's are currently at 85 total,” the Ingham County Health Department said on its Facebook page Saturday.

Eighty of the cases involve individuals who visited the bar and then tested positive, WLIX-TV (https://www.wilx.com/content/news/COVID-19-cases-associated-with-Harpers-continues-to-climb-571503181.html) reported. Most of those infected have only shown mild symptoms. At least 10 have been asymptomatic.

College students without masks could be seen in photos on social media crowded together on a line to get into Harper's after the bar reopened June 12 when Michigan eased coronavirus restrictions that had shuttered bars and restaurants for three months.

The Detroit Free Press (https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/wayne/2020/06/27/harpers-bar-east-lansing-coronavirus-grosse-pointe/3268551001/?fbclid=IwAR3-KAHd9T8OG42ZgnRbNVHIIGEDa_bhLCFFB9RvJ-N3hGuQaFid-7Qj7ek) reported Sunday that 30 new COVID-19 cases 100 miles away in affluent Grosse Pointe have been linked to the Harper's outbreak.

According to the paper, an individual who went to Harper’s and became infected came in contact with a friend who held a huge house party in Grosse Pointe Woods, where dozens of friends partied without masks and social distancing.

That host was symptomatic during the party and became more ill over the weekend before being tested for COVID-19 on Monday. The next day, he shared that he was positive, according to the paper.





Damn kids. They are going to F this thing up for everyone else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 28, 2020, 06:12:47 PM
What would you close now, if you could, to try and limit this thing?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 28, 2020, 06:23:52 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 28, 2020, 05:57:31 PM
At CVS, you go to the drive-through and you then swab yourself. It's free with an insurance card and also for the uninsured (that bill will be paid for by taxpayers). There is no limit on the number of tests you can take.

My wife and I will alternate, every-other week.
to swab yourself is that just touching the inside of your mouth or do you have to go way up your nose?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 28, 2020, 06:26:38 PM
hospitalizations in Texas declined today for the first time in 18 days

I know its Sunday but heres hoping its a start of a trend
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 28, 2020, 06:42:50 PM
There are two ways to leave a hospital.  Georgia is going ballistic now. 2,225 new cases yesterday.

Hosp. is up as well, not that steeply.  It may respond in a few more days though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 28, 2020, 07:29:56 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 28, 2020, 06:12:47 PM
What would you close now, if you could, to try and limit this thing?
The Chinese Communist Party
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 28, 2020, 10:11:28 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 28, 2020, 05:59:27 PM


College students without masks could be seen in photos on social media crowded together on a line to get into Harper's after the bar reopened June 12 when Michigan eased coronavirus restrictions that had shuttered bars and restaurants for three months.


Damn kids. They are going to F this thing up for everyone else.
Perfect case of just because you CAN do something doesn't mean you should.  Same with all of our rights - just because you have the right to do something doesn't mean you have to or should.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 28, 2020, 11:26:52 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 28, 2020, 10:11:28 PM
Perfect case of just because you CAN do something doesn't mean you should.  Same with all of our rights - just because you have the right to do something doesn't mean you have to or should.
Ive often felt that way about free speech
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on June 29, 2020, 01:09:28 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 28, 2020, 08:02:16 AM
I can't figure what could be shut down that would help much. 
Indoor bars, indoor serving at restaurants, and indoor church services. It is hard on these businesses. But it will be very hard on the populace if we don't do so especially in hard hit areas.

The federal government could figure  something out for these types of businesses, so they don't go out of business, but doing so would require more brain power than I have tonight. I just know something could be done to help, if Iowa's grain farmers can be subsidized in order to wage a trade war. It requires thought, but it is not that difficult.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 29, 2020, 07:15:00 AM
Yeah, I would focus on indoor activities generally.  I suspect it would be too late to do much more than lessen the rise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 29, 2020, 08:58:26 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 28, 2020, 06:12:47 PM
What would you close now, if you could, to try and limit this thing?
Riots.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 29, 2020, 08:59:44 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 28, 2020, 06:23:52 PM
to swab yourself is that just touching the inside of your mouth or do you have to go way up your nose?
Just in the nose.



https://www.cvs.com/minuteclinic/covid-19-testing?icid=cvs-home-hero1-link2-coronavirus-testing
 (https://www.cvs.com/minuteclinic/covid-19-testing?icid=cvs-home-hero1-link2-coronavirus-testing)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 29, 2020, 10:30:51 AM
after having a swab stuck up my nose until it nearly pierced my brain, I'd guess most folks doing this for themselves are not going deep enough

perhaps this doesn't affect the testing, but I guess it does 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 29, 2020, 10:40:53 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 29, 2020, 10:30:51 AM
after having a swab stuck up my nose until it nearly pierced my brain, I'd guess most folks doing this for themselves are not going deep enough

perhaps this doesn't affect the testing, but I guess it does
The early tests were very deep, the current ones are not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 29, 2020, 10:42:09 AM
I'm surprised there isn't much talk of the virus and cigarette smoking or other factors that may cause more severe illness, hospitalization, ventilator use, death.

is it because there is no pattern to the stats?  or do decades of smoking just not really cause more problems?  or is the tobacco lobby too strong?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 29, 2020, 10:42:53 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 29, 2020, 10:40:53 AM
The early tests were very deep, the current ones are not.
so, a little snot on a tissue is enough?

that is good
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 29, 2020, 10:49:40 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 29, 2020, 10:42:09 AM
I'm surprised there isn't much talk of the virus and cigarette smoking or other factors that may cause more severe illness, hospitalization, ventilator use, death.

is it because there is no pattern to the stats?  or do decades of smoking just not really cause more problems?  or is the tobacco lobby too strong?

I've seen that cited repeatedly as a comorbidity.  I think it's so obvious that it isn't dwelled upon as much.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 29, 2020, 10:54:36 AM
I quit smoking the occasional cigar on the golf course when COVID broke in March

my friends that do smoke cigarettes haven't seemed to cut down at all.

I haven't heard warnings from doctors or politicians or "experts" about increased risk because of smoking.

all stats are regarding age

it does seem obvious to me, but I've also heard from some smokers that they've seen "studies" that tell that smokers aren't at more risk because the virus likes to attach to something in the lungs that is already damaged by smoking.  Probably some misinformation IMO.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 29, 2020, 11:09:23 AM
The amount of obvious misinformation I see on FB is nearing record levels for a topic.

I've seen memes claiming that wearing a mask for more than X minutes can cause asphyxiation and possibly death.  One person today had confused the antibody test with the infection test.  I imagine smokers will always have excuses, "My uncle smoked for 60 years and lived to be 90."

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 29, 2020, 11:21:09 AM
I've cut back on the cigars, but not as a result of the virus. Just wanted to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 29, 2020, 11:24:37 AM
So last week was interesting from the daily deaths perspective.



As a result, the 7-day moving average only declined about 6% from June 21 to June 28. 

For comparison, here's the 7-day moving average declines:


So the next week will tell us a lot about where this thing is actually headed. Hopefully it will still be a decline, even if it is a shallow one.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 29, 2020, 11:45:45 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 29, 2020, 08:59:44 AM
Just in the nose.



https://www.cvs.com/minuteclinic/covid-19-testing?icid=cvs-home-hero1-link2-coronavirus-testing
 (https://www.cvs.com/minuteclinic/covid-19-testing?icid=cvs-home-hero1-link2-coronavirus-testing)
Each state is different, it's not as easy for everyone else...


(https://i.imgur.com/LAt9qob.png)

I went online to schedule an appointment, had to fill out a questionaire honestly, and am SOL.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 29, 2020, 11:46:36 AM
This is why there are 10+ hour lines at free testing locations (non-CVS).  It's hard to tell poor people to pony up $100 unless they're symptomatic....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 29, 2020, 11:52:15 AM
https://www.11alive.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/georgia-testing-lack-of-free-accessibility/85-ce70d88b-17a8-4819-9a5b-792710212caf (https://www.11alive.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/georgia-testing-lack-of-free-accessibility/85-ce70d88b-17a8-4819-9a5b-792710212caf)

The test is free in Georgia, but it can be problematic to get tested because apparently the "worker bees" don't know the process.

This is from last month, maybe it's all fixed now.

https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/covid-19-viral-and-antibody-testing-sites-in-east-point (https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/covid-19-viral-and-antibody-testing-sites-in-east-point)

For all sites, testing will be free for anyone without insurance as well as for people with Medicare or Medicaid. 

No appointment is needed, but you can pre-register here (https://covidtestkitnow.com/) for faster testing. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 29, 2020, 11:57:42 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 29, 2020, 11:45:45 AM
Each state is different, it's not as easy for everyone else...


(https://i.imgur.com/LAt9qob.png)

I went online to schedule an appointment, had to fill out a questionaire honestly, and am SOL.
Didn't you tell the internet that you've had a cough?

https://www.bing.com/maps?q=covid+testing+phoenix&cvid=18a26020d05f41a9af21be7e1fac2f79&FORM=ANAB01&PC=HCTS (https://www.bing.com/maps?q=covid+testing+phoenix&cvid=18a26020d05f41a9af21be7e1fac2f79&FORM=ANAB01&PC=HCTS)

My brother-in-law was tested yesterday, in Chandler. Said it was no problem at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 29, 2020, 12:03:42 PM
https://atlanta.eater.com/2020/6/22/21299372/atlanta-restaurants-bars-closed-temporarily-positive-covid19-coronavirus-employees?fbclid=IwAR1yb98fl_KypvulJ9VT-kSZbCbQ0cv0o9sXh8rofZysUy4_72v0jN7tPvY (https://atlanta.eater.com/2020/6/22/21299372/atlanta-restaurants-bars-closed-temporarily-positive-covid19-coronavirus-employees?fbclid=IwAR1yb98fl_KypvulJ9VT-kSZbCbQ0cv0o9sXh8rofZysUy4_72v0jN7tPvY)

That's a list of local restaurants that had employees testing positive or being symptomatic.

I see this as a harbinger of how CFB teams will fare, and students, etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 29, 2020, 12:16:39 PM
The wife and I went out to dinner on Saturday. It was our first real dinner date since we got the puppy in January. We didn't go out at first because we didn't want to leave him too often, and we didn't go out later because the world shut down.

Overall the restaurant was doing things well. Everyone working was masked, they required reservations and I saw them turn away a couple who didn't have a reservation despite there being open tables (i.e. they were forcing distancing). Everyone who came in was masked until seated. We were prepared to turn around and skip our reservation if we walked in and weren't happy with their precautions. And even better; we ended up getting seated outdoors on the patio.

Because we cook at home so often (and well), I wanted to make sure it was special. I'm not breaking quarantine for Olive Garden. So we went to the nice seafood/brewery restaurant (https://tapsfishhouse.com/taps-irvine/) where we had our wedding reception 2 years go after getting married in Europe. I ordered the Crab Stuffed Shrimp Christopher, and it was so delicious it very well might have been worth catching COVID lol...

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 29, 2020, 12:25:46 PM
Texas shut down all bars again, restaurants dropped down to 50% capacity again as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 29, 2020, 12:56:25 PM
Odds west Texas are adhering to the rules....?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 29, 2020, 01:10:33 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 29, 2020, 10:54:36 AM
I quit smoking the occasional cigar on the golf course when COVID broke in March

my friends that do smoke cigarettes haven't seemed to cut down at all.
because they can't

I haven't heard warnings from doctors or politicians or "experts" about increased risk because of smoking.

all stats are regarding age

it does seem obvious to me, but I've also heard from some smokers that they've seen "studies" that tell that smokers aren't at more risk because the virus likes to attach to something in the lungs that is already damaged by smoking.  Probably some misinformation IMO. yes, some B.S. to make them feel better, because they can't stop smoking
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 29, 2020, 01:12:56 PM
well, they could try

and they could at least cut down

but, WTH, it's their life and death
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 29, 2020, 01:13:26 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 29, 2020, 11:57:42 AM
Didn't you tell the internet that you've had a cough?

https://www.bing.com/maps?q=covid+testing+phoenix&cvid=18a26020d05f41a9af21be7e1fac2f79&FORM=ANAB01&PC=HCTS (https://www.bing.com/maps?q=covid+testing+phoenix&cvid=18a26020d05f41a9af21be7e1fac2f79&FORM=ANAB01&PC=HCTS)

My brother-in-law was tested yesterday, in Chandler. Said it was no problem at all.
I'm not going to lie just to get tested.  I hope your bro didn't, either.  If there are symptomatic/very high risk people needing to get tested, that's who should be getting tested.  

I'm doing it as a precautionary measure to help determine if I should travel or not.  I just don't think I'll go - it'd be from one hotspot to another (AZ>FL).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 29, 2020, 01:13:53 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 29, 2020, 01:12:56 PM
well, they could try

and they could at least cut down

but, WTH, it's their life and death
I know, but they have tried, dozens of times.  They are addicted.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 29, 2020, 01:21:44 PM
pussies
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 29, 2020, 01:30:35 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 29, 2020, 01:21:44 PM
pussies
I'd laugh, but I'm afraid of how many here believe this as being genuine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 29, 2020, 01:46:27 PM
I'm 57 years old, most of my male friends started smoking in high school.  Most of them still do.

My father quit smoking when I was a teenager, twice.

it's rough

but, I encourage anyone to keep trying, it's worth it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 29, 2020, 02:04:16 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 29, 2020, 01:46:27 PM
I'm 57 years old, most of my male friends started smoking in high school.  Most of them still do.

My father quit smoking when I was a teenager, twice.

it's rough

but, I encourage anyone to keep trying, it's worth it.
My daughter stopped smoking

hasnt smoked for 5 months

Im very proud of her
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 29, 2020, 02:37:45 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 29, 2020, 01:13:26 PM
I'm not going to lie just to get tested.  I hope your bro didn't, either.  If there are symptomatic/very high risk people needing to get tested, that's who should be getting tested. 

I'm doing it as a precautionary measure to help determine if I should travel or not.  I just don't think I'll go - it'd be from one hotspot to another (AZ>FL).
There is a glut of available appointments. Everyone coughs, every day. I don't know why CVS is asking those questions. The hospital where I went asked nothing. Anyone can go, any time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 29, 2020, 02:50:30 PM
there are distinct advantages to living in a flyover state

COVID isn't a big concern here

I see very few masks, probably less than 10% of the people I see out are wearing them

but, I'm only going to the golf course, (no one wearing them 0%), the bar, (less than 5%), gas station (5%), and grocery store (was about 50%, down to 30-40%)

no on I work with wears one, unless they go into a customer's house and are asked to wear one.  Very few.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 29, 2020, 02:54:50 PM
I've mentioned before how prevalent smoking is in France, notably younger women.  It's not a social taboo there apparently.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 29, 2020, 03:00:21 PM
April 29, 2020 - Today in the world of coronavirus news:

Few of those hospitalized with the coronavirus are smokers, and researchers are trying to understand why, according to VICE.

One hypothesis is that nicotine, which has anti-inflammatory properties, may interfere with the way that COVID-19 causes an overreaction of the immune system.

The hypothesis comes from Konstantinos Farsalinos, a cardiologist in Greece who focuses on tobacco-use reduction. Farsalinos noticed that few COVID-19 patients who were hospitalized in China were smokers, though about half of men in the country smoke.

Farsalinos and colleagues wrote a new paper available as a preprint and scheduled to be published in Internal and Emergency Medicine. They found that among 13 studies in China with nearly 6,000 hospitalized COVID-19 patients, the rate of smokers ranged from 1.4% to 12.6%. No studies recorded e-cigarette use.

“The results were remarkably consistent across all studies and were recently verified in the first case series of COVID-19 cases in the U.S.,” the authors wrote, calling for an “urgent investigation.”

Of course, Farsalinos doesn't recommend that people should begin smoking simply to attempt to avoid a severe case of COVID-19. Smoking is still a leading cause of preventable death across the globe.

“We all know that smoking is obviously bad for you,” Raymond Niaura of New York University told VICE. Niaura co-authored the paper with Farsalinos. “It follows logically that smokers would be way worse off. I would think that too. But I've been surprised: That's not the story we're necessarily seeing.”


https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200430/smokers-hospitalized-less-often-for-covid-19 (https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200430/smokers-hospitalized-less-often-for-covid-19)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 29, 2020, 03:05:11 PM
it's seems odd that a Google search comes up with the most recent article as 27 May 2020

https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-on-tobacco-and-covid-19 (https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-on-tobacco-and-covid-19)


As a smoker, am I likely to get more severe symptoms if infected?

Smoking any kind of tobacco reduces lung capacity and increases the risk of many respiratory infections and can increase the severity of respiratory diseases. COVID-19 is an infectious disease that primarily attacks the lungs. Smoking impairs lung function making it harder for the body to fight off coronaviruses and other respiratory diseases.  Available research suggests that smokers are at higher risk of developing severe COVID-19 outcomes and death.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 29, 2020, 03:19:36 PM
Interesting, more conflicting findings.  I've mentioned before the cytokine explosion that appears to be common in severe cases among younger people.  Perhaps smoking weakens your immune system so that is less likely?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 29, 2020, 03:36:54 PM
This is why initial findings should never be released to the public.  We go on 'maybe' and 'what if' rabbit holes.  Only compete studies with concrete findings should be widely spread.  Ugh.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 29, 2020, 03:37:57 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 29, 2020, 02:37:45 PM
There is a glut of available appointments. Everyone coughs, every day. I don't know why CVS is asking those questions. The hospital where I went asked nothing. Anyone can go, any time.
I'm not sure I want to go to an AZ hospital right now.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 29, 2020, 03:39:19 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 29, 2020, 02:50:30 PM
there are distinct advantages to living in a flyover state

COVID isn't a big concern here
Hmm, what would change this?

I see very few masks, probably less than 10% of the people I see out are wearing them

but, I'm only going to the golf course, (no one wearing them 0%), the bar, (less than 5%), gas station (5%), and grocery store (was about 50%, down to 30-40%)

no on I work with wears one, unless they go into a customer's house and are asked to wear one.  Very few.
Oh, exactly this.  This could change it.  
Brilliant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 29, 2020, 03:44:08 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 29, 2020, 03:36:54 PM
This is why initial findings should never be released to the public.  We go on 'maybe' and 'what if' rabbit holes.  Only compete studies with concrete findings should be widely spread.  Ugh.

There is a "system" involved here, there are referred journals where articles can take a year or more to be published, and other outlets often called "Something Letters" which publish unrefereed articles.  Scientists understand these are less reliable, but they can be important particularly in a public health or other crisis.  

Then the "media" step in with their vast knowledge and perspective and generally misconstrue and mischaracterize whatever was in "X Letters", to get clicks, or just out of sheer incompetence.

There were some very preliminary findings that HCQ could teat COVID.  The studies were in vitro, generally considered to be "maybe interesting" but hardly definitive, at best pointing to a need for more study.  That got "hyped" obviously and then there was a furor, one that quietly abated.

It was useful to have that finding available to scientists, it was not useful to have it hyped as any kind of real treatment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 29, 2020, 03:48:13 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 29, 2020, 02:50:30 PM
there are distinct advantages to living in a flyover state

COVID isn't a big concern here

I see very few masks, probably less than 10% of the people I see out are wearing them

but, I'm only going to the golf course, (no one wearing them 0%), the bar, (less than 5%), gas station (5%), and grocery store (was about 50%, down to 30-40%)

no on I work with wears one, unless they go into a customer's house and are asked to wear one.  Very few.
I forget whether you're in Nebraska, or are just a Husker that got stranded in Iowa? 

Either way:

California has over 200,000 cases, but only 5469 cases/1M population. 

Iowa has 9122 cases/1M and Nebraska has 9770 cases/1M.

My own county (Orange) has only 4178 cases/1M. Los Angeles county, with almost 100K cases themselves, has only a 9750 cases/1M rate. 

So... Yeah... Flyover states are doing swimmingly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 29, 2020, 04:06:54 PM
I still am unsure why NY State is coming down.  Is it simply that folks can't go out much still?  If they reopen places does it mean it will go bad again?

Europe is largely reopening of course, are they going to go bad again?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 29, 2020, 04:22:29 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 29, 2020, 04:06:54 PM
I still am unsure why NY State is coming down.  Is it simply that folks can't go out much still?  If they reopen places does it mean it will go bad again?

Europe is largely reopening of course, are they going to go bad again?
NY has outside dining open at a limited %, nothing inside as far as I know.  I believe that makes a big difference.

And for both NY and Europe, I expect as they open up inside dining/bars/theaters/etc. once again, that they will see increases.  Even Germany which by most metrics has handled the outbreak extremely well, saw a large surge in cases when it got into a meat packing plant. It's clearly not gone from Germany and I don't believe it ever will be. 

It's here, among us.  We can and should wear masks for the time being, to help limit the rate of spread and try not to overwhelm the hospitals.  We should also becomes accustomed to the idea that it's not ever going away, just like a multitude of other coronaviruses that live among us every day, and plan our social and health policies and procedures accordingly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 29, 2020, 05:12:27 PM
So, to me, the idea of closing down was to "manage" the spread, not change area under the curve.  Opening up means allowing it to spread relatively unconstrained, so any state that significantly reopens is going to see a dramatic increase.  It's inevitable.

So, you can keep nearly everything closed and delay the inevitable, perhaps until a vaccine is available.  Or, you open and believe you can manage it with hospital capacity as needed and hope the seriousness of infections is smaller.

I'm not sure it makes sense to me for a governor to brag about how well they are doing relatively, especially in New York.

The Asian countries largely continue to do well.  I wonder if they wear masks a lot .....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 29, 2020, 05:39:32 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 29, 2020, 03:48:13 PM
I forget whether you're in Nebraska, or are just a Husker that got stranded in Iowa?

Either way:

California has over 200,000 cases, but only 5469 cases/1M population.

Iowa has 9122 cases/1M and Nebraska has 9770 cases/1M.

My own county (Orange) has only 4178 cases/1M. Los Angeles county, with almost 100K cases themselves, has only a 9750 cases/1M rate.

So... Yeah... Flyover states are doing swimmingly.
perhaps many more folks in California are being tested?  Don't know....

Perhaps the death rate in the flyover is less?

perhaps more midwest farmers are red voters, perhaps they are just more inclined to not wear masks?

perhaps the majority of the cases in Iowa and Nebraska were isolated to nursing homes and meat packing plants and folks outside those places feel safe?
it's interesting
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 29, 2020, 06:01:50 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 29, 2020, 05:39:32 PM
perhaps many more folks in California are being tested?  Don't know....

Perhaps the death rate in the flyover is less?

perhaps more midwest farmers are red voters, perhaps they are just more inclined to not wear masks?

perhaps the majority of the cases in Iowa and Nebraska were isolated to nursing homes and meat packing plants and folks outside those places feel safe?
it's interesting
Interestingly, Iowa has a deaths/1M rate about 50% higher than California, while Nebraska has a rate about 10% lower than California. I do know that Iowa was hit hard in the meat packing plants. Not sure we have many of those in CA...

Either way, my point was that clearly flyover country isn't immune from COVID-19 being a big concern, whether people are taking it appropriately seriously or not. Those two states (Iowa/Nebraska) are #12 and #13 in cases/1M (counting DC as a state here). 

It's just as big of a concern everywhere. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 29, 2020, 06:07:41 PM
I assume CA has lots of everything.  That state feeds the earth.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 29, 2020, 06:09:18 PM
CA is the third largest petroleum producing state behind TX and Alaska.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 29, 2020, 06:41:53 PM
Click the + button in the right-hand corner of the map to zoom in and see individual plants. Click on the location for more details about the plant. The operational status of each plant is listed (either closed, reopened or limited production) and numbers on the map indicate multiple plants in the same area.

https://www.meatpoultry.com/articles/22993-covid-19-meat-plant-map (https://www.meatpoultry.com/articles/22993-covid-19-meat-plant-map)

nothing in California on this map, but there have been hot spots at plants in California

HANFORD, Calif. (AP) — At least 138 employees at a meat packing plant in central California have tested positive for the coronavirus.

Reports say several employees at the Central Valley Meat Company in Hanford first tested positive for the virus more than a week ago.

Kings County Supervisor Doug Verboon said the meat packing plant now accounts for nearly two-thirds of the coronavirus cases in the rural county. The company employs about 900 workers at two plants in Hanford and Vernon and continues to operate.


https://www.kron4.com/news/california/at-least-138-employees-contracted-covid-19-at-california-meat-packaging-plant/ (https://www.kron4.com/news/california/at-least-138-employees-contracted-covid-19-at-california-meat-packaging-plant/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 29, 2020, 07:47:12 PM
NOEL, Mo. (AP) — Tyson Foods has announced that 371 employees at its chicken processing plant in the far southwestern corner of Missouri have tested positive for COVID-19.

The company said in a news release Friday that it tested 1,142 employees at the plant in Noel from June 17 to June 19, and 291 tested positive for COVID-19. Of those 291, Tyson said 249, or 85%, were asymptomatic. Tyson said an additional 80 Noel employees tested positive for COVID-19 in separate tests that were performed by their healthcare providers or the state's Department of Health and Senior Services.

The announcement confirms suspicions that the large spike in McDonald County’s reported COVID-19 numbers starting this past weekend was the result of large-scale testing at the plant, the Springfield News-Leader reports.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 29, 2020, 08:01:07 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 29, 2020, 03:48:13 PM
California has over 200,000 cases, but only 5469 cases/1M population.

Iowa has 9122 cases/1M and Nebraska has 9770 cases/1M.

My own county (Orange) has only 4178 cases/1M. Los Angeles county, with almost 100K cases themselves, has only a 9750 cases/1M rate.

So... Yeah... Flyover states are doing swimmingly.
perhaps this is why Iowa and Nebraska don't think it's worth the fight....................


Diners at two Los Angeles taco stands have screamed, cursed and thrown drinks on employees trying to enforce a “no mask, no service” policy, the Los Angeles Times reports.

It’s become so exhausting that Hugo’s Tacos has closed down both shops to give workers a break, owners wrote in a post on Twitter.

“All because of a simple question: Can we ask you to put on a mask? Can we offer you a mask?” said part-owner Bill Kohne, according to the Los Angeles Times. The company has been serving tacos for 15 years, owners wrote in the Twitter post.


I called the license plate office to see if they were open for walk-in customers.  They are.  I asked if the county office required a mask.  No
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 29, 2020, 08:53:07 PM
positive cases are spiking but deaths remain low

we must be doing a good job protecting the most at risk

50,000 new cases a day vs 350 deaths a day seems encouraging 

one death is too many but we just cant keep the economy locked forever

as long as deaths remain low I say we keep doing what we are doing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 29, 2020, 08:57:55 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 29, 2020, 08:53:07 PM
positive cases are spiking but deaths remain low

we must be doing a good job protecting the most at risk

50,000 new cases a day vs 350 deaths a day seems encouraging

one death is too many but we just cant keep the economy locked forever

as long as deaths remain low I say we keep doing what we are doing
remind me on 7/20 so we can analyze the death rate.  I think you guys are heading to the 100 death/day territory by then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 29, 2020, 09:02:45 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 29, 2020, 08:57:55 PM
remind me on 7/20 so we can analyze the death rate.  I think you guys are heading to the 100 death/day territory by then.
yes we know your view on this

I think youre wrong

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 29, 2020, 09:28:08 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 29, 2020, 09:02:45 PM
yes we know your view on this

I think youre wrong
Why is that?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 29, 2020, 09:49:19 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 29, 2020, 09:28:08 PM
Why is that?
positive case increase will not translate into a proportionate death increase because.......

more testing

the young make up the vast majority of current positive cases

new treatment developments
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 29, 2020, 09:57:48 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 29, 2020, 09:02:45 PM
yes we know your view on this

I think youre wrong


I hope like hell he's wrong
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 29, 2020, 10:11:08 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 29, 2020, 03:36:54 PM
This is why initial findings should never be released to the public.  We go on 'maybe' and 'what if' rabbit holes.  Only compete studies with concrete findings should be widely spread.  Ugh.
Amen brother 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 29, 2020, 10:18:03 PM
I’m over the coronavirus. I don’t give a shit. Let’s go back to normal and get on with our lives and stop being a nation of scared idiots. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 29, 2020, 11:28:44 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 29, 2020, 08:57:55 PM
remind me on 7/20 so we can analyze the death rate.  I think you guys are heading to the 100 death/day territory by then.
Your takes on this have been very weird for the past several weeks.  You are actively rooting for deaths in Texas.  You'll say you're not, you probably even believe you're not--

But you are.

I can only wonder... why?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on June 30, 2020, 12:38:24 AM
Quote from: utee94 on June 29, 2020, 11:28:44 PM
Your takes on this have been very weird for the past several weeks.  You are actively rooting for deaths in Texas.  You'll say you're not, you probably even believe you're not--

But you are.

I can only wonder... why?
I’d assume he’s not actively rooting for deaths in Texas. 

There is something about the arguments around this that get people’s brains twisted, but I’d assume no one here is rooting for deaths. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on June 30, 2020, 12:42:39 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 29, 2020, 03:48:13 PM
I forget whether you're in Nebraska, or are just a Husker that got stranded in Iowa?

Either way:

California has over 200,000 cases, but only 5469 cases/1M population.

Iowa has 9122 cases/1M and Nebraska has 9770 cases/1M.

My own county (Orange) has only 4178 cases/1M. Los Angeles county, with almost 100K cases themselves, has only a 9750 cases/1M rate.

So... Yeah... Flyover states are doing swimmingly.
I do think news outlets should give figures like these expressed in cases per million. Thanks for your insightful analysis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 30, 2020, 01:48:57 AM
Quote from: utee94 on June 29, 2020, 11:28:44 PM
Your takes on this have been very weird for the past several weeks.  You are actively rooting for deaths in Texas.  You'll say you're not, you probably even believe you're not--

But you are.

I can only wonder... why?
He's been trying to correct a chronically optimistic/incorrect poster here over and over again.  There's nothing wrong with that.
No one is hoping for more deaths anywhere, even the people who just want to go back to normal.  They don't want the inevitable deaths that would come along with it, they'd just accept them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on June 30, 2020, 02:21:08 AM
COVID-19, cases per 100,000 population. These stats are since start of the pandemic. They consider the recent surge, but do not account for the most current conditions. This compares the four surging states’ overall COVID-19 infections, with Iowa’s.
#11 Arizona - 1,016 per 100,000
#13 Iowa – 904 per 100,000
#24 Florida – 657 per 100,000
#32 California – 545 per 100,000
#33 Texas – 518 per 100,000
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109004/coronavirus-covid19-cases-rate-us-americans-by-state/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109004/coronavirus-covid19-cases-rate-us-americans-by-state/)

Someone else who finds % ICU usage could give us a better optic describing the current situation. Not sure that stat is available.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 30, 2020, 05:52:38 AM
Aside from deaths or cases per capita, a significant factor to watch is TRENDLINES.  Georgia is spiking up on cases, no doubt about it.  Hospitalizations is trending up, but less dramatically (a lot less) and deaths (a laggard) is bouncing around.

I still wonder what should be shut down here to limit this.  I lean to thinking bars and indoor dining.  We don't have "bars" that I know of around here, we have restaurants that do a lot of alcohol business.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2020, 06:41:14 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 30, 2020, 05:52:38 AM
Aside from deaths or cases per capita, a significant factor to watch is TRENDLINES.  Georgia is spiking up on cases, no doubt about it.  Hospitalizations is trending up, but less dramatically (a lot less) and deaths (a laggard) is bouncing around.

I still wonder what should be shut down here to limit this.  I lean to thinking bars and indoor dining.  We don't have "bars" that I know of around here, we have restaurants that do a lot of alcohol business.
My thought would be bars and gyms, with indoor dining limited to 25%.

I got tested yesterday. Piece of cake. Took me 15 minutes, round trip.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 30, 2020, 06:55:03 AM
It would be interesting to see that attempted, bars/gyms/25% indoor dining, and how fast and how much it had any impact.

It will also be interesting to see what happens now in Europe and NYC etc. as things begin to reopen.  My GUESS is they see a rise in infections and everyone ends up where Sweden is, more or less.  Rural states would be different.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2020, 07:14:19 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 30, 2020, 06:55:03 AM
It would be interesting to see that attempted, bars/gyms/25% indoor dining, and how fast and how much it had any impact.

It will also be interesting to see what happens now in Europe and NYC etc. as things begin to reopen.  My GUESS is they see a rise in infections and everyone ends up where Sweden is, more or less.  Rural states would be different.
My thoughts as well. As if we all stayed at home for nothing, but to flatten the curve (kick the can). Would we have been overwhelmed in the hospitals? How many beds were built by he Army Corps, that went untouched?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on June 30, 2020, 07:15:30 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on June 30, 2020, 02:21:08 AM
COVID-19, cases per 100,000 population. These stats are since start of the pandemic. They consider the recent surge, but do not account for the most current conditions. This compares the four surging states’ overall COVID-19 infections, with Iowa’s.
#11 Arizona - 1,016 per 100,000
#13 Iowa – 904 per 100,000
#24 Florida – 657 per 100,000
#32 California – 545 per 100,000
#33 Texas – 518 per 100,000
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109004/coronavirus-covid19-cases-rate-us-americans-by-state/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109004/coronavirus-covid19-cases-rate-us-americans-by-state/)

Someone else who finds % ICU usage could give us a better optic describing the current situation. Not sure that stat is available.

While that is good information, I would be curious to see things broken down by urban and rural areas. In Ohio, most of the cases are reported in the larger cities, while in the rural areas, such as where I live, there are very few confirmed cases, hospitalizations and deaths. 

Also, I don't buy the notion that we have to lock things down because an asymptomatic person could unknowingly spread the disease. How are they spreading it? Are they coughing and sneezing on people? If so, they are NOT asymptomatic. If people have those symptoms, they should stay at home - PERIOD! The rest of us should be able to get on with our lives and follow that simple rule. If you have symptoms, stay home. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 30, 2020, 07:19:55 AM
Everyone coughs and sneezes during the day.  Most of us are taught to cover our mouth when we do it, and turn away from others.  The reason for this is clear.

It makes since that shouting would spread the virus, and even singing.  Any "expectoration" has that potential.  If that person wears a mask, the chance they spread the virus is materially reduced.

And there is presymptomatic as well as asymptomatic.  Neither of these types have any basis for staying home.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 08:48:34 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 30, 2020, 01:48:57 AM
He's been trying to correct a chronically optimistic/incorrect poster here over and over again.  There's nothing wrong with that.
No one is hoping for more deaths anywhere, even the people who just want to go back to normal.  They don't want the inevitable deaths that would come along with it, they'd just accept them.
Not incorrect so far

at what point in the future will you admit Im right if deaths dont surge the way positive cases are

I suspect never

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2020, 08:53:29 AM
Quote from: utee94 on June 29, 2020, 11:28:44 PM
Your takes on this have been very weird for the past several weeks.  You are actively rooting for deaths in Texas.  You'll say you're not, you probably even believe you're not--

But you are.

I can only wonder... why?
I don't know that "rooting for" is correct here.

I think a lot of people are doing the "I told you so" routine, with Arizona, Texas and Florida. It's politicized. "They" mostly don't mention California, the "they" mostly don't bother digging into the real numbers. Testing has shot through the roof in Florida in the past week, with about a 40% increase in tests. Percent positive is also shooting up, sitting at 9%, up from 4% a month ago.

It's the 18-35 y/o group that is the culprit here. They pack the bars, pack house parties, pack beaches. No masks. I do applaud them for getting tested, for sure. Most do not show symptoms, or very little symptoms.

I'm trying to figure out Wisconsin, which has been full-on open since the state Supreme Court struck down the lockdown order on May 14. No huge spikes there. The numbers look to be trending down for most of the State. I've only seen my little pocket in Kenosha, and mask-wearing is 50-50. Even Milwaukee is trending downward.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 30, 2020, 08:56:34 AM
 (https://blog.partnermd.com/blog/hospital-admitting-privileges)https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/)

The other key parameter is hospitalizations, which in GA is going up rather fast, not as fast as new cases.

The death figure will be a trailing indicator.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 09:00:50 AM
Georgia is not doing that bad but like Texas needs to get hospitalizations down
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 30, 2020, 09:06:07 AM
I think Georgia's numbers are very bad.  We have changed our practices as a result.

I think this thing is "out" now and going to run its course, even shutting down bars etc. is not going to help fast enough.

We could end up in a medical crisis here.

I listened to some MD on TV yesterday who said it was doubling every 40 days and we probably have 25 million infected.  He projected half the country would have contracted it by year's end.  His math works.  It could/should start slowing down if we get anywhere near herd immunity, and as people respond individually to be more careful.

Wear a damn mask.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 30, 2020, 09:15:50 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/new-strain-of-flu-in-china-has-pandemic-potential-scientists-warns.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/new-strain-of-flu-in-china-has-pandemic-potential-scientists-warns.html)

Great.  Not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2020, 09:17:29 AM
Close all travel to China already. Just isolate them, in the same manner as North Korea.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 30, 2020, 09:28:00 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2020, 09:17:29 AM
Close all travel to China already. Just isolate them, in the same manner as North Korea.
Or just nuke China to cleanse the world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 30, 2020, 09:41:21 AM
just one warning nuke, to get their attention
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 30, 2020, 09:42:55 AM
China is going to be the death of us all. There will be a superbug that comes out of there and just kills everyone.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 10:51:19 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 30, 2020, 09:41:21 AM
just one warning nuke, to get their attention
dont make me play Dr Strangelove again cause I will
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 30, 2020, 10:52:47 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 30, 2020, 05:52:38 AM
Aside from deaths or cases per capita, a significant factor to watch is TRENDLINES.  Georgia is spiking up on cases, no doubt about it.  Hospitalizations is trending up, but less dramatically (a lot less) and deaths (a laggard) is bouncing around.

I still wonder what should be shut down here to limit this.  I lean to thinking bars and indoor dining.  We don't have "bars" that I know of around here, we have restaurants that do a lot of alcohol business.
People who refuse to wear a mask?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 30, 2020, 10:53:41 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 30, 2020, 09:42:55 AM
China is going to be the death of us all. There will be a superbug that comes out of there and just kills everyone.
China as the real enemy won’t get the proper attention here until POTUS is gone.   

there is too much TDS ( some fair, some not) to let anything or anyone but him be the focal point of blame- for anything. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 30, 2020, 10:55:03 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 30, 2020, 10:52:47 AM
People who refuse to wear a mask?
That would help.  But marginally.  Lots of mask wearers around me getting positive test results.  

I can’t even fathom not wearing one though
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 30, 2020, 11:12:31 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2020, 07:14:19 AM
My thoughts as well. As if we all stayed at home for nothing, but to flatten the curve (kick the can). Would we have been overwhelmed in the hospitals? How many beds were built by he Army Corps, that went untouched?
I've said it before and I'll say it again... Americans DO NOT listen well to authorities. 

If in early March someone had said it was the government's sincere suggestion that we try to socially distance, that we try to avoid leaving the house if we don't have an absolute need to go somewhere, and that we try not to go party with our friends at bars and nightclubs? Oh... And wear a MASK!

What do you think Americans' response would have been?


:shut_up:


I think the practical purpose of the shutdowns was a mental reset to get people to take this thing seriously BEFORE it spiraled out of control.

Only problem is that in addition to not listening to authorities, Americans have short memories.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 30, 2020, 11:12:49 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 30, 2020, 10:55:03 AM
That would help.  But marginally.  Lots of mask wearers around me getting positive test results. 

what are these folks doing and where to get infected?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 30, 2020, 11:15:44 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 30, 2020, 08:56:34 AM
The death figure will be a trailing indicator.
I posted over the weekend, I think, about the time lag between cases and deaths, using the early spikes in Mar/Apr to gauge the time lag.

I came up with a time lag of 7-10 days between seeing a spike in cases and the according spike in deaths.

I've since thought about it more and seen some arguments suggesting that I'm incorrect. At the time, because of testing limitations we were only testing people showing significant symptoms, and so I think those people had more fully progressed into later stages of the severe disease, which would mean that the time lag would be shorter than if we'd been testing at first sign of symptoms. 

I think now more of the tests are "first sign of symptom" tests, so the lag time will be longer in the data than what we saw in Mar/Apr. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 30, 2020, 11:27:32 AM
Quote from: utee94 on June 29, 2020, 11:28:44 PM
Your takes on this have been very weird for the past several weeks.  You are actively rooting for deaths in Texas.  You'll say you're not, you probably even believe you're not--

But you are.

I can only wonder... why?
You got me.  I actually planted the virus in Texas myself.  I am working with Bill Gates to implant Texicans with 5G chips.

In all seriousness, you offended me here.  And, if you look at my posts I have been trying very hard to stick with data, AND I've been explaining my rational.

Am I annoyed that people continue to minimize this thing, not wear masks, etc?  Yes.  Maybe that is showing through.

I truly hope you don't have to deal with we did in the Northeast.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2020, 11:27:42 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 30, 2020, 11:15:44 AM
I posted over the weekend, I think, about the time lag between cases and deaths, using the early spikes in Mar/Apr to gauge the time lag.

I came up with a time lag of 7-10 days between seeing a spike in cases and the according spike in deaths.

I've since thought about it more and seen some arguments suggesting that I'm incorrect. At the time, because of testing limitations we were only testing people showing significant symptoms, and so I think those people had more fully progressed into later stages of the severe disease, which would mean that the time lag would be shorter than if we'd been testing at first sign of symptoms.

I think now more of the tests are "first sign of symptom" tests, so the lag time will be longer in the data than what we saw in Mar/Apr.
I've read that over 60 percent of test results in Florida over the past two weeks were asymptomatic. Kiddies got tested because they knew they had contact.

I'll try to remember where I saw this, and I'll post it.

Regardless, it's true that the spike is the kiddies. That may indicate that there will not be a death spike.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 11:29:39 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2020, 11:27:42 AM
I've read that over 60 percent of test results in Florida over the past two weeks were asymptomatic. Kiddies got tested because they knew they had contact.

I'll try to remember where I saw this, and I'll post it.

Regardless, it's true that the spike is the kiddies. That may indicate that there will not be a death spike.
man why didnt I think of that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2020, 11:30:16 AM
You did.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2020, 11:33:13 AM
Florida reported 5404 new cases yesterday and is reporting 6012 today. This is down from a high of almost 10,000 on Friday.

Deaths are trending downward. 3 were reported today. 13 yesterday. The highest was 38, on 6/22.

Overall mortality rate sits at 2.3 percent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 11:36:19 AM
Im convinced that the spiking started far enough back that if we were going to see a big change in deaths we would have by now

there might be a state sometime with a temp increase in deaths but that will be specific like with a meat packing plant, nursing home etc

we need to get used to the fact that 50,000 positive cases a day does not mean death

if you have an avg of 50,000 people a day testing positive with no increase in deaths that may be a good thing

it may be the only way we get out from under this shit
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 30, 2020, 11:37:01 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 30, 2020, 11:12:49 AM
what are these folks doing and where to get infected?
Protests.    Also outdoor and indoor bars
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 30, 2020, 11:37:15 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 29, 2020, 09:49:19 PM
positive case increase will not translate into a proportionate death increase because.......

more testing

the young make up the vast majority of current positive cases

new treatment developments
With 5000+ cases per day, 100 deaths is a 2% death rate.  Texas has entered exponential growth, and is tracking towards 7000+ cases per day by 8/1.

On June 1st, Texas COVID hospitalizations were about 1,750.  29 days later and it is over 5,900.  Texas was averaging about 20 deaths per day 30 days ago.  Now they are averaging about 40 deaths per day.

We know that deaths typically lag infection rates by 20-40 days.

Yes, there is more testing, but I've taken that into account.

Texas (and about 15 other states) really need to take this serious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2020, 11:41:12 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 30, 2020, 11:37:01 AM
Protests.    Also outdoor and indoor bars
2 of which are now closed, and it ain't the first one.

Beaches too. They are closed now, correct? Or is that by county?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 30, 2020, 11:43:41 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 30, 2020, 11:15:44 AM
I posted over the weekend, I think, about the time lag between cases and deaths, using the early spikes in Mar/Apr to gauge the time lag.

I came up with a time lag of 7-10 days between seeing a spike in cases and the according spike in deaths.

I've since thought about it more and seen some arguments suggesting that I'm incorrect. At the time, because of testing limitations we were only testing people showing significant symptoms, and so I think those people had more fully progressed into later stages of the severe disease, which would mean that the time lag would be shorter than if we'd been testing at first sign of symptoms.

I think now more of the tests are "first sign of symptom" tests, so the lag time will be longer in the data than what we saw in Mar/Apr.
I agree with this assessment.

I also agree that younger people are driving a lot of this resurgence, and that should lower the death rate.

I do not have any faith that we have the will or the fortitude to social distance to the level needed to eliminate COVID.  If a vaccine cannot be developed, this is probably how things will go from here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 30, 2020, 11:49:31 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2020, 11:41:12 AM
2 of which are now closed, and it ain't the first one.

Beaches too. They are closed now, correct? Or is that by county?
By county.   Many are closed for the 4th
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 30, 2020, 11:51:11 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2020, 11:27:42 AM
I've read that over 60 percent of test results in Florida over the past two weeks were asymptomatic. Kiddies got tested because they knew they had contact.

I'll try to remember where I saw this, and I'll post it.

Regardless, it's true that the spike is the kiddies. That may indicate that there will not be a death spike.
Yes, a big part of this is that we're actively contact tracing, which is why we're not only getting a much lower positive rate (we're testing people w/o symptoms because we know they were near someone who has it but they're negative), and also why we're getting a lot more asymptomatic positives... Essentially people who would NOT normally get tested are doing so.

This is much different than late March / early April when we were basically only testing symptomatic people, and telling mildly symptomatic people to ride it out unless the symptoms worsened.

So clearly the profile of testing has changed. 

That said, I don't think the spikes are false... I think we are seeing increased spread. It may be starting with the kiddies, but it will radiate outwards because it's so contagious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 30, 2020, 11:51:47 AM
I would close bars and gyms and limit indoor dining.  I'm far from convinced that would have a significant impact now.  I would encourage at every opp mask wearing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 30, 2020, 11:59:09 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 30, 2020, 11:37:01 AM
Protests.    Also outdoor and indoor bars
folks at protests and bars are wearing masks?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 30, 2020, 12:00:48 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 11:36:19 AM
Im convinced that the spiking started far enough back that if we were going to see a big change in deaths we would have by now
Hey everybody, the guy who's been wrong every step of the way is convinced.  Good enough for me!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 30, 2020, 12:00:55 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 30, 2020, 11:51:47 AM
I would close bars and gyms and limit indoor dining.  I'm far from convinced that would have a significant impact now.  I would encourage at every opp mask wearing.
is there a big difference in outdoor or indoor dining?
does an entire room get infected because HVAC doesn't refresh the air as the breeze outside?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 30, 2020, 12:01:50 PM
I think droplets are better scattered outdoors than indoors, the wind is blowing (which could be bad), and there is sunlight (at times).

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 12:11:09 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 30, 2020, 11:37:15 AM
With 5000+ cases per day, 100 deaths is a 2% death rate.  Texas has entered exponential growth, and is tracking towards 7000+ cases per day by 8/1.

On June 1st, Texas COVID hospitalizations were about 1,750.  29 days later and it is over 5,900.  Texas was averaging about 20 deaths per day 30 days ago.  Now they are averaging about 40 deaths per day.

We know that deaths typically lag infection rates by 20-40 days.

Yes, there is more testing, but I've taken that into account.

Texas (and about 15 other states) really need to take this serious.
your 2% death rate is based on early data

I think todays death rate is between .5% and 1%

no way theres a 40 day lag time its closer to 18 days

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 30, 2020, 12:19:20 PM
as testing goes way up, it seems that cases would go up, which would also add some deaths, but not at the same rate

which would seem to lower the death rate percentage, even though there are more deaths 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 30, 2020, 12:21:59 PM
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all?fbclid=IwAR2Qe-pzeJjTOmFLqyGvsFQm-KN6X_JStzUdXtwU0TcHipFk594GktGgnRw (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all?fbclid=IwAR2Qe-pzeJjTOmFLqyGvsFQm-KN6X_JStzUdXtwU0TcHipFk594GktGgnRw)

 “Clearly there is a much higher risk in enclosed spaces than outside,” Althaus says. Researchers in China studying the spread of the coronavirus outside Hubei province—ground zero for the pandemic—identified 318 clusters of three or more cases between 4 January and 11 February, only one of which originated outdoors (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1.full.pdf). A study in Japan (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.28.20029272v2.full.pdf) found that the risk of infection indoors is almost 19 times higher than outdoors. (Japan, which was hit early but has kept the epidemic under control, has built its COVID-19 strategy explicitly around avoiding clusters, advising citizens to avoid closed spaces and crowded conditions.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 30, 2020, 12:23:12 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 30, 2020, 12:00:55 PM
is there a big difference in outdoor or indoor dining?
does an entire room get infected because HVAC doesn't refresh the air as the breeze outside?
Yes, massive
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 12:30:01 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 30, 2020, 12:21:59 PM
 (Japan, which was hit early but has kept the epidemic under control, has built its COVID-19 strategy explicitly around avoiding clusters, advising citizens to avoid closed spaces and crowded conditions.)
Hard to do in a city like Tokyo 

mass transit alone is a huge challenge 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 30, 2020, 12:30:09 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 12:11:09 PM
your 2% death rate is based on early data

I think todays death rate is between .5% and 1%

no way theres a 40 day lag time its closer to 18 days
Gotta keep terms straight. Case fatality rate vs infection fatality rate. The latter includes asymptomatic and unconfirmed cases.

We can only really work with the case fatality rate, because we don't have a known ability to bring out infection fatality rate. If someone isn't tested, we never knew they had it, so we can't estimate the denominator of the equation.

Nationally, let's look at the last month. On June 29 we had 2,681,811 cases. On May 29 we had 1,809,967 cases. On June 29 we had 128,783 deaths. On May 29 we had 106,541 deaths. 22,242 added deaths against 871,844 new cases. Which means that in that month, the case fatality rate was 2.5%. It will probably rise (some of those 871,844 will die, but haven't died YET), but that's the known rate in the last month.

In Texas, the difference between June 29 and May 29 was 97,000 cases. The difference on those dates was 783 added deaths. So Texas' known case fatality rate over the past month has only been 0.8%. As mentioned that's probably a bit low, because some of those 97,000 confirmed cases will die, but haven't YET. 

Why is Texas' CFR lower than nationally? I have no clue, but it is. 

But based on these numbers, 5,000 new cases daily in Texas should correspond to about 40 deaths/day. The 7-day moving average for daily deaths on May 29 was 20/day, and by June 29 it has risen to 32 deaths/day. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 30, 2020, 12:32:02 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 12:30:01 PM
Hard to do in a city like Tokyo

mass transit alone is a huge challenge
I infer that wearing masks must be effective.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 12:41:37 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 30, 2020, 12:30:09 PM


But based on these numbers, 5,000 new cases daily in Texas should correspond to about 40 deaths/day. The 7-day moving average for daily deaths on May 29 was 20/day, and by June 29 it has risen to 32 deaths/day.
I dont disagree with that analysis

I never said we wouldnt experience increased deaths

just that the amount of increase would not be proportionate to the increase in cases

I think a 50,000 national number will translate to less then 400 deaths

I still have hope that we will be able to get that 50,000 number back to 20,000 once these new orders take affect
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 30, 2020, 12:54:47 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 12:41:37 PM
I dont disagree with that analysis

I never said we wouldnt experience increased deaths

just that the amount of increase would not be proportionate to the increase in cases

I think a 50,000 national number will translate to less then 400 deaths

I still have hope that we will be able to get that 50,000 number back to 20,000 once these new orders take affect
Nationally, the case fatality rate was 2.5% over the past month (as stated that's likely low because some new cases haven't died yet). 

50,000 nationally would correspond to a 1250/day death rate. Before the spike, the US had a national average of around 22,000 cases/day, and 2.5% would be 550/day. 

If you look at the 7-day moving average nationally, it's been declining but is still above that level at 593 deaths/day. Additionally, the slope of the decline (I gave all the data yesterday (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/sports-and-coronavirus/msg231807/#msg231807)) has been flattening. My prediction is that nationally the daily death numbers are going to reverse and go up--not as predominantly as the increase in cases, but will go up from 593/day.

I don't see a lot of evidence that nationally we'll be at 50K cases/day and <400 deaths/day steady-state. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 12:56:48 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 30, 2020, 12:54:47 PM

I don't see a lot of evidence that nationally we'll be at 50K cases/day and <400 deaths/day steady-state.
well thank God you have me to enlighten you
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 30, 2020, 12:57:27 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 30, 2020, 12:21:59 PM
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all?fbclid=IwAR2Qe-pzeJjTOmFLqyGvsFQm-KN6X_JStzUdXtwU0TcHipFk594GktGgnRw (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all?fbclid=IwAR2Qe-pzeJjTOmFLqyGvsFQm-KN6X_JStzUdXtwU0TcHipFk594GktGgnRw)

“Clearly there is a much higher risk in enclosed spaces than outside,” Althaus says. Researchers in China studying the spread of the coronavirus outside Hubei province—ground zero for the pandemic—identified 318 clusters of three or more cases between 4 January and 11 February, only one of which originated outdoors (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1.full.pdf). A study in Japan (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.28.20029272v2.full.pdf) found that the risk of infection indoors is almost 19 times higher than outdoors. (Japan, which was hit early but has kept the epidemic under control, has built its COVID-19 strategy explicitly around avoiding clusters, advising citizens to avoid closed spaces and crowded conditions.)
unfortunately, meat packing and nursing homes are a mostly indoors situation
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 30, 2020, 01:05:49 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 12:56:48 PM
well thank God you have me to enlighten you
Hey, I hope you're right... 

I just wish you could back up your assertions with data or argument beyond "trust me". 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2020, 01:12:35 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 30, 2020, 12:30:09 PM
Why is Texas' CFR lower than nationally? I have no clue, but it is.

Texans have bigger immune systems.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 30, 2020, 01:20:09 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 12:11:09 PM
your 2% death rate is based on early data

I think todays death rate is between .5% and 1%

no way theres a 40 day lag time its closer to 18 days


There's death rate, and there's test rate as a proportion of tested individuals.  I'm referring to the latter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 01:25:35 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 30, 2020, 01:05:49 PM
Hey, I hope you're right...

I just wish you could back up your assertions with data or argument beyond "trust me".
well we Texans never let facts get in the way
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 30, 2020, 01:28:29 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2020, 01:12:35 PM
Texans have bigger immune systems.
along with bigger hats and belt buckles
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 01:28:35 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 30, 2020, 01:20:09 PM
There's death rate, and there's test rate as a proportion of tested individuals.  I'm referring to the latter.
and Im saying the more you test the closer you get to the true number of positive cases and the death rate will go down
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 01:29:32 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 30, 2020, 01:28:29 PM
along with bigger hats and belt buckles
sometimes I think you guys are all hat and no cattle
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 30, 2020, 01:31:26 PM
we have better cattle in Iowa, because we have better grain to feed them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 01:35:37 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 30, 2020, 01:31:26 PM
we have better cattle in Iowa, because we have better grain to feed them
sounds kinda corny to me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 30, 2020, 01:37:08 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 01:28:35 PM
and Im saying the more you test the closer you get to the true number of positive cases and the death rate will go down
That is true. 

The question is thus: is the significant increase in positive tests over the past 2 weeks due to increased testing, increased spread, or a bit of both? 

If it is at the very least "a bit of both", I expect the daily death counts to start increasing again. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2020, 01:45:16 PM
Median age of cases (from inception) in Florida is now 40. A month ago it was 56, if I remember right. I'd have to dig to find historical data.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 30, 2020, 01:57:46 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 01:28:35 PM
and Im saying the more you test the closer you get to the true number of positive cases and the death rate will go down
Which is why I've already accounted for that.

2.5% --- but I only estimated 2%.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 30, 2020, 01:59:27 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 30, 2020, 01:57:46 PM
Which is why I've already accounted for that.

2.5% --- but I only estimated 2%.
But in fairness to 320, you were referencing Texas specifically (5000 cases / 100 deaths daily) where 2% would be significantly higher than what has been observed to date.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 02:02:14 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 30, 2020, 01:37:08 PM
That is true.

The question is thus: is the significant increase in positive tests over the past 2 weeks due to increased testing, increased spread, or a bit of both?

If it is at the very least "a bit of both", I expect the daily death counts to start increasing again.

I think it is a bit of both but the vast majority of positives are much younger on the average then two months ago so that will help reduce the death rate
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 02:06:17 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 30, 2020, 01:59:27 PM
But in fairness to 420, you were referencing Texas specifically (5000 cases / 100 deaths daily) where 2% would be significantly higher than what has been observed to date.
its 320

and I am not referring to only Texas

as there are 9 to 10 other states which have better death rates then Texas

why dont we just table this for 3 weeks and see the results and if Im wrong I'll be the first to admit it

and I wont even say I told ya so if Im right
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2020, 02:12:21 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 02:06:17 PM
its 320

and I am not referring to only Texas

as there are 9 to 10 other states which have better death rates then Texas

why dont we just table this for 3 weeks and see the results and if Im wrong I'll be the first to admit it

and I wont even say I told ya so if Im right

Good to know. And I don't think 420 was an insult. He was giving you an extra credit of 100 points.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 02:25:25 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2020, 02:12:21 PM
Good to know. And I don't think 420 was an insult. He was giving you an extra credit of 100 points.
I didnt take it bad I was just correcting him 

There is no magic to the number 320

when I first signed up I put in longhorn and was told that was taken

so I put in longhorn1 and got same message

I tried 2 and 3 with same result

so I said enough of this crap and just picked 320 and it worked
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 30, 2020, 02:25:55 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 02:06:17 PM

why dont we just table this for 3 weeks and see the results and if Im wrong I'll be the first to admit it
Then what are we going to do between now and then?! 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 30, 2020, 02:32:28 PM
we could try to come up with a better handle than 320
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 30, 2020, 02:35:26 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 30, 2020, 02:25:55 PM
Then what are we going to do between now and then?!
Hopefully NOT count a lot of new deaths all over the country. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 30, 2020, 02:36:48 PM
The new case figures are going up so fast now I have to think more deaths will follow in 2-3 weeks, obviously without such a dramatic increase.  The surge in hospital bed usage in GA is a concern.  These exponential things can run away from your ability to keep up in a hurry.

I fear we're nearly all going to contract it at some point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 30, 2020, 02:37:18 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 30, 2020, 02:25:55 PM
Then what are we going to do between now and then?!
Go out and mix and mingle
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 02:37:33 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 30, 2020, 02:32:28 PM
we could try to come up with a better handle than 320
thats rich coming from someone called Fearful er I mean Fearless
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 02:39:02 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 30, 2020, 02:37:18 PM
Go out and mix and mingle
I thought I'd try to find a nude beach to go to

that would sure scare the hell out of the locals
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 30, 2020, 02:40:12 PM

As long as your mouth is covered
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 02:41:38 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 30, 2020, 02:35:26 PM
Hopefully NOT count a lot of new deaths all over the country.
that is kind of a morbid subject but I guess this is the times we are living in
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 02:45:15 PM
Now Fauci is on TV saying he wouldnt be surprised if the US went to 100,000 cases a day

what a bundle of joy
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 30, 2020, 02:48:02 PM
well, nothing should really surprise any of us at this point
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 30, 2020, 02:50:09 PM
We' re at 45,000 cases per day now and it's doubling every 40 days.  100,000 could be reached by the start of CFB, easily.  And that's KNOWN cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 03:02:06 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 30, 2020, 02:50:09 PM
We' re at 45,000 cases per day now and it's doubling every 40 days.  100,000 could be reached by the start of CFB, easily.  And that's KNOWN cases.
but thats giving no affect for closing bars and other places
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 30, 2020, 03:14:04 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 30, 2020, 02:50:09 PM
We' re at 45,000 cases per day now and it's doubling every 40 days.  100,000 could be reached by the start of CFB, easily.  And that's KNOWN cases.
we could halt all testing

known cases would go WAY down
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 03:17:16 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 30, 2020, 03:14:04 PM
we could halt all testing

known cases would go WAY down
thats exactly the logic behind more positives mean more deaths
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 30, 2020, 04:04:47 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on June 30, 2020, 01:59:27 PM
But in fairness to 320, you were referencing Texas specifically (5000 cases / 100 deaths daily) where 2% would be significantly higher than what has been observed to date.
That is true.

Personally, I am of the belief that there isn't something magical in the Texas air.  The bulk of their infections have come in the last 10 days, too.

2% is still a pretty good number, IMO.

But even at 1.5% you're looking at 75 deaths/day.  

I'd love to be wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 30, 2020, 04:05:10 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 30, 2020, 02:36:48 PM
The new case figures are going up so fast now I have to think more deaths will follow in 2-3 weeks, obviously without such a dramatic increase.  The surge in hospital bed usage in GA is a concern.  These exponential things can run away from your ability to keep up in a hurry.

I fear we're nearly all going to contract it at some point.

I've felt since late March this was basically a certainty.  Well, not ALL of us will contract it, but whatever number it is that approaches herd immunity, so perhaps 70% or so.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 30, 2020, 04:15:38 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 30, 2020, 04:05:10 PM
I've felt since late March this was basically a certainty.  Well, not ALL of us will contract it, but whatever number it is that approaches herd immunity, so perhaps 70% or so.


Sadly, I believe this to be the case.

It didn't HAVE to be this way.  Take a look at Europe, PA, NJ, NY, etc. 

Social distancing will never work here.  Distrust of the government.  Distrust of science.  Distrust of experts.  Valuing the individual over the collective good.  Conspiracy theories are mainstream.  There's just way too much to overcome.

Let's just hope a vaccine is coming shortly.  I'd rather not have millions of deaths if we can help it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 30, 2020, 04:20:31 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 30, 2020, 04:15:38 PM
Sadly, I believe this to be the case.

It didn't HAVE to be this way.  Take a look at Europe, PA, NJ, NY, etc. 

Social distancing will never work here.  Distrust of the government.  Distrust of science.  Distrust of experts.  Valuing the individual over the collective good.  Conspiracy theories are mainstream.  There's just way too much to overcome.

Let's just hope a vaccine is coming shortly.  I'd rather not have millions of deaths if we can help it.
Huh?  Much of Europe, PA, NY, NJ are all examples of complete shit-shows with unbelievably high death per millions numbers.  Plus, all of the places you list will have further waves of new cases the moment they begin opening up indoor facilities.  It's not just going away.  We've already seen it happen in Germany, South Korea, and Shanghai.

The deaths can be kept down if we can keep it out of nursing homes and LT care facilities. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 30, 2020, 04:28:15 PM
it didn't have to be this way that the American people distrust everyone and everything

crap media, crap politicians
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 30, 2020, 04:28:50 PM
DES MOINES, Iowa (IOWA'S NEWS NOW) — Governor Kim Reynolds says the massive surge in reported COVID-19 recoveries in Iowa over the last 24- hours is because of a revised protocol for determining case recoveries by the Iowa Department of Public Health.

IDPH data shows 5,324 new recoveries during the time between 10:00 Monday morning and 10:00 Tuesday morning - a 30% increase from Monday's total of 17,711 and 23% of the pandemic total of 23,035.

During a press conference Tuesday morning in Steamboat Rock, Governor Reynolds said confirmed COVID-19 cases in Iowa will now be considered recovered 28 days after a positive test unless the state is told otherwise, like in situations of hospitalization. The governor says the change comes because state investigators following up on confirmed cases statuses aren't hearing back from people that have tested positive for the virus.

Aside from the seismic shift in activity and recovery rates because of the adjusted rationale, IDPH's COVID-19 data is showing an increase of 213 confirmed cases of the virus from 10:00 a.m. on June 29 to 10:00 a.m. on June 30. Those new cases come from 3,345 new tests. Five more deaths are also being reported over that 24-hour stretch - meaning 712 Iowans have now died from COVID-19 during the pandemic.


There are now 28,941 total cases confirmed in Iowa from 303,772 tests. The positivity rate is 9.53%.

RMCC data shows 133 current hospitalizations for the virus in Iowa - 14 more than yesterday. 34 of those patients are in the ICU - one fewer than Monday. 20 patients are on ventilators - two more than 24 hours ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 30, 2020, 04:43:17 PM
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/505232-fauci-predicts-100000-new-covid-19-cases-per-day-if-us-cant-control (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/505232-fauci-predicts-100000-new-covid-19-cases-per-day-if-us-cant-control)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 30, 2020, 04:48:39 PM
I suspect/presume as the numbers get worse, people will modify their habits and practices on their own and stop going to high risk places and activities (not all, but many).  This could mean the rate of increase will slow, perhaps from this point, perhaps it will take another week or two.

This shot up so fast I think some folks were caught somewhat unawares.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on June 30, 2020, 05:08:22 PM
I'm worried about a rough fall and winter. While not definitive, there is pretty decent evidence that antibody immunity wanes over a few months. Reinfections are likely. Another wave of deaths could happen. Flu season is coming, which will compound our problems.

Over the long term, things will be ok. There is a lot of evidence that T cell response to corona may be long lived and reduce symptoms. That response may be related to other coronaviruses (colds) and may explain why so many people have mild to no symptoms. In any event, in a couple years this may be another cold. But this fall...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 30, 2020, 05:11:18 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 30, 2020, 04:43:17 PM
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/505232-fauci-predicts-100000-new-covid-19-cases-per-day-if-us-cant-control (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/505232-fauci-predicts-100000-new-covid-19-cases-per-day-if-us-cant-control)
I suppose this could be construed as a "prediction"


"I would not be surprised if we go up to 100,000 [cases] a day if this does not turn around and so I am very concerned," he added.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 30, 2020, 05:14:15 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 30, 2020, 04:15:38 PM
 

Social distancing will never work here.  Distrust of the government.  Distrust of science.  Distrust of experts.  Valuing the individual over the collective good.  
You could save some time and just label the umbrella these all fall under:  stupidity.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 30, 2020, 05:18:10 PM
swimmingly!!!  Utah?

CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa (Iowa's News Now) — New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has added Iowa to New York's quarantine order. This means anyone traveling to New York from Iowa must quarantine for 14 days.

Iowa is one of sixteen states in the quarantine order. The other states are Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Nevada, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2020, 05:20:03 PM
Has anyone asked him about nursing homes? You know, for advice and such.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 30, 2020, 05:20:15 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 30, 2020, 05:14:15 PM
You could save some time and just label the umbrella these all fall under:  stupidity. 
I wouldn’t put distrust of government in there as stupidity.  They have earned it many times over. 

as far as science- to me that translates to interpretation- the media all have the same science available, but use it without clarity to push their narrative. No innocent exceptions here either.  So the masses do not know what to even believe. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 05:32:21 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 30, 2020, 05:18:10 PM
swimmingly!!!  Utah?

CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa (Iowa's News Now) — New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has added Iowa to New York's quarantine order. This means anyone traveling to New York from Iowa must quarantine for 14 days.

Iowa is one of sixteen states in the quarantine order. The other states are Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Nevada, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah.

why Iowa


they dont have bad numbers

oh well cut off the corn fed beef shipments
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 30, 2020, 06:18:47 PM
Reportage of sciency issues in the media is almost always bad to worse, misleading, important features omitted, focus on something out of context, you name it.

Fauci talks very much like a scientist, for example, and his clear comments get misconstrued routinely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 30, 2020, 06:41:01 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 05:32:21 PM
why Iowa


they dont have bad numbers

oh well cut off the corn fed beef shipments
I would guess there aren't many Iowans or Utahans going to New York, so no biggie
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 30, 2020, 08:34:44 PM
Hilarious.  I am surrounded by New Yorkers who could not wait to get out of that death trap.  Thousands- right here where I live.  

Oppressive taxes, sanctuary city, defunding the police- you name it. 

It looks to me like people are going to be leaving these cities in droves- and right quick.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2020, 08:41:11 PM
Hopefully they leave their voting habits at the border. Count me as one of those people leaving a metropolis to escape the madness. My brother isn't far behind.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 30, 2020, 09:13:26 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2020, 08:41:11 PM
Hopefully they leave their voting habits at the border. Count me as one of those people leaving a metropolis to escape the madness. My brother isn't far behind.
Funny story for you badge. I play golf frequently and get matched up with other people. It’s a fun way to get socializing and meet new people and new ideas.

back in 18 when we were having the gubernatorial elections here in Florida I kept noticing a pattern of our visitors from the north east bitching and moaning about the places they came from. Many of them were small business owners and were screaming about the oppressive taxes and basically saying they were going to move their businesses down here or close them up and retire down here. One day, I kind of listenEd for about nine holes and then I thought well I’ve got to ask:  What do you boys think about this election between DeSantis and Gilliam?  They were all in for Gilliam LOL. I reminded them you know he’s going to create a personal income tax here and has openly said that right?  “ Well yeah but bla bla bla”

I was honest with them and said you do realize that he represents the exact conditions you’re complaining about and leaving don’t you? They could not make the connection

And, look where their candidate ended up.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2020, 09:17:24 PM
Is said candidate in jail yet? Those were some serious things he did.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 30, 2020, 09:35:48 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2020, 09:17:24 PM
Is said candidate in jail yet? Those were some serious things he did.
Rehab
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 30, 2020, 09:49:27 PM
politicians don't go to jail
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2020, 10:04:28 PM
We're getting off topic. We should not, or UTee will ban all of us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 30, 2020, 10:17:11 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2020, 10:04:28 PM
We're getting off topic. We should not, or UTee will ban all of us.

Yer GD right, and I've got an itchy trigger finger tonight.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2020, 10:27:25 PM
And there is no doubt you have a big GUN.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on June 30, 2020, 10:29:16 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 30, 2020, 10:17:11 PM
Yer GD right, and I've got an itchy trigger finger tonight.
Go Wofford
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2020, 10:31:27 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 30, 2020, 10:29:16 PM
Go Wofford
That is just mean.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 11:45:36 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 30, 2020, 10:17:11 PM
Yer GD right, and I've got an itchy trigger finger tonight.
defunding is coming
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 01, 2020, 01:52:53 AM
The U.S. is going to cause a true 2nd wave of Covid-19 outbreaks internationally in the fall.  We're earth's dirty, snot-nosed kid in a classroom full of healthy kids just back from sick leave.  And our parents aren't doing anything to clean us up or get us healthy.
The other parents are going to be pissed, not that anyone here cares.  Cuz 'Murica.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 01, 2020, 07:59:17 AM
Why would we expect a "second wave" this fall? 

Why wouldn't we expect to see a rise in cases in Europe as they also reopen?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 01, 2020, 08:12:23 AM
Not sure how the US could cause another wave in Europe. They already kinda have one going, and we're not allowed to go there anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 01, 2020, 08:38:34 AM
The evidence suggests that once a place "reopens", the virus spreads, except in areas where mask wearing is pervasive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 01, 2020, 08:44:06 AM
Just wait and see.  Again.

I told you it would spread from the big cities to the more minor ones, and eventually the rural areas.

I told you reopening would cause it to jump again.

We know how this stuff works.  It's math.  The only reason it's problematic is when you ignore the math.  Too much ignorance.  Too much optimism.  Hope is a waste of time, science helps.  

Just wait and see.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 01, 2020, 08:51:05 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 01, 2020, 08:44:06 AM
Just wait and see.  Again.

I told you it would spread from the big cities to the more minor ones, and eventually the rural areas.

I told you reopening would cause it to jump again.

We know how this stuff works.  It's math.  The only reason it's problematic is when you ignore the math.  Too much ignorance.  Too much optimism.  Hope is a waste of time, science helps. 

Just wait and see.
you remind me of those old guys you see on street corners running around crying "God is coming"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 01, 2020, 09:06:29 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 01, 2020, 08:44:06 AM
Just wait and see.  Again.

I told you it would spread from the big cities to the more minor ones, and eventually the rural areas.

I told you reopening would cause it to jump again.

We know how this stuff works.  It's math.  The only reason it's problematic is when you ignore the math.  Too much ignorance.  Too much optimism.  Hope is a waste of time, science helps. 

Just wait and see.
You didn't need to tell us what we already knew. We don't need to be told by you.

Yes, WE KNOW. Everyone here wears masks. Not everyone here is on a government job and can sit home. Reopening had to happen.

The <35 (woke??) crowd is f'ing this up for all of us.

There is nothing wrong with optimism. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 01, 2020, 09:44:49 AM
The only question about reopening was how fast and how bad it would get.  It has gotten worse than I expected, and I was not thinking it would be nice.

I was surprised early on after GA "reopened" that not much happened for a while.  I noted that places around me mostly stayed closed, and that was clearly a factor.  

I'm interested in what alternative course should have been followed.  Reopen later?  Doesn't that just delay the inevitable?  Reopen less?  I can see that, I think we could manage without gyms and bars.  Beauty parlors?  They start to get necessary at some point, and they have taken precautions.

So, anyone decrying the steps taken could perhaps outline what course should have been followed.  I think keeping everything closed for months and months is clearly not feasible, and in any event just delays the inevitable.  So, it's easy to sneer at the ignorant governors, but perhaps not so easy to propose an alternative path that makes sense.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 01, 2020, 09:49:14 AM
reopening is a learning process

one of the things we learned was keep inside bars closed for awhile

we have not completely reclosed we just took a step back

is what we did enough

dont know yet as I said its a learning process
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 01, 2020, 09:54:52 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 01, 2020, 09:44:49 AM
The only question about reopening was how fast and how bad it would get.  It has gotten worse than I expected, and I was not thinking it would be nice.

I was surprised early on after GA "reopened" that not much happened for a while.  I noted that places around me mostly stayed closed, and that was clearly a factor. 

I'm interested in what alternative course should have been followed.  Reopen later?  Doesn't that just delay the inevitable?  Reopen less?  I can see that, I think we could manage without gyms and bars.  Beauty parlors?  They start to get necessary at some point, and they have taken precautions.

So, anyone decrying the steps taken could perhaps outline what course should have been followed.  I think keeping everything closed for months and months is clearly not feasible, and in any event just delays the inevitable.  So, it's easy to sneer at the ignorant governors, but perhaps not so easy to propose an alternative path that makes sense.


It's an impossible proposition. The way this thing has evolved is something that we could not predict in February. Closing the economy forever is not an option.

We need people to be diligent, without being told what to do. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 01, 2020, 10:01:38 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 01, 2020, 07:59:17 AM
Why would we expect a "second wave" this fall?

Why wouldn't we expect to see a rise in cases in Europe as they also reopen?


I've gone back and forth about it. I certainly don't think we can rule it out. Antibody immunity seems likely to reduce over time. Indoors transmission appears to be much easier than outdoors. Flu season will definitely impact hospital capacity (could it also increase mortality?).  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 01, 2020, 10:03:24 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/pfizer-stock-jumps-after-it-reports-positive-data-in-early-stage-coronavirus-vaccine-trial.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/pfizer-stock-jumps-after-it-reports-positive-data-in-early-stage-coronavirus-vaccine-trial.html)

Some positive news on the vaccine front, but it appears this will be early next year at best.  I suspect IF we can vaccinate 60% of the population or so, this thing would hit an R naught wall.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 01, 2020, 10:15:39 AM
I like that one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 01, 2020, 10:30:55 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 01, 2020, 09:44:49 AM
I'm interested in what alternative course should have been followed.  Reopen later?  Doesn't that just delay the inevitable?  Reopen less?  I can see that, I think we could manage without gyms and bars.  Beauty parlors?  They start to get necessary at some point, and they have taken precautions.

So, anyone decrying the steps taken could perhaps outline what course should have been followed.  I think keeping everything closed for months and months is clearly not feasible, and in any event just delays the inevitable.  So, it's easy to sneer at the ignorant governors, but perhaps not so easy to propose an alternative path that makes sense.
I think people really missed (and the gov't didn't stress) that reopening restaurants and/or bars did NOT mean that you should go hang out with friends from outside your household at said restaurants and bars. 

A few examples:


That's one advantage to closing bars while leaving restaurants open. Bars are almost by default a gathering place for people from different households. Much like the beaches, it's not like most young single people are going to a bar alone. There have been numerous stories of bars causing clusters. 

Restaurants are sometimes a gathering place for people from separate households, but probably easier to take good precautions than bars, and a lot of time restaurants are for families or couples who can't distance from each other anyway. I do know a few restaurants here have needed to close temporarily due to staff contracting COVID, but I haven't heard of many issues where restaurants have caused a cluster of infections within their patrons. 

Gyms are less of an issue, as long as they have proper precautions in place (all equipment wiped down with sanitary wipes between users, anyone not doing cardio needs a mask, physical distancing / occupancy restrictions, etc). Same with beauty salons/etc. My wife got her nails done, and there were pretty extreme sanitation/distancing measures being observed. Plastic barriers between chairs, distancing between chairs, everyone (patron and salon worker) masked, hand sanitizer both before and after treatment, etc. Much like a haircut you can't exactly be 6' physically distant and still receive service, but they seemed to be doing a good job from what she said. 

But if we don't hammer home the idea that households should try to mix as little as possible to avoid the spread, it doesn't matter what we do or don't reopen because it's PEOPLE that spread this thing to each other with their behavior. Businesses being open just make it easier for people to be stupid together. We're going to have another problem in about 2 weeks from 4th of July parties/BBQs that don't involve businesses being open at all. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 01, 2020, 10:31:54 AM
Moderna to begin phase 3 testing this month

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/07/01/what-does-astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-push-mean.aspx (https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/07/01/what-does-astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-push-mean.aspx)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 01, 2020, 10:42:29 AM
I personally heard loud and clear around here that reopening didn't mean "back to normal" and quite a few precautions were emphasized.  We all appreciate that we Americans are a rebellious lot in general, and we hear what we want to hear and disregard the rest.

I'd also note folks in our area have been nearly all "behaving", very few exceptions.  I'd also note out county is showing a relatively low infection rate.  The worst counties are rural, and associated with meat processing plants.  And of course a place can suffer a bad outbreak emanating from just one person at times.

I think the "messenging" on masks could have been a LOT better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 01, 2020, 10:48:49 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on June 27, 2020, 11:54:04 AM
Our governor cannot make his mouth say the words, "Wear a mask."

Daddy wouldn't like it.
He now urges people to wear masks.  Better late than never.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 01, 2020, 10:50:27 AM
Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories

  • As of Tuesday night, 2,634,432 cases of COVID-19 have been reported in the United States (an increase of 46,410 from yesterday) and 127,410 deaths have been attributed to the virus (an increase of 1,279 from yesterday), according to the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUMuOwyAQ-5pyREBI0hw47KW_EfGYJjQ8Ihi6yt8v3UpzsCxbHttqhC2XS525ImkVyuqdkmIZZj6Tjhy_j3fi6_osAFH7oLA0IGczwVuNPqePQYwjX8jejY6BfRrj3DBJKYxkRjtpJ7css-Dd12NW3ZyHZEHBG8qVE5CgdsSz3oafm3j0s7nkpN--tEpfe6PgWmejPumOMRCvBBOMzYxzJhc-UU75yx3Hc3x7cdwki5ugtZmK2h7U5kiKKjo5aorfttoF1dgtZKMDTYCfNmtXxZY8XiskbQK4b1H8LvP_N14nqAS_NQAilC_Z20-cjXIgPdDlPlFSMZfk0-Z8PTXa_Q9WKHv7), leading to a mortality rate among confirmed cases of 4.8 percent (the true mortality rate is likely much lower, between 0.4 (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUMuOhCAQ_JrhNgTwMXrgsJf9DYNNq-wgGGg1_v3iTNLpdPUj1VVgCOeYLr3FTGzPmAZnda366iVfrFRWdk3HXB6mhLga5zWlHdm2j96BIRfDfaCaRvZs0RM0XdUr2dlKVrKTwtQtjrafrFAwQctumsHs1mEA1HhgumJA5vVCtOVH9fNQvyXO8-Rggc_xKAhiisEcLu25ICVk_wzwmSywlbx5E4IL8zMDBpNczHyh1TOnlVBCvISUou5lyyWXf_b9nprDqfejFuuseN7HTAbeHOLKkk4mWD4mN8-5LOQRZh9H43lAukUPZWvdg6NrKFSjR_v1g74GfuTRtaEOeGaPRJi-zWJSK0VTV6wQ2licDHqN6X7burwZguUf8vSImA) percent and 1.4 (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUMuOhCAQ_JrhtgRQRz1w2Mv-huHRCjsIBpox_v3iTtKp7lSqUukyCmFL-ZJHKkhqgbx4K3sxdyMfSbssn4aJ-LKsGWBXPkjMFchRdfBGoU_xNohh4DNxkk0rW7XgkxjnkQ22nzumR2H5k9lZzILcMYuq1kM0IOEN-UoRSJAO8SiP7vshftqc50njhX6HQk3aGyOYYG2xrgGfGzhQAd2trU7FL5Nyiurtcy1fFhS6Qh3ugXh5O9nIOGf9zJ-UU_5rX691eHvxevRs3wQtVRdU5nVnkSyzipbq7LetNEHRZgtJq0Aj4P340lR7jR6vBaLSAeynE_yU-P8iXgfICGcJgAj5Q7ainpwNfUdaoE2tzSj3lKOPm_XlUGjcH-7Bh-M) percent, but it’s impossible to determine precisely due to incomplete testing regimens). Of 32,206,245 coronavirus tests conducted in the United States (648,838 conducted since yesterday), 8.2 percent have come back positive.
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_1768%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Fdd449731-5e8d-412f-8f98-a5bb94dca005_884x292.png&t=1593613176&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1c1c-ff000101eb00&sig=OUBWMdrrOjjZv2lYWaOvKw--~D) (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUkuu3CAQPM2ws8V3bBYsniLlGlYDbQ8ZGxzA8zI5ffB4FQlBqT9VrS4cVFxSfps9lUqOgnkK3kiuxcAG0pBnoxpJKNOcETcIq6n5QLIfdg0OakjxbOBKMU0eZkQLDARoEIMV3jnq2OzRzkIwkP5OTpkJDh8wOjT4wvxOEclqHrXu5Sa-bvxnO87Hvhy2VHDP3qWthcIGC7Z3xuoeZ8m0hi3UG_8xN8KaGvh9AfG1pOTPxDrtOS0ZSwkvbPFSEffWe4lxdcqpU7Bd9nBPbPncIVXWulF2FkB0UgzYacXGDrwV3OIw6FH2RfSwwd8U4btcEzaOaysf-Bm3fKD3UupBsE7h6DvJ-NyNs258TUZL74BSNY2j_MM17_e4kGA45ZQOlDEqNbv3rGe__PM5q1fgz5uk28L_Ww_JJkP0vc1hWUorKNYta7Kw9hHradbUqrYjhvqeMIJd0V8-1sv4jy31vaOJ-F1WrBXzFWzm3hlVUpAm6FP7AdFsKccQFx_KDs2Mf3aOwIY)
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2406%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Fe50b67cc-f3d4-43cf-ba0c-ffe280442b5d_1203x746.png&t=1593613176&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1c1c-ff000101eb00&sig=dEG.juVM.kmPFtySVf36EA--~D) (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUtuupCAQ_JrhTcNV9MGHk032NwyX1mFVcAHn7OzXbzs-bUKgaLqrOl04U2FJ-T0eqVRyFshT8KPkg9BME0Se9aonoUxzBthN2MaaTyDHabfgTA0pXgVcKTaQ5yhn3mlm-GCVNJ3uZt1x7rgdFAMtvCaXzGROHyA6GOEF-Z0ikG181nqUh_h68J-4nI9tOW2pxq2tSzuGwm4WwHOG6p5XyrSFPdQH_zEjYU0Ift9AfC0p-ethm46clgylhBdgvFSAA2tvMa4uOXUJ4mZPtwK-5waostb1srHGiEYKDQ323zfGW8EtaD30si2iNbv5m6L5LneHyHFP5QM_7ZYPBEVtp51rZuEl8rkZmSleZ-A9lZJb5SfGqfijZdcecSFh5JRTqiljVA6sa1nLfvl1ndUr8PUh6b7w_-ZD8phN9K3NYVkKJhTrli1Zs7UR6uXWhFn7GUN9TxCN3cDfRtbb-Y8v9X3AGOG7bFAr5DuI7naMKikICvqEXyCOe8oxxMWHchh04x-p9L_K)
  • Dr. Anthony Fauci testified (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkE2ShCAMhU_T7LQAodEFi9nMNSx-ojKtYEFsx9sPTldlkaRe6r18ziDMKV96TwXJUSCPwWvBh04xRWrnWS97Eso4ZYDNhFVjPoDsh12DMxhSvA-4lGwgi_aT5JQJCcYx-xTWKduB6pT1ivd-kOS2Gc3hA0QHGt6QrxSBrHpB3Muj-3rw71rnebbmN6TSurTVeTKHC02BWOM2CAXDluLVuJRTNO-Qj9IMnnIqTN9MPchGeLCN6SfVUOWd9YJ5xly74LaSoHmVUkUZo2Jgz5a17Me_XpN8B_56CLrNvC2HLWjc6w5Ass4m-tbmMM-lCop185qsWdsIeLMYq2o7YsBrrBntCv6DCT9c_7_Gawcd4SwrIEL-LCu7J6NSdKQa-lQBR72lHEOcfSi7Qbf8AUUUj9I) in a Senate hearing yesterday that the United States may begin to see up to 100,000 new coronavirus cases daily. “I can’t make an accurate prediction, but it will be very disturbing, I will guarantee you that,” he warned.
  • The European Union will officially reopen its borders (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUUuO7CAMPE2zIwrkv2Axm3eNiI-TZjoBhE1afftHpiUEZSi7TNlqgj3mj0oRiRWEvHqnerl0k5hYRU7Mw8w8rlsGOLU_FOUCLBVzeKvJx3AnyGEQC3uqTc-DMbPVdhJL78ZuGu1itmm2o-ilk-yWWXVxHoIFBRfkTwzADvUkSvjofh7yX13v97sJKTcx7zVCsLcQVmhjjkFfPhfkh7-Al-TqF-4n2cq2Hu1Yt-5G89zV3mUnKobCEQh5gHfNQ-Jx4zqlHC9wnLK-4OBJZwqQkdOz1uXIPYZKDNwT8-ou306tEG2_iLERjfh1r9c2XF6-Hn177rLBYpC0fTU2niyrrINrTPb7jpWAxu5HNPpoAtDt31pZZwmePisEbQ5wX2vpO4s_p-iTQNWe8QAiyN_L6vco2qHvWBV0sQ4lqDPm4MPuPCZN9vkfMbKhSA) today to residents of 15 countries the bloc deemed to have the coronavirus pandemic under control. The United States is not on the list.
Are COVID Surges Attributable to the Recent Protests?
Over the last month, the two biggest stories in America have been the anti-racism protests sparked by the death of George Floyd and the rapid resurgence of COVID-19 following two months of the virus slowing. The obvious question linking the two: Have weeks of mass assembly and protest been an accelerant to viral transmission?
It’s been difficult to drill down on this question, in part because of accusations of politicization and fuzzy data collection. New York City and San Francisco, for instance, have opted not to have their COVID contact tracers ask potentially infected people whether they attended a protest—a strategy that has undoubtedly made the relationship between protests and the pandemic harder to suss out.
Nevertheless, enough data has trickled in to give us a rough idea of our answer. Based on what we know now, while the George Floyd protests may have presented an increased infection risk to the protesters themselves, it seems they haven’t yet caused broader infection spikes in the cities in which they took place.
Let’s unpack this a little. To begin with, there’s the fact that many protesters have taken steps to cut down on transmission—maintaining some level of social distancing even in a crowd, wearing masks, and, most critically, protesting outdoors, where passing along a critical load of the virus is far more difficult.
This is the reason most frequently cited for why many hoped the protests would not lead to case spikes, but it’s not a sufficient explanation in itself. After all, as any epidemiologist would tell you, all these precautions are simply a matter of managing risk—they might limit spread within a group, but there’s no guarantee they can prevent it.
Sure enough, the data from those cities and states that have kept tabs on infections at protests shows that in many cases some transmission was in fact taking place. In Boston, 400 protesters later tested positive (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxNUMuOhCAQ_JrhtoSHjnrgsJf9DdNAq6wKBnCMf78wc9mE0NWV6nRXGcg4h3irI6RMzoRxdFY1YpAd70hBlvdtT1wap4i4g9tUjieS49SbM5Bd8HVAtC0fyKKkZig7KQYG_TDJATQ3Btp26I3s7SRJXTPCaR16gwpfGO_gkWxqyflID_n9ED_lXddFdZEGT03YC-HxSqWYEIOHl4tn7QQTrBT2rFiWb4eUwCzFRs7p65_4K2MqzBHDGxCn6izrGOesGfiTcsp_7bpO7cuJ9dGwfRY0nTplMGs9gUQVwVuqo5vnVARJm3kLGjbqMdc4xqLaT-_yPaIHvaH9JJU_0b6N5_tAVa1s5UCMH7LE9-SsbSQpC20oGXu1h-idn61LB2Sz_AFMG5Ht) for COVID. In Houston, police officers reported increased cases (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkEmOxCAMRU9T7IggY7Fg0Zu-RsRgCF0EIoaKcvsmVZIt2da3_P2UKGBjuvgRc0E1Q1qd5mPPhoUuqFWaPqcncnk1CWAXzvOSKqCjSu-UKC6Ge6GfJsrQxplhi5bPAUZG2DD3cmSzlqAMBTNMmqH7zCqqdhAUcHhDumIA5PlWypEfw8-j_21xnmcX4MwnwKtTcW-jLdZcYsBHigVygZSxBOsCNsJ77FqqmGIQb5dqxsI0Bd5FUpsLFluIyQI2Pl4a04lSMs_I8Z70hCyktSOjc0c7-qdfLzO9Xf96jGS3fZerzEWojwuUeBJBdzI5a3MTZKmsj1L4ZrbcTNam2mtw5VohCOlBf3GVL9_P9-U6gN_PeSjN5HfYGM6UTOOA2kEdG-jA95hCM69dPkRR2z9rT5WU) among their ranks after the protests. And in South Carolina, demonstrators cut off in-person protests early after 13 demonstrators tested positive (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUUGurCAQPM2wwwiKMy5YvM2_hmmgVd4gGGjHePuPbxIClaK7GqosEC4pX3pPhdhRME_e6V6O3VM8WUVOvNSL-TLNGXEDHzTlA9l-mOAtkE_xbpBKiZGt-jmMo7GjmVVn7Sja0amXVX2PSnbOyoHdYyY4nMdoUeMH85UisqBXor08up-H_FfXeZ7NCWX1caEU76bGpq1erAiB1grAkv_4QoWvleGF6vOI7zkR3qSPvKSDVm4hp-AjcCiV2ZA73FKs5UApF27Q3qSPM1pCV4VlK9t6tMONZd3s_IIZBuCmt5ILgVXLguJozNA5-UQxz1Opalez0haY17dE-2yFaPtRDI1oxK97v2f18fL96NttkU05TCGw7_tbLOsM0TUm-2UptaAYu4RkIDQR6bZ6qlXbET1dE0YwAd03BfrG9mcqXTvqiGcJSIT5S9ZoBtGqvmN1oEs1v6i3lGP11fmyA9n1PzJDsck) for the virus.
And yet many of the cities that experienced the biggest protests, like New York (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJw1UMuOhCAQ_JrhNgQQdTxw2Mv-huHRIquCgVbj3y-zk006Xd2d6lSqrEbwKd9qTwXJUSCPwSkphqbnPamT46_2RUIZpwyw6bAqzAeQ_TBrsBpDiu8H0bZ8ILOCVrZGcCkN413Hm66RoLvhxYwRop8m8pYZ9eECRAsKTsh3ikBWNSPu5dF8PcR3reu6OI23pT6ddS0BoYJLc-02ncH945MPT6dR0117IEEJJhjrGedMDryjnPIftyxTewaxPCTbvKDlMAW1XahNG8kq6-ioycH7UgnFWL8mo1caAd8ux8rajhjwHiFqs4L7BICfxP784L2DinCVFRAhf441lY6zVjakCrpUo4tqSzmG6F0ou0Y7_wLFOYHC), Philadelphia (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkM2SrCAMhZ-m2WkB_i9YzOa-hhUhItMIFkQt3_7S01VZJKmTnOTTQGhjetQRM7EzY5qdUa2cmkEMrGRGjN3IXJ7XhLiD84rSiew4F-80kIvhMyC7TkxsU1IMshn7pUFcp1F0QyvapV17KUYuEYB9bGY4jcOgUeGF6YkBmVcb0ZFfzc9L_itx33d9bM5DbeNV6iNFm2DPJdUxxQCXS2eujMsIGSvJxVTpeDlTialoCDO5YCsIpjJAUFrMKckl5wMXgreT6GtRi1_zfq_d5eT71fLdyjqfSybQ71rHnSWVyoJ6Sc7aXAR50dbHBXwdkD4E5qLaz-DomTHA4tF84dCX5t-v9ByoAt7ZIxGmb7MQ6wXv2oYVQxML1qD2mEK5ubx0AOntPzlJjEE), and Minneapolis (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkEuOxCAMRE_TLBGQby9YzKavERlwJ54QiIAkyu2Hnpa88KesUj0LBeeYbr3HXNiRMU3kdKuezSAHVjsnx25klKd3QtyAvC7pQLYfxpOFQjF8HlTXySdbtFOiF9a4Rlkzuqbveimb9zgADFIOrWQfmwkORxgsajwx3TEg83opZX80Pw_1qnVdl-IbhYCwR095C3yOZz3YmGKAk9KR6-QgLyZCcoy0EkqIQUgp2qfsueTy163ruztJrY9WbLPi-TC5gF25jRtLOkFw3CSa51wF2djZRwOeByyfeFNVbUegck8YwHh03-Tli-o_SLl31AGv7LEUTN9lxdFL0bUNq4YuVmZBbzEFCrOjvEOxyx8Vt4GO), have seen no major changes yet to their former coronavirus trajectories. The city of San Francisco might not be keeping track of protest attendance in its contact tracing, but Alameda County, which includes many of its suburbs, is asking those questions—and county officials say (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkMtuxCAMRb9m2AUBeS9YdNPfiAh4MjQEKCZJ8_clMxKSr62LH0erDEtIl4wBM9kR0mSNbMRY97wnRRk-tAOxOD0TwKaskzntQOI-O6tVtsHfH0Tb8pG85DibetCdZroHYwwXILhoGjP0TLd1bcg9ZlK7seA1SDggXcEDcfKVc8RH_fUQ3-Wd50nXXzA0pKWkqN_-ovjYdXU_FOVDpUMKXh027VhhtCtUzxS2anZKr5WzB2C1qZwhVTGFDJixgr8IqURUF7FSMMFYzzhnzcg7yin_Mev6bA8r1kfDtkVQ3GfMpR_VYSNJJuUNnZNdFiwGnPXiwqwc9ZBvJlNxbbu3-ZrAq9mB-eDKH77v6_MVQXo40cG926dYGHactU1NykATCmgvt5C89YuxGFXWr3__mJSj) the protests are “not emerging as a risk for the most recent cases that we’re seeing in the county.”
So what gives here? The missing link here appears to be in the behavior not of the protestors but of everyone else. These mass protests didn’t begin back in April, when most of the country was still hermetically sealed away, but in June, when it was already well on its way to reopening. The protesters were the ones making headlines, but the whole country was already beginning to get comfortable mingling again.
Or at least they were getting comfortable, until the protests started. For many, the prospect of major civic unrest proved just as powerful an inducement to stay at home as the virus itself had months before. According to a fascinating new study (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkEmOhSAQQE_z2UkA5wWL3vQ1DEJ9pUUwUGh7-8b-SaWm1Pi0QlhCvOUREpKcIE7WyEaMdc97UjzDh3YgNk3vCLAr6yTGDOTIs7NaoQ3-aRBty0eyyr4e5lqPAkTTvdVolGB13_Z8GHir1TCSZ82ksrHgNUg4Id7BA3FyRTzSq_56ie8i13VR7T3VYS-RYIIVw7rHb4rKqSgdYvDqtDGnSqsEqTpiQEiYqtkpvVXOniW5K0SIFUZvSpP1Bn7pirsjVj5zWc84Z83IO8op_zHb9m5PK7ZXw_ZF0JTnhGXYcwmJMipv6BztsqRSkGa9uDArRz3gg2QqVXv2Fu8JvJodmA8t_OD9fx7vA6SHKzl4DvskC8KOs7apSVloQuHs5R6it34xNh0K9foHyfqRuw) of cellphone data in 300 U.S. cities from the National Bureau of Economic Research, this actually meant that social distancing increased on the whole in cities with major protests during the days when those protests were at their fiercest.
This one-two punch—that protests may have raised the risk of infection among the marchers but indirectly lowered it in their communities more widely—has been garbled in some press reports, which have erroneously suggested that it demonstrates no link between protests and the pandemic at all. This is both misleading and decreasingly true: Although the protests are ongoing, the major social unrest that accompanied them for much of June has largely subsided. Going by the logic of the NBER report, this would suggest that ongoing protests could be more likely to have a net positive effect on new infections.
On the other side of the coin, some commentators (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUEmOhDAMfE3nBsoCDRxymMt8A2VxhwyQoMRpxLx-wrTkg11eylVGIbiYLnnEjKRkSLO3suOTGNhAambZ2I_E5_mVAHblN4mpADmK3rxR6GO4F3jfs4ks0ozTKPg49sOktBGCWmbh2UEnRg2DMOSmmVWxHoIBCW9IVwxANrkgHvkhvh78u8Z5nq2J-w4BVbp25dSvD3BDtRmiWpoUcdlVqCUu0By1hIy5UcE2N5BLclCbxEtOOaUDZYx2E3u2rGU_dl1f_dvz9dHR3fE2F51RmfUmIEmmeqXVyTuX60DWxm1Rq60NgLfw-f6sBI_XDEHpDezHE_yY-C8RrwNkgDNvgAjpA1ajnoz2nSCV0MbqZpB7TMEHZ30-FJrlD0OHiz4) have pointed to the relative youth of many new COVID patients as a strong indicator that protests, overwhelmingly constituted of the young, may have played a major role in the latest surge. There may be something to this—but experts we spoke to point out that young people are also likeliest to be participating in high-risk activities like socializing at bars (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwtkEuOwyAQRE8TdrYAG38WLGYz17D4dJyeYLCg7Si3HzwZqSVKpaILnjMEa8pvvadC7CiQF_S6l3M3ipFV5cWkJoZluWeAzWDQlA9g-2EDOkOY4nVBKiVm9tDAHVfDNPp-7o2wwk7zXU5SCD8oI1XPrprFHB4hOtBwQn6nCCzoB9Febt3XTX7Xeb1ebbQuwqu0Lm3VuWQ9jtL8qwCmUDOpZoe0B2hcihEcgW9OLEjNhu6Bq4mNNbkhqNnajYTnFc0pmhPztU3ITnaTZKgll5yPXAjez2JoRSt-_PN5VyfK563n2yrbcthCxj2vR7Gss4m-tRnXtdRAsW4NyZrQRqCL0FJT2xGR3gtEYwP4Dzz60P5jQe8d9PWlAESQP2YlOgiu-o7VQp8q9qi3lCPG1WPZDbnHL4NdmMQ). As Dr. Anthony Fauci testified (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkMuO6yAMhp-m7Igg13bBYjbnNSIDTsqEQIShUd7-kKlkWb7qtz8DGdeYLnVEyqwQptlZ1bevbpITq5GVz-HJHM1LQtzBeZVTQXYU7Z2B7GK4F9phkC_2VlZ2UsqpG57L2JlxMqPQU2_MMHYoJujZLTNDsQ6DQYUfTFcMyLx653zQo_t5tP-qnefZ6EIuIFVHzmJqTNxrZ4FiHCcPO_ED4-GRQ-YaEvEQMz8Rkgsr34E24vCJzt6pSfG0xFvRCj4yp-5ATEJK0b_k2MhG_tptW4aPa7dHL_a1bahoymC2W5cllSDYRie3rlQHSJvVRw2-CZhvGHOd2ktw-ZoxgPZov5zyF-zf2_k6UAU8yWPOmL7FCm-UYug7VgVtrISD2mMK9Wrr6IBs3v8B3YeR0Q) yesterday in Congress: “Bars, really not good. Really not good.”
While there are undeniable partisan pressures to think of the latest round of COVID transmission as being simply due to protests or simply due to increased economic activity, the reality is that these things likely feed into one another. One place where the disease has taken off in recent days is Atlanta, a city that was racked by protests and is in a state that was one of the earliest in the nation to begin the reopening process. To suppose there wasn’t some overlap beggars belief; it isn’t as though America is made up of those who protest police brutality and those who get drinks with their friends.It’s the exponential logic of infection: Bars may be more dangerous than protests, but the more bar infections take place, the more dangerous protests will get, and the more protest infections take place, the less safe anyone will be at a bar.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 01, 2020, 10:59:44 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 01, 2020, 10:30:55 AM
I think people really missed (and the gov't didn't stress) that reopening restaurants and/or bars did NOT mean that you should go hang out with friends from outside your household at said restaurants and bars.

A few examples:

  • Coworker in Austin, when they reopened, was excited to go out to brunch with her girlfriends. It was 4 of them (none from the same household obviously), but if one of them was asymptomatic/presymptomatic and contagious, it likely would have resulted in close to 3 additional unnecessary cases plus whoever they spread it to down the road.
  • My wife and I, since it has reopened, have gone to our wine bar every other Friday (when we don't have the kids). We try to be smart about it--there's plenty of room on the patio for social distancing. We wear masks whenever we're not at our table. But we've seen multiple other tables where it is *clear* that it's a collection of people from different households. People are just out meeting friends, and there's no social distancing within the confines of their table. Again, even one asymptomatic/presymptomatic contagious case means the potential start of a whole new cluster of infections.
  • One of the patients at my wife's office was either showing symptoms and needed to be test, or was actually positive (I don't recall which). She was arguing with the doctor that Newport Beach wasn't a problem because nobody she knew had it (Narrator: Newport Beach is a hot spot in OC). She was also arguing that she couldn't have gotten it because she was being so careful (Narrator: she was not being careful--she was going out to dinner with other couples every night since restaurants had reopened).

That's one advantage to closing bars while leaving restaurants open. Bars are almost by default a gathering place for people from different households. Much like the beaches, it's not like most young single people are going to a bar alone. There have been numerous stories of bars causing clusters.

Restaurants are sometimes a gathering place for people from separate households, but probably easier to take good precautions than bars, and a lot of time restaurants are for families or couples who can't distance from each other anyway. I do know a few restaurants here have needed to close temporarily due to staff contracting COVID, but I haven't heard of many issues where restaurants have caused a cluster of infections within their patrons.

Gyms are less of an issue, as long as they have proper precautions in place (all equipment wiped down with sanitary wipes between users, anyone not doing cardio needs a mask, physical distancing / occupancy restrictions, etc). Same with beauty salons/etc. My wife got her nails done, and there were pretty extreme sanitation/distancing measures being observed. Plastic barriers between chairs, distancing between chairs, everyone (patron and salon worker) masked, hand sanitizer both before and after treatment, etc. Much like a haircut you can't exactly be 6' physically distant and still receive service, but they seemed to be doing a good job from what she said.

But if we don't hammer home the idea that households should try to mix as little as possible to avoid the spread, it doesn't matter what we do or don't reopen because it's PEOPLE that spread this thing to each other with their behavior. Businesses being open just make it easier for people to be stupid together. We're going to have another problem in about 2 weeks from 4th of July parties/BBQs that don't involve businesses being open at all.


This is an exceptional post.

To my dismay and against my wishes, my wife met three girlfriends for dinner last night, outdoors. She does not take kindly to being told what to do, like most people. So, she went anyway, even though I asked her not to. Maybe I should have begged.

I just printed this post and showed it to her. She's now done taking risks. I told her I'd let her know my test results from Monday, and asked that she call her friends and ask them to be tested.

Dammit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 01, 2020, 11:14:11 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on June 29, 2020, 10:18:03 PM
I’m over the coronavirus. I don’t give a shit. Let’s go back to normal and get on with our lives and stop being a nation of scared idiots.
Does wearing a mask = scared idiot?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 01, 2020, 11:36:22 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 30, 2020, 04:28:50 PM
DES MOINES, Iowa (IOWA'S NEWS NOW) — Governor Kim Reynolds says the massive surge in reported COVID-19 recoveries in Iowa over the last 24- hours is because of a revised protocol for determining case recoveries by the Iowa Department of Public Health.

IDPH data shows 5,324 new recoveries during the time between 10:00 Monday morning and 10:00 Tuesday morning - a 30% increase from Monday's total of 17,711 and 23% of the pandemic total of 23,035.

During a press conference Tuesday morning in Steamboat Rock, Governor Reynolds said confirmed COVID-19 cases in Iowa will now be considered recovered 28 days after a positive test unless the state is told otherwise, like in situations of hospitalization. The governor says the change comes because state investigators following up on confirmed cases statuses aren't hearing back from people that have tested positive for the virus.

Aside from the seismic shift in activity and recovery rates because of the adjusted rationale, IDPH's COVID-19 data is showing an increase of 213 confirmed cases of the virus from 10:00 a.m. on June 29 to 10:00 a.m. on June 30. Those new cases come from 3,345 new tests. Five more deaths are also being reported over that 24-hour stretch - meaning 712 Iowans have now died from COVID-19 during the pandemic.


There are now 28,941 total cases confirmed in Iowa from 303,772 tests. The positivity rate is 9.53%.

RMCC data shows 133 current hospitalizations for the virus in Iowa - 14 more than yesterday. 34 of those patients are in the ICU - one fewer than Monday. 20 patients are on ventilators - two more than 24 hours ago.
There is a significant percentage (but I don't know what it is) of people who "recover" but are never the same.  Most commonly, their lungs are permanently scarred.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 01, 2020, 11:41:40 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 01, 2020, 11:36:22 AM
There is a significant percentage (but I don't know what it is) of people who "recover" but are never the same.  Most commonly, their lungs are permanently scarred.

I think that's mostly true for the already compromised, unless I'm missing something.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 01, 2020, 11:52:49 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 01, 2020, 09:06:29 AM
There is nothing wrong with optimism.
Then I guess there's nothing wrong with repeated disappointments about important things.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 01, 2020, 11:58:02 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 01, 2020, 11:41:40 AM
I think that's mostly true for the already compromised, unless I'm missing something.
Not saying you're incorrect, but I haven't heard that the "longer term" effects are limited to vulnerable groups.

I posted a few days back about a study of people who had long-term symptoms (i.e. dragging on up to 2 months), and the vast majority considered themselves healthy prior to infection. I can't find the link now though... 

I don't think we know enough to figure out these long-term effects yet, and as a result I don't think we should be claiming yet that it's more common among vulnerable populations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on July 01, 2020, 12:26:43 PM
70 years from now I predict future generations will look at the "I won't wear a mask" movement in the same way we look at people who cut the seat-belts out of their cars when they were first introduced. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on July 01, 2020, 12:27:15 PM
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/07/01/885263658/green-yellow-orange-or-red-this-new-tool-shows-covid-19-risk-in-your-county (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/07/01/885263658/green-yellow-orange-or-red-this-new-tool-shows-covid-19-risk-in-your-county)

covid by county
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 01, 2020, 12:29:23 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 01, 2020, 11:52:49 AM
Then I guess there's nothing wrong with repeated disappointments about important things. 
I choose optimism over pessimism all day long. I'm a happy person, and I'm very often not disappointed.

Right now, I'm disappointed in the stupid kids, and my wife, for a stupid move.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 01, 2020, 12:29:34 PM
Quote from: Entropy on July 01, 2020, 12:26:43 PM
70 years from now I predict future generations will look at the "I won't wear a mask" movement in the same way we look at people who cut the seat-belts out of their cars when they were first introduced. 
omg, stop attacking conservatives!  :96:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on July 01, 2020, 12:30:53 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 01, 2020, 12:29:34 PM
omg, stop attacking conservatives!  :96:
 I know why you made this comment... but for everyone, I have more conservative leans than liberal.  I'm not far right, but I am right of center
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 01, 2020, 12:35:51 PM
Also, stop making blatantly political posts.  I'll begin deleting once again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 01, 2020, 12:38:01 PM
Anyway, back on topic, just my anecdotal evidence but mask usage is WAY up in the small-town suburbs around Austin.  Austin proper has been doing really well, >80% in most indoor places I've been two weeks ago, and now since all of the new cases over the past few weeks, it's at or near 100%.

My suburb of Cedar Park might have been 30% 2-3 weeks ago, and it's up to 80%+ at this point.  People are listening, and most are willing to comply.

Also, Austin and all of its suburbs now have mandatory-mask orders when entering businesses.  San Antonio does as well.  Not sure about Dallas or Houston.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 01, 2020, 01:28:27 PM
I dont even own a mask

I guess I will have to order some from amazon

and I never cut the seat belts out of my car but I did disable the little irritating bell that goes off when not wearing them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 01, 2020, 01:40:27 PM
My mom made quite a few masks for my family back in March.  I've worn one every single time I've entered a business since then.  

When inside a restaurant or brewery, though, I've removed it while seated at my table.  Social distancing has been in place in all of those locations, tables spaced very far apart, and the majority of them I've been to, have been outdoors patio/biergarten type of seating.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 01, 2020, 01:52:58 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 01, 2020, 12:29:34 PM
omg, stop attacking conservatives!  :96:
Look at the map entropy just posted- specifically Florida.  It looks like a political map.  All the red areas are in and around large metro areas- where you are hard pressed to find a conservative.  A lot of protests in those areas though.

it seems to me it really is not as political as you make it out to be. It seems it has more to do with the age demographic. The age of those new cases in Florida continues to go lower and is now somewhere right around 30. 

do you honestly think young people in large metro areas in Florida are conservatives?

i live in a mostly conservative county- although there is a enormous influx of new permanent residents from the NE.  Either way- nearly everyone around here are in masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 01, 2020, 02:11:47 PM
Here in Texico the highest concentration of viral spread is in the 20-29 age group.  It's definitely an age thing more than it is a political thing.

So that means, there's no need to make blatantly political posts on this thread.

I begin deleting with the next one. 

Thank you for your support.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 01, 2020, 02:22:58 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 01, 2020, 01:52:58 PM
Look at the map entropy just posted- specifically Florida.  It looks like a political map.  All the red areas are in and around large metro areas- where you are hard pressed to find a conservative.  A lot of protests in those areas though.

it seems to me it really is not as political as you make it out to be. It seems it has more to do with the age demographic. The age of those new cases in Florida continues to go lower and is now somewhere right around 30. 

do you honestly think young people in large metro areas in Florida are conservatives?

i live in a mostly conservative county- although there is a enormous influx of new permanent residents from the NE.  Either way- nearly everyone around here are in masks.
It's a sorry state of affairs when both parties cannot stand beside each other during a pandemic.

Imagine if both parties were united on this from the start.  It wouldn't be political AT ALL.

Republicans should have taken this more seriously and urged caution from the beginning.  On the flip side, Democrats shouldn't have skewered Republicans for being slow to act.  I *think* most Republicans would have come on board eventually if they hadn't been forced to defend their position so much in the beginning.  Conservatives tend to move a little slower, be more cautious, and need a little more thought before acting.  However, if they get their heels dug in, nobody is more stubborn.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 01, 2020, 02:23:34 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 01, 2020, 02:11:47 PM
Here in Texico the highest concentration of viral spread is in the 20-29 age group.  It's definitely an age thing more than it is a political thing.

So that means, there's no need to make blatantly political posts on this thread.

I begin deleting with the next one.

Thank you for your support.
literally posted this seconds before my post.

oops.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 01, 2020, 02:28:55 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 01, 2020, 02:23:34 PM
literally posted this seconds before my post.

oops.
I think you made good points.

OK-- the NEXT political post will get deleted... :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 01, 2020, 02:38:12 PM
Politicians are crooks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 01, 2020, 02:46:24 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 01, 2020, 02:38:12 PM
Politicians are crooks.
OK that's a good one, too.

The NEXT political post, gets whacked.  I mean it this time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 01, 2020, 02:53:42 PM
I think everyone was slow to act, except for the travel ban from China in last January. That was good. I think the slow action had a lot to do with not knowing what we were in for - China covered shit up for a long time, and they still are. The travel ban from Europe was clearly too late, and the massive spring break parties on the Gulf beaches were a fiasco.

Early March, the NY mayor was encouraging people to go on with their lives. End of February the House speaker was urging people to party in SF's Chinatown. Most governors all across the country had their heads up their asses.

Then, the shit it the fan in late March and everyone is pointing fingers all of a sudden. That is when things turned partisan, and THAT, is unfortunate.

This is like a war. I wish we could all come together and do what is right for one another.

We must declare our Independence Day on this virus and knock it out.





In my mind, this is NOT a political post. It's non-partisan. But, if it must be deleted, so be it. I won't be offended one iota.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 01, 2020, 03:18:47 PM
I was trying to think up a blatantly political post, but I couldn't, sorry.

We'll get through this eventually.  The wife wanted to stop by a mall today, I was amazed how many people were there midday, most wearing masks.  This was an average suburban mall, nothing special.  Crowded, it is next to Costco, but that wasn't why it's crowded.  Costco crowd was manageable.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on July 01, 2020, 03:25:04 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 01, 2020, 09:06:29 AM
You didn't need to tell us what we already knew. We don't need to be told by you.

Yes, WE KNOW. Everyone here wears masks. Not everyone here is on a government job and can sit home. Reopening had to happen.
Testify Badge Testify I was just going to post.
"And we told you not every one can suck on the governments tits while posting on messaged boards." 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 01, 2020, 03:50:42 PM
The 781,000 total deaths in the United States in the three months through May 30 were about 122,300, or nearly 19% higher, than what would normally be expected, according to the researchers. Of the 122,300 excess deaths, 95,235 were attributed to Covid-19, they said. Most of the rest of the excess deaths, researchers said, were likely related to or directly caused by the coronavirus.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/official-us-coronavirus-death-toll-is-a-substantial-undercount-of-actual-tally-new-yale-study-finds.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/official-us-coronavirus-death-toll-is-a-substantial-undercount-of-actual-tally-new-yale-study-finds.html)

I still see folks arguing that "we" are OVER counting the death toll because hospitals get paid more to count any death as COVID.

I also see folks posting on FB why they will refuse to wear a mask or get vaccinated.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 01, 2020, 03:51:19 PM
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/covid-19-coronavirus-why-wearing-masks-controversial?fbclid=IwAR2UluMdSz7VymhbPNSNY2rLBGJCZeTYaZuiDxuEeBKrW6sUK6ox9Wzv33I (https://www.sciencenews.org/article/covid-19-coronavirus-why-wearing-masks-controversial?fbclid=IwAR2UluMdSz7VymhbPNSNY2rLBGJCZeTYaZuiDxuEeBKrW6sUK6ox9Wzv33I)

That explains the reasoning behind the CDC’s recommendation that everyone wear a mask in public: The covering may lessen the risk of mask wearers who don’t know they’re infected from passing the virus to someone else.

“We believe now that we are learning more about this novel virus that there is transmission from asymptomatic individuals,” Quigley says. Studies have determined that people can transmit the virus for a couple of days before symptoms start, and that some people who never develop symptoms can be contagious (https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-who-asymptomatic-cases-spread) (SN: 6/9/20).

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 01, 2020, 03:58:32 PM
Orange County announced closure of bars which don't serve food, and about an hour later Newsom announced a closure of bars and indoor dining affecting 19 California counties, including Orange. 

Apparently Newsom reminded people that a big source of transmission is family gatherings with people outside one's household. Good that someone said it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 01, 2020, 04:09:59 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 01, 2020, 03:58:32 PM
Apparently Newsom reminded people that a big source of transmission is family gatherings with people outside one's household. Good that someone said it.

It is good that he said it, but I fear the advice will not be heeded by those who didn't understand the need to this point.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 01, 2020, 04:13:01 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 01, 2020, 04:09:59 PM
It is good that he said it, but I fear the advice will not be heeded by those who didn't understand the need to this point.
Oh, don't get me wrong. I'm not optimist.

I don't believe for a second that anyone will listen. But at least he said it.

Here was the excerpt I read... 


Quote
What would the Fourth of July be without families getting together to celebrate their freedom on Independence Day with a back-yard barbecue?
Gov. Gavin Newsom says this would be a great year to find out.
“One of the areas of biggest concern as it relates to the spread of COVID-19 in this state remains family gatherings,” Newsom said Tuesday, promising to deliver more guidance Wednesday on this weekend’s backyard barbecues.
Of the 19 counties on California’s watch list for worrisome COVID-19 trends, family gatherings were cited as factors for outbreaks in Glenn, Sacramento, Solano and Stanislaus, while gatherings generally were listed among causes in Ventura, Santa Barbara, San Joaquin, San Bernardino and Orange. Mother’s Day and Memorial Day gatherings have already been blamed for some of the outbreaks.
Newsom paints a vivid picture of how social distancing can go by the wayside at your typical Fourth of July family barbecue.
Everyone “may walk into that barbecue with masks on. They put the cooler down. Immediately the mask comes off. They have a glass of water and all of a sudden nieces and nephews start congregating around, and then they’re jumping on top of Uncle Joe, and then Uncle Joe is putting them back to Aunt Jane,” Newsom said.
“And all of a sudden here comes Uncle Bob two hours late, he gives everyone a hug, and they’re — ‘Hey Uncle Bob, where’s the mask?’ — and Uncle Bob is ‘I don’t believe in that,’ so the whole thing starts to take shape and you start to see the kind of spread that is the top concern that our health officers have,” he said.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 01, 2020, 04:18:12 PM
Some will heed I think, not enough I fear.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 01, 2020, 04:37:51 PM
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01950-0?fbclid=IwAR2abRfb6mcO5mv8VA8-aD0fkInecEz4epITNfEpa6GaW6TWqj4lLFva2_k (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01950-0?fbclid=IwAR2abRfb6mcO5mv8VA8-aD0fkInecEz4epITNfEpa6GaW6TWqj4lLFva2_k)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 01, 2020, 05:41:40 PM
Some articles and studies have been trickling out recently pointing to possible higher immunity due to T-cell response. I don't believe any of it is peer reviewed or confirmed yet, but it's a start...


https://news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid-19-is-probably-higher-than-tests-have-shown (https://news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid-19-is-probably-higher-than-tests-have-shown)

https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-35331/v1 (https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-35331/v1)


And an older article from back in May, this might be the first one I ever saw that mentioned it:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 01, 2020, 06:00:23 PM
And we've had our first delete.

Please no political bullshit on this thread, it's been going pretty well.

Thank you for your support.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 01, 2020, 06:37:57 PM
Arizona with nearly a 1/3 positive testing rate.  That is extremely unsettling.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 01, 2020, 06:47:56 PM
Texas's moving 7 day average rate just eclipsed 6,000.  Over 80,000 active cases.  14% positive test rate.

Florida has 15% positive test rate, 130,000 active cases.


CA, NC, SC, AL, LA, GA ... not looking good, either.  But TX, FL, and AZ are particularly bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 01, 2020, 06:51:21 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 01, 2020, 06:37:57 PM
Arizona with nearly a 1/3 positive testing rate.  That is extremely unsettling.
are you talking about one days testing 

numbers please cause to date they have 727000 tests and 82000 positive  so give us more info
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on July 01, 2020, 06:59:29 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 01, 2020, 06:51:21 PM
are you talking about one days testing

numbers please cause to date they have 727000 tests and 82000 positive  so give us more info
I presume he means the last couple of day's batches of tests have the virus batting .330+
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 01, 2020, 07:01:16 PM
we dont know where they are sampling

maybe a hot spot
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 01, 2020, 07:33:08 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 01, 2020, 06:51:21 PM
are you talking about one days testing

numbers please cause to date they have 727000 tests and 82000 positive  so give us more info
yes, last 24 hours.

I just overheard it on the news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 01, 2020, 07:46:28 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 01, 2020, 07:33:08 PM
yes, last 24 hours.

I just overheard it on the news.
new tests today 20151

positive today 4878

24%

their positive % to date is just over 10%

considering the fact that Arizona has done over 700,000 tests todays number seems low

they might be testing very hot spots who knows
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 01, 2020, 07:52:21 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 01, 2020, 07:46:28 PM
new tests today 20151

positive today 4878

24%

their positive % to date is just over 10%

considering the fact that Arizona has done over 700,000 tests todays number seems low

they might be testing very hot spots who knows
I think they were referring to the upcoming numbers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 01, 2020, 10:24:36 PM
Georgia with almost 3,000 new cases reported.  June 16 was 664.  Hospitalizations 1,459.  June 16 was 875.

New case rate is double every week at this pace.  Not anywhere near a good story here.

We stopped off at a suburban mall after Costco and it was fairly crowded, probably 90% wearing masks.

I think GA should reshut some things and hope.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 01, 2020, 10:30:47 PM
Indoor places where large groups of non-related people gather and don't social distance and can't wear masks because they're drinking beverages that lower inhibitions and make people less cautious.

That's what needs to be shut down.

And, I honestly never thought I'd be advocating for shutting down bars, but here we are, this is what 2020 has done to us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 02, 2020, 12:00:26 AM
Guys, calm down!  It's going to disappear.  One day, it's like a miracle, it will disappear.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 02, 2020, 07:53:05 AM
I think if we get an effective vaccine and immunize 60% of us, it will fall off the front pages.

The flu season is rarely even mentioned as a thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 02, 2020, 08:49:12 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html)

Good jobs report, so there is a bit of good news to be had.  I am pondering the difference in attitudes created by:

1.  I read about it nonstop in the news, and
2.  I know several people this impacted.

Item 1 may generate shorter term attitudes, Item 2 may generate a more lasting feeling that "it" is real and close and hard.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 02, 2020, 08:58:03 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 02, 2020, 12:00:26 AM
Guys, calm down!  It's going to disappear.  One day, it's like a miracle, it will disappear.
all is calm at 320's place orange man

it may not disappear but we can and will whip it to its knees

one thing everone needs to understand that while we need to reduce positives as much as possible,
positives does not equal death

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 02, 2020, 09:51:42 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 02, 2020, 08:58:03 AM
all is calm at 320's place orange man

it may not disappear but we can and will whip it to its knees

one thing everone needs to understand that while we need to reduce positives as much as possible,
positives does not equal death


It's not the Bubonic Plague that's for sure.

It has to be kept out of the nursing homes and LTC facilities.  Absolutely has to. 

Everything else, is going to run its course, and there's not much we can do to stop it.  All we can do is slow it and try to avoid overwhelming the hospitals.

I'm hopeful an effective vaccine can be found, but I'm not planning on it, and I'm telling my elected officials that they can't plan on it, either.  Absolutely zero public health or public policy decisions can be made on the assumption we will ever have an effective vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 02, 2020, 10:55:25 AM
so, I'm hearing that many more folks are wearing masks

if masks are effective, the curve should begin to flatten again
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 02, 2020, 11:11:45 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 02, 2020, 10:55:25 AM
so, I'm hearing that many more folks are wearing masks

if masks are effective, the curve should begin to flatten again
Not as long as people are doing this...

https://abcnews.go.com/US/alabama-students-throwing-covid-parties-infected-officials/story?id=71552514

 (https://abcnews.go.com/US/alabama-students-throwing-covid-parties-infected-officials/story?id=71552514)To be perfectly honest, this story completely pegs my BS detector to the red. I think someone either invented this story as a way to freak out the authorities or it's an urban legend where people have "heard about" these parties that don't exist but the rumor makes people think they're all over the place. Perhaps there was one, once, and the legend grew but the incidence of these parties didn't.

But I couldn't come across this and not mention it here...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 02, 2020, 11:25:32 AM
It could be that students are throwing parties and someone called them COVID parties as a kind of joke.

One frat at UNC would hold Pearl Harbor Day parties.  I stopped once to ask them why and they didn't know what Pearl Harbor was about. 

That day didn't live in infamy everywhere.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 02, 2020, 11:28:59 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 02, 2020, 11:25:32 AM
It could be that students are throwing parties and someone called them COVID parties as a kind of joke.

One frat at UNC would hold Pearl Harbor Day parties.  I stopped once to ask them why and they didn't know what Pearl Harbor was about.

That day didn't live in infamy everywhere.



Yeah, students throw all sorts of irreverent and/or inappropriately themed parties, without intentionally trying to get sick.

But they also do really stupid shit, so it wouldn't surprise me at all if they're actually doing this.  Heck, there were actually kids that were licking toilets attempting to get COVID, and posting it on social media.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 02, 2020, 11:37:20 AM
Yup, my guess is students wanted to have parties and when asked about COVID and were they worried, they dropped the "I am too young to die early" card and lampooned it.

And they could actually BE COVID parties and they may well regret their hilarity.

Cytokine explosions can happen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 02, 2020, 11:53:44 AM
Oh yeah, for sure.  I'd expect that, intentional or not, ANY large gathering of 18-22 year olds, at this point, would effectively be a COVID party.  It's out there, they're not taking it seriously, and they're spreading it rapidly.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 02, 2020, 11:56:51 AM
I have mentioned that my kid living in Texas and how is in excellent shape said it was NO FUN AT ALL.

Doing fine now, nothing lingering.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 02, 2020, 11:57:37 AM
I wonder how soon one of us here contracts it.  I'm not wishing that on anyone obviously, and I'd guess we are pretty careful relatively.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 02, 2020, 12:02:25 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/dr-scott-gottlieb-says-he-thinks-the-worst-of-the-us-coronavirus-epidemic-will-be-over-by-january.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/dr-scott-gottlieb-says-he-thinks-the-worst-of-the-us-coronavirus-epidemic-will-be-over-by-january.html)

“This will be over by January one way or the other,” he said on “Squawk Box (https://www.cnbc.com/squawk-box-us/).” “Either we’ll get to a vaccine or we’ll just have spread enough it’s just going to stop spreading efficiently, so we have a short period of time to get through. We should do everything we can to preserve what we want of our way of life over that time period to just get through it.”

Policy makers are betting on an effective vaccine or that enough of the population will recover from the virus and achieve so-called herd immunity to curb the outbreak. However, there’s still no clear evidence that antibodies (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/coronavirus-vaccine-will-not-be-a-cure-all-virologist-warns.html) give people any protection against being reinfected.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 02, 2020, 12:26:22 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 02, 2020, 11:57:37 AM
I wonder how soon one of us here contracts it.  I'm not wishing that on anyone obviously, and I'd guess we are pretty careful relatively.
One of my wife's doctors shares an office at the hospital (not the same workplace as my wife's office--it's the doctor's other job) and her office mate got it bad. Amazingly, my wife's doctor seems to have missed it. Luckily there was no interaction between my wife and that doctor since the other doctor tested positive, and we should be out of the woods on that one.

Yesterday we learned that the other doctor in the office is now symptomatic, as is her husband (a NICU doctor in Long Beach). That doctor was in the office on Tuesday, and although there was no *close* contact between her and my wife, there was interaction. 

So we're a little nervous right now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on July 02, 2020, 12:44:49 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 02, 2020, 11:11:45 AM


 (https://abcnews.go.com/US/alabama-students-throwing-covid-parties-infected-officials/story?id=71552514)To be perfectly honest, this story completely pegs my BS detector to the red. I think someone either invented this story as a way to freak out the authorities or it's an urban legend where people have "heard about" these parties that don't exist but the rumor makes people think they're all over the place. Perhaps there was one, once, and the legend grew but the incidence of these parties didn't.

But I couldn't come across this and not mention it here...
The story might be urban legend, but the idea behind it isn't. A major outbreak in Minnesota was traced back to four bars in which the place was packed and no one was wearing masks. Even the Minnesota Licensed Beverage Association, the state's bar trade group, told their membership to follow the state's rules or else (https://www.mlba.com/states-are-shutting-down-alcohol-sales-again/). Based on their wording in the press release, this isn't a popular stance among bar owners.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on July 02, 2020, 01:17:09 PM
My sister had it and so did her husband. Both tested positive. They are both 18-35, very healthy and they both work out all the time. Zero underlying conditions. He had literally nothing, while she had a fever for about 4 days and had very minor pneumonia, she was 100% better in about a week. 

Which again brings me back to my original point- this thing is not that deadly to the young or the healthy. Do not need to lockdown and tank the economy into a world depression because of it. 

Ask that the old, the morbidly obese, diabetic, sick, and immune compromised to take precautions and stay isolated if they must. Ask people to wear masks in large Public gatherings, and ask people to wash their hands and practice proper hygiene. Why is this so hard?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on July 02, 2020, 01:21:59 PM
Another thing that really chaps my ass about the media is how they report this. I read an article where the headline was young healthy 17 year old dies of COVID. 

You click the link to actually read the article, the fucking kid was almost 400 pounds and diabetic. How in the hell is that “young and healthy”. It’s just young. 

This crazy media actually tries to make people believe that being morbidly obese is A-OK, normal, and dandy. It’s not.

You had people in the media and on social media attacking the singer Adele for losing like 100 pounds and posting pics of her new body. Instead of praising her and saying wow she looks great and really put in the effort to lose weight and become healthy- they were slamming her. Makes no sense. At all.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 02, 2020, 01:23:37 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on July 02, 2020, 01:17:09 PM
My sister had it and so did her husband. Both tested positive. They are both 18-35, very healthy and they both work out all the time. Zero underlying conditions. He had literally nothing, while she had a fever for about 4 days and had very minor pneumonia, she was 100% better in about a week.

Which again brings me back to my original point- this thing is not that deadly to the young or the healthy. Do not need to lockdown and tank the economy into a world depression because of it.

Ask that the old, the morbidly obese, diabetic, sick, and immune compromised to take precautions and stay isolated if they must. Ask people to wear masks in large Public gatherings, and ask people to wash their hands and practice proper hygiene. Why is this so hard?
No matter how careful we are, old and at risk people will get infected.  There's simply no way to be 100% safe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on July 02, 2020, 01:28:46 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 02, 2020, 01:23:37 PM
No matter how careful we are, old and at risk people will get infected.  There's simply no way to be 100% safe.
That’s life. There’s no way to be 100% safe in life period. Have to go on living. Can’t hide inside like a pansy and be scared of life.

I do a shit ton of driving. I’ve probably got a way better shot of being killed in a car accident than this COVID bullshit. Especially in South Florida. Have you seen the roads there? 3-4-5 Horrific accidents every single hr of every single day here. It’s insane. Do I stop driving? No. Why? Because I’m not a fucking pussy and I have to live my life.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 02, 2020, 01:30:38 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 02, 2020, 01:23:37 PM
No matter how careful we are, old and at risk people will get infected.  There's simply no way to be 100% safe.
You remind me of this clip


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsx2vdn7gpY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsx2vdn7gpY)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 02, 2020, 02:16:38 PM

That’s life. There’s no way to be 100% safe in life period. Have to go on living. Can’t hide inside like a pansy and be scared of life.

I do a shit ton of driving. I’ve probably got a way better shot of being killed in a car accident than this COVID bullshit. Especially in South Florida. Have you seen the roads there? 3-4-5 Horrific accidents every single hr of every single day here. It’s insane. Do I stop driving? No. Why? Because I’m not a fucking pussy and I have to live my life.

I'm trying to say it isn't about us.  It is about others.  The primary reason I'm a safe driver is because I don't want to hurt others.  Same logic applies here.

My parents are older and my father is in and out of nursing homes.  Am I a pussy because I don't want him dead?  It's so simple, too.  Wear a mask.  Social distance as much as possible.  Do it for my dad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 02, 2020, 02:30:14 PM
older parents need to keep themselves safe

counting on the general public to help them be safe is a bad risk

not that the general public doesn't have a responsibility, but ....... you know.......
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on July 02, 2020, 02:59:59 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 02, 2020, 02:16:38 PM
I'm trying to say it isn't about us.  It is about others.  The primary reason I'm a safe driver is because I don't want to hurt others.  Same logic applies here.

My parents are older and my father is in and out of nursing homes.  Am I a pussy because I don't want him dead?  It's so simple, too.  Wear a mask.  Social distance as much as possible.  Do it for my dad.
I wear a mask and wash my hands when I'm inside big box retail stores like home depot or walmart or in restaurants and around people. I frequently wash my hands AND use hand sanitizer. When I'm in my car or outside, I'm not wearing the mask. However, I am not going to isolate myself and stayed locked inside. And people and businesses should not be forced to either.

You are getting confused. If your father is in danger, then he should isolate himself. He can do it for himself and keep himself safe. He doesn't need the government to force people to stay inside and shutdown businesses in order to keep him safe. He, his health care providers, and you and your family can take precautions and try to keep him safe. The government can't do that for him. Nor should they even attempt to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 02, 2020, 03:44:02 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on July 02, 2020, 12:44:49 PM
The story might be urban legend, but the idea behind it isn't. A major outbreak in Minnesota was traced back to four bars in which the place was packed and no one was wearing masks. Even the Minnesota Licensed Beverage Association, the state's bar trade group, told their membership to follow the state's rules or else (https://www.mlba.com/states-are-shutting-down-alcohol-sales-again/). Based on their wording in the press release, this isn't a popular stance among bar owners.


But that's completely different. The bar wasn't having patrons throw money into a shared pot, inviting a COVID-positive person to the bar, and the first person to come back with a positive COVID test "wins" the pot...

That's why I suspect that these were parties, but the whole uproar that people are having about the PURPOSE of the parties being to catch COVID is BS. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 02, 2020, 04:07:29 PM
so far Florida is winning todays positive cases contest with a very strong 10,100 cases so far
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 02, 2020, 04:21:04 PM
https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/)

Georgia is doubling on reported cases roughly every week now, not at all good, 3500 yesterday.  Calcd R0 1.3.

I think it's too late but the governor should stop some items as we've discussed.  Hospital use is way up as well, deaths not yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 02, 2020, 04:59:20 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on July 02, 2020, 01:28:46 PM
 Do I stop driving? No. Why? Because I’m not a fucking pussy and I have to live my life.
Wow, this might be the first person to suggest they're being brave for driving.  Bravo!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 02, 2020, 05:01:52 PM
TMC hospital ICUs in Houston are at 102% capacity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 02, 2020, 05:03:09 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 02, 2020, 04:59:20 PM
Wow, this might be the first person to suggest they're being brave for driving.  Bravo!
I believe he was making another distinct point in his entire post.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 02, 2020, 05:21:49 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 02, 2020, 05:01:52 PM
TMC hospital ICUs in Houston are at 102% capacity.
They are making additional beds available

The Governor of Texas just announced masks mandatory for whole state
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 02, 2020, 05:33:01 PM
On the plus side, Houston positives are trending down WoW over the past several days.  They were the first to start climbing, 1.5-2 weeks before Austin and Dallas began climbing, and so perhaps this is a leading indicator for the other metros in the state.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 02, 2020, 05:40:45 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 02, 2020, 05:33:01 PM
On the plus side, Houston positives are trending down WoW over the past several days.  They were the first to start climbing, 1.5-2 weeks before Austin and Dallas began climbing, and so perhaps this is a leading indicator for the other metros in the state.


we sent all the youngsters to Oklahoma
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 02, 2020, 05:59:22 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 02, 2020, 05:21:49 PM
The Governor of Texas just announced masks mandatory for whole state
I realize the problem of closing the barn door after the sheep are already out...

...but wouldn't it have been nice if he did this a week ago?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 02, 2020, 06:10:28 PM
Folks resistant to the wearing of masks are so recalcitrant in many cases I expect wide spread disobedience, and then what?

Businesses might not allow access without a mask.  Some may put it on to gain entrance and then remove it.  What then?  Cause a scene?  Call the police?

It would be nice duh if folks would just use some common sense about this.  But the level of conspiracy lunacy I see on masks on FB is beyond the Pale.  Some think "they" are using this as a ruse to come for our guns.

I can't deal with folks like that.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 02, 2020, 06:16:37 PM
My favorite is the people who abstain from masks because they believe it will result in a dangerous hypoxia scenario...


...and yet none of them have embraced the face shield which has the benefits of masks and doesn't impede airflow at all. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 02, 2020, 06:18:36 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 02, 2020, 05:59:22 PM
I realize the problem of closing the barn door after the sheep are already out...

...but wouldn't it have been nice if he did this a week ago?
dont think this will make a big difference as the major cities in Texas already had a mandatory mask policy
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 02, 2020, 06:20:43 PM
I'm glad surgeons who do delicate multihour long operations don't wear masks and become hypoxic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 02, 2020, 07:00:38 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 02, 2020, 06:10:28 PM
 Some think "they" are using this as a ruse to come for our guns.

I can't deal with folks like that. 
ehhh... no comment
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 02, 2020, 07:04:14 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 02, 2020, 06:16:37 PM
My favorite is the people who abstain from masks because they believe it will result in a dangerous hypoxia scenario...


...and yet none of them have embraced the face shield which has the benefits of masks and doesn't impede airflow at all.
A young woman did this at the post office yesterday.  She was talking to the postal worker, who is behind a big clear shield, and holding her mask out a couple inches from her face.  To me, not a big deal, but not useful, either.

The supervisor asks her to not do it, and the lady goes off on her, yelling, disrespecting her, etc.  After the tirade, she tells the worker she needs to do it so she can breathe.

There's all sorts of stupid among us.  This lady was nuts for going off on a minor request to her minor act.  On the other end, we have people driving around with a mask on.  THAT is how your breathing is affected - prolonged mask use, and if you're alone - absurd mask use. 

The masses, the masses!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 02, 2020, 07:05:21 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 02, 2020, 10:55:25 AM
so, I'm hearing that many more folks are wearing masks

if masks are effective, the curve should begin to flatten again
If.  If?  IF???     :banghead:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 02, 2020, 07:05:59 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 02, 2020, 05:59:22 PM
I realize the problem of closing the barn door after the sheep are already out...

...but wouldn't it have been nice if he did this a week ago?
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 02, 2020, 06:18:36 PM
dont think this will make a big difference as the major cities in Texas already had a mandatory mask policy

Well, Austin and surrounding areas mandatory mask orders went into effect earlier this week, San Antonio was last week, and I have no idea when Houston and Dallas started doing it.

Basically this order was providing political and legal air cover for the major metros who had already put in the ordinance, and it will force the smaller towns that might or might not be doing it, to comply.  Of course, ENFORCING it in those areas, is another matter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 02, 2020, 07:06:49 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on July 01, 2020, 03:25:04 PM
Testify Badge Testify I was just going to post.
"And we told you not every one can suck on the governments tits while posting on messaged boards."
So this is what we think of teachers.  :wtf:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 02, 2020, 07:10:58 PM
Had to run some errands today... Home Depot, homebrew store, and Costco.

Home Depot and Costco were all fully masked everywhere I looked. Homebrew store? Not so much. Patrons appeared to all be masked (as far as I could tell) but none of the staff were. Fing aholes...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 02, 2020, 07:11:13 PM
I like teachers.  It's a tough job.  Thank you for your efforts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 02, 2020, 07:29:25 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/nih-says-rapid-coronavirus-testing-will-allow-americans-to-attend-sporting-events-this-fall.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/nih-says-rapid-coronavirus-testing-will-allow-americans-to-attend-sporting-events-this-fall.html)

Test result in under an hour?

HUh, that could change things if true.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 02, 2020, 07:52:46 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 02, 2020, 07:05:59 PM
Well, Austin and surrounding areas mandatory mask orders went into effect earlier this week, San Antonio was last week, and I have no idea when Houston and Dallas started doing it.

Basically this order was providing political and legal air cover for the major metros who had already put in the ordinance, and it will force the smaller towns that might or might not be doing it, to comply.  Of course, ENFORCING it in those areas, is another matter.

2 weeks ago for Houston
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 02, 2020, 07:56:23 PM
Heh, I read through the governor's executive order, and it makes an exception for drivers in their cars-- alone.  So presumably, people in cars with more than one person, should all be wearing masks.  Telling immediate/nuclear families that they have to mask up while driving in a car together, isn't going to go over well.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 02, 2020, 07:59:01 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 02, 2020, 07:56:23 PM
Heh, I read through the governor's executive order, and it makes an exception for drivers in their cars-- alone.  So presumably, people in cars with more than one person, should all be wearing masks.  Telling immediate/nuclear families that they have to mask up while driving in a car together, isn't going to go over well. 
so you got your two year old in the baby seat do you put a mask on them

I really doubt it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 02, 2020, 08:04:26 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 02, 2020, 07:59:01 PM
so you got your two year old in the baby seat do you put a mask on them

I really doubt it
Kids under 10 are exempted anyway.  But me, my wife, my 12yo, and my 10yo, are not.  At least not technically.

Practically, I'll be surprised if anyone attempts to enforce that.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on July 02, 2020, 11:16:40 PM
The Mrs. and I are on the list for antibody tests. 

The Costcos here in MSP are quite aggressive about enforcing mask usage. This week one person tried to get in without one and the staff were having none of it. Another person tried the take-off play and was swiftly shown out. 

Elsewhere in the general public, mask usage is directly correlated to how close you are to the downtown core. Pretty frequent inside the 494/694 loop, but it drops off fast outside. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 03, 2020, 12:55:07 AM
https://www.scarymommy.com/natural-herd-immunity-not-going-to-solve-covid-19/ (https://www.scarymommy.com/natural-herd-immunity-not-going-to-solve-covid-19/)
(https://www.scarymommy.com/natural-herd-immunity-not-going-to-solve-covid-19/)6 Things You Need To Know About Herd Immunity And COVID-19
by Kristen Mae (https://www.scarymommy.com/author/kristen/) July 1, 2020
SHARE
(https://3a60h1vxk0ezoe7oqzr8fl8l-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/herd-immunity-truth-1.jpg)
elenabs/Getty
“But it’s good that people are getting infected, it means we’re getting closer to herd immunity!”
Among all the junk science (https://www.scarymommy.com/cognitive-dissonance-keeps-peopleadmitting-wrong/) and conspiracy theories (https://www.scarymommy.com/dunning-kruger-effect/) about coronavirus, (https://www.scarymommy.com/people-think-coronavirus-is-gone/) this one is probably the least ridiculous-sounding (https://www.scarymommy.com/fart-mask-covid-19/). I mean, we use vaccines to achieve herd immunity and prevent the spread of contagious diseases like measles and chickenpox. The 1918 flu epidemic ended when the virus finally burned itself out via herd immunity. So why not aim for herd immunity with COVID-19? Why not just let the low-risk people get sick and be done with this thing?
What Herd Immunity Actually Is
The phrase “herd immunity” is thrown around too much when we talk about COVID-19. When epidemiologists talk about herd immunity, especially when it comes to diseases with a high mortality rate like COVID-19, they aren’t usually referring to the natural variety. They’re usually referring to herd immunity via vaccination—when enough people have been vaccinated against an illness that their inability to spread that illness protects those in the population who are unable to be vaccinated (https://apic.org/monthly_alerts/herd-immunity/).
“Herd immunity” refers to a collective protectionism. As many people as possible get vaccinated, thereby protecting individuals unable to vaccinate—like infants or the immunocompromised (https://www.scarymommy.com/medically-vulnerable-people-not-disposable/). The term “herd” is key here as it mirrors the way herds of animals collectively and cooperatively protect the weakest among them. It’s not “Let a whole bunch of people get sick and die so the virus finally has nowhere else to go, yay, we won!”
The Death Toll Of Herd Immunity For COVID-19
Speaking of death, let’s say for a moment we were to deliberately aim for natural herd immunity against COVID-19. Let’s do that math and see what it would take.
Epidemiologists estimate that herd immunity for COVID-19 would require about 70% of the population (https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808) to have contracted the virus and be immune.
70% of the population of the United States is 229 million.
As of this writing, 2.6 million Americans have been confirmed to have been infected with COVID-19. However, experts now say, based on serology testing (antibody testing), that the infected number is likely ten times higher than that (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-cases/coronavirus-may-have-infected-10-times-more-americans-than-reported-cdc-says-idUSKBN23W2PU). It’s easy to see the logic in this since we know many mild or asymptomatic cases would not be confirmed via a COVID-19 test, because why would someone seek a test if they weren’t symptomatic? Also, we were short on tests (https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/05/theres-only-one-way-out-of-this-mess/611431/) for several months, so people couldn’t get tested.
So, 2.6 million confirmed, but an estimated 26 million-ish people actually infected. Of those 26 million, so far 126,000 have died (we won’t factor in that of current active cases, many still have yet to die).
Remember, 229 million people must get infected with COVID-19 in order to reach herd immunity. We’re 203 million short—we need nearly eight times this amount. And, based on the current death rate of 126,000 for every 26 million cases of COVID-19, that means that in order to reach herd immunity, we could expect to see 982,000 deaths.
I don’t know about you, but I am not okay with losing a million Americans to COVID-19.
If Herd Immunity Even Works At All
[img width=614.844 height=369.418 alt=Natural Herd Immunity Is Not Going To Solve Our COVID-19 Problem]https://3a60h1vxk0ezoe7oqzr8fl8l-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/herd-immunity-truth-extra-1.jpg[/img][/color][/size]
Rob Curran/Unsplash
Scary math scenarios aside, it’s important to note that immunity may not function in COVID-19 as it does with other viruses. Although other coronaviruses, like SARS and MERS, generate antibodies that last for at least a year, in at least one study (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0965-6), COVID-19 antibodies were shown to decrease after only a couple of months. So, until we more fully understand whether or not antibodies following an infection truly provide protection from reinfection, natural herd immunity is not something we should aspire to.
Infection Doesn’t Stop Once We Reach Our Magic “Herd Immunity Number”
The other thing many people don’t realize when they talk about herd immunity is that when we hit this number—this magic 70%—infections don’t simply stop. The final percentage of people infected could end up being as high as 90% (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11538-012-9749-6). Given the death tolls counted above, this is not a match we want to light.
Unlike Vaccine-Derived Herd Immunity, Natural Herd Immunity Does Not Protect The Most Vulnerable
When I discussed herd immunity above, I talked about how the immunized “herd” is meant to act as a protective layer to prevent transmission to vulnerable community members who cannot be vaccinated. With COVID-19, we’ve been recommending that high-risk individuals, such as those over 65, self-isolate to avoid exposure. Say they actually do this—remain inside while the greater population intentionally gets itself sick to achieve herd immunity. Once a population reaches herd immunity, everyone begins to socialize like before. All it would take is one single infected individual in a retirement community or nursing home to get sick to cause a devastating outbreak within that community (https://theconversation.com/herd-immunity-wont-solve-our-covid-19-problem-139724). Because, within the community itself, there is no herd protection. They didn’t participate in the drive to natural herd immunity, because they couldn’t. The only way to offer true herd immunity, even within high-risk populations, is with a vaccine.
If Herd Immunity Isn’t The Answer, What Is?
The answer is to do whatever we can to slow the spread of this virus. That means social distancing, avoiding crowds, and wearing a mask when you must go out. It means using common sense (https://www.scarymommy.com/dealing-with-covid-19-common-sense-situation/). It means listening to experts—actual experts who have the agreement of their peers who are also experts and not some fringe radical who was excommunicated from the scientific community and made a YouTube video. It means giving a shit about your fellow humans. It means not acting like an entitled asshole. It means doing all of these things, and it means doing these things until the thousands of scientists working on this thing around the clock come up with either a vaccine or an effective treatment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 03, 2020, 01:09:49 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on July 02, 2020, 01:28:46 PM
That’s life. There’s no way to be 100% safe in life period. Have to go on living. Can’t hide inside like a pansy and be scared of life.

I do a shit ton of driving. I’ve probably got a way better shot of being killed in a car accident than this COVID bullshit. Especially in South Florida. Have you seen the roads there? 3-4-5 Horrific accidents every single hr of every single day here. It’s insane. Do I stop driving? No. Why? Because I’m not a fucking pussy and I have to live my life.
Does wearing a mask and social-distancing = being a fucking pussy?

EDIT: I've seen since I posted this that you wear a mask.  So what are fucking pussies doing that pisses you off?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 03, 2020, 10:46:34 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 03, 2020, 12:55:07 AM
It means listening to experts—actual experts who have the agreement of their peers who are also experts and not some fringe radical who was excommunicated from the scientific community and made a YouTube video. 

where are these experts hiding and how do we find them and educate the masses?

hell, how can we get the real experts to educate our leaders?

seems impossible with our group of leaders and media
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 03, 2020, 11:06:33 AM
The experts seem pretty consistent and common sensical to me.  I know scientists are not always adept at dealing with reporters who are idiots.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 03, 2020, 12:05:54 PM
Some good news on the vaccine front:

Oxford Vaccine gives off long term immunity (https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/26293/20200701/oxford-expert-claims-covid-19-vaccine-gives-long-term-immunity.htm)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on July 03, 2020, 12:09:53 PM
Well, that was fast. Doc ordered the blood draw at 4:00 yesterday afternoon, and a vial of my blood was in the system by 9:30 this morning. Results in 5-7 business days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 03, 2020, 12:25:42 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on July 03, 2020, 12:09:53 PM
Well, that was fast. Doc ordered the blood draw at 4:00 yesterday afternoon, and a vial of my blood was in the system by 9:30 this morning. Results in 5-7 business days.
do you think you already had the virus
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 03, 2020, 12:46:33 PM
Woke up in the middle of the night with severe chills. No fever, wife gave me Tylenol which helped. So far this morning I haven't developed a fever, but the Tylenol is probably just reaching the point where it'll wear off.

Hoping it was just too much beer. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 03, 2020, 12:52:38 PM
Tylenol is not a good choice if you consume a lot of alcohol, seriously.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 03, 2020, 12:59:00 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 03, 2020, 12:52:38 PM
Tylenol is not a good choice if you consume a lot of alcohol, seriously.
Normally I don't, but apparently if it is COVID, ibuprofen is bad. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on July 03, 2020, 02:18:15 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 03, 2020, 12:25:42 PM
do you think you already had the virus
My wife might have.  We spent the last two weeks of 2019 gallivanting around Italy. Shortly thereafter she was knocked down for almost two weeks with some kind of respiratory illness that wasn't bronchitis. And if she had it, I was certainly exposed to it. Given that COVID-19 was going around Italy a lot earlier than originally thought, we thought it a good idea to di the antibody tests. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 03, 2020, 02:20:38 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 03, 2020, 12:59:00 PM
Normally I don't, but apparently if it is COVID, ibuprofen is bad.
I think that concern was reversed, been a while.

https://www.managedhealthcareexecutive.com/view/final-word-ibuprofen-and-covid-19-risk (https://www.managedhealthcareexecutive.com/view/final-word-ibuprofen-and-covid-19-risk)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 03, 2020, 02:30:24 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on July 03, 2020, 02:18:15 PM
My wife might have.  We spent the last two weeks of 2019 gallivanting around Italy. Shortly thereafter she was knocked down for almost two weeks with some kind of respiratory illness that wasn't bronchitis. And if she had it, I was certainly exposed to it. Given that COVID-19 was going around Italy a lot earlier than originally thought, we thought it a good idea to di the antibody tests.
well I guess we hope she did have it for immune purposes
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 03, 2020, 02:37:40 PM
I was down with something in France in February, but it seemed like bronchitis, with congestion.  It seems odd very to somehow hope it was COVID.

But there it is.  May have been a bad cold with a lot of coughing.  I blew my nose a LOT.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 03, 2020, 02:45:18 PM
I think it was too much beer, not enough food yesterday. Got a little food and coffee in my system and feeling better. But I've never woken up with chills like that from beer before... And knowing that one of my wife's doctors at her office and her husband are both symptomatic and awaiting their test results freaked me out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 03, 2020, 02:46:48 PM
Is there such a thing as "too much beer"?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 03, 2020, 03:08:08 PM
When I'd basically eaten nothing all day? Yep. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 03, 2020, 05:18:31 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 03, 2020, 03:08:08 PM
When I'd basically eaten nothing all day? Yep.
Glad you feel better bwarbiany
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on July 03, 2020, 05:29:53 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 03, 2020, 02:46:48 PM
Is there such a thing as "too much beer"?
If you haven't eaten anything all day, yes. 

The first time I went to a football game in Madison, upon arrival at my lodgings for the weekend I partook in the keg prior to eating supper. I went from sober to trashed in about 10 minutes. Not good. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 03, 2020, 05:36:38 PM
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/hydroxychloroquine-given-early-helped-coronavirus-patients-study-finds-11593729664

:sign0151:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 03, 2020, 09:57:01 PM
Hmmm. Like 1/4th of Texas counties have yet to report. They’ve missed the deadline.  Weird. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 03, 2020, 10:10:15 PM
It takes time to count that high.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 03, 2020, 10:14:40 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 03, 2020, 03:08:08 PM
When I'd basically eaten nothing all day? Yep.
I had a stick of beef jerky today on the golf course, ate an apple on the way there

plenty of beer from 10am to 8pm
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 03, 2020, 11:11:17 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 03, 2020, 10:14:40 PM
I had a stick of beef jerky today on the golf course, ate an apple on the way there

plenty of beer from 10am to 8pm
I think Im allergic to beer

after 10 or so I start to feel light headed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 04, 2020, 12:19:42 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 03, 2020, 10:14:40 PM
I had a stick of beef jerky today on the golf course, ate an apple on the way there

plenty of beer from 10am to 8pm
I think the beer you drink can be used to hydrate... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 04, 2020, 12:39:31 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 03, 2020, 10:10:15 PM
It takes time to count that high.
July 4th holiday apparently. A lot of counties don’t report on Sunday, either. I would guess Monday will see a new record for TX due to the backlog. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 04, 2020, 02:32:25 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/V9mp1vJ.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 04, 2020, 12:48:51 PM
https://www.ajc.com/sports/baseball/freddie-freeman-among-four-braves-test-positive-for-covid/oIeYtKsUjXzTUYaEvxaZmK/ (https://www.ajc.com/sports/baseball/freddie-freeman-among-four-braves-test-positive-for-covid/oIeYtKsUjXzTUYaEvxaZmK/)

Four Braves test positive.

~???
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 04, 2020, 08:44:02 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 04, 2020, 12:19:42 AM
I think the beer you drink can be used to hydrate...
95% water

only 5% alcohol 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 04, 2020, 08:44:42 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 03, 2020, 11:11:17 PM
I think Im allergic to beer

after 10 or so I start to feel light headed
ya gotta power through that feeling
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 05, 2020, 02:07:51 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 02, 2020, 11:57:37 AM
I wonder how soon one of us here contracts it.  I'm not wishing that on anyone obviously, and I'd guess we are pretty careful relatively.
I already had it. The antibodies in me said so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 05, 2020, 02:58:16 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 05, 2020, 02:07:51 PM
I already had it. The antibodies in me said so.
look at 847 doing the virus thing

what about anyone else in your family
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 05, 2020, 03:12:43 PM
My wife stayed clear of me during that period - she was still going to the office every day and I slept in the recliner. Also wore a mask (CPAP) most of the time. Kinda nice to have a ventilator on hand.

3 days were really shitty, as I'm prone to get bronchial crap every year. But, I never went to the doctor/ER.

She does not have antibodies, so she has not had it.

I have 2 other friends I know had it. One was completely asymptomatic, and the other was minor.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 05, 2020, 03:44:47 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 05, 2020, 03:12:43 PM
My wife stayed clear of me during that period - she was still going to the office every day and I slept in the recliner. Also wore a mask (CPAP) most of the time. Kinda nice to have a ventilator on hand.

3 days were really shitty, as I'm prone to get bronchial crap every year. But, I never went to the doctor/ER.

She does not have antibodies, so she has not had it.

I have 2 other friends I know had it. One was completely asymptomatic, and the other was minor.
so you could be our on the spot reporter take the antibody test again in 6 months and see if you still have them

that would be interesting
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 05, 2020, 06:27:44 PM
I have such a low level, I'm already convinced that this doesn't last long and that I could get it again.

I did read a couple of journals today, which suspect that the virus is mutating and becoming weaker. That's good news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 05, 2020, 06:45:02 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 05, 2020, 06:27:44 PM
I have such a low level, I'm already convinced that this doesn't last long and that I could get it again.

I did read a couple of journals today, which suspect that the virus is mutating and becoming weaker. That's good news.
I mentioned that as a possibility as to one reason deaths are so low relative to the latest surge and everybody said that just couldnt be
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 05, 2020, 06:50:30 PM
It could be weakening, that certainly is a possibility.  It also could be infecting mostly younger folks who tolerate it better.  Or both.

I wonder if the less symptomatic infections generate a different level of antibodies.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 05, 2020, 07:39:40 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 05, 2020, 06:45:02 PM
I mentioned that as a possibility as to one reason deaths are so low relative to the latest surge and everybody said that just couldnt be
Shhhh.

You don't want to be ostracized, do you?

It wouldn't fit the MSM narrative of fear mongering.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 05, 2020, 09:48:35 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 05, 2020, 06:45:02 PM
I mentioned that as a possibility as to one reason deaths are so low relative to the latest surge and everybody said that just couldnt be
No, we said there wasn't sufficient evidence to justify the assertion.

Big difference. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on July 05, 2020, 10:00:03 PM
Coronavirus can suck a fat dick. I wish the Chinese government would be punished for their crime against humanity in unleashing this thing on the world, but I’m afraid the West doesn’t have the nutsack to man up and put the screws to China.

If the EU and the US came together to slap sanctions on China and forced EU/US multinationals to dissolve their CCP state backed Chinese joint venture partnerships and forced all manufacturing and production of EU/US owned companies to move out of China, the CCP would probably collapse overnight. The entire reason China exists is to make the West it’s cheap plastic crap and electronic gadgets. Let’s move all the Foxconn factories and everything else over to Vietnam, Laos, and Thailand and call it a day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 05, 2020, 10:07:58 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 05, 2020, 09:48:35 PM
No, we said there wasn't sufficient evidence to justify the assertion.

Big difference.
well hell as far as the virus is concerned there aint enough evidence to justify any assertion made

Fauci proves that every day
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 05, 2020, 10:47:28 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on July 05, 2020, 10:00:03 PM
Coronavirus can suck a fat dick. I wish the Chinese government would be punished for their crime against humanity in unleashing this thing on the world, but I’m afraid the West doesn’t have the nutsack to man up and put the screws to China.

If the EU and the US came together to slap sanctions on China and forced EU/US multinationals to dissolve their CCP state backed Chinese joint venture partnerships and forced all manufacturing and production of EU/US owned companies to move out of China, the CCP would probably collapse overnight. The entire reason China exists is to make the West it’s cheap plastic crap and electronic gadgets. Let’s move all the Foxconn factories and everything else over to Vietnam, Laos, and Thailand and call it a day.
The irony of the second part is that if you actually asked people to pay what it might cost to do so, chances are they'd balk. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 05, 2020, 10:48:19 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 05, 2020, 10:07:58 PM
well hell as far as the virus is concerned there aint enough evidence to justify any assertion made

Fauci proves that every day
And thus, we grab things that make us feel most content and right and hold them up, trumpeting our own beliefs. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 05, 2020, 10:49:15 PM
I don't understand the antipathy for Fauci and Birx, I really don't.  I think they are dealing as best the can with a bad hand.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 05, 2020, 11:06:15 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 05, 2020, 10:07:58 PM
well hell as far as the virus is concerned there aint enough evidence to justify any assertion made

Then why do you keep making assertions?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 05, 2020, 11:09:54 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on July 05, 2020, 10:48:19 PM
And thus, we grab things that make us feel most content and right and hold them up, trumpeting our own beliefs.
I wouldnt call it trumpeting

Id say some of these are educated assumptions based on daily observations

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 05, 2020, 11:14:21 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 05, 2020, 11:06:15 PM
Then why do you keep making assertions?
oh the orange man cometh

I make assertions cause thats my job

but I am getting tired of this crap so I think Im going to ask for divine intervention

I try not to bother the Big Guy unless its really important but this is getting out of hand

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 05, 2020, 11:18:18 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 05, 2020, 10:49:15 PM
I don't understand the antipathy for Fauci and Birx, I really don't.  I think they are dealing as best the can with a bad hand.


Then they need to avoid making stupid statements like we could go to 100,000 positive cases a day

its because folks do listen to them that they should think about the weight of their words before they speak
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 05, 2020, 11:24:48 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 05, 2020, 11:09:54 PM
I wouldnt call it trumpeting

Id say some of these are educated assumptions based on daily observations


I guess we have different definitions of the word educated...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 05, 2020, 11:26:47 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 05, 2020, 11:18:18 PM
Then they need to avoid making stupid statements like we could go to 100,000 positive cases a day
Did the baby Jesus tell you different?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 05, 2020, 11:27:39 PM
I don't view that as a stupid statement, at all.  It a scientific admission of a possibility, and it's correct that it COULD happen

Fauci speaks like a scientist, in my opinion, and the media often distort what he says.

I personally have zero issue with what either have tried to impart to us beyond the fact they aren't used to dealing with the media.

If we don't hit 100,000 positives a day, I'll be pleasantly surprised.  It clearly is a possibility, and maybe even a probability.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 05, 2020, 11:42:08 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 05, 2020, 11:27:39 PM
I don't view that as a stupid statement, at all.  It a scientific admission of a possibility, and it's correct that it COULD happen

Fauci speaks like a scientist, in my opinion, and the media often distort what he says.

I personally have zero issue with what either have tried to impart to us beyond the fact they aren't used to dealing with the media.

If we don't hit 100,000 positives a day, I'll be pleasantly surprised.  It clearly is a possibility, and maybe even a probability.
Im sorry you feel that way you have pegged the worry scale

there is no way we will go to 100,000 cases a day and he should be ashamed for even suggesting it

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 05, 2020, 11:43:33 PM
And you've been correct how many times, of anything related to this?

More bald-ass assertions.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 05, 2020, 11:44:35 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 05, 2020, 11:26:47 PM
Did the baby Jesus tell you different?
nope I go right to the Big Guy when I want to have a conversation

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 05, 2020, 11:45:16 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 05, 2020, 11:43:33 PM
And you've been correct how many times, of anything related to this?

More bald-ass assertions. 
name one thing Ive asserted that has been wrong
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 05, 2020, 11:50:34 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 05, 2020, 11:44:35 PM
nope I go right to the Big Guy when I want to have a conversation


Sounds like a monologue to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 05, 2020, 11:55:59 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 05, 2020, 11:50:34 PM
Sounds like a monologue to me.
why do you always have to attack people personally orangie

your momma should have taught you better then that

anyway Im still waiting for you to tell me when any of my virus assertions has been proven wrong

and leave the snarky remarks about my faith out of it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 06, 2020, 12:00:45 AM
Well to be honest, the belief in a god is an assertion...but I don't want to be snarky.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 06, 2020, 12:04:50 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 05, 2020, 11:42:08 PM
Im sorry you feel that way you have pegged the worry scale

there is no way we will go to 100,000 cases a day and he should be ashamed for even suggesting it


Realistically we are already there. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 06, 2020, 12:09:36 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 05, 2020, 06:27:44 PM
I have such a low level, I'm already convinced that this doesn't last long and that I could get it again.

I did read a couple of journals today, which suspect that the virus is mutating and becoming weaker. That's good news.
Link for the lazy?  I have read The opposite. This virus doesn’t mutate very fast.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 06, 2020, 12:12:04 AM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 06, 2020, 12:04:50 AM
Realistically we are already there.
That has merit

I am not bothered by all the fantom cases that go undetected

just the ones that might result in hospitalization and/or death

I dont think Fauci was referring to undetected cases in his statement

if he was then he needs to so state
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 06, 2020, 12:12:49 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 05, 2020, 10:07:58 PM
well hell as far as the virus is concerned there aint enough evidence to justify any assertion made

Fauci proves that every day
You made the assertion it was getting weaker. There is no evidence, that I'm aware of, that any meaningful mutations have occurred.

Yet you act confident but act as if anyone with a "wait and see " approach is denying that your completely unfounded assertions are possible. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 06, 2020, 12:15:21 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 06, 2020, 12:00:45 AM
Well to be honest, the belief in a god is an assertion...but I don't want to be snarky.
still waiting





Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 06, 2020, 12:19:28 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 06, 2020, 12:12:49 AM
You made the assertion it was getting weaker. There is no evidence, that I'm aware of, that any meaningful mutations have occurred.

Yet you act confident but act as if anyone with a "wait and see " approach is denying that your completely unfounded assertions are possible.
There is evidence from the standpoint of a very low death count


I did not say it was definite only a good possibility 





Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 06, 2020, 12:23:30 AM
Yes, always hedging, so as to not be held accountable by anything you post.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 06, 2020, 12:26:53 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 06, 2020, 12:23:30 AM
Yes, always hedging, so as to not be held accountable by anything you post.
How did I hedge

still waiting

youre not one of those guys thats all blow and no go are ya

still waiting
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 06, 2020, 01:39:13 AM
I cited one and bwarb cited one, both recent.  If you're just going to ignore our posts, stop goading me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 06, 2020, 02:15:40 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 06, 2020, 01:39:13 AM
I cited one and bwarb cited one, both recent.  If you're just going to ignore our posts, stop goading me.
you did?


I missed it

what was it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 06, 2020, 06:47:11 AM
I am not even going to pretend to have “ the answers here. 

Being in Florida as the number of cases rises exponentially absolutely scares me and absolutely concerns me. 

Every where I go- people are in masks- but the spread has largely avoided where I am.  How long can that hold true?

I am flying out of Palm Beach to Detroit Friday to go back to Michigan for an out door wedding/ and to see my two daughters who I have not seen since Feb. 

All along my instincts have said that the initial goal of not overwhelming the hospitals was the right thing- and finding the balance between the economic catastrophe and the medical catastrophe was the difficult but correct high wire act.  Many said it is just a matter of time before a high % of us will get it- and the best thing we could do was protect those most susceptible. 

So, as we sit here today the fact that so many new cases are younger people who seem to be handling it better, and with few exceptions the medical system is not overwhelmed - that part gives me hope bordering on optimism. And while many businesses around me have closed forever ( my cleaners and hair cutting place for example) most others are hanging in there and some are even doing well.

Other than being as vigilant as I can, I don’t know what if anything I would change. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 06, 2020, 07:12:58 AM
This is in Michigan but a scene that could have been anywhere USA this weekend     Ugghh(https://i.imgur.com/lV6vzI8.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 06, 2020, 08:58:31 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/29/cdc-says-us-has-way-too-much-virus-to-control-pandemic-as-cases-surge-across-country.html?recirc=taboolainternal (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/29/cdc-says-us-has-way-too-much-virus-to-control-pandemic-as-cases-surge-across-country.html?recirc=taboolainternal)

(https://i.imgur.com/aPzwKiP.png)

The earlier buzzword was "mitigation".  I think now it's more "survival if possible".
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 06, 2020, 09:04:51 AM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 06, 2020, 12:09:36 AM
Link for the lazy?  I have read The opposite. This virus doesn’t mutate very fast.
Hard to link and actual paper copy, and I don't remember their titles.

One of my dock mates is an MD, one is a PA and two are nurse practitioners.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 06, 2020, 09:10:13 AM
I have seen papers saying it has mutated, and others claiming it isn't mutating.  I've seen work that hydroxychloroquine works, and others saying it doesn't.

I liken this to the three blind men describing an elephant.

This is another example where science in the public domain often gets misunderstood and overly hyped and mischaracterized by the media and politicians.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 06, 2020, 09:17:04 AM
It's good to sift and winnow. It's also good to know people who know something.

The level of seriousness in cases is coming down. First hand knowledge.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 06, 2020, 09:43:17 AM
Yeah, we THINK because it is the younger folks getting it of course.  It still can be a difficult sickness.

Anyway, the horse has left the barn.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 06, 2020, 10:05:23 AM
The dock Doc put the average age in his cases at 29. He blames the protests and the bars being open.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 06, 2020, 10:47:57 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 06, 2020, 09:17:04 AM
It's good to sift and winnow. It's also good to know people who know something.

The level of seriousness in cases is coming down. First hand knowledge.
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 06, 2020, 09:43:17 AM
Yeah, we THINK because it is the younger folks getting it of course.  It still can be a difficult sickness.

Anyway, the horse has left the barn.
I also think that with the much higher knowledge about COVID-19 symptoms, and the much better test availability, we're probably catching a lot of cases sooner, before they've developed into serious complications. 

In addition, a lot of tests are due to contact tracing, which will catch mild or asymptomatic cases that would never have resulted in a test before, so it looks like the severity comes down as a product of increased numbers. 

That said, in many of the areas that are seeing spiking case numbers, we're starting to see the results in hospitalizations and ICU usage. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 06, 2020, 10:52:09 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 06, 2020, 12:19:28 AM
There is evidence from the standpoint of a very low death count

I did not say it was definite only a good possibility
This is what you said:


Quote
I mentioned that as a possibility as to one reason deaths are so low relative to the latest surge and everybody said that just couldnt be


Nobody said "that couldn't be", which is where this issue is coming from. You are misrepresenting our position. 

Maybe that was just intended as hyperbole, but as one of the people who basically is waiting for evidence, i.e. researchers sequencing the genome of the virus as it spreads and can detect mutation, I take umbrage to the idea that I've said "that just couldn't be". I've said no such thing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 06, 2020, 11:00:46 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 06, 2020, 10:52:09 AM
This is what you said:



Nobody said "that couldn't be", which is where this issue is coming from. You are misrepresenting our position.

Maybe that was just intended as hyperbole, but as one of the people who basically is waiting for evidence, i.e. researchers sequencing the genome of the virus as it spreads and can detect mutation, I take umbrage to the idea that I've said "that just couldn't be". I've said no such thing.
ok you did it

the horse is dead already
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 06, 2020, 11:06:19 AM
Folks often tinge their proclamations with qualifiers like may, could, might, possible, etc.  I know I do, usually....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 06, 2020, 11:18:49 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 06, 2020, 10:47:57 AM
I also think that with the much higher knowledge about COVID-19 symptoms, and the much better test availability, we're probably catching a lot of cases sooner, before they've developed into serious complications.

In addition, a lot of tests are due to contact tracing, which will catch mild or asymptomatic cases that would never have resulted in a test before, so it looks like the severity comes down as a product of increased numbers.

That said, in many of the areas that are seeing spiking case numbers, we're starting to see the results in hospitalizations and ICU usage.
Exactly. The folks who attended the protests and the folks who crowded beaches and the folks who hung out in bars and the folks who attended massive private parties are getting tested. It's a no-brainer that we are seeing a spike, and it's not shocking to see the demographics on who is positive.

I haven't looked at too many states, but Florida's hospitals are not overwhelmed, save for a few scattered around the state.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 06, 2020, 02:51:43 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 21, 2020, 07:47:21 PM
Wrong

Wrong

Wrong

Wrong
Badge called 4 things:  No football, no NBA playoffs, no NHL playoffs, and no Baseball.

might make it 4/4.  

We now know this was Badge's fault.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 06, 2020, 04:08:17 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 10, 2020, 12:35:16 PM
I wouldnt be at all surprised to see the US death rate from all causes to fall by 10%
This never came to pass.  The opposite is still occurring.

A lot of it is probably from Coronavirus, some maybe from fear of going to the hospital, etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 06, 2020, 04:08:39 PM
Sure, why not.

Anyway...

https://www.businessinsider.com/who-changes-timeline-first-coronavirus-report-from-internet-china-2020-7 (https://www.businessinsider.com/who-changes-timeline-first-coronavirus-report-from-internet-china-2020-7)

Tick-tock.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 06, 2020, 10:30:51 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 06, 2020, 04:08:39 PM
Sure, why not.

Anyway...

https://www.businessinsider.com/who-changes-timeline-first-coronavirus-report-from-internet-china-2020-7 (https://www.businessinsider.com/who-changes-timeline-first-coronavirus-report-from-internet-china-2020-7)

Tick-tock.

There you go again with facts.    But...but...but...     tick tick tock tock 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on July 07, 2020, 09:22:42 AM
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-texas-hospitals-overwhelmed-acb24f5a-428f-469a-8de2-4ffc828dbe44.html (https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-texas-hospitals-overwhelmed-acb24f5a-428f-469a-8de2-4ffc828dbe44.html)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 07, 2020, 09:29:58 AM
Austin Mayor Steve Adler told the Austin American-Statesman (https://link.axios.com/click/20824495.62295/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuc3RhdGVzbWFuLmNvbS9uZXdzLzIwMjAwNzA1L2ljdXMtY291bGQtYmUtb3ZlcnJ1bi1pbi0xMC1kYXlzLWFtaWQtY29yb25hdmlydXMtc3Bpa2UtYXVzdGluLW1heW9yLXNheXM_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1TTkQmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1GYWNlYm9vayZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249c3RhdGVzbWFuJnN0cmVhbT10b3A/5d8a19e2fbd297461c3ce0b1Bc31252d9) yesterday that the city's hospitals could be overwhelmed in the "next 10 days to two weeks."


COULD BE over whelmed in 10+ days, not already overwhelmed.  Probably is likely to happen.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 07, 2020, 09:58:02 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/07/herd-immunity-questioned-after-spanish-coronavirus-antibody-study.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/07/herd-immunity-questioned-after-spanish-coronavirus-antibody-study.html)

Not good news from the Lancet, peer reviewed study.  Not good at all.

Still a confusing picture.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 07, 2020, 10:02:24 AM
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronavirus/os-ne-coronavirus-hospitalization-update-20200707-rvk6g2zibnawrh57ovtef3d4hy-story.html (https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronavirus/os-ne-coronavirus-hospitalization-update-20200707-rvk6g2zibnawrh57ovtef3d4hy-story.html)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 07, 2020, 10:20:57 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/07/states-in-fiscal-crisis-cuts-to-basic-services-loom-due-to-pandemic.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/07/states-in-fiscal-crisis-cuts-to-basic-services-loom-due-to-pandemic.html)

Pretty obvious that states and cities are in deep financial trouble.

Only the Federals can borrow, for the most part.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 07, 2020, 10:35:41 AM
One state seems to stand out on this graphic as being ILL.  Has anyone else noticed this or been aware of the situation???

(https://i.imgur.com/4sIr2WX.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 07, 2020, 10:38:19 AM
I hate being colorblind. I swear Aa2 and A1 are the exact same color. And might have a 25% chance differentiating Aaa from A3, which is a HUGE difference in creditworthiness. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 07, 2020, 10:38:33 AM
Ummm, yeah. Why do you think I'm out of here?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 07, 2020, 10:39:25 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 07, 2020, 10:38:33 AM
Ummm, yeah. Why do you think I'm out of here?
When did you tell us this startling piece of information?  I don't recollect any discussion on it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 07, 2020, 10:45:51 AM
C'mon. I've been saying for years that Illinois is broken. And now a progressive tax is on the ballot for November. 

Toodles.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 07, 2020, 10:49:40 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 07, 2020, 09:58:02 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/07/herd-immunity-questioned-after-spanish-coronavirus-antibody-study.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/07/herd-immunity-questioned-after-spanish-coronavirus-antibody-study.html)

Not good news from the Lancet, peer reviewed study.  Not good at all.

Still a confusing picture.
Here is my 2 cents worth

if antibodies dont last very long then why arent we hearing of many cases of reinfections

I mean the test in Spain is supposed to reflect that we cant achieve herd immunity cause the antibodies dont protect
a person long enough

if thats the case then it looks like we would have a boat load of reinfections but if we are its not been reported

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 07, 2020, 10:54:03 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 07, 2020, 10:49:40 AM
Here is my 2 cents worth

if antibodies dont last very long then why arent we hereing of many cases of reinfections

I mean the test in Spain is supposed to reflect that we cant achieve herd immunity cause the antibodies dont protect
a person long enough

if thats the case then it looks like we would have a boat load of reinfections but if we are its not been reported
I think everyone is focusing on the antibodies, and not many are focusing on T Cells. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 07, 2020, 10:58:53 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 07, 2020, 10:54:03 AM
I think everyone is focusing on the antibodies, and not many are focusing on T Cells.
you mean this?


https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on July 07, 2020, 11:02:57 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 07, 2020, 10:45:51 AM
C'mon. I've been saying for years that Illinois is broken. And now a progressive tax is on the ballot for November.

Toodles.


You have...  Also, this isn't new news.  The state has had financial trouble since before BO took office.  Compounding the problem is corruption at all levels.  How many elected officials have gone to jail over the last 20 years?  Several..    Ill is a state that epitomizes the concept that elected officials only care about the next election, not governing.  So much bureaucracy that adds little value just to appease voters.  And nobody wants to deal with the pension issues... they just keep kicking the can.   All of this... you clearly know better than all of us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 07, 2020, 11:05:02 AM
https://teachmephysiology.com/immune-system/cells-immune-system/t-cells/ (https://teachmephysiology.com/immune-system/cells-immune-system/t-cells/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 07, 2020, 11:57:26 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 07, 2020, 11:05:02 AM
https://teachmephysiology.com/immune-system/cells-immune-system/t-cells/ (https://teachmephysiology.com/immune-system/cells-immune-system/t-cells/)
very interesting
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 07, 2020, 12:11:08 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 07, 2020, 10:58:53 AM
you mean this?


https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity)
Yes. That exactly.

Every news story about waning antibodies results in doom & gloom. Yet antibodies are only one piece of the immunity puzzle.

I've read that people that recovered from SARS in 2003 and MERS later have been tested and although they have no antibodies, they still show evidence of the T cells that were generated by those diseases. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 07, 2020, 12:12:50 PM
How come we haven't heard more about this? Are these cells transferable?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 07, 2020, 12:36:36 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 07, 2020, 12:12:50 PM
How come we haven't heard more about this? Are these cells transferable?
I think the picture gets "too technical" for most readers, and nearly all reporters, in a hurry, so they latch on to whatever is salient and headline grabbing.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 07, 2020, 12:44:02 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 07, 2020, 12:12:50 PM
How come we haven't heard more about this?
The Facebook epidemiology lessons on T cells are a 200-level course. Most won't get there until next semester. 



Quote
Are these cells transferable?


Some quick wikiresearch suggests there are therapeutic ways to transfer T cells, but they don't look simple by any stretch. I wouldn't hold out hope that this is a good solution for COVID-19.

The big advantage of T-cells is that if they confer long-term immunity, exposure to COVID-19 in a vaccine might teach the body to produce the right type of T-cells on its own, even after antibodies wane. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 07, 2020, 12:48:17 PM
T-cells may also be involved in that bad cytokine explosion that seems to impact some younger patients hard.  I wonder if their T cells have a "memory" of a kind of cold virus from on back, and can't quite figure the new one out and go crazy attacking cells they shouldn't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 07, 2020, 12:53:19 PM
I also wonder if the cross T cell response has impacted why a lot of people have has little to no symptoms
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 07, 2020, 12:54:54 PM
So of the states that have been tracking large increases in cases (FL/GA/TX/AZ/CA), we're starting to see the curve in deaths in FL/TX/AZ. No change to date that I can detect in CA. GA continues to decline in death rate. 

Not sure whether CA/GA are the outlier here or FL/TX/AZ are the outlier. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 07, 2020, 12:56:39 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 07, 2020, 12:44:02 PM
The Facebook epidemiology lessons on T cells are a 200-level course. Most won't get there until next semester.




Some quick wikiresearch suggests there are therapeutic ways to transfer T cells, but they don't look simple by any stretch. I wouldn't hold out hope that this is a good solution for COVID-19.

The big advantage of T-cells is that if they confer long-term immunity, exposure to COVID-19 in a vaccine might teach the body to produce the right type of T-cells on its own, even after antibodies wane.
I'm going to ask the dock Doc about it this coming weekend. He seems to be pretty on top of this thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 07, 2020, 12:59:21 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 07, 2020, 12:54:54 PM
So of the states that have been tracking large increases in cases (FL/GA/TX/AZ/CA), we're starting to see the curve in deaths in FL/TX/AZ. No change to date that I can detect in CA. GA continues to decline in death rate.

Not sure whether CA/GA are the outlier here or FL/TX/AZ are the outlier.
Deaths look like they are trending down in Florida. The peak was a couple of weeks ago. What source are you looking at?


https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

 (https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 07, 2020, 01:03:09 PM
I made what I thought was an innocent post on FB comparing Georgia and Sweden.  They have close to the same population, and of course Sweden went their own way, and Georgia reopened early so I was pondering what that might mean by looking at Sweden.

I got blasted by several other folks, mostly because the death rate in Georgia was, and is, quite a bit lower than that in Sweden.  Sweden of course MUST have a far superior medical system, right?  I was "informed" that I should not compare the two.

It was quite entertaining.  One person claimed that GA was fudging the numbers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 07, 2020, 01:06:20 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 07, 2020, 12:59:21 PM
Deaths look like they are trending down in Florida. The peak was a couple of weeks ago. What source are you looking at?


https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

 (https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

 (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/)7-day moving average hit a low of 30 on June 18. Since then, it's risen to 48.

They are reporting 63 today, which isn't yet factored into the 7-day MA, but will replace the Jun 30 number which was 58. So after today their 7-day MA will go up slightly further. 

BTW your link says this in the far lower right corner:

Quote
Death data often has significant delays in reporting, so data within the past two weeks will be updated frequently.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 07, 2020, 01:07:53 PM
Yes, I saw that disclaimer. So it's more of a reporting thing than an actual thing, I guess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 07, 2020, 01:14:50 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 07, 2020, 01:07:53 PM
Yes, I saw that disclaimer. So it's more of a reporting thing than an actual thing, I guess.
Quite possible that the counties are publicly "reporting" daily based on what the coroners tell them, but that actually getting death certificates into the system has a lag and your site waits until it's "official". I know that CDC data often has a long lag time as well. 

Worldometers might be jumping the gun, to some extent, valuing speed over perfect accuracy. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 07, 2020, 01:14:57 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/07/who-officials-are-reviewing-new-evidence-of-airborne-transmission-importance-of-ventilation-in-fighting-coronavirus.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/07/who-officials-are-reviewing-new-evidence-of-airborne-transmission-importance-of-ventilation-in-fighting-coronavirus.html)

I got the notion early on that transmission from surfaces was probably rare.

Just wear a mask.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 07, 2020, 01:42:37 PM
Texas deaths may be trending up but what clouds this is the fact that a lot of counties were closed July3 and July 4 with catchup reporting on July 6

If daily deaths remain up for the rest of the week then it does mean Texas is trending up but we need to let the rest of the week play out


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 07, 2020, 02:25:44 PM
Teachers might as well be garbage men.

FL saying there must be in-person school at full capacity, knowing proper distancing is physically impossible and no additional funding for all the other safeguards......it's not just incompetence anymore, it's evil.  

Damn GOP leaders have me talking like a wacky church-goer now.  

It's all broken.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 07, 2020, 03:05:30 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 07, 2020, 02:25:44 PM
Teachers might as well be garbage men.

FL saying there must be in-person school at full capacity, knowing proper distancing is physically impossible and no additional funding for all the other safeguards......it's not just incompetence anymore, it's evil. 
Even left-wing Kevin Drum says that reopening schools is a good idea. Experience in Germany and Denmark agrees. 

https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/06/another-look-at-reopening-schools/ (https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/06/another-look-at-reopening-schools/)


Quote
However, we have substantial evidence that closing schools has very little effect on the spread of COVID-19. First, there are studies that look at the effect of various countermeasures, such as this one: (https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/05/school-closure-vs-restaurant-closure-which-is-most-effective/)



[img width=1066 height=544.125]https://www.motherjones.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/blog_covid19_countermeasures.gif[/img][/size][/color]
There have been several other similar empirical studies, and they all conclude that school closures have little effect. (In fact, the study above suggests that closing schools might increase the spread of the virus.)
Second, there’s the experience of other countries. In Germany, which is the gold standard for responding to COVID-19, schools were reopened last May with appropriate precautions and it hasn’t been a problem. Ditto for Denmark and a few others.
I understand how frustrating this is. Logic suggests that reopening schools should be a disaster for both kids and teachers, but both empirical research and experience in other countries says it’s not. The problem is that, as near as I can tell, nobody can explain why it’s not a disaster. It just isn’t.

Plus, I'd rather die of COVID than deal with a full goddamn year of my kids not going to school. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 07, 2020, 03:11:26 PM
The American Academy of Pediatrics and Dr Fauci both say that schools should be reopened.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/30/us/aap-kids-physically-in-school-wellness-trnd/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/30/us/aap-kids-physically-in-school-wellness-trnd/index.html)

If you claim to listen to the experts (doctors and the leading national governmental authority on infectious disease), I think you might want to dig in on this one a little more. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 07, 2020, 03:45:48 PM
There is no question schools need to open. The thought around these parts is that they will open, and rotate between students and the days they attend. Student A would go to school MWF for one week, and TR the next.

There is also talk of a 365 day school year, but try that moving that one on the teachers. I've already heard rumblings of a strike if the district tries to implement. But hey, it's all about the children!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 07, 2020, 04:14:07 PM
I think the easiest way to form an opinion is pretty simple, if a Republican (or Democrat) proposes it, it's really bad, stupid, inane, and evil, but if a Democrat (or Republican) proposes it, it's a great idea.  You run into problems when a Republican governor proposes it and then a Democratic governor from a neighboring state proposes the same thing.

Then you blame it on the media, or somebody else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 07, 2020, 04:21:15 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 07, 2020, 04:14:07 PM
I think the easiest way to form an opinion is pretty simple, if a Republican (or Democrat) proposes it, it's really bad, stupid, inane, and evil, but if a Democrat (or Republican) proposes it, it's a great idea.  You run into problems when a Republican governor proposes it and then a Democratic government from a neighboring state proposes the same thing.

Then you blame it on the media, or somebody else.
😂😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 07, 2020, 04:40:44 PM
https://medium.com/@vernunftundrichtigkeit/coronavirus-why-everyone-was-wrong-fce6db5ba809 (https://medium.com/@vernunftundrichtigkeit/coronavirus-why-everyone-was-wrong-fce6db5ba809)

Not sure about some of this ....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on July 07, 2020, 05:19:53 PM
I'm not sure of the current laws in Texas but I remember at one time the state required a balanced budget.  In other words, the state could not go into the red.  The other thing along with that is the legislature only meets for 90 days every other year.  Everything that needs to get done, legislative wise, has to be done in those 90 days.  Budgets, laws, the whole 9.  It also means that it's less time for bull shit.  If it doesn't get done in those 90 days, it either has to wait two more years or the governor has to call a special session, which does happen occasionally.  Also, I think the state picked up some tobacco settlement funds decades ago and has a "rainy day" fund set aside that should be in the billions by now.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 07, 2020, 05:20:11 PM
It should be noted that only 15% of the occupied ICU beds in Texas are occupied by virus patients

85% of the occupied ICU beds in Texas are non virus related

thats kinda eye opening aint it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 07, 2020, 05:21:43 PM
Quote from: Gigem on July 07, 2020, 05:19:53 PM
I'm not sure of the current laws in Texas but I remember at one time the state required a balanced budget.  In other words, the state could not go into the red.  The other thing along with that is the legislature only meets for 90 days every other year.  Everything that needs to get done, legislative wise, has to be done in those 90 days.  Budgets, laws, the whole 9.  It also means that it's less time for bull shit.  If it doesn't get done in those 90 days, it either has to wait two more years or the governor has to call a special session, which does happen occasionally.  Also, I think the state picked up some tobacco settlement funds decades ago and has a "rainy day" fund set aside that should be in the billions by now. 


you are correct

Texas has a balance budget which is required
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 07, 2020, 05:26:14 PM
Forty nine states have a balanced budget requirement.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 07, 2020, 05:26:36 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 07, 2020, 04:40:44 PM
https://medium.com/@vernunftundrichtigkeit/coronavirus-why-everyone-was-wrong-fce6db5ba809 (https://medium.com/@vernunftundrichtigkeit/coronavirus-why-everyone-was-wrong-fce6db5ba809)

Not sure about some of this ....
That targets my main concern right now, which is that infections will increase in the winter. Coupled with cold and flu season, I'm worried about what that will look like.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 07, 2020, 05:49:53 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 07, 2020, 04:40:44 PM
https://medium.com/@vernunftundrichtigkeit/coronavirus-why-everyone-was-wrong-fce6db5ba809 (https://medium.com/@vernunftundrichtigkeit/coronavirus-why-everyone-was-wrong-fce6db5ba809)

Not sure about some of this ....
Agree... I'm not sure about a LOT of that. 

And given that it was written in Switzerland which had an aggressive response and by the time of original publication (Jun 10) had appeared to nearly eradicate the virus, I understand why he might have thought it was like any other cold/flu that would go away in the summer...

...but what have we here? https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/switzerland/

 (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/switzerland/)Strange that as you get to late June and then July, suddenly you start seeing positive cases trending back up in Switzerland. Almost like reopening their economy starting in May and reopening to tourists starting in mid June started leading to new upticks in infections. 

And that's just the tip of the iceberg.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 07, 2020, 06:09:51 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 07, 2020, 05:26:14 PM
Forty nine states have a balanced budget requirement.
Illinois is one of them. They do it with smoke and mirrors here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 07, 2020, 07:36:05 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 07, 2020, 04:40:44 PM
https://medium.com/@vernunftundrichtigkeit/coronavirus-why-everyone-was-wrong-fce6db5ba809 (https://medium.com/@vernunftundrichtigkeit/coronavirus-why-everyone-was-wrong-fce6db5ba809)

Not sure about some of this ....
medium.com is a blog.

It is literally made by the makers of twitter for people that wanted to type more characters.

It should NEVER be cited here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 07, 2020, 07:38:47 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 07, 2020, 05:20:11 PM
It should be noted that only 15% of the occupied ICU beds in Texas are occupied by virus patients

85% of the occupied ICU beds in Texas are non virus related

thats kinda eye opening aint it
It's shocking that 15% of beds in a huge state like Texas are virus patients.

That is very worrisome...

Texas deaths now starting to increase along with infections.  Will probably be 80+ today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 07, 2020, 07:39:40 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 07, 2020, 04:14:07 PM
I think the easiest way to form an opinion is pretty simple, if a Republican (or Democrat) proposes it, it's really bad, stupid, inane, and evil, but if a Democrat (or Republican) proposes it, it's a great idea.  You run into problems when a Republican governor proposes it and then a Democratic governor from a neighboring state proposes the same thing.

Then you blame it on the media, or somebody else.
god, this is so real it makes my head hurt.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 07, 2020, 07:43:20 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 07, 2020, 03:45:48 PM
There is no question schools need to open. The thought around these parts is that they will open, and rotate between students and the days they attend. Student A would go to school MWF for one week, and TR the next.

There is also talk of a 365 day school year, but try that moving that one on the teachers. I've already heard rumblings of a strike if the district tries to implement. But hey, it's all about the children!!
I am actually a fan of year round school.

Instead of getting like 12 weeks off every summer, kids typically get like three six week breaks.  Plus it is proven to help older kids with burnout, and it is great for stopping "summer loss".

Still 180 days of school.  It's been implemented at various places around the country with great success.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 07, 2020, 08:52:37 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 07, 2020, 03:11:26 PM
The American Academy of Pediatrics and Dr Fauci both say that schools should be reopened.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/30/us/aap-kids-physically-in-school-wellness-trnd/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/30/us/aap-kids-physically-in-school-wellness-trnd/index.html)

If you claim to listen to the experts (doctors and the leading national governmental authority on infectious disease), I think you might want to dig in on this one a little more.
I totally understand this.  But look at it - look at the reasons keeping kids at home is problematic:  lack of socialization, physical/sexual abuse, depression/suicide.....all from being in a broken home environment.  
That's disturbing, isn't it?  We're just chalking up these things as the reality of the situation, so let's get them to school to avoid these things.  

That's one side of it.  I understand kids being in school benefits them, but the real-world, inevitable downside of it matters, too.  Here, I'm switching from the macro, wide-lense statistical view to the focused, daily life, small-sample view.
My school is around 1,000 students.  Are any of them going to die?  Probably not, but maybe 1 or 2?  Okay, so maybe a student dies.  
Those 1,000 students probably live with 2-3,000 family members, many of which are old.  How many of them are going to die?

It's horrible either way is what I'm saying.  But hey, hopefully the pervy uncle sexually abusing a kid gets Covid and dies, huh?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 07, 2020, 09:41:58 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 07, 2020, 07:38:47 PM
It's shocking that 15% of beds in a huge state like Texas are virus patients.

That is very worrisome...

Texas deaths now starting to increase along with infections.  Will probably be 80+ today.
The point is that this is never mentioned

The average person would think that virus cases are just rushing into the ICU wards and thats not the case

The reason there is a shortage is because of the huge backlog of other illnesses that are just now being addressed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 07, 2020, 11:41:52 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 07, 2020, 09:41:58 PM
The point is that this is never mentioned

The average person would think that virus cases are just rushing into the ICU wards and thats not the case

The reason there is a shortage is because of the huge backlog of other illnesses that are just now being addressed
The average person thinks all other maladies have been put on hold?  Tell us more!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 08, 2020, 01:12:20 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 07, 2020, 11:41:52 PM
The average person thinks all other maladies have been put on hold?  Tell us more!
actually yes


the media ties the increase in cases to ICU bed availability and the average listener or viewer thinks that virus cases make up most of the ICU usage which is not the case
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 08, 2020, 03:19:44 AM
Idk if you should be speaking for the average listener/viewer...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 08, 2020, 06:04:26 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 08, 2020, 03:19:44 AM
Idk if you should be speaking for the average listener/viewer...
Longhorn is right on the money of course.  

The media narrative is that Covid cases are exploding so fast that the number of cases is over running the ICU capacity.

it’s called fear mongering.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 08, 2020, 09:03:32 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 08, 2020, 03:19:44 AM
Idk if you should be speaking for the average listener/viewer...
never fear orange man I know Im way above average but I still have time for all you average people
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 08, 2020, 09:06:39 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 08, 2020, 06:04:26 AM
Longhorn is right on the money of course. 

The media narrative is that Covid cases are exploding so fast that the number of cases is over running the ICU capacity.

it’s called fear mongering.
whats happening is that the other medical procedures were put off and started up again with a large backlog

so when this non virus backlog turns normal again we should be ok
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 08, 2020, 09:11:46 AM
It's amusing that "normal" is another term of "average", in a sense, and most folks want to be normal but few brag about being average.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 08, 2020, 09:19:28 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/GZP0D1a.png)

I can't see how this isn't going to get much worse and soon.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 08, 2020, 09:34:21 AM
I dunno. Since so many of the new cases are the stoopid kiddies, it might not be so bad. I know hope is not a plan, but it's all we have still.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 08, 2020, 09:59:03 AM
The infection rate is getting worse, I am hoping the hospitalization rate is manageable, but it's going to be challenged I think numerically.

Maybe we could put recovering patients in nursing homes ....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 08, 2020, 10:01:17 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 08, 2020, 09:59:03 AM
The infection rate is getting worse, I am hoping the hospitalization rate is manageable, but it's going to be challenged I think numerically.

Maybe we could put recovering patients in nursing homes ....
Maybe. Can we all get on TV every day too?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2020, 10:10:39 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 08, 2020, 09:11:46 AM
It's amusing that "normal" is another term of "average", in a sense, and most folks want to be normal but few brag about being average.
I've seen both.

I want no part of either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2020, 10:15:38 AM
I'm convinced this is the week we're going to see the trend in daily deaths turn upward nationally. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 08, 2020, 10:16:57 AM
I think statistically, that is likely.  It may not turn up as fast as confirmed cases though, I hope.

I'd guess it is very possible some locales will overload their hospitals soon.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2020, 10:27:01 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 08, 2020, 10:16:57 AM
I think statistically, that is likely.  It may not turn up as fast as confirmed cases though, I hope.

I'd guess it is very possible some locales will overload their hospitals soon.
I don't expect it to turn up on the exponential again like it did back in March. 

I'm just seeing it accelerate in the "bad states", stall in the "good states" and with slight upticks in those states in between. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 08, 2020, 10:30:22 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 08, 2020, 10:15:38 AM
I'm convinced this is the week we're going to see the trend in daily deaths turn upward nationally.
you sound like me in reverse

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 08, 2020, 10:44:16 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 08, 2020, 10:15:38 AM
I'm convinced this is the week we're going to see the trend in daily deaths turn upward nationally.
The correlation would be difficult, if not impossible, to make. When I went to the hospital for my AB test, I asked about the stays and such. When I was there, "Here Comes the Sun" was played twice over the PA system, throughout the hospital. They play that song when people with the virus are discharged.

The attendant said one of the people was in for almost 2 months, and the other less than 2 weeks.

The point is that there ARE people in the hospital who have been there for months, and could pass today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 08, 2020, 11:58:37 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 08, 2020, 10:01:17 AM
Maybe. Can we all get on TV every day too?
No one wants this. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 08, 2020, 11:58:57 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 08, 2020, 10:30:22 AM
you sound like me in reverse


Purdue is Horns Down?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 08, 2020, 12:01:36 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 08, 2020, 06:04:26 AM
Longhorn is right on the money of course. 

This is my new favorite sentence on the internet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 08, 2020, 12:03:59 PM
The county I live in just passed mandatory mask wearing in public. From what I’ve understood the meeting with the council members and the public was quite contentious, with almost everybody in attendance being against it yet the council voted for unanimously.

There are a lot of common sense exceptions to it like when your social distancing outside and exercising etc.

I guess several of the council members were vehemently opposed to it but when they took the misdemeanor off the table and just made it civil fines they all got on board


I actually applaud it even though it really isn’t going to change much because it seems to me that just about everybody is already wearing masks all the time anyway.

The positive rate in this county is very very high and growing even though the total number of cases is fairly minuscule.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 08, 2020, 12:04:53 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 08, 2020, 10:01:17 AM
Maybe. Can we all get on TV every day too?
We need to do this:  2 posters here, rotating on a weekly college football show.  Cutting to commercial every time they (we) go from arguing to physically fighting...it would be GOLD.  You guys could have an SEC chant button play whenever, I'd wear my orange afro wig when I'm on.  2 of you old guys could be in an overlook of the set, chiming in, a la the Muppet Show. 

People would watch, Ray.  People would most definitely watch.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 08, 2020, 12:06:39 PM
We could start with a podcast. Might not be a bad idea. There's enough knowledge here. I'll be the mixed drinks expert.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 08, 2020, 12:06:46 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 08, 2020, 12:01:36 PM
This is my new favorite sentence on the internet.
Sorry dude.  I call em like I see em.  

If it makes you feel any better- I enjoy your posts related to schools and education - being that you have so much personal experience and insight I could never have. I actually learn that way- a lot of smart people around here.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 08, 2020, 12:17:40 PM
Well all have our strengths and weaknesses. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 08, 2020, 12:18:49 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 08, 2020, 12:06:39 PM
We could start with a podcast. Might not be a bad idea. There's enough knowledge here. I'll be the mixed drinks expert.
I've offered to start a podcast with you guys on here, it's super easy.  We could discuss anything ya'll want, from the '79 Huskers' backfield to everybody's favorite topic, REALIGNMENT...anything.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 08, 2020, 12:33:08 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 08, 2020, 12:01:36 PM
This is my new favorite sentence on the internet.
I got your favorite sentence right here
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2020, 12:42:46 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 08, 2020, 12:03:59 PM
The county I live in just passed mandatory mask wearing in public. From what I’ve understood the meeting with the council members and the public was quite contentious, with almost everybody in attendance being against it yet the council voted for unanimously.

There are a lot of common sense exceptions to it like when your social distancing outside and exercising etc.

I guess several of the council members were vehemently opposed to it but when they took the misdemeanor off the table and just made it civil fines they all got on board


I actually applaud it even though it really isn’t going to change much because it seems to me that just about everybody is already wearing masks all the time anyway.

The positive rate in this county is very very high and growing even though the total number of cases is fairly minuscule. 
The problem is that some people in this country that after all this, are so stupid that they won't wear a mask in public unless it's mandatory. 

The other problem is that some people in this country are so stupid that, after all this, won't wear a mask in public because it's mandatory. 

If the virus would just target them specifically, I wouldn't worry about either group. Sadly, it does not. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 08, 2020, 12:53:27 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on July 08, 2020, 11:58:57 AM
Purdue is Horns Down?
thats a 15 yard penalty for unsportsmanlike conduct - taunting
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 08, 2020, 12:54:58 PM
https://www.11alive.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/testing-problems-continue-in-georgia/85-01930b23-f15f-4fb6-8e45-ab98707e1e92 (https://www.11alive.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/testing-problems-continue-in-georgia/85-01930b23-f15f-4fb6-8e45-ab98707e1e92)

Hospitalizations in Georgia are up since it re-opened in early May.
Varkey says about 20 percent of people infected with the virus will require hospitalization. Among that group include about three to five percent who will end up in intensive care.
“It’s that group in the intensive care unit that I worry about, despite our best efforts in terms of caring for people with critical illnesses, they are going to be an increased risk of dying,” said Varkey.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2020, 01:26:07 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 08, 2020, 10:30:22 AM
you sound like me in reverse
It just seems like even the states where I'm not seeing a tick in the deaths, I'm seeing increases in hospitalizations. 

Here in Orange County we've gone from about 187 ICU to over 220 just since Friday, and hospitalizations are up. Cincy in the post above this mentions that hospitalizations in GA (which also hasn't shown a strong uptick in deaths) are up. 

We know it's bad in AZ, hospitalizations are getting worse in TX, and I don't have data on FL. But all three of those states have started to show a trend up in deaths that is starting to be long-lived enough that it's not looking like a fluke or noise. 

A week ago I was saying "wait and see"; now I'm saying I'll be absolutely shocked if the trend doesn't change based on the data. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 08, 2020, 01:48:21 PM
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-coronavirus-spreads-through-the-air-what-we-know-so-far1/?fbclid=IwAR2iazthDdEmPChm9zOk3yGqeEh3ySMIJtLZ7MJM-g6mH_RaVcxlKtFc5tw (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-coronavirus-spreads-through-the-air-what-we-know-so-far1/?fbclid=IwAR2iazthDdEmPChm9zOk3yGqeEh3ySMIJtLZ7MJM-g6mH_RaVcxlKtFc5tw)

A bit of detail perhaps, I think we know most of this already.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 08, 2020, 01:54:51 PM
Especially for @badgerfan:

(https://i.imgur.com/uGTfJSB.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 08, 2020, 03:50:09 PM
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02009-w?fbclid=IwAR2QyjTUW8qP6S-SNXrFqJekonWJLfBxte8JAl4V4e8aqfZocLK0sDdujgc (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02009-w?fbclid=IwAR2QyjTUW8qP6S-SNXrFqJekonWJLfBxte8JAl4V4e8aqfZocLK0sDdujgc)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on July 08, 2020, 03:56:14 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 08, 2020, 12:54:58 PM
https://www.11alive.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/testing-problems-continue-in-georgia/85-01930b23-f15f-4fb6-8e45-ab98707e1e92 (https://www.11alive.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/testing-problems-continue-in-georgia/85-01930b23-f15f-4fb6-8e45-ab98707e1e92)

Hospitalizations in Georgia are up since it re-opened in early May.
Varkey says about 20 percent of people infected with the virus will require hospitalization. Among that group include about three to five percent who will end up in intensive care.
“It’s that group in the intensive care unit that I worry about, despite our best efforts in terms of caring for people with critical illnesses, they are going to be an increased risk of dying,” said Varkey.




I believe it was a national statistic, but I just read recently that while covid cases are up, hospitalization has decreased from 11% to 5% of the cases as compared to I believe it was March, may have been April. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 08, 2020, 04:00:41 PM

I believe it was a national statistic, but I just read recently that while covid cases are up, hospitalization has decreased from 11% to 5% of the cases as compared to I believe it was March, may have been April.

This is a distortion.

We are testing more, so we have more positives.  We are simply diagnosing more people that have little to no symptoms.  The virus is almost certainly NOT getting weaker, we are simply diagnosing more people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2020, 04:02:55 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on July 08, 2020, 03:56:14 PM
I believe it was a national statistic, but I just read recently that while covid cases are up, hospitalization has decreased from 11% to 5% of the cases as compared to I believe it was March, may have been April.
That makes sense. Because of increased testing, and because we're doing contact tracing, we're catching mild or asymptomatic cases that might not have been caught in March/April. So as a percentage of cases, hospitalization [and ICU and deaths] are expected to decrease. 

The real question is whether we're now going to start seeing an uptick in hospitalizations [and ICU and deaths] as we've jumped from the low 20k ranges of new cases per day to over 50k new cases per day. 

So far on hospitalizations, it points to yes. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 08, 2020, 04:03:50 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 08, 2020, 06:04:26 AM
Longhorn is right on the money of course. 

The media narrative is that Covid cases are exploding so fast that the number of cases is over running the ICU capacity.

it’s called fear mongering.
Yinz really don't know how bad it can be.  Hospitals were bursting at the seams not too long ago around here.  It was absolutely NOT fear mongering.  

Certainly the media is doing their best to get clicks and viewers, but I can promise you that this was really bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on July 08, 2020, 04:04:07 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 08, 2020, 01:26:07 PM
It just seems like even the states where I'm not seeing a tick in the deaths, I'm seeing increases in hospitalizations.

Here in Orange County we've gone from about 187 ICU to over 220 just since Friday, and hospitalizations are up. Cincy in the post above this mentions that hospitalizations in GA (which also hasn't shown a strong uptick in deaths) are up.

We know it's bad in AZ, hospitalizations are getting worse in TX, and I don't have data on FL. But all three of those states have started to show a trend up in deaths that is starting to be long-lived enough that it's not looking like a fluke or noise.

A week ago I was saying "wait and see"; now I'm saying I'll be absolutely shocked if the trend doesn't change based on the data.
Arizona had a record number of death reported (117) the other day. Everybody harped on it, turns out that a fair number of deaths were from people who had died as far back as April, but were just now getting reported. ICU usage is at 84% with 85% of them being non-Covid cases. As I stated earlier the hospitalization rate has gone from 11% to 5% of cases. And a good part of the increase in hospital usage has come from elective things that people had been putting off either by choice or by force.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on July 08, 2020, 04:05:57 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 08, 2020, 04:02:55 PM
That makes sense. Because of increased testing, and because we're doing contact tracing, we're catching mild or asymptomatic cases that might not have been caught in March/April. So as a percentage of cases, hospitalization [and ICU and deaths] are expected to decrease.

The real question is whether we're now going to start seeing an uptick in hospitalizations [and ICU and deaths] as we've jumped from the low 20k ranges of new cases per day to over 50k new cases per day.

So far on hospitalizations, it points to yes.
that is not the statistics that I have been seeing. Going to have to start pulling sources so I can cite them rather than come from my memory
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 08, 2020, 04:15:34 PM
Georgia is exploding in cases, and hospitalizations are going up pretty fast as well, reported deaths remain quite low however.

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/)

Hospital beds have gone from 800 to 2,000 in a month.  New cases per day from 600 to  nearly 3,500.  Deaths remain around 15-20 per day.

I don't understand it.  We were walking today and most people wear masks now unless they are well clear of anyone else and they take steps to stay clear when possible.  This area I'd opine is mostly well educated people, so that may not be a pervasive situation.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2020, 04:39:12 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on July 08, 2020, 04:04:07 PM
Arizona had a record number of death reported (117) the other day. Everybody harped on it, turns out that a fair number of deaths were from people who had died as far back as April, but were just now getting reported. ICU usage is at 84% with 85% of them being non-Covid cases. As I stated earlier the hospitalization rate has gone from 11% to 5% of cases. And a good part of the increase in hospital usage has come from elective things that people had been putting off either by choice or by force.
Yeah, I saw the AZ number yesterday and it was eye-popping. Hadn't seen the clarification on it being a lag. I'll keep my eye on that. 

I gotta say that if you're at 84% ICU usage and 85% of those are non-COVID, that means that you probably don't have enough ICU capacity... If you're at 71% capacity without factoring in COVID, that doesn't give you much room for outlier effects. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on July 08, 2020, 04:47:35 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 08, 2020, 04:15:34 PM
Georgia is exploding in cases, and hospitalizations are going up pretty fast as well, reported deaths remain quite low however.

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/)

Hospital beds have gone from 800 to 2,000 in a month.  New cases per day from 600 to  nearly 3,500.  Deaths remain around 15-20 per day.

I don't understand it.  We were walking today and most people wear masks now unless they are well clear of anyone else and they take steps to stay clear when possible.  This area I'd opine is mostly well educated people, so that may not be a pervasive situation.




We have seen data that suggest poor urban communities have been hit harder than wealthier suburbs... I believe that poor white neighborhoods will soon join that group has one of the hardest hit.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 08, 2020, 04:50:17 PM
The local map suggests the immigrant communities have been hardest hit around here.  There is one rural county east of us 100 miles that went red.

Atlanta in the city has not yet reported high rates of infection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on July 08, 2020, 04:57:22 PM
nationally I believe African Americans make up about 1/4 of the total deaths, yet they are 13% of the population.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 08, 2020, 05:25:56 PM
Quote from: Entropy on July 08, 2020, 04:57:22 PM
nationally I believe African Americans make up about 1/4 of the total deaths, yet they are 13% of the population.
and here is where I could make a snarky comment but I shall not
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 08, 2020, 06:23:29 PM
It's the damn kiddies, dammit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 08, 2020, 09:27:02 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 29, 2020, 09:02:45 PM
yes we know your view on this

I think youre wrong


Unfortunately, Texas has now joined the 100 deaths per day club.  

Still 12 days to go until 7/20. #longhorn320
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on July 08, 2020, 10:08:07 PM
Saw this on another board. Posters are all anonymous, of course, so take it with a grain of salt. 

friend of mine is an AD for a low/mid D1 in the northeast.  His opinion is that there will be some college sports this season, with fans possible, but only immediate family of the athlete, and a maximum of 4 in that group.  Cancellations/forfeiture of games will be so prevalent, that there will be no official conference championships or playoffs.  Some schools within some conferences will cancel the fall sports altogether, some will carry on to the extent that they can.  There will be games that were on the schedule, and a day before, they are cancelled.  There will be last minute substitutions of a game against a team down the street, regardless of division.  Lots of contests between D1, D2, D3, and even NAIA and JC, just because of convenience and to get some games in. It will basically be an exhibition season. 


so if the Wolverines come to town, and OSU has to cancel, then they will head "down the street" and play Otterbein or Ohio Dominican? That seems pretty far fetched. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 09, 2020, 07:03:27 AM
https://www.ajc.com/news/national-govt--politics/atlanta-mayor-bottoms-promises-mandate-requiring-masks-public/KZU9XkXpGr3tPO5NLiftEN/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/national-govt--politics/atlanta-mayor-bottoms-promises-mandate-requiring-masks-public/KZU9XkXpGr3tPO5NLiftEN/)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Benthere2 on July 09, 2020, 08:06:51 AM
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/2020/07/08/ohio-state-halts-college-sports-workouts-covid-19-tests/5402926002/ (https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/2020/07/08/ohio-state-halts-college-sports-workouts-covid-19-tests/5402926002/)

OSU shuts down practices due to COVID testing results

I am getting more worried about a football season happening without a vaccine

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 09, 2020, 08:10:05 AM
I can't say I am "worried" about it, I've given up.  Maybe a few games are played, but if so, what can that mean?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 09, 2020, 09:33:41 AM
7 positives in the Wisconsin AD (out of 450 tests). Not sure how many (or if any) are football.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 09, 2020, 09:48:09 AM
Statistically, one might surmise 3-4 of those positives have personal interactions with players and could have transmitted the virus.  

If one player infects 2 others and they infect 2 others before it's caught .... exponents.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 09, 2020, 12:05:04 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 08, 2020, 09:27:02 PM
Unfortunately, Texas has now joined the 100 deaths per day club. 
Looks like Florida joined that elite group today. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 09, 2020, 12:19:43 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 09, 2020, 12:05:04 PM
Looks like Florida joined that elite group today.
The dashboard shows differently, but who knows? Might have been deaths from the weekend that were finally reported today. Every hospital system reports differently.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 09, 2020, 12:25:54 PM
This article has Unlimited Access. For more coverage, sign up for our daily [color=var(--lc)]coronavirus newsletter (https://www.miamiherald.com/coronavirusnews)[/url]. To support our commitment to public service journalism: [color=var(--lc)]Subscribe Now[/color] (https://account.miamiherald.com/subscribe/create?param=f3NJAUc=&offer=NmEfaxcUb3lSCUJAfRI0d0ogfhBCATomD3BAG15QPgoUG0hQeHNFCEVHb29STx0HLisVS1BIbw45eEtLAAxCdD1QMA%3D%3D&cid=disp_cta_.99mo-2mo-15.99-read-local-corona_202003).[/i][/color]

Florida’s Department of Health on Thursday confirmed 8,935 new cases of COVID-19, bringing the state’s total to 232,718. There were also 120 new deaths announced, raising the statewide toll to 4,009.

The 120 deaths are the most the health department has confirmed within a 24-hour period, although it does not necessarily mean that all of the people died in the past 24 hours.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 09, 2020, 12:32:51 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 09, 2020, 12:19:43 PM
The dashboard shows differently, but who knows? Might have been deaths from the weekend that were finally reported today. Every hospital system reports differently.
True. As mentioned I use worldometers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/)

To be honest I took @Big Beef Tacosupreme (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1529) 's statement of "seeing 100 deaths per day" more along the lines of seeing that number regularly or the average being above or close to 100/day. Neither TX nor FL are there. 

Even with today's number, FL's 7 day MA will only jump to about 56/day. TX's 7 day MA with yesterdays >100 number is only 57/day. CA, who has been looking terrible the last couple days, and who has had a few >100 days in the past, still hasn't exceeded its 7-day MA peak of 82/day, which they hit twice, once in April and once in May. As of yesterday, it's at 79/day. 

The numbers are going the wrong direction, though. And I don't see evidence it's going to stop. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 09, 2020, 02:07:02 PM
Well, I've mentioned the time of infection to death can vary greatly - up to two months in some cases.

The first known case in the US was reported on 1/21. The first deaths started to trickle in well after that. so, we'll see. Maybe someday we will have data on how long people were kept alive, before dying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 09, 2020, 02:10:12 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 09, 2020, 02:07:02 PM
Well, I've mentioned the time of infection to death can vary greatly - up to two months in some cases.

The first known case in the US was reported on 1/21. The first deaths started to trickle in well after that. so, we'll see. Maybe someday we will have data on how long people were kept alive, before dying.
the data Ive seen was an average of 18 days but Ive long since forgotten the source
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 09, 2020, 03:03:35 PM
Wife says one of her doctors (who is clued in b/c she's involved in the Long Beach corona task force) is hearing rumors that CA will go back on lockdown, possible announcement this weekend. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 09, 2020, 03:30:12 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 09, 2020, 03:03:35 PM
Wife says one of her doctors (who is clued in b/c she's involved in the Long Beach corona task force) is hearing rumors that CA will go back on lockdown, possible announcement this weekend.
the poop will hit the fan if that happens cause I dont think the citizens will accept that well
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on July 09, 2020, 03:54:08 PM
Here are the facts...
(https://static.xx.fbcdn.net/images/emoji.php/v9/t25/1.5/16/27a1.png) Yesterday, the percent of Arizona's COVID-19 cases that are hospitalized fell AGAIN to 4.90%.
● On June 11, this number was at 11.00%.
(https://static.xx.fbcdn.net/images/emoji.php/v9/t25/1.5/16/27a1.png) Yesterday, the total mortality rate in Arizona remained at 1.81%.
● On June 1, this number was at 4.43%.
(https://static.xx.fbcdn.net/images/emoji.php/v9/t25/1.5/16/27a1.png) And Arizona reported a near-record number of daily COVID-19 related discharges - 538.
● Since June 1, Arizona has discharged over 8,500 COVID-19 patients from hospitals.
(https://static.xx.fbcdn.net/images/emoji.php/v9/t25/1.5/16/27a1.png) Last month, the CDC estimated that the United States may only be identifying 1/10 of positive COVID-19 cases.
● IF that estimation is applied to ARIZONA, the percent of positive COVID-19 cases hospitalized would be .49%;
● and the total mortality rate would be .18%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 09, 2020, 04:05:48 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on July 09, 2020, 03:54:08 PM
Here are the facts...
(https://static.xx.fbcdn.net/images/emoji.php/v9/t25/1.5/16/27a1.png) Yesterday, the percent of Arizona's COVID-19 cases that are hospitalized fell AGAIN to 4.90%.
● On June 11, this number was at 11.00%.
(https://static.xx.fbcdn.net/images/emoji.php/v9/t25/1.5/16/27a1.png) Yesterday, the total mortality rate in Arizona remained at 1.81%.
● On June 1, this number was at 4.43%.
(https://static.xx.fbcdn.net/images/emoji.php/v9/t25/1.5/16/27a1.png) And Arizona reported a near-record number of daily COVID-19 related discharges - 538.
● Since June 1, Arizona has discharged over 8,500 COVID-19 patients from hospitals.
(https://static.xx.fbcdn.net/images/emoji.php/v9/t25/1.5/16/27a1.png) Last month, the CDC estimated that the United States may only be identifying 1/10 of positive COVID-19 cases.
● IF that estimation is applied to ARIZONA, the percent of positive COVID-19 cases hospitalized would be .49%;
● and the total mortality rate would be .18%.

@riffraft

Dude, as a data guy, there's only one good way to rustle my jimmies.  Distorting of data.

Everything you've posted here is so full of bulljive I can barely take it.

First, we are doing far more testing these days.  More testing means more infected people are being identified.  That pretty much negates point one and two.  I don't care to explain, you can think about it.

Second, more people are being discharged because MORE PEOPLE ARE GOING INTO THE HOSPITAL.  Good god man.  That's point 3.

Third, that is NOT what the CDC said.  You are taking things out of context.  The CDC said that early infections could have been as much as 10 times higher than they are now.  That isn't a surprise, given the test shortage at the time.  Taking something from March and applying it to July is ridiculous.  

Finally, if you really think the mortality rate is 0.18%, then you have lost your mind.  There is literally no credible evidence to back that up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 09, 2020, 04:07:18 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 09, 2020, 12:32:51 PM
True. As mentioned I use worldometers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/)

To be honest I took @Big Beef Tacosupreme (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1529) 's statement of "seeing 100 deaths per day" more along the lines of seeing that number regularly or the average being above or close to 100/day. Neither TX nor FL are there.

Even with today's number, FL's 7 day MA will only jump to about 56/day. TX's 7 day MA with yesterdays >100 number is only 57/day. CA, who has been looking terrible the last couple days, and who has had a few >100 days in the past, still hasn't exceeded its 7-day MA peak of 82/day, which they hit twice, once in April and once in May. As of yesterday, it's at 79/day.

The numbers are going the wrong direction, though. And I don't see evidence it's going to stop.
TX and AZ aren't there yet.  I said last week they would be there by 7/20 if the virus continues to grow at its current rate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 09, 2020, 04:13:09 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 09, 2020, 03:30:12 PM
the poop will hit the fan if that happens cause I dont think the citizens will accept that well
Well the citizens can blame themselves for being stupid in the first place.  Stupidity breeding stupidity.  The masses are not responsible or smart, taken as a whole.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 09, 2020, 04:15:30 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on July 09, 2020, 03:54:08 PM
Here are the facts...
(https://static.xx.fbcdn.net/images/emoji.php/v9/t25/1.5/16/27a1.png) Yesterday, the percent of Arizona's COVID-19 cases that are hospitalized fell AGAIN to 4.90%.
● On June 11, this number was at 11.00%.
(https://static.xx.fbcdn.net/images/emoji.php/v9/t25/1.5/16/27a1.png) Yesterday, the total mortality rate in Arizona remained at 1.81%.
● On June 1, this number was at 4.43%.
(https://static.xx.fbcdn.net/images/emoji.php/v9/t25/1.5/16/27a1.png) And Arizona reported a near-record number of daily COVID-19 related discharges - 538.
● Since June 1, Arizona has discharged over 8,500 COVID-19 patients from hospitals.
(https://static.xx.fbcdn.net/images/emoji.php/v9/t25/1.5/16/27a1.png) Last month, the CDC estimated that the United States may only be identifying 1/10 of positive COVID-19 cases.
● IF that estimation is applied to ARIZONA, the percent of positive COVID-19 cases hospitalized would be .49%;
● and the total mortality rate would be .18%.

Uh... yeah...Arizona is just fabulous.  I feel so confident to go out and touch things and breathe freely.  Brilliant.  You should get a job at ___ ____.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 09, 2020, 04:18:39 PM
Objectively, the president couldn't be doing worse on this.  His name doesn't matter, nor does either party.  Threatening schools with pulling their funding if they don't ACT RESPONSIBLY is, again, indefensible.  

If shutdowns were best left regional, they why wouldn't school openings be the same?  The hypocrisy knows no bounds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 09, 2020, 04:21:04 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 09, 2020, 04:13:09 PM
Well the citizens can blame themselves for being stupid in the first place.  Stupidity breeding stupidity.  The masses are not responsible or smart, taken as a whole.
that may be but does not alter the fact that the citizens will be very very disappointed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 09, 2020, 04:23:08 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 09, 2020, 04:18:39 PM
Objectively, the president couldn't be doing worse on this.  His name doesn't matter, nor does either party.  Threatening schools with pulling their funding if they don't ACT RESPONSIBLY is, again, indefensible. 

If shutdowns were best left regional, they why wouldn't school openings be the same?  The hypocrisy knows no bounds.
Small government or something.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 09, 2020, 04:24:18 PM
Stupid and disappointed....hell, we're halfway to "no way to go through llife, son" territory.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 09, 2020, 04:25:33 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 09, 2020, 04:18:39 PM
Objectively, the president couldn't be doing worse on this.  His name doesn't matter, nor does either party.  Threatening schools with pulling their funding if they don't ACT RESPONSIBLY is, again, indefensible. 

If shutdowns were best left regional, they why wouldn't school openings be the same?  The hypocrisy knows no bounds.
I think the view of school reopening is also held by the CDC

The view is that schools are not bars and can be operated safely plus the low percentage of children catching the virus

I dont think there is a real choice here

if the schools remain closed it will create a much bigger problem then the virus

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 09, 2020, 04:28:33 PM
here is a schools reopening article you might find interesting 

https://www.edutopia.org/article/schools-are-opening-worldwide-providing-model-us?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIntqm44DB6gIVDtvACh2-2A3lEAAYASAAEgI3qPD_BwE (https://www.edutopia.org/article/schools-are-opening-worldwide-providing-model-us?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIntqm44DB6gIVDtvACh2-2A3lEAAYASAAEgI3qPD_BwE)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 09, 2020, 04:28:36 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 09, 2020, 04:23:08 PM
Small government or something.
Luckily most school funding is local and state.  But for anyone to support this crap - a 4 year old can see he wants all students back in person so parents can go to work so that the economy can rebound enough for him to have any sort of chance at re-election.......

I'm sick and tired of having a dipshit moron in the WH.  All else be damned, he's dull-witted.  He doesn't read, consider multiple angles, or plan for the long-term.  It's me-me-me, now-now-now.  The president is a toddler.  Absent of any and all party affiliation, he is objectively inept and selfish.  I'm done.  

He'd try to cheat in a game of checkers with a 7 year old and would still lose...all because he couldn't learn chess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 09, 2020, 04:29:35 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 09, 2020, 04:25:33 PM
I think the view of school reopening is also held by the CDC

The view is that schools are not bars and can be operated safely plus the low percentage of children catching the virus

I dont think there is a real choice here

if the schools remain closed it will create a much bigger problem then the virus


The CDC changed their tune and is in his back pocket for some reason.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 09, 2020, 04:30:41 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 09, 2020, 04:28:36 PM
Luckily most school funding is local and state.  But for anyone to support this crap - a 4 year old can see he wants all students back in person so parents can go to work so that the economy can rebound enough for him to have any sort of chance at re-election.......

I'm sick and tired of having a dipshit moron in the WH.  All else be damned, he's dull-witted.  He doesn't read, consider multiple angles, or plan for the long-term.  It's me-me-me, now-now-now.  The president is a toddler.  Absent of any and all party affiliation, he is objectively inept and selfish.  I'm done. 

He'd try to cheat in a game of checkers with a 7 year old and would still lose...all because he couldn't learn chess.
this is over the top 

take this shit to another thread
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 09, 2020, 04:31:00 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 09, 2020, 04:28:33 PM
here is a schools reopening article you might find interesting

https://www.edutopia.org/article/schools-are-opening-worldwide-providing-model-us?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIntqm44DB6gIVDtvACh2-2A3lEAAYASAAEgI3qPD_BwE (https://www.edutopia.org/article/schools-are-opening-worldwide-providing-model-us?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIntqm44DB6gIVDtvACh2-2A3lEAAYASAAEgI3qPD_BwE)
That's fine for Vermont, but not AZ.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 09, 2020, 04:32:03 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 09, 2020, 04:30:41 PM
this is over the top

take this shit to another thread
Tell me he's smart.  Tell me how mindful he is.  Tell us all how well he's managed this thing. 

Correct me!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 09, 2020, 04:32:23 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 09, 2020, 04:28:33 PM
here is a schools reopening article you might find interesting

https://www.edutopia.org/article/schools-are-opening-worldwide-providing-model-us?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIntqm44DB6gIVDtvACh2-2A3lEAAYASAAEgI3qPD_BwE (https://www.edutopia.org/article/schools-are-opening-worldwide-providing-model-us?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIntqm44DB6gIVDtvACh2-2A3lEAAYASAAEgI3qPD_BwE)
in places with less than 100 new cases a day, schools are reopening...

color me shocked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 09, 2020, 04:33:30 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 09, 2020, 03:30:12 PM
the poop will hit the fan if that happens cause I dont think the citizens will accept that well
the citizens in Cali will accept it much better than the citizens in Texas
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 09, 2020, 04:33:56 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 09, 2020, 04:32:03 PM
Tell me he's smart.  Tell me how mindful he is.  Tell us all how well he's managed this thing.

Correct me!
get the hell out of here youre done 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 09, 2020, 04:34:42 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 09, 2020, 04:33:30 PM
the citizens in Cali will accept it much better than the citizens in Texas
that may be but I assume they still have a pair although that may be dreaming
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 09, 2020, 04:35:07 PM
Animal House - Fat, drunk and stupid - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkoPq5AOCOA)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 09, 2020, 04:39:01 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 09, 2020, 04:32:03 PM
Tell me he's smart.  Tell me how mindful he is.  Tell us all how well he's managed this thing.

Correct me!
no one is going to tell you this

we're all aware of who he is

we don't need to be told over and over and over and over again by you
this won't change anything

nothing will change until after November if you're lucky
if you're unlucky, you can put up with it another 4 years
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 09, 2020, 04:39:30 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 09, 2020, 04:32:03 PM
Tell me he's smart.  Tell me how mindful he is.  Tell us all how well he's managed this thing.

Correct me!
Tell us in another thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 09, 2020, 04:55:51 PM
don't tell us at all

tell your friends on Facebook
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 09, 2020, 04:55:58 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 09, 2020, 04:39:30 PM
Tell us in another thread.
the cavalry has arrived


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6m4G0lhx9A (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6m4G0lhx9A)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 09, 2020, 05:06:24 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 09, 2020, 03:30:12 PM
the poop will hit the fan if that happens cause I dont think the citizens will accept that well
What really pisses me the F off is that I don't think it's businesses being open that's the problem. It's people mingling A LOT with people outside their own household -- without masks or social distancing.

I honestly don't think that going to the grocery store (shoppers masked, workers masked) getting a haircut (stylist/patron masked), getting nails done (provider/patron masked), eating at a restaurant (server masked, social distancing enforced, being there ONLY with your own household) are particularly dangerous. 

It's the people who do things like have big 4th of July parties with all their friends and family that are the problem, which also happen to be the thing that it's *really* hard to police. I had to go to Costco last week, went Thursday midday, and the place was mobbed, with people buying for the holiday. The wife went to the grocery story last Friday, and saw people with carts loaded full of stuff that couldn't be related to anything other than a party. You can police businesses. You can't police jackasses unless their neighbors turn them in, and I don't think that's going to happen. 

So the individuals and businesses that are trying to engage in basic commerce and doing so responsibly will be screwed, while the real problem will continue doing what they're doing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 09, 2020, 05:12:33 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 09, 2020, 04:18:39 PM
Objectively, the president couldn't be doing worse on this.  His name doesn't matter, nor does either party.  Threatening schools with pulling their funding if they don't ACT RESPONSIBLY is, again, indefensible. 
Without getting into politics, what I really find rich is that he was tweeting a mere three days ago about how deaths are down, and that the only reason we have so many cases is because of testing. 

Literally the day before deaths exploded, he was the champion for deaths being down. And now we're well on our way to our third straight day of deaths higher than we've seen in several weeks.

How does he spin that? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 09, 2020, 05:14:45 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 09, 2020, 04:31:00 PM
That's fine for Vermont, but not AZ.
Again, there's little evidence, at least so far, that school closings do much if anything to stop the spread. 

Maybe the evidence is incomplete. But you claim to follow the evidence and science, so it seems, well, ideological to see you ignore or throw out any evidence which doesn't fit your priors...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 09, 2020, 05:21:21 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 09, 2020, 04:33:30 PM
the citizens in Cali will accept it much better than the citizens in Texas
No, we won't. California is full of selfish assholes. People are tired of COVID. They just want to go back to normal.
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 09, 2020, 04:34:42 PM
that may be but I assume they still have a pair although that may be dreaming
It's not balls. It's selfishness and venality. It's putting themselves over everyone else (despite their protestations and virtue signaling otherwise). Where the rubber meets the road, it's "I'm gonna do what the f I want."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 09, 2020, 05:24:00 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 09, 2020, 05:06:24 PM
What really pisses me the F off is that I don't think it's businesses being open that's the problem. It's people mingling A LOT with people outside their own household -- without masks or social distancing.


this is why I was asking about wearing of masks as being the silver bullet to get past this thing.  Obviously, many more folks are wearing masks, or being asked to wear masks, or being forced to wear masks.

if so many more people are wearing masks, and masks are really working, then cases and other numbers should start to drop.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 09, 2020, 05:51:25 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 09, 2020, 04:32:03 PM
Tell me he's smart.  Tell me how mindful he is.  Tell us all how well he's managed this thing.

Correct me!
Quit slurping XiNN.  

and show me how you can give passing grades to ANYONE on this.  you act like it was one persons role 

politicians/c-
“experts” / c
media/d
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 09, 2020, 05:53:26 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 09, 2020, 05:24:00 PM
this is why I was asking about wearing of masks as being the silver bullet to get past this thing.  Obviously, many more folks are wearing masks, or being asked to wear masks, or being forced to wear masks.

if so many more people are wearing masks, and masks are really working, then cases and other numbers should start to drop.
I've been harping on this. People need to go out in public. You can't stay cooped up forever. Sometimes it's critical commerce that has to occur. Sometimes it's less critical.

But if the regulation says you need to wear a mask in public and you have 25 people over for a 4th of July party, you're not in "public". And heck, they're just your family and friends. So come on, why would anyone wear a mask there? 

But that's the problem.


If people *barely* do this, it's not that big of a deal. I.e. if a group of 4-5 housewives are mostly doing their best to engage in social distancing and stay home most of the time, and they meet for brunch once a month? Not that big of a deal. Best practice? No, but not very likely to be a "superspreader" type event.

If people... My jackass neighbors, for example... Have guests over to their house 3-4 nights a week (not the same guests as far as we can tell) and don't social distance or wear masks? Big fucking deal. Especially since I doubt those guests are social distancing at all. 

People don't seem to understand that you're supposed to isolate as much as possible. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 09, 2020, 05:56:12 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 09, 2020, 05:51:25 PM
Quit slurping XiNN. 

and show me how you can give passing grades to ANYONE on this.  you act like it was one persons role

politicians/c-
“experts” / c
media/d

I had a PHYS 261 exam at Purdue where I scored a 59, and with the curve, that was an A.

You grade Him on a curve, it's still an F.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 09, 2020, 08:38:08 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 09, 2020, 05:56:12 PM
I had a PHYS 261 exam at Purdue where I scored a 59, and with the curve, that was an A.

You grade Him on a curve, it's still an F.
It's tough to overstate what a disaster our federal leadership has been. There's no consistent message, there's no consistent data. The story is the same from governors, schools, hospitals, and everyone else. "Where the fuck is the federal government?"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 09, 2020, 08:53:52 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 09, 2020, 05:56:12 PM
I had a PHYS 261 exam at Purdue where I scored a 59, and with the curve, that was an A.

You grade Him on a curve, it's still an F.
On a curve.  I hate the bastard, but when I compare him to others in the state  and federal government- my grade for him might go up.

i guess it comes down to interpretation of what your view of what role does the federal government have responsibility for, including members of both houses and their appointed leaders, and what the role of the “united” states and their elected  leaders are. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 09, 2020, 09:07:39 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 09, 2020, 05:14:45 PM
Again, there's little evidence, at least so far, that school closings do much if anything to stop the spread.

Maybe the evidence is incomplete. But you claim to follow the evidence and science, so it seems, well, ideological to see you ignore or throw out any evidence which doesn't fit your priors...
I don't recall claiming school closings would do anything to stop the spread.  Inadvertent strawman?

Anyway, I'd prefer in-person school.  But these aren't just stats.  I don't want 1 of 1,000 students to die or whatever it would be.  I don't want 4 families from my school to lose grandparents because they resumed in-person school.  While a return to school may not even grow the spread, if it continues it, how can we do it?  

Several school districts here in AZ have already released notices that they'll do online-only school for the first quarter, to October 2nd.  This is probably due to AZ having the highest case-increase % in the world.  Worse than NYC ever was.  I hate online teaching, but it's happening.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 09, 2020, 09:37:25 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 09, 2020, 08:53:52 PM
i guess it comes down to interpretation of what your view of what role does the federal government have responsibility for, including members of both houses and their appointed leaders, and what the role of the “united” states and their elected  leaders are. 
I don't know, but I feel like the FedGov should maybe not throw gasoline on the fire, undermining the ones you think are responsible. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 09, 2020, 09:37:41 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 09, 2020, 09:07:39 PM
I don't recall claiming school closings would do anything to stop the spread.  Inadvertent strawman?

Anyway, I'd prefer in-person school.  But these aren't just stats.  I don't want 1 of 1,000 students to die or whatever it would be.  I don't want 4 families from my school to lose grandparents because they resumed in-person school.  While a return to school may not even grow the spread, if it continues it, how can we do it? 

Several school districts here in AZ have already released notices that they'll do online-only school for the first quarter, to October 2nd.  This is probably due to AZ having the highest case-increase % in the world.  Worse than NYC ever was.  I hate online teaching, but it's happening.
I'm pretty frustrated with all of this. If the president could say things like "look, we support a return to school. It can lead to more spread of the disease, but that effect appears to be mild and the disease has little effect on children." People can operate with that. Instead it's a never ending parade of gobbledygook.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 09, 2020, 09:43:23 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on July 09, 2020, 09:37:41 PM
I'm pretty frustrated with all of this. If the president could say things like "look, we support a return to school. It can lead to more spread of the disease, but that effect appears to be mild and the disease has little effect on children." People can operate with that. Instead it's a never ending parade of gobbledygook.
It's not just about the children.  The children are surrounded by high-risk adults 24/7 - family at home, teachers, paraprofessionals, janitors, cafeteria staff, etc.  These mildly-affected carriers (children) are going to ransack the adults on campus and at home, guaranteed.  And instead of a sick teacher out for 1-3 days like with a normal illness, it's 2 weeks of quarantine, so substitute teachers (who trend older in the first place) will run out, and then what?

It's like the upcoming baseball and football seasons will be:  an utter shit-show, no matter what safety measures are put in place.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 09, 2020, 09:54:05 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 09, 2020, 09:43:23 PM
It's not just about the children.  The children are surrounded by high-risk adults 24/7 - family at home, teachers, paraprofessionals, janitors, cafeteria staff, etc.  These mildly-affected carriers (children) are going to ransack the adults on campus and at home, guaranteed.  And instead of a sick teacher out for 1-3 days like with a normal illness, it's 2 weeks of quarantine, so substitute teachers (who trend older in the first place) will run out, and then what?

It's like the upcoming baseball and football seasons will be:  an utter shit-show, no matter what safety measures are put in place.
I mean yes, that is true. But if the data shows that overall effect is mild, I think we can say having school is worth the extra risk. My frustration is with the going to school or not, it's with these either/or scenarios. Going to school has a value. At some point we need leaders courageous enough to say this is the plan and these are the risks instead of this stupid "you must be afraid/there is nothing to fear" dichotomies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 09, 2020, 10:17:11 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 09, 2020, 09:37:25 PM
I don't know, but I feel like the FedGov should maybe not throw gasoline on the fire, undermining the ones you think are responsible.
Well said. But I would add that the media has thrown even more gas on the fire in their blind hatred.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 09, 2020, 10:58:45 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 09, 2020, 10:15:46 PM
Talk about blind stupidity
So you're FOR withholding funds from school districts that begin their year online?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 09, 2020, 11:01:52 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 09, 2020, 10:58:45 PM
So you're FOR withholding funds from school districts that begin their year online? 
Make up your mind. You constantly scream- you want him to lead take charge and develop a national policy. When he tries to do that you rip him to shreds. Sorry you can’t have your cake and eat it too.

You’re just like the media. There is nothing, and I mean nothing that he could say or do or not say or not do that you will not criticize him for.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 09, 2020, 11:07:06 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 09, 2020, 10:29:18 PM
I don’t think it’s the media this time.  This has been handled terribly and we are doing worse than nearly every other country out there.

you can be a republican and still admit they aren’t perfect. 😁
Let me add, when you run a Very large city in a very liberal way by allowing it to be a sanctuary city where people are living on top of each other, and then on top of that you are warned in writing of the urgent need to be prepared for a pandemic and you blatantly disregard that and spend the money needed on other things. What do you expect is going to happen? You can trace that exact situation to the highest number of deaths In this entire fiasco. And then when you send sick people to live in nursing homes and you caused thousands of more days but the press treat you like God well there you have it. 

Then you spend months chastising people for not isolating and doing weird things like going to church. Then win millions of people take to the streets you don’t chastise them you blatantly encourage it. Well guess what many young people in this country don’t follow any individual political ideology and they get a lot of their news and influence from the media. And when the media basically send you the strongest message yet but it’s OK to get back out there do you not think there’s going to be spikes after that.  Then you spend months chastising people for not isolating and doing weird things like going to church. Then when millions of people take to the streets you don’t chastise them you blatantly encourage it. Well guess what many young people in this country don’t follow any individual political ideology and they get a lot of their news and influence from the media. And when the media basically send you the strongest message yet but it’s OK to get back out there do you not think there’s going to be spikes after that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 09, 2020, 11:07:20 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 09, 2020, 11:01:52 PM
Make up your mind. You constantly scream- you want him to lead take charge and develop a national policy. When he tries to do that you rip him to shreds. Sorry you can’t have your cake and eat it too.

You’re just like the media. There is nothing, and I mean nothing that he could say or do or not say or not do that you will not criticize him for.
You're leaving out a national policy set forth that is a GOOD idea.  Why did you exclude that?  A national, PRUDENT call.  Something thoughtful and sound.  An idea that isn't blindly partisan and is solely, ultimately for his future re-election.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 09, 2020, 11:16:34 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 09, 2020, 10:17:11 PM
Well said. But I would add that the media has thrown even more gas on the fire in their blind hatred. 
I suppose if He had said early on "this is serious, America, let's do everything we can to defeat it" the media might have attacked Him for overreacting. And then He would have had the last laugh.

Instead He is now the butt of the jokes. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 09, 2020, 11:23:05 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 09, 2020, 11:16:34 PM
I suppose if He had said early on "this is serious, America, let's do everything we can to defeat it" the media might have attacked Him for overreacting. And then He would have had the last laugh.

Instead He is now the butt of the jokes.
Well, he did. And they did.  Have you forgotten?

while his opponents including The media desperately We’re desperately trying to impeach him, he issued the first major move in banning incoming flights from China. They lambasted him- called him every name in the book. Meanwhile they did nothing. In fact in the state with the most deaths of anywhere in the world they openly encouraged people to use the subway to go to restaurants in to watch the parade several weeks after that travel ban was issued.

yes- name a politician that isn’t the butt of jokes. 
where do we start.  Speaker, different governors, his opponent probably has provided more laughs than anyone I can remember. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 09, 2020, 11:26:22 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 09, 2020, 11:07:20 PM
You're leaving out a national policy set forth that is a GOOD idea.  Why did you exclude that?  A national, PRUDENT call.  Something thoughtful and sound.  An idea that isn't blindly partisan and is solely, ultimately for his future re-election.
Oh, now I see. If it is a policy YOU agree with.  Got it.  

do you know what the national polling on this issue says?    It says that the majority agree with the intended outcome of his policy. Now granted, When you pull it specifically coming from him people who actually agree with it will disapprove because it’s coming from him because that’s what the media tells them they should be doing but all of the pulling on this has been very in line with him to this point. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 10, 2020, 12:49:49 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 09, 2020, 11:26:22 PM
Oh, now I see. If it is a policy YOU agree with.  Got it. 
not
at 
all



You seem unwilling to have an honest conversation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 10, 2020, 06:13:44 AM
1.  We simply can't close everything long enough to have an effective vaccine.  Can't.  That option is not available.
2.  Barring a vaccine, I think area under the curve will be constant just about everywhere unless nearly all of us adopts mask wearing when in public.
3.  Sweden did not experience a total disaster.
4.  France is going back to school.  Their case rate is way down but not zero.  They shut down hard and it worked, but on reopening, unless they wear masks, it'll come back as it did here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 08:30:34 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 10, 2020, 06:13:44 AM
1.  We simply can't close everything long enough to have an effective vaccine.  Can't.  That option is not available.
2.  Barring a vaccine, I think area under the curve will be constant just about everywhere unless nearly all of us adopts mask wearing when in public.
3.  Sweden did not experience a total disaster.
4.  France is going back to school.  Their case rate is way down but not zero.  They shut down hard and it worked, but on reopening, unless they wear masks, it'll come back as it did here.

Georgia had a pretty good day yesterday

maybe something is working there
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 10, 2020, 08:44:39 AM
We MAY have peaked, I wouldn't call it a good day myself.  Deaths remain low at least, hospitals are reportedly getting close to full.

I THINK individuals are pulling back from exposure situations.  The governor reopened April 23, and as I noted, that didn't reopen much in reality.  Then stuff did reopen, and I got the "feeling" that we were past it.  Folks were out and about, the bar next door was crowded again, and noisy.  The protests hit, and I have to believe that was part of the increase, but the bars and younger folks doing what they do was probably more of consequence.

Now, he numbers are scary, worse than in March, and I think folks have dialed it back.  Atlanta now has a public mask ordinance, which may or may not be enforceable of course.  The joggers I see rarely wear a mask, but we maintain distance.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2020, 08:56:55 AM
Interesting news.

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/07/08/maryland-man-believes-he-may-be-vaccinated-against-covid-19/ (https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/07/08/maryland-man-believes-he-may-be-vaccinated-against-covid-19/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 09:26:58 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2020, 08:56:55 AM
Interesting news.

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/07/08/maryland-man-believes-he-may-be-vaccinated-against-covid-19/ (https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/07/08/maryland-man-believes-he-may-be-vaccinated-against-covid-19/)

I almost posted this also
It is interesting
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 10, 2020, 09:30:04 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/09/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/09/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html)

Gilead said in a statement that remdesivir “was associated with an improvement in clinical recovery and a 62 percent reduction in the risk of mortality compared with standard of care.” The news sent Gilead shares up more than 2% in the premarket. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 09:35:52 AM
Texas had another high case day with deaths over 100 again.

One of the leading counties of both cases and deaths is from Hidalgo county which is way down south Texas at McAllen near the Mexican boarder where its high in Hispanics

Wondering how much if any is coming in from Mexico

Oh well it will calm down eventually

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 10, 2020, 10:51:16 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 09, 2020, 11:23:05 PM
Well, he did. And they did.  Have you forgotten?

while his opponents including The media desperately We’re desperately trying to impeach him, he issued the first major move in banning incoming flights from China. They lambasted him- called him every name in the book. Meanwhile they did nothing. In fact in the state with the most deaths of anywhere in the world they openly encouraged people to use the subway to go to restaurants in to watch the parade several weeks after that travel ban was issued.

yes- name a politician that isn’t the butt of jokes. 
where do we start.  Speaker, different governors, his opponent probably has provided more laughs than anyone I can remember. 
He was itching to stick his finger in China's eye at literally every turn, so the fact that He did ONE thing is being pointed to when He's consistently downplayed the virus literally everywhere else. 

And note two things about the "China ban":



So the one thing that people point to Him doing was late and didn't stop Chinese nationals from entering the country. 

All show, no go. As usual. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 11:02:10 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 10, 2020, 10:51:16 AM
He was itching to stick his finger in China's eye at literally every turn, so the fact that He did ONE thing is being pointed to when He's consistently downplayed the virus literally everywhere else.

And note two things about the "China ban":

  • The major airlines had all announced they were suspending flights from mainland China on Jan 30. He didn't announce His ban until AFTER this happened, and it didn't take effect until Feb 2.
  • Up to 8,000 Chinese nationals have entered the country since His "ban" -- as reported even by Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/world/8000-chinese-nationals-came-into-us-after-trump-travel-ban-coronavirus).


So the one thing that people point to Him doing was late and didn't stop Chinese nationals from entering the country.

All show, no go. As usual.
These individuals did not come here from china directly

The purpose was to ban incoming from China 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 11:24:11 AM
If Trump had banned Chinese in general no matter where they departed from that would have been racist
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 10, 2020, 11:25:55 AM
everything he does is racist
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2020, 11:33:26 AM
C'mon guys. Virus discussion only please.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 11:42:45 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 10, 2020, 11:25:55 AM
everything he does is racist
right I forgot
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 11:43:38 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2020, 11:33:26 AM
C'mon guys. Virus discussion only please.
no problem


lets talk about the elevated Texas death count
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 10, 2020, 11:47:52 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 09, 2020, 11:07:06 PM
Let me add, when you run a Very large city in a very liberal way by allowing it to be a sanctuary city where people are living on top of each other, and then on top of that you are warned in writing of the urgent need to be prepared for a pandemic and you blatantly disregard that and spend the money needed on other things. What do you expect is going to happen? You can trace that exact situation to the highest number of deaths In this entire fiasco. And then when you send sick people to live in nursing homes and you caused thousands of more days but the press treat you like God well there you have it.

Then you spend months chastising people for not isolating and doing weird things like going to church. Then win millions of people take to the streets you don’t chastise them you blatantly encourage it. Well guess what many young people in this country don’t follow any individual political ideology and they get a lot of their news and influence from the media. And when the media basically send you the strongest message yet but it’s OK to get back out there do you not think there’s going to be spikes after that.  Then you spend months chastising people for not isolating and doing weird things like going to church. Then when millions of people take to the streets you don’t chastise them you blatantly encourage it. Well guess what many young people in this country don’t follow any individual political ideology and they get a lot of their news and influence from the media. And when the media basically send you the strongest message yet but it’s OK to get back out there do you not think there’s going to be spikes after that.

Two wrongs don't make a right.

Trump admin has done a terrible job here.  So have other people at all levels.  Spread the blame around, don't shift it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 10, 2020, 11:51:01 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 11:43:38 AM
no problem


lets talk about the elevated Texas death count
ok, if we follow the data trends, Texas should have a number in the 70s.  Then they should post in 70s on Sat, 60s on Sunday, and back over 100 on Monday.  This continues the uphill trend, and is actually accelerating faster than I projected.

Remember, you said you doubted Texas would hit 100 deaths per day, and I said we would revisit on 7/20?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 11:51:59 AM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 10, 2020, 11:47:52 AM
Two wrongs don't make a right.

Trump admin has done a terrible job here.  So have other people at all levels.  Spread the blame around, don't shift it.
its too bad we didnt have you calling the shots since you have all the answers and know all
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 11:52:53 AM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 10, 2020, 11:51:01 AM
ok, if we follow the data trends, Texas should have a number in the 70s.  Then they should post in 70s on Sat, 60s on Sunday, and back over 100 on Monday.  This continues the uphill trend, and is actually accelerating faster than I projected.

Remember, you said you doubted Texas would hit 100 deaths per day, and I said we would revisit on 7/20?
yes thanks for reminding me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 10, 2020, 11:54:01 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 09:35:52 AM
Texas had another high case day with deaths over 100 again.

One of the leading counties of both cases and deaths is from Hidalgo county which is way down south Texas at McAllen near the Mexican boarder where its high in Hispanics

Wondering how much if any is coming in from Mexico

Oh well it will calm down eventually


Ironically, Mexico has closed the borders. I don't think we can blame them for this one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2020, 11:57:06 AM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 10, 2020, 11:54:01 AM
Ironically, Mexico has closed the borders. I don't think we can blame them for this one.
In Arizona, yes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 11:57:58 AM
Just pointing out that one of our hot spots is right by the Mexican border and wondering whats causing it thats all

Texas still has a very low death to positive case count even with the elevated case count so Im hoping this will turn around
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 10, 2020, 11:59:42 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 11:51:59 AM
its too bad we didnt have you calling the shots since you have all the answers and know all
I don't have any answers, but it does bother me when people treat politics like a sports team.  Objectively, the USA has failed at nearly every level with this thing.

Trump certainly deserves some serious criticism here.  It bothers me when people let their allegiances prevent them from seeing the truth.

Let's put it another way:  If Obama was in office under this clusterF*, you'd be calling for his head, and you know you would.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 12:00:22 PM
I dont think Mexico has closed its border to migrant workers or commerce
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 10, 2020, 12:00:51 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 11:02:10 AM
These individuals did not come here from china directly

The purpose was to ban incoming from China
And He excluded Hong Kong and Macau, for some reason. Which is where the bulk of those travelers came from, according to the Fox story. 

And where there were existing cases of COVID on Feb 2, that were traced back to Wuhan:

Quote
Trump’s travel ban on China went into full effect on Feb. 2, at which time 15 people had already been confirmed with coronavirus in Hong Kong and seven people in Macau.
The cases from Macau were later linked directly to Wuhan, the origin of the outbreak.
How many of those ~8K who came through Hong Kong or Macau were flying from mainland China into those airports and then catching flights directly to the US, without enough time spent quarantined in Hong Kong or Macau to make sure they weren't already infected? 

In the end, I'm not going to blame those people for spreading the virus. However, I'm also not going to act like He saved us. Especially since He spent the next two months downplaying it like it was just going to magically disappear. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 12:02:36 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 10, 2020, 11:59:42 AM
I don't have any answers, but it does bother me when people treat politics like a sports team.  Objectively, the USA has failed at nearly every level with this thing.

Trump certainly deserves some serious criticism here.  It bothers me when people let their allegiances prevent them from seeing the truth.

Let's put it another way:  If Obama was in office under this clusterF*, you'd be calling for his head, and you know you would.
Trump has allowed the states to call their own shots so most of any blame goes to the states not the Federal Gov
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 10, 2020, 12:06:24 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 11:51:59 AM
its too bad we didnt have you calling the shots since you have all the answers and know all
If it were me, I'd still have screwed it up. Everyone screwed it up. 

Graded on the curve, I'll bet I'd have done better than Him. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 10, 2020, 12:11:37 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 12:02:36 PM
Trump has allowed the states to call their own shots so most of any blame goes to the states not the Federal Gov
And He's consistently undermined the states calling their own shots. Remember how He cheered on all the protesters who were against states closing with His "Liberate" tweets? Remember how He wanted all the churches open by Easter? It was His quote of not letting the cure be worse than the disease. Even now He is telling schools to reopen [which I personally agree with BTW] in the fall at full capacity. 

You can't claim He left everything to the states when He then tried to tell them what to do, and it was in direct opposition to what they were doing. 

He has consistently downplayed the virus which has made it harder for states to enforce any restrictions or guidelines that might help. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 10, 2020, 12:17:18 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 10, 2020, 11:59:42 AM
I don't have any answers, but it does bother me when people treat politics like a sports team.  Objectively, the USA has failed at nearly every level with this thing.

Trump certainly deserves some serious criticism here.  It bothers me when people let their allegiances prevent them from seeing the truth.

Let's put it another way:  If Obama was in office under this clusterF*, you'd be calling for his head, and you know you would.
as I have said all along POTUS is an idiot.  

Your the first person to fess up to the fact that there is plenty of blame to go around     Allegiances go both ways.  

I have NONE.  Which is why it is so easy to see how totally skewed the media is.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 10, 2020, 12:17:28 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 12:02:36 PM
Trump has allowed the states to call their own shots so most of any blame goes to the states not the Federal Gov
it's impossible for me to tell if the Fed had power to tell the states what to do and what not to do
when Trump had an idea the blue states didn't like they stated he didn't have that power

I've asked folks here and many other places to provide an example of good solid leadership from elected officials
I have some decent answers but not many and only decent at best

it doesn't appear anyone has the silver bullet for dealing with the virus, similar to dealing with poverty and racism.

blaming the current president that stands behind the podium has always been the answer
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 10, 2020, 12:19:05 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 10, 2020, 12:11:37 PM
And He's consistently undermined the states calling their own shots. Remember how He cheered on all the protesters who were against states closing with His "Liberate" tweets? Remember how He wanted all the churches open by Easter? It was His quote of not letting the cure be worse than the disease. Even now He is telling schools to reopen [which I personally agree with BTW] in the fall at full capacity.

You can't claim He left everything to the states when He then tried to tell them what to do, and it was in direct opposition to what they were doing.

He has consistently downplayed the virus which has made it harder for states to enforce any restrictions or guidelines that might help.
Get your facts together, just like your post on the travel ban.  Incorrect.  Also- please stop assuming you are a mind reader and know his motivations.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 10, 2020, 12:21:57 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 10, 2020, 12:17:18 PM
as I have said all along POTUS is an idiot. 

Your the first person to fess up to the fact that there is plenty of blame to go around    Allegiances go both ways. 

I have NONE.  Which is why it is so easy to see how totally skewed the media is. 
I think the media goes too far in pretending he's not an idiot
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 12:38:31 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 10, 2020, 12:17:28 PM

blaming the current president that stands behind the podium has always been the answer
at least from a certain side of the aisle
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 10, 2020, 12:44:50 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on July 10, 2020, 12:21:57 PM
I think the media goes too far in pretending he's not an idiot
Impossible.  They have been calling him an idiot, working hard to twist his words when they need to, correctly jumping on his idiotic words when they don’t need twisting, blaming him for everything that is perceived as bad, arguing that anything that could be perceived as good is either not good or someone else should get credit-   Since before he was elected.   They have praised those who made fun of him or threatened him with death, either directly or inferred, and persecuted anything or anyone who defended him or was associated with him.  
I think you know all this.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 10, 2020, 12:48:26 PM
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/us-weighs-ban-on-all-flights-from-china-over-virus-outbreak-report-2020-01-28


For those who want to rewrite history about the ban on flights from China.  

By the way- there are credible people who have now escaped from China, alleging validation of their cover up. 

I am proof that you don’t have to be a POTUS supporter to understand what an atrocity they committed here.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 10, 2020, 12:50:13 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 10, 2020, 12:19:05 PM
Get your facts together, just like your post on the travel ban.  Incorrect.  Also- please stop assuming you are a mind reader and know his motivations. 
I love it when the best someone can come up with is "get your facts together" and doesn't point to anything I've said that's not factual. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 10, 2020, 12:56:31 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 10, 2020, 12:44:50 PM
Impossible.  They have been calling him an idiot, working hard to twist his words when they need to, correctly jumping on his idiotic words when they don’t need twisting, blaming him for everything that is perceived as bad, arguing that anything that could be perceived as good is either not good or someone else should get credit-  Since before he was elected.  They have praised those who made fun of him or threatened him with death, either directly or inferred, and persecuted anything or anyone who defended him or was associated with him. 
I think you know all this. 
That's pretty typical for all presidents. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 10, 2020, 01:15:02 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 12:38:31 PM
at least from a certain side of the aisle
BULLLLLLLLLSHITTTTTTTTTTT.  If Obama did any one thing Trump has done, you'd consider him the antichrist.  Look up hypocrite in the dictionary, because I'm convinced you don't have an inkling of what it means.  You are ASTOUNDING.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 10, 2020, 01:16:33 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 10, 2020, 12:44:50 PM
Impossible.  They have been calling him an idiot, working hard to twist his words when they need to, correctly jumping on his idiotic words when they don’t need twisting, 
They're trying to open the eyes of his blind followers.  And yes, it's a lost cause.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2020, 01:17:09 PM
This is getting close.

:105:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 10, 2020, 01:26:44 PM
We passed two police officers coming back from the botanical garden.  Neither had on a mask and neither made any move to give us more room on the sidewalk.

They did smile and say hello.

We have a mask "mandate" in the city now.  Sort of.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 10, 2020, 01:30:49 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 12:02:36 PM
Trump has allowed the states to call their own shots so most of any blame goes to the states not the Federal Gov
Oh, no.  There's plenty of blame to go around.

Certainly the federal government could have stepped up in many ways, and have failed more often than not.

The mixed messages from the president is bad enough.  He all but spent months call it a hoax, then not a big deal, then it was China's fault, then he said we need to to open up the economy, he refuses to wear a mask, he's now talking about forcing local and state governments to put kids back to school...

come on man.  Stop giving this guy a pass on everything just because he's on your team.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 10, 2020, 01:32:30 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 10, 2020, 01:16:33 PM
They're trying to open the eyes of his blind followers.  And yes, it's a lost cause. 
Tone it down man.  We are all friends here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2020, 02:28:37 PM
Just to make sure everyone remembers:


https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152 (https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152)


Had they come clean as early as is now suspected, lives could have been saved. A lot of lives.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 10, 2020, 02:37:41 PM
If there was no clear evidence from preliminary investigations, should they have fabricated some?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 10, 2020, 02:41:20 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 10, 2020, 02:37:41 PM
If there was no clear evidence from preliminary investigations, should they have fabricated some?
I'm hard pressed to think how the Chinese could have experienced a virus this contagious and not known it was due to human-human transmission.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2020, 02:42:03 PM
They certainly fabricated that story of no evidence, that's for sure.

Unless, of course, you trust the CCP was being honest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2020, 02:42:54 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 10, 2020, 02:41:20 PM
I'm hard pressed to think how the Chinese could have experienced a virus this contagious and not known it was due to human-human transmission.

It's because everyone was eating bats. For realz.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 10, 2020, 02:47:09 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 10, 2020, 02:41:20 PM
I'm hard pressed to think how the Chinese could have experienced a virus this contagious and not known it was due to human-human transmission.

I mean...it was reported as a cluster of pneumonia cases just two weeks before year tweet. Two weeks ain't a lot of time to figure out properties of a disease
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2020, 02:53:53 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on July 10, 2020, 02:47:09 PM
I mean...it was reported as a cluster of pneumonia cases just two weeks before year tweet. Two weeks ain't a lot of time to figure out properties of a disease
By the CCP.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 10, 2020, 02:59:07 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 10, 2020, 12:50:13 PM
I love it when the best someone can come up with is "get your facts together" and doesn't point to anything I've said that's not factual.
Your claim that the travel ban was already instituted by the airlines before he did it.  Completely false.  

posted an article up thread dated 1/28 that said several airlines were thinking about it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 03:03:44 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 10, 2020, 02:59:07 PM
Your claim that the travel ban was already instituted by the airlines before he did it.  Completely false. 

posted an article up thread dated 1/28 that said several airlines were thinking about it.
dont tell me that was fake news dern
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 10, 2020, 03:03:59 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 10, 2020, 02:37:41 PM
If there was no clear evidence from preliminary investigations, should they have fabricated some?
I can’t believe we are still having this conversation.    The WHO has now even officially backtracked on their original claim that CCP was upfront with in disclosing it to them.  
They quietly changed  their website to reflect what really happened- they learned about it on the internet. Plus you have the missing doctors.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2020, 03:06:41 PM
Assigning blame to anyone/anything besides the CCP is foolish at best. They knew what they had and they unleashed it.

Throughout most of March we were told to not wear masks. Our highest profile leaders were telling us to go about our business. Take cruises. Fly anywhere (but China). Then before you could say California three times, we were mostly all on lockdown.

This thing got bad for us, and it got bad fast.

One thing I do wish happened was not only closing to China, but closing the borders to all travel, no matter where to or where from. It would have caused extreme backlash at first, but lives would have been saved. I'm not sure anyone in this country would have had the stones to do it. Seriously.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 10, 2020, 03:14:47 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 12:38:31 PM
at least from a certain side of the aisle
both sides
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 10, 2020, 03:18:55 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2020, 03:06:41 PM
Assigning blame to anyone/anything besides the CCP is foolish at best. They knew what they had and they unleashed it.
I'm not sure the WHO is blameless
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 10, 2020, 03:25:30 PM
I dunno, it's been months and given our federal government's complete ineptitude it's hard to blame anyone else. This isn't the first pandemic, it won't be the last. It's less about some wrong decision here or there and more about having a plan that people understand and can follow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 03:30:05 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 10, 2020, 03:14:47 PM
both sides
one side way more then the other
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 10, 2020, 03:33:12 PM

Quote from: MaximumSam on July 10, 2020, 03:25:30 PM
I dunno, it's been months and given our federal government's complete ineptitude it's hard to blame anyone else. This isn't the first pandemic, it won't be the last. It's less about some wrong decision here or there and more about having a plan that people understand and can follow.
what should the federal government have done to make things much better in Texas and Arizona?

and would those actions have been enforceable in those states ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 10, 2020, 03:43:39 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 10, 2020, 03:33:12 PM
what should the federal government have done to make things much better in Texas and Arizona?

and would those actions have been enforceable in those states ?
A consistent message would have been nice.  Or listening to the experts. But that ship has sailed.

I have no idea why this got politicized in the beginning, and why it got more so as time went on.  And our leaders just inflamed the problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2020, 03:45:13 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on July 10, 2020, 03:25:30 PM
I dunno, it's been months and given our federal government's complete ineptitude it's hard to blame anyone else. This isn't the first pandemic, it won't be the last. It's less about some wrong decision here or there and more about having a plan that people understand and can follow.
We're still learning what this thing is. That's the biggest problem I see. New stuff and advisories come out every week, it seems.

A couple of things are certain to me. Wear a mask in public. Don't congregate inside with large groups. Other than that, I don't know what more I or anyone can do, until we get the vaccine. Much to my surprise, that is actually looking promising - at least for today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on July 10, 2020, 03:46:06 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 09, 2020, 09:43:23 PM
It's not just about the children.  The children are surrounded by high-risk adults 24/7 - family at home, teachers, paraprofessionals, janitors, cafeteria staff, etc.  These mildly-affected carriers (children) are going to ransack the adults on campus and at home, guaranteed.  And instead of a sick teacher out for 1-3 days like with a normal illness, it's 2 weeks of quarantine, so substitute teachers (who trend older in the first place) will run out, and then what?

It's like the upcoming baseball and football seasons will be:  an utter shit-show, no matter what safety measures are put in place.
ttps://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/health/coronavirus-nsw-study-shows-children-arent-spreading-covid19-to-other-kids/news-story/15ce81cd9ee486e09143cd7fb426ef7b
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2020, 03:46:46 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 10, 2020, 03:43:39 PM
A consistent message would have been nice.  Or listening to the experts. But that ship has sailed.

I have no idea why this got politicized in the beginning, and why it got more so as time went on.  And our leaders just inflamed the problem.

See my post above. Hard to be consistent when you have no idea what's going on.

Dr. Fauci predicted 2 Million deaths in the USA, right? Even experts can be wrong. Except me, of course. I'm an engineer and we are not wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on July 10, 2020, 03:49:49 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on July 10, 2020, 12:21:57 PM
I think the media goes too far in pretending he's not an idiot
Anybody who actually believe this, may be a pot calling the kettle black. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2020, 03:53:30 PM
Virus discussion please.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 10, 2020, 03:53:34 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2020, 03:46:46 PM
See my post above. Hard to be consistent when you have no idea what's going on.

Dr. Fauci predicted 2 Million deaths in the USA, right? Even experts can be wrong. Except me, of course. I'm an engineer and we are not wrong.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/29/823517467/fauci-estimates-that-100-000-to-200-000-americans-could-die-from-the-coronavirus

Pretty spot on if you ask me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 10, 2020, 03:55:43 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 10, 2020, 03:43:39 PM
A consistent message would have been nice.  Or listening to the experts. But that ship has sailed.

I have no idea why this got politicized in the beginning, and why it got more so as time went on.  And our leaders just inflamed the problem.

I don't think any leader or "expert" has stayed with a consistent message

listening to "experts"  who are the experts and how does anyone confirm that they are correct?
I'm not convinced any consistent message would have made much difference in Texas
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2020, 03:56:52 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on July 10, 2020, 03:53:34 PM
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/29/823517467/fauci-estimates-that-100-000-to-200-000-americans-could-die-from-the-coronavirus

Pretty spot on if you ask me
I thought he estimated in the millions.


https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/487626-fauci-worst-case-deaths-unlikely-if-we-do-the-kinds-of-things-that



 (https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/487626-fauci-worst-case-deaths-unlikely-if-we-do-the-kinds-of-things-that)In there, he did. So we get conflicting information everywhere. It's what happens when we know nothing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 04:01:23 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on July 10, 2020, 03:53:34 PM
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/29/823517467/fauci-estimates-that-100-000-to-200-000-americans-could-die-from-the-coronavirus

Pretty spot on if you ask me
even a blind hog finds an acorn every now and then

Fauci is probably very good at his job

he just has a bad habit of getting on talk shows and making some really off the wall statements

then he has to reverse and explain himself and it creates an impression of not really knowing what the hell he is doing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 04:08:03 PM
This is what Im reminded of every time someone acts like they have all the answers to the virus

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=64yianfGvzc (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=64yianfGvzc)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 10, 2020, 04:14:53 PM
Does anyone here doubt that 100,000 to 200,000 Americans COULD die of COVID?:

I don't see how that statement can be doubted.

He speaks like  scientist, and the media manage to mangle what he clearly says in my view.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 10, 2020, 04:22:01 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/coronavirus-live-updates.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/coronavirus-live-updates.html)

Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the former Food and Drug Administration commissioner, said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” he believes as many as 1 in 150 people in the U.S. are infected (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/dr-scott-gottlieb-on-coronavirus-infection-levels-in-the-us.html) with the coronavirus. 

“We must have well over 700,000 infections a day, even though we’re only diagnosing about 60,000,” said Gottlieb, who added that when the U.S. had about 20,000 new diagnosed infections per day, about 1 in 200 people were actually believed to be infected. “Now, it must be higher than that.” 

I'm not sure I buy this, but I suppose it's possible.  One in a hundred would mean nearly 3.3 million infections.  If we are nearing a million new infections per day, a lot of them must be very mild.  This would mean about 20 million a month.  And climbing.

My step grandkids had school for two weeks and now are out on break (schedule) until September.  I'm not sure what that two weeks would accomplish.  Their educational system is much more centralized than is ours.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2020, 04:25:07 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 10, 2020, 04:14:53 PM
Does anyone here doubt that 100,000 to 200,000 Americans COULD die of COVID?:

I don't see how that statement can be doubted.

He speaks like  scientist, and the media manage to mangle what he clearly says in my view.
Not at all. I have a lot of respect for him, but when he predicted millions early on I raised my eyebrows a bit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 10, 2020, 04:26:08 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2020, 03:56:52 PM
I thought he estimated in the millions.


https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/487626-fauci-worst-case-deaths-unlikely-if-we-do-the-kinds-of-things-that



 (https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/487626-fauci-worst-case-deaths-unlikely-if-we-do-the-kinds-of-things-that)In there, he did. So we get conflicting information everywhere. It's what happens when we know nothing.
I read that link and see him specifically saying millions won't die
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 10, 2020, 04:30:06 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2020, 04:25:07 PM
Not at all. I have a lot of respect for him, but when he predicted millions early on I raised my eyebrows a bit.
He never predicted that.  He discounted that as a likelihood.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 10, 2020, 04:30:57 PM
The CDC reportedly predicted 160 million to 214 million infections, 2.4 million to 21 million hospitalizations and 200,000 to 1.7 million deaths in the country. 
Fauci responded that a model is “only as good as the assumptions you put into a model.”
“The worst-case scenario is either you do nothing or your mitigation and containments don't succeed,” he said “So although that's possible, it is unlikely if we do the kinds of things that we're essentially outlining right now.”


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 04:31:44 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 10, 2020, 04:22:01 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/coronavirus-live-updates.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/coronavirus-live-updates.html)

Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the former Food and Drug Administration commissioner, said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” he believes as many as 1 in 150 people in the U.S. are infected (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/dr-scott-gottlieb-on-coronavirus-infection-levels-in-the-us.html) with the coronavirus.

“We must have well over 700,000 infections a day, even though we’re only diagnosing about 60,000,” said Gottlieb, who added that when the U.S. had about 20,000 new diagnosed infections per day, about 1 in 200 people were actually believed to be infected. “Now, it must be higher than that.”

I'm not sure I buy this, but I suppose it's possible.  One in a hundred would mean nearly 3.3 million infections.  If we are nearing a million new infections per day, a lot of them must be very mild.  This would mean about 20 million a month.  And climbing.

My step grandkids had school for two weeks and now are out on break (schedule) until September.  I'm not sure what that two weeks would accomplish.  Their educational system is much more centralized than is ours.
the math doesnt work here

if 1 out of every 150 people were infected that would be 2.3M people but if we are having over 700,000 people get infected every day thats only 3 or 4 days worth so Im not seeing the 700,000 a day stuff
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 10, 2020, 04:35:10 PM
The initial pandemic models are hypotheticals, the folks who study these things run various scenarios with their models in theory all the time.  When something hits, they TRY and match the best model they have in terms of what is thought to be known about the new disease.

They presume no inherent immunity to the new disease for the population.

Then they use what limited information is available to estimate how contagious it may be.  This one is dicey.

Then they use the same to try and estimate mortality figures.

From there, it's a pretty simple model.  The models presume nothing can be done to combat it, no mitigation, no isolation, no face masks, no nothing, at least initially.  This spits out what COULD happen, emphasis on COULD, worst case scenario, with a wide range in the estimate, as we have seen.

The big problem with COVID is that latency period wherein a person can be contagious and not know it for 2-3-4-5-6 days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 10, 2020, 04:36:25 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 10, 2020, 04:31:44 PM
the math doesnt work here

if 1 out of every 150 people were infected that would be 2.3M people but if we are having over 700,000 people get infected every day thats only 3 or 4 days worth so Im not seeing the 700,000 a day stuff
It only works if you start at a very low base and presume a very steep sudden rise, which is not really what is happening.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 10, 2020, 04:46:32 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2020, 03:46:46 PM
See my post above. Hard to be consistent when you have no idea what's going on.

Dr. Fauci predicted 2 Million deaths in the USA, right? Even experts can be wrong. Except me, of course. I'm an engineer and we are not wrong.
No, it really isn't.

Not in the way you think, though.

Consistent message:  This is much more serious than the flu.  This could be very bad.

Consistent message:  This is serious, the lockdown is serious, be a patriot and stay home.

Consistent message:  We've determined that masks may do a lot of good.  Please wear a mask whenever you leave the house.  (Trump/Pence, etc. wearing masks to model the new guidelines)

Consistent message:  If we do a good job social distancing, we can open up.  

I bet I could look at Trump's tweets just today and find something not in line with the messages above.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 10, 2020, 05:04:43 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2020, 03:56:52 PM
I thought he estimated in the millions.


https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/487626-fauci-worst-case-deaths-unlikely-if-we-do-the-kinds-of-things-that



 (https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/487626-fauci-worst-case-deaths-unlikely-if-we-do-the-kinds-of-things-that)In there, he did. So we get conflicting information everywhere. It's what happens when we know nothing.
He said in the millions were possible if we do nothing or if the things we do just don't work. He said millions is "unlikely" if we do those things.

It turns out we did something. We did a LOT of something. Most of the country was bitching about the something we did.

Now we're going to call him wrong like he predicted millions of deaths that haven't happened, when we did the very things he told us would keep the possibility of millions of deaths from happening? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 10, 2020, 06:05:11 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2020, 04:25:07 PM
Not at all. I have a lot of respect for him, but when he predicted millions early on I raised my eyebrows a bit.
Give it time. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 10, 2020, 06:05:59 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 10, 2020, 05:04:43 PM
He said in the millions were possible if we do nothing or if the things we do just don't work. He said millions is "unlikely" if we do those things.

It turns out we did something. We did a LOT of something. Most of the country was bitching about the something we did.

Now we're going to call him wrong like he predicted millions of deaths that haven't happened, when we did the very things he told us would keep the possibility of millions of deaths from happening?
I applaud your stick-to-it-ive-ness.  I can't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 10, 2020, 06:07:07 PM
Guys, it's not hard to imagine wide swaths of humanity who have it, are asymptomatic, and thus, untested.  It's plain as day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 10, 2020, 06:17:50 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 10, 2020, 06:07:07 PM
Guys, it's not hard to imagine wide swaths of humanity who have it, are asymptomatic, and thus, untested.  It's plain as day.
The testing that has been done to date indicate this isn't the case, depending on what is meant by "wide swaths".

Obviously more people have it, or have had it, than have been tested, but the percentage positives in the testing suggests it is a factor of 3 to perhaps 10 at the high end, probably something like 5x.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 10, 2020, 08:35:33 PM
10.8 million people being tested in a country of 370 million......helluva swath, 359 million people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 10, 2020, 09:01:36 PM
Maricopa County (Phx) is ordering refrigerated trucks for corpses.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 10, 2020, 09:28:23 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 10, 2020, 09:01:36 PM
Maricopa County (Phx) is ordering refrigerated trucks for corpses. 
Is Arizona still “open?”
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 10, 2020, 10:07:14 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/JGluW5t.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on July 11, 2020, 01:36:17 AM
Pima County (Tucson) has a mask ordinance in place thanks to the Mayor. But the Sheriff will not enforce it. Tucson has its own police department. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 11, 2020, 08:41:23 AM
I don't see how a mask ordinance can be enforced in practical terms.

The two police we passed yesterday weren't wearing one, I can't see how they generally would actually cite a person for it.  Seriously.

And the OUT around here is that you can EITHER socially distance OR wear a mask.  Who has a 6 foot measuring stick?

The mayor here was speaking last week without a mask into a microphone and two days later tested positive.  I realize it's tough to speak with a mask, but she wasn't setting an example.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 11, 2020, 09:33:48 AM
so, masks and social distancing aren't going to fix this

I'm guessing this won't get fixed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 11, 2020, 09:46:21 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 11, 2020, 09:33:48 AM
so, masks and social distancing aren't going to fix this

I'm guessing this won't get fixed
*In the United States. 

it worked everywhere else. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 11, 2020, 09:51:20 AM
I can't see a likely positive outcome at this point.  We may as well have bulled through it in March, maybe, though at least now we know a bit more about "it" and treatment options are better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 11, 2020, 10:04:59 AM
I think the main issue now is what a second wave looks like, off there is one. New York was hit hard and is doing well now - paying close attention to them when the weather turns colder and flu season hits.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 11, 2020, 10:23:22 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 10, 2020, 09:01:36 PM
Maricopa County (Phx) is ordering refrigerated trucks for corpses. 
So is Texas.  
it is much worse there than reported. 
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/As-COVID-19-continues-to-slam-Houston-the-death-15400462.php
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 11, 2020, 10:26:31 AM
I see no reason to think there will be some weather related second wave.  No doubt the flu season will be a "wave".  The rise in cases once a place reopens is a continuation of the first wave that was "mitigated".  I suppose it's semantics though.

Some thought this would be seasonal, and I think it clearly is not impacted by normal seasonality.  Weather can of course impact how humans interact.

I "think" influenza is seasonal in part because dry nasal passages are more susceptible to that virus, same with colds.  That is one theory anyway.

COVID does not appear to share that trait, I think.

Maybe this, maybe that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 11, 2020, 10:53:31 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 11, 2020, 10:26:31 AM
I see no reason to think there will be some weather related second wave.  No doubt the flu season will be a "wave".  The rise in cases once a place reopens is a continuation of the first wave that was "mitigated".  I suppose it's semantics though.

Some thought this would be seasonal, and I think it clearly is not impacted by normal seasonality.  Weather can of course impact how humans interact.

I "think" influenza is seasonal in part because dry nasal passages are more susceptible to that virus, same with colds.  That is one theory anyway.

COVID does not appear to share that trait, I think.

Maybe this, maybe that.
Well, maybe. Though respiratory illnesses tend to be seasonal. Flu, colds, probably this too. If it isn't and there is a steady decline, that would be awesome. But I don't see many experts optimistic about that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 11, 2020, 11:02:20 AM
I see no evidence this is seasonal.

We're into summer heat here, and yesterday's new case count was nearly 4,500, up from about 2,800, in one day.  We're blowing well past any previous counts.  

Florida is spiking, Arizona, Texas, obviously ....

It COULD be seasonal, of course, which means come Fall it will be much worse than NOW?????
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 11, 2020, 01:43:55 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 11, 2020, 11:02:20 AM
I see no evidence this is seasonal.

We're into summer heat here, and yesterday's new case count was nearly 4,500, up from about 2,800, in one day.  We're blowing well past any previous counts. 

Florida is spiking, Arizona, Texas, obviously ....

It COULD be seasonal, of course, which means come Fall it will be much worse than NOW?????
I wouldn't necessarily conflate seasonal with "it will be worse." There aren't very clear answers on why flus and colds shake out that way. Also, had we not had the lockdowns and social distancing, these areas probably would have been hit harder earlier instead of right now.

In any event, maybe "second wave" is a better term. Areas like Italy and New York were hit hard and certainly are doing better now. So I'm watching the numbers in those areas more closely - if they tick back up or not should tell us the earliest whether we are going to get another round.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 11, 2020, 02:48:12 PM
I think it's semantics, so I'm OK with "2nd wave", but I view it more as continuation of wave one.

The 1918-1919 flu had a clear second (and third) wave because apparently the virus mutated.

Is there any reason to think Italy et al. won't see a resurgence as they reopen?  More mask wearing perhaps?

Yesterday here was really bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 11, 2020, 03:12:09 PM
I'm seeing masks on about 95 percent of people here in Wisconsin. Despite being full-on open (zero restrictions at all) for almost 2 months, the spikes we are seeing elsewhere are not happening up here.

Wisconsin people are smart, I guess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 11, 2020, 03:15:37 PM
Then there's Florida... Mostly SE, Tampa and Orlando areas.

SW Florida is doing very well. Smart people live there, like me and stuff.




(https://i.imgur.com/FjsZDoA.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 11, 2020, 03:37:03 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 10, 2020, 05:04:43 PM
He said in the millions were possible if we do nothing or if the things we do just don't work. He said millions is "unlikely" if we do those things.

It turns out we did something. We did a LOT of something. Most of the country was bitching about the something we did.

Now we're going to call him wrong like he predicted millions of deaths that haven't happened, when we did the very things he told us would keep the possibility of millions of deaths from happening?
Except that not everybody did something. Many states never closed at all. I know people who never social distanced. Of course, I won't see those people any time soon because I don't trust stupid.

I wouldn't say he was wrong. He was relying on that U Washington model at the time. It's all we had, and we knew little to nothing about this virus.

I suspect we will be learning more about the virus and its origins in the not-to-distant future, so long as the people in the know haven't been disappeared yet.

F China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 11, 2020, 03:43:26 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 11, 2020, 03:15:37 PM
Then there's Florida... Mostly SE, Tampa and Orlando areas.

SW Florida is doing very well. Smart people live there, like me and stuff.




(https://i.imgur.com/FjsZDoA.png)
I could rewrite your post as:  Population populations....population, population's population.  Population population, population.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 11, 2020, 03:47:37 PM
Dr. Fauci should not be blamed for a damn thing.

He knew there was nothing to say when we had no data.  But he had President Adolescence behind him making him say something.
He knew what the cautious, best practices would be, but was talking to the masses, who don't seem to understand what cautiousness is.

He shouldn't have agreed to do it.  But he cared enough to do something he didn't want to do and knew there'd be no way to do it successfully.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 11, 2020, 03:58:15 PM
I did want to ask - how many dead kids is acceptable? 

I understand that there's a sliding scale between being open and the economy humming along vs deaths here, and we can't have it at either end of the spectrum.  We can't keep the speed limit 5 mph on every road, I get it.
But we've been dealing with mostly old people and some adults down to college age.


But yeah, it's about to get real if we're about to send 50 million children into classrooms.  I know we're talking about tenths or hundredths of a percent perhaps, but I'd like to convert that to a whole number. 

How many dead children is acceptable?
1?
10?
100?
1,000?
10,000? - 10,000 dead kids is only 0.02% of 50 million
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 11, 2020, 04:22:02 PM
French students K-12 were back to school recently for two weeks, and now are out on break until September, as planned.  We might see what becomes of their experience, but of course they have managed to "mitigate" the virus to this point effectively.  It's still around though.

Staying "closed" longer does mitigate better, no doubt, but will the area under the curve be different?  Sweden, as often noted, has not been a massive disaster, worse than the neighbors, but still not a disaster.

Area under the curve, it's important.  Not overwhelming the health care system is critically important, and we're nearing that point in some states.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 11, 2020, 04:55:17 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 11, 2020, 03:47:37 PM
Dr. Fauci should not be blamed for a damn thing.  


Let me know when someone blames him.

And tone it down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 11, 2020, 05:01:34 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 11, 2020, 04:22:02 PM
  Sweden, as often noted, has not been a massive disaster, worse than the neighbors, but still not a disaster.
Per 100,000 people, Sweden has:
~4x the death rate of Denmark
~7x the death rate of Finland and Norway

Sweden's 35 deaths per 100,000 applied to the U.S. (24 deaths per 100K) would increase our dead from 137,000+ to 200,000.  

Sweden isn't a good model for anything but more dead people.  Sweden is what you'd have gotten if every state had a republican governor.  Get Sweden out of your head.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 11, 2020, 05:56:26 PM
As far as I can tell, Sweden kept schools open and had one coronavirus death for someone 19 or younger. (Feel free to double check those stats because they were difficult for me to figure out). The US has about 32× the population of Sweden.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 11, 2020, 07:22:56 PM
Sweden is not the massive disaster some predicted.  Optimal?  Ideal?

Maybe not, we will see.

Area under the curve.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 11, 2020, 10:01:47 PM
Sweden has a coherent long-term plan. It may not ultimately be as successful, death wise, as others, though it's premature to say right now. We have no coherent plan as a country - every state has some sort of plan. Some of them are coherent and some are not. In any event, there isn't a ton of evidence that opening schools is going to drastically impact kids.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 11, 2020, 10:23:14 PM
In any event the conversation should be geared towards what we are willing to accept and not accept. We've let our kids play with our neighbor's kids a few times. That's essentially. The only time they've interacted with other kids in months. And for them, got what? They have perhaps a 1 in a 500000 chance to die from the disease? How much should they sacrifice to prevent the deaths of older people, especially when there isn't much evidence they will cause appreciably more deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on July 11, 2020, 11:00:14 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 11, 2020, 03:58:15 PM


How many dead children is acceptable?


Idk. I’ve been wanting to ask this question of pro choice advocates for years, but I digress.  Look, no one wants one more death from this thing, especially if it’s a kid.

But will you do me a favor? If schools open and a kid dies just don’t blame anyone. Don’t be one of those people frothing at the mouth wanting to put blood on someone’s head.

There are no easy answers. There are no easy solutions.  There is a lot of Monday Morning Quarterbacking with this thing.  I’m sure leaders at every level would like a mulligan on some decisions that have been made or things said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 02:18:27 AM
The Monday morning quarterbacking is born of the masses and the leaders being allergic to saying, "I don't know."  Leaders won't say it because the masses won't accept it.  So some B.S. is constructed as a placeholder that may or may not turn out to be accurate.

It's Exhibit 9,829,034 of what makes our society embarrassing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 02:23:16 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on July 11, 2020, 10:01:47 PM
 In any event, there isn't a ton of evidence that opening schools is going to drastically impact kids.
No one has said a drastic impact.  But when you're talking a sample of 50,000,000 kids, a teeny-tiny % of them dying is still a bunch of kids.

So I guess the consensus here is that their deaths are acceptable, too.  Add their bodies to the scores of teachers and support staff then.  Multitudes more of their deaths - maybe it'll help minimalize the dead children.  Maybe cover their bodies up with the larger teachers...you know, so the local pizza shop can stay open.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 12, 2020, 07:23:52 AM
I don't know that it's about a pizza shop.  Does school have value?  If so, what is it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 12, 2020, 07:37:01 AM
All this has the value of allowing some to use the issue, or attempt to, as a political bludgeon.

Does anyone here think we can shut down nearly everything again?  Realistically?  The school issue is difficult, and I think there is no "right decision", but to think we can shut down public schools indefinitely strikes me as unrealistic.

I keep thinking about area under the curve.  We could delay the inevitable for a time, but I suspect it will grade out anywhere unless we nearly all wear masks in public and/or an effective vaccine is widely available.

I have some hope more people will wear a mask when needed, the vaccine issue is probably March before it is widely in use.  If we delay the school year, how long does that stay shuttered?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on July 12, 2020, 07:47:57 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 02:23:16 AM
No one has said a drastic impact.  But when you're talking a sample of 50,000,000 kids, a teeny-tiny % of them dying is still a bunch of kids.

So I guess the consensus here is that their deaths are acceptable, too.  Add their bodies to the scores of teachers and support staff then.  Multitudes more of their deaths - maybe it'll help minimalize the dead children.  Maybe cover their bodies up with the larger teachers...you know, so the local pizza shop can stay open.
But again, if you couch keeping schools closed in terms of “if it saves just one child’s life” then you are guilting the world into hiding in their houses forever.

For parents who feel the risk is too high they do have the option of staying home and home schooling them.  Same with teachers. They can open the schools but they can’t force you to go to work.  Everyone has a different level of risk they are willing to accept.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 12, 2020, 07:54:42 AM
The equation is difficult to balance.

Schooling is a positive for most.  Being grouped together has a significant risk of exposure to COVID (which could spread to parents and grandparents of course).

Do you attempt to have school with the best controlled environment possible or try and keep kids at home, not playing with friends, not playing soccer, pretty much not doing much of anything.  That has a cost as well.

If you delay school say 6 months, how is that made up?  Do seniors have to go to summer school next year in order to graduate?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 12, 2020, 10:09:07 AM
we are not the first country to open the schools 

several other countries have done so

are there any stats on this and/or info on what is working or what doesnt work
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 12, 2020, 10:10:02 AM
France opened schools for two weeks, but the current rate of new infections in France is very low comparatively.

They are now on break until September.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 12, 2020, 10:32:18 AM
Here is kinda what I was asking about

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/school-openings-across-globe-suggest-ways-keep-coronavirus-bay-despite-outbreaks (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/school-openings-across-globe-suggest-ways-keep-coronavirus-bay-despite-outbreaks)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 12, 2020, 10:40:55 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 02:23:16 AM
No one has said a drastic impact.  But when you're talking a sample of 50,000,000 kids, a teeny-tiny % of them dying is still a bunch of kids.

So I guess the consensus here is that their deaths are acceptable, too.  Add their bodies to the scores of teachers and support staff then.  Multitudes more of their deaths - maybe it'll help minimalize the dead children.  Maybe cover their bodies up with the larger teachers...you know, so the local pizza shop can stay open.
OAM, you have to understand that there is a reason for a balance. 

Just as nobody is suggesting that we furlough all the police or fire departments, or that we tell doctors and nurses that we should close all the hospitals, because there is significant social value to having certain essential services. How many deaths of our doctors and nurses are acceptable? 

What happens to those kids if we have a year entirely composed of distance learning? I can tell you as a father of three, their distance learning was nowhere near as complete as in-person education. For my 11 year old autistic child who needs more individualized instruction using specialized techniques? Distance learning was effing useless. That goes beyond all the negative social impacts from being out of school for the year. 

You talk about the "masses" with derision [which I get; I do it too]. What's going to happen to the students across the country when their parents--the "masses" you speak so critically of--have to be their substitute teacher for a year? 

Our youth won't be meaningfully hurt if the local pizza shop closes. They WILL be meaningfully hurt by a year without school. 

Oh, and for those adults who absolutely must physically go to work? Guess what, those kids might get exposed to COVID in their day care or whatever child care situation their parents have to put them in, but won't get the benefit of actually having a teacher instruct them during the day.

The questions is how can we quantify the risk of school, and is that risk larger than the reward of being in school? So far, the limited evidence suggests that as it relates to their own health, children are an extremely low-risk group. You say "multitudes" of deaths... But can you quantify that? Will it be higher or lower than the number of kids who die in car accidents on their way to/from school every year? While every death is a tragedy, are they at high enough risk that we're going to shunt every child's intellectual development by giving them a year off school?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 12, 2020, 10:43:32 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 12, 2020, 10:10:02 AM
France opened schools for two weeks, but the current rate of new infections in France is very low comparatively.

They are now on break until September.
On another subject, what is going to happen to Europe over the next two months of their traditional vacation time? 

July/August is usually when everything is closed and people flock to the coasts for vacation. A lot of their recent reopenings to travel within the Schengen Zone, from what I've read, seem to be to reignite tourism that shut down during COVID. 

Is the EU going to be seeing a resurgence over the next two months as people get complacent about having "beaten" COVID and go back to normal? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 12, 2020, 11:06:24 AM
OTOH imagine being a school administrator trying to figure this out and this is the advice you get:

https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1282303297932742665?s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 12, 2020, 11:10:43 AM
My notion is that you can suppress, but not eliminate, COVID by shutting down.  When you inevitably reopen, it simply comes back.

The exception to this seems to be some Asian countries where wearing a mask if socially demanded in public.

I don't know how many in France are wearing a mask when out and about.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 12, 2020, 11:19:39 AM
no different then the situation each governor is in
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 02:21:48 PM
I know it's a no-win situation.

bwarb, the "multitudes" were referencing the adults on school campuses.  

I'm a person who wants to teach in person, in classrooms, but sees that at this place (AZ) and in this time (now, when cases are insane), our leadership insisting on in-person schooling in a threatening manor is the last straw.  Betsy DeVos might be the only public figure I wouldn't bet money on beating Trump in a game of checkers.  Look her up, she's lived her entire life in an alternate reality, truly.  And President Dumble-Orange appointed her to the Sec.of Ed.  There are not enough face-palms in the world.  

If I was, say, governor of AZ, I'd probably propose a quarter-by-quarter checkpoint system, as a growing number of individual school districts are doing here.  As the national leader has absconded responsibility, and our governor has done the same, it's fallen onto the superintendents and school boards to act like adults.  School boards are made up of regular citizens, btw.  
Online-only schooling for the first quarter, then check and see how conditions are.  If they're not improving/falling, go another quarter.  

Maybe I'm a big pansy, but I'm not okay with throwing big numbers and tiny percentages around and being okay with thousands or tens of thousands of little kids dying from this.  There's a meme making the rounds on facebook about this - saying:  Teachers are not responsible for the recovery of the economy, babysitting children, or "getting us back to normal."  Stop trying to guilt us into risking our lives for the government's failure to act.

Oh, oh, do I get to share my sample size of one now?  Everyone else gets to.  
I had a student beat leukemia 2 years ago.  I had to tutor her in her home after school 3x a week, because her immune system couldn't handle the germs of a classroom.  It sucked, it was hard.  There were days I'd show up and she couldn't stay awake or get out of bed for our session.  She was super stressed, obviously, and yes, kids not going to school mimic her situation of being surrounded by the same few adults all day and no fun time with other kids (minus the chemo).  But she beat it, started coming to school with a mask, and enjoying 'normal.'  
And yes, she was behind.  She's still low.  So I fully understand both sides of this.  
But her life, especially, has been over during all this.  Not over as in dying, but over as in interacting with the outside world.  I'm certain she's stir-crazy x 10.  

But here's my bottom line.
I want in-person schooling very badly.
I know first-hand how detrimental not going to school is for our children, both socially and academically.
And yet still, mandating in-person schooling is absurd.

I'm not at all worried about my well-being, but I know the math and I'm unwilling to sacrifice some number of child deaths and some much larger number of teacher/staff deaths.  

What I'd say to fellow posters here is:  consider the source of those blindly pushing for in-person schooling.  Trump and DeVos.  Trump knows the economy cannot rebound unless adults are freed up to go back to work, and they aren't freed up to do so unless their kids are at school.  Trump knows he cannot be re-elected unless the economy rebounds.  This is the lone, sole reason for his push for in-person schooling.  

If you don't understand this to be true, just block me. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 12, 2020, 02:49:23 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 11, 2020, 09:33:48 AM
so, masks and social distancing aren't going to fix this

I'm guessing this won't get fixed
Not if people won't wear masks and won't social distance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 12, 2020, 02:57:21 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 02:21:48 PM
I know it's a no-win situation.

bwarb, the "multitudes" were referencing the adults on school campuses. 


What I'd say to fellow posters here is:  consider the source of those blindly pushing for in-person schooling.  Trump and DeVos.  Trump knows the economy cannot rebound unless adults are freed up to go back to work, and they aren't freed up to do so unless their kids are at school.  Trump knows he cannot be re-elected unless the economy rebounds.  This is the lone, sole reason for his push for in-person schooling. 

If you don't understand this to be true, just block me.
The exact same thing could be said in reverse about you

You have a right to your beliefs and Im sure you dont want the economy to collapse just to get Trump out of office

just like Im sure Trump doesnt want to kill people just to get reelected

cant we just go back to the virus as the subject of this thread instead of bashing Trump

thank you for your support
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 12, 2020, 02:57:28 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 11, 2020, 07:22:56 PM
Sweden is not the massive disaster some predicted.  Optimal?  Ideal?

Maybe not, we will see.

Area under the curve.
Well, Sweden's death toll is much worse than its neighbors' death tolls.  AND Sweden's economy isn't doing much if any better than its neighbors' economies are doing.
We live in a global economy.  Unless a country is completely self-sufficient (and none are), then its going to suffer significant economic damage no matter what pandemic policy it follows.  Or doesn't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 12, 2020, 03:00:07 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 02:18:27 AM
The Monday morning quarterbacking is born of the masses and the leaders being allergic to saying, "I don't know."  Leaders won't say it because the masses won't accept it.  So some B.S. is constructed as a placeholder that may or may not turn out to be accurate.

It's Exhibit 9,829,034 of what makes our society embarrassing.
Just curious.  Where would you rather live?

Pick a better country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 03:07:03 PM
Oh dear god.....you're one of the people who think the U.S. is the best country in the world?



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 03:08:05 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 12, 2020, 03:00:07 PM
Just curious.  Where would you rather live?

Pick a better country.
Flushing toilets and cell phone coverage makes the U.S. much better than freedom or McDonalds does, btw.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 03:08:43 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 12, 2020, 02:57:28 PM
Well, Sweden's death toll is much worse than its neighbors' death tolls. AND Sweden's economy isn't doing much if any better than its neighbors' economies are doing.
We live in a global economy.  Unless a country is completely self-sufficient (and none are), then its going to suffer significant economic damage no matter what pandemic policy it follows.  Or doesn't.
This is the hush-hush half of us doesn't want to accept.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 12, 2020, 03:11:48 PM
So, reading through the last 20 pages or so of this thread, I see much uncertainty about what we know about COVID-19.

But here's what we do know.  Wearing masks reduces the transmission of the disease.  Social distancing reduces the transmission of the disease.

So, "leaders" who signal by their words or deeds that wearing masks and social distancing is unnecessary, or ridiculous, or cowardly, are doing positive harm.  They are helping to spread the disease.  They are increasing the numbers of the sick and the dead.

As are the people who follow that sort of guidance, and so refuse to mask, refuse to social distance, and call those who do those things fear-mongers and cowards.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 12, 2020, 03:12:25 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 03:07:03 PM
Oh dear god.....you're one of the people who think the U.S. is the best country in the world?
Yep.

Pick a better one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 12, 2020, 03:15:17 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 12, 2020, 03:00:07 PM
Just curious.  Where would you rather live?

Pick a better country.
Could it be I mean this is just a wild ass off the wall guess but could it be OAM does not love America
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 03:34:14 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 12, 2020, 02:57:21 PM
The exact same thing could be said in reverse about you
huh?
You have a right to your beliefs and Im sure you dont want the economy to collapse just to get Trump out of office
No, but I value lives over money (while acknowledging there's an overlap)
just like Im sure Trump doesnt want to kill people just to get reelected
depends who they're voting for
cant we just go back to the virus as the subject of this thread instead of bashing Trump
they're related, but shouldn't be
thank you for your support
I support your voicing your opinions and that's about all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 03:36:05 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 12, 2020, 03:12:25 PM
Yep.

Pick a better one.
"Better" without an agreed-upon rubric is just personal preference...and thus, I couldn't be considered incorrect by anyone, lol.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 03:37:25 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 12, 2020, 03:15:17 PM
Could it be I mean this is just a wild ass off the wall guess but could it be OAM does not love America
If I didn't love America, then I wouldn't be honest about it and want to improve it.  If I didn't love America, I would just talk trash about it and move.  

Your attacks aren't prudent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 03:41:51 PM
I prefer to live in the U.S. because everyone I know and love lives here, too.  
But there are dozens of other countries that have the good of America and less of the bad.  We all know this.  

I'd probably be perfectly fine living in any country that isn't a dictatorship, doesn't have a theocratic government, and isn't so impoverished that I can't get consistent clean water and electricity.  I think any of us would live perfectly enjoyable lives in such countries.  

So yeah, that's definitely dozens of countries.  I'd probably lean towards a warmer climate with a coast.  How about you guys?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 12, 2020, 03:54:33 PM
Interestingly, the wife does not want to live in France.  Her words were "No way".  Her reasons are varied, but she obviously prefers it here.  I think folks here don't perhaps appreciate how complex it is in France to buy and sell a house, or even a car, compared with here, or how much basic items cost versus here, or how hard it can be to get a driver's license or do any mundane thing that involves government.

We like to visit, in part because we have many friends and two daughters who live there.  Our friends who lived here to a one say they would have stayed in the US except for family in France.  It's interesting chatting with them about the pros and cons of living in the two countries, and of course it's not all cons.  Our son in law is American and prefers France while our daughter who is French prefers America.  She says she would move here in a heartbeat, he won't.  A lot of that is their version of social security into which he has paid quite a bit and of course has not drawn anything out.

Anyway, I believe one can make do in any "civilized" country, but there would be ups and downs and unexpected pluses and minuses, but I can say our general standard of living here is significantly higher than peers in France who had the same kind of job, same as with England.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 12, 2020, 03:58:48 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 03:37:25 PM
If I didn't love America, then I wouldn't be honest about it and want to improve it.  If I didn't love America, I would just talk trash about it and move. 

Your attacks aren't prudent.
well nothing I do is prudent OAM

If you love America try a compliment every now and then instead of trash talking it all the time

This is the greatest country on earth and you should thank your lucky stars your a citizen (I assume) of it

the USA aint perfect and has plenty of faults but its good far out way the bad

God bless this country
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 12, 2020, 04:31:50 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 03:37:25 PM
If I didn't love America, then I wouldn't be honest about it and want to improve it.  If I didn't love America, I would just talk trash about it and move. 

Your attacks aren't prudent.
You want to improve it how?

I gave what I believe was some sound ideas on the Stream thread, which is where this conversation belongs, by the way. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 12, 2020, 05:02:21 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 12, 2020, 03:15:17 PM
Could it be I mean this is just a wild ass off the wall guess but could it be OAM does not love America
I don't love America.

I love many things about America, but I do not subscribe to blind patriotism. Maybe it's because I grew up in Europe, and I have experience with other countries.

I find the pledge of allegiance creepy, too.  Such a weird experience seeing that for the first time. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 12, 2020, 05:06:26 PM
I too am a bit uncomfortable with the phrase "love America".  I don't quite understand what is meant by it, and I think the meaning varies.

I was born here, I'm proud of our accomplishments, I want the place to be better, I celebrate when good things happen, and despair when bad things happen.

I like where we live, we enjoy it, I wouldn't say I love it, except in the most casual way.  I like the state, it's fine, it has issues.  I like visiting out west a lot.  I'd like to travel a lot more than I have, and we have plans to do that, I'm fascinated with other cultures and ways of doing things.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 12, 2020, 05:13:43 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 12, 2020, 05:02:21 PM
I don't love America.

I love many things about America, but I do not subscribe to blind patriotism. Maybe it's because I grew up in Europe, and I have experience with other countries.

I find the pledge of allegiance creepy, too.  Such a weird experience seeing that for the first time. 

and yet here you are
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 05:14:31 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 12, 2020, 05:02:21 PM
I don't love America.

I love many things about America, but I do not subscribe to blind patriotism. Maybe it's because I grew up in Europe, and I have experience with other countries.

I find the pledge of allegiance creepy, too.  Such a weird experience seeing that for the first time. 

Blind patriotism is a great way to guarantee nothing improves.  It attempts to keep everything static, and thus, no progress happens.  Blind patriotism hurts the country.

The Pledge of Allegiance is fine, except for the "under god' part, which was inserted in the 50s in an odd reaction to communism.  Utterly vapid.  

Having students do it every day is indoctrination, though.  It works, just look at our friend, longhorn.  I'd be for having students say it maybe the first day of the school year only.  That would make some sense to me.  But look at it - if you're a kid and you come to school every day, from kindergarten to 12th grade, you've said the pledge 2,340 times.  Probably half of those times, before you had the knowledge and wherewithal to even question the behavior and actions of your own country and to consider the possibility it isn't great.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 12, 2020, 05:16:55 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 12, 2020, 05:06:26 PM
I too am a bit uncomfortable with the phrase "love America".  I don't quite understand what is meant by it, and I think the meaning varies.

I was born here, I'm proud of our accomplishments, I want the place to be better, I celebrate when good things happen, and despair when bad things happen.

I like where we live, we enjoy it, I wouldn't say I love it, except in the most casual way.  I like the state, it's fine, it has issues.  I like visiting out west a lot.  I'd like to travel a lot more than I have, and we have plans to do that, I'm fascinated with other cultures and ways of doing things.
you feel uncomfortable with the phrase "love America"?

of all the folks on this thread including CW you are one of the last people I thought would ever say that

wow learn new things every day
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 12, 2020, 05:29:52 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 05:14:31 PM
Blind patriotism is a great way to guarantee nothing improves.  It attempts to keep everything static, and thus, no progress happens.  Blind patriotism hurts the country.

The Pledge of Allegiance is fine, except for the "under god' part, which was inserted in the 50s in an odd reaction to communism.  Utterly vapid. 

Having students do it every day is indoctrination, though.  It works, just look at our friend, longhorn.  I'd be for having students say it maybe the first day of the school year only.  That would make some sense to me.  But look at it - if you're a kid and you come to school every day, from kindergarten to 12th grade, you've said the pledge 2,340 times.  Probably half of those times, before you had the knowledge and wherewithal to even question the behavior and actions of your own country and to consider the possibility it isn't great.


what about standing and singing the national anthem does that bother you OAM



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 12, 2020, 06:02:55 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 12, 2020, 05:16:55 PM
you feel uncomfortable with the phrase "love America"?

Yes, a bit, as I said, because I don't understand what is meant by the term.  I try not to be a blinded patriot, my country right or wrong.

I suppose in my old age I have turned away from some of the stuff we were fed as youth.  I find it useful to challenge assumptions, my own in particular.

Useful, but at times uncomfortable.  What does it mean to love one's country?  Does it refer to the general populace?  I think the people in this country generally are pretty solid folks, unlike some who seem to try and diminish them in nearly every post perhaps.  I think other countries have good things, and bad, about them.  I don't especially "love" any other country, I admire some aspects of many countries.  I choose to live here.  I recognize that focusing entirely on the bad makes one likely to think somewhere else is better, and I tend to think that is not the case, somewhere else would be different.

I wish a lot of things were different, but I've come to grips with the simple fact that wishing something won't make it any truer than not wishing it.

I am amazed how often someone else will say "This SHOULD happen".  Well, OK then, maybe so, but it's not happening, can you change it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on July 12, 2020, 06:09:42 PM
If you think that opening the economy is solely about getting Trump re-elected then you are letting your hatred for him override good common sense.

There are many valid reasons to open the economy. Millions of Americans are asking for it to happen and helping Trump’s re-election is pretty far down on their list of reasons why.

Asking questions like “how many dead children are acceptable” is gaslighting the discussion. We don’t need that. Someone could ask “How many livelihoods do we destroy to save the lives of 80 somethings who have one foot in the grave anyway?” That question is just as overly dramatic and overly simplified as the other one.

Everybody knows there is a risk associated with opening up schools.  The consequences could be dire for some. No one is denying that.  People can make their own individual choices regarding that. Parents can make other arrangements for their children. Teachers can take sick leave, retire, quit, find other employment, etc.

The situation sucks. There isn’t a right answer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 12, 2020, 06:11:56 PM
Nobody should expect anyone to be a blind patriot 

in fact what makes this country great is the fact most of us arent blind patriots


criticism of ones country is not bad unless your motive is not to improve your country but rather to tear it down


showing respect for our flag is not bad either


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 12, 2020, 06:14:22 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on July 12, 2020, 06:09:42 PM
If you think that opening the economy is solely about getting Trump re-elected then you are letting your hatred for him override good common sense.

There are many valid reasons to open the economy. Millions of Americans are asking for it to happen and helping Trump’s re-election is pretty far down on their list of reasons why.

Asking questions like “how many dead children are acceptable” is gaslighting the discussion. We don’t need that. Someone could ask “How many livelihoods do we destroy to save the lives of 80 somethings who have one foot in the grave anyway?” That question is just as overly dramatic and overly simplified as the other one.

Everybody knows there is a risk associated with opening up schools.  The consequences could be dire for some. No one is denying that.  People can make their own individual choices regarding that. Parents can make other arrangements for their children. Teachers can take sick leave, retire, quit, find other employment, etc.

The situation sucks. There isn’t a right answer.
very well put Kris
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 12, 2020, 07:42:42 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 03:41:51 PM
I prefer to live in the U.S. because everyone I know and love lives here, too. 
But there are dozens of other countries that have the good of America and less of the bad.  We all know this. 

I'd probably be perfectly fine living in any country that isn't a dictatorship, doesn't have a theocratic government, and isn't so impoverished that I can't get consistent clean water and electricity.  I think any of us would live perfectly enjoyable lives in such countries. 

So yeah, that's definitely dozens of countries.  I'd probably lean towards a warmer climate with a coast.  How about you guys?
We don't "all know this."
Pick a better country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 12, 2020, 07:53:49 PM
I think a really strong tax credit for living in integrated neighborhoods could be worth exploring. The clearest issue with poverty and race is that black people have a very difficult time moving up the social class over time because white people leave when they get there. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 12, 2020, 07:55:24 PM
Love of country is not blindness to its flaws.  I dearly love my wife, but I do not think that she is without flaws.  I imagine (and hope) that she feels the same about me.

Love of country means you care about it in a way that goes beyond liking where you live and who your friends are.  It means that you are willing to work for its betterment, that when push comes to shove, you favor its welfare rather than its enemies' welfare.

It means you would be willing to give something of yourself, something that might be difficult, disgusting, or even dangerous.

It means that you give your fellow-countrymen the benefit of the doubt.  You can't love America and hate or despise half of the people who live here.

Love of country is literally patriotism.  Or maybe I should put it the other way, patriotism is love of country.

There has never been a country, or even a club, in the world that was without flaws.  We are wrong if we believe that our country is uniquely flawed, or even more flawed than most.  But it is, of course, flawed, like all human creations.

That shouldn't preclude us loving it.

If we love our country, we should gladly, willingly, voluntarily sacrifice our comfort just a bit by wearing masks and social-distancing.  For the benefit of our fellow-countrymen, even if we don't think it's necessary for ourselves.

JMODMIR
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 12, 2020, 07:57:27 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on July 12, 2020, 07:53:49 PM
I think a really strong tax credit for living in integrated neighborhoods could be worth exploring. The clearest issue with poverty and race is that black people have a very difficult time moving up the social class over time because white people leave when they get there.
There would be many knotty problems with that, beyond the whole social-engineering problem.  Who counts as black?  Who counts as white?  How do Asians count?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 12, 2020, 08:00:17 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 12, 2020, 07:57:27 PM
There would be many knotty problems with that, beyond the whole social-engineering problem.  Who counts as black?  Who counts as white?  How do Asians count?
Say a neighborhood has over 20 percent black people in it. Everyone in the neighborhood gets 10 grand. Don't have to worry about whites and Asians that way. Would have to figure a system to decide who is black. But the Confederates did it so I think we can.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 08:01:28 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 12, 2020, 05:29:52 PM
what about standing and singing the national anthem does that bother you OAM
None of it bothers me.  Sing away.  That's about as far from the pledge as you can get, though.  One is traditionally sang before optional sporting events, commemorating the battle to keep our new country and the other is a daily indoctrination at required schooling as an oath, sprinkled with words they don't understand.

No one should be taking an oath before they understand what the oath is actually saying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 08:06:15 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 12, 2020, 07:55:24 PM
Love of country is not blindness to its flaws.  I dearly love my wife, but I do not think that she is without flaws.  I imagine (and hope) that she feels the same about me.

Love of country means you care about it in a way that goes beyond liking where you live and who your friends are.  It means that you are willing to work for its betterment, that when push comes to shove, you favor its welfare rather than its enemies' welfare.

It means you would be willing to give something of yourself, something that might be difficult, disgusting, or even dangerous.

It means that you give your fellow-countrymen the benefit of the doubt.  You can't love America and hate or despise half of the people who live here.

Love of country is literally patriotism.  Or maybe I should put it the other way, patriotism is love of country.

There has never been a country, or even a club, in the world that was without flaws.  We are wrong if we believe that our country is uniquely flawed, or even more flawed than most.  But it is, of course, flawed, like all human creations.

That shouldn't preclude us loving it.

If we love our country, we should gladly, willingly, voluntarily sacrifice our comfort just a bit by wearing masks and social-distancing.  For the benefit of our fellow-countrymen, even if we don't think it's necessary for ourselves.

JMODMIR
I don't think any of that is disagreeable, except giving fellow countrymen the benefit of the doubt.  A random American is no more honest or trustworthy than the average Mexican or Norwegian or Indonesian.  I give evidence the benefit of the doubt, because it removes doubt.

Anyway, the possible problem with your post is something like the war in Iraq.  We attacked a country that had nothing to do with 9/11.  That was objectively wrong.  I'm no less patriotic for saying it's wrong and for wanted it to stop immediately.  The person who figures hey, we're there, you're only patriotic if you cheer for us to "win" - whatever that meant - is a baffoon.  I'm not saying you've suggested that.  

Pretending that your country is more ethical or moral that its actions suggest is not patriotism.  It's simply silliness.  Do you disagree?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 08:07:22 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 12, 2020, 06:11:56 PM
Nobody should expect anyone to be a blind patriot

in fact what makes this country great is the fact most of us arent blind patriots


criticism of ones country is not bad unless your motive is not to improve your country but rather to tear it down


showing respect for our flag is not bad either

What if your motive is improvement, and you focus on actions over symbols?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 08:09:44 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on July 12, 2020, 06:09:42 PM
If you think that opening the economy is solely about getting Trump re-elected then you are letting your hatred for him override good common sense.

There are many valid reasons to open the economy. Millions of Americans are asking for it to happen and helping Trump’s re-election is pretty far down on their list of reasons why.
Right, but you're concerning yourself with what millions of people want (correct me if I'm wrong) and my post concerned itself with what Trump wants and what's motivating him, personally.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 12, 2020, 08:10:57 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 08:07:22 PM
What if your motive is improvement, and you focus on actions over symbols? 
you need to give me an example cause Im not sure what you mean by symbols
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 12, 2020, 08:20:16 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 08:09:44 PM
Right, but you're concerning yourself with what millions of people want (correct me if I'm wrong) and my post concerned itself with what Trump wants and what's motivating him, personally.
the point being made is that the only thing that matters is whats best for the country not what you think is in someones mind

if you cant get Trump out of your head which is where he wants to be youre gonna be a very sad person the next four years
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 12, 2020, 08:35:37 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 12, 2020, 07:42:42 PM
We don't "all know this."
Pick a better country.
Ok, I'll bite.

What standard shall we use?  I'll just pick some.

Happiness?  USA ranks 19th.
Per Capita median income?  USA ranks 6th
Population incarcerated?  USA is far and away #1
Safety?  USA ranked 128th
Freedom of the press?  USA ranked 45th
Life Expectancy?  USA ranked 46th
Human Freedom Index (This one by the Heritage foundation):  USA ranked 17th
Quality of life:  USA ranked 15th
Pollution index:  USA ranked 22
Traffic Commute time:  USA ranked 32
Property price to income ratio:  USA ranked 3
Cost of Living Index:  USA ranked 67
Health Care Index:  USA ranked 30

I live here, I like it here, but I am far from certain that this is the best country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 12, 2020, 08:37:44 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 12, 2020, 07:55:24 PM
Love of country is not blindness to its flaws.  I dearly love my wife, but I do not think that she is without flaws.  I imagine (and hope) that she feels the same about me.

Love of country means you care about it in a way that goes beyond liking where you live and who your friends are.  It means that you are willing to work for its betterment, that when push comes to shove, you favor its welfare rather than its enemies' welfare.

It means you would be willing to give something of yourself, something that might be difficult, disgusting, or even dangerous.

It means that you give your fellow-countrymen the benefit of the doubt.  You can't love America and hate or despise half of the people who live here.

Love of country is literally patriotism.  Or maybe I should put it the other way, patriotism is love of country.

There has never been a country, or even a club, in the world that was without flaws.  We are wrong if we believe that our country is uniquely flawed, or even more flawed than most.  But it is, of course, flawed, like all human creations.

That shouldn't preclude us loving it.

If we love our country, we should gladly, willingly, voluntarily sacrifice our comfort just a bit by wearing masks and social-distancing.  For the benefit of our fellow-countrymen, even if we don't think it's necessary for ourselves.

JMODMIR
This is a much more eloquent way of putting it.

So my last couple of posts, go ahead and just substitute this.  Thanks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on July 12, 2020, 08:41:43 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 08:09:44 PM
Right, but you're concerning yourself with what millions of people want (correct me if I'm wrong) and my post concerned itself with what Trump wants and what's motivating him, personally.
And you are working under the assumption you know what is motivating his decisions. Look, you don’t have to convince me of most of what you think are Trump’s character flaws. I’d agree with you most of the time.

Would a restored economy help his re-election chances? Sure, probably.  But I also think he genuinely believes it’s the best decision and I don’t think he is taking the risks lightly.  A crap economy helps his political adversaries but I hope they aren’t at home rooting for unemployment, alcoholism, domestic abuse, and suicides to all go up just because they would personally benefit from it.

I honestly feel for him and every governor, mayor, school official, and whoever else is tasked with making these decisions. 

I just get tired of all the second guessing. I’m with you. I wish a politician could be truthful and say, “I honestly don’t know if this is the best decision but this is what we are going to do and why.” But that would be a sound byte on every political ad of their opponents forever.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 08:56:48 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 12, 2020, 08:10:57 PM
you need to give me an example cause Im not sure what you mean by symbols
The flag is a symbol.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 08:59:22 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 12, 2020, 08:35:37 PM


I live here, I like it here, but I am far from certain that this is the best country.

I'm quite certain it's not the best.  AND THAT'S OKAY!

Why is the argument always about the U.S. being #1????  It's somehow a crime to suggest maybe the U.S. is 7th best or 3rd or 20th.  
Why?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 09:03:40 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on July 12, 2020, 08:41:43 PM
And you are working under the assumption you know what is motivating his decisions. Look, you don’t have to convince me of most of what you think are Trump’s character flaws. I’d agree with you most of the time.

Would a restored economy help his re-election chances? Sure, probably.  But I also think he genuinely believes it’s the best decision and I don’t think he is taking the risks lightly.  
A restored economy is all he has.  There is no other route to his victory in November.  
I assume he takes every risk lightly, because he has no concept of accountability or consequences.  He bullies his way out of problems....or ignores them....or calls someone a name. 
This isn't about hating Trump, it's about observing 3.5 years of words and actions and applying them to today.  

The whole impeachment was about the simple fact that Trump puts his own, individual interests ahead of the country's.  Period.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on July 12, 2020, 09:06:42 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 12, 2020, 08:35:37 PM
Ok, I'll bite.

What standard shall we use?  I'll just pick some.

Happiness?  USA ranks 19th.
Per Capita median income?  USA ranks 6th
Population incarcerated?  USA is far and away #1
Safety?  USA ranked 128th
Freedom of the press?  USA ranked 45th
Life Expectancy?  USA ranked 46th
Human Freedom Index (This one by the Heritage foundation):  USA ranked 17th
Quality of life:  USA ranked 15th
Pollution index:  USA ranked 22
Traffic Commute time:  USA ranked 32
Property price to income ratio:  USA ranked 3
Cost of Living Index:  USA ranked 67
Health Care Index:  USA ranked 30

I live here, I like it here, but I am far from certain that this is the best country.

That’s not really answering the question though. That’s just listing where the US ranks in various categories.  I guess you would have to come up with a composite score from all those rankings to determine best.

Idk. I’m probably the least well traveled person on here.  It just seems like to me the US has more immigrants trying to make this their new home than most other countries. Has to be a reason for that, right?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 12, 2020, 09:10:06 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 09:03:40 PM
A restored economy is all he has.  There is no other route to his victory in November. 
I assume he takes every risk lightly, because he has no concept of accountability or consequences.  He bullies his way out of problems....or ignores them....or calls someone a name.
This isn't about hating Trump, it's about observing 3.5 years of words and actions and applying them to today. 

The whole impeachment was about the simple fact that Trump puts his own, individual interests ahead of the country's.  Period. 
No.   I talk to a lot of people who don’t like him at all, but plan to vote for him specifically because they can’t stand the thought the left and what the think they bring to the table.  Horrible things.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 09:10:33 PM
Outdated propaganda is my guess.  The idea of America, I dare say, is a lot better than the reality of it.  You've got foreign doctors and lawyers coming here and winding up cab drivers and telemarketers.  

But they have AC in their crummy apartment, so it's not all bad.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 09:11:27 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 12, 2020, 09:10:06 PM
No.  I talk to a lot of people who don’t like him at all, but plan to vote for him specifically because they can’t stand the thought the left and what the think they bring to the table.  Horrible things. 
Horrible, awful things!  The scary, blue boogey-man!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on July 12, 2020, 09:20:42 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 09:10:33 PM
Outdated propaganda is my guess.  The idea of America, I dare say, is a lot better than the reality of it.  You've got foreign doctors and lawyers coming here and winding up cab drivers and telemarketers. 

But they have AC in their crummy apartment, so it's not all bad. 
So go back to being a doctor and lawyer in your home country, right?  I mean if they get here and they realize it was propaganda there is nothing to keep them here toiling in this hell on earth we call the United States.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 09:24:22 PM
Here we go again.  Just suggest the US isn't a clear #1, and you've said it's "hell on earth."  


You, and others, are guilty of perpetuating this polarized conversation.  All or nothing.  Love 'Murcia or get the fuck out, right!?

I need to get back to printing and cutting anyway.  Have at it, fellas.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on July 12, 2020, 09:36:47 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 09:24:22 PM
Here we go again.  Just suggest the US isn't a clear #1, and you've said it's "hell on earth." 


You, and others, are guilty of perpetuating this polarized conversation.  All or nothing.  Love 'Murcia or get the fuck out, right!?

I need to get back to printing and cutting anyway.  Have at it, fellas. 
Lmao. You deal in  sarcasm as much as anyone on here so don’t go clutching your pearls when you are on the receiving end of it.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on July 12, 2020, 09:44:22 PM
My guess is the propaganda comes from our own news and the problems this country has overshadow the wealth of opportunities it provides.

Riots get bigger ratings than “Up next, the US is still pretty awesome.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 12, 2020, 09:49:06 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 09:11:27 PM
Horrible, awful things!  The scary, blue boogey-man!!!
No.  Just people like you.  And those who are on a violent rampage, anarchists, terrorists, you know. 


hypocrite much.  Your so scared of orange man bad!   You should move to one of the other countries you keep bragging about.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 12, 2020, 09:49:16 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on July 12, 2020, 09:06:42 PM
That’s not really answering the question though. That’s just listing where the US ranks in various categories.  I guess you would have to come up with a composite score from all those rankings to determine best.

Idk. I’m probably the least well traveled person on here.  It just seems like to me the US has more immigrants trying to make this their new home than most other countries. Has to be a reason for that, right?
Probably, because it is the biggest.  No, really.

Migration rate per capita is a different story.  USA ranks 36.

I lived in Germany and Italy, my in-laws are Canadian.  All 3 of those countries are wonderful, too. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 12, 2020, 09:49:42 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 12, 2020, 06:14:22 PM
very well put Kris
Post of the month, yes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 09:51:51 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on July 12, 2020, 09:44:22 PM
My guess is the propaganda comes from our own news and the problems this country has overshadow the wealth of opportunities it provides.

Riots get bigger ratings than “Up next, the US is still pretty awesome.”
I blame Kenny Powers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 12, 2020, 09:52:56 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 12, 2020, 08:35:37 PM
Ok, I'll bite.

What standard shall we use?  I'll just pick some.

Happiness?  USA ranks 19th.
Per Capita median income?  USA ranks 6th
Population incarcerated?  USA is far and away #1
Safety?  USA ranked 128th
Freedom of the press?  USA ranked 45th
Life Expectancy?  USA ranked 46th
Human Freedom Index (This one by the Heritage foundation):  USA ranked 17th
Quality of life:  USA ranked 15th
Pollution index:  USA ranked 22
Traffic Commute time:  USA ranked 32
Property price to income ratio:  USA ranked 3
Cost of Living Index:  USA ranked 67
Health Care Index:  USA ranked 30

I live here, I like it here, but I am far from certain that this is the best country.
All according to who and where? Source?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 12, 2020, 09:56:53 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 12, 2020, 09:49:42 PM
Post of the month, yes.
I think we all agree with him.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 12, 2020, 09:59:28 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 12, 2020, 09:52:56 PM
All according to who and where? Source?
No way am I looking all those up again.

Feel free to Google them though.  You won't see USA on top no matter the source.  (except incarceration rate...)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 12, 2020, 10:13:09 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on July 12, 2020, 08:00:17 PM
Say a neighborhood has over 20 percent black people in it. Everyone in the neighborhood gets 10 grand. Don't have to worry about whites and Asians that way. Would have to figure a system to decide who is black. But the Confederates did it so I think we can.
The Confederates were in the wrong.  That's why we are glad that their way of thinking was defeated and discredited.

Our ideal is that all people are created with equal rights (and responsibilities) before the law.  We can't even get close to reaching that ideal when we qualify people by their percentage of ancestry from this that or the other continent, even for what we think are good purposes.
I'd be for some sort of reparations for people whose parents, grandparents, whatever were unable to buy houses or in any other way denied opportunities to prosper due to government policies.  But not "black people" in general, because that would include people like Barack Obama who have not suffered from any government policies that discriminated against African Americans.
Every government program has unintended consequences.  Sometimes the unintended consequences are worse than the good that is accomplished.
We really ought to take this conversation to the Stream thread, as this one is ostensibly for discussion of issues related to COVID-19.
We had our first minor die of COVID-19 in Oklahoma today.  Or maybe it was yesterday, and is just now being reported.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 12, 2020, 10:16:50 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 12, 2020, 10:13:09 PM
We really ought to take this conversation to the Stream thread, as this one is ostensibly for discussion of issues related to COVID-19.

Yes. Now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 12, 2020, 10:25:29 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 12, 2020, 09:59:28 PM
No way am I looking all those up again.

Feel free to Google them though.  You won't see USA on top no matter the source.  (except incarceration rate...)


WTF????

If you're gonna post something, then you're gonna cite your references.

It's not OUR job to substantiate your claims.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 12, 2020, 10:28:13 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 12, 2020, 10:25:29 PM
WTF????

If you're gonna post something, then you're gonna cite your references.

It's not OUR job to substantiate your claims.
Yeah, I screwed up by not including sources. 

Maybe I'll do it tomorrow.  Maybe I decide yinz should just trust me. haha
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 12, 2020, 10:29:16 PM
Positive news for the day: NYC goes without a COVID death for the first time since the pandemic started.

That's amazing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 12, 2020, 10:30:13 PM
JFC what happened to this thread???

I take a week off from you assholes and you send it to shit?

Nope.

Political bullshit goes somewhere else.  Same for ad hominem attacks and other stupid bullshittery.  I'm here for a week before I'm gone for another.  And believe me, that week off from some of your dumbassery was magical.  But I'll continue to correct it and fix it until I'm gone again.

You're welcome.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 12, 2020, 10:31:48 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on July 12, 2020, 10:28:13 PM
Yeah, I screwed up by not including sources.

Maybe I'll do it tomorrow.  Maybe I decide yinz should just trust me. haha
Nope.

Start citing, and prepare for discourse, and also... maybe shelve your self-loathing for a bit.  It's showing.  Badly.

Get on with it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 12, 2020, 10:37:07 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 12, 2020, 10:30:13 PM
JFC what happened to this thread???

I take a week off from you assholes and you send it to shit?

Nope.

Political bullshit goes somewhere else.  Same for ad hominem attacks and other stupid bullshittery.  I'm here for a week before I'm gone for another.  And believe me, that week off from some of your dumbassery was magical.  But I'll continue to correct it and fix it until I'm gone again.

You're welcome.

next time you take a week off will you take OAM with you
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 12, 2020, 10:39:46 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 12, 2020, 10:37:07 PM
next time you take a week off will you take OAM with you
Eh, that's some minor stuff.  I'm most worried about what I see being stated by some of the actual smart people around here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 12, 2020, 10:41:00 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 08:06:15 PM
I don't think any of that is disagreeable, except giving fellow countrymen the benefit of the doubt.  A random American is no more honest or trustworthy than the average Mexican or Norwegian or Indonesian.  I give evidence the benefit of the doubt, because it removes doubt.

Anyway, the possible problem with your post is something like the war in Iraq.  We attacked a country that had nothing to do with 9/11.  That was objectively wrong.  I'm no less patriotic for saying it's wrong and for wanted it to stop immediately.  The person who figures hey, we're there, you're only patriotic if you cheer for us to "win" - whatever that meant - is a baffoon.  I'm not saying you've suggested that. 

Pretending that your country is more ethical or moral that than its actions suggest is not patriotism.  It's simply silliness.  Do you disagree?
I don't disagree.

Further, calling out its wrongs is not necessarily unpatriotic.  Martin Luther King was not unpatriotic.  He called us out for not living up to our founding creed.  That's the deal.  Our founding creed was something that had never existed in the world.  We have often not lived up to it, because we are flawed human beings and it is a very high ideal, but its existence gave power to MLK's protests.

Hoping the soldier on the other side kills our soldier (which you did not say, but many people did during the Vietnam War and perhaps since) is unpatriotic.  Saying "America sucks and Americans suck!" (which is how I read some of your assertions) is IMO unpatriotic.

"My country right or wrong" is often cited as simpleton patriotism.  G.K. Chesterton wrote that it was something no true patriot would say.

But the original, spoken as a toast by Stephen Decatur, naval hero of the Barbary Wars and the War of 1812, included the idea of "may she always be in the right."
Two variants, somewhat different in meaning:
1. "Our country – In her intercourse with foreign nations may she always be in the right, and always successful, right or wrong."
2. "Our country! In her intercourse with foreign nations, may she always be in the right; but our country, right or wrong."
I'll stand by either of those.
Going to war cannot be objectively wrong, because there is no objective standard.  In 20-20 hindsight, it seems that invading Iraq was probably wrong, or that it went in the wrong direction.
Sometimes, oftentimes, it is not clear what is best for our country.  I thought back in 1991 that it would have been better for us to take out Saddam Hussein instead of leaving him in power to continue to oppress his own people and support lethal mischief in the region.  (I still think so.)  But we didn't do that, because the Arab members of the Gulf War coalition wouldn't have supported us in taking that action.  It's not clear even now if leaving him in power was wise or foolish restraint.
Bush 43 had a lot of top advisors who had been key players in the Bush 41 administration.  I suspect that some or many of them may have viewed that as a job left undone.  Maybe that affected their judgment for the worse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 13, 2020, 08:28:32 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 12, 2020, 08:59:22 PM
I'm quite certain it's not the best.  AND THAT'S OKAY!

Why is the argument always about the U.S. being #1????  It's somehow a crime to suggest maybe the U.S. is 7th best or 3rd or 20th. 
Why?
It saddens me that someone with this attitude is teaching children in this country. You obviously do not understand the phrase American Exceptionalism. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 13, 2020, 08:34:11 AM
It's facile in my view to claim one country, or one citizenship, is uniquely this way or that, worse or better, in general.

One can individually harbor an opinion of course that Country A is "the best", but it always is an opinion based on which criteria are most important to that person, and at times, can be rather badly informed.

It's like these lists of top ten BBQ places in the US, nobody seriously could know, and if somehow they tried them all, it's still their opinion based on their tastes.

One could of course calculate some aspects of what best would mean for a country.  But which factors get emphasized again rely on opinion.

At the top of my list of "Things I usually dislike" are of course top ten lists.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 13, 2020, 09:43:25 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 13, 2020, 08:34:11 AM
It's facile in my view to claim one country, or one citizenship, is uniquely this way or that, worse or better, in general.

One can individually harbor an opinion of course that Country A is "the best", but it always is an opinion based on which criteria are most important to that person, and at times, can be rather badly informed.

It's like these lists of top ten BBQ places in the US, nobody seriously could know, and if somehow they tried them all, it's still their opinion based on their tastes.

One could of course calculate some aspects of what best would mean for a country.  But which factors get emphasized again rely on opinion.

At the top of my list of "Things I usually dislike" are of course top ten lists.
Theres BBQ places other then in Texas?

What a waste.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 13, 2020, 10:58:33 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 13, 2020, 09:43:25 AM
Theres BBQ places other then in Texas?

What a waste.
Yeah, a couple Texas brothers brought the art to Atlanta a few years back, it seems to be catching on ....

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 13, 2020, 11:01:00 AM
Newly reported cases in GA dropped to 2,525, but as noted this could be because of the weekend reportage trend.  Hospital use continues to go up.

Some local restaurants are reclosing here for dine in, or only offering outdoor dining.

I have seen five near us permanently closed, one has not reopened yet, a burger place.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 13, 2020, 11:51:18 AM
Estimates here in Austin are that, by November, 90% of all music venues will die off and be permanently closed.  That sucks for those club owners, and also for all of the musicians who have basically been out of work since March 13th and will continue to be so, indefinitely.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 13, 2020, 12:18:31 PM
Another 12K+ cases in Florida yesterday, following by 15K+ reported for Saturday. I do know that the number of tests has gone up tremendously, which is good.

I had one done 2 weeks ago today. No results yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 13, 2020, 12:20:34 PM
musicians need to evolve, do some live streaming or find a way to reach fans
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 13, 2020, 01:05:41 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 13, 2020, 12:20:34 PM
musicians need to evolve, do some live streaming or find a way to reach fans
Streaming just isn't anywhere close to the same as a live performance.  I'm sure some are trying to do something like that, but honestly I wouldn't pay money for a live stream show over the web, or at least not near what I'd pay for that same live performance in a venue.  Really, i'd just be donating money to help an artist out, because I don't have much interest in watching musical performance on the TV or computer.  I'm well past my MTV days. ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 13, 2020, 01:09:44 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 13, 2020, 12:20:34 PM
musicians need to evolve, do some live streaming or find a way to reach fans
You might as well watch videos on YouTube. Completely different experience. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 13, 2020, 01:17:28 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 13, 2020, 12:20:34 PM
musicians need to evolve, do some live streaming or find a way to reach fans
I watched a live stream last Sat of one of my favorite artists

only cost $10 and was worth it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on July 13, 2020, 01:43:17 PM
For an act you already like...maybe.

The problem is a lot of bands get discovered by playing a venue with an established reputation.  You are paying the cover relying on that venue's standard of what gets put on their stage.  Then you learn to love the band.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 13, 2020, 01:52:28 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 13, 2020, 11:51:18 AM
Estimates here in Austin are that, by November, 90% of all music venues will die off and be permanently closed.  That sucks for those club owners, and also for all of the musicians who have basically been out of work since March 13th and will continue to be so, indefinitely.
The live music scene is going to die?

So you're saying I shouldn't move to Austin? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 13, 2020, 01:56:45 PM
Quote from: ELA on July 13, 2020, 01:43:17 PM
For an act you already like...maybe.

The problem is a lot of bands get discovered by playing a venue with an established reputation.  You are paying the cover relying on that venue's standard of what gets put on their stage.  Then you learn to love the band.
Well I first ran into the artist I like on utube so it was not a big stretch for me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 13, 2020, 02:33:14 PM
Well, I know it's hotter than Hades in Austin, but there's gotta be a few outdoor areas for events that could offer room for social distancing while wearing masks

block off a street and pull up a flatbed trailer for crying out loud!

do I have to move to Austin and set up a party?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 13, 2020, 02:40:19 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 13, 2020, 02:33:14 PM
Well, I know it's hotter than Hades in Austin, but there's gotta be a few outdoor areas for events that could offer room for social distancing while wearing masks

block off a street and pull up a flatbed trailer for crying out loud!

do I have to move to Austin and set up a party?
Hey I know a lot of crazy Texans that would be glad to help
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 13, 2020, 02:45:02 PM
Scientists believe cannabis could help prevent and treat coronavirus

A team of Canadian scientists believes it has found strong strains of cannabis that could help prevent or treat coronavirus infections, according to interviews and a study.

Researchers from the University of Lethbridge said a study in April showed at least 13 cannabis plants were high in CBD that appeared to affect the ACE2 pathways that the bug uses to access the body.

“We were totally stunned at first, and then we were really happy,” one of the researchers, Olga Kovalchuk, told CTV News.

The results, printed in online journal Preprints,


https://nypost.com/2020/05/21/scientists-believe-cannabis-could-help-prevent-treat-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR1FPw8iuE30W_p7SBUp2WmpQBoV7vapA7JfUQo--RztD8Ucsc0fhUcSqIg (https://nypost.com/2020/05/21/scientists-believe-cannabis-could-help-prevent-treat-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR1FPw8iuE30W_p7SBUp2WmpQBoV7vapA7JfUQo--RztD8Ucsc0fhUcSqIg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 13, 2020, 03:02:28 PM
were like a bunch of scientists just sitting around drinking beer when one of them says sheeesh weve tried everything to fight this virus what have we not tried

hey I know wouldnt it be neat if pot was the answer lets test it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 13, 2020, 03:13:58 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 13, 2020, 02:33:14 PM
Well, I know it's hotter than Hades in Austin, but there's gotta be a few outdoor areas for events that could offer room for social distancing while wearing masks

block off a street and pull up a flatbed trailer for crying out loud!

do I have to move to Austin and set up a party?
Large gatherings are still prohibited in the state of Texas, even if they're outdoors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 13, 2020, 03:15:03 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 13, 2020, 01:52:28 PM
The live music scene is going to die?

So you're saying I shouldn't move to Austin?
Pretty sure there won't be an Austin left to move to in another few months.

On the plus side, most of the kidney-stealers will likely get killed off by the Rona, so there you have it...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 13, 2020, 03:25:22 PM
sure is getting brown around here
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 13, 2020, 03:50:11 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 13, 2020, 03:15:03 PM
Pretty sure there won't be an Austin left to move to in another few months.

On the plus side, most of the kidney-stealers will likely get killed off by the Rona, so there you have it...
If the 'rona gets that bad, I might be able to afford to buy a house here. 

Newsom just locked us down again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on July 13, 2020, 04:08:50 PM
I have a feeling there will be many closures in places like Key West as well....  I wouldn't be surprised to see Vegas shrink after this...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 13, 2020, 04:35:08 PM
10,000 IU of Vitamin A Palmitate per day
5,000 IU of Vitamin D per day
1,000 mg of Vitamin C per day
Iodine/Iodide - 6 drops per drink, once per day


Been doing this for a while now. Might consider using the CBD oil drops I have on hand too. It would seem to make sense. Can't do pot/gummies due to random drug testing for my USCG license. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 13, 2020, 04:58:01 PM
A doctor friend of mine once commented "Americans have the most expensive urine in the world."

Incidentally, Vitamin A is fairly toxic (not at those levels unless you are pregnant).  Overdose is a known thing among those who really pump the stuff.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK532916/ (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK532916/)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on July 13, 2020, 05:29:29 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 13, 2020, 04:35:08 PM
10,000 IU of Vitamin A Palmitate per day
5,000 IU of Vitamin D per day
1,000 mg of Vitamin C per day
Iodine/Iodide - 6 drops per drink, once per day
Been doing this for a while now. Might consider using the CBD oil drops I have on hand too. It would seem to make sense. Can't do pot/gummies due to random drug testing for my USCG license.
Haven't heard about any outbreaks in Scotland,hmm wonder what they apply in copious amounts
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 13, 2020, 05:33:29 PM
Wife just added Zinc to our daily regimen until this 'rona blows over. 

I'm not entirely sure why, but she works for doctors so I assume she knows what she's talking about...

...and I'd probably take a cyanide tablet if she told me to. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 13, 2020, 05:33:39 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/fNwQtlh.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 13, 2020, 06:06:29 PM
A couple school system in California starting online only. In Ohio they haven't announced yet though the rumor mill suggests a hybrid system is very likely to start the year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 13, 2020, 06:10:10 PM
Hundreds of school board members and superintendents are proposing online-only here in AZ until at least October.  We'll see if Ducey Trump Jr goes for it, reluctantly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 13, 2020, 06:13:41 PM
What does Federal government have to do with this beyond perhaps setting out guidelines and advice?  Do they have any the power to order schools to open?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 13, 2020, 06:25:30 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 13, 2020, 06:13:41 PM
What does Federal government have to do with this beyond perhaps setting out guidelines and advice?  Do they have any the power to order schools to open?
The governor can mandate statewide measures.  Or highly suggest it.  Keep schools online-only or we'll pull your funding, something like that.  Right?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 13, 2020, 06:28:14 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 13, 2020, 06:13:41 PM
What does Federal government have to do with this beyond perhaps setting out guidelines and advice?  Do they have any the power to order schools to open?


It's been suggested they could try to withhold funding from schools, though their power to do that is debatable
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 13, 2020, 06:29:19 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on July 13, 2020, 06:28:14 PM
It's been suggested they could try to withhold funding from schools, though their power to do that is debatable
The rules don't matter, don't you know that?

Just go with your GideUoloTgy.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 13, 2020, 06:30:31 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on July 13, 2020, 06:28:14 PM
It's been suggested they could try to withhold funding from schools, though their power to do that is debatable
They cannot do it, and they know it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 13, 2020, 06:39:34 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 13, 2020, 06:30:31 PM
They cannot do it, and they know it.
Tell your president.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 13, 2020, 06:44:24 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 13, 2020, 06:39:34 PM
Tell your president.
oh the humanity 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 13, 2020, 06:48:05 PM
The situation is schools are trying too figure out what to do. The Department of Education is offering no guidance other than a vague declaration that opening is good. The CDC issued guidelines on opening which the president disagreed with. With no guidance from the federal level, the states will do the work, and that is going to vary widely.

Like I've mentioned previously, the threat to kids is very low and shouldn't be a reason to keep schools closed. The issues are spread to the community and the safety of the school workers. This is more uncertain. It would be nice to have some leadership here, but you get what you pay for.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 13, 2020, 07:00:00 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 13, 2020, 06:39:34 PM
Tell your president.
I have no access, otherwise I would.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 13, 2020, 07:05:21 PM
you can easily create a Twitter account  ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 13, 2020, 07:16:28 PM
once again we are taking a local problem and acting like its the fault of the President

its a local problem and decisions will be local 

if they dont want to open the schools then they dont have to

OAM if you dont like the decisions of your governor then vote against him in Nov
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 13, 2020, 07:17:30 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on July 13, 2020, 06:48:05 PM
Like I've mentioned previously, the threat to kids is very low and shouldn't be a reason to keep schools closed. 
Percentage-wise, you're absolutely correct.  Who wants to sign up to explain that to every child that does die because they went to school?  The hundreds or thousands or tens of thousands.  


With such a large sample size, those tiny percentages sure do equate to large whole numbers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 13, 2020, 07:17:41 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 13, 2020, 07:00:00 PM
I have no access, otherwise I would.
Cone on badge Chuck Woolery has a direct line I'm sure you can finagle one too
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 13, 2020, 07:18:34 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 13, 2020, 07:16:28 PM
once again we are taking a local problem and acting like its the fault of the President

its a local problem and decisions will be local

if they dont want to open the schools then they dont have to

OAM if you dont like the decisions of your governor then vote against him in Nov
When the mayor only does what the governor tells him, that widens the scope of the problem.  When the governor only does what the president tells him, that widens the scope further.  


I refuse to believe you don't understand this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 13, 2020, 07:20:34 PM
Reading this thread, I think I'm going to start rooting for the virus. 

On another forum, someone asked--flippantly--"Who believes that this virus is going to lead to the extinction of humanity?"

To be honest, I don't believe that. It's merely a long-odds hope. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 13, 2020, 07:25:31 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 13, 2020, 07:18:34 PM
When the mayor only does what the governor tells him, that widens the scope of the problem.  When the governor only does what the president tells him, that widens the scope further. 


I refuse to believe you don't understand this.
by law the Pres can not order a governor to open the schools

quit bashing the President 

Im grown tired of your daily rants against our President

take it to another thread
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 13, 2020, 07:28:47 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 13, 2020, 07:20:34 PM
Reading this thread, I think I'm going to start rooting for the virus.

On another forum, someone asked--flippantly--"Who believes that this virus is going to lead to the extinction of humanity?"

To be honest, I don't believe that. It's merely a long-odds hope.
sorry to disappoint you but I still think we will develop some sort of vaccine 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 13, 2020, 07:29:43 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on July 13, 2020, 07:17:41 PM
Cone on badge Chuck Woolery has a direct line I'm sure you can finagle one too
you could call Rush
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 13, 2020, 07:30:42 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 13, 2020, 07:18:34 PM
When the mayor only does what the governor tells him, that widens the scope of the problem.  When the governor only does what the president tells him, that widens the scope further. 


I refuse to believe you don't understand this.
the major and the governor have their responsibilities
if they choose to follow the President's lead, that is not the president's fault
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 13, 2020, 07:31:01 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 13, 2020, 07:29:43 PM
you could call Rush
he can't hear you
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 13, 2020, 07:40:09 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 13, 2020, 07:31:01 PM
he can't hear you
sure he can you just have to speak slowly
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 13, 2020, 07:48:21 PM
In Northwest Iowa, three COVID-19 patients were admitted to the hospital during the past day, according to data from Region 3 of Iowa's Regional Medical Coordination Centers (RMCC), which represents Northwest Iowa. As of Sunday afternoon, a total of 34 COVID-19 patients were hospitalized in the region, with 12 in the ICU and three on ventilators.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 13, 2020, 07:54:31 PM
With Iowa and other states seeing a resurgence of COVID-19 cases, Gov. Kim Reynolds on Monday called on Iowans to “step up” their mitigation efforts that previously slowed the spread of the coronavirus and eased the rate of hospitalizations.

The governor did not mandate the wearing of masks in public but advised Iowans to voluntarily wear face coverings, observe social distancing of at least 6 feet from others, practice good personal hygiene and stay home when sick as ways to combat the virus and keep Iowa open.

Reynolds posted an online video praising Iowans for helping to achieve “significant progress” in combating the public health pandemic by making “sacrifices to do the right thing.”

“That’s why we were able to flatten the curve, open back up and get our state on the road to recovery,” the governor said. “But COVID-19 is far from over, and I don’t want to go backward. I don’t want to reverse the progress that we’ve made since the pandemic began.”

To that end, Reynolds, called on Iowans to “step up and take personal responsibility — not because it’s mandated but because it’s the right thing to do.” She said practicing simple steps to prevent further COVID-19 spread is the “best defense” against the virus.

“So let’s step up, Iowa,” the governor said in the YouTube video. “Protecting yourself means that you’re protecting your friends, your family members, your co-workers and your fellow Iowans.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 13, 2020, 07:55:16 PM
an example of good leadership and good message above??

just wondering
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 13, 2020, 08:26:55 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 13, 2020, 07:55:16 PM
an example of good leadership and good message above??

just wondering
I cant tell if you are kidding or serious but it appears to me that as low a case number as Iowa has this may be premature

I like his approach however
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 13, 2020, 08:28:00 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 13, 2020, 07:29:43 PM
you could call Rush
Sadly, RUSH is no longer. The best drummer who ever lived passed away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 13, 2020, 08:34:15 PM
Any decision taken will be criticized.  I doubt we'll even know if a better decision could have been made with hindsight.

Maybe we could have been kept shut down another month.  Would that have mattered much?  Or would we just be seeing what we saw on June 13 now, and seeing what we're seeing now on August 13.  I don't know.

I wish we'd all wear masks when distancing is not possible.  I bought some nice ones that are pretty comfortable.  We wear them when we're out and about.

I think for some folks whatever this politician does or that one does is good or bad depending on which political party he's in, the logic doesn't go any further than that.

I'm surprised the number of reported deaths in Georgia appears to be remaining low, it's quite a bit lower than we saw from Sweden.  Maybe the delay meant we know better how to treat it now, and it is spreading mostly among the young.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 13, 2020, 08:40:48 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 13, 2020, 07:55:16 PM
an example of good leadership and good message above??

just wondering
I'll give that a thumbs up. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 13, 2020, 08:45:48 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 13, 2020, 08:26:55 PM
I cant tell if you are kidding or serious but it appears to me that as low a case number as Iowa has this may be premature

I like his approach however
I was serious


I suppose some folks think it's a good message while other's think it doesn't go nearly far enough and is therefore a bad message

it is an example of a leader with a message

I'm not concerned with case numbers.  Hospitalizations and deaths should be avoided if possible.  I understand that with more cases there will be more deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 13, 2020, 08:48:31 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 13, 2020, 08:28:00 PM
Sadly, RUSH is no longer. The best drummer who ever lived passed away.
(https://scontent.fdsm1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/p526x296/107834504_110095864107352_5666018386132340136_n.png?_nc_cat=1&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=CFkDJ2z0Q6MAX_lok5N&_nc_ht=scontent.fdsm1-1.fna&oh=2e85690624ab7d174375a6786c4c24ee&oe=5F30D42F)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 13, 2020, 09:05:41 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 13, 2020, 08:45:48 PM
I'm not concerned with case numbers.  Hospitalizations and deaths should be avoided if possible.  I understand that with more cases there will be more deaths.
So by the transitive law, you aren't concerned with deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 13, 2020, 09:15:40 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 13, 2020, 09:05:41 PM
So by the transitive law, you aren't concerned with deaths.
you found him out

He wants everybody to die

Ive long suspected this but this confirms it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 13, 2020, 09:45:20 PM
damn it!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 13, 2020, 09:50:28 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 13, 2020, 09:05:41 PM
So by the transitive law, you aren't concerned with deaths.
if there were one million cases in the next month and one death

the death would be a concern to me

the million cases would not
there is going to be another death, that can not be stopped

every death or hospitalization should be prevented if possible
it's not possible to prevent every death

if absolutely no school children attend school in classrooms this year - there will still be a school aged death
it will be tragic
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on July 14, 2020, 07:41:58 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 13, 2020, 08:28:00 PM
Sadly, RUSH is no longer. The best drummer who ever lived passed away.
Neil Peart certainly is in the discussion,Moon,Bonham,Baker,Carl Palmer,Bill Bruford,Buddy Rich.......
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2020, 07:52:22 AM
The death of one is a tragedy.

The death of millions is a statistic.

Said by a Georgian would be monk dude.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 14, 2020, 07:53:03 AM
Deleting all of the discussion of America's greatness or lack thereof.  If you want to argue about America, the 2020 thread is good for that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2020, 07:56:49 AM
Quote from: utee94 on July 14, 2020, 07:53:03 AM
Deleting all of the non-Corona crap.  If you want to argue about America, the 2020 thread is good for that.
Is this post non-Corona crap too?

GA 3,643 reported new cases.  2,600 hospital cases, up from a low of around 600 a month ago.  Deaths remain "low".  Temporary hospitals being revived after being closed.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 14, 2020, 08:03:49 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 14, 2020, 07:56:49 AM
Is this post non-Corona crap too?

GA 3,643 reported new cases.  2,600 hospital cases, up from a low of around 600 a month ago.  Deaths remain "low".  Temporary hospitals being revived after being closed.


I'm actually good with the light-hearted talk of rock drummers and such.  The debates about America belong on the other thread.

Deaths remaining "low" in Georgia is a good thing.  I think our medical workers have figured out some much-improved treatments compared to when this all began, and it's at least somewhat less lethal because of that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on July 14, 2020, 08:36:10 AM
I say we come together as one as a nation to defeat the coronavirus by banning all travel for eternity to/from China, revoking all Chinese nationals in the US visas and deporting them effective immediately, and bombing the Chinese into the stone age. Michael Bolton is with me.


(https://media2.giphy.com/media/l3q2UyW34cT2rcgko/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2020, 09:42:04 AM
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/07/13/1005103/immunity-to-covid-19-could-disappear-in-months-a-new-study-suggests/?fbclid=IwAR128zY0zZZ7HXws8vYjV_Qnfwhj-V_07FwjVohAhQ6ctLMMbSAUbcqnK2c (https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/07/13/1005103/immunity-to-covid-19-could-disappear-in-months-a-new-study-suggests/?fbclid=IwAR128zY0zZZ7HXws8vYjV_Qnfwhj-V_07FwjVohAhQ6ctLMMbSAUbcqnK2c)

Another finding that antibody resistance may only last a few months.

The T cell thing might be important though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2020, 09:50:20 AM
Yep, based on the levels I had a month ago, I'm guessing they are no longer in me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 14, 2020, 09:51:26 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 14, 2020, 09:42:04 AM
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/07/13/1005103/immunity-to-covid-19-could-disappear-in-months-a-new-study-suggests/?fbclid=IwAR128zY0zZZ7HXws8vYjV_Qnfwhj-V_07FwjVohAhQ6ctLMMbSAUbcqnK2c (https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/07/13/1005103/immunity-to-covid-19-could-disappear-in-months-a-new-study-suggests/?fbclid=IwAR128zY0zZZ7HXws8vYjV_Qnfwhj-V_07FwjVohAhQ6ctLMMbSAUbcqnK2c)

Another finding that antibody resistance may only last a few months.

The T cell thing might be important though.
again if antibodys only last a few months then there would be a whole lot of reinfections which there arent
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2020, 09:53:22 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 14, 2020, 09:51:26 AM
again if antibodys only last a few months then there would be a whole lot of reinfections which there arent
I don't know that we know for sure. I'd certainly like to know. I was tested for the virus on 6/29 and I'm still waiting on results.

I've never been a fan of Quest Diagnostics. Even less so now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2020, 10:25:51 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 14, 2020, 09:51:26 AM
again if antibodys only last a few months then there would be a whole lot of reinfections which there arent
The T cell thing might be operative.

As for reinfections, statistically, infections are rare.  If your chance of infection is say 1% in a month, your chance of a second reinfection would be 0.01% twice in a month.

And after the first infection, you might be more careful for a while, and you have some lingering resistance at worst.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2020, 10:27:27 AM
U of Miami infectious disease doctor: “Miami is now the epicenter for the virus"

A group of Miami-area medical experts joined Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez on a Zoom news conference Monday morning and made clear that South Florida is in a dire position when it comes to the spread of COVID-19.

“Miami is now the epicenter for the virus,” said Lilian M. Abbo, M.D., an infectious diseases specialist at the University of Miami Health System and the Chief of Infection Prevention for Jackson Health System. “What we were seeing in Wuhan [China] five months ago, we’re now seeing here.”

The experts were speaking minutes after Florida announced 12,624 new cases of COVID-19 -- a day after Florida set a record for any state with 15,300 new cases.

The experts stressed the need to restrict large gatherings of people in indoor spaces, and Gimenez said the biggest thing that needs to be done is residents following the safety guidelines.


“The reason [for the spike] is us. There’s no Boogeyman. The reason is us,” he said. “We have to change our behavior. The no. 1 reason is our behavior.”


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 14, 2020, 10:41:03 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 14, 2020, 10:25:51 AM
The T cell thing might be operative.

As for reinfections, statistically, infections are rare.  If your chance of infection is say 1% in a month, your chance of a second reinfection would be 0.01% twice in a month.

And after the first infection, you might be more careful for a while, and you have some lingering resistance at worst.


I would think that because you became infected in the first place your chance of a reinfection would be much higher then someone never infected 

your life style or demographics determine a lot of this

for there to be no reinfections among those previously infected is more then just chance
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 14, 2020, 10:44:38 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2020, 10:27:27 AM
U of Miami infectious disease doctor: “Miami is now the epicenter for the virus"

A group of Miami-area medical experts joined Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez on a Zoom news conference Monday morning and made clear that South Florida is in a dire position when it comes to the spread of COVID-19.

“Miami is now the epicenter for the virus,” said Lilian M. Abbo, M.D., an infectious diseases specialist at the University of Miami Health System and the Chief of Infection Prevention for Jackson Health System. “What we were seeing in Wuhan [China] five months ago, we’re now seeing here.”

The experts were speaking minutes after Florida announced 12,624 new cases of COVID-19 -- a day after Florida set a record for any state with 15,300 new cases.

The experts stressed the need to restrict large gatherings of people in indoor spaces, and Gimenez said the biggest thing that needs to be done is residents following the safety guidelines.


“The reason [for the spike] is us. There’s no Boogeyman. The reason is us,” he said. “We have to change our behavior. The no. 1 reason is our behavior.”



So is it time to do what China did?

Call in the troops and start hauling folks out of their homes to camps to die?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2020, 11:10:47 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 14, 2020, 10:44:38 AM
So is it time to do what China did?

Call in the troops and start hauling folks out of their homes to camps to die?
Well, nobody in Miami is covering anything up, including their faces. Hopefully that changes, along with not having big parties and not crowding the streets.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 14, 2020, 11:23:36 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2020, 11:10:47 AM
Well, nobody in Miami is covering anything up, including their faces. Hopefully that changes, along with not having big parties and not crowding the streets.
law of natural selection
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2020, 11:28:36 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 14, 2020, 11:23:36 AM
law of natural selection
Kinda, but not really. All of these kids (and also some adults) are out, acting like there is no pandemic. Then, they get together with family/friends who are older and more susceptible to illness. That's the big problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on July 14, 2020, 11:30:08 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 13, 2020, 01:52:28 PM
The live music scene is going to die?

So you're saying I shouldn't move to Austin?

This is the worst thing about the whole close down thing. I haven't been out to see live music, when I usually go out at least once a week. Worst being relative to me and not the rest of the people. As they say first world problems. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 14, 2020, 11:36:21 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2020, 11:28:36 AM
Kinda, but not really. All of these kids (and also some adults) are out, acting like there is no pandemic. Then, they get together with family/friends who are older and more susceptible to illness. That's the big problem.
and they have been warned over and over again 

they made the choice

which is where the law of natural selection arrives on the scene
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 14, 2020, 11:38:13 AM
Quote from: Riffraft on July 14, 2020, 11:30:08 AM
This is the worst thing about the whole close down thing. I haven't been out to see live music, when I usually go out at least once a week. Worst being relative to me and not the rest of the people. As they say first world problems.
I dont have this dim of view

we will get over this and while some things will take time to return I feel the Austin music scene will be one of them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2020, 11:41:20 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 14, 2020, 11:36:21 AM
and they have been warned over and over again

they made the choice

which is where the law of natural selection arrives on the scene
Grandma didn't make the bad choice - the kids did.

I've noticed more and more my two boys are hanging out with friends, and all that. We're not seeing them much, and when we do, it's outside and spaced.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 14, 2020, 11:58:27 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2020, 11:41:20 AM
Grandma didn't make the bad choice - the kids did.

I've noticed more and more my two boys are hanging out with friends, and all that. We're not seeing them much, and when we do, it's outside and spaced.
All the neighborhood kids hang out, that's including from elementary level to college level since most of the college kids are home now while campuses figure out how they're going to manage the Fall. The kids are entirely over it.  It's hard for me to blame them, I'm over it too but I have a lot more responsibility including seeing my aging parents. I allow my kids to hang out with a handful of their friends, whose parents I know and we are like-minded.

My wife has to go into work every single day, meeting new patients with hands-on 1-on-1 care.  They all wear face masks, are required to take temperatures, wash hands all of the time, but she's still the largest threat vector for our family.  So visits with our parents are outside, and distanced.  I haven't hugged my folks since late February, nor have my kids.  It sucks but it's better than spreading the coronas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 12:19:57 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 13, 2020, 07:17:30 PM
Percentage-wise, you're absolutely correct.  Who wants to sign up to explain that to every child that does die because they went to school?  The hundreds or thousands or tens of thousands. 


With such a large sample size, those tiny percentages sure do equate to large whole numbers.
Wasn't it you who just a few days ago was posting about how children who are staying home are getting molested by their creepy uncles and everything?
I'm not just trying to expose your inconsistency (although that is a bonus), but pointing out that there are no perfect solutions, and that children are at some certain risk (along with everybody else) no matter what course we take.
We don't have "obviously great" and "obviously terrible" options from which to choose.  We have "bad" and "maybe a little less bad, but possibly a little more bad" as our options.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 14, 2020, 12:37:39 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 12:19:57 PM
We don't have "obviously great" and "obviously terrible" options from which to choose.  We have "bad" and "maybe a little less bad, but possibly a little more bad" as our options.
And to be honest, even if you agree that a certain politician is advocating to reopen schools for purely self-serving political ends, that doesn't mean we shouldn't open schools just because He wants it. 

The balancing test should be choosing the least bad option. 

I'm not convinced that a year of distance learning is the least bad option, for MANY reasons. On a personal level, I don't think it's the least bad option for my kids. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 14, 2020, 12:43:24 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 14, 2020, 12:37:39 PM
And to be honest, even if you agree that a certain politician is advocating to reopen schools for purely self-serving political ends, that doesn't mean we shouldn't open schools just because He wants it.

The balancing test should be choosing the least bad option.

I'm not convinced that a year of distance learning is the least bad option, for MANY reasons. On a personal level, I don't think it's the least bad option for my kids.

Same here.  The online schooling last Spring, for my kids, was an absolute disaster. 

Have we seen any further studies from places that have reopened schools, on how common child-to-child infection is, and also how common child-to-teacher and child-to-parent transmission is?  It seems like globally, we should have some evidence piling up in one direction or another, by now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 14, 2020, 12:52:06 PM
I should point out that the OC board of schools just announced that neither masks nor physical distancing will be a requirement. That, IMHO, is a mistake. 

The kids' in the charter school is saying that they're going to offer both in-person 5 day a week learning and 5 day a week online option. Luckily, the ex and I both agree that we want in-person learning. They're talking about things like staggered start times to avoid a lot of congregation, and I think there will be a lot of parents who choose online, which will make distancing easier on those who are in person. And whether the school mandates masks or not, I am mandating masks for my kids and I will email the teachers at the beginning of the year to let them know that if the kids aren't complying that I expect them to email me and let me know. 

For the one in the special ed program it's TBD... He's the one that needs in-person schooling the most IMHO, but he's in a different school district and it's today unclear what their plans are. 

I do find it interesting the number of people I see on social media who are just terrified to send their little precious babies to school... Must be nice. I am able to WFH, but I can't support their education that well because I'm WFH. My wife goes to the office every day. I don't trust my ex to be a good substitute teacher on her best day. And then we'd have to balance how we handle coordinating their education across multiple households. 

All these Real Housewives of the OC may be able to be substitute teachers, but if I'm asked to do it the kids might as well write off the school year. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2020, 12:52:18 PM
I think a hybrid model could work. 3 on, 2 remote, then 2 on, 3 remote. Sanitize every night, of course. This would help to maintain distancing in the classrooms. For every 10 school days, you get 5 days in-person and 5 days remote.

This has to be juggled with how home supervision would look, with parents working and such.

I have not talked to one person who thought the remote learning was good. Most say bad, or worse than bad. I think being in for half the time will help greatly. Not only from a learning standpoint, but from a social standpoint.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2020, 12:54:48 PM
I feel for you guys with kids to manage and jobs to manage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 14, 2020, 12:59:32 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2020, 12:54:48 PM
I feel for you guys with kids to manage and jobs to manage.
Yep I feel very lucky to be past that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 14, 2020, 01:00:58 PM
if it were me the minute they hit the door from school Id take their temp and might even send them up for a bath
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 14, 2020, 01:03:20 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2020, 12:52:18 PM
I have not talked to one person who thought the remote learning was good. Most say bad, or worse than bad. I think being in for half the time will help greatly. Not only from a learning standpoint, but from a social standpoint.
Remote learning was a joke. 

However, the claim is that things would be much different. There would be much more scheduled learning where students were expected to be logged an at specific times for instruction. That's a lot different than the end of the last school year where they might have a 30 minute Zoom meeting once a day--not always every day--and the rest of it was very self-directed. 

But that much structure creates its own problems. What if I have to go into the office or to a customer site and need to leave the kids at their drop-in daycare? Will they be able to do their assignments from there? 

Half in, half out is better than nothing, academically, but is it going to make any meaningful difference to the potential spread of COVID? To some extent I feel like if you're in for a penny, you're in for a pound. I much prefer the parent's choice of all-in or all-out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 14, 2020, 01:05:18 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 14, 2020, 01:00:58 PM
if it were me the minute they hit the door from school Id take their temp and might even send them up for a bath
When we get them from their mom for a 5-day stretch, the first thing we do is take their temp. 

And even before this, they were taught a LONG time ago that when you get home, the very first thing you do is wash your hands. Do not pass Go, do not pet the dog, do not touch anything... Wash your damn hands. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 14, 2020, 01:10:42 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2020, 12:54:48 PM
I feel for you guys with kids to manage and jobs to manage.
That's the hardest thing about this. With the exception of the special needs child, I feel like I'm the exact sort of parent that you would want to support distance learning. Obviously as an engineer I know and can explain math, but my own intellectual interests are wide-ranging enough that I feel like I could support everything they need regarding history, social studies, English/reading/writing, etc. 

But I'm juggling a half-dozen email threads, phone calls, meetings, and then when I finally get a quiet moment I need to spend it doing real work. By the end of the work day I'm mentally spent. I can manage the kids while working from home, because they're at ages where they don't need constant supervision to not kill themselves. But I can't manage their education too. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on July 14, 2020, 01:14:42 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 14, 2020, 11:38:13 AM
I dont have this dim of view

we will get over this and while some things will take time to return I feel the Austin music scene will be one of them

You misunderstood me. Its me currently being deprived of live music, not too worried about its future.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on July 14, 2020, 01:20:18 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 14, 2020, 12:52:06 PM
All these Real Housewives of the OC may be able to be substitute teachers, but if I'm asked to do it the kids might as well write off the school year.
Not totally there could be aspiring Zymurgists or Q aficionados looking forward to your instruction/tutelage
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 14, 2020, 01:35:46 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 14, 2020, 01:10:42 PM
That's the hardest thing about this. With the exception of the special needs child, I feel like I'm the exact sort of parent that you would want to support distance learning. Obviously as an engineer I know and can explain math, but my own intellectual interests are wide-ranging enough that I feel like I could support everything they need regarding history, social studies, English/reading/writing, etc.

But I'm juggling a half-dozen email threads, phone calls, meetings, and then when I finally get a quiet moment I need to spend it doing real work. By the end of the work day I'm mentally spent. I can manage the kids while working from home, because they're at ages where they don't need constant supervision to not kill themselves. But I can't manage their education too.
Unsurprisingly, this describes my situation exactly, as well. I can manage the kids, but I can't manage their education.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 14, 2020, 02:04:04 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on July 14, 2020, 01:20:18 PM
Not totally there could be aspiring Zymurgists or Q aficionados looking forward to your instruction/tutelage
Not M-F 6:30 AM to 5 PM, they can't... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 14, 2020, 02:59:48 PM
A friend of mine, my age, with children the same age as mine (early 20's) has had two of his 3 children infected with COVID.  His son lives in his house as does my daughter.

when his daughter tested positive he and his wife were tested.  Tests came back negative in 10 days.  When his son was positive yesterday, he decided not to be tested again, just quarantine for 2 weeks.  Father and mother have no symptoms.

If I was older or was unhealthy, this would be a bigger issue.

but, Obviously I could become very sick from COVID.

I could distance myself from my children, but chose not to.

Unfortunately, many grandparents and others at risk probably chose not to distance from young people in their 20s.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 14, 2020, 03:31:34 PM
So, going back a bit, I rely on @Cincydawg (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=870) and @bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) to find the studies that I miss, and I'm wondering if either of you have seen anything recent, and helpful, regarding risk of transmission from child-to-child, and child-to-teacher/child-to-parent?

A couple of months ago, I recall two conflicting reports.  One said risk of transmission from children to adults was quite low, citing the relatively low intensity/quantity of the viral load from children as a potential factor in that.  And another said that it was not low at all and evidence showed that it can and does spread.

At this point, various countries around the world have taken such different approaches, that I feel like we should have some reasonable amount of data to work with.  Some countries never shut down schools, some shut them down then reopened a couple of months later, and some (like the US) pretty much shut them down and have not reopened.

I just really think that we should have enough data to support some reasonable hypotheses by now.  But I'm not seeing anything rigorous out there, or at least I haven't been able to find it myself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2020, 03:46:10 PM
My sobering takeaway from all of this is that "we" seem not to have the tools to learn quickly some key details of a pandemic, including the items noted above.  We get scattered studies that often conflict and don't know what to believe.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on July 14, 2020, 03:49:37 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 14, 2020, 02:59:48 PM
A friend of mine, my age, with children the same age as mine (early 20's) has had two of his 3 children infected with COVID.  His son lives in his house as does my daughter.

when his daughter tested positive he and his wife were tested.  Tests came back negative in 10 days.  When his son was positive yesterday, he decided not to be tested again, just quarantine for 2 weeks.  Father and mother have no symptoms.

If I was older or was unhealthy, this would be a bigger issue.

but, Obviously I could become very sick from COVID.

I could distance myself from my children, but chose not to.

Unfortunately, many grandparents and others at risk probably chose not to distance from young people in their 20s.
This probably goes back to the studies that have shown it is very hard to have the virus transmit from a child to an adult. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on July 14, 2020, 03:54:59 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 14, 2020, 03:31:34 PM
So, going back a bit, I rely on @Cincydawg (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=870) and @bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) to find the studies that I miss, and I'm wondering if either of you have seen anything recent, and helpful, regarding risk of transmission from child-to-child, and child-to-teacher/child-to-parent?

A couple of months ago, I recall two conflicting reports.  One said risk of transmission from children to adults was quite low, citing the relatively low intensity/quantity of the viral load from children as a potential factor in that.  And another said that it was not low at all and evidence showed that it can and does spread.

At this point, various countries around the world have taken such different approaches, that I feel like we should have some reasonable amount of data to work with.  Some countries never shut down schools, some shut them down then reopened a couple of months later, and some (like the US) pretty much shut them down and have not reopened.

I just really think that we should have enough data to support some reasonable hypotheses by now.  But I'm not seeing anything rigorous out there, or at least I haven't been able to find it myself.
MSN just took some heat for having a number of doctors on one of their shows talking about how hard it is for child to pass the virus onto adults and then have them all say they would send their children school. 

One said "The younger you are, probably the less likely you are to be able to transmit the disease," he said. "Once you get to high school age, you're going to be a little bit more concerned, [and] once you're in college age, you're going to be a lot concerned."

Dr. Shilpa Patel, a New Jersey-based pediatrician, said it's challenging to make predictions because scientists are still learning about the virus. But she said she has no hesitations about letting her kids return to school this fall.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 14, 2020, 04:00:46 PM
I've seen very little so far on recent effects, largely because when it hit most schools closed. And then those which reopened often did so in countries with MUCH lower new infection rates than we have in the US. 

I'm a little concerned by the reports of some kids infected with COVID manifesting symptoms similar to Kawasaki disease, but that seems few and far between so far. 

That said, I haven't seen any studies that show that the risk of transmission among kids or the risk of serious complications among kids is significant enough to warrant limiting their educations as badly as I expect will happen with 100% distance learning. 

But I could be wrong... And it's entirely possible that society will take the choice out of my hands, particularly here in CA. At this point Los Angeles County and San Diego County have announced that they do not plan to open school campuses in the fall and plan to start with 100% distance learning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 14, 2020, 04:11:02 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 14, 2020, 04:00:46 PM
I've seen very little so far on recent effects, largely because when it hit most schools closed. And then those which reopened often did so in countries with MUCH lower new infection rates than we have in the US.

I'm a little concerned by the reports of some kids infected with COVID manifesting symptoms similar to Kawasaki disease, but that seems few and far between so far.

That said, I haven't seen any studies that show that the risk of transmission among kids or the risk of serious complications among kids is significant enough to warrant limiting their educations as badly as I expect will happen with 100% distance learning.

But I could be wrong... And it's entirely possible that society will take the choice out of my hands, particularly here in CA. At this point Los Angeles County and San Diego County have announced that they do not plan to open school campuses in the fall and plan to start with 100% distance learning.

Up until just this week, our school district was planning on offering a choice between online, or in-person.  Their surveys showed them that enough people would choose the online-only option, that social distancing within the classrooms would be possible.

Now it seems that they're headed the other way, and are likely to go 100% online.

I honestly think the damage caused by that, would be worse than not going to school at all-- at least for my 12yo 7th grader.

She's a straight-A+ student and born teacher-pleaser, but absolutely needs the direct face-to-face contact with her teachers, as well as the social interaction in classes, and maybe most importantly the structured environment, that can only be found in in-person school.  She suffered tremendously, stopped turning in all of her assignments for a month, descended from a bubbly, upbeat, smart pre-teen to a sullen, isolated, unhappy tweenager, in the span of 2 months.  Her teachers started calling me directly, and asking me what was wrong, because it was just so completely unlike her.

I won't be doing that again.  If we're not in-person in school, then we're dropping out for a year until they can figure out a way to make it work. 

And what I have yet to see, is for any administrators to provide me evidence of the risks of child-to-child transmission, and child-to-adult transmission, to warrant keeping the schools shut-down.  If the mantra of the "Careful" in this pandemic has been to "follow the science" then where is that science???  Show me.  Prove to me one way or the other.

Because I will not ever, EVER allow my child's future and education to be put at risk again, the way it was last Spring. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 04:13:19 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 14, 2020, 12:43:24 PM
Same here.  The online schooling last Spring, for my kids, was an absolute disaster.

Have we seen any further studies from places that have reopened schools, on how common child-to-child infection is, and also how common child-to-teacher and child-to-parent transmission is?  It seems like globally, we should have some evidence piling up in one direction or another, by now.
I wouldn't take the example of last spring as the best we can do with "distant learning."  It was certainly a worthless exercise for many/most in Oklahoma, as the guidance from the State Department of Education was to hold the students harmless for work assigned after the post-Spring Break on-line schooling.  The kids did enough to get their grades where they wanted them to be, and for the most part that was it.
Even with AP students.  My AP U.S. History students on average did about 10% of the work I assigned them to do, and I did not assign an onerous volume of work.
But we can do better than that if it comes down to it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 14, 2020, 04:16:27 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 04:13:19 PM
I wouldn't take the example of last spring as the best we can do with "distant learning."  It was certainly a worthless exercise for many/most in Oklahoma, as the guidance from the State Department of Education was to hold the students harmless for work assigned after the post-Spring Break on-line schooling.  The kids did enough to get their grades where they wanted them to be, and for the most part that was it.
Even with AP students.  My AP U.S. History students on average did about 10% of the work I assigned them to do, and I did not assign an onerous volume of work.
But we can do better than that if it comes down to it.
It was more than just the work itself, which wasn't particularly challenging, engaging, or worthwhile.  It was also my daughter's reaction to the online environment.  

I could see college and even some high school students being able to manage it.  But middle school and elementary school students just don't have the tools to be able to do it, even with considerable influence and input from parents like me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2020, 04:17:03 PM
CDC chief says Northerners heading South for vacation may be to blame for surge in coronavirus cases, not state reopenings


https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/coronavirus/cdc-chief-says-northerners-heading-south-for-vacation-may-be-to-blame-for-surge-in-coronavirus-cases-not-state-reopenings/ar-BB16JuHU?li=BBnb7Kz (https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/coronavirus/cdc-chief-says-northerners-heading-south-for-vacation-may-be-to-blame-for-surge-in-coronavirus-cases-not-state-reopenings/ar-BB16JuHU?li=BBnb7Kz)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 14, 2020, 04:17:41 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2020, 04:17:03 PM
CDC chief says Northerners heading South for vacation may be to blame for surge in coronavirus cases, not state reopenings


https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/coronavirus/cdc-chief-says-northerners-heading-south-for-vacation-may-be-to-blame-for-surge-in-coronavirus-cases-not-state-reopenings/ar-BB16JuHU?li=BBnb7Kz (https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/coronavirus/cdc-chief-says-northerners-heading-south-for-vacation-may-be-to-blame-for-surge-in-coronavirus-cases-not-state-reopenings/ar-BB16JuHU?li=BBnb7Kz)



Holy shit, don't tell that to @Big Beef Tacosupreme (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1529) , it'll blow his whole world view!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 04:18:24 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 14, 2020, 12:52:06 PM
I should point out that the OC board of schools just announced that neither masks nor physical distancing will be a requirement. That, IMHO, is a mistake. . . .
That is a huge mistake, IMO.  If that is how my district goes back to school, I will put in my retirement paperwork.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2020, 04:20:12 PM
I will say that when we were on our way back to Illinois, Southbound traffic on I-75 was a LOT heavier than Northbound. Might be something to this idea.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2020, 04:21:20 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 14, 2020, 04:17:41 PM
Holy shit, don't tell that to @Big Beef Tacosupreme (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1529) , it'll blow his whole world view!
I won't mention it. But, I'm sure Dr. Redfield will get dragged through the mud, regardless.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 14, 2020, 04:30:36 PM
So we're saying that @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) -- who was infected by COVID as evidenced by his positive antibody test -- is at fault for destroying the entire state of Florida by bringing the virus there? 

Yeah, I can live with that. Good job, Badge!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 14, 2020, 04:37:05 PM
More seriously, I'm not sure that holds water. 



I'm not going to go farther, because we're trying to keep politics out of this thread. But it just seems like a... convenient... explanation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 14, 2020, 04:39:59 PM
straw man building
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 04:42:39 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 14, 2020, 04:16:27 PM
It was more than just the work itself, which wasn't particularly challenging, engaging, or worthwhile.  It was also my daughter's reaction to the online environment. 

I could see college and even some high school students being able to manage it.  But middle school and elementary school students just don't have the tools to be able to do it, even with considerable influence and input from parents like me.
You are a far better judge of what your daughter needs than I am.
I'm just saying that, in general, we can do it better after 5-6 months thinking it out than we did on the fly last March.  Not just holding kids accountable for doing the assignments, but having a better online learning environment than we did last spring.

I saw this a week ago, and it seems pretty reasonable.
____________________________________________

The Bulwark
The Triad

Three things to read, from JVL


1. School?

Right on schedule, the national school panic is here.

Most of the country is supposed to go back to school in September. Parts of the country go earlier. Nobody has any idea what they’re doing or what’s actually going to happen.

Let’s lay out some guide rails for how to think about schooling in the pandemic, because there are some universal truths worth keeping in mind:
Here are some basic facts that make figuring out school protocols extremely hard:

For starters, even talking about “school” as a singular entity is a mistake.

As an epidemiological matter, there is a world of difference between large schools and small schools, between small children and high schoolers. It makes no sense—none—to assume that the same best-practice for a room that houses a dozen 5-year-olds in daycare will be the same for a high school with 3,000 students.

By the same token, we don’t know enough about the coronavirus yet to understand the differences in likelihood of, say a 5-year-old catching and spreading it compared with an 18-year-old catching and spreading it. The data we do have on these differences is wildly conflicting (https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/18/how-likely-are-kids-to-get-covid-19-scientists-see-a-huge-puzzle-without-easy-answers/).

And there are going to be large-scale geographic differences, too. On July 4, Vermont had 2 new cases (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/vermont-coronavirus-cases.html) diagnosed and Florida had 11,458 new cases (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/florida-coronavirus-cases.html). Why should we think that best practices for these two states would be the same?

Also there will be temporal differences: The true state of the infection in July may not be the case in September, which may not be the case in December.

You can see what I’m trying to get at here: There is no one “right” way to do school in this environment.

2. Risks and Needs

The one thing the data does suggest is that the risks of death from coronavirus for individuals under the age of 20 are lower than they are for people over 20. (And the risks of death for kids under 10 (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2005073) is lower than kids aged 10 to 19.)

That’s obviously a good thing. But the health of the kids in school is only one part of the equation. The other is the spread of the virus. Because a kid who picks up the infection and brings it home is going to put others at risk, even if her own chances of dying are quite small.

If a family has someone over the age of 50 in the house, that’s a problem. If someone in the family is immunocompromised, that’s also a problem.

So different families will have different levels of risk.

And by the same token, different families have different needs. Just off the top of my head, here are three scenarios in which what a family needs to get out of schooling are radically different:

Quote
Quote
(1) A two-parent family in which one parent stays home and the other parent can telework has a very high level of flexibility. Maybe they can manage remote-learning with a high degree of success and a relatively small economic burden.

(2) A single mother who cannot telework and has to report to a workplace for 40 hours a week. How is she supposed to manage if her kids aren't physically at school for 8 hours a day?

(3) A family with a special-needs child for whom school isn’t about working towards college admissions but about early intervention to help them manage their challenges. For them, remote learning may be impossible and what the child misses from school is the critical help from a team of people who are experts in special ed.


Now overlay the different risks that families have with their different needs and you start to see, again, how it will be nearly impossible to have a one-size-fits-all protocol for opening schools.

And here I cannot stress this enough: Anyone who says either “You must open all the schools like normal” or “You cannot open any schools at all” is either foolish, or hysterical, or pushing an agenda.

3. Five Ideas

Mind you, I don't have the answers either. But I do have some general thoughts as to what answers will look like. Here are five broad precepts—concessions to circumstances, really—that ought to guide our thinking.

(1) Flexibility

This is the most important precept.

Every school needs to have at least three plans at the ready. One for something that looks like full opening, one for partial opening, and one for fully remote classes. If I had my druthers, I’d also want options broken out separately for elementary, middle, and high schools. And I’d want a totally separate array of options for non-mainstreamed special education.

School systems should also build in the flexibility to switch between options as circumstances warrant. If you’re in Vermont, maybe full-open works well for your district. But if your town has a spike of cases, then you have to move to another mode.

By the same token, if you’re in a Florida town where the virus is out of control in September, maybe you have to start out with full-remote schooling. But that doesn’t mean you have to stay in that mode for the entire year.

(2) Individuality

An acceptable risk for one family might be too much for another, so school systems should expend a lot of effort accommodating families. So for instance, if a school is running at partial-open and a family wants to do full-remote, there ought to be ways to make that work.

(3) An Acceptance of “Good Enough”

Let’s just all agree, at the start, that this will be a weird school year. No one is going to get through their normal curriculum. There will be subjects that get left out or only partially covered.

And when the 2020-2021 school year comes to a close and Jimmy and Susie aren’t as far along as they should be, guess what?

The world isn’t going to end.

At the elementary level, the truth is that kids need very little other than reading and math. Middle school is largely just table-setting for high school, so if everyone is short-changed by the same amount, then the kids will be fine. And as you get into high school—particularly the higher AP levels—the kids will be more equipped to learn through textbooks and lectures. Which is what college will be like for them anyway.

(4) Pass/Fail

Once you get to the high school level, a lot of institutional energy is spent trying to sift and separate kids in the 70th percentile from the kids in the 90th percentile. And even more energy is spent trying to separate the kids in the 98th from the kids in the 99th.

We could have a whole debate on whether or not this is a good thing (I vote “no”) but for the purposes of the 2020-2021 school year, we ought to just press pause on the whole thing by having everyone go to pass/fail. Grades are going to be meaningless in this environment anyway; they would all require an asterisk. Schools ought to recognize that explicitly.

“Education” isn’t a monolith. It’s purposes are part childcare, part credentialing, and part genuine learning. And a lot of times that last part is the junior partner in the arrangement. By going to pass/fail, schools can put more emphasis on the learning portion this year, in whatever configuration the school year looks like.

(5) Patience

This is not going to be easy on anyone. School systems need to be patient with parents and kids. Families need to be patient with the schools. Employers need to be patient with the parents who work for them.

And we all need to be patient with each other.

Hang in there. Stay safe. And you can always email me at JVL[at]thebulwark.com and I'll do my best to get back to you, if I can.

Jonathan V. Last
Executive Editor of The Bulwark
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2020, 04:45:18 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 14, 2020, 04:30:36 PM
So we're saying that @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) -- who was infected by COVID as evidenced by his positive antibody test -- is at fault for destroying the entire state of Florida by bringing the virus there?

Yeah, I can live with that. Good job, Badge!
I wish I were that important. But, I had it in early March and I didn't get to Florida until May 1.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 14, 2020, 04:59:21 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 14, 2020, 04:37:05 PM
  • A lot of the outbreaks in places like Georgia are outside of Atlanta... I doubt most of those rural areas are vacation hot spots.
I've never thought of Atlanta as a vacation spot or any place in Georgia
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 14, 2020, 05:04:19 PM
Moderna says its coronavirus vaccine trial produced ‘robust’ immune response in all patients

Moderna’s potential vaccine to prevent Covid-19 produced a “robust” immune response in all 45 patients in its early stage human trial, providing more promising data that the vaccine may give some protection against the coronavirus, according to newly released data published Tuesday evening in the peer-reviewed New England Journal of Medicine.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/moderna-says-its-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-produced-robust-immune-response-in-all-patients.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/moderna-says-its-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-produced-robust-immune-response-in-all-patients.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2020, 05:14:31 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 14, 2020, 04:59:21 PM
I've never thought of Atlanta as a vacation spot or any place in Georgia

The hot spots in the state are rural counties and Gwinnet county in metro Atlanta that has a large Hispanic population.  Places like Jekyll Island are creditable vacation spots.  Atlanta is a convention city.  I don't think folks in say Iowa think "Let's vacation in Georgia this year".

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 05:14:37 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 14, 2020, 04:59:21 PM
I've never thought of Atlanta as a vacation spot or any place in Georgia
I spent a couple of weeks of food and sleep deprivation near Dahlonega, GA.  I didn't seem like a vacation at the time, and it still doesn't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2020, 05:17:05 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 05:14:37 PM
I spent a couple of weeks of food and sleep deprivation near Dahlonega, GA.  I didn't seem like a vacation at the time, and it still doesn't.
You probably were nearer Cleveland and Gainesville than Dahlonega, which oddly enough has turned into a bit of a tourist spot.  There is a "wine trail" in northern Georgia that is hyped.  The wines actually are "OK" but over priced, IMHO.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 14, 2020, 05:18:24 PM
I suppose a trip to Augusta in the spring could be a golf vacation
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2020, 05:20:38 PM
I lived in Augusta, not a fan, though I suppose it has changed a lot.  I think they do play golf there on occasion.

I think I've been back maybe twice since 1964.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 05:21:57 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 14, 2020, 05:17:05 PM
You probably were nearer Cleveland and Gainesville than Dahlonega, which oddly enough has turned into a bit of a tourist spot.  There is a "wine trail" in northern Georgia that is hyped.  The wines actually are "OK" but over priced, IMHO.
That would depend on what day and what time of day/night.  Dahlonega was the town we drove through to get to our destination.
No wine for us.
But northern Georgia is very scenic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2020, 05:24:41 PM
I figured you were in Ranger school, which is near Cleveland, GA, at least the mountain training aspect of it.  Used to be a place there called "Yonah Burger" which was funny.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 05:41:09 PM
Yeah, that was it.  You may be right about it being closer to Cleveland, but I had never heard of Cleveland, GA, until you mentioned it.  There's a Cleveland, OK, too.  Heisman winner Billy Vessels was from there.

Yonah Burger--named after the locomotive?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 14, 2020, 05:54:55 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 14, 2020, 05:17:05 PM
You probably were nearer Cleveland and Gainesville than Dahlonega, which oddly enough has turned into a bit of a tourist spot.  There is a "wine trail" in northern Georgia that is hyped.  The wines actually are "OK" but over priced, IMHO.
I remember when I lived there going (with my parents who were visiting) going to Château Élan there by Road Atlanta--owned by the family behind Panoz.

A couple of college-aged twit girls were leading a tour telling us such pearls of wisdom as "the white wines, like, are good with, like, fish... but the, like, red wines, like, are better with steak."

And the wine was terrible. I'd spent decent portions of the previous few years on a little bit different "wine trail", i.e. Napa and Sonoma. North Georgia didn't really do it for me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on July 14, 2020, 06:11:26 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 05:41:09 PM
I had never heard of Cleveland, GA, until you mentioned it.  There's a Cleveland, OK, too.  Heisman winner Billy Vessels was from there.
John Heisman was born in Cleveland - the one by me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 06:26:16 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on July 14, 2020, 06:11:26 PM
John Heisman was born in Cleveland - the one by me
And the circle is unbroken.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2020, 06:27:10 PM
Chateau Elan is more akin to Disneyland than a wine place, though some told me their wines are better now.  I've been once and was unimpressed, a long time back.

We hit some places in north Georgia that had decent wines, but they were maybe $10 wines and priced at $20.  Virginia was the same I thought.

And then there is Costco, which is where I buy my wines ....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 14, 2020, 07:09:38 PM
Oddly enough, when my buddy got married at Buffalo Trace, we found a pretty good little winery on the bourbon trail.

https://www.loversleapwine.com/ (https://www.loversleapwine.com/)

We learned that there's a grape varietal grown in the Southeast called Norton used for wine, and it's distinctive but not half bad.

The story of finding this winery (particularly the route traveled to get there) is unsuitable for this thread lol...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 14, 2020, 07:45:36 PM
enuff said
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on July 14, 2020, 08:23:19 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 05:41:09 PM
Yeah, that was it.  You may be right about it being closer to Cleveland, but I had never heard of Cleveland, GA, until you mentioned it.  There's a Cleveland, OK, too.  Heisman winner Billy Vessels was from there.

Yonah Burger--named after the locomotive?
There’s also a Cleveland, TN. My wife went to college down there.  Her brother still lives there. Just visited him and his family on the 4th.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on July 14, 2020, 08:28:14 PM
Our local school board is starting school on September 8 but also offering an online option to families who prefer that.  Heard that around 600 students have signed up for that so far.

My kids’ private school is starting back the same date with no online options, but with some social distancing precautions and other modifications in place.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2020, 09:36:56 PM
Cleveland, GA is in White County, which not long ago was 100.00% "white".  I suspect that is not the case today, it probably is %5 Hispanic or so, but chicken processing and growing area north of the real Gainesville.

The north Georgia people were against secession in general, had no slaves, and did not want anyone of color anywhere nearby at all.  Deliverance and all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 11:17:39 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on July 14, 2020, 08:23:19 PM
There’s also a Cleveland, TN. My wife went to college down there.  Her brother still lives there. Just visited him and his family on the 4th.
I wonder how many Clevelands are named for President Grover as opposed to Moses Cleaveland.  Probably all but one.
I'm surprised to see that Cleveland proper is smaller than Tulsa proper.  391,000 compared to 401,000.  Population of the metro areas isn't even close, though.  2.06 million vs. 0.99 million.

Quote from: Kris60 on July 14, 2020, 08:28:14 PM

Our local school board is starting school on September 8 but also offering an online option to families who prefer that.  Heard that around 600 students have signed up for that so far.

My kids’ private school is starting back the same date with no online options, but with some social distancing precautions and other modifications in place.
"Some social distancing precautions"?  I wonder what that means, exactly.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 11:21:29 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 14, 2020, 09:36:56 PM
Cleveland, GA is in White County, which not long ago was 100.00% "white".  I suspect that is not the case today, it probably is %5 Hispanic or so, but chicken processing and growing area north of the real Gainesville.

The north Georgia people were against secession in general, had no slaves, and did not want anyone of color anywhere nearby at all.  Deliverance and all.
Eastern Tennessee was much the same way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 15, 2020, 12:23:05 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 11:17:39 PM
"Some social distancing precautions"?  I wonder what that means, exactly.


They're removing all tables from our classrooms and replacing them with individual desks, that are to be spaced out 4-6' apart.  
I'm not sure where that money is coming from, because it sure as hell hasn't been provided by any new legislation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 15, 2020, 12:39:58 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 14, 2020, 11:21:29 PM
Eastern Tennessee was much the same way.
If North Georgia and East Tennessee had as much balls as West By God Virginia, there might be 4 more Senators right now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 15, 2020, 12:48:41 AM
Directional states = directional schools in football  :57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on July 15, 2020, 01:14:00 AM
This to me is shocking. 

"So far, Iowa has conducted 443 COVID-19 tests on athletes, coaches and other staff members in the department. As of Monday, 25 of those came back positive, although the university is not specifying how many involved athletes." This is a 5.5% positive test rate. The virus is circulating much more than most people in Iowa understand.   (https://www.hawkcentral.com/story/sports/college/iowa/football/2020/07/14/covid-19-pledge-university-iowa-athletes-signed-doesnt-forfeit-legal-rights-gary-barta-hawkeyes/5436323002/)U of Iowa coaches, staff, and athletes tested (https://www.hawkcentral.com/story/sports/college/iowa/football/2020/07/14/covid-19-pledge-university-iowa-athletes-signed-doesnt-forfeit-legal-rights-gary-barta-hawkeyes/5436323002/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 15, 2020, 01:45:33 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on July 15, 2020, 01:14:00 AM
This to me is shocking.

"So far, Iowa has conducted 443 COVID-19 tests on athletes, coaches and other staff members in the department. As of Monday, 25 of those came back positive, although the university is not specifying how many involved athletes." This is a 5.5% positive test rate. The virus is circulating much more than most people in Iowa understand.   (https://www.hawkcentral.com/story/sports/college/iowa/football/2020/07/14/covid-19-pledge-university-iowa-athletes-signed-doesnt-forfeit-legal-rights-gary-barta-hawkeyes/5436323002/)U of Iowa coaches, staff, and athletes tested (https://www.hawkcentral.com/story/sports/college/iowa/football/2020/07/14/covid-19-pledge-university-iowa-athletes-signed-doesnt-forfeit-legal-rights-gary-barta-hawkeyes/5436323002/)
That is is that low or that high?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on July 15, 2020, 02:18:59 AM
5.5% of the population of Iowa athletics tested regardless of symptoms since circa June 4 seems very high to me.

As of July 12, 2020, 401,700 positive tests in New York state out of a population of 19,540,000, which is 2.056%. New York City was the epicenter for two months.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 15, 2020, 07:36:12 AM
This is some data I have not seen before, testing of a rep sample of the population.  Now, Iowa athletes are not really a rep sample of course, but it is a sample.

If 1 in 20 of the rep pop in IOWA are positive, it's obvious this thing is way way way out of "control", any semblance thereof, and we're silly to think we can somehow mitigate now.  We can try and protect the elderly and frail and that's it.

We dined out last night, outside, the restaurant was open in defiance of the mayor's order.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 15, 2020, 07:39:43 AM
You were also in defiance of the mayor's order. Just sayin'.

This thing will not be "under control" until there is a vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 15, 2020, 07:57:28 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 15, 2020, 07:39:43 AM
You were also in defiance of the mayor's order. Just sayin'.

This thing will not be "under control" until there is a vaccine.
Yeah, I don't care obviously.  The governor stated her order is unenforceable and obviously the police around here are "busy" doing real stuff.

The bar next to us was lively last night.  I guess it's a restaurant.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 15, 2020, 08:46:04 AM
Was that post meant for the 2020 thread?  Seems a bit of a non sequitur?

Anyway, our school district is now hinting they'll delay the first day from the original August 13th, to early September, and will most likely be 100% online throughout the first month.  They still have not cited any scientific data for their plans.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 15, 2020, 09:13:26 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on July 15, 2020, 02:18:59 AM
5.5% of the population of Iowa athletics tested regardless of symptoms since circa June 4 seems very high to me.

As of July 12, 2020, 401,700 positive tests in New York state out of a population of 19,540,000, which is 2.056%. New York City was the epicenter for two months.


this is meaningless without knowing how many total tests were performed

for example what if only 500,000 tests were done then the number of positive would be a lot more important
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 15, 2020, 09:17:07 AM
I would love to see data on 10,000 people tested that are a rep sample of the pop.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 15, 2020, 09:35:29 AM
I'd like to see my test results from June 29.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 15, 2020, 09:38:56 AM
 I'm looking at the behavior of the stock market with some disbelief, I really don't understand it, which I suppose it not unusual.

Buy on rumor, sell on news?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on July 15, 2020, 09:42:12 AM
I still haven't gotten my antibody test results back from a sample drawn on July 3.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 15, 2020, 10:19:10 AM
Not sure just how solid the Entertainment Times is but here is a vaccine article published by them that is interesting

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/life-style/health-fitness/health-news/russia-coronavirus-vaccine-update-russian-scientists-planning-to-launch-coronavirus-vaccine-by-mid-august/photostory/76956116.cms (https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/life-style/health-fitness/health-news/russia-coronavirus-vaccine-update-russian-scientists-planning-to-launch-coronavirus-vaccine-by-mid-august/photostory/76956116.cms)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 15, 2020, 12:13:17 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 15, 2020, 12:39:58 AM
If North Georgia and East Tennessee had as much balls as West By God Virginia, there might be 4 more Senators right now.
You could put western North Carolina in there too.
It's easier to have balls when you are on the border of the free states/Union like the northwestern counties of Virginia were.  No shade on the Mountaineer State--it still took some gumption to make the break.
Some authors have speculated that the secession vote in N. Carolina--the last state to secede--might have gone differently had Virginia not already seceded, leaving NC surrounded by seceded states.
BTW, the Oklahoma governor--who has not been seen in public wearing a mask, who attended the Trump "rally" in Tulsa not wearing a mask, who has attended many meetings since that rally not wearing a mask--has now tested positive for COVID-19.  He proclaims himself to be surprised that he is the first governor to turn up positive.
Karma's a bitch.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 15, 2020, 12:50:18 PM
I "know" we are the only country sucking at this, but...


https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-coronavirus-updates-20200715-agnz7c2v3vcotdletlqvabiyqq-story.html (https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-coronavirus-updates-20200715-agnz7c2v3vcotdletlqvabiyqq-story.html)


Maybe not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 15, 2020, 01:16:43 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 15, 2020, 12:13:17 PM
You could put western North Carolina in there too.
It's easier to have balls when you are on the border of the free states/Union like the northwestern counties of Virginia were.  No shade on the Mountaineer State--it still took some gumption to make the break.
Some authors have speculated that the secession vote in N. Carolina--the last state to secede--might have gone differently had Virginia not already seceded, leaving NC surrounded by seceded states.
BTW, the Oklahoma governor--who has not been seen in public wearing a mask, who attended the Trump "rally" in Tulsa not wearing a mask, who has attended many meetings since that rally not wearing a mask--has now tested positive for COVID-19.  He proclaims himself to be surprised that he is the first governor to turn up positive.
Karma's a bitch.
I thought the whole theory behind wearing a mask is not to protect yourself but to keep you from infecting others
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 15, 2020, 01:16:51 PM
Quote from: Hawkinole on July 15, 2020, 02:18:59 AM
5.5% of the population of Iowa athletics tested regardless of symptoms since circa June 4 seems very high to me.



well, these are very active 18-24 year olds from all over the country and probably outside the US

probably not much different percentage than that of this age group in Miami or Houston
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 15, 2020, 01:17:47 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 15, 2020, 01:16:43 PM
I thought the whole theory behind wearing a mask is not to protect yourself but to keep you from infecting others
supposedly it's protects both to some extent
if worn properly and it's a proper mask
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 15, 2020, 01:22:21 PM
The figures I've seen that "looked" reliable were that wearing a mask would reduce the percentage those you infect by about a third.

Wearing it for a healthy person would reduce chance of infection by about 5%.

So, if you're contagious, and would normally have infected 3 people, it would be only 2 if you wore a mask in company.  The R naught I see is usually lower than 3 of course, more around 1.2, so wearing a mask would reduce it under 1.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 15, 2020, 01:37:49 PM
so, we need a vaccine
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 15, 2020, 01:41:21 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 15, 2020, 01:37:49 PM
so, we need a vaccine
Wouldn't it be nice?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 15, 2020, 01:49:43 PM
This could well be the fastest a new vaccine has ever been widely employed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 15, 2020, 01:50:49 PM
well, if we create a new vaccine
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 15, 2020, 01:54:47 PM
Federal regulators are investigating a Texas laboratory that a Florida hospital chain dropped last week because of delayed and unreliable COVID-19 test results.

AdventHealth, which has 45 hospitals in nine states, terminated its Florida contract with MicroGen DX due to concerns about the validity of some of the 60,000 tests MicroGen had processed for the system because the lab left them at room temperature for days, according to an AdventHealth statement. The specimens should be refrigerated at 2 to 7 degrees Celsius (about 32 degrees Fahrenheit) and then put in freezers at -70 degrees Celsius after three days, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

MicroGen promotes shipping COVID-19 sputum (mucus) samples through FedEx on its website.

The company is also selling a saliva-only test that can be administered in a "hospital, clinic, drive-thru clinic or at-home,"  in all 50 states without an Emergency Use Authorization from the Food and Drug Administration, said MicroGen spokeswoman Ashley Moore. An authorized Emergency Use Authorization is required in a public health emergency, according to the Food and Drug Administration, for "any COVID-19 test for at-home testing, with or without the use of telemedicine."


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/05/21/fda-investigates-microgen-dx-lab-covid-19-test-results-questioned/5222340002/?fbclid=IwAR0x5gNnA-_fVVKdU5J7wgd6V9k5c1lWLqPKqbdqrKwytgF0IF2ztknzNO0 (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/05/21/fda-investigates-microgen-dx-lab-covid-19-test-results-questioned/5222340002/?fbclid=IwAR0x5gNnA-_fVVKdU5J7wgd6V9k5c1lWLqPKqbdqrKwytgF0IF2ztknzNO0)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 15, 2020, 04:21:49 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 15, 2020, 01:16:43 PM
I thought the whole theory behind wearing a mask is not to protect yourself but to keep you from infecting others
So, even if you take that either/or position, he's caught it because he is around people who also aren't wearing masks, and now he has probably passed it on to others because he hasn't been wearing a mask.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 15, 2020, 04:49:03 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 15, 2020, 04:21:49 PM
So, even if you take that either/or position, he's caught it because he is around people who also aren't wearing masks, and now he has probably passed it on to others because he hasn't been wearing a mask.
so far he has minimal symptoms 

lets hope he gets over it without it becoming serious
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 15, 2020, 05:23:14 PM
Yes, anti-Darwin award, rewarding incompetence.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 15, 2020, 05:43:36 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 15, 2020, 05:23:14 PM
Yes, anti-Darwin award, rewarding incompetence. 
orange man talk in code

longhorn not understand
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 15, 2020, 06:10:14 PM
The whole world is anti-Darwin. 

That's why I don't support a vaccine. Let everyone get COVID, and it'll be survival of the fittest. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 15, 2020, 06:17:37 PM
Are you sayin' you're gonna go out and lick toilets?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 15, 2020, 06:25:52 PM
You stick to your fetishes, and I'll stick to mine. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 15, 2020, 06:30:58 PM
I don't have any, but...

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1240371160078000128 (https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1240371160078000128)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 15, 2020, 07:17:06 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 15, 2020, 04:49:03 PM
so far he has minimal symptoms

lets hope he gets over it without it becoming serious
A restaurant in Tulsa where he ate last week has had to shut down and sanitize.
Actions have consequences.  That's great when the consequences fall on the actor.  Not so good when others bear the consequences.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on July 15, 2020, 08:56:12 PM
A disturbing amount of acquaintances are not only refusing to wear masks because 'mah freedom, they're being quite braggadocio about it.

Not wearing a mask is a lot like driving drunk. You might get away with it a few times, but when things go sideways everyone else pays for it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 15, 2020, 10:18:41 PM
Now one of our county commissioners and her husband both have it.  They think they got it at a gas station in the Texas panhandle, where nobody was wearing masks, on a trip to Colorado last week.

When in doubt, blame Texas!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 15, 2020, 10:22:46 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 15, 2020, 10:18:41 PM
Now one of our county commissioners and her husband both have it.  They think they got it at a gas station in the Texas panhandle, where nobody was wearing masks, on a trip to Colorado last week.

When in doubt, blame Texas!
thanks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 16, 2020, 12:53:21 AM
Glad to be of service, 320.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 16, 2020, 12:57:19 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 15, 2020, 10:18:41 PM
Now one of our county commissioners and her husband both have it.  They think they got it at a gas station in the Texas panhandle, where nobody was wearing masks, on a trip to Colorado last week.

When in doubt, blame Texas!
This is why I didn't drive cross-country to see family and friends this summer.  Interstates don't have exits as much as they have petri dishes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on July 16, 2020, 08:50:51 AM
I doubt they got it from a gas station in Texas.   If you travel by car, you just have to carry sanitizer and a mask and you'll be fine.   And if you can always go through a drive through for food and drink if you don't want to walk into a station.

A random station accusation sounds like someone who doesn't want to own their actions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 16, 2020, 08:57:53 AM
Indeed it seems... unlikely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 16, 2020, 09:09:31 AM
yup, if they'd been wearing masks and didn't touch anything.............

did a group of non mask wearing thugs corner them and spit on them?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 16, 2020, 09:40:01 AM
IOUX CITY, Iowa — American Airlines continues to offer three daily flights from Sioux City to Chicago and one daily flight to Dallas/Fort Worth as normal.

Chicago added Iowa to their list of 17 states where travelers must quarantine for two weeks upon arrival, however, it does not impact people traveling through Chicago.

States are being added to the list based on increasing numbers of confirmed cases of the coronavirus.

Sioux Gateway Airport Board President David Bernstein stated, ”All flights are still going through Chicago, so there are no restrictions. Sioux City is a great place to fly from because of the clean and open spaces within the terminal that allow for social distancing, along with short TSA lines.”


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 16, 2020, 09:46:18 AM
Makes sense.  In Texas, since March, there have been 2-week quarantine rules in place for states with high numbers of COVID cases.  Back then, that included New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, etc.

Those rules were certainly in place, but nearly impossible to enforce.  But still not a bad idea as a deterrent, anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 16, 2020, 09:49:24 AM
Were I to drive somewhere, I'd take normal precautions and figure I'd be fine.  I think I'd do take out only and avoid crowded bathrooms etc.

Might be worth checking a "heat map" of areas with higher case counts en route.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 16, 2020, 10:25:04 AM
so, I'm flying into Chicago for business.  a one day visit.

I'm to fly in 14 days early and sit in the hotel ordering room service until the meeting?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 16, 2020, 10:25:55 AM
Yes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 16, 2020, 10:41:12 AM
good idea

less people following the rule than people wearing masks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 16, 2020, 10:59:57 AM
Zoom.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 16, 2020, 11:23:42 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 16, 2020, 10:59:57 AM
Zoom.
speaking of zoom 

I wonder how their stock is doing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 16, 2020, 11:28:18 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 16, 2020, 10:25:04 AM
so, I'm flying into Chicago for business.  a one day visit.

I'm to fly in 14 days early and sit in the hotel ordering room service until the meeting?
On a homebrew forum, one of the guys had to fly to Australia, be put up in a hotel for 2 weeks in quarantine, then spend a week on site for work.

Apparently someone there is willing to pay for it to get two older airplanes inspected and quoted for what it will take to return them to airworthiness. 

Most business activities won't require something like this, but where there's enough financial interest to do it and it can't be done remotely, you do what you have to do, right?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 16, 2020, 11:32:53 AM
I'd drive, in a rental. FF ain't that far away from Chicago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 16, 2020, 11:34:43 AM
Looks like we're going to make a trip to Oregon next weekend. Pretty much going to do what is suggested here--drive straight through (12 hrs), stopping only for drive through or bathroom breaks, with masks and hand sanitizer used any time we exit the vehicle.

Going to wife's mom & stepdad's house. They're in a county with only 12 documented cases since the start of this thing, and we'll basically be staying in their house pretty much the whole time (although I might take the golf clubs up because they live on a course), so it should be pretty minimal risk. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 16, 2020, 11:44:28 AM
take the clubs

Yup, I'd drive to Chitown, not too far, around 8 hours.

But, I guess when I get out of the car I'm supposed to quarantine
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on July 16, 2020, 12:02:55 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 16, 2020, 11:34:43 AM
Looks like we're going to make a trip to Oregon next weekend. Pretty much going to do what is suggested here--drive straight through (12 hrs), stopping only for drive through or bathroom breaks, with masks and hand sanitizer used any time we exit the vehicle.

Going to wife's mom & stepdad's house. They're in a county with only 12 documented cases since the start of this thing, and we'll basically be staying in their house pretty much the whole time (although I might take the golf clubs up because they live on a course), so it should be pretty minimal risk.
As long as the course owner doesn't ding you for trying to slide in a few free rounds
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 16, 2020, 01:12:59 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on July 16, 2020, 12:02:55 PM
As long as the course owner doesn't ding you for trying to slide in a few free rounds
I haven't played in 5 years, so even after paying for my round I'll take enough swings to get my money's worth!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 16, 2020, 01:38:15 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 16, 2020, 11:23:42 AM
speaking of zoom

I wonder how their stock is doing
They're a Chinese company.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 16, 2020, 01:59:06 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 16, 2020, 01:38:15 PM
They're a Chinese company.
founded by a Chinese American billionaire located in California

not sure its an actual Chinese company

their stock has gone from $67 to $250 over the last 6 months

This is one of those stocks that an investor could have seen as a good potential investment
when the virus hit

I didnt but I have missed a lot of good investments
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 16, 2020, 03:37:54 PM
hopefully my advisor checked this one

my portfolio is back above where is was in February

so is my daughter's 529 plan
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 16, 2020, 05:53:10 PM
GA governor suspends all local mask mandates.

Arizona had that...until the graph broke through the top edge.  The stupid following the stupid.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 16, 2020, 06:14:14 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 16, 2020, 05:53:10 PM
GA governor suspends all local mask mandates.

Arizona had that...until the graph broke through the top edge.  The stupid following the stupid. 
well ya still got California
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 16, 2020, 06:17:41 PM
some maybe good news here in Texas where hospitalizations are down for 2nd day in a row


looks like we might be flattening the curve on that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 16, 2020, 06:24:48 PM
I don't see how a mask mandate can be enforced.  The one the mayor came out with exempted you if you were 6 feet from another person.  In fact, it's rare that you are not in life, even in a city.  And are the police going to be able to write tickets for infractions?

I'm all for masks, the best way may be repeated explanation and showing yourself with a mask at all times.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 16, 2020, 06:44:55 PM
some encouraging vaccine news

https://www.greaterkashmir.com/news/health/oxford-university-covid19-vaccine-hopes-rise-with-strong-trial-results/ (https://www.greaterkashmir.com/news/health/oxford-university-covid19-vaccine-hopes-rise-with-strong-trial-results/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 16, 2020, 07:10:53 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 16, 2020, 05:53:10 PM
GA governor suspends all local mask mandates.

Arizona had that...until the graph broke through the top edge.  The stupid following the stupid. 
Wait, whut? 

Can't find it online easily right now... Got a link?

Knowing Newsom, he would have said that no local areas can choose to be exempt from his own statewide mask order.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 16, 2020, 07:16:14 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 16, 2020, 06:17:41 PM
some maybe good news here in Texas where hospitalizations are down for 2nd day in a row


looks like we might be flattening the curve on that
Daily new cases have shown no sign of flattening in Texas, so I'm going to say it's temporal noise in the numbers.

I know for a long time we were debating whether rising cases would lead to a rising death toll, and trying to estimate whether it was not going to happen (your position) or whether it was just a lag (my position). I think that debate has been settled.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 16, 2020, 07:19:03 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 16, 2020, 06:24:48 PM
I don't see how a mask mandate can be enforced.  
This couldn't be less relevant.  The message is the thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 16, 2020, 07:20:22 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 16, 2020, 07:10:53 PM
Wait, whut?

Can't find it online easily right now... Got a link?

Knowing Newsom, he would have said that no local areas can choose to be exempt from his own statewide mask order.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/georgia-governor-brian-kemp-bans-city-face-mask-orders-coronavirus-pandemic/

 (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/georgia-governor-brian-kemp-bans-city-face-mask-orders-coronavirus-pandemic/)All news outlets have it.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 16, 2020, 07:27:12 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 16, 2020, 07:20:22 PM
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/georgia-governor-brian-kemp-bans-city-face-mask-orders-coronavirus-pandemic/

 (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/georgia-governor-brian-kemp-bans-city-face-mask-orders-coronavirus-pandemic/)All news outlets have it. 
Sorry, I misread you. I thought you said "CA Governor"... My mistake.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 16, 2020, 07:38:43 PM
No, the south is trying to rise again....coronavirus deaths, that is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 16, 2020, 07:43:50 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 16, 2020, 07:16:14 PM
Daily new cases have shown no sign of flattening in Texas, so I'm going to say it's temporal noise in the numbers.

I know for a long time we were debating whether rising cases would lead to a rising death toll, and trying to estimate whether it was not going to happen (your position) or whether it was just a lag (my position). I think that debate has been settled.
Yes deaths have increased but at least not to the same extent that new cases have at least net yet

this the hospitalizations curve I was speaking about

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f (https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f)

you need to select the Hospitals Statewide tab at bottom

 (https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f)like I said it sure looks like we are flattening the curve

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 16, 2020, 07:57:59 PM
Yeah not sure what bwar is looking at, but the Texas hospitalization data certainly demonstrates a recent change in inflection.

Texas is doing a substantial number of tests at this point, so as we've been saying for the past 4 months now, case rates are a near-useless data point.

The hospitalization rate inflection point that indicated a trend in the wrong direction starting around 6/1, seems to have flipped the right way, around 7/5-7/8.  Not anywhere close to out of the woods, but it's absolutely positive news.

Especially considering the mask orders and bar shut-downs didn't really hit until right around that second inflection point, and so I'm expecting an even more positive trend in reduction of new hospitalizations in coming weeks as that becomes factored in.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 16, 2020, 07:59:50 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 16, 2020, 07:43:50 PM
Yes deaths have increased but at least not to the same extent that new cases have at least net yet

this the hospitalizations curve I was speaking about

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f (https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f)

you need to select the Hospitals Statewide tab at bottom

 (https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f)like I said it sure looks like we are flattening the curve
BTW one way to leave the hospital is to get better... There's also another way, and that way has been increasing fast in TX too...

But yeah, rate of increase has slowed quite a bit. Hopefully it starts to decline. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 16, 2020, 08:21:34 PM
I blame these spikes on youthful stupidity, protests and businesses being less than careful. Not as much on the latter as the first two groupings. The latter are just trying to survive, and provide jobs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 16, 2020, 09:33:30 PM
Lol
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 16, 2020, 10:14:49 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 16, 2020, 08:21:34 PM
I blame these spikes on youthful stupidity, protests and businesses being less than careful. Not as much on the latter as the first two groupings. The latter are just trying to survive, and provide jobs.
I don't know about the protests, I'm really not seeing much indication that this is spreading outside in the open air.   

Youuthful stupidity, for sure.

And also, on the business openings and most specifically the bar reopenings-- I just don't think we had any idea how quickly it would spread under those circumstances.  Arguably, we could have and should have known, or could have guessed, but the hypothesis had not been tested with other variables frozen and isolated-- the actual experiment just hadn't been run yet.

Now, it has.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on July 17, 2020, 01:54:12 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 16, 2020, 06:24:48 PM
I don't see how a mask mandate can be enforced.  The one the mayor came out with exempted you if you were 6 feet from another person.  In fact, it's rare that you are not in life, even in a city.  And are the police going to be able to write tickets for infractions?

I'm all for masks, the best way may be repeated explanation and showing yourself with a mask at all times.
I agree with everything you say here. My wife and daughter traveled to Galena, Illinois a few days ago. It is a small tourist town, once the home to U.S. Grant. Lots of little shops for women. My wife and daughter are religious about wearing masks. My daughter is a PT student, does clinicals, wears one all day, and is acclimated to it. I am not as acclimated but wear one when I go into a store.

They came back from Galena, and said, "Everyone is wearing a mask. Even out on the street."

I checked and found that Illinois is one of the states with a mask requirement if 6' social distance cannot be maintained. They felt so much more comfortable in Galena that my daughter thought maybe she should look for work in Illinois after she graduates.

Once it becomes a norm by many, more will follow, in part the result of the requirement, but in part because people tend to not want to appear out-of-place. When mask wearers make non-mask wearers feel out-of-place and discourteous by their sheer numbers, more will come around. Most people do not want to be seen as discourteous. We still have people being ticketed for seatbelt violations. At first that standard was not well-respected. There will always be a few violators. And many of those will come around if they are ticketed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 17, 2020, 06:44:11 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 15, 2020, 01:16:43 PM
I thought the whole theory behind wearing a mask is not to protect yourself but to keep you from infecting others
No, the theory of wearing masks is to scare everyone into submission. I have read quite a few studies that suggest that wearing a mask is useless to contain this virus. However, those studies are usually ignored by those wanting to perpetuate the fear. 

I know that will not be a popular opinion on this site, but this is how I see it.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 17, 2020, 06:53:42 AM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 17, 2020, 06:44:11 AM
No, the theory of wearing masks is to scare everyone into submission. I have read quite a few studies that suggest that wearing a mask is useless to contain this virus. However, those studies are usually ignored by those wanting to perpetuate the fear.

I know that will not be a popular opinion on this site, but this is how I see it. 
I don't know about that - the science is uncertain, though there is certainly evidence that mask wearing reduced transmission and can be very helpful (with other things).  The other part is that masks are a low cost and low effort tool, so the downside is minimal while the upside could be extremely high.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 17, 2020, 06:56:18 AM
Quote from: utee94 on July 16, 2020, 10:14:49 PM
I don't know about the protests, I'm really not seeing much indication that this is spreading outside in the open air. 

Serious? These people were shoulder to shoulder in the street for hours. If they guy next to you had the virus and you were breathing the air he was exhaling, there is a good chance you got the virus there. The fact that the media and some in the government are trying to say that you can't go to an outdoor sporting event because of Covid are also saying that gathering in large mobs, packed together in the street did NOT spread the virus. Do you see the hypocrisy here? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 17, 2020, 07:03:42 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on July 17, 2020, 06:53:42 AM
I don't know about that - the science is uncertain, though there is certainly evidence that mask wearing reduced transmission and can be very helpful (with other things).  The other part is that masks are a low cost and low effort tool, so the downside is minimal while the upside could be extremely high. 
There are supposedly 2 reasons to wear a mask. 1.) To protect yourself from catching the virus and 2.) to keep from spreading it.

As for the first reason, the virus itself is so small (forgive me as I don't have the actual size in front of me at the moment) that simply wearing a cloth or paper mask is like trying to put up a split rail fence to keep out mosquitoes.  It simply does not work.

In regards to reason number 2, it MAY help to contain water droplets that COULD be expelled by someone when they cough for sneeze as that would be the primary way to spread the virus in a public setting (other than directly in someone's face for an extended period of time, something like 15 mins, or licking toilet seats). However, if a person covers their mouth when they cough or their nose when they sneeze (you know, like normal polite people have done for hundreds of years), where are these water droplets going? Into the person's arm or hand that they use to cover with.

That being said, my advice is that if you are showing symptoms, STAY HOME (like we have done for centuries). Don't be out and about. If you come across someone that is showing symptoms, walk away from them (like I have ALWAYS done).

But if you feel more comfortable wearing a mask, by all means wear it. I don't fault anyone for wanting to protect themselves. If you are someone that is potentially more at risk from the virus (have other health issues or are elderly) I would avoid areas with a large number of people. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 17, 2020, 07:27:27 AM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 17, 2020, 06:56:18 AM
Serious? These people were shoulder to shoulder in the street for hours. If they guy next to you had the virus and you were breathing the air he was exhaling, there is a good chance you got the virus there. The fact that the media and some in the government are trying to say that you can't go to an outdoor sporting event because of Covid are also saying that gathering in large mobs, packed together in the street did NOT spread the virus. Do you see the hypocrisy here?

Yes, I see the hypocrisy.  No, I don't think that outdoor transmission is much of a thing.  There were many large cities with huge protests-- like NYC-- that did not see an uptick in cases/hospitalizations/deaths corresponding to the timeline of the protests.

I don't think the football stadiums themselves are much of a concern for spread.  I do think that the bathroom facilities, luxury suites with recirculated air, indoor elevators and escalators that carry tens of thousands to their seats in a stadium like UT-Austin-- those are all very likely zones to spread the infection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 17, 2020, 07:32:58 AM
Quote from: utee94 on July 17, 2020, 07:27:27 AM
Yes, I see the hypocrisy.  No, I don't think that outdoor transmission is much of a thing.  There were many large cities with huge protests-- like NYC-- that did not see an uptick in cases/hospitalizations/deaths corresponding to the timeline of the protests.

I don't think the football stadiums themselves are much of a concern for spread.  I do think that the bathroom facilities, luxury suites with recirculated air, indoor elevators and escalators that carry tens of thousands to their seats in a stadium like UT-Austin-- those are all very likely zones to spread the infection.

I agree that the areas of spread are usually going to be confined spaces with circulated air. Most of the areas where the infection has spread has done so where people have been primarily indoors. The hot spots right now are Florida, Texas and Arizona. All of these states are currently very warm and I would bet that a majority of people are staying inside in the AC.

My brother lives in the Tampa area and he always says that they essentially trade summer for winter. While we stay indoors all winter, they stay indoors all summer. Having lived briefly in San Antonio years ago, I stayed inside as much as possible during the heat of the day. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 17, 2020, 07:38:50 AM
I personally like the heat, and on weekends I'm outdoors all day in the summer.  But I'm certainly not running or cycling after maybe 11 AM from June 15th thru September 10th...

Also, I have a boat and a swimming pool, so my outdoor activities in the summer are generally water-related... ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 17, 2020, 08:06:39 AM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 17, 2020, 07:03:42 AM
There are supposedly 2 reasons to wear a mask. 1.) To protect yourself from catching the virus and 2.) to keep from spreading it.

As for the first reason, the virus itself is so small (forgive me as I don't have the actual size in front of me at the moment) that simply wearing a cloth or paper mask is like trying to put up a split rail fence to keep out mosquitoes.  It simply does not work.

In regards to reason number 2, it MAY help to contain water droplets that COULD be expelled by someone when they cough for sneeze as that would be the primary way to spread the virus in a public setting (other than directly in someone's face for an extended period of time, something like 15 mins, or licking toilet seats). However, if a person covers their mouth when they cough or their nose when they sneeze (you know, like normal polite people have done for hundreds of years), where are these water droplets going? Into the person's arm or hand that they use to cover with.

That being said, my advice is that if you are showing symptoms, STAY HOME (like we have done for centuries). Don't be out and about. If you come across someone that is showing symptoms, walk away from them (like I have ALWAYS done).

But if you feel more comfortable wearing a mask, by all means wear it. I don't fault anyone for wanting to protect themselves. If you are someone that is potentially more at risk from the virus (have other health issues or are elderly) I would avoid areas with a large number of people.

Yes, a mask doesn't filter a a virus particle.  However, no one gets sick from on virus particle, either.  Like I said, the science is uncertain but from observational studies there appears to be a benefit to wearing masks, and certainly the better mask the better the benefit.  It could be an additional tool in the toolbox to reduce spread, so it has less to do with personal feelings of comfort and more to do with how much someone is willing to do so we can have a healthy and free society. Everyone's comfort with that varies - some are willing to do nothing and some are willing to do a lot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2020, 08:06:54 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on July 17, 2020, 01:54:12 AM
I agree with everything you say here. My wife and daughter traveled to Galena, Illinois a few days ago. It is a small tourist town, once the home to U.S. Grant. Lots of little shops for women. My wife and daughter are religious about wearing masks. My daughter is a PT student, does clinicals, wears one all day, and is acclimated to it. I am not as acclimated but wear one when I go into a store.

They came back from Galena, and said, "Everyone is wearing a mask. Even out on the street."

I checked and found that Illinois is one of the states with a mask requirement if 6' social distance cannot be maintained. They felt so much more comfortable in Galena that my daughter thought maybe she should look for work in Illinois after she graduates.

Once it becomes a norm by many, more will follow, in part the result of the requirement, but in part because people tend to not want to appear out-of-place. When mask wearers make non-mask wearers feel out-of-place and discourteous by their sheer numbers, more will come around. Most people do not want to be seen as discourteous. We still have people being ticketed for seatbelt violations. At first that standard was not well-respected. There will always be a few violators. And many of those will come around if they are ticketed.

All the cool kids are leaving this shithole.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 17, 2020, 08:33:23 AM
I did some work on filtration "back in the day".  The idea that a filter can only filter by "interception", e.g., the holes are smaller than the particulate, is not really correct.  That is one means of filtration.

And of course the contagion is spread by droplets infected with virus, not viral entities themselves.  Droplets, even microdroplets, can be filtered by a simple mask.  If you sneeze, the volume of droplets you expel around you is significantly reduced by any face covering.

You don't need a respirator for this, and if you've ever worn a properly fitted respirator you understand they are difficult to breathe if doing more than sitting.

Look at the numbers in Asian countries where mask wearing is a given, they are MUCH lower than ours.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on July 17, 2020, 08:48:18 AM
Quote from: utee94 on July 16, 2020, 10:14:49 PM
I don't know about the protests, I'm really not seeing much indication that this is spreading outside in the open air. 

Youuthful stupidity, for sure.

And also, on the business openings and most specifically the bar reopenings-- I just don't think we had any idea how quickly it would spread under those circumstances.  Arguably, we could have and should have known, or could have guessed, but the hypothesis had not been tested with other variables frozen and isolated-- the actual experiment just hadn't been run yet.

Now, it has.
4th of July parties seem to be spark that is pushing up numbers in our neighborhood and school district.  Not exclusively, but it feels like a new case comes with "...and they were at a 4th of July party".    A lot of HS and college age kids spreading it as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 17, 2020, 09:01:29 AM
Georgia new case count MAY be leveling off, albeit at a high level, hospital bed usage is still going higher, deaths remain fairly low, edging up now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2020, 09:09:58 AM
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronavirus/os-ne-coronavirus-kissimmee-parties-vacation-rentals-covid-20200717-7v3wiua6d5bvnafdbkndvuklim-story.html (https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronavirus/os-ne-coronavirus-kissimmee-parties-vacation-rentals-covid-20200717-7v3wiua6d5bvnafdbkndvuklim-story.html)

Block parties at vacation rentals. Hmm.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 17, 2020, 10:15:48 AM
Quote from: Entropy on July 17, 2020, 08:48:18 AM
4th of July parties seem to be spark that is pushing up numbers in our neighborhood and school district.  Not exclusively, but it feels like a new case comes with "...and they were at a 4th of July party".    A lot of HS and college age kids spreading it as well.

I think this is where people are starting to conflate "outdoor spread" with "kids being WAY too close to one another spread."  Since so many indoor venues are closed, of course the kids are having to party outdoors quite a bit.  Plus, it's summer, and that's what kids do anyway.  But I could see quite a bit of the spread coming more from sharing drinks, sharing beer bongs, sharing food, not washing hands, touching faces, touching every other body part, making out, hooking up-- those are all quite a bit closer activities, than we had for OUR 4th of July get-together, where we had eight people at my house, family and friends, hanging out on the back patio or in the pool, but always several feet from one another, and not sharing food/drink/containers/etc.  And of course folks only going indoors to use the bathroom.

We did the same for Mother's day, Father's Day, and Memorial Day.  No COVID spread, no issues at all.

But last weekend out on the lake, I saw dozens of boats with 9-14 HS/college/early 20s kids packed onto those boats, no masks, partying, drinking beer, bonging beer, all up in each others' business touching and stuff-- yeah, that's the kind of outdoor activity that could certainly lead to the spread.  But that's a lot more than just standing next to one another.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on July 17, 2020, 10:39:51 AM
^Also, there wasn't a case surge in mid-June in Minnesota despite the MDH pushing hard to test (and arguably over-sampling) areas that were hit hard by rioting.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-pbc-health-director-covid-children-20200714-xcdall2tsrd4riim2nwokvmsxm-story.html (https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-pbc-health-director-covid-children-20200714-xcdall2tsrd4riim2nwokvmsxm-story.html)

So much for re-opening schools for full-time, in-person instruction. As of last Friday, 31% of U18s tested in Florida are coming up positive. 

I don't know the distribution of these tests over time, but when you have a sample size of 54,000 it's much easier to filter out noise. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 17, 2020, 10:46:51 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on July 17, 2020, 10:39:51 AM
So much for re-opening schools for full-time, in-person instruction. As of last Friday, 31% of U18s tested in Florida are coming up positive.
Good. They already have herd immunity in the U18 age group. Ship those little bastards to school.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 17, 2020, 10:47:38 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 17, 2020, 10:46:51 AM
Good. They already have herd immunity in the U18 age group. Ship those little bastards to school.
Yup.  

Git r done!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 17, 2020, 10:49:43 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/17/texas-officials-order-extra-body-bags-mortuary-trucks-as-state-braces-for-rising-coronavirus-deaths.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/17/texas-officials-order-extra-body-bags-mortuary-trucks-as-state-braces-for-rising-coronavirus-deaths.html)

Doesn't sound good at all.

What if this thing really gets out of control on us?  Is that possible?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on July 17, 2020, 10:53:29 AM
Quote from: utee94 on July 17, 2020, 10:15:48 AM
I think this is where people are starting to conflate "outdoor spread" with "kids being WAY too close to one another spread."  Since so many indoor venues are closed, of course the kids are having to party outdoors quite a bit.  Plus, it's summer, and that's what kids do anyway.  But I could see quite a bit of the spread coming more from sharing drinks, sharing beer bongs, sharing food, not washing hands, touching faces, touching every other body part, making out, hooking up-- those are all quite a bit closer activities, than we had for OUR 4th of July get-together, where we had eight people at my house, family and friends, hanging out on the back patio or in the pool, but always several feet from one another, and not sharing food/drink/containers/etc.  And of course folks only going indoors to use the bathroom.

We did the same for Mother's day, Father's Day, and Memorial Day.  No COVID spread, no issues at all.

But last weekend out on the lake, I saw dozens of boats with 9-14 HS/college/early 20s kids packed onto those boats, no masks, partying, drinking beer, bonging beer, all up in each others' business touching and stuff-- yeah, that's the kind of outdoor activity that could certainly lead to the spread.  But that's a lot more than just standing next to one another.



I don't disagree with your points, but unfortunately, most of the cases I'm aware of (or neighbors talk about) involved indoor/outdoor socializing.    I'm confident you examples are equal to being indoors, but I think there was more indoor socializing than people admit based upon what has happened around KC.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2020, 10:54:51 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 17, 2020, 10:49:43 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/17/texas-officials-order-extra-body-bags-mortuary-trucks-as-state-braces-for-rising-coronavirus-deaths.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/17/texas-officials-order-extra-body-bags-mortuary-trucks-as-state-braces-for-rising-coronavirus-deaths.html)

Doesn't sound good at all.

What if this thing really gets out of control on us?  Is that possible?
Some would argue that it already is out of control. I'd argue that it is not, and that it's still making its way around the country. Interstate travel, and all that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2020, 10:59:22 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 17, 2020, 10:49:43 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/17/texas-officials-order-extra-body-bags-mortuary-trucks-as-state-braces-for-rising-coronavirus-deaths.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/17/texas-officials-order-extra-body-bags-mortuary-trucks-as-state-braces-for-rising-coronavirus-deaths.html)

Doesn't sound good at all.

What if this thing really gets out of control on us?  Is that possible?
....and this is relatively mild.  Our American ideals of 'no one can tell me what to do' and 'I'll do what's best for me' don't exactly vibe well when it comes to infectious disease.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2020, 11:02:07 AM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 17, 2020, 06:44:11 AM
No, the theory of wearing masks is to scare everyone into submission. I have read quite a few studies that suggest that wearing a mask is useless to contain this virus. However, those studies are usually ignored by those wanting to perpetuate the fear.

I know that will not be a popular opinion on this site, but this is how I see it. 
It's not about being popular or not, your post is irresponsible.  Places with actual, widespread mask use are on the back end of this thing, and the mighty USA is still waist-deep in it because of our large, loud 'n proud population refusing to do the right thing.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2020, 11:05:00 AM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 17, 2020, 07:03:42 AM

That being said, my advice is that if you are showing symptoms, STAY HOME (like we have done for centuries). Don't be out and about. If you come across someone that is showing symptoms, walk away from them (like I have ALWAYS done).
This is where you show you're out of your depth here.  You're posting this for a disease that is 70-80% asymptomatic.  Please stop.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 17, 2020, 11:07:30 AM
Quote from: Entropy on July 17, 2020, 10:53:29 AM

I don't disagree with your points, but unfortunately, most of the cases I'm aware of (or neighbors talk about) involved indoor/outdoor socializing.    I'm confident you examples are equal to being indoors, but I think there was more indoor socializing than people admit based upon what has happened around KC.
Could be, I certainly can't speak for them or anywhere else.  We haven't really had any spikes associated with gatherings for Mother's Day, Father's Day, Memorial Day, or the 4th of July.  If anything we're seeing hospitalizations level off right now in the timeframe when we'd expect to see spikes from 4th of July activity.  So either A) people didn't gather much for the 4th or B) they did so but remained outdoors (like we did).  That's only my speculation of course.

But rather than those holiday events, or the protests and riots, our recent increases I think can be tied pretty closely to the loosening of indoor restrictions (allowing bars to open and allowing an increase to inside dining capacity in late May), as well as a general, increasing laxness to masking and protocol since I guess some people thought we'd "beaten" it or something.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on July 17, 2020, 11:08:46 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 17, 2020, 10:46:51 AM
Good. They already have herd immunity in the U18 age group. Ship those little bastards to school.
It's not the kids that this is a big problem for. It's everyone else in the building.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 17, 2020, 11:13:39 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on July 17, 2020, 11:08:46 AM
It's not the kids that this is a big problem for. It's everyone else in the building.

Still haven't seen any rigorous scientific evidence that child-to-adult spread is a major risk (at least not at the middle school and younger levels). We know that adult-to-adult spread certainly is a risk, so adults should stay masked and stay away from one another within the school building.  I don't think these problems are impossible to overcome.

But if the science really does confirm that there is high risk of transmission for in-person school, and there are no potential solutions for preventing the spread (like social distancing and masks-- the same protocols we use when we're in grocery stores, in businesses that are "essential" etc.), then we should just cancel school for the 2020/2021 schoolyear.  If we value both human life, and the education of our children, then that's the correct solution.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 17, 2020, 11:25:57 AM
Quote from: utee94 on July 16, 2020, 10:14:49 PM
I don't know about the protests, I'm really not seeing much indication that this is spreading outside in the open air. 

Youuthful stupidity, for sure.

And also, on the business openings and most specifically the bar reopenings-- I just don't think we had any idea how quickly it would spread under those circumstances.  Arguably, we could have and should have known, or could have guessed, but the hypothesis had not been tested with other variables frozen and isolated-- the actual experiment just hadn't been run yet.

Now, it has.
Stupid young people are often empowered by their stupid parents.  I see whole families proudly announcing that they will not follow any mask ordinance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2020, 11:26:01 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 05, 2020, 11:42:08 PM
Im sorry you feel that way you have pegged the worry scale

there is no way we will go to 100,000 cases a day and he should be ashamed for even suggesting it
Up to 77,000 cases in one day, and growing.  
Hmm, who to trust, longhorn or Dr. Fauci.  Longhorn....or Fauci.  Hmm...tough one.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2020, 11:26:37 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 17, 2020, 11:25:57 AM
Stupid young people are often empowered by their stupid parents.  I see whole families proudly announcing that they will not follow any mask ordinance.
Let's bet a dollar on who they're voting for in November.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 17, 2020, 11:28:26 AM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 17, 2020, 06:44:11 AM
No, the theory of wearing masks is to scare everyone into submission. I have read quite a few studies that suggest that wearing a mask is useless to contain this virus. However, those studies are usually ignored by those wanting to perpetuate the fear.

I know that will not be a popular opinion on this site, but this is how I see it.
Got links to those studies?
Who would gain by getting Americans (and the entire rest of the world) to "submit" to wearing masks?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2020, 11:42:15 AM
Oh damn, the mask lobby!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 17, 2020, 11:50:34 AM
Big Mask is really working its mojo.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2020, 11:54:47 AM
Quote from: utee94 on July 17, 2020, 11:13:39 AM
Still haven't seen any rigorous scientific evidence that child-to-adult spread is a major risk (at least not at the middle school and younger levels). We know that adult-to-adult spread certainly is a risk, so adults should stay masked and stay away from one another within the school building.  I don't think these problems are impossible to overcome.
I'm not saying you're wrong here, but I'm going to highlight the important phrasing.
When we're dealing with the sheer volume of 50 million students and 3.5 million teachers, even a minor or infinitesimal risk still yields dead kids and dead teachers.

I'm not going to say a teacher's life is worth more than any other profession's, but I will point out the reasonable expectation of choosing certain careers is different.  A person going into medicine/nursing/EMT work knows they're going to be exposed to this sort of thing, or at least the reasonable possibility of it.  Police officers know, going in, that their job will be more dangerous than average, dealing with criminals and guns and such.

Teachers never signed up for all the school shootings that happened, despite probably nearly 100% of them willing to take a bullet for their students.  We didn't choose this profession thinking we'd be thrown into buildings full of contagious people (exaggeration, I know) against our will.  But that's not even it - much like the sacrificial attitude in an active shooter situation, teachers are, by and large, an extremely empathetic population.  It's not even about us, it's about the small % of young deaths that will become inevitable.  It's about kids bringing the virus home and their parents or grandparents dying.  

We simply don't want to be a part of that.  And we've got normal-citizen-filled school boards making these decisions, influenced by (in some places) no-mask-for-me communities.  Hell, an Orange Co., CA school board voted to start back school with no masks or preventative measures.  It's insanity.  They're guaranteeing SOME child deaths, teacher deaths, and family deaths.  Dead people who wouldn't be dead, otherwise.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 17, 2020, 11:56:07 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2020, 11:26:37 AM
Let's bet a dollar on who they're voting for in November.
hush orange man or we'll cut off your oats
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2020, 11:57:35 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 17, 2020, 11:56:07 AM
hush orange man or we'll cut off your oats
I don't even know what that means, but I'll assume it's a compliment and that you agree with everything I say.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 17, 2020, 11:57:42 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2020, 11:54:47 AM
I'm not saying you're wrong here, but I'm going to highlight the important phrasing.
When we're dealing with the sheer volume of 50 million students and 3.5 million teachers, even a minor or infinitesimal risk still yields dead kids and dead teachers.

I'm not going to say a teacher's life is worth more than any other profession's, but I will point out the reasonable expectation of choosing certain careers is different.  A person going into medicine/nursing/EMT work knows they're going to be exposed to this sort of thing, or at least the reasonable possibility of it.  Police officers know, going in, that their job will be more dangerous than average, dealing with criminals and guns and such.

Teachers never signed up for all the school shootings that happened, despite probably nearly 100% of them willing to take a bullet for their students.  We didn't choose this profession thinking we'd be thrown into buildings full of contagious people (exaggeration, I know) against our will.  But that's not even it - much like the sacrificial attitude in an active shooter situation, teachers are, by and large, an extremely empathetic population.  It's not even about us, it's about the small % of young deaths that will become inevitable.  It's about kids bringing the virus home and their parents or grandparents dying. 

We simply don't want to be a part of that.  And we've got normal-citizen-filled school boards making these decisions, influenced by (in some places) no-mask-for-me communities.  Hell, an Orange Co., CA school board voted to start back school with no masks or preventative measures.  It's insanity.  They're guaranteeing SOME child deaths, teacher deaths, and family deaths.  Dead people who wouldn't be dead, otherwise.




Hey, I get it. 

The alternative solution I'm offering, is canceling the 2020/2021 schoolyear.  We've canceled bars, we've canceled restaurants, we've canceled cleaning companies and engineering firms and retailers, we've canceled cruise ships and amusement parks and water parks and thousands of other types of businesses.

If we believe there is risk-- if the science points us there-- then why wouldn't we cancel the schoolyear and try again next year?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 17, 2020, 12:12:55 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 17, 2020, 11:07:30 AM
Could be, I certainly can't speak for them or anywhere else.  We haven't really had any spikes associated with gatherings for Mother's Day, Father's Day, Memorial Day, or the 4th of July.  If anything we're seeing hospitalizations level off right now in the timeframe when we'd expect to see spikes from 4th of July activity.  So either A) people didn't gather much for the 4th or B) they did so but remained outdoors (like we did).  That's only my speculation of course.

But rather than those holiday events, or the protests and riots, our recent increases I think can be tied pretty closely to the loosening of indoor restrictions (allowing bars to open and allowing an increase to inside dining capacity in late May), as well as a general, increasing laxness to masking and protocol since I guess some people thought we'd "beaten" it or something.
Sadly, that's what I think as well. It's as much quarantine fatigue as anything else. People are just used to COVID being a thing now, and are going on about their daily lives, especially amongst the young and invincible cohort. 

We want to blame protests, or holiday parties, or whatever, because as long as we can point to the lax behaviors of OTHERS, we don't have to look in the mirror and see our own. 

Quote from: utee94 on July 17, 2020, 11:13:39 AM
Still haven't seen any rigorous scientific evidence that child-to-adult spread is a major risk (at least not at the middle school and younger levels). We know that adult-to-adult spread certainly is a risk, so adults should stay masked and stay away from one another within the school building.  I don't think these problems are impossible to overcome.
I don't know how easy this is to do in elementary school, where teachers might need to physically approach a student to assist with instruction, but at the middle school and HS level it shouldn't be that hard for the teacher to maintain a safe distance from the students.

I don't recall any of my classes growing up where student desks were within ~10-15 ft of the blackboard at the front of the room. Usually the teacher's desk was well spaced from student desks as well.

I think the best answer is twofold:


This has the advantage that by many parents choosing to keep their kids home, it makes distancing EASIER for those who choose in-person instruction. 

Do we really need a one-size-fits-all solution? I don't think so, because forcing ALL kids into in-person instruction IMHO is risky, and forcing ALL kids into distance learning will mean that many basically have a wasted year.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on July 17, 2020, 12:23:35 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 16, 2020, 07:19:03 PM
This couldn't be less relevant.  The message is the thing.
Yes the message is much more important than the reality, the science, etc. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2020, 12:35:06 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 17, 2020, 11:57:42 AM
Hey, I get it. 

The alternative solution I'm offering, is canceling the 2020/2021 schoolyear.  We've canceled bars, we've canceled restaurants, we've canceled cleaning companies and engineering firms and retailers, we've canceled cruise ships and amusement parks and water parks and thousands of other types of businesses.

If we believe there is risk-- if the science points us there-- then why wouldn't we cancel the schoolyear and try again next year?
I agree. And since everyone else who is canceled is going without pay...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 17, 2020, 12:35:33 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2020, 11:54:47 AM
I'm not going to say a teacher's life is worth more than any other profession's, but I will point out the reasonable expectation of choosing certain careers is different.  A person going into medicine/nursing/EMT work knows they're going to be exposed to this sort of thing, or at least the reasonable possibility of it.  Police officers know, going in, that their job will be more dangerous than average, dealing with criminals and guns and such.

Teachers never signed up for all the school shootings that happened, despite probably nearly 100% of them willing to take a bullet for their students.  We didn't choose this profession thinking we'd be thrown into buildings full of contagious people (exaggeration, I know) against our will.  But that's not even it - much like the sacrificial attitude in an active shooter situation, teachers are, by and large, an extremely empathetic population.  It's not even about us, it's about the small % of young deaths that will become inevitable.  It's about kids bringing the virus home and their parents or grandparents dying. 

We simply don't want to be a part of that.  And we've got normal-citizen-filled school boards making these decisions, influenced by (in some places) no-mask-for-me communities.  Hell, an Orange Co., CA school board voted to start back school with no masks or preventative measures.  It's insanity.  They're guaranteeing SOME child deaths, teacher deaths, and family deaths.  Dead people who wouldn't be dead, otherwise.
What about parents who legitimately can't stay home with their kids? Parents who both work--and need to work to make ends meet--who are in jobs that aren't closed right now? Parents who rely on school ~9 months of the year not only to educate their kids but also so those kids have a place to be during the day?

So those kids are going to day care, and still have the same chance of getting infected/dying and you substitute dead day care workers for dead teachers? 

BTW in Orange County the school board decisions are not binding on the school districts for their practices--the districts themselves set the practice. My kids (two districts, one charter and one public school) were both talking about offering distance learning alongside traditional instruction, and in-person learning would have various requirements for distancing. Supposedly Newsom has a press conference in a couple hours regarding statewide school guidelines/mandates, so that might trump everything, but either way the OC Board of Schools was effectively just pissing into the wind.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 17, 2020, 12:46:46 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on July 17, 2020, 12:23:35 PM
Yes the message is much more important than the reality, the science, etc.
The science supports mask wearing. As stated, on the individual level the degree to which it protects you is unknown, but as it relates to societal spread a small improvement in individual risk can create big differences to spread of the virus. 

That said, the issue at argument wasn't about the science, it was about enforceability of mask mandates. Can they and will they be enforced?

I agree with OAM on that one that whether they're being actively enforced is mostly immaterial. A mandate gives the message that something isn't optional, and thus it "flips the script" for societal pressure. If you call mask-wearing a choice, then I (as a mask wearer) can't exert social pressure on you for not wearing one. If you call it a mandate for public health, then it's a lot easier for mask wearing to become the default behavior and those who refuse get branded by society as malcontents, or people unwilling to do something to keep the rest of us safe, etc.

Here in CA Newsom created a statewide mask mandate a few weeks back when the cases started spiking. There were no penalties associated with it. Some localities (like Orange County) said their sheriffs were too busy to waste their time enforcing it. And nearly immediately, despite this, mask compliance went visibly up everywhere I looked in OC. 

Whether anyone actually gets fined for not wearing a mask is less important than the messaging that it's required and not optional. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 17, 2020, 12:51:00 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on July 17, 2020, 12:46:46 PM
The science supports mask wearing. As stated, on the individual level the degree to which it protects you is unknown, but as it relates to societal spread a small improvement in individual risk can create big differences to spread of the virus.

That said, the issue at argument wasn't about the science, it was about enforceability of mask mandates. Can they and will they be enforced?

I agree with OAM on that one that whether they're being actively enforced is mostly immaterial. A mandate gives the message that something isn't optional, and thus it "flips the script" for societal pressure. If you call mask-wearing a choice, then I (as a mask wearer) can't exert social pressure on you for not wearing one. If you call it a mandate for public health, then it's a lot easier for mask wearing to become the default behavior and those who refuse get branded by society as malcontents, or people unwilling to do something to keep the rest of us safe, etc.

Here in CA Newsom created a statewide mask mandate a few weeks back when the cases started spiking. There were no penalties associated with it. Some localities (like Orange County) said their sheriffs were too busy to waste their time enforcing it. And nearly immediately, despite this, mask compliance went visibly up everywhere I looked in OC.

Whether anyone actually gets fined for not wearing a mask is less important than the messaging that it's required and not optional.

Agree 100% on this.  Just the mandate itself, changes the behavior, even without enforcement.  It's not easy to dodge 40 non-mask-wearers in the grocery store.  It's quite easy to dodge one or two.
  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 17, 2020, 12:56:08 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2020, 11:02:07 AM
It's not about being popular or not, your post is irresponsible.  Places with actual, widespread mask use are on the back end of this thing, and the mighty USA is still waist-deep in it because of our large, loud 'n proud population refusing to do the right thing. 

And your post is condescending. You don't like my opinion, then ignore it as I will share it non the less.  But I know that offends your sensibilities as only those views you agree with are permitted. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2020, 12:56:25 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on July 17, 2020, 12:23:35 PM
Yes the message is much more important than the reality, the science, etc.
What?
That's not at all my intention, stop it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2020, 12:57:39 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2020, 12:35:06 PM
I agree. And since everyone else who is canceled is going without pay...
We'll have 3.5 million more people getting unemployment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2020, 01:00:14 PM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 17, 2020, 12:56:08 PM
And your post is condescending. You don't like my opinion, then ignore it as I will share it non the less.  But I know that offends your sensibilities as only those views you agree with are permitted.
No, I'm not going to just allow your spread of misinformation.  Sorry/not sorry.  The earth isn't flat, bud.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 17, 2020, 01:01:21 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2020, 11:05:00 AM
This is where you show you're out of your depth here.  You're posting this for a disease that is 70-80% asymptomatic.  Please stop.
You first.

If someone is asymptomatic, exactly how are they spreading the virus? If are not coughing and sneezing the presence of other people, how are they spreading it? I've been told it's not the actual virus itself, but water droplets that it is attached too. Are these people spitting on you? Are they french kissing you against your will?

If you have a problem with actual discussion, I don't know what to tell you. I've put myself out there telling what I think and my observations. So far, you nor anyone else has convinced me that I am wrong as the data that I've seen/read seems to contradict itself many times. What that happens, I start to look at why these things are being perpetuated. In other words, I know bullshit when I see it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2020, 01:04:18 PM
Every district I know here in AZ is offering 3 options, once the online-only mandate expires:
1 - in-person
2 - online quarter-by-quarter, then in-person when the parents deem it safe
3 - online only for the whole year


Online learning was poor in the spring because it was a sudden, unplanned switch.  It should be better in the fall and going forward.  If you find it's exactly the same as the spring, your school district sucks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 17, 2020, 01:05:40 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 17, 2020, 11:28:26 AM
Got links to those studies?
Who would gain by getting Americans (and the entire rest of the world) to "submit" to wearing masks?
This is from the New England Journal of Medicine. I consider it credible.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2006372

This one is a review of existing studies. 
 (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2006372)https://www.rcreader.com/commentary/masks-dont-work-covid-a-review-of-science-relevant-to-covide-19-social-policy (https://www.rcreader.com/commentary/masks-dont-work-covid-a-review-of-science-relevant-to-covide-19-social-policy)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2020, 01:08:27 PM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 17, 2020, 01:01:21 PM
You first.

If someone is asymptomatic, exactly how are they spreading the virus? If are not coughing and sneezing the presence of other people, how are they spreading it? I've been told it's not the actual virus itself, but water droplets that it is attached too. Are these people spitting on you? Are they french kissing you against your will?

They're doing all the same things that traditionally spread germs.  They're rubbing their eyes, picking their nose, cough from a dry throat, etc and before washing their hands for a particular reason, they're using doorknobs, typing in pin numbers, high-fiving friends and shaking acquaintance's hands.  Do you really not know this???

If you have a problem with actual discussion, I don't know what to tell you. I've put myself out there telling what I think and my observations. So far, you nor anyone else has convinced me that I am wrong as the data that I've seen/read seems to contradict itself many times. What that happens, I start to look at why these things are being perpetuated. In other words, I know bullshit when I see it.

I tend to doubt anything is going to convince you that you're wrong, unless it's an obscure, far-right website the rest of the world deems absurd.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 17, 2020, 01:08:35 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2020, 01:00:14 PM
No, I'm not going to just allow your spread of misinformation.  Sorry/not sorry.  The earth isn't flat, bud.
Who died and made you king of all Covid information? Again, if you don't care for what I post, don't read it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 17, 2020, 01:10:30 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2020, 01:08:27 PM
I tend to doubt anything is going to convince you that you're wrong, unless it's an obscure, far-right website the rest of the world deems absurd.
It sure won't be a closed minded, left wing activist that will change my mind. Again, I have read/listened to arguments from all sides and what I have seen to date tells me that the whole mask thing is mostly bullshit. Again, if you don't agree, so be it. You do you and I'll do me. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2020, 01:10:38 PM
You bypass/skip/ignore the 20 studies that say you're wrong so that you can cite the 2 that agree with you.  Again, stop it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 17, 2020, 01:16:36 PM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 17, 2020, 01:05:40 PM
This is from the New England Journal of Medicine. I consider it credible.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2006372
 (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2006372)
That is an opinion piece, from April 1, with no data.  It also says wearing a mask without also emphasizing other items like hand washing MAY be a disadvantage, maybe.

The only reason to consider it credible is if one believed it already.  There is quite a bit of other work that includes hard data and says masks reduce transfer significantly, and then there is the obvious experience of Asian countries where mask wearing is socially demanded.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 17, 2020, 01:30:27 PM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 17, 2020, 01:01:21 PM
You first.

If someone is asymptomatic, exactly how are they spreading the virus? If are not coughing and sneezing the presence of other people, how are they spreading it? I've been told it's not the actual virus itself, but water droplets that it is attached too. Are these people spitting on you? Are they french kissing you against your will?



This would imply that if I was asymptomatic, I wouldn't cough or sneeze at all, and I do both. 

Shoot, have I had corona for years?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2020, 01:33:57 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2020, 12:57:39 PM
We'll have 3.5 million more people getting unemployment.
Not necessarily. It would be an interesting case.

In my experience as employer, I've fought off a lot of unemployment claims made by people who voluntarily left my company, and I won them all.

If there are teachers (entire unions??) who voluntarily choose to not report to work, how is that different?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 17, 2020, 01:34:32 PM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 17, 2020, 01:05:40 PM

This one is a review of existing studies.
 (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2006372)https://www.rcreader.com/commentary/masks-dont-work-covid-a-review-of-science-relevant-to-covide-19-social-policy (https://www.rcreader.com/commentary/masks-dont-work-covid-a-review-of-science-relevant-to-covide-19-social-policy)

That second one feels all sorts of dodgy. 

We're living in a weird age of dodgy content. I made some comments about hope mongering earlier, and it strikes me as an interesting phenomenon. 

Anyway, it's entirely possible the mask thing isn't helping all that much, but the reasons often brought forth don't seem to have a tone of backing. But I find myself thinking about QB battles and their logic. You can call for the QB to be benched because you think the backup is better. The logical underpinnings of that are probably not very strong at all, but you might also turn out to be correct. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 17, 2020, 01:35:14 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2020, 01:33:57 PM
Not necessarily. It would be an interesting case.

In my experience as employer, I've fought off a lot of unemployment claims made by people who voluntarily left my company, and I won them all.

If there are teachers (entire unions??) who voluntarily choose to not report to work, how is that different?
I'm just curious.

Like they just said "I quit" and then went on unemployment?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 17, 2020, 01:35:18 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2020, 01:10:38 PM
You bypass/skip/ignore the 20 studies that say you're wrong so that you can cite the 2 that agree with you.  Again, stop it.
The review I posted examined a lot of those studies and found them inconclusive. 

Again, You stop first. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2020, 01:37:08 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on July 17, 2020, 01:35:14 PM
I'm not curious.

Like they just said "I quit" and then went on unemployment?
You're not, or you are?

Yes, I've had people quit and try to collect. They lost.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 17, 2020, 01:51:29 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2020, 01:37:08 PM
You're not, or you are?

Yes, I've had people quit and try to collect. They lost.
Even if 3.5 million more went on unemployment, that's not even 10% of the 40+ million that lost their jobs March-May.

This thing sucks all around.  People are going to continue to be unemployed as long as various businesses are deemed unsafe, either by the government or by the free market.

My wife was laid off for 2 months, and is back at reduced pay right now.  She is a manual physical therapist, hands-on with every patient.  8 patients per day, 5 days per week, easily within a foot of other people's noses and mouths during their time together.  She's not the only one in the clinic, they have 6 therapists on staff, so there are 12 people in the same room at any given time, all day, every day.  Her risks are certainly as great as any teacher's risk, and her only other choice is to not do it, and lose her job.  She's not a "frontline" worker in a hospital ICU or ER, she didn't "choose" to put herself at risk or in the line of fire-- she's a physical therapist at an outpatient orthopedics office in an office building that also houses a dentist, an orthodontist, and not one but TWO title companies for some reason.

Scores of millions of people in this country are in the same situation.  This is not unique.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 17, 2020, 02:00:09 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2020, 01:37:08 PM
You're not, or you are?

Yes, I've had people quit and try to collect. They lost.
Well that's a weird autocorrect typo. 

Anyway, there's a joke to be made about engineers thinking they understand all systems.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 17, 2020, 02:03:14 PM
Yup, most engineers think they know everything.

And, some of us DO! :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2020, 02:12:33 PM
Life would be a lot more simple if I was "just" an engineer. Engineering education gives you nothing about actually running a business. Of course, neither does an MBA.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 17, 2020, 02:16:25 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2020, 02:12:33 PM
Life would be a lot more simple if I was "just" an engineer. Engineering education gives you nothing about actually running a business. Of course, neither does an MBA.
I already knew everything well before I got my engineering degree, OR my MBA.  #blessed


;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 17, 2020, 02:21:37 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2020, 02:12:33 PM
Life would be a lot more simple if I was "just" an engineer. Engineering education gives you nothing about actually running a business. Of course, neither does an MBA.
At times I thought about going back for an MBA. 

But it always just felt very vague. Like I'd come out with some diverse skills I could apply to many random old companies. Like an upgraded english degree or something.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2020, 02:23:28 PM
I started an MBA program, and after about 4 courses I said "WTF am I doing" and pulled out. I wasn't learning anything I couldn't learn by self-teaching. It was silly. Nothing I learned there helped me at all in my 20 years of running a company. Nada.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 17, 2020, 03:30:39 PM
I tend to view an MBA as a thing to put on your resume.  And perhaps parts of it can be useful at times, I don't have one, the kid in Texas just finished one.

BA, JD, MBA .... probably looks good on a resume.

Initials often do.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 17, 2020, 03:45:28 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2020, 01:04:18 PM
Online learning was poor in the spring because it was a sudden, unplanned switch.  It should be better in the fall and going forward.  If you find it's exactly the same as the spring, your school district sucks.
I expect it will be better than it was for two of the kids... The ones without severe autism. Still not as good as in-person, but better than the spring.

For the third, who does have severe autism, he's basically forfeiting an entire year of development with distance learning. The little bit he had in the spring wouldn't have happened if I hadn't been sitting right next to him in front of the computer. Even then there was no engagement. 

If I could somehow get the school district to at LEAST allow special ed students who need the additional support to be in-person, it would make a huge difference. 

 
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 17, 2020, 01:10:30 PM
It sure won't be a closed minded, left wing activist that will change my mind. Again, I have read/listened to arguments from all sides and what I have seen to date tells me that the whole mask thing is mostly bullshit. Again, if you don't agree, so be it. You do you and I'll do me.
What about me? Or utee? Or Cincy? Or Badge, who supports masks.

What will make you change your mind? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2020, 03:48:17 PM
Yeah, it's probably obvious I'm a bit (not much) right of center... please wear a mask. Please.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 17, 2020, 03:51:42 PM
I have no desire to obtain an MBA. My career arc for much of the first decade was at small companies where I (as a field applications engineer) basically was the "glue guy" of the team... As a result, I got to see how things REALLY worked across multiple domains of the business. 

My company later put me up for a management program offered by UCI, kind of a micro-MBA for engineers. I went into it and came out of it thinking I already knew basically all the stuff they covered, with the exception of some of the more arcane financial stuff. But I realized I was already multi-disciplinary. 

MBA would certainly look nice on my resume, but at this point I'm specialized enough in my career that I doubt it would do much unless I want to pivot out of the role I was born for, which somehow I was lucky enough to find. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2020, 03:57:04 PM
I'll take the P.E., P.L.S., and C.F.M., thank you.

I've never hired anyone with an MBA. I guess I wouldn't want some snot telling me how to run my thing. Heh.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 17, 2020, 04:03:05 PM
Heheh, maybe the first time in my life I've ever been categorized as a Left Wing Activist.  I kind of like it!

Wear a mask.  It's not that hard and it's not a hoax.  

I have certainly called for some more rigorous studies on exactly what mask materials/densities/layers etc. work best.  It's difficult for me to fathom that we're 4-6 months into this thing depending on where you live and what date you start counting, and we still don't have some basic published studies on the effectiveness of N95 vs surgical vs 2-sided fabric vs bandanna vs scarf.  Because as I've said many times, if wearing a bandanna or a scarf really doesn't do anything, then we shouldn't be asking citizens to do so, and instead we should be telling them what DOES work and how to get ahold of it, and even providing it to citizens for cheap or free where possible.

As I stated back in March, the problem is that, starting from the first words we heard about this, we were on a timer.  We're using up our goodwill, we're using up our "COVID capital," with the public.  So telling them to do things that aren't actually beneficial, is not only a waste of everyone's time,  but it will also backfire and result in WORSE behavior.  Antagonistic behavior.  Rebellious behavior.

I was saying this back in March, and well, here we are.

Even so, wear a mask.  2-layer cotton, surgical, whatever you can get ahold of. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 17, 2020, 04:33:24 PM
I"m telling all my friends on FB I've been called a left win activist (sort of).  

One poster on Area 51 called me "just to the right of AOC", but that doesn't count.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 17, 2020, 04:35:16 PM
I wasn't calling you guys left-wing activists... I was pointing you out as pro-mask while not being left-wing activists.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2020, 04:36:28 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 17, 2020, 04:35:16 PM
I wasn't calling you guys left-wing activists... I was pointing you out as pro-mask while not being left-wing activists.
We know this. Let us have a little fun.

But, we digress, as we should not be talking anything politics on this thread. UTee has a big hat, and he's got cattle.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 17, 2020, 04:43:26 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2020, 11:26:37 AM
Let's bet a dollar on who they're voting for in November.
You would lose.   Big. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 17, 2020, 04:46:01 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2020, 04:36:28 PM
We know this. Let us have a little fun.
I find whether I'm being called a left-wing activist or a right-wing reactionary depends who I'm talking to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 17, 2020, 04:47:58 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2020, 04:36:28 PM
But, we digress, as we should not be talking anything politics on this thread. UTee has a big hat, and he's got cattle.
It wasn't about politics... It was about how to convince someone who said they wouldn't accept info from a left-wing liberal that masks were useful.

I was only trying to point out that even people other than OAM were in favor of masks, and probably because we study the evidence.

And utee is already questionable. Is Austin really even Texas?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2020, 04:51:13 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 17, 2020, 04:47:58 PM
It wasn't about politics... It was about how to convince someone who said they wouldn't accept info from a left-wing liberal that masks were useful.

I was only trying to point out that even people other than OAM were in favor of masks, and probably because we study the evidence.

And utee is already questionable. Is Austin really even Texas?
That's like asking if Madison is even Wisconsin. Heh.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 17, 2020, 04:52:06 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2020, 04:51:13 PM
That's like asking if Madison is even Wisconsin. Heh.
Or if Chicago is even Illinois? I'd venture >90% of the land mass of Illinois doesn't think so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 17, 2020, 05:00:59 PM
Is Atlanta in Georgia?  Yeah, pretty much.  Less than one tenth of the metro area population is in the city limits, which is a bit unusual.  And 60% of the state's population is in the metro area, which is interesting (to me).

There is some expanded version of a metro area that includes Athens.  SMSA or somesuch.

It was almost like summer here today, I saw folks out running and biking in the park around 1 PM, full sun, the car said 94°F.

I was telling the wife about kudzu, there is a patch growing beside part of the beltline trail.  I said if they don't roundup this soon there won't be a trail.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2020, 05:18:34 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2020, 01:33:57 PM
Not necessarily. It would be an interesting case.

In my experience as employer, I've fought off a lot of unemployment claims made by people who voluntarily left my company, and I won them all.

If there are teachers (entire unions??) who voluntarily choose to not report to work, how is that different?
I was responding to the idea that the school year was cancelled.  :96:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 17, 2020, 05:29:40 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 17, 2020, 04:52:06 PM
Or if Chicago is even Illinois? I'd venture >90% of the land mass of Illinois doesn't think so.
It leads to a kinda silly thought exercises. States are deeply arbitrary. Places are many. Even someone in the, I dunno, Cleveland area might not feel allegiance to Cleveland. 

We're both in some ways California, but where you are (OC, I thought?), isn't SD, or LA, or any part of the Bay Area, which in turn ain't Humbolt, Stockton or Truckee. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2020, 05:34:16 PM
And I'm not even a left-wing liberal, for the millionth time.  
I find that my biggest crimes are citing evidence and knowing the difference between equity and equality.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 17, 2020, 05:39:13 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2020, 05:34:16 PM
And I'm not even a left-wing liberal, for the millionth time. 
I find that my biggest crimes are citing evidence and knowing the difference between equity and equality. 
And/ sharing positions on most issues with left wing liberals.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2020, 11:54:17 PM
I'm left of you, which is obvious, and only on issues we've discussed here.  There's an entire ocean of issues you don't know my views on (and have no interest in, I'm guessing).  Considering me a blind radical is easier, I get it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 18, 2020, 01:12:05 AM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 17, 2020, 01:01:21 PM
You first.

If someone is asymptomatic, exactly how are they spreading the virus? If are not coughing and sneezing the presence of other people, how are they spreading it? I've been told it's not the actual virus itself, but water droplets that it is attached too. Are these people spitting on you? Are they french kissing you against your will?

If you have a problem with actual discussion, I don't know what to tell you. I've put myself out there telling what I think and my observations. So far, you nor anyone else has convinced me that I am wrong as the data that I've seen/read seems to contradict itself many times. What that happens, I start to look at why these things are being perpetuated. In other words, I know bullshit when I see it.
You don't have to talk or sneeze to spread it, NOB.  You can spread it by talking, or even by exhaling.  It can be aerosol-borne.  That's why indoor environments spread it so well.  The A/C blows it around.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 18, 2020, 01:22:52 AM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 17, 2020, 01:05:40 PM
This is from the New England Journal of Medicine. I consider it credible.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2006372

This one is a review of existing studies.
 (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2006372)https://www.rcreader.com/commentary/masks-dont-work-covid-a-review-of-science-relevant-to-covide-19-social-policy (https://www.rcreader.com/commentary/masks-dont-work-covid-a-review-of-science-relevant-to-covide-19-social-policy)
This seems to be the bottom line of the article in the NEJM:

Quote
What is clear, however, is that universal masking alone is not a panacea. A mask will not protect providers caring for a patient with active Covid-19 if it’s not accompanied by meticulous hand hygiene, eye protection, gloves, and a gown. A mask alone will not prevent health care workers with early Covid-19 from contaminating their hands and spreading the virus to patients and colleagues. Focusing on universal masking alone may, paradoxically, lead to more transmission of Covid-19 if it diverts attention from implementing more fundamental infection-control measures.

That is not at all the same thing as saying that wearing a mask when you go out in public is a waste of time.

In the second one, all of those studies are about the flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 18, 2020, 02:57:21 AM
Wait, your sources matter AND what the sources say matters?!?!  Ah, (@*#$#&@*#@!!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 18, 2020, 06:39:21 AM
The hand washing was emphasized early because of some studies that purported to detect live virus on surfaces for a long time.  That was later clarified to mean some RNA fragments persisted, not live virus.  I have not seen a quality study on viral persistence on surfaces in contagious form.  RNA alone isn't going to give you the illness.

I still wash my hands when returning from outside anywhere, it's good practice for general reasons.  I THINK the transmission is mostly aerosolized droplets of moisture that someone encounters.  Obviously, if those droplets fall on a surface indoors, they will be contagious for some period of time, probably hours, I don't think days.

This could be wrong, so don't make book on it.  Just wear a mask.  We could lick this thing if everyone distanced and/or wore a mask.

I don't personally view that as either hard to do or some kind of weird government plot to take our guns and lock up Jews, or whatever the latest Facebook thing is.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 18, 2020, 11:01:08 AM
https://www.wired.com/story/how-masks-went-from-dont-wear-to-must-have/ (https://www.wired.com/story/how-masks-went-from-dont-wear-to-must-have/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 18, 2020, 01:13:01 PM
Well, this is really screwed up.

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/07/17/our-residents-are-afraid-hundreds-gather-at-osceola-parties-to-spread-covid-19-sheriff-says/ (https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/07/17/our-residents-are-afraid-hundreds-gather-at-osceola-parties-to-spread-covid-19-sheriff-says/)

Why??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 18, 2020, 01:32:34 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 18, 2020, 01:13:01 PM
Well, this is really screwed up.

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/07/17/our-residents-are-afraid-hundreds-gather-at-osceola-parties-to-spread-covid-19-sheriff-says/ (https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/07/17/our-residents-are-afraid-hundreds-gather-at-osceola-parties-to-spread-covid-19-sheriff-says/)

Why??
Is it being done by gang members with the aim of achieving herd immunity among  themselves
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 18, 2020, 09:18:26 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 18, 2020, 01:13:01 PM
Well, this is really screwed up.

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/07/17/our-residents-are-afraid-hundreds-gather-at-osceola-parties-to-spread-covid-19-sheriff-says/ (https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/07/17/our-residents-are-afraid-hundreds-gather-at-osceola-parties-to-spread-covid-19-sheriff-says/)

Why??
At best, they just don't care whom they pass it on to.
At worst, they are malevolent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 18, 2020, 09:26:54 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/4LYXvhg.jpg)
Older children being age 10+
That's fifth graders, so all K-5 schools' adults at jeopardy.  Many, if not most elementary schools here in Phoenix are K-8.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 19, 2020, 07:05:15 AM
I never heard the story that "children don't spread it".  Huh.

Why would anyone suspect that to be true?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 19, 2020, 08:37:34 AM
there's every story imaginable out there if you look hard enough

how many stories are even a bit true?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 19, 2020, 09:48:34 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 18, 2020, 01:13:01 PM
Well, this is really screwed up.

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/07/17/our-residents-are-afraid-hundreds-gather-at-osceola-parties-to-spread-covid-19-sheriff-says/ (https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/07/17/our-residents-are-afraid-hundreds-gather-at-osceola-parties-to-spread-covid-19-sheriff-says/)

Why??
I'd assume the people are out there because they're being irresponsible. I assume the sheriff is talking about "Covid parties" because he is, to a degree, being irresponsible. I'd assume people are being drunken morons. The story of people trying to get sick is one that gets a lot of attention when people in positions of authority talk about it, but as a good skeptic, I'm leery of believing it's the thing some people paint it as.

It leads to two interesting outcomes. 1. There's a weird balance of concern where you write of people as "unsavory" and "gang members" but also show a level of concern about their health. 2. If it was true, it would seem the messaging the disease isn't really that bad got through. 

Anyway, it's also fascinating how so many places have so many problems with out of towners. Perhaps that speaks to of out owners generally being bad, or it just speaks to something about tribalism and responsibility. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 19, 2020, 10:08:42 AM
My guess is those parties are just parties, probably without much "gang" activity as we think of gangs.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 19, 2020, 10:17:30 AM
Except for the occasional shooting, I guess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 19, 2020, 10:37:39 AM
Very occasional, according to that report, which COULD be an attempt by the sheriff to say "Don't do to these parties, gangs will shoot you if you do."

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 19, 2020, 01:03:32 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/19/five-charts-illustrating-us-economic-trends-amid-coronavirus.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/19/five-charts-illustrating-us-economic-trends-amid-coronavirus.html)

Some interesting charts I thought.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 19, 2020, 07:41:12 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 18, 2020, 09:26:54 PM
[img width=500 height=386.989]https://i.imgur.com/4LYXvhg.jpg[/img]
Older children being age 10+
That's fifth graders, so all K-5 schools' adults at jeopardy.  Many, if not most elementary schools here in Phoenix are K-8. 
I think that would mean that 5-12 schools' adults would be at risk.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 19, 2020, 07:43:14 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 19, 2020, 07:05:15 AM
I never heard the story that "children don't spread it".  Huh.

Why would anyone suspect that to be true?
I have seen it.  If I had to say where, I would guess that it was something posted on this board, but I might be wrong about that.
I have not understood why that would be true either.
Kids don't exhale viruses the way adults do?  Really?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 20, 2020, 07:10:24 AM
I suspect it was a distortion of the true message that children are far more often asymptomatic that got twisted into they aren't contagious.  I never thought that.

Now, if they are asymptomatic, they would cough and sneeze less often than a person with symptoms, so there is that aspect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on July 20, 2020, 07:48:52 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 19, 2020, 01:03:32 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/19/five-charts-illustrating-us-economic-trends-amid-coronavirus.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/19/five-charts-illustrating-us-economic-trends-amid-coronavirus.html)

Some interesting charts I thought.
The last chart is bonkers and accurate.  The housing market in MSP is stupid tight right now, with almost no supply and a lot of sales being conducted sight unseen. 

One benefit, such as it is, of the travel restrictions is that a lot of rental units that had been owned and operated as AirBNB rentals have gone on the market as standard rental units. Both vacancy and rents have been holding steady. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 20, 2020, 07:55:26 AM
Yeah, the condo market around us if very very limited right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 20, 2020, 10:13:12 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 20, 2020, 07:10:24 AM
I suspect it was a distortion of the true message that children are far more often asymptomatic that got twisted into they aren't contagious.  I never thought that.

Now, if they are asymptomatic, they would cough and sneeze less often than a person with symptoms, so there is that aspect.
This strikes me as kinda interesting. 

Kids are generally germ-y. To be "asymptomatic," do they need to need to not be coughing and sneezing much? If they have some other kid bug, they probably are. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 20, 2020, 10:17:44 AM
I imagine asymptomatic means just that, but I cough and sneeze and whatever normally.

There also is presymptomatic.

Every time I think I have a bit of a sore throat or dry cough I think I have the dreaded lurgy.  Had I gone to medical school I probably would have contracted every disease known to man, including hypochondria.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 20, 2020, 10:19:38 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 18, 2020, 11:01:08 AM
https://www.wired.com/story/how-masks-went-from-dont-wear-to-must-have/ (https://www.wired.com/story/how-masks-went-from-dont-wear-to-must-have/)
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 20, 2020, 07:10:24 AM
I suspect it was a distortion of the true message that children are far more often asymptomatic that got twisted into they aren't contagious.  I never thought that.

Now, if they are asymptomatic, they would cough and sneeze less often than a person with symptoms, so there is that aspect.
But as your story above pointed out, if this is aerosolized more than just merely droplets, it can spread through talking as well... And kids NEVER.STOP.TALKING. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 20, 2020, 10:32:01 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 20, 2020, 10:19:38 AM
But as your story above pointed out, if this is aerosolized more than just merely droplets, it can spread through talking as well... And kids NEVER.STOP.TALKING.
Maybe we can get folks to mask kids by saying it will muffle their made up stories about nothing. 

Shoot, might be good for adults too. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 20, 2020, 10:39:55 AM
I think talking probably doesn't spread it very far, shouting would, like if you were protesting something.

I THINK being outside reduces risk significantly.  We are only dining outside now when we go out.  Folks are here are pretty good at wearing masks, but I suspect it's different in the countryside and suburbs.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on July 20, 2020, 10:42:56 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 19, 2020, 01:03:32 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/19/five-charts-illustrating-us-economic-trends-amid-coronavirus.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/19/five-charts-illustrating-us-economic-trends-amid-coronavirus.html)

Some interesting charts I thought.
don't know what the real estate markets are like elsewhere, because every market is completely different, but in South Florida, market has never been hotter. Stuff is lasting hours or days, not even weeks. Palm Beach Post just put out an article saying there has never been this many homes showing up under-contract in the MLS ever.

Buddy of mine sold a $2.5 million home in Boca in literally 4 days. And he sold another one in Delray in just 10 days for $1.4 million via facetime to buyers from Canada who never even physically saw the house.

There's like a mass exodus of people leaving the Northeast, Canada, Midwest for south Florida right now because of this. And lot of people leaving high-rise condos for single-family homes because of this 'rona as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 20, 2020, 10:50:31 AM
I can see a problem with a high rise condo or apt building.  We have two elevators here, but only 16 floors, 3 of which are parking.  We're supposed to be only two on an elevator, or one family group.  That means you can wait a bit, if you abide by the rules.  Most folks ask, and if you're masked they let you on.

I we lived in a 40 story building like the ones next to us, that becomes a problem even with more elevators.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on July 20, 2020, 10:55:00 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 18, 2020, 09:26:54 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/4LYXvhg.jpg)
Older children being age 10+
That's fifth graders, so all K-5 schools' adults at jeopardy.  Many, if not most elementary schools here in Phoenix are K-8. 
Here's an idea....let's re-open and then lock-down all of the following and give them gov't assistance and unlimited delivery supplies from amazon/uber eats so they don't have to leave their homes/dwellings.

Let's lock-down everyone 65 or older. Make them sign waivers if they wish to leave and risk getting Corona.

Then let's lock-down the very sick and immune-compromised. Make them sign waivers if they wish to leave their lock-down and risk getting Corona.

Then let's lock-down all the super-fat, disgusting obese people with diabetes or heart-conditions which they wrought upon themselves by being disgusting fat slobs. Make them sign waivers if they wish to leave their lock-down and risk getting Corona.


Problem solved. Children aren't dying from this. The young and the moderately healthy aren't dying from this. It's pretty much only the above mentioned. BOOM.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 20, 2020, 11:01:48 AM
I don't have any special memory of the 2009-2010 H1N1 flu thing, does anyone here?

https://www.wfla.com/news/by-the-numbers/coronavirus-vs-flu-how-deaths-number-of-cases-compare/ (https://www.wfla.com/news/by-the-numbers/coronavirus-vs-flu-how-deaths-number-of-cases-compare/)

During the 2019-2020 flu season in the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that between 39 million and 56 million people contracted the flu.

Total coronavirus (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html) patients in the United States currently total more than 2.5 million, the most reported cases in the world. Brazil had second-most with 1.3 million reported cases.

According to the CDC, the hospitalization rate in the U.S. for flu this season is about 69 hospitalizations per 100,000 people. The overall coronavirus hospitalization rate is 98.4 per 100,000 people (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html).

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 20, 2020, 11:14:03 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on July 20, 2020, 10:55:00 AM
Here's an idea....let's re-open and then lock-down all of the following and give them gov't assistance and unlimited delivery supplies from amazon/uber eats so they don't have to leave their homes/dwellings.

Let's lock-down everyone 65 or older. Make them sign waivers if they wish to leave and risk getting Corona.

Then let's lock-down the very sick and immune-compromised. Make them sign waivers if they wish to leave their lock-down and risk getting Corona.

Then let's lock-down all the super-fat, disgusting obese people with diabetes or heart-conditions which they wrought upon themselves by being disgusting fat slobs. Make them sign waivers if they wish to leave their lock-down and risk getting Corona.


Problem solved. Children aren't dying from this. The young and the moderately healthy aren't dying from this. It's pretty much only the above mentioned. BOOM.
Yeah, let's lock down the olds and the uglies in the name of muh freedumb!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 20, 2020, 11:34:23 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on July 20, 2020, 10:55:00 AM
Here's an idea....let's re-open and then lock-down all of the following and give them gov't assistance and unlimited delivery supplies from amazon/uber eats so they don't have to leave their homes/dwellings.

Let's lock-down everyone 65 or older. Make them sign waivers if they wish to leave and risk getting Corona.

Then let's lock-down the very sick and immune-compromised. Make them sign waivers if they wish to leave their lock-down and risk getting Corona.

Then let's lock-down all the super-fat, disgusting obese people with diabetes or heart-conditions which they wrought upon themselves by being disgusting fat slobs. Make them sign waivers if they wish to leave their lock-down and risk getting Corona.


Problem solved. Children aren't dying from this. The young and the moderately healthy aren't dying from this. It's pretty much only the above mentioned. BOOM.
other then the fact it would be unconstitutional not a bad idea
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 20, 2020, 11:46:43 AM
At some point, we have to rely on the good sense of people to behave sensibly, which of course isn't going to work in all cases.  But, the crazy folks make the news, not the folks exercising good sense.

I don't think we can realistically shut down again for long enough to really break this thing.  As a state reopens, it starts again.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2020, 11:56:59 AM
I've got an employee down right now, because he decided to have a party on July 4. Busiest time of year for us, and we're down a field tech. Dumbass.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 20, 2020, 12:07:37 PM
sick leave?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on July 20, 2020, 12:09:56 PM
We've had managers bring in their teams for in person training and dismiss every rule put in place around social distancing, wearing masks, etc...  In several cases they did not have approvals to come into the office at all.   The term 'career limiting move' comes to mind...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2020, 12:13:37 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 20, 2020, 12:07:37 PM
sick leave?
Nope. Full pay.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 20, 2020, 12:14:26 PM
Quote from: Entropy on July 20, 2020, 12:09:56 PM
We've had managers bring in their teams for in person training and dismiss every rule put in place around social distancing, wearing masks, etc...  In several cases they did not have approvals to come into the office at all.  The term 'career limiting move' comes to mind...
We sometimes refer to those type of things as "resume-generating events."

Hope it doesn't require someone dying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 20, 2020, 12:24:26 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2020, 12:13:37 PM
Nope. Full pay.
you need to talk the the HR manager  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2020, 12:30:08 PM
She's on it.

Anyway, the doubling rate for Florida has gone from 15.2 days to 18.6 in the past week, and the positivity rate has dropped for the past 2 weeks. New cases are flattening. Hospitalizations are coming down too. 

This is good news (except for the ones who have died for discharge). 

My zip code has 44 cases. My neighborhood has none.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 20, 2020, 12:33:03 PM
Reported new cases in GA MAY be leveling off after a marked rise.  Hospitalizations continues to go higher, we're running out, and if this sustains AND flu season hits ....

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2020, 12:59:13 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 20, 2020, 12:33:03 PM
Reported new cases in GA MAY be leveling off after a marked rise.  Hospitalizations continues to go higher, we're running out, and if this sustains AND flu season hits ....


I think the treatments have vastly improved since this thing got here to the US. I'm certain that will continue.

The dock doc told us that the length of stays and seriousness of in his hospital are coming down rapidly. I know that's only one place, but it's encouraging as it would be the hospital that we would need to use should anything happen to one of us between 8/1 and 9/30.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 20, 2020, 01:17:23 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2020, 12:59:13 PM
I think the treatments have vastly improved since this thing got here to the US. I'm certain that will continue.

The dock doc told us that the length of stays and seriousness of in his hospital are coming down rapidly. I know that's only one place, but it's encouraging as it would be the hospital that we would need to use should anything happen to one of us between 8/1 and 9/30.
Nurse: "DOC, it's a bad one. He has boater's elbow AND boater's palm, with some sun poisoning as well."

Doc: "When will these newbies learn? You can't take that much Florida all at once. It shocks the system."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 20, 2020, 01:18:18 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2020, 11:56:59 AM
I've got an employee down right now, because he decided to have a party on July 4. Busiest time of year for us, and we're down a field tech. Dumbass.
Random learning about the world question: Why is this time of year the busiest? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2020, 01:25:25 PM
Construction layout.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2020, 01:36:25 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on July 20, 2020, 01:17:23 PM
Nurse: "DOC, it's a bad one. He has boater's elbow AND boater's palm, with some sun poisoning as well."

Doc: "When will these newbies learn? You can't take that much Florida all at once. It shocks the system."
Heh. I'll be in Kenosha for August and September.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 20, 2020, 02:29:48 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2020, 01:25:25 PM
Construction layout.
Like the weather is better for it? Of there's something about the construction cycle that makes this the time?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2020, 02:35:16 PM
Most construction is seasonal here. Very little gets built (outside) during the colder months. So, it's gangbusters from mid April to mid November.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 20, 2020, 02:37:07 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2020, 02:35:16 PM
Most construction is seasonal here. Very little gets built (outside) during the colder months. So, it's gangbusters from mid April to mid November.
Ahhh. I kinda figured, but wanted to make sure. Good to know. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 20, 2020, 02:49:00 PM
The wife tells me that the French all went to the beaches which now are coded red for high infection rates.

 France reported 289 deaths yesterday and 865 new cases, not a good ratio.

The US reported 65,000 new cases and 412 deaths.  I realize the deaths are from cases reported 4-6 weeks ago or so.

65,000,000 vs 327,000,000 people 5:1.

For some reason, people in Europe are dying at a higher rate than people in the US.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2020, 02:54:07 PM
Contrary to popular opinion, we have excellent healthcare here.

And not as many people smoke.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 20, 2020, 03:09:52 PM
Spain is starting back uphill also.  My impression is a country can slow this down by an economic shut down, fine, but when you reopen, it just comes back (unless you're an island and don't let anyone in).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 20, 2020, 03:14:01 PM
Yeah, I asked a week or two ago what was going to happen to Europe now that everyone wants to take their yearly vacation...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 20, 2020, 04:36:54 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2020, 02:35:16 PM
Most construction is seasonal here. Very little gets built (outside) during the colder months. So, it's gangbusters from mid April to mid November.
yes, so government projects finally get in the layout stage now, then get construction started in another month or so, then they are screwed when December hits.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2020, 04:56:04 PM
We don't do staking for government work, generally. They require union shops, and I'll be one of those over my dead body.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 20, 2020, 05:13:28 PM
less headaches
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on July 20, 2020, 06:03:48 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 20, 2020, 04:36:54 PM
yes, so government projects finally get in the layout stage now, then get construction started in another month or so, then they are screwed when December hits.
Not always. Projects that are being staked out now are either multi-year projects or jobs that will take the whole season to build. Projects go out for bid in July and August,  build bypasses and crossovers in September and October, then either do pier work over winter or be ready to start digging or paving as soon as the frost is out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 20, 2020, 06:26:19 PM
Minnesota must have more common sense than the Iowa DOT
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 20, 2020, 06:36:35 PM
Highway work here goes on year round obviously.  Some of the concrete freeway pavement in use is 50 years old or more.

There's a neat rebuild of a freeway interchange north of town.  The wife was in the hospital and had a window overlooking the work (one day, hip surgery, she's fine).  It's pretty neat to see, I imagine the design hours that goes into something like this is impressive, traffic control, soil sampling, drainage, ... $800 million.

https://www.reporternewspapers.net/2020/07/01/transform-285-400-interchange-project-completion-is-delayed-a-year-to-2021/ (https://www.reporternewspapers.net/2020/07/01/transform-285-400-interchange-project-completion-is-delayed-a-year-to-2021/)

Then GA DOT wants to build parallel toll freeway lanes, which sounds to me like, well, I dunno.  Traffic here remains well off normal with the virus thing, it's kind of nice to be able to get around rather easily.  I was chatting with the wife about how much of this is permanent.

https://www.reporternewspapers.net/2020/05/29/gdot-responds-to-i-285-toll-lane-questions-concerns/ (https://www.reporternewspapers.net/2020/05/29/gdot-responds-to-i-285-toll-lane-questions-concerns/)

And our highway money can't be used for mass transit by law.

This is my favorite interchange, slowest stretch of highway in the country apparently...

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/atlantas-spaghetti-junction-ranked-as-no1-truck-bottleneck-in-us/689609804/ (https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/atlantas-spaghetti-junction-ranked-as-no1-truck-bottleneck-in-us/689609804/)


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 20, 2020, 07:27:31 PM
while new cases continue to be high in Texas the curve for hospitalizations remains flat with even a hint of

it trending down

we can always hope


one of the counties with a big problem is Hidalgo which is down in the valley near the Mexican boarder

One of the biggest problems with this county is the refusal of positive folks  to quarantine

They have made quarantine required under the threat of arrest in that county

sometimes people are just plain crazy
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 20, 2020, 07:31:20 PM
SIOUX CITY -- Sixteen more people have tested positive for the novel coronavirus in Woodbury County, the Siouxland District Health Department reported Sunday.

Those 16 positives come from 126 new tests performed, for a positivity rate of about 12.7 percent. This is lower than Woodbury County's peak positivity percentage in April, which hit roughly 52 percent at one point, but higher than Iowa's statewide positivity rate of 6.4 percent tallied on Saturday.


In Northwest Iowa, 11 COVID-19 patients are currently in the ICU and two are on ventilators, according to data from Region 3 of Iowa's Regional Medical Coordination Centers (RMCC), which represents counties in Northwest Iowa. In all, 31 patients in the region are currently hospitalized with the virus.

Since the beginning of the outbreak, 38,723 Iowans (or roughly 1 in every 82 residents) has tested positive for the virus. Of these, 27,896, or about 72 percent, are now considered recovered, while 793 have died. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on July 20, 2020, 10:18:08 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2020, 02:35:16 PM
Most construction is seasonal here. Very little gets built (outside) during the colder months. So, it's gangbusters from mid April to mid November.
That’s why Florida is awesome lol. It’s hot year round, construction goes 24/7, 365 basically. 

Plus the money that is in Palm Beach, Broward, & Miami-Dade counties is just absolutely insane. There is money there like nowhere else. And it’s from all over the world. South Florida real estate market has more foreign investment than any market in the US. The amount of filthy rich Russians, Chinese, Brazilians, Venezuelans, French, Italian, Middle Eastern, Israeli that own vacation mansion or multi-million dollar high-rise condos doesn’t make any sense. And then you have all the old money on the island in Palm Beach, where a piece of shit home will cost you $5,000,000, and homes routinely sell for $40-50 million, and the newer ones on the ocean can go for upwards of $100 million. Insane.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on July 20, 2020, 10:19:55 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2020, 04:56:04 PM
We don't do staking for government work, generally. They require union shops, and I'll be one of those over my dead body.
Another reason why Florida is great- right to work state lol. 

Govt work also sucks ass because of the hoops you have to jump through and the bonding can be a pain in the ass. Never been interested in it, never will be. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on July 21, 2020, 02:38:45 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 20, 2020, 07:27:31 PM
while new cases continue to be high in Texas the curve for hospitalizations remains flat with even a hint of

it trending down
What do the epidemiologists, or you, attribute this change in curvature to?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 21, 2020, 08:29:39 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on July 21, 2020, 02:38:45 AM
What do the epidemiologists, or you, attribute this change in curvature to?
a lot of the hospitalization patients were not virus related but rather a catch up fro other medical issues which were put on hold back in March and April

They have run their course 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 21, 2020, 08:40:59 AM
In support of that, my wife is about to have shoulder surgery, which she would not have done in April.  It should be outpatient in her case.  I'm looking into it for me as well.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 21, 2020, 10:47:16 AM
I just had a buddy released from the hospital. Needed back surgery - diagnosed in February. Postponed for Covid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 21, 2020, 12:09:20 PM
I hope this guy is a real "expert"................... of course this story is a month old

- Matteo Bassetti said patients who could have previously succumbed to COVID-19 were recovering without breathing difficulties

- Bassetti said the virus was like a tiger in March and April but had downgraded to a wild cat in the recent weeks

- The professor said the virus was weakening by itself and a vaccine was no longer necessary to quell it

- He further said though it was not scientifically proven, there was a huge likelihood that COVID-19 was losing its virulence and was mutating

The novel coronavirus is no longer lethal as it used to be and could die on its own without a vaccine, an Italian expert has said.

Head of the infectious diseases clinic at the Policlinico San Martino hospital in Italy, Matteo Bassetti hinted at a possible end in sight of the virus after stating that COVID-19 was losing its virulence since most patients who would have died from the disease in March or April were now recovering.


http://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/coronavirus-is-weakening-could-die-on-its-own-without-vaccine-italian-expert/ar-BB15N3hh?ocid=sf&fbclid=IwAR3D4891IbcSZA5jNZ3Q89__HoCJNWwglccPwLKybiY31MO5YXX6C9uue6c (http://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/coronavirus-is-weakening-could-die-on-its-own-without-vaccine-italian-expert/ar-BB15N3hh?ocid=sf&fbclid=IwAR3D4891IbcSZA5jNZ3Q89__HoCJNWwglccPwLKybiY31MO5YXX6C9uue6c)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on July 21, 2020, 12:23:12 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 21, 2020, 12:09:20 PM
I hope this guy is a real "expert"................... of course this story is a month old

- Matteo Bassetti said patients who could have previously succumbed to COVID-19 were recovering without breathing difficulties

- Bassetti said the virus was like a tiger in March and April but had downgraded to a wild cat in the recent weeks

- The professor said the virus was weakening by itself and a vaccine was no longer necessary to quell it

- He further said though it was not scientifically proven, there was a huge likelihood that COVID-19 was losing its virulence and was mutating

The novel coronavirus is no longer lethal as it used to be and could die on its own without a vaccine, an Italian expert has said.

Head of the infectious diseases clinic at the Policlinico San Martino hospital in Italy, Matteo Bassetti hinted at a possible end in sight of the virus after stating that COVID-19 was losing its virulence since most patients who would have died from the disease in March or April were now recovering.


http://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/coronavirus-is-weakening-could-die-on-its-own-without-vaccine-italian-expert/ar-BB15N3hh?ocid=sf&fbclid=IwAR3D4891IbcSZA5jNZ3Q89__HoCJNWwglccPwLKybiY31MO5YXX6C9uue6c (http://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/coronavirus-is-weakening-could-die-on-its-own-without-vaccine-italian-expert/ar-BB15N3hh?ocid=sf&fbclid=IwAR3D4891IbcSZA5jNZ3Q89__HoCJNWwglccPwLKybiY31MO5YXX6C9uue6c)
please be true.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 21, 2020, 01:29:16 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on July 21, 2020, 12:23:12 PM
please be true.
Don’t worry.  The mega hype and angst over Covid will subside, substantially- on November 4th.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 21, 2020, 01:38:20 PM
I hear a lot of "experts" saying a lot of very different things, most of it based on hope more than facts and data.

I know there was a bad flu pandemic in 2012 or so, and frankly I don't recall a thing about it.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 21, 2020, 01:38:30 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 21, 2020, 01:29:16 PM
Don’t worry.  The mega hype and angst over Covid will subside, substantially- on November 4th. 
its very very sad but you are correct
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on July 21, 2020, 02:54:57 PM
Here's a story for the group.  I'm going to attempt to relay the story as best I can.  

Good friend of mine, Nate, went through a COVID exposure a few weeks ago.  Nate and his wife Nikki have three small children, all under the age of 5.  Nate was my co-worker before I changed jobs and we keep in regular contact.  

Nate was riding to work (they live about 40 minutes away) with another co-worker Teddy.  One day, after Nate and Eddie had been carpooling for several days, Teddy went home sick.  Nate had to get a ride with another co-worker.  Teddy tested positive for COVID and actually had to be put in the hospital (Teddy is in his 60's).  

A few days later, in late June, Nate's children started getting sick and all were tested for COVID.  They tested all three of them but not Nate or Nikki.  Several days went by, and Nate and Nikki got sick as well.  By now this was early July.  

Both were tested for COVID, but they still had not received the tests for the kids taken several days earlier.  All got better with no further compliations.  About 10 days after they tested their kids for COVID Nikki got a text that said she tested negative for COVID.  Two days later she got a text message that she tested positive for COVID.  She called the testing place, confused about why she tested negative and then positive.  Their response was that she tested negative in late June and then positive in early July.  She stated that she did not test in late June, only her kids did. I do not think that any of the other kids tested positive but I'm not sure.  

Anyways, Nate's test came back negative.  So 5 people in one house, all got sick within a week of each other with the same symptoms, 4 tested negative, and one tested positive.  Same symptoms, all were exposed to COVID.  One person tested negative that didn't even take the test!  

Like my friend told me, if he thought this was all a joke before, he really knows it was a joke now.  

Teddy had to be hospitalized twice, but I think he's now at home recovering.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 21, 2020, 03:00:35 PM
Thanks for sharing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 21, 2020, 03:15:02 PM
I'm not moving to Texas
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 21, 2020, 03:31:31 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 21, 2020, 03:15:02 PM
I'm not moving to Texas
good cause we will give you the virus faster then shit
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 21, 2020, 03:38:02 PM
I had the signs of a cold so I thought Id take my temp

it came back as 97.1

I took it several times with the same result

now I have not taken my temp for at least a decade but I remember it should be 98.6

so I googled this and it said its quite common for a person as old as I am to have a temp 1 degree below normal

learn something new every day

oh and I dont have a cold
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 21, 2020, 03:47:36 PM
The original measurement was an average of 37°C, so the average here should be just around 99°F, no decimal places.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 21, 2020, 03:49:35 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 21, 2020, 03:47:36 PM
The original measurement was an average of 37°C, so the average here should be just around 99°F, no decimal places.


but the song says 98.6
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 21, 2020, 03:54:23 PM
The song is wrong,
The song is wrong,

I'm telling you the song is wrong.
And then she said so long
She hooked up with some Hmong
Who was a member of the Tong

And she stole my pickup truck
And frankly I don't give a hoot.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 21, 2020, 04:06:14 PM
I run at 97.3 now. When I went about 100.5 in early March, it was alarming.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 21, 2020, 04:11:53 PM
this song came out the year I went to UT as a freshman

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1TL-F5iLo28 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1TL-F5iLo28)


man am I old
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 21, 2020, 04:39:27 PM
man, you're older than I
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 21, 2020, 04:45:14 PM
this one was a top hit in the fall of 81 when I showed up at UNL


Foreigner - Urgent (1981) - Original Video - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHnNIoNUZig)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 21, 2020, 04:59:23 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 21, 2020, 04:45:14 PM
this one was a top hit in the fall of 81 when I showed up at UNL


Foreigner - Urgent (1981) - Original Video - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHnNIoNUZig)
Hell in 1981 we had already moved into our first house and a 1 year old girl

yes Im a tad older
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 21, 2020, 04:59:52 PM
friggin Boomer
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 21, 2020, 05:16:43 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 21, 2020, 04:59:52 PM
friggin Boomer
yep we are getting fewer and fewer 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 21, 2020, 05:31:49 PM
I'm one of the youngest Boomers

and proud of it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 21, 2020, 06:41:51 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 21, 2020, 05:31:49 PM
I'm one of the youngest Boomers

and proud of it
I'm one of the youngest GenX. 

Which means I narrowly escaped being a Millenial <spit>. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 21, 2020, 06:49:52 PM
just labels

don't mean spit
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on July 21, 2020, 06:56:12 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 21, 2020, 04:59:52 PM
friggin Boomer
leads to duffing and using extra mulligans.You know to prove the 1st one was no fluke
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 21, 2020, 07:01:32 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 21, 2020, 06:41:51 PM
I'm one of the youngest GenX.

Which means I narrowly escaped being a Millenial <spit>.
I'm one of the oldest GenX, but my older friends call me a Boomer. I kinda am.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 21, 2020, 08:45:06 PM
Boomers have sort of suffocated things for everyone else, financially.  They hold all the wealth and have made methods of younger generations acquiring it radically more expensive.  It's messed up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on July 21, 2020, 09:15:02 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 21, 2020, 08:45:06 PM
Boomers have sort of suffocated things for everyone else, financially.  

How so?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on July 21, 2020, 09:37:06 PM
What the actual...?  We deserve a pandemic.

https://twitter.com/MRKR/status/1285587832405360640?s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 21, 2020, 10:00:09 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 21, 2020, 08:45:06 PM
Boomers have sort of suffocated things for everyone else, financially.  They hold all the wealth and have made methods of younger generations acquiring it radically more expensive.  It's messed up.

Says the guy who is not a left wing radical.  😂😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 21, 2020, 10:00:13 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on July 21, 2020, 09:15:02 PM
How so?
I'm sure it's dozens of things, many of which I don't know enough about, but it's mostly concerning housing costs and college cost, with the corresponding debt.  

It was MUCH better to be 35 years old 25 years ago than it is now.  And it's not just those two big factors "happening" - the boomers are the decison-makers, in the aspects that happen to have such a thing.  

Every older generation runs things for a certain time, but things are especially tight for the younger generations now, financially.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 21, 2020, 10:00:51 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 21, 2020, 10:00:09 PM
Says the guy who is not a left wing radical.  😂😂😂
It's about age bands and money....go away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 21, 2020, 10:05:18 PM
I'm just saying, boomers' were much more set up for success in the 'real world' back then than the current generation is.  And you could attribute that to good descriptors of the boomers, and that's fine, but you cannot pretend their inordinate wealth (compared to previous older generations) hasn't come at the expense of those younger than them.

I just think the boomers have acted like an ancient culture, wanting to be buried with all of their things, instead of investing in the future of the society.  I think it's mostly been innocently done by the masses of boomers, but the top influencers have been aware of it and haven't cared.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 21, 2020, 10:07:22 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 21, 2020, 10:00:13 PM
Every older generation runs things for a certain time, but things are especially tight for the younger generations now, financially.
it wasn't good for a young person getting out of school in 1981 with 30 year mortgage rates at 17%
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 21, 2020, 10:07:42 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 21, 2020, 10:00:51 PM
It's about age bands and money....go away.
Orange did somebody pee in your cheerios

no matter what the subject you have to do an impression of Debbie Downer


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfE93xON8jk

d (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfE93xON8jk)oes this look familiar Orangie
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 21, 2020, 10:10:24 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 21, 2020, 10:05:18 PM
I just think the boomers have acted like an ancient culture, wanting to be buried with all of their things, instead of investing in the future of the society.  I think it's mostly been innocently done by the masses of boomers, but the top influencers have been aware of it and haven't cared.
for me, I've saved for my daughter's education and for my retirement

I wasn't sure Social Security would still be there for me in retirement
So, you're right, I haven't spent money trying to promote the future, just wanted to be self sufficient and not a drag on society
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 21, 2020, 10:18:01 PM
What I'm saying isn't eye-opening at all....except to a board full of boomers.

Not trying to stir the pot, just a tangent that none of you will acknowledge.  Forget I said anything.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on July 21, 2020, 10:19:43 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 21, 2020, 10:00:13 PM
I'm sure it's dozens of things, many of which I don't know enough about, but it's mostly concerning housing costs and college cost, with the corresponding debt. 

It was MUCH better to be 35 years old 25 years ago than it is now.  And it's not just those two big factors "happening" - the boomers are the decison-makers, in the aspects that happen to have such a thing. 

Every older generation runs things for a certain time, but things are especially tight for the younger generations now, financially.
Bullshit. I’m solid gen X, born in ‘75. You hardly ever hear much about this generation.  It’s almost as if we went straight from boomers to millennials. I work with and know so many millennials it ain’t even funny 
The vast majority of millennials that I know went straight from their parents house into a better, nicer house. They took out vast amounts of student loans to go to college for degrees that don’t pay squat.  They bought rv’s, boats, and motorcycles all before the age of 30. They drowned themselves in so much debt but all you ever hear about is how boomers made it hard for them. 

They never saw how most boomers, my parents generation, started out with a small wedding. A small house. Maybe they had college, maybe they didn’t. They toiled at shitty jobs, working their way up, saving, increasing their lifestyle bit by bit. Later in life their fruits paid off, they were able to live the good life. 

millenials always skip the toiling and sweat part. Well, most do.  I do know a few who are frugal and building their future. 

Being sandwiched between generations I feel like I know them both well enough. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 21, 2020, 10:29:16 PM
Can we bypass the half dozen "yeah, but I know someone" anecdotes that don't dispel anything already said?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 21, 2020, 10:34:31 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 21, 2020, 10:29:16 PM
Can we bypass the half dozen "yeah, but I know someone" anecdotes that don't dispel anything already said?
Why do you get a free pass to single out a segment of our population and say they are the cause of todays problems

reminds me of what Hitler did against the Jews
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 21, 2020, 10:45:08 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 21, 2020, 10:18:01 PM
What I'm saying isn't eye-opening at all....except to a board full of boomers.

Not trying to stir the pot, just a tangent that none of you will acknowledge.  Forget I said anything.
I gave two instances of my life as a boomer

didn't say what you posted was wrong

my post about saving money actually agrees with your post
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 21, 2020, 10:46:06 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 21, 2020, 10:34:31 PM
reminds me of what Hitler did against the Jews
Badger and utee don't like it when we use politician's names
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 21, 2020, 11:15:53 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 21, 2020, 10:46:06 PM
Badger and utee don't like it when we use politician's names
ok then the guy with a mustache that spoke German
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on July 21, 2020, 11:31:13 PM
Hans Gruber?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on July 21, 2020, 11:57:40 PM
shoot the glass!

Who you calling Boomer?  Pretty sure I was born in the year w fewer births than any year post war.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 12:10:26 AM
I was born so long ago there were still civil war veterans alive
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 22, 2020, 04:37:34 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 21, 2020, 10:18:01 PM
What I'm saying isn't eye-opening at all....except to a board full of boomers.

Not trying to stir the pot, just a tangent that none of you will acknowledge.  Forget I said anything.
This is not a shell game, where “wealth” is the marble and there are 3 cups, and someone is hiding it.  “Wealth” is not finite.  It is created, and creatable.

whatever wealth I have took me 34 years in the workforce, and scratching out a living, and investing and saving like a dog to create.

Never in our countries history have young people had so much wealth.  Much of it created by their ingenuity, some of it passed down from their parents or inherited by family who actually worked to create it.

Unfortunately the young people of today feel entitled. They believe they should be able to have nice cars nice houses boats etc. just because they should or as their parents and older generation had to work for years to acquire those things.

re-distributing the wealth is the common call of socialist, communist, and liberals, so let me suggest that you go away. 

If it is wealth you want I suggest you go work to create it instead of trying to take it from someone who has already earned it. It’s called meritocracy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 22, 2020, 06:29:59 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 22, 2020, 04:37:34 AM
This is not a shell game, where “wealth” is the marble and there are 3 cups, and someone is hiding it.  “Wealth” is not finite.  It is created, and creatable.

whatever wealth I have took me 34 years in the workforce, and scratching out a living, and investing and saving like a dog to create.

Never in our countries history have young people had so much wealth.  Much of it created by their ingenuity, some of it passed down from their parents or inherited by family who actually worked to create it.

Unfortunately the young people of today feel entitled. They believe they should be able to have nice cars nice houses boats etc. just because they should or as their parents and older generation had to work for years to acquire those things.

re-distributing the wealth is the common call of socialist, communist, and liberals, so let me suggest that you go away.

If it is wealth you want I suggest you go work to create it instead of trying to take it from someone who has already earned it. It’s called meritocracy.
One problem is our policies, which help to move wealth away from the hardworking people and towards the people who already have it.  For example, housing and education costs have outstripped inflation, so buying a house 40 years ago and doing nothing but laying around in it would put you far ahead of someone today who is working hard, as they have huge loans coming out the gate.  In many areas it is quite difficult to get by without a car, which becomes a large but necessary expense because we haven't invested in much public transportation.  So the hard working young people start way behind the game that their comparably lazy parents did.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 22, 2020, 06:38:41 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on July 22, 2020, 06:29:59 AM
One problem is our policies, which help to move wealth away from the hardworking people and towards the people who already have it.  For example, housing and education costs have outstripped inflation, so buying a house 40 years ago and doing nothing but laying around in it would put you far ahead of someone today who is working hard, as they have huge loans coming out the gate.  In many areas it is quite difficult to get by without a car, which becomes a large but necessary expense because we haven't invested in much public transportation.  So the hard working young people start way behind the game that their comparably lazy parents did.
Huh?  Paid my way through college including multiple student loans because my parents didn’t have the money to give me. Got my degree got a job leased a cheap car and rented for many years, saved to buy my first small cheap house, kept working hard until I could move up a house. Struggled to put food on our table while we had children and started saving for their college immediately. Very slowly started seeing increases in income. Didn’t really have money for a nice car until I was 40.  

The money I was very diligently saving for retirement got clipped bad in my early 40s when the 2000 recession hit. 

 is no different today it’s just at the younger people are more entitled and lazy. They’re starting salaries are substantially higher than ours were relatively speaking. Their opportunity to skip from one company to the next to get an increase in pay is 10 times more easier than it was.

It always makes me sick when people want what someone else has and has earned versus getting it on their own but that’s the liberal way today
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 22, 2020, 06:49:33 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 22, 2020, 06:38:41 AM
Huh?  Paid my way through college including multiple student loans because my parents didn’t have the money to give me. Got my degree got a job leased a cheap car and rented for many years, saved to buy my first small cheap house, kept working hard until I could move up a house. Struggled to put food on our table while we had children and started saving for their college immediately. Very slowly started seeing increases in income. Didn’t really have money for a nice car until I was 40. 

The money I was very diligently saving for retirement got clipped bad in my early 40s when the 2000 recession hit.

 is no different today it’s just at the younger people are more entitled and lazy. They’re starting salaries are substantially higher than ours were relatively speaking. Their opportunity to skip from one company to the next to get an increase in pay is 10 times more easier than it was.

It always makes me sick when people want what someone else has and has earned versus getting it on their own but that’s the liberal way today
Your story is indistinguishable from young people's today, except that they also get a big debt on top of it (and housing is way more expensive).  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 22, 2020, 06:53:25 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on July 22, 2020, 06:29:59 AM
One problem is our policies, which help to move wealth away from the hardworking people and towards the people who already have it.  For example, housing and education costs have outstripped inflation, so buying a house 40 years ago and doing nothing but laying around in it would put you far ahead of someone today who is working hard, as they have huge loans coming out the gate.  In many areas it is quite difficult to get by without a car, which becomes a large but necessary expense because we haven't invested in much public transportation.  So the hard working young people start way behind the game that their comparably lazy parents did.
I don't know what planet you're living on, but I can tell you that buying a home today is less expensive than it was when I bought my first house. The banks are practically giving money away at 3-4% interest rates where my first home had a rate of 13%. 

As for need for transportation, I assume you live in a city or large town. I spent my first 15 years in Columbus and can tell you that at 12, I could get almost anywhere in the city with something called COTA. After that, we moved north into a rural area where the closest town with a store was 7 miles. And there is NO COTA. When I turned 16, I had a job and paid for my first POS car that was able to get me around (when I wasn't working on it to keep it running). No, I didn't get a brand new car and there was no leasing of vehicles at the time. If you wanted a car, you had to either get financing or have the money to buy it. 

We also didn't have the luxuries that today's youth have. We didn't have cable TV or internet, but we did have a phone (which was on a party line shared with 2 neighbors). There were not personal computers or I pads, VCRs, DVR's, XBox's, etc. I had a bicycle and a friend that lived only 3 miles away. And I wouldn't trade those years for anything.

You have not walked in our shoes and have no idea what you are talking about. The wealth that we have, was earned, not handed to us. I would suggest to those complaining about their situation, do the same. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 22, 2020, 07:11:18 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on July 22, 2020, 06:49:33 AM
Your story is indistinguishable from young people's today, except that they also get a big debt on top of it (and housing is way more expensive). 
My story is indistinguishable from millions of people in my age group.  Some had a little help from their parents to get through to a degree. But they started with nothing but a degree and have worked their way to being close to retirement and are just starting to benefit from the fruits of their 30 years of labor.  They put their kids through school, saved like crazy for retirement since their are no pensions for most of them, give generously to charity of their money and time, pay huge amounts of their income to taxes. 
in many cases, such as mine, their children’s incomes are tenfold higher than their own at the same age.  Their children’s ability to buy a house is exponentially easier due to 3% rates versus 10%, and the ability to put nothing down. Let
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 22, 2020, 07:13:10 AM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 22, 2020, 06:53:25 AM
I don't know what planet you're living on, but I can tell you that buying a home today is less expensive than it was when I bought my first house. The banks are practically giving money away at 3-4% interest rates where my first home had a rate of 13%.

As for need for transportation, I assume you live in a city or large town. I spent my first 15 years in Columbus and can tell you that at 12, I could get almost anywhere in the city with something called COTA. After that, we moved north into a rural area where the closest town with a store was 7 miles. And there is NO COTA. When I turned 16, I had a job and paid for my first POS car that was able to get me around (when I wasn't working on it to keep it running). No, I didn't get a brand new car and there was no leasing of vehicles at the time. If you wanted a car, you had to either get financing or have the money to buy it.

We also didn't have the luxuries that today's youth have. We didn't have cable TV or internet, but we did have a phone (which was on a party line shared with 2 neighbors). There were not personal computers or I pads, VCRs, DVR's, XBox's, etc. I had a bicycle and a friend that lived only 3 miles away. And I wouldn't trade those years for anything.

You have not walked in our shoes and have no idea what you are talking about. The wealth that we have, was earned, not handed to us. I would suggest to those complaining about their situation, do the same.
Housing costs aren't some some sort of mystery. They have outstripped other forms of inflation.  In some cities they have far outstripped other forms of inflation.  Interest rates have gone down, but that doesn't matter much to renters (who are typically the young entitled people you are complaining about).  In any event, whatever you have gone through isn't any different than what people today have gone through, except that housing prices and education are way more expensive. 

COTA still exists in Columbus.  In 2012 it was ranked 24th out of the 25 biggest cities for public transportation.  It's frankly somewhat embarrassing that our major cities are so inept at public services compared to other countries, though that is in direct relationship with the supposed "hard workers" wanting to turn a profit off of the backs of younger poorer people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 22, 2020, 07:17:58 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 22, 2020, 07:11:18 AM
My story is indistinguishable from millions of people in my age group.  Some had a little help from their parents to get through to a degree. But they started with nothing but a degree and have worked their way to being close to retirement and are just starting to benefit from the fruits of their 30 years of labor.  They put their kids through school, saved like crazy for retirement since their are no pensions for most of them, give generously to charity of their money and time, pay huge amounts of their income to taxes. 
in many cases, such as mine, their children’s incomes are tenfold higher than their own at the same age.  Their children’s ability to buy a house is exponentially easier due to 3% rates versus 10%, and the ability to put nothing down. Let
Buying a house may be easier, it is undoubtedly more expensive. As is education.  And health insurance.  Young people may have it easier in some respects - they clearly have it harder in those respects.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 22, 2020, 08:17:09 AM
Quote from: ELA on July 21, 2020, 09:37:06 PM
What the actual...?  We deserve a pandemic.

https://twitter.com/MRKR/status/1285587832405360640?s=19
That twit makes no sense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 22, 2020, 08:21:27 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 21, 2020, 10:00:13 PM
I'm sure it's dozens of things, many of which I don't know enough about, but it's mostly concerning housing costs and college cost, with the corresponding debt. 

It was MUCH better to be 35 years old 25 years ago than it is now.  And it's not just those two big factors "happening" - the boomers are the decison-makers, in the aspects that happen to have such a thing. 

Every older generation runs things for a certain time, but things are especially tight for the younger generations now, financially.
Those liberal arts professors gotta get paid.

And the landlords have to pay for Kollege for their own kids.

Maybe to get a useful degree?? Maybe??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 22, 2020, 08:32:04 AM
I had it a LOT easier than my parents did.  I think my kids had it a bit easier than I did, but really about the same.

As for cruises, I think a lot of folks my age view a cruise a year as a "thing to do" in retirement.  It kind of solves the problem of what to do on vacation, you fly, board ship, and then it's all taken care of, it's easy.

I'm done with cruises in the US, but we're planning on some more in Europe whenever is S ends.  We might all be getting shots every 4 months or so.

I keep seeing some folks on FB claim they won't get shots because Bill Gates is putting tracking chips inside the vaccine.  And as you would expect, any kind of logical comment about that is rebuffed.  These weird rumors really spread fast and I suppose many of "us" are not critical thinkers, or thinkers at all?

A chip for your pet is about the size of a grain of rice, which is obviously larger than any vaccine needle, and it has no power source, so it can't broadcast your location at all.  I suggested if someone was really concerned about this they could wrap aluminum foil around their arm (and head) to prevent the signal from going out, and their phone to boot, since phones locate you unless you turn it off.

And why would Bill Gates care about this at all?  Why would anyone?  Maybe for marketing purposes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on July 22, 2020, 08:44:07 AM
We will still cruise.   We want to go on a European for our upcoming 25th wedding anniversary.   Our kids love the cruises as well.   We enjoy the fact that most things are taken care of once you board... we enjoy the fact that you get to see different places without having to pack and unpack your luggage and move hotels...  we enjoy the fact that cruises have a lot of entertainment options and we don't have to plan our days...

I do expect some changes to be made on cruises, but we will go again.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 22, 2020, 08:45:36 AM
GA new reported cases MAY have leveled, albeit at a high level.  There was a death spike yesterday, just for one day.  Hospital usage leveled but just for one day, it's still quite high.

I'm going in today to have a doc look at my shoulder, maybe getting an MRI to check it out.  The wife talked me into it, and we are supposed to have baseball in January again.  I'd love to bring my ol' heater back with me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 22, 2020, 08:46:37 AM
We did one Euro cruise and it was great, we did one river cruise and it was OK, it was kind of a cut rate operation.

The caliber of passenger in a Euro cruise is quite a bit different than a Carib cruise in my experience.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 22, 2020, 08:47:27 AM
And I've learned that "free" ultimate beverage package is not nearly free.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 22, 2020, 08:52:49 AM
We have 2 cruises booked already.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 22, 2020, 09:01:39 AM
I don't hate cruises but they aren't my first choice. Costco was surprisingly cheap and easy to plan a vacation through. Would love to book a trip to Ireland when we can.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 09:29:37 AM
Back when my daughter was applying to many universities I told her "Honey you can go to any college you want to but Im not paying any more then what the Univ of Texas charges"  Funny thing she decided to become a Horn. My job was done
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on July 22, 2020, 09:38:06 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 09:29:37 AM
Back when my daughter was applying to many universities I told her "Honey you can go to any college you want to but Im not paying any more then what the Univ of Texas charges"  Funny thing she decided to become a Horn. My job was done
why do you hate your daughter?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 09:42:30 AM
Quote from: Entropy on July 22, 2020, 09:38:06 AM
why do you hate your daughter?
dont hate her

she went to UT law and is now making 3 times more then I ever made

I might just keep her in the will cause she probably will be supporting me one day
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 22, 2020, 09:45:29 AM
Just finished up a Zoom with my Wednesday AM networking group. Really looking forward to meeting in person again, but I doubt that will happen before I'm a Floridian. Hell, next week I become a Wisconsinite for 2 months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 09:52:57 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 22, 2020, 09:45:29 AM
Just finished up a Zoom with my Wednesday AM networking group. Really looking forward to meeting in person again, but I doubt that will happen before I'm a Floridian. Hell, next week I become a Wisconsinite for 2 months.
I think the use of zoom will be one of the things that will carry over from these days

I never could figure out why folks would travel from place a to place b to have a business meeting when most of what you want to do can be done using zoom

back in my working days my boss and I would travel to NY City about once every 4 months just to have a hour long financial meeting with investors.  This trip cost our company over $2,000 every time we went.  Today we could just jump on zoom and be done with it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 22, 2020, 09:54:29 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 09:52:57 AM
I think the use of zoom will be one of the things that will carry over from these days

I never could figure out why folks would travel from place a to place b to have a business meeting when most of what you want to do can be done using zoom

back in my working days my boss and I would travel to NY City about once every 4 months just to have a hour long financial meeting with investors.  This trip cost our company over $2,000 every time we went.  Today we could just jump on zoom and be done with it
Man I hope. Court has been conducting a lot of hearings over Zoom. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 22, 2020, 10:06:54 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on July 22, 2020, 06:49:33 AM
Your story is indistinguishable from young people's today, except that they also get a big debt on top of it (and housing is way more expensive). 
why do today's young people get a big debt?  Credit cards and student loans?

Credit cards weren't a thing when I was in college in the early 80's, but student loan rates were very high.
I chose to work while in high school to save for college and over the summer while in college to lessen my need for loans.  I also dropped out of college because I didn't want the debt for a degree that might not get me a decent job.

no one is forcing young people today to take on more debt than they can manage
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 22, 2020, 10:08:04 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 22, 2020, 06:38:41 AM
Huh?  Paid my way through college including multiple student loans because my parents didn’t have the money to give me.
What did college cost you and in which year?

(This isn't meant to be a gotcha. I know I've had this discussion with my parents and I am generally curious if we're talking in the same terms)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 22, 2020, 10:16:45 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 09:29:37 AM
Back when my daughter was applying to many universities I told her "Honey you can go to any college you want to but Im not paying any more then what the Univ of Texas charges"  Funny thing she decided to become a Horn. My job was done
had a similar discussion with my daughter - when the 529 account is empty, it's on her

she wanted to attend UNL, out of state from Iowa - double the price
she decided to start a semester late to live with her grandma in Nebraska to qualify for residency
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 22, 2020, 10:17:51 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 22, 2020, 10:06:54 AM
why do today's young people get a big debt?  Credit cards and student loans?

Credit cards weren't a thing when I was in college in the early 80's, but student loan rates were very high.
I chose to work while in high school to save for college and over the summer while in college to lessen my need for loans.  I also dropped out of college because I didn't want the debt for a degree that might not get me a decent job.

no one is forcing young people today to take on more debt than they can manage
Credit cards get pushed on young people, but they are typically much less substantial than student loans. Also student loans can't be discharged through bankruptcy. No one is "forcing" anything except difficult decisions that previous general generations didn't have to deal with.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 22, 2020, 10:17:58 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on July 22, 2020, 10:08:04 AM
What did college cost you and in which year?

(This isn't meant to be a gotcha. I know I've had this discussion with my parents and I am generally curious if we're talking in the same terms)
What did the professors make, and in what year?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 22, 2020, 10:24:38 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 22, 2020, 10:17:58 AM
What did the professors make, and in what year?
In the discussion at hand, not super relevant. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on July 22, 2020, 10:26:02 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 09:42:30 AM
dont hate her

she went to UT law and is now making 3 times more then I ever made

I might just keep her in the will cause she probably will be supporting me one day
=)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 22, 2020, 10:28:00 AM
My brother and I had to deal with those decisions back in the early 80s

earlier generations didn't send a high percentage of kids to college

as discussed here many times - trade schools and community colleges are a much less expensive option and provide value

sometimes the decision NOT to attend a University is the wise option
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 10:29:16 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on July 22, 2020, 10:24:38 AM
In the discussion at hand, not super relevant.
college has to cost a lot to afford paying the head coach $1,000,000 salary
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 22, 2020, 10:29:50 AM
not at UNL
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 22, 2020, 10:30:50 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on July 22, 2020, 10:24:38 AM
In the discussion at hand, not super relevant.
Why is it not relevant? Professors make triple what they did when I was in school, and they have very generous retirement packages.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 10:30:55 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 22, 2020, 10:28:00 AM
My brother and I had to deal with those decisions back in the early 80s

earlier generations didn't send a high percentage of kids to college

as discussed here many times - trade schools and community colleges are a much less expensive option and provide value

sometimes the decision NOT to attend a University is the wise option
College is not for everybody

Become a plumber if you want to make the big bucks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 10:31:41 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 22, 2020, 10:29:50 AM
not at UNL
maybe thats their problem
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 22, 2020, 10:32:26 AM
I just don't see it that young folks have it tougher these days than prior generations

but, I'm a boomer and that's how boomers think

I also don't think this belongs on the virus thread
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 22, 2020, 10:33:13 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 10:31:41 AM
maybe thats their problem
the Athletic department doesn't print $$$ at the same rate as UT-A, but they are doing fine
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 10:38:08 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 22, 2020, 10:33:13 AM
the Athletic department doesn't print $$$ at the same rate as UT-A, but they are doing fine
well maybe you guys need to buy one of our presses

we'll give you a good deal on one
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 22, 2020, 10:38:22 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 22, 2020, 10:30:50 AM
Why is it not relevant? Professors make triple what they did when I was in school, and they have very generous retirement packages.
Well, because we're having a discussion about consumer-side finances. At least, that's the subject where my post was aimed. 

(Does this work in other situations? Are medical costs rising because doctors are paid more? Are houses more expensive because people in construction get paid more?)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 10:40:23 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 22, 2020, 10:32:26 AM
I just don't see it that young folks have it tougher these days than prior generations

but, I'm a boomer and that's how boomers think

I also don't think this belongs on the virus thread
ok back to the virus

did anyone watch the Presidents press conf yesterday on the virus

not if you watch CNN cause they didnt carry it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 22, 2020, 10:44:59 AM
good for CNN

most folks shouldn't watch the president's press conference
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 22, 2020, 10:55:28 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 22, 2020, 10:32:26 AM
I just don't see it that young folks have it tougher these days than prior generations

but, I'm a boomer and that's how boomers think

I also don't think this belongs on the virus thread
Ehh, I like it better than most of the virus talk, TBH. 

I don't know that young people have it tougher (I don't even know what cohort is "young" any more). They certianly have certain nicer things. They seem to have less access to certain other, more basic things. Some of that is tied into the decline of blue collar work, the slip of private sector unions, a few other factors. In any case, it seems there's less stability, but perhaps that's just perspective looking back. By the same token, some parts of society have it a lot better, and their experience can't be minimized. 

I suppose it's all relative. People who were older now were the first generation to not understand how credit card debt worked. They were in positions of more responsibility when our national savings rate hovered around zero in 2008 before the crash. 

Let me put it another way. I think, on average, generations aren't all that different. There are some smart folks, some stupid ones, some very responsible and some very irresponsible. The boomers are not inherently special, nor is the current generation. But, our attention focuses on different groups when it suits different needs, namely the desire to feel some degree of aggrieved. Younger people look back at some of the entitlement of boomers (what happened to pensions?), without acknowledgment of how much of that position was built. Older people look down on some of the frivolities, setting aside the fact it's not like young dummies invented frivolities and many young people are thrifty and all that kinds of stuff. Everyone casts themselves as hero of victim in their own way. 

Chances are, no one is that special. Their situations are different. The struggles and satisfactions are to a degree overblown. I hope some of the challenges my cohort felt can translate into frugality down the line and the world will just keep on spinning. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 10:55:48 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 22, 2020, 10:44:59 AM
good for CNN

most folks shouldn't watch the president's press conference
dont hide your feelings there

just speak 

actually yesterday he talked about the vaccine development which was interesting
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 22, 2020, 10:58:26 AM
Boomers are not the ones spreading this virus. It's the "all about me" kids.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 22, 2020, 11:06:18 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 10:55:48 AM
dont hide your feelings there

just speak

actually yesterday he talked about the vaccine development which was interesting
if you're watching just to praise anything that the pres says, or to hate everything he says or the way he acts
there's no reason to watch
we all know who he is....... or we should by now

most watch merely to justify their own opinions - a very foolish waste of time
and if you're a hater that is just watching to raise your blood pressure - it's more dangerous than just foolish
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on July 22, 2020, 11:08:39 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 21, 2020, 08:45:06 PM
Boomers have sort of suffocated things for everyone else, financially.  They hold all the wealth and have made methods of younger generations acquiring it radically more expensive.  It's messed up.


Yes, We all got together to make sure this happened :72:


BTW I am joking not trying to be snarky
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 11:19:17 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 22, 2020, 11:06:18 AM
if you're watching just to praise anything that the pres says, or to hate everything he says or the way he acts
there's no reason to watch
we all know who he is....... or we should by now

most watch merely to justify their own opinions - a very foolish waste of time
and if you're a hater that is just watching to raise your blood pressure - it's more dangerous than just foolish
I felt the same way about the President before this one

anyway if your goal is to not watch him CNN will help you out on this

right now this country has a big problem so until we solve it I intend to watch anything which will give me news on the latest developments
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 22, 2020, 11:27:18 AM
Quote from: Riffraft on July 22, 2020, 11:08:39 AM
Yes, We all got together to make sure this happened :72:


BTW I am joking not trying to be snarky
The Boomers like me got together in 1967 and started the Egg Lobby with the intent of nefariously getting ours and keeping our kids from having any.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 22, 2020, 11:39:25 AM
the egg lobby is a weak attempt vs the young people of today

back in my day, eggs were for breakfast

now days, young folks eat all sorts of other proteins early in the day - some of them don't even contain meat! 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 22, 2020, 11:47:30 AM
The Egg Lobby was never about eggs, that's the beauty of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 22, 2020, 12:49:09 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 09:52:57 AM
I think the use of zoom will be one of the things that will carry over from these days

I never could figure out why folks would travel from place a to place b to have a business meeting when most of what you want to do can be done using zoom

back in my working days my boss and I would travel to NY City about once every 4 months just to have a hour long financial meeting with investors.  This trip cost our company over $2,000 every time we went.  Today we could just jump on zoom and be done with it
In sales, relationships matter. It's easy to conduct business over a Zoom; it's hard to develop relationships. 

I don't think there's truly a substitute for F2F meetings as a whole. I think that things like Zoom might reduce the overall need to have F2F meetings, but won't eliminate it entirely. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 12:59:08 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 22, 2020, 12:49:09 PM
In sales, relationships matter. It's easy to conduct business over a Zoom; it's hard to develop relationships.

I don't think there's truly a substitute for F2F meetings as a whole. I think that things like Zoom might reduce the overall need to have F2F meetings, but won't eliminate it entirely.
if youre making a presentation or if its sales client related I agree but not for normal planing sessions

In addition to saving money its much more efficient

Instead of a company officer spending 4 days on the road he/she only spends an hour on a zoom meeting and goes on to other company matters

as far as contacts are concerned stop all the texting and pick up the damn phone if youre in high school thats fine but if youre in the business world the phone is better
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 22, 2020, 01:30:21 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 22, 2020, 10:58:26 AM
Boomers are not the ones spreading this virus. It's the "all about me" kids.
no, but Boomers are dying

just had a conversation with a co-worker.  her mother is in her late 80's and has COPD.  Obviously high risk.  Mom refuses to stay home.  Isn't good about washing hands after being in stores.  Does wear a mask, but isn't good about proper procedures
I imagine mom would allow young people into her home.

Mom isn't protecting herself from the spread from young people!  SMH!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 22, 2020, 01:46:38 PM
From July 7th, so deaths should dropping fast in Texas...........

Dr. Richard Bartlett, a Dallas MD who previously advised Governor Rick Perry for 7 years has a lifesaving COVID breakthrough, that Taiwan, Japan, Singapore and Iceland are also using. The breakthrough is an inexpensive generic drug used to help asthmatics for more than 20 years, but the US and most of the world’s governments are using the WHO’s blind acceptance of the failed China strategy.

The deaths in every state, and every country could almost stop overnight if health professionals changed course immediately. For some reason, the NIH and CDC want to act as slow as molasses, but a small number of doctors are already doing this with their patients and they are seeing immediate success.

Will it work for every single patient? That remains to be seen, but many people who have used this protocol saw immediate results. This is the same path taken by Taiwan (24 million people, 7 deaths), Japan (126 million, 977 deaths), Singapore (5.6 million, 26 deaths) Iceland (341,000 population, 10 deaths).


https://newsblaze.com/usnews/health/covid-19-no-vaccine-needed-there-is-already-a-cure_166305/?fbclid=IwAR27wUBeUiCXHd2odkrqtrAOY_rVcVXJtYu5OW9M0Un8hLJ8vi7AGo7XoQg (https://newsblaze.com/usnews/health/covid-19-no-vaccine-needed-there-is-already-a-cure_166305/?fbclid=IwAR27wUBeUiCXHd2odkrqtrAOY_rVcVXJtYu5OW9M0Un8hLJ8vi7AGo7XoQg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on July 22, 2020, 01:57:40 PM
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-siemens-idUSKCN24H1FI (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-siemens-idUSKCN24H1FI)

Siemens to let staff spend less time in the office permanently

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 02:06:15 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 22, 2020, 01:46:38 PM
From July 7th, so deaths should dropping fast in Texas...........

Dr. Richard Bartlett, a Dallas MD who previously advised Governor Rick Perry for 7 years has a lifesaving COVID breakthrough, that Taiwan, Japan, Singapore and Iceland are also using. The breakthrough is an inexpensive generic drug used to help asthmatics for more than 20 years, but the US and most of the world’s governments are using the WHO’s blind acceptance of the failed China strategy.

The deaths in every state, and every country could almost stop overnight if health professionals changed course immediately. For some reason, the NIH and CDC want to act as slow as molasses, but a small number of doctors are already doing this with their patients and they are seeing immediate success.

Will it work for every single patient? That remains to be seen, but many people who have used this protocol saw immediate results. This is the same path taken by Taiwan (24 million people, 7 deaths), Japan (126 million, 977 deaths), Singapore (5.6 million, 26 deaths) Iceland (341,000 population, 10 deaths).


https://newsblaze.com/usnews/health/covid-19-no-vaccine-needed-there-is-already-a-cure_166305/?fbclid=IwAR27wUBeUiCXHd2odkrqtrAOY_rVcVXJtYu5OW9M0Un8hLJ8vi7AGo7XoQg (https://newsblaze.com/usnews/health/covid-19-no-vaccine-needed-there-is-already-a-cure_166305/?fbclid=IwAR27wUBeUiCXHd2odkrqtrAOY_rVcVXJtYu5OW9M0Un8hLJ8vi7AGo7XoQg)
just dont let the President endorse it or its toast
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 02:09:55 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 22, 2020, 01:46:38 PM
From July 7th, so deaths should dropping fast in Texas...........

Dr. Richard Bartlett, a Dallas MD who previously advised Governor Rick Perry for 7 years has a lifesaving COVID breakthrough, that Taiwan, Japan, Singapore and Iceland are also using. The breakthrough is an inexpensive generic drug used to help asthmatics for more than 20 years, but the US and most of the world’s governments are using the WHO’s blind acceptance of the failed China strategy.

The deaths in every state, and every country could almost stop overnight if health professionals changed course immediately. For some reason, the NIH and CDC want to act as slow as molasses, but a small number of doctors are already doing this with their patients and they are seeing immediate success.

Will it work for every single patient? That remains to be seen, but many people who have used this protocol saw immediate results. This is the same path taken by Taiwan (24 million people, 7 deaths), Japan (126 million, 977 deaths), Singapore (5.6 million, 26 deaths) Iceland (341,000 population, 10 deaths).


https://newsblaze.com/usnews/health/covid-19-no-vaccine-needed-there-is-already-a-cure_166305/?fbclid=IwAR27wUBeUiCXHd2odkrqtrAOY_rVcVXJtYu5OW9M0Un8hLJ8vi7AGo7XoQg (https://newsblaze.com/usnews/health/covid-19-no-vaccine-needed-there-is-already-a-cure_166305/?fbclid=IwAR27wUBeUiCXHd2odkrqtrAOY_rVcVXJtYu5OW9M0Un8hLJ8vi7AGo7XoQg)
They never say what the name of this drug is
I smell a rat
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 22, 2020, 02:18:15 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 02:09:55 PM
They never say what the name of this drug is
I smell a rat
I was about to say the same thing. And there's supposedly a link to his paper at the end of the article, but it goes to a 404 error.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 22, 2020, 02:20:17 PM
Snake oil and other essential oils works well to I hear.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 22, 2020, 02:38:23 PM
Illinois is on an uptick. 

Chicago bars close on Friday, in a rollback by the Mayor. 

Some may never re-open.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 02:40:24 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 22, 2020, 02:38:23 PM
Illinois is on an uptick.

Chicago bars close on Friday, in a rollback by the Mayor.

Some may never re-open.
they will just have to shoot at each other some place else
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 22, 2020, 02:48:28 PM
I'm pretty sure the bar owners are not the ones shooting each other.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 02:53:43 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 22, 2020, 02:48:28 PM
I'm pretty sure the bar owners are not the ones shooting each other.
then they are the only ones
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 22, 2020, 03:02:17 PM
bar owners have other things to tend to
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 22, 2020, 03:11:44 PM
Funny... Bar owners *were* shooting each other, to an extent, from about 1920->1933...

I can't imagine what was similar about that situation and now...

(This convo should probably be moved to 2020 SoU thread though).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 03:14:50 PM
Hey remember this is Chicago we are talking about

Hello McFly just yesterday 17 folks shot

Its good the bar owners aint participating

now if we can just get the rest of the hood to fall in line
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 22, 2020, 05:42:28 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 22, 2020, 01:46:38 PM
From July 7th, so deaths should dropping fast in Texas...........

Dr. Richard Bartlett, a Dallas MD who previously advised Governor Rick Perry for 7 years has a lifesaving COVID breakthrough, that Taiwan, Japan, Singapore and Iceland are also using. The breakthrough is an inexpensive generic drug used to help asthmatics for more than 20 years, but the US and most of the world’s governments are using the WHO’s blind acceptance of the failed China strategy.

The deaths in every state, and every country could almost stop overnight if health professionals changed course immediately. For some reason, the NIH and CDC want to act as slow as molasses, but a small number of doctors are already doing this with their patients and they are seeing immediate success.

Will it work for every single patient? That remains to be seen, but many people who have used this protocol saw immediate results. This is the same path taken by Taiwan (24 million people, 7 deaths), Japan (126 million, 977 deaths), Singapore (5.6 million, 26 deaths) Iceland (341,000 population, 10 deaths).


https://newsblaze.com/usnews/health/covid-19-no-vaccine-needed-there-is-already-a-cure_166305/?fbclid=IwAR27wUBeUiCXHd2odkrqtrAOY_rVcVXJtYu5OW9M0Un8hLJ8vi7AGo7XoQg (https://newsblaze.com/usnews/health/covid-19-no-vaccine-needed-there-is-already-a-cure_166305/?fbclid=IwAR27wUBeUiCXHd2odkrqtrAOY_rVcVXJtYu5OW9M0Un8hLJ8vi7AGo7XoQg)
That would be amazing if three countries could all credit a miracle drug with keeping them nearly COVID free for months, but it took until some family doctor in Texas stumbled on it after 100 days for it to come together here. It's not like there isn't a fortune to be made here or anything.

Maybe the world is just that amazing. Or maybe the guy is to a large degree full of it. I lean toward the latter. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 05:48:49 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on July 22, 2020, 05:42:28 PM
That would be amazing if three countries could all credit a miracle drug with keeping them nearly COVID free for months, but it took until some family doctor in Texas stumbled on it after 100 days for it to come together here. It's not like there isn't a fortune to be made here or anything.

Maybe the world is just that amazing. Or maybe the guy is to a large degree full of it. I lean toward the latter.
did you notice they didnt name the drug
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 22, 2020, 05:52:13 PM
We used to have a name for some miracle compound that would do whatever management wanted done, "dimethylbats---".

I would get asked in meetings how long it would take me to invent this miracle whatever.  Dude, this stuff is unknown, it may not ever be known, I'll give it a shot.

I would usually say 22 months.  That was a good length of time and the manager usually would have moved on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 22, 2020, 06:09:25 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 05:48:49 PM
did you notice they didnt name the drug
I didn't. What do you feel should be inferred from that?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 06:10:12 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 22, 2020, 05:52:13 PM
We used to have a name for some miracle compound that would do whatever management wanted done, "dimethylbats---".

I would get asked in meetings how long it would take me to invent this miracle whatever.  Dude, this stuff is unknown, it may not ever be known, I'll give it a shot.

I would usually say 22 months.  That was a good length of time and the manager usually would have moved on.
 make sure it has alcohol in it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 06:11:20 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on July 22, 2020, 06:09:25 PM
I didn't. What do you feel should be inferred from that?
not sure but if I was gonna run a scam I wouldnt name the drug either
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 22, 2020, 06:18:51 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 06:11:20 PM
not sure but if I was gonna run a scam I wouldnt name the drug either
After googling him, he named the drug in his press conference. It's generic budesonide. 

I'd love, LOVE, for him to be right. But I'm at best skeptical some family doc who called a presser for the local news channels has it figured out. Maybe he or someone else at his level will and will do it that way, but until it actually starts turning the tide on this stupid thing, I'm full up on randos peddling wonder drugs. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 06:51:25 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on July 22, 2020, 06:18:51 PM
After googling him, he named the drug in his press conference. It's generic budesonide.

I'd love, LOVE, for him to be right. But I'm at best skeptical some family doc who called a presser for the local news channels has it figured out. Maybe he or someone else at his level will and will do it that way, but until it actually starts turning the tide on this stupid thing, I'm full up on randos peddling wonder drugs.
Right you are

Heres another article with more info on it


ttps://www.ksat.com/news/local/2020/07/14/is-inhaled-steroid-budesonide-really-silver-bullet-for-covid-19/


s (https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2020/07/14/is-inhaled-steroid-budesonide-really-silver-bullet-for-covid-19/)o I hereby remove scam alert and replace it with hope this doctor is right
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on July 22, 2020, 07:15:12 PM
I can say authoritatively ill likely travel 21 days in 2021 for work compared to about 56 days in the typical year.  Our heavy duty travelers will do about 35 down from 100+
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 22, 2020, 09:01:33 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 22, 2020, 06:51:25 PM
Right you are

Heres another article with more info on it


ttps://www.ksat.com/news/local/2020/07/14/is-inhaled-steroid-budesonide-really-silver-bullet-for-covid-19/


s (https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2020/07/14/is-inhaled-steroid-budesonide-really-silver-bullet-for-covid-19/)o I hereby remove scam alert and replace it with hope this doctor is right
I wouldn't say he's wrong, though I think steroids have rapidly become a treatment for severe cases so I'm not sure he's original
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 22, 2020, 09:10:02 PM
No doctor worth a damn would call a potential wellness aid a "silver bullet".....is our society just completely incessant on an easy, cure-all?  FFS.

(https://images7.memedroid.com/images/UPLOADED124/55bd5e66baf88.jpeg)
Red Flannel?  Like the shirt?  Yes, pieces of shirt, right in it!!!

It's crap like this that makes COPPER-INFUSED socks a thing.  We will never be better than an easy way out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 22, 2020, 09:33:50 PM
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/inhaled-corticosteroids-a-rapid-review-of-the-evidence-for-treatment-or-prevention-of-covid-19/ (https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/inhaled-corticosteroids-a-rapid-review-of-the-evidence-for-treatment-or-prevention-of-covid-19/)



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 23, 2020, 12:42:49 AM
California bypassed NY for most covid-19 cases.  

That crazy lady doctor that lies for Trump contacted 11 cities to tell them their cases are growing too fast (ie- test less, please).  Those cities are Vegas, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, etc.....just like I said back in March.  Big cities hit hardest first, then the smaller big cities......eventually that small town in Montana is going to be hit hard, too.  This is how it works.  

And from a low in deaths mid-July, they're jumping back up.  As was inevitable, considering whats being done.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 23, 2020, 07:38:32 AM
So, where is the evidence this budesonide has any efficacy?  One in vitro study says no (in vitro is the simplest easiest kind of study that often can show efficacy in glass where there is none in vivo).

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 23, 2020, 08:39:13 AM
TOKYO (AP) — The city of Tokyo announced a record 366 new daily coronavirus cases on Thursday, exceeding 300 for the first time as Japan begins a four-day weekend with many people joining a tourism promotion campaign that the government is pushing despite concerns of a new wave of infections nationwide.

The number of daily cases in Tokyo had fallen to just several in late May after the government ended a national state of emergency but have climbed steadily since late June, with the number tripling in the first three weeks of July. Tokyo now has 10,420 confirmed cases, including 327 deaths.


https://apnews.com/fe5fec45129dfc311505225d38df644f (https://apnews.com/fe5fec45129dfc311505225d38df644f)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 23, 2020, 08:44:01 AM
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The small, neighboring sheikhdoms of Bahrain and Qatar have the world’s highest per capita rates of coronavirus infections. In the two Mideast countries, COVID-19 epidemics initially swept undetected through camps housing healthy and young foreign laborers, studies now show.

In Qatar, a new study found that nearly 60% of those testing positive showed no symptoms at all, calling into question the usefulness of mass temperature checks meant to stop the infected from mingling with others. In Bahrain, authorities put the asymptomatic figure even higher, at 68%.


These results reflect both the wider problems faced by Gulf Arab countries reliant on cheap foreign labor and their relative success in tracking their COVID-19 epidemics, given their oil wealth and authoritarian governments.

Aggressive testing boosted the number of confirmed cases as health officials in Bahrain and Qatar targeted vulnerable labor camps and neighborhoods, where migrant workers from Asia sleep, eat and live up to dozen people per room.

“This is why globally we failed to control, I think, the infection because simply the response has been focused on trying to find cases and isolate them and quarantine their contacts,” said Laith Abu-Raddad, a disease researcher at Weill Cornell Medicine – Qatar. “Now, if most people getting the infection are actually spreading the infection without even knowing it, this really does not actually work.”


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 23, 2020, 08:45:02 AM
I've been told cases in Japan and the middle east were low because those folks didn't mind wearing masks

true or untrue?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 23, 2020, 08:54:21 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 23, 2020, 08:45:02 AM
I've been told cases in Japan and the middle east were low because those folks didn't mind wearing masks

true or untrue?
There is a strong correlation between low incidence and wide spread mask wearing, in Asian countries.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on July 23, 2020, 10:08:11 AM
Finally got the results back from the antibody test. Negative, as expected.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 23, 2020, 10:12:27 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on July 23, 2020, 10:08:11 AM
Finally got the results back from the antibody test. Negative, as expected.


I meant to post about that. You recall I had the test about 5 weeks ago, and showed very little amounts. I tested last week again, and I've got nothing.

Antibodies don't last.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 23, 2020, 10:27:10 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 23, 2020, 10:12:27 AM
I meant to post about that. You recall I had the test about 5 weeks ago, and showed very little amounts. I tested last week again, and I've got nothing.

Antibodies don't last.
Not trying to joist with you but how can you explain the fact that weve heard almost nothing on getting reinfected

maybe there is something that does last that the test doesnt pick up

just a thought
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 23, 2020, 10:31:33 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 23, 2020, 10:27:10 AM
Not trying to joist with you but how can you explain the fact that weve heard almost nothing on getting reinfected

maybe there is something that does last that the test doesnt pick up

just a thought
That's true, but I've seen some doctors lately saying it's possible. There was that one woman from Texas who had it twice, I recall.

I was told that I could get it again. I do not want it again. I'm sure @GopherRock (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=47)  doesn't want it again either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 23, 2020, 10:38:21 AM
I'm no immunologist but my read is that "immunity" isn't an all our nothing proposition. While antibodies may be short-lived your body's immune system doesn't solely consist of antibodies and will be better prepared for subsequent infections.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 23, 2020, 10:55:21 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on July 23, 2020, 10:38:21 AM
I'm no immunologist but my read is that "immunity" isn't an all our nothing proposition. While antibodies may be short-lived your body's immune system doesn't solely consist of antibodies and will be better prepared for subsequent infections.
I've read some about this too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 23, 2020, 11:14:32 AM
sure there be one or two instances but if you could catch it again there would be thousands and there arent

the US has had over 4,000,000 documented positives and only one or two have caught it twice?

Im very doubtful this would be the case without something preventing reinfection

Im not saying permanent protection only that whatever it is it stays around longer then just a few months
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on July 23, 2020, 11:37:28 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 23, 2020, 10:31:33 AM
That's true, but I've seen some doctors lately saying it's possible. There was that one woman from Texas who had it twice, I recall.

I was told that I could get it again. I do not want it again. I'm sure @GopherRock (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=47)  doesn't want it again either.
I do not want what my wife had. Recall that she was hardcore sick for the two weeks after we got back from Italy. So short of breath she had to sleep upright on the couch. 

I might have had a minor infection (I had plugged sinuses for 3-4 days), but that was as sick as I got this winter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 23, 2020, 11:45:46 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on July 23, 2020, 11:37:28 AM
I do not want what my wife had. Recall that she was hardcore sick for the two weeks after we got back from Italy. So short of breath she had to sleep upright on the couch.

I might have had a minor infection (I had plugged sinuses for 3-4 days), but that was as sick as I got this winter.
glad your wife got over it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 23, 2020, 11:47:19 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on July 23, 2020, 11:37:28 AM
I do not want what my wife had. Recall that she was hardcore sick for the two weeks after we got back from Italy. So short of breath she had to sleep upright on the couch.

I might have had a minor infection (I had plugged sinuses for 3-4 days), but that was as sick as I got this winter.
Ah, thanks for clarifying that it was her and not you. Still... no thanks on a repeat, if a repeat is truly possible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 23, 2020, 12:12:31 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on July 23, 2020, 11:37:28 AM
I do not want what my wife had. Recall that she was hardcore sick for the two weeks after we got back from Italy. So short of breath she had to sleep upright on the couch.

I might have had a minor infection (I had plugged sinuses for 3-4 days), but that was as sick as I got this winter.
just out of curiosity was your wife tested for antibodies
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 23, 2020, 12:48:30 PM
If one percent have ever contracted this in the US, that same one percent is unlikely statistically to be infected again (aside from high risk exposures), even with zero immunity.

T-cells and cytokine explosions, very important.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 23, 2020, 01:06:50 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 23, 2020, 12:48:30 PM
If one percent have ever contracted this in the US, that same one percent is unlikely statistically to be infected again (aside from high risk exposures), even with zero immunity.

T-cells and cytokine explosions, very important.


but its high risk exposures Im taking into consideration

out of 4,000,000 how many high risk situations do you figure these folks put themselves into

theres no reason to think that they wouldnt do that again especially in light of the fact many believe you cant catch it twice
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 23, 2020, 01:08:18 PM
I don't know, I'm just thinking about the straight statistics in the simplest case.

And I think you have decent immunity for 3-4 months, antibodies, and then perhaps T cell immunity longer than that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 23, 2020, 01:15:48 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 23, 2020, 01:08:18 PM
I don't know, I'm just thinking about the straight statistics in the simplest case.

And I think you have decent immunity for 3-4 months, antibodies, and then perhaps T cell immunity longer than that.
I think thats a valid assumption
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 23, 2020, 01:22:51 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 23, 2020, 01:15:48 PM
I think thats a valid assumption
I'm taking it as golden.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 23, 2020, 07:04:33 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 23, 2020, 10:27:10 AM
Not trying to joist with you but how can you explain the fact that weve heard almost nothing on getting reinfected
Time. 

Once again, you seem to be in a hurry, while the virus moves at its own pace.  There is no history to study.  You're wanting/expecting stuff from the future (doesn't exist yet) and then making declarations based on the lack of info.  

Over and over and over.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 23, 2020, 07:49:15 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 23, 2020, 07:04:33 PM
Time.

Once again, you seem to be in a hurry, while the virus moves at its own pace.  There is no history to study.  You're wanting/expecting stuff from the future (doesn't exist yet) and then making declarations based on the lack of info. 

Over and over and over.
there is 6 months of history

I didnt mention the future at all

I will ask you this question:  Do you have any opinion on whether antibodies exist or not

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 24, 2020, 09:23:44 AM
I keep wondering at this point what can be done realistically, and I don't have much, a few obvious things, but at the national level, I don't have much.

Push vaccine work, obviously.  Encourage mask wearing.  Allow governors to make their own decisions about bars and schools and etc., I think.  The thing still seems out of control in some places, like hereabouts, and another shut down, to me, seems impracticable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 24, 2020, 11:10:05 AM
encourage folks at risk to isolate themselves
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 24, 2020, 02:32:05 PM
7 day average for cases is going down in Florida, but the deaths are going up. In the past two weeks, the rate of case doubling has gone from 15 days, to 23.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 24, 2020, 02:52:44 PM
My test came back negative.

Will test again in a month or so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 24, 2020, 10:45:57 PM
Have any of you knuckleheads gotten tested for the China virus or antibodies? If not, WHY not??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on July 24, 2020, 11:25:44 PM
Based on 1st hand accounts there have been 4 people that I know of who signed up for but didn't get the test yet got the results.I take precautions and followed protocol - but I'm not building a Bunker.Also I'll find out when I give blood next week
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on July 25, 2020, 01:54:31 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 24, 2020, 10:45:57 PM
Have any of you knuckleheads gotten tested for the China virus or antibodies? If not, WHY not??
I am a knucklehead. I have not been tested. I have been asymptomatic. I have been keeping distance from others. Our 25-year old daughter in grad school is home for the summer; just finished a PT internship where she probably encountered 12 people daily. She is our vector, but she wore a mask, and almost all patients did, except those with COPD or something of that nature. I am in a rural county. I think I am good. The #s here are rising, 3 currently hospitalized in our county of 18,000, and 71 tested positive throughout the pandemic. I had a few clients who had exposures to others who tested positive in my office. On those occasions, we all wore masks, as well as on other occasions I have worn a mask to greet someone here in my office. I am by appointment only. The front door is locked. 

I wear a mask in stores, and I rarely do go to a store. I do not do indoor dining.

This is why I have not tested, in addition to the fact we have no public testing site in this town of 5,000.

The governor reduced testing at a public drive up testing site in Dubuque, 45-miles east, claiming there were issues regarding quality - the only quality reason I heard was concerning long testing lines. There are surging #s in Dubuque, so there are suspicions that testing at that site is limited to 100 per day by the governor because of surging #s. Who knows?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 25, 2020, 05:19:58 AM
People in AZ who were tested July 7th still don't have results back.

On the overhead highway signs, it says "If you feel ill, stay home"....for a virus that's around 70% asymptomatic.  Seriously, a dumber message couldn't be posted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 25, 2020, 07:56:46 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 25, 2020, 05:19:58 AM
People in AZ who were tested July 7th still don't have results back.

On the overhead highway signs, it says "If you feel ill, stay home"....for a virus that's around 70% asymptomatic.  Seriously, a dumber message couldn't be posted.
Why is that a dumb message?  Do you think folks who feel ill should get up and go out and about?

I don't think the asymptomatic rate is 70%, but maybe it is.  There also is presymptomatic.  

Our neighbor got tested day before yesterday and expects results today.  He said the testing facility was crowded.  I'm not sure why he got tested.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 25, 2020, 07:59:32 AM
I don't plan on getting tested except that apparently I will have to before surgery, whenever that is scheduled.  The wife is in the same boat.

I won't be able to drive the car for a week or so unless she shifts.

Might want to stagger these surgeries.

We have very very few contacts in a week where transmission is even somewhat possible.

132,800 known active cases in GA out of 10.6 million residents.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 25, 2020, 08:21:21 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 25, 2020, 07:56:46 AM
Why is that a dumb message?  Do you think folks who feel ill should get up and go out and about?

I don't think the asymptomatic rate is 70%, but maybe it is.  There also is presymptomatic. 

Our neighbor got tested day before yesterday and expects results today.  He said the testing facility was crowded.  I'm not sure why he got tested.


 Curious, do we actually know what % of cases are asymptomatic?   And how does that compare to other communicable viruses?
i have done a bit of searching but can’t find much.  
 Intuitively, doesn’t it seem odd that such a high number of cases are asymptomatic?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 25, 2020, 08:28:37 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 24, 2020, 10:45:57 PM
Have any of you knuckleheads gotten tested for the China virus or antibodies? If not, WHY not??
I have not


I have no reason to suspect I have or had the virus

I have no reason to think I've even come in contact with anyone that has had the virus
I could waste a test, but why would I?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 25, 2020, 08:54:48 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 24, 2020, 10:45:57 PM
Have any of you knuckleheads gotten tested for the China virus or antibodies? If not, WHY not??
I did get tested for the virus, not antibodies. 

I had something that required being around a large group of people and later had to get on a plane. Came back nice and negative. Haven't taken it again. Maybe I should. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 25, 2020, 09:00:08 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 25, 2020, 08:28:37 AM
I have not


I have no reason to suspect I have or had the virus

I have no reason to think I've even come in contact with anyone that has had the virus
I could waste a test, but why would I?
same here


have not gone anywhere or met anyone so why waste a test
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 25, 2020, 09:24:34 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 25, 2020, 08:21:21 AM
Curious, do we actually know what % of cases are asymptomatic?  And how does that compare to other communicable viruses?
i have done a bit of searching but can’t find much. 
 Intuitively, doesn’t it seem odd that such a high number of cases are asymptomatic?
We don't know, I don't think we could know, without testing a rep sample of the population with a reliable test.  I imagine the term includes people who have mild symptoms and they don't think it's anything.  We all have a day sometimes where we don't quite feel good.  IF the percentage was say 50%, I'd guess that's close, probably not 70%, but it's possible.  Other viruses generally produce symptoms quickly, that is one of the issues with this one.  And of course many virii don't produce symptoms in anyone ever.  I imagine we are assaulted daily with virii that simply don't infect humans, the ones that are not zoonotic.

This cytokine explosion event is fascinating to me, and unusual apparently.

As for being tested, I don't see the point, for me personally.  You can test negative and catch it on the way home from the test, for one thing.

If I were in any sort of medium or high risk environment, I would be tested.  And there is some chance of a false positive, or a screw up with the test.  I imagine "they" geared up with hastily trained test givers and folks collecting samples and tracking them, I can see ample chance of simple confusion, mislabeling, lost samples, etc.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 25, 2020, 10:03:26 AM
I have to get tested again, or I won't be allowed to get the checkup of the lower things. So test, then 3 days of quarantine before the procedure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 25, 2020, 10:07:12 AM
I haven't shown symptoms and haven't been around anyone symptomatic nor who had a positive test. So I don't see the need. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 25, 2020, 10:38:38 AM
so a tropical storm is hitting south Texas right in the middle of a hot spot

any theories on whether this is a good or bad thing for fighting the virus

the storm is not bad enough to cause a big use of public shelters

it will be interesting to see what affect it has
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on July 25, 2020, 12:12:11 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 25, 2020, 08:28:37 AM
I have not


I have no reason to suspect I have or had the virus

I have no reason to think I've even come in contact with anyone that has had the virus
I could waste a test, but why would I?
I suspect you wash your balls at the course,good man don't take any chances
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 25, 2020, 02:01:52 PM
We walked out to get a bite, about five blocks to this Mexican kinda place that moved from down the street, it's not bad.  They don't have their liquor license yet so you get a free one for dining.  We were sitting on their patio that is covered and a fairly impressive southern thunderstorm moved in.  It was kinda fun to watch.  We finally decided to brave the rain and I told the wife it would stop just as we got back to our place.

Yup.

http://tinlizzyscantina.com/ (http://tinlizzyscantina.com/)

It's not bad, nice new place, nice patio.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 25, 2020, 06:03:56 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 25, 2020, 05:23:52 PM
Tell me I'm wrong.
Tell us all how Trump having the Covid-19 numbers is going to yield honest reporting out, since he's taken them over from the CDC.  Expound on his transparency and honesty, especially concerning this topic. 
any more political crap and I will ask that you be banned
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 25, 2020, 07:52:51 PM
Your wrong.  Now take your hate somewhere else.  

it has precluded you from rational thought, and you sound like a complete ass. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 25, 2020, 08:56:13 PM
But see, while this thread/topic SHOULDN'T be political, it sadly is.  That's the reality.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 26, 2020, 12:45:12 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 22, 2020, 12:49:09 PM
In sales, relationships matter. It's easy to conduct business over a Zoom; it's hard to develop relationships.

I don't think there's truly a substitute for F2F meetings as a whole. I think that things like Zoom might reduce the overall need to have F2F meetings, but won't eliminate it entirely.
I spent M-Th the past week in an AP summer workshop conducted via Zoom.  I didn't get 1/10 as much out of it as I do in a normal face-to-face workshop.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 26, 2020, 09:11:26 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 25, 2020, 08:56:13 PM
But see, while this thread/topic SHOULDN'T be political, it sadly is.  That's the reality. 
Nope, this is incorrect.  We can discuss public health policy without people interjecting their opinions of the political drivers for such policies.

And, since I'm back, that's exactly what will begin happening once agin.

We can discuss the coronavirus, current trends, current medical ideas, and other things here.

Anyone that feels the need to "enlighten" the rest of us with your opinion on political motivations behind decisions-- you can count on your posts being deleted.  

There are other threads and other forums for that.

You're welcome.

Oh, and hi!  Hope everyone's safe and okay.  My in-laws now have the Coronas.  So, yeah.  Good to be back.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 26, 2020, 09:13:50 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 26, 2020, 09:11:26 PM
Nope, this is incorrect.  We can discuss public health policy without people interjecting their opinions of the political drivers for such policies.

And, since I'm back, that's exactly what will begin happening once agin.

We can discuss the coronavirus, current trends, current medical ideas, and other things here.

Anyone that feels the need to "enlighten" the rest of us with your opinion on political motivations behind decisions-- you can count on your posts being deleted. 

There are other threads and other forums for that.

You're welcome.

Oh, and hi!  Hope everyone's safe and okay.  My in-laws now have the Coronas.  So, yeah.  Good to be back.
so how are they doing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 26, 2020, 09:16:55 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 26, 2020, 09:13:50 PM
so how are they doing

Seem to be okay, no breathing issues so far, their symptoms seem to be more GI-related.  Such a strange virus with varying forms of attack.

Thank you very much for asking though.  I'm fearful for them, for my wife and her family, for all of us.  I'm praying they make it through with as few problems as possible.

For reference my FIL is 80 and has diabetes, and my MIL is 82 with really no other underlying conditions other than her age of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 26, 2020, 09:38:06 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 26, 2020, 09:16:55 PM
Seem to be okay, no breathing issues so far, their symptoms seem to be more GI-related.  Such a strange virus with varying forms of attack.

Thank you very much for asking though.  I'm fearful for them, for my wife and her family, for all of us.  I'm praying they make it through with as few problems as possible.

For reference my FIL is 80 and has diabetes, and my MIL is 82 with really no other underlying conditions other than her age of course.

so  I assume they felt bad and went to the doctor who gave them a test

right?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 26, 2020, 09:43:43 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 26, 2020, 09:38:06 PM
so I assume they felt bad and went to the doctor who gave them a test

right?
Yeah, started feeling bad, several days later they finally told my wife and she insisted they get tested, they did, and tested positive for the Coronas.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 26, 2020, 09:49:45 PM
wow any idea how they caught it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 26, 2020, 09:54:23 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 26, 2020, 09:49:45 PM
wow any idea how they caught it
They won't say for sure but based on the timeline I'm pretty sure it happened at church.

Did I mention several weeks ago that independent-minded old people are starting to get more ornery and less careful?  

I haven't yet told them how angry I am with them, that won't happen until they're better-- I hope and pray that I have the chance to give them a piece of my mind.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 26, 2020, 09:57:11 PM
hope they get over it


are they in Texas
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 26, 2020, 09:58:21 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 26, 2020, 09:57:11 PM
hope they get over it


are they in Texas
Yup, Austin.  My wife and I are both from Austin and our folks still live here as well, both in the same houses we grew up in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 26, 2020, 10:05:35 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 26, 2020, 09:58:21 PM
Yup, Austin.  My wife and I are both from Austin and our folks still live here as well, both in the same houses we grew up in.

my sister and brother in law both live in Austin had the virus and got over it with no problem they are in their late 60s

I hope for the best
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 26, 2020, 10:29:57 PM
Thanks.  So do I.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 26, 2020, 11:21:50 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 26, 2020, 09:16:55 PM
Seem to be okay, no breathing issues so far, their symptoms seem to be more GI-related.  Such a strange virus with varying forms of attack.

Thank you very much for asking though.  I'm fearful for them, for my wife and her family, for all of us.  I'm praying they make it through with as few problems as possible.

For reference my FIL is 80 and has diabetes, and my MIL is 82 with really no other underlying conditions other than her age of course.

Thoughts are with you and yours. I don't pray much, but I'll send one up for them. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 26, 2020, 11:48:06 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 26, 2020, 09:54:23 PM
They won't say for sure but based on the timeline I'm pretty sure it happened at church.
Ironic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on July 27, 2020, 12:56:38 AM
https://cbs12.com/amp/news/local/i-team-deaths-incorrectly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-palm-beach-county

A 60-year-old man who died from a gun shot wound to the head. A 90-year-old man who fell and died from complications of a hip fracture. A 77-year-old woman who died of Parkinson's disease. 

These are some of the deaths in Palm Beach County recently, and incorrectly, attributed to COVID-19 in medical examiner records. 

The CBS12 News I-Team uncovered several  (https://cbs12.com/news/local/uncovering-a-gun-shot-parkinsons-and-hip-fracture-as-mislabeled-covid-19-deaths)examples in Medical Examiner reports of people counted as a COVID death who did not die of COVID. 

We requested a list of all COVID-19 deaths in Palm Beach County from the Medical Examiner's office and received a spread sheet of 581 cases. 

Each person on the spreadsheet is someone who tested positive for COVID-19. In each case line, the person's cause of death and contributing causes of death are listed, if there are any. 


The I-Team found eight cases in which a person was counted as a COVID death, but did not have COVID listed as a cause of contributing cause of death. 


#INFLATEDNUMBERS
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on July 27, 2020, 01:03:54 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/p1uz8C6.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on July 27, 2020, 01:09:40 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/CWV1tdE.jpg)

(https://i.imgur.com/aWzMDtp.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 27, 2020, 07:03:20 AM
A while back, I saw the overall death count for that month in 2020 as compared with 2019 2018 etc., and it was markedly higher, which led me to think we're undercounting COVID deaths, by 10,000 or so, at the time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 27, 2020, 07:49:08 AM
https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus/covid-doesnt-care-about-your-age-georgias-virus-deaths-soar/63LQCR3QG5CCBEAISJ5XCLQHMM/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus/covid-doesnt-care-about-your-age-georgias-virus-deaths-soar/63LQCR3QG5CCBEAISJ5XCLQHMM/)

Headline claims COVID doesn't care about your age and then explains that a very low percentage of deaths is those under 50.  So, I check the paper's own reporting about deaths and the trend appears to be down, not up.

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 27, 2020, 08:22:55 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 26, 2020, 11:48:06 PM
Ironic.
Why is that ironic?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 27, 2020, 08:28:34 AM
I mentioned that my kid in Texas, 32, was quite discomfited by it, did not seek medical attention nor was counted.  He said shortness of breath was the most bothersome symptom.  He was breathing hard just getting up and walking across the room.

At that time, it was difficult to get take out food from local restaurants delivered, and he has a dog to be walked.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 27, 2020, 08:28:53 AM
Quote from: utee94 on July 27, 2020, 08:22:55 AM
Why is that ironic?
It's obvious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 27, 2020, 08:34:49 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 27, 2020, 08:28:34 AM
I mentioned that my kid in Texas, 32, was quite discomfited by it, did not seek medical attention nor was counted.  He said shortness of breath was the most bothersome symptom.  He was breathing hard just getting up and walking across the room.

At that time, it was difficult to get take out food from local restaurants delivered, and he has a dog to be walked.


Yeah so far their symptoms don't seem to involve the shortness of breath, or really even much coughing.  Fatigue, nausea, diarrhea, loss of appetite, that's what they're battling so far.  Their likely exposure was over 14 days ago now, and things don't seem to be getting any worse, so I'm hopeful they won't face any of the breathing/pneumonia type issues.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 27, 2020, 08:43:18 AM
Quote from: utee94 on July 27, 2020, 08:34:49 AM
Yeah so far their symptoms don't seem to involve the shortness of breath, or really even much coughing.  Fatigue, nausea, diarrhea, loss of appetite, that's what they're battling so far.  Their likely exposure was over 14 days ago now, and things don't seem to be getting any worse, so I'm hopeful they won't face any of the breathing/pneumonia type issues.
did you or your wife come in contact with them before the test

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 27, 2020, 08:45:49 AM
Quote from: utee94 on July 27, 2020, 08:22:55 AM
Why is that ironic?
no more ironic then folks going to the hospital for something else and catching it there

even churches need to take precautions 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 27, 2020, 09:02:42 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 26, 2020, 11:48:06 PM
Ironic.
Can't resist, huh?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 27, 2020, 09:26:01 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on July 27, 2020, 12:56:38 AM
https://cbs12.com/amp/news/local/i-team-deaths-incorrectly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-palm-beach-county

A 60-year-old man who died from a gun shot wound to the head. A 90-year-old man who fell and died from complications of a hip fracture. A 77-year-old woman who died of Parkinson's disease.

These are some of the deaths in Palm Beach County recently, and incorrectly, attributed to COVID-19 in medical examiner records.

The CBS12 News I-Team uncovered several  (https://cbs12.com/news/local/uncovering-a-gun-shot-parkinsons-and-hip-fracture-as-mislabeled-covid-19-deaths)examples in Medical Examiner reports of people counted as a COVID death who did not die of COVID.

We requested a list of all COVID-19 deaths in Palm Beach County from the Medical Examiner's office and received a spread sheet of 581 cases.

Each person on the spreadsheet is someone who tested positive for COVID-19. In each case line, the person's cause of death and contributing causes of death are listed, if there are any.


The I-Team found eight cases in which a person was counted as a COVID death, but did not have COVID listed as a cause of contributing cause of death.


#INFLATEDNUMBERS
Ok, so if COVID is not listed as the cause of death OR a contributing cause of death, on the death certificate, then it won't be counted as a cause of death in official CDC numbers.

Sounds like there are two options...

But either way it's barely over 1% of the number. That's not a horrible error rate, all things considered.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on July 27, 2020, 09:41:48 AM
Marlins cancelled their home opener today as the team has suffered a complete outbreak, 14 players/staffers have tested positive.

I don't see how baseball finishes, let alone football happens at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 27, 2020, 09:46:24 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 27, 2020, 09:02:42 AM
Can't resist, huh?
it wasn't a political question, as far as we know
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 27, 2020, 09:52:31 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 27, 2020, 09:46:24 AM
it wasn't a political question, as far as we know
what question are you talking about

320 not understand
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 27, 2020, 09:53:48 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 26, 2020, 11:48:06 PM
Ironic.
perhaps it wasn't a question, just an observation or a statement
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 27, 2020, 09:59:23 AM
It could be viewed as ironic when a person attends a church for their spiritual health and contracts an illness therefrom.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 27, 2020, 10:09:09 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 27, 2020, 09:53:48 AM
perhaps it wasn't a question, just an observation or a statement
nope not political by itself 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 27, 2020, 10:19:13 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 27, 2020, 09:59:23 AM
It could be viewed as ironic when a person attends a church for their spiritual health and contracts an illness therefrom.


It would be a stretch at best.  Spiritual and physical health are different in my way of thinking
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 27, 2020, 10:25:49 AM
If a person were an atheist, they might view it as ironic.

I suppose a rough analogy would be getting poisoned by something from a health food store, in a sense.  You go to try and improve a thing and end up getting something not good.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on July 27, 2020, 10:53:18 AM
Speaking of symptoms....

About two weeks ago I had real bad stomach pains.  Real bad, as in doubling over kind of pain.  I usually don't have these types of stomach issues so it was a little unusual.  I figured it was something I ate, which happens from time to time.  

Fast Forward a few days, like 3-4 days later and the pain is still with me.  I think I started hurting Saturday night, and the pain lasted until at least Wednesday.  First couple of days was debilitating, then was Ok but persistent for the next several days.  It was weird in that I never lost my appetite and really had no other symptoms other than stomach related.  I later read that covid is causing GI issues in a lot of people.  I'm strongly suspicious I had it, and I do know that my MIL got essentially the same thing a few days after I did (but got over it quickly).  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 27, 2020, 11:00:23 AM
Quote from: Gigem on July 27, 2020, 10:53:18 AM
Speaking of symptoms....

About two weeks ago I had real bad stomach pains.  Real bad, as in doubling over kind of pain.  I usually don't have these types of stomach issues so it was a little unusual.  I figured it was something I ate, which happens from time to time. 

Fast Forward a few days, like 3-4 days later and the pain is still with me.  I think I started hurting Saturday night, and the pain lasted until at least Wednesday.  First couple of days was debilitating, then was Ok but persistent for the next several days.  It was weird in that I never lost my appetite and really had no other symptoms other than stomach related.  I later read that covid is causing GI issues in a lot of people.  I'm strongly suspicious I had it, and I do know that my MIL got essentially the same thing a few days after I did (but got over it quickly). 
you should take your temp

if youre not running a fever Id ignore it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 27, 2020, 11:03:56 AM
you could get tested for no real good reason other than curiosity
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 27, 2020, 11:04:23 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 27, 2020, 09:53:48 AM
perhaps it wasn't a question, just an observation or a statement
A rude and generally crappy one to make, all things considered. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 27, 2020, 11:06:00 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on July 27, 2020, 11:04:23 AM
A rude and generally crappy one to make, all things considered.
now, you don't know the intent.......
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 27, 2020, 11:10:41 AM
Quote from: ELA on July 27, 2020, 09:41:48 AM
Marlins cancelled their home opener today as the team has suffered a complete outbreak, 14 players/staffers have tested positive.

I don't see how baseball finishes, let alone football happens at all.

Yeah I'm really not sure how there will be any college football at all in the Fall.  I don't really think that the players are in any more danger from practice and games, than they are from socializing in general, which is inevitably going to include house parties and lake parties and whatnot.  But they will be under a different microscope compared to the average student, and that makes all the difference.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 27, 2020, 11:13:35 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 27, 2020, 08:45:49 AM

even churches need to take precautions
Why wouldn't they?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 27, 2020, 11:15:38 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 27, 2020, 10:25:49 AM
If a person were an atheist, they might view it as ironic.

I suppose a rough analogy would be getting poisoned by something from a health food store, in a sense.  You go to try and improve a thing and end up getting something not good.


Religion wants its exceptionalism for everything...taxes, a topic of conversation, and yes, even viruses.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 27, 2020, 11:17:20 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 27, 2020, 11:13:35 AM
Why wouldn't they?
They absolutely should, and this particular church absolutely should have, and I consider it a failure on their part, as well as careless and risky behavior on the part of my inlaws.  Especially considering their own age and underlying conditions.

But that has absolutely nothing to do with church in general.

MY church hasn't met in person since March, it's entirely online, and that is the most responsible way to do it in my opinion.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 27, 2020, 11:23:32 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 27, 2020, 11:06:00 AM
now, you don't know the intent.......
I absolutely know the intent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on July 27, 2020, 11:28:37 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 27, 2020, 11:00:23 AM
you should take your temp

if youre not running a fever Id ignore it
I have a type of job where I have to have my temp taken multiple times a day, so far I've never "flunked".  

I won't get tested unless I'm deathly ill.  If I have (had) it, and am getting over it, that's my only concern.  I do wear my mask and wash hands/social distance etc.  Besides, after what my friend told me about his experience, I'm convinced that the whole testing regime is a joke.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 27, 2020, 11:50:32 AM
Quote from: Gigem on July 27, 2020, 11:28:37 AM
I have a type of job where I have to have my temp taken multiple times a day, so far I've never "flunked". 

I won't get tested unless I'm deathly ill.  If I have (had) it, and am getting over it, that's my only concern.  I do wear my mask and wash hands/social distance etc.  Besides, after what my friend told me about his experience, I'm convinced that the whole testing regime is a joke. 
You should get the serology test if you truly believe you had/have it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on July 27, 2020, 11:53:31 AM
https://twitter.com/itswilliamstone/status/1287333496130854913?s=20
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 27, 2020, 11:54:55 AM
Asshat.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on July 27, 2020, 12:31:13 PM
Didn’t his wife just die?

He’s got so much money, if he caught anything he’d be fine.

Dude lives in the middle of nowhere in central Florida in a mansion that has an air hanger attached to it with jumbo 747 jets and he’s got his own runway to take off and land. #Baller.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 27, 2020, 12:33:36 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on July 27, 2020, 12:31:13 PM
Didn’t his wife just die?
Which one of the 76 he's had?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on July 27, 2020, 12:36:01 PM
I think the Face/Off joke was missed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 27, 2020, 12:37:02 PM
Quote from: ELA on July 27, 2020, 12:36:01 PM
I think the Face/Off joke was missed
Yep. It’s a hell of a joke. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 27, 2020, 12:37:32 PM
Kelly Preston.  She was a looker.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 27, 2020, 12:48:22 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 27, 2020, 12:37:32 PM
Kelly Preston.  She was a looker.


she was in one of the better baseball movies For the Love of the Game

Loved the catcher in that one
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 27, 2020, 12:49:48 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on July 27, 2020, 12:37:02 PM
Yep. It’s a hell of a joke.
Heh. Got it now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 27, 2020, 03:18:10 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 27, 2020, 12:48:22 PM
she was in one of the better baseball movies For the Love of the Game

Loved the catcher in that one
She was at her best in Twins.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 27, 2020, 03:27:16 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 27, 2020, 03:18:10 PM
She was at her best in Twins.
word

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 27, 2020, 03:50:32 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 27, 2020, 11:17:20 AM
They absolutely should, and this particular church absolutely should have, and I consider it a failure on their part, as well as careless and risky behavior on the part of my inlaws.  Especially considering their own age and underlying conditions.

But that has absolutely nothing to do with church in general.

MY church hasn't met in person since March, it's entirely online, and that is the most responsible way to do it in my opinion. 
perhaps this particular church took good precautions, aside from not allowing folks inside.
Perhaps the inlaws weren't following precautions encouraged by the church or perhaps the contact was made someplace else entirely
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 27, 2020, 04:34:38 PM
I use door dash a lot and I worry that one time they will deliver something in addition to the food
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 27, 2020, 04:39:17 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 27, 2020, 04:34:38 PM
I use door dash a lot and I worry that one time they will deliver something in addition to the food
I don't think this is very likely at all, based on what the CDC and other experts are saying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 27, 2020, 04:40:26 PM
I don't trust the CDC or "other" experts
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 27, 2020, 04:53:04 PM
Even Fauci has mentioned the unlikelihood of such a transmission. So long as what you order is hot, I don't think there is any concern. I'd probably be hesitant to order a salad or something.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 27, 2020, 05:20:05 PM
It's nice to read some positive news.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/27/coronavirus-outbreak-show-signs-of-slowing-in-arizona-texas-and-florida.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/27/coronavirus-outbreak-show-signs-of-slowing-in-arizona-texas-and-florida.html)


Wisconsin is doing well too, from what I can gather. It's has been full-on open since May 14, but I see most of the businesses/restaurants still practicing distancing and mask-wearing.

That's going to be my home for 2 months, before the move to Florida. 

I no longer pay much attention to Illinois, but cases are on an uptick since the partial reopening. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on July 27, 2020, 07:40:39 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 27, 2020, 11:50:32 AM
You should get the serology test if you truly believe you had/have it.
I thought about it, but what good would it do?  They claim you can get it again, so you’d still be vulnerable. Plus, after hearing about all the testing snafus I really don’t trust the test to be accurate. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 27, 2020, 09:10:28 PM
went to the grocery tonight after a burger at Red Robin with my daughter

the grocery out masks and hand sanitizer on a folding table in the entry - sign said, "It's your choice"

about 80% of folks were wearing masks, big difference from the last time I was in there

80% ground beef was on sale for $1.98/lb

boneless pork loin $1.58/lb - I had them slice it into chops - 2 to a package
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on July 28, 2020, 01:13:34 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 27, 2020, 04:40:26 PM
I don't trust the CDC or "other" experts
Do you see a physician with an 8th grade education, instead of a doctor with 20-years education plus internships and residencies?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on July 28, 2020, 01:18:19 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 27, 2020, 09:10:28 PM
went to the grocery tonight after a burger at Red Robin with my daughter

the grocery out masks and hand sanitizer on a folding table in the entry - sign said, "It's your choice"

about 80% of folks were wearing masks, big difference from the last time I was in there

80% ground beef was on sale for $1.98/lb

boneless pork loin $1.58/lb - I had them slice it into chops - 2 to a package
This is incredible on several accounts. Prices. What grocery chain does this? The Ice Cream Capitol of the world has a Red Robin? I love Red Robin burgers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on July 28, 2020, 01:26:22 AM
Quote from: Gigem on July 27, 2020, 07:40:39 PM
I thought about it, but what good would it do?  They claim you can get it again, so you’d still be vulnerable. Plus, after hearing about all the testing snafus I really don’t trust the test to be accurate.


I spoke to a friend who is serving as a traveling nurse in Manhattan. She has not seen anyone become re-infected. However she has seen nurses on social media share that they have seen re-infection, so I think it is possible, but over a six month time-frame very unlikely.

She is about 38-years old. I watched her grow up. She developed COVID-19 in Manhattan. Was sick one-week, continued to quarantine for 2-weeks, and fully recovered. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on July 28, 2020, 01:26:39 AM
not bad  in Quick Change either with that jackass Murray. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on July 28, 2020, 01:28:23 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 27, 2020, 05:20:05 PM


That's going to be my home for 2 months, before the move to Florida.


Good luck! Go Seminoles!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 28, 2020, 05:58:04 AM
Georgia MAY be leveling off, I emphasize MAY.  I hope so.  It was looking like it might grow to the sky.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 07:56:55 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/YsB5SMz.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Temp430 on July 28, 2020, 09:20:31 AM
The virus is still killing people.  Protect the nursing homes, wear a mask, wash your hands, open the schools, and pray for a vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 28, 2020, 09:23:40 AM
The vaccine news has been positive of late in early trials.  Third phase about to begin, and then possible approval, availability first of the year hopefully.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 09:49:57 AM
Ive written off this football season

Its next year Im concerned about
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 28, 2020, 09:55:44 AM
Yup I think a college football season at this point is... unlikely.

NFL might manage through, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 28, 2020, 10:09:02 AM
At one point I was worried how I was going to get BTN, since I'm cancelling Xfinity tomorrow. I was thinking I'd need to subscribe, since I won't have any cable account, but I'm no longer worried. There will be no games to watch.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on July 28, 2020, 10:19:35 AM
If MLB can't get a hold of it (and they have plenty of $$$$$ worth of resources and motivation to get a hold of it), then the NFL and colleges sure aren't. 

That's why the Mrs. and I are looking at other things for fall weekends. 

It's one thing to come square with no football now. It's something entirely different for September to come and go without a down of football being played.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 10:26:17 AM
Quote from: Temp430 on July 28, 2020, 09:20:31 AM
 and pray for a vaccine.
I'm guessing this oxymoron is lost on you....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 28, 2020, 10:28:21 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on July 28, 2020, 10:19:35 AM
If MLB can't get a hold of it (and they have plenty of $$$$$ worth of resources and motivation to get a hold of it), then the NFL and colleges sure aren't.

That's why the Mrs. and I are looking at other things for fall weekends.

It's one thing to come square with no football now. It's something entirely different for September to come and go without a down of football being played.
MLB is attempting to travel. That's not going to work.

NHL is going full bubble, as the EPL did.  The EPL is turning up on average under 1 case per 1800 tests on a weekly basis, going back about two months.  They completed their season this past weekend.

It can be done for the NFL, if the league is willing to make the appropriate changes that have proven effective for other professional sports around the globe.  

It definitely won't work for college though, there are just way too many outside variables.  Like I said before, I think a college athlete is more likely to catch the virus from the social situations OUTSIDE the locker room, compared to any on-field activities including practice, workouts, and games.  But that won't matter, because there will be a MUCH more powerful microscope applied to athletes, than to average students on-campus.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 10:51:50 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 10:26:17 AM
I'm guessing this oxymoron is lost on you....
ok I'll bite what kind of anti religion point are you making
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on July 28, 2020, 10:53:19 AM
This coronavirus has cost us so much money it’s a joke. We had 2 really nice projects in the bag ready to sign that are put on hold til 2021, and another that was looking very good and we we’re suppose to meet the owners in late March but they aren’t coming to South FL any time soon because of the coronavirus. One was a huge job, a teardown of an existing home right on the beach in Ft Lauderdale to build a brand new 6,000+ sq ft. state of the art modern design home with elevators and everything else you can imagine. Another was a teardown of an existing home in Delray Beach right on the intercostal to build the same type of modern style home although this one was around 4,500 sq ft. And then we had a condo remodel in Palm Beach that this rich fuck bought for $2.7 million sight unseen, and his budget for the renovation was $600 a sq ft. The condo is nearly 3,000 sq ft. All put on hold til 2021, and two of them possibly even lost. Only sure thing is the Delray home, that is a prior client and friend, that one is a lock.

If I could fly a stealth fighter stocked with 20 nukes over China and drop all them nukes on those sons of bitches I would and not even think twice about it. Bastards. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 10:58:40 AM
latest Moderna vaccine news

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-trial-phase-3-moderna-30000-volunteers/ (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-trial-phase-3-moderna-30000-volunteers/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on July 28, 2020, 11:18:28 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 10:26:17 AM
I'm guessing this oxymoron is lost on you....
Are you a complete @ss or do you just play one on this site?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 11:58:52 AM
Quote from: Riffraft on July 28, 2020, 11:18:28 AM
Are you a complete @ss or do you just play one on this site?
It is all he knows.  Attack attack  attack. 

and if your opinion differs from his, you are an idiot and need to be silenced. Sounds familiar. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 12:33:09 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 11:58:52 AM
It is all he knows.  Attack attack  attack.

and if your opinion differs from his, you are an idiot and need to be silenced. Sounds familiar.
He reminds me of a stray dog that visits our neighborhood every now and then

he's basically friendly but has the habit of leaving a dog turd right in the middle of my lawn

he just casually strolls over drops his present and is off again to other things

ol orangie just drops his load and is gone 

makes one wonder just what his goal is

anyway I hope he gets adopted so he stops pooping in my yard 

orangie is there anyone who will adopt you and save us
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 28, 2020, 12:51:24 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on July 28, 2020, 10:53:19 AM

If I could fly a stealth fighter stocked with 20 nukes over China and drop all them nukes on those sons of bitches I would and not even think twice about it. Bastards.
I feel like there has to be a term for this sort of thing, this fantasy of violence that would feel good, which people verbalize.

I mean, 20 nukes would almost assuredly incinerate millions of people, maybe hundreds of thousands if aimed poorly. Give millions more cancer. And all but the smallest handful wouldn't have had a thing to do with this. If you actually wouldn't think twice about it, that would make you a psychopath beyond measure. But you probably would think twice about it, and chances are not do it at all. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 28, 2020, 01:19:10 PM
I think the 20 nukes is just frustration speaking.  And of course no stealth fighter could carry 20 nukes anyway.  A B2 might carry 8, depending.  Each would have an explosive yield about 10x that of Nagasaki, and with targeting could kill a million people on detonation, given city densities now, and perhaps that many more later.

So, you kill off 40 million Chinese, none of whom had anything to do with this, and their population drops from 1.393 billion to, get this, 1.353 billion.

And they would counter attack of course.  And we would counter that.  etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 28, 2020, 01:42:28 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 28, 2020, 01:19:10 PM
I think the 20 nukes is just frustration speaking.  And of course no stealth fighter could carry 20 nukes anyway.  A B2 might carry 8, depending.  Each would have an explosive yield about 10x that of Nagasaki, and with targeting could kill a million people on detonation, given city densities now, and perhaps that many more later.

So, you kill off 40 million Chinese, none of whom had anything to do with this, and their population drops from 1.393 billion to, get this, 1.353 billion.

And they would counter attack of course.  And we would counter that.  etc.
It's too late for regime change with China. They have been enabled for far too long, but that's not a topic for here.

But, F China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on July 28, 2020, 01:58:51 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on July 28, 2020, 11:18:28 AM
Are you a complete @ss or do you just play one on this site?
He gets into online arguments to have someone to talk to
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 28, 2020, 02:20:36 PM
Quote from: Hawkinole on July 28, 2020, 01:18:19 AM
This is incredible on several accounts. Prices. What grocery chain does this? The Ice Cream Capitol of the world has a Red Robin? I love Red Robin burgers.
the ice cream capitol of the world is 20-30 north of Sewer City - no Red Robin there, but they have the best steak house in the midwest.

Archie's Waeside

https://www.archieswaeside.com/home (https://www.archieswaeside.com/home)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 28, 2020, 02:22:24 PM
Quote from: Hawkinole on July 28, 2020, 01:13:34 AM
Do you see a physician with an 8th grade education, instead of a doctor with 20-years education plus internships and residencies?
I wouldn't trust the dude with an 8th grade education, but I'd be very skeptical of the doc with years of schooling if he had an agenda.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 28, 2020, 02:27:59 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 28, 2020, 02:22:24 PM
I wouldn't trust the dude with an 8th grade education, but I'd be very skeptical of the doc with years of schooling if he had an agenda.
Agendas are funny. 

if folks had as many as other folks thought they had, well, they'd be doing a whole lot of extra stuff. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 28, 2020, 02:28:29 PM
targeting the Communist party leaders in China with nukes might at least wipeout the vile leadership and give another less evil group of leadership to emerge
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 28, 2020, 02:29:36 PM
I don't think the politicians and the medias agendas are as funny as you do
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 28, 2020, 02:30:23 PM
OK guys, getting off base here.  The 2020 thread awaits your continued discussion of this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on July 28, 2020, 02:37:47 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 28, 2020, 02:30:23 PM
OK guys, getting off base here.  
Take it to the Beisbol thread - thank you for your support
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 28, 2020, 02:47:34 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on July 28, 2020, 02:37:47 PM
Take it to the Beisbol thread - thank you for your support
I was actually talking about military bases-- keeping it topical and all... :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 28, 2020, 02:47:51 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 28, 2020, 02:30:23 PM
OK guys, getting off base here.  The 2020 thread awaits your continued discussion of this.
nukes are off base?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 28, 2020, 02:48:14 PM
Just deleted a post.  Move it to 2020.  

Thank You For Your Support.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 28, 2020, 05:18:27 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 28, 2020, 02:48:14 PM
Just deleted a post.  Move it to 2020. 

Thank You For Your Support.
Don't know what it said, but somehow still cool with it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 28, 2020, 05:34:36 PM
primary care physician in Houston, Texas, Dr. Stella Immanuel, spoke in front of the steps of the U.S. Supreme Court in Washington, D.C. on Monday, sharing her experience treating patients infected with the novel coronavirus, saying she’s not lost one and attributes that to the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine.

“I actually went to medical school in West Africa, in Nigeria where I took care of malaria patients, treated them with hydroxychloroquine and stuff like that, so I’m actually used to these medications,” Dr. Immanuel said. “I’m here because I have personally treated over 350 patients with COVID. Patients that have diabetes, patients that have high blood pressure, patients that have asthma, all people. I think my oldest patient is 92, 87-year-olds. And the result has been the same: put them on hydroxychloroquine, I put them on zinc, I put them on Zithromax, and they are all well.”

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1287833184407822336
She continued, “For the past few months, I’ve taken care of over 350 patients. We’ve not lost one. Not a diabetic, not somebody with high blood pressure, not somebody with asthma, not an old person. We’eve not lost one patient. And, on top of that, I’ve put myself, my staff, and many doctors that I know on hydroxychloroquine for prevention because by the very mechanism of action, it works early…”

Dr. Immanuel’s practice treats 10-15 COVID patients each day, typically giving them breathing treatments, she said. The doctors, only wearing surgical masks, have avoided contracting the virus with the proactive measures of taking hydroxychloroquine for prevention.


https://saraacarter.com/doctor-says-shes-treated-350-covid-patients-with-hydroxychloroquine-and-not-lost-one/?fbclid=IwAR25BshcRPW41wq-_CacZlrxucNnEowENLDltE9io_A2xKPZI_pdGG8wP9E (https://saraacarter.com/doctor-says-shes-treated-350-covid-patients-with-hydroxychloroquine-and-not-lost-one/?fbclid=IwAR25BshcRPW41wq-_CacZlrxucNnEowENLDltE9io_A2xKPZI_pdGG8wP9E)

UPDATE: Other media outlets are covering this story and reporting on discrepancies with Dr. Immanuel’s past medical claims. For example, the Daily Beast reports, “She has often claimed that gynecological problems like cysts and endometriosis are in fact caused by people having sex in their dreams with demons and witches. She alleges alien DNA is currently used in medical treatments, and that scientists are cooking up a vaccine to prevent people from being religious.”

This reporter has reached out to Dr. Immanuel for comment on her claims and practice. We will update this story when there is a response.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 05:52:54 PM
youtube and twitter have removed this video and cut off anybody retweeting it


getting closer to communism every day


Pravda would be jealous
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on July 28, 2020, 06:02:58 PM


Cross conference moderation? 

Now I have seen everything. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 06:15:56 PM
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on July 28, 2020, 06:02:58 PM

Cross conference moderation?

Now I have seen everything.


its armageddon I tell ya
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 28, 2020, 06:17:01 PM
Dogs and cats living together.  Mass hysteria.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 28, 2020, 06:48:09 PM
I'm not sure that testimony should be more credible than the various clinicals run with this drug that have not shown a benefit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 07:04:29 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 28, 2020, 06:48:09 PM
I'm not sure that testimony should be more credible than the various clinicals run with this drug that have not shown a benefit.
It is a mystery

why would this doctor and many others keep posting its benefits

theres no money here so whats the motive

one side keeps saying the other is trying to hide the favorable affects so the country will remain in a shut down

the other side says this drug will kill you so dont take it

I have no idea but if we find out later that this drug could have saved thousands of lives it will be huge burden to bare for one of the two sides
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on July 28, 2020, 07:19:43 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 28, 2020, 05:34:36 PM
 put them on hydroxychloroquine, I put them on zinc, I put them on Zithromax, and they are all well.”
Cindy's been railing about this stuff for quite some time and evidently it gets deleted off of Twatter,Face Space and other cyber log jams.I just use Purell for hands and Jim Beam for anything inhaled
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 28, 2020, 07:31:16 PM
why can't there simply be a study done on hydroxychloroquine that can be deemed credible?

perhaps a credible group of doctors or scientists from multiple countries?

instead of fringe docs and "experts"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 07:34:15 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on July 28, 2020, 07:19:43 PM
Cindy's been railing about this stuff for quite some time and evidently it gets deleted off of Twatter,Face Space and other cyber log jams.I just use Purell for hands and Jim Beam for anything inhaled
Not sure what your point is but youre right anyone coming out for this drug is immediately censored from social media and made fun of by MSM

all Im saying is that we better not find out later that we should have been using this drug or there will be hell to pay for certain folks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 28, 2020, 07:44:33 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 07:34:15 PM
Not sure what your point is but youre right anyone coming out for this drug is immediately censored from social media and made fun of by MSM

all Im saying is that we better not find out later that we should have been using this drug or there will be hell to pay for certain folks
Lots of real, credible doctors in the real world, are using it anyway.  And they're getting the same results that this particular woman in the clip claims she's getting.  I know of two right here in Austin.

There's certainly no consensus in the medical community.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on July 28, 2020, 07:48:23 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 07:34:15 PM
Not sure what your point is 
She's for it and believes a lot of things are being sensored.I on the other hand haven't the foggiest
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 28, 2020, 07:56:25 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 10:26:17 AM
I'm guessing this oxymoron is lost on you....
It's only an oxymoron from an atheist's perspective.
There are other perspectives.
I'm reminded of something W.F. Buckley said.
"_______s always claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 28, 2020, 08:00:18 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 28, 2020, 05:34:36 PM
primary care physician in Houston, Texas, Dr. Stella Immanuel, spoke in front of the steps of the U.S. Supreme Court in Washington, D.C. on Monday, sharing her experience treating patients infected with the novel coronavirus, saying she’s not lost one and attributes that to the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine.

“I actually went to medical school in West Africa, in Nigeria where I took care of malaria patients, treated them with hydroxychloroquine and stuff like that, so I’m actually used to these medications,” Dr. Immanuel said. “I’m here because I have personally treated over 350 patients with COVID. Patients that have diabetes, patients that have high blood pressure, patients that have asthma, all people. I think my oldest patient is 92, 87-year-olds. And the result has been the same: put them on hydroxychloroquine, I put them on zinc, I put them on Zithromax, and they are all well.”

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1287833184407822336
She continued, “For the past few months, I’ve taken care of over 350 patients. We’ve not lost one. Not a diabetic, not somebody with high blood pressure, not somebody with asthma, not an old person. We’eve not lost one patient. And, on top of that, I’ve put myself, my staff, and many doctors that I know on hydroxychloroquine for prevention because by the very mechanism of action, it works early…”

Dr. Immanuel’s practice treats 10-15 COVID patients each day, typically giving them breathing treatments, she said. The doctors, only wearing surgical masks, have avoided contracting the virus with the proactive measures of taking hydroxychloroquine for prevention.


https://saraacarter.com/doctor-says-shes-treated-350-covid-patients-with-hydroxychloroquine-and-not-lost-one/?fbclid=IwAR25BshcRPW41wq-_CacZlrxucNnEowENLDltE9io_A2xKPZI_pdGG8wP9E (https://saraacarter.com/doctor-says-shes-treated-350-covid-patients-with-hydroxychloroquine-and-not-lost-one/?fbclid=IwAR25BshcRPW41wq-_CacZlrxucNnEowENLDltE9io_A2xKPZI_pdGG8wP9E)

UPDATE: Other media outlets are covering this story and reporting on discrepancies with Dr. Immanuel’s past medical claims. For example, the Daily Beast reports, “She has often claimed that gynecological problems like cysts and endometriosis are in fact caused by people having sex in their dreams with demons and witches. She alleges alien DNA is currently used in medical treatments, and that scientists are cooking up a vaccine to prevent people from being religious.”

This reporter has reached out to Dr. Immanuel for comment on her claims and practice. We will update this story when there is a response.
A doctor who talks in terms of "and stuff like that" when referring to medications does not have my full confidence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 08:01:26 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 28, 2020, 07:56:25 PM
It's only an oxymoron from an atheist's perspective.
There are other perspectives.
I'm reminded of something W.F. Buckley said.
"_______s always claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views.”
careful CW utee is on patrol

and because he deleted previous posts I will tell you that orange man has already been taken to task over this
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 28, 2020, 08:02:35 PM
Noted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 08:03:32 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 28, 2020, 08:00:18 PM
A doctor who talks in terms of "and stuff like that" when referring to medications does not have my full confidence.
actually thats one of the reasons I kinda like her and by the way she probably chooses her words like she does because her English needs work
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 08:07:28 PM
Hospitalizations in Texas continue trending down

they are at the level reached on July 7th 


lets hope this continues
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 28, 2020, 08:11:27 PM
Our school opening has been (or maybe is likely to be) postponed from August 13th to the 17th.

We'll probably be on a schedule that only has about half the students at school at any given time.

Even so, I don't see how we go a month without having to shut down and go to 100% distance-learning.  Our case numbers and death numbers (in Oklahoma) are continuing to rise at exactly the wrong time.  Over the last 7 or 8 days, we've got from having 400-500 new cases per day to 1200-1500.  We've gone from having single-digit daily deaths to double-digits.

When one student comes up positive, the contact-tracing is going to implicate nearly the whole school.  Every classmate and every teacher that the student has.  Every kid that the infected kid sat near at lunchtime.  Plus all the people that they have come in contact with.

We would have to shut down and stay shut down for who knows how long.

OKC schools will start the year with distance-learning.  The Tulsa Public Schools superintendent has recommended the same policy.

The affluent, mostly white suburb of Owasso was going to start the school without even a policy on wearing masks.  I think that they have reconsidered, or are reconsidering.  The affluent, mostly white suburb of Broken Arrow I think is resistant to masks.  One of the state school board members who voted against a mandatory mask policy was from B.A.  I imagine that he is reflecting the majority opinion in his community.  I know there's resistance in the affluent, mostly white suburb of Bixby to masks.

The affluent mostly-white suburbs seem to be the places most unwilling to require masks and most determined to open up ASAP.

I'm not particularly afraid for myself, but I don't want to bring it home to my wife.  With all her autoimmune problems, I don't think she'd do well at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 08:39:04 PM
so CW I assume youre not in favor of the schools opening
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 28, 2020, 08:40:05 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 08:03:32 PM
actually thats one of the reasons I kinda like her and by the way she probably chooses her words like she does because her English needs work
Dr. Stella Immanuel also believes that sexual visitations by demons and alien DNA are at the root of Americans’ common health concerns (https://www.thedailybeast.com/stella-immanuel-trumps-new-covid-doctor-believes-in-alien-dna-demon-sperm-and-hydroxychloroquine).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 28, 2020, 08:42:47 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 08:39:04 PM
so CW I assume youre not in favor of the schools opening
I think it varies by place.
But at the time when both infections and deaths--in Oklahoma--are soaring to record highs, it seems unlikely that we--in Oklahoma--will be able to stay open very long.
Maybe pushing back opening day by a month would be a good idea.  There's nothing magical about opening school in mid-August.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 08:48:51 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 28, 2020, 08:40:05 PM
Dr. Stella Immanuel also believes that sexual visitations by demons and alien DNA are at the root of Americans’ common health concerns (https://www.thedailybeast.com/stella-immanuel-trumps-new-covid-doctor-believes-in-alien-dna-demon-sperm-and-hydroxychloroquine).
yep I read this

you know I am a CPA and believe in ghosts and UFOs 

but Im still a damn good CPA
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 28, 2020, 08:50:37 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 08:48:51 PM
yep I read this

you know I am a CPA and believe in ghosts and UFOs

but Im still a damn good CPA
Believing in ghosts doesn't interfere with your analysis of financial records.
Believing in demon seed and alien DNA does interfere with a doctor's ability to analyze a pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 08:53:47 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 28, 2020, 08:50:37 PM
Believing in ghosts doesn't interfere with your analysis of financial records.
Believing in demon seed and alien DNA does interfere with a doctor's ability to analyze a pandemic.
does it?

how so?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 08:55:35 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 28, 2020, 08:40:05 PM
Dr. Stella Immanuel also believes that sexual visitations by demons and alien DNA are at the root of Americans’ common health concerns (https://www.thedailybeast.com/stella-immanuel-trumps-new-covid-doctor-believes-in-alien-dna-demon-sperm-and-hydroxychloroquine).
Regardless there were other credible doctors in that video.  

you formed an opinion as you should, that is your right.  But that’s the point.

Google which owns YouTube, Twitter and Facebook do not have the right to censor that video off of the Internet which is exactly what they have now done.  

If you have the power of censorship, and actively exercise it  which they have clearly been doing brazenly for months and months now, then you need to be open to liability.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 08:56:05 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 28, 2020, 07:56:25 PM
It's only an oxymoron from an atheist's perspective.
There are other perspectives.
I'm reminded of something W.F. Buckley said.
"_______s always claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views.”
An irrational view is irrational, no matter how many people believe it.  And no, I'm not being insulting, I'm using the word 'irrational' correctly and matter-of-factly.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 08:57:38 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 08:55:35 PM
Regardless there were other credible doctors in that video. 

you formed an opinion as you should, that is your right.  But that’s the point.

Google which owns YouTube, Twitter and Facebook do not have the right to censor that video off of the Internet which is exactly what they have now done. 

If you have the power of censorship, and actively exercise it  which they have clearly been doing brazenly for months and months now, then you need to be open to liability.
This is so completely backwards.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 08:59:24 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 08:55:35 PM
Regardless there were other credible doctors in that video. 

you formed an opinion as you should, that is your right.  But that’s the point.

Google which owns YouTube, Twitter and Facebook do not have the right to censor that video off of the Internet which is exactly what they have now done. 

If you have the power of censorship, and actively exercise it  which they have clearly been doing brazenly for months and months now, then you need to be open to liability.
it would be one thing if social media treated everyone equally but that is not the case

they better hope this drug  has no virus treatment power or they are gonna look awful silly
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 09:00:42 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 12:33:09 PM
He reminds me of a stray dog that visits our neighborhood every now and then

he's basically friendly but has the habit of leaving a dog turd right in the middle of my lawn

he just casually strolls over drops his present and is off again to other things

ol orangie just drops his load and is gone

makes one wonder just what his goal is

anyway I hope he gets adopted so he stops pooping in my yard

orangie is there anyone who will adopt you and save us
All this pissing about an actual (and funny) oxymoron about praying for scientists to do well.  

So touchy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 09:00:51 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 28, 2020, 08:50:37 PM
Believing in ghosts doesn't interfere with your analysis of financial records.
Believing in demon seed and alien DNA does interfere with a doctor's ability to analyze a pandemic.
CW this woman may be full of crap but she isnt the only doctor saying things like this
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 09:01:05 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 08:57:38 PM
This is so completely backwards. 
So says the liberal snowflake. 

it is exactly right- censorship has no place. 

you do not have the right to decide what is hate speech or what is misinformation 



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 09:01:27 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 09:00:42 PM
All this pissing about an actual (and funny) oxymoron about praying for scientists to do well. 

So touchy.
get off my lawn scat
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 09:01:53 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 08:59:24 PM
it would be one thing if social media treated everyone equally but that is not the case

they better hope this drug  has no virus treatment power or they are gonna look awful silly
Everyone isn't equal.  
Pseudo-science isn't science.
Hope isn't a strategy.

You guys are like a 10 year old pitching a fit because you're not allowed to drive a tank.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 09:02:29 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 09:01:05 PM
So says the liberal snowflake.

it is exactly right- censorship has no place.

you do not have the right to decide what is hate speech or what is misinformation




In fact 90% of what you post- I consider misinformation or hate speech. See above for examples. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 09:02:45 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 09:01:05 PM
So says the liberal snowflake.

it is exactly right- censorship has no place.

you do not have the right to decide what is hate speech or what is misinformation




Companies do, on their platforms.  If this was about almost anything else, you'd be advocating for the other side of the argument.  Bizarre.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 09:03:18 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 09:01:53 PM
Everyone isn't equal. 
Pseudo-science isn't science.
Hope isn't a strategy.

You guys are like a 10 year old pitching a fit because you're not allowed to drive a tank.
What you fail to understand is your self anointed elite know it all self designation is in your fucking head. Nobody here agrees with you you don’t have the right to tell people what to think
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 09:03:39 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 09:02:29 PM
In fact 90% of what you post- I consider misinformation or hate speech. See above for examples.
I assume you're being honest here, and I'm sort of put off that it isn't 100%.  You're on another woo-planet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 09:04:20 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 09:02:45 PM
Companies do, on their platforms.  If this was about almost anything else, you'd be advocating for the other side of the argument.  Bizarre.
100% wrong again. Assuming you know what people would think in hypotheticals.

It may shock you to find out that millions and millions of Americans absolutely believe in free speech. Not censored to the liberal side of things which is what you want but actual free speech
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 09:04:51 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 09:03:18 PM
What you fail to understand is your self anointed elite know it all self designation is in your fucking head. Nobody here agrees with you you don’t have the right to tell people what to think
Telling someone what they think is incorrect is different than telling them what to think.  If I suggest to you to try to be more rational, 
a)  how dare I, and
b)  yes, it's a waste of my time, lol
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 09:05:20 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 09:03:39 PM
I assume you're being honest here, and I'm sort of put off that it isn't 100%.  You're on another woo-planet.
Take a poll and see how many people on this site think you’re living in reality? I’ll tell you is I couldn’t live near or around people who think the way you do because it’s absolutely reprehensible, disgusting, backwards, and oppressive. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 09:06:05 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 09:04:20 PM
100% wrong again. Assuming you know what people would think in hypotheticals.

It may shock you to find out that millions and millions of Americans absolutely believe in free speech. Not censored to the liberal side of things which is what you want but actual free speech
So you believed in Kaepernick's kneeling, BLM's protesting, et al?  MMMMMMMMMkay.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 09:06:20 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 09:04:51 PM
Telling someone what they think is incorrect is different than telling them what to think.  If I suggest to you to try to be more rational,
a)  how dare I, and
b)  yes, it's a waste of my time, lol
Rational is my DNA.  Intolerance of any opinion is yours.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 09:06:50 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 09:06:05 PM
So you believed in Kaepernick's kneeling, BLM's protesting, et al?  MMMMMMMMMkay.
Find an example of where I posted something to the contrary. Go ahead dip shit, I’ll wait
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 09:07:04 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 09:05:20 PM
Take a poll and see how many people on this site think you’re living in reality? I’ll tell you is I couldn’t live near or around people who think the way you do because it’s absolutely reprehensible, disgusting, backwards, and oppressive.
LMAO, this is THE most priceless post I've read in a long time.  I want to frame it.  The irony knows no bounds!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 09:08:24 PM
Orange do your handlers know your loose

you are terrorizing the village
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 09:08:57 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 09:06:05 PM
So you believed in Kaepernick's kneeling, BLM's protesting, et al?  MMMMMMMMMkay.
And please don’t come back here with anything related to the riots. I don’t support that never have and never will.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 09:10:01 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 09:07:04 PM
LMAO, this is THE most priceless post I've read in a long time.  I want to frame it.  The irony knows no bounds!
Of course it is.  Think deeper. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 09:10:11 PM
My favorite was when HB suggested the number of people on 'his side' has anything to do with what's actually true.  
That was hot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 09:16:29 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 09:10:11 PM
My favorite was when HB suggested the number of people on 'his side' has anything to do with what's actually true. 
That was hot.
Well when you constantly accuse those with a different opinion than you of being crazy/stupid/detached from reality etc, you just need to be reminded that your opinion is not universally shared, or even viewed as rational.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 09:19:38 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 09:10:11 PM
My favorite was when HB suggested the number of people on 'his side' has anything to do with what's actually true. 
That was hot.
By the way- this has nothing to do with sides. It is about freedom of expression without fear of being persecuted or ridiculed.

what you are now known for is, since you can’t sensor other opinions you have to insult others.

I can play by your rules- it seems it is all you know. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 09:29:23 PM
this conversation reminds me of a SNL routine

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c91XUyg9iWM (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c91XUyg9iWM)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 28, 2020, 09:53:19 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 07:04:29 PM
It is a mystery

why would this doctor and many others keep posting its benefits

theres no money here so whats the motive

one side keeps saying the other is trying to hide the favorable affects so the country will remain in a shut down

the other side says this drug will kill you so dont take it

I have no idea but if we find out later that this drug could have saved thousands of lives it will be huge burden to bare for one of the two sides
The motive would be attention and notoriety. A lot of family medicine can be word of mouth. I've lived in a town for five years, and when I'm looking for a new regular doctor, I'm still gonna just ask someone I think might have a good knowledge base. 

So if you get on the local news for having the coronavirus cure, you're gonna be the most known doctor in wherever it is in Texas. And that will mean lots of benefits (plus some folks just plain enjoy the attention).

I don't know if it works and at least read that there are nebulous side affects. Obviously most people don't have serious side affects, otherwise it wouldn't be deemed safe at all. And I don't know the medical history of how fast it take people to adopt things. Maybe it's full of moments when non-reaserch doctors stumble on things that work and it takes years to get them fully accepted. But I have to assume thousands of doctors aren't withholding this magic cure because they just hate some politicians (especially considering the side whose medical law they lamented a good bit). If the stuff was really a cure-all some hospitals would be running through patients, curing them by the bucketload. Some other doctor would find out and it would propagate. 

You can ask why these smattering of doctors keeps saying these things (though today's seems particularly flamboyant in style), but the flip side question is if these docs with strip mall clinics have it all figured out, how come huge hospital systems haven't and aren't leveraging it? I can promise there are plenty of doctors and hospital admins on one of those sides. And there have to be some areas that wouldn't object to the stuff. So if it's so magical, I can't see why huge swaths of Drs. aren't all in. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 28, 2020, 09:58:53 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 08:55:35 PM
Regardless there were other credible doctors in that video. 

you formed an opinion as you should, that is your right.  But that’s the point.

Google which owns YouTube, Twitter and Facebook do not have the right to censor that video off of the Internet which is exactly what they have now done. 

If you have the power of censorship, and actively exercise it  which they have clearly been doing brazenly for months and months now, then you need to be open to liability.
They actually do have the right to not have it on their platforms. That's literally the right they have. 

Now, I suppose you could say the government should force a private entity to host speech it does not want to. That is well and good, though it sends us down a troubling rabbit hole if someone you don't like gets the keys to the car. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 10:08:05 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on July 28, 2020, 09:53:19 PM
The motive would be attention and notoriety. A lot of family medicine can be word of mouth. I've lived in a town for five years, and when I'm looking for a new regular doctor, I'm still gonna just ask someone I think might have a good knowledge base.

So if you get on the local news for having the coronavirus cure, you're gonna be the most known doctor in wherever it is in Texas. And that will mean lots of benefits (plus some folks just plain enjoy the attention).

I don't know if it works and at least read that there are nebulous side affects. Obviously most people don't have serious side affects, otherwise it wouldn't be deemed safe at all. And I don't know the medical history of how fast it take people to adopt things. Maybe it's full of moments when non-reaserch doctors stumble on things that work and it takes years to get them fully accepted. But I have to assume thousands of doctors aren't withholding this magic cure because they just hate some politicians (especially considering the side whose medical law they lamented a good bit). If the stuff was really a cure-all some hospitals would be running through patients, curing them by the bucketload. Some other doctor would find out and it would propagate.

You can ask why these smattering of doctors keeps saying these things (though today's seems particularly flamboyant in style), but the flip side question is if these docs with strip mall clinics have it all figured out, how come huge hospital systems haven't and aren't leveraging it? I can promise there are plenty of doctors and hospital admins on one of those sides. And there have to be some areas that wouldn't object to the stuff. So if it's so magical, I can't see why huge swaths of Drs. aren't all in.
opening yourself to public ridicule is not very much of an incentive unless you turn out to be right



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 10:09:56 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on July 28, 2020, 09:58:53 PM
They actually do have the right to not have it on their platforms. That's literally the right they have.

Now, I suppose you could say the government should force a private entity to host speech it does not want to. That is well and good, though it sends us down a troubling rabbit hole if someone you don't like gets the keys to the car.
Yes they do have the right but the day is coming when they will be treated very much like a public utility and be requlated

Im really surprised they are poking the bear
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 10:10:30 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on July 28, 2020, 09:58:53 PM
They actually do have the right to not have it on their platforms. That's literally the right they have.

Now, I suppose you could say the government should force a private entity to host speech it does not want to. That is well and good, though it sends us down a troubling rabbit hole if someone you don't like gets the keys to the car.
If you have and excercise. control over content open to the public, you can’t claim freedom from liability for any content. You should not have one without the other.  
no other entities do, this is an unprecedented exception carved out.  

That is the real rabbit hole
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 28, 2020, 10:19:43 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 10:08:05 PM
opening yourself to public ridicule is not very much of an incentive unless you turn out to be right




You'd be surprised. Unless the drug makes you puff up and pop, being known is better than being unknown for a business. Even if thousands of people think you're a dummy, if hundreds want your service, you'll be busy with profitable work for a good long time. 

Think about it like the "magic" cookware they sell on TV. Even if many think it's a silly piece of junk, all that matters is if enough folks buy it to keep you in business. 

And I agree if this actually was a miracle drug, hell should truly be paid. But that's what makes me skeptical. Even if we blame some kind of social pressure, there are bug swaths of the country where there isn't, and then I should be seeing tons of great numbers and the rest of the rest of the country will follow suit. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 28, 2020, 10:29:03 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 10:10:30 PM
If you have and excercise. control over content open to the public, you can’t claim freedom from liability for any content. You should not have one without the other. 
no other entities do, this is an unprecedented exception carved out. 

That is the real rabbit hole
On personal level, I'm not particularly in favor of them doing it. The internet has always been rife with garbled nonsense, and I don't really see what makes this special. 

BUT, you really mostly can have some level of control over content open to the public and be somewhat free from liability of that content. If I have a radio show, I have callers, the show isn't held responsible for what the callers say and isn't censoring them because it drops them for whatever reason it chooses. 

In the end, having no control over the content is a disaster waiting to happen. And having government mandate something about the content is going to be a clownshow and a massively expensive endeavor. I find parts of the current arrangement problematic, but there's not much of a real solution that doesn't spin off many more real problems. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 28, 2020, 10:30:26 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 10:09:56 PM
Yes they do have the right but the day is coming when they will be treated very much like a public utility and be requlated

Im really surprised they are poking the bear
I look forward to the high taxes required to pay for the massive scale of regulation that's gonna require. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 28, 2020, 10:33:04 PM
Oh boy, this thread get fucked up.

Probably gonna lose 3 pages when UTee shows up again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 10:46:49 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on July 28, 2020, 10:29:03 PM
On personal level, I'm not particularly in favor of them doing it. The internet has always been rife with garbled nonsense, and I don't really see what makes this special.

BUT, you really mostly can have some level of control over content open to the public and be somewhat free from liability of that content. If I have a radio show, I have callers, the show isn't held responsible for what the callers say and isn't censoring them because it drops them for whatever reason it chooses.

In the end, having no control over the content is a disaster waiting to happen. And having government mandate something about the content is going to be a clownshow and a massively expensive endeavor. I find parts of the current arrangement problematic, but there's not much of a real solution that doesn't spin off many more real problems.
I am not, nor is anyone I have heard, proposing a government mandate to allow specific content.That would be a catastrophe.

Section 230, the rule of the law that protects them from liability from content.  They do not have the same level of ability as a publisher to edit, so they are protected.

This has been controversial because of creepy things line sex trafficking- since it very difficult
to screen that garbage in real time. Just like your radio show example.

But the rule is clear- not to abuse the protection afforded them by censorship of dissenting political views.  They are clearly, repeatedly doing just that.

I am surprised you don’t see the difference.
How they are operating in that area is exactly like a publisher.  No freedom of speech.  And child porn or anything like that is not included in free speech. 

But several doctors talking about literally hope?
Clearly that doesn’t fit their agenda. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 10:48:07 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 28, 2020, 10:33:04 PM
Oh boy, this thread get fucked up.

Probably gonna lose 3 pages when UTee shows up again.
Well, it has its basis in a potential coronavirus treatment. 😬😬
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 11:07:44 PM
I dont think we have gotten off topic at all

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 28, 2020, 11:26:51 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 10:46:49 PM
I am not, nor is anyone I have heard, proposing a government mandate to allow specific content.That would be a catastrophe.

Section 230, the rule of the law that protects them from liability from content.  They do not have the same level of ability as a publisher to edit, so they are protected.

This has been controversial because of creepy things line sex trafficking- since it very difficult
to screen that garbage in real time. Just like your radio show example.

But the rule is clear- not to abuse the protection afforded them by censorship of dissenting political views.  They are clearly, repeatedly doing just that.

I am surprised you don’t see the difference.
How they are operating in that area is exactly like a publisher.  No freedom of speech.  And child porn or anything like that is not included in free speech. 

But several doctors talking about literally hope?
Clearly that doesn’t fit their agenda. 

Can you point me to this clear rule in the text of the law? 

The publisher thing isn't all or nothing. A website with comments can be a publisher and is oft treated as a platform when it comes to third-party comments. That even is the case when they moderate those comments. And there's a market solution if you don't like it, which is use something else. Because there is a good bit of something else.

(The thing you mentioned as not free speech, if you drop the word child, that actually is considered free speech in a lot of cases. None the less, it's moderated off a lot of platforms. And if you lose your protection for taking such things off your platforms, than most everyone on the internet has done that thing)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 11:48:08 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 09:19:38 PM
By the way- this has nothing to do with sides. It is about freedom of expression without fear of being persecuted or ridiculed.

what you are now known for is, since you can’t sensor other opinions you have to insult others.

I can play by your rules- it seems it is all you know. 
You brought up sides when you said "take a poll of people on this site".

I don't want to censor anyone's opinions - that's unAmerian.  Don't you know that?  I'm not sure who I've insulted, either.  I've called irrational ideas irrational, by definition.  And I've laughed at how obtuse you're being on this one point about social media sites taking down miracle tonic posts.  

I'm not insulting you when I say you're wrong.  Nor do I expect you to tiptoe anywhere near the reality of the thing.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 29, 2020, 12:01:15 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 11:48:08 PM
You brought up sides when you said "take a poll of people on this site".

I don't want to censor anyone's opinions - that's unAmerian.  Don't you know that?  I'm not sure who I've insulted, either.  I've called irrational ideas irrational, by definition.  And I've laughed at how obtuse you're being on this one point about social media sites taking down miracle tonic posts. 

I'm not insulting you when I say you're wrong.  Nor do I expect you to tiptoe anywhere near the reality of the thing. 
Perhaps the next time you disagree with someone you put forth the reasons you disagree instead of just making some off the wall comment

nobody likes a smart ass but most on here will at least listen to you if you showed a little more courtesy 

If I disagree with you Im going to tell you why not just that youre wrong so we can have a conversation

you might find that there are areas where there is agreement
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 29, 2020, 01:03:36 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 28, 2020, 08:55:35 PM
Regardless there were other credible doctors in that video. 

you formed an opinion as you should, that is your right.  But that’s the point.

Google which owns YouTube, Twitter and Facebook do not have the right to censor that video off of the Internet which is exactly what they have now done. 

If you have the power of censorship, and actively exercise it  which they have clearly been doing brazenly for months and months now, then you need to be open to liability.
HB: They do have the right, just like the Cleveland Plain Dealer has a right not to print your letter to the editor.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 29, 2020, 01:09:27 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 11:48:08 PM
You brought up sides when you said "take a poll of people on this site".

I don't want to censor anyone's opinions - that's unAmerian.  Don't you know that?  I'm not sure who I've insulted, either.  I've called irrational ideas irrational, by definition.  And I've laughed at how obtuse you're being on this one point about social media sites taking down miracle tonic posts. 

I'm not insulting you when I say you're wrong.  Nor do I expect you to tiptoe anywhere near the reality of the thing.
I don't even know what this particular fight is about, but this gets back to what I tried to tell you some time ago.  There is such a thing as courtesy.  Good manners.  They help smooth rough edges.  When we are communicating in text, the smile, the wink of an eye, the hand gestures, they're all gone.  All we have is the words.  And you seem to go out of your way to make yours as abrasive as possible.

When people take offense, and you didn't mean to offend, it's often because to didn't bother to use simple courtesy.

I'm just lookin' out for you here, Afro!  You've got lots of good ideas, lots of interesting ideas, and some really boneheaded/ignorant ideas.  But we often don't get to discuss the ideas, because we're reacting to the way you put them across instead.

P.S. Saying that you're right and we're all wrong is part of the problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 29, 2020, 06:02:31 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 29, 2020, 01:03:36 AM
HB: They do have the right, just like the Cleveland Plain Dealer has a right not to print your letter to the editor.
Exactly.  The Cleveland Plain Dealer is subject to liability because they control content. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on July 29, 2020, 08:11:10 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 29, 2020, 06:02:31 AM
Exactly.  The Cleveland Plain Dealer is subject to liability because they control content.


Exactly. The Cleveland Plain Dealer is not covered by the Section 230 carve out put in place for online content providers. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2020, 08:55:18 AM
Okay fact checkers and censors, just because a doctor has said cysts are caused by sex with demons in the patient’s dreams, pharmaceutical companies are illegally using alien DNA in their medicine, and vaccines are designed to inoculate people from religion, doesn’t mean the doctor lacks credibility on coronavirus treatments and the effectiveness of masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 29, 2020, 08:56:11 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 29, 2020, 06:02:31 AM
Exactly.  The Cleveland Plain Dealer is subject to liability because they control content.


OK. Let's tease this out.

The Cleveland Plain Dealer also has comments. Those comments are moderated to a certain degree. If what you are saying is accurate, then a person could sue the outlet over the content of the comment section. 

The same could happen on the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, this here website. But these things do not happen. They do not happen because the 230 protections are broad and because an outlet can be a publisher of its own content, while also providing an "interactive computer service" to third-party speakers. 

Now there's sort of another interesting question. Even if one imagined Facebook/Google/YouTube was liable for all this stuff, what would be the positive endgame? One couldn't sue for suppression of ideas. That's not a thing. You could sue for other stuff being on there, which would mostly just mean a great contraction of said platforms to something they could cleanly monitor. Is that a positive endgame? It just means big tech has a tighter grip on speech, which there is less of. 

Again, I don't like what they're doing because it mostly just creates a Streisand Effect and is simply badly done. But there's no litmus test of political balance that doesn't open up a host of other issues. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 29, 2020, 10:31:13 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 29, 2020, 01:09:27 AM

P.S. Saying that you're right and we're all wrong is part of the problem.
I can't help but think this is tied to the "being courteous" idea.  It's not about 'I'm right and you're wrong,' it's about what IS.  

Many here are seemingly obsessed with the WHO of the thing and not the WHAT.  It's definitely a larger divide between us than happy-nice teddy bear speech.  

Let's go with the doctor with the miracle tonic.  If the doc is worth anything, they'll know (objectively) that evidence and time will yield the truth, not animated claims on a shaky camera.  But I'm afraid even that is something that will be debated here.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 29, 2020, 10:49:36 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on July 29, 2020, 08:56:11 AM
OK. Let's tease this out.

The Cleveland Plain Dealer also has comments. Those comments are moderated to a certain degree. If what you are saying is accurate, then a person could sue the outlet over the content of the comment section.

The same could happen on the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, this here website. But these things do not happen. They do not happen because the 230 protections are broad and because an outlet can be a publisher of its own content, while also providing an "interactive computer service" to third-party speakers.

Now there's sort of another interesting question. Even if one imagined Facebook/Google/YouTube was liable for all this stuff, what would be the positive endgame? One couldn't sue for suppression of ideas. That's not a thing. You could sue for other stuff being on there, which would mostly just mean a great contraction of said platforms to something they could cleanly monitor. Is that a positive endgame? It just means big tech has a tighter grip on speech, which there is less of.

Again, I don't like what they're doing because it mostly just creates a Streisand Effect and is simply badly done. But there's no litmus test of political balance that doesn't open up a host of other issues.
230 does not protect Cleveland Zplain Desler, Fox News-or WSJ. 

it protects the tech giants who host content on their platform- precisely because they can’t control all content. But they are over hiding behind that protection to promote a political agenda and censoring opposing views- extremely reasonable and often majority supported rules. That is precisely what they committed not to do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 29, 2020, 11:00:42 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 29, 2020, 10:31:13 AM
I can't help but think this is tied to the "being courteous" idea.  It's not about 'I'm right and you're wrong,' it's about what IS. 

Many here are seemingly obsessed with the WHO of the thing and not the WHAT.  It's definitely a larger divide between us than happy-nice teddy bear speech. 

Let's go with the doctor with the miracle tonic.  If the doc is worth anything, they'll know (objectively) that evidence and time will yield the truth, not animated claims on a shaky camera.  But I'm afraid even that is something that will be debated here. 
Well there IS a great debate going on in the medical community. 
plenty of clinical studies showing both positive and neutral results for this medicine.  I heard two very respected doctors yesterday singing its praises and angry because their view of a political narrative preventing them from getting it for their patients. 
so science does not agree.  Who has the right to not only make a determination, but to impose that on everyone else. 
not you.  Not any politician.  Not google or Facebook.

in an election year, the party trying to gain power always wants to portray the worst, and the party in power the best.  Nothing new there.

But it is going to far when it hides medical hope and possibilities from citizens.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2020, 11:03:43 AM
The preponderence of clinical data does not support use of chlorohydroxyquine for treatment or prevention of COVID.

Each "side" (and it's unfortunate we have "sides") can cherry pick data and results, but if you review it ALL, the story if far from compelling, and the positive results that exist are not very impressive, to me.

There should be no side but TRUTH, to the best of our ability to assess it, and I'll leave that to the doctors, aside from forming my personal opinion at this point.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 29, 2020, 11:05:01 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 29, 2020, 10:31:13 AM
I can't help but think this is tied to the "being courteous" idea.  It's not about 'I'm right and you're wrong,' it's about what IS. 

Many here are seemingly obsessed with the WHO of the thing and not the WHAT.  It's definitely a larger divide between us than happy-nice teddy bear speech. 

Let's go with the doctor with the miracle tonic.  If the doc is worth anything, they'll know (objectively) that evidence and time will yield the truth, not animated claims on a shaky camera.  But I'm afraid even that is something that will be debated here. 
If I think Ive come up with something that will save lives Im not just gonna let time pass
Im gonna scream it to all who can hear me

This doctor thinks there is an agenda against this drug and is trying to alert the public that it can save lives

If she is full of crap I still want to know more about the possibility of saving lives
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 29, 2020, 11:20:56 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 29, 2020, 10:31:13 AM
I can't help but think this is tied to the "being courteous" idea.  It's not about 'I'm right and you're wrong,' it's about what IS. 

Many here are seemingly obsessed with the WHO of the thing and not the WHAT.  It's definitely a larger divide between us than happy-nice teddy bear speech. 

Let's go with the doctor with the miracle tonic.  If the doc is worth anything, they'll know (objectively) that evidence and time will yield the truth, not animated claims on a shaky camera.  But I'm afraid even that is something that will be debated here.
You missed my point, as you often do.  Maybe that's my fault.  Communication is a two-way street.
The "right and wrong" I mentioned was not about the facts of the COVID-19 pandemic, but about the idea that good manners would help you get your arguments across.  You have previously rejected the notion that good manners matter.  Several posters here have told you that you have bad manners, that you are discourteous.  You say that that doesn't matter.
It is that conflict of visions that prompted my point about you asserting that you are right and everybody else is wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 29, 2020, 11:23:46 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 08:56:05 PM
An irrational view is irrational, no matter how many people believe it.  And no, I'm not being insulting, I'm using the word 'irrational' correctly and matter-of-factly.
Irrational and non-rational are not the same thing.
Your support of Gator football is non-rational.
Love is non-rational.  So is hate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 29, 2020, 11:25:42 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 09:00:51 PM
CW this woman may be full of crap but she isnt the only doctor saying things like this
Maybe so, 320.  In that case, it would be better to cite the other doctors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 29, 2020, 11:28:44 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 29, 2020, 11:03:43 AM
The preponderence of clinical data does not support use of chlorohydroxyquine for treatment or prevention of COVID.

Each "side" (and it's unfortunate we have "sides") can cherry pick data and results, but if you review it ALL, the story if far from compelling, and the positive results that exist are not very impressive, to me.

There should be no side but TRUTH, to the best of our ability to assess it, and I'll leave that to the doctors, aside from forming my personal opinion at this point.


The doctors don’t agree.  Not even close.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 29, 2020, 11:31:14 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 09:29:23 PM
this conversation reminds me of a SNL routine

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c91XUyg9iWM (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c91XUyg9iWM)
Classic!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 29, 2020, 11:33:33 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 28, 2020, 10:08:05 PM
opening yourself to public ridicule is not very much of an incentive unless you turn out to be right
We've got a very high public official in our country who opens himself up to public ridicule by making false or at best unverifiable claims multiple times each day.
Some people operate on the theory that negative attention is better than no attention at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 29, 2020, 11:49:17 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 29, 2020, 11:33:33 AM
We've got a very high public official in our country who opens himself up to public ridicule by making false or at best unverifiable claims multiple times each day.
Some people operate on the theory that negative attention is better than no attention at all.
I would like to respond here but whats the use it will just be deleted 

have a nice day

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on July 29, 2020, 12:01:57 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2020, 09:06:05 PM
So you believed in Kaepernick's kneeling, BLM's protesting, et al?  MMMMMMMMMkay.
I can tell you I absolutely believed in his right to kneel and BLM’s right to protest.  Now, did I agree with their platforms? Absolutely not.  I believe both were protesting more of a narrative than anything that is backed by facts.  But I absolutely believe in their right to peacefully protest something they feel is an injustice.  Now as soon as peaceful protests become riots then it’s time to shut that shit down.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 29, 2020, 12:35:29 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 29, 2020, 10:49:36 AM
230 does not protect Cleveland Zplain Desler, Fox News-or WSJ. 

it protects the tech giants who host content on their platform- precisely because they can’t control all content. But they are over hiding behind that protection to promote a political agenda and censoring opposing views- extremely reasonable and often majority supported rules. That is precisely what they committed not to do.
So you're saying someone could sue all those outlets for what's written in the comments below articles?

Man, the lawyers are getting lazy if they're not taking advantage of that. 

Also, there is not a single thing in 230 that demands political balance. That standard is made all the way up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 29, 2020, 01:02:52 PM
Why do so many of you insist on banging your heads against walls?  Weird.

Anyway, please keep the blatant political stuff to the other thread.  I think the discussions of HCQ and its various support and opposition are appropriate for this thread, tough.

And I'll agree with HonestBuckeye that the doctors absolutely DO NOT agree on HCQ, and the science is far from settled, if such a thing can ever even apply in a situation like this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 29, 2020, 01:10:48 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on July 29, 2020, 12:35:29 PM
So you're saying someone could sue all those outlets for what's written in the comments below articles?

Man, the lawyers are getting lazy if they're not taking advantage of that.

Also, there is not a single thing in 230 that demands political balance. That standard is made all the way up.
I obviously do not have the ability, or the desire, to change your mind.  You are not getting my point- as evidenced by your repeated attempts ( innocently) to rephrase my point- incorrectly 
that’s ok.  
I can only say I am a huge supporter of freedom of speech and a huge opponent of censorship of opposing points of view.  I am disappointed at how much that is going on now.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on July 29, 2020, 01:35:58 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 29, 2020, 01:09:27 AM
You've got lots of good ideas, lots of interesting ideas, and some really boneheaded/ignorant ideas.  But we often don't get to discuss the ideas, because we're reacting to the way you put them across instead.

P.S. Saying that you're right and we're all wrong is part of the problem.
And if you some how think he's going to come into possession of anything resembling a CLUE then Believing in demon seed,alien DNA and doctor's ability to analyze a pandemic isn't so far fetched
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 29, 2020, 02:19:32 PM
I scrolled through 3 or 4 pages of crap since last night

hope I didn't miss anything important
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 29, 2020, 02:20:26 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 29, 2020, 02:19:32 PM
I scrolled through 3 or 4 pages of crap since last night

hope I didn't miss anything important

Haha.  You didn’t miss A thing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 29, 2020, 02:27:26 PM
(https://ci5.googleusercontent.com/proxy/UlQurGBGC-yfHbQCKwaPhBCiVAaWNIHX16yl2R-5blZfd4tsCudoKsy5YiTfeg1UFNvBMEzr6g2Fj7VCg7Z4arShUkJ4b5Xbiz1ll34Ulb9X6GQBnA_s0JwEX7Hk-HoWgqQbwlbzAfM=s0-d-e1-ft#https://static.nytimes.com/email-images/New_Headers/NYT-Headers-N-TheMorning%402x.png)
July 28, 2020
All spikes aren’t equal
Much of the world is now coping with a coronavirus resurgence.
The number of new daily cases has risen more than 20 percent in both Europe and Canada over the past week. It’s up about 40 percent in Australia and Japan. Hong Kong reported 145 cases yesterday, its highest one-day count yet and the sixth straight day of more than 100 new cases (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/gWz9XI4QP8SlfDUNcm-VpQ~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAoflP0TdaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wNy8yMC93b3JsZC9hc2lhL2hvbmcta29uZy1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMDA3MjgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjA3MDQmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xMzU3OTEwMjkmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0zNDUzMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9NWFlNmE0YmUwZjJkMDNlOGNjMjYwZTA3MjdhNzIzYzVXA255dEIKACPlAiBffSC7VFITcmJyaWdnc0BiaXhieXBzLm9yZ1gEAAAAAA~~).
All of these increases are worrisome reminders that crushing the virus is not a one-time event, at least not until a vaccine is available. It involves constant vigilance.
As countries take steps toward more normal functioning — reopening schools, workplaces and restaurants, for instance — they will often spark new outbreaks, which in turn will require more tests, quarantines and even limited lockdowns.
And yet all of these places are in a very different situation from the United States:
(https://ci5.googleusercontent.com/proxy/360cRa_VlXkQ_sZgyzyMGSE7pBXTaQv6LNOON3Uw3eg9-p7AW-AxGW6ID-PCSb1O5-ucx1TG5QchynyqZBSSp-OQJmUjfxfWOurbnoeaZJGiaPpKv_FerEtrAMTgmEyaOINEyE57PYM6eqkRINjjbyuc8ZXDCq9eDzjy=s0-d-e1-ft#https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/07/28/multimedia/28-MORNING-CASES/28-MORNING-CASES-articleLarge.png)

By The New York Times | Source: Johns Hopkins University

Even with the recent surges, the outbreaks elsewhere are much more contained and manageable than in the U.S. The U.S. has had about 15 times as many confirmed new cases, per capita, as Canada over the past week and 12 times as many as Hong Kong or Europe.
As a result, these other places still have the chance to keep their recent outbreaks from turning into something worse. Hong Kong has prohibited restaurant dining, limited public gatherings to two people and required mask-wearing in public at all times. Belgium is limiting people’s social contacts outside their family to the same five people over the next four weeks (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/1NwUw8r9QWx1y0inFxoU1g~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAoflP4QSAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmV1cm9uZXdzLmNvbS8yMDIwLzA3LzI2L2Nvcm9uYXZpcnVzLWdlcm1hbnktYW5kLWF1c3RyaWEtYmF0dGxlLWxvY2FsLW91dGJyZWFrcy1hcy1pdGFseS1zZXRzLTEtMDAwLWZhY2UtbWFzay1maW5lP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMDA3MjgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjA3MDQmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xMzU3OTEwMjkmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0zNDUzMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9NWFlNmE0YmUwZjJkMDNlOGNjMjYwZTA3MjdhNzIzYzVXA255dEIKACPlAiBffSC7VFITcmJyaWdnc0BiaXhieXBzLm9yZ1gEAAAAAA~~).
Much of the U.S. is responding less aggressively, even though its outbreak is more severe. Until that changes, many parts of the U.S. reopening — schools, pro sports and more — are likely to suffer setbacks, epidemiologists say.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 29, 2020, 02:36:55 PM
I wonder how Belgium is enforcing that policy of only interacting with the same 5 people outside of your family?

It's pretty obvious that the places that have reopened inside spaces where masks are difficult or impossible to use (bars, restaurants), are seeing increased cases.  Just as happened here.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2020, 02:40:34 PM
Yeah, once you reopen, it starts back again, area under the curve.  We did delay it, we kept the hospitals from being overrun, for now.  Could we shut down again and delay it until a vaccine is available?  Of course, but the economic impact ....

And yes, I have a thing for Cost:Benefit analyses.

The wife and I are going in for elective surgery (outpatient) in a week or so.

I think a vaccine should knock R naught far enough under unity to get this thing pushed back, but that is months off.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 29, 2020, 02:54:26 PM
I don't have any confidence that we'll have an effective vaccine.

But if it does happen, that would obviously be great.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 29, 2020, 03:00:41 PM
Just wear your mask.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 29, 2020, 03:11:16 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 29, 2020, 03:00:41 PM
Just wear your mask.

Yup.  Definitely appears to help.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2020, 03:28:59 PM
I have solid expectations of a useful vaccine.  Results from several early trials look very promising, better than I would have expected.  I don't know how long it will last.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 29, 2020, 03:39:19 PM
Being hopeful for an effective vaccine is fine.

Making any public health/policy decisions based on the assumption that we'll ever have an effective vaccine is not fine.

It'll result in continued delaying behavior, with no realistic expectation of result.  That will foment further rebellion and what small strides we've made, would be in danger of being completely wiped out, and worse than that, reversed.  We've already watched that happen in multiple states.  It will get far worse as things go on.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 29, 2020, 03:39:29 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 29, 2020, 01:10:48 PM
I obviously do not have the ability, or the desire, to change your mind.  You are not getting my point- as evidenced by your repeated attempts ( innocently) to rephrase my point- incorrectly
that’s ok. 
I can only say I am a huge supporter of freedom of speech and a huge opponent of censorship of opposing points of view.  I am disappointed at how much that is going on now. 
I mean, there's just a lot of fiction out there about how that 230 thing works. And some of what you wrote seemed to invoke some of it. If a point it built on some of those fictions, it's a tough point to make. 

And I think we're in part in agreement. I don't particularly like the shutting down of her video. Even if I think what she's saying if balderdash, people can say balderdash. But I also understand it's an exercise in the company's speech to not host that. There's other stuff they don't host that's free speech, and that is what it is. In truth, the freest of speech is often the most ugly and heinous. It's weird because we don't have a fully public square online, more an approximation of one, and that does create some questions. 

But I'll stand by the idea that this deconstruction of Section 230 creates either a litany of headaches, much less ability to speak online or both. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 29, 2020, 03:40:56 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 29, 2020, 03:39:19 PM
Being hopeful for an effective vaccine is fine.

Making any public health/policy decisions based on the assumption that we'll ever have an effective vaccine is not fine.

It'll result in continued delaying behavior, with no realistic expectation of result.  That will foment further rebellion and what small strides we've made, would be in danger of being completely wiped out, and worse than that, reversed.  We've already watched that happen in multiple states.  It will get far worse as things go on.


Agree with this.

The most interesting would to be the distribution process. How fast does it happen, how much normalcy can resume. Like, does life turn back even somewhat quickly?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 29, 2020, 03:41:24 PM
Both school districts for the kids opening with 100% distance learning. Hoping to resume in-person instruction.

Orange County Board of Education is going to sue Newsom over it. That'll be fun...

:sign0004:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 29, 2020, 03:42:34 PM
I'd say mean things about social media...

...but they buy a lot of storage products. 

So imma be quiet on anything related to Sec 230.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 29, 2020, 03:45:04 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 29, 2020, 03:42:34 PM
I'd say mean things about social media...

...but they buy a lot of storage products.

So imma be quiet on anything related to Sec 230.
Yeah we sell a lot of Enterprise systems and infrastructure to those companies, so...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2020, 03:47:27 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 29, 2020, 02:36:55 PM
I wonder how Belgium is enforcing that policy of only interacting with the same 5 people outside of your family?
They aren't, it's like a mask mandate.  I read somewhere there have been ZERO citations for not wearing a mask anywhere in the US.  ZERO.

I can claim I was six feet away.  The police aren't going to waste their time.

The wife was telling me about a big soiree' in Paris set up over social media, over a thousand young people in the parks playing music and dancing, no masks.  The police finally showed up and broke it up, but zero citations for anything.  The group probably moved over a few blocks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 29, 2020, 03:48:16 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 29, 2020, 03:41:24 PM
Both school districts for the kids opening with 100% distance learning. Hoping to resume in-person instruction.

Orange County Board of Education is going to sue Newsom over it. That'll be fun...

:sign0004:

Our school district will be online-only when it opens on 8/13, all the way through 9/7.  At that point they say they'll revert to the split model of some kids on-campus and some online-only, however parents had previously chosen.

However, I don't see any reason it will be any more, nor less safe, on 9/8, than it is right now.  And it won't be any more, nor less safe, on 10/8.  Or 11/8.  Or 12/8.  

This is just some "kick the can down the road" behavior to keep parents quiet about wanting in-person school.  

We're planning on yanking our kids from public school and putting them into pods.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 29, 2020, 04:05:19 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 29, 2020, 03:48:16 PM
Our school district will be online-only when it opens on 8/13, all the way through 9/7.  At that point they say they'll revert to the split model of some kids on-campus and some online-only, however parents had previously chosen.

However, I don't see any reason it will be any more, nor less safe, on 9/8, than it is right now.  And it won't be any more, nor less safe, on 10/8.  Or 11/8.  Or 12/8. 

This is just some "kick the can down the road" behavior to keep parents quiet about wanting in-person school. 

We're planning on yanking our kids from public school and putting them into pods.
Bean pods?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 29, 2020, 04:11:38 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on July 29, 2020, 04:05:19 PM
Bean pods?

(https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/13193829/invasion_otbs.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2020, 04:13:06 PM
I think we should pass a resolution to get serious about the Federal budget deficit in 2030.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 29, 2020, 04:14:27 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 29, 2020, 03:48:16 PM

We're planning on yanking our kids from public school and putting them into pods.
(https://i.imgur.com/3GnHWMw.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 29, 2020, 04:30:36 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 29, 2020, 04:14:27 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/3GnHWMw.png)

Ha!  I had no idea there was a controversy over terminology.  But I'm certainly not surprised! :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2020, 04:46:07 PM
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-africa-53579773?fbclid=IwAR299b_XopR877fQQJ3i2c7O9otdZ8N93vEC_mbLnjuodGYzxNOk8ypG6lQ (https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-africa-53579773?fbclid=IwAR299b_XopR877fQQJ3i2c7O9otdZ8N93vEC_mbLnjuodGYzxNOk8ypG6lQ)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 29, 2020, 05:20:46 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 29, 2020, 04:30:36 PM
Ha!  I had no idea there was a controversy over terminology.  But I'm certainly not surprised! :)
Well, if you don't read XKCD, you should start.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 29, 2020, 05:44:29 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 29, 2020, 05:20:46 PM
Well, if you don't read XKCD, you should start.
Never even heard of it, but it sounds like it's up my alley-- "A webcomic of romance, sarcasm, math, and language."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 29, 2020, 05:59:16 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 29, 2020, 05:20:46 PM
Well, if you don't read XKCD, you should start.
Holy crap this is good stuff.  I can't get past this one:


(https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/circuit_diagram.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 29, 2020, 06:00:47 PM
Yeah, and the mouse-over text is awesome.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 29, 2020, 06:03:24 PM
I'm pretty sure the above circuit diagram is exactly what I designed in my senior lab, when I was supposed to be creating a 16-bit RISC CPU in fast TTL logic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 29, 2020, 06:17:20 PM
We start school on Monday - online only.  For now, it's online-only until Aug 17th, but that date may be moved.  It's up to the school board, as our state leader and national leader have obfuscated their influences.  

I'm the "online only" teacher for my grade level, as in I'll be teaching that way as long as there are students not showing up in person.  So it's possible I could teach all year without meeting my students...which sucks.  

Overall, for this virus, at least we have an example of what NOT to do.  During the next one (and there will be a next one), we must not set arbitrary dates over and over and after several have passed, setting arbitrary dates to re-open.  That's what we've done:  back in April, we started the "hope and wait ___ weeks" thing.  Wait 2 weeks, and hopefully it'll be better.  Wait a month and hopefully it'll be better.  Wait 2 months, and eh, it's not really better, but it's not worse, so let's re-open.  

Half-measures and hope are garbage strategies.  A hardcore shutdown for 3 weeks would make sense.  Go out, gather your food and bullets and toilet paper for the next 3 weeks, because everyone is on lockdown.  

As long as we hold fast to our freedom to spread the disease, our freedom will imprison us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 29, 2020, 06:20:31 PM
I agree there will be another one.

I think it's unlikely the public will tolerate another actual lockdown in the face of a virus similar to this one.  It'll have to be "bodies lining the streets" bad before the public will allow it to happen again.

I won't make a value judgment on that statement, and it's certainly just my opinion, but that's what I see happening, realistically.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 29, 2020, 06:32:23 PM
People only have so much patience. The balance between selfishness and body count has gone the expected direction. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 29, 2020, 06:32:37 PM
Yup.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 29, 2020, 06:36:37 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 29, 2020, 06:20:31 PM
I agree there will be another one.

I think it's unlikely the public will tolerate another actual lockdown in the face of a virus similar to this one.  It'll have to be "bodies lining the streets" bad before the public will allow it to happen again.

I won't make a value judgment on that statement, and it's certainly just my opinion, but that's what I see happening, realistically.
Yeah, but looking back, that wasn't a lockdown.  Go out and get food whenever you want.  Go to your job, essential workers.  Hell, go out for any reason and just say you're getting food.

An actual, shorter lockdown would be more effective then a pseudo-lockdown full of whining and TP shortages.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 29, 2020, 06:58:05 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 29, 2020, 06:36:37 PM
Yeah, but looking back, that wasn't a lockdown.  Go out and get food whenever you want.  Go to your job, essential workers.  Hell, go out for any reason and just say you're getting food.

An actual, shorter lockdown would be more effective then a pseudo-lockdown full of whining and TP shortages.

That's fair.

But I think the data shows it was pretty effective regardless. The curve flattened and hospitals weren't overwhelmed and that was the whole point because the area under the curve isn't going to change-- wasn't ever even capable of changing.

People aren't getting COVID at the grocery store.  They're not getting it picking up take-out.  They're not getting it from deliveries. This is true in the US, it's true in Europe, and it's true all the way back to the beginning in China.  Uber Eats was VERY popular in China after they went on their much stricter lockdowns, and the virus still wasn't spreading there, not from THOSE sources.

It was spreading amongst meat packing plant workers.  And construction workers.  And line workers at manufacturing plants.  And then... once the bars opened... it was spreading there.  The worst.

I think we've got a pretty good handle on what spreads this virus.  Not everyone believes or understands or is willing to do even the bare minimum, but the smart folks that are paying attention know what environments and what behaviors are most likely to spread it.  The states that reopened bars and inside venues too quickly or too sharply have reversed that, and in most cases, the results are positive.  

I don't believe that a full, true lockdown could have eradicated this thing entirely, and that means that something was inevitably going to slip through, and start the climb all over again.  We must understand the ramifications of that knowledge, and let it shape future responses to similar events.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 29, 2020, 07:36:19 PM
Nicely put.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 29, 2020, 09:57:05 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 29, 2020, 03:48:16 PM
Our school district will be online-only when it opens on 8/13, all the way through 9/7.  At that point they say they'll revert to the split model of some kids on-campus and some online-only, however parents had previously chosen.

However, I don't see any reason it will be any more, nor less safe, on 9/8, than it is right now.  And it won't be any more, nor less safe, on 10/8.  Or 11/8.  Or 12/8. 

This is just some "kick the can down the road" behavior to keep parents quiet about wanting in-person school. 

We're planning on yanking our kids from public school and putting them into pods.
School boards are in a pickle, I think.  They are elected officials, so they are at least somewhat responsive to public opinion. And they've got some parents saying they'll be damned if they'll let their kids wear masks and other parents saying that they don't want their kids in school (a.k.a. Coronavirus Heaven) until the pandemic is over.
As I think I posted upthread, I don't see how we go for very long--like less than a month--before we start getting a few positives and contract tracing demonstrates that nearly everyone in the building has been exposed.
What then?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on July 29, 2020, 09:58:54 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/nePCLwH.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 29, 2020, 10:53:16 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 29, 2020, 09:57:05 PM
School boards are in a pickle, I think.  They are elected officials, so they are at least somewhat responsive to public opinion. And they've got some parents saying they'll be damned if they'll let their kids wear masks and other parents saying that they don't want their kids in school (a.k.a. Coronavirus Heaven) until the pandemic is over.
As I think I posted upthread, I don't see how we go for very long--like less than a month--before we start getting a few positives and contract tracing demonstrates that nearly everyone in the building has been exposed.
What then?
you test everybody and if positive quarantine and keep going

there will be positives and we just have to deal with it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 29, 2020, 10:53:30 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 29, 2020, 09:57:05 PM
School boards are in a pickle, I think.  They are elected officials, so they are at least somewhat responsive to public opinion. And they've got some parents saying they'll be damned if they'll let their kids wear masks and other parents saying that they don't want their kids in school (a.k.a. Coronavirus Heaven) until the pandemic is over.
As I think I posted upthread, I don't see how we go for very long--like less than a month--before we start getting a few positives and contract tracing demonstrates that nearly everyone in the building has been exposed.
What then?

They're for sure in a pickle.  I'm not certain the science indicates that children are going to transmit to adults in such a manner that they would infect "everyone in the building."  I think it's more likely those adults bring the exposure from elsewhere.  But given that the "children are a petri dish" rationale is the fear that's driving school closure, I am willing to concede, and this is precisely the reason I'm withdrawing my children and proceeding with alternative schooling.

Public schools don't want the health risk and that's fine.  I don't accept the risk to the education of my children and I will proceed with alternative plans.

We have freedom, we have choice, and we can exercise those options.  Isn't that one of the main reasons many of us claim to love this country?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 29, 2020, 11:10:25 PM
The blind, angry people insisting on in-person schooling only need to go peek in some classrooms.

Every child and adult in a mask, desks spaced 6 feet apart, and no touching/leaning over a shoulder/shared materials. 

All supplemental furniture removed from the classroom, classes staying in their classrooms, save for lunch and P.E.
Not going to be very fun if you're 7 years old.  Confined to one room, covered up and spaced out.  Straining to see the board if their teacher isn't very tech-savvy OR straining from looking at their screens for 6 hours if their teacher is tech savvy. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 29, 2020, 11:16:51 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 29, 2020, 11:10:25 PM
The blind, angry people insisting on in-person schooling only need to go peek in some classrooms.

Every child and adult in a mask, desks spaced 6 feet apart, and no touching/leaning over a shoulder/shared materials. 

All supplemental furniture removed from the classroom, classes staying in their classrooms, save for lunch and P.E.
Not going to be very fun if you're 7 years old.  Confined to one room, covered up and spaced out.  Straining to see the board if their teacher isn't very tech-savvy OR straining from looking at their screens for 6 hours if their teacher is tech savvy. 


Your "blind, angry" characterization of concerned parents that don't share your exact, narrow view, renders you incompetent to possess a worthwhile opinion.  It's your standard flaw, your most basic defect. Your experience is so narrow that you simply don't have a reasonable basis for generating an objective view.

But I've already granted you the concession.  I'm not insisting on in-person schooling for all children.  I'm withdrawing my children from the purview of your flawed, narrow view, and providing better for them, outside of your system.

No skin off your back, I can absolutely guarantee that you aren't someone I'd voluntarily ask to educate my children.  Breathe easy.  You are 100% off the hook.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on July 29, 2020, 11:18:21 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 29, 2020, 06:17:20 PM
We start school on Monday - online only.  For now, it's online-only until Aug 17th, but that date may be moved.  It's up to the school board, as our state leader and national leader have obfuscated their influences. 

I'm the "online only" teacher for my grade level, as in I'll be teaching that way as long as there are students not showing up in person.  So it's possible I could teach all year without meeting my students...which sucks. 

Overall, for this virus, at least we have an example of what NOT to do.  During the next one (and there will be a next one), we must not set arbitrary dates over and over and after several have passed, setting arbitrary dates to re-open.  That's what we've done:  back in April, we started the "hope and wait ___ weeks" thing.  Wait 2 weeks, and hopefully it'll be better.  Wait a month and hopefully it'll be better.  Wait 2 months, and eh, it's not really better, but it's not worse, so let's re-open. 

Half-measures and hope are garbage strategies.  A hardcore shutdown for 3 weeks would make sense.  Go out, gather your food and bullets and toilet paper for the next 3 weeks, because everyone is on lockdown. 

As long as we hold fast to our freedom to spread the disease, our freedom will imprison us.
I can not even imagine the chaos that would ensue if the government told everyone to go get everything you need now because we are shutting everything down for 3 weeks.  Grocery stores would become war zones.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 29, 2020, 11:21:57 PM
I wasn't suggesting you were part of that group of people, just that there is a group of people out there that can be described as such.


You do this a lot - feeling targeted by my posts when you're not part of the population I'm talking about.  I'd teach your kids to maintain objectivity and to not take discussions personally.  It's too bad you've forbidden it.  


The only people who should feel targeted by my post concerning "blind, angry people" are the blind, angry people out there.  Pretty fucking simple.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 29, 2020, 11:22:24 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on July 29, 2020, 11:18:21 PM
I can not even imagine the chaos that would ensue if the government told everyone to go get everything you need now because we are shutting everything down for 3 weeks.  Grocery stores would become war zones.
It depends how much time was provided to do so.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 29, 2020, 11:28:33 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 29, 2020, 11:21:57 PM
I wasn't suggesting you were part of that group of people, just that there is a group of people out there that can be described as such.


You do this a lot - feeling targeted by my posts when you're not part of the population I'm talking about.  I'd teach your kids to maintain objectivity and to not take discussions personally.  It's too bad you've forbidden it. 


The only people who should feel targeted by my post concerning "blind, angry people" are the blind, angry people out there.  Pretty fucking simple.
Who were you responding to on this message board?  Who, on this message board, has acted as such?  And if not me or other parents on this message board, why even bring it up here?

You do this a lot-- drive-by posting of blanket accusations, and then retreating when you're called out on it.  If I could, I'd teach you to maintain objectivity, but the sad truth is you're far beyond that.  It's too bad that you've sequestered yourself and shut yourself off from it.  You seem like a truly miserable soul, and I hope that in real life, you're not.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 29, 2020, 11:31:26 PM
I was just sharing a thought - hence the lack of quoting anyone else's post.  

Review the last 7-8 posts.  We were agreeing and it was going well until you (incorrectly) got butt-hurt because you thought I was being critical of you.  

I wasn't.  Isn't that enough?  Snowflake.  Mirror.  Jesus Christ.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 29, 2020, 11:34:20 PM
And it's funny.....I'm criticized for not thoroughly, specifically saying "I think" or "In my opinion" or who I'm addressing.....yet when I post again more thoroughly and more specifically, it's labeled as retreating and that I always do it.


The hell?!?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 29, 2020, 11:37:49 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 29, 2020, 11:31:26 PM
I was just sharing a thought - hence the lack of quoting anyone else's post. 

Review the last 7-8 posts.  We were agreeing and it was going well until you (incorrectly) got butt-hurt because you thought I was being critical of you. 

I wasn't.  Isn't that enough?  Snowflake.  Mirror.  Jesus Christ.

And off you go, again.  Look in the mirror yourself.  Projecting your fears or angst onto others isn't going to change you. 

Even the people on this message board that desperately want to agree with your positions,  find themselves disagreeing with your unceasingly angry, abrasive nature. 

Again, I sincerely hope that in real life, you're not as miserable as you are on this message board.  I really do mean that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on July 29, 2020, 11:42:55 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 29, 2020, 11:22:24 PM
It depends how much time was provided to do so. 
Idk. I think the timeframe would be irrelevant. You could give everyone 3 weeks , 3 months , or 3 years warning and as we got closer to  the lockdown it would still look the same. Utter chaos.  There would have to be some contingency plans in place.  I just can’t see a hard lockdown on the entire country for 3 weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 30, 2020, 01:15:39 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 29, 2020, 11:21:57 PM
I wasn't suggesting you were part of that group of people, just that there is a group of people out there that can be described as such.


You do this a lot - feeling targeted by my posts when you're not part of the population I'm talking about.  I'd teach your kids to maintain objectivity and to not take discussions personally.  It's too bad you've forbidden it. 


The only people who should feel targeted by my post concerning "blind, angry people" are the blind, angry people out there.  Pretty fucking simple.
Manners.  Courtesy.  Get to know these concepts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 30, 2020, 02:16:50 AM
Yes, it’s my fault for his wrong assumption.  It’s always my fault.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 30, 2020, 06:41:30 AM
There's certainly momentum for Ohio schools to start online.  My youngest two have been given the option of online school or virtual school to start the year. ???
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 30, 2020, 06:53:19 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on July 30, 2020, 06:41:30 AM
There's certainly momentum for Ohio schools to start online.  My youngest two have been given the option of online school or virtual school to start the year. ???
Tough call.  Not sure what I would do if I still had school age children.   I feel for you.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 30, 2020, 06:55:35 AM
https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2020/07/24/new-york-city-urban-exodus-housing-real-estate-suburb-connecticut-catskills-orig.cnn-business


Meanwhile, some interesting Early trends from Covid are impacting the real estate market and where people want to live. It raises many interesting questions.   Not sure we will know the answers for a long while    
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 30, 2020, 07:11:19 AM
For Florida, I go to planet fitness.  Masks have been mandatory since End of May, but you were allowed to take them off for the cardio machines ( elyptical, stairclimber, treadmill, etc), and every other machine is turned off, so there would be about 10-12 feet of spacing.

Effective Saturday, masks will be worn even when doing cardio. I have tried that, and it is very very challenging.  I will try again, but I may end up doing the cardio pieces at home on my treadmill.

It probably is a good move though....I have felt there was some risk in the gym anyway with it being indoors and the ventilation/ AC circulating.  

Catch 22, so many people go there to keep their body in good shape, build muscle, lose fat and increase respitory capacity.....all good things.  But now, maybe too risky so many will give that up.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 30, 2020, 07:43:03 AM
I've tried running with the mask on, I just can't do it.  Fortunately, running out here in my part of the 'burbs, it's easy to stay quite far from other people, so wearing a mask isn't really necessary.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 30, 2020, 08:32:28 AM
Quote from: utee94 on July 30, 2020, 07:43:03 AM
I've tried running with the mask on, I just can't do it.  Fortunately, running out here in my part of the 'burbs, it's easy to stay quite far from other people, so wearing a mask isn't really necessary. 
I am jealous. Been in sports ( football, Basketball, baseball, volleyball, track) but now I have old man knees. 

I can only do treadmill, brisk walking( still play golf multiple times per week) or other cardio, but can’t really run outside.  Time to get back on my bicycle I guess. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 30, 2020, 09:24:19 AM
seems a few of y'all were up past your bedtime
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 30, 2020, 09:25:26 AM
glad I don't have kids in school

just wish my daughter at UNL could get her internship finished and graduate - that's all she's lacking 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 30, 2020, 09:41:14 AM
I see a lot of resistance (and rationalizing) on FB about NOT wearing a mask.  Some think it's not healthy CO2 etc.  I bought some soft cotton masks for me and the wife and they are comfortable enough, I don't have a problem wearing them when we're around others.  I don't when I jog, I can avoid others on the track easily.

I have to get the dreaded lurgy test next Tuesday, along with the presurgical physical, done same place fortunately.

You get tested on Tuesday and have surgery from Friday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on July 30, 2020, 09:53:21 AM
Quote from: utee94 on July 30, 2020, 07:43:03 AM
I've tried running with the mask on, I just can't do it.  Fortunately, running out here in my part of the 'burbs, it's easy to stay quite far from other people, so wearing a mask isn't really necessary. 
I ride my bike masked, and I don't have a problem breathing, even after a hard effort or steep uphill. Another upside is not inhaling bugs during said hard efforts.

Quote from: FearlessF on July 30, 2020, 09:25:26 AM
glad I don't have kids in school

just wish my daughter at UNL could get her internship finished and graduate - that's all she's lacking
Kinda glad I took the PE exam last fall. The spring exam was cancelled outright, and it's causing problems with capacity and format restrictions with NCEES and Pearson.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on July 30, 2020, 10:19:55 AM
You don’t need to wear a mask if you’re outside running or on a bike. 

This thing is a weird disease that pretty much only spreads in close quarters, indoors. Which is a reason why people like evolutionary biologist Bret Weinstein think it might have leaked from a lab. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 30, 2020, 10:33:28 AM
There was an early scare that we could get it from surfaces.  That has proven to be rare, probably about as rare as picking up anything from a surface.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 30, 2020, 10:40:02 AM
its to bad they cant bring the outdoors inside for opening the schools
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 30, 2020, 10:44:36 AM
Herman Cain died from coronavirus
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 30, 2020, 10:44:59 AM
Yeah.  There was some talk about having in-person classes outdoors, but there are just so many challenges there, it's a pretty unworkable solution.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on July 30, 2020, 10:51:41 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on July 30, 2020, 10:44:36 AM
Herman Cain died from coronavirus
Herman Cain was 75 years old and had been battling stage 4 cancer. So, uh, yeah.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 30, 2020, 10:55:43 AM
Yeah, I guess people like Herman Cain are expendable.

3/4 of people who recover have persistent heart damage.

https://people.com/health/three-quarters-recovered-coronavirus-patients-have-heart-damage-months-later/?utm_source=emailshare&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email-share-article&utm_content=20200730 (https://people.com/health/three-quarters-recovered-coronavirus-patients-have-heart-damage-months-later/?utm_source=emailshare&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email-share-article&utm_content=20200730)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 30, 2020, 10:58:43 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 30, 2020, 10:55:43 AM
Yeah, I guess people like Herman Cain are expendable.

3/4 of people who recover have persistent heart damage.

https://people.com/health/three-quarters-recovered-coronavirus-patients-have-heart-damage-months-later/?utm_source=emailshare&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email-share-article&utm_content=20200730 (https://people.com/health/three-quarters-recovered-coronavirus-patients-have-heart-damage-months-later/?utm_source=emailshare&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email-share-article&utm_content=20200730)
CW I dont think Mdot meant it the way it sounded at least I hope not

Nobody is expendable and its a shame he passed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 30, 2020, 11:12:49 AM


I wouldnt accepts this as accurate just yet

They looked at 100 patients and other then age we dont know much about these patients

preexisting conditions etc and how sick did they get and was there any followup to see id the damage remained

not saying the virus doesnt harm your heart but we should wait for more info before we say 75% of virus patients have damaged hearts
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 30, 2020, 11:18:05 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on July 30, 2020, 10:51:41 AM
Herman Cain was 75 years old and had been battling stage 4 cancer. So, uh, yeah.
I saw he had cancer in 2006 though haven't seen anything saying he was currently battling it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 30, 2020, 11:23:40 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on July 30, 2020, 11:18:05 AM
I saw he had cancer in 2006 though haven't seen anything saying he was currently battling it
I dont know either but if he had chemo it trashes your immune system so either way he would be at a higher risk
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 30, 2020, 11:25:22 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 30, 2020, 11:23:40 AM
I dont know either but if he had chemo it trashes your immune system so either way he would be at a higher risk
Oh I know just his post made it seem like he was currently suffering from stage IV cancer. My mother just went through chemo and is 73 so it's a worry
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 30, 2020, 11:43:20 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 30, 2020, 11:12:49 AM

I wouldnt accepts this as accurate just yet

They looked at 100 patients and other then age we dont know much about these patients

preexisting conditions etc and how sick did they get and was there any followup to see id the damage remained

not saying the virus doesnt harm your heart but we should wait for more info before we say 75% of virus patients have damaged hearts
100% of the people I know that have had a positive test have had no lingering affects at all.  Of course not one of them was even close to being hospitalized.  Very mild cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 30, 2020, 12:04:37 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 30, 2020, 11:23:40 AM
I dont know either but if he had chemo it trashes your immune system so either way he would be at a higher risk
The thing that's never been made clear is what percent of the population is at higher risk.

It's spoken about as a relative minority, but are we talking 1 in 100? 1 in 10? 1 in 6?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 30, 2020, 12:16:27 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 30, 2020, 10:58:43 AM
CW I dont think Mdot meant it the way it sounded at least I hope not

Nobody is expendable and its a shame he passed
Based on his past posts, it seems the olds and fats/uglies should lock themselves in their houses so the young and skinny people can just get on with their lives. 

I hope that's merely hyperbole... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 30, 2020, 12:19:58 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on July 30, 2020, 12:04:37 PM
The thing that's never been made clear is what percent of the population is at higher risk.

It's spoken about as a relative minority, but are we talking 1 in 100? 1 in 10? 1 in 6?
not sure anyone really knows
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 30, 2020, 12:37:52 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 30, 2020, 12:16:27 PM
Based on his past posts, it seems the olds and fats/uglies should lock themselves in their houses so the young and skinny people can just get on with their lives.

I hope that's merely hyperbole...
apparently, Herman Cain wasn't locked in his house.
wonder what his source of contact was?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 30, 2020, 01:14:49 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 30, 2020, 12:16:27 PM
Based on his past posts, it seems the olds and fats/uglies should lock themselves in their houses so the young and skinny people can just get on with their lives.

I hope that's merely hyperbole...
My inlaws sure as shit should have stayed locked in their house.  They engaged in risky behavior, and unsurprisingly, they caught it.  I think they'd definitely choose a different path if they had to do it again.  I'm using it as a cautionary tale for my own parents, but they've been less risky all along so I'm not as worried about them.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 30, 2020, 01:16:17 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 30, 2020, 01:14:49 PM
My inlaws sure as shit should have stayed locked in their house.  They engaged in risky behavior, and unsurprisingly, they caught it.  I think they'd definitely choose a different path if they had to do it again.  I'm using it as a cautionary tale for my own parents, but they've been less risky all along so I'm not as worried about them.


how are your inlaws doing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 30, 2020, 01:30:04 PM
I didn’t take Mdots post that way. 

I think he was pointing out, as he has in the past, that counting somebody with stage four cancer who is on their way to death pretty quickly anyway.  

The Covid death count is probably exaggerated if you take that point of view
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on July 30, 2020, 01:30:09 PM
Ideally you should ensure your staff isn't sending out BS conspiracy theories about something less than 24 hours before it kills you

https://twitter.com/THEHermanCain/status/1288521930782330883?s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 30, 2020, 01:32:59 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 30, 2020, 01:30:04 PM
I didn’t take Mdots post that way.

I think he was pointing out, as he has in the past, that counting somebody with stage four cancer who is on their way to death pretty quickly anyway. 

The Covid death count is probably exaggerated if you take that point of view
?? But that was 14 years ago
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 30, 2020, 01:33:29 PM
Quote from: ELA on July 30, 2020, 01:30:09 PM
Ideally you should ensure your staff isn't sending out BS conspiracy theories about something less than 24 hours before it kills you

https://twitter.com/THEHermanCain/status/1288521930782330883?s=19

You have to respect the commitment to the cause though
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 30, 2020, 01:48:13 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 29, 2020, 09:57:05 PM
School boards are in a pickle, I think.  They are elected officials, so they are at least somewhat responsive to public opinion. And they've got some parents saying they'll be damned if they'll let their kids wear masks and other parents saying that they don't want their kids in school (a.k.a. Coronavirus Heaven) until the pandemic is over.
As I think I posted upthread, I don't see how we go for very long--like less than a month--before we start getting a few positives and contract tracing demonstrates that nearly everyone in the building has been exposed.
What then?
In Chicago, the entire school board is appointed by the mayor.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on July 30, 2020, 01:55:05 PM
Quote from: ELA on July 30, 2020, 01:30:09 PM
Ideally you should ensure your staff isn't sending out BS conspiracy theories about something less than 24 hours before it kills you

https://twitter.com/THEHermanCain/status/1288521930782330883?s=19

Hmm. I didn’t really take that as conspiracy theory BS.  It was just a poll of Americans who would be willing to be first in line for a COVID vaccine.  I’m not sure I’d be at the front of that line myself.  And I’m not anti-vaccine and I know COVID isn’t some made up hoax.  I’d just like to see how people respond to it long term before I roll up my sleeve.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on July 30, 2020, 01:57:02 PM
So apparently Fauci suggested wearing goggles wouldn’t be a bad idea.

Look, I’ve been a good sport about the masks. I ain’t wearing f***ing goggles.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 30, 2020, 02:00:58 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on July 30, 2020, 01:33:29 PM
You have to respect the commitment to the cause though
Yes.  The ant government cause.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 30, 2020, 02:01:20 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 30, 2020, 01:16:17 PM
how are your inlaws doing
Doing ok, thanks for asking.  Their symptoms don't seem to include any of the respiratory/lung/pneumonia symptoms, so it doesn't look like any hospital trips are in order.  They still have plenty of GI issues as well as fatigue.  They've barely eaten anything for the past 2 weeks.  My wife is making homemade soups and smoothies and dropping them off every day before work, and also getting them whatever else they need, which isn't much, since they're just not eating.  I don't think they're necessarily improving since we first found out about all this a week ago, but they're not getting worse, either.  Which I guess is a good sign.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 30, 2020, 02:01:25 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on July 30, 2020, 01:57:02 PM
So apparently Fauci suggested wearing goggles wouldn’t be a bad idea.

Look, I’ve been a good sport about the masks. I ain’t wearing f***ing goggles.
Yeah... no. I do wear my sunglasses when I go into stores though. Fog and all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 30, 2020, 02:04:40 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 30, 2020, 02:01:25 PM
Yeah... no. I do wear my sunglasses when I go into stores though. Fog and all.
Yup I wear my sunglasses inside.  And also at night.  Corey Hart would be so proud.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 30, 2020, 02:18:49 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 30, 2020, 02:01:20 PM
Doing ok, thanks for asking.  Their symptoms don't seem to include any of the respiratory/lung/pneumonia symptoms, so it doesn't look like any hospital trips are in order.  They still have plenty of GI issues as well as fatigue.  They've barely eaten anything for the past 2 weeks.  My wife is making homemade soups and smoothies and dropping them off every day before work, and also getting them whatever else they need, which isn't much, since they're just not eating.  I don't think they're necessarily improving since we first found out about all this a week ago, but they're not getting worse, either.  Which I guess is a good sign.
Its not unusual for older folks not to eat

You might try getting them a nutrition drink like Ensure which is sold in most grocery stores

Ive had them myself and they aint bad
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 30, 2020, 02:23:07 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 30, 2020, 02:18:49 PM
Its not unusual for older folks not to eat

You might try getting them a nutrition drink like Ensure which is sold in most grocery stores

Ive had them myself and they aint bad
Pedialite popsicles are good too. Used those when I had my throat surgery a few years ago.

My Ma liked Glucerna shakes the best, in her waning months. Said they had the best flavor and made her feel good.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 30, 2020, 02:39:00 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 30, 2020, 02:18:49 PM
Its not unusual for older folks not to eat

You might try getting them a nutrition drink like Ensure which is sold in most grocery stores

Ive had them myself and they aint bad
how the hell old are you?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 30, 2020, 02:39:39 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on July 30, 2020, 01:57:02 PM
So apparently Fauci suggested wearing goggles wouldn’t be a bad idea.

Look, I’ve been a good sport about the masks. I ain’t wearing f***ing goggles.
just stay in the house
after you stock up on toilet paper
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 30, 2020, 02:40:57 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 30, 2020, 02:23:07 PM
Pedialite popsicles are good too. Used those when I had my throat surgery a few years ago.

My Ma liked Glucerna shakes the best, in her waning months. Said they had the best flavor and made her feel good.


that brought back a particular fond memory

when my daughter was around 3 years old she was running a fever that was not real high but wouldnt go away

so that night  I sat her on my lap and fed her a cherry popsicle

she thought she had died and gone to heaven

shortly afterward her temp was back to normal and to bed she went

funny how some things just stick in your memory
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 30, 2020, 02:42:32 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 30, 2020, 02:39:00 PM
how the hell old are you?
me and Abraham Lincoln were on a first name basis
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 30, 2020, 02:44:17 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 30, 2020, 02:04:40 PM
Yup I wear my sunglasses inside.  And also at night.  Corey Hart would be so proud.
you look SO good in them!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 30, 2020, 03:09:39 PM
MADISON, Wis. (AP) — Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers on Thursday issued a statewide mask mandate amid a spike in coronavirus cases, setting up a conflict with Republican legislative leaders who oppose such a requirement and successfully sued earlier to kill a “safer at home” order.

The Democrat Evers declared a new public health emergency, after his initial one expired in May, and ordered the wearing of masks for anyone age 5 and up starting on Saturday for all enclosed spaces except a person’s home. The new order also applies to outdoor bars and restaurants, except when people are eating or drinking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 30, 2020, 03:21:23 PM
Most people in my area were wearing them anyway. This is to combat the hotspots - Milwaukee and Madison.

Protest have nothing to do with the spikes though. Really.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 30, 2020, 03:36:09 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 30, 2020, 02:18:49 PM
Its not unusual for older folks not to eat

You might try getting them a nutrition drink like Ensure which is sold in most grocery stores

Ive had them myself and they aint bad
Thanks.  They typically don't eat a lot.  But right now they're not eating at all.

Other than the smoothies that my wife is taking them, and some of the soup.  We've also delivered them Ensure, pedialite, and Gatorade.  They're just not eating/drinking much of it. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 30, 2020, 03:36:44 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 30, 2020, 02:44:17 PM
you look SO good in them!
Are you hitting on me?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on July 30, 2020, 04:02:46 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on July 30, 2020, 10:55:43 AM
Yeah, I guess people like Herman Cain are expendable.

3/4 of people who recover have persistent heart damage.

https://people.com/health/three-quarters-recovered-coronavirus-patients-have-heart-damage-months-later/?utm_source=emailshare&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email-share-article&utm_content=20200730 (https://people.com/health/three-quarters-recovered-coronavirus-patients-have-heart-damage-months-later/?utm_source=emailshare&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email-share-article&utm_content=20200730)
Never said they were expendable. 

And that isn’t a study. It’s a joke. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 30, 2020, 04:04:18 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 30, 2020, 03:36:44 PM
Are you hitting on me?
no, simply an observation
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on July 30, 2020, 04:04:31 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 30, 2020, 12:16:27 PM
Based on his past posts, it seems the olds and fats/uglies should lock themselves in their houses so the young and skinny people can just get on with their lives.

I hope that's merely hyperbole...
It’s not hyperbole. If you are high risk, stay your ass at home. 

We can’t tank the world economy and go into a Great Depression bc of these people. They can stay inside and safe, while the young and reasonably healthy continue with their lives.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 30, 2020, 06:41:01 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 30, 2020, 12:37:52 PM
apparently, Herman Cain wasn't locked in his house.
wonder what his source of contact was?
I would bet he picked it up at the Trump rally in Tulsa, where he was amongst the unmasked faithful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on July 30, 2020, 06:47:14 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on July 30, 2020, 04:02:46 PM
Never said they were expendable.

And that isn’t a study. It’s a joke.
Seriously, your comments about those who have died are open to reasonable inferences that you think that their deaths are no big deal.  Nothing we should go out of our way to prevent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 30, 2020, 11:02:53 PM
See?  They ARE out there!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 30, 2020, 11:24:07 PM
(R) Congressman contracts Covid-19, rarely wore a mask.  Actually tries to blame it on wearing a mask.  

These are the types being voted into office.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on July 31, 2020, 12:56:59 AM
the House is full of the some of the worst types of people in this country.  I could get myself banned w a rant on a couple of them based on their behavior this week at a hearing, but let's not do this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 31, 2020, 05:32:40 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 30, 2020, 11:24:07 PM
(R) Congressman contracts Covid-19, rarely wore a mask.  Actually tries to blame it on wearing a mask. 

These are the types being voted into office. 
Just can’t help yourself can you?

after listening to the douchebag former POTUS speak lie after lie yesterday, while using a mans funeral to deliver a political message and attacking police, it reinforced for me just how slimy and dishonest he is. The most divisive race baiting words come from his mouth- yet he was elected twice.  It runs both ways. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 31, 2020, 07:49:53 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 31, 2020, 05:32:40 AM
Just can’t help yourself can you?

after listening to the douchebag former POTUS speak lie after lie yesterday, while using a mans funeral to deliver a political message and attacking police, it reinforced for me just how slimy and dishonest he is. The most divisive race baiting words come from his mouth- yet he was elected twice.  It runs both ways.
(https://i.imgur.com/Uaz5Ahy.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 31, 2020, 09:08:40 AM
Quote from: MarqHusker on July 31, 2020, 12:56:59 AM
the House is full of the some of the worst types of people in this country.  I could get myself banned w a rant on a couple of them based on their behavior this week at a hearing, but let's not do this.
Not on this thread, but the stream is open. I noticed that too. Despicable. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on July 31, 2020, 09:14:19 AM
Quote from: utee94 on July 30, 2020, 03:36:44 PM
Are you hitting on me?
Of course not you're married he's not that crass - I think
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on July 31, 2020, 09:42:21 AM
I've been on vacation for the past week... not sure if this was posted, but wanted to share:   https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916 (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on July 31, 2020, 09:51:04 AM
basically, the study in Germany looked at 100 COVID patients and compared their heart exams before and after infection.  78 of them showed heart damage to some degree... and not all were hospitalized.

There could be selection bias and I wouldn't say this study is without fault, but it should warrant more study.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on July 31, 2020, 10:11:40 AM
Minnesota is leaving decisions to districts, but gave out guidance on when and how to proceed. Basically, a 14-day countywide rolling average of confirmed new cases determines how much students are in the building. Anywhere from everyone is in, to various hybrids of distance and in-person, to everyone's distant. Masks/face coverings anytime in the building.

Details are sufficiently gritty that it was hard to fully explain in yesterday's presser, but it seems like a decent attempt to thread the needle between the need for kids to be in school and the fact that kids catch and spread the virus just as much as adults do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 31, 2020, 10:23:28 AM
Teachers are generally scared, and I don't blame them. 

Parents are scared too, in two ways. 

One, is the kid going to catch it and bring it home. Two, what happens to the kid's learning - especially those with special needs - if it's all online?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 31, 2020, 10:28:37 AM
Quote from: Entropy on July 31, 2020, 09:51:04 AM
basically, they a study in Germany looked at 100 COVID patients and compared their heart exams before and after infection.  78 of them showed heart damage to some degree... and not all were hospitalized.

There could be selection bias and I wouldn't say this study is without fault, but it should warrant more study.

I wonder if the heart damage associated with CHQ usage might actually be just this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 31, 2020, 10:37:15 AM
Quote from: Entropy on July 31, 2020, 09:51:04 AM
basically, they a study in Germany looked at 100 COVID patients and compared their heart exams before and after infection.  78 of them showed heart damage to some degree... and not all were hospitalized.

There could be selection bias and I wouldn't say this study is without fault, but it should warrant more study.
I couldnt agree more

Its unfortunate that the doctors in the article didnt feel that way before they made a blanket statement that the virus damages the hearts of 75% of the positive folks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on July 31, 2020, 10:40:35 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 31, 2020, 10:23:28 AM
Teachers are generally scared, and I don't blame them.

Parents are scared too, in two ways.

One, is the kid going to catch it and bring it home. Two, what happens to the kid's learning - especially those with special needs - if it's all online?
Every teacher I know is absolutely petrified at the prospect of going back to the classroom. 

A good friend of my wife is a special ed teacher in Massachusetts. The district is buying her a hazmat suit, as she will be in person 5 days a week. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 31, 2020, 11:13:02 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 31, 2020, 10:37:15 AM
I couldnt agree more

Its unfortunate that the doctors in the article didnt feel that way before they made a blanket statement that the virus damages the hearts of 75% of the positive folks
They didn't make a blanket statement.

They basically said "here's what we did, here's what we found, and this points to the need to study this further."

If you read the article @Entropy (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1559) posted, it never made a prediction that these findings will be universal in future studies. They didn't make any forward-looking statements beyond this suggesting there's a need for more investigation.

Now, dumb journalists might have not realized the distinction, but don't blame the doctors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 31, 2020, 11:22:56 AM
I take it as almost certain that ANY journalistic report on ANY topic technical will be misleading and even completely false.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 31, 2020, 11:32:07 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on July 31, 2020, 07:49:53 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/Uaz5Ahy.png)
Swing and a miss. Nice try though, and thanks for playing.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 31, 2020, 11:39:29 AM
Not so easy to get a covid test.  

My better half showing lots of symptoms- aches, chills, fever, nausea.  

Been trying to line one up for 3 days.  

CVS locations all just say” we apologize, we were unable to fulfill your request” no matter which location or time I choose. 

Several local clinics advertise they have testing but once you complete the online form they say you are registered and for convenience they will contact you.  But none of those local clinics have returned the contact  after 3 days. 

I have called the 2 local hospitals and they say you need a referral and an appointment, but she doesn’t have a local doctor and nobody is taking new patients. 

I guess there is not much they can do anyway so we are just quarantining her anyway.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 31, 2020, 11:45:54 AM
Good luck, @Honestbuckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=37) -- hope your better half recovers well and you avoid any symptoms yourself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 31, 2020, 11:47:23 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 31, 2020, 11:45:54 AM
Good luck, @Honestbuckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=37) -- hope your better half recovers well and you avoid any symptoms yourself.
Thanks.  She is already improving. She is “quite a bit” younger than me. 😬
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 31, 2020, 11:51:27 AM
The ease of getting a test varies by location.  The wife was tested Wednesday, she said there was one car in line ahead of her.  Results back today negative.

This was a no appointment test site north of us, drive in.  She was there about 8:30 AM.  I'm going Wednesday.

She said it was unpleasant, I'm told it helps if you tilt your head far back and don't come forward when they probe you brain to insert the microchip.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on July 31, 2020, 11:57:41 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 31, 2020, 11:39:29 AM
Not so easy to get a covid test. 

My better half showing lots of symptoms- aches, chills, fever, nausea. 

Been trying to line one up for 3 days. 

CVS locations all just say” we apologize, we were unable to fulfill your request” no matter which location or time I choose.

Several local clinics advertise they have testing but once you complete the online form they say you are registered and for convenience they will contact you.  But none of those local clinics have returned the contact  after 3 days.

I have called the 2 local hospitals and they say you need a referral and an appointment, but she doesn’t have a local doctor and nobody is taking new patients.

I guess there is not much they can do anyway so we are just quarantining her anyway. 
Really? That’s strange. My wife runs a healthcare clinic down here. Anybody can call there and request a test and they will set you up an appointment usually within 24-48 hours.  My daughter plays travel softball and we had to get all the kids tested a couple of weeks ago because  we had potential exposure at a tournament.  Most of the team went to the clinic over a 2-3 day period and all of us got tested.

And it wasn’t a situation where my wife pulled strings to get it done either.  It’s just standard for whoever wants tested.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on July 31, 2020, 12:02:19 PM
A friend couldn't find a place to get his daughter tested here in KC... drove an hour north to St. Joe's and was tested immediately.   It's spotty..
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 31, 2020, 12:02:33 PM
It is a thing that will vary a lot by location.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 31, 2020, 12:03:15 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 31, 2020, 11:39:29 AM
Not so easy to get a covid test. 

My better half showing lots of symptoms- aches, chills, fever, nausea. 

Been trying to line one up for 3 days. 

CVS locations all just say” we apologize, we were unable to fulfill your request” no matter which location or time I choose.

Several local clinics advertise they have testing but once you complete the online form they say you are registered and for convenience they will contact you.  But none of those local clinics have returned the contact  after 3 days.

I have called the 2 local hospitals and they say you need a referral and an appointment, but she doesn’t have a local doctor and nobody is taking new patients.

I guess there is not much they can do anyway so we are just quarantining her anyway. 
First of all, good luck.

Second, make an appointment with her primary care doctor. She'll be tested immediately. If you can't do that, drive 2 hours to the other side. Piece of cake getting tested by us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 31, 2020, 12:03:37 PM
It's definitely varying geographically.  I think HB is in Florida, right?

Here in Austin it's pretty easy to get a test.  My inlaws each got tested same-day they called for a testing appointment, that was last Friday, and they even had their (positive) results back that night.  So about 9 hours from first contact to test result. My wife got one on Monday because she had a very short exposure to the her parents before they knew they were positive, only ten minutes with them but she went into their house.  Maybe 2 hours from first call to test, and she got the results back (negative) within 48 hours.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 31, 2020, 12:09:30 PM
Yes- Southeast Florida. 

Tried CVS- worked this time. Got her a test for this afternoon.  Results are 10-14 days they tell us.  😣
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 31, 2020, 12:11:10 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 31, 2020, 11:47:23 AM
Thanks.  She is already improving. She is “quite a bit” younger than me. 😬
I would expect nothing less you dog
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 31, 2020, 12:12:03 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on July 31, 2020, 11:57:41 AM
Really? That’s strange. My wife runs a healthcare clinic down here. Anybody can call there and request a test and they will set you up an appointment usually within 24-48 hours.  My daughter plays travel softball and we had to get all the kids tested a couple of weeks ago because  we had potential exposure at a tournament.  Most of the team went to the clinic over a 2-3 day period and all of us got tested.

And it wasn’t a situation where my wife pulled strings to get it done either.  It’s just standard for whoever wants tested.

That’s so much better.  Here- they won’t let you even do it by phone.  Every clinic I called within a 20 mile radius basically said you have to go and register online and we will contact you so I did three of them and have not been contacted by one of them yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 31, 2020, 12:12:58 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 31, 2020, 12:11:10 PM
I would expect nothing less you dog
😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 31, 2020, 12:33:19 PM
Hang in there HB.  I hope she gets better soon, and that you remain symptom-free.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 31, 2020, 01:44:32 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 31, 2020, 12:33:19 PM
Hang in there HB.  I hope she gets better soon, and that you remain symptom-free.

Thanks Utee.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on August 01, 2020, 01:36:59 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 31, 2020, 12:12:03 PM
That’s so much better.  Here- they won’t let you even do it by phone.  Every clinic I called within a 20 mile radius basically said you have to go and register online and we will contact you so I did three of them and have not been contacted by one of them yet.
Best wishes. Ten-days for a test result is unacceptable. I have read that primary caregiver tests give fairly quick results. Hospital tests are fastest, but are reserved for sicker patients. It may be tiresome but explore options.
The good news is women tend to recover better than men. Take precautions. I am old enough that if someone in my household gets sick, either the rest of us go to a hotel, or the sick one goes to a hotel and we deliver food. At least that's the plan.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 01, 2020, 01:42:07 AM
Two guys posted the following on the only other MB I post on, a private OU board.  The first one has a fraternity brother who is a doctor in IIRC the Kansas City area, so he's pretty much up on at least the gist of what's going on where the rubber meets the road.  The second one is an ICU nurse.


First Guy: _____ - would you comment on what I’m going to post.  It’s from a gal in Joplin that I went to school with and it is from her sister who is a nurse at one of the hospitals there:

In the COVID ICU we use medications like vecuronium to completely paralyze your muscles so we can control every aspect of your breathing. So now you are paralyzed but we don't want you paralyzed while alert and awake, that would be inhumane. So we add at least 2 sedation medications. One is usually propofol (the one linked to Michael Jackson's death) and the other is fentanyl (the one linked to so many opioid overdose deaths). Of note, all these medications usually go on an IV, but not on your arm like they would do in the emergency room, we put IVs right into your jugular. But hey, all this sedation also lowers your blood pressure and you need an adequate pressure for blood to reach your vital organs, like your kidneys, you don't want kidney failure. So now you are on another medication called levophed to keep your blood pressure up. But being on all these medications while completely unable to move and with a tube down your throat... where do you get your nutrition from? So we put another tube down into your stomach, we put another tube in your urethra to make sure you are urinating, the tube feedings and antibiotics cause diarrhea so we put a tube in your rectum to further protect skin and prevent infections. Meanwhile your muscles are wasting away from being paralyzed, you are at an insanely high risk of infection because of all these tubes and IVs in places where they don't belong, your skin can breakdown due to prolonged contact pressure from being paralyzed, and you can develop heart rhythm irregularities as side effects of these medications, which now puts you at an increased risk of cardiac arrest and dying.


So when you are bitching about having to wear a mask, think of these patients I take care of. Already battling  #covid19 with a pair of sick lungs, completely paralyzed, alone, sedated and fighting for their lives. #wearamask

2nd Guy: Pretty much spot on. I worked a three-week crisis travel contract in a COVID-ICU at Houston Methodist back in late March/early April. It was an eye-opener to be sure. I’ve never seen so much death in one place. With no known effective treatments for the virus, these critically ill patients just don’t get any better. They’re intubated for weeks at a time. Yes, we used paralytics, especially in the worst pulmonary cases where they were repeatedly proned on their stomachs in an attempt to build recruitment of the pulmonary alveoli. Our drug of choice was Nimbex, but Rocuronium would work, too. You can’t paralyze patients without sedating them - it’s inhumane - so we’d place the patiencs on IV Propofol drips, Fentanyl drips, Precedex drips, even Ketamine drips in those patients that were the most difficult to achieve adequate sedation. ICU psychosis is a real thing, especially in sedated patients, and the long-term psychological effects of long-term intubation/sedation in COVID patients are just now being realized. These patients are fucked up. No family members are allowed in the rooms. Normal mechanisms for orienting these patients just aren’t available in a COVID ICU. Not to mention all the healthcare workers are esssntially dressed like stormtroopers with all their PPE. I can only imagine how scary that must be for the patientr. Yes, while the patients are intubated they can’t eat or drink, so a nasogastric or orogastric tube is inserted down into the patients’ stomachs and tube feeding and medications are given through these tubes. Weeks of inactivity causes severe muscle atrophy, so even if these patients survive (which isn’t often - mortality rates in intubated COVID patients range from 50 to as high as 90% at the worst of the NYC crisis back in April), these patients are weak and immunocompromised and at risk of succumbing to myriads of associated health conditions. COVID attacks the heart and cam cause extreme heart failure, to the extent that these patients are sometimes placed on ECMO, which is basically like a giant bypass machine that pumps blood through the body when the heart is unable to do its job. The catheters through which blood exits and enters the body required for ECMO are the size of large drinking straws. These are the most extreme cases and they’re almost certain to die if ECMO is necessary. Long-term pulmonary failure eventually impairs the kidneys, so these patients go into renal failure and can require continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT), which is essentially continuous dialysis. These COVID units are a hell on earth, where all nurses, physicians, physicians assistants, nurse practitioners, respiratory therapists, nurse techs, etc. are scared to death or contracting the virus. The mental and emotional toll of seeing all that death and basically being unable to help anyone is immeasurable. I drove home from Houston to Oklahoma and, completely exhausted from 60-70 hour work weeks, I missed speed limit signs in a small town about 30 minutes from home and got pulled over by local police. I was so emotionally strung-out that this was the tipping point and I just started bawling as the officer made his way to my car. I managed to explain what was going on and the officer asked if I had emotional support at the destination to which I was traveling (I was going home to see my fiancée) and he let me go without so much as a warning. About all I was able to say to him was to just repeat “so much death” over and over. I’m sure I was a sight to see. So if anyone ever tries to tell you that COVID is some kind of hoax, just remember my words here. It’s real, it’s terrible, and it’s the worst thing I’ve ever seen in 11 years of ICU nursing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on August 01, 2020, 02:34:49 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 01, 2020, 01:42:07 AM
Two guys posted the following on the only other MB I post on, a private OU board.  The first one has a fraternity brother who is a doctor in IIRC the Kansas City area, so he's pretty much up on at least the gist of what's going on where the rubber meets the road.  The second one is an ICU nurse.


First Guy: _____ - would you comment on what I’m going to post.  It’s from a gal in Joplin that I went to school with and it is from her sister who is a nurse at one of the hospitals there:

In the COVID ICU we use medications like vecuronium to completely paralyze your muscles so we can control every aspect of your breathing. So now you are paralyzed but we don't want you paralyzed while alert and awake, that would be inhumane. So we add at least 2 sedation medications. One is usually propofol (the one linked to Michael Jackson's death) and the other is fentanyl (the one linked to so many opioid overdose deaths). Of note, all these medications usually go on an IV, but not on your arm like they would do in the emergency room, we put IVs right into your jugular. But hey, all this sedation also lowers your blood pressure and you need an adequate pressure for blood to reach your vital organs, like your kidneys, you don't want kidney failure. So now you are on another medication called levophed to keep your blood pressure up. But being on all these medications while completely unable to move and with a tube down your throat... where do you get your nutrition from? So we put another tube down into your stomach, we put another tube in your urethra to make sure you are urinating, the tube feedings and antibiotics cause diarrhea so we put a tube in your rectum to further protect skin and prevent infections. Meanwhile your muscles are wasting away from being paralyzed, you are at an insanely high risk of infection because of all these tubes and IVs in places where they don't belong, your skin can breakdown due to prolonged contact pressure from being paralyzed, and you can develop heart rhythm irregularities as side effects of these medications, which now puts you at an increased risk of cardiac arrest and dying.


So when you are bitching about having to wear a mask, think of these patients I take care of. Already battling  #covid19 with a pair of sick lungs, completely paralyzed, alone, sedated and fighting for their lives. #wearamask

2nd Guy: Pretty much spot on. I worked a three-week crisis travel contract in a COVID-ICU at Houston Methodist back in late March/early April. It was an eye-opener to be sure. I’ve never seen so much death in one place. With no known effective treatments for the virus, these critically ill patients just don’t get any better. They’re intubated for weeks at a time. Yes, we used paralytics, especially in the worst pulmonary cases where they were repeatedly proned on their stomachs in an attempt to build recruitment of the pulmonary alveoli. Our drug of choice was Nimbex, but Rocuronium would work, too. You can’t paralyze patients without sedating them - it’s inhumane - so we’d place the patiencs on IV Propofol drips, Fentanyl drips, Precedex drips, even Ketamine drips in those patients that were the most difficult to achieve adequate sedation. ICU psychosis is a real thing, especially in sedated patients, and the long-term psychological effects of long-term intubation/sedation in COVID patients are just now being realized. These patients are fucked up. No family members are allowed in the rooms. Normal mechanisms for orienting these patients just aren’t available in a COVID ICU. Not to mention all the healthcare workers are esssntially dressed like stormtroopers with all their PPE. I can only imagine how scary that must be for the patientr. Yes, while the patients are intubated they can’t eat or drink, so a nasogastric or orogastric tube is inserted down into the patients’ stomachs and tube feeding and medications are given through these tubes. Weeks of inactivity causes severe muscle atrophy, so even if these patients survive (which isn’t often - mortality rates in intubated COVID patients range from 50 to as high as 90% at the worst of the NYC crisis back in April), these patients are weak and immunocompromised and at risk of succumbing to myriads of associated health conditions. COVID attacks the heart and cam cause extreme heart failure, to the extent that these patients are sometimes placed on ECMO, which is basically like a giant bypass machine that pumps blood through the body when the heart is unable to do its job. The catheters through which blood exits and enters the body required for ECMO are the size of large drinking straws. These are the most extreme cases and they’re almost certain to die if ECMO is necessary. Long-term pulmonary failure eventually impairs the kidneys, so these patients go into renal failure and can require continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT), which is essentially continuous dialysis. These COVID units are a hell on earth, where all nurses, physicians, physicians assistants, nurse practitioners, respiratory therapists, nurse techs, etc. are scared to death or contracting the virus. The mental and emotional toll of seeing all that death and basically being unable to help anyone is immeasurable. I drove home from Houston to Oklahoma and, completely exhausted from 60-70 hour work weeks, I missed speed limit signs in a small town about 30 minutes from home and got pulled over by local police. I was so emotionally strung-out that this was the tipping point and I just started bawling as the officer made his way to my car. I managed to explain what was going on and the officer asked if I had emotional support at the destination to which I was traveling (I was going home to see my fiancée) and he let me go without so much as a warning. About all I was able to say to him was to just repeat “so much death” over and over. I’m sure I was a sight to see. So if anyone ever tries to tell you that COVID is some kind of hoax, just remember my words here. It’s real, it’s terrible, and it’s the worst thing I’ve ever seen in 11 years of ICU nursing.
Today on the front page of the Dubuque Telegraph Herald was a story that Dubuque County and the State of Iowa is in a White House report "red zone." I knew I had to do more for my one-man law office. I called the local hardware store at 8:15 a.m. Friday, and asked that they cut a plastic shield I could hang above the front counter for my secretary where she greets clients.
Dubuque has had a surge. I am in an adjoining rural county, and while it is better here, it is circulating somewhat.
I had someone who works inside a meatpacking plant 45-miles from here today. The plant has been on the national news, and has had five-deaths from COVID-19. This person was very respectful of the risks; all of us wore masks.
Two days ago I was at a grocery, and about 20% of the customers had masks. We have a Wal-Mart Super Center, and I am beginning to wonder if the people unwilling to wear masks, after Wal-Mart required masks, are now grocery shopping at Fareway Stores, an Iowa chain of grocery stores, that does not require customers wear masks.
If we want kids and college students to go to school (it's probably too late), we need to take all the precautions. This is already heating up. This is going to really heat up when school starts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 01, 2020, 03:31:14 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 31, 2020, 12:03:15 PM
 Piece of cake getting tested by us.
We know.

But it's not like that everywhere.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 01, 2020, 06:33:43 AM
Not sure if they (CVS) were just overwhelmed or there was a problem with their website- but in addition to getting her a test yesterday, I jumped on this morning and easily scheduled one for myself today.  Choice of times. 

When she got hers yesterday they told her 5 days for results, although the website says 6-14, and local people I have spoken to said it took 2 weeks.  So... we will see. 

She is much improved today- eating and running around the house cleaning like there’s no tomorrow 😊
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 01, 2020, 06:47:16 AM
Georgia has leveled off on new cases for about two weeks now.  The reported deaths had started to move up consistent with about the 3 week delay over cases moving up.  The state is running about 4,000 newly reported cases and 40-80 deaths per day.

I'm not sure why the new case figure leveled off other than folks saw the news and took greater care about it.  They reopened some of the temp hospitals recently, probably a good idea.  I think those areas would be used for patients still needing hospitalization care but are recovering and out of danger.

IF the state manages to level off, even at this high level, that is better than what I feared might happen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on August 01, 2020, 06:07:16 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 01, 2020, 06:33:43 AM


She is much improved today- eating and running around the house cleaning like there’s no tomorrow 😊
You gotta love her for that, but when I re-read this sentence, it is sort of cryptic. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 01, 2020, 07:37:14 PM
Quote from: Hawkinole on August 01, 2020, 06:07:16 PM
You gotta love her for that, but when I re-read this sentence, it is sort of cryptic.
😳😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 09:19:01 AM
So, Sweden is perhaps signaling a message that some of us are immune/resistant, perhaps as much as half the population.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 02, 2020, 10:18:18 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 09:19:01 AM
So, Sweden is perhaps signaling a message that some of us are immune/resistant, perhaps as much as half the population.


I am wondering about this.

if the Mrs.’s test doesn’t not come back positive I will be shocked.  She is up and down but can’t break the fever for going on 6 Days now. 

It would be nearly impossible for Her to have it and not me.  We are in close contact obviously
but for me, at most ( knock on wood) I am close to asymptomatic- maybe occasional symptoms of a mild cold.

thinking about the incubation period which is 5 to 10 days we’re trying to figure out how or where either of us could have contacted it. Masks 100% of the time when we leave the house and the only exception was her getting her teeth cleaned at the dentist but everybody else around her was marrying a mask.    She has shopped in Publix and Walmart a number of times but again masks are required so who knows. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 10:23:38 AM
A mask isn't going to keep you from contracting it, it could reduce the chances by 5% or so.

It's obviously highly contagious so you could pick it up unknowlingly in an innocent situation, as could we all.  I just can't figure how countries and states are leveling off with such a low percentage of people infected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2020, 12:04:24 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 09:19:01 AM
So, Sweden is perhaps signaling a message that some of us are immune/resistant, perhaps as much as half the population.


I think it's very possible that half of the US has had it already.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 02, 2020, 12:13:51 PM

If your pants cannot contain a fart, then your mask isn't going to be able to protect you from the much smaller virus particles. 

It helps a little, but it is hardly a force field. The ones they are selling to the public aren't even medical grade. Basically the hands free version of holding your shirt up over your mouth and nose. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2020, 12:25:44 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 01, 2020, 06:33:43 AM
Not sure if they (CVS) were just overwhelmed or there was a problem with their website- but in addition to getting her a test yesterday, I jumped on this morning and easily scheduled one for myself today.  Choice of times.

When she got hers yesterday they told her 5 days for results, although the website says 6-14, and local people I have spoken to said it took 2 weeks.  So... we will see.

She is much improved today- eating and running around the house cleaning like there’s no tomorrow 😊
You might need to log onto the CVS MyChart to get your results, FYI. CVS had told me to expect an email, but that never came.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2020, 12:29:07 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 10:23:38 AM
A mask isn't going to keep you from contracting it, it could reduce the chances by 5% or so.

It's obviously highly contagious so you could pick it up unknowlingly in an innocent situation, as could we all.  I just can't figure how countries and states are leveling off with such a low percentage of people infected.
I've heard other speculation that a mask can entirely prevent it - depending on the mask. The Dock Doc thinks it's about 50 percent for the general public, and also thinks the homemade varieties published by various folks online are better than the "surgical" masks being sold in stores.

The ones my wife made have layers. That's what we wear.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 02, 2020, 12:47:45 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2020, 12:04:24 PM
I think it's very possible that half of the US has had it already.
so we may be getting closer to the 70% herd immunity?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 02, 2020, 12:58:30 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2020, 12:04:24 PM
I think it's very possible that half of the US has had it already.
Based on what evidence?

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 02, 2020, 12:13:51 PM
If your pants cannot contain a fart, then your mask isn't going to be able to protect you from the much smaller virus particles.

It helps a little, but it is hardly a force field. The ones they are selling to the public aren't even medical grade. Basically the hands free version of holding your shirt up over your mouth and nose.
Again, the mask doesn't make you "safe" in that it entirely prevents you from getting it. 

The virus particles are mostly carried by droplets from coughing/sneezing and aerosolized from general exhaling and talking. The mask will catch most of those leaving your mouth, reducing the likelihood of spreading to another person. As far as protecting you from the virus, the mask will help to catch some of those droplets or aerosols, but I worry that if you catch virus on your mask, your normal breathing might pull it in. Still better than no mask, but capturing it at the source is more important than capturing it at the destination to reduce the spread. 

But the idea of the mask is much more simple. It reduces transmission, hopefully allowing us to get to an R0 of <1, while still being able to go out in public and not all be on lockdown. The higher the rate of mask usage, the better we get as a society of getting R0 down. Even if the mask only reduces the likelihood of transmission within a specific encounter of 15%, the aggregate of doing that across society helps us get to an R0 of <1. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 01:27:37 PM
I don't think anything like half of us have had it.  I am beginning to suspect half of us have had something similar to it, and our immune system responds very quickly to it.  Otherwise, Sweden would be a total disaster, and they aren't, not even close.

I can't explain that otherwise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2020, 02:25:47 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 02, 2020, 12:58:30 PM
Based on what evidence?
 
Just typing out loud. I look around and see people out and about, and wonder why we don't have many more cases than we do, given how contagious it is. And I read stuff, like I read this morning, which popped up on my home page (from a CNN article on MSN).


https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0389-z


 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0389-z)https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30610-3.pdf


 (https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30610-3.pdf)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 02, 2020, 02:46:00 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2020, 02:25:47 PM
Just typing out loud. I look around and see people out and about, and wonder why we don't have many more cases than we do, given how contagious it is. And I read stuff, like I read this morning, which popped up on my home page (from a CNN article on MSN).


https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0389-z


 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0389-z)https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30610-3.pdf


 (https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30610-3.pdf)
Read that as well.  I have no answers- only questions??

the Mrs. can only go an hour or so without going back to bed.  Very fatigued especially for a slender, otherwise healthy person.  Seems to get a little better each day.

Then there is me, 59 year old, healthy and close to my ideal weight for being 6’3.  No issues.
Of course/ I am assuming both our tests come back positive. 
and yes BADGE- results only come back on MyChart app- which I already had. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 02:49:32 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/qxo67dM.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on August 02, 2020, 02:58:46 PM
The way I understand it is that the idea behind everyone's masks is the same reason why there are big energy jumps at the bottom of a dam spillway: to disperse the energy of the outgoing fluid. The primary point of the masks is to knock down your own spit. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 03:17:30 PM
Yup, the virus is mostly carried by water droplets expelled from a person's mouth.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 02, 2020, 03:36:12 PM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/08/01/schools-reopening-coronavirus-arizona-superintendent/?arc404=true (https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/08/01/schools-reopening-coronavirus-arizona-superintendent/?arc404=true)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 02, 2020, 03:40:25 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 02, 2020, 03:36:12 PM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/08/01/schools-reopening-coronavirus-arizona-superintendent/?arc404=true (https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/08/01/schools-reopening-coronavirus-arizona-superintendent/?arc404=true)
requires a subscription
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 03:42:42 PM
So, we have learned this thing is highly contagious, I think everyone agrees.  It really should be ripping through the world like wildfire right now, but it seems to be abating except in places that recently "reopened".

I can see only one explanation for that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 02, 2020, 03:45:47 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 02, 2020, 03:40:25 PM
requires a subscription
Not for me.  Sorry.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 02, 2020, 03:46:19 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 03:17:30 PM
Yup, the virus is mostly carried by water droplets expelled from a person's mouth.


This was true in February and we still have people not wearing masks in August.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2020, 03:49:11 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 02, 2020, 03:46:19 PM
This was true in February and we still have people not wearing masks in August. 
This was true in October, more than likely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2020, 03:51:06 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 03:42:42 PM
So, we have learned this thing is highly contagious, I think everyone agrees.  It really should be ripping through the world like wildfire right now, but it seems to be abating except in places that recently "reopened".

I can see only one explanation for that.
There are lots of explanations.

How would you explain Wisconsin, which has been fully open since mid-May? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 03:53:28 PM
I can only think of one explanation that makes sense, to me.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2020, 03:54:18 PM
Please state same.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 03:56:55 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2020, 02:25:47 PM
Just typing out loud. I look around and see people out and about, and wonder why we don't have many more cases than we do, given how contagious it is. And I read stuff, like I read this morning, which popped up on my home page (from a CNN article on MSN).


https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0389-z


 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0389-z)https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30610-3.pdf


 (https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30610-3.pdf)
The Nature article.


I had been speculating here before I read that that many of us must have some latent resistance to this thing.  Otherwise, Sweden would be way under water by now.

The presumption was that this virus was facing zero resistance in humans, something core to the epidemiological models being used.  That can't be a fact, or so it appears.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 03:59:32 PM
It is possible some variant of this corona virus has been around for years, undetected.  Maybe "we" felt it was a bad cold (and maybe it was, same class).  Maybe we thought it was flu.  Maybe the symptoms were mild. 

But something went around before this to give many of us a good level of resistance to infection.

It might have been a molder version of this that got out because nobody really noticed they were sick.  I'm speculating.  Maybe it is/was zoonotic and was here last year, or the year before.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 04:10:37 PM
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/02/health/gupta-coronavirus-t-cell-cross-reactivity-immunity-wellness/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/02/health/gupta-coronavirus-t-cell-cross-reactivity-immunity-wellness/index.html)

If this is correct, we could be on the verge of "herd immunity", and opening up would be the correct path, while protecting the most vulnerable still.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2020, 04:16:56 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 04:10:37 PM
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/02/health/gupta-coronavirus-t-cell-cross-reactivity-immunity-wellness/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/02/health/gupta-coronavirus-t-cell-cross-reactivity-immunity-wellness/index.html)

If this is correct, we could be on the verge of "herd immunity", and opening up would be the correct path, while protecting the most vulnerable still.


I'm really starting to come around to this line of thinking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 04:20:37 PM
I can't come up with another plausible theory for what we're seeing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 05:03:44 PM
So, IF this is correct, what does it suggest out course should be?  Open everything up except "retirement homes"?

I dunno.  Sweden was not entirely open, and Swedes mostly behaved sensibly, so it wasn't business as usual.  But their experience, much derided early on, appears to have paid off.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 02, 2020, 05:06:03 PM
Then it MUST be true, lol.  :-[
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 05:06:59 PM
Feel free to pose other hypotheses consistent with what we think we know.

That is how science works.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 02, 2020, 05:07:12 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 05:03:44 PM
So, IF this is correct, what does it suggest out course should be?  Open everything up except "retirement homes"?

I dunno.  Sweden was not entirely open, and Swedes mostly behaved sensibly, so it wasn't business as usual.  But their experience, much derided early on, appears to have paid off.


Their economy suffered as much as their neighbors AND more people have died.  SWEDEN IS NOT A GOOD MODEL.  Saying so is irresponsible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 02, 2020, 05:07:48 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 05:06:59 PM
Feel free to pose other hypotheses consistent with what we think we know.
I'll leave the perpetual fallacies to you.  I'm not allergic to saying "I don't know," unlike most people. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 05:07:55 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 02, 2020, 05:07:12 PM
Their economy suffered as much as their neighbors AND more people have died.  SWEDEN IS NOT A GOOD MODEL.  Saying so is irresponsible.

Have you checked their numbers lately?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 05:08:31 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 05:03:44 PM
So, IF this is correct, what does it suggest out course should be?  Open everything up except "retirement homes"?

I dunno.  Sweden was not entirely open, and Swedes mostly behaved sensibly, so it wasn't business as usual.  But their experience, much derided early on, appears to have paid off.


I didn't say "I don't know", I said "I dunno", sorry, my bad.

https://www.newsweek.com/sweden-which-never-had-lockdown-sees-covid-19-cases-plummet-rest-europe-suffers-spike-1521626 (https://www.newsweek.com/sweden-which-never-had-lockdown-sees-covid-19-cases-plummet-rest-europe-suffers-spike-1521626)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 02, 2020, 05:16:04 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2020, 03:49:11 PM
This was true in October, more than likely.
Makes me wonder.    Last September, I made my annual trek to northern Michigan for golf weekend with 20 or so HS/ sports buds.  It might be the thing I look forward to most all year, sans CFB.  Last year I went in early to spend a couple days with mom. 

So I had been there for five days and out of the blue I started feeling really sick. Very fatigued shortness of breath aches and chills and a little bit of nausea.  I went to an urgent clinic up there and told the doctor I had what felt like the flu and he commented that they hadn’t seen flu since the spring and he sincerely doubted that it was.  But, I have a very unpleasant nose swab which can tell us in about 10 minutes so he did a test. He walks back in and says “ I’ll be damned- you have Flu B- which is even more rare. We’re you on a plane?” 

so I explained that yes- it was a 3 flight trip.  Palm beach- to Atlanta to Detroit to Traverse City.
Is it possible it was around then and it just wasn’t identified?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2020, 05:22:52 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 05:03:44 PM
So, IF this is correct, what does it suggest out course should be?  Open everything up except "retirement homes"?

I dunno.  Sweden was not entirely open, and Swedes mostly behaved sensibly, so it wasn't business as usual.  But their experience, much derided early on, appears to have paid off.


I did and still think it should be up to states to make their decisions, and further base those decisions on regions within each state. I'm thinking it would be prudent for states to consider the demographics of communities while making decisions.

Places like Illinois had statewide mandates. The people not located in or around Chicago suffered greatly. Did they need to? When Chicago became a hot spot was before the mandate. I suspect it got to be a hot spot in late December or early January, as people returned from travel abroad (and many other passed through ORD on their way elsewhere). I remember photos showing >5000 people lined up, tightly, in the customs area at ORD when travel to Europe was closed and everyone came back immediately. This was when we were told to not wear masks because they did no good.

Then you have Florida, which did a gradual re-opening, earlier than many states. When we first arrived down there, we could not eat inside or outside at any restaurant (not that we were eager to anyway). People gradually let their guard down and started trying to get back to normal. These people generally come from two age groups - the 65 and over and the 39 and under. This is based on what I witnessed while still there, and on what I can gather from the various newspapers around the state.

Since June 1:

Cases are way up (but now trending down) because of the 39 and under crowd going to bars. Deaths are up (looks like a plateau is upon us) because the 65 and over crowd got tired of staying home.

Level of positivity has been trending down for a month now, from 15% at the end of June to 11% at the end of July. That's good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 05:23:04 PM
Influenza should be distinguishable in any test from Corona Virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 02, 2020, 05:26:21 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 05:23:04 PM
Influenza should be distinguishable in any test from Corona Virus.
I would agree. But this was last September?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 05:28:07 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 02, 2020, 05:26:21 PM
I would agree. But this was last September?
I doubt a viral test could confuse influenza and corona, but I could be wrong here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2020, 05:29:48 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 02, 2020, 05:16:04 PM
Makes me wonder.    Last September, I made my annual trek to northern Michigan for golf weekend with 20 or so HS/ sports buds.  It might be the thing I look forward to most all year, sans CFB.  Last year I went in early to spend a couple days with mom. 

So I had been there for five days and out of the blue I started feeling really sick. Very fatigued shortness of breath aches and chills and a little bit of nausea.  I went to an urgent clinic up there and told the doctor I had what felt like the flu and he commented that they hadn’t seen flu since the spring and he sincerely doubted that it was.  But, I have a very unpleasant nose swab which can tell us in about 10 minutes so he did a test. He walks back in and says “ I’ll be damned- you have Flu B- which is even more rare. We’re you on a plane?” 

so I explained that yes- it was a 3 flight trip.  Palm beach- to Atlanta to Detroit to Traverse City.
Is it possible it was around then and it just wasn’t identified?
I think it's possible, but probably more likely November when it started coming in from China, in CA and WA.

I wish we could know, somehow, but we probably will never get answers from the CCP on when this really started.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 02, 2020, 05:30:57 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 05:07:55 PM
Have you checked their numbers lately?
OAM has no answers he's perfectly content sucking the Government tit.When the damage done to the private sector - you know the people who pays his bills is beyond repair he'll be belching how come they couldn't see this all along.Time to open up before it's too late.Let school be online if that satisfies the waif but the mfg/retail/restuarants work force has to go back
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 02, 2020, 05:32:37 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2020, 05:22:52 PM
I did and still think it should be up to states to make their decisions, and further base those decisions on regions within each state. I'm thinking it would be prudent for states to consider the demographics of communities while making decisions.

Places like Illinois had statewide mandates. The people not located in or around Chicago suffered greatly. Did they need to? When Chicago became a hot spot was before the mandate. I suspect it got to be a hot spot in late December or early January, as people returned from travel abroad (and many other passed through ORD on their way elsewhere). I remember photos showing >5000 people lined up, tightly, in the customs area at ORD when travel to Europe was closed and everyone came back immediately. This was when we were told to not wear masks because they did no good.

Then you have Florida, which did a gradual re-opening, earlier than many states. When we first arrived down there, we could not eat inside or outside at any restaurant (not that we were eager to anyway). People gradually let their guard down and started trying to get back to normal. These people generally come from two age groups - the 65 and over and the 39 and under. This is based on what I witnessed while still there, and on what I can gather from the various newspapers around the state.

Since June 1:

Cases are way up (but now trending down) because of the 39 and under crowd going to bars. Deaths are up (looks like a plateau is upon us) because the 65 and over crowd got tired of staying home.

Level of positivity has been trending down for a month now, from 15% at the end of June to 11% at the end of July. That's good.
You left out one big thing.  The eruption of new cases Clearly started in Miami/Laderdale, Palm Beach, Orlando, and Tampa/ St Pete. These area all had extremely large and frequent, and sometimes destructive protests.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2020, 05:43:38 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 02, 2020, 05:32:37 PM
You left out one big thing.  The eruption of new cases Clearly started in Miami/Laderdale, Palm Beach, Orlando, and Tampa/ St Pete. These area all had extremely large and frequent, and sometimes destructive protests.
These are mostly the <39 age group, so I figured I wouldn't mention it. People protesting in Florida were mostly not wearing masks. Too hot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 02, 2020, 06:30:28 PM
https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/07/31/new-evidence-suggests-young-children-spread-covid-19-more-efficiently-than-adults/?fbclid=IwAR26BQw0ufDBVgPTq5pprh31SVBDlyLgNXhdV1orDczaCNeR8WFFI6Q9vqk#22b63aab19fd (https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/07/31/new-evidence-suggests-young-children-spread-covid-19-more-efficiently-than-adults/?fbclid=IwAR26BQw0ufDBVgPTq5pprh31SVBDlyLgNXhdV1orDczaCNeR8WFFI6Q9vqk#22b63aab19fd)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 02, 2020, 06:34:58 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on August 02, 2020, 05:30:57 PM
OAM has no answers he's perfectly content sucking the Government tit.When the damage done to the private sector - you know the people who pays his bills is beyond repair he'll be belching how come they couldn't see this all along.Time to open up before it's too late.Let school be online if that satisfies the waif but the mfg/retail/restuarants work force has to go back
This is the 2nd time I've been shit on for being a public school teacher.  It only reflects poorly on you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 02, 2020, 06:37:33 PM
I seem to be an oddity in that there's what I want (back to normalcy, teaching in person), seeing that it's imprudent to do that, and accepting the alternative (online learning, and all that it entails).  Despite hating it, despite being rushed the trainings and programs needed to do it halfway decent, etc...I choose it, because it's the only logical route right now.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on August 02, 2020, 06:42:59 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 02, 2020, 06:37:33 PM
I seem to be an oddity in that there's what I want (back to normalcy, teaching in person), seeing that it's imprudent to do that, and accepting the alternative (online learning, and all that it entails).  Despite hating it, despite being rushed the trainings and programs needed to do it halfway decent, etc...I choose it, because it's the only logical route right now.


What do you think about online teaching? Not like whether it's good or bad but what do you like and dislike? I'm trying to be more organized about it this fall but would like a teacher's thoughts on what they prefer/hate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 02, 2020, 06:46:22 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 02, 2020, 06:34:58 PM
This is the 2nd time I've been shit on for being a public school teacher.  It only reflects poorly on you.
You're a condescending,misguided dick I don't care what you do for a living.Like you even care about the positions lost because to you they're not necessary or expendable because of your polluted inflated  view of yourself
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 02, 2020, 08:38:27 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 02, 2020, 05:03:44 PM
So, IF this is correct, what does it suggest out course should be?  Open everything up except "retirement homes"?

I dunno.  Sweden was not entirely open, and Swedes mostly behaved sensibly, so it wasn't business as usual.  But their experience, much derided early on, appears to have paid off.
Paid off how?  They've lost more people and have no better economic news than the other Scandinavian countries.  What's the upside?

EDIT: A guick Google search reveals stories from the last couple of weeks that are encouraging for Sweden, but don't seem particularly applicable to the USA.  87% of the population is complying with social-distancing rules, for one thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 02, 2020, 09:30:54 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on August 02, 2020, 06:46:22 PM
You're a condescending,misguided dick I don't care what you do for a living.Like you even care about the positions lost because to you they're not necessary or expendable because of your polluted inflated  view of yourself
lol

You're frothing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 02, 2020, 09:31:42 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 02, 2020, 08:38:27 PM
Paid off how?  They've lost more people and have no better economic news than the other Scandinavian countries.  What's the upside?

EDIT: A guick Google search reveals stories from the last couple of weeks that are encouraging for Sweden, but don't seem particularly applicable to the USA.  

Quote from: CWSooner on August 02, 2020, 08:38:27 PM
87% of the population is complying with social-distancing rules, for one thing.
Shhh, this is to be swept under the rug.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 02, 2020, 09:41:23 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on August 02, 2020, 06:42:59 PM
What do you think about online teaching? Not like whether it's good or bad but what do you like and dislike? I'm trying to be more organized about it this fall but would like a teacher's thoughts on what they prefer/hate.
It's frustrating on the teacher's side because of how limiting it is for us.  Now, if I was an active youtuber or computer programmer or had experience with green screens, program integration, or time to explore these things, maybe I could be as good an online teacher as I am in person.

I want to be amazing, and I am not amazing online.  We got a new reading program this year, and we were virtually trained on it on Tuesday.  School starts tomorrow and I've had an avalanche of stuff to do in the meantime.  How am I going to utilize all the reading program has to offer?  

The younger students' ability to do anything with online learning is nearly 100% related to how involved their parents plan on being.  Hell, I don't know what % of our households even have internet.  I sent out a class email and a quarter of them bounced back.  Understand - that's using the emails they provided us, and a quarter bounced back.

And there's a limit on how fun we can make it.  To me, fun = engagement, and while I can make my presentations and interactions fun in a vacuum, I'm no competition for the video games and active play they have at home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 02, 2020, 09:50:23 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 02, 2020, 08:38:27 PM
Paid off how?  They've lost more people and have no better economic news than the other Scandinavian countries.  What's the upside?

EDIT: A guick Google search reveals stories from the last couple of weeks that are encouraging for Sweden, but don't seem particularly applicable to the USA.  87% of the population is complying with social-distancing rules, for one thing.
Not trying to be a dick, and you will likely blast me- but here goes. 
Now that I have seen the evidence, and experimented with it a little, whenever I see “ google search” on any topic that could be or has been politicized, ( like covid) I take it with a skeptical grain of salt.  Google buries or eliminates a shit ton of material that does not match their very liberal set of narratives. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 02, 2020, 10:00:10 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 02, 2020, 09:41:23 PM
It's frustrating on the teacher's side because of how limiting it is for us.  Now, if I was an active youtuber or computer programmer or had experience with green screens, program integration, or time to explore these things, maybe I could be as good an online teacher as I am in person.

I want to be amazing, and I am not amazing online.  We got a new reading program this year, and we were virtually trained on it on Tuesday.  School starts tomorrow and I've had an avalanche of stuff to do in the meantime.  How am I going to utilize all the reading program has to offer? 

The younger students' ability to do anything with online learning is nearly 100% related to how involved their parents plan on being.  Hell, I don't know what % of our households even have internet.  I sent out a class email and a quarter of them bounced back.  Understand - that's using the emails they provided us, and a quarter bounced back.

And there's a limit on how fun we can make it.  To me, fun = engagement, and while I can make my presentations and interactions fun in a vacuum, I'm no competition for the video games and active play they have at home.

I can totally sympathize with this take.  It makes sense to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 02, 2020, 10:10:35 PM
What would you do, if anything?

As you know my woman is sick, very possibly covid 19.   She still can’t stomach much solid food, but has been drinking smoothies pretty well. 

She asked me( just a while ago) to run up to the McDonalds drive thru to get her a couple strawberry banana smoothies

After I placed my order I went to first window and paid. Went to the second window, and looked in and saw a very overweight young man making the smoothies.  His mask was pulled down around his neck, not covering any part of his face. He was standing RIGHT OVER the pitcher and cups.  

What would you do?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 02, 2020, 10:19:06 PM
I wouldn't go to McDonalds
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2020, 10:21:20 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 02, 2020, 10:19:06 PM
I wouldn't go to McDonalds
Correct. No McDonald's for me, ever again. Now that I know how to make Big Mac sauce, it's all good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 02, 2020, 10:26:54 PM
Wipe off the outside of the drinks and wash your hands.  This virus isn't transmitted by ingestion.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 02, 2020, 10:29:20 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 02, 2020, 10:19:06 PM
I wouldn't go to McDonalds
Lol.  Your not helping.  

I generally don’t go there- but my honey wanted their smoothie at 9:30 lol.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 02, 2020, 10:31:31 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 02, 2020, 10:26:54 PM
Wipe off the outside of the drinks and wash your hands.  This virus isn't transmitted by ingestion.


Thanks.  And bonus for actually answering my question.  

I was wondering if anyone would advocate saying something to the employee?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 02, 2020, 10:34:22 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 02, 2020, 09:50:23 PM
Not trying to be a dick, and you will likely blast me- but here goes.
Now that I have seen the evidence, and experimented with it a little, whenever I see “ google search” on any topic that could be or has been politicized, ( like covid) I take it with a skeptical grain of salt.  Google buries or eliminates a shit ton of material that does not match their very liberal set of narratives.
It's not Google directly.  It's Google's algorithms directing us to what we have proven we like.
But I take your point.
In my simple search, I tried to pick the ones most favorable to Sweden's actions.  There were others saying things like "Swedes paying the price," etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 02, 2020, 10:35:36 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 02, 2020, 10:10:35 PM
What would you do, if anything?

As you know my woman is sick, very possibly covid 19.  She still can’t stomach much solid food, but has been drinking smoothies pretty well.

She asked me( just a while ago) to run up to the McDonalds drive thru to get her a couple strawberry banana smoothies

After I placed my order I went to first window and paid. Went to the second window, and looked in and saw a very overweight young man making the smoothies.  His mask was pulled down around his neck, not covering any part of his face. He was standing RIGHT OVER the pitcher and cups. 

What would you do?
I would have refused to pay and gone elsewhere.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 02, 2020, 10:53:35 PM
When I think google isnt playing fair I use the DuckDuckGo search engine

you would be amazed what the Duck search brings up that google doesnt
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 02, 2020, 10:55:50 PM
I use Altavista, Webcrawler, or AskJeeves.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 03, 2020, 12:08:03 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 02, 2020, 10:53:35 PM
When I think google isnt playing fair I use the DuckDuckGo search engine

you would be amazed what the Duck search brings up that google doesnt
I have found the same 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 03, 2020, 02:00:16 AM
Long, long ago, lost in the mists of time, I used Ask Jeeves.  I didn't know it still existed.

Learn something new every day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 03, 2020, 07:37:31 AM
Surprised.  First surprise, the Mrs. test at CVS came back already- she took it Friday and was back late yesterday.  2 days. 

Second surprise- negative.  She still has a fever ranging from 100-103 at times.  Fatigue off and on.  Aches/ chills. 

Flu?  False negative?  She is going again today.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8406621/Coronavirus-tests-return-false-negatives-67-time-theyre-given-four-days-infection.html

Shocking how many tests are false negatives.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 03, 2020, 08:17:19 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/cIzLxBI.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2020, 08:36:06 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 03, 2020, 07:37:31 AM
Surprised.  First surprise, the Mrs. test at CVS came back already- she took it Friday and was back late yesterday.  2 days. 

Second surprise- negative.  She still has a fever ranging from 100-103 at times.  Fatigue off and on.  Aches/ chills. 

Flu?  False negative?  She is going again today.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8406621/Coronavirus-tests-return-false-negatives-67-time-theyre-given-four-days-infection.html

Shocking how many tests are false negatives. 
It's good that she is going back today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 03, 2020, 09:23:11 AM
At hospital this morning for wife's surgery.

Swedes economy seems to have held up, and their coved numbers are markedly down after a rough start.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 03, 2020, 09:47:26 AM
good luck
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 03, 2020, 10:08:44 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 03, 2020, 09:23:11 AM
At hospital this morning for wife's surgery.

Swedes economy seems to have held up, and their coved numbers are markedly down after a rough start.
Hope all goes well. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 03, 2020, 10:26:34 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 03, 2020, 09:23:11 AM
At hospital this morning for wife's surgery.

Swedes economy seems to have held up, and their coved numbers are markedly down after a rough start.
Thoughts with you guys. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 03, 2020, 10:53:12 AM
I see the common argument of "well, we MUST have some immunity already within society, because if we didn't the numbers would be much worse" quite a bit here.

I don't think the evidence really bears that out... It fails to account for the fact that basically 90% of the country has drastically changed their behavior over the last 5 months. 



Now, compare this to the counterexamples:


The idea that it's not spreading because we have latent immunity just doesn't hold water. The more likely scenario is that it's not spreading because we've all changed our behavior and kept R0 close enough to 1 that it's spreading slowly. The reason more of us haven't gotten it is that as far as confirmed cases are concerned, we're still at about 1.33% of the nation having had it. Of those 1.33%, most have either recovered or died, and those who know they're currently infected are self-quarantined, so there are few contagious people out in the wild right now.

So if you encounter a random 1000 people, how many are likely to have COVID? 5 (0.5%)? 10 (1%)? Lower? Either way, I know I haven't encountered 1000 people in the last month, and that includes any interactions I had going to/from Oregon a week ago and my various trips to Costco or other stores during that time. 

In short, this is the equivalent of the argument I warned against early. The idea that if we did a good job keeping the death count down, people would use that as an argument that this was never very bad to start with. That argument has morphed into "we must have some level of latent immunity or the spread would be much worse, therefore this isn't as serious as we thought."

I understand both arguments--most of you here are optimists, and you sincerely want this to not be as bad as we all initially feared. But the easiest explanation for the lack of rampant spread is that we're actually doing a pretty decent job of controlling spread THROUGH OUR ACTIONS, and in the absence of those actions this thing would be a LOT worse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 03, 2020, 11:01:30 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 03, 2020, 10:53:12 AM
I see the common argument of "well, we MUST have some immunity already within society, because if we didn't the numbers would be much worse" quite a bit here.

I don't think the evidence really bears that out... It fails to account for the fact that basically 90% of the country has drastically changed their behavior over the last 5 months.


  • Most of those who can are WFH.
  • Most of those who cannot WFH are either at their workplace while distancing / wearing masks, or are home unemployed.
  • In much of the country, bars, indoor dining, movie theaters, even nail/hair salons, are closed.
  • In most of the places where things are open, people are still trying to distance, wear masks, etc.
  • Kids aren't in school congregating with each other. Many parents are still heavily limiting the interaction their kids have with others.
  • Many families/friend groups are avoiding large family gatherings, parties, get-togethers, or are doing them FAR more infrequently than before.
  • There are no concerts, no in-person sporting events, and in general large events which would cause significant spread have been curtailed.

Now, compare this to the counterexamples:

  • In places where there were people in close proximity and limited capability for distancing (Diamond Princess cruise line, the various meat packing plants that had outbreaks, nursing homes before we learned our lessons), the thing ripped through like wildfire.
  • There are many [admittedly anecdotal] cases we've posted here over the months. One was 16 friends who went to a bar for a birthday party and literally all of them got COVID, as did many others from the same bar that weekend. Another was a family who had a party and one asymptomatic carrier infected ~7 family members there who infected another 10 within the next few days, for 18 cases from one carrier at one event. I recall another "family party" superspreading incident we posted here but can't recall the details.
  • Now that we start seeing people returning to "normal" in an arena where you simply can't wear masks or social distance, sports, you have things like 19 members of the Florida Marlins organization all getting it in rapid succession, and we're already seeing baseball games cancelled from more players turning up positive.

The idea that it's not spreading because we have latent immunity just doesn't hold water. The more likely scenario is that it's not spreading because we've all changed our behavior and kept R0 close enough to 1 that it's spreading slowly. The reason more of us haven't gotten it is that as far as confirmed cases are concerned, we're still at about 1.33% of the nation having had it. Of those 1.33%, most have either recovered or died, and those who know they're currently infected are self-quarantined, so there are few contagious people out in the wild right now.

So if you encounter a random 1000 people, how many are likely to have COVID? 5 (0.5%)? 10 (1%)? Lower? Either way, I know I haven't encountered 1000 people in the last month, and that includes any interactions I had going to/from Oregon a week ago and my various trips to Costco or other stores during that time.

In short, this is the equivalent of the argument I warned against early. The idea that if we did a good job keeping the death count down, people would use that as an argument that this was never very bad to start with. That argument has morphed into "we must have some level of latent immunity or the spread would be much worse, therefore this isn't as serious as we thought."

I understand both arguments--most of you here are optimists, and you sincerely want this to not be as bad as we all initially feared. But the easiest explanation for the lack of rampant spread is that we're actually doing a pretty decent job of controlling spread THROUGH OUR ACTIONS, and in the absence of those actions this thing would be a LOT worse.
Solid thought process.
for me I still don’t understand if we have an answer to the most basic question:
is the goal to keep the curve flattened so we do not overrun our medical capacity, or is the goal to have as few cases as possible? And then what should the goal be?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2020, 11:05:52 AM
The ultimate goal should be a vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 03, 2020, 11:09:33 AM
that's ultimate of course

what should this month's goal be?

I think it should be to have a college football season
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2020, 11:10:53 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 03, 2020, 11:09:33 AM
that's ultimate of course

what should this month's goal be?

I think it should be to have a college football season
A lower death count than the prior month.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 03, 2020, 11:12:25 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EeV6BN4X0AEMR9U.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 03, 2020, 11:27:34 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2020, 11:10:53 AM
A lower death count than the prior month.
I agree, but at what cost?

what should the leaders do and not do to make sure this goal is achieved?

not allow kids in classrooms?

masks mandatory everywhere outside your residence?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 03, 2020, 11:37:56 AM
I think our goal should be to open up as much as possible considering hot spot etc

Practice safe spacing and using masks while trying to open up

clamp down on hot spots when they happen

we should not just close down and do nothing

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 03, 2020, 11:41:13 AM
the pressing issue at this time is education

K-12 and college

I say send them back with precautions for anyone at risk and alternates for those that are unwilling to send kids to school.

I know this is not an easy task for administrators or teachers/faculty
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on August 03, 2020, 11:44:42 AM
And based on the outbreak at that YMCA camp in Georgia, schools will be back to full distance learning by the end of September.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2020, 11:44:55 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 03, 2020, 11:27:34 AM
I agree, but at what cost?

what should the leaders do and not do to make sure this goal is achieved?

not allow kids in classrooms?

masks mandatory everywhere outside your residence?
Open up as much as possible, while keeping the most vulnerable people home. The problem is, those people are sick of staying home too, and they go out anyway.

A mandate against them going out would likely be met with lawsuits, based on age discrimination. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 03, 2020, 12:10:23 PM
let em bring lawsuits

that would take time and money

perhaps by then some lives could be saved
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 03, 2020, 12:21:10 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on August 03, 2020, 11:44:42 AM
And based on the outbreak at that YMCA camp in Georgia, schools will be back to full distance learning by the end of September.
That's what I think is going to happen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on August 03, 2020, 12:52:26 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 03, 2020, 11:27:34 AM
masks mandatory everywhere outside your residence?
This should have happened a long time ago, and we wouldn't be here.

Politicizing this, making this some weird "liberty" thing cost our country months.

Don't even say "when social distancing isn't possible."  Just masks at all time, no matter what, when you are outside your residence.  We'd have had this thing totally knocked out in May.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 03, 2020, 01:06:41 PM
Quote from: ELA on August 03, 2020, 12:52:26 PM
This should have happened a long time ago, and we wouldn't be here.

Politicizing this, making this some weird "liberty" thing cost our country months.

Don't even say "when social distancing isn't possible."  Just masks at all time, no matter what, when you are outside your residence.  We'd have had this thing totally knocked out in May.
Eh. You all know I'm very pro-mask.

But I'm not wearing a damn mask when I'm walking my dog around the block in quiet suburbia. I don't have to be within 20 feet of anyone, and even if I see someone there's plenty of options to go around giving them a wide berth [and I do].

And I still think one of the bigger issues is household mixing. This is something that STILL isn't getting enough attention. People worry about fleeting encounters "in public" with strangers while wearing a mask, when there should be more worry about being in close proximity to family or friends from outside your household, for extended time (hours), without a mask. 

I'm guilty of that one, in that we have had visits with family off and on during this thing. However we try very hard to be safe in the entire rest of our lives so that the risk of actually having COVID and transmitting it to my in-laws would be minimal on the few occasions we see them. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on August 03, 2020, 01:11:25 PM
The problem is every exception is a slippery slope.  Our kid's little league initially said parents had to unless they were "socially distanced."  Which led to people sitting less close together, but still wandering the fields and the concessions without masks.

I agree it's the outdoor cookouts and stuff like that, that are the most problematic "exceptions", but I'd rather just suck it up for a month than keep dealing with people acting like whatever they are doing fits an exception.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2020, 01:12:40 PM
I'm on a dock, in a marina, and it's busy on weekends. None of us are going on anyone else's boats like we used to, but we gather to eat and drink in the evenings. We keep our distance for sure, and have gone to extra lengths when it comes to serving food and such.

But still. Something could happen. Hasn't yet, but that doesn't mean it can't. Just need to be as careful as possible. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on August 03, 2020, 01:16:41 PM
And I know I'm guilty too.  There is a group of 6 families.  We do fires most weekends, and we set our chairs up far apart.  But we also all have kids, and after a few, eh, we start moving so we aren't just talking to our spouses anymore.  It's outdoors exclusively, but I know we shouldn't.  I started wearing a mask to it last Friday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2020, 01:20:50 PM
Quote from: ELA on August 03, 2020, 01:16:41 PM
And I know I'm guilty too.  There is a group of 6 families.  We do fires most weekends, and we set our chairs up far apart.  But we also all have kids, and after a few, eh, we start moving so we aren't just talking to our spouses anymore.  It's outdoors exclusively, but I know we shouldn't.  I started wearing a mask to it last Friday.
I feel much more safe outdoors than I would indoors. It's been really hot and humid lately too, so that helps.

We have a gallon of hand sanitizer that gets used constantly. I like that too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 03, 2020, 01:38:27 PM
It's hard. I'm far less worried about contracting COVID myself than who I might spread it to. But it's not emotionally healthy to live in a bubble 24/7. I know it's been wearing on me.


It's about balancing risk. We knew going to Oregon that we'd be spending 5 nights in my in-laws' house as their guests and that we needed to be vigilant before going to make sure we didn't carry the virus up there. But both we and they are very careful about what we do, so we figured it was an acceptably low risk. It was basically two very careful couples social distancing together. 

Going forward, we're hoping to go back at Thanksgiving. My wife misses her mother--they don't get to see each other often enough as it is. We'd love to go spend a week up there. But we also know that my mother-in-law will be roped/guilted into creating her traditional huge Thanksgiving feast and inviting 20+ people to her house. And a number of those people we don't particularly trust to be as careful as we are. So if nothing has changed between now and then regarding cases we simply won't go.  

But per ELA's point, that's what makes it hard. Because it's a lot easier to have a blanket policy for ALL scenarios, given that many people have difficulty dealing with the nuance and accurately evaluating risk. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 03, 2020, 02:07:51 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on August 03, 2020, 01:38:27 PM
It's hard. I'm far less worried about contracting COVID myself than who I might spread it to. But it's not emotionally healthy to live in a bubble 24/7. I know it's been wearing on me.


But per ELA's point, that's what makes it hard. Because it's a lot easier to have a blanket policy for ALL scenarios, given that many people have difficulty dealing with the nuance and accurately evaluating risk.

this is the issue...

all of us, are doing what we feel is acceptable risk

obviously some of us accept more risk than others

young people in their 20's and 30's  are risky

I don't think most folks of any age are trying to be irresponsible, but apparently we aren't being safe enough because the numbers keep coming

hot spots are the biggest problem, but the hot spot is caused by the same issue of not being safe enough to prevent the spread
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 03, 2020, 02:10:48 PM
For those of you following my saga, my better half went to the hospital and had an instant test today and it came back negative. Also tested for the flu which also came back negative. So now we are really worried because she’s not really getting any better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 03, 2020, 02:14:06 PM
Sorry HB.

There are definitely cases of false negative on the COVID tests.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2020, 02:15:43 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 03, 2020, 02:10:48 PM
For those of you following my saga, my better half went to the hospital and had an instant test today and it came back negative. Also tested for the flu which also came back negative. So now we are really worried because she’s not really getting any better.
Can she go see her regular doctor and get a diagnosis?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 03, 2020, 02:15:58 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 03, 2020, 02:10:48 PM
For those of you following my saga, my better half went to the hospital and had an instant test today and it came back negative. Also tested for the flu which also came back negative. So now we are really worried because she’s not really getting any better.
Best of luck HB. 

Out of curiosity, is she getting the nose swab test or the throat swab? I've heard the throat swab is less invasive, but also less likely to catch it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 03, 2020, 02:16:20 PM
And HB, if you can't get any kind of medical treatment, I hope you're at least doing what you can with over-the-counter stuff.  Take supplemental Vitamin D3 (2000IU-5000IU/day), Vitamin C, and Zinc at a bare minimum.

You should be taking it as well, to help minimize your own risk even if you're not infected with the same illness.  (we all should be, actually)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2020, 02:17:36 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 03, 2020, 02:16:20 PM
And HB, if you can't get any kind of medical treatment, I hope you're at least doing what you can with over-the-counter stuff.  Take supplemental Vitamin D3 (2000IU-5000IU/day), Vitamin C, and Zinc at a bare minimum.

You should be taking it as well, to help minimize your own risk even if you're not infected with the same illness.


Add Iodine and Vitamin A and you've got my regimen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 03, 2020, 02:23:20 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2020, 02:15:43 PM
Can she go see her regular doctor and get a diagnosis?
If she is not better tomorrow I am taking her to ER.  

thanks for all that had suggestions on vitamins. 
I have been on a regimen for about 20 years:
fish oil, CoQ10, vitamin C, vitamin D3 and a multi with B and Zinc. 

hard to get her to take pills- but I will!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 03, 2020, 02:24:26 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 03, 2020, 02:16:20 PM
And HB, if you can't get any kind of medical treatment, I hope you're at least doing what you can with over-the-counter stuff.  Take supplemental Vitamin D3 (2000IU-5000IU/day), Vitamin C, and Zinc at a bare minimum.

You should be taking it as well, to help minimize your own risk even if you're not infected with the same illness.  (we all should be, actually)


Thanks Utee!   Going to do just that- I have them already
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 03, 2020, 02:26:31 PM
She needs to be taking the pills.  There is some recent research that of all of them, the Viamin D could be the most important.  We should all be above the 30-32 ng/ml range, the severity/length of the COVID illness seems to drop significantly in the cohorts of people whose Vitamin D levels are at and above that level.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2020, 02:35:20 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 03, 2020, 02:26:31 PM
She needs to be taking the pills.  There is some recent research that of all of them, the Viamin D could be the most important.  We should all be above the 30-32 ng/ml range, the severity/length of the COVID illness seems to drop significantly in the cohorts of people whose Vitamin D levels are at and above that level.
Got a link? I'd like to read it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 03, 2020, 03:20:52 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2020, 02:35:20 PM
Got a link? I'd like to read it.
Some docs on surlyhorns posted it recently.  I'll see if I can dig it up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 03, 2020, 03:43:30 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2020, 02:17:36 PM
Add Iodine and Vitamin A and you've got my regimen.
Jim Beam 1oz daily
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 03, 2020, 03:44:47 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 03, 2020, 02:24:26 PM
Thanks Utee!  Going to do just that- I have them already
Good Luck HB
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 03, 2020, 03:46:18 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 03, 2020, 03:20:52 PM
Some docs on surlyhorns posted it recently.  I'll see if I can dig it up.

surlyhorns?


thats where I need to be
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 03, 2020, 03:59:56 PM
why am I just hearing about this now?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 03, 2020, 04:05:26 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/tS45StA.png)

Why did these states peak and now start declining?  Georgia is doing the same thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 03, 2020, 04:06:26 PM
mask usage 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2020, 04:07:35 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 03, 2020, 04:05:26 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/tS45StA.png)

Why did these states peak and now start declining?  Georgia is doing the same thing.
People got lax and stupid for a while. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 03, 2020, 04:08:21 PM
I think more likely is the immunity theory.  I think.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 03, 2020, 04:13:12 PM
bwarbiany disagrees
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 03, 2020, 04:13:55 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 03, 2020, 04:08:21 PM
I think more likely is the immunity theory.  I think.
I doubt it. If you look at Europe, even some of the countries that were hit hard are seeing resurgence now that they're reopening. Spain is one of the worst, and they were hit HARD early. 

 
Quote from: FearlessF on August 03, 2020, 04:06:26 PM
mask usage
I think this is a big part of it.
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2020, 04:07:35 PM
People got lax and stupid for a while.
This too. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 03, 2020, 04:14:47 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 03, 2020, 04:13:12 PM
bwarbiany disagrees
What I would say is that the evidence doesn't support Cincy's and Badge's wild conjectures. :57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 03, 2020, 04:18:11 PM
Those countries may not have hit "herd immunity" yet, that's the point.  How do you explain Sweden?  I know France has still considerable restrictions and mask wearing etc.  Can this be explained by changed in human behaviors in those states above?

I doubt it.

Something else is happening, I think.

This thing starts, and looks bad, so we shut down and suppress it, but then start to reopen and it comes back in full force.  And then, it slows down again, as with Sweden.  No real changes in human behaviors of consequence.

I guess you could claim the protests largely dissipated.

Area under the curve ...?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 03, 2020, 04:20:18 PM
Hospitalizations continue downward trend in Texas
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 03, 2020, 04:25:33 PM
Hospitals are getting full here, so I hope it starts back down.  Grady in ATL is at 105% right now.  They have not stopped elective surgeries anywhere at least.  So far.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2020, 04:28:31 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 03, 2020, 04:14:47 PM
What I would say is that the evidence doesn't support Cincy's and Badge's wild conjectures. :57:
I don't think it's all too wild. There are some pretty credible sources coming up with these things, and then you have Sweden, and even Wisconsin.

Cases in Wisconsin have gone up by 60% over the past month, but testing has also gone way up in this period.

Positivity is around 5 percent here still.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 03, 2020, 04:36:22 PM
I think my conjecture is pretty wild, and it's possible it's more or less correct.

If someone can explain Sweden otherwise, I'd like to hear it.  They didn't change policy or how people behaved.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 03, 2020, 04:59:23 PM
LINCOLN, Neb — Nebraska Governor Pete Ricketts held strong on his decision not to issue a statewide mask ordinance today during a press briefing this Monday morning.

This comes after several legal disputes between county officials and the governor's office surrounding what type of mandates would be allowed.

The governor claims that local governments do not have the authority to enact a mask mandate without approval from his administration.

A mandate has gone into place in Lancaster county after changes to the initial directed health measure were made, but officials have backed down from a mask mandate in Douglas county after a response from the governor's office.


"I don't want to make it a crime, which is what it is if you pass an ordinance or something like that you are now making it a crime that somebody's not wearing their mask, that heavy-handed government is not, I believe the best approach to be able to adopt using masks as part of their everyday life" stated Governor Ricketts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 03, 2020, 05:01:25 PM
(https://siouxlandnews.com/resources/media/dfec3c3c-a253-4ce4-894e-74210ecacedd-medium16x9_3OSNIdeathsbyageinwoodburycounty.png?1596479121580)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 03, 2020, 05:15:32 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 03, 2020, 04:18:11 PM
Those countries may not have hit "herd immunity" yet, that's the point.  How do you explain Sweden?  I know France has still considerable restrictions and mask wearing etc.  Can this be explained by changed in human behaviors in those states above?

I doubt it.

Something else is happening, I think.

This thing starts, and looks bad, so we shut down and suppress it, but then start to reopen and it comes back in full force.  And then, it slows down again, as with Sweden.  No real changes in human behaviors of consequence.

I guess you could claim the protests largely dissipated.

Area under the curve ...?
I explain it primarily with behavior. Whether mandated or not, people DO respond to these case numbers by changing their behavior. 

That's where Sweden came in. If they hadn't changed their behavior, their economy would have been largely unaffected. But it wasn't unaffected. They didn't forcibly lock down, but that doesn't mean they didn't voluntarily adapt. 

People get complacent and start thinking "it's going away" so they get lax in their behavior, and then it spikes again and they say "oh, I guess it's still around." 

Again these are all aggregates. This thing might have a R0 of 2.5-3.0 if no mitigating behaviors are undertaken, but right now our behavior has it down closer to 1. When we get lax, it goes above 1, when we tighten, it drops below. 

But as I said, anywhere you get a cluster of people close together, it spirals out QUICKLY in that cluster. That wouldn't be the case if we had inherent immunity. 

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2020, 04:28:31 PM
I don't think it's all too wild. There are some pretty credible sources coming up with these things, and then you have Sweden, and even Wisconsin.

Cases in Wisconsin have gone up by 60% over the past month, but testing has also gone way up in this period.

Positivity is around 5 percent here still.
What I think is unfounded conjecture is the idea that you threw out that 50% of people have had it, or that Cincy throws out that we have some sort of completely unknown inherent immunity in society that no scientist to date has identified. 

To put it simply, the MUCH easier explanation is that mitigation has been primarily behavioral. This is even more strongly justified when you see that places/situations where the behavioral changes either can't or aren't continuing, you get spikes and clusters, which wouldn't happen if there was inherent immunity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 03, 2020, 05:21:27 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 03, 2020, 04:36:22 PM
I think my conjecture is pretty wild, and it's possible it's more or less correct.

If someone can explain Sweden otherwise, I'd like to hear it.  They didn't change policy or how people behaved.
Policy != Behavior

https://www.newsweek.com/sweden-covid-19-death-rate-lower-spain-italy-uk-despite-never-having-lockdown-1522306 (https://www.newsweek.com/sweden-covid-19-death-rate-lower-spain-italy-uk-despite-never-having-lockdown-1522306)


Quote
Anders Tegnell, the chief epidemiologist at Sweden's public health agency, noted last week: "We have cut down on movement in society quite a lot. We have compared how much we travel in Scandinavian countries, and the decrease in travel is the same in Sweden as in neighboring countries," in an interview with UnHerd (https://www.newsweek.com/sweden-which-never-had-lockdown-sees-covid-19-cases-plummet-rest-europe-suffers-spike-1521626).

"In many ways the voluntary measures we put in place in Sweden have been just as effective as complete lockdowns in other countries," he added.
They encouraged WFH. They encouraged social distancing. They are claiming [above] that voluntary changes reduced mobility. 

What they didn't do is mandate it, and people are acting like that means nothing changed at all. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2020, 05:31:38 PM
You don't think it's at all possible that more people have had this than is being reported? 

I've seen estimates of 20-30 times more than reported, by people who know more than me.

The truth is that we don't know, but here's a few thoughts.

Hell, I had it and one would think my wife did, at a minimum, and probably my brother and two close friends. Those 4 very likely cases are not reported. 

And while my wife had it (no symptoms, aside from a cough, which she NEVER has - she's never sick in the 26+ years I've known her), she was still reporting to an office with 10,000 other people in it prior to her retirement. They just changed to a "google" type layout too, getting rid of all of their cubes. 

Oopsies.

Anyway, can you see how this thing might have gone, early on, with mass numbers getting it, mostly without symptoms, or very little, and spread it to more vulnerable people in their families, without knowing anything about it? Schools weren't shut down until what? April?

The whole country travelled on airplanes through mid-March. This thing has been here since November, if not before.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 03, 2020, 05:31:57 PM
But, they did this from the start, right?  It's not some change in behavior 3-4-5 weeks ago.   The change of COVID rates of infection are astonishing.

The numbers ran up initially quite high, and then went way down.  Why?

Something changed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 03, 2020, 05:36:46 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 03, 2020, 05:31:57 PM
But, they did this from the start, right? It's not some change in behavior 3-4-5 weeks ago.  The change of COVID rates of infection are astonishing.

The numbers ran up initially quite high, and then went way down.  Why?

Something changed.
Yes they did.  And following bwar's logic, as people saw the case numbers start coming down, their behavior should actually have become more lax and so it should be getting worse in Sweden as times goes on.

That's what happened here in the USA.  It's what's happening currently in Spain, and other places where it was diminished, and is now flaring up again.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 03, 2020, 05:44:43 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2020, 05:31:38 PM
You don't think it's at all possible that more people have had this than is being reported?

I've seen estimates of 20-30 times more than reported, by people who know more than me.

The truth is that we don't know, but here's a few thoughts.
Obviously there's a multiplier of true cases to confirmed cases. The horribly bad Santa Clara study said somewhere between 28-55x was the multiplier, but that was widely ridiculed for many [very good] reasons. 

I think the multiplier is probably 5-10x, but starting to come down as testing is so much more available than it was a few months ago. 

I don't think anywhere NEAR half the country has had it. Maybe 15% tops by now is where I'd put the extreme upper bound. 

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 03, 2020, 05:31:57 PM
But, they did this from the start, right?  It's not some change in behavior 3-4-5 weeks ago.  The change of COVID rates of infection are astonishing.

The numbers ran up initially quite high, and then went way down.  Why?

Something changed.
I'm saying that peoples' behavior changed. Not government policy, not mandates, not anything. People, as an aggregate, made some small changes to their behavior because they were alarmed by the rising case rates and that brought down R0. 

Again, it doesn't take much. Hanging out in the backyard with a friend in the heat instead of inside in the A/C because you know outside is a little easier, and greeting without a hug. Skipping that unnecessary restaurant stop when you know you can order takeout. Being just a hair more vigilant about hand sanitizer when you go to the grocery store because you know how the cases are spiking. Avoiding that summer BBQ that you might have gone to before cases were spiking because you're a little more worried. Etc etc etc.

Or more specifically here in the US, a bunch of young people maybe NOT going out to the bar as often--in the places they're still open. Or not going to parties as much. 

These things, writ large over a population, can make a pretty big difference to R0.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 03, 2020, 05:47:36 PM
My friend in Sweden tells me they had constant behaviors over time, they never at any point "changed" to being more careful, they were careful from the get go.

That is one person of course.

I tend to doubt folks saw bad numbers and tightened up on that overall, I see evidence to the contrary.

And the theory is that folks have immunity/resistance from a similar corona virus in the past in large numbers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 03, 2020, 05:55:54 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 03, 2020, 05:36:46 PM
Yes they did.  And following bwar's logic, as people saw the case numbers start coming down, their behavior should actually have become more lax and so it should be getting worse in Sweden as times goes on.

That's what happened here in the USA.  It's what's happening currently in Spain, and other places where it was diminished, and is now flaring up again.
If you look at Sweden's graph, some of it is very similar to here. 

They had a run-up in cases just like everywhere else. They never locked down, so they didn't get a huge decrease in daily cases like some places did, but it plateaued. Then they had an explosion that ran for nearly a month, and then since the beginning of July they've had a strong decrease. 

Now, I've argued against post-hoc narrative-building as it relates to sports, but here's a potential timeline/explanation:


Sweden has a lot of demographic advantages to help control spread. A lot of WFH opportunity (many were already doing so). A lot of single-person households, and few 3-generation households. A strong social safety net to deal with the economic dislocation of people not going out and spending. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2020, 05:59:35 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 03, 2020, 05:44:43 PM
Obviously there's a multiplier of true cases to confirmed cases. The horribly bad Santa Clara study said somewhere between 28-55x was the multiplier, but that was widely ridiculed for many [very good] reasons.

I think the multiplier is probably 5-10x, but starting to come down as testing is so much more available than it was a few months ago.

I don't think anywhere NEAR half the country has had it. Maybe 15% tops by now is where I'd put the extreme upper bound.
I'm saying that peoples' behavior changed. Not government policy, not mandates, not anything. People, as an aggregate, made some small changes to their behavior because they were alarmed by the rising case rates and that brought down R0.
Conjecture?

My one case could have went to hundreds of people, by my wife reporting to work while having it.

There are a lot of examples like me. To know even I had it, I needed an antibody test months later, because we had no tests here in March. Only then did I become a statistic. 3 months later. 

Just think about it, OK?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 03, 2020, 06:08:17 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 03, 2020, 05:55:54 PM
If you look at Sweden's graph, some of it is very similar to here.

They had a run-up in cases just like everywhere else. They never locked down, so they didn't get a huge decrease in daily cases like some places did, but it plateaued. Then they had an explosion that ran for nearly a month, and then since the beginning of July they've had a strong decrease.

Now, I've argued against post-hoc narrative-building as it relates to sports, but here's a potential timeline/explanation:

  • The initial run-up was like anywhere else, took everyone by surprise.
  • They pushed for some policies like WFH, locking down nursing homes, etc. The public was still in a bit of a shock with this, and so they were doing their best to maintain social distance.
  • Their plateau in daily case rates went almost 2 months, from early April until late May. The whole time, the world kept asking "did Sweden get it right?" and people grew complacent about all the things they'd been doing. While they never had official lockdowns, I suspect they got quarantine fatigue and thought this wasn't all that big of a deal. They started getting lax in their behavior.
  • When June hit, they saw a rapid spike in cases. New daily case rates doubled over that month. Again, this took everyone by surprise.
  • Due to the surprise, the realized this thing wasn't over and they needed to go back to being vigilant.
  • They did so, and cases came down.

Sweden has a lot of demographic advantages to help control spread. A lot of WFH opportunity (many were already doing so). A lot of single-person households, and few 3-generation households. A strong social safety net to deal with the economic dislocation of people not going out and spending.



Sure,  that's certainly one potential explanation.  Others are being offered and I'm not sure they're significantly less plausible than yours, that's alls I'm sayin'.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 03, 2020, 06:09:36 PM
Well, if some places hit herd immunity, we'd expect the case rates to stay low no matter what.

If this is due to better behavior, we'd expect over time it to come back.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 03, 2020, 06:11:55 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2020, 05:59:35 PM
Conjecture?

My one case could have went to hundreds of people, by my wife reporting to work while having it.

There are a lot of examples like me. To know even I had it, I needed an antibody test months later, because we had no tests here in March. Only then did I become a statistic. 3 months later.

Just think about it, OK?

I think what bwar is trying to square up with your hypothetical (as am I), is why didn't we see large increases in hospital cases for ILI/pneumonia, earlier, if it really was running rampant and infecting a larger part of the population?

You've offered one explanation that might be plausible, that it was roaming around people that weren't as serious a health risk, and it didn't really hit the hospitals until it got into more at-risk populations.  I don't know if we'll be able to gather the data to really flesh out that hypothesis, but I suppose it's possible.  

Are there any other hypotheses that fit the facts?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 03, 2020, 06:16:01 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 03, 2020, 05:47:36 PM
My friend in Sweden tells me they had constant behaviors over time, they never at any point "changed" to being more careful, they were careful from the get go.

That is one person of course.

I tend to doubt folks saw bad numbers and tightened up on that overall, I see evidence to the contrary.

And the theory is that folks have immunity/resistance from a similar corona virus in the past in large numbers.
Cincy, I can tell you that just from your own posts, it seems like your behavior became more lax as things started to open up, especially because Georgia's numbers weren't spiking, and then tightened as Georgia's numbers started to go up.

Would that be accurate? 

I'll bet if we polled most of the posters here, a good number would say that during May when we were in a lull in cases and things were reopening, they slowly eased their behavior, and then when cases started spiking hard in June/July they tightened. I know I did. 

And I'm not saying the theory that there is some immunity, perhaps from the variants of the common cold, that might be helping some people out. I consider it conjecture rather than something that has the weight of evidence behind it, of course. But I'm willing to admit that it's possible, and perhaps as the science becomes more clear, we'll find out it was there all along.

What I'm saying is this...

When cases started spiking in the US, but deaths didn't, there were a whole lot of conjectures as to why. Maybe it was because we had better treatments. Maybe it was the different age cohort. Maybe it was because the virus had mutated to be less deadly. Some of us said "hey guys, think about the lag time, maybe we're getting complacent", and lo and behold, 3-4 weeks after cases spiked we saw a significant national upturn in deaths. 

Now we went through a major spike of cases (which wouldn't make a ton of sense if we had widespread immunity) after reopening and now cases are dropping despite limited official changes to gov't policy on reopening. People throw out ideas like "oh, maybe immunity is more widespread than we thought" because we didn't change policy, but those of us who follow the human side of this believe that individual behavior DID change due to the spike in cases. And that it's a lot easier to explain a drop in cases based on behavior than it is on the idea that some completely unknown and unproven immunity exists. 

So... You might be right. But I'm going to withhold my hope/believe in that theory until we see some more evidence than looking at the curves and speculating.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 03, 2020, 06:28:17 PM
Not much, really.  I was paying close attention to the numbers and we probably did avoid taking an over night trip somewhere as a result.  We're still dining out at about the same rate.  I can't see how my personal behavior changes would have made much of a difference if compounded x 10 million.  We still dine out fairly often, mostly outside, and we are having elective surgeries.

Something to worry about is kids, if adults have some latent resistance, kids may not have it.  The YMCA story here suggests they don't, they had nearly a 50% hit rate after that camp.

But, if modest behavior changes have caused these drops, that also is good news, if the behaviors persist.

Mask wearing where we are is probably over 90%, and I'd consider that as a plausible factor here, and that also would be good news if so.

Today's newly reported cases in GA is way down, but just one day, a thousand under the 7 day average.  Just one day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 03, 2020, 06:35:30 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2020, 05:59:35 PM
Conjecture?

My one case could have went to hundreds of people, by my wife reporting to work while having it.

There are a lot of examples like me. To know even I had it, I needed an antibody test months later, because we had no tests here in March. Only then did I become a statistic. 3 months later.

Just think about it, OK?
Definitely thinking about it.

I don't know your wife's behavior. Personally if I had it and I went into the office, I'd likely barely spread it because I rarely talk to anyone. Maybe your wife was the office social butterfly; I don't know. Nor do I know the timeframe you're talking about. 

We've got a lot to learn on this thing. But the little we know doesn't really justify a belief in 50% of the population having had it at this time. Maybe that's the truth, but I'm still in the "show me" mode on that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 03, 2020, 06:47:46 PM
I think we're all in the show me mode.  And my notion is not that half of us had COVID 19, but we had something similar enough that our immune systems respond to it quicker than they would otherwise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 03, 2020, 07:04:58 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 03, 2020, 06:47:46 PM
I think we're all in the show me mode.  And my notion is not that half of us had COVID 19, but we had something similar enough that our immune systems respond to it quicker than they would otherwise.
so maybe we need to develop COVID 19 Jr  and give a weaker version to everybody
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 03, 2020, 08:00:40 PM
you eat the first bat
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 03, 2020, 08:03:48 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 03, 2020, 08:00:40 PM
you eat the first bat
😂😂😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 03, 2020, 08:49:33 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 03, 2020, 08:00:40 PM
you eat the first bat
youve never had bat soup?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 03, 2020, 09:05:14 PM
nope, but I offered to take a company trip to China back in the 90s just to try some of the god awful food I was told about

I would have tried it, if it didn't smell too awful
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 03, 2020, 09:23:36 PM
Today, I went into the school where I teach.  I needed to print a 395-page document and turn it in to the print shop for 30 copies.  I saw probably 12 people.  One, other than I, was wearing a mask.  Two put masks on when I walked into their areas.

I'll bet we don't last a month before we go all "virtual."

We're planning on starting up with half the student body coming in M-Th the first week, then Friday will be distance-learning. Second week, the other half of the students come in and the first half stay home, M-Th. Friday will be distance-learning again.  Third week will be all distance-learning.

Maybe it will work.  I'm not optimistic.

My wife has multiple autoimmune disorders.  I cannot afford to bring COVID home with me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 03, 2020, 09:38:32 PM
Omaha is starting with 25%, monday, 25%, tuesday, 25%, wednesday, 25% thursday, Friday distance learning

so hopefully the first spread is only 25%

then they can close down
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 03, 2020, 11:01:40 PM
We know what's going to happen and yet we're just going to shove people into schools......this is reason number 191383837173 why the U.S. isn't the best country in the world.  We're fucking stupid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on August 04, 2020, 02:21:52 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 03, 2020, 11:01:40 PM
We know what's going to happen and yet we're just going to shove people into schools......this is reason number 191383837173 why the U.S. isn't the best country in the world.  We're fucking stupid.
I distrust what we are doing with school reopenings. In June most of us were being convinced with warmer weather the virus would be tamped down. It wasn't tamped down. It plateaued or rose in most parts of the USA, so now school reopenings appear contraindicated, and yet we are a stubborn people being led down a path like sheep into a position that will most probably appear hopeless. 
Remember Page 555 of this thread, and either diss me, or memorialize this post circa 10/12/2020. I have big shoulders, either way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 04, 2020, 07:32:25 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 03, 2020, 07:04:58 PM
so maybe we need to develop COVID 19 Jr  and give a weaker version to everybody
That would be a vaccine.

I don't see how Sweden changed its spots nationally 6 weeks or so ago and started behaving such that this thing stopped almost on a dime.

As for schools, this would be our only hope, that this is correct, but unfortunately, if adults contracted this "preCOVID", it could well have been 10 years distant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 04, 2020, 07:34:53 AM
France already restarted in person school, a month ago, for two weeks.  They are on planned vacation since and restart in September.  My step grand kids apparently were mostly anxious to restart school.  The US is not the only country restarting obviously, but K-12 in France and most EU is controlled by central government, not local.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 04, 2020, 09:10:43 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 03, 2020, 06:35:30 PM
Definitely thinking about it.

I don't know your wife's behavior. Personally if I had it and I went into the office, I'd likely barely spread it because I rarely talk to anyone. Maybe your wife was the office social butterfly; I don't know. Nor do I know the timeframe you're talking about.

We've got a lot to learn on this thing. But the little we know doesn't really justify a belief in 50% of the population having had it at this time. Maybe that's the truth, but I'm still in the "show me" mode on that.
My wife is a social butterfly, and she was the head honcho of marketing communications for Baxter. She had a lot of meetings. Obviously she didn't know she had it. I didn't know I had it, until I had the antibody test months later.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 04, 2020, 09:13:20 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 03, 2020, 11:01:40 PM
We know what's going to happen and yet we're just going to shove people into schools......this is reason number 191383837173 why the U.S. isn't the best country in the world.  We're fucking stupid.
The US is by far the best country in the world. Go find us a better one. Good luck.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 04, 2020, 09:35:26 AM
some Moderna news

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/healthcare/modernas-vaccine-protects-16-monkeys-from-virus-30000-humans-await/articleshow/77232085.cms?from=mdr (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/healthcare/modernas-vaccine-protects-16-monkeys-from-virus-30000-humans-await/articleshow/77232085.cms?from=mdr)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 04, 2020, 10:05:59 AM
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_1770%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F9dc0ddaf-046c-4da4-913a-75dfc8ec50ed_885x293.png&t=1596549580&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1c08-17000301f400&sig=8edDqE1HZPpNInlLWDPwzg--~D) (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUsuOpSAQ_ZrrTgMiLS5cdCaZ3zAFlFzSCDZgd9tfP-V1NQkpTup1ijoYqOhSPuc9ldocBfPi7Tz0kxj52BCyXEnV-LKsGXEDH-aaD2z2QwdvoPoUr4JeSj41z3nEyejVWJAriBGt4KsAMWgG9o1rTXVEs8BhPUaDc4rhfDVuwvysdS8P8f7o_9IxNnbl0KWC-ehM2sjlN3BI94rVPK-UJfjN10f_Z6WONRH4vIF4dynZKxCWPSeXsRT_heQvFXGn2puslxedvAjJ6MN8IMVzi0xqbdTQagDRDvSQdpJctWC16DWO46SGrogONvhNEb7LPSH1uNfygq9xywtO1jBrYW3Z8GbawcLQTlxAO0q7GoVGMrSLUvKH1t7t0TV-7lnPmGKCc9Fz1fHudL9Bp9HGsj4Gtrn-v_U0ec4Qbaezd65QQtHGhaQhdBHrpdZCWdsRfT0XjKAD2lvIeiv_0qWeO84Rv0vAWjHfTlJXsZGmaYjQJvoCcd5Sjj4668sOJMY_tdXChA)
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2396%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F23ea400f-19d1-4a1c-8af8-b04afc86ace9_1198x375.png&t=1596549580&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1c08-17000301f400&sig=swkw5M9uGQGdI9KpECdwPA--~D) (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUsuOpSAQ_ZrLTsNDr7hw0ZlkfsMUUHBJI9iA02N__eB1NQkpTup1ijpoqOhSPpc9lUqOgnn1Zhn4LCY2kYYMk6Mkvqw2I27gw1LzgWQ_VPAaqk_xKuDjyGbyWrSwAmcEO0j1nPHJRibRas2tnSZtnuSiWeEwHqPGJcVwvhuTsLxq3ctDfDz473a0iX05VKmgP3udtubyGzhst8WqX1fKGvzm64P_sq1jTQ183UB8uJTMFQjrnpPLWIr_g81fKuLeam8yPl5040XYjDr0J7Z47pCOSmk5dApAdIOYsJvbQzowSnCF0zTLoS-ihw1-UoTvck_YetxrecP3uOUNuUAYKLUdmw3rBmC6k2Blp-gAVssnaJxXxmb5V0xjv0dH_MIpp1RSwZjgTPasP91PUGkysdjHQDfH_9sPyUuGaHqVvXOlJRSlXUgKQh-xXnKtLWs7oq_nihFUQHMrWW_p38LUc8cl4ncJWCvm29nklXRq05BGaFL7A3HZUo4-OuPLDk2NfzB4weA)



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 04, 2020, 10:27:01 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 04, 2020, 09:13:20 AM
The US is by far the best country in the world. Go find us a better one. Good luck.
As with most things, it's very easy to find fault with what is in front of you.  It's less apparent what the faults may be elsewhere.

I've mentioned before the wife has said NO emphatically to any thought of living in France.  I envision living in Provence and having a vineyard and making my own cult wine and eating cheese and soaking some rays all day ....

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 04, 2020, 10:31:15 AM
Just realized that I posted yesterday's COVID report rather than today's.


(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2912%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Faafd5cda-1306-47f9-9402-3e14ed758b2e_1600x529.png&t=1596549557&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1c08-17000101f400&sig=XqaGles0CKKzXxHgzya2tg--~D) (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUsuO5CAM_JrmlohnEg45jFba34gMODSaBDJAZrb365d0TishKNkul-XCQkWf8ms-UqnkLJiX4GbJtRjZSBpybFITCWVZM-IOYZtrPpEcp9mChRpSvAhcKabJcwYjjZ4GCm7QkvFBNLowlgltpVB2JJfMAqcLGC3O-I35lSKSbX7WepSH-Hjw3-1YF_tymlLBfvY27S0UdvDY3hWrfV4lyxb2UB_819oa1tTA1w3Eh0_JXYltOXLyGUsJ39jipSIejXuLcXXJqUuwXea0n9jyuUOqjLGT7AyA6KQYsdOKTR04I7jBcdST7IvoYYe_KcJPuSdsPe6tvOF73PKGAKtT1kHHBB06Oa6605LyTiCT6EY1GY4LGyj9o7juj-hJmDnllE5UMsY1H3rWKz1scdduCPiQdPf8v_2QPGeIrjc5eF9aQTHWb8nA1kesl1tLq9rPGOprwQhmQ3cbWW_n377U14FzxJ-yYa2Y72Bzd2JMKkqaoEvtC8R5TzmG6F0oBzQ3_gFRK78K)
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2912%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F0b46a460-1916-4171-b1db-79d09bc4d243_1600x502.png&t=1596549557&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1c08-17000101f400&sig=cSwn0NCcLgjSxxJwPxRNoA--~D) (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUsuOpSAQ_ZrLTgNYiCxcdCaZ3zA8Si5pBRuwe-58_eB1NQkpTup1ijpYXdGn_JqPVCo5C-YluBm4GiSTpCHHJjGRUJY1I-46bHPNJ5LjNFuwuoYUrwIuBFPkOYPhSjCgKzgAKZhctQQNyGAawEpDLppFny5gtDjjN-ZXiki2-VnrUR7Dx4P_bse62JfTlKrtZ2_T3lxh1x7bvWK1zytl2cIe6oP_WlvDmhr4usHw4VNyV2Bbjpx8xlLCNzZ_qYhHq73JuLjoxEXYjDntJ7Z47pAKY-wEndF66GCQ2LVHTZ12ZuAGpVQT9GXo9a7_pqh_yj1h63Fv5Q3f45Y3pAZGDSPtmGJjB0yyzjBnOqkcVcaC4zAsbKT0j6C8P6InYeaUUzpRYIwrPvasF2rc4q7cGPABdPf8v_2QPGcdXW9y8L60hGKs35LRWx-xXmotLWs_Y6ivBaM2G7pbyHor_9alvg6cI_6UDWvFfDubuhNjIChphC61LxDnPeUYonehHLqp8Q85zr4F)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 04, 2020, 10:50:42 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on August 04, 2020, 02:21:52 AM
I distrust what we are doing with school reopenings. In June most of us were being convinced with warmer weather the virus would be tamped down. It wasn't tamped down. It plateaued or rose in most parts of the USA, so now school reopenings appear contraindicated, and yet we are a stubborn people being led down a path like sheep into a position that will most probably appear hopeless.
Remember Page 555 of this thread, and either diss me, or memorialize this post circa 10/12/2020. I have big shoulders, either way.
A few of you are generalizing.

Our schools in Austin aren't reopening in person, they're doing the first 3 weeks online-only, and then they're going to reevaluate on 9/8.  Since I don't see any chance in finding that the situation is any more, nor less, dangerous than it is currently, I anticipate the districts to kick the can down the road and stay online-only for another 4-6 weeks.  But on 10/8, the situation still won't be any more nor less dangerous than it was on 9/8.  Same goes for 11/8 and 12/8.

I don't see any way that our schools in Austin will reopen in-person for the entire Fall of 2020.  A lot of other places will do the same thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 04, 2020, 10:55:51 AM
Quote from: utee94 on August 04, 2020, 10:50:42 AM
A few of you are generalizing.

Our schools in Austin aren't reopening in person, they're doing the first 3 weeks online-only, and then they're going to reevaluate on 9/8.  Since I don't see any chance in finding that the situation is any more, nor less, dangerous than it is currently, I anticipate the districts to kick the can down the road and stay online-only for another 4-6 weeks.  But on 10/8, the situation still won't be any more nor less dangerous than it was on 9/8.  Same goes for 11/8 and 12/8.

I don't see any way that our schools in Austin will reopen in-person for the entire Fall of 2020.  A lot of other places will do the same thing.

Well, it's easy. If people start thinking about others before themselves, and start putting "reducing the spread" ahead of their own instant self-gratification, we can get the numbers to a level where reopening would be quite safe.

So... Not until we get a vaccine. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 04, 2020, 11:07:32 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 04, 2020, 10:55:51 AM
Well, it's easy. If people start thinking about others before themselves, and start putting "reducing the spread" ahead of their own instant self-gratification, we can get the numbers to a level where reopening would be quite safe.

So... Not until we get a vaccine.
so, we get the numbers to where reopening would be quite safe, then we reopen and pack kids into classrooms and the spread comes back?
or you're simply saying shutdown until we get an effective vaccine?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 04, 2020, 11:09:55 AM
The National Institutes of Health announced Tuesday it is starting two trials testing whether an experimental antibody drug can work as a safe and effective treatment in patients with Covid-19.

The trials, called ACTIV-2 and ACTIV-3, will look at U.S. drugmaker Eli Lilly’s experimental treatment known as LY-CoV555, which is being developed in partnership with Canadian biotech AbCellera. The companies announced Monday they began a phase three trial testing whether the treatment can prevent the spread of coronavirus in residents and staff at nursing homes.

One of the trials will test Eli Lilly’s experimental treatment on people with mild to moderate Covid-19 symptoms who have not been hospitalized.

The second trial, in a late stage, will look patients who have been hospitalized with mild to moderate Covid-19 with fewer than 13 days of symptoms and aims to enroll a total of 1,000 people. Once selected for the trial, participants will be randomly assigned to receive either an intravenous infusion of the drug or a saline placebo infusion.

Participants will also receive standard care, including doses of Gilead Sciences antiviral drug remdesivir. Participants will be assessed after five days and followed for 90 days after enrolling in the trial.


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/04/coronavirus-us-begins-2-trials-testing-eli-lillys-coronavirus-antibody-drug.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/04/coronavirus-us-begins-2-trials-testing-eli-lillys-coronavirus-antibody-drug.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 04, 2020, 11:13:27 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 04, 2020, 11:07:32 AM
so, we get the numbers to where reopening would be quite safe, then we reopen and pack kids into classrooms and the spread comes back?
or you're simply saying shutdown until we get an effective vaccine?

Yeah, this.  Those that believe that child-to-adult transmission is likely, aren't going to believe it's any LESS likely, one month from now, two months from now, or six months from now. 

Declining numbers in cases/hospitalizations is a good thing of course, but since school still isn't back in session, it's not really a meaningful trend for those who are concerned about child-to-adult transmission.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 04, 2020, 11:14:09 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 04, 2020, 11:09:55 AM
The National Institutes of Health announced Tuesday it is starting two trials testing whether an experimental antibody drug can work as a safe and effective treatment in patients with Covid-19.

The trials, called ACTIV-2 and ACTIV-3, will look at U.S. drugmaker Eli Lilly’s experimental treatment known as LY-CoV555, which is being developed in partnership with Canadian biotech AbCellera. The companies announced Monday they began a phase three trial testing whether the treatment can prevent the spread of coronavirus in residents and staff at nursing homes.

One of the trials will test Eli Lilly’s experimental treatment on people with mild to moderate Covid-19 symptoms who have not been hospitalized.

The second trial, in a late stage, will look patients who have been hospitalized with mild to moderate Covid-19 with fewer than 13 days of symptoms and aims to enroll a total of 1,000 people. Once selected for the trial, participants will be randomly assigned to receive either an intravenous infusion of the drug or a saline placebo infusion.

Participants will also receive standard care, including doses of Gilead Sciences antiviral drug remdesivir. Participants will be assessed after five days and followed for 90 days after enrolling in the trial.


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/04/coronavirus-us-begins-2-trials-testing-eli-lillys-coronavirus-antibody-drug.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/04/coronavirus-us-begins-2-trials-testing-eli-lillys-coronavirus-antibody-drug.html)
Thats great but why are they not also testing against non positive folks to see if they can avoid the virus
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 04, 2020, 11:17:37 AM
why are they not requiring all students teachers and all other family members be tested before sending the child to school
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 04, 2020, 11:22:25 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 04, 2020, 11:17:37 AM
why are they not requiring all students teachers and all other family members be tested before sending the child to school
5 million students in Texas schools, and another half-million or so teachers, administrators, and staffers.  Pretty sure we don't have anywhere near the testing capability for that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 04, 2020, 11:29:17 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 04, 2020, 11:07:32 AM
so, we get the numbers to where reopening would be quite safe, then we reopen and pack kids into classrooms and the spread comes back?
or you're simply saying shutdown until we get an effective vaccine?
If you get the numbers low enough, you should be able to manage the spread with testing and contact tracing. If you then allowed some kids to come back (keeping distance learning as an option for the others) and those kids physically distanced and wore masks, maybe it wouldn't explode. 

My point was that Americans have decided they're just going to live with this thing, and they aren't going to limit their own behavior to reduce the spread. Which means you'll never get the numbers that low. So we're probably stuck waiting for a vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 04, 2020, 11:33:06 AM
If "we" are not willing to modify behaviors to limit spread, why are the numbers turning down?

The theories for this have been:

1.  The numbers scared people into limiting contact and wearing masks etc. (modifying behaviors);
2.  Additional government restrictions (in some states);
3.  Some kind of resistance in a sizeable percentage of the population so we hit herd immunity early.
4.  The virus has changed somehow.
5.  Something unknown.
6.  Some combination of the above.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on August 04, 2020, 11:35:49 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 04, 2020, 09:13:20 AM
The US is by far the best country in the world. Go find us a better one. Good luck.
Amen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 04, 2020, 11:39:58 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 04, 2020, 11:29:17 AM
If you get the numbers low enough, you should be able to manage the spread with testing and contact tracing. If you then allowed some kids to come back (keeping distance learning as an option for the others) and those kids physically distanced and wore masks, maybe it wouldn't explode.

My point was that Americans have decided they're just going to live with this thing, and they aren't going to limit their own behavior to reduce the spread. Which means you'll never get the numbers that low. So we're probably stuck waiting for a vaccine.
Yeah again, I think you're talking in generalities and this is very much a regional issue.

In Austin and other major Texas cities, the numbers for hospitalizations/ICU/vents have been on a decline since around 7/21. This is being labeled as a result of bars closing down again, mandatory mask-use directives in place in those major cities (and a few weeks later, across the entire state), and a general return to more strict distancing and less risky behavior.

But that's not going to change the fact that if you're concerned about child-to-adult transmission, then you're not going to believe the schools are any safer 6 months from now, than you currently do, because along with the belief I always see the "children are nothing but little petri dishes and it's bound to spread in schools" type of comments.  Which is true in general, but it seems to NOT actually be all that true with this particular virus. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on August 04, 2020, 11:45:47 AM
My family went on vacation in Michigan last week.  We stayed in Grand Haven but spent time in places like South Haven, Holland and Saugatuck.  Outside, most people did not wear masks.  Inside, everyone had a mask.  Most towns converted streets into one ways so restaurants could expand outdoor seating.  There were no scenes... no complaints... everyone just adjusted and tried to give each other space. 

I have no idea if I've had COVID or not... I do know, I would feel 10x more confident in not getting it in Michigan vs Missouri.  Each community is setting there own rules which has led locals to do their own thing most of the time. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 04, 2020, 11:52:26 AM
Quote from: Entropy on August 04, 2020, 11:45:47 AM
My family went on vacation in Michigan last week.  We stayed in Grand Haven but spent time in places like South Haven, Holland and Saugatuck.  Outside, most people did not wear masks.  Inside, everyone had a mask.  Most towns converted streets into one ways so restaurants could expand outdoor seating.  There were no scenes... no complaints... everyone just adjusted and tried to give each other space. 

I have no idea if I've had COVID or not... I do know, I would feel 10x more confident in not getting it in Michigan vs Missouri.  Each community is setting there own rules which has led locals to do their own thing most of the time. 
even though Mich has a death rate 3 times higher then Mo
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 04, 2020, 12:15:00 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 04, 2020, 11:14:09 AM
Thats great but why are they not also testing against non positive folks to see if they can avoid the virus
I didn't paste the entire article, perhaps they are
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 04, 2020, 12:16:46 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 04, 2020, 11:33:06 AM
If "we" are not willing to modify behaviors to limit spread, why are the numbers turning down?

The theories for this have been:

1.  The numbers scared people into limiting contact and wearing masks etc. (modifying behaviors);
2.  Additional government restrictions (in some states);
3.  Some kind of resistance in a sizeable percentage of the population so we hit herd immunity early.
4.  The virus has changed somehow.
5.  Something unknown.
6.  Some combination of the above.
I do think people are modifying behaviors. I don't think they're modifying behaviors NEARLY enough to get the numbers down to the sorts of levels seen in Europe or Asia where you'd call the levels very low. I honestly doubt it's possible to get numbers that low without continued lockdowns, which we don't have the stomach for at this point. 

Even then, it's questionable whether that's a good strategy. We haven't seen what will happen in Europe now that they're reopening, and what will happen when their kids go to school. Maybe they'll have a second wave and all that lockdown would have been for naught because I doubt they'll get that genie back in the bottle once they've opened.

As I've said, it's all about R0... And when it comes to behavior, this popular chart is pretty solid:


(https://i.imgur.com/6ZONDqv.png)

If people go out to a bar or brunch with someone not from their household and takes their mask off to eat/drink, you're immediately at "highest". If people go to a salon and get a haircut or get nails done, and both are masked, you're at "low" but still nonzero risk because you can't realistically distance. If you go out to the grocery store and everyone is masked and trying to stay far apart, you still have nonzero risk but it's very low.

The bottom is "practically none". If we all could do that, we could knock R0 down to basically zero and crush this virus. But we can't and won't all do that. Some people simply HAVE to be out of the house for work, and we won't accept a lockdown of that severity because of how severely even the limited lockdowns we have affected our freedoms. 

So behavior modification might bring down new case rates. It might even get R0 below 1, for a while, until people start getting lax in their behavior again. But R0=0.9 isn't going to get us down to case rates where testing and contact tracing would be sufficient within an acceptable timeline to get kids into school, and the minute we start seeing case rates dropping we'll likely see behavior change and R0 go back above 1 for a while. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 04, 2020, 12:19:44 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 04, 2020, 11:52:26 AM
even though Mich has a death rate 3 times higher then Mo
in Detroit 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 04, 2020, 01:48:02 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 04, 2020, 12:19:44 PM
in Detroit
Detroit is by far the highest so if youre gonna exclude it then you have to exclude the St Louis area as well 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 04, 2020, 02:26:00 PM
fine, Entropy wasn't vacationing in big cities
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 04, 2020, 02:35:47 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 04, 2020, 02:26:00 PM
fine, Entropy wasn't vacationing in big cities
well I think you need to do at least 3 work sheets of analysis on this in the spirit of this thread
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 04, 2020, 02:39:28 PM
you really don't pay much attention to my contributions here, do you?

if I can't cut & paste it, it doesn't get posted
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 04, 2020, 02:46:17 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 04, 2020, 02:39:28 PM
you really don't pay much attention to my contributions here, do you?

if I can't cut & paste it, it doesn't get posted
yep you can cut and paste with the best of em
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on August 04, 2020, 02:55:19 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 04, 2020, 11:52:26 AM
even though Mich has a death rate 3 times higher then Mo


It's blowing up around us...  As FF said, I wasn't vacationing in Detroit.  I was comparing where we vacationed to where I live.    That's all.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 04, 2020, 03:19:03 PM
Quote from: Entropy on August 04, 2020, 02:55:19 PM

It's blowing up around us...  As FF said, I wasn't vacationing in Detroit.  I was comparing where we vacationed to where I live.    That's all. 
I guess thats ok just dont do it again
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 04, 2020, 03:22:39 PM
https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/)

Starting to turn down in GA, just in time too.  If this is because "we" recently got religion, it should keep coming down to some point and then go back up again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 04, 2020, 03:23:51 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 04, 2020, 03:19:03 PM
I guess thats ok just dont do it again
Ent lives in one of those poorly run cities, that Badger eludes too
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 04, 2020, 03:37:58 PM
3 negative Covid tests later- including blood draws on The second 2.... my better half has pneumonia.   

My CVS test, taken Saturday, came in this am so 3 days.  Negative.  

Would never have guessed it.  No chest congestion, cough, or anything I normally see.  Glad it isn’t  the Rona.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 04, 2020, 03:40:13 PM
Glad it's not the 'rona... Hopefully now that it's identified she's just getting some typical pneumonia treatment? Is she starting to mend?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 04, 2020, 03:43:12 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 04, 2020, 02:39:28 PM
if I can't cut & paste it, it doesn't get posted
Too tired from playing with your putter and lifting Bud Fat,huh?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 04, 2020, 03:45:00 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 04, 2020, 03:22:39 PM
https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/)

Starting to turn down in GA, just in time too.  If this is because "we" recently got religion, it should keep coming down to some point and then go back up again.
Testify CD Testify
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 04, 2020, 03:45:16 PM
Yesterday was the first day in nearly a month that the national daily deaths were lower than the number 7 days prior. Mon Jul 27 was 597, and Monday Apr 3 was 567. With the exception of one Tuesday in mid-July, every other week has seen consistent increases. 

Hopefully this holds the rest of the week. The 7-day moving average of cases is down more than 10% from its peak, so hopefully that means we're on a downslope for a while.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 04, 2020, 03:53:05 PM
My doc just ordered me up a pneumonia vaccine shot.  I guess that's a good thing, I don't know if it was viral or bacterial.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 04, 2020, 04:02:42 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 04, 2020, 03:37:58 PM
3 negative Covid tests later- including blood draws on The second 2.... my better half has pneumonia. 

My CVS test, taken Saturday, came in this am so 3 days.  Negative. 

Would never have guessed it.  No chest congestion, cough, or anything I normally see.  Glad it isn’t  the Rona. 
Thats great (that its not covid) penicillin here we come

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 04, 2020, 04:36:31 PM
Novavax’s potential vaccine to prevent Covid-19 generated a promising immune response in an early-stage clinical trial, the U.S.-based biotech firm announced Tuesday.

The phase one trial included 131 healthy participants between ages 18 and 59 at two sites in Australia. Novavax said 106 participants received one of four dose levels of the potential vaccine, named NVX-CoV2373, with or without an adjuvant, which is an ingredient designed to enhance the immune response. The remaining 25 patients received a placebo.

Participants received two doses of the potential vaccine via intramuscular injection approximately 21 days apart, the company said.

The vaccine produced neutralizing antibodies, which researchers believe is necessary to build immunity to the virus, and killer T-cells, the company said. Additionally, the neutralizing antibodies that were produced were higher than those seen in people who have recovered from Covid-19, the company said. The immune response was also stronger for those who had the adjuvant, the company said.

Novavax said the vaccine was well tolerated with no serious adverse events reported. Most patients reported tenderness and pain at the injection after the first dose, with some patients also reporting headaches, fatigue or muscle aches. Only one participant in the trial experienced a mild fever after a second dose, the company said. Eight patients had reactions that required hospitalizations, though they were resolved after a few days.

Despite the data, shares of the company were down as much as 32% in after-hours trading.


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/04/novavaxs-coronavirus-vaccine-shows-promise-in-early-stage-trial.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/04/novavaxs-coronavirus-vaccine-shows-promise-in-early-stage-trial.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 04, 2020, 05:09:36 PM
8% had reactions that required hospitalization? I'd like a little more info on what that was... Hoping it was just overwhelming caution since it's a new trial, and not extremely severe reactions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 04, 2020, 05:17:36 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 04, 2020, 03:45:16 PM
Yesterday was the first day in nearly a month that the national daily deaths were lower than the number 7 days prior. Mon Jul 27 was 597, and Monday Apr 3 was 567. With the exception of one Tuesday in mid-July, every other week has seen consistent increases.

Hopefully this holds the rest of the week. The 7-day moving average of cases is down more than 10% from its peak, so hopefully that means we're on a downslope for a while.
Antibiotics through IV today to determine if it is bacterial or viral. ( they think Bacterial)

They predict improvement in 24-36 hours.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 04, 2020, 05:23:49 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 04, 2020, 05:09:36 PM
8% had reactions that required hospitalization? I'd like a little more info on what that was... Hoping it was just overwhelming caution since it's a new trial, and not extremely severe reactions.
8% is higher than are hospitalized by COVID
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on August 04, 2020, 05:35:38 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 04, 2020, 02:26:00 PM
fine, Entropy wasn't vacationing in big cities
who the fuh vacations in Detroit? Lmao.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 04, 2020, 05:43:20 PM
not Husker fans
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 04, 2020, 05:50:43 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 04, 2020, 05:23:49 PM
8% is higher than are hospitalized by COVID
Exactly. On the bright side, there were no deaths, but everyone in the trial was 18 to 59 years old, and it was only 101 given the true [rather than control] shot. So it might not be a large enough sample size.

That said, a vaccine trial, I'm sure, has an insane level of control over the participants. So it's possible that those 8 who were hospitalized didn't even have a severe enough reaction that any of us would go beyond urgent care at worst for it. But given that it was a new vaccine trial, maybe even mild responses warranted a hospital stay for observation in case something worse happened (which per the story, didn't). 

So I'm not saying 8% hospitalization is anywhere near as bad of a red flag as it sounds. I just want more information. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on August 04, 2020, 05:55:55 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 04, 2020, 05:17:36 PM
Antibiotics through IV today to determine if it is bacterial or viral. ( they think Bacterial)

They predict improvement in 24-36 hours. 
Good luck!  And it illustrates a problem coming our way, which is how the traditional cold and flu season is going to wreck havoc on normal day to day operations.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 04, 2020, 06:27:26 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on August 04, 2020, 05:55:55 PM
Good luck!  And it illustrates a problem coming our way, which is how the traditional cold and flu season is going to wreck havoc on normal day to day operations. 
Not sure I necessarily agree... I think our cold and flu season is going to be more mild than it perhaps has nearly ever been.

We're doing pretty unprecedented things in this country to mitigate COVID.


Given that COVID is still widely believed to be more transmissible than the flu, all the things we're doing to restrain COVID transmission should work even more effectively on the flu.

So I think we're going to see the weakest flu season we've seen in the last decade, by far. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 04, 2020, 06:38:37 PM
Yeah, it won't be a traditional flu season almost certainly, though there always is a chance we get blindsided with something not in the vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 04, 2020, 06:42:04 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on August 04, 2020, 05:35:38 PM
who the fuh vacations in Detroit? Lmao.
All the geniuses complaining that bowl games are in warm climates and unfair.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 04, 2020, 06:43:17 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on August 04, 2020, 05:55:55 PM
Good luck!  And it illustrates a problem coming our way, which is how the traditional cold and flu season is going to wreck havoc on normal day to day operations. 
Covid has wiped out a large % of the population that would be most susceptible to dying from the (coming) flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 04, 2020, 06:44:32 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 04, 2020, 03:22:39 PM
https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/)

Starting to turn down in GA, just in time too.  If this is because "we" recently got religion, it should keep coming down to some point and then go back up again.
Don't worry, GA will be a hotspot again in about 3 weeks.  Zero social distancing going on in newly-opened schools there (not all, but plenty of visual evidence).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 04, 2020, 06:47:32 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 04, 2020, 09:13:20 AM
The US is by far the best country in the world. Go find us a better one. Good luck.
If you say it enough times, it'll come true?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 04, 2020, 06:52:32 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 04, 2020, 06:43:17 PM
Covid has wiped out a large % of the population that would be most susceptible to dying from the (coming) flu.
No, not a large % at all. There's something like 52M people in the US who are 65 or older. We've had ~160K COVID deaths and if you assume 80% are in the 65 and over crowd, that's 128K deaths.

That accounts to 0.25% of the 65-and-older cohort in our society. 

I don't want to get into cases because I doubt our ~5M cases are equally distributed across age groups. It wouldn't surprise me at all if our cases actually skew much younger than flu cases because it's the young people going out and being dumb these days while the older people hunker down more. 

So there is still a HUGE proportion of people still alive who are vulnerable to the flu. And it will be COVID mitigation that protects them from the flu even more effectively than it protects them from COVID.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 04, 2020, 06:53:27 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 04, 2020, 06:42:04 PM
All the geniuses complaining that bowl games are in warm climates and unfair.
As opposed to the Tinkerbells that don't think that the Green Bays,Pittsburghs and New Englands don't have a cold weather home field advantage
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on August 04, 2020, 06:55:02 PM
(https://ruinmyweek.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/iZF2Pnw.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on August 04, 2020, 06:55:50 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 04, 2020, 06:47:32 PM
If you say it enough times, it'll come true?
Go live in China then commie.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on August 04, 2020, 07:13:55 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on August 04, 2020, 06:55:50 PM
Go live in China then commie.
If he waits long enough maybe China will move here
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 04, 2020, 07:18:27 PM
We could get lucky and he gets Shanghaied
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 04, 2020, 07:19:51 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on August 04, 2020, 06:55:50 PM
Go live in China then commie.
That'd drive them bats
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 04, 2020, 07:25:24 PM
I don't know that I'd enjoy living in China long-term, but I really do enjoy visiting. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on August 04, 2020, 07:27:27 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 04, 2020, 07:25:24 PM
I don't know that I'd enjoy living in China long-term, but I really do enjoy visiting.
Gross.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on August 04, 2020, 07:34:45 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 04, 2020, 07:25:24 PM
I don't know that I'd enjoy living in China long-term, but I really do enjoy visiting.
I'm on the fence. Sometimes I think it would be awesome and sometimes not so much.  What did you enjoy?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 04, 2020, 07:48:24 PM
The Corona Beer
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 04, 2020, 07:50:41 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on August 04, 2020, 07:34:45 PM
I'm on the fence. Sometimes I think it would be awesome and sometimes not so much.  What did you enjoy?
To be fair, I've only spent time in Shenzhen and Shanghai. I've spent much more time in Taipei, but obviously that's not China. 

So Shenzhen and Shanghai are obviously very modern cities. Shanghai in particular is basically glittering because it's brand freakin' new. 

But in general it gave all the advantages of a large city but had its own unique feel compared to where I've traveled in North America or Europe. Business-wise, it seemed to have a more free-wheeling "let's get sh!t done" aspect than anything else. I feel like the Chinese do business much like Americans do business, where the Japanese do business much more like Europeans do business. It's all about results and less about tradition. 

I personally love the food. American Chinese food doesn't hold a candle to the real thing. Here everything is over-sauced and too sweet. Over there you get all sorts of complexity that I think is dumbed down at your typical American Chinese restaurant. There are certainly things that are "unconventional" to western palates, but I never went into the heart of China for the really outlandish stuff. 

That said, while I enjoyed my time in China, I really find myself enjoying Taipei even more. It's a really unique place--a mix of indigenous population, Chinese expats who fled the revolution, Japanese influence from their conquest in WWII. Then as it grew as an economic power outside of communist China, it attracted a bunch of other folks from the region. It's a smorgasbord of cultures and cuisines and people. I'd love to go back there... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on August 04, 2020, 08:36:29 PM
That sounds awesome. Honestly my trepidation comes down to modern comfort frights. Squat toilets - :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 04, 2020, 10:12:36 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on August 04, 2020, 06:55:50 PM
Go live in China then commie.
Good one.  A real zinger.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 04, 2020, 10:14:31 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 04, 2020, 06:52:32 PM
No, not a large % at all. There's something like 52M people in the US who are 65 or older. We've had ~160K COVID deaths and if you assume 80% are in the 65 and over crowd, that's 128K deaths.

That accounts to 0.25% of the 65-and-older cohort in our society.

I don't want to get into cases because I doubt our ~5M cases are equally distributed across age groups. It wouldn't surprise me at all if our cases actually skew much younger than flu cases because it's the young people going out and being dumb these days while the older people hunker down more.

So there is still a HUGE proportion of people still alive who are vulnerable to the flu. And it will be COVID mitigation that protects them from the flu even more effectively than it protects them from COVID.
I appreciate the math and the effort and all, but you're going way overboard.  I was saying that those killed by Covid are the first ones a bad flu would get, not that a large % of old people have died.  I must've worded it pretty badly for you to make that leap.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 05, 2020, 09:27:17 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 04, 2020, 06:47:32 PM
If you say it enough times, it'll come true?
If you bash the USA enough times, will you find a better country?

Dead serious. Show me a better one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 05, 2020, 09:27:36 AM
I got my COVID test, that was not pleasant, both nostrils, count to ten, yuck.  I think I'm a wuss, but the wife complained about hers as well and she's not a wuss, at all.

Should get result tomorrow or Friday.  It was very efficiently run, just unpleasant, I would personally avoid having it done again.

The wife had her first PT today and it went well, they took off the primary bandage.  It the same PTist she had for her hip revision surgery.

So, I'm next, right shoulder, Monday 0615.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 05, 2020, 09:29:44 AM
If I had to leave the US (Heaven forbid), Canada would be first on my list, probably Vancouver etc.  Switzerland is interesting, to me.  I hear folks like Portugal, my EU friends talk about retiring there, or some already have.  

I think we Americans tend to see all the bad and fail to appreciate all the good, of which there is quite a bit in comparison to other places.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 05, 2020, 09:53:54 AM
If I had to live in another country Id pick New Zealand

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 05, 2020, 10:23:02 AM
I'd go to a tropical island in the Caribbean.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 05, 2020, 10:31:42 AM
https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/#more-26449 (https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/#more-26449)

A key reason for variability in susceptibility to COVID-19 given exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 virus causing is that the immune systems of a substantial proportion (35% to 80%) of unexposed individuals have T-cells, circulating antibodies or other components that are cross-reactive to SARS-CoV-2 and can be expected to provide substantial resistance to it.[6] (https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/#_edn6) [7] (https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/#_edn7) [8] (https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/#_edn8) [9] (https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/#_edn9) Such components likely arise from past exposure to common cold or other coronaviruses, or to influenza.[10] (https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/#_edn10) Not being specific to SARS-CoV-2, and typically not being antibodies, such immune system components are not normally detected in seroprevalence or other tests for immunity to SARS-CoV-2.

I will end with a follow up to my June 28th article (https://www.nicholaslewis.org/the-progress-of-the-covid-19-epidemic-in-sweden-an-analysis/) focusing on Sweden. In it, I concluded that it was likely the HIT had been surpassed in the three largest Swedish regions, and in the country as a whole, by the end of April notwithstanding that COVID-19-specific antibodies had only been detected in 6.3% of the population.[11] (https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/#_edn11)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on August 05, 2020, 10:44:49 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 05, 2020, 09:27:17 AM
If you bash the USA enough times, will you find a better country?

Dead serious. Show me a better one.
He's clearly never been anywhere else and just talking out of his internet ass.

I've been to probably close to 20 countries. And I enjoyed my travels in them all. But I would absolutely never live anywhere else but the USA. The only other place I could imagine myself living part time might be Barcelona. But that's it.

Every single country has drawbacks and negatives. Not just the USA. There is no perfect country and no perfect place to live. Out of all the places I've ever been, not a single one of them beats the US. We have it so good here, and you don't realize that until you actually get out in the world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 05, 2020, 10:49:21 AM
My company has facilities in the UK, Brussels, Frankfurt, Japan, and Singapore, among others.  I chatted with our coworkers many times and visited their homes.  The folks at the same level as me in the company had a significantly lower standard of living.  They would comment to me about that when they would visit us in our home.

It's certainly not a poor standard of living, it's not a hell hole by any means.  But it means smaller houses, smaller yards, smaller cars, more expensive energy, having walls around your home because the police (in France anyway) don't bother with property crime, etc.  My wife says the same thing.  

My buddy in France was President of the company and said he only moved back to France because his grandkids live there.  He had a much nicer house i Cincy than he does now in France.  He has some killer wines though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on August 05, 2020, 10:52:07 AM
If I had to live in another country, probably Colombia. Why?


(https://nitrocdn.com/ZDOiQBZqcIHVHBhUmnBrcCHELpkpiFgD/assets/static/optimized/rev-0fb7952/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/sexy-colombian-girls-from-colombia.jpg)(https://www.themasculinetraveler.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/colombian-women.jpg)(https://sillyseason.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Countries-With-The-Hottest-Female-Football-Fans-Colombian-fans-hot.jpg)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 05, 2020, 10:59:46 AM
Take it to the stream, fellas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 05, 2020, 11:30:38 AM
Houston Methodist reports rapid recovery of critically ill COVID-19 patients with new drug



https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2020/08/05/houston-methodist-reports-rapid-recovery-of-covid-19-patients-with-new-drug/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=snd&utm_content=kprc2 (https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2020/08/05/houston-methodist-reports-rapid-recovery-of-covid-19-patients-with-new-drug/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=snd&utm_content=kprc2)


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 05, 2020, 11:46:55 AM
https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/neurorx-relief-aviptadil-data/ (https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/neurorx-relief-aviptadil-data/)

Aviptadil is a formulation of Vasoactive Intestinal Polypeptide (VIP), which is present in high concentrations in the lungs and known to block various inflammatory cytokines. NeuroRx and Relief partnered to develop the drug in Covid-19 indication.

The drug candidate secured fast track designation from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to treat respiratory distress associated with Covid-19.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 05, 2020, 11:54:28 AM
I like good news. This is good news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 05, 2020, 11:59:09 AM
This appears to combat that cytokine explosion I have mentioned previously as a serious problem in seriously ill patients.  This probably does little for folks who are less seriously ill.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 05, 2020, 12:03:43 PM
I'm all for anything that helps something.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 05, 2020, 12:44:56 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 05, 2020, 11:59:09 AM
This appears to combat that cytokine explosion I have mentioned previously as a serious problem in seriously ill patients.  This probably does little for folks who are less seriously ill.
That said, I wonder if it acts as well in some of those patients who may not have had extremely serious symptoms, but could it reduce or prevent long-term damage to the lungs or heart in patients?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 05, 2020, 12:47:09 PM
It certainly could, the CE is probably what damages the heart and lungs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 05, 2020, 12:48:45 PM
Links HERE (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/03/us/school-closing-coronavirus.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20200804&instance_id=20953&nl=the-morning&regi_id=135791029&segment_id=35161&te=1&user_id=5ae6a4be0f2d03e8cc260e0727a723c5)

The New York Times
As the Coronavirus Comes to School, a Tough Choice: When to Close
As schools in the South and the Midwest reopen this week, officials must decide what steps to take as staff members and students test positive.
Sarah MervoshShawn Hubler
By Sarah Mervosh and Shawn Hubler
Published Aug. 3, 2020
Updated Aug. 5, 2020, 10:16 a.m. ET

More than 200 employees have been barred from work in Georgia’s largest school district. A high school in Indiana had to shift to online learning after just two days. And students in Mississippi were forced to quarantine after classmates tested positive for the coronavirus during the first week of classes.

The new academic year is off to a chaotic start as schools open in some parts of the country while infections continue to rage. Already in the South and the Midwest, students and teachers have brought the virus to school with them, triggering quarantines, delayed openings and temporary shutdowns as positive tests roll in.

With the first schools open barely a week, one question is quickly arising: How many positive cases should it take to close down again?

It is a question to which education leaders have received vague, sometimes conflicting answers from state and local officials, with widely varying standards in different parts of the country.

In New York City, two cases in unrelated classrooms would be enough to trigger a temporary closure of an entire school, which could be extended for two weeks. But California’s rules say its schools should shut down if 5 percent of the staff and students test positive, which in large schools could mean scores of cases. Mississippi guidelines say that schools “may consider dismissal” if at least three classrooms have simultaneous outbreaks.

Federal recommendations also leave the decisions largely up to schools, saying that “a single case of Covid-19 in a school would not likely warrant closing the entire school.”

The uncertainty means that superintendents and other administrators are being asked to make decisions for which they are often ill-equipped, said Noelle Ellerson Ng, an associate executive director at AASA, the School Superintendents Association.

“Do districts know enough? They don’t,” she said, adding, “They’re not experts on pandemics.”

The rash of positive cases during the first week of school foreshadows a stop-and-start year in which students and staff members may have to bounce between instruction in the classroom and remotely at home because of infections and quarantines.

Many of the nation’s largest school districts have already announced that they will begin the school year with remote learning because infections in their communities are too widespread. That includes Los Angeles, the nation’s second-largest district, which reached a deal on Monday with the local teachers’ union that would establish a remote learning schedule that resembles a typical school day more closely than home instruction did in the spring.

In Maryland, Gov. Larry Hogan issued an emergency order counteracting Montgomery County’s health department, which said on Friday that all private schools needed to start the year remotely, just as public schools in the region were planning.

Montgomery County is home to some of the nation’s most prestigious private schools, including St. Andrew’s Episcopal School, attended by President Trump’s youngest child. Mr. Hogan, a Republican, said the county’s closure order was overly broad and “inconsistent with the powers intended to be delegated to the county health officer.”

Mr. Trump, who has pressured schools to reopen and threatened to withhold federal funding from those that do not teach in person, renewed his call on Monday, tweeting first “Open the Schools!” and later “OPEN THE SCHOOLS!!!”

But some public health experts doubt that schools that open classrooms in hard-hit parts of the country will be able to avoid shutdowns for long.

“It’s simply not possible,” said Dr. Peter Hotez, dean for the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston, adding that “there’s just too much virus transmission” across a significant portion of the United States, particularly the Sun Belt, for schools there to avoid major outbreaks.

“As soon as you open classrooms, within two weeks, teachers and students will get sick, bus drivers will get sick, and staff will get sick,” Dr. Hotez said. “And all it’s going to take is one teacher admitted to the hospital in the school district and that’s it, it’s going to be lights out and no one will show up to work.”

While school will not start in some parts of the country for several weeks, about 14 percent of American children typically go back by the first full week of August, mostly in the South and parts of the Midwest.

It took no time at all for the virus to appear in hallways and classrooms after schools started in Indiana on Thursday. At Greenfield Central Junior High School, outside Indianapolis, a student received a positive test on the very first day of classes, and students who had been in close contact were told to quarantine for 14 days.

In Elwood, Ind., a community of about 8,000 in the central part of the state, the superintendent of the Elwood Community School Corporation sent out a note on Saturday thanking students and parents for “a great first two days of school!” But the optimistic tone quickly gave way: Several staff members had tested positive for the virus, he wrote, and one employee at the high school had potentially exposed other staff members.

Students in seventh through 12th grades are now spending this week learning online. Officials plan to return to in-classroom learning as soon as next week.

That is the right response, according to Dr. Troy Abbott, president of the Board of Health for Madison County, which includes much of Elwood. Without state requirements, he said, the county has been recommending that schools stay open unless they exceed an average of 24 cases per day over a seven-day period.

“We don’t have a vaccine, and I don’t know that we should wait around for a vaccine,” Dr. Abbott said, citing recommendations from the American Academy of Pediatrics that it is important for children to be physically present in school. He also noted that younger people are less likely to get seriously sick from the coronavirus.

“Our hospitals are not overworked, they are not overwhelmed, we have not been busy for over a month, and getting kids back to school is a very reasonable option,” he said.

But some public health experts are skeptical that it is safe to reopen schools in areas where the virus is spreading widely, or where local officials do not have the means to test and trace people quickly.

Even if children are less likely to get seriously sick, “every child that I know lives in a home with an adult,” said Dr. Harry Heiman, a clinical associate professor of health policy and behavioral sciences at Georgia State University. “The idea that you can safely reopen schools and not in fact worsen spread is not based on science,” he added. “It’s based on wishful thinking.”

In some cases, the virus has arrived in schools even before the students.

In Gwinnett County, Ga., the largest school system in the state, teachers returned to work on Wednesday in preparation for starting classes remotely on Aug. 12. But as of Thursday, about 260 employees had been excluded from work because they tested positive or had potentially been exposed to the virus.

Sloan Roach, a spokeswoman for the school district, said a majority of cases had been attributed to community spread. “We have people who have called in to report who have not been at school or work,” she said, adding that positive cases were to be expected.

Gwinnett County has seen about 4,000 new infections confirmed within the last two weeks.

About 55 miles away, a district in Pickens County, Ga., faced a similar problem after staff members who gathered for training at an elementary school showed coronavirus symptoms. The district, which serves about 4,400 students, delayed the start of school for two weeks so all of that school’s employees could get tested.

“We are just being overcautious,” the superintendent, Rick Townsend, said on Monday, which was supposed to be the first day of school. He said he made the decision to delay classes until Aug. 17 in consultation with local health officials.

At Corinth High School in northern Mississippi, students are filing into classrooms according to seating charts to limit their contacts with others. They eat breakfast and lunch at their desks. English and math classes are taught in big open spaces, like the cafeteria.

Still, at least three students have tested positive for the virus since school started last week, and about 40 are in quarantine.

“I’ve been in the business over 40 years — I have never experienced anything like this,” said Lee Childress, the district’s superintendent. “It’s kind of like drinking out of a fire hose because it’s happening so fast.”

Still, after a summer of preparation, he said he felt comfortable proceeding with the regular start date.

“It doesn’t matter if you open schools in July, August, September or October,” he said. “It’s something that every school is going to have to address.”

Sarah Mervosh is a national reporter based in New York, covering a wide variety of news and feature stories across the country. @smervosh

Shawn Hubler is a California correspondent based in Sacramento. Before joining The Times in 2020 she spent nearly two decades covering the state for The Los Angeles Times as a roving reporter, columnist and magazine writer, and shared three Pulitzer Prizes won by the paper's Metro staff.  @ShawnHubler
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 05, 2020, 12:51:35 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 05, 2020, 10:31:42 AM
https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/#more-26449 (https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/#more-26449)

A key reason for variability in susceptibility to COVID-19 given exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 virus causing is that the immune systems of a substantial proportion (35% to 80%) of unexposed individuals have T-cells, circulating antibodies or other components that are cross-reactive to SARS-CoV-2 and can be expected to provide substantial resistance to it.[6] (https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/#_edn6) [7] (https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/#_edn7) [8] (https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/#_edn8) [9] (https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/#_edn9) Such components likely arise from past exposure to common cold or other coronaviruses, or to influenza.[10] (https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/#_edn10) Not being specific to SARS-CoV-2, and typically not being antibodies, such immune system components are not normally detected in seroprevalence or other tests for immunity to SARS-CoV-2.

I will end with a follow up to my June 28th article (https://www.nicholaslewis.org/the-progress-of-the-covid-19-epidemic-in-sweden-an-analysis/) focusing on Sweden. In it, I concluded that it was likely the HIT had been surpassed in the three largest Swedish regions, and in the country as a whole, by the end of April notwithstanding that COVID-19-specific antibodies had only been detected in 6.3% of the population.[11] (https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/#_edn11)
Good stuff, CD. While I consider her website to be potentially in the area of "biased", I appreciate that she actually cites sources directly, and so I clicked through to sources 6-10 linked.

I'm not an epidemiologist, so some of it was over my head, but it definitely suggests that there is some level of protection for individuals who have T-cells that are cross-reactive to this. Basically that some of the T-cell memory from other coronavirus spike proteins make it more likely that they will recognize the structure of SARS-nCOV-2 and have a better outcome fighting it. 

Highly interesting, and may explain why we have such divergent outcomes even beyond just age/health, including so many asymptomatic carriers. 

I hesitate to agree that this will stop the spread, necessarily, though, as we know asymptomatic spread is still possible, and having these T-cells doesn't mean you're immune from contracting the virus, only that you may have a much higher likelihood of good outcome. So per Badge's conjecture that 40-50% of the country "has had it", I think what this might be showing is that roughly half the country may have a level of immunity that will protect them from the worst outcomes of this thing...

Thanks for posting. Appreciate the evidence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 05, 2020, 12:54:57 PM
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_1766%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Fb3ba58e6-54d9-4cbd-acbe-13ea75058696_883x295.png&t=1596639501&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1c14-bc0001019c00&sig=zsgnssI_gXeScVxzyeeq8w--~D) (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUkmO5CAQfE1xs2W2Mhw4tEaab1gsaQo1Bg_g6ql-fePyqSUEoVwiUhlY3cDn8lJ7rg0dFcoSnGJE0hnPqCOHBRco1GUtAJsOUbVyANoPE4PVLeR0NhDOsUQPZbhzd8IYdQILR4xzWlpG-OycnOmK0Smz6MMFSBZUTvH1JkZRPVrb641-3MjffqxLYz1Mbdp-jjZvPRQ27aG_KzT7OEuWGLbQbuTP2hlb7uDfBeiHz9mdibjsJfsCtYYn9HhtAHvvvcQIP-X4Kdgvc9hP6PkywMSNsYINRms6MDrDIDkWg3aGEgPzLAUbKx31pr9z0l_1mrBzXGt5w_e49WKmRnMB94EzJwdmjRu0NTBgCnrmExd3eV-EoP-J5OOePAqKTGSaxMQxniiTIx6FLey5fuMnbjc2bZ78Wg8qqujkRlOC97UXVGN9zEbHMUE73Vp61Xak0F4LJG0iuMvIdjn_9qW9dlAJvmqE1qBcwe6uwFyQGXVBl_sXSGrLJYXkXai77mb8AP1kwG0)
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2396%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F5bf6f344-5430-4583-b4de-cd33bc2f905f_1198x375.png&t=1596639501&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1c14-bc0001019c00&sig=quSoHch2mz_gg4CaBfkI4Q--~D) (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUsuO4yAQ_Jpws2VeMRx8GK20v2E10CZobPACzmzm6wfHp5EQlPpR1erCQkWf8mvaU6nkKJjn4CbBNB_pSBpyVElFQpmXjLhBWKeaDyT7YdZgoYYUzwYmJdXkMSkNdw1g-DJK0Hc2ctCOgRHDXVorJDllZjhcwGhxSnF9vYnJOj1q3cuNf9zY33asi305TKlgP3ubthYKG3hs74LVPs6SeQ1bqDf2Z2mMNTXw7wL8w6fkzsQ67zn5jKWEJ7Z4qYh7673EmDzl5CnYLnPYT2z53OEgjbFKdAaAd4KP2GlJVQfOcGZwHLUSfeE9bPCdInyVa8LGca3lDd_jljeUZrkvXIhOCj50QireGeGws45zY9miB7nMlGr1n4-y36MnYWIDGwY1SEoHLnRPe2WzeC7f9EnrTQybZ7_2Q_KUIbre5OB9aQXFWL8mA2sfsZ52za1qO2KorxkjmBXd5WS9rH8bU187ThG_yoq1Yr6CzV5FpWIjaYIutT8Qpy3lGKJ3oezQ3PgB45_ABg)



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 05, 2020, 01:05:23 PM
I find Curry's web site interesting.  Controversial perhaps, but it is something obviously being managed by a scientist.  So, I often look at some parts of it that catch my eye.

I tend to think folks rush to claim she is "paid by Exxon" or whatever because they disagree with some of her comments on climate change, which I also find are being overly simplified and taken out of context so as to claim "she's just another denier".

That isn't my read on her position, that she is a "denier", she's not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 05, 2020, 01:10:00 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 05, 2020, 01:05:23 PM
I find Curry's web site interesting.  Controversial perhaps, but it is something obviously being managed by a scientist.  So, I often look at some parts of it that catch my eye.

I tend to think folks rush to claim she is "paid by Exxon" or whatever because they disagree with some of her comments on climate change, which I also find are being overly simplified and taken out of context so as to claim "she's just another denier".

That isn't my read on her position, that she is a "denier", she's not.
My point was more that when everything is politicized, you go to source documents. The various preprint articles she linked point to cross-reactivity between existing T-cells from other infections and SARS-nCOV-2, and while I think there's a lot more to learn, that's *something* beyond "nobody has any protection from this". 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 05, 2020, 03:13:27 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 05, 2020, 09:27:17 AM
If you bash the USA enough times, will you find a better country?

Dead serious. Show me a better one.
Here's the rub - saying the U.S. isn't the best isn't bashing it.  That's how far-out you are on this.  

Maybe it's 2nd or 10th or 35th, I don't know.  There are people who measure those things.  But you're not in any way objective here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 05, 2020, 03:15:33 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on August 05, 2020, 10:44:49 AM
He's clearly never been anywhere else and just talking out of his internet ass.

Again, here, a radicalization of me for merely saying the U.S. isn't the best country.  
You clearly know nothing about me, nor are you objective on the topic.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 05, 2020, 03:16:36 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 05, 2020, 12:03:43 PM
I'm all for anything that helps something.
seems to have helped the spirit of the stock market
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 05, 2020, 03:17:43 PM
Perhaps there is no "best country".  Perhaps there are various countries that are best for different people.

Where I live I think is best for me personally, and the wife.  Probably most of you would not like it here, that doesn't mean it isn't best for me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 05, 2020, 03:18:21 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 05, 2020, 03:13:27 PM
Here's the rub - saying the U.S. isn't the best isn't bashing it.  That's how far-out you are on this. 

Maybe it's 2nd or 10th or 35th, I don't know.  There are people who measure those things.  But you're not in any way objective here.
they are not asking you to produce a list of the top 20 or even the top 5
just provide one example of a country that is better than the US of A
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 05, 2020, 03:19:45 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 05, 2020, 03:17:43 PM
Perhaps there is no "best country".  Perhaps there are various countries that are best for different people.

Where I live I think is best for me personally, and the wife.  Probably most of you would not like it here, that doesn't mean it isn't best for me.

I would probably like it there just fine if I could drive my golf cart directly to the golf course from my residence and the cost of living wasn't out of line
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 05, 2020, 03:25:40 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 05, 2020, 03:19:45 PM
I would probably like it there just fine if I could drive my golf cart directly to the golf course from my residence and the cost of living wasn't out of line
Actually, you could do that, but not legally, I think it would be in part on public streets.  I can easily walk to a nice golf course.

Real estate is on the pricey side for what you get.  A decent 2 bedroom condo is half a mil.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 05, 2020, 03:26:20 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 05, 2020, 03:25:40 PM
Real estate is on the pricey side for what you get.  A decent 2 bedroom condo is half a mil.
deal killer
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 05, 2020, 03:27:21 PM
Yeah, you probably won't find any urban condos cheaper anywhere outside Detroit.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 05, 2020, 03:29:43 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 05, 2020, 03:18:21 PM
they are not asking you to produce a list of the top 20 or even the top 5
just provide one example of a country that is better than the US of A
That's a great plan...so they can dump all over whatever I say.  No thanks.  Their blind subjectivity can go have fun at someone else's expense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 05, 2020, 03:30:30 PM
well, you dumped all over the USA
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 05, 2020, 03:32:21 PM
Right......by saying it's not 1st.  How dare I.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 05, 2020, 03:33:10 PM
so, you do understand

similar to taking a knee during the anthem
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 05, 2020, 04:45:58 PM
I just spoke to me sister in law on the phone

Both she and her husband are positive for antibodies

so they are in pretty good shape
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 05, 2020, 05:01:17 PM
Anyway, we can all have opinions about best this and best that.  Fine with me.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 05, 2020, 07:07:27 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 05, 2020, 05:01:17 PM
Anyway, we can all have opinions about best this and best that.  Fine with me.


I miss 2019 when the argument was about who made the best chicken sandwich.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 05, 2020, 07:46:47 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 05, 2020, 03:33:10 PM
so, you do understand

similar to taking a knee during the anthem
You're a peach.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 05, 2020, 08:33:33 PM
Not that anyone hear needs another downer story or reality check .....

A lady who works for me went totally hysterical today. And for good reason.  Her son, his wife and family apparently caught Covid at a BBQ a few weeks back.  He is in bad shape.  Big dude, bordering on obese.

His lungs are filled with fluid,  but he got up and walked out of the hospital today.  Doctors told him he won’t last 24 hours, but he said I didnt want to die in this hospital.  

The mom has diabetes, so she can’t see him.    Uuugghh.  


This thing sucks.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on August 05, 2020, 09:33:19 PM
Noah's Ark water park in Wisconsin Dells will remain closed for the rest of the season after a positive test in an employee last Friday. Opened June 20, and their last day of operation was July 31.

Looks like a decent proxy for schools in the area. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 05, 2020, 09:51:15 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on August 05, 2020, 09:33:19 PM
Noah's Ark water park in Wisconsin Dells will remain closed for the rest of the season after a positive test in an employee last Friday. Opened June 20, and their last day of operation was July 31.

Looks like a decent proxy for schools in the area.
One employee tests positive and they close it down?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 05, 2020, 10:00:25 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 05, 2020, 07:46:47 PM
You're a peach.
And you the pit
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on August 05, 2020, 10:01:11 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 05, 2020, 09:51:15 PM
One employee tests positive and they close it down?
Actually, per their update from last Saturday, it was two. And once they start working backwards from there on tracing movements and contacts, it's not hard for management to throw the towel. 

https://www.noahsarkwaterpark.com/park-closed

Valley fair didn't open at all this year. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on August 06, 2020, 12:40:52 AM
Quote from: utee94 on August 05, 2020, 10:23:02 AM
I'd go to a tropical island in the Caribbean. 
This may be good. My first preference would be Belize. I would not have to learn a new language and my American dollar has some value. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 06, 2020, 01:39:25 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 05, 2020, 08:33:33 PM
Not that anyone hear needs another downer story or reality check .....

A lady who works for me went totally hysterical today. And for good reason.  Her son, his wife and family apparently caught Covid at a BBQ a few weeks back.  He is in bad shape.  Big dude, bordering on obese.

His lungs are filled with fluid,  but he got up and walked out of the hospital today.  Doctors told him he won’t last 24 hours, but he said I didnt want to die in this hospital. 

The mom has diabetes, so she can’t see him.    Uuugghh. 


This thing sucks.
Yep.  It sucks.
My wife teaches reading at a special needs school.  Aspberger's kids or kids with learning disabilities.  There are maybe 150 students from 1-12 there. They've already lost two parents and a step-parent, and one of the teachers is in the hospital with COVID.
That's before school restarting.
My brother in law in Tucson lost a good friend back in February to a respiratory problem nobody could figure out.  They didn't disinter the body to retroactively check, but the doctors think it was COVID.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 06, 2020, 01:42:59 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 05, 2020, 03:13:27 PM
Here's the rub - saying the U.S. isn't the best isn't bashing it.  That's how far-out you are on this. 

Maybe it's 2nd or 10th or 35th, I don't know.  There are people who measure those things.  But you're not in any way objective here.
I'm not trying to convince you of anything here.
But, logically, if you don't know whether or not it's the 2nd-best, how can be so absolutely positive that it's not the best?
Just trying to figure out how that works.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 06, 2020, 10:07:01 AM
I probably couldn't somehow rank the top ten countries, it's so dependent on variables and opinions and what seems relevant to me, coupled with my ignorance about many of these places.  I might get there and discover the place is really a dump because you can't get an electrician to show up, or it takes months to get a DL, etc.

In France, it takes months, literally, to sell a house, there are so many steps involved.  Our friend had a signed contract on her place in February and still has not closed.  She had a verbal agreement in October.

We would find that sort of thing frustrating.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 06, 2020, 10:15:08 AM
I would think you'd need to live in different countries for a year or so to make a decent somewhat informed opinion
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 06, 2020, 10:19:49 AM
Please take the "Best Country" debate to the 2020 thread, I think it has run its course here.

It started on this thread with OAM lamenting that Americans aren't doing the things he thinks need to be done, to combat the spread of the virus.  And that, specifically, is  a fair topic of discussion for this thread.

The rest of it fits in better on the other thread, where we're already discussing ways we might wish to improve our own country.

Thank You For Your Support

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 06, 2020, 10:22:07 AM
Georgia had a one day spike in reported cases yesterday, so the downtrend (or leveling) is suspended, at least for a day.  I think sometimes the reports come in a day later, an hour after midnight or whatever, so one day doesn't mean anything ...

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 06, 2020, 10:55:25 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 06, 2020, 01:42:59 AM
I'm not trying to convince you of anything here.
But, logically, if you don't know whether or not it's the 2nd-best, how can be so absolutely positive that it's not the best?
Just trying to figure out how that works.
That's why we should expand to 8 teams and auto-bid P5 conference champions.

Objective metrics!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on August 06, 2020, 02:55:49 PM
Well the AIA has announced there will be fall sports in Arizona, Football games will start last week of Sept first week of Oct. 

Good thing, I don't think I could survive a season without officiating football. 

That said, still a long time to get there, I can see them changing their mind, Panic and fear is still in the air. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 06, 2020, 03:20:34 PM

BREAKING: L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti announces he is authorizing the city to shut off water and power to any houses or businesses that are hosting any parties or unauthorized large gatherings. It will begin Friday night, and LAPD will respond, then contact DWP to cut it off


https://twitter.com/BillFOXLA/status/1291166990183407616?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1291166990183407616%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.surlyhorns.com%2Fboard%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FBillFOXLA%2Fstatus%2F1291166990183407616 (https://twitter.com/BillFOXLA/status/1291166990183407616?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1291166990183407616|twgr^&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.surlyhorns.com%2Fboard%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FBillFOXLA%2Fstatus%2F1291166990183407616)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 06, 2020, 03:39:01 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 06, 2020, 10:55:25 AM
That's why we should expand to 8 teams and auto-bid P5 conference champions.

Objective metrics!
Let ELA try it in his simulations
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 06, 2020, 03:40:57 PM
https://twitter.com/BillFOXLA/status/1291168286076526593 (https://twitter.com/BillFOXLA/status/1291168286076526593)

I saw that UTee. Why have massive parties at a time like this?? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 06, 2020, 03:41:58 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 06, 2020, 03:20:34 PM
BREAKING: L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti announces he is authorizing the city to shut off water and power to any houses or businesses that are hosting any parties or unauthorized large gatherings. It will begin Friday night, and LAPD will respond, then contact DWP to cut it off


https://twitter.com/BillFOXLA/status/1291166990183407616?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1291166990183407616%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.surlyhorns.com%2Fboard%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FBillFOXLA%2Fstatus%2F1291166990183407616 (https://twitter.com/BillFOXLA/status/1291166990183407616?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1291166990183407616|twgr^&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.surlyhorns.com%2Fboard%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FBillFOXLA%2Fstatus%2F1291166990183407616)


So they'll still show up and they can't wash their hands.Not sure you could pay someone enough to stand outside a house and try it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 06, 2020, 03:47:32 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 06, 2020, 03:40:57 PM
I saw that UTee. Why have massive parties at a time like this??
Because people are selfish and inconsiderate jackasses. 

Those people exist everywhere, of course, but Los Angeles is kinda their natural habitat.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 06, 2020, 03:47:59 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 06, 2020, 03:40:57 PM
https://twitter.com/BillFOXLA/status/1291168286076526593 (https://twitter.com/BillFOXLA/status/1291168286076526593)

I saw that UTee. Why have massive parties at a time like this??
Well I certainly wouldn't.  And I don't agree with the actions of those that would.

But, wow... shutting off power and water to private residences and businesses seems a bit of an overreach.  And when I say "a bit" I mean "unbelievably massive" overreach.

This is the stuff that gives credence to the fears on the far right.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 06, 2020, 03:54:34 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 06, 2020, 03:47:59 PM
Well I certainly wouldn't.  And I don't agree with the actions of those that would.

But, wow... shutting off power and water to private residences and businesses seems a bit of an overreach.  And when I say "a bit" I mean "unbelievably massive" overreach.

This is the stuff that gives credence to the fears on the far right.
Gives credence to the fears of those of us in the middle too, but that's another thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 06, 2020, 03:56:19 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 06, 2020, 03:47:32 PM
Because people are selfish and inconsiderate jackasses.

Those people exist everywhere, of course, but Los Angeles is kinda their natural habitat.
Don't really hear much about stuff like that in Chicago right now. Maybe it's just not reported, but I doubt that. I know there were a few early on in this thing, and I think the police did a good job of stamping them out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 06, 2020, 04:06:53 PM
I wish they would tell us how many tests were done, but this is alarming anyway.

For the second time in a week, Illinois officials reported a new daily count of coronavirus cases that hovered just under 2,000.

The Illinois Department of Public Health on Thursday reported 1,953 new known cases of COVID-19 in the state over the prior 24 hours, and 21 additional deaths of people with the highly contagious illness. Today’s number is the highest daily count of cases since the end of May (https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-viz-coronavirus-cases-in-illinois-20200304-wz44mgw6wrd5zmzngx4kc3z6a4-htmlstory.html).

Those numbers raise the statewide totals to 188,424 known cases and 7,594 deaths since the pandemic began earlier this year. The seven-day statewide average positivity rate stands at 4%. It was 2.6% a month earlier.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 06, 2020, 04:08:46 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 06, 2020, 04:06:53 PM
I wish they would tell us how many tests were done, but this is alarming anyway.

For the second time in a week, Illinois officials reported a new daily count of coronavirus cases that hovered just under 2,000.

The Illinois Department of Public Health on Thursday reported 1,953 new known cases of COVID-19 in the state over the prior 24 hours, and 21 additional deaths of people with the highly contagious illness. Today’s number is the highest daily count of cases since the end of May (https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-viz-coronavirus-cases-in-illinois-20200304-wz44mgw6wrd5zmzngx4kc3z6a4-htmlstory.html).

Those numbers raise the statewide totals to 188,424 known cases and 7,594 deaths since the pandemic began earlier this year. The seven-day statewide average positivity rate stands at 4%. It was 2.6% a month earlier.

Anything in particular driving it?  Here in Texico, the increases were pretty clearly linked to opening up of risky indoor spaces like bars, combined with a public that began relaxing on distancing and mask-wearing.  Is it similar in Illinois?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 06, 2020, 04:11:54 PM
More than 1 million Wisconsin residents — or roughly one in six — have now been tested for COVID-19, according to the state health department.

Of those, 57,779 have tested positive, including 839 new cases reported Thursday by the Department of Health Services — constituting 4.7% of 18,000 people newly tested.

Thursday marked the second time in a week that positivity was below 5% after not being so low since July 7.

The state's seven-day average of new cases also fell to its lowest level since July 15 (810), even though Thursday's increase would have been a single-day record as recently as July 10.


Eight more people were said to have died fighting the virus, for a total of 978.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 06, 2020, 04:14:09 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 06, 2020, 04:08:46 PM
Anything in particular driving it?  Here in Texico, the increases were pretty clearly linked to opening up of risky indoor spaces like bars, combined with a public that began relaxing on distancing and mask-wearing.  Is it similar in Illinois?
I think it's the bars being open. Mask-wearing is big in Illinois, as it is mandatory.

It is also now mandated in Wisconsin, which I'm fine with. I wish it would have not had to have been mandated, but.. people do silly things and need to be told to do what's right.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 06, 2020, 04:20:09 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 06, 2020, 04:14:09 PM
I think it's the bars being open. Mask-wearing is big in Illinois, as it is mandatory.

It is also now mandated in Wisconsin, which I'm fine with. I wish it would have not had to have been mandated, but.. people do silly things and need to be told to do what's right.

Or face the consequences such as having their electricity and water turned off... right, Fuhrer?

;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 06, 2020, 04:21:42 PM
Full confession: I'm 100 percent German blooded (O+).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 06, 2020, 04:23:31 PM
Heh, I'm O+ as well.  And I'm a Euro-mutt of English, Scottish, Irish, Scots-Irish, and some French way back there.  But no German that I know of.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 06, 2020, 04:24:47 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 13, 2020, 11:12:14 AM
I think the hope is that with an ultra-aggressive response up front, that we'll contain the spread until we get into warmer weather and hopefully this thing naturally tapers off.

I'm surprised though. In my 41 years on the planet, I've never seen anything like this. Which is why (like a lot of people) I have no frame of reference whether this is an underreaction, appropriate response, or an overreaction.
From March, a pretty good take on it I think.

Except the warmer weather hope.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 06, 2020, 04:29:17 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 06, 2020, 04:24:47 PM
From March, a pretty good take on it I think.

Except the warmer weather hope.

It's possible that the warmer weather IS helping... which would be a pretty dire omen indeed, for the Fall and Winter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 06, 2020, 04:30:21 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 06, 2020, 04:08:46 PM
Anything in particular driving it?  Here in Texico, the increases were pretty clearly linked to opening up of risky indoor spaces like bars, combined with a public that began relaxing on distancing and mask-wearing.  Is it similar in Illinois?
another big factor is the Hidalgo County area which is in south Texas near the Mexican boarder

as of yesterday they have taken over 2nd place in deaths edging out Dallas county

not real sure whats driving this except the possibility of it being associated with migrant workers
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 06, 2020, 04:32:26 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 06, 2020, 04:30:21 PM
another big factor is the Hidalgo County area which is in south Texas near the Mexican boarder

as of yesterday they have taken over 2nd place in deaths edging out Dallas county

not real sure whats driving this except the possibility of it being associated with migrant workers

Yes, people are definitely crossing the border into Mexico, and bringing it back.  I know two people of Mexican descent now in Austin, that brought it back with them.  I'm sure it's a lot more common, the closer you get to the border.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on August 06, 2020, 04:32:35 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 06, 2020, 03:47:59 PM
Well I certainly wouldn't.  And I don't agree with the actions of those that would.

But, wow... shutting off power and water to private residences and businesses seems a bit of an overreach.  And when I say "a bit" I mean "unbelievably massive" overreach.

This is the stuff that gives credence to the fears on the far right.
Agree. That is really overstepping bounds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 06, 2020, 04:35:19 PM
I think a more appropriate response would be to station a bunch of overworked ICU nurses outside the house armed with RPGs, turn around, and say "no consequences for your actions..."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 06, 2020, 04:48:46 PM
would you rather the city turn off city utilities to break up a party

OR

send in the SWAT team with clubs, rubber bullets, and smoke bombs, arrest everyone in sight and kneel on their necks while applying handcuffs?

the 2nd option is how they did it a month or so ago
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 06, 2020, 04:51:07 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 06, 2020, 04:29:17 PM
It's possible that the warmer weather IS helping... which would be a pretty dire omen indeed, for the Fall and Winter.

I don't think the warmer weather is helping in hot/humid places like Florida. It's really hard to be outside right now, down there. So, people moved to indoor (AC) spaces, and the spread happened among those who are there year-round. Lots of FL population isn't even around right now (me).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on August 06, 2020, 05:12:35 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 06, 2020, 04:48:46 PM
would you rather the city turn off city utilities to break up a party

OR

send in the SWAT team with clubs, rubber bullets, and smoke bombs, arrest everyone in sight and kneel on their necks while applying handcuffs?

the 2nd option is how they did it a month or so ago
That’s how they handled people having private  house  parties? I didn’t know that. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 06, 2020, 05:31:22 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 06, 2020, 10:55:25 AM
That's why we should expand to 8 teams and auto-bid P5 conference champions.

Objective metrics!
Ah . . . no.
The more that CFB becomes like the NFL, the less I like it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on August 06, 2020, 05:32:35 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 06, 2020, 04:48:46 PM
would you rather the city turn off city utilities to break up a party

OR

send in the SWAT team with clubs, rubber bullets, and smoke bombs, arrest everyone in sight and kneel on their necks while applying handcuffs?

the 2nd option is how they did it a month or so ago
I would rather they just leave people alone period. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 06, 2020, 05:33:27 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on August 06, 2020, 02:55:49 PM
Well the AIA has announced there will be fall sports in Arizona, Football games will start last week of Sept first week of Oct.

Good thing, I don't think I could survive a season without officiating football.

That said, still a long time to get there, I can see them changing their mind, Panic and fear is still in the air.
So's the coronavirus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 06, 2020, 05:59:14 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 06, 2020, 05:31:22 PM
Ah . . . no.
The more that CFB becomes like the NFL, the less I like it.
So we must keep the tradition of bodybag games. Let it be written, let it be done. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 06, 2020, 05:59:21 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on August 06, 2020, 05:32:35 PM
I would rather they just leave people alone period.
Yeah, but you have to understand...

Most of us are trying to be responsible, reduce the spread, in the hopes that if we all band together and do the right thing, maybe we can end this thing sooner rather than later...

...and then you have these jackasses ruining it for everybody (https://snltranscripts.jt.org/93/93druining.phtml).

You can maybe understand why we might not have a lot of sympathy for whatever is done to teach them a lesson...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 06, 2020, 07:56:33 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 06, 2020, 04:48:46 PM
would you rather the city turn off city utilities to break up a party

OR

send in the SWAT team with clubs, rubber bullets, and smoke bombs, arrest everyone in sight and kneel on their necks while applying handcuffs?

the 2nd option is how they did it a month or so ago
I missed that. That’s brutal.
they didn’t even do that to the violent rioters

Hell, the people who have hit law-enforcement with sledgehammers, Molotov cocktails, laser beams in the eye, and IED‘s, how for the most part been allowed to do that and get away with it so you’re right we shouldn’t treat residents that badly if we’re going to let the riders light precinct on fire burn down buildings smashed windows and shoot people who disagree with them , Like what has been happening for 60 days and places like Seattle and Portland.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on August 07, 2020, 12:40:38 AM
I would call some of you drama queens, but I think you are men. Start acting like men, drop the drama, and be reasonable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 07, 2020, 05:04:28 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on August 07, 2020, 12:40:38 AM
I would call some of you drama queens, but I think you are men. Start acting like men, drop the drama, and be reasonable.
You hurt my feelings ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 07, 2020, 08:36:17 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on August 07, 2020, 12:40:38 AM
I would call some of you drama queens, but I think you are men. Start acting like men, drop the drama, and be reasonable.
sorry bout that Hawk but this is an emotional time and calls for emotional people to make emotional statements

if you want non emotion go watch Dragnet 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 07, 2020, 08:47:49 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/TiV5c2i.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 07, 2020, 08:49:33 AM
The coronavirus has killed more than 160,100 people in the U.S. so far, the largest death toll of any country globally, according to Johns Hopkins University. 

“We’re seeing a rollercoaster in the United States,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray in a press release. “It appears that people are wearing masks and socially distancing more frequently as infections increase, then after a while as infections drop, people let their guard down and stop taking these measures to protect themselves and others – which, of course, leads to more infections. And the potentially deadly cycle starts over again.” —Noah Higgins-Dunn

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 07, 2020, 12:30:26 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on August 06, 2020, 05:59:14 PM
So we must keep the tradition of bodybag games. Let it be written, let it be done.
I think you're putting words in my mouth.  Or on my fingers on the keyboard, or something.
As I have discussed several times on this very message board, I don't like the games vs. patsies.  Or pastries.  Or creampuffs.  I wish that the P5 conferences would adopt rules forbidding games with FCS schools and requiring at least one OOC game vs. a P5 program.
But I don't like the playoff.  I thought that the BCS was a slight improvement over what we had before, but I did not want the expansion to four teams and I certainly don't want the inevitable expansion to eight.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 07, 2020, 12:52:56 PM
I just got a call, my test was negative.  I would not like taking it again.  It was hard.

So, tested Wed. morning, results back to me today around noon, pretty good I think.

If I had to be tested to attend a game or concert, I wouldn't go, seriously.  I'm a wuss.  The only think I'm sticking up my nonse is white powder.






jk
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 07, 2020, 01:05:33 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 07, 2020, 12:52:56 PM
I just got a call, my test was negative.  I would not like taking it again.  It was hard.

So, tested Wed. morning, results back to me today around noon, pretty good I think.

If I had to be tested to attend a game or concert, I wouldn't go, seriously.  I'm a wuss.  The only think I'm sticking up my nonse is white powder.






jk
😂😂.   What are you really trying to say-  don’t hold back. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 07, 2020, 01:54:21 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 07, 2020, 12:52:56 PM
I just got a call, my test was negative.  I would not like taking it again.  It was hard.

So, tested Wed. morning, results back to me today around noon, pretty good I think.

If I had to be tested to attend a game or concert, I wouldn't go, seriously.  I'm a wuss.  The only think I'm sticking up my nonse is white powder.






jk
I thought they developed a less invasive test
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 07, 2020, 01:55:50 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 07, 2020, 01:54:21 PM
I thought they developed a less invasive test
I thought that as well.  I presume this one is more reliable, maybe?

Makes me shudder just thinking about it.
I saw another place that had a sign out saying "COVID TEST IN REAR".  I didn't try that one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 07, 2020, 02:36:27 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 07, 2020, 01:55:50 PM
I thought that as well.  I presume this one is more reliable, maybe?

Makes me shudder just thinking about it.
I saw another place that had a sign out saying "COVID TEST IN REAR".  I didn't try that one.
I dont think it means what you think it means LOL
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 07, 2020, 02:40:06 PM
My wife took the test last week and said it wasn't bad.  It definitely wasn't the same version I took back in early June, which was... pretty bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 07, 2020, 02:57:46 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 07, 2020, 02:36:27 PM
I dont think it means what you think it means LOL
maybe not, butt why risk it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 07, 2020, 03:02:03 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 06, 2020, 07:56:33 PM
I missed that. That’s brutal.
they didn’t even do that to the violent rioters

Hell, the people who have hit law-enforcement with sledgehammers, Molotov cocktails, laser beams in the eye, and IED‘s, how for the most part been allowed to do that and get away with it so you’re right we shouldn’t treat residents that badly if we’re going to let the riders light precinct on fire burn down buildings smashed windows and shoot people who disagree with them , Like what has been happening for 60 days and places like Seattle and Portland.
that's why I stated a few months ago, before the protests

when the cop in Minneapolis killed a guy on camera, the force was taken away from the SWAT team.  It was suddenly the wrong thing to do.  

before that awakening, I'm sure cops would shut down a house party pretty quickly with aggressive force if needed.
today using something more passive like turning off the power and water is more acceptable
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 07, 2020, 04:41:32 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 07, 2020, 02:57:46 PM
maybe not, butt why risk it
😂😂😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 07, 2020, 04:54:26 PM
Italians will always find a way to get some vino ;-)

https://www.buzzfeed.com/lyapalater/italy-wine-windows (https://www.buzzfeed.com/lyapalater/italy-wine-windows)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 07, 2020, 04:58:05 PM
This is a surprise

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/07/nyregion/cuomo-schools-reopening.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/07/nyregion/cuomo-schools-reopening.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 07, 2020, 05:00:32 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 07, 2020, 04:54:26 PM
Italians will always find a way to get some vino ;-)

https://www.buzzfeed.com/lyapalater/italy-wine-windows (https://www.buzzfeed.com/lyapalater/italy-wine-windows)
I've actually eaten in some of those places. I just checked the interactive, and yep.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 07, 2020, 05:13:12 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 07, 2020, 12:30:26 PM
I think you're putting words in my mouth.  Or on my fingers on the keyboard, or something.
As I have discussed several times on this very message board, I don't like the games vs. patsies.  Or pastries.  Or creampuffs.  I wish that the P5 conferences would adopt rules forbidding games with FCS schools and requiring at least one OOC game vs. a P5 program.
But I don't like the playoff.  I thought that the BCS was a slight improvement over what we had before, but I did not want the expansion to four teams and I certainly don't want the inevitable expansion to eight.
I am, but I think a world without creampuffs actually moves things more toward an NFL-style of sport. 

Depth and diversity make the sport what it is, and there's value in transferring wins from the second class to the first. Without that, P5 gets closer to .500 overall. A world without patsies mean Jeff Brohm has likely made one bowl and Illinois last year wasn't a story at all. 

Cut into your patsies and records get worse. That's fine and good in a world where we can separate record/schedule in a clear-eyed way, but we can't. All your borderline bowl teams that are fun stories end up just sub-.500 squads. I don't necessarily mind fewer patsies, but they decidedly push us toward a small-tent NFL-style situation and more multi-loss national champs. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on August 07, 2020, 07:05:43 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 07, 2020, 04:54:26 PM
Italians will always find a way to get some vino ;-)

https://www.buzzfeed.com/lyapalater/italy-wine-windows (https://www.buzzfeed.com/lyapalater/italy-wine-windows)
Italians are the best.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 07, 2020, 09:18:58 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on August 07, 2020, 07:05:43 PM
Italians are the best.
That's racist.  :57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 07, 2020, 09:22:53 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 07, 2020, 09:18:58 PM
That's racist.  :57:
Knowing Mdot- he is talking WOMEN.  Lol
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 07, 2020, 11:19:57 PM
I like Italian women
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 07, 2020, 11:21:47 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 07, 2020, 11:19:57 PM
I like Italian women
That is the path I followed.  😊
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on August 08, 2020, 12:22:57 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 07, 2020, 09:22:53 PM
Knowing Mdot- he is talking WOMEN.  Lol
Colombian.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on August 08, 2020, 09:12:23 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 07, 2020, 01:55:50 PM
I thought that as well.  I presume this one is more reliable, maybe?

Makes me shudder just thinking about it.
I saw another place that had a sign out saying "COVID TEST IN REAR".  I didn't try that one.
Yeah, the one I took wasn’t bad at all.  Just swab the inside of your nostrils and you are done.  I thought they had figured out they don’t need to shove a stick halfway to your brain. Idk. Must be a reason some places are still using the more invasive test I guess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 08, 2020, 12:54:17 PM
I like French women, one of them anyway.  She is hobbled with an enormous black sling device on her left arm.

Sage is sleeping now, napping anyway.  My turn is Monday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 08, 2020, 04:08:16 PM
Failure in one chart.

(https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/08/06/multimedia/06-MORNING-REOPENING/06-MORNING-REOPENING-articleLarge.png)

Why did we loosen up when our infection rate was still so high?  Because we didn't want to be pussies and wear masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 08, 2020, 07:33:28 PM
So in my personal life I am learning just how challenging this Covid is for the medical community.

I took my better half back to the emergency room today because her diagnosis of pneumonia is not improving. Two consecutive weeks of fever.

They kept her there because they were very concerned about that and her oxygen levels being so low.

They gave her her fifth Covid test and again it was negative. However they shipped her over to the other hospital in town which is for Covid patients because they are saying all of her symptoms and enzymes and other chemical levels are presenting themselves as Covid.  

I am inclined to think they know what they are doing because this is part of the Cleveland clinic Hospital network
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 08, 2020, 07:34:25 PM
It is a little unnerving when you have pneumonia and then get sent to a Covid unit. But they are absolutely determined to do the right thing for her so I guess I will trust them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 08, 2020, 07:52:36 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 08, 2020, 07:34:25 PM
It is a little unnerving when you have pneumonia and then get sent to a Covid unit. But they are absolutely determined to do the right thing for her so I guess I will trust them
Hang in there

if it is COVID she should be on the down side of it and hopefully will recover soon

Hope for the best

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 08, 2020, 09:38:15 PM
Some of you obviously don't get it.

WE DON'T GIVE A SHIT ABOUT YOUR SUPER HOT TAKES ON THE POLITICS DRIVING VARIOUS POLITICAL DECISIONS DURING THIS PANDEMIC.

Was that clear enough?

I can assure you, you're neither "enlightening" us, nor driving us to agree with your cause.

Some of you seem to believe you're just way way smarter than the rest of us.

I can assure you-- and please believe me when I assert this-- YOU ARE NOT.

Take your dumbass political hot takes to another thread.  They don't belong here.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 08, 2020, 10:12:47 PM
I hope they get it figured out and she's okay.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on August 08, 2020, 11:07:27 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 08, 2020, 07:34:25 PM
It is a little unnerving when you have pneumonia and then get sent to a Covid unit. But they are absolutely determined to do the right thing for her so I guess I will trust them
Does she have a private room in the COVID unit?
It is unnerving. And, are you able to visit? If so, with what protective gear?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 08, 2020, 11:08:41 PM
Quote from: Hawkinole on August 08, 2020, 11:07:27 PM
Does she have a private room in the COVID unit?
It is unnerving. And, are you able to visit? If so, with what protective gear?

Yes she has a private room and they have her in the “suspected of Covid“ unit.  Meaning although she keeps testing negative they actually don’t believe it because of how she presents clinically. No I am not allowed to visit her
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 09, 2020, 12:26:41 AM
I hope she gets well soon, HB.  And they figure out what's wrong with her.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 09, 2020, 08:40:12 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 08, 2020, 07:34:25 PM
It is a little unnerving when you have pneumonia and then get sent to a Covid unit. But they are absolutely determined to do the right thing for her so I guess I will trust them
Good Luck HB,wishing her well
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 09, 2020, 08:44:17 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 07, 2020, 11:19:57 PM
I like Italian women
Willing always worked for me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 09, 2020, 09:42:09 AM
All the best, HB. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 09, 2020, 11:41:05 AM
So, this thing ripped through NYC, Chicago, LA, etc., and then it unleashed on Florida, Texas, Arizona, etc. Those latter places are getting more under control, while cases in the former are kinda level, with some exceptions.

I wonder if this thing truly can run its course?? Man, I really hope so.

This is not based on anything other than hope, because I guess we still don't know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 09, 2020, 12:06:19 PM
Well, "run its course" can have different meanings I suppose.

I believe it'll run its course, and it will climb and then decline based largely on how many interior public spaces are allowed to open.  Eventually, NY will have to open its restaurants and bars to indoor dining/drinking.  They can't stay closed forever.  And then, I'd expect their number to climb once again, as we've seen in the Southern states, as we've seen in Spain, and elsewhere.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on August 09, 2020, 01:10:24 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 09, 2020, 11:41:05 AM
So, this thing ripped through NYC, Chicago, LA, etc., and then it unleashed on Florida, Texas, Arizona, etc. Those latter places are getting more under control, while cases in the former are kinda level, with some exceptions.

I wonder if this thing truly can run its course?? Man, I really hope so.

This is not based on anything other than hope, because I guess we still don't know.
All I know is this thing sucks. And it’s cost everyone a lot of money. It really hurt everyone I know who runs a business. Badly. 

Can’t blame Republicans, can’t blame Democrats for it, can only blame China. 

I’ll vote for whoever decides to stop being pussy and actually get tough on China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 09, 2020, 03:45:03 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 08, 2020, 11:08:41 PM
Yes she has a private room and they have her in the “suspected of Covid“ unit.  Meaning although she keeps testing negative they actually don’t believe it because of how she presents clinically. No I am not allowed to visit her
That’s awful. Thoughts are with you guys, 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 09, 2020, 05:39:53 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on August 09, 2020, 01:10:24 PM
All I know is this thing sucks. And it’s cost everyone a lot of money. It really hurt everyone I know who runs a business. Badly.
This is part of what bothers me about our country.  We measure EVERYTHING in dollars.

Pandemic?  How much is it hurting the economy?  
Hurricane?  How much did it hurt the economy?
War?  How much is it costing?

Hell, watch - a freakin' asteroid is going to crash into Dallas/Ft. Worth and guess what the story will be:  the damage to the local economy.

It's pretty revealing.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 09, 2020, 05:47:13 PM
We "broke containment" last night to cook a fancy dinner for my wife's friend who just finished chemo for breast cancer. It was 6 people (three households).


Grilled some filets, had some comfort food sides, set a fancy table, and generally tried to make it especially nice for her.

F'ing nightmare. We were comfined to the kitchen because one of the couples has a 3-year-old and we had to confine the 80-lb puppy to his "jail" in the kitchen, and of course cook. Instead of people actually being *NORMAL* and hanging out in the kitchen, they all just sat around in the living room while we worked our asses off cooking. Everyone was annoying during dinner, and then of course when my wife and I were trying to clean up, nobody offered to help. 

But worst was that as we were going through dinner. We got to hear the stories about all the social interactions they've had, including an event the previous night. All the time while we were paranoid that we might give the recovering chemo patient COVID, so we have tried to be extra-careful for the last week. Great to hear that she was out and about the night before. 

By the end of the night my wife was like "when can we move to Austin?"...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 09, 2020, 06:32:21 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 09, 2020, 05:39:53 PM
This is part of what bothers me about our country.  We measure EVERYTHING in dollars.
In my experience in other countries, this is rather common everywhere.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on August 09, 2020, 06:47:57 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 09, 2020, 05:47:13 PM
We "broke containment" last night to cook a fancy dinner for my wife's friend who just finished chemo for breast cancer. It was 6 people (three households).


Grilled some filets, had some comfort food sides, set a fancy table, and generally tried to make it especially nice for her.

F'ing nightmare. We were comfined to the kitchen because one of the couples has a 3-year-old and we had to confine the 80-lb puppy to his "jail" in the kitchen, and of course cook. Instead of people actually being *NORMAL* and hanging out in the kitchen, they all just sat around in the living room while we worked our asses off cooking. Everyone was annoying during dinner, and then of course when my wife and I were trying to clean up, nobody offered to help.

But worst was that as we were going through dinner. We got to hear the stories about all the social interactions they've had, including an event the previous night. All the time while we were paranoid that we might give the recovering chemo patient COVID, so we have tried to be extra-careful for the last week. Great to hear that she was out and about the night before.

By the end of the night my wife was like "when can we move to Austin?"...

Ugh. Put me on Team No Social Interaction
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 09, 2020, 06:54:59 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 09, 2020, 06:32:21 PM
In my experience in other countries, this is rather common everywhere.
money makes the world go round

especially in very poor countries - not the USA
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 09, 2020, 06:56:24 PM
Arizona is way down over the last month from where they were.

Impressive, they did close gyms and bars and larger gatherings.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 09, 2020, 07:15:50 PM
Anyone want to predict what'll happen when bars open back up (and schools go in-person)?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 09, 2020, 07:21:34 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 09, 2020, 07:15:50 PM
Anyone want to predict what'll happen when bars open back up (and schools go in-person)?


We don't really know about schools, but when bars reopen, same thing that's happened everywhere else in the world that has done that.  The numbers go up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 09, 2020, 07:22:51 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 09, 2020, 05:47:13 PM


By the end of the night my wife was like "when can we move to Austin?"...


You know, I always thought I liked you, but sometimes you're just really cruel.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 09, 2020, 09:02:36 PM
Arizona didn't roll back all that much, bars and gyms and groups over 50, or somesuch.  They didn't lock down.

Georgia appears to have topped out and nothing has changed here at all, legally.

Florida is down as well, not new mandates or limitations.

And then there is Sweden ....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on August 09, 2020, 09:32:42 PM
My own personal ignorant theory is that the lockdowns and other steps helped other areas avoid being New York et al as the virus spread through the country, so other regions got hit in a relatively minor way in the first wave. But I'm very concerned a second wave could hit, and be more uniform across the country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on August 09, 2020, 09:57:56 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 09, 2020, 05:39:53 PM
This is part of what bothers me about our country.  We measure EVERYTHING in dollars.

Pandemic?  How much is it hurting the economy? 
Hurricane?  How much did it hurt the economy?
War?  How much is it costing?

Hell, watch - a freakin' asteroid is going to crash into Dallas/Ft. Worth and guess what the story will be:  the damage to the local economy.

It's pretty revealing. 
First of all, I don’t really think that is true. The human side  of tragedies is always covered and it certainly has with this pandemic.  There has been intense focus on slowing the spread and the lives lost by this.

Secondly, to ignore the financial suffering people have incurred would be naive.  It’s real and it deserves to be talked about and taken into consideration.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 09, 2020, 11:21:57 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 09, 2020, 05:39:53 PM
This is part of what bothers me about our country.  We measure EVERYTHING in dollars.

Pandemic?  How much is it hurting the economy? 
Hurricane?  How much did it hurt the economy?
War?  How much is it costing?

Hell, watch - a freakin' asteroid is going to crash into Dallas/Ft. Worth and guess what the story will be:  the damage to the local economy.

It's pretty revealing.
No we don't.  That's just another one of your gross generalizations to fit your "I always see the worst in my country" mentality.
If we did measure EVERYTHING in dollars, everything would be wide open and we'd have 400,000 dead instead of 160,000.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 09, 2020, 11:25:53 PM
Yeah, I don't hate my country.  I love that when someone isn't extreme enough for you, you put words in their mouth to be that extreme.  Fun.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 09, 2020, 11:52:27 PM
You know, I'll go back and change that.  I don't know whether you hate your country or not.

I'll make it "always see the worst in my country."  Is that better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on August 10, 2020, 12:25:02 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 09, 2020, 05:47:13 PM
We "broke containment" last night to cook a fancy dinner for my wife's friend who just finished chemo for breast cancer. It was 6 people (three households).


Grilled some filets, had some comfort food sides, set a fancy table, and generally tried to make it especially nice for her.

F'ing nightmare. We were comfined to the kitchen because one of the couples has a 3-year-old and we had to confine the 80-lb puppy to his "jail" in the kitchen, and of course cook. Instead of people actually being *NORMAL* and hanging out in the kitchen, they all just sat around in the living room while we worked our asses off cooking. Everyone was annoying during dinner, and then of course when my wife and I were trying to clean up, nobody offered to help.

But worst was that as we were going through dinner. We got to hear the stories about all the social interactions they've had, including an event the previous night. All the time while we were paranoid that we might give the recovering chemo patient COVID, so we have tried to be extra-careful for the last week. Great to hear that she was out and about the night before.

By the end of the night my wife was like "when can we move to Austin?"...

Sounds like a legitimate reason to celebrate. I attended one of these types of celebrations in June. Different reason for the celebration. The folks at the get-together were all from rural Iowa counties where there were very few cases, except for one attendee, but I think she had been socially isolating. Nevertheless, I actively attempt to avoid gatherings, and this was the only one I have attended since February.
Austin is home to the Spam Museum, which I am told by someone who toured it is more interesting than most folks may realize. I have not been there myself. https://www.spam.com/museum (https://www.spam.com/museum)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on August 10, 2020, 11:35:03 AM
The SPAM Museum in Austin is real and spectacular. And arguably, it's not even the most noteworthy export from the town. John Madden (yes, that one) was born there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on August 10, 2020, 12:03:05 PM
https://www.vox.com/2020/8/8/21357625/covid-19-iowa-lakes-okoboji-kim-reynolds-masks?fbclid=IwAR3N44JxlHKXiZPX7Z6kHab3XvkcFNAtXP7NHG-7Y79uj19Wu3GvJ5P69Ug (https://www.vox.com/2020/8/8/21357625/covid-19-iowa-lakes-okoboji-kim-reynolds-masks?fbclid=IwAR3N44JxlHKXiZPX7Z6kHab3XvkcFNAtXP7NHG-7Y79uj19Wu3GvJ5P69Ug)

A thorough and disappointing read about how Lake Okobiji and environs turned into a COVID hotspot. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 10, 2020, 01:17:17 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 09, 2020, 11:52:27 PM
You know, I'll go back and change that.  I don't know whether you hate your country or not.

I'll make it "always see the worst in my country."  Is that better.
You must be bored or something.
I've said mainly 2 things about the U.S. lately:
a - that it's not the best country in the world (gasp)
b - that we're so privileged that we care about how much disasters cost (good lord!)

And you make the leaps you make about it.  Fun.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on August 10, 2020, 02:08:58 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 10, 2020, 01:17:17 PM
You must be bored or something.
I've said mainly 2 things about the U.S. lately:
a - that it's not the best country in the world (gasp)
b - that we're so privileged that we care about how much disasters cost (good lord!)

And you make the leaps you make about it.  Fun.
I find it strange that you feel confident enough to say the US is definitely not the best (whatever best means) country on earth but when pressed to name the country that is refuse to do so. 

Secondly, disasters have an economic impact worth discussing.  Discussing it doesn’t mean it’s the all anyone cares about or takes precedent over the human toll. It is also not unique to the United States to discuss the economic impact when something bad happens.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 10, 2020, 04:28:57 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on August 10, 2020, 02:08:58 PM
I find it strange that you feel confident enough to say the US is definitely not the best (whatever best means) country on earth but when pressed to name the country that is refuse to do so. 

Secondly, disasters have an economic impact worth discussing.  Discussing it doesn’t mean it’s the all anyone cares about or takes precedent over the human toll. It is also not unique to the United States to discuss the economic impact when something bad happens.
And furthermore he is ignoring the damage that the economic impact it’s having on humans as far as unemployment depression addictions abuse and suicide
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 10, 2020, 05:05:34 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on August 10, 2020, 02:08:58 PM
I find it strange that you feel confident enough to say the US is definitely not the best (whatever best means) country on earth but when pressed to name the country that is refuse to do so. 

Secondly, disasters have an economic impact worth discussing.  Discussing it doesn’t mean it’s the all anyone cares about or takes precedent over the human toll. It is also not unique to the United States to discuss the economic impact when something bad happens.
Well as it's an opinion thing, listing countries better than the U.S. would be an opinion of one.  It certainly is an odd claim, and I'm not entirely sure what it means to be the best country, yet we have tens of millions of people who insist it's the case.  Sure, they lack much evidence, but that doesn't seem to limit their vigor.  

Their claim is that the U.S. is the best country and I'm simply unconvinced of that.  Judging by the group who are most ardent about it, I deem it highly unlikely that it is #1.  

I guess my claim is that by the most statistical measures of quality of life and happiness, the U.S. does not average out at the top of the rankings.  That's all.  I could probably get along pretty well in any number of 100 countries that have flushing toilets and non-oppressive regimes.  I probably don't care about many of the things that probably are strengths in measuring the quality of the U.S.  I probably take for granted many strengths of the U.S. and would miss them if they were gone.  

But I also know that academia isn't mistrusted in many other countries.  I know there are countries who are progressing socially, without the nationalist overcorrection we're seeing here.  There are many building up and improving - ours has been on top for at least 80 years and possibly 140 and are showing the signs that it's difficult to be so great for so long.

And I'm possibly wrong.  Duh.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 10, 2020, 07:19:43 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 10, 2020, 01:17:17 PM
You must be bored or something.
I've said mainly 2 things about the U.S. lately:
a - that it's not the best country in the world (gasp)
b - that we're so privileged that we care about how much disasters cost (good lord!)

And you make the leaps you make about it.  Fun.
There you go with your motte-and-bailey defense again.

You did NOT say "that we're so privileged that we care about how much disasters cost."

You said that EVERYTHING in our country was about money.

If you're going to make statements like that, you need to be prepared to defend them or to admit that you were wrong.

But you try to have it both ways.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 10, 2020, 07:54:22 PM
Some improvement here. But deaths are on the rise.

(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2912%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F7071b20d-e088-48bb-a543-6e6f4583eec5_1600x526.png&t=1597103352&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1c95-720063013e00&sig=qrzTYcJKwaqAFktjsG8lsw--~D) (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUkmO5CAQfE1xs8ViDD740BppvmGxpClUGDyAu6f69Y3tU0sIQrlEpDIwqoJL-T3vqVR0FMiLt_NAJyaIQA1ZIrlEvixrBtiUD3PNB6D90MEbVX2KZwPlnEzoOVtmRttaJmEFnaRmK2N4AIM540QoiU6ZRR3WQzQwpxjeFzEK87PWvTzYx4P-bcfY2JdDl6rMqzdpayG_KQftXaGa51myBL_5-qB_1sZYUwP_bsA-XEr2TIRlz8llKMV_QouXCrC33luM8lOOn4Lt0od5QcvnDjDX2sih00qxbmACuokT2SmrGdUgxCSHvrBebeo7RfVV7gkbx72WC17jlgsKLIim2DZiKbtBat0pPrBuhHEduGQAhi9kxPg_p2O_R4f8TDHFWBJMCBOY96T_5CaxbxNeCR4D3hz9tR-U56yi7XX2zpVWULRxIWkV-gj1tGtpVdsRfX0vEJUOYG8n6239ZUx97zBH-CoBaoV8B5u9ktFRSNQEbWp_IM5bytFHZ33ZVXPjBzdzv8M)
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2912%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F631331a1-d9d5-4eb1-bfd3-36722914da6c_1600x503.png&t=1597103352&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1c95-720063013e00&sig=d15Eb2J6TmQGG5_zeVFc5A--~D) (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUkmO5CAQfE1xs8Xq5eBDa6T5hpVA2oUKgwdw91S_vrF9aglBKJeIVAYGCq4xvac95kKOjGl2dpJ8FD3rSUWWDWogLs9LQtzA-amkA8l-aO8MFBfD2cCVYiN5TgsoVKhHSYFrDlIvVi0LNf0iBylAk1NmhsM6DAanGPz7IiZ-epay54f4ePC_9Rgb2nzoXMC8WhO3GnIbrFjfBYt5niWzd5srD_5nqYwlVvDvBuJjjdGeCT_vKa4Jc3afWOO5IO619xbj6pRTp2C99GFeWPOpQaq0NoNsNIBopOixGRUbGrBacI19Pw6yzaKFDb5jgK98T1g57rVc8Bo3X7ATTAgGrLGjVY1EzZq6GNGIrud8ZNJCZ2bWUfpfUdHuYSVu4pRTOjDKmOipaln7qUwU38a_Ij4k3Vb-az8kTQmCbXVy65prQdZm9VGDbwOW0665Vm1HcOU9YwDt0d5Oltv6y5jy3nEK-JU9loLpDlZ7B8G7fiBV0Mb6B8K0xRRcWK3LO1Q3fgCDGsDr)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 10, 2020, 09:31:03 PM
From Jonathan V. Last at The Bulwark.

1. Models
On Friday we talked about (https://thebulwark.com/newsletter-issue/identity-politics-conservatism/) how the much-maligned COVID models have actually been pretty helpful in understanding the spread and death toll from the coronavirus.

Mark Panaggio, a big-brain math guy who works with data for a living, wrote in to put some meat on that bone.

Panaggio pulled the predictions (https://markpanaggio.wixsite.com/home/post/are-the-models-actually-wrong) for the big-12 COVID models and ran them against observed results to see how well they did.

He shared some charts from his observations and is generously letting me use them here. So let's take a look.

(https://i.imgur.com/ATwr301.png)

Okay. So here's what we're looking at. On the x-axis we have the models and the y-axis we have the average percentage errors in their predictions for new deaths. The different color bars show you how well the predictions were four weeks out, three weeks out, two weeks out, and one week out.

What should immediately jump out at you is that 9 of the 12 models had error rates that were really low: mostly < 20 percent. Two of the models—from Johns Hopkins and Columbia—were not nearly as good. The University of Arizona was somewhere in the middle.

Panaggio helpfully put the data in a chart, too, in case you see numbers better that way:

(https://i.imgur.com/lOvgEMk.png)


The error rate for some of these models—the IHME, Los Alamos, UMass, U Texas, and Younyang Gu—are mostly in the low teens, which is wildly impressive.

The Ensemble model is like the RealClear Politics polling average: It's the average of a whole bunch of models. And the Ensemble error rates were quite low, too.

So if you were just looking at that, you would have had a very clear picture of how the pandemic would progress.

I don't mean to keep beating up on Richard Epstein, but he's been unrepentantly stupid on this, so I will:

This idiot predicted (https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/the-contrarian-coronavirus-theory-that-informed-the-trump-administration?utm_source=The+Bulwark+Newsletter&utm_campaign=47e52a13a1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_08_06_05_53&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f4bd64ac2e-47e52a13a1-60539233) that total U.S. deaths would be between 500 and 5,000. Which means that his error rate (so far) is between 3,200 percent and 32,000 percent.

There's one other aspect of the models that's worth looking at, which is the success of their confidence intervals. Models give a spread of predicted outcomes. This is called a confidence interval. In general, this spread is constructed by the model believing that 95 percent of the time, the actual result will fall within this range.

How did the models do with their confidence intervals?

(https://i.imgur.com/xK9zvzz.png)

Even in the midst of a pandemic with no modern precedent, five of them were bang-on almost 100 percent of the time. (UMass, take a bow.)

Now, the confidence interval tells you something different than the straight prediction. What it's telling you is how confident the model is in itself. The UMass and Los Alamos models were giving themselves wider intervals than, say, U Texas and IHME, which tells you that even though their predictions were almost equivalent in terms of accuracy, the IHME and U Texas models were more aggressive in their certainty.

But again: Look at the Ensemble. If you had been looking at the averages of the various models and taking into account their confidence intervals, you would have had an almost perfect sense of what the next four weeks were going to look like at any point during the pandemic.

Keep all of this in mind the next time someone tries to tell you, "No one could have known" or "The models were all junk" or "Why should we listen to the supposed experts when they couldn't even get their models right."

None of those things are true. This isn't magic. The people who were paying attention to the data had a clear sense of what was happening on the ground.

It was the people paying attention to Twitter or Conservatism Inc. or the president of the United States who had no idea what was coming.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 10, 2020, 09:42:51 PM
CW your post is not showing any graphs or charts so it is meaningless
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 10, 2020, 11:24:26 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 10, 2020, 09:42:51 PM
CW your post is not showing any graphs or charts so it is meaningless
320:

I tried posting it about 5 different times, and the charts never showed up for me once I saved the post.  But I thought maybe the problem was on my end.  I'll try again.  Maybe I can insert them into an existing post.

They show up for me now.  Can you see them?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 11, 2020, 12:45:51 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 10, 2020, 11:24:26 PM
320:

I tried posting it about 5 different times, and the charts never showed up for me once I saved the post.  But I thought maybe the problem was on my end.  I'll try again.  Maybe I can insert them into an existing post.

They show up for me now.  Can you see them?
yes everything shows up
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 11, 2020, 01:24:25 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 10, 2020, 07:19:43 PM
There you go with your motte-and-bailey defense again.

You did NOT say "that we're so privileged that we care about how much disasters cost."

You said that EVERYTHING in our country was about money.

If you're going to make statements like that, you need to be prepared to defend them or to admit that you were wrong.

But you try to have it both ways.
Well I say something that I think will be understood, but then it's horribly misconstrued.  It's my fault, I need to keep my audience in mind when posting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 11, 2020, 01:27:27 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 11, 2020, 12:45:51 AM
yes everything shows up
Let me guess - they're still meaningless because nerd brain math stuff can't be trusted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 11, 2020, 09:38:45 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 11, 2020, 01:27:27 AM
Let me guess - they're still meaningless because nerd brain math stuff can't be trusted.
why are you taking a shot

theres no need

thats why folks dont like you Orange
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 11, 2020, 09:44:39 AM
I guess we'll let the Ruskies do their own type of phase 3 and then maybe try it if it looks good

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-11/russia-approves-first-coronavirus-vaccine-vladimir-putin-says/12547608 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-11/russia-approves-first-coronavirus-vaccine-vladimir-putin-says/12547608)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 11, 2020, 10:05:47 AM

FroMan,

Understands economics, especially with the poor and impoverished.

What he doesn't want to admit, is that the pandemic is causing many more folks to become poor and impoverished and the ones that were, are becoming poorer.

this cannot be good for those people that were struggling to get by in the first place with a minimum wage job that was NOT a living wage, are now out of a job completely.  And others that had a job that paid a living wage or now working for minimum wage.

yes, rich folks are feeling the pain of the economic downturn, but it's hurting the poor much more.  Possibly to the point of death.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 11, 2020, 11:06:09 AM
i am way ahead financially this year ... crazy stuff.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 11, 2020, 11:17:47 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 11, 2020, 10:05:47 AM
FroMan,

Understands economics, especially with the poor and impoverished.

What he doesn't want to admit, is that the pandemic is causing many more folks to become poor and impoverished and the ones that were, are becoming poorer.

this cannot be good for those people that were struggling to get by in the first place with a minimum wage job that was NOT a living wage, are now out of a job completely.  And others that had a job that paid a living wage or now working for minimum wage.

yes, rich folks are feeling the pain of the economic downturn, but it's hurting the poor much more.  Possibly to the point of death.
And what the other side fails to admit is that this economic pain isn't *only* the fault of government-mandated lockdowns. A lot of it is people avoiding travel, avoiding events, avoiding "going out" and contributing to the economy VOLUNTARILY.

If Purdue came to me and said "Brad, we need people in the seats in our stadium so it looks full for TV. We're going to offer you and wife $1000 each and outfit you fully in Boiler gear to root for the team, as long as you'll come to fill Ross-Ade", I'd say hell no. We're not even talking the idea of buying season tickets. I wouldn't go if you paid me right now.

So yeah, this pandemic is an economic shit sandwich. But it would be even without gov't enforced lockdowns, because once people saw the case and death rates skyrocket they'd stay home on their own.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 11, 2020, 11:44:41 AM
Ed Zachery

we can blame the Pres or the government for our troubles, but that's bullshat

similar to blaming the Pres or the government for COVID deaths
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 11, 2020, 05:35:25 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 11, 2020, 11:06:09 AM
i am way ahead financially this year ... crazy stuff.
We need to talk - aren't you recovering or sum such
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 11, 2020, 06:32:30 PM
I'd rather be poor than dead.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 11, 2020, 06:34:44 PM
what if being poor was the cause of death?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on August 11, 2020, 06:55:59 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 11, 2020, 11:17:47 AM
And what the other side fails to admit is that this economic pain isn't *only* the fault of government-mandated lockdowns. A lot of it is people avoiding travel, avoiding events, avoiding "going out" and contributing to the economy VOLUNTARILY.

If Purdue came to me and said "Brad, we need people in the seats in our stadium so it looks full for TV. We're going to offer you and wife $1000 each and outfit you fully in Boiler gear to root for the team, as long as you'll come to fill Ross-Ade", I'd say hell no. We're not even talking the idea of buying season tickets. I wouldn't go if you paid me right now.

So yeah, this pandemic is an economic shit sandwich. But it would be even without gov't enforced lockdowns, because once people saw the case and death rates skyrocket they'd stay home on their own.
This is where I disagree I think without the fear generated by the government and the media people would have treated this like any other epidemic and life would have gone on
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 11, 2020, 07:00:55 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on August 11, 2020, 06:55:59 PM
This is where I disagree I think without the fear generated by the government and the media people would have treated this like any other epidemic and life would have gone on
so you would have done nothing?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on August 11, 2020, 07:17:46 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 11, 2020, 07:00:55 PM
so you would have done nothing?
I would havr done what we have always done with outbreaks  Shut down school business etc where there are hotspots
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 11, 2020, 10:23:00 PM
in some bicep pain,  not sleeping.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 11, 2020, 11:13:04 PM
meds aren't working well?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 12, 2020, 02:08:08 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 11, 2020, 06:34:44 PM
what if being poor was the cause of death?
It often is, and was before the pandemic.  But no one cared, then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 12, 2020, 08:08:05 AM
No one?

Pretty broad brush you got there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 12, 2020, 08:37:24 AM
Just noticing 847?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 12, 2020, 09:39:01 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 12, 2020, 02:08:08 AM
It often is, and was before the pandemic.  But no one cared, then.
you're more aware of this than most, but you seem to care more about deaths caused by COVID than poverty

enjoying the rich man being hurt by an economic crisis isn't worth the pain and death it causes for the poor, in my opinion
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 12, 2020, 10:07:11 AM
probably BS............

(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/s640x640/117318402_3077396949025802_7907183839837249348_n.jpg?_nc_cat=100&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=kExr4QMUlXYAX8-8EQs&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&_nc_tp=7&oh=e363764a23cd0c3d6a2b54da065a4aef&oe=5F591CB9)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 12, 2020, 11:43:11 AM
I don't know why it's not being used. It's been around for years and years and was deemed safe by the FDA for all that time. Now all of sudden it's dangerous. Whatever. So is aspirin. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 12, 2020, 11:57:04 AM
so is whatever pain meds that aren't working for Cincy
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 12, 2020, 01:10:31 PM
Ok, they show the UK, Sweden, France, US, and Ireland.

Large countries with higher deaths/million than Ireland are:  Belgium, Peru, Spain, Italy, Chile, Brazil, Mexico, Panama, Netherlands.

Why were they excluded from the graph? What are their policies regarding use/non-use/limited-use of HCQ?

Unless someone explains why they were excluded from the graph... It looks like cherry-picking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on August 12, 2020, 01:14:38 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 12, 2020, 11:43:11 AM
I don't know why it's not being used. It's been around for years and years and was deemed safe by the FDA for all that time. Now all of sudden it's dangerous. Whatever. So is aspirin.
Clinical trials haven't shown it to be effective
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 12, 2020, 01:18:13 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 12, 2020, 01:10:31 PM
Ok, they show the UK, Sweden, France, US, and Ireland.

Large countries with higher deaths/million than Ireland are:  Belgium, Peru, Spain, Italy, Chile, Brazil, Mexico, Panama, Netherlands.

Why were they excluded from the graph? What are their policies regarding use/non-use/limited-use of HCQ?

Unless someone explains why they were excluded from the graph... It looks like cherry-picking.
graphs are just pretty statistics

usually no explanation of how the stats were gathered

lies. damned lies, & statistics
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 12, 2020, 01:18:47 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on August 12, 2020, 01:14:38 PM
Clinical trials haven't shown it to be effective
I guess that depends on who you ask. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on August 12, 2020, 01:23:22 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 12, 2020, 01:18:47 PM
I guess that depends on who you ask.
I suppose but the people conducting the clinical trials would be the best source. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 12, 2020, 01:24:47 PM
Other countries, and several doctors in THIS country, are having success with it. My doctor has used it. None of his patients are dead.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 12, 2020, 01:29:49 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on August 12, 2020, 01:23:22 PM
I suppose but the people conducting the clinical trials would be the best source.
This drug has no profit in it so the folks conducting the clinical trials may be tempted to go with a drug that has the ability to general huge profits

I have no proof of this 

its only my observation
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 12, 2020, 01:35:10 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 12, 2020, 01:18:13 PM
graphs are just pretty statistics

usually no explanation of how the stats were gathered

lies. damned lies, & statistics
Honestly I am not disputing their stats. Looks pretty legit.

But if I wanted to deceive someone into thinking there was a big conspiracy against HCQ, I'd cherry-pick a bunch of countries with high death rates that limit HCQ, omitting other countries with high death rates that don't limit HCQ. I'd then cherry-pick a bunch of countries with low death rates that use HCQ. 

Unless I understand why those 9 high-death countries were left off the graph and the 5 others were put on the graph, I consider it completely useless information.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 12, 2020, 01:38:24 PM
that's the problem with stats, they may be accurate as hell

just not showing fully what is going on, purposefully misleading

completely useless or worse

usually compiled by "experts"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 12, 2020, 01:41:29 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 12, 2020, 01:24:47 PM
Other countries, and several doctors in THIS country, are having success with it. My doctor has used it. None of his patients are dead.
apparently the USA is a country that "limits" use

what the hell is that supposed to mean? 

there are countries than "ban" this drug??  because it's so deadly???

WTH?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 12, 2020, 01:42:21 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on August 12, 2020, 01:23:22 PM
I suppose but the people conducting the clinical trials would be the best source.
exactly, but them you have to determine their agenda
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 12, 2020, 02:02:32 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on August 12, 2020, 01:23:22 PM
I suppose but the people conducting the clinical trials would be the best source.
Depends if they're research scientists or Big Pharma - the latter will bend those numbers to fit the narrative
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 12, 2020, 02:26:47 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 12, 2020, 11:43:11 AM
I don't know why it's not being used. It's been around for years and years and was deemed safe by the FDA for all that time. Now all of sudden it's dangerous. Whatever. So is aspirin.
It's assume it's risk/reward. 

If it's not shown to raise success rates but creates more risk, probably not recommended. 

In any case, maybe the world is just that crazy and doctors en masse are ignoring the magic cure to something that's grinding our nation and world to a halt. I suppose it's an exercise in where we place our cynicism. Some are cynical of the medical establishment writ large (not unfair), others are cynical of an apparatus that doesn't mind puffing up questionable stories and local doctors who go on the evening news. 

If it turns out that is really is a magic cure, there will be HELL to pay. But ignored magical cures are probably a rarity in general.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 12, 2020, 02:30:59 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 12, 2020, 01:41:29 PM
apparently the USA is a country that "limits" use

what the hell is that supposed to mean? 

there are countries than "ban" this drug??  because it's so deadly???

WTH?
Admittedly it's not scientific, but twitter searches on limits and the drug name don't yield much. 

Are we sure that's not just a term used but someone who wanted to make an MS paint graphic to stir folks up and get attention?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 12, 2020, 06:33:08 PM
I think "limits" in this context might mean, "doesn't have the government pushing it, or large numbers of doctors advocating it."

Maybe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 12, 2020, 06:38:49 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on August 12, 2020, 02:26:47 PM
It's assume it's risk/reward.

If it's not shown to raise success rates but creates more risk, probably not recommended.

In any case, maybe the world is just that crazy and doctors en masse are ignoring the magic cure to something that's grinding our nation and world to a halt. I suppose it's an exercise in where we place our cynicism. Some are cynical of the medical establishment writ large (not unfair), others are cynical of an apparatus that doesn't mind puffing up questionable stories and local doctors who go on the evening news.

If it turns out that is really is a magic cure, there will be HELL to pay. But ignored magical cures are probably a rarity in general.

I haven't really seen anyone advocating it as a "magic cure" and I believe it's disingenuous to label it as such, with a pretty clear intention to advance an agenda and dismiss it as charlatanism.

The doctors I've seen advocate it, seem to assert that its use must occur quite early in the infection, and that is when it is effective.  Administering in later stages doesn't help.  If a patient's already at the hospital, they're beyond its reach.

I'm not going to comment on the validity of its use, but as I've been stating for months, the science is pretty clearly not "settled" on it.  There are real, actual doctors all o over the country, and all over the world, that believe it is aiding their patients.  And only one of those doctors, is on record with the whole "demon semen" thing. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 12, 2020, 06:43:09 PM
My understanding is that the more advanced the virus is in a person the less effective it is

this drug is best used either before a person tests positive or very soon thereafter
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 12, 2020, 08:33:28 PM
Has anyone heard from HonestBuckeye?

How his wife is doing

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on August 13, 2020, 01:39:53 AM
I received this today from mom and dad. Grandma put it in her WWII scrapbook. Unfortunately her brother-in-law would be killed. 
https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=10216458292398834&set=a.2762284105259&__cft__[0]=AZUpFhf1Uf2sKE0gLfhK_6G81HANRFth0jNOQcb5-uqVLoAhM8YH52UiIn-sogT3Fr0o5uICmynMgXlsFYjutY4L-NTioFO1Xlee7aiL_0WeWqwcER6bypVcyyrkwEeNndE&__tn__=EH-R
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 13, 2020, 08:40:01 AM
This thread has become a comedy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 13, 2020, 09:02:39 AM
I don't know what you mean by that, but feel free to stop reading it/posting in it if you don't like it. It's a free country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 13, 2020, 09:10:45 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 13, 2020, 08:40:01 AM
This thread has become a comedy.
Please tell us what you find amusing about this thread
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 13, 2020, 09:32:13 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 12, 2020, 01:41:29 PM
apparently the USA is a country that "limits" use

what the hell is that supposed to mean? 

there are countries than "ban" this drug??  because it's so deadly???

WTH?
It's not "deadly."  But there are many adverse side effects, including damage to the heart and other internal organs.  That could lead to early deaths down the road.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 13, 2020, 09:35:15 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on August 13, 2020, 01:39:53 AM
I received this today from mom and dad. Grandma put it in her WWII scrapbook. Unfortunately her brother-in-law would be killed.
https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=10216458292398834&set=a.2762284105259&__cft__[0]=AZUpFhf1Uf2sKE0gLfhK_6G81HANRFth0jNOQcb5-uqVLoAhM8YH52UiIn-sogT3Fr0o5uICmynMgXlsFYjutY4L-NTioFO1Xlee7aiL_0WeWqwcER6bypVcyyrkwEeNndE&__tn__=EH-R
I'm getting "link is broken," Hawkinole.
But I'm not a Facebook member.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 13, 2020, 09:37:39 AM
From the New York Times.


The pandemic’s true toll

The number of U.S. residents who have died since March is now more than 200,000 higher than it would be in a normal year (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/CeK-uMdPbn6u31RQeyoYHA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhF54aP0TbaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC8wOC8xMi91cy9jb3ZpZC1kZWF0aHMtdXMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjAwODEzJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTIxMjI5Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9MTM1NzkxMDI5JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MzU5OTQmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTVhZTZhNGJlMGYyZDAzZThjYzI2MGUwNzI3YTcyM2M1VwNueXRCCgBCGhk1XwR9eTpSE3JicmlnZ3NAYml4Ynlwcy5vcmdYBAAAAAA~), a Times analysis found. Those “excess deaths” most likely reflect the true cost of the pandemic — and suggest that the official death toll may be a substantial undercount.
(https://i.imgur.com/RtMtc4o.png)
By The New York Times | Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
As the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. has moved south from its early epicenter in New York, so have the unusual patterns in deaths from all causes. Many of the recent coronavirus cases and deaths in the South may have been driven largely by reopenings and relaxed social-distancing restrictions.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 13, 2020, 09:44:41 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 13, 2020, 09:37:39 AM
From the New York Times.


The pandemic’s true toll

The number of U.S. residents who have died since March is now more than 200,000 higher than it would be in a normal year (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/CeK-uMdPbn6u31RQeyoYHA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhF54aP0TbaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC8wOC8xMi91cy9jb3ZpZC1kZWF0aHMtdXMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjAwODEzJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTIxMjI5Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9MTM1NzkxMDI5JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MzU5OTQmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPTVhZTZhNGJlMGYyZDAzZThjYzI2MGUwNzI3YTcyM2M1VwNueXRCCgBCGhk1XwR9eTpSE3JicmlnZ3NAYml4Ynlwcy5vcmdYBAAAAAA~), a Times analysis found. Those “excess deaths” most likely reflect the true cost of the pandemic — and suggest that the official death toll may be a substantial undercount.
(https://i.imgur.com/RtMtc4o.png)

By The New York Times | Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

As the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. has moved south from its early epicenter in New York, so have the unusual patterns in deaths from all causes. Many of the recent coronavirus cases and deaths in the South may have been driven largely by reopenings and relaxed social-distancing restrictions.




I believe the opposite to be true. The dock Doc thinks the same, based on our talk last night. He thinks deaths are over-counted by about 50%. 

He does not believe in using HCQ. He does use that steroid treatment, with much success.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 13, 2020, 09:52:20 AM
Gov. Ron DeSantis on Thursday warned against being swayed by “stale” data from the Department of Health on a day that Miami-Dade County reported a massive jump in reported coronavirus cases.

He said a “data dump” from a new lab was responsible for the spike and that he was going to “fix” that with the department but did not elaborate on what that meant.

Miami-Dade reported 4,141 positive COVID-19 cases on Wednesday. Its previous highest recent daily tally was 3,576 on July 12 and the county had not reported more than 2,000 daily cases since Aug. 1.

“Was this a sudden surge in new infections? No. As it turns out it was a data dump from a new private lab that included results from as far back as June. The data was stale. It was not indicative of current trends much less a quote record day of fresh infections in Miami,” DeSantis said during an address about the pandemic from the state Capitol. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on August 13, 2020, 10:03:04 AM
https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/russian-and-other-covid-vaccines/ (https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/russian-and-other-covid-vaccines/)

Good article on vaccine development
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 13, 2020, 10:04:32 AM
tough for many to count cases, deaths, or votes

many experts just can't friggin count
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 13, 2020, 10:21:05 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 13, 2020, 09:44:41 AM
I believe the opposite to be true. The dock Doc thinks the same, based on our talk last night. He thinks deaths are over-counted by about 50%.

He does not believe in using HCQ. He does use that steroid treatment, with much success.
Excess deaths analysis doesn't mean all of them died from COVID. However a lot more people are dying than "normal" in 2020. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 13, 2020, 10:22:26 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on August 13, 2020, 10:03:04 AM
https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/russian-and-other-covid-vaccines/ (https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/russian-and-other-covid-vaccines/)

Good article on vaccine development
One thing I dont think the article stressed was the fact that we are not waiting for a vaccine candidate to be declared the winner before production

It is our goal to start producing the top two or three candidates by the end of September so that when a winner is declared we will already have millions of doses available for distribution
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 13, 2020, 10:24:45 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 13, 2020, 10:21:05 AM
Excess deaths analysis doesn't mean all of them died from COVID. However a lot more people are dying than "normal" in 2020.
Supposedly. I don't know what to believe anymore. I find that to be sad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 13, 2020, 10:40:50 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 13, 2020, 10:24:45 AM
Supposedly. I don't know what to believe anymore. I find that to be sad.
It's the one metric that should be almost entirely free from argument. We can argue about cases. We can argue about attribution of deaths. But we know how many people are dead. That's simple counting.

Yearly deaths are relatively stable and predictable. This year we have a lot more of them than usual, even in excess of those we've attributed to COVID. 

I agree, it's sad. And it's going to take months at least for us to delve into the data fully and explain it all. But number of dead [from any cause] at this time in 2020 compared to number of dead at this time in 2019 or 2018 shouldn't be a number you have trouble believing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 13, 2020, 10:42:25 AM
I'm no convinced the experts can count the dead properly
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 13, 2020, 11:51:08 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 13, 2020, 10:40:50 AM
It's the one metric that should be almost entirely free from argument. We can argue about cases. We can argue about attribution of deaths. But we know how many people are dead. That's simple counting.

Yearly deaths are relatively stable and predictable. This year we have a lot more of them than usual, even in excess of those we've attributed to COVID.

I agree, it's sad. And it's going to take months at least for us to delve into the data fully and explain it all. But number of dead [from any cause] at this time in 2020 compared to number of dead at this time in 2019 or 2018 shouldn't be a number you have trouble believing.
In general I agree, but there's also a lot more confusion and panic right now, in all things related to deaths, categorizing deaths, attributing deaths, than there was in 2019 or 2018. There are also more people looking, more people reporting, more agencies inquiring, more politicians attempting to influence the reporting.  There could be double-counting by various agencies, there could also be lost data from various sources.  Suffice to say the processes and reporting around counting deaths in our country right now in 2020, is incredibly chaotic, compared to other years.

Ultimately the "count" will be static and immutable.  But in the current climate-- with panic and pressure at an all-time high resulting from the 24/7 new cycle and our population's need for instant gratification-- I don't think it's a stretch at all to think that the numbers we're seeing could be wrong, and indeed they could be VERY wrong.  Whether it's too high or too low, or the problems might cancel out, remains to be seen.  But I don't think we're going to know much at all, for months or even years, to be honest.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 13, 2020, 12:33:19 PM
If deaths are easy to count, why do dead people receive checks and other things from the government?

I don't trust any numbers on this. Sorry.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 13, 2020, 01:16:55 PM
I don't trust anyone or any source any longer

well, I still trust Tom Osborne
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 13, 2020, 01:32:42 PM
So... You guys don't trust any numbers. You don't trust any experts. You don't trust the scientists because they might have an "agenda".

What is there to discuss in this thread, then? If no information can be trusted, why talk about the information at all? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 13, 2020, 01:48:26 PM
what info do you trust - what "expert" do you trust?

and why should I trust them?

I'd love to have a reliable source that was trustworthy, really
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 13, 2020, 01:53:10 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 13, 2020, 01:32:42 PM
So... You guys don't trust any numbers. You don't trust any experts. You don't trust the scientists because they might have an "agenda".

What is there to discuss in this thread, then? If no information can be trusted, why talk about the information at all?
We still don't know enough about this thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 13, 2020, 02:29:13 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 13, 2020, 01:48:26 PM
what info do you trust - what "expert" do you trust?

and why should I trust them?

I'd love to have a reliable source that was trustworthy, really
There's no single source of truth on this thing... 

Generally, I trust the experts in the field as long as they're speaking about things within their wheelhouse. For example, I trust Fauci as an expert on infectious diseases; he's not an economic expert. I trust the people trying to obtain and compile the numbers on this thing--I don't think the folks at Johns Hopkins are biased either way. I think they're trying to get it right. I think that for the most part, the people trying to create models are doing their best to be right. There are competing models, and being consistently wrong while others are consistently closer to the target doesn't help your reputation in the field. 

Effectively, if you look at numbers/predictions, and if you looked at the health discussions, back in March they were all over the map because we didn't know very much. As we've learned more and more, I think the error bars have tightened and our information has gotten "better" from the "experts". Is it 100% there? Of course not. But I firmly believe it's a heck of a lot closer to the truth than whatever our guts tell us. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 13, 2020, 02:34:00 PM
The problem with the numbers is the ways the different states report them. Look at the gaffe in Florida, for example, or look at Wisconsin, which keeps data marked as preliminary for two weeks before finalizing.

None of this is in real time. The Dock Doc told me last night that he is now waiting up to 14 days for test results from Quest. What good is the result if it's 14 days later?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 13, 2020, 02:52:25 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 13, 2020, 02:34:00 PM
The problem with the numbers is the ways the different states report them. Look at the gaffe in Florida, for example, or look at Wisconsin, which keeps data marked as preliminary for two weeks before finalizing.

None of this is in real time. The Dock Doc told me last night that he is now waiting up to 14 days for test results from Quest. What good is the result if it's 14 days later?
That's true. We just had a major issue here in California where we had something like a 295,000 test backlog. Our Public Health Director just resigned over it:

https://www.npr.org/2020/08/10/901064484/california-coronavirus-testing-problem-prompts-resignation-of-public-health-offi (https://www.npr.org/2020/08/10/901064484/california-coronavirus-testing-problem-prompts-resignation-of-public-health-offi)

This is obviously a problem because if you're trying to base reopening/lockdown decisions on case rates and positive test rates, and you're not getting timely information, you're making decisions on incomplete data. 

But look at what has happened?

In Florida, the state garnered major negative media attention because their health director resigned claiming she was being asked to falsify data. In California, the health director wasn't trying to falsify data; she just was the "buck stops here" person who had to resign when it was publicized that the data had issues. People are trying to fix these problems and get to better numbers. 

But that's a reason to take certain numbers with a grain of salt and assume that the 95% confidence interval of reality is wider than the current "official" number, not to act like every number we see is bullshit. 

Experts are doing their level best to figure this stuff out. Their error bars are a lot tighter than us laymen and our gut feelings about this stuff.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 13, 2020, 03:03:14 PM
If we assume that the true number of cases is roughly 10 times what has been reported, it would mean that 25% of Florida has had the thing.

This assumption is based on a study from the University of Miami.


Testing in Florida has seen steady growth. Experts suggest it's still not enough. A recent study in Miami-Dade County found that current limited testing capacity [color=var(--lc)]indicates the actual infection rate is likely ten times higher.[/color] (https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242260406.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 13, 2020, 03:16:56 PM
so, Fauci and Johns Hopkins

I'm leery as hell of Fauci, mostly because he states things he certainly isn't sure about.  Probably because he''s getting bad information and stats.

So, in other words, Fauci doesn't know who to trust but doesn't have the time to check everything and has to say something
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 13, 2020, 03:18:27 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 13, 2020, 02:34:00 PM
None of this is in real time. The Dock Doc told me last night that he is now waiting up to 14 days for test results from Quest. What good is the result if it's 14 days later?
What about HIS agenda, though?!!?  14 days, huh?  Sounds fishy to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 13, 2020, 03:21:07 PM
I can't help but read that as "duck doc" every time
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 13, 2020, 03:24:49 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 13, 2020, 03:18:27 PM
What about HIS agenda, though?!!?  14 days, huh?  Sounds fishy to me.
When I last got tested (CVS, who also uses Quest Diagnostics) it took 16 days. So, useless.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 13, 2020, 03:50:35 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 13, 2020, 03:03:14 PM
If we assume that the true number of cases is roughly 10 times what has been reported, it would mean that 25% of Florida has had the thing.

This assumption is based on a study from the University of Miami.


Testing in Florida has seen steady growth. Experts suggest it's still not enough. A recent study in Miami-Dade County found that current limited testing capacity [color=var(--lc)]indicates the actual infection rate is likely ten times higher.[/color] (https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242260406.html)
I'm not entirely sure we can extrapolate directly to say 10x, when comparing dense city numbers to an entire state. But this is the second serological study (previous being NYC) that suggests a 10x relationship between actual and confirmed infections. 

If that's the case it's just another 8-10M more infections needed in FL and you'll be at herd immunity!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 13, 2020, 04:11:37 PM
Yippee!!

I either got it down there and brought it back, or I got it on the plane ride home. Glad to contribute to the herd.

I still (maybe wishfully) think half of us have had it. Dock Doc did not raise his eyebrows when I threw that number out last night.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 13, 2020, 06:26:55 PM
I still think I got it in March despite negative AB testing in June.  I've had a lingering cough for 5 months now.  I don't ever get a cough.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 14, 2020, 09:32:40 AM
AB's only last 2-3 months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 14, 2020, 09:41:29 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 14, 2020, 09:32:40 AM
AB's only last 2-3 months.
Yup.

And actually, I don't really believe I had it.  But I don't have any other explanation for a light cough that has persisted for 5 months now.  I'm not kidding when I say I never, ever get coughs.  Not since I was a very small child.  I don't get sick very often, but when I do it's generally the fever/body aches variety.  This thing, is something else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 14, 2020, 09:48:37 AM
I believe 50% of the USA has had it, and that you are one of us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 14, 2020, 09:55:20 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 14, 2020, 09:48:37 AM
I believe 50% of the USA has had it, and that you are one of us.

Don't know about 50%, but here's an article where researchers are suggesting that 40% may be enough to reach herd immunity in certain geographical areas:

https://www.newsweek.com/herd-immunity-slowing-virus-us-1525089?amp=1&__twitter_impression=true

I (https://www.newsweek.com/herd-immunity-slowing-virus-us-1525089?amp=1&__twitter_impression=true)'m not sure completely agree with them, especially when they're citing the slow-down of spread in Texas as evidence of potentially approaching herd immunity, because I think it's more closely linked to more widespread mask-wearing and improved distancing behaviors, but it's still another viewpoint.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on August 14, 2020, 09:57:27 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 14, 2020, 09:48:37 AM
I believe 50% of the USA has had it, and that you are one of us.
I know a lot of people now who have officially had it. I am inclined to agree with you. My cousin had it, but his wife and his 3 kids didn't? Yep, OK. They all had it and four were asymptomatic and he was symptomatic.

There are a ton of people who had it, never even knew they had it, or they just had headaches and a head cold. Both of my sisters had it, one was very sick for about a week, and the other all she had was a bad headache and a head cold. She got tested three times, all came back positive.

This thing is not that deadly. This is all hype. It has killed the very old, people with pre-existing conditions like extreme obesity, heart disease, and diabetes, and then those with weakened immune system due to drugs/disease. And that's basically it. Bunch of pansies have ruined the god damn world. People need to man the f*** up and grow a pair.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 14, 2020, 10:14:34 AM
Quote from: utee94 on August 14, 2020, 09:41:29 AM
Yup.

And actually, I don't really believe I had it.  But I don't have any other explanation for a light cough that has persisted for 5 months now.  I'm not kidding when I say I never, ever get coughs.  Not since I was a very small child.  I don't get sick very often, but when I do it's generally the fever/body aches variety.  This thing, is something else.

Maybe you're allergic to WFH? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 14, 2020, 12:31:43 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 14, 2020, 10:14:34 AM
Maybe you're allergic to WFH?

Ha!  I was working from home 90% of the time anyway.

But, maybe I'm allergic to my KIDS?  That would not be a shocker. ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 14, 2020, 01:44:29 PM
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1291860659118804992 (https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1291860659118804992)


Interesting read.


This too.


https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article244930467.html (https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article244930467.html)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 14, 2020, 03:59:49 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/sL1L3mv.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 14, 2020, 06:37:48 PM
SHENZHEN, China — A sample of frozen chicken wings imported from Brazil has tested positive for the novel coronavirus in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen, authorities said Thursday, the latest in a series of reports of contaminated imported food products.

The coronavirus was detected Wednesday on a surface sample taken from a batch of chicken wings during screening of imported frozen food in Longgang district of Shenzhen, the municipal government said in a statement. Officials did not name the brand.

Health authorities, including the World Health Organization (WHO) and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), have said the possibility of catching the virus through food is low.


Shenzhen health authorities immediately traced and tested people who might have come into contact with the product, and all results came back negative. All related products in stock have been sealed off and tested negative, the statement said.

Authorities are now tracing related products from the same brand that have already been sold and have disinfected the area where the contaminated chicken wings were stored.

Brazil has so far reported more than 3.1 million coronavirus cases, the second highest in the world after the United States, according to Johns Hopkins University's tally.

News of the contaminated chicken wings comes a day after coronavirus was found on the packaging of shrimp imported from Ecuador, another South American country, at a restaurant in eastern Anhui province during a routine inspection, China's state broadcaster CCTV reported.


Since July, there have been seven instances where the virus was detected on the packaging of imported seafood products across the country, from Shandong province on the eastern coast to the municipality of Chongqing in the west, according to state media reports.

These incidents have sparked concerns over the safety of imported foods. Chinese health authorities have repeatedly told the public to be cautious about buying imported meat and seafood. On Chinese social media, some have called for the suspension of all frozen food imports.


David Hui Shu-cheong, a respiratory medicine expert at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said the imported food products that tested positive in China were almost certain to have been contaminated during packaging.

But he said it doesn't necessarily mean that they're infectious; the nucleic acid tests could be picking up the RNA of dead virus. These remnants of the virus are known to have caused false positive results on patients who have recovered from the coronavirus, such as in South Korea.

If the virus taken from the food products can be grown in labs, however, then they are infectious, he said, adding that the coronavirus can survive freezing temperatures and still be active when thawed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 14, 2020, 07:14:07 PM
Lulz.  The Chinese are worried about importing their own virus.

That's some good shit right there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 14, 2020, 08:16:52 PM
what goes around comes around

and KArma
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 15, 2020, 02:16:40 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on August 14, 2020, 09:57:27 AM
Bunch of pansies have ruined the god damn world. People need to man the f*** up and grow a pair.
Do grow up someday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 15, 2020, 12:20:34 PM
Yesterday's report from The Dispatch:


(https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F811e5c1d-5fa7-4965-943a-b136440b4830_898x291.png) (https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F811e5c1d-5fa7-4965-943a-b136440b4830_898x291.png)(https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F87284339-1b30-4ea9-b09c-3356e4c0ef66_1197x375.png) (https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F87284339-1b30-4ea9-b09c-3356e4c0ef66_1197x375.png)

It's the equivalent of three loaded-to-the-gills Boeing 747s crashing with a total loss of life every day in the U.S.A.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 15, 2020, 12:28:45 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 15, 2020, 02:16:40 AM
Do grow up someday.



Yes, everyone needs to stop acting childish, and curl up into the fetal position. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on August 15, 2020, 02:58:34 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 15, 2020, 02:16:40 AM
Do grow up someday.
Says the biggest cupcake on here. The irony is delicious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on August 15, 2020, 06:03:17 PM
WVU’s athletic department released some numbers today.  Dating back to June they have conducted 823 Covid Tests on athletes, coaches, and support staff.  There are currently 3 active cases. One is from an Olympic sport athlete and 2 are support staff. There have been 46 recoveries.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 15, 2020, 06:14:57 PM
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 15, 2020, 12:28:45 PM


Yes, everyone needs to stop acting childish, and curl up into the fetal position.
You're right, if/when you get Covid 19, you'll just out-tough it.  

Go watch a truck commerical.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 15, 2020, 06:38:25 PM
The OU football team took a week off due to the season being postponed from the planned 29 August opener.  Came back yesterday and 9 guys tested positive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 16, 2020, 01:20:04 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 15, 2020, 06:14:57 PM
You're right, if/when you get Covid 19, you'll just out-tough it. 

Go watch a truck commerical.
Go watch a tampon commercial you might even be able to star in one
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 16, 2020, 01:20:54 AM
Quote from: utee94 on August 14, 2020, 07:14:07 PM
Lulz.  The Chinese are worried about importing their own virus.

That's some good shit right there.

Ya bat shit crazy
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 16, 2020, 01:27:08 AM
Quote from: utee94 on August 14, 2020, 12:31:43 PM
But, maybe I'm allergic to my KIDS?  That would not be a shocker. ;)
My guess is Live Oak and smoked briskett
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 16, 2020, 07:13:50 AM
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/)

Sweden continues to be interesting ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 16, 2020, 05:33:02 PM
Georgia numbers appear to have crested and heading down, slightly, except deaths (which lags).

I still don't understand this unless some of us have some sort of resistance.  I don't think it's due to more folks taking precautions.

People are out and about today for sure.  It's a pretty nice summer day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 16, 2020, 05:35:45 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on August 16, 2020, 01:20:04 AM
Go watch a tampon commercial you might even be able to star in one
You guys aren't good at burns.  Keep trying, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 16, 2020, 07:03:53 PM
New weekly positives have shrunk for the 4th week in a row as of 8/13/20

the weekly high of 475,026 happened week ending 7/16/20 since then the weekly number has decreased 

and as of week ending 8/13/20 the number of new positives was down to 397,194  

we might have turned the corner and if we keep doing the right things maybe it will continue

course with the school year openings there is a big question about what will happen so stay tuned
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 16, 2020, 07:20:04 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 16, 2020, 05:35:45 PM
You guys aren't good at burns.  Keep trying, though.
It was a testimony not a burn
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 16, 2020, 07:39:41 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on August 16, 2020, 07:20:04 PM
It was a testimony not a burn
Still ineffective, whatever you want to call it.  I expect more.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 16, 2020, 07:47:16 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 16, 2020, 07:39:41 PM
Still ineffective, whatever you want to call it.  I expect more.
ok children dont make me pull this car over
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 16, 2020, 07:55:47 PM
Well Pa I know he's not your favorite,'Murica
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 16, 2020, 08:14:23 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on August 16, 2020, 07:55:47 PM
Well Pa I know he's not your favorite,'Murica
my love is blind
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2020, 07:26:04 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 16, 2020, 05:33:02 PM
Georgia numbers appear to have crested and heading down, slightly, except deaths (which lags).

I still don't understand this unless some of us have some sort of resistance.  I don't think it's due to more folks taking precautions.

People are out and about today for sure.  It's a pretty nice summer day.
Same for Florida. Cases are going down. Deaths are hovering back and forth.

Average age for new cases is 29. Damn kids. The people who are dying, who should be mad at the damn kids... average 84.

Kids suck.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 07:40:00 AM
I was not very responsible when I was 20ish.  I suspect that isn't singular.

Kids want to have fun, and they are going to figure out a way.

And, they read that the threat to THEM is low.  It's just the flu etc.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 17, 2020, 07:54:43 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 07:40:00 AM
I was not very responsible when I was 20ish.  I suspect that isn't singular.

Kids want to have fun, and they are going to figure out a way.

And, they read that the threat to THEM is low.  It's just the flu etc.
I can't imagine where they would be reading irresponsible junk like that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2020, 07:57:00 AM
I owned my first house at age 20. Couldn't even legally celebrate with a drink.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 17, 2020, 07:58:32 AM
I hope you didn't become a law-breaker, Badge.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 07:58:57 AM
I was in grad school before my 21st.  We had to take days of qualifying tests that were exhausting and after I walked up to a bar on Franklin Street to get a drink.  They informed me they did not serve mixed drinks.

Huh.  Coming from Athens, that was a change.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2020, 08:33:25 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 17, 2020, 07:58:32 AM
I hope you didn't become a law-breaker, Badge.
Nah. Just drove to Wisconsin, where the drinking age was 18.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 17, 2020, 09:43:11 AM
just in case you missed it heres an interesting article

https://www.foxnews.com/health/lasting-immunity-seen-mild-covid-19-infection-studies-say (https://www.foxnews.com/health/lasting-immunity-seen-mild-covid-19-infection-studies-say)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 09:44:58 AM
Two scenarios which we're likely to see played out:

1.  College football player lives on campus and plays football.

2.  College football player lives "at home" and doesn't play football and takes on line classes.

What percentage of each group will contract COVID?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2020, 10:01:08 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 17, 2020, 09:43:11 AM
just in case you missed it heres an interesting article

https://www.foxnews.com/health/lasting-immunity-seen-mild-covid-19-infection-studies-say (https://www.foxnews.com/health/lasting-immunity-seen-mild-covid-19-infection-studies-say)
I saw that. Very encouraging.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 17, 2020, 10:04:03 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 09:44:58 AM
Two scenarios which we're likely to see played out:

1.  College football player lives on campus and plays football.

2.  College football player lives "at home" and doesn't play football and takes on line classes.

What percentage of each group will contract COVID?
What do the quotes around “at home” mean?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 10:10:06 AM
"At home" means living wherever they would live were they not football players.  Maybe they live in an athletic dorm, whatever.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 17, 2020, 11:32:49 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 09:44:58 AM
Two scenarios which we're likely to see played out:

1.  College football player lives on campus and plays football.

2.  College football player lives "at home" and doesn't play football and takes on line classes.

What percentage of each group will contract COVID?
The better question, is which group has more control over being in situations where they might contract COVID?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 17, 2020, 11:50:17 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 10:10:06 AM
"At home" means living wherever they would live were they not football players.  Maybe they live in an athletic dorm, whatever.
So this part seems like a bit of a misnomer. Those two scenarios aren't exactly right.

A player is on campus in almost every scenario. They don't get forced to move or forced to leave if there's no football. Why would they? The full campus works against football, and since the players are still students, they're not sent home when no one else is. If they didn't let students back, football would be far more workable. 

Now going off that, it means players are probably only a bit more safe with students around and not playing. They don't have the extra exposure of required close contact with a different group. They do have a drop in motivation to stay safe because there's no game payoff. They also don't have an enterprise riding on their failure or success, which itself is somewhat meaningful, likely more for schools and folks with skin in the game than those without. 

It seemed like the home thing gained some traction before players returned to campus and got an extra boost when Lawrence made it a point, even though it's not all that salient, as players were almost assuredly not leaving campus unless they empty campuses again 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 11:57:28 AM
I don't see a whole lot of difference in likely infection rates among players regardless of their situations.

Now, the exception would be if a team has a "superspreader", if that is a real thing, in the locker room.  The locker room situation worries me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 12:16:37 PM
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2251615-is-swedens-coronavirus-strategy-a-cautionary-tale-or-a-success-story/?fbclid=IwAR3sjV1P2ftnmpfUm_fOikSGitxEf8Pdu50pO9KdMmxzCeHniw2sUjRovY8#ixzz6V2JcnC3Y (https://www.newscientist.com/article/2251615-is-swedens-coronavirus-strategy-a-cautionary-tale-or-a-success-story/?fbclid=IwAR3sjV1P2ftnmpfUm_fOikSGitxEf8Pdu50pO9KdMmxzCeHniw2sUjRovY8#ixzz6V2JcnC3Y)

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/05/sweden-coronavirus-record-gdp-fall-still-outperformed-some-in-europe.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/05/sweden-coronavirus-record-gdp-fall-still-outperformed-some-in-europe.html)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 17, 2020, 02:30:45 PM
Italy had mostly reopened, but in the wake of rising cases, they're returning some of the requirements from lockdown. So far only closing nightclubs and mandating masks again (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/italy-shutters-nightclubs-mandates-masks-as-coronavirus-case-numbers-rise-again/2020/08/17/24e5e2e4-e066-11ea-82d8-5e55d47e90ca_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_virusitaly-1045a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans)...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 17, 2020, 03:22:42 PM
Spain, Italy.  Anyone that drove cases down by keeping bars and other indoor spaces closed, and then opened them up, is going to see the cases rise again.

Lather, rinse, repeat.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on August 17, 2020, 04:30:48 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 17, 2020, 03:22:42 PM
Spain, Italy.  Anyone that drove cases down by keeping bars and other indoor spaces closed, and then opened them up, is going to see the cases rise again.

Lather, rinse, repeat.
Which is why Sweden got it right. Rest of us idiots in the free world got it wrong. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 04:45:15 PM
I don't think anyone got it right, maybe Japan and South Korea would be the best at it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 04:48:08 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/17/university-of-north-carolina-shifts-in-person-classes-to-remote-learning-after-coronavirus-outbreak-on-campus.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/17/university-of-north-carolina-shifts-in-person-classes-to-remote-learning-after-coronavirus-outbreak-on-campus.html)

SO, UNC had an apparent near explosion in cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 17, 2020, 04:49:34 PM
not surprising and I expect more bad news form schools
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2020, 04:53:22 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 17, 2020, 04:49:34 PM
not surprising and I expect more bad news form schools
Yeah, I agree, and I think this ends any chance of football, again.  I don't see how they avoid it, the Spread ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 17, 2020, 04:55:48 PM
yup, when they send the students home, the football playing students are going home
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 17, 2020, 06:19:46 PM
The rise in cases was expected.

How many of them are actually ill?  How many are suffering?  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 17, 2020, 06:21:49 PM
But, UNC certainly did what was expected.  Pretend you're going to have in-person classes to get the tuition payments in the bank, then cancel in-person classes and provide an unbelievably expensive and unacceptably poor online-only experience.  They duped their students (and their parents) perfectly.  So congrats to them, I guess.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 17, 2020, 06:28:57 PM
I won't be shocked to see the same from Purdue in couple weeks...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on August 17, 2020, 07:04:41 PM
I think if we are going to group young people together, we need to either live with the consequences.  Make the university the bubble.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 17, 2020, 09:50:29 PM
We could all stop pretending football is truly important?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 17, 2020, 09:54:55 PM
not on this forum
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 17, 2020, 10:14:00 PM
good Lord OAM is loose terrorizing the community again
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 17, 2020, 10:27:31 PM
HA!That is Crazy Talk
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 18, 2020, 08:05:42 AM
Quote from: utee94 on August 17, 2020, 06:21:49 PM
But, UNC certainly did what was expected.  Pretend you're going to have in-person classes to get the tuition payments in the bank, then cancel in-person classes and provide an unbelievably expensive and unacceptably poor online-only experience.  They duped their students (and their parents) perfectly.  So congrats to them, I guess.


I saw an SI writer float this idea. On one hand, it makes sense. On another, it was doing what a lot of folks want.

If you aren't canceling now, there seem to be two alternatives. 
1. Have not brought anyone back to start.
2. Solider on for another few weeks. 

Folks mostly not excited with what's happening now wouldn't have been excited with 1. I suppose the answer would be to just keep giving it the old college try longer, but is there a time range for the spike? Three or four weeks? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 18, 2020, 08:07:03 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 17, 2020, 04:55:48 PM
yup, when they send the students home, the football playing students are going home
... Maybe not. 

A campus without students is more like a bubble. Those kids are well overseen and getting higher end medical care. Could work. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 18, 2020, 08:39:48 AM
Wisconsin (state of) is looking really good on the (known) numbers. The 7 day averaged peaked on 7/26, with 930 cases per day. Right now, it's at 733 cases per day.

The state has had 66K known cases and 1039 deaths (1.6%). 

If we multiply that number of known cases by 10, the death rate is 0.16%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 18, 2020, 08:43:37 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmjsLyTW5EY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmjsLyTW5EY)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 18, 2020, 08:48:42 AM
I think a combination of vaccine and herd immunity will get us there.

Some poll on the MSN home page said that 1/3 of Americans would not get a vaccine, if available.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 18, 2020, 09:33:22 AM
they might change their minds

dumbasses
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on August 18, 2020, 10:36:41 AM
Particularly if schools don't let kids in without it, "religious exemption" be damned
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on August 18, 2020, 10:41:14 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 18, 2020, 09:33:22 AM
they might change their minds

dumbasses
If they're anything like the ardent anti-vaxxers I know, they won't change their minds. They'll double down and homeschool.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 18, 2020, 10:49:17 AM
I'd get the vaccine... But I'm not gonna be first in line. I can WFH for a while and wait a month or 6 weeks after it's introduced to make sure we don't see some terrible side effect that slipped through the initial testing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 18, 2020, 11:25:10 AM
Quote from: ELA on August 18, 2020, 10:36:41 AM
Particularly if schools don't let kids in without it, "religious exemption" be damned
HA!
ISWYDT
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 18, 2020, 11:26:45 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 18, 2020, 10:49:17 AM
I'd get the vaccine... But I'm not gonna be first in line. I can WFH for a while and wait a month or 6 weeks after it's introduced to make sure we don't see some terrible side effect that slipped through the initial testing.
Like making home brews taste revolting
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 18, 2020, 11:34:22 AM
That, and making smoked meats smell like rotten eggs. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 18, 2020, 12:29:02 PM
The City of Chicago removed Wisconsin from its mandatory 14 day quarantine list today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 18, 2020, 12:30:12 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 18, 2020, 12:29:02 PM
The City of Chicago removed Wisconsin from its mandatory 14 day quarantine list today.
wow I bet they are really happy bout that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 18, 2020, 12:31:39 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 18, 2020, 12:30:12 PM
wow I bet they are really happy bout that
The many thousands of Chicagoans with lake homes and boats and cottages in Wisconsin are certainly happy about it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 18, 2020, 12:43:48 PM
As are the Wisconsonians that would like to increase their chances of getting their ass kicked. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 18, 2020, 12:53:22 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 18, 2020, 12:29:02 PM
The City of Chicago removed Wisconsin from its mandatory 14 day quarantine list today.
What does "mandatory" actually mean here?

Is that enforced, at all, for anyone?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 18, 2020, 01:00:30 PM
Supposedly it is enforced, but I'm not sure how. There are cameras at the toll booths near the border, and property ownership is public record.

Maybe that's how. But, I think it's just a way for the mayor to say she's "doing" something.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 18, 2020, 01:09:43 PM
I'd bet it was mandatory in name only and not a single solitary person was even warned.

My friend got back from Egypt in the middle of this (April) and they handed him a pamphlet and asked him to isolate two weeks (which he did).

This stuff is not remotely enforceable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 18, 2020, 01:23:20 PM
For a while Utah tried to text people via amber alerts as they crossed the border, but the amber alerts were being picked up randomly by people all over town, so they had to scrap the whole process a few hours after it launched. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 18, 2020, 01:26:02 PM
From the city website:

Individuals found in violation of the Order are subject to fines of $100 - $500 per day, up to $7,000.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/destinations/2020/08/05/chicago-health-officials-checking-social-media-posts-enforce-traveler-quarantine/3298863001/ (https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/destinations/2020/08/05/chicago-health-officials-checking-social-media-posts-enforce-traveler-quarantine/3298863001/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 18, 2020, 01:30:31 PM
How do they know who came in from wherever?  There must be thousands and more folks arriving daily in the city from wherever.  And they check all those SM sites?

I doubt it.  This is bluster, and probably uncon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 18, 2020, 01:38:11 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 18, 2020, 01:09:43 PM
I'd bet it was mandatory in name only and not a single solitary person was even warned.

My friend got back from Egypt in the middle of this (April) and they handed him a pamphlet and asked him to isolate two weeks (which he did).

This stuff is not remotely enforceable.
Well, I don't think we've really even tried, here. 

I think Hawaii actually did enforce it. Because they're an island nation and people basically arrive by plane or ship, they were able to know who was incoming. I believe they actually did track it.

Overseas, they have done much more to enforce. A girl I work with had to go to Taiwan due to a death in her family, and she had to have an app on her phone to track. She was restricted to ONLY being in her hotel room for either 10 or 14 days. 

But to a large extent, because of the significant amount of mobility [especially by car and nearly untraceable] between states in the US, they can't do a very good job figuring out who is where and don't have the infrastructure or manpower to follow up to make sure people are doing it--and Americans would probably revolt if they tried. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 18, 2020, 01:39:51 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 18, 2020, 01:30:31 PM
How do they know who came in from wherever?  There must be thousands and more folks arriving daily in the city from wherever.  And they check all those SM sites?

I doubt it.  This is bluster, and probably uncon.
This is precisely why the government is pushing the whole fake COVID story.  Once they implant the Bill Gates 5G chips in all of us with the completely unnecessary vaccine for  hoax virus, it'll be a lot easier for them to track-- and control-- our movements.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 18, 2020, 01:46:21 PM
We all carry a tracking device voluntarily at all times, and pay a pretty penny to do so in most cases. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 18, 2020, 01:47:05 PM
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 18, 2020, 01:46:21 PM
We all carry a tracking device voluntarily at all times, and pay a pretty penny to do so in most cases.
My 2013 Samsung Galaxy says hello.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 18, 2020, 01:52:54 PM
That's one of the predictions that many sci fi productions of yesteryear got wrong. 

They all had that tracking device scene where the guy was strapped to the table, and some robotic arm came down and inserted the tracking chip into his belly button, or behind his eye, or onto his spine. 

Nope. Make it a phone and a camera, and give it internet access. The masses will stand in line for hours, hoping to get the latest version of their tracking device. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 18, 2020, 02:17:54 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 18, 2020, 01:39:51 PM
This is precisely why the government is pushing the whole fake COVID story.  Once they implant the Bill Gates 5G chips in all of us with the completely unnecessary vaccine for  hoax virus, it'll be a lot easier for them to track-- and control-- our movements.
need to get your ass to Mars
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 18, 2020, 02:32:46 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 18, 2020, 02:17:54 PM
need to get your ass to Mars
He was funnin' and you bit.But his jest may be more accurate than he thinx - cause sumptin' smells in Denmark
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 18, 2020, 02:56:15 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on August 18, 2020, 02:32:46 PM
He was funnin' and you bit.But his jest may be more accurate than he thinx - cause sumptin' smells in Denmark
get your ass to Mars is a line from the movie Total Recall 

I was funin too
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 18, 2020, 03:09:18 PM
"They must have been spies, or something!"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 18, 2020, 05:07:52 PM
Spies from the Egg Lobby right there, plus nephilim on UFOs.  I learned that last bit in Area 51.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 18, 2020, 05:33:06 PM
(https://www.iowaegg.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/eggy_classroom.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 18, 2020, 06:44:34 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 18, 2020, 08:48:42 AM
I think a combination of vaccine and herd immunity will get us there.

Some poll on the MSN home page said that 1/3 of Americans would not get a vaccine, if available.
I wonder if they are the same people who refuse to wear masks and also want everything to open up immediately.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 18, 2020, 06:52:31 PM
If 1/3 are actually willing to say they won't, then I'd expect the true number to be a larger than that, if only out of laziness and inconvenience, rather than defiance.

I'd certainly get one-- after watching and waithing for at least a couple months to see how things go.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 18, 2020, 07:11:14 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 18, 2020, 06:52:31 PM
If 1/3 are actually willing to say they won't, then I'd expect the true number to be a larger than that, if only out of laziness and inconvenience, rather than defiance.

I'd certainly get one-- after watching and waithing for at least a couple months to see how things go.


not me man Im first in line

I just hope we wont have to get a 2nd shot later on
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on August 19, 2020, 12:43:54 AM
I think the initial tests make it relatively certain that the vaccine is safe. If 30,000 receive it in Phase 3, which is going slower than we would like, we should have a good idea about safety, and somewhat of an idea about efficacy. This is August. I think we will have no idea until around March or April at the earliest.
I read an article tonight that suggested the Phase 3 testing is slowed because of the lack of black and latinos participating, and they are slowing until they can recruit more in that these people are in the demographics with the highest rates of infection. They need more participants who are more likely to be exposed to the virus. This was in regard to the Moderna tests.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 19, 2020, 07:40:00 AM
From a public health standpoint, we only need about 60% vaccinated to close the door on this.  The problem is we might need repeats if immunity is not longer lasting.

The risk is of some malady that doesn't show up in a population for years.  I view that probability as being low given the basic nature of these vaccines.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 19, 2020, 07:42:19 AM
Ga definitely is trending down now in new infections reported.  I still wonder why.  Some may be the news scared folks into being more careful.  Some may be wider use of face masks.  And some could be that residual resistance thing (we hope it exists).

Maybe in a year or so "we" will start to understand what really happened.

Imagine that it's not resistance from some earlier similar coronavirus, but this thing is even more contagious than we think, AND more asymptomatic.  Ergo, it spread like wildfire back in April/May/June despite any shutdowns, but 80% of those folks had no symptoms (hypothesis).  So, they were not tested, generally speaking.  But they spread it.

And now we've reached HI without knowing it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 19, 2020, 07:56:58 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 19, 2020, 07:42:19 AM

And now we've reached HI without knowing it?
I don't know that we are quite there yet, but we might be getting closer. It's possible that 50% of us have had it.

Wisconsin is trending way down, and they were among the first to open up - while it was still too early to sit outside and eat/drank. There was a pretty big spike in early July here, mostly tied to gatherings. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 19, 2020, 08:01:58 AM
Obviously, as a community closes in on HI, R naught is going to drop, it's not all or nothing.

If "we" are at say 50%, that would slow the spread ... which is what we're seeing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 19, 2020, 08:09:55 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 19, 2020, 08:01:58 AM
Obviously, as a community closes in on HI, R naught is going to drop, it's not all or nothing.

If "we" are at say 50%, that would slow the spread ... which is what we're seeing.
In most places, yes. As more travel happens, we'll see more cases among those who have isolated, to a degree.

I'm curious as to what might happen as the result of the huge party in Sturgis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 19, 2020, 08:14:23 AM
With 9,758 deaths, Florida sits at a 0.23% death rate. Conservatively assuming that there are 10x as many people infected than the testing shows, the death rate is 0.023%.

Deaths have been increasing on the 7 day average, but hospital admissions are shrinking. This is a very positive sign that says we might be past the worst.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 19, 2020, 08:24:39 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 19, 2020, 08:09:55 AM
I'm curious as to what might happen as the result of the huge party in Sturgis.
Those folks generally speaking may not be adhering to guidelines very well at home, so perhaps not much.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 19, 2020, 08:30:21 AM
Good logic, and possibly more evidence that herd immunity is gaining steam.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 19, 2020, 08:35:46 AM
I keep citing "area under the curve" as being a constant.  That may or may not prove true.  Could an island nation like NZ actually keep this near zero?  Maybe, but perhaps it breaks out in 6 months there (sans vaccine).

I do not know.  The Sweden experience still puzzles me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 19, 2020, 09:09:39 AM
This could be battle for the next year or possibly even 2 years. It all depends on travel (people moving around the world). Unless a vaccine is approved and used, that is.

We could beat it here, but then when people start coming over from other places, who knows??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 19, 2020, 11:09:49 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 19, 2020, 08:35:46 AM
I keep citing "area under the curve" as being a constant.  That may or may not prove true.  Could an island nation like NZ actually keep this near zero?  Maybe, but perhaps it breaks out in 6 months there (sans vaccine).

I do not know.  The Sweden experience still puzzles me.
If NZ ever "opens up" they're going to have increased cases.  This thing is going to bounce around for years, and they haven't given their population any chance at all to start developing herd immunity.  

I don't disagree with their initial plan, we had no idea what this thing really was.  But at this point, they're simply delaying the inevitable.  

The path is determined-- open slowly, manage the hospitals, and move back to normal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 19, 2020, 12:00:29 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 19, 2020, 11:09:49 AM
If NZ ever "opens up" they're going to have increased cases.  This thing is going to bounce around for years, and they haven't given their population any chance at all to start developing herd immunity. 

I don't disagree with their initial plan, we had no idea what this thing really was.  But at this point, they're simply delaying the inevitable. 

The path is determined-- open slowly, manage the hospitals, and move back to normal.
The thing is that because they're an island nation that can tightly control anyone coming into the country, their lockdown wasn't a "lockdown" once they knocked out the cases. They lifted all restrictions (except people coming across their borders) way back in June, and went >100 days without a single case. 

So they fully opened up their economy, just not their borders. Unfortunately about 104 days in, they had a case and now a cluster, that they're dealing with. 

If they can manage this way until a vaccine is available, then they can fully reopen their borders as well. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 19, 2020, 02:21:06 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 19, 2020, 12:00:29 PM
The thing is that because they're an island nation that can tightly control anyone coming into the country, their lockdown wasn't a "lockdown" once they knocked out the cases. They lifted all restrictions (except people coming across their borders) way back in June, and went >100 days without a single case.

So they fully opened up their economy, just not their borders. Unfortunately about 104 days in, they had a case and now a cluster, that they're dealing with.

If they can manage this way until a vaccine is available, then they can fully reopen their borders as well.

Yeah... I know... I'm talking about opening up their island, not their economy.  By no means can you call their island borders "open" right now and, with what minimal entrance they've allowed, and yet they still have already seen a new cluster of spreading infection, as you pointed out. 

Which is precisely my point.  If they want to keep the borders closed to their island forever, that's the only way they're not going to see the spread of infection.  Because their isolated population has never had an opportunity to develop any immunity whatsoever.  Given that tourism is 6% of their economy and is their biggest export industry, I'm not confident they can afford to remain isolated indefinitely.

I also am making no assumptions that there will ever be an effective vaccine, in fact quite the opposite.  If they're counting on that as the only way to get them out of their isolation, well, I don't think that's a wise plan.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 19, 2020, 02:58:41 PM
Scientists See Signs of Lasting Immunity to Covid-19, Even After Mild Infections

New research indicates that human immune system cells are storing information about the coronavirus so they can fight it off again.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/16/health/coronavirus-immunity-antibodies.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/16/health/coronavirus-immunity-antibodies.html)



Quote
Antibodies also come with an expiration date: Because they are inanimate proteins and not living cells, they can’t replenish themselves, and so disappear from the blood just weeks or months after they are produced. Hordes of antibodies appear shortly after a virus has breached the body’s barriers, then wane as the threat dissipates. Most of the B cells that produce these early antibodies die off as well.

But even when not under siege, the body retains a battalion of longer-lived B cells that can churn out virus-fighting antibodies en masse, should they prove useful again. Some patrol the bloodstream, waiting to be triggered anew; others retreat into the bone marrow, generating small amounts of antibodies that are detectable years, sometimes decades, after an infection is over. Several (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.21.20159178v1.full.pdf) studies (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7386524/), including those led by Dr. Bhattacharya and Dr. Pepper, have found antibodies capable of incapacitating the coronavirus lingering at low levels in the blood months after people have recovered from Covid-19.

“The antibodies decline, but they settle in what looks like a stable nadir,” which is observable about three months after symptoms start, Dr. Bhattacharya said. “The response looks perfectly durable.”

Seeing antibodies this long after infection is a strong indication that B cells are still chugging away in the bone marrow, Dr. Pepper said. She and her team were also able to pluck B cells that recognize the coronavirus from the blood of people who have recovered from mild cases of Covid-19 and grow them in the lab.
Multiple studies, including one published on Friday in the journal Cell (https://www.cell.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0092-8674(20)31008-4), have also managed to isolate coronavirus-attacking T cells from the blood of recovered individuals — long after symptoms have disappeared. When provoked with bits of the coronavirus in the lab (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.11.20171843v2), these T cells pumped out virus-fighting signals, and cloned themselves into fresh armies ready to confront a familiar foe. Some reports have noted that analyses of T cells could give researchers a glimpse into the immune response to the coronavirus, even in patients whose antibody levels have declined to a point where they are difficult to detect.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 19, 2020, 03:06:02 PM
^^^^^^^^

That's some good news.

But the really interesting thing I learned from that article, is that there is a real, actual "Dr. Pepper."

Who knew????
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 19, 2020, 03:06:41 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 19, 2020, 02:58:41 PM
Scientists See Signs of Lasting Immunity to Covid-19, Even After Mild Infections

New research indicates that human immune system cells are storing information about the coronavirus so they can fight it off again.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/16/health/coronavirus-immunity-antibodies.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/16/health/coronavirus-immunity-antibodies.html)




I saw that one on Sunday. I thought I liked to it - maybe not. It's encouraging.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on August 20, 2020, 01:20:56 AM
I received a very sad story from a guy with a small business with whom I am acquainted, a few hours ago, locally here in rural NE Iowa. One of his employees gave notice in July of his intent to retire the end of August. The employee is 65.
The employee died of COVID-19 August 19, 2020.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 20, 2020, 07:46:25 AM
Dr. Fauci has some bad news for recovered coronavirus patients
By Yoni Heisler (https://bgr.com/author/yoni-heisler/) @edibleapple (https://twitter.com/edibleapple)
August 19th, 2020 at 2:42 PM
One of the scariest things about the coronavirus is that there’s still a lot we don’t know about how the virus impacts victims in the longterm. And because the coronavirus can sometimes attack a victim’s organs, it’s entirely possible that a coronavirus infection might wreak havoc on a person’s body in unforeseen ways years down the line. We’re already starting to see this scenario play out amongst a small percentage of coronavirus patients who, even months after recovery, still experience lingering symptoms (https://bgr.com/2020/08/06/coronavirus-symptoms-return-weeks-later-fatigue-pain-concentration/) like fatigue and body aches.
The long term impact of the coronavirus has become more of an issue in recent weeks now that schools are opening back up. While people who advocate schools opening back up tend to argue that kids and teenagers typically don’t experience severe coronavirus symptoms, it remains unclear what type of problems, if any, a positive diagnosis might cause later on.
Touching on this issue, Dr. Anthony Fauci earlier this week warned that it’s naive and dangerous to think that a coronavirus diagnosis isn’t a big deal if it doesn’t involve hospitalization.
“We’d better be careful when we say ‘Young people who don’t wind up in the hospital are fine, let them get infected, it’s OK.’ No, it’s not OK,” Fauci explained during a briefing earlier this week.
“In individuals who are young and otherwise healthy,” Fauci added, “who don’t require hospitalization but do get sick and symptomatic enough to be in bed for a week or two or three and then get better, they clear the virus – they have residual symptoms for weeks and sometimes months.”
Fauci, in remarks picked up by CNN (https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-08-17-20-intl/h_baa29cda8c9997e1d0c2252394eaa595), specifically categorized the situation as “troublesome” while adding that otherwise recovered COVID-19 patients “have a substantially high proportion of cardiovascular abnormalities, evidence of myocarditis by MRI and PET scans, and evidence of emerging cardiomyopathies.”
Some doctors who treat coronavirus patients have also observed a number of other ailments (https://bgr.com/2020/08/06/coronavirus-symptoms-return-weeks-later-fatigue-pain-concentration/) that keep recurring in otherwise recovered patients, including fatigue, trouble breathing and reduced lung capacity, general aches and pains, and even cognition issues in some cases.
Compounding matters is the fact that the coronavirus pandemic has only been around for a few months, which is to say that we still don’t know if COVID-19 symptoms linger on for months before subsiding or if they persist for years.
“I’ll guarantee you if we have this conversation again six months to a year from now, we’ll be reviewing the literature about talking about the long-term deleterious effects of non-hospitalized patients,” Fauci added
A life long Mac user and Apple enthusiast, Yoni Heisler has been writing about Apple and the tech industry at large for over 6 years. His writing has appeared in Edible Apple, Network World, MacLife, Macworld UK, and most recently, TUAW. When not writing about and analyzing the latest happenings with Apple, Yoni enjoys catching Improv shows in Chicago, playing soccer, and cultivating new TV show addictions, the most recent examples being The Walking Dead and Broad City.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2020, 09:32:17 AM
https://www.ajc.com/education/uga-reports-47-new-covid-19-cases-in-last-week/UISZMTGQBBDWZIS4P3LTICEHK4/ (https://www.ajc.com/education/uga-reports-47-new-covid-19-cases-in-last-week/UISZMTGQBBDWZIS4P3LTICEHK4/)

University officials said Wednesday they conducted nearly 800 surveillance tests to identify asymptomatic carriers during that time frame and reported three positive results for a rate of 0.38%, according to its website.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 20, 2020, 09:54:30 AM
what is a surveillance test

never heard of it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2020, 10:02:26 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 20, 2020, 09:54:30 AM
what is a surveillance test

never heard of it
It's a test of a representative sample of some population, not a test of people with symptoms or whatever.  We need that sort of data badly, I think.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 20, 2020, 10:30:00 AM
if said data is used wisely and logically

I have my doubts
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 20, 2020, 02:52:39 PM
https://www.jconline.com/story/news/2020/08/20/purdue-suspends-students-first-night-after-mitch-daniels-new-rule-off-campus-parties/5617496002/ (https://www.jconline.com/story/news/2020/08/20/purdue-suspends-students-first-night-after-mitch-daniels-new-rule-off-campus-parties/5617496002/)

Mitch ain't effing around!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2020, 02:58:24 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 20, 2020, 02:52:39 PM
https://www.jconline.com/story/news/2020/08/20/purdue-suspends-students-first-night-after-mitch-daniels-new-rule-off-campus-parties/5617496002/ (https://www.jconline.com/story/news/2020/08/20/purdue-suspends-students-first-night-after-mitch-daniels-new-rule-off-campus-parties/5617496002/)

Mitch ain't effing around!
UT stated a similar rule about a month ago, for the time when students are back on campus.  At the time I thought, "yeah good luck with enforcing that" but I suppose it's possible, if it's isolated enough.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 20, 2020, 03:08:11 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 20, 2020, 02:58:24 PM
UT stated a similar rule about a month ago, for the time when students are back on campus.  At the time I thought, "yeah good luck with enforcing that" but I suppose it's possible, if it's isolated enough.
I think it's like the first day in prison -- kick one fraternity/coop's ass on the first day, to prove you mean business. 

Inside scoop is apparently "suspends" means "expelled" in this case. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 20, 2020, 03:41:18 PM
while I understand the rule, Im not sure its legal
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 20, 2020, 06:02:13 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 18, 2020, 01:00:30 PM
Supposedly it is enforced, but I'm not sure how. There are cameras at the toll booths near the border, and property ownership is public record.

Maybe that's how. But, I think it's just a way for the mayor to say she's "doing" something.
These efforts always struck me as a way of making problems a sort of "other." It happened in Florida with those road stops and in a few other states. 

Maybe there's some nominal effect. But it always felt like a way to pump up regionalism in a way that made people say "It's not MY fault." I live in a state that wasn't hit hard early, and all sorts of folks were saying, "The only cases are because of New Yorkers driving through." And now getting to a 12 percent positive test rate is a good day. Granted, huge parts of this thing have been adorned with "well it's not happening HERE, so that means we shouldn't have to change things," even though that singular snapshot moment isn't that meaningful.

It kind of reminds me of when Madison Halloweens got all sorts of out of control. And folks would say "That's not Madison people, it's Minnesotans and kids from the other UWs." And in truth, it was probably a mix, with more than enough locals involved. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2020, 07:35:05 PM
GA 7 day avg of new cases reported has dropped from 3800 to 2800 in two weeks, and shows a clear downtrend now.

This is good news relatively, though 2800 is still a high figure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 20, 2020, 07:59:52 PM
nationally new cases are dropping big time

I realize its still too high but at least its going in the right direction
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 20, 2020, 08:35:45 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 20, 2020, 03:41:18 PM
while I understand the rule, Im not sure its legal
OU kicked off the local chapter of the Sigma Alpha Epsilon fraternity 3 or 4 years ago because there emerged a video of some of their members singing a racist song--not "The Eyes of Texas," I'll have you know--on a party bus headed to or from a party.
I don't imagine that was a violation of the law.  Just common sense and decency.  And university rules.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 20, 2020, 09:10:30 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 20, 2020, 08:35:45 PM
OU kicked off the local chapter of the Sigma Alpha Epsilon fraternity 3 or 4 years ago because there emerged a video of some of their members singing a racist song--not "The Eyes of Texas," I'll have you know--on a party bus headed to or from a party.
I don't imagine that was a violation of the law.  Just common sense and decency.  And university rules.
I remember that
I think they banned the frat from the University but I dont think they kicked the kids out of school
I may be wrong on this but thats what I remember
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2020, 09:28:49 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 20, 2020, 08:35:45 PM
OU kicked off the local chapter of the Sigma Alpha Epsilon fraternity 3 or 4 years ago because there emerged a video of some of their members singing a racist song--not "The Eyes of Texas," I'll have you know--on a party bus headed to or from a party.
I don't imagine that was a violation of the law.  Just common sense and decency.  And university rules.
Really?  It wasn't The Eyes?  Thanks for letting us know.

It was actually THIS little gem, sung by douchebag OU fraternity members and their dates,  to the tune of "If You're Happy And You Know It"

It went like this:

"There will never be a nigg*r at SAE
There will never be a a nigg*r at SAE
You can hang them from a tree
But they'll never sign with me
There will never be a nigg*r at SAE"

So you know, thanks for elucidating, because that is really just absolutely reminiscent of The Eyes of Texas so we appreciate the clarification.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 20, 2020, 09:36:00 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 20, 2020, 09:28:49 PM
Really?  It wasn't The Eyes?  Thanks for letting us know.

It was actually THIS little gem, sung by douchebag OU fraternity members and their dates,  to the tune of "If You're Happy And You Know It"

It went like this:

"There will never be a nigg*r at SAE
There will never be a a nigg*r at SAE
You can hang them from a tree
But they'll never sign with me
There will never be a nigg*r at SAE"

So you know, thanks for the clarification, because that is really just absolutely reminiscent of The Eyes of Texas so we appreciate the clarification.

LOL
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on August 20, 2020, 10:18:14 PM
https://www.startribune.com/17-students-at-st-olaf-college-suspended-over-mask-free-party/572176722/

17 suspended and 50 more in quarantine down in Northfield. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 20, 2020, 10:36:20 PM
St Olaf that bastion of counter revolutionary provocatuers
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 20, 2020, 11:42:30 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 20, 2020, 09:28:49 PM
Really?  It wasn't The Eyes?  Thanks for letting us know.

It was actually THIS little gem, sung by douchebag OU fraternity members and their dates,  to the tune of "If You're Happy And You Know It"

It went like this:

"There will never be a nigg*r at SAE
There will never be a a nigg*r at SAE
You can hang them from a tree
But they'll never sign with me
There will never be a nigg*r at SAE"

So you know, thanks for elucidating, because that is really just absolutely reminiscent of The Eyes of Texas so we appreciate the clarification.
I've said elsewhere that I don't think that "The Eyes" is a racist song.
Grow a sense of humor.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 20, 2020, 11:55:43 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 20, 2020, 11:42:30 PM
I've said elsewhere that I don't think that "The Eyes" is a racist song.
Grow a sense of humor.
Relax CW I dont think you realized it but it looked kinda funny when you felt the need to make sure the reader knew that a bunch of sooner frat students were not singing the Eyes of Texas

I know you didnt mean it the way it looked Kumbaya

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 21, 2020, 12:04:24 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 20, 2020, 11:42:30 PM
I've said elsewhere that I don't think that "The Eyes" is a racist song.
Grow a sense of humor.
Lulz.

Your passive-aggression is showing.  Same as it ever was.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on August 21, 2020, 01:21:54 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 20, 2020, 07:35:05 PM
GA 7 day avg of new cases reported has dropped from 3800 to 2800 in two weeks, and shows a clear downtrend now.

This is good news relatively, though 2800 is still a high figure.
2,800 is very high, but the trend is good. What do you attribute the trend to? There must have been a change in behavior. Is there an observable change?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2020, 07:55:15 AM
Pfizer (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=PFE) (PFE), BioNTech (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=BNTX) (BNTX) – Pfizer and partner BioNTech said regulatory review for their Covid-19 vaccine candidate could come as early as October. The drugmakers say their ongoing studies are showing promising safety and immune response data.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2020, 07:57:31 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on August 21, 2020, 01:21:54 AM
2,800 is very high, but the trend is good. What do you attribute the trend to? There must have been a change in behavior. Is there an observable change?
No changes around where we live at all, but folks are pretty good at wearing masks.  I see two possibilities:

1.  The news scared people back into their homes, and
2.  Some of us have some preexisting resistance to this.

Sweden is the same story, in effect, with differences.  The rise in hospitalizations was nearing max and has started down, which is good news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 21, 2020, 02:26:17 PM
S&P 500 set to close at another record as shares of Apple rise, Dow up 150 points
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2020, 02:31:13 PM
I am seriously over weight on Apple now.  I mulled selling some this morning and didn't fortunately.  I think I'm going to put in stop loss orders at $450.

12% of my IRA is Apple stock.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 21, 2020, 02:39:27 PM
got more than 3% of anything else?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2020, 04:08:07 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 21, 2020, 02:39:27 PM
got more than 3% of anything else?
Yes, but they are all ETFs and Costco, and cash, I'm 40% in cash equivalents.  I'm not a stock picker but I fell into Apple, I bought the first round at $95.  I also have some "laggards" obviously.  I took a hit on Crackerbarrel.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 21, 2020, 04:34:26 PM
I stocked up on some travel stocks back in March. Doing pretty OK on that front, and probably do really well when this damn thing goes away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 21, 2020, 09:04:01 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 21, 2020, 12:04:24 AM
Lulz.

Your passive-aggression is showing.  Same as it ever was.
So you're a psychiatrist?
I thought all this time that you were an electrical engineer.
Learn something new every day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 21, 2020, 09:08:27 PM
From The Dispatch:
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2912%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F857a1edd-ce17-4ddb-937d-4cf4bef59483_1600x520.png&t=1598055644&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1cae-d9006f01ba00&sig=ZP7CFJEXyPP7.auPbBjlhA--~D) (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUsuOpSAQ_ZrLTgMIF1y46Ewyv2EKKLmkFWzA6bn99YO6moQUJ_U6RR0sVPQpv6c9lUqOgnkObhJ8HBRTpCHHtNQklHnJiBuEdar5QLIfZg0WakjxLOBSspG8pueTIig3aPU0VDkhBgVUjYiAyBcN5KSZ4XABo8UpxfV9NSbr9Kp1L4_h48F_t2Nd7MthSgX72du0NVfYwGO7F6z2dabMa9hCffBfS-tYUwNfNxg-fEruDKzznpPPWEr4g81fKuLeam8yLk86eRI2Yw77iS2eO6TSGKtFZwCGrr0Bu1Ey3YEzAzeo1KhFX4YeNvhJEb7LPWHrca_lgte45YJaKmDoXGeRqU44Z7q2X9cJuwiDixyFHmb2pPSv5LTfoydh4pRTqjljVApJe9bj1-uHOgXRuYegm-f_7YfkKbdQb3LwvrSEYqxfk4G1j1hPueaWtR0x1PeMEcyK7lay3tJfwtT3jlPE77JirZhvZ5NXK82VII3QpfYH4rSlHEP0LpQdmhr_ANkVwP8)
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2912%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F5474b6f1-524b-469a-a13d-1323b0bcf026_1600x502.png&t=1598055644&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1cae-d9006f01ba00&sig=fPtVjns326hvjfI0vLGcjw--~D) (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUsuO3CAQ_JrhZovnYB98WEXKb1gNtBm0NngBZzP79cH2KRKCUj-qWl1YqOhTfk97KpUcBfMc3CT5KDTTpCHHBjWQUOYlI24Q1qnmA8l-mDVYqCHFs4ErxUbympQYwGiQKBdhmGFUUQl0BKsXx8EO5JSZ4XABo8UpxfV9EZN1etW6l4f4ePDf7VgX-3KYUsF-9jZtLRQ28NjeBat9nSXzGrZQH_zX0hhrauDrBuLDp-TOxDrvOfmMpYQ_2OKlIu6t9xbj6pRTp2C7zGE_seVzh1QZYwfZGQDRSaGxGxUbOnBGcINaj4Psi-hhg58U4bvcEzaOey0XvMYtF1RSS_NcWKe4NJ18jtABE65jggtDjV0of87sSelfRXm_R0_CxCmndOCsrVAq2rMev14_1GmIzj0k3Tz_bz8kT7mlepOD96UVFGP9mgysfcR62jW3qu2Iob5njGBWdLeT9bb-Mqa-d5wifpcVa8V8B5u9gx64lqQJutT-QJy2lGOI3oWyQ3PjHxZMv_k)

I suspect that with schools going back into session, even with masks and social distancing encouraged/enforced, we will see a bump in cases.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 21, 2020, 09:46:05 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 21, 2020, 09:08:27 PM
From The Dispatch:
  • The United States confirmed (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUEtuxSAMPE1YIiBJw1uw6OZdIyLgJrT8CqZVevqSF8kLazz2eMZohD2VU-VUkbQKZXVWTeIxLnwhvbNczpK4un4UgKCdV1gakNw274xGl-K1IOaZP8ihFskYs4IB1yAM52_jxKGDcpJ2NiDJJbPqZh1EAypFf74OE68OxFyH8X0Qz14mlRT1jyut0s-jUbCto0FnemDwxCnBBGNScM7maWaUU_g-_phddLR2mFjYBa1tq6jNFzUpkKJKH9GtuH2vnVA3s_u0aU8j4GVn7azQosNzhag3D_Z2inc0r8fxzKAi_FYPiFBusNuXixTLRLqgTT2jqEIq0cXdupo1muMfuxl7bg) 48,266 new cases of COVID-19 yesterday, with 7.3 percent of the 661,228 tests reported coming back positive. An additional 1,278 deaths were attributed to the virus on Thursday, bringing the pandemic’s American death toll to 174,248.
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2912%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F857a1edd-ce17-4ddb-937d-4cf4bef59483_1600x520.png&t=1598055644&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1cae-d9006f01ba00&sig=ZP7CFJEXyPP7.auPbBjlhA--~D) (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUsuOpSAQ_ZrLTgMIF1y46Ewyv2EKKLmkFWzA6bn99YO6moQUJ_U6RR0sVPQpv6c9lUqOgnkObhJ8HBRTpCHHtNQklHnJiBuEdar5QLIfZg0WakjxLOBSspG8pueTIig3aPU0VDkhBgVUjYiAyBcN5KSZ4XABo8UpxfV9NSbr9Kp1L4_h48F_t2Nd7MthSgX72du0NVfYwGO7F6z2dabMa9hCffBfS-tYUwNfNxg-fEruDKzznpPPWEr4g81fKuLeam8yLk86eRI2Yw77iS2eO6TSGKtFZwCGrr0Bu1Ey3YEzAzeo1KhFX4YeNvhJEb7LPWHrca_lgte45YJaKmDoXGeRqU44Z7q2X9cJuwiDixyFHmb2pPSv5LTfoydh4pRTqjljVApJe9bj1-uHOgXRuYegm-f_7YfkKbdQb3LwvrSEYqxfk4G1j1hPueaWtR0x1PeMEcyK7lay3tJfwtT3jlPE77JirZhvZ5NXK82VII3QpfYH4rSlHEP0LpQdmhr_ANkVwP8)
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.substack.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Fw_2912%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F5474b6f1-524b-469a-a13d-1323b0bcf026_1600x502.png&t=1598055644&ymreqid=ce21eeb2-1d00-3a0a-1cae-d9006f01ba00&sig=fPtVjns326hvjfI0vLGcjw--~D) (https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUsuO3CAQ_JrhZovnYB98WEXKb1gNtBm0NngBZzP79cH2KRKCUj-qWl1YqOhTfk97KpUcBfMc3CT5KDTTpCHHBjWQUOYlI24Q1qnmA8l-mDVYqCHFs4ErxUbympQYwGiQKBdhmGFUUQl0BKsXx8EO5JSZ4XABo8UpxfV9EZN1etW6l4f4ePDf7VgX-3KYUsF-9jZtLRQ28NjeBat9nSXzGrZQH_zX0hhrauDrBuLDp-TOxDrvOfmMpYQ_2OKlIu6t9xbj6pRTp2C7zGE_seVzh1QZYwfZGQDRSaGxGxUbOnBGcINaj4Psi-hhg58U4bvcEzaOey0XvMYtF1RSS_NcWKe4NJ18jtABE65jggtDjV0of87sSelfRXm_R0_CxCmndOCsrVAq2rMev14_1GmIzj0k3Tz_bz8kT7mlepOD96UVFGP9mgysfcR62jW3qu2Iob5njGBWdLeT9bb-Mqa-d5wifpcVa8V8B5u9gx64lqQJutT-QJy2lGOI3oWyQ3PjHxZMv_k)

I suspect that with schools going back into session, even with masks and social distancing encouraged/enforced, we will see a bump in cases.


Hasnt happened yet but its early
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 22, 2020, 11:46:29 PM
9-year-old Middletown girl dies after contracting COVID, brain inflammation
Segann March (https://www.cincinnati.com/staff/4395347002/segann-march/)
Cincinnati Enquirer

(https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2020/08/12/PCIN/e1e87a80-ed14-47b0-88d2-88e745a1a993-117714296_10157166714176852_1257819897914859116_o.jpg?width=300&height=400&fit=crop&format=pjpg&auto=webp)

A 9-year-old Middletown girl who fought brain inflammation, COVID-19, and body paralysis for nearly three months died Wednesday, according to the family's online fundraiser.  (https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-for-dorielis-ayuda-para-dorielis?utm_source=customer&utm_campaign=p_cp+share-sheet&utm_medium=copy_link)
Dorielis Reyes-Paula, a fourth-grade student, was diagnosed with COVID-19 on May 10 after her mother Doranny Escolastico noticed her walking strangely and dragging one foot. Doctors found brain inflammation during an MRI scan. 
She was sent home with medication and returned to the hospital on July 19 after suffering from severe headaches and having an epileptic seizure. She also lost her ability to walk.   
Dorielis continued to get sicker while doctors at the Cincinnati Children's Hospital tried to figure out what was causing the brain inflammation, speech impairment, and paralysis. 
During her stay at the hospital, she endured several biopsies, MRIs, blood tests, and treatments. At one point, the doctors tested her blood to see if cancer was causing the illness. 
(https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2020/08/12/PCIN/f3678930-0940-4750-9276-1c3957877ce8-117641271_10157166714541852_7318882112345922894_o.jpg?width=300&height=400&fit=crop&format=pjpg&auto=webp)

Escolastico said her oxygen levels constantly fluctuated.
Middletown City Schools announced the student's passing in a Facebook post on Thursday. Dorielis was a student at Wildwood Elementary School. 
"While we wish the outcome was different, Dorielis passed away yesterday," the Facebook post (https://www.facebook.com/MiddletownCitySchools/) read. "While the family grieves, we take comfort that our community rallied around them, lifted them up, and gave help with the medical bills. We hope the family finds peace."
In an email to families, Superintendent Marlon Styles, Jr., said: "Dorielis was so full of life" and relied on faith. 
"On the playground, she picked dandelion flowers for teachers and you often found her having conversations with the staff," the email stated. "A lover of books, Dorielis was always sneaking in extra reading time during classes, even during math."
Escolastico, a single mother of four, started a GoFundMe fundraiser to help cover bills and purchase household items for her other children. To date, the account has raised more than $19,000. The goal was $15,000. 
If your children would like to speak with a counselor, contact Wildwood Elementary at 513-420-4564.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 23, 2020, 08:18:02 AM
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

New cases subsiding in US.  Possible causes:

1.  Fewer tests being run.
2.  More care being taken to distance and wear masks by individuals.
3.  Shutdowns in some states.
4.  Some level of latent resistance in some percentage of the adult population.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 23, 2020, 08:37:14 AM
combination of all of the above
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 23, 2020, 09:07:54 AM
Are tests down?

I hadnt heard that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 23, 2020, 09:34:36 AM
Testing is down in some places, but up in others. Not sure what the national numbers are.

As more of us have been exposed, cases will go down. Testing will go down as symptoms go down.

I have to get tested in a couple of weeks, prior to having a procedure. I'll be happy to contribute to the negative result counts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 23, 2020, 09:55:38 AM
the Iowa Governor has been tested 10 times

all negative

I haven't had a reason to be tested yet
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 23, 2020, 10:09:06 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 23, 2020, 09:07:54 AM
Are tests down?

I hadnt heard that
They apparent are in Florida, which "some" claim is the governor attempted to massage the figures for tourism reasons.

It could also be that folks are just not wanting to get tested.  If the test is the one I had, I would not do it again except if it was very necessary for something serious.

Even the wife said it was bad.  She warned me, I didn't know they did both nostrils.  I had to sit in the car a couple minutes before I could see to drive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 23, 2020, 10:19:13 AM
Made my eyes water something fierce, no doubt.

Hospitalizations and ICU use trending steadily down in Texico since a peak about a month ago, good news.  Some school districts are back in-person, although most of the major metro area school districts are online-only until 9/8 at the very earliest.  So I'm not sure we'll get much change in data as a result of school going back in session in August.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 23, 2020, 10:32:56 AM
Orange County should be going off Newsom's "watch list" today. 14 days off that and schools can reopen in person. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 23, 2020, 12:19:13 PM
if you don't get test results back sooner than 10 days, it's not much use

just quarantine and forget the test
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 23, 2020, 02:01:42 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 23, 2020, 12:19:13 PM
if you don't get test results back sooner than 10 days, it's not much use

just quarantine and forget the test
If I was symptomatic I'd get tested. 

And I'd get the horrible nose swab. I don't trust the throat swab. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 23, 2020, 05:00:06 PM
My problem with the nose swab as that I thought I was done after the first one, and then she wanted to poke the second nostril.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 23, 2020, 09:31:10 PM
well, ya can't say no after one
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 24, 2020, 08:34:28 AM
We walked around a good bit the past two days and both of us noted that masks are becoming rare, or at least uncommon, around here, versus a month ago.

I also noted the restaurant next door has tables in a covered patio area that are in the same place they were pre-C, crowded, and the place was packed, with folks standing outside in a group of 15 or so waiting to get seated.  It's nice they have business, but it's business as usual, and they even put four tables outside where they used to have valet parking that are full.

Some folks ran or walked right by us making no effort to distance even if there was room.  The wife yelled at two folks, I told her to ease up.

So, the guidelines around here are being widely ignored.  And the care numbers continue to drop.  Sunday often is a low day so I don't know if that figure is reliable.  The peak around a month ago had the 7 day average over 3,700 per day new cases and now it's 2,417, yesterday 1,717.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 24, 2020, 08:48:55 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 24, 2020, 08:34:28 AM
We walked around a good bit the past two days and both of us noted that masks are becoming rare, or at least uncommon, around here, versus a month ago.

I also noted the restaurant next door has tables in a covered patio area that are in the same place they were pre-C, crowded, and the place was packed, with folks standing outside in a group of 15 or so waiting to get seated.  It's nice they have business, but it's business as usual, and they even put four tables outside where they used to have valet parking that are full.

Some folks ran or walked right by us making no effort to distance even if there was room.  The wife yelled at two folks, I told her to ease up.

So, the guidelines around here are being widely ignored.  And the care numbers continue to drop.  Sunday often is a low day so I don't know if that figure is reliable.  The peak around a month ago had the 7 day average over 3,700 per day new cases and now it's 2,417, yesterday 1,717.


looks like something is working
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on August 24, 2020, 08:53:25 AM
The numbers look pretty good pretty much everywhere.  I think the question is whether a second wave comes and what that looks like (and when).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 24, 2020, 09:23:53 AM
I see little evidence to suggest any "second wave" phenomenon.  This virus is not seasonal, apparently.  It is possible that our winter habits could enable more contagion, but that is not a given.

We could struggle to differentiate between a cold, the flu, and Corona come winter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on August 24, 2020, 09:53:36 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 24, 2020, 09:23:53 AM
I see little evidence to suggest any "second wave" phenomenon.  This virus is not seasonal, apparently.  It is possible that our winter habits could enable more contagion, but that is not a given.

We could struggle to differentiate between a cold, the flu, and Corona come winter.
A good follow on this stuff


https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1294192494423482368?s=20

Anyway, to make it short, the reason so many expect it to be seasonal is because coronaviruses and respiratory illnesses (colds and flus) are pretty much all seasonal, and COVID 19 is a respiratory illness and coronavirus.  There hasn't been much evidence to suggest it would act differently than others (though it would be nice if it would!)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 24, 2020, 11:39:00 AM
I don't see any evidence to do more than suggest it's seasonal.  It may be, it may not be.  It didn't seem to die back in summer, as flu and colds are wont to do.

When it hit, Australia and Brazil were in March, equivalent to our September.  I don't see much evidence for seasonality based on their experience to date.  When it hits, it hits, it seems, area under the curve.

I personally would consider not an upsurge in the winter as a second wave, it would just be a seasonal increase, if it occurs.  

The 1918 flu had a distinct and obvious second, and third wave clearly evident.  And yes, this could be seasonal, as noted.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on August 24, 2020, 01:04:33 PM
Certainly, Australia has had more deaths during their winter than during their summer.  Brazil, too.  Melbourne currently in their seventh week of re-lockdown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 24, 2020, 01:20:32 PM
The rise down there paralleled the rise in the US and other places in the summer.  Once it hits, it fits.

You can shut down and delay the rate, some, but area under the curve looks to end up in the same place over time, the mask wearing appears to be a powerful variable in that.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 24, 2020, 01:25:47 PM
Brazil looks to have peaked and may be ebbing a bit.  Australia had a peak in March and then abeyance until first of July and then another surge, now declining.  The abeyance was coincident with a shut down.  Peak was early August, which is akin to our January.

I'm sure the confounding variable is country specific actions to control the thing.

So, I think we could see a surge in November, or not, we all hope not, it's possible, but I don't see clear evidence yet of seasonality (or lack thereof).



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 24, 2020, 01:35:59 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 24, 2020, 09:23:53 AM
We could struggle to differentiate between a cold, the flu, and Corona come winter.
This! in the last 2 weeks an old friend passed away he had double pneumonia.Back in 2008 he had blood clots on his lungs removed.And was in ICU for a week at the time.Unfortunately my friend was a little stubborn and didn't take the Meds prescribed and put off the Hospital visit and the situation deteriorated.His son drove back from N.Jersey and took him in and he rebounded then passed.The wake & mass was Friday.Not sure about COVID or not

  I get back from a walleye frye on saturday and Cindy finds out her best friend was in the ICU on the other side of town with double pnuemonia.She was in 2 1/2 weeks and was released saturday.No covid though - just don't know sometimes
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 24, 2020, 03:26:02 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/2cPvuAW.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 24, 2020, 03:37:00 PM
Imagine it's December and you feel a sore throat coming on, usually the harbinger of a cold.  But wait, maybe it's COVID?  Or Flu?  Or dreaded lurgy?  Or sickness caused by lack of football?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 24, 2020, 03:39:30 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 24, 2020, 03:37:00 PM
Imagine it's December and you feel a sore throat coming on, usually the harbinger of a cold.  But wait, maybe it's COVID?  Or Flu?  Or dreaded lurgy?  Or sickness caused by lack of football?


Ive already done that at least 5 times 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 24, 2020, 03:49:23 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 24, 2020, 03:37:00 PM
Imagine it's December and you feel a sore throat coming on, usually the harbinger of a cold.  But wait, maybe it's COVID?  Or Flu?  Or dreaded lurgy?  Or sickness caused by lack of football?


Great Siberian Itch, Mad Cow's or the screaming cheetah wheelies
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 25, 2020, 11:19:55 AM
GA still ebbing across the board fortunately, casual observation suggests mask wearing is diminishing as well.

It's raining today at least.

The shoulder is still sore and a bit stiff but pretty OK.  See the doc tomorrow, stitches out, start PT, looks good.

I found some youtube videos of the surgery.  It's fairly brutal and vigorous apparently, something like putting lift on your Jeep.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 25, 2020, 11:42:24 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 24, 2020, 03:37:00 PM
Imagine it's December and you feel a sore throat coming on, usually the harbinger of a cold.  But wait, maybe it's COVID?  Or Flu?  Or dreaded lurgy?  Or sickness caused by lack of football?


On the plus side, a boatload more people will get tested and the positive rate will drop like a rock.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 25, 2020, 11:42:32 AM
State hit hard early stayed pretty down, and states hit hard later are declining, all well before we'd have any herd immunity based on this cycle of infections.

Maybe it's better hygiene, etc., and maybe it's latent resistance.

(https://i.imgur.com/a1e9b1N.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 25, 2020, 11:51:37 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 25, 2020, 11:19:55 AM
I found some youtube videos of the surgery.  It's fairly brutal and vigorous apparently, something like putting lift on your Jeep.
Yeah, but at least with the Jeep, if I figure out I need a different tool or part that I didn't anticipate, I can hold off for a day or two (or the next weekend) waiting for it to show up ;-) 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 25, 2020, 01:09:25 PM
Anyone who has worked under a car knows that pieces often seize and can take a good hammering to get them out.

I guess arthopods who work on joints do the same thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 25, 2020, 03:00:58 PM
Months into the COVID-19 pandemic, wearing a mask while out in public has become the recommended practice. However, many still question the effectiveness of this.

To allay these doubts, Padmanabha Prasanna Simha, from the Indian Space Research Organisation, and Prasanna Simha Mohan Rao, from the Sri Jayadeva Institute of Cardiovascular Sciences and Research, experimentally visualized the flow fields of coughs under various common mouth covering scenarios. They present their findings in the journal Physics of Fluids.

"If a person can reduce the extent of how much they contaminate the environment by mitigating the spread, it's a far better situation for other healthy individuals who may enter places that have such contaminated areas," Simha said.

Density and temperature are intricately related, and coughs tend to be warmer than their surrounding area. Tapping into this connection, Simha and Rao utilized a technique called schlieren imaging, which visualizes changes in density, to capture pictures of voluntary coughs from five test subjects. By tracking the motion of a cough over successive images, the team estimated velocity and spread of the expelled droplets.

Unsurprisingly, they found N95 masks to be the most effective at reducing the horizontal spread of a cough. The N95 masks reduced a cough's initial velocity by up to a factor of 10 and limit its spread to between 0.1 and 0.25 meters.

An uncovered cough, in contrast, can travel up to 3 meters, but even a simple disposable mask can bring this all the way down to 0.5 meters.


https://phys.org/news/2020-08-effectiveness-masks.html (https://phys.org/news/2020-08-effectiveness-masks.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on August 26, 2020, 01:46:59 AM
Just came across an article in the Des Moines Register, Johnson County (home to the U of Iowa) has positivity rate of > 30% of tests administered for the 3rd day in a row, 4th day in a row over 20%. The governor's benchmark is for school districts to offer at least 50% in-person unless a school district is in a county with > 15% positivity rate over 14-days and at least 10% of students absent.
Students have returned to the U of Iowa. I am sure their close proximity to each other is contributing.
I am not an epidemiologist. Given the virulence of this virus, I am curious how these standards are established. If you must wait and wait until the outbreak is uncontrollable, is this standard uncontrollable? Is this standard one that is for public health, or other reasons? Is it the right standard?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 26, 2020, 07:07:38 AM
We probably don't know what the right standard for much of anything is.  Test positive rates are impacted by things out of one's control at times, like how many choose to get tested.  We have a test site here at the airport that can handle 5,000 tests per day, and they routinely test well under a thousand.

The test I had is not something I would like to endure again.

GA is still dropping on every metric.  Maybe it's mask wearing, I'm leaning to thinking not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 26, 2020, 08:23:52 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 25, 2020, 01:09:25 PM
I guess arthopods who work on joints do the same thing.
Huh?What do crustaceans have to do with surgery/PT?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 26, 2020, 08:52:17 AM
Orthopedists are sometimes referred to as arthropods.

The utube surgery involved a lot of rather aggressive poking and pulling and inserting etc.  They don't mess around.  If the probe resists going in through the incision, they gorilla it.  Well, they gorilla it at the start, probe is going in, period.

I have six "holes", I think I counted right, two very close together on the bicep which initially was painful.  I had a nerve block that was a bit weird.  I'm getting stitches out this morning, shortly, and the wife is going for PT, same building, about 6 blocks from here.  I don't see any evidence for infection anywhere, which is good, they didn't give me amoxicillin either.  I chatted with the PT lady, she said I'd be on PT after they take out the threads, and to take an ibu before coming.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 26, 2020, 10:06:53 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 26, 2020, 07:07:38 AM
We probably don't know what the right standard for much of anything is.  Test positive rates are impacted by things out of one's control at times, like how many choose to get tested.  We have a test site here at the airport that can handle 5,000 tests per day, and they routinely test well under a thousand.

The test I had is not something I would like to endure again.

GA is still dropping on every metric.  Maybe it's mask wearing, I'm leaning to thinking not.
Are indoor bars open?  Indoor restaurants at >50% capacity?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 26, 2020, 12:26:16 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 26, 2020, 10:06:53 AM
Are indoor bars open?  Indoor restaurants at >50% capacity?


We don't really have pure bars here.  There are restaurants that are pub-like that serve food.  The one next door was at half capacity for a while, but I noticed they are full up now, and crowded, the tables are back where they were.  I did not look inside, but they have booths inside.  The places we do dine have about 50% capacity inside, and it's hurting them on weekends in particular financially.  

We have reservations at Lure tonight, I requested outdoor dining if possible.  We dined there a week or so back and ate at the bar, we walked in and they were full, the tables are spread out.

Gyms and beauty salons are open with the usual restrictions.  The wife's church is reservation only and less than half capacity.  It's a large church (not mega) and I think they added some additional Masses.  They have one in Spanish on Saturdays.  No communion.

We were just at Costco, masks required, and used by everyone I saw.  Plexiglas etc.  

But, none of this is new, it was like this 2 months ago.  In fact, my impression from walking around town here is that mask wearing has become less frequent.

I was just at the doctor's to get stitches removed.  I was the only patient I saw there the entire time.  The seating area normally would accommodate 20 or so people waiting, it's a largish office.  They have their own X-ray, and MRI is next door.  



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 26, 2020, 12:26:44 PM
there's a new mask ordinance in Chicago

I'm sure that will help with the bars and diners
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 26, 2020, 12:32:30 PM
I've noticed that stores have had to hire extra folks to clean shopping carts, monitor entrances, clean surfaces, etc.

The local Whole Foods where I park to see the doctor has two "guards" at both entrances.

I usually walk to the doc but today we were heading to Costco, which is about 7 miles NW of us.

Those temperature forehead readers make you forget stuff.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 26, 2020, 12:41:23 PM
doesn't seem like things are getting wiped down much here any longer

folks don't appear to be afraid of touching things as was the case in April
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 26, 2020, 01:00:33 PM
There was a fear earlier that it is transmitted by hard surfaces.  That fear has abated with more data.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 26, 2020, 01:02:51 PM
We are spending a good deal of time and materials spraying down the hard surfaces in our classrooms several times a day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 26, 2020, 01:06:11 PM
I'm seeing more evidence that there is not widespread "immunity" to COVID-19, but that there is a large group of people who have better immune system responses due to exposure to other types of coronaviruses (i.e. common cold, etc). 

One was a guy in Hong Kong (I think) which is the first confirmed reinfection. By DNA sequencing they see that he was infected with a strain that had a very slight DNA difference to his first infection. His first infection was symptomatic; his second was not. 

With that and some other reports there is a suggestion that if you have T cells and B cells that have experience with other coronavirus types that have a similar structure, that it makes your body much more able to quickly recognize and fight the infection before it spreads to the extent it would in someone who does not have that T cell or B cell "memory". And thus it can better explain the extremely wide variation in outcomes, from people who are completely asymptomatic to people who become gravely ill.

I haven't seen this final part anywhere, but this could also explain part of why it doesn't seem to hit kids hard. As we all know, kids are walking petri dishes of germs,, so perhaps the fact that their immune systems are so exposed to and used to fighting off common colds contributes to them having better outcomes from this virus?

I can say from personal history, I used to NEVER get sick. Then my eldest son went to preschool, and for 6 months I got EVERYTHING. And then I stopped getting sick. My wife works in a Dr's office, and when she first started, she was sick constantly. After a few months, that went away. But then when she met my kids and eventually moved in, she got EVERYTHING they had as well for a few months, and then it went away and now she's fine. 

I'm sure it's not that suddenly my kids became more hygienic... I think it's that our immune systems have seen so many germs that they make a quicker attack on new germs coming at us so we're still "getting" infected but it remains asymptomatic based on immune system response. If something similar happens here, perhaps that's helping to blunt the impact of this thing.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 26, 2020, 01:08:23 PM
And just to be clear, my above post is pure speculation on my part. I don't want to suggest that I've got enough evidence behind me to believe this is how it works, but I'm seeing inklings here and there that could be consistent with this. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 26, 2020, 01:10:56 PM
Your speculation makes some sense, I think, even if it's perhaps not entirely true.

"We" used to drink water from the creek with all sorts of crypto and bilharzia and whatever else in it, and not get sick.

Now we go to Mexico or France and get the runs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 26, 2020, 02:12:40 PM
It's really fun learning that the amount of virus infected, asymptomatic kids carry is far more than symptomatic adults carry.  Can't wait do deal with that.  

Maybe I should exercise real quick.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 26, 2020, 02:18:18 PM
I believe a while back someone said that by the time of the election, the ww death count was unlikely to reach 1M.



So I'm thinking that there's basically zero chance of that...

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 26, 2020, 02:23:25 PM
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)

I think if infection rates dropped to zero today, we might get pretty close to a million deaths.  As you note, they count 5 K per day, and probably 30 days is already baked in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 26, 2020, 02:33:02 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/26/moderna-says-its-coronavirus-vaccine-shows-promising-results-in-small-trial-of-elderly-patients.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/26/moderna-says-its-coronavirus-vaccine-shows-promising-results-in-small-trial-of-elderly-patients.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 26, 2020, 06:48:26 PM
We had 19 deaths in Oklahoma yesterday.  That's our highest number.

Our governor refuses to issue a mask mandate.

The Tulsa mayor issued a mask mandate about a month ago, and cases and deaths in Tulsa have been trending downward.  He is being sued by an anti-masker group.  (He was just re-elected without a runoff yesterday.)  In the suburb of Broken Arrow, there has been no such mandate.  Coincidentally, it has become a hot spot for new cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 26, 2020, 08:43:21 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 26, 2020, 01:02:51 PM
We are spending a good deal of time and materials spraying down the hard surfaces in our classrooms several times a day.
I was doing that at the office gym to the point where I just started working out with a few weights at home. I was just annoyed to spend the extra 25-30 minutes for maybe an hour workout. 

So I send you a great deal of sympathy. Godspeed. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 26, 2020, 09:28:17 PM
Thanks, BAB.

Any thoughts on whether alcohol or a detergent-based "disinfectant" is better.  We've got both.  I tend to use the alcohol, but it doesn't react well with the varnish on my wooden classroom door.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 26, 2020, 09:31:41 PM
Both should work, I think.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 26, 2020, 09:37:17 PM
Thanks!  That's good to know.

We've also got disinfecting hand wipes coming out the center of the lid of a 2-gallon plastic bucket in each room.

We got the things as kits.  Fill the bucket half full of water, add two packets of clear-blue "stuff" to it, put the huge roll of wipes down in the bucket, pull the inside wipe up through the hole in the lid, then add the lid.

Probably a lot cheaper per wipe than the regular kind you buy in a grocery store.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 26, 2020, 10:12:10 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 26, 2020, 09:37:17 PM
Thanks!  That's good to know.

We've also got disinfecting hand wipes coming out the center of the lid of a 2-gallon plastic bucket in each room.

We got the things as kits.  Fill the bucket half full of water, add two packets of clear-blue "stuff" to it, put the huge roll of wipes down in the bucket, pull the inside wipe up through the hole in the lid, then add the lid.

Probably a lot cheaper per wipe than the regular kind you buy in a grocery store.
so has school opened or will there only be online classes
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 26, 2020, 10:51:34 PM
We're having a strange opening 3 weeks.  Last week, we had half the students at school while the others stayed home.  This week, the halves flip-flpped.  Both weeks, Friday was "distance-learning."  This has been with masks mandatory for everyone except at lunch, and social-distancing there.

Next week will be distance-learning for everybody.  Then it's Labor Day weekend.  We anticipate that we will either extend distance-learning beyond Labor Day or go all in-school, again with masks mandatory.

Also, there have been about 1200 students in our district (of 6,000 students total) who have opted for full-time "virtual" school.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 26, 2020, 11:22:04 PM
We just did our initial testing online, and apparently, 80% of my class are super-geniuses.  Despite repeated written and verbal pleas to not help their kids do the test, most of them did just that.


Awesome. 


As a parent, you have the right to have as many kids as you want and raise them as poorly as you feel like. 

No, telling them the answers on a test doesn't make a parent a bad parent, but it's stupid.  It's how we show evidence of growth and now that's down the drain.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 27, 2020, 05:01:46 AM
Our grandkids in France are about to go back to school in a week or so.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on August 27, 2020, 07:56:34 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 26, 2020, 11:22:04 PM
We just did our initial testing online, and apparently, 80% of my class are super-geniuses.  Despite repeated written and verbal pleas to not help their kids do the test, most of them did just that.


Awesome. 


As a parent, you have the right to have as many kids as you want and raise them as poorly as you feel like.

No, telling them the answers on a test doesn't make a parent a bad parent, but it's stupid.  It's how we show evidence of growth and now that's down the drain. 
Heh I understand - I keep telling my wife not to worry about it - but she is stressing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 27, 2020, 08:47:25 AM
French Prime Minister Jean Castex said the government must intervene in order to contain the country’s expanding outbreak of the coronavirus, especially as the virus spreads rapidly among young people, Reuters reported.
The country’s health minister, Olivier Veran, will also begin to hold weekly news briefings to update the public on the state of the outbreak, Castex said, according to Reuters. 
The coronavirus has infected more than 291,300 people in France so far and killed at least 30,500 people, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. After bringing its initial outbreak in March and April largely under control, the country is now grappling with an acceleration of spread.  —Will Feuer


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 27, 2020, 08:48:41 AM
So, you clamp down and it recedes, you open up some and viola', it's back

I still can't explain Sweden very well.  They are very low now, no apparent resurgence.  Area under the curve?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 27, 2020, 09:42:15 AM
Sweden is down under 200 new cases per day.  Georgia is around 2,500, similar population.  How did that happen?

Are you telling me it was better compliance with individual guideline behaviors?

I doubt it.  They had 87,000 reported cases.  That is under 1% of the population.  You'd have to raise that by a factor of 50 or more to reach theoretical herd immunity.

Is actual HI nearer 1-3% of known cases?  Huh.

Georgia has 260,000 known cases (total), which is about 2.5% of the population.

Georgia is at 500 deaths per million, Sweden is at 575, somewhat worse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 27, 2020, 11:10:32 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 27, 2020, 09:42:15 AM
Sweden is down under 200 new cases per day.  Georgia is around 2,500, similar population.  How did that happen?

Are you telling me it was better compliance with individual guideline behaviors?

I doubt it.  They had 87,000 reported cases.  That is under 1% of the population.  You'd have to raise that by a factor of 50 or more to reach theoretical herd immunity.

Is actual HI nearer 1-3% of known cases?  Huh.

Georgia has 260,000 known cases (total), which is about 2.5% of the population.

Georgia is at 500 deaths per million, Sweden is at 575, somewhat worse.

I don't think you can compare cases.  Different countries, and within the US even different states, are handling that completely differently.  From the overall number of tests performed, to the types of test and their accuracy rates, to the manner of reporting, the differences just make it impossible to compare.

Out of curiosity, is there any source of info that shows the number of tests performed in each region-- Georgia and Sweden-- either total, or measured against a timescale?  Are they performing largely different numbers of tests, or is the testing comparable?  I suspect Sweden simply isn't performing as many tests, so their "known cases" number should be lower.  It would make sense given their approach-- don't shut down, mask up, voluntarily social-distance, and stay home if you feel sick.  That approach would also be congruent with limited testing, since the point of their approach was never to determine every single person that is sick, but rather to tell sick people to stay home while letting the virus run its course as long as hospitals don't get overwhelmed. (Which was actually similar to what our original approach in the USA was, until somebody highjacked the message and decided ZERO CASES was the only acceptable outcome).

I think you need to compare hospitalization numbers (in total or over time) and deaths/million (as you already have), to get a closer comparison between the two regions.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 27, 2020, 11:49:04 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 27, 2020, 09:42:15 AM
Sweden is down under 200 new cases per day.  Georgia is around 2,500, similar population.  How did that happen?

Are you telling me it was better compliance with individual guideline behaviors?

Because Sweden is full of Swedes and Georgia is full of Georgians.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 27, 2020, 11:53:27 AM
Sweden also has very different demographics than here. Fewer multi-generation households, a lot more one-person households, generally a somewhat uniformly wealth nation where a lot of people were already WFH. 

Plus, they have more of a tendency to trust their government than to assume that a mask mandate is part of the Bill Gates Illuminati Bilderberg Koch/Soros master plan to enslave us all before feeding us to the lizard people.

You can look at case numbers, but Sweden is still 6th in Europe in deaths/1M population amongst populous nations (i.e. San Marino and Andorra excluded). Their deaths/1M number has been rising faster than Italy/UK/Spain ahead of them and is growing VERY close to those countries, so they could be 3rd in Europe within another 1-2 months. And that includes Russia in "Europe". 

Then there's utee's point. Maybe they're not testing that well. They're roughly 17th in Europe in tests/1M population amongst populous nations. The 5 nations above them in deaths/1M are also above them in tests/1M, so it might not be apples-to-apples. 

But even then, with limited testing, Sweden has the 2nd-highest cases/1M rate amongst populous nations in Europe. The only one higher is Spain. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries)

Then you compare them to their "peers" which is the Nordic neighbors of Norway and Finland, which are the closest demographic comparisons to Sweden, and Sweden has 10x the deaths/1M rate as those two countries and >4x cases/1M rate of those two countries. They both have equal or higher tests/1M rate, so it shouldn't be a testing discrepancy.

So I'm not sure we can walk away from this and say Sweden did "well". It's too early to know whether some of those other countries will catch up when you talk about the total "area under the curve", but I think a lot of people talk about how wonderful Sweden is based on raw numbers without accounting for the fact that it's a country of low population so it just doesn't seem as high as other places. 

And to bring up the state of GA, as I know you do, Cincy, GA has over twice the tests/1M rate that Sweden has, and has a slightly (~20%) lower deaths/1M rate than Sweden. They do have a significantly higher [3x] cases/1M rate. Not sure how to explain that difference where they have 3x the case rate but a lower death rate... Maybe they're more aggressively testing a younger portion of the population whereas Sweden isnt? I don't know...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 27, 2020, 11:57:35 AM
Cincy has brought up Sweden about 93 times, as if it'll skew the numbers towards something different.  I don't understand it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 27, 2020, 12:05:22 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 27, 2020, 11:57:35 AM
Cincy has brought up Sweden about 93 times, as if it'll skew the numbers towards something different.  I don't understand it.
OAM, everyone has brought up Sweden, including myself.

Because Sweden was an outlier in their response to this thing, so it's an extraordinarily interesting case. 

There have been a few people in this thread who have brought up Sweden IMHO based on ideological priors and flat out said they did it "right", but as far as I can tell, that's at the very least not Cincy, utee, or me.

We're just honestly fascinated by their case because it was handled so differently than the rest of Europe. And I believe epidemiologists will be studying it for years after this thing is over. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 27, 2020, 12:43:58 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 27, 2020, 12:05:22 PM
OAM, everyone has brought up Sweden, including myself.

Because Sweden was an outlier in their response to this thing, so it's an extraordinarily interesting case.

There have been a few people in this thread who have brought up Sweden IMHO based on ideological priors and flat out said they did it "right", but as far as I can tell, that's at the very least not Cincy, utee, or me.

We're just honestly fascinated by their case because it was handled so differently than the rest of Europe. And I believe epidemiologists will be studying it for years after this thing is over.

Cincy is advocating for it by sheer volume of mentions, imo.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 27, 2020, 12:54:27 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 27, 2020, 12:43:58 PM
Cincy is advocating for it by sheer volume of mentions, imo.
You are lying again.

I am trained as an experimentalist.  Sweden is an experiment.  We should be able to learn something from that experiment.  It has naught to do with whether it should be advocated for as an approach.

Compare and contrast.  And yes, there are multiple variable involved, that is part of what makes it interesting.

Nearly everyone predicted a total disaster for Sweden with their approach, hospitals overrun, much higher death toll, and certainly a continuing epidemic.  Instead the epidemic rates by any measure have dropped dramatically.  I can't explain that other than to suggest they did hit herd immunity somehow.  If they did, that is a critically important piece of information.

Georgia is dropping as well now, as I've noted 93 times.  I'm struggling to explain that also.  States hit very hard early like NY and NJ have come WAY down.

If you don't want to discuss the possible differences and explanations, fine with me, but I do.  Or we could just come up with the trite simplistic mindless blame game.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 27, 2020, 12:55:25 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 27, 2020, 12:43:58 PM
Cincy is advocating for it by sheer volume of mentions, imo.
(https://i.imgur.com/2EgFGMT.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 27, 2020, 01:26:34 PM
@Cincydawg (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=870) one aspect of this that I still find interesting is the weather aspect.

Respiratory viruses tend to be worst in the cooler weather. We all hoped that it would go away when the summer came; and obviously it didn't do that. So I think to some extent we started assuming it was NOT affected by weather. 

But I wonder whether this pattern of "high initial cases, then dropping off significantly" is lulling us into a false sense of security as we approach fall temperatures?

I.e. that there's a certain percentage who caught it very quickly and easily, regardless of the temp. As that wave subsided, and as we've gotten into the heat of summer, there is a natural suppression that's going on as it does with other illnesses of this nature. Will the fall remove that suppression and cases will start exploding again?

Obviously we don't know enough about this thing, but that's one of those things I worry about. 

I.e. if for example Sweden is being "mostly careful" with their behavior PLUS the natural suppression of warmer weather, will they see spikes when the warm weather goes away at their current level of "mostly careful" behavior? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 27, 2020, 01:46:19 PM
Well, that's depressing.  And yes, perhaps this is weather related in Sweden.  The jump in the US South coincided with hot weather of course, but also came a few weeks after "reopening" as well.

That unfortunately appears to be a viable hypothesis.

Bummer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 27, 2020, 01:59:17 PM
I don't know any more than the rest of you about this virus, obviously.

But I'll speculate that the primary weather-related influence of this virus isn't specific to the virus itself, but rather the behavior of people.  The increased spread of the virus occurs when the weather pushes people indoors, to mingle with other people indoors.  

So in the South, it's possible that the hot summer weather outside actually exacerbates this occurrence.  And in the North (and Europe), the winter weather will do the same.

Which is also somewhat depressing, but there you have it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 27, 2020, 02:03:35 PM
I have read articles suggesting our nasal passages are more prone to colds in winter because they dry out.  That makes some sense to me.

Colds are corona virii of course.  So if being indoors in winter means we dry out our noses, this could be bad for COVID.  And as you note, Southern folks tend to stay more indoors in summer, which is not good anyway apparently.  

It's been a pretty nice summer here at least, we have been dining out often.  Not last night though, it was muggy around 7 PM, and then at 9 PM it was decent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 27, 2020, 02:32:51 PM
One of the things I've been doing regularly is using the Neilmed nasal moisturizing spray. But, I've been doing that for years.

You dry out in airplanes too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 27, 2020, 03:08:36 PM
and Cruise ships?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 27, 2020, 03:15:06 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 27, 2020, 03:08:36 PM
and Cruise ships?
Carnival has been sending me info on lots of great deals lately...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 27, 2020, 03:19:24 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 27, 2020, 03:08:36 PM
and Cruise ships?
Nope. Never had that problem.

Would never go on a Carnival either. One and done there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 27, 2020, 04:06:03 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 27, 2020, 01:59:17 PM
I don't know any more than the rest of you about this virus, obviously.

But I'll speculate that the primary weather-related influence of this virus isn't specific to the virus itself, but rather the behavior of people.  The increased spread of the virus occurs when the weather pushes people indoors, to mingle with other people indoors. 

So in the South, it's possible that the hot summer weather outside actually exacerbates this occurrence.  And in the North (and Europe), the winter weather will do the same.

Which is also somewhat depressing, but there you have it.

But does that actually hold true in practice with other respiratory viruses? I've never heard that the South gets inverse behavior with respiratory viruses.

I can say that here in Southern California, it still seems to follow seasonal patterns. Granted, we don't have the humidity that y'all have back east, so maybe our heat isn't quite as oppressive. But I've never heard about this in, say, Phoenix either. And nobody goes outside for a few months in the summer if they can avoid it there. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 27, 2020, 04:32:13 PM
Local college came into classes sounding like it was more ready than most to try to ride out an early spike, owing to some situations where summer folks came back, saw a rise and then fall.

One week into classes saw a big spike the last day of testing, doubling the previous few. We'll see if it goes up fast enough to bother them into changes. The leading admin sounded not enthused in the article I read, but also didn't pull the plug.

(it will also be weird because if they go online only, it's not gonna put much of a dent in the local student population)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 27, 2020, 04:53:53 PM
DES MOINES, Iowa — During her press conference on Thursday, Governor Kim Reynolds says due to a recent uptick in COVID-19 cases among ages 19-24, all bars in six counties are required to close Thursday at 5 p.m. until Sept. 20.

Those counties include Linn, Johnson, Black Hawk, Dallas, Polk and Story.

The new proclamation includes breweries, taverns and nightclubs.

She also says restaurants in these counties will be required to stop selling alcohol at 10 p.m.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 27, 2020, 05:04:03 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 27, 2020, 04:53:53 PM
DES MOINES, Iowa — During her press conference on Thursday, Governor Kim Reynolds says due to a recent uptick in COVID-19 cases among ages 19-24, all bars in six counties are required to close Thursday at 5 p.m. until Sept. 20.

Those counties include Linn, Johnson, Black Hawk, Dallas, Polk and Story.

The new proclamation includes breweries, taverns and nightclubs.

She also says restaurants in these counties will be required to stop selling alcohol at 10 p.m.

that might be a good move
at least she put a target end date on it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 27, 2020, 05:08:08 PM
In France, bars now have to close at 10 PM because the virus wakes up right at that time, apparently.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 27, 2020, 05:26:51 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 27, 2020, 04:06:03 PM
But does that actually hold true in practice with other respiratory viruses? I've never heard that the South gets inverse behavior with respiratory viruses.

I can say that here in Southern California, it still seems to follow seasonal patterns. Granted, we don't have the humidity that y'all have back east, so maybe our heat isn't quite as oppressive. But I've never heard about this in, say, Phoenix either. And nobody goes outside for a few months in the summer if they can avoid it there.
It doesn't, and that's my point.  I'm speculating that whatever weather-driven strengthening/weakening effects might exist for this specific virus, aren't statistically significant due to its extremely infectious nature of this particular virus.  The infectious spread is a result of behavior, rather than inherent characteristics of the nature of the virus.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 27, 2020, 05:42:20 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 27, 2020, 05:26:51 PM
It doesn't, and that's my point.  I'm speculating that whatever weather-driven strengthening/weakening effects might exist for this specific virus, aren't statistically significant due to its extremely infectious nature of this particular virus.  The infectious spread is a result of behavior, rather than inherent characteristics of the nature of the virus.
That's what I can't figure out... If there is a weather component, I'm not sure whether we can say whether that weather component is statistically significant yet.

I do believe behavior is an enormous component. But if weather was an additional brake on transmission, and that brake goes away when the weather gets cool, we could see additional transmission while holding behavior constant. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 27, 2020, 05:49:45 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 27, 2020, 05:42:20 PM
That's what I can't figure out... If there is a weather component, I'm not sure whether we can say whether that weather component is statistically significant yet.

I do believe behavior is an enormous component. But if weather was an additional brake on transmission, and that brake goes away when the weather gets cool, we could see additional transmission while holding behavior constant.
Oh it certainly could be statistically significant.  I'm just speculating that it's not, or even if there's a slight, true weather-effect, it's still dwarfed by the behavioral effects, maybe 90/10 or something.

And if that's true, then there shouldn't be an expectation that winter weather is going to have any significant effect, other than the behavioral one of all the yankees having to huddle inside for 9 months. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 27, 2020, 06:00:48 PM
When I lived in Cincy, I basically huddled December to early March by a fire at home.  I hated going out.  I went to work obviously.  The kids no doubt brought interesting microbes home at times.

They are quite healthy now, aside from the one getting the Dreaded Lurgy.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 27, 2020, 07:16:22 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 27, 2020, 05:08:08 PM
In France, bars now have to close at 10 PM because the virus wakes up right at that time, apparently.
No, that's not the explanation I read.
I read that it's because antibodies go to sleep at that time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 27, 2020, 08:33:00 PM
France is the only country I know of where the bankers go on strike
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 28, 2020, 06:09:18 AM
Everybody in France goes on strike, often at the same time.  It's part of life.  The garbage collectors were on strike last time I was there, that was not fun.

And they had a manifestation going all day and the bridges were close across the Seine.  We couldn't get to our hotel.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 28, 2020, 07:51:25 AM
Quote from: utee94 on August 27, 2020, 05:49:45 PM
other than the behavioral one of all the yankees having to huddle inside for 9 months. :)
Um,no change of seasons is a beautiful thing where as you have two - tumble weeds and those nasty things that blow in off of the ocean :sign0137:   Good luck BTW
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 28, 2020, 09:51:06 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 27, 2020, 08:33:00 PM
France is the only country I know of where the bankers go on strike
banks must be run by the government
horrible government like what we have here with teacher's unions
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 28, 2020, 10:07:51 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 28, 2020, 06:09:18 AM
Everybody in France goes on strike, often at the same time.  It's part of life.  The garbage collectors were on strike last time I was there, that was not fun.

And they had a manifestation going all day and the bridges were close across the Seine.  We couldn't get to our hotel.
I experienced a couple of different transportation strikes in France, one for airline workers and one for rail.  Had to change or cancel plans in both cases.  As I recall, those were both fairly sudden.

In Italy one time, the airline workers had a scheduled strike planned for a few days when I was there.  It was well known and advertised ahead of time, the timing and duration were already pre-planned, so I just had to arrange my travel around those dates.  Seemed sort of weird to me, I thought the point of a strike was to cause "pain" and bring to bear some kind of force on management, from the customer base.  But I guess things work differently over there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on August 28, 2020, 10:08:53 AM
I wonder if having lots of strikes makes people feel more connected to their community and government
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 28, 2020, 10:16:49 AM
Yeah, the French strikes are generally defined ahead of time for a specific duration.  They are very organized about that.  They make some "point" apparently while not inconveniencing other folks as much as a wildcat would.

And yes, we've had to change travel plans ahead of time to avoid strikes.  I've seen the Immigration folks have a slow down that was atrocious.

They generally don't strike in vacation season I've noted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 28, 2020, 10:24:24 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/28/sp-500-heads-for-best-august-since-1986-as-stunning-summer-rally-continues.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/28/sp-500-heads-for-best-august-since-1986-as-stunning-summer-rally-continues.html)

This is also interesting to me, as I view the stock market as a kind of collective "wisdom" on the intermediate economy (which can be wrong).  This is a remarkable recovery I doubt many expected in March.  The actual economy is lagging this considerably of course.  Congress seems locked into inaction.  The Fed is pulling out all the stops and then some.  It could be that assets are preferred to cash eq.  It seems to be a guess the COVID thing is manageable and will end soonish.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 28, 2020, 10:25:47 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on August 28, 2020, 10:08:53 AM
I wonder if having lots of strikes makes people feel more connected to their community and government
At least in France, I don't think this is what striking workers have in mind.  The Yellow Vest movement did morph into something akin to a club with social activities.
That was obviously manifestation, not a strike though.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 28, 2020, 10:31:31 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 28, 2020, 10:16:49 AM
Yeah, the French strikes are generally defined ahead of time for a specific duration.  They are very organized about that.  They make some "point" apparently while not inconveniencing other folks as much as a wildcat would.

And yes, we've had to change travel plans ahead of time to avoid strikes.  I've seen the Immigration folks have a slow down that was atrocious.

They generally don't strike in vacation season I've noted.
Good point, I hadn't thought of that but it matches my experience.  All of the strikes I've encountered have been whilst traveling on business during the off-season.  Never when I've been traveling for pleasure during the vacation season.

How thoughtful of them! :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on August 28, 2020, 10:34:28 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 28, 2020, 10:25:47 AM
At least in France, I don't think this is what striking workers have in mind.  The Yellow Vest movement did morph into something akin to a club with social activities.
That was obviously manifestation, not a strike though.



I'm sure it's not - more of a wonder if having segments that are vital to society regularly airing their grievances and halting public life makes people more connected to their public life.  Like here strikes happen, though they don't tend to impact other people all that much and as such there is little reason for people to care.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 28, 2020, 10:34:54 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 28, 2020, 10:24:24 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/28/sp-500-heads-for-best-august-since-1986-as-stunning-summer-rally-continues.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/28/sp-500-heads-for-best-august-since-1986-as-stunning-summer-rally-continues.html)

This is also interesting to me, as I view the stock market as a kind of collective "wisdom" on the intermediate economy (which can be wrong).  This is a remarkable recovery I doubt many expected in March.  The actual economy is lagging this considerably of course.  Congress seems locked into inaction.  The Fed is pulling out all the stops and then some.  It could be that assets are preferred to cash eq.  It seems to be a guess the COVID thing is manageable and will end soonish.
I moved some stocks back to pre-covid holdings yesterday
shifting to match the times, they are a changing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 29, 2020, 09:32:59 PM
So, we've finished our two opening weeks where I teach high school.  Half the student body attending class each week, the other half staying home and doing nothing.  Supposedly, that was just so that we could get to know our students before we went the distance-learning (a stupid neologism, IMO) route.

This coming week will be all distance learning.  Then we have the 3-day Labor Day weekend.  And come back to full-on face-to-face, classrooms full school until further notice.

We were told that such a decision would be made after three consecutive weeks of lower COVID cases in our county.  But we have not had three such weeks.  And statewide, we are at record levels for deaths.

So, on 8 September, we'll be open for business with over 1,000 students in full classrooms rotating their germs and spit and slobber and sneezes from one classroom to the next, through the halls and bathrooms, at the end of every hour.  They'll be masked in classrooms, and are supposed to be masked in the hallways (although I've had to make some corrections), but not at lunch, so that they can eat.  And converse.  In close proximity.

As teachers, we feel somewhat lied to and not unlike guinea pigs.  I've not heard of any who think that this is a good idea or that it will hold up for very long.  But no worry!  We are told that if there is a severe COVID outbreak at our school we'll go back to the distance-learning model.  Back to it?  Yes, back.  Even though we've never done one day of full-student-body distance learning, we'll go "back" to it if there's a severe outbreak.

In the better--and far more important!--news, our 3-time-defending-state-champ football team stomped the #4 team in the next higher division last night.  And maybe that's what it's all about.  Maybe we couldn't play football if we were not actually holding class in the school building.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on August 29, 2020, 11:17:50 PM
We had our first vball matches today.  100% masks for coaches and adults.   Kids can remove masks while playing, must wear after rotating off the court. lnteresting to observe that 6 of 8 of my 3rd/4th grade team kept masks on all the time.  Meanwhile 1/10 of my 5th/6th graders kept their masks on at all times.  Vball is such a social game, its hard to be social w masks and such.   Kids are really good about protocols.   

I hate practices w the mask on really hard to hear and be heard.  Of course we make do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 30, 2020, 12:32:01 AM
The Bulwark
The Triad
Three things to read by JVL
. . .
2. Good News on COVID
We had two really big pieces of COVID news this week that are very encouraging.

The first is that the FDA has approved a new simple rapid test (https://thebulwark.us18.list-manage.com/track/click?u=41df14e6667a85d0f6e4a4f5e&id=e4b5d42582&e=cc5e458e14). 

Here's how it works: You get a nasal swap. The provider rubs the swab on a piece of paper. Fifteen minutes later the paper either shows you 1 line (negative) or 2 lines (positive).

This is a really big deal, for a few reasons.

First, a test that requires off-site processing of one or more days is only marginally useful. Having a rapid test that can be conducted on-site is going change the game when it comes to test-and-trace.

Second, because the test is so simple, it can be produced at scale cheaply. The manufacturer, Abbott Diagnostics, says that they plan on making 50 million tests a month.

To date we've conducted 79 million tests in the United States. So this would be an evolutionary leap.

Which brings us to the other bit of good news: The University of Arizona found a way to stop an outbreak before it started.

I'm going to paraphrase the story as reported (https://thebulwark.us18.list-manage.com/track/click?u=41df14e6667a85d0f6e4a4f5e&id=aa1e0cb90b&e=cc5e458e14) by Charles Fishman (author of one of the best books I've ever read about economics and business: The Walmart Effect (https://thebulwark.us18.list-manage.com/track/click?u=41df14e6667a85d0f6e4a4f5e&id=8b59233c81&e=cc5e458e14)):

  • If you have the coronavirus, it sheds significantly in your stool.
  • So your poop is a pretty strong indicator for infection.
  • At the University of Arizona, they set up wastewater testing for on-campus dorms.
  • The wastewater testing showed virus coming from one dorm (Likins Hall).
  • The school did rapid tests (like the one we just talked about) on all 311 residents of the dorm.
  • They caught two positives, who were asymptomatic.
  • They moved these two cases to isolation and then traced their contacts.
  • BOOM!
That's how you do infectious disease management. (For a primer on how not to do infectious disease management, look at the University of Alabama, where faculty have been instructed not to talk (https://thebulwark.us18.list-manage.com/track/click?u=41df14e6667a85d0f6e4a4f5e&id=72b40a8e55&e=cc5e458e14) about COVID and, if they become aware of infections, not to tell students.)

Why is this good news? Well, this approach doesn't scale. You can only do it in relatively small closed systems. But America has a lot of relatively small closed systems. Like, for instance, universities. So this offers a path forward.

But more important is this: It shows that we can fight the spread of the virus. We aren't fated to just sit here waiting for herd immunity. We don't have to keep silent about it and pretend it's not happening. We don't have to retreat to wishcasting about how if we don't test, then everything will be fine.

If we are serious about managing this disease, then it can be done.

Better late than never.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 30, 2020, 12:33:56 AM
This will be like a slow-motion train wreck.  By Oct 1, we'll be in the middle of the consequences.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on August 30, 2020, 01:01:01 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 29, 2020, 09:32:59 PM
So, we've finished our two opening weeks where I teach high school.  Half the student body attending class each week, the other half staying home and doing nothing.  Supposedly, that was just so that we could get to know our students before we went the distance-learning (a stupid neologism, IMO) route.

This coming week will be all distance learning.  Then we have the 3-day Labor Day weekend.  And come back to full-on face-to-face, classrooms full school until further notice.

We were told that such a decision would be made after three consecutive weeks of lower COVID cases in our county.  But we have not had three such weeks.  And statewide, we are at record levels for deaths.

So, on 8 September, we'll be open for business with over 1,000 students in full classrooms rotating their germs and spit and slobber and sneezes from one classroom to the next, through the halls and bathrooms, at the end of every hour.  They'll be masked in classrooms, and are supposed to be masked in the hallways (although I've had to make some corrections), but not at lunch, so that they can eat.  And converse.  In close proximity.

As teachers, we feel somewhat lied to and not unlike guinea pigs.  I've not heard of any who think that this is a good idea or that it will hold up for very long.  But no worry!  We are told that if there is a severe COVID outbreak at our school we'll go back to the distance-learning model.  Back to it?  Yes, back.  Even though we've never done one day of full-student-body distance learning, we'll go "back" to it if there's a severe outbreak.

In the better--and far more important!--news, our 3-time-defending-state-champ football team stomped the #4 team in the next higher division last night.  And maybe that's what it's all about.  Maybe we couldn't play football if we were not actually holding class in the school building.

I think some of the schools around here are having food delivered to classrooms. Students at most schools are allowed to opt out for remote learning and I think the percentages of the remote learners are in the low to mid 20s.
I was told that we have 9 teachers in quarantine in our school district - it means they were exposed to someone who was positive, not necessarily that they are positive.
The #s of new COVID cases in our rural county are spiking, and the Dubuque TH newspaper says the State is suppressing the numbers by not counting anyone whose birth date has not been provided and some other issues. The TH says the true positivity test rate from their calculations for our rural county, Delaware County Iowa,  exceeds 16%, but they are not including the ones for which a birth date is not provided.
The TH has been on the IDPH for about 3-weeks having uncovered the fact that their test results appear to understate the positive tests. The TH noticed that positive tests were increasing for previous months like March and April. The IDPH finally admitted after the TH was questioning the numbers, that if someone tested negative in March, and took a 2nd test in August that was positive, the August positive test was recorded as a March positive test, not as an August positive test. Iowa's test results are spiking and the TH projects that in its circulation area that the State's #s are about 22% understated. If we were to compare to other countries, Iowa would now be near the top of the chart with true #s, and we are very high with false #s.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 30, 2020, 01:28:26 AM
So Tennessee cancels practice because of positive tests.  What happens when this scene repeats 2 days before they play Florida?  

Is Clemson no longer a top team if Lawrence is out for 2 weeks and those are the Tigers' only losses?  


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2020, 06:57:55 AM
Seven day average in new cases reported in GA is 2219.  The peak was 3517 a month ago.

Back in April, the peak was only 820 or so, new cases reported, probably had deficient testing then.  Testing is widely available now and simply not being utilized, centers have no lines, nobody much wants to be tested.

As for sports, MLB seems to be managing thus far mostly.  College kids is a different story of course.

The only solid hope might be for this Abbott test to be used widely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 30, 2020, 09:27:41 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 30, 2020, 01:28:26 AM
So Tennessee cancels practice because of positive tests.  What happens when this scene repeats 2 days before they play Florida? 

Is Clemson no longer a top team if Lawrence is out for 2 weeks and those are the Tigers' only losses? 



play Florida anyway, skipping a couple practices isn't an excuse to forget the playbook or technique 

if Lawrence tweaks a knee and is held out for two weeks it's the same thing - the pollsters vote as they wish
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 30, 2020, 11:32:55 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on August 30, 2020, 01:01:01 AM
I think some of the schools around here are having food delivered to classrooms. Students at most schools are allowed to opt out for remote learning and I think the percentages of the remote learners are in the low to mid 20s. . . .
About 20% of the students in our district are opting out for remote learning.  No advanced classes (like AP or "Honors" classes) are available to them.
I'm going to emphasize to my students that, if they want a school year, they need to follow all the rules.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 30, 2020, 02:52:31 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 30, 2020, 09:27:41 AM
play Florida anyway, skipping a couple practices isn't an excuse to forget the playbook or technique

if Lawrence tweaks a knee and is held out for two weeks it's the same thing - the pollsters vote as they wish
No, as in those 16 or 7 or 23 players are OUT because of covid.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 30, 2020, 04:11:05 PM
so as a side note I stopped shaving when this virus crap started and have grown a decent beard

so much so that yesterday my daughter started calling my Billy after Bill Gibbons of ZZ Top fame

I resolved not to shave until this thing is over so I will probably have a much longer one by then
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2020, 04:12:17 PM
I stopped shaving August 10 when I had shoulder surgery.  I am in the very itchy phase now.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 30, 2020, 04:17:55 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 30, 2020, 04:12:17 PM
I stopped shaving August 10 when I had shoulder surgery.  I am in the very itchy phase now.


Im in the dont let it get in the cereal phase

Here I am in one of my off moments:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqzUsATxom4 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqzUsATxom4)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 30, 2020, 04:31:47 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 30, 2020, 04:12:17 PM
I stopped shaving August 10 when I had shoulder surgery.  I am in the very itchy phase now.


Pictures or it didn't happen

(https://i.imgur.com/UJQAk32.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 30, 2020, 04:33:03 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 30, 2020, 04:17:55 PM
Im in the dont let it get in the cereal phase

Here I am in one of my off moments:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqzUsATxom4 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqzUsATxom4)
Reverend Billy "G"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 30, 2020, 04:44:56 PM
we're not worthy
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 30, 2020, 09:10:44 PM
This is from BMJ, which I believe is short for British Medical Journal.

Physical distancing rules would be most effective if they reflected graded levels of risk. Figure 3 (https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3223#F3) presents a guide to how transmission risk may vary with setting, occupancy level, contact time, and whether face coverings are worn. These estimates apply when everyone is asymptomatic. In the highest risk situations (indoor environments with poor ventilation, high levels of occupancy, prolonged contact time, and no face coverings, such as a crowded bar or night club) physical distancing beyond 2 m and minimising occupancy time should be considered. Less stringent distancing is likely to be adequate in low risk scenarios. People with symptoms (who should in any case be self-isolating) tend to have high viral load and more frequent violent respiratory exhalations.

(https://i.imgur.com/VYmVfaq.png)

Fig 3

Risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from asymptomatic people in different settings and for different occupation times, venting, and crowding levels (ignoring variation in susceptibility and viral shedding rates). Face covering refers to those for the general population and not high grade respirators. The grades are indicative of qualitative relative risk and do not represent a quantitative measure. Other factors not presented in these tables may also need to be taken into account when considering transmission risk, including viral load of an infected person and people’s susceptibility to infection. Coughing or sneezing, even if these are due to irritation or allergies while asymptomatic, would exacerbate risk of exposure across an indoor space, regardless of ventilation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 30, 2020, 09:12:00 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 30, 2020, 04:12:17 PM
I stopped shaving August 10 when I had shoulder surgery.  I am in the very itchy phase now.


That's the worst.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 30, 2020, 09:14:17 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 30, 2020, 09:10:44 PM
This is from BMJ, which I believe is short for British Medical Journal.

Physical distancing rules would be most effective if they reflected graded levels of risk. Figure 3 (https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3223#F3) presents a guide to how transmission risk may vary with setting, occupancy level, contact time, and whether face coverings are worn. These estimates apply when everyone is asymptomatic. In the highest risk situations (indoor environments with poor ventilation, high levels of occupancy, prolonged contact time, and no face coverings, such as a crowded bar or night club) physical distancing beyond 2 m and minimising occupancy time should be considered. Less stringent distancing is likely to be adequate in low risk scenarios. People with symptoms (who should in any case be self-isolating) tend to have high viral load and more frequent violent respiratory exhalations.

(https://i.imgur.com/VYmVfaq.png)

Fig 3

Risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from asymptomatic people in different settings and for different occupation times, venting, and crowding levels (ignoring variation in susceptibility and viral shedding rates). Face covering refers to those for the general population and not high grade respirators. The grades are indicative of qualitative relative risk and do not represent a quantitative measure. Other factors not presented in these tables may also need to be taken into account when considering transmission risk, including viral load of an infected person and people’s susceptibility to infection. Coughing or sneezing, even if these are due to irritation or allergies while asymptomatic, would exacerbate risk of exposure across an indoor space, regardless of ventilation.
Cool, so teaching 20ish+ students in a poorly-ventilated classroom is high-risk, even with a mask.  No wonder teachers all over are retiring and quitting.  


I'd guess science teachers more than most.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 30, 2020, 09:15:03 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on August 30, 2020, 04:31:47 PM
Pictures or it didn't happen

(https://i.imgur.com/UJQAk32.png)
I grew a beard for half this year, and I can confidently say he did not have near enough beard for how long he was there. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 30, 2020, 09:21:19 PM
Well they had to get the film to theaters
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 30, 2020, 09:36:20 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 30, 2020, 02:52:31 PM
No, as in those 16 or 7 or 23 players are OUT because of covid. 
so, is Florida in fear of losing a game because 7 or 23 players are out?

Tough shit

join the Big Ten if you want to be a big hairy pussy
otherwise, take the field and take your chances
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 30, 2020, 09:45:19 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 30, 2020, 09:36:20 PM
so, is Florida in fear of losing a game because 7 or 23 players are out?

Tough shit

join the Big Ten if you want to be a big hairy pussy
otherwise, take the field and take your chances
LOL 


Coach Fearless barks his orders to the players
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 30, 2020, 09:57:29 PM
oh no!!!!, our star QB is out do to COVID and 6 other good players, we don't want to take an ass whippin from our rival


man up little bitch!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 30, 2020, 09:59:33 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 30, 2020, 09:57:29 PM
oh no!!!!, our star QB is out do to COVID and 6 other good players, we don't want to take an ass whippin from our rival


man up little bitch!
have another on me coach
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 30, 2020, 10:11:18 PM
thank you coach, may I have another
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 30, 2020, 11:48:32 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 30, 2020, 10:11:18 PM
thank you coach, may I have another
How many have you had already?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on August 31, 2020, 12:25:38 AM
My daughter reports there is a COVID-19 positive test in her graduate program, someone in her classroom section of 15-students. I believe they wear masks indoors at all times, so I think it is low risk for her. The kids rumored it out into the open. No contact tracers called her. Lucky it was caught today (Sunday).  She was supposed to do some type of clinical exercise in a 3-person group with this guy tomorrow.

I suggested someone report this to faculty immediately, on Sunday.  I doubt anyone reported it. We will see how the university handles it. The university's website was reporting "0" cases Friday. Their website says they have protocols in place, but the website does not say what protocols are in place when someone tests positive. Will her section go to remote learning? We'll see.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 31, 2020, 08:41:36 AM
I'd ask about the false positive rate, but I know it depends on which sort of test was conducted, so we don't know.

Imagine it's as low as just one percent, that still is quite high when you have a group, and conduct testing fairly often.  Take 15 people and test them once a week ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 31, 2020, 10:06:19 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on August 31, 2020, 12:25:38 AM
My daughter reports there is a COVID-19 positive test in her graduate program, someone in her classroom section of 15-students. I believe they wear masks indoors at all times, so I think it is low risk for her. The kids rumored it out into the open. No contact tracers called her. Lucky it was caught today (Sunday).  She was supposed to do some type of clinical exercise in a 3-person group with this guy tomorrow.

I suggested someone report this to faculty immediately, on Sunday.  I doubt anyone reported it. We will see how the university handles it. The university's website was reporting "0" cases Friday. Their website says they have protocols in place, but the website does not say what protocols are in place when someone tests positive. Will her section go to remote learning? We'll see.
apparently his guy has symptoms and got a test?  or random testing?

lucky it came out
hopefully the University does the safe thing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on August 31, 2020, 03:10:29 PM
https://arizonadailyindependent.com/maricopa-county-health-official-admits-manipulating-covid-19-deaths/ (https://arizonadailyindependent.com/maricopa-county-health-official-admits-manipulating-covid-19-deaths/)

Have no way to find out how many deaths were reported as covid deaths that had nothing to do with it. 

and we have this from the CDC

https://www.bing.com/search?q=6%25+of+covid+deaths+with+non-contributing+factors&cvid=4ac8548bb39c4d5e9e1f7e4f5d71caef&FORM=ANAB01&PC=U531 (https://www.bing.com/search?q=6%+of+covid+deaths+with+non-contributing+factors&cvid=4ac8548bb39c4d5e9e1f7e4f5d71caef&FORM=ANAB01&PC=U531)

so only 6% of the death by Covid had no contributing factors. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 31, 2020, 03:25:42 PM
as well as intentional and unintentional injury, poisoning and other adverse events.”

The report has been misinterpreted as these conditions being “underlying,” which is not accurate. They are “contributing” conditions, many of which can be brought about by the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 31, 2020, 03:28:13 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on August 31, 2020, 03:10:29 PM
https://arizonadailyindependent.com/maricopa-county-health-official-admits-manipulating-covid-19-deaths/ (https://arizonadailyindependent.com/maricopa-county-health-official-admits-manipulating-covid-19-deaths/)

Have no way to find out how many deaths were reported as covid deaths that had nothing to do with it.

and we have this from the CDC

https://www.bing.com/search?q=6%25+of+covid+deaths+with+non-contributing+factors&cvid=4ac8548bb39c4d5e9e1f7e4f5d71caef&FORM=ANAB01&PC=U531 (https://www.bing.com/search?q=6%+of+covid+deaths+with+non-contributing+factors&cvid=4ac8548bb39c4d5e9e1f7e4f5d71caef&FORM=ANAB01&PC=U531)

so only 6% of the death by Covid had no contributing factors.

The 6% number is interesting, but without context, it's a bit of hope mongering. Well over one in 10 Americans will have contributing factors. So without a baseline of what percentage of folks could have no contributing factor, it's hard to figure out what that means.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 31, 2020, 03:36:40 PM
If you subtract virus deaths from total deaths how does that number compare with prior years deaths

if its lower then previous years then virus death may have been inflated
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 31, 2020, 03:55:20 PM
Deaths of all causes are running at 111% of "normal", and normal is a pretty tight figure.  We have had so far 1.8 million deaths due to all causes in the US this year.  That is about 190,000 over normal.

This "furor" about how the CDC reported COVID deaths is ridiculous.  

https://www.facebook.com/ZDoggMD/videos/1495013070691847 (https://www.facebook.com/ZDoggMD/videos/1495013070691847)

If you want to understand, this guy nails it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 31, 2020, 03:59:43 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 31, 2020, 03:55:20 PM
Deaths of all causes are running at 111% of "normal", and normal is a pretty tight figure.  We have had so far 1.8 million deaths due to all causes in the US this year.  That is about 190,000 over normal.

If current US virus deaths are 187,000 and we are 190,000 above normal then thats pretty much in line
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 31, 2020, 04:03:44 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 31, 2020, 03:59:43 PM
If current US virus deaths are 187,000 and we are 190,000 above normal then thats pretty much in line
Current virus deaths are closer to 168,000.  If anything, we may be undercounting.  People do die at home obviously.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 31, 2020, 04:07:54 PM
Contributing factors can include diabetes, obesity, heart disease or respiratory issues.

Percentage of the US population with:



Now, obviously some people may have multiple of these. 

But if the argument is that "unhealthy" or "high-risk" people should lock themselves at home so the healthy people can do whatever they want, that's probably >50% of the US. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 31, 2020, 04:09:12 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 31, 2020, 04:03:44 PM
Current virus deaths are closer to 168,000.  If anything, we may be undercounting.  People do die at home obviously. 
not according to my source


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus

not sure where you are getting 168,000 (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 31, 2020, 04:10:07 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 31, 2020, 03:59:43 PM
If current US virus deaths are 187,000 and we are 190,000 above normal then thats pretty much in line
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 31, 2020, 04:03:44 PM
Current virus deaths are closer to 168,000.  If anything, we may be undercounting.  People do die at home obviously. 
Yeah, official CDC numbers seem to have a 1-2 week lag relative to sites like worldometers. 

Either way, it's not like if the numbers are off they're off by multiples, i.e. 2x or 3x. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 31, 2020, 04:10:16 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 31, 2020, 04:07:54 PM
But if the argument is that "unhealthy" or "high-risk" people should lock themselves at home so the healthy people can do whatever they want, that's probably >50% of the US.
A more brutal option is to let the unhealthy die of this and save money.  I've heard that suggested.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 31, 2020, 04:15:45 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 31, 2020, 04:10:16 PM
A more brutal option is to let the unhealthy die of this and save money.  I've heard that suggested.
Maybe we should just start shooting the unhealthy ones. Then they won't need to worry about getting COVID.

Oh wait... According to BMI, I'm over the hump into "obese" territory. Never mind...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 31, 2020, 04:21:18 PM
No need to waste bullets when the Rona will take care of it for us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 31, 2020, 04:27:07 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 31, 2020, 04:07:54 PM
Contributing factors can include diabetes, obesity, heart disease or respiratory issues.




don't forget or leave out  intentional and unintentional injury, poisoning and other adverse events
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on August 31, 2020, 06:12:04 PM
Finally. Iowa is #1 at something other than bushels of corn, bushels of soybeans, pork production, and egg production.

Iowa is #1 in per capita COVID-19. 
https://www.radioiowa.com/2020/08/31/one-report-labels-iowa-coronavirus-outbreak-as-one-of-the-worst/ (https://www.radioiowa.com/2020/08/31/one-report-labels-iowa-coronavirus-outbreak-as-one-of-the-worst/)

Finally, Iowa and Iowa State are in the Top 3 at something. Johnson County is #3 (home to U of Iowa), and Story County is #1 (home to Iowa State University) in per capita COVID-19.

This just in: Iowa State plans to admit 25,000 fans into its 60,000 seat stadium for the home opener, Sept. 12.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 31, 2020, 06:33:35 PM
Quote from: Hawkinole on August 31, 2020, 06:12:04 PM
Finally. Iowa is #1 at something other than bushels of corn, bushels of soybeans, pork production, and egg production.

Iowa is #1 in per capita COVID-19.
https://www.radioiowa.com/2020/08/31/one-report-labels-iowa-coronavirus-outbreak-as-one-of-the-worst/ (https://www.radioiowa.com/2020/08/31/one-report-labels-iowa-coronavirus-outbreak-as-one-of-the-worst/)

Finally, Iowa and Iowa State are in the Top 3 at something. Johnson County is #3 (home to U of Iowa), and Story County is #1 (home to Iowa State University) in per capita COVID-19.

This just in: Iowa State plans to admit 25,000 fans into its 60,000 seat stadium for the home opener, Sept. 12.
nope there are several states with higher per capita numbers
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 31, 2020, 06:57:57 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/UZFx0C5.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 31, 2020, 08:29:02 PM
Quote from: Hawkinole on August 31, 2020, 06:12:04 PM
Finally. Iowa is #1 at something other than bushels of corn, bushels of soybeans, pork production, and egg production.

Iowa is #1 in per capita COVID-19.
https://www.radioiowa.com/2020/08/31/one-report-labels-iowa-coronavirus-outbreak-as-one-of-the-worst/ (https://www.radioiowa.com/2020/08/31/one-report-labels-iowa-coronavirus-outbreak-as-one-of-the-worst/)

Finally, Iowa and Iowa State are in the Top 3 at something. Johnson County is #3 (home to U of Iowa), and Story County is #1 (home to Iowa State University) in per capita COVID-19.

This just in: Iowa State plans to admit 25,000 fans into its 60,000 seat stadium for the home opener, Sept. 12.
as was early on, if in Iowa, stay away from meat packing communities

now, stay away from college communities
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 31, 2020, 08:36:25 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 31, 2020, 08:29:02 PM
as was early on, if in Iowa, stay away from meat packing communities

now, stay away from college communities
It's almost as if you should just avoid congregating with bunches of random people... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on August 31, 2020, 08:40:41 PM
Quote from: Hawkinole on August 31, 2020, 06:12:04 PM
Finally. Iowa is #1 at something other than bushels of corn, bushels of soybeans, pork production, and egg production.

Iowa is #1 in per capita COVID-19.
https://www.radioiowa.com/2020/08/31/one-report-labels-iowa-coronavirus-outbreak-as-one-of-the-worst/ (https://www.radioiowa.com/2020/08/31/one-report-labels-iowa-coronavirus-outbreak-as-one-of-the-worst/)

Finally, Iowa and Iowa State are in the Top 3 at something. Johnson County is #3 (home to U of Iowa), and Story County is #1 (home to Iowa State University) in per capita COVID-19.

This just in: Iowa State plans to admit 25,000 fans into its 60,000 seat stadium for the home opener, Sept. 12.
Finally, an excuse to award this

[img width=283.091 height=500]https://i.imgur.com/xSofkCr.png[/img]
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on August 31, 2020, 09:10:38 PM
Interesting back and forth between the state and some high schools in WV the last couple days.

HS Football starts this Friday. The state issued guidelines a few weeks ago that uses color coded measurements to determine if a school will be eligible to play each week. If you are located in a county that has a COVID rate in the green or yellow the Saturday before the game you can play with modified attendance. Orange or Red and you can’t play that week.

Naturally, some schools got the axe on Saturday. The following day some of those counties were back in the yellow which drew the ire of parents.

So the state goes back on their guidelines somewhat and tells counties now back in the yellow they can play but only if every player and coach tests negative between now and Friday.  First off, that is a nightmare logistically.  Secondly, if even one test comes back positive then with contact tracing not only would it knock a team out of a game this week but the next week as well with a 14 day quarantine.  Once the schools figured this out they all opted out of the testing and decided to just sit  this week out.

This is causing some headaches because you have some schools that are eligible to play but lost opponents for this Friday.  So, those schools are calling each other and scheduling games on the fly even if it doesn’t necessarily make sense from a geographic or enrollment standpoint.

The county I live in was orange on Saturday so no schools can play this Friday.  However, two schools in the county have agreed to play each other next Monday if the county is back to yellow on Saturday.  This means they would play two games in one week, which the state is allowing. The schools that have agreed to play are Class AAA and Class A.  That is the largest and smallest classification in the state and those type schools almost never play each other.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 31, 2020, 09:40:17 PM
Iowa HS football started last Friday night

maybe part of the reason besides college kids for the uptick
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on August 31, 2020, 10:43:36 PM
Kris, I think your explanation of the stutter-stepping in West Virginia is why the Minnesota high school association pushed back HS football to the springtime. Starting and stopping the season would ultimately be more harm than good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on August 31, 2020, 10:53:26 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on August 31, 2020, 10:43:36 PM
Kris, I think your explanation of the stutter-stepping in West Virginia is why the Minnesota high school association pushed back HS football to the springtime. Starting and stopping the season would ultimately be more harm than good.
Hmm. I would say that is debatable.  It definitely isn’t ideal but getting in 6 or 7 games is better than none, imo.

I’m just not taking seriously any proposal that pushes football into the spring.  To me, that is just another way of saying, “Until there is a vaccine we aren’t playing.”  I think deferring to the spring is just kicking the can down the road.

There are just too many reasons football in the spring doesn’t make sense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on September 01, 2020, 12:24:54 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on August 31, 2020, 09:40:17 PM
Iowa HS football started last Friday night

maybe part of the reason besides college kids for the uptick
This plus school reopenings. There are lots of kids riding school buses. I heard 9 teachers are in quarantine within the first week of school. Means they were exposed to a positive COVID-19 case, not necessarily that the teacher tested positive. We do have high school football. I didn't go to the home game, but could see that the visitor stands were filled with as many fans as usual for visitors, from Dubuque Wahlert, Friday night. I wouldn't be afraid to go to the game -- I would stand outside the fence in the end zone if I went, not in the stands, in my usual position. I haven't been going the past 5-years.
In our rural county the daily confirmed cases average 3-4x what they were 6-weeks ago, and sometimes 6 or 7x as many. We have gone from 1-2 per day to 7-14 per day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 01, 2020, 01:51:03 AM
just as a public service I cut a song for ya

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtjceaknzHQ
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 01, 2020, 07:48:22 AM
So, in March, most countries closed down and case rate dropped.  Now most are reopening, most states here already did, and every one has experienced a rise in cases, and then a peak and decline (Europe has not yet hit the decline phase).  This is not at an infection rate anywhere close to typical herd immunity, technically.  Even Sweden didn't get there unless we're misreading the number of asymptomatic folks who were undiagnosed by a large factor.

Here in HA we're continuing to drop even as my local assessment of mask wearing suggests we're not doing a very good job here.

I keep saying "we" are missing something big in this.  And then there is Sweden.  I doubt anyone could have expected this comparison to be this way.

Sweden 574 deaths per million, 8,346 cases per million diagnosed, 1 million tests

Georgia 530 deaths per million, 25,000 cases per million, 2.6 million tests

Georgia has a 30% African American population, no socialized medicine, and more poor folks than Sweden.  Three times as many cases and fewer deaths (slightly).

Reopened partially April 23, the earliest of any state that closed down.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on September 01, 2020, 08:01:08 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 01, 2020, 07:48:22 AM
So, in March, most countries closed down and case rate dropped.  Now most are reopening, most states here already did, and every one has experienced a rise in cases, and then a peak and decline (Europe has not yet hit the decline phase).  This is not at an infection rate anywhere close to typical herd immunity, technically.  Even Sweden didn't get there unless we're misreading the number of asymptomatic folks who were undiagnosed by a large factor.

Here in HA we're continuing to drop even as my local assessment of mask wearing suggests we're not doing a very good job here.

I keep saying "we" are missing something big in this.  And then there is Sweden.  I doubt anyone could have expected this comparison to be this way.

Sweden 574 deaths per million, 8,346 cases per million diagnosed, 1 million tests

Georgia 530 deaths per million, 25,000 cases per million, 2.6 million tests

Georgia has a 30% African American population, no socialized medicine, and more poor folks than Sweden.  Three times as many cases and fewer deaths (slightly).

Reopened partially April 23, the earliest of any state that closed down.


I don't know that it's wildly complicated - masks, social distancing, summer - all lead to poor conditions for the virus to transmit which means the herd immunity threshold can be low.  Change those factors and it goes up.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 01, 2020, 08:05:05 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on September 01, 2020, 08:01:08 AM
I don't know that it's wildly complicated - masks, social distancing, summer - all lead to poor conditions for the virus to transmit which means the herd immunity threshold can be low.  Change those factors and it goes up. 
So, it's still summer in Italy and France, why are their numbers going back up?  Why did Sweden drop dramatically?  Why did Georgia go up sharply in June and July in the middle of summer?  Why did Sweden have more deaths with fewer diagnosed cases than Georgia?

Herd immunity obviously cannot be impacted by wearing masks or summer or social distancing longer term.  Those things impact R naught but not HI.  Only two things impact HI.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on September 01, 2020, 09:00:48 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 01, 2020, 08:05:05 AM
So, it's still summer in Italy and France, why are their numbers going back up?  Why did Sweden drop dramatically?  Why did Georgia go up sharply in June and July in the middle of summer?  Why did Sweden have more deaths with fewer diagnosed cases than Georgia?

Herd immunity obviously cannot be impacted by wearing masks or summer or social distancing longer term.  Those things impact R naught but not HI.  Only two things impact HI.
What I mean is - herd immunity is just one factor that affects the inflection point on the disease rising or falling.  So while with no other factors affecting the disease, the herd immunity point may be 60%.  But with other factors, i.e. social distancing, that percentage could drop to, say, 20%, because there are other factors present that reduce transmission.  If I could figure out how to import google's coronavirus graphs here it would be a lot easier to show what I mean.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 01, 2020, 09:07:53 AM
In other words, a disease vector can have several components.  Thanks for that.

My issue is melding those various components into a "theory" that explains the data, as opposed to just hand waving and claiming it all makes sense, somehow, vaguely.

I've been saying for some time we're missing something in all of this, something important.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on September 01, 2020, 09:10:26 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 01, 2020, 09:07:53 AM
In other words, a disease vector can have several components.  Thanks for that.

My issue is melding those various components into a "theory" that explains the data, as opposed to just hand waving and claiming it all makes sense, somehow, vaguely.

I've been saying for some time we're missing something in all of this, something important.
I just don't think there is.  I haven't seen anything about this virus that is much different than any other similar one.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 01, 2020, 09:21:57 AM
What similar one? I don't think that exists. This is a weird one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 01, 2020, 09:22:02 AM
This virus has a rather lengthy latency period.  That is singular.

This virus has apparently quite a few asymptomatic individuals.  That is unusual.

This virus appears to be more contagious than normal.

This virus often causes a cytokine explosion, which is unusual in corona virii.

This virus is apparently zoonotic, which isn't that unusual of course, but is not common either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on September 01, 2020, 09:34:39 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 01, 2020, 09:21:57 AM
What similar one? I don't think that exists. This is a weird one.
Mostly compared to common colds and flus.  It is a respiratory illness.  Obviously, it seems to be spreading more quickly than others, likely due to it's novel nature, and it had harsher effects on some people, though not a way particularly unexpected.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on September 01, 2020, 09:51:52 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 01, 2020, 09:22:02 AM
This virus has a rather lengthy latency period.  That is singular.

This virus has apparently quite a few asymptomatic individuals.  That is unusual.

This virus appears to be more contagious than normal.

This virus often causes a cytokine explosion, which is unusual in corona virii.

This virus is apparently zoonotic, which isn't that unusual of course, but is not common either.
1. The period between infection and symptoms is somewhat longer than 2-3 days for the cold and 1-4 days for the flu.  Is this because the body doesn't necessarily recognize COVID - which is still being studied and thus gets us a wide range of 2-14 days, with a median of 4-5 days.  I don't know that this is particularly novel, especially with newer diseases.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html

 (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html)2. Asymptomatics are something that I didn't know much about when this started and sounded scary.  However, the asymptomatic rate is not unusual - it is very similar to the flu.  

https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1284513429391323137?s=20

3. I agree that the virus is more contagious than normal.

4. I'm not sure that is something we can say right now. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767939

 (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767939)5. Agree
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 01, 2020, 12:21:03 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 01, 2020, 07:48:22 AM
So, in March, most countries closed down and case rate dropped.  Now most are reopening, most states here already did, and every one has experienced a rise in cases, and then a peak and decline (Europe has not yet hit the decline phase).  This is not at an infection rate anywhere close to typical herd immunity, technically.  Even Sweden didn't get there unless we're misreading the number of asymptomatic folks who were undiagnosed by a large factor.

Here in HA we're continuing to drop even as my local assessment of mask wearing suggests we're not doing a very good job here.

I keep saying "we" are missing something big in this.  And then there is Sweden.  I doubt anyone could have expected this comparison to be this way.

Sweden 574 deaths per million, 8,346 cases per million diagnosed, 1 million tests

Georgia 530 deaths per million, 25,000 cases per million, 2.6 million tests

Georgia has a 30% African American population, no socialized medicine, and more poor folks than Sweden.  Three times as many cases and fewer deaths (slightly).

Reopened partially April 23, the earliest of any state that closed down.


in other words, be like Georgia, not like Sweden
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 01, 2020, 01:17:32 PM
Yup, Georgia is clearly superior to Sweden.

U S A!  U S A! U S A!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 01, 2020, 01:20:14 PM
SEC, SEC, SEC
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 01, 2020, 01:52:52 PM
Latency combined with high contagion rate during that period.

A WSJ article opined that the US hit the worst possible approach to this, a shut down that wasn't long enough, and just bulling through it with current precautions would have been a better compromise (a la Sweden).  France shut down and reopened and is shutting down again partially because the rates are going back up.  And they start back to K-12 school today.

NY state, hit hard early, now is way down.  States not hit hard early went up, and now are coming down.

Area under the curve.

When did we last have a flu season with 170,000 deaths?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 01, 2020, 02:01:33 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 01, 2020, 01:52:52 PM
Latency combined with high contagion rate during that period.

A WSJ article opined that the US hit the worst possible approach to this, a shut down that wasn't long enough, and just bulling through it with current precautions would have been a better compromise (a la Sweden).  France shut down and reopened and is shutting down again partially because the rates are going back up.  And they start back to K-12 school today.

NY state, hit hard early, now is way down.  States not hit hard early went up, and now are coming down.

Area under the curve.

When did we last have a flu season with 170,000 deaths?
New York still doesn't have inside bars open, or inside restaurants open at any meaningful capacity, as well.  If/when they do, then I expect to see their cases begin to climb again, just as they did in Italy and Spain (and Texas and other US states) when they reopened bars and allowed meaningful interior restaurant capacity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 01, 2020, 02:09:07 PM
Bars/nightclubs are closed here and restaurants inside are at 50% capacity, though I'm seeing some around us ignoring that.

We spiked here in June to a very worrisome extent, some hospitals were at 105% capacity.  Then the rate of new reported cases dropped in August from about 3800 per day to about 2200 per day.

A local strip bar had a sign out that said "Clothed until further notice".  There is an area about 2 miles north of us that has 6-7 strip bars, fairly seedy looking.  My liquor store is just to the other side of them.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 01, 2020, 02:13:51 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 01, 2020, 02:09:07 PM
Bars/nightclubs are closed here and restaurants inside are at 50% capacity, though I'm seeing some around us ignoring that.

We spiked here in June to a very worrisome extent, some hospitals were at 105% capacity.  Then the rate of new reported cases dropped in August from about 3800 per day to about 2200 per day.

A local strip bar had a sign out that said "Clothed until further notice".  There is an area about 2 miles north of us that has 6-7 strip bars, fairly seedy looking.  My liquor store is just to the other side of them. 


Yup, same here.  Bars opened in May, then closed in late June/July as the numbers of cases/hospitalizations/ICU climbed.  Restaurants dropped back from 75% to 50%.  Now Texas in general, and Austin specifically, are back on a better trajectory.

Pretty clear that bars, and full restaurants, that are inside, are among the worst areas of spread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on September 01, 2020, 02:15:49 PM
Hot off the press from Morrill Hall: the Maroon-and-Gold Sunrise Plan (https://drive.google.com/file/d/1rSgDZrHYfvMp0FXvKVJLR_Txr5r6g2wz/view), the plan to resume move-in. The following was sent out a few minutes ago to all students and staff of the University: 


Quote
Dear Twin Cities students, faculty, and staff,

With approval from our Board of Regents, we made the decision on Aug. 24 to delay for two weeks the start of most in-person classes and the move-in of students to our residence halls on three of our campuses, including here in the Twin Cities. We knew that taking a brief pause to learn from the challenges of our peers around the country as students returned to their campuses would allow the University to adjust its approach once again to mitigate the transmission of the virus and provide a higher level of safety for our students, faculty, and staff.

Today, we have a way forward that allows us to adapt our extensive plans developed over the summer and offer a return to on-campus life and instruction that prioritizes your safety while mitigating the spread of COVID-19. The Maroon and Gold Sunrise Plan (http://click.ecommunications2.umn.edu/?qs=6cdadd38d49e3af9545e62106a46cb223de1068ce049fe2561f26f816fa39e10370d302180521066647a28baf2f97152a30f18fe6d51f953) adds a layer to existing plans for Fall 2020, and specifically addresses how we will welcome undergraduate students back to our residence halls.
This plan requires full community participation if we are to be successful. In particular, not only do we need our undergraduate students who live in on-campus housing to participate, we also need partnership off campus in fraternities and sororities, and from students who live close by. It will be difficult and it won’t look like a traditional fall on our campus, but if we all commit to this plan, commit to our health precautions, and fully utilize the MTest plan (http://click.ecommunications2.umn.edu/?qs=6cdadd38d49e3af9ec7d8099120417c4d15a77b9c5baa3e21f37a0dcb6c809cec1e5ec3363f265ad311c8a0698dc2dee0b21bfb8150b41ad), we can continue with on-campus courses, active residence halls, and other activities this semester.

The Plan includes the following carefully-designed “steps” for students at the Duluth, Rochester, and Twin Cities campuses:
Step One - Students living in housing will have limited on-campus activities. They will live and learn almost exclusively within residence halls for at least 10 days with some exceptions, such as attending any in-person classes, utilizing dining or campus health facilities, going to work, tending to family emergencies, or being outdoors while physically distancing. Students should not visit other residence halls, nor businesses or residences off campus during this step.
Step Two - Students in University housing will have increased access, including visiting all on-campus locations and the surrounding community. However, students must be “back home” in their room by 9 p.m. Step Two is expected to last two weeks, provided public health guidance indicates good compliance and progress.
Step Three - Students in University housing will have full access to University facilities and communities off campus as they do in Step Two, but they must be “back home” in their room by midnight. This step is also expected to last at least two weeks.
Step Four - As in the other steps, students are asked to wear masks, maintain physical distancing, and avoid large gatherings as they continue to have full access to on- and off-campus locations. But different from Step Three, there are no “back home” time constraints during this step.

For students living off campus who may be taking in-person courses and visiting campus facilities, please limit your on-campus interactions if possible. We encourage you to continue to be safe, wear a mask, maintain physical distancing from those not in your household, avoid large gatherings and get tested if you have COVID-19 symptoms or are instructed to seek testing by a public health or medical official. The MTest program is available to all students (http://click.ecommunications2.umn.edu/?qs=6cdadd38d49e3af9e52ef6fc00ecbae480197a5869279d08af2dbdea5e0ac9d97b08c4795ce7fc2faddb82c1239f46f20b8e39ba495df334) regardless of where you live, so please utilize it should you feel sick.

We will also be sharing our plans with officials, business owners, and landlords in the neighborhoods and cities where our campuses are located. We need their partnership to make this a successful semester.
Students, I know this is a lot to ask, especially of the many of you who will be experiencing campus life for the first time. It will be a challenge, but it is worth it. We have such confidence in each of you. Your choices and judgment at each step will play a critical role in allowing us to progress to the final phase, and your work to keep yourself and others safe and healthy will pay off in the opportunity for all students to remain on campus, rather than reverting to distance learning as we did in the spring.

I send you this message with the full conviction that together we can do this and do it well. Our plan allows us to come back, serve our students and our mission, all the while prioritizing health and safety to make our campus environment as safe as the communities in which we exist. We will show our communities, our state, and the country that the University of Minnesota continues to be a leader in COVID-19 research and clinical care, as well as a model for a hybrid approach to teaching this semester. And we will continue to offer the flexibility and options we all need to make the best individual decisions for our health and those around us.

Thank you all for your commitment to a healthy and safe semester. In addition to the plan linked above, remember to visit the Fall 2020 website (http://click.ecommunications2.umn.edu/?qs=6cdadd38d49e3af9344abe2a69a5e4eed03cbbd76e8c1ef13237860a4ceb128ce6d37b06b9ea77f9a44795dc3bc76b92f41832ce378d0316) and watch for additional information to be sent this week specific to your living or learning plans.

With warmest wishes,
Joan Gabel




My money is that the whole thing is blown to hell by September 30.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 01, 2020, 02:22:47 PM
GA hasn't really changed much at all since the grand reopening.  Cases jumped, and then have declined, no change in policies during that curve.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 01, 2020, 02:27:34 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on September 01, 2020, 02:15:49 PM
Hot off the press from Morrill Hall: the Maroon-and-Gold Sunrise Plan (https://drive.google.com/file/d/1rSgDZrHYfvMp0FXvKVJLR_Txr5r6g2wz/view), the plan to resume move-in. The following was sent out a few minutes ago to all students and staff of the University:




My money is that the whole thing is blown to hell by September 30.
Well, yeah.  This plan expects on-campus students to abide by a pretty strict quarantine for 10 days, and a 9 PM curfew for almost the first month.  It also doesn't list out any metrics on what is an "acceptable" number or percentage of cases versus what is "unacceptable" which tells me that like every other school out there, the moment ANY cases occur, they're going to rush to shut it all down again.

But hey, they'll get those in-person tuition dollars while offering only online education, so it's totally okay.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 01, 2020, 03:32:21 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 01, 2020, 02:09:07 PM

A local strip bar had a sign out that said "Clothed until further notice".  There is an area about 2 miles north of us that has 6-7 strip bars, fairly seedy looking.  My liquor store is just to the other side of them. 


so you are forced to visit this area regularly to acquire your liquor?

I see.....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 01, 2020, 03:33:17 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 01, 2020, 02:27:34 PM
Well, yeah.  This plan expects on-campus students to abide by a pretty strict quarantine for 10 days, and a 9 PM curfew for almost the first month.  It also doesn't list out any metrics on what is an "acceptable" number or percentage of cases versus what is "unacceptable" which tells me that like every other school out there, the moment ANY cases occur, they're going to rush to shut it all down again.

But hey, they'll get those in-person tuition dollars while offering only online education, so it's totally okay.

can't really bill for room and board if the students don't move into the dorms for a week or two
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 01, 2020, 03:58:40 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 01, 2020, 03:32:21 PM
so you are forced to visit this area regularly to acquire your liquor?

I see.....
Heh, the wife is usually with me, but I never really liked strip clubs.  We had a guy on our baseball team who, when we traveled, would engage the services of a hooker each night.  I was pretty fascinated by how you even find a hooker.  He had a girlfriend back at home also.  That team always wanted to go to a strip club, I'd tag along on occasion.  It was interesting how the rules changed from state to state, Florida was full nudes as is Georgia, while Ohio has pasties.

The whole experience was odd to me.

My PT went very well, range of motion is excellent.  Just back from the pool.  Life as a retiree ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 01, 2020, 03:59:07 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 01, 2020, 03:33:17 PM
can't really bill for room and board if the students don't move into the dorms for a week or two
Exactly.

Gotta get them in for a few weeks, cash the checks, and then send them home while shrugging their shoulders and saying, "Sorry, as you can tell, we gave it the ol' college try."

The complete lack of transparency on metrics for acceptable limits is the dead giveaway that there's no actual good faith dealing occurring here.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 01, 2020, 05:40:16 PM
This pandemic has been bad obviously, but considering the possibilities we faced back in late March, it has not been as bad as I feared.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 01, 2020, 06:31:17 PM
its getting better each day I hope it continues
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 01, 2020, 06:45:23 PM
I made a lot of money on paper, more than expected, so there is that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 01, 2020, 06:51:37 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 01, 2020, 06:45:23 PM
I made a lot of money on paper, more than expected, so there is that.
a lot of folks did if they paid attention
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 01, 2020, 06:52:09 PM
I was just lucky.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 01, 2020, 07:24:47 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 01, 2020, 06:45:23 PM
I made a lot of money on paper, more than expected, so there is that.
I'm turning cardstock into money...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 01, 2020, 07:27:17 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 01, 2020, 02:09:07 PM

A local strip bar had a sign out that said "Clothed until further notice".  There is an area about 2 miles north of us that has 6-7 strip bars, fairly seedy looking.  My liquor store is just to the other side of them. 
I posted that picture prolly a month back
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 02, 2020, 08:12:36 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 01, 2020, 06:51:37 PM
a lot of folks did if they paid attention
Those who left their holdings alone did very well. Those who panicked lost their ass.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 02, 2020, 08:23:44 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 02, 2020, 08:12:36 AM
Those who left their holdings alone did very well. Those who panicked lost their ass.
Its those who had no holdings when the virus broke but then invested that are doing well also
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 02, 2020, 08:31:07 AM
No doubt. Buying low is always a good thing.

I bought travel-related stocks, and salesforce.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 02, 2020, 08:32:50 AM
7 day average in GA down to 2,049, 5 weeks ago it was over 3,700.

Nothing of substance changed that I can discern.  Mask wearing may be dropping in fact.  It is possible the numbers scared a lot of people into "staying home", but I didn't notice much effect here.

School has started, so we'll see if that has an impact, hard to think it won't really.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 02, 2020, 12:21:23 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 02, 2020, 08:32:50 AM
7 day average in GA down to 2,049, 5 weeks ago it was over 3,700.

Nothing of substance changed that I can discern.  Mask wearing may be dropping in fact.  It is possible the numbers scared a lot of people into "staying home", but I didn't notice much effect here.

School has started, so we'll see if that has an impact, hard to think it won't really.
Our numbers continue trending down in Texas and it's almost certainly an effect from the closing of bars and other risky inside spaces, and people being more vigilant in their behavior.  Mask-wearing is pretty close to 100% in public inside spaces, mandated by municipal and state directives.

Many elementary and secondary schools in Texas are already in session in-person, though none of the major metro areas are yet.  We'll see how that affects the trends in more rural areas  in a week or two.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 02, 2020, 12:25:40 PM
We had no additional closings here over this period that I can recall.  There is no way to enforce any mask mandate other than store by store.

I would have expected the newly reported cases tally to continue to climb here without some intervention.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 02, 2020, 12:33:38 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 02, 2020, 12:25:40 PM
We had no additional closings here over this period that I can recall.  There is no way to enforce any mask mandate other than store by store.

I would have expected the newly reported cases tally to continue to climb here without some intervention.

Why?  I think a lot of people got "scared straight."

My in-laws decided it was okay to engage in risky behavior since things were "opening up."  And then they caught it and became part of the statistical spike.  And now they're staying in and not going anywhere anymore.  

My neighbors two-doors-down did exactly the same thing.  When things opened up, they started meeting friends at restaurants again.  Then they caught it and became part of the spike.  And now they don't go out anymore.

And people I know that were tempted into becoming lax, saw stuff like this happen to their own family and neighbors, and decided they didn't want to risk it, so they started engaging in safer behavior again.

I think the trends in all the states that have reopened, climbed, and then shut down, are pretty similar and pretty easy to explain with the above.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 02, 2020, 12:53:03 PM
Maybe, I am not seeing any change in behaviors, or limitations, around here.  If anything, fewer people are wearing masks.

And if folks were scared, they should start being less scared now, and the numbers should climb back.  I don't expect that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 02, 2020, 01:08:51 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 02, 2020, 12:53:03 PM
Maybe, I am not seeing any change in behaviors, or limitations, around here.  If anything, fewer people are wearing masks.

And if folks were scared, they should start being less scared now, and the numbers should climb back.  I don't expect that.
I do.  I absolutely do.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 02, 2020, 01:09:56 PM
Schools starting up brings in an additional variable that could lead to an increase obviously.

I'm still stuck on Sweden.  

And of course France is seeing an upsurge and schooling started there, in person.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 02, 2020, 01:39:11 PM
I find myself logically being in the same space here as utee. Which quite frankly is application of Occam's Razor. The simplest explanation for a reduction in cases is that peoples' behavior, in the aggregate, has shifted just enough to reduce the spread.

I think that is consistent with what we're seeing on college campuses right now as well. If we had latent immunity and it wasn't behavior, there would be no explanation why those spikes occur every time you bring a bunch of young people together. Because if it's "constant area under the curve", then their poor choices when getting onto campus shouldn't cause spikes, as the transmission should have cut down already.

The "constant area under the curve" hypothesis has emotional allure to it, but there's a part of me that considers it more wishful thinking than anything else. And the reason for that is that I can't find a good enough reason for "why". Unless the number of asymptomatic cases is WILDLY higher than we think, I don't think we're looking at a herd immunity scenario. 

I've seen [and posted a week or two ago] that there may be something I wouldn't call latent "immunity" in the population, because it doesn't seem like it would stop transmission. That's the idea that people who have a stronger immune reaction to other coronavirus variants (common colds, etc) may simply have a quicker and more complete immune response to this virus such that it explains the high degree of asymptomatic infected. However, if that really meant that we've had a lot more people than previously believed who have had this virus, it should have shown up in testing and antibody testing, and I haven't seen much evidence of that. 

The problem is that it's REALLY hard to quantify "changed aggregate behavior". I don't have any way to look at Sweden, for example, and truly measure what proportion of people are still WFH, still social distancing, still wearing masks. I don't know if people are going out more or less than they were 2 months ago. I don't know if people are seeing family/friends more or less than 2 months ago. So we look at Sweden, with their less-restrictive measures, and ask "why" their numbers aren't spiking...

I don't know what is going to happen when kids all start going back to school either. I fear huge spikes. But I hope I'm wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 02, 2020, 01:48:30 PM
What if "our" latent resistance is due to some corona exposure in 1995?

That's a major what if, and I hear what you're saying.  I have wondered if college kids behaved differently when they were at home.  They probably had a tighter circle of exposures at home.

So, we should expect an upsurge in new cases in about two weeks?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 02, 2020, 02:38:02 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 02, 2020, 01:39:11 PM
I find myself logically being in the same space here as utee. Which quite frankly is application of Occam's Razor. The simplest explanation for a reduction in cases is that peoples' behavior, in the aggregate, has shifted just enough to reduce the spread.

I think that is consistent with what we're seeing on college campuses right now as well. If we had latent immunity and it wasn't behavior, there would be no explanation why those spikes occur every time you bring a bunch of young people together. Because if it's "constant area under the curve", then their poor choices when getting onto campus shouldn't cause spikes, as the transmission should have cut down already.

The "constant area under the curve" hypothesis has emotional allure to it, but there's a part of me that considers it more wishful thinking than anything else. And the reason for that is that I can't find a good enough reason for "why". Unless the number of asymptomatic cases is WILDLY higher than we think, I don't think we're looking at a herd immunity scenario.

I've seen [and posted a week or two ago] that there may be something I wouldn't call latent "immunity" in the population, because it doesn't seem like it would stop transmission. That's the idea that people who have a stronger immune reaction to other coronavirus variants (common colds, etc) may simply have a quicker and more complete immune response to this virus such that it explains the high degree of asymptomatic infected. However, if that really meant that we've had a lot more people than previously believed who have had this virus, it should have shown up in testing and antibody testing, and I haven't seen much evidence of that.

The problem is that it's REALLY hard to quantify "changed aggregate behavior". I don't have any way to look at Sweden, for example, and truly measure what proportion of people are still WFH, still social distancing, still wearing masks. I don't know if people are going out more or less than they were 2 months ago. I don't know if people are seeing family/friends more or less than 2 months ago. So we look at Sweden, with their less-restrictive measures, and ask "why" their numbers aren't spiking...

I don't know what is going to happen when kids all start going back to school either. I fear huge spikes. But I hope I'm wrong.

Overall I agree.

But I don't see an inconsistency between the "area under the curve" explanation, and an eventual move toward herd immunity, if you're trying to point out a conflict there?

The "Total area under the curve explanation" actually fits what we're seeing.  Every time we open up too much-- particularly shared indoor spaces in relatively close confines-- the cases start to increase.  In the US, the places like NY that have "beat" it and remain low, still haven't opened up all of those shared interior spaces.  Same thing was true in Europe, until Italy and Spain DID open the bars, and then like clockwork, a few weeks later, cases began to rise.

That's all part of the "area under the curve."  It's the idea that the virus is already out there, and will inevitably spread absent MAJOR behavioral modifications from normal.  Actions of closing bars and wearing masks and avoiding large crowded gatherings only push the peaks out, delay them, but they don't eliminate them.


The only two things that can eliminate the recurring spikes (absent continued major behavioral modifications), are reaching herd immunity naturally, or implementing an effective virus.  Or, of course, some combination of those two things.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 02, 2020, 02:42:59 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 02, 2020, 01:48:30 PM
What if "our" latent resistance is due to some corona exposure in 1995?

That's a major what if, and I hear what you're saying.  I have wondered if college kids behaved differently when they were at home.  They probably had a tighter circle of exposures at home.

So, we should expect an upsurge in new cases in about two weeks?

From college students, absolutely.  We're already seeing it play out.  But I do think it's far more related to activity and behavior outside the classroom.

For elementary, middle, and high school kids?  Maybe not.  Some schools are going back to crowded hallways, but a lot of them have decent physically distant plans in place.  And rotating in-person days with online days to minimize total on-campus population.  So the major question for them, IMO, is what does their after-school and weekend activity look like?  The younger kids are coming home for the most part.  Older kids though, high school kids with cars, they could certainly be engaging in the same sort of direct personal interaction that's getting the college kids in trouble as well.  And that bit has nothing to do with the in-school on-campus environment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 02, 2020, 03:00:19 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 02, 2020, 01:48:30 PM
What if "our" latent resistance is due to some corona exposure in 1995?

That's a major what if, and I hear what you're saying.  I have wondered if college kids behaved differently when they were at home.  They probably had a tighter circle of exposures at home.

So, we should expect an upsurge in new cases in about two weeks?
As far as resistance based on previous corona, I don't think it's resistance to INFECTION, I think it's resistance to symptoms. 

Which means if we're aggressively testing and contact tracing, my thought is that positivity rates would be higher. I would also think it would have shown up in the antibody testing... Although due to antibodies waning over time, I could make an argument that there is a real reason it was missed. Perhaps those people had lower antibodies levels to start and their levels waned below detectability faster. 

But there's still a part of me that thinks none of the numbers we've seen are large enough to explain that we're getting closer to some sort of herd immunity level, and *THAT* is why case numbers spike then decline. 

And yes, I do believe college kids behaved differently. Not that they were necessarily "safe" at home, but regularly hanging out with your close circle of friends is a LOT different than hanging out with 100 people you don't know at a crowded college bar/nightclub, or a college house party or fraternity party. 

Regarding "in two weeks" to which are you referring? Kids going back to school, or something related to the college discussion? I'm not sure what you're asking. 

Quote from: utee94 on September 02, 2020, 02:38:02 PM
Overall I agree.

But I don't see an inconsistency between the "area under the curve" explanation, and an eventual move toward herd immunity, if you're trying to point out a conflict there?

The "Total area under the curve explanation" actually fits what we're seeing.  Every time we open up too much-- particularly shared indoor spaces in relatively close confines-- the cases start to increase.  In the US, the places like NY that have "beat" it and remain low, still haven't opened up all of those shared interior spaces.  Same thing was true in Europe, until Italy and Spain DID open the bars, and then like clockwork, a few weeks later, cases began to rise.

That's all part of the "area under the curve."  It's the idea that the virus is already out there, and will inevitably spread absent MAJOR behavioral modifications from normal.  Actions of closing bars and wearing masks and avoiding large crowded gatherings only push the peaks out, delay them, but they don't eliminate them.

The only two things that can eliminate the recurring spikes (absent continued major behavioral modifications), are reaching herd immunity naturally, or implementing an effective virus.  Or, of course, some combination of those two things.
Cincy will have to say whether what I'm about to say was interpreting his "area under the curve" argument correctly... It has to do with why he continually brings up Sweden, and continually brings up GA cases dropping when he's not seeing any changes to gov't restrictions and perhaps is anecdotally seeing LESS responsible behavior re: dining/masks than he saw a few weeks ago.

Essentially I take his "area under the curve" argument that the spikes we've had in the places we've had are effectively the upper limit, and we were going to hit those spikes whenever restrictions were eased. But that looking at someplace like Sweden, for example, the spike is over and there won't be another. They experienced the virus, it hit hard, and now their numbers are waning because whatever level of latent immunity exists is now protecting people more than their behavior or gov't restriction.

It sounds to me like his argument is that Sweden has already filled up its area under the curve, and there won't be more, regardless of whether they reopen or not. 

My take [and it sounds like yours] on the area under the curve is that the total area under the curve is MUCH larger than what we've experienced. If we were going to fully reopen everything right now, and people actually behaved as if we'd beaten this virus, the case and then death tolls would be staggering. 

Cincy--if I'm completely mischaracterizing you, let me know...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 02, 2020, 03:07:54 PM
Yeah, I am wondering if every society is "doomed" to have X % infections over time.  You can spread them out, but inevitably they will start back up as you reopen.  If you stay semi-open (Sweden), you get all that area up front.  If you get hit and close down and then reopen, you see a two humped beast.

I don't really think this, it's more a hope, but it seems like a possibility.

I have not heard a good explanation for what happened in Sweden other than perhaps that summer has the effect of limiting the impact, in which case Sweden should get hit again in October.

Maybe the number of cases with few or no symptoms if 10x what we see reported.

I'd love to see data from 1000 people rep pop tested for antibodies and current infection.  I think mostly folks with some symptoms get tested today, and folks like me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 02, 2020, 03:18:07 PM
Should we expect an uptick in 2-3 weeks because of school,university openings?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 02, 2020, 03:21:19 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 02, 2020, 03:07:54 PM
Yeah, I am wondering if every society is "doomed" to have X % infections over time.  You can spread them out, but inevitably they will start back up as you reopen.  If you stay semi-open (Sweden), you get all that area up front.  If you get hit and close down and then reopen, you see a two humped beast.

I don't really think this, it's more a hope, but it seems like a possibility.

I have not heard a good explanation for what happened in Sweden other than perhaps that summer has the effect of limiting the impact, in which case Sweden should get hit again in October.

Maybe the number of cases with few or no symptoms if 10x what we see reported.

I'd love to see data from 1000 people rep pop tested for antibodies and current infection.  I think mostly folks with some symptoms get tested today, and folks like me.
Absent a vaccine, the answer IMHO is that eventually every society will have X% infections over time. 

Yeah, I think the entire idea was "flatten the curve", which should have two effects:


The question is what is "X%", and how close are we to it. I think we're far below X% right now.

Even if actual infections were 10x in the US, 60M people, that's still <20% of our nation. That doesn't seem to be enough to meet herd immunity. For Sweden, 10x higher would be ~850K people, which is less than 10% of Sweden's population. 

I.e. if <10% of Sweden's population has been infected, I think there's a heck of a lot more population that would have to get it for them to reach the total area under the curve...

...but at the same time it's hard to explain that a nation which never officially locked down can have enough voluntary compliance with public health suggestions that they can actually end up with the curve they have. So I get your skepticism and your conjecture that we're missing something really important.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 02, 2020, 04:16:02 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 02, 2020, 03:18:07 PM
Should we expect an uptick in 2-3 weeks because of school,university openings?
I do expect an uptick when kids go back to school. 

Not necessarily so much from colleges, because I think that will be much more localized in college towns where students are on campus. While you may see clusters which increase the numbers at colleges, I think that doesn't affect the rest of us nearly as much. 

However, I'm really worried that this "return to school" experiment, whenever it starts, will not last long. Even with everything the schools are doing, even with some parents opting for distance learning, etc. We'll have to see though. I could be wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on September 02, 2020, 04:56:28 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 02, 2020, 04:16:02 PM
I do expect an uptick when kids go back to school.

Not necessarily so much from colleges, because I think that will be much more localized in college towns where students are on campus. While you may see clusters which increase the numbers at colleges, I think that doesn't affect the rest of us nearly as much.

However, I'm really worried that this "return to school" experiment, whenever it starts, will not last long. Even with everything the schools are doing, even with some parents opting for distance learning, etc. We'll have to see though. I could be wrong.
Several epidemiologists have claimed school isn't a big driver. This seems against what I would guess but then, they would seemingly know better than me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 02, 2020, 05:06:07 PM
I was just chatting with two folks at the pool, one from Chicago and one from Phoenix.  the fellow from Chicago never got sick, but people in his office did and he tests very positive for antibodies.  He doesn't even remember being slightly ill.  

I don't know what that means, just a random "stat".  I'd like to "know" what is likely to happen.  Will this continue to abate or kick back up again?

It seems a lot of Europe is kicking back up again.  Sweden is not (yet).  The wife has a close friend there who tells me they are all being pretty sensible at least where she lives.  It would be NICE if "being sensible" is all we need to do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 02, 2020, 05:21:29 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on September 02, 2020, 04:56:28 PM
Several epidemiologists have claimed school isn't a big driver. This seems against what I would guess but then, they would seemingly know better than me
I've seen some of that as well. I think the early evidence in ~March pointed to that. 

But we shut everything down so quickly that I'm not sure if we've got enough evidence to support that. 

I hope they're right. We'll find out shortly. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 02, 2020, 05:38:26 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 02, 2020, 05:21:29 PM
I've seen some of that as well. I think the early evidence in ~March pointed to that.

But we shut everything down so quickly that I'm not sure if we've got enough evidence to support that.

I hope they're right. We'll find out shortly.
They're using some European countries as part of the sample as well.  Some of them came back online during the summer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 02, 2020, 05:58:31 PM
https://www.ajc.com/education/university-of-georgia-sees-major-increase-in-covid-19-cases/TH7W2PWYVFDEPP5IAEV4HFDLH4/ (https://www.ajc.com/education/university-of-georgia-sees-major-increase-in-covid-19-cases/TH7W2PWYVFDEPP5IAEV4HFDLH4/)

Outbreak among students at UGA.

7 day average state wide is 2,003, still dropping.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on September 03, 2020, 01:56:03 AM
I now live in a "red zone" COVID-19 county. I didn't think that would happen in our rural county of about 17,500.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 03, 2020, 06:08:12 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on September 03, 2020, 01:56:03 AM
I now live in a "red zone" COVID-19 county. I didn't think that would happen in our rural county of about 17,500.
well I live in Houston so I'll see your red zone and raise ya
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 03, 2020, 06:36:13 AM
I think rural county red zones TEND to be meat processing facilities, or where their workers reside.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on September 03, 2020, 08:16:17 AM
My rural county is on orange. There is a prison here and they brought in some infected inmates from another prison  and apparently have had an outbreak there. Several employees infected who have spread it in the community.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 03, 2020, 09:35:56 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on September 03, 2020, 01:56:03 AM
I now live in a "red zone" COVID-19 county. I didn't think that would happen in our rural county of about 17,500.
students?

I think I heard the governor say 6 counties?
My county is not one yet.

two small NAIA colleges and one large community college
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 03, 2020, 10:52:31 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on September 03, 2020, 01:56:03 AM
I now live in a "red zone" COVID-19 county. I didn't think that would happen in our rural county of about 17,500.
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 03, 2020, 06:08:12 AM
well I live in Houston so I'll see your red zone and raise ya
Hey, Orange County CA is in the purple tier, which is even worse than red. We're hoping to downgrade to red. 

(Which pisses me off, because we were off the governor's "watch list" prior to him changing to this tier system, and immediately were put back in the most restrictive tier. Kids were supposed to go back to school on Sep 21 and Oct 1 based on the watch list, but the earliest that OC could possibly allow in-person schooling is now Sep 22 and it's likely that school might push back beyond Sep 22.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on September 03, 2020, 11:32:50 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 03, 2020, 06:36:13 AM
I think rural county red zones TEND to be meat processing facilities, or where their workers reside.


Early on they seemed to be the hot spots, but I know a couple of counties in SW MN are red zones because of a campground concert where zero attempts were made to either mind distance or wear masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 03, 2020, 11:34:42 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on September 03, 2020, 11:32:50 AM
Early on they seemed to be the hot spots, but I know a couple of counties in SW MN are red zones because of a campground concert where zero attempts were made to either mind distance or wear masks.

Wait, we're supposed to "mind distance" in addition to "social distance" now?  I don't even know how to do that.  Does this involve telepathy or something????
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 03, 2020, 11:35:41 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on September 03, 2020, 11:32:50 AM
Early on they seemed to be the hot spots, but I know a couple of counties in SW MN are red zones because of a campground concert where zero attempts were made to either mind distance or wear masks.
well its a well known fact that if youre smoking pot youre immune from the virus
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 03, 2020, 11:48:50 AM
Well you might still get it, but you sure won't care.  It's why America has been mostly drunk since March.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 03, 2020, 12:05:34 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 03, 2020, 11:34:42 AM
Wait, we're supposed to "mind distance" in addition to "social distance" now?  I don't even know how to do that.  Does this involve telepathy or something????
Mind being a verb.  There is no noun that cannot be verbed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on September 03, 2020, 08:43:25 PM
Our school district had 8 days of ~50% attendance interspersed with 2 days of distance-learning.  Then this week has been fully distance-learning.  Tuesday we open up fully (minus the kids who have taken the online option).

I expect to see a spike in 15-20 days, at which point we will go back to distance-learning, which we didn't really test before making the decision to open up fully.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 03, 2020, 09:10:50 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on September 03, 2020, 08:43:25 PM
Our school district had 8 days of ~50% attendance interspersed with 2 days of distance-learning.  Then this week has been fully distance-learning.  Tuesday we open up fully (minus the kids who have taken the online option).

I expect to see a spike in 15-20 days, at which point we will go back to distance-learning, which we didn't really test before making the decision to open up fully.
keep us posted CW Im very interested in this
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 04, 2020, 09:31:02 AM
GA reported a one day spike, the first time in weeks that the one day has spiked over the 7 day to any appreciable extent.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 04, 2020, 09:36:31 AM
I don't want to post this in the game weekend stream thread and pollute that with corona, but did anyone catch the S.AL @ USM game last night? Watching the coaching staffs was like a perfect example of "wearing a mask... in theory..."

Mask on. Mask off. Mask under the nose. Mask as a neckwarmer. Then remember you're supposed to be wearing it and putting it back. Mask off in the huddle with all the players (hmm, no social distancing), mask right back on when you're distanced from others on the sideline. Masks off (or under the nose) when going and giving a hug to the opposing coaching staff after the game. 

As I said, I hope that not a single player was contagious with COVID last night, because if a single one was--you've got a superspreader incident. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 04, 2020, 10:14:27 AM
In Europe, most countries are seeing a resurgence, in France it's worse than the original infection rates.  Sweden of course is plodding along stable at low levels.  Denmark is seeing growth.  Spain is pretty bad.  Germany is seeing some increase, but not as much as her neighbors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 04, 2020, 10:45:37 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 04, 2020, 09:36:31 AM
I don't want to post this in the game weekend stream thread and pollute that with corona, but did anyone catch the S.AL @ USM game last night? Watching the coaching staffs was like a perfect example of "wearing a mask... in theory..."

Mask on. Mask off. Mask under the nose. Mask as a neckwarmer. Then remember you're supposed to be wearing it and putting it back. Mask off in the huddle with all the players (hmm, no social distancing), mask right back on when you're distanced from others on the sideline. Masks off (or under the nose) when going and giving a hug to the opposing coaching staff after the game.

As I said, I hope that not a single player was contagious with COVID last night, because if a single one was--you've got a superspreader incident.

These players have been working out together for several months at this point.  They've been with the coaches for over a month.  Most teams have had some infections, weathered them, and gotten their players back after their quarantine period.

As I keep saying, if there's going to be spread among players, it's going to come from behaviors outside the locker room, practice field, and playing field.  

That's not to say that just one player couldn't break the bubble, make a booty call a week ago, get infected, and spread it on the field to a bunch of other players and coaches that are being super-careful.  That's certainly possible, in theory.  But in practice, I don't believe at all that it would be just ONE player, it would be many, from both teams.  I do expect to see infections on teams ramp up as more and more students arrive onto the campuses.  But I don't believe on-field interaction is anywhere close to the largest threat vector faced by any player.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 04, 2020, 10:49:16 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 04, 2020, 10:14:27 AM
In Europe, most countries are seeing a resurgence, in France it's worse than the original infection rates.  Sweden of course is plodding along stable at low levels.  Denmark is seeing growth.  Spain is pretty bad.  Germany is seeing some increase, but not as much as her neighbors.
Total area under the curve.  All the lockdowns have done, is push the peak out to the right.  It's still going to happen.

Leaders need to start making plans for how to live with this virus among us-- forever.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 04, 2020, 10:59:53 AM
Quote from: utee94 on September 04, 2020, 10:49:16 AM


Leaders need to start making plans for how to live with this virus among us-- forever.

This is how stupid we are.  It could be gone in a month if we had an actual shutdown.  But no, we throw up our hands and figure out ways to deal with it forever.

*not you, Utee, us, the collective.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 04, 2020, 11:02:36 AM
I can't see how one month of "total lockdown" means it's gone forever.  Even Hawaii is having a resurgence, small, but still coming back, same with NZ.

Sweden on the other hand ....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 04, 2020, 11:13:36 AM
Many European countries enforced very strict lockdowns.  Their numbers had diminished to almost zero.  And yet now, they're seeing a resurgence.

The total area under the curve isn't changing.  Not for them, not for us, not for anyone.

Only an effective vaccine, or reaching herd immunity (if that's even possible), will stop the spread.

I don't believe we'll ever have an effective vaccine, and the lockdowns are, in reality, effectively delaying the global population from reaching herd immunity, making all of this last longer rather than diminishing its impact.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 04, 2020, 11:17:58 AM
If "we" can keep the health care system from being overwhelmed it would be good, relatively.

The wife and I had elective surgery last month.  That has reopened here at least.

France may need to shut down again, at least a lot of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 04, 2020, 11:20:47 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 04, 2020, 11:17:58 AM
If "we" can keep the health care system from being overwhelmed it would be good, relatively.

The wife and I had elective surgery last month.  That has reopened here at least.

France may need to shut down again, at least a lot of it.

Yeah, there have definitely been benefits to the shutdowns.  They've kept the hospitals from being overwhelmed (in most cases), they've allowed time for docs and scientists to develop better treatment options for severe cases, and they've given the development of a potential vaccine a little breathing room.

But overall, they're just delaying the inevitable, and causing plenty of damage in the meantime.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 04, 2020, 11:22:51 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/key-coronavirus-forecast-predicts-over-410000-total-us-deaths-by-jan-1.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/key-coronavirus-forecast-predicts-over-410000-total-us-deaths-by-jan-1.html)

Not good news, if this happens, at all.

IHME released three projections based on different assumptions: a worst-case scenario, a best-case scenario and a most likely scenario. The most likely scenario estimates that Covid-19 will kill 410,450 people in the U.S. by Jan. 1. The worst-case scenario, which assumes that restrictions and mask directives will ease, projects up to 620,028 people in the U.S. will die by then and the best-case scenario, which assumes universal masking, predicts that 288,380 people in the U.S. will die from Covid-19 in 2020.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Temp430 on September 04, 2020, 11:23:31 AM
My one son at Wisconsin had his only in-person class canceled this week.  Not sure if its for the whole term or not.  My other son at Baylor has a couple in person classes but they're talking about moving them to all on-line.  Both kids were tested before they let them on campus. Both schools are sending them home at Thanksgiving for the duration of the term and finals. UNC is sending their students home again now. People are trying to get back to normal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 04, 2020, 11:51:05 AM
Quote from: utee94 on September 04, 2020, 11:13:36 AM
Only an effective vaccine, or reaching herd immunity (if that's even possible), will stop the spread.

I don't believe we'll ever have an effective vaccine, and the lockdowns are, in reality, effectively delaying the global population from reaching herd immunity, making all of this last longer rather than diminishing its impact.
Oh, we're going to have a vaccine released on Nov 1. 

Conveniently early enough that someone can take the credit and get the political bump from it, but late enough that when we learn it's neither effective nor safe we won't know it until after Nov 3. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 04, 2020, 11:59:15 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 04, 2020, 11:51:05 AM
Oh, we're going to have a vaccine released on Nov 1.

Conveniently early enough that someone can take the credit and get the political bump from it, but late enough that when we learn it's neither effective nor safe we won't know it until after Nov 3.
No doubt!

That's why I always use the qualifier in front. :)

Like I said, I'll eventually get a vaccine shot if one ever comes about-- but I'm gonna go ahead and wait a couple months and let the "kinks" work themselves out. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 04, 2020, 12:02:33 PM
I doubt we'll pick up any kinks in two months.  And the vaccine released early won't be for us anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on September 04, 2020, 12:09:51 PM
Quote
In a departure for the normally tight-lipped health officials, at Thursday's news conference state Director of Infectious Disease Kris Ehresmann noted how one indoor wedding in southwest Minnesota had more guests than allowed (275), an event with no masks that has now produced 56 cases in nine counties.
From yesterday's Rochester Post-Bulletin (https://www.postbulletin.com/newsmd/coronavirus/6646149-1-wedding-275-guests-0-masks-56-COVID-cases-in-9-MN-counties?fbclid=IwAR1OPHrkhuvmCVc310g4351B6scuO63YJWw9Nqc3kf8Gjs_89_pVTnUX4d0)


While this doesn't excuse the conduct of those attending the wedding, IMHO it shows that there may be something to CDawg's idea of latent immunity. Considering the normal conditions of a wedding reception, you would think that everyone there would be pulling positive tests.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 04, 2020, 12:31:07 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on September 04, 2020, 12:09:51 PM
From yesterday's Rochester Post-Bulletin (https://www.postbulletin.com/newsmd/coronavirus/6646149-1-wedding-275-guests-0-masks-56-COVID-cases-in-9-MN-counties?fbclid=IwAR1OPHrkhuvmCVc310g4351B6scuO63YJWw9Nqc3kf8Gjs_89_pVTnUX4d0)


While this doesn't excuse the conduct of those attending the wedding, IMHO it shows that there may be something to CDawg's idea of latent immunity. Considering the normal conditions of a wedding reception, you would think that everyone there would be pulling positive tests.
I wouldn't necessarily say that. 

The fact that they all attended the same wedding doesn't tell you about how many people had personal contact with the 1 or several people who were the vector of infection. This thing is very transmissible, but unless it's a situation where someone is probably on the dance floor at the same time as the contagious person their risk is probably still not huge. 

Although the story does say this as well:


Quote
Ehresmann said health officials believed the number was an undercount, as health officals had come to believe that some guests were not being tested in order to keep the case numbers low, thereby allowing further spread.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 04, 2020, 01:08:33 PM
Quote
...thereby allowing further spread.

This is quite presumptive.  If those potentially infected guests are quarantining, then even if they're not getting tested, they're still not spreading it.

It's innocuous-seeming assertions like this that are so dangerous in our media, all of the assumptions and presumptions built into the reporting of a story, to further an agenda.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 04, 2020, 02:08:50 PM
The latent immunity notion isn't mine.  I'm sure we all hope it's right in some way.  I don't know that it is.  Or, it's possible some of us have some "resistance" due to exposure of a similar CV.  Imperfect resistance, perhaps at times sufficient to knock it down quickly so we have no symptoms.

I talked to a guy at the pool yesterday who has not  been sick, but most of his office was, and he's been tested twice to have "raging antibodies", he said.

If you think Sweden's experience is entirely due to really good distancing and mask wearing there, OK, I think, maybe.  I still say there is something we're all missing, the parts don't fit in my mind.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 04, 2020, 02:31:48 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 04, 2020, 02:08:50 PM


If you think Sweden's experience is entirely due to really good distancing and mask wearing there, OK, I think, maybe.  I still say there is something we're all missing, the parts don't fit in my mind.
It's anecdotal of course, but what do your Swedish friends say about the reality of their countrymen's voluntary efforts at distancing, mask-wearing, etc.  Do THEY believe they're doing a good job of it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 04, 2020, 02:34:21 PM
Yes, they do, it's really just one lady who lives summers on an island.  But she said this back when it was raging in Sweden.

How can they have been being disciplined in April and had a huge outbreak and have done nothing since and have gone quiet, almost?

Being outdoors more?  Being more scared?  No school?

Maybe.  The shift was dramatic.  France shut down, and reduced COVID to baseline almost, and now are headed back to raging, worse than April.

And they just started school.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 04, 2020, 03:00:35 PM
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/08/28/906263926/how-many-coronavirus-cases-are-happening-in-schools-this-tracker-keeps-count?fbclid=IwAR365EFK_l9LSrfuMG3r0ZOP26sbFETyAAYzKb9Ektezf5mErnYAWFtd_D0 (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/08/28/906263926/how-many-coronavirus-cases-are-happening-in-schools-this-tracker-keeps-count?fbclid=IwAR365EFK_l9LSrfuMG3r0ZOP26sbFETyAAYzKb9Ektezf5mErnYAWFtd_D0)

y Aug. 23, when she handed off the project to NEA, she and volunteers working with her had logged over nearly 4,300 cases at more than 1,000 schools, which can be seen on the map above, created by one of the project volunteers.

According to the data she has collected (https://public.tableau.com/profile/jon.w1876?fbclid=IwAR2cW3O_WiyP4QR8dyyaJ0M4RmxhWTTY_VbJYvr4KDqRhlhD0fmvhpYePfk#!/vizhome/COVID-19USSchools/Dashboard1), as of Aug. 23, Florida schools have seen the most cases, followed by Texas and Georgia. (The NEA is in the process of moving Morris' data to its tracker.)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 04, 2020, 03:09:54 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 04, 2020, 01:08:33 PM
This is quite presumptive.  If those potentially infected guests are quarantining, then even if they're not getting tested, they're still not spreading it.

It's innocuous-seeming assertions like this that are so dangerous in our media, all of the assumptions and presumptions built into the reporting of a story, to further an agenda.

utee youre sounding more and more like me every day

better watch out or before too long youre gonna be wearing MAGA hats
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 04, 2020, 03:16:45 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 04, 2020, 01:08:33 PM
This is quite presumptive.  If those potentially infected guests are quarantining, then even if they're not getting tested, they're still not spreading it.

It's innocuous-seeming assertions like this that are so dangerous in our media, all of the assumptions and presumptions built into the reporting of a story, to further an agenda.

What pisses me off is that 56 cases have been "tied to" that wedding. Note that it does NOT say that 56 wedding guests tested positive.

I saw a story a couple months ago that was similar, where a bunch of cases were "tied to" a family get together. I think it was like 18 cases tied to a family party where 28 people attended. That story was at least clear enough that it said, IIRC, that one infected person [the host] transmitted to 7 family members AT the party, and those 7 transmitted to an additional 10 so they were related cases but those additional 10 did not attend the party. 

With this wedding, which is it? Was it 56 wedding guests infected? Or was it say 35 wedding guests infected but they've transmitted it to an additional 21 people? 

Bad journalism IMHO to not be clear on that point. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 04, 2020, 05:02:29 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 04, 2020, 01:08:33 PM
This is quite presumptive.  If those potentially infected guests are quarantining, then even if they're not getting tested, they're still not spreading it.

It's innocuous-seeming assertions like this that are so dangerous in our media, all of the assumptions and presumptions built into the reporting of a story, to further an agenda.

The quote that came right after the quoted "presumptive" clause"

"Of course, failing to acknowledge a problem does not make that problem go away," Ehresmann said, "it just makes it worse .... allowing the virus to spread undetected in the community, which prolongs the outbreak and rolls the dice with lives of people around them."

Ehresmann would be the state Director of Infectious Disease. The clause that's quoted intros that quote, which when read in that order makes sense. Now, you might feel that this epidemiologist has an agenda. But it's not a dangerous part of our media, unless our media is being dangerous by quoting this particular scientist of record and lightly summarizing as an introduction. 

I don't want to be presumptive and ask if you read through the article for the placement of the quote, but the quoted thing is near about the height of innocuous alongside the thing the person said. It probably is redundant, but certianly not a presumption built into reporting to further an agenda. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 04, 2020, 05:23:34 PM
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2252699-covid-19-is-becoming-less-deadly-in-europe-but-we-dont-know-why/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=echobox&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR32YzeFyYJkNjL7PdHXKNSlK8fq3KN-pv-vQzjZH-MN4Ix0PF06YZ4z0rY#Echobox=1598284086 (https://www.newscientist.com/article/2252699-covid-19-is-becoming-less-deadly-in-europe-but-we-dont-know-why/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=echobox&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR32YzeFyYJkNjL7PdHXKNSlK8fq3KN-pv-vQzjZH-MN4Ix0PF06YZ4z0rY#Echobox=1598284086)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 04, 2020, 06:43:51 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/ItK0Cnb.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on September 04, 2020, 07:22:44 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 04, 2020, 01:08:33 PM
This is quite presumptive.  If those potentially infected guests are quarantining, then even if they're not getting tested, they're still not spreading it.

It's innocuous-seeming assertions like this that are so dangerous in our media, all of the assumptions and presumptions built into the reporting of a story, to further an agenda.
Or it could just be lazy reporting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 04, 2020, 08:59:24 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on September 04, 2020, 07:22:44 PM
Or it could just be lazy reporting.
It is a paraphrase of a quote that appears directly under it. It is literally fine reporting. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 05, 2020, 01:52:51 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on September 04, 2020, 05:02:29 PM
The quote that came right after the quoted "presumptive" clause"

"Of course, failing to acknowledge a problem does not make that problem go away," Ehresmann said, "it just makes it worse .... allowing the virus to spread undetected in the community, which prolongs the outbreak and rolls the dice with lives of people around them."

Ehresmann would be the state Director of Infectious Disease. The clause that's quoted intros that quote, which when read in that order makes sense. Now, you might feel that this epidemiologist has an agenda. But it's not a dangerous part of our media, unless our media is being dangerous by quoting this particular scientist of record and lightly summarizing as an introduction.

I don't want to be presumptive and ask if you read through the article for the placement of the quote, but the quoted thing is near about the height of innocuous alongside the thing the person said. It probably is redundant, but certianly not a presumption built into reporting to further an agenda.

Cool.  If we've learned nothing else in the past 6 months (and I certainly hope we have) it's that epidemiologists can have agendas, too.

This is their only time to shine in the sun.

No matter WHO is making it, the implication that people who aren't getting tested are necessarily spreading it, is false.  And this is the implication that is coming through.

So you can defend bad journalism, or bad epidemiologists.  That's your choice, I guess.  Although you COULD choose to defend neither.

If there is evidence that the "test dodgers" are spreading it intentionally-- and let's be clear, that is exactly the implication-- then let's out with it.  Provide the evidence.

Otherwise?

STFU
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 05, 2020, 10:07:57 AM
Quote from: utee94 on September 05, 2020, 01:52:51 AM
Cool.  If we've learned nothing else in the past 6 months (and I certainly hope we have) it's that epidemiologists can have agendas, too.

This is their only time to shine in the sun.

No matter WHO is making it, the implication that people who aren't getting tested are necessarily spreading it, is false.  And this is the implication that is coming through.

So you can defend bad journalism, or bad epidemiologists.  That's your choice, I guess.  Although you COULD choose to defend neither.

If there is evidence that the "test dodgers" are spreading it intentionally-- and let's be clear, that is exactly the implication-- then let's out with it.  Provide the evidence.

Otherwise?

STFU

OK. The story mentions nothing about intentionality. Like nothing at all. In fact, the implication is that it's being done unintentionally and perhaps carelessly. But when we look at things that we disagree with, we very often read intentionality into it (at times I do for sure).

The thing is, there's not much evidence provided that it's bad journalism, since most journalism is propagating information people want to know, often by speaking to experts. I can't speak to the epidemiology. I'd guess they have some better sense of how these things spread, but maybe they're overplaying it. 

I guess I'm defending normalcy against a level of incredulousness that renders most everything "bad." If you look at a story that modestly irks you and apply several layers of feelings to a particular phrase (the reading that it MUST be saying these people are necessarily spreading it, the argument that high ranking doctors are doing this all for the attention), you'll fall into a mud pit that everything is bad. And that's a big part of our world now, honing in on details and complaining over them. And in the end, this is to a degree mundane. If it didn't mention people spreading it unknowingly, would it suddenly fix the story? Or would that incredulousness shift elsewhere. 

Now, there's a fairly good macro argument why this is bad. It's obviously narrative-ising this particular outbreak in a way that hits the feels. The state health whatever it is served it up and the reporter propagated it. There's a solid argument there's a certain cheapness, sort of the opposite of the meat packing thing, where the meatpacking outbreak made it sound like someone else's problem, this tries too much to make it sound like something that could happen to you. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on September 05, 2020, 03:08:31 PM
Our statewide cases and deaths numbers continue to climb, and we haven't even felt whatever effect we will feel from schools reopening.  Or Labor Day.

I suspect that by late September-early October, we'll be going back to distance-learning.  After some expendable older teachers with co-morbidities come down with COVID and die.  Hey, that'll be a good thing for the Teacher Retirement Fund!

Is the recent CDC (?) estimate of deaths by the end of the year posted here?  IIRC, the high-end number was over 600,000, the "most-likely" number was right at 400,000, and the low-end number was well under 300,000.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 05, 2020, 03:27:21 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on September 05, 2020, 03:08:31 PM
Our statewide cases and deaths numbers continue to climb, and we haven't even felt whatever effect we will feel from schools reopening.

I suspect that by late September-early October, we'll be going back to distance-learning.  After some expendable older teachers with co-morbidities come down with COVID and die.  Hey, that'll be a good thing for the Teacher Retirement Fund!

Is the recent CDC (?) estimate of deaths by the end of the year posted here?  IIRC, the high-end number was over 600,000, the "most-likely" number was right at 400,000, and the low-end number was well under 300,000.
right now if nothing changes we are trending toward between 280,000 and 310,000

I dont think we will see anywhere near 400,000

just my opinion CW 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on September 05, 2020, 03:36:41 PM
Just reporting what I read, 320.

400,000, which was based on current measures staying in place, seemed high to me too.  "Seemed" being the operative word.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 05, 2020, 03:53:07 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on September 05, 2020, 03:36:41 PM
Just reporting what I read, 320.

400,000, which was based on current measures staying in place, seemed high to me too.  "Seemed" being the operative word.
simple math there are 116 days left in year

we are currently averaging 1,200 deaths a day and trending down

current deaths = 193,000

116 x 1200 = 139,200

139,200 + 193,000 = 332,000

again we are trending down so Im guessing the real number is below 300,000 and no where near 400,000

just my opinion
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 05, 2020, 03:55:27 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on September 05, 2020, 03:08:31 PM

Is the recent CDC (?) estimate of deaths by the end of the year posted here?  IIRC, the high-end number was over 600,000, the "most-likely" number was right at 400,000, and the low-end number was well under 300,000.
That was the IHME model.

Agree that 400K seems high. At 1K/day it only gets us in the 300K range. Not sure why they think it will increase. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 05, 2020, 03:58:28 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 05, 2020, 03:53:07 PM


again we are trending down so Im guessing the real number is below 300,000 and no where near 400,000

just my opinion
Yeah, but models made by smart people realize that a recent trend of a decrease will very likely not last, as the history of our cases have shown....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 05, 2020, 04:03:19 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 05, 2020, 03:58:28 PM
Yeah, but models made by smart people realize that a recent trend of a decrease will very likely not last, as the history of our cases have shown....
well we should soon see with school openings 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on September 05, 2020, 04:15:47 PM
Yep.  Labor Day get-togethers and school re-openings.  If we don't see a spike from that, we're probably not going to see one at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on September 06, 2020, 09:16:52 AM
https://twitter.com/maestro_rayo/status/1301603199489638400?s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 06, 2020, 09:20:50 AM
A thing about deaths is we appear to be getting better at treating extreme cases.  The percentage of deaths of those who contract it are dropping, in the US, and I think everywhere.  

A Labor Day/school BUMP might not be the only bump as winter hits and folks stay inside more often  We could have a bad winter confluence of COVID and flu.

We all hope not, but folks have noted that possibility.  We're mostly out and about now.  I hope if number start to go back up folks will take heed and modify behaviors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 06, 2020, 09:44:10 AM
https://www.kshb.com/news/coronavirus/research-raises-concerns-of-covid-19-link-to-myocarditis (https://www.kshb.com/news/coronavirus/research-raises-concerns-of-covid-19-link-to-myocarditis)

IF 15% of football players have myocarditis, it's a huge deal.  If it's 5% it's a huge deal.  Even 1% is a major concern.

Anything 5% or up should cause the season to be cancelled in my view.  This hits even asympotomatic individuals.  At minimum, each players who contracts COVID should be tested thoroughly for this issue.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 06, 2020, 09:52:37 AM
I wish we had a breakdown of daily positives of mild sever and showing no signs

If we tracked that I bet we would find the sever category getting smaller over time
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on September 06, 2020, 10:34:41 AM
Welp, WV released its numbers last night and our county is one of 9 in the state in the orange/red so the kids have to start out with virtual learning this week.  My kids were bummed. I was bummed, too.  

Hope next week is better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 06, 2020, 10:38:23 AM
Quote from: Kris60 on September 06, 2020, 10:34:41 AM
Welp, WV released its numbers last night and our county is one of 9 in the state in the orange/red so the kids have to start out with virtual learning this week.  My kids were bummed. I was bummed, too. 

Hope next week is better.
lucky you
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 06, 2020, 10:41:15 AM
GA MAY be leveling at about 2,000 cases per day, and possibly that is prelude to another rise.  Hospitalizations are declining still.

Maybe in 2-3 weeks we'll have a better read on some of this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 06, 2020, 11:08:22 AM
Wife said based on her weekly grocery run that it looks like people are stocking up for a weekend of entertaining. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 06, 2020, 02:20:07 PM
Maybe this is what makes the U.S. the best country - we don't let pandemics interrupt our traditional holiday activities.  WE'RE #1!  WE'RE REEEEALLY SMART!  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 06, 2020, 02:44:35 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 06, 2020, 02:20:07 PM
Maybe this is what makes the U.S. the best country - we don't let pandemics interrupt our traditional holiday activities.  WE'RE #1!  WE'RE REEEEALLY SMART! 
like it or not its the American way OAM and always will be

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 06, 2020, 02:51:53 PM
I guess that's why different societies tend to take turns at the top and can't stay there for more than a century.  Ignorance of your (our) own stubbornness is one thing, but taking pride in it is ultimately damning.  

tradition > planned evolution = downfall
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 06, 2020, 02:54:22 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 06, 2020, 02:51:53 PM
I guess that's why different societies tend to take turns at the top and can't stay there for more than a century.  Ignorance of your (our) own stubbornness is one thing, but taking pride in it is ultimately damning. 

tradition > planned evolution = downfall
thanks for the uplifting words

stay frosty
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 06, 2020, 02:56:42 PM
It's like you genuinely value lying....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 06, 2020, 02:58:45 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 06, 2020, 02:20:07 PM
Maybe this is what makes the U.S. the best country - we don't let pandemics interrupt our traditional holiday activities.  WE'RE #1!  WE'RE REEEEALLY SMART! 
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 06, 2020, 02:51:53 PM
I guess that's why different societies tend to take turns at the top and can't stay there for more than a century.  Ignorance of your (our) own stubbornness is one thing, but taking pride in it is ultimately damning. 

tradition > planned evolution = downfall
OAM you do realize that some of this response is not "American" but is human, right? We're not the only society chafing at the lockdowns and restrictions. 

The reason things are now getting bad in Spain and France again is because people got loose. There was recently a violent protest in Australia over COVID lockdowns. 

And a lot of it is driven by young people, who are ignorant and foolhardy across the globe. 

Quote from: longhorn320 on September 06, 2020, 02:44:35 PM
like it or not its the American way OAM and always will be
It's not really helpful to look at people who are behaving recklessly and respond with "F yeah! 'Murica!"

While I like that Americans are more skeptical of handing over our liberties in the face of government restrictions, sometimes it's just being dumb. 

I hate that the government tells me to wear a mask. But I'm not going to refuse to wear a mask out of spite. Because what's the value in being right, but dead? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 06, 2020, 03:18:17 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 06, 2020, 02:58:45 PM
OAM you do realize that some of this response is not "American" but is human, right? We're not the only society chafing at the lockdowns and restrictions.

The reason things are now getting bad in Spain and France again is because people got loose. There was recently a violent protest in Australia over COVID lockdowns.

And a lot of it is driven by young people, who are ignorant and foolhardy across the globe.
It's not really helpful to look at people who are behaving recklessly and respond with "F yeah! 'Murica!"

While I like that Americans are more skeptical of handing over our liberties in the face of government restrictions, sometimes it's just being dumb.

I hate that the government tells me to wear a mask. But I'm not going to refuse to wear a mask out of spite. Because what's the value in being right, but dead?


For someone who openly roots for humanity to get wiped out by an asteroid, your take on all of this is somewhat unexpected. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 06, 2020, 03:29:59 PM
ok am I missing something

did something happen to cause OAM to go postal

was there some event that happened
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 06, 2020, 03:30:13 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 06, 2020, 02:20:07 PM
Maybe this is what makes the U.S. the best country - we don't let pandemics interrupt our traditional holiday activities.  WE'RE #1!  WE'RE REEEEALLY SMART! 
China anxiously awaits your arrival. They probably wouldn't let you sell your cards though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 06, 2020, 03:35:33 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 06, 2020, 03:29:59 PM
ok am I missing something

did something happen to cause OAM to go postal

was there some event that happened


He's been like this the whole time. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 06, 2020, 03:42:24 PM
not sure what you guys think I meant by saying its the American way

What I meant is that its the American way to keep a cool head and solve problems

This country has overcome big problems before and it will solve this one as well

it does not do anyone any good to sit around and whine and moan about our problem

either be part of the solution or get out of the way and let the American people solve it

without you but either way this problem will be solved

yes I know there are some eggheads out there with little reguard for doing the right thing

all societies have these types of people but its not time to throw up your hands and whine and moan

grow a pair and man up







Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 06, 2020, 04:38:25 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 06, 2020, 03:42:24 PM
not sure what you guys think I meant by saying its the American way

What I meant is that its the American way to keep a cool head and solve problems

This country has overcome big problems before and it will solve this one as well

it does not do anyone any good to sit around and whine and moan about our problem

either be part of the solution or get out of the way and let the American people solve it

without you but either way this problem will be solved

yes I know there are some eggheads out there with little reguard for doing the right thing

all societies have these types of people but its not time to throw up your hands and whine and moan

grow a pair and man up
Based on the context, I didn't get that from your response.

I was lamenting the fact that the evidence of what my wife saw at the grocery store was that people were dealing with a worldwide pandemic by, apparently, having barbecues with all their friends.

OAM, as usual, threw gasoline on that and amplified it.

I took your response to be cheering on the people having parties as if being stupid in the face of a pandemic was the American way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 06, 2020, 04:42:41 PM
I think it possible families are throwing parties, perhaps with family more than neighbors?  Dunno.  

The next three weeks will either show another upsurge, or just a continuation of previous trends (duh).  I'm interested to see what happens.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on September 06, 2020, 04:57:12 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 06, 2020, 04:38:25 PM
Based on the context, I didn't get that from your response.

I was lamenting the fact that the evidence of what my wife saw at the grocery store was that people were dealing with a worldwide pandemic by, apparently, having barbecues with all their friends.

OAM, as usual, threw gasoline on that and amplified it.

I took your response to be cheering on the people having parties as if being stupid in the face of a pandemic was the American way.
A couple things there. You are making assumptions based on what your wife told you she saw at the store.  I went to a get together yesterday for my nephew’s 18th birthday.  There were a total of 10 people there, including my family of four.

Does that meet the definition of “stupid?”  If it does, when is the appropriate time to do that so that it wouldn’t?  I’m sure there were some people who got together with family and friends this weekend.  Maybe they took extra precautions. Maybe they didn’t.

You posted a while back about hosting a dinner party for a sick friend. Was that stupid or was it something that was important enough that you thought you should do it?

I think most people are trying to strike a balance between being cautious and stopping their lives.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 06, 2020, 04:58:50 PM
Yeah, a cookout for ten would look like a large cart I think, and perhaps not be some catastrophe.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 06, 2020, 05:19:38 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on September 06, 2020, 04:57:12 PM
You posted a while back about hosting a dinner party for a sick friend. Was that stupid or was it something that was important enough that you thought you should do it?
Bit of both, honestly. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 06, 2020, 05:25:59 PM
it just gets a little tiresome being preached to every day by OAM about how much the country sucks

how nobody knows anything cept him

OAM lives in sucktown USA

in fact I think hes the Mayor

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 06, 2020, 05:31:11 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on September 06, 2020, 04:57:12 PM
I think most people are trying to strike a balance between being cautious and stopping their lives.
Well put
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on September 06, 2020, 09:43:57 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 06, 2020, 05:25:59 PM
it just gets a little tiresome being preached to every day by OAM about how much the country sucks

how nobody knows anything cept him

OAM lives in sucktown USA

in fact I think hes the Mayor


My beef is the people who are hell bent one way or another and can’t fathom anyone having a different attitude.  The impression I get from OAM is that he pulled the blinds 6 months ago and has only ventured outside when he has absolutely had to. Ok, not the way I would approach it but I can appreciate wanting to be extra cautious. I don’t know his health history. Don’t know who he socializes with that might be at risk.

On the other end of the spectrum is this mom whose kids go to school with my kids. She thinks anyone who remotely changes their routine for this virus is living their life in fear.  She was pissing my wife off so often with her Facebook posts she finally blocked her (or whatever you do to not see someone’s posts).

What drives me crazy about both of them is the black and white way they look at it. You are either in lock step with their thinking or you are wrong. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 06, 2020, 11:53:18 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 06, 2020, 02:58:45 PM
OAM you do realize that some of this response is not "American" but is human, right? We're not the only society chafing at the lockdowns and restrictions.

The reason things are now getting bad in Spain and France again is because people got loose. There was recently a violent protest in Australia over COVID lockdowns.

And a lot of it is driven by young people, who are ignorant and foolhardy across the globe.
It's not really helpful to look at people who are behaving recklessly and respond with "F yeah! 'Murica!"

While I like that Americans are more skeptical of handing over our liberties in the face of government restrictions, sometimes it's just being dumb.

I hate that the government tells me to wear a mask. But I'm not going to refuse to wear a mask out of spite. Because what's the value in being right, but dead?
You post this and get likes, I post something synonymous and my sanity is questioned.  Cool.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on September 07, 2020, 12:13:47 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 06, 2020, 11:53:18 PM
You post this and get likes, I post something synonymous and my sanity is questioned.  Cool.
Bwarb's posts are respectful to--or least simulate respect for--those with whom he is disagreeing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 07, 2020, 01:19:56 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on September 07, 2020, 12:13:47 AM
Bwarb's posts are respectful to--or least simulate respect for--those with whom he is disagreeing.
 Right, the big, tough guys who want to have a boxing match with Covid-19 need to be pandered to and get hurt feelings.  
Got it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 07, 2020, 01:22:22 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 06, 2020, 05:25:59 PM
it just gets a little tiresome being preached to every day by OAM about how much the country sucks

how nobody knows anything cept him

OAM lives in sucktown USA

in fact I think hes the Mayor


Again, you're the one equating "not being the absolute best, thanks to the baby Jesus bringing down the Constitution on stone tablets from on-high" to "sucktown".  


That's on you.  


And yes, if the average American were smarter, we'd have fewer deaths from this virus.  Another statement that'll mark me a radical, but that I find perfectly ho-hum and obvious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 07, 2020, 01:28:21 AM
Here's OAM:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfE93xON8jk (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfE93xON8jk)

It's great - breaking character, crying-laughing, etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on September 07, 2020, 01:38:58 AM
Flies.  Honey.  Vinegar.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 07, 2020, 01:42:54 AM
Adult humans.  Honesty.  Reality.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 07, 2020, 06:31:11 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 07, 2020, 01:22:22 AM
And yes, if the average American were smarter, we'd have fewer deaths from this virus.  Another statement that'll mark me a radical, but that I find perfectly ho-hum and obvious.
The average American's intelligence is not higher nor lower than the average in say Germany or Sweden.

Some Asian countries are a bit higher.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 07, 2020, 09:48:44 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 07, 2020, 01:22:22 AM
Again, you're the one equating "not being the absolute best, thanks to the baby Jesus bringing down the Constitution on stone tablets from on-high" to "sucktown". 


That's on you. 


And yes, if the average American were smarter, we'd have fewer deaths from this virus.  Another statement that'll mark me a radical, but that I find perfectly ho-hum and obvious.
Is the guy who sentenced elderly people to death in NY smarter than the average American? That alone counts for almost 5% of the deaths in this entire country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 07, 2020, 10:52:24 AM
I've been around some "well educated" people in my time, and it's interesting how many look down on your "average American".  There are exceptions, I tended to like those folks better.  I figure if a person feels some need to look down on another without good reason, maybe they aren't really where they think they are.

Nobody around here of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 07, 2020, 10:53:16 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 07, 2020, 06:31:11 AM
The average American's intelligence is not higher nor lower than the average in say Germany or Sweden.

Some Asian countries are a bit higher.


It doesn't take IQ points to listen to experts or act in a selfless manner.  Does changing it to "acting smarter" fix it for you?  Are we going to nitpick semantics here?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 07, 2020, 11:02:31 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 07, 2020, 10:52:24 AM
I've been around some "well educated" people in my time, and it's interesting how many look down on your "average American".  There are exceptions, I tended to like those folks better.  I figure if a person feels some need to look down on another without good reason, maybe they aren't really where they think they are.

Nobody around here of course.
The masses, the collective - are quite limited.  That's why things progress so slowly.  And when I say limited, it's not even about intelligence - it's often about egocentrism and taking pride in their worst, most arbitrary aspects.

I took a peek at a FB group this morning, of my dad's home town.  One of hundreds of tiny, insignificant GA towns with no future, where the average age is probably 60.  The newest post is a simple photo of the big, ornate courthouse and the 2 comments under it are:
1 - old glory should be bigger
2 - we have the most beautiful courthouse

Now, of course, this is not something to make a big deal about, but look at it.  One is a complaint that the flag should be bigger.  Okay...why?  Arbitrary.  Fine, who cares, right?
Then we have hyperbole - the courthouse looks exactly like hundreds of others sprinkled throughout the rural south.  It's no more or less beautiful than any other.  

But these people took the time to post those thoughts.  I tend to forget that the world is full of people who do that.  And yes, it's absolutely harmless when it's a silly FB post...but those same people carry such arbitrary and egocentric ideas into more important things like raising children and the voting booth.  And that's where it's fair to be critical OR at least point out that it's not great for the good of the collective.




Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 07, 2020, 11:05:01 AM
In other words, I'm not a fan of echo chambers.

Exampe:
"Remember this thing from the past?  Boy, they don't build 'em like that anymore"
Comments:
"Mmm hmm"
"Yup"
"Amen"
"Amen"
"Amen"

.
.
.

What's the point?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 07, 2020, 11:10:24 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 07, 2020, 11:02:31 AM
And yes, it's absolutely harmless when it's a silly FB post...but those same people carry such arbitrary and egocentric ideas into more important things like raising children and the voting booth.  And that's where it's fair to be critical OR at least point out that it's not great for the good of the collective.
So, it's harmless.  But we should be critical of it?  It's not good for the collective?  I'm lost.

Resistance is futile.  You will be assimilated.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 07, 2020, 11:17:43 AM
GA reported its lowest new cases count in a long time (June 27), but it is a Monday.

1,651 new cases reported.  Hopefully it continues to fall, but I am not predicting that.  I'm not predicting much of anything.

France has surged above where it was before the shutdown in new cases.  And, they restarted school just now.  Will they shut down again?  They did limit bars.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 07, 2020, 12:14:29 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 07, 2020, 11:02:31 AM
but those same people carry such arbitrary and egocentric ideas into more important things like raising children and the voting booth.  And that's where it's fair to be critical OR at least point out that it's not great for the good of the collective.





not to worry OAM they do have political ideas and they will vote
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 07, 2020, 12:25:30 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 07, 2020, 10:52:24 AM
Nobody around here of course.
Well Played
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 07, 2020, 12:34:08 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 06, 2020, 11:53:18 PM
You post this and get likes, I post something synonymous and my sanity is questioned.  Cool.
My friend, when you come swinging, you get swung back on. And you very often come swinging. 

Some folks come swinging and they get agreed with or kinda passed over. But often the get swung back on. And you sir swing hard. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 07, 2020, 12:35:36 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on September 06, 2020, 10:34:41 AM
Welp, WV released its numbers last night and our county is one of 9 in the state in the orange/red so the kids have to start out with virtual learning this week.  My kids were bummed. I was bummed, too. 

Hope next week is better.
Late on this, but sorry my friend. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 07, 2020, 12:38:49 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 07, 2020, 10:52:24 AM
I've been around some "well educated" people in my time, and it's interesting how many look down on your "average American".  There are exceptions, I tended to like those folks better.  I figure if a person feels some need to look down on another without good reason, maybe they aren't really where they think they are.

Nobody around here of course.
The thing of it is, I'm sure a lot of the people that are being looked down on probably look down on the well-educated or on someone else. I feel like much of the pandemic discussion at large has been people looking down on one another. 

Might just be the human condition to feel very right about the way you do things, regardless of how right you are. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 07, 2020, 01:59:44 PM
Running down or diminishing someone else is the surest way to try and feel better about yourself.

I suspect we're all guilty.

Florida sux.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 07, 2020, 03:05:00 PM
Florida is looking better and better. % positives are way down from just a month ago. This is good timing, because we are leaving 2 weeks from today. Soon will be the time when you do not have to be inside all the time. I suspect we will see a big downturn in the Fall. Yesterday was the fewest cases reported in a day since about 3 months. Almost 1/4 of all residents have been tested.

Interestingly enough, Kenosha County is seeing a bit of a spike now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 07, 2020, 03:09:30 PM
One theory is the school and Labor Day will cause a rise.  Another is being inside more will cause a rise.  We all hope not.  France is not looking good at all.

Area under the curve?

Has any noticed what happened in Sweden?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 07, 2020, 03:13:37 PM
The little bar next to us is PACKED, and loud right now, no distancing, folks standing around outside with drinks chatting waiting to get seated.  The tables are as close together as they ever were, and they now have seating outside in the parking lot.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 07, 2020, 03:14:34 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 07, 2020, 03:05:00 PM
Florida is looking better and better. % positives are way down from just a month ago. This is good timing, because we are leaving 2 weeks from today. Soon will be the time when you do not have to be inside all the time. I suspect we will see a big downturn in the Fall. Yesterday was the fewest cases reported in a day since about 3 months. Almost 1/4 of all residents have been tested.

Interestingly enough, Kenosha County is seeing a bit of a spike now.
This is where I make a joke that Florida's high concentration of older folks will slightly blunt the burst of school-related cases. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 07, 2020, 03:15:07 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 07, 2020, 03:13:37 PM
The little bar next to us is PACKED, and loud right now, no distancing, folks standing around outside with drinks chatting waiting to get seated.  The tables are as close together as they ever were, and they now have seating outside in the parking lot.


Is that the one we talked about with the totchos on the menu?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 07, 2020, 03:19:33 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on September 07, 2020, 03:14:34 PM
This is where I make a joke that Florida's high concentration of older folks will slightly blunt the burst of school-related cases.
Hospitalizations are way down. Deaths are way down.

I'm not at all in favor of ruling out another spike, but I'm also very optimistic that the worst is behind us down there.

Of course, I'm the guy that thinks half or more of us have had this thing already.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 07, 2020, 03:32:14 PM
The Nook, Home of the Totcho.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 07, 2020, 04:23:35 PM
Georgia posted such a low number of new cases today that I figure it's Sunday/Labor Day/etc.  It would be great if it's real, but it was 608.

Hospital use continues to drop steadily, which is of course good news.

France is not looking good at all.  Sweden on the other hand ....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 07, 2020, 04:47:15 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 07, 2020, 03:09:30 PM
One theory is the school and Labor Day will cause a rise.  Another is being inside more will cause a rise.  We all hope not.  France is not looking good at all.

Area under the curve?

Has any noticed what happened in Sweden?
Jesus H. Christ.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 07, 2020, 04:48:14 PM
I'd scream, "so move to Sweden!"  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 07, 2020, 06:52:45 PM
It's a sure fire way to get someone here incensed, comically incensed. 


And, in addition, it's a fascinating data point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 07, 2020, 07:02:20 PM
Everywhere I go the only people I see anywhere with no mask on are young people and when I say young I mean they appear to be in the 16 to 25-year-old range.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 07, 2020, 08:15:42 PM
I like the Swedish Bikini Team.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on September 07, 2020, 10:28:48 PM
We discovered today that we've been undercounting COVID cases all along by not counting the positives from antigen tests.  We got a directive from CDC to start doing it the right way.

I have been unimpressed with how our governor has handled this.  He has refused to issue a statewide mandate on mask-wearing and, following his lead, the state school board declined to issue any mandates for mask-wearing in the public schools despite the strong case made by the state superintendent of schools.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 05:35:07 AM
https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/ (https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/)

This is from a month ago.  Would be great if true, but of course may not be true.  

Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought – update
Posted on July 27, 2020 (https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/) by niclewis (https://judithcurry.com/author/niclewis/) | 810 Comments (https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/#comments)
By Nic Lewis
I showed in my May 10th article Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought (https://www.nicholaslewis.org/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought/) that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and in the social-connectivity related infectivity of individuals would reduce, in my view probably very substantially, the herd immunity threshold (HIT), beyond which an epidemic goes into retreat. I opined, based on my modelling, that the HIT probably lay somewhere between 7% and 24%, and that evidence from Stockholm County suggested it was around 17% there, and had been reached. Mounting evidence supports my reasoning.[1] (https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/#_edn1)


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 05:44:39 AM
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200813/swedens-no-lockdown-policy-didnt-achieve-herd-immunity (https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200813/swedens-no-lockdown-policy-didnt-achieve-herd-immunity)


 (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html)
Covid-19: What if 'Herd Immunity' Is Closer Than Scientists ...
 (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html)
 (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html)


Aug 17, 2020 - In what may be the world's most important math puzzle, researchers are trying to figure out how many people in a community must be immune before the ...

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2769704 (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2769704)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 05:55:37 AM
https://reason.com/2020/09/02/is-swedens-covid-19-policy-relatively-rational-or-calamitous/ (https://reason.com/2020/09/02/is-swedens-covid-19-policy-relatively-rational-or-calamitous/)

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-52757471 (https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-52757471)

Coronavirus: Per capita death rate in Sweden 'very high'

New data suggests that Sweden might have one of the highest Covid-19 deaths-per-capita rate in Europe.
Tsemaye Opubor, a journalist based in Stockholm, says the number of deaths from the coronavirus are "really high" and could "perhaps be attributed to age".




I'm still amazed at the radically different points of view on this virus and its impact on different countries.  The top article notes that their death rate is about that of the US and below that of several EU countries (not its neighbors), the second claims the death rate is "very high", which is true if you used Denmark as a comparator.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 11:25:54 AM
https://gizmodo.com/coronavirus-antibodies-can-last-at-least-four-months-l-1844933434?utm_campaign=Gizmodo&utm_content=&utm_medium=SocialMarketing&utm_source=twitter&fbclid=IwAR3V7OeToGbXvje-o5xwatC_Yi6sfuWLZFfV3LNaiUAzgGFauNLFixPz4h0 (https://gizmodo.com/coronavirus-antibodies-can-last-at-least-four-months-l-1844933434?utm_campaign=Gizmodo&utm_content=&utm_medium=SocialMarketing&utm_source=twitter&fbclid=IwAR3V7OeToGbXvje-o5xwatC_Yi6sfuWLZFfV3LNaiUAzgGFauNLFixPz4h0)


Some possible fairly good news, relatively speaking.

“Our results indicate that antiviral antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 did not decline within 4 months after diagnosis,” the authors wrote.
(https://gizmodo.com/latest-coronavirus-science-hopeful-evidence-for-longer-1844422365)


(https://gizmodo.com/latest-coronavirus-science-hopeful-evidence-for-longer-1844422365)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 08, 2020, 12:20:25 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 05:35:07 AM
https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/ (https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/)

This is from a month ago.  Would be great if true, but of course may not be true. 

Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought – update
Posted on July 27, 2020 (https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/) by niclewis (https://judithcurry.com/author/niclewis/) | 810 Comments (https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/#comments)
By Nic Lewis
I showed in my May 10th article Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought (https://www.nicholaslewis.org/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought/) that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and in the social-connectivity related infectivity of individuals would reduce, in my view probably very substantially, the herd immunity threshold (HIT), beyond which an epidemic goes into retreat. I opined, based on my modelling, that the HIT probably lay somewhere between 7% and 24%, and that evidence from Stockholm County suggested it was around 17% there, and had been reached. Mounting evidence supports my reasoning.[1] (https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/#_edn1)



I assume this was from Sweden
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on September 08, 2020, 01:49:38 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 05:35:07 AM
https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/ (https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/)

This is from a month ago.  Would be great if true, but of course may not be true. 

Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought – update
Posted on July 27, 2020 (https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/) by niclewis (https://judithcurry.com/author/niclewis/) | 810 Comments (https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/#comments)
By Nic Lewis
I showed in my May 10th article Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought (https://www.nicholaslewis.org/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought/) that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and in the social-connectivity related infectivity of individuals would reduce, in my view probably very substantially, the herd immunity threshold (HIT), beyond which an epidemic goes into retreat. I opined, based on my modelling, that the HIT probably lay somewhere between 7% and 24%, and that evidence from Stockholm County suggested it was around 17% there, and had been reached. Mounting evidence supports my reasoning.[1] (https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/#_edn1)



I find the first sentence in that article a bit hard to follow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 08, 2020, 01:53:49 PM
has anyone done a study on how the folks who got a flu shot last year fared with the corona virus

stats like % who got it compared with entire population

if they got it was it generally more or less sever then the norm

just wondered
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 08, 2020, 02:06:26 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 08, 2020, 01:53:49 PM
has anyone done a study on how the folks who got a flu shot last year fared with the corona virus

stats like % who got it compared with entire population

if they got it was it generally more or less sever then the norm

just wondered
I don't think it would have any effect, actually. Influenza is a completely different class of virus to the coronavirus. 

I think some of the thought is that people who have had exposure to other viruses in the coronavirus family (some variants of the common cold are included) may have a better immune response to fight COVID-19. 

But influenza is not related at all. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 08, 2020, 02:33:16 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 08, 2020, 02:06:26 PM
I don't think it would have any effect, actually. Influenza is a completely different class of virus to the coronavirus.

I think some of the thought is that people who have had exposure to other viruses in the coronavirus family (some variants of the common cold are included) may have a better immune response to fight COVID-19.

But influenza is not related at all.
while your opinion means a lot to me it would be interesting to see a study on this

What if the positive rate was half as much or twice as much 

same thing about deaths
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 08, 2020, 02:59:29 PM
you really want to see another study?

by who?  someone leaning left or right?

how about an anonymous expert? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 08, 2020, 03:26:00 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 08, 2020, 02:59:29 PM
you really want to see another study?

by who?  someone leaning left or right?

how about an anonymous expert?
nope the dems have all those anonymous sources tied up
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 08, 2020, 03:30:15 PM
I'm just an armchair epidemiologist. 

But I'm going to assume that the experts would be or are studying it if there is any relevance. 

If there's not (because they know that influenza and COVID are completely different virus families), then so be it. 

But with all the studies being done, I would state the absence of any studies on this as evidence that there's no relationship. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 08, 2020, 03:35:14 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 08, 2020, 03:30:15 PM
I'm just an armchair epidemiologist.

But I'm going to assume that the experts would be or are studying it if there is any relevance.

If there's not (because they know that influenza and COVID are completely different virus families), then so be it.

But with all the studies being done, I would state the absence of any studies on this as evidence that there's no relationship.
why is it so unbelievable that whatever the flu vaccine does to your body might also help or hurt against the virus

if this is completely impossible then fine I'll go back to sleep
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 08, 2020, 03:40:14 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 08, 2020, 03:35:14 PM
why is it so unbelievable that whatever the flu vaccine does to your body might also help or hurt against the virus

if this is completely impossible then fine I'll go back to sleep
I don't know if it's "completely impossible", but it's comparing apples and oranges.

It's like looking at an athlete who can hit a MLB curveball and asking "well, shouldn't that make him a better field goal kicker?"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 08, 2020, 03:46:48 PM
you're talking about Darin Erstad, obviously
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 04:08:08 PM
Influenza is very different from a corona virus, so resistance to one is unlikely to provide anything vs the other, just as a polio shot isn't going to help resist meningitis.

Other corona virus infections MIGHT provide some basis for recognition by our immune system, maybe, perhaps.  Or not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 08, 2020, 05:29:24 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 08, 2020, 03:40:14 PM
I don't know if it's "completely impossible", but it's comparing apples and oranges.

It's like looking at an athlete who can hit a MLB curveball and asking "well, shouldn't that make him a better field goal kicker?"
Bad analogy,a knuckle ball or a change up perhaps but a field Goal? - um,not seeing it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 08, 2020, 05:41:30 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on September 08, 2020, 05:29:24 PM
Bad analogy,a knuckle ball or a change up perhaps but a field Goal? - um,not seeing it
I stand by the analogy. Perhaps relative to other variants of coronavirus (fastball, curveball, slider), this one is a knuckle ball. And perhaps someone who can hit other pitches (their immune system is trained to recognize certain proteins in coronavirus) is a quicker study at hitting the knuckle ball, than someone without any baseball experience. 

There is some evidence of cross-immunity between strains of influenza, as I understand it. But it's a completely different sport. If the various strains of coronaviruses are like different pitches in baseball, the various strains of influenza are like knowing the different route trees as a wide receiver. It's still a different sport. 

The only reasons this gets compared to the flu so often are due to the symptoms, and due to some of our biggest previous pandemics being the Spanish flu, swine flu, bird flu, etc. It's not due to any similarities in the structure of the virus. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 08, 2020, 05:44:35 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 08, 2020, 03:30:15 PM
I'm just an armchair epidemiologist.

But I'm going to assume that the experts would be or are studying it if there is any relevance.

If there's not (because they know that influenza and COVID are completely different virus families), then so be it.

But with all the studies being done, I would state the absence of any studies on this as evidence that there's no relationship.
You got a nice armchair?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 05:55:22 PM
GA 7 day average for new reported cases down to 1,808, half what it was in late June.  Yesterday was 1,543, which could reflect the holiday weekend accounting.

This is far better than I had expected back in June.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on September 08, 2020, 06:19:37 PM
https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1303443741764661253?s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 08, 2020, 06:48:26 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on September 08, 2020, 06:19:37 PM
https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1303443741764661253?s=19
Irksome if that proves to be true. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 07:02:31 PM
It well could be an individual had a reaction or illness completely unassociated with the vaccine of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on September 08, 2020, 07:15:43 PM
I've read that particular vaccine had a high rate of mild side effects
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 08, 2020, 07:44:15 PM
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/515484-pfizer-biontech-coronavirus-vaccine-could-be (https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/515484-pfizer-biontech-coronavirus-vaccine-could-be)

Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine could be ready for approval by mid-October
Ugur Sahin told CNN that the Pfizer and BioNTech partnership is showing positive results.
By
Alexandra Kelley | Sept. 8, 2020


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 09, 2020, 07:11:51 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/09/astrazenecas-vaccine-trial-halt-defended-by-matt-hancock.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/09/astrazenecas-vaccine-trial-halt-defended-by-matt-hancock.html)

Without any details, it's impossible to assess what this means, a minor delay or a major side effect, or something in between.

There are fortunately two separate vaccine trials in advanced stages, so if this fails there is backup.

It will be interesting to see who lines up first for this, I presume first responders/medical folks would get priority.

"We" might be getting some important general learnings about how to devise a vaccine against a virus in all of this, thinking positively.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 09, 2020, 08:21:51 AM
FWIW,CDC posted much of this last week

https://youtu.be/1mfhZSrSngQ?t=1
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 09, 2020, 08:25:29 AM
The problem with children I think is their being contagious and infecting more vulnerable folks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 09, 2020, 08:43:26 AM
So, GA partially reopened late April, and not much happened, and a lot of places stayed closed.  The increase started mid-June, which coincides with two weeks after the protests, but we're apparently not supposed to correlate those actions.  So, six weeks after a partial reopening, new cases rose dramatically.  The count peaked in late July and hospital capacity was being strained seriously, some places reported 105% usage.  And then it started to decline, and now is at about half what it was late July, six weeks later.

To explain this by invoking "better use of masks and distancing" seems strained to me, it's not what I'm seeing anecdotally.  Car and foot traffic are almost back to normal now.

My area under the curve hypothesis is consistent with these results.

France has gone way up, though perhaps is peaking now.  Sweden of course, well we know what happened there.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 09, 2020, 09:04:17 AM
Had a Covid test done yesterday, as I have a procedure coming up on Friday and they would not do it without me being tested.

I don't have Covid (again). So that's good. Happy to bring that rate of positivity down for Florida - assuming Illinois reports my result as being a Florida resident.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 09, 2020, 09:13:34 AM
Congrats on not having the ronas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 09, 2020, 09:36:48 AM
I know there are people who have had it twice (not a big number), but I'm really not concerned at all about getting it. We are doing the right things. Same people every weekend, who are also doing all the right things.

This one was a nasty test. They swabbed my throat for about a minute. I coughed a lot.

Results in 10 hours. Not bad at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 09, 2020, 10:38:59 AM
my daughter got a test thursday last week

nurse came outside and did it through the truck window

swabbed both nostrils, not aggressively at all

Said test results in 2 days, but since it was a holiday weekend, got results Tuesday

negative
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on September 09, 2020, 10:45:24 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 09, 2020, 08:43:26 AM
Car and foot traffic are almost back to normal now.

Our automatic traffic counters show that in Minnesota, statewide volumes have rebounded but are still running ~10% below the historical mean. However, there is some variation by district. 

http://www.dot.state.mn.us/traffic/data/data-products.html#volume

http://www.dot.state.mn.us/traffic/data/reports/COVID19/March-Aug_Volume_2020-08-30.pdf
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 09, 2020, 10:47:27 AM
10% below would indicate most aren't hunkered down in their covid bunkers
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 09, 2020, 10:54:18 AM
Inside the loop here, freeway traffic is probably off 20% or more.  Outside the loop, it's probably close to normal, 90+%.  Still a lot of work from home if you work downtown, and of course with no conventions a lot of downtown is basically shuttered anyway.

I don't know where airport traffic is, half normal would be a guess.  That is the largest employer in the state I think.

The suburbs appear to be "cooking" about full out, the few times I venture out in the hinterlands.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 09, 2020, 11:11:42 AM
I'd say we're back up to maybe 85% of normal traffic here in the ATX.  Definitely the majority of people are out and about. They're just not going to bars and rock concerts.

Speaking of rock concerts, this Friday I'll be going to hear live music for the first time since the coronas hit the country.  It's a local cover band that my next door neighbor sings for, and they'll be playing an outside biergarten with tables well spaced.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 09, 2020, 11:15:45 AM
Quote from: utee94 on September 09, 2020, 11:11:42 AM
I'd say we're back up to maybe 85% of normal traffic here in the ATX.  Definitely the majority of people are out and about. They're just not going to bars and rock concerts.

Speaking of rock concerts, this Friday I'll be going to hear live music for the first time since the coronas hit the country.  It's a local cover band that my next door neighbor sings for, and they'll be playing an outside biergarten with tables well spaced.


How come folks can go to an outdoor concert with no raised eyebrows but no one is allowed  in a football stadium

even at 25% normal for spacing?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 09, 2020, 11:20:03 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 09, 2020, 11:15:45 AM
How come folks can go to an outdoor concert with no raised eyebrows but no one is allowed  in a football stadium

even at 25% normal for spacing?
Who says no one is allowed in a stadium? The University of Texas plans to allow 25% of capacity. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 09, 2020, 11:24:43 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 09, 2020, 11:20:03 AM
Who says no one is allowed in a stadium? The University of Texas plans to allow 25% of capacity.
Yup, we're about to get our first major test in the Austin area.

Texas Motor Speedway hosted a NASCAR race in July that had somewhere between 15,000 and 20,000 fans.  Of course, that venue is more spread out than is Memorial Stadium in Austin.

Like I said before, I wouldn't worry at all about being inside the football stadium at 25% capacity.  The real problem is the confined access to bathrooms, concessions, and the always-packed lines for entrance and egress before and after the game.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 09, 2020, 11:31:50 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 09, 2020, 11:20:03 AM
Who says no one is allowed in a stadium? The University of Texas plans to allow 25% of capacity.
thats news to me 

good lets give it a shot
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 09, 2020, 11:40:39 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 09, 2020, 11:31:50 AM
thats news to me

good lets give it a shot
The Southwest Texas State game against SMU in San Marcos last weekend had a reported attendance of 7,500. Having watched the game, that seems a little high to me, probably more like 4K-5K.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 09, 2020, 11:41:53 AM
someone has to be there to sing "the eyes"

the players aren't gonna sing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 09, 2020, 11:45:14 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 09, 2020, 11:41:53 AM
someone has to be there to sing "the eyes"

the players aren't gonna sing

(https://previews.123rf.com/images/srsallay/srsallay1305/srsallay130500001/19524229-cartoon-of-a-chef-stirring-a-big-pot.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 09, 2020, 11:49:26 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 09, 2020, 11:41:53 AM
someone has to be there to sing "the eyes"

the players aren't gonna sing
do they still play football in Nebraska
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 09, 2020, 11:50:21 AM
yes, High School football


and the players sing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 09, 2020, 11:52:34 AM
dont worry we'll find somebody to sing it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvM7zeaONSo
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 09, 2020, 11:56:17 AM
Oh come on lh320, you're talking to a Husker.  THIS is the one you should have chosen... :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9qbCWuwStU
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 09, 2020, 12:05:51 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 09, 2020, 11:52:34 AM
dont worry we'll find somebody to sing it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvM7zeaONSo
Lord what an awful offensive game. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 09, 2020, 12:09:25 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 09, 2020, 11:56:17 AM
Oh come on lh320, you're talking to a Husker.  THIS is the one you should have chosen... :)

I've heard "the eyes" too many times in Lincoln
once with Burnt Eyes
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 09, 2020, 12:09:37 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on September 09, 2020, 12:05:51 PM
Lord what an awful offensive game.
If those were two SEC teams it would be called a defensive masterpiece.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 09, 2020, 12:19:52 PM
not twelving that fine day
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 09, 2020, 12:24:35 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 09, 2020, 12:09:37 PM
If those were two SEC teams it would be called a defensive masterpiece.
Eight turnovers and a winning team at 3.4 yards per play.

GIVE ME ALL THAT 12ING IN THAT CASE!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 09, 2020, 01:19:19 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on September 09, 2020, 12:24:35 PM
Eight turnovers and a winning team at 3.4 yards per play.

Exactly!  Ball-hawking defenses that stymie the winning offense to 3.4 yards per play are lauded in the SEC. :)

You only think you want better offense!

Anyway, that was a really fun game to attend, so much drama.  It was frustrating, and exciting, and a tremendous relief to watch Texas ultimately win.  Words can't describe how that stadium, split 50/50 at the 50 yard line, contributes to the high drama on every single play.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 09, 2020, 01:42:59 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 09, 2020, 01:19:19 PM
Exactly!  Ball-hawking defenses that stymie the winning offense to 3.4 yards per play are lauded in the SEC. :)

You only think you want better offense!

Skicat used to say that Wild Bill Snyder slowed down his own offense (hid offense) as to not put up too many yards or too many scores
just play field position and run the clock

Wild Bill would have been wildly successful in the SEC
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 09, 2020, 05:33:15 PM
A Boston lab suspended coronavirus testing after an investigation uncovered nearly 400 false positive COVID-19 results.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/coronavirus-testing-at-boston-lab-suspended-after-nearly-400-false-positives/ar-BB18RTlv?ocid=sf (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/coronavirus-testing-at-boston-lab-suspended-after-nearly-400-false-positives/ar-BB18RTlv?ocid=sf)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 09, 2020, 07:58:00 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 09, 2020, 01:19:19 PM
Exactly!  Ball-hawking defenses that stymie the winning offense to 3.4 yards per play are lauded in the SEC. :)

You only think you want better offense!

Anyway, that was a really fun game to attend, so much drama.  It was frustrating, and exciting, and a tremendous relief to watch Texas ultimately win.  Words can't describe how that stadium, split 50/50 at the 50 yard line, contributes to the high drama on every single play.
Thank God for the Baby I'm Burnin' game to remind us that some SEC grinders can still be treated with correct scorn. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 10, 2020, 04:29:54 AM
The only thing I question about Trump's early assessment of COVID is how accurate that assessment appears to have been.  It's almost prescient.  Granted, someone else told him, but even so, back then we knew so little about this.  We don't know that much even now I think.

I also wonder if a much earlier shutdown would have simply delayed the ultimate pain (area under the curve).  We did keep hospitals from being overrun at least, but one editorial I read claimed we took the worst possible middle road strategy to this.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 10, 2020, 08:56:30 AM
UW-Madison facility starts manufacturing COVID-19 treatment drug


https://www.kenoshanews.com/news/state-and-regional/uw-madison-facility-starts-manufacturing-covid-19-treatment-drug/article_935f3b2d-cbc9-5c2a-98cf-927270ce9f97.html (https://www.kenoshanews.com/news/state-and-regional/uw-madison-facility-starts-manufacturing-covid-19-treatment-drug/article_935f3b2d-cbc9-5c2a-98cf-927270ce9f97.html)


I hope it works. Almost sounds too good to be true. Maybe.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 10, 2020, 08:56:39 AM
editorial

but, I'm sure written by an expert
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 10, 2020, 09:19:15 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 10, 2020, 08:56:30 AM
UW-Madison facility starts manufacturing COVID-19 treatment drug


https://www.kenoshanews.com/news/state-and-regional/uw-madison-facility-starts-manufacturing-covid-19-treatment-drug/article_935f3b2d-cbc9-5c2a-98cf-927270ce9f97.html (https://www.kenoshanews.com/news/state-and-regional/uw-madison-facility-starts-manufacturing-covid-19-treatment-drug/article_935f3b2d-cbc9-5c2a-98cf-927270ce9f97.html)


I hope it works. Almost sounds too good to be true. Maybe.


I stopped at "UW-Madison facility starts manufacturing COVID-19" and thought of all the punchlines.

Seems like a bit of a PR story, but only need a few PR stories to pan out to be in a better spot. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 10, 2020, 09:20:56 AM
why wouldnt this new drug have to go through testing and if so that will take longer then expected vaccines will be available
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 10, 2020, 09:34:20 AM
Sounded to me like it has gone through testing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on September 10, 2020, 10:08:29 AM
Hard on the heels of UW Madison going entirely online for at least 2 weeks and quarantining two res halls.

https://www.kare11.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/uw-madison-shifts-all-classes-to-online-for-at-least-2-weeks/89-90c104d9-77bd-46fc-9f37-a5a42648e97e
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 10, 2020, 10:16:53 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 10, 2020, 09:34:20 AM
Sounded to me like it has gone through testing.
The Phase 3 trials are ongoing.  Production is starting in the event the trials show safety and efficacy.  It is possible what they make has to be discarded.

But otherwise we wait for the clinical results and THEN start production, which would delay everything.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 10, 2020, 10:20:40 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 10, 2020, 10:16:53 AM
The Phase 3 trials are ongoing.  Production is starting in the event the trials show safety and efficacy.  It is possible what they make has to be discarded.

But otherwise we wait for the clinical results and THEN start production, which would delay everything.
This is not a vaccine we are talking about here. It's a drug used to suppress the disease.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 10, 2020, 10:21:06 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on September 10, 2020, 10:08:29 AM
Hard on the heels of UW Madison going entirely online for at least 2 weeks and quarantining two res halls.

https://www.kare11.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/uw-madison-shifts-all-classes-to-online-for-at-least-2-weeks/89-90c104d9-77bd-46fc-9f37-a5a42648e97e
Already posted this in the "odds we have football" thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 10, 2020, 10:21:31 AM
https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-things-we-have-learned-about-covid-20200910-7omc6p4a2bf6pee2ymkyok6hvi-story.html (https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-things-we-have-learned-about-covid-20200910-7omc6p4a2bf6pee2ymkyok6hvi-story.html)


Interesting read. Bottom line, wear your f'ing mask.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 10, 2020, 10:26:52 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 10, 2020, 10:20:40 AM
This is not a vaccine we are talking about here. It's a drug used to suppress the disease.
not sure what diff that makes it still has to be tested
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 10, 2020, 10:35:48 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 10, 2020, 09:34:20 AM
Sounded to me like it has gone through testing.
GigaGen reports that lab tests show GIGA-2050 has been more protective against the virus than plasma. The company is planning multiple phases of testing, which will be produced by Waisman Biomanufacturing and a biotech company in Florida.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 10, 2020, 11:00:26 AM
Right, so it has been tested and will go through more testing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 10, 2020, 01:01:11 PM
use the students as testers
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 10, 2020, 01:07:45 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 10, 2020, 01:01:11 PM
use the students as testers
Treatments are for people who actually feel sick. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 10, 2020, 01:14:05 PM
plenty of those students that are getting in trouble for large parties feel plenty sick the next morning
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 10, 2020, 01:29:44 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 10, 2020, 01:14:05 PM
plenty of those students that are getting in trouble for large parties feel plenty sick the next morning
Ain't that the truth.  Same as it ever was.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 10, 2020, 02:16:34 PM
O’FALLON, Mo. (AP) — Teachers in at least three states have died after bouts with the coronavirus since the dawn of the new school year, and a teachers’ union leader worries that the return to in-person classes will have a deadly impact across the U.S. if proper precautions aren’t taken.

AshLee DeMarinis was just 34 when she died Sunday after three weeks in the hospital. She taught social skills and special education at John Evans Middle School in Potosi, Missouri, about 70 miles (115 kilometers) southwest of St. Louis.

A third-grade teacher died Monday in South Carolina, and two other educators died recently in Mississippi. It’s unclear how many teachers in the U.S. have become ill with COVID-19 since the new school year began, but Mississippi alone has reported 604 cases among school teachers and staff.


https://apnews.com/3e97872bf3cd8697064014efcf2ec622 (https://apnews.com/3e97872bf3cd8697064014efcf2ec622)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 10, 2020, 08:49:21 PM
Great.....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 10, 2020, 09:05:53 PM
I really wish we could get reliable information on co-morbidities. 

If that 34 year old was obese, had diabetes, had COPD, well, that's a ticking time bomb of a combo when you pile on this virus on top of it all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 10, 2020, 09:14:19 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 10, 2020, 09:05:53 PM
I really wish we could get reliable information on co-morbidities.

If that 34 year old was obese, had diabetes, had COPD, well, that's a ticking time bomb of a combo when you pile on this virus on top of it all.
also I think the article said she caught it from her church group
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 10, 2020, 09:15:48 PM
Slade was teaching in-person when the academic year started on Aug. 6, Principal Raina Holmes said, but began quarantining after he had contact with someone who was positive at a church meeting. His last day of teaching was Aug. 21.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 10, 2020, 10:13:13 PM
I'd still like reliable information on co-morbidities. I don't care where you got it, or how. I am interested in what other factors contribute to the various levels of severity with this thing.

When I had it, it was rough for a couple of days. My wife had a little cough - almost asymptomatic, because she has allergies and is always coughing. Tough to tell.

Since I had it, I've dropped 35 pounds, cut way back on my cigars and changed what and why and when I eat. Cut back on the booze too. The goal is to not have co-morbidities when the next virus comes out.

It's scary, so people need to get in shape, if at all possible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 10, 2020, 10:51:23 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 10, 2020, 10:13:13 PM

It's scary, so people need to get in shape, if at all possible.
that's tough for me
I like red meat, cigars, beer and booze
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 10, 2020, 11:10:53 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 10, 2020, 09:05:53 PM
I really wish we could get reliable information on co-morbidities.

If that 34 year old was obese, had diabetes, had COPD, well, that's a ticking time bomb of a combo when you pile on this virus on top of it all.
I heard the South Carolina teacher was only 28. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 10, 2020, 11:13:39 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 10, 2020, 10:51:23 PM
that's tough for me
I like red meat, cigars, beer and booze
I keep harping on the question of whether it's affecting those who are obese or those who are out of shape...

...because I'm obese, despite carrying only a 38" waist (they say the goal is <40" for health). 

I'm not "out" of shape. I can walk/hike miles and miles w/o a problem. But even if I get into better shape, I'll never be "normal" weight, although I might fall out of the obese category. 

So I'm also wondering about that particular comorbidity. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on September 10, 2020, 11:27:07 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 10, 2020, 11:13:39 PM
I keep harping on the question of whether it's affecting those who are obese or those who are out of shape...

...because I'm obese, despite carrying only a 38" waist (they say the goal is <40" for health).

I'm not "out" of shape. I can walk/hike miles and miles w/o a problem. But even if I get into better shape, I'll never be "normal" weight, although I might fall out of the obese category.

So I'm also wondering about that particular comorbidity.
Yeah, that is pretty much me too and I wonder the same thing. Would my size hurt me or would my active lifestyle help me?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 11, 2020, 12:31:28 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 10, 2020, 09:15:48 PM
Slade was teaching in-person when the academic year started on Aug. 6, Principal Raina Holmes said, but began quarantining after he had contact with someone who was positive at a church meeting. His last day of teaching was Aug. 21.
Right.
Our in-person schooling will begin when the zip code of our school district meets certain guidelines.  Great, right?  Except that I don't live in my district's zip code - most of the teachers don't.  So we're coming in from all across the city into one big building, with central air, touching all the same door handles, using the same bathrooms, etc. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 11, 2020, 06:45:11 AM
I wouldn't worry about touching the surfaces if you wash your hands. Wearing the mask seems to be the key here. I'd think/hope the schools figured out better AC filtering. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 11, 2020, 09:13:13 AM
we're looking into HVAC filtering at out small office.

It's not inexpensive
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 11, 2020, 10:20:11 AM
What is there to be filtered?  No air handling system is going to filter out the virus itself by any normal means.  You can filter particulate that could have virus attached to it.  I'd be careful as there probably are charlatans selling junk out there.

https://www.epa.gov/coronavirus/air-cleaners-hvac-filters-and-coronavirus-covid-19 (https://www.epa.gov/coronavirus/air-cleaners-hvac-filters-and-coronavirus-covid-19)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 11, 2020, 10:26:03 AM
it's a scrubber

supposedly it can filter out smells, maybe it's just deodorant
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 11, 2020, 10:35:43 AM
Be interesting to know how it "scrubs".  You don't want ozone anything.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 11, 2020, 11:04:41 AM
from my meat packing daze...........

Multistage wet scrubbers are equally as effective as incineration for high intensity odor control
and are used to about the same extent as incinerators. Sodium hypochlorite is considered to be the
most effective scrubbing agent for odor removal, although other oxidants can be used. Recently,
chlorine dioxide has been used as an effective scrubbing agent. Venturi scrubbers are often used to
remove PM from waste streams before treatment by the multistage wet scrubbers. Plants that are
located near residential or commercial areas may treat process and fugitive emissions by ducting the
plant ventilation air through a single-stage wet scrubbing system to minimize odorous emissions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 11, 2020, 11:08:51 AM
Interesting, those chlorinating agents would attack nearly all odors, but then you have their residue to remove somehow.  I presume they then neutralize any excess with a reducing agent, somehow ensuring good contact with everything.

I don't know anything about it, other than coal emissions scrubbing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 11, 2020, 11:12:02 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/09/covid-19-vaccine-trial-participant-had-neurological-symptoms-astrazeneca-ceo-says.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/09/covid-19-vaccine-trial-participant-had-neurological-symptoms-astrazeneca-ceo-says.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 11, 2020, 11:12:23 AM
The total weekly US positives continue to decline  for 8 weeks straight

on week ending 7/16/20 there were 475,000 positives

on week ending 9/10/20 there were 253,000 positives

so thats good news
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 11, 2020, 11:12:51 AM
inedible rendering and blood processing cause quite a stench

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 11, 2020, 11:16:36 AM
I recall driving I-65 in Indiana and passing through waves of horrible hog urine smell on the freeway.  I gather they use holding ponds.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 11, 2020, 11:23:28 AM
weekly virus deaths have fallen from 7700 on 8/5/20

to 5300 on 9/9/20

its going in the right direction
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 11, 2020, 01:10:40 PM
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/pandemic-appears-have-spared-africa-so-far-scientists-are-struggling-explain-why?fbclid=IwAR3AKH_1VVnQMRVDZOm2Hxjlf0O06ilrbdLYpQNPgH2OQCTMrZN4mtNPjvk (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/pandemic-appears-have-spared-africa-so-far-scientists-are-struggling-explain-why?fbclid=IwAR3AKH_1VVnQMRVDZOm2Hxjlf0O06ilrbdLYpQNPgH2OQCTMrZN4mtNPjvk)


One more thing I don't understand....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 11, 2020, 01:39:19 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 11, 2020, 01:10:40 PM
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/pandemic-appears-have-spared-africa-so-far-scientists-are-struggling-explain-why?fbclid=IwAR3AKH_1VVnQMRVDZOm2Hxjlf0O06ilrbdLYpQNPgH2OQCTMrZN4mtNPjvk (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/pandemic-appears-have-spared-africa-so-far-scientists-are-struggling-explain-why?fbclid=IwAR3AKH_1VVnQMRVDZOm2Hxjlf0O06ilrbdLYpQNPgH2OQCTMrZN4mtNPjvk)


One more thing I don't understand....
I read somewhere one opinion on this is that these countries have high rates of malaria and the big use of hydroxychoroquine

may be the answer
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 11, 2020, 01:50:01 PM
we can only hope
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on September 11, 2020, 03:14:06 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 11, 2020, 01:39:19 PM
I read somewhere one opinion on this is that these countries have high rates of malaria and the big use of hydroxychoroquine

may be the answer
Sorry, but the deaths would be massive if they are taking that dangerous drug Hydroxychoroquine
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 11, 2020, 03:25:48 PM
I'm not taking any drugs that I can't spell or even pronounce
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 11, 2020, 03:26:54 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on September 11, 2020, 03:14:06 PM
Sorry, but the deaths would be massive if they are taking that dangerous drug Hydroxychoroquine
the drug has been used for over 60 years with very good results against malaria and does not have a track record of being dangerous 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 11, 2020, 03:30:12 PM
yup, that one

didn't even kill Trump when he was ingesting it or shooting up with it or whatever he thought he was doing

ah, injecting bleach!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 11, 2020, 03:47:35 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 11, 2020, 03:30:12 PM
yup, that one

didn't even kill Trump when he was ingesting it or shooting up with it or whatever he thought he was doing

ah, injecting bleach!
not near as potent as the shit Biden must be on
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 11, 2020, 04:44:52 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 11, 2020, 03:26:54 PM
the drug has been used for over 60 years with very good results against malaria and does not have a track record of being dangerous
I think riffraft was speaking facetiously.

Clearly the drug has been widely used-- safely-- for many decades as an anti-malarial.  

It would indeed be pretty interesting if that were the reason why outbreaks have been limited in Africa.

It's also possible that the reporting out of Africa is just spotty, and that there are so many other diseases running rampant, that tracking a coronavirus that is far less lethal than many of their other daily maladies, just isn't at the top of their priority list.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 11, 2020, 04:46:55 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 11, 2020, 04:44:52 PM
Clearly the drug has been widely used-- safely-- for many decades as an anti-malarial. 
Also used for autoimmune disorders. One of the complaints when everyone wanted HCQ is from people who need it for their autoimmune disorders [my FIL is one of them] and it suddenly was in short supply. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 11, 2020, 04:59:05 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 11, 2020, 04:46:55 PM
Also used for autoimmune disorders. One of the complaints when everyone wanted HCQ is from people who need it for their autoimmune disorders [my FIL is one of them] and it suddenly was in short supply.
Didn't know that but I suppose it makes sense.  Some of its speculated benefit in treating COVID with it, is that it helps curb the autoimmune over-response that results in the cytokine storm that's associated with some of the worst outcomes.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 11, 2020, 05:05:10 PM
Here is the article I read

https://www.foxnews.com/world/do-countries-with-high-rates-of-malaria-have-fewer-coronavirus-deaths
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 11, 2020, 05:09:55 PM
really?  from Fox News??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 11, 2020, 05:31:05 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 11, 2020, 05:09:55 PM
really?  from Fox News??
hey if CW can site all the left web site like Bull whatever I can site Fox

Im sure sooner or later you'll see this on CNN when they are forced into it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 11, 2020, 05:34:48 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 11, 2020, 05:31:05 PM
hey if CW can site all the left web site like Bull whatever I can site Fox

Im sure sooner or later you'll see this on CNN when they are forced into it
I think Fearless is deep into the schooners and just trying to get a rise out of folks right now, 320.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 11, 2020, 05:35:57 PM
headed to Texas Roadhouse for a few drinks and a large porterhouse - rare
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 11, 2020, 05:43:22 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 11, 2020, 05:34:48 PM
I think Fearless is deep into the schooners and just trying to get a rise out of folks right now, 320.
That's different from any other time FF speaks... how? :)



(https://previews.123rf.com/images/srsallay/srsallay1305/srsallay130500001/19524229-cartoon-of-a-chef-stirring-a-big-pot.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 11, 2020, 05:57:53 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 11, 2020, 05:34:48 PM
I think Fearless is deep into the schooners and just trying to get a rise out of folks right now, 320.
oh ok I'll go back to sleep
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 11, 2020, 06:28:16 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 11, 2020, 01:39:19 PM
I read somewhere one opinion on this is that these countries have high rates of malaria and the big use of hydroxychoroquine

may be the answer
I love this.  


"I read somewhere..." is a great source, for someone poo-pooing the liberal's artillery of anonymous sources.  

And it causes a whole conversation here about hydroxyblahblahblah - classic case of 2 things that may be true (low COVID rates, widespread use of a drug), but with literally zero suggested correlation.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 11, 2020, 06:33:42 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 11, 2020, 06:28:16 PM
I love this. 


"I read somewhere..." is a great source, for someone poo-pooing the liberal's artillery of anonymous sources. 

And it causes a whole conversation here about hydroxyblahblahblah - classic case of 2 things that may be true (low COVID rates, widespread use of a drug), but with literally zero suggested correlation. 
if you would take the time to read the article I posted you might see why I posted this
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 11, 2020, 06:35:18 PM
Correlation:

Africa is subject to malaria.

Hydroxychloroquine is a malarial treatmeant/preventative.  (I'm not sure how many Subsaharan Africans have access to it.)

Africa as a continent has fewer cases/deaths than expected.

That is a correlation.  It may NOT be causally related.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 11, 2020, 07:57:10 PM
Correlation:

Africa has a lot of lions.

Lions kill fewer people than Covid-19.

Africa as a continent has fewer cases/deaths than expected.

Same exact "correlation"....ie - NONE.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 11, 2020, 08:00:00 PM
Oh, I have a more 'chemical' one if you want....


Africa is mostly populated by black people

Black people are relatively deficient in vitamin D.

Something like 95% of Covid hospitalizations are vitamin D deficient.

Yet Africa has relatively low cases/deaths from Covid.

Therefore Miss Lippy's car is green.  


Ta-da!

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 11, 2020, 08:01:31 PM
I do have a serious question, though.....what's the over/under on teacher deaths before we scrap in-person schooling?  


Hopefully it's less than tens of thousands.  Sure, we're only at 6 or whatever....but remember when we had 15 Covid cases and they were going to soon go away?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 11, 2020, 08:18:59 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 11, 2020, 06:35:18 PM
Correlation:

Africa is subject to malaria.

Hydroxychloroquine is a malarial treatmeant/preventative.  (I'm not sure how many Subsaharan Africans have access to it.)

Africa as a continent has fewer cases/deaths than expected.

That is a correlation.  It may NOT be causally related.
maybe not but still interesting
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 11, 2020, 08:21:25 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 11, 2020, 08:01:31 PM
I do have a serious question, though.....what's the over/under on teacher deaths before we scrap in-person schooling? 


Hopefully it's less than tens of thousands.  Sure, we're only at 6 or whatever....but remember when we had 15 Covid cases and they were going to soon go away?
Gee I dont know OAM

by the way how do you feel?

any cough or fever?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 11, 2020, 09:37:32 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 11, 2020, 08:01:31 PM
I do have a serious question, though.....what's the over/under on teacher deaths before we scrap in-person schooling? 


Hopefully it's less than tens of thousands.  Sure, we're only at 6 or whatever....but remember when we had 15 Covid cases and they were going to soon go away?
I'm guessing teacher deaths will be over 100.  School districts set the parameters.  I suppose the state or fed could set in and abuse power and do the "right" thing and scrap in-person schooling

what's the over/under on teacher deaths reported as covid that were from other factors?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 11, 2020, 09:51:52 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 10, 2020, 11:13:39 PM
I keep harping on the question of whether it's affecting those who are obese or those who are out of shape...

...because I'm obese, despite carrying only a 38" waist (they say the goal is <40" for health).

I'm not "out" of shape. I can walk/hike miles and miles w/o a problem. But even if I get into better shape, I'll never be "normal" weight, although I might fall out of the obese category.

So I'm also wondering about that particular comorbidity.
All those years of workouts also worked to his advantage.

"Even as strong as I am, I was right there on the edge," he says.

Right there on the edge. You know the one.

"I'm very, very lucky to come out of it," he says.

Lightner didn't have underlying health conditions. Yes, he's a big dude — 6-foot-2 and 300 pounds. But he's always been physically fit.

He admits that before his illness, he didn't take COVID-19 seriously enough. He knows plenty of people who think it's all a government scam. He hopes those people notice his story and maybe put their guards up.

"I hope this will change some minds, even if it's out of respect for other people," he says.

At about noon Thursday, Lightner was getting ready for an afternoon workout. Mind you, his workouts nowadays aren't nearly as intense as his hardcore sessions before his illness. Keep in mind, he's a former collegiate lineman who during the months preceding Nebraska's 1987 season was regarded as the program's strongest-ever player, having recorded a 441-pound bench press and squatting 756 pounds.

https://journalstar.com/sports/huskers/sipple/steven-m-sipple-former-husker-didnt-take-covid-19-very-seriously-until-it-nearly-killed/article_e0b7d2e4-b50e-50bb-b021-8fadef4afbe3.amp.html (https://journalstar.com/sports/huskers/sipple/steven-m-sipple-former-husker-didnt-take-covid-19-very-seriously-until-it-nearly-killed/article_e0b7d2e4-b50e-50bb-b021-8fadef4afbe3.amp.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 11, 2020, 09:59:46 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 11, 2020, 09:37:32 PM
I'm guessing teacher deaths will be over 100.  School districts set the parameters.  I suppose the state or fed could set in and abuse power and do the "right" thing and scrap in-person schooling

what's the over/under on teacher deaths reported as covid that were from other factors?
I dont think it will be near that many

lets hope not
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 11, 2020, 10:00:45 PM
less than 50 actually from COVID
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 11, 2020, 10:07:23 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 11, 2020, 10:00:45 PM
less than 50 actually from COVID
well let me qualify

less then 50 resulting from catching it at school

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 11, 2020, 10:21:18 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 11, 2020, 09:37:32 PM
I'm guessing teacher deaths will be over 100.  School districts set the parameters.  I suppose the state or fed could set in and abuse power and do the "right" thing and scrap in-person schooling

what's the over/under on teacher deaths reported as covid that were from other factors?
Thanks for going the political/asshat route.  Seriously?
Okay........fuckkk.........how can I word this so that you focus on the actual issue?????    HOW MANY TEACHER DEATHS ABOVE AVERAGE WILL IT TAKE FOR A MAJORITY OF OUR COUNTRY TO HALT IN-PERSON SCHOOLING?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 11, 2020, 10:22:27 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 11, 2020, 08:21:25 PM
Gee I dont know OAM

by the way how do you feel?

any cough or fever?
i want everyone to remember this one the next time you suggest I be more civil.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 11, 2020, 10:38:45 PM
In 2 of your last 3 posts you used the reference to the "F" word - so what kind of civil "F"ing teacher are you?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 11, 2020, 10:59:21 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 11, 2020, 10:21:18 PM
Thanks for going the political/asshat route.  Seriously?
Okay........fuckkk.........how can I word this so that you focus on the actual issue?????    HOW MANY TEACHER DEATHS ABOVE AVERAGE WILL IT TAKE FOR A MAJORITY OF OUR COUNTRY TO HALT IN-PERSON SCHOOLING?
above average?

just how many teacher deaths would be considered average OAM?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 12, 2020, 01:26:27 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on September 11, 2020, 10:38:45 PM
In 2 of your last 3 posts you used the reference to the "F" word - so what kind of civil "F"ing teacher are you?

Ohhhh nooo, I used one of the naughty words correctly, to convey an idea!  That somehow makes me uncivil!  


Can you guys age out already?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 12, 2020, 01:27:08 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 11, 2020, 10:59:21 PM
above average?

just how many teacher deaths would be considered average OAM?


How should I know, ask Fearless.  He's the one muddying up the waters instead of addressing the actual point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 12, 2020, 04:43:19 AM
I presume teachers in the US typically range in age from 24 to 65.

Adults 65 and older account for 16% of the US population but 80% of COVID-19 deaths in the US, somewhat higher than their share of deaths from all causes (75%) over the same period.

Rounding up, we have 200,000 COVID related deaths to date, so 20%, or 40,000, are of teaching age (presuming no deaths under 24, which is not true, but I'm rounding.  That is of a total population under 65 of 275 million people, total.

There are 3.2 million public school teachers in the US, or 1.16% of the population under 65.  So, we'd expect under 500 to die of COVID overall without any additional exposure due to school activities.

So, if 500 die without school, we might expect the figure to "double??" with school?  Is school more prone to exposures than "normal life"?  I think "it depends" obviously.

No doubt we will hear stories of this or that teacher dying of COVID, we already have, but the figures overall likely will be relatively small because of the statistics.  We'd really need to know how many ELEVATED deaths are in that group, which could be rough to calculate because the numbers overall are small.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 12, 2020, 05:06:01 AM
I found this on line:

Across the U.S., the American Federation of Teachers lists 210 union members who have died. The list includes support staff and retirees as well as teachers.

That's in the ballpark I think of my rough estimates above, I'd GUESS 150 are retired teachers.  And of course not every teacher is a member of that union.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 12, 2020, 07:31:58 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 12, 2020, 05:06:01 AM
I found this on line:

Across the U.S., the American Federation of Teachers lists 210 union members who have died. The list includes support staff and retirees as well as teachers.

That's in the ballpark I think of my rough estimates above, I'd GUESS 150 are retired teachers.  And of course not every teacher is a member of that union.


I just dont think we will see near that many and thats because the opened school environment will be much safer then the norm

there will be lots of testing going on and any positives will be gotten early

theres going to be plenty of positives but far fewer deaths
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 12, 2020, 09:12:43 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 12, 2020, 04:43:19 AM
I presume teachers in the US typically range in age from 24 to 65.

Adults 65 and older account for 16% of the US population but 80% of COVID-19 deaths in the US, somewhat higher than their share of deaths from all causes (75%) over the same period.

Rounding up, we have 200,000 COVID related deaths to date, so 20%, or 4,000, are of teaching age (presuming no deaths under 24, which is not true, but I'm rounding.  That is of a total population under 65 of 275 million people, total.

There are 3.2 million public school teachers in the US, or 1.16% of the population under 65.  So, we'd expect under 50 to die of COVID overall without any additional exposure due to school activities.

So, if 50 die without school, we might expect the figure to "double??" with school?  Is school more prone to exposures than "normal life"?  I think "it depends" obviously.

No doubt we will hear stories of this or that teacher dying of COVID, we already have, but the figures overall likely will be relatively small because of the statistics.  We'd really need to know how many ELEVATED deaths are in that group, which could be rough to calculate because the numbers overall are small.
Check your math. 20% is 40,000. Not 4,000.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 12, 2020, 09:28:23 AM
Well, crap.  I'll fix it, thanks for catching that error.  Just an order of mag.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 12, 2020, 10:14:40 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 12, 2020, 01:26:27 AM
Ohhhh nooo, I used one of the naughty words correctly, to convey an idea!  That somehow makes me uncivil! 


Can you guys age out already? 
Can you get a grip,after all children could be reading.And after all your parents raised you right,we know this because you have told us so.So share with them your creative vocabulary - I'm sure they'd glisten/glow with pride
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 12, 2020, 10:37:18 AM
http://www.ipsnews.net/2020/06/curious-case-covid-19-africa/ (http://www.ipsnews.net/2020/06/curious-case-covid-19-africa/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 12, 2020, 01:54:29 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 11, 2020, 10:21:18 PM
Thanks for going the political/asshat route.  Seriously?
Okay........fuckkk.........how can I word this so that you focus on the actual issue?????    HOW MANY TEACHER DEATHS ABOVE AVERAGE WILL IT TAKE FOR A MAJORITY OF OUR COUNTRY TO HALT IN-PERSON SCHOOLING?
this isn't about above average
this is about in person schooling killing teachers directly from exposing them to COVID

let me know where we can get good believable numbers on teacher's deaths do to COVID
political asshats and medical asshats wanting to profit from numbers are the problem, not me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 12, 2020, 02:06:09 PM
I find this interesting.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR2-muRM3tB3uBdbTrmKwH1NdaBx6PpZo2kxotNwkUXlnbZXCwSRP2OmqsI&_ga=2.7276727.426654790.1599933721-836819906.1594823322#Comorbidities (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR2-muRM3tB3uBdbTrmKwH1NdaBx6PpZo2kxotNwkUXlnbZXCwSRP2OmqsI&_ga=2.7276727.426654790.1599933721-836819906.1594823322#Comorbidities)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 12, 2020, 02:11:58 PM
Wisconsin is seeing a pretty large uptick right now. Labor Day, and the colleges, I'm sure.

Here is the data. It's mostly the kiddies.

https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/cases.htm (https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/cases.htm)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 12, 2020, 02:22:30 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 12, 2020, 02:06:09 PM
I find this interesting.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR2-muRM3tB3uBdbTrmKwH1NdaBx6PpZo2kxotNwkUXlnbZXCwSRP2OmqsI&_ga=2.7276727.426654790.1599933721-836819906.1594823322#Comorbidities (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR2-muRM3tB3uBdbTrmKwH1NdaBx6PpZo2kxotNwkUXlnbZXCwSRP2OmqsI&_ga=2.7276727.426654790.1599933721-836819906.1594823322#Comorbidities)

What I don't like about that is that it tells us nothing about obesity. It's only listed as a contributing factor in ~6k deaths. But with >40% of the US being obese, I don't buy that only 3-4% of covid deaths met the standard of obesity per BMI.

Maybe only those few were so incredibly obese that it was listed as a contributing factor, but what does that mean for the rest of us? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 12, 2020, 02:25:19 PM
I think it means that guys like you (and me) are probably OK. Hell, I was much heavier when I had the thing, and I made it through. Nothing lingering here.

I'm obese when it comes to the general rules too. But, my doctor was pretty happy with me at my physical yesterday. Only thing is he'd like me to cut down on red meat. That's hard for a blood type O guy. I crave it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 12, 2020, 02:47:49 PM
The apathy of additional (and unnecessary) deaths by a certain half of the political spectrum is, yet again, disgusting.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 12, 2020, 02:51:04 PM
I do not care.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 12, 2020, 02:55:58 PM
the republican party is not killing people, imo

teachers and students are not being forced to enter classrooms

individuals are assuming some risk, unnecessarily
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 12, 2020, 02:58:56 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 12, 2020, 02:47:49 PM
The apathy of additional (and unnecessary) deaths by a certain half of the political spectrum is, yet again, disgusting. 
Are you referring to me citing actual data, and thinking about that data, while formulating an opinion of my own?

I've had the Virus. I think I can speak to its effects better than anyone on this board. I was (more) obese, smoked too much and drank too much. I'm prone to bronchitis, and I've had pneumonia. 

It hit me hard for two days, two days where I wore my old CPAP (ventilator) almost constantly. I messaged my doctor and he told me to sit tight, but to call 911 if it got worse. Never happened. The whole thing lasted about a week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 12, 2020, 03:07:31 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 12, 2020, 01:54:29 PM
political asshats and medical asshats wanting to profit from numbers are the problem, not me
You get a Yuengling FF!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 12, 2020, 03:09:38 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 12, 2020, 02:58:56 PM
I've had the Virus. I think I can speak to its effects better than anyone on this board.
You get a  Scotch Yuengling 847!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 12, 2020, 03:11:22 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 12, 2020, 02:47:49 PM
The apathy of additional (and unnecessary) deaths by a certain half of the political spectrum is, yet again, disgusting. 
And the selfishness of certain young people (who slant heavily to the other half of the political spectrum) is a big reason it's spreading.

All the young college students crowding bars and throwing parties weren't wearing masks. They also weren't wearing MAGA hats (ok, maybe in Alabama they were lol). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 12, 2020, 03:12:22 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 12, 2020, 02:58:56 PM

I've had the Virus. I think I can speak to its effects better than anyone on this board. 
Thank you for your anecdata, Badge.... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 12, 2020, 03:29:53 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on September 12, 2020, 03:07:31 PM
You get a Yuengling FF!!!
it'll go well on top of the 6er of Bud I had on the golf course before noon
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 12, 2020, 03:31:50 PM
perhaps the liberals in Ames saved a few lives by not allowing folks in the stadium today

the liberals in charge in Manhattan, KS perhaps could have saved lives, but they sure as hell didn't sentence anyone to death
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 12, 2020, 03:38:51 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 12, 2020, 03:31:50 PM
perhaps the liberals in Ames saved a few lives by not allowing folks in the stadium today

the liberals in charge in Manhattan, KS perhaps could have saved lives, but they sure as hell didn't sentence anyone to death
I dunno, their fans may commit suicide after this one. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 12, 2020, 03:40:10 PM
we know all suicides are fake

COVID!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 12, 2020, 04:22:57 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 12, 2020, 02:58:56 PM
Are you referring to me citing actual data, and thinking about that data, while formulating an opinion of my own?

I've had the Virus. I think I can speak to its effects better than anyone on this board. I was (more) obese, smoked too much and drank too much. I'm prone to bronchitis, and I've had pneumonia.

It hit me hard for two days, two days where I wore my old CPAP (ventilator) almost constantly. I messaged my doctor and he told me to sit tight, but to call 911 if it got worse. Never happened. The whole thing lasted about a week.

My inlaws never had any breathing issues.  Just GI issues. They didn't eat much for a week, and were really tired.  

My FIL is 80, obese, and has diabetes.  My MIL is 82 and in good shape/health for her age.

They both recovered just fine.  The idea that this illness is an instant death sentence, especially for those in the upper age ranges, is simply false.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 12, 2020, 04:29:18 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 12, 2020, 02:58:56 PM
Are you referring to me citing actual data, and thinking about that data, while formulating an opinion of my own?

I've had the Virus. I think I can speak to its effects better than anyone on this board. I was (more) obese, smoked too much and drank too much. I'm prone to bronchitis, and I've had pneumonia.

It hit me hard for two days, two days where I wore my old CPAP (ventilator) almost constantly. I messaged my doctor and he told me to sit tight, but to call 911 if it got worse. Never happened. The whole thing lasted about a week.
Thanks, Mr. Sample Size of ONE

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 12, 2020, 04:29:50 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 12, 2020, 04:22:57 PM
  The idea that this illness is an instant death sentence, especially for those in the upper age ranges, is simply false. 

Who has said this?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 12, 2020, 04:30:23 PM
We need to rename this board, "Fans of Anecdotal Evidence".


I'm not even joking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 12, 2020, 07:18:54 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 12, 2020, 04:29:18 PM
Thanks, Mr. Sample Size of ONE


It's simply not the plague you wish it to be Nancy
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 12, 2020, 08:00:36 PM
and one political party hasn't killed thousands despite the other party's valiant attempts to save everyone 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 13, 2020, 12:22:40 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 12, 2020, 04:30:23 PM
We need to rename this board, "Fans of Anecdotal Evidence".


I'm not even joking.
The statistics verify exactly what I've stated.

I'm not even joking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on September 13, 2020, 02:07:21 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 12, 2020, 04:29:50 PM
Who has said this? 
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 12, 2020, 04:29:50 PM
Who has said this? 
Quote from: utee94 on September 12, 2020, 04:22:57 PM
My inlaws never had any breathing issues.  Just GI issues. They didn't eat much for a week, and were really tired. 

My FIL is 80, obese, and has diabetes.  My MIL is 82 and in good shape/health for her age.

They both recovered just fine.  The idea that this illness is an instant death sentence, especially for those in the upper age ranges, is simply false. 

Great anecdotal argument. When I was a kid we moved to a new neighborhood early '70s. I had a new best friend. We played ping pong in the basement. He was good, I was too. I had to take a bathroom break. George, in the hall, I saw Ann (his sister), George, and another girl. Who is the other girl? 
My sister Amy. She died from the flu. I didn't ask questions as I thought this was strange. George's dad was the CEO of a large local corporation traded in the NYSE. These people were not small fry.
Every year this time of year I get the flu vaccine. And every year I think of Amy, even though I never met her! Think of Amy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 14, 2020, 09:22:18 AM
Quote from: utee94 on September 13, 2020, 12:22:40 AM
The statistics verify exactly what I've stated.

I'm not even joking.
I agree. I even posted a link to the CDC site that proves the point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 14, 2020, 09:36:14 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on September 12, 2020, 07:18:54 PM
It's simply not the plague you wish it to be Nancy

By far the lamest "plague" that has ever been inflicted upon mankind. 

Our deceased ancestors must be having a pretty good laugh at our expense, right about now. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 14, 2020, 09:37:15 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 12, 2020, 03:12:22 PM
Thank you for your anecdata, Badge....
Let me know what else you can offer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 14, 2020, 09:41:55 AM
It appears as though a lot of the posters who point out the anecdotes of others, deploy quite a few themselves. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 14, 2020, 09:49:45 AM
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on September 14, 2020, 09:41:55 AM
It appears as though a lot of the posters who point out the anecdotes of others, deploy quite a few themselves.
Link?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 14, 2020, 09:56:30 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 14, 2020, 09:49:45 AM
Link?


I don't feel like combing through over 600 pages of posts at the moment, but if I did.... what would be the over/under on the number of anecdotes that I could "bump" from both bwarbiany and clown boi? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on September 14, 2020, 10:10:10 AM
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on September 14, 2020, 09:56:30 AM
I don't feel like combing through over 600 pages of posts at the moment, but if I did.... what would be the over/under on the number of anecdotes that I could "bump" from both bwarbiany and clown boi?
OAM basically declared every white person in Georgia a racist based on a few people he knew.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 14, 2020, 10:16:25 AM
Yeah, that dude is one sick puppy. 

I'm good on bumping his anecdotes, as I don't want to be subjected to another one of his analogies about gay butt sex with broken condoms, or whatever it was. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 14, 2020, 10:21:25 AM
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on September 14, 2020, 10:16:25 AM
Yeah, that dude is one sick puppy.

I'm good on bumping his anecdotes, as I don't want to be subjected to another one of his analogies about gay butt sex with broken condoms, or whatever it was.
not sure I want that
I mean what would the media be without Trump and what would this message board be without OAM
pretty boring

besides I enjoy tormenting him
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 14, 2020, 10:23:37 AM


Yeah, I don't really want much to do with him after that. 

Vile, disgusting creature. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 14, 2020, 10:37:50 AM
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on September 14, 2020, 10:23:37 AM

Yeah, I don't really want much to do with him after that.

Vile, disgusting creature.
I think he realized hed gone too far and tried to apologize in his own way

as long as it doesnt happen again Im willing to give him a 2nd chance

course Im old and senile so what the hell do I know
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 14, 2020, 10:38:11 AM
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on September 14, 2020, 09:56:30 AM
I don't feel like combing through over 600 pages of posts at the moment, but if I did.... what would be the over/under on the number of anecdotes that I could "bump" from both bwarbiany and clown boi?
I was kidding.  Joke.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 14, 2020, 10:38:57 AM
Has anyone checked out Sweden's COVID results today?

I have.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 14, 2020, 10:42:01 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 14, 2020, 10:38:57 AM
Has anyone checked out Sweden's COVID results today?

I have.
I looked but dont see any cases or deaths reported
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 14, 2020, 10:48:12 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 14, 2020, 10:38:11 AM
I was kidding.  Joke.

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/tn08BuTqstZc-XswdTaKyuWjjTdDCGm9bOhIZdFAfxNpQBppZBBUtTTFuxMppn1LNzI-Y0Uc0AuSWMZM5rqXzJgeY0v91-3hU-VXfwbsjV2kmyJLLyOe9mQ-n4oIEppiV1KNVuMZp7B_kFNarklTyi-HBrQFpULvgxE)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 14, 2020, 11:05:24 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 14, 2020, 09:37:15 AM
Let me know what else you can offer.
I think my record of justifying my assertions with logic, links to experts, links to original source material when possible, speaks for itself. 

Even then, I am just an engineer and don't claim to know more about the virus than everyone here. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 14, 2020, 11:07:09 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 14, 2020, 11:05:24 AM
I think my record of justifying my assertions with logic, links to experts, links to original source material when possible, speaks for itself.

Even then, I am just an engineer and don't claim to know more about the virus than everyone here.
well as for me an ex accountant and thus am an expert in everything including the virus
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 14, 2020, 11:08:04 AM
I'm an engineer who actually had the virus. One would think I've done a little bit of research on it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 14, 2020, 11:15:30 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 14, 2020, 11:08:04 AM
I'm an engineer who actually had the virus. One would think I've done a little bit of research on it.
thanks for your anecdotal example of one 847
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 14, 2020, 11:20:32 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 14, 2020, 11:15:30 AM
thanks for your anecdotal example of one 847
There are a lot of people out there like me. That's the point. More people have had this thing than we are counting. Many more, in my belief. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 14, 2020, 11:28:34 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 14, 2020, 11:20:32 AM
There are a lot of people out there like me. That's the point. More people have had this thing than we are counting. Many more, in my belief.
you do realize I was OAMing you right?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 14, 2020, 11:29:49 AM
I wish all sports teams would do antibody tests and report back
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 14, 2020, 11:33:11 AM
The antibody test is the only reason I know I had it, other than some of the symptoms. I did that test, and then a month later did it again. They no longer exist in my system. Based on everything I've seen, they only last 3-4 months.

Yeah, I got your joke, but I really wanted to make that point about the numbers. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 14, 2020, 11:33:17 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 14, 2020, 11:08:04 AM
I'm an engineer who actually had the virus. One would think I've done a little bit of research on it.
I'm sure you have, but having the virus only gives you additional credibility on things like the symptoms you experienced, etc.

Any epidemiological information you have is informed by your research, not by having the virus. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 14, 2020, 11:34:24 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 14, 2020, 11:33:17 AM
I'm sure you have, but having the virus only gives you additional credibility on things like the symptoms you experienced, etc.

Any epidemiological information you have is informed by your research, not by having the virus.
Having the virus made me do a lot more research than many, I imagine. Can you believe that?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 14, 2020, 11:39:33 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 14, 2020, 11:33:11 AM
The antibody test is the only reason I know I had it, other than some of the symptoms. I did that test, and then a month later did it again. They no longer exist in my system. Based on everything I've seen, they only last 3-4 months.

Yeah, I got your joke, but I really wanted to make that point about the numbers.
As Ive said before I dont believe that as many more would be infected twice

I realize there are documented reinfections but far too few to support the 3-4 month theory IMHO
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 14, 2020, 11:41:27 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 14, 2020, 11:39:33 AM
As Ive said before I dont believe that as many more would be infected twice

I realize there are documented reinfections but far too few to support the 3-4 month theory IMHO
Yep, but we are really only 6 months into this thing. Lots more to learn, or wipe it out. Either way is fine by me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 14, 2020, 11:44:40 AM
People get colds caused by coronaviruses the next year.  People get the flu the next year. Based on everything we know about viruses, it's reasonable to believe that immunity is not conferred indefinitely for this one, either.

That evidence absolutely needs to inform our current public health and public policy decision-making.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 14, 2020, 11:47:26 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 14, 2020, 11:34:24 AM
Having the virus made me do a lot more research than many, I imagine. Can you believe that?
Of course. But even in this thread a bunch of people who haven't had the virus have done a lot more research than many. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 14, 2020, 01:31:48 PM
Some of my extreme fears back in the day (March):

Our health care workers would become sick and unable to work.

Hospitals would be overrun.

The distributions systems would break down (toilet paper across the board)

Civil order would break down, cops would be out sick.

It would prove more lethal than expected and we'd get it from skin contact with surfaces.

We held up pretty well versus those dire possibilities.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 14, 2020, 01:36:59 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 14, 2020, 01:31:48 PM
Some of my extreme fears back in the day (March):

Our health care workers would become sick and unable to work.

Hospitals would be overrun.

The distributions systems would break down (toilet paper across the board)

Civil order would break down, cops would be out sick.

It would prove more lethal than expected and we'd get it from skin contact with surfaces.

We held up pretty well versus those dire possibilities.

and as soon as the election is over with watch how fast optimism returns from the media
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 14, 2020, 02:07:28 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 14, 2020, 01:31:48 PM
Some of my extreme fears back in the day (March):

Our health care workers would become sick and unable to work.

Hospitals would be overrun.

The distributions systems would break down (toilet paper across the board)

Civil order would break down, cops would be out sick.

It would prove more lethal than expected and we'd get it from skin contact with surfaces.

We held up pretty well versus those dire possibilities.

We'd be doing even better if everyone would follow simple things, like wearing masks, not gathering in large(r) groups without knowing the habits of those you are with, washing hands more, etc. It's very frustrating to me. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 14, 2020, 02:15:21 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 14, 2020, 02:07:28 PM
We'd be doing even better if everyone would follow simple things, like wearing masks, not gathering in large(r) groups without knowing the habits of those you are with, washing hands more, etc. It's very frustrating to me.
I don't think large groups outside are even an issue.

Wear the mask, don't go inside to bars or restaurants that rely on recirculated air.

That's probably what we can boil it down to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 14, 2020, 02:19:39 PM
The problem with loud groups, even outside, is that people in large groups tend to talk louder, which can cause more droplets. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 14, 2020, 02:19:54 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 14, 2020, 02:15:21 PM
I don't think large groups outside are even an issue.

Wear the mask, don't go inside to bars or restaurants that rely on recirculated air.

That's probably what we can boil it down to.

positive cases and deaths continue to decrease on a weekly basis so some of us are doing the right thing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 14, 2020, 02:26:48 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 14, 2020, 02:19:39 PM
The problem with loud groups, even outside, is that people in large groups tend to talk louder, which can cause more droplets.

Haven't really seen much evidence of this in the cases though.  Inside interactions are driving the cases. 

The "large outside groups" warning is basically a holdover from March, from the early days, when we didn't know what we were dealing with, but with little global evidence supporting it.

Wear your mask, don't stay inside where there are people not wearing masks like bars, and wash your hands.  That's pretty much the best we're going to do.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 14, 2020, 02:28:21 PM
This is interesting.

https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article245665350.html (https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article245665350.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 14, 2020, 02:33:59 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 14, 2020, 02:28:21 PM
This is interesting.

https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article245665350.html (https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article245665350.html)

God works in mysterious ways 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 14, 2020, 02:35:30 PM
think about economic consequences if the common cold was not around

all the drug manufacturers etc 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 14, 2020, 02:36:19 PM
no more need for chicken soup there goes the poultry industry
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 14, 2020, 03:10:21 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 14, 2020, 02:36:19 PM
no more need for chicken soup there goes the poultry industry
The egg lobby will put a stop to the common cold vaccine, then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 14, 2020, 03:14:44 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/OGz2QlE.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on September 14, 2020, 05:29:43 PM
MSU puts 30 houses, including 23 connected with Greek life in quarantine

https://www.mlive.com/news/2020/09/ingham-county-orders-mandatory-quarantine-for-23-greek-houses-near-msu-campus.html

Wisconsin and Iowa seemingly haven't figured out their on campus breakouts either.

Really, nearly all of those kids will be fine (short term), and honestly the worst thing to do would be to send them home
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 14, 2020, 05:54:52 PM
Yeah, they need to quarantine in place. Going home would be a disaster. Of course, if they weren't stupid...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 14, 2020, 09:26:00 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 14, 2020, 05:54:52 PM
Yeah, they need to quarantine in place. Going home would be a disaster. Of course, if they weren't stupid...
...then they wouldn't be college kids.

:)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 14, 2020, 09:30:35 PM
good times, I played golf and drank beer today!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on September 14, 2020, 10:57:51 PM
Our county is still in orange which means virtual school and no sports.  Our governor admonished us a little in his press conference today about social distancing and masks.

I can honestly say when I go out almost everyone is masked up.  I’d put it at 90 percent or better.  It has gotten progressively better as the months have went by.

What the governor failed to mention is rafting companies, which are plentiful where I live, are still taking thousands of people from out of state every week down the river.  The national BSA camp is also located in our county. It hosted a motocross race this weekend which drew about 10k.

Our other issue is testing. We are testing out the wazoo.  The last couple of weeks we are testing at twice the rate of the next closest county.  So, naturally you have people screaming to stop all the testing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 15, 2020, 12:04:06 AM
Quote from: Kris60 on September 14, 2020, 10:57:51 PM
Our county is still in orange which means virtual school and no sports.  Our governor admonished us a little in his press conference today about social distancing and masks.

I can honestly say when I go out almost everyone is masked up.  I’d put it at 90 percent or better.  It has gotten progressively better as the months have went by.

What the governor failed to mention is rafting companies, which are plentiful where I live, are still taking thousands of people from out of state every week down the river.  The national BSA camp is also located in our county. It hosted a motocross race this weekend which drew about 10k.

Our other issue is testing. We are testing out the wazoo.  The last couple of weeks we are testing at twice the rate of the next closest county.  So, naturally you have people screaming to stop all the testing.
Is raw cases a factor? I usually hope not. Percentages seems better, though maybe that's easy to game as well. 

The out of state part is interesting. Seems like it's been a consistent theme everywhere, which is interesting in it's own way. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on September 15, 2020, 12:19:56 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on September 15, 2020, 12:04:06 AM
Is raw cases a factor? I usually hope not. Percentages seems better, though maybe that's easy to game as well.

The out of state part is interesting. Seems like it's been a consistent theme everywhere, which is interesting in it's own way.
Percentage of cases in relation to your population.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 15, 2020, 09:42:35 AM
So.. some chatter out there now that this thing could be lab-created. Wouldn't that be something?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 15, 2020, 10:19:58 AM
Schocking I tell you
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 15, 2020, 11:45:36 AM
'Rogue' Chinese Virologist Joins Twitter, Publishes "Smoking Gun" Evidence COVID-19 Created In Lab



https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/rogue-chinese-virologist-joins-twitter-publishes-evidence-covid-19-created-lab


(Note, I did not write the headline, nor do I make any claims about the truth or accuracy of this report, but here it is anyway...)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 15, 2020, 12:05:40 PM
this looks promising

https://scitechdaily.com/ab8-covid-19-drug-breakthrough-tiny-antibody-component-completely-neutralizes-the-sars-cov-2-virus/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on September 15, 2020, 12:27:11 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 15, 2020, 12:05:40 PM
this looks promising

https://scitechdaily.com/ab8-covid-19-drug-breakthrough-tiny-antibody-component-completely-neutralizes-the-sars-cov-2-virus/
I kind of disregarded this yesterday when I first saw it, because Pitt has been sort of in the front of a lot of this all along (I'm guessing they've gotten tons of funding since Salk developed the polio vaccine there), so there has been a "breakthrough" reported every few weeks, that isn't really something.

Hell at one point a grad student involved in the research was murdered, and local news speculated whether it was related, when it turns out he was cheating on his live in girlfriend, and his lover murdered him.

But I'm seeing this getting national footing today.  Very promising.

The best take I saw was:

"This seems right, Pitt is going to defeat COVID this week, and then lose to an ear infection next week"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 15, 2020, 12:30:58 PM
Quote from: ELA on September 15, 2020, 12:27:11 PM
I kind of disregarded this yesterday when I first saw it, because Pitt has been sort of in the front of a lot of this all along (I'm guessing they've gotten tons of funding since Salk developed the polio vaccine there), so there has been a "breakthrough" reported every few weeks, that isn't really something.

Hell at one point a grad student involved in the research was murdered, and local news speculated whether it was related, when it turns out he was cheating on his live in girlfriend, and his lover murdered him.

But I'm seeing this getting national footing today.  Very promising.

The best take I saw was:

"This seems right, Pitt is going to defeat COVID this week, and then lose to an ear infection next week"
you seem pretty pessimistic 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on September 15, 2020, 12:43:41 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 15, 2020, 12:30:58 PM
you seem pretty pessimistic
Huh?  I literally said "very promising"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 15, 2020, 12:53:42 PM
Quote from: ELA on September 15, 2020, 12:43:41 PM
Huh?  I literally said "very promising"
ok great


I was referring to your last line and I guess I took it wrong
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 15, 2020, 01:03:41 PM
ya see what happens, Larry?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 15, 2020, 01:14:02 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 15, 2020, 01:03:41 PM
ya see what happens, Larry?
Was someone trying to find a stranger in the Alps?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 15, 2020, 01:18:18 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 15, 2020, 01:14:02 PM
Was someone trying to find a stranger in the Alps?
https://y.yarn.co/ad498eee-0874-426e-a078-1e84ead50db0.mp4?1600190277482

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on September 15, 2020, 01:18:47 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 15, 2020, 12:53:42 PM
ok great


I was referring to your last line and I guess I took it wrong
No, it's a Pitt football joke.  How they'll beat Clemson, and turn around and lose to Youngstown State
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 15, 2020, 01:41:14 PM
Quote from: ELA on September 15, 2020, 01:18:47 PM
No, it's a Pitt football joke.  How they'll beat Clemson, and turn around and lose to Youngstown State
The Pitt super weapon is just charging. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 16, 2020, 09:08:03 AM
So, here's one major problem with attempting to use our health system's processes and IT systems to evaluate the health impact of this virus in real time-- systems and processes that were never, EVER intended to provide real-time data.  In the past, testing for viruses causing flu or cold, have only been looked at in real time for getting the individual his or her results, to determine medical treatment and course of action.  Beyond that, the back-end logging, processing, aggregating, and reporting of those test results at a municipal, county, state, or national level, were only ever used for researching larger trends either months, or years, after the fact.

But now, municipalities, counties, and states are attempting to use that data in real time, to determine such things as restaurant and store openings, risk of large gatherings, and many other factors that have significant social and economic impact.  And as we know, that data can be misleading, or flat-out wrong.

Like this:

https://twitter.com/LisaGray_HouTX/status/1305966120852238339?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1305966120852238339%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_2&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.surlyhorns.com%2Fboard%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FLisaGray_HouTX%2Fstatus%2F1305966120852238339

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 16, 2020, 09:15:18 AM
I posted a few days ago the national peak looked like July 16 so this is in line with the Texas peak
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 16, 2020, 10:18:00 AM
Quote from: utee94 on September 16, 2020, 09:08:03 AM
So, here's one major problem with attempting to use our health system's processes and IT systems to evaluate the health impact of this virus in real time-- systems and processes that were never, EVER intended to provide real-time data.  
well, maybe something good will come of this
an upgrade!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 16, 2020, 10:23:20 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 16, 2020, 10:18:00 AM
well, maybe something good will come of this
an upgrade!
I'm pretty sure utee and I can agree that they need to buy lots of servers and storage! 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 16, 2020, 10:25:06 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 16, 2020, 10:23:20 AM
I'm pretty sure utee and I can agree that they need to buy lots of servers and storage!
word


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on September 16, 2020, 02:12:01 PM
Yeah, that's been a major problem all along.

Our county didn't start disclosing the date range of tests until after we had our first day over 300, and people panicked.  They then noted that it had to do with a backlog at one site, that was counting 60+ days all at once.  The next day it was back down to 120.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 16, 2020, 02:14:24 PM
My doctor told me last week that my negative test result will not be reported. The test was for a procedure I had done Friday and that's it.

Kinda f'd up in my opinion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on September 16, 2020, 02:18:50 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 16, 2020, 02:14:24 PM
My doctor told me last week that my negative test result will not be reported. The test was for a procedure I had done Friday and that's it.

Kinda f'd up in my opinion.
Eh, I disagree.  You didn't take the test due to symptoms or contact, you took it due to a requirement.  You wouldn't have otherwise even been tested, so I don't want that data in the system either way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 16, 2020, 02:21:43 PM
Had I tested positive, it would have been in the system. You don't see the problem here?

Lots of people test positive with no symptoms. They go in the system (at least I hope so).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 16, 2020, 02:25:36 PM
If a test is performed its results should be logged.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 16, 2020, 02:41:58 PM
all test results should be logged

hospitalizations and deaths should be reported to the public

IF they are caused by COVID-19
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on September 16, 2020, 02:48:39 PM
If we are testing everyone, regularly, I'd be on board with that.

I would be interested in splitting up the positivity numbers, to see what it is for people who were tested due to symptoms, vs. people who were tested vs. contact tracing.  In that event, then yes, add another category under people who were tested mandatorily for work/procedures/travel, etc.

But the combined data of people who could possibly have it due to being symptomatic and/or contact tracing, is not aided by also throwing in the arbitrary group of people who were having elective surgery.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 16, 2020, 02:52:27 PM
Quote from: ELA on September 16, 2020, 02:48:39 PM
If we are testing everyone, regularly, I'd be on board with that.

I would be interested in splitting up the positivity numbers, to see what it is for people who were tested due to symptoms, vs. people who were tested vs. contact tracing.  In that event, then yes, add another category under people who were tested mandatorily for work/procedures/travel, etc.

But the combined data of people who could possibly have it due to being symptomatic and/or contact tracing, is not aided by also throwing in the arbitrary group of people who were having elective surgery.

Last Friday 1,100 UT students were tested because they wanted to go to the football game and the test was required by the university, with a negative result, before they were allowed to do so.  Otherwise those students wouldn't have been tested at all.  None were symptomatic.

Yet 95 of them tested positive.

Those results should be logged, as should be the other 1,005 that tested negative.

So I don't agree with your position.  Regardless of WHY a test was administered, its results should be logged.  Logging ONLY the positives leads to an artificially high % of positives in the population.  And communities are using those positivity rates to determine really important things like school openings, restaurant openings, etc. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 16, 2020, 02:52:46 PM
I know there's so much emphasis put on %positive results, and to an extent I get it... Generally you have to assume that if the %positive out of total tests is high, that there are a bunch of people not getting tested. If the %positive out of total is low, it suggests you're testing regime is widespread enough to catch most of the actual cases. 

But it seems like a statistic that would be WAY too easy to throw false or misleading information. It's a data machete when you need a data scalpel. 

Which IMHO is why the %positive metric should be important for epidemiologists, but when used as the basis for a whole bunch of things like what portions of the economy are open or on lockdown, it's not the right tool for the job. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 16, 2020, 02:55:10 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 16, 2020, 02:52:46 PM
I know there's so much emphasis put on %positive results, and to an extent I get it... Generally you have to assume that if the %positive out of total tests is high, that there are a bunch of people not getting tested. If the %positive out of total is low, it suggests you're testing regime is widespread enough to catch most of the actual cases.

But it seems like a statistic that would be WAY too easy to throw false or misleading information. It's a data machete when you need a data scalpel.

Which IMHO is why the %positive metric should be important for epidemiologists, but when used as the basis for a whole bunch of things like what portions of the economy are open or on lockdown, it's not the right tool for the job.



And I absolutely agree with this 100%.  

But as long as it is being used for those purposes, even though I disagree with it being used for those purposes, then we can't just throw out large groupings of negative results while still counting the positive results.  It makes a bad problem even worse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 16, 2020, 02:59:52 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 16, 2020, 02:55:10 PM
And I absolutely agree with this 100%. 

But as long as it is being used for those purposes, even though I disagree with it being used for those purposes, then we can't just throw out large groupings of negative results while still counting the positive results.  It makes a bad problem even worse.
Agree. Badge's negative result should be counted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 16, 2020, 03:04:24 PM
Quote from: ELA on September 16, 2020, 02:48:39 PM
If we are testing everyone, regularly, I'd be on board with that.

I would be interested in splitting up the positivity numbers, to see what it is for people who were tested due to symptoms, vs. people who were tested vs. contact tracing.  In that event, then yes, add another category under people who were tested mandatorily for work/procedures/travel, etc.

But the combined data of people who could possibly have it due to being symptomatic and/or contact tracing, is not aided by also throwing in the arbitrary group of people who were having elective surgery.
Nobody elects to have an old man scope.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on September 16, 2020, 03:10:41 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 16, 2020, 02:52:46 PM
I know there's so much emphasis put on %positive results, and to an extent I get it... Generally you have to assume that if the %positive out of total tests is high, that there are a bunch of people not getting tested. If the %positive out of total is low, it suggests you're testing regime is widespread enough to catch most of the actual cases.

But it seems like a statistic that would be WAY too easy to throw false or misleading information. It's a data machete when you need a data scalpel.

Which IMHO is why the %positive metric should be important for epidemiologists, but when used as the basis for a whole bunch of things like what portions of the economy are open or on lockdown, it's not the right tool for the job.


Yes, this I agree with, but the problem is that it is.

As long as that's the case, then we need to set a defined parameter that makes sense, AND determine what is acceptable rate within that.  There is value in contact tracing and helping researchers understand the virus in arbitrary testing for admission to certain things, but for public policy decisions it doesn't.

The reason 8% or 10% or whatever is the threshold for what is concerning is because we are only testing a specific group.  If you widen who is getting tested, then that gets a whole lot lower.  That's why the metrics the sports, doing mandatory testing, are using, are much, much lower.  If you were simply testing everyone, for no reason, at all, and were still getting 8% positivity rate, that would be horrifying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 16, 2020, 03:12:00 PM
Quote from: ELA on September 16, 2020, 03:10:41 PM
Yes, this I agree with, but the problem is that it is.

As long as that's the case, then we need to set a defined parameter that makes sense, AND determine what is acceptable rate within that.  There is value in contact tracing and helping researchers understand the virus in arbitrary testing for admission to certain things, but for public policy decisions it doesn't.

The reason 8% or 10% or whatever is the threshold for what is concerning is because we are only testing a specific group.  If you widen who is getting tested, then that gets a whole lot lower.  That's why the metrics the sports, doing mandatory testing, are using, are much, much lower.  If you were simply testing everyone, for no reason, at all, and were still getting 8% positivity rate, that would be horrifying.

You can't count a positive result, and omit a negative result, for the same test.  It skews the data in an artificial direction.  This is the fundamental problem with your position.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on September 16, 2020, 03:14:40 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 16, 2020, 03:12:00 PM
You can't count a positive result, and omit a negative result, for the same test.  It skews the data in an artificial direction.  This is the fundamental problem with your position.


I would not count it in either direction for calculating positivity rates.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on September 16, 2020, 09:23:43 PM
My 9 yr old had some symptoms (fever,  sore throat), we ruled out Strep w a test, then her CV test came back inconclusive.   I was like, what!?  Apparently some low % of tests are just that.  I was later told by this care facility, and im not so sure I put much credibility in this,  those inconclusive tests were reported /defaulted to positive earlier during this CV period.  2nd test was neg.  Id like to know how that gets logged.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on September 16, 2020, 09:36:58 PM
Curse you George Soros!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on September 17, 2020, 12:41:21 AM
Ha. The reality is, here you are parents of a kid...in school, she has a sibling in another school, meanwhile I coach her vball team and another vball team.  As a parent,  You can't have an inconclusive test.  You need a +/-.  The dominoes here are scary.  Luckily she was negative,  but going the other way, that would have pretty much meant the poor Mom that helps me but knows nothing of vball has to run the teams,  my kids stay home, my wife can't do surgeries for two weeks at a minimum, which screws up the surgery center schedule and now we have a 9 yr old w CV with 3 exposed people in our house. Even w a giant house, Its a cluster.  BTW,  the way the schools handle this,  her pod of 9 other 3rd graders would be sent home for 2 weeks.  They basically keep these younger kids in small pods wo any exposure to the other 3rd graders.  Its interesting all the playbooks being run on this.

Thus far, about 5 weeks in, her elementary district has had 1 kid positive out of about 1200.  The kids have all since returned.  The middle and HS have various hybrid plans.

Btw, I find it to be impossible that my wife hasn't been exposed to or had CV given her close contact w 100s of nurses, surgeons and patients since March. Not many cases in late March or April but plenty since.  She's an anesthesiologist and is literally in the face of this all day every day.  Thus, shes become quite hardened against woes and worries of teachers and others during CV.  I love sending her the thermo image gif of a patient spitting on the OR table when she's tubing a patient. 
This is where I love WFH.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on September 17, 2020, 07:20:58 AM
Wooooo boy! An anesthesiologist! Someone married over their head!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 17, 2020, 08:39:59 AM
Quote from: MarqHusker on September 17, 2020, 12:41:21 AM
Ha. The reality is, here you are parents of a kid...in school, she has a sibling in another school, meanwhile I coach her vball team and another vball team.  As a parent,  You can't have an inconclusive test.  You need a +/-.  The dominoes here are scary.  Luckily she was negative,  but going the other way, that would have pretty much meant the poor Mom that helps me but knows nothing of vball has to run the teams,  my kids stay home, my wife can't do surgeries for two weeks at a minimum, which screws up the surgery center schedule and now we have a 9 yr old w CV with 3 exposed people in our house. Even w a giant house, Its a cluster.  BTW,  the way the schools handle this,  her pod of 9 other 3rd graders would be sent home for 2 weeks.  They basically keep these younger kids in small pods wo any exposure to the other 3rd graders.  Its interesting all the playbooks being run on this.

Thus far, about 5 weeks in, her elementary district has had 1 kid positive out of about 1200.  The kids have all since returned.  The middle and HS have various hybrid plans.

Btw, I find it to be impossible that my wife hasn't been exposed to or had CV given her close contact w 100s of nurses, surgeons and patients since March. Not many cases in late March or April but plenty since.  She's an anesthesiologist and is literally in the face of this all day every day.  Thus, shes become quite hardened against woes and worries of teachers and others during CV.  I love sending her the thermo image gif of a patient spitting on the OR table when she's tubing a patient. 
This is where I love WFH.

Yeah, my wife is an outpatient physical therapist.  She sees 12-15 patients per day, 5 days per week.  Some of those are repeats so she has something like 30-40 unique  contacts each week.  She's a manual therapist and must work hands-on, so she's within 0 inches to a foot of her patients for 30 minutes or more, 12-15 times per day.  And at any given time in her clinic there are 25 patients, therapists, and staff.  They're all wearing masks but "social distance" between therapist and patient is impossible.  She's been doing this since March, minus the 6 weeks she was furloughed.  She feels about the same as your wife regarding the woes and worries of others.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 17, 2020, 09:45:31 AM
I'm doing PT twice a week (same time as the wife).  Our therapist is quite good I think.  We wear a mask and wash our hands before starting.  She wipes down the gear before we enter.  They don't seem to be very busy, not many elective surgeries of course.

The surgeon's office is usually lightly attended as well.  

Neither of the therapists at this office has had it, which is a good sign it isn't incredibly contagious I suspect.

Georgia appears to be leveling off now around 2,000 new cases reported per day, no longer dropping.  School?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on September 17, 2020, 10:08:58 AM
I bet it's a gas, gas, gas. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 17, 2020, 10:24:04 AM
COVID-19 emails from Nashville mayor's office show disturbing revelation


On June 30th, contact tracing was given a small view of coronavirus clusters. Construction and nursing homes were found to be causing problems with more than a thousand cases traced to each category, but bars and restaurants reported just 22 cases.

Leslie Waller from the health department asks, “This isn’t going to be publicly released, right? Just info for Mayor’s Office?"

“Correct, not for public consumption,” writes senior advisor Benjamin Eagles.

A month later, the health department was asked point blank about the rumor there are only 80 cases traced to bars and restaurants.

Reporter Nate Rau asks, “The figure you gave of 'more than 80' does lead to a natural question: If there have been over 20,000 positive cases of COVID-19 in Davidson and only 80 or so are traced to restaurants and bars, doesn’t that mean restaurants and bars aren’t a very big problem?"

Health department official Brian Todd asked five health department officials, "Please advise how you recommend I respond. "


https://fox17.com/news/local/covid-19-emails-from-nashville-mayors-office-show-disturbing-revelation (https://fox17.com/news/local/covid-19-emails-from-nashville-mayors-office-show-disturbing-revelation)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 17, 2020, 10:29:34 AM
How many of the 20,000 were traced to some other point of contact?  Maybe very few of them?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 17, 2020, 10:31:23 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 17, 2020, 10:29:34 AM
How many of the 20,000 were traced to some other point of contact?  Maybe very few of them?
Most likely originating from Russian bots.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 17, 2020, 11:36:14 AM
New Subject Offering: “COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2 and the Pandemic”

In Fall 2020, all MIT students and the general public are welcome to join Professors Richard Young and Facundo Batista as they discuss the science of the pandemic during this new class. Special guest speakers include: Anthony Fauci, David Baltimore, Britt Glaunsinger, Bruce Walker, Eric Lander, Michel Nussenzweig, Akiko Iwasaki, Arlene Sharpe, Kizzmekia Corbett, and others. The class will run from September 1, 2020 through December 8, 2020 and begin each Tuesday at 11:30 a.m. ET. Please note that MIT classes generally begin five minutes after the scheduled start time. See the syllabus for lecture details.

https://biology.mit.edu/undergraduate/current-students/subject-offerings/covid-19-sars-cov-2-and-the-pandemic/ (https://biology.mit.edu/undergraduate/current-students/subject-offerings/covid-19-sars-cov-2-and-the-pandemic/)

if youse get bored...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 17, 2020, 11:55:56 AM
JOHNSTON, Iowa (AP) — Gov. Kim Reynolds criticized the Des Moines school district Wednesday for not abandoning its online learning program and returning its more than 33,000 students to classrooms, saying other districts have managed to meet her requirement for in-person learning even as the state remains a national hotspot for coronavirus infections.

Reynolds called it “disappointing” that the Des Moines school board on Tuesday night approved a plan that continues solely online learning.

Education Department Director Ann Lebo said officials would begin a process to potentially punish the district for not being in compliance. Lebo also affirmed the possibility Des Moines students could be required to take additional classes after school usually ends next spring.

Des Moines officials argue it’s too risky for students and staff to return to classrooms under Reynolds’ order, which requires that schools hold at least half of classes in-person unless their community has a 15% coronavirus positivity rate. Health care experts typically call for a positivity rate of 5% or lower.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 17, 2020, 03:36:09 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 17, 2020, 10:31:23 AM
Most likely originating from Russian bots.
I "boosted" my Whoa Nellie sale on facebook and among the 100ish likes were some fake accounts who 'liked' with the angry face - all faux-religious 'people' hating on the NFL. 

Very odd.  Their algorithm knew enough to link it with football and to link the kneeling business with football, but not distinguish college and pro and it totally whiffed on everyone liking a sale.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 17, 2020, 04:43:43 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 17, 2020, 03:36:09 PM
I "boosted" my Whoa Nellie sale on facebook and among the 100ish likes were some fake accounts who 'liked' with the angry face - all faux-religious 'people' hating on the NFL.

Very odd.  Their algorithm knew enough to link it with football and to link the kneeling business with football, but not distinguish college and pro and it totally whiffed on everyone liking a sale. 
Sounds like the Russian bots aren't perfect?  :)

That's actually really interesting though.  Have you noticed any effects on your sales?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 17, 2020, 04:54:55 PM
only 222 traffic deaths in Iowa this year

well over 1200 COVID deaths, depending on how you count them

makes me wonder how they count traffic deaths
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 17, 2020, 05:00:12 PM
Might be heating back up a bit in GA now.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 17, 2020, 05:02:21 PM
All the tests have been done on the Texans and the Rams players after last weeks game

no positives
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 17, 2020, 05:23:28 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 17, 2020, 04:43:43 PM
Sounds like the Russian bots aren't perfect?  :)

That's actually really interesting though.  Have you noticed any effects on your sales?
Yes, 6 new orders yesterday and 1 this morning.  

And I was worried my sale wasn't good enough....

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 18, 2020, 02:22:36 PM
Lots of countries across Europe now seeing second waves, and in some cases they're larger than the first.  So far it's in cases though, and hospitalizations aren't necessarily tracking the way they did the first time.

Area under the curve theory certainly still seems viable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 18, 2020, 02:29:55 PM
France has more reported cases per day than they did in April, and it's rising.  As you note, the death toll is very low at this point.

Sweden is seeing about 250 new cases per day, Georgia is closer to 2,000 now.

Sweden's death figures are single digit.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 18, 2020, 02:43:58 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 18, 2020, 02:29:55 PM
France has more reported cases per day than they did in April, and it's rising.  As you note, the death toll is very low at this point.

Sweden is seeing about 250 new cases per day, Georgia is closer to 2,000 now.

Sweden's death figures are single digit.



You better look out, you're going to get chastised for saying "Sweden" too many times. ;)

As far as death toll, I sincerely hope it remains low for them (and everyone else) this second time around.  There are some legitimate reasons to believe it can, and will.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 18, 2020, 03:52:12 PM
can't move to Sweden

too much winter weather

and I'm sure they put beans in their chili and think grilling meat is BBQ
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 18, 2020, 04:09:41 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 18, 2020, 02:29:55 PM
Sweden is seeing about 250 new cases per day, Georgia is closer to 2,000 now.

Sweden's death figures are single digit.
I still don't get it. 

Compare Georgia and Sweden.

GA: 
Population 10.6M
28K cases/1M
616 deaths/1M
282K tests/1M
Current run rate: ~2200 cases/day
Current death rate: ~40 deaths/day

Sweden:
Population 10.1M
8.7K cases/1M
580 deaths/1M
~138K tests/1M
Current run rate: ~240 cases/day
Current death rate: 1-2 deaths/day

I don't quite think "area under the curve" makes sense, because Georgia has more current area under their curve and while cases/deaths have declined from their peak, they have not fallen like they have in Sweden. With only 8.7 cases/1M (0.8% of the population) I can't think that they have reached herd immunity.

America's numbers have stabilized... At very high levels. 40K cases / ~1K deaths per day. If we were talking "area under the curve", the spikes we had in July should have mostly taken out that area. 

Sweden's numbers are tiny... But why?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 18, 2020, 04:14:59 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 18, 2020, 04:09:41 PM
I still don't get it.

Compare Georgia and Sweden.

GA:
Population 10.6M
28K cases/1M
616 deaths/1M
282K tests/1M
Current run rate: ~2200 cases/day
Current death rate: ~40 deaths/day

Sweden:
Population 10.1M
8.7K cases/1M
580 deaths/1M
~138K tests/1M
Current run rate: ~240 cases/day
Current death rate: 1-2 deaths/day

I don't quite think "area under the curve" makes sense, because Georgia has more current area under their curve and while cases/deaths have declined from their peak, they have not fallen like they have in Sweden. With only 8.7 cases/1M (0.8% of the population) I can't think that they have reached herd immunity.

America's numbers have stabilized... At very high levels. 40K cases / ~1K deaths per day. If we were talking "area under the curve", the spikes we had in July should have mostly taken out that area.

Sweden's numbers are tiny... But why? 

America isn't homogenous or monolithic.  It's really more accurate to think of it as 50 separate countries, if you're trying to compare the way it's been handled in different regions/geos, to other countries around the globe.  So the spikes in July were Texas/Cali/Florida.  The spikes in March/April were NY/NJ/PA.  And other areas are spiking now, that weren't, back in March or July.

But I'm also not claiming we've exhausted our "area under the curve" just yet even in Texas or Florida or Cali.  I don't think "we're there" any more than France was "there" back in May.  I think we'll all continue to see spikes until the virus runs its course.

Sweden definitely looks different though.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 18, 2020, 04:31:07 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 18, 2020, 04:09:41 PM
I still don't get it.

Compare Georgia and Sweden.

Sweden's numbers are tiny... But why? 
maybe Sweden reporting is much different
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 18, 2020, 04:37:59 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 18, 2020, 04:14:59 PM
But I'm also not claiming we've exhausted our "area under the curve" just yet even in Texas or Florida or Cali.  I don't think "we're there" any more than France was "there" back in May.  I think we'll all continue to see spikes until the virus runs its course.

Sweden definitely looks different though. 
But I don't think anyone can claim with their numbers that Sweden has exhausted it's area under the curve either. 

Yet their numbers are tiny. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 18, 2020, 05:11:38 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 18, 2020, 04:37:59 PM
But I don't think anyone can claim with their numbers that Sweden has exhausted it's area under the curve either.

Yet their numbers are tiny.
Like I said, Sweden looks different than pretty much everyone else.  Don't know if they're just voluntarily doing a better job of keeping distant, or if there's something else at work.

I will say that if I were an epidemiologist, if that were my actual job, I'd probably be researching VERY deeply into what's happening there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 18, 2020, 05:28:55 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 18, 2020, 05:11:38 PM
Like I said, Sweden looks different than pretty much everyone else.  Don't know if they're just voluntarily doing a better job of keeping distant, or if there's something else at work.

I will say that if I were an epidemiologist, if that were my actual job, I'd probably be researching VERY deeply into what's happening there.
I know that at the start of this, their demographics were unique. They have a lot of single-person households, and very few three-generation households. Their workforce was already more WFH capable than a lot of other nations. And they don't have the level of anti-mask Karens that we do. 

Their COVID experience was much worse than their "peers" of Norway and Finland, as well. So to the extent that demographics and culture play into it, there's that.

But I have no explanation for how they turned their cases and deaths so low. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on September 18, 2020, 05:31:24 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 18, 2020, 05:28:55 PM
I know that at the start of this, their demographics were unique. They have a lot of single-person households, and very few three-generation households. Their workforce was already more WFH capable than a lot of other nations. And they don't have the level of anti-mask Karens that we do.

Their COVID experience was much worse than their "peers" of Norway and Finland, as well. So to the extent that demographics and culture play into it, there's that.

But I have no explanation for how they turned their cases and deaths so low.
Methinks a lot of people will be getting their PhDs in epidemiology trying to come up with an explanation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on September 18, 2020, 05:32:12 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 18, 2020, 03:52:12 PM
can't move to Sweden

too much winter weather

and I'm sure they put beans in their chili and think grilling meat is BBQ
They serve fish soaked in lye as a delicacy. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 18, 2020, 05:35:34 PM
one of the few things I won't eat
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 18, 2020, 05:39:24 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 18, 2020, 05:35:34 PM
one of the few things I won't eat
I'd try it. Just to say I've done so. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 18, 2020, 05:59:23 PM
Sweden got hit pretty hard back in April, and then ... whoosh, despite many assertions they would crash and burn.

It's an amazing story really.  Meanwhile France is going vertical.  I think France is on the verge of a re-shut down, which I also think won't really do more than delay things.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 18, 2020, 06:16:46 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 18, 2020, 05:59:23 PM
Sweden got hit pretty hard back in April, and then ... whoosh, despite many assertions they would crash and burn.

It's an amazing story really.  Meanwhile France is going vertical.  I think France is on the verge of a re-shut down, which I also think won't really do more than delay things.
People act like the Sweden approach was "do nothing; life is normal."

Here's an article that points out that they actually did quite a few things... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7356107/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 18, 2020, 06:20:51 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 18, 2020, 05:39:24 PM
I'd try it. Just to say I've done so.
I tried it more than 2 or 3 times
a lot of it in this area, back in the day.. not as prevalent today

large  Norwegian groups
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 18, 2020, 06:26:44 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 18, 2020, 06:20:51 PM
I tried it more than 2 or 3 times
a lot of it in this area, back in the day.. not as prevalent today

large  Norwegian groups
Ahh, got it. I wasn't sure if you were in the "I'll never even try it" camp. If you've tried it and know you don't like it, I get that. 

I've tried coconut. Can't freakin stand it. Won't eat it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 18, 2020, 06:28:29 PM
one person's description.....................

The word “lutefisk” translates to “lye fish,” which is the first clue regarding this mystery meal, but it looks unlike any seafood most people have ever seen. It’s white, semi-translucent, and, weirdest of all, gelatinous. Honestly, it looks like a cross between fat cells and some type of jellyfish Jell-O (apologies for that mental image). Okay, enough already, what in the heck is it?

Lutefisk is whitefish — which refers to several species of finned fish such as cod, ling, or burbot — that has been air-dried and may or may not be salted. (The unsalted version is also known as “stockfish.”) It is first soaked in cold water for five or six days, with the water changed daily. The now-saturated fish is then soaked again for two days in an unchanged solution of cold water and lye. Lye, for the record, is a substance obtained by leaching ashes, and is also known as sodium hydroxide. After this weeklong process, the fish loses half of its protein and gains a jelly-like consistency. At this point it is also caustic (you may remember lye as the stuff Tyler Durden used in Fight Club to cause chemical burns and also make soap), so it needs another four to six days of soaking in cold water, refreshed daily, before it is ready to be cooked. Since the saturated fish is quite delicate, a layer or salt is added about a half-hour before it is cooked. This releases some of the water being held. It is then placed in a sealed pan and steam cooked on low heat for 20-25 minutes, or wrapped in aluminum foil and baked at 435 degrees F for 40-50 minutes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 18, 2020, 06:42:08 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 18, 2020, 06:16:46 PM
People act like the Sweden approach was "do nothing; life is normal."

Here's an article that points out that they actually did quite a few things... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7356107/
Even so, that does not explain how they got hammered early on and are now skating.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 18, 2020, 06:43:39 PM
"Lye" is a generic term for sodium hydroxide, "base", the opposite of acid.  It is used to make soap by saponifying animal fat.

The company for whom I used to work has some history in the area.

I'm always amazed reading about 19th century chemists and the stuff they managed to do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 18, 2020, 06:45:49 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 18, 2020, 06:42:08 PM
Even so, that does not explain how they got hammered early on and are now skating.
I know. But if it was an "area under the curve" answer, it wouldn't explain why Georgia isn't skating right now. 

I think that we're looking at Sweden with an extreme outsiders view, and we're trying to answer questions we're not capable given a lack of knowledge about the real situation on the ground.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 18, 2020, 07:52:44 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 18, 2020, 06:45:49 PM
I know. But if it was an "area under the curve" answer, it wouldn't explain why Georgia isn't skating right now.

I think that we're looking at Sweden with an extreme outsiders view, and we're trying to answer questions we're not capable given a lack of knowledge about the real situation on the ground.
I love the comparisons between Sweden and Georgia.  Go get 10 people from each place and tell me there are another 2 groups of people on this planet who are more different in every way. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 18, 2020, 09:33:24 PM
OAM misses THE POINT as usual.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 18, 2020, 11:25:52 PM
I think you're being oblivious.  You've posted about Sweden roughly 147 times.  Swedes aren't Americans.  They're not proudly ignorant.  They don't hold their freedoms above logic.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 19, 2020, 06:04:57 AM
The "experiment" in Sweden is fascinating, to me, whether it was the right path or not is another question.  I realize some perhaps don't wish to discuss any different patha and the results therefrom.  I suppose some think the ONLY path would be a long term economic shut down, without regard for what happened in Sweden.

I mention it often because it's interesting, to me, another data point, which is perhaps trying to tell us something.  The predictions for Sweden in April were all dire, and the disaster did not happen.  It's remarkable, whatever the reason.

The wife thinks it is cultural, the same as why Germany has managed pretty well.  She thinks culturally the "Latin" peoples are very different from the Nordic/Teutonic types (which obviously is true in a lot of ways) and that explains the different experiences.

The Asian countries also provide a different experience, place like Honk Kong obviously are highly urbanized, and have had a pretty good experience with this virus, the major variable being cultural wearing of masks nearly all the time by nearly everyone.

I think if one doesn't look at ALL the data and try and piece it together, one will get stuck with an incorrect conclusion that may feel comfortable, but still is wrong.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 19, 2020, 06:08:01 AM
The other rather odd thing in Georgia is that the high case per capita rates are in rural counties for the most part.

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/ (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/)

Some of this may reflect the chicken processing industry.  Atlanta metro is relatively low as compared with several rural counties.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 19, 2020, 07:56:31 AM
or rural folks are simply culturally different
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 19, 2020, 09:29:06 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/0bjA4rY.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 19, 2020, 09:31:41 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on September 18, 2020, 05:31:24 PM
Methinks a lot of people will be getting their PhDs in epidemiology trying to come up with an explanation.
I't already piled High & Deep around here
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on September 20, 2020, 02:55:26 AM
Delaware County Iowa is a COVID-19 hot spot. The nursing home has positive test residents, and positive test staff. The wifey and I went to the window of our former neighbor last night. We talked to her over the phone. There is a delay between talking and hearing. She is beloved by us. She was in good spirit. She said the lock down was not hard on her. She had lots to do in her room. She was a school teacher. She cannot walk. But she thinks! She reads books and keeps up on current events. I wanted to wrap my arms around her but couldn't. She and I were gardeners, but we grew different stuff. Every summer I would meet and greet her and ask her to take me on a tour of her gardens.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 20, 2020, 07:47:46 AM
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/19/europe/europe-second-wave-coronavirus-intl/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/19/europe/europe-second-wave-coronavirus-intl/index.html)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 20, 2020, 07:49:40 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 19, 2020, 07:56:31 AM
or rural folks are simply culturally different
Ehhh, how so?

I sometimes wonder if it is a case of us just not respecting randomness enough. Like sometimes it’s just a case that a person went to the wrong high school football game on the wrong night or something like that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 20, 2020, 08:00:25 AM
The randomness could well be the factor is there really are superspreaders.

Usually, in a rural area folks are more spread apart obviously, but they do "go into town" and perhaps feel they can ignore this as an urban issue.  The meat packing operations obviously are a factor in some cases (probably related to where the workers live).

There are too many variables.

Georgia appears to be ticking back up.  Almost every day for the past ten has reported more new cases than the 7 day average, and hospital use is starting to climb as is percent positives.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 20, 2020, 09:29:51 AM
Florida is holding its own, for a while now. % positive is running at around 5% for the most part. Case numbers are high, but they are testing around 70K people per day now.

We leave tomorrow morning. Be there on Wednesday. Get tested on Thursday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 20, 2020, 09:38:12 AM
https://api.nationalgeographic.com/distribution/public/amp/science/2020/09/coronavirus-origins-misinformation-yan-report-fact-check-cvd
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 20, 2020, 09:44:50 AM
I'm ruling out nothing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 20, 2020, 10:15:45 AM
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2254662-scientists-dismiss-new-claims-that-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-lab/?fbclid=IwAR1PlLyksEOI45jt8RTtxMHe0h9XK2iD5pvqEzg-JF0JDAaeIvrAmGiDB-0 (https://www.newscientist.com/article/2254662-scientists-dismiss-new-claims-that-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-lab/?fbclid=IwAR1PlLyksEOI45jt8RTtxMHe0h9XK2iD5pvqEzg-JF0JDAaeIvrAmGiDB-0)

Seems like a simple enough question to resolve once and for all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 20, 2020, 10:23:19 AM
I'm ruling out nothing. It's too early still.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 20, 2020, 11:49:27 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 20, 2020, 10:15:45 AM
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2254662-scientists-dismiss-new-claims-that-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-lab/?fbclid=IwAR1PlLyksEOI45jt8RTtxMHe0h9XK2iD5pvqEzg-JF0JDAaeIvrAmGiDB-0 (https://www.newscientist.com/article/2254662-scientists-dismiss-new-claims-that-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-lab/?fbclid=IwAR1PlLyksEOI45jt8RTtxMHe0h9XK2iD5pvqEzg-JF0JDAaeIvrAmGiDB-0)

Seems like a simple enough question to resolve once and for all.
cant read the entire article but it appears that its not saying the virus isnt from a lab but is just not agreeing with this one scientist's theory of proof
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 20, 2020, 04:18:24 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 20, 2020, 10:23:19 AM
I'm ruling out nothing. It's too early still.
How prudent of you.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 20, 2020, 04:19:12 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 19, 2020, 07:56:31 AM
or rural folks are simply culturally different
If I said this, I'd get ravaged.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 20, 2020, 05:47:36 PM
I think rural folks in Sweden are culturally different from rural folks in say south Georgia.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 20, 2020, 08:40:29 PM
rural folks have a different mindset

more independant

less likely to wear a mask

more likely to take their chances and go out to a football game

less likely to be snowflakes 

more likely to drive pickups and have a larger carbon foot print

regardless of their country or state
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 20, 2020, 09:40:23 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 20, 2020, 08:40:29 PM
rural folks have a different mindset

more independant

less likely to wear a mask

more likely to take their chances and go out to a football game

less likely to be snowflakes

more likely to drive pickups and have a larger carbon foot print

regardless of their country or state
and they all from time to time will say

"hold my beer and watch this"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 20, 2020, 09:43:04 PM
more likely to eat road kill
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 21, 2020, 04:17:30 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 20, 2020, 09:40:23 PM
and they all from time to time will say

"hold my beer and watch this"
It's the "snowflakes" driving ya'll to the hospital after some of those instances.  You know, the people who do the risk-reward math and don't ALWAYS shrug and say, "fugg it."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 21, 2020, 07:22:43 AM
Living in the city made me understand how dependent I am now on "infrastructure".  I've spent time in the country when I was a kid and they basically managed on their on for most everything.  They did have TVA electricity.  The REA was a pretty large thing in the country.

That is one thing that kicks your life from the Middle Ages to near modernity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 21, 2020, 09:14:12 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 21, 2020, 04:17:30 AM
It's the "snowflakes" driving ya'll to the hospital after some of those instances.  You know, the people who do the risk-reward math and don't ALWAYS shrug and say, "fugg it."
yep the same ones who sit back and let others do all the work while they stay in their safe places
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 21, 2020, 09:24:11 AM
Most folks who contract COVID don't need a hospital obviously.  I can understand the mindset of an independently minded rural person who is younger and healthy being somewhat fatalistic about it.  They often get dinged up a bit doing manual labor and try and keep going, like athletes.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on September 22, 2020, 11:37:53 AM
Well, that escalated quickly. I need to be brought into the surgery suite Thursday to remove some stitches that haven't worked themselves out, and part of that involved getting swabbed for the COVID.

Also, I'm expecting to see a severe outbreak of COVID on campus at the end of next week. 

http://www.citypages.com/news/u-of-m-students-arrive-on-campus-party-in-huge-crowds/572482891?fbclid=IwAR3wUe6UUu-5tGBjvltSK01bcmY1_C94bAb6tEnhNGFeFnzpgZMsTFRUCEY

I guess the good news is that the outbreak in Madison appears to have burned itself out. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 22, 2020, 01:27:44 PM
From the video evidence shown, they're all outside.  Unless they're sharing beer bongs and doing tequila shots from one-another's asscracks, I don't expect much of anything to result from the activities that were recorded.

Now, the house parties and apartment parties that were NOT shown, might be something else entirely.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 22, 2020, 05:09:00 PM
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.19.20197749v1 (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.19.20197749v1)


My wife's "sister-friend" in Brazil told her most of her staff have COVID.  So, any trip for us down there is off, definitely.

She and her son operate a large fazenda in the country.  We had some notion of visiting as she has a driver pick us up at the airport.  Nyet.  I thought being in the boonies might be OK.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 22, 2020, 06:12:11 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/22/us-coronavirus-death-toll-tops-200000-just-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/22/us-coronavirus-death-toll-tops-200000-just-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-.html)


Not a good forecast.  Hopefully it's wrong.

In the past 8 weeks, I've had a flu shot (today), both shingles shots (they made me sick), and a pneumonia shot.

I can talk to Bill Gates at any time using my tooth fillings now.

We chat once a week or so.  He likes Apple stock at these levels.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 22, 2020, 06:44:55 PM
Getting my flu shot and my tetanus booster on Thursday. Kids will get their flu shots this weekend. 

That said, I think the flu season this year will be nonexistent. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 22, 2020, 07:04:03 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 22, 2020, 06:44:55 PM
Getting my flu shot and my tetanus booster on Thursday. Kids will get their flu shots this weekend.

That said, I think the flu season this year will be nonexistent.
Interesting

why
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 22, 2020, 07:47:06 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 22, 2020, 07:04:03 PM
Interesting

why
BTW by "nonexistent" I mean "80-90% smaller than usual". 

But the reasoning is that the flu is less transmissible than COVID, so to the extent that we're all trying to avoid COVID, we're going to avoid the flu MUCH more effectively. 

COVID hit the southern hemisphere, just as it hit the northern hemisphere, in March. But the difference was that the northern hemisphere was coming out of flu season while the southern was going into flu season. Much of the southern hemisphere effectively didn't have a flu season, as a result, because people were WFH, social distancing, washing hands, wearing masks, etc. 

So I expect the flu season to be tiny compared to any normal year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 22, 2020, 08:05:00 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 22, 2020, 07:47:06 PM
BTW by "nonexistent" I mean "80-90% smaller than usual".

But the reasoning is that the flu is less transmissible than COVID, so to the extent that we're all trying to avoid COVID, we're going to avoid the flu MUCH more effectively.

COVID hit the southern hemisphere, just as it hit the northern hemisphere, in March. But the difference was that the northern hemisphere was coming out of flu season while the southern was going into flu season. Much of the southern hemisphere effectively didn't have a flu season, as a result, because people were WFH, social distancing, washing hands, wearing masks, etc.

So I expect the flu season to be tiny compared to any normal year.
well last year we had an estimated 29 Million flu cases so we have our work cut out for us
plus when a vaccine hits for covid it will be a natural tendency to relax our protection

but lets hope your right
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 22, 2020, 08:19:26 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 22, 2020, 08:05:00 PM
well last year we had an estimated 29 Million flu cases so we have our work cut out for us
plus when a vaccine hits for covid it will be a natural tendency to relax our protection

but lets hope your right
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/09/12/the-southern-hemisphere-skipped-flu-season-in-2020

If we beat COVID with a vaccine but the flu season is normal, that's a win IMHO. If we're still trying to control COVID and the benefit is a super-weak flu season, at least it's a silver lining for the gray cloud that has been COVID. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 22, 2020, 08:40:08 PM
Yes, all of the measures we're taking to prevent the transmission of the novel coronavirus, are even more effective against the flu which is less transmissible.  I, too, expect an almost non-existent flu season.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 22, 2020, 09:02:41 PM
My friend in Vegas has liver cancer.  No visitors because of covid.  His wife is a mess.  Fun stuff.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 22, 2020, 09:18:58 PM
sorry to hear that OAM

they are doing some really great things in cancer treatment these days so theres always hope
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 22, 2020, 10:41:07 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 22, 2020, 01:27:44 PM
From the video evidence shown, they're all outside.  Unless they're sharing beer bongs and doing tequila shots from one-another's asscracks
Leave you sordid past out of this - not that there's anything wrong with that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 22, 2020, 10:44:02 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 22, 2020, 06:12:11 PM
I can talk to Bill Gates at any time using my tooth fillings now.

We chat once a week or so.  He likes Apple stock at these levels.
BS- he like Alcohol Wipes - and masks.And some media stocks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 22, 2020, 10:59:21 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on September 22, 2020, 10:41:07 PM
Leave you sordid past out of this - not that there's anything wrong with that
Not me I can assure you.  The "butt luge" wasn't a thing when I was in college.


https://twitter.com/ChadoftheChaz/status/1241101269701283840?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1241101269701283840%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailywire.com%2Fnews%2Fflorida-spring-breakers-return-to-college-test-positive-for-covid-19
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 22, 2020, 11:09:03 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 22, 2020, 10:59:21 PM
https://twitter.com/ChadoftheChaz/status/1241101269701283840?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1241101269701283840%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailywire.com%2Fnews%2Fflorida-spring-breakers-return-to-college-test-positive-for-covid-19
You have to be shitting me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 22, 2020, 11:28:51 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 22, 2020, 09:02:41 PM
My friend in Vegas has liver cancer.  No visitors because of covid.  His wife is a mess.  Fun stuff.
Sorry dude. That sucks. Fvck cancer. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 22, 2020, 11:29:31 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on September 22, 2020, 11:09:03 PM
You have to be shitting me
I think they're shitting each other. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 23, 2020, 01:07:37 AM
Not sure if you'll be whipping a batch of that up anytime soon
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 23, 2020, 06:49:41 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 20, 2020, 04:18:24 PM
How prudent of you. 
Thanks for the contribution.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 23, 2020, 07:16:34 AM
 (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/22/us-coronavirus-death-toll-tops-200000-just-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-.html)https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/23/coronavirus-vaccine-johnson-johnson-begins-late-stage-covid-19-trial-.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/23/coronavirus-vaccine-johnson-johnson-begins-late-stage-covid-19-trial-.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on September 23, 2020, 10:31:37 AM
About to get real for me.  My dad, who is just shy of being 77, has COVID.  He started feeling poorly yesterday morning, but put off going to the Dr. until yesterday afternoon.  My mom took him to the ER yesterday afternoon/early evening.  They had a positive test last night ( I didn't know they could get the results so fast).  He's been in poor health for years.  He had open heart surgery in 2018 and never really fully recovered.  He's been in and out of the hospital for the last 2-3 years.  

He's been short of breath and borderline COPD for years before that as well.  The last time I saw him he was telling me how fast he gets out of breath.  So far the hospital gave him some antibiotics and sent him home AFAIK, I have not talked to my mom this morning to find out all the details.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 23, 2020, 10:34:37 AM
bad news, but good luck

many more are recovering today than a few months ago
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 23, 2020, 10:47:51 AM
Quote from: Gigem on September 23, 2020, 10:31:37 AM
About to get real for me.  My dad, who is just shy of being 77, has COVID.  He started feeling poorly yesterday morning, but put off going to the Dr. until yesterday afternoon.  My mom took him to the ER yesterday afternoon/early evening.  They had a positive test last night ( I didn't know they could get the results so fast).  He's been in poor health for years.  He had open heart surgery in 2018 and never really fully recovered.  He's been in and out of the hospital for the last 2-3 years. 

He's been short of breath and borderline COPD for years before that as well.  The last time I saw him he was telling me how fast he gets out of breath.  So far the hospital gave him some antibiotics and sent him home AFAIK, I have not talked to my mom this morning to find out all the details. 
I wish you the best.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 23, 2020, 10:50:02 AM
If they sent him home, maybe it means he's doing pretty well overall and they don't see a need for hospitalization.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 23, 2020, 11:09:47 AM
Quote from: Gigem on September 23, 2020, 10:31:37 AM
About to get real for me.  My dad, who is just shy of being 77, has COVID.  He started feeling poorly yesterday morning, but put off going to the Dr. until yesterday afternoon.  My mom took him to the ER yesterday afternoon/early evening.  They had a positive test last night ( I didn't know they could get the results so fast).  He's been in poor health for years.  He had open heart surgery in 2018 and never really fully recovered.  He's been in and out of the hospital for the last 2-3 years. 

He's been short of breath and borderline COPD for years before that as well.  The last time I saw him he was telling me how fast he gets out of breath.  So far the hospital gave him some antibiotics and sent him home AFAIK, I have not talked to my mom this morning to find out all the details. 
Good luck. Make sure she watches him closely for any change in symptoms, and don't hesitate to go back if anything new pops up. Don't want to wait until it gets "too bad" before intervening further. 

Are you serious that the hospital gave him antibiotics? For a virus? Was there a reason he needed antibiotics?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 23, 2020, 11:14:58 AM
Quote from: Gigem on September 23, 2020, 10:31:37 AM
About to get real for me.  My dad, who is just shy of being 77, has COVID.  He started feeling poorly yesterday morning, but put off going to the Dr. until yesterday afternoon.  My mom took him to the ER yesterday afternoon/early evening.  They had a positive test last night ( I didn't know they could get the results so fast).  He's been in poor health for years.  He had open heart surgery in 2018 and never really fully recovered.  He's been in and out of the hospital for the last 2-3 years. 

He's been short of breath and borderline COPD for years before that as well.  The last time I saw him he was telling me how fast he gets out of breath.  So far the hospital gave him some antibiotics and sent him home AFAIK, I have not talked to my mom this morning to find out all the details. 
Hang in there gigem.  Both of my inlaws had it about 6 weeks ago, and they fared pretty well.  80 and 82 yo, and my FIL is pretty obese and has diabetes.  Neither had any of the respiratory issues though, and it seems like those are the worst from a severity/hospitalization standpoint.

Quote from: bwarbiany on September 23, 2020, 11:09:47 AM


Are you serious that the hospital gave him antibiotics? For a virus? Was there a reason he needed antibiotics?

Maybe they're worried about a secondary infection that developed from bacteriological sources?  That's about all I can think of.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 23, 2020, 11:26:25 AM
Yeah, COVID obviously can lead to complications like pneumonia that can be bacterial etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 23, 2020, 11:30:06 AM
Either way I'd ask for a second opinion on what to do from my primary care physician. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on September 23, 2020, 12:10:21 PM
The AB was for pneumonia in one lung, as stated. He’s also had a very bad deep wound that has been healing for almost 3 years. Lots of other issues like this. My mom has been in touch with the PCP the whole time. She said he’s doing ok today. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 23, 2020, 12:29:14 PM
good news
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 23, 2020, 12:55:19 PM
Have any of you heard that if you get the virus and get over it the insurance co will still consider that you have a preexisting condition?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 23, 2020, 01:28:33 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 23, 2020, 12:55:19 PM
Have any of you heard that if you get the virus and get over it the insurance co will still consider that you have a preexisting condition?
I thought that under the ACA you can't be charged more for a preexisting condition. Didn't that introduce community rating? 

I don't follow this closely because in my line of work I don't get insurance through the exchange...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 23, 2020, 01:49:26 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 23, 2020, 01:28:33 PM
I thought that under the ACA you can't be charged more for a preexisting condition. Didn't that introduce community rating?

I don't follow this closely because in my line of work I don't get insurance through the exchange...
if it is considered preexisting it would mostly only affect folks getting insurance who were not previously covered
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 23, 2020, 02:17:28 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 23, 2020, 01:49:26 PM
if it is considered preexisting it would mostly only affect folks getting insurance who were not previously covered
Before ACA that was a problem. Anyone not previously covered, or even who had a lapse in coverage before getting covered again, would have preexisting condition problems. I think in the individual market, even changing from one coverage to another could be a problem, so if you got a condition that would then be considered preexisting by a new insurer, you were basically stuck with yours [forever]. 

But I thought the ACA basically outlawed all of that. Again, I don't get insurance through the exchanges, and heck haven't changed jobs since the Bush administration, so I haven't really had direct reason to care about it. So I could be 100% wrong. But I thought that was one of the major things the ACA touted was protections for people with preexisting conditions. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 23, 2020, 05:01:40 PM
France apparently is shutting down again, in stages.  Restaurants in Marseille and Aix are closed period.  Paris has new limits.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 23, 2020, 05:20:55 PM
If their hospitals are in danger of being overrun, then that's a good plan.

Otherwise they're just shifting their spikes down the t-axis.  Area under the curve and all.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 23, 2020, 05:35:30 PM
France is reporting over 10,000 new cases per day now, on a population 1/5th ours.  US new cases are around 35,000.

And France numbers are going up, ours are trending down.

They have 951 cases reported as serious or critical, the US has quite a few more (14,000).

The really interesting country is Sweden, I don't know if that has been discussed here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 23, 2020, 05:47:43 PM
We're about 4-5 days from the world reaching 1M deaths per Worldometers...

...which is, last I checked, a good 6 weeks before the election...

...good thing [for them] someone didn't accept that bet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 23, 2020, 05:57:23 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 23, 2020, 05:47:43 PM
We're about 4-5 days from the world reaching 1M deaths per Worldometers...



And that's with China and Russia just flat-out lying, you could probably add 300,000-500,000 on top of that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 23, 2020, 06:07:27 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 23, 2020, 05:57:23 PM
And that's with China and Russia just flat-out lying, you could probably add 300,000-500,000 on top of that.
Plus all the deaths Sweden buried under the tundra :57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 23, 2020, 07:25:06 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 23, 2020, 06:07:27 PM
Plus all the deaths Sweden buried under the tundra :57:
HA!  Now you've gone and done it!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 23, 2020, 08:00:00 PM
Arizona is trending way down, which is fantastic.  We're going to some in-person schooling where I'm at, but I'll still be teaching online for those who didn't want to come in.  

I can't help but find a huge uptick inevitable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 24, 2020, 10:04:33 AM
we are another day closer to a vaccine 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 24, 2020, 10:17:01 AM
Sweden had 335 new reported cases yesterday.  Georgia is running around 1,500 per day.

Sweden is reporting deaths per day under 5 now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 10:58:48 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 24, 2020, 10:04:33 AM
we are another day closer to a vaccine
Unless we don't ever get an effective vaccine.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 24, 2020, 10:59:29 AM
we don't need the negativity here
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 11:01:00 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 24, 2020, 10:59:29 AM
we don't need the negativity here

Hey, I'm very hopeful we will.

But I don't believe we will.

Regardless, we can't pin our hopes on it.  And we certainly can't make policy based on it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 24, 2020, 11:16:22 AM
agree, it's not real until it's real
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 24, 2020, 11:25:40 AM
My kid in Texas had it in March, 32, in great physical condition, found it very unpleasant, is fine now.  I was trying to figure out a way to get out there to take care of him if needed.  He told me not to come, he'd manage.

He did, walking the dog was apparently one issue, but the dog seemed to understand, and then getting food delivered was an issue at that point in time.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 24, 2020, 11:34:10 AM
Quote from: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 11:01:00 AM
Hey, I'm very hopeful we will.

But I don't believe we will.

Regardless, we can't pin our hopes on it.  And we certainly can't make policy based on it.


hey man we're way past that

we've moved on to how the football season will do

the finger of fate has written and now moves on
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 24, 2020, 12:03:27 PM
I am pretty optimistic on an effective vaccine.  I also think a lot of folks won't want to get it because of the President or the CDC or Bill Gates or Soros and the Kochs or the illuminati or the egg lobby.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 12:14:04 PM
If we ever get a vaccine, I suspect a large percentage of the country will willingly get it.  But it'll take a while.  I'll certainly let others go first and wait a few months.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 24, 2020, 12:16:13 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 12:14:04 PM
If we ever get a vaccine, I suspect a large percentage of the country will willingly get it.  But it'll take a while.  I'll certainly let others go first and wait a few months.
Exactly. I'll willingly get the vaccine.

But I'll flex my privilege and not be first in line, because I can WFH and distance effectively. Someone else can be the guinea pigs for the first few months and I'll follow afterwards. 

Maybe I'll test it out on the kids first, especially if they're going to be physically in school. If they get the vaccine that's one more bit of protection keeping me from virus exposure. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 24, 2020, 12:19:11 PM
Speaking of, Orange County moved from the Purple Tier [bad] to the Red Tier [less bad] a few weeks ago, so as of Tuesday kids are technically allowed to go back to school. Mine are scheduled to return Sep 29, Oct 1, and Oct 8, depending on district and grade. All schools still offer a distance learning option for people who chose not to send their kids back. 

Thankfully my special-needs son is in a district with a "hybrid" model splitting between morning and afternoon classes, but the special needs classes is full-day instruction. He needs that, so I'm happy they didn't go half-day.

The other school was going to make masks voluntary for kids. They pivoted and made them mandatory, which is great. I won't have to rely just on my own threats to make sure that the kids wear their masks 100% of the time when they have friends who don't... Everyone has to wear them. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 12:22:44 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 24, 2020, 12:16:13 PM
Exactly. I'll willingly get the vaccine.

But I'll flex my privilege and not be first in line, because I can WFH and distance effectively. Someone else can be the guinea pigs for the first few months and I'll follow afterwards.

Maybe I'll test it out on the kids first, especially if they're going to be physically in school. If they get the vaccine that's one more bit of protection keeping me from virus exposure.
Yeah, my 11yo son will be going to in-person school in 3 weeks.  About 50% of kids his age are already back, but we opted to wait until the end of the first grading period to switch him from online to in-person.

My 13yo daughter will be going to in-person school in 5 weeks, which would be the end of her second grading period.  Again, about half the students are already back, and they're anticipating it'll be close to 90% when my daughter goes back.

Our district is almost 3 weeks in with schools running at 50% of kids whose parents voluntarily chose the in-person option, and so far no cases or other issues reported at our regional schools.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 24, 2020, 12:46:13 PM
Ours is requiring a morning temperature check using a Bluetooth thermometer and phone app, and you have to certify with the app that they're good to go before they're allowed out of the car at drop-off.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 24, 2020, 12:47:29 PM
I don't really get the T check notion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 12:50:22 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 24, 2020, 12:46:13 PM
Ours is requiring a morning temperature check using a Bluetooth thermometer and phone app, and you have to certify with the app that they're good to go before they're allowed out of the car at drop-off.
Yeah we haven't gone in-person yet, but I think our district has something similar.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 24, 2020, 12:54:52 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 24, 2020, 12:47:29 PM
I don't really get the T check notion.
Yeah, I don't know how strong of a correlation there is between being contagious and having a fever. Obviously if you have a fever you're sick, but if you don't have a fever it doesn't mean you're safe.

But you're not supposed to send your kid to school with a fever even before COVID. So I do look at it as one extra useful safety measure where they might catch a student who otherwise felt fine enough despite a fever to go to school, and/or to catch parents who DGAF and would send their kids anyway to get them out of the house, and thus should DIAF. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 01:04:48 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 24, 2020, 12:54:52 PM
Yeah, I don't know how strong of a correlation there is between being contagious and having a fever. Obviously if you have a fever you're sick, but if you don't have a fever it doesn't mean you're safe.

But you're not supposed to send your kid to school with a fever even before COVID. So I do look at it as one extra useful safety measure where they might catch a student who otherwise felt fine enough despite a fever to go to school, and/or to catch parents who DGAF and would send their kids anyway to get them out of the house, and thus should DIAF.
Yeah I guess it is all this.  A temperature check won't stop every potentially contagious child, but it might stop one, or a handful.  It's a simple enough step.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 24, 2020, 01:07:55 PM
I get checked here often, before a lot of restaurant visits, before every PT and doc visit.

I'm always around 97°F.  The last time at PT I first measured 91°F.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 24, 2020, 01:32:02 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 01:04:48 PM
Yeah I guess it is all this.  A temperature check won't stop every potentially contagious child, but it might stop one, or a handful.  It's a simple enough step.
could be a practice that remains long after COVID
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 24, 2020, 01:41:53 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 24, 2020, 01:32:02 PM
could be a practice that remains long after COVID
I was thinking of that, but I doubt parents will put up with it beyond COVID. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 24, 2020, 02:05:19 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 12:14:04 PM
If we ever get a vaccine, I suspect a large percentage of the country will willingly get it.  But it'll take a while.  I'll certainly let others go first and wait a few months.


not everyone has to get the shot for a difference to be made 

Im thinking 50 to 60 percent will make a huge difference like herd immunity
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 02:10:59 PM
50 to 60 percent of a 100% effective vaccine, plus everyone that's already had it, and any potential T-cell help, would almost certainly reach herd immunity.

If the vaccine is only 25% effective, or ineffective, well, that's something else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 24, 2020, 02:27:00 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 02:10:59 PM
50 to 60 percent of a 100% effective vaccine, plus everyone that's already had it, and any potential T-cell help, would almost certainly reach herd immunity.

If the vaccine is only 25% effective, or ineffective, well, that's something else.
well you would think after 30,000 tests in phase 3 that would be unlikely
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 24, 2020, 03:09:06 PM
if a hundred cases can be prevented in each state, that would certainly help
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 24, 2020, 03:14:04 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 02:10:59 PM
If the vaccine is only 25% effective, or ineffective, well, that's something else.
I'd guess if that shows up in Phase 3 the vaccine would not be approved.

They probably need >50% and no side effects.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 24, 2020, 03:17:46 PM
no side effects???

I see plenty of commercials for drugs that might have been approved with horrid side effects, even death
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 03:26:21 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 24, 2020, 02:27:00 PM
well you would think after 30,000 tests in phase 3 that would be unlikely
The phased trials don't really have anything to do with that.  Viruses mutate-- inevitably, always.  Which is one reason why even the flu vaccine is only 25% effective (or less) some seasons, even when they toss multiple strains into the flu vaccine. 

We have not once, ever, developed an effective vaccine for any of the numerous coronaviruses we've faced in the past, coronaviruses that have been with us for centuries or even millennia.  There are some different reasons for that, and one could be that we've never tried this hard and applied this level of resources to it, in all of human history.  But another factor is that coronaviruses are tricky bugs.

So yeah, I think it's entirely possible and even likely that we won't ever have an effective vaccine for this, and that it will take its toll on humanity as a novel coronavirus, and that eventually it will have done all the damage it can to the most vulnerable humans, and will no longer be novel and will retreat to being just one of many well-known coronaviruses that harm a certain percentage of the global population every single year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 03:27:34 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 24, 2020, 03:14:04 PM
I'd guess if that shows up in Phase 3 the vaccine would not be approved.

They probably need >50% and no side effects.
Like I said, it could be effective right now, and not effective by the time it hits the market, as the novel coronavirus mutates.  

I mean, it's known and inevitable that it will mutate.  The only question is, will any potential vaccine still be able to affect it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 24, 2020, 03:30:08 PM
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-to-know-about-mutation-and-covid-19#More-infectious (https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-to-know-about-mutation-and-covid-19#More-infectious)

Optimistic information there, I don't know if it's accurate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 03:33:51 PM
I'm always open to optimistic news.  We won't know, 'til we know, but I like smiling so there you have it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 24, 2020, 03:34:40 PM
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00502-w (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00502-w)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 24, 2020, 05:36:46 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 03:26:21 PM
The phased trials don't really have anything to do with that.  Viruses mutate-- inevitably, always.  Which is one reason why even the flu vaccine is only 25% effective (or less) some seasons, even when they toss multiple strains into the flu vaccine.

We have not once, ever, developed an effective vaccine for any of the numerous coronaviruses we've faced in the past, coronaviruses that have been with us for centuries or even millennia.  There are some different reasons for that, and one could be that we've never tried this hard and applied this level of resources to it, in all of human history.  But another factor is that coronaviruses are tricky bugs.
Viruses mutate, but this one appears to mutate much more slowly than the flu. From what I understand, the structure of an influenza virus is much simpler than that of a coronavirus, which makes it easier and more common for mutations to happen, and while many of those mutations make the virus fail, the higher mutation rate makes it more likely that it will find another successful mutation each time. 

BTW we have developed an effective vaccine for coronavirus... In animals. We might have successfully done so for SARS or MERS, but neither of those have garnered as much resources as this. SARS because it wasn't highly transmissible and died out on its own; MERS because it's not as highly transmissible so although it hasn't died out, it's nothing like COVID.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 05:41:55 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 24, 2020, 05:36:46 PM
Viruses mutate, but this one appears to mutate much more slowly than the flu. From what I understand, the structure of an influenza virus is much simpler than that of a coronavirus, which makes it easier and more common for mutations to happen, and while many of those mutations make the virus fail, the higher mutation rate makes it more likely that it will find another successful mutation each time.

BTW we have developed an effective vaccine for coronavirus... In animals. We might have successfully done so for SARS or MERS, but neither of those have garnered as much resources as this. SARS because it wasn't highly transmissible and died out on its own; MERS because it's not as highly transmissible so although it hasn't died out, it's nothing like COVID.

So you just agreed with everything I stated. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 24, 2020, 05:57:49 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 05:41:55 PM
So you just agreed with everything I stated. :)
No, I explained why the flu vaccine isn't as effective as others... Because flu mutates VERY quickly, whereas coronavirus doesn't.

And I contradicted your claim that we've never developed an effective coronavirus vaccine. We have. We just haven't done it in humans, partly because we've never really faced one like this and applied the resources to it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 06:03:43 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 24, 2020, 05:57:49 PM
No, I explained why the flu vaccine isn't as effective as others... Because flu mutates VERY quickly, whereas coronavirus doesn't.

And I contradicted your claim that we've never developed an effective coronavirus vaccine. We have. We just haven't done it in humans, partly because we've never really faced one like this and applied the resources to it.

Coronavirus mutates.  For sure.  Which is what I stated.  We already know it has done so numerous times since we first encountered it early this year.  Not sure if that counts as "quickly" but the REAL issue is whether or not it will mutate in a way that will render whatever vaccine we attempt to develop, useless.

And on the second point, you're being overly pedantic, which you already know.  No offense intended to animals, but I don't give a rat's ass about vaccines developed for animals.  We've never, in the history of our civilization, developed an effective vaccine for humans, against any coronavirus.  

So we're in agreement then. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 24, 2020, 06:07:39 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 06:03:43 PM
So we're in agreement then. :)
Beer is good. Yes we are.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 24, 2020, 06:13:12 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 24, 2020, 06:07:39 PM
Beer is good. Yes we are.
Amen, brutha!

Speaking of which, @MrNubbz (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=17) would be excited to know that the world-famous Austin-based Celis Brewery is about to release a Vienna-style lager aptly named "Beer Hall."  This marks the first time I've ever seen them do that.  I'll admit, I'm pretty excited about it myself.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CFhwZPolr0W/

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 25, 2020, 06:09:31 AM
Looks quenching to say the least.I've had 6 different Fest Bier offerings from the crafts.Can't say as I've been disappointed.Send a sixer from that Austin Affiliate willing to take another try
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 25, 2020, 08:35:07 AM
GA had a small upsurge in reported new cases which has abated and the trend is headed down again.  Sweden meanwhile is doing really well for some reason.

France is not doing well at all.  They are gradually closing stuff down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2020, 08:53:15 AM
Stay healthy and contract the virus at the same time. Worked for me, suckas. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 25, 2020, 09:05:06 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2020, 08:53:15 AM
Stay healthy and contract the virus at the same time. Worked for me, suckas.
Shoot, my 80+ year-old inlaws are done with it now, too.  I'm over here wondering whether or not I should risk going to the grocery store for some milk that my kids desperately need, while they're cruising through casinos in Louisiana without a care in the world!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 25, 2020, 09:32:44 AM
Sweden's worst day in late June was 1,311 new cases.  Right after that the figure plummeted.  They are running about 400 a day now, and perhaps slightly trending up.  Deaths are 1-2-3 per day now.

Georgia's worse day around the same time period was 3,800 or so, now down around 1,400 new cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2020, 09:33:50 AM
I got news for ya. 

You've already had it and didn't know it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 25, 2020, 09:50:09 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2020, 09:33:50 AM
I got news for ya.

You've already had it and didn't know it.
Could be.  I continue to have a cough that I haven't been able to shake since March.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 25, 2020, 10:36:40 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2020, 09:33:50 AM
I got news for ya.

You've already had it and didn't know it.
I picked up a negative test. Haven't don't the antibodies yet. Need to find some excuse for that. Maybe blood donation or a checkup that might be overdue. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2020, 10:52:30 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on September 25, 2020, 10:36:40 AM
I picked up a negative test. Haven't don't the antibodies yet. Need to find some excuse for that. Maybe blood donation or a checkup that might be overdue.
I had antibodies after 2 months, and none at 4 months. My T cells are working now.

Haven't had a cold since, by the way. I've read that the antibodies/T cells act to ward off the common cold too. The vaccine will as well.

I'd be nervous if I was the owner of a company like Nyquil or something.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 25, 2020, 12:29:45 PM
I suspect P&G isn't going to worry about Nyquil sales that much.

They seem to be fairing quite well with sales of cleaning products these days, and toilet paper, which obviously is a critical need when you have a cold.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on September 25, 2020, 01:11:37 PM
There's also some research now that the amount of droplets you initially get, may determine how severe your case is.  So masks may be helpful there, in preventing the number of droplets.

Also means some people may have been exposed, but to such a low dose, that it effectively worked as a vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2020, 01:17:15 PM
Yessir. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 25, 2020, 01:20:39 PM
Quote from: ELA on September 25, 2020, 01:11:37 PM
There's also some research now that the amount of droplets you initially get, may determine how severe your case is.  So masks may be helpful there, in preventing the number of droplets.

Also means some people may have been exposed, but to such a low dose, that it effectively worked as a vaccine.
I hope this is false.  
Children emit MUCH more droplets on average.  I know there hasn't been some massive issue with schools being back in session, but again, this thing doesn't progress on our timeline.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 25, 2020, 01:23:13 PM
It is tough to tease out how much may be due to schools in session.  Many are not of course.  I thought Georgia was creeping up, but that trend has "died down".

France is seeing a real problem and they restarted schools.  Their public schools are all Federal.  How much is due to schools and how much due to August vacations is impossible to know.  The wife thinks it's mostly the latter.

The south there is particularly hard hit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on September 25, 2020, 01:27:21 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 25, 2020, 01:23:13 PM
It is tough to tease out how much may be due to schools in session.  Many are not of course.  I thought Georgia was creeping up, but that trend has "died down".

France is seeing a real problem and they restarted schools.  Their public schools are all Federal.  How much is due to schools and how much due to August vacations is impossible to know.  The wife thinks it's mostly the latter.

The south there is particularly hard hit.
They aren't tracking by schools here.  I get that it's tough to do.  It certainly doesn't seem to be leading to an overall rise, but might be useful to know if there is a cluster at X middle school, just like at X Bar.  The only people who know if its the case though I suppose would be the teachers and administrators in the building, and they aren't talking.  I believe a school in Michigan shut down after just 4 cases, because all 4 kids were in the same elementary class, with no out of school contact.  It was a rural school, and rarely is it going to be that clean.  4 kids get it.  Was it on the bus?  Do they all play basketball together?  Is it a coincidence?  TOugh to make the right call, because if you shut down prematurely, certain parents are pissed; if you fail to shut down and there is a larger outbreak...well...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 25, 2020, 01:53:11 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 25, 2020, 01:20:39 PM
I hope this is false. 
Children emit MUCH more droplets on average.  I know there hasn't been some massive issue with schools being back in session, but again, this thing doesn't progress on our timeline. 
Hence why the schools my kids are going to are mandating masks for all students at all time. 

I realize there's probably a lot of the country that isn't doing that, but IMHO if you're putting kids back into school, wearing a mask should be a part of that. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2020, 02:28:50 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 25, 2020, 09:32:44 AM
Sweden's worst day in late June was 1,311 new cases.  Right after that the figure plummeted.  They are running about 400 a day now, and perhaps slightly trending up.  Deaths are 1-2-3 per day now.

Georgia's worse day around the same time period was 3,800 or so, now down around 1,400 new cases.
I care more about % positive than I do raw case numbers. Where is GA right now with that? FL is hovering about 4% now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 25, 2020, 03:19:16 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2020, 02:28:50 PM
I care more about % positive than I do raw case numbers. Where is GA right now with that? FL is hovering about 4% now.
But % positive can just be an artifact of raw cases/test numbers though, so I don't find it to be particularly enlightening either.

Really, the only way to compare the severity/impact from one region to another, is to look at a normalized view of hospitalizations/ICU/deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 25, 2020, 03:21:28 PM
Testing here is way down because nobody much wants to be tested unless they show symptoms or have to for work.

Testing of a rep pop sample would be interesting, but not of a self selecting population.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 25, 2020, 03:24:34 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 25, 2020, 03:19:16 PM
But % positive can just be an artifact of raw cases/test numbers though, so I don't find it to be particularly enlightening either.

Really, the only way to compare the severity/impact from one region to another, is to look at a normalized view of hospitalizations/ICU/deaths.
Yep. And as you point out, "normalized" is key, so it's adjusted for population...

Something like this:


(https://i.imgur.com/LgC0qTK.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 25, 2020, 03:30:03 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 25, 2020, 03:21:28 PM
Testing here is way down because nobody much wants to be tested unless they show symptoms
This is 'Murica in a nutshell.

There's a virus?
It's 75% asymptomatic?
I'll get tested if I feel sick.



~???
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 25, 2020, 03:33:40 PM
The US does pretty on well testing per capita relative to other larger nations.  I certainly prefer not to be tested again.  I didn't like it, at all.


The UK is slightly ahead of the US, as is Denmark.  The rest of Europe is behind.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2020, 03:35:47 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 25, 2020, 03:33:40 PM
The US does pretty on well testing per capita relative to other larger nations.  I certainly prefer not to be tested again.  I didn't like it, at all.


The UK is slightly ahead of the US, as is Denmark.  The rest of Europe is behind.
The newer tests are much better. But, if you don't feel sick, you shouldn't do it again. Takes up too much resources for right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 25, 2020, 03:43:11 PM
I was tested August 5.  The governor here shut down a test facility that could handle 5,000 tests a day.  They were doing 150 or so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 25, 2020, 04:07:05 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 25, 2020, 03:30:03 PM
This is 'Murica in a nutshell.

There's a virus?
It's 75% asymptomatic?
I'll get tested if I feel sick.

~???
What's so strange about that? 

I'd get a test if I have symptoms or if due to contact tracing I have a significant risk due to exposure. 

I have no reason to get tested just for funsies. I'm gonna at least make them work for it to implant the chip. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 25, 2020, 04:16:10 PM
I find it absurd to criticize Americans for not wanting to line up and get tested.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on September 25, 2020, 04:20:01 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 25, 2020, 04:16:10 PM
I find it absurd to criticize Americans for not wanting to line up and get tested. 


Yeah, I don't get this.  If we can't keep up with testing demands that's one problem.  If people who are showing symptoms or have had contact with someone who tested positive are avoiding testing, that's also a problem.

But people not signing up for arbitrary tests for no reason, that's fine.  It would probably skew % positive numbers down
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 25, 2020, 04:38:23 PM
Just saw on the news that Florida has opened up all restaurants  and bars both inside and out
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2020, 04:41:52 PM
Yes, they did. It will be interesting to see how things go.

I suspect things will be OK, as everyone I see is wearing masks and keep their distance. Also, just because they are allowed to do so doesn't mean the owners of the places are going to allow full capacity. I'm betting on not many doing that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 25, 2020, 07:05:58 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2020, 04:41:52 PM
Yes, they did. It will be interesting predictable to see how things go.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 25, 2020, 07:08:43 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 25, 2020, 04:07:05 PM
 I'm gonna at least make them work for it to implant the chip.
The joke is more real than I'd like it to be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on September 26, 2020, 12:29:42 AM
Local #s, is this bad, or good? What are your #s?
(https://i.imgur.com/sPbAGaq.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 26, 2020, 08:16:41 AM
So, Fro, give me your prediction for Florida, rather than just being snarky.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 26, 2020, 08:46:08 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 25, 2020, 04:38:23 PM
Just saw on the news that Florida has opened up all restaurants  and bars both inside and out
Yes, this doesn't mean they all will of course.  Individuals can decide not to patronize any that look crowded.  Or not.

Most restaurants here are laboring to get even partial seating near full, at least the nicer ones are.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

A (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/)ctive cases in Florida have been trending down, even as schools reopened.  There are several plausible explanations for this.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

S (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/)weden MIGHT be seeing a slight increase trend in new cases.  They report 400-500 per day, Georgia is 1400 or so.  Georgia still has limits on large gatherings of course, night clubs, etc.

It drives me crazy trying to tease out a solid explanation for all the data.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 26, 2020, 08:55:46 AM
The Florida Governor is allowing the people of his state to choose. 

Imagine that. A public official keeping his nose out of private business. Who'd have thunk it?



"We never closed down over the summer," he said, later adding: "We have been open. The final piece to the puzzle was this capacity limitation on the restaurants at 50%. So that was the announcement today that brought that in for a landing. A lot of those folks in that industry have had a really, really rough time."


"We have to have a situation where individuals can make decisions about what makes sense for them," the governor said. "If it's something you are not comfortable doing, nobody will force you to do it. But I think people need to be free to choose."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 26, 2020, 08:58:12 AM
I wonder how many restaurants in FL need full capacity now.  Maybe on weekends?

I really worry that the "second phase" of unemployment is about to ravage the country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 26, 2020, 08:59:51 AM
I worry for that too. Much more so than I worry about the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 26, 2020, 09:21:06 AM
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/09/01/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/09/01/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s)

A lot of employers depend on foot traffic.  They tend to be employers of lower paid people, salespersons, wait staff, etc.  As retail and hospitality close, it's those folks most vulnerable, and they tend to have less of a cushion financially.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 26, 2020, 09:27:35 AM
Exactly right. That's the biggest problem here that I see, followed closely by the office and commercial rental industry. That bubble has yet to burst, and it will be ugly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 26, 2020, 09:36:12 AM
The Big Employers are doing OK, mostly, hospitality aside.  My problem is I can't "spend any money", which sounds absurd, but the things we used to enjoy are largely unavailable now, or very limited (travel, dining).

Any notion of going to Brazil is out, the wife's sister has told her most of her staff is infected.  Brazil has a bad outbreak.

France is obviously not on the table.  Any cruise is out.  These things are not even under slight consideration.  We do dine out a bit, but like many of youse, I don't mind cooking at home.  We have a three night driving trip planned for October, and I know I'm taking some additional risk there.  I think it is "OK".  

The symphony is out, football and soccer games are out, there are no conventions, downtown must be completely cracking.  The airport has to be struggling with all the vendors with places there.  Lots of folks must be behind on their rent or mortgage, the city has to be way under water, MARTA is way down, the state is losing big time.

When I think about it too much it's really depressing and I don't see a viable solution.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 26, 2020, 09:41:58 AM
We use Hilton products when we travel. Stayed at two Hampton Inns on the way down this week. You can smell the bleach in the rooms, and they also use UV robots. It's very comforting.

I would not feel safe in a Motel 6 or Super 8 or Red Roof, etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 26, 2020, 10:03:50 AM
I stayed at Motel 6 and Super8 type places back in college.  I definitely haven't done it since.

Most of my status is with Starwood, so Westins and W hotels and Aloft are the places I tend to stay.  Even in years when I don't travel enough, I have a friend that's placed highly in the Luxury Comps group, so he keeps my status at the Platinum Elite level.   There are some pretty great perks at that level, over the past two decades I've gotten all kinds of upgrades, and quite a few free rooms for family and friends in New Orleans, Vegas, NY, Boston, and elsewhere.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 26, 2020, 10:16:21 AM
Yeah, when my wife worked, Hilton was the brand of choice for her company (Baxter). That's why we stick with them. Before that, it was Marriott, which I would also feel comfortable with. We just don't have anymore status there, so we stick with Hilton now. We travel enough to keep our status with them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 26, 2020, 10:34:55 AM
I like Hiltons fine.  My favorite resort in Playa del Carmen was recently bought out by them, and the service got even better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 26, 2020, 11:21:31 AM
I wonder if the hotel chains/airlines are going to consider 2020 a mulligan for travelers with status? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 26, 2020, 12:12:27 PM
Most are, Delta and Hilton are already.  I think it worthwhile this year to pay a bit more for a nicer place.  We're staying at two Hiltons and one Holiday Inn property because I get one night at HI free each year.  I used points for the Hampton Inns in NC.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 26, 2020, 01:40:09 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 26, 2020, 08:16:41 AM
So, Fro, give me your prediction for Florida, rather than just being snarky.


We should be able to outscore the Rebs.  Kiffin will get them some scores, but I'm not worried.  The Gators don't have a good history in Oxford, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 26, 2020, 01:46:47 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 26, 2020, 01:40:09 PM
We should be able to outscore the Rebs.  Kiffin will get them some scores, but I'm not worried.  The Gators don't have a good history in Oxford, though.
either OAM is a complete idiot or he is still being snarky
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2020, 09:09:49 AM
I would simply appreciate an answer for what will happen in Florida, due to being deemed open.

We stopped for lunch yesterday and ate inside. The place was seating every-other-table and everyone was wearing masks. Everywhere we went (3 furniture stores, Home Depot, Publix, Best Buy), people were wearing masks.

This is commonplace here, at least where we live, and it will continue to be commonplace.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 27, 2020, 09:25:08 AM
My guess is there will be a smallish bump in cases over the next month with school being back and folks getting more relaxed and perhaps being indoors a bit more in public.  Folks will scream bloody murder, then tighten up a bit, and then the case rate will start to ebb again.

The newly reported case rate has fallen from around 10,000 per day mid-July to around 2,500-3,000 per day now, and fairly stable.  In July, it was looking bad, like it was about to really blow up, but it didn't happen.

I do not agree that governor's should shut the economy down under these circumstances.  Hopefully, people will continue to take precautions generally speaking.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2020, 11:26:01 AM
Florida is running an average of around 50K tests per day now, and sitting at a positivity rate of a little more than 4% positive. I consider this a good sign.

My zip code has less than 5 cases right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 27, 2020, 11:40:49 AM
NYC opening indoor dining with 25% capacity Wednesday. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 27, 2020, 12:40:38 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 27, 2020, 11:40:49 AM
NYC opening indoor dining with 25% capacity Wednesday.
Fingers crossed for them.  They might fare better than other places, since they had a much heavier first wave.  For their sakes I hope so!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 27, 2020, 02:06:08 PM
I see some models predicting an upsurge in October.  I am not sure on what that is based really.

France already is going up steadily, if that doesn't peak soon they will probably shut it down again.

Does anyone know how Sweden is doing?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 27, 2020, 03:38:29 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 27, 2020, 02:06:08 PM
I see some models predicting an upsurge in October.  I am not sure on what that is based really.
I've read the IHME model that was predicting 400K total deaths by the end of the year was based on the assumption that there is a seasonal element. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on September 27, 2020, 04:12:41 PM
My fellow Minnesotans are showing their true colors. 

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/09/25/covid19-factfinding-leads-to-threats-against-health-workers-in-minnesota

This crap has to stop right now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 27, 2020, 05:54:43 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 27, 2020, 03:38:29 PM
I've read the IHME model that was predicting 400K total deaths by the end of the year was based on the assumption that there is a seasonal element.
What is the evidence this has some seasonality to it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 27, 2020, 06:00:36 PM
NOW you're interested in evidence?   


I give up.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 27, 2020, 06:04:57 PM
I've been interested in evidence most of my life, including things like what is happening in Sweden.

I don't just form a conclusion based on my politics or what I WANT to be true and then seek evidence to support that, and ignore anything that doesn't fit.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 27, 2020, 06:07:03 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 27, 2020, 05:54:43 PM
What is the evidence this has some seasonality to it?

You'd have to ask IHME. I'm just the messenger. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 27, 2020, 06:09:35 PM
Obviously, it could be seasonal.  Some claimed way back that the summer would dampen it, which did not seem to happen (or if it did, we're in trouble).

Being indoors more often and with dried out sinuses can make us more susceptible obviously, so there is that.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 27, 2020, 07:59:59 PM
bars, restaurants pretty full in Lincoln this past weekend.  The young people certainly not worried and out.

most people sitting outside when available.  Actually closer together outside than inside

Hotel wasn't empty.  Folks were waiting for an empty elevator as apposed to all piling in together

Lincoln has a mask ordinance.  Masks used for a few minutes inside until folks sit down, seems rather silly  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2020, 08:33:34 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 27, 2020, 06:07:03 PM
You'd have to ask IHME. I'm just the messenger.




IHME? The site that forecast a quintillion deaths?

Go out to eat.

Support the locals.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2020, 08:39:47 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on September 27, 2020, 04:12:41 PM
My fellow Minnesotans are showing their true colors.

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/09/25/covid19-factfinding-leads-to-threats-against-health-workers-in-minnesota

This crap has to stop right now.
So, what would you suggest?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on September 28, 2020, 01:25:18 AM
I suggest citizens not intimidate citizens doing their job with firearms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2020, 06:01:46 AM
I would agree with that. One thing I wonder about is how the state informed people it was going to be doing these random visits. Was it advertised?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2020, 08:28:44 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 27, 2020, 02:06:08 PM
Does anyone know how Sweden is doing?
Interesting read here.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/some-countries-are-eying-sweden-s-light-touch-covid-response-it-s-a-gamble-that-could-backfire/ar-BB19us3x?ocid=msedgntp

B (https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/some-countries-are-eying-sweden-s-light-touch-covid-response-it-s-a-gamble-that-could-backfire/ar-BB19us3x?ocid=msedgntp)ig takeaway:


And as Swedes are generally trusting of authorities, people there largely followed government guidelines and social behavior has changed voluntarily.

According to Swedish government data (https://www.government.se/articles/2020/06/social-distancing-and-markedly-reduced-travel-in-sweden/), more than 80% of Swedes have been social distancing, are avoiding shaking hands and are washing their hands more often and thoroughly. Sixty percent of people have reduced their activities outside the home and are avoiding crowded places.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2020, 09:10:05 AM
Lots of positive here. I like good news.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2020/09/28/florida-schools-reopened-en-mass-feared-covid-surge-hasnt-followed/3557417001/ (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2020/09/28/florida-schools-reopened-en-mass-feared-covid-surge-hasnt-followed/3557417001/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 28, 2020, 09:22:28 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2020, 08:33:34 PM



IHME? The site that forecast a quintillion deaths?

Go out to eat.

Support the locals.
No, that forecast was by some Brit outfit that revised it soon after.

IHME is UDubb.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2020, 09:37:35 AM
Weren't their early numbers showing 2M deaths in the US?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 28, 2020, 09:44:04 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2020, 09:37:35 AM
Weren't their early numbers showing 2M deaths in the US?
No.  I think their early figure was 240,000.  That moved down, and then up, a lot.

IHME has been reasonably accurate considering.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2020, 10:04:16 AM
My apologies for the mix up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on September 28, 2020, 10:39:35 AM
the early projection numbers were for huge numbers of fatalities, far greater than what we've experienced, and were still being cited early this summer.    Minn Gov kept touting the projection of 59,000 expected deaths in Minnesota if they did nothing, and 29,000 under current distancing conditions.    
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on September 28, 2020, 11:06:47 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2020, 08:39:47 PM
So, what would you suggest?
For openers, remind residents not to respond to government workers doing their jobs with guns and racial slurs.

But this is only the symptom of a much bigger problem. Badge, I wish I knew the answer. There are large swatches of this state that are asking the same question, and are trying to come up with the same answer. Unfortunately, this beast has been 40+ years in the making. It can't be unwound overnight. My little role in the solution is to ensure that everyone actually gets to the table so that they their voices are heard. 

Apparently prior to the Eitzen incident, the Houston County Sherriff's Office (local law enforcement) had been trying to get the word out that canvassers were working in the area. Unfortunately, having worked in that part of the world quite a bit, what gets out in press releases and radio interviews frequently doesn't mesh with what's in resident's minds. 

Threatening government employees doing their work with guns is bad judgement at best and aggravated assault at worst. Fortunately I have never been drawn on while working, but some of my co-workers have. The State Patrol really doesn't like it when the general public threatens MnDOT employees in their line of work. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 28, 2020, 11:27:55 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2020, 08:39:47 PM
So, what would you suggest?
I think it's interesting because we're living in an era where maybe we are less trusting of strangers or maybe not, but we're certianly given reasons to feel less trusting (probably overstated reasons). And when someone gets chased off at gunpoint,we know about it as compared to not knowing historically.

I mean, we used to have traveling salesmen. They drove around and sold vacuums at your door. Maybe they were often treated this poorly and it just wasn't talked about. I dunno. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2020, 11:35:39 AM
Something has to give here, obviously. Nobody should be subjected to violence or threats while working. My field survey employees get it from time to time too.

We used to hide when the Jehovah's came to the door. I don't think they do that anymore??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 28, 2020, 12:31:45 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2020, 11:35:39 AM
Something has to give here, obviously. Nobody should be subjected to violence or threats while working. My field survey employees get it from time to time too.

We used to hide when the Jehovah's came to the door. I don't think they do that anymore??
We don't hide or they don't go door to door as much?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2020, 12:45:03 PM
They don't go around like that, I don't think.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 28, 2020, 12:49:08 PM
might get shot
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 28, 2020, 01:32:20 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2020, 12:45:03 PM
They don't go around like that, I don't think.
Up until the coronas, they still cased my neighborhood regularly, on their bikes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2020, 02:00:57 PM
I can't remember the last time one came knocking. Maybe 15-20 years ago or so??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 28, 2020, 02:04:44 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 28, 2020, 01:32:20 PM
Up until the coronas, they still cased my neighborhood regularly, on their bikes.
more proof that EVERYONE likes your neighborhood and would like to live next door
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 28, 2020, 02:10:23 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2020, 09:37:35 AM
Weren't their early numbers showing 2M deaths in the US?
Imperial College of London was the one showing 2M. 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Bear in mind that was their "do nothing" worst-case scenario. And by "do nothing", I mean literally NOTHING:

Quote
In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour

They even claim it is unlikely, largely because we know that as the cases and deaths mounted people absolutely would change their behavior. As you even point out with the link to the article about of Sweden, where even despite official lockdowns the Swedes were voluntarily complying with the request to change their behavior. 

While everyone was crowing about how wrong they were, their best-case scenario was much lower (the PDF suggests a factor of 8) if I remember correctly. That best-case was based on 5 mitigation strategies:



Hmm, seems like we've actually done a pretty good job of implementing ALL of the strategies that they identify. And we started wearing masks too. And they didn't even assume 100% compliance, because that would of course be unrealistic. 

So I don't know why everyone points out how "wrong" they were. If you look at their model for the Great Britain, their model claims that if you use all 4 mitigation strategies (PC+CI+HQ+SD), and an R0 of 2.4, their total deaths over two years would finish around 39,000*. Their deaths as of today? 42,000. 

So the UK model's best case is better than they've done so far. Yet this model is still held up as evidence of fear-mongering because we did the things they told us would keep the number of deaths from reaching the levels they prophesied as "do nothing". 

 * Note: that's based on certain trigger policies of when you do/don't implement the strategies and when you come off them. I chose worst-case.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 28, 2020, 02:12:44 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 28, 2020, 01:32:20 PM
Up until the coronas, they still cased my neighborhood regularly, on their bikes.
Those are the Mormons. On the bikes in their nice white shirts. 

I recall most Jehovah's Witnesses I've ever encountered as on foot. 

BTW, if you've never seen The Book of Mormon, I highly recommend it. Freakin' hilarious!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on September 28, 2020, 03:24:43 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 26, 2020, 08:55:46 AM
The Florida Governor is allowing the people of his state to choose.

Imagine that. A public official keeping his nose out of private business. Who'd have thunk it?



"We never closed down over the summer," he said, later adding: "We have been open. The final piece to the puzzle was this capacity limitation on the restaurants at 50%. So that was the announcement today that brought that in for a landing. A lot of those folks in that industry have had a really, really rough time."


"We have to have a situation where individuals can make decisions about what makes sense for them," the governor said. "If it's something you are not comfortable doing, nobody will force you to do it. But I think people need to be free to choose."
How dare he allow people to think, decide and do for himself, doesn't he know that getting covid is almost instant death and if you don't die, you will be seriously maimed for the rest of your life.

I guess, I am finally totally fed up that we can't look at the statistic and see that while it is serious, it shouldn't be treated any different than any other pandemic and/or epidemic that we have had in the past.

Feel free to roast me, call me ignorant, uncaring about those who might die, etc. I am so over this. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on September 28, 2020, 03:28:01 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 28, 2020, 09:44:04 AM
No.  I think their early figure was 240,000.  That moved down, and then up, a lot.

IHME has been reasonably accurate considering.

I will try to find it, but the early models coming out of I believe some Washington University said 2 Million and they were using it early in all of this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 28, 2020, 03:38:24 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on September 28, 2020, 03:28:01 PM
I will try to find it, but the early models coming out of I believe some Washington University said 2 Million and they were using it early in all of this.
3 posts above you. Imperial College London. I linked to their paper. 

2M was assuming the null hypothesis, i.e. gov't takes no action, and people go around their day behaving like they'd never heard of COVID as the death tolls around them mount. 

Their paper suggested MUCH lower numbers if the mitigation was put into effect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2020, 03:52:06 PM
Wisconsin.

Look at the spike here, and then the age groups. Kids are stupid.

https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/cases.htm (https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/cases.htm)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 28, 2020, 04:09:36 PM
If we, here, as a group, and behave sensibly, and I suspect we do, it's a help.  I'm actually used to wearing a mask now any time I'm around someone else or entering a store.  My Marine FB friends call me a sheep because a virus particle is smaller than any mask weave (including N95s).

I recall back in the day being fitted for a full respirator.  We didn't do the gas chamber thing though.  We had over 2,000 chemicals in our lab, one manager thought we should have to memorize the MSDS for each of them.  Um, no.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 28, 2020, 05:16:29 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2020, 03:52:06 PM
Wisconsin.

Look at the spike here, and then the age groups. Kids are stupid.

https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/cases.htm (https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/cases.htm)

how's the football team and support staff doing?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2020, 06:23:54 PM
No cases that I've heard about, but that staff is so tight I would not expect to hear anything. They almost never talk to the media. That's Paul Chryst for ya. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 28, 2020, 10:22:42 PM
I guess we'll find out when the season starts.  Do you know if the team is practicing?  Because they're not allowed to practice if there are too many cases
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 29, 2020, 06:47:28 AM
I imagine the coaches and staff are reading the riot act daily to players about their proclivities in socializing, and the damage and personal injury that could ensue.

I wonder how many viral diseases have such a high rate of having no or light symptoms.  That is an evolutionary advantage for a virus I think, versus say ebola that is horrible indeed but tends to be self limiting.

Georgia reported a very low figure Monday, but Monday's tend to be low.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 29, 2020, 06:49:56 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 28, 2020, 10:22:42 PM
I guess we'll find out when the season starts.  Do you know if the team is practicing?  Because they're not allowed to practice if there are too many cases
They are practicing. ND has 39 players in quarantine. Seems to me there was a party or something.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 29, 2020, 07:00:38 AM
I'd guess many of those 39 were contract traced and now isolated pending testing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 29, 2020, 07:09:36 AM
https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/college/ct-notre-dame-football-covid-19-testing-20200928-r7k2uz3ue5cbnph3xoeyr2in2m-story.html (https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/college/ct-notre-dame-football-covid-19-testing-20200928-r7k2uz3ue5cbnph3xoeyr2in2m-story.html)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 29, 2020, 07:42:15 AM
 25 players are in isolation as a result of 18 positive tests last week. Another 14 players are in quarantine due to contact tracing.

Of the 18, some might be false positives.  Even so, 14 positives is not good obviously, and multiplies out.  (This is if the lab didn't screw things up royally.)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on September 29, 2020, 12:17:50 PM
So as I posted way earlier in the thread last week my dad came down with COVID.  He was taken to the hospital last Friday night, treated and then released on Saturday.  I have no idea why they released him so early but apparently he was doing well all things considered.  Sunday he started feeling poor again and Monday he was taken back to the hospital.  Right now he's in stable condition but he's on a ventilator. They're going to give him REMDESIVIR (excuse me if I misspelled that!).  They're hoping to take him off the ventilator this week.  My mom, who also contracted COVID is still home and doing OK.  She has days where she feels better and days where she feels worse but all in all OK.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 29, 2020, 12:20:02 PM
Quote from: Gigem on September 29, 2020, 12:17:50 PM
So as I posted way earlier in the thread last week my dad came down with COVID.  He was taken to the hospital last Friday night, treated and then released on Saturday.  I have no idea why they released him so early but apparently he was doing well all things considered.  Sunday he started feeling poor again and Monday he was taken back to the hospital.  Right now he's in stable condition but he's on a ventilator. They're going to give him REMDESIVIR (excuse me if I misspelled that!).  They're hoping to take him off the ventilator this week.  My mom, who also contracted COVID is still home and doing OK.  She has days where she feels better and days where she feels worse but all in all OK. 
Oh man I'm sorry to hear that Gigem.  Your family has my prayers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 29, 2020, 12:22:55 PM
It seems to last about 4-5 days with bad symptoms.  We all hope he does well obviously.  He may be nearing the hump, we hope.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 29, 2020, 12:29:59 PM
Quote from: Gigem on September 29, 2020, 12:17:50 PM
So as I posted way earlier in the thread last week my dad came down with COVID.  He was taken to the hospital last Friday night, treated and then released on Saturday.  I have no idea why they released him so early but apparently he was doing well all things considered.  Sunday he started feeling poor again and Monday he was taken back to the hospital.  Right now he's in stable condition but he's on a ventilator. They're going to give him REMDESIVIR (excuse me if I misspelled that!).  They're hoping to take him off the ventilator this week.  My mom, who also contracted COVID is still home and doing OK.  She has days where she feels better and days where she feels worse but all in all OK. 
Sorry to hear, and best of luck to both of them. That sucks. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 29, 2020, 12:35:18 PM
Good Luck, Gig'em
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 29, 2020, 12:41:33 PM
Hang in there, and best wishes. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on September 29, 2020, 12:43:45 PM
Good luck, gigem
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on October 01, 2020, 01:25:46 AM
Gig em, I am sorry for your parents' struggles.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on October 01, 2020, 01:37:17 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 28, 2020, 06:01:46 AM
I would agree with that. One thing I wonder about is how the state informed people it was going to be doing these random visits. Was it advertised?
We had someone in our neighborhood the other day knocking on a door of a house that is not occupied. I didn't see him knock, but my across the street neighbor saw him and I saw my neighbor confront the man. This is small town Iowa. No weapons displayed or visible. We have to get off this track, of we need to be armed. Just neighbors looking out for a neighbor, (who did not exist). It was a U.S. census worker doing his job.
The U.S.A. didn't say our census worker will be on Sherman Ave. on Sept. ___, 2020.
If you have something to say to an Amishman, they expect you to go to their house.
I don't call first. I knock. I do not expect the neighborhood to come out with armaments, although they have arms. I knock, greet, explain my purpose, extend kindness with hope of reciprocation. These are social norms.
I have no doubt you follow them. But, we have too many examples of people who don't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 01, 2020, 07:22:40 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/01/coronavirus-vaccine-trial-participants-exhaustion-fever-headaches.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/01/coronavirus-vaccine-trial-participants-exhaustion-fever-headaches.html)

Some side effects from the trial vaccines, not a shock.

I had a similar reaction to my second Shingles shot.  Just as I went to bed, I had uncontrollable shivering and teeth chattering.  The wife got me blankets, I put a pen between my teeth they were going to hard.  She got me a Tylenol and it stopped soon after.

Shingles looks like something to avoid.  My flu and pneumonia vaccines had no impact on me, as usual.

I think it worthwhile to get a flu shot this year, they are out now, Publix gives you a $10 gift card to get one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 01, 2020, 07:46:13 AM
Quote from: Gigem on September 29, 2020, 12:17:50 PM
my dad came down with COVID.  He was taken to the hospital last Friday night, Right now he's in stable condition but he's on a ventilator. They're going to give him REMDESIVIR (excuse me if I misspelled that!).  They're hoping to take him off the ventilator this week.  My mom, who also contracted COVID is still home and doing OK.  She has days where she feels better and days where she feels worse but all in all OK. 
Good Luck/Best Wishes Gig'em,do you have family in the area?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 01, 2020, 01:13:13 PM
My doctor's office gives free flu shots.  I don't usually get it, maybe I will this year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 01, 2020, 01:16:06 PM
I got one, and also the TB.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 01, 2020, 01:22:43 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 01, 2020, 01:13:13 PM
My doctor's office gives free flu shots.  I don't usually get it, maybe I will this year.

I got mine along with my tetanus booster last week, and got the kids handled as well over the weekend. 

But as I said, i actually expect this flu season to be basically nonexistent, like it was in the southern hemisphere. 

That said I have no reason to avoid the flu shot, so I got it anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 01, 2020, 02:00:36 PM
Ive never had the flu and never had a flu shot

I see no reason to change

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 01, 2020, 02:08:51 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 01, 2020, 01:13:13 PM
My doctor's office gives free flu shots.  I don't usually get it, maybe I will this year.

regional grocer gives em free (with insurance) and gives you $10 for the trouble. It’s genius.

Edit: Dangit, Cincy already mentioned that. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 01, 2020, 02:15:24 PM
yup, my grocer's pharmacy gives them free with a 50 cents per gallon discount on gasoline

that's $10 off 

my doc's office doesn't hand out $10
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 01, 2020, 02:16:44 PM
Rather get a shot from a doctor than at a grocery store. Much more controlled environment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 01, 2020, 02:19:23 PM
I'm not scared of Pharmacists with needles

and I'm a sucker for $10 off my gasoline

been doin it for the past 5 or 6 years
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 01, 2020, 02:22:01 PM
I don't go to grocery stores with the dirty unwashed huddled masses.

Dr. office is fine with me, if I were to get one.  I've gotten it maybe twice in my life, and never had the flu, so there you have it.

I do typically get the kids a flu shot though.  Their annual checkups are in October every year, so we just do it all at the same time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 01, 2020, 02:23:23 PM
apparently, the flu doesn't bother folks in Texas

just one more outstanding reason to move there
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 01, 2020, 02:30:50 PM
No flu, but there's the inside-out mist, so, good luck.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 01, 2020, 02:40:16 PM
and with that HUGE bat colony........ probably plenty of COVID
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 01, 2020, 03:19:40 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 01, 2020, 02:16:44 PM
Rather get a shot from a doctor than at a grocery store. Much more controlled environment.
They sell Liquor in the Ohio Markets so speak for yourself
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 01, 2020, 03:21:06 PM
Ed Zachery!

and toilet paper
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 01, 2020, 03:22:10 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 01, 2020, 02:19:23 PM
I'm not scared of Pharmacists with needles

and I'm a sucker for $10 off my gasoline

been doin it for the past 5 or 6 years
Are you saying needles for gasoline? :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 01, 2020, 04:27:40 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 01, 2020, 02:30:50 PM
No flu, but there's the inside-out mist, so, good luck.
dont forget about our brain eating amoebas 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 01, 2020, 04:43:56 PM
Getting a shot is a pretty simple thing.  They let E4 Navy Corpsmen do them.

I'm pretty sure the pharmacist is as qualified as a nurse to do it.  Oddly enough, the shingles shot here is ONLY available at a pharmacy, you can't get one at the doctor's office, or so I was informed.  I got mine at CVS, no big deal except the reaction to it.

I got my pneumonia shot at the doctor's office during my presurgical physical, which was kind of a joke.

They wanted an ECG which the doc said was useless.

I was given a new Apple watch for my D-day, it has too much stuff on it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on October 01, 2020, 04:50:58 PM
Detailed article from the Atlantic about the reopening at the U of Arizona.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/10/16-weeks-and-5-days-university-arizona/616557/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 01, 2020, 05:14:11 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on October 01, 2020, 03:19:40 PM
They sell Liquor in the Ohio Markets so speak for yourself
We've got liquor delivery to your door now, as a regular thing, thanks to the 'rona.  I can also get margaritas to go from almost any Tex-Mex place.  

Thanks, COVID!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 01, 2020, 05:15:13 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 01, 2020, 02:40:16 PM
and with that HUGE bat colony........ probably plenty of COVID
ed zachary
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 01, 2020, 05:42:35 PM
My word for the year:

zoonose.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 01, 2020, 06:50:08 PM
Zoonotic

Zoonosis
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 01, 2020, 06:52:56 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 01, 2020, 05:42:35 PM
My word for the year:

zoonose.
Mine:

Misanthrope
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on October 02, 2020, 01:30:11 AM
I don't know what to say. "Karma?" or "Barmaid, a double shot of hydroxychloriquine, please." or "Uncle Sam, when will this nightmare (pandemic) end?"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2020, 07:16:35 AM
Wow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 02, 2020, 07:29:30 AM
Every so often, I wonder if the writers room for the year 2020 has gone too far.

Hoping for speedy recoveries by all. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2020, 08:06:25 AM
Yep. Very nicely put.

The President doesn't drink or smoke, but he's 74. That's the big concern, with the other being that he is overweight by a bit. I am not aware of anything else underlying. 

Anyone here know if there are other issues?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on October 02, 2020, 08:28:36 AM
The 2020 political bingo card was already filled out by Labor Day.  This is just emptying the drum.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 02, 2020, 08:56:57 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2020, 08:06:25 AM
Yep. Very nicely put.

The President doesn't drink or smoke, but he's 74. That's the big concern, with the other being that he is overweight by a bit. I am not aware of anything else underlying.

Anyone here know if there are other issues?
Well he's nuts but after listening to the carnival barkers on the other side of the fence evidently it's a perrequisite
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on October 02, 2020, 11:00:57 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 02, 2020, 07:29:30 AM
Every so often, I wonder if the writers room for the year 2020 has gone too far.

Hoping for speedy recoveries by all.
Literally can't make this ish up. I'm convinced we are in the end times and Jesus is coming back next year. I'm going to be a giant slut and try to nail everything that walks and do all the drugs I can for the next 2 months and then get baptised and convert to christianity. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 02, 2020, 11:41:10 AM
Act like that and you might get elected in your district.Well if Michigan wins the BIG,that might tip you off.But the Indians have exited the playoffs so I think we're safe for another year
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 02, 2020, 12:16:03 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2020, 08:06:25 AM
Yep. Very nicely put.

The President doesn't drink or smoke, but he's 74. That's the big concern, with the other being that he is overweight by a bit. I am not aware of anything else underlying.

Anyone here know if there are other issues?
Hypocrisy
Denial
Selfishness
Stupidity
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 02, 2020, 12:21:39 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 01, 2020, 02:00:36 PM
Ive never had the flu and never had a flu shot

I see no reason to change


I was like this, but then I remembered other people exist in the world. So the flu virus I may possess and is not bothering me may make life hell for the person I may spread it to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 02, 2020, 12:40:35 PM
Years ago, I listened to an NPR interview with the lady at the CDC in charge of figuring out the flu shot each year.  She inadvertently convinced me to stop getting shots.  The interviewer asked her if she had gotten hers yet and she said "No, I don't get them, I'm healthy and young and they really are not that effective."

I was astonished, but she ran through the numbers, which were like "You only get exposed to flu about once a decade, the flu shot is only effective against about 2/3rds of the flu types that will be extant that year, and it's only about 80% effective against those.)

She then explained how it was a public health issue, not an individual issue, which I selfishly misunderstood.

I get them now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2020, 12:50:38 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 02, 2020, 12:16:03 PM
Hypocrisy
Denial
Selfishness
Stupidity

STOP!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 02, 2020, 12:56:57 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2020, 12:50:38 PM
STOP!
stop the Hypocrisy
Denial
Selfishness
Stupidity????
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2020, 12:58:58 PM
The political commentary on this thread STOPS. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 02, 2020, 12:59:36 PM
Hey, you asked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 02, 2020, 01:14:59 PM
I vote we stop the stupidity anyway.

Georgia had started what might have been an upsurge last week but it appears to have abated and trended lower (newly reported cases around 1200 per day, a third of the June figure).

School started over a month ago, most places are doing in classroom teaching.  It will be interesting to see if being indoors more triggers an upsurge.

I should check on Sweden again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2020, 01:20:38 PM
Florida also continues to trend down. Lowest case count per day (7 day average) since mid-June, with double the testing. Cases in my area are almost non-existent. 

People are doing the right things from what I see. I'm encouraged.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on October 02, 2020, 01:22:40 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 01, 2020, 02:00:36 PM
Ive never had the flu and never had a flu shot

I see no reason to change


Yep
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 02, 2020, 01:27:26 PM
You guys realize that 30-50,000 people die each year from the flu.  So your saying you're not getting a flu shot is akin to saying you're not getting a covid vaccine when there is one, and you're only being around 1/6 the asshole.  You get that, right?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 02, 2020, 01:43:37 PM
The reason to get a flu shot really is not to avoid getting the flu (unless you are vulnerable), which perhaps makes sense, or not.

R naught. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 02, 2020, 01:45:46 PM
What are the typical precautions that people are seeing where students are actually going back to school across the country? 

Here, both schools my kids attend mandate 100% mask usage for students. The public district is doing hybrid 1/2 in person and 1/2 distance learning for the people that chose to send their kids back (100% distance learning is also an option) so that they can stagger a morning and an afternoon class to keep classes smaller and limit interaction. Luckily for the special ed they are full day instruction, though, because my son needs that. The charter school the other two go to is full day instruction (but 100% distance learning is also an option) and they're requiring the bluetooth thermometer and a morning temp check that you have to verify on an app at drop-off. They're also staggering drop-off and pickup times to limit interaction. 

However, I don't know if California's precautions are more stringent than what you might see in some of the more aggressive reopening states...

Thoughts from fellow parents or people who just have paid attention to what the schools are doing?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 02, 2020, 01:51:45 PM
I just checked and most counties around me are not yet back to school, but are starting now, with masks required.

https://www.fultonschools.org/Page/21403 (https://www.fultonschools.org/Page/21403)

I thought they had gone back earlier.  The details vary by county, and the metro area is 15 counties or so depending.

https://coronavirus.uga.edu/ (https://coronavirus.uga.edu/)

UGA has been back in class and so far doing pretty well apparently.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 02, 2020, 02:50:30 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 02, 2020, 01:27:26 PM
You guys realize that 30-50,000 people die each year from the flu.  So your saying you're not getting a flu shot is akin to saying you're not getting a covid vaccine when there is one, and you're only being around 1/6 the asshole.  You get that, right?
youre the only asshole around here 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 02, 2020, 02:57:09 PM
I've never had the flu, so I'm not spreading it, regardless of whether or not I get the flu shot.

If I feel sick, I stay home.  Everybody should.

If we're going to extend the line even further to "asymptomatic spread of flu is a serious health concern" then we're chasing the rabbit so far down the hole we may never get back out.

Perhaps all of the current problems with coronavirus will help employers better understand they shouldn't be pressuring employees to come into work if they're sick, which has been an issue in this country, to date.

Sick people stay home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 02, 2020, 02:57:48 PM
Not only have I never had the flu my mother, father, two brothers and sister never have had it either and no one ever got a flu shot

in fact thinking back very few of any of my friends ever had the flu

I dont have any problem with getting a flu shot but never saw a need

some folks get the flu much easier then others Im one of the ones who just doesnt get the flu

dont know why but its just the facts
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 02, 2020, 03:01:56 PM
Dr. Mike Yeadon, a former Vice President and Chief Science Officer for Pfizer for 16 years, says that half or even "almost all" of tests for COVID are false positives. Dr. Yeadon also argues that the threshold for herd immunity may be much lower than previously thought, and may have been reached in many countries already.

In an interview last week Dr. Yeadon was asked:

"we are basing a government policy, an economic policy, a civil liberties policy, in terms of limiting people to six people in a meeting...all based on, what may well be, completely fake data on this coronavirus?"

Dr. Yeadon answered with a simple "yes."

Even more significantly, even if all positives were to be correct, Dr. Yeadon said that given the "shape" of all important indicators in a worldwide pandemic, such as hospitalizations, ICU utilization, and deaths, "the pandemic is fundamentally over."

Yeadon said in the interview:

"Were it not for the test data that you get from the TV all the time, you would rightly conclude that the pandemic was over, as nothing much has happened. Of course people go to the hospital, moving into the autumn flu season...but there is no science to suggest a second wave should happen."


https://hubpages.com/politics/Pfizer-Chief-Science-Officer-Second-Wave-Based-on-Fake-Data-of-False-Positives-for-New-Cases-Pandemic-is-Over (https://hubpages.com/politics/Pfizer-Chief-Science-Officer-Second-Wave-Based-on-Fake-Data-of-False-Positives-for-New-Cases-Pandemic-is-Over)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 02, 2020, 03:02:33 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 02, 2020, 02:50:30 PM
youre the only asshole around here
Badge said, no more political crap here!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 02, 2020, 03:13:18 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 02, 2020, 03:02:33 PM
Badge said, no more political crap here!
Even if its true?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 02, 2020, 05:06:01 PM
My feelings are all hurt.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on October 02, 2020, 05:29:51 PM
My 3rd graders has been on the bus and in school since Aug 11.  So far so good.  6th grader is in school half the time, e learning other half.  1 positive case reported across the k-8 in that time.  A couple dozen cases at the 4,500 student high school, which is a total hybrid model.   Pretty tight pods and lunches.  My 3rd grader only comes into 'close' contact with 24 other kids.   She's also been tested.   Negative. 

Meanwhile volleyball goes on, I wear mask 100% of time, kids can remove during play, many still wear them.  We had kids stay home on precautionary measures, but no big issues. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 02, 2020, 06:17:05 PM




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IU_y9FB0QKk&list=PLl9n11EP2Q2Cr_2qZmYnkUeFepD9HSXaq
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on October 03, 2020, 12:00:59 AM
Thanks for all the well wishes. All my family lives here in the same small town.  Tons and tons of cousins, aunts, uncles, the whole family. We’ve been here since at least the 1850’s which is when they came over in the boat from England and landed at Galveston. Somebody mentioned the brain eating amoeba, we’re in the next town over. 

My mom is doing much better, but my dad is still in the hospital on a ventilator. He had some fairly serious health issues before all this started, so it’s really not surprising that he has not fared well. And of course he took almost no precautions to protect himself. 

We’re hoping for the best.  I will keep you updated. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 03, 2020, 12:02:35 AM
hoping with you!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 04, 2020, 03:38:55 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 01, 2020, 05:42:35 PM
My word for the year:

zoonose.
Been thinking about this.

My word is zirconia.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 04, 2020, 03:39:27 PM
Also been thinking that 2020 is the new cuss number.



As in, go 2020 yourself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 05, 2020, 05:23:56 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/05/paris-to-be-put-on-maximum-alert-with-more-covid-19-restrictions-.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/05/paris-to-be-put-on-maximum-alert-with-more-covid-19-restrictions-.html)

I don't really understand why this is happening now in Europe suddenly.  The climate is not really a factor as yet.

Italy is up modestly, but France, Spain, and the UK are all up sharply to very high levels.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 05, 2020, 05:51:11 AM
The wife thinks the French are "ungovernable" and will do whatever they feel like and that contributes to this latest outbreak.  She was commenting back in August about how they all went on vacation as usual and partied hard.  There could be something to that, but now they are approaching a true crisis phase.  

Spain and the UK are in similar dire straits.  Italy not quite yet.  The "area under the curve" model is incorrect as there are significant differences by country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2020, 07:12:14 AM
Germany is amazing in this thing.

I guess I left Wisconsin at the right time.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/wisconsin (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/wisconsin)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 05, 2020, 09:19:24 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 05, 2020, 05:23:56 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/05/paris-to-be-put-on-maximum-alert-with-more-covid-19-restrictions-.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/05/paris-to-be-put-on-maximum-alert-with-more-covid-19-restrictions-.html)

I don't really understand why this is happening now in Europe suddenly.  The climate is not really a factor as yet.

Italy is up modestly, but France, Spain, and the UK are all up sharply to very high levels.


Quote from: Cincydawg on October 05, 2020, 05:51:11 AM
The wife thinks the French are "ungovernable" and will do whatever they feel like and that contributes to this latest outbreak.  She was commenting back in August about how they all went on vacation as usual and partied hard.  There could be something to that, but now they are approaching a true crisis phase. 

Spain and the UK are in similar dire straits.  Italy not quite yet.  The "area under the curve" model is incorrect as there are significant differences by country.

It's happening in Europe because those countries stopped adhering to the super-strict restrictions and guidelines.  People accustomed to living in free countries can only be suppressed for so long, and then behavior returns to the norm.  The Germans have always been great rule followers, but it can't last forever even there.  Eventually they'll see a second wave, unless the government imposes martial law, permanently.

And I disagree that the "area under the curve" model is incorrect.  This second wave is actually more proof that it IS correct, but that those countries locked down too hard and too fast, and not enough of their population was infected early, so they had not yet exhausted their area under the curve.  Eventually they will.  Eventually we all will, and then this novel coronavirus retreats to just one more in a group of viruses that affect humans annually.  It won't be as severe, because it will have already affected the most vulnerable in the population.

This virus isn't going away.  Ever.  We will have no choice but to learn to live with it among us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2020, 09:46:04 AM
I'm more optimistic than you are.

Anyway, my son is in town but he can't come over. He has been exposed to the virus and is holed up in a hotel for now. Getting test this morning, so we'll see. He drove our other car down for us. It would suck to not see him.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 05, 2020, 12:35:47 PM
I'm not pessimistic, just realistic, based on all of our previous encounters with coronaviruses.

And it's not really doom and gloom-- once the novelty wears off, it won't do anywhere near as much damage.  Based on hospitalization and death rates in Europe now during their second wave, compared to the devastation it caused in the first wave, there's evidence suggesting we're already on our way to that outcome, globally.

I hope you get to see your son!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 06, 2020, 06:33:44 AM
No test results yet, and he's leaving today. No symptoms. 

Not going to get to see him, other than for him to drop off the wife's car later. 

He is supposed to fly back to WI. I don't know how that works, assuming he actually has the virus??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 06, 2020, 08:53:49 AM
I'm assuming he'll need to lie to get on the plane.

I haven't tried to fly since the pandemic hit, but I'd guess you should be asked a direct question or two about your health
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 06, 2020, 09:17:16 AM
I'd rather he not lie about that, obviously. Hoping for test results sooner than later.

There are no change fees right now, but I do know he needs to get back to work. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 06, 2020, 09:21:42 AM
Georgia is reported fewer newly infecteds again, the trend is sliding, which is good.  It had started back up a bit and made me a bit nervous.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 06, 2020, 11:32:55 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2020, 09:46:04 AM
I'm more optimistic than you are.

Anyway, my son is in town but he can't come over. He has been exposed to the virus and is holed up in a hotel for now. Getting test this morning, so we'll see. He drove our other car down for us. It would suck to not see him.
Err,umm - does the hotel know?Asking for a friend
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 06, 2020, 12:21:50 PM
Honestly I don't know. I'm not sure what his approach is, but I feel like if you have reason to believe you've been exposed, you need to share that. I did tell him that. I do know they are quarantined in their rooms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 08, 2020, 11:12:41 AM
Hy-Vee is expanding its COVID-19 testing program to more stores across the Midwest.

The grocery chain has expanded COVID-19 testing to more than 150 Hy-Vee pharmacy locations throughout its eight-state region. The testing was first rolled out in August to 11 Hy-Vee pharmacy locations. Each pharmacy location can accommodate up to 12 patients per hour.

The tests are free and are administered via a Hy-Vee pharmacy drive-thru testing process. Individuals do not have to have COVID-19 symptoms to be tested, but they must register online to receive a test voucher number, testing site and appointment time. The COVID-19 tests are being coordinated by eTrueNorth. The full list of participating Hy-Vee Pharmacy locations can be found below.

Children ages three and up can now also get tested at the Hy-Vee pharmacy testing sites when registered and accompanied by a parent or guardian.


Each location is offering testing windows on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday mornings. Testing hours vary by location, so patients should visit www.doineedacovid19test.com to find available testing hours for their location.

Each patient will need to answer the questions and provide requested information in order to receive a test voucher number, testing site location and appointment time. The patient will then arrive at the specified test site pharmacy drive-thru with either a printed voucher number or show the voucher number on their phone before given a test kit. The Hy-Vee pharmacy employee will provide the test kit, provide instructions on how to self-administer the test and supervise the administration of the test. The patient will then drop off their completed kit in a collection bin.

The entire test process takes about five minutes. From there, the Hy-Vee pharmacy collects all tests, which are shipped to a lab via the United Parcel Service (UPS). Results will then be sent to the patient by email in three to five business days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 08, 2020, 11:13:17 AM
this is where I get my flu shot
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 08, 2020, 11:25:02 AM
My son's test was negative. To be sure, he's being tested again in Wisconsin.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 08, 2020, 11:54:51 AM
seems to me that many thought if we just had enough tests we could defeat the virus

then many thought that if enough masks were used we could defeat the virus

yesterday was an all-time high for number of covid hospitalizations in the state of Iowa
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 08, 2020, 12:36:26 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 08, 2020, 11:54:51 AM
seems to me that many thought if we just had enough tests we could defeat the virus

then many thought that if enough masks were used we could defeat the virus

yesterday was an all-time high for number of covid hospitalizations in the state of Iowa
the death rate is low and if it remains there the hospitals can handle it

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 08, 2020, 12:50:53 PM
I'm going to do an "I told you so" on the spread of the disease - hitting our big cities early, spreading to the next-populous states next, and now all the states with high rates are the rural ones in the north-central-Rockies region of the country.


It's always been math.  It's always been a population-based spread.  This isn't hard to predict, just hard to get the stupid and/or selfish to play along.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 08, 2020, 01:42:15 PM
So, where do we go from here?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 08, 2020, 01:52:04 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 08, 2020, 12:50:53 PM
I'm going to do an "I told you so" on the spread of the disease - hitting our big cities early, spreading to the next-populous states next, and now all the states with high rates are the rural ones in the north-central-Rockies region of the country.


It's always been math.  It's always been a population-based spread.  This isn't hard to predict, just hard to get the stupid and/or selfish to play along.
Do you think you have a scoop here? If you do, I have news for you. You don't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 08, 2020, 01:52:18 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 08, 2020, 01:42:15 PM
So, where do we go from here?


To the basement, forever.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 08, 2020, 02:09:38 PM
I don't think this country is going to lock down again no matter what.  Some areas may tighten up restrictions again.

The rate in Georgia continues to drop rather markedly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 08, 2020, 02:19:37 PM
Here too.

This house doesn't have a basement. I don't think there are many houses in Florida with basements. No need for them, and the water table is high in most places.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 08, 2020, 03:31:34 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 08, 2020, 11:54:51 AM
seems to me that many thought if we just had enough tests we could defeat the virus

then many thought that if enough masks were used we could defeat the virus

yesterday was an all-time high for number of covid hospitalizations in the state of Iowa
Tests paired with robust contact tracing would have worked, with phased reopening, but you need to keep the numbers of cases low or else the contact tracing doesn't work particularly well. We never kept cases low. 

Masks appear to help quite a bit. If people wear them, including covering their nose, and don't go spend a bunch of time with unmasked people outside their household because "they're friends/family; I'm sure it's safe!"

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 08, 2020, 04:04:11 PM
I think most are doing this now, with the exception of the anti-mask contingent. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 08, 2020, 04:09:28 PM
Houses in Texas don't have basements, aside from some up in the areas north of Dallas, aka Baja Oklahoma.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 08, 2020, 05:05:42 PM
A lot of houses in Madison did. Needed somewhere for grimy keggers. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 08, 2020, 05:24:42 PM
That and a place for the kids to play in the winter.

True this: 

Basements in Chicago were originally designed to hold storm water from runoff. Then people started putting stand pipes in so as to use the space. Then you get excess runoff and mass flooding. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 08, 2020, 05:29:55 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 08, 2020, 05:05:42 PM
A lot of houses in Madison did. Needed somewhere for grimy keggers.
Grimy keggers are out in the yard in these here parts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 08, 2020, 10:11:01 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 08, 2020, 03:31:34 PM
Tests paired with robust contact tracing would have worked, with phased reopening, but you need to keep the numbers of cases low or else the contact tracing doesn't work particularly well. We never kept cases low.

Masks appear to help quite a bit. If people wear them, including covering their nose, and don't go spend a bunch of time with unmasked people outside their household because "they're friends/family; I'm sure it's safe!"


we have plenty of tests here in Iowa with robust contact tracing

not working if you check hospital numbers, which are more important numbers in my opinion
also more masks in my part of Iowa than ever
not working
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 08, 2020, 10:19:21 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 08, 2020, 10:11:01 PM
we have plenty of tests here in Iowa with robust contact tracing

not working if you check hospital numbers, which are more important numbers in my opinion
also more masks in my part of Iowa than ever
not working
You've mentioned on several occasions that masks aren't nearly uniform, you've posted pictures of indoor bar dining, you've talked about how things were so normal where you live.

If you're now wondering why thing are the way they are, it reminds me of an episode of the Simpsons...

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 08, 2020, 10:58:23 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 08, 2020, 02:19:37 PM
Here too.

This house doesn't have a basement. I don't think there are many houses in Florida with basements. No need for them, and the water table is high in most places.
Better run like hell when a blow comes in.I like basements,it's where we keep kegs and hide from everything but fires and floods
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 08, 2020, 11:24:23 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 08, 2020, 01:52:04 PM
Do you think you have a scoop here? If you do, I have news for you. You don't.
I said it back in March/April.  Because it was obvious, yet somehow lost on many.  Anyways, it's great that it's decreasing drastically in many places, like here.  I hope it keeps going that way.

I visited my buddy in Vegas.  He's in higher spirits about his cancer because he's got the doctors at UCLA who worked on his heart when he was younger on the case.  If anyone deserves a health break, it's him.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 09, 2020, 06:19:11 AM
I said the same thing (as did many others here).

I've also said many more of "us" have had it than we know.

I've said that we cannot shut down our economy for this.

And yes, I said this came to us from China intentionally - to shut down our economy.

I'll stand by all of those.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 09, 2020, 08:00:05 AM
The experience in Sweden does suggest a lot of us have some resistance to COVID, perhaps developed by exposure to some similar corona virus 2-3-4 years back.  Maybe.

I still can't explain why states and countries see a peak and then it falls off unless that is the case.  If you think folks "get religion" and take precautions more than they did, well, that is a possible factor as well.

I don't see that personally around here.  Precautions are the same as they were in May and June.  We had a surge in June that was very concerning up to nearly 4,000 reported cases per day, and now it has dropped to near 1,000, with no change in state policy and no obvious change in personal behaviors.  School was out in June obviously, it was getting hot if that matters, what else?  

July came and the numbers dropped rather dramatically.  Why?  I don't know, unless the herd thing was approached somehow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 09, 2020, 08:52:05 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 09, 2020, 08:00:05 AM
The experience in Sweden does suggest a lot of us have some resistance to COVID, perhaps developed by exposure to some similar corona virus 2-3-4 years back.  Maybe.

I still can't explain why states and countries see a peak and then it falls off unless that is the case.  If you think folks "get religion" and take precautions more than they did, well, that is a possible factor as well.

I don't see that personally around here.  Precautions are the same as they were in May and June.  We had a surge in June that was very concerning up to nearly 4,000 reported cases per day, and now it has dropped to near 1,000, with no change in state policy and no obvious change in personal behaviors.  School was out in June obviously, it was getting hot if that matters, what else? 

July came and the numbers dropped rather dramatically.  Why?  I don't know, unless the herd thing was approached somehow.

That's absolutely the case, here.  We didn't just reopen back in May/June, but people also became FAR less conscientious about distancing and mask-wearing.  Then the increases began in June/July, not just cases but hospitalizations and deaths.  The bars were shut down again, and people reverted to more careful behavior.

Texas will be reopening bars officially once again, but in reality many of them have been open for a month or two at this point.  They started serving "food" and became reclassified as restaurants, circumventing the rules.  But the distancing and mask-wearing is still FAR more present, than it was during May/June.

Now our cases are mostly tied to younger people who are out and about more than they were in March/April, they're less fearful, and they're testing positive but pretty much zero hospitalizations/deaths are resulting.

This virus is among us, it's not going anywhere, it will be with us forever.  We need to be careful to protect at-risk populations, and beyond that, we need to go back to our lives.  There is no "new normal" because we can't stay hunkered down forever, or even another several months.  This is it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 09, 2020, 09:32:49 AM
If behaviors changed around here, I'd guess it was for the worse.  Mobility has continued to rise in Georgia (and I see near normal traffic now).  And I think most folks have simply adjusted to the "new normal".  I was just in Kroger, and I didn't think twice about wearing the mask.  

They had a prime rib roast for $6.99 a pound, I think I'll cut into three thick steaks and grill them later.  I don't know why they call it prime, it's ribeye and Choice cut.

Asparagus $1.77 per lb.  

Dinner.  I got a case of Regusci Rose yesterday that I have not tried yet, they had a big sale on that, around $22 per bottle, normally $35.  Regusci is one of my favorites.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 09, 2020, 09:37:58 AM
I'm headed down to the beach in an hour, taking the RV and camping for the next 5 days for the "Columbus Day" weekend.  

We've got prime filet and strip, burgers, dogs, homemade carnitas for tacos, and a bunch of stuff to put in the deep fryer on Saturday to pay tribute to the TX-OU game on Saturday which would normally be going on during the State Fair.  Stupid coronas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 09, 2020, 09:42:25 AM
I'll be there in four hours.  


The wife likes tacos a lot, especially fish tacos.  I make them using the left over flat iron steak that I grill, cutting it into smaller chunks. It's an easy lunch or dinner.  We prefer the soft tacos.

Oh, and something about the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 09, 2020, 10:29:44 AM
Giddyup.  I like all kinds of tacos.  The tortilla makes a huge difference, home-made (or, I suppose, in-house-made is more accurate) is always so much better than storebought off the shelf, for both corn and flour torts.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on October 09, 2020, 10:45:40 AM
Quote from: utee94 on October 09, 2020, 08:52:05 AM
This virus is among us, it's not going anywhere, it will be with us forever.  We need to be careful to protect at-risk populations, and beyond that, we need to go back to our lives.  There is no "new normal" because we can't stay hunkered down forever, or even another several months.  This is it.
Yup.

We should just be thankful it wasn’t a more lethal virus that was unleashed from China. Next one could be way more serious. I really think EU and US should ban all travel from/to China. We don’t need those rat bastards. They can keep making our crap for pennies on the dollar, but other than that they don’t need to come here or to Europe. F**k em.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 09, 2020, 11:04:07 AM
Northwestern researchers found that 1 in 5 Chicagoans have antibodies.

I'm telling you all. More of us have had this than we think.

Mrs. 847 and I got tested for the Wuhan Flu today. Every 3-4 weeks. Can't hurt. We have some older friends down here, and we did it for them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 09, 2020, 11:06:11 AM
https://scan.northwestern.edu/ (https://scan.northwestern.edu/)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 09, 2020, 12:06:18 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 09, 2020, 11:04:07 AM
Northwestern researchers found that 1 in 5 Chicagoans have antibodies.

I'm telling you all. More of us have had this than we think.

Personally it's hard to tell if it's the antibodies or Jim Beam
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 09, 2020, 12:16:17 PM
Last I read, the antibody test was not particularly reliable ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 09, 2020, 12:20:19 PM
So the Beam is working?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 09, 2020, 12:45:25 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 09, 2020, 12:16:17 PM
Last I read, the antibody test was not particularly reliable ...
It's reliable, but the antibodies only last 2-3 months. I tested positive in early May, and negative in mid-June.

So, if NU were to test me for antibodies today, I'd be negative. And I've had the virus. 

This thing got started in November, but it wasn't until March that we really knew anything about it. I air-travelled extensively from November to March. So did many others.

I think you can see what I'm getting at here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 09, 2020, 12:47:14 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 09, 2020, 12:16:17 PM
Last I read, the antibody test was not particularly reliable ...
No, the issue with the antibody test is that if the actual incidence in the population of antibodies is very low, then the false positive/negative rates of the test make it difficult to trust the test. 

For example, let's say there's a 1.5% prevalence of antibodies in the population, and the antibody test has a 1% false positive rate. As a result, you'll expect roughly a 2.5% positive result when you test that population.

That's problematic. First because if you're making population-level decisions, and 40% of your positive results are false, it's too big of a proportion. But second, if you're one of those people who received a positive antibody test, you only have 60% confidence that you ACTUALLY have antibodies. So personally do you know that you have actually had COVID when that positive test can only tell you with slightly better than a coin flip confidence?

Now, if you have 20% prevalence of antibodies in the population, and the antibody test has a 1% false positive rate, you'll expect to have a 20.8% positive result when you test that population. That's a much smaller error margin. And if you're one of those who was tested and received a positive result, you now have slightly better than 96% confidence that your test revealed actual antibodies and not a false positive. 

Of course, that's a complex explanation for a complex phenomenon, and the only thing laypeople took from it was that the tests aren't reliable. And then blame "experts" for not knowing what they're talking about. :96:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 09, 2020, 01:34:02 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 09, 2020, 06:19:11 AM
I said the same thing (as did many others here).

I've also said many more of "us" have had it than we know.

I've said that we cannot shut down our economy for this.

And yes, I said this came to us from China intentionally - to shut down our economy.

I'll stand by all of those.
Standing by while lacking evidence......smart.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 09, 2020, 01:39:53 PM
FL Governor Ron DeSantis:  We're all-the-way open!
Schools/Franchises with massive stadiums:  What?
DeSantis:  Yeah, you can fill your stadiums now!
Teams:  Uhhh, seriously?
DeSantis:  Yes!  You're welcome!
Teams:  That seems pretty irresponsible.  No thanks.
DeSantis:  C'mon, lets pack the stadiums!  65, 75, 90 thousand fans!  Think of the money!!!
Teams:  You're nuts.  We'll keep it at 15-20% capacity, because it's the responsible thing to do.
DeSantis:  But why not?!?  It'll make the president's narrative look good!
Teams:  Are you trying to cause an outbreak?!?  WTF?!?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 09, 2020, 01:55:40 PM
Fiction is for shit.

Kudos to the Governor for allowing the people to make their own decisions. Imagine that. 

A Governor who is not a dictator? 

I like.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 09, 2020, 02:30:30 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 09, 2020, 01:55:40 PM
Fiction is for shit.

Kudos to the Governor for allowing the people to make their own decisions. Imagine that.

A Governor who is not a dictator?

I like.
Your idea here is broken by one particular word:  own.  Not wearing a mask isn't endangering your own health....it endangers others' health.  

Broken.  Wrong.  Selfish.  Irresponsible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 09, 2020, 02:41:27 PM
Ever business I've entered is requiring masks for entry. That is their decision. And if I come across one that does not require masks, I will not enter. My decision.

Government mandates are bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 09, 2020, 02:41:44 PM
Masks or no, anyone who shows up to a football game right now is kinda making the statement that they've assumed the risk for themselves. And anyone who thinks that's a stupid risk is free to avoid attending [as I would avoid if it were me]. 

The question comes down to whether we should allow stupid people to be stupid in large groups, knowing that infections will then spread outward from there once they all leave the game. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on October 09, 2020, 02:56:12 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 09, 2020, 02:41:44 PM
Masks or no, anyone who shows up to a football game right now is kinda making the statement that they've assumed the risk for themselves. And anyone who thinks that's a stupid risk is free to avoid attending [as I would avoid if it were me].

The question comes down to whether we should allow stupid people to be stupid in large groups, knowing that infections will then spread outward from there once they all leave the game.
Wear your mask and keep 6 feet away from people and you will be safe of the "stupid" people. That is what we are being told.

So only the stupid people should get the virus and let Darwin take control. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 09, 2020, 03:08:37 PM
We are ALL going to get this virus. 

It is inevitable. And then we will all be immune.

Keep your immune system in good condition. That will help.

Vitamin A
Vitamin C
Vitamin D
Iodine
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 09, 2020, 03:18:49 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on October 09, 2020, 02:56:12 PM
Wear your mask and keep 6 feet away from people and you will be safe of the "stupid" people. That is what we are being told.

So only the stupid people should get the virus and let Darwin take control.
Eh. Wearing a mask and being 6' away make you safeR, not safe. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 09, 2020, 03:38:30 PM
There are some with over active immune systems who get hit very hard by this virus, the cytokine explosion thing.

I doubt we'll all get it.  I remain optimistic about the vaccine situation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 09, 2020, 03:41:22 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 09, 2020, 03:38:30 PM
I doubt we'll all get it.  I remain optimistic about the vaccine situation.
I agree. I'd much rather take my immunity in a vaccine than chance catching the virus by acting cavalier about it, and I'm not particularly high risk. 

I think we're going to see a vaccine probably available in limited quantities by early 2021, and widely available before mid-2021. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 09, 2020, 04:01:05 PM
Yep.

Having had it, it's not that bad, and I was obese at the time, and a cigar smoker. 

Probably drank too much on top of all that (obesity and all that).

That said, I would not want it again, so until it is 100.0000% that you cannot get it again, I'm going to be careful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 09, 2020, 04:46:11 PM

During WWII Bernard Law Montgomery(an overblown windbag IMO)said to Winston Churchill (paraphrasing) "I neither smoke or drink and am 100% fit"Churchill responded "I drink and smoke and am 200% fit"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 09, 2020, 06:12:43 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on October 09, 2020, 04:46:11 PM
During WWII Bernard Law Montgomery(an overblown windbag IMO)said to Winston Churchill (paraphrasing) "I neither smoke or drink and am 100% fit"Churchill responded "I drink and smoke and am 200% fit"
one of my favorite Churchill quotes is when some lady said to him "Sir you are drunk" to which he replied "tomorrow I will be sober but you will still be ugly"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on October 09, 2020, 06:57:28 PM
Things I’ve learned: 

Ron DeSantis is the shit.

OAM is a Pie in the sky pussy.

Well, I already knew the last one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 09, 2020, 07:15:45 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 09, 2020, 06:12:43 PM
one of my favorite Churchill quotes is when some lady said to him "Sir you are drunk" to which he replied "tomorrow I will be sober but you will still be ugly"
I believe it was the same woman who also said if I was your wife I poison your tea he responded if you were my wife I'd drink it.

Churchill's mother was American but he was steadfast in British political interests.So the USA didn't always see I2I with the Crown's government nor play party to it.Leading Winnie to state "You can always count on the Americans to do the right thing - after they tried everything else"

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 09, 2020, 08:40:56 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on October 09, 2020, 06:57:28 PM
Things I’ve learned:

Ron DeSantis is the shit.

OAM is a Pie in the sky pussy.

Well, I already knew the last one.
I love you playing the manliness card vs a virus.  Brilliant.  Out-tough it, right?  Hey, let's punch it out of the patients!  Hey, I heard if you don't shave for 3 days, you're immune!  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 09, 2020, 08:41:54 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 09, 2020, 02:41:44 PM
Masks or no, anyone who shows up to a football game right now is kinda making the statement that they've assumed the risk for themselves. And anyone who thinks that's a stupid risk is free to avoid attending [as I would avoid if it were me].

The question comes down to whether we should allow stupid people to be stupid in large groups, knowing that infections will then spread outward from there once they all leave the game.
Stupid people should be allowed to be stupid when their stupidity endangers themselves, NOT when it endangers everyone else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 09, 2020, 08:43:49 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 09, 2020, 04:01:05 PM
Yep.

Having had it, it's not that bad,
Repeat after me:  I am a sample size of one.  

You and cincy should start a club called the "Anecdotal Factuals" and hit the road.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 09, 2020, 08:45:29 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on October 09, 2020, 06:57:28 PM
Things I’ve learned:

Ron DeSantis is the shit.

And DeSantis bragged about how well FL was doing days before it exploded there - a state full of old people with a virus that kills them off.  Yeah, he's the shit, alright.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 09, 2020, 10:20:48 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 09, 2020, 08:41:54 PM
Stupid people should be allowed to be stupid when their stupidity endangers themselves, NOT when it endangers everyone else.
apparently Trump survived it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on October 10, 2020, 12:39:49 AM
I’m happy to report that my mom is home from the hospital. She was in there for 3-4 days.  She received REMDISVR and plasma. She’s resting at home and is on supplemental oxygen for a week or two while she recovers. 

I’m sad to report that my dad is losing his battle with Covid. He’s been on the ventilator since last Monday and he’s getting weaker by the day. As I stated he was already in poor health before this started so it’s not surprising. Even if he somehow beats the virus I’m afraid the effects of being hospitalized for weeks will weaken him enough that he never really recovers enough to make it home. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 10, 2020, 01:08:27 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 09, 2020, 08:43:49 PM
Repeat after me:  I am a sample size of one. 

You and cincy should start a club called the "Anecdotal Factuals" and hit the road.
You should spend more time spinning your Wham records and spooning with Allen Harper.If left up to twat waffles such as yourself humanity would still be scratching on cave walls in Mesopotamia.As long as you are not sucking off the Government then ya shut everything down.The thought of a petulant,ill equipped,misguided knob such as you having to actually fend for yourself fills me with incredible joy
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 10, 2020, 04:26:17 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 09, 2020, 08:43:49 PM
Repeat after me:  I am a sample size of one. 

You and cincy should start a club called the "Anecdotal Factuals" and hit the road.
Repeat after me.

There is a sample size of millions who have had it and felt nothing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 10, 2020, 05:28:16 AM
I obviously prefer statistics over anecdotal evidence.  My 32 year old kid in Texas had it and it was far from asymptomatic.

That's an anecdote.  I still don't really understand what is happening with this disease.  You can point to Florida as a disaster, and it appeared to be along with AZ and GA and whatever else, and then rather mysteriously the case rate went down.  A lot.  Maybe this is due to folks getting scared and being more cautious, maybe.

Italy appears to be starting a new rise in reported cases that is significant.  That had been lagging a bit as France and Spain took off.  They are nearing their peak new reported case rate from April, which was very bad.

France is at three times it's max in April now, over 20,000 new cases per day.  Deaths remain low, which is obviously a sign our treatments have improved, or older folks are more protected, but this thing is nearing crisis mode in France.  Sweden is also picking up again, around 700 cases per day.

I don't see much correlation between behaviors and case rates, but it's possible that is the explanation.

I also am not sure what public health steps should be taken NOW to limit this disease beyond what we're doing.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 10, 2020, 06:06:21 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 10, 2020, 05:28:16 AM
I obviously prefer statistics over anecdotal evidence.  My 32 year old kid in Texas had it and it was far from symptomatic.

That's an anecdote.  I still don't really understand what is happening with this disease.  You can point to Florida as a disaster, and it appeared to be along with AZ and GA and whatever else, and then rather mysteriously the case rate went down.  A lot.  Maybe this is due to folks getting scared and being more cautious, maybe.

Italy appears to be starting a new rise in reported cases that is significant.  That had been lagging a bit as France and Spain took off.  They are nearing their peak new reported case rate from April, which was very bad.

France is at three times it's max in April now, over 20,000 new cases per day.  Deaths remain low, which is obviously a sign our treatments have improved, or older folks are more protected, but this thing is nearing crisis mode in France.  Sweden is also picking up again, around 700 cases per day.

I don't see much correlation between behaviors and case rates, but it's possible that is the explanation.

I also am not sure what public health steps should be taken NOW to limit this disease beyond what we're doing.


1. Seems that some of "us" have natural immunity.

2. The public needs to take care of itself. Choose to protect yourself, or choose to not protect yourself. Natural selection is natural.

I don't remember your son being far from symptomatic. I thought he had some issues. Maybe I misremember. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 10, 2020, 06:37:52 AM
I meant far from asymptomatic.  He was very sick for four days, short of breath, almost unable to walk across the room.  I was trying to figure out how to get out to him for a few days.  No apparent lingering symptoms.

It obviously can hit a healthy young individual hard at times (cytokines and all that).  

I don't think I have had it.  I was sick in France in January, but I think it was bronchitis, a lot of congestion and coughing, I stayed in bed several days.  Every time I'm on an 8 hour flight it seems I get sick.  

We're taking a short driving trip on Monday, three nights in motels.  I have reviewed their precautionary steps.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 10, 2020, 06:53:54 AM
Sounds to me as though you had it. It was definitely in Europe at that point. The Spaniards found evidence that it was in their country in September 2019.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 10, 2020, 07:05:20 AM
I remember having a ton of congestion.  I was blowing my nose almost nonstop.  I didn't have particular issues breathing.  I did cough quite a bit, I thought I had bronchitis, which I have had a few times before, along with a bad cold.

I have not been sick since other than that brief reaction to the shingles vaccine.  In France, other than the airplane and CDG, I didn't have much exposure to people.  We got a rental car and drove straight to our daughter's house.  The plane was about half full as I recall, it being January.  Not many folks go to France in January.

The weather there is pretty icky in winter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 10, 2020, 07:13:07 AM
Air travel is enough to do it. Or, was enough is what I should probably say. It's pretty safe now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 10, 2020, 09:19:15 AM
Good news for your mother, Gigem

tough for your father, hope and pray he somehow turns it around and makes a recovery

good luck and hang in there
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 11, 2020, 04:00:37 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 10, 2020, 06:06:21 AM
1. Seems that some of "us" have natural immunity.

2. The public needs to take care of itself. Choose to protect yourself, or choose to not protect yourself. Natural selection is natural.
So you're going to continue down that path and toss out all medicines, processed foods, vehicles, machinery, air-conditioning, and plastic, right?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 11, 2020, 07:43:58 AM
Natural selection would continue even with modern conveniences.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 11, 2020, 09:28:22 AM
I still don't really understand what we should be doing differently NOW to manage the virus.  The treatments of acute cases appear to be having better outcomes.  The elderly are mostly being isolated.  Do we need another economic shut down now?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 11, 2020, 09:33:48 AM
Absolutely no to another shutdown. That only works for people who work for government. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 11, 2020, 10:00:28 AM
Georgia appears to be leveling off right now in all respects.  Reported new cases is down from around 3700 in June to around 1200 now, which is a fairly substantial drop of course.  Related factors are also down, deaths are running around 40 per day.

There is no trend at the moment I can see.  The state is quasi-open with the usual safeguards and no large gatherings, and has been for months now.

I still am not able to explain that drop in new cases without invoking some latent resistance theory.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 11, 2020, 03:27:46 PM
Anyone care to offer what the country should be doing NOW on this topic (that is not being done)?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 11, 2020, 04:17:14 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 11, 2020, 03:27:46 PM
Anyone care to offer what the country should be doing NOW on this topic (that is not being done)?
we should stop enjoying ourselves and stay at home suffering until after the election 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 11, 2020, 05:12:41 PM
Well, OK, I see some folks posting about doom and gloom and if anyone posted what we SHOULD be doing differently NOW I missed it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 11, 2020, 06:51:24 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 11, 2020, 04:17:14 PM
we should stop enjoying ourselves and stay at home suffering until after the election
I doubt there's any straw left after you guys' posts on this topic.  There's going to be a haybale shortages because of all of the strawmen you've conjured.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on October 11, 2020, 07:01:43 PM
Quote from: Gigem on October 10, 2020, 12:39:49 AM
I’m happy to report that my mom is home from the hospital. She was in there for 3-4 days.  She received REMDISVR and plasma. She’s resting at home and is on supplemental oxygen for a week or two while she recovers.

I’m sad to report that my dad is losing his battle with Covid. He’s been on the ventilator since last Monday and he’s getting weaker by the day. As I stated he was already in poor health before this started so it’s not surprising. Even if he somehow beats the virus I’m afraid the effects of being hospitalized for weeks will weaken him enough that he never really recovers enough to make it home.
Sorry to hear about your dad, man.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 11, 2020, 07:09:21 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 11, 2020, 05:12:41 PM
Well, OK, I see some folks posting about doom and gloom and if anyone posted what we SHOULD be doing differently NOW I missed it.
crickets
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 11, 2020, 07:52:39 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 11, 2020, 07:09:21 PM
crickets
Planning on replying tomorrow. Don't want to pull the laptop out today and hate long replies on the phone. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on October 11, 2020, 08:00:02 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 09, 2020, 02:41:44 PM
Masks or no, anyone who shows up to a football game right now is kinda making the statement that they've assumed the risk for themselves. And anyone who thinks that's a stupid risk is free to avoid attending [as I would avoid if it were me].

The question comes down to whether we should allow stupid people to be stupid in large groups, knowing that infections will then spread outward from there once they all leave the game.
I disagree with this. When I read your posts it seems like you think anyone who attends a football game (or honestly, does anything that isn’t an absolute necessity) is exhibiting a devil may care attitude.  I think there are a lot of people in the middle between never leaving the house and going to a bar with wall to wall people.

I think that because that’s where I am. I think it would be entirely possible to go to a football game with 15k in attendance in a 80k capacity stadium and really have very little interaction with other people.  I actually wouldn’t consider that a huge risk.

My impression is you consider anyone who does anything that isn’t a necessity as someone who is reckless and takes no precautions.  Maybe I’m reading too much into your posts. Idk.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 11, 2020, 11:17:38 PM
GREELEY, Colo. -- A medical professional hired to screen employees at the JBS meatpacking plant in Greeley claims she was pressured to get employees through the door and feels the company continues to put workers at risk.

The claims come roughly six months after one of the nation’s largest plants was forced to close after an outbreak of COVID-19.


“I want the governor to know. I want everyone to know,” Buck said. “I want them to know those employees are in danger,” said Sarah-Jean Buck, a licensed medical assistant who was hired through a temp agency to screen employees of the JBS meatpacking plant in Greeley.

Buck made her claims in a signed affidavit and in an exclusive television interview with Denver7 Investigates. She spent two months working at the plant.

Buck was working as a temporary employee through a private contractor hired by JBS. Her responsibility was to question, screen and take temperatures of the thousands of employees reporting for work each day.

She said her greatest concern was being told to let employees enter the plant, regardless of if they were sick or not.


https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/investigations/whistleblower-says-covid-19-screening-process-at-jbs-plant-places-employees-in-danger (https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/investigations/whistleblower-says-covid-19-screening-process-at-jbs-plant-places-employees-in-danger)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 11, 2020, 11:22:16 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 11, 2020, 07:09:21 PM
crickets
You're watching the clock on a web forum on a Sunday, with posters across 4 time zones.  Exhibit A.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 11, 2020, 11:40:42 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 11, 2020, 11:22:16 PM
You're watching the clock on a web forum on a Sunday, with posters across 4 time zones.  Exhibit A.
and yet you found the time to post amazing

still crickets 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 12, 2020, 05:58:35 AM
https://judithcurry.com/2020/10/10/what-the-pandemic-has-taught-us-about-science/#more-26644

An interesting read, for me anyway, whatever you may think about Curry.

The health of science depends on tolerating, even encouraging, at least some disagreement. In practice, science is prevented from turning into religion not by asking scientists to challenge their own theories but by getting them to challenge each other, sometimes with gusto. Where science becomes political, as in climate change and Covid-19, this diversity of opinion is sometimes extinguished in the pursuit of a consensus to present to a politician or a press conference, and to deny the oxygen of publicity to cranks. This year has driven home as never before the message that there is no such thing as “the science”; there are different scientific views on how to suppress the virus.

Anthony Fauci, the chief scientific adviser in the U.S., was adamant in the spring that a lockdown was necessary and continues to defend the policy. His equivalent in Sweden, Anders Tegnell, by contrast, had insisted that his country would not impose a formal lockdown and would keep borders, schools, restaurants and fitness centers open while encouraging voluntary social distancing. At first, Dr. Tegnell’s experiment looked foolish as Sweden’s case load increased. Now, with cases low and the Swedish economy in much better health than other countries, he looks wise. Both are good scientists looking at similar evidence, but they came to different conclusions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 12, 2020, 06:14:48 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 11, 2020, 11:22:16 PM
You're watching the clock on a web forum on a Sunday, with posters across 4 time zones.  Exhibit A.
So, what is the US supposed to do differently? Now, today, and tomorrow too. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 12, 2020, 06:18:54 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 12, 2020, 05:58:35 AM
https://judithcurry.com/2020/10/10/what-the-pandemic-has-taught-us-about-science/#more-26644

An interesting read, for me anyway, whatever you may think about Curry.

The health of science depends on tolerating, even encouraging, at least some disagreement. In practice, science is prevented from turning into religion not by asking scientists to challenge their own theories but by getting them to challenge each other, sometimes with gusto. Where science becomes political, as in climate change and Covid-19, this diversity of opinion is sometimes extinguished in the pursuit of a consensus to present to a politician or a press conference, and to deny the oxygen of publicity to cranks. This year has driven home as never before the message that there is no such thing as “the science”; there are different scientific views on how to suppress the virus.

Anthony Fauci, the chief scientific adviser in the U.S., was adamant in the spring that a lockdown was necessary and continues to defend the policy. His equivalent in Sweden, Anders Tegnell, by contrast, had insisted that his country would not impose a formal lockdown and would keep borders, schools, restaurants and fitness centers open while encouraging voluntary social distancing. At first, Dr. Tegnell’s experiment looked foolish as Sweden’s case load increased. Now, with cases low and the Swedish economy in much better health than other countries, he looks wise. Both are good scientists looking at similar evidence, but they came to different conclusions.
I get a kick out of some of those who display signs or wear t-shirts that say "trust the science" and crap like that.

The science?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 12, 2020, 06:32:06 AM
Misunderstanding of science and the scientific process is common, unfortunately, even among some scientists at times.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 12, 2020, 07:13:02 AM
Florida reported 3700 new cases yesterday. Sounds bad?

107K+ test were done to get that number.

Hospitalizations are down. Percent positive is down. 

I wonder how things will go when things start to get really busy (when the Midwest and NE show up). Hopefully they don't screw things up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 12, 2020, 01:25:31 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 11, 2020, 05:12:41 PM
Well, OK, I see some folks posting about doom and gloom and if anyone posted what we SHOULD be doing differently NOW I missed it.
Ok... So here goes.

First thing is that "we" as a formal legislative nation (or republic of legislative states) probably don't need to do much differently. I would like to see coast-to-coast mask mandates. I think restrictions on large gatherings (concerts, sporting events, etc) is probably still good policy. If I were a governor or member of a state legislature, I would NOT reopen large gatherings. Occupancy limits that enforce distancing on indoor dining/bars, etc, are still IMHO good policy. SChools that reopent should make sure they can meet physical distancing guidelines and require masks. If my 11 yo autistic son can wear a mask all day, Karen's little snowflakes can do it. These are easy things that we can do, without completely shuttering the economy, that IMHO are going to help keep R0 down. 

The second thing, however, is messaging. The basic ideas of social distancing, encouraging WFH for any industry/job that can do it, of trying to primarily only congregate with your own household, are important and need to be consistently highlighted AND explained. Where I think we're failing is that people think "reopening" means the danger has passed, but that's far from true. We need to go beyond just saying what is open or closed, and move to explain to people what they should be doing and why. 

So I'd try to actively message the following:

-The key of all this behavior modification is to reduce the spread, not necessarily to change the risk of any given individual from contracting the virus. Too many young people are cavalier about their behavior because they're not in an age group that they're afraid of poor outcomes from the virus. Too many people are refusing to wear masks because they don't think they need to protect themselves. The whole idea is to reduce R0, and that comes from everyone taking basic precautions to reduce the spread, not to avoid getting infected themselves. 

-The best way to reduce the spread is to WFH, to stay home with the exception of essential business, and to only congregate with your own household. However that's known to be unrealistic, both for huge portions of the population who can't do it (i.e. can't WFH), and for the emotional/mental health aspects of isolation. But people should think about that as the "baseline goal" to work from. 

-If you need--or want--to move up from the baseline, there are ways to do so more responsibly:



-The key of all these modifications is to be cognizant that you may not be able to 100% avoid the virus in life, but that we ALL need to work together to reduce R0. That doesn't mean "stay at home in fear of the world", but that means that reopening is not "back to normal". 

The other thing about ALL working together? It means that can't rely only on sheltering vulnerable populations, because we can't always do that. Too many of them have to interact with the world, whether it be for work or otherwise. Thus it means that those of us that have the MOST freedom and capability to avoid engaging in activities which spread it should be extra careful, so that WE don't hurt those in vulnerable populations. 

The goal here is to get through with the least loss of life we can until a vaccine is available. There is a lot of promising work on that, such that I think widespread vaccine availability late in the first half of 2021 is possible. So thinking about every action you take, not just in the arena of "what is my risk of contracting the virus if I do X?" should be modified to be "what is my likelihood of spreading the virus to someone vulnerable if I get it?" instead. 

That's my $0.02. We focus all of our effort on what's open or closed. We don't focus on the messaging of what leads to spread of the virus and how people can engage with the world in less risky ways than just going back to normal. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 12, 2020, 01:29:12 PM
pretty good for 2 cents worth

unfortunately, our "leaders" aren't good with common sense or a common message
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 12, 2020, 01:39:43 PM
Testing is important too. We got tested Friday and resulted yesterday. Negative.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 12, 2020, 02:41:12 PM
I thought we were doing nearly all of that, at least where we live...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 12, 2020, 02:42:00 PM
I don't think we should arrest or cite a person walking down the street with no mask.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on October 12, 2020, 02:59:44 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 12, 2020, 02:42:00 PM
I don't think we should arrest or cite a person walking down the street with no mask.
I'm with you here. Some state and local governments have been on EPIC power trips since this entire corona bullshit started.

Not to mention- this thing doesn't really spread outdoors- it spreads INDOORS. It trips me out seeing people outside wearing masks when there aren't people within 200 feet from them or MORONS driving their cars completely alone wearing masks.

Besides, whatever happened to natural selection?

If some old as dirt people want to go out in public and walk around without masks- let them. If some 400 pound fat ass with diabetes or heart disease wants to go in public and walk around without a mask- let them. If some immune-compromised person wants to go out and about without a mask- let them. It's their choice. You know, they could keep their asses inside their homes and order UberEats, DoorDash, Instacart grocery delivery, Walmart grocery delivery, etc., etc..
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 12, 2020, 03:03:25 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 12, 2020, 02:42:00 PM
I don't think we should arrest or cite a person walking down the street with no mask.

as long as they're walking down the street mostly maintaining social distancing and being respectful of others

a coast to coast mask mandate would also need good guidelines, and simple requirements with simple enforcement procedures
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 12, 2020, 03:05:50 PM
It isn't enforceable.  The police are busy with stuff.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 12, 2020, 03:11:35 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 12, 2020, 03:03:25 PM
as long as they're walking down the street mostly maintaining social distancing and being respectful of others

a coast to coast mask mandate would also need good guidelines, and simple requirements with simple enforcement procedures
cant do a national mandate as its the state's business

it would fail in court
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 12, 2020, 03:15:14 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 12, 2020, 02:41:12 PM
I thought we were doing nearly all of that, at least where we live...
I think we've been focusing a lot on what's "allowed" and less so about helping people trying to navigate living in this world with COVID. It's a more complicated message, but I find less discussion of how to live safely and more about what we can or can't do.

Quote from: FearlessF on October 12, 2020, 03:03:25 PM
as long as they're walking down the street mostly maintaining social distancing and being respectful of others

a coast to coast mask mandate would also need good guidelines, and simple requirements with simple enforcement procedures
Yeah, most mask mandates that I've seen basically say you should always wear one when inside a building with others, and that you should wear one outside when you're unable to social distance. 

So, for example, when I walk the dog, I don't wear a mask. I can easily maintain 6' (and much more) distance from anyone in my neighborhood, so the mask won't be necessary. When I go to the golf course, I wear the mask when I approach the clubhouse, when I'm walking through the area to fill my bucket of balls for the range, and when I walk to a range stall. Because I'm not sure I can maintain distance. 

Not complicated. 

Quote from: Mdot21 on October 12, 2020, 02:59:44 PM
If some old as dirt people want to go out in public and walk around without masks- let them. If some 400 pound fat ass with diabetes or heart disease wants to go in public and walk around without a mask- let them. If some immune-compromised person wants to go out and about without a mask- let them. It's their choice. You know, they could keep their asses inside their homes and order UberEats, DoorDash, Instacart grocery delivery, Walmart grocery delivery, etc., etc..
Yeah, why does the world need fat or old people anyway? Ew. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 12, 2020, 03:15:47 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 12, 2020, 03:11:35 PM
cant do a national mandate as its the state's business

it would fail in court
True. When I said "coast to coast" I mean that every state should have one. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on October 12, 2020, 03:19:42 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 12, 2020, 03:05:50 PM
It isn't enforceable.  The police are busy with stuff.
More busy now in a lot of areas that have "defunded the police!" because crime rates have skyrocketed in those areas. Lol. Like did idiots really think if you get rid of police or put shackles on police that crime would magically just go down?

I am all for police reform. But do people honestly think police aren't necessary? Lol.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on October 12, 2020, 03:23:14 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 12, 2020, 03:15:14 PM
Yeah, why does the world need fat or old people anyway? Ew.
We shouldn't change the way we live for at risk people. They can stay at home and take every precaution necessary. It's not my fault they are living longer than people were intended too bc of modern medicine or that some people are so god damn fat and undisciplined they can't put the big mac down and go hit the treadmill. These two groups are pretty much 90+% of COVID deaths.

The world doesn't need to end and the economy doesn't need to go down the tubes into a great depression because of them. They can stay at home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Benthere2 on October 12, 2020, 03:32:01 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 12, 2020, 03:05:50 PM
It isn't enforceable.  The police are busy with stuff.
or could you imagine all the cells full of people that didnt wear masks?  then an outbreak form those being arrested because of no masks.  you would however gain herd immunity faster this way
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 12, 2020, 03:39:43 PM
Good thinking there Ben.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 12, 2020, 04:07:02 PM
no need to arrest decent folks for not wearing a mask

a simple citation would do.  After 3 of them, send them a fine to be paid.  $50 first and then double it to $100

folks that aren't decent, start freaking out and causing trouble with law enforcement or other decent folks should be arrested and fined immediately
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 12, 2020, 04:49:49 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on October 12, 2020, 03:19:42 PM
More busy now in a lot of areas that have "defunded the police!" because crime rates have skyrocketed in those areas. Lol. Like did idiots really think if you get rid of police or put shackles on police that crime would magically just go down?

I am all for police reform. But do people honestly think police aren't necessary? Lol.
They don't. But most of the actual pushes that go under that banner aren't really about closing down all law enforcement for good. Alas, we're in an era where words often don't mean what they mean. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 12, 2020, 05:01:32 PM

Quote from: Mdot21 on October 12, 2020, 03:23:14 PM
We shouldn't change the way we live for at risk people. They can stay at home and take every precaution necessary. It's not my fault they are living longer than people were intended too bc of modern medicine or that some people are so god damn fat and undisciplined they can't put the big mac down and go hit the treadmill. These two groups are pretty much 90+% of COVID deaths.

The world doesn't need to end and the economy doesn't need to go down the tubes into a great depression because of them. They can stay at home.
The narrative efforts to make these problems always something that could affect others and not one's self have been an interesting hallmark of this event. I suppose I shouldn't be bothered by leading without a shred of empathy, but it does always feel weird just the same. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 12, 2020, 05:02:55 PM
words are many times exaggerated 

how many times yesterday did announcers call out a play or a reception as "unbelievable" or "amazing" or "miraculous"

we could all very easily "believe" that the play happened

the WR was "wide open" or "covered like a blanket"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 12, 2020, 05:06:57 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 12, 2020, 05:02:55 PM
words are many times exaggerated

how many times yesterday did announcers call out a play or a reception as "unbelievable" or "amazing" or "miraculous"

we could all very easily "believe" that the play happened

the WR was "wide open" or "covered like a blanket"
This last one is exceptionally overused, TBH
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 12, 2020, 05:37:51 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 12, 2020, 05:01:32 PM
The narrative efforts to make these problems always something that could affect others and not one's self have been an interesting hallmark of this event. I suppose I shouldn't be bothered by leading without a shred of empathy, but it does always feel weird just the same.
Yeah, the whole "I probably won't die, so why should I change my behavior just to help other people?" take seems exceptionally callous. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 12, 2020, 05:41:53 PM
Literally doesn't mean it any more.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 12, 2020, 08:02:14 PM
Just looked at the trends in the US for cases... I don't know how strong of a correlation it is, but it certainly appears that Northern/cold states are seeing bigger increases right now than Southern/warm states. 

Do you all agree, or is this a figment of my imagination?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 12, 2020, 08:23:20 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/yC5qNQz.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/dR3K0tT.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/C8tinnJ.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/Bq0RaGr.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/QDzvwd3.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 12, 2020, 09:47:50 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 12, 2020, 08:02:14 PM
Just looked at the trends in the US for cases... I don't know how strong of a correlation it is, but it certainly appears that Northern/cold states are seeing bigger increases right now than Southern/warm states.

Do you all agree, or is this a figment of my imagination?
I agree if you consider Iowa a northern/cold state
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 13, 2020, 06:34:38 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 12, 2020, 08:02:14 PM
Just looked at the trends in the US for cases... I don't know how strong of a correlation it is, but it certainly appears that Northern/cold states are seeing bigger increases right now than Southern/warm states.

Do you all agree, or is this a figment of my imagination?
Sure seems like it is increasing. What I always ask when case spikes happen is how many tests are being done.

Yes, Illinois reported its most cases in a day since May, yesterday. Of course, that's the headline. No mention of the number of tests, which is probably 5 times what it was in May.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 13, 2020, 09:04:56 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 13, 2020, 06:34:38 AM
Sure seems like it is increasing. What I always ask when case spikes happen is how many tests are being done.

Yes, Illinois reported its most cases in a day since May, yesterday. Of course, that's the headline. No mention of the number of tests, which is probably 5 times what it was in May.
I've long tried to focus on percentage, with half an eye toward total tests. 

Ideally the percentage should be super low, since the availability of tests is so much higher. Illinois' percentage is a bit higher than the low in July (4.4 to 2.7), though drastically down from earlier. Wisconsin though, yikes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 13, 2020, 09:11:25 AM
Yep. Left Kenosha just in time, just as we left Florida just in time back in early June.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 13, 2020, 09:16:54 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 13, 2020, 09:04:56 AM
I've long tried to focus on percentage, with half an eye toward total tests.

Ideally the percentage should be super low, since the availability of tests is so much higher. Illinois' percentage is a bit higher than the low in July (4.4 to 2.7), though drastically down from earlier. Wisconsin though, yikes.
Iowa now is reporting percentage of tests positive

around 10% lately
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 13, 2020, 09:23:09 AM
While the number of positive cases is of interest I think the better stat to monitor is hospitalizations and deaths

That is because the number of tests will not affect these stats

I would be curious to look at the % of increase or decrease of these two stats in states with increasing positive cases
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 13, 2020, 09:24:57 AM
hospitalizations are at an all-time high in Iowa
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 13, 2020, 10:11:10 AM
DES MOINES, Iowa — As of 9:00 a.m. on Monday, Oct. 12th, 2020, 100,044 people have been infected with the novel coronavirus in the Hawkeye State.

Of those, 425 infections are new over the last 24-hours, since 9:00 a.m. Sunday.

So far, 76,491 recoveries have been recorded, up by 237.

There are currently 449 people hospitalized due to coronavirus in the state, up by 11 since yesterday; 109 patients are currently in the ICU.


State health officials say 1,462 people have died due to the disease, up 2.

The above numbers add up to 22,091 active COVID infections statewide, an all-time high for the state.


As of now, 864,455 individuals in Iowa have been tested for COVID infection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 13, 2020, 11:11:17 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 13, 2020, 10:11:10 AM
DES MOINES, Iowa — As of 9:00 a.m. on Monday, Oct. 12th, 2020, 100,044 people have been infected with the novel coronavirus in the Hawkeye State.

Of those, 425 infections are new over the last 24-hours, since 9:00 a.m. Sunday.

So far, 76,491 recoveries have been recorded, up by 237.

There are currently 449 people hospitalized due to coronavirus in the state, up by 11 since yesterday; 109 patients are currently in the ICU.


State health officials say 1,462 people have died due to the disease, up 2.

The above numbers add up to 22,091 active COVID infections statewide, an all-time high for the state.


As of now, 864,455 individuals in Iowa have been tested for COVID infection.
I think Iowa should monitor this closely but dont feel its alarming yet

if only 109 are in ICU its very manageable

so far the death count is very good compared to other states

not saying its good only that it could be far worse
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 13, 2020, 11:12:49 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 13, 2020, 09:11:25 AM
Yep. Left Kenosha just in time, just as we left Florida just in time back in early June.
A friend with family up there said the northern half of the state is taking the worst of it, which somewhat dovetails with my "we sometimes look too much for reasons theory," though it might be confirmation bias. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 13, 2020, 11:20:29 AM
Not much of the state is in great shape, as far as case rates go.

https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/county.htm#rate%20map

In terms of death rate, they are in better shape (so far).

https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/county.htm#number%20deaths%20map
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 13, 2020, 11:25:17 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 13, 2020, 11:11:17 AM
I think Iowa should monitor this closely but dont feel its alarming yet

if only 109 are in ICU its very manageable

so far the death count is very good compared to other states

not saying its good only that it could be far worse
agreed

just a bit disappointing, I keep hoping for much better news
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 13, 2020, 01:20:46 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 13, 2020, 09:23:09 AM
While the number of positive cases is of interest I think the better stat to monitor is hospitalizations and deaths

That is because the number of tests will not affect these stats

I would be curious to look at the % of increase or decrease of these two stats in states with increasing positive cases
It's always tough because both hospitalizations and deaths lag case increases--deaths typically lag about 3 weeks. And a lot of those northern states have smaller populations, so daily death numbers tend to be pretty noisy.

On a national level, we've seen a marked increase (~20%) in the 7-day moving average of daily cases in the last two weeks. If things follow trend, the national daily death rates should start rising in roughly about 10 days. It's been pretty stable for weeks now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 13, 2020, 01:28:34 PM
The treatments are better now than they have ever been. Hopefully the death numbers are much lower as a result.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 13, 2020, 01:34:29 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 13, 2020, 01:20:46 PM
It's always tough because both hospitalizations and deaths lag case increases--deaths typically lag about 3 weeks. And a lot of those northern states have smaller populations, so daily death numbers tend to be pretty noisy.

On a national level, we've seen a marked increase (~20%) in the 7-day moving average of daily cases in the last two weeks. If things follow trend, the national daily death rates should start rising in roughly about 10 days. It's been pretty stable for weeks now.
actually over the last two weeks its closer to 10%

and the deaths might not have an increase due to increased testing and improved treatment methods

lets hope
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 13, 2020, 01:36:21 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 13, 2020, 01:28:34 PM
The treatments are better now than they have ever been. Hopefully the death numbers are much lower as a result.
Reported deaths are trending stably in the ~725 daily range. Looking back 2-3 weeks, we had a pretty stable daily new case rate somewhere in the ~41K range.

That would be roughly a 1.75% death rate for *confirmed* cases. Obviously we don't know the true denominator of actual cases over that period (asympotmatic / untested)... So the true IFR is assuredly lower than that; we just don't know by how much. But that's not a particularly good rate especially now that we have more tests available and lower positive percentages in most places. Especially given that we believe that young people are making up more of the positive confirmed cases these days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 13, 2020, 01:39:07 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 13, 2020, 01:34:29 PM
actually over the last two weeks its closer to 10%
I looked back to Sep 28 and worldometers had the 7-day MA at 41,688. Yesterday it was at 50,612... 21.4% increase.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 13, 2020, 01:41:44 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 13, 2020, 01:36:21 PM
Reported deaths are trending stably in the ~725 daily range. Looking back 2-3 weeks, we had a pretty stable daily new case rate somewhere in the ~41K range.

That would be roughly a 1.75% death rate for *confirmed* cases. Obviously we don't know the true denominator of actual cases over that period (asympotmatic / untested)... So the true IFR is assuredly lower than that; we just don't know by how much. But that's not a particularly good rate especially now that we have more tests available and lower positive percentages in most places. Especially given that we believe that young people are making up more of the positive confirmed cases these days.
There are going to be deaths, for sure, and a lot of them are just people who are not healthy. Co-morbids are huge here, and most of the deaths have 3 or more. There just isn't much that can be done for most of those.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 13, 2020, 02:13:40 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 13, 2020, 01:39:07 PM
I looked back to Sep 28 and worldometers had the 7-day MA at 41,688. Yesterday it was at 50,612... 21.4% increase.
looking at weekly totals

week ending 9/24/20 the total 7 day amount was 310,875

week ending 10/1/20 the total 7 day amount was 309,200

week ending 10/8/20 the total 7 day amount was 339,092

week ending 10/12/20 the total 7 day amount was 358,145

increase is about 16% from 309,200 to 358,145

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 13, 2020, 02:45:46 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 13, 2020, 02:13:40 PM
looking at weekly totals

week ending 9/24/20 the total 7 day amount was 310,875

week ending 10/1/20 the total 7 day amount was 309,200

week ending 10/8/20 the total 7 day amount was 339,092

week ending 10/12/20 the total 7 day amount was 358,145

increase is about 16% from 309,200 to 358,145
Interesting. What source are you using? 

Worldometers shows a 7-day MA of 43,035 on Oct 1, and from that you get that there were 301,245 over the previous 7 days. So that's a little lower than what you're showing. Not sure where the disconnect is. 

That said you want to actually do a 2-week period based on an Oct 1 date, you should wait a few more days to the week ending 10/15. For 10/12, you would use a 7-day total ending 9/29. But since the 9/24 was also basically the same level, we can assume that the 7 day total ending 9/29 was likely right around 310K anyway.

I'm not going to quibble over the difference between 16% and my original 20%, but it's still a fair jump above 10%. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 13, 2020, 02:52:16 PM
Not gonna quibble? You feeling OK?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 13, 2020, 02:53:30 PM
well, it is his buddy 320
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 13, 2020, 03:00:30 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 13, 2020, 02:52:16 PM
Not gonna quibble? You feeling OK?
Well, I'm quibbling that the original claim "it's more like 10%" is therefore inaccurate. I claim vindication on that point. 16% is closer to 20% than it is to 10%, so even if I accept the numbers, 16% is "more like 20%" than it is like 10%. 

But I think he's using a different dataset than I am, so a few percent difference can show up. Especially when if I use the same Oct 1->Oct12 window (not actually two weeks) I get 17.6%. 

But there's no point in quibbling when I've already been shown to be right. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 13, 2020, 03:05:15 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 13, 2020, 03:00:30 PM
Well, I'm quibbling that the original claim "it's more like 10%" is therefore inaccurate. I claim vindication on that point. 16% is closer to 20% than it is to 10%, so even if I accept the numbers, 16% is "more like 20%" than it is like 10%.

But I think he's using a different dataset than I am, so a few percent difference can show up. Especially when if I use the same Oct 1->Oct12 window (not actually two weeks) I get 17.6%.

But there's no point in quibbling when I've already been shown to be right.
Im using worldometer data recorded on a daily basis
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 13, 2020, 03:09:16 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/UlMIr3o.png)



Here is the daily data on new cases from worldometer
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 13, 2020, 03:20:26 PM
That's odd. If you look at their actual graph and mouse over the dates, their daily numbers don't line up with what you posted...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us

Most are close (within a few hundred), but some are a couple thousand off. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 13, 2020, 03:32:58 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 13, 2020, 03:20:26 PM
That's odd. If you look at their actual graph and mouse over the dates, their daily numbers don't line up with what you posted...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us

Most are close (within a few hundred), but some are a couple thousand off.

I recorded these numbers after they closed out the day

it may be that they update the day numbers after closing it out not sure
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 13, 2020, 03:40:55 PM
to get the daily number I subtract yesterdays YTD number from todays YTD number so if a day is off it will correct itself the next day
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 13, 2020, 03:43:29 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 13, 2020, 03:32:58 PM
I recorded these numbers after they closed out the day

it may be that they update the day numbers after closing it out not sure
Yeah, there are various adjustments. Sometimes states and counties don't report as timely as every day, and there are times that they've had to parse those reports to make sure that cases get applied to the appropriate day.

There have also been big numbers where a state will report some numbers they'd been missing. For example a state will say "we're reporting 5,000 today that were not reported over the past 30 days", and worldometers usually has that 5,000 in their total the first day but then revise and apply it to the previous 30 days weighted against the rest of the state's volume across those 30 days. 

I don't know what happened Oct 7, but apparently a bunch of states did that. Their explanation will give you a good idea of what they do with the numbers:

Quote
Oct 7
Updates
  • 49,358 new cases and 930 new deaths in the United States (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

    NOTES:
    Lousiana: "LDH is reporting 1,052 new cases, including a backlog of 406 cases with collection dates before 9/16" [source (https://ldh.la.gov/Coronavirus/)]  Worldometer has distributed the backlog cases accordingly.
    North Dakota: of the 24 newly reported deaths, 16 occurred in the past few days and were redistributed by Worldometer according to the information gathered.
    South Dakota: DOH added “probable cases” to case counts. A probably case includes persons with positive antigen test for SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19. There were 47 “probable cases” announced with 562 new confirmed cases. Confirmed cases are people with positive RT-PCR tests. The state added 421 new “probable cases” to the total case count on Wednesday. [source (https://www.keloland.com/news/local-news/covid-19-in-south-dakota-562-new-positive-cases-death-toll-rises-to-258-active-cases-at-4511/)]  Worldometer has distributed these 421 cases over the time series.
    Kentucky: of the 2,393 reported cases today, 1,467 occurred in the past and have been therefore redistributed by Worldometer over the time series ("*Due to an upload of a significant backlog of case data from one jurisdiction, the majority of today's cases are from weeks past. The actual number of new cases today without the backlog is 926." [source (https://chfs.ky.gov/agencies/dph/covid19/COVID19DailyReport.pdf)])
    Texas:
    Denton County: "CPH is including 1,181 positive COVID-19 antigen tests that have been reported and investigated within the last few weeks.  In response to the change in testing trends, DCPH will also report antigen positive tests daily." [source (https://ago-item-storage.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/299cb78fe63e4a1196285694750850a8/Press_Release_1240_New_COVID-19_Cases_in_Denton_County_as_DCPH_Introduces_Antigen_Test_Reporting_10.06.2020.pdf?X-Amz-Security-Token=IQoJb3JpZ2luX2VjEOP%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2FwEaCXVzLWVhc3QtMSJHMEUCIAuzll%2BY31qbJr77q6KUd8alpx0%2Bibbcn%2Fjr6UD0WRyuAiEAvthRXMmIigXXM9Sw1cZF%2BUMpkutswefgpKh5RqID73YqtAMIHBAAGgw2MDQ3NTgxMDI2NjUiDAyeOyNhTxncz2wmlyqRA5Pncw9P6%2Bt8rr8wQ4lwhEdM%2FYLwuqwP54Z1%2FRm4asRVxnru4Yf0eQdDNrh4PvgaVIBCYSnlNIlyqmsU9eUS82S9WMZouP07NyBQYtmPJMoKO2QUvftGEpNgHAAMU2yJPN2QNQ74G0z6svIlp7CEskrQ7rBRoAmMcsKS%2FlhSDuBXZzDmzSFqZWTND7U7QHwwpi59I9yNf09lHpIswutfiqHN7qQCPwv79f%2FZmjKxQcw1EQkuaR9PI1fhKcNsIhVefbFKWHnkF54gXd0OSfbb2L4pbkoDToMiM9wuoIHXqqNU88jL2GWmvcVSV6ttgvRnTDkOKIj75nS75L2TWtcfHODNszSJM2T%2Bx5X2CLw0qnuGdN7S4mn416x8sGwNF687OI9QRKHxGNvDrRO2kRFy6rzPIfAWOXFCzc0mcfnzCXKeEmKmdyGjvdMw7c5D7atmBgfXcJlDLtfBpoC7rtEzLvAyNfGGXhLtCuyqpQibwBUhwKUfFBoIWjShHyI5vpt41hqU1DikiOku6hkD5tUB0VRjMOee%2BPsFOusB%2B78LAljgJJAJI1RNaCTbtgBHSNyQ6ct1tGEul66YQ45zQHvqdAnvfSaSOPJBLdu%2BDlyV%2FYlsfpGkTy%2FRPoBDMfVGNFphm8DaFiua2z6XhdpsMY0lH4t8cY6%2BsdWLJdAwINatP%2B3VnQgNEfCZFze9gxEZGLWyU1ceq5pNUmhasOqCbsN0g90upekG2kxquRRHgW8Ve0zxAJhrMN865eAvYl0rXfyixagvAHRoSFtfEkQlzZ6pN3vBTVklIQXGUCokEaICA44J1xspjkjvzJJur4lsZh%2FOR0s8FVWRPjOCpjUKMQp0mhCaHRyF1w%3D%3D&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Date=20201007T200044Z&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Expires=300&X-Amz-Credential=ASIAYZTTEKKERZ3GZ3UM%2F20201007%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Signature=452e562469d781168ade4ce9414e548639f839c0d25352dbff29b38d42ec04cb)] Worldometer has distributed the additional cases over the time series based on the historical graph of daily antigen cases provided by DCPH.
    Harris County: of the 625 cases reported today, 434 occurred in the past. [source (https://publichealth.harriscountytx.gov/Resources/2019-Novel-Coronavirus)] Worldometer has redistributed them accordingly.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 13, 2020, 03:52:05 PM
On their chart, Oct 7 now reports 49,358 new daily cases nationally. Your spreadsheet above shows 53,478. 

That's a difference of 4120. If you look at the above, they reference 406, 421, 1467, 1181, and 434 cases that occurred in the past. That's 3909 cases, pretty close to the 4120. 

They're constantly trying to revise to get the numbers assigned to the right dates, even when states don't actually report things on time accurately reflecting the dates that cases/deaths occurred.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 13, 2020, 04:07:00 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 13, 2020, 03:52:05 PM
On their chart, Oct 7 now reports 49,358 new daily cases nationally. Your spreadsheet above shows 53,478.

That's a difference of 4120. If you look at the above, they reference 406, 421, 1467, 1181, and 434 cases that occurred in the past. That's 3909 cases, pretty close to the 4120.

They're constantly trying to revise to get the numbers assigned to the right dates, even when states don't actually report things on time accurately reflecting the dates that cases/deaths occurred.
kinda like trying to hit a moving target
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 13, 2020, 04:09:53 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 13, 2020, 04:07:00 PM
kinda like trying to hit a moving target
A little bit, yeah. 

Kinda hard to rely on government employees to release things on time and accurately, so sometimes you have to clean up their mistakes after the fact. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on October 13, 2020, 04:13:43 PM
I’m sad to report my dad has passed from COVID-19. He was in the hospital for 2 weeks on a ventilator. It attacked his lungs. We knew after the first week that it was grim. Thank you for all your thoughts and prayers. 

Be careful out there. I know that it’s mostly the old and vulnerable who are dying but you never know how your body will respond. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 13, 2020, 04:27:21 PM
Quote from: Gigem on October 13, 2020, 04:13:43 PM
I’m sad to report my dad has passed from COVID-19. He was in the hospital for 2 weeks on a ventilator. It attacked his lungs. We knew after the first week that it was grim. Thank you for all your thoughts and prayers.

Be careful out there. I know that it’s mostly the old and vulnerable who are dying but you never know how your body will respond.
very sorry to hear this

glad your mom survived 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 13, 2020, 04:36:22 PM
Quote from: Gigem on October 13, 2020, 04:13:43 PM
I’m sad to report my dad has passed from COVID-19. He was in the hospital for 2 weeks on a ventilator. It attacked his lungs. We knew after the first week that it was grim. Thank you for all your thoughts and prayers.

Be careful out there. I know that it’s mostly the old and vulnerable who are dying but you never know how your body will respond.
I'm truly sorry for your loss. And yes, definitely being careful, even though I've had it already. You never know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 13, 2020, 04:37:01 PM
And I know it can be a little weird, but you've got support here when you need it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 13, 2020, 04:42:32 PM
Quote from: Gigem on October 13, 2020, 04:13:43 PM
I’m sad to report my dad has passed from COVID-19. 

Be careful out there. I know that it’s mostly the old and vulnerable who are dying but you never know how your body will respond.
Gigem Condolences
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 13, 2020, 04:43:29 PM
Quote from: Gigem on October 13, 2020, 04:13:43 PM
I’m sad to report my dad has passed from COVID-19. He was in the hospital for 2 weeks on a ventilator. It attacked his lungs. We knew after the first week that it was grim. Thank you for all your thoughts and prayers.

Be careful out there. I know that it’s mostly the old and vulnerable who are dying but you never know how your body will respond.
My most sincere apologies for that loss.  I hope time will at least dull the pain
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: DevilFroggy on October 13, 2020, 04:58:21 PM
Earlier last month I lost my grandpa to COVID. He was pretty old (87) and had some health issues and thus comorbidities, but he'd still be here right now if not for COVID. 

My dad has gone from taking it super seriously in March to thinking it's mostly overblown now, and given he's 69 and not as healthy as he used to be I worry about him quite a bit. 

Thankfully at least my 67 year old mother and her husband do take it pretty seriously and continue to exercise plenty of caution.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: DevilFroggy on October 13, 2020, 04:59:08 PM
Quote from: Gigem on October 13, 2020, 04:13:43 PM
I’m sad to report my dad has passed from COVID-19. He was in the hospital for 2 weeks on a ventilator. It attacked his lungs. We knew after the first week that it was grim. Thank you for all your thoughts and prayers.

Be careful out there. I know that it’s mostly the old and vulnerable who are dying but you never know how your body will respond.

My condolences, Gigem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 13, 2020, 05:02:46 PM
Quote from: Gigem on October 13, 2020, 04:13:43 PM
I’m sad to report my dad has passed from COVID-19. He was in the hospital for 2 weeks on a ventilator. It attacked his lungs. We knew after the first week that it was grim. Thank you for all your thoughts and prayers.

Be careful out there. I know that it’s mostly the old and vulnerable who are dying but you never know how your body will respond.
I'm so, so sorry. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 13, 2020, 05:07:05 PM
Quote from: Gigem on October 13, 2020, 04:13:43 PM
I’m sad to report my dad has passed from COVID-19. He was in the hospital for 2 weeks on a ventilator. It attacked his lungs. We knew after the first week that it was grim. Thank you for all your thoughts and prayers.

Be careful out there. I know that it’s mostly the old and vulnerable who are dying but you never know how your body will respond.
Sorry to hear this. I'm like you in that if my parents got it, probably at least one wouldn't survive based on age and co-morbidities. It's one of my worries until we get through this.

Best wishes as you deal with this loss. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 13, 2020, 05:08:41 PM
Is there research on whether or not I could carry the virus again, having had it, without symptoms but still be contagious?

I'm curios about that, very much. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 13, 2020, 05:12:07 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 13, 2020, 05:08:41 PM
Is there research on whether or not I could carry the virus again, having had it, without symptoms but still be contagious?

I'm curios about that, very much.
This just popped up... 

https://www.foxnews.com/health/first-coronavirus-reinfection-case-us-north-america 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 13, 2020, 05:38:26 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 13, 2020, 05:12:07 PM
This just popped up...

https://www.foxnews.com/health/first-coronavirus-reinfection-case-us-north-america
thank God this is very rare
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 13, 2020, 08:12:56 PM
https://fee.org/articles/new-study-casts-more-doubt-on-effectiveness-of-masks-in-preventing-covid-19-spread/



https://exhortingoneanother.createaforum.com/news/backflip-w-h-o-condemns-coronavirus-lockdowns-just-doubling-global-poverty/





Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 13, 2020, 09:13:26 PM
Quote from: Gigem on October 13, 2020, 04:13:43 PM
I’m sad to report my dad has passed from COVID-19. He was in the hospital for 2 weeks on a ventilator. It attacked his lungs. We knew after the first week that it was grim. Thank you for all your thoughts and prayers.

Be careful out there. I know that it’s mostly the old and vulnerable who are dying but you never know how your body will respond.
very sad

hang in there

I'm very sorry
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 13, 2020, 09:43:03 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 13, 2020, 08:12:56 PM
https://fee.org/articles/new-study-casts-more-doubt-on-effectiveness-of-masks-in-preventing-covid-19-spread/



https://exhortingoneanother.createaforum.com/news/backflip-w-h-o-condemns-coronavirus-lockdowns-just-doubling-global-poverty/






https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/L20-0745


Notice ice of retraction.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 14, 2020, 07:58:35 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 13, 2020, 05:12:07 PM
This just popped up...

https://www.foxnews.com/health/first-coronavirus-reinfection-case-us-north-america
So.. what good is a vaccine then?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 14, 2020, 08:47:34 AM
maybe you only get the virus once or twice instead of 3 or 4 times ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 14, 2020, 08:48:22 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 14, 2020, 07:58:35 AM
So.. what good is a vaccine then?
reinfections are very rare

so far we only know of 2 out of 7,000,000 in the US
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on October 14, 2020, 09:24:15 AM
Thank you to all who responded.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 14, 2020, 11:30:55 AM
Not sure what, but if there is anything any of us can do to help, reach out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 14, 2020, 12:36:15 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 14, 2020, 07:58:35 AM
So.. what good is a vaccine then?
It depends what the vaccine targets. 

This is a bit old but talks about the idea that vaccines may be able to protect against more than one strain. 

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/85604
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 14, 2020, 03:03:50 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 13, 2020, 05:38:26 PM
thank God this is very rare
It's very rare NOW.  In 3 months, it could be common.  THIS DOESN'T WORK ON YOUR TIMELINE.  



So this is what the right does?  Talk crap about the virus, naysay it, downplay it, and sweep 200,000 dead people under the rug, but when one of our own loses a parent, you're suddenly sorry?

Deplorable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 14, 2020, 03:11:36 PM
Who the hell here has downplayed this? We are all aware of the dangers of the damn thing, and most of us feel very sorry for loss of life - especially those elderly who were sentenced to a needless death in NY and NJ, and the front line people (guys who deliver your pizza included).

Most of us here are completely not in favor of shutting down the country because of this virus.

That's what China wanted. The answer is NO.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 14, 2020, 03:24:49 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 14, 2020, 03:03:50 PM
It's very rare NOW.  In 3 months, it could be common.  THIS DOESN'T WORK ON YOUR TIMELINE. 



So this is what the right does?  Talk crap about the virus, naysay it, downplay it, and sweep 200,000 dead people under the rug, but when one of our own loses a parent, you're suddenly sorry?

Deplorable.
OAM youre so full of doggy poop that when you walk you leak brown
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 14, 2020, 03:37:56 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 14, 2020, 03:11:36 PM
Who the hell here has downplayed this? We are all aware of the dangers of the damn thing, and most of us feel very sorry for loss of life - especially those elderly who were sentenced to a needless death in NY and NJ, and the front line people (guys who deliver your pizza included).  Sound, reasonable share.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Most of us here are completely not in favor of shutting down the country because of this virus.
That's what China wanted. The answer is NO.  WTF does this part have to do with anything???????????
Perfect post sample.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 14, 2020, 03:43:04 PM
China's economy was already in the tank due to the trade deal. China gets a deadly virus on its hands. China closes travel inside its country and locks, but allows international travel, including to the US.

I suppose you think this was an accident.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 14, 2020, 03:50:43 PM
I heard one scientist say the other day that the fact that this virus shows no sign of future mutation that its a sign that it was lab developed

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 14, 2020, 03:52:51 PM
well, he's a scientist, so...........

believe the science
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 14, 2020, 03:54:15 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 14, 2020, 03:50:43 PM
I heard one scientist say the other day that the fact that this virus shows no sign of future mutation that its a sign that it was lab developed


If it's not mutating, how were there already 6 known strains as of August?

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200803105246.htm

Literally if this "scientist" can be debunked in a 10-second search on Google, maybe he should consider a new career where being right is not as important as saying what someone wants to hear... Like maybe politics.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 14, 2020, 03:54:27 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 14, 2020, 03:03:50 PM
 
It's very rare NOW.  In 3 months, it could be common.  THIS DOESN'T WORK ON YOUR TIMELINE.
Ring the nurses station your pants are full again
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 14, 2020, 03:55:00 PM
@Gigem (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1706) condolences on your loss, I'm so sorry to hear that!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 14, 2020, 03:55:21 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 14, 2020, 03:52:51 PM
well, he's a scientist, so...........

believe the science
why not all the dems do
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 14, 2020, 03:56:45 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 14, 2020, 03:54:15 PM
If it's not mutating, how were there already 6 known strains as of August?

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200803105246.htm

Literally if this "scientist" can be debunked in a 10-second search on Google, maybe he should consider a new career where being right is not as important as saying what someone wants to hear... Like maybe politics.
And we can believe everything we read on the internet?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 14, 2020, 03:59:10 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 14, 2020, 03:54:15 PM
If it's not mutating, how were there already 6 known strains as of August?

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200803105246.htm

Literally if this "scientist" can be debunked in a 10-second search on Google, maybe he should consider a new career where being right is not as important as saying what someone wants to hear... Like maybe politics.
did you read your article? little variability is probably what the scientist meant

Im not a scientist just repeating what this guy said

you know just like meatheads on tv says all the scientists say there is man caused global warming
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 14, 2020, 04:01:05 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on October 14, 2020, 03:56:45 PM
And we can believe everything we read on the internet?
Of course not... Honest Abe said so...


(https://i.imgur.com/bqWP2LD.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 14, 2020, 04:06:44 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 14, 2020, 03:59:10 PM
did you read your article? little variability is probably what the scientist meant

Im not a scientist just repeating what this guy said

you know just like meatheads on tv says all the scientists say there is man caused global warming
Scientists [good ones, anyway] are usually very careful with their words, and therefore they usually say exactly what they mean. They don't depend on their listener to determine what they meant. 

But sure, go ahead and believe a scientist who you haven't named nor given us the ability to validate his claims when he says what you want to believe [confirmation bias], while attacking other scientists who are saying things that you don't want to believe...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on October 14, 2020, 04:08:41 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 14, 2020, 03:03:50 PM
It's very rare NOW.  In 3 months, it could be common.  THIS DOESN'T WORK ON YOUR TIMELINE. 



So this is what the right does?  Talk crap about the virus, naysay it, downplay it, and sweep 200,000 dead people under the rug, but when one of our own loses a parent, you're suddenly sorry?

Deplorable.
Are you this dramatic in real life or just on here? Because that’s some serious pearl clutching for a few people passing along condolences to someone who lost a parent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 14, 2020, 04:08:55 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 14, 2020, 04:06:44 PM
Scientists [good ones, anyway] are usually very careful with their words, and therefore they usually say exactly what they mean. They don't depend on their listener to determine what they meant.

But sure, go ahead and believe a scientist who you haven't named nor given us the ability to validate his claims when he says what you want to believe [confirmation bias], while attacking other scientists who are saying things that you don't want to believe...
OK Mr internet nazi  now will you please kiss my ass
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 14, 2020, 04:12:31 PM
Hey now fight nice everyone but you can pile on OAM
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 14, 2020, 04:22:52 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on October 14, 2020, 04:12:31 PM
Hey now fight nice everyone but you can pile on OAM
sorry theres just so much condescension I can take
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 14, 2020, 04:37:31 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on October 14, 2020, 04:08:41 PM
Are you this dramatic in real life or just on here? Because that’s some serious pearl clutching for a few people passing along condolences to someone who lost a parent.
I'm guessing just here in real life someone would have reached up that skirt along time ago
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 14, 2020, 04:39:45 PM
Yeah, it's my fault. I forgot what I was dealing with...


Quote
Reasoning will never make a Man correct an ill Opinion, which by Reasoning he never acquired
-Jonathan Swift

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 14, 2020, 04:47:59 PM
I remember the day I got the news my dad had passed.  I knew right away that nothing would ever be the same. Not a day goes by that I dont think of him. 

Hang in there Gigem its gonna take a little time but this pain will eventually turn into a fond memory.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 14, 2020, 05:01:08 PM
what's the definition of a scientist?

is this guy a real scientist or is this just the label that he prefers
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 14, 2020, 05:06:57 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 14, 2020, 05:01:08 PM
what's the definition of a scientist?

is this guy a real scientist or is this just the label that he prefers
A person who practices in a science field for which they were educated.

I consider engineers to be scientists, as well as medical doctors (but certainly not doctors of liberal arts).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 14, 2020, 05:08:13 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 14, 2020, 05:01:08 PM
what's the definition of a scientist?

is this guy a real scientist or is this just the label that he prefers
all I know is that his name was Bill Nye
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 14, 2020, 05:16:20 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 14, 2020, 05:06:57 PM
A person who practices in a science field for which they were educated.

I consider engineers to be scientists, 
Hence the term mad scientist ;-b
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 14, 2020, 05:19:18 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 14, 2020, 05:06:57 PM
A person who practices in a science field for which they were educated.


I'm not impressed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 14, 2020, 05:33:19 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 14, 2020, 05:08:13 PM
all I know is that his name was Bill Nye
William Sanford Nye (born November 27, 1955)[3] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Nye#cite_note-Rutgers_Commencement_Speaker-3), popularly known as Bill Nye the Science Guy, is an American science communicator (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_communication), television presenter (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_presenter), and mechanical engineer (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mechanical_engineering). He is best known as the host of the PBS and syndicated children's science show Bill Nye the Science Guy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Nye_the_Science_Guy) (1993–1998), the Netflix show Bill Nye Saves the World (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Nye_Saves_the_World) (2017–2018), and for his many subsequent appearances in popular media as a science educator.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 14, 2020, 05:33:41 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 14, 2020, 05:19:18 PM
I'm not impressed
Why?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 14, 2020, 05:35:28 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 14, 2020, 05:33:19 PM
William Sanford Nye (born November 27, 1955)[3] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Nye#cite_note-Rutgers_Commencement_Speaker-3), popularly known as Bill Nye the Science Guy, is an American science communicator (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_communication), television presenter (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_presenter), and mechanical engineer (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mechanical_engineering). He is best known as the host of the PBS and syndicated children's science show Bill Nye the Science Guy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Nye_the_Science_Guy) (1993–1998), the Netflix show Bill Nye Saves the World (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Nye_Saves_the_World) (2017–2018), and for his many subsequent appearances in popular media as a science educator.
and he was on Big Bang Theory
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 14, 2020, 05:36:47 PM
A person who practices in a science field for which they were educated

pretty vague - how where they educated?, where and what do they practice?

what science field?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 14, 2020, 05:38:46 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 14, 2020, 05:08:13 PM
all I know is that his name was Bill Nye
Ok so he's not a doctor, biologist, virologist, and his education was mechanical engineering.

Not the guy I'd trust on bioweapons matters. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 14, 2020, 05:57:01 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 14, 2020, 05:38:46 PM
Ok so he's not a doctor, biologist, virologist, and his education was mechanical engineering.

Not the guy I'd trust on bioweapons matters.
maybe so but he can make a hard boiled egg get sucked into a jar
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 14, 2020, 06:11:42 PM
The other thing about it is this... How do you lab-design a virus to not mutate? I mean, that's what viruses do. Their RNA replication mechanism is by nature error-prone (so is human DNA, but much less so) and I can't even think of a way that would make sense. 

Maybe there's something I'm missing there, because of course I'm not a virologist either. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on October 14, 2020, 06:14:12 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 14, 2020, 05:08:13 PM
all I know is that his name was Bill Nye
BILL BILL BILL BILL BILL
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 14, 2020, 06:21:29 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 14, 2020, 06:11:42 PM
The other thing about it is this... How do you lab-design a virus to not mutate? I mean, that's what viruses do. Their RNA replication mechanism is by nature error-prone (so is human DNA, but much less so) and I can't even think of a way that would make sense.

Maybe there's something I'm missing there, because of course I'm not a virologist either.
Im sitting there drinking a beer and half asleep when I hear in the tv background a guy being interviewed and he said what I said he said

dont know more then that

it was probably a communist plot
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on October 14, 2020, 08:15:16 PM
Les Miles is positive for Covid but apparently is still planning on making the trip to Morgantown this weekend. Wtf?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on October 14, 2020, 08:45:42 PM
Must be a grass therapy in dem hills.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 14, 2020, 11:09:23 PM
Saban has Covid.  This is called "predictable."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 15, 2020, 12:28:16 AM
Florida vs LSU postponed, due to Covid spike.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 15, 2020, 12:29:09 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 14, 2020, 03:43:04 PM
China's economy was already in the tank due to the trade deal. China gets a deadly virus on its hands. China closes travel inside its country and locks, but allows international travel, including to the US.

I suppose you think this was an accident.
I suppose you think any of that is evidence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 15, 2020, 12:30:20 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 14, 2020, 04:08:55 PM
OK Mr internet nazi  now will you please kiss my ass
Poster posts BS.
Poster is called out on it.
Poster calls names because he doesn't have a leg to stand on.


Thus is the internet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 15, 2020, 12:31:02 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 14, 2020, 04:22:52 PM
sorry theres just so much condescension I can take
I'm surprised you didn't type 'condensation', lol.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on October 15, 2020, 12:45:55 AM
What is it when the State Health Commissioner of a State gets it?    This spreads to people in uber restricted states and wide open states.   Its all predictable.   It's a fing virus.  I dont think theres a entity outside of Antarctica on the globe that has 'solved' it.  Nobody's got no hit stuff.  Save going into bunker mode, any positive test is predictable.    More tests, no vaccine,  more cases.    My wife's going to bring it home some day from a patient, or a nurse or a surgeon, that's predictable.  But we wear masks, and I rarely leave home.  'Told ya'.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on October 15, 2020, 06:30:01 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 14, 2020, 11:09:23 PM
Saban has Covid.  This is called "predictable."
Lmao. Of course it’s predictable. It’s a virus millions have already contracted. It would have been “predictable” whether they played football or not.

What is predictable is you posting a “Told ya” post anytime a player or coach gets it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 15, 2020, 06:40:04 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 15, 2020, 12:29:09 AM
I suppose you think any of that is evidence.
It's all true. Show me what is not true. Do it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 15, 2020, 06:43:19 AM
Quote from: Kris60 on October 15, 2020, 06:30:01 AM
Lmao. Of course it’s predictable. It’s a virus millions have already contracted. It would have been “predictable” whether they played football or not.

What is predictable is you posting a “Told ya” post anytime a player or coach gets it.
Correct Kris and that's deductive reasoning but thicko who would have us believe she's some kind of in instructor can't grasp that concept.Though that doesn't stop the Keyboard Kommando from popping off when she peceives her pony tail has been pulled.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 15, 2020, 06:47:21 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 15, 2020, 06:40:04 AM
It's all true. Show me what is not true. Do it.
Badge just run the tainted waif,nobody invited her,prolly wore out its welcome from wence it came.And unabated for 3 years hasn't passed up the oportunity to shit in the doorway of every freakin' thread
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 15, 2020, 07:09:51 AM
It was not predictable for me to get it when I had it. I flew a whole lot between November and March. 

It would have been nice to know about this thing about a year ago. 

We know China knew about it, but they chose to weaponize it. And then...

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 15, 2020, 08:03:23 AM
I think OAM is actually a roach that comes out from under stuff after the lights are turned off and we go to bed

Speaking of predictable, thats predictable
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 15, 2020, 08:10:14 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 15, 2020, 07:09:51 AM
It was not predictable for me to get it when I had it. I flew a whole lot between November and March.
Sent you pretty good advice about flying - from a Pilot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2020, 09:12:51 AM
Les Miles isn't the sharpest tack in the box

but, you all knew this
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on October 15, 2020, 10:30:35 AM
Thank you to all who responded.  It was tough getting the call, even when you know it's going to come.  My dad lived a long life (almost 77 years) and a good life so that's something to be thankful for.  One of the things that got my dad was that his kidney's were already weak and once he got sick they pretty much shut down and they were not able to give him a full dose of the remdisivr anti-viral, he only got a half dose.  I'm not sure that it would have helped him any but who knows? 

Believe it or not I'm in the camp of open it up.  The truth of the matter is that is mostly affects the old and weak, of which my dad was both and he really did not take any precautions like he should unless he had to.  Mom had it and beat it and has had asthma and other lung problems for years.  She seems to be doing well so far.  I think we're probably already at war with China and we just don't know it yet (or maybe some do) and these are just the first casualties of that war.  

What we really need to be looking at is the younger and more healthier people who have died from it.  I would like to see some of the stats on how it affects them, what were their co-morbidities, if any and other factors.  I do not believe it is a large threat to younger, healthy people and even older healthy people.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on October 15, 2020, 01:21:20 PM
Have to fly to Mass and Ohio next week, so I have to get tested tomorrow, so I have current results to show the officials when I get off the plane in Boston, so I don't have to quarantine while I am there. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2020, 01:23:52 PM
good luck
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 15, 2020, 01:44:38 PM
Great post Gigem,lost a 62 yr old friend on August 16th.He had blood clots removed from his lungs in 'o8.He got pneumonia and had it for 2weeks before he bothered to take any meds,his son came back from Jersey and took him in to A local Hospital where he languished for about a week.The Doc told the family had he not tried to tough it out he may have made it.And until '08 he was in great shape,dropping trees,sectioning,splitting,cutting,loading and selling it.Never know - best wishes
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 15, 2020, 07:27:22 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 15, 2020, 08:03:23 AM
I think OAM is actually a roach that comes out from under stuff after the lights are turned off and we go to bed

Speaking of predictable, thats predictable
Or I just live in the Western Time Zone (half the time)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 15, 2020, 07:32:58 PM
So the HC of the #2 team gets Covid the week of the game vs the #3 team, and the response here is a shrug.  We're not having a valid football season here and everyone just wants to get back to normal so badly, that they're being reckless.  

But I'm wrong and a lady now (apparently, for some reason).  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2020, 07:42:33 PM
many folks have been infected, Saban just happens to be a coach

He could have easily contracted the virus if there was no football

I don't feel many folks think he will die.  I don't

I don't know that anyone is right or wrong
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 15, 2020, 07:54:13 PM
Comparing the 7-day MA from Oct 14 to the 7-day MA from Sep 30, again a 2-week split, we're now up to a 24.2% increase in new daily cases. 

The 7-day MA on daily deaths has stopped its decline/stagnation and gone very slightly positive over the last few days, but not by any amount that I'd be willing to call a trend at this time.

I don't know if it's due to behavior or weather that cases are turning upward so strongly. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 15, 2020, 08:39:49 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 15, 2020, 07:54:13 PM
Comparing the 7-day MA from Oct 14 to the 7-day MA from Sep 30, again a 2-week split, we're now up to a 24.2% increase in new daily cases.

The 7-day MA on daily deaths has stopped its decline/stagnation and gone very slightly positive over the last few days, but not by any amount that I'd be willing to call a trend at this time.

I don't know if it's due to behavior or weather that cases are turning upward so strongly.
could also be partially due to increased testing


the key is the hospitalizations and the deaths


its too early to know what will happen there

lets hope those two stats dont follow the same trend as positives

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on October 15, 2020, 10:13:09 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 15, 2020, 07:32:58 PM
So the HC of the #2 team gets Covid the week of the game vs the #3 team, and the response here is a shrug.  We're not having a valid football season here and everyone just wants to get back to normal so badly, that they're being reckless. 

But I'm wrong and a lady now (apparently, for some reason). 
Who is being reckless?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on October 15, 2020, 10:43:31 PM
We, the country, are stipulating tha this is a virus and short of going into a bunker, which few want to do, we are accepting of the fact that some will test positive. 

Are you suggesting all positive cases are an example of recklessness?

What does that even mean, a valid football season?  We are making the best of things and that, now, means not going into a hole imperpituity.  Just like a lot of other areas of life, we tolerate an amount of risk.    Risk of flu, car wrecks, covid, drowning, traumatic injury through competitive sports,  etc.  There are entire industries that practice risk mitigation every day, meaning we as a society accept levels of risk.  We're not going to shut down life over this based on what we know now..  Is this what you are advocating?  Life isn't 'normal anywhere that I can tell, even in all of these reckless locales you're so terrified about .

Is there an argument to suggest that CV is a relative lethal risk to a segment of the populace younger than....20...40....60?    Based on your read our H1N1 plans must have been a disaster, a crime against humanity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2020, 11:38:18 PM
40 million people on the earth have aids

we should be more careful
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 16, 2020, 12:26:07 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 15, 2020, 07:32:58 PM
So the HC of the #2 team gets Covid the week of the game vs the #3 team, and the response here is a shrug.  We're not having a valid football season here and everyone just wants to get back to normal so badly, that they're being reckless. 

But I'm wrong and a lady now (apparently, for some reason). 
Does Nick Saban seem like the type of person who is reckless about anything to you? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 16, 2020, 07:32:31 AM
LMAO. Like anything they say is credible.



The WHO study reviewed remdesivir and three other repurposed drugs: hydroxychloroquine, the HIV combination of lopinavir and ritonavir and interferon. None of them helped patients live any longer or get out of the hospital any sooner, WHO said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 16, 2020, 07:33:50 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 15, 2020, 07:32:58 PM
So the HC of the #2 team gets Covid the week of the game vs the #3 team, and the response here is a shrug.  We're not having a valid football season here and everyone just wants to get back to normal so badly, that they're being reckless. 

But I'm wrong and a lady now (apparently, for some reason). 
What would you do differently?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 16, 2020, 09:02:47 AM
I don't personally see much that government should be doing differently.  I can't see how enforcing a mask mandate is practicable.  I see police officers walking around with their mask pulled down around here often, and other folks with it down below their nose, or without one entirely in more crowded areas.  Our building is being really good with one older man who apparently refuses to wear one, and he also gets on elevators with 2-3 folks already present.

The wife said something to him and he ignored her completely.  Another person riding looked at her and raised her eyes.

I was just at Walmart, I go early to avoid any crowd, and folks there were doing pretty well.

SO, what else?  Ban large meetings?  Done.  Social distancing?  Mostly done.  Throw money at a vaccine and treatments?  Done.

The mortality rate appears to be falling now, though obviously we have some personal situations that show it is nowhere near negligible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 16, 2020, 09:26:41 AM
I just really want to know what others think we should be doing. Gigem gave his thoughts. CDawg has given thoughts. I've shared mine.

What is reckless about anything we are doing?

I think reckless would be to shut the country down. 

If we are going to see a shutdown, NOBODY gets paid except front liners, and nobody pays taxes to fund government and its employees. 

No school either. Not possible with a shutdown, and online learning has proven to be bad.

A shutdown is a shutdown, period.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 16, 2020, 09:28:45 AM
Not many want to provide details, it's easier to criticize and claim what we're doing is wrong obviously.

What was suggested is pretty much what is being done.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 16, 2020, 09:29:02 AM
Remdesivir proved to be the first useful tool we have in treating COVID-19 patients. Now, the US government wants to find out more about how it could be supercharged with other drugs.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/remdesivir-proved-to-be-the-first-useful-tool-we-have-in-treating-covid-19-patients-now-the-us-government-wants-to-find-out-more-about-how-it-could-be-supercharged-with-other-drugs/ar-BB1a5QcA?ocid=msedgntp
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 16, 2020, 09:32:32 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 16, 2020, 09:28:45 AM
Not many want to provide details, it's easier to criticize and claim what we're doing is wrong obviously.

What was suggested is pretty much what is being done.


THOUGHT OF THE DAY:

"Don't find fault. Find a remedy." - Henry Ford
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 16, 2020, 09:36:47 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 16, 2020, 09:26:41 AM
I just really want to know what others think we should be doing. Gigem gave his thoughts. CDawg has given thoughts. I've shared mine.

What is reckless about anything we are doing?

I think reckless would be to shut the country down.

If we are going to see a shutdown, NOBODY gets paid except front liners, and nobody pays taxes to fund government and its employees.

No school either. Not possible with a shutdown, and online learning has proven to be bad.

A shutdown is a shutdown, period.
Great Post - Lock the Thread
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 16, 2020, 09:38:04 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 16, 2020, 09:26:41 AM
I just really want to know what others think we should be doing. Gigem gave his thoughts. CDawg has given thoughts. I've shared mine.

What is reckless about anything we are doing?
football is not essential.  It should be shut down.

Schools & colleges and learning should all be done remotely as should any and all business that is not deemed essential.

this is the opinion of some.  The folks with this opinion are good folks that want an end to the suffering and deaths caused by the virus.

this can all be taken to extremes.  Perhaps some think meat packing and toilet paper manufacturing in non-essential.

Eat beans and rice, wipe your butt with a wash rag and reuse it.....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 16, 2020, 09:38:16 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 16, 2020, 09:32:32 AM
THOUGHT OF THE DAY:

"Don't find fault. Find a remedy." - Henry Ford
Agreed but as Henry aged he had some strange ideas
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 16, 2020, 09:38:32 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on October 16, 2020, 09:36:47 AM
Great Post - Lock the Thread
hah, I snuck a post in before LOCK
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 16, 2020, 09:39:06 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on October 16, 2020, 09:38:16 AM
Agreed but as Henry aged he had some strange ideas
our politicians are aging
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 16, 2020, 09:43:38 AM
Cool. A petition. 

But it's also a small snapshot of what this online learning nonsense is doing to our kids.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-cps-remote-schedules-20201014-kcgw4lyywrcodjlngg5cclijaa-story.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 16, 2020, 09:44:02 AM
I would shut down football IFF I saw evidence, or even logic, that suggested it was promoting infections versus the no football scenario.

We hear about infections in sports, and with politicians, but that isn't necessarily an indication they are getting it because of their positions.

Saban reportedly has no symptoms (yet) and it COULD be a false positive obviously.  He's awaiting retest results.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 16, 2020, 09:45:53 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 16, 2020, 09:38:04 AM
football is not essential.  It should be shut down.

Schools & colleges and learning should all be done remotely as should any and all business that is not deemed essential.

this is the opinion of some.  The folks with this opinion are good folks that want an end to the suffering and deaths caused by the virus.

this can all be taken to extremes.  Perhaps some think meat packing and toilet paper manufacturing in non-essential.

Eat beans and rice, wipe your butt with a wash rag and reuse it.....
Seems to me the players and coaches and parents think differently. If they all isolate properly, it's not a problem. That is totally on them. If they want to play, they need to be careful. End of story.

Same goes for any of us.

Is golf and stops in bars essential?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 16, 2020, 09:48:54 AM
Ed Zachery

I'm guessing, because I'm not a scientist or an "expert", but common sense tells me that having football means there are thousands of players, coaches, and staff that are being more careful and being tested on a daily or more regular basis than if football was cancelled.

My uneducated guess is that football, basketball, baseball, other sports with all the added precautions are helping slow the spread of the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 16, 2020, 09:49:59 AM
That would be my guess as well, we have folks being hyper-vigilant playing sports and doing other things.

One thing that has not happened apparently is widely spread infections of health care workers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 16, 2020, 09:54:45 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 16, 2020, 09:45:53 AM
Seems to me the players and coaches and parents think differently. If they all isolate properly, it's not a problem. That is totally on them. If they want to play, they need to be careful. End of story.

Same goes for any of us.

Is golf and stops in bars essential?
absolutely not!


in some folks opinion I'm a giant asshat.

the government should be restricting my opportunities to spread the virus since I'm too stupid or selfish to do it myself.

there are obviously two ways of thinking on this.  I don't feel one way is right and the other way is wrong.  But, many folks can't open their minds that far.  It's only right in their opinion and it's obviously WRONG if someone thinks differently.

similar to politics.  Therefore, a country divided.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 16, 2020, 09:57:11 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 16, 2020, 09:49:59 AM
That would be my guess as well, we have folks being hyper-vigilant playing sports and doing other things.

One thing that has not happened apparently is widely spread infections of health care workers.
because health care works are hyper-vigilant as well.
heck, perhaps someone should do a study or a survey or a poll.  Are people in sports and or health care being infected at a different rate than the general population?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 16, 2020, 09:58:48 AM
It's unfortunate that this Chinese attack has been politicized. 

Makes me wonder what would happen if another 9/11 occurred. Would we rally as a country like last time? Or, would we blame the government for not doing enough? 

We know the administration before GWB didn't do enough with Osama when it had the chance. Nobody bitched and moaned about that though. What has changed?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 16, 2020, 10:00:38 AM
the younger generations, millennials, snowflakes, participation trophies 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 16, 2020, 10:07:19 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 16, 2020, 09:49:59 AM
One thing that has not happened apparently is widely spread infections of health care workers.
Thankfully,i'm sure because mostly they have followed proper procedure/protocol.I'm sure based on people in health care I've spoken with some of it has been on inflated/inaccurate numbers with healthy and patients with weakened/compromised condintions
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 16, 2020, 01:14:35 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 16, 2020, 09:26:41 AM
I just really want to know what others think we should be doing. Gigem gave his thoughts. CDawg has given thoughts. I've shared mine.
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 16, 2020, 09:28:45 AM
Not many want to provide details, it's easier to criticize and claim what we're doing is wrong obviously.

What was suggested is pretty much what is being done.
And I've shared mine, which were largely that what we're doing is the right thing, but there is such inconsistent messaging about what we're doing and WHY that it's not being followed.

As CDawg mentioned, mask adherence to protocol is hit or miss, both in Atlanta and during his recent travels. 

As I mentioned when I shared mine, people are spending more time arguing over what we can or cannot do and spending a lot less time trying to educate on what you SHOULD do to remain safe and reduce the spread. 

And because we failed to educate as we came out of the second wave, the third wave is here. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 16, 2020, 01:37:59 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 16, 2020, 09:48:54 AM
Ed Zachery

I'm guessing, because I'm not a scientist or an "expert", but common sense tells me that having football means there are thousands of players, coaches, and staff that are being more careful and being tested on a daily or more regular basis than if football was cancelled.

My uneducated guess is that football, basketball, baseball, other sports with all the added precautions are helping slow the spread of the virus.
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 16, 2020, 09:49:59 AM
That would be my guess as well, we have folks being hyper-vigilant playing sports and doing other things.

One thing that has not happened apparently is widely spread infections of health care workers.
False choice. Not playing football/sports means that they don't have a large outside pressure to protect themselves; it does not mean that they will automatically become reckless. 

I'd venture to say that I have a MUCH lower chance of infection than any collegiate or professional athlete that is currently playing (except maybe NBA/NHL because they set up real bubbles). I WFH and generally social distance otherwise, my wife works in a very small office where they wear masks and she generally social distances otherwise. We rarely go out for non-essential reasons, and wear masks when we do. The kids (who we have 40% of the time) are required to wear masks at school. So far amongst three kids there are no known cases across either of the two schools. 

Now, you can claim that a collegiate athlete, if they weren't subject to that outside pressure, might be [like most college students] stupid about what precautions they take. I can't argue what COULD happen. But I argue that taking good precautions and not playing contact sports is less dangerous than taking good precautions and playing contact sports. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on October 16, 2020, 02:25:00 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on October 15, 2020, 10:13:09 PM
Who is being reckless?
anybody who is not staying home and going nowhere is being reckless:96:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 16, 2020, 02:40:56 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 16, 2020, 01:37:59 PM
Now, you can claim that a collegiate athlete, if they weren't subject to that outside pressure, might be [like most college students] stupid about what precautions they take. I can't argue what COULD happen. But I argue that taking good precautions and not playing contact sports is less dangerous than taking good precautions and playing contact sports.
like I said, I'm not an expert, but common sense tells me thousands of athletes are taking better precautions because of that outside pressure.

You argue whatever side you'd like.  human beings overall, not just this age group behave better with an outside pressure.  Get some scientific evidence. If psychology can be scientific. I don't have any.  Just my common sense.

the other common sense tells me that having these thousands of athletes being tested much more regularly and then having the outside force to quarantine themselves properly if/when they test positive is also better overall
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 16, 2020, 02:41:13 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 16, 2020, 09:58:48 AM
It's unfortunate that this Chinese attack has been politicized.

Makes me wonder what would happen if another 9/11 occurred. Would we rally as a country like last time? Or, would we blame the government for not doing enough?

We know the administration before GWB didn't do enough with Osama when it had the chance. Nobody bitched and moaned about that though. What has changed?
Probably the lack of evidence.
Your first sentence is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 16, 2020, 02:42:06 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 16, 2020, 09:48:54 AM
Ed Zachery

I'm guessing, because I'm not a scientist or an "expert", but common sense tells me that having football means there are thousands of players, coaches, and staff that are being more careful and being tested on a daily or more regular basis than if football was cancelled.

My uneducated guess is that football, basketball, baseball, other sports with all the added precautions are helping slow the spread of the virus.
The best part is that we'll have no clue how many fans go back home and get sick or die and spread it to others.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 16, 2020, 02:43:29 PM
well, we know how many fans the Big Ten is allowing

well, maybe not, they've said, Family members
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 16, 2020, 03:04:36 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 16, 2020, 02:40:56 PM
like I said, I'm not an expert, but common sense tells me thousands of athletes are taking better precautions because of that outside pressure.

You argue whatever side you'd like.  human beings overall, not just this age group behave better with an outside pressure.  Get some scientific evidence. If psychology can be scientific. I don't have any.  Just my common sense.

the other common sense tells me that having these thousands of athletes being tested much more regularly and then having the outside force to quarantine themselves properly if/when they test positive is also better overall
I'm actually inclined to agree, that these players will be more careful about what they do because they are trying to remain healthy to be on the field, that the regular testing will help to at least catch their mistakes more quickly than if they were not being tested [because many due to age will be asymptomatic], and that having access to the medical staff of the university will help them to handle symptoms if they need it. 

However I still think it's a flawed argument, and advanced by people who are looking to make excuses to play sports. They're acting as if the opposite to playing is that athletes will be forcibly dunked in a vat of active virus and the only defense against that is the watchful eye of coaches and trainers and the threat of letting their teammates down. When the actual alternative is that each player has the ability to control their own actions, and control their own risk. If the alternative is that players will act irresponsibly, that's on them. 

It's basically saying that players are unable or unwilling to control themselves if they don't have that support. And while it may be true in many cases [heck, even professional athletes with millions on the line screwed that up], that's saying that we have to let them play sports--which is what they want to do--in order to protect themselves from their own bad behavior. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 16, 2020, 03:39:46 PM
Italy is now spiking hard.  France is going ballistic, over 30,000 newly reported cases yesterday.  That would be like 150,000 new cases in the US per capita.  Sweden is drifting higher now as well.  

France is in a bad way.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Abba on October 16, 2020, 03:47:54 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 16, 2020, 03:04:36 PM
It's basically saying that players are unable or unwilling to control themselves if they don't have that support. And while it may be true in many cases [heck, even professional athletes with millions on the line screwed that up], that's saying that we have to let them play sports--which is what they want to do--in order to protect themselves from their own bad behavior.

Yes, this is 100% true.  I think these college age kids are less likely to control themselves than other age groups.  So it wouldn't be a shock that those playing sports would have lower numbers than those students who are not (but still on campus).  I'm not saying every player is Aaron Hernandez, but it seems like players are more likely to get in trouble in bye weeks and during the offseason than in the heat of the season.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 16, 2020, 03:50:29 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 16, 2020, 03:39:46 PM
Italy is now spiking hard.  France is going ballistic, over 30,000 newly reported cases yesterday.  That would be like 150,000 new cases in the US per capita.  Sweden is drifting higher now as well. 

France is in a bad way.


Even Germany that was managing quite well, is seeing large increases, with a peak yesterday higher than ANY single-day case total they saw in the first wave back in Feb/March.

Same pattern playing out across pretty much all of the large European countries.  

Have they become more lax?  Do the European summer holidays in July/August account for all of it?  Or is something else at play?

At least the death totals are a small fraction of what they were during the first wave.  Seems like healthcare workers have better processes and treatments in place now, than they did 8 months ago.  It's also possible the virus has mutated to become less lethal, as viruses often do.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 16, 2020, 03:52:11 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 16, 2020, 03:04:36 PM
I'm actually inclined to agree, 

However I still think it's a flawed argument,

It's basically saying that players are unable or unwilling to control themselves if they don't have that support. And while it may be true in many cases [heck, even professional athletes with millions on the line screwed that up], that's saying that we have to let them play sports--which is what they want to do--in order to protect themselves from their own bad behavior.
so you agree, because of common sense

flawed argument - fine, but common sense says it's true

unwilling, not unable.  We can be almost certain that high percentages of the general population or any other group, even a certain low percentage of health care workers are unwilling to control themselves.

yes, that's exactly what I'm saying.... we should allow them to play sports in order to protect themselves and everyone that comes in contact with them.

So, we agree.  I knew it all along.  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 16, 2020, 04:08:55 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 16, 2020, 03:50:29 PM
Even Germany that was managing quite well, is seeing large increases, with a peak yesterday higher than ANY single-day case total they saw in the first wave back in Feb/March.

Same pattern playing out across pretty much all of the large European countries. 

Have they become more lax?  Do the European summer holidays in July/August account for all of it?  Or is something else at play?

At least the death totals are a small fraction of what they were during the first wave.  Seems like healthcare workers have better processes and treatments in place now, than they did 8 months ago.  It's also possible the virus has mutated to become less lethal, as viruses often do.



yes but there is a 2 to 3 week lag time between new positives and deaths from them so we just have to hope for the best
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 16, 2020, 04:26:45 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 16, 2020, 04:08:55 PM
yes but there is a 2 to 3 week lag time between new positives and deaths from them so we just have to hope for the best
Even adjusting for the lag time, the death totals are MUCH lower than during the first wave.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 16, 2020, 04:45:29 PM
Quote from: Abba on October 16, 2020, 03:47:54 PM
Yes, this is 100% true.  I think these college age kids are less likely to control themselves than other age groups.  So it wouldn't be a shock that those playing sports would have lower numbers than those students who are not (but still on campus).  I'm not saying every player is Aaron Hernandez, but it seems like players are more likely to get in trouble in bye weeks and during the offseason than in the heat of the season.
Quote from: FearlessF on October 16, 2020, 03:52:11 PM
so you agree, because of common sense

flawed argument - fine, but common sense says it's true

unwilling, not unable.  We can be almost certain that high percentages of the general population or any other group, even a certain low percentage of health care workers are unwilling to control themselves.

yes, that's exactly what I'm saying.... we should allow them to play sports in order to protect themselves and everyone that comes in contact with them.

So, we agree.  I knew it all along.  :)
I think all sports should just keep athletes in a bubble every year. We just can't trust them. :57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 16, 2020, 04:46:03 PM
Nebraska is reinstating some restrictions to help slow the spread of COVID-19 in the state.

Gov. Pete Ricketts announced those restrictions along with a new campaign to help slow the spread during a news conference Friday afternoon.

The state has relied on DHM's, or Directed Health Measures, to reopen the state by county after spring restrictions with all counties being in "Phase 4."

Gov. Ricketts said these changes in the DHMs come as hospitalization rates rise in the state. Currently, Nebraska is seeing 40% more hospitalization than the state's peak in cases back in May.


As of Friday, there are 323 people hospitalized statewide with COVID-19 with 30% of beds, 29% of ICU beds and 70% of ventilators still available across the state.

Effective Wednesday, October 21st, the following changes will be made to the Phase 4 DHMs.

Indoor gatherings will be reduced. Current limits state indoor gatherings need to be at 75% capacity. Beginning Wednesday, indoor gatherings will be reduced to 50% capacity, the same as Phase 3 of the DHMs.
Bars and restaurants are also moving to 50% capacity and limit table size to 8 people.
For hospitals to perform elective surgeries, they must maintain 10% of staffed hospital and ICU beds in order to handle COVID-19 patients. Hospitals are also not allowed to transfer patients out to stay within that 10% cushion for elective surgeries.
New limits will also be placed on weddings and funeral sizes.


NEW STATEWIDE CAMPAIGN
The state is also launching a new statewide campaign to help slow the spread of COVID-19 in the winter months. The new campaign will focus on the Three C's: Crowded Places, Confined Spaces, Close Contact

"As we look at the contact tracing data," Ricketts said, "we see that a lot of the spread is coming from informal gatherings.

The state of Nebraska has seen two record-breaking days this week for new positive cases, with over 3,000 new positive cases added between Oct. 11th and Oct. 15th.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 16, 2020, 05:15:42 PM
Sabah tested negative, he needs two more negs to coach.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 16, 2020, 05:25:36 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 16, 2020, 05:15:42 PM
Sabah tested negative, he needs two more negs to coach.
did you mean Saban

You have a hard time finding the N its right next to the M
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 16, 2020, 05:43:52 PM
My dad gets the "N" correct, but puts a "T" in the middle rather than a "B"

I don't think he likes the man very much.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 16, 2020, 05:47:39 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 16, 2020, 05:43:52 PM
My dad gets the "N" correct, but puts a "T" in the middle rather than a "B"

I don't think he likes the man very much.

Please... If it's Satan vs Saban, I'm taking Saban and laying 7.5 point odds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 16, 2020, 05:50:44 PM
Im only kidding with Cincy cause yesterday he typed MC instead of NC which was North Carolina

I was trying to figure out what state or city MC was
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 16, 2020, 05:52:38 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 16, 2020, 05:43:52 PM
My dad gets the "N" correct, but puts a "T" in the middle rather than a "B"

I don't think he likes the man very much.

I actually have a lot of respect for Saban

wish the Horns had him

we'd have to strike oil to get him
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 16, 2020, 05:57:57 PM
Opponents dislike winners.  Ohio State fans thought Urban Meyer was Satan until ...

Vince Dooley played QB at Auburn.  Pat Dye played football at UGA.  

Find a winner and a lot of initial warts disappear.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 16, 2020, 10:42:35 PM
Moderna appears on track for a data readout to complete Phase 3 testing in November

https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/health-canada-to-fast-track-review-of-modernas-covid-19-vaccine-2020-10-16?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts&tesla=y
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 17, 2020, 08:08:41 AM
Record numbers of new cases in Illinois and Wisconsin. 5.1% positive in Illinois. No data on how many tests were done in Wisconsin.

Anyway, I guess summer is over.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 17, 2020, 08:19:46 AM
"Leaving for Indiana" struck me on this one.


https://www.chicagotribune.com/columns/john-kass/ct-coronavirus-illinois-youth-sports-kass-20201017-nwxvn7fct5dyllua5ux3whjv54-story.html

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 17, 2020, 09:11:44 AM
I don't think the weather has changed enough to be a factor, if anything, folks are outside more now than in August one would surmise.

I'm back to "area under the curve" notion again, partially anyway.  France is in serious trouble and there is little government can really do.  The imposed a curfew 9 PM to 5 AM which might do a little, but the thing is out of control there.  Will they shut everything down again?  I don't think so, I think they will have to muddle along with selective closures and repeated admonitions.  They could swamp their hospitals soon.  

The wife says this surge is because of vacationers in August and younger folks partying, which is plausible I suppose.  

Sweden is rising as well, which tends to give lie to the herd immunity notion.  They are reporting 800 or so new cases per day (France is 30,000 on 6.5x population base).  

Something has changed, and I am not clear what it could be really other than behaviors.  School?  People going back to the office?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 17, 2020, 09:22:51 AM
asymptomatic kids in school could be a part of it

germ spreading little booger eaters
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 17, 2020, 09:27:49 AM
Australia’s Victoria state has reported just one new case of COVID-19 and no deaths as the city of Melbourne moves closer towards the easing of some lifestyle restrictions.

The state’s coronavirus death toll remains at 816 and the Australian total is 904.

Melbourne residents are expecting COVID-19 restrictions to be eased on Sunday but it is unclear how much freedom will be regained.

Victoria Premier Daniel Andrews has indicated the changes would be more “in the social space,” prompting pleas from business operators for relief from restrictions that once included an overnight curfew.


Current restrictions include a two-hour exercise limit within 5 kilometers (3 miles) of work or home and mandatory face masks covering the mouth and nose when a person leaves their home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 17, 2020, 09:32:53 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 16, 2020, 05:57:57 PM
Opponents dislike winners.  Ohio State fans thought Urban Meyer was Satan until ...

Vince Dooley played QB at Auburn.  Pat Dye played football at UGA. 

Find a winner and a lot of initial warts disappear.


Darrell K Royal was an All-American at OU before coaching Texas to three NCs.  I guess I can accept his roots....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 17, 2020, 10:05:04 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 17, 2020, 09:22:51 AM
asymptomatic kids in school could be a part of it

germ spreading little booger eaters
Possibly, they started back to school first of September.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 17, 2020, 11:43:34 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 17, 2020, 09:11:44 AM
I don't think the weather has changed enough to be a factor, if anything, folks are outside more now than in August one would surmise.

I'm back to "area under the curve" notion again, partially anyway.  France is in serious trouble and there is little government can really do.  The imposed a curfew 9 PM to 5 AM which might do a little, but the thing is out of control there.  Will they shut everything down again?  I don't think so, I think they will have to muddle along with selective closures and repeated admonitions.  They could swamp their hospitals soon. 

The wife says this surge is because of vacationers in August and younger folks partying, which is plausible I suppose. 

Sweden is rising as well, which tends to give lie to the herd immunity notion.  They are reporting 800 or so new cases per day (France is 30,000 on 6.5x population base). 

Something has changed, and I am not clear what it could be really other than behaviors.  School?  People going back to the office? 
Nobody is outside when it's 50 and rainy. That's October in the Midwest these days. It sucks. People are stuck inside now until April at the earliest. The uptick is not surprising at all to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 17, 2020, 11:56:16 AM
It's been an awesome autumn,last night was the 1st time it dipped into the 30s.Been high 50s/60s/70s Sept-Oct 😎 about 1 day a week getting showers but seasonal temps make it cold when it happens
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 17, 2020, 11:57:08 AM
In Cincy, the weather in October is usually spectacular.  Maybe further north it already gets nasty.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 17, 2020, 12:00:35 PM
we havent seen any cold weather this fall yet course this is Texas so what do you expect

golfers and fishermen love it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 17, 2020, 12:30:28 PM
It almost never gets really cold here. It's coldest at night when almost everyone is sleeping.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 17, 2020, 02:42:25 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 17, 2020, 08:08:41 AM
Record numbers of new cases in Illinois and Wisconsin. 5.1% positive in Illinois. No data on how many tests were done in Wisconsin.

Anyway, I guess summer is over.
I hope the smart people citing the seasonal weather changes are also smart enough to study the entire southern hemisphere for predictive statistics.  I doubt they are, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 17, 2020, 02:43:28 PM
Well, there's Brazil we can study.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 17, 2020, 05:33:24 PM
I don’t think weather has been a factor
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 17, 2020, 05:57:31 PM
Gators HC Dan Mullen has the covid.  He's relatively young for a HC, but with Saban and now him, I guess we're playing Russian roulette with how many HCs get it before one is hospitalized or dies.


Fun stuff.  But the athletic depts and networks gotta get that money, don't they!?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 17, 2020, 06:18:47 PM
Saban was a false positive, clearly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 17, 2020, 07:47:06 PM
Imagine a world with quality testing...a world that believed in science instead of ignoring it...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 17, 2020, 07:49:04 PM
These tests are not going to be perfect, duh, no matter who is President.

Did anyone here say weather was a factor?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 17, 2020, 08:06:49 PM
Stop egging him on
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on October 17, 2020, 08:53:36 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 17, 2020, 05:57:31 PM
Gators HC Dan Mullen has the covid.  He's relatively young for a HC, but with Saban and now him, I guess we're playing Russian roulette with how many HCs get it before one is hospitalized or dies.


Fun stuff.  But the athletic depts and networks gotta get that money, don't they!?
I know. I was sickened when I saw Saban and Mullen in their hostage tapes with blindfolds on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 17, 2020, 09:06:11 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on October 17, 2020, 08:53:36 PM
I know. I was sickened when I saw Saban and Mullen in their hostage tapes with blindfolds on.
Next to 90,000 other geniuses.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 17, 2020, 09:27:09 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 17, 2020, 07:47:06 PM
Imagine a world with quality testing...a world that believed in science instead of ignoring it...
Which of the dozens or so versions of science should we follow oh great liberal and insulter of those with faith?

the one that is allowing the current vagina marches in DC and New York, despite those being places where large gatherings are not allowed? And those ladies are arm in arm and much greater in number and much closer together than at any of these football games.

Or the science of the protesters, rioters and looters- which was widely encouraged by your tribe?


Or the science of our nations highest ranking liberal who clearly does not wear a mask when she thinks nobody is lokking?

Or our extremely radical democratic vice presidential candidate who would not attend confirmation hearings for fear of getting the virus but was seen repeatedly getting into an elevator with 18 to 20 people not wearing a mask including her- that same day?

Or our lecturing liberal media like Fredo, who have been busted on numerous occasions breaking the very rules of “ science “ they bark at everyone else?

Or could it just be that that whole thing I describe, which is evident in bunches every single day, proves that hypocrisy of your tribe, and prove that your message is whatever is convenient at the moment?

Talk about confusing the public holy shit the media are killing us. And that’s why you have no credibility when you post your bullshit here. I keep waiting for you to be banned because you were absolutely ruining this forum and people are sick of you. Do us all favor and either stick to football or get the fuck out of here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on October 17, 2020, 09:35:51 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 17, 2020, 09:06:11 PM
Next to 90,000 other geniuses.
Some people don’t just want to survive Covid.  They want to live through it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 17, 2020, 09:56:34 PM
It is a mark of modern technology that we have ANY tests for such a new virus.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 17, 2020, 10:58:28 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on October 17, 2020, 08:06:49 PM
Stop egging him on
Shh! The egg lobby can hear you!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 12:44:43 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 17, 2020, 09:27:09 PM
Which of the dozens or so versions of science should we follow oh great liberal and insulter of those with faith?

 I keep waiting for you to be banned because you were absolutely ruining this forum and people are sick of you. Do us all favor and either stick to football or get the fuck out of here.

a - Faith doesn't need to be insulted, merely defined....'belief without evidence' is better than any insult could be.
b - I'm not sure what I've done to be banned, but you might have, just now.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 18, 2020, 12:52:54 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 12:44:43 AM
a - Faith doesn't need to be insulted, merely defined....'belief without evidence' is better than any insult could be.
b - I'm not sure what I've done to be banned, but you might have, just now. 
For constantly bringing up your ignorant politics.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 01:15:55 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 18, 2020, 12:52:54 AM
For constantly bringing up your ignorant politics. 
Are you bitchy because President Turd is going to get Dukakissed?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 18, 2020, 02:01:58 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 01:15:55 AM
Are you bitchy because President Turd is going to get Dukakissed?
Nah, I am bitchy because people like you are a stain on this world, and I visit this forum to escape that.   Stop being a stain.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 06:37:27 AM
My suggestion is to stick to the topic at hand and avoid politics.  

A lot of Europe is problematic now, France especially, but Italy is running up the score now as well.  Brazil and India are apparently bad.

Only North Korea has shown absolute control over this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 18, 2020, 07:36:39 AM
Nobody goes to/from North Korea. Heh.

And yes, it is a marvel that we had testing for this thing so early.

And yes, no politics in this thread.

There is one here for that, which will be dead in 4 days. Until then, have at it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 18, 2020, 08:36:43 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 17, 2020, 07:49:04 PM
Did anyone here say weather was a factor?
It was discussed very early on, and at that time, Dr. Fauci said weather will be a factor, and he still thinks it will. The spikes in the Midwest are happening as people have to be inside more. Hopefully, everyone is diligent for the Holiday season coming up.

We're not going anywhere. Probably spend TG with friends here who are as careful as we are. Been here for almost 4 weeks now and still haven't seen them. We are getting together next weekend at my house (it's not quite home yet).

Isolating is tough. It's definitely taking a toll on me. Anxiety is something I've never felt before. I imagine I'm not alone with this problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 08:37:30 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/lMdriFZ.png)

So, the initial increase in March is easy to understanding, followed by the plateau, which also is easy to understand.  States started reopening in late April, slowly, to the increase in mid-June can be ascribed to that, but then mid-July something interesting happens, a decrease of fairly significantly proportions, and now from mid-September another increase.

Europe per capita is doing even worse now.  I know for some it's politically attractive to blame our situation on the current folks in charge, but then how does one explain Europe?  It's not as if Macron is somehow doing better, France is doing worse, and it's getting very bad there.  Even Sweden is seeing an increase.

The good news is deaths are down across the board as "we" learn how best to treat serious cases apparently.  My state is roughly stable now around 1200 new cases per day.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 08:38:43 AM
Obviously, we took a three night driving trip last week.  So far, so good.  The hospitality industry is really getting hammered obviously.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 18, 2020, 08:41:43 AM
Florida had 4000 new cases Friday, with 77K tests done. A little over 5% positive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 18, 2020, 08:47:32 AM
I'm not too worried about hotel rooms

I suppose two people that had the virus that didn't checkout until 11am, then I checked into the same room around 4 or 5pm, it could be a problem.

I would hope with so many empty rooms, the management would be smart enough to rotate rooms over multiple days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 08:50:29 AM
They claim to be taking extra precautions, but I am not as worried about dermal contact now with a surface.

I'm pretty sure most contagion is from oral spewing.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 18, 2020, 09:28:21 AM
yes, small poorly ventilated rooms, but should be ok after 24-48 hours 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 18, 2020, 09:32:46 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 01:15:55 AM
Are you bitchy because President Turd is going to get Dukakissed?
Absolutely fetching,perhaps you could treat the congregation to the coup de gras "I'm rubber you're glue."Any other engaging gems wafting thru that methane cloud of a mind?I thought the most ignorant/assinine thing I'd ever read on the web was you suggesting back in July that Advocates for the unborn were only doing it so they could manipulate them later for their own selfish whims .Congratulations you've dug yourself deeper into the abyss than I even thought possible.I think I've figured it out you are one of the Knights who say Ni
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 09:52:05 AM
If the US has handled this badly, and perhaps that is the case though most are silent when asked what we should do NOW, what about Europe?

I didn't really see suggestions for what we should do NOW here in the US beyond what we pretty much are already doing aside from a mask mandate (which is probably not practicable in my view).

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 18, 2020, 09:59:53 AM
I just think we all need to be careful. I like that the stores all have mask requirements here. No need for a mandate. 

Most people do not like to be told what to do. Most people wear masks because we choose to. Much different.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 10:04:37 AM
Yeah, I wear a mask when I'm likely to be near strangers, not when we're out walking and no one is within 1,000 feet.  How would the police enforce such a mandate?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on October 18, 2020, 10:07:52 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 01:15:55 AM
Are you bitchy because President Turd is going to get Dukakissed?
Trump is getting into a tank?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 18, 2020, 10:42:11 AM
Does anything about the demographic mix of cases explain the lower mortality? If cases are rising disproportionately amongst the young and healthy it would reflect in lower death rates even absent any changes in available treatments. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 18, 2020, 10:43:19 AM
Wisconsin gives ages, and yeah, the numbers for people below 40 make up most of the new cases. It's the kiddies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 10:44:37 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 18, 2020, 10:42:11 AM
Does anything about the demographic mix of cases explain the lower mortality? If cases are rising disproportionately amongst the young and healthy it would reflect in lower death rates even absent any changes in available treatments.
I think this is a large factor, but outcomes are also improving for patients hospitalized.  Dexamethasone appears to be effective for example.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 18, 2020, 12:03:06 PM
This is the kind of stuff we need to be worried about. Drug and booze abuse too. This stuff is real.


https://www.kenoshanews.com/news/state-and-regional/suicides-up-in-dane-county-mental-health-experts-see-link-to-covid-19/article_b96dbef5-8ac7-5fd1-b143-ef408cacc250.html


https://www.therecoveryvillage.com/drug-addiction/news/drug-alcohol-use-rising-during-covid/



So, what should we be doing differently?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 18, 2020, 12:42:10 PM
I haven't done anything differently

I stay away from the drugs and my booze abuse is the same as the past 5 years
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 18, 2020, 02:21:23 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 18, 2020, 12:03:06 PM
This is the kind of stuff we need to be worried about. Drug and booze abuse too. This stuff is real.

https://www.kenoshanews.com/news/state-and-regional/suicides-up-in-dane-county-mental-health-experts-see-link-to-covid-19/article_b96dbef5-8ac7-5fd1-b143-ef408cacc250.html

https://www.therecoveryvillage.com/drug-addiction/news/drug-alcohol-use-rising-during-covid/

So, what should we be doing differently?
It's hard. I don't really have any reason to be having difficulty with all this. I'm not out of work; nor is my wife. I'm already a misanthrope, so not seeing people should be ideal for me. But even so, it's been rough on my mental health. I think it's that unlike usual, I have very few events or other things to "look forward to."

Usually we have events, trips, and other things all planned months out in advance so there's always something around the corner. Even most years I'm looking forward to Purdue sports [as depressing as they usually are!], but for a while I thought that was gone. 

I was definitely not doing well, probably drinking too much, and generally being a sloth because even having the puppy around he took a long time to figure out how to go for walks. I feel like I'm finally starting to get out of that funk, with the puppy now wanting [demanding] a walk every morning and having gotten back into golf so I have a goal--to get my swing back and to get out on the course often. 

But as for the question of "what should we be doing differently", I don't have an answer. I'm not changing my behavior and avoiding events/trips because "someone" is telling me not to do those things or that I can't do those things. I'm changing my behavior because with this pandemic, changing my behavior is prudent and smart. 

Orange County is on the cusp of going to the next tier of reopening, but I'm not going to go out and do things I shouldn't be doing just because it becomes legal. 

That's what I don't think people get about the mental health issues. For some people, they would avoid mental health problems by behavior that could risk their physical health, and those who are being careful about COVID will be experiencing the mental side of it regardless of whether things are open or not. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 03:24:28 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on October 18, 2020, 09:32:46 AM
Absolutely fetching,perhaps you could treat the congregation to the coup de gras "I'm rubber you're glue."Any other engaging gems wafting thru that methane cloud of a mind?I thought the most ignorant/assinine thing I'd ever read on the web was you suggesting back in July that Advocates for the unborn were only doing it so they could manipulate them later for their own selfish whims .
Actually, I believe I said it's so they can ignore the inevitable assistance services and programs they'll need by cutting them back and thus having a larger poor class to rule over.  But maybe it's just semantics.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 03:27:36 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 06:37:27 AM
My suggestion is to stick to the topic at hand and avoid politics. 
Stick to the topic of beating the virus without mentioning politics, 2 weeks before a presidential election, in which the incumbent has virtually ignored the virus?


Mmmmkay.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 03:29:07 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 18, 2020, 08:47:32 AM

I would hope with so many empty rooms, the management would be smart enough to rotate rooms over multiple days.
I sincerely doubt it.  They do what's easiest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 03:29:42 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 08:50:29 AM
I'm pretty sure most contagion is from oral spewing.


Shit, now we have to stop spewing orally?!?  From my cold, dead mouth.....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 18, 2020, 03:36:31 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 03:24:28 PM
Actually, I believe I said it's so they can ignore the inevitable assistance services and programs they'll need by cutting them back and thus having a larger poor class to rule over.  But maybe it's just semantics.
what programs have been cut back
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on October 18, 2020, 04:01:18 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 03:29:42 PM
Shit, now we have to stop spewing orally?!?  From my cold, dead mouth.....
Could be worse. At least it’s not anal spewage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 18, 2020, 04:31:09 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 03:24:28 PM
Actually, I believe I said it's so they can ignore the inevitable assistance services and programs they'll need by cutting them back and thus having a larger poor class to rule over.  But maybe it's just semantics.
 Maybe because it's seagulls have come out the otherside of jet engines making more sense.A pathetic mentality is still pathetic regardless of how you try to justify it.It is impossible to "refute" your pre-conceived notions because of its faulty,deranged premise
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 05:01:00 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on October 18, 2020, 04:31:09 PM
Maybe because it's seagulls have come out the otherside of jet engines making more sense.A pathetic mentality is still pathetic regardless of how you try to justify it.It is impossible to "refute" your pre-conceived notions because of its faulty,deranged premise
'Scuse me if you disagree.
I know that the party I'm criticizing is your party, but it doesn't make the content deranged.  

One party wants to end a woman's choice to have an abortion.
It's not my fault that the same party wants fewer social assistance programs for those in need (ie - those who birth unwanted/unplanned/impoverished children).

Yes, I see that you find those two truths to be inconvenient and make that particular party seem monstrous, but it's quite plain to see.  Your party wants one thing and wants to limit the other and fails to see that they're obviously intertwined.  

I suppose I'd be bitchy if my tribe wanted something like higher speed limits AND to remove airbags from cars.  Talk about deranged.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 05:11:11 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 18, 2020, 03:36:31 PM
what programs have been cut back
To be fair to me, my statement was predictive, so asking for what's been cut back is nonsensical.  

But in good faith and answering what you mean, just research Trump's proposed budgets for your answer.  Restrict assistance eligibility and slash the budget for it.  Pretty ho-hum and direct.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 05:25:23 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 03:27:36 PM
Stick to the topic of beating the virus without mentioning politics, 2 weeks before a presidential election, in which the incumbent has virtually ignored the virus?
I think it very possible to discuss what we see and think about COVID spread  without trying to use it as a political hammer.

As I say, Europe now is in bad shape as well, worse than the US per capita in terms of new cases, so it could be this would have been bad even with perfect leadership on this side of the ocean.  But I realize some are so consumed with using political hammers, or trying to, they can't pass up any opportunity.

What would perfect policy have comprised, I keep asking, what would it be today?

I don't know.  I hesitate to criticize without offer specifics as to how I think it should have been done differently, and I try and avoid the usual political talking points.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 05:31:04 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 05:25:23 PM
I think it very possible to discuss what we see and think about COVID spread  without trying to use it as a political hammer.
I suggest politics is intertwined in the discussion, and you use the phrase "political hammer."  Is good-faith honesty just forbidden on this board?!???


I'll make the RADICAL, overtly POLITICAL leap and suggest that cautious, responsible leadership from the president FROM THE START would have saved tens of thousands of lives.

Radical me.  Liberal me.  How dare I.  How dare I make such a banal, obvious statement.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 18, 2020, 05:42:16 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 05:31:04 PM
I suggest politics is intertwined in the discussion, and you use the phrase "political hammer."  Is good-faith honesty just forbidden on this board?!???


I'll make the RADICAL, overtly POLITICAL leap and suggest that cautious, responsible leadership from the president FROM THE START would have saved tens of thousands of lives.

Radical me.  Liberal me.  How dare I.  How dare I make such a banal, obvious statement.
what actions should Trump have taken that would have improved the situation

what would you have done differently
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on October 18, 2020, 05:48:42 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 18, 2020, 05:42:16 PM
what actions should Trump have taken that would have improved the situation

what would you have done differently
you can't reason with a moron.

Literally the ONLY way this thing would've been eradicated was if travel bans to China and Europe were instituted a couple months earlier than they were and if the US was on extreme forced lockdowns and martial law for like 8 weeks straight. And that's like so extreme no one is allowed to leave the house at all for no reason whatsoever.

Neither of those things were obviously going to happen no matter who was president. This is a country with 50 independent states with their own governors and state legislatures & courts and local govt's. The President isn't an emperor or a dictator. He doesn't have the kind of powers OAM apparently wishes a President should have. Thank god for that that a President doesn't have those sort of powers by the way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 05:55:27 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 05:31:04 PM
I'll make the RADICAL, overtly POLITICAL leap and suggest that cautious, responsible leadership from the president FROM THE START would have saved tens of thousands of lives.
How would "responsible leadership" have acted differently?  Be specific, not just generalizations like "they would not have hidden or downplayed the threat".

Do they have such responsible leadership in Italy, Spain, Belgium, France, the UK?

And in Sweden, do they have it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 18, 2020, 05:57:36 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 05:01:00 PM
'Scuse me if you disagree.
I know that the party I'm criticizing is your party, but it doesn't make the content deranged. 

One party wants to end a woman's choice to have an abortion.
It's not my fault that the same party wants fewer social assistance programs for those in need (ie - those who birth unwanted/unplanned/impoverished children).

Yes, I see that you find those two truths to be inconvenient and make that particular party seem monstrous, but it's quite plain to see.  Your party wants one thing and wants to limit the other and fails to see that they're obviously intertwined. 

I suppose I'd be bitchy if my tribe wanted something like higher speed limits AND to remove airbags from cars.  Talk about deranged. 
You helpless hound wouldn't recognize the truth if it blew up in your face and circled around and bit you in your ample backside.You've lampooned anyone who mentions hope or faith like it is an alien concept because your totally bereft of either

  I don't give a shit about politics it's your bent twisted narrative and your seething grievance with everyone about anything.You're angry for being born.It's a good thing you live out where the buses don't run or you may influence the innocent or get curbstomped by the vindictive.You turn assinine assumptions into astute observations with perfect regularity.Just take your glowing insight,Ouija Board and pitch your carnival tent elswhere,i promise we will weep,wail,pound our chests and rue the day in your absence

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 18, 2020, 05:58:52 PM
no political system or political leader worldwide has been able to defeat the virus, except for a couple exceptions.  no not Sweden.  Perhaps Australia, an island nation.

washing hands, social distancing, wearing masks, hoarding toilet paper, and other attempts haven't defeated the virus

the doctors and scientists haven't offered better options, worldwide

I feel recent spikes around the globe are caused by asymptomatic children and young people going back to class and the masses just being tired of staying home after 7 months and venturing out more.

Heck, Cincy even took a short driving trip to NC.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 18, 2020, 06:02:02 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on October 18, 2020, 05:48:42 PM
you can't reason with a moron.

Literally the ONLY way this thing would've been eradicated was if travel bans to China and Europe were instituted a couple months earlier than they were and if the US was on extreme forced lockdowns and martial law for like 8 weeks straight. And that's like so extreme no one is allowed to leave the house at all for no reason whatsoever.

Neither of those things were obviously going to happen no matter who was president. This is a country with 50 independent states with their own governors and state legislatures & courts and local govt's. The President isn't an emperor or a dictator. He doesn't have the kind of powers OAM apparently wishes a President should have. Thank god for that that a President doesn't have those sort of powers by the way.
Bingo!   Add to that “ science that tells you one week to wear a mask, and the next week not to. Add to that the political motivations of killing the economy for political gain, and a MSM that wants nothing more than to leverage the pandemic for political outcomes. Add to that the hypocrisy of the party not in the Oval Office and the MSM to encourage at most, or ignore at least, massive demonstrations during the pandemic that obviously contributed to the spread. Add to that the complete mismanagement of patients being moved into nursing homes with COVID, which directly led to thousands of avoidable deaths, and is widely ignored by the MSM.

it is clear this is all political.   We have over 7.5 Million people who have contracted this disease, and survived. And there are estimates that number may be exponentially higher.   When I see the vocal Dems not wearing masks when they are off camera ( or think they are)
and what the MSM covers and doesn’t cover, the credibility off all of this goes right out the window.  I don’t believe much of what any of them has to say.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 06:02:06 PM
Germany has done pretty well to date.  They do have a PhD chemist in charge.  The wife attributes this to the fact they are Germans, which is not a good thing in her mind.

Islands and countries with a social propensity for mask wearing have done pretty well relatively speaking.  The island aspect is obvious, but even Hawaii is struggling to control it with rather draconian steps that have hammered their primary economic engine.

Brazil and India have bad numbers and the real numbers are probably far worse.  The worst and largest slums I've ever seen were in Rio.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 06:03:47 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 18, 2020, 06:02:02 PM
Bingo!  Add to that “ science that tells you one week to wear a mask, and the next week not to. 
This isn't exactly true, or really true at all.  SOME "scientists" have argued that mask wearing is not helpful.  They are a minority.

They could be right, I doubt it, but it's possible.  "Science" itself doesn't ever say anything obviously.  Scientists disagree, it's why science is interesting and where science happens.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 18, 2020, 06:07:01 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 18, 2020, 05:58:52 PM
no political system or political leader worldwide has been able to defeat the virus, except for a couple exceptions.  no not Sweden.  Perhaps Australia, an island nation.

washing hands, social distancing, wearing masks, hoarding toilet paper, and other attempts haven't defeated the virus

the doctors and scientists haven't offered better options, worldwide

I feel recent spikes around the globe are caused by asymptomatic children and young people going back to class and the masses just being tired of staying home after 7 months and venturing out more.

Heck, Cincy even took a short driving trip to NC.
as has been pointed out if the recent spike in positives is from school startup then there shouldnt be s similar spike in hospitalizations and deaths in the weeks to come hopefully
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 18, 2020, 06:07:21 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 05:11:11 PM
To be fair to me, my statement was predictive, so asking for what's been cut back is nonsensical. 
Ha someone asked you to back you play,show your work and you pull that blithering beauty out of the nether regions.One needs a bucket when reading you posts
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 18, 2020, 06:16:55 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 06:03:47 PM
This isn't exactly true, or really true at all.  SOME "scientists" have argued that mask wearing is not helpful.  They are a minority.

They could be right, I doubt it, but it's possible.  "Science" itself doesn't ever say anything obviously.  Scientists disagree, it's why science is interesting and where science happens.
Do I need to pull out the Fauci videos to prove this?  He himself did this


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6pEcgDmEUk



And what Science decided that it was ok to keep liquor stores and marijuana dispensaries open, but not churches?   That the point.   Governors hiding behind “science” .   Too funny.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 18, 2020, 06:18:56 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 18, 2020, 06:02:02 PM


it is clear this is all political.  We have over 7.5 Million people who have contracted this disease, and survived. And there are estimates that number may be exponentially higher.  When I see the vocal Dems not wearing masks when they are off camera ( or think they are)
and what the MSM covers and doesn’t cover, the credibility off all of this goes right out the window.  I don’t believe much of what any of them has to say.
is it clear that the virus and attempts to defeat it are all political in most other countries worldwide?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 18, 2020, 06:22:30 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 18, 2020, 06:18:56 PM
is it clear that the virus and attempts to defeat it are all political in most other countries worldwide?
No.  It is clear that the likes of OAF, the liberal mouthpieces and the MSM in this country are politically motivated in what they are saying and how the cast blame.   Very clear...  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 06:23:40 PM
Science itself has no voice.  Scientists say various things, and some of them often are wrong.

When they speak with a consensus, it's worth considering whether they are all engaging in group think.  Science is about disagreement, and then steps to check what is right.  I've been to conferences that devolved into old men shouting at each other.

Governors decided what could remain open and what could not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 06:24:59 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 18, 2020, 06:18:56 PM
is it clear that the virus and attempts to defeat it are all political in most other countries worldwide?
The wife listens to French news each morning (along with classical music).  This is being used as a political hammer in France as well.

A French President has much more power than ours does, so he gets the blame for bad things.  He's not very popular right now, but neither are the options.

And he's in office for 6 years I think.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 18, 2020, 06:32:08 PM
I understand that politicians worldwide will be blamed

I just don't thank any politician on any side or in any country can do much about the spread of the virus or the damage it causes an economy
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on October 18, 2020, 06:37:21 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 18, 2020, 06:32:08 PM
I understand that politicians worldwide will be blamed

I just don't thank any politician on any side or in any country can do much about the spread of the virus or the damage it causes an economy
They can't. And it's sad this entire thing has been politicized to the hilt. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 18, 2020, 06:38:21 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 18, 2020, 06:32:08 PM
I understand that politicians worldwide will be blamed

I just don't thank any politician on any side or in any country can do much about the spread of the virus or the damage it causes an economy
Pretty much agree. ( I will say, the supposed strategy of getting real about lockdowns to flatten the curve was the right move and those in power can, and did , positively impact that).  And it is fair to debate the “ balance” of economic viability versus the spread.

but I don’t think it’s fair or realistic to blame the pandemic on one person or party, and in fact those doing that I’m many cases don’t even believe what they themselves are saying.   They have ulterior motives.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 06:40:45 PM
I think a leader could and should  have been more open about encouraging folks to distance and wear masks.

I'm not talking initially when there was a bad mask shortage and health care folks needed them more than us.

We're doing what we can here now, I think, and it could get very bad this winter.  I don't see a viable additional step we could take in the US NOW.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 18, 2020, 06:41:01 PM
anyone that truly thinks one party is good and the other party is evil is too ignorant for me to discuss the subject with
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on October 18, 2020, 06:42:12 PM
I think it is fine to look at the rates of other countries but it really is an apples and oranges comparison. There isn’t another country in the world with 102 international airports. The number of air miles US residents travel each year is nearly double that of the next closest country.  The US is truly the travel hub of the world.

You can’t point to one country on the planet and make a comparison that makes sense.  So when people say with better leadership, or this, or that  the US would have fewer deaths there isn’t a shred of evidence to back that up. I mean, they are allowed to think that, but it’s rampant  speculation.  I could as easily say without impeccable leadership the US death toll would be much worse and the statement would have just as much validity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 06:42:39 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 18, 2020, 06:41:01 PM
anyone that truly thinks one party is good and the other party is evil is too ignorant for me to discuss the subject with

I often liken this to Ohio State fans and Michigan fans.  One side is all good and the other pure evil.  It's human tribalism, and a substitute for critical thinking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on October 18, 2020, 06:43:54 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 18, 2020, 06:32:08 PM
I understand that politicians worldwide will be blamed

I just don't thank any politician on any side or in any country can do much about the spread of the virus or the damage it causes an economy
Me either, but that is a reasonable viewpoint that doesn’t have a political motivation. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 18, 2020, 06:45:36 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 06:42:39 PM
I often liken this to Ohio State fans and Michigan fans.  One side is all good and the other pure evil.  It's human tribalism, and a substitute for critical thinking.

that's fine if you're rooting for sports teams or vehicle manufacturers

but, politics is actually fairly important

citizens should do more thinking about this
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 18, 2020, 06:50:07 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 06:42:39 PM
I often liken this to Ohio State fans and Michigan fans.  One side is all good and the other pure evil.  It's human tribalism, and a substitute for critical thinking.

That's a generalization - I thought you hated all of those.I'd love to return to Woody/Bo,Earle/Bo.When it see-sawed back and forth and was rivalry.Play for a keg in the field next to the abandoned warehouse over by the RR tracks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 18, 2020, 06:51:22 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 18, 2020, 06:41:01 PM
anyone that truly thinks one party is good and the other party is evil is too ignorant for me to discuss the subject with
I did mention I'm voting neither - just the issues
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 18, 2020, 06:54:29 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on October 18, 2020, 06:51:22 PM
I did mention I'm voting neither - just the issues
unfortunately, we are a very very small minority
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on October 18, 2020, 06:54:48 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 06:40:45 PM
I think a leader could and should  have been more open about encouraging folks to distance and wear masks.
agreed. but at the same time- a leader shouldn't induce panic. there's a delicate balance to strike there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 18, 2020, 07:06:13 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 18, 2020, 06:41:01 PM
anyone that truly thinks one party is good and the other party is evil is too ignorant for me to discuss the subject with
What if you think that the whole thing including both parties is filled with certain evil people?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on October 18, 2020, 07:10:04 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 18, 2020, 07:06:13 PM
What if you think that the whole thing including both parties is filled with certain evil people?
Because it is. Lol. Both parties are bought and paid for. It's one party.

Like Carlin used to say. 

"It's a big club. And YOU AIN'T IN IT."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nyvxt1svxso (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nyvxt1svxso)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 07:22:17 PM
This is why I despise Big Government.  It's inherently corrupt, in all cases, no matter who is President.  I've seen it personally.

The only solution is to limit it's scope and size, and that dog had done run.

Alabama scored again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 18, 2020, 07:24:53 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 18, 2020, 07:06:13 PM
What if you think that the whole thing including both parties is filled with certain evil people?
I think the same way
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 07:30:01 PM
So let me get this straight....we just shrug when the leader of a country calls COVID a hoax while knowing full-well how dangerous it is.  We shrug and suggest it didn't affect anything when the leader of a country lies about it repeatedly.  We shrug and say we can't attribute one extra death to a leader of a country refusing to acknowledge the facts of the virus, often promoting delusional conspiracy theories about it, day after day.  We shrug when the leader of a country influences the CDC to make false and misleading statements back-and-forth, confusing everyone.  Shrug when he directly conflicts his own medical specialist on the subject.  Shrug while saying in one breath that we have the best medial system in the world and in the other, downplaying having the worst death rates in the world.



Your shoulders must be tired from all that shrugging, all in defense of a failure of a human being some of you don't even plan on voting for.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 07:30:22 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 18, 2020, 07:06:13 PM
What if you think that the whole thing including both parties is filled with certain evil people?
This is a certainty.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 07:31:23 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on October 18, 2020, 06:07:21 PM
Ha someone asked you to back you play,show your work and you pull that blithering beauty out of the nether regions.One needs a bucket when reading you posts
I was being clear and went on to answer him.  But you're not interested in that part.  Go away, troll.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 07:32:22 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 18, 2020, 06:22:30 PM
No.  It is clear that the likes of OAF, the liberal mouthpieces and the MSM in this country are politically motivated in what they are saying and how the cast blame.  Very clear... 
I'm only liberal while contained in this far-right echo chamber of a forum.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 07:40:14 PM
Fauci claims Trump took every step he advised.

I still hear nothing about what should be done NOW or why Europe is having worse issues...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on October 18, 2020, 07:48:50 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 07:40:14 PM
Fauci claims Trump took every step he advised.

I still hear nothing about what should be done NOW or why Europe is having worse issues...
Another thing to consider why America might’ve had a problem dealing with this- 

OUR FOOD SUCKS AND OUR HEALTHCARE SUCKS! Lol. 

Millions of people don’t have access to health care- still. And that problem existed long before Trump. 

The bigger problem is the quality of our food & big Agro & FDA. I can tell you first hand food is WAY better and more healthy and more “real” in most European countries than any of the crap we eat in the US. 

And also- we are the fattest, most diabetic, most heart disease stricken nation in the world. Of course a disease like COVID is going to kill us at a higher rate than other countries. Other countries aren’t as grotesquely fat, unhealthy, diabetic, and suffer from heart disease at the rates that we do. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 18, 2020, 07:58:22 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on October 18, 2020, 07:48:50 PM


The bigger problem is the quality of our food & big Agro & FDA. I can tell you first hand food is WAY better and more healthy and more “real” in most European countries than any of the crap we eat in the US.

And also- we are the fattest, most diabetic, most heart disease stricken nation in the world. Of course a disease like COVID is going to kill us at a higher rate than other countries. Other countries aren’t as grotesquely fat, unhealthy, diabetic, and suffer from heart disease at the rates that we do.
One thing I always marvel at is the desert section of the grocery store. Like just the depth of cakes, cookies, pies, candies. This would be like a rare confections shop 100 years ago, and the Piggly Wiggly in podunk has all of it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on October 18, 2020, 07:59:13 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 07:30:01 PM
So let me get this straight....we just shrug when the leader of a country calls COVID a hoax while knowing full-well how dangerous it is.  We shrug and suggest it didn't affect anything when the leader of a country lies about it repeatedly.  We shrug and say we can't attribute one extra death to a leader of a country refusing to acknowledge the facts of the virus, often promoting delusional conspiracy theories about it, day after day.  We shrug when the leader of a country influences the CDC to make false and misleading statements back-and-forth, confusing everyone.  Shrug when he directly conflicts his own medical specialist on the subject.  Shrug while saying in one breath that we have the best medial system in the world and in the other, downplaying having the worst death rates in the world.



Your shoulders must be tired from all that shrugging, all in defense of a failure of a human being some of you don't even plan on voting for. 
He never called the virus a hoax.  He said the Democrats criticism of his handling of it would be the next hoax. It would be the next thing they would use against him.

If he thought it was a hoax why restrict travel from China (which Biden criticized him for)?Why declare a national emergency? Why shut down the economy? Why turn ships into medical facilities?

Why do any of that if you thought it was make believe?





Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 08:01:57 PM
We are fat, it is noticeable when one returns from France.  I also notice a lot of the French smoke cigarettes, far more than here it seems, especially young women.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on October 18, 2020, 08:03:27 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 18, 2020, 07:58:22 PM
One thing I always marvel at is the desert section of the grocery store. Like just the depth of cakes, cookies, pies, candies. This would be like a rare confections shop 100 years ago, and the Piggly Wiggly in podunk has all of it.
That’s only part of it, we have 30 different fast food places on every corner of every city in the US. There are McDonald’s on every block just a couple miles from each other in most US cities/suburbs.

I’ve rented cars and driven all over Italy and France. They just don’t have this. They have some fast food places, but they aren’t everywhere. It’s usually only inside of the big cities. The suburbs and rural areas there is like zero of it.

You really don’t see that many obese people in Italy or Spain or France. Honestly, very rare to see that. US? There are grotesquely fat people everywhere you go.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 18, 2020, 08:08:24 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on October 18, 2020, 08:03:27 PM
That’s only part of it, we have 30 different fast food places on every corner of every city in the US. There are McDonald’s on every block just a couple miles from each other in most US cities/suburbs.

I’ve rented cars and driven all over Italy and France. They just don’t have this. They have some fast food places, but they aren’t everywhere. It’s usually only inside of the big cities. The suburbs and rural areas there is like zero of it.

You really don’t see that many obese people in Italy or Spain or France. Honestly, very rare to see that. US? There are grotesquely fat people everywhere you go.
I have a very distant relationship to true fast food, and never really eat it at volume. Like much of it doesn't seem like such a calorie bomb, unless you get just a boatload of it (which most people do). On work trips, there's always the interesting question of getting like subway or something local in a small town. Like local is usually the play, but when you chose wrong, all bad. 

A part of me wonders about obesity in different kinds of areas. Like I suppose there are fat people in walking-heavy cities, through it feels like the most obesity is concentrated in places that are suburban but also kinda lower middle class. Granted, that's just anecdotal. I'd love to see a study on it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on October 18, 2020, 08:16:52 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 18, 2020, 08:08:24 PM
I have a very distant relationship to true fast food, and never really eat it at volume. Like much of it doesn't seem like such a calorie bomb, unless you get just a boatload of it (which most people do). On work trips, there's always the interesting question of getting like subway or something local in a small town. Like local is usually the play, but when you chose wrong, all bad.

A part of me wonders about obesity in different kinds of areas. Like I suppose there are fat people in walking-heavy cities, through it feels like the most obesity is concentrated in places that are suburban but also kinda lower middle class. Granted, that's just anecdotal. I'd love to see a study on it.
Rich people are fat too. But you’re right, there is probably a higher % of low-income people that are obese vs high-income. They can afford better food. 

Canned food at Walmart, Coca Cola and other sodas, chocolates, candies and all kinds of sugary cakes and cookies and pies, and of course fast food contributes to us being just a bunch of fat asses.

They also don’t drink soda all day long like a lot of Americans do. I know people who go to fast food places at least once maybe twice a day and they get the large or extra large pepsi or coke and drink that poison all day long. Hell I had an aunt who used to drink about a liter of Pepsi every day just by herself. Those big 1 liter gulps at 7-11- drank one of them every single day.

Show me the stats on the COVID deaths- and show me how many were old as dirt and obese. Bet it’s a crazy # probably 90+%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 09:11:25 PM
I doubt infection rates care about weight, mortality rates, probably.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on October 18, 2020, 09:16:43 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 09:11:25 PM
I doubt infection rates care about weight, mortality rates, probably.
Yeah, that’s what I said. Show me the deaths and how many of the deaths were nursing home patients or fat disgusting lards with diabetes or heart disease or both. Probably damn near all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 09:37:15 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on October 18, 2020, 07:59:13 PM
He never called the virus a hoax.  He said the Democrats criticism of his handling of it would be the next hoax. It would be the next thing they would use against him.

If he thought it was a hoax why restrict travel from China (which Biden criticized him for)?Why declare a national emergency? Why shut down the economy? Why turn ships into medical facilities?

Why do any of that if you thought it was make believe?






He didn't shut down anything.  He absconded all responsibility (and thus - accountability) and made it fall to the governors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 18, 2020, 09:53:08 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 09:37:15 PM
He didn't shut down anything.  He absconded all responsibility (and thus - accountability) and made it fall to the governors.
he didnt abandon anything you nitwit

this is the states' responsibility

it would be unconstitutional for the President to not leave it up to the states
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on October 18, 2020, 10:00:26 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 09:37:15 PM
He didn't shut down anything.  He absconded all responsibility (and thus - accountability) and made it fall to the governors.
 That is not absconding responsibility.  That is following the Constitution.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 10:03:24 PM
I think mistakes were made earlier on.  Some of the verbiage was inaccurate, in my view.

Today, however, I don't know what else we could be doing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on October 18, 2020, 11:24:43 PM
Purdue Coach Jeff Brohm tests positive one week before Iowa @ Purdue.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 19, 2020, 12:55:57 AM
Quote from: Kris60 on October 18, 2020, 10:00:26 PM
That is not absconding responsibility.  That is following the Constitution.


No no no no no, I'm not talking going full-tyrant absurdity (like Trump would prefer in a different situation).  I'm talking being a good leader and using your influence for good.  Saying, "hey, everyone, this is a serious virus."  Or something like, "this is likely going to spread and you need to take precautions."  


Basically the opposite of what he did.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on October 19, 2020, 06:04:01 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 19, 2020, 12:55:57 AM
No no no no no, I'm not talking going full-tyrant absurdity (like Trump would prefer in a different situation).  I'm talking being a good leader and using your influence for good.  Saying, "hey, everyone, this is a serious virus."  Or something like, "this is likely going to spread and you need to take precautions." 


Basically the opposite of what he did.
He declared a national health emergency in early February before the first US death had been reported from Covid.  He restricted travel from China before the first US death had been recorded. Biden called him xenophobic for doing it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 19, 2020, 07:11:59 AM
I personally would have SAID different things in March than Trump SAID.  I'm not sure how much difference it would have made.  I might also have panicked everyone into hoarding something weird, like say toilet paper.

But given Trump down played this, and he did early on, what should WE be doing NOW that we are not doing?

National mask mandate from the President?  Really?  Make it enforceable by Federal "mandate"?  Then local police would have no purview and many would be directed to ignore the law, which likely is unconstitutional anyway without legislation, and perhaps even with.  The local police enforce local and state laws.

Or we could allow each governor and mayor to respond to the local situation which will be vastly different from NYC to Boseman, MT.

We have a local mask "mandate" in Atlanta that really is nothing, it's entirely optional, I'd wage not a single ticket has been written.  I see police out with masks around their necks, or in their pocket.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2020, 07:16:32 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 18, 2020, 06:38:21 PM
Pretty much agree. ( I will say, the supposed strategy of getting real about lockdowns to flatten the curve was the right move and those in power can, and did , positively impact that).  And it is fair to debate the “ balance” of economic viability versus the spread.

but I don’t think it’s fair or realistic to blame the pandemic on one person or party, and in fact those doing that I’m many cases don’t even believe what they themselves are saying.  They have ulterior motives. 
I do. 


CCP.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 19, 2020, 07:20:31 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2020, 07:16:32 AM
I do.


CCP.
But OAF says there is no evidence lol.  
Then he insults people of faiths because “ they believe in things that don’t exist”.  

talk about hypocrisy lol.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 19, 2020, 07:23:45 AM
France has 67 million residents and is reporting 30,000 cases per day.  The US is reporting 50,000 cases with nearly 330 million residents.

Germany, which has done well to date, is also showing a spike higher than they were in March now.   All of Europe is going up, rather quickly.

Possible factors?

restarting school
cooler weather keeping folks more indoors
relaxation of individual hygiene and isolation and masks
more folks back at work

Anything else?  The school item is coincident at least.  I can see that in summer folks likely remained more at home.  The wife thinks the August vacations were out of control and that young people started partying like it was 2014.

Will this spike level off again, as it did previously, without hard steps being taken?  

I think there will be a rush to get any vaccine out perhaps with a temporary clearance for some portion of the population.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 19, 2020, 07:24:36 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 19, 2020, 07:20:31 AM
But OAF says there is no evidence lol. 

Can any of us not steeped in biochemistry and virology and the data know for sure?  (Either way.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2020, 07:24:46 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 18, 2020, 09:37:15 PM
He didn't shut down anything.  He absconded all responsibility (and thus - accountability) and made it fall to the governors.
Read the Constitution. Don't re-write it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2020, 07:26:23 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 18, 2020, 10:03:24 PM
I think mistakes were made earlier on.  Some of the verbiage was inaccurate, in my view.

Today, however, I don't know what else we could be doing.
I keep asking the same thing.

My view is "we" are doing all we can. I hope someone is planning the counter-attack on China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 19, 2020, 07:27:51 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 19, 2020, 07:24:36 AM
Can any of us not steeped in biochemistry and virology and the data know for sure?  (Either way.)
So we should insult people who have faith if we dont?   Come on man.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2020, 07:30:01 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 19, 2020, 07:24:36 AM
Can any of us not steeped in biochemistry and virology and the data know for sure?  (Either way.)
Anyone who knows anything about the CCP and their motivations should know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 19, 2020, 07:32:41 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 19, 2020, 07:27:51 AM
So we should insult people who have faith if we dont?  Come on man. 
I try not to insult anyone of any stripe.  I merely note that technically I do not know if this virus was man made with intent to cause such damage.  Even if the CCP is nefarious (and I agree they are), they may not have "cooked this up" with intent.

Most of the stories I've read indicate the virus is zoonotic and natural, and that is at least a good possibility.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2020, 07:52:35 AM
That's the thing. We don't know, and probably will never know. The CCP is good at what they do.

Even if it was not cooked up, I can straight up say without doubt or second guessing myself that they knowingly unleashed this upon us after they knew they had it, and they did it far earlier than most believe. Like, well over a year ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 19, 2020, 08:16:20 AM
I suspect it would have been picked up over a year ago due to the unexpected deaths of elderly, which doesn't show up in our mortality rates.

Excess mortality in the US rose in March coincident with reported COVID deaths.  It actually increased more.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2020, 08:18:38 AM
Again,

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-science-idUSKBN23X2HQ
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 19, 2020, 08:26:24 AM
Again, that report is rather speculative, in my view.

https://theconversation.com/was-coronavirus-really-in-europe-in-march-2019-141582

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 19, 2020, 08:33:55 AM
https://www.technologynetworks.com/tn/articles/the-coronavirus-outbreak-331371

This looks to me like a solid review of what's known currently about COVID.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2020, 08:48:27 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 19, 2020, 08:26:24 AM
Again, that report is rather speculative, in my view.

https://theconversation.com/was-coronavirus-really-in-europe-in-march-2019-141582


Italy was showing it in December.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-sewage-idUSKBN23Q1J9


Our own @GopherRock (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=47)  was there then, and came down with a pretty bad illness a couple weeks later.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 19, 2020, 08:51:13 AM
I really do think had it been around much earlier we would have noticed.  It's very contagious obviously, and dangerous for the elderly who at the time were not protected at all.  I got sick in France in early February, but I don't think it was COVID.  I had very heavy congestion and coughing consistent with bronchitis which I've had a few times.

The spike in March and April is pretty obvious, I think.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2020, 08:56:04 AM
I bet you had it.

Had to go to the ER on Friday (allergic reaction). Got tested for Covid, Flu and Strep. I had strep. Weird. I didn't know that was making the rounds, but it is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 19, 2020, 09:07:42 AM
Strep in one form or another is always making the rounds.  We individually may come into contact with some version of Strep almost daily.

My symptoms were not at all like what is reported for COVID.

I really do not think this was "out" before December of last year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2020, 09:15:17 AM
There is some evidence that it was in California in November.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 19, 2020, 09:18:16 AM
Yeah I don't think it's crazy to say it could have been in California that early.  That's the beginning of flu season so people that caught it then, might have just thought it was the flu, and not even bothered going in to a doctor for it.

If it didn't make it into the most vulnerable populations at that time, we wouldn't have seen the death toll increase.  It wasn't until it hit the retirement homes in Seattle that we really saw the deaths rising in the USA.  And then there was NY and NJ...

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 19, 2020, 09:21:01 AM
It would have spread rapidly had it been here earlier, just as it spread rapidly in March.  I could not explain how it could have NOT spread and been noticed in December and then spread in March as fast as it did.

The flu season in December was not remarkable.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 19, 2020, 09:22:48 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/Q99E7Gm.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 19, 2020, 09:23:32 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 19, 2020, 09:21:01 AM
It would have spread rapidly had it been here earlier, just as it spread rapidly in March.  I could not explain how it could have NOT spread and been noticed in December and then spread in March as fast as it did.

The flu season in December was not remarkable.


Like I said, if it didn't hit the vulnerable populations, then the deaths don't rise.  So the illness just looks like more flu, to the people that are getting it.  Perhaps a really bad flu.  Or perhaps not much at all.

It's possible that it only appeared to "spread rapidly" in March, because we didn't start testing for it until March.  At that point, you're effectively testing one tiny thimble into a vast ocean of already-positive, and the case numbers skyrocket.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 19, 2020, 09:44:10 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 19, 2020, 09:22:48 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/Q99E7Gm.png)
are European countries getting close to elections?  Cause this stuff is obviously political
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on October 19, 2020, 09:57:18 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2020, 08:48:27 AM
Our own @GopherRock (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=47)  was there then, and came down with a pretty bad illness a couple weeks later.
I did not have the illness you are referring to. However, my wife did. She had a weird chest disease that knocked her out for two weeks after we got back. She has "recovered", but her full lung capacity has not returned. Our bike rides this summer were much shorter than previously. She hasn't had blood drawn for antibodies, but I have a sinking suspicion that she had COVID. 

As for timing of arrival in the states, I'd buy a much earlier solution than originally. As noted, my wife and I were in Italy (Rome, Assisi, Venice, Bologna, Reggio Emilia, and Florence) at the end of December, and I hope like hell we weren't a transmission vector. And the first COVID death in the US was in San Jose a month before the first death in Seattle. But I think excess deaths may be a better measure of confirmed deaths, and they didn't go ballistic in the US until March. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2020, 10:06:21 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 19, 2020, 09:22:48 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/Q99E7Gm.png)
I remember certain people in Europe asking whether the US "cared" about this thing over the summer.

Now it looks like they don't care.

The blame game is maddening to me. The only blame rests with the CCP.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2020, 10:33:01 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on October 19, 2020, 09:57:18 AM
I did not have the illness you are referring to. However, my wife did. She had a weird chest disease that knocked her out for two weeks after we got back. She has "recovered", but her full lung capacity has not returned. Our bike rides this summer were much shorter than previously. She hasn't had blood drawn for antibodies, but I have a sinking suspicion that she had COVID.

As for timing of arrival in the states, I'd buy a much earlier solution than originally. As noted, my wife and I were in Italy (Rome, Assisi, Venice, Bologna, Reggio Emilia, and Florence) at the end of December, and I hope like hell we weren't a transmission vector. And the first COVID death in the US was in San Jose a month before the first death in Seattle. But I think excess deaths may be a better measure of confirmed deaths, and they didn't go ballistic in the US until March.
Sorry for the confusion. I misremembered and thought it was you.

Probably too late for an antibody test. That ship sails at about 3 months. Hopefully her T cells take over, and I really hope she can get her lungs back. Has she tried nebulizers or inhalers, like a Pro Air or even QVar? The latter is a steroid that helps repair lung damage. I've used it ever since I had it. Seems to be helping me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 19, 2020, 10:39:44 AM
Quote from: utee94 on October 19, 2020, 09:23:32 AM
It's possible that it only appeared to "spread rapidly" in March, because we didn't start testing for it until March.  
And those test kits were slapped together with out any trial runs really.Some news sources even said they were old.How the hell is an emerging virus already have old test kits.Prolly because the sources are yodeling roaches to begin with
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2020, 11:33:11 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 19, 2020, 07:11:59 AM
I personally would have SAID different things in March than Trump SAID.  I'm not sure how much difference it would have made.  I might also have panicked everyone into hoarding something weird, like say toilet paper.

But given Trump down played this, and he did early on, what should WE be doing NOW that we are not doing?
My criticism is that as of early February, per the Woodward tapes, Trump knew it was more deadly than the flu, knew it was airborne transmission, and was publicly downplaying it. 

Now, that may have been great if in March he started to realize it was going to spiral out of control, and changed his tune. But he's continued to downplay it, and actively foment his base against things like distancing and masks, ever since. Even to the point of the debate where he chided Biden "I always see that guy wearing a mask". It played into the absurd masculinity crap of "I'm not going to wear a mask because I'm not scared of this thing." Hell, even after GETTING the virus and needing oxygen and taking experimental treatments, he's tweeting "don't be scared of COVID" even though without the access to medicine and rapid testing he has, given his age and obesity, it very well could have killed him. 

He's been downplaying it since day 1 and turning it into a political issue. His statements, EVER since this started, have been causing the messaging problems I've been highlighting here. 

A proper president would have been telling the truth, and trying to communicate how America could get through this, together. This one just blames the lockdowns and deaths on "cities run by Democrats, all" that are trying to make him look bad. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on October 19, 2020, 11:38:31 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 19, 2020, 11:33:11 AM
My criticism is that as of early February, per the Woodward tapes, Trump knew it was more deadly than the flu, knew it was airborne transmission, and was publicly downplaying it.

Now, that may have been great if in March he started to realize it was going to spiral out of control, and changed his tune. But he's continued to downplay it, and actively foment his base against things like distancing and masks, ever since. Even to the point of the debate where he chided Biden "I always see that guy wearing a mask". It played into the absurd masculinity crap of "I'm not going to wear a mask because I'm not scared of this thing." Hell, even after GETTING the virus and needing oxygen and taking experimental treatments, he's tweeting "don't be scared of COVID" even though without the access to medicine and rapid testing he has, given his age and obesity, it very well could have killed him.

He's been downplaying it since day 1 and turning it into a political issue. His statements, EVER since this started, have been causing the messaging problems I've been highlighting here.

A proper president would have been telling the truth, and trying to communicate how America could get through this, together. This one just blames the lockdowns and deaths on "cities run by Democrats, all" that are trying to make him look bad.
Yeah, it’s too bad he didn’t pull any publicity stunts like pretending to drink a glass of water from a lead poisoned water supply and then not doing a single f**ng thing about fixing said water supply. Lol.

I’ve definitely seen him play it down, not sure he’s the one that’s turned it into a political issue. That’s coming from the other side and the media if you ask me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2020, 11:41:26 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 19, 2020, 09:21:01 AM
It would have spread rapidly had it been here earlier, just as it spread rapidly in March.  I could not explain how it could have NOT spread and been noticed in December and then spread in March as fast as it did.

The flu season in December was not remarkable.
We already know there are at least 6 strains (it appears 6 total, but two are sub-strains of the dominant strain), but one of the key differences is that the strain that originated in China has vastly superseded by what it mutated to in Europe. 

I posted this a week or so ago in response to a discussion with 320: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200803105246.htm


Quote
Currently, there are six strains of coronavirus. The original one is the L strain, that appeared in Wuhan in December 2019. Its first mutation -- the S strain -- appeared at the beginning of 2020, while, since mid-January 2020, we have had strains V and G. To date strain G is the most widespread: it mutated into strains GR and GH at the end of February 2020.
"Strain G and its related strains GR and GH are by far the most widespread, representing 74% of all gene sequences we analysed," says Giorgi. "They present four mutations, two of which are able to change the sequence of the RNA polymerase and Spike proteins of the virus. This characteristic probably facilitates the spread of the virus."
If we look at the coronavirus map, we can see that strains G and GR are the most frequent across Europe and Italy. According to the available data, GH strain seems close to non-existence in Italy, while it occurs more frequently in France and Germany. This seems to confirm the effectiveness of last months' containment methods.
In North America, the most widespread strain is GH, while in South America we find the GR strain more frequently. In Asia, where the Wuhan L strain initially appeared, the spread of strains G, GH and GR is increasing. These strains landed in Asia only at the beginning of March, more than a month after their spread in Europe.
Globally, strains G, GH and GR are constantly increasing. Strain S can be found in some restricted areas in the US and Spain. The L and V strains are gradually disappearing.
So it's actually easy to explain how it arrived here prior to the end of 2019, but wasn't really noticed, but then the G strain and its spin-off substrains simply outcompeted the L strain which is slowly disappearing. 

Which also suggests that if the CCP deliberately engineered this virus, they did a crappy job because the mutation far outperforms the original. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2020, 11:48:32 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on October 19, 2020, 11:38:31 AM
I’ve definitely seen him play it down, not sure he’s the one that’s turned it into a political issue. That’s coming from the other side and the media if you ask me.
Well, both sides are definitely playing the politicization game. Whichever side "lit" the fire, Trump and the media are both content to constantly throw gasoline on it. 

By the time we got to March, "play it down" was the wrong approach IMHO. And he's quite frankly never wavered from that, even after getting it himself and requiring some pretty intense treatment. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on October 19, 2020, 11:58:05 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 19, 2020, 11:48:32 AM
Well, both sides are definitely playing the politicization game. Whichever side "lit" the fire, Trump and the media are both content to constantly throw gasoline on it.

By the time we got to March, "play it down" was the wrong approach IMHO. And he's quite frankly never wavered from that, even after getting it himself and requiring some pretty intense treatment.
I can see both sides of the argument. Have to take it serious, but also can’t incite panic and go overboard. 

Unfortunately I think he played it down too much, and the other side played it up too much. Way too much.

Also- find it odd how when people want to go into the streets and protest in huge crowds by the tens of thousands- media and dems have no problem with that- suddenly coronavirus is no big deal. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 19, 2020, 12:02:24 PM
It is possible a less virulent less noticeable variant was out much earlier, obviously.  But the one we have now is so contagious I think it would have ravaged seniors earlier as nobody had a clue they needed to be isolated.  The curves below are true nearly everywhere, and coincident with COVID known outbreaks.

(https://i.imgur.com/GdYqMBP.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 19, 2020, 12:04:28 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on October 19, 2020, 11:58:05 AM
Unfortunately I think he played it down too much, and the other side played it up too much. Way too much.
Both sides politicized it, we had Democrats in March saying to come on out, the water is fine, no need to worry.  Then they flipped of course.  So, if Trump down played it (and I think he did), so did Pelosi and others on the D side.  

Politics.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 19, 2020, 12:04:42 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/6o66CFK.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2020, 02:02:37 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 19, 2020, 12:02:24 PM
It is possible a less virulent less noticeable variant was out much earlier, obviously.  But the one we have now is so contagious I think it would have ravaged seniors earlier as nobody had a clue they needed to be isolated.  The curves below are true nearly everywhere, and coincident with COVID known outbreaks.
Well, I figure virologists who study the DNA sequences and determine strains know something. 

They say the G and its variant substrains GH and GR mutated in January and February, respectively. Which, considering that since then they'd grown to 74% of prevalence by August (according to that sciencedaily article), suggests they're FAR more transmissible than the original L strain from Wuhan.

Which of course perfectly fits what we saw. We probably had the L strain in the US by December, but cases initially grew slowly. Which makes sense that it hit San Jose and Seattle, because both areas have huge economic ties to China due to the tech sector. But it didn't spread like wildfire, because it's not as transmissible. Once the G strain hit from Europe, especially having hit densely populated areas like NYC/NJ which have more exposure to Europe than we have on the West Coast, it just exploded. 

It probably also [more than masks] explains why so many Asian countries have done well with this. They locked down before G, GR, and GH could really establish themselves. The fact that they instituted containment measures and then already had a mask-friendly culture kept those strains from gaining any foothold whatsoever, while it ravaged Europe and the US because we didn't embrace masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 19, 2020, 02:11:50 PM
Huh, that hypothesis appears to be consistent with the known data from what I can tell.

As you note, it also suggests this was not bioengineered with intent.

Fascinating, good work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 19, 2020, 02:14:56 PM
I don't think it was bioengineered with intent, but.....

the Chinese and the WHO intentionally kept the seriousness of the virus under wraps to protect themselves and allow the spread to  Europe and the USA
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2020, 02:32:43 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 19, 2020, 02:14:56 PM
I don't think it was bioengineered with intent, but.....

the Chinese and the WHO intentionally kept the seriousness of the virus under wraps to protect themselves and allow the spread to  Europe and the USA
Although...

...based on the known evidence the dominant strains which mutated in January and February in Europe are significantly MORE transmissible than the L strain which originated in Wuhan.

I mean, nothing I say will stop the "blame everything on China and nuke them from orbit" crowd, but I think the science shows that the G, GH, and GR strain are more serious than the L strain because of higher transmissibility. And that China wouldn't have been speaking about those strains which they had no experience with. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on October 19, 2020, 02:35:42 PM
Trump downplaying it to me was the equivalent of someone saying, “It’s going to be ok” when you get bad news.  It was meant to provide hope.  He would trot out the experts to give the grim facts and what to do to protect yourself so I never thought he was hiding that.  

I’m still not sure what Trump was supposed to say in early February when there were literally less than 20 people in the country infected and not one death in the country attributed to it yet.  I do know by the time he had the conversation with Woodward he had already put travel restrictions coming from China and declared a national health emergency and that was with almost no cases in the country to speak of.  IMO, the virus was probably here long before 2019 even ended.  We just didn’t know it yet.

I’m not a big fan of hindsight criticism and that is what all of this is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 19, 2020, 02:47:42 PM
This from my travel agent............. so taken with a grain of salt

A new study by the Department of Defense just came out with their completed study about 5 days ago that said the Risk of COVID-19 exposure on planes is 'virtually non- existent' when masked. Good news!! The International Air Transport Association also released new research, saying the risk of contracting the virus on a plane appears to be "in the same category as being struck by lightning.”

Among 1.2 billion travelers, they found only 44 published cases of potential in-flight transmission. Most of those 44 cases occurred in the early days of the pandemic when masks were not required. Their test indicates that being on board an aircraft is the safest indoor public space, because of the unique configuration inside an aircraft that includes aggressive ventilation, and lots of airflow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on October 19, 2020, 02:50:54 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 19, 2020, 02:47:42 PM
This from my travel agent............. so taken with a grain of salt

A new study by the Department of Defense just came out with their completed study about 5 days ago that said the Risk of COVID-19 exposure on planes is 'virtually non- existent' when masked. Good news!! The International Air Transport Association also released new research, saying the risk of contracting the virus on a plane appears to be "in the same category as being struck by lightning.”

Among 1.2 billion travelers, they found only 44 published cases of potential in-flight transmission. Most of those 44 cases occurred in the early days of the pandemic when masks were not required. Their test indicates that being on board an aircraft is the safest indoor public space, because of the unique configuration inside an aircraft that includes aggressive ventilation, and lots of airflow.
I saw that on the news last week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 19, 2020, 03:03:19 PM
any updates on Cruise ships???  Hah!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 19, 2020, 03:04:45 PM
President Donald Trump said Monday that he will take a coronavirus test before his next debate with Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden later this week.

Seems to be a "good" message.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 19, 2020, 03:08:10 PM
That's all fine, but my friend that travels regularly for business says that on many of his flights, people wear masks in the airport, while boarding, and then after the plane lifts off, they take them off.  That's zero help, really.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on October 19, 2020, 03:09:38 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 19, 2020, 02:11:50 PM
Huh, that hypothesis appears to be consistent with the known data from what I can tell.

As you note, it also suggests this was not bioengineered with intent.

Fascinating, good work.
As far as I can tell no credible person thinks this was bioengineered in a lab. 

Many very smart, credible people however believe it accidentally escaped from a lab. 

There is a huge difference.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on October 19, 2020, 03:17:24 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 19, 2020, 02:32:43 PM
I mean, nothing I say will stop the "blame everything on China and nuke them from orbit" crowd, but I think the science shows that the G, GH, and GR strain are more serious than the L strain because of higher transmissibility. And that China wouldn't have been speaking about those strains which they had no experience with.
Few things. 

A) it is 100% China’s fault. More particularly the CCP.

B) when people say bomb them they are obviously saying shit out of frustration and not really meaning it. Nobody wants really wants a war with China. 

C) what the US should do is (1) cancel it’s debt with the CCP, (2) penalize US companies that continue to outsource and do business with China at the expense of the American worker, and (3) impose high tariffs on all Chinese made goods and (4) give incredible incentives and tax breaks to US companies which move out of China and come back to the US. 

Time to end our relationships with China and use our power to encourage the rest of the world to follow suite.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2020, 03:18:56 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on October 19, 2020, 03:09:38 PM
As far as I can tell no credible person thinks this was bioengineered in a lab.

Many very smart, credible people however believe it accidentally escaped from a lab.

There is a huge difference.
I don't "believe" it accidentally escaped from a lab. I don't have evidence for such to justify a "belief". 

I do, however, find that a very plausible possibility, given that there is a lab in Wuhan that studies these types of viruses. And therefore I have not in any way ruled it out. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2020, 03:43:33 PM
And I cannot rule out anything. I just don't trust them.

I agree with MDot. No military war needed, nor wanted. Economic warfare will be enough to take them down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2020, 03:50:17 PM
The next couple of weeks will tell us a lot... 

Below is the graph of cases vs deaths with a 3-week lag built in between the two. We saw during the summer spike that deaths largely followed the 3-week delayed trend line of cases. Since Sep 29, the case numbers have increased markedly, so we'll see if anything has meaningfully changed to keep our death rate down.


(https://i.imgur.com/r5vS1r5.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2020, 03:52:04 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2020, 03:43:33 PM
And I cannot rule out anything. I just don't trust them.

I agree with MDot. No military war needed, nor wanted. Economic warfare will be enough to take them down.
Unless it takes us down. 

As I said before, starting a trade war is like setting your house on fire to ruin your neighbor's property value. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on October 19, 2020, 04:10:47 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 19, 2020, 03:52:04 PM
Unless it takes us down.

As I said before, starting a trade war is like setting your house on fire to ruin your neighbor's property value.
A) It won’t take us down. It’ll however only make us stronger. They need us more than we need them. By a lot.

B) Bad analogy. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 19, 2020, 04:32:43 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 19, 2020, 02:32:43 PM


I mean, nothing I say will stop the "blame everything on China and nuke them from orbit" crowd,
:a102:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 19, 2020, 04:39:02 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 19, 2020, 03:04:45 PM
President Donald Trump said Monday that he will take a coronavirus test before his next debate with Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden later this week.
Is that happening?Hope so
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2020, 04:43:25 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on October 19, 2020, 04:32:43 PM
:a102:
It's the only way to be sure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 19, 2020, 04:46:29 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 19, 2020, 03:50:17 PM
The next couple of weeks will tell us a lot...

Below is the graph of cases vs deaths with a 3-week lag built in between the two. We saw during the summer spike that deaths largely followed the 3-week delayed trend line of cases. Since Sep 29, the case numbers have increased markedly, so we'll see if anything has meaningfully changed to keep our death rate down.


[img width=500 height=242.969]https://i.imgur.com/r5vS1r5.png[/img]

This graph actually shows the upward trend in cases began somewhere around September 15th.  If three weeks is the appropriate lag time, then I would have expected the deaths to begin trending upward two weeks ago, around 10/6.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 19, 2020, 04:47:57 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on October 19, 2020, 03:09:38 PM
As far as I can tell no credible person thinks this was bioengineered in a lab.

Many very smart, credible people however believe it accidentally escaped from a lab.

There is a huge difference.
Well then what the hell were they doing with it in the 1st place.Your talking CCP I wouldn't put it past them,they are as nefarious as ours is shameless & bumbling
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2020, 07:17:45 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 19, 2020, 04:46:29 PM
This graph actually shows the upward trend in cases began somewhere around September 15th.  If three weeks is the appropriate lag time, then I would have expected the deaths to begin trending upward two weeks ago, around 10/6.

Well, there was a weird dip in the 7-day MA of cases between about Sep 6 and Sep 18, which didn't seem to show up in the 7-day MA of deaths 3 weeks later. 

But if you look at the 7-day MA of cases, it was pretty stable between late Aug and Sep 29 with the exception of that weird trough. 

I can't explain why that trough didn't show up as a decrease in the daily deaths 3 weeks later. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2020, 07:43:30 PM
My view is that if POTUS wants to claim leadership on this issue, he should probably stop denigrating the nation's foremost authority on infectious diseases...

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1318252736538767360

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2020, 07:45:20 PM
But hey, I'll give him credit. Trump is known for punching down...

...in this case, the national approval ratings re: coronavirus are much higher for Fauci than Trump, so he's finally punching up!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 19, 2020, 08:12:59 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 19, 2020, 07:45:20 PM
But hey, I'll give him credit. Trump is known for punching down...

...in this case, the national approval ratings re: coronavirus are much higher for Fauci than Trump, so he's finally punching up!
I thought we agreed the politics was for the other thread?  Your TDS fits better over there.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on October 19, 2020, 08:30:14 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 19, 2020, 08:12:59 PM
I thought we agreed the politics was for the other thread?  Your TDS fits better over there. 
Well to be fair the president was criticizing Dr. Fauci's ability to throw a baseball so it is sports related
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on October 19, 2020, 08:32:24 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 19, 2020, 07:45:20 PM
But hey, I'll give him credit. Trump is known for punching down...

...in this case, the national approval ratings re: coronavirus are much higher for Fauci than Trump, so he's finally punching up!
And this is the part of Trump that drives me crazy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 19, 2020, 08:33:48 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on October 19, 2020, 08:30:14 PM
Well to be fair the president was criticizing Dr. Fauci's ability to throw a baseball so it is sports related
I guess TDS crosses all boundaries. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 19, 2020, 08:56:51 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on October 19, 2020, 08:32:24 PM
And this is the part of Trump that drives me crazy.
Yes- pretty much true for everyone.  But these folks never want to discuss the alternative.  Raising taxes on people and companies, packing the court, forging the documents and falsifying the whole Russia hoax, getting caught taking money fromBurisma, Green new deal, defunding law enforcement, supporting Marxist groups like BLM and violence from terrorist groups like Antifa, falsifying accusations and promoting them to ruin Justic Kavanaugh’s life, faking a reason for impeachment, free medical coverage and stimulus payments for Illegals, activist judges and using the judiciary for circumventing congress and the constitution instead of interpreting it, completely controlling the media and using censorship to attempt to manipulate their policy, etc etc etc.   
The reasons I will likely  never vote for another Dem as long as I live only start there.  They claim they want to unite us.  😂😂. But they want Feinstein to step down because she embraced Lindsay Graham in a hug.  The want to control, not unite. And their answer to those who have the courage to disagree is violence.
Their playbook is old.  Do horrible shit and accuse the other side of what they are doing. 
These guys have one card they can play.  Blame/ hate Trump.  It’s was old 6 months ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2020, 09:15:16 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 19, 2020, 08:12:59 PM
I thought we agreed the politics was for the other thread?  Your TDS fits better over there. 
Yeah, the half anarcho-capitalist half libertarian is TDS because he criticizes Dear Leader. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 19, 2020, 09:17:53 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 19, 2020, 09:15:16 PM
Yeah, the half anarcho-capitalist half libertarian is TDS because he criticizes Dear Leader.
Is that all you have?  Who will you blame when he is gone( after say 6-8 years of blaming him)?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 19, 2020, 09:29:36 PM
the next guy behind the podium

thats what the POTUS does

he takes the blame
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2020, 09:31:11 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 19, 2020, 09:17:53 PM
Is that all you have?  Who will you blame when he is gone( after say 6-8 years of blaming him)?
Oh, I've blamed every president we've had in my lifetime, for many things. None have imperiled the republic like this one. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2020, 09:33:28 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 19, 2020, 09:29:36 PM
the next guy behind the podium

thats what the POTUS does

he takes the blame
https://youtu.be/rzU1kcYG2oI
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 19, 2020, 09:37:59 PM
hah, many times it's true, but no other pres has stated it publicly
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 19, 2020, 10:07:18 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 19, 2020, 09:31:11 PM
Oh, I've blamed every president we've had in my lifetime, for many things. None have imperiled the republic like this one.
Between the MSM and today’s Dems, the risk to the republic is sky high. They are as anti American and anti constitution as anything I can recall in my lifetime.  I can’t think of a single position that I don’t find abhorrent.  

Trump turns me off because he is an asshole with diarrhea of the mouth.  

no outcome can make me happy- but the Dems are as corrupt as they can be- and like 84% of the public, I think the media is corrupt. 

It would be such a refreshing change if you or the other Trump haters could just once make a case for the Dems based on them and their plans instead of the I hate Trump, regurgitated narratives. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on October 19, 2020, 10:11:32 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 19, 2020, 09:31:11 PM
Oh, I've blamed every president we've had in my lifetime, for many things. None have imperiled the republic like this one.
This is hyperbole, no? 

I’d say that Clinton and Bush Jr. imperiled the republic much worse than Trump. 

I’m going to need some specific examples, brother.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on October 19, 2020, 10:13:59 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 19, 2020, 10:07:18 PM
Between the MSM and today’s Dems, the risk to the republic is sky high. They are as anti American and anti constitution as anything I can recall in my lifetime.  I can’t think of a single position that I don’t find abhorrent. 

Trump turns me off because he is an asshole with diarrhea of the mouth. 

no outcome can make me happy- but the Dems are as corrupt as they can be- and like 84% of the public, I think the media is corrupt.

It would be such a refreshing change if you or the other Trump haters could just once make a case for the Dems based on them and their plans instead of the I hate Trump, regurgitated narratives.
The Democrats have nothing to run on. Absolutely nothing. They have no vision or message or hope to get people to go out and vote for them. Which is why in my opinion they will lose. Again. They learned nothing from 2016. At all.

They are corrupt as shit. Clinton hijacked the party in the early 90s and turned it into the party of the corporatists and Clinton and Obama got away with heinous shit Ronald Reagan could only wet dream of. And they got away with it all with a pat on the back by a complicit and worthless mainstream media.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 19, 2020, 10:35:40 PM
Clinton hijacked the party, but not this thread

it's about the virus
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 19, 2020, 11:11:57 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 19, 2020, 07:17:45 PM
Well, there was a weird dip in the 7-day MA of cases between about Sep 6 and Sep 18, which didn't seem to show up in the 7-day MA of deaths 3 weeks later.

But if you look at the 7-day MA of cases, it was pretty stable between late Aug and Sep 29 with the exception of that weird trough.

I can't explain why that trough didn't show up as a decrease in the daily deaths 3 weeks later.

I don't view that as a "weird trough" from Sep6 -18, it looks like a continuation of the downward trend from late July onward.  It's noisy, just as the data trending back up is noisy.  But I don't see 9/29 as the beginning of the upward trend, I see ~9/15 as the beginning of the upward trend, and if deaths are going to follow, as they did back in July, then I'd expect that to begin on 10/6 or thereabouts.  We're already 2 weeks into the region where deaths should increase, if they're going to track as they did before.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: DevilFroggy on October 19, 2020, 11:22:57 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 19, 2020, 10:07:18 PM


It would be such a refreshing change if you or the other Trump haters could just once make a case for the Dems based on them and their plans instead of the I hate Trump, regurgitated narratives.
How about first you try to grasp the very concept that many who aren't fans of Trump also aren't democrats/leftists like bwar and I. You can rightly think Trump is a horrible president without also being some democrat/Biden fanboy, believe it or not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 19, 2020, 11:26:41 PM
Quote from: DevilFroggy on October 19, 2020, 11:22:57 PM
How about first you try to grasp the very concept that many who aren't fans of Trump also aren't democrats/leftists like bwar and I. You can rightly think Trump is a horrible president without also being some democrat/Biden fanboy, believe it or not.
Agree with this 100%.

But, can we take this discussion to a different thread pls?

Oh, and hey, good to see you SDF!  Congrats on your win over the Horns a couple weeks ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on October 20, 2020, 12:14:06 AM
Jeff Brohm will miss the Iowa @ Purdue game Oct. 24 after 2nd positive test.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 20, 2020, 12:18:52 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 19, 2020, 10:35:40 PM
Clinton hijacked the party, but not this thread

it's about the virus
Clinton like Kennedy the old timers use to say "I don't care who Kennedy was screwing hewasn't screwing me (middle class)".I'd start in on Georgie JR but I can't get my hands around his or Dick Cheney's neck.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 20, 2020, 07:03:59 AM
Quote from: DevilFroggy on October 19, 2020, 11:22:57 PM
How about first you try to grasp the very concept that many who aren't fans of Trump also aren't democrats/leftists like bwar and I. You can rightly think Trump is a horrible president without also being some democrat/Biden fanboy, believe it or not.
So that’s why the same people who continually regurgitate Trump hate on here NEVER say why they support the other side, besides Trump hate?

perhaps you may need to grasp the conversation better.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 20, 2020, 07:07:10 AM
Quote from: utee94 on October 19, 2020, 11:26:41 PM
Agree with this 100%.

But, can we take this discussion to a different thread pls?

Oh, and hey, good to see you SDF!  Congrats on your win over the Horns a couple weeks ago.

UTee-  I have a suggestion. Why don’t you issue a final warning. The next poster who brings up politics in this thread gets banned. Nothing would make me happier and I might actually be on the forum more often because this place stinks now with all this political bullshit.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 20, 2020, 08:45:35 AM
I like the explanation of different versions of COVID coming out at different times.  I'm not sold on it, but it fits the data, I think, pretty well.

An extremely lethal virus like say ebola is self limiting because it kills off the host too fast.  You need one that is latent but contagious for a week or so to be effective at transmission.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 20, 2020, 10:13:54 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 20, 2020, 07:07:10 AM
UTee-  I have a suggestion. Why don’t you issue a final warning. The next poster who brings up politics in this thread gets banned. Nothing would make me happier and I might actually be on the forum more often because this place stinks now with all this political bullshit. 
We shouldn't have to issue warnings. Let's just stop. We have B1G football coming up.

The 2020 stream will be closed, and I will start a thread for election and policy discussion only. When the election is decided, that thread will also close. It will no longer be needed and we can get to normal again. Whatever the F that means, anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 20, 2020, 12:59:18 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 20, 2020, 10:13:54 AM
We shouldn't have to issue warnings. Let's just stop. We have B1G football coming up.

The 2020 stream will be closed, and I will start a thread for election and policy discussion only. When the election is decided, that thread will also close. It will no longer be needed and we can get to normal again. Whatever the F that means, anyway.
Agree, there should be no need for warnings, or banning.  

Every single one of us knows what's "over the line."  My expectation is that everyone acts like an adult, and stops trying to push the buttons of others, where vehement disagreement is obvious and expected.  That type of behavior is childish and stupid.

Thank You For Your Support.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 20, 2020, 02:22:56 PM
This thread is infected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 20, 2020, 02:23:51 PM
the NW Iowa county here is at 15% positive rate for testing

RED
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 20, 2020, 02:46:47 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 20, 2020, 02:23:51 PM
the NW Iowa county here is at 15% positive rate for testing

RED
Maybe youse guys should think about wearing a mask here or there...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 20, 2020, 03:55:18 PM
we thought about it

apparently that was getting tired

actually many more people are wearing masks today than back in March/April

the 4 folks that died a couple days ago were all 81 years of age or older

people are tired of this, they're going out and getting on with their lives

better to live and die than to stop living
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 20, 2020, 04:35:46 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 20, 2020, 07:07:10 AM
UTee-  I have a suggestion. Why don’t you issue a final warning. The next poster who brings up politics in this thread gets banned. Nothing would make me happier and I might actually be on the forum more often because this place stinks now with all this political bullshit. 
Ehh. A banning feels a bit too much. I think a lot of us get sucked into it. It's hard to resist for some reason buried deep in our brains. 

I prefer a mass set of deletions of posts over any such thing. If it's near the line, gone. Once even the borderline stuff is gone, no responses, dies out quicker. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 20, 2020, 04:52:05 PM
Washtenaw County issued a stay in place order at UofM  for undergrad students.  

The goal is to stop the spread on campus, which they view is being spread by social gatherings according to contract tracing.  

It does not apply to the football team. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 20, 2020, 10:20:30 PM
I deleted OAM's blatantly political post, and all responses to it.

As stated previously, please keep this thread clear of that stuff.  There are other places to discuss it.

Thank You For Your Support
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 21, 2020, 06:34:16 AM
I kinda liked my response to it, but I get it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 21, 2020, 08:32:51 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 21, 2020, 06:34:16 AM
I kinda liked my response to it, but I get it.
Same here bud.  But when you're cutting out cancer, sometimes some healthy cells go with it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 21, 2020, 08:35:24 AM
Georgia remains fairly flat in all indications, not flat at a great level, but better than in June.

I think personal actions are "flat" as well.  We had dinner last night at our French restaurant dining on the patio, it was wonderful.  Our waiter has a very pregnant wife so we mask up when he comes by.  I worry a bit about his contact with diners, but most diners respect distance that I've seen.

The son of the owners chatted with us about how to heat the patio to allow outside dining next month.  The other good news is the place was near full, the parking lot was packed.  We're hoping they can survive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 21, 2020, 08:46:50 AM
Man, I think I've mentioned my friend who's an expat in the Czech Republic.  A couple of months ago back in June/July, he was posting to social media, pictures of himself and his partner, going to pubs and restaurants all over their town of Brno, with themselves and all other bystanders completely maskless, both outside and inside.  When asked by our mutual American friends why, he said that they'd already beaten the virus back in Feb/March and life was back to completely normal.

Now that numbers are climbing all over Europe, I thought about what my expat friend had said, and wondered how the Czechs were weathering the storm.  I just took a look at their COVID numbers on Worldometers, and wow, they're really getting hammered.  But the unusual thing, is that unlike their European neighbors who are suffering high case counts but relatively low death totals, the Czechs' death totals are also increasing dramatically.  At this point, they're well above their spring peaks, in both cases and deaths.

I can speculate that their cases are increasing for similar reasons to the rest of Europe, but what I don't understand, is why their death totals have seen a larger increase than most other Euro countries.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/czech-republic/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/czech-republic/)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 21, 2020, 08:48:48 AM
What is their health care system like?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 21, 2020, 08:51:12 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 21, 2020, 08:48:48 AM
What is their health care system like?

I really have no idea.  They're a fairly progressive country like most of the rest of Europe, but their time behind the iron curtain decades ago, might still have an impact on them.

Oh, and I'll also note that Czech's numbers are still quite small in absolute terms, even normalizing for population.  But I was just looking at the relative difference between how the first wave hit them, compared to how the second wave is manifesting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 21, 2020, 09:40:35 AM
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/21/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html


A bleak prediction of the future, but my question is why the article basically talks about how Europe reacted better than we did with shut downs when they are doing worse now.

I don't get it.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Spain plus France plus UK reported well over 100,000 new cases yesterday,  the US 62,000.  If "we" point to the US as having handled this poorly, fine, but what about Europe?  It's going really bad over there.

Populations France 65 mil, UK, 68 mil, Spain 47 mil, US 327 mil, about half our population together and almost double the newly reported cases, but they are held out as paragons?



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 21, 2020, 10:13:58 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 21, 2020, 09:40:35 AM
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/21/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html


A bleak prediction of the future, but my question is why the article basically talks about how Europe reacted better than we did with shut downs when they are doing worse now.

I don't get it.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Spain plus France plus UK reported well over 100,000 new cases yesterday,  the US 62,000.  If "we" point to the US as having handled this poorly, fine, but what about Europe?  It's going really bad over there.

Populations France 65 mil, UK, 68 mil, Spain 47 mil, US 327 mil, about half our population together and almost double the newly reported cases, but they are held out as paragons?





As we noted way back at the beginning of all of this in March, for an appropriate comparison, you can't measure the US against any single country in Europe. 

The combined populations of UK, France, Spain, Germany, and Italy, are roughly the same as the USA.  It's also more representative from a land area perspective, and additionally, the different ways in which those countries chose to approach the pandemic, is more analogous to the different ways the individual states approached it here in the USA.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 21, 2020, 10:20:15 AM
Bottom line, the area under the curve is going to remain the same.  The steps we take to reduce transmission are delaying tactics, nothing more and nothing less.  Europe didn't exhaust their area under the curve in the first wave, and it's back.  There's just no stopping it, the science of the virology is inevitable.

There is value in those delaying tactics though, especially if we can manage to produce an effective vaccine that moves us closer to herd immunity and actually diminishes the area under the curve.

But if no effective vaccine is produced, then the area under the curve remains the same, and the world can't sustain the same level of shut-down as it currently is, forever.  Beyond the devastating economic implications, the much longer-term aspects of mental health, productive education, and dozens of other factors, dictate that we'll end up doing more harm than good, with continued shutdowns/distancing.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 21, 2020, 10:23:12 AM
Quote from: utee94 on October 21, 2020, 10:13:58 AM
The combined populations of UK, France, Spain, Germany, and Italy, are roughly the same as the USA.  It's also more representative from a land area perspective, and additionally, the different ways in which those countries chose to approach the pandemic, is more analogous to the different ways the individual states approached it here in the USA.
Good points, and I somewhat cherry picked the three worst countries in my post, which I hate doing, my bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 21, 2020, 10:24:52 AM
We might see the first use of a vaccine in December

https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/health/2020/10/20/moderna-eyes-december-for-coronavirus-vaccine-s-emergency-authorization
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 21, 2020, 10:26:39 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 21, 2020, 10:23:12 AM
Good points, and I somewhat cherry picked the three worst countries in my post, which I hate doing, my bad.
Sure, but even though Germany did well in the first wave, and Italy was more tightly buttoned up than its neighbors for a while through the summer break, both of those countries are now experiencing significant second waves.  Adding them into the totals causes their case numbers to increase further.

And THAT is the appropriate comparison, if you're trying to use raw numbers to compare the USA to Europe.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 21, 2020, 10:45:19 AM
I expect selected targeted vaccine use in December, health care and other critical workers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 21, 2020, 10:55:10 AM
might have to wait a little longer if you live in California

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/newsom-california-coronavirus-vaccine-independent-review
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 21, 2020, 10:57:31 AM
Quote from: utee94 on October 21, 2020, 10:20:15 AM
Bottom line, the area under the curve is going to remain the same.  The steps we take to reduce transmission are delaying tactics, nothing more and nothing less.  Europe didn't exhaust their area under the curve in the first wave, and it's back.  There's just no stopping it, the science of the virology is inevitable.

There is value in those delaying tactics though, especially if we can manage to produce an effective vaccine that moves us closer to herd immunity and actually diminishes the area under the curve.

But if no effective vaccine is produced, then the area under the curve remains the same, and the world can't sustain the same level of shut-down as it currently is, forever.  Beyond the devastating economic implications, the much longer-term aspects of mental health, productive education, and dozens of other factors, dictate that we'll end up doing more harm than good, with continued shutdowns/distancing.
Yes, lockdowns are incapable of completely shutting down this virus. It's too transmissible that any enforceable lockdown (i.e. not declaring martial law and shooting anyone caught outside their home without authorization) could not get the R0 numbers down to a level where the virus would completely be eradicated. 

But IMHO the value in trying to delay and mitigate the spread as much as possible in the hopes that we do get a vaccine, and it seems promising so far, is significant. People who suggest "we should seek natural herd immunity" IMHO don't realize that the death toll of doing that would be massive. 

If there will never be an effective vaccine, then our best bet is to try to reach herd immunity naturally, but slowly enough that we don't overwhelm the healthcare system and people are dying due to lack of access to treatment. But natural herd immunity should be the fallback when we find out everything else has failed. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 21, 2020, 11:03:42 AM
Quote from: utee94 on October 20, 2020, 10:20:30 PM
I deleted OAM's blatantly political post, and all responses to it.

As stated previously, please keep this thread clear of that stuff.  There are other places to discuss it.

Thank You For Your Support
Leave the post and delete OAM
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 21, 2020, 11:03:58 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 21, 2020, 10:57:31 AM
Yes, lockdowns are incapable of completely shutting down this virus. It's too transmissible that any enforceable lockdown (i.e. not declaring martial law and shooting anyone caught outside their home without authorization) could not get the R0 numbers down to a level where the virus would completely be eradicated.

But IMHO the value in trying to delay and mitigate the spread as much as possible in the hopes that we do get a vaccine, and it seems promising so far, is significant. People who suggest "we should seek natural herd immunity" IMHO don't realize that the death toll of doing that would be massive.

If there will never be an effective vaccine, then our best bet is to try to reach herd immunity naturally, but slowly enough that we don't overwhelm the healthcare system and people are dying due to lack of access to treatment. But natural herd immunity should be the fallback when we find out everything else has failed.
I agree with all of this-- I just think we're fast approaching the end of the line on how long we can continue our delaying tactics.  We clearly can't wait the 2-3 years a normal vaccine takes to produce.   We're almost 8 months into this for most of the country, and 9-10 months into it for the parts of the world that were hit hardest, early.  Anything beyond a year, any projections of lockdowns beyond next spring, are a complete no-go.

So we have 4-5 months to produce and distribute an effective vaccine.  That's about it, really.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 21, 2020, 11:11:01 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 21, 2020, 09:40:35 AM
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/21/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html


A bleak prediction of the future, but my question is why the article basically talks about how Europe reacted better than we did with shut downs when they are doing worse now.

I don't get it.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Spain plus France plus UK reported well over 100,000 new cases yesterday,  the US 62,000.  If "we" point to the US as having handled this poorly, fine, but what about Europe?  It's going really bad over there.

Populations France 65 mil, UK, 68 mil, Spain 47 mil, US 327 mil, about half our population together and almost double the newly reported cases, but they are held out as paragons?




Consider the source of the article?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 21, 2020, 12:57:48 PM
Some good thoughts in this thread, including the hypothesis that it is mutating slightly into variations that drift to more potent, and less potent, over time.

I think "we" are taking sensible precautions here now, I can't think of anything else I would suggest doing.  This state at least is holding the line for now, that could easily rise of course in a week or so, which worries me.  Holidays may send the numbers up, one contagious person in a group of 20 ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 21, 2020, 01:12:42 PM
I worry that FL could blow up when half of its residents re-invade soon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 21, 2020, 02:17:23 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 21, 2020, 11:03:58 AM
I agree with all of this-- I just think we're fast approaching the end of the line on how long we can continue our delaying tactics.  We clearly can't wait the 2-3 years a normal vaccine takes to produce.  We're almost 8 months into this for most of the country, and 9-10 months into it for the parts of the world that were hit hardest, early.  Anything beyond a year, any projections of lockdowns beyond next spring, are a complete no-go.

So we have 4-5 months to produce and distribute an effective vaccine.  That's about it, really.
Bear in mind that our current "lockdowns" are nothing even remotely like what we saw in March/April/June. Even here in a place like California where we're probably more restrictive than most. 

And if there is a major weather-related spike, it might actually move the numbers enough to reawaken people that this isn't going away and they need to be more vigilant.

But I agree, if we don't have a vaccine by the spring, people are just going to give up on most of their behavior modification. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 21, 2020, 03:36:06 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 21, 2020, 02:17:23 PM
Bear in mind that our current "lockdowns" are nothing even remotely like what we saw in March/April/June. Even here in a place like California where we're probably more restrictive than most.

And if there is a major weather-related spike, it might actually move the numbers enough to reawaken people that this isn't going away and they need to be more vigilant.

But I agree, if we don't have a vaccine by the spring, people are just going to give up on most of their behavior modification.
Sure, but on the other hand, it's still heavily restricted compared to normal times.

People might be able to make it through winter.  Maybe.  There's no way the majority can do it once spring comes around. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 21, 2020, 04:43:26 PM
We walked over four miles today, nearly everyone is being "sensible", the Beltline was pretty crowded for a week day.  We went to Ponce City Market, the repurposed old Sears building that was revived successfully, and it was fairly depressing, a lot of places had closed down.  More than half were still there, so there is some good news.  It was somewhat busy, again, weekdays are usually light there, weekends back before C were crowded.

Two larger restaurants were permanently closed.  I hate the disruption this has caused.  This had been a popular kind of cool place.

https://poncecitymarket.com/

(https://i.imgur.com/IVRIl5G.png)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 21, 2020, 04:57:18 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 21, 2020, 04:43:26 PM
We walked over four miles today, nearly everyone is being "sensible", the Beltline was pretty crowded for a week day.  We went to Ponce City Market, the repurposed old Sears building that was revived successfully, and it was fairly depressing, a lot of places had closed down.  More than half were still there, so there is some good news.  It was somewhat busy, again, weekdays are usually light there, weekends back before C were crowded.

Two larger restaurants were permanently closed.  I hate the disruption this has caused.  This had been a popular kind of cool place.

https://poncecitymarket.com/

(https://i.imgur.com/IVRIl5G.png)


This is the biggest problem we have right now, in my mind.

The Illinois governor just locked down bars and restaurants in several counties again today. Some of them have already announced permanent closure.

ALREADY.

No indoor dining = no customers. It's too cold to sit outside now, so those owners are screwed, along their employees and suppliers.

We need to learn to live with this thing and not let the cure be worse than the cause. It's depressing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 21, 2020, 05:00:54 PM
Yeah, it's still quite warm here of course, but cold is coming.  Some places have plastic curtains they drop around the patios and heat the insides.

We're doing what we can.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 21, 2020, 05:20:53 PM
A huge number of restaurants in Austin have patios, outdoor dining is the norm, so that helps.  And almost anyone with outdoor dining, has outdoor heaters and plastic screening to improve warmth, which covers everything but the very coldest few days in the heart of winter.  Honestly, here, the summer is worse than the Fall/Winter/Spring for outdoor dining, because there's just no good way to cool off a patio when it's 105 degrees outside. 

But the bars-- they're pretty much toast.  Back in June, the local fishwrap published a story that 90% of bars would be permanently closed by the end of the year, if restrictions remained in place.  I'd say we're about halfway there, with no realistic end in sight.  25 or 50% capacity just isn't going to cut it for them.  And the large festivals like ACL Fest in October, and SXSW that was canceled last March, drive a ton of their revenue.  In a business where margins are thin, some places can ONLY turn an annual profit based on income they get from those two weeks.  Sort of the way retail stores are pretty much in the red all year, and make their annual profits at Christmas.

This is all going to get much, much worse, as the chain reaction begins with businesses failing and laying off employees, who can't pay rent and bills, so their landlords and creditors have no income, and fail, and default on their loans and credit lines, and layoff employees, who can't pay rent...

And none of that is counting the tremendous shortfall in local city/county/tax revenue that's going to cause governments to fail starting in the New Year.

The ugliness hasn't even begun.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 21, 2020, 05:41:36 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 21, 2020, 04:57:18 PM
This is the biggest problem we have right now, in my mind.

The Illinois governor just locked down bars and restaurants in several counties again today. Some of them have already announced permanent closure.

ALREADY.

No indoor dining = no customers. It's too cold to sit outside now, so those owners are screwed, along their employees and suppliers.

We need to learn to live with this thing and not let the cure be worse than the cause. It's depressing.
Quote from: utee94 on October 21, 2020, 05:20:53 PM
A huge number of restaurants in Austin have patios, outdoor dining is the norm, so that helps.  And almost anyone with outdoor dining, has outdoor heaters and plastic screening to improve warmth, which covers everything but the very coldest few days in the heart of winter.  Honestly, here, the summer is worse than the Fall/Winter/Spring for outdoor dining, because there's just no good way to cool off a patio when it's 105 degrees outside. 

But the bars-- they're pretty much toast.  Back in June, the local fishwrap published a story that 90% of bars would be permanently closed by the end of the year, if restrictions remained in place.  I'd say we're about halfway there, with no realistic end in sight.  25 or 50% capacity just isn't going to cut it for them.  And the large festivals like ACL Fest in October, and SXSW that was canceled last March, drive a ton of their revenue.  In a business where margins are thin, some places can ONLY turn an annual profit based on income they get from those two weeks.  Sort of the way retail stores are pretty much in the red all year, and make their annual profits at Christmas.
But there's an important key to remember. The fact that restaurants or bars CAN be open doesn't mean that they're going to get customers showing up. 

Bars and restaurants base their ability to stay afloat partially on a certain occupancy level, and even if every state and locality completely eliminated their restrictions, I would guess that those bars and restaurants wouldn't hit those occupancy levels because people are trying to be safe. 

Here in California, I don't care whether they open up indoor dining or not; I have no intent on going to eat indoor in a restaurant. A few weeks back I had a day off so my wife took a day off and we did a Friday date lunch. The restaurant said when she made the reservation that they couldn't guarantee outdoor seating, and my wife told them "that's fine but if there aren't tables outside when we get there we'll go somewhere else." 

A lot of people are like us; they aren't going for indoor dining anywhere. A lot of people may go for indoor dining, but are trying to keep their nights dining out to a minimum or only for very special occasion due to the risk. A lot of people who may have paired indoor dining with other date events (movies, concerts, theater) don't have those other events to go to, so they're not going to go to a restaurant. 

None of this requires that people stay home 100% of the time, but if every person that normally would go out X amount of times per month are only going out to eat 25% of X per month, it kills the restaurants anyway. 

As I've said before, this is going to be a shit sandwich for restaurants and bars regardless of what we do regarding government-mandated lockdowns or occupancy limits. Because I believe that enough people are changing their behavior voluntarily that many of them will go under regardless of what the government says. It'll be blamed on lockdowns, of course. But that doesn't mean that they would have been full if there were no lockdowns in the middle of a pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 21, 2020, 06:23:08 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 21, 2020, 05:41:36 PM
But there's an important key to remember. The fact that restaurants or bars CAN be open doesn't mean that they're going to get customers showing up.

Bars and restaurants base their ability to stay afloat partially on a certain occupancy level, and even if every state and locality completely eliminated their restrictions, I would guess that those bars and restaurants wouldn't hit those occupancy levels because people are trying to be safe.

Here in California, I don't care whether they open up indoor dining or not; I have no intent on going to eat indoor in a restaurant. A few weeks back I had a day off so my wife took a day off and we did a Friday date lunch. The restaurant said when she made the reservation that they couldn't guarantee outdoor seating, and my wife told them "that's fine but if there aren't tables outside when we get there we'll go somewhere else."

A lot of people are like us; they aren't going for indoor dining anywhere. A lot of people may go for indoor dining, but are trying to keep their nights dining out to a minimum or only for very special occasion due to the risk. A lot of people who may have paired indoor dining with other date events (movies, concerts, theater) don't have those other events to go to, so they're not going to go to a restaurant.

None of this requires that people stay home 100% of the time, but if every person that normally would go out X amount of times per month are only going out to eat 25% of X per month, it kills the restaurants anyway.

As I've said before, this is going to be a shit sandwich for restaurants and bars regardless of what we do regarding government-mandated lockdowns or occupancy limits. Because I believe that enough people are changing their behavior voluntarily that many of them will go under regardless of what the government says. It'll be blamed on lockdowns, of course. But that doesn't mean that they would have been full if there were no lockdowns in the middle of a pandemic.

I think our June/July spike in Texas proves that if the bars are allowed to reopen, they'll be well patronized.

Is that a good idea?  I won't comment.  But it's already been proven out once, about 3 months ago.

Perhaps we should be focusing our efforts on mandating improved ventilation/filtration for indoor venues.  And then reassuring the public that they're safer than they were before.

And also reassure the public that outdoor spread is minimal under most conditions, and that outdoor venues are pretty safe, to remove some of the misinformation and disinformation that's been spreading and causing FUD over the past 9 months.

I'm not exaggerating when I say, this will be over-- COMPLETELY OVER-- one way or another, when Spring rolls around.  So if public safety is truly a concern, then steps in the right direction are warranted.  Insisting that gatherings > 10 people are not allowed, won't fly forever.  It's barely flying right now.  And all the rest of the measures. 

Mask mandates I think can remain in place for a longer period of time, but again, wearing a mask whilst in a bar or restaurant consuming, isn't really possible or realistic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 21, 2020, 06:52:26 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 21, 2020, 06:23:08 PM
I think our June/July spike in Texas proves that if the bars are allowed to reopen, they'll be well patronized.

Is that a good idea?  I won't comment.  But it's already been proven out once, about 3 months ago.
Well if the answer is massive spikes in cases and then deaths... I'm not sure it's the answer anyone actually wants.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 21, 2020, 07:36:34 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 21, 2020, 06:52:26 PM
Well if the answer is massive spikes in cases and then deaths... I'm not sure it's the answer anyone actually wants.
Right... this is my point.  There is no actual, viable solution, short of an effective vaccine available almost immediately. 

And yet, this is the reality we face.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 21, 2020, 07:51:51 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 21, 2020, 07:36:34 PM
Right... this is my point.  There is no actual, viable solution, short of an effective vaccine available almost immediately.

And yet, this is the reality we face.
Exactly. There is no actual, viable solution unless we have a vaccine. It's just a question of the least bad strategy. 

Full reopening can have two results:


Either way it sucks for someone.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 21, 2020, 07:56:48 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 21, 2020, 07:51:51 PM
Exactly. There is no actual, viable solution unless we have a vaccine. It's just a question of the least bad strategy.

Full reopening can have two results:

  • People assume that if the government opens things, it must be safe, so they go back to normal... Which results in giant spikes in cases and deaths.
  • People continue to moderate their behavior despite openings, and so cases and deaths don't spike, but the restauarants/bars suffer.

Either way it sucks for someone.


There's going to be no stopping the reopenings come Spring (and possibly sooner), so I'm hopeful an effective vaccine can be found and distributed before then.

I'm hopeful, but as I've stated before, I'm not expecting it.

Which is why I'm suggesting focusing on other strategies, such as improving the ventilation/filtration at existing indoor venues, and also discontinuing the misinoformation/disinformation campaigns about how likely the virus is to transmit outdoors in the wide open-- spoiler alert, this is not a major threat vector, and the world governments need to halt and reverse the FUD campaigns they've had in place since March.

We're going to have to consider and implement strategies like the above, unless we get the miracle cure between now and April.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 22, 2020, 05:19:13 AM
Yesterday, for the first time since this whole thing began, I actually got in my car and drove to Orlando( 2 1/2 hours) for some business meetings over lunch and then again during happy hour.

First of all I have to be honest and say that it felt really great to have social contact with human beings again face-to-face.  I wasn’t expecting this so perhaps I underestimated just how lonely we can get without face-to-face contact.

The places I went to were well run with everybody that works there wearing a mask, all customers wear a mask walking in, walking out, and walking around to use the restrooms. Touchless menus and very distant tables were also implemented.  There were hand soaps and masks available for anyone who did not happen to bring it.

I felt like it was pretty good balance between letting the business be run, letting people move about but move about smartly using all realistic precautions.    I’m not sure outside of a lockdown, what else you could do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 22, 2020, 06:45:20 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 22, 2020, 05:19:13 AM
Yesterday, for the first time since this whole thing began, I actually got in my car and drove to Orlando( 2 1/2 hours) for some business meetings over lunch and then again during happy hour.

First of all I have to be honest and say that it felt really great to have social contact with human beings again face-to-face.  I wasn’t expecting this so perhaps I underestimated just how lonely we can get without face-to-face contact.

The places I went to were well run with everybody that works there wearing a mask, all customers wear a mask walking in, walking out, and walking around to use the restrooms. Touchless menus and very distant tables were also implemented.  There were hand soaps and masks available for anyone who did not happen to bring it.

I felt like it was pretty good balance between letting the business be run, letting people move about but move about smartly using all realistic precautions.    I’m not sure outside of a lockdown, what else you could do.
I have definitely found this too. Like some of those simple normalcy‘s just don’t quite hit until you do them again.

and I agree about the restaurants. Maybe it’s just that I really like restaurants.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 22, 2020, 06:51:04 AM
I don't like mandates. Let people decide.

We've eaten inside a couple of times and felt very safe. I don't have a deep desire to go to a bar, but I never really have.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 22, 2020, 08:41:52 AM
I miss going to bars.  It's not something I do weekly, but once a month for sure.

Fortunately the breweries I like all have large outdoor biergartens, and they also all serve enough food to NOT be considered a bar, so they reopened when restaurants did.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 22, 2020, 08:57:29 AM
We go to this place on some weekends, as they have outdoor seating and entertainment. It's in our development, which has zero cases. We're gated, so not a lot of people come in from outside (it's a pain in the ass).

So, we feel comfortable there.

https://casscayrestaurant.com/index.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 22, 2020, 09:05:57 AM
The Sweetwater brewery here has a very nice outside area and they can open large doors to expose the inside as well.  And they have some good beer and decent bar food.

Might go for lunch.  This is just off I-85 northeast of the I-75 interchange, about 3 miles north of us.

https://www.sweetwaterbrew.com/

(https://i.imgur.com/h0D1bzp.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 22, 2020, 09:36:14 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 22, 2020, 08:57:29 AM
We go to this place on some weekends, as they have outdoor seating and entertainment. It's in our development, which has zero cases. We're gated, so not a lot of people come in from outside (it's a pain in the ass).

So, we feel comfortable there.

https://casscayrestaurant.com/index.html

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 22, 2020, 09:05:57 AM
The Sweetwater brewery here has a very nice outside area and they can open large doors to expose the inside as well.  And they have some good beer and decent bar food.

Might go for lunch.  This is just off I-85 northeast of the I-75 interchange, about 3 miles north of us.

https://www.sweetwaterbrew.com/

(https://i.imgur.com/h0D1bzp.png)

Yup, I go to outdoor places all the time.  Our normal routine has always been eating out on Friday nights, and once restaurants reopened for outdoor dining here back in May, we resumed that practice.  So I'm eating at breweries/restaurants, outdoors, at least once per week and sometimes twice in a weekend, since May.  No issues.

There's just not much of a threat of outdoor transmission.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 22, 2020, 09:37:38 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 22, 2020, 06:51:04 AM
I don't like mandates. Let people decide.

We've eaten inside a couple of times and felt very safe. I don't have a deep desire to go to a bar, but I never really have.
I think there's a certain psychology to a mandate, even if it's toothless for the most part.

Then again, some of our county bars are full up on college kids packed together. It's not ideal 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 22, 2020, 09:50:27 AM
I think leaders can ENCOURAGE consistently sensible behavior without some unenforceable mandate.

The police have other things to do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 22, 2020, 09:51:25 AM
Support local. That's great. We need more people to do it.

https://madison.com/ct/entertainment/dining/this-is-going-to-be-a-long-haul-local-taverns-close-for-the-winter/article_632221d0-b98b-5d80-8f70-50d0a8efe209.html#tracking-source=home-top-story-1
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 22, 2020, 09:59:02 AM
some vaccine news

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/10/21/covid-vaccine-alex-azar-cdc-hhs-timeline/3720278001/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 22, 2020, 10:02:06 AM
more vaccine news

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-21/astrazeneca-dips-on-report-of-brazil-death-in-vaccine-trial
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 22, 2020, 10:07:36 AM
I read somewhere the person who died was on placebo, a control.

Shares of AstraZeneca (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=AZN-GB) were steady in Thursday’s premarket trading, one day after closing lower on news that a Covid-19 vaccine trial volunteer in Brazil died. (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/21/astrazeneca-shares-slide-after-brazilian-health-authority-says-volunteer-in-covid-vaccine-study-dies.html) The University of Oxford, which is developing the vaccine with AstraZeneca, said “there have been no concerns about safety of the clinical trial.” A source familiar with the situation told Reuters that the trial would have been suspended if the volunteer had been a part of the group getting the shot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 22, 2020, 10:28:00 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 22, 2020, 10:07:36 AM
I read somewhere the person who died was on placebo, a control.

Shares of AstraZeneca (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=AZN-GB) were steady in Thursday’s premarket trading, one day after closing lower on news that a Covid-19 vaccine trial volunteer in Brazil died. (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/21/astrazeneca-shares-slide-after-brazilian-health-authority-says-volunteer-in-covid-vaccine-study-dies.html) The University of Oxford, which is developing the vaccine with AstraZeneca, said “there have been no concerns about safety of the clinical trial.” A source familiar with the situation told Reuters that the trial would have been suspended if the volunteer had been a part of the group getting the shot.
that was my second post above
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 22, 2020, 11:13:48 AM
Quote from: utee94 on October 22, 2020, 09:36:14 AM
There's just not much of a threat of outdoor transmission.


yet with many folks wearing masks and eating/drinking outdoors instead of indoors we are seeing a major increase in cases and hospitalizations  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 22, 2020, 11:22:33 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 22, 2020, 11:13:48 AM
yet with many folks wearing masks and eating/drinking outdoors instead of indoors we are seeing a major increase in cases and hospitalizations 
There's no evidence to link the two.

I can't speak for where you are, but down here I see many people eating indoors, and with groups that aren't their own families.  Our neighbors (empty nesters in their 50s) caught it two months ago from having indoor dinner at a restaurant with some "dear friends"-- a restaurant that was restricted to 50% capacity.

Of all the people I know who've caught it, and that is numbering double digits now, it has always occurred indoors, in cases where people are maskless and in close proximity for >30 minutes.  Restaurants, church, family gatherings.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 22, 2020, 11:23:35 AM
Saw my doc yesterday about my shoulders, got what I wanted.  Cortisone shot on the right and asking my insurance company for an MRI on the left.

asked him about the virus....  this office is doing about 50 tests a day with the contact tracing

he thinks the increase is due to fatigue.  people are tired of not being out in the community living their lives.  Even the elderly that are at risk.  People have decided they are going to risk it.  Feeling a bit safe wearing a mask.  

I asked him about school/younger kids being a cause of the spread.  He said kids at school are not spreading the virus.  He said anyone that is asymptomatic is not spreading the virus.

It's being spread by people that have symptoms and are sick.

highs in the 30s here for the next week with 3 inches of snow on Sunday.  People are going back inside.  I don't see this getting better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 22, 2020, 11:24:57 AM
yes utee,

The doc said many are coming from Weddings and funerals

large family gatherings, many are inside
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 22, 2020, 11:47:20 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 22, 2020, 11:23:35 AM
He said anyone that is asymptomatic is not spreading the virus.

It's being spread by people that have symptoms and are sick.

This bit is counter to what's in the mainstream media, but at this point doctors who've been facing it for months have a pretty good bead on it.  Certainly better than anything reported in our craptastic media.

Quote from: FearlessF on October 22, 2020, 11:24:57 AM
yes utee,

The doc said many are coming from Weddings and funerals

large family gatherings, many are inside

Yup, two of the folks I know got it at an indoor funeral.  I only know of one wedding of people in my circle, is was outdoors and they dropped the invitation list to only immediate family.  That was a month ago, no issues as far as I know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 22, 2020, 11:50:14 AM
Wedding reception that I was invited but didn't attend caused 10 people to get the virus

lucky for me I was in Lincoln drinking in the bars with my brother - not really safe, but obviously safer than the wedding reception
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 22, 2020, 11:56:34 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 22, 2020, 11:50:14 AM
Wedding reception that I was invited but didn't attend caused 10 people to get the virus

lucky for me I was in Lincoln drinking in the bars with my brother - not really safe, but obviously safer than the wedding reception

Who woulda thunk??? :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 22, 2020, 02:18:53 PM
I am thinking about turning the AC back on here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 23, 2020, 08:04:09 AM
Interesting study by UW on HS sports and the Virus.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/education/local_schools/uw-study-high-school-sports-have-not-spread-the-covid-19-coronavirus/article_3b04400a-7651-50df-a2ff-01a71bf4db65.html

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 23, 2020, 08:33:26 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 22, 2020, 11:13:48 AM
yet with many folks wearing masks and eating/drinking outdoors instead of indoors we are seeing a major increase in cases and hospitalizations 
Yeah, so that tells us "many" isn't enough.  This is why every jackass is detrimental to the herd.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 23, 2020, 08:52:40 AM
Unless we see a vaccine, we are all getting this thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 23, 2020, 08:53:21 AM
Every business I've been in here mandates masks, and folks wear them with some exceptions, usually folks wearing them below their noses.

Do you really think the police can go around writing citations for that, or measuring out six feet?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 23, 2020, 08:54:42 AM
IF we vaccinate 70% of the population, including the small to meddium percentage who have already contracted it, R naught would drop well below unity and the virus would magically disappear.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 23, 2020, 09:07:31 AM
vaccine - bring it on!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 23, 2020, 09:08:17 AM
You've probably already had it, FF.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 23, 2020, 09:09:17 AM
I hope so
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 23, 2020, 09:12:04 AM
Really I hope so to but outside of an occasional hang over can't say I've felt bad exept for my back.Because the Food bank decided to go from 15,000 lbs of food to 18,000 every two weeks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 23, 2020, 09:12:22 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 23, 2020, 08:52:40 AM
Unless we see a vaccine, we are all getting this thing.
Yup

So, we're all getting this thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 23, 2020, 09:26:15 AM
Quote from: utee94 on October 23, 2020, 09:12:22 AM
Yup

So, we're all getting this thing.
I have higher hopes for a vaccine than that. I have even higher hopes for knowing how to treat it. The doctors are getting good at this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 23, 2020, 09:27:00 AM
utee

there are at least 3 different vaccine efforts well into phase 3 with no indication of problems

not sure why you remain so pessimistic to a successful vaccine being developed

no its never been done before but hell thats what America is all about
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 23, 2020, 10:09:13 AM
I THINK we'll see early targeted emergency use of a vaccine in December.  I'm talking 1% of the population most exposed.  Maybe hit 15% by end of January, and then so on, perhaps hitting 70% by June.  The concern of course is how long resistance lasts.

I get a pneumonia and flu shot annually now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 23, 2020, 10:13:11 AM
Yep, got a flu shot about a month ago. Can't hurt.

Is there a flu season in South Florida?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 23, 2020, 10:20:08 AM
Yes there is in Florida, and everywhere.

Florida gets a lot of winter visitation.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 23, 2020, 10:44:57 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 23, 2020, 09:26:15 AM
I have higher hopes for a vaccine than that. I have even higher hopes for knowing how to treat it. The doctors are getting good at this.
I dunno, in the last week the 7-day MA for daily deaths started it's trend line up (exactly following the 3-week lag in cases as predicted) and has increased from just over 700/day to now just over 800. All this while yesterday's case count jumped up to be the 4th-highest daily total we've seen this year, right up there with the highest days in July. 

The doctors are a LOT better treating this than they were in March/April, I'll give you that. It remains to be seen whether there's much improvement from where they were in July and August.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 23, 2020, 11:07:52 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 23, 2020, 10:09:13 AM
I get a pneumonia and flu shot annually now.
and shingles?


I didn't know about a pneumonia shot
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 23, 2020, 11:54:57 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 23, 2020, 09:27:00 AM
utee

there are at least 3 different vaccine efforts well into phase 3 with no indication of problems

not sure why you remain so pessimistic to a successful vaccine being developed

no its never been done before but hell thats what America is all about

I think we'll develop several versions of vaccine with side effects minimal enough to be released for human injection.  I don't have much confidence we'll develop one that is effective enough-- that produces enough COVID19-specific antibodies-- to fight this thing off faster than it spreads on its own.

And I also don't have confidence that today's vaccine is going to be effective against tomorrow's mutated version of this novel coronavirus.

The two things I am relatively confident will happen, though, are that the virus will mutate itself into being less lethal, and that eventually this specific virus will recede into the collection of coronaviruses and other microbes that attack humans on an annual basis.  The herd will have developed enough T-cell response that it won't be as damaging as it is now, and eventually we'll be able to say we've moved past it.

But that is all long term, and doesn't help us at all in the short term.  Basically, we're all going to get this virus over the next year,
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 23, 2020, 12:12:29 PM
I know it's a broken record, but I really believe so many more of us have had this than is being reported through testing. My wife, for example. In early March I thought I had the flu. There are many more like me, starting in November.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 23, 2020, 12:40:11 PM
I've now had a cough/respiratory issues since March, which has never happened to me before.  I don't EVER get a cough.  I tested negative for COVID AB in June.  

My seasonal allergies typically kick during October, with ragweed, and again in December, with mountain cedar.  Nothing in March and most certainly nothing that would last 8 months and a cough is never one of my allergy symptoms, anyway.

But who knows?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 23, 2020, 12:55:51 PM
I tested positive for AB in May, and then negative in June. I'm still being very careful, because that positive may have been a false. Tests were relatively new then, if I remember right. And I was down here at that time. Second test was at my normal hospital in Illinois (was the normal anyway).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 23, 2020, 01:00:51 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 23, 2020, 11:54:57 AM
I think we'll develop several versions of vaccine with side effects minimal enough to be released for human injection.  I don't have much confidence we'll develop one that is effective enough-- that produces enough COVID19-specific antibodies-- to fight this thing off faster than it spreads on its own.

And I also don't have confidence that today's vaccine is going to be effective against tomorrow's mutated version of this novel coronavirus.

The two things I am relatively confident will happen, though, are that the virus will mutate itself into being less lethal, and that eventually this specific virus will recede into the collection of coronaviruses and other microbes that attack humans on an annual basis.  The herd will have developed enough T-cell response that it won't be as damaging as it is now, and eventually we'll be able to say we've moved past it.

But that is all long term, and doesn't help us at all in the short term.  Basically, we're all going to get this virus over the next year,
wow what a downer
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 23, 2020, 01:14:28 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 23, 2020, 11:07:52 AM
and shingles?
I didn't know about a pneumonia shot
Me either, I had to have a presurgical physical and the doc got me the shot, he said every year once you are over 65.  He didn't really ask me either.  Whatever.

The shingles vaccines (you get 2) are permanent, I hope,  that is the one where I had a pretty bad reaction, it was brief fortunately, but not fun.

Shingles is not good to contract though, I should be good now.

As for how long a vaccine will last, we really don't know, we have T cells, as has been discussed, and you could have some level of resistance even with ABs below detection.

And the AB test can read positive because you had a cold recently, it's not as specific.

Pneumonia is of course a frequent killed of older folks, which I now am.  I just got my first ever SS payment credited to my account.  I was going to wait, but there is so much crap about the SSTF I pulled the trigger.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 23, 2020, 01:44:16 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 23, 2020, 01:00:51 PM
wow what a downer
Not really.  I'm realistic but not depressed or angry about this.

I'm upbeat about it, actually.  We just have to keep the hospitals from being overrun, and by this time next year we'll be pretty much past it.

Honestly, this is a relatively mild virus to demonstrate to us just how unprepared the entire world is for something like this.  When it happens again-- and I'm certain that it will-- we'll be a lot more prepared than we were this time.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 23, 2020, 01:46:35 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 23, 2020, 01:14:28 PM
Me either, I had to have a presurgical physical and the doc got me the shot, he said every year once you are over 65.  He didn't really ask me either.  Whatever.

The shingles vaccines (you get 2) are permanent, I hope,  that is the one where I had a pretty bad reaction, it was brief fortunately, but not fun.

I just got my first ever SS payment credited to my account.  I was going to wait, but there is so much crap about the SSTF I pulled the trigger.

only 58,  why I haven't heard of it

I was going to the bar for wings Wednesday with a few friends, so didn't want to risk a reaction that night

that's my goal, live long enough to cash a SS check!!!  My advisor says I can and should wait until I'm 70, but we'll see.  I'm not confident I'll get to my 70th birthday

                              
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 23, 2020, 01:47:32 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 23, 2020, 01:44:16 PM
Not really.  I'm realistic but not depressed or angry about this.

I'm upbeat about it, actually.  We just have to keep the hospitals from being overrun, and by this time next year we'll be pretty much past it.

Honestly, this is a relatively mild virus to demonstrate to us just how unprepared the entire world is for something like this.  When it happens again-- and I'm certain that it will-- we'll be a lot more prepared than we were this time.



we are all just VERY lucky, this thing mostly only kills the elderly
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 23, 2020, 01:51:40 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 23, 2020, 01:44:16 PM
Honestly, this is a relatively mild virus to demonstrate to us just how unprepared the entire world is for something like this.  When it happens again-- and I'm certain that it will-- we'll be a lot more prepared than we were this time.
Or everyone will say "we overreacted last time, I'm not letting them hoodwink me again!"

Oh yeah, I'm the depressing one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 23, 2020, 02:07:25 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 23, 2020, 01:51:40 PM
Or everyone will say "we overreacted last time, I'm not letting them hoodwink me again!"

Oh yeah, I'm the depressing one.
Yeah, there's that, too.

If the next one is bad enough to get to the "bodies lining the streets" stage, then I think everyone will take notice.

If it's the same as this one, and people decide to go on with their lives, well then I'm not sure that's the incorrect choice, anyway. *shrug*

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 23, 2020, 02:24:21 PM
I never had chicken pox. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 23, 2020, 02:44:18 PM
not me man Ive had them all

mumps, measles, whooping cough, chicken pox

never had the flu though
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 23, 2020, 02:54:57 PM
I had chicken pox in preschool.

Never had the flu, though.

Not sure about the rona.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 23, 2020, 03:02:01 PM
I had chicken pox and then celebrated my 40th birthday with shingles. Luckily I had a very mild case of shingles. 

Not sure if I've ever had the "flu" flu. I've had stomach flu a bunch of times, or maybe it was food poisoning, where I was knocked out vomiting and utterly miserable for ~24 hours, but that's not the same as influenza. 

At this point I'm relatively sure I haven't had the 'rona, even asymptomatic. Between the kids, my wife (who has to go to the office every day and interact with 2 doctors and an MA), her parents, the kids' mom and her extended family, etc, if one of us had had it there would have been at least SOMEONE who caught it with symptoms. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on October 23, 2020, 03:24:23 PM
I had chicken pox in kindergarten. Lost out on a trip to the Como Park Zoo because of it.

I suspect that I had the swine flu around LDW 2009. Fever and headache all week, until some ibuprofen broke the fever Friday morning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 23, 2020, 03:29:02 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 23, 2020, 03:02:01 PM
I had chicken pox and then celebrated my 40th birthday with shingles. Luckily I had a very mild case of shingles.

Not sure if I've ever had the "flu" flu. I've had stomach flu a bunch of times, or maybe it was food poisoning, where I was knocked out vomiting and utterly miserable for ~24 hours, but that's not the same as influenza.

At this point I'm relatively sure I haven't had the 'rona, even asymptomatic. Between the kids, my wife (who has to go to the office every day and interact with 2 doctors and an MA), her parents, the kids' mom and her extended family, etc, if one of us had had it there would have been at least SOMEONE who caught it with symptoms.
Probably, but then again, who knows with this thing?

On the flipside, I'd be surprised if my wife has NOT had it by now.  She works at an outpatient PT clinic, she sees 8-12 patients per day M-F, so 40-60 patient visits per week, up close hands-on for 30-45 minutes per patient, in a clinic that including all patients and staff, has between 16-25 people inside at any given time.  This is not a huge room either.  She's done this for the past 6+ months, including during the time when cases were peaking dramatically here in Texas back in June-July. 

They're all wearing masks, but masks only stop spit.  Breathing next to someone for >20 minutes, indoors, with no additional filtration, is where this thing is spreading the most.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 23, 2020, 03:34:26 PM
The wife and I both got sick in Hawaii three years back.  I'm pretty sure it was influenza, probably from the plane flight.

I had not been that sick in a long time.  Congestion, body ache, coughing, it was bad.  We were in a fancy hotel too.

Most of our kids had come along as well and they stayed well away from us.  The worst of it was about two days and then we were able to at least get up and walk around some.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 23, 2020, 03:47:20 PM
I still remember at the age of 4 lying in bed with the whooping cough and our doctor made a house visit to examine me

Man those days are gone forever 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 23, 2020, 03:58:32 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 23, 2020, 03:29:02 PM
They're all wearing masks, but masks only stop spit.  Breathing next to someone for >20 minutes, indoors, with no additional filtration, is where this thing is spreading the most.
I suspect masks are a lot more effective than we think. 

I haven't been hearing of huge spreading events in most of the areas where masks are the norm. Healthcare workers haven't seemed to gotten slammed with this. Hairstylists, nail techs, etc likewise I'm not hearing that it's a huge problem. 

Generally where do we hear about big spreading events? People congregating with family or friends without masks. Weddings, funerals. I think even the CDC recently said that a lot of the spread was from small, informal gatherings. 

If masks weren't doing much, the people in the service economy would be absolutely hammered, and I haven't heard that being an issue. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 23, 2020, 03:58:51 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 23, 2020, 03:47:20 PM
Man those days are gone forever
Woo science FTW!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 23, 2020, 04:18:52 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 23, 2020, 03:58:32 PM
I suspect masks are a lot more effective than we think.

I haven't been hearing of huge spreading events in most of the areas where masks are the norm. Healthcare workers haven't seemed to gotten slammed with this. Hairstylists, nail techs, etc likewise I'm not hearing that it's a huge problem.

Generally where do we hear about big spreading events? People congregating with family or friends without masks. Weddings, funerals. I think even the CDC recently said that a lot of the spread was from small, informal gatherings.

If masks weren't doing much, the people in the service economy would be absolutely hammered, and I haven't heard that being an issue.

I don't know, maybe?  But I'm not so sure.

My hairdresser caught it and that's when I was contact-traced, back in May.  All masks all the time,.

Waiters have been going down like flies in a hurricane here, since restaurants reopened in May.  So have the staff at the back of the house.  My sister is a server and probably 50% of her friends in the industry have caught it.  She stopped working because she was afraid of catching it.

It's not getting a lot of airtime, because those people tend to be younger and aren't ending up in the hospitals and ICUs.  They catch it, and are either asymptomatic and wait it out, or have mild symptoms and wait it out.  Either way, they're back at work after two weeks.  This has slowed down somewhat in recent months, but I think it's mainly because that population is effectively reaching herd immunity.

It's true that docs and nurses don't seem to be coming down with it at rates I might have otherwise expected, but they also have access to more and better PPE than the average service worker does.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 23, 2020, 04:23:25 PM
Corona party at UTee's!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 23, 2020, 04:24:10 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 23, 2020, 04:23:25 PM
Corona party at UTee's!!
I'm sure I already had it.  Pretty much everyone has. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 23, 2020, 04:46:58 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 23, 2020, 04:18:52 PM
It's true that docs and nurses don't seem to be coming down with it at rates I might have otherwise expected, but they also have access to more and better PPE than the average service worker does.



possibly much better immune systems from that line of work
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 23, 2020, 05:04:02 PM
I think masks are useful, but not perfect by any means for obvious reasons noted above.

This comes down to statistics and even some smaller reductions in transmission routes play out to have large impacts over time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 23, 2020, 05:06:16 PM
Georgia reported 1,785 new cases today, which is well above trend line of 1,200 or so.  That has me a touch worried, but it's one day.

France reported over 42,000, and apparently the rate of increase is not slowing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 23, 2020, 07:12:36 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 23, 2020, 04:18:52 PM
Waiters have been going down like flies in a hurricane here, since restaurants reopened in May.  So have the staff at the back of the house.  My sister is a server and probably 50% of her friends in the industry have caught it.  She stopped working because she was afraid of catching it.

It's not getting a lot of airtime, because those people tend to be younger and aren't ending up in the hospitals and ICUs.  They catch it, and are either asymptomatic and wait it out, or have mild symptoms and wait it out.  Either way, they're back at work after two weeks.  This has slowed down somewhat in recent months, but I think it's mainly because that population is effectively reaching herd immunity.
Now, I don't want to be all "blame the victim" here, but waiters and general restaurant staff are not exactly the most low-risk-tolerance population. If you talk to a lot of those folks there's a lot of late nights, a lot of booze [and other drugs], and generally an "us against the world" sort of fraternity that comes from their messed up hours and working conditions.

On top of it, waiters are kinda in the worst boat. The mask mostly protects other from you, rather than you from others. What happens as soon as someone sits down at a restaurant table? The mask comes off. So the patrons are mostly protected from the wait staff, while the wait staff aren't protected from the patrons. In many other situations (hair salon, nails, most healthcare interactions) the mask wearing is symmetrical. In the case of restaurants, it is not. (Personally I do my best to sorta cover my mouth and turn my head and not speak directly into the face of a server on those few occasions we've gone out.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 23, 2020, 07:25:32 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 23, 2020, 05:06:16 PM
Georgia reported 1,785 new cases today, which is well above trend line of 1,200 or so.  That has me a touch worried, but it's one day.

France reported over 42,000, and apparently the rate of increase is not slowing.
1785 yesterday, and over 2000 today... https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us

That said, your case counts don't appear so far to be going up any sort of exponential path like some other states, just a very slow increase each day. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on October 23, 2020, 07:27:33 PM
My oldest daughter just got put on quarantine due to contact at school, and the school is reducing from full time to part time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 23, 2020, 07:49:38 PM
We're all gonna get it Max. I will offer hope for your kid, no doubt. I offer hope for everyone.

And I offer hope for a cure or vaccine. We'll get there. 

WE ARE THE USA!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on October 23, 2020, 08:21:18 PM
I did get H1N1.   Worst feelings of my life, felt paralyzed, had no strength.  Lost 20lbs. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 23, 2020, 10:29:26 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 23, 2020, 07:49:38 PM
We're all gonna get it Max. I will offer hope for your kid, no doubt. I offer hope for everyone.

And I offer hope for a cure or vaccine. We'll get there.

WE ARE THE USA!!!
1 dead French person from Covid = 1 dead American person from Covid

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 23, 2020, 10:50:32 PM
people all over the world are suffering from this virus

I'm starting to think that even if China and the Who did everything they could to warn the rest of the world, it would still take it's toll.  very similar to what has happened to this point.

politicians, policies, masks, aren't capable of stopping this virus
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 24, 2020, 07:40:46 AM
The original plan was to spread it out over time so hospitals would not get overrun.  That morphed somehow into preventing it, which is not possible.

The US has done reportedly more tests per capita than just about anybody, and still it's not enough.  The northeast still has the most overall deaths per capita followed by LA.  

I have some criticism of how the US handled this early on, but that same criticism applies as well to places like Italy, France, Spain, the UK etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 24, 2020, 09:01:16 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 24, 2020, 07:40:46 AM
The original plan was to spread it out over time so hospitals would not get overrun.  That morphed somehow into preventing it, which is not possible.

The US has done reportedly more tests per capita than just about anybody, and still it's not enough.  The northeast still has the most overall deaths per capita followed by LA. 

I have some criticism of how the US handled this early on, but that same criticism applies as well to places like Italy, France, Spain, the UK etc.
I would call it suggestions for next time instead of criticism

If youre facing something never experienced before youre gonna make mistakes

we need to learn from these mistakes
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 24, 2020, 09:17:13 AM
When we do go out to eat, we wear our masks in and out, and when moving about the place. When the wait staff comes to the table, we put our masks on. It's the right thing to do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 24, 2020, 09:35:48 AM
Yeah, our waiter at Atmosphere has a very pregnant wife.  We mask up any time a server comes by.

One place here the servers will not approach unless you are masked.  If you mask up, they see it as a signal you need something.

I'm so used to wearing a mask I hardly notice unless my glasses fog up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 24, 2020, 09:41:12 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 24, 2020, 09:35:48 AM
One place here the servers will not approach unless you are masked.  If you mask up, they see it as a signal you need something.

wish this was happening everywhere

certainly not here
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 24, 2020, 09:52:49 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 24, 2020, 07:40:46 AM
The US has done reportedly more tests per capita than just about anybody, and still it's not enough.  The northeast still has the most overall deaths per capita followed by LA.  .
Amongst populous countries, the UAE, Bahrain, Denmark, Singapore, Hong Kong, Israel and the UK have higher tests/1M rates than the USA. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 24, 2020, 09:53:41 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 24, 2020, 09:35:48 AM

One place here the servers will not approach unless you are masked.  If you mask up, they see it as a signal you need something.
That's a good system. Would love to see that catch on. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 24, 2020, 10:17:24 AM
Another place you go inside to place your order with a sign with a number on it.  Then you find your table and replace the sign, and servers bring your order to you.

They have a nice patio area.  The food is decent, not special really, but OK.  I prefer most of the other spots around.  They have a "sister" restaurant just down the street called "Joe's on Juniper" that caters to gay people (clearly).  We've been there a couple times and the folks are very nice.

(https://i.imgur.com/ebhn7PD.png)(https://i.imgur.com/xiNTJPx.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 25, 2020, 01:18:33 PM
Statewide, 67 nursing homes in Iowa are currently experiencing COVID-19 outbreaks. These outbreaks have been dire, representing 806 of the state's 1,631 deaths, according to the Iowa Department of Public Health.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 25, 2020, 01:33:08 PM
France is showing no sign yet of any leveling off or decrease in the rate of increase in new cases.

I know they have enlightened leadership over there, ostensibly, but they are not handling this well, if the numbers are correct.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 25, 2020, 01:49:09 PM
Newsom sticking his foot in his mouth regarding Thanksgiving "regulations" that he can't enforce:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8877273/Megyn-Kelly-joins-revolt-against-Newsons-Thanksgiving-insanity-requires-families-wear-masks.html

So he's going to piss everyone off and sound like a petty tyrant with regulations on minutiae of what you "can" and "can't" do instead of trying to actually influence and convince people how to be safer. 

So instead of people actually thinking about how to be safe they're just going to dismiss his "regulations" as nanny state BS and we'll probably end up far worse off than if he treated people like thinking citizens. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 25, 2020, 02:30:29 PM
if governors and presidents and other elected officials aren't good leaders, others need to step up to lead
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 25, 2020, 02:54:15 PM
That's a crock o' shit. What a tool.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 25, 2020, 04:11:27 PM
"Can" and "can't" are just replacements for "should" and "shouldn't" for an irresponsible populace.  I don't see the problem - the same people who ignore what they should do are the ones scoffing hardest at being told what they can and can't do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 25, 2020, 04:47:10 PM
the problem is human nature

Newsome is causing more trouble than help

he means well, he just isn't real smart
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 25, 2020, 05:24:34 PM
What's the difference between 'human nature' and 'animal instinct'?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 25, 2020, 05:29:11 PM
humans can reason

animals don't
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 25, 2020, 05:33:41 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 25, 2020, 04:11:27 PM
"Can" and "can't" are just replacements for "should" and "shouldn't" for an irresponsible populace.
The first group refers to actions which are legal and illegal.  That is different from legal actions which may be desirable and undesirable.

I'm against having laws which are unenforceable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 25, 2020, 05:43:03 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 25, 2020, 05:29:11 PM
humans can reason

animals don't
"Crickets",atta boy FF
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 25, 2020, 06:09:34 PM
Depending on what one means by "reason", some animals display considerable aptitude at problem solving, especially the other great apes, and even crows.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 25, 2020, 06:18:05 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on October 25, 2020, 05:43:03 PM
"Crickets",atta boy FF
LMAO.......5 minutes of me doing something else = crickets        

SOOOOO giddy to "get me" that you're embarrassiing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 25, 2020, 06:18:45 PM
France is reporting some 52,000 new cases today.  They have a population of 65 million.

The numbers in Europe are scary, though the good news is that treatment is now better overall and the mortality rate has fallen.  But that is a truly bad figure.  Their peak back in March was under 8,000 per day when they were shutting down.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 25, 2020, 06:19:56 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 25, 2020, 05:33:41 PM
The first group refers to actions which are legal and illegal.  That is different from legal actions which may be desirable and undesirable.
Correct.
An he's facing a populace that largely ignores what they SHOULD do, he's amplifying it up a step in an attempt to get the desired behavior by using CAN'T.  

It's in vain, obviously.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 25, 2020, 06:20:23 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 25, 2020, 06:18:45 PM
France is reporting some 52,000 new cases today.  They have a population of 65 million.

The numbers in Europe are scary, though the good news is that treatment is now better overall and the mortality rate has fallen.  But that is a truly bad figure.  Their peak back in March was under 8,000 per day when they were shutting down.




I'm gonna go out on a limb and say their present is our future AGAIN.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 25, 2020, 06:22:23 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 25, 2020, 05:29:11 PM
humans can reason

animals don't
Correct.

And it's "human nature" to act irrationally.  Animals can't.  Their behavior makes sense - everything they do is to survive and propagate their genes.  

Humans can willfully act against their own self-interest, citing 'freedom.'  We can reason, but it doesn't make us all rational.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on October 25, 2020, 06:35:13 PM
Reported that Mertz has tested positive for CV.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 25, 2020, 06:56:38 PM
possibly a false positive if he's the only Badger
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 25, 2020, 07:57:53 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 25, 2020, 06:09:34 PM
Depending on what one means by "reason", some animals display considerable aptitude at problem solving, especially the other great apes, and even crows.
And many humans don't. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 25, 2020, 08:30:48 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 25, 2020, 06:18:05 PM
LMAO.......5 minutes of me doing something else = crickets       

SOOOOO giddy to "get me" that you're embarrassiing.
His response was at 5:29 ityou reponded at 6:22 - 5 minutes?Ok we'll go with that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 25, 2020, 08:40:05 PM
Are you a child?  No, not literally 5 minutes.  FFS
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on October 25, 2020, 08:53:42 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 25, 2020, 01:49:09 PM
Newsom sticking his foot in his mouth regarding Thanksgiving "regulations" that he can't enforce:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8877273/Megyn-Kelly-joins-revolt-against-Newsons-Thanksgiving-insanity-requires-families-wear-masks.html

So he's going to piss everyone off and sound like a petty tyrant with regulations on minutiae of what you "can" and "can't" do instead of trying to actually influence and convince people how to be safer.

So instead of people actually thinking about how to be safe they're just going to dismiss his "regulations" as nanny state BS and we'll probably end up far worse off than if he treated people like thinking citizens.
I’d love to see if Newsom sticks to his own regulations on Thanksgiving.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Benthere2 on October 25, 2020, 08:54:50 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 25, 2020, 06:56:38 PM
possibly a false positive if he's the only Badger
definitely a false positive  King Barry would never allow the kid to miss a game yet a lone 3 weeks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 25, 2020, 09:02:54 PM
How offensive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 25, 2020, 09:03:56 PM
It's always productive when someone strays from the content of the conversation to attack the poster. 

Once upon a time, it'd get you banned.  But not in the safety of the echo chamber.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 25, 2020, 10:04:25 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on October 25, 2020, 08:53:42 PM
I’d love to see if Newsom sticks to his own regulations on Thanksgiving.
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/p526x296/122752523_2553421781563952_7769766340322933084_o.jpg?_nc_cat=1&ccb=2&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=wOnni0hat9oAX_HPAMO&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&tp=6&oh=551e8485cdcb70515451329eec7ceef7&oe=5FBC144C)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 25, 2020, 10:06:09 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 25, 2020, 10:04:25 PM
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/p526x296/122752523_2553421781563952_7769766340322933084_o.jpg?_nc_cat=1&ccb=2&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=wOnni0hat9oAX_HPAMO&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&tp=6&oh=551e8485cdcb70515451329eec7ceef7&oe=5FBC144C)
😂😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 26, 2020, 07:21:16 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 25, 2020, 06:19:56 PM
An he's facing a populace that largely ignores what they SHOULD do, he's amplifying it up a step in an attempt to get the desired behavior by using CAN'T. 

At least around where I live, the population is not only not ignoring what we should do, they are largely practicing safe walking about.

I don't think making something illegal, especially when it cannot be enforced, would help.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 26, 2020, 07:44:34 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 25, 2020, 06:20:23 PM
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say their present is our future AGAIN. 
Yes, and I do not see a practicable means to stopping this.  Europe has these allegedly enlightened leaders and often a much more centralized government, and yet they have not stopped this rise in case counts.

Criticism of the US "approach" would carry more weight if they were doing a better job in Europe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 26, 2020, 07:59:27 AM
I don't think it's going to be as bad here in the US. By and large, everyone I see is doing what they are supposed to be doing. And none of it involves sitting in a basement. There aren't any basements here anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 26, 2020, 08:03:40 AM
We often follow Europe by 2 weeks or so.  I still don't understand why.  Weather?  Probably not.  School?  Maybe.

Going back to old ways?  Maybe.

A new strain?  Maybe, interesting to expect this perhaps?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Temp430 on October 26, 2020, 08:15:56 AM
A lot of colleges and universities are sending their students home at Thanksgiving to finish the semester there.  We may see a bump in the number of cases the first week of December as a result.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 26, 2020, 08:17:16 AM
I still don't understand the notion that the US has done some horrific job with this when Europe is in such a crisis.  

Some things are not controllable in life.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 26, 2020, 08:52:29 AM
I understand it just fine. It became politicized, unfortunately.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 26, 2020, 08:55:03 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 26, 2020, 08:03:40 AM
We often follow Europe by 2 weeks or so.  I still don't understand why.  Weather?  Probably not.  School?  Maybe.

Going back to old ways?  Maybe.

A new strain?  Maybe, interesting to expect this perhaps?
We'll see about the death counts. I don't think we will be anywhere near as bad as we were in the Spring. Doctors seem more confident than many of "us" are about this thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 26, 2020, 09:01:20 AM
Deaths have perked up some in Europe, but not nearly where they were in April.  The combination of protecting the vulnerable and better treatment has helped of course.

I am curious as to whether the virus continues to morph into perhaps more contagious but less virulent strains.  It is plausible that it has, meaning as some here say, we'll all get it, but it won't be that bad for many of us.

The mortality rates appear to have fallen significantly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 26, 2020, 09:13:07 AM
Yep. And we're all going to get it. Hopefully it's mostly asymptomatic or very mild for everyone.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 26, 2020, 01:37:11 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 26, 2020, 09:01:20 AM
Deaths have perked up some in Europe, but not nearly where they were in April.  The combination of protecting the vulnerable and better treatment has helped of course.

I am curious as to whether the virus continues to morph into perhaps more contagious but less virulent strains.  It is plausible that it has, meaning as some here say, we'll all get it, but it won't be that bad for many of us.

The mortality rates appear to have fallen significantly.

Except in the Czech Republic, which just doesn't seem to be behaving like the large majority of its European counterparts.  I continue to be perplexed.  

All I can think of, is that the deaths were so low and cases were so mild in their first wave, that they just didn't develop any expertise on handling it.  Or, their healthcare system is just atrocious.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 26, 2020, 01:54:45 PM
I think there are a lot of reasons we're seeing a change in the mortality rate:



I don't think we have evidence, at least at this time, that it has mutated to a significantly less deadly strain. I'd love to be wrong on that though. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 26, 2020, 01:56:54 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 26, 2020, 01:54:45 PM
I don't think we have evidence, at least at this time, that it has mutated to a significantly less deadly strain. I'd love to be wrong on that though.
To note we lack evidence is right, so far as I know.  It does seem possible we now have a strain that might be more infectious but less deadly.  Speculative.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on October 26, 2020, 02:01:27 PM
I believe they have discovered various strains, some more lethal than others, though they have all been in circulation for some time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 26, 2020, 02:14:10 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 19, 2020, 02:02:37 PM
Well, I figure virologists who study the DNA sequences and determine strains know something.

They say the G and its variant substrains GH and GR mutated in January and February, respectively. Which, considering that since then they'd grown to 74% of prevalence by August (according to that sciencedaily article), suggests they're FAR more transmissible than the original L strain from Wuhan.

Which of course perfectly fits what we saw. We probably had the L strain in the US by December, but cases initially grew slowly. Which makes sense that it hit San Jose and Seattle, because both areas have huge economic ties to China due to the tech sector. But it didn't spread like wildfire, because it's not as transmissible. Once the G strain hit from Europe, especially having hit densely populated areas like NYC/NJ which have more exposure to Europe than we have on the West Coast, it just exploded.

It probably also [more than masks] explains why so many Asian countries have done well with this. They locked down before G, GR, and GH could really establish themselves. The fact that they instituted containment measures and then already had a mask-friendly culture kept those strains from gaining any foothold whatsoever, while it ravaged Europe and the US because we didn't embrace masks.

Some details on strains.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 26, 2020, 02:40:31 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 26, 2020, 08:17:16 AM
I still don't understand the notion that the US has done some horrific job with this when Europe is in such a crisis. 

Some things are not controllable in life.
Maybe because we hear how great our health system is from people poo-pooing universal care over and over again.  


This just in:  maybe it's not that great.  Maybe it's on par with much of Europe.  Maybe we're not this special, exceptional entity.  How dare I!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 26, 2020, 02:51:26 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 26, 2020, 02:40:31 PM
Maybe because we hear how great our health system is from people poo-pooing universal care over and over again. 


This just in:  maybe it's not that great.  Maybe it's on par with much of Europe.  Maybe we're not this special, exceptional entity.  How dare I!
This has absolutely nothing to do with the virus

You are just taking a shot at those opposing universal health care

take this crap some place else
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 26, 2020, 02:55:09 PM
Obviously, one would think, our health care system is dissociated from how many may contract the disease, except for that part we call our public health system like the CDC etc.

A country with a near perfect health care system might still be clobbered by the disease.

France, for example, has a highly regarded health care system by many measures, and is getting hammered.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 26, 2020, 03:13:49 PM
Ive seen a lot of theories on why this virus spreads like it does but none of them has said its because of our health care system 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 26, 2020, 03:14:52 PM
wash your hands, wear your mask, and horde toilet paper
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 26, 2020, 03:16:20 PM
*hoard

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Temp430 on October 26, 2020, 03:21:04 PM
The UK has universal health care. How are they doing with the virus?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 26, 2020, 03:35:08 PM
Worse than us?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 26, 2020, 03:55:43 PM
Out of 200+ countries tracked by Worldometers, the US is 12th highest in Cases/1M and 10th in Deaths/1M. It is possible to place our high case rate on testing, as we are 19th in Tests/1M. But I don't think you can apply that to deaths. 

Filtering out nations with population <1M people, the US is 8th highest in Cases/1M and 8th in Deaths/1M. Also, oddly enough, 8th in tests/1M. 

So while we can point out other countries that have done worse than us, I don't think anyone can say that we should be patting ourselves on the back for our response. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 26, 2020, 03:55:58 PM
Quote from: Temp430 on October 26, 2020, 03:21:04 PM
The UK has universal health care. How are they doing with the virus? 
The UK has nationalized health care, which is fairly unusual in Europe.  My Brit friends say it sux.

My French cousins like their health care system pretty well.  France of course is suffering with COVID infections at the moment despite that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 26, 2020, 03:57:35 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 26, 2020, 03:16:20 PM
*hoard


I prefer horde...


The Horde is made up of orcs, Forsaken, tauren, trolls, blood elves, goblins, and most recently, pandaren. Misunderstood and cast aside, these diverse and powerful races strive to overcome their differences and unite as one in order to win freedom for their people and prosper in a land that has come to hate them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 26, 2020, 03:57:44 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 26, 2020, 03:55:43 PM
So while we can point out other countries that have done worse than us, I don't think anyone can say that we should be patting ourselves on the back for our response.
I don't think anyone here has done that that I've noticed.  The early tendency to put recovering patients in nursing homes may have elevated our death totals.  The worse states for deaths per million are NJ and NY.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 26, 2020, 03:59:11 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 26, 2020, 03:55:43 PM
So while we can point out other countries that have done worse than us, I don't think anyone can say that we should be patting ourselves on the back for our response.


Only a very few should be patting themselves on the back

Australia, possibly
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 26, 2020, 04:00:28 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 26, 2020, 03:57:44 PM
I don't think anyone here has done that that I've noticed.  The early tendency to put recovering patients in nursing homes may have elevated our death totals.  The worse states for deaths per million are NJ and NY. 
Statewide, 67 nursing homes in Iowa are currently experiencing COVID-19 outbreaks. These outbreaks have been dire, representing 806 of the state's 1,631 deaths, according to the Iowa Department of Public Health.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 26, 2020, 04:04:55 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 26, 2020, 03:59:11 PM
Only a very few should be patting themselves on the back

Australia, possibly
Don't they have to use their left hand to do so, due to the Coriolis Effect? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 26, 2020, 04:06:30 PM
their toilets flush funny

wonder if they have different toilet paper
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 26, 2020, 04:11:30 PM
There is crowing about what a great job we've done in the US - which no one here has attempted - and then there is blaming all of this solely on say our health care system, or something political.

The latter makes no sense to me if you look at France, for example, no sense at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 26, 2020, 04:19:00 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 26, 2020, 03:55:43 PM
Out of 200+ countries tracked by Worldometers, the US is 12th highest in Cases/1M and 10th in Deaths/1M. It is possible to place our high case rate on testing, as we are 19th in Tests/1M. But I don't think you can apply that to deaths.

Filtering out nations with population <1M people, the US is 8th highest in Cases/1M and 8th in Deaths/1M. Also, oddly enough, 8th in tests/1M.

So while we can point out other countries that have done worse than us, I don't think anyone can say that we should be patting ourselves on the back for our response.


Different "states" within the EU have not all performed the same.

Just like here.

I'd like to know how many nursing home deaths we have versus what they have.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 26, 2020, 04:27:57 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 26, 2020, 04:11:30 PM
There is crowing about what a great job we've done in the US - which no one here has attempted - and then there is blaming all of this solely on say our health care system, or something political.

The latter makes no sense to me if you look at France, for example, no sense at all.
those crowing are on one side of the isle and those blaming are on the opposite side.  Neither are correct.  Neither are helping the situation.

asshats, the lot of them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 26, 2020, 04:28:56 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 26, 2020, 03:16:20 PM
*hoard
Leroy was a grinder,spent a few yrs here - that's when Michigan had RBs
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 26, 2020, 04:30:52 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 26, 2020, 03:57:35 PM
I prefer horde...
The Horde is made up of orcs, Forsaken, tauren, trolls, blood elves, goblins, and most recently, pandaren. Misunderstood and cast aside, these diverse and powerful races strive to overcome their differences and unite as one in order to win freedom for their people and prosper in a land that has come to hate them.
Who are you and what have you done with FF?see what happens when you eat lutefisk
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 26, 2020, 04:39:12 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 25, 2020, 08:40:05 PM
Are you a child?  No, not literally 5 minutes.  FFS
Just what I thought the rest of us shouldn't take a damn thing you say at face value
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 26, 2020, 04:51:38 PM
I suppose this shows how any malady will be turned into a political hammer at some point.

I also think even if we had some "perfect" response, we would still have had significant numbers of sick and dead people.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 26, 2020, 04:59:21 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/0RWA9fC.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 26, 2020, 06:19:06 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 26, 2020, 04:51:38 PM
I suppose this shows how any malady will be turned into a political hammer at some point.

I also think even if we had some "perfect" response, we would still have had significant numbers of sick and dead people. 
True, especially in an election year, it would have been politicized. 

But I think we can say that "stick your fingers in your ears and say 'nananananananana' and act like it doesn't exist" is perhaps a much less than perfect response. 

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 26, 2020, 04:59:21 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/0RWA9fC.png)
That's interesting... Shows that something must have improved with treatments between the April and Jul/Aug spikes, because hospitalizations were similar in number but deaths WAY down the second time. 

Will be interesting to see how it goes in this third wave. I certainly wouldn't expect a return to April numbers, but if it can be even lower than the Jul/Aug spike in deaths given similar hospitalization that would suggest we're learning important improvements as we go. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 26, 2020, 06:53:16 PM
I think protecting the elderly became more of a priority the second time.  Many of them likely self protected also.

Obviously, this is serious, and novel, but the political blame game is less important to me than trying to understand what is happening and what steps could be taken now to limit it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 26, 2020, 06:59:06 PM
There was never going to be any response that is accepted by all as "perfect" for the fundamental reason that people disagree on how exactly we should respond.

Some people wanted to shut everything down until the virus was eradicated.  And some of those people still do. 

Some people wanted to go on with life as normal.  And some of those people still do.

And a lot of people are somewhere in the middle, wanting to be responsible and wear masks and remain socially distant in order to protect the most vulnerable, while also getting on with life and not jeopardizing the futures of a generation of students, the disadvantaged, the poor and hungry, any more than we already have.

But those fundamental differences in approach, dictate that there was never going to be a universally acceptable response.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on October 26, 2020, 07:10:36 PM
I honestly don’t see how anyone can compare how the US is doing to any other country in the world. There isn’t a country on the planet that has the travel dynamic, both international and domestic, the US has.  The US has more international airports than Japan, S Korea, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand do combined.  The US has 4 of the busiest 10 airports in the world. Our citizens fly at nearly double the rate of the next closest country.

It is the travel hub of the world. Any comparison to any other country falls under apples and oranges to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 26, 2020, 07:19:07 PM
I think gross comparisons are appropriate especially when a country like Sweden takes a different tact.  You learn by comparing, understanding the differences.

France had a better figure today at least.

You can also compare state to state experiences to try and see what may be working.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2020, 07:37:13 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 26, 2020, 06:19:06 PM
True, especially in an election year, it would have been politicized.

But I think we can say that "stick your fingers in your ears and say 'nananananananana' and act like it doesn't exist" is perhaps a much less than perfect response.
When he closed travel to/from China in January (JANUARY) he was labeled a xenophobe by the guy he's running against.

The mayor of New York was encouraging people to come to the city in late February, much like the house speaker was encouraging people to come to Chinatown in SF at the same time.

Nobody (MSM) ever talks about that stuff.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2020, 07:38:35 AM
Quote from: utee94 on October 26, 2020, 06:59:06 PM
There was never going to be any response that is accepted by all as "perfect" for the fundamental reason that people disagree on how exactly we should respond.

Some people wanted to shut everything down until the virus was eradicated.  And some of those people still do. 

Some people wanted to go on with life as normal.  And some of those people still do.

And a lot of people are somewhere in the middle, wanting to be responsible and wear masks and remain socially distant in order to protect the most vulnerable, while also getting on with life and not jeopardizing the futures of a generation of students, the disadvantaged, the poor and hungry, any more than we already have.

But those fundamental differences in approach, dictate that there was never going to be a universally acceptable response.


Government employees.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2020, 08:00:29 AM
Haven't heard much about this study since it came out almost two weeks ago. I meant to post it here and forgot (unless I posted it here and forgot).


https://www.ustranscom.mil/cmd/docs/TRANSCOM%20Report%20Final.pdf


We're going to have our kids fly here for Christmas. We are not cancelling it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on October 27, 2020, 08:37:01 AM
https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1321027536239943680?s=20
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2020, 08:43:10 AM
Is there a published study on this Max? This is very good news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on October 27, 2020, 08:48:56 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2020, 08:43:10 AM
Is there a published study on this Max? This is very good news.
I think it was more in response to this

https://twitter.com/ReutersUK/status/1321018815770222592?s=20
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 27, 2020, 08:59:08 AM
Quote from: utee94 on October 26, 2020, 06:59:06 PM
There was never going to be any response that is accepted by all as "perfect" for the fundamental reason that people disagree on how exactly we should respond.

Some people wanted to shut everything down until the virus was eradicated.  And some of those people still do. 

Some people wanted to go on with life as normal.  And some of those people still do.

And a lot of people are somewhere in the middle, wanting to be responsible and wear masks and remain socially distant in order to protect the most vulnerable, while also getting on with life and not jeopardizing the futures of a generation of students, the disadvantaged, the poor and hungry, any more than we already have.

But those fundamental differences in approach, dictate that there was never going to be a universally acceptable response.


This. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 27, 2020, 09:00:30 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/27/pfizers-late-stage-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-is-near-complete-enrollment-with-42000-volunteers.html


Presuming the trial was as we all hope, they likely will get emergency use authorization in December, probably for health care workers and those most likely to be exposed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2020, 09:02:30 AM
Healthcare workers have not been exposed mush, as was feared early on. They are doing a good job and have the best PPE available.

I think engineers should be first in line.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 27, 2020, 10:54:28 AM
the state of Iowa has their vaccine plan ready to go

they haven't given any clues, but they are stating they have a plan 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on October 27, 2020, 11:34:42 AM
Quote from: Kris60 on October 26, 2020, 07:10:36 PM
I honestly don’t see how anyone can compare how the US is doing to any other country in the world. There isn’t a country on the planet that has the travel dynamic, both international and domestic, the US has.  The US has more international airports than Japan, S Korea, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand do combined.  The US has 4 of the busiest 10 airports in the world. Our citizens fly at nearly double the rate of the next closest country.

It is the travel hub of the world. Any comparison to any other country falls under apples and oranges to me.
Amen. Not to mention we have the most grotesquely fat, obese, diabetic, heart disease stricken population in the entire world and it’s not remotely close. 99% of deaths have been disgusting fatties with underlying conditions and the very old- with you guessed it- underlying conditions.

Doesn’t affect children at all, and reasonably healthy adults 18-55 are completely fine.

Say what you want about Trump- but he was 1000000% correct when he said the cure can’t be worse than the disease. Wiping out people’s small businesses and livelihoods and shutting down the country and the economy causing a depression that would rival the Great Depression- is NOT A GOOD IDEA. There has been a ridiculous spike in alcohol and drug abuse and suicides- in large part tied to the extreme and excessive ongoing lockdowns that democratic leaders have tried to institute in order to squeeze the economy and the public in order to get the masses to blame everything on the republicans. There has been zero science or reasoning behind much of it. They’ve politicized it and used it as a weapon to hurt the party in power of the federal government, and it’s a god damn shame.

There has been an insane spike in suicide deaths- and MORE SUICIDE DEATHS in the past two months than there have been coronavirus deaths.

We can’t all hide in the basement like that senile old corrupt f***k Biden. Not everyone trades off their political career to enrich themselves to the tune of tens of millions of dollars and can afford to lock themselves in the basement. Sorry senile joe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 27, 2020, 12:40:08 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on October 27, 2020, 11:34:42 AM
There has been an insane spike in suicide deaths- and MORE SUICIDE DEATHS in the past two months than there have been coronavirus deaths.
Got a link on that one? I did some searching but have seen nothing like that... 

A rough back of the envelope calculation suggests that somewhere between probably 45-55K people have died due to COVID in the last two months. That's roughly equal to the entire number of suicides in a year (48K in 2018). I can't find any clear numbers for 2020 but to say that more than 45K have offed themselves in just the last two months is just a bunch of BS as far as I can tell. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 27, 2020, 12:44:40 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on October 27, 2020, 11:34:42 AM
Amen. Not to mention we have the most grotesquely fat, obese, diabetic, heart disease stricken population in the entire world and it’s not remotely close. 99% of deaths have been disgusting fatties with underlying conditions and the very old- with you guessed it- underlying conditions.

Doesn’t affect children at all, and reasonably healthy adults 18-55 are completely fine.

Say what you want about Trump- but he was 1000000% correct when he said the cure can’t be worse than the disease. Wiping out people’s small businesses and livelihoods and shutting down the country and the economy causing a depression that would rival the Great Depression- is NOT A GOOD IDEA. There has been a ridiculous spike in alcohol and drug abuse and suicides- in large part tied to the extreme and excessive ongoing lockdowns that democratic leaders have tried to institute in order to squeeze the economy and the public in order to get the masses to blame everything on the republicans. There has been zero science or reasoning behind much of it. They’ve politicized it and used it as a weapon to hurt the party in power of the federal government, and it’s a god damn shame.

There has been an insane spike in suicide deaths- and MORE SUICIDE DEATHS in the past two months than there have been coronavirus deaths.

We can’t all hide in the basement like that senile old corrupt f***k Biden. Not everyone trades off their political career to enrich themselves to the tune of tens of millions of dollars and can afford to lock themselves in the basement. Sorry senile joe.
I find that very hard to believe
are you sure about that
that would be over 45,000 suicides in two months
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 27, 2020, 12:45:41 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 27, 2020, 12:40:08 PM
Got a link on that one? I did some searching but have seen nothing like that...

A rough back of the envelope calculation suggests that somewhere between probably 45-55K people have died due to COVID in the last two months. That's roughly equal to the entire number of suicides in a year (48K in 2018). I can't find any clear numbers for 2020 but to say that more than 45K have offed themselves in just the last two months is just a bunch of BS as far as I can tell.


you stole my thunder
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 27, 2020, 12:57:46 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on October 27, 2020, 11:34:42 AM
Amen. Not to mention we have the most grotesquely fat, obese, diabetic, heart disease stricken population in the entire world and it’s not remotely close. 99% of deaths have been disgusting fatties with underlying conditions and the very old- with you guessed it- underlying conditions.

Doesn’t affect children at all, and reasonably healthy adults 18-55 are completely fine.

Say what you want about Trump- but he was 1000000% correct when he said the cure can’t be worse than the disease. Wiping out people’s small businesses and livelihoods and shutting down the country and the economy causing a depression that would rival the Great Depression- is NOT A GOOD IDEA. There has been a ridiculous spike in alcohol and drug abuse and suicides- in large part tied to the extreme and excessive ongoing lockdowns that democratic leaders have tried to institute in order to squeeze the economy and the public in order to get the masses to blame everything on the republicans. There has been zero science or reasoning behind much of it. They’ve politicized it and used it as a weapon to hurt the party in power of the federal government, and it’s a god damn shame.

There has been an insane spike in suicide deaths- and MORE SUICIDE DEATHS in the past two months than there have been coronavirus deaths.

We can’t all hide in the basement like that senile old corrupt f***k Biden. Not everyone trades off their political career to enrich themselves to the tune of tens of millions of dollars and can afford to lock themselves in the basement. Sorry senile joe.
I appreciate your objectivity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 27, 2020, 12:59:12 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 27, 2020, 12:44:40 PM
I find that very hard to believe
are you sure about that
that would be over 45,000 suicides in two months
Yes, lots of people kill themselves.

If you want to get really dark (and honest), let's discuss veteran suicides.  They're plentiful every year and no one seems to want to do anything about it.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 27, 2020, 01:02:39 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 27, 2020, 12:59:12 PM
Yes, lots of people kill themselves.

If you want to get really dark (and honest), let's discuss veteran suicides.  They're plentiful every year and no one seems to want to do anything about it. 
Plenty of people want to do something about it, PLENTY.  And some are trying.  It's not clear what can be done about it given most of them are over 50 years old.

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2019/10/09/new-veteran-suicide-numbers-raise-concerns-among-experts-hoping-for-positive-news/

But THIS thread is about COVID.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 27, 2020, 01:10:18 PM
many people die of many things, obviously

most deaths aren't politicized 

covid deaths and deaths caused by law enforcement are political
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 27, 2020, 01:11:16 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 27, 2020, 12:59:12 PM
Yes, lots of people kill themselves.

If you want to get really dark (and honest), let's discuss veteran suicides.  They're plentiful every year and no one seems to want to do anything about it. 
that may be but I dont think its anywhere near that number
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on October 27, 2020, 01:46:02 PM
Here's why this is a political issue to me. There are a great many things we don't know about COVID-19, but we do know a couple of basic steps that will dramatically reduce the spread of the virus in the U.S. However, certain political leaders--people to whom significant portions of the public look for guidance--have belittled those measures, which--like it or not--has led many people to ignore them. That has the predictable outcome of worsening the spread of the virus, i.e. killing more Americans. 

I can't imagine this same thing happening at any other time during my lifetime--and it is absolutely the result of political leadership.

One person could have done one very basic thing at any time between February and now, which would have dramatically reduced the death toll in this country: embrace the medical consensus on the best way to reduce the transmission of the disease by (1) wearing masks; and (2) reducing unnecessary social interaction. If that one person had done this, the results would have been significantly less dire. No, COVID-19 wouldn't have gone away, and yes, Americans would still be dying, but at nowhere near the rate we've had.

This is a political issue because one specific individual made it one. And now--I think--he will pay the political consequence. Unfortunately, that can't bring back the tens of thousands of people who died for his vanity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 27, 2020, 02:04:33 PM
We were out today as usual and mask wearing here is pretty high, and mandatory in any building I've entered (including ours).

I do agree that a better example could have been established earlier.

I'd note - again - that European countries are not doing very well at all right now even with a good example having been set.

(The wife had a follow up appt. with her surgeon, it went well.  We walk over to that medical building weekly for PT.  We stopped in Whole Paycheck for a few items on the way back.)

Wearing a mask itself should never have been politicized of course, but explained, clearly, by everyone in any authority.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2020, 02:06:17 PM
SF, again, the blame game cuts in many ways, and we really shouldn't go there as a country because a whole lot of mistakes were made, and still are in my opinion.


Are you talking about this leader on February 24?

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=pelosi+chinatown&docid=608041222011882091&mid=E986EA76E645DDB14AE3E986EA76E645DDB14AE3&view=detail&FORM=VIRE

She looked really nice after that hair styling too. OK, not really. Heh.


Or this leader on February 2?

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=diblasio+go+about+your+normal+lives&&view=detail&mid=806D29A14D1082B0381B806D29A14D1082B0381B&&FORM=VRDGAR&ru=%2Fvideos%2Fsearch%3Fq%3Ddiblasio%2520go%2520about%2520your%2520normal%2520lives%26qs%3DMM%26form%3DQBVDMH%26sp%3D1%26pq%3Ddeblaio%2520go%2520about%2520%26sc%3D1-17%26cvid%3DF8AE16AAC7BA447C8BBEDB849EBA4EBB


Or this leader, up until May 10?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/gov-cuomos-controversial-order-requiring-nursing-homes-to-admit-covid-19-patients-was-reportedly-removed-from-new-yorks-health-website/ar-BB14GiNL


And all the rest of these leaders?

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/aug/26/democrat-governors-sending-covid-patients-nursing-/


Or this leader, banning travel to/from Florida/Wisconsin and sending his family there anyway during the lockdown?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/gov-jb-pritzker-acknowledges-family-members-have-been-in-florida-and-wisconsin-during-coronavirus-shutdown/ar-BB149sRG





OK, so the POTUS should have set an example and wore a mask. He underplayed it too, although I think he was kinda trying to not scare the hell out of people at a time of serious unknown. I agree with that 100 percent. But let's not pretend nobody else made any very bad mistakes. He also made some very good decisions and made sure a lot of good things happened. 


If we really want to lay blame, Look to the CCP, and the WHO.

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2020, 02:09:15 PM
Now I would like to know what we should be doing differently, right now. Mandates don't work, which we know.

I would like to see 100 percent mask wearing everywhere. It's good here in FL (except in Miami, for some reason), but not in places like North Dakota.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 27, 2020, 02:26:05 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on October 27, 2020, 11:34:42 AM
Doesn’t affect children at all, and reasonably healthy adults 18-55 are completely fine.

I know of a 24 & 22 year old guys who are in fighting shape and they both got sidelined for a week/quarentined at home(Done with College).So it is a thing but they are not stacking them like cordwood like the Spanish Flu/Plague
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 27, 2020, 02:28:38 PM
folks like to go back 8 months ago and lay blame

that was 8 months ago and we are spiking in new cases today

so what should we be doing differently now not 8 months ago

unless of course you want to blame POTUS today which doesnt seem right

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 27, 2020, 02:30:13 PM
does the federal government have the authority to require masks in North Dakota?

enforceable or not

I understand, the image of the POTUS behind a podium with a mask on and his message pleading with all americans to wear masks wouldn't hurt, not sure how much it would help.  It would help some, whether that would be measureable or not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 27, 2020, 02:30:22 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2020, 02:06:17 PM
SF, again, the blame game cuts in many ways, and we really shouldn't go there as a country because a whole lot of mistakes were made, and still are in my opinion.


Are you talking about this leader on February 24?

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=pelosi+chinatown&docid=608041222011882091&mid=E986EA76E645DDB14AE3E986EA76E645DDB14AE3&view=detail&FORM=VIRE

She looked really nice after that hair styling too. OK, not really. Heh.
If a bucket of chapped assholes is your thing then sure.Gun to your head Hillary or Pelosi,you got pick one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 27, 2020, 02:34:03 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2020, 02:06:17 PM
SF, again, the blame game cuts in many ways, and we really shouldn't go there as a country because a whole lot of mistakes were made, and still are in my opinion.


Are you talking about this leader on February 24?

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=pelosi+chinatown&docid=608041222011882091&mid=E986EA76E645DDB14AE3E986EA76E645DDB14AE3&view=detail&FORM=VIRE

She looked really nice after that hair styling too. OK, not really. Heh.


Or this leader on February 2?

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=diblasio+go+about+your+normal+lives&&view=detail&mid=806D29A14D1082B0381B806D29A14D1082B0381B&&FORM=VRDGAR&ru=%2Fvideos%2Fsearch%3Fq%3Ddiblasio%2520go%2520about%2520your%2520normal%2520lives%26qs%3DMM%26form%3DQBVDMH%26sp%3D1%26pq%3Ddeblaio%2520go%2520about%2520%26sc%3D1-17%26cvid%3DF8AE16AAC7BA447C8BBEDB849EBA4EBB


Or this leader, up until May 10?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/gov-cuomos-controversial-order-requiring-nursing-homes-to-admit-covid-19-patients-was-reportedly-removed-from-new-yorks-health-website/ar-BB14GiNL


And all the rest of these leaders?

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/aug/26/democrat-governors-sending-covid-patients-nursing-/


Or this leader, banning travel to/from Florida/Wisconsin and sending his family there anyway during the lockdown?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/gov-jb-pritzker-acknowledges-family-members-have-been-in-florida-and-wisconsin-during-coronavirus-shutdown/ar-BB149sRG





OK, so the POTUS should have set an example and wore a mask. He underplayed it too, although I think he was kinda trying to not scare the hell out of people at a time of serious unknown. I agree with that 100 percent. But let's not pretend nobody else made any very bad mistakes. He also made some very good decisions and made sure a lot of good things happened.


If we really want to lay blame, Look to the CCP, and the WHO.

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152

You're citing what democratic leaders did IN LIEU  of leadership from the top.  Trump absconded any responsibility so that he'd have no accountability.


You can't honestly need that to be said, do you?  You know this.  All of his zealots know this.  And yet he's still leading in Ohio.  What on earth is happening in Ohio that isn't in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 27, 2020, 02:35:00 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 27, 2020, 02:30:13 PM
does the federal government have the authority to require masks in North Dakota?

enforceable or not

I understand, the image of the POTUS behind a podium with a mask on and his message pleading with all americans to wear masks wouldn't hurt, not sure how much it would help.  It would help some, whether that would be measureable or not.
It would help because a large % of the precise population refusing to wear masks worships him.  It's not complicated.  Monkey see, monkey do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 27, 2020, 02:35:45 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 27, 2020, 02:28:38 PM
folks like to go back 8 months ago and lay blame

that was 8 months ago and we are spiking in new cases today

so what should we be doing differently now not 8 months ago

unless of course you want to blame POTUS today which doesnt seem right


Stop.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 27, 2020, 02:36:38 PM
by large percentage are you imagining 10%?

I'd say that would be the top limit for Trump lovers in my area

and I'm not in a Blue area
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 27, 2020, 02:37:29 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 27, 2020, 02:36:38 PM
by large percentage are you imagining 10%?

I'd say that would be the top limit for Trump lovers in my area

and I'm not in a Blue area
10% of the 'refuse to wear a mask' crowd?  I was thinking more like 75%
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on October 27, 2020, 02:39:21 PM
Leadership matters, and no leadership in the country matters like Presidential leadership. You all know this, but for some unknown reason you fight it every chance you get.

It is stunning the lengths people will go to avoid accountability for the person most accountable.

Were things different on March 1 than May 1? Then June 1? Then August 15? Etc., etc.? Of course. And throughout that entire time, up until the present, you know what the President did. It's not a secret, it's not a conspiracy, and it was wrong. And it still is. People died because of him--tens of thousands of them. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 27, 2020, 02:46:04 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 27, 2020, 02:28:38 PM
folks like to go back 8 months ago and lay blame

that was 8 months ago and we are spiking in new cases today

so what should we be doing differently now not 8 months ago

unless of course you want to blame POTUS today which doesnt seem right
Well, there are things to blame him for today...

Such as not telling us we're "turning the corner" as we're seeing huge rises in cases, coupled with the expected time-delay lag of seeing increases in hospitalizations and deaths. 

Such as not repeatedly holding rallies with huge crowds who are largely unmasked [even if outdoors], and other superspreader events such as the event introducing his SCOTUS nominee which is the likely cause of a cluster of cases both within his administration, the Senate, and others in attendance.

Such as not claiming that the media just keeps saying "COVID, COVID, COVID, cases, COVID" in order to hurt him politically as if this isn't not a serious pandemic. He's still downplaying it; and it's almost gotten worse since he had it. 

Quote from: FearlessF on October 27, 2020, 02:30:13 PM
does the federal government have the authority to require masks in North Dakota?

enforceable or not

I understand, the image of the POTUS behind a podium with a mask on and his message pleading with all americans to wear masks wouldn't hurt, not sure how much it would help.  It would help some, whether that would be measureable or not.
No, the federal government, to my knowledge, does not have the authority to invoke a national mask mandate. This would fall under the general "police powers", which with some limited exceptions, are seen as state powers. 

As for what he's doing, I'd settle, quite frankly, for silence or simply saying "listen to the medical experts". Instead he's consistently sending messages that go exactly counter to what medical experts are trying to put forward. Such as the debate, where he said "I have a mask, I wear a mask sometimes." and pulled it out of his suit jacket pocket, before saying about Biden "That guy, it's like every time I see him he's wearing a mask, it's like he never takes it off." Which does nothing but reinforce his stupid blowhard machismo as if he's more of a man than Biden because he's not seen with a mask. 

I'll give Trump somewhat of a pass on what he did in March. Nobody knew much of anything then, and even if he told Woodward that it was a big deal, that was basically only the L strain and probably not the G, GH, or GR strains which are much more transmissible and took over. 

But from April on, he's consistently downplayed it, opposed measures which helped with social distancing, tweeted his minions to "liberate" the states with lockdowns, modeled poor behavior by having large maskless gatherings on MANY occasions, both before and after his SCOTUS nominee superspreader event, and generally told people it's going to disappear and he's going to have a vaccine for us by the election. All the while he's tried to make it partisan by blaming it on Democrat-run cities or states, as if red states have handled this well. 

It's hard to imagine someone giving WORSE messaging and optics on this thing than he's given since April. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 27, 2020, 02:48:04 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on October 27, 2020, 02:39:21 PM
Leadership matters, and no leadership in the country matters like Presidential leadership. You all know this, but for some unknown reason you fight it every chance you get.

It is stunning the lengths people will go to avoid accountability for the person most accountable.

Were things different on March 1 than May 1? Then June 1? Then August 15? Etc., etc.? Of course. And throughout that entire time, up until the present, you know what the President did. It's not a secret, it's not a conspiracy, and it was wrong. And it still is. People died because of him--tens of thousands of them.
what should the President do today to save all these people SF
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 27, 2020, 02:52:10 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2020, 02:09:15 PM
Now I would like to know what we should be doing differently, right now. Mandates don't work, which we know.

I would like to see 100 percent mask wearing everywhere. It's good here in FL (except in Miami, for some reason), but not in places like North Dakota.
Mandates absolutely work. Note: they don't even need to be enforced to work. 

For example, here in CA we have a mask mandate. Orange County in particular (because our officials hate Newsom) are doing absolutely nothing to enforce it. But there's SOCIAL pressure that is much stronger when there's a mandate:


Now, would I support huge penalties and draconian enforcement of a mask mandate? No, but having it be a mandate is a much stronger signal to influence behavior than not. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 27, 2020, 02:55:03 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 27, 2020, 02:37:29 PM
10% of the 'refuse to wear a mask' crowd?  I was thinking more like 75%
% of the population that worship him?

I'll agree to around 75% of the refuse to wear a mask crowd, maybe.  Probably closer to 40-50%
gotta be a few liberals that hate masks and refuse to wear them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 27, 2020, 02:59:23 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 27, 2020, 02:52:10 PM
Mandates absolutely work. Note: they don't even need to be enforced to work.

For example, here in CA we have a mask mandate. Orange County in particular (because our officials hate Newsom) are doing absolutely nothing to enforce it. But there's SOCIAL pressure that is much stronger when there's a mandate:

  • Businesses don't need to risk alienating their customers by being pro-mask. They can point "blame" to the mandate. I saw this very one last weekend at a brewery. They require a mask when you are not at your table, such as going to the bar to order another beer. The guy in front of me wasn't wearing his in line, and the bartender wouldn't take his order until he put it on. He huffed and puffed a little, but he put the mask on.
  • Many people look at what they're required to do or not do as evidence for what they should or should not do. That's dumb, but hey, that's humanity. So a non-zero portion of the public is going to wear a mask if there's a mandate who would NOT wear a mask without one.
  • When there is a mask mandate, and someone is in a crowded or public area without one, they get dirty looks. When you have a policy of "it's your decision to wear or not wear a mask" it makes it a lot harder for other individuals to exert that social pressure on someone for non-compliance.

Now, would I support huge penalties and draconian enforcement of a mask mandate? No, but having it be a mandate is a much stronger signal to influence behavior than not.


Where have mandates worked?

California???

California had 3500 new cases just yesterday

California is far from a good example of mandates working
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on October 27, 2020, 03:05:36 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 27, 2020, 02:48:04 PM
what should the President do today to save all these people SF
What he should do is immediately apologize for his failure to lead on this subject, state unequivocally the need to wear masks and maintain social distancing, and model that behavior.

Because he is preternaturally incapable of apologizing, I'd settle for him saying that as he's learned so much more about this, he knows now that what we need to do--now, and going forward--is wear masks and maintain social distancing...and model that behavior. And he can't just say it in passing like it's pulling teeth to get him to say it, he has to say it like he means it--you know, like he would talk about China, or his wall, or Biden's corruption; things he wants people to listen to him about. 

You all know what that looks like, and you know it's what he should do. And you know he won't do it--and that he should have done it months ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 27, 2020, 03:10:28 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 27, 2020, 02:59:23 PM
Where have mandates worked?

California???

California had 3500 new cases just yesterday

California is far from a good example of mandates working
California has a population of almost 40M people, and is thus roughly 12% of the entire US population.

Yesterday the country had 69,841 cases according to worldometers, and California accounted for only 5.5% of that. California accounted for only 43 deaths yesterday against 529 nationally, or 8% of deaths. 

Since this whole thing started, California has accounted for about 10.2% of cases, and about 7.5% of deaths compared to nationally. 

So on both cases and deaths, California, which should comprise 12% of both nationally, is below those numbers. 

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on October 27, 2020, 03:11:12 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 27, 2020, 02:59:23 PM
Where have mandates worked?

California???

California had 3500 new cases just yesterday

California is far from a good example of mandates working
You do realize there are about 40 million people in California? California is 34th (50th being the best) in per capita infections, despite having far denser population centers than most of the states above it on this list, and 45th in new cases per capita in the last week.

So yeah, the leadership in California is working.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2020, 03:17:50 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on October 27, 2020, 02:39:21 PM
Leadership matters, and no leadership in the country matters like Presidential leadership. You all know this, but for some unknown reason you fight it every chance you get.

It is stunning the lengths people will go to avoid accountability for the person most accountable.

Were things different on March 1 than May 1? Then June 1? Then August 15? Etc., etc.? Of course. And throughout that entire time, up until the present, you know what the President did. It's not a secret, it's not a conspiracy, and it was wrong. And it still is. People died because of him--tens of thousands of them.
And some people died in NY, etc. because of other actions that had nothing to do with anyone else.

I would prefer we focus on today than things that happened 8 months ago.

And I'm not defending the POTUS. He downplayed it, didn't wear a mask, got the virus and I don't think he should be holding rallies. He is still not the person most accountable. That person is in Beijing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 27, 2020, 03:24:19 PM
For POTUS, this would be a good start:

(https://i.imgur.com/NwfCxQf.png)

But I think he just order a backhoe. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 27, 2020, 03:25:03 PM
 Back to politics again I see.  

Why do you guys bother trying to argue with these liberals. Yes I mean the ones on this forum. The same people who told you before the pandemic that they hated Trump and  it would never believe a word he said or support A thing he did.  Now they’re trying to act like it’s his fault because he didn’t wear a mask and everybody’s following him LOL

They try to act like their heroes, the Democratic leaders, are actually wearing masks when they get caught every day not wearing them. They try to act like their other heroes the media Talking Heads who chastise everybody who’s not wearing a mask or actually believing what they’re saying and they get caught every day not wearing them.

They try to act like the real spread which came from college campuses were students aren’t political but just aren’t wearing masks or these huge protests with riots didn’t spread it.

They are contributing to the worlds greatest false narrative which I’ll give credit to the media for having done a masterful job. That Trump created the virus in his personal laboratory and that they have better ideas about how to fix it or have illustrated a single solitary thing that proves they know what they’re doing or that they are listening to science.   

Not one of them has an ounce of credibility as far as I am concerned. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 27, 2020, 03:25:30 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on October 27, 2020, 03:11:12 PM
You do realize there are about 40 million people in California? California is 34th (50th being the best) in per capita infections, despite having far denser population centers than most of the states above it on this list, and 45th in new cases per capita in the last week.

So yeah, the leadership in California is working.
well have a happy Thanksgiving
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 27, 2020, 03:27:20 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 27, 2020, 03:25:03 PM
Back to politics again I see. 

Why do you guys bother trying to argue with these liberals. Yes I mean the ones on this forum. The same people who told you before the pandemic that they hated Trump and  it would never believe a word he said or support A thing he did.  Now they’re trying to act like it’s his fault because he didn’t wear a mask and everybody’s following him LOL

They try to act like their heroes, the Democratic leaders, are actually wearing masks when they get caught every day not wearing them. They try to act like their other heroes the media Talking Heads who chastise everybody who’s not wearing a mask or actually believing what they’re saying and they get caught every day not wearing them.

They try to act like the real spread which came from college campuses were students aren’t political but just aren’t wearing masks or these huge protests with riots didn’t spread it.

They are contributing to the worlds greatest false narrative which I’ll give credit to the media for having done a masterful job. That Trump created the virus in his personal laboratory and that they have better ideas about how to fix it or have illustrated a single solitary thing that proves they know what they’re doing or that they are listening to science. 

Not one of them has an ounce of credibility as far as I am concerned.


Youre right

Im going back to sleep
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2020, 03:35:00 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 27, 2020, 03:25:03 PM
Why do you guys bother trying to argue with these liberals.


Well, I don't know if we have any true liberals in the way that is defined today, which is much different than it was even 10 years ago. I suspect most of us are closer to the same than otherwise.. We all want the best for our country, even though how that looks to some might be different than it does to others.

I think we all wear masks, do our research and follow the guidelines set out by the doctors and scientists. If not, wouldn't at least some of us have been lost by now?

I don't view this as arguing, honestly. I view it as presenting ideas and discussing policy.

It got politicized, unfortunately, as soon as the POTUS closed travel to/from China. Turns out that it was the right thing to do. A lot of lives were saved with that decision.

This board is unified, I believe. Healthy discussion on this is a good thing. However, the blame game does none of us any good. We need to find a path forward and deal with this damn mess we were deliberately placed in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 27, 2020, 03:49:40 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 27, 2020, 03:24:19 PM
For POTUS, this would be a good start:

(https://i.imgur.com/NwfCxQf.png)

But I think he just order a backhoe.


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Qu6PH9E5jiA


Boy that’s rich when you consider that this loony Biden character often can’t remember what city he is in, who he is actually running against, needs a nap after one or two days of campaigning, and has been caught in so many obvious lies and flip-flops that he does not know up from down LOL.  He needs five commercial grade backhoes
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 27, 2020, 03:50:20 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 27, 2020, 03:25:03 PM
Back to politics again I see. 

Why do you guys bother trying to argue with these liberals. Yes I mean the ones on this forum. The same people who told you before the pandemic that they hated Trump and  it would never believe a word he said or support A thing he did.  Now they’re trying to act like it’s his fault because he didn’t wear a mask and everybody’s following him LOL

They try to act like their heroes, the Democratic leaders, are actually wearing masks when they get caught every day not wearing them. They try to act like their other heroes the media Talking Heads who chastise everybody who’s not wearing a mask or actually believing what they’re saying and they get caught every day not wearing them.

They try to act like the real spread which came from college campuses were students aren’t political but just aren’t wearing masks or these huge protests with riots didn’t spread it.

They are contributing to the worlds greatest false narrative which I’ll give credit to the media for having done a masterful job. That Trump created the virus in his personal laboratory and that they have better ideas about how to fix it or have illustrated a single solitary thing that proves they know what they’re doing or that they are listening to science. 

Not one of them has an ounce of credibility as far as I am concerned.
Nice strawman, HB! You really demolished it!

I criticized Newsom on here within the last 48 hours over his Thanksgiving "regulations", pointing out that he was coming across as a nanny state regulator digging into minutiae instead of focusing on a big-picture message, and based on the level of regulation he was trying to put onto family gatherings--which he can't remotely enforce--I'm surprised he wasn't giving out side dish recipes to go along with the turkey.

I gave him credit back in March for a solid response, but he's spent most of the last several months coming up with asinine regulations which I am convinced are not science-based on how things should/can reopen. Most notably, his stupid "health equity metric" which stops counties from continuing to reopen when meeting the numbers overall if the rich part of the county is exceeding the metrics by a lot while the poor parts of the county aren't. 

There's plenty of screwup to go around, but when the guy with the biggest bully pulpit in the known world is saying exactly the wrong thing for months, and actively modeling the wrong behavior for months, are you saying we can't criticize that? 

Everyone's still on the riots, which many of us AT THE TIME were concerned would lead to spread. 

Like July 17 when I said outright I believed it contributed to the spread: https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/sports-and-coronavirus/msg227484/?topicseen#msg227484

And on June 9 when I was referring to someone saying the media says protests can't spread the virus by linking to multiple news pieces suggesting that protests could increase the spread: https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/sports-and-coronavirus/msg224652/?topicseen#msg224652

And on June 17 when I said that the way the timeline works at the point when the early numbers weren't showing a protest spike was looking at it too early, and I expected the spike to play out more slowly due to the protests but still expected there would be one: https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/sports-and-coronavirus/msg227419/?topicseen#msg227419

Yet I'm somehow a "liberal" now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 27, 2020, 03:54:33 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2020, 03:35:00 PM
Well, I don't know if we have any true liberals in the way that is defined today, which is much different than it was even 10 years ago. I suspect most of us are closer to the same than otherwise.. We all want the best for our country, even though how that looks to some might be different than it does to others.

I think we all wear masks, do our research and follow the guidelines set out by the doctors and scientists. If not, wouldn't at least some of us have been lost by now?

I don't view this as arguing, honestly. I view it as presenting ideas and discussing policy.

It got politicized, unfortunately, as soon as the POTUS closed travel to/from China. Turns out that it was the right thing to do. A lot of lives were saved with that decision.

This board is unified, I believe. Healthy discussion on this is a good thing. However, the blame game does none of us any good. We need to find a path forward and deal with this damn mess we were deliberately placed in.
No- we are not unified.  And why do I, or any of us want to come talk about football and have to hear liberal talking points. 
Biden’s plan is just a photocopy of what’s already been done.  After that senile fucker wins they will pack the Supreme Court to make sure that it fits their social agenda and is no longer a judicial branch, they will create a majority in the Senate if they don’t already have one by adding senators for Puerto Rico and Washington DC, they will institute more policies that make me pay my hard-earned money to people that are in this country illegally, and so on and so on so on. I come here to get away from those realities which I’m sure will happen but this place is no longer an escape but just a reminder of the stupidity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 27, 2020, 04:09:24 PM
California has fared pretty well, so far.  I add that because this virus seems to show up in states later than did well earlier, and vice versa.  NY State is doing OK today, as is NJ.  The bad states today did fairly well earlier.

Sweden was looking like a failure and then it got better, and now it's getting worse again, but not as fast as France et al.

Our daughter says everyone is wearing a mask in France and working from home, traffic is way down, etc., and still it's spreading, they had 52,000 reported new cases two days ago, about half that yesterday.

Georgia, which has a relatively high black population (31.5%) and large urban center is doing comparatively well.  We also have a lot of obese people, not good for the mortality numbers.  Deaths are running about 25 per day, while new infections are closer to 1500.

The hypothesis that different strains are behaving differently is interesting, as I noted, and perhaps Europe is seeing a new strain now that has caused, or exacerbated, this latest outbreak.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 27, 2020, 04:18:33 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 27, 2020, 02:35:00 PM
It would help because a large % of the precise population refusing to wear masks worships him.  It's not complicated.  Monkey see, monkey do.
False.  Again.  Take a look at these maps. Red areas of Florida and blue. And then overlay the coronavirus map and a striking truth becomes obvious: the coronavirus cases are heavily concentrated in the blue areas. Try this with very many states in our nation and you’ll get the same result.

Who is the monkey?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on October 27, 2020, 04:20:32 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on October 27, 2020, 02:39:21 PM
Leadership matters, and no leadership in the country matters like Presidential leadership. You all know this, but for some unknown reason you fight it every chance you get.

It is stunning the lengths people will go to avoid accountability for the person most accountable.

Were things different on March 1 than May 1? Then June 1? Then August 15? Etc., etc.? Of course. And throughout that entire time, up until the present, you know what the President did. It's not a secret, it's not a conspiracy, and it was wrong. And it still is. People died because of him--tens of thousands of them.
There isn’t a shred of evidence to support your last sentence. I mean, like zero evidence.  It also promotes one of my increasingly annoying pet peeves.  It completely absolves people of personal responsibility.  Trump can have all the rallies he wants.  It’s up to the individual whether they go or not.

Regardless of what Trump says or does medical experts have been touting masks for months now (after initially downplaying them).  WV is as big a pro Trump state as there is in the country.  It’s rare I see an unmasked face when I go out.  I’m just sick of the politicization of this. It’s shameful.  And Trump bares some of the blame for that too for constantly referring to how blue state governors are doing. 

Biden said the other day we are now over 210k avoidable deaths. He is basically saying every single US was avoidable if only Trump had done more. That is a disgusting comment, but he’ll never be called out for it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2020, 04:29:39 PM
Ok guys. Let's back up here and call it a day.

And I do think we are unified here. I really do. The blame game needs to end though - and I'm guilty too.

I think we can all agree that this is fully on the CCP.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 27, 2020, 04:31:40 PM
I don't think we can know how many may have died because of what might not have been done initially.  And yes, guidance initially was not to wear masks for obvious reasons.  Guidance was also to avoid touching surfaces, which probably was overblown as well.

Clearly even countries with high degrees of mask wearing have been hit hard.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 27, 2020, 05:06:22 PM
JFC you people just can't help yourselves.  I get busy for a few hours and you jackasses screw everything up.

I begin deleting all political shit starting now.

No politics.

Stop it.  Are you children?  Because you're acting like it.  And I'm not talking to one or two of you, on one side or the other.  I'm talking to almost all of you.

STOP

IT

NOW







Thank You For Your Support
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2020, 05:51:02 PM
Sorry.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 27, 2020, 05:57:59 PM
Yeah, sorry... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 27, 2020, 06:18:39 PM
Alright.  Now brush your teeth and off to bed. :)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 27, 2020, 06:24:00 PM
So here in Texico, El Paso is blowing up again.  Or maybe it never really stopped.  I fully realize this thing is going to be whack a mole for a long while longer, but it doesn't change how discouraging it is.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 27, 2020, 06:41:52 PM
seems like the border areas of Texas are the current hot spots
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 27, 2020, 06:46:23 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 27, 2020, 06:18:39 PM
Alright.  Now brush your teeth and off to bed. :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XA8PXbTb7OQ
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on October 27, 2020, 06:59:45 PM
Our county's positivity rate according to today's newspaper: 52.7%
I thought my test would push the positivity rate down; I am good at wearing my mask. I pushed it up. I think that's the two-week positivity rate, but the paper didn't say the time-frame; 202 new cases; 383 new tests in our rural Iowa county of about 17,000.
It characterizes Dubuque's two-week positivity rate as 36.4%. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 27, 2020, 08:57:35 PM
Quote from: Hawkinole on October 27, 2020, 06:59:45 PM
Our county's positivity rate according to today's newspaper: 52.7%
I thought my test would push the positivity rate down; I am good at wearing my mask. I pushed it up. I think that's the two-week positivity rate, but the paper didn't say the time-frame; 202 new cases; 383 new tests in our rural Iowa county of about 17,000.
It characterizes Dubuque's two-week positivity rate as 36.4%.
seems unbelievable to me
my county's rate (Woodbury) is 15% and said to be very high
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on October 27, 2020, 09:28:21 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 27, 2020, 08:57:35 PM
seems unbelievable to me
my county's rate (Woodbury) is 15% and said to be very high
15% is high. I would guess Woodbury has been higher though. Our county is #2 in Iowa positivity rate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 27, 2020, 10:22:57 PM
Delete delete delete delete

Hey, jackwagons-- responding to political posts, is also political.

STOP

IT 

NOW

Some of you are about to get put into time-out.

If you read this and think to yourself, "Wow, I wonder who that is?"

It's most likely you.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Drew4UTk on October 27, 2020, 10:43:07 PM
area-51 was originally a board set up on scout as a place to exile threads gone wrong- off the topic of football.  it..... transitioned.... to something of it's very own in short order.  

i'd hate to see this thread tossed down there.  

"abandon all hope, all ye who enter here".... and Dante hasn't been seen since. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 27, 2020, 10:46:12 PM
Quote from: Drew4UTk on October 27, 2020, 10:43:07 PM
area-51 was originally a board set up on scout as a place to exile threads gone wrong- off the topic of football.  it..... transitioned.... to something of it's very own in short order. 

i'd hate to see this thread tossed down there. 

"abandon all hope, all ye who enter here".... and Dante hasn't been seen since.

:88:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on October 27, 2020, 11:47:57 PM
Kill the rabbit!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 28, 2020, 12:21:45 AM
Quote from: MarqHusker on October 27, 2020, 11:47:57 PM
Kill the rabbit!
Kill the rabbi?! 

That took a dark turn. 

Admittedly I don't have my glasses on. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on October 28, 2020, 12:41:24 AM
Oy vey...

not to my surprise, my kids totally dig Bugs Bunny.  to my surprise they've taken a liking to Seinfeld.  Of course trying to navigate which ones they can watch (9, 11) is a little tricky.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 07:12:12 AM
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/10/27/928062773/u-s-cases-surpass-summer-peak-and-are-climbing-higher-fast

I wish I had a good explanation for this up and down up and down up .... and hopefully down soon, but I dunno.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 07:51:29 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on October 27, 2020, 06:59:45 PM
Our county's positivity rate according to today's newspaper: 52.7%
I thought my test would push the positivity rate down; I am good at wearing my mask. I pushed it up. I think that's the two-week positivity rate, but the paper didn't say the time-frame; 202 new cases; 383 new tests in our rural Iowa county of about 17,000.
It characterizes Dubuque's two-week positivity rate as 36.4%.
So... You have it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 08:12:02 AM
Does positivity rate mean percentage of those tested who test positive?

If so, 50+% is beyond anything I've seen anywhere else by far.

300 tests in a pop of 17,000 is a very low test rate, so I infer only folks with symptoms more or less get tested.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 08:52:09 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 07:12:12 AM
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/10/27/928062773/u-s-cases-surpass-summer-peak-and-are-climbing-higher-fast

I wish I had a good explanation for this up and down up and down up .... and hopefully down soon, but I dunno.
Cases are coming up here in Florida too, but positivity remains around 4-5 percent and hospitalizations are down. When you test 500,000 people, you are gonna get a high case count. 23,000 last week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 28, 2020, 09:02:07 AM
BUIZINGEN, Belgium (AP) — Small, yet so divided, Belgium has been hit hard again by the pandemic, and now presents some of the most worrying statistics in a continent reeling under a coronavirus resurgence.

If ever there was a common enemy for the rival Dutch- and French-speaking citizens and regions to fight, this would surely be it. But even now cooperation goes against the grain in Belgium, to the extent that the country’s Roman Catholics bishops issued a call for all, in the name of the Lord, to show some unity.

“We can win the battle against the coronavirus only if we do it together,” the bishops said in a joint letter ahead of Sunday’s All Saints Day, highlighting the different rules imposed by the country’s national and three regional governments, which are responsible for an area 300 kilometers (185 miles) at its widest reach.

This week, news struck that the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control had recorded Belgium — shoehorned in between Germany, France and the Netherlands — as having the highest 14-day cumulative number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 citizens, just surpassing the Czech Republic.

At 1,390.9 per 100,000 people, it far outstrips even hotbeds like France or Spain. In all, 11,038 people have died so far in the pandemic.

All this in a wealthy nation of 11.5 million people where no fewer than nine ministers — national and regional — have a say on health issues. The dictum “less is more” never reached the Belgian high echelons of power.


Underscoring the threat, authorities said that on Tuesday, 689 people were rushed to hospital with COVID-19, 60 more than the record during the March peak. “And admissions continue to rise,” said crisis center virologist Steven Van Gucht. He added that ICU admissions doubled every 8 days and, if it continued unabated, would reach the saturation level of 2,000 patients around Nov. 6.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 28, 2020, 09:10:09 AM
Quote from: utee94 on October 27, 2020, 10:22:57 PM
Some of you are about to get put into time-out.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/87NS05bya11mg/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 09:11:50 AM
Really sad news in Belgium and Czechia.  All of Europe of course, but those two seem to be getting it the worst right now.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 09:18:16 AM
Is this a different strain?  Or is the rise caused by personal behaviors?  School?  Reopenings?  Young folks partying?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 09:26:48 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 09:18:16 AM
Is this a different strain?  Or is the rise caused by personal behaviors?  School?  Reopenings?  Young folks partying?


I know you're asking rhetorically, and I certainly don't know the answer.

Anecdotally, I do know that my expat friend who lives in Brno, Czech Republic, was posting pictures on social media in midsummer where he and his partner were going all over the place to bars and restaurants and live music venues, inside and out, with relatively large crowds of people, none wearing masks.

His comments were that the pandemic was over in the Czech Republic and things were "back to normal."

So relaxation of personal behaviors (and cessation of government mandates) would certainly appear to be at least a part of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 28, 2020, 09:34:02 AM
Good article about the falling death rate

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/europe/coronavirus-death-rate-second-wave-lower-intl/index.html 

tl;dr version: everything I said three days ago. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 09:34:49 AM
I think many people made the mistake of thinking that since things are reopening, all is well. That's when the stupid really set in. The stupid always ruin things for the smart people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 09:35:16 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 28, 2020, 09:34:02 AM
Good article about the falling death rate

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/europe/coronavirus-death-rate-second-wave-lower-intl/index.html

tl;dr version: everything I said three days ago.
Don't break your arm patting yourself on the back.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 28, 2020, 09:50:19 AM
behaviors here would lead to think the pandemic is over

attended an open house last night, no masks, no social distancing, indoors in relatively tight quarters

I drank at least a sixer of Sam Adams Octoberfest
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 28, 2020, 09:51:02 AM
A falling death rate, while good, is negated by a higher volume of cases.  


I'll forever be stunned by the apathy half of us seem to have at the sheer number of dead from this virus.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 28, 2020, 09:54:01 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 28, 2020, 09:51:02 AM
A falling death rate, while good, is negated by a higher volume of cases. 


I'll forever be stunned by the apathy half of us seem to have at the sheer number of dead from this virus. 
Ive not seen apathy from anyone on here

OK Ill play

Just what are you talking about OAM 

What half has no apathy

Give us an example of this
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 10:07:08 AM
It's a result of a lot of things. Covid fatigue is one I hear quite a bit.

Illinois is locking down again. Many businesses will not be happy and may even ignore.

Looks like Rick Bayless is going to close all of his restaurants for good. That's about 1,500 people out of a job.

If Lettuce Entertain You does the same thing, that's 10,000 people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 10:15:07 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 28, 2020, 09:51:02 AM
A falling death rate, while good, is negated by a higher volume of cases. 


I'll forever be stunned by the apathy half of us seem to have at the sheer number of dead from this virus. 
I'm not sure who here has expressed apathy over the number of folks who have died, but perhaps I missed it, or perhaps you fabricated it.

And a falling death rate that falls faster than a higher volume of cases, which is what we're seeing clearly, is not somehow "negated".  It's an encouraging sign, at least for those who are not apathetic about the numbers who had died.

https://nyulangone.org/news/study-helps-explain-declines-death-rates-covid-19



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 28, 2020, 10:18:10 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 28, 2020, 09:50:19 AM
I drank at least a sixer of Sam Adams Octoberfest
Obviously you didn't bring enough for every one else.utee should give you a time out
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 10:21:48 AM
in France for example, the infection rate reported back in March/April peaked at about 7,500.  Daily deaths reported were often over 1,000 during that period.

Today, the infection rate peaked (so far) at 52,000 (30,000 is more of a moving average).  The deaths reported are in the 300-500 range per day (and still could climb because of delay).  That is a large swing in reported infections and deaths since March/April.

Five times as many reported infections and a third to a half as many deaths.  So, the falling death figures SO FAR are real and absolute.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 10:23:29 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on October 28, 2020, 10:18:10 AM
Obviously you didn't bring enough for every one else.utee should give you a time out
Oktoberfest is actually mostly in September.  Why are people drinking nasty old beer?

Just kidding, marzen is good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 10:27:38 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 10:21:48 AM
in France for example, the infection rate reported back in March/April peaked at about 7,500.  Daily deaths reported were often over 1,000 during that period.

Today, the infection rate peaked (so far) at 52,000 (30,000 is more of a moving average).  The deaths reported are in the 300-500 range per day (and still could climb because of delay).  That is a large swing in reported infections and deaths since March/April.

Five times as many reported infections and a third to a half as many deaths.  So, the falling death figures SO FAR are real and absolute.
Yup, understanding that pretty much everyone on the planet is going to get this virus, the fact that the death rate is declining, is fantastic news.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 10:29:29 AM
Quote from: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 10:27:38 AM
Yup, understanding that pretty much everyone on the planet is going to get this virus, the fact that the death rate is declining, is fantastic news.


It's the best news, actually.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 10:37:04 AM
To the extent the drop in mortality is due to age of infected, IF everyone got it, this trend would reverse, because that would mean the elderly were getting it in numbers and dying as before.

This has still some potential for being a massive killer, if indeed everyone on the planet gets it, short of a vaccine conferring resistance.

The vaccine progress has been solid, apparently, and three major efforts are in progress.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 10:40:27 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 10:37:04 AM
To the extent the drop in mortality is due to age of infected, IF everyone got it, this trend would reverse, because that would mean the elderly were getting it in numbers and dying as before.

This has still some potential for being a massive killer, if indeed everyone on the planet gets it, short of a vaccine conferring resistance.

The vaccine progress has been solid, apparently, and three major efforts are in progress.
This goes back to safe practice. Protect the elderly, the sick and the people of high risk. Everyone else can go about their business, while practicing safe habits. Keep the hospitalizations down, increase testing even more, and continue to develop treatment strategies. It can work if we do it right.

Keeping everyone at home is not the answer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 10:42:44 AM
I was merely noting that, if indeed "everyone gets it", the death toll would be staggering.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 10:45:34 AM
Maybe not. Treatments are better at this than they were all along, and they are still getting better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 28, 2020, 10:45:43 AM
Quote from: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 10:23:29 AM
Oktoberfest is actually mostly in September.  Why are people drinking nasty old beer?

Just kidding, marzen is good.
The old Bavarian Proverb there are no bad beers some are just better than other,mostly true
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 28, 2020, 10:46:44 AM
The question is 

Is the virus becoming weaker or is it the younger folks thats making up the increase or is it the improved treatment drugs and methods that is the reason deaths are not increasing at the same rate as new cases are

or will there be a huge catchup in deaths in the next few weeks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 10:47:28 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 10:45:34 AM
Maybe not. Treatments are better at this than they were all along, and they are still getting better.

I'm talking about just about any mortality percentage applied over 7 BILLION plus.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 10:52:49 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 10:47:28 AM
I'm talking about just about any mortality percentage applied over 7 BILLION plus.


No doubt, this virus is a shitty killer of people.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 10:54:02 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/28/scott-gottlieb-covid-trajectory-in-us-looks-a-lot-like-europe-.html

This guy predicts we're three weeks behind Europe, and it's going to get really really bad here, as it is there.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 28, 2020, 10:57:22 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 10:40:27 AM
This goes back to safe practice. Protect the elderly, the sick and the people of high risk. Everyone else can go about their business, while practicing safe habits. Keep the hospitalizations down, increase testing even more, and continue to develop treatment strategies. It can work if we do it right.

Keeping everyone at home is not the answer.
Testify 847 Testify
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 11:06:53 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 10:54:02 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/28/scott-gottlieb-covid-trajectory-in-us-looks-a-lot-like-europe-.html

This guy predicts we're three weeks behind Europe, and it's going to get really really bad here, as it is there.


wouldn't surprise me at all.

Hopefully the death rate continues to remain lower than the first round.  We'll have to do a much better job at keeping it out of the retirement homes and away from the elderly in general.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 11:39:28 AM
hTe stock market is concerned for sure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 28, 2020, 11:49:06 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 10:54:02 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/28/scott-gottlieb-covid-trajectory-in-us-looks-a-lot-like-europe-.html

This guy predicts we're three weeks behind Europe, and it's going to get really really bad here, as it is there.


I'm hoping and praying he's WRONG
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 11:58:18 AM
There is a reasonable chance he's right, but then I thought that back in August when things were going up so fast.

And then it peaked and declined, for reasons I cannot completely explain.  So, maybe this also peaks.

Sweden is bad again.  Now their weather has shifted, so that COULD be one factor.  They are worse on new cases than they were back when, approaching 2,000 per day.  Deaths remain single digit per day.  They had been over 100 per day in April with a few hundred reported cases.

Some of that reflects more testing.





Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 28, 2020, 01:05:02 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 10:27:38 AM
Yup, understanding that pretty much everyone on the planet is going to get this virus, the fact that the death rate is declining, is fantastic news.
As stated [by me] days ago, and as stated in the CNN story, there are 4 potential explanations for the declining death rate:



So while I'd love to consider it "fantastic news", (#1) better treatments is the only news that I'd call good. The other 3 potential reasons for a declining apparent death rate are either neutral (#2-3) or have no evidence that it is occurring (#4). 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 28, 2020, 01:11:31 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 28, 2020, 10:46:44 AM
The question is

Is the virus becoming weaker or is it the younger folks thats making up the increase or is it the improved treatment drugs and methods that is the reason deaths are not increasing at the same rate as new cases are

or will there be a huge catchup in deaths in the next few weeks
Who knows?

The one thing I've come to believe is that some of the micro swings we see are meaningful, others are just noise. For those watching, just a lot of wait, see and hope. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 28, 2020, 01:17:29 PM
saying everyone will get the virus is ignoring the fact that we have a good chance of a vaccine in the next 3 or 4 months

if the vaccine works then not everybody will get the virus

if the vaccine does not work then yes everyone could catch it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 28, 2020, 01:18:04 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 10:40:27 AM
This goes back to safe practice. Protect the elderly, the sick and the people of high risk. Everyone else can go about their business, while practicing safe habits. Keep the hospitalizations down, increase testing even more, and continue to develop treatment strategies. It can work if we do it right.

Keeping everyone at home is not the answer.
Only problem with that is that you can't necessarily "protect" the elderly. They can't be completely isolated. They need groceries or food delivery. They need medication and/or medical treatments. The ones in nursing homes are being cared for by people who are out in the environment, and one antigen test that is either too early to be detected or a false negative, and you have an outbreak in a nursing home. 

I agree that "locking everyone at home" is not the answer. But IMHO neither is "everyone other than the old and vulnerable go back to normal and reach herd immunity quickly" the answer. 

Quote from: longhorn320 on October 28, 2020, 10:46:44 AM
The question is

Is the virus becoming weaker 
Possibly, but we have no evidence of it at this time.


Quote
or is it the younger folks thats making up the increase
Almost certainly yes. So that will help keep the apparent mortality rate down. 


Quote
or is it the improved treatment drugs and methods that is the reason deaths are not increasing at the same rate as new cases are
Almost certainly yes, and having an effect that is keeping the apparent mortality rate down.


Quote
or will there be a huge catchup in deaths in the next few weeks
We're already seeing the catchup starting. 7-day MA of daily deaths had been stable around 700-725/day while the cases were stable in the low 40K range. In the last 10 days it has now jumped to 842/day and there's nothing logically that would give us reason to believe the increase will stop.

If you had to ask my guess, I think the apparent mortality rate will be similar to the Jul/Aug spike. I think the demographics of that spike will prove to be mostly similar to this, but I think we'll have more older and more vulnerable people represented due to COVID fatigue. I think treatments are worlds better than the Mar/Apr spike, but probably only marginally better than the Jul/Aug spike. I wouldn't be shocked at all if those two things mostly balance out and we end up with similar apparent mortality numbers. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 28, 2020, 01:25:03 PM
looking back at the data since June 1 it looks like the death rate of positives is aprox 1.86%

it will be interesting to see if that continues with this latest spike

that rate assumes an 18 day lag time
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 01:26:06 PM
Why did the Jul/Aug spike attenuate in Sept//Oct?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 01:38:43 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 28, 2020, 01:05:02 PM
As stated [by me] days ago, and as stated in the CNN story, there are 4 potential explanations for the declining death rate:

  • Better treatments.
  • More testing (catching more asymptomatics).
  • Demographic change in the cases (more young/healthy people).
  • The virus is mutating to something less lethal.

  • #1 reduces the lethality of the virus not due to innate factors of the virus.
  • #2-3 does not indicate a reduction in lethality of the virus.
  • #4 has no evidence to date.

So while I'd love to consider it "fantastic news", (#1) better treatments is the only news that I'd call good. The other 3 potential reasons for a declining apparent death rate are either neutral (#2-3) or have no evidence that it is occurring (#4).


I think there's plenty of evidence that #1 is true, and is having an effect.  Which is fantastic news.

I find comfort knowing that when everyone in my family eventually catches this, because it is as inevitable as Thanos, that the docs are going to be better equipped to treat me and mine, based on their long history of experience and improvements over time.

Agree on your #2 and #3, those aren't really relevant.

And since viruses quite commonly evolve and mutate to become less deadly, in fact that's a common and consistent hallmark of viruses, there's no reason to think #4 can't or won't happen, even if we don't yet have peer-reviewed evidence that it is currently happening.

Two docs I know that have been treating this since March, one in Chicago and one in Austin, are saying that the "bad" cases that are coming through their doors now, aren't anywhere near as bad as the "bad" cases from March.  Anecdotal evidence, to be sure, but they have more of it than anyone on this message board.  So there you have it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 01:44:15 PM
My doctor and the dock doctor and the ER doctor I saw last Friday all say the same, UTee.

Germany is locking down November 4.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 28, 2020, 01:46:37 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 01:38:43 PM
And since viruses quite commonly evolve and mutate to become less deadly, in fact that's a common and consistent hallmark of viruses, there's not reason to think #4 can't or won't happen, even if we don't yet have peer-reviewed evidence that it is currently happening.

Two docs I know that have been treating this since March, one in Chicago and one in Austin, are saying that the "bad" cases that are coming through their doors now, aren't anywhere near as bad as the "bad" cases from March.  Anecdotal evidence, to be sure, but they have more of it than anyone on this message board.  So there you have it.
There is also no reason to think that it can't or won't mutate to become even worse than it is now. After all, I don't know if there's any relative difference between the lethality of the "L" strain that originated in Wuhan or the "G, GH, GR" strains that are most common now, but in one metric [transmissibility] those later strains are worse. 

That said, I've heard similar from doctors, that what they're seeing today isn't quite as bad. Perhaps that's due to earlier detection and earlier intervention, perhaps it's due to a virus mutation. I'll leave that to the epidemiologists to figure out. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 28, 2020, 01:49:54 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 28, 2020, 01:46:37 PM
There is also no reason to think that it can't or won't mutate to become even worse than it is now. After all, I don't know if there's any relative difference between the lethality of the "L" strain that originated in Wuhan or the "G, GH, GR" strains that are most common now, but in one metric [transmissibility] those later strains are worse.

That said, I've heard similar from doctors, that what they're seeing today isn't quite as bad. Perhaps that's due to earlier detection and earlier intervention, perhaps it's due to a virus mutation. I'll leave that to the epidemiologists to figure out.
doesnt history tell us the if a virus does mutate it is generally weaker

anyway thats my impression
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on October 28, 2020, 01:52:24 PM
Wisconsin v. Nebraska canceled. 12 positives at UW.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 28, 2020, 01:55:12 PM
Quote from: Hawkinole on October 28, 2020, 01:52:24 PM
Wisconsin v. Nebraska canceled. 12 positives at UW.
we will probably see more of this

can they make the game up
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 01:55:53 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 01:44:15 PM
My doctor and the dock doctor and the ER doctor I saw last Friday all say the same, UTee.

Germany is locking down November 4.
Partial lockdown, not total.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/oct/28/coronavirus-live-news-intensive-care-units-in-france-could-reach-extreme-saturation-in-two-weeks

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 01:56:29 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 28, 2020, 01:55:12 PM
we will probably see more of this

can they make the game up
This is being discussed in the Week 2 B1G thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 28, 2020, 02:34:20 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 28, 2020, 01:49:54 PM
doesnt history tell us the if a virus does mutate it is generally weaker

anyway thats my impression
It can go either way. For example, the Spanish Flu's second wave was a mutated strain that was more deadly:

https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-second-wave-resurgence

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 02:37:43 PM
A mutation that is MUCH more lethal will tend to die out more quickly for obvious reasons, think about ebola and how it spreads and then stops.

An exception would be a deadly virus that has a long latency period where folks are contagious without knowing it.

This is going to happen again, in some form, and MAYBE we can learn something from the experience?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 03:03:53 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 01:56:29 PM
This is being discussed in the Week 2 B1G thread.
Yeah but who wants to go over THERE?

I don't think the B1G really has any room in the schedule for makeups, the 12/19 date is as late as the CFP and bowls are going to wait.  I suppose they could play conference games during the post-season if they really wanted to, though.

But the additional problem is that the B1G's rules are more strict on quarantine/return-to-play than are the B12, SEC, or ACC.  Players are out for 21 days, basically.  So Wisconsin is most likely not canceling one game, but three, at this point.

Tough year, for everybody, all the way around.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 28, 2020, 03:15:05 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 03:03:53 PM
I don't think the B1G really has any room in the schedule for makeups, the 12/19 date is as late as the CFP and bowls are going to wait.  I suppose they could play conference games during the post-season if they really wanted to, though.

I believe that the B1G has already declared that any game unable to be played will be a no-contest, not postponed.

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 02:37:43 PM
A mutation that is MUCH more lethal will tend to die out more quickly for obvious reasons, think about ebola and how it spreads and then stops.

An exception would be a deadly virus that has a long latency period where folks are contagious without knowing it.

This is going to happen again, in some form, and MAYBE we can learn something from the experience?
Well that's often true, there are counterexamples. 

HIV is one of them. Prior to having the effective treatments that have been developed over the last 2 decades, it was a death sentence. But the contagious lag time between infection and showing any symptoms of your immune system deficiency is YEARS. 

And we don't need to talk about something that is MUCH more lethal. If COVID were 3-4 times more lethal than it is, that would be terrible but it still wouldn't create a lethality that would cause the infection rate to burn out the way ebola does. Especially if despite being much more lethal, there was still an asymptomatic spread aspect of it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 03:17:45 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 28, 2020, 03:15:05 PM
I believe that the B1G has already declared that any game unable to be played will be a no-contest, not postponed.
Well that's often true, there are counterexamples.

HIV is one of them. Prior to having the effective treatments that have been developed over the last 2 decades, it was a death sentence. But the contagious lag time between infection and showing any symptoms of your immune system deficiency is YEARS.

And we don't need to talk about something that is MUCH more lethal. If COVID were 3-4 times more lethal than it is, that would be terrible but it still wouldn't create a lethality that would cause the infection rate to burn out the way ebola does. Especially if despite being much more lethal, there was still an asymptomatic spread aspect of it.
Unless your name is Magic, of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 28, 2020, 03:31:01 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 03:17:45 PM
Unless your name is Magic, of course.
He came down with it just inside the treatable window luckily
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 03:59:16 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 28, 2020, 03:15:05 PM
I believe that the B1G has already declared that any game unable to be played will be a no-contest, not postponed.
Well that's often true, there are counterexamples.

HIV is one of them. Prior to having the effective treatments that have been developed over the last 2 decades, it was a death sentence. But the contagious lag time between infection and showing any symptoms of your immune system deficiency is YEARS.

And we don't need to talk about something that is MUCH more lethal. If COVID were 3-4 times more lethal than it is, that would be terrible but it still wouldn't create a lethality that would cause the infection rate to burn out the way ebola does. Especially if despite being much more lethal, there was still an asymptomatic spread aspect of it.
There's no way to know for sure, but I don't really agree with the spirit of this assertion.  Sure it might not be as lethal as ebola, but that's a pretty high bar to set.  It could be significantly less lethal than ebola and still burn itself out quickly.  So I think it would almost certainly burn out much faster if it were 3-4 times more lethal than it is currently.  The onset of symptoms would potentially be faster and more severe so there could actually be less chance for asymptomatic transmission (which even now is in doubt among doctors).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 04:07:49 PM
HIV could be said to have a long latency period where a person is asymptomatic and contagious.  And it takes a long time to kill a person, relatively.

So, it had a near 100% mortality rate, but over a longer period of time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 04:30:17 PM
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france-idUSKBN27D2WO?fbclid=IwAR132jMAWseK18HbJV-xTj-BWg0bRlHIVAn8AeiadgGoIZhdg4xVDilUOU0

France going to a pretty stiff lockdown Monday .... while schools remain open.  You read that right.

PARIS (Reuters) - France will go back into a nationwide lockdown starting this week to try to contain the COVID-19 epidemic that is again threatening to spiral out of control, French President Emmanuel Macron said in an address to the nation on Wednesday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 28, 2020, 04:33:11 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 03:59:16 PM
There's no way to know for sure, but I don't really agree with the spirit of this assertion.  Sure it might not be as lethal as ebola, but that's a pretty high bar to set.  It could be significantly less lethal than ebola and still burn itself out quickly.  So I think it would almost certainly burn out much faster if it were 3-4 times more lethal than it is currently.  The onset of symptoms would potentially be faster and more severe so there could actually be less chance for asymptomatic transmission (which even now is in doubt among doctors).
Obviously we're talking complete conjecture here about how it might happen. My only point is that it is not a foregone conclusion that mutation will make it easier to deal with. It could make it harder, potentially MUCH harder. It's random chance. 

But yes, one would assume [a dangerous word] that if the virus got much more severe, there would be a lot fewer asymptomatic cases. Logically you'd think symptoms would come on more quickly and more severely, reducing the ability to transmit the virus because you would know you have it. 

Nature doesn't always follow our logical rules, though...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 04:34:02 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 04:07:49 PM
HIV could be said to have a long latency period where a person is asymptomatic and contagious.  And it takes a long time to kill a person, relatively.

So, it had a near 100% mortality rate, but over a longer period of time.

Nobody was contracting HIV by breathing contaminated air for 15 minutes or getting coughed on.  I don't think it's very representative or worthwhile as a comparison to the airborne viruses.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 28, 2020, 04:35:07 PM
my doc said folks and children that are asymptomatic are not spreading the virus
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 04:35:19 PM
It is possible of course for a virus to have a long latency period and be highly lethal, the worst possible situation (HIV is kind of that way).

You're only hope is the method of transmission can be interrupted, as it was with HIV fairly quickly.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 04:35:44 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 28, 2020, 04:35:07 PM
my doc said folks and children that are asymptomatic are not spreading the virus
I'm not sure I believe this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 28, 2020, 04:36:59 PM
I'm not either, but he's a pretty solid guy

perhaps they are able to spread it, it's just not nearly as common as folks that are sick and showing symptoms
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 04:38:19 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 28, 2020, 04:33:11 PM
Obviously we're talking complete conjecture here about how it might happen. My only point is that it is not a foregone conclusion that mutation will make it easier to deal with. It could make it harder, potentially MUCH harder. It's random chance.

But yes, one would assume [a dangerous word] that if the virus got much more severe, there would be a lot fewer asymptomatic cases. Logically you'd think symptoms would come on more quickly and more severely, reducing the ability to transmit the virus because you would know you have it.

Nature doesn't always follow our logical rules, though...

I don't agree that it's random chance.  Viruses mutate and evolve in pretty predictable ways.  There's a reason they tend to mutate toward the weaker and less deadly, otherwise they choke themselves out.  Arguably the Spanish Flu did exactly that.

But now I'm picking nits, which is what engineers tend to do, especially with one another.  I'd say you and I are probably about 95% agreed on most of this stuff. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 04:38:54 PM
Could be harder for them to spread, without a cough/sneeze, etc. But I don't think it's 100 percent that they are not spreading.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 04:41:28 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 04:38:54 PM
Could be harder for them to spread, without a cough/sneeze, etc. But I don't think it's 100 percent that they are not spreading.
Yeah I'm not certain I believe there is ZERO spread among the asymptomatic.  But, FF's doc isn't the only one I've heard of that has said that.  

(And no I'm not talking about doctors that believe demons impregnate women or whatever :) ) 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 04:41:46 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 04:38:54 PM
Could be harder for them to spread, without a cough/sneeze, etc. But I don't think it's 100 percent that they are not spreading.

I would agree with this, less likely to spread, but people still cough/sneeze/ talk into your face, etc.

The whole thing about masks is to prevent/reduce this from asymptomatic people.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 04:42:21 PM
They have a lot of 5G stuff going up around me, maybe that is the cause.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 04:43:09 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 04:41:46 PM
I would agree with this, less likely to spread, but people still cough/sneeze/ talk into your face, etc.

The whole thing about masks is to prevent/reduce this from asymptomatic people. 

This.  And, also, from symptomatic people that are just assholes and go out while they're sick, anyway...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 28, 2020, 04:48:30 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 04:34:02 PM
Nobody was contracting HIV by breathing contaminated air for 15 minutes or getting coughed on.  I don't think it's very representative or worthwhile as a comparison to the airborne viruses.
It's worthwhile as it relates to viruses burning themselves out because of the severity of the virus. 

Ebola was brought up, but ebola doesn't spread via airborne transmission either. It's via fluids.

Where the comparison with HIV breaks down most directly is because of the way HIV kills. HIV doesn't kill you. It destroys your immune system so you end up succumbing to some other illness or combination thereof. Whereas COVID is a respiratory illness and it is its direct respiratory effects that kill you. 

IMHO the transmission method is irrelevant to the latency of the infection progressing. If HIV had been airborne like COVID, it would have nearly wiped out humanity because 99% of the world would have been infected it before anyone even knew something was happening, and then suddenly people would be dying in droves. We were lucky that it wasn't airborne. As a sexually transmitted disease, the rate of spread was naturally MUCH slower.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 04:50:16 PM
I thought most COVID deaths were pneumonia (technically).  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 04:50:53 PM
And yeah, airborne spread of a highly lethal virus that had a latency period would ....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 04:52:56 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 28, 2020, 04:48:30 PM
It's worthwhile as it relates to viruses burning themselves out because of the severity of the virus.

Ebola was brought up, but ebola doesn't spread via airborne transmission either. It's via fluids.

Where the comparison with HIV breaks down most directly is because of the way HIV kills. HIV doesn't kill you. It destroys your immune system so you end up succumbing to some other illness or combination thereof. Whereas COVID is a respiratory illness and it is its direct respiratory effects that kill you.

IMHO the transmission method is irrelevant to the latency of the infection progressing. If HIV had been airborne like COVID, it would have nearly wiped out humanity because 99% of the world would have been infected it before anyone even knew something was happening, and then suddenly people would be dying in droves. We were lucky that it wasn't airborne. As a sexually transmitted disease, the rate of spread was naturally MUCH slower.

But this is exactly my point, as to why I don't believe it's an appropriate or instructive comparison.  We've never seen an airborne virus anything like that.  

(And hopefully never will)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 28, 2020, 04:55:03 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 04:41:46 PM
The whole thing about masks is to prevent/reduce this from asymptomatic people. 
we see how well this is working worldwide
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 28, 2020, 04:55:26 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 04:43:09 PM
This.  And, also, from symptomatic people that are just assholes and go out while they're sick, anyway...
BINGO!!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 04:55:36 PM
If we had the Spanish flu event today, we'd be looking at 700,000 million deaths globally, presuming medical treatment is not more effective.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 04:56:10 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 28, 2020, 04:55:03 PM
we see how well this is working worldwide
It may have worked in Asia pretty well, and we don't know how bad things would be without masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 04:56:33 PM
...

Now they’re hit with a renewed restriction — shutting down dining rooms again — that will cost them more significant revenue. This is devastating to a backbone of Illinois’ economy. 

“All I can say is that there are a lot of tears in this place,” restaurateur Rick Bayless told the Tribune. He fears for the future of his operation, which includes Frontera Grill and Topolobampo, two of Chicago’s premier restaurants. “We didn’t know if we could make it to the end of the year anyway, and this will about cinch it.”

...

Like many employers, Pete Bournas of Psistaria Greek Taverna in Lincolnwood has endured a lifetime’s worth of turmoil since COVID-19 hit, but he also has risen to the challenge to protect his family business, his workers and customers. Psistaria serves delicious Greek fare (we’re fans). He had just reopened after remodeling when the pandemic forced him to close. He shifted the business model to takeout food and then added a large tent in the parking lot for outdoor summer dining. Business was finally humming again with socially distant dining indoors — and then came Pritzker’s order this week to close his dining room.

“I worry about the restaurant. I worry about my employees,” he tells us. “I have 40 people on staff that I’m going to have to juggle days and make sure they can put food on their own table. I’m extremely worried, but I try not to show it."

...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 05:02:00 PM
Hospitality won't make it aside from the Big Guys, and they are going to be hammered without bail outs.

That means folks who own the buildings will get hit, workers get hit, and so on down the line.  If we shut down again, it could end the economy as we know it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 28, 2020, 05:04:14 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 04:56:10 PM
It may have worked in Asia pretty well, and we don't know how bad things would be without masks.

oh, I'm sure masks are somewhat effective.  Things would obviously be worse w/o them.

So, Asia just hasn't had the percentage of cases or deaths as most of the rest of the world???

different strain or different behaviors (forced or otherwise) or different something??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 05:04:31 PM
Florida is not going to shut down again, aside from maybe Miami via local mandate, and maybe some of the college areas. 

The rest of the state is doing pretty good.

Restaurants are not causing this spread. It's parties and other large gatherings.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 05:06:01 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 28, 2020, 05:04:14 PM
oh, I'm sure masks are somewhat effective.  Things would obviously be worse w/o them.

So, Asia just hasn't had the percentage of cases or deaths as most of the rest of the world???

different strain or different behaviors (forced or otherwise) or different something??
CCP is not being truthful in their reporting.

Japan and South Korea are essentially islands (I know SK is not, but when your only neighbor is North Korea, it may as well be).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 28, 2020, 05:10:12 PM
I'd like to think that if everyone wore a mask properly and every time they went out or got close to another person the virus would be defeated, but I'm just not believing it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 28, 2020, 05:13:37 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 04:38:19 PM
I don't agree that it's random chance.  Viruses mutate and evolve in pretty predictable ways.  There's a reason they tend to mutate toward the weaker and less deadly, otherwise they choke themselves out.  Arguably the Spanish Flu did exactly that.

But now I'm picking nits, which is what engineers tend to do, especially with one another.  I'd say you and I are probably about 95% agreed on most of this stuff. :)
Well, most mutations are bad. By that I don't mean "more dangerous", I mean most mutations make the virus less effective at being a successful virus. 

Which makes sense. You've mutated to be so good at what you do that you've created a global pandemic. You're on top of the evolutionary heap! Where do you have to go from there but down? 

So I agree that viruses tend to mutate toward weaker, because if they get TOO good at killing people, then they usually don't spread as quickly. 

But the bold parts are important words, because they signify that these tendencies aren't hard laws of nature that are never controverted. 

So yeah, we agree. I just hate when people assume that we won't see a more dangerous mutation because we don't usually see that. As the Spanish Flu showed, maybe it choked itself out more quickly regarding how many people overall it infected, but it killed a HELL of a lot more people than we think the original strain would have which was less deadly. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 05:21:07 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 28, 2020, 05:10:12 PM
I'd like to think that if everyone wore a mask properly and every time they went out or got close to another person the virus would be defeated, but I'm just not believing it.
Of course it wouldn't be defeated.  A mask is at best an incomplete and only partially effective measure, but it's likely better than nothing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 05:23:50 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 28, 2020, 05:04:14 PM
oh, I'm sure masks are somewhat effective.  Things would obviously be worse w/o them.

So, Asia just hasn't had the percentage of cases or deaths as most of the rest of the world???

different strain or different behaviors (forced or otherwise) or different something??
There is some evidence for different strain.  Mask wearing of course is socially mandated in effect in most Asian countries, including places like Hong Kong where the numbers MAY be accurate.  Africa is also not seeing high rates of infection.

There is a LOT about this I do not understand at all, I've said for months I think we're missing something important.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 28, 2020, 05:32:33 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 28, 2020, 05:04:14 PM
oh, I'm sure masks are somewhat effective.  Things would obviously be worse w/o them.

So, Asia just hasn't had the percentage of cases or deaths as most of the rest of the world???

different strain or different behaviors (forced or otherwise) or different something??
The sciencedaily article I posted a few days ago regarding strains might mean quite a bit here. The strains that appeared in Europe in Jan/Feb have pretty much taken over, which suggests they're much more transmissible than the original Wuhan strain. 

So you couple aggressive containment measures that started before those mutations with limited opportunity for those mutations to have been introduced into Asian countries, AND a very mask-friendly culture, and to me it gives you an explanation for why they haven't gotten hit on the 2nd wave. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 28, 2020, 05:48:43 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 28, 2020, 05:10:12 PM
I'd like to think that if everyone wore a mask properly and every time they went out or got close to another person the virus would be defeated, but I'm just not believing it.
Yeah, but you have to think about how most people consider masks...


We wear masks around strangers, because stranger danger. And then we don't have the same policy around people we know personally, because we have a natural human instinct to think they're safer than strangers. This is human behavior. I'm guilty of it too. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 06:25:41 PM
I don't think outdoor spread is really much of a thing, so that birthday party was fine.

I mean, sitting directly next to an infected person for an hour, under a low canopy, with no breeze at all?  Maybe.

But that's not the way any outdoor events I've attended, have gone.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 28, 2020, 11:15:21 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 05:02:00 PM
Hospitality won't make it aside from the Big Guys, and they are going to be hammered without bail outs.

That means folks who own the buildings will get hit, workers get hit, and so on down the line.  If we shut down again, it could end the economy as we know it.
Yeah, we'll go back to living in caves and using the barter system.....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 28, 2020, 11:45:18 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 28, 2020, 11:15:21 PM
Yeah, we'll go back to living in caves and using the barter system.....
Have you ever considered that hyperbole isn't the best discussion strategy? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 28, 2020, 11:55:52 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 28, 2020, 11:45:18 PM
Have you ever considered that hyperbole isn't the best discussion strategy?
It's the best way to get into internet spats with people - Better than my usual way, and that's saying something. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 29, 2020, 12:26:52 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 28, 2020, 11:45:18 PM
Have you ever considered that hyperbole isn't the best discussion strategy?
I'm making light of the dramatics of badge's post.  Hyperbole is as good as any other strategy when no one's mind can be changed through rational discussion.  Do you disagree?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 06:07:38 AM
 Some folks lack empathy for those who work restaurants, hotels and motels, conventions, airlines, etc.

The wife incidentally is incensed over Macron's next steps.  HIs approval rating now is 29%.  He has angered nearly everyone.  Now, his next step on COVID is something very damaging to the French economy and people without being adequate to do much about the spread.  They had over 36,000 new cases reported yesterday on a population a fifth of the US, over a million active cases, 3,000 said to be critical, which at least is a "good" ratio.

The US has nearly 17,000 serious cases out of 60,000 cases reported yesterday, not as good a ratio.  We might count "serious" differently, I don't know how that is tabulated.

I think either you shut everything down but critical industries or you leave everything open except large groups and bars and maybe a couple other items.

I was hoping Georgia would stay static or decline in new cases, without much expectation of that, and indeed the new cases reported now is clearly trending back up, not all that fast, but trending, up to around 1,700 now from a low point of late around 1,100.  France would love those figures adjusted for population (6.4x).

Europe overall is in bad and worsening shape.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 29, 2020, 06:36:39 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 29, 2020, 12:26:52 AM
 Hyperbole is as good as any other strategy when no one's mind can be changed through rational discussion.  
Your name and rational discussion has never appeared in the same sentence in anyone's minds,save your own
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 29, 2020, 06:42:58 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 06:07:38 AM
Some folks lack empathy for those who work restaurants, hotels and motels, conventions, airlines, etc.

The wife incidentally is incensed over Macron's next steps.  HIs approval rating now is 29%.  He has angered nearly everyone.  Now, his next step on COVID is something very damaging to the French economy and people without being adequate to do much about the spread.  They had over 36,000 new cases reported yesterday on a population a fifth of the US, over a million active cases, 3,000 said to be critical, which at least is a "good" ratio.

The US has nearly 17,000 serious cases out of 60,000 cases reported yesterday, not as good a ratio.  We might count "serious" differently, I don't know how that is tabulated.

I think either you shut everything down but critical industries or you leave everything open except large groups and bars and maybe a couple other items.

I was hoping Georgia would stay static or decline in new cases, without much expectation of that, and indeed the new cases reported now is clearly trending back up, not all that fast, but trending, up to around 1,700 now from a low point of late around 1,100.  France would love those figures adjusted for population (6.4x).

Europe overall is in bad and worsening shape. 



Our healthcare and response is better than theirs. Karma is a bitch too. I remember them (particularly France and Macron) being highly critical of the USA back in July.

"Don't they care?"


Dumbass. 

No. We don't care. We're all gonna die, except those who hide out at home every day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 29, 2020, 06:45:47 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 29, 2020, 12:26:52 AM
I'm making light of the dramatics of badge's post.  Hyperbole is as good as any other strategy when no one's mind can be changed through rational discussion.  Do you disagree?
Are you hoping businesses fail? WTF man. There will be no taxpayers to pay you if that happens. You WILL be living in a cave. Not a basement. A cave.

I've got almost 40 people depending on me for a job, and for me to provide that job, I need a strong economy.

Hyperbole my ass. It's reality. Try living in it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 29, 2020, 06:49:36 AM
Thank You Badge Sponge Bob Smear Pants that you're responding to is probably a card carying member of Antifa.If they're desperate enough to have him
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 06:55:49 AM
I gather to some the concept of balancing evils as well as possible is lack of empathy.  So be it.  Shutting everything, or most everything down, is an evil.  Letting the virus spread without effort is an evil.  It's not all the one or all the other.

Even Macron sees that, though I suspect his half measure may be worse than no measure because apparently he missed the spreaders, the youth (yutes) who are out partying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 29, 2020, 06:59:12 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 29, 2020, 06:42:58 AM
No. We don't care. We're all gonna die, except those who hide out at home every day.
And then they'll have to come out and fend for themselves because Bezos won't have the servants to drop goods at their door step anymore
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 07:18:59 AM
I don't view it as hyperbole to opine that a collapse of the hospitality/travel sector would reverberate negatively through the remainder of the economy.  It already has of course.  Government bailouts can carry it for a while.  But then you are propping up an inactive industry with "fake" money fabricated from nothing.

I have chatted with several local restauranteurs here and they all say it's bad.  They are on the edge.  Nationally, that's a lot of people, not to mention airlines, motels, convention centers, etc. who are also involved in this.

If they start failing dramatically in numbers, it would hammer the economy, of that there is no doubt, all of the economy.  Perhaps it would survive, longer term, but it would be drastically changed, not for the better.  Imagine all the workers not paying rent now, so the owners of apts start going under, and it ripples out from there.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 29, 2020, 07:26:03 AM
I'm glad I am not in the commercial/office real estate business. Downtown Chicago is a ghost town. Not all from the virus, but that (used to be) is for another thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 07:39:52 AM
I worry a lot about the new office space being built around me.  Most of the complexes are multi use commercial/residential/retail.  The residential part might be OK because of low interest rates.

Quite a few retail outlets now remain vacant street level on stuff built in the past few years.  And we've had closings of some restaurants in that space.  This one has 64 condos that start at $865 K, which is pricey here for a 2 bdr 1200 sf condo.

http://1105westpeachtree.com/

https://public.earthcam.net/tJ90CoLmq7TzrY396Yd88DUl4kiXWj4obFnEA1dCgXE/1105_west_peachtree/1105_west_peachtree/view_1

Our physical therapy is across the street so we walk by it at least weekly.  This is one of several similar projects nearby.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 08:38:09 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/29/us-gdp-report-third-quarter-2020.html

Some better than expected news on GDP growth.

And no, this doesn't mean I'm apathetic about how many have died.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 29, 2020, 08:51:11 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 29, 2020, 12:26:52 AM
I'm making light of the dramatics of badge's post.  Hyperbole is as good as any other strategy when no one's mind can be changed through rational discussion.  Do you disagree?
I actually do. It's not going to be any more effective in changing minds, but it makes things a lot more yell-y. Which is both unpleasant and not changing minds. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 08:51:33 AM
=AZX4if4mjXoI9Xr0ycztHWtzMMjcCbKDXeXFpPX-OR8e-jwasO1ht4b99NOcOc1r9ZGeyhDmlJpgIaphg5W7pRDXKTzQfVVLuOektF5yskCgaxQU2L_SPfJo8ht0yruUrGMgEIvOH5UAT0uBUiFjJOttnvDwSYtXEYPdAgFiJRNqiZtm56C-iWPBRPYxQoAFiW4&__tn__=-UC%2CP-R"]WSJ Opinion (http://"https://www.facebook.com/WSJOpinion/?__cft__[0)
 
=AZX4if4mjXoI9Xr0ycztHWtzMMjcCbKDXeXFpPX-OR8e-jwasO1ht4b99NOcOc1r9ZGeyhDmlJpgIaphg5W7pRDXKTzQfVVLuOektF5yskCgaxQU2L_SPfJo8ht0yruUrGMgEIvOH5UAT0uBUiFjJOttnvDwSYtXEYPdAgFiJRNqiZtm56C-iWPBRPYxQoAFiW4&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R"]1h (http://"https://www.facebook.com/WSJOpinion/posts/1614362972077504?__cft__[0)  · 

The most reasonable conclusion from the available scientific evidence is that community mask mandates have—at most—a small effect on the course of the pandemic, writes Dr. Joseph A. Ladapo of UCLA

(https://on.wsj.com/3oyVI37?fbclid=IwAR3hqSSbOppuRityDQZZiCYoLJhLLZIieRTyguraZI5sVqUIOaPaEymYAdo)[img width=590 height=307.969 alt=Opinion | Masks Are a Distraction From the Pandemic Reality]https://external-atl3-2.xx.fbcdn.net/safe_image.php?d=AQCfMxnonI8Gt6iP&w=750&h=391&url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.wsj.net%2Fim-250985%2Fsocial&cfs=1&sx=27&sy=0&sw=1226&sh=640&ext=jpg&_nc_cb=1&_nc_hash=AQCMHqBq57FILHi3[/img]
 (https://on.wsj.com/3oyVI37?fbclid=IwAR3hqSSbOppuRityDQZZiCYoLJhLLZIieRTyguraZI5sVqUIOaPaEymYAdo)
[/size]WSJ.COM
Opinion | Masks Are a Distraction From the Pandemic Reality
Viruses inevitably spread




This might be true, I don't know of course, but a small benefit seems worth it to me for a minor inconvenience.  And even a small cut in R naught can be significant over time of course.
 (https://on.wsj.com/3oyVI37?fbclid=IwAR0fkC03VHTDlTDPEiswBplZOKqCTbh_x9_VlzR0-ibtqTXXWwxPvLsY8bc)


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 08:53:33 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 29, 2020, 08:51:11 AM
I actually do. It's not going to be any more effective in changing minds, but it makes things a lot more yell-y. Which is both unpleasant and not changing minds.

What may change minds around here is data, facts, logic, not hyperbole and dismissiveness.  Maybe it makes a poster feel better to think he has just blown someone out of the water with a snide comment, maybe so, have at it.  It also generates division on a topic where everyone should be united at least in aim, to strive for accuracy and truth to the extent possible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 29, 2020, 08:55:43 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 07:18:59 AM
I don't view it as hyperbole to opine that a collapse of the hospitality/travel sector would reverberate negatively through the remainder of the economy.  It already has of course.  Government bailouts can carry it for a while.  But then you are propping up an inactive industry with "fake" money fabricated from nothing.

I have chatted with several local restauranteurs here and they all say it's bad.  They are on the edge.  Nationally, that's a lot of people, not to mention airlines, motels, convention centers, etc. who are also involved in this.

If they start failing dramatically in numbers, it would hammer the economy, of that there is no doubt, all of the economy.  Perhaps it would survive, longer term, but it would be drastically changed, not for the better.  Imagine all the workers not paying rent now, so the owners of apts start going under, and it ripples out from there.


A part of me wonders where the damage from limits ends and the unavoidable pandemic damage begins. 

Like, a friend traveled for a CFB game a couple weeks back. Got a flight that is almost never cheap at a good rate and a hotel in a college town where you just don't get that. And it was at a game that was more than 3,000 below reduced capacity (25%). 

Like a lot of folks would naturally stay home, but how many is an interesting question. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 08:58:39 AM
Yeah, the wife's been wanting to go to Brazil and I checked fares a month or so back.  Delta One was $2500, it's usually triple that.  So, I said "Call your friend and let's go."

And then the Brazilian numbers showed a brazilian people had the virus and I nixed it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 29, 2020, 09:13:41 AM
The cure cannot be worse than the cause. There has to be balance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 29, 2020, 09:16:56 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 08:51:33 AM
the most reasonable conclusion from the available scientific evidence is that community mask mandates have—at most—a small effect on the course of the pandemic, writes Dr. Joseph A. Ladapo of UCLA







This might be true, I don't know of course, but a small benefit seems worth it to me for a minor inconvenience.  And even a small cut in R naught can be significant over time of course.
 (https://on.wsj.com/3oyVI37?fbclid=IwAR0fkC03VHTDlTDPEiswBplZOKqCTbh_x9_VlzR0-ibtqTXXWwxPvLsY8bc)



I agree with both statements
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 29, 2020, 09:17:54 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 29, 2020, 09:13:41 AM
The cure cannot be worse than the cause. There has to be balance.
hopefully, getting past the election might help with balance

I doubt it, but I'm a bit hopeful
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 09:22:29 AM
I agree, the election has pushed some into either extreme, shut everything down now or open everything up now and let it run.

I don't think anyone here is in either camp, really.  Hopefully.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 29, 2020, 09:43:26 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 09:22:29 AM
I agree, the election has pushed some into either extreme, shut everything down now or open everything up now and let it run.

I don't think anyone here is in either camp, really.  Hopefully.
Tough to say. Some offer ideas about what we should be doing NOW. Some don't or won't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 09:50:29 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 29, 2020, 09:43:26 AM
Tough to say. Some offer ideas about what we should be doing NOW. Some don't or won't.
The ideas I've seen offered are not absolute nor severe, they are middle of the road somewhere.

And yes, some who criticize never offer an alternative, so be it.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 29, 2020, 09:57:16 AM
Im not sure what more we can do and still have some sort of an economy

I agree masks arent the end all to a solution but couldnt hurt

best to keep going in the same direction and wait for a vaccine
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 10:31:50 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/29/coronavirus-moderna-says-it-is-actively-preparing-for-launch-of-vaccine.html

Vaccine news continues to appear promising.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 10:36:40 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/eg5eSkf.png)

What could have caused that September dip?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 29, 2020, 11:26:19 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 29, 2020, 12:26:52 AM
I'm making light of the dramatics of badge's post.  Hyperbole is as good as any other strategy when no one's mind can be changed through rational discussion.  Do you disagree?
That was Cincy, not Badge. 

And quite frankly one of the potential outcomes of this thing is ending the economy as we know it. For the past 7 months, people with the opportunity have been WFH. People have been changing their behaviors in many ways, such as cooking their own meals instead of going out for meals. People have been looking for alternative entertainment options--and artists like musicians have been experimenting with different streaming-style "concerts". 

How much of this will persist? Per commercial real estate, how many industries will reduce their office space footprints as they've realized people can WFH effectively? How many aggregate restaurants can still support themselves if people go from an average of X number of meals per week cooked at home to 3X meals, and thus are not going out? What if people start to realize that things like sports or concerts are actually a better experience watching from home than paying $100+ for nosebleed seats where you practically need binoculars to know what's going on on the field/stage? 

This thing can very well end/remake the economy as we know it, without resorting to living in caves and using the barter system. 

But instead, you want to claim you have the moral high ground at all times, and act like the rest of us are indifferent to the health and suffering of our countrymen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 29, 2020, 11:29:55 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 10:36:40 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/eg5eSkf.png)

What could have caused that September dip?

I don't think looking at the entire country's data is particularly useful or instructive.  Or even an entire state. if it's a large one.

For example, here in the Austin metro area, there is no "September dip" because there's no "October spike."  Cases have trended down steadily since the July spike, and then has held relatively steady since August.  We're seeing some slight increases in hospitalizations, but if it's going to be another spike, it won't hit that until mid/late November at this point, and the case counts themselves haven't increased sharply enough to make me think the hospitalizations will do so dramatically.

As for why it trended down here, since July, it's pretty easy to say that after people relaxed in May/June, they became vigilant again in July.  Interior spaces like bars were closed down, restaurants were taken back down to 25%, mask-wearing became ubiquitous, etc.  Those are the clear drivers in MY area.  I can't speak for anywhere else though.


Edit: For anyone interested, here's the link to the Austin/Travis County metro area data: https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 29, 2020, 11:40:19 AM
Northern states are seeing the worst spikes in the key metrics from what I can see. It got cold out.

The worst spreaders of this are not restaurants. Bars are different, especially when people start to get hammered and let their guard down.

The worst spreaders are the private gatherings. That is what the experts are saying. 

But hey - close the restaurants. Screw private business. That's what it feels like to me anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 29, 2020, 12:00:44 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 29, 2020, 11:26:19 AM
This thing can very well end/remake the economy as we know it, without resorting to living in caves and using the barter system.

But instead, you want to claim you have the moral high ground at all times, and act like the rest of us are indifferent to the health and suffering of our countrymen.
Well said
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 29, 2020, 12:02:43 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 29, 2020, 08:55:43 AM
A part of me wonders where the damage from limits ends and the unavoidable pandemic damage begins.

Like, a friend traveled for a CFB game a couple weeks back. Got a flight that is almost never cheap at a good rate and a hotel in a college town where you just don't get that. And it was at a game that was more than 3,000 below reduced capacity (25%).

Like a lot of folks would naturally stay home, but how many is an interesting question.
That's what I wonder too. If everything is "open", how many people will still go? Will it be enough for these businesses to survive anyway? 

I really miss travel. My wife and I loved going places. Sometimes that was wrapping a weekend around one of my business trips so there was airfare/hotel. Sometimes that was a trip to wine country (Paso or Napa) involving a fair bit of consumer spending, dining out, and hotel/airbnb. Sometimes we'd just get away for a weekend in San Diego. 

I've put all that off, and will continue to put all that off, until and unless we either have a vaccine or reach a point by spring where all hope of a vaccine is gone. 

Now, I'm just one anecdotal point. I don't know if most people would be like me, or if most people would return to their old ways if things were reopened. But I'm one example of several thousand dollars of economic activity over the course of a year that won't simply return just because Gavin Newsom says things can reopen--it will take more than that.

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 29, 2020, 09:13:41 AM
The cure cannot be worse than the cause. There has to be balance.
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 29, 2020, 09:43:26 AM
Tough to say. Some offer ideas about what we should be doing NOW. Some don't or won't.
I've offered ideas, mostly about messaging reasonable ways to remain safe in a world of partial reopening. 

I do wonder where your balance point is. It's easy to say "the cure can't be worse than the disease", but what's your concrete balance point?

Would you allow restaurant reopening for indoor at full capacity? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 29, 2020, 01:07:33 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 29, 2020, 12:02:43 PM
I do wonder where your balance point is. It's easy to say "the cure can't be worse than the disease", but what's your concrete balance point?

Would you allow restaurant reopening for indoor at full capacity?
Full capacity, no. 50% yes.

Full capacity is allowed here in FL, but most places are holding to the 50 or so. They are making it work. Outside dining is of course common here too.

If I owned a place up North, I'd be super pissed. Businesses are being killed by decree - a decree that is not necessary.

The City of Chicago and State of Illinois have not laid off one employee. Not ONE. Don't think the businesses being crushed don't notice that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 01:09:26 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 29, 2020, 12:02:43 PM
I've offered ideas, mostly about messaging reasonable ways to remain safe in a world of partial reopening.

I do wonder where your balance point is. It's easy to say "the cure can't be worse than the disease", but what's your concrete balance point?

Would you allow restaurant reopening for indoor at full capacity?
I've read your stuff with more interest than most here, and learned things, which is good obviously.  We had lunch today inside, they had marked off half the tables.  

I would not go full at this point, but each state and locality may be different.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 29, 2020, 01:15:29 PM
I haven't dined inside in Austin even once since restaurants reopened last May.  That's my limit of comfort, I'm just not willing to do it.

But, my family and have I dined out at least once and sometimes twice, every week, since May.  Always outside on patios.  It was warm in July and August, but shaded patios are the norm around here.  I'd guess that over 50% of restaurants in the area have outdoor dining, even the little places in strip centers often have a few tables out on the sidewalk in front.  A large number also have space heaters so that they can extend their outdoor capabilities into the winter. 

I've also frequented outdoor biergartens at local breweries, and a couple of outdoor patios of beer-bars.  But I wouldn't venture to an indoor-only nightclub type of bar right now, even if any were open.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 01:23:02 PM
We have dined inside three times, we were alone in the room each time except the server.

Today, for lunch, we would have dined on the patio, but there is a large construction project adjacent making noise.  A lot of noise.

It's an Italian place, La Pulcinella, really good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 29, 2020, 01:32:05 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 29, 2020, 01:15:29 PM
I haven't dined inside in Austin even once since restaurants reopened last May.  That's my limit of comfort, I'm just not willing to do it.

But, my family and have I dined out at least once and sometimes twice, every week, since May. Always outside on patios.  It was warm in July and August, but shaded patios are the norm around here.  I'd guess that over 50% of restaurants in the area have outdoor dining, even the little places in strip centers often have a few tables out on the sidewalk in front.  A large number also have space heaters so that they can extend their outdoor capabilities into the winter. 

I've also frequented outdoor biergartens at local breweries, and a couple of outdoor patios of beer-bars.  But I wouldn't venture to an indoor-only nightclub type of bar right now, even if any were open.
Yep, I think your estimate of the risk with outdoor spaces is less than mine, but overall I consider outdoor spaces pretty safe. 

As mentioned I've probably pushed things a little more than I'd like by spending time with people outside my household in outdoor spaces, but to some extent I just couldn't take the isolation any more.

Tonight we're seeing my estranged brother and his wife. Due to family drama I cut them off over 3 years ago despite the fact that they'd moved to less than 20 miles away from me. His wife [who caused the problem] is trying to correct it. Going to be at an outdoor winery/restaurant. I suppose the good thing is that I'm more worried about how this is going to go than I am about contracting COVID lol...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 29, 2020, 01:38:27 PM
There is always going to be risk with this thing. How people personally manage is the biggest challenge.

You can't fix stupid, but you can avoid it.

We've had a lot of guys in here, working, so I bought a thermometer. They don't mind either. 

They all tell me they are being VERY careful, because they want to WORK.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 29, 2020, 02:12:14 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 29, 2020, 01:32:05 PM
Yep, I think your estimate of the risk with outdoor spaces is less than mine, but overall I consider outdoor spaces pretty safe.

As mentioned I've probably pushed things a little more than I'd like by spending time with people outside my household in outdoor spaces, but to some extent I just couldn't take the isolation any more.

Tonight we're seeing my estranged brother and his wife. Due to family drama I cut them off over 3 years ago despite the fact that they'd moved to less than 20 miles away from me. His wife [who caused the problem] is trying to correct it. Going to be at an outdoor winery/restaurant. I suppose the good thing is that I'm more worried about how this is going to go than I am about contracting COVID lol...
Ha!  Yeah...


I definitely have little concern about outdoor activities.  Maybe I'm wrong, but we go out to eat with my brother's family (him, his wife, and my niece) regularly, and we've had them over to the pool outside many times.  Also, same thing for my friend Bald Greg and his kids (who some on here have met because BG ran the tailgate party with me).  I suppose you could call them our "pod" but we're even less formal than that.

We've also gone out to eat-- outside-- with my parents several times.  We'll be doing so again tomorrow night, since today is my mom's bday.

If that is considered risky behavior, then I've been extremely risky.  And haven't had any issues, either, with almost 6 months of data behind it.  So there you have it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 29, 2020, 02:18:21 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 29, 2020, 02:12:14 PM
If that is considered risky behavior, then I've been extremely risky.  And haven't had any issues, either, with almost 6 months of data behind it.  So there you have it.
Well, I don't know about "haven't had any issues".

If you ask Badge, everyone's already had it. Probably twice :57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 29, 2020, 02:19:21 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 29, 2020, 02:18:21 PM
Well, I don't know about "haven't had any issues".

If you ask Badge, everyone's already had it. Probably twice :57:
HA!

Indeed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 02:22:33 PM
We have about 10 million known (reported) cases in the US (327 million population).  Let's triple that and round it, and we get that about 1% of the population has been infected over 6 months.  Where you live can differ of course.

But, your odds of encountering a contagious person are quite low, no matter your safety efforts.  And then do you spend enough time in close proximity with them?

We probably "pass" about 100 people a day, by that I include walking on the street or in the park, but we spent time in proximity with none of them, maybe brief seconds, so I figure my exposure risk is very small for ONE DAY.

I think individual risk is quite low with even reasonable precautions.  But, the public health risk multiplies that over millions of people.

I mentioned my kid in Texas contracted it in March, an infected person came to their HQ and shook hands and confabbed etc.  Nobody knew.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 29, 2020, 02:22:41 PM
I doubt many have had it twice, but many more have had it than testing or illness has confirmed. Probably at least 10 times as many.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 29, 2020, 04:18:58 PM
My 27-year-old daughter just phoned me to let me know that she has tested positive. 

She is healthy and has almost no symptoms besides a small sniffle and occasional cough.

She is a PICU nurse who is not working now but attending anesthesiology program which is now a doctorate program.  Her life consists of being in class and then being in clinicals and labs at the hospital. She has virtually not left the house otherwise.

She has no idea where she got it as she is not attending any events and is a very strict user of a mask, And is often in an N 95 mask as is required at her hospital.   

I was shocked to learn that the hospital that she is currently at on rotation for her degree is not testing people for Covid!  They are treating patients and people are doing elective surgeries and they have made a decision to not test patients.  I was simply blown away by this.

And this is in the state of Michigan. My daughter informed me that most hospitals that she is aware of are definitely testing but the one she’s working at right now is not.

That scares the shit out of me – – when the scientists are not following the obvious science.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on October 29, 2020, 04:22:35 PM
Mask seem to make no difference in the spread

https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/29/these-12-graphs-show-mask-mandates-do-nothing-to-stop-covid/?fbclid=IwAR01t2704_7xfrX08HmccDXzXZeeW0moL4hM0iUG0hafhfXu4KeAFsN-4rQ (https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/29/these-12-graphs-show-mask-mandates-do-nothing-to-stop-covid/?fbclid=IwAR01t2704_7xfrX08HmccDXzXZeeW0moL4hM0iUG0hafhfXu4KeAFsN-4rQ)

From the CDC
Parameter values Table 1
[th]Parameter[/th]
[th]Scenario 1[/th]
[th]Scenario 2[/th]
[th]Scenario 3[/th]
[th]Scenario 4[/th]
[th]Scenario 5: Current Best Estimate[/th]


[th]R0*[/th]


2.04.02.5
[th]Infection Fatality Ratio†[/th]


0-19 years: 0.00002
20-49 years: 0.00007
50-69 years: 0.0025
70+ years: 0.028		0-19 years: 0.0001
20-49 years: 0.0003
50-69 years: 0.010
70+ years: 0.093		0-19 years: 0.00003
20-49 years: 0.0002
50-69 years: 0.005
70+ years: 0.054
[th]Percent of infections that are asymptomatic§[/th]


10%70%10%70%40%
[th]Infectiousness of asymptomatic individuals relative to symptomatic[/th]


25%100%25%100%75%
[th]Percentage of transmission occurring prior to symptom onset**[/th]


30%70%30%70%50%


Look at the Fatality Ratio.  Almost no change of dying, if you are under 50.  Not much worse if you are under 70.

CDC article is here  https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html)

Chart didn't format well. It is in the article

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 04:24:09 PM
https://www.foxnews.com/health/genetic-mutation-for-coronavirus-may-have-contributed-to-europes-second-wave-report

Yes, that is Fox, didn't see it anywhere else, suggests a new mutation accounts for the surge in Europe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 29, 2020, 04:44:57 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on October 29, 2020, 04:22:35 PM
Mask seem to make no difference in the spread

https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/29/these-12-graphs-show-mask-mandates-do-nothing-to-stop-covid/?fbclid=IwAR01t2704_7xfrX08HmccDXzXZeeW0moL4hM0iUG0hafhfXu4KeAFsN-4rQ (https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/29/these-12-graphs-show-mask-mandates-do-nothing-to-stop-covid/?fbclid=IwAR01t2704_7xfrX08HmccDXzXZeeW0moL4hM0iUG0hafhfXu4KeAFsN-4rQ)

There are so many issues with that one that I don't have the time to take it down... 

I'll just start that with a cursory review of merely the abstracts of the four studies they purport to say that masks don't work, they all said masks work--some said that the purpose was reduce of spread [i.e. potentially infecting OTHERS] rather than individual protection, i.e. reducing R0. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 29, 2020, 04:49:13 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 04:24:09 PM
https://www.foxnews.com/health/genetic-mutation-for-coronavirus-may-have-contributed-to-europes-second-wave-report

Yes, that is Fox, didn't see it anywhere else, suggests a new mutation accounts for the surge in Europe.
Interesting. I tried to click through to the FT piece that they were referencing, but that was subscription only...

If anyone can find a link to the actual study, I'd like to check it out. 

That previous article I posted from sciencedaily was from August, I believe, regarding the 6 known strains at that time. I would love to see newer info. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 29, 2020, 04:55:18 PM
The White House Coronavirus Task Force in its latest report warned Iowa officials that small gatherings in people's homes are "significantly" increasing spread of coronavirus in the state as the weather cools and outdoor activities are more limited.

The report, dated Monday but released by the Iowa Department of Public Health to reporters on Wednesday night, warns that "current transmissions are linked to home gatherings," as the state faces a surge in new cases, deaths and record hospitalizations.

The experts say Iowa in the "red zone" for cases with 101 or more new cases per 100,000 population last week the 10th highest rate in the country. More than 121,000 Iowans have tested positive and 1,691 have died from COVID-19 since the pandemic began, as of data collected Thursday morning.

The document urges Iowa officials to limit large and small gatherings in an effort to stem the spread, which echoes from previous recommendations in recent weeks.


This comes as 605 Iowans are in the hospital with COVID-19, a new record-number that has continued to rise over the last month. Gov. Reynolds has insisted that the health care system has the resources to manage the surge, but Iowa doctors have cautioned that if this trend continues, it could overwhelm hospitals.

The White House experts in their report also notify Iowa leaders that hospitals could be at risk.

"All indicators of community spread are increasing, including percent of nursing homes with positive staff members and residents," the report says. "And community spread is increasing hospital admissions, leading to potential resource constraints."

The state is receiving nearly one million rapid tests from the federal government, and the experts this week said such tests perform best in school settings. Iowa's schools need to have at least 50% of their instruction in person, according to Gov. Kim Reynolds' proclamation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 05:40:17 PM
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1

A variant of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in early summer 2020, presumably in Spain, and has since spread to multiple European countries. The variant was first observed in Spain in June and has been at frequencies above 40% since July. Outside of Spain, the frequency of this variant has increased from very low values prior to 15th July to 40-70% in Switzerland, Ireland, and the United Kingdom in September. It is also prevalent in Norway, Latvia, the Netherlands, and France. Little can be said about other European countries because few recent sequences are available. Sequences in this cluster (20A.EU1) differ from ancestral sequences at 6 or more positions, including the mutation A222V in the spike protein and A220V in the nucleoprotein. We show that this variant was exported from Spain to other European countries multiple times and that much of the diversity of this cluster in Spain is observed across Europe. It is currently unclear whether this variant is spreading because of a transmission advantage of the virus or whether high incidence in Spain followed by dissemination through tourists is sufficient to explain the rapid rise in multiple countries.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on October 29, 2020, 05:49:53 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 02:22:33 PM
We have about 10 million known (reported) cases in the US (327 million population).  Let's triple that and round it, and we get that about 1% of the population has been infected over 6 months.  Where you live can differ of course.

But, your odds of encountering a contagious person are quite low, no matter your safety efforts.  And then do you spend enough time in close proximity with them?

We probably "pass" about 100 people a day, by that I include walking on the street or in the park, but we spent time in proximity with none of them, maybe brief seconds, so I figure my exposure risk is very small for ONE DAY.

I think individual risk is quite low with even reasonable precautions.  But, the public health risk multiplies that over millions of people.

I mentioned my kid in Texas contracted it in March, an infected person came to their HQ and shook hands and confabbed etc.  Nobody knew.
You're off by a full order of magnitude. 30 million of 327 million is about 10%, not 1%
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 29, 2020, 06:08:09 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 05:40:17 PM
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1

A variant of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in early summer 2020, presumably in Spain, and has since spread to multiple European countries. The variant was first observed in Spain in June and has been at frequencies above 40% since July. Outside of Spain, the frequency of this variant has increased from very low values prior to 15th July to 40-70% in Switzerland, Ireland, and the United Kingdom in September. It is also prevalent in Norway, Latvia, the Netherlands, and France. Little can be said about other European countries because few recent sequences are available. Sequences in this cluster (20A.EU1) differ from ancestral sequences at 6 or more positions, including the mutation A222V in the spike protein and A220V in the nucleoprotein. We show that this variant was exported from Spain to other European countries multiple times and that much of the diversity of this cluster in Spain is observed across Europe. It is currently unclear whether this variant is spreading because of a transmission advantage of the virus or whether high incidence in Spain followed by dissemination through tourists is sufficient to explain the rapid rise in multiple countries.
Thanks. Full PDF: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1.full.pdf

From a reading, it suggests this strain absolutely might be outcompeting previous strains when it comes to transmission, i.e. more transmissible. As is typical, the scientists are not claiming that conclusively [as they shouldn't], but their discussion and numbers suggest it. 

What is yet unknown is whether this mutation affects mortality in any way. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 29, 2020, 06:12:52 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on October 29, 2020, 05:49:53 PM
You're off by a full order of magnitude. 30 million of 327 million is about 10%, not 1%
Absolutely correct.

I would point out that one of the key tenets though was a discussion of likelihood of being around someone who has the virus and is contagious. 

6 months is ~24 weeks. If you assume a 2 week period of contagion (which is overbroad, but that's the typical quarantine), that means that you can then cut those 24 weeks into roughly 12 2-week periods because people who had it in April aren't a problem to you now...

I.e. if we suggest 10% of the nation has had the virus, that doesn't mean you have a 10% chance of encountering someone with the virus. It means you have a 10% divided by 12 chance of encountering someone who has an active virus right now. Or still under 1%. 

So Cincy was wrong, but right :57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2020, 07:06:09 PM
Oops.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 29, 2020, 09:35:38 PM
So much science and math promoted by non-scientists and non-mathematicians.  Fun.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 30, 2020, 06:23:47 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 29, 2020, 09:35:38 PM
So much science and math promoted by non-scientists and non-mathematicians.  Fun.
It's a discussion board, and if you see an error or factual mistake, it helps to correct it specifically, rather than just quibbling about some generality, or the backgrounds of our posters, some of which are fairly esteemed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 30, 2020, 06:55:44 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 29, 2020, 04:18:58 PM
My 27-year-old daughter just phoned me to let me know that she has tested positive. 

She is healthy and has almost no symptoms besides a small sniffle and occasional cough.

She is a PICU nurse who is not working now but attending anesthesiology program which is now a doctorate program.  Her life consists of being in class and then being in clinicals and labs at the hospital. She has virtually not left the house otherwise.

She has no idea where she got it as she is not attending any events and is a very strict user of a mask, And is often in an N 95 mask as is required at her hospital. 

I was shocked to learn that the hospital that she is currently at on rotation for her degree is not testing people for Covid!  They are treating patients and people are doing elective surgeries and they have made a decision to not test patients.  I was simply blown away by this.

And this is in the state of Michigan. My daughter informed me that most hospitals that she is aware of are definitely testing but the one she’s working at right now is not.

That scares the shit out of me – – when the scientists are not following the obvious science.
Unreal. Best wishes to your daughter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 30, 2020, 07:02:19 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 29, 2020, 09:35:38 PM
So much science and math promoted by non-scientists and non-mathematicians.  Fun.
Engineers are scientists.


I'm an engineer.


BWar is an engineer.


GopherRock is an engineer.


UTee is an engineer.


Dr. CDawg is a chemist.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 30, 2020, 07:15:06 AM
To be sure, none of us are experts in epidemiology and virology of course, but with discussion and surfacing articles, we can at least discuss fairly intelligently what is happening with this pandemic.  It's useful (even if I occasionally make a rather poor mathematical error).

If we post a thought (or hypothesis), if there is a flaw in our thinking, others can point it out, and perhaps refine the thought, or dismiss it all together.

If someone doesn't like this process, they are of course free to ignore it and contribute nothing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 30, 2020, 07:16:05 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 30, 2020, 06:23:47 AM
It's a discussion board, and if you see an error or factual mistake, it helps to correct it specifically, rather than just quibbling about some generality, or the backgrounds of our posters, some of which are fairly esteemed.

Yeah, OK. That's a lot to ask.

Now, go to your basement.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on October 30, 2020, 07:35:32 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 30, 2020, 07:02:19 AM
Engineers are scientists.


I'm an engineer.


BWar is an engineer.


GopherRock is an engineer.


UTee is an engineer.


Dr. CDawg is a chemist.
Hey I've got a degree in zoology so I knew a little bit about science like 20 years ago
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 30, 2020, 08:06:50 AM
Yeah, but you're a lawyer now.



Arguing with an engineer is like mud wrestling with a pig. 

Then, after a couple of hours, you realize the pig likes it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 30, 2020, 08:34:38 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 30, 2020, 08:06:50 AM
Yeah, but you're a lawyer now.



Arguing with an engineer is like mud wrestling with a pig.

Then, after a couple of hours, you realize the pig likes it.
😂😂😂😂😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 30, 2020, 08:39:42 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 30, 2020, 07:15:06 AM
To be sure, none of us are experts in epidemiology and virology of course, but with discussion and surfacing articles, we can at least discuss fairly intelligently what is happening with this pandemic.  It's useful (even if I occasionally make a rather poor mathematical error).

If we post a thought (or hypothesis), if there is a flaw in our thinking, others can point it out, and perhaps refine the thought, or dismiss it all together.

If someone doesn't like this process, they are of course free to ignore it and contribute nothing.
they are also free to post things that not not helpful in the least
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 30, 2020, 08:59:05 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 29, 2020, 04:18:58 PM
And this is in the state of Michigan. My daughter informed me that most hospitals that she is aware of are definitely testing but the one she’s working at right now is not.

That scares the shit out of me – – when the scientists are not following the obvious science.
Good Luck HB hope your kid weathers things fine.My brother lives up on Catawba Pennisula .Some Hospitals up in NW Ohio had a big spike back in September.According to what he's read there were a alot of Michigan residents filling those hospitals.But maybe her place has more information
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Temp430 on October 30, 2020, 09:03:31 AM
I saw a news story in the last few days were the AMA was quoted that the China virus RNA seems to indicate that it was most likely a product of a "gain-of-function" study.  In other words, the virus was engineered and most likely escaped the poorly run Chinese lab in Wuhan.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 30, 2020, 09:05:49 AM
Quote from: Temp430 on October 30, 2020, 09:03:31 AM
I saw a news story in the last few days were the AMA was quoted that the China virus RNA seems to indicate that it was most likely a product of a "gain-of-function" study.  In other words, the virus was engineered and most likely escaped the poorly run Chinese lab in Wuhan.
Can you please try and find a link to that story? I've seen some similar stuff, but nothing peer reviewed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Temp430 on October 30, 2020, 09:10:05 AM
I think I saw it on one of the Fox News shows.  I took note because it wasn't from the Hong Kong virologist that defected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 30, 2020, 09:34:22 AM
Fox News?

they hate China
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 30, 2020, 09:52:20 AM
#MeToo
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Temp430 on October 30, 2020, 10:03:09 AM
I could not find much released in the last month related to SARS-CoV-2 that was not from Li-Meng Yan, the Honk Kong virologist who claims the virus was made and not natural.  Certainly nothing in a per reviewed journal, such publications typically take years to happen.  This is all I found from a non-Yan source:


https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/13/why-i-think-the-wuhan-virus-was-likely-man-made-but-escaped-by-accident/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 30, 2020, 10:27:40 AM
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/germany-announces-four-week-shutdown-coronavirus-cases-spike-n1245121

The French shut down is slated for three months,  I don't see how they can last that long.  France is a near total shut down except essential services AND schools, and you need a permission slip to go almost anywhere.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 30, 2020, 11:17:47 AM
Peer review back in the day was more of a 3-4-5 month process.

I suspect it's even faster today, and you can publish "communications" which are not peer reviewed.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 30, 2020, 11:39:41 AM
Three months, yikes.  Obviously trying to get all the way through the Christmas Holidays and prevent intermingling during that time.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 30, 2020, 11:47:44 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 30, 2020, 06:23:47 AM
It's a discussion board, and if you see an error or factual mistake, it helps to correct it specifically, rather than just quibbling about some generality, or the backgrounds of our posters, some of which are fairly esteemed.
How does one become esteemed,I like that,does working on Steam Boilers count? 😎
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 30, 2020, 11:49:22 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on October 30, 2020, 07:35:32 AM
Hey I've got a degree in zoology so I knew a little bit about science like 20 years ago
That should work just fine here
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 30, 2020, 11:56:00 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 30, 2020, 09:34:22 AM
Fox News?

they hate China
Hopefully just the CCP,not the Chinese per se.Chinese I've met have been great except for one lady at a take out



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 30, 2020, 11:59:57 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on October 30, 2020, 11:47:44 AM
How does one become esteemed,I like that,does working on Steam Boilers count? 😎
You can also clean carpet ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on October 30, 2020, 12:29:42 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on October 30, 2020, 11:47:44 AM
How does one become esteemed,I like that,does working on Steam Boilers count? 😎
Use the double boiler to melt some chocolate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 30, 2020, 12:57:46 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on October 30, 2020, 11:56:00 AM
Hopefully just the CCP,not the Chinese per se.Chinese I've met have been great except for one lady at a take out




I work with a lot of Chinese, we have offices there (as all must, if you want to sell your products there).  They are invariably great people.

I sometimes wonder if they're embarrassed/ashamed at how awful their government is, but then there's really no way for them to get any real information outside the propaganda their government allows them to see, so how could they be?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 30, 2020, 01:10:09 PM
The wife for whatever reason loves tacos, soft shelled tacos.  Any time I make chili, she makes tacos with it.

I do the same now, never really was a fan of a taco, it seemed like a way to spill food all over the place.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on October 30, 2020, 01:21:47 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 30, 2020, 08:06:50 AM
Arguing with an engineer is like mud wrestling with a pig.

Then, after a couple of hours, you realize the pig likes it.
You think arguing with an engineer is like mud wrestling with a pig!?! Arguing with a lawyer...it's literally my job to argue. It's how I've paid my mortgage for 17 years, and it's what my graduate degree is in.

Look, the whole thing about "keeping politics out of this" is really hard when people go back to this "made in a lab in Wuhan" and refer to this as the "China Virus." 

First, don't take this crazy lib's word for it, go to Snopes:
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/li-meng-yan-covid-19-lab/

Second, as shown in that write-up--if you bother to read it--this "made in a lab in Wuhan" thing is driven by political actors (e.g. Tucker Carlson, and "The Federalist"--the definition of political actors), as is referring to COVID-19 as the "China Virus." Using that latter terminology is inherently political because it has zero basis in science. None. Even if you were to ignore everything pointed out in the Snopes write up and actually believe that this was somehow intentional, no scientific discussion refers to this virus as the "China Virus." That is political, pure and simple.

Conspiracy theories that gain traction rely on hints, whisps of information, that prey on people's beliefs. I agree: China is a bad actor on the global scale, and has an authoritarian, bad government. I also agree that China very likely did a very bad job managing this virus when the outbreak began. So if both of things are true (or more to the point, if I believe they are true), it's not a huge leap to wanting to believe that this was a devious, intentional act (because unquestionably, the Chinese government is capable of intentional, devious acts). And that's where the conspiracy theories get you. You read the opinion pieces of the people you agree with (I do, too), and they become the source of your facts. But they aren't facts; they are opinions--and political ones, at that.

I'm all for keeping politics out of things--including this thing--but let's not allow some politics, but not others. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 30, 2020, 01:23:35 PM
Ive been esteemed for a long time

Its a heavy burden but somebody has to be it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 30, 2020, 01:30:07 PM
SFB, "Snopes" is according to some on the rather far right a crazy lib site.

Even when their conclusion is on an apolitical topic, they think it has to be wrong.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 30, 2020, 01:31:10 PM
We often call it the Spanish Flu in 1918 not because it started in Spain, but because they could report on it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on October 30, 2020, 01:43:42 PM
Sure. My point is if Tucker Carlson (or Rachael Maddow) or the Federalist (or the Nation) is your source, you are making this political, not substantive.

Here is the Federalist's homepage (and ps, the writer of that self-described opinion piece "has since left scientific research."):
[img width=500 height=280.994]https://i.imgur.com/pyi8V6p.jpg[/img]

So lets either keep politics out of this, or go for it, but let's not try half of one, and half of the other.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on October 30, 2020, 01:44:52 PM
No one has any trouble reporting on COVID-19, or COVID or the coronavirus.

Let's not pretend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 30, 2020, 01:59:10 PM
The fact is that China quickly closed down travel within china but allowed the airlines to continue operating and they were as quiet as a little church mouse

so who the hell cares if the virus was created or natural

if you find a gun you dont load it and give it to a 5 year old

China knew what thay had and purposely allowed the world to catch it

thoses are the facts
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on October 30, 2020, 02:04:14 PM
No, that is literally your opinion. And it's a highly politisized one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 30, 2020, 02:06:34 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on October 30, 2020, 02:04:14 PM
No, that is literally your opinion. And it's a highly politisized one.
do you have a different opinion if so Id love to hear it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on October 30, 2020, 02:22:27 PM
The consensus (not-politicized) view is that China handled the outbreak very badly.

I've seen no support outside of the right wing news factory for the opinion that China "purposely allowed the world to catch it."

My further opinion is that people using the phrase "China Virus" or any derivative of that are engaging in the politics surrounding COVID-19. There is no scientific basis for the use of that phrase.

One of the things that makes non-political discussion of this very difficult is that the response to COVID-19 in the United States is and has been highly politicized. It is very difficult to discuss what has been done or what is being done without directly referring to politics. 

My objection above--and still--is that "politics" is off limits, but people continue spewing inherently political rhetoric in this thread. We're either going to make this apolitical or not, but going half way doesn't cut it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on October 30, 2020, 02:26:34 PM
Following up on your point, we have the virus now, so what the hell does it matter to stopping/protecting ourselves from the virus if "China allowed the world to catch it?" 

Is that an issue of international relations that deserves attention? Of course it is.

Does that help us respond to the current outbreak in the U.S.? No it does not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 30, 2020, 02:27:02 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on October 30, 2020, 02:22:27 PM
The consensus (not-politicized) view is that China handled the outbreak very badly.

I've seen no support outside of the right wing news factory for the opinion that China "purposely allowed the world to catch it."

My further opinion is that people using the phrase "China Virus" or any derivative of that are engaging in the politics surrounding COVID-19. There is no scientific basis for the use of that phrase.

One of the things that makes non-political discussion of this very difficult is that the response to COVID-19 in the United States is and has been highly politicized. It is very difficult to discuss what has been done or what is being done without directly referring to politics.

My objection above--and still--is that "politics" is off limits, but people continue spewing inherently political rhetoric in this thread. We're either going to make this apolitical or not, but going half way doesn't cut it.
well Im not going to engage in argument over this but I will say that youre opinion is not widely held even in liberal circles 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 30, 2020, 02:28:24 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on October 30, 2020, 02:26:34 PM
Following up on your point, we have the virus now, so what the hell does it matter to stopping/protecting ourselves from the virus if "China allowed the world to catch it?"

Is that an issue of international relations that deserves attention? Of course it is.

Does that help us respond to the current outbreak in the U.S.? No it does not.
youre right and I can only assume China's time is coming to answer for this
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on October 30, 2020, 02:38:21 PM
You do realize that the difference between your opinion and mine is the word "purposely?"

There is no doubt that the Chinese government handled the outbreak very badly and suppressed information about it, which almost certainly made the outbreak much, much worse, up to and including the global nature of the pandemic. 

While that's true, and needs to be addressed, it has nothing to do with this group peddling in conspiracy theories about labs in Wuhan or calling COVID-19 the "China Virus," both of which are loaded political rhetoric.

So if we're going to avoid politics in this thread, we should avoid those things.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 30, 2020, 02:42:22 PM
Eh, Ebola is the river in Africa where the virus originated.  The Hong Kong Flu originated in, yeah, you guessed it.

The use by some might be politically loaded, but it's not like there isn't historical precedent.

Edit: I'll add that I don't personally call it that, because I don't consider it to be precise enough.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 30, 2020, 02:47:47 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 30, 2020, 12:57:46 PM
I work with a lot of Chinese, we have offices there (as all must, if you want to sell your products there).  They are invariably great people.

I sometimes wonder if they're embarrassed/ashamed at how awful their government is, but then there's really no way for them to get any real information outside the propaganda their government allows them to see, so how could they be?

I think most citizens of whatever country are mostly embarrassed/ashamed of their government.  I know I am.

I'm certainly not proud of Russia's, China's, or North Korea's government.  The same as France, Great Britain, or Italy.

I suppose some are "better" than others, but they all have faults
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 30, 2020, 03:00:22 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on October 30, 2020, 02:38:21 PM
You do realize that the difference between your opinion and mine is the word "purposely?"

There is no doubt that the Chinese government handled the outbreak very badly and suppressed information about it, which almost certainly made the outbreak much, much worse, up to and including the global nature of the pandemic.

While that's true, and needs to be addressed, it has nothing to do with this group peddling in conspiracy theories about labs in Wuhan or calling COVID-19 the "China Virus," both of which are loaded political rhetoric.

So if we're going to avoid politics in this thread, we should avoid those things.
Yes as exact as the Chinese are on other aspects of their country its very hard to believe this was not done on purpose
again they immediately closed down travel to other parts of China but did not stop foreign visitors from coming and going

on one hand they made efforts to confine the virus to its origin but on the other hand allowed the airlines to take thousand of Chinese to all parts of the globe

if that was stupidity then I can only say they dont have a track record for that kind of blunder

you keep bringing up politics and I dont connect this to a political discussion

Im not sure how Rep vs Dem enter into this
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 30, 2020, 03:01:47 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 30, 2020, 02:47:47 PM
I think most citizens of whatever country are mostly embarrassed/ashamed of their government.  I know I am.

I'm certainly not proud of Russia's, China's, or North Korea's government.  The same as France, Great Britain, or Italy.

I suppose some are "better" than others, but they all have faults
Eh, I'm not ashamed of our government.  I'm ashamed of some of the things our government has been responsible for, while recognizing it's also done a shit-ton of good in the world over the past 150 years or so.

CCP just isn't anywhere close to the US government, for any number of reasons.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 30, 2020, 03:04:19 PM
I prefer China Virus to COVID-19  ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 30, 2020, 03:06:38 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 30, 2020, 03:04:19 PM
I prefer China Virus to COVID-19  ;)
even if the Chinese were totally without fault in this Id call it the Chinese Virus cause thats where it originated

If it came from my son's house Id call it the son of Longhorn320 virus
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 30, 2020, 03:17:32 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 30, 2020, 03:01:47 PM
Eh, I'm not ashamed of our government.  I'm ashamed of some of the things our government has been responsible for, while recognizing it's also done a shit-ton of good in the world over the past 150 years or so.

CCP just isn't anywhere close to the US government, for any number of reasons.
I'm ashamed of the way our two parties go about blaming each other for everything, making all issues a political problem, especially a serious deadly virus.
I'm embarrassed that our two parties would rather divide the nation than work towards a common good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on October 30, 2020, 03:19:40 PM
I'll continue to call bullspit on this.

Sure, we talk about Ebola--tell me when this became a politicized term?

What about SARS 2, or the Swine Flu, or Avian Flu, or H1N1, etc., etc., etc.?

Everyone here knows that Trump started the "China Virus" bullspit after COVID-19 and coronavirus were firmly entrenched as the way this was referred to. It's political BS. As the SNL version of Bob Dole once said, you know it, I know it, and the American people know it.

Spare me--and everyone else here--the crap.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 30, 2020, 03:24:05 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on October 30, 2020, 03:19:40 PM
I'll continue to call bullspit on this.

Sure, we talk about Ebola--tell me when this became a politicized term?

What about SARS 2, or the Swine Flu, or Avian Flu, or H1N1, etc., etc., etc.?

Everyone here knows that Trump started the "China Virus" bullspit after COVID-19 and coronavirus were firmly entrenched as the way this was referred to. It's political BS. As the SNL version of Bob Dole once said, you know it, I know it, and the American people know it.

Spare me--and everyone else here--the crap.
youre very sensitive on this

are you of Chinese descent

No problem if you are it would just help me understand why this issue is so sensitive to you
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 30, 2020, 03:31:04 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on October 30, 2020, 03:19:40 PM
I'll continue to call bullspit on this.

Sure, we talk about Ebola--tell me when this became a politicized term?

What about SARS 2, or the Swine Flu, or Avian Flu, or H1N1, etc., etc., etc.?

Everyone here knows that Trump started the "China Virus" bullspit after COVID-19 and coronavirus were firmly entrenched as the way this was referred to. It's political BS. As the SNL version of Bob Dole once said, you know it, I know it, and the American people know it.

Spare me--and everyone else here--the crap.

It's politicized and bothersome to you because you've chosen to allow it to be.

I don't give a rat's ass what our current president calls it, nor do I care what our former president might call it, were he to call it anything, nor would I care what our next president might call it.

You have a problem with a person, and you allow it to politicize the term for you.  That's your choice.

I don't like our current president, and I certainly didn't vote for him (either then nor now), but I also don't care what he says about it, or really anything else.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 30, 2020, 03:32:11 PM
SF coming out swinging!! Even taking on engineers who likes to mud wrestle.


January 14. And it's bullspit.


https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152


They knew what they had.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 30, 2020, 03:34:21 PM
And of course now we're discussing politics once again, that have nothing to do with the current global pandemic that's a result of the Wuhan Flu.

:)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 30, 2020, 03:36:53 PM
bunch of misfits
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 30, 2020, 03:43:43 PM
I agree that calling it the China virus had political motivation, and still does for some, but really, I don't care what you call it.

I'm not offended if you call it the CV nor do I take it as political.  I use the term COVID of course.

I'm more interested in trying to understand what's happening and about to happen.  That dip in Aug/Sept has me perplexed, though if the new surge is a new variant ...

France is committing what to me looks to be economic suicide to try and curtail this.  And I fear the attempt is too little/ too late/too much/not enough/and not ideal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 30, 2020, 03:49:45 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 30, 2020, 03:34:21 PM
And of course now we're discussing politics once again, that have nothing to do with the current global pandemic that's a result of the Wuhan Flu.

:)

It'd be great if politics had nothing to do with it, but it does.  A lot.  THAT is the problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 30, 2020, 03:52:48 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 30, 2020, 03:49:45 PM
It'd be great if politics had nothing to do with it, but it does.  A lot.  THAT is the problem.
Oh God hes lose

quick somebody call the authorities

he's terrorizing the village
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 30, 2020, 03:53:53 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 30, 2020, 03:49:45 PM
It'd be great if politics had nothing to do with it, but it does.  A lot.  THAT is the problem.
And you can feel free to discuss whatever political bits you like, somewhere else.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 30, 2020, 03:56:48 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 30, 2020, 03:43:43 PM
I agree that calling it the China virus had political motivation, and still does for some, but really, I don't care what you call it.

I'm not offended if you call it the CV nor do I take it as political.  I use the term COVID of course.

I'm more interested in trying to understand what's happening and about to happen.  That dip in Aug/Sept has me perplexed, though if the new surge is a new variant ...

France is committing what to me looks to be economic suicide to try and curtail this.  And I fear the attempt is too little/ too late/too much/not enough/and not ideal.
Well look at who is running the country

I just hope the "we must shut downers" are paying attention
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 30, 2020, 04:01:54 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 30, 2020, 03:43:43 PM
I'm more interested in trying to understand what's happening and about to happen.  That dip in Aug/Sept has me perplexed, though if the new surge is a new variant ...

France is committing what to me looks to be economic suicide to try and curtail this.  And I fear the attempt is too little/ too late/too much/not enough/and not ideal.

No dip here, just a pretty steady downward trend.  So there's nothing really to understand, not singularly-- it's quite regional.  Trying to approach the US monolithically would be fruitless.

As far as France, the real problem for them, is that the novel coronavirus is still going to be around when they come out of this in 3 months.  It's not going away.  So they're going to do extreme damage to their country, and at most they just delay the next wave by those 3 months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 30, 2020, 04:08:34 PM
Why is it regional in the US?  Georgia is starting to edge up some, but it's not terrible (yet) and not as bad as in June/July.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 30, 2020, 04:12:33 PM
the upper midwest started to edge up quite a bit, a couple months ago
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 30, 2020, 04:15:59 PM
is there any connection to football and schools openings
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on October 30, 2020, 04:18:52 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 30, 2020, 03:53:53 PM
And you can feel free to discuss whatever political bits you like, somewhere else. 


So this is getting to my very point. We're either going to allow politics here, or we're not.

If we aren't, then we should be excising things that plainly have strong political overtones.

Badge, no one is disagreeing that the Chinese government engaged in a cover up that almost certainly made this pandemic far, far worse.

But engaging in talk about the Wuhan lab stuff, and referring to it by its politically charged name are plainly political.

320, to answer your question, no, I'm not Chinese-American, but many of my friends and neighbors have Asian heritage. Why does this matter?

Because words matter. And we know that using terms like "China Flu" are grist for the racist mill. That does NOT (using all caps, bolding, underlining, and italics to make sure that you read that--if you're confused, read it again) mean you're racist if you use them, but their use results in more racism. Anti-Asian racism is way up in this country, and using terms like "China Flu" exacerbates that. Isn't that reason enough not to use it?

So even here in pretty blue northern California, there has been a significant increase in the number of anti-Asian racist acts, and my friends and neighbors absolutely have been impacted by that.

So, yes, I do care what you call it because it does matter.

And to Utee's point, if we're going to discuss opinion pieces by heavily politically slanted sources, then lets not pretend that this is a politics free zone.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 30, 2020, 04:37:32 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on October 30, 2020, 04:18:52 PM


320, to answer your question, no, I'm not Chinese-American, but many of my friends and neighbors have Asian heritage. Why does this matter?

I dont give 2 hoots in hell what your linage is Im just trying to understand your bent

as far as China is concerned I feel like Americans must have felt after Pearl Harbor

I consider what China did as an attack on the US and the world

I really dont care if it offends China to call it the China virus

If China doesnt want to be referred to as the host country for the virus thay should have not taken the actions they did

Ive got a lot of friends of Chinese descent and even most of them refer to it as the Chinese virus

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 30, 2020, 04:39:36 PM
What one considers political another may not.

I wonder if some would think calling it COVID is political.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 30, 2020, 04:54:08 PM
A surge in coronavirus cases has led officials in one western Iowa county to require people to wear faces masks in public.

The Harrison County Board on Thursday approved the mask mandate in a 2-1 vote, according to television station KETV.

Supervisor John Straight, who voted for the mandate, said he hopes requiring masks will help reduce virus numbers in the county, where the positivity rate of the virus has topped 20% for three straight weeks.

“It’s really a hot issue, and it is hard,” Straight said. "It was hard on us today.”


Supervisor Walter Utman also voted for the mandate, while Tony Smith voted no. All three supervisors are Republicans in a county that heavily leans toward the GOP, with state data showing active registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by a more than 2-to-1 ratio.

Outbreaks in elder care facilities have been driving the county's numbers up, said Brad Brake, the county's health administrator. Brake said 266 of the county’s more than 700 confirmed cases come from nursing homes, and 16 COVID-19 deaths had been recorded in the county as of Friday.


State data also indicated 31 counties have a positivity rate above 15% and all 99 of the state’s counties are now above 5%, a level at which many health professionals recommend face masks, social distancing and limits on crowd sizes.

The Harrison County mandate is expected to go into effect by Nov. 9 and be revisited after 30 days. The goal is to reach a positivity rate below 10% for 14 straight days, Brake said.

“Once that threshold is hit, then it will no longer be in effect for that next 30-day period,” he said
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 30, 2020, 04:56:57 PM
Republicans in a rural county of 15,000 issuing a mask mandate.

Some don't see only a political issue
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 30, 2020, 05:00:16 PM
I just don't understand why masks are a big deal. 

There's a degree to which I understand the hatred of a mandate--I'm a libertarian and I hate being told what to do. But I wear a mask because it seems like it's one of the better ways that we as a society can try to reduce R0. 

Can someone, anyone, explain this to me? Why are some people SO anti-mask? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 30, 2020, 05:17:48 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 30, 2020, 05:00:16 PM
I just don't understand why masks are a big deal.

There's a degree to which I understand the hatred of a mandate--I'm a libertarian and I hate being told what to do. But I wear a mask because it seems like it's one of the better ways that we as a society can try to reduce R0.

Can someone, anyone, explain this to me? Why are some people SO anti-mask?
No idea.   Don’t know , nor have I ever met anyone who is anti mask.  Makes no sense 

Now that we’re down this path quite away I do know quite a few people who have contacted Covid and every single one of them is somebody I would label is very strict mask people who surround themselves with other very strict mask people
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 30, 2020, 05:33:47 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 30, 2020, 05:00:16 PM

Can someone, anyone, explain this to me? Why are some people SO anti-mask?
just to be belligerent 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 30, 2020, 05:56:36 PM
I've been chastised for not wearing a mask in an open public space where there was zero chance of someone coming within 20 feet of me unless they deliberately tried.

And, they deliberately tried, in order to chastise me.

I just brushed it off, I wasn't breaking any laws or mandates, nor was I doing anything that is dangerous from a public health perspective.

But if some people that are less forgiving than I am, were approached in the same way, I could certainly see some anti-mask sentiment arising from that interaction.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 30, 2020, 06:03:47 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 30, 2020, 05:00:16 PM

Can someone, anyone, explain this to me? Why are some people SO anti-mask?
I've been asked to cover my face for years
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 30, 2020, 06:05:42 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 30, 2020, 05:56:36 PM
I've been chastised for not wearing a mask in an open public space where there was zero chance of someone coming within 20 feet of me unless they deliberately tried.

And, they deliberately tried, in order to chastise me.
So you met OAM or an Aggie?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 30, 2020, 06:09:41 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on October 30, 2020, 06:05:42 PM
So you met OAM or an Aggie?
😂😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 30, 2020, 06:14:27 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on October 30, 2020, 06:05:42 PM
So you met OAM or an Aggie?

Uhhhh, ags are the least likely to chastise someone for not wearing masks.  They tend to be very much on the "my rights" side of the argument.  My inlaws that caught COVID are aggies, for what that's worth...

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 30, 2020, 06:17:04 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 30, 2020, 06:14:27 PM
Uhhhh, ags are the least likely to chastise someone for not wearing masks.  They tend to be very much on the "my rights" side of the argument.  My inlaws that caught COVID are aggies, for what that's worth...
I guess that narrows it down
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 30, 2020, 06:22:57 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on October 30, 2020, 06:17:04 PM
I guess that narrows it down
Indeed it does.  It was either OAM, or some other Austin hipster! ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 30, 2020, 07:02:23 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 30, 2020, 03:53:53 PM
And you can feel free to discuss whatever political bits you like, somewhere else. 


You guys REALLY need your echo chamber, don't you?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 30, 2020, 07:19:50 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 30, 2020, 07:02:23 PM
You guys REALLY need your echo chamber, don't you?
and yet here you are
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 30, 2020, 07:30:05 PM
Bonus side effect of the mask culture, catching less smell in poorly cleaned public restrooms. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 30, 2020, 07:50:57 PM
I'm much more worried about poorly cleaned public restrooms than the virus

the motion sensor is the greatest invention - no need to touch anything in a public restroom
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 30, 2020, 08:21:28 PM
Seeing too many residents going to school extracurricular and social life events such as weddings without taking precautions, the chief Woodbury County public health official has chastised residents for becoming lax in the fight to stop the spread of the novel coronavirus.

The prime culprits are adults from age 18 to 40, Siouxland District Health Department Director Kevin Grieme said. He said 61 percent of county positive cases are from people in that young adult to nearly middle age range, so they are prime contributors to the "dramatic" rise in virus numbers.

"It is that age range that are really out and about, that is socializing, with the highest impact," Grieme said, when speaking Monday in a Sioux City School Board meeting, at the beginning of a week in which the number of positive virus cases rose above 7,400.


Some people worried that the resumption of school in August would raise the number of cases, even as officials undertook huge cleaning activities and some districts required masks. But only 10 percent of coronavirus cases in Woodbury County come from the school age range up through age 17, Grieme said.

In an Oct. 10 weekly COVID-19 status report, the Siouxland District Health Department wrote sternly that people who have been exposed to the virus, and those who have tested positive, should not be going out and about.

"IT IS STILL EXPECTED THAT AN INDIVIDUAL THAT HAS BEEN TESTED IS TO QUARANTINE UNTIL THEY RECEIVE THE RESULTS OF THEIR TESTS," Siouxland District Health wrote in all-caps.

"Until we have compliance with isolation and quarantine expectations, we will continue to see new cases on a daily basis," the report added.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 30, 2020, 08:56:16 PM
The real problem are the duffers swilling schooners of suds
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 30, 2020, 09:19:31 PM
I'll be swilling tomorrow morning after a Pancake Breakfast at the small town Fire Station, then off to the golf course

school age range up through age 40 = 71%

the duffers are only 29%
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 30, 2020, 10:10:37 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 30, 2020, 07:02:23 PM
You guys REALLY need your echo chamber, don't you?

Nope.

But apparently you do.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 31, 2020, 01:29:41 AM
That is utterly nonsensical.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 31, 2020, 08:52:28 AM
The WHO, CNN, MSNBC, etc. were referring to the virus as the "Chinese Virus" up until China told them not to. 

Then is was racist. Just sayin'.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 31, 2020, 09:49:10 AM
I don't see how France can maintain this level of shut down for more than a month tops.  They WILL protest, and often, and that spreads the thing obviously.  Yellow vests, green, blue, red, whatever.

Germany took more measured steps, though one might opine they won't do much.

Sweden is worse than they were months ago, new records there also, nearly 3400 new cases Oct. 28.

The state of Georgia is ticking up but running about 1,500 new cases per day now about the same pop. as Sweden.  France is running close to 50,000 new reported cases per day.  That is about five times more per capita than the US.

I lean to thinking it's a new variant/mutation/strain that is more communicable.  Hopefully it is less virulent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 31, 2020, 09:58:47 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 31, 2020, 09:49:10 AM
I don't see how France can maintain this level of shut down for more than a month tops.  They WILL protest, and often, and that spreads the thing obviously.  Yellow vests, green, blue, red, whatever.

Germany took more measured steps, though one might opine they won't do much.

Sweden is worse than they were months ago, new records there also, nearly 3400 new cases Oct. 28.

The state of Georgia is ticking up but running about 1,500 new cases per day now about the same pop. as Sweden.  France is running close to 50,000 new reported cases per day.  That is about five times more per capita than the US.

I lean to thinking it's a new variant/mutation/strain that is more communicable.  Hopefully it is less virulent.
If thats the case you would think doctors would find out about it but so far not a word
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 31, 2020, 10:00:13 AM
82K tests in FL Thursday, 4.2K positive. Hospitalizations down. Median age for positive is 40. That keeps going down. 

Trends are positive here.

Testing is WAY up here. 0.5 Million last week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 31, 2020, 10:09:41 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 31, 2020, 09:58:47 AM
If thats the case you would think doctors would find out about it but so far not a word
I posted on this thread a report about a Spanish variant that MAY be causing this new outbreak.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 31, 2020, 10:48:08 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 31, 2020, 10:09:41 AM
I posted on this thread a report about a Spanish variant that MAY be causing this new outbreak.
OK I stand corrected

Still no word if this has reached the US or what particular features this variant has
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 31, 2020, 10:51:45 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 31, 2020, 10:09:41 AM
I posted on this thread a report about a Spanish variant that MAY be causing this new outbreak.
Ah the long dormant Spanish Flu tag teaming with the Chinese Flu
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 31, 2020, 11:03:39 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/jP5QzpU.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 31, 2020, 11:58:17 AM
https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-spain-variant/scientists-identify-prolific-coronavirus-strain-which-started-in-spain-and-spread-across-europe-idUSKBN27E2RS


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1


Abstract
A variant of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in early summer 2020, presumably in Spain, and has since spread to multiple European countries. The variant was first observed in Spain in June and has been at frequencies above 40% since July. Outside of Spain, the frequency of this variant has increased from very low values prior to 15th July to 40-70% in Switzerland, Ireland, and the United Kingdom in September. It is also prevalent in Norway, Latvia, the Netherlands, and France. Little can be said about other European countries because few recent sequences are available. Sequences in this cluster (20A.EU1) differ from ancestral sequences at 6 or more positions, including the mutation A222V in the spike protein and A220V in the nucleoprotein. We show that this variant was exported from Spain to other European countries multiple times and that much of the diversity of this cluster in Spain is observed across Europe. It is currently unclear whether this variant is spreading because of a transmission advantage of the virus or whether high incidence in Spain followed by dissemination through tourists is sufficient to explain the rapid rise in multiple countries.
CAVEATS



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 31, 2020, 12:06:05 PM
I guess all we can do is keep an eye on hospitalizations and deaths to know if this is worse, or better. Right?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 31, 2020, 12:08:51 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 31, 2020, 12:06:05 PM
I guess all we can do is keep an eye on hospitalizations and deaths to know if this is worse, or better. Right?
Yep. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 31, 2020, 01:04:25 PM
Same as always.  Absolute cases or case positivity rates just don't tell us much.  Hospitalizations and ICU are the best ways to measure impact to a community.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 31, 2020, 01:09:09 PM
A big move in cases reported is illustrative, see France.  Something happened there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 31, 2020, 01:10:25 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 31, 2020, 01:09:09 PM
A big move in cases reported is illustrative, see France.  Something happened there.
A huge move, sure.

But even there, hospitalizations and ICU numbers are far more important to track.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 31, 2020, 01:29:02 PM
I agree, though obviously a dramatic move in reported infections can augur an increase in hosp/deaths in a week or two.  So, it's useful information.

France apparently has seen roughly parallel increases in hospitalizations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 31, 2020, 01:29:38 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 31, 2020, 01:29:41 AM
That is utterly nonsensical. 
Do you want to post something more positive and constructive on this thread?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 31, 2020, 05:04:03 PM
I'm not going to hold my breath. I still want to know his thoughts on what we should be doing NOW.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 31, 2020, 05:27:06 PM
Georgia had a bad jump today, over 2,500 reported new cases.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on October 31, 2020, 07:46:25 PM
Took my son trick or treating.  Number of trick or treaters was down a little but not a lot. The number of people handing out candy was down.

A couple of people tied PVC pipe to their stair banisters and slid the candy down. My wife and I actually talked about doing that but never got around to it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 01, 2020, 06:42:13 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 31, 2020, 05:27:06 PM
Georgia had a bad jump today, over 2,500 reported new cases.


How many tests?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2020, 07:24:18 AM
Almost 27,000 tests yesterday.  Testing numbers are trending up some.

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2020, 07:43:50 AM


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 01, 2020, 07:53:42 AM
The US is also testing far more people every day.

Florida case counts are high. Lots and lots of tests.

But, the key metrics are down. We are going to beat this thing, now that we know what it is and how we can take care of the vulnerable.

We need to keep an eye on Europe, obviously.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 01, 2020, 08:03:36 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 31, 2020, 05:04:03 PM
I'm not going to hold my breath. I still want to know his thoughts on what we should be doing NOW.
He has not,just like to critisize/snipe others POV with brusque bombast to appear as one in the know.One shouldn't have hope either as that is nonsensical
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2020, 08:12:25 AM
We might start getting vaccinations next month for key people.  Maybe, by the end of February, that starts to limit the rate of spread, I hope, or earlier.

I figure we will eventually need proof of vaccination to get on a plane or ship etc.

This is going to light up the folks who view this as a hoax perpetrated by the government and Bill Gates to get us all microchipped.  They exist.

They are loud but not numerous, I think.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 01, 2020, 08:26:02 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 01, 2020, 08:12:25 AM
This is going to light up the folks who view this as a hoax perpetrated by the government and Bill Gates to get us all microchipped.  They exist.

Of course Bill Gates and the government exist but what about the hoax?Cindy listens to that growling guy from Austin(not utee)who goes to great lengths to present evidence to the contrary
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2020, 08:32:03 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 01, 2020, 08:26:02 AM
Of course Bill Gates and the government exist but what about the hoax?Cindy listens to that growling guy from Austin(not utee)who goes to great lengths to present evidence to the contrary

One hoax I've heard is that there will be a microchip in the vaccine that will cause us to turn in our guns en masse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on November 01, 2020, 08:39:08 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 01, 2020, 07:53:42 AM
The US is also testing far more people every day.

Florida case counts are high. Lots and lots of tests.

But, the key metrics are down. We are going to beat this thing, now that we know what it is and how we can take care of the vulnerable.

We need to keep an eye on Europe, obviously.
Not to rain too much on that, but positive rate is up from 4.1 percent to 6.5. Hopefully that settles soon. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2020, 08:40:38 AM
I think it will go higher, and quickly.  Hope I'm wrong.

I also HOPE hospitalizations/serious cases go up much less fast than last time.  I think it is possible.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on November 01, 2020, 08:40:50 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 01, 2020, 08:32:03 AM
One hoax I've heard is that there will be a microchip in the vaccine that will cause us to turn in our guns en masse.

So this isn't the right time to buy? Just wait till after I'm vaccinated? Sounds like a double-hoax to keep me from arming. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 01, 2020, 08:53:32 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on November 01, 2020, 08:40:50 AM
So this isn't the right time to buy? Just wait till after I'm vaccinated? Sounds like a double-hoax to keep me from arming.
well many of us have already bought so no problem
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2020, 09:25:56 AM
Yeah, but if you get vaccinated, you will woodenly turn in your weapons voluntarily to the government, because ....

So, buying now is worse than standing pat or selling whatever you have now for money (which "they" will also come for).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 01, 2020, 09:34:00 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 01, 2020, 08:26:02 AM
Of course Bill Gates and the government exist but what about the hoax?Cindy listens to that growling guy from Austin(not utee)who goes to great lengths to present evidence to the contrary
Oh geez Alex Jones?  Please tell Cindy that everything he says is 100% wrong. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 01, 2020, 09:34:10 AM
well theres another solution to that but not going there cause this is the virus thread
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2020, 09:47:46 AM
https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a34361957/kandn-air-filter-maker-face-mask/?utm_campaign=socialflowR%26T&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social-media&fbclid=IwAR0-Qu-Y16v1zfCUNbn3mGL1Et0sxxZ1qZKcPmdZhNTXv-YZdMAVqQOBvbQ


This is amusing if you are a gear head.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 01, 2020, 10:09:02 AM
as cases go up, testing goes up exponentially

contact tracing causes many more folks to get a test
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 01, 2020, 11:38:59 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 01, 2020, 09:34:00 AM
Oh geez Alex Jones?  Please tell Cindy that everything he says is 100% wrong.
I tried that,not sure about the 100% but I suspect not far off
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2020, 11:50:18 AM
The best deceptions are based on a modicum of truth.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 01, 2020, 12:49:08 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 01, 2020, 11:50:18 AM
The best deceptions are based on a modicum of truth.
I thought that was humor
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 01, 2020, 12:57:58 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 01, 2020, 11:38:59 AM
I tried that,not sure about the 100% but I suspect not far off
I'm not sure whether he actually believes anything he says.  He's won and lost a couple of fortunes based on pandering to the lunatic fringe.  

Seriously, everything he says is wrong.  And he knows it.  But he also knows how to sell his brand of BS.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 01, 2020, 01:16:51 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 01, 2020, 12:57:58 PM
I'm not sure whether he actually believes anything he says.  He's won and lost a couple of fortunes based on pandering to the lunatic fringe. 

Seriously, everything he says is wrong.  And he knows it.  But he also knows how to sell his brand of BS.
you shouldnt talk about OAM like that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 01, 2020, 02:34:17 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 01, 2020, 12:57:58 PM
I'm not sure whether he actually believes anything he says.
I think AJ actually does,he's just waiting for everyone else to pull the scales off of their eyes and recognize his brilliance
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2020, 02:40:21 PM
https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-health-paris-france-616144d062db39ec123032bed5c3d930

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1354064/Emmanuel-Macron-chaos-France-second-lockdown-Paris-protest-riot-police-latest-news-vn

So, the lockdown in France has sparked protests, people outside in masses hollering at each and spewing saliva.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 01, 2020, 03:03:37 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 01, 2020, 02:40:21 PM
https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-health-paris-france-616144d062db39ec123032bed5c3d930

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1354064/Emmanuel-Macron-chaos-France-second-lockdown-Paris-protest-riot-police-latest-news-vn

So, the lockdown in France has sparked protests, people outside in masses hollering at each and spewing saliva.


you would have thought a lesson had been learned when they raised gasoline prices last time
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2020, 03:09:51 PM
The French operate a kind of democracy that often is separated from voting and politicians.  If a pol does something they dislike, they shut the country down with strikes.  Farmers drive their equipment onto the autoroutes at 10 mph.  They are used to it, but government always seems to cave, so why they do something in the first place is a mystery to me.  Perhaps it is a complex ballet.

We were in Paris in January when they had protests and the police shut down all the bridges over the Seine, and as luck would have it, our hotel was on the other side.  Nobody understood what had happened apparently, I know I didn't, so I kept driving to the next bridge, if traffic moved at all.  I finally parked and we had an early dinner, and the restauranteur told the wife the bridges would open at 6 PM.  He had a so what attitude.

So, now, they fight the virus with a tactic guaranteed to foment protests.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 01, 2020, 03:25:26 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on November 01, 2020, 02:34:17 PM
I think AJ actually does,he's just waiting for everyone else to pull the scales off of their eyes and recognize his brilliance
Nah, I'm telling you straight up, he doesn't believe it.  I actually know the guy, we went to the same high school.  He was two years younger and we weren't close friends or anything, but we knew a lot of the same people, hung with some of the same crowd, and some folks I know, are still friends with him.

He's pretty smart, smart enough to figure out how to monetize a fringe segment of society.  He made a ton of money off his "followers" and then lost it in a messy divorce, and then made another small fortune.  He's really good at squeezing money out of people that want to believe weird things.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2020, 03:29:31 PM
I have wondered how many of the shock jocks know better, but also know how to feather their nest and appeal to that segment that buys their stuff and listens.

I imagine we've all been around good salesmen, perhaps it is the same basic technique being used.

My buddy who owned the wine shop is a superb salesman.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 01, 2020, 03:29:59 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 01, 2020, 03:09:51 PM
The French operate a kind of democracy that often is separated from voting and politicians.  If a pol does something they dislike, they shut the country down with strikes.  Farmers drive their equipment onto the autoroutes at 10 mph.  They are used to it, but government always seems to cave, so why they do something in the first place is a mystery to me.  Perhaps it is a complex ballet.

We were in Paris in January when they had protests and the police shut down all the bridges over the Seine, and as luck would have it, our hotel was on the other side.  Nobody understood what had happened apparently, I know I didn't, so I kept driving to the next bridge, if traffic moved at all.  I finally parked and we had an early dinner, and the restauranteur told the wife the bridges would open at 6 PM.  He had a so what attitude.

So, now, they fight the virus with a tactic guaranteed to foment protests.



I have an expat friend who lives in Paris, he posted up some pictures on Facebook, aerial photos of the massive traffic jams due to the mass exodus from Paris before the new lockdown kicked in on Friday.  

Here's a BBC article with some video footage.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54742795

 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54742795)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 01, 2020, 04:22:33 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 01, 2020, 03:29:31 PM
I have wondered how many of the shock jocks know better, but also know how to feather their nest and appeal to that segment that buys their stuff and listens.

I imagine we've all been around good salesmen, perhaps it is the same basic technique being used.

My buddy who owned the wine shop is a superb salesman. 
It's easy to be a good salesman when you're peddling booze, no?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2020, 04:27:43 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 01, 2020, 04:22:33 PM
It's easy to be a good salesman when you're peddling booze, no?
Not in my experience.  But your experience may be different.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2020, 04:41:40 PM
Maybe we could veer back on topic again.

Georgia had a better figure today, but it's Sunday.  

Europe is just going into a really bad situation apparently.  It's too early to see if the lockdown will help, it should I think, if the protests don't fire up more.

France is running close to 50,000 new cases per day.  That is 3x worse than the US per capita.  And we could get there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2020, 08:41:10 PM
Georgia will have a run off Senate race that could attract insane spending.

Will the US hit European COVID levels in two weeks?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 01, 2020, 09:09:15 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 01, 2020, 08:41:10 PM
Georgia will have a run off Senate race that could attract insane spending.

Will the US hit European COVID levels in two weeks?
so far the death count has not followed suit but the next 2 weeks will tell the story
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 01, 2020, 10:37:11 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 01, 2020, 08:41:10 PM

Will the US hit European COVID levels in two weeks?
Cases so no sign of slowing. 
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 01, 2020, 09:09:15 PM
so far the death count has not followed suit but the next 2 weeks will tell the story
They're going up already. Worried about the next two weeks. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 01, 2020, 11:13:36 PM
I distinctly remember a certain poster saying 100,000 new cases in a day would be impossible.  Hmmm, he's around here, somewhere.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 01, 2020, 11:34:15 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 01, 2020, 10:37:11 PM
Cases so no sign of slowing. They're going up already. Worried about the next two weeks.
the death count has increased some but no where near the increase in cases
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 02, 2020, 12:10:32 AM
Oh, there you are!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 02, 2020, 08:03:31 AM
And there you are.

What should we be doing differently, right now?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 02, 2020, 08:41:23 AM
In the last 5 weeks the weekly new case count has increased by aprox 78%

In the same time period the weekly death count has increased by aprox 11%


Hope the death count holds until we can turn the corner on new cases
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 02, 2020, 08:45:01 AM
We are showing record cases because we are showing record testing numbers. Everyone is going to get this. People have to leave their basements eventually.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Temp430 on November 02, 2020, 09:04:21 AM
Bring out the dead and be sure to wear your mask!

Dark Winter is coming.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 02, 2020, 09:15:02 AM
The death increase could lag any infection increase by 3-4 weeks.  The reported new case levels in Europe are WAY in excess of what was seen in the spring.  Deaths are going up as well but have not reached those highs or anything near them ... yet.

Panic buying reported in the UK.  Not happening here ... yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 02, 2020, 09:27:26 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 02, 2020, 09:15:02 AM
The death increase could lag any infection increase by 3-4 weeks.  The reported new case levels in Europe are WAY in excess of what was seen in the spring.  Deaths are going up as well but have not reached those highs or anything near them ... yet.

Panic buying reported in the UK.  Not happening here ... yet.
Cases have been steadily increasing across Europe since August, 8-10 weeks ago, but the corresponding increase in deaths is minimal compared to what it was last Spring, even accounting for a 3-4 week lag.

Except in the Czech Republic, which I still find perplexing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 02, 2020, 09:28:03 AM
BERLIN (AP) — Several European countries are tightening restrictions this week, starting with a partial shutdown Monday in Germany, as authorities across the continent scramble to slow a rapid rise in coronavirus infections that threatens to overwhelm their health care systems.

Britain and Austria will follow suit later in the week, closing restaurants, bars and nonessential shops. Italy, Greece and Kosovo also announced new measures. In some places, the new rules — which vary in strictness — are prompting violent protests by people frustrated at once again having to forgo freedoms.


OR?????



OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — Five of the six states with the nation’s lowest unemployment rates are in the Midwest, have Republican governors and have almost no restrictions intended to slow the spread of the coronavirus.

The governors say their decisions not to impose harsher restrictions are paying off with fewer business closures and more hiring reflected in the strong jobless numbers. But economists say it’s not so simple. Although businesses that are struggling during the pandemic can benefit when governors opt not to require masks or limit in-door gatherings, other factors may play an even bigger role in producing such low unemployment rates.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Temp430 on November 02, 2020, 09:28:31 AM
Well, I have lots of guns and ammo and live in the woods with plentiful deer and turkey.  I do have an emergency generator I could hook up to the house to run the furnace, water well, and some other stuff but only lasts as long as the gasoline...maybe a week in Dark Winter.  Not really a "prepper" but just ready for power outages from ice storms, etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 02, 2020, 09:33:19 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 02, 2020, 09:27:26 AM
Cases have been steadily increasing across Europe since August, 8-10 weeks ago, but the corresponding increase in deaths is minimal compared to what it was last Spring, even accounting for a 3-4 week lag.

Except in the Czech Republic, which I still find perplexing.
Pilsner perhaps
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 02, 2020, 09:41:07 AM
Quote from: Temp430 on November 02, 2020, 09:28:31 AM
Well, I have lots of guns and ammo and live in the woods with plentiful deer and turkey.  I do have an emergency generator I could hook up to the house to run the furnace, water well, and some other stuff but only lasts as long as the gasoline...maybe a week in Dark Winter.  Not really a "prepper" but just ready for power outages from ice storms, etc.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3cQNkIrg-Tk
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 02, 2020, 09:41:38 AM
We have discussed the probability that the new infections may be skewed to a younger median age, and treatment is probably better.

I expect the death increase to be lower.

Czechia I have no idea.

They made some very credible tanks in 1939, better or at least equal to the German tanks, better than the Panzer II that formed the largest portion of German armored divisions at the time.  The Panzer II was a light tank with only a 20 mm main weapon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 02, 2020, 09:47:44 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 02, 2020, 09:28:03 AM

OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — Five of the six states with the nation’s lowest unemployment rates are in the Midwest, have Republican governors and have almost no restrictions intended to slow the spread of the coronavirus.

The governors say their decisions not to impose harsher restrictions are paying off with fewer business closures and more hiring reflected in the strong jobless numbers. But economists say it’s not so simple. Although businesses that are struggling during the pandemic can benefit when governors opt not to require masks or limit in-door gatherings, other factors may play an even bigger role in producing such low unemployment rates.

Theres a big difference between "shutting down" and requiring masks in businesses  closing bars or inside restaurants

If I ran a state Id monitor hospitalizations and deaths closely and not shut down unless our hospitals were being over run
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 02, 2020, 09:49:13 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 02, 2020, 09:41:38 AM
We have discussed the probability that the new infections may be skewed to a younger median age, and treatment is probably better.

I expect the death increase to be lower.

Czechia I have no idea.

They made some very credible tanks in 1939, better or at least equal to the German tanks, better than the Panzer II that formed the largest portion of German armored divisions at the time.  The Panzer II was a light tank with only a 20 mm main weapon.
"Its the tanks! This virus hates the tanks!"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 02, 2020, 09:50:12 AM
States previously had prepared temporary hospitals when it appeared capacity was about to be exceeded.  Around here, those were shut down in June, but could be restarted and handle the less severe cases.  I was out today for groceries, no panic buying was apparent thought disinfectant sprays are in short supply stiff.

Georgia's numbers are not that bad, yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 02, 2020, 09:53:09 AM
I've seen no panic here. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 02, 2020, 10:04:45 AM
Houston is calm no panic buying Im aware of
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 02, 2020, 10:06:09 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 02, 2020, 09:47:44 AM
Theres a big difference between "shutting down" and requiring masks in businesses  closing bars or inside restaurants

If I ran a state Id monitor hospitalizations and deaths closely and not shut down unless our hospitals were being over run
I'm happy living in a midwestern state w/o restrictions and low unemployment

if it wasn't for winter weather........
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 02, 2020, 10:06:32 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 02, 2020, 08:03:31 AM
And there you are.

What should we be doing differently, right now?
Honestly I think everyone's hands are tied here. Country won't accept another lockdown. They'll just have friends/family over to their houses. It's what people are doing now anyway. Played golf with one of my homebrew club buddies yesterday, and he was hung over because "we just had a bunch of people over for Halloween." Got home and that evening the neighbors across the street were having a pretty rocking Dia de los Muertos party. 

As stated, I'm guilty too. I'm going out and seeing people outside my household at a WAY higher rate than I was even 2 months ago. 

Lock it down again, and none of that changes unless we have draconian enforcement. 

So, we're basically just going to run the experiment and see what happens. 

Quote from: utee94 on November 02, 2020, 09:27:26 AM
Cases have been steadily increasing across Europe since August, 8-10 weeks ago, but the corresponding increase in deaths is minimal compared to what it was last Spring, even accounting for a 3-4 week lag.

Except in the Czech Republic, which I still find perplexing.
We can't really compare to Spring, as the testing was so limited that I don't think the case numbers were meaningful. I'd compare to the Jul/Aug spike, but of course that's hard because Europe was still locked down and didn't have a Jul/Aug spike. Comparing to our own Jul/Aug spike in cases and deaths, though, will give us a lot more data about whether treatments are meaningfully improving of if there's a huge demographic shift in cases. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 02, 2020, 10:20:44 AM
Good point about missing cases in Spring.  My kid in Texas was never counted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 02, 2020, 10:22:09 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 02, 2020, 10:06:32 AM

We can't really compare to Spring, as the testing was so limited that I don't think the case numbers were meaningful. I'd compare to the Jul/Aug spike, but of course that's hard because Europe was still locked down and didn't have a Jul/Aug spike. Comparing to our own Jul/Aug spike in cases and deaths, though, will give us a lot more data about whether treatments are meaningfully improving of if there's a huge demographic shift in cases.

The testing in Europe in Spring was limited to where it is now, for sure.  But if the current death rate is held constant and applied backward to last Spring, then the number of presumed-but-not-tested positive cases last Spring skyrockets to a really huge number.

Which might prove badgerfan's point, everyone's already had it.  Twice. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 02, 2020, 10:36:10 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 02, 2020, 08:41:23 AM
In the last 5 weeks the weekly new case count has increased by aprox 78%

In the same time period the weekly death count has increased by aprox 11%


Hope the death count holds until we can turn the corner on new cases
5 weeks is important, as that's basically when we saw the cases turn.

So go back 3 weeks. That's Oct 12. (Sorry, should be Oct 11 as I was assuming 3 weeks from Nov 2 and don't want to retype everything below).

Oct 12 we had a daily 7-day MA case rate of about 50.7K. 2 weeks prior to that (to get to the 5 week total) on Sep 28 we had a 7-day MA case rate of 41.7K. That's a 21.5% increase.

Now, because we know there's a roughly 3 week lag between cases and deaths, we compare today's 7-day MA against the 7-day MA two weeks ago.

Nov 1 we have a 7-day MA for deaths of 851. Two weeks prior (Oct 18) was 726. That's a 17.2% increase.

So we don't have quite a proportional rise in deaths (at this point), as only about 80% of new cases seem to convert into a rise in deaths. 

But... We look at Oct 12 and we had 50.7K cases (7-day MA). Yesterday that number moved up to 82.7K. That's a 63.1% increase in the past 3 weeks. If the same 80% number holds, we should see a 50.5% increase in deaths by Nov 22.

So my prediction for the 7-day MA of daily death rate, on Nov 22, is that we'll be at about 1281/day. 

Let's revisit in 3 weeks and see if that holds...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 02, 2020, 11:12:01 AM
I went back and used your assumption of 80% and also using a current death rate of aprox 1.85% of positives and come up with 1,238 daily death average

this is close enough to your number so no need for debate

the question is will the 80% number and the 1.85% number remain constant or will they both decrease over time which is what I think will happen

it will be interesting to see

I hope we are going to be way too high on the estimates
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 02, 2020, 11:17:39 AM
I hope we don't see the rise in cases continue. But I fear we will.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 02, 2020, 11:21:46 AM
I couldn't offer any reason our case counts would peak and drop short of a vaccine or lock down.  I don't know why we had the ebb in Aub/Sept really either.

The new strain idea is plausible though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 02, 2020, 11:45:14 AM
case counts have peaked and dropped in the past

hoping it happens again very soon
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 02, 2020, 11:46:20 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 02, 2020, 11:21:46 AM
I couldn't offer any reason our case counts would peak and drop short of a vaccine or lock down.  I don't know why we had the ebb in Aub/Sept really either.

The new strain idea is plausible though.
could school openings and football both pro and college have anything to do with it

plus catching it from Europe maybe
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 02, 2020, 11:53:59 AM
I blame high school fall sports

not...  Football "the game" isn't a super spreader event

maybe practice and meeting rooms for one team
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 02, 2020, 11:57:21 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 02, 2020, 11:53:59 AM
I blame high school fall sports

not...  Football "the game" isn't a super spreader event

maybe practice and meeting rooms for one team
I hadnt even thought of High School sports
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 02, 2020, 11:58:41 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 02, 2020, 11:21:46 AM
I couldn't offer any reason our case counts would peak and drop short of a vaccine or lock down.  I don't know why we had the ebb in Aub/Sept really either.

The new strain idea is plausible though.
Only reason I can think of is that the 2nd wave scared everyone, and caused them to modify their behavior. Obviously I have no real evidence for that than just my gut feelings, but I got the sense that people hoped we were through it after Mar/Apr, and then realized with the 2nd wave that it was coming back hard. 

Just from a "public opinion" point of view, it doesn't seem that the 3rd wave is scaring anyone into modifying their behavior. My gut feeling from people I interact with is that they're just going to chance it. 

New strain might be a possibility, but I don't know if that Spanish strain hitting Europe has made it over here?

Quote from: longhorn320 on November 02, 2020, 11:46:20 AM
could school openings and football both pro and college have anything to do with it

plus catching it from Europe maybe
I don't think K-12 school openings have necessarily caused much. Obviously it's hitting colleges as living-on-campus student behavior is a lot harder to regulate than K-12. 

So far it seems that the crowds at football games are limited and pretty observant of social distancing. My worry was that college football crowds would all be jammed into the "good seats" by the second half of games, but so far it seems they've policed that pretty well. 

My belief is just that collectively we as a society are not particularly vigilant any more. We've grown tired of it, and are just throwing up our hands and saying "I'm going to do X and what happens, happens."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 02, 2020, 12:30:28 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 02, 2020, 11:58:41 AM


My belief is just that collectively we as a society are not particularly vigilant any more. We've grown tired of it, and are just throwing up our hands and saying "I'm going to do X and what happens, happens."
Yes, and unless/until it overwhelms hospitals in a specific region, it's hard to say that this isn't a reasonable attitude to take at this point. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 02, 2020, 12:35:08 PM
seems to me that washing your hands didn't help much

seems to me that wearing masks doesn't help enough

seems to me that the only thing that works is social distancing and more importantly, just staying home!  Don't go out and about!

obviously, more and more folks are not willing to stay locked up in a safe place.  They are going out and mingling in small or larger groups.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 02, 2020, 12:38:18 PM
The High schools here are not reporting much infection aside from one county, which suggests it would get reported if it were bad.

The one county is 30 schools apparently (Cobb).

https://www.mdjonline.com/news/cobb-county-schools-reporting-covid-19-cases-at-30-schools/article_47207ba2-1aeb-11eb-9657-cb29111190cd.html

Cobb County’s COVID-19 Numbers for Friday
[th]Category[/th]
[th]10/30[/th]
[th]Change[/th]
[th]Cases[/th]
22,132+73
[th]Hospitalizations[/th]
1,988+8
[th]Deaths[/th]
458+1


Georgia’s COVID-19 Numbers for Friday

[th]Category[/th]
[th]10/30[/th]
[th]Change[/th]
[th]Cases[/th]
358,225+1,538
[th]Hospitalizations[/th]
31,606+90
[th]Deaths[/th]
7,955+35



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 02, 2020, 01:02:10 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 02, 2020, 12:35:08 PM
seems to me that washing your hands didn't help much

seems to me that wearing masks doesn't help enough

seems to me that the only thing that works is social distancing and more importantly, just staying home!  Don't go out and about!

obviously, more and more folks are not willing to stay locked up in a safe place.  They are going out and mingling in small or larger groups.
I think masks work quite well. 

This study by Vanderbilt (https://www.vumc.org/health-policy/sites/default/files/public_files/Vanderbilt COVID19 Report-Oct 27.pdf) compares hospitalizations in Tennessee based on whether their hospitalized cases from from counties with or without mask mandates, and hospitalizations rose much faster in areas w/o mask mandates than areas with. 

Interesting other portion of that study... They looked at whether patronage of bars & restaurants tracked government restrictions or case numbers more closely. 

I.e. if cases are increasing but government doesn't lock down, some may think that bars & restaurants would still see the same level of business. Others [like me] suggest that spikes in cases will cause some people to change their behavior even in the absence of government lockdowns. They found the latter--even without increased local government restrictions, patronage of bars & restaurants went down significantly when cases were rising, i.e. during the Jul/Aug spike and happened again into the Oct spike. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 02, 2020, 01:04:41 PM
The key with masks is not that a mask guarantees your safety; they're not magic. But if enough people are masked, it reduces R0 so that even if individuals are only a little bit safer, society in all does a better job reducing the spread. 

And as I've been saying, the other aspect of masks is if you're only wearing a mask during "commerce" situations, but you're regularly spending lots of time unmasked with people not in your own household [especially indoors], then you can't really claim you're diligent about masks. (Which, as I've mentioned, I am guilty of.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 02, 2020, 01:46:13 PM
If rising cases and publicity impact say a third of the population to avoid going out, it would show up.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 02, 2020, 01:51:33 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 02, 2020, 01:46:13 PM
If rising cases and publicity impact say a third of the population to avoid going out, it would show up.
Yeah, and that's what the Vanderbilt study shows. It's definitely measurable and happening.

I think the longer this goes on, the smaller the size of the effect will be though. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 02, 2020, 01:51:45 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 02, 2020, 01:04:41 PM
The key with masks is not that a mask guarantees your safety; they're not magic. But if enough people are masked, it reduces R0 so that even if individuals are only a little bit safer, society in all does a better job reducing the spread.

And as I've been saying, the other aspect of masks is if you're only wearing a mask during "commerce" situations, but you're regularly spending lots of time unmasked with people not in your own household [especially indoors], then you can't really claim you're diligent about masks. (Which, as I've mentioned, I am guilty of.)

Agree for the most part, but my paranthetical comment would be (pretty much exclusively indoors). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 02, 2020, 01:53:59 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 02, 2020, 01:51:45 PM
Agree for the most part, but my paranthetical comment would be (pretty much exclusively indoors).

Careful, utee... If you keep suggesting outdoors is fine, you'll start getting a lot of the frozen tundra northerners from this board looking at houses in Austin so they can actually be outdoors over the next few months. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 02, 2020, 01:55:11 PM
495,690 tests in Florida, week of 10/25. 28,335 positive. 5.7%.

I'd like to see that get under 5%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 02, 2020, 01:55:44 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 02, 2020, 01:53:59 PM
Careful, utee... If you keep suggesting outdoors is fine, you'll start getting a lot of the frozen tundra northerners from this board looking at houses in Austin so they can actually be outdoors over the next few months.
Good point, but everyone knows outdoor weather in California is way better than Texas! :)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 02, 2020, 01:57:26 PM
So, some portion of the US population would appear to alter their behaviors because of new about COVID.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 02, 2020, 02:01:38 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 02, 2020, 01:55:44 PM
Good point, but everyone knows outdoor weather in California is way better than Texas! :)
Not to be political, but pretty sure none of them are coming to California for other reasons lol :96:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 02, 2020, 02:02:02 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 02, 2020, 02:01:38 PM
Not to be political, but pretty sure none of them are coming to California for other reasons lol :96:
Well then they wouldn't like Austin any better...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 02, 2020, 02:30:34 PM
The 7-day rolling average statewide for the week ending 10/29 was about 5.5%, but percent of positive hits varies widely by area.

https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/stats/covidweekly44.pdf

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 02, 2020, 03:50:19 PM
Wife is seeing on Facebook that apparently people are starting to hoard TP & water again, and apparently hitting up the Costco for huge quantities of meat. 

Anyone seeing similar in your locales?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 02, 2020, 03:55:13 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 02, 2020, 03:50:19 PM
Wife is seeing on Facebook that apparently people are starting to hoard TP & water again, and apparently hitting up the Costco for huge quantities of meat.

Anyone seeing similar in your locales?
Costcos here in MSP have gone to 1 pack of TP per member, but that's the only restriction around here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on November 02, 2020, 04:04:45 PM
Well, someone in my house stored the TP in the wrong place in the garage a couple of weeks ago, so I ended up buying another pack at Costco because it looked like we were low. So I guess we're in the hoarding category, but not on purpose.

I'm less worried about COVID's impact on TP supplies than I am about...getting banned from this board for politics.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 02, 2020, 04:06:07 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on November 02, 2020, 04:04:45 PM
Well, someone in my house stored the TP in the wrong place in the garage a couple of weeks ago, so I ended up buying another pack at Costco because it looked like we were low. So I guess we're in the hoarding category, but not on purpose.

I'm less worried about COVID's impact on TP supplies than I am about...getting banned from this board for politics.
I can't help you with the former, but there's a super simple way to avoid the latter. :)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 02, 2020, 04:08:53 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on November 02, 2020, 04:04:45 PM
Well, someone in my house stored the TP in the wrong place in the garage a couple of weeks ago, so I ended up buying another pack at Costco because it looked like we were low. So I guess we're in the hoarding category, but not on purpose.

I'm less worried about COVID's impact on TP supplies than I am about...getting banned from this board for politics.
I was going to continue the discussion with utee above, but decided not to because despite offering it in fun and jest, I have a feeling it would have turned south. 

Regarding TP and paper towels, the wife is now saying if they have them at Costco I should get some, "just in case". Because people buying what they don't yet need is exactly what exacerbates shortages and supply chain issues in a "hoarding" scenario. 

Oh well. I guess that means if they have them, I'll be hoarding this week. Yay.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on November 02, 2020, 04:10:23 PM
If it were easy, everyone would do it. 

:96:

:)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 02, 2020, 04:14:30 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on November 02, 2020, 04:10:23 PM
If it were easy, everyone would do it.

:96:

:)
I'm preparing the ban-hammer as we speak.

You got something to say? :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 02, 2020, 04:15:24 PM
As I tell my 13 year old son, "learn to read a room" :67:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on November 02, 2020, 04:19:45 PM
I always have something to say.

Like today, when I was p-d at Apple for the automatic update that got stuck halfway through and killed the phone for about seven hours.

:67:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 02, 2020, 04:22:14 PM
I still have some residual stock options in a company that makes a lot of toilet paper, so it's good.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 02, 2020, 05:04:22 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 02, 2020, 04:15:24 PM
As I tell my 13 year old son, "learn to read a room" :67:
geez, talk about a lost art
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 02, 2020, 05:14:27 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on November 02, 2020, 04:19:45 PM
I always have something to say.

Like today, when I was p-d at Apple for the automatic update that got stuck halfway through and killed the phone for about seven hours.

:67:
Ive never had that happen on my Dell
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 02, 2020, 05:17:52 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 02, 2020, 05:14:27 PM
Ive never had that happen on my Dell
I didn't know utee made phones?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 02, 2020, 05:18:51 PM
Ugh, don't bring up Dell phones.  We made a brief but messy foray into that market maybe a decade ago?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on November 02, 2020, 05:23:54 PM
I have two Dell laptops sitting in front of me. One is a chromebook, one uses the MS OS.

It was my iPhone that was the problem. Grrr.

On the bright side, I didn't have any phone calls or texts this morning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 02, 2020, 05:23:57 PM
My 2012 Samsung phone has never had a hiccup, and the battery still rocks for 24 hours.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 02, 2020, 05:24:45 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on November 02, 2020, 05:23:54 PM
I have two Dell laptops sitting in front of me. One is a chromebook, one uses the MS OS.

It was my iPhone that was the problem. Grrr.

On the bright side, I didn't have any phone calls or texts this morning.
I'm using a Surface Pro now. F'ing Bill gates probably inserted a chip in my finger using the keyboard.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 02, 2020, 05:27:15 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 02, 2020, 05:23:57 PM
My 2012 Samsung phone has never had a hiccup, and the battery still rocks for 24 hours.
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 02, 2020, 05:24:45 PM
I'm using a Surface Pro now. F'ing Bill gates probably inserted a chip in my finger using the keyboard.
Don't worry about Bill. That 2012 Samsung is probably doing a great job of tracking you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 02, 2020, 05:29:56 PM
ran an update yesterday that flashed my bios

heart stopping for a novice like me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on November 02, 2020, 05:32:42 PM
You guys want to talk surveillance and the like? My daughter has a "Chuwi" laptop/tablet that has to have ALL of the Chinese intel agencies watching it. So if you start seeing pretty good manga drawings of emo rock stars showing up for sale, let me know and I'll start looking into licensing and IP violations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 02, 2020, 05:41:37 PM
Yeah...uhhhhmmmm.... you're definitely on some national lists with that thing.

Some international ones, too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 02, 2020, 06:04:04 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 02, 2020, 12:35:08 PM
seems to me that washing your hands didn't help much

seems to me that wearing masks doesn't help enough

seems to me that the only thing that works is social distancing and more importantly, just staying home!  Don't go out and about!

obviously, more and more folks are not willing to stay locked up in a safe place.  They are going out and mingling in small or larger groups.
Seems to me too many people never did any of these things.  They only work if we all do them.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 02, 2020, 06:26:07 PM
I don't know this as certain, but I starting to think that some of those that wear masks in public and give me dirty looks and judge me for not wearing a mask are the same folks attending weddings, funerals, and small gatherings and spreading the virus.

They're hearts are in the right place, they just aren't as careful, diligent as they need to be to keep from contacting and spreading the virus
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 02, 2020, 06:27:12 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 02, 2020, 06:04:04 PM
Seems to me too many people never did any of these things.  They only work if we all do them. 
No, they would work if some of us did them to some degree, and of course work better is most did them.  But the virus would spread even if we all did them, just not as fast.

None of these measures are close to 100% effective, they are a deterrence, statistically significant but individually probably irrelevant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 02, 2020, 09:55:52 PM
Thanks, doctor.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 02, 2020, 11:10:36 PM
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fbasementrejects.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2014%2F03%2Fspies-like-us-1985-movie-review-appendix-surgery-chevy-chase-dan-aykroyd-surgeons.jpg&hash=15228736332c19b449ca1616fd2cb3e9)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on November 03, 2020, 01:35:33 AM
Since my positive test Oct. 24, still not one symptom.
Our former neighbor in the nursing home, age 90, positive test, asymptomatic, too, while neighbors around her died from it. When the outbreak occurred she wore a facemask in her room.
As I tried to figure out what might happen to me, I read an article that said perhaps 40% of infected persons are asymptomatic. This is encouraging and discouraging. It highlights the real danger of asymptomatic spread. Healthy appearing people with no cough, and no apparent symptom, who carry it will infect you.
I wore a facemask when I was exposed to clients who later tested positive. My elderly clients didn't wear facemasks when I was present in their home. At the time they did not know they had it.
Epidemiologists are saying that if you wear a facemask and are infected the facemask can reduce the viral load, and your symptoms if you become infected. Wear a facemask.
I am not going through another two-week period with no staff in my office, so a "facemasks required" sign is going up when the office is reopened to clients next week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 03, 2020, 02:04:07 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on November 03, 2020, 01:35:33 AM
Since my positive test Oct. 24, still not one symptom.
Our former neighbor in the nursing home, age 90, positive test, asymptomatic, too, while neighbors around her died from it. When the outbreak occurred she wore a facemask in her room.
As I tried to figure out what might happen to me, I read an article that said perhaps 40% of infected persons are asymptomatic. This is encouraging and discouraging. It highlights the real danger of asymptomatic spread. Healthy appearing people with no cough, and no apparent symptom, who carry it will infect you.
I wore a facemask when I was exposed to clients who later tested positive. My elderly clients didn't wear facemasks when I was present in their home. At the time they did not know they had it.
Epidemiologists are saying that if you wear a facemask and are infected the facemask can reduce the viral load, and your symptoms if you become infected. Wear a facemask.
I am not going through another two-week period with no staff in my office, so a "facemasks required" sign is going up when the office is reopened to clients next week.
why did you get tested
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 03, 2020, 06:43:09 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 02, 2020, 09:55:52 PM
Thanks, doctor.
Again Obe Wan as 847 put to you 

"What should we be doing differently, right now?"

And as the Breakfast Club put it"answer the question,Claire"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 03, 2020, 07:09:03 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 02, 2020, 09:55:52 PM
Thanks, doctor.
You apparently don't know much about CDawg (or much of anything about this virus).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on November 03, 2020, 07:28:38 AM
Pretty much an aside, but it would be nice to see more focus on giving people a working knowledge of evolution and biology in their education.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 03, 2020, 07:30:55 AM
I agree 100% with that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 03, 2020, 07:51:22 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hd0CeJqduhQ&feature=youtu.be
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2020, 08:32:16 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 02, 2020, 09:55:52 PM
Thanks, doctor.
You are welcome.  I am so rarely called that though, it sounds weird.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2020, 08:33:59 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on November 03, 2020, 07:28:38 AM
Pretty much an aside, but it would be nice to see more focus on giving people a working knowledge of evolution and biology in their education. 
If you emphasize one thing more, you deemphasize something else, like say early Phoenician history or something.

And of course, some people are highly resistant to learning anything about some topics.

It's the Devil.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2020, 08:35:19 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on November 03, 2020, 01:35:33 AM
Since my positive test Oct. 24, still not one symptom.
There is some fairly significant chance it was a false positive, unless you were retested.  Saban had one.

I still don't know how often that happens, and it depends on the specific test used.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 03, 2020, 08:37:40 AM
The false happen with the rapid tests. Not too many happen with the swab tests.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 03, 2020, 08:58:11 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on November 03, 2020, 01:35:33 AM
Since my positive test Oct. 24, still not one symptom.

Glad you are doing well. I'm sure the positive result freaked you out a bit, so it's good it didn't develop into something severe. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2020, 09:21:29 AM
France reported over 52,000 new cases yesterday, they have 1.3 million know active cases, but 3,730 are classified as critical.

Daily death toll is still 200-400.

If these figures are "mature" (they are not), it would mean less than ten percent get critical and less than 1% are fatal. 

I exchanged emails with friends who live in a tiny village east of Paris.  They are buttoned down, they are elderly and complying with the rules.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on November 03, 2020, 10:48:38 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 03, 2020, 02:04:07 AM
why did you get tested
Five-days after I met with a client for 20-minutes, I learned he tested positive. Later that 5th day, his wife who was present tested positive. I met in their home. I had a mask on, they did not. They exhibited no symptoms. I tested the 6th day after I met them with the swab up the nostril.

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 03, 2020, 08:35:19 AM

There is some fairly significant chance it was a false positive, unless you were retested.  Saban had one.

I still don't know how often that happens, and it depends on the specific test used.
I have thought about this, and with the type of test I had I read, from not a reliable source, but I think it was an article about Nick Saban retesting 3-straight days, that there may be a 5% false positive rate on this, the most reliable form of testing. They don't really know - it's more of an estimate.

With the disruption this caused in my office, - it effects my secretary, my wife, and me, and my parents calling everyday to be sure I am still okay, when I reopen there will be a sign on the office door, "By appointment only." And another sign, "No Facemask, No Entry."

Quote from: bwarbiany on November 03, 2020, 08:58:11 AM

Glad you are doing well. Thank you. I'm sure the positive result freaked you out a bit, so it's good it didn't develop into something severe. I was surprised and shocked. I reflected on the test result every time I cleared my throat. I called the doctor's nurse to ask her to recheck my chart. I thought the message they left must be wrong. I was afraid to get out of bed in the morning for fear this was the day I'd have a massive headache. As the days went on, I gained confidence nothing would happen and I'd have the advantage of being immune 3-9 months.
The first few days my wife scolded me and put me in the doghouse, but it's better than no house at all.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on November 03, 2020, 11:40:35 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on November 03, 2020, 07:28:38 AM
Pretty much an aside, but it would be nice to see more focus on giving people a working knowledge of evolution and biology in their education. 
Two things from me today--neither political (I think).

First, with two teenagers in public school right now, I have a pretty good sense for the education they receive. It's good. If anything, I think they over teach things, meaning they feed too much information, not too little. That makes it hard for the kids to remember a lot of it. Still, the teaching standards are good. What students do with that information is the key. There are plenty of people who have access to good education that don't seem to take much of it in. That's just as true (if not more so) of the older folks.

Second, on the coronavirus front, I'm in the office today, for the first time since March. Downtown ess-eff is pretty dead. It's weird. I also realized its the first time in nine months that I've been looking at a significantly elevated view of the landscape from a tall building. Also weird. But it's still a good view. :-)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 03, 2020, 11:57:21 AM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on November 03, 2020, 11:40:35 AM
Two things from me today--neither political (I think).

First, with two teenagers in public school right now, I have a pretty good sense for the education they receive. It's good. If anything, I think they over teach things, meaning they feed too much information, not too little. That makes it hard for the kids to remember a lot of it. Still, the teaching standards are good. What students do with that information is the key. There are plenty of people who have access to good education that don't seem to take much of it in. That's just as true (if not more so) of the older folks.

Second, on the coronavirus front, I'm in the office today, for the first time since March. Downtown ess-eff is pretty dead. It's weird. I also realized its the first time in nine months that I've been looking at a significantly elevated view of the landscape from a tall building. Also weird. But it's still a good view. :-)
Are your schools open?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 03, 2020, 12:19:50 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 03, 2020, 07:51:22 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hd0CeJqduhQ&feature=youtu.be
your nation, your news???
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2020, 12:23:25 PM
That OAN "report", as I presume we all know, was garbage, entirely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 03, 2020, 12:23:41 PM
Quote from: Hawkinole on November 03, 2020, 10:48:38 AM
Five-days after I met with a client for 20-minutes, I learned he tested positive. Later that 5th day, his wife who was present tested positive. I met in their home. I had a mask on, they did not. They exhibited no symptoms. I tested the 6th day after I met them with the swab up the nostril.


With the disruption this caused in my office, - it effects my secretary, my wife, and me, and my parents calling everyday to be sure I am still okay, when I reopen there will be a sign on the office door, "By appointment only." And another sign, "No Facemask, No Entry."




I think a mask gives folks a false sense of security.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 03, 2020, 12:24:26 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 03, 2020, 12:23:25 PM
That OAN "report", as I presume we all know, was garbage, entirely.
nah, I'm not going to post what I was thinking
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 03, 2020, 01:01:28 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 03, 2020, 11:57:21 AM
Are your schools open?
Don't know how it is up in the Bay Area, but schools are open here in Orange County. Already had one report of a 7th grader (same as my eldest) self-quarantining due to possible exposure, but apparently that didn't result in a case. Then got an email about "low risk contact" for my 6th grader which I've since learned is due to a staff member at that school having a confirmed positive. 

Neither school has had any changes to their opening or their policies as far as I can tell since that. 

Quote from: FearlessF on November 03, 2020, 12:23:41 PM
I think a mask gives folks a false sense of security.
That can still be a lot better than no mask at all. 

The big thing from @Hawkinole (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=25) 's story was that while he was wearing a mask, neither client was. The biggest advantage of a mask isn't to protect you, but it's to catch a lot of the stuff coming out of your own mouth and protect others. So if you're contagious and don't know it (which appears to be the case here), you can keep from spreading it by using a mask. He probably wouldn't have contracted it if his clients had masks on, regardless of whether he did.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on November 03, 2020, 01:23:41 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 03, 2020, 11:57:21 AM
Are your schools open?
Our schools are remote right now. It's looking like the middle school will include some, small in-person component after Thanksgiving.

It's a drag. They are doing a much better job now than they were doing in the Spring, but it's still a hard way to learn. And even so, the kids are getting a lot of good information--my kids are in "science" in 8th grade, and chemistry in 10th, both of which are solid; pre-algebra in 8th, and Algebra II in 10th, currently getting (yet another) lesson on the formation of the nation as a nation (the Revolutionary war, etc), and modern world history (currently focusing on fascism, but with an interlude for U.S. elections, including the Constitution), etc., etc.

The content is good. The delivery mechanism sucks, but is understandable. It's not for lack of teaching that many people don't know a lot of the information that this group would consider basic.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 03, 2020, 01:32:31 PM
The content can be the best ever, but the delivery mechanism is so woefully insufficient, I'd say that it's only about 25% effective.  And that's with my kids who are both straight-A+ students.

For disadvantaged kids, they're not moving forward at all and in many cases, are regressing.  Badly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 03, 2020, 01:58:48 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 03, 2020, 01:32:31 PM
The content can be the best ever, but the delivery mechanism is so woefully insufficient, I'd say that it's only about 25% effective.  And that's with my kids who are both straight-A+ students.

For disadvantaged kids, they're not moving forward at all and in many cases, are regressing.  Badly.
I was talking with my wife about just a complete do-over. Skip the year, and start over next year.

I'm not sure that's a great idea, but it's an idea.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on November 03, 2020, 01:59:25 PM
This is absolutely a much more challenging situation for kids with economic disadvantages, and kids whose parents/caregivers have to work outside the home (like cops and health care workers, but also including those who work in brick and mortar retail, including grocers, food service, etc.).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on November 03, 2020, 02:07:04 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 03, 2020, 01:58:48 PM
I was talking with my wife about just a complete do-over. Skip the year, and start over next year.

I'm not sure that's a great idea, but it's an idea.
This is a really interesting question. I've spent a lot more time recently thinking about the goals for K-12 education. How much of what is taught in any given year is critical to every student's life.

As a simple example, if a teenager goes a year without PE, do they really need to repeat the year to make that up? What about other electives?

Surely a high school graduate needs basic math skills, but do they need trigonometry and algebra 2 (let alone calculus)? How much English/literature learning do they need? What base of history/government does a high school graduate need?

Surely many students who go on to college will require more math, more literature, more civics, but are those things really required for a high school diploma? If so, why?

I'm not sure what the answer to this is. You can tell from my question that I'm not sure "repeating a grade" necessarily makes sense. But I'm not sure how you decide what is critical, and what can be left off. And once you've made that decision, what does it mean about the high school curriculum going forward? Is this a moment that will be a catalyst for a significant re-thinking of the education system?

 A high school diploma is a gatekeeper for a lot of jobs that will never rely on most of what the curriculum includes. Emancipated adults (e.g., 18-year olds) should have what they need to live independently/make their own choices.

Anyway, it's an interesting thought piece.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 03, 2020, 02:10:58 PM
I think math up to trig should be required for everyone, and everyone should have 4 years of hard science.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2020, 02:14:05 PM
I recollect we had to have two years in high school or most subjects, and four years of English (9-12).  Foreign language (I took Latin, waste of time), science, math, history, etc.  We'd all like the learning to be better, but if you want more time spent on X, you have less spent on Y, unless you eliminate study halls.

The thing about history and social studies for me was how BORING they were, usually taught by coaches, and just boring.  Memorize and regurgitate and forget.  I helped the wife with her citizenship exam (she was stressed over it) and was fairly impressed with the exam questions (presuming you'd need to know them all anyway, they asked her maybe 4 of them?).  But for your average 15 year old, learning about the three branches of government is "Why do I need to know this?".

I knew some well educated "friends" in Cincinnati who were astonished to learn that the candidate who gets fewer popular votes can WIN, I'm serious, people with college degrees, and who profess to pay attention to the "news".  And then they were astonished to be told (by me) that it was very very very difficult to change that "rule".  They couldn't understand why or how and thought it was "unfair".  One got mad at me, literally, and told me I couldn't possibly be telling her the truth.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2020, 02:15:02 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 03, 2020, 02:10:58 PM
I think math up to trig should be required for everyone, and everyone should have 4 years of hard science.
What about 4 years of easy science?

I think MANY students would not benefit from this at all, unfortunately, and the ones who would already take it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 03, 2020, 02:18:14 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 03, 2020, 02:10:58 PM
I think math up to trig should be required for everyone, and everyone should have 4 years of hard science.

I don't think everyone needs trig.  People going into engineering and hard sciences typically do, but Algebra 1 and Geometry should be sufficient for pretty much anyone graduating high school and NOT headed into engineering/mathematics/science.  I'd like to see "Practical Math" required in high school for anyone not going the trig/calculus route.  Things like money management, balancing account statements, credit card implications, budgeting.  

For sciences, I'm not sure you need 4 years of hard science in high school.  I took biology, chemistry, and physics, which were sufficient and appropriate for me.  Physiology was also offered but I didn't really want or need to take that.  Folks going into biology/premed type stuff obviously could sub physiology for physics and be okay.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2020, 02:36:01 PM
My son took three years of IB physics in high school.  He and another kid talked them into providing it that year.  I think they had five guys in the class.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 03, 2020, 02:43:18 PM
Not sure why anyone would need 3 years of specifically physics in high school?  UT's engineering program doesn't let you place out of it anyway, it's required for all freshmen.

I took one year of AP Physics and it had me appropriately prepared for the Honors Engineering Physics freshman section in college.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2020, 03:14:16 PM
I don't think he needed it at all.  He just like challenges.  They never had taught a third year, but it exists in the IB grouping.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 03, 2020, 03:26:05 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 03, 2020, 03:14:16 PM
I don't think he needed it at all.  He just like challenges.  They never had taught a third year, but it exists in the IB grouping.


Hmmm, okay.  I really liked physics (still do) but I only had room in my schedule for one science class per year, and I'm definitely glad I took bio and chemistry in addition to physics.  In fact, chemistry helped me a ton, since I ended up in semiconductor processing for the first ten years of me engineering career.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2020, 03:36:06 PM
True story, I made a D in freshman chemistry at UGA.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on November 03, 2020, 03:45:22 PM
Reminds me of an engineer I know who got an A in differential equations, but didn't think he really understood it, so he took it again...and got a C.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 03, 2020, 03:48:11 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 03, 2020, 02:10:58 PM
I think math up to trig should be required for everyone, and everyone should have 4 years of hard science.
You should spend 2 years in a slit trench at a lube stop and another 2 waterpropping homes - the ones with basements - in the upper midwest - without a back hoe - and no Italian beef or scotch afterward
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 03, 2020, 03:48:20 PM
That was a tough class.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2020, 03:50:52 PM
My DiffEq class had a 15 year old kid in it, he was the prof's son.  

He made an A.  So did I.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 03, 2020, 03:50:58 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 03, 2020, 03:36:06 PM
True story, I made a D in freshman chemistry at UGA.
Should of went to Cal-Berkley,they'd made damn sure you cleared that up
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 03, 2020, 04:00:10 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 03, 2020, 03:50:52 PM
My DiffEq class had a 15 year old kid in it, he was the prof's son. 

He made an A.  So did I.
As did I, but it was one of the toughest A's I ever got, and I got those in all but 4-5 classes out of 160 credits.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 03, 2020, 04:03:13 PM
I got an A in DiffEQ and though it was tough-- until I took senior-level Electromagnetics.  And Solid State Physics.  And Electrical Circuit Theory II.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on November 03, 2020, 04:04:57 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 03, 2020, 01:01:28 PM

The big thing from @Hawkinole (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=25) 's story was that while he was wearing a mask, neither client was. The biggest advantage of a mask isn't to protect you, but it's to catch a lot of the stuff coming out of your own mouth and protect others. So if you're contagious and don't know it (which appears to be the case here), you can keep from spreading it by using a mask. He probably wouldn't have contracted it if his clients had masks on, regardless of whether he did.
I put a plexiglass shield in front of my receptionist with space beneath it to pass documents. I have no receptionist now -- she was told to stay home until after my isolation is over. I am looking carefully at the shield now that I am using her work station -- it is amazing how many dried droplets I see. And I cleaned it at least once since putting it up a  couple months ago. This is not a grocery store. I haven't had many people in here since I put it up. Now I can see people naturally spit, more than I knew, when they talk.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 03, 2020, 04:24:12 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 03, 2020, 04:03:13 PM
I got an A in DiffEQ and though it was tough-- until I took senior-level Electromagnetics.  And Solid State Physics.  And Electrical Circuit Theory II.
Must be like Purdue's EE 311: Electromagnetic fields and waves.

Basically it's the E&M physics semester, on crack. The only class I've ever needed to use triple integrals. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 03, 2020, 04:25:55 PM
DiffEQ was awful. It also didn't help that I was routed into the liberal arts math schedule instead of the engineer math series. It was my hardest class... until I took deformable body mechanics, steel and reinforced concrete design, and fluid mechanics. Oof.

I'll admit I was much more in the survive-and-advance camp than the deans list. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 03, 2020, 04:40:39 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 03, 2020, 04:24:12 PM
Must be like Purdue's EE 311: Electromagnetic fields and waves.

Basically it's the E&M physics semester, on crack. The only class I've ever needed to use triple integrals.
Yeah, that's exactly what it was.  I think it was EE423 at Texas.  Actually not a senior level course now that I think about it, I took it my junior year as I recall.  Triple integrals for sure.  That class was... intense.

I really loved the chemistry and physics behind Solid State, though.  It was really interesting studying wafer doping in theory, and then working directly in the field of particle acceleration and ion implantation for several years after graduation. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2020, 05:06:51 PM
My hardest undergrad course was PChem.

My hardest in grad school was called Bonding.  The professor would lecture and I would read the text book, and nothing made sense.  I somehow made a P.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 03, 2020, 05:14:28 PM
61,332 tests in Florida yesterday. 7.49% positive. Not good. I want to see under 5%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 03, 2020, 07:44:02 PM
I'd like to see under 15% in Iowa
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 04, 2020, 09:08:13 AM
Georgia still fairly stable on new cases, edging up some but not bad.

Europe MIGHT be at a peak (we all hope), but that is way too early to call, it would be a weekend blip.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 04, 2020, 11:22:34 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/zGFQnEu.png)

That is deaths, you can see the parallel situation pretty clearly, offset by about two weeks.  The US has not YET started back up that hill thought it is trending a bit.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 04, 2020, 11:34:40 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 04, 2020, 11:22:34 AM
That is deaths, you can see the parallel situation pretty clearly, offset by about two weeks.  The US has not YET started back up that hill thought it is trending a bit.
Yeah, we're trending up but the shape of the rise has been linear, not following [YET] the curve in cases. 

If we're going to follow the curve, we should start seeing it the remainder of this week. If it remains a more linear rise, that's a good sign.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 04, 2020, 12:20:11 PM
We're beating this thing!  Our spread is no longer astronomical!
Sir, I think you mean 'exponential'.
Right, yes!  It's more of a straight, slanted line you can make with a ruler!
Did you mean 'linear,' sir?
Yes, line-ee-er.  And speaking of rulers, a great ruler,...myself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 04, 2020, 12:21:51 PM
I personally don't find that last post helpful or topical.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 04, 2020, 12:27:14 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 04, 2020, 12:21:51 PM
I personally don't find that last post helpful or topical.
I'm not even remotely comprehending what it is trying to say. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 04, 2020, 12:37:57 PM
I do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 04, 2020, 12:41:21 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 04, 2020, 12:27:14 PM
I'm not even remotely comprehending what it is trying to say.
It is political sarcasm, maybe we should delete it, to keep this thread fairly on topic.

France reported 854 new deaths yesterday from COVID, that is not a good sign, but it's one day. The US was just shy of 1200.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 04, 2020, 01:20:45 PM
Minnesota's COVID numbers are going hard in the wrong direction. 

https://www.kare11.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/live-updates-covid-19-developments-in-minnesota/89-947478e4-dc41-4526-818a-f028ed80c5fb?fbclid=IwAR3Mzw26mGYPW9Mh4IunZIjU7YTvjYyww76aJSYnjod2bwZFuL4a6JCrdE0

Trying to find detailed info on number of tests ran, percentage positive, etc. 

5 very large metro school districts that started as some combination of hybrid in-person will be back in full distance by the end of the week due to COVID.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 04, 2020, 01:39:33 PM
We've got 60 people quarantining from my school, so that's fun. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 04, 2020, 01:56:23 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 04, 2020, 01:39:33 PM
We've got 60 people quarantining from my school, so that's fun. 
I don't know if you have privacy laws that stop you from elaborating, but I'd love to hear a little more about the cause...

Was this driven by a positive case and they're quarantining about possible exposure? Is there a legitimate school outbreak? 

What is the school doing generally as mitigation? Are they enforcing mask wearing and physical distancing? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 04, 2020, 02:05:04 PM
How many students and staff are in the school?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 04, 2020, 04:19:48 PM
My 11yo son's in-person 5th grade class of 20 people is back at home now.  One positive case in their classroom who tested positive last Tuesday, and the school was notified on Wednesday.  So the entire class (and teacher) are all quarantined and back at home online now, for 14 days starting last Wednesday.

The school wasn't allowed to tell me who it was, but my son and all the kids knew, since there was one student who'd been out of class since the prior Friday.

So that Friday was his last possible direct contact, he came home on Wednesday, and I had him tested on Thursday.  It came up negative, and he's had zero symptoms.  Nobody else in the class including the teacher have had any symptoms, either, though I don't know if anyone else has been tested.

Anyway, one more week at home, then they'll all be back in school with their 14 days behind them.

That's going to be our reality for a while.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 04, 2020, 04:32:16 PM
I got the guidelines today for baseball camp, pretty detailed, and the wife and I both will have to show test results.  We'll have staggered dressing times so folks are not dressing right next to each other.  

The vaccine news remains promising, and I think that is the only thing that "controls" this eventually.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 04, 2020, 04:56:02 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 04, 2020, 04:19:48 PM
My 11yo son's in-person 5th grade class of 20 people is back at home now.  One positive case in their classroom who tested positive last Tuesday, and the school was notified on Wednesday.  So the entire class (and teacher) are all quarantined and back at home online now, for 14 days starting last Wednesday.

The school wasn't allowed to tell me who it was, but my son and all the kids knew, since there was one student who'd been out of class since the prior Friday.

So that Friday was his last possible direct contact, he came home on Wednesday, and I had him tested on Thursday.  It came up negative, and he's had zero symptoms.  Nobody else in the class including the teacher have had any symptoms, either, though I don't know if anyone else has been tested.

Anyway, one more week at home, then they'll all be back in school with their 14 days behind them.

That's going to be our reality for a while.
What happens to your other kids during this scenario? 

I realize it would be hell, but the *right* thing to do if one of my kids had to quarantine would be to quarantine my other kids too. Because if one was exposed and tests positive, he'd likely infect the others who could take it to their schools. 

But that would be troublesome, because apparently the school that two of them go to don't really have a good way to move you from in-person to distance learning individually. So if for example the 7th graders were ALL quarantined and doing distance learning because of one positive test, my 2nd grader would have two weeks completely off school because she's "in person" not distance. 

So many worries... Just hoping that if something like this happens it happens while they're at their mom's house lol...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 04, 2020, 05:06:01 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 04, 2020, 04:56:02 PM
What happens to your other kids during this scenario?

I realize it would be hell, but the *right* thing to do if one of my kids had to quarantine would be to quarantine my other kids too. Because if one was exposed and tests positive, he'd likely infect the others who could take it to their schools.

But that would be troublesome, because apparently the school that two of them go to don't really have a good way to move you from in-person to distance learning individually. So if for example the 7th graders were ALL quarantined and doing distance learning because of one positive test, my 2nd grader would have two weeks completely off school because she's "in person" not distance.

So many worries... Just hoping that if something like this happens it happens while they're at their mom's house lol...

That's why I got him tested immediately.  A negative test plus no symptoms, along with no symptoms for anyone else in the household, and I've made the decision that the rest of the family is okay to interact in our normal masked, socially distanced way, when we leave the house.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 04, 2020, 05:07:42 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 04, 2020, 05:06:01 PM
That's why I got him tested immediately.  A negative test plus no symptoms, along with no symptoms for anyone else in the household, and I've made the decision that the rest of the family is okay to interact in our normal masked, socially distanced way, when we leave the house.
Good idea. I hadn't considered using a test as a decision-making process there. Especially since you waited 6 days to test him.

So I guess he's only had it twice, but the test was negative so he didn't get it thrice :57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 04, 2020, 05:09:11 PM
Oh one other thing, the state's contact tracing group, contacted me within 2 hours of when the school let me know.  Just thought that would be of interest to some, who are concerned about the level of contact tracing occurring around the USA.

In my family's two "brushes with COVID" the state contact-traced us within 24 hours of being notified of the positive case that occurred within our surroundings.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 04, 2020, 05:11:03 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 04, 2020, 05:07:42 PM
Good idea. I hadn't considered using a test as a decision-making process there. Especially since you waited 6 days to test him.

So I guess he's only had it twice, but the test was negative so he didn't get it thrice :57:
That is exactly my assumption!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: DevilFroggy on November 04, 2020, 05:25:55 PM
There hasn't been too many cases at the elementary school my kids go to that I'm aware of, and none reported in either of their classes yet. Since the ex wife works from home worst case if one or both has to quarantine it's not the end of the world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 04, 2020, 06:10:42 PM
Quote from: DevilFroggy on November 04, 2020, 05:25:55 PM
There hasn't been too many cases at the elementary school my kids go to that I'm aware of, and none reported in either of their classes yet. Since the ex wife works from home worst case if one or both has to quarantine it's not the end of the world.
Yeah this is the only case at the elementary school so far, and it didn't come from school, the child brought it with them.  No evidence of transmission from that child to any other child, or to any adults in school, so we should be good to go when the 14 days is up.

Until the next one, of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 04, 2020, 11:00:12 PM
Quote from: DevilFroggy on November 04, 2020, 05:25:55 PM
There hasn't been too many cases at the elementary school my kids go to that I'm aware of, and none reported in either of their classes yet. Since the ex wife works from home worst case if one or both has to quarantine it's not the end of the world.
You wouldn't know unless your child was directly affected.  They keep it hush-hush, with the excuse that to avoid cases being double-counted, they report it solely to the state/covid-tracking body. 

Meanwhile, everyone at a school is still sending their kids everyday, none the wiser.

Other teachers aren't told when the class next door to them has cases.  I've only been told how many we had out as those initially told to stay home are coming back in a couple of days.  

Arizona is an immoral shithole that relies on being out west and no one truly giving a damn.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 04, 2020, 11:01:16 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 04, 2020, 06:10:42 PM
Yeah this is the only case at the elementary school so far, and it didn't come from school, the child brought it with them.  
Were you expecting covid to leap out from the water fountain?  How else would it happen besides a child bringing it with them??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 04, 2020, 11:05:22 PM
And oh yeah, hey @longhorn320 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=16) :

100,000 new cases in one day
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 04, 2020, 11:51:27 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 04, 2020, 11:01:16 PM
Were you expecting covid to leap out from the water fountain?  How else would it happen besides a child bringing it with them??

It wasn't an adult in the school that transmitted to the student, nor was it another student-- it was someone in that covid-positive student's family/circle/environment.

And from the other students and teachers that had "first-hand contact" with the covid-positive student, none have developed symptoms.  I made the initial distinction to demonstrate that this was not a case of in-school transmission.

In the case of my son, the "first-hand contact" was all the way across the room, and this person isn't a close friend so they weren't interacting together outside during recess or PE, either.


The idea of a virus leaping from a water fountain is amusing, however.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 05, 2020, 12:16:25 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 04, 2020, 11:00:12 PM
You wouldn't know unless your child was directly affected.  They keep it hush-hush, with the excuse that to avoid cases being double-counted, they report it solely to the state/covid-tracking body. 

Meanwhile, everyone at a school is still sending their kids everyday, none the wiser.

Other teachers aren't told when the class next door to them has cases.  I've only been told how many we had out as those initially told to stay home are coming back in a couple of days. 

Arizona is an immoral shithole that relies on being out west and no one truly giving a damn.
What, you don't have something like this? 
https://www.svusd.org/departments/facilities-operations-technology/safety/covid-19-reporting 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 05, 2020, 12:54:45 AM
Nope.  And I doubt they'd maintain theirs if too many zeros changed to crooked, multiple-digit numbers, either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on November 05, 2020, 01:41:33 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 04, 2020, 05:09:11 PM
Oh one other thing, the state's contact tracing group, contacted me within 2 hours of when the school let me know.  Just thought that would be of interest to some, who are concerned about the level of contact tracing occurring around the USA.

In my family's two "brushes with COVID" the state contact-traced us within 24 hours of being notified of the positive case that occurred within our surroundings.
I was contacted by the Iowa Department of Public Health 5-days after my positive test. By then I had already contacted every known contact I recalled. But one of the elderly persons I contracted from didn't know she shouldn't do her own grocery shopping. 
I am not blaming her. She is 89, a lovely person, but many are simply unaware. We all need to do better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 05, 2020, 08:39:03 AM
Probably like everywhere, the grocery stores here are pushing at home shopping hard.  And the store has more Kroger employees shopping than shoppers.

But when you are 89, you likely won't even see the news this is possible.  You likely don't know what Amazon is, not because you are stupid, but because you are rather set in your ways and don't understand all that newfangled stuff, and are somewhat reticent to trying new things.

And of course, a lot of efforts exist to take your money like Joe Namath.  So, these folks are understandably conservative unless they have a child who walks them through it.

The scams that come my way are at times amazing, the best ones are IRS scams.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 05, 2020, 08:51:25 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 04, 2020, 11:05:22 PM
And oh yeah, hey @longhorn320 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=16) :

100,000 new cases in one day
Yep I was wrong

OAM you need to get a grip and calm down

we are gonna beat this so chill
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 05, 2020, 08:56:07 AM
France as I note reports roughly 40,000 cases per day, often over 50,000, on a population of 65 million.  That is double our rate.

And they have run just over half as many tests per million pop also, so that isn't it.

And they are significantly in a lock down of course, technically.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 05, 2020, 08:58:24 AM
My expat friend living/working in Paris made it out on the day of the lockdowns, flew back to his home in Austin.

I sure hope he self-quarantines for 14 days, don't want him bringing that new strain of the Spanish China Virus to my area. ;)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 05, 2020, 09:07:36 AM
Our neighbor is just back from Turkey, haven't seen him.  I hate to text and risk waking him up.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 05, 2020, 09:08:34 AM
my doc said that asymptomatic school kids aren't spreading it to others, generally

I'm sure there are exceptions
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 05, 2020, 09:21:40 AM
This ain't good.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54818615

The virus spread to mink, mutated, and spread back to humans. Denmark is destroying their entire mink herd (15-17 million animals) in an attempt to put an end to this mutation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 05, 2020, 09:22:47 AM
PETA won't be happy
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 05, 2020, 09:26:05 AM
Does anyone even wear fur coats anymore? My wife tried to sell hers and she ended up donating them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on November 05, 2020, 09:27:26 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on November 05, 2020, 09:21:40 AM
This ain't good.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54818615

The virus spread to mink, mutated, and spread back to humans. Denmark is destroying their entire mink herd (15-17 million animals) in an attempt to put an end to this mutation.
Man that seems so sad
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 05, 2020, 09:56:14 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on November 05, 2020, 09:21:40 AM
This ain't good.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54818615

The virus spread to mink, mutated, and spread back to humans. Denmark is destroying their entire mink herd (15-17 million animals) in an attempt to put an end to this mutation.
The key here is that this is from a press release and findings have not yet been issued by scientists

If this mutation does make current vaccines under development ineffective we will know shortly

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 05, 2020, 09:59:46 AM
I can remember going to department stores with my mom as a kid, and even at the mid-level type stores we went to (no Saks Fifth Avenue for us), there were always a ton of furs on the racks.

Definitely don't see it nearly as often these days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 05, 2020, 10:01:14 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 05, 2020, 09:08:34 AM
my doc said that asymptomatic school kids aren't spreading it to others, generally

I'm sure there are exceptions
As noted, IF the primary spread is cough/sneeze, this would make sense, but you could still get it from a shout etc., and we all cough at times.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 05, 2020, 10:05:28 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 05, 2020, 10:01:14 AM
As noted, IF the primary spread is cough/sneeze, this would make sense, but you could still get it from a shout etc., and we all cough at times.
Kids don't carry as much viral load as adults, and the spreading rate (and severity) seem to be heavily tied to viral load in the carrier, so it makes sense that children don't transmit as much or as often.  

Older kids in high school are more grown, so it also makes sense that transmission rates are higher in those age groups.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 05, 2020, 10:07:42 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 05, 2020, 09:26:05 AM
Does anyone even wear fur coats anymore? My wife tried to sell hers and she ended up donating them.
they don't have a PETA branch in Europe?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 05, 2020, 10:23:49 AM
They are a bit more common in France than here I think.  I'm sure there is a market for them, small but steady.

Most of us don't hobnob with the types who wear them I surmise.

Just up the street from us is an exclusive private club and I imagine the ladies there wear furs at times and big diamonds etc.  They don't accept new member applications.

It's an interesting place with some history.

https://www.drivingclub.org/

We walk by it nearly every day.  Our neighbor knows one member who said she'd take my wife there for lunch "sometime".

(https://i.imgur.com/9V0J5Q0.png)(https://i.imgur.com/qU0WKJn.png)


This is how the Old Rich in Atlanta ensure their kids meet - and then marry - the kids of other fat cats, plus they send their daiughters to Agnes Scott and sons to, well, somewhere else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 05, 2020, 10:34:14 AM
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/10/10/the-real-lessons-from-swedens-approach-to-covid-19?fsrc=scn/fb/te/bl/ed/landofthemaskfreethereallessonsfromswedensapproachtocovid19leaders&fbclid=IwAR3Rgmk29ZLII1KTJZXfId4GANh2XXWUSQA9__sdncBmODhhZee6upW--qU

The gist of the article if you can't read it is how Sweden can be used by "both sides", and the real answer there is somewhere in the middle.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 05, 2020, 11:16:14 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 05, 2020, 10:34:14 AM
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/10/10/the-real-lessons-from-swedens-approach-to-covid-19?fsrc=scn/fb/te/bl/ed/landofthemaskfreethereallessonsfromswedensapproachtocovid19leaders&fbclid=IwAR3Rgmk29ZLII1KTJZXfId4GANh2XXWUSQA9__sdncBmODhhZee6upW--qU

The gist of the article if you can't read it is how Sweden can be used by "both sides", and the real answer there is somewhere in the middle.
Good article. And yeah, Sweden tends to be used by "both sides":

The anti-lockdown side: "Look, Sweden didn't do anything, and they're doing fine! We should do nothing and just get to herd immunity like them! And I'm not going to participate in any damned contact tracing! The government doesn't need to know who I've been around! It's tyranny, man!"

Counterpoint: Sweden actually has done quite a bit, has had clear messaging from the government, has a very high-trust society, and somewhat unique demographics. And despite the claim they've done "nothing", their economy was hit extremely hard and people have had to dramatically change their behavior, which quite frankly is what the anti-lockdowners are arguing they shouldn't have to do. And they're not aiming for herd immunity, they're aiming for an appropriate balance between lockdown and commerce that allows people to still live while doing everything they can to contain spread where it occurs (robust testing and contact tracing).

The pro-lockdown side: "Sweden is doing horribly compared to their 'peers' and if you try to take their approach and do it in places with worse demographics, everyone will DIE! And by the way, by you even mentioning Sweden I know you're an anti-science MAGA-er and therefore I can dismiss anything you say without engaging at all."

Counterpoint: No, there are certainly lessons to be taken from Sweden. Sweden has somewhat successfully managed this virus, trying to find a middle ground between doing nothing and locking everything down. Every other country that has tried locking down is ending up with quarantine fatigue, so we should look at some of the things Sweden has been doing, which are mostly [as far as I can tell] evidence-based for how we can move forward with a partially-open economy that balances commerce and safety. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 05, 2020, 12:11:36 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 05, 2020, 10:05:28 AM
Kids don't carry as much viral load as adults, 
I've heard the exact opposite from some credible source I've forgotten.  Cool.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 05, 2020, 12:17:07 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 05, 2020, 10:23:49 AM

Just up the street from us is an exclusive private club and  They don't accept new member applications.

It's an interesting place with some history.


The Illuminati,I knew it - you're with the Bilderbergs,"ya just up the street",card carrying,ring wearing secret handshake bastage,Say hello to the Rothchilds during hors d' oeuvres for me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 05, 2020, 12:18:09 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 05, 2020, 11:16:14 AM
Good article. And yeah, Sweden tends to be used by "both sides":

Counterpoint: Sweden actually has done quite a bit, has had clear messaging from the government, has a very high-trust society, and somewhat unique demographics. The U.S. wouldn't know "high-trust society" if it hit us going 90mph down the highway.

And despite the claim they've done "nothing", their economy was hit extremely hard and people have had to dramatically change their behavior, which quite frankly is what the anti-lockdowners are arguing they shouldn't have to do. Shhh, this ruins the narrative.

And they're not aiming for herd immunity, they're aiming for an appropriate balance between lockdown and commerce that allows people to still live while doing everything they can to contain spread where it occurs (robust testing and contact tracing).  This is far too prudent for the U.S. 

And on fatigue....I understand frivolous fatigue about BS that doesn't matter.  I reeeeeally don't understand fatigue about something that's killing X% of people.  I'd probably have that fatigue if I was 20 years old or something, but no, I'm not getting fatigue while my restrained actions and lifestyle are keeping me safe.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 05, 2020, 12:22:23 PM

And we're all rested and redeemed knowing this
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 05, 2020, 02:01:06 PM
We are going about our business, as careful as we can.

Going out to eat tonight. 

6200 new Florida cases today. 100K tests. Almost 1500 in Dade, 800 in Broward, 450 in Palm Beach.

6.2% positive. It's still out there. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: DevilFroggy on November 05, 2020, 02:05:17 PM
I literally have not eaten at a restaurant/bar/pub since mid March. Takeout/delivery and a lot more cooking at home for me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 05, 2020, 02:38:31 PM
Things are pretty darn safe to eat out now, especially outside. Many restaurants have gone to great lengths and expense to stay open., including air handlers, shields, PPE, etc., so people can eat inside.

There is no proof that indoor dining has led to any big spread. Indoor bars, however, well, that's for kiddies and that's who is spreading the most.

It's a balance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 05, 2020, 02:40:54 PM
A lot of risks in life kill X% of the people each year, and it's human nature to ignore or minimize those risks, because folks get TIRED (fatigued) of being lectured all the time.  They can hole up for a while and then they decide they want to be out and about because this thing isn't killing very many young people.

And humans also confuse anecdotes with statistics.  "I don't know anyone who got it, so it's safe to party hearty."
 
We all rationalize our behaviors, it's not unique somehow to Americans.  The Europeans are protesting against the lockdown in numbers, and protesting itself is likely to spread this.

Our neighbor the physicist is just back from Turkey and doing a two week self quarantine voluntarily.  We'll be taking him dinner and groceries from time to time as we did last time.  Of course, he's pretty bright, Harvard PhD in theoretical physics and all that.  

We have 35,000 or so every year die in auto accidents.  It's accepted as part of life, folks do what they can to reduce the figure, and it has been cut almost in half.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 05, 2020, 03:35:28 PM
Currently doing a virtual conference. One presentation that is up now is the impact of COVID and this spring's stay-at-home orders. Should be interesting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 05, 2020, 03:37:23 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 05, 2020, 12:22:23 PM
And we're all rested and redeemed knowing this
I knew you loved me.:88:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 05, 2020, 03:42:05 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 05, 2020, 02:40:54 PM

We have 35,000 or so every year die in auto accidents.  It's accepted as part of life, folks do what they can to reduce the figure, and it has been cut almost in half.
I agree with much of your post, but this isn't a good citation.
A - cars were a paradigm shift in travel - they changed everything and added a massive plus when it came to speed/efficiency....a virus doesn't provide any good like that
B - eventually, it became untenable to live without a car (depending on where you live - so save the NYC or tiny town examples)......the only people (99%+) who don't have a car can't afford one

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 05, 2020, 03:51:16 PM
No analogy is perfect, but "we" collectively make choices individually (often) that may not be in our individual best interest.

Many of us run up credit card debt, or fail to save for retirement, or allow ourselves to become obese diabetic walking time bombs.

COVID fatigue I think is understandable even if logically it should not be how we view it.

It's like how George Best spent his fortune.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 05, 2020, 04:13:56 PM
And many of us bilk clients and investors out of millions and are on the lamb - hiding on media backwaters
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 05, 2020, 04:28:16 PM
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/05/917317541/clots-strokes-and-rashes-is-covid-19-a-disease-of-the-blood-vessels

Dexamethasone may be helping with this.  Remember the cytokine explosion theory?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 05, 2020, 04:43:38 PM
-Unemployment didn't have much effect on traffic volumes. Teleworking made a much bigger effect in the metro than it did outstate (45% decrease in Hennepin County alone, only 12% of workers based in downtown Mpls in February were still going after COVID started).

-Commercial truck traffic volumes came back with a vengeance and is running 10+% ahead of past years.

-Does short-term travel influence COVID? Yes, at least the county level. 

-Lot of noise in mobile device-based tracking. Generally, grocery and hardware stores lined up less with outbreaks. Higher number of long visits done indoors was a much tighter correlation. Long visits to bars were almost directly lined up with heavy caseloads. Visits to hardware stores went through the roof after SAH, but dont line up due to short visits. This data doesn't, and shouldn't, replace the loop detectors in the freeway. 

Several very interesting observations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 05, 2020, 05:32:20 PM
https://www.statnews.com/2020/10/29/it-may-be-time-to-reset-expectations-on-when-well-get-a-covid-19-vaccine/?fbclid=IwAR1gs7ia9A4jEocWb-jNAhd_NUUNwXSxLvV0uLbgMlZmHLTlM4Fe0B6r8DA
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on November 05, 2020, 06:26:33 PM
US- 102 International airports and nearly 850 million passengers who travel by air each year.

Sweden- 3 international airports and roughly 11 million passengers who travel by air each year.

Idk. The comparisons for me and virus containment kinda end there.  The US has a travel situation unlike any country on the planet.  It’s just so unique I have trouble comparing virus containment to any other country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 05, 2020, 06:43:40 PM
Last year, Atlanta airport "serviced" 105 million people, in and out or changing.

But once the infection gets started in your country, it spreads even if nobody else arrives.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 05, 2020, 07:06:36 PM
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/05/931844298/first-covid-19-vaccine-doses-to-go-to-health-workers-say-cdc-advisers

Health care workers will almost certainly get the first doses of COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. when one is approved, according to Dr. José Romero, head of the committee that develops evidence-based immunization guidelines for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

That's a decision based on the science of what will quell the pandemic fastest. "It's not just the doctors and nurses that are interacting with patients, but also the support personnel that help," Romero said, in an interview with NPR Thursday. "It could include those persons that are delivering food, or maintenance people that could come in contact with them," so they can protect themselves and patients from the virus, and stay healthy to keep the U.S. health care system running.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on November 05, 2020, 07:43:16 PM
Undoubtedly death is a necessary consequence of life, and we accept all kinds of risks, but I, too, am a little thrown by the car analogy. It's true that in the U.S. we accept a high death toll on our roads as the cost of doing business--more so than in at least some other countries. However, after decades of declining auto-related deaths, the last decade has seen them heading back up. I'm sure the COVID shut downs will reduce the numbers for 2020, but heading into 2020, we were seeing large increases.

Effectively, all of the safety improvements we've made to our cars seem to have been overcome by two things: (1) the size of our vehicles has gone way up, leading to more deaths; and (2) we are more distracted in our cars (I wonder why? /sarcasm). 

This is one of the reasons I'm really looking forward to autonomous vehicles: they will almost certainly be much safer because they will take human distraction and error out of the equation.

I'm sure we've talked about this on other threads.

Anyway, I'm probably not replying in any meaningful way to any of these comments. But I'm not cool with traffic fatalities.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 05, 2020, 10:13:31 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on November 05, 2020, 07:43:16 PM
Undoubtedly death is a necessary consequence of life, and we accept all kinds of risks, but I, too, am a little thrown by the car analogy. It's true that in the U.S. we accept a high death toll on our roads as the cost of doing business--more so than in at least some other countries. However, after decades of declining auto-related deaths, the last decade has seen them heading back up. I'm sure the COVID shut downs will reduce the numbers for 2020, but heading into 2020, we were seeing large increases.

Effectively, all of the safety improvements we've made to our cars seem to have been overcome by two things: (1) the size of our vehicles has gone way up, leading to more deaths; and (2) we are more distracted in our cars (I wonder why? /sarcasm).

This is one of the reasons I'm really looking forward to autonomous vehicles: they will almost certainly be much safer because they will take human distraction and error out of the equation.

I'm sure we've talked about this on other threads.

Anyway, I'm probably not replying in any meaningful way to any of these comments. But I'm not cool with traffic fatalities.
Well said.

The delay in autonomous vehicles, I'm afraid, has and will continue to smack into a wall of ignorance.  The masses need someone to blame for a traffic death, and that means they'll accept 100 human-error deaths over 1 heartless machine-caused death.

All the while ignoring that the number of dead people would immediately decrease by about 80% or more.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 05, 2020, 10:16:11 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 05, 2020, 05:32:20 PM
https://www.statnews.com/2020/10/29/it-may-be-time-to-reset-expectations-on-when-well-get-a-covid-19-vaccine/?fbclid=IwAR1gs7ia9A4jEocWb-jNAhd_NUUNwXSxLvV0uLbgMlZmHLTlM4Fe0B6r8DA
The only people needing to reset vaccine expectations were the ones who thought science could magically fast-forward one. 

:-[
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 05, 2020, 10:33:55 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 05, 2020, 05:32:20 PM
https://www.statnews.com/2020/10/29/it-may-be-time-to-reset-expectations-on-when-well-get-a-covid-19-vaccine/?fbclid=IwAR1gs7ia9A4jEocWb-jNAhd_NUUNwXSxLvV0uLbgMlZmHLTlM4Fe0B6r8DA
Nothing really new here

Possible January for certain groups and 2 or 3 months later (5 on the outside) for the rest of us

This is pretty much what the current phase 3 developers have been saying

Its important to mention that all 3 phase 3 vaccines are still in the running which is great news
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 06, 2020, 05:55:21 AM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on November 05, 2020, 07:43:16 PM
Effectively, all of the safety improvements we've made to our cars seem to have been overcome by two things: (1) the size of our vehicles has gone way up, leading to more deaths; and (2) we are more distracted in our cars (I wonder why? /sarcasm).
Who's WE?


Victims of the "i" world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 06, 2020, 05:56:26 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 05, 2020, 10:16:11 PM
The only people needing to reset vaccine expectations were the ones who thought science could magically fast-forward one.

:-[
It is being fast-forwarded. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 06, 2020, 07:08:03 AM
Right, that's not nonsensical at all.  Oh, oh...tell us the name of the plan again?!?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 06, 2020, 07:14:25 AM
Still waiting to know your plan.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 06, 2020, 07:27:47 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 06, 2020, 07:14:25 AM
Still waiting to know your plan.
Don't hold your breath,JOB would already have packed his bags
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 06, 2020, 08:27:39 AM
Yeah, I've always been expecting spring 2021 for wholesale distribution of a vaccine. I don't need (or really want) to be near the head of the line for it, but I'll gladly roll up my sleeve when it's my turn.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 06, 2020, 08:28:19 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 05, 2020, 10:16:11 PM
The only people needing to reset vaccine expectations were the ones who thought science could magically fast-forward one.

:-[
Who specifically were those people?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 06, 2020, 08:29:20 AM
I'll do it as soon as it's available to me. Front line first, of course, and then engineers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 06, 2020, 08:30:49 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on November 06, 2020, 08:27:39 AM
Yeah, I've always been expecting spring 2021 for wholesale distribution of a vaccine. I don't need (or really want) to be near the head of the line for it, but I'll gladly roll up my sleeve when it's my turn.
That is a rational expectation based on what is known and reported.  We can only go on that (not what politicians claim of course).

Limited distribution to selected groups of course can be expected eearlier.

The auto death "analogy" was merely to note how "we" accept certain levels of risk because we judge them to be small and the benefit significant.  We all do that daily.

I can't imagine trying to live a near zero risk life.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 06, 2020, 08:36:43 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 06, 2020, 08:30:49 AM
That is a rational expectation based on what is known and reported.  We can only go on that (not what politicians claim of course).

Limited distribution to selected groups of course can be expected eearlier.

The auto death "analogy" was merely to note how "we" accept certain levels of risk because we judge them to be small and the benefit significant.  We all do that daily.

I can't imagine trying to live a near zero risk life.
You'd need a basement.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 06, 2020, 08:37:00 AM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on November 05, 2020, 07:43:16 PM
This is one of the reasons I'm really looking forward to autonomous vehicles: they will almost certainly be much safer because they will take human distraction and error out of the equation.

I'm sure we've talked about this on other threads.

Anyway, I'm probably not replying in any meaningful way to any of these comments. But I'm not cool with traffic fatalities.
The problem with connected and autonomous vehicles is that society has been waiting on them for 50 years.

No one is cool with traffic fatalities. That's why, at least in Minnesota, you're seeing our agency be very aggressive with passive safety improvements (many more roundabouts at problem intersections, Michigan J-turns, cable median barrier on divided highways, guardrail endcaps, breakaway sign posts, etc). Not only are these effective, they're relatively inexpensive compared with grade separations. I was only half joking when I say that traffic engineers have to try and fix stupid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 06, 2020, 08:47:24 AM
If I as an individual feel I can dine out with minimal risk (and I have made that judgment), I don't view that as really different from deciding the risk of an auto accident is worth driving my car (and being careful and prudent).  Driving a car is pretty safe and the benefits are enormous for most.

The benefits in dining out are considerably less (at the moment our kitchen is not really in order due to the continuing tile job), but they are to me nonzero.

The benefit in going to the park are pretty large for me, and I think the risks are very low.

We took that three night trip to NC in part to get an idea how good or bad it was to be in motels.  I think the risks were low to moderate.  We have 3 million active cases, call it one percent of the population, and I'd guess at least half or more are isolated.  And there likely are 3x that many who don't know they have it.  That is the risk, I gather, if they are contagious.  I presume asymptomatic means no more than normal coughing/sneezing.

So, what are the risks in being out and about of:

1.  Coming into close contact with a contagious person?  Depending on where you live, it could be fairly high.
2.  Having them expectorate near you?  Fairly low.
3.  Doing that near you indoors with a mask on or at least covering their mouth?  Fairly low.
4.  Catching it from them?  Pretty low.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 06, 2020, 08:48:38 AM
Incidentally, I got the rather lengthy sheet of COVID protocols from baseball fantasy camp.  It's extensive, probably overkill, but that is probably needed.  I found an issue with the testing precamp and am discussing that now, and I worry about false positives, we have 80 campers, so the odds are good that happens.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 06, 2020, 08:53:02 AM
With the reno, there have been anywhere from 1 to 7 guys in my house almost every day we've been here.

Not much I could do about that, unless I didn't want a kitchen and baths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 06, 2020, 08:57:51 AM
Our guys are good about masks, even when they are out on the deck and we're not.

And they distance also, so I think it's OK.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 06, 2020, 09:01:45 AM
I just avoid them and let them do their thing. When they leave, the wipes come out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 06, 2020, 09:21:20 AM
We're down to one guy now finishing up, a few more tiles to lay, then the liner, the grout, then cleaning up.  He's Brazilian, which the wife likes.

Hopefully, their two day job they started Monday will be complete today.

I think they underbid, but they are doing a very thorough job.  You never know around here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 06, 2020, 09:23:46 AM
Yep, we're at the finish line too. A guy here, a guy there, then a deep clean crew.

It will be a relief when it's over. I'm tired of managing it, frankly. I've already knocked half off the GC's take.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 06, 2020, 10:16:36 AM
The problem with the driving analogy stems from a flaw in thinking about this that goes all the way back to OAM's post in response to me re: quarantine fatigue:

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 05, 2020, 12:18:09 PM
And on fatigue....I understand frivolous fatigue about BS that doesn't matter.  I reeeeeally don't understand fatigue about something that's killing X% of people.  I'd probably have that fatigue if I was 20 years old or something, but no, I'm not getting fatigue while my restrained actions and lifestyle are keeping me safe. 
While this will sound strange coming from a libertarian and hardcore individualist, if we ALL think about our own individual risk of getting COVID rather than thinking about R0, we'll each individually take actions which result in increasing R0. 

The better analogy with driving would be saying I feel perfectly safe accepting the risk to myself of driving while heavily buzzed on tequila, zonked out on some painkillers, on zero sleep and while texting, at night, with my headlights off. *I* have deemed that an acceptable risk, so why should someone tell me I can't? 

The reason is simple... Even if you will get home safely 95 times out of 100 doing that, you create an unacceptable risk to others through your actions. Your bad decision isn't only risk to yourself; it's risk to everyone else. Even granny at home, if you drive through her living room wall because you passed out behind the wheel. 

This virus spreads easily enough that the Great Barrington Declaration and the goal of "Focused Protection" is impossible. There are too many vulnerable people and it's frankly impossible for them to self-quarantine severely enough to keep them safe if the virus is just ripping through society with the healthy. But if we keep R0 down, those people can take reasonable precautions and their likelihood of coming in contact with the virus is much lower.

We're not going back on lockdown. People will not accept it. But people need to think less about their individual risk and more about whether their actions are good or bad for R0. 

That's where quarantine fatigue becomes an example of cognitive dissonance. We're thinking about our individual risk when the policies in place to reduce the spread are about collective R0. People get fatigued when they are told to deny themselves gratification to protect others, because they don't think their own risk is high. 

The message has to be, as it actually is in Sweden: "We're going to remain open but we're relying on ALL of you to be vigilant and contain the spread. You're adults, so act like it."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 06, 2020, 11:33:33 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 06, 2020, 08:47:24 AM

So, what are the risks in being out and about of:

1.  Coming into close contact with a contagious person?  Depending on where you live, it could be fairly high.
2.  Having them expectorate near you?  Fairly low.
3.  Doing that near you indoors with a mask on or at least covering their mouth?  Fairly low.
4.  Catching it from them?  Pretty low.


risks are low, but the number of cases is going up
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 06, 2020, 11:43:51 AM
Yeah, individual risk versus collective "public health" risk.

My chances of dying in a car are remote, but we spend resources and money trying to reduce the numbers.  Getting a DL in Europe apparently is arduous.

My driving test way back was silly.  And the blood alcohol limit there is 0.04%.

My practical flight test was somewhat simplified I thought, I had prepared for something more challenging.

Autonomous cars would come faster if we had sensible Federal regulations, which is a hope I do not have.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 06, 2020, 01:13:50 PM
https://www.kare11.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/live-updates-covid-19-cases-in-minnesota/89-8c08e7e3-87d9-4399-bc5e-e1a09f0ea2c8?fbclid=IwAR3CkyURMBGZ2pvd8rEnDLSIbaD4It30uzwqeghdMHFbUTtVJ77QXCjVvRI

Ugly, ugly numbers today. Minnesota crushes their one-day-old record of positives (5454 today, 3956 yesterday), hospitalizations, and fatalities. 12% of yesterday's tests came back hot. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 06, 2020, 01:29:36 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 06, 2020, 08:30:49 AM


I can't imagine trying to live a near zero risk life.
Why does the discussion go to the opposite end?  No one is suggesting this as a goal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 06, 2020, 01:31:51 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 06, 2020, 10:16:36 AM


The message has to be, as it actually is in Sweden: "We're going to remain open but we're relying on ALL of you to be vigilant and contain the spread. You're adults, so act like it."
The American masses can be called a lot of things, but "adults" isn't one of them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 06, 2020, 01:37:55 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 06, 2020, 01:31:51 PM
The American masses can be called a lot of things, but "adults" isn't one of them.
You need a smaller paint brush. Get out and travel a little maybe?


Anyway, 82K tests in FL yesterday. 6.3% positive.

Illinois and Wisconsin are hot messes. Illinois Governor talking about a lockdown again, which, beyond what he already put in place, means a stay at home order. I don't think that's gonna fly.


Coronavirus in Illinois updates: 10,376 new known COVID-19 cases — another record daily high — and 49 additional deaths reported

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on November 06, 2020, 01:42:27 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 06, 2020, 10:16:36 AM
The problem with the driving analogy stems from a flaw in thinking about this that goes all the way back to OAM's post in response to me re: quarantine fatigue:
While this will sound strange coming from a libertarian and hardcore individualist, if we ALL think about our own individual risk of getting COVID rather than thinking about R0, we'll each individually take actions which result in increasing R0.


For someone who claims to be a libertarian, you have espouse over and over again some very anti-libertarian positions. I am tempted to post "The Princess Bride" meme. :)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 06, 2020, 01:52:55 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on November 06, 2020, 01:42:27 PM
For someone who claims to be a libertarian, you have espouse over and over again some very anti-libertarian positions. I am tempted to post "The Princess Bride" meme. :)



If you're suggesting that bwar comes off way more "LIB" than "ERTARIAN"... well, that would be political and completely off-limits on this thread.



:))
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 06, 2020, 01:57:46 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 06, 2020, 01:29:36 PM
Why does the discussion go to the opposite end?  No one is suggesting this as a goal.
It's a hypothetical.  We each assess risk:reward daily.  There is no alternative I can imagine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 06, 2020, 02:15:26 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 06, 2020, 01:29:36 PM
Why does the discussion go to the opposite end?  No one is suggesting this as a goal.
Because you have to date not seemed to offer any idea for what we should be doing other than endless lockdowns. And when I suggested the American people were having quarantine fatigue, your response was basically "suck it up and quarantine, because this thing kills X% of people". 

The only thing that I can take from that is that you believe we shouldn't be doing in-person schooling, that we shouldn't have reopened commerce, that we certainly shouldn't be playing football, etc. You haven't said that specifically, but your consistent message is to criticize anything other than lockdowns, so it's hard to draw any other conclusion.

Quote from: Riffraft on November 06, 2020, 01:42:27 PM
For someone who claims to be a libertarian, you have espouse over and over again some very anti-libertarian positions. I am tempted to post "The Princess Bride" meme. :)
I'll accept that criticism. I have a couple of policy points where I stray from the pure libertarian answer, and if this were a political blog, I would be happy to discuss in detail how and why I do so.

As it relates to COVID, however, I believe that the initial lockdowns were necessary. Effectively, knowing the American people, if we had taken a message like Sweden of "we're not shutting down but here's what you should personally do" I don't believe it would have been even remotely effective. The lockdowns were a mental reset of "hey, this thing is real and you'd better f$&%#^g take it seriously, citizens!"

Where we completely lost the narrative was when it was clear that lockdowns weren't going to eradicate the virus and we needed to reopen, we didn't cultivate a message of how to live in the new normal. We kept some of these lockdowns too long and with too little education on how to reopen safely. 

As such, everyone has quarantine fatigue and many have given up on trying to prevent spread because it's just been too long and they don't feel personal risk. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 06, 2020, 02:50:16 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 06, 2020, 01:37:55 PM
You need a smaller paint brush. Get out and travel a little maybe?
Tell me how much I've traveled already.  I'm dying to know!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 06, 2020, 02:59:29 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 06, 2020, 02:15:26 PM
Because you have to date not seemed to offer any idea for what we should be doing other than endless lockdowns. And when I suggested the American people were having quarantine fatigue, your response was basically "suck it up and quarantine, because this thing kills X% of people".

The only thing that I can take from that is that you believe we shouldn't be doing in-person schooling, that we shouldn't have reopened commerce, that we certainly shouldn't be playing football, etc. You haven't said that specifically, but your consistent message is to criticize anything other than lockdowns, so it's hard to draw any other conclusion.
I'm also told I shouldn't get political, which to properly address what we should (and should in the past) do requires discussion that includes political crap.  This is taboo in the echo chamber here.

Anyway, what's the best way to get out of a quagmire?  Not to get in one, of course.  But we're here, you might say, it does no good to look at the past.  Great.  

I don't believe I've suggested the answer is endless lockdowns.  I know my situation and what's prudent for me.  Answers?  Anytime I approach an answer, everyone bitches about how ______ I am and fails to address the actual idea.  They just disparage me (not that I care).  

As I attempt to address points on what I would do, it just winds up sounding like I'm shitting on Trump over and over, even while not even dwelling on him, specifically.  You and 847 call for my input, but it's just to dismiss it.  I'll post something substantive when I get home.

Here's one idea - instead of trickle-down economics, how about trickle up pandemic?  The most wealthy end up holding the bill on the societal pause.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 06, 2020, 03:07:26 PM
There are no good answers short of an effective vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 06, 2020, 03:14:10 PM
So there are no good answers.  

This is the way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 06, 2020, 03:20:06 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 06, 2020, 03:07:26 PM
There are no good answers short of an effective vaccine.
It's a pandemic. By nature we're choosing the "least bad" options from a shitty menu. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 06, 2020, 03:41:04 PM
Iowa Gov Kim Reynolds held a press conference last Thursday ( a week ago) urging people to do the right thing to stop the spiking cases of the virus.

A good solid message.....


Today's news ..........

Woodbury County confirmed its 101st death Wednesday and its 102nd death Thursday. Both deaths were men between the ages of 61 and 80.

The Northwest Iowa county also added 110 new cases of COVID-19 Thursday, according to Siouxland District Health Department. As of 4 p.m., Woodbury County had 8,076 total cases of the virus, according to state statistics. It's 14-day COVID-19 positivity rate stood at 20.7 percent.


Sioux County had the fifth highest positivity rate in the state Thursday at 27.1 percent, followed by O'Brien County in sixth, 26.4 percent; Plymouth County in seventh, 26.3; and Ida County in ninth, 24.7 percent.

On Thursday, a total of 74 people with COVID-19 were hospitalized at either MercyOne Siouxland Medical Center or UnityPoint Health -- St. Luke's, according to district health, an increase of nine from Sunday. Of those patients, 55 were hospitalized because they had COVID-19. Another 19 people in the hospital have the virus, but are hospitalized for other reasons. Of the total, 41 are Woodbury County residents.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 06, 2020, 03:50:40 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 06, 2020, 02:50:16 PM
Tell me how much I've traveled already.  I'm dying to know!
Not enough, it seems. You think almost none of us (the masses) in the US are adults? Seriously?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 06, 2020, 03:57:15 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 06, 2020, 03:20:06 PM
It's a pandemic. By nature we're choosing the "least bad" options from a shitty menu.

(https://content.thriveglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/strangegame.png?w=1550)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 06, 2020, 04:00:33 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 06, 2020, 03:57:15 PM
(https://content.thriveglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/strangegame.png?w=1550)
Han COVID shot first. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 06, 2020, 04:41:00 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/u6OV9XJ.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 06, 2020, 05:33:23 PM
Sweden?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 06, 2020, 05:38:57 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 06, 2020, 05:33:23 PM
Sweden?
US
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 06, 2020, 06:45:58 PM
Was thinking about something... It's been silly of me to try to look at southern and northern US states to try to tease out whether there is a significant weather component to this thing...

...when I could just look at the big countries in South America, who are coming out of winter and into summer.



Pretty universally, these countries have seen peaks during winter and it's been decreasing since. 

There could be other explanations, of course... Maybe they put in strong mitigation efforts because of the severity of their peaks and THAT, rather than weather, has a much bigger effect. 

But it's one more piece of evidence that there might be a significant weather component here.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 06, 2020, 06:53:59 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 06, 2020, 02:59:29 PM
I'm also told I shouldn't get political, which to properly address what we should (and should in the past) do requires discussion that includes political crap.  This is taboo in the echo chamber here.

Anyway, what's the best way to get out of a quagmire?  Not to get in one, of course.  But we're here, you might say, it does no good to look at the past.  Great. 

I don't believe I've suggested the answer is endless lockdowns.  I know my situation and what's prudent for me.  Answers?  Anytime I approach an answer, everyone bitches about how ______ I am and fails to address the actual idea.  They just disparage me (not that I care). 

As I attempt to address points on what I would do, it just winds up sounding like I'm shitting on Trump over and over, even while not even dwelling on him, specifically.  You and 847 call for my input, but it's just to dismiss it.  I'll post something substantive when I get home.

Here's one idea - instead of trickle-down economics, how about trickle up pandemic?  The most wealthy end up holding the bill on the societal pause. 
I'm actually legitimately interested in your response.

Please note, and I offer this as constructive criticism rather than an attack, but you sometimes have a tendency to speak in half sentences and resort to hyperbole and leave a lot to the reader to interpret what you "meant". 

So I'm actually looking for something substantive. If you were the national COVID Czar, what policy proposals would you be pushing?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 06, 2020, 07:08:17 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 06, 2020, 03:50:40 PM
Not enough, it seems. You think almost none of us (the masses) in the US are adults? Seriously?
You're like a prodigy at twisting words.  I say the masses in the US wouldn't be accurately described as adults, and you pull the phrase "almost none of us" out of your ass.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 06, 2020, 07:27:04 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 06, 2020, 07:08:17 PM
You're like a prodigy at twisting words.  I say the masses in the US wouldn't be accurately described as adults, and you pull the phrase "almost none of us" out of your ass.
Following your repeated insightful forays into pretty much all matters
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on November 06, 2020, 07:28:39 PM
In retrospect it feels like the best strategy would have been to be much looser in the summer while signaling restrictions in flu season. A tough thing to recommend, especially as the virus was peaking in many states over the summer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 06, 2020, 08:10:26 PM
All of the above is obviously assuming that Americans either can't or won't behave responsibly when their actions may potentially harm others.  If wearing a mask kept the wearer safe, I promise the spread of the virus would be MUCH lower.  We're the best country in the world because of our selfishness?  Ignorance?  Freedom!  Yes, freedom.  The freedom to stupid, no matter the cost.


^See, I think I did a good job of leaving this type of stuff out of my lengthy post.  :72:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 06, 2020, 08:41:12 PM
Your lengthy post got deleted, as I'm sure you knew it would.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 06, 2020, 09:17:58 PM
bwarb was interested
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 06, 2020, 11:02:16 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 06, 2020, 08:41:12 PM
Your lengthy post got deleted, as I'm sure you knew it would.


I honestly hadn't considered that.  Fucking hell.  

ECHOOOOOOO CHAMBERRRRRRRRR
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 06, 2020, 11:03:04 PM
I guess I was too distracted, trying to be as honest as possible with my post.  Amazing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 06, 2020, 11:13:36 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 06, 2020, 11:02:16 PM
I honestly hadn't considered that.  Fucking hell. 

ECHOOOOOOO CHAMBERRRRRRRRR
Your constant chanting of the mantra "echo chamber" makes no sense.  There are plenty of people on this thread, sharing their opinions from widely differing perspectives.  SFbadger and bwar are constantly expressing thoughts and ideas that don't line up with what HB or MrN, for example, believe.  And those are all different from how badgerfan or CD choose to opine.

The difference is they are able to do it without talking politics, at least on this thread.  You aren't.

You're not the only one, of course, lh320 has expressed his unhappiness with me several times because I've deleted his posts as well.  And beyond you two there are others, still.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 06, 2020, 11:19:04 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 06, 2020, 11:03:04 PM
I guess I was too distracted, trying to be as honest as possible with my post.  Amazing.
I read your post before I deleted it.  I could tell you were being earnest.  The problem was, this wasn't the thread for it.

If you have ideas on where to go from here, great.  If all you can do is focus on how we got here, which for you, inevitably leads to a political discussion, then take it somewhere else.  You've already been told many times that this isn't something that's going to be accepted on this thread.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 07, 2020, 04:02:41 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 06, 2020, 11:13:36 PM
Your constant chanting of the mantra "echo chamber" makes no sense.  There are plenty of people on this thread, sharing their opinions from widely differing perspectives.  SFbadger and bwar are constantly expressing thoughts and ideas that don't line up with what HB or MrN, for example, believe.  And those are all different from how badgerfan or CD choose to opine.

The difference is they are able to do it without talking politics, at least on this thread.  You aren't.

You're not the only one, of course, lh320 has expressed his unhappiness with me several times because I've deleted his posts as well.  And beyond you two there are others, still.




We are many
Our army is great

I want to point out that Ive been very good lately

so there

Youve got as much chance of changing OAM's stripes as UT does of beating WV later today

oh well we can always hope
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 07, 2020, 06:46:12 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 06, 2020, 07:08:17 PM
You're like a prodigy at twisting words.  I say the masses in the US wouldn't be accurately described as adults, and you pull the phrase "almost none of us" out of your ass.
I pulled it out of your ass. It was gross.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 07, 2020, 07:26:29 AM
I don't know what to "believe" or "think" about COVID, really, other than the obvious.  I'm still trying to understand it.

All contributive posts here help.

Georgia has trended from about 1200 reported cases per day to about 1800, the high reached in June was around 3800.

Hospitalizations MAY have started back up, too early to tell.  While we tend to focus on the US or our state for obvious reasons, I'd note again that Europe is moving into a catastrophe zone.  France reported over 60,000 new cases yesterday, Italy nearly 38,000 cases.

To the extent the US has managed this poorly, Europe is doing far worse, and of course now had to shut down a lot of their economies.  And this could be headed our way.
If the US heats up like Europe has, there will be a major push for early release of a vaccine or a shut down, or both.

My best guess is this Spanish variant is more contagious as the weather has not yet changed that much in most of France.  And they are still going to school.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on November 07, 2020, 07:26:53 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 07, 2020, 04:02:41 AM


Youve got as much chance of changing OAM's stripes as UT does of beating WV later today


Then OAM is MUCH more open minded than I gave him credit for.  WVU makes it 3 in a row in Austin.

Let’s Go Mountaineers!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 07, 2020, 07:57:32 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 06, 2020, 11:03:04 PM
I guess I was too distracted, trying to be as honest as possible with my post.  Amazing.
was a solid post
lots of typing
seemed honest and well thought out

actually too bad it wasn't "moved" to a different thread
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 07, 2020, 07:59:08 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 07, 2020, 07:26:29 AM
My best guess is this Spanish variant is more contagious as the weather has not yet changed that much in most of France.  And they are still going to school.
the weather has been mild so far
I don't think that is what is driving the numbers, at least, yet
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 07, 2020, 08:01:48 AM
Quote from: Kris60 on November 07, 2020, 07:26:53 AM
Then OAM is MUCH more open minded than I gave him credit for.  WVU makes it 3 in a row in Austin.

Let’s Go Mountaineers!
Im surprised this game is even being played as we had over 9,200 positive cases yesterday
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on November 07, 2020, 08:22:26 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 07, 2020, 07:59:08 AM
the weather has been mild so far
I don't think that is what is driving the numbers, at least, yet
As far as I can tell seasonality of the cold and flu are poorly understood.  We can say with a lot of confidence that they are seasonal, but not much confidence as to what factors make it so.  Seems the same  with the COVID.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 07, 2020, 08:33:52 AM
I'd guess that the seasonality of viruses that spread in similar ways, would be similar in general.  We've never studied the spread of the flu or cold in any great detail, but we're studying the spread of the novel coronavirus across the entire glove in an unprecedented manner in the history of this planet.  I think we're going to learn a lot about ALL of them, through studying the current pandemic.

And I think we're going to find that the seasonality of the novel coronavirus is closely linked to large numbers of people intermingling indoors.  In warmer zones, this happens during the summer.  In colder climes, this happens during the winter.

Maybe. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 07, 2020, 08:37:42 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 07, 2020, 06:46:12 AM
I pulled it out of your ass. It was gross.
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 07, 2020, 08:59:24 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 07, 2020, 07:57:32 AM
was a solid post
lots of typing
seemed honest and well thought out

actually too bad it wasn't "moved" to a different thread
Honest?,perhaps.Accurate?(https://i.imgur.com/esTfVEk.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 07, 2020, 09:00:46 AM
I'm going to be on Tito's and Budweiser soon!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 07, 2020, 09:08:46 AM
Fore!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 07, 2020, 09:19:15 AM
Who here expects the US to get as bad or worse than Europe in a week or so?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 07, 2020, 09:21:08 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 04, 2020, 11:22:34 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/zGFQnEu.png)

That is deaths, you can see the parallel situation pretty clearly, offset by about two weeks.  The US has not YET started back up that hill thought it is trending a bit.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 07, 2020, 09:59:20 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 07, 2020, 09:19:15 AM
Who here expects the US to get as bad or worse than Europe in a week or so?
I don't expect we will get as bad. The Northern states, perhaps, but they mostly have Lockdown Governors (LG's).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 07, 2020, 10:38:09 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 07, 2020, 09:19:15 AM
Who here expects the US to get as bad or worse than Europe in a week or so?
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 07, 2020, 09:59:20 AM
I don't expect we will get as bad. The Northern states, perhaps, but they mostly have Lockdown Governors (LG's).
It's getting bad. Cases over 130K yesterday, with the 7-day MA moving above 100K for the first time. Deaths trending up more sharply now, 7-day MA up ~30% from the steady state in the low 700s to 946 yesterday.

Southermost states of FL/GA/AL/TX/AZ/NM/CA all trending up in cases, some more sharply than others, but only MS/LA along the southern edge of the US aren't showing a trend up. As the weather continues to cool, even those southern states will likely move up more sharply like the northern ones.

And as stated, I think with people having quarantine fatigue, I'm suspecting people to be close to "back to normal" when it comes to the Thanksgiving holiday, and that may push it up sharply. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 07, 2020, 10:48:15 AM
My folks have decided to host Thanksgiving, for the immediate family anyway.  The plan is to do it outdoors, they have a large patio and backyard.  Hopefully the weather holds up and we're able to keep it all outside.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 07, 2020, 10:52:24 AM
The weather here is very pleasant, we dined outside last night.  I don't notice any change in habits by people we encounter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on November 07, 2020, 10:53:34 AM
Watching New York because it hit there first in the US.  Their cases have gone up slowly, but not at panic levels, at least not yet.  Ohio has been going up sharply.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 07, 2020, 11:01:22 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on November 07, 2020, 10:53:34 AM
Watching New York because it hit there first in the US.  Their cases have gone up slowly, but not at panic levels, at least not yet.  Ohio has been going up sharply.
I have no reason to believe it won't strike NY sharply again, once the cold weather really sets in, accompanied by the holidays.  I have a friend in Manhattan that tells me quarantine fatigue is setting in, even for those folks that witnessed first-hand the death and devastation from the first wave.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 07, 2020, 11:16:50 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 07, 2020, 10:48:15 AM
My folks have decided to host Thanksgiving, for the immediate family anyway.  The plan is to do it outdoors, they have a large patio and backyard.  Hopefully the weather holds up and we're able to keep it all outside.

jackets and sweatshirts are comfortable

you won't need mittens and parkas
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 07, 2020, 11:18:22 AM
I don't know what to expect looking at Europe

I sure as hell hope it doesn't get that bad, but if folks try to be normal with thangsgiving and Xmas with larger gatherings indoors, it won't be good
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 07, 2020, 11:22:08 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 07, 2020, 11:16:50 AM
jackets and sweatshirts are comfortable

you won't need mittens and parkas
Yeah, average high for that week in Austin in November is 67-70 for us, so it's typically okay.  Last year was a little cooler as I recall, year before that we might have hit 80 which is not uncommon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on November 07, 2020, 11:32:30 PM
Today is my last day of isolation. Never any symptoms following my + test. My wife, who is 7-years younger than me, told me the spouse of one of her high school classmates died from COVID-19. She thinks that woman's spouse was older than her, but you don't get many trophy wife hunters more successful than me, so I am thinking he couldn't have been that much older.
I just want to say . . . I am damn lucky. On top of this death my wife reported, I had two clients in the past 10-days whose spouses died from it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 08, 2020, 12:09:59 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on November 07, 2020, 11:32:30 PM
Today is my last day of isolation. Never any symptoms following my + test. My wife, who is 7-years younger than me, told me the spouse of one of her high school classmates died from COVID-19. She thinks that woman's spouse was older than her, but you don't get many trophy wife hunters more successful than me, so I am thinking he couldn't have been that much older.
I just want to say . . . I am damn lucky. On top of this death my wife reported, I had two clients in the past 10-days whose spouses died from it.
so are you going to get an antibody test
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on November 08, 2020, 12:43:30 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 08, 2020, 12:09:59 AM
so are you going to get an antibody test
No. I am returning to work. I am going to www.quill.com for my sole practitioner law office, and printing a no facemask no entry sign - this office supply company has free downloads. I paid the secretary half time to not come in. It has been an economic loser for me the past 2-weeks. I was lucky I didn't spread it to anyone who I had close contact with, including my wife. I do not want to go through this calamity again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 08, 2020, 06:27:18 AM
Glad you came out OK.

Please get the antibody test.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 08, 2020, 09:36:49 AM
Europe is still getting worse, and fast.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 08, 2020, 09:49:09 AM
For the world:

ACTIVE CASES
13,511,894
Currently Infected Patients
13,420,029 (99%)
in Mild Condition

91,865 (1%)
Serious or Critical




Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 08, 2020, 09:59:13 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 08, 2020, 09:36:49 AM
Europe is still getting worse, and fast.
Yeah, it's sad and disheartening, I know quite a few folks that live over there and I feel for them.  They really did think they were past the worst of it.

Here's hoping we don't get a another wave as bad as their second wave, but honestly I'm starting to believe we will.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 08, 2020, 10:00:01 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 08, 2020, 06:27:18 AM
Glad you came out OK.

Please get the antibody test.
What's the point of the antibody test when he already had a positive PCR? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 08, 2020, 10:07:23 AM
https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/which-test-is-best-for-covid-19-2020081020734

Apparently no one knows the false positive rates on these tests?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 08, 2020, 10:08:07 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 08, 2020, 10:00:01 AM
What's the point of the antibody test when he already had a positive PCR?

Its just that its something I would want to know and maybe scientists might also want to know it

the reverse is if you dont have antibodies then theres a good chance it was a false positive and again I would want to know that

so I didnt get a false feeling of security
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 08, 2020, 10:58:24 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 08, 2020, 10:00:01 AM
What's the point of the antibody test when he already had a positive PCR?

#1, to make sure his test was truly positive.

#2, to see what levels he has in his body.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 08, 2020, 11:43:07 AM
I guess I should not be surprised at the % positive increase in FL.

The state-run sites are now only testing people with symptoms. You can still go to a private testing site, but most people don't go if they don't have symptoms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 08, 2020, 02:56:14 PM
@Cincydawg (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=870) ,

I know you don't give much credence to 60 minutes, but..........

they're interviewing the US Military regarding distributing the virus vaccine tonight  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 08, 2020, 03:18:14 PM
If 60 M is doing "news" they probably are OK, maybe, but when they concoct stories and then fit whatever to what they want, it's terrible.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 08, 2020, 04:16:34 PM
well, obviously I don't know what they are up to tonight, but I'm curious 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 08, 2020, 06:29:43 PM
I find it better, in general, to read rather than listen.  I can check what was asserted without confusion (usually).  I can see if others are saying something different, providing another perspective.  And I hate commercials.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 08, 2020, 07:28:34 PM
well, I was busy watching the cowboys suck
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 08, 2020, 07:48:52 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 08, 2020, 07:28:34 PM
well, I was busy watching the cowboys suck
Played a lot better than the last couple of weeks, and against much better competition.

But a loss is a loss and sucking sucks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 08, 2020, 08:19:44 PM
Garrett  Gilbert didn't suck
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 08, 2020, 10:29:39 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 08, 2020, 08:19:44 PM
Garrett  Gilbert didn't suck
No he didnt


I was pleasantly surprised
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on November 08, 2020, 11:08:42 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 08, 2020, 10:58:24 AM
#1, to make sure his test was truly positive.

#2, to see what levels he has in his body.
It would be interesting but I don't know where to go to get one, or the cost thereof. I will continue wearing a facemask when I have a client, but now I will insist the client have a facemask. I am not going to be less cautious. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 09, 2020, 07:51:35 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on November 08, 2020, 11:08:42 PM
It would be interesting but I don't know where to go to get one, or the cost thereof. I will continue wearing a facemask when I have a client, but now I will insist the client have a facemask. I am not going to be less cautious.
There is no cost.

Call your doctor and ask him where to go. These tests are readily available.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 09, 2020, 08:34:19 AM
https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/09/covid-19-vaccine-from-pfizer-and-biontech-is-strongly-effective-early-data-from-large-trial-indicate/

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 09, 2020, 08:44:32 AM
good news on a monday morning
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 09, 2020, 08:46:58 AM
Indeed.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 09, 2020, 09:00:49 AM
The stock market CAN be a harbinger of good or bad news, and I'd note it is WAY up this morning preopening, DJIA futures up 6.21% right now.

I think that is on vaccine news coupled with the election appearing to bring divided government.

Fascinating.  I'm rather worried about the economic impact of the wide spread EU shut down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 09, 2020, 09:07:45 AM
107K tests. 6641 positive. Florida continues to hover a little above that 6% mark.

There have been 582 positives in my town since this thing started. There are about 24K people here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 09, 2020, 09:39:21 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 09, 2020, 08:44:32 AM
good news on a monday morning
Agreed. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 09, 2020, 10:08:42 AM
What is the positive rate for the US right now? Europe too. I admit to not knowing where to find that data (and I have not tried).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 09, 2020, 10:10:11 AM
Excellent news, indeed.

And even though this one reportedly needs very low refrigeration and two doses, it also strongly implies that the other vaccines are having success in their trials.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 09, 2020, 10:20:48 AM
Moderna aint doing bad either


https://www.jpost.com/health-science/moderna-on-track-to-report-late-stage-covid-19-vaccine-data-next-month-648475
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 09, 2020, 10:25:00 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 09, 2020, 10:08:42 AM
What is the positive rate for the US right now? Europe too. I admit to not knowing where to find that data (and I have not tried).
Friday was 12% in Minnesota. This stat is a hard one to find on a state-by-state basis. If I get time today I'll try to find a chart that has daily numbers of tests run. 

Also, one of my co-workers managed to test positive, and his GF gave birth to their kid last week. He didn't mention how bad it was. That was a hell of a week for him.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 09, 2020, 10:56:05 AM
Iowa is at 20.1% positive cases (past 14 day average)

my county of about 100,000 - Woodbury County: 1,970 active cases; 6,371 recovered; 8,443 total; 102 deaths; 21.4% positivity rate
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on November 09, 2020, 11:17:40 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 08, 2020, 08:19:44 PM
Garrett  Gilbert didn't suck

Shush, Fickled Browns fan will start complaining that we didn't keep him and get rid of Baker. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 09, 2020, 11:18:37 AM
Georgia is at 7%, but that figure has a lot of variables in it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 09, 2020, 01:34:07 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/D3RluBf.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 09, 2020, 03:20:35 PM
Good news. You'll have to think that at least 1 of the group will be successful enough to get through this, yeah?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 09, 2020, 03:27:51 PM
Pfizer emergency use late this month?

wow
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 09, 2020, 03:32:05 PM
File for emergency  use, not get it.  Might get it in December.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 10, 2020, 08:33:35 AM
Many have said the - Prez amongst them that covid would start to disappear after the elections.Coincidentally 3-4 days after Pfizer & BioNTech make a joint announcemnet come up with a supposedly effective vaccine...Hmm :017:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 10, 2020, 08:39:01 AM
I don't view this news as some shock, though it's shaded to the positive from what I was guessing.  I've posted often that vaccine news was promising, this is really promising, I think.  The possibility of having 25 million vaccinated by end of this year is ahead of what I expected by a month or so (hoped).

Getting half the country vaccinated midyear seems possible, especially as there are other companies with their own variations.  So, it's very good news, I think, but not something out of the blue.

Interestingly, stocks are rotating from tech back to mainstream companies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 10, 2020, 08:48:57 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/us-allows-emergency-use-of-eli-lillys-covid-antibody-therapy.html

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 10, 2020, 08:52:17 AM
Emergency use for patients in dire need is more readily granted than for treatments of otherwise well individuals of course.

Russia claims to have three vaccines now apparently.  I'm not really sanguine about having them though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 10, 2020, 08:59:55 AM
I'm sure that Russia has three variations of something they will inject people with.  That's about all I have to say about that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 10, 2020, 09:02:31 AM
Will Russia ever change in that respect?  Janky nuclear plants, janky military, janky everything.  Like do something well, already!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 10, 2020, 09:22:08 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 10, 2020, 08:39:01 AM
I don't view this news as some shock, 
Shock maybe not,suspect - damn straight
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 10, 2020, 09:22:29 AM
About the only thing that has changed about Russia is that defenstration has become a more popular way of disposing of one's enemies. Or it was a popular tactic during the KGB era and I was too young to know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 10, 2020, 09:26:46 AM
The Russians historically are very good at chess, ballet, opera, symphonic compositions, and secret police.  The chess thing appears to have abated with falling interest, but they likely are still very good (elite).  The wife was very interested in seeing ballet in St. Petersburg this year but that was cancelled of course.

I think the individual Russian soldier can be admired for his or her ability to withstand privation no western army would accept.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 10, 2020, 09:31:09 AM
Russia and China (and Iran and North Korea) are not to be trusted. 

With anything.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 10, 2020, 09:31:14 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 10, 2020, 09:26:46 AM

I think the individual Russian soldier can be admired for his or her ability to withstand privation no western army would accept.
That was certainly the case 80 yrs ago and maybe again if earthly inhabitants don't get their collective selves together
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 10, 2020, 09:57:26 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 10, 2020, 09:26:46 AM
The Russians historically are very good at chess, ballet, opera, symphonic compositions, and secret police.  The chess thing appears to have abated with falling interest, but they likely are still very good (elite).  The wife was very interested in seeing ballet in St. Petersburg this year but that was cancelled of course.

I think the individual Russian soldier can be admired for his or her ability to withstand privation no western army would accept.


Dont forget about the Boris Badenov School of Espionage
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 10, 2020, 11:04:51 AM
Illinois likely looking at another stay at home order.


Statewide, the test positivity rate — the share of positive tests out of all tests take in a 24-hour period — was at a seven-day average of 12.4% as of Sunday, up from 8.2% when the state began reporting the figure on Oct. 29.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 10, 2020, 11:38:19 AM
hah, Iowa is at 20%

Governor asking folks nicely to wear masks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 10, 2020, 12:03:24 PM
Minnesota trying not to go all the way back to full stay-at-home orders, but Gov. Walz is making some moves in that direction. Bars and restaurants close at 10 PM, no counter seating or service, no standing games (darts, pool, and the like), and limits on indoor gatherings to 50 on Black Friday and 25 on December 11.

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/11/10/walz-next-steps-in-minn-covid19-fight?fbclid=IwAR3c7rBK8bvJPD2NF5GwO_SoKl9O7RCwn7jkJLySZgaoIbAkOD3coOMOLHI

Waiting for today's batch of numbers. Presser at 2 with Gov. Walz.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 10, 2020, 12:24:32 PM
I watched as France gradually limited closing times on bars and bistros and asked the wife why that would help, and it didn't, so now they are into a significant shut down, again.  Europe is nearing hospital capacity again.

I think at times politicians want to be seen as being responsive but half measures do harm without apparently doing much good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 10, 2020, 12:53:57 PM
I'm surprised that a full stay-at-home hasn't come yet. Mayo banned all visitors from their facilities except in cases of childbirth or imminent death. It's also not a surprise that this COVID surge is two weeks after the first significant snowfall.

At least Walz is doing something. Gov. Doug Burgum up in North Dakota, at the behest of the state's hospitals, staff that test positive but are asymptomatic should be allowed to work. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 10, 2020, 01:04:26 PM
California now starting to show the same uptrend seen elsewhere in cases. A few weeks ago, there was sort of a step change from flat in the low-3K 7-day MA range to flat in the low-4K daily range. Now it's turned upwards and our 7-day MA case rate is showing a clean curve upwards and we're almost to 6K/day.

Nationally, the 7-day MA on deaths just topped 1,000 again. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 10, 2020, 01:05:39 PM
BTW I don't know what lockdowns will even do at this point to stop the spread. People are just going to go to gatherings at each others' houses. 

I see this thing getting a lot worse as we approach Christmas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 10, 2020, 01:09:07 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 10, 2020, 09:02:31 AM
Will Russia ever change in that respect?  Janky nuclear plants, janky military, janky everything.  Like do something well, already!
MDOT-- STOP INTERJECTING COMPLETELY UNNECESSARY POLITICS INTO THE CORONAVIRUS DISCUSSION

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 10, 2020, 01:10:21 PM
Georgia is still holding its own, some upward trend, but nothing YET dramatic.  My physical therapist told me she is booked solid now.  She was musing on what that means for COVID, she said most of it was NOT post-op (like me).  Restaurants are mostly doing pretty well from what I can see with some exceptions (usually ones that opened this year).  I really don't understand how this can be so bad in some states and relatively "OK" in others.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 10, 2020, 01:17:38 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 10, 2020, 01:10:21 PM
Georgia is still holding its own, some upward trend, but nothing YET dramatic.  My physical therapist told me she is booked solid now.  She was musing on what that means for COVID, she said most of it was NOT post-op (like me).  Restaurants are mostly doing pretty well from what I can see with some exceptions (usually ones that opened this year).  I really don't understand how this can be so bad in some states and relatively "OK" in others.
Trying to understand how much of it is weather, and how much is behavior, and how much of it is behavior that is being forced by weather...

I.e. California is a bit of a weird case because the weather in the Bay Area or Sacramento is significantly cooler than down here. Are the curves accelerating faster there? 

Or are the curves going up just as quickly down here as well because SoCal is full of selfish assholes who are just disregarding what they "should" be doing behavior-wise because of quarantine fatigue?

I think overall people here in California are being smart regarding masks, etc. But I know I've seen a LOT more people outside my household, sans-mask, and occasionally indoors, than I did 2-3 months ago. I'm taking risks that I wouldn't have back then. And I don't think I'm unique in that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 10, 2020, 01:26:20 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 10, 2020, 09:31:09 AM
Russia and China (and Iran and North Korea) are not to be trusted.

With anything.
MDOT--

CUT THE POLITICAL CRAP ON THIS THREAD.

NOW.

OR YOU'LL BE TAKING A BREAK FROM THE BOARD
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 10, 2020, 01:29:23 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 10, 2020, 01:17:38 PM
I think overall people here in California are being smart regarding masks, etc. But I know I've seen a LOT more people outside my household, sans-mask, and occasionally indoors, than I did 2-3 months ago. I'm taking risks that I wouldn't have back then. And I don't think I'm unique in that.
This is why it's worse than ever.  People aren't even being as careful as they were in April/May.  I'm not sure I understand why it's so hard to be prudent for more than 5 minutes.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 10, 2020, 01:33:42 PM
people are fatigued 

they've decided it's not worth it

because it's not killing enough folks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 10, 2020, 01:37:39 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 10, 2020, 01:17:38 PM
Trying to understand how much of it is weather, and how much is behavior, and how much of it is behavior that is being forced by weather...

I.e. California is a bit of a weird case because the weather in the Bay Area or Sacramento is significantly cooler than down here. Are the curves accelerating faster there?

Or are the curves going up just as quickly down here as well because SoCal is full of selfish assholes who are just disregarding what they "should" be doing behavior-wise because of quarantine fatigue?

I think overall people here in California are being smart regarding masks, etc. But I know I've seen a LOT more people outside my household, sans-mask, and occasionally indoors, than I did 2-3 months ago. I'm taking risks that I wouldn't have back then. And I don't think I'm unique in that.
Where do we find comprehensive demographic data? Is there such a place?

I know most states are keeping some form, like Wisconsin. There, 65% of total cases are below 50 y/o. Ages 20-29 makes up the highest percentage, at 21%. In FL, 25-34 makes up the highest, at 18%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 10, 2020, 01:44:51 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 10, 2020, 01:33:42 PM
people are fatigued

they've decided it's not worth it

because it's not killing enough folks
I wonder how many enough is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 10, 2020, 01:46:04 PM
we might find out in Iowa

20% positive, and has been for a few weeks

although nearly half of all deaths are from long term care facilities
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 10, 2020, 01:48:50 PM
Hospitalizations trending down in Florida, even as cases trend up. Deaths are dropping down nicely too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 10, 2020, 02:31:36 PM
I don't normally think of Georgia residents as being unusually prudent and sensible overall.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 10, 2020, 03:27:02 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 10, 2020, 01:48:50 PM
Hospitalizations trending down in Florida, even as cases trend up. Deaths are dropping down nicely too.
Cases were trending down from mid-July until early October.

Deaths lag, and they were trending down from say early- to mid-Aug until now. 

The case rise in Florida so far hasn't been a "spike", it's just starting to slowly trend up. But it's definitely trending up.

So... Get back to me in 2 weeks and let me know what's trending in hospitalizations and deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 10, 2020, 03:31:07 PM
See attached picture.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 10, 2020, 03:38:25 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 10, 2020, 01:29:23 PM
This is why it's worse than ever.  People aren't even being as careful as they were in April/May.  I'm not sure I understand why it's so hard to be prudent for more than 5 minutes. 
We're a social species. We have family. We have friends. Going 6-7 or more months without having that contact is emotionally difficult. And while Zoom calls and texts/phone is one thing, they're not really a substitute for actual human contact. 

All the simple stuff about physical distancing, wearing your masks, etc when out in public is EASY. Nobody IMHO is really all that worried about mask fatigue. It's not hard, just annoying. 

But that lack of seeing family and friends is something people are having trouble with, and so they're starting to do that. And as has been pointed out, a lot of the spread is from small gatherings, from family/friends rather than "the public". And for many, there are things like weddings, births, funerals, major birthdays, etc, and people won't [or can't] put those major life events on hold forever, so people consider it important enough to attend despite the risk. 

I doubt these gatherings were all that big of a deal during the summer BBQ holiday season, because I'm sure a lot of those gatherings were outside, in the sunlight. Coming up here in a few weeks is going to be the big one, and late December there will be another, because there will be large family get-togethers in cold climates and inside. 

People are willing to wear their mask to the grocery store to buy the turkey, but they're not willing to not see their family to celebrate Thanksgiving.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 10, 2020, 03:41:19 PM
Florida death information is attached.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 10, 2020, 03:50:04 PM
Understood, Badge. 

My prediction--which I hope will be wrong--is that the hospitalization and deaths will curve back up with cases. 

Your first photo showed ED visits with COVID-like illness to be flat to a very miniscule rise. 

I think your second photo may be, much like the CDC, not quite as up to date as some of the other trackers. 

For example, if you compare the numbers in your graph to this: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

They look rather similar, up until the last two weeks. If they're waiting for confirmed coroner's reports before attributing the deaths, they may not be catching everything.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 10, 2020, 04:00:14 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 10, 2020, 03:38:25 PM
We're a social species. We have family. We have friends. Going 6-7 or more months without having that contact is emotionally difficult. And while Zoom calls and texts/phone is one thing, they're not really a substitute for actual human contact.

All the simple stuff about physical distancing, wearing your masks, etc when out in public is EASY. Nobody IMHO is really all that worried about mask fatigue. It's not hard, just annoying.

But that lack of seeing family and friends is something people are having trouble with, and so they're starting to do that. And as has been pointed out, a lot of the spread is from small gatherings, from family/friends rather than "the public". And for many, there are things like weddings, births, funerals, major birthdays, etc, and people won't [or can't] put those major life events on hold forever, so people consider it important enough to attend despite the risk.

I doubt these gatherings were all that big of a deal during the summer BBQ holiday season, because I'm sure a lot of those gatherings were outside, in the sunlight. Coming up here in a few weeks is going to be the big one, and late December there will be another, because there will be large family get-togethers in cold climates and inside.

People are willing to wear their mask to the grocery store to buy the turkey, but they're not willing to not see their family to celebrate Thanksgiving. 



Exactly, all of this.  Quarantining/lockdowns/social avoidance simply aren't a sustainable solution.  I'm actually surprised that 8-9 months into this, there are still a lot of people staying pretty strict about it.

But it was never a solution that could last forever, or even a full year.  It's just not realistic. Which is why we're seeing, what we're seeing.

The most at-risk people need to stay in strict quarantine-- unless they're tired of it, which is understandable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 10, 2020, 04:00:41 PM
Supposedly Orange County might end up back in the most restrictive tier by potentially next week, and after 2 weeks there could go back to shutting down the schools.

Yet so far the schools, to my knowledge, haven't even been vectors of spread. One of our school districts has a tracker and they've got over 18,000 students and staff who are doing in-person learning across the entire district. There have only been 28 cases. 

Kids need school. Parents need their kids to be in school. If this was causing huge hot spots of virus, I'd understand it. But there's no evidence of that here.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 10, 2020, 04:01:59 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 10, 2020, 04:00:41 PM
Supposedly Orange County might end up back in the most restrictive tier by potentially next week, and after 2 weeks there could go back to shutting down the schools.

Yet so far the schools, to my knowledge, haven't even been vectors of spread. One of our school districts has a tracker and they've got over 18,000 students and staff who are doing in-person learning across the entire district. There have only been 28 cases.

Kids need school. Parents need their kids to be in school. If this was causing huge hot spots of virus, I'd understand it. But there's no evidence of that here.


None here either.  Or most other places on the planet.  French kids are still going to school despite their soaring cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 10, 2020, 04:06:16 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 10, 2020, 03:50:04 PM
Understood, Badge.

My prediction--which I hope will be wrong--is that the hospitalization and deaths will curve back up with cases.

Your first photo showed ED visits with COVID-like illness to be flat to a very miniscule rise.

I think your second photo may be, much like the CDC, not quite as up to date as some of the other trackers.

For example, if you compare the numbers in your graph to this: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

They look rather similar, up until the last two weeks. If they're waiting for confirmed coroner's reports before attributing the deaths, they may not be catching everything.
That is correct, but going back a while things stayed flat even with the increased cases. And I'm looking at the age groupings and mortality rates too. Most of the new cases are in younger people. I think what I'm getting at is that most of the people who were going to die from this, may have died already. At least that is my hope.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 10, 2020, 05:07:44 PM
Gov. Kim Reynolds issues mask mandate for gatherings above 25 people indoors, 100 outdoors

According to an update from the Iowa Supreme Court, all jury trials that do not have a jury sworn in by November 16 and are already scheduled, will be suspended until after February 1, 2021.

4,439  new infections over the last 24-hours, another record-breaking number for new infections in the state.

There are currently 1,135 people hospitalized due to coronavirus in the state, up by 101 people since yesterday.

As of now, 1,049,806 individuals in Iowa have been tested for COVID infection.  total population 3.155 million
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 10, 2020, 08:11:03 PM
With support from the Office of Research and Economic Development’s COVID-19 Rapid Response Grant Program, Nebraska's Shi-Hua Xiang is in the early stages of developing a bacterial delivery system for a COVID-19 vaccine that would be delivered directly to the respiratory tract as a nasal spray.

His approach has the potential to involve a little less pain and anxiety, enhanced immunity against COVID-19 and a smaller price tag. ›› http://ow.ly/276h50Cbk6B

Nasal spray could mean needle-free COVID-19 vaccine

https://news.unl.edu/newsrooms/today/article/nasal-spray-could-mean-needle-free-covid-19-vaccine/ (https://news.unl.edu/newsrooms/today/article/nasal-spray-could-mean-needle-free-covid-19-vaccine/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 11, 2020, 03:56:15 AM
France MAY (emphasis) have peaked already and started down.  It's too early of course to say they have.

That would be interesting if this continues and isn't a temporary blip.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 11, 2020, 08:25:31 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 11, 2020, 03:56:15 AM
France MAY (emphasis) have peaked already and started down.  It's too early of course to say they have.

That would be interesting if this continues and isn't a temporary blip.


What makes you write this? How are deaths doing there and the rest of Europe?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 11, 2020, 11:44:28 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 11, 2020, 08:25:31 AM
What makes you write this? How are deaths doing there and the rest of Europe?
I'm looking at newly reported cases, as deaths is a lag.  France reported 22 K new cases yesterday, which is well off recent 50-70K cites.

I've seen several articles that hospital usage in a lot of places is maxxed out and they are shipping patients to other locations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 11, 2020, 11:58:08 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 11, 2020, 08:25:31 AM
What makes you write this? How are deaths doing there and the rest of Europe?
Deaths have been rising significantly. But as CDawg mentions, they lag. So if France actually HAS peaked in cases, we would still expect deaths to rise for a few weeks before trending back down. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

If you look at the 7-day MA curves, cases started rising steadily around late August, and then around the beginning of Oct the cases curve makes a pretty strong turn northward.

Likewise, the 7-day MA for deaths starts showing a trend of a rise in mid-late Sep, and starts turning up strongly around the 3rd/4th week of October. 

So it fits the basic pattern we see elsewhere. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 11, 2020, 02:58:48 PM
FL: 73,420 tests, with 5,719 positives. 7.8%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on November 12, 2020, 12:45:07 AM
There is so much local spread in Delaware County, Iowa. I see very few people, and yet the people I see are telling me of its impact on them and their families. Sickness is prevalent; dead family members I am told about. It is spreading like wildfire. I saw only one person in the grocery today without a mask, and she was directly in front of me in line socializing with the checker. 
My wife pointed to the obituary of the spouse of one of her classmates. My wife is 7-years younger than me, and the obituary was for a guy 1-year older than me. 
It's nothing to smile about when you are maskless and chatting up a storm with the checker in the grocery. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 12, 2020, 06:23:02 AM
All our stores I've been in have a plexiglas barrier between checker and customer, so that helps some I imagine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 12, 2020, 07:03:49 AM
Same. Everyone wears masks too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 12, 2020, 07:06:53 AM
Yup, same here.

But, I don't believe stores are much of a threat for spread, anyway.  People just aren't spending enough time in close proximity breathing on one another.  

Unless they're spending 20 minutes gabbing with a checker.  That could do it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 12, 2020, 07:16:31 AM
I wouldn't say everyone, but it's a high percentage around here, and curiously, the city has one of the lowest reported rates of infection in the state per capita.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 12, 2020, 08:43:40 AM
Definitely everyone here, at least inside businesses and public buildings. We do have state and city mask mandates in place.  It's been a long time since the last time I saw someone without a mask inside, it was probably May.

Outdoors is entirely different, and of course there's no mandate to wear masks outdoors unless you're in close proximity to others.  And since large gatherings of any kind are still banned, being in close proximity to others, indoors or out, is uncommon.

We have a popular and very busy running trail around the lake in downtown Austin, I suspect that's a place where enough people are outdoors but tightly packed, that you would be required by mandate to wear a mask.

I simply choose to run out here in the 'burbs, where it's easy to keep my distance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 12, 2020, 08:45:39 AM
people need to stay home

distance is the key

no exposure is the best way
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 12, 2020, 08:46:37 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 12, 2020, 08:45:39 AM
people need to stay home

distance is the key

no exposure is the best way
Says the guy who goes to the bar and restaurants almost daily... ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 12, 2020, 08:48:31 AM
yup, I was at the bar last night, no mask

but, I'm not worried about getting the virus.  Well, not much.  I'd rather not get it.

If I had symptoms I'd certainly quarantine.  I don't want to spread it either
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 12, 2020, 09:14:29 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 12, 2020, 08:45:39 AM
people need to stay home
So selling the clubs?No stopping for Schooners & Runzas?Cool
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 12, 2020, 09:49:04 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 12, 2020, 09:14:29 AM
So selling the clubs?No stopping for Schooners & Runzas?Cool
time to break out the shark water
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 12, 2020, 09:51:14 AM
Fearless already found that as he was typing evidently
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 12, 2020, 09:59:51 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 12, 2020, 09:49:04 AM
time to break out the shark water
We're gonna have to break out a double batch next year, assuming our livers can handle it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 12, 2020, 11:34:22 AM
that's a large assumption
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 12, 2020, 11:37:02 AM
In cities worldwide, coronavirus outbreaks have been linked to restaurants, cafes and gyms. Now, a new model using mobile-phone data to map people’s movements suggests that these venues could account for most COVID-19 infections in US cities.

The model, published in Nature today, also reveals how reducing occupancy in venues can significantly cut the number of infections.

The model “has concrete pointers as to what may be cost-effective measures to contain the spread of the disease, while at the same time, limiting the damage to the economy”, says Thiemo Fetzer, an economist at the University of Warwick in Coventry. “This is the policy sweet spot.”


https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03140-4 (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03140-4)

The mobility data also suggest why people from poorer neighbourhoods are more likely to get COVID-19: because they are less able to work from home, and the stores they visit for essential supplies are often more crowded than in other areas. The average grocery store in poorer neighbourhoods had 59% more hourly visitors per square foot, and visitors stayed on average 17% longer than at stores outside those areas. Leskovec says that people living in these areas probably have limited options to visit less crowded stores, and as a result, a shopping trip is twice as risky as it is for someone from a wealthier area.

But Christopher Dye, an epidemiologist at the University of Oxford, says these mobility patterns need to be validated with real-world data. “It is an epidemiological hypothesis that remains to be tested. But it is a hypothesis that is well worth testing,” he says.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 12, 2020, 12:23:29 PM
My anecdotal, real-world data agree with the poverty thing, but it's not even grocery stores, it's mini-marts.  They don't have a car, they walk to the gas station and spend $15 on unhealthy food/drink that would have cost them $9 at a proper grocery store.  The mini-mart is tiny and has tons of people in-and-out, 24 hours a day.  Less area = lots of hands touching more of what's there.  So busy, there's a line, so they're in there long enough to catch it.

Now if they'd only provide boiled peanuts here, I could join in the fun!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 12, 2020, 01:24:15 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 12, 2020, 12:23:29 PM
My anecdotal, real-world data agree with the poverty thing, but it's not even grocery stores, it's mini-marts.  They don't have a car, they walk to the gas station and spend $15 on unhealthy food/drink that would have cost them $9 at a proper grocery store.  The mini-mart is tiny and has tons of people in-and-out, 24 hours a day.  Less area = lots of hands touching more of what's there.  So busy, there's a line, so they're in there long enough to catch it.

Now if they'd only provide boiled peanuts here, I could join in the fun!
My observation aligns to this. 

Including the boiled peanuts!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 12, 2020, 01:27:09 PM
It's expensive to be poor, and that is real.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 12, 2020, 01:27:36 PM
Reality often bites, but pretending it isn't reality bites worse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 12, 2020, 02:02:39 PM
Nothing but bad news from today's batch of numbers in MN.

https://twitter.com/dhmontgomery/status/1326935089951907841?s=20

15% positivity, new records in all categories.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on November 12, 2020, 02:03:52 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 12, 2020, 12:23:29 PM
My anecdotal, real-world data agree with the poverty thing, but it's not even grocery stores, it's mini-marts.  They don't have a car, they walk to the gas station and spend $15 on unhealthy food/drink that would have cost them $9 at a proper grocery store.  The mini-mart is tiny and has tons of people in-and-out, 24 hours a day.  Less area = lots of hands touching more of what's there.  So busy, there's a line, so they're in there long enough to catch it.

Now if they'd only provide boiled peanuts here, I could join in the fun!
If we are going anecdotal. I have been going to the circle k around the corner from my job every morning to get a pop.  I don't wear a mask, it can be crowded or it could be empty. So far, I have not caught nor have I spread COVID. I was tested 2 weeks ago for travel and it was negative
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 12, 2020, 02:04:57 PM
It looks to me as if Europe is HERE, and now.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/12/average-covid-cases-and-hospitalizations-rise-in-nearly-every-state-across-us.html

It’s not just cases that are rising. (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/11/us-prepares-for-worst-four-months-of-the-pandemic-as-it-stares-down-the-darkest-days-yet.html) The seven-day average of hospitalized Covid-19 patients is up by at least 5% in 46 states, according to data from the COVID Tracking Project (https://covidtracking.com/), which is run by journalists at The Atlantic. Across the country, there are more than 65,300 people currently hospitalized with Covid-19, more than at any other point in the pandemic.

“We’re piercing the previous records, and ICU admissions are going up quickly, as well, with 12,000 people in the ICUs,” former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb (https://www.cnbc.com/scott-gottlieb/) said Thursday on “Squawk Box (https://www.cnbc.com/squawk-box-us/).” “Hospitalizations right now are rising by about 1,600 people a day, but that’s going to continue to increase, as well.”

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 12, 2020, 02:08:43 PM
Yeah, Austin metro had been holding hospitalizations low despite increasing case numbers, but now the trend is going the wrong way.

I'm supposed to go to our friend's daughter's wedding next weekend, it's an outdoor venue but it's also going to be almost entirely people I don't know.  I'm feeling less comfortable about this now, than I was a couple months ago.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 12, 2020, 02:29:51 PM
I attended a wedding reception a few weeks ago...

showed up late, ate the meal, had a couple beers and left early

tried not to get too close to anyone
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 12, 2020, 02:43:59 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on November 12, 2020, 02:02:39 PM
Nothing but bad news from today's batch of numbers in MN.

https://twitter.com/dhmontgomery/status/1326935089951907841?s=20

15% positivity, new records in all categories.
this with a majority, especially in the cities, wearing masks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 12, 2020, 02:48:03 PM
Masks are an imperfect and partial "solution".
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 12, 2020, 03:06:43 PM
I agree, that's my point.

many folks think they are very safe if they and folks near them are wearing masks

I don't think so

I think the message should be to social distance, because masks are an imperfect and partial solution

but, that's not the message
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 12, 2020, 03:08:34 PM
The "message" gets garbled, often, and widely, sometimes for political reasons.

It seems logical to me to stay away from others when a respiratory virus is spreading and wear a mask as a last resort.

For me, it's habitual now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 12, 2020, 03:25:04 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 12, 2020, 11:37:02 AM
In cities worldwide, coronavirus outbreaks have been linked to restaurants, cafes and gyms. 
Good,so no Bars?Mr Beam's Elixir just might be working
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 12, 2020, 03:31:40 PM
75,557 tests
5,534 positive
7.3%

Florida continues to be OK compared to some. Hospitalizations continue to trend down, along with the average age for positive cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 12, 2020, 03:37:18 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 12, 2020, 02:29:51 PM
I attended a wedding reception a few weeks ago...

showed up late, ate the meal, had a couple beers and left early

tried not to get too close to anyone
Man your getting old,weddings were the best place to pick up weepy,forlorn,single,sentimental women....or so I've been told
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 12, 2020, 03:38:55 PM
I'm old enough that I no longer chase women

that's derned old
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 12, 2020, 04:45:40 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 12, 2020, 03:38:55 PM
I'm old enough that I no longer chase women
Well that's when they all get interested,the fact you ignore them comes off as confident and self assured.One just might snap you up before some Jezebel get her grubby mitts on you.Unless of course you've switched teams - not that there's anything wrong with that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 12, 2020, 05:28:27 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 12, 2020, 03:38:55 PM
I'm old enough that I no longer chase women

that's derned old
either that or they stopped chasing you
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 12, 2020, 06:18:25 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 12, 2020, 03:25:04 PM
Good,so no Bars?Mr Beam's Elixir just might be working
Mr. Beam's elixer may be working, but one reason why bars are being closed at 10 PM is that contact tracers, such as they are, keep coming up with late nights at crowded bars as a main transmission vector.

Also, high school sports schedules are being gutted right now. Many schools in the area have so many quarantines that they can't staff the building, and are going back to full distance learning. Other than one district, most are ending all sports seasons through the Christmas break. The one district (a large one in suburban MSP) that didn't caught so much heat from helicopter parents after cancelling that they had a special meeting to re-instate them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 12, 2020, 06:34:02 PM
One of the schools for my kids (the charter) just said today that if Orange County gets put back into the most restrictive tier, it does not mean they're forced back to distance learning. And that campus, despite having a couple of self-quarantines that I know of for possible exposure, has no confirmed cases at this time. 

I don't know what the public district will do if we go back into that tier.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 12, 2020, 06:39:17 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 12, 2020, 03:06:43 PM
I agree, that's my point.

many folks think they are very safe if they and folks near them are wearing masks

I don't think so

I think the message should be to social distance, because masks are an imperfect and partial solution

but, that's not the message
I personally think that when people are wearing masks it's pretty darn safe. 

The CDC just said that masks don't just protect bystanders from the wearer, but do offer some protection to the wearer from bystanders. 

But masks don't do squat if you take them off around your friends and [non-household] family because hey, they must be safe, right? 

Instead, we're talking about locking down restaurants again instead of telling people to go to restaurants only with members of their own household. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 12, 2020, 06:57:25 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 12, 2020, 06:39:17 PM
I personally think that when people are wearing masks it's pretty darn safe.

The CDC just said that masks don't just protect bystanders from the wearer, but do offer some protection to the wearer from bystanders.

But masks don't do squat if you take them off around your friends and [non-household] family because hey, they must be safe, right?

Instead, we're talking about locking down restaurants again instead of telling people to go to restaurants only with members of their own household.

I get what you're saying, and mostly agree, but you and I are coming at it from the perspective of married folks with kids.  Our only social life is to be around our spouses, and our kids.  So going to a restaurant with only our own household is natural and easy and the norm.

When unmarried folks without kids go to restaurants, they are-- nearly inevitably and almost by definition-- going there with people that are NOT members of their own household.  So to them, what you're suggesting, is absolutely zero social life.  And, that actually sort of worked for 6-8 months depending on where you live.  But at this point, you'd be telling them they're just not allowed to live a non-solitary life.  And after a half a year of doing largely that, it's just not something they're willing to continue doing.  And I can't blame them one bit.

What we're doing isn't working.  Blaming people for being selfish a-holes or whatever, isn't going to solve the problem.

It's time to actually start thinking about real solutions.  Living largely isolated lives isn't sustainable and therefore it's not a viable solution.

Time to think harder about what the actual threats are, and how to minimize them.  

I've already suggested mandating improved filtration and ventilation in inside locations.  It would be expensive for sure, but is it better than going out of business?  For a lot of companies, yes, definitely.  That's just one thing, but we need to stop thinking about this as a social issue because we can't possibly fix it that way.  We need to start applying our vast resources in equipment technology, and process flow knowledge, and other unexplored areas, to develop realistic solutions.

Because we can't fix the social ones.  It's not working.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 12, 2020, 07:06:23 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 12, 2020, 06:57:25 PM
I get what you're saying, and mostly agree, but you and I are coming at it from the perspective of married folks with kids.  Our only social life is to be around our spouses, and our kids.  So going to a restaurant with only our own household is natural and easy and the norm.

When unmarried folks without kids go to restaurants, they are-- nearly inevitably and almost by definition-- going there with people that are NOT members of their own household.  So to them, what you're suggesting, is absolutely zero social life.  And, that actually sort of worked for 6-8 months depending on where you live.  But at this point, you'd be telling them they're just not allowed to live a non-solitary life.  And after a half a year of doing largely that, it's just not something they're willing to continue doing.  And I can't blame them one bit.

What we're doing isn't working.  Blaming people for being selfish a-holes or whatever, isn't going to solve the problem.

It's time to actually start thinking about real solutions.  Living largely isolated lives isn't sustainable and therefore it's not a viable solution.

Time to think harder about what the actual threats are, and how to minimize them. 

I've already suggested mandating improved filtration and ventilation in inside locations.  It would be expensive for sure, but is it better than going out of business?  For a lot of companies, yes, definitely.  That's just one thing, but we need to stop thinking about this as a social issue because we can't possibly fix it that way.  We need to start applying our vast resources in equipment technology, and process flow knowledge, and other unexplored areas, to develop realistic solutions.

Because we can't fix the social ones.  It's not working.
Bear in mind, I'm only a married dude with kids 40% of the time. The rest, we're a childless couple with family and friends that we want to see lol.

I'm guilty. In the past several weeks I've seen my brother and his wife (outdoor restaurant), my in-laws (outdoor patio brewery), my brother and his family, with my kids (at their house, indoor/outdoor mix but mostly indoor), and I'm seeing my in-laws and their best friends Saturday (at the in-laws' house, probably mostly indoor).

Does that make me a selfish a-hole? I don't know. Probably.

But I think the entire message is wrong. The message SHOULD be shaming me for what I've done over the past couple of weeks and will continue doing over the next few weeks. The message SHOULD be shaming those who are going to have big Thanksgiving feasts.

But instead we're talking about shutting down restaurants.

We're going to screw the economy and it's not going to make a damn bit of difference to spread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 12, 2020, 07:19:29 PM
I like that the contract tracing is becoming a big deal

that can possibly stem the tide if used properly

may be our only hope
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 12, 2020, 07:47:04 PM
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fsiouxlandnews.com%2Fresources%2Fmedia%2F6e2ccefc-2f77-4756-b224-6724b3670d16-large16x9_Capture.PNG%3F1605208586907&hash=f73a07c3a51c268c0e8a6910a720c4c7)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 12, 2020, 07:48:31 PM
well, the coldest part of the country seems to be hot with cases
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 12, 2020, 08:19:21 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 12, 2020, 07:48:31 PM
well, the coldest part of the country seems to be hot with cases
yep and it switches in the summer

not much we can do about it but hunker down and wait for a vaccine and also hope for herd immunity
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 12, 2020, 08:21:05 PM
we're getting close to 10% of the total population of my county of known cases
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 12, 2020, 08:38:29 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 12, 2020, 06:34:02 PM
One of the schools for my kids (the charter) just said today that if Orange County gets put back into the most restrictive tier, it does not mean they're forced back to distance learning. And that campus, despite having a couple of self-quarantines that I know of for possible exposure, has no confirmed cases at this time.

I don't know what the public district will do if we go back into that tier.
A couple hours ago... "You're doing amazing, sweetie!" 

Now: We're canceling school tomorrow out of an abundance of caution and we'll let you know what happens next. 

FFS... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 12, 2020, 10:14:47 PM
Thus far during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, Sioux City has had more known cases of the virus per capita than any metro area, except Bismarck, North Dakota, according to a New York Times analysis.

The Times noted in a story published Thursday that although other places have had "bigger outbreaks, worse days and faster surges," few have experienced the "sustained pain" that the Sioux City metro has.

Nearly 9 percent of Siouxlanders have tested positive, according to the analysis.


On Thursday, Woodbury County, which had a 14-day COVID-19 positivity rate of 22.9 percent, added 136 new cases of the virus, according to Siouxland District Health Department. Its case total now stands at 8,824, according to state data. No additional deaths were reported in the county, where 105 total residents have succumbed to the virus.

A total of 89 people with COVID-19 were hospitalized at either MercyOne Medical Center or UnityPoint Health, according to the district health agency, an increase of nine from Wednesday. Of those patients, 63 were hospitalized because they had COVID-19. Another 26 people in the hospital have the virus, but are hospitalized for other reasons. Of the total, 48 are Woodbury County residents.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 12, 2020, 10:57:19 PM
hope

Can we stop with this word?  There are proactive actions we can do and avoid to actually help with this thing. 
I miss my friends.  We do a weekly Houseparty app thing, where we talk and catch up and drink and joke.  It's not ideal, but it checks a box.

I get take-out and wash my hands every time I get home from going out into the world.

I wear a mask at all times when I leave my apartment.

I still get gas using a chlorox wipe as a glove.

These measure help me avoid covid AND help those I interact with not get covid.  It's not 100%, but they're proactive acts that are logically prudent.  No, I don't understand fatigue from doing logically prudent acts.

Hope is not a strategy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 12, 2020, 11:02:05 PM
Let's blame the post-Thanksgiving explosion on the weather, too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 12, 2020, 11:23:46 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 12, 2020, 10:57:19 PM
hope

Can we stop with this word?  
NO!!! What do you think we're your students?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 12, 2020, 11:44:50 PM
I love being lectured by OAM

I live for your advice and guidance

Thank you oh mighty one
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 12, 2020, 11:48:17 PM
He lives in dread/envy that somebody/somewhere might just be enjoying themselves.A condition he finds unattainable
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 12, 2020, 11:51:57 PM
Haha, laugh at Debbie Downer.  Insult me, just never accept the message.

Here's what stubbornness and hope and ignorance have gotten us:
(https://i.imgur.com/PiTcsBo.jpg)

Going to hit a quarter-million deaths in the U.S. early next week.  
But, you know, keep your fingers crossed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 13, 2020, 12:01:13 AM
Talking about life in General Dweeb and we all have our stats so save dragging out your charts.They simply haven't been stacking corpses like corwood around here.But pull your strings they will.Numbers are and have been fudged to hell and back,I'll take the word of peope I know in the medical field than anonymous gnomes
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 13, 2020, 12:03:24 AM
And get back to me about the suicide rates because not everyone has a job in Government to fall back on  as their line of work is eliminated
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 13, 2020, 02:28:47 AM
Grrrr, name-calling!  

El Paso is exporting dead bodies.  Not in Ohio, but it would be the 2nd-largest city there, behind Columbus.  You talk about economics, but seem to think the anecdotal evidence in your personal sight-line is all the data you need.  

Call me some more names and look silly.  Meanwhile, 1,400 more people are going to die tomorrow (OR WILL THEY?!?).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 13, 2020, 07:03:22 AM
We are not closing the economy as a country. If individual states choose to do stay at home orders, fine. Just don't come looking for a bailout.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 13, 2020, 07:13:25 AM
I expect partial closures of certain things in a lot of states here now.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 13, 2020, 07:38:53 AM
As do I.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 13, 2020, 07:46:49 AM
https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-chicago-stay-home-lightfoot-20201112-kvlxvdam35f2bn47k5hzegxqte-story.html

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 13, 2020, 07:48:50 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/13/vaccine-could-add-1-percentage-point-to-us-gdp-in-2021-ubs-says.html

These financial "experts" of course predict contrary things all over the place, so I'm not saying this is at all likely, it could happen I suppose.  He's saying this will be over by June or July.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 13, 2020, 07:52:15 AM
Dr. Fauci also thinks it will be over by mid-2021. It freakin' better be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 13, 2020, 08:09:20 AM
I deleted a lot of political bullshit.

You're welcome.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on November 13, 2020, 08:10:13 AM
It's going to be a challenge to define when it is over.  While the vaccine will hopefully give short term immunity and help limit symptoms, the actual virus isn't going away and will probably be around forever.  Going to need some leadership on telling people what to expect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 13, 2020, 08:13:01 AM
Yup the virus will be around forever.  Eventually it will kill a lot fewer humans.

So we've got that going for us.  Which is nice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 13, 2020, 08:14:34 AM
I don't think it will be around forever. Once the vaccine is in place and gains a strong hold, this thing could be eradicated.

Much depends on the rest of the world here. We need to share whatever we come up with.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on November 13, 2020, 08:20:46 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 13, 2020, 08:14:34 AM
I don't think it will be around forever. Once the vaccine is in place and gains a strong hold, this thing could be eradicated.

Much depends on the rest of the world here. We need to share whatever we come up with.
I don't know that it's impossible, but would be quite challenging, and I don't know if it would be worth the effort.  Some strains of common cold  are thought to have started as similar pandemics.  If we want to eradicate it, probably looking at a lot longer period of restriction.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 13, 2020, 08:28:04 AM
We know of many coronaviruses that return year after year.  We know of many influenza viruses that return year after year.  I see no reason to think this will ever be eradicated.

I certainly hope it can be, but as I've been told over and over on this thread, hope is not a strategy.

And neither is asking humans to isolate from one another for a year or more.

Time to start being practical and realistic about how to handle this.  Time to start using our vast array of technological resources to our advantage.  Time to start using our tremendous knowledge of process improvement to our advantage.  Time to stop telling people they're not allowed to live their lives, and instead create ways to enable people to live their lives.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 13, 2020, 08:38:17 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 13, 2020, 08:09:20 AM
I deleted a lot of political bullshit.

You're welcome.


thanks

saved my scrolling wheel a few revolutions
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 13, 2020, 08:56:54 AM
One hope I have is that our scientists have learned a lot about coronavirus vaccine approaches.  The Pfizer approach is "simply" a specific RNA fragment.  I think that's pretty cool, presuming it works.  It does have some side effects apparently, folks can feel "down" for a day or three.  I presume that is your immune system recognizing "foreign" and responding.  (I had a rather severe but short lived response to the second Shingrix vaccine.)

Perhaps with all the money thrown at this effort some broader good will accrue.  

My worry is that the next pandemic may be more lethal than this one.  We've talked about something as contagious with a latency period but a 10% mortality rate.

Not good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 13, 2020, 09:15:36 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 13, 2020, 08:56:54 AM
One hope I have is that our scientists have learned a lot about coronavirus vaccine approaches.  The Pfizer approach is "simply" a specific RNA fragment.  I think that's pretty cool, presuming it works.  It does have some side effects apparently, folks can feel "down" for a day or three.  I presume that is your immune system recognizing "foreign" and responding.  (I had a rather severe but short lived response to the second Shingrix vaccine.)

Perhaps with all the money thrown at this effort some broader good will accrue. 

My worry is that the next pandemic may be more lethal than this one.  We've talked about something as contagious with a latency period but a 10% mortality rate.

Not good.

Yes that would be far worse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 13, 2020, 09:26:37 AM
Can we get through this pandemic, before we start talking about the next one? Right now, that's fiction.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 13, 2020, 09:29:17 AM
Well, I guess.

You know what I miss?  I miss "pandemic traffic" from April/May.  I could get all the way across town in maybe 10-15 minutes.  Now all of those annoying a-holes are back on my roads clogging them up unnecessarily.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 13, 2020, 09:52:35 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 13, 2020, 02:28:47 AM
Grrrr, name-calling! 

El Paso is exporting dead bodies. Not in Ohio, but it would be the 2nd-largest city there, behind Columbus.  You talk about economics, but seem to think the anecdotal evidence in your personal sight-line is all the data you need. 

Call me some more names and look silly.  Meanwhile, 1,400 more people are going to die tomorrow (OR WILL THEY?!?).
Save your name calling lament I'm sure the board is recoiling in horror becaus anything directed at you is unprovoked,right? :D .People already in severe compromised health issues .Many already in line with hospice or very susceptible with stage 4 cancer,asthma,COPD,Lung Cancer,kidney failure,bed ridden or recently ambulatory.I know of one,a 63 yr old friend who unfortunately wasn't following protol and had already had blood clots removed from his lungs 12 yrs ago.Everyone I've talked to know of someone who got tagged but for many wasn't really proven because the hospitals chasing lost revenue from missed surgeries because they are keeping beds open waiting for surges.Nobody has said throw caution to the wind.It is second nature for almost everyone to follow procedure.For the most part people have been dragging the company line here and elsewhere

  For those of us forced to fend for ourselves wrecking the economy isn't worth the pittance of safety we've received in exchange
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 13, 2020, 09:54:44 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 13, 2020, 08:14:34 AM
I don't think it will be around forever. Once the vaccine is in place and gains a strong hold, this thing could be eradicated.

Much depends on the rest of the world here. We need to share whatever we come up with.
That's what they said about the measles, too. Then some dumbass got the chiropractors to tell their patients to stop vaccinating their kids, and it's back with a damn vengeance. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 13, 2020, 09:56:11 AM
I don't get why people don't vaccinate their kids.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 13, 2020, 10:05:45 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 13, 2020, 09:56:11 AM
I don't get why people don't vaccinate their kids.
Because Bill Gates.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 13, 2020, 10:17:57 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 13, 2020, 08:28:04 AM
We know of many coronaviruses that return year after year.  We know of many influenza viruses that return year after year.  I see no reason to think this will ever be eradicated.

I certainly hope it can be, but as I've been told over and over on this thread, hope is not a strategy.

And neither is asking humans to isolate from one another for a year or more.

Time to start being practical and realistic about how to handle this.  Time to start using our vast array of technological resources to our advantage.  Time to start using our tremendous knowledge of process improvement to our advantage.  Time to stop telling people they're not allowed to live their lives, and instead create ways to enable people to live their lives.
As I've said, we have two options. A vaccine, or natural herd immunity. 

A vaccine might not be perfect, or permanent, but it's a way to provide immunity and at least get this under control, and perhaps if the virus is with us "forever" to mitigate the effects of future outbreaks. 

Natural herd immunity, I'm convinced, is the way to another 1M plus deaths in the US. So it's our plan Q at this point. Plans A-P are all the vaccines being worked on. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 13, 2020, 10:20:21 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 13, 2020, 10:17:57 AM
As I've said, we have two options. A vaccine, or natural herd immunity.

A vaccine might not be perfect, or permanent, but it's a way to provide immunity and at least get this under control, and perhaps if the virus is with us "forever" to mitigate the effects of future outbreaks.

Natural herd immunity, I'm convinced, is the way to another 1M plus deaths in the US. So it's our plan Q at this point. Plans A-P are all the vaccines being worked on.
I don't consider it a "plan" at all, simply an inevitable outcome. 

We should probably start some other plans though, that don't rely on the hope of a vaccine, and don't expect people to live in isolation indefinitely-- because that bit is already not working.  It was never a long term solution.  It could never have been.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 13, 2020, 10:40:03 AM
I remain amused at the concept of "a plan", as if some magical "plan" could really have deterred this significantly (short of long term shut down).

I would like to have heard more consistent national emphasis on distancing and masks, but that is guidance, not a plan.

A crash program to develop vaccines is part of a plan, and we did that apparently.

It was to our detriment that this got politicized, but that was inevitable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 13, 2020, 10:55:31 AM
We have significant technological resources we could bring to bear. We just haven't done so.

Back in March/April, we had a huge number of American (and global) manufacturing and engineering firms committing tremendous energy and significant finances toward developing and manufacturing more, better, less costly ventilators.  We now have scores of thousands of those things lying around unused, because as it turns out, in the case of this disease, they're not particularly good at keeping sick people alive.

But imagine if we had instead focused all of those resources on developing more and better and cheaper indoor ventilation/filtration systems?

Or brought to bear our knowledge of process flow, and improved the ways we move people through buildings.

And likely a thousand other ideas that smart people could have come up with, but simply haven't, because the only two levers anyone seems willing to pull are distancing, and pursuit of a vaccine.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 13, 2020, 10:57:08 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 13, 2020, 10:20:21 AM
I don't consider it a "plan" at all, simply an inevitable outcome. 

We should probably start some other plans though, that don't rely on the hope of a vaccine, and don't expect people to live in isolation indefinitely-- because that bit is already not working.  It was never a long term solution.  It could never have been.
I know you've talked about indoor air filtration, but I doubt that will even do much to reduce R0 if you have people congregating without masks. 

Other than that, I don't see any plans that don't involve continued distancing until we get to a vaccine, or failing a vaccine, get to natural herd immunity.

I don't even understand what those plans could look like. 

Which is to say, I have to think this is one of those situations where alternate plans existed, someone would be saying something. But they're not, and with as many people in the world looking at this as there are, makes me think alternate plans won't exist.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 13, 2020, 11:04:32 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 13, 2020, 10:57:08 AM
I know you've talked about indoor air filtration, but I doubt that will even do much to reduce R0 if you have people congregating without masks.

Other than that, I don't see any plans that don't involve continued distancing until we get to a vaccine, or failing a vaccine, get to natural herd immunity.

I don't even understand what those plans could look like.

Which is to say, I have to think this is one of those situations where alternate plans existed, someone would be saying something. But they're not, and with as many people in the world looking at this as there are, makes me think alternate plans won't exist.
We've seen detailed, reconstructed diagrams of the way this thing spread in a couple of different restaurants, based on where Patient Zero was seated next to an air return, and the way the ensuing outflow from vents cascaded across table after table of Patients 1 through X.  Just imagine if a submicron air filter had been in place, imagine the limit to the spread in that one restaurant, and then all the people infected at second touch, and third touch, etc.

I've also read numerous accounts of how airplanes are considered largely safe, due to their filtration systems.

So no, I'm not going to agree that there's simply nothing we can do to help, regarding air filtration and improved ventilation for indoor buildings.

Like a mask-- in fact EXACTLY like a mask-- it's not a guaranteed solution.  But it can certainly be helpful.

I don't think we're getting an effective vaccine.  It would be nice, for sure.  But that's not the basket where we can afford to place our eggs.

We're smart people.  We need to start doing smart things.

Living in isolation indefinitely isn't smart, and it's already failing miserably.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 13, 2020, 11:09:48 AM
How much air resistance is developed when using a submicron air filtration system?

I'd think perhaps an electrostatic filter might be more practicable?

I once worked on the filtration properties of a submicron "holy" polymer and the problem was air resistance.

Fine filter, but not practicable without rather heroic air handling cap.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 13, 2020, 11:15:05 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/qtpUTly.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 13, 2020, 11:23:39 AM
I'm not saying it won't help at all, but I think air filtration solves a second or third order problem.

I.e. if you're in row 10 of an airplane and there's an infected person in row 25, the air filtration systems in the airplane do a pretty good job of protecting you. Those stories about air filtration systems are due to the belief by many that airplanes are somehow more dangerous because of recycled air, and they're putting those stories out there to defuse that belief.

If you're in 25A and there's an infected person in 25B, however, the air filtration system of the airplane never comes into play. At that point it's a lot better protocol for you both to be wearing a mask.

Likewise, in a restaurant the air filtration could help protect someone 25 feet away at a different table. But if it's 4 people from 4 households sharing a table for an hour, the air filtration doesn't even come into play. 

So I'm not saying it's a bad idea. I think we'd have to look at cost, and the reduced airflow of strong filters potentially increasing the energy requirements of running the system, measured against the actual benefit provided. Especially for businesses which are now doing a lot of WFH--better spacing and air filtration could help avoid outbreaks in an office environment. 

But I'm saying that if one of the primary modes of spread is small gatherings, as a lot of people are saying right now, air filtration is only a tiny piece of a much larger puzzle.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 13, 2020, 11:24:25 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 13, 2020, 11:09:48 AM
How much air resistance is developed when using a submicron air filtration system?

I'd think perhaps an electrostatic filter might be more practicable?

I once worked on the filtration properties of a submicron "holy" polymer and the problem was air resistance.

Fine filter, but not practicable without rather heroic air handling cap.
Well I'd certainly leave those questions to the experts, to answer and resolve.  Dammit Jim, I'm an electrical engineer, not a doctor!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 13, 2020, 11:26:20 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 13, 2020, 10:20:21 AM
I don't consider it a "plan" at all, simply an inevitable outcome. 

We should probably start some other plans though, that don't rely on the hope of a vaccine, and don't expect people to live in isolation indefinitely-- because that bit is already not working.  It was never a long term solution.  It could never have been.
we are working this plan currently
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 13, 2020, 11:26:50 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 13, 2020, 11:23:39 AM
I'm not saying it won't help at all, but I think air filtration solves a second or third order problem.

I.e. if you're in row 10 of an airplane and there's an infected person in row 25, the air filtration systems in the airplane do a pretty good job of protecting you. Those stories about air filtration systems are due to the belief by many that airplanes are somehow more dangerous because of recycled air, and they're putting those stories out there to defuse that belief.

If you're in 25A and there's an infected person in 25B, however, the air filtration system of the airplane never comes into play. At that point it's a lot better protocol for you both to be wearing a mask.

Likewise, in a restaurant the air filtration could help protect someone 25 feet away at a different table. But if it's 4 people from 4 households sharing a table for an hour, the air filtration doesn't even come into play.

So I'm not saying it's a bad idea. I think we'd have to look at cost, and the reduced airflow of strong filters potentially increasing the energy requirements of running the system, measured against the actual benefit provided. Especially for businesses which are now doing a lot of WFH--better spacing and air filtration could help avoid outbreaks in an office environment.

But I'm saying that if one of the primary modes of spread is small gatherings, as a lot of people are saying right now, air filtration is only a tiny piece of a much larger puzzle.

I'm talking about keeping restaurants and businesses open.

Nothing-- and I mean NOTHING-- we plan or say or do, at this point, is going to keep people from gathering in small groups inside their own homes, and spreading this thing.

So if we determine that THAT is the primary mechanism of spread, and everything else is orders of magnitude smaller, then there's not much point in all of the other stuff, is there?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 13, 2020, 11:30:13 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 13, 2020, 11:04:32 AM
So no, I'm not going to agree that there's simply nothing we can do to help, regarding air filtration and improved ventilation for indoor buildings.

Like a mask-- in fact EXACTLY like a mask-- it's not a guaranteed solution.  But it can certainly be helpful.

I don't think we're getting an effective vaccine.  It would be nice, for sure.  But that's not the basket where we can afford to place our eggs.

We're smart people.  We need to start doing smart things.

Living in isolation indefinitely isn't smart, and it's already failing miserably. 
I'm much more hopeful.  It seems from reports that 3 or 4 American companies are having some success with vaccine development.
Besides that there are many other international efforts going on at the moment.  Some of these foreign vaccines may not be shared initially, but I'd guess they could be copied if effective.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 13, 2020, 11:41:27 AM
Picked up 500 shares of AZN yesterday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 13, 2020, 12:16:40 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 13, 2020, 11:26:50 AM
I'm talking about keeping restaurants and businesses open.

Nothing-- and I mean NOTHING-- we plan or say or do, at this point, is going to keep people from gathering in small groups inside their own homes, and spreading this thing.

So if we determine that THAT is the primary mechanism of spread, and everything else is orders of magnitude smaller, then there's not much point in all of the other stuff, is there?
Nope. 

Which is why I think the vaccine development is top priority. 

And at this point, I don't think there's any point to closing restaurants, because people are still going to gather privately. If they're going to do it anyway, might as well contribute to the economy while they do, right?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 13, 2020, 12:24:35 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 13, 2020, 12:16:40 PM
Nope.

Which is why I think the vaccine development is top priority.

And at this point, I don't think there's any point to closing restaurants, because people are still going to gather privately. If they're going to do it anyway, might as well contribute to the economy while they do, right?
Well we're aligned there.

Main difference between you and me, is that I don't expect a vaccine.

I sure hope we see one, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 13, 2020, 12:33:58 PM
5,552 positive cases on 51,000+ tests run, 10.8%. Deaths are down slightly from last week's peak, but hospitals are still pegged out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Benthere2 on November 13, 2020, 01:06:24 PM
i hope a treatment that is better than what we had maybe 4 months ago can be developed  

vaccines are nice but are only part of the fix

a combination of an effective treatment and a vaccine can eliminate the percentage that the vaccine wont totally limit.  and maybe we can get our lives back to pre COVID normal

problem is I am not hearing much about a treatment
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 13, 2020, 01:35:17 PM
Treatments have advanced, dexamethasone, remdesivir to name two that have been approved and treat different aspect of the disease.  There also is the Lily approach with antibodies that was used on Trump.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 13, 2020, 01:37:14 PM
bleach injections and ultraviolet light treatments getting more advanced? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 13, 2020, 01:39:06 PM
At times, you'd just like a person to SHUT UP.  (No meant for anyone here.)

Also, mildly amusing to me:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/13/biden-advisor-dr-gounder-says-covid-advisory-panel-doesnt-support-full-us-lockdown.html

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 13, 2020, 02:27:35 PM
FL:

86,400 tests
6,787 positive
7.9% positive
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 13, 2020, 02:45:17 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 13, 2020, 11:24:25 AM
Well I'd certainly leave those questions to the experts, to answer and resolve.  Dammit Jim, I'm an electrical engineer, not a doctor!
And we suspect Bill Gates has sub contrated the hacks at Dell to get on with the chip implantation
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on November 13, 2020, 02:49:00 PM
I know I am in the minority on this forum, but I just don't see the panic about this virus. Yes it is contagious, yes, people can die from it.  That said, your chances of dying (in the general population) if you actually beat the odds and get it in the first place is very small.

In the past month, I have travel to Massachusetts to visit friends and family. I have traveled to Ohio for my son's wedding and interacted with a large number of people I didn't know.

Every Friday night, I have gone out and officiated a football game and gone out afterwards to a restaurant to have dinner and drinks with my crew mates. 

I guess I could be a super spreader, except in spite of not taking a lot of precautions I haven't contracted it. From the fear espouse by so many (including a number on this forum) I should have at least got Covid by now. 

I will say what I have said countless time to people. If you have a co-morbidity, isolate yourself until this pandemic passes, if you don't live your life because you are at little risk.  Now I can hear it now, what if you get it and spread it to someone else who dies.  I will repeat, what was the person with a co-morbidity doing being out and about, because the great odds are that if a person died with Covid, they are someone with a co-morbidity. 

But that makes me a heartless jerk. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 13, 2020, 02:51:08 PM
heartless jerk
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 13, 2020, 02:55:27 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 13, 2020, 02:51:08 PM
heartless jerk
Ha! beat me to it RR has very valid points,if you think you're susceptible double down on precautions.If not follow protocol because you could be asymptomatic and still pass it on
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 13, 2020, 03:31:08 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on November 13, 2020, 02:49:00 PM
I know I am in the minority on this forum, but I just don't see the panic about this virus. Yes it is contagious, yes, people can die from it.  That said, your chances of dying (in the general population) if you actually beat the odds and get it in the first place is very small.

In the past month, I have travel to Massachusetts to visit friends and family. I have traveled to Ohio for my son's wedding and interacted with a large number of people I didn't know.

Every Friday night, I have gone out and officiated a football game and gone out afterwards to a restaurant to have dinner and drinks with my crew mates.

I guess I could be a super spreader, except in spite of not taking a lot of precautions I haven't contracted it. From the fear espouse by so many (including a number on this forum) I should have at least got Covid by now.

I will say what I have said countless time to people. If you have a co-morbidity, isolate yourself until this pandemic passes, if you don't live your life because you are at little risk.  Now I can hear it now, what if you get it and spread it to someone else who dies.  I will repeat, what was the person with a co-morbidity doing being out and about, because the great odds are that if a person died with Covid, they are someone with a co-morbidity.

But that makes me a heartless jerk.

I don't recall where you live, RR.  Is it a place that has a high number of cases right now, or a large and densely packed population? 

Both of those are factors in how likely you are to catch it, at any given time.  For example, at its peak here in Austin back in July/August, I was more likely to catch it by being out and about, than I am now, simply because the environment around me at any given time was more likely to contain it.

Same thing for densely packed urban environments compared to less inhabitated rural areas. 

The spread comes from being in close proximity with a person that is infected and infectious, for a period of time that's > 10 minutes, evidence shows 15-20 seems to be the likely amount of time.

Also, badgerfan just told me you've already had it anyway.

Twice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 13, 2020, 03:31:34 PM
some think I'm a heartless jerk for eating chicken wings, Charlie Boy sammiches, and quaffing brews in public places
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 13, 2020, 03:33:04 PM
Fearless has had it three times.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 13, 2020, 03:37:19 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 13, 2020, 03:33:04 PM
Fearless has had it three times.
Fearless is THE original superspreader
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Abba on November 13, 2020, 03:42:20 PM
I used to follow some of this guy's stuff for OSU basketball.  I hear he's now a covid expert:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/11/11/kyle-lamb-data-florida-coronavirus-desantis/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/11/11/kyle-lamb-data-florida-coronavirus-desantis/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 13, 2020, 03:43:02 PM
aren't we all?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 13, 2020, 03:46:37 PM
Listening to the daily briefing from the MN Dept of Health. Depressing as hell. Multiple references to unknown territory. 

Dr. Michael Osterholm was on the call. Among other things, he reminded everyone that the next 3 weeks of cases are already out there and would still be swamping the system even if there were 0 new cases tomorrow.

The father of one of our ring-bearers is an orthopedic surgeon, whose wing is being shut down and all the staff being moved to COVID floors. Both him and his family are terrified. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 13, 2020, 03:54:45 PM
Hospital capacity could be exceeded.  I expect elective surgery to be curtailed soon in places, if not already happening.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 13, 2020, 04:02:22 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 13, 2020, 03:33:04 PM
Fearless has had it three times.
He's also had the crabs and halitosis but don't go bragging about it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 13, 2020, 04:07:51 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 13, 2020, 03:54:45 PM
Hospital capacity could be exceeded.  I expect elective surgery to be curtailed soon in places, if not already happening.
Already happening in Illinois.

Do you remember when the Army Corps was out building hospitals for cities, at convention centers and such?

Yeah, me too.

Most cities took them all down.

Oops.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 13, 2020, 04:30:47 PM
Those are just beds, the real problem is staffing them.  We can't just go build new docs and nurses.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 13, 2020, 04:39:11 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 13, 2020, 04:30:47 PM
Those are just beds, the real problem is staffing them.  We can't just go build new docs and nurses.
No, but you could repurpose the ones you are putting out of business when elective things are cancelled.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 13, 2020, 04:39:42 PM
no, but the orthopedic surgeon and all the staff can be moved to COVID beds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 13, 2020, 05:00:31 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 13, 2020, 04:39:42 PM
no, but the orthopedic surgeon and all the staff can be moved to COVID beds.
Or just to regular beds. Let the ICU people deal with the more severe cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 13, 2020, 05:09:43 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 13, 2020, 04:39:11 PM
No, but you could repurpose the ones you are putting out of business when elective things are cancelled.
It doesn't work that way.  Tons of articles came out back in Feb/Mar/Apr talking about this exact thing.  You can't just plug regular docs and nurses into the ICU, it's two different skill sets developed with a lot of time and training.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 13, 2020, 05:51:26 PM
My friend in Boston is an OB/GYN.  He told me in late March he was being "alerted" for COVID duty.  He said he couldn't stop women from having babies and needing checkups, but he could certainly serve as needed, and would.  I don't think he did, he never mentioned it to me if he did.

Might be a last line of defense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 13, 2020, 05:59:28 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 13, 2020, 05:09:43 PM
It doesn't work that way.  Tons of articles came out back in Feb/Mar/Apr talking about this exact thing.  You can't just plug regular docs and nurses into the ICU, it's two different skill sets developed with a lot of time and training.
perhaps, but it's better than you or me taking a crack at it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 13, 2020, 06:01:14 PM
A specialist is still an MD, though he might be rusty.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 13, 2020, 06:11:30 PM
I took an electrical engineering class that included radar antenna design, but you sure as shit wouldn't want to be on a jet airplane relying on a radar antenna designed by me.  Just sayin'.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 13, 2020, 06:32:47 PM
Of course not, but we wouldn't be relying on an OB/GYN to manage highly technical COVID cases.  He'd be overseeing nurses in effect and dealing with patients who are "out of the woods" or "not yet serious" so the Internists and experts can focus.

I never did take a class in inorganic chemistry, somehow I skated out of that.  I had to read up on it at one point to pass some cumes and probably learned as much as taking a course, and then forgot 99.999% of it.

The Pre-Med students I taught in labs were pretty bad about "learn and forget".
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 13, 2020, 06:33:29 PM
but, if pressed into antenna design, you'd come up to speed better than most
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 13, 2020, 06:34:52 PM
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03218-z?utm_source=Nature%20Briefing&utm_campaign=f35973ca8f-briefing-dy-20201113&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-f35973ca8f-43966705&fbclid=IwAR2rRgVfI_Tq94lhSPiTqK0PUhPnCIIm-332t1tQ9hjafCi0nzt9Th6Vr4I

Fascinating.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 13, 2020, 06:38:16 PM

Quote
And there are roughly three times more mink than people in Denmark.
(https://i.imgur.com/i4g4Wvh.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 13, 2020, 06:41:12 PM
Outbreaks have also been detected in mink farms in the Netherlands, Sweden, Spain, Italy and the United States.

buy your furs before the price goes up!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on November 13, 2020, 09:11:50 PM
So many people said it was all going to go away on election day.  What stories are they finding in the toilet now?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 13, 2020, 09:20:35 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on November 13, 2020, 09:11:50 PM
So many people said it was all going to go away on election day.  What stories are they finding in the toilet now?
Well, it did for those thousands and thousands of people who gathered in the streets of most major cities to celebrate Biden.  
 A non story.   But it didn’t last long- the same talking heads who were silent about that were outraged about all of the masked fans rushing the field at ND. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 13, 2020, 10:42:25 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on November 13, 2020, 09:11:50 PM
So many people said it was all going to go away on election day.  What stories are they finding in the toilet now?
well, to be fair, the election is still undecided for some
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 14, 2020, 12:27:17 AM
Thursday, the charter school was talking about how wonderfully they were doing and how if we go back to the purple tier they aren't required to end in person instruction. 3 hours later, school was canceled for today. Now we're distance leaning until the end of 2020.

Not a single student has tested positive. Two support staff members tested positive. Nobody has shown evidence of an outbreak.

Why exactly are we pivoting to distance learning? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 14, 2020, 06:18:18 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 14, 2020, 12:27:17 AM
Thursday, the charter school was talking about how wonderfully they were doing and how if we go back to the purple tier they aren't required to end in person instruction. 3 hours later, school was canceled for today. Now we're distance leaning until the end of 2020.

Not a single student has tested positive. Two support staff members tested positive. Nobody has shown evidence of an outbreak.

Why exactly are we pivoting to distance learning?
Ask the teachers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 14, 2020, 07:27:13 AM
Hard to follow protocol when so called leaders behave like they are above the guidelines they lay out for everyone else - hypocrites

Evidently Cali's Gov doesn't practice what he preaches violating his own guidelines.He was at a B-Day party with 3 families
https://abc7.com/health/newsom-apologizes-for-attending-birthday-party-in-napa-county/7931674/

And Pelosi can't seem to stick to the rulz either
https://www.businessinsider.com/pelosi-criticized-for-indoor-dinner-for-new-house-members-coronavirus-2020-11

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 14, 2020, 07:29:24 AM
Just got this email from CVS:



As America has struggled through the COVID-19 pandemic, it has been difficult to find a path toward health.
 
 Over the last few days, that path became a little clearer. We are closer to having an authorized vaccine to treat COVID-19.
 
 Still, the question that so many of us have is “How would I get that vaccine?” CVS Health® has entered into a contract with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). We were selected as one of the official COVID-19 Vaccination Program Providers.
 
 The United States government will make a supply of the COVID-19 vaccine available to CVS Health when authorized and available to administer in pharmacies nationwide. We will offer it to the public through our 10,000 locations, following established vaccine prioritization guidelines.
 
 CVS Health is already working to enable administration of the vaccine once it is available for pharmacies nationwide.
 
 We are proud of and thankful for the efforts of our pharmacists, nurse practitioners and pharmacy technicians. They have served many communities across the U.S. and helped conduct nearly 7 million COVID-19 tests. We know they stand ready to do the same thing when COVID-19 vaccinations are available.
 
 We are still in a global pandemic and there are so many questions. Stay informed on our response (https://pharmacy.cvs.com/pub/cc?_ri_=X0Gzc2X%3DAQpglLjHJlTQGmqf96azcBlwgHze2joDhdPFLGrRzclUbrNzdzgqgJs106uzfWfWKMEtvzfsChVXtpKX%3DWRASUYWT&_ei_=EuN1sQsI3Uwi6JYiqq2RGQ-q1EuhvTC9CjN4idakRfJskyhe98fS32sd0PHnZRCWr8tqXAVTdw0W4TwcFM1p-q2mG0ZKPkOU7fV4W-_ax4cXtAusDd2gtUcRDZqsUriZih-XNycdnSKEZ9ynKQx7zwzatUtBpsHMBXWUzNQ15EIQksTrDO6is7VMy-SfGsc7St62EXnvBx0icb_QbjHKye4YW96vZCzpASxSUg.&_di_=3ncuq63c0ar8gndnert6815m2dc46hesd9u88c91mp9vuvue2np0).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 14, 2020, 07:40:34 AM
that's a hopeful message from CVS
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 14, 2020, 07:41:26 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 14, 2020, 07:27:13 AM
Hard to follow protocol when so called leaders behave like they are above the guidelines they lay out for everyone else - hypocrites

shouldn't be that hard
most of us know right from wrong
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 14, 2020, 07:55:37 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 14, 2020, 07:40:34 AM
that's a hopeful message from CVS
Very much so. The biggest thing sounds like keeping this vaccine very cold.

My wife's old company has a lot of freezer technology, including a full line of freezer semi trucks. I imagine they will be involved somehow, with distributions out of Chicago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 14, 2020, 07:57:20 AM
won't be a problem up here for the next 5 months
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 14, 2020, 08:01:32 AM
It's going to -103 F for the next 5 months? 

Glad I got out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 14, 2020, 08:03:20 AM
it's gonna feel like it when the wind comes up
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 14, 2020, 08:11:50 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 14, 2020, 08:01:32 AM
It's going to -103 F for the next 5 months?

Glad I got out.
Been a nice Oct/Nov so far
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2020, 09:07:32 AM
France does seem to be slowing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 14, 2020, 09:46:40 AM
That's good news, hope their hospitals are weathering the storm okay.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2020, 09:50:38 AM
My understanding is France is on the edge which is the primary reason Macron shut things down again.  There were reports of patients being shipped long distances to hospitals not yet overrun.

A respite now should show up in that category in 2 weeks or so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 14, 2020, 12:48:41 PM
Things keep getting uglier. 8700 new cases yesterday in MN on 16% positives. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 14, 2020, 01:09:26 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 14, 2020, 07:27:13 AM
Hard to follow protocol when so called leaders behave like they are above the guidelines they lay out for everyone else - hypocrites

Evidently Cali's Gov doesn't practice what he preaches violating his own guidelines.He was at a B-Day party with 3 families
https://abc7.com/health/newsom-apologizes-for-attending-birthday-party-in-napa-county/7931674/

And Pelosi can't seem to stick to the rulz either
https://www.businessinsider.com/pelosi-criticized-for-indoor-dinner-for-new-house-members-coronavirus-2020-11


Yep. Newsom acts like he's the King of California, issuing decrees about what we all can and can't do, and yet isn't practicing what he preaches. Damn hypocrite.

Really tough to take him seriously. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 14, 2020, 01:41:05 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on November 14, 2020, 12:48:41 PM
Things keep getting uglier. 8700 new cases yesterday in MN on 16% positives.
wait till ya get to 20% like Iowa or your neighbors to the west
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 14, 2020, 02:33:27 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 14, 2020, 01:41:05 PM
wait till ya get to 20% like Iowa or your neighbors to the west
Many acquaintances were crowing about how the Dakota weren't living in fear, the governor of South Dakota was tough, etc.

They've been on radio silence for the last 3 weeks. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 14, 2020, 02:38:23 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 14, 2020, 01:09:26 PM
Yep. Newsom acts like he's the King of California, issuing decrees about what we all can and can't do, and yet isn't practicing what he preaches. Damn hypocrite.

Really tough to take him seriously.
The Illinois guy is similar. Nobody could travel early on, but it was OK for his family to go to Florida and Wisconsin.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 14, 2020, 08:44:48 PM
184,000 new cases.  In one day.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 15, 2020, 08:14:26 AM
Lots of tests. This is a good thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 15, 2020, 08:37:45 AM
Well on our way to herd immunity, by hook or crook.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 15, 2020, 08:53:23 AM
Rock on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 15, 2020, 09:07:22 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/GxOv4Qd.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/sfOurJR.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/fDbrodo.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 15, 2020, 09:24:37 AM
A typical virus has a sheath in effect of fatty material that soap or ethanol tears apart and the viral particle comes apart.

Soap, or detergent, molecules can solubilize fats in water, which is why they work at removing grease or dirt, and killing germs.  We are very fortunate to have access to such cheap and effective agents.

They form some rather interesting and complex structures in water called micelles.

I saw some kind of lady's wash that claims to contain "Micellar Water", as if that is some special kind of a thing.  Marketing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 15, 2020, 09:32:12 AM
I find it interesting that the possible new vaccine will requite storage in at a very low temp but the virus its supposed to protect against is not affected by normal temps
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 15, 2020, 10:09:52 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 15, 2020, 09:32:12 AM
I find it interesting that the possible new vaccine will requite storage in at a very low temp but the virus its supposed to protect against is not affected by normal temps
That is characteristic of RNA of about any type, and the vaccine is based on RNA.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 15, 2020, 10:20:25 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 15, 2020, 10:09:52 AM
That is characteristic of RNA of about any type, and the vaccine is based on RNA.
This will present quite a challenge especially to rural areas
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 15, 2020, 01:10:47 PM
“Ultra-cold vaccine may be shipped from the manufacturer in coolers that are packed with dry ice,” the Oct. 29 interim guidance said. (https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/imz-managers/downloads/COVID-19-Vaccination-Program-Interim_Playbook.pdf) “These coolers should be repacked with dry ice within 24 hours of receipt of shipment (day 0), and repacked again every five days to maintain required temperature. On day 15, the vaccine should be moved into the refrigerator, stored at 2 degrees C to 8 degrees C and used within five days (120 hours)."


Dry ice is pretty readily available and sublimes at -78°C.  Dry ice of course is CO2.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 15, 2020, 01:54:56 PM
not an issue
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 15, 2020, 02:00:56 PM
Yeah, I think dry ice is accessible everywhere in the US except maybe Alaska in parts, and they can store it outside.  (Not really.)

If they ship vaccine to some very isolated community, they can easily ship additional dry ice as needed, it doesn't take much space.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 15, 2020, 02:18:49 PM
a very isolated community might be small enough that it wouldn't take too many days to administer the vaccine
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 15, 2020, 02:30:20 PM
It used to come to us in cubes about a foot on a side, a bit more, in a simple chest wrapped in brown paper.  It lasted quite a long time in a simple ice chest.

We used an ice pick to chip off pieces and then a grinder to get small pieces we'd mix with acetone.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 15, 2020, 03:49:54 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 15, 2020, 10:20:25 AM
This will present quite a challenge especially to rural areas
They don't need a vaccine for a fake virus....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 15, 2020, 04:22:50 PM
Take it somewhere else. It's tired.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 15, 2020, 06:07:27 PM
Georgia is definitely trending higher in all categories, but not yet as bad as June.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 15, 2020, 06:23:16 PM





(https://i.imgur.com/DkU5QjB.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/0umDfCE.png)






(https://i.imgur.com/uDfPJ3D.png)(https://i.imgur.com/Iew7e74.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/1BoSLEU.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 16, 2020, 07:49:34 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/16/moderna-says-its-coronavirus-vaccine-is-more-than-94percent-effective.html

More good news on vaccine front.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 16, 2020, 08:41:59 AM
FL:

Total FL Residents Tested: 131,506
  Positive: 9,928 - 7.55%
  Negative: 121,578

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 16, 2020, 08:42:54 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 16, 2020, 07:49:34 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/16/moderna-says-its-coronavirus-vaccine-is-more-than-94percent-effective.html

More good news on vaccine front.
two horse race with a third not far behind
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 16, 2020, 08:48:25 AM
Question:

What happens if someone got infected and then takes the vaccine?



Nothing they just get sick and has to get vaccinated again?

                             OR

They get over it and dont need another vaccine shot?

                             OR

They dont get sick and quickly recover and dont need another vaccination?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 16, 2020, 08:56:47 AM
If you have antibodies against COVID and get vaccinated, it should mean you would just enhance your ABs and likely have no counter reaction.

There is still a question as to how long resistance lasts.

The stock market likes the news, which is a decent indicator it is good news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 16, 2020, 09:00:02 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 16, 2020, 07:49:34 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/16/moderna-says-its-coronavirus-vaccine-is-more-than-94percent-effective.html

More good news on vaccine front.
Hope these are not some sleaze ball snake oil shills looking for  profit windfall.I can see it later "well it worked when we tested it"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 16, 2020, 09:06:25 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 16, 2020, 09:00:02 AM
Hope these are not some sleaze ball snake oil shills looking for  profit windfall.I can see it later "well it worked when we tested it"
Pfizer and Moderna are large companies, they would be heavily penalized if this is some sham.  There is debate ongoing about how much profit there is to be made in this, and it's probably not that much for them given their costs and government contract pricing.

They have results from a 30,000 panel test, so the statistics should be decent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 16, 2020, 09:09:33 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 16, 2020, 08:56:47 AM
If you have antibodies against COVID and get vaccinated, it should mean you would just enhance your ABs and likely have no counter reaction.

There is still a question as to how long resistance lasts.

The stock market likes the news, which is a decent indicator it is good news.
wont they be able to answer that by monitoring the test group
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 16, 2020, 09:10:44 AM
Given how Big Pharma put the screws to many cancer patients,I'm not holding my breath.Nothing wrong with profit but they we're literally bankrupting some folks who ended up passing anyway :violent-smiley-007:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 16, 2020, 09:20:26 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 16, 2020, 09:09:33 AM
wont they be able to answer that by monitoring the test group
Yes, over time, like a year from now maybe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 16, 2020, 09:21:09 AM
However they treat cancer patients is, I think, not relevant to the question of whether this vaccine is truly effective.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 16, 2020, 09:32:39 AM
So do you figure out who is going to be the major supplier of dry ice and buy a few shares of their stock?

Might be these guys 
https://www.continentalcarbonic.com/company.html#:~:text=Continental%20Carbonic%20Products%2C%20Inc.,of%20dry%20ice%20blasting%20equipment.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 16, 2020, 10:55:32 AM
so, do folks that think they have had the viru or think they may have had the virus take an anti-body test before they are given the vaccine?

or just vaccinate everyone?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 16, 2020, 12:42:19 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 16, 2020, 10:55:32 AM
so, do folks that think they have had the viru or think they may have had the virus take an anti-body test before they are given the vaccine?

or just vaccinate everyone?
I'd say we likely end up vaccinating everyone, annually, like the flu vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 16, 2020, 01:16:05 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 16, 2020, 10:55:32 AM
so, do folks that think they have had the viru or think they may have had the virus take an anti-body test before they are given the vaccine?

or just vaccinate everyone?

So I'd say vaccinate everyone. What if you got the "L" strain initially and that doesn't confer immunity to the "GH" strain, and the vaccine will protect you from "GH" and the other widespread "G" variants? Might as well get the vaccine.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 16, 2020, 01:23:32 PM
sounds reasonable

just thought in the early going with vaccinations, they should go to the people at higher risk.  Such as those that do not have antibodies
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 16, 2020, 01:32:30 PM
We're never going to know how many have antibodies/exposure, because a huge number of people have had it already and didn't know it, or they were misdiagnosed in November/December/early January.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 16, 2020, 01:39:25 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 16, 2020, 01:23:32 PM
sounds reasonable

just thought in the early going with vaccinations, they should go to the people at higher risk.  Such as those that do not have antibodies
I think at the beginning it should go to the high risk regardless. I'm gonna let them be the guinea pigs before I get in line.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 16, 2020, 01:44:50 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 16, 2020, 01:39:25 PM
I think at the beginning it should go to the high risk regardless. I'm gonna let them be the guinea pigs before I get in line.
how noble

I assume high risk includes healthcare workers

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 16, 2020, 01:52:02 PM
many healthcare workers and others at high risk have a high probability of already having the virus.

It should also be fairly easy to get these folks an antibody test

I suppose if the vaccine is cheap and readily available, just stick it in everyone's shoulder.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on November 16, 2020, 01:52:11 PM
Would you consider Jim Harbaugh high risk?  Or is that different...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 16, 2020, 01:56:50 PM
Imagine if the $2,000 epi-pen guy helped develop the vaccine and wanted to charge people $10,000?  

Would so many be pro-private sector then?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 16, 2020, 02:05:11 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 16, 2020, 01:39:25 PM
I think at the beginning it should go to the high risk regardless. I'm gonna let them be the guinea pigs before I get in line.
I'll get in line next week
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 16, 2020, 02:07:17 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 16, 2020, 01:56:50 PM
Imagine if the $2,000 epi-pen guy helped develop the vaccine and wanted to charge people $10,000? 

Would so many be pro-private sector then?
I wouldn't be in line next week.  I'd wait for the price to go down or take my chances like I've been doing for the last 7 months
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 16, 2020, 02:08:12 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 16, 2020, 01:56:50 PM
Imagine if the $2,000 epi-pen guy helped develop the vaccine and wanted to charge people $10,000? 

Would so many be pro-private sector then?
I just paid $10 in copay for two epi-pens.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 16, 2020, 02:10:14 PM
and your insurance company still made money
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 16, 2020, 02:11:56 PM
Probably, but I'll tell ya, I've gotten my money's worth in the past from BCBS. The spinal fusion alone set them back a ton of money. Then my wife had one. Lots of titanium in the house.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 16, 2020, 02:22:55 PM
Insurance is like the casino

if you made a few bucks, a bunch of poor saps lost their asses
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 16, 2020, 02:40:24 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 16, 2020, 01:39:25 PM
I think at the beginning it should go to the high risk regardless. I'm gonna let them be the guinea pigs before I get in line.
That was my thought as well. 

I'll roll up my sleeve when it's my turn, but my turn doesn't need to happen right away. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 16, 2020, 02:46:09 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 16, 2020, 01:39:25 PM
I think at the beginning it should go to the high risk regardless. I'm gonna let them be the guinea pigs before I get in line.
The issue with this is that side effects might not show up for a year or more.  

It should be fairly easy to assign vaccines to risk groups in order of need and level of exposure.  I can think of a lot of groups that should get it before me, my physical therapist for example.  She sees 16 people a day.  The police, perhaps groups that contact a lot of folks during the day, truckers? ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 16, 2020, 03:02:07 PM
I think all bartenders should be high on the list
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 16, 2020, 03:06:56 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 16, 2020, 03:02:07 PM
I think all bartenders should be high on the list
Any job that faces the public in numbers should be up there, versus folks who stay mostly in their house.
I'd imagine workers in retirement homes etc. should be up there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 16, 2020, 03:07:00 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 16, 2020, 02:46:09 PM
The issue with this is that side effects might not show up for a year or more. 
I'm not looking for perfect safety. I realize that no matter what, we're going to be in a situation of incomplete information. I'm fine with that.

Heck, I want to get back to life and I know the vaccine is the only way I can do that. 

I just don't mind if 10M or 20M people get it before me and we see how they do. I'm lucky enough that I'm low-risk due to age/comorbidities. I'm also lucky that I'm more capable of isolation than most, due to WFH. So while I want to get back to life, to travel, to everything else, I'm not in such a rush that I need to get it first.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 16, 2020, 03:13:13 PM
Supposedly the Pfizer version makes a fair number of recipients feel down for 2-3 days.  The Moderna approach had much less of that, I don't know why.  That's the only side effect we know of today.  I doubt any show up in say 6 months after mass vaccinations.  (I doubt any show up period really.)

I personally will be in line when my time comes around.  It's a bit selfish I suppose, but part of our lives is travel, and that has been wiped out this year except a month long trip to France in Jan/Feb., which is not the best time to visit France.

It's been a good year for me financially in part because I'm spending less money and in part because I was fortunately with some stocks, but I can't spend it.  If we get vaccinated and travel, I may be gone a while.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 16, 2020, 03:26:34 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 16, 2020, 03:13:13 PM
I personally will be in line when my time comes around.  It's a bit selfish I suppose, but part of our lives is travel, and that has been wiped out this year except a month long trip to France in Jan/Feb., which is not the best time to visit France.

It's been a good year for me financially in part because I'm spending less money and in part because I was fortunately with some stocks, but I can't spend it.  If we get vaccinated and travel, I may be gone a while.
Yeah, I don't think my company will "pressure" those of us who regularly travel to get the vaccine, because I doubt they can legally do so. But I'm sure they want us all to get back to traveling to see customers, so that will be one of the things that pushes me to get it sooner.

Then, if I am already traveling for business, my wife and I will want to get back to traveling for pleasure. 

Plus, we need to combine two of those trips (going to Austin) so my wife can actually experience it and get a sense of whether she wants to move there :72:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 16, 2020, 03:28:34 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 16, 2020, 09:21:09 AM
However they treat cancer patients is, I think, not relevant to the question of whether this vaccine is truly effective.
They're still dispensing their product which they're claiming saves lives while possibly bankrupting unfortunate souls with a fatal condition
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 16, 2020, 03:33:24 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 16, 2020, 03:28:34 PM
They're still dispensing their product which they're claiming saves lives while possibly bankrupting unfortunate souls with a fatal condition

What is an example of that by Pfizer or Moderna?  I had an impression that most cancer treatments were still only partially successful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 16, 2020, 03:38:12 PM
There is no cure for cancer. None of the treatments are a guarantee.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 16, 2020, 05:03:39 PM
Looks like Wisconsin has peaked now, as the 7 day moving average has started to slowly fall.

This week will tell us a lot for how things are going up there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 16, 2020, 05:21:14 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 16, 2020, 03:33:24 PM
What is an example of that by Pfizer or Moderna?  I had an impression that most cancer treatments were still only partially successful.
I didn't ask the families who were saying their goodbyes who the dirty POS's were.When Cindy's mom was dying of pancreatic cancer there was some anti nausea drug,that wasn't yet generic so empty their pocket they did,she obviously didn't have a complete package so she saw bills  many with complete coverage may not see - it was still robbery
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 16, 2020, 05:26:37 PM
So, we have no idea if Pfizer or Moderna were involved in that?

Both are for profit companies, and I have some experience in how companies can behave badly.  SO, I expect them to attempt to maximize profit in their line of work.  I don't expect them to be kind, charitable, or whatever other laudable characteristic one might hope for UNLESS it offers some PR benefit they want.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 16, 2020, 05:36:34 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 16, 2020, 05:26:37 PM
So, we have no idea if Pfizer or Moderna were involved in that?

Both are for profit companies, and I have some experience in how companies can behave badly.  SO, I expect them to attempt to maximize profit in their line of work.  I don't expect them to be kind, charitable, or whatever other laudable characteristic one might hope for UNLESS it offers some PR benefit they want.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 16, 2020, 05:39:01 PM
I said before  profit was fine we're talking thousands for one prescription .Pfizer or Moderna are still here she isn't

PS I didn't say it was those two but it was big pharma
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 16, 2020, 05:41:40 PM
This was some anti-nausea drug?

Not an actual cancer treatment?

I'm confused.  Maybe it cost a lot to develop, I don't know.  Maybe it costs a lot to make.  Maybe it had some insanely high profit margin.  I obviously don't know these things, nor whether Pfizer was the maker.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 16, 2020, 05:50:41 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 16, 2020, 05:03:39 PM
Looks like Wisconsin has peaked now, as the 7 day moving average has started to slowly fall.

This week will tell us a lot for how things are going up there.
Based on what? I use worldometers:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/wisconsin/

What I see there is perhaps a weekend pause, but there was a similar pause from Oct 25-28 that didn't really stop the upward trend afterwards.

I agree that the next week or so will determine if there's any change in trend, but I'm asking as my normal data source hasn't shown anything that I would call "started to slowly fall". 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on November 17, 2020, 12:34:21 AM
One of my clients passed away from it yesterday. Just 70 years old. Saw him Oct. 9 and he was great. After I heard the obituary on the radio at 7:45 a.m. I called his wife by 8:30 a.m. to offer my condolences. I talked to his daughter later and told her I was not attending church and not attending wakes or funerals, this year. He had prior good health. 
My wife's aunt age 93 just contracted it. It is probably the reckless behavior of someone who we think probably walked it into her home and who obviously was exposed to the virus in that person's home, and should have known better.
This is so frustrating. I worked to avoid it, and while I didn't avoid it, there are too many who are not even trying to avoid it.
That said, I had a walk-in today who was able to sneak in my usually locked front door as another client walked out. (I require appointments now). I thanked him for wearing a mask. He replied, "Everyone should wear a mask. I lost my brother to it."

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 17, 2020, 05:45:44 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 16, 2020, 05:50:41 PM
Based on what? I use worldometers:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/wisconsin/

What I see there is perhaps a weekend pause, but there was a similar pause from Oct 25-28 that didn't really stop the upward trend afterwards.

I agree that the next week or so will determine if there's any change in trend, but I'm asking as my normal data source hasn't shown anything that I would call "started to slowly fall".
State website.


Weekend pause doesn't show up until Tuesday/Wednesday now. Tests from Friday show up Sunday/Monday. Friday is normally the biggest testing day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 17, 2020, 06:30:41 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 16, 2020, 05:41:40 PM
This was some anti-nausea drug?

Not an actual cancer treatment?

I'm confused.  Maybe it cost a lot to develop, I don't know.  Maybe it costs a lot to make.  Maybe it had some insanely high profit margin.  I obviously don't know these things, nor whether Pfizer was the maker.
People on Chemo often suffer from nausea. I know my mom did, more often than not.

Anti-nausea drugs are normally cheap. It's the Chemo that's insanely high.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 17, 2020, 06:39:38 AM
Yup, in general, anti-cancer drugs are designed to kill off rapidly multiplying cells, which includes the stomach lining and hair follicles.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 17, 2020, 06:53:12 AM
No big surprise, but the death numbers and case numbers out of Russia are under-reported by a factor of 4.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 17, 2020, 07:56:27 AM
How would anyone know if it's a factor of 4, or 8, or 25, or 100x too low?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 17, 2020, 08:08:55 AM
I read some investigation this morning while looking at the Kenosha paper.

https://www.kenoshanews.com/news/world/how-bad-is-russias-covid-crisis-packed-morgues-and-excess-deaths-tell-a-darker-story/article_dcce92c0-902d-5337-bebc-fc8595d03747.html

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 17, 2020, 08:24:04 AM
I like this much better than the other one, which must be stored at -100F. This is much more feasible.


On Monday, Moderna also announced that its COVID-19 vaccine has so far proved 94.5% effective, based on preliminary data in its ongoing study. That vaccine can be stored at 36 degrees Fahrenheit to 46 degrees Fahrenheit — the temperature of a standard home or medical refrigerator — for 30 days. And it can be stored at negative 4 degrees Fahrenheit for up to six months or at room temperature for up to 12 hours.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 17, 2020, 09:37:47 AM
Suddenly the state of MN's purchase of a large cold storage facility back in March doesn't look so dumb. 

MDH originally intended it to be a temporary morgue (and with the hard surge in cases in the Midwest, it may still be used as such), but having a large centrally-located cold storage hub to maintain and distribute cold-dosage vaccine is a good thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 17, 2020, 11:21:55 AM
Iowa starts it's first mask mandate today

I guess the election is over

bars closed at 10pm

I hope this helps

I'll be wearing a mask into the bar Wednesday night for wings and won't be able to sit at the bar.

Supposed to be in the 60's Wednesday, might sit in the beer garden at a picnic table!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 17, 2020, 11:31:10 AM
Sounds a lot like what we practice down here. Outside, and masks, other than when you are sitting at a distanced table.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 17, 2020, 12:04:18 PM
my understanding is that the vaccine by Moderna does not require the extreme cold for storage

if true this will be a huge factor in which one will be the main one used
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 17, 2020, 12:05:23 PM
In the race to produce a COVID-19 vaccine, researchers around the world are using a wide range of strategies, from first-of-their-kind mRNA approaches to tried-and-true inactivated vaccines to oral, nasal and probiotic-based formulations.

University of Nebraska–Lincoln virologist Asit Pattnaik is eyeing yet another approach. With support from the Office of Research and Economic Development’s COVID-19 Rapid Response Grant Program, Pattnaik is beginning to develop a vaccine framework that exploits the properties of a naturally occurring nanoparticle in an effort to produce a stronger, longer-lasting immune response than other vaccine candidates. He’s also taking a closer look at how SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, inhibits the immune system.

Tom Petro, professor of microbiology and immunology at the University of Nebraska Medical Center and a member of the Nebraska Center for Virology, is partnering with Pattnaik on the project.

The team’s vaccine work capitalizes on a protein called ferritin, which is produced by almost all living organisms. In humans, ferritin is the primary iron storage protein and guards against iron deficiency or surplus. It’s shaped like a symmetrical hollow sphere, or nanocage, built of 24 protein subunits. This cage structure, which Pattnaik calls a “spherical football,” makes ferritin unusually stable, allowing it to withstand variable temperatures and chemical environments.


https://news.unl.edu/newsrooms/today/article/researchers-aim-to-use-protein-to-ramp-up-covid-19-antigens-impact/ (https://news.unl.edu/newsrooms/today/article/researchers-aim-to-use-protein-to-ramp-up-covid-19-antigens-impact/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 17, 2020, 12:37:37 PM
Orange County back on the most restrictive "purple" tier starting today. 

As mentioned, the charter school is distance-learning until at least end of December. Thankfully, the public system is remaining in-person (hybrid for most students, all-day for autism-specific/special ed students) so the one kid who needs it will still be in school. 

Indoor dining is done for, now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 17, 2020, 12:45:25 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 17, 2020, 12:04:18 PM
my understanding is that the vaccine by Moderna does not require the extreme cold for storage

if true this will be a huge factor in which one will be the main one used
Correct. I posted about it one page back.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 17, 2020, 01:04:08 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 17, 2020, 11:31:10 AM
Sounds a lot like what we practice down here. Outside, and masks, other than when you are sitting at a distanced table.
Indoor dining at distanced tables is still allowed here, but I'm not doing it.  The weather is great for patio dining, and even when it gets cooler, most every restaurant in Austin with outdoor seating, has plenty of heaters.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 17, 2020, 01:18:06 PM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferritin

Fascinating
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 17, 2020, 09:29:13 PM
The state of Iowa's 14-day average for new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday crept over 4,000 for the first time during the pandemic. That average only hit 1,000 for the first time just a month ago.

The state’s 14-day average for daily new deaths was also at an all-time high on Tuesday, as was the number of Iowans currently hospitalized for COVID-19: 1,510. That’s triple what it was just four weeks ago. And the 14-day average of new COVID-19 hospitalizations has doubled over just the past two weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 18, 2020, 06:20:40 AM
This is also good.

https://www.lucirahealth.com/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 18, 2020, 07:55:55 AM
Florida creeping up to 8.6% positive yesterday.

85,453 tests and 7,350 positive.

I think part of the uptick here is that the state-run testing sites are now only testing people who have symptoms. 

Private testing sites will test anyone.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 18, 2020, 08:50:13 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 17, 2020, 12:04:18 PM
my understanding is that the vaccine by Moderna does not require the extreme cold for storage
fine send it up here
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 18, 2020, 08:54:10 AM
France has dropped rather quickly now, but that is not being seen in other Euro countries yet.

Georgia had a one day spike, maybe because it was Monday.  New cases have gone up from about 1,000 to double that per day, previous high was 3,800.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 18, 2020, 09:12:52 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 18, 2020, 06:20:40 AM
This is also good.

https://www.lucirahealth.com/

its about time


how much will it cost

when will it be available
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 18, 2020, 09:18:19 AM
It's available now, via prescription from your provider, who may suspect you have it. It is not an over-the-counter thing.

I still think the best way is CVS, if there is one close. They have done a really good job with this thing.

Walgreens is now testing too, at some locations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 18, 2020, 09:39:52 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 18, 2020, 09:18:19 AM
It's available now, via prescription from your provider, who may suspect you have it. It is not an over-the-counter thing.

I still think the best way is CVS, if there is one close. They have done a really good job with this thing.

Walgreens is now testing too, at some locations.
why isnt it over the counter

bummer
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on November 18, 2020, 10:44:21 AM
"North Dakota’s mask mandate went into effect Saturday, as the state recorded 2,270 new cases of the virus. Also over the weekend, South Korea began imposing fines for noncompliance with mask requirements as it registered 205 new daily cases — the first time since September the country’s one-day count had exceeded 200. South Korea, with a population about 70 times that of the Great Plains state, has recorded fewer than 500 coronavirus deaths, while North Dakota has seen nearly 800."

It's almost as if there are ways to control this thing even without the vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 18, 2020, 10:54:10 AM
maybe, but I don't want to live in South Korea
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2020, 10:57:09 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 18, 2020, 10:54:10 AM
maybe, but I don't want to live in South Korea
Amen brutha.

NTTAWWT
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 18, 2020, 11:01:28 AM
Gov. Walz is cranking things back down here in MN. Bars and restaurant are takeout-only for the next four weeks. Gyms and fitness centers closed outright. HS and youth sports parked for that long. Address the state tonight at 6 PM CST.

Fitting that I'm supposed to be at a HS BB rules clinic tonight. I went to a softball umpire clinic the night before the hammer came down the first time back in March.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 18, 2020, 12:27:49 PM
Looks like hoarding has begun in some parts of the country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2020, 12:38:23 PM
Yup.

But I don't expect it to be as bad this go-around, because I don't expect people to actually self-isolate and lockdown as hard as they did before.

At this point, most people have been to the grocery store dozens of times, and feel more comfortable with it.  Lots of people have been to restaurants, too, so for regions where those don't completely close down by government decree, people know what they're getting into if they choose to go to one.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 18, 2020, 12:45:07 PM
We should be fine down here, but my brother back up North says it's already bad - and it's not even a full lockdown (almost, but not quite).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 18, 2020, 01:05:35 PM
the pallet of TP they have in the basement should be enough for 5 or 6 years, no need to get another pallet
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2020, 02:07:20 PM
Sounds like your bro should move to Florida.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 18, 2020, 02:12:07 PM
or Texas
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2020, 02:13:08 PM
nah, mass hoarding here, no beer and no toilet paper so don't move here thank you for your support
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on November 18, 2020, 02:39:37 PM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/11/18/health-care-worker-threats-coronavirus/?arc404=true

It's probably behind a pay wall...but:

Is this who we are?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2020, 02:40:19 PM
yeah paywall
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 18, 2020, 03:07:26 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on November 18, 2020, 02:39:37 PM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/11/18/health-care-worker-threats-coronavirus/?arc404=true

It's probably behind a pay wall...but:

Is this who we are?


My DIL is an ER nurse.

One day she was on her way to work (not on the way home) and some old man berated her for even thinking about stepping foot in the gas station.

She was in tears.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 18, 2020, 03:15:09 PM
should have kicked him in the nutz
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 18, 2020, 03:16:33 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 18, 2020, 03:15:09 PM
should have kicked him in the nutz
She's pregnant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 18, 2020, 03:21:08 PM
Both raw positives and % positive are down a bit today (5100 and 13.6%, respectively), but the lagging surge in deaths is starting to show up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2020, 05:44:34 PM
I suppose this tidbit belongs here:

Just an FYI, but my Chinese suppliers have recently decommitted on something like a million units over the next 6 months, for stated reasons that don't add up and make zero business sense.

I have my own theories on exactly why they're unable to supply their previously committed quantities, why their factories are unable to produce the agreed-upon units.  But it's only speculation of course, because officially the CCP is still reporting, what, 4K or 5K deaths since March... in a country with a population of 1.5 billion.

Anyway, long story short-- expect extreme scarcity in computers and all consumer electronics goods over the next 12 months, with prices skyrocketing as supply falls significantly short of demand.

Merry Christmas!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 18, 2020, 05:48:46 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 18, 2020, 05:44:34 PM
I suppose this tidbit belongs here:

Just an FYI, but my Chinese suppliers have recently decommitted on something like a million units over the next 6 months, for stated reasons that don't add up and make zero business sense.

I have my own theories on exactly why they're unable to supply their previously committed quantities, why their factories are unable to produce the agreed-upon units.  But it's only speculation of course, because officially the CCP is still reporting, what, 4K or 5K deaths since March... in a country with a population of 1.5 billion.

Anyway, long story short-- expect extreme scarcity in computers and all consumer electronics goods over the next 12 months, with prices skyrocketing as supply falls significantly short of demand.

Merry Christmas!
so should I purchase a lap top on Black friday?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2020, 05:50:46 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 18, 2020, 05:48:46 PM
so should I purchase a lap top on Black friday?
If you need a new one, and want it within the next year, then... yeah.

We're running some pretty good deals, last year I bought my daughter one of our mid-level 2-in-1 touch 17" laptops for $650.  I suspect we'll run similar promos this year.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 18, 2020, 05:53:03 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 18, 2020, 05:50:46 PM
If you need a new one, and want it within the next year, then... yeah.

We're running some pretty good deals, last year I bought my daughter one of our mid-level 2-in-1 touch 17" laptops for $650.  I suspect we'll run similar promos this year.
Thank You,Mon
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 18, 2020, 06:00:58 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 18, 2020, 05:44:34 PM
Anyway, long story short-- expect extreme scarcity in computers and all consumer electronics goods over the next 12 months, with prices skyrocketing as supply falls significantly short of demand.
Ugh. Prices skyrocketing is good... Higher margin for the storage devices that go into those PCs.

Extreme scarcity is bad, because even if you have higher margins you may not sell enough to make up for it given that the subcomponent then becomes an oversupply situation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2020, 06:13:10 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 18, 2020, 06:00:58 PM
Ugh. Prices skyrocketing is good... Higher margin for the storage devices that go into those PCs.

Extreme scarcity is bad, because even if you have higher margins you may not sell enough to make up for it given that the subcomponent then becomes an oversupply situation.
Yeah, exactly.


And this is just my perspective and I don't see the whole business, but I don't like what I'm hearing right now.  The reasons for decommits don't add up, which is why I have my suspicions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 18, 2020, 06:25:49 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 18, 2020, 06:13:10 PM
Yeah, exactly.


And this is just my perspective and I don't see the whole business, but I don't like what I'm hearing right now.  The reasons for decommits don't add up, which is why I have my suspicions.
So far I haven't heard much. But we don't have nearly as much supply chain exposure to China as many others, at least not with any of the product lines I normally work with. I think retail's supply chain is heavier in China.

I don't really believe their "official" numbers over there, I'll tell you that. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 18, 2020, 06:39:10 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 18, 2020, 05:44:34 PM
I suppose this tidbit belongs here:

Just an FYI, but my Chinese suppliers have recently decommitted on something like a million units over the next 6 months, for stated reasons that don't add up and make zero business sense.

I have my own theories on exactly why they're unable to supply their previously committed quantities, why their factories are unable to produce the agreed-upon units.  But it's only speculation of course, because officially the CCP is still reporting, what, 4K or 5K deaths since March... in a country with a population of 1.5 billion.

Anyway, long story short-- expect extreme scarcity in computers and all consumer electronics goods over the next 12 months, with prices skyrocketing as supply falls significantly short of demand.

Merry Christmas!
its time we start making a lot of that stuff over here

Chine has their hand on our throats when it comes to medical and computer supplies
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 18, 2020, 07:03:09 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 18, 2020, 06:39:10 PM
its time we start making a lot of that stuff over here

Chine has their hand on our throats when it comes to medical and computer supplies
You might get it out of China, but you'll not get it made here. 

It'll just move to other LCC (low cost countries).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 18, 2020, 07:07:27 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 18, 2020, 06:39:10 PM
its time we start making a lot of that stuff over here

Chine has their hand on our throats when it comes to medical and computer supplies
Thanks to American CEOs who really couldn't give a shit about either quality they were selling or the jobs they thru away.My god how much do you really need after 20/30/40 million
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 18, 2020, 07:22:01 PM
when it becomes a threat to our security the Gov might consider encouraging production in this country

some things just cant be left up to other countries

and never say never
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 18, 2020, 07:36:10 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 18, 2020, 07:03:09 PM
You might get it out of China, but you'll not get it made here.

It'll just move to other LCC (low cost countries).
It’s been leaving China slowly for awhile now. We turned China into the power it is today. Big mistake.

And why can’t we have it made here? Greed. Simple as that. Why was it ever allowed to go over there in the first place? Greed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 18, 2020, 07:59:14 PM
Next July, my wife is going to be the matron of honor at the wedding of her best friend from grad school. The groom-to-be just tested positive for COVID. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 18, 2020, 08:11:51 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 18, 2020, 07:22:01 PM
when it becomes a threat to our security the Gov might consider encouraging production in this country

some things just cant be left up to other countries

and never say never
Well, the "national security" argument may make sense in certain cases, but it likely isn't as often as it's invoked.

And I could regale you with tales of how recent laws on the subject are filled with loopholes that render them toothless... But that's a discussion over a beer, not on a public internet forum.
Quote from: Mdot21 on November 18, 2020, 07:36:10 PM
It’s been leaving China slowly for awhile now. We turned China into the power it is today. Big mistake.

And why can’t we have it made here? Greed. Simple as that. Why was it ever allowed to go over there in the first place? Greed.
It's been leaving China because China is increasingly no longer a LCC (low cost country). China's been getting richer, so manufacturing that is headcount-dependent has been moving to lower cost areas. 

But the question of why things are made elsewhere is simple... Consumers make decisions based on price, rather than country of origin, when all other things are equal. An American company can sell widget X for $20, but if a foreign competitor sells the same widget for $12.50, the consumer will speak. So... The American company seeks to do what is necessary (overseas production) to compete with that $12.50 price. 

Mercantilism was killed by Adam Smith and David Ricardo several centuries ago. But its zombie continues to plague us all. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 18, 2020, 09:04:50 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 18, 2020, 08:11:51 PM
Well, the "national security" argument may make sense in certain cases, but it likely isn't as often as it's invoked.

And I could regale you with tales of how recent laws on the subject are filled with loopholes that render them toothless... But that's a discussion over a beer, not on a public internet forum.It's been leaving China because China is increasingly no longer a LCC (low cost country). China's been getting richer, so manufacturing that is headcount-dependent has been moving to lower cost areas.
Do you remember when the Oil Cartel had us by the gonads

Then we decided to utilize technology and become self sufficient 

We now produce more oil then we use

We can do the same thing with medical equipment and supplies

Are we going to be dependent on China for materials necessary for production of vaccines

if so then thats not good

Im not saying everything needs to be produced here just high priority items
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on November 19, 2020, 12:24:26 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 18, 2020, 09:04:50 PM
Do you remember when the Oil Cartel had us by the gonads

Then we decided to utilize technology and become self sufficient

We now produce more oil then we use

We can do the same thing with medical equipment and supplies

Are we going to be dependent on China for materials necessary for production of vaccines

if so then thats not good

Im not saying everything needs to be produced here just high priority items
This is really off-topic. If you live long enough everything changes. It has with oil.
The next change is just about upon us. Within 5-years production of electric vehicles will dramatically increase. As production increases, prices of EVs will decrease.  Fossil fuel companies will lose influence over our policymaking over time in the same manner as tobacco companies did, but they are not going down without a fight. Iowa and Texas are wind energy states, and believe it or not, Texas and Iowa will lead the nation into a cleaner future. Oddly enough this competition is playing out between wind energy and Iowa's and Texas's traditional industries, in Iowa -corn (and ethanol production), in Texas - natural gas and oil production.
The good thing for these two states, they did not put themselves in the position of West Virginia and Wyoming where coal went down, and there was nothing left economically to replace coal. In years to come there will still be a lot of pain to come in Texas and Iowa, unless new uses can be found for old natural resources.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on November 19, 2020, 12:35:52 AM
I feel so much better now that efficacious vaccines appear to be coming soon. But five-more-months, for the Joe Six-Packs like most of us is a long time to hold out with masks.
Talked to a brother-in-law over the phone for 12-minutes today as he constantly coughed, and explained that my wife's sister would be getting a COVID-19 test Thursday, while he holds out to see her test results. Umm, I said, line up a test for yourself, and you can't be sleeping with your wife.
I slept on the couch for over 17-days. My wife didn't get the virus. I sent my secretaries home 14-days. They didn't get it even though the secretaries were here as I awaited my test results. I tried to stay away. Do the courteous things. There are people dying, but I can hold out until April and wear a mask. Don't be a d-ass, wear your mask.
Incidentally, surgical masks are widely available now for purchase, online, and at your pharmacy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 19, 2020, 06:22:44 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on November 19, 2020, 12:35:52 AM
I feel so much better now that efficacious vaccines appear to be coming soon. But five-more-months, for the Joe Six-Packs like most of us is a long time to hold out with masks.
Talked to a brother-in-law over the phone for 12-minutes today as he constantly coughed, and explained that my wife's sister would be getting a COVID-19 test Thursday, while he holds out to see her test results. Umm, I said, line up a test for yourself, and you can't be sleeping with your wife.
I slept on the couch for over 17-days. My wife didn't get the virus. I sent my secretaries home 14-days. They didn't get it even though the secretaries were here as I awaited my test results. I tried to stay away. Do the courteous things. There are people dying, but I can hold out until April and wear a mask. Don't be a d-ass, wear your mask.
Incidentally, surgical masks are widely available now for purchase, online, and at your pharmacy.
I now know lots of people who have it or had it.  Every single one of them is a disciplined mask wearer. 

I say that because there still seems to be this narrative out there that this virus is spreading because people are not wearing masks.  That appears to be completely false.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 19, 2020, 07:48:44 AM
FL:

95,706 tests
7,783 positive
8.1% positive

Would really like to see that percentage drop to 4 or less.


Wisconsin had 7,989 new cases yesterday. Not sure how many tests were done. 

80% of all cases (historical) are age 0-59. 

That 0-59 age group accounts for 12% of hospitalizations. 

60-69 is 9%. 70-79 is 18%. 80-89 is 28%. 90+ is 26%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 19, 2020, 08:39:47 AM
I really don't understand this, but if these kids are not being vaccinated for things like measles and polio, what makes anyone thing their parents (and their kids) will get the vaccine for the China Virus?


Millions of American children are skipping vaccines that protect against potentially deadly or disabling illnesses due to concerns about COVID-19, according to a new Blue Cross Blue Shield Association analysis of millions of medical claims.

Children are on track to miss an estimated 9 million vaccine doses in 2020, a decrease of 26% for measles compared with 2019, and a decrease of 16% for polio, according to the analysis.


https://www.chicagotribune.com/living/health/ct-life-childhood-vaccination-plummets-11182020-20201118-k3f6v2th4vhrdd636g3cpxusxu-story.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 19, 2020, 09:07:28 AM
Pennsylvania now requiring masks be worn in your own home if folks not members of your household are present

While I dont think its a bad suggestion I dont think it should be put forward as law

as its just another law that cant be enforced 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on November 19, 2020, 03:10:48 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 18, 2020, 07:07:27 PM
Thanks to American CEOs who really couldn't give a shit about either quality they were selling or the jobs they thru away.My god how much do you really need after 20/30/40 million
This is true to a limited extent, but the tax code is a bigger issue. It's not how much the CEOs make as much as it's how much the shareholders take. Our tax code encourages corporate profits more than reinvestment in the company (including in work force wages). So if you like your 401K (and many Americans--including this one--do), just remember that it is part of the problem. (The term 401K comes directly from the tax code). Our tax code does a lot of things that benefit the upper classes, and particularly the top few percenters.

This is a really tough nut to crack, and it's a really complicated issue (not well suited to my pithy comment above), but it's a bigger one than the ridiculous executive to laborer compensation ratio (though that, too, is way out of whack).

Our tax code, which is an expression of the national culture, should value work over wealth, but actually does the opposite.

PS this has almost nothing to do with COVID-19, but hey, everyone else is doing it...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 19, 2020, 03:27:36 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on November 19, 2020, 03:10:48 PM
 Our tax code encourages corporate profits more than reinvestment in the company (including in work force wages).
I am curious about this, and I know you usually know your stuff.  Profit, after tax, can be reinvested, or retained, or paid as dividends, or used to pay down debt, or to buy more stock or other acquisition, or usually some combination of the above.  I don't have a problem with a company that pays say 30% of AT profit as dividend.

I don't have a problem if they invest in something, usually buying capital equipment is a tax advantage in a sense.  It can be amortized against future profits.  I think they even cut this to zero years at some point.

Most of CEO pay is stock options/RSUs, and other deferred compensation that can get huge if the company stock price goes up, and upper management salaries are usually not a large fraction of overall salaries, or overall business expense, even though the numbers come out tens of millions often as not.

Companies try and avoid retained a lot of cash on the books as it can make them takeover targets, and today it doesn't pay much of course.  Corporate raider types used to prey on "well managed" conservative companies that could be bought up almost with their own cash in effect and then split up and dumped.  And with current interest rates, it can make sense to borrow and buy back stock.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 19, 2020, 03:50:18 PM
It is a two-way street as at least medium size companies want to retain capital for the purposes of acquisition.   

Executive pay is often deferred, or at least strong parts of it are deferred until the executive can reach a point in age or income where they are in a lower tax bracket.  

It’s a lot like how athletes are paid. It’s what the market bears into a high degree is a meritocracy. Yes there are huge differences between the top earners in an organization and the bottom earners and it is a tough nut to crack. People who have the skill set, the drive, and the intensity to give their all to be executives in a larger firm are not easy to come by and are not going to be motivated without substantial compensation.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 19, 2020, 04:02:39 PM
Florida today:

119,142 tests
9,002 positive
7.56 % positive
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 19, 2020, 04:51:27 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 19, 2020, 06:22:44 AM
I now know lots of people who have it or had it.  Every single one of them is a disciplined mask wearer. 

I say that because there still seems to be this narrative out there that this virus is spreading because people are not wearing masks.  That appears to be completely false.
Only the narrative you're perpetuating.  Every single one of your anecdotal friends could be disciplined mask wearers, have gotten Covid, and just been a part of the percentage that still gets it.  

4 friends don't make a conspiracy theory.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on November 19, 2020, 05:08:14 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 19, 2020, 04:51:27 PM
Only the narrative you're perpetuating.  Every single one of your anecdotal friends could be disciplined mask wearers, have gotten Covid, and just been a part of the percentage that still gets it. 

4 friends don't make a conspiracy theory.
What narrative is he perpetuating?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 19, 2020, 05:39:35 PM
Minnesota today: 7877 new cases on 56,800 tests run, 13.8%. 58 deaths, and nearly all hospital beds full.

Also, 1/3 of the Mayo Clinic's staff have been infected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 19, 2020, 06:19:06 PM
Wisconsin seems to still be leveling off. We'll know come Monday if this is the case.

So far, 22 percent of their cases (total, historic) are active. 

77 percent recovered. 

1 percent death.

Illinois is a disaster right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 19, 2020, 06:44:01 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 19, 2020, 06:19:06 PM
Wisconsin seems to still be leveling off. We'll know come Monday if this is the case.

So far, 22 percent of their cases (total, historic) are active.

77 percent recovered.

1 percent death.

Illinois is a disaster right now.
Yeah, based on what I'm seeing at worldometers, Wisconsin has flattened re: cases. That's good. Hopefully it turns into a decline.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 19, 2020, 06:44:28 PM
California announces a curfew. 

I can't remember the last time I was out past 10 PM anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 19, 2020, 06:56:58 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 19, 2020, 06:44:28 PM
California announces a curfew.

I can't remember the last time I was out past 10 PM anyway.
10pm for bars in Iowa

10pm is a good time for this old man to be home and headed for bed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 19, 2020, 07:15:18 PM
Georgia appears to be blowing up now, not as bad, yet, as in June, but getting bad

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/

I'm going to reign in the dining out a bit to outside only or places where I know we're well separated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 19, 2020, 07:34:29 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 19, 2020, 04:51:27 PM
Only the narrative you're perpetuating.  Every single one of your anecdotal friends could be disciplined mask wearers, have gotten Covid, and just been a part of the percentage that still gets it. 

4 friends don't make a conspiracy theory.
What in the hell are you saying?

what narrative am I perpetuating?

I know dozens of people who have or had covid. Several barely survived.  Several in my family. Several dozen at work.  My own daughter- a N95 perms- mask wearer.  They are all mask wearers.  In fact- I am not aware of anyone in my circle of work, family and friends, that don’t wear a mask every time they step out the door.
what narrative am I pushing? 

I am disputing the narrative that it’s all non mask wearers that are spreading this.  But that should be obvious to everyone by now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 19, 2020, 07:46:33 PM
the message for a few months and before the surge has been to wear masks

unfortunately, it's not nearly as effective as hoped
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 19, 2020, 08:31:43 PM
IMO masks are effective there are other variables.Hand washing after handling money,groceries,door handles on cars and buildings etc.Inside gatherings,distancing.Unfortunately the virus could be hanging in anyone of those places
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 19, 2020, 08:43:43 PM
Yes- masks are waaaay better than no masks. 

But masks are far from foolproof as these latest spikes show.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 19, 2020, 08:51:21 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 19, 2020, 08:31:43 PM
IMO masks are effective there are other variables.Hand washing after handling money,groceries,door handles on cars and buildings etc.Inside gatherings,distancing.Unfortunately the virus could be hanging in anyone of those places
Who handles money these days? I feel like at least half if not more use credit cards or pays with their phones or watches. I know I do and I see other people do the same a lot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 19, 2020, 09:07:26 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 19, 2020, 08:43:43 PM
Yes- masks are waaaay better than no masks.

But masks are far from foolproof as these latest spikes show. 
Who said they were foolproof?  
Questioning the efficacy of wearing a mask is conspiracy theory territory.  Stop doing that.  Whether a mask helps 99% or 2%, if this statement you say above is what you believe, THEN STOP QUESTIONING MASK WEARING.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 19, 2020, 09:18:33 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 19, 2020, 09:07:26 PM
Who said they were foolproof? 
Questioning the efficacy of wearing a mask is conspiracy theory territory.  Stop doing that.  Whether a mask helps 99% or 2%, if this statement you say above is what you believe, THEN STOP QUESTIONING MASK WEARING.
I see you’re just as stupid as ever and reading comprehension is that of a third grade level. Nobody here is questioning that so STOP BEING AN IDIOT 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 19, 2020, 09:21:57 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 19, 2020, 09:18:33 PM
I see you’re just as stupid as ever and reading comprehension is that of a third grade level. Nobody here is questioning that so STOP BEING AN IDIOT
That's like asking water not to be wet lol.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 19, 2020, 09:24:14 PM
Texas and Florida Govs say no more lockdowns

https://disrn.com/news/florida-and-texas-announce-they-will-have-no-more-lockdowns
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 19, 2020, 09:25:39 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on November 19, 2020, 08:51:21 PM
Who handles money these days? I feel like at least half if not more use credit cards or pays with their phones or watches. I know I do and I see other people do the same a lot.
Do you open/close doors?Or does your butler?Do you shop or have some service drop off your food and other needs.Do you pick up groceries?Better be washing your hands after each/every contact and hope the people dropping your shit off do the same.Not saying covid is out there at every turn but evidently it just takes once.Constant vigilance is prolly worth the hassle.I think HBs wife had the virus
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 19, 2020, 10:26:48 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 19, 2020, 09:24:14 PM
Texas and Florida Govs say no more lockdowns

https://disrn.com/news/florida-and-texas-announce-they-will-have-no-more-lockdowns
Glad I live in one of those states.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 19, 2020, 11:39:28 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 19, 2020, 06:22:44 AM


I say that because there still seems to be this narrative out there that this virus is spreading because people are not wearing masks.  That appears to be completely false.
Let me continue my stupidity by quoting you.
This is what you posted.


So I'll ask:  are you suggesting everyone is wearing a mask?  When were you told that mask wearing would 100% stop the virus? 


I'm glad you feel free to insult me, and please, continue all you want, but you still said what you said.

In a room of 10 people, with 8 wearing masks, all 10 will eventually get the virus.  That's not the mask-wearer's fault, it's the 2 who aren't wearing ones.
It requires buy-in, which we here in 'Murica call "infringement of rights" (ie - stubborn ignorance).  And so no, not enough people are wearing masks.  Yes, the accelerated spread is more due to people not wearing masks.  This isn't in question, so stop questioning it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Temp430 on November 20, 2020, 06:08:31 AM
Pfizer announced successful completion of the phase three large scale trial of its vaccine on Nov. 9th.  How long does this FDA approval need to take?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 20, 2020, 07:04:32 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 19, 2020, 11:39:28 PM
Let me continue my stupidity by quoting you.
This is what you posted.


So I'll ask:  are you suggesting everyone is wearing a mask?  When were you told that mask wearing would 100% stop the virus? 


I'm glad you feel free to insult me, and please, continue all you want, but you still said what you said.

In a room of 10 people, with 8 wearing masks, all 10 will eventually get the virus.  That's not the mask-wearer's fault, it's the 2 who aren't wearing ones.
It requires buy-in, which we here in 'Murica call "infringement of rights" (ie - stubborn ignorance).  And so no, not enough people are wearing masks.  Yes, the accelerated spread is more due to people not wearing masks.  This isn't in question, so stop questioning it.
Let me help you out a little bit you seem to be struggling.

Look closely at what I said again this time don’t do it with that arrogant, self-righteous, “I know everything” opinion.

I will translate what I said into language you might understand. In a room full of 10 people were all 10 are wearing masks the virus is still spreading. So for example, in a small hospital every single person is wearing an N 95 mask and nobody is allowed in the front door without a temperature check and a mask, The virus still spreads. And that is happening a lot all over.
Never did I say that that was the primary spread of the mask and never did I defend not wearing one. Never did I question that people who don’t wear masks are more likely to spread it then people who do. You just need to get over yourself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: TyphonInc on November 20, 2020, 07:07:58 AM
Quote from: Temp430 on November 20, 2020, 06:08:31 AM
Pfizer announced successful completion of the phase three large scale trial of its vaccine on Nov. 9th.  How long does this FDA approval need to take? 

Medical / pharmaceutical guys I know here in Ohio are all saying Jan. 1st is when they will start giving the vaccine to the high risk populace. I don't know if mass production is in place yet or not, but production and FDA approval seem to be the next two hurdles to cross. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 20, 2020, 07:32:07 AM
The hospital where my DIL works already has the vaccine in a freezer. They are just waiting to be allowed to use it.

Should be a matter of a week or so, if not days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: TyphonInc on November 20, 2020, 07:49:30 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 19, 2020, 11:39:28 PM
Let me continue my stupidity by quoting you.
Yes you do continue to be stupid. (Your words not mine.) Please stop.
But just in case you are so ignorant as to not understand his perspective allow me to try and say it in different terms. 

He is not questioning the effectiveness of mask wearing. He is challenging the narrative the media is pushing that it's only non-mask wearers that are spreading this disease. That's it.


Related:
Here in Ty's clan all 4 of us are in the public schools system everyday, and have adopted their model for just about everything.
1) Don't put yourself in an unsafe situation (ie social distancing, but expanded; don't go into a setting that isn't practicing social distancing. For us adults that means BARS! For the kids it may be a play room.)
2) Wash / Hand sanitize each time you enter a new room. (We consider our own home as one room.) But everywhere else it's just a habit now to wash as you enter a room. (Our girls' routine at home is now kick off the shoes, drop the coats close to the closet, throw their back pack towards their desks, and fight to see he who gets to wash their hands first.) 
3) Wear a mask. This minimizes the amount of germs you spread, but does not to protect you from getting the virus, so make sure you are doing the other steps as well. 
4) If you feel sick or think you have been exposed Stay at Home. 

Tangent:
IMHO it's the socialist notion that wearing a mask makes a certain portion of our nation to scream Freedom! and refuse to wear a mask. Since wearing a mask helps others more than it helps you. I'm waiting for an ~ist to be attached to mask wearing. Instead of a racist, or sexist non-mask wearers will get labeled as "Health~ist" How dare those Healthist discriminant against those less healthy than them by not wearing a mask? (That approach I think will just continue to polarize the two perspectives, but you know Get Woke and all.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on November 20, 2020, 08:36:13 AM
Doing better than Gov Newsom , Ty.   His , 'apology' was peak arrogance. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 20, 2020, 09:28:29 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on November 19, 2020, 10:26:48 PM
Glad I live in one of those states.
Seconded.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 20, 2020, 09:28:46 AM
+3
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 20, 2020, 09:36:29 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 20, 2020, 09:28:46 AM
+3
1. Protect the most vulnerable - elderly in group homes at the top of this.
2. Monitor health metrics - number of cases/7days, percent positive, hospitalizations, antibody tests, deaths.
3. Allow businesses to operate - most, if not all, are practicing social distancing, requiring masks, sanitizing, PPE, etc.

Bonus:

Let those who want to work do so - not sit at home and wait for a government check to not work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 20, 2020, 09:53:01 AM
Quote from: TyphonInc on November 20, 2020, 07:49:30 AM
Here in Ty's clan all 4 of us are in the public schools system everyday, and have adopted their model for just about everything.
1) Don't put yourself in an unsafe situation (ie social distancing, but expanded; don't go into a setting that isn't practicing social distancing. For us adults that means BARS! For the kids it may be a play room.)
2) Wash / Hand sanitize each time you enter a new room. (We consider our own home as one room.) But everywhere else it's just a habit now to wash as you enter a room. (Our girls' routine at home is now kick off the shoes, drop the coats close to the closet, throw their back pack towards their desks, and fight to see he who gets to wash their hands first.)
3) Wear a mask. This minimizes the amount of germs you spread, but does not to protect you from getting the virus, so make sure you are doing the other steps as well.
4) If you feel sick or think you have been exposed Stay at Home.
Pretty much sums it up - these 4 every moment-every day
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 20, 2020, 10:21:04 AM
We are just about done with having contractors in and out of the house almost daily. I will be relieved when I no longer have to allow strangers in my home, and having to disinfect every day. It's been a pain in the ass.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 20, 2020, 10:36:09 AM
Not positive some one else said he charged it(Party) to his government account,pathetic if true
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 20, 2020, 10:37:25 AM
Our decks are done, and I had a new electric outlet installed on one of them.  We have a few more small items to finish, including a final touch up on the deck tile.

I didn't do any special cleaning when they left.  We have three maids come twice a month.  They wear masks as well.

I chatted with the wife about where we might cut back on our exposure and she had a couple ideas, restaurants to avoid.  I don't really agree with her selection but that's OK.

We'll cut back exposure possibilities a bit now.  I was thinking of another short driving trip and I think I will not do that.  We might get vaccinated by end of February?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 20, 2020, 10:37:53 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 20, 2020, 10:36:09 AM
Not positive some one else said he charged it(Party) to his government account,pathetic if true
That would probably be illegal if he did.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 20, 2020, 10:41:28 AM
Official government business. 

Per diem in CA is $800/day. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 20, 2020, 10:44:19 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 20, 2020, 10:41:28 AM
Official government business.

Per diem in CA is $800/day.
I was presuming it was a private function, not business.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 20, 2020, 10:44:25 AM
Pfizer Inc. (PFE $36) and BioNTech SE (BNTX $95) announced that they will submit a request today to the FDA for EUA of their COVID-19 vaccine candidate, which will "potentially enable use of the vaccine in high-risk populations in the U.S. by the middle to end of December 2020."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 20, 2020, 10:57:59 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 20, 2020, 10:44:19 AM
I was presuming it was a private function, not business.
It was a birthday party.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 20, 2020, 11:07:14 AM
Then it was not government business obviously.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 20, 2020, 11:08:39 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 20, 2020, 10:37:53 AM
That would probably be illegal if he did.
Kwame Kilpatrick says Hi. Oh wait, he’s still in jail. Never mind. Lol. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 20, 2020, 11:09:51 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 20, 2020, 10:41:28 AM
Official government business.

Per diem in CA is $800/day.
That will be buy 2 people dinner where he was at. What a jack ass that guy is lol.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 20, 2020, 11:10:27 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 20, 2020, 11:07:14 AM
Then it was not government business obviously.

I was hoping nobody would take my post seriously.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 20, 2020, 11:27:32 AM
you need to use the "not serious" indicators ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 20, 2020, 11:41:03 AM
Thought it was FF,my bad that's just for on the course
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 20, 2020, 11:43:32 AM
OMAHA, Neb. (WOWT) - Starting Friday, qualified, physician-referred patients can receive infusions of Bamlanivimab, an antibody-drug used to treat COVID-19, at CHI Health.

“It’s our first option to provide patients who are not hospitalized who are at high risk for hospitalization.” said David Schmidt, CHI Health’s Director of Pharmacy Services. He called the drug “unique.”

The FDA authorized the drug for emergency use earlier this month and because the supply is allocated weekly by the government, it is not available over the counter, in emergency rooms or outpatient clinics.

CHI Health’s supply is from the federal government, which was then allocated by the Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services. The 14-hospital system has 1,170 doses to be used across Nebraska and 39 doses for patients in Iowa, but critical access hospitals will also have access to this supply.


https://www.wowt.com/2020/11/18/emergency-use-antibody-covid-19-drug-infusions-available-friday-at-chi-health/ (https://www.wowt.com/2020/11/18/emergency-use-antibody-covid-19-drug-infusions-available-friday-at-chi-health/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on November 20, 2020, 11:48:15 AM
And he dines with Cal Medical Association execs and lobbyists.    You couldn't assemble a more ridiculous scene of hubris.   I love his equivocation of one being able to quibble w the guidelines.    We were in a barn...  

...My tux didn't come back from the cleaners, there were locusts, earthquakes, a terrible flood.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 20, 2020, 12:17:33 PM
If you see numbers going bad where you live, do you change your behaviors?

If so, what more do you do (or stop doing)?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 20, 2020, 12:24:57 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 20, 2020, 12:17:33 PM
If you see numbers going bad where you live, do you change your behaviors?

If so, what more do you do (or stop doing)?


I haven't engaged in any behaviors I consider to be risky regardless of what the local numbers have been.

I wear a mask inside any business I go to, and make as few trips as possible to grocery stores and hardware stores and the like, also making sure I go in off-peak times.  I don't go to bars and I only sit outside at restaurants and breweries.  We've had immediate-family get-togethers but those are also outside.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 20, 2020, 12:25:33 PM
numbers here have been bad for a month or so....

I haven't really changed my behavior because of the numbers.

the golf courses have closed and with 11am kicks for Husker games, I've not been out and about in public nearly as much the past few weeks.

there have been a few times in the past month that I've given some thought as to COVID risk when weighing an option to go out in public and decided to stay at home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 20, 2020, 12:30:00 PM
Friday's numbers: 6812 positives on 58,000 tests. 11.7% is the lowest positive percentage I've seen in at least a week. 68 fatalities. 

7-day rolling average of positive tests as of Nov. 10 was 15.4%

To answer your question, my wife and I have been deliberately reducing our trips away from the house, haven't eaten in a restaurant in a month, and are going to crank down even more with my mom's immune system being nonexistent. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 20, 2020, 12:34:10 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 20, 2020, 12:17:33 PM
If you see numbers going bad where you live, do you change your behaviors?

If so, what more do you do (or stop doing)?


Have not seen numbers go bad where I live, but I've not changed my behaviors at all. Still following the same protocols since April.

We are going out to eat tonight, outside and distanced.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 20, 2020, 12:39:55 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 20, 2020, 12:34:10 PM
Have not seen numbers go bad where I live, but I've not changed my behaviors at all. Still following the same protocols since April.

We are going out to eat tonight, outside and distanced.
Yup, I've got a date with a margarita and some enchiladas in my future.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 20, 2020, 12:54:39 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 20, 2020, 12:24:57 PM
I haven't engaged in any behaviors I consider to be risky regardless of what the local numbers have been.

I wear a mask inside any business I go to, and make as few trips as possible to grocery stores and hardware stores and the like, also making sure I go in off-peak times.  I don't go to bars and I only sit outside at restaurants and breweries.  We've had immediate-family get-togethers but those are also outside.
One of the posts that should be pinned
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 20, 2020, 01:05:34 PM
You know, you'd think that given that the charter school went to 100% distance learning through the end of the year, and they serve grades K-8, that they'd pick the same lunch time for all grades.

Nope. 7th grader has lunch from 11:40 to noon. 2nd grader has lunch from noon to 12:30. 

Would it have been THAT hard to put them both on the same schedule so I can make both lunches at the same time? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 20, 2020, 01:08:31 PM
Depends on the size of the Cafeteria and the enrollment I'd imagine.Or the front offices scheduling abilities
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on November 20, 2020, 01:08:51 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 20, 2020, 12:17:33 PM
If you see numbers going bad where you live, do you change your behaviors?

If so, what more do you do (or stop doing)?



I refuse to change my life for a virus. That doesn't mean I don't take general precautions that I have always taken before this virus.

I am going to a friend's 65th birthday party tonight, wear there will be live music and dancing. Which would be illegal if it wasn't at a private venue here in Arizona.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 20, 2020, 01:10:08 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 20, 2020, 01:08:31 PM
Depends on the size of the Cafeteria and the enrollment I'd imagine.Or the front offices scheduling abilities
This is distance learning. The "cafeteria" is my kitchen, and enrollment is 2 lol. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 20, 2020, 01:18:43 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on November 20, 2020, 01:08:51 PM
I refuse to change my life for a virus. That doesn't mean I don't take general precautions that I have always taken before this virus.

I am going to a friend's 65th birthday party tonight, wear there will be live music and dancing. Which would be illegal if it wasn't at a private venue here in Arizona.
Brilliant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 20, 2020, 01:23:18 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 20, 2020, 01:10:08 PM
This is distance learning. The "cafeteria" is my kitchen, and enrollment is 2 lol.
Bastage
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 20, 2020, 01:28:14 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on November 20, 2020, 01:08:51 PM
I refuse to change my life for a virus. That doesn't mean I don't take general precautions that I have always taken before this virus.

I am going to a friend's 65th birthday party tonight, wear there will be live music and dancing. Which would be illegal if it wasn't at a private venue here in Arizona.
One of the posts that should be pinned
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 20, 2020, 01:49:24 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 20, 2020, 01:28:14 PM
One of the posts that should be pinned
panned
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 20, 2020, 02:00:41 PM
My question is, why aren't your kids making their own lunches?  :)


Well, at least, the 7th grader anyway....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 20, 2020, 02:05:26 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 20, 2020, 02:00:41 PM
My question is, why aren't your kids making their own lunches?  :)


Well, at least, the 7th grader anyway....
He only gets 20 minutes for lunch. You haven't seen him in the kitchen, but that's about 10 minutes too short for him to "make" anything lol...

My wife and I have been teaching him cooking-related things, but he's SLOW...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 20, 2020, 02:07:12 PM
I hear ya.  My 11yo is a terror in the kitchen, it always looks like an a-bomb went off when he's done, but I'm trying to help him learn.  Some days are tougher than others.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 20, 2020, 02:08:22 PM
sammiches are quick and easy
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 20, 2020, 02:19:37 PM

Quote from: Riffraft on November 20, 2020, 01:08:51 PM
I refuse to change my life for a virus. That doesn't mean I don't take general precautions that I have always taken before this virus.

I am going to a friend's 65th birthday party tonight, wear there will be live music and dancing. Which would be illegal if it wasn't at a private venue here in Arizona.

Remember, the question about changing your behavior is NOT simply to avoid contracting the virus.

I'm 42, in moderately good shape, have a perfectly clean bill of health, and other than carrying a few extra pounds, not at high risk of severe complications from COVID. 

I change my behavior to avoid the virus so that tomorrow, for example, when we have my 65-year old father in law with an autoimmune disorder over for "Fake Thanksgiving" with the kids, the risk of him being exposed to the virus and it being MY fault is minimized. 

I hope that low-risk people in Colorado are taking precautions, because my 78-year-old parents live in a senior community there, and my mom has heart problems and already needs oxygen, and my dad is severely obese, and if they get COVID, I'd put the odds at better than even that I'd lose one of them at least.

The better job that all of us lower-risk do at minimizing the spread, the better we are able to protect the vulnerable. That doesn't mean you lock yourself in a basement until the vaccine appears. But it doesn't mean do nothing either.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 20, 2020, 02:59:56 PM
Results for FL from 11/19:

116,924 tests
8,884 positive
7.6% positive

Still holding steady in the 7-8% range. Would really like to get below 5.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 20, 2020, 03:08:36 PM
Im very willing to live my current life style for the next 6 months at which time we should start seeing some relief from a vaccine generated herd immunity

we just need to remain patient

I realize that because I live in Texas I may not be experiencing the same government requirements as some of you so I understand some if you feel a little more edgy then me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 20, 2020, 03:22:36 PM
Yeah, I think the next two months are critical.  I GUESS the vaccine will start having an impact by late January or so.  Between now and then is a troublesome period.

Georgia was hanging in there for a while but now the trends are not good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 20, 2020, 03:25:24 PM
Trends in Texas have been bad, especially in El Paso, while Austin had been doing okay.  But now Austin is headed the wrong way and I don't think the coming cooler weather and holidays are going to help, either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 20, 2020, 03:29:21 PM
I do know that the growth rate changed on November 1. The first snowfall of consequence across most of the state was October 20. 12 day lag time from that and pow!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 20, 2020, 03:30:57 PM
The weather here stayed relatively warm, just now getting chilly at night.  It's very nice out right now.  I was out earlier without a coat.

The weather doesn't seem to be a factor here.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 20, 2020, 03:55:39 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 20, 2020, 03:30:57 PM
The weather here stayed relatively warm, just now getting chilly at night.  It's very nice out right now.  I was out earlier without a coat.

The weather doesn't seem to be a factor here. 
It isn't yet here, either.

I'm speculating that it will be, come late December.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on November 20, 2020, 06:35:26 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 20, 2020, 12:17:33 PM
If you see numbers going bad where you live, do you change your behaviors?

If so, what more do you do (or stop doing)?


It’s tough to strike a balance between living a “normal” life and taking precautions.  We have eaten at a restaurant 5 times since March and we really enjoy eating out.  Two of those trips were on an outdoor patio.  We just get takeout now.  Last year, for my wife’s birthday we flew to Hilton Head and ate out all 3 nights. This year we drove, had room service one night, got takeout, and ate on the beach one evening, and ate out on a patio the last night.

My son’s birthday is July 2nd.  Last year we rented out a local pool and had roughly 40-50 family and friends there swimming, eating and just hanging out. In years past we’ve rented out bowling alleys and shelters at parks and done the same thing. This year we let him have two friends sleep over and had second thoughts doing that.

Last Thanksgiving, my wife cooked and we had 15 people from 5 different households over.  This year, it looks like it’s going to be my family and maybe her mom and my mom (but even that isn’t for sure).

On the other hand, we had a full travel softball season like we normally do, but there is no end of season party this year.  We’ve also let both kids play regularly with 2-3 of their best friends.

It’s tough to strike a balance and I think when you have kids it might be even tougher because they want to be with their friends.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 20, 2020, 06:50:45 PM
Our biggest change was going to near lack of any travel (sans a three night driving trip).

The symphony season didn't happen of course.  We couldn't dine out for a month or two, but that opened up.  We can now, and do it judiciously, not nearly so much exploring, not any really.

We still go to the park and botanical garden and take walks.  We're lucky our lives didn't change all that much, except for travel.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 20, 2020, 07:54:49 PM
We booked a 30 day cruise for next November. Crossing from Lisbon to Miami, and then a complete Caribbean cruise following that. Same ship, same room. A week in Munich before the crossing.

Can't wait.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 21, 2020, 07:20:38 AM
I am thinking the frequency of colds, flu, stomach illnesses, etc. may be down this winter.  One can hope.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on November 21, 2020, 07:35:43 AM
Our youngest kids' school switched to online mode for the next two weeks, and they will make further decisions then.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 21, 2020, 08:50:48 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 21, 2020, 07:20:38 AM
I am thinking the frequency of colds, flu, stomach illnesses, etc. may be down this winter.  One can hope.
I'd expect that.  The same methods of slowing the spread of the novel coronavirus, will serve to slow the spread of the flu, cold, and various stomach bugs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 21, 2020, 08:52:30 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 21, 2020, 08:50:48 AM
I'd expect that.  The same methods of slowing the spread of the novel coronavirus, will serve to slow the spread of the flu, cold, and various stomach bugs.
Could be even more than that. Several studies have pointed out that people who have had this virus may be immune to the common colds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 21, 2020, 08:54:15 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on November 21, 2020, 07:35:43 AM
Our youngest kids' school switched to online mode for the next two weeks, and they will make further decisions then. 
Our kids are home all next week for their pre-planned Thanksgiving break.  When I was a kid, we only got Thurs and Fri for T-day, but kids these days are spoiled! :)

And since the kids will already be home a week, I won't be surprised if the School District decides to go remote online-only from now through New Year's.  They haven't announced anything yet, but yesterday I had my kids bring home ALL of their laptop computers, ipads, notebooks, folders, unfinished projects, etc. just in case they don't ever go back.  I did the same thing on the day before Spring Break last year, and that's exactly how it worked out.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 21, 2020, 08:55:12 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 21, 2020, 08:52:30 AM
Could be even more than that. Several studies have pointed out that people who have had this virus may be immune to the common colds.
And since we've all had the rona-- TWICE-- it should be all clear this cold and flu season. ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 21, 2020, 08:55:20 AM
has there been a surge with students and teachers?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 21, 2020, 08:58:35 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 21, 2020, 08:55:20 AM
has there been a surge with students and teachers?
Nope.  


But facts and data never stopped anyone from making rash and unnecessary decisions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 21, 2020, 09:02:39 AM
we could use contact tracing data and use it effectively to slow the spread, but that might be unfair to those groups that are the cause of the spread
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 21, 2020, 09:04:25 AM
Why would that not be fair?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 21, 2020, 09:06:09 AM
why should they suffer alone, when the entire population can suffer with them?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 21, 2020, 09:10:10 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 21, 2020, 09:06:09 AM
why should they suffer alone, when the entire population can suffer with them?
Little early to hit the hard stuff isnt it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 21, 2020, 09:10:15 AM
Here in the ATX, cases are on the rise, and so are hospitalizations, which subsequently implies deaths will be rising soon as well, unfortunately.

The state and city have some hurdles/thresholds for keeping schools open, which are based on the numbers for absolute cases normalized by population, % positivity rate, and a few other things.

So, even though spread within the school building itself is really not a thing here, the status of the surrounding community will affect the go/no-go call on continuing to permit in-person school 

I don't think that makes any sense at all, but there you have it.

France recently reenacted pretty strict lockdown protocols, but left their schools open for in-person learning, and their numbers seem to have peaked about two weeks ago and are now receding rapidly.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 21, 2020, 09:45:44 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 21, 2020, 09:10:10 AM
Little early to hit the hard stuff isnt it?
I've got an 11am kick
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 21, 2020, 10:42:42 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 21, 2020, 09:06:09 AM
why should they suffer alone, when the entire population can suffer with them?
Need to use a sarcasm emoji FF,maybe the readers should drink more coffee
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 21, 2020, 12:09:29 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 21, 2020, 10:42:42 AM
Need to use a sarcasm emoji FF,maybe the readers should drink more coffee
Im just surprised OAM didnt chirp in
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 21, 2020, 12:26:45 PM
Many (most?) Phoenix-area schools are going back to online-only, at least through winter break.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 21, 2020, 12:47:41 PM
has it been shown that the schools are a significant source of spread?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 21, 2020, 12:50:20 PM
No.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 21, 2020, 12:57:29 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 21, 2020, 12:47:41 PM
has it been shown that the schools are a significant source of spread?
That's where Newsom's son was potentially exposed... 

...allegedly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 21, 2020, 12:58:44 PM
could have been a swanky restaurant 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 21, 2020, 12:59:42 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 21, 2020, 12:57:29 PM
That's where Newsom's son was potentially exposed...

...allegedly.
Yeah, we can believe him for sure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 21, 2020, 09:51:45 PM
(https://external.fdsm1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/safe_image.php?d=AQB7NIX4I5jH5FTn&w=500&h=261&url=https%3A%2F%2Fximage.c-spanvideo.org%2FeyJidWNrZXQiOiJwaWN0dXJlcy5jLXNwYW52aWRlby5vcmciLCJrZXkiOiJGaWxlc1wvMmVhXC8yMDIwMTExOTE3MjE1MjAwMl9oZC5qcGciLCJlZGl0cyI6eyJyZXNpemUiOnsiZml0IjoiY292ZXIiLCJoZWlnaHQiOjYzMCwid2lkdGgiOjEyMDB9fX0%3D&cfs=1&ext=jpg&_nc_cb=1&_nc_hash=AQCvy-Vr3gUtvyHe)

CDC Director Redfield Says Data Supports Face-to-Face Learning in Schools
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 21, 2020, 10:33:00 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 21, 2020, 12:47:41 PM
has it been shown that the schools are a significant source of spread?
No.  Apparently it's not about spread within the schools, but in the community the school serves.  
I don't know the right answer.


And before anyone gets too shitty about teachers not wanting to be exposed, remember they're the same people who would shield their students from gunfire without hesitation.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 21, 2020, 11:06:25 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 21, 2020, 10:33:00 PM
No.  Apparently it's not about spread within the schools, but in the community the school serves. 
I don't know the right answer.


And before anyone gets too shitty about teachers not wanting to be exposed, remember they're the same people who would shield their students from gunfire without hesitation. 
it must be really bothersome walking around with that chip on your shoulder
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 21, 2020, 11:18:55 PM
contact tracing here shows schools are not a significant source of the community spread or surge

could be different other places, just wondering why close schools if data shows they are not the source
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on November 21, 2020, 11:25:21 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 21, 2020, 10:33:00 PM
No.  Apparently it's not about spread within the schools, but in the community the school serves. 
I don't know the right answer.


And before anyone gets too shitty about teachers not wanting to be exposed, remember they're the same people who would shield their students from gunfire without hesitation. 
I support you, and teachers generally. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 21, 2020, 11:49:06 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 21, 2020, 11:06:25 PM
it must be really bothersome walking around with that chip on your shoulder
According to 847, I've got a cushy government job.  You see, sometimes, people let politics shield their pleasant demeanor and seem like an uncaring asshole.  


Luckily that'll never happen to you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 22, 2020, 01:14:08 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 21, 2020, 11:49:06 PM
According to 847, I've got a cushy government job.  You see, sometimes, people let politics shield their pleasant demeanor and seem like an uncaring asshole. 


Luckily that'll never happen to you.
one of your faults is that you always assume the worst in people

my wife was a bilingual teacher for over 40 years

Im very aware of the good work teachers do

Im sure Im not alone on this forum so before you just assume that your fellow posters will condemn you because youre a teacher you might consider giving us the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise

and no teaching is far from cushy
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on November 22, 2020, 01:23:26 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 22, 2020, 01:14:08 AM
one of your faults is that you always assume the worst in people

my wife was a bilingual teacher for over 40 years

Im very aware of the good work teachers do

Im sure Im not alone on this forum so before you just assume that your fellow posters will condemn you because youre a teacher you might consider giving us the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise

and no teaching is far from cushy
This post is an improvement on your earlier work, but is still snarky. I prefer not to engage, but consider bringing down the snarkiness. Review your paragraph #1.  No excuses.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 22, 2020, 07:27:00 AM
Back on TOPIC, Georgia continues to go higher.  Not good at all, we could exceed June peaks in a week or so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 22, 2020, 07:58:43 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on November 22, 2020, 01:23:26 AM
This post is an improvement on your earlier work, but is still snarky. I prefer not to engage, but consider bringing down the snarkiness. Review your paragraph #1.  No excuses.
Thats exactly what my HS English teacher said to me


funny how some things never change

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 22, 2020, 08:09:08 AM
So, about a month or so back, we all saw Europe going bad and wondered if we'd get hit, suspected we would I think.  And it has happened.

The "good news" is France has clearly cut it's case rate from about 50K per day to about 20K per day with another shut down (except schools).

The "bad news" is I'm not seeing this yet in adjoining countries.  Italy MAY have peaked, I hope.

If we didn't have a vaccine on the way SOON (I hope), this whole situation would be beyond terrible.  The vaccine is our only realistic hope for any return to "normalcy".

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 22, 2020, 08:33:24 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 21, 2020, 11:49:06 PM
According to 847, I've got a cushy government job.  You see, sometimes, people let politics shield their pleasant demeanor and seem like an uncaring asshole. 


Luckily that'll never happen to you.
You have no idea about my political stance, and you don't need to know, so why even go there?

Not all teaching jobs are cushy, but many government jobs are. It's called a guaranteed paycheck, and Cadillac benefits to go along. Those in private sector are not guaranteed anything. Paychecks in that sector are based on work and performance. Most cannot work or perform in a shutdown. 

As an example, Illinois has shut down its public service facilities, such as the DMV. Those people will still get paid - to sit at home. Their public sector union says so.

If I shut down my business, my employees would be sitting at home. No paycheck. No benefits.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 22, 2020, 08:43:32 AM
I had a cushy job in the private sector.  Large companies start to resemble governments.

And when I left, they had two people replace me.  I still giggle about that, they even promoted one of them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 22, 2020, 08:55:09 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on November 22, 2020, 01:23:26 AM
This post is an improvement on your earlier work, but is still snarky. I prefer not to engage, but consider bringing down the snarkiness. Review your paragraph #1.  No excuses.
Are you new here?Evidently you miss or choose to ignore the barrage of bombast & folly from 320s intended target.And read 847s post - no excuses
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 22, 2020, 08:59:23 AM
One of the Georgia candidates for US Senate tested positive and then inconclusive.

I guess these folks have to be around a lot of people every day, but politicians seem to be catching it a lot and you'd think they'd be very cautious.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 22, 2020, 09:01:12 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 22, 2020, 08:43:32 AM
I had a cushy job in the private sector.  Large companies start to resemble governments.

And when I left, they had two people replace me.  I still giggle about that, they even promoted one of them.
Big corporate, sure. They are like government - minus the guarantees.

My brothers work for Allstate. Allstate just ran through a bunch of layoffs. They were worried.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 22, 2020, 09:05:06 AM
In my situation, I was waiting around for an offer to retire, it was lucrative.  I probably would have left in another year or two on my own with no offer.

I was miserable at work only consoled by having a decent paycheck.  Anyway, I'm comfortable now, and trying to avoid COVID and hoping the vaccine is available soonish.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 22, 2020, 09:16:36 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/i4o5wK2.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 22, 2020, 09:29:57 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 22, 2020, 09:01:12 AM
Big corporate, sure. They are like government - minus the guarantees.

My brothers work for Allstate. Allstate just ran through a bunch of layoffs. They were worried.
My company just performed a round of layoffs as well. The business was great in Q1, terrible in Q2 and Q3, and looking up in Q4.  But this was a long-term move, looking way down the line.  Supply chains are a complete mess right now and I don't see it getting better for another 9-12 months out.  Even huge, well-situated companies with vast reserves of cash like we have, are going to struggle to weather the coming storm.

2020 was just the beginning.  From a financial perspective, 2021 could be a lot worse.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 22, 2020, 10:18:19 AM
I asked a guy I know through homebrew circles who is an American expat in Wuhan what was really happening over there. I have little reason to believe official numbers coming out of China, but wanted at least to hear from someone who is local. 

Take it for what you will; I can't think of any reason he'd be lying to me...


Quote
I have experienced nothing that would indicate that the official story is anything other than true. My son's kindergarten closed for a couple days last week... for a chicken pox outbreak among the students. Naturally, there are fears that we'll have another wave, but my school has been in session face-to-face since September (which is when the semester starts every year), and while there are occasional flashes of worry like the government telling the school that we are not to have in-person parents' meetings this semester, it's almost entirely business as usual. The green code tracking system is still nominally in place and will definitely help if we have another wave, but I've been asked to scan my code once in the last month, going to a hospital to pick up a prescription.

As for preventing another wave (or preventing it from getting bad again), we've got the green code system in place, anyone who goes to the hospital with a fever gets a mandatory COVID test, and we've got experience with managing the shutdown - from food distribution to work-at-home and whatever else needs to happen. I can say with complete candor that I think Wuhan, in spite (and perhaps because) of being the epicenter of the outbreak, is one of the best-prepared places on the planet to fight or prevent another wave of COVID.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 22, 2020, 10:36:47 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 22, 2020, 09:29:57 AM


2020 was just the beginning.  From a financial perspective, 2021 could be a lot worse.


assuming the vaccine is available in 2 to 3 months Im not nearly as pessimistic 

By June there will be a huge rebound underway 

while it wont be all the way back to normal we should be much better off financially

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 22, 2020, 10:54:10 AM
will the vaccine be available in China?

Where the products are produced
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 22, 2020, 10:59:02 AM

Yes it has been for quite some time that's why there have been only 5,000 deaths in a country of over 1Bil.Don't believe me ask the CCP
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 22, 2020, 11:10:58 AM
Without an effective vaccine program, I shudder to think how bad this could get.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 22, 2020, 11:38:27 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 22, 2020, 10:59:02 AM
Yes it has been for quite some time that's why there have been only 5,000 deaths in a country of over 1Bil.Don't believe me ask the CCP
no sarcasm tags?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 22, 2020, 11:47:17 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 22, 2020, 10:54:10 AM
will the vaccine be available in China?

Where the products are produced
Im sure the vaccine will be shared with any country requesting it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 22, 2020, 11:50:49 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 22, 2020, 10:36:47 AM
assuming the vaccine is available in 2 to 3 months Im not nearly as pessimistic

By June there will be a huge rebound underway

while it wont be all the way back to normal we should be much better off financially


I make no such assumption but even if it is available in 3 months, it won't be widespread enough to avoid mass shutdowns of production lines.  I'm currently seeing it from our Chinese vendors, their production has slowed to a crawl.  That's not going to change in the next 6 months even with a vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 22, 2020, 11:56:30 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 22, 2020, 10:18:19 AM
I asked a guy I know through homebrew circles who is an American expat in Wuhan what was really happening over there. I have little reason to believe official numbers coming out of China, but wanted at least to hear from someone who is local.

Take it for what you will; I can't think of any reason he'd be lying to me...
That would be great if accurate,but has the message been edited?Or perhaps the earlier waves wiped out numbers unannounced - hard to say or what to believe
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 22, 2020, 12:08:21 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 22, 2020, 10:18:19 AM
I asked a guy I know through homebrew circles who is an American expat in Wuhan what was really happening over there. I have little reason to believe official numbers coming out of China, but wanted at least to hear from someone who is local.

Take it for what you will; I can't think of any reason he'd be lying to me...



Well, none of our manufacturing partners are in Wuhan, so I can't speak to that.

But there are major shortages of subtier components that are mostly Chinese, as well as incredibly slow production, for our products right now, from manufacturing lines all over the rest of China.  

And I think it's safe to say that "5,000" is a wildly unlikely number in a country of 1.5B.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 22, 2020, 12:41:24 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 22, 2020, 08:59:23 AM
One of the Georgia candidates for US Senate tested positive and then inconclusive.

I guess these folks have to be around a lot of people every day, but politicians seem to be catching it a lot and you'd think they'd be very cautious.


I'm guessing the politicians in China are very cautious
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 22, 2020, 12:54:24 PM
speaking of vaccines

https://nypost.com/2020/11/22/warp-speed-advisor-expects-covid-19-vaccine-to-ship-mid-december/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 22, 2020, 12:57:59 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 22, 2020, 12:51:24 PM
Its hard for me to have any compassion for the Chinese

While Im not wishing them ill I wonder if it might be a delayed good thing to have their production slowed down

maybe it will light a fire under our butts to find other ways of getting the goods we need

hell we might even start making it ourselves what a unique idea
People (a majority of them, not the exceptions, not your Uncle So-and-so) buy whatever's cheaper when quality is equal or nearly-equal.  

No one is going to buy the $10 thing when the $6 is just as good.  It's that simple.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 22, 2020, 01:21:14 PM
So are you saying American businesses are choosing to make the same goods more expensively? 

I was under the suspicion that there are laws and parameters in place that make it so, while China lacks such restraints.

You know, suicidal 8 year olds making our shoes and such.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 22, 2020, 01:23:36 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 22, 2020, 01:06:57 PM
OK whats the over under on how long OAMs thread has before its deleated

I say 10 minutes
Yes, that's called censorship.  And many here CAN'T LOOK THROUGH THE NAME MENTIONED AND SEE THE ACTUAL CONTENT OF THE POST.  It's about realistic lies instead of absurd lies that are immediately dismissed.  Grow up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 22, 2020, 01:28:40 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 22, 2020, 11:56:30 AM
That would be great if accurate,but has the message been edited?Or perhaps the earlier waves wiped out numbers unannounced - hard to say or what to believe
Quote from: utee94 on November 22, 2020, 12:08:21 PM
Well, none of our manufacturing partners are in Wuhan, so I can't speak to that.

But there are major shortages of subtier components that are mostly Chinese, as well as incredibly slow production, for our products right now, from manufacturing lines all over the rest of China. 

And I think it's safe to say that "5,000" is a wildly unlikely number in a country of 1.5B.
I doubt the message was edited... It was a private message through another forum, hosted (I believe) in the US. But as I said, I can't be sure whether to trust it. 

That said, I completely agree that I don't trust the 5K number for a second. The first wave could have been much higher than that. What interests me is more what is happening now though. 

The only think that could square the circle is they've got truly authoritarian lockdown controls [which of all countries, China is willing and capable of that] and they actually got it under control initially, AND they have an extremely robust contact tracing capability, AND they were initially dealing with the L strain and have successfully prevented importation of the G and its sub-variant strains from Europe... MAYBE they're doing ok.

But that wouldn't really help to understand why utee's supply chains are disrupted so badly. If people can actually go to work, it shouldn't be a labor issue. 

Just trying to piece together the puzzle, while being somewhat in the dark and unable to believe what I see re: the pieces... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 22, 2020, 01:34:00 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 22, 2020, 01:31:36 PM
you are 100% correct which makes it even more deplorable that we shift child abuse to the Chinese who it appears have no problem at all with it

Basically the children are slaves

Its ironic to me that we tolerate business connections with any country that does that

The NBA should be ashamed of themselves
Of the probably tens of thousands of business entities that do  business with China, you single out the NBA.  Tell us why.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 22, 2020, 01:38:04 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 22, 2020, 01:28:40 PM
I doubt the message was edited... It was a private message through another forum, hosted (I believe) in the US. But as I said, I can't be sure whether to trust it.
It would be subject to sensorship if mailed inside of the so called People's Republic.There you have freedom of speech - in the West you have freedom after speech......for the most part
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 22, 2020, 01:48:43 PM
Maybe we could stick to discussing COVID in THIS thread, please?

It's a topic of interest to us all and someone can find on occasion something important and informative.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 22, 2020, 02:22:40 PM
Can we skip this stupid bickering? We all know who started it, and yet everyone's rushing to take the bait.

Whether or not we can trust the CCP's self-reported COVID case and death numbers is relevant in this thread.

Any other liars are not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 22, 2020, 02:27:25 PM
Speaking of censorship, this thread is apolitical and meant to be about COVID.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 22, 2020, 02:34:01 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 22, 2020, 02:27:25 PM
Speaking of censorship, this thread is apolitical and meant to be about COVID.
sorry I contributed to a lot of that crap

I should know better

Ive always been a type A personality and sometimes it jumps out
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 22, 2020, 06:00:53 PM
France has come WAY down, the other EU countries appear to have peaked but they are not down nearly as clearly as France.

I don't have a clue why.

Everything in the US is going higher.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 22, 2020, 07:25:42 PM
Today was Minnesota's first day in the 10% positives in three weeks. Also, record high volume of tests run.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 22, 2020, 07:51:24 PM
Just to note, any thread not relevant to COVID and is political will get clipped without notice.

And yes, I know the topic has political aspects to it.  Take it elsewhere.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 22, 2020, 09:29:37 PM
Denial isn't just the longest river in Africa. 

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/11/19/npr-covid-19-denial-still-rampant-in-some-virus-hotspots
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on November 23, 2020, 12:24:24 AM
It's starting to impact my extended family. Active cases I know of, or which are fairly certain: My wife's 93-year old aunt. My wife's sister, and having spoken to her Husband by phone the other day constantly coughing - I am quite sure he has it, and one of my 1st cousins who is about 70-years old is hospitalized with it. My wife has a cousin whose spouse has it and we suspect her cousin spread it to her aunt and probably had it.
It is to the point here in NE Iowa that I think we are more likely to get it than to avoid it. I reported here earlier I tested positive in October, and I am quite isolated.
The governor put out a mask mandate a few days ago, but I noticed in Wal-Mart someone not adhering to it. And we have people dying from it here, and that has affected my law practice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 23, 2020, 09:03:17 AM
Latest numbers from Florida:

97,881 tests
6,435 positive
6.57% positive

Hospitalizations are down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 23, 2020, 09:05:24 AM
Looks like Wisconsin has peaked. 7 day average has been trending down for about a week now. Today's reporting will be interesting. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 23, 2020, 09:26:14 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/fDK9PQc.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 23, 2020, 09:56:02 AM
When it comes to vaccines that are 90% effective against a disease, the more the merrier.

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1330851991665381378?s=20
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Temp430 on November 23, 2020, 10:00:14 AM
Two kids returning home from college from hot zones for Thanksgiving. Rather than trying to implement some kind of futile half assed quarantine inside our home the wife and I will live life as normal.  After being in isolation at home for a week we’ll get the kids PCR tested per local regulations so they can go out and get it from thier friends.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 23, 2020, 10:00:35 AM
For @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) 

https://scitechdaily.com/aerodynamics-of-infectious-disease-airflow-studies-reveal-strategies-to-reduce-indoor-transmission-of-covid-19/ 

It's not particle filtration, but they're studying how it spreads most effectively in enclosed spaces and how to mitigate that. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 23, 2020, 10:02:25 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on November 23, 2020, 12:24:24 AM
The governor put out a mask mandate a few days ago, but I noticed in Wal-Mart someone not adhering to it. And we have people dying from it here, and that has affected my law practice.
pretty sure the Governor's mandate stated no barstools.  This is my local bar in Sioux City yesterday


(https://i.imgur.com/3RzUxeO.jpg)
Yes, my schooner on the bar in front of me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 23, 2020, 10:03:07 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 23, 2020, 10:00:35 AM
For @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15)

https://scitechdaily.com/aerodynamics-of-infectious-disease-airflow-studies-reveal-strategies-to-reduce-indoor-transmission-of-covid-19/

It's not particle filtration, but they're studying how it spreads most effectively in enclosed spaces and how to mitigate that.
Very interesting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 23, 2020, 10:04:28 AM
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.siouxlanddistricthealth.org%2Fimages%2Fstories%2Fpdfs%2Fdocman%2FCOVID-19%2FCumulative_Weekly_New_Hospital_Admissions_Curve_11-15-20.png&hash=8badda526ef3b0a98b590c39e047559a)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 23, 2020, 10:07:59 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 23, 2020, 10:00:35 AM
For @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15)

https://scitechdaily.com/aerodynamics-of-infectious-disease-airflow-studies-reveal-strategies-to-reduce-indoor-transmission-of-covid-19/

It's not particle filtration, but they're studying how it spreads most effectively in enclosed spaces and how to mitigate that.

Awesome thanks for sharing.  Yeah, I'm not tied specifically to filtration, but it's definitely good to see work being put into understanding how the spread occurs indoors, and how we can mitigate the risks.

It's interesting that they refer to musical instruments.  My daughter's middle school band issued coverings for various instruments that have horns or bells at the end, including her French horn's bell.   It does very little to mute or alter the tone, although for a French horn specifically, there must be a hole in it for the placement of your hand.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 23, 2020, 10:21:32 AM
I did a bit of work on filtration a while back, it's not as simple as just "interception" because pores are smaller than the filtrate, though that is a factor of course.

Electrostatics offer some additional capability if the charge is maintained constantly (and if the filtrate is charged of course).

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 23, 2020, 10:34:28 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 02, 2020, 10:36:10 AM
5 weeks is important, as that's basically when we saw the cases turn.

So go back 3 weeks. That's Oct 12. (Sorry, should be Oct 11 as I was assuming 3 weeks from Nov 2 and don't want to retype everything below).

Oct 12 we had a daily 7-day MA case rate of about 50.7K. 2 weeks prior to that (to get to the 5 week total) on Sep 28 we had a 7-day MA case rate of 41.7K. That's a 21.5% increase.

Now, because we know there's a roughly 3 week lag between cases and deaths, we compare today's 7-day MA against the 7-day MA two weeks ago.

Nov 1 we have a 7-day MA for deaths of 851. Two weeks prior (Oct 18) was 726. That's a 17.2% increase.

So we don't have quite a proportional rise in deaths (at this point), as only about 80% of new cases seem to convert into a rise in deaths.

But... We look at Oct 12 and we had 50.7K cases (7-day MA). Yesterday that number moved up to 82.7K. That's a 63.1% increase in the past 3 weeks. If the same 80% number holds, we should see a 50.5% increase in deaths by Nov 22.

So my prediction for the 7-day MA of daily death rate, on Nov 22, is that we'll be at about 1281/day.

Let's revisit in 3 weeks and see if that holds...
Turns out I was quite low.

It is 1547/day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 23, 2020, 10:51:03 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 23, 2020, 10:34:28 AM
Turns out I was quite low.

It is 1547/day.
only because the increase in cases was quite a bit higher then projected

so far deaths remain below the assumed 1.85% of positive cases previously experienced

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 23, 2020, 10:59:22 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 23, 2020, 10:51:03 AM
only because the increase in cases was quite a bit higher then projected

so far deaths remain below the assumed 1.85% of positive cases previously experienced


Yes, the death rates are dropping here too. The peak was in the summer.

60% of the cases are in 7 counties, as would be expected. Dade is the worst - 23% of all Florida cases are there, and 21% of deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 23, 2020, 11:21:38 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 23, 2020, 10:51:03 AM
only because the increase in cases was quite a bit higher then projected

so far deaths remain below the assumed 1.85% of positive cases previously experienced
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 23, 2020, 10:59:22 AM
Yes, the death rates are dropping here too. The peak was in the summer.

60% of the cases are in 7 counties, as would be expected. Dade is the worst - 23% of all Florida cases are there, and 21% of deaths.
In the summer, the cases (7-day MA) peaked about July 25 at 70289, and the deaths peaked about Aug 4, at 1181. That's a death rate of ~1.68%. The cases had actually plateaued at roughly that level a week or so before July 25, and the deaths had plateauded about 3-4 days prior to Aug 4, so those were fairly stable numbers.

This one is harder to tell because cases were rising sharply at the point I did my analysis, not plateaued. On Nov 1 we had a daily case (7 day MA) of 84030. The Nov 22 death rate of 1547 is about a 1.84% death rate as measured against the case rate 3 weeks ago. 

Now, it's possible that some of those 1547 were due to the high jump in cases between Nov 1 and Nov 8--After all my dates of July 25->Aug 4 was closer to 2 weeks than 3. Nov 8 was at a 7-day MA of 112630. 1547 against that would be 1.37%.

I think it's fair to somewhat split the difference and state that the death rate is showing no statistically significant differences between the summer spike and now. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 23, 2020, 11:33:36 AM
As our Gov Abbott recently said its not possible to support a lockdown when over 98% of the folks testing positive recover

He believes masks and safe distancing is the answer
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 23, 2020, 11:33:46 AM
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771761

I see some folks persisting in calling this entire thing a hoax, it's something they view as barely worth notice, just a mild flu or something.  They concoct doctored statistics of course, FB memes, it's pretty disgusting to me.

Previous studies of excess deaths (the gap between observed and expected deaths) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic found that publicly reported COVID-19 deaths underestimated the full death toll, which includes documented and undocumented deaths from the virus and non–COVID-19 deaths caused by disruptions from the pandemic.1 (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771761#jld200106r1),2 (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771761#jld200106r2) A previous analysis found that COVID-19 was cited in only 65% of excess deaths in the first weeks of the pandemic (March-April 2020); deaths from non–COVID-19 causes (eg, Alzheimer disease, diabetes, heart disease) increased sharply in 5 states with the most COVID-19 deaths.1 (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771761#jld200106r1) This study updates through August 1, 2020, the estimate of excess deaths and explores temporal relationships with state reopenings (lifting of coronavirus restrictions).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 23, 2020, 12:04:23 PM
so, for the guy who isn't great with math or memory..........

how many total deaths the past few years, and how many total deaths this year?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 23, 2020, 12:10:49 PM
Between March 1 and August 1, 2020, 1 336 561 deaths occurred in the US, a 20% increase over expected deaths (1 111 031 [95% CI, 1 110 364 to 1 111 697]). The 10 states with the highest per capita rate of excess deaths were New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Louisiana, Arizona, Mississippi, Maryland, Delaware, Rhode Island, and Michigan. The states with the highest per capita rate of excess deaths changed from week to week (Video (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771761#jld200106video1)). The increase in absolute deaths in these states relative to expected values ranged from 22% in Rhode Island and Michigan to 65% in New York (Table (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771761#jld200106t1)). Three states with the highest death rates (New Jersey, New York, and Massachusetts) accounted for 30% of US excess deaths but had the shortest epidemics (ED90 < 10 weeks). States that experienced acute surges in April (and reopened later) had shorter epidemics that returned to baseline in May, whereas states that reopened earlier experienced more protracted increases in excess deaths that extended into the summer (Figure (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771761#jld200106f1)).

Of the 225 530 excess deaths, 150 541 (67%) were attributed to COVID-19. Joinpoint analyses revealed an increase in deaths attributed to causes other than COVID-19, with 2 reaching statistical significance. US mortality rates for heart disease increased between weeks ending March 21 and April 11 (APC, 5.1 [95% CI, 0.2-10.2]), driven by the spring surge in COVID-19 cases. Mortality rates for Alzheimer disease/dementia increased twice, between weeks ending March 21 and April 11 (APC, 7.3 [95% CI, 2.9-11.8]) and between weeks ending June 6 and July 25 (APC, 1.5 [95% CI, 0.8-2.3]), the latter coinciding with the summer surge in sunbelt states.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 23, 2020, 12:22:13 PM
I don't think the March-August data tells enough of the story.  I'm more interested in the total deaths for the entire year of 2020, compared to average or expected deaths from other years' annual data.

Since this virus obviously has worse outcomes for the elderly and infirm, I suspect we'll find that many of the COVID deaths are actually deaths that have been pulled-ahead in time by 6-12 months.  Especially when we see the nursing homes get hit so hard, and average life expectancy of nursing home patients is very short once they enter the facility.  

I'm not suggesting that their lives matter any less, but from a scientific perspective, we know this isn't ripping through young and healthy populations with severely negative outcomes, so it's reasonable to expect that much of its effect is a pull-ahead.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 23, 2020, 12:23:30 PM
so, perhaps we have more total deaths than usual this year, but less total deaths than usual next year?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 23, 2020, 12:27:11 PM
To the extent this has "thinned the herd", death totals could go down in the future.  The death toll in the US is remarkably constant year over year, and is up about 300,000 this year (last I looked), from 2 million expected (12 months).

So, IF that 300,000 was going to die in the next 2-3 years (significantly), we might see a reduction, but it might be 50,000 a year or so, maybe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 23, 2020, 12:29:51 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 23, 2020, 12:23:30 PM
so, perhaps we have more total deaths than usual this year, but less total deaths than usual next year?
Yes, that is what I am speculating.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on November 23, 2020, 02:00:02 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 20, 2020, 01:18:43 PM
Brilliant.
Thank you for the compliment. Really surprised you thought so. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on November 23, 2020, 02:05:09 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 20, 2020, 02:19:37 PM

Remember, the question about changing your behavior is NOT simply to avoid contracting the virus.

I'm 42, in moderately good shape, have a perfectly clean bill of health, and other than carrying a few extra pounds, not at high risk of severe complications from COVID.

I change my behavior to avoid the virus so that tomorrow, for example, when we have my 65-year old father in law with an autoimmune disorder over for "Fake Thanksgiving" with the kids, the risk of him being exposed to the virus and it being MY fault is minimized.

I hope that low-risk people in Colorado are taking precautions, because my 78-year-old parents live in a senior community there, and my mom has heart problems and already needs oxygen, and my dad is severely obese, and if they get COVID, I'd put the odds at better than even that I'd lose one of them at least.

The better job that all of us lower-risk do at minimizing the spread, the better we are able to protect the vulnerable. That doesn't mean you lock yourself in a basement until the vaccine appears. But it doesn't mean do nothing either.



So maybe I can correct myself somewhat.  I do not visit my 80 year mother with a compromised immune system as much as I use to and keep my distance when I do. My mother does not go out and I have her groceries delivered to her. only time she goes out is for doctor appointments. Again, I have no desire to spread the virus, but I am not worried about the consequences of getting it and I expect those that are in danger from the virus be responsible and self-isolate.  And if they do, they are in no danger from me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 23, 2020, 02:14:28 PM
If R naught is above 1.0 and WE individually contract COVID, we're likely to pass it on to more people, who also may be young etc.  But it leads to spread and that will eventually find it's way to folks who aren't in such good shape.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 23, 2020, 03:20:09 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on November 23, 2020, 02:05:09 PM
So maybe I can correct myself somewhat.  I do not visit my 80 year mother with a compromised immune system as much as I use to and keep my distance when I do. My mother does not go out and I have her groceries delivered to her. only time she goes out is for doctor appointments. Again, I have no desire to spread the virus, but I am not worried about the consequences of getting it and I expect those that are in danger from the virus be responsible and self-isolate.  And if they do, they are in no danger from me.
Thanks for the correction. I see a lot of responses in this thing of "I'm not going to change anything because I ain't scared of it" which comes off as callous when you consider it from the point of view of who you could be passing the virus to, rather than your own concern about its effects on you. I didn't want to accuse you of such, both because it would be incredibly rude, but also because I think a lot of people are doing exactly what you're doing--trying to live their lives but with a heightened concern for [and modifying behavior for] the vulnerable people in their lives. 


Quote from: Cincydawg on November 23, 2020, 02:14:28 PM
If R naught is above 1.0 and WE individually contract COVID, we're likely to pass it on to more people, who also may be young etc.  But it leads to spread and that will eventually find it's way to folks who aren't in such good shape.
Exactly. How does it go again? "If you're around someone with COVID, then you've had sex with everyone they've ever had COVID with?" 

Or something like that?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 23, 2020, 04:37:39 PM
Some potentially silver lining out of all this:

https://www.cato.org/blog/business-startups-soar

(https://i.imgur.com/H4I1jGe.png)

Now, this has a bit of "broken window fallacy" to it. Obviously it is horrible that many of these people are starting businesses because they're forced to--they fell out of work in other ways due to the restrictions or natural economic dislocation of a pandemic.

That said, new business creation tends to have long-term growth benefits. While many industries are dominated by large entrenched businesses, it's often difficult for those large entrenched businesses to invent anything truly revolutionary from within. The corporate culture is much more incremental improvement, not disruptive innovation. After all, who wants to disrupt their own gravy train, right? So startups that do something that is truly new and disruptive either get acquired by the larger players who can exploit that technology more readily, or start to supplant those larger players if they can grow by themselves. 

Most of these new businesses will be small; most of these new businesses will fail. But if this pandemic kicked someone with a revolutionary idea off the "fence" to actually turn it into reality when they had nothing to lose, it could be beneficial for all of us down the road.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 23, 2020, 05:10:32 PM
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/11/17/936055284/fda-approves-first-at-home-coronavirus-test?fbclid=IwAR0AxlD90-eDqFIMOXtLc2_UnCgi-IgyaapFCs2LI6wQbLx1OtsB6J90PPc
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 24, 2020, 08:30:34 AM
Wisconsin looking much better now.

(https://i.imgur.com/rPg6bo7.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 24, 2020, 11:28:22 AM
Nationally, the 7-day MA on cases appears to be cresting. 

Personally, I think that's just the calm before the Thanksgiving-fueled storm, but hopefully I'm wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 24, 2020, 11:39:37 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 24, 2020, 11:28:22 AM
Nationally, the 7-day MA on cases appears to be cresting.

Personally, I think that's just the calm before the Thanksgiving-fueled storm, but hopefully I'm wrong.
I hope you are wrong too.

People seem to be taking this seriously again. Outside of some yahoos, I believe this will not be a big spreader weekend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 24, 2020, 11:46:02 AM
the state of Iowa is full of yahoos

most people I talk to are having large gatherings
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 24, 2020, 12:03:00 PM
Not smart.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 24, 2020, 12:09:07 PM
my ex-mother in-law is 90 years old, really wants to have 10-12 people for dinner as usual.

From 6-7 households

my daughters have been trying to talk her out of it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 24, 2020, 12:10:24 PM
I hear reports that air travel is up considerably, which suggests this could be a bad week down the road.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 24, 2020, 12:11:44 PM
yup, many people are over this pandemic and going back to normal

well, except they are wearing masks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 24, 2020, 12:13:17 PM
We were originally going to go to Oregon this year for Thanksgiving, as we did with that little short getaway in July. The idea being that we're trying to be pretty safe down here in SoCal, and my wife's mom and stepdad up there are being pretty safe, so if we hang out together it's still mostly safe and shouldn't cause spread (or if it does, it's VERY limited because there were only four of us in the household for those 4.5 days). 

We decided not to go because we knew there would be a 20+ person Thanksgiving gathering. If they had restricted it only to us, them, and my brother-in-law's family (who are mostly isolating too, living out in the country), I think it would be mostly safe. But once they all got roped into the traditional big event, it became a big-time no. And we were proven right; they moved it to my brother-in-law's house, but my mother-in-law is still getting roped into not only cooking for everyone but they're going to be there, so out of guilt they're taking a significant risk. 

I think that's a lot of it this year. People don't want to anger their families by taking a year off from the tradition, so even those people who don't want to be a part of it will end up being a part of it to avoid rocking the boat.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 24, 2020, 12:14:09 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 24, 2020, 12:11:44 PM
yup, many people are over this pandemic and going back to normal

well, except they are wearing masks
They're not going to be wearing their masks in a house with their extended family. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 24, 2020, 12:16:18 PM
no

I was thinking huge crowds of people filing through airports
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 24, 2020, 12:18:42 PM
My concern at this point is that I send my kids back to their mom tomorrow morning. I'm fairly sure that my ex's family will be doing the big traditional Thanksgiving dinner, with the whole crew. And my ex traveled by plane this past weekend while I had the kids, so she might be a vector of spread just by herself.

However I've already set the precedent that if COVID hits either household, the kids stay exactly where they are regardless of custody schedule for two weeks, from the final positive test of any adult/child. So at least if they end up all getting it, I don't have to then introduce the kids back to threaten my household until it's fully cleared.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 24, 2020, 12:19:17 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 24, 2020, 12:13:17 PM
I think that's a lot of it this year. People don't want to anger their families by taking a year off from the tradition, so even those people who don't want to be a part of it will end up being a part of it to avoid rocking the boat.
yes, I told my daughters to tell their grandmother that they would not attend a dinner for 8 or more people.

if the other 8 people would tell grandma this, she wouldn't be hosting this dinner, but no one wants to hurt grandma's feelings so..........
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 24, 2020, 12:20:03 PM
Warnings from public health officials not to travel for Thanksgiving didn't stop passengers from packing US airports and planes this weekend.
From Friday to Sunday, more than 3 million people (https://www.cnn.com/business/us-economic-recovery-coronavirus#Your Leisure) passed through airport security checkpoints in the United States — a record weekend for air travel since the pandemic hit in March. Sunday was the biggest day for air travel since March 16, with 1.05 million people screened.
US health officials have pleaded with the American public not to travel for the Thanksgiving holiday (http://www.cnn.com/2020/11/19/health/cdc-thanksgiving-travel-wellness-bn/index.html) this week as new Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths (https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/23/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html) soar. Friday saw a one-day record of 196,000 new US cases, according to Johns Hopkins.
The airlines say that the cleaning procedures used between flights, the exchange of fresh air in the cabin throughout flights and the hospital-quality air filters now used on planes make it safe to fly (http://www.cnn.com/travel/article/air-travel-risk-covid-19-wellness/index.html). The airlines also require passengers to wear masks (http://www.cnn.com/travel/article/airlines-face-masks-passengers/index.html).


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 24, 2020, 12:21:29 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 24, 2020, 12:16:18 PM
no

I was thinking huge crowds of people filing through airports
Ahh, yeah.

BTW I actually think the individual risk of air travel isn't all that significant right now. As long as everyone's wearing the mask [properly], and as long as you're not seated right next to someone contagious for a cross-continent or cross-oceanic flight, it's unlikely that you'll have a problem. 

However I think the societal risk of air travel + unmasked family gatherings is going to give R0 a big bump. Many states suggest that people who travel should self-quarantine for 14 days, and I sure as hell know that ain't gonna happen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 24, 2020, 12:21:45 PM
The airlines also require passengers to wear masks.

there ya go

we're all safe
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 24, 2020, 12:26:03 PM
I worry less about the air travel than what people are going to do wherever they go.  They aren't flying in general for some small group.  And then on Sunday they get back on planes to go home.

I worry about THAT return trip some.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 24, 2020, 12:36:33 PM
Post-holiday testing is going to boom.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on November 24, 2020, 01:01:11 PM
We aren't doing any extended family Thanksgiving or Christmas.  It sucks.  We didn't see my family for Christmas last year, because my dad was having knee replacement on 12/27, so they didn't want to host or travel, and 4 of us siblings are spread out.  Since then they've seen their grandchildren once, in August, when we did a day trip and had a cookout.

By next summer it will have been about 19 months since they've seen them.  When you are talking about small children, that's eons.  My younger one had just turned 4, and will be nearly 6.  But nobody is putting up a fight.  You can't jam 12 people into a house for a 4 day weekend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 24, 2020, 01:19:01 PM
Quote from: ELA on November 24, 2020, 01:01:11 PM
We aren't doing any extended family Thanksgiving or Christmas.  It sucks.  We didn't see my family for Christmas last year, because my dad was having knee replacement on 12/27, so they didn't want to host or travel, and 4 of us siblings are spread out.  Since then they've seen their grandchildren once, in August, when we did a day trip and had a cookout.

By next summer it will have been about 19 months since they've seen them.  When you are talking about small children, that's eons.  My younger one had just turned 4, and will be nearly 6.  But nobody is putting up a fight.  You can't jam 12 people into a house for a 4 day weekend.
Well, you could, but everyone would have to test a week prior and then quarantine. Not everyone can do that though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 24, 2020, 01:26:34 PM


If you fly out the weekend before TG and home the weekend after, it is busy as all get out. But if you fly out on Tuesday, and return home on Monday, it's a ghost town. 

Either way, it's exactly one week off of work. Been doing that trick for years. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 24, 2020, 01:27:30 PM
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on November 24, 2020, 01:26:34 PM

If you fly out the weekend before TG and home the weekend after, it is busy as all get out. But if you fly out on Tuesday, and return home on Monday, it's a ghost town.

Either way, it's exactly one week off of work. Been doing that trick for years.
Cheaper too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 24, 2020, 01:55:13 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 24, 2020, 12:21:29 PM
Ahh, yeah.

BTW I actually think the individual risk of air travel isn't all that significant right now. 
Really - I dunno before covid many on this board mentioned getting illness presumably from other passangers and the recirculating air on board.I've not had covid YET that I know of but I wouldn't get on a flight.Unless it was CD in his old crop duster and we were headed to a board meeting
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 24, 2020, 01:57:05 PM
whenever packed into an airport or on a plane for extended periods of time within 2-3 feet of others, there's significant risk of transmission of bacteria and virus
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on November 24, 2020, 02:12:16 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 24, 2020, 01:19:01 PM
Well, you could, but everyone would have to test a week prior and then quarantine. Not everyone can do that though.
And that's the issue.  My mom works in a hospital, so she can't, our schools only just closed this week, so my son and wife were still going in; and my SIL is an essential worker
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 24, 2020, 02:19:31 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 24, 2020, 01:55:13 PM
Really - I dunno before covid many on this board mentioned getting illness presumably from other passangers and the recirculating air on board.I've not had covid YET that I know of but I wouldn't get on a flight.Unless it was CD in his old crop duster and we were headed to a board meeting
Before COVID nobody was wearing masks on planes... So that's a big change now.

There was a recent study [paid for by the airlines, so discount it if you'd like] saying that with masks, distancing, and the relatively robust and air exchange on airplanes--which is passed through medical-grade filters, it's not particularly high risk.

That's counterintuitive, of course, given that our brains think we're just cooped up inside a sealed metal tube breathing each others' germs and that must be dangerous, but I assume their air filtration is really quite good. 

Of course, the below link also refers to a 7 1/2 hour flight to Ireland that was the source of an outbreak, so maybe the airline-sponsored studies are missing something lol...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2020/10/27/safe-to-fly-during-covid-19-pandemic-reports-differ/6041206002/

Personally I wouldn't get on an airplane for pleasure travel at this point. It would have to be critically necessary travel. But if it came down to it, I doubt my risk of contracting COVID would be that substantially higher than many other activities.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 24, 2020, 02:47:00 PM
I have gotten sick after nearly every 8+ hour plane flight I've been on over the past few years, nearly every time.  I started being very attentive to hand hygiene of late, before the COVID thing.  And I might be catching whatever in the airport of course, or in the country because I'm not up to speed with their germs.  If I use the head, I really clean up when I get back to my seat, gel on hands and wipe down surfaces in seating area.  A less than two hour flight I wouldn't get up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 24, 2020, 02:47:49 PM
Redeye is the way I would probably travel now, if I had to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 24, 2020, 03:05:17 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 24, 2020, 02:47:00 PM
I have gotten sick after nearly every 8+ hour plane flight I've been on over the past few years, nearly every time.  I started being very attentive to hand hygiene of late, before the COVID thing.  And I might be catching whatever in the airport of course, or in the country because I'm not up to speed with their germs.  If I use the head, I really clean up when I get back to my seat, gel on hands and wipe down surfaces in seating area.  A less than two hour flight I wouldn't get up.
I wonder how much of it is your immune system. Like most parents, I spent about 6-12 months once my kids started preschool getting sick every two weeks, but now have an immune system of steel. Add to that that I spent the better part of a decade on an airplane no less than once a month, and it built up a lot more immunity. I don't get sick, pretty much ever. My wife ran into the same thing when she started working in the medical field--spent the first six months sick regularly, then didn't get sick pretty much ever. Until she met my kids, of course. Then it was another 6+ months for her because children are disgusting.  

If you're retired, and generally not around grubby little disgusting children much, your immune system might not be used to action lol...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 24, 2020, 03:12:07 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 24, 2020, 02:19:31 PM
Before COVID nobody was wearing masks on planes... So that's a big change now.

There was a recent study [paid for by the airlines, so discount it if you'd like] saying that with masks, distancing, and the relatively robust and air exchange on airplanes--which is passed through medical-grade filters, it's not particularly high risk.

distancing on the aircraft?

Only one passenger per row?
That would help.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 24, 2020, 03:18:21 PM
Yeah, it obviously is in part my immune system coupled with taking far more 8+ hour flights than I once did.  I was really trying to keep my hands and surfaces around me and the wife clean thinking I was contacting something and rubbing my eye or nose.  I'm also older, I don't get sick here very often at all.

I do recall how I'd get sick when the kids started preschool and then that abated over time.  T cells etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 24, 2020, 03:41:54 PM
The last redeye I was on was our long flight from Detroit to Frankfurt. Ever wandered through the Frankfurt airport on little sleep at 5 in the morning?

Actually, with tailwinds, I don't think that flight was 8 hours in the air. The last 8 hour flight I was on was FRA-ORD, which was then followed by our faithful re-enactment of the infamous Home Alone Spring Across O'Hare in order to get our puddle jumper back to DTW. Before that, it was nonstop flights to Hawaii a couple of times when I was a kid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 24, 2020, 04:02:10 PM
Getting back to the COVID discussion:

Possible glimmers of hope are emerging in the state's data. Both positives, percent positives, and active cases seem to have hit a peak early last week, and that things have been in some sort of uneasy steady state since. 

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/11/24/latest-on-covid-in-mn?fbclid=IwAR29PCK2Hwzk_O0pjtFJ72Rb0UMrVCHb2Y-VQsWSNGCXIhVGgDO-TC2Ru4Q
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 24, 2020, 04:05:46 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/SThDW4q.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 24, 2020, 04:07:25 PM
Wisconsin

(https://i.imgur.com/tcBCxyg.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 24, 2020, 04:46:43 PM
Remember the couple my wife is the matron of honor for their wedding? The one where the groom-to-be tested positive and is now in bed hacking his lungs out? Well, sure enough, she started to show symptoms this weekend, and tested positive this morning.

The timeline matches up nicely with the infographic posted here a few pages ago. 

-They last saw each other Sunday the 15th. 
-He has been flying for work.
-They both tested negative last Tuesday. 
-He got sick at the end of last week
-Sunday she started to show symptoms. She was swabbed yesterday and got word of the positive test today.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 24, 2020, 05:13:18 PM
gonna be a shit show after Thanksgiving

gonna F up Xmas for sure
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 24, 2020, 05:52:48 PM
Well, we feared we would look like Europe, and now this may make us look worse.

And BE worse.  We need the vaccine.  Duh.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on November 24, 2020, 06:29:08 PM
Governor of WV has already mandated all schools be virtual the week after Thanksgiving in anticipation of a Covid spike. He’s sort of an idiot but probably making a wise decision here.

This might be happening in most states though. Idk.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 24, 2020, 06:36:38 PM
Most schools in Minnesota will be on full distance learning until at least the Christmas break. I know someone on the Duluth school board, and they will be out until at least Martin Luther King Jr. Day. I don't expect either athletics to start back up or schools even back in hybrid until at least then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 24, 2020, 07:15:43 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on November 24, 2020, 04:02:10 PM
Getting back to the COVID discussion:

Possible glimmers of hope are emerging in the state's data. Both positives, percent positives, and active cases seem to have hit a peak early last week, and that things have been in some sort of uneasy steady state since.

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/11/24/latest-on-covid-in-mn?fbclid=IwAR29PCK2Hwzk_O0pjtFJ72Rb0UMrVCHb2Y-VQsWSNGCXIhVGgDO-TC2Ru4Q
Fantastic.
Optimism in pretending Thanksgiving isn't about to happen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 24, 2020, 07:17:58 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 24, 2020, 05:52:48 PM
Well, we feared we would look like Europe, and now this may make us look worse.

And BE worse.  We need the vaccine.  Duh.
How could we possibly look worse?  
We're the best!
We have the best medical system in the world!
We have......4% of the population and 20% of the cases.
Wait, what?!
That can't be right...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on November 24, 2020, 10:20:23 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 24, 2020, 07:17:58 PM
How could we possibly look worse? 
We're the best!
We have the best medical system in the world!
We have......4% of the population and 20% of the cases.
Wait, what?!
That can't be right...
102 international airports
Four of the 10 busiest airports in the world
850 million domestic airline passengers a year
More foreigners travel into the US than any other country in the world
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 24, 2020, 10:28:33 PM


It could be a lot worse... 


(https://www.kingfisherpress.net/sites/kingfisherpress.etypegoogle10.com/files/styles/medium/public/wthanksgivingcali.jpg?itok=m03c-HzB)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 25, 2020, 01:37:06 AM
Quote from: Kris60 on November 24, 2020, 10:20:23 PM
102 international airports
Four of the 10 busiest airports in the world
850 million domestic airline passengers a year
More foreigners travel into the US than any other country in the world

I see a lot of optional travel here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 25, 2020, 01:38:05 AM
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on November 24, 2020, 10:28:33 PM

It could be a lot worse...


(https://www.kingfisherpress.net/sites/kingfisherpress.etypegoogle10.com/files/styles/medium/public/wthanksgivingcali.jpg?itok=m03c-HzB)


Yeah, it could.  You could be living in a state with a negligent parent, instead.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 25, 2020, 06:55:52 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 25, 2020, 01:38:05 AM
Yeah, it could.  You could be living in a state with a negligent parent, instead.
I left a State full of negligent parents. 

Do you really want the government to be your parent?

You could help reverse the wave from California to Arizona!! Do it! Move to LA.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 25, 2020, 07:00:36 AM
France is WAY down, and her neighbors appear to have peaked and be trending down (not as fast as France).

A near full lock down with schools remaining open appears to be working in France.  SO, perhaps schools are not the/a major means of transmission.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 25, 2020, 07:02:40 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 25, 2020, 07:00:36 AM
France is WAY down, and her neighbors appear to have peaked and be trending down (not as fast as France).

A near full lock down with schools remaining open appears to be working in France.  SO, perhaps schools are not the/a major means of transmission.
Don't tell the teachers that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 25, 2020, 08:11:33 AM
The receptionist at physical therapy has plans to fly to Cleveland today or tomorrow.  She overheard me and the therapist talking about travel and how neither of us would get on a plane short of an emergency (the idea of a red eye is a good one).  She piped up and said "Y'all are scaring me now."

Our step son plans to visit for a month in a couple weeks from SF.  He has been working from home anyway, and I think he's a bit stir crazy.  I'm glad he's coming, and not glad at the same time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 25, 2020, 08:25:48 AM
Well CD if he's following the Governor's Diretives that pertain to everyone but the Governor,you should be fine
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 25, 2020, 08:48:30 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 25, 2020, 07:00:36 AM
France is WAY down, and her neighbors appear to have peaked and be trending down (not as fast as France).

A near full lock down with schools remaining open appears to be working in France.  SO, perhaps schools are not the/a major means of transmission.
perhaps

believe the data!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 25, 2020, 08:49:55 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 25, 2020, 08:48:30 AM
perhaps

believe the data!
Trust The Science!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on November 25, 2020, 08:55:20 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 25, 2020, 01:37:06 AM
I see a lot of optional travel here.
I’m sure that is true, probably from US citizens and non-US citizens into the country. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 25, 2020, 09:00:17 AM
I don't think it's "science" that says the infection rate is down a lot in France while noting they did not close their schools.  It's just data.  I suppose one would think of statistics as probably being a science, perhaps maybe.

What is the probability of that?

I have not calculated it Captain.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 25, 2020, 09:04:08 AM
Well, get on with it already.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 25, 2020, 09:30:49 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 25, 2020, 09:00:17 AM
I don't think it's "science" that says the infection rate is down a lot in France while noting they did not close their schools.  It's just data.  I suppose one would think of statistics as probably being a science, perhaps maybe.

What is the probability of that?

I have not calculated it Captain.
I can't speak for France, but the "science" part of this virus not transmitting much in schools, is associated with children's viral load and capability of spreading it, versus that of adults.  There's also the science of mask-wearing and social distancing that is occurring within the school walls, and which appears to be helping.

Since so many school districts are currently pondering maintaining online-only after the Tday holiday, you'd think that the mainstream media would be trumpeting loudly, the low risk of kids being in school in-person.  I find it quite curious that they are not running these stories 24/7 right now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 25, 2020, 09:34:55 AM
I obviously try and draw conclusions from how other countries experience this pandemic, so when I see France keeping schools open AND showing a dramatic decline in  reported cases, I tentatively conclude schools are not a major transmission vector.  They have shuttered bars, restaurants, barber shops, gyms, and the like, and you need permission to move around more than 1 km from your house.  It's a pretty severe lockdown, other than schools, and it appears to be working, somewhat to my surprise.

The economic cost is obviously severe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 25, 2020, 09:39:02 AM
I'm not familiar with "viral load", but my doc said school kids aren't spreading it, in part because if they do have the virus, they are asymptomatic.

He also said other "young" people that are asymptomatic are not spreaders.  20 year olds
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 25, 2020, 09:40:22 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 25, 2020, 09:34:55 AM
I obviously try and draw conclusions from how other countries experience this pandemic, so when I see France keeping schools open AND showing a dramatic decline in  reported cases, I tentatively conclude schools are not a major transmission vector.  They have shuttered bars, restaurants, barber shops, gyms, and the like, and you need permission to move around more than 1 km from your house.  It's a pretty severe lockdown, other than schools, and it appears to be working, somewhat to my surprise.

The economic cost is obviously severe.
France is a good source of data, but we have a better one right here at home.  In-school transmission is nearly non-existent within the Austin-area school districts.  What few cases have occurred, have generally been related to after-school gatherings of children engaging in risky behaviors together.  And even that is almost entirely at the high school level, there are very few cases occurring in middle school and only 2 all year in our elementary school of 600 kids.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 25, 2020, 09:44:10 AM
yup, there are many folks out there that would LOVE to show that elementary schools and/or high schools are causing a huge spread, but it's just not the case
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 25, 2020, 09:52:15 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 25, 2020, 06:55:52 AM
I left a State full of negligent parents.

Do you really want the government to be your parent?

You could help reverse the wave from California to Arizona!! Do it! Move to LA.

Yes, they actually view the govt as perental figueres. :57:

Once you understand this, you understand them. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 25, 2020, 10:17:44 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 25, 2020, 08:11:33 AM
The receptionist at physical therapy has plans to fly to Cleveland today or tomorrow.  She overheard me and the therapist talking about travel and how neither of us would get on a plane short of an emergency (the idea of a red eye is a good one).  She piped up and said "Y'all are scaring me now."
Across from my wife's office, there's an urgent care in the building across the parking lot. There was a line of people stretched halfway around the building waiting to get their rapid-response COVID tests so they could get on airplanes.

This'll end well. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 25, 2020, 10:43:06 AM
parental figures in Government would rather close schools than airlines

brilliant!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 25, 2020, 10:51:54 AM
I need a COVID test before baseball camp, and within five days, and the turn around time is said to be 2-4 business days.  Camp starts on a Tuesday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 25, 2020, 11:03:59 AM
A metaphor that only works if you view the govt as parental figures. :57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 25, 2020, 11:12:49 AM
I think this is our biggest concern right now - even bigger than the virus itself.

I count myself among the many who have been impacted here. I'm not afraid to admit that either.

The Biden coronavirus task force has a mental health problem | TheHill (https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/527317-the-biden-coronavirus-task-force-has-a-mental-health-problem)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 25, 2020, 11:18:28 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 25, 2020, 10:51:54 AM
I need a COVID test before baseball camp, and within five days, and the turn around time is said to be 2-4 business days.  Camp starts on a Tuesday.
You'll have to run extra laps for reporting fashionably late
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 25, 2020, 12:36:09 PM
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/article/third-covid-vaccine-astrazeneca-oxford-effective-cheap/?utm_campaign=nova&utm_content=1606262041&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR30A2Hm5oB2esPJ2mwFsTz1CiRjHCcmP5iFPIXlAMysT0VwjM45b15-dwc

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 25, 2020, 12:39:27 PM
could we have too many cheap and effective options with vaccines?

I'll roll up my sleeve
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 25, 2020, 12:46:39 PM
The Oxford option is a good one. It requires refrigeration only, from what I've gathered. Good for rural locations.

The US has 3 Million doses coming this year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 25, 2020, 01:28:04 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 25, 2020, 10:51:54 AM
I need a COVID test before baseball camp, and within five days, and the turn around time is said to be 2-4 business days.  Camp starts on a Tuesday.
baseball camp?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 25, 2020, 01:31:05 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 25, 2020, 12:39:27 PM
could we have too many cheap and effective options with vaccines?

I'll roll up my sleeve
can I get all three please
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 25, 2020, 01:40:46 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 25, 2020, 01:28:04 PM
baseball camp?
it's a lot like band camp, only different
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on November 25, 2020, 02:11:58 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 24, 2020, 02:47:49 PM
Redeye is the way I would probably travel now, if I had to.
Tried to take the redeye to Boston last month. They cancelled the flight on me. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 25, 2020, 02:22:09 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on November 25, 2020, 02:11:58 PM
Tried to take the redeye to Boston last month. They cancelled the flight on me.
Yeah, you were probably the only person on it (or very few). The airlines do that all the time, but say it's a mechanical or weather thing. Drives me nuts when that happens.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 25, 2020, 02:30:01 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 25, 2020, 01:28:04 PM
baseball camp?
I think the Braves are taking a look at me for real this year after my surgery.


https://www.mlb.com/braves/fans/experiences-and-merchandise/fantasy-camp

I also believe the Dawgs will win the NC "next year".
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 25, 2020, 02:47:46 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/lEx8859.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 25, 2020, 03:16:16 PM
Wisconsin

The coming two weeks will be telling, as to how people behave this weekend.

(https://i.imgur.com/b6jNxm0.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/15vNPgk.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/J2qMw08.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 25, 2020, 03:20:20 PM
I predict people will not behave.  


One bad effect of the coming vaccines is that people will act like it's already a thing, but in actuality the masses won't actually receive it for several months.  


It's like buying a yacht when all you have is a winning lottery ticket.  Slow down, boss.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 25, 2020, 06:02:18 PM
I surmise we all believe that MANY people will not "behave" especially over the Holidays, probably enough in numbers to cause further escalation.  Many will do their best, as many have noted here, to limit their exposure risk until the vaccine is in wide use.

I'm seeing some good numbers of getting the vaccine out, presuming they get emergency use clearance.  I think there is a shot I could get it by end of January.

Ha.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 25, 2020, 06:25:58 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 25, 2020, 06:02:18 PM
 I think there is a shot I could get it by end of January.
The virus or vaccine?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 25, 2020, 06:38:45 PM
Rumors on Buckeye Boards is corona has snagged some Buckeyes
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 25, 2020, 07:15:25 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 25, 2020, 06:25:58 PM
The virus or vaccine?
Exactly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 25, 2020, 07:17:44 PM
Well then I'm happy and sad for you
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 26, 2020, 08:41:08 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 25, 2020, 07:17:44 PM
Well then I'm happy and sad for you

(https://y.yarn.co/e9ed40ca-4422-48fd-8738-de648dbaeec3_screenshot.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 26, 2020, 08:50:47 AM
HA!that's exactly where I heard that,circa 1982 or so,underated flick.The guy on the right lived in the wall and had his door in Kilmer's closet I think it was
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 26, 2020, 12:59:00 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/QbaYIaT.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 26, 2020, 09:36:24 PM
If you're caring for yourself or a loved one with covid at home, public health officials say there are several very important things you should be doing to try to keep symptoms from spiraling out of control. Colette Rossiter, Clay County Public Health Coordinator, says one of the most important is to stay hydrated..

common sense stuff

https://www.exploreokoboji.com/news/news-stories/public-health-officials-say-there-are-several-very-important-things-to-do-if-caring-for-yourself-or-a-loved-one-at-home-with-covid/ (https://www.exploreokoboji.com/news/news-stories/public-health-officials-say-there-are-several-very-important-things-to-do-if-caring-for-yourself-or-a-loved-one-at-home-with-covid/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 27, 2020, 06:52:00 AM
https://covidtracking.com/data

(https://i.imgur.com/HG5cj8W.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 27, 2020, 07:19:36 AM
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/11/26/939365087/government-model-suggests-u-s-covid-19-cases-could-be-approaching-100-million

"We" have tried to guess how many have been infected around here with a view to estimating where we are with "herd immunity".  The above estimate is on the high side, but still in range of possibility, basically one person in three in the US.

That starts to reduce R naught IFF infection confers resistance.  The population is not AS vulnerable to contact with COVID infectees.  A vaccine MIGHT be approved by Dec. 10, and MIGHT vaccinate as many as 20 million by year's end (a third of whom MIGHT already have had it).

I think this is what the stock market has been figuring.  There is some chance old people like me might be the vaccine by Jan 30 or so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 27, 2020, 09:02:30 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 27, 2020, 07:19:36 AM
 There is some chance old people like me might be the vaccine by Jan 30 or so.
Well I for one certainly don't want to see them boil you down and serve you up in a mad rush
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 29, 2020, 12:48:29 PM
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/article/polio-pandemic-coronavirus-vaccine/?utm_campaign=nova&utm_content=1606665781&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1xD8PO9qvW0UEFxCORPubCLwxdhu0vhtrLUmUe3lY4kM_SPMOXyWs5AUE

A rather sobering reminded about polio.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 29, 2020, 03:29:29 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 29, 2020, 12:48:29 PM
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/article/polio-pandemic-coronavirus-vaccine/?utm_campaign=nova&utm_content=1606665781&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1xD8PO9qvW0UEFxCORPubCLwxdhu0vhtrLUmUe3lY4kM_SPMOXyWs5AUE

A rather sobering reminded about polio.
just wish these vaccines were as easy to take as the polio vaccine
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 29, 2020, 03:32:27 PM
The first polio shots hurt, as I recollect.  The sugar cube came later.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 29, 2020, 04:08:09 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 29, 2020, 03:32:27 PM
The first polio shots hurt, as I recollect.  The sugar cube came later.
I was a sugar cube guy

at least you only had to get one shot
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on November 29, 2020, 04:13:04 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 29, 2020, 03:32:27 PM
The first polio shots hurt, as I recollect.  The sugar cube came later.
My Dad was telling my kids all about this a couple months ago along with stories of the Iron lung..  I had to remind the kids they've had about 18 shots already. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 29, 2020, 04:23:12 PM
my Aunt had polio

I got the sugar cube
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 29, 2020, 04:23:40 PM
Yeah, I had several shots.  I was young, I might be confusing them with other vaccinations.  

To my surprise, my doc wanted me to get booster a few years back for polio and I did.  It didn't hurt.  He said they were not good for life.

I told the wife there was some chance we'd get a COVID vaccine by end of Jan.  Probably not odds on bet though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on November 29, 2020, 07:48:48 PM
My wife and some of her partners don't seem to be in a hurry to get a vaccine.   A couple of them would rather wait some period of time.  They seem interested in learning of side effects,  etc.  Couple this with the fact that many of them feel they've already been exposed and have likely already had CV.  Its an interesting perspective. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 29, 2020, 07:55:12 PM
if I had any reason to think I'd had COVID, I'd give blood to find out before taking the vaccine.

Not because I'm afraid of the vaccine, but it could go to someone else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 29, 2020, 08:18:12 PM
Any major side effects would not show up for years.  And this is basically RNA they are using, it's very unlikely to produce some long term side effect, in my view.

I'll be first in line when they let me.

I know I might be a bit down for a day or so.  I hope it's better than the Shingrix thing.  That was not so fun.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 29, 2020, 08:42:44 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 29, 2020, 08:18:12 PM
Any major side effects would not show up for years.  And this is basically RNA they are using, it's very unlikely to produce some long term side effect, in my view.

I'll be first in line when they let me.

I know I might be a bit down for a day or so.  I hope it's better than the Shingrix thing.  That was not so fun.
the articles Ive read say the adverse reactions to the vaccines only happen to 3% to 10% of those taking it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 30, 2020, 07:55:22 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 27, 2020, 07:19:36 AM
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/11/26/939365087/government-model-suggests-u-s-covid-19-cases-could-be-approaching-100-million

"We" have tried to guess how many have been infected around here with a view to estimating where we are with "herd immunity".  The above estimate is on the high side, but still in range of possibility, basically one person in three in the US.

That starts to reduce R naught IFF infection confers resistance.  The population is not AS vulnerable to contact with COVID infectees.  A vaccine MIGHT be approved by Dec. 10, and MIGHT vaccinate as many as 20 million by year's end (a third of whom MIGHT already have had it).

I think this is what the stock market has been figuring.  There is some chance old people like me might be the vaccine by Jan 30 or so.
Howdy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 30, 2020, 08:42:25 AM
Wisconsin:


(https://i.imgur.com/JsnrWVZ.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/JV2WVIg.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 30, 2020, 09:31:29 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 29, 2020, 04:08:09 PM
I was a sugar cube guy
I thought they used those to drop acid - not that i know anything about that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 30, 2020, 09:42:20 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 30, 2020, 09:31:29 AM
I thought they used those to drop acid - not that i know anything about that
Dont know anything bout that

I still remember getting that sugar cube at the doctor's office

quite a surprise when I thought I was going to get a shot

I remember thinking man this was way better then getting a shot why cant they do this for everything
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 30, 2020, 09:53:59 AM
Folks did put LSD on sugar cubes, they may still do it.

The very first polio vaccines were shots.  My mom was scared to death of polio.  I do recall getting the cube a year or so later.

Either I'm tougher now, I dunno, but shots today don't hurt very much at all.  The needles may be finer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on November 30, 2020, 10:21:28 AM
The TDAP is the only one I dread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on November 30, 2020, 10:24:38 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 30, 2020, 09:42:20 AM
Dont know anything bout that

I still remember getting that sugar cube at the doctor's office

quite a surprise when I thought I was going to get a shot

I remember thinking man this was way better then getting a shot why cant they do this for everything
I asked this at one point to a medical professional (it might've been about drugs, can't remember) and the thing was that if you eat something, it's much harder to tell how much of the dose actually gets through. Your digestive track has more barriers and such, hard to tell how much gets where it needs to. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 30, 2020, 10:24:48 AM
Quote from: ELA on November 30, 2020, 10:21:28 AM
The TDAP is the only one I dread.
Just had that a couple of months ago. Was not a big deal at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 30, 2020, 11:25:36 AM
I got stung by a stingray in the summer of 2019 and had to get the TDAP afterward.  I don't recall it being all that bad.

The stingray itself, on the other hand... wow.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on November 30, 2020, 11:28:34 AM
Yeah, I have always had a bad reaction to it.  It hurts, and I bruise badly from it.  When I got my pre-K booster, I ripped my leg away as they were doing it, and it dragged through.  No bueno
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 30, 2020, 11:50:30 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 30, 2020, 11:25:36 AM
I got stung by a stingray in the summer of 2019 and had to get the TDAP afterward.  I don't recall it being all that bad.

The stingray itself, on the other hand... wow.


Having grown up in Galveston I had my share of stingray run ins

A stingray stick is one of the most painful things I ever felt

sure makes you shuffle your feet when wading
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 30, 2020, 11:51:27 AM
Our digestive system is a major chemical factory, the stomach of course is acidic enough to denature protein, and other stuff, and then the small intestine is slightly alkaline, which is quite a trick.  Animals basically are a digestive tube surrounded by ancillary stuff.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 30, 2020, 01:46:04 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 30, 2020, 11:50:30 AM
Having grown up in Galveston I had my share of stingray run ins

A stingray stick is one of the most painful things I ever felt

sure makes you shuffle your feet when wading
No kidding.  I've been up and down the Texas coast (and other beaches around the country and world) my entire life, and never had it happen before.

This was in Port Aransas back in August 2019.  We went back to the exact same spot last month, and you better believe I shuffled my feet religiously.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 30, 2020, 02:17:23 PM
BTW they don't do the sugar cube thing for polio now. It's just a shot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 30, 2020, 02:19:55 PM
Yeah I've never even heard of the sugar cube.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 30, 2020, 02:21:10 PM
Have the 2 EE's on here heard that the CDC model thinks up to 100,000,000 US citizens have had Covid, TWICE?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 30, 2020, 02:34:33 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 30, 2020, 09:53:59 AM
Either I'm tougher now, I dunno, but shots today don't hurt very much at all.  The needles may be finer.
After experiencing the gaff they use when donating blood,shots are a pin prick
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 30, 2020, 02:53:26 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 30, 2020, 01:46:04 PM
No kidding.  I've been up and down the Texas coast (and other beaches around the country and world) my entire life, and never had it happen before.

This was in Port Aransas back in August 2019.  We went back to the exact same spot last month, and you better believe I shuffled my feet religiously.

nothing quite like wading in 3 feet of water shuffling your feet and all of a sudden the water just boils up in front of you and you know you dodged another bullet

and its not the big ones that are the danger its the smaller ones
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 30, 2020, 02:56:02 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 30, 2020, 02:21:10 PM
Have the 2 EE's on here heard that the CDC model thinks up to 100,000,000 US citizens have had Covid, TWICE?
I might buy the first part but not the twice part
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 30, 2020, 03:00:24 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 30, 2020, 02:21:10 PM
Have the 2 EE's on here heard that the CDC model thinks up to 100,000,000 US citizens have had Covid, TWICE?
Yeah, just looked through the link posted above. Very interesting. Good if true.

Their multiplier between actual and confirmed cases is about 8x. I've long thought that anything above 10x is starting to peg my BS detector. 8x is within the plausible range IMHO. As I'm not an epidemiologist, I have no argument with their number.

Bear in mind, though, that the CDC model has not said anything about what's happened post Sep 30. Their model only accounts for what happened up until then, and had a total number of ~53M.

It was the NPR journalist who added this:

Quote
Since then, the CDC's tally of confirmed infections has increased to 12.5 million. So if the model's ratio still holds, the estimated total would now be greater than 95 million, leaving about 71% of the population uninfected.
That's the sort of assumption a journalist will make and an epidemiologist won't commit to. 

For example, if availability and use of testing, both for symptomatic folks and for those who are asymptomatic and want "convenience" tests for travel/etc are more prevalent, the multiplier between actual and confirmed cases would be expected to decrease.

On the opposite end, the higher test positivity rate that we've experienced in many areas in the current spike suggests a higher "missed positive" rate. Low positivity suggests you're over-testing and thus not missing very many cases. High positivity means you're not testing enough so there are probably a lot more missed cases. 

So maybe 100M is a good number, or maybe it isn't. But the CDC certainly didn't come up with the 100M number.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 30, 2020, 03:02:50 PM
Anecdata: my wife says they've sent a bunch of patients for tests today. If she's bringing it up, it's an outlier compared to the usual number of patients from her practice needing tests.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 30, 2020, 03:07:57 PM
Some Moderna news


https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/11/absolutely-remarkable-no-one-who-got-modernas-vaccine-trial-developed-severe-covid-19
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 30, 2020, 03:11:22 PM
what is cornsidered Severe?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 30, 2020, 03:13:55 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 30, 2020, 02:56:02 PM
I might buy the first part but not the twice part
The twice part is those two making fun of me with my predictions of how many people have had this thing, that we don't know about.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 30, 2020, 03:14:20 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 30, 2020, 03:11:22 PM
what is cornsidered Severe?
Probably going to the hospital??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 30, 2020, 03:15:28 PM
that's severe enough for me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 30, 2020, 03:15:56 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on November 30, 2020, 03:00:24 PM
Yeah, just looked through the link posted above. Very interesting. Good if true.

Their multiplier between actual and confirmed cases is about 8x. I've long thought that anything above 10x is starting to peg my BS detector. 8x is within the plausible range IMHO. As I'm not an epidemiologist, I have no argument with their number.

Bear in mind, though, that the CDC model has not said anything about what's happened post Sep 30. Their model only accounts for what happened up until then, and had a total number of ~53M.

It was the NPR journalist who added this:
That's the sort of assumption a journalist will make and an epidemiologist won't commit to.

For example, if availability and use of testing, both for symptomatic folks and for those who are asymptomatic and want "convenience" tests for travel/etc are more prevalent, the multiplier between actual and confirmed cases would be expected to decrease.

On the opposite end, the higher test positivity rate that we've experienced in many areas in the current spike suggests a higher "missed positive" rate. Low positivity suggests you're over-testing and thus not missing very many cases. High positivity means you're not testing enough so there are probably a lot more missed cases.

So maybe 100M is a good number, or maybe it isn't. But the CDC certainly didn't come up with the 100M number.


Agree with this pretty much word for word.

It still seems to be positive news in general, but I do question the "extending the ratio" assumption.  There are a lot of factors that drive the ratio, which may or may not still hold when the raw numbers increase.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 30, 2020, 03:31:00 PM
I think it's more like 150,000,000.

Twice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 30, 2020, 03:34:12 PM
If we're at 150,000,000, we should be getting closer to herd immunity and make it harder and harder to continue spreading. 

Let's see where we're at in 2 weeks as all the post-Thanskgiving numbers start coming in. If we don't see a continuance of the spike, you very well might be right. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 30, 2020, 03:39:09 PM
Yeah if we're truly at 150,000,000 it would severely slow the spread.  Herd immunity isn't going to look like a step function, it's going to diminish at a slow exponential decay rate until it pretty much stops.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 30, 2020, 03:39:25 PM
There will certainly be a lot of testing this week, so we'll know soon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 30, 2020, 05:14:52 PM
Yeah, the math starts to slow transmission rates around 50% of folks resistant.  You are contagious and run into 4 people, two of who are resistant, and two get sick, rather than four.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 30, 2020, 05:36:49 PM
I think we are going to see a massive surge in testing over the coming weeks, with a lot of cases, but NOT (edit) many in the "severe" category. By severe, I mean hospitalization. Of course, this is my gut assumption - and also my hope.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 30, 2020, 05:48:23 PM
I think you mean NOT many in the severe category.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 30, 2020, 05:49:12 PM
If I'm reading that right
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 30, 2020, 05:36:49 PM
I think we are going to see a massive surge in testing over the coming weeks, with a lot of cases, but many in the "severe" category. By severe, I mean hospitalization. Of course, this is my gut assumption - and also my hope.
If I'm reading that right you're assuming severe cases and that is your hope?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 30, 2020, 05:51:13 PM
Post corrected. Been a long day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 30, 2020, 05:56:11 PM
Testing over the weekend in MN certainly had heavy volume. Saturday had a record # of positives, but on a record-high number of tests run (97,000). Not sure how much backloading that includes. The better sign is that the 7-day rolling average of percent positive is down around 10%, which is the lowest it's been since October.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 30, 2020, 05:58:36 PM
Georgia MIGHT be receding, too early to tell, but 5 days of lower reported cases, which could be the holiday reportage.  My guess is it's a temp thing and we're headed up soon.  We all hope the cases are not severe, that could get bad.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 30, 2020, 06:01:26 PM
I THINK we are past the more severe cases. Those who were vulnerable got it, and either survived barely or were taken. The remaining vulnerable are now taking precautions, it seems.

It sucks all around, and I'm not discounting any of the deaths. It's tragic that almost 40% of our deaths were in nursing homes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 30, 2020, 06:04:51 PM
Yup, I think we all followed your thinking here.

And agree.  

Damn right.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 30, 2020, 06:09:50 PM
I think we'll know tomorrow whether the lower numbers were due to the holiday. The normal "low" days are Sun/Mon, but I think we'll have an extended low period starting Thursday that will all show up tomorrow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 30, 2020, 06:11:11 PM
Our Tuesday reporting typically catches us up for Sat/Sun/Mon but I suspect you're right and this week it'll date back to T-day.  Hoping it won't be too severe.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 30, 2020, 06:16:06 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 30, 2020, 05:51:13 PM
Post corrected. Been a long day.
(https://media.tenor.com/images/e4ae71099eeeccdaaf1495af637ac4c7/tenor.gif)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 01, 2020, 07:19:12 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/9AX9ho4.png)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 01, 2020, 08:39:50 AM
Stupid gonna stupid.


Officials enforcing coronavirus orders shut down a party attended by about 300 people in Wicker Park over the weekend and earlier this month cited a business for hosting a party with more than 600 attendees, the city of Chicago said in a news release.

Since restrictions on indoor service at restaurants and bars and tighter crowd limits went into effect on Oct. 30, the city said it has shut down five businesses for one day and closed four others until they have a reopening plan in place. In addition, the city said it has issued 20 citations and 54 “orders to correct” to bars, restaurants and other businesses.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 01, 2020, 08:49:32 AM
France has really shut this down, nearly, with schools being open.  They have gone from ~50 K a day to 4 K a day new cases reported.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on December 01, 2020, 12:04:36 PM
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/01/940395651/coronavirus-was-in-u-s-weeks-earlier-than-previously-known-study-says

I'll buy this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 01, 2020, 12:33:37 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on December 01, 2020, 12:04:36 PM
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/01/940395651/coronavirus-was-in-u-s-weeks-earlier-than-previously-known-study-says

I'll buy this.
I dont know why this is news

It was always pretty obvious to a lot of us
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 01, 2020, 12:47:14 PM
I think it was here in November. Spain says even earlier, although that is still being studied.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 01, 2020, 01:21:37 PM
I thought they already uncovered proof of cases in California in December?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 01, 2020, 01:26:00 PM
SIOUX CITY, Iowa — MercyOne Siouxland Medical Center has received a second new drug to help in the fight against COVID-19.

Regeneron is different from Bam, the first new drug; it has two antibodies.

Data shows both drugs are good at stopping the virus, but Regeneron is designed to be given to high-risk patients right after they're diagnosed with COVID-19.

"The other drugs that we have are designed to really treat people once they've gotten really sick with COVID," said Dr. Larry Volz. "This drug initially was designed to do that, but they found during trials that it was really beneficial if we gave it to people early, before they got sick and needed to go to the hospital. We could stop that progression."


This news comes after Woodbury County has exceeded 100 hospitalizations for the first time.

MercyOne Siouxland Medical Center staff say the hospital is busy, but not overwhelmed.


_________________________________________________ __________________________

I know this has been out there for a while.  Just getting to smaller rural markets
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 01, 2020, 01:33:04 PM
GDit Fearless, you started that one.

Cut it out.  Y'all are like little children.   Stop it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 01, 2020, 01:58:34 PM
Quote from: utee94 on December 01, 2020, 01:21:37 PM
I thought they already uncovered proof of cases in California in December? 
They did. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on December 01, 2020, 02:04:46 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 01, 2020, 12:33:37 PM
I dont know why this is news

It was always pretty obvious to a lot of us
Maybe not new news, but actual observational proof of suspicions and anecdotes that we've all thrown out about when this mess started.

Which also begs the question: how do the antibodies decay? Are they filtered out in the liver and kidneys? If they disappear from our bloodstreams in less than 6 months, how come they are still in blood bank donations?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 01, 2020, 02:11:21 PM
All samples are frozen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 01, 2020, 02:22:55 PM
I wonder if a related, perhaps less virulent COVID was spreading earlier, and folks were not showing symptoms, or if they did, it was like a cold.

That would explain some things.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 01, 2020, 02:23:39 PM
Yeah, that cold you had in December... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 01, 2020, 02:26:06 PM
Quote from: utee94 on December 01, 2020, 01:33:04 PM
GDit Fearless, you started that one.

Cut it out.  Y'all are like little children.  Stop it.
I went back to check to see if I started it.  Posts but be deleted.  That's ok with me.  I don't usually start stuff.  I thought Longhorn started it or maybe Orangeman.

no worries, I'll take your word for it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 01, 2020, 02:33:22 PM
Couldn't be me, my posts don't echo down the hallway like everyone else's does.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 01, 2020, 02:34:30 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 01, 2020, 02:23:39 PM
Yeah, that cold you had in December...
last December I did have a bad cough that lasted about 3 weeks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 01, 2020, 02:35:33 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 01, 2020, 02:26:06 PM
I went back to check to see if I started it.  Posts but be deleted.  That's ok with me.  I don't usually start stuff.  I thought Longhorn started it or maybe Orangeman.

no worries, I'll take your word for it
we Longhorns dont start stuff we just finish them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 01, 2020, 02:35:52 PM
I had one in November.  Nearly missed the road trip to Minneapolis for a beatdown by the boat rower
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 01, 2020, 02:36:53 PM
Yeah, the UT football program has finished the careers of like 4 HCs in a row....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 01, 2020, 02:40:36 PM
all the way back to Mack
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 01, 2020, 02:41:25 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 01, 2020, 02:36:53 PM
Yeah, the UT football program has finished the careers of like 4 HCs in a row....
yep but we still have scoreboard all over you sec sec sec folks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 01, 2020, 02:43:14 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 01, 2020, 02:36:53 PM
Yeah, the UT football program has finished the careers of like 4 HCs in a row....
I mean, I don't disagree that Texas football is a dumpster fire, but Mack Brown is currently coaching at UNC.  And Charlie Strong was coaching at USF for a few years.  And John Mackovic coached at Arizona after Texas.  But yeah, David McWilliams' coaching career really did end at Texas, so I guess you got 1/4 right. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 01, 2020, 03:00:50 PM
Tennessee seems to finish HC careers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 01, 2020, 03:03:18 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 01, 2020, 03:00:50 PM
Tennessee seems to finish HC careers.
Florida doesnt do a bad job at that either
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 01, 2020, 03:45:27 PM
Today:

(https://i.imgur.com/oh6Pbmk.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 01, 2020, 03:46:48 PM
Wisconsin today:

(https://i.imgur.com/NzLVVv5.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 01, 2020, 03:49:04 PM
I'm discounting the value of basically any COVID case/death numbers until we get through a couple more days. The Thanksgiving holiday both with people traveling (some of whom were tested in order to travel) and people coming back from travel is going to throw off the numbers, and I'm honestly not sure whether they'll come in higher or lower than "trend". 

I'm expecting this week to be up, in general, but either way I'm not putting any stock in any numbers until we get to next week. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 01, 2020, 04:15:37 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 01, 2020, 02:41:25 PM
yep but we still have scoreboard all over you sec sec sec folks
I dunno Bama clipped the the Horns in 10 yrs ago,mostly because Colt McCoy went out on the Horns 1st Series.He was a smooth QB
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 01, 2020, 05:03:33 PM


Quote from: MrNubbz on December 01, 2020, 04:15:37 PM
I dunno Bama clipped the the Horns in 10 yrs ago,mostly because Colt McCoy went out on the Horns 1st Series.He was a smooth QB
Hmmm, off the top of my head, we don't have scoreboard on Alabama (2010) or LSU (2019) or Vanderbilt (1928).  We do have scoreboard on Texas A&M (2011) and Mississippi State (1999).

Beyond those, I'd have to look them up.  Within the last decade I know we've played Ole Miss and Arkansas, and I think we lost the final meeting with both of those schools as well.  


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 01, 2020, 05:06:23 PM
Georgia?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 01, 2020, 05:09:50 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 01, 2020, 05:06:23 PM
Georgia?
Oh yeah good point.  I guess I'm already trying to erase the Tom Herman era from my brain.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 01, 2020, 05:10:23 PM
I don't think Florida has ever played Texas.  Ask OU about SEC defense, though. 
*3 games pre-WWII


Anyway, is Texas the 2nd or 3rd-most fertile recruiting state?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 01, 2020, 05:23:40 PM
Yeah I had to look it up, Horns are 2-0-1 all-time against the Gators, with the most recent meeting in 1940.

And I have no idea where Texas would rank as far as "fertile recruiting grounds."  It likely depends on how you measure it-- absolute numbers with D1-A scholarships?  Per capita?  Or something a little deeper, like number of high school players from Texas that are on NFL rosters?

I don't follow recruiting very closely so can't really comment on where Texas might be ranked by those metrics.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 01, 2020, 05:24:03 PM
This thread is getting screwed up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 01, 2020, 05:24:50 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 01, 2020, 05:24:03 PM
This thread is getting screwed up.
Somebody should probably start deleting off-topic posts around here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on December 01, 2020, 05:46:40 PM
Minnesota's numbers today were quite low (only 3,000 and change). It was also too good to be true, as the % positive was back up due to the smallest test volume since October.

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/12/01/latest-on-covid19-in-mn?fbclid=IwAR2n2yCVWLeluI6fXi2B-aqPOzQwW1vHDqps_1pNyhnHjmwGWTVmBDs8E3Q
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 01, 2020, 05:52:35 PM
wait one more please then I'll stop

BEVO also has scoreboard on Georgia

OK now Im done
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 01, 2020, 05:57:40 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 01, 2020, 05:24:03 PM
This thread is getting screwed up.
sorry, apparently I started it

but, there's no evidence 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 01, 2020, 05:59:48 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 01, 2020, 05:57:40 PM
sorry, apparently I started it

but, there's no evidence
Nah you didn't start it THIS time.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 01, 2020, 06:12:19 PM
I didnt do it

nobody saw me do it

you cant prove anything
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 02, 2020, 07:09:54 AM
December: Health care workers and nursing home residents will likely be the first people (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/OiJ3Hzl2jw6JLCjaMafRnA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhqf8lP0TkaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8xMi8wMS9oZWFsdGgvY292aWQtdmFjY2luZS1kaXN0cmlidXRpb24tZmlyc3QuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjAxMjAyJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTI0NjM0Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9MTUzMzY4OTEwJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDU4NDgmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPThlNWQyYTJiNWU0OGE2OTY1NjE5MmNjM2FmMGE5MDBjVwNueXRCCgAfJXrHX9FlvKlSEWpjZG9vbTlAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) to receive the vaccine, as the panel recommended.

Up to 40 million doses could be available to Americans before the end of this year, from a combination of Pfizer’s and Moderna’s vaccines. That would be enough to vaccinate the three million people who live in long-term-care facilities, as well as most of the country’s 21 million health care workers.
January: Keep in mind that both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require a second dose a few weeks later to be effective. So an initial batch of 40 million doses would be enough to vaccinate only 20 million people.
By early next year, Pfizer and Moderna are likely to be able to ship about 70 million doses per month, Moncef Slaoui, a top federal vaccine official, told The Washington Post yesterday (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/gadrhvbXJXvn-48eGf0yHg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhqf8lP4Q1AWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lndhc2hpbmd0b25wb3N0LmNvbS93YXNoaW5ndG9uLXBvc3QtbGl2ZS8yMDIwLzEyLzAxL3BhdGgtZm9yd2FyZC1jb21iYXRpbmctY292aWQtMTktd2l0aC1vcGVyYXRpb24td2FycC1zcGVlZC1jaGllZi1zY2llbnRpZmljLWFkdmlzZXItbW9uY2VmLXNsYW91aS8_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIwMTIwMiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yNDYzNCZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTE1MzM2ODkxMCZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTQ1ODQ4JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0QgoAHyV6x1_RZbypUhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~). People will likely receive the shots at doctor’s offices, hospitals and pharmacies, as well as at specially created clinics in some places, my colleague Katie Thomas says.
February and March: The next priority groups are likely to be people over the age of 65 (and especially those over 75); people with medical conditions that put them at risk of death if infected; and essential workers, like those in education, food, transportation and law enforcement.
One exception to this second wave of vaccine recipients may be people who have already had the virus, making them immune from it for at least some period of time.
If other companies in addition to Pfizer and Moderna receive approval for their vaccines, the total number shipped each month could reach 150 million by March, Slaoui said.
April, May and June: The most likely scenario is that even people who don’t qualify as a priority — like healthy, nonessential workers younger than 65 — will begin receiving the vaccine by the spring. The vast majority of Americans could be vaccinated by early summer.
Once that happens, life will still not immediately return to normal, partly because the vaccines are not 100 percent effective. “There will still be risks to people,” as Caitlin Rivers, a Johns Hopkins epidemiologist, told me.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 02, 2020, 08:15:24 AM
Looks like we'll be in pretty good shape by next summer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 02, 2020, 09:56:48 AM
accine side effects.

Much of the vaccine hoopla is focused on the December 10 FDA meeting and subsequent vaccine distribution. Much less attention has focused on informing, and preparing, the public on what to expect once you actually get the vaccine. I think this is a mistake. We must be transparent about what people should expect.

After vaccination, close to 100% of people will experience a local symptom. This includes pain at injection site, redness, and some swelling. I don’t think any of us are surprised about these, considering the vaccination comes with a needle.

A much smaller amount of people will experience intense (defined as preventing daily activities) side effects. In the Moderna trial, these included fatigue in 9.7% of participants, muscle pain in 8.9%, joint pain in 5.2%, and headache in 4.5%. Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine trial, side effects included fatigue (3.8%) and headache (2%). Some participants described that they “felt similar to a severe hangover” or “slight flu symptoms”. Together, 2% of participants got a fever. Chances of side effects are higher when you get the second dose (30 days after the first dose). No other severe systemic events were reported. In other words, 19,000 people did not have a severe event from the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccination.

Why the more intense side effects? The Pfizer vaccination is made up of small strands of mRNA. Basically, it’s a bunch of instruction manuals that need to be sent to your cells. However, in order for them to get there they must be transported in tiny fat bubbles (see picture labeled "lipid nanoparticle"). Some people may have some intense side effects from the fat bubbles.

The higher rate of intense reactions is more than people are typically accustomed to. However, the side effects are temporary. The side effects are normal. And, actually, side effects are a good sign that your immune system is working.

With COVID19 killing 1 in 200 people infected and the possibility of returning to a normal life, this is a small sacrifice to pay. We know that these vaccines are 95% effective. So, if you’re one of the unlucky few with side effects, have confidence in knowing that the vaccine will work.

As one immunologist said, “take Tylenol and suck it up for a day”.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 02, 2020, 11:23:16 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 02, 2020, 09:56:48 AM
accine side effects.



A much smaller amount of people will experience intense (defined as preventing daily activities) side effects. In the Moderna trial, these included fatigue in 9.7% of participants, muscle pain in 8.9%, joint pain in 5.2%, and headache in 4.5%. Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine trial, side effects included fatigue (3.8%) and headache (2%). Some participants described that they “felt similar to a severe hangover” or “slight flu symptoms”. Together, 2% of participants got a fever. Chances of side effects are higher when you get the second dose (30 days after the first dose). No other severe systemic events were reported. In other words, 19,000 people did not have a severe event from the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccination.





Whats interesting is some media outlets reporting side affects without mentioning that it only affects 5% to 10% of those being vaccinated

Basically they paint it like everyone will have these side affects which is way over blown

This boarders on fake news

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 02, 2020, 01:03:03 PM
10% of 300 million is a lot of people.  Depending on the severity of side effects, 10% is pretty bad, IMO.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 02, 2020, 01:07:31 PM
Quote from: utee94 on December 02, 2020, 01:03:03 PM
10% of 300 million is a lot of people.  Depending on the severity of side effects, 10% is pretty bad, IMO.


Just a matter of opinion

Its not a death sentence

plus this is a chance to get back to near normal so Ill take my chances
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 02, 2020, 01:11:42 PM
When a side effect is, for example, fatigue, I'm not that impressed with it.  Muscle soreness?  Duh.

The Shingrix vaccines against Hepatitis Zoster hit me harder than anything I've ever experienced after a shot, and I'd take that in a NY minute.

Anything is going to generate 10% or so generic hypochondriacal symptoms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 02, 2020, 01:13:47 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 02, 2020, 01:11:42 PM
Anything is going to generate 10% or so generic hypochondriacal symptoms.
I wonder how many people in the control group receiving a placebo got side effects (assuming there was a control group). I'm sure it's nonzero.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 02, 2020, 01:18:37 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 02, 2020, 01:13:47 PM
I wonder how many people in the control group receiving a placebo got side effects (assuming there was a control group). I'm sure it's nonzero.
There was a control group and they did report side effects.  They had a shot of saline I imagine.  They calculate effectiveness by how many in the control group got COVID relative to the test group, and I'd GUESS they did side effects the same way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 02, 2020, 01:34:51 PM
I self induce a hangover at least a couple times a week

probably never know if it was a side effect or just a few extra Budweisers

I'll roll up my sleeve
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 02, 2020, 01:35:57 PM
I am guessing SOME folks will claim to have had SERIOUS debilitating side effects, and that will scare others, and make lawyers smile.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 02, 2020, 01:57:00 PM
make em sign a consent form

if they don't want the vaccine, they're quarantined to their residence until further notice. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 02, 2020, 02:15:53 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 02, 2020, 01:57:00 PM
make em sign a consent form

if they don't want the vaccine, they're quarantined to their residence until further notice.
Im not a lawyer but it seems to me if there is full disclosure to the public as to the chances of having bad side effects that legally they are in the clear
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on December 02, 2020, 02:20:58 PM
Everyone I regularly talk to plans on rolling up their sleeves as soon as they are able, myself included. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 02, 2020, 02:22:22 PM
if I'm 25 or younger, maybe not, but the worst side effect would seem to be much better than a bout with the real virus

no brainer
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on December 02, 2020, 02:22:28 PM
The disclosures stapled to a bottle amoxicillin are a mile long.   It gets into whether effects are known but not disclosed.  These standards lead to overdisclosure imo,  this all happens again in the financial securities biz.    
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 02, 2020, 02:23:50 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 02, 2020, 01:57:00 PM
make em sign a consent form

if they don't want the vaccine, they're quarantined to their residence until further notice.
So you're on board with big Government/Business telling you what to do with your health.Though they've proved nothing for long term affects,PR pukes lie to turn a profit
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 02, 2020, 02:27:29 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 02, 2020, 01:57:00 PM
make em sign a consent form

if they don't want the vaccine, they're quarantined to their residence until further notice.
This seems highly unconstitutional.

I mean, I know it's popular right now to make fun of Americans that believe in their rights, but this would be wildly illegal and also a terrible idea for any number of reasons.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 02, 2020, 02:28:22 PM
Quote from: MarqHusker on December 02, 2020, 02:22:28 PM
The disclosures stapled to a bottle amoxicillin are a mile long. 
Amoxicillin saved my ass when I had a bad leg infection the "newer" anti biotics weren't working
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 02, 2020, 02:29:53 PM
Quote from: utee94 on December 02, 2020, 02:27:29 PM
This seems highly unconstitutional.

I mean, I know it's popular right now to make fun of Americans that believe in their rights, but this would be wildly illegal and also a terrible idea for any number of reasons.
Testify 94 Testify - hold on while I get a bowl of Red
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 02, 2020, 02:32:57 PM
Pretty sure Fearless just forgot the sarcasm font on that one, guys... Settle down lol.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 02, 2020, 02:33:56 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 02, 2020, 02:32:57 PM
Pretty sure Fearless just forgot the sarcasm font on that one, guys... Settle down lol.
I don't know, Fearless is a bit of a sketchy dude.  It wouldn't surprise me at all if he were trying to steal "muh rights!" :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 02, 2020, 02:35:23 PM
Quote from: MarqHusker on December 02, 2020, 02:22:28 PM
The disclosures stapled to a bottle amoxicillin are a mile long.  It gets into whether effects are known but not disclosed.  These standards lead to overdisclosure imo,  this all happens again in the financial securities biz.   
Damn right.

go eat your Tide pods ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 02, 2020, 02:37:11 PM
Quote from: utee94 on December 02, 2020, 02:33:56 PM
I don't know, Fearless is a bit of a sketchy dude.  It wouldn't surprise me at all if he were trying to steal "muh rights!" :)
No,just your Tee Time and a couple of cans of suds
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 02, 2020, 02:38:01 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 02, 2020, 02:35:23 PM
Damn right.

go eat your Tide pods ...
'splain
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 02, 2020, 02:51:33 PM
Quote from: utee94 on December 02, 2020, 02:27:29 PM
This seems highly unconstitutional.

I mean, I know it's popular right now to make fun of Americans that believe in their rights, but this would be wildly illegal and also a terrible idea for any number of reasons.


I think youre right although I am in favor of making school age kids get vaccinated from the virus along with their other shot they have to get
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 02, 2020, 02:56:51 PM
IMHO once we have the vaccine, then the people talking about 'muh rights' who don't want to wear a mask are primarily ONLY endangering themselves and like-minded people, and that's their prerogative.

The entire reason we have all of the restrictions is because vulnerable people have no immunity and because this virus is so transmissible they have no real ability to meaningfully protect themselves, unless they quite literally cut off all contact with the outside world. That's not practical, especially for those who need medical services, etc. 

But once we have vaccine access, people can protect themselves. At that point what happens to the people who refuse to protect themselves is Darwinism. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 02, 2020, 03:16:58 PM
Damn right
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 02, 2020, 03:17:34 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 02, 2020, 02:56:51 PM
IMHO once we have the vaccine, then the people talking about 'muh rights' who don't want to wear a mask are primarily ONLY endangering themselves and like-minded people, and that's their prerogative.

The entire reason we have all of the restrictions is because vulnerable people have no immunity and because this virus is so transmissible they have no real ability to meaningfully protect themselves, unless they quite literally cut off all contact with the outside world. That's not practical, especially for those who need medical services, etc.

But once we have vaccine access, people can protect themselves. At that point what happens to the people who refuse to protect themselves is Darwinism.
Its always been Darwinism and always will be

Youre always gonna find folks who refuse to do something even if its in their best interest

wearing seatbelts comes to mind

what about having a Ive had the shot card and all restaurants bars movie theaters etc requiring this proof before being served
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 02, 2020, 03:17:58 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 02, 2020, 03:16:58 PM
Damn right
Yep.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 02, 2020, 03:20:53 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 02, 2020, 03:17:34 PM
Its always been Darwinism and always will be

Youre always gonna find folks who refuse to do something even if its in their best interest

wearing seatbelts comes to mind

what about having a Ive had the shot card and all restaurants bars movie theaters etc requiring this proof before being served

If you're suggesting making this a government mandate, then not only no,  but hell no.


If restaurants choose to do it themselves, that's something else entirely.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 02, 2020, 03:28:51 PM
Wisconsin:

(https://i.imgur.com/Giphr5h.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 02, 2020, 03:32:34 PM
Quote from: utee94 on December 02, 2020, 03:20:53 PM
If you're suggesting making this a government mandate, then not only no,  but hell no.


If restaurants choose to do it themselves, that's something else entirely.


why not 

I would want folks around me knowing Ive been vaccinated

This is a new world and we are going to have to prove we are not a danger to someone else

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 02, 2020, 03:39:21 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 02, 2020, 03:32:34 PM
why not

I would want folks around me knowing Ive been vaccinated

This is a new world and we are going to have to prove we are not a danger to someone else


That's a very California attitude from you, brah. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 02, 2020, 03:41:38 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 02, 2020, 03:39:21 PM
That's a very California attitude from you, brah.
yep Im not solid on this but there has to be something done to protect the public

and what about kids who have parents not wanting to get them vaccinated

should the law be silent on this also
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 02, 2020, 03:47:07 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 02, 2020, 03:41:38 PM
yep Im not solid on this but there has to be something done to protect the public

and what about kids who have parents not wanting to get them vaccinated

should the law be silent on this also

Whatever laws currently apply to childrens' vaccinations, should apply to this one as well.

Everything else you're saying-- yikes.  No way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 02, 2020, 03:50:57 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 02, 2020, 03:41:38 PM
yep Im not solid on this but there has to be something done to protect the public

the vaccine IS protecting the public!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 02, 2020, 04:01:23 PM
Quote from: utee94 on December 02, 2020, 02:27:29 PM
This seems highly unconstitutional.

I mean, I know it's popular right now to make fun of Americans that believe in their rights, but this would be wildly illegal and also a terrible idea for any number of reasons.


I was being a bit  Facetious

Geez, ya try to get some real work done for an hour or so and shit hits the fan
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 02, 2020, 04:04:59 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 02, 2020, 02:56:51 PM
But once we have vaccine access, people can protect themselves. At that point what happens to the people who refuse to protect themselves is Darwinism.
they should be required to wear the necklace or ankle bracelet or other medical info device, so that time and resources from doctors and nurses aren't wasted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 02, 2020, 04:06:37 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/5r3LGlV.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 02, 2020, 04:20:54 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 02, 2020, 04:01:23 PM
I was being a bit  Facetious

Geez, ya try to get some real work done for an hour or so and shit hits the fan
Damn right.

That somewhat dubious drop in new cases in GA is more than dubious, today's figure spiked over 4,000.  Seven dat average had dropped under 2,400 which was encouraging, but we all worried it was a holiday reporting thing, not real.

It's good that we here try and "keep up" with developments we come across I think, it helps.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 02, 2020, 04:28:51 PM
I'm getting pretty sick of this shit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 02, 2020, 04:30:11 PM
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/11/absolutely-remarkable-no-one-who-got-modernas-vaccine-trial-developed-severe-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR1Li47OoAZHjIqHe8kjDtiwryu7W3lx93qK887CwTvtVnQ4a3tiBNLRAKY

Nobody vaccinated who got COVID got it seriously.  Good news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 02, 2020, 04:50:25 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 02, 2020, 03:41:38 PM
yep Im not solid on this but there has to be something done to protect the public

and what about kids who have parents not wanting to get them vaccinated

should the law be silent on this also
A vaccine mandate depends on a lot of things... We don't know how long the vaccine confers immunity. We don't know if we're looking at something that will come back annually like the seasonal flu. We don't know if the unvaccinated, as a result of limited immunity, will remain a "virus reservoir" just passing it back and forth amongst themselves such that when the immunity wears off for the rest of us, it'll come roaring back.

I'd need to know more before I support a mandate. At this point, knowing what I know right now, I'll get the vaccine and I will assume that protects me from the idiots out there who won't. If we reach a point where there's no chance of eradicating the virus without a vaccine mandate, I might change my tune. But it's too early. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 02, 2020, 06:32:11 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 02, 2020, 04:01:23 PM
Geez, ya try to get some real work done for an hour or so and shit hits the fan
Stop it that's the ghost peppers talking
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 02, 2020, 06:39:38 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 02, 2020, 04:50:25 PM
A vaccine mandate depends on a lot of things...
May I inquire as to your background?

I think you have probably made the most interesting posts on this thread overall.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 02, 2020, 06:57:43 PM
He's an engineer.


(https://i.imgur.com/8mjJSnc.png)

So am I...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 02, 2020, 06:58:32 PM
I figured, wondered what kind.  Probably from Purdue or sumthin.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 02, 2020, 07:07:39 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 02, 2020, 06:58:32 PM
I figured, wondered what kind.  Probably from Purdue or sumthin.
Electrical. Which starts with the same letter as epidemiologist. So, ya know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 02, 2020, 07:16:41 PM
You can't spell expert epidemiologist without EE.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 02, 2020, 07:22:14 PM
You guys are humorists as well, and cooks.  I guess an EE is good for just about anything.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 02, 2020, 07:38:06 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 02, 2020, 07:22:14 PM
You guys are humorists as well, and cooks.  I guess an EE is good for just about anything.
Except social interaction.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 02, 2020, 07:56:08 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 02, 2020, 07:38:06 PM
Except social interaction.
Yeah that doesn't tend to be our strong suit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 02, 2020, 07:59:50 PM
Texas and California neck and neck on positives today at over 17,000 each

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2020, 07:48:31 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 02, 2020, 07:59:50 PM
Texas and California neck and neck on positives today at over 17,000 each


How many tests?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 03, 2020, 07:58:09 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2020, 07:48:31 AM
How many tests?
dont know the daily testing amount
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 03, 2020, 09:23:48 AM
Most 1-day deaths yet.  And by 20%.  And no one is in charge.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 03, 2020, 09:26:41 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 03, 2020, 09:23:48 AM
Most 1-day deaths yet.  And by 20%.  And no one is in charge.
get use to it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 03, 2020, 10:15:45 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 03, 2020, 09:23:48 AM
Most 1-day deaths yet.  And by 20%.  And no one is in charge.
As I said a few days ago, I'm not quite sure what to make of any numbers this week, even though they look bad and I fully expect that we're going to have some bad stuff coming.

But if you look at the daily numbers, there was a huge drop off on both the 7-day MA trend lines for cases and deaths starting Thanksgiving Day. I don't know how much of the terrible numbers from the last two days are just terrible numbers, and how much is a backlog that piled up over the holiday weekend and is just filtering through. 

I've pretty much written off this week as "I don't know" and it'll be next week that tell us where the true trendlines are. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 03, 2020, 10:21:45 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on December 02, 2020, 06:32:11 PM
Stop it that's the ghost peppers talking
Carolina Reapers this morning
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 03, 2020, 10:25:52 AM
hah, I didn't start it this time
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 03, 2020, 10:29:28 AM
Wow, and the post that started it is still up.


E-CH-OOOOOOO CH-A-M-B-ERRRRRRRR
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 03, 2020, 10:39:40 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 03, 2020, 10:29:28 AM
Wow, and the post that started it is still up.


E-CH-OOOOOOO CH-A-M-B-ERRRRRRRR
Your post about leadership started it, I left that one up too.  You knew exactly what you were saying, you knew exactly who you were baiting.  You continue to act like a very small child, even including your tantrums.

Grow up and stop it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2020, 10:41:00 AM
No one person can be "in charge" of this thing. The task force and CDC have done a good job with guidance for states.

I read that the virus was in Italy last September (2019). 


COVID-19 Circulated in Italy Earlier Than Thought (webmd.com) (https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20201115/covid_19_circulated_in_italy_earlier_than_thought)


It would be really nice to know the truth about this thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 03, 2020, 10:42:16 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2020, 10:41:00 AM
No one person can be "in charge" of this thing. The task force and CDC have done a good job with guidance for states.

I read that the virus was in Italy last September (2019).


COVID-19 Circulated in Italy Earlier Than Thought (webmd.com) (https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20201115/covid_19_circulated_in_italy_earlier_than_thought)


It would be really nice to know the truth about this thing.

Beyond that, I don't WANT the Federal government "in charge."  They're terrible at nearly everything they do. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2020, 10:43:21 AM
Agreed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 03, 2020, 10:52:37 AM
this is a state thing anyway

whats interesting is to compare California's approach to Florida's and Texas's approach

it doesnt seem to make a difference no matter what you do so we might as well send the kiddies to school 

and remain open
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2020, 10:54:08 AM
The CDC and Dr. Fauci have said that the kids should be in school.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 03, 2020, 11:12:41 AM
so has France

and my Doc
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 03, 2020, 11:14:14 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2020, 10:41:00 AM
No one person can be "in charge" of this thing. The task force and CDC have done a good job with guidance for states.

I read that the virus was in Italy last September (2019).


COVID-19 Circulated in Italy Earlier Than Thought (webmd.com) (https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20201115/covid_19_circulated_in_italy_earlier_than_thought)


It would be really nice to know the truth about this thing.
so there's a minute possibility I had it in October
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2020, 11:27:59 AM
Twice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 03, 2020, 11:44:15 AM
Quote from: utee94 on December 02, 2020, 07:56:08 PM
Yeah that doesn't tend to be our strong suit.
You're right straight jacket is a better fit - nothing at all wrong with that though
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 03, 2020, 11:47:56 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on December 03, 2020, 10:21:45 AM
Carolina Reapers this morning
Really?Why bother just plant your lips into a stoked grill or lick car battery terminals
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 03, 2020, 12:59:17 PM
SWEDEN’S INITIAL response to the coronavirus pandemic was mild, keeping younger schoolchildren in class, allowing businesses and restaurants to stay open with distancing, limiting public gatherings to 50 people or fewer and hoping the population would develop immunity to a sufficient level that tighter restrictions would not be needed. Now, Sweden is caught up in a surge of infections and rising deaths, and a needed reconsideration is underway. There are important lessons, including: Don’t try this if you want to save lives.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/swedens-anti-lockdown-experiment-flopped-now-it-faces-a-wave-of-pandemic-pain/2020/12/01/9e90ee28-3344-11eb-8d38-6aea1adb3839_story.html?fbclid=IwAR3Y1YyA-tsmDOErJZsuSLYat6u5LnA9fqxdJhftChgM8yOxAmFNtdPSBPo (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/swedens-anti-lockdown-experiment-flopped-now-it-faces-a-wave-of-pandemic-pain/2020/12/01/9e90ee28-3344-11eb-8d38-6aea1adb3839_story.html?fbclid=IwAR3Y1YyA-tsmDOErJZsuSLYat6u5LnA9fqxdJhftChgM8yOxAmFNtdPSBPo)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 03, 2020, 01:23:24 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 03, 2020, 12:59:17 PM
SWEDEN’S INITIAL response to the coronavirus pandemic was mild, keeping younger schoolchildren in class, allowing businesses and restaurants to stay open with distancing, limiting public gatherings to 50 people or fewer and hoping the population would develop immunity to a sufficient level that tighter restrictions would not be needed. Now, Sweden is caught up in a surge of infections and rising deaths, and a needed reconsideration is underway. There are important lessons, including: Don’t try this if you want to save lives.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/swedens-anti-lockdown-experiment-flopped-now-it-faces-a-wave-of-pandemic-pain/2020/12/01/9e90ee28-3344-11eb-8d38-6aea1adb3839_story.html?fbclid=IwAR3Y1YyA-tsmDOErJZsuSLYat6u5LnA9fqxdJhftChgM8yOxAmFNtdPSBPo (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/swedens-anti-lockdown-experiment-flopped-now-it-faces-a-wave-of-pandemic-pain/2020/12/01/9e90ee28-3344-11eb-8d38-6aea1adb3839_story.html?fbclid=IwAR3Y1YyA-tsmDOErJZsuSLYat6u5LnA9fqxdJhftChgM8yOxAmFNtdPSBPo)


Its one thing to not shut down and something else entirely to just act like it doesnt exist

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 03, 2020, 01:32:32 PM
washington post / opinion
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 03, 2020, 02:48:32 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 03, 2020, 10:52:37 AM
this is a state thing anyway

whats interesting is to compare California's approach to Florida's and Texas's approach

it doesnt seem to make a difference no matter what you do so we might as well send the kiddies to school

and remain open
It WOULD be a state thing.....except the states border each other.  So no, it's not at all a "state thing."  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 03, 2020, 02:58:19 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 03, 2020, 02:48:32 PM
It WOULD be a state thing.....except the states border each other.  So no, it's not at all a "state thing." 
Youre wrong


The Constitution says its a state thing

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 03, 2020, 03:31:02 PM
whatever dingleberry stands behind the podium in DC, past, present, or future

doesn't have the authority to do much vs the virus in each state

this has been attempted recently
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 03, 2020, 04:02:33 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 03, 2020, 03:31:02 PM
whatever dingleberry stands behind the podium in DC, past, present, or future

doesn't have the authority to do much vs the virus in each state

this has been attempted recently
In fact for the federal gov to do anything concerning a states population there has to be a request made by the state for help
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2020, 04:35:18 PM
This is not OK.

Failing grades double and triple — some rising sixfold — amid pandemic learning (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/failing-grades-double-and-triple-some-rising-sixfold-amid-pandemic-learning/ar-BB1bBMkv?li=BBnbcA1)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 03, 2020, 04:42:16 PM
CA about to go into some more stay-at-home orders...

https://www.kcra.com/article/gov-newsom-covid-briefing-dec-3/34862785

Triggered when ICU capacity within a region drops below 15%. Apparently Orange County is almost there, and the harder-hit regions are all expected to be there within a day or two.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2020, 04:51:41 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/PxwLY1A.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2020, 04:53:59 PM
Wisconsin:

(https://i.imgur.com/P7hAcqm.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/EXOKyHk.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 03, 2020, 04:55:10 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2020, 04:35:18 PM
This is not OK.

Failing grades double and triple — some rising sixfold — amid pandemic learning (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/failing-grades-double-and-triple-some-rising-sixfold-amid-pandemic-learning/ar-BB1bBMkv?li=BBnbcA1)

Online school is a complete failure, and the in-person experience is really suffering when teachers have to support multiple learning modes.

All school should be back to in-person full time. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2020, 04:59:54 PM
No question about it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 03, 2020, 06:02:22 PM
Even with the upcoming stay at home orders, I just got emails from both schools. The public plans to stay open for in-person instruction. The charter [which unnecessarily IMHO shut down to distance learning shortly before Thanksgiving with plans to reopen after the new year] is still planning to reopen for in-person learning on schedule Jan 4. 

Not sure what's going on in the rest of the country, but here in Orange County it seems people are still on board with in-person learning for kids.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2020, 06:05:16 PM
That's good. Here too.

Illinois schools are closed, or may as well be. Some in Wisconsin are closed, others are not.

And yes, I'm calling them closed, because there is not much school going on with the internet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 03, 2020, 06:11:44 PM
Our schools  are still split here, some parents/children are still opting for online-only.  Which is not only completely insufficient for them, but also pulls resources away from providing the actual, real, in-person teaching that should be occurring.

The numbers are in and they're ugly,the online experiment has failed.  It shouldn't be an option at this point.  All children in schools in-person full-time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 03, 2020, 06:26:18 PM
I'm still annoyed at how the charter pivoted from in person to distance before Thanksgiving. It was two support staff with positive cases. No teachers. No students. And suddenly we're in distance learning not for a 1 week quarantine or something like that, but until the end of the calendar year.

I'm convinced it was that they know in South OC there are going to be a bunch of people who are acting irresponsibly over the holidays and that they wanted to keep the kids away until that passed. 

But at least they're planning on being back in-person in January. 

Luckily my kids were engaged in the process during distance learning. It's not the same, but they're better than most regarding what they've gotten out of it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 03, 2020, 06:31:41 PM
Just had my first cup of eggnog and of course a touch of cinnamon and oh yeah brandy


cant forget the brandy
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 03, 2020, 06:33:59 PM
My kids didn't get shite out of the online experience and weren't engaged at all.  My normally active, interested, happy children became distant, sullen, morose.  It was heart-breaking.  Their grades were fine but they weren't really getting anything out of it.

They're both back to full time in-person, and the difference in their demeanor is like night and day.  But because their teachers are still supporting online learners, it's more for social reasons, than for scholastic ones.  I'd say they're still only getting maybe 50% of what they should be getting from full-time in-person teaching.  Which I guess is better than the 5% or less they got from online-only, but really not worth all of the effort and expense that everyone is going through to deliver that minimal value.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on December 03, 2020, 06:37:21 PM
Well, F.

MIL has COVID. Got a positive test back today after daily saliva testing at her place of employment. Today is Day 6 from exposure to a live case at her work.  FIL was tested this morning, and hasn't gotten the test results back yet, but he can't taste anything and he's just as sick as she is. 

I realize that with the number of cases in the community, we've been extraordinarily lucky that it took until December 3 before the corona hit really close. Also, MIL would have been in Group 1A for the vaccine once it begins distribution.  

Also, Wednesday's batch of numbers featured 96.7 cases per 100K in Minnesota, which is as bad of a rate as the Dakotas were having the last few weeks. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 03, 2020, 06:41:42 PM
Sorry to hear that GR, you have my best wishes for their improved health and rapid recovery.

Like I've said before, it's not a death sentence, even for old folks.  My MIL and FIL (80 and 82 years old) both had it back in July and they were sick for a week, and weak for another week or two, but they're fine now with no lasting issues.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on December 03, 2020, 06:42:13 PM
Also, if charts and graphs are your thing (and I think most of us here enjoy a good set of charts and graphs), follow David Montgomery on Twitter. He's the data reporter at Minnesota Public Radio, and he's been doing all of the charts I've been posting on here for Minnesota's data.

https://twitter.com/dhmontgomery
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 03, 2020, 06:43:55 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on December 03, 2020, 06:37:21 PM
Well, F.

MIL has COVID. Got a positive test back today after daily saliva testing at her place of employment. Today is Day 6 from exposure to a live case at her work.  FIL was tested this morning, and hasn't gotten the test results back yet, but he can't taste anything and he's just as sick as she is.

I realize that with the number of cases in the community, we've been extraordinarily lucky that it took until December 3 before the corona hit really close. Also, MIL would have been in Group 1A for the vaccine once it begins distribution. 

Also, Wednesday's batch of numbers featured 96.7 cases per 100K in Minnesota, which is as bad of a rate as the Dakotas were having the last few weeks.
Is MIL your wife?

Does she have symptoms?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2020, 06:44:48 PM
Best wishes my friend. Hopefully they can sail through like most do, with minimal suffering.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 03, 2020, 06:46:12 PM
oh I guess MIL stands for my in laws right?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 03, 2020, 06:46:40 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 03, 2020, 06:43:55 PM
Is MIL your wife?


Maybe in Texas...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 03, 2020, 06:47:48 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 03, 2020, 06:46:40 PM
Maybe in Texas...
nope we generally go after the cousins
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 03, 2020, 06:49:31 PM
Biden just announced that everybody should wear masks for 100 days

why in hell didnt we think of that

that should do it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2020, 06:51:15 PM
In 100 days all of us (well, most all of us, who actually leave our homes) will have had the damn thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on December 03, 2020, 06:55:07 PM
MIL means mother-in-law. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 03, 2020, 06:56:33 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on December 03, 2020, 06:55:07 PM
MIL means mother-in-law.
I was close

hope she is ok
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 03, 2020, 07:04:32 PM
Quote from: utee94 on December 03, 2020, 06:33:59 PM
My kids didn't get shite out of the online experience and weren't engaged at all.  My normally active, interested, happy children became distant, sullen, morose.  It was heart-breaking.  Their grades were fine but they weren't really getting anything out of it.

They're both back to full time in-person, and the difference in their demeanor is like night and day.  But because their teachers are still supporting online learners, it's more for social reasons, than for scholastic ones.  I'd say they're still only getting maybe 50% of what they should be getting from full-time in-person teaching.  Which I guess is better than the 5% or less they got from online-only, but really not worth all of the effort and expense that everyone is going through to deliver that minimal value.
For my kids, the teachers aren't trying to teach a class of mixed in-person and online. Are they doing that for yours?

For mine, they split it up such that the kids who are in-person are getting teachers 100% dedicated to in-person, and the distance learners are getting completely different teachers. I suppose for middle school a teacher might teach a certain subject for a period 100% in person and then teach the same subject another period online, but the kids aren't mixed in the same class.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 03, 2020, 07:06:07 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 03, 2020, 06:56:33 PM
I was close

hope she is ok
Just so you know, MIL and MILF are two COMPLETELY different things too...

Quote from: GopherRock on December 03, 2020, 06:55:07 PM
MIL means mother-in-law.
Hope she's okay, GR... Good luck!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 03, 2020, 07:13:31 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2020, 04:53:59 PM
Wisconsin:

(https://i.imgur.com/P7hAcqm.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/EXOKyHk.png)
Badge, you know more about what's going on in Wisconsin than I do...

To what do you attribute the drop in cases? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2020, 07:18:12 PM
Better behavior.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 03, 2020, 07:28:21 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 03, 2020, 07:06:07 PM
Just so you know, MIL and MILF are two COMPLETELY different things too...
Hope she's okay, GR... Good luck!
OK Im not completely stupid 

but thanks for clarifying
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2020, 07:40:29 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 03, 2020, 07:06:07 PM
Just so you know, MIL and MILF are two COMPLETELY different things too...

I'm married to a MILF.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 03, 2020, 07:42:51 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2020, 07:40:29 PM
I'm married to a MILF.
You married up...

...like an engineer should. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2020, 07:49:07 PM
F yeah. California girl. I wish they could all be (not now really).

I snagged a good one. Lucky me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2020, 08:24:05 PM
2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary In-Season Burden Estimates | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm)


It would be good to know how many people died from the flu, who were misdiagnosed, from 9/2019 through 3/2020.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on December 03, 2020, 10:17:32 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2020, 07:18:12 PM
Better behavior.
In other words, hundreds of thousands of men and women took to the woods and fields of Wisconsin for 10 days the week before Thanksgiving wearing blaze orange at a very healthy distance from one another.  Some had masks, which were orange.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 04, 2020, 07:04:18 AM
Never thought about that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on December 04, 2020, 07:07:32 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2020, 07:49:07 PM
F yeah. California girl. I wish they could all be (not now really).

I snagged a good one. Lucky me.
Ca? Where from?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 04, 2020, 07:18:25 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 03, 2020, 07:06:07 PM
Just so you know, MIL and MILF are two COMPLETELY different things too...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCc-RWIp7XU
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 04, 2020, 07:27:25 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on December 04, 2020, 07:07:32 AM
Ca? Where from?
Born in Walnut Creek, lived all over CA and the rest of the country as her dad moved jobs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 04, 2020, 08:25:36 AM
Flu season arrives early, driven by an unexpected virus (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/06/us-flu-season-arrives-early-driven-by-an-unexpected-virus.html)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 04, 2020, 08:32:21 AM
Unusual type of flu virus is dominating early start to this year’s flu season | Ars Technica (https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/12/this-years-flu-season-is-off-to-an-early-unusual-start-cdc-says/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 04, 2020, 08:35:59 AM
Flu Is Now Widespread In 10 States, Including California, Texas, Alabama (forbes.com) (https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2019/12/04/flu-is-now-widespread-in-10-states-including-california-texas-alabama/?sh=42e56ffa49a4)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 04, 2020, 02:17:27 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/Uv5xeRn.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 04, 2020, 03:03:27 PM
Is the purpose of those three news stories to justify that COVID was here sooner than thought? 

Because at least two of the three specifically call out that the strains were split between Influenza A and Influenza B, not that there was some strange coronavirus that had appeared. I'm assuming that if they know enough to say it was split between Influenza A and B, they know enough to differentiate between the flu and a coronavirus. 

I'd buy the argument if we were seeing similar symptoms earlier and didn't know the source, but in this case they determined the source. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 04, 2020, 03:14:44 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 04, 2020, 03:03:27 PM
Is the purpose of those three news stories to justify that COVID was here sooner than thought?

Because at least two of the three specifically call out that the strains were split between Influenza A and Influenza B, not that there was some strange coronavirus that had appeared. I'm assuming that if they know enough to say it was split between Influenza A and B, they know enough to differentiate between the flu and a coronavirus.

I'd buy the argument if we were seeing similar symptoms earlier and didn't know the source, but in this case they determined the source.
I was poking around to see what was out there. Not trying to prove anything, but I do know many doctors, including mine, feel that there was a lot of mis-diagnosis going on in November, December and January.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 04, 2020, 03:16:05 PM
Start of another spike in Wisconsin, or just a blip? Next week is KEY here.

(https://i.imgur.com/6Lnzpyc.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 04, 2020, 03:35:13 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 04, 2020, 03:14:44 PM
I was poking around to see what was out there. Not trying to prove anything, but I do know many doctors, including mine, feel that there was a lot of mis-diagnosis going on in November, December and January.
I am honestly quite sympathetic to the idea that there was some misdiagnosis. I think it might have been here sooner, but wasn't particularly widespread. 

I'm not sure how much sampling they do of people who have flu symptoms to identify the actual root virus as the cause, but clearly from these articles they were doing enough random sampling to know the specific strains they were seeing. If they had LARGE numbers of people exhibiting flu symptoms and not carrying either Influenza A or B virus, I would think it would have raised red flags. 

So even if it was here, I'm not sure the numbers were high enough to make a difference.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 04, 2020, 03:40:17 PM
yes, I was tested for Flu A and B, and strep in October.  All negative, but I was sick.

I wasn't misdiagnosed.

Gave me antibiotics, didn't help a bit 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 04, 2020, 05:05:25 PM
Where do you suppose you got it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 04, 2020, 05:29:45 PM
convention

hell, who knows

I wasn't traveling out of the country
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 05, 2020, 11:25:32 AM
SoCal offices trips the 15% ICU capacity trigger. Stay-at-home in effect in 48 hours. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 05, 2020, 12:17:58 PM
That sucks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 05, 2020, 10:11:17 PM
California hit 25,000 plus positives today


I guess they aint shutting down enough

of the 25,000, 8,000 were from the LA area
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 05, 2020, 10:18:37 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/aaUKq2j.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 05, 2020, 10:28:01 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 05, 2020, 10:11:17 PM
California hit 25,000 plus positives today


I guess they aint shutting down enough

of the 25,000, 8,000 were from the LA area
It's even worse than that for the "LA area". The counties of Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, and Riverside together accounted for about 17K cases. 

You can argue that all of those are the "LA area". 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 05, 2020, 10:39:01 PM
could the homeless be a major cause

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 05, 2020, 11:23:46 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 05, 2020, 10:39:01 PM
could the homeless be a major cause


Doubt it. Mostly selfish people gathering IMHO. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 06, 2020, 07:33:09 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/c0UIXUJ.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 06, 2020, 07:37:25 AM
Wisconsin:

(https://i.imgur.com/nts9EGr.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 06, 2020, 08:49:22 AM
Hilton Head has a mandatory mask ordinance in effect.  Compliance is spotty, maybe a bit over half.

Nobody on the beach, which should be OK.

Weather is nice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 06, 2020, 09:15:02 AM
Nothing is closed here, and there are no mandates aside from local, but most people I notice are behaving properly. 

It was different on the other side. Masks were about 70-30, and the restaurants were more crowded, but still outdoors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 06, 2020, 09:46:00 PM
In its weekly COVID-19 status report, the Siouxland District Health Department wrote that the percentage of virus tests coming back positive has been in decline for two consecutive weeks. The week ended Nov. 22 saw a positivity rate of 15.1 percent, down from 18.4 percent the week prior. The week ended Nov. 29 saw the positivity rate slide to 13.2 percent, though this figure is expected to change as more test results from that period are added to the tally.

"With both indicators showing a decline, they are moving in the right direction," Siouxland District Health wrote in the report.

The health department's latest report says that a target positivity rate would be around 4 or 5 percent. Months earlier, the health department wrote that 2 percent would be a goal if the virus were to be contained -- but a 4 to 5 percent target remains aspirational, much less 2 percent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 07, 2020, 07:28:25 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/wFLGAwm.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 07, 2020, 07:34:08 AM
Wisconsin:

(https://i.imgur.com/MMZCWfU.png)

This is the week we've been pointing to. 5-7 days for symptoms, and we are now 10 days past Thanksgiving.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on December 07, 2020, 08:33:59 AM
Unsurprisingly, my FIL also has COVID. He was tested last Monday but didn't get results back until late yesterday afternoon.

Both of them are doing well. If anything, they both sounded better yesterday than they did Friday.

Now we're trying to figure out what day Day 0 was for him.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 07, 2020, 08:42:59 AM
Thanks for the update. Glad they are doing better.

6 days for a result seems long. CVS is turning them around in one day now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 07, 2020, 08:55:28 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on December 07, 2020, 08:33:59 AM
Unsurprisingly, my FIL also has COVID. He was tested last Monday but didn't get results back until late yesterday afternoon.

Both of them are doing well. If anything, they both sounded better yesterday than they did Friday.

Now we're trying to figure out what day Day 0 was for him.
experts say 5 days prior to first symptoms 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 07, 2020, 11:44:30 AM
Good infographic... Highlights that there is not exactly a single perfect answer, but that when all the answers are put together, it makes us all safer.


(https://i.imgur.com/AWhBTTg.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 07, 2020, 11:46:23 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 07, 2020, 08:55:28 AM
experts say 5 days prior to first symptoms
That's the median incubation period. Some people may be shorter or longer. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 07, 2020, 02:45:53 PM
Today's update:



(https://i.imgur.com/aYUT1Zm.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/ZF8zlZu.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/MbnK4rj.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 07, 2020, 02:49:33 PM
Wisconsin update:


(https://i.imgur.com/MBLtA9W.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/kiSjKmT.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on December 07, 2020, 03:04:51 PM
There doesn't appear to be a Thanksgiving-fueled COVID surge in Minnesota, either.

https://twitter.com/dhmontgomery/status/1335995283319230464?s=20
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 07, 2020, 03:52:41 PM
At what level are restrictions in Minnesota?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 07, 2020, 03:58:42 PM
We're not really seeing a Tday surge in Austin, but we continue to see relatively high levels that have been ongoing since mid-October.  I was hoping we'd see it tail off by now, but we haven't.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 07, 2020, 04:07:16 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on December 07, 2020, 03:04:51 PM
There doesn't appear to be a Thanksgiving-fueled COVID surge in Minnesota, either.
Bear in mind that if you look at the 7-day MA for new cases in both Wisconsin and Minnesota, it was falling sharply prior to Thanksgiving. Then in the last week it flattened. 

We haven't seen a corresponding surge UP from there, which is good... But a good trend is no longer continuing, which is not. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 07, 2020, 04:08:30 PM
We should know a lot more by Friday, given incubation periods, symptoms and more test results coming in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 07, 2020, 04:09:24 PM
fingers crossed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on December 07, 2020, 05:41:52 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 07, 2020, 03:52:41 PM
At what level are restrictions in Minnesota?
No seated dining or booze. Youth sports are paused, and gyms and fitness centers are closed. Reception areas are closed, and any events and entertainment that involves mass gathering is closed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 07, 2020, 06:05:46 PM
Not sure state-by-state whether you can suss out Thanksgiving vs normal spread.

But at a national level, it just keeps going up. We just passed >200K daily cases on the 7-day MA, and our 7-day MA on daily deaths is higher than it ever was during the Mar/Apr peak. 

Today is already higher than Nov 30, so when the numbers fully come in we'll see both 7-day MA go even higher, and we've got a few hours more reporting to come in today. 

I don't know if this is a Thanksgiving surge or not. But either way it's the wrong direction.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 07, 2020, 10:46:01 PM
Iowa is modifying the way it records COVID-19 deaths, a change that will result in a net increase in the number of Iowans who will be recorded as having died of the virus.

Kelly Garcia, the interim director of the state public health department, told reporters Monday night that the state will now record COVID-19 deaths based on federal cause-of-death coding, which is based on the death record completed by the health care provider.

The change will result in a net addition of 177 additional COVID-related deaths in Iowa as of Monday evening, pushing the state total for the pandemic to 2,898.

“We’ve recognized a need to adjust our death reporting,” Garcia said.

Under the old system, the state recorded a COVID-19 death when a positive test result in the state system matched with a death certificate.

Under that old system, if an individual’s death was deemed COVID-19-related by a physician but the deceased did not have a positive test on file, the state did not record that as a COVID-19-related death.

Under the new system, only the COVID-19 cause-of-death coding is required for the state to recognize it as a COVID-19-related death. A matching positive test is not required.

Garcia said the change will provide better consistency in reporting between county, state and federal government public health agencies, and will better enable researchers in the future to examine the impact of COVID-19 on Iowa.


With the change, the state’s public COVID-19 data will change Tuesday morning, Garcia said. The new recording system will be applied retroactively to the start of the pandemic in March. Many counties will see an increase in total COVID-19-related deaths, while some will see a net decrease.

About 16% of the net statewide increase came from Linn County, where the number of COVID-19-related deaths rose from 173 to 201 as of Monday night. Scott County rose by four from 99 to 103. Black Hawk County went up from 156 to 159.

In Woodbury County, deaths dropped from 140 to 126 as of Monday night with the change. Polk County’s total dropped from 357 to 353, and Johnson County deaths from 41 to 39.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on December 07, 2020, 11:29:06 PM
Vaccine arrives at my wife's hospital in 10 days.  Sounds like two doses over about 4 weeks or so.

Will be interested to see how this is allocated throughout their system.  Im doubting she's amongst the very first wave since she's in outpatient surgery, and only is in inpatient situations on a rare basis.   A nursing home im familiar with has a similar time table for doses.

Interestingly it isnt mandatory at the hospital though I doubt they will see too many holdouts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 08, 2020, 08:04:59 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on December 07, 2020, 05:41:52 PM
No seated dining or booze. Youth sports are paused, and gyms and fitness centers are closed. Reception areas are closed, and any events and entertainment that involves mass gathering is closed.
That is a lot like Illinois.

That state is averaging more cases, less tests and more deaths than Florida, which has 9 Million more people and is open.

These lockdowns need to be re-evaluated, I believe. They do not appear to be slowing cases, and they are killing small businesses.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 08, 2020, 09:26:29 AM
LONDON (AP) — A retired British shop clerk received the first shot in the country’s Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine Tuesday, the start of an unprecedented global immunization effort intended to offer a route out of a pandemic that has killed 1.5 million.

Margaret Keenan, who turns 91 next week, got the shot at 6:31 a.m. on what public health officials have dubbed “V-Day.” She was first in line at University Hospital Coventry, one of several hospitals around the country that are handling the initial phase of the United Kingdom’s program. As luck would have it, the second injection went to a man named William Shakespeare, an 81-year-old who hails from Warwickshire, the county where the bard was born.


__________________________________

so the real world trial begins
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 08, 2020, 09:30:21 AM
Really looking forward to the results here. If these older folks show little to no side affects, it would be amazing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on December 08, 2020, 10:17:28 AM
Ditto. The light at the end of the tunnel is starting to come into view.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 08, 2020, 10:35:01 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 08, 2020, 09:30:21 AM
Really looking forward to the results here. If these older folks show little to no side affects, it would be amazing.
that would be nice, but 95+% rate of no COVID would be better
even a crappy heat ache or fatigue or knock you on yer ass for 48 hours would be well worth it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 08, 2020, 10:43:17 AM
is there any allowance for folks who have already had covid in the vaccine dist plan

seems like a waste if cured virus folks get the vaccine before ones never infected
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 08, 2020, 11:01:33 AM
I'm still getting it when available.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on December 08, 2020, 03:32:17 PM
Gov. Walz's press conference just ended. Initial allocation in MN expected to jab ~90K people. Timeline to begin vaccinations is week between Christmas and New Years.

Both Walz and MDH Commissioner Jan Malcom sound as optimistic as they've been since this started.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 08, 2020, 03:40:22 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 08, 2020, 11:01:33 AM
I'm still getting it when available.
me too
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 08, 2020, 04:06:09 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/UKpMVwM.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 08, 2020, 04:07:04 PM
Wisconsin:

(https://i.imgur.com/OQ3KZWq.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on December 08, 2020, 05:16:29 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 08, 2020, 04:07:04 PM
Wisconsin:

[img width=234.333 height=289]https://i.imgur.com/OQ3KZWq.png[/img]
So if gun deer season were 10x longer we might really put a stop to this?  Of course there will be other casualties...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 08, 2020, 11:14:46 PM
Hey Cincy, tell us about Sweden.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 09, 2020, 07:56:32 AM
Sweden:

(https://i.imgur.com/fy3J5gz.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 09, 2020, 03:18:47 PM
Wisconsin update:

(https://i.imgur.com/in1a9bS.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 09, 2020, 03:43:50 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/a4Goibl.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 09, 2020, 04:22:14 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 08, 2020, 11:14:46 PM
Hey Cincy, tell us about Sweden.
France is more interesting now, I think.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 09, 2020, 04:24:37 PM
Sweden had a spike, but their deaths/1M didn't rise appreciably compared to the summer. Deaths/1M are still lower than a lot of places in Europe (and the US), but higher than their peers.

Nothing's really changed there either way. If anything they weathered the 2nd wave better than France, the UK, and certainly better than the US. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 09, 2020, 04:35:10 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 09, 2020, 04:24:37 PM
Sweden had a spike, but their deaths/1M didn't rise appreciably compared to the summer. Deaths/1M are still lower than a lot of places in Europe (and the US), but higher than their peers.

Nothing's really changed there either way. If anything they weathered the 2nd wave better than France, the UK, and certainly better than the US.
Yup, that's what I see as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 09, 2020, 04:59:53 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 09, 2020, 04:22:14 PM
France is more interesting now, I think.
He was just trying to bait you. I'm sure you know this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 09, 2020, 05:04:21 PM
Here is the case data for my development. It's a bubble.

(https://i.imgur.com/j6AN1R5.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 09, 2020, 08:55:09 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 09, 2020, 04:59:53 PM
He was just trying to bait you. I'm sure you know this.
Show him some respect.  He's not a little fish.  I'm chumming the water for a big score!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 09, 2020, 10:59:49 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 09, 2020, 08:55:09 PM
Show him some respect.  He's not a little fish.  I'm chumming the water for a big score!
why
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 10, 2020, 12:40:00 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 09, 2020, 10:59:49 PM
why
Because his obsession with Sweden seemed to be wavering.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 10, 2020, 07:19:20 AM
My interest as always is in unusual approaches and differing results.

France locked down but left schools open.  The result was quite interesting, to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 10, 2020, 08:16:45 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 09, 2020, 08:55:09 PM
Show him some respect.  He's not a little fish.  I'm chumming the water for a big score!
What are you trying to score?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 10, 2020, 09:00:09 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 09, 2020, 08:55:09 PM
Show him some respect.  He's not a little fish.  I'm chumming the water for a big score!
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 10, 2020, 08:16:45 AM
What are you trying to score?
Sympathy & attention would be my guess or meds.The Medicine Man couldn't help
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 10, 2020, 01:18:48 PM
"There is a lot more spread that has gone on in the last two months, and we anticipate into the winter time that this will be a more significant challenge for us," said Bob Willhelm, Vice Chancellor for Research and Development at UNL.

To help avoid potential spikes the University is introducing much more stringent testing protocols.

Students will be required to have a negative COVID test before coming back to campus in the spring and regular tests throughout the semester.

"Faculty and staff who are working on campus will be tested on a periodic basis and students will be tested on a periodic basis. Every other week students will be tested and faculty and staff will be tested at the same frequency," said Willhelm.

All of this testing is provided through new 24 hour saliva based tests and the results will be available for each student on a smartphone app they can download.

Alternatives will be available for students without smartphones.

While regular testing will be required for students and staff they will still have an opportunity to test should they be exposed or show symptoms.

"we continue to be very committed to offering a full college experience for the students we have on campus. We are operating our research and engagement activities in Lincoln and across the state at a very high rate. its important to do, this its important we continue to approach this in the safest manner," said Willhelm.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 10, 2020, 01:28:55 PM
As of Wednesday morning, nearly 250,000 Iowans have been confirmed infected with COVID-19 since the pandemic began and 3,000 Iowans have died.

3.15 million people in Iowa

(https://i.imgur.com/l4p101S.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on December 10, 2020, 01:37:48 PM
Minnesota today

https://twitter.com/dhmontgomery/status/1337082018341945344?s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on December 10, 2020, 01:38:54 PM
"The 7 day positivity rate is below 10% for the first time since November 1"

https://twitter.com/dhmontgomery/status/1337083607702065153?s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 10, 2020, 01:47:49 PM
I could not read GA data whilst on vacation, it's not good at all.  The state is back to the previous highs, 7 day average over 3900 new cases reported per day now.

I expected this, I guess we all did.  I saw a lot of poor behaviours over the Holidays.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 10, 2020, 03:40:20 PM
On the "poor behavior" front, my ex wants to take the kids to a big family Christmas get-together on Dec 19th. It's semi-outside (i.e. outdoors but in a big tent). She says they'll all be masked and each family grouping will segregate from others. I don't know exact numbers, but I'm guessing it might be 10 or more households. 

That's my weekend with the kids. Before COVID got so bad, the plan was that she was going to pick them up on the 19th and bring them back the morning of the 20th. 

I told her I didn't think it was a good idea to take them, but if it was THAT important, then she can pick them up on the 19th and keep them until our next scheduled transfer (Jan 2). 

So I get to do my "Christmas Eve" on Fri Dec 18 and "Christmas Morning" Sat Dec 19, and then I'm kidless until 2021. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 10, 2020, 03:57:26 PM
I don't see much problem with a tent. The problem with true indoors is the recirculated air that literally blows anything and everything from the intake, throughout the space.  That's not going to occur in a tent.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 10, 2020, 04:03:52 PM
I'm sorry, I'm honestly not trying to start something here, but the numbers are telling us something obvious:  we have a large portion of the population that thinks having the right to do something means they must do it.  

You have the right to be selfish and irresponsible.
But it doesn't mean you have to be.

You have the right to own a gun.
But you don't have to.

You have the right to die from sexual asphyxiation.
But that's no way to go.

You have the right not to wear a mask around other people.
But maybe you should.


This is the difference between us and Sweden, us and South Korea, us and just about every other country on earth.  And it's embarrassing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 10, 2020, 04:04:17 PM
Quote from: utee94 on December 10, 2020, 03:57:26 PM
I don't see much problem with a tent. The problem with true indoors is the recirculated air that literally blows anything and everything from the intake, throughout the space.  That's not going to occur in a tent.
Granted since I'm not part of that family any more I can't speak too much to what they're doing now. However in the past when they did that (because it grew to be too many people for a true indoor celebration) it wasn't some EZ-UP with open sides and good ventilation. It was one of those big heavy things with solid sides, and only a small entrance at one end. 

So it's better than indoors, but it's not really "outside" either. 

Heck, here in SoCal I only have "recirculated" air indoors for about 4-6 weeks in the middle of the summer. The entire rest of the year I don't run the heater or the A/C, so does that make my house as safe as a tent? ;-) 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 10, 2020, 04:14:52 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 10, 2020, 04:03:52 PM
You have the right to be selfish and irresponsible.
But it doesn't mean you have to be.

You have the right not to wear a mask around other people.
But maybe you should.
There's a degree that I, as a libertarian, believe in the right to be selfish and irresponsible. I think that seat belt laws for cars and helmet laws for motorcycles are an infringement on our rights. 

But you wouldn't catch me in a car without a seat belt or on a motorcycle without a helmet. I have the right to be stupid; I also choose not to exercise that right. 

I'm not sure that I agree that you have the right to not wear a mask around other people in the middle of a pandemic, though. For a very simple reason: masks are only partly about self-protection. They're even more about protecting others FROM you. 

In my city, you can own a gun. In my city, you can fire a gun (at a human or animal) if you believe they are a legitimate threat to your person or other persons. However, you are NOT legally allowed to fire a gun within city limits otherwise. I can't go into my backyard and set up some targets and just start plinking. Because the population density here is so high that even if I had no intent to hurt someone, the chances of it happening are too high if we allow people to be popping off guns within the city. Where my BIL lives in Oregon, he can go out into his pasture behind his house and start plinking, because the conditions are different there.

A mask mandate in the middle of a pandemic is a much smaller example of the same thing. People think they don't have COVID just the same way they think that if they're plinking their gun in their backyard they're responsible enough not to hurt anyone. But there's a negative externality there that if a BUNCH of people in a city are plinking at targets in their backyard, eventually someone's gonna get hurt, and if you have large-scale non-masking in a heavily populated area, you're going to spread the virus far wider than if you didn't--even if nobody who spread it knew they had it. 

So we have mask mandates that say that if you're in a situation indoors, or if you're outdoors in an area where you can't responsibly distance from others, you have to wear a mask. Given the pandemic, I don't see this as a rights issue. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 10, 2020, 04:16:30 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 10, 2020, 04:14:52 PM
I'm not sure that I agree that you have the right to not wear a mask around other people in the middle of a pandemic, though. For a very simple reason: masks are only partly about self-protection. They're even more about protecting others FROM you.

Of course this is true.
But there's a lot more cities and towns not mandating it than mandating it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 10, 2020, 04:17:30 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 10, 2020, 04:14:52 PM

So we have mask mandates that say that if you're in a situation indoors, or if you're outdoors in an area where you can't responsibly distance from others, you have to wear a mask. Given the pandemic, I don't see this as a rights issue.
The anti-mask crowd aren't really ones for context.  They see everything as a rights issue.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 10, 2020, 04:20:45 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 10, 2020, 04:04:17 PM
Granted since I'm not part of that family any more I can't speak too much to what they're doing now. However in the past when they did that (because it grew to be too many people for a true indoor celebration) it wasn't some EZ-UP with open sides and good ventilation. It was one of those big heavy things with solid sides, and only a small entrance at one end.

So it's better than indoors, but it's not really "outside" either.

Heck, here in SoCal I only have "recirculated" air indoors for about 4-6 weeks in the middle of the summer. The entire rest of the year I don't run the heater or the A/C, so does that make my house as safe as a tent? ;-)

Well yeah, a plastic sweatbox isn't what I pictured when you said tent. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 10, 2020, 04:20:52 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 10, 2020, 04:16:30 PM
Of course this is true.
But there's a lot more cities and towns not mandating it than mandating it.
I'm not going to get into the politics of it. I think the fact that it got so politicized is sad. 

Without getting into the politics though, I think it's important that we don't get into a blame game over why it got politicized (we all know the players and their motivations), without recognizing that mask wearing ALSO got completely politicized during the Spanish Flu. 

None of our current politicians, on either side, were in power at that time. Yet it still got politicized, along very similar lines (people fighting against masks based on their rights).  

So maybe this is bigger than any individual pol...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 10, 2020, 04:24:39 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 10, 2020, 04:20:52 PM
I'm not going to get into the politics of it. I think the fact that it got so politicized is sad.

Without getting into the politics though, I think it's important that we don't get into a blame game over why it got politicized (we all know the players and their motivations), without recognizing that mask wearing ALSO got completely politicized during the Spanish Flu.

None of our current politicians, on either side, were in power at that time. Yet it still got politicized, along very similar lines (people fighting against masks based on their rights). 

So maybe this is bigger than any individual pol...

It's also not limited to the USA, which is what makes OAM's constant tirades against his own country so petty and pointless.

There are anti-maskers all over the world.  There are anti-mask protests all over the world.

And as far as I know, nobody in the USA has been brutally murdered for suggesting someone else wear a mask, but that's not a true statement for France:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53367432

OAM is simply looking for reasons to be embarrassed about his home country, without ever looking further at what's happening around the globe.  Talk about denying any meaningful context.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 10, 2020, 04:24:52 PM
Keep in mind we are talking about a virus where more then 98% of those who catch it recovers

and in fact if you eliminate folks over 60 its more then 99% recover

Im not saying no precautions should be taken but should Christmas be cancelled because of it

I dont think so
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 10, 2020, 04:41:54 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/7PWo92C.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 10, 2020, 04:42:40 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/ypIXv8I.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 10, 2020, 04:45:09 PM
Wisconsin

(https://i.imgur.com/1gqVevU.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/pvKpWWO.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 10, 2020, 04:49:58 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 10, 2020, 03:40:20 PM
On the "poor behavior" front, my ex wants to take the kids to a big family Christmas get-together on Dec 19th. It's semi-outside (i.e. outdoors but in a big tent). She says they'll all be masked and each family grouping will segregate from others. I don't know exact numbers, but I'm guessing it might be 10 or more households.
Tough call,what if there is a downpour and it gets unseasonably cool.Then you have crowding indoors or everyone splits.Would she agree to that?

PS - just saw the 10 or more HOUSEHOLDS not individuals.How vigilant do you think she could be.I'mean once she gets a yakin' the guard could be down
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 10, 2020, 04:55:28 PM
Honestly, I would not allow it. BWar said that she tells him the families will be segregated. Well, if so, then why get together in a group like that?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 10, 2020, 04:55:52 PM
Some metrics for FL:

(https://i.imgur.com/JGSjFfG.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 10, 2020, 05:03:08 PM
I told her flat out I didn't think it was a good idea to take them, and offered her two choices. Leave them with me on the 19th and they just don't go (my preference), or she takes them but she doesn't bring them back to me he next day and subject me to the risk of her idiocy. 

She chose the latter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 10, 2020, 05:03:11 PM
I don't think requiring masks is a violation of folks rights that is severe enough to get worried about.

It's not a big deal.  For those folks that it is a big deal, health issue or whatever, it's not required.

Some may think they should have the right to go out in public w/o any clothes on - Naked

there are some rights I'd want protected badly enough to make a fuss or fight about.  Wearing a little paper mask isn't one of them.

and no, giving up the right to go maskless isn't going to lead to giving up much more important rights
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 10, 2020, 05:06:29 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 10, 2020, 04:55:28 PM
Honestly, I would not allow it. BWar said that she tells him the families will be segregated. Well, if so, then why get together in a group like that?
Bingo, agree with that completely.  If it really is in a plastic sweatbox and not an open tent, then there's no way 10 families can remain as segregated as they'd need to be, to maintain safe distance.  So then, what's the point?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 10, 2020, 05:11:12 PM
Ya why bother if they're going to sit distant and :051bye:-wasted trip
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 10, 2020, 05:54:52 PM
Looks like the FDA has approved vaccine for distribution

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/12/10/pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-final-review-vrbpac-fda/3850826001/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 10, 2020, 05:58:05 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 10, 2020, 04:03:52 PM
This is the difference between us and Sweden, us and South Korea, us and just about every other country on earth.  And it's embarrassing.
Welp, I was gonna let you slide here, but I have to tell ya that you are not correct. There is no need to be embarrassed.

My friends from Munich visited our home the other day. They own properties in Germany (duh), Italy, France, Holland and Croatia.

The anti-maskers are in all of those places - about as much, or more, as they are here. They've seen more masking in Florida than they have in all of those places, except Holland.

I can see Holland for sure. And I know, because we spoke (Zoom) with our Amsterdam friends on Sunday and they said almost everyone wears masks.

OK, carry on. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 10, 2020, 05:58:45 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 10, 2020, 05:54:52 PM
Looks like the FDA has approved vaccine for distribution

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/12/10/pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-final-review-vrbpac-fda/3850826001/
We should be all good by summer - assuming most of the population gets it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 10, 2020, 06:03:13 PM
Quote from: utee94 on December 10, 2020, 04:24:39 PM
It's also not limited to the USA, which is what makes OAM's constant tirades against his own country so petty and pointless.

There are anti-maskers all over the world.  There are anti-mask protests all over the world.

And as far as I know, nobody in the USA has been brutally murdered for suggesting someone else wear a mask, but that's not a true statement for France:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53367432

OAM is simply looking for reasons to be embarrassed about his home country, without ever looking further at what's happening around the globe.  Talk about denying any meaningful context.
You're just so completely wrong.
Follow the logic here:
I'm constantly assured here that the US is the best country in the world.  So in other words, exceptional.
You specify the US is just like other countries in this stupid thing the masses are doing.
And you somehow fail to make the connection that if you're right about American exceptionalism AND arguing that the US is just like all these other countries in this stupid behavior......that does not compute.  

You're basically agreeing with me while slamming me.  You proclaim exceptionalism WHILE noting how common and mundane the US is.  

WTF?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 10, 2020, 06:04:01 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 10, 2020, 04:24:52 PM
Keep in mind we are talking about a virus where more then 98% of those who catch it recovers

and in fact if you eliminate folks over 60 
If we eliminated them, this board would be a ghost town.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 10, 2020, 06:11:04 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 10, 2020, 06:03:13 PM
You're just so completely wrong.
Follow the logic here:
I'm constantly assured here that the US is the best country in the world.  So in other words, exceptional.
You specify the US is just like other countries in this stupid thing the masses are doing.
And you somehow fail to make the connection that if you're right about American exceptionalism AND arguing that the US is just like all these other countries in this stupid behavior......that does not compute. 

You're basically agreeing with me while slamming me.  You proclaim exceptionalism WHILE noting how common and mundane the US is. 

WTF?

I reject your strawman portrayal of my position. 

I don't want to accuse you of being deliberately deceitful, nor of being incredibly stupid, so I'll just allow that perhaps you're conflating the views of multiple people you've had disagreements with.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 10, 2020, 06:12:44 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 10, 2020, 06:04:01 PM
If we eliminated them, this board would be a ghost town. 
I didnt say whack em I said to take them out of the picture

it really doesnt matter cause with a vaccine things will get better and you will have to find something else to bitch about

how long will it take before you allege racism with the way the vaccine is distributed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 10, 2020, 06:16:51 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 10, 2020, 06:12:44 PM
I didnt say whack em I said to take them out of the picture

it really doesnt matter cause with a vaccine things will get better and you will have to find something else to bitch about

how long will it take before you allege racism with the way the vaccine is distributed
That's already a given.  See, that's what makes it systemic.  ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 10, 2020, 06:30:14 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 10, 2020, 06:03:13 PM
You're just so completely wrong.
Follow the logic here:
I'm constantly assured here that the US is the best country in the world.  So in other words, exceptional.
You specify the US is just like other countries in this stupid thing the masses are doing.
And you somehow fail to make the connection that if you're right about American exceptionalism AND arguing that the US is just like all these other countries in this stupid behavior......that does not compute. 

You're basically agreeing with me while slamming me.  You proclaim exceptionalism WHILE noting how common and mundane the US is. 

WTF?
Huh?

You're going to extrapolate one very minor and abnormal crazy reaction to justify that mask adherence vs resistance is the end-all be-all answer for "best country"? 

I've said before the whole "best country" debate is stupid and fruitless, because there are dozens of metrics by which you determine "best" and each individual in the world has their own weightings on how much they value metric A vs B vs X vs Q...

But you can simultaneously believe in American exceptionalism without mask adherence vs resistance proving you wrong.

What exactly is your endgame here, OAM? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 10, 2020, 11:34:32 PM
There isn't one.  
This is all just something to do before we die.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 11, 2020, 12:46:48 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 10, 2020, 04:24:52 PM (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/sports-and-coronavirus/msg292419/#msg292419)
Quote
Keep in mind we are talking about a virus where more then 98% of those who catch it recovers

and in fact if you eliminate folks over 60 

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 10, 2020, 06:04:01 PM
If we eliminated them, this board would be a ghost town. 
If they eliminated you the board would be


(https://susansheehey.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/celebrate.gif)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 11, 2020, 01:17:02 AM
Yes, the crazies would celebrate and the elderly would continue their echo chamber.  I couldn't have chosen a more accurate gif myself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 11, 2020, 01:28:26 AM
Once again you lose the meaning and gist of a post but it's your MO so no worries.Do you get into internet arguments to have some one to talk to?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 11, 2020, 04:45:03 AM
My main fear again is about hospital capacity.  If that starts to get exceeded, we'll have to have more serious interventions, I think.  Otherwise, we do what we're doing and get the vaccine out there asap, which is happening.

I "hear" that hospitals here are shutting down elective surgeries again.  That would make sense as it frees up nurses and orthopedic MDs and beds for COVID use as needed.  It is at least some excess capacity that can be used.

The numbers are not good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 11, 2020, 05:38:22 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 10, 2020, 05:54:52 PM
Looks like the FDA has approved vaccine for distribution

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/12/10/pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-final-review-vrbpac-fda/3850826001/
Not quote yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 11, 2020, 05:44:27 AM
Hilton Head had a posted "mask mandate", ostensibly everywhere, signs up all over about it.  The mask wearing was no different than it is here.  Folks INSIDE a public building wore masks, outside they didn't.  Hardly anyone walking on the beach had a mask on, or walking outside anywhere.

One problem with such an apparently universal mandate is it makes little real sense and leads to widespread public resistance, not because of politics, but because it's unenforceable and makes little sense.  It should read that you need one any time you're inside a building with other people not part of your immediate and outside if you can't maintain distance, duh.

I cannot imagine a cop would write anyone up for not wearing a masking in some parking lot going to their car.

I really don't think some universal mask mandate is a good idea.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 11, 2020, 06:39:48 AM
'We need help,' says Stockholm healthcare chief as COVID fills intensive care wards | Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-sweden-hospitals-idUSKBN28J23M?fbclid=IwAR3cSDgH6xClQrGAjM9Vtff5EEPy8gVL4d4tfOVr9uj8aQIE4MpaspLBOa4)

Sweden apparently is nearing a cliff, not good obviously, but they are still lower than their previous peak.

If we simplify this to deaths per capita (726 per million), they are still lower than that in France, Spain, Italy, and the UK.  They are quite a bit higher than Denmark, Finland, and Norway of course.  

Georgia is at 939 per million.  NY and NJ are more than double that figure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 11, 2020, 08:40:14 AM
Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm)

Some related good news, so far anyway.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 11, 2020, 08:42:22 AM


(https://i.imgur.com/BmPmQ7V.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 11, 2020, 08:52:11 AM
I'm thinking more people got the Flu shot this year than in years past, and that the shot is effective.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 11, 2020, 09:11:45 AM
I think its also very likely folks just dont want to go to the doctor this year
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 11, 2020, 09:13:45 AM
It's likely a combination of things, including better hygiene and mask wearing and distancing and reduced Asian travel.

Hopefully the vaccine is better targeted this year.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 11, 2020, 09:16:44 AM
I don't know anyone who has had a "cold" recently. Has there been a "cold" season?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 11, 2020, 09:22:44 AM
I don't think there is any effort to track cold prevalence, even the flu tracking is a calculation, not a measurement.

Most folks don't see a doctor with a cold (some do of course).

I have not had a cold yet, I probably get 1-2 a winter.  (I'm not counting what I had in February.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 11, 2020, 09:28:19 AM
This is incredible. I wonder how many more there are like this. 300K cases from one conference in Boston. 71K of those ended up in Florida!!

Boston conference in February linked to as many as 300,000 coronavirus cases worldwide | TheHill (https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/529788-boston-conference-in-february-linked-to-as-many-as-300000-coronavirus)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 11, 2020, 09:36:02 AM
I discovered the cause of colds

its called "children"

when my kids were growing up I used to get 2 to 3 colds a year

now they are out of the house my wife and I have not had a cold in 5 years
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 11, 2020, 09:37:46 AM
How many conferences were happening in the US at the same time?  Why would one of them be singular, or unusual, in terms of spread, aside from a conference that simply had no infected attendee?

And aside from some conference, we had "business as usual" congregations, meetings, churches, hotels, bars, concerts, you name it, not to mention cruise ships etc.

Atlanta is a major convention city, and no doubt held major conventions in Jan/Feb as well (none since March).  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 11, 2020, 10:08:51 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 11, 2020, 04:45:03 AM
My main fear again is about hospital capacity.  If that starts to get exceeded, we'll have to have more serious interventions, I think.  Otherwise, we do what we're doing and get the vaccine out there asap, which is happening.

I "hear" that hospitals here are shutting down elective surgeries again.  That would make sense as it frees up nurses and orthopedic MDs and beds for COVID use as needed.  It is at least some excess capacity that can be used.

The numbers are not good.
I think we're down to 4% ICU capacity in Orange County.

Were going to be at the stage of patients who otherwise might live dying due to lack of available care soon if this continues. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 11, 2020, 10:18:35 AM
Georgia Hospital Bed/Ventilator Capacity (arcgis.com) (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/47c1cee4d02542bea35bc3324d6cf5e3)

Georgia in patient bed use is about 85% and appears to be heading higher.  I see differing stats on ICU usage, the one below may be wrong.

Georgia has about 2,909 ICU beds. Based on best available data, we estimate that 72% (2,080) are currently occupied by non-COVID patients. Of the 829 ICU beds remaining, we estimate 882 are needed by COVID cases, or >100% of available beds.

COVID-19 patients fill Georgia hospitals as cases soar (fox5atlanta.com) (https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/covid-19-patients-fill-georgia-hospitals-as-cases-soar)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on December 11, 2020, 10:21:52 AM
Mask mandate won't make any difference because there is no real enforcement of any mandate for 90% of the country.  

I just found out that one of my acquaintances from my hometown lost his dad to COVID.  He was 68.  This makes 5 people, including my own dad, who I personally know that lost their lives due to COVID.  3 of the people I know lived within 1/4 mile of my dad.  Bare in mind that I live in an extremely small town, about 3K people and throw in another 3k from around the surrounding country side.  

Have you lost anybody or personally known anybody who died from COVID?  My mom's cousin is in the hospital on a ventilator right now but he's steady and expected to survive last I heard.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 11, 2020, 10:42:33 AM
I know several people who had the virus but so far no one has passed from it 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 11, 2020, 10:43:49 AM
Same here. No known deaths in my circle.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 11, 2020, 10:50:22 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 11, 2020, 06:39:48 AM
'We need help,' says Stockholm healthcare chief as COVID fills intensive care wards | Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-sweden-hospitals-idUSKBN28J23M?fbclid=IwAR3cSDgH6xClQrGAjM9Vtff5EEPy8gVL4d4tfOVr9uj8aQIE4MpaspLBOa4)

Sweden apparently is nearing a cliff, not good obviously, but they are still lower than their previous peak.

If we simplify this to deaths per capita (726 per million), they are still lower than that in France, Spain, Italy, and the UK.  They are quite a bit higher than Denmark, Finland, and Norway of course. 

Georgia is at 939 per million.  NY and NJ are more than double that figure.
If only per capita took into account the physical density of the populations...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 11, 2020, 11:04:10 AM
Stockholm metro area has about 2.4 million people, almost a quarter of the population of Sweden.  I imagine density is about like that of other Euro cities.

Atlanta metro area is about 6 million, about 60% of the state population, probably more dispersed than many other metro areas of similar size because there are no geographic boundaries.

I have no idea how one could somehow couple some stat on population density with deaths per capita sensibly.  Density in nursing homes is obviously very high.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on December 11, 2020, 11:34:33 AM
With four months of work in Portland finally ending last Friday, I detoured through Eastern Washington, Eastern Oregon, and North-South through Nevada, before spending a few days in the Phoenix area.

Portland has been under off-and-on shutdowns for months - no bars, salons, breweries, day cares, gyms. And the shutdown continued through Washington State and Nevada, save for the gaming floors in Vegas where I spent a night at the Flamingo. Everything else about Vegas - the pools, nightclubs (DJing, bottle service), shows, buffets - is shutdown.

Then into Arizona, Phoenix, Scottsdale, and Tempe couldn't've been more opposite in terms of business. Everything was open, mostly with no seating capacity limits. The open-air brunch spots lining Scottsdale BLVD were packed. College bars and taco shops in Tempe packed. Malls open across Phoenix. Everybody was wearing their masks, but in general bartenders and waitresses weren't militant about enforcing masks like what I ran into in Portland if I took one step away from the table, if things were even open in Portland. Lots of Texas and California license plates in Scottsdale, likely people enjoying what life was like before the pandemic shut down the economy last April.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on December 11, 2020, 11:41:38 AM
I have known at least 20 people that have had COVID and there has been no deaths. Two of them have previous conditions that were known co-morbidities. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 11, 2020, 12:35:37 PM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on December 11, 2020, 11:34:33 AM
With four months of work in Portland finally ending last Friday, I detoured through Eastern Washington, Eastern Oregon, and North-South through Nevada, before spending a few days in the Phoenix area.

Portland has been under off-and-on shutdowns for months - no bars, salons, breweries, day cares, gyms. And the shutdown continued through Washington State and Nevada, save for the gaming floors in Vegas where I spent a night at the Flamingo. Everything else about Vegas - the pools, nightclubs (DJing, bottle service), shows, buffets - is shutdown.

Then into Arizona, Phoenix, Scottsdale, and Tempe couldn't've been more opposite in terms of business. Everything was open, mostly with no seating capacity limits. The open-air brunch spots lining Scottsdale BLVD were packed. College bars and taco shops in Tempe packed. Malls open across Phoenix. Everybody was wearing their masks, but in general bartenders and waitresses weren't militant about enforcing masks like what I ran into in Portland if I took one step away from the table, if things were even open in Portland. Lots of Texas and California license plates in Scottsdale, likely people enjoying what life was like before the pandemic shut down the economy last April.
Oregon has 21,300 cases/1M population and 266 deaths/1M population. 

Arizona has 54,201 cases/1M population and 995 deaths/1M population. 

So Arizona has about a 2.5x per capita higher case rate and 3.75x per capita higher death rate. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 11, 2020, 12:39:40 PM
Demographics play a part too, particularly on the death numbers. Florida is also high there, at 912/Million.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 11, 2020, 01:03:48 PM
Arizona has bad numbers because of the governor.  I'll leave it at that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 11, 2020, 02:20:26 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/kq84vZm.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 11, 2020, 02:21:31 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/eVmwP8N.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 11, 2020, 02:25:02 PM
In defense of Belgium, I read on back they had a different way of accounting for deaths that for whatever reasons made the figure a lot higher.

North Korea also appears to have a different way of accounting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 11, 2020, 02:36:37 PM
Belgium makes the best beer in the world.  They can't be expected to pay too much attention to the Rona.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 11, 2020, 02:37:03 PM
Georgia is exploding, again, and worse.  The previous peak in new cases is exceeded now handily.  This was of course feared several weeks back.

Europe is happening here, and Thanksgiving didn't help.  I'd like to know with some reasonable certainty why things died back and then exploded again.

Is whatever that was that tempered the peak in June going to temper this one?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 11, 2020, 02:38:41 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 11, 2020, 02:20:26 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/kq84vZm.png)
8 of the 10 of those are above the Mason - Dixon,but both Dakota's are in there so it's just not about population :017:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 11, 2020, 02:43:10 PM
Quote from: utee94 on December 11, 2020, 02:36:37 PM
Belgium makes some of the best beer in the world.  
FIFY but ya that's why they don't make Corona - pun intended.I've always hated - HATED that swill.They try passing panther piss off as high society suds.When infact they cram limes in there because it's water from a wagon rut
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 11, 2020, 02:58:05 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 11, 2020, 02:37:03 PM
Georgia is exploding, again, and worse.  The previous peak in new cases is exceeded now handily.  This was of course feared several weeks back.

Europe is happening here, and Thanksgiving didn't help.  I'd like to know with some reasonable certainty why things died back and then exploded again.

Is whatever that was that tempered the peak in June going to temper this one?
IMHO, no.

Perhaps this is just anecdotal, but I saw people changing their behavior when the second wave really hit and they started taking it seriously. I.e. after they relaxed in the first round of reopening, they tightened back up.

This time, I'm not seeing any intent by anyone to tighten up, no matter the numbers. Here in CA where we've got a lockdown, several county sheriffs are basically saying "Mr Newsom has made his decision, now let him enforce it." Anecdotally, seeing friends and others as we're getting into holidays, and they're just sick and tired of being apart so they don't seem to care.

So I don't see much changing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 11, 2020, 03:05:26 PM
Wisconsin:

(https://i.imgur.com/1xvmzq4.png)

It's now been two weeks since Thanksgiving. Not seeing a spike here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 11, 2020, 03:35:06 PM
I'm thinking more about this one...

I would think that after Christmas, there's a good chance we'll start to see people rein in their behavior. 

I think a lot of people are giving in to social pressure to do the holiday thing despite the risk. I can see a lot of people that right now are just hoping they make it through the holidays unscathed and might shut things down once they pass...

I could see numbers start to drop as we get past December. On top of that, we'll at least be seeing a start to vaccination, so although the numbers of vaccinated individuals won't be enormous, every one of them is one potential reduction of a host for R0. 

So the peak might get tempered... I just don't think it'll be in the next 4 weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 11, 2020, 03:49:54 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 11, 2020, 03:05:26 PM
Wisconsin:

(https://i.imgur.com/1xvmzq4.png)

It's now been two weeks since Thanksgiving. Not seeing a spike here.

Here in Austin we have a slow upward trend that started back in October, not necessarily a Tday spike, but it's definitely headed the wrong way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 11, 2020, 03:50:01 PM
I decided to look at Arizona's website and I found this page. Man, July was a rough month there. Looks like things on the death front are settling down a bit now, which is good. My FIL has not left the house since March, and my MIL only goes out to get food. They are 87 and 85. He has other issues but she is very healthy.

(https://i.imgur.com/iKLFqCU.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 11, 2020, 04:20:18 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 11, 2020, 03:05:26 PM
Wisconsin:

(https://i.imgur.com/1xvmzq4.png)

It's now been two weeks since Thanksgiving. Not seeing a spike here.
Someday, people will stop posting things like this.  But not yet, I guess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 11, 2020, 04:21:18 PM
Why? You don't appreciate relevant data?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 11, 2020, 04:22:15 PM
two weeks is not a magical time scale
six feet is not a magical distance

Yet time after time, they're cited, and thus become hard-and-fast rules.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 11, 2020, 04:35:23 PM
According to the CDC, those are the numbers.

Average incubation is a little more than 5 days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 11, 2020, 04:52:43 PM
What in hell is OAM gonna do when the vaccine starts to make a difference

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 11, 2020, 05:06:26 PM
Gaussian distributions, HOW DO THEY WORK?????

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 11, 2020, 05:16:20 PM
Quote from: utee94 on December 11, 2020, 05:06:26 PM
Gaussian distributions, HOW DO THEY WORK?????


just ask OAM
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 11, 2020, 05:16:39 PM
People outside of scientific disciplines expect that science is going to give them an answer. And when anything comes out that is not 100% certain, they blame science. Or if it's a rule of thumb (like the 6 feet thing) that isn't 100% certain, they then blame it for being overly certain.

People within scientific disciplines understand that everything comes with uncertainty, and that the best you can do in any endeavor is to try to give a good answer within the bounds of uncertainty. 

As the old one goes...

A mathematician, physicist, and engineer are all brought into a room. At the opposite end of the room is a gorgeous naked lady. They're told that every 30 seconds, they can cross half the distance to the woman and if they ever reach her, they can have sex with her. 
The mathematician immediately gives up, claiming that he knows theoretically he'll never reach the lady. 
The physicist, after two minutes and copious measurements, does the same, knowing that based on empirical data he will never reach the lady. 
The engineer, every 30 seconds, keeps moving forward. Keeps moving forward. Keeps moving forward.
The mathematician and the physicist are incredulous, they ask him "don't you realize that you'll never reach her???"
The engineer replies, "Oh, I know that, but I realize that in about 5 minutes I'll be close enough for all practical purposes."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 11, 2020, 05:20:39 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 11, 2020, 04:52:43 PM
What in hell is OAM gonna do when the vaccine starts to make a difference
You're just jealous because the voices talk to her
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 11, 2020, 05:47:52 PM
Quote from: utee94 on December 11, 2020, 05:06:26 PM
Gaussian distributions, HOW DO THEY WORK?????
Normally.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 11, 2020, 05:51:16 PM
With COVID, if we see a behavior and expect a response, it's reasonable to expect said response in ABOUT 14 days.  If we don't, it could occur after 20 days for some reason, and the response COULD be due to something other than the behavior.

France shut down, and within 14 days, quicker actually, they saw a very clear cut response.  They left schools open, which leads one to speculate that schools are probably not major issues with this.  Now France is creeping back up a bit.

The six feet thing is obviously rule of thumb based on what can be expected from a normal sneeze or cough of yell.  Seven feet is better, but we're more familiar with six.  Ten feet is better yet but still not perfect of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on December 11, 2020, 06:13:15 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_ewUvSNT3w&feature=emb_logo&ab_channel=PaulJosephWatson
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 11, 2020, 06:36:07 PM
Leading Causes Of Global Deaths: Big Changes Since 2000

This analysis is through the end of 2019 and doesn’t include COVID-19. But with a projected 1.9 million deaths in 2020, the pandemic would rank as the sixth-highest cause of death globally.

Coronary heart disease 110Stroke 89Neonatal/birth conditions 52.1Lower respiratory infections 49.7Inflammatory lung disease 48.6Diarrhea 43.1Tuberculosis 28.3HIV/AIDS 22.5Lung cancers 19.6Road injuries 19Diabetes 14.3Kidney diseases 13.2Dementias 9.5(110 deaths per 100,000)2000115.3 Coronary heart disease80.4 Stroke41.9 Inflammatory lung disease33.6 Lower respiratory infections26.4 Neonatal/birth conditions23.1 Lung cancers21.3 Dementias19.7 Diarrhea19.4 Diabetes17.3 Kidney diseases16.6 Road injuries15.7 Tuberculosis8.8 HIV/AIDS2019


Leading Causes Of Global Deaths: Big Changes Since 2000
This analysis is through the end of 2019 and doesn’t include COVID-19. But with a projected 1.9 million deaths in 2020, the pandemic would rank as the sixth-highest cause of death globally.
Coronary heart disease 110Stroke 89Neonatal/birth conditions 52.1Lower respiratory infections 49.7Inflammatory lung disease 48.6Diarrhea 43.1Tuberculosis 28.3HIV/AIDS 22.5Lung cancers 19.6Road injuries 19Diabetes 14.3Kidney diseases 13.2Dementias 9.5(110 deaths per 100,000)2000115.3 Coronary heart disease80.4 Stroke41.9 Inflammatory lung disease33.6 Lower respiratory infections26.4 Neonatal/birth conditions23.1 Lung cancers21.3 Dementias19.7 Diarrhea19.4 Diabetes17.3 Kidney diseases16.6 Road injuries15.7 Tuberculosis8.8 HIV/AIDS2019
[th]CAUSE OF DEATH[/th]
[th]RANK[/th]
[th]CHANGE IN RANK[/th]
[th]2000 RANKING[/th]
[th]2000 RATE[/th]
[th]2019 RATE[/th]
Coronary heart disease1-1110115.3
Stroke2-28980.4
Inflammatory lung disease3+2 548.641.9
Lower respiratory infections4-449.733.6
Neonatal/birth conditions5-2 352.126.4
Lung cancers6+3 919.623.1
Dementias7+13 209.521.3
Diarrhea8-2 643.119.7
Diabetes9+3 1214.319.4
Kidney diseases10+3 1313.217.3
Road injuries12-2 101916.6
Tuberculosis13-6 728.315.7
HIV/AIDS19-11 822.58.8

Notes
Rates are in deaths per 100,000 people. Only causes that were in the Top 10 for either 2019 or 2000 are shown.
Source: WHO (https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates/ghe-leading-causes-of-death)
Credit: Thomas Wilburn / NPR

(https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates/ghe-leading-causes-of-death)
Credit: Thomas Wilburn / NPR



Top Causes Of Global Deaths — And How COVID-19 Would Rank : Goats and Soda : NPR (https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/12/11/945171603/global-causes-of-death-significant-shifts-from-2000-to-2019)





Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 11, 2020, 07:29:01 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on December 11, 2020, 02:38:41 PM
8 of the 10 of those are above the Mason - Dixon,but both Dakota's are in there so it's just not about population :017:
first, good that Iowa didn't make the top ten

second, no new cases in some of those states????
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 11, 2020, 07:35:26 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 11, 2020, 04:22:15 PM
two weeks is not a magical time scale
six feet is not a magical distance

Yet time after time, they're cited, and thus become hard-and-fast rules.
this is a large part of the problem

"wear a mask and everyone is safe" = bullshit message
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 12, 2020, 08:38:20 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 11, 2020, 07:29:01 PM
first, good that Iowa didn't make the top ten

second, no new cases in some of those states????
It's about when they report. So, if a state has not reported that day, it's remains blank until they do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 12, 2020, 09:09:46 AM
ok
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 12, 2020, 09:18:56 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 11, 2020, 07:35:26 PM
this is a large part of the problem

"wear a mask and everyone is safe" = bullshit message
The real message of course is more like:

Maintain distance
Wear a mask when you can't
Wash your hands when you return home.

If everyone does these things, we may be able to limit the spread, not eliminate, but limit the spread, so as to keep hospitals functional.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 12, 2020, 09:21:16 AM
Take some group of 1,000 folks in which 10 are contagious, but don't know it, so they are out and about, and interact with others.  Each may infect two others in normal behaviors, and they then infect two others, so so on.  Exponents.

But if everyone distances, washes, and masks up, they only infect one other person.  Major major difference in outcomes over time.  Area under the curve could be the same over time, but the peak would be much lower.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 12, 2020, 09:27:19 AM
be much better to tell folks to stay home.  DO NOT go out in public.

unless it's essential

like back in March/April

because, if you go out, there's always a chance you can't distance, your mask could fail you, or your hands could transfer the virus

but, I understand folks don't "want" to do this and it's impossible to enforce this

so, we wear masks, try to distance and spread the virus
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 12, 2020, 09:29:52 AM
J&J cuts size of Covid-19 vaccine study due to prevalence of disease (statnews.com) (https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/09/johnson-johnson-cuts-size-of-covid-19-vaccine-study-due-to-prevalence-of-disease-in-u-s/?fbclid=IwAR2I8w5YVFmZ1rmzC-b0Hui4fAt_GixkDszbN1R7QUhkcbhymP-g_JlmOKY)

Johnson & Johnson is cutting the size of its pivotal U.S. Covid-19 vaccine trial — the only major study testing a single dose of a Covid vaccine — from 60,000 volunteers to 40,000 volunteers.
The change is being made possible by the fact that Covid-19 is so pervasive across the country, according to a person familiar with the matter. The more virus there is in the U.S., the more likely it is that participants will be exposed to it, meaning researchers will be able to reach conclusions based on a smaller trial.
Changing the size of the study does not indicate that results will come on a different timetable, or anything about whether they will be positive or negative.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 12, 2020, 09:49:07 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 12, 2020, 09:27:19 AM
be much better to tell folks to stay home.  DO NOT go out in public.

unless it's essential

like back in March/April

because, if you go out, there's always a chance you can't distance, your mask could fail you, or your hands could transfer the virus

but, I understand folks don't "want" to do this and it's impossible to enforce this

so, we wear masks, try to distance and spread the virus
We're beating a dead horse.It gets down to what will be left to live for if we were to hole up completely for months on end.No jobs/interactions/activities and no guarantee this stops.Might as well be the days of yore and we're stuck in the Tower of London with William Wallace and the rest of the ne'er do wells.Will it be worth throwing it all away?For the pittance of safety we've got in exchange?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 12, 2020, 09:50:37 AM
Changing the size of the study does not indicate that results will come on a different timetable, or anything about whether they will be positive or negative.

so, why change the size?

can't find an additional 20K?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 12, 2020, 09:53:03 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on December 12, 2020, 09:49:07 AM
We're beating a dead horse.It gets down to what will be left to live for if we were to hole up completely for months on end.No jobs/interactions/activities and no guarantee this stops.Might as well be the days of yore and we're stuck in the Tower of London with William Wallace and the rest of the ne'er do wells.Will it be worth throwing away?For the pittance of safety we've got in exchange?
I understand this, but
for the elderly and those at risk of a rough go in the hospital, THOSE folks would be better off holed up for a month or two or three while this thing runs it's course
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 12, 2020, 10:02:23 AM
Hyperbole aside, I don't expect folks to "hole up for months".  I think it prudent to make the standard precautions, not hole up for months, so we can get through this until the vaccine is widely available.

Washing your hands more often seems not to be onerous to me.  I'm OK with wearing a mask and trying to distance from strangers.  That's it.  I'm not holed up for months.

If you find those three things just too onerous to practice, well, OK with me.  I don't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 12, 2020, 10:03:21 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 12, 2020, 09:50:37 AM
Changing the size of the study does not indicate that results will come on a different timetable, or anything about whether they will be positive or negative.

so, why change the size?

can't find an additional 20K?
A smaller study would happen faster and be cheaper, and provide the same statistically valid results.  If you don't need a larger study, why do it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 12, 2020, 10:05:49 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/diHqCOY.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 12, 2020, 10:07:27 AM
My bubble:

(https://i.imgur.com/sVOvgzh.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 12, 2020, 10:07:36 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 12, 2020, 09:53:03 AM
I understand this, but
for the elderly and those at risk of a rough go in the hospital, THOSE folks would be better off holed up for a month or two or three while this thing runs it's course
Keep protocol/precautions in place and enforced then keep on keeping on
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on December 12, 2020, 11:43:08 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 11, 2020, 03:35:06 PM
I'm thinking more about this one...

I would think that after Christmas, there's a good chance we'll start to see people rein in their behavior.

I think a lot of people are giving in to social pressure to do the holiday thing despite the risk. I can see a lot of people that right now are just hoping they make it through the holidays unscathed and might shut things down once they pass...

I could see numbers start to drop as we get past December. On top of that, we'll at least be seeing a start to vaccination, so although the numbers of vaccinated individuals won't be enormous, every one of them is one potential reduction of a host for R0.

So the peak might get tempered... I just don't think it'll be in the next 4 weeks.

I also think people can be broadly divided into two reactionary types: those who choose to learn the Easy Way and those who choose the Hard Way. There was always going to be a large part of the population that doesn't change their behavior until it harmfully impacts them.

As for the Holiday Season, I agree with you. If everybody is broke as usual going into the New Year, won't that reinforce keeping the lid on things that probably should've been kept on from Halloween through Christmas?

And as for the much hyped "Thanksgiving Wave," was there ever really a Halloween Wave? It's worth asking about the Thanksgiving angle because Europe is amidst high daily death counts despite not celebrating Thanksgiving. Italy with over 600 deaths/day, UK over 400, France over 400, and Spain over 200.

Meanwhile, Iran is finally coming down from their third wave - over 400 deaths/day for most of November now down to 200/day so far in December.

Edit: Globally reported COVID deaths crept above 1.6 million yesterday; likewise USA's total topped 300K.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 12, 2020, 02:22:38 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 12, 2020, 10:02:23 AM
Hyperbole aside, I don't expect folks to "hole up for months".  I think it prudent to make the standard precautions, not hole up for months, so we can get through this until the vaccine is widely available.

Washing your hands more often seems not to be onerous to me.  I'm OK with wearing a mask and trying to distance from strangers.  That's it.  I'm not holed up for months.

If you find those three things just too onerous to practice, well, OK with me.  I don't.
that's fine, but I think that's what is happening and it doesn't seem to be enough to curtail deaths
so, if we as a nation or a state or a local community are fine with this, great
if we are not or if hospitals are going to be over run, then something else is needed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 12, 2020, 02:26:22 PM
Cities should have left their temporary hospitals in place. Dismantling those was a big mistake.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 12, 2020, 02:28:30 PM
better to dismantle them and not need them

they are temporary, they can be put up again

tell folks to stay the fuck home

especially old folks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 12, 2020, 02:31:25 PM
They were built inside convention centers. No reason to remove them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on December 12, 2020, 03:20:46 PM
The choke point on those were not storage, it's staff. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 12, 2020, 03:31:55 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 12, 2020, 02:26:22 PM
Cities should have left their temporary hospitals in place. Dismantling those was a big mistake.
They did here, 200 beds, for noncritical patients.  Being dusted off apparently.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 12, 2020, 05:44:40 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 12, 2020, 02:26:22 PM
Cities should have left their temporary hospitals in place. Dismantling those was a big mistake.
But certainly no one could have predicted such severe mismanagement, right?  :57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 13, 2020, 07:54:30 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/3Z5tWXF.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 13, 2020, 08:15:19 AM
Clean that up you could put a rustic Pub down there with it's own beer menu
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 13, 2020, 08:19:15 AM
Only one person allowed at a time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 13, 2020, 08:19:50 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on December 12, 2020, 03:20:46 PM
The choke point on those were not storage, it's staff.
In some places, yes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 13, 2020, 08:21:30 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/3FtcpIh.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 13, 2020, 08:22:27 AM
WI:

(https://i.imgur.com/mS6lu0M.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on December 13, 2020, 10:37:36 AM
Wife's first shot (dose) is on Wednesday.     I told her, she can now do all of the errands which require going places.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 13, 2020, 11:32:26 AM
Quote from: MarqHusker on December 13, 2020, 10:37:36 AM
Wife's first shot (dose) is on Wednesday.    I told her, she can now do all of the errands which require going places.
thats pretty exciting 

we want updates
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 13, 2020, 12:13:39 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/4OtkiQd.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/e4P0dSo.png)

I created these charts to reflect the 7 day moving average of positives and deaths

Just thought some might find it interesting
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on December 13, 2020, 12:16:26 PM
Anyone looked at how hard Illinois is getting hit lately? After spending their post-1st Wave at under 20 deaths/day, their November/December wave is averaging 175 deaths/day. Illinois has risen to 6th in terms of total deaths (over 15K so far) and 10th in terms of deaths/million (over 1200/million).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/illinois/

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 13, 2020, 12:24:25 PM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on December 13, 2020, 12:16:26 PM
Anyone looked at how hard Illinois is getting hit lately? After spending their post-1st Wave at under 20 deaths/day, their November/December wave is averaging 175 deaths/day. Illinois has risen to 6th in terms of total deaths (over 15K so far) and 10th in terms of deaths/million (over 1200/million).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/illinois/


Largely the Chicago area

this is true for most major cities in northern states

population density 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 13, 2020, 02:15:33 PM
In Georgia, Atlanta has been hit less hard than several rural counties.  Some of that was the meat processing stuff.

(https://i.imgur.com/vsIcojv.jpg)

We don't live in this complex, but a block away.  I wonder how they manage their elevators.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 13, 2020, 04:31:44 PM
no population density in North/South Dakota or Iowa

hit hard
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 13, 2020, 04:47:07 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 13, 2020, 04:31:44 PM
no population density in North/South Dakota or Iowa

hit hard
sure there is in Iowa

Des Moines is the leading location
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 13, 2020, 04:51:56 PM
not many dense neighborhoods in Des Moines
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 13, 2020, 05:00:26 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 13, 2020, 04:51:56 PM
not many dense neighborhoods in Des Moines
not sure but there must be some


https://www.gettyimages.com/photos/des-moines-iowa?phrase=des%20moines%20iowa&sort=mostpopular
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 13, 2020, 05:06:56 PM
well it's the most densely populated place in the state, but nothing like Omaha, Minneapolis, Kansas City, St. Louis, Chicago, Denver
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 13, 2020, 05:27:12 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/jrZOUUe.png)

Des Moines is Polk County - they are at 7,705 cases per 100,000

Sioux City is Woodbury County, where I live.  Been hot since the start.  Meat packing

Buena Vista county - Tyson Fresh Meats - pork plant

Plymouth County - Wells is the second largest ice cream maker in the United States behind Unilever

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 13, 2020, 05:36:02 PM
Its the meat packing plants

the virus hates the meat packing plants
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 13, 2020, 05:39:24 PM
and the ice cream plants

and the bars and restaurants

and unfortunately, it really hates assisted living, long term care and nursing homes 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 13, 2020, 05:51:16 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 13, 2020, 05:36:02 PM
Its the meat packing plants

the virus hates the meat packing plants
The virus is a vegetarian? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 13, 2020, 05:53:43 PM
vaccine on the way

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zye9cIDmwlk

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 13, 2020, 05:56:53 PM
total deaths in Iowa = 3213

deaths long term care = 1132

total tests = 2,728,423

positive tests = 277,126

total individuals tested = 1,282,932

individuals positive - 256,368

_______________________


so, 20,758 individuals tested positive twice?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 13, 2020, 06:13:42 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 13, 2020, 05:56:53 PM
total deaths in Iowa = 3213

deaths long term care = 1132

total tests = 2,728,423

positive tests = 277,126

total individuals tested = 1,282,932

individuals positive - 256,368

_______________________


so, 20,758 individuals tested positive twice?

or were not included in the 1,282,932 number

or were false positives
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 14, 2020, 10:24:36 AM
Some updates from yesterday:

(https://i.imgur.com/9BE94UQ.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/Lvmaui6.png)

Wisconsin:

(https://i.imgur.com/5lmh2KZ.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/uYpOiP8.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 14, 2020, 02:52:23 PM
German lockdown: Merkel announces tough new COVID curbs | News | DW | 13.12.2020 (https://www.dw.com/en/german-lockdown-merkel-announces-tough-new-covid-curbs/a-55921912)


The chancellor also recommended that families who are planning to meet up should isolate for a week beforehand to be safe.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 14, 2020, 02:57:47 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 13, 2020, 06:13:42 PM
or were not included in the 1,282,932 number - wondering why they wouldn't be included?

or were false positives - should also be some false positives in the other number???  or false negatives?
I'm sure there is a good reason, I just haven't been educated
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 14, 2020, 03:05:43 PM
Today's Wisconsin update:

(https://i.imgur.com/6UcERiL.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/VA1k74Y.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 14, 2020, 03:07:11 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/eTq0bB2.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 14, 2020, 04:00:02 PM
There are lockdowns and there are "lockdowns"... Orange County is the latter.

When my wife went to the grocery store on Saturday, she saw nail salons open for business. She saw restaurants open for both indoor and outdoor dining. Otherwise restaurants are still operating. Our local wine bar is proudly proclaiming on Instagram that they're open. I'm guessing if I need a haircut next week before the holiday, my barber will be open. 

I'll bet in France and Germany, a "stay at home order" actually results in businesses closing, people staying at home, and it actually slows the spread. 

Whereas yesterday Orange County posted it's highest single-day case rate since this thing started... On a Sunday. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 14, 2020, 04:03:43 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 14, 2020, 04:00:02 PM
There are lockdowns and there are "lockdowns"... Orange County is the latter.

When my wife went to the grocery store on Saturday, she saw nail salons open for business. She saw restaurants open for both indoor and outdoor dining. Otherwise restaurants are still operating. Our local wine bar is proudly proclaiming on Instagram that they're open. I'm guessing if I need a haircut next week before the holiday, my barber will be open.

I'll bet in France and Germany, a "stay at home order" actually results in businesses closing, people staying at home, and it actually slows the spread.

Whereas yesterday Orange County posted it's highest single-day case rate since this thing started... On a Sunday.
You guys need to stop having wild orgies and such I keep reading about that goes on in California
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 14, 2020, 04:20:47 PM
Sounds like California is behaving much worse than what I see around here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 14, 2020, 04:30:08 PM
you are surrounded by old folks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 14, 2020, 04:34:38 PM
Stereotyper..
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 14, 2020, 04:36:59 PM
My son is here from SF.  He says SF is shut down, but just south in San Mateo is it close to business as usual, so all the city folks drive to SM to visit bars.

Atlanta is still "open", no large gatherings of course.  Conventions are shut down, downtown must be suffering.  I picked him up at ATL around 6:30 AM and traffic was pretty bad, but it was raining and lots of accidents.  Traffic seems close to normal usually.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 14, 2020, 04:39:04 PM
traffic is nothing like early April

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 14, 2020, 04:47:51 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 14, 2020, 04:20:47 PM
Sounds like California is behaving much worse than what I see around here.
Bear in mind that Orange County is not quite like some of the rest of California... It's one of the conservative areas of the state.

Also bear in mind that especially in Southern California, even for the liberals, they have to balance their liberal ideals with their extreme selfishness. Guess which one wins?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 14, 2020, 04:54:26 PM
Ideals?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 14, 2020, 04:56:58 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 14, 2020, 04:47:51 PM
Bear in mind that Orange County is not quite like some of the rest of California... It's one of the conservative areas of the state.

Also bear in mind that especially in Southern California, even for the liberals, they have to balance their liberal ideals with their extreme selfishness. Guess which one wins?
Well, this whole state is mostly conservative, except Miami, where cases and deaths are the worst.

And this state is fully open, save for a few local/county requirements. I still don't like the positives being over 5 percent though. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 14, 2020, 04:57:46 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 14, 2020, 04:54:26 PM
Ideals?
These are some ideals...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 14, 2020, 04:59:50 PM
My basic premise is we're all pretty much the same, and the more I travel, the more I think that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 14, 2020, 05:14:33 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 14, 2020, 04:56:58 PM
Well, this whole state is mostly conservative, except Miami, where cases and deaths are the worst.

And this state is fully open, save for a few local/county requirements. I still don't like the positives being over 5 percent though.
past 14 day positive average in Iowa 15.2%

in my county 18%
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 14, 2020, 11:42:52 PM
One interesting thing happened to me today.  I received a call from the local hospital I go to when necessary although I have not been there for over a year. 

The person calling told me that they were expecting a shipment of vaccine shortly but no need for me to call my doctor as its way too early yet to schedule anything but that they would be in touch when that time came so not to worry.

I was amazed they even called me.  From this I estimate the distribution of the vaccine is much more organized then I imagined.

Im feeling much more optimistic.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 14, 2020, 11:51:18 PM
it wasn't a scam, just asking for personal information???
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 15, 2020, 12:28:59 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 14, 2020, 11:51:18 PM
it wasn't a scam, just asking for personal information???
If it was it wasnt a very good one

cause there was no request for money or personal info
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on December 15, 2020, 01:14:03 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 14, 2020, 05:14:33 PM
past 14 day positive average in Iowa 15.2%

in my county 18%
I was mostly buoyed during my weekly junk food trip to Fareway Stores today. It was not until I got to the check stand that I saw someone (2 people) who were unmasked. Mask compliance appears to be getting much greater in Delaware County where it used to be awful.
Problem is most of us here now know people who died from COVID-19 over the past 60-days. I expected things to continue to be bad or worse, but since T-Giving, it's getting better. Back when I contracted it and tested + Oct. 25, the Telegraph Herald was reporting our county two-week positivity rate > 50%. The TH was calculating positivity rates in their subscription area counties using their own calculations because the state's calculations did not consider people who had confirmed + tests to be positive if there was not a date of birth associated with the + test. The TH considered the state's calculations to be erroneous, and the data with no DOB associated with the + test was available by which the TH calculated the actual positivity rate in real time. My Gosh, what good does it do the state, or its politicians, to calculate an accurate positivity test rate two weeks later when the DOBs come in?
Anyway, I represent two COVID-19 widows. I was acquainted with two others who died from it, one of whom is my great aunt. It is very sad.
It was so uplifting to see the UPS and FedEx trucks on the news Sunday a.m. hauling the first vaccines out of the Grand Rapids, Michigan Pfizer plant. Thank you Pfizer, and Michigan! The beginning of the end, is upon us. Unfortunately the end will be long.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 15, 2020, 08:46:46 AM
Impressive vaccine results.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 15, 2020, 10:45:04 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on December 15, 2020, 01:14:03 AM
I was mostly buoyed during my weekly junk food trip to Fareway Stores today. It was not until I got to the check stand that I saw someone (2 people) who were unmasked. Mask compliance appears to be getting much greater in Delaware County where it used to be awful.

could be much worse in Delaware County if IBP/Tyson would have built the huge pork plant there instead of in Waterloo.

I actually was part of a team from IBP that made a trip to the site of the planned pork plant there back in the late 90's.

As you probably remember, a group in Delaware County formed a movement of strong resistance to the plant being built there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 15, 2020, 10:49:16 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 14, 2020, 04:59:50 PM
My basic premise is we're all pretty much the same, and the more I travel, the more I think that.
Right. 
But when I word it as 'the masses are idiots', I get pushback.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 15, 2020, 10:50:19 AM
maybe you could use different words?

just a thought
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 15, 2020, 10:51:58 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 15, 2020, 10:50:19 AM
maybe you could use different words?

just a thought
Or travel some more. The masses are not idiots. That's a select club, which is easily avoided.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 15, 2020, 10:52:24 AM
Right.
Because the masses doing different actions would be a terrible idea.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 15, 2020, 10:53:57 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 15, 2020, 10:51:58 AM
Or travel some more. The masses are not idiots. That's a select club, which is easily avoided.
I've traveled plenty.  Talk to the millions who've never left their small town, except to pick up Jethro from the airport.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 15, 2020, 11:04:47 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 15, 2020, 10:53:57 AM
I've traveled plenty.  Talk to the millions who've never left their small town, except to pick up Jethro from the airport.
What business does NCIS have in that small town?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 15, 2020, 11:11:55 AM
I think the Jethro in question is none other than Jethro Bodine

(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRry4Hj4MohAzwZP_uvn4jib-Fqu4kdhMF-4w&usqp=CAU)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 15, 2020, 11:15:32 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 15, 2020, 10:53:57 AM
I've traveled plenty.  Talk to the millions who've never left their small town, except to pick up Jethro from the airport.
Just because they are from a towns doesn't mean they are idiots. There are a lot of people on this very board that are from small towns.

Travel to the small towns. Travel to other countries' small towns. Let us know what you see.

(Hint - it's going to be very similar.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 15, 2020, 11:26:45 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 15, 2020, 11:15:32 AM
Just because they are from a towns doesn't mean they are idiots. There are a lot of people on this very board that are from small towns.

Travel to the small towns. Travel to other countries' small towns. Let us know what you see.

(Hint - it's going to be very similar.)
nope it was the former Cowboy great may he rest in peace


https://www.ebay.com/i/183823293070?chn=ps&norover=1&mkevt=1&mkrid=711-117182-37290-0&mkcid=2&itemid=183823293070&targetid=941893660922&device=c&mktype=pla&googleloc=9027639&poi=&campaignid=11615401601&mkgroupid=116126555511&rlsatarget=pla-941893660922&abcId=9300455&merchantid=111826650&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3lzPcCEbJCX-7If4MhOMBv6mofebWed9gx_qygrO3kehkJelt4XB7YaAruhEALw_wcB
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 15, 2020, 11:40:11 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 15, 2020, 10:50:19 AM
maybe you could use different words?

just a thought
This. 

I personally think "the masses" are, if not idiots, people who don't have a lot of depth of knowledge, intellect, or interest in developing such. 

They're easily led, because they choose not to look beneath the surface of nearly every issue and understand that there are no easy pat answers in the world. And frankly, most of them wouldn't be able to comprehend that nuance if they got there. 

They'd rather watch the news and be told what to think, if they care to be "informed". They argue with each other on facebook with a meme-level of understanding of issues, and their arguments are more a vision into their own identity of who they are rather than an actual analysis of the world. They think they're informed, but they're not.

And many don't even do that--they're completely uninformed, only caring about what the Kardashians are up to, or reading People magazine, or what's going on with their favorite sports teams, or just playing video games. 

My view of the common man is not particularly flattering.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 15, 2020, 11:45:23 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 15, 2020, 11:15:32 AM
Just because they are from a towns doesn't mean they are idiots. There are a lot of people on this very board that are from small towns.

Travel to the small towns. Travel to other countries' small towns. Let us know what you see.

(Hint - it's going to be very similar.)
hah, I'm from a small town and live in a smaller town.  The folks from small towns aren't the masses.

the folks crammed together in the big cities are the masses.  We haven't had any riots in small towns.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 15, 2020, 11:52:24 AM
Actual video footage of Fearless:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CVLVaBECuc


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 15, 2020, 11:57:39 AM
shoot, Seymour, Indiana is over 15,000 people

that ain't no small town

500 people, that's a small town

graduating high school class of 53
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 15, 2020, 12:02:55 PM
Plenty of people from big cities who feel like they're "worldly" and superior to those from small towns, but their "worldliness" doesn't extend beyond the Kardashians and People magazine, as previously stated. 

Many of them feel well-traveled because they've been to a resort in Hawaii, a resort in Cancun, and to the Vegas Strip. They'd never leave their resorts and actually interact with the locals though. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 15, 2020, 12:17:17 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 15, 2020, 12:02:55 PM
Many of them feel well-traveled because they've been to a resort in Hawaii, a resort in Cancun, and to the Vegas Strip. They'd never leave their resorts and actually interact with the locals though.
hey, us small town folks like resorts in warm places this time of year
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 15, 2020, 12:24:59 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 15, 2020, 12:17:17 PM
hey, us small town folks like resorts in warm places this time of year
No argument there. But if you fly to the Cancun airport, take the resort shuttle to spend a week within the confines of the resort, then take the resort shuttle back to the Cancun airport before flying back to the US, I don't consider that having become worldly or having experienced Mexican culture. 

Those sorts of people say "oh, I *love* Mexico!" When in reality, they wouldn't dare spend a moment outside of the carefully curated resort experience.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on December 15, 2020, 12:36:38 PM
I also think the key turn of your earlier post is "or interest in developing such. " 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 15, 2020, 12:37:16 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 15, 2020, 12:02:55 PM
Plenty of people from big cities who feel like they're "worldly" and superior to those from small towns, but their "worldliness" doesn't extend beyond the Kardashians and People magazine, as previously stated.

Many of them feel well-traveled because they've been to a resort in Hawaii, a resort in Cancun, and to the Vegas Strip. They'd never leave their resorts and actually interact with the locals though.
Well, they shouldn't. You gotta get out and meet the people. Find the local hangouts, and have a blast. I find big city folk to be misguided, generally.

Reminds me of our last Hawaii trip. My BIL used to live there, so we spent some time with him since we stayed there, and we hung out at his haunts. It was great, even for Oahu. Then, we went to Kauai and stayed at the Hanalei Inn. It's a 5 unit efficiency place. We met a lot of locals out of that base. Good times. Walk down to the beach, buy fresh Ahi from the fishermen, and just live the life. It was fantastic.


(https://i.imgur.com/2YMJfxS.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 15, 2020, 01:05:18 PM
probably a better topic for another thread, but I've found that when in Mexico, it's sometimes better to stay near the resort area

I haven't and wouldn't do an all inclusive resort, cause I like to go out and hang at the local places for food and drink.  But, those places are usually in or near the resort areas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 15, 2020, 01:24:21 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 15, 2020, 01:05:18 PM
probably a better topic for another thread, but I've found that when in Mexico, it's sometimes better to stay near the resort area

I haven't and wouldn't do an all inclusive resort, cause I like to go out and hang at the local places for food and drink.  But, those places are usually in or near the resort areas.
Agreed. If it's someplace that I'm not sure is a safe place to actually go and walk around, then I'm just not going to go, rather than go to some sanitized version of it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 15, 2020, 01:25:31 PM
Good news. My ex and her family wised up and so they canceled their large Christmas party this weekend. So I get to keep the kids straight through until actual Christmas morning and the kids get to avoid a superspreader event.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on December 15, 2020, 01:36:56 PM
The bad news: Deaths in MN are making their hard run following the surge in confirmed cases, as expected.

Better news: When normalized per capita, MN death rates are still less than half of what is burning through Iowa and the Dakotas. Also, everyone stayed home over Thanksgiving. The dreaded surge has officially failed to materialize. 

https://twitter.com/dhmontgomery/status/1338894759654354945?s=20
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 15, 2020, 01:58:58 PM
your better news is not good news for your neighbors
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 15, 2020, 02:23:27 PM
Update from Florida:

(https://i.imgur.com/kVSrsHx.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on December 15, 2020, 02:54:15 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 15, 2020, 01:58:58 PM
your better news is not good news for your neighbors
You and I both know that. Yet, my acquaintances have gone back to loudly proclaiming that Kristi Noem is God's gift to governance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 15, 2020, 02:55:31 PM
I guess we can put a Thanksgiving surge to bed, for Wisconsin.

(https://i.imgur.com/Rx6nmEP.png)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 15, 2020, 02:59:54 PM
This is a good thing I think

https://www.foxnews.com/health/at-home-over-the-counter-coronavirus-antigen-test-kit-gets-fda-authorization
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 15, 2020, 04:00:52 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on December 15, 2020, 02:54:15 PM
You and I both know that. Yet, my acquaintances have gone back to loudly proclaiming that Kristi Noem is God's gift to governance.
hah, well she knows how to ride a horse
and looks good in jeans, boots, and a hat

other than that....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 15, 2020, 04:02:41 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 15, 2020, 01:25:31 PM
Good news. My ex and her family wised up and so they canceled their large Christmas party this weekend. So I get to keep the kids straight through until actual Christmas morning and the kids get to avoid a superspreader event.
that's great news
I also got great news from my youngest daughter today.  Not only did she graduate from UNL, she got a job in her field of study working for the state of Nebraska.  Decent pay and great benefits.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 15, 2020, 05:25:21 PM
Its amazing what happens after the election

https://lenbilen.com/2020/12/14/american-medical-association-rescinds-previous-statement-against-prescription-of-hydroxychloroquine-to-covid-19-patients/

How many lives were lost because of politics
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 15, 2020, 05:26:43 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 15, 2020, 04:02:41 PM
that's great news
I also got great news from my youngest daughter today.  Not only did she graduate from UNL, she got a job in her field of study working for the state of Nebraska.  Decent pay and great benefits.
congrats Fearless

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 15, 2020, 05:29:38 PM
Had my last session of physical therapy today with the wife, the therapist told me, when asked, that elective surgery has NOT been cancelled.  She heard it was going to be here, they are part of one of the four major hospital chains in the area.  She said apparently they are holding their own even with this rise in the state.  The metro area has been hit less hard in most parts than some rural counties.  The rise in new cases has not yet resulted in a scary rise in hospitalizations to near the critical point, which of course indicates the new cases are younger on average, I think.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 15, 2020, 06:43:43 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 15, 2020, 05:29:38 PM
Had my last session of physical therapy today with the wife, the therapist told me, when asked, that elective surgery has NOT been cancelled.  She heard it was going to be here, they are part of one of the four major hospital chains in the area.  She said apparently they are holding their own even with this rise in the state.  The metro area has been hit less hard in most parts than some rural counties.  The rise in new cases has not yet resulted in a scary rise in hospitalizations to near the critical point, which of course indicates the new cases are younger on average, I think.
Been hearing about it here. Hoag (one of the major hospital groups near me) has stopped elective surgeries.

Our regional ICU capacity is at 0% now. 

It's ugly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 16, 2020, 06:17:56 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 15, 2020, 05:25:21 PM
Its amazing what happens after the election

https://lenbilen.com/2020/12/14/american-medical-association-rescinds-previous-statement-against-prescription-of-hydroxychloroquine-to-covid-19-patients/

How many lives were lost because of politics
Yes, and a vaccine before the year end.  Shocking. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 16, 2020, 06:50:07 AM
This AMA resolution did not pass the vote of delegates, which is not surprising. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 16, 2020, 07:57:55 AM
They did not even treat Trump with that stuff.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 16, 2020, 09:05:22 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 16, 2020, 07:57:55 AM
They did not even treat Trump with that stuff.
He said he had taken it previously

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 16, 2020, 10:51:29 AM
I get an NYT news feed (it's free) and today's went on at length about how bad the US was handling COVID.  Oddly enough, they didn't talk  about how badly Europe was doing a month ago, and their only "solution" is more shutdowns.

It's a sort of Blame America site it seems and they ignore when our cousins overseas are doing worse at whatever it is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 16, 2020, 10:53:30 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 16, 2020, 10:51:29 AM
I get an NYT news feed (it's free) and today's went on at length about how bad the US was handling COVID.  Oddly enough, they didn't talk  about how badly Europe was doing a month ago, and their only "solution" is more shutdowns.

It's a sort of Blame America site it seems and they ignore when our cousins overseas are doing worse at whatever it is.
The NYT is a rag and a complete waste of time.  It hasn't been a worthwhile publication in over two decades.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 16, 2020, 12:56:26 PM
Quote from: utee94 on December 16, 2020, 10:53:30 AM
The NYT is a rag and a complete waste of time.  It hasn't been a worthwhile publication in over two decades.
You are being kind.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 16, 2020, 03:14:08 PM
Updated for today:

(https://i.imgur.com/k0bqAtm.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 16, 2020, 03:14:59 PM
Wisconsin:

(https://i.imgur.com/kbKxUEp.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 17, 2020, 03:55:26 PM
Update for today:

(https://i.imgur.com/EFEkivl.png)

Wisconsin:

(https://i.imgur.com/68SOO3v.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 17, 2020, 04:03:21 PM
Quote from: utee94 on December 16, 2020, 10:53:30 AM
The NYT is a rag and a complete waste of time.  It hasn't been a worthwhile publication in over two decades.

I disagree, but I only get their daily news feed, which at times is a bit dubious.  I do read on occasion other articles about apolitical stuff and find them well written in the main.  I like to take in "news" from a variety of sources.

Some of my FB friends are in the health care sector and several have had THE SHOT.  So far so good, they report.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 17, 2020, 04:06:41 PM
My wife will be getting the Moderna as soon as they're available at her medical office. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on December 18, 2020, 07:13:03 AM
Well I had an interesting week. Woke up Sunday morning with a pounding headache and fever ( and no I hadn’t been drinking ). Had a fever all day Sunday and Monday, and the headache persisted as well. Felt better Wednesday but went ahead and got tested. Got the results back last night...positive. The funny thing is that nobody else in my house has been sick yet. If I truly had corona I’m  relieved because I’m not scared of it anymore. 

Explain to me though how out of four family members I’m the only one who got sick?  Be careful out there.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: TyphonInc on December 18, 2020, 07:27:44 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 17, 2020, 04:06:41 PM
My wife will be getting the Moderna as soon as they're available at her medical office.

Conspiracy in 3 ... 2... 1
hmmm. The Chinese had Moderna back in January a year ago.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/12/moderna-covid-19-vaccine-design.html

but gosh China didn't know anything about this disease prior to that hibernating pesky bat, flying 1200 miles on his own, to infect a a pangolin (neither of which are sold at said wet market) and getting the original 34 sick who had no contact with said wet market.

But gee wizz, 2 and half miles down the road there was an infectious bio lab, who was studying those exacts bats, and this exact disease, and all 34 original victims had 1st or 2nd degree contract tracing with said lab, that now had the vaccine before the disease was even in America...

And Trump is the crazy one for calling it the China Disease. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 18, 2020, 08:54:44 AM
350,000 dead Americans.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 18, 2020, 08:56:19 AM
That doesn't count the dead Americans who have died from OD, alcohol poisoning, suicide, increased violence, etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 18, 2020, 09:48:49 AM
Interesting read from the Trib.

How to cut out alcohol, weed, drugs during COVID-19 pandemic - Chicago Tribune (https://www.chicagotribune.com/living/health/ct-life-alcohol-weed-drugs-health-covid-19-roundup-20201217-qquxy3hrgjcrjjhqiegwfjo6jm-story.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 18, 2020, 10:38:28 AM
Quote from: TyphonInc on December 18, 2020, 07:27:44 AM
Conspiracy in 3 ... 2... 1
hmmm. The Chinese had Moderna back in January a year ago.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/12/moderna-covid-19-vaccine-design.html

but gosh China didn't know anything about this disease prior to that hibernating pesky bat, flying 1200 miles on his own, to infect a a pangolin (neither of which are sold at said wet market) and getting the original 34 sick who had no contact with said wet market.

But gee wizz, 2 and half miles down the road there was an infectious bio lab, who was studying those exacts bats, and this exact disease, and all 34 original victims had 1st or 2nd degree contract tracing with said lab, that now had the vaccine before the disease was even in America...

And Trump is the crazy one for calling it the China Disease.
With modern tools, getting a genetic sequence from pretty much anything is trivial. What they had in January (2 months after the first outbreaks in China) was the full genetic sequence of the virus. 

That doesn't mean "China had the vaccine" in January. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: TyphonInc on December 18, 2020, 01:25:04 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 18, 2020, 10:38:28 AM
With modern tools, getting a genetic sequence from pretty much anything is trivial. What they had in January (2 months after the first outbreaks in China) was the full genetic sequence of the virus.

That doesn't mean "China had the vaccine" in January.

That's not what the article says. It says they had the exact Moderna cure we are using now back in January. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 18, 2020, 01:36:05 PM
Moderna’s mRNA-1273, which reported a 94.5 percent efficacy rate (https://www.thecut.com/2020/11/a-second-covid-vaccine-may-be-nearly-95-percent-effective.html) on November 16, had been designed by January 13. This was just two days after the genetic sequence had been made public in an act of scientific and humanitarian generosity that resulted in China’s Yong-Zhen Zhang’s being temporarily forced out of his lab. 


The article says the DESIGN was in hand.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 18, 2020, 01:50:59 PM
Quote from: TyphonInc on December 18, 2020, 01:25:04 PM
That's not what the article says. It says they had the exact Moderna cure we are using now back in January.
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 18, 2020, 01:36:05 PM
Moderna’s mRNA-1273, which reported a 94.5 percent efficacy rate (https://www.thecut.com/2020/11/a-second-covid-vaccine-may-be-nearly-95-percent-effective.html) on November 16, had been designed by January 13. This was just two days after the genetic sequence had been made public in an act of scientific and humanitarian generosity that resulted in China’s Yong-Zhen Zhang’s being temporarily forced out of his lab.


The article says the DESIGN was in hand.
It says that China started vaccinating their military in June, and Russia rolled out their vaccine in August. 

The article has many points to make--about perhaps our FDA may be too cautious in the face of a known killer disease. That is certainly a valid argument. Although the FDA actually moved FAR faster than it typically does, could an argument be made that they should have gone faster, or changed the processes, to get things out even sooner? Perhaps.

But the article doesn't say China had the vaccine in January. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 18, 2020, 02:53:06 PM
Today's update:


(https://i.imgur.com/Tpkld0G.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/dKvqV75.png)

Wisconsin:

(https://i.imgur.com/yMPQRR3.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 18, 2020, 03:03:45 PM
So we don't trust anything China and Russia say, unless it aligns with our confirmation bias?  I gotta write these rules down to fit in around here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 18, 2020, 03:09:59 PM
I don't doubt China and Russia may have vaccinated their armed forces months ago.  They have a closeted clientel.  Our military today gets a whole raft of shots before deploying overseas.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 18, 2020, 03:11:25 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 18, 2020, 03:03:45 PM
So we don't trust anything China and Russia say, unless it aligns with our confirmation bias?  I gotta write these rules down to fit in around here.
Huh? 

China and Russia are both well-known to take a much different view of human rights than we have in the United States (or Europe, or most of the rest of the first world). If they experience some deaths or long-term complications in a small portion of people to get the vaccine out faster, I think they might view that as an acceptable sacrifice. 

While I sometimes think [in agreement with that article] that our own FDA is over-cautious, and they may place their balance of risk vs reward too much on avoiding risk, the flip side of that is that when something actually does get FDA approval, we place very high faith in that stamp of approval. 

So... Exactly what is your point? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on December 18, 2020, 03:16:45 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 18, 2020, 03:11:25 PM
Huh?

China and Russia are both well-known to take a much different view of human rights than we have in the United States (or Europe, or most of the rest of the first world). If they experience some deaths or long-term complications in a small portion of people to get the vaccine out faster, I think they might view that as an acceptable sacrifice.

While I sometimes think [in agreement with that article] that our own FDA is over-cautious, and they may place their balance of risk vs reward too much on avoiding risk, the flip side of that is that when something actually does get FDA approval, we place very high faith in that stamp of approval.

So... Exactly what is your point?
This is exactly true.  

Any democratic bureaucracy acts this way.  It doesn't matter if they are charged with protecting people from bad medicines or bad dams or bad anything else.  If they are over-cautious they can blame the lives lost on the virus or the flood so it isn't "their fault".  However, if they are under-cautious the deaths will be 100% on them.  Thus, they ALWAYS err on the side of caution.  In China/Russia this is not as much of an issue because they can censor the news.  Our way is generally better but certainly not always.  Winston Churchill once said that "Democracy is the worst form of government except all of the others."  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 18, 2020, 03:23:23 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 18, 2020, 03:03:45 PM
So we don't trust anything China and Russia say, unless it aligns with our confirmation bias?  I gotta write these rules down to fit in around here.
What is it in the report that you think we don't believe, or do believe in should not?

Some of us are trying to discuss what it may mean.  I don't think anyone takes it as complete truth, but parts may be true obviously.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 18, 2020, 03:30:57 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 18, 2020, 03:11:25 PM
So... Exactly what is your point?
It's on his head
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 18, 2020, 08:03:50 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 18, 2020, 03:03:45 PM
So we don't trust anything China and Russia say, unless it aligns with our confirmation bias?  I gotta write these rules down to fit in around here.
firstly, if you want to believe the commies, go ahead
2nd, you don't seem to trust anything that doesn't align with your confirmation bias
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 20, 2020, 09:34:36 AM
Yesterday.


(https://i.imgur.com/tmm0HHS.png)

Wisconsin:

(https://i.imgur.com/rivSZFf.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 20, 2020, 10:47:51 AM
I got encouraging news from my buddy, Chip, yesterday

He was on a ventilator for 3 or 4 days.  He's off the ventilator as of yesterday!!!!

He also sent me a text yesterday.  A simple thumbs up

he may be able to take a visit from his son today.

Things are looking up.  Still a ways to go, but encouraging news for sure!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 20, 2020, 10:54:41 AM
Great to hear. Thanks for letting us know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 20, 2020, 10:57:17 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/du7nxss.png)


Here it comes!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 20, 2020, 11:16:45 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 20, 2020, 10:47:51 AM
I got encouraging news from my buddy, Chip, yesterday

He was on a ventilator for 3 or 4 days.  He's off the ventilator as of yesterday!!!!

He also sent me a text yesterday.  A simple thumbs up

he may be able to take a visit from his son today.

Things are looking up.  Still a ways to go, but encouraging news for sure!

Great news, Chip has my best wishes!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: TyphonInc on December 20, 2020, 11:18:23 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 20, 2020, 10:47:51 AM
I got encouraging news from my buddy, Chip, yesterday

He was on a ventilator for 3 or 4 days.  He's off the ventilator as of yesterday!!!!

He also sent me a text yesterday.  A simple thumbs up

he may be able to take a visit from his son today.

Things are looking up.  Still a ways to go, but encouraging news for sure!
I'll keep praying. Good news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 20, 2020, 11:19:32 AM
Awesome news!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 20, 2020, 11:30:59 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 20, 2020, 10:47:51 AM
I got encouraging news from my buddy, Chip, yesterday

He was on a ventilator for 3 or 4 days.  He's off the ventilator as of yesterday!!!!

He also sent me a text yesterday.  A simple thumbs up

he may be able to take a visit from his son today.

Things are looking up.  Still a ways to go, but encouraging news for sure!
Thats great news


I consider myself lucky as I dont know of anyone down with the virus

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 20, 2020, 11:44:49 AM
Quote from: utee94 on December 20, 2020, 11:16:45 AM
Great news, Chip has my best wishes!
Chip made the trip to Austin last January.  He was also at Louie Mueller in 2017.  and attended the Husker/Aggie game in College Station in 2010.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on December 20, 2020, 01:51:58 PM
Glad to hear that about Chip.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 20, 2020, 01:55:33 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 20, 2020, 11:44:49 AM
Chip made the trip to Austin last January.  He was also at Louie Mueller in 2017.  and attended the Husker/Aggie game in College Station in 2010.
Hope you and Chip are digging divots and intercepting the Beer Cart soon enough
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 20, 2020, 01:59:47 PM
Amen brother

thanks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 21, 2020, 10:04:05 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/SRMj46G.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 21, 2020, 10:16:13 AM
doesn't piss me off any differently than walking back to my car because I've forgotten anything else

I've been doing that since I started driving and it happens more frequently as I grow older
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 21, 2020, 10:22:58 AM
Yesterday's reporting:

(https://i.imgur.com/XcCKomz.png)

Wisconsin:

(https://i.imgur.com/HQdXYLa.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 21, 2020, 03:25:23 PM
badge, tell us why there haven't been any travel restrictions from the UK yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 21, 2020, 03:44:28 PM
Speaking of the UK... Here's what I've been reading:

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/21/1015315/the-uk-is-spooking-everyone-with-its-new-covid-19-strain-heres-what-scientists-know/
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-new-strain-uk-what-we-know/
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/12/what-is-the-new-covid-19-strain-that-shut-down-england-u-k.html
https://time.com/5923758/new-covid-strain-uk/

The tl;dr version:



IMHO, this is one reason [on top of so many others] that "natural herd immunity" was a bad idea. Viruses mutate, and the more hosts and the wider the spread is, the more opportunity they have to mutate. Avoiding spread as much as possible until a vaccine can be developed ensures that you only have one monster to fight. If it's allowed to spread too long, unchecked, you might realize you've got three or four different monsters that all require different vaccines by the time you're done. Hopefully that hasn't happened here. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 21, 2020, 03:49:18 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 21, 2020, 03:25:23 PM
badge, tell us why there haven't been any travel restrictions from the UK yet.
Possibly because it first emerged in September so it's almost certainly here?

And Europe locking down the UK might just be sour grapes over Brexit? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 21, 2020, 04:18:46 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 21, 2020, 03:49:18 PM
Possibly because it first emerged in September so it's almost certainly here?

And Europe locking down the UK might just be sour grapes over Brexit?
Yes to both.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 21, 2020, 04:24:20 PM
It was already here when we banned travel from China.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 21, 2020, 04:26:45 PM
It was here in late October/early November. The China travel ban was widely criticized at the time by many.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 21, 2020, 04:29:09 PM
Wisconsin update for today:

(https://i.imgur.com/6akAww5.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/fAFmNQG.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 21, 2020, 04:34:31 PM
Fauci Says We Must "Keep an Eye On" the Mutation

During an interview with CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/21/politics/anthony-fauci-brett-giroir-uk-travel-ban-coronavirus/index.html), he explained that the US must "without a doubt keep an eye on it," but added that, "we don't want to overreact." He also revealed that if the matter is brought up during Monday's White House coronavirus task force meeting, he would advise against suspending flights from the UK. 

"Follow it carefully, but don't overreact to it," Fauci said about the new strain of the virus. While he is confident officials in the UK are doing the right thing by monitoring this new strain, he isn't criticizing countries who have tightened up restrictions; he just doesn't believe it is necessary. 

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (https://www.cdc.gov/) Director Robert Redfield agrees. Monday morning, Brett Giroir, the White House's coronavirus testing czar, told CNN's John Berman on New Day that travel restrictions were not currently on the table. "I think we're waiting for CDC kind of recommendations. Last night, talking to Dr. (Robert) Redfield, there was not a recommendation for that. Again, every hour we get more information. I think, as we have done and we need to do, we need to listen to the best experts," he said. "I think everything is possible. We just need to put everything on the table, have an open scientific discussion and make a best recommendation," he said when asked if a travel ban was possible.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 21, 2020, 04:47:56 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 21, 2020, 03:25:23 PM
badge, tell us why there haven't been any travel restrictions from the UK yet.
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 21, 2020, 04:24:20 PM
It was already here when we banned travel from China. 
Dude... Seriously? 

Anyone with a pulse sees exactly what fight you're trying to start... And exactly why any fight that results if people take the bait will just get posts deleted by 94. Let's not go down that road.

Frankly, the answer is that locking down travel hasn't worked... Anywhere. Not even New Zealand, which should be foolproof. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/new-zealand/

They're a low population island nation and while they've done pretty well, even locked down their borders hasn't 100% stopped cases there. 

This variant is already spreading all over the world. It's already out of the UK. Locking them down now won't do squat.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 21, 2020, 05:01:57 PM
Interesting history of mRNA usage in medicine, specifically the vaccines:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/10/the-story-of-mrna-how-a-once-dismissed-idea-became-a-leading-technology-in-the-covid-vaccine-race/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 21, 2020, 08:29:49 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 21, 2020, 04:26:45 PM
It was here in late October/early November. The China travel ban was widely criticized at the time by many.
Let me underline the part that matters.  And I'll nix the part that has nothing to do with the point being made.  Stop mimicking the talking heads on the extremist "news entertainment" networks, please.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 21, 2020, 08:40:32 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 21, 2020, 08:29:49 PM
Let me underline the part that matters.  And I'll nix the part that has nothing to do with the point being made.  Stop mimicking the talking heads on the extremist "news entertainment" networks, please.
and just what is your point

ok it was here before we banned travel from China so what

again what is your point
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 21, 2020, 09:03:42 PM
crickets
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 22, 2020, 12:27:23 AM
lol, I'm away from my computer for an hour and it's "crickets"?  You're a mental child.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 22, 2020, 12:59:46 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 22, 2020, 12:27:23 AM
lol, I'm away from my computer for an hour and it's "crickets"?  You're a mental child.
and yet you still wont answer my question



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 22, 2020, 01:21:33 AM
because I was commenting on the childishness of your mentality.


No, I don't live my life based on your timeline.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 22, 2020, 01:56:03 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 22, 2020, 01:21:33 AM
because I was commenting on the childishness of your mentality.


No, I don't live my life based on your timeline. 
For somebody thats 12 years old and still lives with his mom, youre not acting very nice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2020, 07:02:40 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 21, 2020, 08:29:49 PM
Let me underline the part that matters.  And I'll nix the part that has nothing to do with the point being made.  Stop mimicking the talking heads on the extremist "news entertainment" networks, please.
What is your point?

That the travel should have been shut off in October? 

We had no idea what was here at that time, because China covered it up, as did the WHO on their behalf.

China closed internal flights, yet left international travel open.

As soon as we knew what we had, travel was shut down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2020, 07:03:21 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 21, 2020, 04:34:31 PM
Fauci Says We Must "Keep an Eye On" the Mutation

During an interview with CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/21/politics/anthony-fauci-brett-giroir-uk-travel-ban-coronavirus/index.html), he explained that the US must "without a doubt keep an eye on it," but added that, "we don't want to overreact." He also revealed that if the matter is brought up during Monday's White House coronavirus task force meeting, he would advise against suspending flights from the UK.

"Follow it carefully, but don't overreact to it," Fauci said about the new strain of the virus. While he is confident officials in the UK are doing the right thing by monitoring this new strain, he isn't criticizing countries who have tightened up restrictions; he just doesn't believe it is necessary.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (https://www.cdc.gov/) Director Robert Redfield agrees. Monday morning, Brett Giroir, the White House's coronavirus testing czar, told CNN's John Berman on New Day that travel restrictions were not currently on the table. "I think we're waiting for CDC kind of recommendations. Last night, talking to Dr. (Robert) Redfield, there was not a recommendation for that. Again, every hour we get more information. I think, as we have done and we need to do, we need to listen to the best experts," he said. "I think everything is possible. We just need to put everything on the table, have an open scientific discussion and make a best recommendation," he said when asked if a travel ban was possible.


Did you even bother to read this 'Fro?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 22, 2020, 08:59:50 AM
So no one's covering anything up this time.  We know what we have.  And you cite Fauci when you're not insulting/ignoring him.  
I give up.
I used to respect you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2020, 09:05:44 AM
I've never disparaged or disrespected Dr. Fauci. 

I've called him out when he was wrong, like everyone else with a mind of their own, and like anyone else who has been wrong.

The only coverup in this whole thing was China and the WHO covering for them - even calling our travel shutdown racist.

(https://i.imgur.com/xKN7X2Q.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 22, 2020, 10:06:11 AM
"Follow it carefully, but don't overreact to it," Fauci said about the new strain of the virus. While he is confident officials in the UK are doing the right thing by monitoring this new strain, he isn't criticizing countries who have tightened up restrictions; he just doesn't believe it is necessary.

this is the same message we got from Fauci and many others back in February

apparently we did the right thing then, because after some experience and trial & error, we are told to do the same thing now.

don't overreact, just wear a mask
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 22, 2020, 10:26:14 AM
From what Ive read this new mutation is easier to catch but not worse health wise

The key question to me is are the current vaccines affective against it

if not then there goes the ball game

if yes then Im not very concerned
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 22, 2020, 10:27:50 AM
another thought is maybe we have this mutation right now and thats why the huge spike in positives
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2020, 10:27:55 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 22, 2020, 10:26:14 AM
From what Ive read this new mutation is easier to catch but not worse health wise

The key question to me is are the current vaccines affective against it

if not then there goes the ball game

if yes then Im not very concerned
It is being tested in labs, but so far the answer is yes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on December 22, 2020, 11:10:41 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 22, 2020, 01:21:33 AM
because I was commenting on the childishness of your mentality.

Quote from: longhorn320 on December 22, 2020, 01:56:03 AM
For somebody thats 12 years old and still lives with his mom, youre not acting very nice.

This plays into the COVID discussion - US DEATHS IN 2020 TOP 3 MILLION, by far most ever counted: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/us-deaths-2020-top-million-counted-74855303

This is statistically severe: "Final mortality data for this year will not be available for months. But preliminary numbers suggest that the United States is on track to see more than 3.2 million deaths this year, or at least 400,000 more than in 2019."

Only impoverished nations or nations under crisis experience worsening mortality rates: "But life expectancy for 2020 could end up dropping as much as three full years, said Robert Anderson of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention."

And what might be the worst news of all: "Drug overdose deaths, meanwhile, got much worse. Before the coronavirus even arrived, the U.S. was in the midst of the deadliest drug overdose epidemic in its history. Last week the CDC reported more than 81,000 drug overdose deaths in the 12 months ending in May, making it the highest number ever recorded in a one-year period. People are more likely to be taking drugs alone — without the benefit of a friend or family member who can call 911 or administer overdose-reversing medication. But perhaps a bigger factor are the drugs themselves: COVID-19 caused supply problems for dealers, so they are increasingly mixing cheap and deadly fentanyl into heroin, cocaine and methamphetamine, experts said. “I don't suspect there are a bunch of new people who suddenly started using drugs because of COVID. If anything, I think the supply of people who are already using drugs is more contaminated,” said Shannon Monnat, a Syracuse University researcher who studies drug overdose trends."

For as much as we bitch about politics and somehow expect Washington DC to have all the answers, unfortunately, a few of these problems that won't fix themselves might already be past the point of political solution. Rising global costs, household debt, and prescription/narcotic dependency (all factoring into the out of control homelessness out West) is turning America into a poorer, sicker, and more addicted nation with no end in site.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 22, 2020, 11:28:11 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on December 22, 2020, 11:10:41 AM


For as much as we bitch about politics and somehow expect Washington DC to have all the answers, unfortunately, a few of these problems that won't fix themselves might already be past the point of political solution. Rising global costs, household debt, and prescription/narcotic dependency (all factoring into the out of control homelessness out West) is turning America into a poorer, sicker, and more addicted nation with no end in site.

Not sure why all the pessimism

we have vaccines and

this spike of positive cases shows signs of trending down

and the end of this crap is very much in sight
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 22, 2020, 11:38:01 AM
Pfizer and Moderna are testing their vaccines against the new variant. Results within ~2 weeks according to the article.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/22/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 22, 2020, 11:41:28 AM
fingers crossed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2020, 11:43:00 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 22, 2020, 11:38:01 AM
Pfizer and Moderna are testing their vaccines against the new variant. Results within ~2 weeks according to the article.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/22/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html

I saw that too. The CEO of BioNTech is highly optimistic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2020, 12:06:30 PM
Some Florida reporting, from yesterday:

(https://i.imgur.com/QXVqlSl.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/wS8R3bb.png)

My zip code still has less than 5 cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 22, 2020, 01:03:48 PM
No Siouxland counties reported any COVID-19 deaths on Monday.

However, 14-day positivity rates remained high in Northwest Iowa counties.

Crawford County led the state with a rate of 24 percent. Buena Vista County had the sixth highest rate, 21.3 percent, while Ida County ranked eighth, 20.3 percent, followed by Cherokee County in ninth, 20.1 percent.

Siouxland District Health Department reported 25 new cases of the novel coronavirus Monday in Woodbury County. According to state statistics, the county, which had a positivity rate of 15 percent on Monday, had 11,850 total cases of the virus as of Monday evening.

District Health reported that 56 patients were hospitalized Monday at either MercyOne Siouxland Medical Center or UnityPoint Health -- St. Luke's, up six from Sunday.


Of those patients, 35 were hospitalized for treatment of COVID-19. Another 21 people in the hospital have the virus, but are hospitalized for other reasons. Of the total, 27 are Woodbury County residents.

As of Monday, 142 long-term care facilities in Iowa are suffering COVID-19 outbreaks. Cumulatively, long-term care outbreaks have been implicated in 1,136 of Iowa's 3,533 COVID-19 deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 22, 2020, 01:16:05 PM
California, which had been keeping case counts low as a proportion of national cases relative to population, has now crossed 10% of all cases nationally, and increasing VERY quickly.

They're at 10.4% of cases now, if they get to 12% they'll have the same proportion as the rest of the nation. Against today's denominator they'd need ~290K extra cases relative to today's and they're gaining at ~44K/day (while the next highest, TX, is gaining at ~16K/day).

Yesterday California accounted for 20% of the US's new cases, so they could probably be at 12% of the national number within 2-3 weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 22, 2020, 01:50:46 PM
The rate of increase in Georgia MAY be slowing.  Deaths have not increased much.  Hospitalizations are above July highs.

I'd say behaviors I notice have not changed at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 22, 2020, 01:56:21 PM
do all states report hospitalizations like this????

District Health reported that 56 patients were hospitalized Monday, up six from Sunday.

Of those patients, 35 were hospitalized for treatment of COVID-19. Another 21 people in the hospital have the virus, but are hospitalized for other reasons.

_________________________________________________ _______

so, I have a gunshot wound or I was in a car accident or I have an appendicitis attack?? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2020, 02:09:05 PM
I've not seen much of that kind of reporting. What I think is going on is that those patients with Covid are asymptomatic and are in the hospital for other reasons - and just happened to test positive. Now, those could also be false-positives with the rapid test. I had to get one when I went to the hospital a couple of months ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 22, 2020, 02:11:29 PM
so, hospitals are near capacity here, but 40% of COVID patients aren't there for COVID

no wonder we don't hear about a shortage of ventilators
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2020, 02:21:36 PM
Ventilators are no longer the answer, at least right away. Patients are being sedated a bit, and made to lie on their stomachs. Apparently this makes it easier to breathe.

(My DIL is an ER nurse in Lake Geneva, WI.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2020, 02:24:19 PM
Florida today:

(https://i.imgur.com/uLK74qO.png)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 22, 2020, 02:49:01 PM
a ventilator was the answer for Chip apparently.  He's still off the ventilator and his vitals and other signs point to him improving.

Got that news a few minutes ago

hope to get him out of the ICU, but no time table
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 22, 2020, 03:06:11 PM
Experts say employers can require employees to take safety measures, including vaccination. That doesn’t necessarily mean you would get fired if you refuse, but you might need to sign a waiver or agree to work under specific conditions to limit any risk you might pose to yourself or others.

“Employers generally have wide scope” to make rules for the workplace, said Dorit Reiss, a law professor who specializes in vaccine policies at the University of California Hastings College of the Law. “It’s their business.”


The U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission has allowed companies to mandate the flu and other vaccines, and has also indicated they can require COVID-19 vaccines.

There are exceptions; for example, people can request exemptions for medical or religious reasons.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 23, 2020, 04:07:12 PM
Record case count here in OC, with 4,406 new cases reported today. Thinking some of the spike might be people who are getting rapid tested as pre-clearance for travel, much like we saw before Thanksgiving. My wife says the line to the urgent care across the parking lot from her office exists, but isn't as bad as, right before Thanksgiving. Reported that we're at 0.0% regional ICU capacity again, same as yesterday.

Last week they announced a new policy that if you are picked up by ambulance and the ER at the closest hospital is full, you no longer have the option of "diversion" to another hospital. So we've seen longer wait times and more lines for overburdened ERs. 

One of my wife's Drs works part time at a hospital in Long Beach when she's not at the practice, and says they're already at the point where they've got to limit or withdraw care in some cases in order to have a chance to save the highest number of patients overall. 

It's ugly here...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 23, 2020, 04:25:00 PM
Yes, that is ugly. What hospital in LB?

Today:

(https://i.imgur.com/APApWwg.png)

WI:

(https://i.imgur.com/1AfZAtu.png)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 23, 2020, 04:31:07 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 23, 2020, 04:25:00 PM
Yes, that is ugly. What hospital in LB?

Not sure, honestly. Pretty sure it's not LB Memorial, but again I'm not 100% either way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 23, 2020, 04:44:29 PM
just saw on FB that a friend of mine, probably about 54, is going home tomorrow after six weeks in the hospital and two weeks on the ventilator.

Grew up in Iowa City, IA and graduated from U of Iowa.  Lives in Cincy.

not real close any more, didn't know he had the COVID until this afternoon
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 23, 2020, 05:03:57 PM
FF did your friend Chip come home yet
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 23, 2020, 05:05:09 PM
not yet, but he is steadily improving

fingers crossed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 23, 2020, 05:15:20 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 23, 2020, 04:31:07 PM
Not sure, honestly. Pretty sure it's not LB Memorial, but again I'm not 100% either way.
My BIL died in that LB Memorial hospital. 50 y/o and just did an Iron Man weeks prior. Picture of health. 

Anal fissure surgery - Dr. nicked his colon and he died from sepsis.

Never have surgery on a Friday. You get the B/C team that day and all weekend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 23, 2020, 05:24:44 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 23, 2020, 05:15:20 PM

Anal fissure surgery - Dr. nicked his colon and he died from sepsis.
Think I mentioned on the other board same-same for my oldest brother.Bad hernia surgey then followed it up by finishing him off.He wasn't a body builder but in good shape
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 25, 2020, 07:51:35 AM
That's not good. What went bad with the surgery?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 25, 2020, 07:52:11 AM
Vitamin D, other everyday vitamins could counter coronavirus effects: report | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/health/vitamin-d-other-everyday-vitamins-could-counter-coronavirus-effects-report)

Interesting. D, C, Zinc and some other thing to open up cells.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 25, 2020, 07:56:15 AM
Yesterday's reporting:

(https://i.imgur.com/zTR85vl.png)

WI:

(https://i.imgur.com/2qgKxPg.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 25, 2020, 08:01:17 AM
States, ranked by deaths/Million. All of these are worse than the US average:

(https://i.imgur.com/JHdmcEP.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 25, 2020, 10:22:33 AM
with that listing of states, it doesn't appear to be a political thing

seems California may be moving up on the list
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 25, 2020, 10:24:09 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 25, 2020, 07:52:11 AM
Vitamin D, other everyday vitamins could counter coronavirus effects: report | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/health/vitamin-d-other-everyday-vitamins-could-counter-coronavirus-effects-report)

Interesting. D, C, Zinc and some other thing to open up cells.
I might stand out on my deck on the south side of the house this afternoon in the bright sunshine and smoke a cigar!
shorts and flip flops - gonna be near 40
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 25, 2020, 10:33:56 AM
too depressing for me to read the entire thing..............

https://apnews.com/article/pandemics-brazil-israel-india-coronavirus-pandemic-c1ba685119fd12108dd6d89f2fb89702 (https://apnews.com/article/pandemics-brazil-israel-india-coronavirus-pandemic-c1ba685119fd12108dd6d89f2fb89702)


Journalists from The Associated Press around the world assessed how the countries where they are posted have weathered the pandemic — and where those countries stand on the cusp of year two of the contagion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 25, 2020, 11:03:31 AM
I read it, so you don't have to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 25, 2020, 11:04:36 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 25, 2020, 10:22:33 AM
with that listing of states, it doesn't appear to be a political thing

seems California may be moving up on the list
It never should have been.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 25, 2020, 12:07:56 PM
Freakin' lying CCP steaming piles,ya total deaths 4,769 even the goons in N.Korea don't believe that.Hopefully Washington DC mandates bringing all pharmaceutical mfg back west
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 25, 2020, 01:36:28 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 25, 2020, 07:52:11 AM
Vitamin D, other everyday vitamins could counter coronavirus effects: report | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/health/vitamin-d-other-everyday-vitamins-could-counter-coronavirus-effects-report)

Interesting. D, C, Zinc and some other thing to open up cells.
Yeah, the wife has had us on all three of those for months. Zinc has been hard to find.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 25, 2020, 01:50:57 PM
Dude, you live in Cali

the effective vitamin D comes from the sun!

put on your cheap sunglasses and get outside

well, if the smoke has cleared
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 25, 2020, 03:19:49 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 25, 2020, 01:36:28 PM
Yeah, the wife has had us on all three of those for months. Zinc has been hard to find.
What dosage of Zinc?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 25, 2020, 03:21:01 PM
Wisconsin today:

(https://i.imgur.com/79Advs2.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 25, 2020, 04:17:56 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 25, 2020, 01:50:57 PM
Dude, you live in Cali

the effective vitamin D comes from the sun!

put on your cheap sunglasses and get outside

well, if the smoke has cleared
Playing golf Sunday and next Wednesday.
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 25, 2020, 03:19:49 PM
What dosage of Zinc?
I think it's 50 mg daily.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on December 25, 2020, 06:14:56 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 25, 2020, 04:17:56 PM
I think it's 50 mg [of zinc] daily.
That's what I take per my doctor's recommendation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 25, 2020, 08:36:43 PM
or you could just swallow 5 pennies
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 25, 2020, 09:26:40 PM
lost my good friend, Chip, to the COVID today

Merry Christmas
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 25, 2020, 09:34:17 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 25, 2020, 09:26:40 PM
lost my good friend, Chip, to the COVID today

Merry Christmas
sorry to hear this

I thought he was getting better

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 25, 2020, 10:48:12 PM
Condolences FF, I'm very sorry to hear it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 25, 2020, 10:55:28 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 25, 2020, 09:26:40 PM
lost my good friend, Chip, to the COVID today

Merry Christmas
Condolences FF,hope your friend somehow found peace in the season
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 25, 2020, 11:17:20 PM
That just sucks Fearless.  

I am so sorry to hear that.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on December 26, 2020, 12:09:39 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 25, 2020, 09:26:40 PM
lost my good friend, Chip, to the COVID today

Merry Christmas
Jesus, I am so sorry, my friend. 

This thing is just awful, on the largest and smallest of scales. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on December 26, 2020, 12:15:47 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 25, 2020, 09:26:40 PM
lost my good friend, Chip, to the COVID today

Merry Christmas
Condolences to you. I now have two COVID-19 widows as clients. One of the spouses was a client who was in perfect health in my office Oct. 9, and dead Nov. 15. 

A few weeks ago I lost my great aunt to COVID-19, two-weeks shy of her 102nd birthday. 

It isn't over, but COVID-19 is in retreat in Iowa. In Iowa we needed personal experience with loss before many of us believed in the extent of its spread, and its deadliness. I have seen improvements in efforts on a personal level to address spread, and some who won't learn without intimate personal experience, which could be too late for them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 26, 2020, 07:16:51 AM
Very sorry FF. Virtual hug sent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on December 26, 2020, 10:14:57 AM
Very sorry, Fearless
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on December 26, 2020, 12:55:30 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 25, 2020, 07:52:11 AM
Vitamin D, other everyday vitamins could counter coronavirus effects: report | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/health/vitamin-d-other-everyday-vitamins-could-counter-coronavirus-effects-report)

Interesting. D, C, Zinc and some other thing to open up cells.
think about it. Zinc and Vitamin C are know to be effective against the common cold which is a coronavirus, so it is logical that it could (should) have an effect on COVID-19
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 26, 2020, 12:59:54 PM
Yep. Been taking those since March.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 26, 2020, 01:29:39 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 26, 2020, 12:59:54 PM
Yep. Been taking those since March.
I have been drinking a daily 12 oz V8 for years

I think theres vit C in that 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 26, 2020, 01:53:56 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/uyCt0el.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 26, 2020, 01:55:49 PM
and plenty of sodium

breakfast of champions
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on December 26, 2020, 09:42:27 PM
The good news is that my in-laws have made it through the COVID ringer without being the worse for wear. 

The bad news is that their biggest lingering effects are fatigue. Easily worn out, nap frequently, and everyone has been out by 10. All things considered, our family got really lucky. MIL still intends to get vaccinated at the earliest opportunity, her work puts her in Tier 2 of Group 1A.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 27, 2020, 08:30:47 AM
It's good they made it through, and what they are experiencing happens to a lot of older victims. I have a friend close to 70 and she had the fatigue for a couple of months before it went away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 27, 2020, 04:16:22 PM
Today:

(https://i.imgur.com/gJafS05.png)

WI:

(https://i.imgur.com/zrEJvau.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 27, 2020, 07:42:26 PM
Hate citing this source, but damn. F China.

How China Censored Covid-19 - The New York Times (nytimes.com) (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/technology/china-coronavirus-censorship.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 28, 2020, 09:34:24 AM
I hate china
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on December 28, 2020, 10:12:19 AM
Are we putting in too much hope in this first vaccine? Accounting for only older, less transmissible strains? And this with a new, more transmissible mutation surfacing in the UK earlier this month? Meaning even if we get vaccinated we’re still facing an uphill climb against further, inevitable mutations?

Rather than posting the video, I’ll paste commentary commentary from science journalist Dr Laurie Garrett during her cable news appearance last week:

Regarding variant strains: “I have to give you bad news, this is the fourth mutation…the first big mutational event occurred after the virus jumped to Italy, sometime in February or March. It was that very transmissible strain that made it to New York. The second mutational event occurred this summer when the virus somehow got into mink farms…the third one appeared in October and it is a significant change. It seems to make the virus more transmissible, and there are some indications from the South African Ministry of Health just today that it may also be more virulent in young adults. It’s spreading faster in younger adults and it seems to cause more severe disease in younger adults. And then we have the British strain, which was first noticed apparently in September. It has really swept the UK over the last three weeks. It now accounts for about forty percent of new cases in the UK and seems about 71% more transmissible compared to the routine strains of COVID-19…We may not be looking at a more virulent strain, but certainly a faster spreading strain. One set of studies seems to indicate once people are infected, their bodies actually start producing far more virus…they’re more likely to be infectious to those around them.”

Regarding the vaccine: “The general statement that’s being made by all parties associated with health departments and so on is it looks like the vaccine is going to work out. But we don’t actually have data to answer that question. It is interesting studies on using the routine nucleic acid tests to see if they are infected are missing this virus. They are tests that target the so-called S-Protein, the spike you see sticking out of the sort of ball-shaped virus. That protein is the key mutational event that seems to make this more transmissible. That protein is what logs on to a human cell and then opens the door and then the virus goes into the cell. Well it’s also what your antibodies recognize, and it does appear that at least those kinds of tests that target finding that S-Protein are missing a lot of the British infections.”

tl;dr: COVID is mutating beyond the effectiveness of what the vaccine can keep up with.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 28, 2020, 10:26:15 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on December 28, 2020, 10:12:19 AM


tl;dr: COVID is mutating beyond the effectiveness of what the vaccine can keep up with.

either the vaccines work against the latest strain or they dont

anything else is just guessing

we should know within a few weeks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 28, 2020, 11:22:54 AM
The weather here yesterday was about perfect.  We walked with my son in law to brunch and then to Ponce City Market.  Everyone was wearing a mask but the place was packed, no way to distance.  We left fairly quickly and walked south on the Beltline which also was packed.  The breweries and restaurants that now line that area were packed, seated outdoors.  The patios face west so they have sun against a slight chill.  I don't get the feeling people are "staying home" around here.

My son likes it, though he's very careful, because SF is shuttered and much here is open.  He just left for Cincy to see friends.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 28, 2020, 11:27:56 AM
people aren't staying home and masks are not effective - distancing is effective, but not often practiced
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on December 28, 2020, 11:34:34 AM
Interesting study in Nature.com on Asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 in Wuhan.

This is what I found interesting

The citywide nucleic acid screening of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan recruited nearly 10 million people, and found no newly confirmed cases with COVID-19. The detection rate of asymptomatic positive cases was very low, and there was no evidence of transmission from asymptomatic positive persons to traced close contacts. There were no asymptomatic positive cases in 96.4% of the residential communities.

Previous studies have shown that asymptomatic individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 virus were infectious3 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w#ref-CR3), and might subsequently become symptomatic4 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w#ref-CR4). Compared with symptomatic patients, asymptomatic infected persons generally have low quantity of viral loads and a short duration of viral shedding, which decrease the transmission risk of SARS-CoV-25 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w#ref-CR5). In the present study, virus culture was carried out on samples from asymptomatic positive cases, and found no viable SARS-CoV-2 virus. All close contacts of the asymptomatic positive cases tested negative, indicating that the asymptomatic positive cases detected in this study were unlikely to be infectious.

Here is the link

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 28, 2020, 11:43:56 AM
Quote from: Riffraft on December 28, 2020, 11:34:34 AM
Interesting study in Nature.com on Asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 in Wuhan.

This is what I found interesting

The citywide nucleic acid screening of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan recruited nearly 10 million people, and found no newly confirmed cases with COVID-19. The detection rate of asymptomatic positive cases was very low, and there was no evidence of transmission from asymptomatic positive persons to traced close contacts. There were no asymptomatic positive cases in 96.4% of the residential communities.

Previous studies have shown that asymptomatic individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 virus were infectious3 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w#ref-CR3), and might subsequently become symptomatic4 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w#ref-CR4). Compared with symptomatic patients, asymptomatic infected persons generally have low quantity of viral loads and a short duration of viral shedding, which decrease the transmission risk of SARS-CoV-25 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w#ref-CR5). In the present study, virus culture was carried out on samples from asymptomatic positive cases, and found no viable SARS-CoV-2 virus. All close contacts of the asymptomatic positive cases tested negative, indicating that the asymptomatic positive cases detected in this study were unlikely to be infectious.

Here is the link

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w)

This is what I found interesting... and damning.



 In addition, we would like to thank the National Social Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 18ZDA085) for supporting the fund.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on December 28, 2020, 11:56:42 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 28, 2020, 11:43:56 AM
This is what I found interesting... and damning.



In addition, we would like to thank the National Social Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 18ZDA085) for supporting the fund.
So you are saying that they are falsifying the data because of the funding source.  

I use to work with a number of scientist who received funding from a variety of sources that many might concern hoping for a certain result from the research. I can tell you that none of them would have jeopardize their reputation within the scientific community for the money.

That said I don't know if these researchers feel the same way. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 28, 2020, 11:59:18 AM
Reputation is everything in science for the vast majority.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 28, 2020, 12:04:38 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 28, 2020, 11:59:18 AM
Reputation is everything in science for the vast majority.
Yes, yes it is.


(https://i.imgur.com/TWu8xbU.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on December 28, 2020, 12:11:25 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 25, 2020, 09:26:40 PM
lost my good friend, Chip, to the COVID today

Merry Christmas
I'm sorry for your loss, Fearless.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 28, 2020, 12:20:10 PM
I don't view "Chinese authorities" as being synonymous with "scientists" and reputation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 28, 2020, 12:21:35 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 28, 2020, 12:20:10 PM
I don't view "Chinese authorities" as being synonymous with "scientists" and reputation.
Nor do I, but we do know that the "Chinese Authorities" control everything that comes out of China. And this came out of China. So?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 28, 2020, 12:22:38 PM
All close contacts of the asymptomatic positive cases tested negative, indicating that the asymptomatic positive cases detected in this study were unlikely to be infectious.

this is ed zachery what my doc told me.  the spread is from sick people, not from children or anyone asymptomatic.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 28, 2020, 12:30:43 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 28, 2020, 12:22:38 PM
All close contacts of the asymptomatic positive cases tested negative, indicating that the asymptomatic positive cases detected in this study were unlikely to be infectious.

this is ed zachery what my doc told me.  the spread is from sick people, not from children or anyone asymptomatic. 
You might want to circle back with him.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 28, 2020, 12:38:14 PM
The issue is whether scientists would distort their findings because they had some funding from some Chinese agency.

A person who is not coughing or sneezing will be LESS contagious obviously than one who is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 28, 2020, 12:41:40 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 28, 2020, 12:38:14 PM
The issue is whether scientists would distort their findings because they had some funding from some Chinese agency.

A person who is not coughing or sneezing will be LESS contagious obviously than one who is.
Not if they are in tight quarters and laughing and talking loudly.

China disappears people who do not fall in line with their narrative. We know this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 28, 2020, 02:44:21 PM
They don't laugh - the commies will get suspicious
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on December 28, 2020, 02:54:47 PM
Re: the new mutation. Isn't the vaccine aiming at the spike protein, not the main virus cell itself? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 28, 2020, 02:58:22 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on December 28, 2020, 02:54:47 PM
Re: the new mutation. Isn't the vaccine aiming at the spike protein, not the main virus cell itself?
That's they way I read it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 28, 2020, 03:07:40 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on December 28, 2020, 02:54:47 PM
Re: the new mutation. Isn't the vaccine aiming at the spike protein, not the main virus cell itself?
Yes. 

The concern is that there are a few mutations specific to the sequences that define the spike protein. So they still *think* it'll protect, but there is more risk than mutations that don't affect the spike protein. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 28, 2020, 03:15:39 PM
Cases by age group in FL and WI:

(https://i.imgur.com/wpFtlTu.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/QxJjmyJ.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 28, 2020, 04:11:54 PM
So, the article is in Nature Communications, I had not seen that piece.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on December 28, 2020, 08:37:18 PM
Not that there's anything remarkable to report, but my wife's first vaccine shot led to a slightly sore arm for a day like any other shot.  

Meanwhile, my 3rd grade daughter's teacher disclosed her positive CV test which she received the day after the semester ended.  It turns out another classmate also reported a positive case.  We tested our 9 year old, and she tested positive last week.   She's had about a 3 hr headache, which she had the morning we had her tested.  Nothing else.    First world problems, but the thing that irritates me with this, is my 11 year  (who has no symptoms, no positive test) old now has to basically sit out of school until the 15th of Jan, yet her positive testing sibling will be able to attend school a full week sooner.    The counting of days, following last exposure to a known positive test case.  I'm not going to attempt to isolate a 9 yr old and/or her 11 year old sister for two weeks, in winter during a school break.  In a former life, we'd call that child neglect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 28, 2020, 10:14:09 PM
Quote from: MarqHusker on December 28, 2020, 08:37:18 PM
  The counting of days, following last exposure to a known positive test case.  I'm not going to attempt to isolate a 9 yr old and/or her 11 year old sister for two weeks, in winter during a school break.  In a former life, we'd call that child neglect.
I get it and I feel you, but this is the problem.
The "I know what I should do, but I'm not going to do that because (insert good reason)" syndrome.  We're a country of people saying "yeah, but..." and that's why this thing is so out of control.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on December 28, 2020, 10:24:43 PM
And that's why big sis has to sit out of school another week.   Isolating a 9yr old isn't going to happen. Now, she won't leave the house and hasn't since 12/22 but zero chance I can guarantee she stays away from big sis for 3, 5, 7 , 10+ days while Dad works from home and Mom's at work.  The funny thing is, turn that kid into a 13+ and she'd love the idea of hunkering down for a week in the guest bedroom in the basement away from her evil sister and annoying parents.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on December 28, 2020, 10:48:37 PM
Quote from: MarqHusker on December 28, 2020, 08:37:18 PM
Not that there's anything remarkable to report, but my wife's first vaccine shot led to a slightly sore arm for a day like any other shot. 


Same.  My wife got her first shot today.  Said her arm feels a little more sore than it typically does with a flu shot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 29, 2020, 08:04:55 AM
Russia admits coronavirus death toll three times higher than reported | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/world/russia-admits-coronavirus-death-toll-3-times-higher-than-reported)

Surprised they came clean.

Next??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 29, 2020, 08:55:36 AM
Nope CCP holding firm @ 4,756 Deaths per 1.5 Billion
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 29, 2020, 09:53:08 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 29, 2020, 08:04:55 AM
Russia admits coronavirus death toll three times higher than reported | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/world/russia-admits-coronavirus-death-toll-3-times-higher-than-reported)

Surprised they came clean.

Next??
well, they are a bit cleaner than before

still might be hiding a pile of dirt
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on December 29, 2020, 09:56:14 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 28, 2020, 12:21:35 PM
Nor do I, but we do know that the "Chinese Authorities" control everything that comes out of China. And this came out of China. So?
How about the University of Florida Study and published by JAMA, can that be trusted?

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2774102 (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2774102)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 29, 2020, 10:29:06 AM
Quote from: Riffraft on December 29, 2020, 09:56:14 AM
How about the University of Florida Study and published by JAMA, can that be trusted?

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2774102 (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2774102)
I read the whole thing.

Looks credible, Funded by the NIH. It does have limitations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on December 29, 2020, 01:07:42 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 29, 2020, 10:29:06 AM
I read the whole thing.

Looks credible, Funded by the NIH. It does have limitations.
I agree there is some limitations, but along with the China study, it gives credence to the idea that asymptomatic carrier do not spread the virus.

Which kind of hits the whole lockdown because you can unknowingly spread it because you might have the virus but have no symptoms idea. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 29, 2020, 01:14:10 PM
If contagion is primarily respiratory exhalations of droplets, asymptomatic folks wouldn't be expected to spread it very much unless you kiss them.  I'd guess it is possible, but rare.  Folks do sneeze or cough even normally.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 29, 2020, 01:23:09 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 29, 2020, 01:14:10 PM
If contagion is primarily respiratory exhalations of droplets, asymptomatic folks wouldn't be expected to spread it very much unless you kiss them.  I'd guess it is possible, but rare.  Folks do sneeze or cough even normally.


That's my concern. Everyone coughs and sneezes. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 29, 2020, 01:31:50 PM
perhaps droplets of asymptomatic folks don't carry much of the virus?

when my doc explained it to me, I took it as asymptomatic folks, could spread the virus, but not nearly as much as sick people

but, asymptomatic would mean no headache, no fever, no loss of taste or smell

so, if you have a slight fever or headache, you could be a superspreader
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on December 29, 2020, 10:55:55 PM
Among friends who have gotten their first shot of the vaccine, the primary side effect was bragging about getting vaccinated. Even more than sore arms and fever.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 30, 2020, 09:27:01 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/EghVcIF.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 31, 2020, 11:41:13 AM
Georgia "MAY" have peaked, again.  It could still be a blip.  Hospitalizations is above the June peak by quite a bit.  Deaths remain lowish.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 31, 2020, 12:22:21 PM
right now national positive cases are trending down but we really wont know if its for real until next week and we are past the holidays
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 02, 2021, 12:56:01 PM
LONDON — The U.K. has registered a record 57,725 daily coronavirus cases.

Government figures show the U.K. has recorded five straight daily highs — all above 50,000 and nearly double the levels of two weeks ago.

Also, hospitals in Britain have started receiving batches of the coronavirus vaccine developed by Oxford University and AstraZeneca, approved by British regulators this week.

Some 530,000 doses of the vaccine will be available for rollout across the country from Monday. Nursing home residents and their caretakers, those over 80 and hospital staff are set to receive the first doses.

The Princess Royal Hospital in Haywards Heath, part of Brighton and Sussex University Hospitals NHS Trust in southern England, was one of the first to get the vaccine.

More than a million people in the U.K. have received their first shot of the Pfizer vaccine.

The government says 445 people have died in the 28 days after testing positive for the coronavirus. That takes the confirmed total to 74,570, the sixth-highest death toll in the world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 02, 2021, 01:30:20 PM
Is this the new strain running rampant, you think?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 02, 2021, 01:41:46 PM
no idea, strange that wasn't mentioned in the article
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 02, 2021, 02:22:18 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on January 02, 2021, 01:30:20 PM
Is this the new strain running rampant, you think?
Sounds like it's been here longer than originally thought. Like, maybe October??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on January 02, 2021, 07:59:38 PM
Out 9yr old is free to emerge from her quarantine.   She gets to run the errands now for the week ahead.  ;)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 03, 2021, 10:08:22 AM
As the Covid-19 pandemic unfolds across the United States, one of the greatest barriers we are encountering is the absence of credible and consistent data.  Tracking daily hospitalization data is a major step forward in quantifying the current impact on local hospital systems, modeling and forecasting future utilization needs, and tracking the rate of change in the disease severity. 

The Medical Industry Leadership Institute (MILI) and the Management Information Systems Research Center (MISRC) at the Carlson School of Management has launched this project on March 26th to consistently track and report daily hospitalizations from all 50 states.


https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project (https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project)


COVID-19 Hospitalizations by State

Data collected by the UMN COVID-19 Hospitalization Tracking Project team from state websites. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on January 04, 2021, 06:40:53 PM
Well I tested positive around Dec 15th. Had a fever and pounding head ache for two days, fatigued for a few days after that. Nobody else in my house got it, even though we didn’t isolate from each other. Fortunately I was already planning to take off work the last two weeks of the year. 

I’m giving blood on Wednesday to see if I have the COVID antibodies. I suspect that I don’t, and that my positive test is bogus. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 04, 2021, 06:49:23 PM
Had a fever and pounding head ache for two days, fatigued for a few days after that.

Classic symptoms - why do you feel you had something other than COVID?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 04, 2021, 06:57:51 PM
@Gigem (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1706) did anyone else in your house get tested, or are you concluding that they didn't get it due to lack of symptoms?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on January 04, 2021, 07:13:08 PM
Well I’m going off symptoms. But I guess it’s possible others were infected, but I doubt it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on January 04, 2021, 07:17:48 PM
Quote from: Gigem on January 04, 2021, 07:13:08 PM
Well I’m going off symptoms. But I guess it’s possible others were infected, but I doubt it.
Yeah, but those are the symptoms of Covid.  My brother in law had it over Thanksgiving and described his symptoms almost word for word like you did.  Pounding headache and fever for a couple of days and then fatigued for a few days after.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on January 04, 2021, 07:21:23 PM
Oh, I’m following now.  You doubt it was Covid because you didn’t isolate from your family and they never experienced any symptoms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 04, 2021, 07:37:22 PM
Many people don't get symptoms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 04, 2021, 07:40:30 PM
Here is the uptick. Lots of people just moved back here from the NE and MW. 30% of these new cases are in Dade and Broward. Go figure. Lots of younger people on the list, but the hospitalizations are coming up too.

(https://i.imgur.com/0Hi6pCv.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 04, 2021, 07:41:34 PM
Wisconsin. Not a major uptick, but it's still early.

(https://i.imgur.com/u3f61Nd.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 04, 2021, 07:45:21 PM
many families have had one member get COVID and the others do not

seems strange as hell to me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 04, 2021, 07:45:53 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 04, 2021, 07:41:34 PM
Wisconsin. Not a major uptick, but it's still early.


Happy Holidaze
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on January 04, 2021, 08:24:00 PM
Well, I guess we will find out when the antibody tests come back. I pretty much get sick once every year or so with the exact symptoms. I just have no confidence in the COVID tests, so many false positives. And false negatives. 

For those who think that I did not take this serious recall that I lost my dad to COVID in October. Just not any practical way for me to stay isolated for 10 days. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on January 04, 2021, 08:32:00 PM
I’m a little puzzled at how the vaccine rollout has been going. I heard they wanted to get 20 million doses out by years end but only got out 4 million. I almost wonder what the models would say if they switched to a demand based distribution and not a tiered distribution. Simply put, vaccinate anybody and everybody who wants it without regard to essential worker status or age. I’m not sure if the choke point is in the actual distribution method, trying to verify eligibility, controlling supplies, etc.  Kind of a low tide lowers all ships scenario where getting as many doses out as possible mathematically lowers the overall case rate which lowers the overall risk. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 04, 2021, 08:51:26 PM
Quote from: Gigem on January 04, 2021, 08:32:00 PM
I’m a little puzzled at how the vaccine rollout has been going. I heard they wanted to get 20 million doses out by years end but only got out 4 million. I almost wonder what the models would say if they switched to a demand based distribution and not a tiered distribution. Simply put, vaccinate anybody and everybody who wants it without regard to essential worker status or age. I’m not sure if the choke point is in the actual distribution method, trying to verify eligibility, controlling supplies, etc.  Kind of a low tide lowers all ships scenario where getting as many doses out as possible mathematically lowers the overall case rate which lowers the overall risk.
Theres a lot of folks scratching their heads over this

I too have no clue why the roll out is going so slow
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 04, 2021, 10:32:54 PM
I'd guess the holidays slowed things some
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 04, 2021, 11:22:39 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 04, 2021, 08:51:26 PM
Theres a lot of folks scratching their heads over this

I too have no clue why the roll out is going so slow
Hint:  we're not allowed to discuss the real reason.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 04, 2021, 11:35:50 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 04, 2021, 11:22:39 PM
Hint:  we're not allowed to discuss the real reason.
what? The tooth fairy is hoarding vaccine.

The truth is out there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 05, 2021, 10:30:46 AM
some wacko pharmacist in Wisconsin shit canned 500 doses 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on January 05, 2021, 10:43:32 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 02, 2021, 12:56:01 PM
LONDON — The U.K. has registered a record 57,725 daily coronavirus cases.

Government figures show the U.K. has recorded five straight daily highs — all above 50,000 and nearly double the levels of two weeks ago.

Mutant strain continues to get out of hand in Britain. Boris Johnson, who seems in over his head at this point, is declaring a nationwide lockdown through mid-February. From the Daily Beast (https://www.thedailybeast.com/britains-mutant-coronavirus-strain-has-swamped-the-nation-but-a-worse-one-has-already-arrived):

"The speed of the turnaround has been astonishing and terrifying. At the end of November, following a nationwide lockdown in England, Britain’s case numbers had declined to around 13,000 a day. Now the country has recorded more than 50,000 cases for six days in a row. The message to the world appears to be clear—the new variant spreads faster, and, without strict preventative measures, this will happen to you too."

"Britain’s surge comes despite the planned Christmas relaxation being scrapped, schools closing down for Christmas, and the biggest city, London, being in the top tier of lockdown for two weeks. Experts have been warning for weeks that the new variant spreads so quickly that rules that may have worked last year are no longer enough. Political leaders are now scrambling to find how to knock it back, or face catastrophe."

"Even more worryingly, though, is Hancock’s belief that the new British variant may not even be the biggest threat facing an already engulfed nation. He said Monday that he’s “incredibly worried” about a South African variant that has been deemed even more transmissible than the British one—and two cases of it have been confirmed in Britain."


https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1345839036393521154


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 05, 2021, 10:53:21 AM
That's horrifying.

Is there any definitive news yet on how severe symptoms are with the newer, more transmissible strains?

We know from past history, that often times viruses that become more transmissible, also become less severe, as a result of their natural survival mechanisms.   Although this particular coronavirus also doesn't behave like a lot of other viruses, either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on January 05, 2021, 01:42:32 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 05, 2021, 10:53:21 AM
That's horrifying.

Is there any definitive news yet on how severe symptoms are with the newer, more transmissible strains?

We know from past history, that often times viruses that become more transmissible, also become less severe, as a result of their natural survival mechanisms.  Although this particular coronavirus also doesn't behave like a lot of other viruses, either.
I believe that I read early on that the more-transmissible virus is about 70% less deadly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 05, 2021, 03:17:05 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on January 05, 2021, 01:42:32 PM
I believe that I read early on that the more-transmissible virus is about 70% less deadly.
I haven't read anything like that. 

But I have to think that it's not accurate. If this was reported "early on", it would have continued to show up in the evidence of mortality of the new strain. If it had been corroborated anywhere, this sort of thing would be reported extremely widely and everyone would be talking about it. But... Crickets.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 05, 2021, 04:21:09 PM
The 70% I read was that it's 70% more transmissible. 

There is a study in the UK (ongoing) that is saying that the most likely to contract this variant are people under 20. Not peer reviewed yet, so I'm not going to cite it here. 

But, I read it today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 05, 2021, 04:23:43 PM
Today's updates:

(https://i.imgur.com/E6eVUY6.png)

WI:

(https://i.imgur.com/kPX5xfJ.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/d4nSwHy.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 05, 2021, 04:25:39 PM
One thing I've noticed around here the past few weeks is the large number of college kids (grandkids, most likely) that are out and about down here right now. Even in our development. I'm looking forward to when they get the hell out of here, so we can go out again. Damn spreaders.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 05, 2021, 05:26:21 PM
12.73%
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on January 05, 2021, 09:13:28 PM
My sister-in-law has it.  She found out today.  I spent a couple of hours with my brother (her husband) Sunday.  Both of us were masked and stayed distant, but. . . .
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 05, 2021, 10:31:07 PM
good luck, Sooner
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 06, 2021, 08:10:47 AM
The new (UK) strain is in my county.  

Getting my second test today- have had a few aches/chills off and on these last few days. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 06, 2021, 09:04:45 AM
Good luck and hang in there, CWS and HB.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 06, 2021, 09:18:18 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 05, 2021, 04:25:39 PM
One thing I've noticed around here the past few weeks is the large number of college kids (grandkids, most likely) that are out and about down here right now. Even in our development. I'm looking forward to when they get the hell out of here, so we can go out again. Damn spreaders.
It's you damn newbies bringing in the evasive contaminants - wash your hands,cover your mouths and pick up those stoogie butts
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 06, 2021, 09:19:17 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 06, 2021, 09:04:45 AM
Good luck and hang in there, CWS and HB.

THIS
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 06, 2021, 09:26:30 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 06, 2021, 09:04:45 AM
Good luck and hang in there, CWS and HB.

This. Best wishes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 06, 2021, 09:27:07 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on January 06, 2021, 09:18:18 AM
It's you damn newbies bringing in the evasive contaminants - wash your hands,cover your mouths and pick up those stoogie butts
Welp.. Since me and Mrs. 847 already had it, probably not?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 06, 2021, 09:53:48 AM
Where do you suspect you contacted it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 06, 2021, 10:06:09 AM
On an airplane, March 1.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on January 06, 2021, 10:41:55 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 06, 2021, 09:04:45 AM
Good luck and hang in there, CWS and HB.

THIS
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 06, 2021, 02:52:10 PM
Wife gets the vaccine Saturday. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 06, 2021, 03:02:25 PM
Great news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 06, 2021, 03:03:39 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on January 06, 2021, 02:52:10 PM
Wife gets the vaccine Saturday.
Cool.  Mine gets her first dose tomorrow.  Hoping for no reactions/side effects.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 06, 2021, 04:52:50 PM
Just read that the number of vaccinations in US is aprox 5,000,000
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on January 06, 2021, 06:52:29 PM
My esposita and I are getting tested tomorrow.  Swab-up-the-nose test.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 06, 2021, 06:59:58 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on January 06, 2021, 06:52:29 PM
My esposita and I are getting tested tomorrow.  Swab-up-the-nose test.
oh joy
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on January 06, 2021, 07:36:32 PM
Lookin' forward to it, not so much.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 07, 2021, 08:54:29 AM
It's not that bad. They don't jam it in anymore.

At CVS you do it yourself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 07, 2021, 09:34:26 AM
no wonder there are false negatives and positives

Jam it in there!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 07, 2021, 09:36:51 AM
That's what she said
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on January 07, 2021, 10:49:53 AM
My wife's group is starting in on the 2nd dose this next week or so.   Will see how this goes?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 07, 2021, 11:07:19 AM
I got an email from my doc saying I was now eligible for the vaccine, but then said they had no details and to watch for another email.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on January 07, 2021, 11:51:37 AM
My folks (70+) in WY are getting dose 1 this month.  They are not 'high risk' via conditions just high risk due to age.  In other words just regular old people. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 07, 2021, 12:06:03 PM
Quote from: MarqHusker on January 07, 2021, 11:51:37 AM
My folks (70+) in WY are getting dose 1 this month.  They are not 'high risk' via conditions just high risk due to age.  In other words just regular old people.
They aint regular

It took a lot of hard work to get to their age

Do you realize just how much crazy shit they had to abstain from to get there
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on January 07, 2021, 03:06:58 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 07, 2021, 08:54:29 AM
It's not that bad. They don't jam it in anymore.

At CVS you do it yourself.
We're going to CVS.  I just watched the little video they send out.  It said to stick it 1 inch into the nostril.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 07, 2021, 03:07:53 PM
Update:

(https://i.imgur.com/5jZfRYm.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/2CPCrlG.png)

WI:

(https://i.imgur.com/0ngIcTA.png)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 07, 2021, 08:25:27 PM
Good news: https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/01/06/1015822/covid-19-immunity-likely-lasts-for-years/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 07, 2021, 09:48:25 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on January 07, 2021, 08:25:27 PM
Good news: https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/01/06/1015822/covid-19-immunity-likely-lasts-for-years/
Hope thats right
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 08, 2021, 10:08:39 AM
Florida has nearly half of known US cases of COVID variant (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/florida-has-nearly-half-of-known-us-cases-of-covid-variant/ar-BB1cA01l?ocid=hplocalnews)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 08, 2021, 11:18:40 AM
time for a lock down
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 08, 2021, 11:28:46 AM
Not gonna happen here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 08, 2021, 12:05:04 PM
I got an email that I can try and get an appointment Jan. 11.

I can walk to the doc from here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 08, 2021, 12:06:18 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 08, 2021, 11:28:46 AM
Not gonna happen here.
Just more dead people.  Thanks, Ron.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 08, 2021, 12:36:57 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 08, 2021, 12:06:18 PM
Just more dead people.  Thanks, Ron.

"The Governor will not lock down and hurt families who can't afford to shelter in place for six weeks," DeSantis' office said in a statement. "Especially not for a virus that has a 98% survival rate."

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 08, 2021, 01:03:16 PM
My step son just left this AM to return to SF.  He says everything there is shut down which is one reason he came to visit here.  I don't view a complete shut down as a viable solution to much of anything, it causes other problems clearly, and the impact on the spread is a positive, but it just comes back later.  I'm reading that CA hospitals are being overrun now.  I don't hear that is the case around here (yet).

My thought on a shut down was to provide some time to prevent that from happening until we could get the vaccine widely distributed.

He told me that many restaurants in SF spent a lot of money to set up for outside dining and then that was curtailed as well, and what's worse, they now are getting fined because the homeless sleep in their outside fining areas and create trash, so they get fined for that (the restaurants).

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 08, 2021, 01:16:51 PM
saw some real crappy stuff on the news last night about hospitals over run in Cali.

As you know, I'm not a fan of lock downs, but when the hospitals are over run, there's a need to reduce the spread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 08, 2021, 01:18:37 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 08, 2021, 01:03:16 PM
My step son just left this AM to return to SF.  He says everything there is shut down which is one reason he came to visit here.  I don't view a complete shut down as a viable solution to much of anything, it causes other problems clearly, and the impact on the spread is a positive, but it just comes back later.  I'm reading that CA hospitals are being overrun now.  I don't hear that is the case around here (yet).

My thought on a shut down was to provide some time to prevent that from happening until we could get the vaccine widely distributed.

He told me that many restaurants in SF spent a lot of money to set up for outside dining and then that was curtailed as well, and what's worse, they now are getting fined because the homeless sleep in their outside fining areas and create trash, so they get fined for that (the restaurants).


But, California is on lockdown!!

(https://i.imgur.com/KoJf03x.png)

Meanwhile, in Florida:


(https://i.imgur.com/EQCL1of.png)
Thanks Ron.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on January 08, 2021, 01:18:51 PM
Well, I was one of those who never get the flu shot, since I have never had the flu.  But as life turns out I just got the flu shot and will be getting the covid vaccine when it is available to me. Found out last week that my 2 week old granddaughter has cystic fibrosis, so I got the flu shot, got a TDAP booster and waiting on the covid vaccine.  

As I have stated many times, while I don't believe that the "overall" danger of covid is worth worrying about and that those who have co-morbidities should self-isolate rather than shut down the country.  So while I have kept my distance from my 80yo mother with immunity issues (Masked, meet outside while she is in her garage), I needed to hold that little doll baby, so I bit the bullet and will continue to bite it in the future. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on January 08, 2021, 01:19:50 PM
MIL gets her shot today in Michigan.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 08, 2021, 01:21:23 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 08, 2021, 01:16:51 PM
saw some real crappy stuff on the news last night about hospitals over run in Cali.

As you know, I'm not a fan of lock downs, but when the hospitals are over run, there's a need to reduce the spread.
Much of California has been on lockdown for over a month. Keeping restaurants closed isn't helping. People gathering is causing this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 08, 2021, 01:24:26 PM
the problem with co-morbidities is when a person is unaware they have them

this happened to my 54 year old friend, who had no idea he had leukemia 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 08, 2021, 01:25:29 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 08, 2021, 01:21:23 PM
Much of California has been on lockdown for over a month. Keeping restaurants closed isn't helping. People gathering is causing this.
are they shutting off people's water and other utilities to discourage gathering?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 08, 2021, 01:31:23 PM
They threaten to do that, but reality is government simply cannot know when folks get together very often.

My step son tells me that it's rife, people are frustrated and taking matters into their own hands and having large dinner parties and informal bars.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 08, 2021, 02:59:59 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/joGj43g.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 08, 2021, 03:38:22 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on January 08, 2021, 01:18:51 PM
Well, I was one of those who never get the flu shot, since I have never had the flu.  But as life turns out I just got the flu shot and will be getting the covid vaccine when it is available to me. Found out last week that my 2 week old granddaughter has cystic fibrosis, so I got the flu shot, got a TDAP booster and waiting on the covid vaccine. 

As I have stated many times, while I don't believe that the "overall" danger of covid is worth worrying about and that those who have co-morbidities should self-isolate rather than shut down the country.  So while I have kept my distance from my 80yo mother with immunity issues (Masked, meet outside while she is in her garage), I needed to hold that little doll baby, so I bit the bullet and will continue to bite it in the future.
Well done!  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 08, 2021, 04:31:25 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 08, 2021, 01:31:23 PM
They threaten to do that, but reality is government simply cannot know when folks get together very often.

My step son tells me that it's rife, people are frustrated and taking matters into their own hands and having large dinner parties and informal bars.
Yep. It's not even about bars or restaurants. Certainly not about hair salons and nail joints. 

It's just widespread disobedience of Newsom's diktats. 

To be honest, last weekend my wife and I went to a brewery and today we're going to our wine bar. I honestly don't feel it's unsafe, because it's outside, it's just the two of us, and so although we're in "public" we'll be distanced and any time we're not at our own table we're wearing masks. These businesses, according to Newsom's rules, are closed. Not in OC. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 08, 2021, 04:38:22 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on January 08, 2021, 04:31:25 PM
Yep. It's not even about bars or restaurants. Certainly not about hair salons and nail joints.

It's just widespread disobedience of Newsom's diktats.

To be honest, last weekend my wife and I went to a brewery and today we're going to our wine bar. I honestly don't feel it's unsafe, because it's outside, it's just the two of us, and so although we're in "public" we'll be distanced and any time we're not at our own table we're wearing masks. These businesses, according to Newsom's rules, are closed. Not in OC.

It's like anything else. You tell someone that they can't do it, and they are more inclined to do it.

Here, you can do anything, but most people are doing the right thing - including the businesses who are happy to be open. Most places are operating at 50 percent - by CHOICE.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on January 08, 2021, 10:34:35 PM
My BIL had dose #2 this week, so far mild lethargy.   Otherwise feels fine.  My wife's second dose coming up later in Jan..  Interestingly he had Pfizer, wife w Moderna.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 09, 2021, 08:05:55 AM
Well I tested negative so that’s good.  

My symptoms were minor (occasional light chills/aches) so it must have been  a flu bug.  

So that’s twice for me- tested negative in August as well( more because the Mrs. was very ill)

Still wearing a mask, staying out of all avoidable public, and hand washing relentlessly.  Still working from home.   So..  we just keep going....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 09, 2021, 08:30:02 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on January 09, 2021, 08:05:55 AM
Well I tested negative so that’s good. 

My symptoms were minor (occasional light chills/aches) so it must have been  a flu bug. 

So that’s twice for me- tested negative in August as well( more because the Mrs. was very ill)

Still wearing a mask, staying out of all avoidable public, and hand washing relentlessly.  Still working from home.  So..  we just keep going....
good news
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on January 09, 2021, 09:27:56 AM
More news from across the pond, the variant raging in UK/Ireland:

https://twitter.com/DrTomFrieden/status/1347632923944611843
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 09, 2021, 09:36:30 AM
I think in March folks generally were more receptive to a "shut down" to broaden the curve.  It could have been better explained, but most accepted it, as a SHORT TERM measure.  The idea we could keep major parts of the economy shut down for months and months isn't realistic in my view.  Folks start to rebel because they get bored.

And of course millions are out of their job.  Ironically, folks like me who would be spending money would have no place to spend it (Amazon aside).  So we pile up money we can't use and folks out of a job are in a major hurt.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 09, 2021, 10:41:09 AM
False reports of a new ‘U.S. variant’ of the coronavirus came from White House task force - Chicago Tribune (https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-nyt-covid-us-variant-20210109-efsybk2tnfcgzdzfp4dygrqmue-story.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 09, 2021, 03:15:58 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/Xg6aooW.png)

Wisconsin not available today. Technical difficulties.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 09, 2021, 03:19:08 PM
let's get to 5%

Everywhere, not just Florida
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 09, 2021, 03:21:49 PM
My step daughter living in Marseille went to be tested and was shocked when told she was a positive for COVID.  So, she got retested at another site and was negative.  She went back to the first site and was negative there.  They said they thought they had a bad batch of PCR ingredients.

Great.  She went with two others and they were all pos, then neg, then neg.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 09, 2021, 03:32:38 PM
so, perhaps Badger is correct.  We've all had it twice
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 09, 2021, 04:17:53 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 09, 2021, 03:19:08 PM
let's get to 5%

Everywhere, not just Florida
This UK variant is much more contagious, and it's now prevalent in Florida. I imagine mostly on the Atlantic side, since that's where Europe goes in the Winter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 09, 2021, 04:45:30 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 09, 2021, 04:17:53 PM
This UK variant is much more contagious, and it's now prevalent in Florida. I imagine mostly on the Atlantic side, since that's where Europe goes in the Winter.
Yes.  😕
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 09, 2021, 04:47:06 PM
hopefully the vaccine is effective vs the new variant
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 09, 2021, 05:12:55 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 09, 2021, 04:47:06 PM
hopefully the vaccine is effective vs the new variant
they were supposed to get back to us on that but so far crickets
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 09, 2021, 05:13:39 PM
UK says it works. Florida DOH thinks so too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 09, 2021, 05:27:28 PM
Wife got her shot. Still alive. Bit of a sore arm but no other side effects beyond her own anxiety. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on January 09, 2021, 07:51:45 PM
Predictably bored w my self quarantine.   I decided to drive Terre Haute, had never been.  Took rural roads, saw some interesting sights, covered bridges, a really old cool looking diner, which ill have to try another day, and then saw two sheriff deputies chasing and apprehending a guy trying to elude them on foot in the edge of a soybean field.  Don't see that everyday. Who knew Brazil IN was such a happening small town. Meanwhile,  Indiana has some really cool county courthouses.  

Terre Haute was larger than I expected.   Just overhauled the Sycamores arena (Hulman).  Saw the Larry Bird statue and ISU campus which is downtown.   Separately, Rose-Hulman is a pretty campus on the NE edge of town.    Checked out the Clabber Girl Factory,  which I have some reclaimed wood in my house from this factory.    All without getting anywhere near anybody.  Felt good driving 200miles 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 10, 2021, 08:41:52 AM
We enjoy "driving around" and visiting smaller towns.  It takes us a while to get out of Atlanta metro of course.  It's an hour in any direction to be in the Sticks.  There are myriad smaller towns, county seats etc. I've never seen, might have taken a bypass around them of course.

It can be fun to get a B&B somewhere small townish and just walk around, but that is probably going to be post-vaccination.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 10, 2021, 08:59:37 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 09, 2021, 03:21:49 PM
My step daughter living in Marseille went to be tested and was shocked when told she was a positive for COVID.  So, she got retested at another site and was negative.  She went back to the first site and was negative there.  They said they thought they had a bad batch of PCR ingredients.

Great.  She went with two others and they were all pos, then neg, then neg.
Two other friends or two other sites?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on January 10, 2021, 11:24:16 AM
Looking through the numbers and graphs today. Below I've posted the UK Daily New Case Graph indicating the sharp increase in cases since November, and these numbers are rising and that's WHILE Britain has remained in lockdown. Britain is an example for what's also occurring in California, Germany, Japan, Russia...mankind is losing; the virus is winning, sharply rising despite the individual precautions and economic shutdowns.

For another example, take Germany (total deaths graph posted below). Through October many experts praised Germany's proactiveness and national health initiatives in keeping cases and deaths at low levels in proportion to their population. Through October Germany's population of 84 million had recorded under 10K deaths through mid-October compared to the US's population of 330 million recorded about 215K deaths through the same date. Now look at Germany's sharp rise in deaths.

In looking at all this, and given the inevitable mutations, did our experts severely underestimate what we're up against??? Despite all our efforts to mask up, socially distance, close our economies, shelter in place, unveiling a vaccine, etc - 10 months later we're LOSING worse than ever.

Mankind is used to controlling everything save for the weather. Are we learning too late that COVID is a force of nature as severe as a Hurricane? For example, our wearing of masks and distancing against COVID is akin to boarding our windows against a Hurricane? If wisely wearing a mask is no better than boarding your windows against a Hurricane, our house, so to speak, was never going to withstand the direct hit COVID has us under?






(https://i.imgur.com/5d3e0Hg.png)



(https://i.imgur.com/iZXPVqh.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 10, 2021, 11:31:24 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on January 10, 2021, 08:59:37 AM
Two other friends or two other sites?
She went with two friends at the same time to Site One, then Site Two, then Site One again.  Pos Neg Neg.

She was quite annoyed because they were cavalier about the apparent false positive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 10, 2021, 11:35:49 AM
Most hurricane damage of course is due to water, not wind, but the analogy may be apt.  The steps we've taken have been largely sparingly effective, or giving only temporary relief.

France shut down recently and it did have an impact on new cases, but they are trending up again.  If we can keep hospitals functional, it's the best we can do until the vaccine is out there in numbers.  I see about 5 million in the US has had the first shot, which is thought to be 50-60% effective.

I don't know how many have immunity from getting it.  We have 23 million listed as having had it.  The true figure might be 100 million or so, probably less.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on January 10, 2021, 12:00:29 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 08, 2021, 04:38:22 PM
It's like anything else. You tell someone that they can't do it, and they are more inclined to do it.

Here, you can do anything, but most people are doing the right thing - including the businesses who are happy to be open. Most places are operating at 50 percent - by CHOICE.
Well, Badge, extend that logic not very much and where are you?  We can't have any rules because that would just encourage people to break them?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on January 10, 2021, 12:05:59 PM
My esposita and I got negative results yesterday morning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 10, 2021, 12:53:02 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on January 10, 2021, 12:00:29 PM
Well, Badge, extend that logic not very much and where are you?  We can't have any rules because that would just encourage people to break them?
I think most people obey the "rules" or laws. A lockdown is not a rule. It's a mandate.

People don't like mandates - especially a mandate from those who don't follow their own mandates.

I'm in Florida. No mandates here, but people are generally following the guidelines. I'd say 75-80% compliance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on January 10, 2021, 12:54:12 PM
Elected leaders who violate their own mandates are just begging for popular resistance to them, that's for sure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 10, 2021, 08:40:24 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 10, 2021, 12:53:02 PM
I think most people obey the "rules" or laws. A lockdown is not a rule. It's a mandate.

People don't like mandates - especially a mandate from those who don't follow their own mandates.

I'm in Florida. No mandates here, but people are generally following the guidelines. I'd say 75-80% compliance.
What people do when others can see and what they do in private or trusted company are basically near-opposites.  
I read you say "most people obey the rules" and I immediately think "most people think they're the exception."  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 10, 2021, 08:41:01 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on January 10, 2021, 12:54:12 PM
Elected leaders who violate their own mandates are just begging for popular resistance to them, that's for sure.
Ruh roh, Raggie.  Getting all political is a no-no.  Believe me, I know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 10, 2021, 08:42:06 PM
As a member of the 1b group in AZ, I was able to schedule my vaccination for the end of January this evening.  

The fun part will be not changing my behavior as I wait for the masses to get their vaccines.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 10, 2021, 09:02:28 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 10, 2021, 08:42:06 PM
As a member of the 1b group in AZ, I was able to schedule my vaccination for the end of January this evening. 

The fun part will be not changing my behavior as I wait for the masses to get their vaccines. 
ok I gotta ask

are you receiving the vaccine because you are a teacher

I didnt realize teachers were considered that high on priority

not saying I disagree just that I thought the priority list didnt rank teachers that high
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 11, 2021, 10:02:04 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 10, 2021, 08:40:24 PM
What people do when others can see and what they do in private or trusted company are basically near-opposites. 
I read you say "most people obey the rules" and I immediately think "most people think they're the exception." 
I'm an optimist. You are not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on January 11, 2021, 10:25:13 AM
TMZ, of all places, with a very point to point account of the unfortunate COVID death of a Beverly Hills Plastic surgeon:

"While the doc was hovering over the maskless woman, our sources say she coughed in his face. He had his mask on... She contacted the office a few days later to inform them she had tested positive for COVID.

Dr. Simoni then went into quarantine and began experiencing symptoms -- shortness of breath, etc -- and in short order, he was on a ventilator at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center. We're told Dr. Simoni was eventually placed in a medically induced coma as his lungs started failing. He died Friday from a brain hemorrhage."


https://www.tmz.com/2021/01/10/beverly-hills-plastic-surgeon-dies-covid-patient-cough/

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 11, 2021, 10:46:22 AM
This is such a strange virus, the way it can affect one person so much more significantly than another, even when other health issues are seemingly equal, or even  better, for an affected person.

My 81-year-old FIL with diabetes and major obesity, had very mild symptoms.  Other people that you'd think would fare better, suffer greatly.  Makes it even more difficult to treat.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 11, 2021, 10:50:39 AM
The cytokine explosion thing is fascinating to me.  Apparently it can be started by an overly aggressive immune system.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 11, 2021, 10:56:53 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 11, 2021, 10:46:22 AM
This is such a strange virus, the way it can affect one person so much more significantly than another, even when other health issues are seemingly equal, or even  better, for an affected person.

My 81-year-old FIL with diabetes and major obesity, had very mild symptoms.  Other people that you'd think would fare better, suffer greatly.  Makes it even more difficult to treat.

My 70 y/o financial advisor sailed right through. Only a sore throat. Never hospitalized.

My 70 y/o former neighbor is in the ICU with Covid pneumonia right now. Being treated with steroids and remdisivir. It's working, but he'll be in the ICE for at least 10 days. No vent.

Neither had any comorbidities, other than age.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on January 11, 2021, 11:13:00 AM
Well my blood test came back this week.  I do have the antibodies, so I guess I really did have covid.  Weird that nobody in my house got sick, or at least showed any symptoms.  

Now the question is do I need the vaccine, and if so, why?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 11, 2021, 11:16:20 AM
Quote from: Gigem on January 11, 2021, 11:13:00 AM
Now the question is do I need the vaccine, and if so, why? 
You might need it for the paperwork to travel on an airline etc. and get in some countries.  AS for medical need, I don't know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 11, 2021, 11:35:38 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 11, 2021, 10:46:22 AM
This is such a strange virus, the way it can affect one person so much more significantly than another, even when other health issues are seemingly equal, or even  better, for an affected person.

My 81-year-old FIL with diabetes and major obesity, had very mild symptoms.  Other people that you'd think would fare better, suffer greatly.  Makes it even more difficult to treat.

Agreed.  That’s what makes it scary.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 11, 2021, 01:18:48 PM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on January 10, 2021, 11:24:16 AM
In looking at all this, and given the inevitable mutations, did our experts severely underestimate what we're up against??? Despite all our efforts to mask up, socially distance, close our economies, shelter in place, unveiling a vaccine, etc - 10 months later we're LOSING worse than ever.

IMHO the mutations are another argument against the natural herd immunity strategies that folks were espousing. 

Viruses are going to mutate. That's what they do. However mutations are a numbers game--the more hosts you have, the more spread you have, the more likely it is that you'll see mutations that are positive [for the virus] adaptations which then spread. 

So now we seem to have something so transmissible that it's defeating the mitigation efforts that might have contained less transmissible versions. 

I'll be getting the vaccine as soon as it's available to me. I have no desire to wait any longer than I have to at this point.

BTW my wife had no additional side effects from her first dose [Moderna] beyond pretty severe soreness of her arm. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 11, 2021, 01:33:58 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on January 11, 2021, 01:18:48 PM
IMHO the mutations are another argument against the natural herd immunity strategies that folks were espousing.

Viruses are going to mutate. That's what they do. However mutations are a numbers game--the more hosts you have, the more spread you have, the more likely it is that you'll see mutations that are positive [for the virus] adaptations which then spread.

So now we seem to have something so transmissible that it's defeating the mitigation efforts that might have contained less transmissible versions.

I'll be getting the vaccine as soon as it's available to me. I have no desire to wait any longer than I have to at this point.

BTW my wife had no additional side effects from her first dose [Moderna] beyond pretty severe soreness of her arm.
Can't speak for anyone else, but I was only commenting on natural herd immunity as the ultimate strategy because I didn't believe effective vaccines could be deployed in time.

And I'm still skeptical as to whether or not the vaccines that have been developed will be effective across the entire global population, and against all mutations of the virus currently existing, and the strains that will likely evolve in the future.

I might be wrong about that-- I certainly hope I'm wrong about that-- but it doesn't change the fact that right now we're about 5 minutes into the first quarter of this battle against the virus and we have no idea how the next 55 minutes are going to unfold.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 11, 2021, 01:36:53 PM
we can always hope the vaccines developed by the Chinese, Russians, and others might be effective

more than just 3 or 4 vaccines out there

might take 5 or 6 to do the job
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 11, 2021, 01:45:52 PM
The Chinese and Russians.

You're stirring the pot again, aren't you?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 11, 2021, 01:57:50 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 11, 2021, 01:33:58 PM
Can't speak for anyone else, but I was only commenting on natural herd immunity as the ultimate strategy because I didn't believe effective vaccines could be deployed in time.

And I'm still skeptical as to whether or not the vaccines that have been developed will be effective across the entire global population, and against all mutations of the virus currently existing, and the strains that will likely evolve in the future.

I might be wrong about that-- I certainly hope I'm wrong about that-- but it doesn't change the fact that right now we're about 5 minutes into the first quarter of this battle against the virus and we have no idea how the next 55 minutes are going to unfold.

I was thinking more of the people like the Great Barrington Declaration (https://gbdeclaration.org/).

IMHO the "well we're just all gonna have to get the disease" of course made sense if we'd never have an effective vaccine, but for reasons I've talked about at length here I think the death toll of this "focused protection" would be staggering, and that natural herd immunity is worst-case scenario.

But even then I hadn't really considered the mutation portion. I was considering the COVID we knew, and not really contemplating the fact that every virus host is a potential mutation site and spreader, and that we could end up trying to create vaccines for a moving target because the virus might be mutating 1-2 steps ahead of our ability to create the vaccines. 

It's why reducing spread is even more important than I'd originally thought. "Let all the young healthy people get it and be immune!" is a terrible strategy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 11, 2021, 02:06:26 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 11, 2021, 01:45:52 PM
The Chinese and Russians.

You're stirring the pot again, aren't you?
I might not be as eager to roll up my sleeve for those shots

but, In those countries eagerness isn't a consideration
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 11, 2021, 02:20:49 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on January 11, 2021, 01:57:50 PM
I was thinking more of the people like the Great Barrington Declaration (https://gbdeclaration.org/).

IMHO the "well we're just all gonna have to get the disease" of course made sense if we'd never have an effective vaccine, but for reasons I've talked about at length here I think the death toll of this "focused protection" would be staggering, and that natural herd immunity is worst-case scenario.

But even then I hadn't really considered the mutation portion. I was considering the COVID we knew, and not really contemplating the fact that every virus host is a potential mutation site and spreader, and that we could end up trying to create vaccines for a moving target because the virus might be mutating 1-2 steps ahead of our ability to create the vaccines.

It's why reducing spread is even more important than I'd originally thought. "Let all the young healthy people get it and be immune!" is a terrible strategy.

And this is precisely why I have continued to maintain that I don't believe we'll create an effective vaccine.  But again, I certainly hope I'm wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 11, 2021, 02:39:36 PM
New coronavirus variants aren't cause for alarm yet, but mutations could make COVID-19 harder to fight, experts say (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/new-coronavirus-variants-aren-t-cause-for-alarm-yet-but-mutations-could-make-covid-19-harder-to-fight-experts-say/ar-BB1cBzcN?ocid=msedgntp)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 11, 2021, 03:37:12 PM
Hopefully the 7 day average in Wisconsin is levelling off and will go back down again.


(https://i.imgur.com/IJM1tPR.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 11, 2021, 03:38:22 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/SsEfsot.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 11, 2021, 03:39:29 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/ufsfxHe.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 11, 2021, 04:39:29 PM
New figures from the Iowa Department of Public Health show that 91,501 Iowans have now received the first of two doses of COVID-19 vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 11, 2021, 05:18:18 PM
School says there was a positive test result in "an individual in our upper grades"...

...and they've now gone back to distance learning for everyone in grades 4-8 for the next two weeks. 

Luckily the only days I have the kids next week are Mon/Tues, and they're off Mon for MLK. But that's annoying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 11, 2021, 05:57:50 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on January 11, 2021, 05:18:18 PM
School says there was a positive test result in "an individual in our upper grades"...

...and they've now gone back to distance learning for everyone in grades 4-8 for the next two weeks.

Luckily the only days I have the kids next week are Mon/Tues, and they're off Mon for MLK. But that's annoying.

That seems odd, are they all in one room or something?  Our schools contact-trace to anyone that was in the same classroom.  just being in the same school building isn't a direct contact.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 11, 2021, 06:32:16 PM
I don't know. Obviously with HIPAA they're not exactly throwing out enough information that we could identify who it is. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 11, 2021, 06:51:55 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on January 11, 2021, 06:32:16 PM
I don't know. Obviously with HIPAA they're not exactly throwing out enough information that we could identify who it is.
But do they have all grade levels in the same room?  If not, then their actions are... extreme.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 11, 2021, 06:56:27 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 11, 2021, 06:51:55 PM
But do they have all grade levels in the same room?  If not, then their actions are... extreme.
No, not all grade levels in the same room. And the middle school (6/7/8) are on periods while the 4/5 graders are all with a single teacher. 

I'm very confused by the whole thing. Just hopeful it only lasts the two weeks because it'll be annoying to have to take his sister to that school, his brother to another school, and then have him milling around the house distance learning before having to go pick both of them up. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 11, 2021, 07:23:02 PM
They better not be erring on the side of caution!  Over my dead body!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 11, 2021, 10:36:34 PM
yes, because there's been so many dead bodies
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on January 11, 2021, 11:46:38 PM
We extended Christmas break a week, which could have made sense.  But we resumed school today and it's face-to-face for the first time since Thanksgiving break.  Next week we'll be virtual.  The following week will be face-to-face again.  Nobody can explain the logic of it.

There is no logic that I can see.  It smells like a lowest-common-denominator committee decision.  There's a majority faction on the school board whose inclination is that school should be open and masks should be optional.  The week of virtual, nonsensically placed as it will be, is probably all they'll agree to right now.

Right now Oklahoma has the highest positivity rate in the USA, and we're having 30-40 deaths a day.  Numbers are going up, not down.  COVID ICU patients are being sent out of state.

In public education, we always claim that our decision-making is data-based.  That's what we claim.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 12, 2021, 10:33:32 AM
BioNTech says Covid vaccine is effective against key new strains; to publish more data in days (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/biontech-says-covid-vaccine-is-effective-against-key-new-strains-to-publish-more-data-in-days/ar-BB1cEBnS?ocid=msedgntp)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 12, 2021, 10:38:23 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 12, 2021, 10:33:32 AM
BioNTech says Covid vaccine is effective against key new strains; to publish more data in days (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/biontech-says-covid-vaccine-is-effective-against-key-new-strains-to-publish-more-data-in-days/ar-BB1cEBnS?ocid=msedgntp)

good news
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 12, 2021, 10:53:02 AM
Yup, sure hope it works out to be true for the long term.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on January 12, 2021, 11:38:19 AM
For the daily deaths count, does anyone have an explanation for how, in nearly weekly intervals, there's a 2 or 3 day low count before a four to five day high count? Probably something to do with the way deaths are recorded less aggressively over the weekend? And maybe moved over to the weekdays count?


(https://i.imgur.com/HNMcOgi.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 12, 2021, 12:32:42 PM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on January 12, 2021, 11:38:19 AM
For the daily deaths count, does anyone have an explanation for how, in nearly weekly intervals, there's a 2 or 3 day low count before a four to five day high count? Probably something to do with the way deaths are recorded less aggressively over the weekend? And maybe moved over to the weekdays count?


(https://i.imgur.com/HNMcOgi.png)

I can't speak for aggregated USA totals, but that's certainly the way it works in the Austin area.  Saturday-Monday counts are low, and Tuesday is the "catch-up" day.  That's been true since last Spring for cases, hospitalizations, and death counts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 12, 2021, 01:05:41 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 12, 2021, 12:32:42 PM
I can't speak for aggregated USA totals, but that's certainly the way it works in the Austin area.  Saturday-Monday counts are low, and Tuesday is the "catch-up" day.  That's been true since last Spring for cases, hospitalizations, and death counts.
yep some counties in Texas completely shut down over the weekend
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 12, 2021, 02:04:37 PM
Nearly 90 percent of Sioux City School District employees plan to take the vaccine for the novel coronavirus, and that vaccine could be available as soon as the last week of January, Superintendent Paul Gausman said Monday.

Speaking in the Sioux City School Board meeting, Gausman said he's had discussions with the Siouxland District Health Department, who will ultimately set vaccine plan details.

Gausman said the next batch of vaccines in the county will likely be available to district employees by the last week in January or the first week in February, based on what he's heard from Siouxland District Health officials. As of Monday, Gausman said a survey of the district's 2,500 teachers, administrators, bus drivers, food service workers and other support personnel showed 88 percent said they'd take the vaccine.

He said the vaccine doses will likely be administered at the three high schools. In response to a question from board member Dan Greenwell, Gausman confirmed the district is not planning to vaccinate the 14,800 pupils.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 12, 2021, 04:03:44 PM
Immunological characteristics govern the transition of COVID-19 to endemicity | Science (sciencemag.org) (https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/01/11/science.abe6522)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 13, 2021, 08:36:34 AM
Japan expanded a coronavirus state of emergency to seven more prefectures Wednesday, affecting more than half the population amid a surge in infections across the country.

Prime Minister Yoshide Suga also said Japan will suspend fast-track entry exceptions for business visitors or others with residency permits, fully banning foreign visitors while the state of emergency is in place.

Suga’s announcement comes less than a week after he declared a state of emergency for Tokyo and three nearby prefectures. The new declaration, which adds seven other prefectures in western and central Japan, takes effect Thursday and lasts until Feb. 7.

“The severe situation is continuing, but these measures are indispensable in turning the tide for the better,” Suga said at a news conference, bowing as he sought understanding from the public.

He said he put the seven prefectures in urban areas under the state of emergency to prevent infections from spilling over into smaller cities where medical systems are more vulnerable.

The government is asking bars and restaurants in Osaka, Kyoto, Hyogo, Fukuoka, Aichi, Gifu and Tochigi prefectures to close by 8 p.m., employers to have 70% of their staff work from home and residents in the affected areas avoid going out for nonessential purposes.


Suga has been criticized as being to slow to act as the country’s reported coronavirus infections and deaths roughly doubled over the past month to about 300,000 and 4,100 respectively. Both states of emergency were declared only after local leaders pleaded with him to do so.

Experts have warned that even the emergency declarations, which are nonbinding and largely rely on voluntary cooperation, may be insufficient to significantly slow the infections.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 13, 2021, 09:11:24 AM
Fearless when you post something like the above you need to give a source

so we can argue with you about it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 13, 2021, 09:27:06 AM
I thought those japanese folks all wore masks and lived on an isolated island and didn't have issues with the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 13, 2021, 10:13:17 AM
Researchers in Ohio said Wednesday that they’ve discovered two new variants of the coronavirus that likely originated in the U.S. — one of which quickly became the dominant strain in Columbus, Ohio over a three-week period in late December and January.

Like strain first detected in the U.K., the U.S. mutations appear to make Covid-19 more contagious but do not seem like they will diminish the effectiveness of the vaccine, researchers said.

The Ohio State University researchers have not yet published their full findings, but said a non-peer-reviewed study is forthcoming. They said in a press release that the new variant has three gene mutations “not previously seen together in” the coronavirus.

One of the new strains, found in just one patient in Ohio, contains a mutation identical to the now-dominant variant in the U.K., researchers said, noting that it “likely arose in a virus strain already present in the United States.” However, the “Columbus strain” includes “three other gene mutations not previously seen together in SARS-CoV2.”


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/13/ohio-researchers-say-theyve-identified-two-new-covid-strains-likely-originating-in-the-us.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/13/ohio-researchers-say-theyve-identified-two-new-covid-strains-likely-originating-in-the-us.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 13, 2021, 10:31:14 AM
Thank You
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 13, 2021, 11:25:55 AM
do you really think I'd just paste the parts of the article that shared my viewpoint?

many times I post the link because I don't want to paste the entire article
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 13, 2021, 12:04:55 PM
Whose idea was it to get as many people the initial shot, at the expense of the follow-up booster?  Whoever it was, they're an idiot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 13, 2021, 12:20:32 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 13, 2021, 12:04:55 PM
Whose idea was it to get as many people the initial shot, at the expense of the follow-up booster?  Whoever it was, they're an idiot.
Has this happened?  News to me.

source
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 13, 2021, 12:23:43 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 13, 2021, 11:25:55 AM
do you really think I'd just paste the parts of the article that shared my viewpoint?

many times I post the link because I don't want to paste the entire article
should always post the source of your post if they arent your words

In fact it can be considered a copyright violation

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 13, 2021, 12:25:59 PM
that's probably not going to be my first, last, or worse violation
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 13, 2021, 12:28:57 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 13, 2021, 12:20:32 PM
Has this happened?  News to me.

source
I did find this


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/01/08/covid-biden-plans-release-all-vaccines-not-hold-second-dose/6596334002/


Is this what youre referring to?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 13, 2021, 12:29:28 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 13, 2021, 12:25:59 PM
that's probably not going to be my first, last, or worse violation
I'll save a place in hell for ya
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 13, 2021, 12:56:23 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 13, 2021, 12:20:32 PM
Has this happened?  News to me.

source
You're asking for a source when my post asks for a source......

~???
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 13, 2021, 01:17:08 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 13, 2021, 12:29:28 PM
I'll save a place in hell for ya
I'm not moving to Houston
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 13, 2021, 01:25:23 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 13, 2021, 12:56:23 PM
You're asking for a source when my post asks for a source......

~???
Your post was not asking for a source

Your post was making a statement


Whose idea was it to get as many people the initial shot, at the expense of the follow-up booster?  Whoever it was, they're an idiot.


obviously I was asking you to tell us why you think this is happening what was the source for your belief that this was happening

now please excuse me while I treat my head for a mild concussion from hitting it against the wall
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 13, 2021, 01:27:00 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 13, 2021, 01:17:08 PM
I'm not moving to Houston
nope no place in Houston for you yanks 

dont move here
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 13, 2021, 01:28:55 PM
My inquiry was for the source of the idea.  I heard that idea from somewhere, some outlet recently, and I don't know which one.  The source would be the originator of the idea (which I explicitly don't know) or the outlet that I heard it from (which I implicitly don't know).


But please, by all means, keep banging your head....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 13, 2021, 01:33:17 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 13, 2021, 12:28:57 PM
I did find this


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/01/08/covid-biden-plans-release-all-vaccines-not-hold-second-dose/6596334002/


Is this what youre referring to?
USA Today is a good source.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 13, 2021, 01:33:29 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 13, 2021, 01:28:55 PM
My inquiry was for the source of the idea.  I heard that idea from somewhere, some outlet recently, and I don't know which one.  The source would be the originator of the idea (which I explicitly don't know) or the outlet that I heard it from (which I implicitly don't know).


But please, by all means, keep banging your head....
nope that answers my question

head banging no longer needed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 13, 2021, 01:34:34 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 13, 2021, 01:33:17 PM
USA Today is a good source.
not really but I didnt search a lot

just trying to help OAM out
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 13, 2021, 01:43:07 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 13, 2021, 01:28:55 PM
My inquiry was for the source of the idea.  I heard that idea from somewhere, some outlet recently, and I don't know which one.  The source would be the originator of the idea (which I explicitly don't know) or the outlet that I heard it from (which I implicitly don't know).


But please, by all means, keep banging your head....

I believe he's asking, simply, where you heard it. Where did you hear that someone-- anyone-- had suggested this, or was pursuing this, as a course of action?

Because I hadn't heard anything like that, and I'm assuming he hadn't either.  I know several people that have had the first dose, and a couple that have had the second, and hadn't heard anything about any second doses being missed due to supporting first doses instead.

Well, that is, I hadn't heard anything about it, until this...


Quote from: longhorn320 on January 13, 2021, 12:28:57 PM
I did find this


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/01/08/covid-biden-plans-release-all-vaccines-not-hold-second-dose/6596334002/


Is this what youre referring to?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 13, 2021, 04:06:21 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 13, 2021, 12:04:55 PM
Whose idea was it to get as many people the initial shot, at the expense of the follow-up booster?  Whoever it was, they're an idiot.
Tread lightly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 13, 2021, 04:09:00 PM
I'm guessing there is a solid plan to get the follow up shot to everyone that got the 1st shot.

well, at least as solid of plan as the original plan that isn't getting the vaccine out as quickly as hoped
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 13, 2021, 04:49:55 PM
The plan is still evolving. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 13, 2021, 05:40:46 PM
All sorts of problems with the plan. 

Each state has a different plan. That in itself doesn't bother me. But here in CA, the plan was that the first shots need to go to front-line health care workers first. And... Some of them don't want it. So now they're trying to figure out how to accelerate distribution to the people who DO want it, moving ahead in phases before they originally planned to give them to those groups.

My wife has calls DAILY from patients asking when they're going to get the shot and how people can get on "the list" to get it as soon as it shows up... Yet some health care workers don't even want theirs. She's trying to acquire shots for their office so that they can start getting their [many] elderly patients started. 

As far as I'm concerned, if anyone has a shot that isn't being used, let me know. I'll take it ASAP. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 13, 2021, 05:43:09 PM
Met one of my dog-walking neighbors this morning and she was wearing a mask, and said she's tested positive. She's a decent bit older than me I think (maybe early-mid 50s?), and overweight. Thankfully no symptoms (hence why she was still taking the dog for a walk). 

Jake did not understand why he was required to socially distance lol...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 13, 2021, 06:08:55 PM
Poor dogs, bearing the brunt of our human frailty. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 13, 2021, 06:15:12 PM
WE don't deserve dogs, they are too good for us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 13, 2021, 06:16:29 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 13, 2021, 12:25:59 PM
that's probably not going to be my last, or worse violation
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 13, 2021, 12:29:28 PM
I'll save a place in hell for ya
He'll be so busy shaking hands with all his friends he'll never notice
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 13, 2021, 06:19:26 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 13, 2021, 06:15:12 PM
WE don't deserve dogs, they are too good for us.
Heaven goes by favor. If it went by merit, you would stay out and your dog would go in.- Mark Twain
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 14, 2021, 07:43:17 AM
My main business partner has it now. No symptoms after one day of headache. He's 60.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 14, 2021, 08:43:13 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on January 13, 2021, 05:40:46 PM
All sorts of problems with the plan.

Each state has a different plan. That in itself doesn't bother me. But here in CA, the plan was that the first shots need to go to front-line health care workers first. And... Some of them don't want it. So now they're trying to figure out how to accelerate distribution to the people who DO want it, moving ahead in phases before they originally planned to give them to those groups.

My wife has calls DAILY from patients asking when they're going to get the shot and how people can get on "the list" to get it as soon as it shows up... Yet some health care workers don't even want theirs. She's trying to acquire shots for their office so that they can start getting their [many] elderly patients started.

As far as I'm concerned, if anyone has a shot that isn't being used, let me know. I'll take it ASAP.
Gave this some thought.

Those who choose to not get the shot also choose to not work in healthcare any longer, choose to not ever board an airplane, and also choose to quarantine until this thing is eradicated.

Seems fair.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 14, 2021, 09:05:36 AM
Sounds pretty Orwellian to me.  Double plus ungood.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 14, 2021, 09:15:05 AM
Drastic times, amigo.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 14, 2021, 09:21:39 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 14, 2021, 09:15:05 AM
Drastic times, amigo.
Said every authoritarian, ever.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 14, 2021, 09:23:43 AM
How does this get solved? I mean, we're at major risk here if the numbers of anti-vax are too high.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 14, 2021, 09:25:18 AM
Let those who want to get vaccinated, do so.  Then they're immune from the anti-vaxers right?

In theory at least.  If the vaccine(s) are actually effective over time against a mutating virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 14, 2021, 09:26:00 AM
I wonder what the real number is of folks who really won't take the vaccine.

I suspect once they see neighbors and friends getting it with no apparent ill effects they will get it, especially if numbers go higher.  Of course, the true anti-vaxxers won't ever.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 14, 2021, 09:28:37 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 14, 2021, 09:25:18 AM
Let those who want to get vaccinated, do so.  Then they're immune from the anti-vaxers right?

In theory at least.  If the vaccine(s) are actually effective over time against a mutating virus.

For how long, we don't know. If they continue to propagate the virus, then what?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 14, 2021, 09:30:50 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 14, 2021, 09:26:00 AM
I wonder what the real number is of folks who really won't take the vaccine.

I suspect once they see neighbors and friends getting it with no apparent ill effects they will get it, especially if numbers go higher.  Of course, the true anti-vaxxers won't ever. 



Agreed. It's unrealistic to expect everyone to be immediately comfortable with the idea of taking this vaccine that we all know has been rushed to production faster than any other in the history of our country.  I have no intention of getting the vaccine within the first few months of its release.  I can't blame others for not wanting to do so.

But my i s c & a aggie wife went ahead and did it.  Not because it's state-mandated, but because she wanted to. 

Eventually I will, too.  By my own choice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 14, 2021, 09:31:39 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 14, 2021, 09:28:37 AM
For how long, we don't know. If they continue to propagate the virus, then what?
The virus is going to propagate anyway, regardless.  Forever.  You have to know that, right?  It's not going away.  The flu doesn't go away.  The cold doesn't go away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 14, 2021, 09:50:36 AM
Hopefully, with some immunity, it will decrease in severity. Also, treatments can improve.

So, moving forward, we're all getting flu shots AND Wuhan flu shots, every year. I guess??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 14, 2021, 10:01:52 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 14, 2021, 09:50:36 AM
Hopefully, with some immunity, it will decrease in severity. Also, treatments can improve.

So, moving forward, we're all getting flu shots AND Wuhan flu shots, every year. I guess??

I'd assume so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 14, 2021, 10:05:29 AM
I'm getting it as soon as it's available to me. Probably in March.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 14, 2021, 10:07:57 AM
The wife goes at noon today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 14, 2021, 10:08:38 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 14, 2021, 10:05:29 AM
I'm getting it as soon as it's available to me. Probably in March.

Well that's a good point, too.  I plan to wait a few months after release.  Realistically, I won't make it to the top of the list, before that time.   So really, I'll likely be getting it, as soon as my name is called.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 14, 2021, 10:28:47 AM
we don't get SARS-CoV, or MERS-CoV shots every year

hopefully COVID-19 will go away somehow as well
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on January 14, 2021, 10:34:38 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 14, 2021, 09:30:50 AM

But my i s c & a aggie wife went ahead and did it.  Not because it's state-mandated, but because she wanted to.

Eventually I will, too.  By my own choice.

My employer released a letter setting their companywide vaccination goal at 70% by first day of Spring. They are starting on a “volunteer basis” with a medical office they’ve contracted.
There’s about 1200 of us nationwide, and based on my sample size of knowing however many dozen, I doubt management will get the initial wave of volunteers they’re hoping for.
Wonder how their next vaccination letter reads.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 14, 2021, 10:37:23 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 14, 2021, 08:43:13 AM
Gave this some thought.

Those who choose to not get the shot also choose to not work in healthcare any longer, choose to not ever board an airplane, and also choose to quarantine until this thing is eradicated.

Seems fair.
Some of them don't actually have a choice. One of my wife's doctors who works part-time in a hospital, and her other doctor's husband who is a doctor and works in a hospital, were told that they get the shot or they can't come to work and don't get paid. 

I was reading one piece where they looked at frontline healthcare staff, and those with the most education are most likely to get the shot, while those with the least education are the least likely. 

Which should tell you something.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 14, 2021, 10:38:51 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 14, 2021, 10:08:38 AM
Well that's a good point, too.  I plan to wait a few months after release.  Realistically, I won't make it to the top of the list, before that time.  So really, I'll likely be getting it, as soon as my name is called.

That's pretty much where I was... Figured that due to age, career, and health that by the time my name got called there'd be 100M others who would have already had it.

I've changed my tune and I'd get it today if possible. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 14, 2021, 11:01:55 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on January 14, 2021, 10:37:23 AM
Some of them don't actually have a choice. One of my wife's doctors who works part-time in a hospital, and her other doctor's husband who is a doctor and works in a hospital, were told that they get the shot or they can't come to work and don't get paid.

I was reading one piece where they looked at frontline healthcare staff, and those with the most education are most likely to get the shot, while those with the least education are the least likely.

Which should tell you something.
tells me everything 

I haven't done a lot of research, but some.  And then listening to intelligent folks here.

the people that I know that are afraid of the virus have done no research and know almost nothing about it.
I try to forward articles to them if they seem willing to educate themselves.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 14, 2021, 11:44:49 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on January 14, 2021, 10:38:51 AM
That's pretty much where I was... Figured that due to age, career, and health that by the time my name got called there'd be 100M others who would have already had it.

I've changed my tune and I'd get it today if possible.
Yeah I'm still in the same place.   But it's also easy for me to WFH and isolate.  I'm not overly worried if I get the virus, but I certainly wouldn't want to pass it on to my parents who are 80 and 77.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on January 14, 2021, 12:07:22 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 14, 2021, 09:26:00 AM
I wonder what the real number is of folks who really won't take the vaccine.

I suspect once they see neighbors and friends getting it with no apparent ill effects they will get it, especially if numbers go higher.  Of course, the true anti-vaxxers won't ever. 
I doubt it. The usual suspects are right back to pumping their anti-vaccine chickenfeed, even though they are braggart about not being scared of a virus that puts every 6th infection in the hospital. 

How long do you think before proof of vaccination is required for travel on planes, employment, etc.? I give it to the end of 2021.

I know my wife and I will gladly roll up our sleeves when it's our turn, but I also know that my turn isn't going to come for a while. Since I've been full-time WFH since COVID started, I'm fine with that.  If anything, my wife (college professor) would get a call long before me, depending on how pushy her employers are.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 14, 2021, 12:10:23 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on January 14, 2021, 12:07:22 PM
I doubt it. The usual suspects are right back to pumping their anti-vaccine chickenfeed, even though they are braggart about not being scared of a virus that puts every 6th infection in the hospital.

How long do you think before proof of vaccination is required for travel on planes, employment, etc.? I give it to the end of 2021.

I know my wife and I will gladly roll up our sleeves when it's our turn, but I also know that my turn isn't going to come for a while. Since I've been full-time WFH since COVID started, I'm fine with that.  If anything, my wife (college professor) would get a call long before me, depending on how pushy her employers are.

Die-hard anti-vaxers are going to fight it, of course.  But that's a pretty small segment.

I've already said that I'll wait to get it, but that I'll eventually get it.  I think the majority of people wanting to wait it out, are like me.  They're not hardcore Jenny McCarthy enthusiasts.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 14, 2021, 01:04:30 PM
Complete mess at vaccine place and they ran out.  Hours waiting for noon appt
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 14, 2021, 01:09:57 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 14, 2021, 12:10:23 PM
  They're not hardcore Jenny McCarthy enthusiasts.


I was, in the mid-90s.  Absolutely smokin'.
Now, her ideology makes her ugly.

I get the "no rush" to get vaccinated crowd, if they're not high-risk.  I'm getting it soon, but will/should continue living how I've been living (carefully).  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 14, 2021, 01:17:14 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 14, 2021, 12:10:23 PM
Die-hard anti-vaxers are going to fight it, of course.  But that's a pretty small segment.

I've already said that I'll wait to get it, but that I'll eventually get it.  I think the majority of people wanting to wait it out, are like me.  They're not hardcore Jenny McCarthy enthusiasts.
Apparently the healthcare workers who aren't getting vaccinated are also mostly in the wait it out crowd, rather than anti-vax by nature. 

For me I changed my mind based on two factors:



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 14, 2021, 01:18:52 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 14, 2021, 01:09:57 PM
I was, in the mid-90s.  Absolutely smokin'.
Now, her ideology makes her ugly.

I get the "no rush" to get vaccinated crowd, if they're not high-risk.  I'm getting it soon, but will/should continue living how I've been living (carefully). 
Well yeah, I was definitely a Jenny McCarthy enthusiast back in the day.  I figured someone would bring that up. :)


And as a teacher, I believe you should be at the front of the line along with critical healthcare workers for vaccinations.  

I admittedly have the luxury of working from home and being able to isolate pretty easily.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 14, 2021, 01:44:59 PM
For me I changed my mind based on 1 factor:

Research. I learned about how the vaccine was created, how it works, etc. While it may have short-term side effects (which we know), the concept of mRNA doesn't to me lead to some down the road horrific long term effects.

and since I'm only 58, I'll have to wait a good while anyway.  But, If I could take the vaccine today, I'd do it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 14, 2021, 01:45:31 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 14, 2021, 01:04:30 PM
Complete mess at vaccine place and they ran out.  Hours waiting for noon appt
I'd blame the federal government
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 14, 2021, 01:58:54 PM
pot-stirrer
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on January 14, 2021, 03:22:34 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on January 14, 2021, 01:17:14 PM
Apparently the healthcare workers who aren't getting vaccinated are also mostly in the wait it out crowd, rather than anti-vax by nature.

For me I changed my mind based on two factors:

  • Research. I learned about how the vaccine was created, how it works, etc. While it may have short-term side effects (which we know), the concept of mRNA doesn't to me lead to some down the road horrific long term effects.
  • We're seeing more transmissible mutations of the virus that make it much harder to avoid contracting it, even with the level of care I normally take. Maybe with the low case rates we were seeing three months ago I'd be more interested in waiting. With the level of transmission today, I don't feel like that is a good risk choice.



I am not an anti-vaxer, but I never have gotten any kind of vaccine since I was a child and did not intend to get any in future.

I have never had the flu, I generally don't catch anything.  But with the new grandbaby being sick, I will get any and all vaccine that I need to make sure I keep her healthy. I have been trying off and on to get on the schedule here in Arizona, but always says nothing is available.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 14, 2021, 03:30:21 PM
I have no problem getting the vaccination I just dont want to wait in line
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on January 14, 2021, 04:08:44 PM
My wife's group has been comparing notes with each other on reactions to vaccine.  One thing they've noticed, the type A blood type people have had the bulk of the symptomatic reactions for a day or more.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 14, 2021, 04:30:30 PM
So, the wife had a noon appointment, we arrive 20 minutes ahead of time, and the traffic is a nightmare.  A cop outside is directing, using the term loosely, folks this way and that, I can't turn left, so I go straight and make a U, then discover I can't turn right coming back, I have to turn left again, make another U and go straight into the parking lot.  It's a spacious lot, but they have folks for some reason "checking on you", four times, the wife got out and walked as it was a minute to noon.  Finally I park, plenty of spaces available. 

She texts me not to try and come inside, you can't.  OK, I sit in the car.  And wait.  The lot starts filling up now, traffic is incredible.  She texts me they ran out of vaccine and have to get more from Atlanta somewhere.  We're out in Alpharetta.

Finally after 2 PM she comes out.  I scoot out of the lot and find a main road and we find a nice bar/restaurant in Akpoharetta for lunch and a beer.

She told me once they had vaccine it was very professional, a fireman stuck her.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 14, 2021, 04:55:54 PM
it was very professional, a fireman stuck her.

from what I've seen on video footage, nearly anyone could be trained to give the injection.  I think I could do it properly after a 15 minute training
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 14, 2021, 04:56:17 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 14, 2021, 03:30:21 PM
I have no problem getting the vaccination I just dont want to wait in line
silly Texan
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 14, 2021, 05:12:11 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 14, 2021, 04:56:17 PM
silly Texan
Ignorant farmer
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 14, 2021, 05:17:20 PM
nobody likes waiting in line, but it happens from time to time for important things

pretty sure that is one of the most important things you learn in college
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 14, 2021, 05:26:05 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 14, 2021, 05:17:20 PM
nobody likes waiting in line, but it happens from time to time for important things

pretty sure that is one of the most important things you learn in college
I flunked standing in line

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on January 14, 2021, 05:30:18 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 14, 2021, 05:17:20 PM
pretty sure that is one of the most important things you learn in college
Not anymore. It's all online.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 14, 2021, 06:08:52 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on January 14, 2021, 05:30:18 PM
Not anymore. It's all online.
yep when I went to UT obviously there was no internet
and at the assigned time you showed up along with thousands of others
stood in line for whatever course you wanted and if you were lucky they gave you a card
which meant you were signed up for that course

youd spend all day long standing in lines and maybe get 4 of the 5 courses set then find out that 5th course 
wasnt offered when you needed it so you had to go back and stand in lines again until you had all your courses
set

When my daughter went to UT and explained to me how they registered over the internet I was floored
I told her that was very unfair
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on January 14, 2021, 08:19:56 PM
Quote from: MarqHusker on January 14, 2021, 04:08:44 PM
My wife's group has been comparing notes with each other on reactions to vaccine.  One thing they've noticed, the type A blood type people have had the bulk of the symptomatic reactions for a day or more.
My wife is A+, and she is worried about the reaction.  She's already got other complicating factors: multiple major allergies and lupus.
I'm O+ and my only complicating factor is age.  We're both getting ours Sunday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on January 15, 2021, 09:47:49 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 14, 2021, 09:31:39 AM
The virus is going to propagate anyway, regardless.  Forever.  You have to know that, right?  It's not going away.  The flu doesn't go away.  The cold doesn't go away.


Been waiting for longer term Covid projections and it looks like this study out of the U.K. is putting together some data:

“The preliminary findings in Public Health England’s SIREN study — which has surveyed thousands of U.K. health-care workers in a bid to establish whether prior infection protects against future infection — found antibodies provide an 83% rate of protection against reinfection, compared with people who have not had the disease before.“

”This immunity appears to last at least five months, the report said. Reinfections in people with antibodies were rare, the study published on Thursday found, with experts identifying 44 potential reinfections among 6,614 participants involved the study.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/14/covid-infection-provides-around-as-much-immunity-as-vaccines-study.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 15, 2021, 10:00:32 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on January 15, 2021, 09:47:49 AM
Been waiting for longer term Covid projections and it looks like this study out of the U.K. is putting together some data:

“The preliminary findings in Public Health England’s SIREN study — which has surveyed thousands of U.K. health-care workers in a bid to establish whether prior infection protects against future infection — found antibodies provide an 83% rate of protection against reinfection, compared with people who have not had the disease before.“

”This immunity appears to last at least five months, the report said. Reinfections in people with antibodies were rare, the study published on Thursday found, with experts identifying 44 potential reinfections among 6,614 participants involved the study.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/14/covid-infection-provides-around-as-much-immunity-as-vaccines-study.html
I hope protection from a vaccination lasts longer then five months
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 15, 2021, 10:08:14 AM
at least

could be double that for some
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 15, 2021, 10:16:20 AM
Yeah, if immunity (via vaccination and/or natural antibodies) only lasts 5 months for a decent % of the population, that's exactly why I continue to maintain that this is never going away.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 15, 2021, 10:22:35 AM
I posted this about a week ago... https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/01/06/1015822/covid-19-immunity-likely-lasts-for-years/


Quote
But the new study suggests reinfection should only be a problem for a very small percentage of people who’ve developed immunity—whether through an initial infection or by vaccination. 

In fact, the new study does show that a small number of recovered people do not have long-lasting immunity. But vaccination ought to offset that problem by ensuring herd immunity in the larger population. 

The new paper studied blood samples from 185 men and women who had recovered from covid-19—most from a mild infection, although 7% were hospitalized. Each person provided at least one blood sample between six days and eight months after their initial symptoms, and 43 of the samples were taken after six months. The team that ran the investigation measured the levels of several immunological agents that work together to prevent reinfection: antibodies (which tag a pathogen for destruction by the immune system or neutralize its activity), B cells (which make antibodies), and T cells (which kill infected cells). 

The researchers found that antibodies in the body declined moderately after eight months, although levels varied wildly between individuals. But T-cell numbers declined only modestly, and B-cell numbers held steady and sometimes inexplicably grew. That means that despite decreases in free-flowing antibodies, the components that can restart antibody production and coordinate an attack against the coronavirus stick around at pretty high levels. Crotty adds that the same mechanisms that lead to immune memory after infection also form the basis for immunity after vaccination, so the same trends ought to hold for vaccinated people as well. 

And while immunity to other coronaviruses has been less than stellar, it’s worth looking at what happens in people who recovered from SARS, a close cousin of the virus that causes covid-19. A study published in August showed that T cells specific to SARS can remain in the blood for at least 17 years (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32668444/), bolstering hopes that covid-19 immunity could last for decades.
Antibodies are only one small part of the puzzle...

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 15, 2021, 10:26:49 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on January 15, 2021, 10:22:35 AM
I posted this about a week ago... https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/01/06/1015822/covid-19-immunity-likely-lasts-for-years/

Antibodies are only one small part of the puzzle...



Yup, here's hoping those t-cells and b-cells can stay mighty and active. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 15, 2021, 10:32:49 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 15, 2021, 10:16:20 AM
Yeah, if immunity (via vaccination and/or natural antibodies) only lasts 5 months for a decent % of the population, that's exactly why I continue to maintain that this is never going away.


The opinion states "at least five months".  I did read someone is working on a booster/update.  And I'd guess at some point a variant will surface that is not well covered by the current vaccines.  

I wonder if the common cold first surfaced say 10,000 years ago, and humans developed immunity to it, but it morphed into something else, and then something else, etc.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 15, 2021, 10:40:44 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 15, 2021, 10:32:49 AM
The opinion states "at least five months".  I did read someone is working on a booster/update.  And I'd guess at some point a variant will surface that is not well covered by the current vaccines. 

I wonder if the common cold first surfaced say 10,000 years ago, and humans developed immunity to it, but it morphed into something else, and then something else, etc.



Yes, I'd imagine that's how it works.  That's why the doctors and scientists point out that there is "a collection of various coronaviruses" that cause the common cold.  It's not just one virus variant, and it seems reasonable to believe that this collection of coronaviruses evolved over time, to work around the human immune system.

The current pandemic is being caused by a novel coronavirus, something our immune systems have never seen before.  That's why it's so transmissible, and also why it's so physically dangerous, at least for certain segments of the human population.  But over time, as the human immune system adjusts to it and encounters it more frequently, it's reasonable to believe the transmissibility, and physical danger, will diminish.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 15, 2021, 10:57:38 AM
T cells and B cells.

Coronavirus: B cells and T cells explained (theconversation.com) (https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-b-cells-and-t-cells-explained-141888)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 15, 2021, 10:57:50 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 15, 2021, 10:16:20 AM
Yeah, if immunity (via vaccination and/or natural antibodies) only lasts 5 months for a decent % of the population, that's exactly why I continue to maintain that this is never going away.


I'd be willing to take a shot twice a year to make this go away.

I'm not willing to accept this as the new normal yet
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 15, 2021, 10:59:55 AM
I think the goal is to get enough natural immunity from those who have already been infected, and enough additional immunity via the vaccine, that transmission dies out completely. 

Seems to me that immunity is longer-lasting than the common cold, so the goal would be to actually eradicate it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 15, 2021, 11:00:58 AM
that's what I'm hoping for
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 15, 2021, 11:10:52 AM
That's what worries me about some of the anti-vaccine folks. 

The worst case scenario is that we always have enough people without immunity that not only is there a reservoir of small-scale transmission that is going on for years, stopping the chance to eradicate it, but that within that reservoir of transmission it mutates into something that the vaccine no longer offers protection for, or something with much higher lethality, or both(!). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 15, 2021, 11:44:47 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on January 15, 2021, 11:10:52 AM
That's what worries me about some of the anti-vaccine folks.

The worst case scenario is that we always have enough people without immunity that not only is there a reservoir of small-scale transmission that is going on for years, stopping the chance to eradicate it, but that within that reservoir of transmission it mutates into something that the vaccine no longer offers protection for, or something with much higher lethality, or both(!).

The anti-vax segment in the USA is a small fragment of the global population that won't ever get access to the vaccine.  There are huge populations in Africa and southern Asia that are too poor, too remote, and too disconnected, to ever get on a vaccine radar.  And people from outside those regions, travel inside them, all the time.

We're not going to eradicate this.  I sincerely hope that no government official has that as a cornerstone of the plan on how to address this, now and forever after.  Because that would be a plan that is destined for failure.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 15, 2021, 11:55:24 AM
damnit utee

that's not what I want to read this morning
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 15, 2021, 12:02:29 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 15, 2021, 11:55:24 AM
damnit utee

that's not what I want to read this morning
That's just my take so read it for what it's worth.

I just sincerely, vehemently don't want to see "eradication" as "the plan" from anyone important whose job it is to make such plans.  That's not realistic for the reasons I've outlined.

I want to see other, solid, achievable goals put in place, as the plan progresses for moving forward and dealing with this thing as it bounces around the globe over the next 5-10-50 years.  Getting as much of the herd vaccinated as possible is the logical step 1.  But it's only step 1.  Beyond that, what else is being done to address it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 15, 2021, 12:19:57 PM
well, somehow the public took the "flatten the curve" so as to not overrun hospitals and made it into "eradicate the virus" overnight

I feel most of this was political, but it is what it is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 15, 2021, 04:54:45 PM
Wisconsin clicking back down, which is good news.

(https://i.imgur.com/fJdMUdm.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 15, 2021, 04:56:37 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/bvZI3Ho.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 15, 2021, 04:59:54 PM
The hardest hit counties (SE Florida)

Dade County:

(https://i.imgur.com/2ElOnmd.png)

Broward:

(https://i.imgur.com/jutxXIg.png)

Palm Beach:

(https://i.imgur.com/WaXq5Ba.png)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on January 16, 2021, 09:06:28 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 15, 2021, 12:19:57 PM
well, somehow the public took the "flatten the curve" so as to not overrun hospitals and made it into "eradicate the virus" overnight

I feel most of this was political, but it is what it is.


This is an important point I’ve been wanting to sort out for a while - the scientific intention of the masks, 6ft apart, sheltering in place, etc was supposed to FLATTEN THE CURVE in order to SLOW the virus for the sake of keeping the hospital from overcrowding? Especially from a collective standpoint, masks (...etc) were never scientifically able to PREVENT the virus from spreading through the population? Scientifically, it was always only a matter of controlling the speed of spread? And hopefully it could be slowed enough to vaccinate a larger part of the population that hadn’t been infected? And this messaging all came about before the viral mutations emerged? 

In short, all the media talk about “listening to the SCIENCE” was only scientific inasmuch as SLOWING the spread; NOT PREVENTING the spread, which is what the message devolved into?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 16, 2021, 03:05:54 PM
Covid-19 immunity likely lasts for years | MIT Technology Review (https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/01/06/1015822/covid-19-immunity-likely-lasts-for-years/?fbclid=IwAR3OsYeoygBf22fn4N0sP4pHmZb9Lleg9sGzpMCFVrteyo7oWpyOM2Mujhc)

Potentially good news, but the variants could change this picture.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 16, 2021, 03:38:26 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on January 07, 2021, 08:25:27 PM
Good news: https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/01/06/1015822/covid-19-immunity-likely-lasts-for-years/
Heh. Cincy just reposted this same piece. ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 16, 2021, 05:53:07 PM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on January 16, 2021, 09:06:28 AM
In short, all the media talk about “listening to the SCIENCE” was only scientific inasmuch as SLOWING the spread; NOT PREVENTING the spread, which is what the message devolved into?
We were not hearing a consistent message on this but a confusion.  And yes, the concept was to prevent hospitals from failing.

If you flatten a curve, you don't necessarily alter the area under the curve, at least until a vaccine or herd immunity kicks in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 17, 2021, 10:44:02 AM
Summary: Virologist Dr. John Dye of the US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases gives the government’s latest thinking on COVID-19 vaccines, immunity, asymptomatic spread, and origin.

Virologist Dr. John Dye’s Q-and-A on COVID-19 Vaccines and Immunity (https://art19.com/shows/the-sharyl-attkisson-podcast/episodes/1c32f182-bc1d-4835-b1d7-254b91a11305)

skip the first 2:28

Dr. John seems legit, not political

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 17, 2021, 10:58:57 AM
KENOVA, W.Va. (AP) — Griffith & Feil Drug has been in business since 1892, a family-owned, small-town pharmacy. This isn’t their first pandemic.

More than a century after helping West Virginians confront the Spanish flu in 1918, the drugstore in Kenova, a community of about 3,000 people, is helping the state lead the nation in COVID-19 vaccine distribution.

West Virginia has emerged as an unlikely success in the nation’s otherwise chaotic vaccine rollout, largely because of the state’s decision to reject a federal partnership with CVS and Walgreens and instead enlist mom-and-pop pharmacies to vaccinate residents against the virus that has killed over 395,000 Americans.


More shots have gone into people’s arms per capita across West Virginia than in any other state, with at least 7.5% of the population receiving the first of two shots, according to federal data.

West Virginia was the first in the nation to finish offering first doses to all long-term care centers before the end of December, and the state expects to give second doses at those facilities by the end of January.

“Boy, have we noticed that. I think the West Virginia model is really one that we would love for a lot more states to adopt,” said John Beckner, a pharmacist who works at the Alexandria, Virginia-based National Community Pharmacists Association, which advocates for pharmacies across the country.

It’s early in the process, but that has not stopped Republican Gov. Jim Justice from proclaiming that the vaccine effort runs counter to preconceived notions about the Mountaineer State.

“Little old West Virginia, that was thought of for hundreds of years, you know, as a place where maybe we were backward or dark or dingy,” Justice said last week.

Rather than relying on national chains, 250 local pharmacists set up clinics in rural communities. The fact that residents who may be wary of the vaccine seem to trust them makes a difference.


https://apnews.com/article/politics-pandemics-west-virginia-coronavirus-pandemic-2e682c51172839a57ab17ca2b7b8d336 (https://apnews.com/article/politics-pandemics-west-virginia-coronavirus-pandemic-2e682c51172839a57ab17ca2b7b8d336)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on January 17, 2021, 08:20:41 PM
I'm not planning on taking the vaccine for awhile for several reasons.  One of which is that they just haven't had it out long enough to really know the long term effects.  There just hasn't been enough time.  Nobody really knows how long it will really last, if the virus mutates like the flu every year, etc.  And I don't care how safe it's been declared, it has been rushed since the get go, the manufacture has been rushed.  I'll take the vaccine once it becomes routine for everybody.  PS...I know plenty of people who have had vaccine shots that suffered side effects, like the shingles shot, chicken pox shot, etc.  So there are cases where the vaccine caused harm.  My father in law has been suffering for years since receiving the shingles shot, he wishes he would have never taken it.  I acknowledge that the covid shot is probably a completely different vaccine made in completely different ways than the ones I listed but I'm just using those as an example.  There is tremrndous political pressure out there to get this thing out.  Is it really safe?  Get back with me in a few years.  

The other thing is that I've already had covid, as verified by a PCR test and a blood antibody test.  So therefore in a sense I'm self vaccinated.  How long will my immunity last?  Nobody really knows, but some say 5 months and same say 5 years.  Either way I'm not afraid to catch it again no more than I am afraid of the flu. 

Losing my dad to this has made me really think about it a lot, and if I was over 65 I'd be lining up, but 45 and healthy?  I'll take my chances for now.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on January 17, 2021, 08:48:18 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 17, 2021, 10:58:57 AM
KENOVA, W.Va. (AP) — Griffith & Feil Drug has been in business since 1892, a family-owned, small-town pharmacy. This isn’t their first pandemic.

More than a century after helping West Virginians confront the Spanish flu in 1918, the drugstore in Kenova, a community of about 3,000 people, is helping the state lead the nation in COVID-19 vaccine distribution.

West Virginia has emerged as an unlikely success in the nation’s otherwise chaotic vaccine rollout, largely because of the state’s decision to reject a federal partnership with CVS and Walgreens and instead enlist mom-and-pop pharmacies to vaccinate residents against the virus that has killed over 395,000 Americans.


More shots have gone into people’s arms per capita across West Virginia than in any other state, with at least 7.5% of the population receiving the first of two shots, according to federal data.

West Virginia was the first in the nation to finish offering first doses to all long-term care centers before the end of December, and the state expects to give second doses at those facilities by the end of January.

“Boy, have we noticed that. I think the West Virginia model is really one that we would love for a lot more states to adopt,” said John Beckner, a pharmacist who works at the Alexandria, Virginia-based National Community Pharmacists Association, which advocates for pharmacies across the country.

It’s early in the process, but that has not stopped Republican Gov. Jim Justice from proclaiming that the vaccine effort runs counter to preconceived notions about the Mountaineer State.

“Little old West Virginia, that was thought of for hundreds of years, you know, as a place where maybe we were backward or dark or dingy,” Justice said last week.

Rather than relying on national chains, 250 local pharmacists set up clinics in rural communities. The fact that residents who may be wary of the vaccine seem to trust them makes a difference.


https://apnews.com/article/politics-pandemics-west-virginia-coronavirus-pandemic-2e682c51172839a57ab17ca2b7b8d336 (https://apnews.com/article/politics-pandemics-west-virginia-coronavirus-pandemic-2e682c51172839a57ab17ca2b7b8d336)
Well, it’s nice for WV to finally lead the nation in something that isn’t negative, lol.  That said, there have been some hiccups along the way here, too.  My wife has put in some long hours and dealt with a lot of aggravation trying to get the vaccines due her clinic and then getting them distributed to the people who need them the most.  After hours zoom calls have become the norm for her.  She had one today at 4:00 while she was cooking dinner.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 18, 2021, 10:32:19 AM
I won't wait for any "long term effects" to be seen, because it would mean waiting for a "long term", which could be years.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 18, 2021, 12:19:09 PM
I won't wait years, but I'll certainly give it a few months of ever-expanding MILLIONS of samples, rather than the handful that went into the trials, to see what shakes out.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 18, 2021, 12:23:11 PM
Something around 10 million Americans have been vaccinated.  How long does one wait for seeing side effects?

We had tens of thousands in the trials that ended 3-4 months back.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 18, 2021, 12:24:58 PM
well, Utee couldn't get a shot this week if he begged, so easy for him to wait a few more months

I'm guessing if utee was 90 years old, he would have been standing in line.

@utee, have your parents and your in-laws lined up yet?

My brother's FIL got his first shot in Dallas, 2nd shot is scheduled for early Feb.  Before I visit the week of the 22nd.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 18, 2021, 12:35:10 PM
Just heard my parents both got their first shot last week, Pfizer. No issues.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 18, 2021, 12:43:23 PM
my boss told me this morning that a woman he knows had a reaction from the vaccine.  Was significant, but nothing worse than being sick from the virus.

swelling and a rash
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 18, 2021, 12:52:02 PM
My wife just had a sore arm. Her office MA had some itching and rash at the injection site in addition to the sore arm, though, so it was a little more of a reaction. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 18, 2021, 12:53:34 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 18, 2021, 12:23:11 PM
Something around 10 million Americans have been vaccinated.  How long does one wait for seeing side effects?

We had tens of thousands in the trials that ended 3-4 months back.

I don't know how long "one waits" for seeing side effects.

Speaking for myself only, I already said, I'll be waiting for several months after the second dose has gone into millions of arms.  

Tens of thousands is a tiny sample compared to tens of millions.  But I don't have to tell you that, you're a scientist.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 18, 2021, 12:56:33 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 18, 2021, 12:24:58 PM
well, Utee couldn't get a shot this week if he begged, so easy for him to wait a few more months

I'm guessing if utee was 90 years old, he would have been standing in line.

@utee, have your parents and your in-laws lined up yet?

My brother's FIL got his first shot in Dallas, 2nd shot is scheduled for early Feb.  Before I visit the week of the 22nd.

My i s c & a aggie wife has already done the first dose. No side effects, not even really any soreness at the injection site. Her second shot is somewhat in question, the state and local distribution has been altered over the past couple of weeks.

My inlaws already had COVID back in July.  They're not overly worried about a vaccine.

My own parents have signed up and are on a waiting list of some kind.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 18, 2021, 01:04:40 PM
if you listen to and believe Virologist Dr. John Dye, there's good reason to take the vaccine even if you've had COVID
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 18, 2021, 01:42:18 PM

The number of people hospitalized with the coronavirus in Iowa has dipped below 500 for the first time since October.

The Iowa Department of Public Health said 474 people were being treated for COVID-19 in hospitals Saturday, down from 505 on Friday. The last time the number of people hospitalized was below 500 was on Oct. 18. The state reported 730 new cases and two deaths Sunday to give Iowa a total of 304,852 cases and 4,323 deaths since the pandemic began.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 18, 2021, 02:02:16 PM
7 day weighted average of USA positives


(https://i.imgur.com/UazSCwy.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on January 18, 2021, 02:18:24 PM
Millions of people likely flew on a 737max before, well, you know. 

As I said, having already had covid, I’m in no hurry. I’ll probably take the vaccine next year which is probably when it will be widely available anyway. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2021, 03:24:10 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/gnLZoeU.png)

Only the aforementioned West Virginia and North Dakota have done better as a percent of population.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 18, 2021, 03:28:21 PM
small rural pharmacies 

git'r done!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2021, 03:30:18 PM
Gotta dig for the data and not read the "news" pages. One would think Florida is a shit show otherwise. 

It isn't, by any reasonable measure, in this whole thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2021, 03:31:33 PM
Here is the link, for those interested in how their own state compares with others.


COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker | jacksonville.com (https://data.jacksonville.com/covid-19-vaccine-tracker/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 18, 2021, 03:38:51 PM
quite a few states around 4%

not terrible in my opinion, just getting started

as with most things, it will get much better as bugs get worked out

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2021, 03:40:09 PM
I'm sure of that. I like the exponential trends.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 18, 2021, 04:47:57 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 18, 2021, 01:04:40 PM
if you listen to and believe Virologist Dr. John Dye, there's good reason to take the vaccine even if you've had COVID
Or if you listen to and believe the article CD posted yesterday, immunity likely lasts for years...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 18, 2021, 05:08:15 PM
Doc Dye says no one knows for sure at the moment

says the vaccine after you've had COVID would be like a "booster" shot to your immune system

says we may all need "boosters" or repeated vaccine shots over time to keep our immunity strong enough to ward off the virus and hopefully someday, maybe years from now, finish off the virus
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 18, 2021, 05:56:13 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 18, 2021, 05:08:15 PM
Doc Dye says no one knows for sure at the moment

says the vaccine after you've had COVID would be like a "booster" shot to your immune system

says we may all need "boosters" or repeated vaccine shots over time to keep our immunity strong enough to ward off the virus and hopefully someday, maybe years from now, finish off the virus

But I was told immunity was conferred for years. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 18, 2021, 05:58:15 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 18, 2021, 04:47:57 PM
Or if you listen to and believe the article CD posted yesterday, immunity likely lasts for years...

I think it said at least a year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 18, 2021, 06:07:43 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 18, 2021, 05:56:13 PM
But I was told immunity was conferred for years.
I'd rather believe the guy that says that no one knows for sure
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 18, 2021, 06:24:34 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 18, 2021, 05:58:15 PM
I think it said at least a year.

That's not what the headlines said... 

Quote from: FearlessF on January 18, 2021, 06:07:43 PM
I'd rather believe the guy that says that no one knows for sure

If they don't know, why would I listen to them?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 18, 2021, 06:47:18 PM
because obviously no one knows

it's the goofballs that claim that they know with any certainty that don't know
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 18, 2021, 07:00:53 PM
EXACTLY!!!!!

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 18, 2021, 07:13:14 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 18, 2021, 05:56:13 PM
But I was told immunity was conferred for years.
Tough to say anything conclusive long-term for a virus that has existed in the wild for ~14 months. And for a vaccine that has existed in the wild in large numbers for ~1 month. 

The article pointed out that based on our understanding of the immune system, and B and T cells, that the "memory" and thus immunity to the virus could very well last years. Patients infected by SARS in 2003 have been shown to have the T cells remaining in their system 17 years later. 

So there's no reason to believe immunity *can't* last years... And yet no actual evidence at this time to *know* that it does, because we don't have years of study. 

Knowing the length of the immunity is important, but it's step 117. We're on step 12 (widespread vaccine rollout) at this point. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 18, 2021, 09:52:39 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on January 18, 2021, 07:13:14 PM
Tough to say anything conclusive long-term for a virus that has existed in the wild for ~14 months. And for a vaccine that has existed in the wild in large numbers for ~1 month.

The article pointed out that based on our understanding of the immune system, and B and T cells, that the "memory" and thus immunity to the virus could very well last years. Patients infected by SARS in 2003 have been shown to have the T cells remaining in their system 17 years later.

So there's no reason to believe immunity *can't* last years... And yet no actual evidence at this time to *know* that it does, because we don't have years of study.

Knowing the length of the immunity is important, but it's step 117. We're on step 12 (widespread vaccine rollout) at this point.

Yeah... you do realize I know all this, right? :)

My point is precisely as you state it-- we still don't know much at all about this virus.  And we also don't know much about the vaccine either.  Get it? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2021, 08:06:07 AM
I like my T cells and B cells. I'm keeping them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 19, 2021, 08:34:24 AM
That's a sound plan.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 19, 2021, 08:44:12 AM
GENEVA (AP) — A panel of experts commissioned by the World Health Organization has criticized China and other countries for not moving to stem the initial outbreak of the coronavirus earlier and questioned whether the U.N. health agency should have labeled it a pandemic sooner.

In a report issued to the media Monday, the panel led by former Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and former New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark said there were “lost opportunities” to set up basic public health measures as early as possible.

“What is clear to the panel is that public health measures could have been applied more forcefully by local and national health authorities in China in January,” shortly after the coronavirus began sickening clusters of people, it said.

The panel also cited evidence of cases in other countries in late January, saying public health containment measures should have been put in place immediately in any country with a likely case, adding: “They were not.”

“The reality is that only a minority of countries took full advantage of the information available to them to respond to the evidence of an emerging pandemic,” the panel said.

The experts also wondered why WHO did not declare a global public health emergency — its highest warning for outbreaks — sooner. The U.N. health agency convened its emergency committee on Jan. 22, but did not characterize the emerging pandemic as an international emergency until a week later. At the time, WHO said its expert committee was divided on whether a global emergency should be declared.

“One more question is whether it would have helped if WHO used the word pandemic earlier than it did,” the panel said.

WHO did not describe the COVID-19 outbreak as a pandemic until March 11, weeks after the virus had begun causing explosive outbreaks in numerous continents, meeting WHO’s own definition for a flu pandemic.


https://apnews.com/article/international-news-pandemics-public-health-coronavirus-pandemic-helen-clark-c9204041b189cebbeec84559c03529f4 (https://apnews.com/article/international-news-pandemics-public-health-coronavirus-pandemic-helen-clark-c9204041b189cebbeec84559c03529f4)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 19, 2021, 09:12:25 AM
We won't KNOW about immunity duration for more than a year from its start, obviously.  If we had serum AB numbers from someone infected each month over time, "we" could do an extrapolation, and maybe someone has that.

The second issue of course is whether some variant is able to evade the immunity, which seems probably in time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 19, 2021, 09:15:58 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2021, 08:06:07 AM
I like my T cells and B cells. I'm keeping them.
For the last time, Obama is not after your T-cells!!!  :57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2021, 09:17:46 AM
I normally (almost always) get sick about 4 times a year, once every season change. Bad cold, bronchitis, etc.

I've not had so much as a sniffle since March.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 19, 2021, 09:19:48 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2021, 09:17:46 AM
I normally (almost always) get sick about 4 times a year, once every season change. Bad cold, bronchitis, etc.

I've not had so much as a sniffle since March.
Turns out human interaction is bad for our health!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2021, 09:28:34 AM
Plenty of human interaction for me since May. Still nothing.

I had to discard all of my Mucinex and other crap. Expired.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 19, 2021, 09:32:34 AM
I think hand washing and mask wearing are good practices in general for cutting colds and flu.

Makes sense.

Flu numbers are down this year due to higher vaccination rates amid COVID pandemic - ABC News (go.com) (https://abcnews.go.com/Health/flu-numbers-year-due-higher-vaccination-rates-amid/story?id=74783195)

Flu vax went from 174 to 189 million apparently, which is a decent increase.

Flu activity, or incidence of flu cases, in November 2020 was approximately 91% lower than in November 2019, according to the data.

Analysts mapped the data, which they call the Walgreens Flu Index, to show via color coordination how heavily each state has been affected by the flu. A time-lapse of the map from the 2019-2020 flu season to the 2020-2021 season shows a dramatic shift from mostly red-colored states (which means high flu activity) to mostly green-colored states (which means low flu activity).

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 19, 2021, 09:41:24 AM
Yeah I think the mask-wearing and distancing and cancellation of most large-scale events and limited capacity in many public spaces have a lot more to do with the decrease in flu rates, than any change to the number of flu vaccines does.

Many of us predicted this in the summer-- the same behaviors that reduce transmission of the novel coronavirus, also diminish the transmission of the flu. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2021, 10:18:40 AM
200,000,000 vaccinations probably helped too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 19, 2021, 10:20:43 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2021, 10:18:40 AM
200,000,000 vaccinations probably helped too.
Flue vacine number is only up from 174M to 189M year-over-year, which is 8.6%.  I don't think that explains much, if any, of a 91% drop in flu rate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2021, 10:32:39 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 19, 2021, 10:20:43 AM
Flue vacine number is only up from 174M to 189M year-over-year, which is 8.6%.  I don't think that explains much, if any, of a 91% drop in flu rate.
The season is not over. People are still getting the shot. And, an 8.6 percent (now much higher) increase in vaccinations COULD lead to such a drop.

Weekly National Flu Vaccination Dashboard | FluVaxView | Seasonal Influenza (Flu) | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/dashboard/vaccination-dashboard.html)



This is a big number too:

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 19, 2021, 10:34:06 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2021, 09:17:46 AM
I normally (almost always) get sick about 4 times a year, once every season change. Bad cold, bronchitis, etc.

I've not had so much as a sniffle since March.
when our children left home we stopped getting colds

I have not had a cold in years
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2021, 10:37:41 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 19, 2021, 10:34:06 AM
when our children left home we stopped getting colds

I have not had a cold in years
Wish I could say the same. But, it's still been almost a year since I've been sick.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 19, 2021, 10:52:02 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2021, 10:32:39 AM
The season is not over. People are still getting the shot. And, an 8.6 percent (now much higher) increase in vaccinations COULD lead to such a drop.

Weekly National Flu Vaccination Dashboard | FluVaxView | Seasonal Influenza (Flu) | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/dashboard/vaccination-dashboard.html)


  • As of January 1, 2021, 192.5 million doses of flu vaccine (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/dashboard/vaccination-doses-distributed.html) have been distributed in the United States. This is the highest number of flu doses distributed in the United States during a single influenza season.

This is a big number too:

  • As of MMWR week 52 (ending Dec 26, 2020), an estimated 47.1 million adult flu vaccinations had been administered in pharmacies compared with 33.2 million at the same time during 2019 (42% higher in 2020).


Those numbers are fine.

I don't think they come anywhere close to explaining a 91% drop in flu rate nationally.  Given the YoY increase %, it's a drop in the bucket.

Mask-wearing, distancing, isolation, washing hands, cancellation of nearly all large-scale events, decreased or eliminated in-person capacity at bars and restaurants-- these are the things that have led to the massive drop in flu rates.

Exactly as many of us predicted here on this very thread, last summer.  And exactly as it occurred in Australia and other Southern Hemisphere locations whose 2020 flu season preceded ours.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2021, 11:03:04 AM
You don't think a 42 percent increase in adult vaccinations contributes? 

I mean, not everyone is washing their hands, distancing and wearing masks. 

Mask use is about 75 percent nationwide. 25 percent is a lot of people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 19, 2021, 11:17:20 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2021, 11:03:04 AM
You don't think a 42 percent increase in adult vaccinations contributes?

I mean, not everyone is washing their hands, distancing and wearing masks.

Mask use is about 75 percent nationwide. 25 percent is a lot of people.

Mass Work From Home.  Cancellation of all large-scale events nationwide.  No concerts.  No State Fairs.  Restaurants at 50% or less all across the nation.  Bars closed in various places all across the nation.  The most massive shut-down of public events and spaces in US history.  Plus increased mask-wearing, hand-washing, social distancing, etc.  

Yeah, I think all of that's a FAR greater contributor than flu vaccines, which we know can be something like 40%-50% effective.  The CDC estimates the 2019-2020 flu vaccine was only 37%-50% effective depending on strain.

So no, I don't think it's anywhere close to a major contributor to a 91% drop in flu rate YoY.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on January 19, 2021, 11:19:30 AM
Latest COVID stories from here in California:

Cremation limitations lifted: "According to the order, as of Jan. 15, there are more than 2,700 bodies being stored at hospitals [in Los Angeles metro] and the Coroner's Office, and the 28 crematories in the county have the resources to perform more cremations without the regulatory limits. The latest surge of the virus has been devastating to the Los Angeles area. To date, more than 1 million have been diagnosed with COVID-19, according to LA Public Health, and nearly 14,000 people have died."

One vaccine solution causing allergic reaction: "California’s top epidemiologist Dr. Erica S. Pan issued a statement Sunday evening recommending providers pause the administration of lot ‘041L20A’ of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine due to possible allergic reactions that are under investigation. “A higher-than-usual number of possible allergic reactions were reported with a specific lot of Moderna vaccine administered at one community vaccination clinic. Fewer than 10 individuals required medical attention over the span of 24 hours,” Dr. Pan said."


https://twitter.com/jadewalker/status/1351443957327273985


https://twitter.com/jsolomonReports/status/1351251779648958470

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 19, 2021, 11:32:59 AM
Permits for crematoriums contain limits on the number of human remains that may be cremated each month "based on potential air quality impacts," the South Coast Air Quality Management District said

with all the wildfires out there????  and all the traffic???

might want to lift that limit for a few months to dispose of bodies properly
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2021, 12:05:25 PM
Scary when you think about it.

Is anything being done to stop another pandemic emerging from China? | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/world/is-anything-being-done-stop-another-pandemic-emerging-china)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 19, 2021, 12:25:23 PM
Neighbor across the street put 12 yrs in the navy and said some friends stationed in Korea warned him last fall that the RoK & the US Military had deciphered dispatches from the Peoples Republic indicating something was going very wrong.That is why Trump(the Feds) tried to reign in travel from the Pacific.Only to be called racist by Eva Braun Nancy Pelosi as she visited asian markets in SF assuring us everything was fine.Then later over compensating shutting down everything driving small shops out of Business.SMDH
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 19, 2021, 12:39:12 PM
the political thread is that way   ----------->>>
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 19, 2021, 12:58:01 PM
Repurposing drugs - Two arthritis medicines prove effective for covid-19 | Science & technology | The Economist (https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2021/01/14/two-arthritis-medicines-prove-effective-for-covid-19?utm_campaign=editorial-social&utm_medium=social-organic&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1DKiaXzDdxJPuWw-_Ier70UNiOI-bi7OTP7Zz1FjcO54fgYffkTtKeQp4)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 19, 2021, 01:00:54 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2021, 12:05:25 PM
Scary when you think about it.

Is anything being done to stop another pandemic emerging from China? | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/world/is-anything-being-done-stop-another-pandemic-emerging-china)

they dont need another one now
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 19, 2021, 01:06:45 PM
not yet
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 19, 2021, 01:21:41 PM
Very interesting... Note that this comes from Kevin Drum. He's a leftie blogger / journalist. He's an interesting read, and often has very unique takes on certain things, and sometimes those takes are off the rails. But I like reading him because he's not "on script" like so many political bloggers.

So I'm not vetting the below, but it's worth thinking about and looking into...

His piece: https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2021/01/chart-of-the-day-why-is-covid-19-worse-in-some-parts-of-the-world-and-better-in-others/
The study his piece is based on: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7772148/


Quote
Human cells all contain proteins called human leukocyte antigens, or HLAs, which swim around and periodically latch on to invading viruses, which they bring to the surface of the cell. White blood cells, patrolling outside the cells, are always looking for stuff that doesn’t belong, and if an HLA presents an invader to the surface of the cell white blood cells immediately attack and destroy the entire cell. Conversely, if no HLA brings a virus to the surface, then its existence goes undetected and the immune system can’t attack it.

Now here’s the interesting part: there are dozens of different kinds of HLAs, and everybody has a different HLA profile. That’s one reason that if you and I both get sneezed on by someone with a cold, one of us might get sick while the other doesn’t. It means that one of us happened to have the right HLA to latch onto the virus while the other one didn’t.

And here’s the even more interesting part: different human populations have different average HLA profiles. This means that some populations are more resistant to certain diseases than others. For example, COVID-19.

In a recent paper, (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7772148/) a team of researchers looked at 140 different HLAs, and in particular discovered that COVID-19 seemed to be sensitive to the ratio of the S and N types. Here’s the chart:
(https://www.motherjones.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/blog_covid19_hla_distribution.jpg)

One of the great mysteries of COVID-19 is why China has been relatively unscathed. Aside from the initial outbreak in Wuhan, there have been hardly any cases in the entire country. But how can that be? Even with strong quarantine procedures, it’s simply not plausible that a fairly transmissible virus like COVID-19 could fail to spread widely in a country of over a billion people.

HLAs might be the answer. As you can see in the chart, the authors estimate that the S/N ratio for China is about 5.7, one of the highest in the world. That would suggest high resistance to the COVID-19 virus. At the other end, Sweden has an S/N ratio of 3.8, one of the lowest in the world. It’s possible that the “Swedish experiment” was never an experiment at all. They might have been doomed to a high COVID-19 infection rate no matter what they had done.

As with any sort of a correlation study, this may not imply causation. When you're looking at ratios between up to 140 different HLA proteins, it's quite possible that you might find something that doesn't exist. This is a common issue in correlation studies. 

But most of Asia, where they've better controlled the pandemic, is on the right side of the chart. Most of the English-speaking western world (incl USA and UK) is on the left. Some of the other hot spots, Spain/Italy/Brazil/France, are over there as well. Czechia, which 94 keeps bringing up, is also way on the left--they've got huge case numbers but perhaps not as high on deaths. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 19, 2021, 01:26:00 PM
One of my wife's doctors just got the second jab with Pfizer, and apparently her side effects are pretty brutal this time... Couldn't even make it into the office today, feels so bad she can't even really sit up. Her other doctor got the same shot and has nothing, but she's apparently "super woman" when it comes to these sorts of things usually. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 19, 2021, 02:03:49 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on January 19, 2021, 01:26:00 PM
One of my wife's doctors just got the second jab with Pfizer, and apparently her side effects are pretty brutal this time... Couldn't even make it into the office today, feels so bad she can't even really sit up. Her other doctor got the same shot and has nothing, but she's apparently "super woman" when it comes to these sorts of things usually.
Yeah, differing body chemistry (perhaps HLA ratios?) is inevitably going to play a large part not only in how susceptible an individual is to contracting the disease, but also the duration and severity of the symptoms of both the disease and the side effects of the vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2021, 02:22:45 PM
I'd also be curious to know the blood types of the two doctors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 19, 2021, 02:23:02 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on January 19, 2021, 01:26:00 PM
One of my wife's doctors just got the second jab with Pfizer, and apparently her side effects are pretty brutal this time... Couldn't even make it into the office today, feels so bad she can't even really sit up. Her other doctor got the same shot and has nothing, but she's apparently "super woman" when it comes to these sorts of things usually.
my understanding was that the 2nd jab was nearly identical to the 1st jab.

Did she have similar side effects the first time?  If not, I wonder what changed?  I different "Lot" of the vaccine?  Why would these "lots" from Pfizer or Madorna be different in any way?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 19, 2021, 02:36:32 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 19, 2021, 02:23:02 PM
my understanding was that the 2nd jab was nearly identical to the 1st jab.

Did she have similar side effects the first time?  If not, I wonder what changed?  I different "Lot" of the vaccine?  Why would these "lots" from Pfizer or Madorna be different in any way?
The shot is identical, but the general report is that side effects are more likely and/or more severe on the second one. That's been widely reported.

I would think it has to do with the fact that your immune system has changed in its response between the first and second dose based upon having the first one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 20, 2021, 09:34:13 AM
Update from yesterday:

(https://i.imgur.com/yS574PD.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/kotb6qY.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 20, 2021, 09:37:36 AM
WI:

(https://i.imgur.com/UsT1wVK.png)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 20, 2021, 10:23:11 AM
Georgia may be declining, off a high level.  I said this before and it was a blip, but this blip looks larger.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on January 20, 2021, 12:00:21 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on January 19, 2021, 01:21:41 PM

But most of Asia, where they've better controlled the pandemic, is on the right side of the chart. Most of the English-speaking western world (incl USA and UK) is on the left. Some of the other hot spots, Spain/Italy/Brazil/France, are over there as well. Czechia, which 94 keeps bringing up, is also way on the left--they've got huge case numbers but perhaps not as high on deaths.





China should so clearly be thrown out of this study I’m not sure it’s even worth getting into what are (even without China) numbers that are all over the place across the world. China’s image-obsessed government all but stopped reporting deaths sometime last April. However, HLAs make a worthwhile case for the low numbers across Japan and South Korea.

Looking at who’s leading the death totals let’s hypothesize competing factors:

(https://i.imgur.com/drDrWhZ.png)

Population size: India vaults near the top despite low Deaths/1M (110) based solely on population of over a billion. Which should suggest where China should be.

First World/Western Vs Third World Death Tolls: Are seven of the top twelve nations Western Nations because they more aggressively track and confirm deaths whereas for a nation like Nigeria (over 200M) with less than 1500 death and 7 Deaths/1M, are many deaths not even being tested for Covid? Either due to lack of medical capability or medical inquiry.

Reported deaths are either:

Low:
By refusal to report: China, North Korea
By intentional under reporting: Iran (57K official Vs 201K likely projection)
By lack of medical capability: Nigeria & African neighbors, India(?)

High:
By aggressively tracking and confirming all deaths as either Covid or not: (most European nations)
By over-attributing deaths when other causes of death are also at play: USA – what other reasons is there for how the US claims 20% of global covid deaths?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on January 20, 2021, 03:40:51 PM
There was an article awhile back that based on the number of declining cell phone activity ( I have no idea how they would be able to glean such data but somehow they did) that China is far under-reporting deaths which should surprise no one.  There is no way that China is being truthful on COVID infections or deaths, not when the virus started and not now.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on January 21, 2021, 10:21:44 AM
Bad Covid news from a yet-to-be peer reviewed study out of the UK:

"Almost a third of recovered COVID-19 patients in a UK study ended up back in the hospital within five months — and up to one in eight died of complications from the illness, according to a report.

Researchers at the UK’s Leicester University and the Office for National Statistics found that out of 47,780 people discharged from the hospital, 29.4 percent were readmitted within 140 days, the Telegraph reported.

Of the total, 12.3 percent [about 1 in 8] ended up dying, it added.

Respiratory disease was diagnosed in 14,140 of the COVID cases after discharge, with 6,085 of the diagnoses in patients who had no history of respiratory conditions.

The mean age of study participants was 65 years."


From the New York Post:

https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1351161803468898311
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 21, 2021, 10:33:49 AM
I saw that a couple days ago.  I'm going to wait for some rigorous peer review before I hit the panic button, but that's disappointing news any way you look at it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 21, 2021, 11:09:41 AM
The difference in the quality of health care between the UK and the US is huge

Until I see evidence we are experiencing similar stats Im putting my panic on hold
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 21, 2021, 11:34:01 AM
pretty sure that would be a big story here if things were similar in the USA
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 21, 2021, 11:58:42 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 21, 2021, 10:33:49 AM
I saw that a couple days ago.  I'm going to wait for some rigorous peer review before I hit the panic button, but that's disappointing news any way you look at it.

Quote from: longhorn320 on January 21, 2021, 11:09:41 AM
The difference in the quality of health care between the UK and the US is huge

Until I see evidence we are experiencing similar stats Im putting my panic on hold
Quote from: FearlessF on January 21, 2021, 11:34:01 AM
pretty sure that would be a big story here if things were similar in the USA
Mean age of the study was 65 years of age. Obviously that skews much higher than the population. 

It was a study of people who had been admitted [and discharged] from the hospital due to COVID. That naturally skews to the most severe cases as well, people in the worst shape and likely the most comorbidities. 

Study posted here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.15.21249885v1.full.pdf

Quote
At baseline, individuals with COVID-19 had a mean age of 64.5 years (SD 19.2 years) and 54.9% were male. Compared with the general population, individuals in hospital with COVD-19 were more likely to be aged ≥50 years, male, living in a deprived area, a former smoker, and overweight or obese (Table 1). Individuals with COVID-19 were also more likely to be comorbid than the general population, with a higher prevalence of prior hospitalisation and all measured pre-existing conditions (most notably hypertension, MACE, respiratory disease and diabetes).

Now 1 in 8 died within 5 months. That sounds like a ridiculously high number. But when you figure that the group was skewed older, more towards smokers and the overweight, more towards higher comorbidities, AND were the most severe cases of COVID-19 requiring hospitalization, it makes sense. It's still a higher number than I would have thought, but much less ridiculously high.

BTW I'm not worried about peer review on this one. Looking at the study and its methodology, it looks like it's really cut and dried without a bunch of statistical magic to tease out these numbers. Unlike the study I posted regarding the immune system differences across countries, which required tons of statistical magic to find the correlation they found, this one is very simple. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 21, 2021, 02:33:00 PM
This is the part that caught my eye--

"with 6,085 of the diagnoses in patients who had no history of respiratory conditions."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on January 21, 2021, 02:42:52 PM
https://twitter.com/dhmontgomery/status/1352306611847524355?s=20
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 21, 2021, 03:50:54 PM
In her press conference this morning, Gov. Reynolds announced that the state of Iowa will begin allocating vaccines for individuals ages 65 and older on February 1. However, that does not mean that your local pharmacy will receive vaccines on that date.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 21, 2021, 03:56:31 PM
Georgia has been doing 65+ for two weeks now, but there are no openings for appointments anywhere.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 22, 2021, 05:33:16 AM
Covid-19: What we learned since the first U.S. case was confirmed (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/21/covid-19-what-we-learned-since-the-first-us-case-was-confirmed.html)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 22, 2021, 09:22:38 AM
COVID-19 Drug Scorecard Is Mixed : Shots - Health News : NPR (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/01/22/959398452/after-a-year-battling-covid-19-drug-treatments-get-a-mixed-report-card)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 22, 2021, 10:41:09 AM
Updates from yesterday:

(https://i.imgur.com/g8zqnYN.png)

Wisconsin:

(https://i.imgur.com/PJwKqnZ.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 22, 2021, 12:39:37 PM
Dr. Fauci says Covid vaccines appear to be less effective against some new strains (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/21/dr-fauci-says-covid-vaccines-appear-to-be-less-effective-against-some-new-strains.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 22, 2021, 12:56:46 PM
I was under the impression that these were variants and not different strains

I suppose it's just terminology used improperly

I hope so, new strains would be scary stuff.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 22, 2021, 01:10:13 PM
Seems to me that the headline of that article is somewhat misleading.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 22, 2021, 02:11:09 PM
I'll be watching this with a curious eye on Sunday.


In this excerpt from an interview to be broadcast on "CBS Sunday Morning" on January 24, Dr. Anthony Fauci talks with special contributor Ted Koppel about government action that would have resulted in fewer lives lost to the coronavirus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 22, 2021, 02:28:17 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 22, 2021, 02:11:09 PM
I'll be watching this with a curious eye on Sunday.


In this excerpt from an interview to be broadcast on "CBS Sunday Morning" on January 24, Dr. Anthony Fauci talks with special contributor Ted Koppel about government action that would have resulted in fewer lives lost to the coronavirus.
as you watch it just remember most of the virus actions taken fell to the states responsibility

not the federal government
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 22, 2021, 02:33:11 PM
I'm aware of this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 22, 2021, 02:57:23 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 22, 2021, 05:33:16 AM
Covid-19: What we learned since the first U.S. case was confirmed (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/21/covid-19-what-we-learned-since-the-first-us-case-was-confirmed.html)


from this article.................

But keep politics, as much as possible, out of it, added Slaoui, who resigned last week as chief adviser to Operation Warp Speed, the Trump administration’s effort to develop vaccines and drugs for Covid-19.

“We must never again politicize public health issues,” Slaoui said. “I am sure this has cost tens of thousands of lives.”

On government and industry
Both Slaoui and Borio, as well as former FDA Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb, who is now a CNBC contributor and board member of Pfizer and Illumina, said the first year of the pandemic demonstrated the importance of public-private partnerships and of acting on them quickly.

“The refusal of CDC to pivot early to engage commercial labs and commercial test kits left us blind to the early spread,” Gottlieb said.

The U.S.′ ability to detect the virus was hampered in the early weeks by a test from the CDC that turned out to be faulty.

“The virus was able to get deeply rooted in our communities,” he added. “It was a historic failure.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 22, 2021, 04:05:22 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 22, 2021, 02:57:23 PM
from this article.................

But keep politics, as much as possible, out of it, added Slaoui, who resigned last week as chief adviser to Operation Warp Speed, the Trump administration’s effort to develop vaccines and drugs for Covid-19.

“We must never again politicize public health issues,” Slaoui said. “I am sure this has cost tens of thousands of lives.”

On government and industry
Both Slaoui and Borio, as well as former FDA Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb, who is now a CNBC contributor and board member of Pfizer and Illumina, said the first year of the pandemic demonstrated the importance of public-private partnerships and of acting on them quickly.

“The refusal of CDC to pivot early to engage commercial labs and commercial test kits left us blind to the early spread,” Gottlieb said.

The U.S.′ ability to detect the virus was hampered in the early weeks by a test from the CDC that turned out to be faulty.

“The virus was able to get deeply rooted in our communities,” he added. “It was a historic failure.”

aint hindsight great
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 22, 2021, 04:09:58 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 22, 2021, 04:05:22 PM
aint hindsight great
Yes. Yes it is.


(https://i.imgur.com/eq8rpTL.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 22, 2021, 04:13:05 PM
in hindsight..........

“We must never again politicize public health issues,” Slaoui said. “I am sure this has cost tens of thousands of lives.”

if something like this ever happens again...........

the entire world will politicize it  - probably worse than this time, if that's possible
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 22, 2021, 05:39:46 PM
I'm not sure I agree that "politics" cost tens of thousands of lives.

I don't know how one could quantify that with any precision at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 22, 2021, 08:24:03 PM
agreed

even if China and the WHO had warned the USA more sternly and earlier, it still may have had to run it's course as it's been doing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 22, 2021, 09:58:00 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 22, 2021, 05:39:46 PM
I'm not sure I agree that "politics" cost tens of thousands of lives.

I don't know how one could quantify that with any precision at all.
On that point I have two points

Amazon volunteered to help deploy the vaccine this was done to Biden not one word to Trump

The difference in lockdowns between the blue and the red states is amazing with little evidence the stricter approach is better
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on January 22, 2021, 10:08:43 PM
Second weekend of full club vball tournaments here in Indy.  I see IL may let them play at some point. I've heard rumors that some teams have been playing under the radar in both vball and hoops.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 23, 2021, 07:57:42 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 22, 2021, 08:24:03 PM
agreed

even if China and the WHO had warned the USA more sternly and earlier, it still may have had to run it's course as it's been doing
Had they told us about it in October 2019, we'd be in a lot better shape right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 23, 2021, 08:51:51 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 22, 2021, 08:24:03 PM
agreed

even if China and the WHO had warned the USA more sternly and earlier, it still may have had to run it's course as it's been doing
I don't consider that as "politics", and I agree with your conclusion.  I'm thinking more of US politics, e.g., had this other guy been in charge, would it have mattered?

Look at Europe.  Even Germany which was hailed as having done it right got hit hard.  

I think most of our east coast infections came from Europe, you recall how bad Italy was very early on.  We would have had to shut down ALL international travel to have delayed this, and even then, you'd have to force quarantine citizens returning.

Nobody handled it well outside perhaps some Asian countries and island nations.

Hawaii had a hard shutdown and it got into that state.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 23, 2021, 09:07:03 AM
@GopherRock (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=47) was in Italy early on in this thing, and his bride had the virus and came back. Had we known about this thing when it truly broke out, they probably would not have gone to Italy when they did.

Just one example.

Another example is me. I would not have travelled as extensively as I did from November to March had we known about this. I got it on a plane back from Florida, and likely gave it to many others before I knew I was sick.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 23, 2021, 09:33:45 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 23, 2021, 08:51:51 AM
Look at Europe.  Even Germany which was hailed as having done it right got hit hard. 
One of the ladies who volunteers at the Food Pantry is an immigrant/refugee from Germany after WWII.She has talked to family and said when their Government locks down they mean it.Evidently serious fines/time if you don't abide.I don't know about their numbers
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 23, 2021, 10:13:16 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 23, 2021, 07:57:42 AM
Had they told us about it in October 2019, we'd be in a lot better shape right now.
we may have kept the surge lower and had fewer cases overall.
Perhaps we could have kept cases numbers lower until the vaccine kicks in, but I don't know how much lower.
This virus seems to run it's course
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 23, 2021, 10:21:02 AM
Travel would have been curbed much earlier. That was a huge contributor and the CCP knew it would be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 23, 2021, 10:23:04 AM
agreed on both counts

it's just that travel would have still occurred and the virus would still got to the US and spread

just hard to know how much it would have helped

many NYC wouldn't have been nearly as bad early 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 23, 2021, 10:41:33 AM
Yeah, the spread seems to defy whatever anyone has done short of a draconian lockdown in an island nation like NZ.

And it could have been worse, easily.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 23, 2021, 10:44:27 AM
the latest 7 day moving average graph on new positives

(https://i.imgur.com/zWEZd91.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 23, 2021, 11:16:59 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 23, 2021, 10:23:04 AM
agreed on both counts

it's just that travel would have still occurred and the virus would still got to the US and spread

just hard to know how much it would have helped

many NYC wouldn't have been nearly as bad early
Not if there was a travel ban in place. If that happened in November or December, we'd be in MUCH better shape.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 23, 2021, 11:22:31 AM
I'm just saying, between the travel ban in November and now, the ban would have been lifted

regardless of who was in the white house
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 23, 2021, 11:32:49 AM
I lean to thinking about "area under the curve".  A travel ban of course won't apply to US citizens.  My neighbor had been in Egypt and made it back, he's a citizen of course.

This thing is too contagious, and I think "we" still don't fully understand the means of transmission.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 23, 2021, 11:35:52 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 23, 2021, 11:22:31 AM
I'm just saying, between the travel ban in November and now, the ban would have been lifted

regardless of who was in the white house
Still in place:


(https://i.imgur.com/VY9gTBf.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on January 23, 2021, 05:54:45 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 23, 2021, 09:07:03 AM
@GopherRock (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=47) was in Italy early on in this thing, and his bride had the virus and came back. Had we known about this thing when it truly broke out, they probably would not have gone to Italy when they did.

Just one example.

Another example is me. I would not have travelled as extensively as I did from November to March had we known about this. I got it on a plane back from Florida, and likely gave it to many others before I knew I was sick.
Without going into all the reasons why, the Mrs. and I were going to Italy in late December come hell or high water. This was our honeymoon, we had tickets to the night Mass on Christmas Eve at the Vatican, and most of the big stuff was booked long before some Patient Zero ate that bat at the Wuhan wet market. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 23, 2021, 06:34:33 PM
We still let citizens return, and some of them would have carried it.  The initial explosion would have been muted.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 23, 2021, 07:11:18 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 23, 2021, 06:34:33 PM
We still let citizens return, and some of them would have carried it.  The initial explosion would have been muted.


I think it would have just pushed right along the t-axis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 23, 2021, 10:06:27 PM
yes, I'd guess instead of having 25 million cases today, we might have only 20 million cases

hard to tell

we all probably agree the number would have been smaller - we could all argue about how much smaller
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 24, 2021, 09:07:23 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on January 23, 2021, 05:54:45 PM
Without going into all the reasons why, the Mrs. and I were going to Italy in late December come hell or high water. This was our honeymoon, we had tickets to the night Mass on Christmas Eve at the Vatican, and most of the big stuff was booked long before some Patient Zero ate that bat at the Wuhan wet market.
So, you would have travelled to Italy by sailboat, since air travel would have been closed. ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 24, 2021, 09:30:08 AM
URK, Netherlands (AP) — Rioting youths protesting on the first night of a Dutch curfew torched a coronavirus testing facility and threw fireworks at police in a Dutch fishing village.

Police said Sunday they fined more than 3,600 people nationwide for breaching the curfew that ran from 9 p.m. Saturday until 4:30 a.m. Sunday and arrested 25 people for breaching the curfew or for violence.

Video from the village of Urk, 80 kilometers (50 miles) northeast of Amsterdam, showed youths breaking into the coronavirus testing facility near the village’s harbor before it was set ablaze Saturday night.


https://apnews.com/article/netherlands-health-coronavirus-pandemic-riots-amsterdam-550ce0c260d45131181727fbf41e8340 (https://apnews.com/article/netherlands-health-coronavirus-pandemic-riots-amsterdam-550ce0c260d45131181727fbf41e8340)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on January 24, 2021, 10:33:28 AM
Opening five minutes of Friday's ABC World News Tonight spent on Covid:

News of the UK variant gets worse - “Britain's prime minister said today that they believe that this UK variant that we're now seeing here in the U.S. in at least 21 states tonight…it's not only much more contagious but it's also more deadly… British health officials citing early evidence suggesting it may be up to 30 percent deadlier but they're still investigating.”

Vaccination supply too low - “New York State will run out of vaccination shots by the end of today. Governor Cuomo saying tonight that a new shipment is on the way but it underscores the need to ramp up vaccine production…the state burning through 97 percent of its first doses and is expected to run out by the end of the day. More is on the way but the shortage is forcing 15 vaccination hubs to close for now.”

Wait, we need a SECOND dose? - “In New York City the mayor is asking the federal government for permission to use second doses as first doses… with a dwindling vaccine supply the CDC is now telling people there is some flexibility when a second dose can't be given on time.”

And now we're advised to wear TWO masks?? - “Scientists in the last 24 hours are now doubling down on masks in this country making sure that the mask you're wearing is effective, even suggesting an extra layer in some cases… more and more health experts are now suggesting wearing two masks in high risk situations like when you can't avoid a crowd or you're in close proximity with other people.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6b8z_zx893I
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 24, 2021, 10:57:00 AM
IF we had some very early wide scale travel ban, the initial case volume might have been low enough that we failed to take additional steps as well and then it spread even faster, different curve shape, same area.

Maybe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 24, 2021, 11:14:02 AM
we shall never know with any certainty 

but, many will proclaim they certainly know these things
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 24, 2021, 12:01:53 PM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on January 24, 2021, 10:33:28 AM
Opening five minutes of Friday's ABC World News Tonight spent on Covid:

News of the UK variant gets worse - “Britain's prime minister said today that they believe that this UK variant that we're now seeing here in the U.S. in at least 21 states tonight…it's not only much more contagious but it's also more deadly… British health officials citing early evidence suggesting it may be up to 30 percent deadlier but they're still investigating.”

Vaccination supply too low - “New York State will run out of vaccination shots by the end of today. Governor Cuomo saying tonight that a new shipment is on the way but it underscores the need to ramp up vaccine production…the state burning through 97 percent of its first doses and is expected to run out by the end of the day. More is on the way but the shortage is forcing 15 vaccination hubs to close for now.”

Wait, we need a SECOND dose? - “In New York City the mayor is asking the federal government for permission to use second doses as first doses… with a dwindling vaccine supply the CDC is now telling people there is some flexibility when a second dose can't be given on time.”

And now we're advised to wear TWO masks?? - “Scientists in the last 24 hours are now doubling down on masks in this country making sure that the mask you're wearing is effective, even suggesting an extra layer in some cases… more and more health experts are now suggesting wearing two masks in high risk situations like when you can't avoid a crowd or you're in close proximity with other people.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6b8z_zx893I

there is just no evidence of this in the US

New positives are decreasing at a decent rate and deaths may have crested

so lets save the panic until scientists tell us its time not ABC news
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 25, 2021, 07:12:15 AM
The decline in reported new cases in GA looks real now, from 7,000+ confirmed to under 5,500.

Immunity starting to kick in?  Almost 900,000 KNOWN cases, perhaps half the population has been immunized with one shot OR has had the virus, which is pretty amazing if true.  That would cut transmission rates.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2021, 08:12:22 AM
Could be that the combo of the vaccines and the vast number of people who've had it and didn't know it? 

Let's hope so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2021, 08:12:53 AM
Florida metrics (getting better):

(https://i.imgur.com/A6j22LV.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on January 25, 2021, 08:29:45 AM
Seems everywhere is hitting the downside of the curve. Hopefully the vaccine can help avoid a March spike.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 25, 2021, 08:42:25 AM
why would you expect a March surge?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 25, 2021, 08:43:09 AM
March Madness,Duh!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 25, 2021, 08:48:38 AM
TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — Chinese state media have stoked concerns about Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine, despite rigorous trials indicating it is safe. A government spokesperson has raised the unsubstantiated theory that the coronavirus could have emerged from a U.S. military lab, giving it more credence in China.

As the ruling Communist Party faces growing questioning about China’s vaccines and renewed criticism of its early COVID-19 response, it is hitting back by encouraging conspiracy theories that some experts say could cause harm.

State media and officials are sowing doubts about Western vaccines and the origin of the coronavirus in an apparent bid to deflect the attacks. Both issues are in the spotlight because of the rollout of vaccines globally and the recent arrival of a World Health Organization team in Wuhan, China, to investigate the origins of the virus.


https://apnews.com/article/pandemics-coronavirus-vaccine-media-coronavirus-pandemic-wuhan-65c6958bb2d8d22d811bb3d0c90f7418 (https://apnews.com/article/pandemics-coronavirus-vaccine-media-coronavirus-pandemic-wuhan-65c6958bb2d8d22d811bb3d0c90f7418)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 25, 2021, 08:53:37 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 25, 2021, 08:48:38 AM
TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — Chinese state media have stoked concerns about Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine, despite rigorous trials indicating it is safe. A government spokesperson has raised the unsubstantiated theory that the coronavirus could have emerged from a U.S. military lab, giving it more credence in China.

As the ruling Communist Party faces growing questioning about China’s vaccines and renewed criticism of its early COVID-19 response, it is hitting back by encouraging conspiracy theories that some experts say could cause harm.

State media and officials are sowing doubts about Western vaccines and the origin of the coronavirus in an apparent bid to deflect the attacks. Both issues are in the spotlight because of the rollout of vaccines globally and the recent arrival of a World Health Organization team in Wuhan, China, to investigate the origins of the virus.


https://apnews.com/article/pandemics-coronavirus-vaccine-media-coronavirus-pandemic-wuhan-65c6958bb2d8d22d811bb3d0c90f7418 (https://apnews.com/article/pandemics-coronavirus-vaccine-media-coronavirus-pandemic-wuhan-65c6958bb2d8d22d811bb3d0c90f7418)

(https://i.imgur.com/THwT3M2.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 25, 2021, 08:57:11 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 25, 2021, 08:53:37 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/THwT3M2.png)
  (https://media.tenor.com/images/32bacce37ab96b986e71cf10538a3b96/tenor.gif)     
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2021, 08:58:01 AM
Nuke China?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2021, 09:00:10 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 25, 2021, 08:42:25 AM
why would you expect a March surge?
Spring Break maybe? I don't know what people are doing for that. I'll be staying clear of Sarasota and Fort Myers though. That's where the big beaches are around here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 25, 2021, 09:02:52 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on January 25, 2021, 08:57:11 AM
  (https://media.tenor.com/images/32bacce37ab96b986e71cf10538a3b96/tenor.gif)   

That's the one I tried to load first but the animation didn't come through.

But yeah, I think JLaw's response is the most appropriate to China's lies and propaganda.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 25, 2021, 09:04:32 AM
In completely unrelated news, my Chinese vendors have further decommitted on their Q1 supply commits.  It's down to less than half.


But yeah, there's nothing weird going on over there.


Edit: Oh, and they're now beginning to decommit on Q2 and Q3 also.  But yeah, nothing to see here, these aren't the droids you're looking for, move along.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2021, 09:06:16 AM
Yep, nothing to see there.

Meanwhile, it takes forever to get any furniture right now. I guess that tells us where it's all made - and that needs to stop.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 25, 2021, 09:09:40 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2021, 09:06:16 AM
Yep, nothing to see there.

Meanwhile, it takes forever to get any furniture right now. I guess that tells us where it's all made - and that needs to stop.
Yup.  Most people know about the consumer electronics, but furniture, flooring, construction materials-- so much of it is produced in China, that we're seeing huge shortages now.

I've been trying to get a set of Ikea Pax wardrobes for 2 months now.  I hear they may be in stock in late February.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 25, 2021, 09:22:43 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2021, 09:06:16 AM
Yep, nothing to see there.

Meanwhile, it takes forever to get any furniture right now. I guess that tells us where it's all made - and that needs to stop.
Really,how much wood can they freakin' have?So it's sent over,made and sent back for cheaper than we can do it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2021, 09:33:34 AM
China has plenty of wood, and certainly has no problem cutting it down.

Plus, a lot of furniture is synthetic now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 25, 2021, 09:43:53 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2021, 09:33:34 AM
China has plenty of wood, and certainly has no problem cutting it down.

Plus, a lot of furniture is synthetic now.

True, but Mr. N is also correct-- for flooring and furniture that is built with American-specific species, we cut down the logs, ship them to China where they are processed into finished goods, and then they are shipped back.

Not really the most environmentally conscientious process, to be sure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 25, 2021, 09:46:07 AM
I would guess the basic lumber items are made here or in Canada.  Higher end labor intensive stuff could be made where there is cheap labor, like Thailand.

We still make a LOT of paper in the US also.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on January 25, 2021, 09:50:07 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 25, 2021, 08:42:25 AM
why would you expect a March surge?
Just looking at the lines of past pandemics - a fall winter wave and then a winter spring wave seems to be consistent before bubbling out.  Getting the vaccine out between now and March seems like a pretty critical path.   I'm not sure what are realistic targets on that - though if we got everyone over say 65 vaccinated by then it would seem to limit fatalities even if it doesn't limit actual infections as much.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 25, 2021, 09:59:12 AM
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research - Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations)

The US is at a million a day right now and headed higher.

It has not been as fast as we'd like, but it's happening, even without some "plan".  We have 25 million KNOWN infections.  I think herd immunity is beginning to be a factor in transmission.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 25, 2021, 11:51:23 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2021, 09:06:16 AM
Yep, nothing to see there.

Meanwhile, it takes forever to get any furniture right now. I guess that tells us where it's all made - and that needs to stop.
Just ordered a new sofa and chair for the living room... It was build-to-order due to fabric selection.

Quoted 16-18 weeks for delivery.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 25, 2021, 11:54:07 AM
Furniture stores near us are full of inventory and running sales like crazy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 25, 2021, 12:02:06 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 25, 2021, 09:59:12 AM
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research - Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations)

The US is at a million a day right now and headed higher.

It has not been as fast as we'd like, but it's happening, even without some "plan".  We have 25 million KNOWN infections.  I think herd immunity is beginning to be a factor in transmission.
Yeah, I think we're now starting to get a lot closer. I'm not one that believes that the number of unknown infections is as large as some, but even with a small multiplier like 3x or 4x known infections we'd be close to 100M. That's 30% of the nation. We're adding millions already who have received their 2nd dose of the vaccine as well, of which there's probably some overlap with previous infections but we're making progress there. 

It's not herd immunity, but it may be reducing R0 as the virus is finding fewer and fewer non-immune hosts to infect. Especially since I'm sure the demographics of infections (known or unknown) has high variance demographically--the people driving spread (people who often gathered with others) might have much higher infection rates than others, so spread could be reducing particularly in those demographics.

Of course we're also out of the holiday season now, so my prediction was that people would continue to gather through Thanksgiving and Christmas because of social pressure, but might "shut it down" in January and February. That could explain some of the declines as well. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 25, 2021, 12:10:48 PM
It's not technically immunity as usually defined, but the levels of immunity can start to reach the point where R naught drops.  We COULD be where a third of the nation is resistant/immune.  So, if an infected person might have passed it on to three people, now it's two people.

And R naught is thought  to be slightly above 1.0, generally, so it doesn't take a lot to drop to 0.9. 

I hope.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 25, 2021, 12:18:19 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 25, 2021, 11:54:07 AM
Furniture stores near us are full of inventory and running sales like crazy.
Aren't they always?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 25, 2021, 12:19:42 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 25, 2021, 12:10:48 PM
It's not technically immunity as usually defined, but the levels of immunity can start to reach the point where R naught drops.  We COULD be where a third of the nation is resistant/immune.  So, if an infected person might have passed it on to three people, now it's two people.

And R naught is thought  to be slightly above 1.0, generally, so it doesn't take a lot to drop to 0.9.

I hope.
Well, after 863 pages of pseudo-science and hope, where's it gotten us?  420,000 dead people and the highest rates yet.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2021, 12:22:25 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 25, 2021, 12:18:19 PM
Aren't they always?
Yep. Stores around here also have a lot of inventory. Inventory nobody wants. For example:


(https://i.imgur.com/o661Wyk.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2021, 12:26:26 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 25, 2021, 12:19:42 PM
Well, after 863 pages of pseudo-science and hope, where's it gotten us?  420,000 dead people and the highest rates yet. 
97 percent survival rate. Would be 98 if not for NY and NJ.

Data for the whole world (not including China, of course):


(https://i.imgur.com/MBWQEz1.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on January 25, 2021, 12:32:40 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on January 25, 2021, 08:29:45 AM
Seems everywhere is hitting the downside of the curve. Hopefully the vaccine can help avoid a March spike.


This is true all across the major "covid markets" of the world. Daily cases and deaths counts appear to be cresting, even in the "variant" hit UK which until last weak was experiencing increasing daily death counts.

(https://i.imgur.com/VUjYoi2.png)


(https://i.imgur.com/5Zh4X92.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 25, 2021, 12:51:11 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 25, 2021, 12:19:42 PM
Well, after 863 pages of pseudo-science and hope, where's it gotten us?  420,000 dead people and the highest rates yet. 
I have found useful discussion and information on this thread often.  The number of people who died is obviously out of our control, and the rates appear to be declining now.

If there has been pseudo-science posted, I didn't see it, and it likely was called out.

But it's easy to sit in the back row and throw out the occasional irrelevant quip and criticism without contributing  anything.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 25, 2021, 01:19:35 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 25, 2021, 12:51:11 PM
I have found useful discussion and information on this thread often.  The number of people who died is obviously out of our control, and the rates appear to be declining now.

If there has been pseudo-science posted, I didn't see it, and it likely was called out.

But it's easy to sit in the back row and throw out the occasional irrelevant quip and criticism without contributing  anything.
some folks just aint happy until everyone around them is as miserable as they are

they scowl at good news and rejoice at failures

they offer no good thoughts just gloom and doom

what a sad life they must lead
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2021, 01:46:23 PM
Most of the news coming out in the past week has been pretty positive overall.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on January 25, 2021, 01:46:34 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 25, 2021, 12:51:11 PM
If there has been pseudo-science posted, I didn't see it, and it likely was called out.

But it's easy to sit in the back row and throw out the occasional irrelevant quip and criticism without contributing  anything.
One thing that I appreciate about this forum is that while we can (and frequently do) disagree about how to interpret data/info, we all agree that the source info must be good and won't put up with bad sources and pseudo-science.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 25, 2021, 01:53:05 PM
Well, I've found it useful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 25, 2021, 01:56:36 PM
This thread has been much better than others I frequent on this subject, on other forums.  That's the main reason I've tried to keep it clear of devolving into political shit-slinging.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 25, 2021, 02:05:24 PM
I'm in the Northwest corner of the state of Iowa, bordering Nebraska and South Dakota

It appears South Dakota and Nebraska are ahead of Iowa in the quest to vaccinate.

Obviously, Nebraska and South Dakota have fewer folks to vaccinate, but both are now signing up folks over 65.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 25, 2021, 02:15:40 PM
West Virginia appears to be leading the pack in vaccinations

who'd a thought
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2021, 02:28:09 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 25, 2021, 02:15:40 PM
West Virginia appears to be leading the pack in vaccinations

who'd a thought
COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker | jacksonville.com (https://data.jacksonville.com/covid-19-vaccine-tracker/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2021, 04:43:55 PM
This could be really good.

International team finds new, more effective drug to treat COVID-19 (jsonline.com) (https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2021/01/25/international-team-finds-new-more-effective-drug-treat-covid-19/6673529002/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 25, 2021, 06:14:17 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2021, 01:46:23 PM
Most of the news coming out in the past week has been pretty positive overall.
Well until you had to start rubbing in that $300,000 thing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 25, 2021, 09:47:02 PM
wrong thread
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on January 25, 2021, 11:57:08 PM
Wife a little worn down after dose 2.  Of course that could be related to her 415am wake time and it being 830pm.    
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 26, 2021, 08:35:48 AM
more coffee

hope it doesn't last long
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on January 26, 2021, 08:37:27 AM
So since my dad's death I have been pretty much the primary care taker for my mom.  This past Sunday I took her to church for the first time since the funeral.  It wasn't really all that packed, maybe 75-100 people in a building that usually holds 2-300.  Nobody, and I mean nobody, was wearing any masks or really doing social distancing.  Hands were being shaked, hugs exchanged, etc.  I was kinda weird to be in such a large crowd where nobody wore masks.  Even at my dad's funeral, in this same building, a large portion of the attendants were wearing masks.  Having already had covid I'm not really scared anymore, and I know that a good amount of people there probably had it as well, including mom.  I know there have been several large outbreaks at area churches.  Not sure why but it seems that there is a real backlash against wearing masks at religious activities.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 26, 2021, 08:42:29 AM
I haven't been to church since COVID hit

one wedding reception, no funerals

I consider myself a religious man, but I guess I don't feel that need to worship in large groups
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 26, 2021, 08:56:42 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 26, 2021, 08:42:29 AM
I haven't been to church since COVID hit

one wedding reception, no funerals

I consider myself a religious man, but I guess I don't feel that need to worship in large groups

We've done online.  It's good enough for me and I can wear my PJs and slippers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 26, 2021, 08:57:22 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 26, 2021, 08:42:29 AM
I haven't been to church since COVID hit,one wedding reception, no funerals
Avoided 2 funerals as they were large gatherings and moving forward I had to be around people who are in the susceptible catagory.Didn't want to take chances some one deemed frail could get it from me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 26, 2021, 08:58:29 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 26, 2021, 08:56:42 AM
We've done online.  It's good enough for me and I can wear my PJs and slippers.
And toss back a little Tito's to get in the Spirit
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 26, 2021, 09:25:51 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on January 26, 2021, 08:57:22 AM
Avoided 2 funerals as they were large gatherings and moving forward I had to be around people who are in the susceptible catagory.Didn't want to take chances some one deemed frail could get it from me.
I always avoid funerals

I don't need the free lunch like my ex-father-in-law
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 26, 2021, 09:36:56 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on January 26, 2021, 08:58:29 AM
And toss back a little Tito's to get in the Spirit

Nah I always run on Sunday mornings after church.  That's my "long run" day so no partaking beforehand.

But when I finish, yeah, a little OJ and Vitamin T is always a good call.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 26, 2021, 09:38:24 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 26, 2021, 09:36:56 AM
Nah I always run on Sunday mornings after church.  That's my "long run" day so no partaking beforehand.

But when I finish, yeah, a little OJ and Vitamin T is always a good call.
Helps your T cells.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 26, 2021, 10:03:51 AM
Exactement


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 26, 2021, 10:37:08 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 26, 2021, 09:25:51 AM
I always avoid funerals

I don't need the free lunch like my ex-father-in-law
Ya I don't feel like eating in those circumstances.A cup of Joe or two and I'm out the door
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on January 26, 2021, 11:22:25 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on January 25, 2021, 01:46:34 PM
One thing that I appreciate about this forum is that while we can (and frequently do) disagree about how to interpret data/info, we all agree that the source info must be good and won't put up with bad sources and pseudo-science.



The interpretations and projections of data discussed on this thread are more levelheaded than most anything from the supposed TV experts.

For some more data interpretation of the lighter variety, see below:

Though Iran's Daily Case & Death totals have been dubious due to poor tracking and filtered news, the consistencies of reported numbers are worth a look. Both Daily Cases counts and Daily Death counts have flatlined, with the flatlining of the Death counts lagging at two weeks from the Case counts as expected.

Note the Daily Case counts have flatlined at just above 6000 while the Daily Death Counts have flatlined at *about* 85.

That's about 85 deaths per 6000 cases. Do the math (85/6000) and the numbers indicate about 1.4% of cases result in death.

Does this percentage fit with what we're seeing in the U.S.? And Elsewhere? I'm guessing it's generally closer to 2%?

(https://i.imgur.com/tuRXBVi.png)


(https://i.imgur.com/rGdBIkb.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 26, 2021, 11:26:37 AM
Depends on how they classify deaths. You can get run over by a truck here, and if you test positive for Covid, that's what you died from.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on January 26, 2021, 11:48:59 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 26, 2021, 08:42:29 AM
I haven't been to church since COVID hit

one wedding reception, no funerals

I consider myself a religious man, but I guess I don't feel that need to worship in large groups
My Church has two services.  First one, mask required, no sitting near anyone except family members.  The second services is outside for those who don't feel comfortable indoors. 

I tried the online services, just not the same. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 26, 2021, 12:10:50 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 26, 2021, 11:26:37 AM
Depends on how they classify deaths. You can get run over by a truck here, and if you test positive for Covid, that's what you died from.
See, that's just misinformation. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 26, 2021, 12:15:33 PM
not from what I've been told
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 26, 2021, 12:20:05 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on January 26, 2021, 12:10:50 PM
See, that's just misinformation.
That's the reaction I was looking for. :86:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 26, 2021, 12:21:01 PM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on January 26, 2021, 11:22:25 AM


The interpretations and projections of data discussed on this thread are more levelheaded than most anything from the supposed TV experts.

For some more data interpretation of the lighter variety, see below:

Though Iran's Daily Case & Death totals have been dubious due to poor tracking and filtered news, the consistencies of reported numbers are worth a look. Both Daily Cases counts and Daily Death counts have flatlined, with the flatlining of the Death counts lagging at two weeks from the Case counts as expected.

Note the Daily Case counts have flatlined at just above 6000 while the Daily Death Counts have flatlined at *about* 85.

That's about 85 deaths per 6000 cases. Do the math (85/6000) and the numbers indicate about 1.4% of cases result in death.

Does this percentage fit with what we're seeing in the U.S.? And Elsewhere? I'm guessing it's generally closer to 2%?



Right now in the US its around 1.56% using data going back to June 2020
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 26, 2021, 01:21:19 PM
The man who oversaw the worst worldwide pandemic in more than a 100 years is not only the highest paid doctor in the U.S. government, he is highest paid among 4 million U.S. federal employees, according to Forbes.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, 80, who recently disparaged former President Donald Trump in his first White House briefing under President Joe Biden, made a U.S.-high $417,608 in 2019 as the nation's leading infectious disease expert, per the report.


____________________________________________

probably got a decent raise in 2020

Dude should be plenty happy
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 26, 2021, 01:23:39 PM
That really isn't an enormous salary for someone with his qualifications and time in grade.

Do you know the highest paid state employee in most states?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 26, 2021, 01:36:22 PM
football coach
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 26, 2021, 01:39:11 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 26, 2021, 01:21:19 PM
The man who oversaw the worst worldwide pandemic in more than a 100 years is not only the highest paid doctor in the U.S. government, he is highest paid among 4 million U.S. federal employees, according to Forbes.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, 80, who recently disparaged former President Donald Trump in his first White House briefing under President Joe Biden, made a U.S.-high $417,608 in 2019 as the nation's leading infectious disease expert, per the report.
so, if you include state governments in the U.S. Government............ any football coach with a doctorate, such as Doctor Tom Osborne, dwarf his salary
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 26, 2021, 01:53:53 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 26, 2021, 01:21:19 PM
The man who oversaw the worst worldwide pandemic in more than a 100 years is not only the highest paid doctor in the U.S. government, he is highest paid among 4 million U.S. federal employees, according to Forbes.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, 80, who recently disparaged former President Donald Trump in his first White House briefing under President Joe Biden, made a U.S.-high $417,608 in 2019 as the nation's leading infectious disease expert, per the report.


____________________________________________

probably got a decent raise in 2020

Dude should be plenty happy
I'm sorry, but this is garbage.
The guy had a noose around his neck every time he spoke publicly.  To criticize him is to put your head in the sand about the orange gameshow host standing behind him.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 26, 2021, 02:01:17 PM
I would guess a doctor with his credentials in private practice could be making well into 7 figures.

Or at least similarly extensive credentials, he might need a different specialty.

I would be willing to suffer that level of criticism for that much pay.

Anyway, we should keep this thread clean of politics and stick to observations and new information about COVID.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 26, 2021, 02:10:21 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 26, 2021, 02:01:17 PM
I would guess a doctor with his credentials in private practice could be making well into 7 figures.
Lot of Phsicians leaving private practice because of the over head and managing a small business becomes a job unto itself - additional headaches
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 26, 2021, 02:16:47 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 26, 2021, 01:53:53 PM
I'm sorry, but this is garbage.
The guy had a noose around his neck every time he spoke publicly.  To criticize him is to put your head in the sand about the orange gameshow host standing behind him.
I can't find anything critical in that statement.  and I looked
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 26, 2021, 02:19:26 PM
The good news is that the numbers continue to come down in the US, mostly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 26, 2021, 03:07:59 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 26, 2021, 02:19:26 PM
The good news is that the numbers continue to come down in the US, mostly.
Yep. Even here in CA.

Downtrend in cases started about 12 days ago, so another week to 10 days we should see deaths take a big turn down too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 26, 2021, 03:13:19 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 26, 2021, 02:16:47 PM
I can't find anything critical in that statement.  and I looked
Yeah, I have no idea how the original statement, and the response, are linked?

Odd.

Anyway, Austin is looking a little better now too.  Cases peaked on 1/13 and have been trending down for the past couple weeks.  And now hospitalizations and ICU are trending down as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 27, 2021, 08:43:08 AM
https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/vaccine-prioritization-mistake-why-are-we-doling-out-doses-health-status

Mostly a summary of the difficulty of handing out doses strictly according to health status.  Their conclusion is that it's mostly folly to attempt to do so (I don't completely agree) and that the criteria for vaccinating should be simplified and minimized (I do agree with that idea).

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 27, 2021, 12:11:48 PM
folks should have priority, but... if not enough of those are stepping forward, get the vaccine into the next group of arms
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 27, 2021, 12:19:46 PM
Where my wife was vaccinated was a Charlie Foxtrot, but I was thinking about how complicated this whole thing really is and no one has done it before at this scale.

Other countries are having similar issues, Israel has done well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2021, 07:39:49 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/aGBniwB.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 28, 2021, 10:08:28 AM
so, the US is winning in the race to heard immunity
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2021, 10:10:15 AM
It seems reasonable the percentage of the population here now with some resistance is of consequence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 28, 2021, 10:44:39 AM
I think we can conservatively say that we've had 3 times as many cases as reported. I think the number is higher than that, but let's say it's 3.

25,600,000 reported cases => 76,800,000 actual cases. Combine that with (coincidentally) 25,600,000 vaccinations and we have 102,400,000 with some sort of immunity.

We're truly getting there. If we can hit that 100,000,000 shot target, I'd say we're home free.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 28, 2021, 10:53:45 AM
we were saying this stuff back in June

I wont feel better till at least 1 third of us get vaccinated
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 28, 2021, 10:58:54 AM
I just purchased tickets to a concert in mid-May.  It's outdoors and set up for limited capacity, but it'll still be several hundred people.  It'll be the first relatively large public "gathering" of any kind I'll attend since December 2019.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 28, 2021, 10:59:28 AM
I conservatively estimate that 1/3 of us have immunity. Be happy. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 28, 2021, 11:18:09 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 28, 2021, 10:59:28 AM
I conservatively estimate that 1/3 of us have immunity. Be happy.
then Im conservatively happy

Ill be liberally happy when 1 third of us have been vaccinated
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 28, 2021, 12:46:29 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 28, 2021, 10:08:28 AM
so, the US is winning in the race to heard immunity
why not we got the most heifers
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 28, 2021, 03:51:26 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 28, 2021, 10:44:39 AM
I think we can conservatively say that we've had 3 times as many cases as reported. I think the number is higher than that, but let's say it's 3.

25,600,000 reported cases => 76,800,000 actual cases. Combine that with (coincidentally) 25,600,000 vaccinations and we have 102,400,000 with some sort of immunity.

We're truly getting there. If we can hit that 100,000,000 shot target, I'd say we're home free.
https://www.foxnews.com/

Shocker.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 28, 2021, 03:58:23 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on January 28, 2021, 03:51:26 PM
https://www.foxnews.com/

Shocker. 
I saw this but didnt mention it cause I didnt want anyone to know I follow Fox News so I wont be cancelled
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 28, 2021, 04:12:27 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 28, 2021, 03:58:23 PM
I saw this but didnt mention it cause I didnt want anyone to know I follow Fox News so I wont be cancelled
You had no choice to see it there because you won’t find it on any of the other MSM outlets. 
censored out
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 28, 2021, 04:22:12 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on January 28, 2021, 03:51:26 PM
https://www.foxnews.com/

Shocker. 
I'm confused. You linked to the Fox News home page, not an individual story...

So I've got no clue which thing on their home page I'm supposed to be looking at?

Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 28, 2021, 10:44:39 AM
I think we can conservatively say that we've had 3 times as many cases as reported. I think the number is higher than that, but let's say it's 3.

25,600,000 reported cases => 76,800,000 actual cases. Combine that with (coincidentally) 25,600,000 vaccinations and we have 102,400,000 with some sort of immunity.

We're truly getting there. If we can hit that 100,000,000 shot target, I'd say we're home free.
Too hard to really try to pin down numbers due to asymptomatic cases, but I'm fully comfortable with this being more than in the ballpark.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 28, 2021, 04:27:56 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on January 28, 2021, 04:22:12 PM
I'm confused. You linked to the Fox News home page, not an individual story...

So I've got no clue which thing on their home page I'm supposed to be looking at?

The thing on top.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 28, 2021, 04:33:36 PM
This thing?

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ny-undercounted-nursing-home-deaths-by-as-much-as-50-state-ag-says

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 28, 2021, 04:40:00 PM
Yeah.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 28, 2021, 04:44:53 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 28, 2021, 04:33:36 PM
This thing?

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ny-undercounted-nursing-home-deaths-by-as-much-as-50-state-ag-says


but, the hospitals counted those deaths as COVID?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2021, 04:47:33 PM
CNN reported the story, but it was kind of buried.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2021, 05:19:29 PM
Investigation: Cuomo Team Undercounted N.Y. COVID-19 Nursing Home Deaths : Coronavirus Updates : NPR (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/01/28/961637249/investigation-cuomo-team-undercounted-n-y-covid-19-nursing-home-deaths)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 28, 2021, 06:26:25 PM
The NY AG is investigating this
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 29, 2021, 09:08:21 AM
Home (illinoiscovid.org) (https://illinoiscovid.org/)

Interesting website by UC, NU and UI.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 29, 2021, 05:13:16 PM
https://siouxlandnews.com/news/nation-world/questions-arise-over-cdc-guidance-on-covid-19-vaccines?utm_source=second-street&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Siouxland+News+afternoon+headlines+1%2f29 (https://siouxlandnews.com/news/nation-world/questions-arise-over-cdc-guidance-on-covid-19-vaccines?utm_source=second-street&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Siouxland+News+afternoon+headlines+1%2f29)

WASHINGTON (SBG) — Like a lot of Americans, Congressman Thomas Massie (R-Kentucky) already had coronavirus and, last December, he wanted to know if he should still get a Covid vaccine. Most everyone who’s had Covid-19 is considered immune. But how long immunity lasts is unknown—whether it’s after infection or vaccination.

An award-winning scientist himself, Massie quickly found that vaccine studies showed no benefit to people who’ve had coronavirus. Vaccination didn’t change their odds of getting reinfected.

The controversy began when he noticed something strange: the CDC was claiming the exact opposite.

CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices had just issued a high profile report authored by 15 scientists. It wrongly claimed Pfizer’s study proved the vaccine is highly effective or showed “Consistent high efficacy” for people who’d already had coronavirus—“SARS-CoV 2.”


“That sentence is wrong,” Rep. Massie told me. There is no efficacy demonstrated in the Pfizer trial among participants with evidence of previous SARS, co V two infection.. and actually there's no proof in the Moderna trial either.”

Massie says CDC’s information, claiming studies show the vaccines help people previously infected with coronavirus, could be costing lives. That’s because he says people who at low risk of infection may be getting precious doses of vaccine when those at high risk aren’t able to get them.

The mystery deepened when Massie contacted CDC for an explanation. He says top CDC officials and scientists stalled, obfuscated, apologized, and finally agreed to change the misinformation.

But he says CDC replaced the information with language that’s equally misleading.

CDC officials did not respond our request for interviews and information. In calls with Massie several CDC officials acknowledged that “given that there’s limited doses right now, we’re suggesting that [people previously infected] wait.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 30, 2021, 09:33:34 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/ZIMX5hn.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 30, 2021, 09:57:36 AM
Almost 30 Million doses in the US now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 30, 2021, 10:11:12 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 30, 2021, 09:57:36 AM
Almost 30 Million doses in the US now.
2 or 3 more months at this rate we will start to see herd immunity
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 30, 2021, 10:21:27 AM
we all hope and pray
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 30, 2021, 10:23:10 AM
I think we are starting to see it already, in some places.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 30, 2021, 10:38:07 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 30, 2021, 10:23:10 AM
I think we are starting to see it already, in some places.
its possible or its just the ebb and flow of this virus
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on January 30, 2021, 12:00:46 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 30, 2021, 10:38:07 AM
its possible or its just the ebb and flow of this virus

If we're getting past the virus what can it be attributed to? Vaccines and herd immunity?

And if not is it because of the half dozen mutant strains going around?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 30, 2021, 12:01:53 PM
Best guess is partial herd immunity and some vaccines.

The ebb and flow of this makes little sense to me really.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 30, 2021, 12:04:11 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/Q7JllAi.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 30, 2021, 12:04:41 PM
Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm)

The good news is influenza is unusually low this year, which was expected of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 30, 2021, 03:27:09 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/qFtzO5N.png)

WI:

(https://i.imgur.com/lPHn1x8.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 30, 2021, 03:28:37 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/EOyxPJa.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 30, 2021, 03:30:26 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/97PHJ1I.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 30, 2021, 04:22:06 PM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on January 30, 2021, 12:00:46 PM
If we're getting past the virus what can it be attributed to? Vaccines and herd immunity?

And if not is it because of the half dozen mutant strains going around?
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 30, 2021, 12:01:53 PM
Best guess is partial herd immunity and some vaccines.

The ebb and flow of this makes little sense to me really.
Slowdown after everyone shut down the gatherings once the holidays ended?

Coupled with getting closer to herd immunity in the populations (young people, etc) that never paid attention to lockdowns anyway?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 30, 2021, 06:06:14 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 30, 2021, 12:04:41 PM
Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm)

The good news is influenza is unusually low this year, which was expected of course.
Yeah, there's about 400,000 fewer potential victims.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 30, 2021, 09:37:12 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/xJkKOYS.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 31, 2021, 08:16:22 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 30, 2021, 12:04:41 PM
Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm)

The good news is influenza is unusually low this year, which was expected of course.
Is it really low or much of it being attributed to the CCP virus?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2021, 08:35:18 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 30, 2021, 06:06:14 PM
Yeah, there's about 400,000 fewer potential victims.
The reduction in US population is 400,000/327 million, on any percentage basis not something that can possibly impact the number of people who contracted the flu.

The reduction in flu this year is attributed to more folks getting the vaccine (it wasn't a huge bump), the vaccine being more effective, and distancing, maybe the latter is the big factor.

Flu transmission is likely very similar to COVID transmission and enough people are avoiding large gatherings to cut flu transmission.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 31, 2021, 09:14:19 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 30, 2021, 06:06:14 PM
Yeah, there's about 400,000 fewer potential victims.
(https://i.imgur.com/pI7eXZj.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2021, 09:17:28 AM
To assert that fewer people get the flu now because 400,000 died is pandering of course, silliness of the first order.

And there is no one here susceptible to that level of pandering anyway.

The flu season is dramatically low, and that's a good thing.  We can see 50,000 deaths due to flu in a season, rough average, usually older folks.  That doesn't offset 400,000 of course, it's just a comment that at least one bad thing is less bad than usual.

I wonder at times how many would have died of COVID if we let the scientists manage things entirely.  I don't know of course, but it's probably not much less than what happened.  We probably would not have put recovering COVID patients in nursing homes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 31, 2021, 09:37:37 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 31, 2021, 09:17:28 AM
To assert that fewer people get the flu now because 400,000 died is pandering of course, silliness of the first order.

And there is no one here susceptible to that level of pandering anyway.

The flu season is dramatically low, and that's a good thing.  We can see 50,000 deaths due to flu in a season, rough average, usually older folks.  That doesn't offset 400,000 of course, it's just a comment that at least one bad thing is less bad than usual.

I wonder at times how many would have died of COVID if we let the scientists manage things entirely.  I don't know of course, but it's probably not much less than what happened.  We probably would not have put recovering COVID patients in nursing homes.
"We" didn't.

If we had, we'd all be Emmy winners.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on January 31, 2021, 10:05:23 AM
With federal leadership effectively nonexistent over the last year, it's tough to say.  My thought would be clearer goals and plans so it's not just everyone somewhat randomly coming up with their own plans.  Schools especially have been all over the place.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 31, 2021, 10:14:52 AM
pretty sure the states are random enough to come up with their own plans regardless of federal leadership

I don't see how a decent percentage of cases and/or deaths could have been prevented by the Feds unless drastic measures to shut down the entire country  were forced on states
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 31, 2021, 10:16:00 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on January 31, 2021, 10:05:23 AM
With federal leadership effectively nonexistent over the last year, it's tough to say.  My thought would be clearer goals and plans so it's not just everyone somewhat randomly coming up with their own plans.  Schools especially have been all over the place. 
Except, well...


See more on cdc.gov (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/long-term-care.html)




Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 31, 2021, 10:17:03 AM
It's all Cuomo's fault, obv. :96:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 31, 2021, 10:18:49 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on January 31, 2021, 10:05:23 AM
With federal leadership effectively nonexistent over the last year, it's tough to say.  My thought would be clearer goals and plans so it's not just everyone somewhat randomly coming up with their own plans.  Schools especially have been all over the place. 
This is a state matter and there has been all the federal leadership legally possible

What federal leadership changes has the new President instituted 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2021, 10:19:34 AM
The fact that Trump dominated the "news" at the beginning doesn't mean there wasn't Federal advice obviously.  I am pondering a situation where the President said little about it and how that might have changed "area under the curve".  I think the situation would have been better, at least optically, but the area might have ended up about the same place.  His comments about various treatments took the limelight, but there was good advice that got submerged in the reportage.

It's not as if Biden has some new plan either.  We just don't have Trump saying his gig.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 31, 2021, 10:22:45 AM
Biden's new message is to wear masks for 100 days

I'm quite sure this will have a great effect
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 31, 2021, 10:28:17 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on January 31, 2021, 10:05:23 AM
With federal leadership effectively nonexistent over the last year, it's tough to say.  My thought would be clearer goals and plans so it's not just everyone somewhat randomly coming up with their own plans.  Schools especially have been all over the place. 

What changes would you have suggested on schools?  If #FollowTheScience is so monumentally important-- and I certainly believe it is-- then "the science" from local, regional, national, and global evidence, is clear that in-school transmission is minimal, and at schools grades K-8 almost nonexistent. 

So if the previous presidential administration had mandated that all schools in all states be open for 100% in-person learning, how do you think the state governments in... say... California, NY, etc. would have taken it?

Not to mention that such a mandate isn't even legal, nor should it be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2021, 10:28:57 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 31, 2021, 10:22:45 AM
Biden's new message is to wear masks for 100 days

I'm quite sure this will have a great effect
We have been told to wear a mask for months now of course.  It's common where I live.  My main complaint about Trump in this field was how his utterances would dominate the news cycle and submerged real advice that was also provided.  But without that, I think the virus would largely have run its course about the same.

One can look at the European experience and see how the virus takes off even if countries are centrally controlled and "listening  to scientists".
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2021, 10:30:05 AM
AS for schools, look at France.  They had an economic shutdown but kept schools open and their new cases went from over 50,000 to under 10,000 very quickly.

It's back up now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 31, 2021, 10:31:55 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 31, 2021, 10:28:17 AM
What changes would you have suggested on schools?  The science from local, regional, national, and global evidence, is clear that in-school transmission is minimal, and at schools grades K-8 almost nonexistent. 

So if the previous presidential administration had mandated that all schools in all states be open, how do you think the state governments in... say... California, NY, etc. would have taken it?

Not to mention that such a mandate isn't even legal, nor should it be.
I know in Chicago, the Mayor is all about having schools open.

The union is what is keeping schools closed. The union president is the real "boss" in Chicago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 31, 2021, 10:38:10 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 31, 2021, 10:31:55 AM
I know in Chicago, the Mayor is all about having schools open.

The union is what is keeping schools closed. The union president is the real "boss" in Chicago.
Well that certainly surprises... no one. :)

In Texico there is a teacher's union but it's pretty weak. Which is also unsurprising.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on January 31, 2021, 10:44:15 AM
To take a look at another major "Covid Market," earlier this week Mexico passed up India for the world's third most Covid deaths; 158K Vs India's 154K total.

Though fortunately the trends appear peaking during the latter half of this week, going into this past week Mexico, along with the UK, was the last major "Covid Market" where the three growth factors - Daily Cases, Active Cases, and Daily Deaths - were all still increasing.

(https://i.imgur.com/B3Apfd8.png)




(https://i.imgur.com/vsG9uM9.png)


(https://i.imgur.com/2Z6k9nS.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 31, 2021, 10:45:21 AM
Guess I'm gonna cancel that trip I had planned to Playa del Carmen next week...

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on January 31, 2021, 10:50:03 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 31, 2021, 10:28:17 AM
What changes would you have suggested on schools?  If #FollowTheScience is so monumentally important-- and I certainly believe it is-- then "the science" from local, regional, national, and global evidence, is clear that in-school transmission is minimal, and at schools grades K-8 almost nonexistent. 

So if the previous presidential administration had mandated that all schools in all states be open for 100% in-person learning, how do you think the state governments in... say... California, NY, etc. would have taken it?

Not to mention that such a mandate isn't even legal, nor should it be.
I don't think mandates are especially popular or effective.  What had been missing was leadership telling people that this is bad, we have to make tough decisions, and we have to choose what we value most.  That approach would have been more effective (and more popular).  Given the lack of effect on children, the lack of spread in schools, and the value of education, focusing on that would give people a center on where to focus on this (and also keep kids in school).  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 31, 2021, 10:53:34 AM
I think the media could have shaped the "message" as much as "leadership" for what was good for the country, but the media is also guilty of the wrong message
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on January 31, 2021, 10:58:30 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 31, 2021, 10:53:34 AM
I think the media could have shaped the "message" as much as "leadership" for what was good for the country, but the media is also guilty of the wrong message
Sure, but the media is thousands of entities. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2021, 11:04:33 AM
I think we realized this was bad in late March, whatever leadership may have said.  How that made anything "more effective" is not clear  to me.

I really am not sure that this mythical leadership of another kind would have made much difference on the ground.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on January 31, 2021, 11:17:19 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 31, 2021, 11:04:33 AM
I think we realized this was bad in late March, whatever leadership may have said.  How that made anything "more effective" is not clear  to me.

I really am not sure that this mythical leadership of another kind would have made much difference on the ground.
Pretty clear to me that effective leadership tends to be better than ineffective leadership, but who can know for sure. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2021, 11:20:08 AM
The term "effective leadership" is subject to opinion.

In my view, a lot of mistakes were made, some by governors, at least in hindsight.

My POINT is there is no evidence that different messenging would have made much difference.  Europe has also been hit hard.

And we see no change from Biden over what Trump did, some flowery words, and I'm glad at least he's not speaking about it.  But the course of the pandemic is set.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 31, 2021, 11:22:20 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on January 31, 2021, 10:58:30 AM
Sure, but the media is thousands of entities.
the major media outlets, NBC, ABC, CBS, FOX, CNN could have focused on the important part of the message instead of things such as "bleach injections"

but, they chose not too
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 31, 2021, 11:23:50 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 31, 2021, 11:22:20 AM
the major media outlets, NBC, ABC, CBS, FOX, CNN could have focused on the important part of the message instead of things such as "bleach injections"

but, they chose not too
they still arent
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on January 31, 2021, 11:27:43 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 31, 2021, 11:04:33 AM
I think we realized this was bad in late March, whatever leadership may have said.  How that made anything "more effective" is not clear  to me.

I really am not sure that this mythical leadership of another kind would have made much difference on the ground.
But you yourself mentioned France's kids were in school. As they are in many places. So I'm not seeing evidence that leadership makes no difference.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 31, 2021, 11:30:05 AM
kids in school or out of school makes no difference

kids aren't spreading the virus
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 31, 2021, 11:32:28 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on January 31, 2021, 11:27:43 AM
But you yourself mentioned France's kids were in school. As they are in many places. So I'm not seeing evidence that leadership makes no difference.
Kids are in school in Texas and Florida.

They aren't elsewhere.

Our school systems aren't operated by the Federal government, nor should they be.  Federalism is one of our many strengths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 31, 2021, 11:32:43 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on January 31, 2021, 11:27:43 AM
But you yourself mentioned France's kids were in school. As they are in many places. So I'm not seeing evidence that leadership makes no difference.
The federal gov does not "run" our schools

State and local gov does
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2021, 11:33:39 AM
I'm talking about area  under the curve.  Whatever European countries have tried they appear to end up with the same area under the curve.  Asian and African countries have had a different experience, often with very limited central leadership.

Germany has had a PhD in charge and they have suffered.

The experience in Asia is fascinating and hard to explain other than masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 31, 2021, 11:39:57 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on January 31, 2021, 11:27:43 AM
But you yourself mentioned France's kids were in school. As they are in many places. So I'm not seeing evidence that leadership makes no difference.
Yes, leadership is making a difference.


Column: CTU’s Sharkey for mayor? Why not, isn’t he already the boss? - Chicago Tribune (https://www.chicagotribune.com/columns/john-kass/ct-chicago-teachers-union-kass-20210129-yfeefuoujnfvhlw2gnm36krfmq-story.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on January 31, 2021, 11:39:58 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 31, 2021, 11:32:28 AM
Kids are in school in Texas and Florida.

They aren't elsewhere.

Our school systems aren't operated by the Federal government, nor should they be.  Federalism is one of our many strengths.
Right, I'm not talking about forcing schools or anyone else to do anything. I'm talking about setting goals and explaining these goals to the public.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 31, 2021, 11:41:18 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on January 31, 2021, 11:39:58 AM
Right, I'm not talking about forcing schools or anyone else to do anything. I'm talking about setting goals and explaining these goals to the public.
The CDC has done this. So has Anthony Fauci.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on January 31, 2021, 11:47:41 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 31, 2021, 11:41:18 AM
The CDC has done this. So has Anthony Fauci.
So has the WHO.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 31, 2021, 11:48:55 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on January 31, 2021, 11:39:58 AM
Right, I'm not talking about forcing schools or anyone else to do anything. I'm talking about setting goals and explaining these goals to the public.
The #FollowTheScience #OMGIT'sTheScience crowd in those states STILL aren't willing to open up the schools despite many months of evidence with scores of millions of kids around the globe.

So how would any kind of "effective leadership message" from the previous administration have changed their views?  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on January 31, 2021, 11:52:59 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 31, 2021, 11:48:55 AM
The #FollowTheScience #OMGIT'sTheScience crowd in those states STILL aren't willing to open up the schools despite many months of evidence with scores of millions of kids around the globe.

So how would any kind of "effective leadership message" from the previous administration have changed their views? 
There has been a much clearer commitment to opening up schools here in the past couple weeks, though obviously it's a bit apples and oranges due to the vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 31, 2021, 12:00:10 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on January 31, 2021, 11:52:59 AM
There has been a much clearer commitment to opening up schools here in the past couple weeks, though obviously it's a bit apples and oranges due to the vaccine.

Trump was stating quite openly back in the summer that he thought schools should be open, and was urging the states to reopen schools in-person for the new schoolyear.

So if it took the removal of Trump, before some states would make a "clearer commitment" toward doing exactly what he'd been asking them to do for the past 8 months, then that's an indication that NO AMOUNT of Federal direction was going to make them follow that course of action, as long as it was the course recommended by Trump.

Here's just one link to his statements back in July:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/trump-pushes-to-reopen-schools-says-closures-will-probably-cause-more-death.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 31, 2021, 12:03:07 PM
You're really arguing yourself in circles here Max.

You're asking for clear direction from the Federal Leadsership, and you specifically mentioned schools as being a particular problem.

Yet the former president was making clear statements suggesting ALL schools should reopen in-person, 8 months ago.  

So... which is it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on January 31, 2021, 12:09:37 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 31, 2021, 12:03:07 PM
You're really arguing yourself in circles here Max.

You're asking for clear direction from the Federal Leadsership, and you specifically mentioned schools as being a particular problem.

Yet the former president was making clear statements suggesting ALL schools should reopen in-person, 8 months ago. 

So... which is it?
Well, I don't think the former president was at all known for making clear or believable statements on nearly any aspect of this pandemic. Not trying to create some political drama though don't think it's very controversial to state the former president was not known for staying on message.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 31, 2021, 12:11:19 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on January 31, 2021, 11:39:58 AM
Right, I'm not talking about forcing schools or anyone else to do anything. I'm talking about setting goals and explaining these goals to the public.
setting goals and explaining goals are fine, but actually doing something is the needed follow through

similar to climate change, some folks have set goals and tried to explain them, but...............
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 31, 2021, 12:12:41 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on January 31, 2021, 12:09:37 PM
Well, I don't think the former president was at all known for making clear or believable statements on nearly any aspect of this pandemic. Not trying to create some political drama though don't think it's very controversial to state the former president was not known for staying on message.
this is true
some just don't feel that simply staying on message would have helped much
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 31, 2021, 12:26:02 PM
the first thing our new Pres did was to tell us how bad it was going to be

great leadership
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2021, 12:35:20 PM
I believe the area under the curve would have been about the same no matter who was President and who said whatever as President.  It could have been less ... colorful, which I would have preferred.

Resultwise, hard to see much difference.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 31, 2021, 01:25:52 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 31, 2021, 12:35:20 PM
I believe the area under the curve would have been about the same no matter who was President and who said whatever as President.  It could have been less ... colorful, which I would have preferred.

Resultwise, hard to see much difference.


Yeah agree with all of this.  I would have preferred less color.  Ultimately I don't think actions at the state level would have been any different, and results wouldn't have been any different.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 31, 2021, 01:58:18 PM
My issue is that it's hard to credit someone who has been consistently one direction ideologically, and then crediting that person when their ideological stance just HAPPENS to line up with the data.



And of course everything turned political, so nobody trusted anything from anyone.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 31, 2021, 02:23:49 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on January 31, 2021, 01:58:18 PM
My issue is that it's hard to credit someone who has been consistently one direction ideologically, and then crediting that person when their ideological stance just HAPPENS to line up with the data.


  • POTUS, for example, gets credit by some for shutting down travel from China. He's spent the last four years trying to stick his thumb into China's eye, so I hardly call this a courageous stance when literally everything else he did was downplay the virus. Likewise, he pushed for opening up schools, but let's face it, he wanted to open up EVERYTHING. So I find it hard to believe we should credit him for calling to open up schools and take him seriously as if suddenly he's following the science.
  • On the opposite side I look at Newsom. Newsom's response was aggressive, but then he became a petty tyrant of "let's close it down" at every whiff of anything. He seemed to do this without good explanation or scientific reasoning other than "shut everything down" all the time. He didn't have control over gatherings, so he used the only too at his disposal, and shut down commerce even when many of the things he was shutting down weren't actual drivers of transmission.

And of course everything turned political, so nobody trusted anything from anyone.


dont have to worry bout that now that our new pres in on China's payroll
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 31, 2021, 02:54:10 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on January 31, 2021, 01:58:18 PM
My issue is that it's hard to credit someone who has been consistently one direction ideologically, and then crediting that person when their ideological stance just HAPPENS to line up with the data.


  • POTUS, for example, gets credit by some for shutting down travel from China. He's spent the last four years trying to stick his thumb into China's eye, so I hardly call this a courageous stance when literally everything else he did was downplay the virus. Likewise, he pushed for opening up schools, but let's face it, he wanted to open up EVERYTHING. So I find it hard to believe we should credit him for calling to open up schools and take him seriously as if suddenly he's following the science.
  • On the opposite side I look at Newsom. Newsom's response was aggressive, but then he became a petty tyrant of "let's close it down" at every whiff of anything. He seemed to do this without good explanation or scientific reasoning other than "shut everything down" all the time. He didn't have control over gatherings, so he used the only too at his disposal, and shut down commerce even when many of the things he was shutting down weren't actual drivers of transmission.

And of course everything turned political, so nobody trusted anything from anyone.


politicians did what they do.  try to garner votes
the scientists didn't have a clear consistent message on this because they couldn't figure it out.
Scientists, Medical experts, politicians, and other "leaders" all around the world failed to effectively curb the virus.

some may have done a slightly better job than others, but the virus is the clear winner

regardless of medicine, science, politics or clear consistent messages
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2021, 02:56:43 PM
The Asian countries have done a much better job and I'd like to understand why.  It is less prevalent in Africa as well, if the records are to be believed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 31, 2021, 03:03:07 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 31, 2021, 02:56:43 PM
The Asian countries have done a much better job and I'd like to understand why.  It is less prevalent in Africa as well, if the records are to be believed.
Which Asian countries?  South Korea looks to have done well.  Japan did early on but we know they were falsely reporting to try to save the Olympics.  Then they sort of trued it up, then they had a third wave about the same time as most other countries.

The data from China is completely crap and therefore irrelevant.

And as for Africa, I doubt they're bothering to track it that closely, outside of the larger more affluent countries like South Africa.  But the middle of that continent is riddled by so many other diseases and generally poor health conditions that kill at much higher rates, I don't think they're going out of their way to track cases or deaths from a disease that initially presents as a bad flu. I doubt they're doing much testing at all.

Maybe it's not affecting Africa much, but there's no real reason to believe that's the case.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 31, 2021, 03:10:00 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 31, 2021, 02:56:43 PM
The Asian countries have done a much better job and I'd like to understand why.  It is less prevalent in Africa as well, if the records are to be believed.
Sans China I think you mean - IMO unfortunately more of those poor folks prolly took one for the team

EDIT: 94 beat me to it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2021, 03:25:36 PM
Of fairly developed Asian countries,  South Korea, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand (I include them as part of Asia even though they aren't).  The best European country is apparently Finland at 8,157 cases per million.

Australia is 1,122.  Is that solely because they are an island continent?  Maybe.  South Korea is kind of an island in a sense.

Indications are that it is not running rampant through southern Africa which one might have expected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 31, 2021, 05:08:47 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 31, 2021, 03:25:36 PM
Indications are that it is not running rampant through southern Africa which one might have expected.

How would we know with all the other problems and afflictions.I suspect their ability to gather accurate information  is suspect
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2021, 05:12:10 PM
Information from Africa is suspect in detail, but I think were it running rampant it would be noticed.  We get reports of various attacks and calamities from Africa, we know when other diseases break out, I think if COVID were really bad it would show up more than it has.

Maybe countries like South Korea have managed simply by managing influx of visitors aggressively, which they can do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 31, 2021, 05:32:32 PM
perhaps not as many are travelling to Africa during a pandemic for various reasons?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2021, 07:50:12 PM
I don't know, which is why I said it merits looking into.  It could be the virus is raging there and we don't know it.

It also may be that island nations can control it more easily for obvious reasons.  It would be masks are quite beneficial.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2021, 08:04:20 PM
I think it's pretty clear that aside from Trump's terrible messenging at times, the US didn't somehow do something, or fail to do something, that made this worse.

The messenging was a distraction, nothing else.  We were gonna get hit hard no matter what.  The most brilliant technical President could not have done better, though the nursing home situations does raise an eyebrow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 31, 2021, 08:13:04 PM
I can't imagine leaving someone that had COVID and could infect others in a nursing home

I also can't imagine sending someone that could infect others back from a hospital to the nursing home for the only reasoning that there's no room for them in the hospital!

WTF?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on January 31, 2021, 08:13:34 PM
Pretty sure my kids school district which opened in August didn't give two squirts who the President was and what messenging he sent.   Some were apoplectic about the decision  to reopen in class instruction and many of those folks were quick to come back to school following their 10 weeks of virtual.     The Executive branch and who is President occupies way too much bandwidth in the average adult person's brain.  I love federalism for this, among many other reasons. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 31, 2021, 10:43:57 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 31, 2021, 05:12:10 PM
Information from Africa is suspect in detail, but I think were it running rampant it would be noticed.  We get reports of various attacks and calamities from Africa, we know when other diseases break out, I think if COVID were really bad it would show up more than it has.

Maybe countries like South Korea have managed simply by managing influx of visitors aggressively, which they can do.

I don't.  I think that although it's a global pandemic, it's just not much of anything compared to everything else that's going on there.  Seriously, something that kills less than 2% of who it infects, just doesn't move the needle in the middle of the African continent.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 01, 2021, 08:11:31 AM
That could well be the case.  Maybe they get sick in Africa often and just tough it out, but they also have some massive cities.

Are the Asian countries doing well because of masks and control of visitation?

Visitation control doesn't work in Europe, and not well here, a few slip though.  Even Hawaii got hit.

I think no matter who was President this would have been bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 01, 2021, 09:55:13 AM
Agree.  Human nature, or at least human nature among Western countries, is what it is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 01, 2021, 10:07:00 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/W0FvYkk.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on February 01, 2021, 10:17:13 AM
Taking a look at California, I didn't realize how much harder Southern California (particularly LA metro) was hit with cases/deaths than their Bay Area neighbors, which closer follows the trendlines of Portland and Seattle. 

For the first image, note just how much LA County stands out with almost a fourth of California's population accounting for about 40% of Covid Deaths. For as high as LA County's death toll is, their population sitting right at 10.0 Mil yields 16,600 Deaths/Mil, which, to compare nationally, ranks LA County's Death/Mil value at around 12th or 13th among the states. And still not nearly as high as the well over 2,000 Deaths/Mil values among the equivalently dense urban populations of New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts.


(https://i.imgur.com/lNlKTjV.png)


(https://i.imgur.com/KFKf8sr.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 01, 2021, 10:23:13 AM
Seems to me that California needs to be on lockdown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 01, 2021, 10:33:58 AM
just LA

the city of Angels
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 01, 2021, 10:44:50 AM
Wife getting second vaccine now
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 01, 2021, 11:13:21 AM
Let us know how it goes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 01, 2021, 11:52:31 AM
Is it possible Southern California's problems result from visitors from Mexico?

In Texas our border counties have a much higher positive rate
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 01, 2021, 01:40:44 PM
We stopped by Costco and walked around and drove back home, she's unpacking now.  I told her to rest a bit, she says she's fine.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 01, 2021, 01:59:31 PM
My i s c & a aggie wife should be getting the second shot in a couple weeks.  It should have been pretty close to right now, but unsurprisingly, our various layers of bureaucracy have resulted in some mild chaos and confusion.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 01, 2021, 02:01:33 PM
my golf partner's father is 95

hoping to hear this week, when he might be able to get on the list

slower than shit, IMO
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 01, 2021, 02:20:56 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 01, 2021, 02:01:33 PM
my golf partner's father is 95

hoping to hear this week, when he might be able to get on the list

slower than shit, IMO
if he was in prison he'd get it right away
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 01, 2021, 03:04:34 PM
maybe not in Iowa
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2021, 08:12:06 AM
Sweden update:  Things are improving after a peak around Christmas in new cases.

They have 566,000 REPORTED cases and a 10 million population.  If we multiple that by 5X, obviously we have 25% of the country with resistance due to having the disease, still short of herd but perhaps enough to slow the spread some.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2021, 09:44:06 AM
Georgia is approaching a million known/suspected cases now, ten percent of the population.  If you use a 5x multiplier, you start to near herd I.  Maybe.

Known cases are dropping rapidly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 02, 2021, 10:06:29 AM
WOODBURY COUNTY, Iowa — There is some good news to share in the fight against COVID-19 in Woodbury County.

The Siouxland District Health Department is reporting its lowest positivity rate since April 2020 in its latest data trend report.

A county's positivity rate is determined by taking the total number of positive tests that come out of the total tests done in the county over a two-week time period.

In the latest report, SDHD shows a positivity rate of 5.5% in Woodbury County for the week ending January 24.


over 13,000 cases population 100,000
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on February 02, 2021, 10:36:45 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on February 01, 2021, 11:52:31 AM
Is it possible Southern California's problems result from visitors from Mexico?

In Texas our border counties have a much higher positive rate





Along with Mexico/Southern California, Portugal happens to be another distinct area where daily cases/deaths are still peaking despite the past few weeks of globally declining Daily Cases, Active Cases, and Daily Deaths.

From CNN International (Video Below): "Portugal, now closing its borders for two weeks...its nationwide lockdown has been extended to February 14th and officials say that hospitals don't have much space left.”

And here's a key point for the number of us, after all the discussion of masks and distancing, who've recently noted "We were gonna get hit hard no matter what" (@Cincydawg (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=870)): "For a country that mastered the first wave of Covid 19, this is an alarming site. An epidemic so ferocious the ICU wards are overwhelmed…Across the country the hospitals are struggling to cope with the rapid surge in cases with doctors telling CNN they estimate 25% of new cases have been caused by the variant discovered in the UK."

Keep in mind Portugal was one of the nations widely praised through the summer and into the fall for keeping cases low and deaths under 2500, that is until November. I quote @Cincydawg (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=870) because I'm also of the sense that, wave after wave, eventually Covid's relentless spread would break through previously successful health precautions (see Germany too).




(https://i.imgur.com/NDxdvVQ.png)



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vf-kIEe3fp4

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 02, 2021, 08:25:21 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 01, 2021, 01:59:31 PM
My i s c & a aggie wife should be getting the second shot in a couple weeks.  It should have been pretty close to right now, but unsurprisingly, our various layers of bureaucracy have resulted in some mild chaos and confusion.


https://rumble.com/vctx45-covid-and-the-vaccine.html

At the very least- food for thought.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 03, 2021, 08:43:45 AM
56 minutes?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 03, 2021, 09:24:39 AM
That's better than 60 minutes!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 03, 2021, 10:15:47 AM
10 seconds

just enough time to switch channels 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 03, 2021, 10:18:31 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 03, 2021, 08:43:45 AM
56 minutes?
Worth your time to think about the questions being asked.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 03, 2021, 10:18:40 AM
Georgia is almost down to the July peak, less than half the December peak.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 03, 2021, 10:29:41 AM
Chicago-area father speaks out after son's suicide, says lockdowns 'devastating' for young people | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/health/chicago-father-committed-suicide-coronavirus-restrictions)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 03, 2021, 11:17:35 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on February 03, 2021, 10:18:31 AM
Worth your time to think about the questions being asked. 
I might find the time Thursday evening

work until 4:30 today and then wings and beer at the bar tonight
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 03, 2021, 12:05:13 PM
Final figures aren't yet in, but preliminary numbers show (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm) 2020 is on track to become the deadliest year in U.S. history, with more than 3.2 million totaldeaths – about 400,000 more than 2019 – a sharp increase that public health experts attribute to COVID-19 and aligns with reported deaths from the disease. 
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 2,835,533 U.S. deaths in 2019. Before the pandemic, models projected a slightly higher number, about 2.9 million deaths, for 2020, said Dr. Jeremy Faust, an emergency physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital.
It’s not a coincidence, he said, that the 400,000 excess deaths closely resemble the number of coronavirus deaths in the U.S., which reached 401,796 as of Wednesday, according to Johns Hopkins data. (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html)


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 03, 2021, 12:32:53 PM
Covid-19 data - Tracking covid-19 excess deaths across countries | Graphic detail | The Economist (https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker)

(https://i.imgur.com/yU4a83u.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 03, 2021, 12:45:53 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 03, 2021, 10:29:41 AM
Chicago-area father speaks out after son's suicide, says lockdowns 'devastating' for young people | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/health/chicago-father-committed-suicide-coronavirus-restrictions)

Thumbs up for the point being made not the actual event.A twisted soul or 2 on this board think lockdowns aren't a problem and should be further enforced to shackle the congregation.Course they usually have Gubmint positions
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 03, 2021, 01:01:14 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 03, 2021, 12:05:13 PM
Final figures aren't yet in, but preliminary numbers show (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm) 2020 is on track to become the deadliest year in U.S. history, with more than 3.2 million totaldeaths – about 400,000 more than 2019 – a sharp increase that public health experts attribute to COVID-19 and aligns with reported deaths from the disease.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 2,835,533 U.S. deaths in 2019. Before the pandemic, models projected a slightly higher number, about 2.9 million deaths, for 2020, said Dr. Jeremy Faust, an emergency physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital.
It’s not a coincidence, he said, that the 400,000 excess deaths closely resemble the number of coronavirus deaths in the U.S., which reached 401,796 as of Wednesday, according to Johns Hopkins data. (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html)



so, COVID isn't a hoax?  Good to know
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 03, 2021, 01:02:50 PM
I still see that being argued here and there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 03, 2021, 01:17:09 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 03, 2021, 01:02:50 PM
I still see that being argued here and there.
Heard it from my brother a week and a half ago. Claimed that the same number of people were dying as before. 

As you can imagine, I quickly disabused him of that misinformation. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 03, 2021, 01:21:00 PM
Wasn't that your estranged brother? Maybe try that again. Heh.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 03, 2021, 01:21:48 PM
does anyone know the current flu deaths this year to date and whether its above or below normal
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 03, 2021, 01:26:41 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on February 03, 2021, 01:21:48 PM
does anyone know the current flu deaths this year to date and whether its above or below normal
I don't have this information nationally, but this is current data from Florida on residents in critical care. These are weekly numbers.


(https://i.imgur.com/g5A0NYj.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 03, 2021, 01:27:49 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 03, 2021, 01:21:00 PM
Wasn't that your estranged brother? Maybe try that again. Heh.
LOL... 


Quote from: longhorn320 on February 03, 2021, 01:21:48 PM
does anyone know the current flu deaths this year to date and whether its above or below normal
Check the CDC... https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

Flu in general is much lower than normal. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 03, 2021, 01:43:20 PM
hopefully, deaths in general will be much lower than normal in 2022
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 03, 2021, 01:43:57 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on February 03, 2021, 01:27:49 PM
LOL...

Check the CDC... https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

Flu in general is much lower than normal.
Yeah, and badge thinks it's just because 3 or 4 extra people got the shot this year, rather than the widespread shutdown of mass gatherings, mask-mandates, social distancing, and all that other jazz.







;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 03, 2021, 01:46:13 PM
pot stirrer
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 03, 2021, 01:52:02 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 03, 2021, 01:43:57 PM
Yeah, and badge thinks it's just because 3 or 4 extra people got the shot this year, rather than the widespread shutdown of mass gatherings, mask-mandates, social distancing, and all that other jazz.

;)
I thought it was that our immune systems were just too crowded with getting COVID 2-3 times each ;-) 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 03, 2021, 02:07:06 PM
It's complicated for sure. Lots of people did get shots this season. It's possible this season's variant is not as severe as normal, and yes, it is possible that those of us who have had CV are also immune to flu symptoms.

This could also be a major part of it. Those who are most susceptible to flu death were killed by CV.

(https://i.imgur.com/VTSJX58.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/4fevfca.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 03, 2021, 03:02:31 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 03, 2021, 02:07:06 PM
It's complicated for sure. Lots of people did get shots this season. It's possible this season's variant is not as severe as normal, and yes, it is possible that those of us who have had CV are also immune to flu symptoms.

This could also be a major part of it. Those who are most susceptible to flu death were killed by CV.

Don't think so... Maybe immune to coronavirus variants of the common cold, but I don't know of any mechanism that would make someone who had COVID immune to influenza, which is a completely different family of viruses. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 03, 2021, 03:50:56 PM
I understand that part, but the flu kills a lot of our older population too. It's all about the immune system.

(https://i.imgur.com/IoiArpb.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 03, 2021, 06:17:28 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on February 03, 2021, 01:52:02 PM
I thought it was that our immune systems were just too crowded with getting COVID 2-3 times each ;-)
It's times like these when I wish this site had other reaction buttons, besides the Thumbs Up.   'Cause I definitely woulda given this one the old: :86:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 04, 2021, 08:49:46 AM
I just noticed that at the recent peak, the positivity rate in Georgia was 20%.  Yup, twenty.  One in five people tested were positive.

Ouch.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 04, 2021, 09:52:44 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 04, 2021, 08:49:46 AM
I just noticed that at the recent peak, the positivity rate in Georgia was 20%.  Yup, twenty.  One in five people tested were positive.

Ouch.
the population of those being tested is folks having symptoms so its not as bad as it sounds
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 04, 2021, 10:00:23 AM
Quote from: utee94 on February 03, 2021, 06:17:28 PM
It's times like these when I wish this site had other reaction buttons, besides the Thumbs Up.  'Cause I definitely woulda given this one the old: :86:
So says the guy who said we'd never have a vaccine.


:57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 04, 2021, 10:18:36 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 04, 2021, 10:00:23 AM
So says the guy who said we'd never have a vaccine.


:57:
I said we'd never have an effective vaccine.

And we still have no idea if we will, or not.  We won't know for another year or so.

I was including in that expectation, the potential for mutated strains that the vaccine is not effective at countering. 

Only time will tell but we certainly have no data to show we're there yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 04, 2021, 10:32:04 AM
You're not buying the fact that the vaccines have been determined to be 95% effective?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 04, 2021, 10:49:08 AM
If producing a vaccine that quickly was something we can just routinely do, then why don't we do it all the time?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 04, 2021, 10:56:38 AM
Who are you asking?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 04, 2021, 11:10:00 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 04, 2021, 10:32:04 AM
You're not buying the fact that the vaccines have been determined to be 95% effective?

Well, no, I'm not.  They were under trial conditions.  Are they in the field?  We don't know.

Beyond that, are they as effective against the mutated strains?  Some early signs are positive, but we don't know, and won't know, for a while.

Beyond that, even if they're effective against the current mutated strains, are they effective against the next set of mutated strains?  We certainly don't know that, and we won't know that, for months/years.

So yeah, it's kinda like trying to go for the victory dunk with 3 minutes gone in the first period.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 04, 2021, 11:14:23 AM
OK. I'm all in. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 04, 2021, 11:21:35 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 04, 2021, 11:14:23 AM
OK. I'm all in.
if we keep administering vaccines at 1.3 million each day we will start reaching herd immunity by May or June
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 04, 2021, 11:25:12 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 04, 2021, 10:49:08 AM
If producing a vaccine that quickly was something we can just routinely do, then why don't we do it all the time?
It's not routine at all. 

That's like asking if Usain Bolt can run a 100m race in 10 seconds, why can't he run a 400m race in 40 seconds and a 5K in 500 seconds?

The FDA has a LOT going on at any given point. They have a queue of a ton of different medicines, vaccines, etc under review all the time. There's various bureaucracy and check points in the process, things have to wait their turn, and all in all it can take a while. 

For this, my understanding is that no "corners were cut" regarding safety protocols and testing. What sped it through so quickly is that ALL of the queuing and process delays which would normally be there is what was cut. It got put as priority #1 on the FDA review list, ahead of anything else in the queue. 

That's how it got through so quickly. It got pushed to the front of the line ahead of anything else, which is only done in extreme circumstances (such as a worldwide pandemic that has killed >450K Americans). 

BTW on top of that, one of the advantages of this type of vaccine is that the mRNA concept by itself carries certain lower risks than other vaccines. Traditional vaccines often use attenuated or dead virus cells, and those cells often need to be grown in a lab. This carries a risk because there's a chance you can actually contract the disease from the vaccine if something goes wrong--that's impossible with this design. In addition, it doesn't need to be "grown" in living cells, so there's another benefit for production. That's why they said that they had the vaccine produced for testing within something like a week to a month from having the virus DNA sequenced. 

So we can't just "routinely" do something like this... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 04, 2021, 11:31:48 AM
Very good explaination.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 04, 2021, 11:56:18 AM
We could "routinely" do one treatment that way of course, but everything else would be delayed as a result.

I'm hopeful the mRNA approach will be more broadly used.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 04, 2021, 03:49:22 PM
Top 10:

(https://i.imgur.com/8XOUJLB.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 04, 2021, 04:30:48 PM
Interesting.

Plant-based antiviral drug may help beat COVID-19, research shows | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/health/plant-based-antiviral-drug-covid-19-research)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 04, 2021, 06:08:15 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 04, 2021, 11:10:00 AM
Well, no, I'm not.  They were under trial conditions.  Are they in the field?  We don't know.

Beyond that, are they as effective against the mutated strains?  Some early signs are positive, but we don't know, and won't know, for a while.

Beyond that, even if they're effective against the current mutated strains, are they effective against the next set of mutated strains?  We certainly don't know that, and we won't know that, for months/years.

So yeah, it's kinda like trying to go for the victory dunk with 3 minutes gone in the first period.
This only scratches the surface of what we don’t know about this experimental vaccine. 

Short term outcomes for the last attempt at a coronavirus vaccine were allegedly good too, but the mid and long term were very bad. 

There are questions to be answered about long term side effects, fertility, duration of efficacy and on and on.  Also/ there is no proof it slows transmission- only hope. This is huge. 

there obviously has not been enough time and experience to test all this.

The trouble is already brewing- as many people look at the survival rates for Covid- and are not compelled to take what could be a greater risk of the vaccine.  There are corporate and political conversations already out there about making it mandatory for an employee, or for air travel. 

This will get ugly and unfortunately already political.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 05, 2021, 08:59:01 AM
It got politicized immediately, and polarizing.

Just what the CCP wanted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 05, 2021, 09:27:44 AM
The best vaccine news is that they all appear to keep everyone out of the hospital.

If this can be downgraded to a cold type illness, we're in good shape, even if folks contract it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 05, 2021, 10:25:18 AM
The latest news is Johnson & Johnson is coming out with a 1 shot only vaccine they have asked for

emergency passage from the FDA
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 05, 2021, 10:41:52 AM
We need AstraZeneca to gain approval here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 05, 2021, 10:50:46 AM
I still find these "waves" very peculiar.  Georgia continues to drop fast in every category from the recent peak.

Bump in March, larger bump in late July that faded, and then double that bump in Dec/Jan that peaked Jan. 12, now down 50% in less than a month.

Holiday transmissions?  Maybe.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 05, 2021, 11:22:48 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on February 05, 2021, 10:25:18 AM
The latest news is Johnson & Johnson is coming out with a 1 shot only vaccine they have asked for

emergency passage from the FDA
I had heard that the effectiveness of the J&J was significantly lower than Pfizer and Moderna. 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/02/04/johnson-johnson-requests-fda-authorization-its-covid-19-vaccine/4331329001/

While more options are a good thing, I'd rather wait for Moderna than rush to get the J&J.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 05, 2021, 11:41:19 AM
I heard J&J's effectiveness got better as time passed after getting the shot
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 05, 2021, 01:40:47 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 05, 2021, 10:50:46 AM
I still find these "waves" very peculiar.  Georgia continues to drop fast in every category from the recent peak.

Bump in March, larger bump in late July that faded, and then double that bump in Dec/Jan that peaked Jan. 12, now down 50% in less than a month.

Holiday transmissions?  Maybe.


The whole nation is dropping
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 05, 2021, 02:13:40 PM
https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1357018834394316801
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 05, 2021, 03:41:13 PM
apparently, they just figured this out in the past week or so
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 05, 2021, 03:46:44 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 05, 2021, 11:41:19 AM
I heard J&J's effectiveness got better as time passed after getting the shot
I heard JB shots(Jim Beam) were much more effective
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 05, 2021, 03:51:30 PM
(https://i.etsystatic.com/13952472/r/il/6838f5/2402916221/il_794xN.2402916221_c79h.jpg)

I've had this a few times, it's been over 25 years

It's not my favorite
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 05, 2021, 03:54:24 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 05, 2021, 03:41:13 PM
apparently, they just figured this out in the past week or so
Sounds reasonable but the Principal,secretary,bus drivers and maintenance crews are screwed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 05, 2021, 03:56:31 PM
the school staffs here in Iowa all got their shots already


there are plenty of folks 90 years old and above still waiting
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 05, 2021, 04:00:39 PM
The Expendables
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 05, 2021, 04:23:54 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 05, 2021, 02:13:40 PM
https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1357018834394316801

Meanwhile...

Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot gives 'final offer' to avoid Chicago Teachers Union strike over school reopening - Chicago Tribune
 (https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-cps-ctu-school-reopening-final-offer-teachers-union-20210205-hspjtjtwtbguffijg274nztw2i-story.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 05, 2021, 04:24:02 PM
I read that Iowa is the 3rd worst state in terms of percentage vaccinated.

sending shots to the the District Health Department doesn't seem efficient.

send them to the private sector and git R done!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 05, 2021, 04:50:52 PM
Grocery stores and pharmacies are vaccinating here.

(https://i.imgur.com/V8Q9PQT.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 05, 2021, 04:53:03 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 05, 2021, 04:50:52 PM
Grocery stores and pharmacies are vaccinating here.

(https://i.imgur.com/V8Q9PQT.png)
California and Georgia numbers are clearly bunk...

In both states, there are people who are fully vaccinated, meaning they've had two doses. Therefore the "number of people receiving at least one dose" cannot be equal to the total doses administered.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 05, 2021, 04:56:32 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 05, 2021, 04:50:52 PM
Grocery stores and pharmacies are vaccinating here.

novel idea
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 05, 2021, 05:21:00 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on February 05, 2021, 04:53:03 PM
California and Georgia numbers are clearly bunk...

In both states, there are people who are fully vaccinated, meaning they've had two doses. Therefore the "number of people receiving at least one dose" cannot be equal to the total doses administered.

Yeah, I don't know why they are not keeping track of that like most other states are. Seems lazy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 05, 2021, 06:36:52 PM
restaurants in Cali not allowed to have the Super Bowl on TVs
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 05, 2021, 06:40:43 PM
I'm sure they'll all fall in line behind that.If the Gov't says they are open for business they can watch what they want :96:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on February 05, 2021, 06:54:14 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on February 05, 2021, 06:40:43 PM
I'm sure they'll all fall in line behind that.If the Gov't says they are open for business they can watch what they want :96:


The corner sports bar a block from my building has been open for indoor happy hour and watching sports since around Thanksgiving, when the owner finally got fed up with the back and forth lockdown orders and Newsom's hypocrisy. Has a sign on front doors reading "If the governor can dine in, so can we!" Whenever there's enough business and the police cruisers are rolling by the front doors get locked and customers are directed out the back alley door if leaving. Two weekends ago they hosted a sizeable crowd for the UFC night. At some point enough Californian's were going to get fed up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 05, 2021, 07:09:03 PM
DES MOINES, Iowa (KCRG) - Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds signed a new public health proclamation on Friday rolling back all COVID restrictions on Iowa businesses.

Effective at 12:01 A.M. on Sunday, the proclamation removes mask requirements, gathering limits, and restrictions on businesses.

“The proclamation strongly encourages Iowans, businesses and organizations to take reasonable public health measures consistent with guidance from the Iowa Department of Public Health,” said Pat Garrett, a spokesperson for the Governor’s Office.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 05, 2021, 07:15:02 PM
relieved to know the pandemic is over in my state
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 05, 2021, 07:58:25 PM
IOUX CITY -- Data from the Iowa Department of Public Health shows that Woodbury County is behind the state's other large counties in getting COVID vaccines in residents' arms.

As of Friday, 7,052 doses of vaccine have been administered to Woodbury County residents. This figure represents doses only -- some residents have already received both doses, while others have received only one.

Woodbury County is ninth in the state in this measure, despite being the sixth-largest county in Iowa by population. In Story, Dallas and Dubuque counties, which each have populations smaller than Woodbury County, more vaccine doses have been administered -- 9,864 doses have been administered to Dubuque County residents, for example.

In Polk County, the most populous in the state, 45,058 doses have been administered to county residents. This is well over six times as many doses as Woodbury County, despite Polk County's population being less than five times as large.

It's not entirely clear what's behind the lag in Woodbury County's numbers, though a pair of large-scale public vaccine clinics, where roughly 3,000 doses are set to be administered, are scheduled for next week in Sioux City.


"I can tell you that our healthcare community felt it would be most effective to pool our local resources and distribute the vaccine via large public clinics. So we’ve been accumulating vaccine to accommodate the large clinic setting," Tyler Brock, deputy director of the Siouxland District Health Department, wrote in an email Friday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 06, 2021, 08:09:56 AM
I posted during Thanksgiving that folks seemed to be "out and about" in larger groups, the weather was spectacular and the park was so crowded we left to get out of it.  That could have been in effect a superspreading event.  Then Christmas, weather colder of course, but groups.

So that COULD explain the recent rise in cases, or part of it.  The number of folks with at least some resistance now is fairly significant, maybe a third of the population, and perhaps the most likely to transmit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 06, 2021, 08:13:57 AM
World-wide cases (not including China, of course):

(https://i.imgur.com/VsoUZJM.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 06, 2021, 08:33:22 AM
Winning the race to herd immunity:

(https://i.imgur.com/99ptRkx.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 06, 2021, 09:18:25 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 05, 2021, 07:09:03 PM
said Pat Garrett, a spokesperson for the Governor’s Office.
Dude's done well for himself since he offed young Billy
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 06, 2021, 09:29:52 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 06, 2021, 08:33:22 AM
Winning the race to herd immunity:

(https://i.imgur.com/99ptRkx.png)
winning...........

I'd be interested in the list sorted by deaths per 1M.  Seems Utah might be winning
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 06, 2021, 09:40:20 AM
Deaths/Million

(https://i.imgur.com/P1QPBFo.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 06, 2021, 09:45:51 AM
North and South Dakota in the top 10, but Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Wisconsin nowhere to be seen.

Utah could be at the bottom
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 06, 2021, 12:50:26 PM
Everyone bitches about California, but it's not in the top half of either of those lists.  No credit for the draconian measures actually working, I see.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 06, 2021, 12:51:40 PM
Arizona isn't winning anything, because our governor's face is endlessly obscured by a former president's ball sack.  

13,000 dead Arizonans, and most of those would have voted for him in the next election.  Ooops!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 06, 2021, 01:15:24 PM
Georgia has not had draconian measure since April 23 and the numbers here are dropping sharply as well.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 06, 2021, 01:17:51 PM
This is a good example of how an "analysis" can be flawed, by seizing on what one HOPES is true, without challenging that belief.  IF we had two roughly comparable states and one shut down and the other didn't, we'd have a point of comparison.  Just to assert CA is dropping because of draconian measures of course ignores similar declines in other states without such measures.

But, it's supportive of one's initial bias, so don't look further.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 06, 2021, 03:00:14 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 06, 2021, 12:50:26 PM
Everyone bitches about California, but it's not in the top half of either of those lists.  No credit for the draconian measures actually working, I see. 
Are they working?

Are Florida's working? Oh wait... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 06, 2021, 03:07:28 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 06, 2021, 09:40:20 AM
Deaths/Million

(https://i.imgur.com/P1QPBFo.png)
Lots of Lockdown states on that list, eh?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 06, 2021, 04:20:21 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 06, 2021, 12:51:40 PM
13,000 dead Arizonans, and most of those would have voted for him in the next election.  Ooops!
politics doesn't save lives but........... some want to think so
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on February 06, 2021, 04:24:30 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 06, 2021, 12:50:26 PM
Everyone bitches about California, but it's not in the top half of either of those lists.  No credit for the draconian measures actually working, I see. 


If California is divided into north/south halves Southern California makes the Top 15 of the Deaths/1M pop list at +1,700 Deaths/1M. Which follows the trends seen in Arizona, Las Vegas, and what's going on in NW Mexico. 

Northern California more so parallels the rates seen in Washington/Oregon.

In other words, the hotter, sunnier, desert-y Southwest region has a distinct path of numbers different, despite state borders, from the cooler, rainier, Northwest region from the Bay Area up through Seattle.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 06, 2021, 04:36:51 PM
That may fit the data, but it doesn't fit the preconceived notion ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on February 06, 2021, 10:37:12 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 06, 2021, 12:51:40 PM
Arizona isn't winning anything, because our governor's face is endlessly obscured by a former president's ball sack. 

13,000 dead Arizonans, and most of those would have voted for him in the next election.  Ooops!
You really are either totally blind to reality or just don't care to see the truth. 

Go talk to any Trump supporter in Arizona and see if any of them think that Ducey was following Trump and his way of handling Covid.

You will find that most if not all thing that Ducey has been almost as bad as the Democratic governors of other states.  

Ducey had plans to run for Senate since he is term limited as governor, however because he has alienated his base (very large cross section being Trump supporters) by what is perceived as an overaggressive power grab and has no chance to win, he has recently stated he will not run for senate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on February 07, 2021, 02:32:25 AM
My 25-year old daughter, and my 87-year old mother, and  88-year old dad all vaccinated, in Arizona. So far, I am too young for a vaccination.

Iowa is #47  in vaccinations.  We suck here in Iowa.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 07, 2021, 05:31:10 AM
Georgia his a peak in mid-January of around 7,400 reported new cases, and then the case rate was cut in half, in three weeks, with no additional governmental restrictions.  I don't personally see any change in habits around me, but it certainly is possible the numbers scared people into staying home more or avoiding others.

And the Holiday impact is possible of course, air travel was up considerably.

I still don't have a good explanation for these bumps and drops.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 07, 2021, 08:04:18 AM
Things get better, and people let their guard down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 07, 2021, 08:33:34 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 07, 2021, 08:04:18 AM
Things get better, and people let their guard down.
I believe this is definitely a significant contributing factor in the "waves."

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 07, 2021, 09:21:09 AM
Quote from: utee94 on February 07, 2021, 08:33:34 AM
I believe this is definitely a significant contributing factor in the "waves."


Maybe everybody made a new years resolution to stop being weird
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 07, 2021, 09:23:59 AM
in Austin?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 07, 2021, 09:25:22 AM
You get a Yuengling FF
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 07, 2021, 10:15:34 AM
If it is true that the peaks and valleys reflect behaviors, adjustments by individuals, we don't need some lock down, folks will alter as needed.  I noted when Kemp opened Georgia April 23 that a lot of places stayed take out only, so that was a behavior.  Traffic seems to have recovered, that's hard to judge of course.

Holiday crowds were a behavior.  Coming out of that period adjusted behaviors, maybe the numbers got scary too for some.

I'm still waiting on the vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 07, 2021, 10:20:45 AM
Iowa has had all restrictions including the wearing of masks removed

we shall see if this causes a surge in a few weeks

vaccines are not being administered in mass quickly enough to prevent a surge here
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 07, 2021, 10:38:33 AM
Pfizer expects to cut COVID-19 vaccine production time by almost 50% (usatoday.com) (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/02/07/pfizer-expects-cut-covid-19-vaccine-production-time-almost-50/4423251001/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 07, 2021, 10:40:38 AM
at this time, it doesn't appear to be a supply issue, but hopefully it is within a week or 2.

all NFL stadiums open as vaccine sites
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 07, 2021, 10:44:12 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/K77EeP8.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 07, 2021, 10:58:53 AM
159 died of other causes, but are included in the 1%?

is the 1% rounded up or rounded down?

so it says select a county, but you can select the entire state?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 07, 2021, 11:02:25 AM
Face the Nation just stated that worldwide, last week, there were more vaccines administered than new cases reported
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 07, 2021, 11:03:36 AM
new Zealand & Australia becuase of low number of cases are NOT  vaccinating folks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 07, 2021, 11:52:32 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 07, 2021, 10:58:53 AM
159 died of other causes, but are included in the 1%?

is the 1% rounded up or rounded down?

so it says select a county, but you can select the entire state?
That is the entire state.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 07, 2021, 12:19:35 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 07, 2021, 10:40:38 AM
all NFL stadiums open as vaccine sites
not at a high of 11 degrees they're not with the wind blowing down out of Canada.It's 19 right now and sunny with no wind - actually very comfortable.A very light snow fell into the morning and a few neighbors used their leaf blowers
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 07, 2021, 12:40:45 PM
they spent some time filming at Gillette stadium, Robert Kraft photo op

they were inside, no one on the field, although some being vaccinated were taking pics of the field

I'm thinking the concourses near restrooms and concessions

plenty of parking and folks experienced with movinf large groups of people 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on February 07, 2021, 02:15:25 PM
Some NFL stadiums are going to be better than others for mass vaccination. The downtown stadiums (Detroit, Minneapolis, Seattle, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Baltimore, Indy) will have issues getting people into and out of the building in quantity. Soldier Field is worthless until the weather warms up. 

I also saw a photo of vaccination doses being set up behind beer taps at Fenway Park.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 07, 2021, 02:27:37 PM
Wife's second shot yesterday (Moderna). Arm is even more useless than after the first one. Much more painful and started sooner after the show than the first dose.

She had chills and actually some nausea last night, but no fever. Much better this morning, although she's still a bit achy. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 07, 2021, 02:33:34 PM
Hopefully it's the what doesn't kill you makes you stronger
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 07, 2021, 03:06:22 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on February 07, 2021, 02:15:25 PM
Some NFL stadiums are going to be better than others for mass vaccination. The downtown stadiums (Detroit, Minneapolis, Seattle, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Baltimore, Indy) will have issues getting people into and out of the building in quantity. Soldier Field is worthless until the weather warms up.

I also saw a photo of vaccination doses being set up behind beer taps at Fenway Park.
Ill meet you at Fenway

get the shot, get a free draw!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 07, 2021, 03:54:59 PM
The Massholes would never give away free suds
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 07, 2021, 03:56:35 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on February 07, 2021, 02:27:37 PM
Wife's second shot yesterday (Moderna). Arm is even more useless than after the first one. Much more painful and started sooner after the show than the first dose.

She had chills and actually some nausea last night, but no fever. Much better this morning, although she's still a bit achy.

Got any gingersnaps? Great for nausea.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 07, 2021, 04:21:47 PM
Gingersnaps?You should forfeit your man card - hand over the cigars and Scotch
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 07, 2021, 05:08:31 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on February 07, 2021, 09:25:22 AM
You get a Yuengling FF
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/p526x296/145353305_10158989553415070_1805166072612992128_o.jpg?_nc_cat=106&ccb=2&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=TNVzAuo9IoIAX81nmK8&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&tp=6&oh=a7a4385fdccd5e266d963db6e94f08f6&oe=60448C6D)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 07, 2021, 06:13:55 PM
HOO-AH
(https://i.imgur.com/4i3n9kn.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 07, 2021, 11:32:53 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on February 07, 2021, 02:27:37 PM
Wife's second shot yesterday (Moderna). Arm is even more useless than after the first one. Much more painful and started sooner after the show than the first dose.

She had chills and actually some nausea last night, but no fever. Much better this morning, although she's still a bit achy.

Sorry for her troubles but glad things are looking up.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on February 08, 2021, 12:35:50 AM
My mid 70s folks slept off a day following dose 2 but were in really good spirits thereafter.    My Dad says he's going to wear a 'V' on his forehead.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 08, 2021, 07:50:08 AM
I think MB stadium here would be useful for a vaccination site.  I'm not sure why there would be any issue getting folks in and out, they do that for games with 75,000 people fairly well, and it's between two subway stations.

The problem is not enough vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 08, 2021, 08:02:57 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on February 07, 2021, 04:21:47 PM
Gingersnaps?You should forfeit your man card - hand over the cigars and Scotch
Can't make Sauerbratin without the gingersnaps.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on February 08, 2021, 08:53:57 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 07, 2021, 03:06:22 PM
Ill meet you at Fenway

get the shot, get a free draw!
(https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/9IC-2w16teYqnYkoW-x_tLygtvs=/1500x998/media/img/photo/2021/02/vaccination/a11_1230860041/original.jpg)

The Mrs. is the matron of honor in a wedding in Rhode Island this summer. We're trying to line up the trip with a BoSox game at Fenway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 08, 2021, 10:05:50 AM

Fenway is my favorite of all the old parks, even better than Wrigley but it's close.



I saw The Rocket pitch for the Blue Jays and beat his former team at Fenway once upon a time in July 1997.  That was a fun game.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 08, 2021, 10:12:02 AM
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/a-blow-for-astrazeneca-vaccine-touted-as-world-s-best-hope-for-defeating-covid-19/ar-BB1duLbh?ocid=spartan-dhp-feeds


Quote
A blow for AstraZeneca vaccine, touted as world's best hope for defeating Covid-19

South Africa has paused its rollout of the Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine after a study showed (https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/07/health/south-africa-astrazeneca-vaccine-study/index.html) that it offered "minimal protection" against mild or moderate illness caused by the more contagious virus variant first identified there, known as B.1.351.


...It was not clear from the study, which has not yet been peer reviewed, whether the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine protected against severe disease from the B.1.351 variant. The 2,000 clinical trial participants were mostly young healthy adults, unlikely to become severely ill. But based on immune responses detected in their blood samples, scientists said there was "still some hope" that the vaccine could protect against more severe cases....

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 08, 2021, 10:33:42 AM
Quote from: utee94 on February 08, 2021, 10:12:02 AM
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/a-blow-for-astrazeneca-vaccine-touted-as-world-s-best-hope-for-defeating-covid-19/ar-BB1duLbh?ocid=spartan-dhp-feeds



Nothing indicating the stats from the study who or how the study was conducted and due to the source of this article Im not buying it until we have these facts

Bottom line is how many if any got the virus after being vaccinated
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 08, 2021, 10:37:56 AM
Moderna and Pfizer claim that their vaccines work against the newer strains, and they are constantly tweaking. AZN will do the same, I'm sure. 

I'm not big into anything that comes out of CNN, as they would like the world to remain closed so people can watch them all day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 08, 2021, 10:39:26 AM
and if they did get the virus, was it severe?  Hospitalizations and/or deaths
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 08, 2021, 10:40:55 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 08, 2021, 10:39:26 AM
and if they did get the virus, was it severe?  Hospitalizations and/or deaths
This info is in the article and the study.  It wasn't severe, but the sample also trended toward the young and healthy.  So the study is inconclusive on that front.  It's also not peer-reviewed as of yet.


And, I'm just passing along info, no need for y'all to get your panties all bunched up. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 08, 2021, 10:52:02 AM
Quote from: utee94 on February 08, 2021, 10:40:55 AM
This info is in the article and the study.  It wasn't severe, but the sample also trended toward the young and healthy.  So the study is inconclusive on that front.  It's also not peer-reviewed as of yet.


And, I'm just passing along info, no need for y'all to get your panties all bunched up. :)

utee we are just giving our thoughts on a very pessimistic article

Nobody is shooting the messenger 

calm yourself
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 08, 2021, 10:52:21 AM
I should point out, because it's become a staple of anti-vax memes, that they're saying "the vaccine doesn't even stop you from getting the virus!" And even then "you can still pass it on to others after getting vaccinated!"

Of course it doesn't, dummy. It's not a magical force field that prevents virus cells from entering your system. It teaches your immune system to handle the virus when it is encountered without succumbing to the disease caused by the virus and having horrible reactions. 

This has been true with every vaccine, ever. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 08, 2021, 10:57:50 AM
And here I thought it was a force field. Damn.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 08, 2021, 11:00:32 AM
Tracking with 7 day moving average

(https://i.imgur.com/q9DgdQj.png)(https://i.imgur.com/mP641rk.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 08, 2021, 11:33:41 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on February 08, 2021, 10:52:02 AM
utee we are just giving our thoughts on a very pessimistic article

Nobody is shooting the messenger

calm yourself
https://youtu.be/zrzMhU_4m-g?t=47
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 08, 2021, 11:36:15 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on February 08, 2021, 10:52:21 AM
This has been true with every vaccine, ever.
So you're saying Genie crossing her arms blinking and nodding simultaneously has a chance?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 08, 2021, 11:50:16 AM
Quote from: bwarbiany on February 08, 2021, 10:52:21 AM
I should point out, because it's become a staple of anti-vax memes, that they're saying "the vaccine doesn't even stop you from getting the virus!" And even then "you can still pass it on to others after getting vaccinated!"

Of course it doesn't, dummy. It's not a magical force field that prevents virus cells from entering your system. It teaches your immune system to handle the virus when it is encountered without succumbing to the disease caused by the virus and having horrible reactions.

This has been true with every vaccine, ever.
Yeah I'm not sure why folks are latching onto silly nonsense like this.
 
10 months ago, everyone became an epidemiologist.  Now, I guess everyone has become a doctor specializing in infectious disease.  And the mainstream media are just as bad as the social media at fanning the flames.

  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 08, 2021, 12:24:46 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 08, 2021, 11:50:16 AM
Yeah I'm not sure why folks are latching onto silly nonsense like this.
Not to echo OAM, but it's because the masses are dumb.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 08, 2021, 12:29:10 PM
Success, in my mind, is any vaccine that renders the illness mild, staying out of hospitals.

That was always the critical factor, for me.  Hospital utilization.

And I would guess that a vaccinated person is much less likely to get mildly sick after contact.

The effectiveness of other vaccines we take are usually in the 90+% range also.  The flu is an exception.

Heard about any polio outbreaks in the US recently?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 08, 2021, 12:32:27 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/dRI6rNt.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 08, 2021, 12:36:21 PM
The January peak in GA was nearly 7400, yesterday down to 2600, in three weeks, no lock downs.  It's a striking drop.

Reported new cases.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 08, 2021, 02:08:30 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 08, 2021, 11:50:16 AM
Yeah I'm not sure why folks are latching onto silly nonsense like this.
 
10 months ago, everyone became an epidemiologist.  Now, I guess everyone has become a doctor specializing in infectious disease.  And the mainstream media are just as bad as the social media at fanning the flames.

 
Maybe I travel in different circles but I’m not seeing anyone question these things which are obvious. I do see people questioning what is clearly an experimental vaccine, where there are many potential yet unknown risks and weighing that against the risk of surviving Covid which for most healthy people is extremely extremely low.

Not sure anybody could reasonably disagree with that line of thinking.

In that respect I will not say the masses are dumb as much as the masses are lemmings following the main stream media.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 08, 2021, 03:34:09 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on February 08, 2021, 02:08:30 PM
Maybe I travel in different circles but I’m not seeing anyone question these things which are obvious. I do see people questioning what is clearly an experimental vaccine, where there are many potential yet unknown risks and weighing that against the risk of surviving Covid which for most healthy people is extremely extremely low.

Not sure anybody could reasonably disagree with that line of thinking.

In that respect I will not say the masses are dumb as much as the masses are lemmings following the main stream media.
The masses, by which I mean most of humanity, is TERRIBLE at properly assessing risk. 

People are afraid of air travel but willing to drive 500 miles someplace despite the statistical fact that deaths per million vehicle miles traveled is far lower for commercial aviation. That's one example, but behavioral psychology will give you hundreds of others. 

This came up recently (I posted the link many pages upthread) when you saw the stories about health care workers who weren't ready to get the vaccines. Because health care workers are a captive audience with very well-known demographics, it was easy to slice and dice the data on who was or was not willing to get the vaccines.



Guess what they found? The most highly educated of healthcare workers were the MOST likely to want to get the vaccine, and the least educated were the LEAST likely to want to get the vaccine. 

All the available evidence we have is that the risk of COVID for all age groups is higher than the risk of the vaccine. 

I think the issue is that getting the vaccine is an active decision whereas contracting COVID is a passive event. It's a lot harder, psychologically, to CHOOSE to do something with low risks to prevent a CHANCE of something of higher risk happening to you. You say "hey, I probably won't get COVID, and even if I did, it probably won't be that bad for someone of my age/health, so I'll wait on the vaccine" when I'd venture to say that the likelihood of getting COVID and the likelihood of a severe case are MUCH higher than the probability anyone would actually assign to themselves.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 08, 2021, 03:37:36 PM
A major intent of the vaccine is to keep people out of hospitals and cut the rate of spread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 08, 2021, 03:42:29 PM
could please get this message to the masses?

and then explain it to them in a way that many of them could understand this?

I assumed with new leadership, the messaging would be much better, but it doesn't seem to work that way.

Fauci is now able to speak his mind 

the CDC has a new director 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 08, 2021, 03:44:26 PM
We humans believe in miracles often as not and whatever meme appeared on FB.

If the vaccine has some dire side effect, we likely won't know for years.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 08, 2021, 03:55:35 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on February 08, 2021, 03:34:09 PM
The masses, by which I mean most of humanity, is TERRIBLE at properly assessing risk.

People are afraid of air travel but willing to drive 500 miles someplace despite the statistical fact that deaths per million vehicle miles traveled is far lower for commercial aviation. That's one example, but behavioral psychology will give you hundreds of others.

This came up recently (I posted the link many pages upthread) when you saw the stories about health care workers who weren't ready to get the vaccines. Because health care workers are a captive audience with very well-known demographics, it was easy to slice and dice the data on who was or was not willing to get the vaccines.

  • If the prudent move was to brave COVID without the vaccine, you would expect that the highest proportion of people who were unwilling / not ready to get the vaccines would be the most highly educated of healthcare workers (doctors, specialists, etc).
  • If the foolish move was to brave COVID without the vaccine, you would expect that the highest proportion of people who were unwilling / not ready to get the vaccines would be the least highly educated of healthcare workers (foodservice, janitorial, low-level assistants, etc).


Guess what they found? The most highly educated of healthcare workers were the MOST likely to want to get the vaccine, and the least educated were the LEAST likely to want to get the vaccine.

All the available evidence we have is that the risk of COVID for all age groups is higher than the risk of the vaccine.

I think the issue is that getting the vaccine is an active decision whereas contracting COVID is a passive event. It's a lot harder, psychologically, to CHOOSE to do something with low risks to prevent a CHANCE of something of higher risk happening to you. You say "hey, I probably won't get COVID, and even if I did, it probably won't be that bad for someone of my age/health, so I'll wait on the vaccine" when I'd venture to say that the likelihood of getting COVID and the likelihood of a severe case are MUCH higher than the probability anyone would actually assign to themselves.
“All the available evidence we have is that the risk of COVID for all age groups is higher than the risk of the vaccine. “

here lies the problem.  First what you’re stating is clearly an opinion which I may personally agree with but I don’t think it’s based on fact as much as intuition.  Second, we’ve been dealing with this Covid for well over a year and we’ve seen the effects of the vaccine for maybe few months? We have no idea what the long-term effects or efficacy is.  None.

lastly I have seen complete opposite medical opinions on this from many highly decorated physicians and epidemiologists. So they don’t all agree which doesn’t make one side wrong or right but shows to you hopefully that this is really a personal decision and someone else should not be making it for you or mandating it to you.  Agree?





Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 08, 2021, 03:56:42 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 08, 2021, 03:42:29 PM
could please get this message to the masses?

and then explain it to them in a way that many of them could understand this?
Here's an idea.

The United States military spends an INSANE amount of money on training and preparedness. Far more of their budget goes into training and equipping soldiers than actually goes into fighting. 

But when war breaks out, does anyone say "you mean with all that training and money, you couldn't even prevent a war?!"

No, because that sounds idiotic.

All that training and preparedness is to ensure that when war comes, you defeat the enemy with overwhelming force and the least cost to yourself. It doesn't prevent a war, it prevents LOSING a war. 

That's what the vaccine does. It trains your immune system for war. It won't stop SARS-nCov-2 from attacking you, but it'll make sure you win with overwhelming force... And as CD points out, without having to go to the hospital to call in reinforcements. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 08, 2021, 04:32:05 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on February 08, 2021, 03:55:35 PM
“All the available evidence we have is that the risk of COVID for all age groups is higher than the risk of the vaccine. “

here lies the problem.  First what you’re stating is clearly an opinion which I may personally agree with but I don’t think it’s based on fact as much as intuition.  Second, we’ve been dealing with this Covid for well over a year and we’ve seen the effects of the vaccine for maybe few months? We have no idea what the long-term effects or efficacy is.  None.

lastly I have seen complete opposite medical opinions on this from many highly decorated physicians and epidemiologists. So they don’t all agree which doesn’t make one side wrong or right but shows to you hopefully that this is really a personal decision and someone else should not be making it for you or mandating it to you.  Agree?
On that I certainly agree. I don't think we should be forcibly vaccinating anyone. 

My point is that "the masses" are not making informed and educated decisions about risk, in general. Most don't have the access to the information about the risks nor the intellectual tools to handle it. Their primary information source is their friends and memes on Facebook, most of whom are as ill-informed as themselves.

I do disagree that the what I said about the available evidence is based on intuition rather than fact. The known risks of the vaccine are extremely minimal. The known risks of COVID are not. In order to put the vaccine in a "higher risk" range has to account for unknown risks, which of course might exist, but which haven't shown up in all of the clinical trials, and haven't shown up in the ~50M doses given in the United States so far.

It's like a woman being locked in the house with a physically abusive SO but refusing to call the cops to get help on the off chance that the officer responding will be a serial killer. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on February 08, 2021, 05:11:22 PM
Mom got her first dose this morning. She had to duck a demolition derby on 494 to get there, but she got it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 08, 2021, 06:51:27 PM
do we have any data or number of people that have died or been hospitalized caused by the vaccine?

or are we discussing side affects such as a sore arm, headache, feeling lethargic?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 08, 2021, 06:56:48 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 08, 2021, 06:51:27 PM
do we have any data or number of people that have died or been hospitalized caused by the vaccine?

or are we discussing side affects such as a sore arm, headache, feeling lethargic?
Long term effects- which are unknown obviously.  Sterility, long term efficacy ( previous strains of Corona virus vaccine had some real issues- that’s why it never came to market).  

call it what it is at this early juncture- experimental.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 08, 2021, 06:59:05 PM
I understand that it is too early to call, but are we as a nation reporting and compiling this data?

as the months pass, we get more information
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 08, 2021, 07:03:45 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 08, 2021, 06:59:05 PM
I understand that it is too early to call, but are we as a nation reporting and compiling this data?

as the months pass, we get more information
Yes- everyone receiving the vaccine is actually part of a medical trial. 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/01/health/eua-coronavirus-vaccine-history/index.html

I guess it just depends on your politics. We criticize “ the masses” but just look at the confusing shit they are being fed.  That article is from September.  They have flopped 180 degrees.   Wonder why?   Lol
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 08, 2021, 07:09:28 PM
I strongly dislike the national media
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 08, 2021, 07:30:46 PM
I view the news media as a "for profit" operation, they sling hash for their audience and ignore what their audience won't want to hear.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 08, 2021, 07:31:09 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 08, 2021, 06:51:27 PM
do we have any data or number of people that have died or been hospitalized caused by the vaccine?

or are we discussing side affects such as a sore arm, headache, feeling lethargic?
There are a couple of cases of people who have died after the vaccine with strange circumstances. The most well known that I'm aware of is a doctor in Florida who suddenly had his platelet count drop to zero about 4 days after getting the vaccine and died not long thereafter. That's one of those freak reactions that nobody quite has a clue what caused it. 

They also monitor you for a minimum of 15 minutes after the vaccine for anaphylaxis. That is a rare but non-zero reaction. 

But... We've given 50M doses in this country and we're not hearing horror stories about deaths/hospitalizations. So as far as the short-term side effects, they don't seem to exist. 

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on February 08, 2021, 06:56:48 PM
Long term effects- which are unknown obviously.  Sterility, long term efficacy ( previous strains of Corona virus vaccine had some real issues- that’s why it never came to market). 

call it what it is at this early juncture- experimental. 
Really? Sterility? 

I mean, I've heard this crap before. Nobody has actually shown it happens. But very few things scare a childless woman of childbearing age more than the idea that she'll never have the ability to have children, so it's a remarkably phenomenal fear tactic.

Apparently it has to do with the idea that there is some very tiny similarity between a protein in the placenta and the spike protein of COVID...

https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20210112/why-covid-vaccines-are-falsely-linked-to-infertility

But as this article points out, if the vaccine could cause sterility (by virtue of encoding the body to reject the spike protein of COVID and therefore reject a placenta), then actually being infected with COVID would do the exact same thing. 

That said, multiple people in the COVID vaccine trial have become pregnant, so it doesn't appear that it has any effect. 

But go on spreading conspiracy theories. At least this one is more coherent than the idea that it's Bill Gates injecting microchips.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 08, 2021, 07:35:43 PM
After the second vaccine, the wife now curses at me when she's mad, in French.

Is that a known side effect?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 08, 2021, 07:41:18 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 08, 2021, 07:35:43 PM
After the second vaccine, the wife now curses at me when she's mad, in French.

Is that a known side effect?
So far not here... But I was *really* nice to my wife over the weekend when she was going through everything.

If she suddenly starts speaking in tongues, I'll let you know!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 08, 2021, 08:00:12 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on February 08, 2021, 07:31:09 PM
There are a couple of cases of people who have died after the vaccine with strange circumstances. The most well known that I'm aware of is a doctor in Florida who suddenly had his platelet count drop to zero about 4 days after getting the vaccine and died not long thereafter. That's one of those freak reactions that nobody quite has a clue what caused it.

They also monitor you for a minimum of 15 minutes after the vaccine for anaphylaxis. That is a rare but non-zero reaction.

But... We've given 50M doses in this country and we're not hearing horror stories about deaths/hospitalizations. So as far as the short-term side effects, they don't seem to exist.
Really? Sterility?

I mean, I've heard this crap before. Nobody has actually shown it happens. But very few things scare a childless woman of childbearing age more than the idea that she'll never have the ability to have children, so it's a remarkably phenomenal fear tactic.

Apparently it has to do with the idea that there is some very tiny similarity between a protein in the placenta and the spike protein of COVID...

https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20210112/why-covid-vaccines-are-falsely-linked-to-infertility

But as this article points out, if the vaccine could cause sterility (by virtue of encoding the body to reject the spike protein of COVID and therefore reject a placenta), then actually being infected with COVID would do the exact same thing.

That said, multiple people in the COVID vaccine trial have become pregnant, so it doesn't appear that it has any effect.

But go on spreading conspiracy theories. At least this one is more coherent than the idea that it's Bill Gates injecting microchips.
Why must you always be such a jack ass? What conspiracy theory did I spread? Can you guarantee me the long-term results of this vaccine will not impact sterility? Am I the one asking that question or is the medical community asking it?

you’re all the same -any idea that you don’t agree with is either “disinformation“ or conspiracy theory.

it is not at all unreasonable for a female who is in her 20s or 30s and perfectly healthy to feel that getting Covid has less risk than a vaccine with unknown long-term effects. That’s a personal decision but it’s not a conspiracy theory. 

The closest thing to a conspiracy theory in the last few pages of this thread is you declaring that the vaccine is less risky than the disease. Now that’s a conspiracy theory and completely true definition of disinformation. But you just keep on talking down to everybody else I know that’s what you all do. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 08, 2021, 08:13:39 PM
so, are there past examples of vaccines that caused Sterility?  or other serious issues?  Hospitalizations or death?

I would think if there were, they would be spread around.

I haven't heard of any.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 08, 2021, 08:21:53 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 08, 2021, 08:13:39 PM
so, are there past examples of vaccines that caused Sterility?  or other serious issues?  Hospitalizations or death?

I would think if there were, they would be spread around.

I haven't heard of any.
Look no further than CNN article I posted up thread  There have been numerous mishaps in vaccine releases.    Why did Astra Zeneca vaccinate all those people- then stop?    It happens.

Bwar is correct in that there is no evidence that these vaccines cause fertility issues yet- and there may never be. ( there is no evidence John Wayne Gacy killed dozens of his victims, but he claims he did)

But that is completely missing my point.  Consumers in this country have been hearing conflicting, no extremely conflicting information from the same sources for so long that they have developed a miss trust of what they hear.  That’s why so many front line hospital workers were and are cautious at best about the vaccine, especially the females. The devil they know, Covid, has predictable levels of risk versus the devil they don’t know which they don’t know the risk yet. That does not make them ignorant, or conspiracy theorist, it just makes them on their own personal decisions based upon what information is available to them and how often that info has changed. 

of course all over the world, and hear on social media, those people are virtually attacked because they are taking personal responsibility and assessing the risk as they know it but those who don’t agree with them have to cancel them, attacked them, call them stupid, call them the masses, etc.  Just look at this thread for example.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 08, 2021, 08:45:01 PM
all may be true

the folks I know that are against the idea of taking the shot are the least educated on the subject

I'm not an expert and most folks are not.  Most of what I know about the vaccine I've learned here and from reading articles that have been posted here.

the anti-vaccine folks I've talked to have not read one single article for or against

I've forwarded them some articles and asked them to research a bit, and this small bit of information has changed a few minds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 08, 2021, 08:52:37 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 08, 2021, 08:45:01 PM
all may be true

the folks I know that are against the idea of taking the shot are the least educated on the subject

I'm not an expert and most folks are not.  Most of what I know about the vaccine I've learned here and from reading articles that have been posted here.

the anti-vaccine folks I've talked to have not read one single article for or against

I've forwarded them some articles and asked them to research a bit, and this small bit of information has changed a few minds.
I don’t know any “ anti - vaccine” people, if that’s a crowd publicly campaigning against it.

nearly everyone I have spoken to plans to get it/ but are apprehensive.  They have done their homework but don’t trust much of what is available by MSM, and social media as well as political figures.  They have seen nothing but hypocrisy, lies, flip flops and censorship

Thats really my point.    Can’t blame them. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 08, 2021, 09:03:41 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on February 08, 2021, 08:21:53 PM
Look no further than CNN article I posted up thread  There have been numerous mishaps in vaccine releases.    Why did Astra Zeneca vaccinate all those people- then stop?    It happens.


this doesn't appear to be a mishap or a problem with causing side effects.....  just not as effective as hoped.  And this vs the variant.

_________________________________________________ _____


South Africa has temporarily suspended its rollout of the AstraZeneca-Oxford University coronavirus vaccine after a small clinical trial revealed the shot provided only minimal protection from mild and moderate illness caused by the virus variant that is widely circulating in the country.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/02/08/965390228/why-south-africa-is-putting-the-astrozeneca-vaccine-on-hold

_ (https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/02/08/965390228/why-south-africa-is-putting-the-astrozeneca-vaccine-on-hold)___________________________________________________

WHO officials say they are confident that the shot will prevent serious illness and death from the new South African strain, despite a recent study

https://www.wsj.com/articles/astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-defended-by-world-health-officials-11612821292
_ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-defended-by-world-health-officials-11612821292)_____________________________________________
this is the misinformation...  they suspended vaccinations, SO... it must be because the vaccine is dangerous.
people leap to this conclusion because... just reading Headlines and not reading the article
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 08, 2021, 09:10:55 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 08, 2021, 09:03:41 PM
this doesn't appear to be a mishap or a problem with causing side effects.....  just not as effective as hoped.  And this vs the variant.

_________________________________________________ _____


South Africa has temporarily suspended its rollout of the AstraZeneca-Oxford University coronavirus vaccine after a small clinical trial revealed the shot provided only minimal protection from mild and moderate illness caused by the virus variant that is widely circulating in the country.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/02/08/965390228/why-south-africa-is-putting-the-astrozeneca-vaccine-on-hold

_ (https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/02/08/965390228/why-south-africa-is-putting-the-astrozeneca-vaccine-on-hold)___________________________________________________

WHO officials say they are confident that the shot will prevent serious illness and death from the new South African strain, despite a recent study

https://www.wsj.com/articles/astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-defended-by-world-health-officials-11612821292
_ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-defended-by-world-health-officials-11612821292)_____________________________________________
this is the misinformation...  they suspended vaccinations, SO... it must be because the vaccine is dangerous.
people leap to this conclusion because... just reading Headlines and not reading the article
That’s not disinformation.  If people read it, they are free to interpret how it effects them. If they don’t read it- that’s their choice. 

people have read that the Astra vaccine MAY slow the spread.  That’s exciting.  If they now want to hold off until there is better efficacy for the variant strain- that’s a reasonable conclusion. 
it’s not a conspiracy.  It’s not disinformation.  It not going agains science.  It is their personal choice based on the information they have.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 08, 2021, 09:22:30 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on February 08, 2021, 09:10:55 PM
That’s not disinformation.  If people read it, they are free to interpret how it effects them. If they don’t read it- that’s their choice. 

ok, I'll agree

if people read it - many just read the head line
if they don't read it - that's just ignorance

unfortunately, many spread their ignorance to others
"I don't really know anything about this, but I'm not getting a shot"
this is what the leadership and the media should be fighting, but....... that might be honest work and not make as much money or support the political agenda
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 09, 2021, 06:04:18 AM
There is a lot of distrust of "the media" and politicians these days, even purported "medical experts".  And there isn't much effort, often as not, to delve into an area that gets technical quickly and sort things out.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on February 09, 2021, 07:34:36 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 08, 2021, 09:22:30 PM
ok, I'll agree

if people read it - many just read the head line
if they don't read it - that's just ignorance

unfortunately, many spread their ignorance to others
"I don't really know anything about this, but I'm not getting a shot"
this is what the leadership and the media should be fighting, but....... that might be honest work and not make as much money or support the political agenda
How do you mean this? Like the forces in power should be solely focused on getting people to take more care and have more depth to things?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 09, 2021, 09:00:45 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/JdUSH1g.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 09, 2021, 09:08:25 AM
I'd start with news outlets not being click-baity.  Look at a major news outlet's webpage.  It's like 49% ads.  "Sponsored content'.  Garbage.  Headlines that don't reveal all, just so you'll click it.
.
Just like the nightly news teasing its next segment:  Why your drinking water may be lethal.....at 11.
.
It's all garbage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 09, 2021, 09:26:53 AM
That's why one must sift and winnow, to find the truth.

(https://i.imgur.com/Sm7t6b0.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on February 09, 2021, 09:43:00 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 08, 2021, 07:30:46 PM
I view the news media as a "for profit" operation, they sling hash for their audience and ignore what their audience won't want to hear.





Yes, I know, I know Bill Maher is part of the agenda driven, biased media, but whenever he veers away from the "sanctioned narrative" he's one of the more independent, albeit, isolated voices across mainstream media. I say all this because see below for the refreshingly matter-of-fact dialogue Maher shares with two Biologists regarding the strong likelihood of COVID19 being created in a lab:

Maher: "We've heard a lot recently about the fact that maybe the virus did start in the lab...it would almost be a conspiracy theory to think it didn't start in the lab, right, and that theory was demonized...but it certainly is fifty-fifty, would you say?"

Weinstein: "It's far more likely than that. As a matter of fact I said I think in June that the chances that it came from the lab look to me to be about 90 percent. So this was never a conspiracy theory, in fact that term is simply used to make it go away. It is an obvious hypothesis in need of testing and we are only now, a year in, getting to the point where we can discuss it out loud without being stigmatized."

Heying: "A big part of the problem of course is that we are so politicized, so polarized and partisan as a country, that if the wrong guy proposed this to begin with - and for half the country it was the wrong guy - the the rest of the country says, no way, no how, we're going to call that a conspiracy theory, and we're never going to revisit it, and the fact is that's not how science works. You need to say: I've got a pattern, I'm going to make some observations, and I'm going to consider every possible explanation on the table. And did it leak from a lab? That was clearly from the beginning a possibility."

Might post more points from this discussion on a later post, because of how well the biologists articulate several notable, "lab-like" nuances unique to COVID19.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMGWLLDSA3c
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 09, 2021, 09:47:33 AM
Meanwhile, the WHO says the virus didn't originate in a lab. Of course, fox in hen house.

WHO drops investigation into whether COVID-19 virus leaked from Wuhan lab, calling theory unlikely | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/world/who-coronavirus-wuhan-lab-investigation-origin-pandemic)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 09, 2021, 10:13:29 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 09, 2021, 09:00:45 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/JdUSH1g.png)
Iowa, unfortunately, near the bottom of this graph
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 09, 2021, 10:25:35 AM
an example..........  I'll defer to the chemists to decide if the amount of lye in this water may have been, "Poisonous"


In Florida city, a hacker tried to poison the drinking water

A hacker gained entry to the system controlling the water treatment plant of a Florida city of 15,000 and tried to taint the water supply with a caustic chemical, exposing a danger cybersecurity experts say has grown as systems become both more computerized and accessible via the internet.

The hacker who breached the system at the city of Oldsmar’s water treatment plant on Friday using a remote access program shared by plant workers briefly increased the amount of sodium hydroxide by a factor of one hundred (from 100 parts per million to 11,100 parts per million), Pinellas County Sheriff Bob Gualtieri said during a news conference Monday.


Sodium hydroxide, also called lye, is used to treat water acidity but the compound is also found in cleaning supplies such as soaps and drain cleaners. It can cause irritation, burns and other complications in larger quantities.

Fortunately, a supervisor saw the chemical being tampered with — as a mouse controlled by the intruder moved across the screen changing settings — and was able to intervene and immediately reverse it, Gualtieri said. Oldsmar is about 15 miles (25 kilometers) northwest of Tampa.

Gualtieri said the public was never in danger.

But he did say the intruder took “the sodium hydroxide up to dangerous levels.”


_________________________________________________ ______________

Poison was the term used last night as the tease on ABC World News

I'm guessing that Lutefisk has a much higher concentration of lye
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 09, 2021, 10:40:58 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 09, 2021, 09:08:25 AM
I'd start with news outlets not being click-baity.  Look at a major news outlet's webpage.  It's like 49% ads.  "Sponsored content'.  Garbage.  Headlines that don't reveal all, just so you'll click it.
.
Just like the nightly news teasing its next segment:  Why your drinking water may be lethal.....at 11.
.
It's all garbage.
Lol.  That made me laugh.  So true. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 09, 2021, 12:40:43 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on February 08, 2021, 08:00:12 PM
Why must you always be such a jack ass? What conspiracy theory did I spread? Can you guarantee me the long-term results of this vaccine will not impact sterility? Am I the one asking that question or is the medical community asking it?

you’re all the same -any idea that you don’t agree with is either “disinformation“ or conspiracy theory.

it is not at all unreasonable for a female who is in her 20s or 30s and perfectly healthy to feel that getting Covid has less risk than a vaccine with unknown long-term effects. That’s a personal decision but it’s not a conspiracy theory. 

The closest thing to a conspiracy theory in the last few pages of this thread is you declaring that the vaccine is less risky than the disease. Now that’s a conspiracy theory and completely true definition of disinformation. But you just keep on talking down to everybody else I know that’s what you all do. 
I'm not trying to talk down to anyone, and if that was the tone, I apologize. 

I was frustrated because I had heard the fear of sterility before, and it took all of 5 minutes to do a google search, recognize where that fear came from, and understand via the WebMD article why it's unfounded. 

I can't prove it won't cause sterility, but the causative mechanism (similarity between genetic encoding of spike protein between COVID / COVID vaccine / placenta) proposed doesn't justify the fear. Because if encoding for the spike protein caused the body to reject the placenta, that should cause an immune response in women who have also had COVID, not just those who have had the vaccine. In addition, some of the members of the early vaccine trials became pregnant after receiving the vaccine, so there are known counterexamples to the sterility hypothesis.

Even then, I'll support that woman in her 20s or 30s making her own choice. My hope is that she will make her own choice after actually researching it rather than reading memes on Facebook. My fear is that it will be "I heard from this guy who read about a doctor on Facebook that said the vaccine leads to sterility, so I'm not gonna take that!"

I'm not saying that people must take the vaccine. What I'm saying is that there is information out there to make it possible to make an informed decision on the vaccine, and my conjecture is that "the masses" aren't even coming close to making use of that information to make an informed and rational decision either way. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 09, 2021, 12:57:16 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 09, 2021, 10:25:35 AM
I'm guessing that Lutefisk has a much higher concentration of lye
Don't lie(lye) you've got some squirreled away as we post
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 09, 2021, 01:19:36 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on February 09, 2021, 12:40:43 PM
I'm not trying to talk down to anyone, and if that was the tone, I apologize.

I was frustrated because I had heard the fear of sterility before, and it took all of 5 minutes to do a google search, recognize where that fear came from, and understand via the WebMD article why it's unfounded.

I can't prove it won't cause sterility, but the causative mechanism (similarity between genetic encoding of spike protein between COVID / COVID vaccine / placenta) proposed doesn't justify the fear. Because if encoding for the spike protein caused the body to reject the placenta, that should cause an immune response in women who have also had COVID, not just those who have had the vaccine. In addition, some of the members of the early vaccine trials became pregnant after receiving the vaccine, so there are known counterexamples to the sterility hypothesis.

Even then, I'll support that woman in her 20s or 30s making her own choice. My hope is that she will make her own choice after actually researching it rather than reading memes on Facebook. My fear is that it will be "I heard from this guy who read about a doctor on Facebook that said the vaccine leads to sterility, so I'm not gonna take that!"

I'm not saying that people must take the vaccine. What I'm saying is that there is information out there to make it possible to make an informed decision on the vaccine, and my conjecture is that "the masses" aren't even coming close to making use of that information to make an informed and rational decision either way.
Fair.  I apologize for over reacting.  You are one of the most informative folks that post here- so I was not expecting a conspiracy accusation. 

I agree with your entire post here. 

Ironically I just got home from getting my haircut -all six of them.  The younger girl who cuts my hair is about 30-ish with two small children.  She actually brought up the topic totally unsolicited by me and remarked  “ I don’t think I’m going to get the vaccine at least not right now “.

so naturally I said well tell me why you feel that way, what have you read what have you heard?
her answer was not bad. She said she really hasn’t heard anything negative about it other than she read that they don’t necessarily recommend it for people with severe allergies. She just felt that it’s a new vaccine and we have had all these other diseases around for years with no vaccine or no cure- and that she wanted to see longer-term what was going on. She also mentioned that she already had Covid as had most of her friends and none of them had any serious problems with it.

That was really all I was trying to say is that it’s not unreasonable for people to think like that without having been provided any false information and even with having read results so far.

She also mentioned that her grandfather who is about 75 and has additional health issues had gotten the vaccine and she was really happy that he did.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 09, 2021, 01:31:55 PM
young people in their 20s or early 30s will wait quite some time before they need to make that decision.  a year from now possibly, at least 6 months?

by that time, they will have much more information to help them with the decision.  Hopefully, 6 months from now the virus isn't spreading much at all and the thought of being vaccinated for the good of the population isn't much of a thought.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 09, 2021, 01:42:34 PM
The water at 11,100 PPM NaOH would be 0.375 Molar, high pH, not much buffer capacity.  You could drink a small quantity, but not much, and it would burn your eyes.  I'm surprised they would have enough NaOH "on line" to treat what probably was a large amount of water.  The story COULD have the wrong figures.

Perhaps of more danger is pH that high could extract metals from pipes that could be bad, but it is usually acid that does that.

That is a lot of NaOH if the water supply being treated was thousands of gallons.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 09, 2021, 01:52:57 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 09, 2021, 01:31:55 PM
young people in their 20s or early 30s will wait quite some time before they need to make that decision.  a year from now possibly, at least 6 months?

by that time, they will have much more information to help them with the decision.  Hopefully, 6 months from now the virus isn't spreading much at all and the thought of being vaccinated for the good of the population isn't much of a thought.
I don't think it will be that long. I think by May, we're going to see more vaccine supply than we see demand.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 09, 2021, 01:55:36 PM
it would burn your eyes, but would it burn your pipes badly enough to cause a trip to the hospital?  poisoning?

I was in a restaurant for lunch 30 years  ago, one of the waitresses (that's what everyone called them back then) was rinsing out drinking glasses with bleach water.  Another waitress unknowingly grabbed one of the glasses and served a guy some ice water.  Dude, took a small drink or two, didn't notice anything.

after learning of her mistake, the waitress, picked up the glass from his table and told him what happened.  He became very upset and accused her of trying to poison him.  Got up and left in a huff stated that they would certainly heard from his attorney!

I thought it amusing as heck!  Still think the guy was a douchebag.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 09, 2021, 01:56:49 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 09, 2021, 01:52:57 PM
I don't think it will be that long. I think by May, we're going to see more vaccine supply than we see demand.
I certainly hope you're right and I feel you are.
Utee, of course, isn't nearly as optimistic 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 09, 2021, 02:03:27 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 09, 2021, 01:56:49 PM
I certainly hope you're right and I feel you are.
Utee, of course, isn't nearly as optimistic

Oh I absolutely agree we'll see that much supply, by the end of May, of a liquid that gets injected into people's arms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 09, 2021, 02:04:46 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 09, 2021, 02:03:27 PM
Oh I absolutely agree we'll see that much supply, by the end of May, of a liquid that gets injected into people's arms.

😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 09, 2021, 02:07:50 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 09, 2021, 02:03:27 PM
Oh I absolutely agree we'll see that much supply, by the end of May, of a liquid that gets injected into people's arms.

A liquid?  Wont it be vaccine?  Do you know something we dont know about the vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 09, 2021, 02:09:31 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 09, 2021, 01:55:36 PM
I thought it amusing as heck!  Still think the guy was a douchebag.
Report back when someone slips some Clorox into your Shark Water.Got a little reason to be doushy,matter of fact a douche would be safer
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 09, 2021, 02:26:42 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on February 09, 2021, 02:07:50 PM
A liquid?  Wont it be vaccine?  Do you know something we dont know about the vaccine.
It is a liquid.  Specifically 0.5ml in suspension.  So yeah, if you didn't know that, then I suppose I do know something that you don't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 09, 2021, 02:30:56 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on February 09, 2021, 02:09:31 PM
Report back when someone slips some Clorox into your Shark Water.Got a little reason to be doushy,matter of fact a douche would be safer
a little diluted bleach never hurt anyone
probably less harmful than everclear, which I would never put in my Sharkwater
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 09, 2021, 02:37:40 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 09, 2021, 02:26:42 PM
It is a liquid.  Specifically 0.5ml in suspension.  So yeah, if you didn't know that, then I suppose I do know something that you don't.

You have been reading OAM posts too much

snap out of it man
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 09, 2021, 02:44:45 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on February 09, 2021, 02:37:40 PM
You have been reading OAM posts too much

snap out of it man

Well okay then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 09, 2021, 02:49:37 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on February 09, 2021, 01:19:36 PM
Fair.  I apologize for over reacting.  You are one of the most informative folks that post here- so I was not expecting a conspiracy accusation. 

I agree with your entire post here. 

Ironically I just got home from getting my haircut -all six of them.  The younger girl who cuts my hair is about 30-ish with two small children.  She actually brought up the topic totally unsolicited by me and remarked  “ I don’t think I’m going to get the vaccine at least not right now “.

so naturally I said well tell me why you feel that way, what have you read what have you heard?
her answer was not bad. She said she really hasn’t heard anything negative about it other than she read that they don’t necessarily recommend it for people with severe allergies. She just felt that it’s a new vaccine and we have had all these other diseases around for years with no vaccine or no cure- and that she wanted to see longer-term what was going on. She also mentioned that she already had Covid as had most of her friends and none of them had any serious problems with it.

That was really all I was trying to say is that it’s not unreasonable for people to think like that without having been provided any false information and even with having read results so far.

She also mentioned that her grandfather who is about 75 and has additional health issues had gotten the vaccine and she was really happy that he did.
I will say that the bolded portion is important. If she's had the virus already, there is less pressure to get the vaccine IMHO because you have some level of immunity to it. We've seen reinfection is possible, but it appears to be very rare. 


And again, I'm not saying it's unreasonable or abnormal for people to think like that--I'm saying it's irrational. That's not a criticism. People are irrational.

I said it before that psychologically, there's a very big difference between deliberately choosing to go get yourself injected with something vs catching COVID by chance. If you get COVID and you have a severe case, you can write it off as bad luck. If you choose to get a vaccine and have some really bad side effect, you feel like you've made a bad decision. 

We're wired to avoid the latter. 

That's why I think it's seen that the people who have done the most thorough research on the vaccine become more likely to want it than less... Because it allows the rational side of the brain to take over and do cost/benefit analysis whereas the emotional side of the brain is simply risk averse. 

She sounds like she's done zero actual research. So she's letting her risk aversion drive her more than a rational decision. It's not misinformation and it's a 100% natural way to respond, but it's not necessarily an informed decision or the right one if there's no research. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 09, 2021, 03:53:57 PM
Makes a ton of sense, Bwar.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 09, 2021, 08:10:15 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 09, 2021, 03:53:57 PM
Makes a ton of sense, Bwar.
Not the part about her decision being a irrrational that is not accurate at all. Think about it. Very intelligent healthy young person who is exceptionally happy that her elderly grandfather with health issues got the vaccine, but who is taking a wait and see approach on getting it for herself. There is nothing irrational about that and no amount of research would change her mind. She is thinking clearly and making the best decision for herself based upon all available information. The risks that are known and the understanding that there may be risks that are unknown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 10, 2021, 05:49:51 AM
https://www.foxnews.com/us/at-least-36-people-develop-rare-blood-disorder-after-covid-vaccination

Was this healthy 56 year old Doctor being rational? Yes. The stats on this are minuscule.  But the vaccine is still  in experimental stage.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on February 10, 2021, 08:37:40 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on February 10, 2021, 05:49:51 AM
https://www.foxnews.com/us/at-least-36-people-develop-rare-blood-disorder-after-covid-vaccination

Was this healthy 56 year old Doctor being rational? Yes. The stats on this are minuscule.  But the vaccine is still  in experimental stage. 
Finally an MSM story (front the New York Times no less) that people can get behind. 

The argument "There is nothing irrational about that and no amount of research would change her mind," seems to kind of breed it's own problems. For one, if no amount of research would change someone's mind, is that rational? About a health decision if they are not close to a health professional? This seems like it would be incredibly irrational. 

But we also don't really know that no amount of research would change her mind. That's kind of just a guess by you, correct?She didn't say, "If I went to my doctor and she said it's pretty safe, safer than drugs I already take, I still would probably say no," did she? 

She's making a choice she sees as risk averse. It might not be built on much evidence, but many choices are not, and that's most often not bad. I don't know that I'd elevate it as part of "personal responsibility" because that implies a wide swath of choices have a certain nobility. If she say took a step like talking to her doctor, attaching personal responsibility might make more sense. In the end, it just feels like a choice. Not one built on a solid block or researched reasons, which is the case for a great many choices in our lives. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 10, 2021, 09:06:06 AM
A 2010 study (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20131303/) published in the American Journal of Hematology found that 3.3 per 100,000 adults are diagnosed with ITP per year. 

We have over 30 million vaccinated already.  We'd expect over a year to see 3,000 people out of 30 million diagnosed with ITP.  We don't have a year of course, call it a month, so cut that figure to 250 or so.  That would be the number of cases among 30 million people since Jan 1 NOT vaccinated.

You always need some comparison group.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on February 10, 2021, 10:09:20 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 09, 2021, 09:47:33 AM
Meanwhile, the WHO says the virus didn't originate in a lab. Of course, fox in hen house.

WHO drops investigation into whether COVID-19 virus leaked from Wuhan lab, calling theory unlikely | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/world/who-coronavirus-wuhan-lab-investigation-origin-pandemic)



Biologists at 5 min mark: 

"...there are lots of viruses that can escape from nature and infect people but in general they don't have a second trick, that is to say they can infect you...but they can't jump to the next person. What's really conspicuous about this virus is that it had both tricks from the get-go. It infects people and it differs from one person to the next with no explanation."

"...amongst those who have been seriously investigating the question of whether this is a lab escape is that the virus would have been passed through either animals in the lab or tissues in the lab in order to use evolution to re-rig it and that means that tension was put on the virus pulling it in the direction of certain things. Some of those things were intentional like infectivity of human cells which may have given it extra capacities like this fern cleavage site that no other virus like this has...the fact that this virus attacks so many different tissues in the body does not seem natural. The fact that it does not seem to transmit outdoors is very conspicuous...after all most animals live outdoors so a virus that seems adapted to indoor transmission is a bit conspicuous."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMGWLLDSA3c
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 10, 2021, 10:31:52 AM
From wiki:

Major modern diseases such as Ebola virus disease (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_disease) and salmonellosis (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salmonellosis) are zoonoses. HIV was a zoonotic disease transmitted to humans in the early part of the 20th century, though it has now mutated to a separate human-only disease. Most strains of influenza (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza) that infect humans are human diseases, although many strains of bird flu (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1) and swine flu (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H1N1) are zoonoses; these viruses occasionally recombine with human strains of the flu and can cause pandemics such as the 1918 Spanish flu (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_Spanish_flu) or the 2009 swine flu (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu).[4] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoonosis#cite_note-4) Taenia solium (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taenia_solium) infection is one of the neglected tropical diseases with public health and veterinary concern in endemic regions.[5] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoonosis#cite_note-5) Zoonoses can be caused by a range of disease pathogens such as emergent viruses (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emergent_virus), bacteria, fungi and parasites; of 1,415 pathogens known to infect humans, 61% were zoonotic.[6] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoonosis#cite_note-6) Most human diseases originated animals; however, only diseases that routinely involve non-human to human transmission, such as rabies (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rabies), are considered direct zoonosis.[7] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoonosis#cite_note-7)

Zoonoses have different modes of transmission. In direct zoonosis the disease is directly transmitted from animals to humans through media such as air (influenza (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza)) or through bites and saliva (rabies (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rabies)).[8] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoonosis#cite_note-8) In contrast, transmission can also occur via an intermediate species (referred to as a vector (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vector_(epidemiology))), which carry the disease pathogen without getting sick. When humans infect animals, it is called reverse zoonosis or anthroponosis (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthroponosis).[9] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoonosis#cite_note-9) The term is from Greek (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_language): ζῷον zoon "animal" and νόσος nosos "sickness".

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 10, 2021, 10:49:11 AM
Coronavirus vaccines: A third in US skeptical of shots, poll finds - Chicago Tribune (https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/vaccine/ct-aud-nw-coronavirus-vaccine-poll-20210210-ygd35yrepjah5ofjax7d3aaq6q-htmlstory.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 10, 2021, 11:01:08 AM
everything that comes out of China is a bit conspicuous
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 10, 2021, 12:42:50 PM
Iowa

(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/148666638_2891942727796555_71997638319727924_n.png?_nc_cat=1&ccb=3&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=Bv9VWqYZ8nwAX87g9EN&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=e2ca1f65afe0fded69116451d9f91ea3&oe=60494EEE)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 10, 2021, 01:20:54 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on February 09, 2021, 08:10:15 PM
Not the part about her decision being a irrrational that is not accurate at all. Think about it. Very intelligent healthy young person who is exceptionally happy that her elderly grandfather with health issues got the vaccine, but who is taking a wait and see approach on getting it for herself. There is nothing irrational about that and no amount of research would change her mind. She is thinking clearly and making the best decision for herself based upon all available information. The risks that are known and the understanding that there may be risks that are unknown.
Where I'm coming from is that it sounds like she really hasn't done much research at all. At least that was my takeaway from your description of the encounter. All I got from it is that she'd heard something about severe allergies (which is why they keep you for monitoring afterwards to ensure there is no anaphylactic response) and that she doesn't understand why we've got a bunch of other infectious diseases that don't have vaccines/cures but we got this one so quickly. 

If that's the case, then I find it hard to agree that she's making the best decision for herself "based on all available information."

She's making a decision based on little to no information. It's based on gut feel about risks and benefits, not actual data on risks and benefits.

I consider that to be irrational. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 10, 2021, 01:32:41 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on February 10, 2021, 01:20:54 PM
Where I'm coming from is that it sounds like she really hasn't done much research at all. At least that was my takeaway from your description of the encounter. All I got from it is that she'd heard something about severe allergies (which is why they keep you for monitoring afterwards to ensure there is no anaphylactic response) and that she doesn't understand why we've got a bunch of other infectious diseases that don't have vaccines/cures but we got this one so quickly.

If that's the case, then I find it hard to agree that she's making the best decision for herself "based on all available information."

She's making a decision based on little to no information. It's based on gut feel about risks and benefits, not actual data on risks and benefits.

I consider that to be irrational.

We can agree to disagree.

if you look at the poll 847 posted- it kind of tells us what’s really happening here. Those few individuals that have had issues with the vaccine have either tried to share their experience and been canceled out or are scared to even try. People aren’t stupid they see that. It makes them wonder what is up here? You’re not even allowed to go on social media and ask basic questions- only to be completely bombarded.  

Even in this forum, which is a form of social media, if you question the vaccine you are virtually attacked immediately as we saw yesterday. You’re not even allowed to question what are the long-term effects? How was the testing done so fast?

As far as the MSM- These are the same people who vehemently opposed any optimism about a vaccine back in the late fall months when this was being worked on because they absolutely wanted to make sure that nobody had any hope prior to the election. Those same people now will chop your head off if you question the vaccine with even basic curiosity. People can see that.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 10, 2021, 01:35:28 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on February 10, 2021, 05:49:51 AM
https://www.foxnews.com/us/at-least-36-people-develop-rare-blood-disorder-after-covid-vaccination

Was this healthy 56 year old Doctor being rational? Yes. The stats on this are minuscule.  But the vaccine is still  in experimental stage. 
Thanks for that link. I had heard of the initial case with this doctor, but had not seen anything about additional adverse reactions of this type reported. 

This is something I've been trying to keep my eyes on. I hadn't heard of additional cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 10, 2021, 01:40:00 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on February 10, 2021, 01:35:28 PM
Thanks for that link. I had heard of the initial case with this doctor, but had not seen anything about additional adverse reactions of this type reported.

This is something I've been trying to keep my eyes on. I hadn't heard of additional cases.

It is statistically insignificant.    I was just shocked it got published.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 10, 2021, 02:40:33 PM
How many maladies have arisen among the 30 million who were not vaccinated of similar age distributions?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 10, 2021, 03:25:09 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 10, 2021, 02:40:33 PM
How many maladies have arisen among the 30 million who were not vaccinated of similar age distributions?
That's one of the reasons I put that particular case with the doctor onto the back burner mentally when it happened... The question in the back of the mind is whether it was a freak coincidence or caused by the vaccine. 

The Fox News article says that 3.3 people per 100K annually are diagnosed with ITP. Doesn't break down demographics of that statement.

If >30M in the US have received at least one shot of the vaccine, which I believe was also quoted in the Fox News article, then the baseline ANNUAL rate of new onset ITP diagnosis amongst those 30M should be on the order of 990 people. Obviously an annual number doesn't make sense because we've only had the vaccine in distribution maybe 2 months. That would reduce your 990 to about 165 people in a 2 month time frame. The Fox Article said 36 apparent ITP reactions have been reported to the vaccine adverse event reporting system [VAERS]. That number is obviously far lower than 165. 

So... Is it coincidence or is this a freak reaction caused by the vaccine? Too early to tell, but I certainly hope that the experts are looking into it. 

The incidence rate of 36 out of 30M people means you're looking at somewhere around a one in a million shot if this reaction is real. Clearly I'd rather take my chances with this reaction than COVID, because the incidence of severe issues or mortality--even in my age/health demographic, is significantly higher due to COVID than one in a million. 

But I'm not ruling out an interaction here, and I'm interested to see as the data develops.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 10, 2021, 10:53:51 PM
uuhhhh,  B R A D ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on February 10, 2021, 11:39:54 PM
An article in the Dubuque Telegraph Herald said there has not been a single case of anyone testing positive for flu at either of the Dubuque hospitals this flu season. 
The spread of COVID-19 is greatly reduced in our area, too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on February 10, 2021, 11:43:46 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 10, 2021, 03:25:09 PM
The incidence rate of 36 out of 30M people means you're looking at somewhere around a one in a million shot if this reaction is real. 

But I'm not ruling out an interaction here, and I'm interested to see as the data develops.
Even if somehow every one of those cases is attributable to the vaccine, which is improbable, there is a 1/900 chance of dying from COVID-19.

1 in a million, or 1/900. I'll go with 1 in a million.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 11, 2021, 06:45:30 AM
Reported cases in Georgia continues to drop, under 2500 now.  I have no noticed behavioral changes around us, anecdotally.

The French restaurant was nearly full Tuesday night, they have reduced indoor seating and it was warm so the outside patio was full.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 11, 2021, 07:10:12 AM
Quote from: utee94 on February 10, 2021, 10:53:51 PM
uuhhhh,  B R A D ?

Wha happen??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 11, 2021, 08:21:25 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 11, 2021, 07:10:12 AM
Wha happen??
he's got some 'splainin' to do...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 11, 2021, 08:54:49 AM
Quote from: utee94 on February 10, 2021, 10:53:51 PM
uuhhhh,  B R A D ?

Hey, you figured out the secret code! :67:

Been thinking about it lately and having my username contain my very unique last name makes googling me too easy.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 11, 2021, 08:58:32 AM
Makes sense.  I didn't know that was precisely your last name.

But now, I think I know your given name and your surname, so I shall commence trolling you in real life.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 11, 2021, 09:05:43 AM
Good thing that there are only 15 years of posts with your name on them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 11, 2021, 09:09:36 AM
Since the advent of internet-based message boards, I've always used utee94.  Back in the BBS days I had a handful of other screen names.

Of course I've been around on the internet so long, and met enough people in real life, that it would probably be pretty easy to figure out who I am, for anyone that cared enough.  Luckily nobody really seems to... :)



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 11, 2021, 09:30:29 AM
This is a thing  I consider protects us against what some worry about, Big Tech tracking our every move.  I know I'm pretty boring.  I know Big Tech can track anything I google of course.  If they track where my phone goes, well OK, CD went to Kroger, how exciting.

The notion Bill Gates was putting a  tracking chip in the COVID vaccine was worth a chuckle.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 11, 2021, 09:40:49 AM
I'd didn't even chuckle
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 11, 2021, 09:42:13 AM
I read about those people on the internet.  Happy to say I don't know any in real life.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on February 11, 2021, 09:49:52 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 09, 2021, 02:49:37 PM
I will say that the bolded portion is important. If she's had the virus already, there is less pressure to get the vaccine IMHO because you have some level of immunity to it. We've seen reinfection is possible, but it appears to be very rare.


And again, I'm not saying it's unreasonable or abnormal for people to think like that--I'm saying it's irrational. That's not a criticism. People are irrational.

I said it before that psychologically, there's a very big difference between deliberately choosing to go get yourself injected with something vs catching COVID by chance. If you get COVID and you have a severe case, you can write it off as bad luck. If you choose to get a vaccine and have some really bad side effect, you feel like you've made a bad decision.

We're wired to avoid the latter.

That's why I think it's seen that the people who have done the most thorough research on the vaccine become more likely to want it than less... Because it allows the rational side of the brain to take over and do cost/benefit analysis whereas the emotional side of the brain is simply risk averse.

She sounds like she's done zero actual research. So she's letting her risk aversion drive her more than a rational decision. It's not misinformation and it's a 100% natural way to respond, but it's not necessarily an informed decision or the right one if there's no research.
I don't think it's irrational at all.  I've had COVID myself, confirmed by test and then antibody test.  Wasn't too bad, sick for 2-3 days.  I'm really not worried about catching it again.  Rationally, the evidence tells me that catching it again is very rare and there is not great information on it yet.  Nobody really knows how long immunity lasts.  Reports are anywhere from 3 months to forever.  Even if I do catch it again I don't think it will be severe.  

Rationally, the vaccine is only authorized under an emergency authorization.  I now know about a dozen people who have taken it, including some my age.  I have not seen anything yet to be concerned about.  I also don't know anybody that has caught it twice.  Having lost my dad to COVID back in October I know how deadly it can be as well.  Yet I will probably wait awhile until I decide to take it.  I'm really not afraid of it at all at this time, but in the same token there have been lots of things the gov't said was safe and yet later on we find that they were not quite as safe as we were led to believe.  Remember phen fen?  Or the arthritis drugs that were banned a few years ago? 737 Max?  All of those people thought that they were good, and the truth is most of them were.  But nevertheless changes had to be made because things came to be known as time and usage went on.  

No, not irrational at all.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 11, 2021, 10:01:47 AM
Quote from: utee94 on February 11, 2021, 08:58:32 AM
Makes sense.  I didn't know that was precisely your last name.

But now, I think I know your given name and your surname, so I shall commence trolling you in real life.
Well if that wasn't my first initial and last name, that username would have just sounded like a bunch of gibberish...

...which is quite frankly how I think most people read it. 

Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 11, 2021, 09:05:43 AM
Good thing that there are only 15 years of posts with your name on them.
At least the posts don't have my name on them any more... Just all the replies, quotes, and mentions...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 11, 2021, 10:05:09 AM
@Gigem (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1706) if you hadn't had COVID already, would that change your mind on the vaccine?

As mentioned, I don't think there's a huge pressure to get the vaccine if you've already had COVID, because it appears to confer natural immunity. For how long, we don't know, and whether it protects against new strains, we don't know. But so far reinfection is very rare.

If I had already had COVID (maybe even twice!), I probably wouldn't care about getting the vaccine very much. 

I do think that changes the calculus significantly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 11, 2021, 11:05:57 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 11, 2021, 10:01:47 AM
Well if that wasn't my first initial and last name, that username would have just sounded like a bunch of gibberish...

...which is quite frankly how I think most people read it.
At least the posts don't have my name on them any more... Just all the replies, quotes, and mentions...

And the decade and a half of every archive crawler on the planet storing your statements for posterity!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 11, 2021, 11:07:04 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 11, 2021, 10:05:09 AM
@Gigem (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1706) if you hadn't had COVID already, would that change your mind on the vaccine?

As mentioned, I don't think there's a huge pressure to get the vaccine if you've already had COVID, because it appears to confer natural immunity. For how long, we don't know, and whether it protects against new strains, we don't know. But so far reinfection is very rare.

If I had already had COVID (maybe even twice!), I probably wouldn't care about getting the vaccine very much.

I do think that changes the calculus significantly.

You know when people are making these risk assessments, I doubt they're using calculus.  Probably no more than just basic  algebra.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 11, 2021, 11:42:19 AM
Statistics for dummies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on February 11, 2021, 12:34:43 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 11, 2021, 10:05:09 AM
@Gigem (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1706) if you hadn't had COVID already, would that change your mind on the vaccine?

As mentioned, I don't think there's a huge pressure to get the vaccine if you've already had COVID, because it appears to confer natural immunity. For how long, we don't know, and whether it protects against new strains, we don't know. But so far reinfection is very rare.

If I had already had COVID (maybe even twice!), I probably wouldn't care about getting the vaccine very much.

I do think that changes the calculus significantly.
Good question.  After thinking about it, without a doubt I would have gotten the vaccine.  The reasoning I use is that you don't know how your body will react to COVID until you've had it.  Although we all know it affects more of the older crowd there are people that are young that are dying.  And so far the side effects of the vaccine seem very minimal.  I guess now I'm really afforded the time to make a decision, but I never take a flu shot either.  FWIW I'm in my mid 40's, relatively healthy (no diabetes etc, just a kinda fat) and active.  

Probably some day I will start taking the flu shot as well.  Anecdotally my father in law, at the behest of his physician, took the shingles vaccine about 3-4 years ago and has been suffering with bad rashes/skin problems ever since.  On his face, his ears, all over his body.  For years now.  So just because something has been deemed as safe does not mean zero side effects.  The rash started immediately after he had the shot, so it's not unrelated.  My son had the chicken pox vaccine and still got chicken pox.  No big deal, all of us over 30 probably all had it.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 11, 2021, 12:49:43 PM
I never had chicken pox.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 11, 2021, 12:52:30 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 11, 2021, 12:49:43 PM
I never had chicken pox.

So does that mean you should, or should not, get the shingles vaccine?  Or is everyone supposed to get that vaccine regardless, when you hit age 60 or whatever?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 11, 2021, 12:53:11 PM
I think you don't need it if you never had CP.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 11, 2021, 01:39:42 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 11, 2021, 09:30:29 AM
The notion Bill Gates was putting a  tracking chip in the COVID vaccine was worth a chuckle.
If somebody said Zuckerberg I'd be down with that.He needs to be locked in a porta-potty and knocked over.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 11, 2021, 03:20:24 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on February 11, 2021, 01:39:42 PM
If somebody said Zuckerberg I'd be down with that.He needs to be locked in a porta-potty and knocked over.
Only after it's been used at a Madison tailgate all day long, in early September.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 11, 2021, 05:34:40 PM
I am transferring files to new computer, it says it will take more than a day.

Oh, COVID, yeah.

Bad.  China bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 11, 2021, 06:38:53 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 11, 2021, 12:53:11 PM
I think you don't need it if you never had CP.
You may want to check with your primary care doctor. 

Obviously you can't get shingles if you've never had chicken pox (varicella). Shingles itself is a late blooming of that virus that never left your system if you had chicken pox. 

However I understand that the later in life you get varicella, the more terrible it is. Most of us had it as kids and it's relatively benign for [most] kids. But as you reach adulthood, varicella can be pretty nasty. 

Now, I don't know if that means that you should get a varicella vaccine, or you should get a shingles vaccine, or you shouldn't do anything. But it might be worth a discussion at a future annual physical... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on February 12, 2021, 12:09:05 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 11, 2021, 06:45:30 AM
Reported cases in Georgia continues to drop, under 2500 now.  I have no noticed behavioral changes around us, anecdotally.

The French restaurant was nearly full Tuesday night, they have reduced indoor seating and it was warm so the outside patio was full.
With our drop in cases around here, I noticed more people wearing masks. I have a downtown office in our town of 5,000. I see people are socializing in bars, so we still have that factor.
I suspect the drop in this area is directly attributable people being acquainted with, or family members of, people dead from COVID-19, which brought about increased mask wearing. Other factors are we are about 8-weeks post-holiday season, and we had high infection rates, and more immunity in our population. The vaccine is only available to essential workers and those over 65, and the roll-out in Iowa has been especially slow, but people I know have been vaccinated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 12, 2021, 08:03:16 AM
The shingles vaccine really knocked be down briefly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 12, 2021, 08:07:09 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 11, 2021, 06:38:53 PM
You may want to check with your primary care doctor.

Obviously you can't get shingles if you've never had chicken pox (varicella). Shingles itself is a late blooming of that virus that never left your system if you had chicken pox.

However I understand that the later in life you get varicella, the more terrible it is. Most of us had it as kids and it's relatively benign for [most] kids. But as you reach adulthood, varicella can be pretty nasty.

Now, I don't know if that means that you should get a varicella vaccine, or you should get a shingles vaccine, or you shouldn't do anything. But it might be worth a discussion at a future annual physical...
Dude.

I had Covid. I can never get ANYTHING else now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 12, 2021, 08:12:48 AM
Hangover?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 12, 2021, 08:15:48 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 11, 2021, 03:20:24 PM
Only after it's been used at a Madison tailgate all day long, in early September.
Well Carlin said locked in a Porta-Potty and lit on fire but that's a little extreme
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 12, 2021, 08:17:35 AM
I like it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 12, 2021, 08:18:09 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 11, 2021, 05:34:40 PM
I am transferring files to new computer, it says it will take more than a day.

Oh, COVID, yeah.

Bad.  China bad.
The whole nation is still griefing for the 5,700 they've lost during the pandemic
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on February 12, 2021, 09:58:43 AM
Have we discuss the difference between dying with Covid and dying from Covid?

Seeing just how disproportionately high the death toll in the U.S. is compared to the rest of the world has had me thinking what, exactly, counts as a Covid death? (US deaths +470K Vs global total of 2.3Mil deaths)

Someone could die of heart failure who also tested positive for Covid, for which maybe heart failure was accelerated by Covid? Vs those who die exclusively from Covid as tracked by specific methods Covid can kill on its own, such as starving the lungs of oxygen? The latter yielding a lower death toll, of course.

Understandably, with all the chaos Covid has caused throughout the global medical system, they can't be blamed for the differences in how each death is counted one way or another.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on February 12, 2021, 10:07:01 AM
I know somebody who had cancer that died from COVID.  This person was otherwise healthy and was out building barbed wire fence a week before they got covid.  I'm sure that their body was weakened from the cancer and treatment and I'm also sure their cause of death is listed as covid.  Makes me wonder about those statistics as well.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bamajoe on February 12, 2021, 10:12:15 AM
I had my second Covid shot on Tuesday morning. I played tennis that afternoon and went for a five mile hike at Kennesaw Battlefield on Wednesday. I seemed more tired than usual afterwards. That was the only negative and I am not sure it can be attributed to the shot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 12, 2021, 10:16:12 AM
That's great news Joe. I'm glad you are fully vaccinated now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 12, 2021, 10:16:35 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on February 12, 2021, 09:58:43 AM
Have we discuss the difference between dying with Covid and dying from Covid?

Seeing just how disproportionately high the death toll in the U.S. is compared to the rest of the world has had me thinking what, exactly, counts as a Covid death? (US deaths +470K Vs global total of 2.3Mil deaths)

Someone could die of heart failure who also tested positive for Covid, for which maybe heart failure was accelerated by Covid? Vs those who die exclusively from Covid as tracked by specific methods Covid can kill on its own, such as starving the lungs of oxygen? The latter yielding a lower death toll, of course.

Understandably, with all the chaos Covid has caused throughout the global medical system, they can't be blamed for the differences in how each death is counted one way or another.


From the CDC:


(https://i.imgur.com/CXIn9Ls.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 12, 2021, 10:24:04 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on February 12, 2021, 09:58:43 AM
Have we discuss the difference between dying with Covid and dying from Covid?

Seeing just how disproportionately high the death toll in the U.S. is compared to the rest of the world has had me thinking what, exactly, counts as a Covid death? (US deaths +470K Vs global total of 2.3Mil deaths)

Someone could die of heart failure who also tested positive for Covid, for which maybe heart failure was accelerated by Covid? Vs those who die exclusively from Covid as tracked by specific methods Covid can kill on its own, such as starving the lungs of oxygen? The latter yielding a lower death toll, of course.

Understandably, with all the chaos Covid has caused throughout the global medical system, they can't be blamed for the differences in how each death is counted one way or another.
We've discussed it at length, albeit that was relatively early in this pandemic. 

It seemed like early on, there was a narrative amongst those who were trying to downplay the pandemic that there was a concerted effort to inflate the numbers of COVID deaths by attributing deaths in people who has COVID but clearly died of unrelated causes to COVID. 

Despite the number of people pushing that narrative, I don't think it ever really grew legs and walked. 

Coroners are smart people.


The other reason that the narrative was busted is the excess deaths. Just look at the chart halfway down this page...

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

The CDC tracks deaths. It's seasonal by nature and goes a little higher during the winter months. But they have trend lines and know roughly, in a large country of 330M people, how many people are expected to die each year/week/month. 

You can, in fact, see a blip of excess deaths in the winter of 2017-18, which corresponds with the worst flu season in the last decade. And then you see, starting in Mar 2020, a consistent trend WELL above the line that persists today. If you look at the shape of the graph, that shows an Apr/May peak, a summer mini-peak, and then another major peak around the holidays--exactly what COVID graphs look like.

So the fact of the matter is that a LOT more people died in 2020 than past years. The final numbers aren't available yet, but it's in the same ballpark as the number of people whose deaths are attributed to COVID. 

So whether you try to call it dying from COVID or dying with COVID, the number of deaths is MUCH higher this year in the middle of a pandemic than previous years.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 12, 2021, 10:32:03 AM
Or, perhaps the Observer Effect of actually tracking these deaths closer in real time than they have ever been tracked before, is the CAUSE of the deaths?











Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 12, 2021, 10:46:00 AM
Quote from: utee94 on February 12, 2021, 10:32:03 AM
Or, perhaps the Observer Effect of actually tracking these deaths closer in real time than they have ever been tracked before, is the CAUSE of the deaths?
A policeman pulled over Werner Heisenberg.

The policeman asked him "Sir, I pulled you over for speeding. Do you know how fast you were going?"

Heisenberg replied, "No, but I know where I am!"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 12, 2021, 10:49:23 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 12, 2021, 10:46:00 AM
A policeman pulled over Werner Heisenberg.

The policeman asked him "Sir, I pulled you over for speeding. Do you know how fast you were going?"

Heisenberg replied, "No, but I know where I am!"
Science jokes.  Yay!

Never forget, you can't spell geek without EE.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 12, 2021, 10:52:52 AM
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2021/02/11/portage-theres-skepticism-pfizers-covid-vaccine-but-also-pride/4387478001/?utm_source=detroitnews-Daily%20Briefing&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily_briefing&utm_term=hero

No point I am trying to make- just cool human interest.  Portage is next to Kalamazoo where I got my BBA (WMU).  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 12, 2021, 11:02:23 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on February 12, 2021, 10:52:52 AM
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2021/02/11/portage-theres-skepticism-pfizers-covid-vaccine-but-also-pride/4387478001/?utm_source=detroitnews-Daily%20Briefing&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily_briefing&utm_term=hero

No point I am trying to make- just cool human interest.  Portage is next to Kalamazoo where I got my BBA (WMU). 
Pay wall.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 12, 2021, 11:39:15 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on February 12, 2021, 10:52:52 AM
No point I am trying to make- just cool human interest.  Portage is next to Kalamazoo where I got my BBA (WMU). 
How'd you become a Buckeye in a sea of Blue?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 12, 2021, 12:07:06 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on February 12, 2021, 11:39:15 AM
How'd you become a Buckeye in a sea of Blue?
Born in Ohio and live there till I was 12. I was kind of a Buckeye fan and then I moved to Michigan. And the way I got treated for being from Ohio and engrained me to be a Buckeye fan for life!  And Michigan they never lose, they just run out of time don’t you know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 12, 2021, 12:10:09 PM
In Portage, there's skepticism of Pfizer's vaccine but also 'an amazing sense of pride'
Neal Rubin (https://www.detroitnews.com/staff/2646714001/neal-rubin/)
The Detroit News

Unable to read the whole story? Sign in or subscribe here (https://cm.detroitnews.com/specialoffer?gps-source=CPMASTHEAD&itm_campaign=2021WINFLASH&itm_medium=ONSITE&onSuccessRedirectURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.detroitnews.com%2F).
(https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2021/02/06/PDTN/1bc0641e-81c4-4a68-93e6-895945c192e0-2021-0203-mo-Portage1370.JPG?crop=5152,2898,x0,y284&width=660&height=372&format=pjpg&auto=webp) (https://www.detroitnews.com/picture-gallery/news/local/michigan/2021/02/12/pfizer-vaccine-and-portage/6732345002/)

 (https://www.detroitnews.com/picture-gallery/news/local/michigan/2021/02/12/pfizer-vaccine-and-portage/6732345002/)
 (https://www.detroitnews.com/picture-gallery/news/local/michigan/2021/02/12/pfizer-vaccine-and-portage/6732345002/)Portage — At the closest bar to the Pfizer (https://www.pfizer.com/products/pfizer-global-supply/us-manufacturing-sites/kalamazoo)factory that's busy saving the world, union wireman Brian "Stretch" Diewald was heavily invested last week in an after-work cheeseburger and a couple of beers.
As for the COVID-19 vaccine on the production line, he wasn't buying it.
Pfizer workers in Portage are getting the same banners, applause and free sub sandwiches as nurses and doctors in other ZIP codes. People wave at the supposedly anonymous unmarked trucks hauling vials of its vaccine to the airport. There's an appreciation, as City Manager Joseph La Margo put it, that "everyone knows Portage, Michigan, now."
The suddenly famous city of 50,000 sits along the southern edge of Kalamazoo and has good schools, pretty parks, a Target, a Home Depot and a dazzling aerospace museum (https://www.airzoo.org/launchpad-to-learning?gclid=Cj0KCQiAyJOBBhDCARIsAJG2h5etuunOaJuqJPWLMCzX312bSSaDoE0pQTG4fpXAfvzMAPDafvXzKb4aAvc_EALw_wcB). It has a 150-foot-long mural painted in the center lane near the drug company's main entrance that says "Thank You Pfizer Portage MI."
What it doesn't have, to the vexation of at least one politician, is an inside track on vaccines. But that reality does not bother Diewald, who has no interest in the doses that millions are reaching for.


Diewald was at a table at RJ's Sports Bar & Grill, which is one mile south of the Pfizer complex, which is suddenly the most important 1,300 acres in the United States. Its 3,000 jobs were already important to the city, and the employees and contractors among the regulars were already important to RJ's, but now the marquee out front of the tavern says "Thx Pfizer," and it's hard for most of us to think of any workers more essential.
Diewald, 61, said he knows a few who are at least tied.
He works for an electrical contractor that just installed two boilers in the Pfizer powerhouse and helped build the production line for the vaccine.

The real heroes are the construction workers who pulled this off," he said. "We make miracles happen. The whole community came together to make a miracle."
As for the vaccine, which went from need to needle in an astonishing 11 months, "these things usually take ... years," he said. "How'd this stuff get through the system so fast? For all we know, in three months, you're going to grow a tail."
He was kidding about the appendage, mostly. More seriously, Xavier Root pondered taking the vaccine, then turned it down.
Spend a day in Portage and chances are that everyone you meet will have a connection to COVID-19. Many will also have a link to Pfizer Global Supply, the city's largest employer.
Root, 23, works for a Pfizer contractor, an insulation company. He's been badged there, to use the insiders' term, for a year or so, having first taken a mandatory safety and sanitation course. His concern with the vaccine was a possible adverse reaction, though it doesn't involve a live virus.


Another no thanks, at least for now: David Vaughn, 58, who had COVID-19 in November and "felt like I swallowed a bucket of glass."
Vaughn owns an asphalt company, and "I don’t buy the first paver that comes off the line," he said. "I’m not going to get the first vaccine, either. I’ll see how it works."
Vaughn also owns a company called Trans American Striping, and it was his crew of four that spent seven hours painting the 50-yard-long thank-you note down the middle of Portage Road. It could have been a $3,000 job, but when the city called for an estimate, he said he’d do it for free.
He might not want Pfizer's product yet, but "I know people inside that building are working tirelessly to save everyone," he said. "All I have to do is paint a picture on the road. That seems like a pretty fair trade."


'Amazing sense of pride'
Portage is enough of a small town that if your 5- or 6-year-old has a pandemic birthday with no party, the fire department will send a truck past your house to honk the horn and wail a celebratory siren.
It's enough of a city that a number of Portage Public Schools students qualified for free lunch even before the coronavirus. Lost jobs and reduced hours spiked that figure, and then came summer — so swarms of volunteers made sack lunches for parents to swing by and collect.
Some 67% of elementary students have returned to the classroom, said district spokeswoman Michelle Karpinski. The figure for middle and high school is 32%.
The numbers might go up for the final quarter because vaccination for teachers began Wednesday — with the Pfizer serum, not the Moderna version from Massachusetts.
"Everybody’s excited about that," Karpinski said. Hometown pride counts, even if proximity doesn't equal availability.
Kalamazoo County Health Officer Jim Rutherford ran two vaccination clinics last week at the Expo Center, a 90,000-square-foot public facility whose dozens of canceled events in the past year included the model railroad swap meet, reptile and exotic pet expo, rock and gem show and Hippie Fest.


His team served 4,500 people with doses from both companies, "and I could easily double or triple that," he said. "I've got the space and human resources. What I need is the vaccine."
That's an observation, not a complaint. Rutherford, 57, understands the global pull on Pfizer, which just boosted its projected production for 2021 from 1.3 billion to 2 billion doses. But not everyone grasps the concept:
"I had one of our elected officials ask me, 'Why can't we just call Pfizer?'"
The factory not quite 6 miles away is running three shifts, nonstop, weekends and holidays included. Pfizer has added suppliers since December, a spokesman said, improved production lines and doubled batch sizes.
The finished products, bound far and wide, roll past the Air Zoo (https://www.airzoo.org/launchpad-to-learning?gclid=Cj0KCQiAyJOBBhDCARIsAJG2h5etuunOaJuqJPWLMCzX312bSSaDoE0pQTG4fpXAfvzMAPDafvXzKb4aAvc_EALw_wcB) Aerospace and Science Museum, whose exhibits flew high and wild.


The Air Zoo holds more than 100 aircraft and spacecraft, including an F-117 Nighthawk (https://www.airzoo.org/get-shaba)stealth jet that was trucked from Nevada for restoration. It was designed to be undetectable, much like the plain white semitrailers loaded with cartons of vaccine and dry ice.
"People know when they're shipping out," said Air Zoo CEO Troy Thrash, 50. Along Portage Road, "we wave."
Closed by the pandemic from mid-March to mid-July, the home of a 1916 SPAD VII biplane and a 1941 P-47D Thunderbolt has adapted to changing times. None of the 26 full-time and 50 part-time employees have missed a paycheck, Thrash said, but the operators of the four idled indoor rides have been reassigned to cleaning and sanitation.
"This is huge for our community," he said — not the coronavirus, which is universal, but the vaccine, which is as much in the neighborhood as the Chow Hound pet supply store. "There's an amazing sense of pride."


Proud to be a 'Portager'
At Chow Hound, in a Westnedge Avenue strip mall, Assistant Manager Allison Jones said she had a brush with COVID-19 in December when her boyfriend was afflicted. As she spoke, she had a brush with the hefty free-range store cat, Hazel, who walked past and rubbed against her leg.
Her beau, Jones said, was weak, wheezy and sleepy for 10 days or so and missed work at a bleacher factory for two weeks. Jones, 22, never tested positive, but she stayed home for a month: "Being in retail, they make you jump through more hoops."
Otherwise, she said, the pandemic doesn't often come up, but it has struck her that it would be nice to pull into the Pfizer loading dock and get a shot.
Six doors down at Supercuts, Faith Wells said she had a customer so noteworthy a few weeks ago that she went home and called her mother in rural Ohio.
An actual scientist from Pfizer was in her chair: "The sweetest little lady. It was a real big honor."
Wells, 21, carries extra hand sanitizer in her purse and car. Much of her shift is spent wiping down work areas with disinfectant from a clear bottle with a pink spray top.
She moved to Kalamazoo a year or so ago to get a taste of city life, but then the pandemic took a gouge out of her income and she and her boyfriend bought a mobile home outside of town. She lives with Root, the Pfizer contractor who declined the vaccine.
"He has mixed feelings," she said. "He's literally making history now. In 10 years, he can tell his kids, 'This is what your dad did.'"
He just can't bring himself to trust the vaccine, even as a health professional like Rutherford pointed out that "vaccines are part of daily life."


Any irritation or soreness, Rutherford said, "is just an indication your body's doing what it's supposed to."
La Margo, the city manager, only wishes it had shown up a bit sooner.
His mother-in-law in Illinois contracted COVID-19 in January and shook it off in seven days. His father-in-law has been on a ventilator for two weeks.
Yard signs in Portage don't help him in suburban Chicago, but La Margo, 50, is heartened every time he sees one.
"You're talking about people working around the clock, taking time away from their families," he said. "I could not be prouder to be a Portager."


He came to Michigan in November 2019, three months ahead of the pandemic. Everything since the virus hit has been a crisis.
"Now," he said, "you can see the light at the end of the tunnel," and it's not an oncoming train.
It's a truck rumbling away from the factory.
nrubin@detroitnews.com
Twitter: @nealrubin_dn

View Comments (https://cm.detroitnews.com/comment/?storyUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.detroitnews.com%2Fstory%2Fnews%2Flocal%2Fmichigan%2F2021%2F02%2F11%2Fportage-theres-skepticism-pfizers-covid-vaccine-but-also-pride%2F4387478001%2F&marketName=detroitnews&commentsopen=false)





Staff Directory (https://www.detroitnews.com/contact/staff/) Site Map (https://www.detroitnews.com/sitemap/) Legals (http://classifieds.detroitnews.com/) Terms of Service (https://cm.detroitnews.com/terms) Privacy Policy (https://cm.detroitnews.com/privacy) Your California Privacy Rights / Privacy Policy (https://cm.detroitnews.com/privacy-policy/) Do Not Sell My Info / Cookie Policy
Contact Us (http://static.detroitnews.com/contact-us/) Advertise Your Business (https://localiq.com/markets/Michigan/Detroit) Buy and Sell (https://detroitnews.gannettclassifieds.com/webbaseDET/en/std/jsp/WebBaseMain.do;jsessionid=09064A45FCF1792E6724DC93B0F8986E.ecsadbeap09) Licensing & Reprints (https://imagn.com/licensing-reprints/) Help Center (https://help.detroitnews.com/)Subscriber Guide (https://www.detroitnews.com/subscriberguide/) My Account (https://account.detroitnews.com/) Give Feedback (https://cm.detroitnews.com/site-feedback/?platform=Tangent-MW&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.detroitnews.com%2Fstory%2Fnews%2Flocal%2Fmichigan%2F2021%2F02%2F11%2Fportage-theres-skepticism-pfizers-covid-vaccine-but-also-pride%2F4387478001%2F&marketName=detroitnews&cta=Footer)
Subscribe Today (https://subscribe.detroitnews.com/) Newsletters (https://profile.detroitnews.com/newsletters/manage) Mobile Apps (https://static.detroitnews.com/apps/)Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/DetroitNews) Twitter (https://twitter.com/detroitnews) E-Edition (https://user.detroitnews.com/user/enewspaper) Archives (https://www.detroitnews.com/archives) RSS Feeds (http://static.detroitnews.com/alerts-rss/)
Jobs (https://www.detroitnews.com/jobs/) Cars (https://www.detroitnews.com/cars/) Homes (https://www.detroitnews.com/business/real-estate/) Classifieds (http://classifieds.detroitnews.com/)Renvy.com (https://renvy.com/) Michigan.com (http://www.michigan.com/)

© 2021 www.detroitnews.com. All rights reserved.




Get the [color=var(--color-atoms-primary,#009bff)]COVID-19 Updatenewsletter in your inbox.[/b][/size][/color]
Updates on how the coronavirus is affecting your community and the nation
Delivery: Varies


Your Email





[/font][/size][/color]


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on February 12, 2021, 12:49:20 PM
Quote from: Gigem on February 11, 2021, 12:34:43 PM
Good question.  After thinking about it, without a doubt I would have gotten the vaccine.  The reasoning I use is that you don't know how your body will react to COVID until you've had it.  Although we all know it affects more of the older crowd there are people that are young that are dying.  And so far the side effects of the vaccine seem very minimal.  I guess now I'm really afforded the time to make a decision, but I never take a flu shot either.  FWIW I'm in my mid 40's, relatively healthy (no diabetes etc, just a kinda fat) and active. 

Probably some day I will start taking the flu shot as well.  Anecdotally my father in law, at the behest of his physician, took the shingles vaccine about 3-4 years ago and has been suffering with bad rashes/skin problems ever since.  On his face, his ears, all over his body.  For years now.  So just because something has been deemed as safe does not mean zero side effects.  The rash started immediately after he had the shot, so it's not unrelated.  My son had the chicken pox vaccine and still got chicken pox.  No big deal, all of us over 30 probably all had it. 
My mom was one of 13 (at the time) in the country who got Shingles from the Shingles Vaccine.  She was examined and interviewed by the CDC. It was quite the to do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 12, 2021, 01:40:47 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on February 12, 2021, 12:49:20 PM
My mom was one of 13 (at the time) in the country who got Shingles from the Shingles Vaccine.  She was examined and interviewed by the CDC. It was quite the to do.
It should be pointed out that it's medically impossible to get COVID from the COVID vaccine.

There have been multiple vaccines throughout history where the vaccines carried a small risk of developing the disease you're vaccinating against because they used the virus itself in the vaccine (usually a weakened or attenuated form of it when they deliberately used live virus). 

However, the COVID vaccine does not contain any form of the actual virus. 

Obviously I know that you didn't claim that you can get COVID from the vaccine, and I don't think anyone here HAS claimed such. But given that some other vaccines do carry this risk I thought it worthwhile to point out that it is 100% known that this risk doesn't exist here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 12, 2021, 02:04:57 PM
Thank you B R A D.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 12, 2021, 08:55:05 PM
The nation’s top public health agency said Friday that in-person schooling can resume safely with masks, social distancing and other strategies, and vaccination of teachers, while important, is not a prerequisite for reopening.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released its long-awaited road map for getting students back to classrooms in the middle of a pandemic that has killed nearly 480,000 people in the U.S. But the agency’s guidance is just that — it cannot force schools to reopen, and CDC officials were careful to say they are not calling for a mandate that all U.S. schools be reopened.

Officials said there is strong evidence now that schools can reopen, especially at lower grade levels.


https://apnews.com/article/cdc-in-person-schooling-4265da944bb3b6c863db6ca6a03caa58 (https://apnews.com/article/cdc-in-person-schooling-4265da944bb3b6c863db6ca6a03caa58)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 12, 2021, 09:03:33 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 12, 2021, 08:55:05 PM
The nation’s top public health agency said Friday that in-person schooling can resume safely with masks, social distancing and other strategies, and vaccination of teachers, while important, is not a prerequisite for reopening.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released its long-awaited road map for getting students back to classrooms in the middle of a pandemic that has killed nearly 480,000 people in the U.S. But the agency’s guidance is just that — it cannot force schools to reopen, and CDC officials were careful to say they are not calling for a mandate that all U.S. schools be reopened.

Officials said there is strong evidence now that schools can reopen, especially at lower grade levels.


https://apnews.com/article/cdc-in-person-schooling-4265da944bb3b6c863db6ca6a03caa58 (https://apnews.com/article/cdc-in-person-schooling-4265da944bb3b6c863db6ca6a03caa58)

This all seems really silly and unnecessarily political.

Schools here have been open-- safely-- for 6 months.  Who are they trying to kid?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 12, 2021, 10:05:34 PM
teacher's unions as strong as the egg lobby
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on February 12, 2021, 11:26:18 PM
That's just that official's personal opinion though. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 13, 2021, 12:34:01 AM
Quote from: MarqHusker on February 12, 2021, 11:26:18 PM
That's just that official's personal opinion though.

?

Which official?  Which opinion?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 13, 2021, 09:02:05 AM
Quote from: utee94 on February 12, 2021, 09:03:33 PM
This all seems really silly and unnecessarily political.

Schools here have been open-- safely-- for 6 months.  Who are they trying to kid?
You get a Yuengling,that's what Alex Jones down the road from you has been saying maybe Cindy isn't nuts for listening to him after all.Now if that mean Mr Gates would stop planting chips in folks we could go about our business ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 13, 2021, 09:21:15 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on February 13, 2021, 09:02:05 AM
You get a Yuengling,that's what Alex Jones down the road from you has been saying maybe Cindy isn't nuts for listening to him after all.Now if that mean Mr Gates would stop planting chips in folks we could go about our business ;D
That guy's a creep.

But yes, Yuengling is supposed to start distributing to Texas in the near future.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on February 13, 2021, 10:37:45 AM
Quote from: utee94 on February 13, 2021, 12:34:01 AM
?

Which official?  Which opinion?


Psaki's response to CDC's views about opening school.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on February 13, 2021, 10:43:06 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 12, 2021, 10:24:04 AM
We've discussed it at length, albeit that was relatively early in this pandemic.



So whether you try to call it dying from COVID or dying with COVID, the number of deaths is MUCH higher this year in the middle of a pandemic than previous years.




Thanks for the informed response on a talking point worth revisiting.

The difference between dying from Covid and with Covid might be splitting hairs at this point, a Venn diagram with plenty of overlap, so to speak. 

I do want to say, with different nations likely differing on how Covid deaths are counted, it's one way to explain why nations with less ambitious medical industries, such as the West African nations, have much lower death counts per capita. Granted there are MANY possible differing factors, but if, say Nigeria, is recording their usual run of deaths from heart disease or lung failure without testing for Covid due to a lack of capability, it makes sense why their death toll numbers are lower per capita. 

However, as a contributing factor this has its limit as a defining difference because, at some point, the sudden rise in sicknesses requiring a sharp need for ICU space and ventilators would certainly be noticeable as a Covid surge no matter where in the world this happened. And a number of nations haven't had this severity of Covid waves as experienced across Europe and the Americas.

Covid provides us a lot of new ways to look at our world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 13, 2021, 11:27:45 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/FVIhLgN.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 13, 2021, 11:31:27 AM
I cannot find vaccine anywhere here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 13, 2021, 11:33:57 AM
I'm getting mine next month. 1C.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 14, 2021, 09:35:55 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 13, 2021, 11:27:45 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/FVIhLgN.png)
interesting that the most populous states are getting the most folks vaccinated
big difference between 14% and 6%
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on February 14, 2021, 10:06:50 AM
We haven't talked about our lack of a flu season (I checked).

From Vox:

"""The sum of all our mask-wearing, distancing, business closures, and other, however imperfect, precautions haven’t been enough to stop the Covid-19 pandemic in its tracks. But there’s a silver lining: It has been enough to virtually wipe out the flu this season.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says that as of January 30, there have been just 1,316 positive flu cases in its clinical surveillance network since September. Around this time last year, it had logged 129,997 positive flu cases in the same time frame.

Some of the drop may be because people aren’t going in and getting tested for the flu, or they’re staying home fearing their symptoms might be a Covid-19 infection. But researchers think the decline in actual cases is real and steep.

It’s not just confirmed cases that are down. The CDC’s syndromic surveillance system — which tries to track the disease based on people showing up to clinics with symptoms — is showing historically low levels of the flu.

How could mask-wearing and distancing bring the flu to a halt, while Covid-19 rages on?

It goes back to something scientists were saying at the beginning of the pandemic: Covid-19 is way, way worse than the seasonal flu because it’s more contagious."""


(https://i.imgur.com/noaaKvA.png)

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22272237/flu-cases-down-historic-what-does-it-mean
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 14, 2021, 10:16:08 AM
I had some posts on the low flu season estimates a while back.  I figured this would be the case to the extent folks are not traveling and congregating in numbers.

Georgia's COVID cases continue to decline smoothly.  I cannot find a vaccine anywhere.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 14, 2021, 10:17:34 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 14, 2021, 09:35:55 AM
interesting that the most populous states are getting the most folks vaccinated
big difference between 14% and 6%
People fully vaccinated is probably a better measure.


(https://i.imgur.com/vDKNfin.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 14, 2021, 10:22:18 AM
I'd prefer to see percentages

might include a few of the smaller flyover states that don't really matter
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 14, 2021, 10:34:17 AM
This one doesn't sort by percentages, and 5 states don't report which shots are 1 or 2. The 15 smallest states:

(https://i.imgur.com/z0jPblp.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 14, 2021, 11:00:11 AM
TOKYO (AP) — Japan on Sunday formally approved its first COVID-19 vaccine and said it would start nationwide inoculations within days, but months behind the U.S. and many other countries.

Japan’s health ministry said it had approved the vaccine co-developed and supplied by Pfizer Inc.

The announcement comes after a government panel on Friday confirmed that final results of clinical testing done in Japan showed that the vaccine had an efficacy similar to what overseas tests showed.

Under the current plan, about 20,000 front-line medical workers at hospitals in Japan will get their first shots beginning around Wednesday. About 3.7 million other medical workers will be next, followed by elderly people, who are expected to get their shots in April. By June, it’s expected that all others will be eligible.

In a country where many people are skeptical about vaccines, Japan sought additional tests to address safety concerns. But the tests were conducted on only 160 people, and some question whether it was worth it to delay the rollout.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 14, 2021, 11:10:24 AM
Experts say it’s likely that some version of the disease will linger for years. But what it will look like in the future is less clear.

Will the coronavirus, which has already killed more than 2 million people worldwide, eventually be eliminated by a global vaccination campaign, like smallpox? Will dangerous new variants evade vaccines? Or will the virus stick around for a long time, transforming into a mild annoyance, like the common cold?

Eventually, the virus known as SARS-CoV-2 will become yet “another animal in the zoo,” joining the many other infectious diseases that humanity has learned to live with, predicted Dr. T. Jacob John, who studies viruses and was at the helm of India’s efforts to tackle polio and HIV/AIDS.


https://apnews.com/article/common-cold-india-coronavirus-pandemic-latin-america-infectious-diseases-9ff4108bb925762655b6f6e23ffcf500 (https://apnews.com/article/common-cold-india-coronavirus-pandemic-latin-america-infectious-diseases-9ff4108bb925762655b6f6e23ffcf500)

This question of what happens next attracted Jennie Lavine, a virologist at Emory University, who is co-author of a recent paper in Science that projected a relatively optimistic scenario: After most people have been exposed to the virus — either through vaccination or surviving infections — the pathogen “will continue to circulate, but will mostly cause only mild illness,” like a routine cold.

The 1918 flu pandemic could offer clues about the course of COVID-19. That pathogen was an H1N1 virus with genes that originated in birds, not a coronavirus. At the time, no vaccines were available. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that a third of the world’s population became infected. Eventually, after infected people either died or developed immunity, the virus stopped spreading quickly. It later mutated into a less virulent form, which experts say continues to circulate seasonally.

“Very commonly the descendants of flu pandemics become the milder seasonal flu viruses we experience for many years,” said Stephen Morse, who studies viruses at Columbia University.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 14, 2021, 11:24:10 AM
That sounds plausible, it becomes endemic, and relatively mild.  The mRNA approach might be extended to other virii.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 15, 2021, 07:58:01 AM
Confirmation of what we already knew.


WHO finds signs Wuhan COVID-19 outbreak 500% bigger in December 2019: CNN (businessinsider.com) (https://www.businessinsider.com/who-signs-wider-wuhan-covid-19-outbreak-december-2019-cnn-2021-2)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 15, 2021, 08:55:58 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/JKK4DM3.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 09:44:42 AM
https://apnews.com/article/conspiracy-theories-iran-only-on-ap-media-misinformation-bfca6d5b236a29d61c4dd38702495ffe (https://apnews.com/article/conspiracy-theories-iran-only-on-ap-media-misinformation-bfca6d5b236a29d61c4dd38702495ffe)

The superspreaders behind top COVID-19 conspiracy theories

IGOR NIKULIN

WHO IS HE? A four-time failed political candidate, Nikulin is prominently quoted in Russian state media and fringe publications in the west as a biologist and former weapons inspector in Iraq who served on a U.N. commission on biological and chemical weapons in the 1990s.

COVID CLAIM: Nikulin argues the U.S. created the virus and used it to attack China. He first voiced the belief in a Jan. 20, 2020, story by Zvezda, a state media outlet tied to the Russian military. He appeared on Russian state TV at least 18 times between Jan. 27, 2020, and late April of that year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 15, 2021, 12:34:07 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 15, 2021, 09:44:42 AM
https://apnews.com/article/conspiracy-theories-iran-only-on-ap-media-misinformation-bfca6d5b236a29d61c4dd38702495ffe (https://apnews.com/article/conspiracy-theories-iran-only-on-ap-media-misinformation-bfca6d5b236a29d61c4dd38702495ffe)

The superspreaders behind top COVID-19 conspiracy theories

IGOR NIKULIN

WHO IS HE? A four-time failed political candidate, Nikulin is prominently quoted in Russian state media and fringe publications in the west as a biologist and former weapons inspector in Iraq who served on a U.N. commission on biological and chemical weapons in the 1990s.

COVID CLAIM: Nikulin argues the U.S. created the virus and used it to attack China. He first voiced the belief in a Jan. 20, 2020, story by Zvezda, a state media outlet tied to the Russian military. He appeared on Russian state TV at least 18 times between Jan. 27, 2020, and late April of that year.

Not new or surprising.  That’s a conspiracy theory that’s been passed around the US.  I know many In various political office have hinted at this.  Trump/Russia versus our best friend China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 15, 2021, 02:24:38 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on February 15, 2021, 12:34:07 PM
Not new or surprising.  That’s a conspiracy theory that’s been passed around the US.  I know many In various political office have hinted at this.  Trump/Russia versus our best friend China.
I hadn't heard much of that talk at all, but, I also don't spend any time on FB or Twit. No need or desire to read CCP propaganda. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 15, 2021, 02:38:07 PM
You don't trust the Mao Zedong Daily Mirror what the hell's wrong with you?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 15, 2021, 03:02:32 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on February 15, 2021, 02:38:07 PM
You don't trust the Mao Zedong Daily Mirror what the hell's wrong with you?
I go to Pravda, it means Truth.

Georgia's COVID numbers are dropping steeply and constantly now, it's unexpected, by me to see this sharp and steady a decline.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 15, 2021, 03:40:47 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/G8Bjvmf.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 16, 2021, 08:17:27 AM
Looks like Florida is pretty good at this.

(https://i.imgur.com/wE9L3T0.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 16, 2021, 08:22:39 AM
The peak was Jan 12 here with 6,000 newly reported cases that day, and the trajectory looked bad.

Yesterday 1,736, and the trajectory is flattening a bit, as is almost inherent, but still headed lower.  

Encouraging signs, no evidence for a variant turning the curve, yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 16, 2021, 08:58:22 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 16, 2021, 08:17:27 AM
Looks like Florida is pretty good at this.

(https://i.imgur.com/wE9L3T0.png)
Yep.   Economy robust here too. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 16, 2021, 09:17:00 AM
I've been in the industry since 1984, and I've never seen as much construction as I'm seeing right now.

During a pandemic, no less.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 16, 2021, 09:44:34 AM
A few projects slated to start around us have been delayed, but several others have started anyway, and the ones already going didn't stop with one exception.

There are five large projects going on in easy walking distance, but large, I mean they are the size of a city block, one has a smaller footprint.

These are all multiuse, residential, hotel, retail, and office.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 16, 2021, 09:50:12 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 16, 2021, 09:17:00 AM
I've been in the industry since 1984, and I've never seen as much construction as I'm seeing right now.

During a pandemic, no less.
To a Hurricane this looks like a sammich
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 16, 2021, 09:52:20 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 15, 2021, 07:58:01 AM
Confirmation of what we already knew.


WHO finds signs Wuhan COVID-19 outbreak 500% bigger in December 2019: CNN (businessinsider.com) (https://www.businessinsider.com/who-signs-wider-wuhan-covid-19-outbreak-december-2019-cnn-2021-2)

Has someone threatened to cease funding and now they're coming clean?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 16, 2021, 11:58:05 AM
probably just political and not trying to make one person or party look bad

you know, the person who threatened to cease funding?

that all the further I'm going with that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 16, 2021, 02:18:56 PM
C'mon let us have it warts and all
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 16, 2021, 03:27:15 PM
not on this thread

Utee is already annoyed by the unusually wintery weather in his neck of the woods
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on February 16, 2021, 06:26:51 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 12, 2021, 10:24:04 AM



The other reason that the narrative was busted is the excess deaths. Just look at the chart halfway down this page...

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

The CDC tracks deaths. It's seasonal by nature and goes a little higher during the winter months. But they have trend lines and know roughly, in a large country of 330M people, how many people are expected to die each year/week/month.

You can, in fact, see a blip of excess deaths in the winter of 2017-18, which corresponds with the worst flu season in the last decade. And then you see, starting in Mar 2020, a consistent trend WELL above the line that persists today. If you look at the shape of the graph, that shows an Apr/May peak, a summer mini-peak, and then another major peak around the holidays--exactly what COVID graphs look like.





Similarly, using "excess mortality rates" as quantified into P-Scores by the below linked study I found, it's VERY evident COVID-19 drastically lifted overall death numbers across the board. 

"The P-score is defined as excess deaths as a percentage of ‘normal’ deaths. For weekly data, ‘normal’ deaths are often defined as the previous five-year average of the same weeks. ‘Normal’ death rates reflect persistent factors such as the age composition of the population, the incidence of smoking and air pollution, the prevalence of obesity, poverty and inequality, and the normal quality of health service delivery. An advantage of the P-score is that it takes into account such differences in ‘normal’ deaths between countries or regions."

(https://i.imgur.com/ZAfBlMS.png)

Study starts by listing reasons why U.S. should've been better prepared, ready, and ultimately experienced lower excess mortality rates than Europe - reasons such as: more time to prepare, younger population, and lower population density. Study defines statistical uses before comparing U.S. values to Europe. Study concludes excess mortality rates are worse, questioning "why the US, with its technical and institutional capabilities and other advantages cited, was far less effective in its response to COVID-19 than Europe?"

My knee jerk reaction is to believe that as a whole America is a much sicker, more unhealthy nation than we realize. Although we smoke less tobacco, to compare to Europe, Americans are more overweight, suffer higher rates of diabetes, eat more red meat, drink more sugary, acidic energy drinks, and most of all, lead the world in (ab)use of highly addictive benzodiazepines prescriptions (Xanax, Klonopin, Valium) which risks the population later defaulting to equally addictive Adderall, Ambien and ultimately Heroin and Meth.  

https://voxeu.org/article/us-excess-mortality-rate-covid-19-substantially-worse-europe-s -
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 17, 2021, 05:24:16 AM
I suspect the weight factor ALONE is sufficient to explain much of the disparity.  When I travel in Europe for a month, my brain "adjusts" to seeing thin people.  When I return, I'm struck by the difference.  In our local neighborhood, most folks are young and in fairly good shape, but if we drive to the 'burbs' or I go to Walmart, holy cows.

Obesity leads to diabetes, heart disease, the rest.  And I need to lose weight.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 17, 2021, 07:53:53 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 16, 2021, 03:27:15 PM
not on this thread

Utee is already annoyed by the unusually wintery weather in his neck of the woods
Ya but it has kind of a mellowing effect
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 17, 2021, 08:40:29 AM
being w/o power for more than 12 hours doesn't mellow most folks

well, folks I know
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on February 17, 2021, 09:20:50 AM
U.S. reaches 500,000 reported deaths:

(https://i.imgur.com/eO7vRRc.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 17, 2021, 09:27:16 AM
I like the 18.5 Million recovered better, so I'm gonna hold on to that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 17, 2021, 09:37:57 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 17, 2021, 08:40:29 AM
being w/o power for more than 12 hours doesn't mellow most folks

well, folks I know
its not that youre without power
heck we Texans have done that a lot from hurricanes
its the 12 degree temps that are concerning
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 18, 2021, 09:30:43 AM
Progress is good. I like progress.

(https://i.imgur.com/8vSzSpx.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 18, 2021, 02:14:14 PM
I get a free news feed from the NYT on my phone, it's often a useful  "what's up" quick summary.  And no, I don't take it as gospel, if anything looks askance I check further.  Today they had a short blurb on how climate change is responsible (maybe) for the Texas deep freeze.  And that COULD be true, they offered some explanation, but it reminded me how CC "deniers" laugh at such things, even if there is a reasonable explanation.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 18, 2021, 02:27:12 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 18, 2021, 02:14:14 PM
I get a free news feed from the NYT on my phone, it's often a useful  "what's up" quick summary.  And no, I don't take it as gospel, if anything looks askance I check further.  Today they had a short blurb on how climate change is responsible (maybe) for the Texas deep freeze.  And that COULD be true, they offered some explanation, but it reminded me how CC "deniers" laugh at such things, even if there is a reasonable explanation.


climate change may or may not be the Texas problem but again as Ive said many times before there is no proof man is causing it

folks always come up with climate change when what they really mean is man's bad ways
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 18, 2021, 02:40:16 PM
There will never be "proof", only evidence, some of which may convince some and won't convince others.

Georgia's COVID new reported cases rates continue to fall rapidly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 18, 2021, 03:08:44 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 18, 2021, 02:40:16 PM
There will never be "proof", only evidence, some of which may convince some and won't convince others.

Georgia's COVID new reported cases rates continue to fall rapidly.
as does the  country as a whole
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on February 18, 2021, 03:56:39 PM
The Minnesota Department of Health opened a Vaccine Connection registry this morning. This will help people get connected with appointments for vaccine once more widespread rollout begins. Apparently there were 50,000+ entries within an hour of rollout. Yours truly is part of it.

One of the questions was "Can you get to a site on very short notice?" to which I enthusiastically said Yes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 18, 2021, 03:58:41 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 18, 2021, 09:30:43 AM
Progress is good. I like progress.

(https://i.imgur.com/8vSzSpx.png)
So you're progressive then?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 18, 2021, 04:02:40 PM

Quote from: longhorn320 on February 18, 2021, 02:27:12 PM
climate change may or may not be the Texas problem but again as Ive said many times before there is no proof man is causing it

folks always come up with climate change when what they really mean is man's bad ways
It's more about how our bad ways alter the landscape/air/water in 10 years when it takes nature 1,000 years.  We don't give nature time to adjust to anything we do.  
I'm sure it's all just a big coincidence.  No proof.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 18, 2021, 04:10:13 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 18, 2021, 04:02:40 PM
It's more about how our bad ways alter the landscape/air/water in 10 years when it takes nature 1,000 years.  We don't give nature time to adjust to anything we do. 
I'm sure it's all just a big coincidence.  No proof.
What does "after the landscape/water in 10 years" mean?

sorry I dont speak OAM could you simplify that statement
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 18, 2021, 04:10:54 PM
Wrong thread dammit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 18, 2021, 04:12:02 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 18, 2021, 04:02:40 PM
It's more about how our bad ways alter the landscape/air/water in 10 years when it takes nature 1,000 years.  We don't give nature time to adjust to anything we do. 
I'm sure it's all just a big coincidence.  No proof.
Nature does not adjust to man

Man has to adjust to nature
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 18, 2021, 04:12:52 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 18, 2021, 04:10:54 PM
Wrong thread dammit.
sorry Im sure theres a place in hell for me

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 18, 2021, 04:26:31 PM
you're already in Houston
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 18, 2021, 04:31:36 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on February 18, 2021, 04:12:52 PM
sorry Im sure theres a place in hell for me


CDawg started it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 18, 2021, 04:34:33 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 18, 2021, 04:31:36 PM
CDawg started it.
well theres probably room for both of us
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 18, 2021, 06:52:12 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 18, 2021, 04:31:36 PM
CDawg started it.
True, I was confused.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 18, 2021, 06:59:20 PM
COVID has been boring lately, which is something that makes me very happy to say. 

Get through another three months of vaccine rollout, and I think we'll firmly be on the back end of this thing--at least in the US.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 18, 2021, 07:44:29 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 18, 2021, 06:59:20 PM
COVID has been boring lately, which is something that makes me very happy to say.

Get through another three months of vaccine rollout, and I think we'll firmly be on the back end of this thing--at least in the US.
I think youre right

at 1,000,000 a day vaccinated pace we will have herd immunity by June
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2021, 08:05:55 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on February 18, 2021, 07:44:29 PM
I think youre right

at 1,000,000 a day vaccinated pace we will have herd immunity by June
Probably don't even need that many or that long. Lots of people had it and didn't know it.

I'm thinking 10X here, but I'll stick at 3X to be conservative.

58 Million vaccinated to date, which is amazing, because we didn't have a vaccine a month ago.

28 Million cases to date - X3 = 84 Million.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on February 19, 2021, 09:57:48 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 18, 2021, 06:59:20 PM
COVID has been boring lately, which is something that makes me very happy to say.

Get through another three months of vaccine rollout, and I think we'll firmly be on the back end of this thing--at least in the US.

We'll be studying COVID's aftermath for years. For instance, U.S. Life Expectancy fell by a year: https://www.statnews.com/2021/02/18/u-s-life-expectancy-fell-by-a-year-in-the-first-half-of-2020-cdc-report-finds/


"Life expectancy at birth for the total U.S. population declined from 78.8 years in 2019 to 77.8 years for January through June 2020. During that same time period, life expectancy for non-Hispanic Black people decreased by 2.7 years (74.7 to 72); for Hispanic individuals, 1.9 years (81.8 to 79.9); and for non-Hispanic white people, 0.8 years (78.8 to 78). The Covid-19 pandemic is likely responsible for “the majority of the decline,” said Elizabeth Arias, a health scientist at the Mortality Statistics Branch of the NCHS and the lead author of the report."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 19, 2021, 10:23:42 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on February 19, 2021, 09:57:48 AM
We'll be studying COVID's aftermath for years. For instance, U.S. Life Expectancy fell by a year: https://www.statnews.com/2021/02/18/u-s-life-expectancy-fell-by-a-year-in-the-first-half-of-2020-cdc-report-finds/


"Life expectancy at birth for the total U.S. population declined from 78.8 years in 2019 to 77.8 years for January through June 2020. During that same time period, life expectancy for non-Hispanic Black people decreased by 2.7 years (74.7 to 72); for Hispanic individuals, 1.9 years (81.8 to 79.9); and for non-Hispanic white people, 0.8 years (78.8 to 78). The Covid-19 pandemic is likely responsible for “the majority of the decline,” said Elizabeth Arias, a health scientist at the Mortality Statistics Branch of the NCHS and the lead author of the report."
this is just math which includes covid deaths
the rest of us that never got covid had no change in life expectancy
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2021, 12:28:50 PM
Very interesting. I will have my blood tested before I get a second shot, for sure.

People Who Have Had Covid Should Get Single Vaccine Dose, Studies Suggest (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/people-who-have-had-covid-should-get-single-vaccine-dose-studies-suggest/ar-BB1dPCDL?ocid=msedgntp)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 19, 2021, 12:42:57 PM
studies suggest

studies done by experts
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 19, 2021, 12:56:11 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on February 19, 2021, 10:23:42 AM
this is just math which includes covid deaths
the rest of us that never got covid had no change in life expectancy
Idk, I've definitely gained some weight in the past year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2021, 01:10:16 PM
50 pounds down over here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 19, 2021, 01:11:35 PM
10 pounds down here, but a trip to Texas looming
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 19, 2021, 01:14:03 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2021, 01:10:16 PM
50 pounds down over here.
Great work!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 19, 2021, 01:14:13 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2021, 01:10:16 PM
50 pounds down over here.
Quote from: FearlessF on February 19, 2021, 01:11:35 PM

10 pounds down here, but a trip to Texas looming

What are you 2 peddling Hippy Lettuce?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 19, 2021, 01:17:22 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2021, 12:28:50 PM
Very interesting. I will have my blood tested before I get a second shot, for sure.

People Who Have Had Covid Should Get Single Vaccine Dose, Studies Suggest (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/people-who-have-had-covid-should-get-single-vaccine-dose-studies-suggest/ar-BB1dPCDL?ocid=msedgntp)

How would studies have been preformed with any reliance The vaccine has only been out for 2 months

Im highly skeptical of this
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 19, 2021, 01:25:19 PM
Really as far as any vaccine's effectiveness and/or long term negative reprisals - collateral damage in their book.Anything goes wrong they're off the hook.Oops Sorry but in your case it didn't work out
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 19, 2021, 01:29:22 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2021, 01:10:16 PM
50 pounds down over here.
Congrats, Badge!

My claim to fame is that I'm zero pounds up... Right now I'll take it lol...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2021, 01:29:48 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on February 19, 2021, 01:17:22 PM
How would studies have been preformed with any reliance The vaccine has only been out for 2 months

Im highly skeptical of this
They measured antibodies, before and after.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 19, 2021, 01:33:27 PM
On who?when?where? and how often?Your source may be accurate but it could be a bunch of hooey to garner funding
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2021, 01:40:30 PM
The latest study (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.05.21251182v1), which has not yet been published in a scientific journal, analyzed blood samples from people who have had Covid-19. The findings suggested that their immune systems would have trouble fending off B.1.351, the coronavirus variant first identified in South Africa.

But one shot of either the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccine significantly changed the picture: It amplified the amount of antibodies in their blood by a thousandfold — “a massive, massive boost,” said Andrew T. McGuire, an immunologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, who led the study.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2021, 02:09:06 PM
I hope this dood is right. Hope!!

Coronavirus Vaccines: Herd Immunity Possible by April | National Review (https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/all-kinds-of-great-news-on-covid/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 19, 2021, 02:15:48 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2021, 02:09:06 PM
I hope this dood is right. Hope!!

Coronavirus Vaccines: Herd Immunity Possible by April | National Review (https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/all-kinds-of-great-news-on-covid/)

the one shot benefit at 93% is much higher then we were told it was

if this is accurate then 1 shot is the way to go until everybody has had at least 1
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 19, 2021, 02:19:42 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2021, 02:09:06 PM
I hope this dood is right. Hope!!

Coronavirus Vaccines: Herd Immunity Possible by April | National Review (https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/all-kinds-of-great-news-on-covid/)

hah, anything is possible
so, he's right
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 19, 2021, 04:14:42 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2021, 01:40:30 PM
The latest study (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.05.21251182v1), which has not yet been published in a scientific journal, analyzed blood samples from people who have had Covid-19. 
A study that hasn't been published in an un-named journal.Excuse me for questioning the validity of that source.Now if you tell me the vaccine in question made you well after a dose was administered then there you have it.Something one could hang there hat on.I could dig some sources up that say the opposite - I hope your post is right BTW
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2021, 04:30:01 PM
I'm skeptical on much of this stuff too. Everyone is still learning. We're a year into this (that we truly know of).

I imagine it will be published upon completion of peer review.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 19, 2021, 04:32:00 PM
Coronavirus, is that still a thing?

It has completely disappeared here over the past 1.5 weeks...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 19, 2021, 04:36:58 PM
For me, it's somewhat that you have to take some of these things with a grain of salt...

One source is interesting. Two [independent] sources starts to look meaningful... Three starts to become pretty compelling evidence of a proposition.

Science is somewhat of a random [drunken] walk in the general direction of the truth. Any reasonably interesting proposition has to be narrowly enough true or false and complex enough to merit study or it's something we all know as obvious. So you can imagine that sometimes small differences in things like study design can suss out opposite conclusions from each other between two groups doing research. 

That's not a flaw. It's just part of the process. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 19, 2021, 04:37:23 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 19, 2021, 04:32:00 PM
Coronavirus, is that still a thing?

It has completely disappeared here over the past 1.5 weeks...
Really? 

Maybe I should pack up and move to Austin...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 19, 2021, 05:08:40 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 19, 2021, 04:37:23 PM
Really?

Maybe I should pack up and move to Austin...
Not sure I'd make that choice.  Turns out when people are freezing to death in their own homes because the state deliberately cut off their power, priorities tend to change...

I'm not sure whether we'll see a huge drop in COVID cases/hospitalizations because nobody has been able to go anywhere for a week and a half, or we'll see an increase because many families that weren't previously intermingling, had no choice but to cohabitate for the past week.

I've hosted 3 extra families at my house now, over the past week+.  I'm not particularly worried though, they were families we've already been intermingling with quite regularly over the past 9 months. I guess they could be considered our "pod" though we certainly haven't ever formalized it that way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 19, 2021, 05:33:21 PM
My daughter put in her order for a stand alone generator this morning

Its gonna set her back about $7,000 but it beats freezing to death
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2021, 05:34:32 PM
I'm doing a whole-house generator, but for different reasons.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 19, 2021, 05:35:46 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on February 19, 2021, 05:33:21 PM
My daughter put in her order for a stand alone generator this morning

Its gonna set her back about $7,000 but it beats freezing to death
oops there I go again
I know wrong thread
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 19, 2021, 05:36:18 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on February 19, 2021, 05:33:21 PM
My daughter put in her order for a stand alone generator this morning

Its gonna set her back about $7,000 but it beats freezing to death
Is that a whole-house genset, lh320?  

I've been considering doing something to patch in my portable 3500W genny that I use for the RV, and set it up to plug into the main circuit board at my house.  Really just looking to charge two circuits-- one for a refrigerator, and one for the fan for the natural gas furnace.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 19, 2021, 05:36:33 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2021, 05:34:32 PM
I'm doing a whole-house generator, but for different reasons.
thats what this is

runs off natural gas
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 19, 2021, 05:38:23 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2021, 05:34:32 PM
I'm doing a whole-house generator, but for different reasons.
Yup, I have friends along the Texas coast that have them, presumably for the same reasons as you're considering.

I don't think I really need a whole-house setup, but the option to cut-off from city power and run my own small genny on those two circuits, would be quite interesting at this point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 19, 2021, 05:39:19 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 19, 2021, 05:36:18 PM
Is that a whole-house genset, lh320? 

I've been considering doing something to patch in my portable 3500W genny that I use for the RV, and set it up to plug into the main circuit board at my house.  Really just looking to charge two circuits-- one for a refrigerator, and one for the fan for the natural gas furnace.

theres lots of good companies that would be happy to give you a quote

these things have gotten really advanced

hell they even monitor themselves and will tell you if theres a problem
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2021, 05:39:59 PM
F it. This has to be, by far, the longest thread known to man. It would be even longer if me and UTee wouldn't have deleted a million posts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 19, 2021, 05:41:08 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2021, 05:39:59 PM
F it. This has to be, by far, the longest thread known to man. It would be even longer if me and UTee wouldn't have deleted a million posts.
yep most of them probably mine
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 19, 2021, 05:41:28 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2021, 05:39:59 PM
F it. This has to be, by far, the longest thread known to man. It would be even longer if me and UTee wouldn't have deleted a million posts.

(https://i.imgur.com/nHto9G2.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2021, 05:41:46 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on February 19, 2021, 05:39:19 PM
theres lots of good companies that would be happy to give you a quote

these things have gotten really advanced

hell they even monitor themselves and will tell you if theres a problem
My quote is $17-19K, but that will run everything, including the pool.

No gas here, so my only choice is diesel. Generac. Made in Wisconsin.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2021, 05:42:11 PM
WRONG THREAD
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 19, 2021, 05:43:01 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 19, 2021, 05:36:18 PM
Is that a whole-house genset, lh320? 

I've been considering doing something to patch in my portable 3500W genny that I use for the RV, and set it up to plug into the main circuit board at my house.  Really just looking to charge two circuits-- one for a refrigerator, and one for the fan for the natural gas furnace.

Her house is only about 2400 sf and 1 story so doing the whole house is not a huge job
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 19, 2021, 05:43:20 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on February 19, 2021, 05:39:19 PM
theres lots of good companies that would be happy to give you a quote

these things have gotten really advanced

hell they even monitor themselves and will tell you if theres a problem
Indeed. 


I basically lucked out this time.  And I'm grateful, of course.

But it's highlighted a gap in my preparedness plan that I didn't know existed and that I don't like at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 19, 2021, 05:45:01 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 19, 2021, 05:43:20 PM
Indeed.


I basically lucked out this time.  And I'm grateful, of course.

But it's highlighted a gap in my preparedness plan that I didn't know existed and that I don't like at all.

youre not alone

I also didnt lose power

felt like Id won the lottery
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 19, 2021, 05:47:38 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on February 19, 2021, 05:45:01 PM
youre not alone

I also didnt lose power

felt like Id won the lottery
Amen, brutha.

It did make me REALLY REALLY happy I was able to house so many family and friends though, and help them through this tough time.

Also, luckily, neither my parents nor the parents of my i s c & a aggie wife, lost power for anything other than brief/rolling periods.  And they currently also have water which seems to be rare in Austin, even if they are on a boil-water notice for the foreseeable future.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 19, 2021, 05:48:12 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2021, 05:41:46 PM
My quote is $17-19K, but that will run everything, including the pool.

No gas here, so my only choice is diesel. Generac. Made in Wisconsin.
that seems a little high but maybe you live in a castle

dont forget the draw bridge over your mote which needs power to be raised and lowered
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 19, 2021, 05:50:10 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2021, 05:34:32 PM
I'm doing a whole-house generator, but for different reasons.
As a Florida resident for five years, who was told “we haven’t had a hurricane in 10 years”, who has now lived through 3 hurricanes, I say to you:  great investment!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 19, 2021, 05:51:37 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on February 19, 2021, 05:50:10 PM
As a Florida resident for five years, who was told “we haven’t had a hurricane in 10 years”, who has now lived through 3 hurricanes, I say to you:  great investment!
thats what I told my daughter

it will add to the value of her house
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on February 19, 2021, 06:08:31 PM
I got a quote a few years ago on a whole house generator.  They wanted 12k.  I just hated the thought of plunking down that much money for something I might use once every few years.  I’m sure the next time we have a multiple day stretch without power I’ll regret not getting it, but I just couldn’t pull the trigger on it.

The last time our power was out for more than like 2-3 hours was in 2012 and my son was born right in the middle of that madness.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 19, 2021, 06:20:58 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on February 19, 2021, 06:08:31 PM
I got a quote a few years ago on a whole house generator.  They wanted 12k.  I just hated the thought of plunking down that much money for something I might use once every few years.  I’m sure the next time we have a multiple day stretch without power I’ll regret not getting it, but I just couldn’t pull the trigger on it.

The last time our power was out for more than like 2-3 hours was in 2012 and my son was born right in the middle of that madness.
well here its a different matter cause we get hurricanes in Houston all the time.  If we have a direct hit we could be without power for 3 to 4 weeks

12k seems a bit high 

pays to shop around

for top of the line for a 3000 sf house 
the price should be under 10k

but maybe thats the Texas discount 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 19, 2021, 06:31:09 PM
just to get back on point below are the latest graphs Im doing on new positives and new deaths from covid

(https://i.imgur.com/6Tt5teY.png)


(https://i.imgur.com/CoTPwl2.png)

these are 7 day moving averages
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on February 19, 2021, 06:34:18 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on February 19, 2021, 06:20:58 PM
well here its a different matter cause we get hurricanes in Houston all the time.  If we have a direct hit we could be without power for 3 to 4 weeks

12k seems a bit high

pays to shop around

for top of the line for a 3000 sf house
the price should be under 10k

but maybe thats the Texas discount


Yeah, I’ve mentioned that quote to a few people and it always raises eyebrows, especially considering my house isn’t all that big (roughly 2800 sq. Ft).  But, like you mentioned, you guys get more severe weather than we do.  I still might do it someday but it isn’t a big priority.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 19, 2021, 09:19:42 PM
I purchase 16KW Generacs out of Omaha, installed with pad and cold weather kits for around $10K

should run your entire house
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 20, 2021, 09:10:12 AM
My neighbor across the street works for Kohler and I was thinking about getting prices.We have trees all over the place
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 20, 2021, 10:05:38 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/DVYpyV8.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 20, 2021, 10:10:49 AM
Amazing how much spread there is, I'm still on a wait list here in GA.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 20, 2021, 10:45:46 AM
seems some of these plans could have been thought out before the vaccine was available

obviously, plans chance as you implement and learn lessons going forward, but........

large venues such as stadiums and drive thru options should have been planned upon earlier
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 20, 2021, 10:50:50 AM
my understanding is that we have not yet reached a point where the vaccine supply is enough to start handing it out in stadiums

I think we are still in the stage of the vaccine going to high priority groups
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 21, 2021, 10:16:24 AM
This would be a big help.

Pfizer says its COVID vaccine doesn’t need to be stored at ultra-freezing temps anymore | Fox Business (https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-doesnt-need-to-be-stored-at-ultra-freezing-temps-anymore)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 21, 2021, 10:41:32 AM
There simply isn't enough vaccine around here.  The issue is not doing the vaccinations, it is a lack of supply.

I blame Trump, or Biden, I forget which one I hate the most today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on February 21, 2021, 10:49:21 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 21, 2021, 10:41:32 AM

Trump, or Biden, 


Turds
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 21, 2021, 10:54:34 AM
I'm blaming someone, for something.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 21, 2021, 11:25:42 AM
China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on February 21, 2021, 12:05:35 PM
Yes, supply and bad weather are to blame.

I know enough people in the delivery biz to know that a large number of vaccine doses are currently sitting in a car port on the ramp of the Memphis airport.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 21, 2021, 12:13:13 PM
There was a US mail truck lot snowed in during the two Cleveland snow storms before Christmas.We received mail stamped Dec 3rd in FLA get here Dec 28th.So it is a thing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 21, 2021, 02:00:47 PM
Interesting read.

Transcript: Matt Pottinger on "Face the Nation," February 21, 2021 - CBS News (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-matt-pottinger-on-face-the-nation-february-21-2021/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on February 21, 2021, 07:22:47 PM
Happy to report that I survived Freezemageddon 2021.  Lost power early Monday morning for 26 hours.  Power turned back on 9ish AM tuesday.  Lost again Tuesday night, returned Wednesday night.  One broke pipe in the attic, no major damage.  Lost water for most of the week as well (city water). 

Ran my little Honda inverter generator and a propane heater.  First camping trip of the year out of the way and didn't even leave home. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 22, 2021, 07:58:30 AM
Today I blame Eastern Michigan.  For everything.

Glad to see our Texas friends survived.  My son had power the entire time but almost no water and no food.  I like the boil water advisory when you have no power.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 22, 2021, 08:16:42 AM
When landscaping = firewood
.
500,000+ deaths and the most optimistic thing I can say is don't be one of the next, last 150,000.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 22, 2021, 08:20:55 AM
Anyone under 60 has a pretty low mortality risk from COVID sans other conditions.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 22, 2021, 09:15:22 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 22, 2021, 07:58:30 AM
Today I blame Eastern Michigan.  For everything.
You need to focus a little more on UNC-Chapel Hill they're in knee deep with the Illuminati.We've discussed this at the Fraternal Order of the Odd Fellows consultations :67:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 22, 2021, 09:37:44 AM
Oh, I know UNC is too far gone to whine about.

Eastern Michigan deserves to have someone hating on them.

UNC doesn't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 22, 2021, 09:46:03 AM
Bollocks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on February 22, 2021, 10:26:31 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 22, 2021, 07:58:30 AM
Today I blame Eastern Michigan.  For everything.

Glad to see our Texas friends survived.  My son had power the entire time but almost no water and no food.  I like the boil water advisory when you have no power.
If you have a NG stove you can use that.  We used a camping stove, but we didn't have any water anyways so there was nothing to boil.  It sucked all around.  It amazes me how many people had power the whole time and how many were out of power the whole time (~4 days).  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 22, 2021, 10:32:41 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/mOJiVNV.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 22, 2021, 10:40:32 AM
Quote from: Gigem on February 22, 2021, 10:26:31 AM
If you have a NG stove you can use that.  We used a camping stove, but we didn't have any water anyways so there was nothing to boil.  It sucked all around.  It amazes me how many people had power the whole time and how many were out of power the whole time (~4 days). 

Most urban single family residences around here are plumbed with natural gas from the city.  Many rural ones have individual or community-shared propane, the large tanks.  But a lot of apartments and cheap housing are electric-only, it's just cheaper to build that way.

At my house wehave natural gas cooking range, fireplace, and furnace, and one of my outdoor grills is propane.  So I'd have been able to boil water without electricity, as would most family residences around me, but obviously a lot of folks wouldn't be able to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 22, 2021, 12:11:11 PM
We're all electric here, I realize a lot of folks have gas ranges.

I imagine most apartments are electric save the high end ones.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 22, 2021, 12:49:32 PM
No gas here, but I have butane stove, propane oven and a propane grill.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 22, 2021, 01:11:51 PM
we have gas range

most houses around here in Texas take advantage of natural gas prices
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 22, 2021, 01:43:07 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 22, 2021, 12:49:32 PM
No gas here, but I have butane stove, propane oven and a propane grill.
Makes sense but I've honestly never heard of it being used in/on home stoves.I've read-been told propane burns cleaner than NG but I don't know about butane
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 22, 2021, 02:51:09 PM
It's a single burner for outdoor use only. Butane burns really hot, and it's infrared so wind doesn't affect it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on February 22, 2021, 03:18:00 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 22, 2021, 08:16:42 AM
When landscaping = firewood
.
500,000+ deaths and the most optimistic thing I can say is don't be one of the next, last 150,000.

I was surprised the death toll threshold of 500,000 (surpassed last week) isn't getting much more attention and leading the headlines, but I think the tracking website I use is slightly ahead of what our government counts as official. It should be a big talking point when made official, and there should be a lot of talk as to why, why, why (!) the U.S. death toll numbers are so substantially worse than the rest of the world. There are reasons we've delved into in this thread, but where is the heavy lifting going on across the airwaves? 


(https://i.imgur.com/2VfdKws.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 22, 2021, 03:53:44 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/qyYOUOo.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 22, 2021, 04:41:30 PM
As U.S. Death Toll Nears Half A Million, Biden Plans To Order Flags To Half Staff : Coronavirus Updates : NPR (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/02/22/970233291/as-u-s-death-toll-nears-half-a-million-biden-plans-to-order-flags-to-half-staff)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 22, 2021, 04:57:01 PM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on February 22, 2021, 03:18:00 PM
I was surprised the death toll threshold of 500,000 (surpassed last week) isn't getting much more attention and leading the headlines, but I think the tracking website I use is slightly ahead of what our government counts as official. It should be a big talking point when made official, and there should be a lot of talk as to why, why, why (!) the U.S. death toll numbers are so substantially worse than the rest of the world. There are reasons we've delved into in this thread, but where is the heavy lifting going on across the airwaves?


Much has to do with comorbidities, and I also think there has been some over-reporting going on.

I took your list and sorted by deaths per million, for context.


(https://i.imgur.com/sUwlNj3.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 23, 2021, 12:55:45 AM
500,000 is a lot to sweep under the rug.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 23, 2021, 05:54:06 AM
Tell that to the CCP.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on February 23, 2021, 07:28:27 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 23, 2021, 05:54:06 AM
Tell that to the CCP.
Is that short for Cuo...?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 23, 2021, 07:36:37 AM
I just got my appointment for vaccine #1 Thursday morning.  Finally.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 23, 2021, 07:49:01 AM
Quote from: MarqHusker on February 23, 2021, 07:28:27 AM
Is that short for Cuo...?
mo?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 23, 2021, 07:50:15 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 23, 2021, 07:36:37 AM
I just got my appointment for vaccine #1 Thursday morning.  Finally.
Congratulations.

By April, supply will exceed demand, and by summer we'll be in pretty good shape. Hopefully in time for Memorial Day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on February 23, 2021, 10:31:18 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 22, 2021, 04:57:01 PM
Much has to do with comorbidities, and I also think there has been some over-reporting going on.

I took your list and sorted by deaths per million, for context.


Comorbidities contribute to the high number but shouldn't be written off because comorbidities, much with other diseases, is how Covid kills, in tandem. Even sorting deaths per million, the U.S. is SEVENTH in the world (removing San Marino & Gibraltar). How, given our status when it comes to wealth, global trade leader, high medical technology, expansive middle class, and world's ranked university system, did we fail Covid so badly??? I said this a few pages ago, but as a whole America is a much sicker, more unhealthy nation than we realize. The same parallel goes for UK as well.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 23, 2021, 10:45:41 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on February 23, 2021, 10:31:18 AM

Comorbidities contribute to the high number but shouldn't be written off because comorbidities, much with other diseases, is how Covid kills, in tandem. Even sorting deaths per million, the U.S. is SEVENTH in the world (removing San Marino & Gibraltar). How, given our status when it comes to wealth, global trade leader, high medical technology, expansive middle class, and world's ranked university system, did we fail Covid so badly??? I said this a few pages ago, but as a whole America is a much sicker, more unhealthy nation than we realize. The same parallel goes for UK as well.


I would look toward mobility for some answers. People were coming here from China until the end of January. Then, in March, people came back here in droves from Europe when that travel was closed.

US citizens returning from overseas say they are waiting hours for screening | CNN Travel
 (https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/coronavirus-airport-screening-sunday/index.html)
Americans travelled interstate throughout the whole thing. "We" move around, a lot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on February 23, 2021, 10:54:18 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 22, 2021, 04:57:01 PM
Much has to do with comorbidities, and I also think there has been some over-reporting going on.

I took your list and sorted by deaths per million, for context.
I assumed we had better detection than many, worse control than others. Plus more mobility and a bit of a rebellious streak. 

I'd assume comorbidities would be higher in a lot of countries. Our health system isn't at the top worldwide, but I'd assume in the top tier (even if the job attachment part is wild and weird). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 23, 2021, 10:56:48 AM
Lots of people have flocked here from abroad to have surgeries done, and for special treatments.

Gotta be a reason for that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on February 23, 2021, 11:07:39 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 23, 2021, 10:56:48 AM
Lots of people have flocked here from abroad to have surgeries done, and for special treatments.

Gotta be a reason for that.
There is, though it doesn't tell a full story. 

I had family who worked in a pretty notable hospital for special treatments and advance surgeries. Lotta well to do folks came thought. 

Downside was it was kinda an administrative mess if you just had something mundane wrong with you. Lots of extra tests and being sure. But yeah, we're generally in good shape on the healthcare front, even with the vestigial system. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 23, 2021, 12:54:25 PM
Don't forget the HLA type by geo...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 23, 2021, 01:34:00 PM
That's a good point to consider also.

We have a lot of things against us, as far as managing a pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on February 23, 2021, 03:12:43 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 23, 2021, 01:34:00 PM
That's a good point to consider also.

We have a lot of things against us, as far as managing a pandemic.
I’ve brought that up several times.  I find it hard to compare the US numbers to, honestly, any other country in the world.  No other nation on earth has the travel dynamic, both international and domestic, that we do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 23, 2021, 04:25:40 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on February 23, 2021, 03:12:43 PM
I’ve brought that up several times.  I find it hard to compare the US numbers to, honestly, any other country in the world.  No other nation on earth has the travel dynamic, both international and domestic, that we do.
You can sort-of-compare the USA to a conglomeration of the top 5 most populous Western European countries.  But even then, they're able to close down travel across national borders in a way that we can't do here with respect to state borders. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 25, 2021, 09:10:35 AM
Just got vaccine
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 25, 2021, 09:58:33 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 25, 2021, 09:10:35 AM
Just got vaccine
Great

which vaccine was it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 25, 2021, 10:03:03 AM
Pfizer.  Very well organized system this time, was administered by an RN.  They almost have too many people standing around directing folks, I bet the gummint is paying for it.  I know a lot of older folks are coming, but they don't need four people to direct you downstairs.

Had to sit 15 minutes after, zero pain or soreness.  So fahjehdjkcsjdvjdsx        svlfkd5344W&*(DJK
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 25, 2021, 10:27:39 AM
Did someone invite you to be vaccinated or did you request it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 25, 2021, 10:28:30 AM
The soreness is delayed, wait a couple of days.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 25, 2021, 10:34:39 AM
Yep. 

From the experiences I've heard, the arm soreness is probably likely to start this evening or into tomorrow morning. Most people I've heard haven't had much in the way of other side effects from the first shot, but the second shot is where you're more likely to feel run down for a day or two.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 25, 2021, 10:39:39 AM
I had been on the county waiting list, but I got an email from the hospital where I had my surgery in August and jumped on it.  The wife got hers at the county board of health and that place was a zoo, it was really bizarre, and a long drive.

I had to drive past it and do a U turn and then turn left and do a U turn and then wait in line, and they held cars up just asking why we were there when there was plenty of room in the parking lot.  Traffic was a total mess, for no reason.

The wife already had #2, had zero reaction, as did our neighbor.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 25, 2021, 10:56:10 AM
The fact that we move around a lot between states is why it was stupid to leave covid things to the states to sort out to begin with.  It wasn't about WHO made that decision (indecision, really), but that it was stupid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 25, 2021, 11:04:02 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 25, 2021, 10:56:10 AM
The fact that we move around a lot between states is why it was stupid to leave covid things to the states to sort out to begin with.  It wasn't about WHO made that decision (indecision, really), but that it was stupid.
There was no choice 
It had to be left to the states
How many times do we have to tell you that by law this is a state matter
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 25, 2021, 11:10:53 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 25, 2021, 10:56:10 AM
The fact that we move around a lot between states is why it was stupid to leave covid things to the states to sort out to begin with.  It wasn't about WHO made that decision (indecision, really), but that it was stupid.
It's a feature, or a bug, depending on your perspective, of our federal system. We leave most police powers and most emergency powers to the states. 

I'm not sure that many of the actions that you would want the federal government to take would be found Constitutional. There are instances where the federal government can assist, but often it requires the states to request their assistance, it cannot be forced.

Now, you may claim that a well-crafted response at the federal level, if the federal government HAD the powers you seek, would have made our response to COVID better. Maybe that's true; maybe it's not--after all, I'm not sure the person in charge of the executive branch last spring would have led a well-crafted response and I think you'd agree. But most of us who are in favor of the federal system we have would argue that giving that much power to the federal government would have a lot of other negative consequences in other areas, and possibly even with 500K dead from COVID, wouldn't be worth it. 

If government is benevolent and intelligent and possesses perfect information about everything, it's a wonderful thing to centralize everything. That would be utopia. But government is led by people, and people are neither universally benevolent nor intelligent nor possess perfect information. So we avoid centralizing everything, because that would be Soviet Russia or modern China. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 25, 2021, 11:13:55 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 25, 2021, 11:10:53 AM
It's a feature, or a bug, depending on your perspective, of our federal system. We leave most police powers and most emergency powers to the states.

I'm not sure that many of the actions that you would want the federal government to take would be found Constitutional. There are instances where the federal government can assist, but often it requires the states to request their assistance, it cannot be forced.

Now, you may claim that a well-crafted response at the federal level, if the federal government HAD the powers you seek, would have made our response to COVID better. Maybe that's true; maybe it's not--after all, I'm not sure the person in charge of the executive branch last spring would have led a well-crafted response and I think you'd agree. But most of us who are in favor of the federal system we have would argue that giving that much power to the federal government would have a lot of other negative consequences in other areas, and possibly even with 500K dead from COVID, wouldn't be worth it.

If government is benevolent and intelligent and possesses perfect information about everything, it's a wonderful thing to centralize everything. That would be utopia. But government is led by people, and people are neither universally benevolent nor intelligent nor possess perfect information. So we avoid centralizing everything, because that would be Soviet Russia or modern China.
This.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 25, 2021, 11:23:59 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on February 25, 2021, 11:13:55 AM
This.
THIS^2
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 25, 2021, 12:27:12 PM
Sure, this.
Unless there's a pandemic, which knows no borders.  Then, we should be communist Russia until a date specified on a document.  
There's no good reason 500,000 have had to die (or 200,000 or 12,000 - depending how deeply you're down with conspiracy theories).  

But I get it.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 25, 2021, 12:29:55 PM
I don't believe the numbers out of Russia.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 25, 2021, 12:32:13 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 25, 2021, 12:29:55 PM
I don't believe the numbers out of Russia.
Ah, well then, could I interest you in some CCP propaganda instead?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 25, 2021, 12:38:14 PM
Sure. Iran too please.

Those countries are just so good at what they do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 25, 2021, 01:05:50 PM
Well they were ahead of the curve with the masks - they have that going for them

(https://i.imgur.com/WyUgsKu.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 25, 2021, 03:00:08 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 25, 2021, 12:27:12 PM
Sure, this.
Unless there's a pandemic, which knows no borders.  Then, we should be communist Russia until a date specified on a document. 
There's no good reason 500,000 have had to die (or 200,000 or 12,000 - depending how deeply you're down with conspiracy theories). 

But I get it. 
When you tell the feds that they get all kinds of crazy powers, but only in emergencies...

...we're going to have a lot more "emergencies". 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 26, 2021, 04:49:30 AM
So, I had the Pfizer vaccine yesterday morning.  I drove home no problem.  Within an hour or so, I started to feel fatigued, very much like you feel when you realize you're getting sick.  I lay down in bed and read mostly and went to sleep around 9:30 PM, woke up at 3 AM.  I feel pretty normal now, for me.  I think this is a pretty typical reaction to Shot One.

The place I went was far better organized than where the wife went and they were running folks through probably 10-12 per minute.  I got a card that has the details on it including space on the back for Shot Two.

I read the J&J vaccine is about to be approved for E use.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 26, 2021, 10:17:25 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 26, 2021, 04:49:30 AM
So, I had the Pfizer vaccine yesterday morning.  I drove home no problem.  Within an hour or so, I started to feel fatigued, very much like you feel when you realize you're getting sick.  I lay down in bed and read mostly and went to sleep around 9:30 PM, woke up at 3 AM.  I feel pretty normal now, for me.  I think this is a pretty typical reaction to Shot One.

The place I went was far better organized than where the wife went and they were running folks through probably 10-12 per minute.  I got a card that has the details on it including space on the back for Shot Two.

I read the J&J vaccine is about to be approved for E use.
This vaccine only requires 1 shot
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 26, 2021, 11:01:03 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on February 26, 2021, 10:17:25 AM
This vaccine only requires 1 shot
What I don't get is that it's also only estimated at 66% effective.

That's great if it's the only vaccine available, but with Pfizer and Moderna around at 90%+, I don't want to go near J&J.

Maybe J&J would be good for people who have already had confirmed cases of COVID, since they should have some natural immunity. Or for the absolute least vulnerable populations (the young and healthy). Or for low-income countries where it might be hard to supply Pfizer/Moderna and giving the entire population one dose rather than half the population two doses is an improvement...

But I want Pfizer or Moderna. How can I feel good about going out into the world with a 1/3 chance that the vaccine wasn't effective? 1 in 20 I can take. 1 in 3? No, give me the good stuff, Doc!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 26, 2021, 11:07:02 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 26, 2021, 11:01:03 AM
What I don't get is that it's also only estimated at 66% effective.

That's great if it's the only vaccine available, but with Pfizer and Moderna around at 90%+, I don't want to go near J&J.

Maybe J&J would be good for people who have already had confirmed cases of COVID, since they should have some natural immunity. Or for the absolute least vulnerable populations (the young and healthy). Or for low-income countries where it might be hard to supply Pfizer/Moderna and giving the entire population one dose rather than half the population two doses is an improvement...

But I want Pfizer or Moderna. How can I feel good about going out into the world with a 1/3 chance that the vaccine wasn't effective? 1 in 20 I can take. 1 in 3? No, give me the good stuff, Doc!
my exact thought also
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 26, 2021, 11:10:39 AM
The J&J vaccine virtually eliminates hospitalizations, which is THE key goal.  It also was tested when variants were extant, it could be more effective had it been tested earlier.  They also are looking at providing a booster in 6 months or so of the J&J.  In the mean time, it's better than nothing, and really a LOT better than nothing.

If you get the J&J and contract COVID, you almost certainly will have a mild case.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 26, 2021, 11:15:32 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 26, 2021, 11:10:39 AM
The J&J vaccine virtually eliminates hospitalizations, which is THE key goal.  It also was tested when variants were extant, it could be more effective had it been tested earlier.  They also are looking at providing a booster in 6 months or so of the J&J.  In the mean time, it's better than nothing, and really a LOT better than nothing.

If you get the J&J and contract COVID, you almost certainly will have a mild case.
I cant see why anyone would go with J&J when they will have the others available within the next 2 or 3 months

I wonder what 1 shot of the J&J plus 1 shot of the other vaccines would do
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 26, 2021, 11:16:07 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 26, 2021, 11:10:39 AM
The J&J vaccine virtually eliminates hospitalizations, which is THE key goal. It also was tested when variants were extant, it could be more effective had it been tested earlier.  They also are looking at providing a booster in 6 months or so of the J&J.  In the mean time, it's better than nothing, and really a LOT better than nothing.

If you get the J&J and contract COVID, you almost certainly will have a mild case.
That's not MY goal.  That is-- theoretically-- the goal from a sheer public-good viewpoint.

But MY goal in getting a vaccine, is to then NOT get the disease, and take any chances that it's only a mild case. 

I do think the J&J would be good for the applications bwar pointed out-- the young and healthy, folks who've already had COVID, and poor/developing countries that lack the infrastructure to support the more stringent requirements involving storage and distribution of the Moderna and Pfizer shorts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 26, 2021, 11:21:01 AM
I'd rather have 200 million with the J&J alone than 100 million with a Pfizer.

I suspect we'll need annuals anyway.

My arm today is not remotely sore.  I feel pretty good right now.  I was "OK" yesterday but it was the feeling you get before you get sick.

I guess that makes sense.

The Biggest Threat of this pandemic was hospitals being overrun.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 26, 2021, 11:28:33 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 26, 2021, 11:21:01 AM
I'd rather have 200 million with the J&J alone than 100 million with a Pfizer.

I suspect we'll need annuals anyway.

My arm today is not remotely sore.  I feel pretty good right now.  I was "OK" yesterday but it was the feeling you get before you get sick.

I guess that makes sense.

The Biggest Threat of this pandemic was hospitals being overrun.

Like I said, from the viewpoint of Utlilitarianism, that makes sense

For me personally, I want the good stuff.  

The J&J vaccine probably has its place, in those applications previously mentioned.  It's not a total loss.

But when the time comes, it's not the one I'm going to bother with.

If the J&J vaccine had preceded the others by months, I'd be more supportive of it, as the ONLY option in the early going.  But instead it has lagged by months.  It still has a place in the world, but it won't have a place in my arm.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on February 26, 2021, 11:56:04 AM
Minnesota announced yesterday the plan for expansion of vaccine availability. However, this won't happen until 70% of the state's O65s get their shots. Estimates for that are the end of March, but could vary depending on increases in vaccine supply.

(https://mn.gov/covid19/assets/vax-timeline-full-details-final-v2_tcm1148-469474.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 26, 2021, 04:17:07 PM
are these vaccines going to be given to very young people or is there a minimum age to be given it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 27, 2021, 06:38:15 AM
At the moment, they are for 16 and older.  Companies are  running trials on under 16 and pregnant women now.

The original trials excluded these folks so the emergency use does not include them, though pregnant women can get the shot by signing a waiver, but not many over 65 get pregnant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 27, 2021, 08:51:39 AM
CD did you receive your 2nd shot?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 27, 2021, 09:01:31 AM
I got shot one Thursday, shot two is March 18.  The wife got both already.

I got another invitation from the county this time for shot one, so this is gathering steam here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 27, 2021, 09:12:24 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 27, 2021, 06:38:15 AM
At the moment, they are for 16 and older.  Companies are  running trials on under 16 and pregnant women now.

The original trials excluded these folks so the emergency use does not include them, though pregnant women can get the shot by signing a waiver, but not many over 65 get pregnant.
If thats the case then we will be fully vaccinated under current rules at about 250,000,000
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 27, 2021, 11:02:00 AM
My i s c &a aggie wife got shot #2 today.  She had no reaction to shot#1, so if there's going to be one, this will probably be it.  Hopefully not, of course.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 27, 2021, 11:04:18 AM
I got an email from the county offering an appointment yesterday, so this appears to be freeing up.

They were processing people very efficiently at the hospital I went to, doing at least 5 a minute, it might have taken two minutes per shot and they had 10+ booths.

My shooter was a rather attractive RN.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 27, 2021, 11:06:09 AM
Yeah my buddy who is a first respnder and got his shots over a month ago, said that the volunteer staff and shooters were all either attractive nursing students, or attractive RNs.  

My wife never commented on her experience, and I did not ask... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 27, 2021, 11:11:58 AM
I just checked the card they gave me on my first shot on Jan 29 - no 2nd shot date on it.  So I guess I'm still just waiting on an email.

HA!
I looked up the website I originally signed up on and today is the last day of my 2nd-shot window.  Made an appt for 1:12.
It's way over in Chandler.....doubt they'll provide any gas money. 
.
Oh there goes OAM, looking for a hand-out!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 27, 2021, 11:13:03 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 27, 2021, 11:11:58 AM
I just checked the card they gave me on my first shot on Jan 29 - no 2nd shot date on it.  So I guess I'm still just waiting on an email.
Is there a phone# or email address to follow up?  They should have scheduled you by now, I think.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 27, 2021, 11:16:12 AM
After my shot, I had to sit 15 minutes, and another attractive lady gave me the information to register for Shot #2,  March 18, which I did.  They will fill out my card at that time, the reverse side.

Maybe these ladies had moustaches and bad teeth though.

I feel a bit hungover this morning.  I kind of celebrated last night though.

I'm planning a trip to Utah in May.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 27, 2021, 11:17:15 AM
I had forgotten - they emailed me when I got my first shot, with a window to register for my 2nd shot, but after trying over and over to schedule something - I gave up.  
Looks like I lucked out at the last minute this morning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 27, 2021, 11:18:07 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 27, 2021, 11:16:12 AM


I'm planning a trip to Utah in May.
Southern Utah or Scary Utah?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 27, 2021, 11:34:50 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 27, 2021, 11:16:12 AM
After my shot, I had to sit 15 minutes, and another attractive lady gave me the information to register for Shot #2,  March 18, which I did.  They will fill out my card at that time, the reverse side.

Maybe these ladies had moustaches and bad teeth though.

I feel a bit hungover this morning.  I kind of celebrated last night though.
You're seeing a lot of attractive young women.Maybe they're really trying out the little blue pill in injection form and the excuse to get you in there is a ruse
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 27, 2021, 11:44:46 AM
We'll stay part of the time in Park City, Utah.  Seeing some national parks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 01, 2021, 08:37:21 AM
Metrics looking pretty good in Florida.

(https://i.imgur.com/U9vzVFT.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 01, 2021, 10:34:16 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on February 26, 2021, 11:56:04 AM
Minnesota announced yesterday the plan for expansion of vaccine availability. However, this won't happen until 70% of the state's O65s get their shots. Estimates for that are the end of March, but could vary depending on increases in vaccine supply.

(https://mn.gov/covid19/assets/vax-timeline-full-details-final-v2_tcm1148-469474.png)
guessing Iowa is similar to Minnesoota.  I should get a shot in June.  Pretty much what was expected back on January 1st.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 02, 2021, 03:43:55 PM
Texas set to release the Kraken

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/gov-abbott-to-share-exciting-news-at-130-p-m-press-conference-tuesday/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 02, 2021, 04:01:33 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 02, 2021, 03:43:55 PM
Texas set to release the Kraken

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/gov-abbott-to-share-exciting-news-at-130-p-m-press-conference-tuesday/
Hmm.

“What Abbott is doing is extraordinarily dangerous. He is the worst Governor in modern Texas history. This will kill Texans. Our country’s infectious disease specialists have warned that we should not put our guard down even as we make progress towards vaccinations. Abbott doesn’t care.”


The same has been said about Florida.


(https://i.imgur.com/8kmlJR7.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 02, 2021, 04:05:17 PM
I got news for ya

Texas already was open and has been for months
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 02, 2021, 04:15:03 PM
just curious... why does the graph start with Mass at #4?

afraid of the top 3?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 02, 2021, 04:15:14 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 02, 2021, 04:05:17 PM
I got news for ya

Texas already was open and has been for months
I know, but some areas were locally shut down, no?

#27 FL has been wide open since June. Wisconsin never closed.

WI is #37 on that deaths/million list.

CA is #30.

The Science.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 02, 2021, 04:17:05 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 02, 2021, 04:15:03 PM
just curious... why does the graph start with Mass at #4?

afraid of the top 3?
Oops. Sorry.


(https://i.imgur.com/c1STIGM.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 02, 2021, 04:17:40 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 02, 2021, 04:05:17 PM
I got news for ya

Texas already was open and has been for months
yup, we were at Duff's famous wings.  Place was packed. a couple tables were not open for distancing but it was probably 80% capacity with folks standing at the door waiting for the next table.  I didn't notice tables unusable at Hooters.
Masks were required.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 02, 2021, 04:18:54 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 02, 2021, 04:17:05 PM
Oops. Sorry.


(https://i.imgur.com/c1STIGM.png)
as I expected, Andrew Cuomo strikes again!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 02, 2021, 04:19:38 PM
Georgia has been "open" since April 23, but not really.  Large groups are still not allowed, conferences, ball games, without spacing.  I think spacing in places like churches is individually done by the church.  Folks in assisted living are still very isolated.  And we do have some further local ordinances.

Every restaurant is still at limited seating capacity.

The decline has leveled out, I hope we're not in for another wave.  Vaccinations do appear to be gaining momentum.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 02, 2021, 04:20:35 PM
what do you cornsider open?

Iowa has no limits on seating, no mask requirement, no restrictions a TALL

South Dakota never did.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 02, 2021, 04:28:49 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 02, 2021, 04:20:35 PM
what do you cornsider open?

Iowa has no limits on seating, no mask requirement, no restrictions a TALL

South Dakota never did.
are the children going to school
if yes then they are open
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 02, 2021, 04:38:53 PM
In France, children have been going to school while the country was in an extensive lock down, they still have a lot of restrictions.

Going to school is not a marker for being open.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 02, 2021, 04:46:03 PM
the headline:

Biden: US will be able to vaccinate all adults by end of May

https://apnews.com/article/merck-help-make-johnson-johnson-vaccine-9ca6f1f4c502b095531926a53abe7262 (https://apnews.com/article/merck-help-make-johnson-johnson-vaccine-9ca6f1f4c502b095531926a53abe7262)

the body:

The announcement comes as the White House looks to speed the production of the single-dose J&J vaccine and accelerate the nation’s plans to reach “herd immunity” in the U.S. and begin restoring normalcy after the pandemic. Biden noted that vaccine supply was only one bottleneck toward that goal, and that the new challenge will be injecting doses into arms as swiftly as possible.

To that end, the Biden administration told governors Tuesday to prepare for their supplies of vaccine to continue to climb over the coming weeks. Additional doses are also heading toward a federally backed program to administer doses in more accessible retail pharmacies.

Officials have said J&J faced unexpected production issues with its vaccine and produced only 3.9 million doses ahead of its receiving emergency use authorization on Saturday. The company has promised to deliver 100 million doses by the end of June.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 02, 2021, 04:53:17 PM
I bet we end up with tens of millions of unused vaccines by around August.  Paid for, sitting and gradually spoiling.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 02, 2021, 04:54:15 PM
we can send them to China
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 02, 2021, 04:54:59 PM
A notable thing where I went, a hospital auditorium, was how many guides were there.  We couldn't walk 50 feet without another GROUP of people showing us which way to go, as if the myriad signs weren't enough.  They often had 4-5 people pointing the way, and then 2-3 more.

They had 50 or so total entirely devoted to pointing the way, or helping you find a chair in which to sit for 15 minutes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 02, 2021, 04:55:09 PM
and I certainly hope you are correct

that will mean that things are truly back to normal
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 02, 2021, 04:55:55 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 02, 2021, 04:54:59 PM
A notable thing where I went, a hospital auditorium, was how many guides were there.  We couldn't walk 50 feet without another GROUP of people showing us which way to go, as if the myriad signs weren't enough.  They often had 4-5 people pointing the way, and then 2-3 more.

They had 50 or so total entirely devoted to pointing the way, or helping you find a chair in which to sit for 15 minutes.
getting paid more than the minimum I hope
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 02, 2021, 04:57:40 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 02, 2021, 04:55:55 PM
getting paid more than the minimum I hope
They were all wearing scrubs.  My GUESS is they were nurses and hospital aids getting OT for this second job, from the gubbmint.

They were all very nice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 02, 2021, 05:29:49 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 02, 2021, 04:38:53 PM
In France, children have been going to school while the country was in an extensive lock down, they still have a lot of restrictions.

Going to school is not a marker for being open.
youre taking my statement out of context

you need to read Fearless and then mine to get my meaning
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 02, 2021, 05:32:14 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 02, 2021, 04:53:17 PM
I bet we end up with tens of millions of unused vaccines by around August.  Paid for, sitting and gradually spoiling.
I hope youre right

that will mean we are getting vaccinated

and we know how to make more vaccine when needed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 02, 2021, 06:17:13 PM
I hope it's not because a bunch of morons have refused to be vaccinated, though. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 02, 2021, 06:52:39 PM
always going to have a certain percentage of folks that refuse to do the right thing.  Many reasons, ignorance is maybe the biggest reason

if we could only get a clear concise consistent message from political leaders..........
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 02, 2021, 07:31:54 PM
That is my concern
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 02, 2021, 07:45:41 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 02, 2021, 04:53:17 PM
I bet we end up with tens of millions of unused vaccines by around August.  Paid for, sitting and gradually spoiling.
Hey man,I'll try anything once
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 03, 2021, 08:58:11 AM
IF the polls are nearly correct and a third of the population doesn't want the vaccine, obviously we'll end up with extra vaccine.  Herd immunity by then probably will have the rates down far and folks will believe it's over and they don't need a vaccine, so why take the risk?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 03, 2021, 10:05:17 AM
From what I've seen the poll numbers regarding the percentage that won't get a vaccine, have been dropping over the past 4-6 months.  That's to be expected, as more people see their friends and neighbors getting the vaccine, and failing to grow a 3rd arm.  In another couple of months, I think the number that "refuses" to get the vaccine will be 20% or less, which will be more than enough to get to herd immunity when combined with the people who've already had it.

That is of course, IF the vaccine is effective against all current and mutating strains of the virus.

Which it will not be.

;)


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on March 03, 2021, 10:10:21 AM
As I noted some time ago, by far the biggest side effect of getting vaccinated is bragging about getting vaccinated.

Both sets of our parents (mine and the Mrs.) either have at least 1 shot or are on the docket to get it. 

Both the Mrs. and I are so far down the list I'm looking up at the well-digger.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 03, 2021, 10:14:59 AM
I figured folks who said they would wait would diminish in numbers over time.

But they still may be a large enough body that we end up with excess vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 03, 2021, 12:00:08 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 03, 2021, 10:05:17 AM
From what I've seen the poll numbers regarding the percentage that won't get a vaccine, have been dropping over the past 4-6 months.  That's to be expected, as more people see their friends and neighbors getting the vaccine, and failing to grow a 3rd arm.  In another couple of months, I think the number that "refuses" to get the vaccine will be 20% or less, which will be more than enough to get to herd immunity when combined with the people who've already had it.

That is of course, IF the vaccine is effective against all current and mutating strains of the virus.

Which it will not be.

;)
Well aren't you just a ray of sunshine?

Regarding the "won't get the vaccine", from everything I've read there are two groups... Those who aren't ready to get the vaccine YET, and those who don't want it at all. Most of the "not YET" group will be whittled down as they see more and more people getting it and not having issues. The latter are beyond hope IMHO. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 03, 2021, 12:08:48 PM
Why is the current Administration allowing illegal aliens released into this country that are positive for covid

What possible justification could there be for this

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/after-border-patrol-release-asylum-seekers-test-positive-covid-brownsville-n1259282

https://www.foxnews.com/us/108-migrants-released-border-patrol-texas-positive-coronavirus
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 03, 2021, 12:13:56 PM
Rodney Scott is Chief of the United States Border Patrol

Is he taking direct orders from the White House on this?  Or is he able to make reasonable decisions?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 03, 2021, 12:20:46 PM
Today, everything is the president's fault, just like 6 months ago nothing was the president's fault.  And vice-versa.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 03, 2021, 12:23:21 PM
I suppose Rodney is smart enough to know there's been a shift in "thinking" and he might want to keep his job, but.................. DUDE!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 03, 2021, 01:10:29 PM
Currently there is a screening for covid procedure in place however if an illegal is positive all they get are suggestions to quarantine and seek medical help from local US doctors

There is no procedure to make sure these folks stay isolated

They are free to catch a bus and go anywhere they want

this is vastly different then the Trump administration when they would have been returned to their origin country
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 03, 2021, 01:14:02 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 03, 2021, 12:20:46 PM
Today, everything is the president's fault, just like 6 months ago nothing was the president's fault.  And vice-versa.
the current procedure instituted by the current administration is way different then the old one

look it up
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 03, 2021, 01:43:10 PM
Maybe take this one off of this thread. In other news is OK.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 03, 2021, 02:11:48 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 03, 2021, 01:43:10 PM
Maybe take this one off of this thread. In other news is OK.
this is not political it is 100% about the virus

I would have made my posts no matter who is in office

we are in danger of being infiltrated by thousands of virus carrying illegals when we should be trying to do something about it

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 03, 2021, 02:24:12 PM
When you're using the word "infiltrated," you're getting political.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 03, 2021, 02:37:12 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 03, 2021, 02:11:48 PM
we are in danger of being infiltrated by thousands of virus carrying illegals when we should be trying to do something about it
The USA has a MUCH higher cases/1M rate than Mexico. Granted, that may have a lot to do with testing, but the USA also has a higher deaths/1M rate than Mexico.

Mexicans might be safer than Texans :57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 03, 2021, 02:46:17 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 03, 2021, 02:37:12 PM
The USA has a MUCH higher cases/1M rate than Mexico. Granted, that may have a lot to do with testing, but the USA also has a higher deaths/1M rate than Mexico.

Mexicans might be safer than Texans :57:
Indeed.  Everyone should definitely move to Mexico and not Texas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 03, 2021, 02:49:03 PM
Also, I don't believe the Mexican data at all.  It's possible they're deliberately misreporting for political purposes, but beyond that, they simply don't have the nation-wide infrastructure to capture this data, compile it, and report it.

Anecdotally, my haircutter who splits time living in Texas/Mexico, has told me that pretty much everyone in her family in Mexico, has had it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 03, 2021, 02:50:54 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 03, 2021, 02:24:12 PM
When you're using the word "infiltrated," you're getting political. 
ok Mr politically correct what should I have said instead of infiltrated

invaded comes to mind
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 03, 2021, 03:01:49 PM
Whatever keeps half the country scared.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 03, 2021, 03:08:05 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 03, 2021, 03:01:49 PM
Whatever keeps half the country scared.
unless we adopt a policy of isolating positive testing illegals there will be a huge uptick in US positives

why is that so hard to understand

and why would any administration allow this to happen

currently we can put the cork back in the bottle but in three months we wont be able to
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 03, 2021, 03:14:42 PM
I should probably take this to the "other" thread, but..........

do we have a policy of isolating positive testing legals coming into the country?

besides encouraging them to stay in their hotel for 2 weeks?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 03, 2021, 03:26:17 PM
This discussion is skirting politics, but as long as folks stick to the effects of the policy, and not the intent of the policy-makers, then it should remain okay.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 03, 2021, 03:29:11 PM
We used to have a policy thread that went sideways.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 03, 2021, 03:32:44 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 03, 2021, 03:29:11 PM
We used to have a policy thread that went sideways.
Yeah I recall.


If the kids on this thread can't behave themselves, I have no problem deleting a bunch of stuff.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 03, 2021, 03:36:34 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 03, 2021, 03:32:44 PM
Yeah I recall.

If the kids on this thread can't behave themselves, I have no problem deleting a bunch of stuff.
I wrote a couple of posts that I already "Select All -> Cut" the text before hitting Post to save you the work, 94...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 03, 2021, 03:41:40 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 03, 2021, 03:36:34 PM
I wrote a couple of posts that I already "Select All -> Cut" the text before hitting Post to save you the work, 94...
Ha!

Thanks in advance. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 03, 2021, 05:02:53 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 03, 2021, 02:37:12 PM
Mexicans might be safer than Texans :57:
Perhaps hopefully they don't pick up anything on the way to SoCal
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 04, 2021, 02:00:28 PM
Wisconsin:

(https://i.imgur.com/KMJBNbw.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/DLRBH7S.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/eJrZv3e.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 04, 2021, 03:08:50 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/OTr2Zwj.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 04, 2021, 05:22:42 PM
rooting for science..............

Vaccine shows signs of protection against dozen-plus flu strains

2009 - That’s when the H1N1/09 swine flu emerged, eventually infecting upward of 1.4 billion people — nearly one of every five on the planet at the time. True to the name, swine flus jump to humans from pigs. It’s a phenomenon that has been documented more than 400 times since the mid-2000s in the United States alone.

“They’re considered the great mixing vessel,” said Weaver, associate professor of biological sciences at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln. “They’re susceptible to their own circulating influenzas, as well as many of the avian and human influenzas.

“If you put an avian, a swine and a human virus into the same cell, they can swap genome segments. When you mix those viruses in the swine, what pops out could be all swine, or a little human and swine, or a little avian and swine, or a little of all three. And you never know: You might get the perfect combination of parts that makes for a very high-fitness virus that is highly transmissible and new to humans, meaning that people don’t have immunity to it.”


https://news.unl.edu/newsrooms/today/article/vaccine-shows-signs-of-protection-against-dozen-plus-flu-strains/ (https://news.unl.edu/newsrooms/today/article/vaccine-shows-signs-of-protection-against-dozen-plus-flu-strains/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 05, 2021, 07:39:48 AM
Study finds link between coronavirus mortality risk and obesity | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/health/study-links-coronavirus-mortality-risk-to-obesity)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 05, 2021, 08:24:32 AM
Wisconsin nursing homes see 97% drop in COVID-19 cases since vaccine (jsonline.com) (https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/local/wisconsin/2021/03/04/wisconsin-nursing-homes-see-97-drop-covid-19-cases-since-vaccine/4577793001/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on March 05, 2021, 12:20:45 PM
It's hard to believe that next Thursday will mark one full year since COVID got real in the U.S.

https://www.minnpost.com/health/2021/03/the-scope-and-scale-of-this-is-stunning-one-year-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-minnesota/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 05, 2021, 01:07:12 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on March 05, 2021, 12:20:45 PM
It's hard to believe that next Thursday will mark one full year since COVID got real in the U.S.

https://www.minnpost.com/health/2021/03/the-scope-and-scale-of-this-is-stunning-one-year-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-minnesota/
Well over a year now

https://www.westernjournal.com/trump-bans-travel-china-orders-1st-quarantine-50-years/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 05, 2021, 01:14:59 PM
depends on your definition of real

I wasn't wearing a mask on March 5th, 2020
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 05, 2021, 01:27:03 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 05, 2021, 01:14:59 PM
depends on your definition of real

I wasn't wearing a mask on March 5th, 2020
None of us were. We were told not to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 05, 2021, 01:28:18 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 05, 2021, 01:14:59 PM
depends on your definition of real

I wasn't wearing a mask on March 5th, 2020
We don't count you revolutionaries
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 05, 2021, 01:34:01 PM
we are now vaccinating at a 2,000,000 per day rate

it wont be long before we start seeing the results of this in the stats
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 05, 2021, 01:40:48 PM
I saw just today three new projects proposed to starting site clearance near me.  There had been an abeyance to new starts, I take this as evidence in confidence in the recovery going forward.

Middle Street Partners Plans 470-Units, Dual Skyscrapers At Site Of Joe's On Juniper, Einstein's | What Now Atlanta (https://whatnowatlanta.com/middle-street-partners-plans-470-units-dual-skyscrapers-at-site-of-joes-on-juniper-einsteins/)

This one is two blocks up the street from us.  Joe's on Juniper is a well known gay establishment that was sold apparently and now is going to get demolished.

(https://i.imgur.com/FxhomVy.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 05, 2021, 01:46:34 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 05, 2021, 01:34:01 PM
we are now vaccinating at a 2,000,000 per day rate

it wont be long before we start seeing the results of this in the stats
hopefully, before we see results of Iowa and Texas lifting all restrictions
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 05, 2021, 01:52:46 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 05, 2021, 01:46:34 PM
hopefully, before we see results of Iowa and Texas lifting all restrictions
Like I said earlier, not much has changed in Texas.

No longer required to wear masks at bars and restaurants?  Nobody was anyway, except for the 20 foot walk from the front door to the table.

No longer required to wear masks at grocery stores?  I'm not sure this was ever going to be a significant threat vector.  THE SCIENCE indicates that it spreads when you spend 15 or more minutes in close proximity with an infected person.  That doesn't happen in grocery stores very much. 

And that's assuming 100% maskless activity, but I'll still be wearing a mask in those situations along with millions of others.

Much ado about nothing, really.

Now-- Spring Break and Easter, on the other hand, are definitely potential drivers of spread.  But, they would have been anwyay.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 05, 2021, 02:14:34 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 05, 2021, 01:52:46 PM
Now-- Spring Break and Easter, on the other hand, are definitely potential drivers of spread.  But, they would have been anwyay.
I hope this kid doesn't come to Florida again.


(https://i.imgur.com/JKOFESe.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 05, 2021, 02:21:00 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/NNqJIYC.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 05, 2021, 02:23:18 PM
I'm guessin' that's a stout
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 05, 2021, 02:35:04 PM
looks like cheerleader beer to me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 05, 2021, 02:36:12 PM
But out
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 05, 2021, 02:42:07 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 05, 2021, 02:36:12 PM
But out
icwydt
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 05, 2021, 02:43:33 PM
poor spelling by the Buckeye
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 05, 2021, 02:47:50 PM
Glad someone else spelled it out for you.FOUR!!! ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 05, 2021, 03:05:27 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 05, 2021, 02:21:00 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/NNqJIYC.png)
Ok, those girls can come. Not the ass clown though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 05, 2021, 03:17:03 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 05, 2021, 03:05:27 PM
Ok, those girls can come. Not the ass clown though.
First time I've ever heard of someone described as an ass clown... And can take it literally.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 05, 2021, 05:28:10 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 05, 2021, 03:17:03 PM
First time I've ever heard of someone described as an ass clown... And can take it literally.
Bwarb - why don't you change your handle to your old blog name of Unrepentant Prick or what ever it was.That new user name hurts looking at it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 05, 2021, 06:44:07 PM
18 has got to be the limit on number of digits
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 05, 2021, 08:23:35 PM
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/p526x296/157177265_5880141842003458_4150049352456824471_n.jpg?_nc_cat=1&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=sAC2QmKt1h8AX9b3qDu&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&tp=6&oh=09ffe55f2fbac1ad282c0934967e1963&oe=6067B1E5)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 07, 2021, 06:24:00 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/2J6qd31.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 07, 2021, 06:27:38 AM
Georgia is almost back to the mid-October lows in new cases reported.  Positivity rate was 5% yesterday.

Vaccines are becoming more readily available, which I surmise reflects the national trends.  First doses 1.4 million, second over .9 million.  Population 10.6 million.

I'd guess we have 4 million or so with some level of resistance.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 07, 2021, 08:06:14 AM
Who would actually take the time to prove/disprove parallels?Of course when I was wagering I use to come across some very unusual conclusions from prognosticators
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 07, 2021, 10:46:42 AM
Fossil CO 2 emissions in the post-COVID-19 era | Nature Climate Change (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01001-0)

Five years after the adoption of the Paris Climate Agreement, growth in global CO2 emissions has begun to falter. The pervasive disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic have radically altered the trajectory of global CO2 emissions. Contradictory effects of the post-COVID-19 investments in fossil fuel-based infrastructure and the recent strengthening of climate targets must be addressed with new policy choices to sustain a decline in global emissions in the post-COVID-19 era.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 07, 2021, 10:49:41 AM
Global fossil CO2 emissions have decreased by around 2.6 GtCO2 in 2020 to 34 GtCO2 (Fig. 1 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01001-0#Fig1)). This projected decrease, caused largely by the measures implemented to slow the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, is about 7% below 2019 levels, according to the analysis of the Global Carbon Project1 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01001-0#ref-CR1) on the basis of multiple studies2 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01001-0#ref-CR2),3 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01001-0#ref-CR3),4 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01001-0#ref-CR4) and recent monthly energy data. A 2.6 GtCO2 decrease in global annual emissions has never been observed before. Yet cuts of 1–2 GtCO2 per year are needed throughout the 2020s and beyond to avoid exceeding warming levels in the range 1.5 °C to well below 2 °C, the ambition of the Paris Agreement5 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01001-0#ref-CR5). The drop in CO2 emissions from responses to COVID-19 highlights the scale of actions and international adherence needed to tackle climate change.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on March 07, 2021, 11:34:22 AM
Daily Deaths down across the world with few expectations, of which Brazil is the first nation to come close to beating the U.S. in a single daily death toll in many months:

(https://i.imgur.com/WI9b4Q9.png)

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1366862152657743873

In the U.S. daily death counts down across all states with Virginia being the weird exception:

(https://i.imgur.com/3XdqLEP.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 07, 2021, 11:52:19 AM
New Deaths in US 7 day moving avg:

(https://i.imgur.com/nzF4zAW.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 07, 2021, 11:55:04 AM
https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-pill-shows-promise-in-preliminary-testing-11615006861

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/MERCK-CO-INC-13611/news/Merck-nbsp-Covid-19-Pill-Shows-Promise-in-Preliminary-Testing-32619218/


this might be good news
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 07, 2021, 12:03:49 PM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on March 07, 2021, 11:34:22 AM
Daily Deaths down across the world with few expectations, of which Brazil is the first nation to come close to beating the U.S. in a single daily death toll in many months:
I gotta believe China,India have a higher death rates.The US count also includes many other deaths in hospitals to cover the revenue lost for non essential procedures/surgeries which are starting to pick up
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 07, 2021, 01:34:10 PM
I don't think the US count of deaths is inflated much at all, it corresponds closely with excess deaths due to all causes since last March.

The US had fewer than 2.9  million deaths in 2019, it's going to be 3.2 million for 2020, a very striking an unusual increase.  For March to March is will be 3.3 million plus, probably 3.4.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 07, 2021, 03:58:58 PM
But there were still many bagged and tagged that could easily have been appropriated differently.For instance the 78 yr old woman with diabetes and stage 4 cancer in the final throes but the China Viras gets credit.And I'm hard pressed to believe India and China are lagging our numbers
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 08, 2021, 10:52:04 AM
China's just lying outright.  We know it.  So are Iran and Russia.  Japan was early-on, desperately trying to keep the Olympics.  Maybe they've trued up by now, maybe not.

And then there are vast sections of India, and the entire African continent, that simply lack the infrastructure to record and report it.  Plus they're busy with other diseases that in general are far more deadly than C19.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 08, 2021, 11:06:08 AM
the Olympics hasn't been cancelled yet
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 08, 2021, 11:08:17 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 08, 2021, 11:06:08 AM
the Olympics hasn't been cancelled yet
This was last year in April/May.  Japan was very... creative... in its reporting.

Now, who knows?  COVID's not really a thing anymore anyway, is it??? :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 08, 2021, 11:23:29 AM
not in Iowa and Texas
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 08, 2021, 11:23:48 AM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released new guidance Monday for people who’ve been fully vaccinated against Covid-19, a highly anticipated step as the nation tries to ease back into normality following almost a year of restrictions due to the pandemic.

“There are some activities that fully vaccinated people can begin to resume now in the privacy of their own homes. Everyone – even those who are vaccinated – should continue with all mitigation strategies when in public settings,” CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said in a statement.

According to the guidance, fully vaccinated people can safely visit with other fully vaccinated people and some unvaccinated people inside without wearing masks or social distancing, according to the guidance. Someone is considered fully vaccinated two weeks following either a single shot of Johnson & Johnson’s newly authorized vaccine or two weeks after their second shot of Moderna’s or Pfizer’s two-dose regimens.

Roughly 58.9 million people in the U.S. have received at least one shot with 30.7 million of those people receiving two doses, just over 9% of the nation’s population, according to the CDC, which doesn’t break down which vaccine people received.

People who are fully inoculated can also visit with unvaccinated people from a single household without wearing masks or social distancing as long as they’re at low risk for severe disease, the CDC says.

“For example, fully vaccinated grandparents can visit indoors with their unvaccinated healthy daughter and her healthy children without wearing masks or physical distancing, provided none of the unvaccinated family members are at risk of severe COVID-19,” according to the CDC guidance.

Fully vaccinated people don’t have to quarantine or get tested for Covid-19 if exposed to someone with the virus as long as they’re not showing symptoms, the agency advises. However, if a vaccinated person begins to display symptoms, they should isolate themselves and get tested for Covid-19.

There are still some activities fully vaccinated people can’t do just yet, the CDC warns. Vaccinated Americans should still avoid medium- and large-sized in-person gatherings, and they should also continue wearing face masks and social distancing when in public.

If a vaccinated person is visiting someone who is at risk for severe disease and is unvaccinated, they should still wear a mask, keep a 6-foot distance and try to visit outside when possible, the agency says.

While a growing body of evidence suggests that people who are inoculated against Covid-19 are less likely to transmit the disease to others, it’s still not known how long someone’s protection might last or the effectiveness of the shots against emerging Covid-19 variants, the CDC said in a statement.

“While the new guidance is a positive step, many more people need to be fully vaccinated before everyone can stop taking most COVID-19 precautions,” the CDC said. “It is important that, until then, everyone continues to adhere to important mitigation measures to protect the large number of people who remain unvaccinated.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 08, 2021, 01:04:32 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/B40DuPu.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 08, 2021, 01:42:12 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/X8KKRMI.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 10, 2021, 09:31:15 AM
California vs. Florida: Who handled COVID better? (https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-03-09/florida-vs-california-who-had-better-covid-response)

It's a little murkier of a picture than perhaps Badge suggests... 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 10, 2021, 10:01:04 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 10, 2021, 09:31:15 AM
California vs. Florida: Who handled COVID better? (https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-03-09/florida-vs-california-who-had-better-covid-response)

It's a little murkier of a picture than perhaps Badge suggests...


It's certainly a murky picture, but since the article is focusing on deaths/millions population, and COVID19 is known to be especially lethal to the population of 65+ in age, it seems odd that the author wouldn't mention the comparison of % of population over 65 in each state...


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 10, 2021, 10:04:11 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 10, 2021, 09:31:15 AM
California vs. Florida: Who handled COVID better? (https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-03-09/florida-vs-california-who-had-better-covid-response)

It's a little murkier of a picture than perhaps Badge suggests...


so what do you base it on

for me I base it on more then virus stats

I would compare the number of small businesses wiped out 

I would look at the schools
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 10, 2021, 10:13:30 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 10, 2021, 10:04:11 AM
so what do you base it on

for me I base it on more then virus stats

I would compare the number of small businesses wiped out

I would look at the schools
The author did go into the economy a little bit.  It was pretty cursory.

I don't think the author addressed schools at all, which is another good point.  Schools being mostly open is better than being mostly closed, I don't think anyone can dispute that.  The degree can certainly be debated, but I think Florida definitely gets the nod on this one.

Edit-- It did mention schools, but didn't really categorize it as a major "win" for Florida's treatment of the issue-- which I believe it is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 10, 2021, 10:17:47 AM
another covid treatment development

https://www.foxnews.com/health/eli-lilly-covid-19-drug-combo-cuts-risk-of-hospitalizations-deaths-by-87-study
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 10, 2021, 10:37:52 AM
another one

The race to find vaccines for COVID-19 has dominated the headlines, but there's been less news about how to keep people with COVID out of the hospital. Tonight, we're going to tell you a story about one possible treatment. It's called fluvoxamine. The generic drug was developed 40 years ago as an antidepressant and has been primarily used to treat obsessive-compulsive disorder. Now, a small but ingenious clinical trial and a series of coincidences have led scientists to look closely at fluvoxamine as a possible tool to keep newly diagnosed COVID-19 patients from becoming severely ill. So how did a pill that costs 60 cents become a dark horse to treat COVID? We went to a place that knows all about long shots to find out.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fluvoxamine-antidepressant-drug-covid-treatment-60-minutes-2021-03-07/ (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fluvoxamine-antidepressant-drug-covid-treatment-60-minutes-2021-03-07/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 10, 2021, 10:45:12 AM
I should be clear. That link wasn't about trying to say California should be doing victory laps over anyone re: COVID response. 

Just that when you look at everything, it's certainly not like Florida should be doing victory laps either. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2021, 11:03:18 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 10, 2021, 10:45:12 AM
I should be clear. That link wasn't about trying to say California should be doing victory laps over anyone re: COVID response.

Just that when you look at everything, it's certainly not like Florida should be doing victory laps either.
Which state is begging for a Federal bailout?

Hint: Not mine. Money will be coming out of MY pocket to help lockdown states.

Florida median age: 42.2
California: 36.8

Florida deaths/million: 1,486
California: 1,382

All Florida public schools are open. Companies are being formed left and right. Business is booming. Housing construction is off the charts. 1200 productive people per day are moving in.

Florida: A+
California: Epic Fail
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2021, 11:14:53 AM
From the LA Times article:

If L.A. County’s deaths are subtracted out of California’s total, Florida’s death rate would measure 39% higher than the state’s. It is L.A.’s vulnerabilities that drove California’s surges and pushed its total death rates so close to Florida’s.


So, if you took out Dade County from Florida's total, Florida's death rate would measure 11.5% LESS than California's. 

Ifs and buts, candy and nuts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on March 10, 2021, 11:19:35 AM
Getting pShot #1 tonight
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 10, 2021, 11:20:29 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2021, 11:14:53 AM
From the LA Times article:

If L.A. County’s deaths are subtracted out of California’s total, Florida’s death rate would measure 39% higher than the state’s. It is L.A.’s vulnerabilities that drove California’s surges and pushed its total death rates so close to Florida’s.


So, if you took out Dade County from Florida's total, Florida's death rate would measure 11.5% LESS than California's.

Ifs and buts, candy and nuts.
better still just nuke LA and problem solved
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 10, 2021, 11:21:01 AM
Quote from: ELA on March 10, 2021, 11:19:35 AM
Getting pShot #1 tonight
thats great

we want a report
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2021, 11:31:16 AM
Quote from: ELA on March 10, 2021, 11:19:35 AM
Getting pShot #1 tonight
Pfizer?  How did you manage to get an appointment at your age?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 10, 2021, 12:19:32 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2021, 11:03:18 AM
Which state is begging for a Federal bailout?

Hint: Not mine. Money will be coming out of MY pocket to help lockdown states.

Florida median age: 42.2
California: 36.8

Florida deaths/million: 1,486
California: 1,382

All Florida public schools are open. Companies are being formed left and right. Business is booming. Housing construction is off the charts. 1200 productive people per day are moving in.

Florida: A+
California: Epic Fail
You know what most of those old folks in Florida don't do? Live in multigenerational households with their grandkids.

California is ranked #2 in multigenerational households and #3 in households where grandparents live with grandkids.

Florida is #12 in multigenerational households and #22 in households where grandparents live with grandkids.

If you can't imagine how that would affect the risk profile for the older folks most at risk of COVID, I don't know what to say.

Florida gets an A+ for being only slightly more sh!tty than California? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 10, 2021, 12:28:30 PM
Long Term Care Facilities in each state?

any stats?  Should be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 10, 2021, 01:06:10 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 10, 2021, 12:28:30 PM
Long Term Care Facilities in each state?

any stats?  Should be.
Not sure. I don't know how big of a difference that will be, because nobody outside of NY/NJ f#^@$d up their long term care handling all that badly as far as I can tell. 

I can say from personal experience talking to people living in retirement communities (my parents in CO and my wife's dad/stepmom in SoCal), rather than "nursing homes", I've been seeing very strong protocols for social distancing, masks, etc. 

I think retirees in communities, who don't have to go to work and don't live in a home with their working children or grandchildren, are in a much safer situation re: exposure than folks in multigenerational households, despite being at high risk to complications from the virus if they contract it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 10, 2021, 01:30:48 PM
It strikes me as difficult to compare states without looking at a LOT of specific differences.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 10, 2021, 01:35:27 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 10, 2021, 01:06:10 PM
Not sure. I don't know how big of a difference that will be, because nobody outside of NY/NJ f#^@$d up their long term care handling all that badly as far as I can tell.

As I recall, Seattle had some major problems with it early on.  Nothing like NY/NJ obviously.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 10, 2021, 01:37:14 PM
not sure how Iowa determines "long term care"   - nursing homes and assisted living facilities, but........

long term care residents have accounted for 2207 of the 5575 deaths in the state

not living at home with or without kids and grandkids
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 10, 2021, 01:46:39 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 10, 2021, 01:30:48 PM
It strikes me as difficult to compare states without looking at a LOT of specific differences.
That was my point. 

But some folks want to do victory laps over other states to prove their political point. 

At least the demographics of Florida vs California are more similar than trying to compare Illinois to Wisconsin and Iowa, which are LIGHT YEARS apart. So although I can point to demographic differences (such as multigenerational households due to the high cost of living here) between FL and CA, there is at least some commonality. For Illinois compared to Wisconsin and Iowa, there is NO commonality because of the dominance of Chicago on Illinois' demographics. Illinois would be better compared with FL, NY, GA or CA, other states with megalopolises. 

It's also not particularly fair to compare "everything is open" Florida to "locked down gulag" California... Orange County CA is open and has been for months. Our county leaders basically announced that they weren't going to enforce any of the lockdown orders. Restaurants, barbers / hair salons, nail salons, etc have remained open. Kids have been in school since the fall. One of my local breweries forces you to buy a bag of chips to be considered a "restaurant" rather than a bar, but they're open. Now, that's not all of California, of course, but it's 3.1M people. 

So yeah, sure, Florida can pat themselves on the back for being 25th in the nation in Deaths/1M people... Great. There's 50 states, so that's a 50% grade. Giving them an A+ for their handling is grading on one HELL of curve. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 10, 2021, 01:46:55 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2021, 11:31:16 AM
Pfizer?  How did you manage to get an appointment at your age?
He was going to sue their ass for age discrimination
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 10, 2021, 01:56:32 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 10, 2021, 01:46:39 PM
That was my point.

But some folks want to do victory laps over other states to prove their political point.


Like... for example... the author of the article you posted...? :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2021, 02:10:02 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 10, 2021, 01:56:32 PM
Like... for example... the author of the article you posted...? :)

I'm also talking about much more than the China Virus here. I'm talking about social, mental, economic and all the other impacts that this virus has affected. Drug addiction is up. Suicides are up. Murders are up. Kids are being left behind. All of this for lockdowns that don't work. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 10, 2021, 02:15:33 PM
Georgia has been partly open since April 23 last year and is in the middle by most metrics.  Rates are WAY down and continuing to drop now.  I THINK most of us "know the drill", wear a mask at Kroger, fine.

The state, like others, arguably is nearing herd immunity to the extent that the virus is not spreading nearly as fast.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2021, 02:28:29 PM
I've been in Illinois since Saturday. It is very sad to see how many of my favorite places have shuttered.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 10, 2021, 02:36:30 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 10, 2021, 01:56:32 PM
Like... for example... the author of the article you posted...? :)

I don't know... If you read that article it seemed to state that some areas were better for certain states while some were worse.

And it tried to dig into some of the reasons why this isn't a simple comparison where one state can claim "victory".

Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2021, 02:10:02 PM
I'm also talking about much more than the China Virus here. I'm talking about social, mental, economic and all the other impacts that this virus has affected. Drug addiction is up. Suicides are up. Murders are up. Kids are being left behind. All of this for lockdowns that don't work.
And you have evidence that all of these social, mental, economic effects have been more severe in California than Florida?

Some potentially have. Other potentially have not. Undoubtedly unemployment is worse here in California than Florida, but both were pretty severely negatively impacted.

Drug addiction is probably hard to track (because it often goes unreported), and the impact on kids due to school is also hard to track--although I do highlight that some areas of California have been conducting in-person schooling since very shortly after the start of the school year.

Have suicide/murder relative to the pre-COVID baselines increased more in California than Florida?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on March 10, 2021, 02:42:29 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2021, 11:31:16 AM
Pfizer?  How did you manage to get an appointment at your age?
I’m getting my second Moderna shot Friday.  My wife runs a clinic here and I figure most people assume she just pushed me through during one of their big vaccine events, but that isn’t what happened.  At least not exactly. The state had a database of patients and they were texting them and then following up with a recorded message with their appointment time.

My wife was on a conference call and was leery about how it might work and entered my name and number in the database to use as a guinea pig.  They contacted me (it actually was confusing and clunky) early on to schedule an appointment time but I never contacted them back.  This was very early in the process when just the most elderly and fragile patients were getting the shots.  I told her my experience using the system and never thought anything else about it.

Then, four weeks ago I was hanging out at home one evening and our local Walgreen’ s called me and asked if I wanted my Covid vaccine.  They were just going through the database contacting people who hadn’t received their shot yet.  I told them sure and went the next day to get my shot.

My buddy got his first shot last week because there was a big vaccine clinic and they had a bunch of cancellations and no shows. They started randomly calling people they knew to get them in arms or they would lose them.

Anyway, I’m dreading the second shot.  I know a lot of people who said the second one kicked their butt pretty good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 10, 2021, 02:55:03 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on March 10, 2021, 02:42:29 PM


Anyway, I’m dreading the second shot.  I know a lot of people who said the second one kicked their butt pretty good.
please let us know how that 2nd shot goes
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2021, 02:57:21 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 10, 2021, 02:36:30 PM
I don't know... If you read that article it seemed to state that some areas were better for certain states while some were worse.

And it tried to dig into some of the reasons why this isn't a simple comparison where one state can claim "victory".
And you have evidence that all of these social, mental, economic effects have been more severe in California than Florida?

Some potentially have. Other potentially have not. Undoubtedly unemployment is worse here in California than Florida, but both were pretty severely negatively impacted.

Drug addiction is probably hard to track (because it often goes unreported), and the impact on kids due to school is also hard to track--although I do highlight that some areas of California have been conducting in-person schooling since very shortly after the start of the school year.

Have suicide/murder relative to the pre-COVID baselines increased more in California than Florida?
I have no direct evidence because the numbers are not out there yet, but it's hard to argue anything different.

Mental Health and Coping During COVID-19 | CDC

 (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/managing-stress-anxiety.html)COVID: Mental Health 'Epidemic' in Communities of Color (webmd.com)

 (https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210226/covid-mental-health-epidemic-in-communities-of-color#1)COVID-19 and your mental health - Mayo Clinic

 (https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/mental-health-covid-19/art-20482731)Teen Mental Health Has Suffered During the COVID-19 Pandemic | Time

 (https://time.com/5943896/covid-19-teen-mental-health/)CDC study sheds new light on 'mental health crisis' linked to coronavirus pandemic - CNN


 (https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/13/health/mental-health-coronavirus-pandemic-cdc-study-wellness/index.html)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 10, 2021, 03:49:28 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2021, 02:57:21 PM
I have no direct evidence because the numbers are not out there yet, but it's hard to argue anything different.

Mental Health and Coping During COVID-19 | CDC

 (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/managing-stress-anxiety.html)COVID: Mental Health 'Epidemic' in Communities of Color (webmd.com)

 (https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210226/covid-mental-health-epidemic-in-communities-of-color#1)COVID-19 and your mental health - Mayo Clinic

 (https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/mental-health-covid-19/art-20482731)Teen Mental Health Has Suffered During the COVID-19 Pandemic | Time

 (https://time.com/5943896/covid-19-teen-mental-health/)CDC study sheds new light on 'mental health crisis' linked to coronavirus pandemic - CNN

 (https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/13/health/mental-health-coronavirus-pandemic-cdc-study-wellness/index.html)
Oh, I don't doubt that the pandemic has caused a lot of mental health problems. As has the racial tension over the past year, a more contentious than usual election, and the post-election craziness. 

What I don't really know is whether there is a correlation of higher mental health issues in the "lockdown" states compared to "open" states. Maybe there is. 

For example, I just looked at the first three google results on "suicide rates after covid by state":

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(20)30435-1/fulltext

Study was Queensland, AUS. Monthly suicide rate for the 5 years prior was 14.85/100K. Monthly suicide rate from Feb 1 [the day Queensland declared emergency] until Aug 31 was 14.07, so no change was seen. This study obviously doesn't really dig into lockdown.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(20)30435-1/fulltext

Study was in Japan. Suicides in the first five months of their pandemic (Feb->June) were down 14% from previous years. However, suicides in the 5 months following (July->Oct) increased 16%. This study also doesn't really dig into the lockdown angle.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2775359

This was in Massachussetts, and purported to only study during the stay-at-home advisory (March->May 2020). They found the previous rate was 0.8/100K "person-months", whereas the rate during this period was 0.67%/100K "person-months", so it decreased. Obviously this could be consistent with both the Queensland and Japanese studies, but as the Japanese study showed a decline followed by an increase, it's entirely possible that longer-term stay-at-home advisory could cause larger spikes as quarantine fatigue set in...

--------------

I think it's important that sometimes we *think* an outcome that we expect to happen is simply the logical result, but the numbers don't always bear that out. 

Imagine a logical thought--the pandemic is scary for everyone. It's a new environment, and many people are scared to socially interact because they feel like they're trying to being safe. Others are unconcerned about the pandemic because they feel like they're in low-risk groups, and feel like they should be allowed to do what they want.


The bad result for those who are fearful without a lockdown is additional loneliness or anxiety, whereas with a lockdown they feel validation and lack of social pressure to defect. Whereas those who are not fearful without a lockdown is status quo, and with a lockdown feel anger and potentially defiant, where are much more empowering emotions. 

Now, it may be true that I'm oversimplifying a bunch of really complex emotions; I am. It might not be accurate. But hopefully it shows how certain responses that you might expect could be counterintuitive from someone else, compared to what you carry into this with your own emotional perspective.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 10, 2021, 04:27:36 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/ao1KSZY.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on March 10, 2021, 04:30:51 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2021, 11:31:16 AM
Pfizer?  How did you manage to get an appointment at your age?
I qualified based on weight.  I didn't even think to check, and then my neighbor, who is in better shape than me, said he did it on a whim, and was accepted.  I've never been happier for these few extra pounds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 10, 2021, 04:36:14 PM
Quote from: ELA on March 10, 2021, 04:30:51 PM
I qualified based on weight.  I didn't even think to check, and then my neighbor, who is in better shape than me, said he did it on a whim, and was accepted.  I've never been happier for these few extra pounds.
In California I thought I'd be in good shape re: priority due to my obesity--I'm just over the 30 BMI mark. Apparently they're only prioritizing severe obesity, a BMI over 40. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 10, 2021, 04:37:17 PM
yup, lady in my office that is a couple decades younger than me is getting a shot

she's not skinny, but I certainly don't think of her as obese 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 10, 2021, 05:28:25 PM
No state wins any award. Nobody will celebrate a single death.  Many can criticize but it really is not fair to tie the death rate to a governor. ( maybe a few exceptions but let’s just ignore that for this conversation)

But we can give plenty of our own thoughts and opinions.  These are mine- and whether you believe this or not- they are not political at least an intention.

What is the right answer when you’re trying to balance “flattening the curve”, protecting those who are vulnerable, The general health of the public, the economic viability of those people who live in your state- especially small business owners whose ability to feed their families and pay their bills is solely tied to the small business that they run, having kids in school which we all acknowledge is optimum but not putting teachers and administrators at risk, and the list goes on.  I am not sure there is a “right“ answer.

I am glad I was in Florida when this thing hit because I am very very pleased with the way Florida handled this. I feel like the balance between individual protections, the greater good including economic, we’re about as well served as they could be. I also think the fact that so many people are moving here now supports that at least to some degree.

The fact that this was so politicized is my greatest disappointment and nobody gets off the hook here. “Science” was tossed around like a security blanket but completely misused.  You simply cannot say with a straight face that people who want to gather in a church, distancing, while wearing masks, is not following science yet having liquor stores, marijuana dispensaries, and other things open, is.  It clearly is individual opinions and decisions.

The world was not prepared for this and it seems like we are finally starting to learn more and I just hope if and when the next one comes the world will be much more prepared for this and in the United States it won’t become a political hot potato.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 10, 2021, 05:31:20 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on March 10, 2021, 02:42:29 PM


Anyway, I’m dreading the second shot.  I know a lot of people who said the second one kicked their butt pretty good.
I didn't have any issues with the 2nd shot.  I had the pfizer one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 10, 2021, 05:32:23 PM
My i s c & a aggie wife had no issues with the first or second.  She had Moderna.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on March 10, 2021, 05:46:03 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 10, 2021, 05:31:20 PM
I didn't have any issues with the 2nd shot.  I had the pfizer one.
I think almost everyone I know has had the Moderna one.  Almost everyone I’ve talked to felt pretty bad for 12-24 hours.  My wife got it at work that day.  That evening she started feeling sick to her stomach and vomited a couple of times.  Afterwards, she felt a little run down but by the next morning she felt good enough to go to work.  My boss told me after his wife’s second shot that it was the sickest he’s ever seen her and she didn’t feel good for about 3 days.  That’s the most extreme example I’ve heard.  What’s funny is it seems like the elderly do really well with the second shot.  I had a doctor  tell me the worst reactions are people in their 30’s and 40’s.  My 87 yo aunt did fine with the second shot, but she’s a cyborg. I’m convinced she’s going to bury all of us.

The only young person I know who felt fine afterwards was the COO at my wife’s clinic.  No reaction whatsoever.  We’ll see I guess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 10, 2021, 06:12:27 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on March 10, 2021, 05:28:25 PM
No state wins any award. Nobody will celebrate a single death.  Many can criticize but it really is not fair to tie the death rate to a governor. ( maybe a few exceptions but let’s just ignore that for this conversation)

But we can give plenty of our own thoughts and opinions.  These are mine- and whether you believe this or not- they are not political at least an intention.

What is the right answer when you’re trying to balance “flattening the curve”, protecting those who are vulnerable, The general health of the public, the economic viability of those people who live in your state- especially small business owners whose ability to feed their families and pay their bills is solely tied to the small business that they run, having kids in school which we all acknowledge is optimum but not putting teachers and administrators at risk, and the list goes on.  I am not sure there is a “right“ answer.

I am glad I was in Florida when this thing hit because I am very very pleased with the way Florida handled this. I feel like the balance between individual protections, the greater good including economic, we’re about as well served as they could be. I also think the fact that so many people are moving here now supports that at least to some degree.

The fact that this was so politicized is my greatest disappointment and nobody gets off the hook here. “Science” was tossed around like a security blanket but completely misused.  You simply cannot say with a straight face that people who want to gather in a church, distancing, while wearing masks, is not following science yet having liquor stores, marijuana dispensaries, and other things open, is.  It clearly is individual opinions and decisions.

The world was not prepared for this and it seems like we are finally starting to learn more and I just hope if and when the next one comes the world will be much more prepared for this and in the United States it won’t become a political hot potato.
Well said, HB. And I don't consider your response political. 

I agree regarding "science". It seemed that was the response at each time that someone wanted to keep everything closed--"I believe in Science!"

But... It didn't compute. The science doesn't support keeping kids out of schools. The science doesn't support closing things like haircuts and nail salons, as long as everyone is masked. 

The science DOES say not to get together for Thanksgiving, without a mask, with 23 of your "closest" relatives comprising 7 different households in an enclosed house. But nobody, on either "side" wanted to listen to that. Which is still IMHO one of the reasons we had so much trouble during the winter--but I could be wrong.

For Florida's sake, I'm really glad that it worked out. I agree with you that there has to be a balance, and I don't think California struck the balance properly nor had consistent messaging. 

I'm just saying I don't think Florida was an A+, nor do I think California was an F. I think it's a lot more nuanced than that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on March 10, 2021, 06:17:16 PM
I'm signed up tomorrow - not sure which one. Hopefully one of the three
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 10, 2021, 08:01:19 PM
You're just letting them inject whatever they want in your arm, aren't you?!?  lol
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 11, 2021, 08:56:29 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 10, 2021, 06:12:27 PM


I'm just saying I don't think Florida was an A+, nor do I think California was an F. I think it's a lot more nuanced than that.

Agree with you there, and I'm sure you know I was just pulling your leg.

badger, on the other hand... :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 11, 2021, 09:09:32 AM
Grade on a curve. Assume there must be A, B, C, D and F grades. 

Economic, education and social factors must be included.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 11, 2021, 09:10:03 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/nVTnOkV.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 11, 2021, 09:25:49 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 11, 2021, 09:09:32 AM
Grade on a curve. Assume there must be A, B, C, D and F grades.

Economic, education and social factors must be included.
Oh I know where you're coming from.

I think the real sticking point, has been watching a guy like Cuomo being lauded on the grand public stage, being given book deals and Emmy awards and such, while at the same time watching all of the MSM take pot shots at Florida, as if they're somehow handling it worse than Cuomo and NY did-- which is absurd.

And then when some of the positive attention does turn to Florida, a person like the LA Times writer feels the need to insert further commentary into the discussion.

It'll be several more years before we have most of the data we need, to compute the overall effects of this pandemic, by region.  And really, it's going to be probably decades before we comprehend the entire fallout of some students missing more than a year of in-person school.  But when we finally have the data, I genuinely hope that we'll take the time to sift it, analyze it, and come up with some meaningful conclusions to use as the basis for our strategy for the NEXT time this happens.

Because it most assuredly will happen again.  And potentially with a more lethal virus, which is a sobering thought.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 11, 2021, 10:19:52 AM
The next time is hopefully 100 years away.

Early on in this thing, "we" didn't know much about anything. People were dying at a high rate. A very high rate. Now we as a country are down to an overall rate, from the start, of 1.8%. It's probably closer to 0.5% now. Maybe even less, and that doesn't count the many millions of people who had it and didn't know it.

And the country was crippled - and parts of it still are. I 100% agree with the early shutdown of most states. That should have ended by May or June.

There was no reason to cripple the country. "We" should have protected the very vulnerable and let those not very vulnerable go about their business.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 11, 2021, 10:21:09 AM
I don't see California or Florida in the list above......

that's good
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 11, 2021, 10:30:23 AM
Quote from: utee94 on March 11, 2021, 09:25:49 AM
Oh I know where you're coming from.

I think the real sticking point, has been watching a guy like Cuomo being lauded on the grand public stage, being given book deals and Emmy awards and such, while at the same time watching all of the MSM take pot shots at Florida, as if they're somehow handling it worse than Cuomo and NY did-- which is absurd.

And then when some of the positive attention does turn to Florida, a person like the LA Times writer feels the need to insert further commentary into the discussion.

It'll be several more years before we have most of the data we need, to compute the overall effects of this pandemic, by region.  And really, it's going to be probably decades before we comprehend the entire fallout of some students missing more than a year of in-person school.  But when we finally have the data, I genuinely hope that we'll take the time to sift it, analyze it, and come up with some meaningful conclusions to use as the basis for our strategy for the NEXT time this happens.

Because it most assuredly will happen again.  And potentially with a more lethal virus, which is a sobering thought.


This
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 11, 2021, 10:40:41 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 11, 2021, 10:19:52 AM
The next time is hopefully 100 years away.

Early on in this thing, "we" didn't know much about anything. People were dying at a high rate. A very high rate. Now we as a country are down to an overall rate, from the start, of 1.8%. It's probably closer to 0.5% now. Maybe even less, and that doesn't count the many millions of people who had it and didn't know it.

And the country was crippled - and parts of it still are. I 100% agree with the early shutdown of most states. That should have ended by May or June.

There was no reason to cripple the country. "We" should have protected the very vulnerable and let those not very vulnerable go about their business.
The world is only getting more connected every day, and that's the main driver of the spread.  If this specific version of the novel coronavirus evolved in the exact same part of China 100 years ago, it likely wouldn't have spread beyond its native village.

The amount of increases in global connectivity in just the past two decades, is staggering.  Especially to and from China.

I mean, I certainly hope the next one is 100 years from now, but realistically I don't see any way it's not within 10-15 years.  And probably sooner than that.

HOWEVER-- we absolutely have learned a lot in the past year, on how to handle something like this.  From treatments to vaccine development to quarantine procedures to online work/school, we've already lived the experiment and are applying lessons learned in real time.  I honestly believe our capabilities will continue to improve dramatically in the coming years.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 11, 2021, 10:57:17 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/htRaCnY.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 11, 2021, 12:09:39 PM
apparently our national leadership wasn't horrible

I blame Trump and Biden
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 11, 2021, 12:44:41 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on March 10, 2021, 05:46:03 PM
I think almost everyone I know has had the Moderna one.  Almost everyone I’ve talked to felt pretty bad for 12-24 hours.  My wife got it at work that day.  That evening she started feeling sick to her stomach and vomited a couple of times.  Afterwards, she felt a little run down but by the next morning she felt good enough to go to work.  My boss told me after his wife’s second shot that it was the sickest he’s ever seen her and she didn’t feel good for about 3 days.  That’s the most extreme example I’ve heard.  What’s funny is it seems like the elderly do really well with the second shot.  I had a doctor  tell me the worst reactions are people in their 30’s and 40’s.  My 87 yo aunt did fine with the second shot, but she’s a cyborg. I’m convinced she’s going to bury all of us.

The only young person I know who felt fine afterwards was the COO at my wife’s clinic.  No reaction whatsoever.  We’ll see I guess.
after 3-4-5 shots of Beam I've felt fine no negative after effects
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 11, 2021, 12:47:15 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 11, 2021, 12:44:41 PM
after 3-4-5 shots of Beam I've felt fine no negative after effects
Not sure you felt much anything at that point :57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 11, 2021, 12:49:56 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 11, 2021, 10:40:41 AM
The world is only getting more connected every day, and that's the main driver of the spread.  If this specific version of the novel coronavirus evolved in the exact same part of China 100 years ago, it likely wouldn't have spread beyond its native village.
They're getting even for the two Opium Wars in the 1800s
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 11, 2021, 01:08:00 PM
LINCOLN, Neb. — Good news for Nebraska residents hoping to get the COVID-19 vaccine.

Governor Pete Ricketts says efforts to vaccinate long-term care facility staff are working, with no cases reported among those staff who did get vaccinated.

He also announced the results of a study showing Nebraska is the best state to get a vaccine for those over age 65.

"Phil Kirpin did a study of all the states percentage of 65-years-and-older folks that have been vaccinated and according to his calculations, we will post all this, Nebraska is number one as far as the percent of the population over 65 that has been vaccinated and that's what we obviously been focused on, 65-years-and-older are the ones greatest at risk," Gov. Ricketts said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on March 11, 2021, 10:08:49 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 07, 2021, 01:34:10 PM
I don't think the US count of deaths is inflated much at all, it corresponds closely with excess deaths due to all causes since last March.

The US had fewer than 2.9  million deaths in 2019, it's going to be 3.2 million for 2020, a very striking an unusual increase.  For March to March is will be 3.3 million plus, probably 3.4.

Yes, from CDC's database showing increase in deaths (b/c Covid) surpassing trendline for expected deaths:

(https://i.imgur.com/PitU6FU.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 12, 2021, 12:15:08 AM
So... small gatherings in our backyards by July 4th? 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 12, 2021, 08:11:17 AM
According to the Big Guy.

Small gatherings since January 1, according to ME.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 12, 2021, 09:11:55 AM
I can't help but wonder sometimes-- who does he think he's talking to?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on March 12, 2021, 09:23:00 AM
Bada bing this is going to be a fun summer. Hat tip to the big guy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 12, 2021, 09:30:53 AM
Been having fun since last summer. Hat tip to ME.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 12, 2021, 09:47:24 AM
Quote from: utee94 on March 12, 2021, 09:11:55 AM
I can't help but wonder sometimes-- who does he think he's talking to?


he has no idear, obviously
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 12, 2021, 09:48:23 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 12, 2021, 09:30:53 AM
Been having fun since last summer. Hat tip to ME.
had one of my best summers last year.  over 120 rounds of golf and too many Budweisers to count
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 12, 2021, 09:52:57 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 12, 2021, 09:30:53 AM
Been having fun since last summer. Hat tip to ME.

Yup.  Small backyard gatherings are what we did LAST 4th of July. 

It's certainly not what I'll be doing THIS 4th of July.  I already have tickets to a concert at a large outdoor venue.  And then we're going to Mexico for a week to celebrate our 20th anniversary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 12, 2021, 09:54:44 AM
FYI there is a nationwide standby list for excess COVID vaccines, in case places have extra that need to be used ASAP...

You can sign up here if interested: https://hidrb.com/

Hoping I get lucky and can get one before my "official" phase.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on March 12, 2021, 09:56:57 AM
We built a small mecca in the backyard last year with a bunch of outdoor furniture, a pool, and a TV. This year I'm partying and not in my backyard.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 12, 2021, 10:01:53 AM
I've been holding off on starting a series of golf lessons due to high case numbers in OC, the fact that I haven't been vaccinated, and because the pro I want to work with does the lessons at an indoor hitting bay place rather than outside on a range. 

With cases being as low as they are, I pulled the trigger on it and my first lesson is next Friday. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 12, 2021, 10:03:06 AM
Quote from: utee94 on March 12, 2021, 09:11:55 AM
I can't help but wonder sometimes-- who does he think he's talking to?
Who's he?Sleepy Joe
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 12, 2021, 10:03:26 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 12, 2021, 09:54:44 AM
FYI there is a nationwide standby list for excess COVID vaccines, in case places have extra that need to be used ASAP...

You can sign up here if interested: https://hidrb.com/

Hoping I get lucky and can get one before my "official" phase.

I'm still waiting, not only because I'm being cautious, but also because there are a lot of people that need it more than I do.  I work from home, and pretty much every other potential social situation, I've been managing since last May and I don't see any need to change what I'm doing.

I'll definitely get it knocked out before our trip to Mexico, though.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 12, 2021, 10:04:26 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 12, 2021, 09:54:44 AM
FYI there is a nationwide standby list for excess COVID vaccines, in case places have extra that need to be used ASAP...

You can sign up here if interested: https://hidrb.com/

Hoping I get lucky and can get one before my "official" phase.
you can have mine
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 12, 2021, 10:07:01 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 12, 2021, 09:30:53 AM
Been having fun since last summer. Hat tip to ME.
Quote from: utee94 on March 12, 2021, 09:52:57 AM
Yup.  Small backyard gatherings are what we did LAST 4th of July.
Oh you outrageous Rebels.Bucking the system,kicking "A",taking names...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 12, 2021, 10:09:14 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 12, 2021, 10:03:06 AM
Who's he?Sleepy Joe

I don't feel any need to name-call.

But yes I am referring to the address by POTUS last night.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 12, 2021, 10:14:27 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 12, 2021, 10:03:06 AM
Who's he?Sleepy Joe
this is not the political name calling thread
dern it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 12, 2021, 10:22:07 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 12, 2021, 10:04:26 AM
you can have mine
Just talked to an RN as I was in for an office visit.She said what has been mentioned here.Younger people seem to have more problems with the shots than older folks.She looked to be in her mid-late 30's and the 2nd shot according to her had horroble side effects.She said both her mother and 87 yr old GM had a little discomfort.They all received the Moderna Shots
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 12, 2021, 10:23:27 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 12, 2021, 10:14:27 AM
this is not the political name calling thread
dern it
Would you prefer Demented Joe?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 12, 2021, 10:25:16 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 12, 2021, 10:22:07 AM
Just talked to an RN as I was in for an office visit.She said what has been mentioned here.Younger people seem to have more problems with the shots than older folks.She looked to be in her mid-late 30's and the 2nd shot according to her had horroble side effects.She said both her mother and 87 yr old GM had a little discomfort.They all received the Moderna Shots
I haven't heard any correlation between age and side effects...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 12, 2021, 10:28:00 AM
I read a while back about this cytokine explosion thought to occur in folks with a highly active immune system, which might be some younger  folks.

My 32 year old son got pretty sick with it.  I felt kind of bad after Shot One.

Also, with tens of millions being vaccinated, we'll have reports of this and that which we'd also see within a "rep pop" sample that had not been vaccinated.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 12, 2021, 10:28:59 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 12, 2021, 10:25:16 AM
I haven't heard any correlation between age and side effects...

I have. It hits younger people harder for some reason. My doctor thinks it might have something to do with younger people having stronger immune systems, triggering a more "violent" response, but that's just a hunch.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 12, 2021, 01:52:53 PM
Well, first time ever, score one for the old people!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 12, 2021, 02:39:45 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 12, 2021, 10:25:16 AM
I haven't heard any correlation between age and side effects...

Just remember correlation does not mean causation 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 13, 2021, 10:12:07 AM
Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD on Twitter: "This morning, I testified as an expert physician epidemiologist on COVID in schools for a House of Representatives Round Table. It was a fascinating and productive experience. To me, the most important messages were as follows:" / Twitter (https://twitter.com/TracyBethHoeg/status/1370519945407176709)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 13, 2021, 10:41:46 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 13, 2021, 10:12:07 AM
Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD on Twitter: "This morning, I testified as an expert physician epidemiologist on COVID in schools for a House of Representatives Round Table. It was a fascinating and productive experience. To me, the most important messages were as follows:" / Twitter (https://twitter.com/TracyBethHoeg/status/1370519945407176709)


I'm glad that she's saying this.  But I'm confused as to why this is even a discussion at this point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 13, 2021, 10:48:58 AM
Common sense isn't so common at least the higher up the governmental ladder you go
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 13, 2021, 11:37:03 AM
Quote from: utee94 on March 13, 2021, 10:41:46 AM
It's glad that she's saying this.  But I'm confused as to why this is even a discussion at this point.
So are parents in half the states in this country of ours. And now they are starting to get really pissed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on March 13, 2021, 12:51:35 PM
As a FYI, I’m about 22 hours removed from my second Moderna shot.  Woke up this morning feeling a little achy, but nothing too bad.

Been active today. Put up some laundry, cooked breakfast, cleaned up the kitchen, ran a couple of errands for my wife. I will say I’m feeling it a little more right now.  I’m tired and achy and just feel like I want to lay around a little bit.  Ordinarily, I’d be hitting the gym at some point today but that isn’t going to happen.

But if this is as bad as it gets I’ll take it.  I’ve heard stories of crushing fatigue and terrible headaches, and I’ve had nothing like that. Just feeling a little rundown right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 13, 2021, 12:52:23 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 12, 2021, 02:39:45 PM
Just remember correlation does not mean causation
Yes, I'm aware of the post hoc ergo propter hoc logical fallacy. 

Quote from: utee94 on March 13, 2021, 10:41:46 AM
I'm glad that she's saying this.  But I'm confused as to why this is even a discussion at this point.
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 13, 2021, 11:37:03 AM
So are parents in half the states in this country of ours. And now they are starting to get really pissed.
Likewise I don't understand it. Here in Orange County, we've had the kids in school all year. Oddly the charter school was more cautious regarding closures when there were exposures than the public. Plenty of SoCal has been doing this all year, and without any disastrous effects.

Yet I believe LA Unified School District has been distance learning all year. 

You would have thought that perhaps after seeing other counties successfully manage during the first semester, they'd have started planning for second-semester return. But some are still talking about IF, not how, they'll return to in-person this fall. 

I don't get it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 13, 2021, 01:11:47 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 13, 2021, 12:52:23 PM
Yes, I'm aware of the post hoc ergo propter hoc logical fallacy.
Likewise I don't understand it. Here in Orange County, we've had the kids in school all year. Oddly the charter school was more cautious regarding closures when there were exposures than the public. Plenty of SoCal has been doing this all year, and without any disastrous effects.

Yet I believe LA Unified School District has been distance learning all year.

You would have thought that perhaps after seeing other counties successfully manage during the first semester, they'd have started planning for second-semester return. But some are still talking about IF, not how, they'll return to in-person this fall.

I don't get it.
Yeah that's the part that's totally shocking to me. Mind-boggling.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 13, 2021, 06:02:47 PM
The folks who have not had shots at all have also experienced "side effects", they just didn't attribute it to the shot.  It was just life.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 14, 2021, 09:33:19 AM
Quote from: utee94 on March 13, 2021, 01:11:47 PM
Yeah that's the part that's totally shocking to me. Mind-boggling.
Teacher's Unions have far more power than they should.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 14, 2021, 09:45:39 AM
France has had in school learning since August.

Their K-12 is of course Federalized.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on March 14, 2021, 09:50:57 AM
Sometimes problems can be complex. Columbus Public was delayed opening up, though it wasn't the teacher's unions, it was that they didn't have enough buses because kids could only sit one at a seat. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on March 14, 2021, 10:29:19 AM
My kids have had in person instruction basically the entire year. I say basically because they followed the public school state map. So, when our county was in the red the school would go virtual for the week. They also went virtual the week after Thanksgiving break and for two weeks after Christmas break.

Altogether they have had 26 weeks of instruction and I would say about 20 of those have been the 5 day,  in person variety.  If there has been one positive case among the students or faculty I’m unaware of it.  

I will say the public schools here in WV went back full time just a couple weeks ago and I know some of the local schools around here have experienced some mini outbreaks. One school in a neighboring county  already went back to virtual.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 14, 2021, 10:42:24 AM
Quote from: Kris60 on March 14, 2021, 10:29:19 AM
My kids have had in person instruction basically the entire year. I say basically because they followed the public school state map. So, when our county was in the red the school would go virtual for the week. They also went virtual the week after Thanksgiving break and for two weeks after Christmas break.

Altogether they have had 26 weeks of instruction and I would say about 20 of those have been the 5 day,  in person variety.  If there has been one positive case among the students or faculty I’m unaware of it. 

I will say the public schools here in WV went back full time just a couple weeks ago and I know some of the local schools around here have experienced some mini outbreaks. One school in a neighboring county  already went back to virtual.

Are they really "mini-outbreaks" or are they just positive tests?  We've had a handful of those, and each and every time it has been a student that was infected through their home life, and came to school, before knowing they were exposed.  In our specific schools, there is not one single case of those students infecting anyone else at school.  

This is of course for my kids who are in elementary and middle school. High school transmission is a little more iffy, but I can say that our high schools haven't shut down due to cases, either.  Any student that exhibits symptoms and/or tests positive, induces contact-tracing efforts and anyone deemed a "close contact" is sent home to quarantine and do online-school for 2 weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 14, 2021, 10:49:00 AM
PARIS — Officials say the Paris region may be headed toward a new lockdown as new variants of the virus fill up intensive care units and limited vaccine supplies drag down inoculation efforts.

Special medical planes dispatched patients from the Paris area to less-saturated regions over the weekend.

“If we have to lock down, we will do it,” the head of the national health agency, Jerome Salomon, said on BFM television Sunday. “The situation is complex, tense and is worsening in the Paris region.”

Salomon acknowledges that a nationwide 6 p.m. curfew “wasn’t enough” in some regions to prevent a spike in cases, notably of the variant first identified in Britain.

The French government has been relying on curfews for months -- along with the long-term closures of restaurants and some other businesses -- to try to avoid a costly new lockdown. But localized outbreaks are raising questions about the government’s virus-fighting strategy.

Salomon says France has more people in intensive care for COVID-19 and other ailments – about 6,300 -- than the overall number of ICU beds it had going into the pandemic.

France has reported 90,315 virus-related deaths, among the world’s highest death tolls.


https://apnews.com/article/pandemics-pakistan-islamabad-coronavirus-pandemic-europe-48d675ad33ab33fff3c78fe74e36dfcc (https://apnews.com/article/pandemics-pakistan-islamabad-coronavirus-pandemic-europe-48d675ad33ab33fff3c78fe74e36dfcc)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on March 14, 2021, 03:26:52 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 14, 2021, 10:42:24 AM
Are they really "mini-outbreaks" or are they just positive tests?  We've had a handful of those, and each and every time it has been a student that was infected through their home life, and came to school, before knowing they were exposed.  In our specific schools, there is not one single case of those students infecting anyone else at school. 

This is of course for my kids who are in elementary and middle school. High school transmission is a little more iffy, but I can say that our high schools haven't shut down due to cases, either.  Any student that exhibits symptoms and/or tests positive, induces contact-tracing efforts and anyone deemed a "close contact" is sent home to quarantine and do online-school for 2 weeks.

I honestly don’t know. It may just be situations like you are describing.  There was a  HS though that already went back to virtual after just two weeks of in person though.  I don’t know if it’s temporary or what, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 14, 2021, 04:24:01 PM
Europe seems to be climbing, and that happened in the past 2-3 weeks before we emulated that same trend.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 15, 2021, 08:02:00 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/Zjz99Xh.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 15, 2021, 08:07:10 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 14, 2021, 04:24:01 PM
Europe seems to be climbing, and that happened in the past 2-3 weeks before we emulated that same trend.


I guess we'll see, but this could be partially why Europe is climbing.


(https://i.imgur.com/4K9pANf.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/IRKLX1f.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/myisDAG.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on March 15, 2021, 08:28:24 AM
Feels like Europe has been a few weeks ahead of us on this the whole time. It wouldn't be surprising to see another small wave. But US vaccinations have been strong so we might avoid it or at least minimize the damage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 15, 2021, 08:36:18 AM
Spring break is concerning to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 15, 2021, 11:26:18 AM
Just like last year.
Good thing we learn from our mista.......nevermind.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 15, 2021, 11:35:03 AM
There was no huge spring break spike here last year. My concern is that the newer variants spread easier.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 15, 2021, 11:54:44 AM
Eh.

Anyone willing to go to spring break has already had COVID.

Twice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 15, 2021, 11:55:57 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 15, 2021, 11:35:03 AM
There was no huge spring break spike here last year. My concern is that the newer variants spread easier.
It wasn't about a spike there, but all of those spring breakers taking new germs back home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 15, 2021, 11:59:26 AM
No evidence of that. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 15, 2021, 12:03:09 PM
just because there's no evidence, doesn't mean it didn't happen
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 15, 2021, 12:12:13 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 15, 2021, 12:03:09 PM
just because there's no evidence, doesn't mean it didn't happen
Well that’s a nice thought. Is it still “science “ or can we chalk it up to politics?  😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 15, 2021, 12:37:09 PM
not sure how much contact tracing they were doing back then

I'd say lack of science

the politicians would have loved to blame college kids and the governors of Florida and Texas
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 15, 2021, 12:37:14 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 15, 2021, 12:03:09 PM
just because there's no evidence, doesn't mean it didn't happen
Take your Russia talk to the In Other News thread.


:86:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 15, 2021, 12:47:46 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 15, 2021, 12:37:09 PM
not sure how much contact tracing they were doing back then

I'd say lack of science

the politicians would have loved to blame college kids and the governors of Florida and Texas
They did. MSM too. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 15, 2021, 12:48:09 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 15, 2021, 12:37:14 PM
Take your Russia talk to the In Other News thread.


:86:
😂😂👍
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 15, 2021, 01:21:06 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on March 15, 2021, 11:59:26 AM
No evidence of that.
Uhh, you don't recall the cell phone map?  
And spring breakers bringing new germs back home with them is a certainty.  Whether they caused covid spikes back home would require evidence, yes.  
But since when are you concerned with evidence?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 15, 2021, 01:28:53 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 15, 2021, 01:21:06 PM
Uhh, you don't recall the cell phone map? 
And spring breakers bringing new germs back home with them is a certainty.  Whether they caused covid spikes back home would require evidence, yes. 
But since when are you concerned with evidence?
You tell me OFA.  Which side will make you agree with me?
The side that claims “science” but provides zero evidence for it and harasses those who don’t follow their rules? Or the side that presents evidence but has the evidence shut down by the main stream media?

you see how it has been working?  There is no winning here. 

And yes I very clearly remember that cell phone map. It illustrated that the kids leaving the college campuses were taking the spread with them from the college campuses and taking them with them wherever they went.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 15, 2021, 01:36:02 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on March 15, 2021, 01:28:53 PM
You tell me OFA.  Which side will make you agree with me?
The side that claims “science” but provides zero evidence for it and harasses those who don’t follow their rules? Or the side that presents evidence but has the evidence shut down by the main stream media?

you see how it has been working?  There is no winning here. 

All evidence isn't equal.
The lack of evidence you bitch about is largely the UNCERTAINTY science made a note of when all of this began.  And with uncertainty comes cautiousness.  Not truth, not slanted news coverage, just prudent cautiousness.  
.
On the other side, the "evidence" is that in name only.  Or it's circumstantial.  Or anecdotal.  Those types of evidences do exist, and sadly, aren't "good" or convincing.  One side doesn't know what valid evidence even is.  
.
Personally, I find a conversation about evidence with a believer as a colossal waste of time.  But I can't say that, because you'll feel attacked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 15, 2021, 01:45:10 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 15, 2021, 01:36:02 PM
All evidence isn't equal.
The lack of evidence you bitch about is largely the UNCERTAINTY science made a note of when all of this began.  And with uncertainty comes cautiousness.  Not truth, not slanted news coverage, just prudent cautiousness. 
.
On the other side, the "evidence" is that in name only.  Or it's circumstantial.  Or anecdotal.  Those types of evidences do exist, and sadly, aren't "good" or convincing.  One side doesn't know what valid evidence even is. 
.
Personally, I find a conversation about evidence with a believer as a colossal waste of time.  But I can't say that, because you'll feel attacked.
No- I actually agree with you-except-  Nobody gets a pass here. All “ sides” used the term “ science “ for political gain, IMHO.  That is a big disappointment. 
if I give you an example it’s not to point the finger but just to give a very clear example. When the governor of Michigan locked down churches but kept dispensaries open and liquor stores, even when the churches agreed to require masks and practice strict social distancing, she cited “science“.  Really?  Evidence?   
that’s all I am saying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 15, 2021, 01:49:41 PM
Should be pretty easy to figure out-- was there a large spike in hospitalizations in the areas of dispersement on the map below, within 3 weeks of April 4th (the date of this map)?

I don't recall there being anything major-- other than in areas that were already hot spots like NYC-- until June/July.  But I certainly don't remember everything about what happened after Spring Break last year.

(https://i.imgur.com/YMC0nPo.png)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 15, 2021, 02:45:46 PM
Back then, I believe I made the point about fans in stadiums, but it's the same point......no one did that research.  I'm not complaining,it would be a herculean task. 
But no one drilled down and did a focused study on that, did they?  I'd be stunned if they did, anyway.
.
It was likely that the two 20 year olds breathing in each other's faces having sex for the 3rd time spread Covid.  None of them were likely in a confined indoor space with many other people for an extended period of time.  
It's just all a mess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 15, 2021, 06:09:16 PM
BERLIN (AP) — A cascading number of European countries — including Germany, France, Italy and Spain — suspended use of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine Monday over reports of dangerous blood clots in some recipients, though the company and international regulators say there is no evidence the shot is to blame.

AstraZeneca’s formula is one of three vaccines in use on the continent. But the escalating concern is another setback for the European Union’s vaccination drive, which has been plagued by shortages and other hurdles and is lagging well behind the campaigns in Britain and the U.S.

The EU’s drug regulatory agency called a meeting for Thursday to review experts’ findings on the AstraZeneca shot and decide whether action needs to be taken.

The furor comes as much of Europe is tightening restrictions on schools and businesses amid surging cases of COVID-19.

Germany’s health minister said the decision to suspend AstraZeneca shots was taken on the advice of the country’s vaccine regulator, the Paul Ehrlich Institute, which called for further investigation into seven cases of clots in the brains of people who had been vaccinated.

“Today’s decision is a purely precautionary measure,” Jens Spahn said.

French President Emmanuel Macron said his country will likewise stop dispensing the vaccine until at least Tuesday afternoon. Italy also announced a temporary ban, as did Spain, Portugal and Slovenia.

Other countries that have done so over the past few days include Denmark, which was the first, as well as Ireland, Thailand, the Netherlands, Norway, Iceland, Congo and Bulgaria. Canada and Britain are standing by the vaccine for now.


https://apnews.com/article/germany-suspends-astrazeneca-vaccine-blood-clotting-0ab2c4fe13370c96c873e896387eb92f (https://apnews.com/article/germany-suspends-astrazeneca-vaccine-blood-clotting-0ab2c4fe13370c96c873e896387eb92f)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 15, 2021, 06:15:08 PM
Thank You FF I was going to post similar,you get a Yuengling
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 15, 2021, 06:21:59 PM
I sold my AZN holdings about 1.5 months ago. Glad I did.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 15, 2021, 06:43:35 PM
I keep seeing headlines showing folks are afraid or just not planning to get vaccinated..............

It's also apparent to me that the folks against the vaccine are less educated overall.

Why isn't there a national or state by state effort to educate folks about the vaccines?  benefits and detriments 

again, no concise clear message from leaders.  not the CDC, not the White House, not Governors, no one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 15, 2021, 06:54:50 PM
45 needs to step up and tell his "people" to get the vaccine. Shit, he got the damn thing, and he had the Wuhan Flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 15, 2021, 07:06:41 PM
I agree, but he is who he is.

apparently 46 and the rest of the "leaders" aren't much better

just as I thought
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 15, 2021, 07:17:34 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 15, 2021, 06:43:35 PM
I keep seeing headlines showing folks are afraid or just not planning to get vaccinated..............

It's also apparent to me that the folks against the vaccine are less educated overall.

Why isn't there a national or state by state effort to educate folks about the vaccines?  benefits and detriments

again, no concise clear message from leaders.  not the CDC, not the White House, not Governors, no one.
Funny I’m seeing and hearing the exact opposite on both counts. I haven’t really read or seen much about people being against the vaccines but I keep hearing that they are the problem and that Biden and Company are going to do an all out front on educating people why they need the vaccine. For example they already enlisted George Bush Junior and I already heard him on the radio.

Today I heard that California’s governor is blaming his recall problems on “the anti-VAX people”.    Yeah those six people in California are really hurting him LOL.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 15, 2021, 07:46:53 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 15, 2021, 06:54:50 PM
45 needs to step up and tell his "people" to get the vaccine. Shit, he got the damn thing, and he had the Wuhan Flu.
Yeah, I don't get it. He and FLOTUS got it in secret and it didn't come out until ~2 weeks ago. 

He has no trouble taking all the credit for the vaccine--that he's not endorsing people to actually get. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 15, 2021, 07:57:24 PM
this was a story recently.................

https://www.sacbee.com/news/article249943718.html (https://www.sacbee.com/news/article249943718.html)


A Florida correctional officer polled his colleagues earlier this year in a private Facebook group: “Will you take the COVID-19 vaccine if offered?”

The answer from more than half: “Hell no.” Only 40 of the 475 respondents said yes.

In Massachusetts, more than half the people employed by the Department of Correction declined to be immunized. A statewide survey in California showed that half of all correction employees will wait to be vaccinated. In Rhode Island, prison staff have refused the vaccine at higher rates than the incarcerated, according to medical director Dr. Justin Berk. And in Iowa, early polling among employees showed a little more than half the staff said they’d get vaccinated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 15, 2021, 08:08:47 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 15, 2021, 06:54:50 PM
45 needs to step up and tell his "people" to get the vaccine. Shit, he got the damn thing, and he had the Wuhan Flu.
Biden, Fauci appear at odds over calling on Trump to urge supporters get vaccinated

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-fauci-odds-calling-trump-urge-supporters-vaccinated/story?id=76471342
 (https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-fauci-odds-calling-trump-urge-supporters-vaccinated/story?id=76471342)
President Joe Biden appeared to be at odds with his top scientist in the pandemic fight, Dr. Anthony Fauci, about whether former president Donald Trump should urge his supporters to get vaccinated, given a poll that shows they are the Americans most likely not to get the shots.

"Should President Trump help promote the vaccine amongst skeptics, sir? Especially those Republicans who say that they’re not willing ... ," a reporter at the White House asked at the end of an event Monday.

"I'm hearing a lot of reports from serious reporters like you saying that. I discussed it with my team, and they say the thing that has more impact than anything Trump would say to the MAGA folks, is what the local doctors, what the local preachers, what the local people in the community say," Biden responded. "So, I urge all local [doctors] and ministers and priests to talk about why it's important to get that vaccine, and even after that, until everyone is, in fact, vaccinated to wear this mask."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 15, 2021, 08:09:48 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on March 15, 2021, 07:17:34 PM
Funny I’m seeing and hearing the exact opposite on both counts. I haven’t really read or seen much about people being against the vaccines but I keep hearing that they are the problem and that Biden and Company are going to do an all out front on educating people why they need the vaccine. For example they already enlisted George Bush Junior and I already heard him on the radio.

Today I heard that California’s governor is blaming his recall problems on “the anti-VAX people”.    Yeah those six people in California are really hurting him LOL.
this is encouraging
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 15, 2021, 08:28:08 PM
I file this whole category under the umbrella of:

Let’s blame it on the “maga” crowd. 

Lol. Blame what?  Your made up problem?  Who were the ones very loudly and publicly pooh-poohing the idea of a vaccine back in the fall? Who created that doubt? We all know the answer.   

Vaccinate every single human being that wants to be vaccinated and those who don’t will eventually come around and stoo making it a bigger deal than it really is for chrissake
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 16, 2021, 06:18:43 AM
I know folks bragging about the vaccine as a triumph before the election now claiming it is dangerous.

And vice versa.

Confirmation bias at work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on March 16, 2021, 06:23:18 AM
I don't know if it's a blame anyone thing.  There are polls out there showing various groups and how likely they are to take the vaccine, and white Republicans were way out ahead as far as not taking it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 16, 2021, 06:28:42 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 16, 2021, 06:18:43 AM
I know folks bragging about the vaccine as a triumph before the election now claiming it is dangerous.

And vice versa.

Confirmation bias at work.
Folks?   If true I agree.  I just haven’t seen or heard of an example of that in the high level political world as was the case on the flip side.  Presidential candidates, (now Prez and VP)speaker, etc, openly criticizing the vaccine, saying it would take years and literally saying it can’t be trusted.  That happened.  You can’t simply undo that or pretend it didn’t.  It did.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 16, 2021, 06:34:37 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on March 16, 2021, 06:23:18 AM
I don't know if it's a blame anyone thing.  There are polls out there showing various groups and how likely they are to take the vaccine, and white Republicans were way out ahead as far as not taking it.
I haven’t seen such polls but I’ll take your word for it.   If true though you’re almost can’t blame them given the unbelievable mixed messages they’ve been getting about this whole thing including Fauci CDC the mainstream media and the politicians.   
Also, as time goes by and the effectiveness becomes even more clear statistically those people will come on board.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 16, 2021, 08:03:53 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on March 16, 2021, 06:23:18 AM
I don't know if it's a blame anyone thing.  There are polls out there showing various groups and how likely they are to take the vaccine, and white Republicans were way out ahead as far as not taking it.
Interesting read here. It's no wonder they have doubts, given what was said by the current administration last Fall.


COVID vaccine survey: 45% of African Americans, 35% of Latinos in Cook County have doubts - Chicago Tribune


 (https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/vaccine/ct-coronavirus-vaccine-cook-county-survey-campaign-20210315-qpsh25op2bftbhsl7ku7jhxoge-story.html#nws=true)Point me to the polls you are referring to please.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on March 16, 2021, 08:09:38 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 16, 2021, 08:03:53 AM
Interesting read here. It's no wonder they have doubts, given what was said by the current administration last Fall.


COVID vaccine survey: 45% of African Americans, 35% of Latinos in Cook County have doubts - Chicago Tribune


 (https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/vaccine/ct-coronavirus-vaccine-cook-county-survey-campaign-20210315-qpsh25op2bftbhsl7ku7jhxoge-story.html#nws=true)Point me to the polls you are referring to please.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.yahoo.com/amphtml/white-republicans-more-likely-reject-200442622.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on March 16, 2021, 08:33:32 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 15, 2021, 07:57:24 PM
this was a story recently.................

https://www.sacbee.com/news/article249943718.html (https://www.sacbee.com/news/article249943718.html)


A Florida correctional officer polled his colleagues earlier this year in a private Facebook group: “Will you take the COVID-19 vaccine if offered?”

The answer from more than half: “Hell no.” Only 40 of the 475 respondents said yes.

In Massachusetts, more than half the people employed by the Department of Correction declined to be immunized. A statewide survey in California showed that half of all correction employees will wait to be vaccinated. In Rhode Island, prison staff have refused the vaccine at higher rates than the incarcerated, according to medical director Dr. Justin Berk. And in Iowa, early polling among employees showed a little more than half the staff said they’d get vaccinated.

It does lead to a sort of fascinating question of if prisoners should be high or low on the vaccine list. The idea they were high cause outrage in enough corners that they were dropped, but it leads to a discussion. They are nominally under the care of the people. They're in a situation where they can't prevent spread even if they wanted to. The might be an incubation spot for new strains. But on the other hand, it feels weird that having done a crime gets you something that lots of people want. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 16, 2021, 08:46:21 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on March 16, 2021, 08:09:38 AM
https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.yahoo.com/amphtml/white-republicans-more-likely-reject-200442622.html
I don't believe that poll for a minute. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 16, 2021, 08:49:02 AM
unless they just targeted the far right
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 16, 2021, 08:53:14 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on March 16, 2021, 08:33:32 AM
It does lead to a sort of fascinating question of if prisoners should be high or low on the vaccine list. The idea they were high cause outrage in enough corners that they were dropped, but it leads to a discussion. They are nominally under the care of the people. They're in a situation where they can't prevent spread even if they wanted to. The might be an incubation spot for new strains. But on the other hand, it feels weird that having done a crime gets you something that lots of people want.
if they polled correctional officers, I'd guess they also polled prisoners.
I'd guess most prisoners would complain if they couldn't get the vaccine, or not right away, but when offered they would be a high percentage to refuse the vaccine

the strange one for me was health care workers
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 16, 2021, 09:02:54 AM
I guess we'll find out when the states release their final vaccination percentages later this year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 16, 2021, 09:32:17 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 16, 2021, 08:46:21 AM
I don't believe that poll for a minute.
Because....................you disagree with it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 16, 2021, 09:49:37 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 16, 2021, 09:32:17 AM
Because....................you disagree with it?

I do disagree with it.

Because it doesn't represent the very many people I know - most of which lean right.

I have hundreds of friends, employees, peers, board colleagues, etc. and only one person has said no. Maybe NPR could poll those people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 16, 2021, 10:04:51 AM
Europe is doing worse than the US on vaccine rates and anti ax sentiment is higher in Europe than here.  Their case rates are increasing in several countries.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 16, 2021, 10:05:58 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 16, 2021, 10:04:51 AM
Europe is doing worse than the US on vaccine rates and anti ax sentiment is higher in Europe than here.  Their case rates are increasing in several countries.


I do have friends in Amsterdam who will not get it. At least not yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 16, 2021, 10:09:55 AM
I am not sure about that poll but it doesn’t match what I am seeing at all.

Either way, the way to go about fixing that is to answer questions for those who have them about the vaccine and win them over with the answers to those questions. But instead what I see is anyone who questions anything about vaccines is now censored out of social media or made fun of. That’s a vicious circle because that’s not going to create trust.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 16, 2021, 10:13:21 AM
why would a majority of republicans not want to take the vaccine

whats the benefit
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 16, 2021, 10:15:58 AM
There are more anti vaxxers in Europe than the US.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 16, 2021, 10:16:14 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 16, 2021, 09:49:37 AM
I do disagree with it.

Because it doesn't represent the very many people I know - most of which lean right.

I have hundreds of friends, employees, peers, board colleagues, etc. and only one person has said no. Maybe NPR could poll those people.
FFS.......YOUR ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE ISN'T MORE VALID THAN WIDESPREAD POLLING.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 16, 2021, 10:17:17 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on March 16, 2021, 10:09:55 AM
I am not sure about that poll but it doesn’t match what I am seeing at all.

FFS.........YOUR ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE ISN'T MORE VALID THAN WIDESPREAD POLLING.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 16, 2021, 10:18:45 AM
You guys REALLY need to get off your "people I know don't think that" horses.  I mean seriously.  Open your eyes.  The world is a little bigger than the 200 people you interact with every day. You know this, but there you are, stuck on your horse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 16, 2021, 10:25:21 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 16, 2021, 10:15:58 AM
There are more anti vaxxers in Europe than the US.
Where evidently there have been more than a few cases reported of patients having blood clots after getting vaccinated
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 16, 2021, 10:27:53 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 16, 2021, 10:16:14 AM
FFS.......YOUR "WIDESPREAD" POLLING ISN'T MORE VALID THAN ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE.
Agreed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 16, 2021, 10:49:24 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 16, 2021, 10:18:45 AM
You guys REALLY need to get off your "people I know don't think that" horses.  I mean seriously.  Open your eyes.  The world is a little bigger than the 200 people you interact with every day. You know this, but there you are, stuck on your horse.
By “ open your eyes” do you really mean get in line?  Lol.  Like- when we are being told that masks aren’t important, and then they are? Or when we are told “6 ft” but now we learn it is 3ft?  Like when we are told science says going to church and to school is spreading the virus, but mass arm in arm protests aren’t? Or when we are told “ there is no way an effective vaccine could be developed and leveraged any sooner than mid year 2021, but now we-are being told the opposite? Or one of my all time favorites- we are told that a poll says candidate #1 is up by 10 points in State A, but the results are that candidate B wins?
Thankfully- we are not all lemmings who swallow the absolute garbage the MSM is spewing.

you on the other hand......
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 16, 2021, 11:09:38 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 16, 2021, 10:18:45 AM
You guys REALLY need to get off your "people I know don't think that" horses.  I mean seriously.  Open your eyes.  The world is a little bigger than the 200 people you interact with every day. You know this, but there you are, stuck on your horse.
so, you think all "polls" are fair and balanced?

if someone polled 1000 college football fans or 1000 random folks and the poll showed that Roger Craig was the most popular college football player of all-time, would you be skeptical?

or would you saddle up?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 16, 2021, 11:13:23 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 16, 2021, 10:25:21 AM
Where evidently there have been more than a few cases reported of patients having blood clots after getting vaccinated
Apparently, the rate is lower than in the rep pop, but that isn't certain yet.  You  have to compare similar groups.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 16, 2021, 11:19:47 AM

“Europe is the world’s epicenter of vaccine skepticism,” Deutsch and Wheaton of Politico Europe write. That skepticism predated Covid, and now its consequences are becoming clear.


In a survey published in the journal Nature Medicine (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/WP63Up4-0VgZp6Z8dmjY7g~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRiMwxMP0TKaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubmF0dXJlLmNvbS9hcnRpY2xlcy9zNDE1OTEtMDIwLTExMjQtOS5wZGY_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIxMDMxNiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yODEwMCZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTE1MzM2ODkxMCZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTUzNDkwJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0QgpgSEyHUGDta5GuUhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~), residents of 19 countries were asked if they would take a Covid vaccine that had been “proven safe and effective.” In China, 89 percent of people said yes. In the U.S., 75 percent did. The shares were lower across most of Europe: 68 percent in Germany, 65 percent in Sweden, 59 percent in France and 56 percent in Poland.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 16, 2021, 11:27:42 AM
it used to be OK to joke about the Polish people
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 16, 2021, 11:53:47 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 16, 2021, 11:09:38 AM
so, you think all "polls" are fair and balanced?

if someone polled 1000 college football fans or 1000 random folks and the poll showed that Roger Craig was the most popular college football player of all-time, would you be skeptical?

or would you saddle up?
How do you take my "widespread polls are more valid than your anecdotal evidence" to "all polls are fair and balanced"??  This is why a conversation is impossible with some people.
The leaps you make.  Go try out for the Olympics.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 16, 2021, 11:55:05 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 16, 2021, 10:27:53 AM
Agreed.
I know you're far too old and set in your ways to change or acknowledge being wrong, but you're still wrong.  No one's anecdotal data is more valid than widespread polling - not yours and not mine. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 16, 2021, 11:56:12 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 16, 2021, 11:19:47 AM
“Europe is the world’s epicenter of vaccine skepticism,” Deutsch and Wheaton of Politico Europe write. That skepticism predated Covid, and now its consequences are becoming clear.


In a survey published in the journal Nature Medicine (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/WP63Up4-0VgZp6Z8dmjY7g~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRiMwxMP0TKaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubmF0dXJlLmNvbS9hcnRpY2xlcy9zNDE1OTEtMDIwLTExMjQtOS5wZGY_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIxMDMxNiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yODEwMCZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTE1MzM2ODkxMCZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTUzNDkwJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0QgpgSEyHUGDta5GuUhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~), residents of 19 countries were asked if they would take a Covid vaccine that had been “proven safe and effective.” In China, 89 percent of people said yes. In the U.S., 75 percent did. The shares were lower across most of Europe: 68 percent in Germany, 65 percent in Sweden, 59 percent in France and 56 percent in Poland.




This is why China is winning.  They're not dumb.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 16, 2021, 11:58:38 AM
they're not dumb.  They don't want to disappear, so they take their government's advice
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 16, 2021, 11:59:47 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 16, 2021, 11:53:47 AM
How do you take my "widespread polls are more valid than your anecdotal evidence" to "all polls are fair and balanced"??  This is why a conversation is impossible with some people.
The leaps you make.  Go try out for the Olympics.
it's not much of a leap to be skeptical of a poll
you don't need to be able to jump like Bruce Jenner
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 16, 2021, 12:00:00 PM
It's not about rights or gov't or any of that crap.  It's about the phrase "proven safe and effective."  With that phrasing, all of those numbers should be 100%. 
China is just the least dumb, so they win.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 16, 2021, 12:01:08 PM
it would be nice to see the questions asked for this poll

many times you can create the desired outcome just by phrasing the question in a certain way
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 16, 2021, 12:03:18 PM
or simply asking the questions of the certain people
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 16, 2021, 12:05:26 PM
A lot of polling is bad, no question, not because I disagree, but because it is ineptly done.  The major polling firms are pretty good generally.  They have a track record that can be judged.  They aren't perfect, but they are, IMHO, pretty good.  

A poll by some outfit I never heard of is something I disregard.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 16, 2021, 12:08:18 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 16, 2021, 10:17:17 AM
FFS.........YOUR ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE ISN'T MORE VALID THAN WIDESPREAD POLLING.
https://www.sacbee.com/news/article249943718.html (https://www.sacbee.com/news/article249943718.html)


A Florida correctional officer polled his colleagues earlier this year in a private Facebook group: “Will you take the COVID-19 vaccine if offered?”

The answer from more than half: “Hell no.” Only 40 of the 475 respondents said yes.

This isn't wide spread polling obviously.  It's one guy far from expert in the field of polling asking around, on Facebook.  One item that makes it dubious is the response factor.  It could be that a LOT of folks in this private group didn't respond who could have said they would get it, because when you post you are getting it you get criticized by antivaxxers.

This is in no way a valid poll.  At all.  


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 16, 2021, 12:16:06 PM
He thinks a poll taken in China is accurate.  

“Under penalty of death, will you take this vaccine?”

😂😂😂😂😂😂

There in lies the problem- he wants our system/government/lack of culture to be like theirs.  

Maybe I should start listening to him but then again I keep seeing thousands of people immigrate from China to the United States but almost nothing the other way???
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 16, 2021, 12:30:20 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 16, 2021, 12:08:18 PM
https://www.sacbee.com/news/article249943718.html (https://www.sacbee.com/news/article249943718.html)


A Florida correctional officer polled his colleagues earlier this year in a private Facebook group: “Will you take the COVID-19 vaccine if offered?”

This is in no way a valid poll.  At all. 


private group could have been the QAnon conspiracy theorist correction officers
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 16, 2021, 12:38:40 PM
Folks tend to join groups on FB that afford common interests, and often opinions.  This well could be a FB group of corrections officers who are very conservative, and perhaps another group is for those who are very liberal.

Something I have chuckled over is how several changed their views quite openly on the vaccine once Biden became President, in both directions.

As if somehow the President has anything to do with the safety of the vaccines.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on March 16, 2021, 12:56:09 PM
I will get dose 1 on Saturday.   IN now serving 45 and up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 16, 2021, 01:03:33 PM
Fantastic. 

Florida is now 60 and up, but there are a lot more of those here than in Indiana. Older seasonal residents don't help this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 16, 2021, 01:06:54 PM
I'm thinking about doing a poll here asking whether football should be outright banned as a sport.

I could report the results as being a "wide spread poll".
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 16, 2021, 01:07:20 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 16, 2021, 11:59:47 AM
it's not much of a leap to be skeptical of a poll
you don't need to be able to jump like Bruce Jenner
The validity of a poll has more to do with its sample size and less to do whether a person agrees with it or not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 16, 2021, 01:08:19 PM
waiting for my number to be called

I'm a young guy at 58 1/2
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 16, 2021, 01:09:06 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 16, 2021, 12:08:18 PM
https://www.sacbee.com/news/article249943718.html (https://www.sacbee.com/news/article249943718.html)


A Florida correctional officer polled his colleagues earlier this year in a private Facebook group: “Will you take the COVID-19 vaccine if offered?”

The answer from more than half: “Hell no.” Only 40 of the 475 respondents said yes.

This isn't wide spread polling obviously.  It's one guy far from expert in the field of polling asking around, on Facebook.  One item that makes it dubious is the response factor.  It could be that a LOT of folks in this private group didn't respond who could have said they would get it, because when you post you are getting it you get criticized by antivaxxers.

This is in no way a valid poll.  At all. 



You're exactly right.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 16, 2021, 01:10:54 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 16, 2021, 01:07:20 PM
The validity of a poll has more to do with its sample size and less to do whether a person agrees with it or not.
I will agree.  Many times we aren't informed of the sample size.

but, we have 475 florida corrections employees 
do you consider 475 a valid size?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 16, 2021, 01:11:32 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 16, 2021, 01:07:20 PM
The validity of a poll has more to do with its sample size and less to do whether a person agrees with it or not.
It has a LOT to do with the nature of the group being polled.  Rep sample?  Or selective?

Sample size is less important than the nature of the group.  I could poll a million liberal voters and get one answer and vice versa.  Poll size doesn't compensate for an unbalanced polling group.

And it's not easy to assure the polled group is reflective of the greater whole.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 16, 2021, 01:14:42 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 16, 2021, 01:11:32 PM
It has a LOT to do with the nature of the group being polled.  Rep sample?  Or selective?

Sample size is less important than the nature of the group.  I could poll a million liberal voters and get one answer and vice versa.  Poll size doesn't compensate for an unbalanced polling group.

And it's not easy to assure the polled group is reflective of the greater whole.
That's simply negated by specifying the population you polled.  A million liberal voters is going to produce VERY valid results as long as you know they polled liberal voters.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 16, 2021, 01:17:20 PM
IF the selection is obvious in the poll, then yes, but it's not always obvious, nor balanced, nor explained, especially by lesser known polling outfits.

Obviously, a poll of some FB group is ridiculous by any metric.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on March 16, 2021, 01:17:40 PM
Personally I would never get the vaccine, I would never get the flu vaccine. I am not an anti-vaxer I just don't like the idea of injecting myself with foreign bodies, whether dead virus, live weaken virus or mRNA.  I have never had the flu, never had pneumonia, generally very healthy for my 60 years. 

I certainly don't like the idea that the Covid vaccines haven't been tested as much as other vaccines. I have recommended to my wife (the investor in my family) to hold the Moderna, Pfzifer and Johnson & Johnson Stocks for the ride up, but don't hold long term because I can see the lawsuits coming from whatever side effects that will be attributed to the vaccines. 

All that said, I love my newborn granddaughter who was born with CF more than I hate getting vaccinated, so I have got the flu shot and have received the 1st covid shot. 

Personally I think I am more likely to get sick from the vaccines than I think I will catch what the vaccine is protecting me against. But I don't think I will get so sick from the vaccines. 

And I am still convinced we have responded completely wrong to the pandemic.  They only thing we did is spread out the area under the curve and destroyed so many people and their livelihood unnecessarily. The "supposed" cure was worse than the disease. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 16, 2021, 01:28:38 PM
535,000 Americans disagree
2,150,000 "others" disagree as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 16, 2021, 01:40:09 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/BWBQPNH.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on March 16, 2021, 01:45:14 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 16, 2021, 01:28:38 PM
535,000 Americans disagree
2,150,000 "others" disagree as well.

As I said, I only think we spread out the area under the curve.  We did not change the area.  What we did was destroy other people's lives and livelihoods along with those you cite. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 16, 2021, 01:46:01 PM
The US had just under 2.9 million deaths to all causes in 2019.  This is a very predictable figure, it rises a bit each year predictably.

We're going to see a large jump in 2020 of about 300,000 to about 3.2 million from COVID that really started only in March/April.

So, yes, nearly 3 million die "normally" and only a tenth as many died of/with COVID, but it a significant jump.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 16, 2021, 01:46:15 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on March 16, 2021, 01:45:14 PM
As I said, I only think we spread out the area under the curve.  We did not change the area.  What we did was destroy other people's lives and livelihoods along with those you cite.
Agree.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 16, 2021, 01:46:44 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on March 16, 2021, 01:45:14 PM
As I said, I only think we spread out the area under the curve.  We did not change the area.  What we did was destroy other people's lives and livelihoods along with those you cite.
I think there is some validity in spreading it out, e.g., to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 16, 2021, 02:23:56 PM
and also, one year ago, we didn't know what the effects would be.  To the virus spread or people's lives and livelihoods.  It was worth a shot.

 we all have our opinions regarding if more or less precautions, quarantining, should have been done, early, lately or going forward to try to save hospital beds and caskets.

I'm not sure anyone will ever know if they were right or wrong
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 16, 2021, 02:30:25 PM
The nursing home thing is staggering. 175K deaths from that source alone.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 16, 2021, 02:32:22 PM
some of us might be correct in thinking long term care facilities for the elderly should have been more protected
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 16, 2021, 03:01:24 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 16, 2021, 02:23:56 PM
and also, one year ago, we didn't know what the effects would be.  To the virus spread or people's lives and livelihoods.  It was worth a shot.
BTW we still don't know what the effects will be to those who survived the virus. There are a lot of people reporting significant lingering effects. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 16, 2021, 03:05:25 PM
yes, and hindsight isn't 20/20 either
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 16, 2021, 10:10:31 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on March 16, 2021, 12:16:06 PM
Maybe I should start listening to him but then again I keep seeing thousands of people immigrate from China to the United States but almost nothing the other way???
Maybe Drew can take a hiatus from cutting boards and build him a boat.I'm sure we could come up with an impressive number for his Bon Voyage Bash :D  I kill me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on March 17, 2021, 08:36:26 AM
Ohio expands vaccinations to all over 40 now and everyone over 16 by end of March
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 17, 2021, 09:11:52 AM
Number Two for me tomorrow, Pfizer.

We're finally getting enough vaccine here apparently.

I do wonder how many will not get it out of fear.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 17, 2021, 02:40:18 PM
The progress of the COVID-19 epidemic in Sweden: an update | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2021/02/18/the-progress-of-the-covid-19-epidemic-in-sweden-an-update/#more-27088)

Bottom line, Sweden ended up better than the UK without lock downs.

As we've discussed, such comparisons involved a LOT of other variables.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 17, 2021, 03:30:01 PM
Wisconsin seems to have this thing close to done.

(https://i.imgur.com/RcZQiQo.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/EqNCmNe.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 17, 2021, 03:47:43 PM
As numerous new strains explore the globe and haven't hit WI yet.
:Face palm:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 17, 2021, 03:57:58 PM
variants

no new strains discovered at this time
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 17, 2021, 10:54:51 PM
I hope so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2021, 07:34:18 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 17, 2021, 10:54:51 PM
I hope so.
We know so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2021, 08:20:13 AM
The information on the left is encouraging. To me it indicates that the treatments are becoming more and more effective - or - the new variants aren't as severe??

(https://i.imgur.com/TEC6Oiw.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on March 18, 2021, 08:54:24 AM
The Mrs. and I got jabbed yesterday with Round 1 of Moderna. Very, very relieved.

Sometime today, we're going to find out of she had COVID last January. From what I've read, those who have had COVID are going to feel like pond scum from 24 to 48 hours after the shot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 18, 2021, 11:36:29 AM
Got shot 2 this AM, Pfizer.  Feel ok.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 18, 2021, 11:42:23 AM
Hopefully you can say the same in 12-24 hours.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 18, 2021, 03:22:49 PM
Six and a half hours later and I have this urge to speak French, badly ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2021, 03:26:43 PM
So, you are feeling shitty?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 18, 2021, 04:15:10 PM
Nope.  A bit tired.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on March 18, 2021, 04:27:19 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 18, 2021, 03:22:49 PM
Six and a half hours later and I have this urge to speak French, badly ...
So are you speaking French badly?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 18, 2021, 05:07:29 PM
Wee.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 18, 2021, 05:13:00 PM
You're making me think of the movie French Kiss....when Meg Ryan was looking her very best.  Today, she looks like a cartoon character.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on March 18, 2021, 05:24:26 PM
I did pretty well with my second shot. A little rundown but that was it. 

I was at the gym just a few minutes ago and there was a vaccine clinic across the street at a community center. They came to the gym and announced to everyone that they had shots available to anyone who wanted them. Two young guys who probably weren’t drinking age yet and a dude who was probably in his 30s ran over and got theirs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2021, 05:33:17 AM
I feel normal this morning. Taking step son to airport soon,
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 19, 2021, 05:41:42 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 19, 2021, 05:33:17 AM
I feel normal this morning. Taking step son to airport soon,
C’est une excellente nouvelle!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on March 19, 2021, 06:36:15 AM
Some signs that the decline in cases is flattening.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2021, 08:21:43 AM
Our daughter says the greater Paris area is shut down again for a month, except schools.  She lives about 50 miles southwest and is in the area.

Sweden is picking up again as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on March 19, 2021, 08:56:40 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 19, 2021, 08:21:43 AM
Our daughter says the greater Paris area is shut down again for a month, except schools.  She lives about 50 miles southwest and is in the area.

Sweden is picking up again as well.
MDH tried to get youth sports in Carver County to stop for two weeks after a surge in cases of the British strain were all tied to youth sports. It was mostly shrugged off.

COVID is making a mess out of the winter sports playoffs. Several hockey teams have already had their season abruptly ended. A few others sent out their JV teams, who hadn't been exposed, in an attempt to survive long enough to cook off quarantines for the varsity. Mixed results. One JV squad won 4-0 in a pigtail game, but it went badly for several others. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 19, 2021, 09:55:37 AM
The short-term, middle-term, and long-term future of the coronavirus

When experts envision the future of the coronavirus, many predict that it will become a seasonal pathogen that won’t be much more than a nuisance for most of us who have been vaccinated or previously exposed to it. But how long will that process take — and how much damage will the virus inflict in the interim?

https://www.statnews.com/2021/03/04/the-short-term-middle-term-and-long-term-future-of-the-coronavirus/ (https://www.statnews.com/2021/03/04/the-short-term-middle-term-and-long-term-future-of-the-coronavirus/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 19, 2021, 10:46:57 AM
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/162229644_10225341436389983_6951676518182885475_n.jpg?_nc_cat=110&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=BVQfBiy0gDIAX9-LkFI&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=e1ba3535ad617b869a42cb33f2f8cbec&oe=607AD8B6)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2021, 12:35:16 PM
Shipments of vaccine have slowed down for Florida in the past month. Very concerning here now. Got off to a really good start and now.. not so much. We need more here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 19, 2021, 12:51:45 PM
Red states are going to have to suffer

oops, was that political?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 19, 2021, 01:37:26 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2021, 12:35:16 PM
Shipments of vaccine have slowed down for Florida in the past month. Very concerning here now. Got off to a really good start and now.. not so much. We need more here.
dont worry the potted plant is on it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SFBadger96 on March 19, 2021, 03:10:56 PM
Our discussion of the use of "China Virus" still bugs me. 

The piece linked below was written by a high school classmate and friend of mine. Maybe they aren't related. I think they are. You have to make your own decisions.

https://techsavvymama.com/2021/03/6-things-you-can-do-to-stop-asian-hate.html?fbclid=IwAR2LQgi95VlPPtKSi9S7lBCkeKMSS4N1iwI0j4JVqMFO-I5R2S7jux7voII
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 19, 2021, 03:21:10 PM
Quote from: SFBadger96 on March 19, 2021, 03:10:56 PM
Our discussion of the use of "China Virus" still bugs me.

The piece linked below was written by a high school classmate and friend of mine. Maybe they aren't related. I think they are. You have to make your own decisions.

https://techsavvymama.com/2021/03/6-things-you-can-do-to-stop-asian-hate.html?fbclid=IwAR2LQgi95VlPPtKSi9S7lBCkeKMSS4N1iwI0j4JVqMFO-I5R2S7jux7voII
I would respond to this except this is not the proper thread to have this discussion

so move it to the In Other News thread
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2021, 06:00:33 PM
I feel "normal" (for me) now.  I'm having a G&T, didn't drink anything but water yesterday.  It's like your immune system announces to the body:

"Hey, boys, I need your attention here, gonna have to draw on some reserves, y'all might be feeling a bit tired for a bit.  Some kind of strange in the works."

I think that is Good News, in effect.  If I see the real thing, Immune System will say:

"Heh, I know this  trick.  Saddle up boys, time to lasso some virii."

Shirely, "we" have to be exploring this technique for other vaccines.  I wonder if in five years we'll be getting shots galore.  My doc said I should get a pneumonia shot annually now, as well as flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 20, 2021, 09:33:09 AM
maybe they can improve the shingles vaccine before I get it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2021, 09:47:58 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 20, 2021, 09:33:09 AM
maybe they can improve the shingles vaccine before I get it
Yeah, I reacted to that one hard.  This one made me tired for 12 hours, that was it, no arm soreness at all, no fever, no nothing worth mentioning.

I could tell my body reacted to it, felt like not having enough sleep sort of, but I had a hard time sleeping during the day.  I just lay in bed reading.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 20, 2021, 10:25:00 AM
I never had chicken pox. Does this mean I don't need the shot, or should I get it??

I'm 54.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2021, 10:55:00 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 20, 2021, 10:25:00 AM
I never had chicken pox. Does this mean I don't need the shot, or should I get it??

I'm 54.

They advise it over 60 as I recall.  I would ask an MD that question.  I had a brief but severe reaction to Shot 2, violent chills, my teeth were chattering.  The wife gave my Tylenol and it stopped quickly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 20, 2021, 11:26:15 AM
my brother is 55 got his shingles shot a month ago

he felt crappy for about 20 hours

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 20, 2021, 11:30:12 AM
I think it's now recommended at 50.

If you've never had chicken pox, you don't have the varicella virus in your system, which means you can't get shingles... But it also means you're susceptible to a chicken pox infection as you have no immunity.

Agree you should ask your doctor...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2021, 11:40:26 AM
From what I read about shingles, the two shots are vastly to be preferred over the illness, even with some side effects.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on March 20, 2021, 06:24:43 PM
This being Indiana, they had a giant big screen with the tournament games on in the auditorium post dose for your waiting period..   Next best thing to getting the shot in gasoline alley at the speedway I guess. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 20, 2021, 09:17:19 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 20, 2021, 11:40:26 AM
From what I read about shingles, the two shots are vastly to be preferred over the illness, even with some side effects.


Hopefully, that's true of EVERY medicine, ever.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 21, 2021, 10:14:44 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 20, 2021, 09:17:19 PM
Hopefully, that's true of EVERY medicine, ever.

Medicine?  Probably not, certainly not "ever".  Some medicines back in the day were pretty awful, like mercury for syphilis.

Vaccines?  That depends on other factors I think.  We don't get every vaccine known to man obviously, for good reason.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 22, 2021, 07:53:52 AM
Good news: Florida says persons 50 and older can now receive vaccine 

Bad news: a “federal directive” requiring only those involved in education are priority- so none of the websites will allow you to register if you are not in education.  

I have no issues with that although it’s a shame non of the local tv and radio disclosed it.  They just say if your 50 or over you can sign up- which is false.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on March 22, 2021, 08:18:50 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on March 22, 2021, 07:53:52 AM
Good news: Florida says persons 50 and older can now receive vaccine

Bad news: a “federal directive” requiring only those involved in education are priority- so none of the websites will allow you to register if you are not in education. 

I have no issues with that although it’s a shame non of the local tv and radio disclosed it.  They just say if your 50 or over you can sign up- which is false. 
In Ohio anyone 40 and up can get signed up right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 22, 2021, 08:26:02 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on March 22, 2021, 07:53:52 AM
Good news: Florida says persons 50 and older can now receive vaccine

Bad news: a “federal directive” requiring only those involved in education are priority- so none of the websites will allow you to register if you are not in education. 

I have no issues with that although it’s a shame non of the local tv and radio disclosed it.  They just say if your 50 or over you can sign up- which is false. 
It's a product of the older population here. Most everyone I know has been vaccinated. Those who have not been are all under 60.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 22, 2021, 08:51:13 AM
Still 50+ here so I don't yet qualify to sign up.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 22, 2021, 08:59:54 AM
Out to lunch yesterday, our server, a rather cute late 20s gal, mentioned she'd had COVID.  I later asked her how bad it was, and she said bad, it was a year ago and the docs misdiagnosed it as Strep, which she knew was wrong.  She went back a few days later still very sick and they knew what it was.  She said it took her two weeks to recover most of the way.  My son had a similar illness, so it does hit younger folks hard at times.

It could be some early variant was harder on younger folks, not sure about that at all.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 22, 2021, 09:29:49 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 21, 2021, 10:14:44 AM
Medicine?  Probably not, certainly not "ever".  Some medicines back in the day were pretty awful, like mercury for syphilis.
I had read or saw on a program that Lincoln in the last year of his life was treated with mercury but it wasn't for that.I can't imagine the side effects - a bullet might have been merciful
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 22, 2021, 09:33:46 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 22, 2021, 09:29:49 AM
I had read or saw on a program that Lincoln in the last year of his life was treated with mercury but it wasn't for that.I can't imagine the side effects - a bullet might have been merciful

Abe Lincoln and THIS guy, ever seen the two together?


(https://i.imgur.com/aB9RmUu.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 22, 2021, 09:54:00 AM
Who/what the hell is that?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 22, 2021, 10:02:35 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 22, 2021, 09:54:00 AM
Who/what the hell is that?
looks like Dr Fauci
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 22, 2021, 10:03:08 AM
Ha!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on March 22, 2021, 10:22:00 AM
Mrs. GR had no reactions to the first shot other than a sore arm for two days, so it appears that she did NOT have COVID last January. We are very much looking forward to April 28, which is 2nd shot +14 days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 22, 2021, 11:44:45 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on March 22, 2021, 10:22:00 AM
Mrs. GR had no reactions to the first shot other than a sore arm for two days, so it appears that she did NOT have COVID last January. We are very much looking forward to April 28, which is 2nd shot +14 days.
Great

Please let us know after the 2nd shot

Im very interested in people's experiences with side effects
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 22, 2021, 12:12:07 PM
The wife and neighbor had none, or close to it, I was tired for 12 hours or so after each, all three Pfizers.

I have not spoken with anyone yet who had much of a side effect (beyond a desire to speak French coupled with an inability).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 22, 2021, 12:20:00 PM
My wife had no real side effects to either shot1 or shot2, just a little soreness at the injection site.  Moderna FTR.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 22, 2021, 12:32:12 PM
It's been a year since I had Covid. It will be interesting to see how my body reacts to it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 22, 2021, 12:58:46 PM
Third Covid wave hits Europe, France, Germany eye more lockdowns (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/22/third-covid-wave-hits-europe-france-germany-eye-more-lockdowns.html)

A month-long partial lockdown was reintroduced in Paris Saturday, as well as in 15 other regions in France, in an effort to get on top of rising case numbers, largely attributed to new, more infectious Covid variants.

The latest partial lockdown is less stringent than previous ones (https://www.france24.com/en/france/20210320-inter-regional-travel-prohibited-schools-remain-open-france-s-new-partial-lockdown-rules), however, prompting some to question the point of such a move, while others have said that the new measures are confusing. A curfew is still in place and inter-regional travel remains effectively banned. Around 21 million people in France are affected by the new rules.


My step daughter returned home last week to come under this where they live.  I find it ironic that Europeans are more vaccine resistant than Americans, according to polls, Poles especially.

Some folks admire Europe and think it better than the US (which is true in some ways in  my opinion).

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 22, 2021, 01:11:34 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 22, 2021, 12:58:46 PM
Third Covid wave hits Europe, France, Germany eye more lockdowns (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/22/third-covid-wave-hits-europe-france-germany-eye-more-lockdowns.html)

A month-long partial lockdown was reintroduced in Paris Saturday, as well as in 15 other regions in France, in an effort to get on top of rising case numbers, largely attributed to new, more infectious Covid variants.

The latest partial lockdown is less stringent than previous ones (https://www.france24.com/en/france/20210320-inter-regional-travel-prohibited-schools-remain-open-france-s-new-partial-lockdown-rules), however, prompting some to question the point of such a move, while others have said that the new measures are confusing. A curfew is still in place and inter-regional travel remains effectively banned. Around 21 million people in France are affected by the new rules.


My step daughter returned home last week to come under this where they live.  I find it ironic that Europeans are more vaccine resistant than Americans, according to polls, Poles especially.

Some folks admire Europe and think it better than the US (which is true in some ways in  my opinion).



There are definitely things I like in Europe more than in the USA.  French wine for example.

What I always find amusing, though, is the Americans that believe Europeans are somehow smarter or more enlightened or less racist than Americans.  That's an odd idealization of a region, and in my experience it's always coming from people that have never actually spent any significant amount of time in Europe. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 22, 2021, 01:27:28 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 22, 2021, 01:11:34 PM
There are definitely things I like in Europe more than in the USA.  French wine for example.

What I always find amusing, though, is the Americans that believe Europeans are somehow smarter or more enlightened or less racist than Americans.  That's an odd idealization of a region, and in my experience it's always coming from people that have never actually spent any significant amount of time in Europe.
Theres lots of French folks that feel that way too
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 22, 2021, 01:35:46 PM
Not to be political, in in general, liberals admire how Europe does things and wants to emulate how they think Europe does stuff.  Vis a vis COVID, there is a "theme" that the US really screwed up badly and Europe did it right.  As usual, I think a lot of this comes from "Form the conclusion and then seek data to confirm it (and ignore the rest)."

We've discussed the various differences between the US and Europe.  Most of Europe is less federalized than is the US system of government.  The FrenchK-12 schools are all nationally run, not locally.  Their President has a lot more power than ours.  There was dispute here about how much a President COULD do beyond give advice.

A lot of "us" view the world through a partisan lens, which in my view is ultimately dangerous.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 22, 2021, 02:56:29 PM
How many of the US population will need at least 1 vaccination for herd immunity to start having a major roll
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 22, 2021, 03:03:25 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 22, 2021, 02:56:29 PM
How many of the US population will need at least 1 vaccination for herd immunity to start having a major roll

About tree fiddy
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 22, 2021, 03:06:32 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 22, 2021, 02:56:29 PM
How many of the US population will need at least 1 vaccination for herd immunity to start having a major roll
I've seen estimates that at around 40% is starts to make a dent.  Combined with "natural resistance", we're near that today I think.  We've mostly vaccinated the elderly who aren't "out and about" at Spring Break as much as the youth though.

The first Pfizer shot evidently gets you to about 70% in a week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 22, 2021, 03:50:40 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 22, 2021, 03:06:32 PM
I've seen estimates that at around 40% is starts to make a dent.  Combined with "natural resistance", we're near that today I think.  We've mostly vaccinated the elderly who aren't "out and about" at Spring Break as much as the youth though.

The first Pfizer shot evidently gets you to about 70% in a week.
so lets be conservative and say 60% of total US population Im estimating at 355,000,000

this translates into 213,00,000

The current number of people in the US with at least 1 shot is 80,000,000

leaving 133,000,000 before herd immunity is a major factor 

If we are vaccinating 2 to 3 million people per day it will be reached in aprox 65 days

or by May 26

anyway IMHO
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 22, 2021, 03:59:21 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 22, 2021, 03:50:40 PM
so lets be conservative and say 60% of total US population Im estimating at 355,000,000

this translates into 213,00,000

The current number of people in the US with at least 1 shot is 80,000,000

leaving 133,000,000 before herd immunity is a major factor

If we are vaccinating 2 to 3 million people per day it will be reached in aprox 65 days

or by May 26

anyway IMHO

It doesn't look like you're including the people who have already had it and recovered, who should also be contributing to herd immunity.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 22, 2021, 04:15:51 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 22, 2021, 03:59:21 PM
It doesn't look like you're including the people who have already had it and recovered, who should also be contributing to herd immunity.


right and I also dont know that true number and I also dont know how many recovered have also been vaccinated

so if your argument is that my number might be high or the herd immunity day might be sooner

I agree my number is conservative because as an accountant in another life thats my nature
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on March 22, 2021, 04:16:03 PM
I had Pfizer shot on Saturday.   My arm wasn't as sore as it would be for a tetanus shot or even a flu vaccine.    Haven't noticed anything else.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 22, 2021, 04:20:08 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 22, 2021, 04:15:51 PM
right and I also dont know that true number and I also dont know how many recovered have also been vaccinated

so if your argument is that my number might be high or the herd immunity day might be sooner

I agree my number is conservative because as an accountant in another life thats my nature
3-5 X the reported number of cases. We're getting there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 22, 2021, 04:25:58 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 22, 2021, 04:20:08 PM
3-5 X the reported number of cases. We're getting there.
3-5x?

I'm pretty sure every American has already had it.

Twice.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 22, 2021, 04:36:35 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 22, 2021, 04:15:51 PM
right and I also dont know that true number and I also dont know how many recovered have also been vaccinated

so if your argument is that my number might be high or the herd immunity day might be sooner

I agree my number is conservative because as an accountant in another life thats my nature
While nobody knows the true number, I've been trying to watch the stories on this one and as far as I can tell, the number is coalescing somewhere around 3x of confirmed cases.

So about 100M nationally have had it--estimated.

There's some overlap of course with those who are now vaccinated.

I know I've not been much of an optimist, but I think the corner is just about turned. 45-60 days and we'll be back to something pretty darn close to normal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 22, 2021, 04:48:47 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 22, 2021, 04:25:58 PM
3-5x?

I'm pretty sure every American has already had it.

Twice.


Seems to me we have an effective vaccine too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 22, 2021, 04:53:34 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 22, 2021, 04:48:47 PM
Seems to me we have an effective vaccine too.

Looks promising, but we won't know for at least another year (and likely more) if it's actually effective.

I was always considering mutations when I formed my opinion and made my assertions.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 22, 2021, 04:54:15 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 22, 2021, 04:36:35 PM
While nobody knows the true number, I've been trying to watch the stories on this one and as far as I can tell, the number is coalescing somewhere around 3x of confirmed cases.

So about 100M nationally have had it--estimated.

There's some overlap of course with those who are now vaccinated.

I know I've not been much of an optimist, but I think the corner is just about turned. 45-60 days and we'll be back to something pretty darn close to normal.
now if we can just get the rest of the world vaccinated
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on March 23, 2021, 09:15:37 AM
If there was any doubt that my FIL had COVID, it evaporated yesterday. He got Moderna 1 on Sunday, and yesterday he felt like he went the distance with Mike Tyson in his prime.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 23, 2021, 09:16:44 AM
I don't think those are related - I never had it (confirmed) and I felt just fine after both the 1st and 2nd shots.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on March 23, 2021, 10:12:39 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 23, 2021, 09:16:44 AM
I don't think those are related - I never had it (confirmed) and I felt just fine after both the 1st and 2nd shots.
One thing I've read in a lot of places is that those who have had COVID and are now being vaccinated tend to feel terrible after the 1st shot. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 23, 2021, 10:13:45 AM
I think I misread your post.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2021, 10:26:23 AM
I hear a LOT of unsubstantiated "sayings" about the vaccine these days, I cannot verify any of the ones I hear, one is the Moderna gives more side effects than Pfizer, and another is that folks who had COVID have worse side effects than those who have not.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on March 23, 2021, 10:49:54 AM
Vaccine hearsay about as reliable as Yelp in my view.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 23, 2021, 10:52:45 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 23, 2021, 10:26:23 AM
I hear a LOT of unsubstantiated "sayings" about the vaccine these days, I cannot verify any of the ones I hear, one is the Moderna gives more side effects than Pfizer, and another is that folks who had COVID have worse side effects than those who have not.


I actually heard the opposite, that Pfizer had worse side effects.  So, that shows us how reliable hearsay is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2021, 11:19:20 AM
Covid: Pfizer begins early stage clinical trial testing oral antiviral drug (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/23/covid-pfizer-begins-early-stage-clinical-trial-testing-oral-antiviral-drug.html)

Wow, this is a treatment for, not a vaccine obviously.

Is it reasonable to HOPE these new approaches signal a new arsenal of treatments for other viruses/virii?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 23, 2021, 11:35:59 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on March 23, 2021, 10:12:39 AM
One thing I've read in a lot of places is that those who have had COVID and are now being vaccinated tend to feel terrible after the 1st shot.
This is at least plausible...

One of the reasons that a lot of people have more side effects from the second shot, I assume, is that the first shot wakes up your immune system to recognize the spike protein, but it can't go into overdrive. The second shot, since your immune system had its first lesson 3-4 weeks ago, is when the immune system goes into overdrive. And it's the effect of your immune system FIGHTING the spike protein that causes the side effects.

So... If your immune system already recognizes the spike protein from natural infection, it might to into overdrive on the first shot. Hence worse side effects. 

However, as far as I know it's still just "hearsay". 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 23, 2021, 11:39:02 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 23, 2021, 11:35:59 AM
This is at least plausible...

One of the reasons that a lot of people have more side effects from the second shot, I assume, is that the first shot wakes up your immune system to recognize the spike protein, but it can't go into overdrive. The second shot, since your immune system had its first lesson 3-4 weeks ago, is when the immune system goes into overdrive. And it's the effect of your immune system FIGHTING the spike protein that causes the side effects.

So... If your immune system already recognizes the spike protein from natural infection, it might to into overdrive on the first shot. Hence worse side effects.

However, as far as I know it's still just "hearsay".

Yes this theory has been my assumption, based on the anecdotal evidence I've heard.

But of course there's enough variation in body chemistry, pain tolerance, etc.-- that it's hard to draw any really reliable conclusions.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2021, 11:47:49 AM
It's very possible, and has some logical basis, but I have found no FACTUAL data based evidence for it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2021, 12:20:41 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/TIyEk4g.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 23, 2021, 12:48:59 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 23, 2021, 12:20:41 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/TIyEk4g.jpg)
😂😂😂😂.   That was great.  Thanks for the laugh CD
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 23, 2021, 12:54:44 PM
Did you get Fearless permission to post his photo
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 23, 2021, 03:21:01 PM
minus the necklace chains and that's me!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 23, 2021, 03:39:16 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 23, 2021, 03:21:01 PM
minus the necklace chains and that's me!
whats wrong with a little bling
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 23, 2021, 04:39:29 PM
nothing if you like it or need it

I'm not a fan of shiny things that cost money

unless they are automobiles or something useful, like golf clubs
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 23, 2021, 05:02:44 PM
Hi 847badgerfan,

You are confirmed for your COVID-19 Vaccination Appointment on Wednesday, March 24, 2021 at 11:00am (Eastern Time - US & Canada).

COVID-19 Vaccination: First Dose


Vaccine Manufacturer: Moderna


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 23, 2021, 05:16:35 PM
Coolio, oldtimer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 23, 2021, 05:57:49 PM
I've heard a rumor that by 3/31, the state of Texas will open up signups to all adults.  Currently it's limited to 50+, or those with health conditions, or healthcare workers and the like.

So I might be able to sign up  a week from now.  That would be cool.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2021, 06:09:03 PM
I think we're close to all comers here, I see signs on the freeways advising that mass vaccination centers are now open.  I infer that means they are getting enough vaccine to justify using the MB stadium now.

My daughter in C-bus got signed up on 3/30 and she's 32.  I think.  She's joining us in DC the day after.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 23, 2021, 06:17:53 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 23, 2021, 06:09:03 PM
I think we're close to all comers here, I see signs on the freeways advising that mass vaccination centers are now open.  I infer that means they are getting enough vaccine to justify using the MB stadium now.

My daughter in C-bus got signed up on 3/30 and she's 32.  I think.  She's joining us in DC the day after.
Yeah there's not a list that will accept me yet (without lying about a non-existent underlying condition or something).

I'm happy to wait my turn.  As I said before, I expect I'll be among the last to get the vaccine, excluding anti-vaxers of course.  I know people that are driving all over town or waiting in long lines, that's not something I have any interest in doing.  When it's easy to sign up, and I can walk in and out within 10-15 minutes like I do for a flu shot, that's when I'll get it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2021, 06:23:09 PM
Yeah, I'd be doing the same, but I'm old.  I get a gubmint check once a month now.  It's a decent sum actually.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 24, 2021, 12:22:34 AM
So I guess it's official, Texas opening vaccine to all adults regardless of age or health status, and on 3/29 not 3/31.

https://www.dshs.texas.gov/news/releases/2021/20210323.aspx

Good news and movement in the correct direction.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 24, 2021, 08:36:12 AM
hopefully, Iowa is getting close to that

I hear rumors
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 24, 2021, 10:14:37 AM
Quote from: utee94 on March 24, 2021, 12:22:34 AM
So I guess it's official, Texas opening vaccine to all adults regardless of age or health status, and on 3/29 not 3/31.

https://www.dshs.texas.gov/news/releases/2021/20210323.aspx

Good news and movement in the correct direction.



this is great but I question if Texas has enough vaccine to do that unless of course a big shipment is coming in the next 2 weeks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2021, 10:18:18 AM
If a state opens up vaccines, it's doesn't mean they have enough for all right now, it means they think the priority folks are already "done".  You still have to get an appointment, and they could be weeks off if you try, or not available at all.

You don't really want a mass shipment of vaccine needing special storage capacities.  But if everyone vulnerable is vaccinated, you can start on the rest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 24, 2021, 10:24:59 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 24, 2021, 10:18:18 AM
If a state opens up vaccines, it's doesn't mean they have enough for all right now, it means they think the priority folks are already "done".  You still have to get an appointment, and they could be weeks off if you try, or not available at all.

You don't really want a mass shipment of vaccine needing special storage capacities.  But if everyone vulnerable is vaccinated, you can start on the rest.
With Houston, San Antonio, Dallas and Austin Im sure Texas can handle a large shipment of vaccine assuming it all doesnt go to one place

but again it appears to be a good news bad news story

good news vaccine given to all

bad news no vaccine right now so ya gotta wait
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 24, 2021, 10:28:47 AM
I'm ok with pushing the good news at this point
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 24, 2021, 10:37:52 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 24, 2021, 10:24:59 AM
With Houston, San Antonio, Dallas and Austin Im sure Texas can handle a large shipment of vaccine assuming it all doesnt go to one place

but again it appears to be a good news bad news story

good news vaccine given to all

bad news no vaccine right now so ya gotta wait
Yeah I wasn't trying to imply that the vaccine would be widely available, only that they're going to lift the restrictions on who can sign up for it, starting on 3/29.

To be clear, to date, there has not been a list I could even put my name on, because I don't meet any of the requirements for age, job, or underlying health conditions.  I'm not sure that all of the people that HAVE qualified, based on age or job or underlying health conditions, understand this-- most of the state's population hasn't been allowed to even make it past the splash page for vaccination signup,  to this point.  Because we don't meet the requirements outlined in groups 1A, 1B, or 1C.

But now they're getting very close to treating all of the 1A/1B/1C (who are willing to get the shot), and so they're going to open it up to the rest of the population that hasn't been eligible thus far.  I'd expect it to still be many weeks beyond that, before I'd be able to get stuck.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 24, 2021, 10:44:08 AM
open it up, get as many needles in arms as possible

make sure the vaccine doses are used instead of limiting to some group that may have some hesitant to get the vaccine and have it go to waste
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 24, 2021, 10:46:53 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 24, 2021, 10:44:08 AM
open it up, get as many needles in arms as possible

make sure the vaccine doses are used instead of limiting to some group that may have some hesitant to get the vaccine and have it go to waste
That's the plan here, now.  Still need more product and wider distribution.

Also the % splits have been wonky, far more distributed by population% to the rural areas of West Texas, and less to the major metros of Austin, SA, Dallas, and Houston.  I'm not sure what's going on there, my guess would be intra-state politicking or something, but I haven't delved into it very deeply since I'm not overly concerned about getting the shot in the first place.

We're planning a trip to Mexico in July, so I'd prefer to be fully vaccinated by mid June.  That's about all there is to my timetable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 24, 2021, 10:48:32 AM
open up Jerry World and run 10,000 per day through that place
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 24, 2021, 10:50:57 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 24, 2021, 10:48:32 AM
open up Jerry World and run 10,000 per day through that place
They could, but it's in the middle of nowhere.  Highly inconvenient to both Dallas and Fort Worth.  I sure as heck wouldn't drive three hours roundtrip out of my way, through DFW traffic, plus whatever the wait time is in queue, to get the shot.

We'll see the numbers really pick up when it's easy to schedule at your nearby pharmacy or doctor's office, same as a flu shot.  That's what I'm waiting for.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 24, 2021, 11:01:57 AM
it's not THAT hard to get to from Dallas or Fort Worth

those goofy Cowgirls fans make the trip on Sundays
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2021, 11:02:53 AM
Atlanta COVID-19 vaccine appointments now open at Mercedes-Benz Stadium (ajc.com) (https://www.ajc.com/news/thousands-of-covid-19-vaccine-appointment-slots-open-at-mercedes-benz-stadium/TJRKPOFPK5F63AKOR5H3VSZOBY/)

6,000 per day right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 24, 2021, 11:10:42 AM
hopefully it's not Highly inconvenient to get there and they hit their mark of 6,000 per day
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2021, 11:20:34 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 24, 2021, 11:10:42 AM
hopefully it's not Highly inconvenient to get there and they hit their mark of 6,000 per day
It's right between two MARTA stations and they have free parking as well.  You can easily walk there from "downtown", or Georgia Tech, that would be a two mile stroll.

It's about as easy to get to as anywhere around here.  I think they will surpass 6,000 once vaccine is readily available and they have enough shooters.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 24, 2021, 11:24:47 AM
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/p180x540/162957152_10159327907712299_7220534788815654555_n.jpg?_nc_cat=1&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=KchPbJqnkYgAX_8GNqV&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&tp=6&oh=6baca0689fee7b8c2183ce826173145a&oe=607F88F6)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 24, 2021, 11:59:36 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 24, 2021, 11:01:57 AM
it's not THAT hard to get to from Dallas or Fort Worth

those goofy Cowgirls fans make the trip on Sundays
You know how I know you've never driven from East Dallas to Arlington on a weekday?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2021, 12:05:43 PM
Dose #1 is in the house. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 24, 2021, 12:14:58 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 24, 2021, 11:59:36 AM
You know how I know you've never driven from East Dallas to Arlington on a weekday?

never been to East Dallas

been to Arlington many times from everywhere but there

and I'd a simple dirt farmer from a town of 250 people w/o a stop light
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 24, 2021, 01:54:10 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3LK1Mt3CZA
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 24, 2021, 02:13:07 PM
Dallas traffic is horrible.  Mostly just plain dangerous.

Came straight thru Dallas from McKinney to Round Rock one afternoon about rush hour

There aught to be a setting in google maps for Safest route

my brother refuses to drive to Dallas from Arlington or Colleyville - well, he will do it for his daughter, but even then he swears a lot
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on March 24, 2021, 02:42:28 PM
If MB is right next to the former Georgia Dome site, it's very easy to get to on MARTA.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2021, 02:48:41 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on March 24, 2021, 02:42:28 PM
If MB is right next to the former Georgia Dome site, it's very easy to get to on MARTA.
Yeah, didn't we take MARTA to that site from where we stayed in Midtown? I think we did and yes it was easy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 24, 2021, 03:01:33 PM
there's a train that connects Dallas and Fort Worth.  Never thought about using it.

unfortunately, it goes north to the airport and doesn't get near Arlington or the stadium which are south of the airport
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on March 24, 2021, 03:20:06 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2021, 02:48:41 PM
Yeah, didn't we take MARTA to that site from where we stayed in Midtown? I think we did and yes it was easy.
Yes, we did. IIRC, the only time I was in a car that weekend was to go with Faith to the liquor store.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2021, 03:22:12 PM
And you walked to scope out bars too? That one joint was a lot of fun. Nice work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2021, 03:31:27 PM
I took MARTA to the SEC CG a few years back, a couple, it worked fine.  I think some of youse stayed in the Marriot about four blocks from me (now), I didn't live here then of course.  I found some pretty good bar/restaurants around, still haven't been down to Cypress St.

MB stadium is next door to where the Georgia Dome once resided.  MB stadium is as tall as a ~30 story building apparently, 305 feet.

Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta Falcons football stadium - Stadiums of Pro Football (https://www.stadiumsofprofootball.com/stadiums/mercedes-benz-stadium/#:~:text=At a height of 305,the north and east ends.)

(https://i.imgur.com/rjgFZLi.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 24, 2021, 03:54:36 PM
architects are gaudy 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2021, 04:40:42 PM
Gaudi was an architect.

(https://i.imgur.com/75a13a3.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2021, 05:21:32 PM
I have his books.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2021, 05:21:43 PM
My arm hurts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 24, 2021, 05:26:15 PM
have the wife stomp on your toe

you'll forget all about your arm
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2021, 05:38:07 PM
She does that every day. I don't feel it. Since the first back surgery where the guy f'd up, I don't have much feeling below the knees.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2021, 07:06:39 PM
Our French  cousins have told us "Do not think of coming over any time soon, it's bad."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 24, 2021, 07:28:34 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/piICJv7.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 25, 2021, 08:39:12 AM
OK, so I feel like I got hit by a truck.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 25, 2021, 08:41:48 AM
better get some rest

I need coffee.  Woke up at 4:30am, didn't get back to sleep until 5:45

alarm at 6:15
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 25, 2021, 08:57:51 AM
We had some hail that woke me up at about 5 AM.  Both cars were in the garage but I'll have to check and see how the roof, and the RV, fared.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 25, 2021, 09:52:07 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 25, 2021, 08:41:48 AM
better get some rest

I need coffee.  Woke up at 4:30am, didn't get back to sleep until 5:45

alarm at 6:15
yep that tee time comes early
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on March 25, 2021, 10:11:26 AM
Today is a multiple-cup-of-coffee day in the GR household as well. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 25, 2021, 10:53:40 AM
I haven't slept well for months. Last night was just normal-level crap, rather than really bad, but I was basically laying awake in bed since 4.

So yeah, it's a multiple-coffee day for me. Gotta run over and drop some samples off at a local customer this morning, maybe hit the driving range on the way back. 

When I finally do get my shot, I'm going to have to work my golf/practice schedule around it in case I get the nasty sore arm thing!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 25, 2021, 11:06:01 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 25, 2021, 10:53:40 AM
I haven't slept well for months. Last night was just normal-level crap, rather than really bad, but I was basically laying awake in bed since 4.

So yeah, it's a multiple-coffee day for me. Gotta run over and drop some samples off at a local customer this morning, maybe hit the driving range on the way back.

When I finally do get my shot, I'm going to have to work my golf/practice schedule around it in case I get the nasty sore arm thing!
white people problems


:)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2021, 11:14:21 AM
I had zero arm pain, nor did the wife.  That appear to be a common side effect.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 26, 2021, 01:54:43 PM
This is an interesting read.

mRNA vaccination boosts cross-variant neutralizing antibodies elicited by SARS-CoV-2 infection | Science (sciencemag.org) (https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/03/24/science.abg9175.full)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 26, 2021, 01:55:59 PM
California will open vaccines to everyone age 16 and older as of Apr 15. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on March 26, 2021, 02:02:23 PM
Minnesota is doing the same starting Tuesday. Expecting a major uptick in dosages received starting next week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 26, 2021, 02:02:27 PM
18 and older in Florida on April 5.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on March 26, 2021, 05:57:02 PM
Indy Motor Speedway gearing up for another massive vaccination weekend. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 28, 2021, 10:14:22 AM
Georgia is open to over 16 Pfizer over 18 Moderna.

DC is crowded, this hotel is packed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 28, 2021, 11:12:59 AM
Wife and I went out for anniversary dinner last night. It's a place with a nice patio, but it's part of the "Irvine Spectrum" complex. That's one of those mega mall / entertainment centers. 

It was more packed than during Christmas shopping season. Masks were 90% or so...

At least with the restaurant, the tables were well spaced and we were in the corner of the patio.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 28, 2021, 11:23:18 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 26, 2021, 02:02:27 PM
18 and older in Florida on April 5.
Not sure why they say that.  I am 59 and tried to register 2 mondays ago when they opened it up.

would only let me “ pre- register” since I am not in the education field, and you could pre- register  from the beginning, so nothing new.  

have not heard a thing since.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 28, 2021, 11:30:32 AM
Also- can’t schedule a vaccination at any local facility/ all are “ fully booked”

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 28, 2021, 12:01:52 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on March 28, 2021, 11:30:32 AM
Also- can’t schedule a vaccination at any local facility/ all are “ fully booked”


actually thats good news

folks are getting their shots
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 28, 2021, 02:14:38 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on March 28, 2021, 11:23:18 AM
Not sure why they say that.  I am 59 and tried to register 2 mondays ago when they opened it up.

would only let me “ pre- register” since I am not in the education field, and you could pre- register  from the beginning, so nothing new. 

have not heard a thing since. 
I'm 54 and not in the education field. My wife is 59 and retired. We both got ours last week.

We did not do it in Lee County, where we live. Went next door to Charlotte County. Several of my friends have done the same.

In other words, try the next county over (North or West - not South).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 28, 2021, 06:43:01 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 25, 2021, 10:53:40 AM
I haven't slept well for months. 
Melatonin seems to sometimes work.Read that Kiwis before bed do the trick also,keep forgetting to pick them up
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on March 28, 2021, 07:07:25 PM
The Mrs. and I didn't get our shots in Ramsey County. We got ours at a Walmart in southern MN.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 28, 2021, 07:11:29 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 28, 2021, 06:43:01 PM
Melatonin seems to sometimes work.Read that Kiwis before bed do the trick also,keep forgetting to pick them up
Melatonin is GREAT if you have trouble falling asleep. Not so great at keeping you asleep if you have trouble like I do waking at 3-4 AM and getting stuck laying awake for hours.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 28, 2021, 11:43:42 PM
Here's a wild idea

lets give priority vaccinations to all pro and college athletes and coaches maybe even high school

this could be justified by realizing its for the mental health of the country

same thing could be said about actors and anybody that performs for the public

anyway just a thought
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 29, 2021, 07:21:46 AM
I think it is about open to all above 16 now most places.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 29, 2021, 10:12:40 AM
I could find a shot in a neighboring county if I tried, or I could just be a little dishonest about my health or lack thereof 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 29, 2021, 10:56:03 AM
I went ahead and signed up with the city and county.  But from what I hear, those waiting lists are a dead end and you have to actively search on a daily basis to find available appointments, and even then those might be the next county over.

That's not worth my time.  My only real deadline is I want to be fully vaccinated + 2 weeks by the middle of July.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on March 29, 2021, 11:32:02 AM
This is probably the third time I've thought we were through with the will of Covid rises, this time by reasoning of the vaccination rollout and possible herd immunity. But here we go again, cases and deaths on the rise in several key markets, particularly Brazil. France, Italy, Germany, Russia too. Iran and particularly India are experiencing surges again. 

Good news is UK cases and deaths are way down, near zero. If what western Europe is re-experiencing in terms of another wave is due to the UK-variant, then hopefully that takes care of it. Not sure what to say about India or Brazil. 

Here in the U.S. it's not so much that we're hitting surges again, it's more that the case/death rate in places like New York, New Jersey, and LA County linger on as flatlines that only very gradually drop. 

However, what's going on in Michigan?

(https://i.imgur.com/AMOg7CS.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 29, 2021, 11:36:26 AM
That's a good question. What *is* going on in Michigan? 

I know we've got some UM fans here, but not sure if we actually have any posters who still live in the state that might have local info.

Looks like the 7-day MA for cases nationally is trending upwards, but Michigan may be accounting for a huge portion of that...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 29, 2021, 11:38:59 AM
This weekend has reminded me how much I really don't like people and crowds. 

The thing that is going to kill me the rest of the year is that SO many people have spent the last year just absolutely jonesin' for travel and events, which means that travel costs are going to be through the roof and EVERYWHERE will be crowded. 

I might end up hating that even more than lockdown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 29, 2021, 11:43:21 AM
Vaccine rollouts in most of the rest of the world--Europe included-- are far, far behind the USA.  That might explain some of it.

Not sure about Michigan and some of the other states that are either increasing or not dropping, though.  Warmer weather in the south maybe helping those states out, a bit?

I've heard folks speculate that the month of March might represent the largest temperature delta from northern states, to southern states, that we see through all of winter/spring/summer.  So that might be contributing as well.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 29, 2021, 12:00:08 PM
cases here aren't dropping as fast as we'd like, but hospitalizations are down dramatically 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 29, 2021, 12:17:16 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 29, 2021, 12:00:08 PM
cases here aren't dropping as fast as we'd like, but hospitalizations are down dramatically
As more people in the older demographics get vaccinated, this is what I expect to see.  Symptoms aren't as severe for younger people so even if the infection rates stay high, the hospitailzation/death numbers should be dropping pretty steadily from here on out.

Israel is one of the few nations that's ahead of us on vaccine rollouts, and that's exactly what they saw occur.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 29, 2021, 12:20:51 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/cUulsFo.png)


(https://i.imgur.com/dYNYT3N.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 29, 2021, 12:22:54 PM
Vaccination Chart

(https://i.imgur.com/2tAl63P.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 29, 2021, 12:25:12 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 29, 2021, 12:17:16 PM
As more people in the older demographics get vaccinated, this is what I expect to see.  Symptoms aren't as severe for younger people so even if the infection rates stay high, the hospitailzation/death numbers should be dropping pretty steadily from here on out.

Israel is one of the few nations that's ahead of us on vaccine rollouts, and that's exactly what they saw occur.
Agreed.

If what I saw this weekend while is any indication, the behavior of people young enough they haven't gotten the vaccine yet is NOT even attempting to avoid infection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 29, 2021, 01:58:59 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 28, 2021, 02:14:38 PM
I'm 54 and not in the education field. My wife is 59 and retired. We both got ours last week.

We did not do it in Lee County, where we live. Went next door to Charlotte County. Several of my friends have done the same.

In other words, try the next county over (North or West - not South).
Well that was good advice. I have to drive two hours north near Orlando to get it but I am scheduled for Friday. Worked out well as I am traveling there on company business that day anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 29, 2021, 05:24:31 PM
Under the category of “ OF Course “

After I searched and found an appointment two hours away, the state of Florida called me just now with an appointment for right here in my local area for Wednesday. Going to take that one since I don’t think there’s much difference between Pfizer and Moderna. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 30, 2021, 08:40:03 AM
Quote from: utee94 on March 29, 2021, 10:56:03 AM
I went ahead and signed up with the city and county.  But from what I hear, those waiting lists are a dead end and you have to actively search on a daily basis to find available appointments, and even then those might be the next county over.

That's not worth my time.  My only real deadline is I want to be fully vaccinated + 2 weeks by the middle of July.


Well I got an email later yesterday afternoon saying that they were releasing 7,000 Moderna 1st shots and a link to sign up if I wanted.  I went ahead and clicked the link and entered my info, and what I didn't realize was, that put me in the queue.  A few hours later my computer beeped, I went to that open browser page, and I was next in line.  I figured I'd be waiting weeks or months, but there was an appointment available at a nearby pharmacy for Thursday at 10 AM, so I guess I'm off to the races.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 30, 2021, 10:12:50 AM
Iowa has opened up for anyone over 18.

I just need to check to see where and when I want to roll up my sleeve
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 30, 2021, 10:32:01 AM
Quote from: utee94 on March 30, 2021, 08:40:03 AM
Well I got an email later yesterday afternoon saying that they were releasing 7,000 Moderna 1st shots and a link to sign up if I wanted.  I went ahead and clicked the link and entered my info, and what I didn't realize was, that put me in the queue.  A few hours later my computer beeped, I went to that open browser page, and I was next in line.  I figured I'd be waiting weeks or months, but there was an appointment available at a nearby pharmacy for Thursday at 10 AM, so I guess I'm off to the races.

we expect a full report
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 30, 2021, 11:30:59 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 30, 2021, 10:32:01 AM
we expect a full report
Sure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 30, 2021, 02:47:52 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on March 29, 2021, 05:24:31 PM
Under the category of “ OF Course “

After I searched and found an appointment two hours away, the state of Florida called me just now with an appointment for right here in my local area for Wednesday. Going to take that one since I don’t think there’s much difference between Pfizer and Moderna.
Just today I got emails from Lee, Sarasota and DeSoto Counties. They all say come on down!!

It won't be long now. We're almost out of the woods. Another few months and bye bye masks. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 30, 2021, 03:19:35 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 30, 2021, 02:47:52 PM
Just today I got emails from Lee, Sarasota and DeSoto Counties. They all say come on down!!

It won't be long now. We're almost out of the woods. Another few months and bye bye masks.
I'd say that here in Texico, it'll be Memorial Day when things really seem to be back to normal.

At that point, anyone that wants the vaccine will have had it, and anyone that doesn't want it will be left to their own devices.

There will still be a few Lockdown Larrys and Mask-up Marvins standing on street corners hollering at everyone that The End is Nigh, but for most folks, normal life will have resumed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 30, 2021, 04:29:38 PM
I don't know how she did it, but my wife got me an appointment for my first one this Saturday afternoon. Woooooo!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 30, 2021, 04:55:52 PM
Giddyup.

Time to grow those 3rd eyes and extra knuckles on your spine!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 30, 2021, 05:10:59 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 30, 2021, 04:55:52 PM
Giddyup.

Time to grow those 3rd eyes and extra knuckles on your spine!
I'd take that if it was on the back of my head.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 30, 2021, 05:33:03 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 30, 2021, 05:10:59 PM
I'd take that if it was on the back of my head.
It'll be on your kneecap.  Still want it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 30, 2021, 05:46:28 PM
Maybe. Depends how short skirts keep getting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on March 30, 2021, 05:48:30 PM
When there are 250k at the Indy500 this May that will be a pretty visible declaration that people are through with it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on March 30, 2021, 05:49:09 PM
I went to the zoo today. Felt like 250K were there too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on March 30, 2021, 09:07:08 PM
A friend of mine got his second shot on Sunday night. His microwave turned on when he yawned.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 30, 2021, 09:14:31 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on March 30, 2021, 09:07:08 PM
A friend of mine got his second shot on Sunday night. His microwave turned on when he yawned.
Is your friend's name Homer
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 30, 2021, 10:00:19 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on March 30, 2021, 09:07:08 PM
A friend of mine got his second shot on Sunday night. His microwave turned on when he yawned.
Dammit Bill, you need to make sure that doesn't happen until 4-6 weeks post-shot! Otherwise people will know they're microchipped!

I swear Gates is losing OpSec in his old age.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on March 31, 2021, 10:45:21 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 29, 2021, 11:38:59 AM
This weekend has reminded me how much I really don't like people and crowds.

The thing that is going to kill me the rest of the year is that SO many people have spent the last year just absolutely jonesin' for travel and events, which means that travel costs are going to be through the roof and EVERYWHERE will be crowded.

I might end up hating that even more than lockdown.


For the past month every outing I've had in San Diego County - downtown, the yacht clubs - has been packed. Bars, beaches, restaurants. Nobody distancing, plenty not wearing masks. Headlines have County officials across Southern California warning of another surge, but you know what? To the crowds running around, it's not that they don't believe in the scientific cautioning of quarantining or flattening the curve. It's that they are no longer interested in following the precautions. They've spent a year succumbing to the mandates and, as far as they see, have paid their dues after being cooped up since our initial economic shutdown this time last year. They've followed and even promoted the masks, distancing, and carry-out only and yet since then half a million Americans died anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 31, 2021, 11:54:05 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on March 31, 2021, 10:45:21 AM

For the past month every outing I've had in San Diego County - downtown, the yacht clubs - has been packed. Bars, beaches, restaurants. Nobody distancing, plenty not wearing masks. Headlines have County officials across Southern California warning of another surge, but you know what? To the crowds running around, it's not that they don't believe in the scientific cautioning of quarantining or flattening the curve. It's that they are no longer interested in following the precautions. They've spent a year succumbing to the mandates and, as far as they see, have paid their dues after being cooped up since our initial economic shutdown this time last year. They've followed and even promoted the masks, distancing, and carry-out only and yet since then half a million Americans died anyway.

Yeah, overall Austin is still pretty masked up and bars and restaurants are still working to keep proximity down, but I'm seeing some evidence of quarantine/mask fatigue.  As you say, it's not that they don't understand or believe in the data behind it, they just don't care anymore.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 31, 2021, 03:21:25 PM
Covid was third leading cause of death in U.S. in 2020, behind heart disease and cancer, CDC says (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/31/covid-was-third-leading-cause-of-death-in-us-in-2020-behind-heart-disease-and-cancer-cdc-says.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 31, 2021, 03:28:58 PM
PARIS (AP) — French President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday announced a three-week nationwide school closure and a month-long domestic travel ban, as the rapid spread of the virus ramped up pressure on hospitals.

In a televised address to the nation, Macron said efforts are needed as “the epidemic is accelerating.”

“We’re going to close nursery, elementary and high schools for three weeks,” he said, adding that a nationwide 7 p.m.- 6 a.m. curfew will be kept in place.

“If we stay united in the coming weeks ... then we will see light at the end of the tunnel,” he said.

Macron said restrictions already applying in the Paris region and others parts of north and eastern France will be extended to the whole country, for at least one month. Under these restrictions, people are allowed to go outside for leisure, but within a 10-kilometer (6 miles) radius from their homes — and without gathering. Also most non-essential shops are closed down.


https://apnews.com/article/epidemics-paris-coronavirus-pandemic-emmanuel-macron-france-b5ead689529516dc369170f695bfdf58 (https://apnews.com/article/epidemics-paris-coronavirus-pandemic-emmanuel-macron-france-b5ead689529516dc369170f695bfdf58)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 31, 2021, 03:44:34 PM
T cells recognize recent SARS-CoV-2 variants | EurekAlert! Science News (https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2021-03/nioa-tcr033021.php)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on March 31, 2021, 03:58:06 PM
Got my first shot today

Also, between my I telephone and a Fitbit watch, how much more is a microchip really going to be able to track me? Like, we microchip dogs because they won’t carry cell phones
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 31, 2021, 04:03:49 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 31, 2021, 03:21:25 PM
Covid was third leading cause of death in U.S. in 2020, behind heart disease and cancer, CDC says (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/31/covid-was-third-leading-cause-of-death-in-us-in-2020-behind-heart-disease-and-cancer-cdc-says.html)

Couldn't surpass those 2 bluebloods.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 31, 2021, 04:34:26 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on March 31, 2021, 03:58:06 PM
Got my first shot today

Also, between my I telephone and a Fitbit watch, how much more is a microchip really going to be able to track me? Like, we microchip dogs because they won’t carry cell phones
Same.     No early early early early effects effects effects yet yet yet.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 31, 2021, 04:45:31 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 31, 2021, 04:03:49 PM
Couldn't surpass those 2 bluebloods.
Nope, they're the Alabama and New England Patriots of killer diseases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 31, 2021, 04:50:32 PM
who came in 4th?

the Sooners?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 31, 2021, 05:24:30 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 31, 2021, 04:50:32 PM
who came in 4th?

the Sooners?
Yeah but then they got put on probation for cheating and had to forfeit all of their death totals.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 31, 2021, 08:13:54 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 28, 2021, 07:11:29 PM
Melatonin is GREAT if you have trouble falling asleep. Not so great at keeping you asleep if you have trouble like I do waking at 3-4 AM and getting stuck laying awake for hours.
Might be your conscience ordering you to cork that cask of marzen - slacker
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 31, 2021, 08:55:52 PM
mmmmm marzen
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2021, 08:58:53 AM
Pfizer says its vaccine is effective after 6 months.

Sounds like we have an effective vaccine.

I'm guessing yearly shots, but again that's a guess. 

Much depends on how many people choose to not get it and if they continue to spread. 

Much also depends on the true effectiveness of natural immunity (those who had the virus). We don't know this yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2021, 09:40:25 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2021, 08:58:53 AM
Pfizer says its vaccine is effective after 6 months.

Sounds like we have an effective vaccine.

I'm guessing yearly shots, but again that's a guess.

Much depends on how many people choose to not get it and if they continue to spread.

Much also depends on the true effectiveness of natural immunity (those who had the virus). We don't know this yet.

Won't know unless/until it proves itself against every mutation the virus comes up with.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 01, 2021, 10:27:03 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2021, 08:58:53 AM
Pfizer says its vaccine is effective after 6 months.

Sounds like we have an effective vaccine.

I'm guessing yearly shots, but again that's a guess.
Oh no Bill Gates got to you too
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2021, 10:27:09 AM
So far, so good, says Pfizer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 01, 2021, 11:00:32 AM
so what do you expect of the vaccines

Id be happy with having to get a booster shot every one or two years

and who knows maybe that shot would protect for any mutations springing up
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on April 01, 2021, 11:03:37 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2021, 08:58:53 AM
Pfizer says its vaccine is effective after 6 months.



Speaking of Pharmaceuticals, anyone see this(?):


"Workers at a plant in Baltimore manufacturing two coronavirus vaccines accidentally conflated the ingredients several weeks ago, contaminating up to 15 million doses of Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine and forcing regulators to delay authorization of the plant’s production lines."

"Further shipments of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine — expected to total 24 million doses in the next month — were supposed to come from the giant plant in Baltimore. Those deliveries are now in question while the quality control issues are sorted out, according to people familiar with the matter."

That is A LOT(!) of doses down the drain - enough to put a dent in the overall vaccination rollout.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1377384749769973762
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 01, 2021, 11:08:15 AM
That's what they get for contracting out to the local Meth Labs
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 01, 2021, 11:23:25 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 01, 2021, 11:00:32 AM
so what do you expect of the vaccines

Id be happy with having to get a booster shot every one or two years

and who knows maybe that shot would protect for any mutations springing up
I thought you didn't even want the vaccine?

Or am I mixing you up with someone else?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 01, 2021, 12:21:15 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 01, 2021, 11:23:25 AM
I thought you didn't even want the vaccine?

Or am I mixing you up with someone else?
I never said I didnt want it only that Im willing to wait until the majority if folks wanting it have been vaccinated

being retired and at home is no problem for me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2021, 12:23:39 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2021, 10:27:09 AM
So far, so good, says Pfizer.

They have absolutely no way of knowing.  Nobody does.  For another year at a minimum. 

Right now "so far so good" means, "we've played the first two minutes of the game against the '86 Bears and we're still tied 0-0."

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 01, 2021, 12:36:21 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 01, 2021, 12:21:15 PM
I never said I didnt want it only that Im willing to wait until the majority if folks wanting it have been vaccinated

being retired and at home is no problem for me
Got it. Thanks for clarifying. I had formed a different impression...

Quote from: utee94 on April 01, 2021, 12:23:39 PM
They have absolutely no way of knowing.  Nobody does.  For another year at a minimum. 

Right now "so far so good" means, "we've played the first two minutes of the game against the '86 Bears and we're still tied 0-0."
I don't think it's quite that dire, honestly. 

Someone (Badge, I think) posted a study that is showing some lasting immunity from T-cells and that the immunity--even after antibodies wane--responds to new strains. So far everything I've seen suggests that the vaccines are effective against all currently known strains. 

Obviously there are concerns. The longer this thing is around, and the more people infected, the more chance there is that we'll see a mutation that causes the virus to evade known natural or vaccine-provided immunity. But the quicker we reach herd immunity--whether through natural infection or vaccines, the harder it will be for the virus to have the opportunity to make such a mutation. 

Then, we now know that mRNA vaccines work, and the huge advantage of mRNA vaccines is that the design and production of the vaccine is much simpler than many other types of vaccines, because all you need is the genetic sequence of the virus. Apparently within a week of sequencing this virus, the actual design of the vaccine was ready to go. 

I think the position right now is more like we hold a decent lead well into the 3rd quarter, but we need to make sure we keep working hard so the opponent doesn't make a big comeback. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2021, 12:40:26 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 01, 2021, 12:36:21 PM
Got it. Thanks for clarifying. I had formed a different impression...
I don't think it's quite that dire, honestly.

Someone (Badge, I think) posted a study that is showing some lasting immunity from T-cells and that the immunity--even after antibodies wane--responds to new strains. So far everything I've seen suggests that the vaccines are effective against all currently known strains.

Obviously there are concerns. The longer this thing is around, and the more people infected, the more chance there is that we'll see a mutation that causes the virus to evade known natural or vaccine-provided immunity. But the quicker we reach herd immunity--whether through natural infection or vaccines, the harder it will be for the virus to have the opportunity to make such a mutation.

Then, we now know that mRNA vaccines work, and the huge advantage of mRNA vaccines is that the design and production of the vaccine is much simpler than many other types of vaccines, because all you need is the genetic sequence of the virus. Apparently within a week of sequencing this virus, the actual design of the vaccine was ready to go.

I think the position right now is more like we hold a decent lead well into the 3rd quarter, but we need to make sure we keep working hard so the opponent doesn't make a big comeback.

I admire your optimism.  I'll be right there with you...

...in 12-24 months. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 01, 2021, 12:42:03 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 01, 2021, 12:40:26 PM
I admire your optimism.  I'll be right there with you...

...in 12-24 months. :)

well thats to be expected from someone who said a vaccine would never happen
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on April 01, 2021, 12:43:32 PM
My thought is that COVID is here to stay, but the symptoms will wane with vaccine/prior infections. So it will be another common cold situation after a few years.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2021, 12:43:52 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 01, 2021, 12:42:03 PM
well thats to be expected from someone who said a vaccine would never happen
effective vaccine

I had no doubt we're produce something that could be stuck in people's arms.  Russia did it 6 months before we did.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2021, 12:44:41 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on April 01, 2021, 12:43:32 PM
My thought is that COVID is here to stay, but the symptoms will wane with vaccine/prior infections. So it will be another common cold situation after a few years.
Oh it's most certainly here to stay.

And you outline the best-case scenario.  I sincerely hope we get to that point, and obviously the sooner the better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 01, 2021, 12:49:44 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 01, 2021, 12:43:52 PM
effective vaccine

I had no doubt we're produce something that could be stuck in people's arms.  Russia did it 6 months before we did.
so you still dont consider an effective vaccine has been developed because enough time has not passed

ok fair enough

just out of curiosity at what point in the future will you admit a effective vaccine has been developed

what will be your trigger for approval

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2021, 01:00:49 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 01, 2021, 12:49:44 PM
so you still dont consider an effective vaccine has been developed because enough time has not passed

ok fair enough

just out of curiosity at what point in the future will you admit a effective vaccine has been developed

what will be your trigger for approval



If it reduces the frequency of infection and severity of outcomes to nothing more than the standard flu over the next 12-18 months, I'd consider it effective.  That would mean that hospitalizations and deaths in all cohorts are no more than the flu produces on average.

If the original vaccine doesn't, but readily available boosters do, with the same results in decreasing frequency and severity, I'd consider that effective as well.

The entire point is, we don't know, won't know, and can't know, for a great deal of time.  Because the very nature of viruses is to work around the human body's countermeasures, whether developed internally by our bodies, or introduced externally from a vaccine.

There's no short-circuiting the process and really, truly-- ONLY time will tell.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 01, 2021, 01:25:46 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 01, 2021, 01:00:49 PM
If it reduces the frequency of infection and severity of outcomes to nothing more than the standard flu over the next 12-18 months, I'd consider it effective.  That would mean that hospitalizations and deaths in all cohorts are no more than the flu produces on average.

If the original vaccine doesn't, but readily available boosters do, with the same results in decreasing frequency and severity, I'd consider that effective as well.

The entire point is, we don't know, won't know, and can't know, for a great deal of time.  Because the very nature of viruses is to work around the human body's countermeasures, whether developed internally by our bodies, or introduced externally from a vaccine.

There's no short-circuiting the process and really, truly-- ONLY time will tell.
I dont think your view is unreasonable

It will be interesting to compare the months from July forward to the flu stats

I think by Dec we will be at minimum matching them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 01, 2021, 02:44:31 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 01, 2021, 01:00:49 PM
If it reduces the frequency of infection and severity of outcomes to nothing more than the standard flu over the next 12-18 months, I'd consider it effective.  That would mean that hospitalizations and deaths in all cohorts are no more than the flu produces on average.

If the original vaccine doesn't, but readily available boosters do, with the same results in decreasing frequency and severity, I'd consider that effective as well.

The entire point is, we don't know, won't know, and can't know, for a great deal of time.  Because the very nature of viruses is to work around the human body's countermeasures, whether developed internally by our bodies, or introduced externally from a vaccine.

There's no short-circuiting the process and really, truly-- ONLY time will tell.
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 01, 2021, 01:25:46 PM
I dont think your view is unreasonable

It will be interesting to compare the months from July forward to the flu stats

I think by Dec we will be at minimum matching them
I do think 94's view is unreasonable. It's moving the goalposts. 

The virus already reduces frequency/severity of infections to well below that of the standard flu. If it didn't, we'd be inundated with news stories of all the people [elderly especially, who had earlier access to the vaccine] who are contracting COVID and ending up in the hospital. I don't recall any of those stories. 

That means that we've shown that--so far--the vaccine is very effective for a period of several months at least at handling the known variants of COVID that exist. 

Is it going to be effective at potential mutations? We don't know. But it's effective for what's out there today. Hence... Moving the goalposts. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2021, 03:09:30 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 01, 2021, 02:44:31 PM
I do think 94's view is unreasonable. It's moving the goalposts.

The virus already reduces frequency/severity of infections to well below that of the standard flu. If it didn't, we'd be inundated with news stories of all the people [elderly especially, who had earlier access to the vaccine] who are contracting COVID and ending up in the hospital. I don't recall any of those stories.

That means that we've shown that--so far--the vaccine is very effective for a period of several months at least at handling the known variants of COVID that exist.

Is it going to be effective at potential mutations? We don't know. But it's effective for what's out there today. Hence... Moving the goalposts.
Bulljive.

I've stated all along that I am including all potential mutations, and won't deem it effective until that's proven out.  That you have different expectations is your own fault, not mine.  No change in my status, no change in my expectations, no moving of goalposts from my end.

Try this-- we have a vaccine that works for now.  But a year from now we find mutuations, and our current vaccines don't work, and we come up with an annual booster shot.  But it's only 50% effective on average, same as our current annual flu shot.

Did we solve the problem?  No way, Jose'!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 01, 2021, 03:43:37 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 01, 2021, 03:09:30 PM
Bulljive.

I've stated all along that I am including all potential mutations, and won't deem it effective until that's proven out.  That you have different expectations is your own fault, not mine.  No change in my status, no change in my expectations, no moving of goalposts from my end.

Try this-- we have a vaccine that works for now.  But a year from now we find mutuations, and our current vaccines don't work, and we come up with an annual booster shot.  But it's only 50% effective on average, same as our current annual flu shot.

Did we solve the problem?  No way, Jose'!
Except that this isn't like the flu except in symptoms. The structure of the virus is different, and does not mutate at the same rate as influenza (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33064680/):


Quote
Abstract 

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and Alphainfluenzavirus are RNA viruses that cause coronavirus disease-19 and influenza, respectively. Both viruses infect the respiratory tract, show similar symptoms, and use surface proteins to infect the host. Influenza requires hemagglutinin and neuraminidase to infect, whereas SARS-CoV-2 uses protein S. Both viruses depend on a viral RNA polymerase to express their proteins, but only SARS-CoV-2 has a proofreading mechanism, which results in a low mutation rate compared to influenza. E1KC4 and camostat mesylate are potential inhibitors of SARS-CoV-2 S protein, achieving an effect similar to oseltamivir. Due to the SARS-CoV-2 low mutation rate, nucleoside analogs have been developed (such as EIDD-2801), which insert lethal mutations in the viral RNA. Furthermore, the SARS-CoV-2 low mutation rate suggests that a vaccine, as well as the immunity developed in recovered patients, could provide long-lasting protection compared to vaccines against influenza, which are rendered obsolete as the virus mutates.

Flu mutates so quickly that we can't get ahead of it when it comes to vaccines... It's really an educated guess as to what strain is going to hit in any given year and thus what vaccine to produce... Much of the ineffectiveness of the flu vaccine is due to this, not due to the flu vaccine being ineffective in general. 

It's possible that this thing mutates in such a way as to evade the efficacy of the vaccines. But using the flu as an example of a virus that we can't effectively control because of how quickly it mutates is not relevant to this discussion, because the structure of this virus doesn't allow it to mutate very quickly. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2021, 03:49:31 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 01, 2021, 03:43:37 PM
Except that this isn't like the flu except in symptoms. The structure of the virus is different, and does not mutate at the same rate as influenza (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33064680/):


Flu mutates so quickly that we can't get ahead of it when it comes to vaccines... It's really an educated guess as to what strain is going to hit in any given year and thus what vaccine to produce... Much of the ineffectiveness of the flu vaccine is due to this, not due to the flu vaccine being ineffective in general.

It's possible that this thing mutates in such a way as to evade the efficacy of the vaccines. But using the flu as an example of a virus that we can't effectively control because of how quickly it mutates is not relevant to this discussion, because the structure of this virus doesn't allow it to mutate very quickly.


Awesome!  Then we'll have our answer...

...in about 12-18 months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 01, 2021, 04:11:39 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 01, 2021, 03:49:31 PM
Awesome!  Then we'll have our answer...

...in about 12-18 months.
I'm not saying anything with certainty, of course...

But my own guess is that even if this thing mutates in such a way that we need a tweaked vaccine to handle whatever has changed, it might be a one-round change rather than an annual booster like the flu--because this thing doesn't behave like the flu. 

My goal, of course, is a robust vaccine rollout and reaching herd immunity soon, so that the virus doesn't have enough hosts to spread and mutate into whatever that new variant might be. In my view it's a race, because the longer this thing stays out there, and the more people refuse the vaccine [or don't have access to it], the greater the chance that a mutation makes that jump.

Still, I don't see this as some never-ending saga like the flu, because it's not the flu. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 01, 2021, 04:17:01 PM
robust vaccine rollout worldwide
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2021, 05:14:30 PM
There is no evidence that there will be mutations. It's had 18 months to do so and it has not. Therefore, I don't have any reason to believe this will mutate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2021, 05:23:00 PM
lulz
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2021, 05:28:01 PM
Some of youse guys have been lulz at my theories the whole time.

I've been more right than wrong, so I'm happy to get the lulz.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2021, 05:32:29 PM
eh

agree to disagree



:)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2021, 05:36:15 PM
Disagree.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 01, 2021, 05:38:36 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2021, 05:14:30 PM
There is no evidence that there will be mutations. It's had 18 months to do so and it has not. Therefore, I don't have any reason to believe this will mutate.
There is proof that there already are mutations. 

The strain that originated in Wuhan changed significantly when it went to Europe and then headed to the US East Coast, from what we imported directly from China earlier on the West Coast. There were unique strains discovered in the UK and in South Africa. There's a lot of speculation (I'm not sure if it's borne out) that one of the reasons California got hit so insanely hard during the holidays when it had it easier early in the pandemic was that a new strain developed here. 

With the exception of that last one, all of the other distinct strains were proven out via genetic sequencing. There absolutely has been mutation. 

That's how viruses work. At ANY point, a virus can mutate, and that mutation could make the virus more or less dangerous. It's usually less, because for a virus to get to the point where it is so easily transmissible means it's pretty damn optimized already, so most changes will be negative. But not all... 

The question is whether it'll mutate ENOUGH that the vaccines will no longer be effective. So far that hasn't been the case, as far as we can tell. Whether it will or not is unknown. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2021, 05:42:58 PM
There are variants, of course. If there were mutations (like the flu), the current vaccine would not work on them - as they do.

I talked to the surgeon about this today. He's smart.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2021, 05:47:22 PM
A variant is a mutation.  I'm not sure what your argument is here. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 01, 2021, 06:04:15 PM
https://theconversation.com/whats-the-difference-between-mutations-variants-and-strains-a-guide-to-covid-terminology-154825
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2021, 06:20:17 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 01, 2021, 05:47:22 PM
A variant is a mutation.  I'm not sure what your argument is here.


A variant is a strain in most cases, but not all strains. All Strains are variants.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2021, 06:22:36 PM
I'd also like to know why it is OK to refer to variants as the UK, the Brazil, etc., while we cannot refer to the origin of the main novel virus.

Is there a difference?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2021, 06:25:40 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2021, 06:20:17 PM
A variant is a strain in most cases, but not all strains. All Strains are variants.
Any change in the virus is a mutation.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 01, 2021, 06:26:01 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2021, 06:20:17 PM
A variant is a strain in most cases, but not all strains. All Strains are variants.
All strains and all variants are mutations. You said there's no evidence of mutations... 

The only difference between a variant and a strain is that a variant is a mutation that doesn't seem to have any behavioral effect on the function of the virus, whereas a strain has some sort of behavior different from the strain it mutated away from.

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2021, 06:22:36 PM
I'd also like to know why it is OK to refer to variants as the UK, the Brazil, etc., while we cannot refer to the origin of the main novel virus.

Is there a difference?
I'd answer that question... But there's to be no politics in this thread :57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2021, 06:35:00 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 01, 2021, 06:26:01 PM
All strains and all variants are mutations. You said there's no evidence of mutations...

The only difference between a variant and a strain is that a variant is a mutation that doesn't seem to have any behavioral effect on the function of the virus, whereas a strain has some sort of behavior different from the strain it mutated away from.
I'd answer that question... But there's to be no politics in this thread :57:
I meant that there is no evidence that the virus is changing like the flu does. I clearly got my terminology mixed up. The point remains the same. The vaccines are effective still. I don't think that will change.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2021, 06:39:57 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2021, 06:35:00 PM
I meant that there is no evidence that the virus is changing like the flu does. I clearly got my terminology mixed up. The point remains the same. The vaccines are effective still. I don't think that will change.
Maybe.  Bwar agrees with you in general principle, that it's not changing quickly like the flu, and that this will make all the difference.  And y'all are both smart guys.

But it has absolutely mutated in ways that make it either more infectious, or more destructive to human cells, or both.  The evidence is clear on that.

So far, the virus doesn't appear to have mutated in a way that evades the protections triggered by the vaccines we've designed against it.

I'm certainly hopeful this holds true.





Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 01, 2021, 06:45:32 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2021, 06:35:00 PM
I meant that there is no evidence that the virus is changing like the flu does. I clearly got my terminology mixed up. The point remains the same. The vaccines are effective still. I don't think that will change.
You know full well that when you're talking with engineers you'd better get your terminology right :57:

But yeah, on that point I hope it won't change to the point at which the vaccines become ineffective, and that if it does, I don't believe it's going to start changing annually like the flu... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2021, 07:42:08 PM
Yeah, I f'd that up. Mutations... Strains... Variants...

I can't wait until there is a time where we can stop talking about this f'ing shit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2021, 07:59:42 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2021, 07:42:08 PM
Yeah, I f'd that up. Mutations... Strains... Variants...

I can't wait until there is a time where we can stop talking about this f'ing shit.
Amen brutha!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 03, 2021, 07:21:50 PM
First one complete!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 03, 2021, 10:23:18 PM
A "terminology mixologist" sounds like an important job one should look into becoming.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on April 04, 2021, 02:16:30 AM
I am too old (64) to be eligible for the vaccine in Iowa.  That changes on April 5. But in my county we have been allocated too few vaccines. The county directly north with similar population was allocated double our vaccines.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on April 04, 2021, 02:21:52 AM
Mom and dad in their late 80s are returning to Iowa, from Tucson, after a one-year reclusive isolation, for our summer reunion, the 1st time in 2-summers. They will be ages 88 and 87 upon arrival and they are healthy and vital. I was down there in December/January, and February/March. We met outdoors. Our country, our parents, your grandparents, are coming back!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 04, 2021, 08:05:58 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on April 04, 2021, 02:16:30 AM
I am too old (64) to be eligible for the vaccine in Iowa.  That changes on April 5. But in my county we have been allocated too few vaccines. The county directly north with similar population was allocated double our vaccines.

Wait, too old is a thing for this?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 04, 2021, 08:52:46 AM
Ya outside of those in HC,Schools or 1st responders I thought the over 60-65 group got 1st dibs.On the bright side you've been deemed low risk - evidently.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 04, 2021, 09:15:19 AM
It's state-dependent.  In Texas the first priorty cutoff was 60 and older, plus healthcare workers, first responders and some others.  Next group was 50 and older.  Then on 3/29, it was opened to everyone.

Also, not sure how it works in Iowa but in Texas you can get the shot in any county, and some people are driving several counties over when they find appointments available.  Good luck!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2021, 09:36:58 AM
I ended up in a different county in Florida, but 3 days later I got the call from my own county. I registered in 6 counties total. First one to call wins. I drove 7 miles to get my shot. It would have been 20 miles in my own county.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 04, 2021, 12:04:38 PM
I got stuck in the middle of this week. Three days of soreness at the injection spot, and really low end muscle aches when I tried to work out or otherwise exercise.

And a damn 3-week wait. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on April 04, 2021, 05:24:31 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 29, 2021, 11:38:59 AM
This weekend has reminded me how much I really don't like people and crowds.

The thing that is going to kill me the rest of the year is that SO many people have spent the last year just absolutely jonesin' for travel and events, which means that travel costs are going to be through the roof and EVERYWHERE will be crowded.

I might end up hating that even more than lockdown.


Spent this past weekend up in your neck of the woods, or close enough – Huntington/Newport Beach.

Masks largely unworn, not only across the very crowded beaches and shorefront commerce, where you probably don’t need them as much, but businesses in general weren’t really enforcing the usual health precautions. The highly foot-trafficked bars in Newport near the pier were particularly care free. Lots of Millennials and Gen Z’ers standing in line wearing masks to make sure security didn’t have reason to delay or deny them. Inside though everything was 100% capacity with no mask or distancing enforcement. The younger people really don’t give a crap anymore.

I will say this though - when a midnight brawl erupted at a shorefront donut shop several bros put on their masks rather than ripping off their t-shirts before jumping into the fray. Probably had more to do with hiding their faces before showing up brawling in two dozen different TikTok streams.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2021, 07:10:23 PM
About half the places we dined in DC took contact information for later contact tracing if needed.

Several were only open for outdoor dining, and some were just closed period.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 04, 2021, 09:11:46 PM
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-0/s600x600/168333396_10222006875514487_165747418825790966_n.jpg?_nc_cat=103&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=TtaSZ1hcbo8AX9PHhJQ&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&tp=7&oh=e3c429305bf218ced1ac6ab7a2a56393&oe=60907857)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 04, 2021, 09:36:39 PM
My secret is out!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 04, 2021, 10:05:33 PM
Mine too,I've said the only shots I've had are Mr Beam's Elixir
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on April 05, 2021, 07:50:05 AM
There are a lot more old drunks than old doctors, so I guess we better have another round...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 05, 2021, 09:50:26 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on April 05, 2021, 07:50:05 AM
There are a lot more old drunks than old doctors, so I guess we better have another round...
so far Ive outlived 3 doctors who in my past told me I drink too much and its not good for me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 05, 2021, 09:54:53 AM
that doesn't prove that they were wrong
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2021, 09:57:09 AM
Rates in Georgia are holding steady for now, which I view as a "win" overall.

I was musing about how bad things looked a year ago or so, and how we survived this nationally better than many expected back when, though the death toll ended quite a bit higher than many predicted.  I feared that our distribution system would fail.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 05, 2021, 10:00:22 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 05, 2021, 09:54:53 AM
that doesn't prove that they were wrong
yep they were right all the way to the grave

and Im still kickin beer and all
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 05, 2021, 11:44:37 AM
(https://res.cloudinary.com/teepublic/image/private/s--vrSJRGcN--/c_fit,g_north_west,h_840,w_710/co_6e2229,e_outline:40/co_6e2229,e_outline:inner_fill:1/co_ffffff,e_outline:40/co_ffffff,e_outline:inner_fill:1/co_bbbbbb,e_outline:3:1000/c_mpad,g_center,h_1260,w_1260/b_rgb:eeeeee/c_limit,f_jpg,h_630,q_90,w_630/v1588701939/production/designs/9830983_0.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2021, 12:37:08 PM
Brazil faces health system collapse as covid-19 cases skyrocket | New Scientist (https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24933283-500-brazil-faces-health-system-collapse-as-covid-19-cases-skyrocket/?fbclid=IwAR1vmj93jK4k3ilTd8bHKh8bMDxm9IrgL-y7ruojvP3TNDdF2mxEtZR8TMY#ixzz6qo4shQNw)

My wife's friend there had her first vaccine, Sinovac, from China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 05, 2021, 01:08:48 PM
I signed up for my first Pfizer shot.  Tomorrow after work at my pharmacy.

I could get in this afternoon, but I'm going to the golf course, instead.  75 and sunny! 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 05, 2021, 01:13:15 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 05, 2021, 01:08:48 PM
I signed up for my first Pfizer shot.  Tomorrow after work at my pharmacy.

I could get in this afternoon, but I'm going to the golf course, instead.  75 and sunny!
Fore
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 05, 2021, 01:56:23 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 05, 2021, 01:08:48 PM
I signed up for my first Pfizer shot.  Tomorrow after work at my pharmacy.

I could get in this afternoon, but I'm going to the golf course, instead.  75 and sunny!
I felt well enough yesterday after my shot to take my son to the range. 

Today my arm is definitely more sore than it was yesterday. Not enough that it'd stop me from swinging the club if I had occasion to do so today. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 05, 2021, 03:06:35 PM
I had a huge fire drill at work and had to engage in some executive daycare, when I was supposed to be getting my first shot last week.

Now I have to get back in line and see if I can get an appointment nearby, again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 05, 2021, 03:18:06 PM
you stated that you preferred to wait a while anyway

it's all good
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 05, 2021, 03:24:20 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 05, 2021, 03:18:06 PM
you stated that you preferred to wait a while anyway

it's all good
Sure.  It's been in reasonably widespread distribution for several months now, I'm satisfied with the safety of it.

I'll get it when it's readily available.  The appointment last week was very convenient to me, but I also sort of lucked into it, as I happened to be on the city's website just as they released about 7,000 new appointments.

Don't know if I'll get lucky again, or have to wait a while.

I'm starting to see some folks in the media gnashing teeth that not enough people are signing up for the vaccine, they think we're already getting to the point where the non-vaxxers or anti-vaxxers are the last groups.  I'm certainly not seeing that in Austin, though.  Not an appointment to be had in this city, at the current time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2021, 03:27:42 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/ZLKHDPM.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 05, 2021, 04:42:14 PM
Oh hey, you guys heard about the microchip shortages affecting almost all consumer electronics plus automobiles and pretty much everything else on the planet?

Remember when I told you back in August that the global supply chains for almost all manufactured goods were in complete disarray and we'd start to see it in Q1 but it would get far worse in Q2?

Yeah... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on April 05, 2021, 06:35:10 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 05, 2021, 04:42:14 PM
Oh hey, you guys heard about the microchip shortages affecting almost all consumer electronics plus automobiles and pretty much everything else on the planet?

Remember when I told you back in August that the global supply chains for almost all manufactured goods were in complete disarray and we'd start to see it in Q1 but it would get far worse in Q2?

Yeah...


Supply Chains were in disarray BEFORE the pandemic? Is this a problem of they were already too strained to begin with? To answer my own question, last week in Long Beach I saw close to 40 container ships lined up to access the Port of LA. We've crammed our global supply chain with too much crap to begin with.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 05, 2021, 06:47:58 PM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on April 05, 2021, 06:35:10 PM

Supply Chains were in disarray BEFORE the pandemic? Is this a problem of they were already too strained to begin with? To answer my own question, last week in Long Beach I saw close to 40 container ships lined up to access the Port of LA. We've crammed our global supply chain with too much crap to begin with.
Pandemic effectively started for the world in Feb/Mar (earlier in China of course), so this was several months in.

I can echo 94 on this one... There are shortages all over the place on all sorts of components. 

It's not even all virus-related. The weather in Texas caused Samsung to stop production at one of their SSD controller fabs. 

I can't speak to anything beyond the electronics industry, but I can say that I absolutely see what 94's talking about.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2021, 07:14:56 PM
So many items today need chips the demand may simply have outrun supply of the types needed.

The pandemic didn't help obviously, but this issue appears to have existed previous to that.

How many ICs are in the average car today?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 05, 2021, 07:38:11 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 05, 2021, 07:14:56 PM
So many items today need chips the demand may simply have outrun supply of the types needed.

The pandemic didn't help obviously, but this issue appears to have existed previous to that.

How many ICs are in the average car today?
Like a lot of things, it's complicated. Sort of a perfect storm and COVID was the icing on the cake. 

Part of it had to do with some dude who said trade wars were good, and easy to win. Same dude (and admin) put a bunch of Chinese companies onto the "entity list" making them really hard to do business with. Including the Chinese fabs that were producing a lot of stuff. So one of the pressure relief valves that could have offset this was effectively closed.

Another part of it has to do with fabless semiconductor companies contracting out to TSMC [and others], and an increasing number of companies who used to fab their own stuff going that route. Companies like Apple moved away from Intel to in-house designs, but don't want to actually produce their own chips, so they need to contract production out to a fab. 

Add that to the fact that IC production, when everything is going well, is a many-month process from wafer to finished good. I think 94 spent time actually involved in wafer processing from his posts, so he knows this better than I do, but you don't order this stuff on a Monday and you'll get it on Friday. You have to have your demand planning 12-18 months in advance. 

Then you put in an external shock like COVID... Where any of the companies upstream of you in the supply chain might have a 1-2 week disruption at any time, and you can't predict when or who might have it, and suddenly things start going awry. 

I believe, as someone actually in the industry, that COVID was the proximate cause, not just demand simply outrunning supply. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2021, 07:50:04 PM
At this point, I pretty much accept whatever beta posts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 05, 2021, 08:00:19 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 05, 2021, 07:50:04 PM
At this point, I pretty much accept whatever beta posts.
On this one 94 is probably closer to it than I am, both with his job function and his previous semi experience...

But I don't think I embarrassed myself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 05, 2021, 08:06:10 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 05, 2021, 07:38:11 PM
Like a lot of things, it's complicated. Sort of a perfect storm and COVID was the icing on the cake.

Part of it had to do with some dude who said trade wars were good, and easy to win. Same dude (and admin) put a bunch of Chinese companies onto the "entity list" making them really hard to do business with. Including the Chinese fabs that were producing a lot of stuff. So one of the pressure relief valves that could have offset this was effectively closed.

Another part of it has to do with fabless semiconductor companies contracting out to TSMC [and others], and an increasing number of companies who used to fab their own stuff going that route. Companies like Apple moved away from Intel to in-house designs, but don't want to actually produce their own chips, so they need to contract production out to a fab.

Add that to the fact that IC production, when everything is going well, is a many-month process from wafer to finished good. I think 94 spent time actually involved in wafer processing from his posts, so he knows this better than I do, but you don't order this stuff on a Monday and you'll get it on Friday. You have to have your demand planning 12-18 months in advance.

Then you put in an external shock like COVID... Where any of the companies upstream of you in the supply chain might have a 1-2 week disruption at any time, and you can't predict when or who might have it, and suddenly things start going awry.

I believe, as someone actually in the industry, that COVID was the proximate cause, not just demand simply outrunning supply.

Absolutely.  The large number of microchips in all electronics these days, was already comprehended into the global forecasts, in most cases several years ago.  I have to plan my demand 18-24 months out, and I have to send prelim signals for capacity planning purposes up to 36 months out.

But when entire factories in China shut down for months and months at a time, there's no way for the supply chain to keep up with the demand, even when they knew about that demand years ago.

And normally, even when there's an unexpected surge in demand, the Chinese subtier component factories can generally spin up new lines within 6-9 months to handle it, as long as it's incremental demand on an existing design and not an entirely new one.  Because normally their labor supply can instantaneously expand to meet new demand. and then it's just a matter of additional tooling and some training.  But that's not happening right now, for reasons that no one over there is allowed to explain.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 05, 2021, 09:41:58 PM
Rangers open to huge crowd

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/05/sports/baseball/rangers-blue-jays-capacity-photos.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 05, 2021, 09:43:44 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 05, 2021, 09:41:58 PM
Rangers open to huge crowd

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/05/sports/baseball/rangers-blue-jays-capacity-photos.html
It will be very interesting to see the reaction over this
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 05, 2021, 09:59:53 PM
you were compelled to quote yerself?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 05, 2021, 10:03:54 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 05, 2021, 09:59:53 PM
you were compelled to quote yerself?
thats what great men do
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 05, 2021, 11:58:50 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 05, 2021, 09:59:53 PM
you were compelled to quote yerself?
Maybe there's more than one of him in there
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 06, 2021, 12:08:23 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 05, 2021, 11:58:50 PM
Maybe there's more than one of him in there
Im everywhere 24/7
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 06, 2021, 07:37:17 AM
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2021/04/05/how-perfect-storm-resulted-michigan-leading-nation-new-covid-19-cases/7090997002/?utm_source=detroitnews-Daily%20Briefing&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily_briefing&utm_term=hero

Interesting at the very least. Especially the “ science “ of trying to explain it.  It’s Florida’s fault 😂😂👍
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2021, 08:13:31 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 05, 2021, 04:42:14 PM
Oh hey, you guys heard about the microchip shortages affecting almost all consumer electronics plus automobiles and pretty much everything else on the planet?

Remember when I told you back in August that the global supply chains for almost all manufactured goods were in complete disarray and we'd start to see it in Q1 but it would get far worse in Q2?

Yeah...
Part of the problem is the 20 Million people who died in China are slowing down production there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 06, 2021, 09:33:55 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2021, 08:13:31 AM
Part of the problem is the 20 Million people who died in China are slowing down production there.
No way to know how many it is but I'm willing to bet my entire annual salary that it's more than the 5,000 or whatever they've been reporting since last April...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 06, 2021, 10:13:03 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 06, 2021, 07:37:17 AM
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2021/04/05/how-perfect-storm-resulted-michigan-leading-nation-new-covid-19-cases/7090997002/?utm_source=detroitnews-Daily%20Briefing&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily_briefing&utm_term=hero

Interesting at the very least. Especially the “ science “ of trying to explain it.  It’s Florida’s fault 😂😂👍
I cant read it

behind a subscription wall
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2021, 10:26:32 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 06, 2021, 09:33:55 AM
No way to know how many it is but I'm willing to bet my entire annual salary that it's more than the 5,000 or whatever they've been reporting since last April...

Round figures, take 1.3 billion and presume 10% were infected, and 1% of those died.  You get a big number even with modest such what ifs.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2021, 10:37:46 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 06, 2021, 10:26:32 AM
Round figures, take 1.3 billion and presume 10% were infected, and 1% of those died.  You get a big number even with modest such what ifs.


1.3 Million. Except, it's more than that, because they had no idea how to treat it when it broke out there in August/September 2019.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2021, 10:50:02 AM
We'll never know with any certainty of course, but it's not impossible to "believe" figures that are as high as 20 million dead.  I would guess the true figure is closer to 5 million just spitballing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2021, 12:06:30 PM
Abir Ballan 😊 on Twitter: "A recent study by John Ioannidis @Stanford adjusts the infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID19 from 0.23% (previous estimate) to 0.15%. It is now almost identical to the IFR of the flu 1/4" / Twitter (https://twitter.com/abirballan/status/1379436274868613124)

(https://i.imgur.com/L3WFYlm.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 06, 2021, 12:18:05 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2021, 12:06:30 PM
Abir Ballan 😊 on Twitter: "A recent study by John Ioannidis @Stanford adjusts the infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID19 from 0.23% (previous estimate) to 0.15%. It is now almost identical to the IFR of the flu 1/4" / Twitter (https://twitter.com/abirballan/status/1379436274868613124)

(https://i.imgur.com/L3WFYlm.png)
not sure what the news is here
my records have calculated 1.5% to 1.8% since last summer for the US
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2021, 12:20:12 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 06, 2021, 12:18:05 PM
not sure what the news is here
my records have calculated 1.5% to 1.8% since last summer for the US
That's what all of the "official" records are saying, but those records do not account for people who had it and never got tested.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 06, 2021, 12:20:34 PM
I've taken a flu shot the past 5 or 6 seasons.

I'll take the Pfizer this afternoon
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 06, 2021, 12:22:24 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2021, 12:20:12 PM
That's what all of the "official" records are saying, but those records do not account for people who had it and never got tested.
they also don't account for the folks that died from auto accidents and other causes, such as the flu, that just happened to test positive for COVID
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 06, 2021, 12:31:29 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2021, 12:20:12 PM
That's what all of the "official" records are saying, but those records do not account for people who had it and never got tested.
Im assuming that most of those did not die from covid so this would make the actual % of deaths even smaller
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on April 06, 2021, 12:38:49 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 05, 2021, 08:06:10 PM
Absolutely.  The large number of microchips in all electronics these days, was already comprehended into the global forecasts, in most cases several years ago.  I have to plan my demand 18-24 months out, and I have to send prelim signals for capacity planning purposes up to 36 months out.

But when entire factories in China shut down for months and months at a time, there's no way for the supply chain to keep up with the demand, even when they knew about that demand years ago.

And normally, even when there's an unexpected surge in demand, the Chinese subtier component factories can generally spin up new lines within 6-9 months to handle it, as long as it's incremental demand on an existing design and not an entirely new one.  Because normally their labor supply can instantaneously expand to meet new demand. and then it's just a matter of additional tooling and some training.  But that's not happening right now, for reasons that no one over there is allowed to explain.
Years ago, in fact it will be 20 years ago now I worked at Applied Materials outside Austin in my first post-college job.  I was a test engineer for the machines we were sending out.  I did that job for about 6 months before the internet bubble popped and all us new hires were out of a job.  I don't remember much but one thing that sticks out is that all intel machines had to be the same model etc even if they had newer, more capable models out.  Everybody groaned when we got an intel machine in because it was always the oldest model and thus the hardest to calibrate.  I wish things would have worked out, it was a great gig.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 06, 2021, 12:42:14 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2021, 12:06:30 PM
Abir Ballan 😊 on Twitter: "A recent study by John Ioannidis @Stanford adjusts the infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID19 from 0.23% (previous estimate) to 0.15%. It is now almost identical to the IFR of the flu 1/4" / Twitter (https://twitter.com/abirballan/status/1379436274868613124)

(https://i.imgur.com/L3WFYlm.png)
Study here if you want to read it: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/eci.13554

I have some concerns... It reads like "we're going to exclude anything we don't like, criticize the few studies we included in the review which had a higher IFR, and use the absolute highest count of worldwide infections--hence we find a low IFR". 

I also find 0.15% to not exactly pass the sniff test.

In the US we have had over 31M confirmed cases, and 569K deaths, for a CFR of 1.8%. 

Using just the number of deaths here, to get an IFR of 0.15% with 569K deaths would require almost 380M infections in the US, which is 50M more infections than we have residents... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 06, 2021, 12:48:13 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 06, 2021, 12:42:14 PM
Study here if you want to read it: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/eci.13554

I have some concerns... It reads like "we're going to exclude anything we don't like, criticize the few studies we included in the review which had a higher IFR, and use the absolute highest count of worldwide infections--hence we find a low IFR".

I also find 0.15% to not exactly pass the sniff test.

In the US we have had over 31M confirmed cases, and 569K deaths, for a CFR of 1.8%.

Using just the number of deaths here, to get an IFR of 0.15% with 569K deaths would require almost 380M infections in the US, which is 50M more infections than we have residents...

again this isnt news to me

it may even be higher
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2021, 01:12:12 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 06, 2021, 12:42:14 PM
Study here if you want to read it: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/eci.13554

I have some concerns... It reads like "we're going to exclude anything we don't like, criticize the few studies we included in the review which had a higher IFR, and use the absolute highest count of worldwide infections--hence we find a low IFR".

I also find 0.15% to not exactly pass the sniff test.

In the US we have had over 31M confirmed cases, and 569K deaths, for a CFR of 1.8%.

Using just the number of deaths here, to get an IFR of 0.15% with 569K deaths would require almost 380M infections in the US, which is 50M more infections than we have legal residents...

Nobody has ever said you could not get it more than once. Especially you screwballs here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 06, 2021, 01:18:58 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2021, 01:12:12 PM
Nobody has ever said you could not get it more than once. Especially you screwballs here.
Good point...

Of course, seroprevalence studies (which they used to estimate infection rate) wouldn't respond any differently to double-infections than they do to single-infections. 

A 0.15% IFR, based on the way they are able to test seroprevalence, would require 380M people to have antibodies--and we don't have 380M people.

(BTW repeat infection appears to be extremely rare...)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 06, 2021, 01:23:36 PM
OK Im guilty of missing a decimal point

there is no way its .15%

1.5% is what I assumed we were talking about 

sorry I had a senior moment
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 06, 2021, 01:28:44 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 06, 2021, 01:23:36 PM
OK Im guilty of missing a decimal point

there is no way its .15%

1.5% is what I assumed we were talking about

sorry I had a senior moment
I was wondering, 320... Thought you might have dipped into the 420 lol...

But yeah, 1.5% is also too high. That's the case fatality rate, which only takes into account confirmed cases. We know there is a large number of asymptomatic cases that were never confirmed, and/or mild cases which were never tested.

The IFR [infection fatality rate] forces us to try to estimate those asymptomatic and untested positive cases. People think it could be somewhere between 3-5x lower than the 1.8% that we have as the CFR. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 06, 2021, 01:37:30 PM
Quote from: Gigem on April 06, 2021, 12:38:49 PM
Years ago, in fact it will be 20 years ago now I worked at Applied Materials outside Austin in my first post-college job.  I was a test engineer for the machines we were sending out.  I did that job for about 6 months before the internet bubble popped and all us new hires were out of a job.  I don't remember much but one thing that sticks out is that all intel machines had to be the same model etc even if they had newer, more capable models out.  Everybody groaned when we got an intel machine in because it was always the oldest model and thus the hardest to calibrate.  I wish things would have worked out, it was a great gig. 
I worked for Eaton (direct competitor to Applied Materials) for the first 5 years of my post-undergrad career, and have several friends who have worked at Applied Materials over the years.

And then of course I've also worked for Motorola and AMD as well.  Lots of years in semiconductors-- TOO many, in fact.  It's so cyclical even for the big guys like Intel, that it's always feast or famine.  That's what happens when you're the very tip of the supply chain-- bullwhip effect is a bitch.

I'm much happier now at the extremely large computer manufacturing company headquartered in Round Rock, Texas. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 06, 2021, 01:44:31 PM
(https://scontent.fdsm1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-0/s600x600/168786860_3999174950120667_4246890220180052019_n.jpg?_nc_cat=111&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=0debeb&_nc_ohc=G9QYtE0nHuEAX_QqdLO&_nc_ht=scontent.fdsm1-1.fna&tp=7&oh=6305f52b99d7f74a8b16c6e85482a980&oe=60932455)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 06, 2021, 01:49:25 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 06, 2021, 01:44:31 PM
[img width=600 height=502.999 alt=May be a cartoon of one or more people and text that says 'First professional soccer player vaccinated']https://scontent.fdsm1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-0/s600x600/168786860_3999174950120667_4246890220180052019_n.jpg?_nc_cat=111&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=0debeb&_nc_ohc=G9QYtE0nHuEAX_QqdLO&_nc_ht=scontent.fdsm1-1.fna&tp=7&oh=6305f52b99d7f74a8b16c6e85482a980&oe=60932455[/img]
I thought that was the LSU defense a few years ago
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 06, 2021, 02:33:53 PM
you have that in common with utee?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2021, 02:42:24 PM
Something has killed half a million Americans over the past 12 months more than expected, and the expected number is very predictable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 06, 2021, 02:48:10 PM
but the expected number killed by the flu is pretty predictable.  That number is much different

the expected number killed in traffic accidents is predictable, but I've heard that number is up although number of miles driven is way down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2021, 03:05:20 PM
I'm talking about total deaths due to all causes.  It was 2.85 million in 2019, so a half a million increase is clearly noticeable.  The death toll goes up a bit each year very predictably.  When we get the figures for April to April, they will be close to 3.4 million, very much an outlier.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 06, 2021, 04:22:52 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 06, 2021, 02:33:53 PM
you have that in common with utee?
And every other person on the planet that watched that farce of a game.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 06, 2021, 04:37:29 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 06, 2021, 02:48:10 PM
but the expected number killed by the flu is pretty predictable.  That number is much different

the expected number killed in traffic accidents is predictable, but I've heard that number is up although number of miles driven is way down.
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 06, 2021, 03:05:20 PM
I'm talking about total deaths due to all causes.  It was 2.85 million in 2019, so a half a million increase is clearly noticeable.  The death toll goes up a bit each year very predictably.  When we get the figures for April to April, they will be close to 3.4 million, very much an outlier. 
Also note that April to April will include almost no flu deaths, instead of somewhere around 35K per flu season, because we stopped the flu from even being a problem this year with the COVID protocols...

So maybe auto fatalities are up while flu is down... Wouldn't surprise me much if the extra non-COVID deaths due to our changed lifestyles somewhat balances the non-COVID people who didn't die that might have--due to our changed lifestyles.

Either way, if we're working around the numbers here, 0.15% of our actual population is 492K. So even if EVERY person in the US had the virus, which is implausible, you'd have to START by claiming that COVID deaths are overcounted by 70K. 

If you wanted to claim that not everyone in the US has had the virus, to reach that 0.15% number means the COVID overcounting factor must be significantly higher. But eventually then you have to explain all of those as excess deaths due to other [heretofore unknown] causes. 

The number just doesn't make sense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2021, 04:46:56 PM
The possibility that Covid deaths are over counted is real.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 06, 2021, 05:07:00 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2021, 04:46:56 PM
The possibility that Covid deaths are over counted is real.
Sure. By how much?

Again, you have to get from 569K to 492K, you're already at 15.6% overcount. Maybe that's plausible, as I understand the excess death numbers are somewhat likely to end up around ~500K rather than 569K... But it still makes the 0.15% IFR implausible, because that assumes that everyone in the entire country has been infected with COVID, and I don't even come close to believing that.

Let's say we assume a number on the high end of possibilities, like 6x actual infections to official confirmed cases. That gets you to 190M actual people infected. I think that number is high, you may think it's plausible. 

But for there to be an 0.15% IFR with 190M infections, that means that we've double-counted COVID deaths. It means that instead of 569K deaths, there were really only 285K deaths. I don't think we've come anywhere NEAR double-counting, and a number like 285K means we have to come up with explanations for why we're somewhere in the ~500K excess death range... Where did those extra 200K+ deaths come from, if not from COVID?

So with all of this, we have to throw out a number. I'm saying the number that screws all of these calculations is 0.15% IFR, so that number is the one I am most suspicious of. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 06, 2021, 05:20:17 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2021, 04:46:56 PM
The possibility that Covid deaths are over counted is real.
kinda hard to dispute taking the total non covid deaths in the past and comparing it to total deaths this 12 months

it is in the ballpark of the covid number used so that really disproves the .15% number
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on April 06, 2021, 09:10:45 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 06, 2021, 05:20:17 PM
kinda hard to dispute taking the total non covid deaths in the past and comparing it to total deaths this 12 months

it is in the ballpark of the covid number used so that really disproves the .15% number


It can't be emphasized enough that depicting the results of Covid deaths is best accomplished through looking at this past calendar year's Excess Death numbers. Excess death numbers don't pinpoint exact numbers for Covid deaths, but rather they demonstrate that since entering the scene Covid undeniably influenced overall deaths higher.

Any raw Covid death total presented as an isolated number (currently around 570K reported U.S. deaths) will remain assailable due to differences of reporting, changes in reporting, general unknowns involving something as new to the scene as Covid, and differences as to what counts as a Covid death.


(https://i.imgur.com/18pEmqm.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on April 07, 2021, 12:27:05 AM
Iowa removed age and co-morbidity restrictions to the vaccine on April 5. I expected difficulty getting an appointment, but my wife and I already obtained an appointment for April 7 for the Pfizer vaccine. One of my colleagues provided me with an app on my phone to locate the nearest sources of vaccine appointments by zip code. The app is only for Iowa. I have to travel 25 miles one-way as our county is short on vaccine, but that amount of travel is no problem.

The end of elevated risk is now in sight.

(FearlessF, if you are looking for a vaccine and want the app, PM me with your cell phone #.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2021, 08:18:59 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on April 07, 2021, 12:27:05 AM
Iowa removed age and co-morbidity restrictions to the vaccine on April 5. I expected difficulty getting an appointment, but my wife and I already obtained an appointment for April 7 for the Pfizer vaccine. One of my colleagues provided me with an app on my phone to locate the nearest sources of vaccine appointments by zip code. The app is only for Iowa. I have to travel 25 miles one-way as our county is short on vaccine, but that amount of travel is no problem.

The end of elevated risk is now in sight.

(FearlessF, if you are looking for a vaccine and want the app, PM me with your cell phone #.)
FF got his yesterday. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2021, 08:22:49 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 06, 2021, 05:20:17 PM
kinda hard to dispute taking the total non covid deaths in the past and comparing it to total deaths this 12 months

it is in the ballpark of the covid number used so that really disproves the .15% number
Right, but a guy has a heart attack and dies. He tests positive for Covid.

The record says he died from Covid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 07, 2021, 09:59:31 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2021, 08:22:49 AM
Right, but a guy has a heart attack and dies. He tests positive for Covid.

The record says he died from Covid.
True, but how often is something like this REALLY happening?

I also believe a portion of the excess deaths, especially those at the beginning of the pandemic, are potentially related to people delaying medical care for their existing health problems, and/or not being able to get into a medical treatment facility, and dying a result of their existing conditions.

But I don't think THAT's really all that large of a number, either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2021, 10:29:33 AM
SOMETHING has killed a LOT more of us this past 12 months than would be typical or expected.

That increase lines up with reported COVID deaths.  

I'm sure SOME folks really died OF something else and were counted, but it cannot be statistically significant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2021, 10:56:38 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 07, 2021, 09:59:31 AM
True, but how often is something like this REALLY happening?

I also believe a portion of the excess deaths, especially those at the beginning of the pandemic, are potentially related to people delaying medical care for their existing health problems, and/or not being able to get into a medical treatment facility, and dying a result of their existing conditions.

But I don't think THAT's really all that large of a number, either.
My DIL is an ER and ICU nurse. It happens a lot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 07, 2021, 11:01:47 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on April 07, 2021, 12:27:05 AM
Iowa removed age and co-morbidity restrictions to the vaccine on April 5. I expected difficulty getting an appointment, but my wife and I already obtained an appointment for April 7 for the Pfizer vaccine. One of my colleagues provided me with an app on my phone to locate the nearest sources of vaccine appointments by zip code. The app is only for Iowa. I have to travel 25 miles one-way as our county is short on vaccine, but that amount of travel is no problem.

The end of elevated risk is now in sight.

(FearlessF, if you are looking for a vaccine and want the app, PM me with your cell phone #.)
got my first Pfizer yesterday at 5pm at the local Hy-Vee Pharmacy
lost my card already
supposed to go back in 3 weeks for the 2nd shot
no weird side effects
can't tell if the soreness in my shoulder is the usual pain I've have for over 6 months or new from the shot.  I'm guessing it's the usual pain that hopefully will go away some day
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 07, 2021, 11:04:21 AM
speaking with a co-worker this morning........... she states that the Federal Government somehow signed off that the vaccine companies such as Pfizer cannot be sued in the future for issues with the vaccine if any arise.

any truth to that?

and so what if the Feds gave them a piece of paper or a handshake.  Does that hold up in court years from now?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 07, 2021, 11:16:35 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 07, 2021, 11:04:21 AM
speaking with a co-worker this morning........... she states that the Federal Government somehow signed off that the vaccine companies such as Pfizer cannot be sued in the future for issues with the vaccine if any arise.

any truth to that?

and so what if the Feds gave them a piece of paper or a handshake.  Does that hold up in court years from now?
That is true- and you sign to acknowledge that before you get the vaccine. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 07, 2021, 11:41:36 AM
does this thing you sign say

if you die dont come running to us

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2021, 12:09:00 PM
Think about it, in a population there will be "side effects" for no reason, folks dying of this or that, with no vaccine.

But, they don't have anyone to sue, in the main.  

Have a heart attack AFTER getting the vaccine and you could normally sue.  The number of suits would be epic with something this vast.  No company could afford that.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 07, 2021, 12:15:26 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 07, 2021, 11:16:35 AM
That is true- and you sign to acknowledge that before you get the vaccine.
does this signature hold up in court?

from what I understand most signatures do not
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2021, 01:26:27 PM
The question is how many lawyers would take up a case on contingency with that signature extant.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 07, 2021, 04:52:39 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 07, 2021, 11:16:35 AM
That is true- and you sign to acknowledge that before you get the vaccine.
is this also true for most other vaccines?
Such as the flu shot or others in the past like the polio vaccine?
I sign for just about any prescription med I pick up at the pharmacy
my co-worker was using this "pass" on lawsuits vs the vaccine companies as a sure sign that the vaccine was dangerous, otherwise the vaccines companies wouldn't have insisted on it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 07, 2021, 05:10:27 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 07, 2021, 11:04:21 AM
speaking with a co-worker this morning........... she states that the Federal Government somehow signed off that the vaccine companies such as Pfizer cannot be sued in the future for issues with the vaccine if any arise.

any truth to that?
Well the vaccine's have been rushed thru w/o complete trials.So who's the Lab Rats
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 07, 2021, 05:11:07 PM
she tried that one as well, shot it down
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 07, 2021, 05:19:18 PM
Shot what down?The theory?Prolly more like a fact it simply hasn't been tested extensively.And all sorts of carnival barkers have been pissing down our backs and tell us it's raining - so flip a coin
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 07, 2021, 05:29:28 PM
from what I've been told, it's been tested as thoroughly as other vaccines.  They saved time by testing the different stages at the same time instead of waiting until the 1st stage was verified and then starting the 2nd stage of testing and so on.

It could all be a huge lie I suppose.

But, Trump's administration would never lie about such a thing, just to get the economy moving again

of course many other countries, even civilized countries in Europe authorized the vaccines before the good ol USA
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2021, 06:14:05 PM
It was tested just fine
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 07, 2021, 08:15:30 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 07, 2021, 12:15:26 PM
does this signature hold up in court?

from what I understand most signatures do not
I have no idea and have no interest in speculating on that question. I was simply answering the original question of do you have to sign a waiver to take this vaccine and I carefully read the waiver which clears Madonna, and the state of Florida of any liability should there be a problem or a negative reaction to the vaccine.

and no I have never signed a waiver for a vaccination before indemnifying the drug maker

I’ll leave that to you and others to speculate on why that is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on April 07, 2021, 08:57:00 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 07, 2021, 10:29:33 AM
SOMETHING has killed a LOT more of us this past 12 months than would be typical or expected.

That increase lines up with reported COVID deaths. 

I'm sure SOME folks really died OF something else and were counted, but it cannot be statistically significant.

Tracking the rises and falls of Excess Deaths matches the rises and falls of Covid Deaths.


(https://i.imgur.com/t4XaZKW.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 07, 2021, 10:21:14 PM
My daughter got her first phizer shot today

She has a slightly sore arm but thats all


She went to the medical center at her appointment time

there were police directing her where to park arrows on the floor showing her how to go from station to station and many people assisting her

after her shot they made her wait for about 15 min before they let her leave

highly organized in her opinion and no line waiting
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2021, 10:17:12 AM
I wonder how long before the FDA approves this disinfectant. Hopefully sooner than later.

NORS for COVID-19 - Sanotize (https://sanotize.com/covid-19/)

It is being sold in Israel and New Zealand, based on what I could find.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 08, 2021, 10:48:50 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 07, 2021, 10:21:14 PM
My daughter got her first phizer shot today

She has a slightly sore arm but thats all


She went to the medical center at her appointment time

there were police directing her where to park arrows on the floor showing her how to go from station to station and many people assisting her

after her shot they made her wait for about 15 min before they let her leave

highly organized in her opinion and no line waiting
I had to wait in line at my first shot.

Then the woman at the pharmacy counter explained that I was standing in the wrong line, and pointed me to a table where there was no line. So that was on me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 08, 2021, 07:25:38 PM
NEW YORK (AP) — The number of U.S. suicides fell nearly 6% last year amid the coronavirus pandemic — the largest annual decline in at least four decades, according to preliminary government data.

Death certificates are still coming in and the count could rise. But officials expect a substantial decline will endure, despite worries that COVID-19 could lead to more suicides.

It is hard to say exactly why suicide deaths dropped so much, but one factor may be a phenomenon seen in the early stages of wars and national disasters, some experts suggested.

“There’s a heroism phase in every disaster period, where we’re banding together and expressing lots of messages of support that we’re in this together,” said Dr. Christine Moutier, chief medical officer of the American Foundation for Suicide Prevention. “You saw that, at least in the early months of the pandemic.”


https://apnews.com/article/pandemics-suicide-prevention-coronavirus-pandemic-d8d9168403baa6660e5125c040b2ae81 (https://apnews.com/article/pandemics-suicide-prevention-coronavirus-pandemic-d8d9168403baa6660e5125c040b2ae81)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 08, 2021, 07:49:52 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 08, 2021, 07:25:38 PM
NEW YORK (AP) — The number of U.S. suicides fell nearly 6% last year amid the coronavirus pandemic — the largest annual decline in at least four decades, according to preliminary government data.

Death certificates are still coming in and the count could rise. But officials expect a substantial decline will endure, despite worries that COVID-19 could lead to more suicides.

It is hard to say exactly why suicide deaths dropped so much, but one factor may be a phenomenon seen in the early stages of wars and national disasters, some experts suggested.

“There’s a heroism phase in every disaster period, where we’re banding together and expressing lots of messages of support that we’re in this together,” said Dr. Christine Moutier, chief medical officer of the American Foundation for Suicide Prevention. “You saw that, at least in the early months of the pandemic.”


https://apnews.com/article/pandemics-suicide-prevention-coronavirus-pandemic-d8d9168403baa6660e5125c040b2ae81 (https://apnews.com/article/pandemics-suicide-prevention-coronavirus-pandemic-d8d9168403baa6660e5125c040b2ae81)
Guess it depends who is counting.

https://www.wkyt.com/2020/12/04/study-reveals-increased-suicide-rates-across-us/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 08, 2021, 08:02:00 PM
perhaps some suicides from the first source were deemed COVID deaths because of a positive test?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on April 09, 2021, 07:03:31 AM
I was simply answering the original question of do you have to sign a waiver to take this vaccine and I carefully read the waiver which clears Madonna,


Pretty shrewd move by Madonna’s legal team.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 09, 2021, 07:04:46 AM
Quote from: Kris60 on April 09, 2021, 07:03:31 AM
I was simply answering the original question of do you have to sign a waiver to take this vaccine and I carefully read the waiver which clears Madonna,


Pretty shrewd move by Madonna’s legal team.
😂😂.  Touché 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 09, 2021, 07:35:17 AM

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 08, 2021, 07:49:52 PM
Guess it depends who is counting.

https://www.wkyt.com/2020/12/04/study-reveals-increased-suicide-rates-across-us/
The weird part is the actual body of the article doesn’t say it. Damn woke-stream media.

(On closer inspection, it does not appear a study said that at all. It references a study in Japan, a study from last June and a local therapist)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 09, 2021, 10:06:43 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 09, 2021, 07:35:17 AM
The weird part is the actual body of the article doesn’t say it. Damn woke-stream media.

(On closer inspection, it does not appear a study said that at all. It references a study in Japan, a study from last June and a local therapist)
I see this more and more now, headlines that are inaccurate in some important way, but meant to get clicks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 09, 2021, 02:02:56 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 09, 2021, 10:06:43 AM
I see this more and more now, headlines that are inaccurate in some important way, but meant to get clicks.
This is an even more odd beast: Sharebate.

It’s clickable, but more than that, it’s something you share when you want to cut against the grain. It’s an impressive little critter in a dark way. The idea that suicide was actually the real danger was immensely popular. So when some people who were alarmist (too alarmist in my mind) got that “I told you so” good news on the suicide rate, someone was going to provide a piece of “nuh-uh” counter content.

There was an interesting BBQ article a few years back that was worth reading, but the presentation was perfect to leverage our geographic tribalism into hate shares.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 09, 2021, 02:28:22 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 09, 2021, 10:06:43 AM
I see this more and more now, headlines that are inaccurate in some important way, but meant to get clicks.
Uhhh, yeah.  Almost exclusively.  It's the actual currency now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 09, 2021, 02:50:50 PM
https://reason.com/2021/04/04/beyond-covid/


Quote
BioNTech, which partnered with Pfizer to develop a COVID-19 mRNA vaccine, is also working on an influenza vaccine but has chiefly returned to its main focus of developing therapeutic mRNA cancer treatments. Just as mRNA vaccines stimulate our immune systems to recognize and attack viruses, researchers are now pursuing mRNA vaccines designed to recognize and attack cancer cells. BioNTech is currently running phase 1 clinical trials for its mRNA treatments aimed at breast, ovarian, melanoma, bladder, and non-small cell lung cancer.

Moderna is developing mRNA tumor treatments, including personalized cancer vaccines that deliver a custom-tailored medicine designed for one patient at a time. The company sequences an individual patient's cancer cells to identify up to 20 different proteins that are not produced in normal cells. Then it creates a vaccine whose mRNAs express the novel cancer proteins, with the goal of training the immune system to identify and attack the patient's tumor.
Per CD's other thread about advances in the next decade, I believe mRNA just got a shot in the arm as one of the key new developments we're going to see over that time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 09, 2021, 03:50:43 PM
Sounds way better than Chemo.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 10, 2021, 07:56:50 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 07, 2021, 05:29:28 PM
of course many other countries, even civilized countries in Europe authorized the vaccines before the good ol USA
seems even other civilized countries in Europe are also discontinuing some of those vaccines also.I can't keep them straight anymore the vaccines or the countries
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 10, 2021, 09:36:55 AM
seems there might be a problem with the Johnson & Johnson vaccine
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 10, 2021, 10:01:08 AM
What the hell is going on in Michigan?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2021, 10:08:42 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 10, 2021, 10:01:08 AM
What the hell is going on in Michigan?
This is going on:


3-2_Capacity_Limits_Fact_Sheet_v11_717921_7.pdf (michigan.gov) (https://www.michigan.gov/documents/coronavirus/3-2_Capacity_Limits_Fact_Sheet_v11_717921_7.pdf)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2021, 10:13:46 AM
Honestly, I think it's the younger, heathy people that are just tired of all of this shit. They are out and about, doing their thing.


(https://i.imgur.com/c8vMvTW.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 10, 2021, 11:41:32 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2021, 10:13:46 AM
Honestly, I think it's the younger, heathy people that are just tired of all of this shit. They are out and about, doing their thing.


(https://i.imgur.com/c8vMvTW.png)
Sure...

But why only Michigan, or why so bad there?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2021, 12:03:52 PM
Revolt. People are sick of the lockdowns. My business partner (co-founder) is from there and has a lot of friends still. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2021, 12:17:22 PM
Also RE Michigan, I've heard chatter that because of the long lockdown period, Michiganders have not moved closer to herd immunity as some of the open states have. Not many people were getting it there. The state ranks #41 in cases/Million population. It ranks #10 in total population.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2021, 12:58:40 PM
I watched the Braves' opener on TV yesterday,  They have views of the crowd outside pregame, 33% capacity, a LOT of folks with no masks in pretty crowded lines.  I think a lot of folks are done with this unless required like in  Kroger.  Fatalism takes over. if I get it I get it.

I just booked two vacations, one to Breckenridge in Oct and one to Hawaii for two weeks in December, a lot of the hotels were fully booked around Christmas.  I think travel is going to see a real surge.  The wife said to cancel anything outside the US.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 10, 2021, 02:38:57 PM
*https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/health-coronavirus-vaccines-skeptic/*
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 10, 2021, 03:39:36 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2021, 12:17:22 PM
Also RE Michigan, I've heard chatter that because of the long lockdown period, Michiganders have not moved closer to herd immunity as some of the open states have. Not many people were getting it there. The state ranks #41 in cases/Million population. It ranks #10 in total population.
That's plausible. I just looked up Maine and New Hampshire, two states also very low on the cases/1M metric, that are Northern and therefore coming out of winter like Michigan, and where I at least perceive they have been more locked down due to their political environment.

They're showing spikes. Not to Michigan levels, but spikes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2021, 04:25:04 PM
It's almost like your area under the curve is going to be very similar....

... unless you are an island locked down.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on April 10, 2021, 05:39:40 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 10, 2021, 10:01:08 AM
What the hell is going on in Michigan?
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 10, 2021, 11:41:32 AM
Sure...

But why only Michigan, or why so bad there?


If you’ve got a moment Yahoo posted a pretty good article about state level political reactions to Michigan’s notable surge. Goes through a few statistics, such as “...Michigan is home to nine of the 10 metro areas with the highest recent case rates.”

Since we’re checking trends by state, take a lock at Virginia. They went through a similar, albeit isolated rise in cases/deaths back in Feb/Mar.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/michigans-virus-cases-control-putting-152045172.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on April 10, 2021, 05:57:34 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 10, 2021, 04:25:04 PM
It's almost like your area under the curve is going to be very similar....

... unless you are an island locked down.


Also, should be interesting to see what the lethality of this wave looks like as people have access to vaccinations
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2021, 06:58:07 PM
Georgia has come WAY down and has flattened out around 1,000 per day new reported cases.  That is pretty good, relatively.  It's a battle between vaccinations and new infections and variants.  Everyone over 16 now can get vaccinated, or at least try and get an appt.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2021, 04:45:30 PM
Uptick in Florida. Spring break in action.

(https://i.imgur.com/nTOt4lS.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 12, 2021, 12:47:43 PM
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-0/s600x600/172438584_2794072237489107_7426042410427395126_n.jpg?_nc_cat=103&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=AbvslSctaSsAX-kublO&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&tp=7&oh=f4a6d6a09bf2eed679bf3011e585ccdb&oe=6099EA6E)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 12, 2021, 05:59:47 PM
Texas cases and deaths still trending down steadily since their peaks in late January.  Not much evidence of any Spring Break spikes so far state-wide. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on April 13, 2021, 07:48:04 AM
Government recommending pause of J&J vaccine due to blood clots in 6 women
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 13, 2021, 12:48:19 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/Y5gAVA3.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 13, 2021, 12:54:03 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on April 13, 2021, 07:48:04 AM
Government recommending pause of J&J vaccine due to blood clots in 6 women
This isn't good, J&J was set to become the bulk of available vaccines over the coming months.

I'm signed up for Moderna #1 on Friday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 13, 2021, 01:16:28 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 13, 2021, 12:54:03 PM
This isn't good, J&J was set to become the bulk of available vaccines over the coming months.

I'm signed up for Moderna #1 on Friday.
better to find out now then later
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 13, 2021, 01:31:09 PM
Glad I ended up with Moderna. About a day or two after my wife found me the appointment for the Moderna, she learned that she'd be able to get me J&J if I wanted it instead. I preferred Pfizer or Moderna, so because I already had an appt, I didn't want to do J&J. But if I was still in purgatory wondering when I'd be able to get the others, I would have done J&J in a heartbeat. 

So it all worked out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on April 13, 2021, 01:40:24 PM
Here's what we and other nations can hope for once we get past the wave(s) of variants - Cases and Deaths have plummeted toward zero once they weathered their variant: 

(https://i.imgur.com/SM57zx8.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 13, 2021, 02:26:48 PM
Notably, Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby has said the conference had “no jurisdiction” to mandate vaccines for collegiate athletics, and that appears to be the thinking most conferences will follow. Still, the advantages afforded to NBA players would seemingly carry over for athletes in other team sports as well.

“We haven’t gotten any direction on vaccinations yet,” Husker head coach Scott Frost said when asked on Monday. “I’ll wait on more advice from our leadership here at the university and our athletic department and from the Big Ten before I comment much.”

According to Chris Dunker’s reporting for the Lincoln Journal Star, the larger University of Nebraska-Lincoln will not mandate vaccines, only encourage them.

Frost feels the same will eventually be said of his team.

“This is just my opinion but the kids on our team should probably be last in line for something like that just because of how young and healthy they are,” he said.

“I assume at some point the vaccinations will be available for our guys. I don’t think I’m going to make them mandatory, I don’t think that’s right, but hopefully we’ll get an opportunity to get some of our guys vaccinated if they want to.”


https://hailvarsity.com/football/without-word-from-big-ten-frost-says-vaccines-are-voluntary-for-nebraska-football/ (https://hailvarsity.com/football/without-word-from-big-ten-frost-says-vaccines-are-voluntary-for-nebraska-football/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 13, 2021, 02:52:28 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on April 13, 2021, 07:48:04 AM
Government recommending pause of J&J vaccine due to blood clots in 6 women
The low rate part is interesting, but better safe than sorry, I suppose. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2021, 05:06:37 PM
How often do similar clots occur in folks that were not vaccinated?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 13, 2021, 05:13:34 PM
more than 1 in a million?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 13, 2021, 05:18:12 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 13, 2021, 05:13:34 PM
more than 1 in a million?
So you're telling me there's a chance?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on April 13, 2021, 11:36:12 PM
Yeah, seems the J&J pause is going to solidify greater numbers of vaccine skeptics.    I heard a MD rant today about how based on the number of folks with J&J vaccine and the known blood clot instances, the general population has higher rates of blood clots than this known sampling.

I got shot 2 today, we'll see how things roll in the morning.  Pfizer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 13, 2021, 11:53:32 PM
So now Dr Fauci and the CDC is saying even if youve had your shots you should not get into large crowds and still wear your mask.  Why???

Do they know something about the effectiveness of the vaccine they arent telling the public

Thats a little alarming
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 13, 2021, 11:54:58 PM
do they know something?

HELL NO
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on April 14, 2021, 12:11:24 AM
Fauci has officially turned into the Head Coach that gets tuned out.   There are of course a myriad of reasons for this, some of which have nothing to do with his statements/posture at all, but he certainly has not helped himself in that respect.

It's behind a paywall (WSJ) but had a really long piece few weeks back on how 'open' schools have operated in class since last August  and was quite good on the subject of what they have learned.  Some really good candor and takes on the 'pods' (something my kids' schools do) and how effective they've been towards really mitigating large scale shut down of classes, how the early pre-occupation with cleaning surfaces and such are superfluous,  lunch time being a higher risk environment compared to in classroom.  Teachers/admin being more susceptible to spread at the three schools which were subject of story.   Teachers lounges being a bad spot.  

Happy to see email from our Elementary/middle school district declaring intentions of remaining full on open again this fall.   Curious to see how the 12-15 vaccine plans play out.  Our local high school hasn't committed yet (currently in a hybrid mode) which has such mixed views.  Kids mostly like it, parents really sick of it, with some exception (neighbor mom says her daughter is learning how to manage time like a college kid).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on April 14, 2021, 02:14:52 AM
Fauci is a healthcare expert. As such he is conservative about his advice, and the use of facemasks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 14, 2021, 09:58:33 AM
Fauci isn't a statesman and is particularly ill-suited for messaging. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 14, 2021, 10:02:00 AM
he's no worse than most statesmen at delivering a message
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 14, 2021, 10:05:19 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 14, 2021, 10:02:00 AM
he's no worse than most statesmen at delivering a message
Good Heavens, no.  He's much worse than most. He's actually creating Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt among the public about agents and processes that are scientifically sound.  He's undermining the "follow the science" at every turn.

He's really quite awful.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 14, 2021, 10:10:13 AM
would you rather Biden or Trump were doing the messaging?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 14, 2021, 10:11:48 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 14, 2021, 10:10:13 AM
would you rather Biden or Trump were doing the messaging?

Either, honestly.  At least neither one of them are scientists, who undermine the science at every turn.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 14, 2021, 10:22:33 AM
I mean, isn't Fauci supposed to be encouraging people to get the vaccine?  Isn't that the whole point here?

Meanwhile, here's a statement Trump made on the subject:

“I would recommend it, and I would recommend it to a lot of people that don’t want to get it, and a lot of those people voted for me, frankly,” he said during a Fox News interview (https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-urges-all-americans-to-get-covid-vaccine-its-a-safe-vaccine) Tuesday night.

“We have our freedoms and we have to live by that, and I agree with that also,” he said. “But it is a great vaccine (https://www.webmd.com/children/vaccines/ss/slideshow-vaccine-preventable-diseases). It is a safe vaccine (https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/default.htm), and it is something that works.”

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2021, 10:45:36 AM
Better late than never, I guess...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 14, 2021, 10:50:44 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2021, 10:45:36 AM
Better late than never, I guess...
Huh???   He was doing everything in his power to create the vaccines and bring them to market.  

meanwhile- the opposite side was doing everything they could to cast doubt on the vaccines being in reach, and being trustworthy.  

This is not debatable. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on April 14, 2021, 11:04:54 AM
Moderna Round 2 a little while ago. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 14, 2021, 11:07:45 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2021, 10:45:36 AM
Better late than never, I guess...
there's that clear concise message we were all waiting for!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 14, 2021, 11:08:19 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2021, 10:45:36 AM
Better late than never, I guess...

Yeah, like HB said, if you're talking about the vaccines, then I can't agree.  He was pushing for them all along.  You might (and have :) ) argue that ANY president would have done the same, and that might be true.  But what we know for sure, is that Trump did it.

Now, did he do everything he could have to promote science-based health and safety initiatives throughout the pandemic?  That part is certainly debatable.

But really his politics are neither here nor there-- I was specifically pointing out an example of GOOD statesmanship with respect to encouraging the public to get the COVID vaccine, in direct contrast to the kinds of things Fauci routinely says.

There are probably some examples of good statesmanship on the subject from Biden as well, I just haven't heard any of them because the MSM don't vivisect him for every statement he makes.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 14, 2021, 11:11:53 AM
NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J., February 27, 2021 – Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) (the Company) today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has issued Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for its single-dose COVID-19 vaccine, developed by the Janssen Pharmaceutical Companies of Johnson & Johnson, to prevent COVID-19 in individuals 18 years of age and older.

This decision was based on the totality of scientific evidence, including data from the Phase 3 ENSEMBLE study that demonstrated the vaccine was 85 percent effective in preventing severe disease across all regions studied, and showed protection against COVID-19 related hospitalization and death, beginning 28 days after vaccination.

The terms of the EUA allow use of the vaccine while more data are gathered. The Company plans to file for a Biologics License Application (BLA) with the FDA later in 2021.

“This milestone follows a year of incredible work by our dedicated teams and unprecedented collaboration with health leaders around the world – all of whom shared a goal of bringing a single-shot vaccine to the public,” said Alex Gorsky, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Johnson & Johnson. “We will do everything we can to help bring this pandemic to an end, in the United States and throughout the world.”


_________________________________________________ ___________

so, J&J vaccine was authorized for use during the Trump Admin!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 14, 2021, 11:22:20 AM
The latest Vaccination Stats for the US

(https://i.imgur.com/LPVpfjo.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 14, 2021, 11:37:36 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 14, 2021, 11:22:20 AM
The latest Vaccination Stats for the US

(https://i.imgur.com/LPVpfjo.png)
I'm not sure I understand how the blue line could ever go DOWN?

The Y-axis is unlabeled but from the magnitude of the scale, I'm assuming this is a total-shots-in-arms metric, rather than a weekly rate of injection.
So what happened back on 3/15, and on 4/12?  Did people get UN-shot?

What am I missing?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2021, 11:38:56 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 14, 2021, 10:50:44 AM
Huh???  He was doing everything in his power to create the vaccines and bring them to market. 

meanwhile- the opposite side was doing everything they could to cast doubt on the vaccines being in reach, and being trustworthy. 
Not going to address this here, because it will get VERY political, but if you want my take on this here, ask me in the "In other news" thread...

Quote from: utee94 on April 14, 2021, 11:08:19 AM
Yeah, like HB said, if you're talking about the vaccines, then I can't agree.  He was pushing for them all along.  You might (and have :) ) argue that ANY president would have done the same, and that might be true.  But what we know for sure, is that Trump did it.

Now, did he do everything he could have to promote science-based health and safety initiatives throughout the pandemic?  That part is certainly debatable.

But really his politics are neither here nor there-- I was specifically pointing out an example of GOOD statesmanship with respect to encouraging the public to get the COVID vaccine, in direct contrast to the kinds of things Fauci routinely says.

There are probably some examples of good statesmanship on the subject from Biden as well, I just haven't heard any of them because the MSM don't vivisect him for every statement he makes.
Same with this. If I say what I want to say to this in this thread, it'll get deleted. If we want to discuss in the other thread, I'll let you know what I really think lol...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2021, 11:43:15 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 14, 2021, 11:37:36 AM
I'm not sure I understand how the blue line could ever go DOWN?

The Y-axis is unlabeled but from the magnitude of the scale, I'm assuming this is a total-shots-in-arms metric, rather than a weekly rate of injection.
So what happened back on 3/15, and on 4/12?  Did people get UN-shot?

What am I missing?
Yeah, I don't understand the graph at all. 

What COULD have happened is that some of those who had one shot were converted into people who had two shots... Which would explain how the number could go down. But those who have gotten two shots should be a superset of those who have gotten one, which means the line of those who have gotten one shot should have ALWAYS been above the two-shot line. 

This graph is a stupid way to present data. The question shouldn't be one shot or two shots, because we have J&J which is a one-shot vaccine and Pfizer/Moderna which are two-shot. The better way to present it would be partially vaccinated as one line and fully vaccinated as the other line. If someone gets a single shot of J&J, or two shots of Pfizer/Moderna, they count as fully vaccinated. If they only have one shot of Pfizer/Moderna, they count as partially-vaccinated. With that, the partially-vaccinated line will always be equal or above the fully-vaccinated line, and it gives you a MUCH clearer picture of the situation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 14, 2021, 11:48:03 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2021, 11:38:56 AM
Not going to address this here, because it will get VERY political, but if you want my take on this here, ask me in the "In other news" thread...
Same with this. If I say what I want to say to this in this thread, it'll get deleted. If we want to discuss in the other thread, I'll let you know what I really think lol...
You can respond-- right here-- if you think I'm incorrect when I say that Trump pushed for, and advocated, the vaccines, all along.  That's not a political discussion, if we stay way from underlying motives and party platforms.

You can also respond-- right here-- if you think I'm incorrect when I say that Trump's statement of support for the vaccines is MUCH more encouraging than the average, common statements we get from Fauci, some examples of which are on the preceding pages of this thread.

I'm not throwing a Trump rally here, I'm showing the sharp contrast between good statesmanship, and poor statesmanship, when the alleged goal of the two speakers is to produce the exact same outcome.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 14, 2021, 11:49:59 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 14, 2021, 11:37:36 AM
I'm not sure I understand how the blue line could ever go DOWN?

The Y-axis is unlabeled but from the magnitude of the scale, I'm assuming this is a total-shots-in-arms metric, rather than a weekly rate of injection.
So what happened back on 3/15, and on 4/12?  Did people get UN-shot?

What am I missing?
The one shot will go down if more of those get their 2nd shot then get their first shot that day

yes the Y axis is number of vaccinations
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 14, 2021, 11:50:13 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2021, 11:43:15 AM
Yeah, I don't understand the graph at all.

What COULD have happened is that some of those who had one shot were converted into people who had two shots... Which would explain how the number could go down. But those who have gotten two shots should be a superset of those who have gotten one, which means the line of those who have gotten one shot should have ALWAYS been above the two-shot line.

This graph is a stupid way to present data. The question shouldn't be one shot or two shots, because we have J&J which is a one-shot vaccine and Pfizer/Moderna which are two-shot. The better way to present it would be partially vaccinated as one line and fully vaccinated as the other line. If someone gets a single shot of J&J, or two shots of Pfizer/Moderna, they count as fully vaccinated. If they only have one shot of Pfizer/Moderna, they count as partially-vaccinated. With that, the partially-vaccinated line will always be equal or above the fully-vaccinated line, and it gives you a MUCH clearer picture of the situation.

Exactement.

And that's how I've seen it presented elsewhere, which is why this graph confused me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 14, 2021, 11:57:06 AM
The graph simply show a point in time of those who have only gotten 1 shot vs those who have had both shots

pretty simple

J & J data is not included so feel free to add that 6,000,000 or so to the two shot line

come on guys its not rocket science sheeesh
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2021, 12:02:05 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 14, 2021, 11:48:03 AM
You can respond-- right here-- if you think I'm incorrect when I say that Trump pushed for, and advocated, the vaccines, all along.  That's not a political discussion, if we stay way from underlying motives and party platforms.

You can also respond-- right here-- if you think I'm incorrect when I say that Trump's statement of support for the vaccines is MUCH more encouraging than the average, common statements we get from Fauci, some examples of which are on the preceding pages of this thread.

I'm not throwing a Trump rally here, I'm showing the sharp contrast between good statesmanship, and poor statesmanship, when the alleged goal of the two speakers is to produce the exact same outcome.
Yes, Trump pushed for the vaccine, all along. Agreed. 

Once it was clear he was not going to remain in power, I think things took a different turn. In December, politicians of all stripes [including Pence] were getting publicly vaccinated on camera to show that they believed in the vaccine and were wiling to take it. Fauci did as well. Trump got it in secret at the White House in January, and it didn't come out until March or so that he and Melania had even been vaccinated at all. 

The group most skeptical of the vaccine, as demonstrated by multiple polls, were white Republicans, i.e. Trump supporters. Having the power and platform that he has, he remained extremely silent on the vaccine other than trumpeting that we wouldn't have had it without him. He didn't encourage anyone to actually get the shot until late February, as far as I can tell (https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20210317/trump-urges-americans-get-covid-vaccine). 

So if you're going to call waiting two+ months to tell people to take the vaccine, when your own supporters are some of the biggest skeptics of it, who obviously look up to you, "good statesmanship", I don't know what to tell you. Fauci got jabbed on camera and has been telling people ever since to get the vaccine, but Trump supporters don't trust him. Trump could have done so much more if he was in front of this while he was still President, rather than late Feb / early Mar.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 14, 2021, 12:05:39 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2021, 12:02:05 PM
Yes, Trump pushed for the vaccine, all along. Agreed.

Once it was clear he was not going to remain in power, I think things took a different turn. In December, politicians of all stripes [including Pence] were getting publicly vaccinated on camera to show that they believed in the vaccine and were wiling to take it. Fauci did as well. Trump got it in secret at the White House in January, and it didn't come out until March or so that he and Melania had even been vaccinated at all.

The group most skeptical of the vaccine, as demonstrated by multiple polls, were white Republicans, i.e. Trump supporters. Having the power and platform that he has, he remained extremely silent on the vaccine other than trumpeting that we wouldn't have had it without him. He didn't encourage anyone to actually get the shot until late February, as far as I can tell (https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20210317/trump-urges-americans-get-covid-vaccine).

So if you're going to call waiting two+ months to tell people to take the vaccine, when your own supporters are some of the biggest skeptics of it, who obviously look up to you, "good statesmanship", I don't know what to tell you. Fauci got jabbed on camera and has been telling people ever since to get the vaccine, but Trump supporters don't trust him. Trump could have done so much more if he was in front of this while he was still President, rather than late Feb / early Mar.

I'm pointing out specific statements.  That represent statesmanship.

LAst I checked, actions are not statements.  So they're not really part of statesmanship.

I do agree that Trump going radio silent from DEC-FEB was poor leadership.  And there are numerous examples of THAT for sure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2021, 12:17:11 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 14, 2021, 12:05:39 PM
I'm pointing out specific statements.  That represent statesmanship.

LAst I checked, actions are not statements.  So they're not really part of statesmanship.

I do agree that Trump going radio silent from DEC-FEB was poor leadership.  And there are numerous examples of THAT for sure.
You don't think actions are part of statesmanship?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 14, 2021, 12:23:51 PM
I read Trumps silence at the end due to the fact he was being stupidly impeached and he was probably following his lawyers advice



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on April 14, 2021, 12:24:37 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 13, 2021, 11:53:32 PM
So now Dr Fauci and the CDC is saying even if youve had your shots you should not get into large crowds and still wear your mask.  Why???

Do they know something about the effectiveness of the vaccine they arent telling the public

Thats a little alarming
No they are just being over the top as they have been during most of this pandemic.  Yes I know, it is just my opinion which many of you reject.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on April 14, 2021, 12:26:09 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 14, 2021, 10:10:13 AM
would you rather Biden or Trump were doing the messaging?
Yes, either of them.  Fauci has been the problem from the beginning with his pronouncements. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on April 14, 2021, 12:27:09 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 14, 2021, 11:07:45 AM
there's that clear concise message we were all waiting for!!!
Then you haven't been listening
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 14, 2021, 12:27:18 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on April 14, 2021, 12:24:37 PM
No they are just being over the top as they have been during most of this pandemic.  Yes I know, it is just my opinion which many of you reject.
Im not rejecting your opinion 

Just saying it makes no sense to say vaccinated people should still be careful and to continue to wear masks etc
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on April 14, 2021, 12:30:10 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 14, 2021, 12:27:18 PM
Im not rejecting your opinion

Just saying it makes no sense to say vaccinated people should still be careful and to continue to wear masks etc
I agree 100%. One of the major problems with the handling of the pandemic from the beginning has been Fauci and he is just continuing in that vein with every statement he continues to make.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 14, 2021, 12:38:17 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2021, 12:17:11 PM
You don't think actions are part of statesmanship?
Not really.  They're part of statecraft for sure, though.

And one more time, I'm pointing out a single example of GOOD statesmanship, in contrast to several examples on preceding pages of BAD statesmanship.  If it were unique and unusual for Fauci to undermine his own objectives, I wouldn't bother.  But this is a consistent pattern with him.  I'm pointing out the kinds of things that can be stated that are actually likely to achieve his objectives, as opposed to things he ends up saying, which are poorly stated in general and downright baffling at times.

You won't and can't paint me into a corner of rallying for Trump.  But there can be no doubt that his statement that I quoted, was far more encouraging, than Fauci's typical commentary.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 14, 2021, 12:38:38 PM
I don't see any harm in being careful and wearing a mask.

now, I haven't had a mask on in a few weeks, but..........
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 14, 2021, 12:45:35 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 14, 2021, 12:38:38 PM
I don't see any harm in being careful and wearing a mask.

now, I haven't had a mask on in a few weeks, but..........

As you know, you've just made the point.

I continue to be baffled by some of the things I hear about how we're going to get out of this pandemic and get back to normal life.  How we're going to get the kids back in school, when my kids have been in school since October.  How we're going to be able to have small backyard family BBQs by the 4th of July, when that's what we did LAST year in the middle of the pandemic with no vaccines in sight. And how we're going to be allowed to travel, when folks have been doing that since last May.

And how we're still going to need to wear masks and avoid large gatherings even after we get vaccinated, because.... ?????

It makes absolutely zero sense, and it undermines the actual goal, which is to get people vaccinated and get things back to normal.

Not a "new normal."  There is no such thing.  One way or another, people will get all the way back to normal, real normal, old normal-- regardless of what their government officials believe they are entitled to "allow" the public.

So the government should probably get on board with proper messaging to help that happen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2021, 12:57:43 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 14, 2021, 10:05:19 AM
Good Heavens, no.  He's much worse than most. He's actually creating Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt among the public about agents and processes that are scientifically sound.  He's undermining the "follow the science" at every turn.

He's really quite awful.



Deep State is deep.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 14, 2021, 01:00:46 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 14, 2021, 12:45:35 PM
As you know, you've just made the point.



So the government should probably get on board with proper messaging to help that happen.

obviously and unfortunately, we won't get proper messaging from our so called, "Leaders", the government
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 14, 2021, 01:12:21 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 14, 2021, 01:00:46 PM
obviously and unfortunately, we won't get proper messaging from our so called, "Leaders", the government
The fact that our elected government representatives are viewed by so many as "leaders" rather than "public servants" is just one of our many, many problems.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 14, 2021, 01:16:20 PM
agreed

they shouldn't be given a podium and a microphone
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2021, 02:12:38 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 14, 2021, 12:38:17 PM
And one more time, I'm pointing out a single example of GOOD statesmanship, in contrast to several examples on preceding pages of BAD statesmanship.  If it were unique and unusual for Fauci to undermine his own objectives, I wouldn't bother.  But this is a consistent pattern with him.  I'm pointing out the kinds of things that can be stated that are actually likely to achieve his objectives, as opposed to things he ends up saying, which are poorly stated in general and downright baffling at times.

You won't and can't paint me into a corner of rallying for Trump.  But there can be no doubt that his statement that I quoted, was far more encouraging, than Fauci's typical commentary.
Fauci has been pretty consistent, with the exception of the VERY early stage re: masks, and at that point there probably wasn't enough community spread to justify masks yet anyway.

The problem with Fauci is that he's been consistently dour. There's no end game being proposed. That bothers me. 

Quote from: utee94 on April 14, 2021, 12:45:35 PM
As you know, you've just made the point.

I continue to be baffled by some of the things I hear about how we're going to get out of this pandemic and get back to normal life.  How we're going to get the kids back in school, when my kids have been in school since October.  How we're going to be able to have small backyard family BBQs by the 4th of July, when that's what we did LAST year in the middle of the pandemic with no vaccines in sight. And how we're going to be allowed to travel, when folks have been doing that since last May.

And how we're still going to need to wear masks and avoid large gatherings even after we get vaccinated, because.... ?????

It makes absolutely zero sense, and it undermines the actual goal, which is to get people vaccinated and get things back to normal.

Not a "new normal."  There is no such thing.  One way or another, people will get all the way back to normal, real normal, old normal-- regardless of what their government officials believe they are entitled to "allow" the public.

So the government should probably get on board with proper messaging to help that happen.
Agreed. By middle of summer, people [who haven't yet] will have given up on masks and distancing. Everyone who wants a vaccine by then will have one, and those who choose not to do so have chosen their path and have to live with the consequences.

But gov't bureaucrats in Washington [and Sacramento] think people are actually listening and doing what they say, when we've already started to say screw it and more and more will do so as soon as they're fully vaccinated. They just don't get it, and they're super-cautious by nature. So they already have lost the pulse of the situation.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 14, 2021, 02:19:25 PM
some folks that have had the vaccine will still be wearing masks

the folks that don't get the vaccine are the same people that don't wear masks

regardless of the messaging

just two different ways of thinking

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on April 14, 2021, 03:03:36 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 14, 2021, 12:45:35 PM
As you know, you've just made the point.

I continue to be baffled by some of the things I hear about how we're going to get out of this pandemic and get back to normal life.  How we're going to get the kids back in school, when my kids have been in school since October.  How we're going to be able to have small backyard family BBQs by the 4th of July, when that's what we did LAST year in the middle of the pandemic with no vaccines in sight. And how we're going to be allowed to travel, when folks have been doing that since last May.

And how we're still going to need to wear masks and avoid large gatherings even after we get vaccinated, because.... ?????

It makes absolutely zero sense, and it undermines the actual goal, which is to get people vaccinated and get things back to normal.

Not a "new normal."  There is no such thing.  One way or another, people will get all the way back to normal, real normal, old normal-- regardless of what their government officials believe they are entitled to "allow" the public.

So the government should probably get on board with proper messaging to help that happen.
My kids have been back in school since fall '20 and about a month ago they removed the mask requirement so they're not even wearing masks anymore.  And guess what?  There are no more COVID cases now than there were before they did away with the mask mandate.  Because kids don't wear masks around each other when they're not in school.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2021, 06:38:29 PM
I know many of you have disagreed with my stances on certain aspects of lockdowns/etc...

I just want to state, unambiguously, that I am 100% opposed to any sort of "vaccine passport" or anything of the like. 

In about 2 months, anyone who wants a vaccine will have had one, and anyone who doesn't want one is playing with their own life and has to accept the consequences. 

But I do NOT support the idea that we all must "show our papers" in order to return to life as usual. 

2-3 months from now, it's going to be normal, no matter what anyone in Washington thinks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 14, 2021, 07:20:46 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2021, 06:38:29 PM
I know many of you have disagreed with my stances on certain aspects of lockdowns/etc...

I just want to state, unambiguously, that I am 100% opposed to any sort of "vaccine passport" or anything of the like.

In about 2 months, anyone who wants a vaccine will have had one, and anyone who doesn't want one is playing with their own life and has to accept the consequences.

But I do NOT support the idea that we all must "show our papers" in order to return to life as usual.

2-3 months from now, it's going to be normal, no matter what anyone in Washington thinks.
well said


I couldnt agree more
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2021, 08:20:36 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2021, 06:38:29 PM
I know many of you have disagreed with my stances on certain aspects of lockdowns/etc...

I just want to state, unambiguously, that I am 100% opposed to any sort of "vaccine passport" or anything of the like.

In about 2 months, anyone who wants a vaccine will have had one, and anyone who doesn't want one is playing with their own life and has to accept the consequences.

But I do NOT support the idea that we all must "show our papers" in order to return to life as usual.

2-3 months from now, it's going to be normal, no matter what anyone in Washington thinks.
I'll drink to that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 14, 2021, 09:03:01 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 14, 2021, 01:16:20 PM
agreed

they shouldn't be given a podium and a microphone
They should be given a fair trial followed by a 1st class hanging.Or a good dutch rub for sure
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 14, 2021, 09:07:04 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2021, 12:02:05 PM
Yes, Trump pushed for the vaccine, all along. Agreed.

Once it was clear he was not going to remain in power, I think things took a different turn. In December, politicians of all stripes [including Pence] were getting publicly vaccinated on camera to show that they believed in the vaccine and were wiling to take it. Fauci did as well. Trump got it in secret at the White House in January, and it didn't come out until March or so that he and Melania had even been vaccinated at all.

The group most skeptical of the vaccine, as demonstrated by multiple polls, were white Republicans, i.e. Trump supporters. Having the power and platform that he has, he remained extremely silent on the vaccine other than trumpeting that we wouldn't have had it without him. He didn't encourage anyone to actually get the shot until late February, as far as I can tell (https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20210317/trump-urges-americans-get-covid-vaccine).

So if you're going to call waiting two+ months to tell people to take the vaccine, when your own supporters are some of the biggest skeptics of it, who obviously look up to you, "good statesmanship", I don't know what to tell you. Fauci got jabbed on camera and has been telling people ever since to get the vaccine, but Trump supporters don't trust him. Trump could have done so much more if he was in front of this while he was still President, rather than late Feb / early Mar.
Hogwash.
I could attach 30 articles quickly - the content of which are direct quotes from spring right up to roughly early November.  Each and every high level person, of NOT the Republican Party, completely bashing the credibility of the then under development vaccines.  Attacking it! Completely and INTENTIONALLY working to erode the public faith- for their own gain. It happened. It went on for MONTHS.  You can’t deny it or wash it away.

And that stuff about polls.  Who are you kidding. It took MONTHS for a good segment of the people  to grow skeptical.  And November events increased the mistrust of the so called leaders and especially the incredibly partisan media.
Legitimate questions about the vaccines that arise after they were rolled out, were censored out by a certain party- and their mouthpiece- the media. That happened. It is not debatable

you can try to make a case to justify it/ And I’m sure you will, but you absolutely cannot deny it with a straight face.

As for a vaccine passport- well for my own personal reasons I got vaccinated as soon as it was possible. But anybody who tries the vaccine passport bullshit at any place I work or do business will never see me again. It would be an enormous mistake.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 14, 2021, 09:09:33 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2021, 06:38:29 PM

2-3 months from now, it's going to be normal, no matter what anyone in Washington thinks.
Washington will never be normal
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 14, 2021, 09:10:54 PM
Oh.  One more thing. 

Faucci and the CDC have no credibility.   They have performed hideously and the lack of competence grows each day. 

Still requiring masks after vaccinations?  And you wonder why people just ignore them or laugh at them. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 14, 2021, 09:13:21 PM
There are certain immunizations that are required for travel to and from various countries.  I could see the C19 vaccine being added to those.

And there are certain immunizations that are required for attendance at various schools throughout the academic hierarchy.   I could see the C19 vaccine being added to those.

But a domestic vaccine passport within the USA is going to be a complete non-starter.  It's likely not even legal and would absolutely be challenged in court by the "open" states.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 14, 2021, 09:28:06 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 14, 2021, 09:13:21 PM
There are certain immunizations that are required for travel to and from various countries.  I could see the C19 vaccine being added to those.

And there are certain immunizations that are required for attendance at various schools throughout the academic hierarchy.  I could see the C19 vaccine being added to those.

But a domestic vaccine passport within the USA is going to be a complete non-starter.  It's likely not even legal and would absolutely be challenged in court by the "open" states.


You are probably right about non starter.  But then again- I remember certain people on this forum insisting that some of these crazy ideas being passed around, like statehood for Washington DC, or non-starters and as you can see it’s moving closer to reality every day
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on April 15, 2021, 09:18:27 AM
2nd shot +24 hours. I haven't had a hangover this bad in years, despite not having anything alcoholic to drink yesterday. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 15, 2021, 09:29:28 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 14, 2021, 09:10:54 PM
Oh.  One more thing.

Faucci and the CDC have no credibility.  They have performed hideously and the lack of competence grows each day.

Still requiring masks after vaccinations?  And you wonder why people just ignore them or laugh at them.
requiring masks and suggesting that masks are a good practice are two different things


Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 15, 2021, 09:31:27 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on April 15, 2021, 09:18:27 AM
2nd shot +24 hours. I haven't had a hangover this bad in years, despite not having anything alcoholic to drink yesterday.
I had a few shots of Sambuca last night while drinking Budweisers for 5 hours

just a normal hangover this morning
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on April 15, 2021, 10:19:05 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 15, 2021, 09:31:27 AM
I had a few shots of Sambuca last night while drinking Budweisers for 5 hours

just a normal hangover this morning
I felt better after drinking a heavy mixture of Bud Fat and Sharkwater in Lincoln. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 15, 2021, 10:46:25 AM
that's rough

I have experienced that feeling
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 15, 2021, 10:52:49 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 15, 2021, 09:29:28 AM
requiring masks and suggesting that masks are a good practice are two different things


Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
Technically true,  but even the suggestion of wearing a mask post-vaccine is counterproductive to the presumed desired outcome.

The people that urgently want the vaccine are already getting it.

The people that are never going to get it, are never going to get it.

But the people on the fence-- the people that need to be convinced-- are a lot less likely to bother, if you suggest to them that even after they get it, they can't get back to their normal lives. Because for them, that's the only real point to vaccination.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2021, 12:34:02 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on April 14, 2021, 09:28:06 PM
You are probably right about non starter.  But then again- I remember certain people on this forum insisting that some of these crazy ideas being passed around, like statehood for Washington DC, or non-starters and as you can see it’s moving closer to reality every day
A lot of things "move closer to reality" and never make it there.  Georgia remains flat on new cases, fortunately.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 15, 2021, 12:49:08 PM
@Honestbuckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=37)

Enough.  I'll take the blame for bringing up the former president's name on this thread, but for the most part we were discussing things in a non-partisan way until you chimed in.

Take it to the politics forum at the bottom of the Forums page, or take it to the In The News thread where the gracious owners of this message board appear to be willing to allow political talk.

Keep it off this thread.

Thank You For Your Support

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 15, 2021, 04:57:00 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/pfizer-ceo-says-third-covid-vaccine-dose-likely-needed-within-12-months.html


Quote
Pfizer (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/PFE) CEO Albert Bourla said people will “likely” need a third dose of a Covid-19 (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/covid-live-updates-fauci-health-officials-testify-jj-vaccine.html) vaccine within 12 months of getting fully vaccinated. 

Bourla said it’s possible people will need to get vaccinated against the coronavirus annually.

“We need to see what would be the sequence, and for how often we need to do that, that remains to be seen,” he told CNBC’s Bertha Coombs during an event with CVS Health. “A likely scenario is that there will be likely a need for a third dose, somewhere between six and 12 months and then from there, there will be an annual revaccination, but all of that needs to be confirmed. And again, the variants will play a key role.”
“It is extremely important to suppress the pool of people that can be susceptible to the virus,” Bourla said.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 15, 2021, 05:12:47 PM
I'm sure he is hoping to stay in business and make money annually 

I hope he's wrong, but I'll take a flu shot and a COVID shot annually if it keeps me from getting sick
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 15, 2021, 06:04:58 PM
Interesting that Pfizer would announce this possibility before the initial vaccinations are complete

Need to see what Moderna says

will this cause everybody to get a Moderna vaccination instead of pfizer
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 15, 2021, 06:20:35 PM
Moderna saying similar: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/14/covid-vaccine-moderna-hopes-to-have-booster-shot-ready-by-the-fall-says-ceo.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on April 15, 2021, 06:33:14 PM
I wonder how necessary that really is - it feels like the focus should be on reducing symptoms instead hoping for perpetual immunity. That seems much more expensive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 15, 2021, 07:59:38 PM
this kinda goes with keeping up with mutations from year to year

this makes me wonder if this is a ploy to fall in line with Facui and the CDC

about always having to be careful even if you had the vaccinations
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on April 15, 2021, 08:55:03 PM
56 hours later post shot two, feel fine.  About 10 hrs of aches was about it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 15, 2021, 08:58:54 PM
amazing how some folks have almost nothing wrong after the shots and some have to declare defcon 2
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 15, 2021, 09:03:32 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 15, 2021, 07:59:38 PM
this kinda goes with keeping up with mutations from year to year

this makes me wonder if this is a ploy to fall in line with Facui and the CDC

about always having to be careful even if you had the vaccinations
It's weird though... This doesn't mutate like the flu. So it doesn't make sense that we necessarily need annual boosters. 

Given the situation with this, I can see that there may be a necessity to vaccinate to the South African variant and potentially other variants that might occur between between now and the time of the booster...

But I don't see why we shouldn't be able to get ahead of this, given the slower mutation rate than influenza, and get rid of it in a year...

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 15, 2021, 09:13:23 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 15, 2021, 09:03:32 PM
It's weird though... This doesn't mutate like the flu. So it doesn't make sense that we necessarily need annual boosters.

Given the situation with this, I can see that there may be a necessity to vaccinate to the South African variant and potentially other variants that might occur between between now and the time of the booster...

But I don't see why we shouldn't be able to get ahead of this, given the slower mutation rate than influenza, and get rid of it in a year...


makes one wonder about a profit motive
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 15, 2021, 09:41:17 PM
I'm not wondering

I'm convinced

follow the money
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 15, 2021, 09:54:36 PM
Eh, I'm not willing to assign this to the boogeyman of corporate greed just yet.

I know bwar doesn't think it's mutating quickly enough to warrant such measures, but I think the Brazilian variant, UK variant, and South African variant would all disagree with this hypothesis.  These are three major, significantly more infectious mutations, that all occurred with 6-9 months of the original strains entering those regions.

As I've said for the past 11 months or so, I'm not confident we're going to be able to contain this virus via human intervention mechanisms.

But ultimately, it will no longer be seen as a novel virus by our systems, and we'll build up our own natural immunity to it.  It will become one of many coronaviruses that affect and harm us on an annual basis, but it will no longer be the killer that it currently is.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 15, 2021, 10:13:14 PM

Quote from: utee94 on April 15, 2021, 09:54:36 PM
Eh, I'm not willing to assign this to the boogeyman of corporate greed just yet.

I know bwar doesn't think it's mutating quickly enough to warrant such measures, but I think the Brazilian variant, UK variant, and South African variant would all disagree with this hypothesis.  These are three major, significantly more infectious mutations, that all occurred with 6-9 months of the original strains entering those regions.

As I've said for the past 11 months or so, I'm not confident we're going to be able to contain this virus via human intervention mechanisms.

But ultimately, it will no longer be seen as a novel virus by our systems, and we'll build up our own natural immunity to it.  It will become one of many coronaviruses that affect and harm us on an annual basis, but it will no longer be the killer that it currently is.



The vaccines have only been out there for 4.5 months and they are talking about needing a booster

how do they know

what do they know they arent telling us

this really pisses me off
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 15, 2021, 10:21:48 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 15, 2021, 10:13:14 PM
The vaccines have only been out there for 4.5 months and they are talking about needing a booster

how do they know

what do they know they arent telling us

this really pisses me off

They know there are numerous global mutations that are "challenging" to the existing vaccines. 

This is not surprising at all given what we know about viral mutations.

I don't know what other data you're looking for? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 15, 2021, 10:59:54 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 15, 2021, 10:21:48 PM
They know there are numerous global mutations that are "challenging" to the existing vaccines. 

This is not surprising at all given what we know about viral mutations.

I don't know what other data you're looking for? 
How do the current vaccines do against these mutations

have you read anything on that

I havent

obviously they must have data that says not good or they wouldnt be talking about a booster

it would be nice to know a little more then they are telling us
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 15, 2021, 11:16:24 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 15, 2021, 10:59:54 PM
How do the current vaccines do against these mutations

have you read anything on that

I havent

obviously they must have data that says not good or they wouldnt be talking about a booster

it would be nice to know a little more then they are telling us
Yeah I hear ya on this.  It's sort of an extension of the problem we've been discussing for the past several pages.  The messaging has been confusing, and sometimes just straight-up alarming.

Initially they thought that the existing vaccines were holding up well against the mutations.  I haven't seen a ton of recent data, but these comments aren't particularly encouraging.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 16, 2021, 08:46:02 AM
perhaps the reason to continue to wear masks is fear of variants causing sickness and therefore a small number of cases can impact the percentages of effectiveness?

perhaps another reason J&J was paused, not as effective vs one or more of the variants?

6 blood clots out of nearly 7 million doesn't sound right
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 16, 2021, 08:56:30 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 16, 2021, 08:46:02 AM
perhaps the reason to continue to wear masks is fear of variants causing sickness and therefore a small number of cases can impact the percentages of effectiveness?

perhaps another reason J&J was paused, not as effective vs one or more of the variants?

6 blood clots out of nearly 7 million doesn't sound right

I mean, that's probably a stated reason for wearing masks, but when does it end? We're in big trouble if the goal has moved from "flatten the curve to avoid overrunning the hospitals" to "get to herd immunity" to "eradicate the virus."  The last one is never, ever going to happen. 

And I don't think J&J is pausing due to being ineffective, I really do think it's the blood clot issue.  Once we moved from "following the science-based statistical plan" to doing things "out of an abundance of caution" we were pretty much already lost on this thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2021, 09:15:03 AM
The goalposts are going to keep moving with this thing for a long time. We are 18 months in. Medications will be developed, along with better treatment. This will turn into nothing more than another coronavirus. We'll be fine.

Moderna is working on a combo flu/covid shot. That is promising stuff. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 16, 2021, 09:41:35 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2021, 09:15:03 AM
The goalposts are going to keep moving with this thing for a long time. We are 18 months in. Medications will be developed, along with better treatment. This will turn into nothing more than another coronavirus. We'll be fine.

Moderna is working on a combo flu/covid shot. That is promising stuff.
Sounds great, right up until we grow a third kneecap on our backs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 16, 2021, 09:52:17 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 15, 2021, 10:59:54 PM
How do the current vaccines do against these mutations

have you read anything on that

I havent

obviously they must have data that says not good or they wouldnt be talking about a booster

it would be nice to know a little more then they are telling us
There's plenty to read on this if you really look around.

Here's a good one that NPR put out 6 days ago: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/04/09/985745837/can-vaccines-stop-variants-heres-what-we-know-so-far

Summary:

The first concern was the British variant, because it was known to have mutations to the genetic sequence of the spike protein, and given that both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are encoding our bodies to recognize and build immunity to the genetic sequence of the spike protein, there was concern that it would be less effective. I believe so far both, and J&J, have proven very effective against the British variant. 

The South African variant appears to not be as effective. Not completely ineffective, but not as effective. Apparently initial studies of J&J and Pfizer in South Africa were pretty positive, but Novavax (which hasn't been approved in the US) may be only half as effective against this variant. There is also a worrying study out of Israel (here (https://www.timesofisrael.com/real-world-israeli-data-shows-south-african-variant-better-at-bypassing-vaccine/)) suggesting that they're seeing less efficacy from the Pfizer vaccine against that strain. 

As for the Brazilian strain, too little is known about it at this time from what the article suggests. There are studies being done, but they're not complete.

Quote from: utee94 on April 15, 2021, 09:54:36 PM
Eh, I'm not willing to assign this to the boogeyman of corporate greed just yet.

I know bwar doesn't think it's mutating quickly enough to warrant such measures, but I think the Brazilian variant, UK variant, and South African variant would all disagree with this hypothesis.  These are three major, significantly more infectious mutations, that all occurred with 6-9 months of the original strains entering those regions.

As I've said for the past 11 months or so, I'm not confident we're going to be able to contain this virus via human intervention mechanisms.

But ultimately, it will no longer be seen as a novel virus by our systems, and we'll build up our own natural immunity to it.  It will become one of many coronaviruses that affect and harm us on an annual basis, but it will no longer be the killer that it currently is.

One of the issues with the rate of mutation is the very fact that we have no immunity. Thus, there is a LARGE pool of potential hosts, greatly increasing the likelihood of successful mutations, and of enough community transmission for those mutations to spread and establish themselves.

Get to the point where we have an 80%+ vaccination rate, and suddenly you've cut your potential mutation rate based purely on number of hosts the virus can infect, and reduced the transmission chain for those mutations to establish themselves in large numbers. 

Unless a mutation occurs that renders all vaccines 0% effective, the fact that we have the vaccines and as we expand them worldwide will cut the mutation rate based purely on numbers. 

I'm still hopeful that we can get a handle on this--as mentioned we might need a booster as we learn more about some of these variants, but I still don't think the structure of the virus is one that is prone to mutation on the same level as the flu. I'm not convinced that we'll need annual boosters.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 16, 2021, 09:53:45 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 16, 2021, 09:41:35 AM
Sounds great, right up until we grow a third kneecap on our backs.
Great. As if humans didn't have enough knee problems and back problems as two of our most problematic areas, now we're going to have kneeback problems and a virus we'll never ever contain?

Who peed in your cheerios this morning, 94? :96:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 16, 2021, 09:59:04 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 16, 2021, 09:52:17 AM

I'm still hopeful that we can get a handle on this--as mentioned we might need a booster as we learn more about some of these variants, but I still don't think the structure of the virus is one that is prone to mutation on the same level as the flu. I'm not convinced that we'll need annual boosters.

Oh what now, YOU'RE a more trustworthy professional regarding coronavirus vaccines, than the CEO of Pfizer?


(I'm just kidding around, of course ;) )


Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 16, 2021, 09:53:45 AM
Great. As if humans didn't have enough knee problems and back problems as two of our most problematic areas, now we're going to have kneeback problems and a virus we'll never ever contain?

Who peed in your cheerios this morning, 94? :96:

Picture of me, taken just this morning:

(https://i.imgur.com/GWDeiSi.png)



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 16, 2021, 10:07:33 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 16, 2021, 09:52:17 AM

Get to the point where we have an 80%+ vaccination rate, and suddenly you've cut your potential mutation rate based purely on number of hosts the virus can infect, and reduced the transmission chain for those mutations to establish themselves in large numbers.

this may be unrealistic in the US

certainly unrealistic worldwide
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on April 16, 2021, 10:14:33 AM
To end the week:

Globally reported COVID deaths surpass 3 million

Europe surpasses 1 million Covid deaths, according to WHO

France surpasses 100K Covid deaths, making it the 8th nation to reach this grim milestone - preceded by USA, Brazil, Mexico, India, UK, Italy, and Russia
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 16, 2021, 10:31:09 AM
9th if you count China
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 16, 2021, 10:48:21 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/Sb5HDn3.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2021, 12:06:33 PM
This could get really interesting.


Josh Rogin Calls Out Media for Failing to Discuss Fauci's CovidConnection (mediaite.com) (https://www.mediaite.com/news/washington-posts-josh-rogin-calls-out-media-for-ignoring-faucis-potential-connection-to-wuhan-lab/amp/?__twitter_impression=true)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 16, 2021, 12:27:24 PM
Is Josh Rogin that dude who was on Newsradio?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 16, 2021, 12:43:42 PM
The COVID-19 vaccine is one step to help us get back to the things we love. ❤️
An on-campus COVID-19 vaccine clinic will be available to UNL students, faculty and staff at the Coliseum on Tuesday, April 20. Pre-register at go.unl.edu/VaccineClinic. Walk-ins accepted with a valid NCard.
Free grab-and-go giveaways, including food and refreshments, will be provided during the clinic on the East Stadium plaza with your COVID-19 vaccination card and a valid NCard.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2021, 03:58:19 PM
Given where we were a year ago, if I could have rolled the dice or taken where we are today, I probably would have taken the sure thing, bad as it is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2021, 06:55:15 AM
Read the whole thing (it's from 2015).

Engineered bat virus stirs debate over risky research : Nature News & Comment (https://www.nature.com/news/engineered-bat-virus-stirs-debate-over-risky-research- 1.18787)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2021, 10:28:29 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2021, 06:55:15 AM
Read the whole thing (it's from 2015).

Engineered bat virus stirs debate over risky research : Nature News & Comment (https://www.nature.com/news/engineered-bat-virus-stirs-debate-over-risky-research- 1.18787)


very interesting

its clear that the theory of a Chinese engineered virus is not new

and has been seen as a possibility for some time
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 18, 2021, 10:52:18 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 18, 2021, 10:28:29 AM
very interesting

its clear that the theory of a Chinese engineered virus is not new

and has been seen as a possibility for some time

Yes, lots of stories along these lines early in the pandemic until the WHO began exerting its influence to squash them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2021, 11:02:54 AM
I'm leaning toward going back to my theory that this was intentional. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2021, 11:46:11 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2021, 11:02:54 AM
I'm leaning toward going back to my theory that this was intentional.
I think its very possible man made but still lean towards it being an accidental release

otherwise it would have been released anywhere but China
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2021, 11:56:34 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 18, 2021, 11:46:11 AM
I think its very possible man made but still lean towards it being an accidental release

otherwise it would have been released anywhere but China
I dunno about that. It's the CCP we're talking about. Sacrificing lives matters none to them. They knowingly sent infected people all over the Western world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2021, 01:09:29 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2021, 11:56:34 AM
I dunno about that. It's the CCP we're talking about. Sacrificing lives matters none to them. They knowingly sent infected people all over the Western world.
That is true but I still think it would have been much easier for them to go into stealth mode and release it in Europe or Africa

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2021, 02:01:59 PM
Doing that would increase the probability of being caught in the act, I would think.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2021, 06:37:12 AM
Covid: Chile's coronavirus cases hit record levels despite vaccine rollout (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/19/covid-chiles-coronavirus-cases-hit-record-levels-despite-vaccine-rollout.html)

The Chinese vaccine appears not to be very effective.

Three percent after shot one?  That's rounding error.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 19, 2021, 09:36:04 AM
So you're telling me that they are better at making viruses than they are at making vaccines for same?


;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 19, 2021, 09:54:11 AM
FFS badge
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 19, 2021, 09:55:38 AM
I have not ruled it out. You can't with the CCP. Sorry (not really).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 19, 2021, 12:27:59 PM
Moderna shot #1 in the arm, finally, after two aborted attempts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 19, 2021, 01:30:52 PM
This is interesting.

Are Outdoor Mask Mandates Still Necessary? - The Atlantic (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/04/are-outdoor-mask-mandates-still-necessary/618626/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 19, 2021, 01:47:54 PM
Outside of crowded urban sidewalks and the crowded downtown running trail around the lake, nobody around here wears masks outdoors.  If we have an outdoor mask mandate, nobody is adhering to it.

I put on my mask as I'm walking from my car to a building, I guess probably once I get within about 20 yards of the entrance.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 19, 2021, 02:33:30 PM
In two months masks are a thing of the past. Whether governments acknowledge that or not is up to them, but the people will speak with their actions.

I still don't understand why areas of the UK and Canada have closed golf courses. It's outdoor and it's by nature a non-contact socially distanced sport. It's even easier to socially distance than you can on hiking trails. 

Seems like the most arbitrary and dumbest thing you could possibly ban.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 19, 2021, 09:15:55 PM
Yeah they closed down golf courses for the first couple of months here, too.  Until enough people said WTF and pretty much forced them back open.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on April 19, 2021, 10:48:44 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 19, 2021, 02:33:30 PM
In two months masks are a thing of the past. Whether governments acknowledge that or not is up to them, but the people will speak with their actions.

I still don't understand why areas of the UK and Canada have closed golf courses. It's outdoor and it's by nature a non-contact socially distanced sport. It's even easier to socially distance than you can on hiking trails.

Seems like the most arbitrary and dumbest thing you could possibly ban.


Speaking of Canada and outdoor bans, they're experiencing a recent surge of cases paralleling that of their Great Lakes sharing neighbor, Michigan:


(https://i.imgur.com/3us5tdl.png)



"COVID has spiked in Ontario, Canada’s most populous province. Last Friday, the province’s premier, Doug Ford, pretty much declared a police state. No, it was already a police state. Ford said that what he was about to do was to enact the strictest measures in all of North America. He wasn’t lying. Playgrounds were shuttered. Police were given absurd powers to question anyone who was outside of their homes. This includes stopping people from moving vehicles. It also closed its borders."

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2021/04/19/ny-post-deputy-politics-editor-details-how-canadians-have-been-broken-by-covid-lo-n2588097
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 20, 2021, 07:08:53 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on April 19, 2021, 10:48:44 PM

Speaking of Canada and outdoor bans, they're experiencing a recent surge of cases paralleling that of their Great Lakes sharing neighbor, Michigan:


"COVID has spiked in Ontario, Canada’s most populous province. Last Friday, the province’s premier, Doug Ford, pretty much declared a police state. No, it was already a police state. Ford said that what he was about to do was to enact the strictest measures in all of North America. He wasn’t lying. Playgrounds were shuttered. Police were given absurd powers to question anyone who was outside of their homes. This includes stopping people from moving vehicles. It also closed its borders."

Damn I was going to make a break for it.And keep on going until I got across the Ottawa River into Quebec
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 20, 2021, 07:53:53 AM
Day after Moderna #1, arm is a little sore at the injection site. No other issues.  Knock on wood.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 20, 2021, 08:36:56 AM
Shot number 2 is tomorrow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 20, 2021, 09:16:50 AM
About to go for a 5-mile run.

I... feel... happy...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 20, 2021, 10:18:37 AM
a 5 mile run would be much more dangerous to me than shot #2
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 20, 2021, 10:41:35 AM
Nah, it's good for you.  Try it, you might like it! :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 20, 2021, 10:55:23 AM
Perhaps I should start with one block and work my way up to 5 blocks?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 20, 2021, 11:24:31 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 20, 2021, 10:41:35 AM
Nah, it's good for you.  Try it, you might like it! :)
Cardio would of course be good for me, but would have to be balanced against the tremendous impact on my joints. At my size, running would absolutely not be good for my knees and ankles, and feet.

I can sometimes jog on a treadmill as there seems to be more give in the surface, but going for a run in my neighborhood on concrete sidewalks would just be punishment on my lower extremities. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 20, 2021, 11:31:09 AM
I'd much rather run all day on grass than pavement.  But Florida grass.....parks here in Phoenix have grass, but it's atop some sort of sandy-colored pavement.
.
I do miss the spongy grass of FL.  Probably aided by infinite earthworms, too.  None of that here.  Park grass in the desert might as well be the green carpet atop pavement at old Veteran's Stadium in Philly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 20, 2021, 11:33:32 AM
Reminds me of a HS football field on the Rez in Ganado....it was the old-timey astro-turf, god knows how old.  All of us coaches and players were green up to the knees.  And no joke, the places that had splits in the surface - the gaps were filled in with straight-up concrete. 

A random field would have been better....except for the bullheads. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 20, 2021, 12:16:07 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 20, 2021, 09:16:50 AM
About to go for a 5-mile run.

I... feel... happy...
Every heart has so many beats - don't push it - have a Live Oak
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 20, 2021, 12:17:16 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 20, 2021, 11:33:32 AM
A random field would have been better....except for the bullheads. 
What would catfish be doing in the middle of the field?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 20, 2021, 12:21:05 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 20, 2021, 11:24:31 AM
Cardio would of course be good for me, but would have to be balanced against the tremendous impact on my joints. At my size, running would absolutely not be good for my knees and ankles, and feet.
Quite a few of my runner friends,some ran marathons all have had joint/bone/back even neck problems
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 20, 2021, 12:33:45 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 20, 2021, 12:21:05 PM
Quite a few of my runner friends,some ran marathons all have had joint/bone/back even neck problems
Exactly. It's damaging enough for people with a typical runner's physique (which they must have if they could run a marathon). My ideal weight is probably 235-240, so while I'm a good ways above that right now, even my ideal weight would likely destroy my joints from running. 

I do definitely need to walk more... I've been getting lazy with the dog and our morning walk is barely over a mile. At least when I play golf I always walk the course, so that's 5+ miles for my 18-hole executive course and closer to 7-8 miles on a regulation course. It would be a much shorter total walk if I were a better golfer lol...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 20, 2021, 12:52:53 PM
folks have no idear a Tall about how many steps I take playing 18 holes with a cart

mostly because I'm a terrible golfer
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 20, 2021, 01:14:45 PM
Running's about the only exercise I can do to keep the beer weight off, so that's I do.

I run, so I can drink beer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 20, 2021, 01:30:27 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 20, 2021, 12:52:53 PM
folks have no idear a Tall about how many steps I take playing 18 holes with a cart

mostly because I'm a terrible golfer
I played a round walking with guys who were riding, the day after it had rained. Thus, it was cart path only. 

I'm certain they walked more steps that round than I did. Especially with most of the cart paths naturally being down the right side of holes due to most golfers hitting that predominantly that direction, but with one of the guys being a lefty who hit fades and was down the left side of the hole all day. 

Maybe you should walk instead of ride to reduce your exertion :57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 20, 2021, 01:54:58 PM
I don't mind walking and carrying my clubs, it's the cooler of Bud Fat that's too heavy to carry.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 20, 2021, 02:32:54 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 20, 2021, 01:54:58 PM
I don't mind walking and carrying my clubs, it's the cooler of Bud Fat that's too heavy to carry.
I have a push cart and a cooler that'll hold 6... https://www.amazon.com/Caddy-Daddy-Golf-Pack-Cooler/dp/B0002E3KDI/

Since I'm drinking IPA, and since I primarily play in the morning, that's more than plenty for a round lol...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 20, 2021, 02:35:52 PM
I have a pull cart that I use occasionally when it's too wet for carts.

I'm 3/4 German, so I can drink warm beer.  I might be able to make it around on only 6.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 20, 2021, 02:55:26 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 20, 2021, 12:52:53 PM
folks have no idear a Tall about how many steps I take playing 18 holes with a cart

mostly because I'm a terrible golfer
Damn right get your swings in,I'm not falling for that PAR crap
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 20, 2021, 02:56:53 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 20, 2021, 02:32:54 PM
I have a push cart and a cooler that'll hold 6... https://www.amazon.com/Caddy-Daddy-Golf-Pack-Cooler/dp/B0002E3KDI/

Since I'm drinking IPA, and since I primarily play in the morning, that's more than plenty for a round lol...
Breakfast of champs keep those joints lubed,try a Kolsch
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on April 20, 2021, 03:07:34 PM
My Golf bag has what they call "the bucket" on it.  It is insulated and will hold 4 to 6 beers along with an ice pack. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 20, 2021, 03:10:05 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 20, 2021, 02:35:52 PM
 so I can drink warm beer.  
An old co worker who served in Vietnam told me a quarter master one time left cases of Flastaff on an airstrip tarmac near Can Rahn Bay in the Sun at like 110 degrees.It's bad enough they were left Falstaff,it's incomprehensible it was hot.That's graditude for ya
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 20, 2021, 03:25:27 PM
beggars can't be choosers
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 20, 2021, 03:43:56 PM
Soldiers?dayum guarantee that QM wasn't drinking warm Falstaff in the Officers Club
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 20, 2021, 04:13:26 PM
I've started walking with a fully-loaded camping backpack and playing Just Dance for 30 min when I wake up in the morning.  

Worst shape of my life.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 21, 2021, 08:41:33 AM
V-safe is a smartphone-based tool that checks in on you after your COVID-19 vaccination. Your participation helps keep COVID-19 vaccines safe — for you and for everyone.

https://vsafe.cdc.gov/en/ (https://vsafe.cdc.gov/en/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2021, 02:24:49 PM
Shot #2 is in the house. Hopefully tomorrow is a good day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2021, 09:20:22 AM
A little tired today. Nothing more than that and my arm is sore.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 22, 2021, 09:29:16 AM
Good Luck, We're All Counting On You.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2021, 03:22:20 PM
Still nothing except the arm. Fatigue is gone. Been over 24 hours. All good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on April 22, 2021, 03:57:00 PM
Good for you, Badge. I felt wiped out the day after my second shot. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2021, 04:13:32 PM
I did after the first one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 22, 2021, 04:20:34 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2021, 04:13:32 PM
I did after the first one.
That's consistent with the anecdotal observations where people who have already had C19, tend to be more affected by dose#1, and people who have never had it, tend to be more affected by dose#2.

It's not a peer reviewed study of course, but at this point I've seen this play out pretty commonly among scores or even hundreds of posters on surlyhorns, as well as our tight knit little sample here at cfb51.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 22, 2021, 04:33:05 PM
Yep, that was my thinking exactly. The T cells were already robust, so shot #1 was really shot #2 for me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 22, 2021, 05:31:21 PM
That's what I don't understand, though...

You'd think that if you've already had COVID, and if shot #1 produces a more aggressive response (and more side effects), then shouldn't shot #2 either also produce an equally aggressive response, or even more so, because your immune system is even more primed to react to it?

Maybe it's a timing effect due to it only occurring 3 or 4 weeks between the two? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 22, 2021, 05:55:10 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 22, 2021, 05:31:21 PM
That's what I don't understand, though...

You'd think that if you've already had COVID, and if shot #1 produces a more aggressive response (and more side effects), then shouldn't shot #2 either also produce an equally aggressive response, or even more so, because your immune system is even more primed to react to it?

Maybe it's a timing effect due to it only occurring 3 or 4 weeks between the two?

I think of it more like a threshold thing.  If you've had it before, then shot#1 kicks your immune system over the threshold.  If you've never had it before, then it takes BOTH shots to kick you over the threshold.  But once you go over the threshold, in the short term at least, additional shots aren't going to create additional reactions.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2021, 08:22:40 AM
Yep. That's my thinking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 23, 2021, 08:28:01 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2021, 08:22:40 AM
Yep. That's my thinking.
Yup.  It's a hypothesis that seems to fit the evidence we know of.  Doesn't mean it's correct of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on April 23, 2021, 08:48:01 AM
Either way, we're both happy as hell to have both shots in our arms and the clock running on shot 2 +14 days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 23, 2021, 09:00:16 AM
Good stuff.    I look forward to that as well.

I'm going to the NASCAR race weekend at Circuit of the Americas May 21-23.  I'd hoped to be fully vaxed by then, but instead I'll be at Moderna #2 plus 1 week.  Close enough I suppose.

And, let's be honest, contacting COVID19 is probably among the least of my worries whilst attending a NASCAR race...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 23, 2021, 09:13:58 AM
Got my second shot loaded up yesterday. Was told it might take up to 18 hours for side effects to sit in. I slept in today, but that might’ve just been intentional.

Also took the day off as a precaution, in part “precaution” though I was on track for a decompress day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 23, 2021, 09:29:25 AM
I'm leaving the office at 2:30 this afternoon, but it's because I have a 3:37 tee time
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 23, 2021, 10:24:31 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 23, 2021, 09:00:16 AM
Good stuff.    I look forward to that as well.

I'm going to the NASCAR race weekend at Circuit of the Americas May 21-23.  
Ha!The left turn circuit,cant realy watch - liked old indy though
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 23, 2021, 10:48:09 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 23, 2021, 10:24:31 AM
Ha!The left turn circuit,cant realy watch - liked old indy though
Well that's the great thing about going to see them at COTA-- it's a track purpose-built for Formula 1, so the stock cars will have to turn both right AND left.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2021, 10:58:37 AM
I've driven at COTA, it indeed is a road circuit, left and right, up and down, one straightaway in the back.  They said we hit about 140 mph there, I didn't look down, and had the HUD turned off.  It was fast enough for me.

That was the Cadillac Driving School which I thought was great fun and cheap relatively.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 23, 2021, 11:04:56 AM
I've only driven parade-style at COTA.  Oh and I've run 5Ks and biked there.

But I'd definitely love to do some kind of race track experience there, someday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 23, 2021, 11:24:36 AM
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-0/p526x296/175873189_10225377383000241_4319248531922314843_n.jpg?_nc_cat=105&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_aid=0&_nc_ohc=4I1gwQGGi9UAX92JUks&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&tp=6&oh=51586787b5bfb1612ef5e34f8e15cf30&oe=60A7309D)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 23, 2021, 11:25:08 AM
HA!  Now that's funny stuff.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 23, 2021, 12:04:16 PM
way over due
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 23, 2021, 12:05:11 PM
My daughter is getting her 2nd shot next Wed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 23, 2021, 01:29:48 PM
get a room, guys
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 23, 2021, 11:24:48 PM
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1385724898920763396?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1385758688250667008%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es3_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.surlyhorns.com%2Fboard%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Faiddya%2Fstatus%2F1385758688250667008

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 23, 2021, 11:28:07 PM
I'm certain there area lot of layers of nuance to this, but I'd really like to see the USA be able to help India right here.

I think we're reaching at least an initial level of "vaccine saturation" and whether or not that has positive implications for the US, I do think it means that for the near future, we have some excess to give to India.

This seems like an appropriate time to deploy the J&J one-shot, temperature-stable solution, to other countries.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 24, 2021, 12:34:27 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 23, 2021, 11:28:07 PM
I'm certain there area lot of layers of nuance to this, but I'd really like to see the USA be able to help India right here.

I think we're reaching at least an initial level of "vaccine saturation" and whether or not that has positive implications for the US, I do think it means that for the near future, we have some excess to give to India.

This seems like an appropriate time to deploy the J&J one-shot, temperature-stable solution, to other countries.
I have no problem with your sentiment but the reality is that India has over 1.3 Billion people and that hill will be a tough one to climb
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2021, 12:57:29 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 24, 2021, 12:34:27 AM
I have no problem with your sentiment but the reality is that India has over 1.3 Billion people and that hill will be a tough one to climb
Yes.  Yes, it will.

Doesn't change my opinion at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 24, 2021, 07:38:32 AM
Helping India, and Brazil, etc. is in our interest at a point.  I think we're going to have vaccine left over and no takes fairly soon.

The antivax sentiment is pretty high I think.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 24, 2021, 09:04:35 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 24, 2021, 12:34:27 AM
I have no problem with your sentiment but the reality is that India has over 1.3 Billion people and that hill will be a tough one to climb
probably even more important that we make an attempt to climb as far up the hill as possible
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 24, 2021, 09:26:50 AM
Yeah, the more vaccinations we can help get around the rest of the world, the fewer chances the virus will have to evolve into something the vaccine fails against, and the less correct my predictions will be, about never being able to have a fully effective vaccine.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2021, 09:55:30 AM
Load up a 747 with J&J and get it done. India is an important ally in that part of the world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 24, 2021, 10:01:45 AM
yup, I'm not for sending a trillion dollars to India, but a billion doses of vaccine is a great idea 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2021, 12:30:07 PM
As pandemic surges anew, global envy and anger over U.S. vaccine abundance (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/as-pandemic-surges-anew-global-envy-and-anger-over-u-s-vaccine-abundance/ar-BB1fZRNk?ocid=msedgntp)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2021, 01:24:14 PM
A man who got his first COVID-19 vaccine a year ago in Moderna's clinical trial just received his third shot - and he's feeling great (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/a-man-who-got-his-first-covid-19-vaccine-a-year-ago-in-moderna-s-clinical-trial-just-received-his-third-shot-and-he-s-feeling-great/ar-BB1fZh4Q?ocid=msedgntp)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 25, 2021, 03:40:46 PM
FL current data through yesterday:

(https://i.imgur.com/LVtsnSr.png)

Wisconsin:

(https://i.imgur.com/bFacUOn.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 25, 2021, 03:44:42 PM
Deaths per Million population:

(https://i.imgur.com/7iGsb5h.png)

Texas #23. FL #28. Cali #31.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 25, 2021, 04:09:35 PM
so far the US is not experiencing the surge in cases the rest of the world is has experienced

not sure whether its just the cycle of this virus or if we are starting to feel the effects of over 90,000,000 of us being fully vaccinated
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 25, 2021, 04:52:46 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 25, 2021, 04:09:35 PM
so far the US is not experiencing the surge in cases the rest of the world is has experienced

not sure whether its just the cycle of this virus or if we are starting to feel the effects of over 90,000,000 of us being fully vaccinated
Not only that, but the effects of over 100,000,000 of us who have already had the damn thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 25, 2021, 05:22:04 PM
Israel is way down and they were probably at the forefront of getting vaccinated.  India is exploding.  Brazil is in bad shape.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 25, 2021, 10:06:59 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 24, 2021, 12:30:07 PM
As pandemic surges anew, global envy and anger over U.S. vaccine abundance (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/as-pandemic-surges-anew-global-envy-and-anger-over-u-s-vaccine-abundance/ar-BB1fZRNk?ocid=msedgntp)

so, perhaps the vaccine is working?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 25, 2021, 10:08:50 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 25, 2021, 03:44:42 PM
Deaths per Million population:

Texas #23. FL #28. Cali #31.
politics aside

those 3 states not much different

folks the virus isn't political
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 26, 2021, 06:58:28 AM
Correct.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 26, 2021, 10:28:04 AM
so the observation that dem govs tend to want their state closed while rep govs tend to open their states up is baseless

hmm learn something new every day

its not a matter of politics but a matter of approach to managing a state

just seems one side has a different approach then the other
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 26, 2021, 10:40:24 AM
Given Florida has an older population, their figure is notable, I think, and it is fair to compare the different approaches governments have taken versus the data.

Another figure would be hospitalizations.  

In Georgia, we're still at a low and steady level (for now).  I HOPE the vaccinations have caught up with more "open" attitudes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 26, 2021, 12:27:12 PM
I highlight again that regardless of what you hear from Gavin Newsom, California is pretty much open and has been for months. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 26, 2021, 12:28:31 PM
Florida has been open for a year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 26, 2021, 12:34:16 PM
Deaths per Million population:

Texas #23. FL #28. Cali #31.

__________________________

open open closed-relatively

so, it makes you wonder if Cali being more closed actually saved many lives and if so, how many and at what cost?

Obviously some folks would say regardless of cost, saving any life or lives is much more important

seems to me that regardless of open or closed, many lives were lost.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 26, 2021, 12:41:17 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 26, 2021, 12:27:12 PM
I highlight again that regardless of what you hear from Gavin Newsom, California is pretty much open and has been for months.


so he opened all the schools?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 26, 2021, 12:48:27 PM
spread isn't a concern from the schools, so, doesn't matter if open or closed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 26, 2021, 12:58:08 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 26, 2021, 12:41:17 PM
so he opened all the schools?
County by county. My kid in the public school has been on-site learning since about October, all-day instruction 5 days a week.

The two in the charter school have had a couple instances of time where they got thrown into distance learning for interim periods due to cases at the school [overreaction IMHO] but that was the school's decision, not the county or district. Also all-day instruction 5 days a week.

Both school systems have allowed students who need distance learning for whatever reason to have that as an option. For my son in the public school his full-day 5-day instruction was different because he's special needs--the genpop kids were on a hybrid model where they'd only be in class half-days (either AM or PM) to reduce number of kids in close proximity to each other and allow distancing. That ended last week though, so even genpop is there full-day now too. 

That said, I understand that LA Unified School District remained closed MUCH longer than everywhere else. But again I believe that was an LA county decision, and not Newsom mandating that they must remain closed.

Quote from: FearlessF on April 26, 2021, 12:48:27 PM
spread isn't a concern from the schools, so, doesn't matter if open or closed
Bingo.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 26, 2021, 01:16:52 PM
Could the governor mandate that they all be open, or no?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 26, 2021, 01:26:02 PM
Our step son visits us more often than usual simply because SF where he lives is largely closed and he hates that, and ATL is largely open, and he likes that.

Plus he is 100% WFH, which he can do here.  Living in a city that is largely closed loses its charm quickly.  At least here we have the park when things were closed, they reopened a year ago, officially, April 23, though a lot of places stayed take out only.

There is still a lot about COVID we don't understand in my view.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 26, 2021, 01:37:20 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 26, 2021, 12:48:27 PM
spread isn't a concern from the schools, so, doesn't matter if open or closed
doesnt matter to who?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 26, 2021, 02:04:03 PM
to the COVID-19 virus
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 26, 2021, 02:04:32 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 26, 2021, 01:16:52 PM
Could the governor mandate that they all be open, or no?
I'm not sure, to be honest. 

I assume he has some legitimate emergency powers that can close things [maybe I'll learn differently through the recall efforts] for health & safety reasons, but it might not be possible for him to force individual districts to reopen for in-person learning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 26, 2021, 02:26:45 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 26, 2021, 02:04:03 PM
to the COVID-19 virus
Yes all evidence points to opening the schools but for some reason certain states wont do it

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 26, 2021, 02:56:06 PM
some political reason, perhaps

not believing the science
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 26, 2021, 04:40:30 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/8UuK1Vp.png)

So, through December, there were 83.1 Million cases (22% reported). By now I'm guessing that 4.6 is up to 6 or 7. Let's say 6.5.

We have 33 Million reported cases now. That means we could have had as many as 215 Million total. We're near 100 vaccinated.

Things are definitely looking up.

(Yes, there is overlap in those numbers, of course. Like me, for example.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on April 26, 2021, 05:17:16 PM
I'm signed up for the first shot tomorrow.  Not sure if it's Pfizer or Moderna.  I wanted to get the J&J (despite the pause) but nobody around here offers it that I have found.  I decided that even though I already had COVID it won't hurt to get vaccinated.  A friend of mine from work just got out of the hospital (50ish YO) and was in for ~30+ days and almost died and may have to be on O2 from here on out.  I already convinced my wife (1st dose last week) and MIL (1st dose last week also).  

BTW I spent some time in the mid-west last week (Kansas attending a trade show in the metropolis of Salina) and they're still pretty much wearing masks etc.  Texas hardly anybody wearing masks, Oklahoma hardly anybody wearing masks.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 26, 2021, 05:30:08 PM
Quote from: Gigem on April 26, 2021, 05:17:16 PM
I'm signed up for the first shot tomorrow.  Not sure if it's Pfizer or Moderna.  I wanted to get the J&J (despite the pause) but nobody around here offers it that I have found.  I decided that even though I already had COVID it won't hurt to get vaccinated.  A friend of mine from work just got out of the hospital (50ish YO) and was in for ~30+ days and almost died and may have to be on O2 from here on out.  I already convinced my wife (1st dose last week) and MIL (1st dose last week also). 

BTW I spent some time in the mid-west last week (Kansas attending a trade show in the metropolis of Salina) and they're still pretty much wearing masks etc.  Texas hardly anybody wearing masks, Oklahoma hardly anybody wearing masks. 

That's not true at all.  It depends on where you are.  Austin and surrounding areas are still entirely masked up inside businesses, because businesses are still requiring it.

In smaller towns, I've definitely noticed less mask-wearing though, that's for sure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 26, 2021, 05:42:49 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 26, 2021, 04:40:30 PM
So, through December, there were 83.1 Million cases (22% reported). By now I'm guessing that 4.6 is up to 6 or 7. Let's say 6.5.
Why? Why would the ratio of reported to unreported change over that time?

Early in the pandemic, it made sense that the ratio of unreported to reported was high. COVID testing was basically nonexistent at the beginning so ONLY the symptomatic and hospitalized people got tested. Patients who suspected they had COVID were advised by doctors NOT to be tested because there weren't enough tests to go around.

As testing became more available, and as we started requiring testing for things such as getting on an airplane to travel, for engaging in certain industries [like competitive athletics], and when we could test anyone who wanted to be tested, you would expect the ratio to decrease.

Now you're claiming that over the last 4 months, the ratio not only increased, but it increased at SUCH a marked rate that you're going to claim a 41% increase in the TOTAL ratio of unreported to reported cases. And you're essentially back-dating that not to cover JUST the reported cases between Dec 2020 and now, but to cover the ENTIRE base of reported infections from Mar 2020 until now.

That makes no sense, Badge... 

If there were 83.1M total cases in Dec 2020 and we're at your number of 215M cases now, meaning we've had 160% more cases over the last 4 months than the entire 9 months from Mar-Dec 2020, how did nobody notice? You'd have bodies lining the streets. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 27, 2021, 03:56:33 AM
Huh?

The vulnerable are already gone, or vaccinated now. The young and healthy are the ones moving the thing around today. They mostly don't get tested because they have no symptoms. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2021, 08:07:43 AM
Mask wearing around here may have ebbed some I've noticed casually, but is still required inside any business I've noted, and nearly all comply.

Servers at restaurants are at 100%.

I got used to it, it's not some big deal to me, if it helps an iota, I'm for it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 27, 2021, 11:35:13 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/LEeSnuc.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 27, 2021, 12:05:19 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 27, 2021, 03:56:33 AM
Huh?

The vulnerable are already gone, or vaccinated now. The young and healthy are the ones moving the thing around today. They mostly don't get tested because they have no symptoms.
As of Dec 2020, the estimate you posted says 83.1M were infected in the US, counting both reported and unreported cases, a ratio of 4.6. That should be about 18.2M reported, which is a little lower than the worldometers number of about 20.6M, probable due to CDC data lag.

You then said you think we're up to 215M now. 

Worldometers says we're at 32.8M and their number was about 20.6M on Dec 31, so keeping apples to apples they count about 12.2M new cases in the last 4 months.

*IF* you meant to say that the current ratio of unreported to reported was around 6.5, then the right thing to do would be to multiply 6.5 by 12.2M, which gets you to 79.3M, and add it to the previous 83.1M, for a total of ~160M. I don't accept that the current ratio is 6.5 w/o evidence, but I'd stipulate that it's at least a plausible number. That would bring the OVERALL ratio, counting both the separate Mar-Dec and Jan-Apr, only to about 4.95. 

But that's not what you said. You said that the overall ratio has now jumped to 6.5, which means that the ratio between Jan 1 and now must be MUCH higher than 6.5. To get to 215M, that means that the ratio between Jan 1 and today is actually 10.8 unreported to reported cases. I don't see any evidence or explanation to see a jump that high... And then that there'd be >130M new infections over the span of 4 months, without anyone noticing. Doesn't pass the smell test, dude...

I realize that you think everyone has had this thing, twice. As such, you've consistently taken the highest possible estimates for the ratio of unreported to reported cases. I get that. I'm just saying that the numbers you're getting to are now well into the implausible range.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on April 27, 2021, 04:22:51 PM
Quote from: utee94 on April 26, 2021, 05:30:08 PM
That's not true at all.  It depends on where you are.  Austin and surrounding areas are still entirely masked up inside businesses, because businesses are still requiring it.

In smaller towns, I've definitely noticed less mask-wearing though, that's for sure.
Well, for sure it's not true for all of Texas and probably not true for all of Kansas and Oklahoma.  But I did stay in Fort Worth and made night in the stockyards and even though all businesses said mask required nobody was actually wearing one.  Of course, the staffers had the obligatory mask pulled down under the nose.  Likewise i was at the Houston Fishing show last week and no masks being worn there either and this was in downtown Houston.  

In general, from the small town I was in at Kansas (pop ~30K) most people there are wearing their masks.  In the smallish town (and larger towns ) I have been in Tx, hardly anybody was wearing a mask.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on April 27, 2021, 04:23:26 PM
And with that I'm off to get my 1st shot.  Will update tomorrow on the results.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 27, 2021, 05:13:06 PM
Quote from: Gigem on April 27, 2021, 04:22:51 PM
Well, for sure it's not true for all of Texas and probably not true for all of Kansas and Oklahoma.  But I did stay in Fort Worth and made night in the stockyards and even though all businesses said mask required nobody was actually wearing one.  Of course, the staffers had the obligatory mask pulled down under the nose.  Likewise i was at the Houston Fishing show last week and no masks being worn there either and this was in downtown Houston. 

In general, from the small town I was in at Kansas (pop ~30K) most people there are wearing their masks.  In the smallish town (and larger towns ) I have been in Tx, hardly anybody was wearing a mask. 

My experience in Fort Worth was the same as yours, while Dallas was completely opposite, and pretty much exactly like Austin.

Not at all surprising given the different demographics in Fort Worth compared to Dallas.

I haven't been anywhere in Houston in maybe two years, can't comment on that.  lh320 could enlighten us if he so chose.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 27, 2021, 05:43:46 PM
a lot of restaurants are at full capacity with about half wearing masks up until eating

hardly anyone wears masks out on the streets 

a lot of employers are bringing back their employees with limited mask wearing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 27, 2021, 05:53:05 PM
CDC just revised their mask guidelines for vaccinated people to reflect what vaccinated [and some unvaccinated] people have already been doing for months. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 27, 2021, 05:58:44 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 27, 2021, 05:53:05 PM
CDC just revised their mask guidelines for vaccinated people to reflect what vaccinated [and some unvaccinated] people have already been doing for months.
I saw that.


It's probably a lost cause at this point, their messaging has been so horrific they've lost pretty much all credibility, but even so-- they really need to fix their messaging.

I get it that they believed they were helping when they were telling people to mask up, even outside in non-crowded situations, but they weren't helping and they actually made it worse because they couldn't even claim THE SCIENCE OMG THE SCIENCE was on their side.  Same thing with masking after full vaccination-- you can't claim to be on the side of THE SCIENCE OMG THE SCIENCE-- and then defy the science.

Even dumb people catch on to your act at some point.

And the smart people stopped listening a long time ago.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on April 27, 2021, 11:14:17 PM
Pfizer #1 in the arm. 2nd one May 17th. 

So far so good. Arm is a little sore but ‘twas to be expected. In and out in about 20 minutes. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 28, 2021, 01:06:46 AM
My daughter is getting her 2nd pfizer shot tomorrow


no negative reaction from the first one
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 28, 2021, 08:50:57 AM
no symptoms at all from either shot #1 or #2 yesterday at 5pm

I feel better this morning than I did Tuesday morning

hopefully I'm not speaking too soon.  Tee time is 4:45 this afternoon
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 28, 2021, 11:51:10 AM
I just felt some fatigue, the wife felt nothing.

Most folks feel little or nothing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on April 28, 2021, 08:50:35 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 25, 2021, 05:22:04 PM
Israel is way down and they were probably at the forefront of getting vaccinated.  India is exploding.  Brazil is in bad shape.






(https://i.imgur.com/o0eH8eG.png)


Among the unpredictabilities of Covid is why, when, where, and by what degree Covid decides to spike.

In India Covid has seemingly exploded into a 2nd wave overnight. Iran is in their 4th wave. Brazil is still hitting over 3K deaths/day although cases are finally trending slightly downward. Meanwhile the UK, after enduring their own awful variant to start the winter months, are logging as low as 5-10 deaths on certain days. Meanwhile, New York and New Jersey have drummed along at plateauing numbers for months. Covid does whatever it wants whenever it wants wherever it wants.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 29, 2021, 09:37:13 AM
My daughter received her 2nd shot of pfizer yesterday

No adverse reactions so far
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 29, 2021, 01:58:57 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 29, 2021, 09:37:13 AM
My daughter received her 2nd shot of pfizer yesterday

No adverse reactions so far
Just got an update from my daughter

her arm hurts and she feels achy all over

spent a sleepless night

feels a little better today after taking Advil
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 29, 2021, 03:00:15 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 29, 2021, 02:53:51 PM
is is NOT the political meme thread
Removed.

l
Guys, if you want to post political crap, which includes memes, do it elsewhere.  The "In Other News" thread works.

Thank You For Your Support
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 30, 2021, 01:13:27 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/zxaZvhb.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 30, 2021, 01:34:12 PM
if you're feeling sick

stay the F home

with or w/o a mask
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 30, 2021, 02:04:33 PM
No kidding.  No need for a mask if you're feeling sick, just stay the hell home.  This one should be obvious at this point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 30, 2021, 02:38:50 PM
at should be obvious at this point that a mask cannot protect you
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 30, 2021, 02:42:17 PM
The Biden administration will restrict travel from India as that country grapples with a gigantic surge in coronavirus cases, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said.
The policy will take effect Tuesday, May 4, Psaki said.
The administration made the decision on the advice of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Psaki said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 01, 2021, 07:57:17 PM
2nd Moderna in the arm.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 02, 2021, 09:14:21 AM
How are you feeling today?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 02, 2021, 09:19:08 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 30, 2021, 02:42:17 PM
The Biden administration will restrict travel from India as that country grapples with a gigantic surge in coronavirus cases, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said.
The policy will take effect Tuesday, May 4, Psaki said.
The administration made the decision on the advice of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Psaki said.
Why isn't Pelosi railing against this?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 02, 2021, 10:04:16 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 02, 2021, 09:14:21 AM
How are you feeling today?
Sore arm and walking the dog seems to cause fatigue. Otherwise fine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2021, 10:49:16 AM
I personally am "adult enough" to consider COVID in terms of making international travel plans without government telling me what to do.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 02, 2021, 11:36:59 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/Iwq0QiM.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 02, 2021, 01:34:06 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 02, 2021, 11:36:59 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/Iwq0QiM.png)
Dude... Oktoberfest is in late September / early October. You've picked the wrong dates for a trip to Munich. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 02, 2021, 01:36:45 PM
No Oktoberfest this year in Munich.

This trip aligns with an Atlantic crossing on Azamara, from Lisbon to Miami.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 02, 2021, 02:04:45 PM
Seems to be a bit of a low-grade fever now (99.0, when I'm typically well under 98), and my hands/fingers are like ice. 

Going to power through and go to lunch with my wife. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 02, 2021, 02:10:57 PM
Take some Tylenol...

(https://i.imgur.com/w5YGVYe.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2021, 03:54:32 PM
A friend of ours in France, mid-40s, is now home after spending a week in ICU with COVID.  I just talked with another fellow we know same age here who was in the hospital for a week at Emory, he said he thought he was going to die, also mid-40s.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 02, 2021, 04:09:42 PM
Comorbs?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2021, 04:12:36 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 02, 2021, 04:09:42 PM
Comorbs?

None outwardly obvious, both men appear "normal", I don't know them well enough to know much of their history.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 02, 2021, 04:54:14 PM
A little Advil, a hot fried chicken sandwich, and 3 IPAs fixed me up right.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 03, 2021, 12:43:55 AM
Never mind. Ride a 101 fever for about four hours. Hopefully better now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 03, 2021, 02:53:16 PM
It was those 3 IPAs.  If you had consumed actual GOOD beer, you'd have been fine!

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 03, 2021, 03:16:35 PM
I figured that I'd given my immune system enough calories and carbs to go to war. Only thing left to send those soldiers into battle was to give them some liquid courage!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 03, 2021, 05:27:51 PM
Well as of today I'm exactly 2 weeks away from Moderna shot#2.  I'm really hoping I have little to no reaction, same as my i s c & a aggie wife.  Otherwise, she's never going to let me live it down.  Even if I feel like I'm gonna die, I can't let her know... 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on May 03, 2021, 08:21:48 PM
Noticing many more businesses dropping own mask requirements including some which were vigilant in requiring them. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 03, 2021, 08:31:39 PM
many places still have a sign up, but no enforcement or confrontation a tall

such as Memorial stadium and haymarket park and bars in Lincoln last weekend
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on May 03, 2021, 09:46:29 PM
Lost a distant cousin to corona this last week. He was in his 70’s.  His wife had it as well and had to be hospitalized.  She made it, he did not. I didn’t know him well so I can’t speak to his general health. 

I’d say mask usage is less than 30% in most places I frequent these days. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on May 04, 2021, 10:33:18 AM
Lots of commentary across yesterday's news outlets on how attainable herd immunity will really be - from the NY Times:

"But daily vaccination rates are slipping, and there is widespread consensus among scientists and public health experts that the herd immunity threshold is not attainable — at least not in the foreseeable future, and perhaps not ever."

"Instead, they are coming to the conclusion that rather than making a long-promised exit, the virus will most likely become a manageable threat that will continue to circulate in the United States for years to come, still causing hospitalizations and deaths but in much smaller numbers."

"Early on, the target herd immunity threshold was estimated to be about 60 to 70 percent of the population."

"But as vaccines were developed and distribution ramped up through the winter and into the spring, estimates of the threshold began to rise. That is because the initial calculations were based on the contagiousness of the original version of the virus. The predominant variant now circulating in the United States, called B.1.1.7 and first identified in Britain, is about 60 percent more transmissible."

"As a result, experts now calculate the herd immunity threshold to be at least 80 percent. If even more contagious variants develop, or if scientists find that immunized people can still transmit the virus, the calculation will have to be revised upward again."

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/health/covid-herd-immunity-vaccine.html


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 04, 2021, 11:19:55 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/PO8NLZG.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on May 04, 2021, 12:03:15 PM
I'd like to see the methodology of how they came up with that graphic. Most of Minnesota (outside of the MSP metro, Rochester, and the reservations) is much, much less likely to get vaccinated against COVID. Especially 3 in the middle where less than 25% of the entire population have gotten vaccinated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 04, 2021, 12:44:24 PM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on May 04, 2021, 10:33:18 AM
Lots of commentary across yesterday's news outlets on how attainable herd immunity will really be - from the NY Times:

"But daily vaccination rates are slipping, and there is widespread consensus among scientists and public health experts that the herd immunity threshold is not attainable — at least not in the foreseeable future, and perhaps not ever."

"Instead, they are coming to the conclusion that rather than making a long-promised exit, the virus will most likely become a manageable threat that will continue to circulate in the United States for years to come, still causing hospitalizations and deaths but in much smaller numbers."

"Early on, the target herd immunity threshold was estimated to be about 60 to 70 percent of the population."

"But as vaccines were developed and distribution ramped up through the winter and into the spring, estimates of the threshold began to rise. That is because the initial calculations were based on the contagiousness of the original version of the virus. The predominant variant now circulating in the United States, called B.1.1.7 and first identified in Britain, is about 60 percent more transmissible."

"As a result, experts now calculate the herd immunity threshold to be at least 80 percent. If even more contagious variants develop, or if scientists find that immunized people can still transmit the virus, the calculation will have to be revised upward again."

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/health/covid-herd-immunity-vaccine.html



what this does not take into account is just how many folks have had this virus but didnt know it or was so mild it wasnt reported

for this reason I think herd immunity might be making its self known right now and to say it requires 80% just is not correct

IMHO
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 04, 2021, 01:01:49 PM
https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1389591191310667780
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 04, 2021, 01:20:59 PM
I'm fine with this. Moderna and Pfizer are trying to combine the Covid shot with a flu shot.

Bring it on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 04, 2021, 01:41:20 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on May 04, 2021, 12:03:15 PM
I'd like to see the methodology of how they came up with that graphic. Most of Minnesota (outside of the MSP metro, Rochester, and the reservations) is much, much less likely to get vaccinated against COVID. Especially 3 in the middle where less than 25% of the entire population have gotten vaccinated.
yup, looks like bullsh!t to me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2021, 04:44:27 PM
I've seen estimates of herd "immunity" at being around 70%, but our kids are not yet vaccinated.  They also are experiencing more infections how than before perhaps because of that, in part.

If an infectious person passes it on to say three people on average, and two are vaccinated or otherwise resistant, they might now pass it on to only one person, which would be steady state, R naught at unity.  You reach the point where infected people don't pass it on to anyone, and then it largely subsides, variants aside.

This one was bad because so many were asymptomatic for fairly long periods of time.  I think the flu gets you sick about the time it becomes infectious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 04, 2021, 05:27:10 PM
If you look nationally, the post-holiday surge finally subsided in late Feb. At that point it slowly declined before rising again with the Michigan spike, but for the last 2-3 weeks has again declined markedly--IMHO largely due to increased vaccination.

Supposedly kids 12-15 will be approved for vaccination next week, which adds another demographic to herd immunity. 

Another <2 months, and everyone who wants a vax will have had theirs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2021, 05:42:25 PM
Europe has a higher level of vaccination resistance than does the US, across the board, but especially in Poland.

They seem not to trust their governments as much.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 04, 2021, 06:02:50 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 04, 2021, 05:42:25 PM
Europe has a higher level of vaccination resistance than does the US, across the board, but especially in Poland.

They seem not to trust their governments as much.
what vaccine is Poland being given
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2021, 06:10:18 PM
He said in April, 5 million doses of the vaccines by Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech and AstraZeneca should arrive in Poland, adding that starting in the second half of April, the first tranche of the vaccine developed by Johnson & Johnson should be added to the mix, of which Poland ordered a total of 16 million doses.

Poland plans to have 20 million people vaccinated by the end of the second quarter, the government vaccine coordinator Michal Dworczyk said on Tuesday.


Anti-vaccine sentiment rife in Poland | Europe| News and current affairs from around the continent | DW | 31.12.2020 (https://www.dw.com/en/anti-vaccine-sentiment-rife-in-poland/a-56100878)

Tomasz Sobierajski, a sociologist and public health expert at Warsaw University, says the government is spreading "exaggerated success propaganda." While he does not identify as an anti-vaxxer, he refuses to treat inoculation skeptics as "crazy." Sobierajski says the government carries responsibly for widespread mistrust against vaccinations as it has failed to properly educate the public. Speaking to Polish daily Gazeta Wyborcza, Sobierajski said "unlike in western countries, our opinions on vaccinations are based on superstition and magic spells."

He criticizes that barely anyone is explaining to ordinary Poles that the coronavirus vaccine does not manipulate human genes (https://www.dw.com/en/faq-covid-19-vaccinations-what-you-need-to-know/a-56042434), as many falsely believe. The sociologist is not surprised that surveys show only 4 to 5% of Poles want to get inoculated. He says that whereas many western Europeans opt to get flu jabs, on average only 4% of Poles do so. That is why Sobierajski warns Poland will "effectively endure the despair of this pandemic for a long time to come."

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 04, 2021, 06:17:39 PM
Which parts of Europe are likely to be most hesitant about a COVID-19 vaccine? | Euronews (https://www.euronews.com/2020/12/09/which-parts-of-europe-are-likely-to-be-most-hesitant-about-a-covid-19-vaccine)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 05, 2021, 12:33:14 AM
:57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 05, 2021, 07:47:02 AM
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/detroit-city/2021/05/04/detroit-michigan-knocks-doors-promote-neighborhood-walk-vaccine-clinics-covid-19/4923893001/?utm_source=detroitnews-Daily%20Briefing&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily_briefing&utm_term=list_article_thumb

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 05, 2021, 08:48:02 AM
For all "we" criticize about Americans and the US, which is fine with me, often folks don't realize Europe is worse in some respects, perhaps many respects.

I had friends and coworkers in Europe, same level as me or one notch higher, a fair number.  Their general standard of living was what mine could be in the US on about half my salary.  They seemed really pinched, and they often remarked how much better we had it here in the States financially.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 05, 2021, 08:55:09 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/QjSmbTz.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 06, 2021, 07:57:47 AM
Wisconsin data by age grouping. Pretty staggering numbers. 9.2% of cases resulted in 78.2% of the deaths.

(https://i.imgur.com/nWK63Ys.png)


(https://i.imgur.com/ybUSaNQ.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 06, 2021, 09:18:28 AM
Here are some historical numbers for the Austin area.



7 Day AvgCasesAdmitsHospICUVent
1-Jan479.5769.28422.14133.4376.57
1-Feb557.2868.42538.1415797
1-Mar242.1429.42284.2893.2868.42
1-Apr10316.42146.1453.5730.57
1-May94.7117132.8645.2923.27

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 06, 2021, 09:35:42 AM
Mostly all good trends there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 06, 2021, 10:29:10 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 06, 2021, 09:35:42 AM
Mostly all good trends there.
Yup.

We've been puzzling about how the admits numbers seem to be leveling off, but the ICU/vent numbers are still showing declines.  One theory, is that overall there are now fewer really serious cases, so hospitals are now admitting some of the less severe cases for treatment-- cases they would have sent home to convalesce and recover on their own, a few months ago.  No real way to confirm that, it's just a theory.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 06, 2021, 10:35:16 AM
A very valid theory for sure. Then there is that thing about what the hospitals make from treating Covid cases. Can't really discount that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 06, 2021, 11:15:50 AM
Covid booster shot: Moderna says vaccine generates promising immune response against variants (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/05/covid-booster-shot-moderna-says-vaccine-generates-promising-immune-response-against-variants.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on May 06, 2021, 11:37:59 AM
Guidance just came out in Minnesota on winding down capacity limits and mask mandates. 

https://twitter.com/jcjacobsen/status/1390326885675110405?s=20
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 06, 2021, 01:05:10 PM
I just read that over 4000 people have died after receiving their covid shots in the US

I had no idea there were that many deaths from the vaccination shots

course it goes on to say there is no proven correlation between the vaccines other then J&J's and these deaths

kinda makes one pause
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 06, 2021, 01:08:05 PM
gotta have more data

most could have been in their late 80s and 90s and died from other causes
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 06, 2021, 01:31:05 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 06, 2021, 01:08:05 PM
gotta have more data

most could have been in their late 80s and 90s and died from other causes
Im only going by this


https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/adverse-events.html


I just had no idea the number of deaths was that high

Im still going to be vaccinated but the media ought to be more forthcoming
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 06, 2021, 01:43:38 PM
December 14, 2020, through May 3, 2021. During this time, VAERS received 4,178 reports of death (0.0017%) among people who received a COVID-19 vaccine.

so, the question is:  is this number more than normal for this time frame in this group of people?

would there normally be 4,000 deaths in this group and the increase is about 178?

would be interested to know.......... how many of these deaths were reported as COVID?  How many from traffic accidents or gun shot wounds?

because as time goes on, since the elderly were the first to get vaccines, more vaccinated folks are going to die.  The number will get larger daily 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 06, 2021, 01:58:27 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 06, 2021, 01:43:38 PM
December 14, 2020, through May 3, 2021. During this time, VAERS received 4,178 reports of death (0.0017%) among people who received a COVID-19 vaccine.

so, the question is:  is this number more than normal for this time frame in this group of people?

would there normally be 4,000 deaths in this group and the increase is about 178?

would be interested to know.......... how many of these deaths were reported as COVID?  How many from traffic accidents or gun shot wounds?

because as time goes on, since the elderly were the first to get vaccines, more vaccinated folks are going to die.  The number will get larger daily
again the report says there is no found correlation between these deaths and the vaccine other then the J&J vaccine deaths
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 06, 2021, 02:27:01 PM
no reason to pause
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 06, 2021, 02:53:55 PM
Out of 100 million you had 4,000 deaths?

Out of 100 million unvaccinated in the same age group, how many deaths were there?

we normally have just under 3 million deaths a year in the US in a population of about 330 million, call it one percent or so.  So, out of 100 million we'd expect to have 100,000 deaths divided by 4, or 250,000, due to all causes.

You have to compare versus a control group.

(And yes,  the 100 million or so vaccinated were not all vaccinated on Jan 1 of course, so it's spread out.)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 06, 2021, 02:57:13 PM
all very good points

I hope there is no correlation 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 08, 2021, 10:53:26 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/weLcH1O.png)(https://i.imgur.com/kWxxgG0.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 08, 2021, 10:54:21 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/gMd0Tvf.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 08, 2021, 11:03:21 AM
We need to double that number, at least. Lots of reluctance/refusal out there. Far too many are taking a pass.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 08, 2021, 11:13:16 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 08, 2021, 11:03:21 AM
We need to double that number, at least. Lots of reluctance/refusal out there. Far too many are taking a pass.
currently we are on track to reach 65% by July 22

herd immunity is within reach

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 09, 2021, 08:37:39 AM
Are people still wearing masks?

I do not, unless it's required.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 09, 2021, 08:39:14 AM
not unless it's required

and the sign might still be posted, but no one says a thing if you don't have a mask on
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 09, 2021, 09:00:40 AM
Well...

Coronavirus & Lab Leak: Theory Looking Plausible | National Review (https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/wade-on-the-lab-leak-theory-of-covid/)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 09, 2021, 09:16:21 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 09, 2021, 09:00:40 AM
Well...

Coronavirus & Lab Leak: Theory Looking Plausible | National Review (https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/wade-on-the-lab-leak-theory-of-covid/)


Paywall so I couldn't read it.


But, I thought we pretty much already knew it leaked from a lab, right?  Not that it was intentionally released, but there's plenty of evidence that points to it being cultivated in a lab.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 09, 2021, 09:22:33 AM
Quote from: utee94 on May 09, 2021, 09:16:21 AM
Paywall so I couldn't read it.


But, I thought we pretty much already knew it leaked from a lab, right?  Not that it was intentionally released, but there's plenty of evidence that points to it being cultivated in a lab.
Nicholas Wade is not an alarmist, and not a conspiracy theorist. He is one of the most eminent science journalists in the country, having done stints at Science and the New York Times, and he has released a very long, technical, and (if you’re into that sort of thing) riveting article on Medium weighing the evidence on the origin of COVID-19 (https://nicholaswade.medium.com/origin-of-covid-following-the-clues-6f03564c038). Did it emerge naturally from an animal species to infect people in Wuhan, possibly at a wet market? Or did it leak out from the Wuhan Institute of Virology?

Where I think it is most convincing is in describing the lack of plausibility of natural emergence:

Quote
No one has found the bat population that was the source of SARS2, if indeed it ever infected bats. No intermediate host has presented itself, despite an intensive search by Chinese authorities that included the testing of 80,000 animals. There is no evidence of the virus making multiple independent jumps from its intermediate host to people, as both the SARS1 and MERS viruses did. There is no evidence from hospital surveillance records of the epidemic gathering strength in the population as the virus evolved. There is no explanation of why a natural epidemic should break out in Wuhan and nowhere else. There is no good explanation of how the virus acquired its furin cleavage site, which no other SARS-related beta-coronavirus possesses, nor why the site is composed of human-preferred codons. The natural emergence theory battles a bristling array of implausibilities.
Wade weighed up what kind of evidence we do have about the virus itself, the lab, the safety protocols, and the grants funded by the NIH and NIAD, under Doctors Francis Collins and Anthony Fauci. They, and common sense, all point in one direction:

Quote
Dr. Shi set out to create novel coronaviruses with the highest possible infectivity for human cells. Her plan was to take genes that coded for spike proteins possessing a variety of measured affinities for human cells, ranging from high to low. She would insert these spike genes one by one into the backbone of a number of viral genomes (“reverse genetics” and “infectious clone technology”), creating a series of chimeric viruses. These chimeric viruses would then be tested for their ability to attack human cell cultures (“in vitro”) and humanized mice (“in vivo”). And this information would help predict the likelihood of “spillover,” the jump of a coronavirus from bats to people.
The methodical approach was designed to find the best combination of coronavirus backbone and spike protein for infecting human cells. The approach could have generated SARS2-like viruses, and indeed may have created the SARS2 virus itself with the right combination of virus backbone and spike protein.
It cannot yet be stated that Dr. Shi did or did not generate SARS2 in her lab because her records have been sealed, but it seems she was certainly on the right track to have done so.
In other words, this is no longer really just a lab-leak theory; the evidence points to a lab-created theory, too. Now, before you go off, the evidence still also points to something like accident. But a reckless one and an eminently foreseeable one. One that virologists, and their sponsors, such as Dr. Anthony Fauci, were warned about.

Wade also weighs in on the credulity of other science journalists, and the larger media — their inherent bias against theories floated by Donald Trump himself.

Quote
People round the world who have been pretty much confined to their homes for the last year might like a better answer than their media are giving them. Perhaps one will emerge in time. After all, the more months pass without the natural emergence theory gaining a shred of supporting evidence, the less plausible it may seem. Perhaps the international community of virologists will come to be seen as a false and self-interested guide. The common sense perception that a pandemic breaking out in Wuhan might have something to do with a Wuhan lab cooking up novel viruses of maximal danger in unsafe conditions could eventually displace the ideological insistence that whatever Trump said can’t be true.
Indeed. What would that look like? Read the whole thing (https://nicholaswade.medium.com/origin-of-covid-following-the-clues-6f03564c038).


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 09, 2021, 10:52:02 AM
World data:

(https://i.imgur.com/nxTnfOc.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 10, 2021, 07:41:29 AM
Florida last week.

(https://i.imgur.com/j1vMLwZ.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on May 10, 2021, 09:39:44 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 08, 2021, 11:03:21 AM
We need to double that number, at least. Lots of reluctance/refusal out there. Far too many are taking a pass.
Yup. And a high number of the holdouts are very braggart about refusing to get vaccinated.

On the one hand live and let die. On the other hand, the more virus is circulating the more likely it is that one hits the mutation jackpot and beats the vaccines at rates above background noise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 10, 2021, 09:48:52 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on May 10, 2021, 09:39:44 AM
Yup. And a high number of the holdouts are very braggart about refusing to get vaccinated.

On the one hand live and let die. On the other hand, the more virus is circulating the more likely it is that one hits the mutation jackpot and beats the vaccines at rates above background noise.

The risk of this happening in the USA among scores of millions of unvaccinated Americans, is far FAR less than the risk of this happening elsewhere in the world where there will be BILLIONS of unvaccinated people for a very long time.  And if the mutation is virulent and infectious enough to work around the current vaccines, then it's going to make its way back into the USA quite easily, as more Americans begin traveling again, and more outsiders begin coming into the USA once again.

In other words, it's pretty much irrelevant whether or not enough Americans get the vaccine to push us to herd immunity, from the standpoint of avoiding dangerous mutations.

There are obviously plenty of other reasons for Americans to get vaccinated, not the least of which is avoiding getting sick.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 10, 2021, 09:54:18 AM
but, it's still a great idea and goal

such as cutting carbon emissions 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 10, 2021, 09:56:42 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 10, 2021, 09:54:18 AM
but, it's still a great idea and goal

such as cutting carbon emissions

Sure.  Lofty goals always look great on paper.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 10, 2021, 10:12:37 AM
but, it's great fun to shame the anti-vaxxers 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 10, 2021, 10:32:02 AM
I guess.  I don't really take much joy in noting the stupidity of others.  It generally just makes me sad.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 10, 2021, 10:33:46 AM
Many haven't got the vax for various reasons and it isn't just to be disageeable
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 10, 2021, 10:49:51 AM
various reasons or various good reasons?

the folks I know that haven't taken the shot for a good reason, have all had COVID.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 10, 2021, 10:52:21 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 10, 2021, 10:12:37 AM
but, it's great fun to shame the anti-vaxxers
All anti-vaxers aren't the same.
If someone is wary of a new vaccine because we haven't had the opportunity to run long-term studies on it, that's one thing.  
If someone holds the opinion of Jenny McCarthy over the entirety of science, then that's another.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 10, 2021, 11:00:00 AM
Pretty sure no one would take Jenny McCarthy's word on Putt-Putt or pickled Herring
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 10, 2021, 11:00:32 AM
Quote from: utee94 on May 10, 2021, 09:48:52 AM
The risk of this happening in the USA among scores of millions of unvaccinated Americans, is far FAR less than the risk of this happening elsewhere in the world where there will be BILLIONS of unvaccinated people for a very long time.  And if the mutation is virulent and infectious enough to work around the current vaccines, then it's going to make its way back into the USA quite easily, as more Americans begin traveling again, and more outsiders begin coming into the USA once again.

In other words, it's pretty much irrelevant whether or not enough Americans get the vaccine to push us to herd immunity, from the standpoint of avoiding dangerous mutations.

There are obviously plenty of other reasons for Americans to get vaccinated, not the least of which is avoiding getting sick. 
Obviously it doesn't matter whether the unvaccinated population is in America or in the third-world. Virus don't care.

But we should be encouraging everyone, everywhere, to get the vaccine... And once rollout occurs in the developed world, it's good policy to do anything we can to assist the third world in getting the vaccines too. In one sense it's the compassionate human thing to do; in another it's helping to reduce the risk of some strain developing there which gets around the vaccines and comes back to haunt us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 10, 2021, 11:02:55 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 10, 2021, 11:00:32 AM
Obviously it doesn't matter whether the unvaccinated population is in America or in the third-world. Virus don't care.
It terrifies me how many people aren't understanding this.
I specified it from day one that leaving it to the states to decide what to do was asinine because a virus knows no borders.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 10, 2021, 11:03:41 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 10, 2021, 10:52:21 AM
All anti-vaxers aren't the same.
If someone is wary of a new vaccine because we haven't had the opportunity to run long-term studies on it, that's one thing. 
If someone holds the opinion of Jenny McCarthy over the entirety of science, then that's another.



Completely agree.

On another board I frequent, there's a raging debate over whether or not parents should be vaccinating their sub-13-year-old kids.  Some parents that are happy to get the vaccine for themselves and assume whatever risks there might be, because they are likely lower risks than getting COVID itself, are hesitant to vaccinate their young children.  

The truth is that it IS a new vaccine that was fast-tracked, and the Moderna and Pfizer ARE new vaccine technologies where we just don't have any long term data to tell us what the effects might be, even on adults, much less children whose bodies are still growing and changing rapidly at those ages.

And because the risks of serious harm from COVID for young children are low, plus the risks of them transmitting the virus to others are also low, the case for vaccinating them is not quite as compelling, even compared to other viruses like flu which are more harmful to children than COVID has been, thus far.

My kids are 13 and 11 and after a discussion with their doctors, I'll get them vaccinated when they are eligible.  But if my kids were 6 or 8?  I'd likely pause and wait for more data.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 10, 2021, 11:14:36 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 10, 2021, 11:02:55 AM
It terrifies me how many people aren't understanding this.
I specified it from day one that leaving it to the states to decide what to do was asinine because a virus knows no borders. 

You're hardly the world wide leader on that,pretty much anyone recognizes imaginary boundries or the laws laid down with in won't stop the wrath of.....the CCP
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 10, 2021, 11:28:34 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 10, 2021, 10:52:21 AM

If someone is wary of a new vaccine because we haven't had the opportunity to run long-term studies on it, that's one thing. 


I understand this.  I certainly hope there aren't a large percentage of paranoid folks out there.

A better consistent message with more education regarding the vaccines might help.  But, for some folks, they are just afraid.

Some folks are also afraid of the Virus, or Bats, or spiders.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 10, 2021, 12:29:13 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 10, 2021, 11:02:55 AM
It terrifies me how many people aren't understanding this.
I specified it from day one that leaving it to the states to decide what to do was asinine because a virus knows no borders. 

Its a state matter by law

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 10, 2021, 12:38:24 PM
The Feds can propose guidelines, but it's up to the states to decide what to do.  It's our system, with a few exceptions.

It makes sense to me that what is needed for NYC might not be the ideal solution for up state NY, much less Idaho.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 10, 2021, 12:46:36 PM
just as the World Health Organization can propose guidelines and suggestions for the entire world, but each country acts on their own.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 10, 2021, 03:45:02 PM
Speaking of WHO--

A World Health Organization official said Monday it is reclassifying the highly contagious triple-mutant Covid variant spreading in India as a "variant of concern," indicating that it's become a global health threat.

Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO's technical lead for Covid-19, said the agency will provide more details in its weekly situation report on the pandemic Tuesday but added that the variant, known as B.1.617, has been found in preliminary studies to spread more easily than the original virus and there is some evidence it may able to evade some of the protections provided by vaccines.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/05/10/who-classifies-triple-mutant-covid-variant-from-india-as-global-health-risk-.html

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 10, 2021, 06:57:11 PM

Pfizer approved for kids

https://www.foxnews.com/health/fda-covid-pfizer-vaccine-green-light-kids-12-15
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 10, 2021, 07:00:15 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 10, 2021, 03:45:02 PM
Speaking of WHO--

A World Health Organization official said Monday it is reclassifying the highly contagious triple-mutant Covid variant spreading in India as a "variant of concern," indicating that it's become a global health threat.

Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO's technical lead for Covid-19, said the agency will provide more details in its weekly situation report on the pandemic Tuesday but added that the variant, known as B.1.617, has been found in preliminary studies to spread more easily than the original virus and there is some evidence it may able to evade some of the protections provided by vaccines.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/05/10/who-classifies-triple-mutant-covid-variant-from-india-as-global-health-risk-.html

The shots, however, are still considered effective.
Just wanted to add a sentence you left off
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 10, 2021, 07:24:50 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 10, 2021, 07:00:15 PM
Just wanted to add a sentence you left off

Sure.  80% effective can still be called effective.

20% effective can also still be called effective.

You seem to take this all personally, that's sort of odd.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 10, 2021, 07:26:18 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 10, 2021, 06:57:11 PM
Pfizer approved for kids

https://www.foxnews.com/health/fda-covid-pfizer-vaccine-green-light-kids-12-15
Anyway, glad to see Pfizer's approved for the kiddos.

I'll likely hold out until J&J gets approved, so my kids only have to go through it once.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 10, 2021, 07:29:12 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 10, 2021, 07:24:50 PM
Sure.  80% effective can still be called effective.

20% effective can also still be called effective.

You seem to take this all personally, that's sort of odd.
the fact is we just dont know yet but when reporting such adverse news about the "new strain" in India I just think we should report that fact also

simple

I never take anything on this forum personally

poopoo head
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 10, 2021, 07:48:04 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 10, 2021, 07:29:12 PM
the fact is we just dont know yet but when reporting such adverse news about the "new strain" in India I just think we should report that fact also

simple

I never take anything on this forum personally

poopoo head
Well then to be completely clear, they don't really know that the current vaccine choices actually ARE "effective."  They're "considered effective" but there's not any peer-reviewed study to back that up.

So I'm gonna go ahead and stick with what I posted.  It's not incorrect, it's not even misleading, and it's important.  I'm not somehow invested personally in bringing bad news or something weird like that, I sincerely want the virus to stop harming people and let the world get back to normal.

I'm trained as a scientist and an engineer and I approach these things in a complete unbiased and rational way.  I've been surprised and pleased that we've been able to bring vaccines to bear against this virus so quickly and at such large scale, I didn't believe that was possible and I'm delighted to be wrong about that.

But ignoring all of the potential issues with mutated global variants isn't going to help the world, in fact it can only hurt.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 10, 2021, 08:05:16 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 10, 2021, 07:48:04 PM
Well then to be completely clear, they don't really know that the current vaccine choices actually ARE "effective."  They're "considered effective" but there's not any peer-reviewed study to back that up.

So I'm gonna go ahead and stick with what I posted.  It's not incorrect, it's not even misleading, and it's important.  I'm not somehow invested personally in bringing bad news or something weird like that, I sincerely want the virus to stop harming people and let the world get back to normal.

I'm trained as a scientist and an engineer and I approach these things in a complete unbiased and rational way.  I've been surprised and pleased that we've been able to bring vaccines to bear against this virus so quickly and at such large scale, I didn't believe that was possible and I'm delighted to be wrong about that.

But ignoring all of the potential issues with mutated global variants isn't going to help the world, in fact it can only hurt.


Just got your six

I dont want anybody thinking you posted an article out of context

I think its important to post the sentence I pointed out which you failed to post

If the vaccines dont work against a new strain then we need to know it if we dont know yet we need to know that too
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 10, 2021, 08:08:44 PM
Here is another article on the subject you might find interesting

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/the-good-news-is-that-vaccines-work-against-india-strain-the-bad-news-2434326
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on May 10, 2021, 10:56:58 PM
I'll be sending my 12yr old to the Pfizer line.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on May 10, 2021, 11:30:57 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 10, 2021, 07:48:04 PM
Well then to be completely clear, they don't really know that the current vaccine choices actually ARE "effective."  They're "considered effective" but there's not any peer-reviewed study to back that up.




The peer-reviewed stage of approval is one of several time-consuming steps the FDA skipped in order to rush out a vaccine shot. Obviously a calculated risk taken for the sake of time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 10, 2021, 11:49:32 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 10, 2021, 07:48:04 PM
Well then to be completely clear, they don't really know that the current vaccine choices actually ARE "effective."  They're "considered effective" but there's not any peer-reviewed study to back that up.




this is news to me

I knew they skipped the normal peer review to rush these vaccines out the door but it is my understanding that both vaccines have been peer reviewed since their release with very good results

am I wrong

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/01/peer-reviewed-data-show-high-protection-leading-covid-vaccines

https://www.aha.org/news/headline/2020-12-10-nejm-releases-impressive-peer-reviewed-data-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 11, 2021, 06:39:14 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 10, 2021, 11:28:34 AM
Some folks are also afraid of the Virus, or Bats, or spiders.
Or idgits pounding Budwater while swinging clubs
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 11, 2021, 07:40:13 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/YfSU7oT.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 11, 2021, 07:48:39 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 10, 2021, 08:05:16 PM
Just got your six

I dont want anybody thinking you posted an article out of context

I think its important to post the sentence I pointed out which you failed to post

If the vaccines dont work against a new strain then we need to know it if we dont know yet we need to know that too
That's fair.  

Quote from: longhorn320 on May 10, 2021, 11:49:32 PM
this is news to me

I knew they skipped the normal peer review to rush these vaccines out the door but it is my understanding that both vaccines have been peer reviewed since their release with very good results

am I wrong

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/01/peer-reviewed-data-show-high-protection-leading-covid-vaccines

https://www.aha.org/news/headline/2020-12-10-nejm-releases-impressive-peer-reviewed-data-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine

We're talking, specifically, about the strain in India.  Those links are older and don't address it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 11, 2021, 08:06:06 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/kgTqr7n.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 11, 2021, 08:34:28 AM
Here ya go lh320, you prefer when I post good news:

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1391096624059883522?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1391096624059883522%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.surlyhorns.com%2Fboard%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FEricTopol%2Fstatus%2F1391096624059883522
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 11, 2021, 10:12:53 AM
Quote from: utee94 on May 11, 2021, 07:48:39 AM
That's fair. 

We're talking, specifically, about the strain in India.  Those links are older and don't address it.
OK I completely misunderstood your post

I thought you were saying the vaccines had never been peer reviewed

when you were actually saying the new vaccines had not been peer reviewed against the new strain in India

sorry 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 11, 2021, 10:20:02 AM
so, not talking about any strain from or in Indai or any other strains that may be coming..........

it does appear that the vaccines have been very effective vs the popular strains here in the USA

I haven't heard anything about vaccinated folks getting/testing positive for COVID, must less actually being hospitalized.

I assume that would be a BIG story
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 11, 2021, 10:27:08 AM
Quote from: utee94 on May 11, 2021, 08:34:28 AM
Here ya go lh320, you prefer when I post good news:



I like good news that is true

But if it must be bad we need to know it

In short post all the news and Im happy

I much prefer folks such as yourself not just accept everything that gets printed but who continue to look at things through

skeptical eyes until proven so feel free to post as much bad news as you wish just as long as you dont have some hidden agenda

to only filter bad news and ignore the good
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 11, 2021, 10:28:11 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 11, 2021, 10:20:02 AM
so, not talking about any strain from or in Indai or any other strains that may be coming..........

it does appear that the vaccines have been very effective vs the popular strains here in the USA

I haven't heard anything about vaccinated folks getting/testing positive for COVID, must less actually being hospitalized.

I assume that would be a BIG story
Here too 


I think youre right
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2021, 11:57:58 AM
COVID-19 Breakthrough Case Investigations and Reporting | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html)

As of April 26, 2021, more than 95 million people (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) in the United States had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. During the same time, CDC received reports of vaccine breakthrough infections from 46 U.S. states and territories.
Total number of vaccine breakthrough infections reported to CDC
[th]Total number of vaccine breakthrough infections reported to CDC[/th]
[th]9,245[/th]
Females5,827 (63%)
People aged ≥60 years4,245 (45%)
Asymptomatic infections2,525 (27%)
Hospitalizations*835 (9%)
Deaths†132 (1%)
*241 (29%) of the 835 hospitalizations were reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19.
†20 (15%) of the 132 fatal cases were reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19.
How to interpret these data
It is important to note that reported vaccine breakthrough cases will represent an undercount. This surveillance system is passive and relies on voluntary reporting from state health departments which may not be complete.  Also, not all real-world breakthrough cases will be identified because of lack of testing. This is particularly true in instances of asymptomatic or mild illness. These surveillance data are a snapshot and help identify patterns and look for signals among vaccine breakthrough cases.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2021, 11:59:46 AM
DPH Releases Data on Covid-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Cases Highlighting Vaccine Effectiveness (https://portal.ct.gov/DPH/Press-Room/Press-Releases---2021/DPH-Releases-Data-on-Covid-19-Vaccine-Breakthrough-Cases-Highlighting-Vaccine-Effectiveness)

Of the 1,467,189 persons who have completed their vaccine series, 242 have been confirmed as contracting COVID-19.  Of those, 109 (45%) had no symptoms of the disease.  

Three deaths have occurred among the 242 vaccine breakthrough cases.  All three individuals were confirmed to have had underlying medical conditions and were in the following age groups:  55-64 (1), 65-74 (1), and 75+ (1).  Nationally, the CDC has reported a total of 132 vaccine breakthrough deaths.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 11, 2021, 12:21:04 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 11, 2021, 10:20:02 AM
so, not talking about any strain from or in Indai or any other strains that may be coming..........

it does appear that the vaccines have been very effective vs the popular strains here in the USA

I haven't heard anything about vaccinated folks getting/testing positive for COVID, must less actually being hospitalized.

I assume that would be a BIG story
Yeah, they call them "breakthrough cases" and CD just posted some data about them.

The thing to keep in mind, though, is that the rates of breakthrough are still much lower than the expected efficacy rates would indicate, so in fact the efficacy is even higher than the clinical trials indicated they would be.

To summarize-- the above is very good news.  I think some people were under the impression that the vaccine would completely prevent infection, but it doesn't.  It just prevents it 99.96% of the time...

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 11, 2021, 12:38:30 PM
The MSM wants us to get vaccinated so bad that they tend to overlook these breakthrough cases

Ive seen very little mention of them

still they are well within acceptable limits so all appears well
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 11, 2021, 01:23:24 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 11, 2021, 12:21:04 PM
To summarize-- the above is very good news.  I think some people were under the impression that the vaccine would completely prevent infection, but it doesn't.  It just prevents it 99.96% of the time...


that a good enuff percentage for me

about the same percentage that Nebraska used to win vs Oklahoma State and Kansas St. in the 60s, 70's, 80's and 90's
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 11, 2021, 01:24:35 PM
It's hard...

The very existence of breakthrough cases are used by the sort of people who don't want the vaccine in a sort of "see, it doesn't even mean I won't get COVID!" sort of mindset. 

But... We know [and have known] this about vaccines. Some people don't take well to them. They're not 100% and haven't been sold as being 100% effective. 

That is WHY we ask everyone to get them... Because if 95% of America gets the vaccine and they're 95% effective, that puts us WELL above the herd immunity threshold where R0 <<<< 1. 

It doesn't mean that COVID magically and immediately goes away, but it should mean that any local outbreaks will be small and not spread widely.

(Note: of course 94's point still holds... We need the rest of the world to do this too. Much like today we have incursions of things like measles from other nations that don't have our vaccine numbers--and those spread due to idiot anti-vaxxers here--we can't globally eradicate COVID unless the rest of the world has very high vaccination rates too. Otherwise we're probably still looking at annual boosters if the protection of the vaccine wanes too much over time.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2021, 01:41:25 PM
The COVID vaccines are apparently (clinically) more effective than many "normal" vaccines that have almost eliminated various and sundry.  We rarely have polio today because most of us are vaccinated.  Small pox has been eradicated.

Most of the deaths in the Civil War were from disease, not combat.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 11, 2021, 01:49:07 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 11, 2021, 12:38:30 PM
The MSM wants us to get vaccinated so bad that they tend to overlook these breakthrough cases

Ive seen very little mention of them

still they are well within acceptable limits so all appears well
This seems like one of the few areas where the MSM don't engage in doomsday panic porn.  I'm not sure why not, but I'm glad they've chosen this path, for this particular issue at least.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 11, 2021, 02:08:08 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 10, 2021, 12:29:13 PM
Its a state matter by law


Yes, but you knew what I meant (no, you didn't know what I meant).
The federal gov't under different leadership would have been prudent to release their data and strong suggestions.  You know, influence.  And the 50 different states looking around for answers would have had one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2021, 02:42:27 PM
I think the Feds COULD have presented a more unified and consistent front early on, but there was a lot of misinformation out there at the time that was pretty scary.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 11, 2021, 02:44:11 PM
I think the Feds SHOULD have a more unified and consistent front now.  Regarding COVID and the Vaccines

but, they don't

meet the new boss, same as the old boss
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2021, 02:47:43 PM
My daughter in France has complained several times about this very issue, in France.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 11, 2021, 02:51:10 PM
The former regime influenced/pressured the CDC on its public messages.  I don't know why anything beyond that matters.  More people died than if a mannequin had been in office.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2021, 02:52:55 PM
Most of the public message came from Birx and Fauci, as I recall.  There was somebody else who said things at times that were, a bit odd.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 11, 2021, 03:07:58 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 11, 2021, 02:08:08 PM
Yes, but you knew what I meant (no, you didn't know what I meant).
The federal gov't under different leadership would have been prudent to release their data and strong suggestions.  You know, influence.  And the 50 different states looking around for answers would have had one.
Im not sure which states youre talking about

I dont think Texas leaders were confused and looking around for answers

same for Florida and maybe most states

the only really confused states in my mind was NY and CA

its my memory that even when the Feds issued suggestions the states did pretty much what they wanted to do
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 11, 2021, 03:13:32 PM
Y'all are getting political, and you know it.  I swear you're like a bunch of 5 year olds.


Stop it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 11, 2021, 03:18:13 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 11, 2021, 03:13:32 PM
Y'all are getting political, and you know it.  I swear you're like a bunch of 5 year olds.


Stop it.
I dont think you realize just how much restraint I showed in my post utee

I should be given a medal
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on May 12, 2021, 11:50:28 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 11, 2021, 01:23:24 PM
that a good enuff percentage for me

about the same percentage that Nebraska used to win vs Oklahoma State and Kansas St. in the 60s, 70's, 80's and 90's
I still remember what a big deal it was to our resident KSU fans when KSU finally beat NU in '98.  40-30!  And I seem to recall that near the end of the game somebody tackled the NU QB (was it Eric Crouch?) and grabbed his helmet and twisted it so bad it looked like his head was coming off.  Where are those guys these days?  Skicat, WC4E, and a couple more whose names have escaped my fading memory.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 12, 2021, 12:04:57 PM
those purple kitties are still around, I shoot them texts and emails a few times a year

both are busy enough with other things and not as excited about college football to stop by here and chat.  They both been invited more than a few times.


(https://www.huskermax.com/images/grab.jpg)(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DZpb8dEVQAAEFoG.jpg)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on May 12, 2021, 12:10:09 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 10, 2021, 11:49:32 PM
this is news to me

I knew they skipped the normal peer review to rush these vaccines out the door but it is my understanding that both vaccines have been peer reviewed since their release with very good results

am I wrong

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/01/peer-reviewed-data-show-high-protection-leading-covid-vaccines

https://www.aha.org/news/headline/2020-12-10-nejm-releases-impressive-peer-reviewed-data-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine


Peer review isn't necessarily reason to take a breath and relax over the safety of what the FDA approves. Prescription benzodiazepines originally received their peer review for FDA approval for incapacitating asylum patients. Four decades later benzo variants like Klonopin, Xanax, Valium, and Ambien are among the most prescribed pills today, especially among Millennial and Gen Z women. Their addiction and abuse have resulted in many patients eventually using heroin and meth as substitute.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 12, 2021, 12:21:47 PM
Covid: Serious failures in WHO and global response, report finds - BBC News (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-57085505)

I was on 8 flights in February 2020. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 12, 2021, 01:26:31 PM
To prevent another catastrophic pandemic, the report suggests key reforms:

A new global threats council should be created with the power to hold countries accountable
There should be a disease surveillance system to publish information without the approval of countries concerned


_________________________________________________________________________________________

and how does an organization hold China accountable?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 12, 2021, 01:54:20 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 12, 2021, 01:26:31 PM
To prevent another catastrophic pandemic, the report suggests key reforms:

A new global threats council should be created with the power to hold countries accountable
There should be a disease surveillance system to publish information without the approval of countries concerned


_________________________________________________________________________________________

and how does an organization hold China accountable?
you stole my post
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 12, 2021, 02:29:01 PM
like most other do good organizations

burrfle

goals, not plans

do nothing and feel good about it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 12, 2021, 02:55:16 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 12, 2021, 01:26:31 PM
To prevent another catastrophic pandemic, the report suggests key reforms:

A new global threats council should be created with the power to hold countries accountable
There should be a disease surveillance system to publish information without the approval of countries concerned


_________________________________________________________________________________________

and how does an organization hold China accountable?
China isn't going to be held accountable for anything as long as it produces the world's EVERYTHING.  This isn't an accident.  It's called leverage, and they have it over everyone else on the planet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 12, 2021, 03:25:47 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 12, 2021, 02:55:16 PM
China isn't going to be held accountable for anything as long as it produces the world's EVERYTHING.  This isn't an accident.  It's called leverage, and they have it over everyone else on the planet.
thats true but it doesnt have to stay that way

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 12, 2021, 03:31:56 PM
but, it will because of the almighty $$$
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 12, 2021, 03:41:04 PM
Oddly, China is slowly becoming a victim of its own success... With rising prosperity comes rising labor costs, which shift low-skill labor increasingly elsewhere. 

One of the big areas where one may still look for cheap labor is Africa... If nations there ever get their political stability in order enough to be "safe" from a foreign investment perspective.

Which is why there's a country that's devoting TONS of capital and effort in order to develop Africa to that level of stability... And of course that country is China. 

(To be fair, it's also about natural resources--much of China's investment is to secure development of those resources. Their investment isn't only about low-cost labor.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 12, 2021, 04:01:53 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 12, 2021, 03:41:04 PM
Oddly, China is slowly becoming a victim of its own success... With rising prosperity comes rising labor costs, which shift low-skill labor increasingly elsewhere.

One of the big areas where one may still look for cheap labor is Africa... If nations there ever get their political stability in order enough to be "safe" from a foreign investment perspective.

Which is why there's a country that's devoting TONS of capital and effort in order to develop Africa to that level of stability... And of course that country is China.

(To be fair, it's also about natural resources--much of China's investment is to secure development of those resources. Their investment isn't only about low-cost labor.)
Yup, we've been slowly moving some of our manufacturing out of China and into places like Indonesia and the Philippines in recent years. 

Do I recall correctly, that a fair bit of HDD manufacturing is done in the Philippines too?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 12, 2021, 04:29:30 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 12, 2021, 04:01:53 PM
Yup, we've been slowly moving some of our manufacturing out of China and into places like Indonesia and the Philippines in recent years. 

Do I recall correctly, that a fair bit of HDD manufacturing is done in the Philippines too?
We don't do anything in the Philippines; all HDD for us is Thailand. Looks like the #3 market share guy does production there though. 

Thailand is the big one for us and our main competitor. Malaysia used to be big, but as desktop/notebook HDD volumes disappeared, the production is now consolidated to Thailand and those factories in Malaysia were closed. Good thing I got a trip to Kuala Lumpur a couple years ago for a customer factory audit before that happened lol... 

No HDD manufacturing in China that I'm aware of (definitely none for us), but we do have some retail SSD packaging/test going on there. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 12, 2021, 09:04:15 PM
Interesting strategy from Ohio governor, I like it!

https://twitter.com/GovMikeDeWine/status/1392597056968134657?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1392597056968134657%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.surlyhorns.com%2Fboard%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FGovMikeDeWine%2Fstatus%2F1392597056968134657
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 12, 2021, 09:04:49 PM
And

https://twitter.com/GovMikeDeWine/status/1392597174014332929?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1392597174014332929%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.surlyhorns.com%2Fboard%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FGovMikeDeWine%2Fstatus%2F1392597174014332929
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 13, 2021, 07:33:13 AM
Good ideas there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2021, 08:17:53 AM
I thought a few months back we'd end up with surplus vaccine here because of the antivaxx situation.  Seems to be happening, I'm seeing all sorts of inducements now to get a vaccine, versus hoping to find a place somewhere to provide it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 13, 2021, 08:52:03 AM
I should have held out for a free pint of beer, or something
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 13, 2021, 09:24:43 AM
Miss Jo on Twitter: "Dr Fauci wrote about the “risk worth taking” in 2011 in The Washington Post. That risk was “gain of function” experimentation on how viruses can mutate and jump to humans. It is extraordinary that he now denies supporting such research now. And disingenuous. https://t.co/jfF704vRvS" / Twitter (https://twitter.com/therealmissjo/status/1392665993395191812)


(https://i.imgur.com/HxfS2TR.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2021, 09:46:46 AM
He appears to be talking about influenza studies in Europe and the US about zoonotic behaviors.  I'd agree it's important to try and understand that.

His denial I think referred to GoF in terms of lethality in China, not the same thing, if I read this right.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 13, 2021, 09:47:35 AM
the real miss Jo?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on May 13, 2021, 10:55:53 AM
Covid crisis going from bad to worse in India. From TIME:

"The true scale of the COVID-19 outbreak in India is impossible to accurately quantify. Officially, confirmed daily cases are plateauing just under 400,000 but remain higher than any other country has seen during the pandemic. Experts warn that the real numbers are far bigger, and may still be rising fast as the virus rips through rural India, where two-thirds of the population lives and where testing infrastructure is frail. The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) estimates the true number of new daily infections is around 8 million—the equivalent of the entire population of New York City being infected every day. Official reports say 254,000 people have died in India since the start of the pandemic, but the IHME estimates the true toll is more than 750,000—a number researchers predict will double by the end of August. Since the beginning of May, dozens of bodies have washed up on the banks of the river Ganges, with some villagers saying they were forced to leave the dead in the water amid soaring funeral costs and shortages of wood for cremation."

https://time.com/6047957/india-covid-19-global-crisis-variant/

(https://i.imgur.com/hfVdH5L.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on May 13, 2021, 11:09:06 AM
Well the Wife had Pfizer #2 yesterday.  Started feeling real poorly last night, I think she even had a slight fever.  Today she feels horrible.  I think she will probably feel bad the rest of the day and hopefully tomorrow be better.  

I wonder if we applied the side effects that we are willing to accept from this vaccine to other vaccines what else could we stamp out?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 13, 2021, 11:58:02 AM
Quote from: Gigem on May 13, 2021, 11:09:06 AM
Well the Wife had Pfizer #2 yesterday.  Started feeling real poorly last night, I think she even had a slight fever.  Today she feels horrible.  I think she will probably feel bad the rest of the day and hopefully tomorrow be better. 

I wonder if we applied the side effects that we are willing to accept from this vaccine to other vaccines what else could we stamp out? 
Same with my daughter

she took 2 Advil and it made her feel better
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 13, 2021, 12:06:52 PM
I take Moderna #2 next Monday and am hoping for a mild-to-zero reaction.  I've got to grab the RV on Wednesday and prep it, then take it to Circuit of the Americas racetrack on Thursday to set up for the weekend-long NASCAR racing event.  

Important stuff!

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2021, 01:13:16 PM
I had a reaction to my second Shingles shot (Shingrix).  We went to bed and I had uncontrollable shivering, I put a pencil in my mouth it was so bad.  The wife got a Tylenol and it stopped in a few minutes.

COVID made me tired, but I figured that meant my immune system was reacting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 13, 2021, 02:06:36 PM
Fully vaccinated people no longer need to wear a face mask or stay six feet away from others in most settings, whether outdoors or indoors, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will say in updated public health guidance to be released Thursday, two people briefed on the matter told NBC News.

There are a handful of instances where people will still need to wear masks — in a health-care setting, at a business that requires them or on an airplane — even if they’ve had their final vaccine dose two or more weeks ago, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky is expected to tell reporters at a press briefing scheduled for 2 p.m. ET.

The announcement from the CDC comes just ahead of the Memorial Day and Fourth of July parade season. President Joe Biden has said he hopes to see enough Americans vaccinated by Independence Day to safely hold outdoor gatherings.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 13, 2021, 04:53:11 PM
Wow, well, thanks for the permission...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2021, 05:34:10 PM
To the extent these are guidelines, I have no issue, and a business can require them, also fine with me.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2021, 06:25:56 AM
Not fine with me.

The messaging sucks. 

Why should I wear a mask if I'm fully vaccinated and had Covid already?

Why should I get vaccinated if I still have to wear a mask?

How does anyone know who and who is not fully vaccinated?

What a crock O' shit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 14, 2021, 08:33:41 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2021, 06:25:56 AM
Not fine with me.

The messaging sucks.

Why should I wear a mask if I'm fully vaccinated and had Covid already?

Why should I get vaccinated if I still have to wear a mask?

How does anyone know who and who is not fully vaccinated?

What a crock O' shit.

This one is going to be irrelevant, very soon.  By the end of June, every single person that wants the vaccine, will have had the chance to get it.  And all those remaining, have chosen to take their chances.

Excluding of course the very small percentage of people that are compromised in some way that makes then completely unable to receive the vaccine. But those people were always going to be vulnerable, and they will need to be extremely cautious in their interactions with others.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on May 14, 2021, 08:45:10 AM
The messaging has stunk from the start from all quarters. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2021, 08:50:25 AM
I'm at ORD right now, and I'm being forced to wear a mask.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 14, 2021, 08:52:18 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on May 14, 2021, 08:45:10 AM
The messaging has stunk from the start from all quarters.
I'm okay with cutting the CDC a little bit of slack early-on, because we really just didn't know much about it.

But at this point, we know that outdoor transmission is basically nonexistent, with or without masks, with or without vaccines.  We've known this for close to a year.  We know that child-to-child transmission and child-to-adult transmission, is statistically insignificant, and looking at global data plus our own data here in the USA, this has been evident for over 6 months.

Yet the messaging on these topics has remained disconnected from scientific findings, for reasons that are completely dissociated from health and well-being.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2021, 08:56:37 AM
More Scientists Urge Broad Inquiry Into Coronavirus Origins - The New York Times (nytimes.com) (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/13/science/virus-origins-lab-leak-scientists.html#click=https://t.co/1XbZbEoQGj)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2021, 08:58:25 AM
I agree, early in this folks weren't sure about much at all, but now things are fairly clear.  The CDC is just slow to adopt the obvious for some reason, an abundance of caution I suppose.  And, they understand their advice often is misunderstood and misapplied as well.  But like any large organization, they operate by committee.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 14, 2021, 09:05:35 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 14, 2021, 08:58:25 AM
I agree, early in this folks weren't sure about much at all, but now things are fairly clear.  The CDC is just slow to adopt the obvious for some reason, an abundance of caution I suppose.  And, they understand their advice often is misunderstood and misapplied as well.  But like any large organization, they operate by committee.

I'm hopeful we can use this experience and apply some lessons learned and some best practices from around the country, and around the globe, before the next one.

The loss of life due to COVID has been tragic, but in many ways we're also pretty lucky that the virus itself isn't MORE dangerous.  It's really sobering to imagine what might happen if the next bug we encounter is as lethal as something like Ebola, but is able to hide and transmit during the presymptomatic phase as well as this novel coronavirus does.  I've said it before, but I feel like this has been our opportunity to pressure-test our response systems, and find the (numerous) failure points.  So that for the next one, the REALLY BIG ONE, we're much better prepared.

I believe in the scientific community to be able to do that.  I just don't know that, once the findings make their way over to the bureaucrats, any significant change is going to be allowed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2021, 09:51:49 AM
I think if something is super lethal, it won't transmit well unless there is a long contagious period with few/no symptoms.  Ebola doesn't spread much in part because it kills to fast.  And in part because you get it from bodily fluids apparently.

The COVID thing is because of the long period without symptoms, I think, or no symptoms ever.  Combine that with eventual high lethality and you'd have a major shut down of everything, nobody would leave their homes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 14, 2021, 11:06:19 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 14, 2021, 09:51:49 AM
I think if something is super lethal, it won't transmit well unless there is a long contagious period with few/no symptoms.  Ebola doesn't spread much in part because it kills to fast.  And in part because you get it from bodily fluids apparently.

The COVID thing is because of the long period without symptoms, I think, or no symptoms ever.  Combine that with eventual high lethality and you'd have a major shut down of everything, nobody would leave their homes.
Right.  That's exactly what I'm saying.

Historically, the super-lethal viruses have killed too quickly to spread.  But there's no absolute scientific reason for that.  This novel coronavirus has a unique spike protein and attacks numerous body systems in ways we've never seen before.  There's no reason why a more deadly virus won't evolve, that can stay hidden longer, and attack in numerous unexpected ways, like this one does.

There's no scientific reason to think that won't, or can't, happen. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 14, 2021, 11:18:04 AM
Exactly. As pointed out in this thread, HIV was an excellent example of extreme lethality and long asymptomatic period.

If that had been airborne transmission at the R0 of COVID, humanity would have been nearly entirely snuffed out in the 80s. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2021, 12:19:02 PM
I think really once something of that ilk hits and is understood, we all have to bunker down in place for months.

And yes, the death toll could be 20% of the global pop.  The 1918 flu was close to that, high mortality among middle aged folks, less among the aged.  That also would make something worse, the older folks would be having to try and care for the younger.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 14, 2021, 12:45:31 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 14, 2021, 12:19:02 PM
I think really once something of that ilk hits and is understood, we all have to bunker down in place for months.

And yes, the death toll could be 20% of the global pop.  The 1918 flu was close to that, high mortality among middle aged folks, less among the aged.  That also would make something worse, the older folks would be having to try and care for the younger.
If it had been airborne transmission of HIV with the same R0 as COVID, it wouldn't likely have even been NOTICED until 99% of the world's population was infected. 

The bigger question would be once we actually started seeing the effects (immune system collapse) in the first of those affected, if we would have had the ability to apply herculean resources to treatments and actually stop it to keep people alive. Obviously in the case of HIV it took decades to develop reliable enough treatments to control it, but that was for a disease that affected a very small portion of the population [and disproportionately one that induced less sympathy from the general public]. Could we have turned on the spigot of medical research to stop the progression before 90%+ of the world died from AIDS?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2021, 12:48:09 PM
I see your point, if the symptoms are delayed for six months or more, we're all done for, aside from the usual random resistance some of us have.

The Plague apparently killed a third of Europe back in the day.  They couldn't figure out how it was transmitted.  But something with delayed symptoms?  Scary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 15, 2021, 10:18:11 AM
Interesting read.

Where COVID-19 has and hasn't spread since states reopened: Analysis - ABC News (go.com) (https://abcnews.go.com/Health/covid-19-spread-states-reopened-analysis/story?id=77491086)



The Science...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 15, 2021, 10:24:56 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 15, 2021, 10:18:11 AM
Interesting read.

Where COVID-19 has and hasn't spread since states reopened: Analysis - ABC News (go.com) (https://abcnews.go.com/Health/covid-19-spread-states-reopened-analysis/story?id=77491086)



The Science...
That graphic in there is just an abomination of the highest order. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 15, 2021, 10:52:00 AM
All I got it of it was that there is sparse data and we can't draw many conclusions. But they're hopeful they can learn something...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 15, 2021, 10:54:04 AM
Hit the wine bar last night. First time in I don't know how long that I walked into a business without a mask on. It felt good.

Today is my official "full immunity" day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 15, 2021, 11:07:03 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 15, 2021, 10:52:00 AM
All I got it of it was that there is sparse data and we can't draw many conclusions. But they're hopeful they can learn something...
What I took from it is that all the places that were forced to close (and/or go out of business) were not the cause of major spread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on May 15, 2021, 11:28:07 AM
More informing and well articulated than the CDC:

https://twitter.com/ReneeAlida/status/1393172768871567363
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 15, 2021, 11:31:52 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on May 15, 2021, 11:28:07 AM
More informing and well articulated than the CDC:

https://twitter.com/ReneeAlida/status/1393172768871567363
he didnt even realize he had it so good job vaccine
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 15, 2021, 12:41:47 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 15, 2021, 11:07:03 AM
What I took from it is that all the places that were forced to close (and/or go out of business) were not the cause of major spread.
Yeah, they said that in the first few paragraphs, but the entire rest of the story talked about how limited the tracking was, particularly places like restaurants where you don't have good contact tracing data, etc. Areas where they have much more reliable tracking, such as factories and workplaces (you know who is there and when) caused more tracked outbreaks, but that could easily have been due to better tracking. 

Which isn't to say that your point isn't true, but that this article is mostly fluff filled with numbers that don't actually seem to prove anything. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 15, 2021, 12:56:15 PM
I believe most of the spread was in homes. Family gatherings, parties, etc.

The numbers spiked, even in lockdown states. It stands to reason...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 15, 2021, 01:10:47 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 15, 2021, 12:56:15 PM
I believe most of the spread was in homes. Family gatherings, parties, etc.

The numbers spiked, even in lockdown states. It stands to reason...
I do think there's a lot to that. As I've said I think that was especially true around the holidays.

However I remind everyone that "lockdown states" might have been locked down in name only. Despite what you've probably heard in the media about California, we weren't very locked down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 15, 2021, 01:13:04 PM
For example I'd highlight that particular news article showed that 4 states with dramatic increases in their new case rates as they exited lockdown--and California's went down when we came off lockdown. 

I'm assuming that would suggest that the "lockdown" itself wasn't being enforced/respected. Which matches my anecdotal experience here. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 16, 2021, 09:23:24 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 15, 2021, 11:31:52 AM
he didnt even realize he had it so good job vaccine
Exactly.  How many of us get colds or flu each year, and only have mild symptoms or none at all?

All along, I've been wanting to see a stated goal from the CDC, for how we measure ourselves against the virus.  "Complete eradication" isn't possible.  Using "positive cases" is stupid, because never in history have we so thoroughly tested a population for one single illness.

For me, it would be something along the lines of, "Reducing the effects of the novel coronavirus on the population to be no worse than an average flu season, in terms of serious illness, hospitalization, and death."  That's a known risk that the population has found acceptable, and it makes sense at least as some sort of baseline.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on May 16, 2021, 04:37:05 PM
U.S. total deaths showing totals over 600,000:

(https://i.imgur.com/OQhiHS4.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 17, 2021, 07:37:05 AM
FL:

(https://i.imgur.com/aU2ThBQ.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on May 17, 2021, 09:40:51 AM
More graphs - 

2020 accounts for 361,661 recorded Covid deaths. 2021 accounts for 238,487 so far. Total 600,148 deaths total.


(https://i.imgur.com/Vq6xdEP.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 17, 2021, 09:45:21 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/2VzjBrD.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 17, 2021, 01:14:10 PM
Trader Joe's and Walmart have apparently dropped their mask mandate. Costco and Target apparently have as well--in places which don't have a local mask mandate. So here in CA it's still in force. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 17, 2021, 01:40:51 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 17, 2021, 01:14:10 PM
Trader Joe's and Walmart have apparently dropped their mask mandate. Costco and Target apparently have as well--in places which don't have a local mask mandate. So here in CA it's still in force.
Publix dropped it here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 17, 2021, 01:45:20 PM
HEB (which is our popular Texas regional grocery chain, similar to the way Publix is in the SE), still has it in place.  But in areas where the local authorities didn't have mandates, it was never enforced.

I was in both Costco and Target earlier today, they still have signs up and are requiring it here.  And that wasn't in Austin, that was in a suburb that tends way less liberal than Austin proper.

But it won't be the norm for much longer I don't think, even in Austin.  I predict that by Memorial Day weekend, everyone's going to say eff it.  Businesses that decide to keep it in place, are going to put their employees at risk of confrontation.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 17, 2021, 04:52:23 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 17, 2021, 01:45:20 PM
HEB (which is our popular Texas regional grocery chain, similar to the way Publix is in the SE), still has it in place.  But in areas where the local authorities didn't have mandates, it was never enforced.

I was in both Costco and Target earlier today, they still have signs up and are requiring it here.  And that wasn't in Austin, that was in a suburb that tends way less liberal than Austin proper.

But it won't be the norm for much longer I don't think, even in Austin.  I predict that by Memorial Day weekend, everyone's going to say eff it.  Businesses that decide to keep it in place, are going to put their employees at risk of confrontation.


If Trader Joe’s, which was somewhat militant about capacities, dropped it, the rest won’t be far behind.

The confrontation thing is ... unfortunate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 17, 2021, 05:08:42 PM
I got Moderna#2 this morning.  Fingers crossed for minimal side effects over the next couple of days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 17, 2021, 05:11:32 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on May 17, 2021, 04:52:23 PM
If Trader Joe’s, which was somewhat militant about capacities, dropped it, the rest won’t be far behind.

The confrontation thing is ... unfortunate.
employees aren't confronting any maskless folks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 17, 2021, 05:15:52 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 17, 2021, 05:11:32 PM
employees aren't confronting any maskless folks
To date, they have been, in the Austin area.

But I don't anticipate that will continue.  The state has already lifted its mask mandate, and many municipalities have as well.  Without the strength of government mandates behind them, the businesses aren't going to feel like they have much ground to stand on.

Plus, COVID is over now, right?  So no worries then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 17, 2021, 05:20:36 PM
I wish my office would end the masks, considering they know we are all vaccinated
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 17, 2021, 05:41:10 PM
The vaccinated in our office are not wearing masks. The unvaccinated have to wear them until they show us their CDC card.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 17, 2021, 06:06:25 PM
Annoyingly, we went to Trader Joe's yesterday. I walked in without my mask and literally everyone in the store was wearing them, so my wife scolded me and made me put my mask on. 

I might not give a crap what Newsom says, but I care what the boss says. 

Quote from: MaximumSam on May 17, 2021, 05:20:36 PM
I wish my office would end the masks, considering they know we are all vaccinated

Me too. Apparently they're planning on keeping them. So I'm planning on working from home unless I absolutely need to be there.

I'm not anti-mask and never have been; you all know that. But I wear glasses and I can be just as effective at my job from home as the office 95% of the time. I'd rather work from home and be comfortable than have to sit at a cubicle with a mask on, fogging up my glasses all day, uncomfortable. 

It's not political; I just don't see enough of a need to be in the office if I have to wear it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 17, 2021, 10:15:23 PM
Sounds like you don't really need to be in the office anyway, with rare exceptions maybe.  Hopefully your management is wise enough to realize they don't need it.

My company is definitely going to eliminate a ton of office space.  Obviously the engineers that need to be present in the labs with the equipment need to go in, but beyond that, I suspect the majority of us will never have our own personal cubes again.  We'll likely end up doing hotel cubes with reservations when we need to be present in-person, and a lot more team-oriented collaborative spaces built out.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 18, 2021, 11:20:27 AM
24 hours post-vax, my arm is a little sore but nothing else so far. 


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMyCa35_mOg
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on May 18, 2021, 03:17:08 PM
Had Pfizer #2 yesterday. Had a slight fever last night but nothing else. Been working from home today just in case. 

We don’t have to wear masks at work but they have us really spaced out. I’m really liking it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 18, 2021, 03:39:08 PM
Newsom was making noises about potentially revisiting the mask mandate, but it looks like that's not going to be a thing here:

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/california-lift-mask-requirement-month-77741010

Supposedly the plan is to rescind the statewide mandate on June 15. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 18, 2021, 04:34:22 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 18, 2021, 03:39:08 PM
Newsom was making noises about potentially revisiting the mask mandate, but it looks like that's not going to be a thing here:

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/california-lift-mask-requirement-month-77741010

Supposedly the plan is to rescind the statewide mandate on June 15.

So Newsom is a science-denier?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 18, 2021, 05:19:43 PM
That sounds like a political post, 94 :57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 18, 2021, 05:41:56 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 18, 2021, 05:19:43 PM
That sounds like a political post, 94 :57:
Huh?  I didn't mention anything at all about politics.  O:-)

Seriously though, a long time back we set the line at being able to discuss policy and its implications, but not discuss the political backgrounds behind that policy.

I'll freely admit that elected officials from the entire range of the political spectrum, have been picking and choosing which SCIENCE ZOMG THE SCIENCE they choose to believe and support, for whatever reasons.  It's resulted in a lot of bad policy for the entire duration of the pandemic, and this is just one more example of that.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 18, 2021, 05:47:27 PM
I wish I could double like posts here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 18, 2021, 05:50:56 PM
Jeez, 94... It was a joke. Lighten up. ;-) 


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 18, 2021, 06:07:03 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 18, 2021, 05:50:56 PM
Jeez, 94... It was a joke. Lighten up. ;-)



Oh I know. :)

But then I felt compelled to explain why I posted it, since I have been the one most adamant about removing political postings.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 18, 2021, 06:15:36 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 18, 2021, 06:07:03 PM
Oh I know. :)

But then I felt compelled to explain why I posted it, since I have been the one most adamant about removing political postings.
POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 18, 2021, 06:27:15 PM
On the bright side, 7-day MA of daily new cases in CA is now at a lower level than it has been since Apr 2020, and continues to trend down pretty sharply. 

National 7-day MA of daily new cases is also trending down very sharply. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 18, 2021, 06:31:22 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 18, 2021, 06:27:15 PM
On the bright side, 7-day MA of daily new cases in CA is now at a lower level than it has been since Apr 2020, and continues to trend down pretty sharply.

National 7-day MA of daily new cases is also trending down very sharply.
yep
dont know if this is just a cycle or if its the affects of the vaccine plus herd immunity
or both
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 18, 2021, 06:32:55 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 18, 2021, 06:27:15 PM

National 7-day MA of daily new cases is also trending down very sharply.
national 7 day moving avg


(https://i.imgur.com/yKw7403.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 18, 2021, 06:54:57 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 18, 2021, 06:15:36 PM
POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS POLITICS
you watch yer ass
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 19, 2021, 07:16:16 AM
:sign0144:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on May 19, 2021, 09:32:11 AM
Lots of kids getting vaccinated at my Oldest's appointment this morning . 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 19, 2021, 10:55:58 AM
48 hours after Moderna#2, and no symptoms at all.  Even the arm soreness is 98% gone.

I'm gonna declare victory and go lick some COVID.

(...in two weeks...)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on May 20, 2021, 11:44:02 AM
Quote from: utee94 on May 18, 2021, 05:41:56 PM

I'll freely admit that elected officials from the entire range of the political spectrum, have been picking and choosing which SCIENCE ZOMG THE SCIENCE they choose to believe and support, for whatever reasons.  It's resulted in a lot of bad policy for the entire duration of the pandemic, and this is just one more example of that.



People have largely caught on that the "Listen to the Science" trumpeters drown out actual science discussion by prefacing their precautions like masks as unquestionable "science."

My issue with the "science" trumpeters is more subjectively the inexhaustibly negative backdrop of too many conclusions reveling in pessimism resulting from a scientific observation. It's almost as though their negative messaging is preexisting and awaiting to be grounded the next scientific point that comes its way.

Take this article on this past year's nearly non-existent flu season (https://www.advisory.com/en/daily-briefing/2021/03/30/flu-season). A single paragraph is spent highlighting the statistical drop in flu cases (good news, right? But no...), all as a set up to whine about vaccines and a potential roaring back of the flu once we're past Covid.

It's gotten to the point that when a new scientific observation is headlined my reaction is brace for whatever new threat I'm supposed to be endlessly worried and unsettled about.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 20, 2021, 11:52:47 AM
Masks are disappearing in Columbus
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 20, 2021, 12:51:48 PM
As they should be, for those who are vaccinated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 20, 2021, 01:24:13 PM
should be vaccinated by now

plenty of easy options and this has been the case for weeks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 20, 2021, 02:01:07 PM
The "Listen to the Science" notion is really "I cherry picked something I saw in the media that sounded sciency and agrees with what I think".

I don't know that I have ever seen a report on science in MSM that wasn't pretty badly garbled, or misinterpreted, or slanted, or spun.  This goes as well for folks professing to speak for science, like Mister Science or whoever.  They shape the "science" according to their agenda.

Real science generally is full of doubt and alternative explanations and hedging, a lot of hedging.  What we see in "Newsweek" is garbage.  They supposedly have "science reporters", but they really really aren't that at all.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 20, 2021, 06:12:03 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 20, 2021, 01:24:13 PM
should be vaccinated by now

plenty of easy options and this has been the case for weeks
Well, sort of. I'll be, officially, fully vaccinated by 5/31.  I signed up as soon as I was allowed to by law in my state, and could find a place within 25 miles of my home that could do it.  People that waited a few days, will be later than me.  People that waited a week, will be further behind.  People that waited two weeks, will be still further behind.  

So late June is the point where-- in MY state-- I'll be willing to say that anyone wants to be vaccinated, has had the opportunity to do so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 20, 2021, 06:36:35 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 20, 2021, 02:01:07 PM
The "Listen to the Science" notion is really "I cherry picked something I saw in the media that sounded sciency and agrees with what I think".

I don't know that I have ever seen a report on science in MSM that wasn't pretty badly garbled, or misinterpreted, or slanted, or spun.  This goes as well for folks professing to speak for science, like Mister Science or whoever.  They shape the "science" according to their agenda.

Real science generally is full of doubt and alternative explanations and hedging, a lot of hedging.  What we see in "Newsweek" is garbage.  They supposedly have "science reporters", but they really really aren't that at all.
Newsweek is a zombie publication now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 20, 2021, 06:38:25 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 20, 2021, 06:12:03 PM
Well, sort of. I'll be, officially, fully vaccinated by 5/31.  I signed up as soon as I was allowed to by law in my state, and could find a place within 25 miles of my home that could do it.  People that waited a few days, will be later than me.  People that waited a week, will be further behind.  People that waited two weeks, will be still further behind. 

So late June is the point where-- in MY state-- I'll be willing to say that anyone wants to be vaccinated, has had the opportunity to do so.
Of course, the discussion was related to masks... In TX, has mask wearing even been related to vaccination rates? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 20, 2021, 08:20:26 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 20, 2021, 06:38:25 PM
Of course, the discussion was related to masks... In TX, has mask wearing even been related to vaccination rates?
Maybe, but the comment I'm replying directly to, irrespective of relation to mask-wearing, implies that anyone that wants a vaccine should have it by now.  That's just not true.  Like I said, at best it's only partially true.  The true statement would be, "anyone that wants a vaccine should have the first shot by now."  I'm okay with that.

I'm a little touchy with this because in my own state, I'm starting to hear the "anti-anti-maskers" throwing out statements that everybody should be vaccinated by now and EVERYONE who isn't vaccinated is just taking the risk and can face the consequences.  That's a bullshit reactionary position based on disagreement with the current political party in power and is every bit as anti-science as all that they accuse their opposition of being for the past year.

Anyway to answer your question, in Texas, the statewide mask mandate was lifted on 3/11 and was at best only tangentially related to vaccination rates.  It was also maybe slightly related to decreasing case/hospitalization rates but was mostly related to yet more political positioning.  Which I don't like from EITHER direction and I'm always going to call out as the BS that it is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 20, 2021, 11:14:13 PM
Texas lags behind Iowa again?

not a shot, I assumed Iowa was behind our 3 neighboring states, so thought was behind most states

if ya want a shot, come on up
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 21, 2021, 10:36:18 AM
Quote from: utee94 on May 20, 2021, 08:20:26 PM
Maybe, but the comment I'm replying directly to, irrespective of relation to mask-wearing, implies that anyone that wants a vaccine should have it by now.  That's just not true.  Like I said, at best it's only partially true.  The true statement would be, "anyone that wants a vaccine should have the first shot by now."  I'm okay with that.

I'm a little touchy with this because in my own state, I'm starting to hear the "anti-anti-maskers" throwing out statements that everybody should be vaccinated by now and EVERYONE who isn't vaccinated is just taking the risk and can face the consequences.  That's a bullshit reactionary position based on disagreement with the current political party in power and is every bit as anti-science as all that they accuse their opposition of being for the past year.

Anyway to answer your question, in Texas, the statewide mask mandate was lifted on 3/11 and was at best only tangentially related to vaccination rates.  It was also maybe slightly related to decreasing case/hospitalization rates but was mostly related to yet more political positioning.  Which I don't like from EITHER direction and I'm always going to call out as the BS that it is.
True.

My statement for weeks is that by June/July that everyone who wants to be vaccinated will have had the opportunity. 

But I'd highlight that the mask mandates today are "everyone", and the change I assume is that the mask mandate will be dropped for "everyone" and only apply to those who aren't vaccinated (yeah--good luck enforcing that!)...

Right now I'm for ending the mask mandates based on the fact that case rates are low and dropping. Here in CA we have a 7-day MA of about 1400 cases/day, in a state of 40M people. That's a 0.0035% chance of getting COVID on a daily basis, and if you assume that that I've got a 95% chance of being immune, drops it to 0.000175% chance of getting COVID daily for me. 

IMHO that's time to end the mask mandate. I'm not saying we outlaw masks, of course, and I'm not saying anyone who wants to wear a mask shouldn't. I just think we're close enough to herd immunity that it should be a personal / business decision, not a mandate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 21, 2021, 11:10:52 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 21, 2021, 10:36:18 AM
True.

My statement for weeks is that by June/July that everyone who wants to be vaccinated will have had the opportunity.

But I'd highlight that the mask mandates today are "everyone", and the change I assume is that the mask mandate will be dropped for "everyone" and only apply to those who aren't vaccinated (yeah--good luck enforcing that!)...

Right now I'm for ending the mask mandates based on the fact that case rates are low and dropping. Here in CA we have a 7-day MA of about 1400 cases/day, in a state of 40M people. That's a 0.0035% chance of getting COVID on a daily basis, and if you assume that that I've got a 95% chance of being immune, drops it to 0.000175% chance of getting COVID daily for me.

IMHO that's time to end the mask mandate. I'm not saying we outlaw masks, of course, and I'm not saying anyone who wants to wear a mask shouldn't. I just think we're close enough to herd immunity that it should be a personal / business decision, not a mandate.
Makes one wonder why mask mandates arent being ended

Even to the point of ignoring what the experts are saying

what possible reason could certain folks in authority have for not ending mask mandates
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 21, 2021, 11:13:40 AM
The mask lobby is powerful?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on May 21, 2021, 12:08:28 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on May 20, 2021, 06:36:35 PM
Newsweek is a zombie publication now.

I noticed this with Time magazine as well, the same thing I went through with Sports Illustrated. There's nothing a weekly subscription publication can present to the public that isn't already widely known thanks to instant digital media sources. They know this and in turn I think it's driven news into the Op-Eding everything to fill the page and screen. By 9AM the next day, ESPN knows its audience has watched numerous clips of Myles Garrett hitting Mason Rudolph over the head so rather than presenting the incident as news the natural extension is to have the First Take Crew opine for thirty minutes of air time.

The outcome of all this is that when an ever developing story comes along that is best served to the public by matter-of-fact breakdown (like Covid), the reaction is instead to immediately process updates through the Op-Ed machine because that's what news media is built for these days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 21, 2021, 01:32:01 PM
ROME (AP) — American pharmaceutical company Pfizer and German company BioNTech pledged Friday to deliver 2 billion doses of their COVID-19 vaccine to middle- and low-income countries over the next 18 months, amid international calls for more vaccine solidarity.

The companies, which together developed the first vaccine to be authorized for use in the United States and Europe, made the announcement at a global health summit in Rome co-hosted by the European Union’s executive arm and Italy.

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said they expect to provide a billion of the doses this year and another billion in 2022.

It was unclear whether the deliveries would take place through the U.N.-backed COVAX program, which aims to ensure equitable access to COVID-19 shots for low-and middle-income countries, or if countries would get the doses at a reduced price directly from the companies.

Bourla said his company last year adopted a three-tiered pricing policy guaranteeing that low-income countries get the shots at cost and to have middle-income nations pay about half the price wealthier nations are charged.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 21, 2021, 02:22:54 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 21, 2021, 11:10:52 AM
Makes one wonder why mask mandates arent being ended

Even to the point of ignoring what the experts are saying

what possible reason could certain folks in authority have for not ending mask mandates
Simple calculation:



So if you're a politician, you're risk-averse. Especially in a state like CA where (without getting into politics) you're part of the overwhelming majority political party in the state AND that political party isn't the "screw masks; COVID is just the flu" party. 

There's a political risk to ending the mask mandate and cases spiking (scenario #4), and no real political benefit to any of the other scenarios. So you avoid the outcome that has the potential to make you look bad. 

If you're in a red state, typically #3 and #4 are reversed. If you remove the mandate and nothing bad happens your political supporters hail you as a brave hero. If you remove the mandate and cases spike... Well they were never in favor of the mandate anyway. They'll point to cases spiking somewhere else with a mask mandate [such as CA] and excuse your behavior. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 21, 2021, 03:19:22 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 21, 2021, 02:22:54 PM
Simple calculation:

  • Keep the mask mandate another month and case rates remain low -- politically you've not really changed anything.
  • Keep the mask mandate another month and case rates spike (due to whatever reason) -- not your fault; you didn't change policy.
  • Remove the mask mandate immediately and case rates remain low -- politically you don't have a payoff.
  • Remove the mask mandate immediately and cases spike -- politically you look like you've botched things.


So if you're a politician, you're risk-averse. Especially in a state like CA where (without getting into politics) you're part of the overwhelming majority political party in the state AND that political party isn't the "screw masks; COVID is just the flu" party.

There's a political risk to ending the mask mandate and cases spiking (scenario #4), and no real political benefit to any of the other scenarios. So you avoid the outcome that has the potential to make you look bad.

If you're in a red state, typically #3 and #4 are reversed. If you remove the mandate and nothing bad happens your political supporters hail you as a brave hero. If you remove the mandate and cases spike... Well they were never in favor of the mandate anyway. They'll point to cases spiking somewhere else with a mask mandate [such as CA] and excuse your behavior.
I think the current Governor of Calif might not agree with number 3

considering hes heading toward being fired
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 21, 2021, 03:51:55 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 21, 2021, 03:19:22 PM
I think the current Governor of Calif might not agree with number 3

considering hes heading toward being fired
Can't get too deep in a response w/o getting political, but there's a certain anger that people get when politicians adopt a "do as I say, not as I do" mentality and then get caught.

California likes to fire our governors--as opposed to Illinois, which prefers incarceration... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 21, 2021, 04:59:49 PM
Leaders of Iowa school districts cannot require students or staff to wear masks, and Iowa cities and counties cannot impose mask mandates under a law Gov. Kim Reynolds signed early Thursday.

The law went into effect immediately. The signing prompted several Iowa school districts to modify their mask requirements as a result Thursday.

The measure passed the House by a 53-35 vote and passed the Senate by a 29-17 vote in the waning hours of the 2021 legislative session. It was part of a larger education bill that would expand open enrollment in Iowa. Both votes split along party lines.

Reynolds, a Republican, said Wednesday morning, before either chamber passed the legislation, that she would likely be in favor of the measure. She then promptly signed it into law within hours of its passage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 21, 2021, 05:24:13 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 21, 2021, 03:51:55 PM
Can't get too deep in a response w/o getting political, but there's a certain anger that people get when politicians adopt a "do as I say, not as I do" mentality and then get caught.

California likes to fire our governors--as opposed to Illinois, which prefers incarceration...
It was not my intent to make a political statement

I was just pointing out that folks are getting tired of this mask crap and politicians who fail to understand may pay the price 

There is no reason for the schools to be closed but there California is with still a lot of students not being taught in person
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on May 22, 2021, 12:14:32 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 21, 2021, 04:59:49 PM
Leaders of Iowa school districts cannot require students or staff to wear masks, and Iowa cities and counties cannot impose mask mandates under a law Gov. Kim Reynolds signed early Thursday.

The law went into effect immediately. The signing prompted several Iowa school districts to modify their mask requirements as a result Thursday.

The measure passed the House by a 53-35 vote and passed the Senate by a 29-17 vote in the waning hours of the 2021 legislative session. It was part of a larger education bill that would expand open enrollment in Iowa. Both votes split along party lines.

Reynolds, a Republican, said Wednesday morning, before either chamber passed the legislation, that she would likely be in favor of the measure. She then promptly signed it into law within hours of its passage.

I think this approach is too inflexible, as there is no local control, and there can be localized flare-ups.

That said, I sit on a nonprofit board that has met by conference call for about 14-months. Yesterday we had our first in-person meeting since the pandemic started. It was nice to see people I have been meeting with for 25-years. We could communicate more effectively, and view documents together. It is nice to reopen, and right now our #s in NE Iowa are low. I am concerned we are reopening too rapidly because our rural Iowa vaccination completed percentage is below 50%. Our #s will rise above 50% as children are now being vaccinated. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 22, 2021, 07:26:38 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on May 21, 2021, 12:08:28 PM
I noticed this with Time magazine as well, the same thing I went through with Sports Illustrated. There's nothing a weekly subscription publication can present to the public that isn't already widely known thanks to instant digital media sources. They know this and in turn I think it's driven news into the Op-Eding everything to fill the page and screen. By 9AM the next day, ESPN knows its audience has watched numerous clips of Myles Garrett hitting Mason Rudolph over the head so rather than presenting the incident as news the natural extension is to have the First Take Crew opine for thirty minutes of air time.

The outcome of all this is that when an ever developing story comes along that is best served to the public by matter-of-fact breakdown (like Covid), the reaction is instead to immediately process updates through the Op-Ed machine because that's what news media is built for these days.
I haven't seen an issue of Time in forever. Newsweek essentially went under, but sold their rights to some content factory which just churns out content and hot takes under the Newsweek banner. 

I actually tried to buy a couple magazines the other day at Kroger when it was getting warm and I wanted some light porch reading. They had zero actual magazines, the only written stuff was those "special editions" that cost like 12 bucks. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 22, 2021, 10:44:20 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/i6Ohzy0.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 22, 2021, 12:24:22 PM
The past 2 years have taught me that while I though many governors and congressional members were stupid, boy, they've got nothing on state legislatures and school board members.  
Not even concerning right or wrong, just f-ing stupid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on May 22, 2021, 03:06:19 PM
I'm with you on idiot school boards. With governors there's a vetting process (?) but with school boards do you even need to prove you're a parent? During my high school days the district I was attending accidentally elected to the school board a homeless man who was living in his car on school property.

My buddies and I knew who the guy was because we'd go goofing around the football field after hours. After a while we noticed a guy living in his Saturn, parked beneath the bleachers. Months later, still living in his car, we noticed his picture (long hair, unshaven) posted in the hallway along with rest of the current school board members.

Turns out he'd been showing up to meetings for the drinks and donuts. At some point he was nominated for a position (by default?). After election he lasted for a few months until the cops ran the plates of his illegally parked Saturn (beneath the football bleachers) which turned up an outstanding warrant for weapons charges filed by the county to our west. During his guilty plea the judge had a good laugh at his lawyers request for leniency due to his "devotion to the local community." To include illegally holding a spot on the school board.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 23, 2021, 10:49:31 AM
So...

Fauci 'not convinced' COVID-19 developed naturally | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fauci-not-convinced-covid-19-developed-naturally)


I'm not convinced either. 

Not even from the very beginning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 23, 2021, 11:39:37 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 23, 2021, 10:49:31 AM
So...

Fauci 'not convinced' COVID-19 developed naturally | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fauci-not-convinced-covid-19-developed-naturally)


I'm not convinced either.

Not even from the very beginning.
Fauci has lied so much since the start of this thing, he's twisted himself into a pretzel. 

It almost certainly came from a lab and was an accidental leak. It evolved through gain of function research. It wasn't "created" by humans like the bunk conspiracy theories the mainstream media tried to push and then shoot down. No serious person ever said it was created by humans from scratch or taking parts of this and splicing that. And that's not what gain of function research is anyway. They took a naturally occuring virus and turbocharged it's evolution in the lab through exposing it to different types of human cells and tissues.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMGWLLDSA3c 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnY2OtnTOcA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQLF4DUSXGs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Pk0wLN5uuU&t=1s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xw0n3HZXLmo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqhKlkkc2Eo
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 23, 2021, 11:45:28 AM
best comment: 

"Yeah, but your scientists were so preoccupied with whether or not they could, they didn't stop to think if they should." - Jeff Goldblum





https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5fe7KEkwQM

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 23, 2021, 01:09:39 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 23, 2021, 10:49:31 AM
So...

Fauci 'not convinced' COVID-19 developed naturally | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fauci-not-convinced-covid-19-developed-naturally)


I'm not convinced either.

Not even from the very beginning.
Which way is the wind blowing?

Just listen to Dr Fauci to find out

Might change tomorrow
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 23, 2021, 05:33:36 PM
I'm certainly not "convinced" of anything regarding it's origins.  I doubt we ever will be.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 23, 2021, 07:17:09 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 23, 2021, 05:33:36 PM
I'm certainly not "convinced" of anything regarding it's origins.  I doubt we ever will be.
Read more on it. It almost certainly came from a lab. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 23, 2021, 07:22:22 PM
From what I've read there is absolutely nothing about it that is particularly suspicious or any sign of something created or weaponized. It is a pretty run of the mill virus. But it certainly could have been accidentally released from a lab - I didn't realize how common that actually was until this pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 24, 2021, 07:46:04 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on May 23, 2021, 07:22:22 PM
From what I've read there is absolutely nothing about it that is particularly suspicious or any sign of something created or weaponized. It is a pretty run of the mill virus. But it certainly could have been accidentally released from a lab - I didn't realize how common that actually was until this pandemic.
I don't know about that either.

Things would be a lot different in the world today had it not been for the Covid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 24, 2021, 09:10:58 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on May 23, 2021, 07:22:22 PM
From what I've read there is absolutely nothing about it that is particularly suspicious or any sign of something created or weaponized. It is a pretty run of the mill virus. But it certainly could have been accidentally released from a lab - I didn't realize how common that actually was until this pandemic.
No one said created. You and others who think like this need to get that word "created" out of your heads. They don't "create" viruses in these labs while doing this gain of function research. They take naturally occurring viruses- that DO NOT and CANNOT infect human beings- and they play evolutionary tricks with said virus- and turbocharge their evolution and play god in a lab setting and push and pull these viruses, manipulate them & expose them to human cells & human tissues- and these viruses mutate rapidly and evolve to infect human cells.

Watch those videos I linked on the previous page. And also- the former head of the CDC- who is a trained virologist and has access to every shred of classified top secret intelligence there is on this topic- says this thing came from a lab leak. He's not speaking out of his ass. He's seen intelligence that the rest of us haven't.

Faucci is lying out of his ass- and has been all over the map since day one- all in order to cover his own ass. Faucci IS gain of function research. He's the single most senior/important figure in that entire field in the entire world. And he's likely been trying to keep the lid on this to save his own skin.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqhKlkkc2Eo

As far as weaponizing the virus goes- the Chinese gov't sure did A HELL of a lot to make this thing far worse than it ever should've been.

Read this: https://www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2020/03/covid-19-china.page

Watch this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rwroTpZ2Np8
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 24, 2021, 09:35:50 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 24, 2021, 09:10:58 AM
They take naturally occurring viruses- that DO NOT and CANNOT infect human beings- and they play evolutionary tricks with said virus- and turbocharge their evolution and play god in a lab setting and push and pull these viruses, manipulate them & expose them to human cells & human tissues- and these viruses mutate rapidly and evolve to infect human cells.
So, they play tricks and push and pull and manipulate, to change something that occurs in nature, to something that doesn't occur in nature?

Sounds like a lab creation to me.


(https://i.imgur.com/zeIa39i.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 24, 2021, 10:32:36 AM
create implies they make these things from scratch or engineer them ground up to do things they want them to do. they don’t. They play with evolution in a lab setting and these viruses evolve in ways they can’t predict. They learn new tricks. Hence the term - gain of function. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on May 24, 2021, 10:35:57 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 24, 2021, 09:10:58 AM
No one said created. You and others who think like this need to get that word "created" out of your heads. They don't "create" viruses in these labs while doing this gain of function research. They take naturally occurring viruses- that DO NOT and CANNOT infect human beings- and they play evolutionary tricks with said virus- and turbocharge their evolution and play god in a lab setting and push and pull these viruses, manipulate them & expose them to human cells & human tissues- and these viruses mutate rapidly and evolve to infect human cells.

But can't someone say that an omelet or a cake is "created" by playing god with the ingredients and playing tricks with stove/oven heat?

With modern messaging tied to character limits on social media, to bite size talking points, and to headlines, what you just described above can be summarized within headlines as "creating" in the sense of manipulating something into existence, as the Covid virus is discussed.

Does anybody else believe how fortunate we as the general public are to indisputably know where Covid came from (Wuhan, China)? Once Covid began making news in early 2020, China was already organizing the message that other nations and pharmaceuticals were to blame. Had it not been so obvious or the facts were fuzzier from the start, many have wondered whether rather than arguing whether Covid came from a lab, our medias might be tied to debating whether Covid even emerged from China at all, if their state medias had their way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 24, 2021, 11:20:01 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 24, 2021, 07:46:04 AM
I don't know about that either.

Things would be a lot different in the world today had it not been for the Covid.
THIS,Sam mispoke "run of the mill" doesn't shut down world economies or mess with human immune systems to that length
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 24, 2021, 12:55:14 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 24, 2021, 11:20:01 AM
THIS,Sam mispoke "run of the mill" doesn't shut down world economies or mess with human immune systems to that length
What I mean is - many viruses in circulation today started out causing a pandemic. They now cause mild flus or colds, due the wonders of evolution and our immune system. So by "run of the mill" I mean there isn't anything particularly novel about this virus compared to other pandemics.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 24, 2021, 01:05:58 PM
I think this is anything BUT "run of the mill".

Nothing else in MY life had such a broad impact on behaviors and actions for nearly a year, and still is having impact.  That isn't "run of the mill", it's singular.  

And the virus itself appears to be far more contagious than is "typical".  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 24, 2021, 01:25:26 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 24, 2021, 01:05:58 PM
I think this is anything BUT "run of the mill".

Nothing else in MY life had such a broad impact on behaviors and actions for nearly a year, and still is having impact.  That isn't "run of the mill", it's singular. 

And the virus itself appears to be far more contagious than is "typical". 
yep

fast spreading but no symptoms right away 

a recipe for very dangerous
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 24, 2021, 01:31:00 PM
That is the difference of course relative to "run of the mill" pandemic disease vectors, and is why we've seen such dramatic spread and high number of deaths globally.

I think you have to  go back to 1918 to find something anywhere near as bad (and that was far worse of course).

When a thing doesn't happen for a century, it's not run of the mill.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 24, 2021, 01:32:22 PM
Collapse of the fake consensus on Covid-19 origins | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com) (https://judithcurry.com/2021/05/23/collapse-of-the-fake-consensus-on-covid-19-origins/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 24, 2021, 01:36:01 PM
I've read this pandemic is most similar to a pandemic in 1968. Until this pandemic I didn't know there was one in 1968.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 24, 2021, 01:38:15 PM
I bet 50 years from now, folks will know there was one in 2020.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 24, 2021, 01:39:37 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 24, 2021, 01:38:15 PM
I bet 50 years from now, folks will know there was one in 2020.


I'm sure they will, but don't think that matters much to the biology of the virus
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 24, 2021, 01:39:50 PM
So assuming this is shown to be the result of gain-of-function research and was an accidental leak from that lab.

What then? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 24, 2021, 01:40:27 PM
most aren't old enough to remember 1918.........

The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, the deadliest in history, infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide—about one-third of the planet’s population—and killed an estimated 20 million to 50 million victims, including some 675,000 Americans.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 24, 2021, 01:41:04 PM
The 1968 pandemic was caused by an influenza A (H3N2) virus comprised of two genes from an avian influenza A virus, including a new H3 hemagglutinin, but also contained the N2 neuraminidase from the 1957 H2N2 virus. It was first noted in the United States in September 1968. The estimated number of deaths was 1 million worldwide and about 100,000 in the United States. Most excess deaths were in people 65 years and older. The H3N2 virus continues to circulate worldwide as a seasonal influenza A virus. Seasonal H3N2 viruses, which are associated with severe illness in older people, undergo regular antigenic drift (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/change.htm).


Flu kills somewhere between 20,000 and 60,000 in a "typical" year, so in 1968, we had a higher than usual figure by 40,000 to 80,000, pretty far short of ~600,000 who died with COVID, a figure which could be compared with zero in a "normal" year.

So, COVID is an order of magnitude worse using this metric.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 24, 2021, 01:41:18 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 24, 2021, 01:39:50 PM
So assuming this is shown to be the result of gain-of-function research and was an accidental leak from that lab.

What then?
accidents happen


let's try to make sure it doesn't happen again - ever
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 24, 2021, 01:42:10 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 24, 2021, 01:39:50 PM
So assuming this is shown to be the result of gain-of-function research and was an accidental leak from that lab.

What then?
Nothing then, obviously.  It would be good to know if true, and folks would be more likely to resist trying to enhance functionality in the future perhaps.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 24, 2021, 01:45:55 PM
I do tend to think it was an accidental release, but I also tend to think that the CCP covered it up for as long as they could, to hurt other countries - namely European ones, and ours. 

They certainly achieved that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 24, 2021, 01:48:43 PM

Quote
Flu kills somewhere between 20,000 and 60,000 in a "typical" year, so in 1968, we had a higher than usual figure by 40,000 to 80,000, pretty far short of ~600,000 who died with COVID, a figure which could be compared with zero in a "normal" year.

So, COVID is an order of magnitude worse using this metric
Sure, though if you take into account the population has increased by roughly 125 million people, and more importantly for lethality, the number of elderly people is much higher now. I believe the IFR is about the same.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 24, 2021, 02:05:24 PM
The population gain is from 200 to 330 million not an order of magnitude.  

That was an unusually lethal influenza year, roughly 60,000 excess deaths over expected, or if we adjust for population, about 100,000 excess deaths. 

 We all had apparently zero resistance to COVID 19.  600,000 > 100,000.  And of course 1968 is a while back.  I was a kid.

This is worse than 1968, but a lot.  1918 was worse than this, by a lot.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 24, 2021, 02:07:45 PM
The other interesting thing is the near collapse in influenza this past season.  So, being "careful" and washing our hands zapped the flu (vaccinations also were higher than usual).

(https://i.imgur.com/bORKsay.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 24, 2021, 02:53:51 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 24, 2021, 01:39:50 PM
So assuming this is shown to be the result of gain-of-function research and was an accidental leak from that lab.

What then?
It is probably 90%+ it came from an accidental leak at an lab that was doing gain of function research. 

When this is proved to be the case, gain of function research should be banned- like it was under the Obama administration- and Faucci should at minimum be fired or even prosecuted and thrown in jail for going around the Trump administrations back for turning it back on. 

Gain of function research is too dangerous and potential disaster and detestation it causes far outweighs any perceived benefits it might have if any. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 24, 2021, 03:01:11 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 24, 2021, 02:05:24 PM
The population gain is from 200 to 330 million not an order of magnitude. 

That was an unusually lethal influenza year, roughly 60,000 excess deaths over expected, or if we adjust for population, about 100,000 excess deaths.

 We all had apparently zero resistance to COVID 19.  600,000 > 100,000.  And of course 1968 is a while back.  I was a kid.

This is worse than 1968, but a lot.  1918 was worse than this, by a lot.


Eh, crunching the numbers it definitely doesn't look like an order of magnitude, though there is a difference. Which also makes sense - I put in the wrong pandemic. The one it is most similar to is 1957/59, another one I knew nothing about until covid. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 24, 2021, 03:38:07 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/JWitmDj.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 24, 2021, 06:23:07 PM
All positive trends down here now. The Vax and prior infections are getting close to defeating this thing.

(https://i.imgur.com/Dn15oCZ.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on May 24, 2021, 07:32:33 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 24, 2021, 01:39:50 PM
So assuming this is shown to be the result of gain-of-function research and was an accidental leak from that lab.

What then?


1. Any foreign government funding Wuhan’s lab (such as ours) should stop their funding.

2. An investigation should be opened into WHO’s supposed early-2020 investigation of Wuhan’s lab when Wuhan was known to be the Covid source. What we increasingly know now should’ve been uncovered by WHO who had privileged access to Wuhan’s lab.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 24, 2021, 08:37:12 PM
Is it ok to call it the Chinese virus yet?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 24, 2021, 09:43:33 PM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on May 24, 2021, 07:32:33 PM

1. Any foreign government funding Wuhan’s lab (such as ours) should stop their funding.

2. An investigation should be opened into WHO’s supposed early-2020 investigation of Wuhan’s lab when Wuhan was known to be the Covid source. What we increasingly know now should’ve been uncovered by WHO who had privileged access to Wuhan’s lab.
Viruses very commonly start in China. What would be the benefit of stopping research there?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 24, 2021, 10:45:49 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 24, 2021, 02:53:51 PM
It is probably 90%+ it came from an accidental leak at an lab that was doing gain of function research.
Tell us more where that percentage came from.  (https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fdata%3Aimage%2Fjpeg%3Bbase64%2C%2F9j%2F4AAQSkZJRgABAQAAAQABAAD%2F2wCEAAoHCBQVFBgWFRUYGBgaGiAaGxsbGxkYGx0bGhsaGxoaHRsbIC0kGx0rIBsYJTclKS4wNDQ0GyM5PzkyPi0yNDABCwsLEA8QHRISHjApIyMyMjIyMjIyMjIyMjIyMjIyMjIyMjIyMjIyMjIyMjIyMDIyMjIyMjAyMj4%2BMjIyMDIyMv%2FAABEIAOEA4QMBIgACEQEDEQH%2FxAAcAAABBQEBAQAAAAAAAAAAAAAGAgMEBQcAAQj%2FxABPEAACAAQDBAYGBQgGCAcBAAABAgADBBESITEFBkFREyJhcYGRBzKhscHwFEJistEVIzQ1UnJzkjN0gpPh8RckU1RVs8PjFkZjg4TS00X%2FxAAZAQADAQEBAAAAAAAAAAAAAAABAgMABAX%2FxAAlEQACAgICAgMAAwEBAAAAAAAAAQIRAyESMQRBE1FhFDJxQgX%2F2gAMAwEAAhEDEQA%2FAIwbtj0QkQoQBz0GG3hdoaaAEsNj8YvZVybXgYWayU891NmSW7A8mVGIPmIn7B3IrammlVA2rMl9KivhEq%2BHEL2uJgv5COGfjvI20zN0FKrlrHkxrC5PtiqX0dV4%2FwD7M3%2B5v75sU29Ow9rUklnNQtXJXN%2BoJcxVXMmwv1eZudIk%2FAl3aNGSvYvaG1yzFZWf2%2Fw7Ig9FxYknviBufsibtSZUCVVtTpLCEBUx3xhrj11tYqeesXO3fR7U0tNNqPyk79EjPh6LDiwi9r9Kbd9jFoeI0uzqXkxjpIiOIad4qqqsYUgcHrdGrX%2B0Qtz7YLaX0W1ExFf8puMShrdDpiANv6XtgxwNlZ%2BRGNa7B9yYZLGCr%2FRHP%2F4o39x%2F3oD9t7OmUNTPkNPM%2FBJEwOVwZkE2tdvfDPx2ldix8uLdUOXPOFpMF7fG0Wu7no5qKyllVLV7SzMXFh6LFYXIXrdIL3AB04xZ%2FwCiCd%2FxNv7j%2FvQV47XsV%2BXH6K6lmllwOchkjZ3HYTxEKcEZHWKimV6aqqKWbM6ToWUByoW6kYrkXNsrcTE%2FYex6zazNMSb9GplOEOFJdyuRw2I87i3bHRglKDcWc2bjJKSJCoYpNqm0xb9sHq%2BiSltnVVZb9rpFuO7q%2B%2BBrej0b1NOjT6eoeoWWCxlzAS4UC5wkGz5cAB4xac%2BSpE4OnsrpIyEEUlrKIDd3pD7RqZUiXPNOGRnLBcdivC1198HA9FdV%2FwAWmf3J%2FwD2icQyeyFOmRUV08gWGpi82h6NamVKmTfypMbAjPbobXwKWtfpTa9oCdn1TTJSMxu7XBPcSPhE8rfGl7K4OLe%2FRLVb3voBFXPGnfFuVwi3ZnFWtuPP8YEIcVQMs%2BUrJkhBgBhtxDoS4ABhmXLN8zeKiCMQjoe6IR0YBeAw4sJUQq0YIqGWh28NtACjyaf9VqB%2F6Mz7jxqW4P6tpP4CfdEZXO%2FRqj%2BDM%2B40apuD%2BraT%2BAn3RCY%2FYkio333rnUVVQy0VGSodkmAg39aWoKkHIjGecGVRLDKykXDAgjmCLEQHb7bqTa2qoZiMipTuzzCScXrS2AUAZnqHW0Gc1gFJPAE%2BQiopj%2FoIlYJten7JlL%2FK04fCNC3%2B%2FVtX%2FAf7pjP%2FAEGzQ8%2FaDjRmlsPFpx%2BMaBv9%2BrKv%2BA%2F3TGMYhV%2FoH%2Fsy%2FcsfQeyP0eV%2FDT7oj58rB%2FqA%2Fgp7kj6E2P8Ao8n%2BGn3REcPv%2FTo8j%2Fn%2FAAEt8N%2FTQ1SU60xnM8oTLhwuRZ1tYj7F%2FGMq3t2q9VNn1TSjJDSllhSwY3B5jsjV97twvp1UlSKlpLJLEsBUDZBna9yft28IyPeCieVWTKJpjTrTpKKxABJmBWOQ77eEUd%2BuiUXFLfZv%2B7NKJVHTyx9WSi%2BSCJ8mcrXt9Vip7xrC5agAAaAW8oGdxNpdPLqj%2BxWTk8AVYexhDCGZ%2BkuRg2lUkC3S0mO%2FMohUnvsojT%2FR3IVNmUgUWBlK3i93Y%2BJYnxgG9MNGTV0hBznS5snxsMPtmCCH0T7dWbRrTOwE%2BnujocmwgnA1uItYE8xAXYz6Q1vXvJVSdsUNNLbDJmBS4wqcZd3Qi5FxYKpyI1jQGW4sYpN6N16avlYJ6G49R1ydCeIPwOUYRvfuDO2e2NgZtMTYTFyK30Dj6p7dDBFRcejOWF22yAWCmoUDlYkWjfCYwP0WyETaknBmDJmHW%2BojfICdqwyVOjIq%2FwBKbTZc2UtE5xq8vEJi6kFL2tAnsWhMqSuIWaxuOVyT8YKtsejU0sioqErXukuZNw4FAJVWfDe%2BQJik2ZimSUdzcsik9pIEZoaP4IEq4JPKKOdkCR%2B18YK3l3Q90CwIIfsY%2BwwrCSZSkgXj3Ba%2BcIkgkZQxNYgwxh2x5x0R8ZjoBgrELEJhawTHhENNDxhmZCmETR%2Fq1T%2FBmfceNU3C%2FVtJ%2FAT7ojLm%2FRqn%2BBM%2B48ajuF%2BraT%2BAn3RC4%2FYsiBvrvg9DMp5culNQ8%2FHhUTMBBTBkBgbFfF2aQK7e3i2vVyWlpRikRlId2mB3wkZgWAKm1%2BF4sfSL%2BstlfvTvdLiynTB8%2B6IeT5DxtRS7DBJ9gv6E6YS59egNwoki%2FP8ApYPd%2Fv1ZV%2FwH%2B6YEPRWmGu2mOTSv%2BrB7vDs41NLOkKwUzJbIGIuBiFrkR1RdpMWXbMLq6c%2Fk3FbLoJeZ7k0je9kf0Er%2BGn3RGJb67o1lFRY5lYsyWMEsIJYXq6L1uywja9j%2FAKPJ%2Fhp90QIRqx8k1Kq9ICt%2B9%2B59FVpTSZCTMckTLsxBuXmKRllaye2M5onm1u26ebNRUabPlzCinEAJCqePMKfONH353CnV1WlRLqElYZQl2ZC5yZ2J1t9e3hA%2FuxurMpNtSUmzVnFZDzQwTAFv1NOeZ84bd%2Fguq%2FTYjAD6KNk1dNJqFq5ZR3nGaLsjXxKoY9RjxWD1msCYHt1d8KbaGP6Pj%2FN2xY1C%2Bte1szfSCKC3pukH6JInAZyp6nwYHj3hYzyj3b2tNMurpKZkLAOsxJstSwOhIZwfMZxrvpWpek2XUfYCuP7LD4XhfovqhM2VTH9lWQ%2F2HZfcB5wK3YbdUQd3d8KhJsuk2nJEiomC8twVZH1FiEJwNcHjY9kGtXTJNRpcxQyMpVlIuCDkQRGdekPd2qqNo0M2TLLIhUOwIATDMDkt2WvGmwQGC%2Bjuh%2Bj7emSAbiX0yr%2B7w9kbyYxXdeYG3mqCNMU32KB8I2oiMYxmv37r6uRPlLSScDrMkl8bAgEMhIBOud4Y2XRsklEbVEVT3gWMWkv0aV0sN0dfLVcTMF6ENbESxza5is3cq3mU%2BKYwZld0JAC3wm17DIQGFE6coEs90AKv%2FSWH1mg9qW%2FNnugDpvWf94%2FGFYyPZM0iGjOJbOHkfQQmok8YARVxHRHwx0YwbYY4CEdJCw8OY4wzMh8mI8xoUx6ilpNQii7NKmKo5lkYAeZEXO73pCFLSyKd6KqZpUtUJVVsSotcXOkVGy1JmQW01GLcY5MnkPHKq7M4oHNs7cfaNZRTEpZ8pZBmFmmAAddVtoea%2B2JG0trhbhTc8TCt49oYD0Saj1j28oE580xKc%2Fkak0dWHEkrZO3U3tXZ9TVTJkmbME%2FBhKYcsAa97n7Xsgpb0y0w1pKgfyf%2FAGjNqmot2ngPx5Q7QUPSAO%2BpPVW2X8sdUczroWWBOWmEG%2FW%2F8vaNIZEqmnKxdWxNhw9U3IyOsEdB6VZSIkv6FUkoiqbBT6qgX1iBs7dvGq4tBnwv%2FgIJKbZKSxkqjty8o3zv6CvE%2B2Qv9LEv%2FcKv%2BVfxip%2F0gp9ONUaKpt0HRBcK4r48ZOulrCCkUqDthmZIXgg78oH8h%2FQf4a%2Bytn%2BlZHRlWiqgxUgXVciQQDrAT6PNtPstprTaec6zVWwQDIqW1ue2DiokDlENpAPDKD87%2Bg%2Fw1XYzt%2F0oSaimnyPolQpmSnQEhbAupCk56AkQHbk751Gzbrg6WQ5xMl7MrcWU8NNDkYvavZyvcf4RUNskE2OXP4Qyytk5eMl7NGkel7ZpW7dMp5FL%2B0G0U%2B3%2FAEqtMQpQSHxEZzZgsEByxBb6jmTbvgAmbPaU1x6t%2FC0Xmw5st2ILmXfInCSLdhuvvyvxhvk%2BiXxfbIG6FY1DWJUPLef1HxYLFiz6m5No0YelZP8AcKv%2BVfxivk7AQsJiOmXrBQUJGQuSQAe3I6X45TmpTLADXFuJFr%2BRsfjBhP0xckUuj1vSmhBH0Cr0%2FZX8YF92Kd0pTjQozTHbCdQGOV4JxLhuauRihJMqpnqN3QCyG%2FOTB9o%2B%2BNBdOo3dAFRgfSH5En2GFkUTGEfOJTNlDFStnIA4w4ksnjCoIi0dDvQNHRgBPYQro460ekQ4RDKYjzrxKJhp1hGYk7vC8zODunl6QEbAT87B5JGUeV5jqRmzM9t3E6ZfUOQfnygfqHPCDze2gVpnSJqQMY7R9ax7rQLTpJIysDbTCYfFuKZ2wncVRT0tNndwL9pgw2FQXYO2VtL8e2B2nlEzFVuJ7L9kG1MdIrJ%2FRXGqdsIKNwF5xJxi3q%2ByK6jcX9YeOUTcajjfyjRHlsViOeVoiTSecPmeltfnlFRtDbEuXll88o1GWhbtEGe2piG22VJyIA8SfZCfykpuDfyMGjOQogecVtc9je1%2FwieJqnjEWtkBl%2BMFMSXRBpnlsbFiRrh0JA4X5fhEoSqiU%2BOW3RobZK7KoXLWxucvPOBapdkfTLWJL7VuRiuMrePdBbZB0Hsuvslw7MScN%2BOedwP2eRMPCscAokxlIOtywb94NcWgIWrdgLZKDfj8NYINnTyciRpfOwt48oytCuKZfpcoGsBfJgBkD8BDL3iS81ZadaYpUjFcAjQcTxitfakoDM%2BPPzjqxOzknGno8mocDd0Z7JuKg%2FvtBxP21KKEX1EByy7TC98rk%2BcUlBsyPK9GLGw0MRJLtiizdrknnCJcjjrAcGGxvE0dEvCOUdA4sxaLMh1XvEUQ6vCAElKseOkeJf22gk2RuvMmWab1F5fXPhoIDDRU7DymfN4OZUtiLYbDty9kS6PZMmULIgB4nUnvJj2fLX6uR98cuTDGUrYVGyvfZsqYcUxRMb7V7fyjXvN4rqzdyWxyUW5AAZfERc1CnUGx%2BcsoZmTQLm%2FA8fnjG4pKkdEINdAPvBsiXIVXWUFKsDjDnxDDke60RPpbG5RTa%2BWYGXxgi2m4myyt7jiPA%2FgYBaBJ2B0GZlta5tfBwhaOjdFhOqpwPVBH7pvErZ%2B1JgPXuR2%2FjFdTSZ7H1zhyPVIUKM8Q0zvlnfKx5xZLSoZnr3Ww19Y88wLQ0o1EEZWyzr5xVL3gUqwXJOfPmYKNoJeV3CKvZ6SyrB1vcg9oK5jw%2FCJxKyK6j9ZUlois18JmOqXtlfO5XsuM7G0evVTMVipXvHxFxFpNly1JIUYr3vZrjwjpdK0w3IYjmeqPLjF5SjWiSjK9jEuSbYh5QqoNliweWBpaw4RX1AuIl2O1QOVyLiv%2FAJRGanU8PLh%2BMTamXnDMFuiPFC6NhkM%2BRz%2FCL%2BgkFxiZjbQ63FjlnrFJJk6EL8nhF1soEXVrlCLjQEHQ2MGnQjZOl1hF0wF7ZWZgijWxB5%2BXfEOqlS2vgxL2C7rftGRXvF%2BMT3oGZsB6rEXTOwfLQ8j%2BMQaykwo2I4GtpYXI4i4joxEZopKqnCWFwTxsSfeIjGJRk30B98IemZcyCPCOxdEGR0h6WbQnDDgEaQEhePtjyFYBHsJY9ExmAFzoIYO1JQNrnLWwOXnxzENbXmWQLzPsEUc2YoADAmxuLG2mg7RBjjuNnTDGnG2bLupslcImsLsRcA54QbcOffBRMqAuUZdu3vsiKqYrcML9Ud4POCs7WlsmLFn5eXPwjkmpRZljtlzMrRz98Rpm0VA4QE1W8YQkYsjl4jTzirrNvFrhTcHt05xJtluCQX1%2B8SrexGkBe2t7NZYbX1jmQM75243Ggipqai4N29tjFK1MTmFLc7AnPhew1hf9M5KJoO7u0BNDODlpbm1gNOQEP0soCe1xk6W%2FlP4E%2BUUm5tMUlvNa4%2BoBmND6xHPhEqm2pjrElg9VUYnysPaTCtbpFYy1bLqbsfFmrMB4GHE2cJYuSS3bbLwETensIr2qukfDfv8AhC2x2kOVI%2FM384HqeYA1rHXhBO6gy2ViAL5ZwMVFRLlMSczBQGy%2Fp6xDYXF%2BRGfnElpgI%2BTAIlfictaw5c%2F8e2LlK0gAg3X2iCaMkTamYBFRUTM9YcqajLjnpEKcxBAjIWbshtNuxHHt4fPbEisCJLzw4mFhx1GenCPJ%2Bjdqkew2gdpJPaSbZXJh6TIylRe01SzkC%2FVFyMiDcDIX5awR7DpRMmMwPUtli1Y5XFvH5vA9sqQGBU5Aix7CeN%2B%2BC3d9TLbMAgC%2BRyByztxBt4XikUmQndaLPbMuWksLMlu9hkQwDqeIyAJ9vCAzasky3AJvlxtcd4GQNoLdqVYeW5d8LEC2E2KjhY8CNb9toAZgsxF7kEgngbZX8Y6YRXo5%2BWthXuhTpMLYrXEXe0aeXMlEW0vnABQV7ynxIe8c4up28wMshUsx1ixF2UUwWYjttHAwyZhJueOcKUwJdFYj%2BMR7EbOPYmUIu0anG%2FK2UU897nx%2FziTPc5n5uYhsY7ppRVI7J6VCb37onU20p0sWSYcP7JzHt08IgKphetgdNT4RzySZFOi2ppjzZspHN8UxRbhYEE35iwMaIuyqdr4pKE91vdGc7sdaqQ29W58rW98afLePJ82VNJAnJskUVBIlkYZUsf2AfaYn1lSJcu6gAmwGQGZ49wz9kV4mGHXYMhDi62JOoyAvw7o87lLl2JF7BPbm0V%2Fol9bVj384HNksVqUmH1XLywe0Lf4DziU7yujZwGDsc7kkeB5d8Kopd5JHAPcHkRYju5x349M7ZPSCZ3a3zwyhiSpW%2BK9zzhFBWrMUEHXI8LHiLHtjyseYBZBfvy9sNQ6do6pL2Nmw9%2BYgcq6KcSWZSw5rmO8iLsU8%2B64ggGV8OJiM%2BTWiY2z8QUmdMYEZhVVM%2BQJH4xjUCCqV1Fu%2FKLHZVarMJY63YtzzuSeA74mPsuX9a5AH1jfFnxsM4s9jy1VC6qq39QAWsOZ5nWMqoyjQ1UyAssk88orKnVWiXtKo6trxUVE%2B%2BQgIzPMdye2KemWxN73UnyvF7smlaZMVV45k8hxPzxMNbc2S0lyRkpbyxZi%2FZwiqjKjmnJWI2dVdfLEB2%2BqfnOL2ZU5Arkx0XMEjnnkCNe2BaVMItiGnn2n3xObaSDLELAakMCO%2B5IPgBF8eP7FaslbSnlrEkkkdbP8AZ7O2ITGItVtG5yu3cR%2Fnxhha030bPkzH2GO2GLQjwcieYUko62NvIe2IC1jfWzHdY%2BfHy8YkJVqx%2FwAbCwtfUm3hFFjV7DDxd7Y%2BqfaXzhQT7S%2BZiM81eDXPI38790epMHAw%2FwAUS38eCJeHtHt%2FCOhvEY6F%2BKAfhiUNTM4Dhl%2FjEQvY3tHO9zwhIIgTdk5y5Md6TK%2FlDbNwv3%2FhDbuBrDRJJ9gA5xzylRFySCrc5LzGfhkoPtPwjSpKQDbv03RBFOurd51%2FCDlHyEeN5rbkgdj6iJKLzzHwOo8ojK8SA8eeYE6vdEdbDOIT6q4LkdhN8xwismURkowZgxJvcAgaW4wZ1M2BfbDax2YpydJjrJJqijpprI5IOR1F9e23Axd0lUrHM%2FP4wPMc4rZ20TLmBkuQc2HMXysOGUej8doeGRrs02ZmvbwNvfFfNd%2BfuhyjnFCiTPrpjRhmsyWfrK3EjiNRfuic0kHQXiEo0dcJqStFIZLNrf2xYqpWXn3RJKBBnlFZtKsAy4Ae2FpBZQV80lyOAiJftj2abk98Tti0HSNdh1FzPaQdIeEbZCcqQS7r0fRy8bDrTM%2B5eA%2BPjE%2Fb9KsyROuD%2FRtmBcggYlYdxAhctwBf5MSdnMJ4nSnAF5RKjmCGVge0XXzjtXFKjilblZjNQZkuZZwb9oIuDoRfneEsSxgh3l2eWEuYCzBZah1IOJTo4v8AWW9iOV4oUyOdz3Wi%2BKKfZ0499ipMv%2FPj4RJSXpDPTm4ysP3b%2Bf8AhDizwcsJHbwy1yjrVJHQqQ7gF9L9p0ENz6gICBqMidPkdkeTpjaAEeQGtr5%2FOcQGpXYi9uwXhJz%2BhJya6ONQScr%2FAD8Imye%2FOG0oCBmwB8%2Ffa0OrKUfXt4ju0zgx12aCfsl9JHQzgH7R%2Bf7MdDWhyjIhmZO5Q50THXIHnClRV5HtMctNnBtkdZZOZBgi3f2UcpriwHqDn9o9nKKOa%2BV%2FZGgtoOGQ8NIhNbF4pCaY%2FnBBLLmwMjJhD9TtkSyFAu3abAd%2F4RwZcUskqiPCLkFSmHHfLPKM72lvVOIGAYF4kHU9%2FCK9dpmZ67MSf2mJEGH%2FAJbf9nRRY97NFmst%2FXXzH4xRbXYEZEeECjutwMWG%2BYyveEzKxUyZnI%2Fcy7c7x0LwIwfYzhGPsVV1wU4Rm3uPhFXWrnz0HsiQsp5nWlSJjAm2IKzLrmcha%2FjD8%2FZc45mU9h9k%2FwCcdCUUqTEST0jUfR8kqr2YsuYuIS2ZLA4SuE3V1bVWwkC45QvaW7NXKBaSenTsIWYB9pclY9q27opvRbX9E0yW7YEClirBgTnk4H2T1TYfWBjUUnZBlIIPIjCe0Hl2wsoRlog8k8UtdGPVe0ZgJV1ZWGobqnuirnTGc3OcbpVUUmetpktW7SBcdzQBbf2BTS5mBJkstbFgJwuozsSRlbI2va9o5J4nHo6sfkKbpgPIpi7hRlfU8hxPfBVSSwgAUWA%2BbxJ2fOp6aWZiy1aaxuWZS6y0FxYXyJ%2FGJc2oQ%2FnHe9xqSBlwAGgEGD4oWb5SoalSze7fPZDyzhLdXJsL4LjlM6p8LkGKz8vSnbDLDzDp1BdRb7Wghra889Eboyd%2BG99QQRrBvdi0JrJeJ2pXB62JlN7ZE6i%2FVvnmNSDGdVsl5LtLf1lNuV%2BRg1nbRxTVEycofIgMBc3NhbMZ5nLO9og72bP6QrMl9dyLHmSNR2x1xn7GjdAuJl%2BMe3Ot4YksQbafOcP3MdMXY6lY6tURfJTzuOPnHGeeQHt98ML3CE4OMYPJj%2FTHh7hCknN%2B0fdw7PnKI4W0SaYC%2BUaUg8mxGf7TecdFn0X2Y6J8jWyieU%2FEH%2FOGGJ5GHHqjyENfSGPPzMGTOZtD1HKxzEVsgWAN%2BV7%2FAAtB07wMbvUeNjMa9kIw2Ora59wHti32ltBJQ6xzP1Rme88o55W3omSmfrDv90DlVVHpGIJ1Jh%2F8sIc1yPbmO6IrVJGYbLlw9sVwwq2zpx9HpYEkZgEXt25xCU2Nj4RIdxe4y7ojTsybc789YtL7DJ%2ByahDrgORGh5H8OFoYUscUttdNdPCORWPWtYcSSAAYVOXFZr2NrXAMTnTViS2g13VmtLo3RbEq7W4jMA588xHmzPpExmPTMANcg3kDlEDdKtADyOYxrzvowyy0ibQOUZ00ub8o4sip2aOuidUS56%2BsFmcjgKH%2BaWcjkNBDFLvHNpwVVnl3JJUuHW5zNjMS48r9sSvpJUax5N2mQDibK3L8RCWwuN9kzZm9NTMVg05wMXVsEUkWuRjCXHE5QpquWSSQWJzJYkk95Opgfm0bGX0jkoxbEksWARb%2BswGpYDwEN7LV58szOkKJjKEoFxZKDjz4Z28IzbYFBLomV%2B0UKhZgBAYDBcqWz0yI7D25w62x5c8Bps5xzlqAEy%2BrcHFbTPs0hufsGWQJoDu4W4BbUcfZnaOoFmMMahVlLcsWYlshcgcvGFCWisksASwSF0VVwi%2FbmYjVazJo6ykDhrxhzZrvMlrMCEAgGxsSL6XETJlVaWz5dVST2ZcRwgmAWslqWbHbELC5FyMNh36384vKeSjy3I6uEnNciG4EezsgbkyAWea6h8RLda9uJytnfSDjZtLJaSHOAOSWte5N8xfhYXtHTAMU7M%2B2vSNLm3OeLO%2BQGL6wyiIBF7tWhea7MLgKpcLckNwUgciBbLlFFnxjoxsY9vHlo7tjrQ5jsMeo9jcQkWj2Wh1EajUTPphjoj9Ge2OgUYqXEKlymJAA1%2BfkQssF74cpW48b2HfCUmctJsIqasEqWJcuU5sPWYqlycybHPs8IqJ8kuxZ1cknMgq%2F3c48WobTPwYN7Gjx2B1VX7QMD%2BQ1guMUtDaIrUwU5HwIsfbCJk3LCL9vC0PMwI6rkW%2Bq%2FwADEZ2F8zYjxETbroRv6JFKMrkjx5c7Xz7oVMqgDkPE2J8tAI6UboRiAyB118IiIg1JGsa2G3RISY7nM6fOXKJYkjnfvzMRZVsrRJ6Qcxf57Y6McVWzoxpVsdoXaVMSYt%2Bq1%2FD6w8RBfVyGdwyDqEBg50NxwP1uPlAlLYQVbs1FpT9IyGWGsoLgPn62EX9Uf5RDycaqwzSSL2mpVCKWBZiNAI6pdFzwDFwGWXaQNISNrS5YtjHYCVHtJvArtnbmMsEYciQR5COFoSztvbUd26KWbs3rEZnPLCO%2BLevYy6db4cfR9YgBcRGWLIZ8R4RD3b2dLQdLMdMbaDGt1B8fWOvZpEreeYBZbiwZF7LYl%2FEwaAmXMg4cA4hQPIAH4w1tCgIDNL9V%2FXlnJT2jkYWlZLJymJe%2F7S%2FAw7Nq5drCal%2B11%2FGBQbQulq1OFh1bdRlPAfVPaL3F%2B2K%2FeHZ2K8xbjI4sJIuLcQMiYkTGly0LzHRVuCWJsLDQDtJ5RT1u8pmdWS6IufWNi78giWOEfaNjGijN0QN09mfSADMmqilsIATE7WOHIXte9ufOCCXKWjDqyl2loUlOylCWABFl%2FaIa19OrAZLrJkiZaS6Azc%2BsRdH0ve9gOOcX1Sk6ewlNMxuwvMa6FLEWDy8FiSQCLG2kdMXQE2TtkUyGnLdTG%2BJekdwcBUHBkTfCb2t3wFbRpHlkY8ILXPVN17h3fCC2koZcpmlTJino7KMTYCwI6psdLXztrYZxH2vspprMqTpbqilparmzDUi4OoyHjFYSKx2gOWPDHGPVI0iyNVHgXlHqx4WtClgsx75x0dHQoCo1MSJDZHsUxHLQtTkfL4mJWcaYsNi9bM%2BV%2FwDGOSoYZajkc4bYZQtkJGLz%2FHuhU3Rth96M9p7PDtKrJImTJ0yWkq8vGAW6tsTHqjEVjSt6JGyKCWsyfSSwHYouCUrHFYn4Rg%2B6n6fSf1mT%2FwAxI1308kimprf7Y%2FcaEFJno93fon2ZJmzaaU7YWZmZFZjhZuPHIQOUU7ZlbtalWmp1Ero5gdWlhFZrEg2%2BtYWzg39GmH8jyMXq4Hxd2J7%2ByAvYEzZzbapTs5Qsvonx2Djr2b9vstGMQvTLsuRTzacSZSSw0uYWwKFuQVte3eYK9pbvUi7FaaKeUJgpMYfCMWLowb353gf9PA%2FO0v8ADm%2B9INNq%2FqB%2F6l%2F0xDekF9GCubKT9k%2B6PoDd3dahelp3akkszSkJJRSSSoJJj56mtke4%2B6PpHZVV0dBSNzWQnL18CfGHyvoplfQO7g7nUolVHTSJbn6XOCF1DFUVgiqCeHUJ8YqfyFS%2F%2BIuh6CX0X0bF0eEYMVtcOl40k2lzJctcsbTHPkWPfm0A%2FwD5n%2F8AifCJEhe%2BcjZdMjyPoa9NMku0vo5KtbLCCSPVsxGcBFKgmVFHLmKHVpspWVhcHKzAjwEHPpSqNnIh%2BkX%2BkmS3QEY765ZqbetbWALdyRUNPopsxbD6RK%2Brhya%2BEg3Ie9j2i2YhWtoePTNI323Toxs%2BpaVTSkdJTOrKiqw6MY7gjTJTFnsvc%2BhEmWGpJJbAtyUUknCLkm2Zi2rGV5hp2zWZJe47AVVvZMELpKjFNmoNJeAeLKW8MisMIZN6LN2ZNU8%2BdUL0iyJplypbZoDcsThORsCoA0gxOwqHaMicopklFJs2UroqK6vLYpjUqOYvYxXehb9Hqv65M%2B7Li93C%2Fo6r%2BvVP%2FNaMYEvRTsKnnSJ5qJEqY6T2TEyA%2BqqjK%2FDK8XL7t7NrJE9pFOsmZLmTJYmIoR0mSWIxAjUXA8DCPRF%2FRVf9cmfCLUTA9HU%2Fk7AjiZOVsasQZoZukOTZEnQ5jMZRjA96MtkU9XRmdUyJc2a06YWZ1DH1tLnhFBvJUUkyZKagktIMppod1lrLDWsmEHR%2BsGEFnoX%2FAFYL%2FwC1md%2BvGBvadLs%2BfVItGXlgdMZ74JhW454zY9fFp2wY9jw%2FsgJ3i2cZU0%2BthcYgWABzOYIGVx8YpOJ0i8rJTATBMWawDXSZZyuG9hkwsFPPtimdSDp86fjHQmdfI9U%2BJj0HKPEOWcdeGszY5eOhF49jWAqjnwj1gRYeffCxYcQT3iEZE6j2RCjkocSXzhxRaPA4HEeYhXSDmPMRRKI6pEzd0hK6lZiAoqJTXOQAExCbngBGnemvakidT04lTZbkTiSEdWIGA5mxjIncW4HsvDAUHiPHKJOOxGj6D9He16RdlyJcyolo2FlZWmIrC7NwJyyMD9DszZ1DtOianqVZCs7GzTUdVIUYRcWC3uYxnLsh2UwBztw5aiFrYqN89IFLsyslNNeqQzJUqZ0YSaguSL2IzxZgZRZUG0KGds2XTzamUoenVHAmIrC6AEZnIxgUsoy6KCOPV%2BbwziUa2v8A2Yp8f6V%2BP9Lje7Z8mTVTpdNMLylVcLYw97pc9YZHONS23vBTpseRhnIzy%2ForFFdS%2FwCbmSmYYQb3AUxifSjmvsEeKV16vmsaUVS2aUU0tn0LX7yUx2jTAVEroxJnMzY0whiZYUFr5G2LKBz8rU%2F%2FAIj6XppfR%2FRsOPGuC9tMV7XjHCU%2Bz7IT1fs%2ByF4fovD9N534oNl1qmbMq0xy5ThAk6WATYsARqcwIy3c%2Faj9NSLMmKsuTPQ3LYQFZjrlmAeJOUDClbjT2RL2ZPVJqAsFRjZibMAGuM73yzHvgNUaq9m91%2B8dKNpUpFRKKmTPRmDqQCWksoJvlfCbR5u3vFSmqr2aolKGqECFpigMFkS0utzmLqc4zKv2eVmGWhVkJxIMCJ0ktbXKvhsbgg8NREikpaUqA0lLhc8aF3DmosBiGRAlYjbTSF90FwLb0UbzyJD1Eic6oJk1pktyQEJuVZSxyBsqkdkGo2vR7NkTmNSswvNmzlRWRnZprlwiqDmbm14z%2Bnl7NQ2EuW13BKlGY4DPZQ18JATouFxxyvaJk2loyoQSZQuJbnBLKtnPsesouLSwPPOCkDgWvoo2pKkyahaibLlTGqGcqzqp6yqdCdM4n7m7apUkVgafKUtV1LKC6glWc4SLnMHgYH02fIZ2CyZRIUEEypj2LTBcYcF2PRmwte2IdsSH2PIZVCSZVxMdUKJexWfoWVCAAgN7sNeJjUFw2TvRNtmml0GCZPlo3SucLOqmxNwbE6GKvb9BJkvJSgq2mNOmuHliasxQrKzscKjq9b3w1UmTOd5b0q4laal%2BhJVbTEEgmykm8vEeNuNsoe2WFlmX0MpECJMd5nRNiBLv0QLMA1iCOra%2BhOWpWmZRp6KisnpiNOVZ3ZCcC4jkQbG9xofdA1t2iwEOqkKyqSCLEMQMSntDBh4QeTKymmTCrlAVe9sDXY9EpXEcAYKHx30uBa2cVs2okTFmyVCvNJly7hHtdxMxlFYdW1lz0vpFOW7Ojn9me4oUpgjq1pJKGTMClxLmXfA4czBOHR2JGX5vF2DjaPKvaFGOlWSZIxymAOF7ZTUZFsUyfow%2BeeeG5huSA5pMHsJ5x7DfTLz90dDWg80fR5hbaR5HRE5REemOjoYYSNIVwjo6FYshwwh46OhfYp4NY9jo6KMuc0dHR0KxTwx7HR0Yx0eHUd8dHQJdCsffRO%2BPH49%2FwEdHQq7KIbp%2BPd8YUusex0Ojeys27%2Bjv3D3rE3d79Elfuj3R0dAfZn2TF4d%2F4QttD3iOjoHsJDm%2BuY6T66%2FPER5HQ76M%2Bj2dqPnjCI6OgoB7HR0dBMf%2F2Q%3D%3D&hash=5eb8b89b8c8a36e89288d6da6dc5007c)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 25, 2021, 08:24:27 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on May 24, 2021, 07:32:33 PM

1. Any foreign government funding Wuhan’s lab (such as ours) should stop their funding.

2. An investigation should be opened into WHO’s supposed early-2020 investigation of Wuhan’s lab when Wuhan was known to be the Covid source. What we increasingly know now should’ve been uncovered by WHO who had privileged access to Wuhan’s lab.

Investigate THIS. And do not re-join THIS.


(https://i.imgur.com/WgqgZaO.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 25, 2021, 08:44:18 AM
Lincoln, Neb. (KPTM) — Governor Pete Ricketts announced a return to normalcy in a press conference on Monday.

He said Nebraska will be pulling out of the federal extra unemployment program starting June 19th.

This is the program that provided those on unemployment because of COVID an extra $300 a week.

Nebraska is also pulling out of three other federal unemployment programs: The Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, which extended unemployment insurance to people who wouldn't normally qualify, like gig workers and people who are self-employed; the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation, which allowed people on the unemployment program to stay on it longer than usual; and the Mixed Earner Unemployment Compensation, which allowed an extra $100 in benefits for people who made money through self-employment and a more traditional job.

The directed health measures such as quarantining will no longer be required as of 11:59 p.m. on Monday he said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 25, 2021, 08:44:39 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 24, 2021, 08:37:12 PM
Is it ok to call it the Chinese virus yet?
yes, but not on this thread
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 25, 2021, 09:07:55 AM
China virus, sure.

Wuhan Flu is probably iffy.

Kung  Flu is definitely over the top and more than a little racist.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 25, 2021, 09:17:21 AM
I'd rather we not use China virus. Covid is fine.

What I don't get is why it's OK to call it a UK variant or South African variant. I wish that would stop too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 25, 2021, 09:36:06 AM
UK is a country, not a race

you know, like China
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on May 25, 2021, 09:46:07 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on May 24, 2021, 09:43:33 PM
Viruses very commonly start in China. What would be the benefit of stopping research there?

Because, to begin with, funding China based research obviously didn’t do us any good anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 25, 2021, 11:35:54 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 25, 2021, 09:17:21 AM
I'd rather we not use China virus. Covid is fine.

What I don't get is why it's OK to call it a UK variant or South African variant. I wish that would stop too.
I don't.  When discussing differences in potency and potentially diminished vaccine efficacy, I find the geographic descriptors to be far more memorable than something like B.113.17 or whatever.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 25, 2021, 03:10:17 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/22dLetz.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 25, 2021, 03:39:01 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/kOpcaVQ.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 25, 2021, 03:54:54 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/eUJy62Y.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on May 26, 2021, 11:04:10 AM
Well my (very large chemical company) employer sent out a note yesterday that if you're immunized and past the 14 day mark you don't have to wear a mask anymore.  They said they're going to rely on some sort of "honor system" and trust but verify.  I'm not sure exactly how that's going to work, but I think they can't legally ask to see your vaccine card unless you report to medical and show it to them.  So I think they're going to randomly ask people if they're vaccinated, and then send them to medical to verify.  It's kind of a weird situation but Monday will mark my two weeks post #2 so I'm ready to ditch this mask, hopefully forever. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 26, 2021, 11:55:05 AM
The CDC has been slow to offer sensible guidelines in my view.  Outside is safe, it just is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 26, 2021, 12:06:31 PM
my daughter is a server for Outback Steakhouse

the Outback company is offering $75 for employees who are vaccinated, plus no mask requirement

this will require proof

one of her right leaning co-workers, that is anti-vax, doesn't think it's fair

My daughter is scheduled for her vaccination
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 26, 2021, 12:21:35 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 26, 2021, 12:06:31 PM
my daughter is a server for Outback Steakhouse

the Outback company is offering $75 for employees who are vaccinated, plus no mask requirement

this will require proof

one of her right leaning co-workers, that is anti-vax, doesn't think it's fair

My daughter is scheduled for her vaccination

Good for Outback.

And screw stupid people who think it's "not fair." 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 26, 2021, 12:32:21 PM
hah, that's what my daughter and I think.

this other server is not being forced to do anything.  He/she can continue to wear a mask and avoid the $75 incentive, if they choose
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 26, 2021, 12:35:05 PM
I dont think its unreasonable for an employer to require vaccination

If I ran a company thats how I'd go
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 26, 2021, 12:57:03 PM
Health privacy laws might say otherwise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 26, 2021, 02:11:15 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 26, 2021, 12:57:03 PM
Health privacy laws might say otherwise.
I dont think HIPPA would prevent this but the Employer should make sure not to violate any religious mandate the employee may have and should make sure there is no cost involved

Plus if the employee has any medical reason for not getting vaccinated that should be considered

I like the idea of a small cash bonus being paid for getting vaccinated as well
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 26, 2021, 02:15:10 PM
I should have held out for an incentive
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 26, 2021, 02:53:44 PM
Free sharkwater for all who are vaxed!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 26, 2021, 03:21:58 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 26, 2021, 02:53:44 PM
Free sharkwater for all who are vaxed!

Throw in one free pulmonary resuscitation and ya got a deal
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 26, 2021, 03:55:32 PM
sounds like a theme for the party this season
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 26, 2021, 05:02:59 PM
A little good news.......


https://www.foxnews.com/health/mild-coronavirus-infection-lasting-antibody-protection-research
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on May 26, 2021, 09:39:06 PM
Looks like even the current administration is admitting what we all know about the source.

I don't give two craps about blame.  I do care about preventing the next one
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on May 27, 2021, 01:54:10 AM
We shall see, but if virology employees were hospitalized with respiratory illness in Nov. 2019 an accidental release of a virus into the public domain seems a reasonable theory.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 27, 2021, 06:24:01 AM
It is a reasonable theory indeed, and I think some punitive measures are warranted if they can be coordinated, if that is true.  If China tried to cover this up, they are at fault, and won't change that tactic in the future without some form of punishment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 27, 2021, 10:36:58 AM
the punishment would need to be severe to warrant a different tactic by the Chinese in the future

It won't be enough

perhaps the punishment should be that all foreign loans/debt should be forgiven?

no other country/entity owes China a dime 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 27, 2021, 10:40:27 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 27, 2021, 10:36:58 AM
the punishment would need to be severe to warrant a different tactic by the Chinese in the future

It won't be enough

perhaps the punishment should be that all foreign loans/debt should be forgiven?

no other country/entity owes China a dime
If you think about sheer economic cost to all nations of this pandemic (and those costs won't end for many more years), then yeah, loans owed to China are a drop in the bucket compared to the cost.

Hundreds of trillions of dollars will ultimately be the total economic cost of this pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 27, 2021, 10:48:08 AM
perhaps China should owe the rest of the world hundreds of trillions
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 27, 2021, 10:50:40 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 27, 2021, 10:48:08 AM
perhaps China should owe the rest of the world hundreds of trillions
That would be fair, from an economic standpoint.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 27, 2021, 10:57:34 AM
unfortunately, the world isn't fair
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 27, 2021, 10:59:37 AM
CDC approves first cruise ship to sail with paying passengers in June (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/cdc-approves-first-cruise-ship-to-sail-with-paying-passengers-in-june/ar-AAKrpQb?ocid=msedgntp)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 27, 2021, 11:01:47 AM
Quote
unfortunately, the world isn't fair


No, no it isn't.

I just looked it up on the intergoogles and if they are correct, then China only owns a small portion of the US national debt.  Around $1.1 trillion out of $26 trillion, so around 4%.

The most recent stimulus package was $1.9 trillion which by itself accounts for almost double the portion of the national debt owed to China.

So... yeah...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 27, 2021, 11:07:22 AM
Quote from: utee94 on May 27, 2021, 11:01:47 AM

No, no it isn't.

I just looked it up on the intergoogles and if they are correct, then China only owns a small portion of the US national debt.  Around $1.1 trillion out of $26 trillion, so around 4%.

The most recent stimulus package was $1.9 trillion which by itself accounts for almost double the portion of the national debt owed to China.

So... yeah...

How much real estate do they own here? How much money do they have in Wall Street?

It's all a mess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 27, 2021, 11:27:46 AM
Quote from: utee94 on May 27, 2021, 11:01:47 AM

No, no it isn't.

I just looked it up on the intergoogles and if they are correct, then China only owns a small portion of the US national debt.  Around $1.1 trillion out of $26 trillion, so around 4%.

The most recent stimulus package was $1.9 trillion which by itself accounts for almost double the portion of the national debt owed to China.

So... yeah...

fine, now China owes the USA 2 trillion

if it were up to me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 27, 2021, 11:41:49 AM
Well, any time you talk about what "China" owns, you have to ask yourself whether that is what "China" owns or whether that's what "Chinese people" own... 

Two completely different things. Some rich dude in Shanghai who bought up a few million dollars worth of rental properties in Irvine CA doesn't "owe" anyone squat. Some rich dude in Shenzhen who has $25M in wealth in Wall Street stocks doesn't "owe" anyone squat. Those dudes weren't doing virology research in Wuhan or weren't strongarming the WHO to keep things quiet.

I think the $1.1T that "China" owns of US debt is likely their sovereign wealth fund, so that would legitimately be owned by the Chinese gov't. 

However... Reneging on US treasury bonds, EVEN for China, may not be a great idea for anyone who wants the USD to remain the world's primary reserve currency... So it could end up hurting us FAR worse than the $1.1T "windfall" we'd get from stiffing China on those bonds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 27, 2021, 11:56:17 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 27, 2021, 11:41:49 AM
Well, any time you talk about what "China" owns, you have to ask yourself whether that is what "China" owns or whether that's what "Chinese people" own...

Two completely different things. Some rich dude in Shanghai who bought up a few million dollars worth of rental properties in Irvine CA doesn't "owe" anyone squat. Some rich dude in Shenzhen who has $25M in wealth in Wall Street stocks doesn't "owe" anyone squat. Those dudes weren't doing virology research in Wuhan or weren't strongarming the WHO to keep things quiet.


Well, sort of, but not really.  The CCP has proven time and again it won't hesitate to nationalize "private" holdings.  Nobody in China really owns anything, if or when the CCP decides they want it.

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 27, 2021, 11:41:49 AM
I think the $1.1T that "China" owns of US debt is likely their sovereign wealth fund, so that would legitimately be owned by the Chinese gov't.

However... Reneging on US treasury bonds, EVEN for China, may not be a great idea for anyone who wants the USD to remain the world's primary reserve currency... So it could end up hurting us FAR worse than the $1.1T "windfall" we'd get from stiffing China on those bonds.


But I completely agree with this.  It's something that angry people talk about-- and I believe they have that right-- but in reality, it would do far more harm than good.  Ultimately, $1.1T just "isn't much" in the grand scheme of things.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 27, 2021, 12:20:22 PM
Instead of payback we should be looking for a way to keep this from happening in the future or maybe a better early warning system if it does
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 27, 2021, 12:27:21 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 27, 2021, 12:20:22 PM
Instead of payback we should be looking for a way to keep this from happening in the future or maybe a better early warning system if it does
I think we should be looking at both.  Prevention is of course critical.

But I don't think "blaming China" and enacting sanctions against them should be off the table either.  Because part of an effective prevention plan, could very well be punishing them for this occurrence in the first place, to discourage them from enabling future outbreaks.

How to do that-- how to make it large enough and punitive enough to be effective-- is certainly a challenge.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 27, 2021, 12:29:28 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 27, 2021, 12:20:22 PM
Instead of payback we should be looking for a way to keep this from happening in the future or maybe a better early warning system if it does
We had something like that and a certain someone cut funding for it.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 27, 2021, 12:29:55 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 27, 2021, 12:20:22 PM
Instead of payback we should be looking for a way to keep this from happening in the future or maybe a better early warning system if it does
yup, why can't we have all three?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 27, 2021, 12:42:45 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 27, 2021, 12:29:28 PM
We had something like that and a certain someone cut funding for it. 
what the hell are you talking about
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 27, 2021, 12:44:35 PM
The good news about an entangled economy is we usually wouldn't go to war with them.  And vice versa.  Hopefully.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 27, 2021, 12:54:27 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 27, 2021, 12:44:35 PM
The good news about an entangled economy is we usually wouldn't go to war with them.  And vice versa.  Hopefully.
I don't believe the CCP has any interest in destroying us, or anyone else.  Physically.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 27, 2021, 12:55:49 PM
I certainly agree, they take a longer term view of things.

War would be contrary to what they want for the future.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 27, 2021, 01:02:37 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 27, 2021, 12:42:45 PM
what the hell are you talking about
damn you
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 27, 2021, 01:24:10 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 27, 2021, 01:02:37 PM
damn you
sorry knee jerk reaction
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on May 27, 2021, 02:52:37 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 27, 2021, 12:42:45 PM
what the hell are you talking about


A certain international organization tasked with informing the public on health threats such as pandemics was insistent on Covid's inability to transit human to human. Funding was later cut.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 27, 2021, 02:54:07 PM
WHO?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 27, 2021, 03:12:32 PM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on May 27, 2021, 02:52:37 PM

A certain international organization tasked with informing the public on health threats such as pandemics was insistent on Covid's inability to transit human to human. Funding was later cut.
don't think that was what he was talking about, but I don't want to talk about it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 27, 2021, 03:20:54 PM
*sigh*

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 27, 2021, 03:23:45 PM
The CDC
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 27, 2021, 03:34:47 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/RELYdHn.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 27, 2021, 03:46:14 PM
Me when 'Fro and anyone else get into it...

(https://media2.giphy.com/media/dAuumiq85i5evf5UVY/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 27, 2021, 04:57:22 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 27, 2021, 03:46:14 PM
Me when 'Fro and anyone else get into it...


Just have to do a little research. It's not hard.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 27, 2021, 05:08:14 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 27, 2021, 04:57:22 PM
Just have to do a little research. It's not hard.
Oh I think y'all know I'm more willing to go overboard on researching in any argument ;-) 

But that only helps in situations where someone will actually accept research as valid...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on May 27, 2021, 05:15:09 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 27, 2021, 10:48:08 AM
perhaps China should owe the rest of the world hundreds of trillions
That’s one of those things that sounds good, and then the mechanics would be just a nightmare. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 27, 2021, 10:19:56 PM
the last 15 months have been a nightmare

let's get knee deep in the mechanics

we have time 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 27, 2021, 10:46:44 PM
Yeah, like I said, I don't believe in some vindictive reaction to China's actions.

But I also don't think taking punitive action is wrong.  I actually believe there's a moral and ethical obligation to do so.

I just don't know how it would actually work in real life.  I don't know what realistic actions could be taken by the rest of the global community that could be effective in actually dissuading such careless and/or deliberately dangerous activity in the future.

But that doesn't mean it isn't worthy of exploring and enacting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 12:16:53 AM
I think for China to lose substantial "face" internationally would be worth something, shorter term, it would get forgotten.

Maybe WHO etc. would be more wary of their claims, for a year or so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 28, 2021, 06:10:19 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on May 27, 2021, 02:52:37 PM

A certain international organization tasked with informing the public on health threats such as pandemics was insistent on Covid's inability to transit human to human. Funding was later cut.
That isn't really accurate - members of WHO were talking it being transmissable and a big threat, and what the "insistence" was really one tweet saying the evidence wasn't clear and was designed to placate China (who is also a major donor to WHO). WHO has no power in itself, so pissing off China is a good way to have no ability to do anything whatsoever. That ended up pissing off America, though our response was sort of snivelling more than any sort of major policy. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 28, 2021, 08:43:17 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on May 28, 2021, 06:10:19 AM
That isn't really accurate - members of WHO were talking it being transmissable and a big threat, and what the "insistence" was really one tweet saying the evidence wasn't clear and was designed to placate China (who is also a major donor to WHO). WHO has no power in itself, so pissing off China is a good way to have no ability to do anything whatsoever. That ended up pissing off America, though our response was sort of snivelling more than any sort of major policy.
Yeah, OK.

(https://i.imgur.com/rSB58NY.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 28, 2021, 08:47:37 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 28, 2021, 08:43:17 AM
Yeah, OK.

[img width=361.81 height=441]https://i.imgur.com/rSB58NY.png[/img]
Yes, that's the one tweet. Saying WHO was insistent on it is quite inaccurate. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 28, 2021, 08:48:43 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on May 28, 2021, 06:10:19 AM
That isn't really accurate - members of WHO were talking it being transmissable and a big threat, and what the "insistence" was really one tweet saying the evidence wasn't clear and was designed to placate China (who is also a major donor to WHO). WHO has no power in itself, so pissing off China is a good way to have no ability to do anything whatsoever. That ended up pissing off America, though our response was sort of snivelling more than any sort of major policy.
I'm not sure I agree that our response to the WHO's outright lying and manipulation was "sniveling."  The USA pulled its funding from the WHO.

That funding was subsequently reinstated earlier this year, for reasons we can't discuss on this thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 28, 2021, 08:58:10 AM
Quote from: utee94 on May 28, 2021, 08:48:43 AM
I'm not sure I agree that our response to the WHO's outright lying and manipulation was "sniveling."  The USA pulled its funding from the WHO.

That funding was subsequently reinstated earlier this year, for reasons we can't discuss on this thread.
Well, without making it political, we also got caught lying and manipulating about COVID, so pulling WHO funding felt more like scapegoating than some actual policy rooted in fact. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 28, 2021, 09:01:11 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on May 28, 2021, 08:58:10 AM
Well, without making it political, we also got caught lying and manipulating about COVID, so pulling WHO funding felt more like scapegoating than some actual policy rooted in fact.
Red herring, common logical fallacy.

You stated our response was sniveling.  I responded that we pulled all funding.  That doesn't constitute a "sniveling" response. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 28, 2021, 09:03:35 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on May 28, 2021, 08:58:10 AM
Well, without making it political, we also got caught lying and manipulating about COVID, so pulling WHO funding felt more like scapegoating than some actual policy rooted in fact.
Yes, "we" did.


Dr. Fauci again dismisses Wuhan lab as source of coronavirus

(https://i.imgur.com/nufHK2g.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 10:32:30 AM
Saying there is no evidence doesn't mean evidence won't surface later.

It may well have been true at the time there was no evidence, I dunno when he said that.  There is SOME evidence now, but it is hardly compelling.

We still don't know, and may never know, for sure.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 28, 2021, 10:36:27 AM
That was from last May, 2020. There was evidence then, but it was silenced.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 28, 2021, 12:33:58 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 28, 2021, 09:01:11 AM
Red herring, common logical fallacy.

You stated our response was sniveling.  I responded that we pulled all funding.  That doesn't constitute a "sniveling" response.

Sniveling, as in pouty and ineffective. Taking away our funding just makes WHO more reliant on China, which is directly counter to our interests.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 28, 2021, 01:14:36 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on May 28, 2021, 12:33:58 PM
Sniveling, as in pouty and ineffective. Taking away our funding just makes WHO more reliant on China, which is directly counter to our interests.
Its not a matter of trying to keep China from influencing WHO

That has already happened

Its a matter of not funding an organization that does not have the US's well being at heart or the rest of the World for that matter

Has anyone looked at a list of countries that fund WHO and by how much

The US was/is funding around $600M vs China's $75M

For WHO to treat us the way they did our action was warranted
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 28, 2021, 01:24:55 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on May 28, 2021, 12:33:58 PM
Sniveling, as in pouty and ineffective. Taking away our funding just makes WHO more reliant on China, which is directly counter to our interests.
We hardly need some bullshit organization siphoning off more funds from the teetering treasury.Put it in something over here.The CCP lied thru their teeth months ago when they stated they only had 5 thousand some odd deaths from covid.

  (https://media.tenor.com/images/32bacce37ab96b986e71cf10538a3b96/tenor.gif)      That's why their production in everything electronic is months behind
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 28, 2021, 02:42:09 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on May 28, 2021, 12:33:58 PM
Sniveling, as in pouty and ineffective. Taking away our funding just makes WHO more reliant on China, which is directly counter to our interests.
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 28, 2021, 01:14:36 PM
Its not a matter of trying to keep China from influencing WHO

That has already happened

Its a matter of not funding an organization that does not have the US's well being at heart or the rest of the World for that matter

Has anyone looked at a list of countries that fund WHO and by how much

The US was/is funding around $600M vs China's $75M

For WHO to treat us the way they did our action was warranted

Yeah, I have to completely disagree with you Max, and agree with LH320.  The WHO has already proven it's completely subservient to China.  There is zero point in continuing funding to that corrupt organization.  If you want to talk about "sniveling," the picture next to the definition in the dictionary, is the WHO.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 02:53:35 PM
WHO might well just be incompetent instead of subservient and corrupt.  It's a possibility.  They could also be all three.

I'd trust Shell station day old sushi more.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 28, 2021, 03:31:56 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 28, 2021, 02:42:09 PM
Yeah, I have to completely disagree with you Max, and agree with LH320.  The WHO has already proven it's completely subservient to China.  There is zero point in continuing funding to that corrupt organization.  If you want to talk about "sniveling," the picture next to the definition in the dictionary, is the WHO.
Well, I'm sure they were subservient to China. They were undoubtedly subservient to us. We helped set their agenda and pick their programs. People act as if they are some sort of powerful entity that somehow lords over world health. In reality, they are a relatively small entity that does much of their work in parts of Africa and other poorer areas. Their total budget is about four billion less than the CDC. They have no independent power to override China or anyone else - they have to navigate that same sea that people like John Cena find themselves in.

Anyways, I feel pretty confident saying our response and statements about COVID were many times more incompetent and dishonest than anything the WHO did. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 03:38:33 PM
The results in the US are hardly much different than results in other comparable countries.  Area under the curve and all that.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 28, 2021, 03:44:16 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 03:38:33 PM
The results in the US are hardly much different than results in other comparable countries.  Area under the curve and all that.
Germany did much better, and works very closely with the WHO. I guess it pays to not get in a snit about tweets.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 03:52:55 PM
Germany did do better, other countries in Europe did about the same, or worse.

I don't think the results have a single thing to do with WHO.  It's probably much more related to cultures.   The wife explains this that Germans are much more apt to following orders than the Romantic language countries.  Belgium did quite a bit worse, though their accounting could be different.  Denmark did better.

The UK did about the same as us despite being on an island.

WHO is irrelevant to these statistics in my view.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 28, 2021, 03:57:49 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 03:52:55 PM
Germany did do better, other countries in Europe did about the same, or worse.

I don't think the results have a single thing to do with WHO.  It's probably much more related to cultures.  The wife explains this that Germans are much more apt to following orders than the Romantic language countries.  Belgium did quite a bit worse, though their accounting could be different.  Denmark did better.

The UK did about the same as us despite being on an island.

WHO is irrelevant to these statistics in my view.
Hey, maybe it was the pod people
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 28, 2021, 04:04:51 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on May 28, 2021, 03:31:56 PM
Anyways, I feel pretty confident saying our response and statements about COVID were many times more incompetent and dishonest than anything the WHO did.
I feel confident that regardless of which of the two parties was sitting in the white house, the response and statements would have been very similar and wouldn't have had much different outcomes at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 28, 2021, 04:06:36 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 28, 2021, 04:04:51 PM
I feel confident that regardless of which of the two parties was sitting in the white house, the response and statements would have been very similar and wouldn't have had much different outcomes at all.
So if incompetence and corruption don't matter, why get mad at the WHO?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 28, 2021, 04:15:47 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on May 28, 2021, 04:06:36 PM
So if incompetence and corruption don't matter, why get mad at the WHO?
Incompetence at CDC, in the MSM for sure, and mostly at the state level in certain states.
and your right- incompetence is in charge now anyway.

If you can’t admit- like CBS news did yesterday- that China was intentionally negligent as was told to us long ago- then your too blind to see.

It’s ok Sam- the days where you get fired or canceled for pointing out what was obvious are behind us now on that topic.  It’s quite fashionable now in fact.  It won’t sway votes either way- so truth is ok. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 28, 2021, 04:31:07 PM

Quote
If you can’t admit- like CBS news did yesterday- that China was intentionally negligent as was told to us long ago- then your too blind to see.
Yes, but the WHO not the type of organization equipped to do anything about China's government
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 28, 2021, 04:32:30 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on May 28, 2021, 04:31:07 PM
Yes, but the WHO not the type of organization equipped to do anything about China's government

Agreed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 28, 2021, 04:45:41 PM
true, but the WHO could have raised a big red flag and told the world that the Chinese government wasn't cooperating with them to investigate the virus properly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 28, 2021, 06:42:07 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 28, 2021, 04:45:41 PM
true, but the WHO could have raised a big red flag and told the world that the Chinese government wasn't cooperating with them to investigate the virus properly.
Instead they sat meekly by while... yup... sniveling. 

:)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on May 28, 2021, 06:53:57 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 28, 2021, 06:42:07 PM
Instead they sat meekly by while... yup... sniveling.

:)

Maybe they could have sent the Doctors Without Borders after Xi Jinping
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 28, 2021, 07:17:46 PM
Quote from: utee94 on May 28, 2021, 06:42:07 PM
Instead they sat meekly by while... yup... sniveling.

:)
Old,bitter,drunken 94 just-a-stirrin' up the pot :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 29, 2021, 12:40:04 AM
Hey I wasn't drunk...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 29, 2021, 01:16:52 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 28, 2021, 03:52:55 PM
Germany did do better, other countries in Europe did about the same, or worse.

Germany sounds like part of the US and the "other countries in Europe" sound like the south.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 29, 2021, 06:29:50 AM
The states in the US that did worse are primary in the New England area, NY, NJ, MA, RI, then you have Mississippi for some reason, they have a high HH population, if we go by deaths per cap.

I think SOME of the NJ NY problem is their airports and Europe.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 29, 2021, 08:02:29 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 29, 2021, 01:16:52 AM
Germany sounds like part of the US and the "other countries in Europe" sound like the south.
And then there is data. 



(https://i.imgur.com/crKMM3t.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 29, 2021, 09:35:58 AM
New Evidence Shows Fauci May Have Been Created In Chinese Lab (https://www.theonion.com/new-evidence-shows-fauci-may-have-been-created-in-chine-1846984205?utm_campaign=later-linkinbio-theonion&utm_content=later-17582891&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkin.bio)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2021, 07:38:44 AM
'Lab Leak' Probe Welcomed But Many Scientists Still Believe It's A Natural Virus : Goats and Soda : NPR (https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/05/28/1001319014/many-scientists-still-think-the-coronavirus-came-from-nature)

The greater possibility it came from a lab doesn't mean it definitely did, or that it was modified by human actions (GoF).

we don't know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2021, 07:39:50 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 13, 2020, 06:11:44 AM
I hesitate to "believe" anything about this.  The latency period is very concerning, I think.  It is possible this is just something that becomes "routine" over time.  It may be seasonal (or not).  We may find in a couple weeks it was not as bad as feared.  Maybe we all contract it and develop immunity.  Maybe this. maybe that.

I remain cautious about conclusions over a year later.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 30, 2021, 09:43:42 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 30, 2021, 07:38:44 AM
'Lab Leak' Probe Welcomed But Many Scientists Still Believe It's A Natural Virus : Goats and Soda : NPR (https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/05/28/1001319014/many-scientists-still-think-the-coronavirus-came-from-nature)

The greater possibility it came from a lab doesn't mean it definitely did, or that it was modified by human actions (GoF).

we don't know.
there have been several scientists that state that the design of the virus point to it being man made

and so far we have not been able to find any virus in bats or any other animal from which this virus might have mutated
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 30, 2021, 01:37:36 PM
135,000 fans at Indy 500 not many masks

this should be interesting
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 31, 2021, 10:23:18 AM
Quote from: utee94 on April 02, 2020, 09:42:41 AM
Florida is likely to be a shitshow.  New York already is.

The nation as a whole, is doing better than the hot spots.

Take a look at California-- data seems pretty good there, compared to the population and population density.  I'd expect worse, and so far it's not happening.  That's a great sign.

Interesting to go backward in this thread. This is page 70.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2021, 10:32:04 AM
If Florida had  turned into  the worst state in the union, it would not have shocked me at all, many visitors, large airports, and of course a lot of elderly.

It's rather remarkable what didn't happen there.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 31, 2021, 10:33:29 AM
Yes, it is. Lots of lessons learned over the past 15 months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 31, 2021, 10:46:57 AM
it also seems many questions remain unanswered or just not agreed upon

if this happens in the future, it seems that we will be very divided again on shutdown/quarantine or stay open.

both sides of that answer seem to believe they are certainly correct
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2021, 10:55:00 AM
I don't think the best answer is all one or all the other.  Reasonable people can differ on where in the middle is optimal for specific areas.  I think we'd all agree in this case with isolation of elderly to the extent possible.

It seems to me our biggest hit was folks coming in from Europe in the NY/NJ area, which had the worst overall results.

Maybe if "next time", we can learn it's about to hit fast enough and understand something about WHAT is to hit, we can stop travel and isolate returning citizens for a bit and avoid the initial surge, but I have a hunch it will get out sooner or later.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 31, 2021, 11:05:43 AM
I'm not sure the world has learned much 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 31, 2021, 12:07:21 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 31, 2021, 11:05:43 AM
I'm not sure the world has learned much
Ive learned


Its never as good as scientists say it is

and

Its never as bad as the scientists say it is
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2021, 03:20:50 PM
Scientists speaks, usually, in a very nuanced form with a lot of hemming and hawwing.

This theory is consistent with the known evidence.  That means "We really don't know, but this might be right in part.  Or Not."

"The balance of opinions is X." That means "We really don't know but we sorta kinda think maybe X, on Tuesdays."

"The consensus opinion is Y".  That of course means "Ralph doesn't agree, but none of us like Ralph at all, so NYAH."

"Studies have demonstrated X."  = "Some studies published in the Outer Mongolian Journal of Irreproducible Results" show X. "

"It was surprisingly shown that K" = "It was pretty obvious that it was K, but we did the work anyway."

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 01, 2021, 10:51:41 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 31, 2021, 10:46:57 AM
it also seems many questions remain unanswered or just not agreed upon

if this happens in the future, it seems that we will be very divided again on shutdown/quarantine or stay open.

both sides of that answer seem to believe they are certainly correct
The states that mostly stayed open, would do so again.

What I wonder about, is what might happen in states and municipalities that instituted more strict shutdowns, and for an extended period of time.  When those people see the rest of the country mostly going about its business, are they going to be willing to abide by the same strict rules once again?  I have my doubts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 01, 2021, 10:59:19 AM
as has been discussed........ a more consistent message from leadership would be beneficial

I'm not convinced this will happen, but it could be much better than last year.

simple things such as the restrictions are only to flatten the curve and not overwhelm the hospitals, not to save every life and eradicate the virus.

wear a mask in appropriate settings, but know that the mask will not save you and the mask will not prevent the spread of the virus completely.  It will help.

perhaps with a less divisive character in the white house, the politicians and the press will be able to unify and work together next time.  I'm not too hopeful. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 01, 2021, 11:03:02 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 01, 2021, 10:59:19 AM
as has been discussed........ a more consistent message from leadership would be beneficial

I'm not convinced this will happen, but it could be much better than last year.

simple things such as the restrictions are only to flatten the curve and not overwhelm the hospitals, not to save every life and eradicate the virus.

wear a mask in appropriate settings, but know that the mask will not save you and the mask will not prevent the spread of the virus completely.  It will help.

perhaps with a less divisive character in the white house, the politicians and the press will be able to unify and work together next time.  I'm not too hopeful.
Maybe, but as you point out, the messaging needs to be a lot cleaner, and also less bullshitty.  I'm no epdimeologist, but I've had plenty of scientific training, and when my bullshit meter is going off with almost every statement from public health officials, I'm not going to listen to them for very long.  And that has nothing to do with who's in the white house.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 01, 2021, 12:45:14 PM
The issue with "divisive characters" in part is a portion of the population will immediately disbelieve anything they say, and vice versa.  Instead of considering the message, they consider ONLY the source.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 01, 2021, 01:01:23 PM
and as Utee points out, even those in public health w/o obvious political agendas did a very poor job communicating
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 01, 2021, 01:26:20 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 01, 2021, 01:01:23 PM
and as Utee points out, even those in public health w/o obvious political agendas did a very poor job communicating
considering we were succor punched I think we did a lot of things right and if there is a next time we will do more things right

it gets a little tiresome watching all the finger pointing 

Americans have had to overcome various kinds of crap since this country's founding and it has become a kind of tradition 







Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 01, 2021, 01:39:36 PM
The finger pointing is negative for sure, but any analysis of what who and how can be useful in the future.

Who did the best (so far) and why?  Sweden?  Germany?  Japan?  (Islands have an ad).  

Did New Jersey DO something heinous or was it just a result of being near all those airports?  I won't get into NY state.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 01, 2021, 02:38:51 PM
NJ did the same thing that NY did with the elderly. So did Michigan. I don't know the others.

Florida did very well, and half of the people who live here in the Winter came from the Midwest and Northeast. Who knows how many cases were brought with them.

Clearly we were all wrong early on about the Spring Break thing. Outdoors and warm was not and is not a danger.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 01, 2021, 02:40:43 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 01, 2021, 02:38:51 PM
NJ did the same thing that NY did with the elderly. So did Michigan. I don't know the others.

Florida did very well, and half of the people who live here in the Winter came from the Midwest and Northeast. Who knows how many cases were brought with them.

Clearly we were all wrong early on about the Spring Break thing. Outdoors and warm was not and is not a danger.

Yup, Spring Break specifically, and just the general high level of travel into and out of Florida, is why I made the comment I did back in April 2020 about expecting Florida to experience a large increase.  And I'm delighted to have been wrong about that.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 01, 2021, 02:45:20 PM
It would be nice to have a nonpartisan credible professional review of what did and did not work, to the extent anything worked.

Learn from mistakes, and successes.

Chance of that?  About the same as snow here today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 01, 2021, 02:58:20 PM
seems this national association would be interested..............

Founded in 1847, the American Medical Association (AMA) is the largest and only national association that convenes 190+ state and specialty medical societies and other critical stakeholders. Throughout history, the AMA has always followed its mission: to promote the art and science of medicine and the betterment of public health.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 01, 2021, 03:09:40 PM
That organization is not without its warts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 01, 2021, 03:29:04 PM
as most of them but,............. someone needs to pick up this ball and do a more than decent job with it.

perhaps, Association of American Medical Colleges or The American College of Physicians or The National Medical Association or the American Board of Medical Specialties

It obviously falls under the CDC, but we all know how politics interfere with that organization
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 01, 2021, 03:34:05 PM
AMA has one of the largest lobby budgets in the country.

No thanks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 01, 2021, 03:40:03 PM
maybe the association of physicians that drive mercedes?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 01, 2021, 04:07:08 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 01, 2021, 02:38:51 PM
NJ did the same thing that NY did with the elderly. So did Michigan. I don't know the others.

Florida did very well, and half of the people who live here in the Winter came from the Midwest and Northeast. Who knows how many cases were brought with them.

Clearly we were all wrong early on about the Spring Break thing. Outdoors and warm was not and is not a danger.
By the numbers, Florida did average... 19th-most cases/1M and 26th most deaths/1M. That's pretty much dead center nationally. 

People here (including me) have criticized California's handling of COVID, but California is better on both metrics than Florida. Would you also say California did "very well"? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 01, 2021, 04:31:20 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 01, 2021, 04:07:08 PM
By the numbers, Florida did average... 19th-most cases/1M and 26th most deaths/1M. That's pretty much dead center nationally.

People here (including me) have criticized California's handling of COVID, but California is better on both metrics than Florida. Would you also say California did "very well"?
Nope.

FL unemployment is at 4.8 percent.

CA unemployment is at 8.2 percent. 

FL median age of population is 42.4 y/o.

CA median age of population is 37.0 y/o.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 01, 2021, 04:52:40 PM
I'll wait for MDot to weigh in.......... ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 01, 2021, 04:58:07 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 01, 2021, 04:31:20 PM
Nope.

FL unemployment is at 4.8 percent.

CA unemployment is at 8.2 percent.

FL median age of population is 42.4 y/o.

CA median age of population is 37.0 y/o.

Yeah, the total health aspects are only part of the metrics.  Economic loss is another large part of it.  We knew from the beginning we'd have to strike a balance.  Well, some of us knew, anyway. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 01, 2021, 05:08:49 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 01, 2021, 04:31:20 PM
Nope.

FL unemployment is at 4.8 percent.

CA unemployment is at 8.2 percent.

FL median age of population is 42.4 y/o.

CA median age of population is 37.0 y/o.
That you have to explain this....

mind boggling.

I remember driving through the country to go to my annual golf outing last fall, and having to stop at roadblocks entering Florida( on the return drive) which were constructed to halt the influx of people from the north east and upper Midwest from entering the state because their Covid situation’s were so bad.

By any reasonable measure that considers @ balanced” approach, Florida, which has 4 major metro MSAs and an aging population- has done extremely well relative to others. 

The true evidence of this is the large daily influx of new residents, which began early during the pandemic and continues today at a clip estimated at 1000 to 1500 per day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 01, 2021, 05:56:02 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 01, 2021, 04:58:07 PM
Yeah, the total health aspects are only part of the metrics.  Economic loss is another large part of it.  We knew from the beginning we'd have to strike a balance.  Well, some of us knew, anyway.

Not too many people talk about the psychological issues with this thing. That is huge - especially for kids who were denied education for over a year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 01, 2021, 05:58:18 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 01, 2021, 05:08:49 PM
That you have to explain this....

I don't feel like I have to, but damn, just think about what this has done to the country. Also consider my post above.

Lots of antidepressant manufacturers have done really well this year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 01, 2021, 07:07:13 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 01, 2021, 05:58:18 PM
I don't feel like I have to, but damn, just think about what this has done to the country. Also consider my post above.

Lots of antidepressant manufacturers have done really well this year.
I meant- that you have to defend Florida.  

still see blindness here carrying over.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 01, 2021, 07:23:18 PM
Florida unemployment rate over time: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FLUR

California unemployment rate over time: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CAUR

Look pretty f'ing similar to me. Florida's unemployment was slightly lower to start with [for many reasons] and recovered slightly faster, but both faced MASSIVE spikes when COVID hit. California had 12% fewer cases/1M and 7% fewer deaths/1M, but both are kinda in the middle of the national averages overall. 


Seems like slight differences both ways.

I'm not attacking Florida, so not asking you to defend it. I don't think their response was bad. I also don't think it was a master stroke of governance. It was somewhere in the middle.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 01, 2021, 07:48:12 PM
I also don't think we have one state that was an example of a master stroke of governance.

I don't think there was or is a master stroke that can be considered correct
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Abba on June 02, 2021, 12:19:08 AM
I was mostly happy with how Ohio handled things.  Every decision was based on statistics available at the time.  Hospitals were never overwhelmed, and restrictions are officially over today.  I have a few gripes, such as curfews and masking requirements for outdoor parks etc. during surges, but pretty good overall.  

I also think the vaccine lottery was a good try to get people to get vaccinated.  It is laughable though that the cash value of entry into a lottery like that would be about $1, but it still helped get the numbers up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 02, 2021, 07:39:13 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 01, 2021, 07:23:18 PM
Florida unemployment rate over time: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FLUR

California unemployment rate over time: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CAUR

Look pretty f'ing similar to me. Florida's unemployment was slightly lower to start with [for many reasons] and recovered slightly faster, but both faced MASSIVE spikes when COVID hit. California had 12% fewer cases/1M and 7% fewer deaths/1M, but both are kinda in the middle of the national averages overall.


Seems like slight differences both ways.

I'm not attacking Florida, so not asking you to defend it. I don't think their response was bad. I also don't think it was a master stroke of governance. It was somewhere in the middle.

I know you aren't attacking FL. 

I guess we'll find out over time how each state really did, but I know FL's unemployment numbers are about to drop dramatically with the cruise industry returning and the theme parks heating up, among other things. I expect to see around 3% at the end of this year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 02, 2021, 07:54:26 AM
Texas and other states are also ending their participation in the additional Federal unemployment benefits, which should improve unemployment numbers as well.

I don't believe there's a huge percentage of the population that's not going back to work as a result of these extra benefits, but anecdotally, I do know of at least two restaurant servers who have remained on unemployment assistance despite having opportunities to work, simply because the state plus Federal unemployment benefits allowed them to be comfortable enough to not work.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 02, 2021, 09:10:23 AM
my county in Iowa reported zero new cases yesterday, the first time since February

They've decided to not report the statistics any longer

it's over
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on June 02, 2021, 09:26:17 AM
Mask mandates are gone today in Minneapolis and St Paul, as both have above 70% of residents having at least one dose.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 02, 2021, 09:57:03 AM
Fearless' dream is coming true!

https://www.stltoday.com/business/local/anheuser-busch-to-give-away-free-beer-when-us-hits-vaccination-goal/article_59496780-89e0-589c-908a-0731fdc7a867.html

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on June 03, 2021, 01:09:52 AM
We are still having 550 people die of COVID-19 per day nationally, which seems like a really high # to me.

That said, here in NE Iowa, the rural county I live in with a population just > 17,000 currently has no hospitalizations, a 14-day positivity rate of 1.8%, and no new cases today. The past week or so just 0-2 new cases per day. The rural county north of us had a new death reported, so it is not entirely over.

Our fully vaccinated rate in our rural county just went up to 50.4%. Dubuque County to our east has a 62.2% vaccination rate, and the county to our north has the lowest rate in our area of 47.7%

When experts last summer thought we could achieve herd immunity with 70% vaccinated, I think they were counting on vaccinations that were just 55-70% effective. No one thought then the vaccines would be > 90% effective, or as safe as they have turned out to be.

I bought carry-out tonight at the Chinese restaurant across the street from my office. I was surprised to walk in and for the first time since March 2020 there were diners inside; the family operating the restaurant was very cautious throughout the pandemic. When things closed down in March 2020 my neighbors went to visit extended family in Calif. for a few weeks, when they reopened to carryout in April there was a line around the block for carryout.  My neighbors have always had a large carryout business, despite a quality dining area.  I was so buoyed to see the support they had here, but then they have a good product.

Things are starting to brighten up, and are looking up here.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 03, 2021, 09:06:06 AM
Yeah, I almost never see a mask outside now.  Traffic is back with a vengeance.  Restaurants are operating much as before with some effort to space tables.  Many enlarged outside dining so their number of tables remained about the same even so.  We like dining outside anyway.

Things here are near normal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on June 03, 2021, 09:55:50 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 31, 2021, 03:20:50 PM
Scientists speaks, usually, in a very nuanced form with a lot of hemming and hawwing.




It’s always struck me as one of the more paradoxical social natures that the scientist, who’s tasked with carefully defining what’s provable and unprovable, speaks so cautiously to the point of unsureness, while on the other hand the people who speak with and rally the most confidence are those with nothing to stand on. The scientist almost always qualifies their talking points with “correct me if I’m wrong…” or “don’t quote me but…” Whereas those who let extremist politics or pseudo-cultish religion do their thinking for them are the ones most vocally certain of their rightness.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 03, 2021, 10:18:49 AM
It's part of the training in writing articles, I think.  Certainty is to be avoided, or at least couched and qualified.

This is suggestive that...

It appears that ...

The data are consistent with ...

This shows the possibility that ...

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 03, 2021, 10:34:08 AM
because it's certainly true

very few things are certain in this world

the intelligent folks realize this
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 03, 2021, 11:31:14 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on June 03, 2021, 09:55:50 AM

It’s always struck me as one of the more paradoxical social natures that the scientist, who’s tasked with carefully defining what’s provable and unprovable, speaks so cautiously to the point of unsureness, while on the other hand the people who speak with and rally the most confidence are those with nothing to stand on. The scientist almost always qualifies their talking points with “correct me if I’m wrong…” or “don’t quote me but…” Whereas those who let extremist politics or pseudo-cultish religion do their thinking for them are the ones most vocally certain of their rightness.
Typical Dunning-Kruger Effect. 

It's the typical thing when some random consumer asks a question "well why doesn't this giant company just do X, which would TOTALLY be easy and make them tons of money?!"

Well, it's usually not because that giant company is dumb and nobody thought of it. It's probably because there are very good reasons that it's either not easy, or wouldn't make them money, or both. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 03, 2021, 01:36:41 PM
What Did Fauci Tell Trump About Wuhan? - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-did-fauci-tell-trump-about-wuhan-11622668545?mod=e2fb&fbclid=IwAR2sSg5HWehygXg8-9SE1cduTBgt7lI_Msw_aUCRhLaxlzSAoggMrfFtdvA)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 03, 2021, 01:40:02 PM
I of course worked 32 years for a large company, at times on "new product development", getting into business areas we didn't currently occupy.  Alcohol was off the table, along with tobacco products.  We missed terribly the bottled water "fad".  We had one effort on socks, which now is kind of a fad, and another on bras, really, and athletic sportware, stuff that really worked not just fashion stuff.  We supposedly had tech on moving and trapping sweat, so it came from that.

I spent a few months on flea control, a huge need back in that era, but still a small market for that company.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 03, 2021, 03:44:18 PM
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/194297775_10226449382403735_214665959142451385_n.jpg?_nc_cat=1&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=LfP0bIHu-4AAX-ruO5I&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=a89c7a08a7cb8627f9fd12bd721ed768&oe=60DE1C51)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on June 03, 2021, 06:28:33 PM
For anyone who follows the case and death totals closely, this week the globally reported deaths total jumped from roughly 3.6M to 3.7M in one day. That's when I noticed Peru's death total upped to over 180k, moving Peru to 5th in terms of deaths. Noticeably, Peru's Deaths/1M rate soared to over 5k, by far the highest in the world:



(https://i.imgur.com/Q8TA6aN.png)

BBC: "The official death toll is now more than 180,000, up from 69,342, in a country of about 33 million people. Prime Minister Violeta Bermudez said the number was increased on the advice of Peruvian and international experts. This was in line with so-called excess deaths figures. Excess deaths are a measure of how many more people are dying than would be expected based on the previous few years. The official number of Covid deaths now stands at 180,764, a huge increase on the previous official figure of 69,342."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-57307861



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 04, 2021, 07:28:17 AM
the number was increased on the advice of Peruvian and international experts.



Oh really.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 04, 2021, 08:53:59 AM
If we have solid data on "excess deaths", it is reasonable to think they were nearly all COVID deaths.

I don't know if Peru has reliable figures, but they could.

I'd like to visit.  Not now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 04, 2021, 09:24:38 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on June 03, 2021, 06:28:33 PM
For anyone who follows the case and death totals closely, this week the globally reported deaths total jumped from roughly 3.6M to 3.7M in one day. That's when I noticed Peru's death total upped to over 180k, moving Peru to 5th in terms of deaths. Noticeably, Peru's Deaths/1M rate soared to over 5k, by far the highest in the world:

nothing to be proud of
but, follow the $$$$
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 05, 2021, 03:44:13 PM
The Leading Causes of Death in the US for 2020 | Cardiology | JAMA | JAMA Network (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2778234)


IF we assume this has about run its course, did it end up being better, worse, or about what you expected a year ago this time?

I'd say about as I expected, the death toll in the US climbed higher than forecast.  We had some sports, which I think helped.

We got vaccines in record time that appear to being arresting it.  Suicides did not go up, which perhaps is a bit of a surprise.  Most stuff is open and there is an air of normalcy here now.

It could have been worse, really, especially if some variant took hold that was more lethal.  (I know the trend usually is opposite that.)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 05, 2021, 03:53:05 PM
Worse. 

A little over a year ago, we were talking about 100-250K deaths as something pretty good. We're at over 600K. 

Remember, that was considered "best case" from the Imperial College of London report that was saying the US would have 2.2M deaths if we did nothing.

Everyone said that prediction was horrible, and completely wrong... But remember, they had three scenarios:



Note: the "over 2 years" is important. I think that study came out March or maybe early April 2020. 

Meaning we're a little over halfway through those two years, and with 600K deaths, we're a little over halfway to 1.1M... But we have the vaccine now [which wasn't contemplated in their analysis].

Sans-vaccine, does anyone doubt we would have ended up at least in the 1M range over the span of two years?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 05, 2021, 04:01:41 PM
Without the vaccine .... probably 2 million range.  At some point herd I would limit it.  I had not even contemplated that scenario.

I have a LOT of anti-vaxxers posting ignorant stuff on my FB page.  The irony is back when the candidate they supported was in charge, the vaccine program was the greatest thing since sliced bread.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 05, 2021, 04:50:30 PM
Without the vaccine, I don't think it would have been 2M within 2 years, although it might have hit there eventually given area under the curve. 

And honestly I don't know that it would have been 2M anyway.

I believe that was based on over 200M Americans getting the virus over that time, and thus slightly above 1% IFR. Based on estimates of unreported infections to confirmed cases, that seems to be a high assumption for IFR. I think it's probably a little above half that, maybe in the 0.5-0.6% range.

Maybe if all 330M residents of the United States got it, at an IFR close to 0.6%, you'd approach 2M, but herd immunity might stop the spread before everyone got it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 05, 2021, 06:34:09 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 05, 2021, 04:01:41 PM
Without the vaccine .... probably 2 million range.  At some point herd I would limit it.  I had not even contemplated that scenario.

I have a LOT of anti-vaxxers posting ignorant stuff on my FB page.  The irony is back when the candidate they supported was in charge, the vaccine program was the greatest thing since sliced bread.


The “ other” irony is the other candidate and most in his party- and their minions, spent lots of money and mouth power to cast doubt on the vaccine. Perhaps we need to give them some credit- especially given the fact that many major cities have special projects in place to get the folks living in the city to get vaccinated.  There is a large gap in those places with many not trusting it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 06, 2021, 10:22:48 AM
I didn't really know what to expect.

I certainly hoped it wouldn't turn out this bad.

It turned out worse than I expected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on June 08, 2021, 03:54:28 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 02, 2021, 09:10:23 AM
my county in Iowa reported zero new cases yesterday, the first time since February

They've decided to not report the statistics any longer

it's over


Isn't it nice to get to page 1000 of this thread and confidently declare Covid in America over? This past weekend I ran all around Southern California and Arizona and hardly anybody save for cashiers and a few waitresses were wearing masks. It's over.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 08, 2021, 04:11:29 PM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on June 08, 2021, 03:54:28 PM

Isn't it nice to get to page 1000 of this thread and confidently declare Covid in America over? This past weekend I ran all around Southern California and Arizona and hardly anybody save for cashiers and a few waitresses were wearing masks. It's over.
Where in SoCal? 

Here in Orange County, which hasn't exactly been a bastion of COVID compliance, and I have still seen pretty good masking. We're a week out from COVID restrictions statewide being lifted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2021, 09:29:50 AM
Florida has stopped reporting tracking data.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 09, 2021, 10:46:53 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2021, 09:29:50 AM
Florida has stopped reporting tracking data.
I wonder why

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 09, 2021, 10:48:41 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 09, 2021, 10:46:53 AM
I wonder why


They're hiding something, obviously.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 09, 2021, 10:49:58 AM
Quote from: utee94 on June 09, 2021, 10:48:41 AM
They're hiding something, obviously.
I dont think so but not sure the reason

Alabama is also not reporting
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2021, 10:51:45 AM
Positivity was below 2 percent on my last check.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2021, 10:52:29 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 09, 2021, 10:49:58 AM
I dont think so but not sure the reason

Alabama is also not reporting
Reallocation of resources.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 09, 2021, 10:53:34 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2021, 10:52:29 AM
Reallocation of resources.
maybe its a SEC thang
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 09, 2021, 10:55:00 AM
I hate to see this cause folks need continued reassurance that the vaccine is working
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 09, 2021, 11:22:07 AM
not been reporting in Iowa for a week or two

because the story isn't drawing interest

moving on to the next piece of dirty laundry
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 09, 2021, 11:37:48 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2021, 09:29:50 AM
Florida has stopped reporting tracking data.
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 09, 2021, 10:46:53 AM
I wonder why


Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2021, 10:52:29 AM
Reallocation of resources.
I doubt it. I'll bet they're still tracking the data. Just not reporting.

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 09, 2021, 10:55:00 AM
I hate to see this cause folks need continued reassurance that the vaccine is working
I'm partly in agreement there. 

I suspect that the states choosing not to report want to give the impression this thing is entirely over.

But I'd also suspect that anyone who hasn't gotten the vaccine yet isn't going to be swayed by falling numbers.

And as much as we want it to, the number isn't going to be "0" for a VERY long time. 

So I'm not sure any of it makes any difference at this point. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 09, 2021, 11:46:23 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 09, 2021, 11:37:48 AM
I doubt it. I'll bet they're still tracking the data. Just not reporting.
I'm partly in agreement there.

I suspect that the states choosing not to report want to give the impression this thing is entirely over.

But I'd also suspect that anyone who hasn't gotten the vaccine yet isn't going to be swayed by falling numbers.

And as much as we want it to, the number isn't going to be "0" for a VERY long time.

So I'm not sure any of it makes any difference at this point.
Yup agree with all of this.

At this point, anyone that is eligible for the vaccine and wants to get the vaccine, has either already gotten it, or has made arrangements to do so.

No one further will be swayed by falling numbers.  Nor will anyone further be swayed by climbing numbers. 

The final wave of vaccines will be kids that aren't yet eligible, and then we're done here, at least until a booster comes out.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 09, 2021, 11:58:42 AM
just remember this problem doesnt end with the US 

its a world wide problem

so I'd like to see the world as a whole improve before we declare that the problem is over
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 09, 2021, 12:29:37 PM
I'd like seeing more folks vaccinated, some of the stuff I catch on FB etc. if pretty awful, in my view.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 09, 2021, 12:31:27 PM
we could cut off international travel

at least ban incoming from the countries/areas with the most cases and least vaccine %
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 09, 2021, 12:32:56 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 09, 2021, 11:58:42 AM
just remember this problem doesnt end with the US

its a world wide problem

so I'd like to see the world as a whole improve before we declare that the problem is over

There are probably at least 2-3 billion people worldwide who will never get vaccinated.  They'll never have the access or the capability to get it.  If your criterion for declaring this over is "the whole world has to be vaccinated" then it's never going to happen.  Like, not even close.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 09, 2021, 12:42:02 PM
50% worldwise vaccinated might be achievable and enough  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2021, 01:02:38 PM
50% + natural immunity would probably nip it.

The majority of people I know who had Covid are not getting the Vax. They believe it's not needed, and there is a lot of scientific support for that position. 

Regardless, I chose to Vax because I want google to be board stiff watching me live my life.:57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2021, 01:06:48 PM
Also, I kinda misspoke earlier. FL is still reporting, but only weekly. Daily reporting was taking too much time and money.

The weekly looks like this:

(https://i.imgur.com/lvw8kKm.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 09, 2021, 03:05:53 PM
IBM’s U.S. employees will go back to the office the week of Sept. 7, according to a memo sent to staff this week from Chief Human Resources Officer Nickle LaMoreaux.

In the memo, which was viewed by CNBC, LaMoreaux said that IBM is working on protocols for fully vaccinated employees to work in the office without masks. In addition, LaMoreaux said IBM is working on health and safety protocols for business travel and meetings with clients from outside the company.

The memo didn’t specify whether or not employees will have the option to continue remote work either full or part time, but did say IBM has “long-established practices and policies supporting work life balance which will continue as we return to the office.”

The return to work plan only applies IBM’s employees in the U.S., where Covid-19 cases have dramatically fallen in recent months amid a massive vaccination drive across the country. IBM operates in 175 countries.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 09, 2021, 03:28:39 PM
The Financial vertical is already making large IT purchases in advance of return-to-work preparation.  High Tech makes sense as the next big one.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on June 09, 2021, 04:04:29 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 08, 2021, 04:11:29 PM
Where in SoCal?

Here in Orange County, which hasn't exactly been a bastion of COVID compliance, and I have still seen pretty good masking. We're a week out from COVID restrictions statewide being lifted.

San Diego & Imperial Counties CA + Maricopa Co AZ. Not a lot of masking, though it's more of a free for all in Arizona. The masses are finished living the Covid reality.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 09, 2021, 04:39:14 PM
I'm officially welcome back in my office as of 3 days ago. My boss doesn't care whether I'm there or not, though, as long as I handle my sh!t. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 09, 2021, 04:41:32 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 09, 2021, 04:39:14 PM
I'm officially welcome back in my office as of 3 days ago. My boss doesn't care whether I'm there or not, though, as long as I handle my sh!t.
We're not officially opening any time soon, and when we do, the vast majority of us won't be going back into the office.  They'll reconfigure for more team-oriented workspaces and conference rooms, and probably have some hotel cube options for when employee want/need a space back in the office.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2021, 04:47:07 PM
All 3 of my offices are open, and those who are 10 days past full vax do not have to wear a mask.

Of course, I'm not going. Too long of a commute.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 09, 2021, 04:50:44 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2021, 04:47:07 PM
All 3 of my offices are open, and those who are 10 days past full vax do not have to wear a mask.

Of course, I'm not going. Too long of a commute.
I was already working from home 90%+ anyway.  Really no change to my life, except now I'll actually get to go into the office on days when I choose, in order to see peers and stakeholders.  Meeting in-person is more valuable for building relationships, than is meeting via phone or video chat.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 09, 2021, 04:52:50 PM
been in my office as usual since the start, never required to wear a mask

was never tested or had my temp taken

business as usual like 5 years ago and like a year from now
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on June 09, 2021, 07:23:58 PM
Mentoring sucks ass in this environment.   I look forward to returning to some travel.  No doubt there will be less of that overall  .  My team is 4/5 remote all the time as is.  The internal relationship building is the biggest loss in all of this.   

I met one guy that reports to me since CV (we were sold in March 2020).  It was the most meaningful two hours spent since then on work related management.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on June 10, 2021, 02:10:07 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2021, 01:02:38 PM
50% + natural immunity would probably nip it.

The majority of people I know who had Covid are not getting the Vax. They believe it's not needed, and there is a lot of scientific support for that position.

Regardless, I chose to Vax because I want google to be board stiff watching me live my life.:57:
But, there is much more scientific support for a COVID survivor like me, plus the vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 11, 2021, 08:47:02 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/cmY92qW.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2021, 08:54:26 AM
I saw a study saying immunity from having had it is as good as the vaccine, which is counter to some earlier information.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 11, 2021, 09:01:25 AM
why take the chance, just roll up your sleeve

it's quick, easy and inexpensive
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 11, 2021, 09:02:56 AM
Cleveland Clinic released a study yesterday saying a vaccine is not needed for those who had it.

BUT

They went on to state that they recommend it regardless.

Study: No previously infected Cleveland Clinic employees who remained unvaccinated were reinfected (news5cleveland.com) (https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/continuing-coverage/coronavirus/vaccinating-ohio/study-no-previously-infected-cleveland-clinic-employees-who-remained-unvaccinated-were-reinfected)


I don't see any benefit to not getting the shots. There is nothing to lose either way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2021, 09:28:21 AM
My kid who had it went for the JNJ option, one and done.  That might be the right choice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on June 11, 2021, 11:18:07 AM
Both of my in-laws had COVID back in December, and they were both chomping at the bit to get vaccinated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 11, 2021, 12:56:01 PM
I read somewhere that they think the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) are the ones that are likely to be most effective against variants, just based on their nature.  The J&J one was expected to be less versatile.  

Of course, I'm not a doctor, virologist, or epidemiologist.  I just read that a while back and it made sense, intuitively.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 11, 2021, 12:57:11 PM
(https://external.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/safe_image.php?d=AQFllzzrsnel4JX_&w=500&h=261&url=https%3A%2F%2Fbloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com%2Fsiouxcityjournal.com%2Fcontent%2Ftncms%2Fassets%2Fv3%2Feditorial%2F6%2F72%2F6727842e-25e3-54f5-9d89-eb0522244401%2F60c28d7edc462.image.jpg%3Fcrop%3D749%252C421%252C0%252C7%26resize%3D749%252C421%26order%3Dcrop%252Cresize&cfs=1&ext=jpg&ccb=3-5&_nc_hash=AQFkIR975942Uhfi)

a county of roughly 100,000
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2021, 12:57:43 PM
Yeah, if they target that spike protein and that remains in variants, mRNA should work.

I think.  I'm not a viro guy dude either.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 11, 2021, 01:01:27 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 05, 2021, 03:44:13 PM
The Leading Causes of Death in the US for 2020 | Cardiology | JAMA | JAMA Network (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2778234)


IF we assume this has about run its course, did it end up being better, worse, or about what you expected a year ago this time?

I'd say about as I expected, the death toll in the US climbed higher than forecast.  We had some sports, which I think helped.

We got vaccines in record time that appear to being arresting it.  Suicides did not go up, which perhaps is a bit of a surprise.  Most stuff is open and there is an air of normalcy here now.

It could have been worse, really, especially if some variant took hold that was more lethal.  (I know the trend usually is opposite that.)


from your question back on the 5th........  I answered worse, but I didn't know what to expect

my question:: what about the national economy and your local economy?

my answer to that, the economy survived quite a bit better than I feared.  Certainly here in Iowa locally
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 11, 2021, 01:11:59 PM
It's tough for me to say how the economy fared here.  Many of my favorite restaurants closed permanently.  A handful of new ones opened.

Many of the movie theaters will end up closing permanently.  I don't know if any new ones will open up.

Many bars closed permanently.  I suspect they'll be replaced eventually.

But even when new businesses open, there's no way to quantify the extreme losses in life savings/life's work that were lost when the old ones closed permanently.  There's been a massive loss of wealth among small business owners over the past 15 months, and we won't know the full extent for years or decades even.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 11, 2021, 01:20:40 PM
small economy here

not too many places have closed permanently

some that stated they were closing permanently have reopened

none of my favorite places are closed today

very lucky
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 11, 2021, 01:31:20 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 11, 2021, 12:56:01 PM
I read somewhere that they think the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) are the ones that are likely to be most effective against variants, just based on their nature.  The J&J one was expected to be less versatile. 

Of course, I'm not a doctor, virologist, or epidemiologist.  I just read that a while back and it made sense, intuitively.
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 11, 2021, 12:57:43 PM
Yeah, if they target that spike protein and that remains in variants, mRNA should work.

I think.  I'm not a viro guy dude either. 
I thought that after the last year, we're all virologists and epidemiologists now?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 11, 2021, 01:40:20 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 11, 2021, 01:11:59 PM
It's tough for me to say how the economy fared here.  Many of my favorite restaurants closed permanently.  A handful of new ones opened.

Many of the movie theaters will end up closing permanently.  I don't know if any new ones will open up.

Many bars closed permanently.  I suspect they'll be replaced eventually.

But even when new businesses open, there's no way to quantify the extreme losses in life savings/life's work that were lost when the old ones closed permanently.  There's been a massive loss of wealth among small business owners over the past 15 months, and we won't know the full extent for years or decades even.


Nothing closed around here. But man, when I was up in the Chicago area last month... Lots of places are just flat gone.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 11, 2021, 01:41:31 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 11, 2021, 08:47:02 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/cmY92qW.png)
Two passengers from the United States who shared a room on board Celebrity Cruises' Celebrity Millennium ship, which was billed as only carrying fully vaccinated passengers and crew, have tested positive for COVID-19, the cruise line said in a statement.

The tests came back positive during end-of-cruise testing, which is completed 72 hours before returning to the U.S., Celebrity Cruises spokesperson Jonathon Fishman told USA TODAY.

All passengers were required to show proof of vaccination in addition to a negative COVID-19 test within a 72-hour period before the ship departed from the Caribbean island of St. Maarten Saturday.



https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2021/06/10/passengers-positive-covid-after-sailing-100-vaccinated-cruise/7645511002/ (https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2021/06/10/passengers-positive-covid-after-sailing-100-vaccinated-cruise/7645511002/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 11, 2021, 01:46:07 PM
Well, there certainly are fake cards out there. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2021, 01:49:30 PM
I've seen 4-5 restaurants closed permanently, none we liked.  One said they were closing anyway.  I think it took out the chaff.  A LOT of places have opened recently or will open soon, one Persian place was to open last spring and didn't and not says "opening soon", which makes the wife laugh.

Future Openings - Rumi’s Kitchen (rumiskitchen.com) (https://www.rumiskitchen.com/future)

Says it's opening this summer which would be nice.  

A new chicken place just opened called "Howlin".  It's "OK".

Howlin' Willy's Hot Chicken | Willy's Mexicana Grill (willys.com) (https://willys.com/howlin-willys-hot-chicken/)

The KFC place is great (Korean, called Mukja).

Our fav Italian place is moving and expanding into another older house.  

Pasta da Pulcinella (https://pastadapulcinella.com/#home-section)

Too many options really making it hard to drive further out and try new things.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2021, 10:47:16 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/kd892eC.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 13, 2021, 01:42:25 PM
We were out an about today, as usual, had brunch after a walk.  Life seems pretty normal out there now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 14, 2021, 08:48:38 AM
Novavax Says Its COVID Vaccine Is Extremely Effective : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2021/06/14/1006094476/novavax-says-its-covid-vaccine-is-extremely-effective-efficacy)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 14, 2021, 08:55:04 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 14, 2021, 08:48:38 AM
Novavax Says Its COVID Vaccine Is Extremely Effective : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2021/06/14/1006094476/novavax-says-its-covid-vaccine-is-extremely-effective-efficacy)
Does it have the same storage requirements?

One or two shots?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 14, 2021, 09:07:37 AM
What is the Novavax Covid vaccine storage temperature?
The potential new coronavirus vaccine only needs to be stored at fridge temperature like the AstraZeneca and Moderna vaccines.
This makes distribution and storage much easier than the Pfizer vaccine which needs to stay at -70 temperatures.


Two shots recommended.




Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 14, 2021, 09:24:54 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 14, 2021, 09:07:37 AM
What is the Novavax Covid vaccine storage temperature?
The potential new coronavirus vaccine only needs to be stored at fridge temperature like the AstraZeneca and Moderna vaccines.
This makes distribution and storage much easier than the Pfizer vaccine which needs to stay at -70 temperatures.


Two shots recommended.





I thought the Moderna vaccine had a low temp storage requirement also
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 14, 2021, 11:18:16 AM
Moderna can be stored in a regular fridge.

Store vaccine between 2°C and 8°C (36°F and 46°F) for up to 30 days. Do NOT refreeze thawed vaccine.Apr 5, 2021


 (https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/info-by-product/moderna/downloads/storage-summary.pdf)
Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine: Storage and Handling ... - CDC
 (https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/info-by-product/moderna/downloads/storage-summary.pdf)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 15, 2021, 03:47:59 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/ihyHXvf.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 15, 2021, 03:48:16 PM
Today is the day! CA restrictions lifted!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 15, 2021, 05:24:26 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 15, 2021, 03:48:16 PM
Today is the day! CA restrictions lifted!
what about the schools are they fully open
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 15, 2021, 05:27:04 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 15, 2021, 05:24:26 PM
what about the schools are they fully open
Nah, they're closed for the summer :57:

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on June 15, 2021, 05:28:22 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 15, 2021, 05:24:26 PM
what about the schools are they fully open
just you wait....they will let you know when they're ready.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 15, 2021, 05:41:31 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 15, 2021, 05:27:04 PM
Nah, they're closed for the summer :57:


really most schools around here operate year round
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 15, 2021, 06:14:57 PM
Truthfully I don't know what the plans are for schools... It's county-by-county. My kids have been doing in-person learning since last October. The two in the charter school had some interruptions, but those were school policy, not gov't restriction. 

Los Angeles County was different and I get the sense that the school board there wants distance learning forever. But even then it wasn't a decision mandated by Sacramento, it was local.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 15, 2021, 06:28:11 PM
A new analysis of blood samples from 24,000 Americans taken early last year is the largest study to suggest the coronavirus popped up in the U.S. in December 2019.

https://apnews.com/article/more-evidence-covid-in-US-by-Christmas-2019-11346afc5e18eee81ebcf35d9e6caee2 (https://apnews.com/article/more-evidence-covid-in-US-by-Christmas-2019-11346afc5e18eee81ebcf35d9e6caee2)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 15, 2021, 06:38:32 PM
It is so contagious, I'm somewhat dubious it could have been here 3 months earlier and not detected.  maybe.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 15, 2021, 06:39:35 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/H9JNvQ7.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 15, 2021, 06:53:02 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 15, 2021, 06:38:32 PM
It is so contagious, I'm somewhat dubious it could have been here 3 months earlier and not detected.  maybe.
Recall one of the studies that I posted way back last summer talking about the various known strains at the time. The original Wuhan strain was not believed to be as transmissible as what it mutated to in Europe, which was MUCH easier to transmit.

This would explain many things:


So I can see it plausible that we had a few very small pockets of infection popping up with the original Wuhan strain that was growing slowly enough to be "in the noise" and not high enough to have caught the attention of public health officials, particularly since the symptoms were so similar to influenza and it was basically right in the middle of flu season. 

Am I certain of any of that? No. But I can construct a very plausible explanation for why it may have been just starting to make its way to the US in December. 

Much earlier than that, and it's no longer plausible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 15, 2021, 06:55:09 PM
I like your theory.  May not be right, but it makes some sense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 15, 2021, 10:47:13 PM
Multiple teachers at Santee Community Schools have resigned because of a local mandate requiring them to get vaccinated for COVID-19 in time for the upcoming school year.

The district board of education earlier this month approved nine resignations, many of which were solely because of the mandate, said Superintendent Todd Chessmore.

The Santee Sioux Nation tribal council passed the guideline June 2, requiring all employees within the boundaries of the reservation to get fully vaccinated for COVID-19. The mandate officially goes into effect July 1.

Tara Meyer had been employed with the district for two years as a high school science teacher. As a South Dakota resident, she would drive about 110 miles round-trip every day for her job.


The tribal council previously passed a mandate in April that only required tribal employees to get vaccinated, but it was changed to all employees within the reservation on June 2.

The guideline comes after a history of increased COVID-19 restrictions within the reservation that were put in place to be proactive in curbing virus spread. The Santee Sioux Nation had implemented travel restrictions and road checkpoints in 2020 for anyone entering or leaving the reservation.

Chessmore said that despite staffing concerns, he is confident the district “will make sure to provide a quality education.”


https://beatricedailysun.com/news/state-and-regional/multiple-santee-teachers-resign-because-of-covid-vaccine-requirement/article_cca5b37b-3c99-56ba-917c-6a8893dcc5df.html (https://beatricedailysun.com/news/state-and-regional/multiple-santee-teachers-resign-because-of-covid-vaccine-requirement/article_cca5b37b-3c99-56ba-917c-6a8893dcc5df.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 16, 2021, 04:58:40 PM
Turns out the thing on my leg (don't worry, I won't post pictures) is in fact shingles, and not a bug bite. 

Anecdotally, my wife says that from her office's experience, there has been an uptick in outbreaks of people who experience cold sores and an increase in shingles outbreaks after the vaccine, possibly because of the stress it puts on the immune system.

For me, that's the second shingles outbreak I've had in under 3 years, so my PCP will give me a prescription for the shingles vaccine, even though it's typically not used until age 50. But you're not supposed to get the vaccine until 3 months after the COVID vaccine, so I've still got a bit. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 16, 2021, 05:26:39 PM
I know two people in my personal circle that have had mild shingles outbreaks within a couple months of getting the vaccine.  May or may not be related, but sounds like your doc thinks it might be.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 16, 2021, 07:34:06 PM
I hope not, I did have both Shingrix vaccines.  I had a reaction the number 2.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 23, 2021, 11:11:43 PM
man he was the GOAT at this. Daily Show was like my go-to, now it's just god awful. why'd he have to leave? he's so effortlessly funny, it's scary.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSfejgwbDQ8


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtTvXZ5lby8

side note: how did Colbert go from having one of the greatest comedy shows ever with the Colbert Report to being a hack with a shit show in record time? He should've never went to hosting a lame talk show- when he had one of the funniest comedy shows of all-time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 24, 2021, 12:03:29 PM
This would be interesting to know.

Rep. Gallagher calls for probe into 2019 Wuhan Military Games and athletes who got sick | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/media/wuhan-military-games-china-athletes-covid-sick-gallagher)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 24, 2021, 09:17:38 PM
Nearly all COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. now are in people who weren’t vaccinated, a staggering demonstration of how effective the shots have been and an indication that deaths per day — now down to under 300 — could be practically zero if everyone eligible got the vaccine.

An Associated Press analysis of available government data from May shows that “breakthrough” infections in fully vaccinated people accounted for fewer than 1,200 of more than 853,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations. That’s about 0.1%.

And only about 150 of the more than 18,000 COVID-19 deaths in May were in fully vaccinated people. That translates to about 0.8%, or five deaths per day on average.


https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2021-06-24/nearly-all-covid-deaths-in-us-are-now-among-unvaccinated (https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2021-06-24/nearly-all-covid-deaths-in-us-are-now-among-unvaccinated)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 25, 2021, 09:46:15 AM
It would be interesting to know more about the 150 vaccinated folks who died with COVID.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 25, 2021, 09:57:37 AM
yup, but probably not a pretty story

might be gunshot wounds and motorcycle accidents
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 25, 2021, 09:59:49 AM
I was hopeful that at minimum being vaccinated would mean you would not get a serious case if you contracted it.  Perhaps these folks were nearly all past 80, or morbidly obese, etc.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 25, 2021, 10:02:12 AM
that would be my guess, it least a very high percentage of the 150 - maybe 90%

if trying to encourage the vaccine, they should give this important info
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on June 25, 2021, 10:34:10 AM
Cases back on the rise across the UK thanks to the Delta Variant – from the BBC:

"A total of 75,953 cases of Delta were sequenced in the UK up to 16 June, up from 42,323 the previous week. Experts believe a major factor is the number of cases that were introduced into the UK in a short space of time, because of the volume of travel."

…

"Public Health England figures show the variant was introduced at least 500 times by travelers. The government placed India on the red list - meaning people returning would face mandatory hotel quarantine - on 23 April."

…

"This was after the World Health Organization had classified Delta as a "variant of interest" and after it was known to be in the UK, but before it had been designated as a "variant of concern" by the UK health authorities."

…

"And while it was not immediately clear which of several variants was causing problems in India, it was becoming increasingly clear the country was experiencing a devastating toll from the virus."

BBC’s article toes around the direct questions, namely, why doesn’t/didn’t the UK suspend all direct flights to/from India? And why (if you read the whole article linked below) doesn’t the article make plain as to why the Delta variant is taking off in the UK well before the rest of continental Europe? The BBC won’t point out that London has Europe’s most (by far) direct flights to/from India, where the Delta Variant is still peaking?


https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57489740


(https://i.imgur.com/8oWpzJ3.png)


(https://i.imgur.com/WLdFLeS.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 25, 2021, 10:34:27 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 25, 2021, 10:02:12 AM
that would be my guess, it least a very high percentage of the 150 - maybe 90%

if trying to encourage the vaccine, they should give this important info
In my mind its more important to know more about folks who died from the vaccine after not getting the virus
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 25, 2021, 10:35:25 AM
that would be good, I'd guess less than 150, but no data
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 25, 2021, 10:36:33 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 25, 2021, 10:35:25 AM
that would be good, I'd guess less than 150, but no data
last I saw it was in the thousands
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 25, 2021, 11:23:07 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 25, 2021, 10:36:33 AM
last I saw it was in the thousands
The number I saw that was in the thousands, was the number of COVID deaths that had occurred despite being fully vaccinated.  Something like 1500 out of 84,000,000 at the time, which is 0.0017%.

I don't recall seeing any number that represented number of deaths attributed directly to the vaccine, without catching COVID at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 25, 2021, 11:44:46 AM
Quote from: utee94 on June 25, 2021, 11:23:07 AM
The number I saw that was in the thousands, was the number of COVID deaths that had occurred despite being fully vaccinated.  Something like 1500 out of 84,000,000 at the time, which is 0.0017%.

I don't recall seeing any number that represented number of deaths attributed directly to the vaccine, without catching COVID at all.
I really dont think this is a surprise and Im not saying we should not get vaccinated

however there is currently a debate about vaccinating folks under 18
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 25, 2021, 12:45:17 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 25, 2021, 11:44:46 AM
I really dont think this is a surprise and Im not saying we should not get vaccinated

however there is currently a debate about vaccinating folks under 18
Yup, especially males under 18.  Even, under 25, actually.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 25, 2021, 01:13:14 PM
My son had his second last week. No side effects beyond sore arm and light fatigue. So that's good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 25, 2021, 01:13:41 PM
What percentage of the population is currently vaccinated in the UK? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 25, 2021, 01:26:17 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 25, 2021, 01:13:41 PM
What percentage of the population is currently vaccinated in the UK?
47.9% as of 6/22

(https://i.imgur.com/URIbHg5.png)


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 25, 2021, 01:38:50 PM
I don't know how one could know how many "died from the vaccine" without a comparable study of how many not vaccinated in a control group with similar populations who died.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 25, 2021, 01:51:21 PM
This is long, interesting read.

Opinion | Where Did the Coronavirus Come From? What We Already Know Is Troubling. - The New York Times (nytimes.com) (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/25/opinion/coronavirus-lab.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 25, 2021, 02:17:59 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 25, 2021, 01:38:50 PM
I don't know how one could know how many "died from the vaccine" without a comparable study of how many not vaccinated in a control group with similar populations who died.
Other than a vaccinated individual suffering an immediate, violent, deadly reaction within minutes of receiving the vaccine, I agree.

I have no idea if that has ever happened.  It seems unlikely but I suppose is still possible.  It would maybe come across like those sudden auto-immune reactions that occur in super-rare cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 26, 2021, 12:40:09 PM
Looks like the vaccines are pretty good against this new Delta variant, which seems to be extremely highly transmissible...

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/06/25/1007843591/coronavirus-faq-ive-been-vaccinated-do-i-need-to-worry-about-variants
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on June 28, 2021, 01:11:50 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 26, 2021, 12:40:09 PM
Looks like the vaccines are pretty good against this new Delta variant, which seems to be extremely highly transmissible...

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/06/25/1007843591/coronavirus-faq-ive-been-vaccinated-do-i-need-to-worry-about-variants
I think you are right but in Israel, whose population is highly vaccinated by global standards > 60%, and with a population of over 9 million, has seen an uptick in new daily infection that has gone from about 10 per day to 200, and about one-half of the infected persons are vaccinated. The overwhelming percentage of Israel's vaccinated population received Moderna and Pfizer. Delta Variant Outbreak in Israel Infects Some Vaccinated Adults - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/vaccinated-people-account-for-half-of-new-covid-19-delta-cases-in-israeli-outbreak-11624624326) 

So it is not over, yet. As we go indoors in the colder months, masks will probably make a comeback amongst the cautious, and amongst the vulnerable, because of the risk posed by variant, and fewer colds, less flu, less COVID-19.

In the meantime, I am going to enjoy this summer, and hope we don't get Portland's weather in Iowa.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 28, 2021, 07:34:38 AM
Last foreign scientist to work at Wuhan lab: 'What people are saying is just not how it is' | TheHill (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/public-global-health/560477-last-foreign-scientist-to-work-at-wuhan-lab-what)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on June 28, 2021, 08:45:33 AM
Not sure if this belongs in this thread or the 2021 season thread, but an interesting data point. Recall how last spring we were all concerned/interested to see what enrollment numbers would do based on the whole COVID situation?

Well, the U of M is expecting a big incoming frosh class in the fall.

Star Tribune (https://www.startribune.com/university-of-minnesota-expecting-big-fall-enrollment-rebound/600068168/)


Quote
The University of Minnesota's incoming freshman class is on track to be its largest in decades and its most diverse in history, suggesting the state's flagship institution will see a big enrollment rebound this fall as it returns to mostly normal operations.

Freshman confirmations are up 14% at the Twin Cities campus, with nearly 7,500 new students committed to attend compared with just 6,500 at this time last year. Systemwide, freshman confirmations are up 12% across the U's five campuses.



For comparison's sake, my incoming class from fall 2002 was around 5,000.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 28, 2021, 09:32:12 AM
2002?  you're getting old
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 28, 2021, 09:36:01 AM
College-aged kids of several of my friends took an off-year last year, and one of them deferred enrollment.  

I sure as heck wouldn't pay in-person college tuition for my child to attend via Zoom.  And I have no idea how they did any of the engineering labs when they were 100% online, it's completely impossible to gain anywhere close to the proper learning in that environment.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 28, 2021, 10:27:37 AM
SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines induce persistent human germinal centre responses | Nature (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03738-2)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 28, 2021, 12:14:18 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 28, 2021, 09:36:01 AM
College-aged kids of several of my friends took an off-year last year, and one of them deferred enrollment. 

I sure as heck wouldn't pay in-person college tuition for my child to attend via Zoom.  And I have no idea how they did any of the engineering labs when they were 100% online, it's completely impossible to gain anywhere close to the proper learning in that environment.


thats why enrollment is higher then normal

its a "catchup" year
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 28, 2021, 12:45:27 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 28, 2021, 12:14:18 PM
thats why enrollment is higher then normal

its a "catchup" year

Exactly my point :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on June 28, 2021, 12:59:19 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 28, 2021, 12:14:18 PM
thats why enrollment is higher then normal

its a "catchup" year
(https://dam.kraftheinzcompany.com/adaptivemedia/rendition/00013000006408_A1R1.JPG?id=487016edc8e2fcd114f19073a4d9a738831104f6&ht=2400&wd=2400&version=2&clid=pim)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 28, 2021, 01:23:32 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on June 28, 2021, 12:59:19 PM
(https://dam.kraftheinzcompany.com/adaptivemedia/rendition/00013000006408_A1R1.JPG?id=487016edc8e2fcd114f19073a4d9a738831104f6&ht=2400&wd=2400&version=2&clid=pim)
I was Hunting for that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 28, 2021, 01:27:14 PM
My son is getting his first vaccination shot tonight and has asked me what kind of side effects he could have and do folks have most of their problems after the 1st shot or the 2nd


could you folks respond with your personal experience in this area thanks


ps Ive not been vaccinated yet
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 28, 2021, 01:31:17 PM
1) Go get vaccinated.  Please.

2) Side effect for me on Moderna Shot #1 was a sore arm days 2 and 3, and a little fatigue.  Side effect on shot #2 was a sore arm on days 2 and 3, and that was it.  Other people have felt flu-like for a day or so, usually after the second one, if they never had COVID before.

3) Good luck to your son, he'll be fine, nothing to it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 28, 2021, 01:43:26 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 28, 2021, 01:31:17 PM
1) Go get vaccinated.  Please.

2) Side effect for me on Moderna Shot #1 was a sore arm days 2 and 3, and a little fatigue.  Side effect on shot #2 was a sore arm on days 2 and 3, and that was it.  Other people have felt flu-like for a day or so, usually after the second one, if they never had COVID before.

3) Good luck to your son, he'll be fine, nothing to it.
thanks utee
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 28, 2021, 01:45:50 PM
No issues at all for me. Felt a little woozy day 2 after shot 1, but that's probably because I had immunity already from having it.

Go for it. Nothing to wait for now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 28, 2021, 02:02:48 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 28, 2021, 01:27:14 PM
My son is getting his first vaccination shot tonight and has asked me what kind of side effects he could have and do folks have most of their problems after the 1st shot or the 2nd


could you folks respond with your personal experience in this area thanks


ps Ive not been vaccinated yet
Moderna for me. Both cases were ~4:30 on a Saturday afternoon. 

1st shot: slightly sore arm the next day / 36 hrs. Not enough to keep me off the driving range.

2nd shot: the day after the shot I started running a fever before lunch, took some ibuprofen, felt better. Around 5 PM the fever kicked in HARD and reached a high of 101.6 even with ibuprofen, and stuck with me for about 4 hours where I was laid out on the couch useless. I was fine the next morning. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 28, 2021, 02:03:51 PM
And agree with 94, 320... Go get vaccinated. 

The delta variant is well on its way to becoming the dominant strain here in the US and is VERY transmissible. The risk of side effects from the vaccine are FAR lower than the risks of the side effects of COVID. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 28, 2021, 02:09:46 PM
thanks guys
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 28, 2021, 04:33:31 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 28, 2021, 02:02:48 PM
2nd shot: the day after the shot I started running a fever before lunch, took some ibuprofen, felt better. Around 5 PM the fever kicked in HARD and reached a high of 101.6 even with ibuprofen, and stuck with me for about 4 hours where I was laid out on the couch useless. I was fine the next morning.
That is a decently severe reaction, I think.  Glad it was short term, I just was tired.

I had a reaction to the shingles vaccine number 2, was lying in bed shivering uncontrollably.  I put a pencil in my mouth to protect my teeth.  The wife got me acetominiphin and it passed quickly.

Never had anything like that before.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 28, 2021, 07:09:29 PM
you and your son, roll up the sleeve

my arm was a bit sore.  Couldn't tell from normal pain of bad shoulders

I felt a bit hungover one morning, but that was probably the budweiser
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on June 28, 2021, 07:37:08 PM
Quote from: utee94 on June 28, 2021, 09:36:01 AM
College-aged kids of several of my friends took an off-year last year, and one of them deferred enrollment. 

I sure as heck wouldn't pay in-person college tuition for my child to attend via Zoom.  And I have no idea how they did any of the engineering labs when they were 100% online, it's completely impossible to gain anywhere close to the proper learning in that environment.
My daughter in grad school was so thankful she got to walk across the stage for her graduation in May 2021 after last year's class didn't (last year's class was invited back to walk this year, but so many were all over the U.S. and didn't come back). 
My daughter was in a Physical Therapy program at Clarke University that started out with approximately 35 students and two or three didn't make, it. Fortunately for the university, they received 3-years of tuition from the two that made it to their last semester, and then were cut. That was $105,000 of tuition, not to mention other fees. Youch !!! - for those who didn't make it!
It was difficult at times to find hands on experience, but they did work through it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on June 28, 2021, 07:43:22 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 28, 2021, 01:27:14 PM
My son is getting his first vaccination shot tonight and has asked me what kind of side effects he could have and do folks have most of their problems after the 1st shot or the 2nd


could you folks respond with your personal experience in this area thanks


ps Ive not been vaccinated yet
The only symptom from the vaccine I had was a sore arm for about 12 hours, that only started 12-hours after I received the vaccine. My wife was fatigued the next day and had a sore arm. I have known one person who fainted, so be sure to sit down in the chair provided for 15-minutes. Be alert! Do not fall out of the chair! If you start to feel groggy say something before you fall.
For me, and almost everyone else, it is a piece of cake. Remember this: 99% of the people who died last month from COVID-19 were unvaccinated. Vaccination is wise. 99% of people who died of COVID-19 in the U.S. last month were unvaccinated - silive.com (https://www.silive.com/nation/2021/06/99-of-people-who-died-of-covid-19-in-the-us-last-month-were-unvaccinated.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 28, 2021, 07:47:58 PM
Quote from: Hawkinole on June 28, 2021, 07:37:08 PM
My daughter in grad school was so thankful she got to walk across the stage for her graduation in May 2021 after last year's class didn't (last year's class was invited back to walk this year, but so many were all over the U.S. and didn't come back).
My daughter was in a Physical Therapy program at Clarke University that started out with approximately 35 students and two or three didn't make, it. Fortunately for the university, they received 3-years of tuition from the two that made it to their last semester, and then were cut. That was $105,000 of tuition, not to mention other fees. Youch !!! - for those who didn't make it!
It was difficult at times to find hands on experience, but they did work through it.

Yup my wife is a PT.  Her clinic shut down for about 6 weeks in March/April of last year while everyone was trying to figure out how bad this pandemic might be, but then they went back face-to-face for 8 hours per day 5 days per week from then, on.  They had a couple of students doing rotations in their clinic and they came back, as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on June 28, 2021, 08:46:03 PM
My wife and I are members of House Moderna. Both shots administered ~9 AM. Shot #1 we both had sore arms from dinnertime that night for the next ~2 days. Shot #2 we felt fine the day of, but felt really hung over the next day. Cleared up by the second day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 28, 2021, 09:17:13 PM
my son has decided to delay his first shot until this Friday just in case he needs the weekend to get over it

he just started a new job and doesnt want to miss any work

He called the local kroger and they said no appointment needed just come in 7 am to 7 pm

and it would take 10 minutes
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 28, 2021, 09:46:47 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 28, 2021, 09:17:13 PM
my son has decided to delay his first shot until this Friday just in case he needs the weekend to get over it

he just started a new job and doesnt want to miss any work

He called the local kroger and they said no appointment needed just come in 7 am to 7 pm

and it would take 10 minutes
That's a sensible choice for him.

And yes, pharmacies have plenty of availability now.  Y'all should go together.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on June 29, 2021, 01:51:33 AM
Quote from: utee94 on June 28, 2021, 07:47:58 PM
Yup my wife is a PT.  Her clinic shut down for about 6 weeks in March/April of last year while everyone was trying to figure out how bad this pandemic might be, but then they went back face-to-face for 8 hours per day 5 days per week from then, on.  They had a couple of students doing rotations in their clinic and they came back, as well.

Interesting. Did any staff / students test + ?
At my daughter's clinical internship in Tucson in January/February 2021, she received an early vaccination late January and fully in February. It was a hospital setting which had COVID PT patients, but she did not knowingly administer to them. She recounted she was helping someone not in the COVID unit, and she had an N-95 mask, as did her instructor, but my daughter was on the front end, and instructor behind the patient. The patient later tested + for COVID-19. My daughter didn't get it, but her clinical instructor had a break-through infection. The clinical instructor also administered to patients in the COVID unit wearing more PPE.
I think my daughter, as likely as not, contracted the virus in Dubuque before her clinical in Tucson. She was working her way through college at a large convenience store in Dubuque, contact with many customers, and it spread like wildfire amongst co-workers; some of her classmates also had it, and she was exposed in close quarters. I encouraged her to test, but she refused because if she tested - even if negative - the school would not let her in for two weeks. Crazy policy.
Forty percent of positives are estimated to be asymptomatic - I had it - I am no spring chicken - I was asymptomatic. Our 90-year old former neighbor contracted it in the nursing home and we were so worried, and went to her window, and she was asymptomatic, while we saw someone in a neighboring window to our right having trouble breathing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 29, 2021, 01:57:39 AM
No staff or patients or students got it or transmitted it at my wife's clinic, as far as we know.  All staff and patients were required to wear masks-- but especially early on, those were mostly cloth masks and we all know those serve only to stop spit droplets, but wouldn't stop the virus in normal respiration.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 29, 2021, 11:37:26 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/qzTXgRP.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on June 29, 2021, 11:52:22 AM
Quote from: utee94 on June 29, 2021, 01:57:39 AM
No staff or patients or students got it or transmitted it at my wife's clinic, as far as we know.  All staff and patients were required to wear masks-- but especially early on, those were mostly cloth masks and we all know those serve only to stop spit droplets, but wouldn't stop the virus in normal respiration.

My MIL is also a PT, and she got COVID from her workplace back in December, masks and all. She was surprised that it took as long as it did for her to get it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 29, 2021, 12:35:37 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on June 29, 2021, 11:52:22 AM
My MIL is also a PT, and she got COVID from her workplace back in December, masks and all. She was surprised that it took as long as it did for her to get it.
I suppose it's possible she or others at her clinic got it and were asymptomatic.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 29, 2021, 01:15:32 PM
The wife and I did about 3 months of PT after our shoulder surgeries late 2020.  The therapist said they had had no cases reported.

The wife said the Delta variant is starting to jump up in France now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 29, 2021, 01:33:07 PM
Apparently the delta variant has been seen in Long Beach, and they're recommending masks indoors for everyone.

One of the doctors at my wife's office says she thinks this is going to lead to lockdowns. 

I'm not sure I buy it. Everything I've found publicly says that there is slightly more risk of breakthrough infection with delta for vaccinated individuals, but not that there is a corresponding much higher risk of hospitalization/death if you're vaccinated. 

I don't think anyone in this country is going to accept a "precautionary" lockdown, but if cases and deaths spike hard within vaccinated individuals that might change.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 29, 2021, 01:55:04 PM
It is now the most prevalent variant in Florida.

(https://i.imgur.com/YUeO7Kh.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 29, 2021, 02:21:41 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 29, 2021, 01:33:07 PM
Apparently the delta variant has been seen in Long Beach, and they're recommending masks indoors for everyone.

One of the doctors at my wife's office says she thinks this is going to lead to lockdowns.

I'm not sure I buy it. Everything I've found publicly says that there is slightly more risk of breakthrough infection with delta for vaccinated individuals, but not that there is a corresponding much higher risk of hospitalization/death if you're vaccinated.

I don't think anyone in this country is going to accept a "precautionary" lockdown, but if cases and deaths spike hard within vaccinated individuals that might change.

Yeah, precautionary lockdowns and even forced distancing and/or mask ordinances are going to get laughed at and ignored by the majority.

And cases are not an acceptable measure either.

If hospitalizations/ICU/death begin increasing within the VACCINATED population, then and only then would anyone bother listening.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 29, 2021, 02:30:22 PM
MOSCOW — Russian health officials have approved booster shots for those vaccinated against COVID-19 six months after their first dose.

On Tuesday, 20,616 new infections were registered and 652 deaths — the highest daily death toll in the pandemic.

Russia’s health minister Mikhail Murashko told a government meeting Tuesday the ministry has updated its vaccination guidelines. It allows those who contracted the coronavirus to get vaccinated six months after they recovered and those who have been immunized to get booster shots six months after their first vaccination.

Russia’s state coronavirus task force has been reporting more than 20,000 new infections daily since last Thursday, more than double the average in early June.


https://apnews.com/article/russia-europe-middle-east-lifestyle-travel-406871e27cca483519cce7240b3165ee (https://apnews.com/article/russia-europe-middle-east-lifestyle-travel-406871e27cca483519cce7240b3165ee)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on June 30, 2021, 02:50:37 AM
Doesn't Russia, which is using vaccine diplomacy, have a domestic vaccination rate that is low?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2021, 08:37:47 AM
Wuhan lab researcher linked to military scientists, NBC News finds (https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/wuhan-lab-researcher-linked-to-military-scientists-nbc-news-finds-115706437674)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 30, 2021, 09:17:20 AM
Russia registered the first Covid vaccine. Now it's struggling to vaccinate its population. (nbcnews.com) (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-registered-first-covid-vaccine-now-it-s-struggling-vaccinate-n1272092)

14% vaccinated,  I'm not sure I'd take that one anyway.  Would be a tough choice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 30, 2021, 03:25:54 PM
With the Delta variant accounting for more than a quarter of Covid-19 cases, there could soon be "two Americas" -- one where most people are vaccinated and another where low vaccination rates could lead to case spikes, Dr. Anthony Fauci warned.

The stark disparity between places with low and high vaccination rates is something Fauci is "very concerned about," he told CNN on Tuesday.


https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/30/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/30/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html)

"When you have such a low level of vaccination superimposed upon a variant that has a high degree of efficiency of spread, what you are going to see among undervaccinated regions -- be that states, cities or counties -- you're going to see these individual types of blips," he said. "It's almost like it's going to be two Americas."

But spikes in coronavirus cases are "entirely avoidable, entirely preventable" with vaccination, said Fauci, who heads the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 30, 2021, 05:48:35 PM
Chinese whistleblower exposes COVID-19's origins on 'Tucker Carlson Today' | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/media/chinese-whistleblower-covid-19-origins-on-fox-nations-tucker-carlson-wuhan-lab)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 30, 2021, 11:15:14 PM
Tucker is credible 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 05, 2021, 08:38:14 AM
I personally view Carlson as an entertainer, not a credible source of information.  I see his videos pushed on FB at times and have watched a few.

This "whistle blower" doesn't add anything new and substantive, just her opinions.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 05, 2021, 09:17:55 AM
sarcasm from me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 05, 2021, 09:23:12 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 05, 2021, 08:38:14 AM

This "whistle blower" doesn't add anything new and substantive, just her opinions.




That's your opinion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on July 05, 2021, 09:26:42 AM
Well they want your e-mail to continue reading but I see CDs point as this was in their also


PHYSICIST TO TUCKER CARLSON: CLIMATE CHANGE IS ‘FICTION OF THE MEDIA’
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 05, 2021, 09:31:28 AM
I know it's tough to contrive a new show every weekday night.  Anyone would have to "cut corners" at times.  You have staff of course on the look out for any tidbits that can entertain your known audience and play to their fears and expectations.

It's probably difficult to just fill an hour with "real news", if there is such a thing today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 05, 2021, 10:00:48 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 05, 2021, 08:38:14 AM
I personally view Carlson as an entertainer, not a credible source of information.  I see his videos pushed on FB at times and have watched a few.

Yeah I view him kind of like Jon Stewart but for the other team.

However, I do know a fair amount of people that got their "news" from The Daily Show, and believed every word of it,so there you have it...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 05, 2021, 10:21:39 AM
I know folks who get "news" from Facebook memes and other posts.

Yes, folks get their news from whatever "source" aligns with their beliefs.

Magazines like Athlon will put regional covers on their reviews to sell more as they feature a good team with a large support base.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 05, 2021, 10:28:44 AM
Yeah, Facebook memes as news is another fun one.



(https://i.imgur.com/JCUDK5i.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 05, 2021, 10:33:25 AM
The "best" cleanest news I have found is on the various business channels.  Their audience, in general, doesn't have time for burfle.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 05, 2021, 10:35:00 AM
wrong thread
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 05, 2021, 03:46:32 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 05, 2021, 10:35:00 AM
wrong thread

(https://i.imgur.com/Ra5i0NU.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 05, 2021, 03:55:35 PM
what does an OU fan have to do with anything
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 07, 2021, 05:19:34 AM
Interesting. This should be done for the entire US.

Santa Clara County’s COVID-19 death toll drops by 22% after review | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/health/santa-clara-countys-covid-19-death-toll-drops-by-22-after-review)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 08, 2021, 10:23:23 AM
New cases ticking up here, but still moving along at a slower clip on the vaccines. 58% of the population has had it. 11% of the population has had Covid.

(https://i.imgur.com/qycHjzt.png)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 08, 2021, 11:25:16 AM
Cases are irrelevant now.  Vaccinated people can still breathe in the virus, still produce an immune response, and still test positive for it, even though they don't get sick and are highly unlikely to spread it. 

Now, the only meaningful metrics, are hospitalizations/ICU/deaths.

On that note, here in my county, hospitalization admits are rising slightly.  That's what is worrisome.  Unfortunately they don't publish data on what% of those people are vaccinated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 11:37:26 AM
Quote from: utee94 on July 08, 2021, 11:25:16 AM
Cases are irrelevant now.  Vaccinated people can still breathe in the virus, still produce an immune response, and still test positive for it, even though they don't get sick and are highly unlikely to spread it.

Now, the only meaningful metrics, are hospitalizations/ICU/deaths.

On that note, here in my county, hospitalization admits are rising slightly.  That's what is worrisome.  Unfortunately they don't publish data on what% of those people are vaccinated.
While obviously that's true of your county, we're seeing more and more places that are releasing data on this and deaths are almost universally in the unvaccinated. 

For example, Maryland just released that 100% of all COVID deaths in June were unvaccinated, and 93% of all hospitalizations were...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/covid-maryland-unvaccinated-cases-deaths/2021/07/06/400bf08a-de86-11eb-ae31-6b7c5c34f0d6_story.html

For the deaths, it's not huge numbers... Daily average for June was <10/day. I'm just looking at the Worldometers and back of the envelope suggests about 5 per day, or ~150 deaths in the month of June. But every one of those was unvaccinated... 

Maryland has a little over 50% vaccination at this point, so that's a pretty compelling stat in my mind. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 08, 2021, 11:44:46 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 11:37:26 AM
While obviously that's true of your county, we're seeing more and more places that are releasing data on this and deaths are almost universally in the unvaccinated.

For example, Maryland just released that 100% of all COVID deaths in June were unvaccinated, and 93% of all hospitalizations were...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/covid-maryland-unvaccinated-cases-deaths/2021/07/06/400bf08a-de86-11eb-ae31-6b7c5c34f0d6_story.html

For the deaths, it's not huge numbers... Daily average for June was <10/day. I'm just looking at the Worldometers and back of the envelope suggests about 5 per day, or ~150 deaths in the month of June. But every one of those was unvaccinated...

Maryland has a little over 50% vaccination at this point, so that's a pretty compelling stat in my mind.

Yes, I'm speaking only for the Austin area.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 08, 2021, 12:01:02 PM
I think new case numbers are still relevant as an early indicator, they just aren't completely definitive (never have been).

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 08, 2021, 12:01:46 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/bjirRfG.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 08, 2021, 12:03:48 PM
I think utee is correct

hospitalizations and deaths is much more important

so fat even with a slight uptick in cases deaths remain low
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 08, 2021, 12:07:08 PM
here is latest Texas hospitalization 

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 08, 2021, 12:09:45 PM
I agree hospitalizations is probably the most important metric, but it's a trailing indicator.  New cases is a leading indicator when we compare with data over time.  If you see an uptick in new cases, you almost certainly can expect hospitalizations to follow in 2-3 weeks.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 08, 2021, 12:10:01 PM
The delta variant accounts for more than 51 percent of new COVID-19 infections in the country, according to CDC estimates.

New infections and hospitalizations have increased in recent weeks as the delta variant spreads. Nearly 16,000 new coronavirus cases were detected in Florida last week, a 35 percent increase over the week before. Florida also saw 1,963 new hospitalizations from June 27 to July 4, an increase of 18 percent.


As more and more elderly residents are vaccinated, fatalities due to the coronavirus continue to fall, with 213 new deaths recorded in Florida in the past week, down from 280 per week early last month.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 08, 2021, 12:12:52 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 08, 2021, 12:09:45 PM
I agree hospitalizations is probably the most important metric, but it's a trailing indicator.  New cases is a leading indicator when we compare with data over time.  If you see an uptick in new cases, you almost certainly can expect hospitalizations to follow in 2-3 weeks.


Im not sure that will be the fact with the vaccinations affecting the reaction of testing positive
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 08, 2021, 12:21:17 PM
Japan has stated they will ban spectators at the Olympics

This is a direct result of a low vaccination rate 21%


This seems very out of character for them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 08, 2021, 12:31:47 PM
I am pretty sure where we see a significant increase in positive tests, we'll see hospitalizations go up in 2-3 weeks, without exception.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 08, 2021, 12:39:16 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 08, 2021, 12:01:02 PM
I think new case numbers are still relevant as an early indicator, they just aren't completely definitive (never have been).


Since vaccinated people still test positive even when they're not sick and highly unlikely to spread it, the new case numbers are even less relevant than ever.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 08, 2021, 12:40:55 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 08, 2021, 12:09:45 PM
I agree hospitalizations is probably the most important metric, but it's a trailing indicator.  New cases is a leading indicator when we compare with data over time.  If you see an uptick in new cases, you almost certainly can expect hospitalizations to follow in 2-3 weeks.


Not necessarily.  If you see an uptick in cases in vaccinated individuals, you almost certainly can expect hospitalizations NOT to follow.

Which is the exact point I'm making.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 08, 2021, 12:42:02 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 08, 2021, 12:31:47 PM
I am pretty sure where we see a significant increase in positive tests, we'll see hospitalizations go up in 2-3 weeks, without exception.


I'm not.  Because vaccinated individuals are testing positive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 08, 2021, 01:02:49 PM
Will getting a COVID-19 vaccine cause me to test positive for COVID-19 on a viral test?
(https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/images/vaccines/pos_test.png)
No. None of the authorized and recommended COVID-19 vaccines cause you to test positive on viral tests (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing/diagnostic-testing.html), which are used to see if you have a current infection. Neither can any of the COVID-19 vaccines currently in clinical trials in the United States. Vaccinations protect most people from getting sick. However, a small percentage of fully vaccinated people will still get COVID-19. There is some evidence that vaccination may make illness less severe in people who get vaccinated but still get sick.
If your body develops an immune response to vaccination, which is the goal, you may test positive on some antibody tests (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing/serology-overview.html). Antibody tests indicate you had a previous infection and that you may have some level of protection against the virus. Experts are currently looking at how COVID-19 vaccination may affect antibody testing results.


Myths and Facts about COVID-19 Vaccines | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/facts.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 08, 2021, 01:08:13 PM
I hope you're not posting that in response to my statements?  Because that's not what I'm saying.  I mean, literally everyone on this thread already knows what you posted.

What I'm saying is that vaccinated individuals can still be exposed to the virus, they can develop an immune response, and they can test positive.  It's happening here.  It's happening all over the world.  It's happening in Israel which has one of the most widespread vaccination programs in the world.

But the vast majority of those people, even if they test positive, aren't sick, aren't ending up in hospitals, and aren't spreading it.

Which is why, once again, I'm stating that absolute case counts are an even poorer metric now, than they were 6-12 months ago.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 08, 2021, 01:23:10 PM
Sorry, I thought you meant that.  I think an upswing in positives is bad news, a leading indicator.  It will happen with very few vaccinated individuals, nearly all will be unvaccinated.  And yes, the upswing in deaths and hospitalizations may be slightly less than before, but it will still be expected, in my view.

How many vaccinated individuals will go to get tested if they are not symptomatic?  Some will perforce for other reasons.

I will still be looking at the positives rates and new case counts as a "sign".
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 08, 2021, 01:32:24 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 08, 2021, 01:23:10 PM
Sorry, I thought you meant that.  I think an upswing in positives is bad news, a leading indicator.  It will happen with very few vaccinated individuals, nearly all will be unvaccinated.  And yes, the upswing in deaths and hospitalizations may be slightly less than before, but it will still be expected, in my view.

How many vaccinated individuals will go to get tested if they are not symptomatic?  Some will perforce for other reasons.

I will still be looking at the positives rates and new case counts as a "sign".

I think a lot will, perforce.  We're reaching the end of summer vacation.  There are going to be some school districts that require testing.  Some school, college, and professional sports teams will require testing.  As employees return to work, switching from home-office to actual jobsites, many employers are requiring testing.

A lot of that population will be vaccinated, and some of them are going to test positive.  But any pop resulting from that increase in absolute positive test cases, won't be a leading indicator of trouble.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 08, 2021, 01:51:35 PM
Five vaccinated countries with high Covid rates rely on China vaccines (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/08/five-vaccinated-countries-with-high-covid-rates-rely-on-china-vaccines.html?recirc=taboolainternal)

The wife's closest friend lives in Brazil and got the Sinovac.  The wife asked me if I would take that vaccine personally if that's all we had available.

I didn't give her an answer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 08, 2021, 01:53:52 PM
I would take it. Probably developed by the same guy who made Covid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 08, 2021, 01:55:59 PM
if it was the only available option?  maybe, would depend on how many were sick and dying in my neighborhood
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 08, 2021, 02:02:04 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 08, 2021, 01:53:52 PM
I would take it. Probably developed by the same guy who made Covid.
Fortunately we dont have to worry about that

The last thing I want is to depend on China to provide a fix for something they caused

I dont trust em

and before certain posters on here jump on me Im not meaning the Asian community

of whom I have many friends and some relatives
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 02:28:22 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 08, 2021, 01:08:13 PM
I hope you're not posting that in response to my statements?  Because that's not what I'm saying.  I mean, literally everyone on this thread already knows what you posted.

What I'm saying is that vaccinated individuals can still be exposed to the virus, they can develop an immune response, and they can test positive.  It's happening here.  It's happening all over the world.  It's happening in Israel which has one of the most widespread vaccination programs in the world.

But the vast majority of those people, even if they test positive, aren't sick, aren't ending up in hospitals, and aren't spreading it.

Which is why, once again, I'm stating that absolute case counts are an even poorer metric now, than they were 6-12 months ago.
You're both right. 

I absolutely think that cases are still a leading indicator. In most states we're looking at somewhere in the ~50% range of vaccination and then maybe another 20% natural immunity, but 30% of the population is still a big number. So we're going to see cases rates rise faster in that group than in the vaccinated group... Which would lead to hospitalization/death rates rising as well. And then while it's more rare, there ARE hospitalizations of vaccinated individuals. 

But case rates are becoming more and more poor as a proxy for hospitalizations/deaths as time goes on due to vaccination, unlike 6+ months ago when we didn't have vaccines readily available. 

Anecdotally, my wife's doctor is saying that of the cases that she's seeing, even with the delta variant, it's almost universally unvaccinated people BTW. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 08, 2021, 02:52:08 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 02:28:22 PM
You're both right.

I absolutely think that cases are still a leading indicator. In most states we're looking at somewhere in the ~50% range of vaccination and then maybe another 20% natural immunity, but 30% of the population is still a big number. So we're going to see cases rates rise faster in that group than in the vaccinated group... Which would lead to hospitalization/death rates rising as well. And then while it's more rare, there ARE hospitalizations of vaccinated individuals.

But case rates are becoming more and more poor as a proxy for hospitalizations/deaths as time goes on due to vaccination, unlike 6+ months ago when we didn't have vaccines readily available.

Anecdotally, my wife's doctor is saying that of the cases that she's seeing, even with the delta variant, it's almost universally unvaccinated people BTW.
I can 100% believe that the vast majority of cases a doc is seeing, are unvaccinated.  Because for the most part only sick people go to the doc, and vaccinated people aren't getting sick, for the most part.

But the doc ISN'T seeing the folks that test positive for whatever reason, but aren't sick, either because they're already vaccinated or they just have minimal symptoms. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 02:55:32 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 08, 2021, 02:52:08 PM
I can 100% believe that the vast majority of cases a doc is seeing, are unvaccinated.  Because for the most part only sick people go to the doc, and vaccinated people aren't getting sick, for the most part.

But the doc ISN'T seeing the folks that test positive for whatever reason, but aren't sick, either because they're already vaccinated or they just have minimal symptoms.
Yes, agreed.

Of her two doctors, she's the one that has a rotation in a hospital and not just the private practice. So she's much more exposed to people coming with acute symptoms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 08, 2021, 03:25:18 PM
Of folks who get tested, what percent have resistance due to vaccine or having had it?

I don't think we know.

Of symptomatic folks who get tested, nearly all would be unvaccinated.

I think the point is that the "new case rate" is not as clear an indicator as it was a year ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 08, 2021, 03:34:55 PM
I just drove across the country and back again, and masks are rare at every stop.  Eastbound & down on I-40/20 and then back out west on I-10.  Drove Houston to Phoenix yesterday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 05:12:33 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 08, 2021, 03:34:55 PM
I just drove across the country and back again, and masks are rare at every stop.  Eastbound & down on I-40/20 and then back out west on I-10.  Drove Houston to Phoenix yesterday.
Masks are now rare here in SoCal. Heading to Seattle tomorrow and I'm expecting since they lifted their COVID restrictions a week ago, masks will be sparse and diminishing even over the weekend we're visiting. 

People are tired of masks. People who diligently wore them but are now vaccinated want to go back to normal, and people who didn't want to wear them have stopped, whether they're vaccinated or not. 

Most of the portion of the country you drove through never wanted to wear them in the first place, but even us coastal elites have stopped doing so now that vaccination is widespread. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 08, 2021, 05:15:27 PM
Coastal elite my ass.

I AM COASTAL ELITE.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 08, 2021, 05:35:31 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 05:12:33 PM
Masks are now rare here in SoCal. Heading to Seattle tomorrow and I'm expecting since they lifted their COVID restrictions a week ago, masks will be sparse and diminishing even over the weekend we're visiting.

People are tired of masks. People who diligently wore them but are now vaccinated want to go back to normal, and people who didn't want to wear them have stopped, whether they're vaccinated or not.

Most of the portion of the country you drove through never wanted to wear them in the first place, but even us coastal elites have stopped doing so now that vaccination is widespread.

I'm not sure why anyone should wear a mask now, anyway.  Those who want the vaccine, have it.  Those that don't have the vaccine, don't want it.

Why should vaccinated people go out of their way to wear masks and protect people that don't want to be protected?

That bit is over.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 08, 2021, 05:40:32 PM
Yeah, we're done too. I'm not convinced they work anyway. Lots of people too old for pimples had pimples. And breathing problems.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 05:46:05 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 08, 2021, 05:35:31 PM
I'm not sure why anyone should wear a mask now, anyway.  Those who want the vaccine, have it.  Those that don't have the vaccine, don't want it.

Why should vaccinated people go out of their way to wear masks and protect people that don't want to be protected?

That bit is over.
Yeah, I'm with you. I was all in when it came down to protecting the vulnerable. I'm less interested in protecting the stubborn and obstinate--who don't believe COVID is something they need to be protected from anyway. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 08, 2021, 05:57:43 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 08, 2021, 05:40:32 PM
Yeah, we're done too. I'm not convinced they work anyway. Lots of people too old for pimples had pimples. And breathing problems.
Well the cloth masks and surgical masks, all they ever could do, was act as spit catchers.  There's some value to that, I think.  It doesn't protect the wearer, but it protects those around the wearer from getting spit, coughed, or sneezed on from a distance, by an infected person.  But that's it.

Properly fitted N95 masks protect both the wearer and the general public.  But most people don't have them, never had them, and those that did, often didn't have them properly fitted, so again-- spit-catcher and nothing more.

Hopefully the scientific community has taken this valuable opportunity to conduct a lot of research on the subject, and we'll do better next time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 06:08:40 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 08, 2021, 05:57:43 PM

Hopefully the scientific community has taken this valuable opportunity to conduct a lot of research on the subject, and we'll do better next time.
I'm sure they have...

...and I'm sure we won't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 08, 2021, 06:10:57 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 06:08:40 PM
I'm sure they have...

...and I'm sure we won't.

*sigh*

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 08, 2021, 06:31:07 PM
Pfizer reporting reduced immunity for those vaccinated.  Seeking FDA approval for booster.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 08, 2021, 06:38:39 PM
Japan declares a state of emergency heading into the Olympics.

I am curious as to how we deal with COVID this fall and winter. The numbers will go back up, if we are testing for it. Further, the immunity from vaccines in the spring will likely be much less effective, though it should (hopefully) nullify a lot of the bad outcomes. But in a straight numbers scenario, those will go up and I'm not sure how people will respond to that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 08, 2021, 06:52:02 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 08, 2021, 06:31:07 PM
Pfizer reporting reduced immunity for those vaccinated.  Seeking FDA approval for booster. 
could you post the source 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 06:57:36 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 08, 2021, 06:52:02 PM
could you post the source
https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/08/health/pfizer-waning-immunity-bn/index.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 08, 2021, 07:50:50 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 06:57:36 PM
https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/08/health/pfizer-waning-immunity-bn/index.html
so for folks not yet vaccinated will they combine the booster with the original vaccine when it comes on the market

just a thought
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 08, 2021, 08:06:21 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 08, 2021, 05:35:31 PM
I'm not sure why anyone should wear a mask now, anyway.  Those who want the vaccine, have it.  Those that don't have the vaccine, don't want it.

Why should vaccinated people go out of their way to wear masks and protect people that don't want to be protected?

That bit is over.
That's the spirit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 08:50:52 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 08, 2021, 08:06:21 PM
That's the spirit.
Beyond snarky condescension, do you have an argument?

People who are vaccinated don't need to wear masks to protect themselves. Anyone who wants protection from the virus has pretty ready access to the vaccine by now.

So is there any justification you can give, ethically, why vaccinated adults should be wearing masks? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on July 08, 2021, 09:17:42 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 08, 2021, 05:15:27 PM
Coastal elite my ass.

I AM COASTAL ELITE.
Chicago is on the North Coast,so yes
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 08, 2021, 09:21:26 PM
Having been raised in Galveston I am the true COASTAL ELITE
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 08, 2021, 10:07:28 PM
masks probably killed as many people as they saved
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 08, 2021, 10:58:34 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 08:50:52 PM
Beyond snarky condescension, do you have an argument?

People who are vaccinated don't need to wear masks to protect themselves. Anyone who wants protection from the virus has pretty ready access to the vaccine by now.

So is there any justification you can give, ethically, why vaccinated adults should be wearing masks?

Some people want the public to wear masks indefinitely because... reasons?

There's no science behind it.

The vaccine replaces the mask, and it's far more effective at its job.  That's the entire point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 09, 2021, 08:20:38 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 06:57:36 PM
https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/08/health/pfizer-waning-immunity-bn/index.html
Money grab.


But in an unusual move, two top federal agencies said Americans don't need boosters yet and said it was not up to companies alone to decide when they might be needed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 09, 2021, 08:28:50 AM
I saw two people yesterday outside with masks on, first time in a while.  One was on a nike, outside, in a very uncrowded area.  And no, I don't see any need for masks outside period, maybe in a crowded room, maybe.  It's common practice in Asia apparently.

ATL has a low rate of new cases, to the extent that is relevant, fortunately.

Delta is taking hold globally pretty fast I think.  Israel is a place to watch.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 09, 2021, 08:42:09 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 09, 2021, 08:20:38 AM
Money grab.


But in an unusual move, two top federal agencies said Americans don't need boosters yet and said it was not up to companies alone to decide when they might be needed.
it's obviously up to top federal agencies
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 09, 2021, 09:10:59 AM
Many of us have speculated for a while, that boosters would become necessary.  I don't think this should be surprising or unsettling news. 

If they can demonstrate improved efficacy against mutating strains, then I don't consider it a money grab either.

But I do see it as evidence that long-term, we're just going to have to get used to this virus living among us.  Eventually its novelty will wear off and it will affect humans less dramatically with each passing year.

Just by sheer numbers, there's no way to control a virus that spreads this easily.

Globally, there are billions of people that will never have the means, capability, or access, to get any vaccination at all.  Billions.

The virus will continue to spread and mutate with that population, and will subsequently continue to get reintroduced into the vaccinated population. Because there's absolutely no way to ensure that those populations remain isolated from one another, in any long-term scenario. 



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 09, 2021, 09:19:17 AM
We "tolerate" influenza now as a regular thing.  The vaccines are not nearly as effective as the COVID vaccine is today, too many strains.

But "we" have some resistance to the flu, usually, without a vaccine.  And will have with COVID 19/20/21 probably.

I agree.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 09, 2021, 09:57:02 AM
I read that all the Covid virus in the entire world could be contained in a shot glass. Nothing you can do about that, unless you just stop breathing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 09, 2021, 10:06:40 AM
There is some evidence to suggest common colds caused by coronaviruses started as pandemics too. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 09, 2021, 10:19:58 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on July 09, 2021, 10:06:40 AM
There is some evidence to suggest common colds caused by coronaviruses started as pandemics too.
I discovered a cure for the common cold

Dont have children

My wife and I have not had a cold since our children left the house ten years ago
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 09, 2021, 11:39:47 AM
Is it generally true that viruses tend to become less virulent over time?  I've heard that.

A new type would meet zero resistance.  What if we find one with delayed onset of symptoms, high rate of transmission, and ....


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 10, 2021, 12:17:38 AM
I just saw that California is going to require masks for all school children this fall

course they will have a new governor so maybe sanity will prevail 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on July 10, 2021, 01:10:11 AM
My clients see me mostly due to adverse circumstances. Most seem to like me. I like to have fun and tell jokes to my clients who are going through hard times because if you can't laugh you will cry. Many will give as much as they take from me. About a dozen or more years ago, a guy walked in my office as I was talking about my experiences in southern Iowa. He said, if you move half the people from southern Iowa to Missouri you will improve the IQ of both states. He had no college education, yet he was spot-on.
Map shows how almost all the US counties where COVID-19 is surging have vaccination rates below 40% (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/map-shows-how-almost-all-the-us-counties-where-covid-19-is-surging-have-vaccination-rates-below-40/ar-AALXLvZ?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531)

(https://i.imgur.com/1rB2KT6.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on July 10, 2021, 01:20:56 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 09, 2021, 11:39:47 AM
Is it generally true that viruses tend to become less virulent over time?  I've heard that.
I am not sure this is entirely true. Viruses should seek to survive. If they kill their host the likelihood of survival decreases. This was the suggestion we had from the 1918 - 20 flu.

But, with the Delta variant I am not so sure it holds true. Consider the burning carcasses in India; there weren't enough fires to burn human carcasses. Over time logic would suggest that variants wishing to survive will mutate so the virus will continue with less dangerous variants, but in near time, it may not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 10, 2021, 07:02:47 AM
That's why I used the term "tend".  It likely wouldn't be absolutely true.

And a virus with a delayed onset of symptoms might not need to moderate to spread until it got us all.

That is one scary thought.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2021, 08:35:08 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on July 10, 2021, 01:10:11 AM

Map shows how almost all the US counties where COVID-19 is surging have vaccination rates below 40% (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/map-shows-how-almost-all-the-us-counties-where-covid-19-is-surging-have-vaccination-rates-below-40/ar-AALXLvZ?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531)

(https://i.imgur.com/1rB2KT6.png)
Here is the correct map. I clicked on the article because I already knew that Dade County FL was close to 80 percent vaccinated.


(https://i.imgur.com/KZpuomm.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on July 10, 2021, 10:39:14 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 08, 2021, 10:07:28 PM
masks probably killed as many people as they saved
Sure store owners shot them but the it wasn't reported by the Deep State
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2021, 11:57:30 AM
So, Cali still gonna require masks for all kids. So damaging.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 10, 2021, 12:12:43 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2021, 11:57:30 AM
So, Cali still gonna require masks for all kids. So damaging.
I posted this up thread
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 10, 2021, 01:59:49 PM
Damaging?  What are the stats on mask damage?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2021, 04:10:43 PM
Breathing problems. It's not good to breath Co2 all day long. This is proven among all of us.

Not to mention the psychological issues. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 10, 2021, 08:35:34 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2021, 04:10:43 PM
Breathing problems. It's not good to breath Co2 all day long. This is proven among all of us.

Not to mention the psychological issues.
Hmm...

Three refrain has been that masks are useless because the virus is so much smaller than the weave of the mask, right?

What's smaller? A virus cell or a molecule of CO2?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 10, 2021, 10:13:24 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 10, 2021, 08:35:34 PM
Hmm...

Three refrain has been that masks are useless because the virus is so much smaller than the weave of the mask, right?

What's smaller? A virus cell or a molecule of CO2?


not sure ask the CDC cause this goes against their latest recommendation 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 10, 2021, 11:15:07 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2021, 04:10:43 PM
Breathing problems. It's not good to breath Co2 all day long. This is proven among all of us.

Not to mention the psychological issues.
Snowflake
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 11, 2021, 06:34:13 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2021, 04:10:43 PM
Breathing problems. It's not good to breath Co2 all day long. This is proven among all of us.

Not to mention the psychological issues.
Psychological issues?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 11, 2021, 07:17:40 AM
Yes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 11, 2021, 07:22:07 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 10, 2021, 11:15:07 PM
Snowflake
Still looking in the mirror?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on July 11, 2021, 07:39:07 AM
I think masks are best seen as a low cost annoyance that lessens transmission by an unknown degree. It may be minor, it may be more than that, but there is a decent amount of evidence that they do provide a positive benefit at a relatively low cost. That said, it becomes easy to be seduced by the idea that we need them forever, as COVID will last forever, and this is not a great conclusion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 11, 2021, 08:31:47 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 11, 2021, 07:17:40 AM
Yes.
How so?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 11, 2021, 08:50:52 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 10, 2021, 08:35:34 PM
Hmm...

Three refrain has been that masks are useless because the virus is so much smaller than the weave of the mask, right?

What's smaller? A virus cell or a molecule of CO2?

I'd guess this is rhetorical.  I did a bit of work in filtration back in the day.  It's fairly complex, and one means of filtration is called "interception" which is how most thing filtration works, but that is not the only mechanism.  A coarser weave than the particle can still filter a particle reasonably well by other mechanisms, electrostatics being one of them.

A mask, to me, is like covering your mouth when you sneeze or cough, but more consistent and effective at stopping droplets from being sprayed around.  Even loud speech sprays droplets outward, which can carry virus to others.

We had a remarkably low flu season this past year, it's worth thinking about why.  There were more vaccinations for flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 11, 2021, 09:04:55 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on July 11, 2021, 08:31:47 AM
How so?
Just do a little research.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 11, 2021, 09:06:04 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 11, 2021, 08:50:52 AM
We had a remarkably low flu season this past year, it's worth thinking about why.  There were more vaccinations for flu.
I have a theory.

China was closed to the world, therefore it could not escape from there, as usual.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 11, 2021, 09:24:09 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 11, 2021, 09:04:55 AM
Just do a little research.
Badge. I'm not trying to be glib here. I see sort of scattered stuff, situations about recognizing faces and reading emotions and such. These don't seem good, but also don't seem to rise to the level of psychological issues. If you want to point me to something more, would love to see it. 

But, in the grand scheme of ways we're warping out brains on a daily basis, I don't totally see how this stands out, or how it stands out from other things that have been done in the past that have been deemed mostly socially alright. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on July 11, 2021, 10:11:03 AM
Our kids have not worn masks at school since March. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 11, 2021, 10:37:18 AM
I think it likely masks are not some massive health risk to anyone nor are they a panacea in preventing the virus.

The truth often is in the middle.

I'm OK with wearing a mask in a crowded area indoors if required.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 11, 2021, 02:45:47 PM
Quote from: Gigem on July 11, 2021, 10:11:03 AM
Our kids have not worn masks at school since March.
Florida has not required them in schools since last June.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 12, 2021, 12:17:27 PM
my only issue with masks is the false sense of security it provides to those who are at risk

I don't have a problem with wearing a mask, there is some benefit to lessen the spread

the vaccine is much more effective at lessening the spread and keeping yourself safe from the virus
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 12, 2021, 12:46:51 PM
There is no hard proof that wearing a mask prevents spread. Especially if you use the same one several times, and if you sweat (we all do). Lots of adults got pimples for the first time since they were in high school.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 12, 2021, 10:15:20 PM
U.S. regulators on Monday added a new warning to Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine about links to a rare and potentially dangerous neurological reaction, but said it’s not entirely clear the shot caused the problem.

The Food and Drug Administration announced the new warning, flagging reports of Guillain-Barre syndrome, an immune system disorder that can causes muscle weakness and occasionally paralysis. Health officials described the side effect as a “small possible risk” for those getting the shot.

The action comes after the FDA and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reviewed reports of about 100 people developing the syndrome after receiving the one-dose vaccine. Almost all of were hospitalized and one person died, the FDA said.

Guillain-Barre syndrome occurs when the body’s immune system mistakenly attacks some of its nerve cells, causing muscle weakness and sometimes paralysis that typically is temporary. An estimated 3,000 to 6,000 people develop the syndrome each year, according to the CDC.

The number of cases reported in connection with J&J’s vaccine represents a tiny fraction of the nearly 13 million Americans who have received the one-dose shot. Most cases were reported in men — many 50 years old and up — and usually about two weeks after vaccination.


https://apnews.com/article/business-science-health-coronavirus-pandemic-coronavirus-vaccine-8c7e69806af9b0fe3b158382b2f57c4f (https://apnews.com/article/business-science-health-coronavirus-pandemic-coronavirus-vaccine-8c7e69806af9b0fe3b158382b2f57c4f)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on July 13, 2021, 01:15:05 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 12, 2021, 12:46:51 PM
There is no hard proof that wearing a mask prevents spread. Especially if you use the same one several times, and if you sweat (we all do). Lots of adults got pimples for the first time since they were in high school.
Why does your dentist wear a mask? 
Why does your surgeon wear a mask?
If masks are futile why were nurses and physicians wearing them in COVID wards?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on July 13, 2021, 01:25:43 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 12, 2021, 10:15:20 PM
U.S. regulators on Monday added a new warning to Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine about links to a rare and potentially dangerous neurological reaction, but said it’s not entirely clear the shot caused the problem.



https://apnews.com/article/business-science-health-coronavirus-pandemic-coronavirus-vaccine-8c7e69806af9b0fe3b158382b2f57c4f (https://apnews.com/article/business-science-health-coronavirus-pandemic-coronavirus-vaccine-8c7e69806af9b0fe3b158382b2f57c4f)
Traditional type vaccines for the flu also carry with them a very tiny risk of Guillain-Barre syndrome. Johnson & Johnson produced a vaccine in the traditional manner, i.e. not an MRNA vaccine. The warning should have been added when the vaccine was produced. I am not sure if 100 out of 12.8 million doses, which is the reported risk, is of much concern considering the background is 1 in 100,000 contract the syndrome each year. Guillain-Barré Syndrome Fact Sheet | National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (nih.gov) (https://www.ninds.nih.gov/Disorders/Patient-Caregiver-Education/Fact-Sheets/Guillain-Barré-Syndrome-Fact-Sheet) So 1 in 128,000 people receiving the J & J vaccine contracted Guillain-Barre, while 1 in 100,000 will contract it each year. I would have to rely on Medina Buckeye to explain these statistics to me, but it doesn't seem like the risk is much greater, if it is even any greater, amongst J & J vaccine recipients. 
But legally it should be warned about, and should have been part of the warning from the outset.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 13, 2021, 02:17:22 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 12, 2021, 12:46:51 PM
There is no hard proof that wearing a mask prevents spread. 
Sigh.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on July 13, 2021, 07:55:00 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 12, 2021, 12:46:51 PM
There is no hard proof that wearing a mask prevents spread. Especially if you use the same one several times, and if you sweat (we all do). Lots of adults got pimples for the first time since they were in high school.
Take a shot of jim beam before you put the mask on seems to work.A friend went to see see a DR for his shoulder and the guy told him a mask is like a chain link fence put up to stop mosquitos.Being facetious prolly
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 13, 2021, 08:15:46 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on July 13, 2021, 01:15:05 AM
Why does your dentist wear a mask?
Why does your surgeon wear a mask?
If masks are futile why were nurses and physicians wearing them in COVID wards?
In Covid wards, doctors and nurses are wearing N95's, properly fit for them.

Surgeons and dentists wear them to prevent droplets from entering a body's compromised situation.

Surgical masks are not effective for reducing Covid transmission.

How about this:


(https://i.imgur.com/GYqtNH4.png)

Infographic - Understanding the Difference, Surgical Mask, N95 Respirator (cdc.gov)
 (https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/pdfs/understanddifferenceinfographic-508.pdf)


We good now?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 13, 2021, 09:31:10 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on July 13, 2021, 01:15:05 AM
Why does your dentist wear a mask?
Why does your surgeon wear a mask?


So they don't spit in your mouth or open wounds while they're working on you?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 13, 2021, 09:38:53 AM
so the hygienist doesn't get debris in her mouth

wears safety glasses so crap doesn't get in her eyes 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 13, 2021, 11:05:39 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 13, 2021, 09:38:53 AM
so the hygienist doesn't get debris in her mouth

wears safety glasses so crap doesn't get in her eyes
Yup, that too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 13, 2021, 11:11:48 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on July 13, 2021, 07:55:00 AM
Take a shot of jim beam before you put the mask on seems to work.A friend went to see see a DR for his shoulder and the guy told him a mask is like a chain link fence put up to stop mosquitos.Being facetious prolly
and if it doesnt who cares
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 13, 2021, 11:17:07 AM
if it doesn't, keep repeating until it does
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on July 13, 2021, 07:02:21 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on July 13, 2021, 07:55:00 AM
Take a shot of jim beam before you put the mask on seems to work.A friend went to see see a DR for his shoulder and the guy told him a mask is like a chain link fence put up to stop mosquitos.Being facetious prolly
I knew two men in the early to mid-1990s, who liked each other. One had full blown AIDS. The other did not. They went out to eat breakfast. They had the same breakfast, but different breakfast beverages. The one not dx with AIDS contracted salmonella traced to the restaurant to the eggs benedict, because several others who ate eggs benedict got sick. The one with AIDS did not get salmonella (but he died from an unrelated AIDS cause some months later).
Of course, the one not dx with AIDS was very worried - thought he must have AIDS, but tested negative, again.
So he asked the physician, "Why did I get so sick and my partner did not?" Physician inquired, "What else did you have?" Response, "He had a bloody mary, and I had water." Physician replied, "The alcohol in the bloody mary killed the salmonella."
Whenever I eat something I think is questionable I follow it with a shot of whiskey.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 13, 2021, 07:04:31 PM
pretty much everything is a little questionable

no sense taking chances
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on July 13, 2021, 07:13:04 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 13, 2021, 08:15:46 AM
In Covid wards, doctors and nurses are wearing N95's, properly fit for them.

Surgeons and dentists wear them to prevent droplets from entering a body's compromised situation.

Surgical masks are not effective for reducing Covid transmission.

How about this:


(https://i.imgur.com/GYqtNH4.png)

Infographic - Understanding the Difference, Surgical Mask, N95 Respirator (cdc.gov)
 (https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/pdfs/understanddifferenceinfographic-508.pdf)


We good now?
My brother is a dentist. He says the reason we wear masks is to prevent the spread of disease. The surgical masks are better at preventing spread than protecting against it. But there is still some protection. I buy the KN95s which are close to being N95s. I contracted COVID-19 wearing a surgical mask in the presence of clients who turned out were positive, but asymptomatic - until later. I suspect I am not superman. The mask probably helped - I think. That said, when I learned KN95s were available I bought some in January, especially to wear in densely populated indoor rooms, airports and airplanes. I bought more last week.
Our spread in Iowa is really low right now. If it ticks up this fall, and winter, I will probably go back to the mask. I hear my brother the dentist is continuing to wear masks in public places, which I think for a medical professional working in close quarters with peoples' mouths wide open -- is probably a good idea.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 13, 2021, 07:32:17 PM
Quote from: Hawkinole on July 13, 2021, 07:02:21 PM
I knew two men in the early to mid-1990s, who liked each other. One had full blown AIDS. The other did not. They went out to eat breakfast. They had the same breakfast, but different breakfast beverages. The one not dx with AIDS contracted salmonella traced to the restaurant to the eggs benedict, because several others who ate eggs benedict got sick. The one with AIDS did not get salmonella (but he died from an unrelated AIDS cause some months later).
Of course, the one not dx with AIDS was very worried - thought he must have AIDS, but tested negative, again.
So he asked the physician, "Why did I get so sick and my partner did not?" Physician inquired, "What else did you have?" Response, "He had a bloody mary, and I had water." Physician replied, "The alcohol in the bloody mary killed the salmonella."
Whenever I eat something I think is questionable I follow it with a shot of whiskey.
Words to live by. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 13, 2021, 07:43:43 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 12, 2021, 12:46:51 PM
There is no hard proof that wearing a mask prevents spread. 
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776536

Quote
Prior to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the efficacy of community mask wearing to reduce the spread of respiratory infections was controversial because there were no solid relevant data to support their use. During the pandemic, the scientific evidence has increased. Compelling data now demonstrate that community mask wearing is an effective nonpharmacologic intervention to reduce the spread of this infection, especially as source control to prevent spread from infected persons, but also as protection to reduce wearers’ exposure to infection.

<snip>

Community mask wearing substantially reduces transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in 2 ways. First, masks prevent infected persons from exposing others to SARS-CoV-2 by blocking exhalation of virus-containing droplets into the air (termed source control). This aspect of mask wearing is especially important because it is estimated that at least 50% or more of transmissions are from persons who never develop symptoms or those who are in the presymptomatic phase of COVID-19 illness.1 (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776536#jit210006r1) In recent laboratory experiments, multilayer cloth masks were more effective than single-layer masks, blocking as much as 50% to 70% of exhaled small droplets and particles.2 (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776536#jit210006r2),3 (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776536#jit210006r3) In some cases, cloth masks have performed similar to surgical or procedure masks for source control. Second, masks protect uninfected wearers. Masks form a barrier to large respiratory droplets that could land on exposed mucous membranes of the eye, nose, and mouth. Masks can also partially filter out small droplets and particles from inhaled air. Multiple layers of fabric and fabrics with higher thread counts improve filtration. However, the observed effectiveness of cloth masks to protect the wearer is lower than their effectiveness for source control,3 (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776536#jit210006r3) and the filtration capacity of cloth masks can be highly dependent on design, fit, and materials used. Standards for cloth masks are needed to help consumers select marketed products.

Epidemiological investigations have helped quantify the benefit of mask wearing to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2 (Table (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776536#jit210006t1); Supplement (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776536#note-JIT210006-1)). At a hair salon in which all staff and clients were required to wear a mask under local ordinance and company policy, 2 symptomatic, infected stylists attended to 139 clients and no infections were observed in the 67 clients who were reached for interviewing and testing. During a COVID-19 outbreak on the USS Theodore Roosevelt, persons who wore masks experienced a 70% lower risk of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection.4 (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776536#jit210006r4) Similar reductions have been reported in case contact investigations when contacts were masked5 (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776536#jit210006r5) and in household clusters in which household members were masked.6 (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776536#jit210006r6)

An increasing number of ecological studies have also provided persuasive evidence that universal mandatory mask wearing policies have been associated with reductions in the number or rate of infections and deaths (Table (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776536#jit210006t1)). These studies did not distinguish the types of masks (cloth, surgical, or N95) used in the community. This association is strengthened because, in many cases, other mitigation strategies (eg, school and workplace closures, recommendations for social distancing, hand hygiene) had already been deployed before enactment of mask wearing policies, after which the reductions were observed. A study that examined changes in growth rates for infections in 15 states and the District of Columbia before and after mask mandates showed that rates were growing before the mandates were enacted and slowed significantly after, with greater benefit the longer the mandates had been in place.7 (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776536#jit210006r7)

Wearing a mask can become uncomfortable, particularly for long periods in warm environments, and covering the nose and mouth may inhibit verbal and nonverbal communication, particularly for children and deaf individuals. However, children aged 7 to 13 years have been shown to be able to make accurate inferences about the emotions of others with partially covered faces,8 (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776536#jit210006r8) and the US Food and Drug Administration recently approved a transparent surgical mask that may be useful in such circumstances. Concerns about reduced oxygen saturation and carbon dioxide retention when wearing a mask have not been supported by available data.9 (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776536#jit210006r9)

The overall community benefit of wearing masks derives from their combined ability to limit both exhalation and inhalation of infectious virus. Similar to the principle of herd immunity for vaccination, the greater the extent to which the intervention—mask wearing in this case—is adopted by the community, the larger the benefit to each individual member. The prevalence of mask use in the community may be of greater importance than the type of mask worn. It merits noting that a recent study has been improperly characterized by some sources as showing that cloth or surgical masks offer no benefit. This randomized trial in Denmark was designed to detect at least a 50% reduction in risk for persons wearing surgical masks. Findings were inconclusive,10 (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776536#jit210006r10) most likely because the actual reduction in exposure these masks provided for the wearer was lower. More importantly, the study was far too small (ie, enrolled about 0.1% of the population) to assess the community benefit achieved when wearer protection is combined with reduced source transmission from mask wearers to others.

I suppose there's SOME evidence...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 13, 2021, 08:14:49 PM
believe the science
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2021, 06:44:31 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on July 13, 2021, 07:13:04 PM
My brother is a dentist. He says the reason we wear masks is to prevent the spread of disease. The surgical masks are better at preventing spread than protecting against it. But there is still some protection. I buy the KN95s which are close to being N95s. I contracted COVID-19 wearing a surgical mask in the presence of clients who turned out were positive, but asymptomatic - until later. I suspect I am not superman. The mask probably helped - I think. That said, when I learned KN95s were available I bought some in January, especially to wear in densely populated indoor rooms, airports and airplanes. I bought more last week.
Our spread in Iowa is really low right now. If it ticks up this fall, and winter, I will probably go back to the mask. I hear my brother the dentist is continuing to wear masks in public places, which I think for a medical professional working in close quarters with peoples' mouths wide open -- is probably a good idea.
Well, I have an anecdotal experience to share too.

Back in May, I was up in the Chicago area and had a minor procedure to remove a growth on my back. I have had him do several procedures over the years, so we know each other.

The Surgeon walked into the room without a mask on. He asked me if I was fully vaccinated, and I said I was. He told me I could take my mask off if I wanted to, and I did.

He put his surgical mask on while doing the procedure. Stitched me up, dressed the wound, and took his mask off. Shook my hand, had a few laughs, and he left.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2021, 10:16:51 AM
The mask thing to me is common sense, in addition to some data.  It's also not perfect, and it's also not very annoying, to me.

I have not worn one now in some weeks though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 14, 2021, 10:25:16 AM
Wearing a mask doesn't bother me,  but I don't work in a job where I have to wear it 8+ hours per day, every day.  Only time I've ever had to wear it is when going shopping at the grocery store or a retail store, or when walking to and from a table at a restaurant.

Folks who have to wear the mask constantly, for work, could potentially have a difference experience from me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2021, 10:32:05 AM
I fly a lot. It annoys me to no end.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 14, 2021, 10:45:31 AM
I haven't flown since before the pandemic.  

Current plans for next flying vacation are Europe in 2022 (delayed from 2020 for obvious reasons).  Budapest, Croatia, and Greece.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2021, 10:53:38 AM
I have to be in the Chicago area at least once a month. I was going up even before I was vaccinated, starting in January. Of course, I also had natural immunity - which some studies out there think is better than the vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 14, 2021, 10:57:30 AM
Yeah I'm lucky.  I haven't had to travel very much for work in about a decade.  And for my normal job I was working from home 90% of the time even before the pandemic.  This stuff was relatively easy for me, other than having to manage the kids who were doing online school for the first 6 months of it all, while I'm trying to work and do online meetings all day.  

On the other hand, my i s c & a aggie wife has had to wear a mask all day, every day, at the PT clinic.  She never complains about it, but she doesn't really complain about much of anything.  She just figures it's part of the job and does it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 14, 2021, 11:03:18 AM
if she doesn't complain about you, nothing should bother her

;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 14, 2021, 11:05:03 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 14, 2021, 11:03:18 AM
if she doesn't complain about you, nothing should bother her

;)

Exactly twenty years, today.


So I guess she has decided to keep me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 14, 2021, 11:07:43 AM
Quote from: utee94 on July 14, 2021, 11:05:03 AM
Exactly twenty years, today.


So I guess she has decided to keep me.
My wife and I  at 50th in 17 days
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 14, 2021, 11:20:51 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 14, 2021, 11:07:43 AM
My wife and I  at 50th in 17 days
Corngrats!

My folks took us all on a cruise for their 50th.  What are you doing for YOUR kids? :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 14, 2021, 11:33:06 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2021, 06:44:31 AM
Well, I have an anecdotal experience to share too.

Back in May, I was up in the Chicago area and had a minor procedure to remove a growth on my back. I have had him do several procedures over the years, so we know each other.

The Surgeon walked into the room without a mask on. He asked me if I was fully vaccinated, and I said I was. He told me I could take my mask off if I wanted to, and I did.

He put his surgical mask on while doing the procedure. Stitched me up, dressed the wound, and took his mask off. Shook my hand, had a few laughs, and he left.
If you and he were both vaccinated, there wasn't much point to the masks.

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2021, 10:32:05 AM
I fly a lot. It annoys me to no end.
Yeah, this past weekend going to Seattle was more than I've worn a mask in a long time. Had to wear it in the airport and on the plane. Had to wear it on the light rail into the city. Had to wear it every time we got in an Uber. Had to wear it in a lot of the "public" things like the Chihuly glass museum, Museum of Pop Culture, and Space Needle. Definitely annoying.

Prior to this, I basically only wore it when I went into Costco / other stores, and that's ended here in CA since June 15. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2021, 12:04:13 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 14, 2021, 11:33:06 AM
If you and he were both vaccinated, there wasn't much point to the masks.

Except for the Illinois mandate. :67:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2021, 12:11:54 PM
U.S. drug overdose deaths rise 30% to record during pandemic (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/u-s-drug-overdose-deaths-rise-30-to-record-during-pandemic/ar-AAM9vCt?ocid=msedgntp)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 14, 2021, 03:17:54 PM
https://www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/vinay-prasad/93565?trw=no

What Evidence Do We Need to Move Forward With COVID Boosters?
— More data and an evaluation of several factors at home and abroad are key
by Vinay Prasad, MD, MPH July 14, 2021




Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on July 19, 2021, 09:18:43 AM
Congrats utee, me and my wife celebrate our 20th this year as well.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 19, 2021, 09:44:52 AM
Quote from: utee94 on July 14, 2021, 11:20:51 AM
Corngrats!

My folks took us all on a cruise for their 50th.  What are you doing for YOUR kids? :)
Are you kidding?

I have them both convinced their being in our will is hanging by a thread.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 19, 2021, 01:52:14 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 19, 2021, 09:44:52 AM
Are you kidding?

I have them both convinced their being in our will is hanging by a thread.


Heh.  I told my parents that I'm doing fine, I don't need any of their money, they should spend it on themselves for as long as they can.

HOWEVER-- they better not become a burden to ME.  I don't ask a penny from them, they don't need to ask for a penny from me. 

Just kidding. :)

(sort of...)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 19, 2021, 02:06:40 PM
sort of
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 19, 2021, 02:10:26 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 19, 2021, 02:06:40 PM
sort of
They're pretty well set, they've made good investments over the years, and the house they built in 1968 for $30,000 and paid off 40 years ago, is now worth close to a million.  So if they really needed money they could liquidate that.

It's unlikely they'll ever need anything from me.  But still, they better not blow it, and then ask me... ;)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 19, 2021, 02:17:13 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 19, 2021, 02:10:26 PM
They're pretty well set, they've made good investments over the years, and the house they built in 1968 for $30,000 and paid off 40 years ago, is now worth close to a million.  So if they really needed money they could liquidate that.

It's unlikely they'll ever need anything from me.  But still, they better not blow it, and then ask me... ;)


My dad always said he wanted to be pushing his last twenty to the bartender as he took his last breath

My mom often said she wanted to take her sons' inheritance and buy the most expensive bottle of wine in the world

go out by the water and drink it

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 19, 2021, 02:22:13 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 19, 2021, 02:17:13 PM
My dad always said he wanted to be pushing his last twenty to the bartender as he took his last breath

My mom often said she wanted to take her sons' inheritance and buy the most expensive bottle of wine in the world

go out by the water and drink it


Heh, I like your folks.  That's basically what I told mine to do.  Use it while you can.  You can't take it with you, and I'm blessed enough not to need it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 19, 2021, 02:24:10 PM
I hope to be pushing that last 20 to the bartender
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 19, 2021, 02:37:01 PM
All I know is that my siblings and I won't have to worry about fighting over our inheritance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 19, 2021, 02:38:49 PM
Super expensive wine is usually not "ready to drink", but you can find aged wines that qualify.   I have opened a bottle of pretty expensive wine (split with friends) way too early and it was meh.

This is a mistake some folks make, they pay $2,000 for a new release Bordeaux or Burgundy and drink it.  Something like 7-8 of the ten most expensive wines are usually Burgundies.  

I have some moderately expensive wines sitting around that will just sit for a while because I would want to share them with friends.  

I let one sit around until my 50th birthday and it was past its prime, still good, but obviously not where it should have been.  Lafite '66.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 20, 2021, 08:04:21 AM
What is up with this?

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/60-people-being-admitted-uk-hospitals-had-two-covid-jabs-adviser-2021-07-19/

He later corrected himself to say that he had it backwards and it’s only 40%, but still that’s a crazy number. Is it because in the UK many have the Astra Zeneca version?

Then there is this:

https://www.kentucky.com/news/coronavirus/article252876588.html

I know the soundbites that are being fed to us are saying that 99% of new hospitalizations are unvaccinated people. But whenever I hear that no one shows any data, it’s just a soundbite.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2021, 09:12:20 AM
The AZ vaccine is far less proven than the Moderna and Pfizer vaccine.

There is a reason is has not gained FDA approval.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 20, 2021, 09:14:19 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2021, 09:12:20 AM
The AZ vaccine is far less proven than the Moderna and Pfizer vaccine.

There is a reason is has not gained FDA approval.
Makes sense. I am personally aware of five people here in my work circles that have been vaccinated and have now tested positive for Covid. Two of them have been hospitalized.

booster time?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 20, 2021, 09:15:45 AM
The five testing positive I don't consider a big deal by itself.

But two being hospitalized, I consider a VERY big deal.  I hope they're alright.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2021, 09:17:58 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 20, 2021, 09:14:19 AM
Makes sense. I am personally aware of five people here in my work circles that have been vaccinated and have now tested positive for Covid. Two of them have been hospitalized.

booster time?
Too soon to tell, probably. The vaccine.. I don't think there is anything perfect. You can still get infected, but it's supposed to keep you out of the hospital.

That is disturbing. What VAX did they receive? Any idea?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 20, 2021, 09:22:13 AM
the two that were hospitalized, were they at high risk?

elderly, obese, diabetics???  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 20, 2021, 09:51:23 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2021, 09:17:58 AM
Too soon to tell, probably. The vaccine.. I don't think there is anything perfect. You can still get infected, but it's supposed to keep you out of the hospital.

That is disturbing. What VAX did they receive? Any idea?
Pfizer
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 20, 2021, 09:52:38 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 20, 2021, 09:22:13 AM
the two that were hospitalized, were they at high risk?

elderly, obese, diabetics??? 
One did.  Mid 50s, not perfect health.  The secon, mid 40s, healthy and although hospitalized- doing well and improving fast. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2021, 11:12:54 AM
How long has it been since they had the second shot?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 20, 2021, 11:16:57 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2021, 11:12:54 AM
How long has it been since they had the second shot?
Several months.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 20, 2021, 12:06:45 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 20, 2021, 08:04:21 AM
What is up with this?

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/60-people-being-admitted-uk-hospitals-had-two-covid-jabs-adviser-2021-07-19/

He later corrected himself to say that he had it backwards and it’s only 40%, but still that’s a crazy number. Is it because in the UK many have the Astra Zeneca version?

Then there is this:

https://www.kentucky.com/news/coronavirus/article252876588.html

I know the soundbites that are being fed to us are saying that 99% of new hospitalizations are unvaccinated people. But whenever I hear that no one shows any data, it’s just a soundbite.
The second article did highlight a study from the UK that showed Pfizer to be 96% effective against hospitalization for the Delta variant, and further highlighted that those who were vaccinated and ended up in the hospital had underlying conditions.

It also mentioned that 55% of Lexington residents were vaccinated. If 55% are vaccinated but only make up 20% of new cases, that's important. And if they make up almost 0 of the hospitalizations, that's even more important. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 20, 2021, 12:26:34 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 20, 2021, 12:06:45 PM
The second article did highlight a study from the UK that showed Pfizer to be 96% effective against hospitalization for the Delta variant, and further highlighted that those who were vaccinated and ended up in the hospital had underlying conditions.

It also mentioned that 55% of Lexington residents were vaccinated. If 55% are vaccinated but only make up 20% of new cases, that's important. And if they make up almost 0 of the hospitalizations, that's even more important.


These are the stats I'd like to see maintained, and published, across all regions.  If we're going to be asked, or even just encouraged, to go back to Stage 4 type restrictions, then they're going to have to provide compelling evidence for vaccinated individuals to do so.

And if they're going to ask vaccinated individuals to mask up, then they're going to need to provide evidence that wearing masks provides a statistically significant amount of additional benefit, on top of the vaccination itself.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2021, 12:50:01 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 20, 2021, 12:26:34 PM
These are the stats I'd like to see maintained, and published, across all regions.  If we're going to be asked, or even just encouraged, to go back to Stage 4 type restrictions, then they're going to have to provide compelling evidence for vaccinated individuals to do so.

And if they're going to ask vaccinated individuals to mask up, then they're going to need to provide evidence that wearing masks provides a statistically significant amount of additional benefit, on top of the vaccination itself.


"They" cannot do that. "They" have already told us that masks don't help, unless they are N95, properly fitted and maintained.

But, "they" will probably try to force us to do it, no matter what THE SCIENCE says.



Got an email from my airline today about an upcoming trip. In it was a statement that "It is a violation of Federal Law to not wear a mask in airports and on airplanes." I've heard the same blaring out at Fort Myers, Punta Gorda, Midway and ORD.

Maybe I missed it, but when did Congress vote on this "law" and when did the President sign it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 20, 2021, 01:13:16 PM
I think "they" will get significantly more pushback now on any attempt at mask mandates, than "they" ever received previously.

I don't see any way the state of Texas ever makes it a statewide mandate again.  Municipalities within the state might, including and especially Austin, but for the most part this state is done with masks, it's done with closures, it's done with lockdowns, it's done with social distancing.

It's up to the citizens to protect themselves by making the choice to get vaccinated.  My entire family is (aside from my 11yo son who can't yet).  And all of my family and friends that I interact with, with any regularity, are vaccinated as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 20, 2021, 01:20:32 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 20, 2021, 12:06:45 PM
The second article did highlight a study from the UK that showed Pfizer to be 96% effective against hospitalization for the Delta variant, and further highlighted that those who were vaccinated and ended up in the hospital had underlying conditions.

It also mentioned that 55% of Lexington residents were vaccinated. If 55% are vaccinated but only make up 20% of new cases, that's important. And if they make up almost 0 of the hospitalizations, that's even more important.

It’s interesting that you mention “ underlying conditions“.   
is that allowed now?

I saw data yesterday that reflected the number of people under the age of 18 that have passed away from Covid. It was from Johns Hopkins university. The number was 335 but when you eliminate those who had serious underlying conditions, the number was zero. Not just underlying conditions, but serious underlying conditions.

so that leads me to wonder why are we now seeing recommendations for children to be masked up and vaccinated? Where is the science there?  Am I allowed to ask those questions without having people censor me?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 20, 2021, 01:26:08 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 20, 2021, 01:20:32 PM
It’s interesting that you mention “ underlying conditions“.   
is that allowed now?

I saw data yesterday that reflected the number of people under the age of 18 that have passed away from Covid. It was from Johns Hopkins university. The number was 335 but when you eliminate those who had serious underlying conditions, the number was zero. Not just underlying conditions, but serious underlying conditions.

so that leads me to wonder why are we now seeing recommendations for children to be masked up and vaccinated? Where is the science there?  Am I allowed to ask those questions without having people censor me?
Yes, for sure-- at least here, you can.

I share many of the same questions as you.

If you're going to cite THE SCIENCE as your rationale, then THE SCIENCE better be clearly on your side.  Otherwise you're just as stupid as the people you're blasting for being anti-science.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 20, 2021, 01:33:50 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 20, 2021, 01:20:32 PM
It’s interesting that you mention “ underlying conditions“.   
is that allowed now?

I saw data yesterday that reflected the number of people under the age of 18 that have passed away from Covid. It was from Johns Hopkins university. The number was 335 but when you eliminate those who had serious underlying conditions, the number was zero. Not just underlying conditions, but serious underlying conditions.

so that leads me to wonder why are we now seeing recommendations for children to be masked up and vaccinated? Where is the science there?  Am I allowed to ask those questions without having people censor me?
I can't explain anyone else's reasoning, but I will explain my own...

Prior to the vaccine becoming available, I didn't really worry that much about getting COVID. I'm 42, healthy, and outside of carrying a little extra weight, don't have any underlying conditions. Yes, that doesn't mean that I *couldn't* get hospitalized or die from COVID, but that the personal risk was quite low. 

Yet I did support the idea of masking and social distancing. Because it's a numbers game regarding the spread. If I were to get COVID, who could I spread it to that IS vulnerable. If everyone is acting like it isn't a big deal, then how many vulnerable people who cannot be protected will additionally get it? The whole "focused protection" idea doesn't work well with something that's so transmissible. 

Once the vaccine went mainstream, it changes the risk calculus significantly. Some vaccinated people will get COVID, and some who are vulnerable due to underlying conditions WILL die. But not enough of them to continue keeping the COVID restrictions. Some unvaccinated people will get COVID and some will die, but that's their choice to avoid the vaccine, so it's no longer my responsibility to protect them via keeping COVID restrictions. 

I don't think kids need to be masked any longer. The number of cases are low enough and the risk so low to kids that I don't think masks for children will make a meaningful difference to COVID case numbers and the kids themselves aren't affected much by the virus. I do think it's a good idea for them to get vaccinated, however, as the goal is to continue reducing the spread of the virus to avoid having enough hosts for new variants/strains to emerge that may circumvent the vaccine, or new variants/strains emerging that DUE pose a threat to healthy children. 

The vaccine is a great way to get to real herd immunity, and kids are part of that herd.

Like 94, one of mine is fully vaccinated, the second is halfway there (he just turned 12 last month) and the third is only 8, so she's not currently eligible. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 20, 2021, 01:40:05 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 20, 2021, 01:33:50 PM
I can't explain anyone else's reasoning, but I will explain my own...

Prior to the vaccine becoming available, I didn't really worry that much about getting COVID. I'm 42, healthy, and outside of carrying a little extra weight, don't have any underlying conditions. Yes, that doesn't mean that I *couldn't* get hospitalized or die from COVID, but that the personal risk was quite low.

Yet I did support the idea of masking and social distancing. Because it's a numbers game regarding the spread. If I were to get COVID, who could I spread it to that IS vulnerable. If everyone is acting like it isn't a big deal, then how many vulnerable people who cannot be protected will additionally get it? The whole "focused protection" idea doesn't work well with something that's so transmissible.

Once the vaccine went mainstream, it changes the risk calculus significantly. Some vaccinated people will get COVID, and some who are vulnerable due to underlying conditions WILL die. But not enough of them to continue keeping the COVID restrictions. Some unvaccinated people will get COVID and some will die, but that's their choice to avoid the vaccine, so it's no longer my responsibility to protect them via keeping COVID restrictions.

I don't think kids need to be masked any longer. The number of cases are low enough and the risk so low to kids that I don't think masks for children will make a meaningful difference to COVID case numbers and the kids themselves aren't affected much by the virus. I do think it's a good idea for them to get vaccinated, however, as the goal is to continue reducing the spread of the virus to avoid having enough hosts for new variants/strains to emerge that may circumvent the vaccine, or new variants/strains emerging that DUE pose a threat to healthy children.

The vaccine is a great way to get to real herd immunity, and kids are part of that herd.

Like 94, one of mine is fully vaccinated, the second is halfway there (he just turned 12 last month) and the third is only 8, so she's not currently eligible.
I agree, as that aligns with my thoughts from the beginning.  ( although my 2 daughters are grown, independent, successful and vaccinated).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 20, 2021, 01:42:57 PM
Yup. 100%.

I agree with vax for kids who are eligible, and I don't think masking is necessary for them any longer.  Arguably, it never was, but that's a discussion that will likely land us over on the In The News thread instead of here.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2021, 01:55:20 PM
Florida ain't going back to the lockdowns. No chance. I will look at the latest data and report back.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 20, 2021, 02:07:08 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 20, 2021, 01:42:57 PM
Yup. 100%.

I agree with vax for kids who are eligible, and I don't think masking is necessary for them any longer.  Arguably, it never was, but that's a discussion that will likely land us over on the In The News thread instead of here.
Although... My kids were sickness-free for an entire year... Which meant I or my wife didn't pick up any cold from the little petri dishes either... 

Maybe there's something to this mask stuff for kids :57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2021, 02:07:12 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/G6OCVkN.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/M49JJxZ.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 20, 2021, 02:10:10 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 20, 2021, 02:07:08 PM
Although... My kids were sickness-free for an entire year... Which meant I or my wife didn't pick up any cold from the little petri dishes either...

Maybe there's something to this mask stuff for kids :57:

Maybe?  My kids really don't ever get sick, so I didn't notice any difference.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 20, 2021, 02:18:53 PM
Oh yeah, I don't think I ever mentioned it here... speaking of not ever getting sick, before we got my daughter her first vax shot, I asked her pediatrician to run an antibody test on her.  And, she was positive for C19 antibodies.  She never once complained about feeling badly, she hasn't felt sick in many many years, so I suppose she'd had an asymptomatic case at some point earlier this year.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 20, 2021, 02:59:51 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 20, 2021, 02:18:53 PM
Oh yeah, I don't think I ever mentioned it here... speaking of not ever getting sick, before we got my daughter her first vax shot, I asked her pediatrician to run an antibody test on her.  And, she was positive for C19 antibodies.  She never once complained about feeling badly, she hasn't felt sick in many many years, so I suppose she'd had an asymptomatic case at some point earlier this year.
Hmm... Very interesting.

I assume that my kids have not had it--at least not prior to widespread vaccination. Between splitting time between two households and occasionally seeing grandparents on both sides, I find it highly unlikely that they wouldn't have spread it to SOMEONE that would have had a symptomatic case. 

I suppose it's possible, but I think unlikely for mine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2021, 03:04:26 PM
Antibodies last roughly 3-5 months, apparently. It's what your body does while it has them that matters. Mine were gone after 4 months or so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 20, 2021, 03:27:34 PM
I haven't heard of threats to require masks or lockdown public places

the science and specific stats are not being offered to encourage more folks to be vaccinated, I presume 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 20, 2021, 03:32:29 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 20, 2021, 03:27:34 PM
I haven't heard of threats to require masks or lockdown public places

the science and specific stats are not being offered to encourage more folks to be vaccinated, I presume
Los Angeles County has reinstated indoor mask requirements, vaccinated or not.

The LA County Sheriff said they won't enforce it because it's not backed by science. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 20, 2021, 03:34:57 PM
thankfully, I'm a long way from LA county

also, thankful the Sheriff has some sense
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 20, 2021, 03:38:18 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 20, 2021, 03:32:29 PM
Los Angeles County has reinstated indoor mask requirements, vaccinated or not.

The LA County Sheriff said they won't enforce it because it's not backed by science.

Doesnt make sense as the California hospitalization stats dont support this kind of reaction
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 20, 2021, 03:51:49 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 20, 2021, 03:38:18 PM
Doesnt make sense as the California hospitalization stats dont support this kind of reaction
Agreed. 

Just find it odd because typically it's places like Orange County and the inland SoCal counties, and then the rural counties in the central valley or NorCal that have fought against the restrictions.

The LA County Sheriff was all in during the previous restrictions, so to break ranks now is pretty significant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 20, 2021, 04:16:31 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 20, 2021, 02:59:51 PM
Hmm... Very interesting.

I assume that my kids have not had it--at least not prior to widespread vaccination. Between splitting time between two households and occasionally seeing grandparents on both sides, I find it highly unlikely that they wouldn't have spread it to SOMEONE that would have had a symptomatic case.

I suppose it's possible, but I think unlikely for mine.

Children passing it to adults isn't really common-- viral loads and all.  If it did happen, the viral load would be small enough that an asymptomatic case wouldn't be surprising, and you'd never have known.

It had to have happened sometime in the Spring, so all I can think is she got it from another child at school.  Which is also pretty rare as well, but it happens, obviously.

I haven't tested my son yet, but I might do it before we get him vaccinated in September.  If he ever had it, it was also asymptomatic.




Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 20, 2021, 04:47:24 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 20, 2021, 04:16:31 PM
Children passing it to adults isn't really common-- viral loads and all.  If it did happen, the viral load would be small enough that an asymptomatic case wouldn't be surprising, and you'd never have known.

It had to have happened sometime in the Spring, so all I can think is she got it from another child at school.  Which is also pretty rare as well, but it happens, obviously.

I haven't tested my son yet, but I might do it before we get him vaccinated in September.  If he ever had it, it was also asymptomatic.
Yeah, and if I was in a situation where it was just my wife and I and the kids, and they weren't splitting time between households or seeing extended family as regularly as they did, I could completely buy that we all could have been exposed and been asymptomatic.

I feel like in our situation, there are just too many people and too much interaction, that *someone* would have gotten a symptomatic case. 

Especially as we don't live in a palatial Round Rock mansion where each family member has their own wing of the compound to themselves--I don't care how low the viral load is, it's spreading in a 1200 sf house with 5 people and a dog!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 20, 2021, 04:58:16 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 20, 2021, 04:47:24 PM
Yeah, and if I was in a situation where it was just my wife and I and the kids, and they weren't splitting time between households or seeing extended family as regularly as they did, I could completely buy that we all could have been exposed and been asymptomatic.

I feel like in our situation, there are just too many people and too much interaction, that *someone* would have gotten a symptomatic case.

Especially as we don't live in a palatial Round Rock mansion where each family member has their own wing of the compound to themselves--I don't care how low the viral load is, it's spreading in a 1200 sf house with 5 people and a dog!
Ha!

Cedar Park, not Round Rock. :)


I will say that living in this house that is otherwise WAY too big for us, worked out pretty well during the darkest depths of the pandemic, when the kids were doing online-only school, my wife had been furloughed, and I was still trying to do my day-job, all from the house.  There's plenty of room to spread out here, that's for sure. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on July 21, 2021, 01:22:52 AM
I found this video which made me feel badly for the kids in college who missed a year of participating in band and doing something they probably loved. It is a nice tribute video. Not to mention, some of them would have benefited from more marching.

Virtual Game Day - Pregame - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXepdyVfZ1E)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 21, 2021, 08:38:13 AM
One dose of Johnson & Johnson COVID vaccine is ineffective against delta variant, study suggests - Baltimore Sun (https://www.baltimoresun.com/coronavirus/ct-aud-nw-nyt-johnson-and-johnson-vaccine-delta-variant-20210720-firar53ytzdc7hewcdvqhm7jdm-story.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 21, 2021, 08:58:58 AM
Well that's not good news.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 21, 2021, 09:00:34 AM
I think this explains the spikes and breakthroughs in the UK. 13 Million people here in the US have also had the J&J.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 21, 2021, 09:04:46 AM
Maybe it's a good thing that J&J was paused here, which undermined its credibility and all but killed demand for it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 21, 2021, 09:19:03 AM
glad I got Pfizer by chance
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 21, 2021, 09:29:30 AM
one of the native reservations here just mandated masks

active cases in the county are up from 15 a couple weeks ago to 45 last week
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 21, 2021, 09:50:55 AM
The proper way to report that increase from 15 to 45 is


ACTIVE CASES TRIPLE
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 21, 2021, 09:56:56 AM
with absolutely no mention of hospitalizations
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 21, 2021, 10:07:05 AM
I keep an eye on France and the picture is not looking  good.  Macron has proposed a lock down for anyone without proof of vax.

A lot of countries are apparently in trouble now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 21, 2021, 10:25:43 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 21, 2021, 09:56:56 AM
with absolutely no mention of hospitalizations

so far Hospitalizations remain low
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 21, 2021, 10:27:38 AM
correct, nothing to see here

just get the vaccine, is the message from media and government

because, cases are up
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 21, 2021, 11:49:06 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 21, 2021, 10:27:38 AM
correct, nothing to see here

just get the vaccine, is the message from media and government

because, cases are up
Wow. Amazing how different we see this message.  Mad mandates, vaccine passports. This is what I am seeing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 21, 2021, 11:56:51 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 21, 2021, 11:49:06 AM
Wow. Amazing how different we see this message.  Mad mandates, vaccine passports. This is what I am seeing.
what makes you think we dont see the same thing

we are just saying an increase in positives with little increase in hospitalizations or deaths is not like the old days BV

before vaccine
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 21, 2021, 12:37:37 PM
in my opinion it was always about hospitalizations and deaths

flatten the curve

don't over run the hospitals

but, that's just my opinion

someone having the virus with no or minor symptoms isn't the issue
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 21, 2021, 12:55:06 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 21, 2021, 09:50:55 AM
The proper way to report that increase from 15 to 45 is
I saw news about a rise in reported crimes against Asians and searched for the figures, and they were something like 78 going to 188 or somesuch.  This is a common media malady.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 21, 2021, 01:37:28 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 21, 2021, 11:56:51 AM
what makes you think we dont see the same thing

we are just saying an increase in positives with little increase in hospitalizations or deaths is not like the old days BV

before vaccine
He said “the media and government message is just get the vaccine”.  False. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 21, 2021, 01:39:11 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 21, 2021, 12:37:37 PM
in my opinion it was always about hospitalizations and deaths

flatten the curve

don't over run the hospitals

but, that's just my opinion

someone having the virus with no or minor symptoms isn't the issue
Well, yeah...

But pre-vaccine, there was a significant correlation between case numbers and the resulting hospitalizations and deaths. So rising cases was a leading indicator / proxy for increases in hospitalizations and deaths.

With the vaccine, it's still possible for one to contract the virus [albeit much less likely] but one is VERY unlikely to end up in the hospital or morgue as a result of that infection. So I don't think that post-vaccine case counts will be anywhere near as strong of a leading indicator or proxy for what will happen to hospitalizations and deaths. It will still be there, but the size of the effect is diminished.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 21, 2021, 01:49:37 PM
yes, but media is still reporting case counts to encourage folks to get the vaccine

or perhaps because the media is simply clueless and lazy
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 21, 2021, 02:23:01 PM
I'd also state that one of the BIGGEST reasons that the case count and hospitalization/death counts will no longer track as they once did is that the group of people who is choosing not to get vaccinated is disproportionately the group that is least likely to die anyway...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/

Under age 40, there have been <10K deaths attributed to COVID, but that's roughly half the population of the country. >590K deaths happened in the other half. 

In California, roughly 80% of those over 50 have been either fully or partially vaccinated by now. Slightly less (~67%) of those 18-49 have been vaccinated, and I would be surprised if there isn't some skew that those in the 35-49 range aren't vaccinated at a higher rate than those in the 18-34 range...

Those most vulnerable have typically been those most likely to get vaccinated, so the case rates will even more disproportionately be affecting the population who may have chosen not to get the shot because they're healthy and not particularly vulnerable. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 21, 2021, 02:42:13 PM
FL is at 72 percent fully vaccinated for age 40 and up. It's at 82 percent for 60+.

It's the <40 that are hesitating.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 21, 2021, 02:45:07 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 21, 2021, 02:42:13 PM
FL is at 72 percent fully vaccinated for age 40 and up. It's at 82 percent for 60+.

It's the <40 that are hesitating.
That’s very important data. Do you have that for all of US?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 21, 2021, 02:48:59 PM
I'm sure it's out there somewhere. I'll poke around and see.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 22, 2021, 09:23:54 AM
China cannot accept the World Health Organization’s plan for the second phase of a study into the origins of COVID-19, a senior Chinese health official said Thursday.

Zeng Yixin, the vice minister of the National Health Commission, said he was “rather taken aback” that the plan includes further investigation of the theory that the virus might have leaked from a Chinese lab.

He dismissed the lab leak idea as a rumor that runs counter to common sense and science.

“It is impossible for us to accept such an origin-tracing plan,” he said at a news conference called to address the COVID-19 origins issue.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on July 22, 2021, 09:37:37 AM
My aunt and her beau are dealing with COVID.  She won't take the vaccine despite losing her brother, my dad, to covid.  She was pretty sick for 3-4 days and had to be hospitalized.  From what I understand her boyfriend is still in the hospital.  She's early 70's he's mid 70's.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 22, 2021, 05:45:54 PM


(https://i.imgur.com/O2cvsuN.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 22, 2021, 05:47:09 PM
Is the vertical axis days from start?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 22, 2021, 05:51:03 PM
Yes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 22, 2021, 05:52:54 PM
I'm surprised at the number of known cases that grew over the second time frame.  Am I correct that the apparent death rate is about 1% in the second wave?  And far lower in the third?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 22, 2021, 05:57:13 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/yFEJfFf.png)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 22, 2021, 06:00:05 PM
A little surprised by the case rates the second time as well. 

Given vaccination, you wouldn't expect case rates to go as high--but then again during the second wave there was probably a lot more of a lockdown and more careful behavior. During the third wave people are probably mostly going about their lives more normally. 

I think the idea is that because the most vulnerable people are the ones most likely to get vaccinated, that the people who are contributing all these new cases are much less likely to die from it.

I tried to click the source link (got this graphic from a different site), but it seemed to be paywalled and I just didn't want to mess with it.

It's here if anyone wants to read it: https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/2021/07/how-uk-s-covid-19-vaccine-rollout-has-dramatically-reduced-deaths

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 22, 2021, 06:51:39 PM
"I think the idea is that because the most vulnerable people are the ones most likely to get vaccinated, that the people who are contributing all these new cases are much less likely to die from it."


That makes sense to me, the younger invulnerables are catching it, but rarely dying.  US hosp rates are climbing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 22, 2021, 07:42:12 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 22, 2021, 06:51:39 PM
"I think the idea is that because the most vulnerable people are the ones most likely to get vaccinated, that the people who are contributing all these new cases are much less likely to die from it."


That makes sense to me, the younger invulnerables are catching it, but rarely dying.  US hosp rates are climbing.
Well apparently the UK is doing better about getting their oldest and most vulnerable people vaccinated than we are:


(https://i.imgur.com/FVR6oFP.png)

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55274833

I don't think we've quite done as well in the US... We have a decent population of older people who don't trust or haven't gotten the vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 23, 2021, 07:45:57 AM
Pretty amazing numbers here. 97 percent of all Covid deaths in the US were complicated by 2 or more underlying conditions. 25 percent had 10 (!!!) or more.

(https://i.imgur.com/3HTQSdP.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on July 23, 2021, 08:05:37 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 23, 2021, 07:45:57 AM
Pretty amazing numbers here. 97 percent of all Covid deaths in the US were complicated by 2 or more underlying conditions. 25 percent had 10 (!!!) or more.

(https://i.imgur.com/3HTQSdP.png)
My question here is always the same: how broad a category are “underlying conditions”?

We can throw it around, but without some actual knowledge of the list, it might mean something or it might mean little to nothing. Like, is being “overweight” a condition? If so, it’s a pretty low bar, relatively.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 23, 2021, 08:16:46 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/dXUZkGb.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 23, 2021, 09:50:58 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on July 23, 2021, 08:05:37 AM
My question here is always the same: how broad a category are “underlying conditions”?

We can throw it around, but without some actual knowledge of the list, it might mean something or it might mean little to nothing. Like, is being “overweight” a condition? If so, it’s a pretty low bar, relatively.
I was surprised that I was eligible for the vaccine earlier because of my "overweight" qualification.

I'm certainly not skinny or obese.  5'10" 195 lbs
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on July 23, 2021, 09:53:10 AM
At 6'5" I would have to be below 200# to not be overweight. 

If I ever tip the scale below 200 pounds I am seriously ill.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 23, 2021, 10:07:16 AM
I am technically still considered obese (very close to not being), but I have a defined waste and carry a lot of extra muscle on my frame. I don't have a "gut" anymore. My doctor does not consider me fat. I'm around 19 percent. My goal is 15 percent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 23, 2021, 10:19:14 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on July 23, 2021, 09:53:10 AM
At 6'5" I would have to be below 200# to not be overweight.

If I ever tip the scale below 200 pounds I am seriously ill.
Same here. I'm at 265# now, which is a bit high, but anything under 240# and I start to look ill. 

To get my BMI under 25 I'd need to cut off a limb. 

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 23, 2021, 10:07:16 AM
I am technically still considered obese (very close to not being), but I have a defined waste and carry a lot of extra muscle on my frame. I don't have a "gut" anymore. My doctor does not consider me fat. I'm around 19 percent. My goal is 15 percent.

My doctor told me flat out that BMI doesn't apply to me because my muscle mass is well outside the normal range too. He still wanted me to drop a few pounds, but said that BMI shouldn't EVER be my metric to work from. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 23, 2021, 10:20:51 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 23, 2021, 09:50:58 AM
I was surprised that I was eligible for the vaccine earlier because of my "overweight" qualification.

I'm certainly not skinny or obese.  5'10" 195 lbs
I thought I was going to qualify for "early" due to underlying conditions because my BMI was about 31, so technically I'm obese.

Then CA clarified and said that you only qualified for early vaccine if your BMI was >=40... So I had to wait.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 23, 2021, 10:37:04 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 23, 2021, 10:20:51 AM
I thought I was going to qualify for "early" due to underlying conditions because my BMI was about 31, so technically I'm obese.

Then CA clarified and said that you only qualified for early vaccine if your BMI was >=40... So I had to wait.
are you sure they werent talking about your BMW
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 23, 2021, 11:08:00 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 23, 2021, 10:19:14 AM


My doctor told me flat out that BMI doesn't apply to me because my muscle mass is well outside the normal range too. He still wanted me to drop a few pounds, but said that BMI shouldn't EVER be my metric to work from.
Exactly. Unfortunately, for things like life insurance and that, this is one metric they look at.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on July 26, 2021, 02:07:42 AM
We are very low in cases in NE Iowa. But, there are so many mass meetings lately, by end of August I am thinking Iowa will be a hot spot. My wife's family had at least 60-people in a tiny room with inadequate ventilation this weekend. I know some of them are vaccine resistant.

We had the Delaware County Fair with over 50,000 in attendance a week ago. Only one-half of people over age 12 are vaccinated here. I think about 20% of our county had COVID, but a percentage of those, including me, are vaccinated.

There is very little testing right now and very, very few testing positive here. Mask mandates are outlawed. Requiring proof of vaccination is outlawed - what happened to the 1st Amendment?

I suspect Eastern Iowa will see an uptick. Hope not. We'll see.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on July 26, 2021, 07:53:36 AM
So a few pages back I told of my aunt and her boyfriend who both had covid. She was in the hospital for 2-3 days and then he had to go in. Well he had some sort of cardiac event while in the hospital and now he’s essentially brain dead. He’s being kept alive on life support but essentially he’s gone. He’s in his mid 70’s, she’s probably early 70’s. Neither have been vaccinated because they were afraid of the vaccine. 

So sad. He was a good guy. 

This makes about 10 people I personally know who have died of covid. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 26, 2021, 08:11:55 AM
Wow. 10 people?

Man, I don't know any.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 26, 2021, 08:13:53 AM
all of this covid stuff is very sad

the vaccine in my simple mind just seems like a logical choice

not saying I'm right or wrong, just my opinion weighing pros and cons
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on July 26, 2021, 09:58:20 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 26, 2021, 08:11:55 AM
Wow. 10 people?

Man, I don't know any.
Yeah, I'm not really sure why that is.  I do have a very large extended family and living in the same small town for a long time we know lots and lots of people.  Pretty much we know almost everybody in our town and in our area.  And maybe we're all just a bunch of unhealthy mofo's at that?  But most of the folks have been older and had some kind of health issue, but still the number of people I know who have died from Covid seems high compared to other people I talk to, even people in our area or people at work.

We just received word from work we are putting off our recognition event due to the recent uptick in covid.  I expect any day to start back with the mask wearing etc.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 26, 2021, 10:53:09 AM
Vaccine rates: Vaccinations have been a popular talking point in Indianapolis.

Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz says "not quite 70%" of his team is vaccinated. Of the coaches that provided data, the Hawkeyes are towards the bottom in the league in vaccine rates.


"It’s going to become a big deal pretty soon that we are all vaccinated," Iowa wide receiver Tyrone Tracy Jr. said. "If you aren’t, you’re really going to pay when the season comes around.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on July 26, 2021, 12:02:29 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 23, 2021, 09:50:58 AM
I was surprised that I was eligible for the vaccine earlier because of my "overweight" qualification.

I'm certainly not skinny or obese.  5'10" 195 lbs
Ruh-Roh I guess I qualify as a tub also,funny no one has taken to calling me fatty.A disagreeable asshole perhaps but never Fatty
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on July 26, 2021, 12:17:03 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 23, 2021, 10:07:16 AM
I am technically still considered obese (very close to not being), but I have a defined waste and carry a lot of extra muscle on my frame. I don't have a "gut" anymore. My doctor does not consider me fat. I'm around 19 percent. My goal is 15 percent.
I have questioned alot of who or what decides about Cholestrol,weight,sugar(sometimes) etc.Years ago 250 cholesterol was borderline,then it was like 220 now below that.I know some vegans that are there @ 200 or below but then have to take supplements for protein or sumsuch.Alot of this IMHO is driven by Big Pharma who got big by all these suggestions.I eat alot of veggies/greens/fruits with about 4-6 oz of some meat serving per day some times vegetable proteins.But I don't march to their tune unless it's about sugar which seems borderline,also some Beer for probiotic reasons.And a sammich eaten over the sink - proper like
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 30, 2021, 04:29:39 PM
My wife wants us to go back to indoor masking. I'm not a fan of that idea. So we're compromising; we're going back to indoor masking.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 30, 2021, 04:55:56 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 30, 2021, 04:29:39 PM
My wife wants us to go back to indoor masking. I'm not a fan of that idea. So we're compromising; we're going back to indoor masking.



Are you wearing properly fitted N95 masks?  Because if not, I really don't get it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 30, 2021, 05:03:37 PM
I get this free NYT feed each morning:


Consider these Covid-19 mysteries:

  • In India — where the Delta variant was first identified and caused a huge outbreak — cases have plunged (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/Ws6DdtjDCEVnegVEQvWbZA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRi5lcUP0TaaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMS93b3JsZC9pbmRpYS1jb3ZpZC1jYXNlcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMTA3MzAmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MzY2MzEmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xNTMzNjg5MTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD02NDg2MSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9OGU1ZDJhMmI1ZTQ4YTY5NjU2MTkyY2MzYWYwYTkwMGNXA255dEIKYQIU0gNhzJmkolIRamNkb29tOUBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) over the past two months. A similar drop may now be underway in Britain. There is no clear explanation for these declines.
  • In the U.S., cases started falling rapidly in early January. The decline began before vaccination was widespread (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/Wu1P_P33zP5ctdiosp_P9A~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRi5lcUP0TcaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9jb3ZpZC0xOS12YWNjaW5lLWRvc2VzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIxMDczMCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0zNjYzMSZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTE1MzM2ODkxMCZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTY0ODYxJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0QgphAhTSA2HMmaSiUhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) and did not follow any evident changes in Americans’ Covid attitudes.
  • In March and April, the Alpha variant helped cause a sharp rise in cases in the upper Midwest and Canada. That outbreak seemed poised to spread to the rest of North America — but did not.
  • This spring, caseloads were not consistently higher (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/Cc7kO7Q5ex3b0sxpYeIDpA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRi5lcUP0TRaHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0dGVyLmNvbS9qZW5uaWZlcm51enpvL3N0YXR1cy8xMzk0MTAzNjg2NjE2NTY3ODA4P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMTA3MzAmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MzY2MzEmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xNTMzNjg5MTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD02NDg2MSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9OGU1ZDJhMmI1ZTQ4YTY5NjU2MTkyY2MzYWYwYTkwMGNXA255dEIKYQIU0gNhzJmkolIRamNkb29tOUBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) in parts of the U.S. that had relaxed masking and social distancing measures (like Florida and Texas) than in regions that remained vigilant.
  • Large parts of Africa and Asia (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/d9be_narzXFa8n_P2Dn7Fg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRi5lcUP0TwaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8wMy8wOC9icmllZmluZy9vcHJhaC1tZWdoYW4taW50ZXJ2aWV3LWJpZGVuLXN0aW11bHVzLWJpbGwuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjEwNzMwJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTM2NjMxJm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9MTUzMzY4OTEwJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NjQ4NjEmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPThlNWQyYTJiNWU0OGE2OTY1NjE5MmNjM2FmMGE5MDBjVwNueXRCCmECFNIDYcyZpKJSEWpjZG9vbTlAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) still have not experienced outbreaks as big as those in Europe, North America and South America.
How do we solve these mysteries? Michael Osterholm, who runs an infectious disease research center at the University of Minnesota, suggests that people keep in mind one overriding idea: humility.
“We’ve ascribed far too much human authority over the virus,” he told me.
‘Much, much milder’
Over the course of this pandemic, I have found one of my early assumptions especially hard to shake. It’s one that many other people seem to share — namely, that a virus always keeps spreading, eventually infecting almost the entire population, unless human beings take actions to stop it. And this idea does have crucial aspects of truth. Social distancing and especially vaccination can save lives.
But much of the ebb and flow of a pandemic cannot be explained by changes in human behavior. That was true with influenza a century ago, and it is true with Covid now. An outbreak often fizzles mysteriously, like a forest fire that fails to jump from one patch of trees to another.
The experience with Alpha in the Midwest this spring is telling:
(https://ci5.googleusercontent.com/proxy/cQ_2tfgVifEGyGVg7oyiTrIvWJ-0gJtvF4hc2120xFYn38JUTG6ZdSNFfnKy_qFqZqyHkDyqnZt0-bNXMmttWaDhlCXkwsu8Tl3pp4Z34sqCh03oMA8zTQwG3pqg4TiFBEiXogjcpHVKDSn-aV__u71pdnLpFq5f2OCSti8S0tsCGZjHMw=s0-d-e1-ft#https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021/07/29/briefing/oakImage-1627612337397/oakImage-1627612337397-articleLarge.png)


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 30, 2021, 05:04:11 PM

Even Osterholm said that he had assumed the spring surge would spread from Michigan and his home state of Minnesota to the entire U.S. It did not. It barely spread to nearby Iowa and Ohio. Whatever the reasons, the pattern shows that the mental model many of us have — in which only human intervention can have a major effect on caseloads — is wrong.

Britain has become another example. The Delta variant is even more contagious than Alpha, and it seemed as though it might infect every unvaccinated British resident after it began spreading in May. Some experts predicted that the number of daily cases would hit 200,000 (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/VNauj5i3gVSsViVwNU4cSw~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRi5lcUP4QmAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnRoZWd1YXJkaWFuLmNvbS93b3JsZC8yMDIxL2p1bC8xOC91ay1jb3ZpZC1jYXNlcy1jb3VsZC1oaXQtMjAwMDAwLWEtZGF5LXNheXMtbmVpbC1mZXJndXNvbi1zY2llbnRpc3QtYmVoaW5kLWxvY2tkb3duLXN0cmF0ZWd5LWVuZ2xhbmQ_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIxMDczMCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0zNjYzMSZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTE1MzM2ODkxMCZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTY0ODYxJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0QgphAhTSA2HMmaSiUhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~), more than three times the country’s previous peak. Instead, cases peaked — for now — around 47,000, before falling below 30,000 this week.
“The current Delta wave in the U.K. is turning out to be much, much milder than we anticipated,” wrote (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/jV0NX3K0QJijPbjDpVQBKw~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRi5lcUP4QLAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmNuYmMuY29tLzIwMjEvMDcvMjgvdWstY292aWQtY2FzZXMtYXJlLWZhbGxpbmctZGVzcGl0ZS10aGUtZWFzaW5nLW9mLWxvY2tkb3ducy1zdXJwcmlzaW5nLXRoZS1leHBlcnRzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIxMDczMCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0zNjYzMSZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTE1MzM2ODkxMCZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTY0ODYxJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0QgphAhTSA2HMmaSiUhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) David Mackie, J.P. Morgan’s chief European economist.
(https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/CseLTGeRirkVrymJn8BSiRf08jLxuQOpthonEc9PcUeiZxWT1vDGDd83wkyFv8CIi_PakX1MwGyMVSVVvF14-cj7kSjOoFfWlJCc6AffoDGDzoYjuTja54rMIYPF06zAF_qNh-AAlZ6q8TJnjiLjx4gQRgHe5eUVC2yx0jnL5ERTOriZCA=s0-d-e1-ft#https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021/07/29/briefing/oakImage-1627612484630/oakImage-1627612484630-articleLarge.png)
True, you can find plenty of supposed explanations, including the end of the European soccer tournament, the timing of school vacations and the Britain’s notoriously late-arriving summer weather, as Mark Landler, The Times’s London bureau chief, has noted (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/PNDmekESPHJzc4VMWihYGg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRi5lcUP0TwaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8wNy8yOC93b3JsZC9ldXJvcGUvdWstY29yb25hdmlydXMtdmFjY2luYXRpb24tZnJlZWRvbS1kYXkuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjEwNzMwJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTM2NjMxJm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9MTUzMzY4OTEwJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NjQ4NjEmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPThlNWQyYTJiNWU0OGE2OTY1NjE5MmNjM2FmMGE5MDBjVwNueXRCCmECFNIDYcyZpKJSEWpjZG9vbTlAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA). But none of the explanations seem nearly big enough to explain the decline, especially when you consider that India has also experienced a boom and bust in caseloads. India, of course, did not play in Europe’s soccer championship and is not known for cool June weather.
‘Rip through’
A more plausible explanation appears to be that Delta spreads very quickly at first and, for some unknown set of reasons, peters out long before a society has reached herd immunity. As Andy Slavitt, a former Covid adviser to President Biden, told me, “It seems to rip through really fast and infect the people it’s going to infect.” The most counterintuitive idea here is that an outbreak can fade even though many people remain vulnerable to Covid.
That’s not guaranteed to happen everywhere, and there probably will be more variants after Delta. Remember: Covid behaves in mysterious ways. But Americans should not assume that Delta is destined to cause months of rising caseloads. Nor should they assume that a sudden decline, if one starts this summer, fits a tidy narrative that attributes the turnaround to rising vaccination and mask wearing.
“These surges have little to do with what humans do,” Osterholm argues. “Only recently, with vaccines, have we begun to have a real impact.”


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 30, 2021, 05:04:44 PM

I don’t want anyone to think that Osterholm is making a nihilist argument. Human responses do make a difference: Masks and social distancing can slow (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/nd6xH192vUeJ-cXEd5Eedw~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRi5lcUP0THaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubmF0dXJlLmNvbS9hcnRpY2xlcy9kNDE1ODYtMDIwLTAyODAxLTg_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIxMDczMCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0zNjYzMSZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTE1MzM2ODkxMCZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTY0ODYxJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0QgphAhTSA2HMmaSiUhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) the spread of the virus, and vaccination can end (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/UTXJbtLdI1M25xpcDzmJ6w~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRi5lcUP0TfaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8wNy8yOS9icmllZmluZy9tYXNrLW1hbmRhdGVzLWNvcm9uYXZpcnVzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIxMDczMCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0zNjYzMSZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTE1MzM2ODkxMCZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTY0ODYxJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0QgphAhTSA2HMmaSiUhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) a pandemic.

The most important step has been the vaccination of many older people. As a result, total British deaths have risen only modestly this summer, while deaths and hospitalizations remain rarer (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/k85RXnNdQnw8JTjlq1mEkQ~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRi5lcUP0TkaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8wNi8yOC9icmllZmluZy9jb3ZpZC1jYXNlcy1yaXNpbmctcmVkLWFtZXJpY2EuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjEwNzMwJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTM2NjMxJm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9MTUzMzY4OTEwJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NjQ4NjEmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPThlNWQyYTJiNWU0OGE2OTY1NjE5MmNjM2FmMGE5MDBjVwNueXRCCmECFNIDYcyZpKJSEWpjZG9vbTlAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) in heavily vaccinated parts of the U.S. than in less vaccinated ones.
But Osterholm’s plea for humility does have policy implications. It argues for prioritizing vaccination over every other strategy. It also reminds us to avoid believing that we can always know which behaviors create risks.
That lesson has particular relevance to schools. Many of the Covid rules that school districts are enacting seem overly confident about what matters, Osterholm told me. Ventilation seems helpful, and masking children may be. Yet reopening schools unavoidably involves risk. The alternative — months more of lost learning and social isolation — almost certainly involves more risk and greater costs to children. Fortunately, school employees and teenagers can be vaccinated, and severe childhood Covid remains extremely rare (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/sH6WIdvqKvIT-RArS7XKlw~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRi5lcUP0TaaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8wNi8xOC9icmllZmluZy9raWRzLWNvdmlkLWFuZC1kZWx0YS5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMTA3MzAmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MzY2MzEmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xNTMzNjg5MTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD02NDg2MSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9OGU1ZDJhMmI1ZTQ4YTY5NjU2MTkyY2MzYWYwYTkwMGNXA255dEIKYQIU0gNhzJmkolIRamNkb29tOUBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~).
We are certainly not powerless in the face of Covid. We can reduce its risks, just as we can reduce the risks from driving, biking, swimming and many other everyday activities. But we cannot eliminate them. “We’re not in nearly as much control as we think are,” Osterholm said.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 30, 2021, 05:07:31 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 30, 2021, 04:55:56 PM
Are you wearing properly fitted N95 masks?  Because if not, I really don't get it?
She's apparently gone back to N95 at her office. That said, I think that's a red herring argument. While a standard cloth mask won't necessarily be perfect, especially in a long-duration interaction in a confined space with someone with the virus, I think it has some benefit to either prevent infection or reduce viral load that you're exposed to, which can help the body's immune system post-vacc handle it better.

When she wanted to do this I asked her (because I thought it might have been driven by her own fear and sentiments) what the doctors she works with are doing in their personal lives. They're about our age, healthy, and [obv] vaccinated. Apparently they've gone back to masking in public indoor spaces as well. 

I still don't agree. So far I've seen that although there is a small possibility of breakthrough infection, it's HIGHLY unlikely to have anything other than mild symptoms for the vaccinated, especially for someone like me who is otherwise healthy and not yet getting solicited by the AARP for membership. So I'm not concerned even about infection. 

But, pissing off my wife will have worse side effects than a breakthrough infection, so here we are.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 30, 2021, 05:19:57 PM
Oh yeah, I certainly wouldn't go against my wife's wishes.  Or at least, not on something as easy to do as mask-wearing.

Personally, I'll wait for someone to deliver THE SCIENCE that tells me that wearing a cloth or surgical mask provides statistically significant incremental protection above and beyond the vaccine, for either transmission of, or contraction of, the virus.  Until that information comes forth, I'll continue to skip the masks, except of course inside buildings/businesses that require it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 30, 2021, 05:26:24 PM
I figure masks offer a modest level of protection for the person not infected near a person infected and contagious perhaps talking directly at them or sneezing/coughing.

We try and cover our mouth and turn away when we cough, but it doesn't always happen.  And if someone is talking to you at close range you can expect some droplets likely get on your face, and a mask would mitigate that to a degree.  I doubt an N95 is much more effective than a simple cloth covering.  They aren't magic of course.

A fitted respirator would offer pretty good protection for the person wearing it.

How well do face masks protect against coronavirus? - Mayo Clinic (https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-mask/art-20485449)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 30, 2021, 05:30:12 PM
I make it a point not to get spit on by other people, so I'm comfortable with my conclusions.

And again, I'm not asking for proof that masks stop transmission.  There's evidence of that.  Not great evidence, not the great quantity of peer-reviewed studies that I thought we'd have 18 months into the pandemic, but at least some reasonable anecdotal evidence.

But I'm not asking for that.  I'm asking for scientific evidence that there is a statistically significant improvement above and beyond the vaccine.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 30, 2021, 05:36:15 PM
I'd opine the vaccine is many orders of magnitude more effective than any mask.

Distancing is probably pretty effective also.  We're back on mask wearing in the elevator here now, as of today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 30, 2021, 05:43:17 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 30, 2021, 05:36:15 PM
I'd opine the vaccine is many orders of magnitude more effective than any mask.

Distancing is probably pretty effective also.  We're back on mask wearing in the elevator here now, as of today.
Indeed, as would I! :)

In somewhat related news, last night I went to the first work-related gathering with my team/peers since February of 2020.  Also the first time I've met my "new" boss outside of video conferencing, and he took over last November.

We met for beers and food at Pinthouse Pizza.  It was refreshing to be able to socialize with my team again.

We were eating and drinking, and not wearing masks, for the record.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 30, 2021, 05:52:05 PM
But much of the ebb and flow of a pandemic cannot be explained by changes in human behavior. That was true with influenza a century ago, and it is true with Covid now. An outbreak often fizzles mysteriously, like a forest fire that fails to jump from one patch of trees to another.

Much like climate change
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 30, 2021, 06:54:28 PM
In another dispiriting setback for the nation’s efforts to stamp out the coronavirus, scientists who studied a big COVID-19 outbreak in Massachusetts concluded that vaccinated people who got so-called breakthrough infections carried about the same amount of the coronavirus as those who did not get the shots.

Health officials on Friday released details of that research, which was key in this week’s decision by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to recommend that vaccinated people return to wearing masks indoors in parts of the U.S. where the delta variant is fueling infection surges. The authors said the findings suggest that the CDC’s mask guidance should be expanded to include the entire country, even outside of hot spots.

The findings have the potential to upend past thinking about how the disease is spread. Previously, vaccinated people who got infected were thought to have low levels of virus and to be unlikely to pass it to others. But the new data shows that is not the case with the delta variant.

The outbreak in Provincetown — a seaside tourist spot on Cape Cod in the county with Massachusetts’ highest vaccination rate — has so far included more than 900 cases. About three-quarters of them were people who were fully vaccinated.


https://apnews.com/article/science-health-coronavirus-pandemic-d9504519a8ae081f785ca012b5ef84d1 (https://apnews.com/article/science-health-coronavirus-pandemic-d9504519a8ae081f785ca012b5ef84d1)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 30, 2021, 07:16:54 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 30, 2021, 06:54:28 PM
In another dispiriting setback for the nation’s efforts to stamp out the coronavirus, scientists who studied a big COVID-19 outbreak in Massachusetts concluded that vaccinated people who got so-called breakthrough infections carried about the same amount of the coronavirus as those who did not get the shots.

Health officials on Friday released details of that research, which was key in this week’s decision by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to recommend that vaccinated people return to wearing masks indoors in parts of the U.S. where the delta variant is fueling infection surges. The authors said the findings suggest that the CDC’s mask guidance should be expanded to include the entire country, even outside of hot spots.

The findings have the potential to upend past thinking about how the disease is spread. Previously, vaccinated people who got infected were thought to have low levels of virus and to be unlikely to pass it to others. But the new data shows that is not the case with the delta variant.

The outbreak in Provincetown — a seaside tourist spot on Cape Cod in the county with Massachusetts’ highest vaccination rate — has so far included more than 900 cases. About three-quarters of them were people who were fully vaccinated.


https://apnews.com/article/science-health-coronavirus-pandemic-d9504519a8ae081f785ca012b5ef84d1 (https://apnews.com/article/science-health-coronavirus-pandemic-d9504519a8ae081f785ca012b5ef84d1)
the key here is "got the breakthrough infection" 

how many out of how many got a breakthrough infection

until they release that info I really think this is much ado about nothing and is being used politically to require a return to lockdowns
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 30, 2021, 07:27:04 PM
upon further investigation it appears that out of 164 million fully vaccinated aprox 125,000 have gotten a breakthough infection

Aprox 6,000 of these breakthrough cases required hospitalization

of that aprox 1,400 have died

so the question is does this justify returning to a masked locked down society

I dont think so
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on July 30, 2021, 08:56:52 PM
Picking out two highly populated areas of the world - Thailand & Indonesia - where Covid hadn't made a notable impact until later in the game:

(https://i.imgur.com/LSjRfdP.png)


(https://i.imgur.com/Fifijsa.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 30, 2021, 09:01:51 PM
Indonesia is not using the same vaccines as is being used in the US
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 31, 2021, 07:45:41 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 30, 2021, 07:27:04 PM
upon further investigation it appears that out of 164 million fully vaccinated aprox 125,000 have gotten a breakthough infection

Aprox 6,000 of these breakthrough cases required hospitalization

of that aprox 1,400 have died

so the question is does this justify returning to a masked locked down society

I dont think so
So, 0.08% of the fully vaccinated have gotten infected. Of those, critical metrics are:

4.8% hospitalized
1.1% died

So, if you are vaccinated, your risk of hospitalization is 0.003% and your risk of death is 0.0008%.

And we're gonna mask up and lock down again?


Over my maskless dead body.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 31, 2021, 08:26:35 AM
Vax rate in Florida tripled in the past week. State is sitting at 61% now. 

This is good news.

Seems like this delta thing is causing the more reluctant people to start the vax process.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 31, 2021, 08:36:37 AM
If the potted plant would stop releasing illegal immigrants into Texas then Texas might have better numbers
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 31, 2021, 08:55:39 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 31, 2021, 08:36:37 AM
If the potted plant would stop releasing illegal immigrants into Texas then Texas might have better numbers
They are also coming to Florida - by the bus loads. The Fed is sticking them here. I don't know how the 70% number was derived.

Regardless, it's disturbing to me, because they are not being tested before being "distributed" throughout the country.


DeSantis claims 70% of migrants are heading to Florida (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/desantis-claims-70-25-of-migrants-are-heading-to-florida/ar-AAMlSR0)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 31, 2021, 10:01:24 AM
send the vaccine to the border

take the vaccine or go back south
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 31, 2021, 10:06:31 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 31, 2021, 10:01:24 AM
send the vaccine to the border

take the vaccine or go back south
that would require some leadership from Washington DC
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 31, 2021, 10:10:17 AM
or just common sense from politicians 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 31, 2021, 10:14:31 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 31, 2021, 10:10:17 AM
or just common sense from certain politicians
FIFY
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 31, 2021, 10:22:59 AM
you are kidding, right?

besides, the politics thread is that way ---------->
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 31, 2021, 11:00:55 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 31, 2021, 10:22:59 AM
you are kidding, right?

besides, the politics thread is that way ---------->
you started it


I didnt do it 
nobody saw me do it
you cant prove anything
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 31, 2021, 12:22:10 PM
If you children can't keep your damn potted plant and orange man talk somewhere else, I'll put it there for you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on July 31, 2021, 01:06:18 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 31, 2021, 10:01:24 AM
send the vaccine to the border

take the vaccine or go back south
Lock the thread - you get a Yuengling FF
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 31, 2021, 01:09:32 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 31, 2021, 12:22:10 PM
If you children can't keep your damn potted plant and orange man talk somewhere else, I'll put it there for you.
youre a bit touchy today   

maybe a little less coffee
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 31, 2021, 01:14:03 PM
You know the rules on this thread.  Come on man, help a brother out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 31, 2021, 01:35:56 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 31, 2021, 01:14:03 PM
You know the rules on this thread.  Come on man, help a brother out.
come on man

wait is that political?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on July 31, 2021, 02:07:07 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 31, 2021, 11:00:55 AM
you started it


I didnt do it
nobody saw me do it
you cant prove anything
Always demand proof, people usually give up

https://youtu.be/2Gkiw7zpULo
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 31, 2021, 02:09:36 PM
The wife has a potted lemon plant, a "Meyer lemon", which is a cross with an orange, I think, or something.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 31, 2021, 03:55:38 PM
I had a lemon tree at the previous house... I miss that.

All that vitamin C might help ward off Corona... (To bring it back on topic).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 31, 2021, 04:57:39 PM
Our old house has a peach tree.  Produced pretty food fruit most years.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 31, 2021, 05:08:37 PM
Quote from: ELA on July 31, 2021, 02:07:07 PM
Always demand proof, people usually give up

https://youtu.be/2Gkiw7zpULo
This guy is the best.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 01, 2021, 10:41:30 AM
I have a pear tree in the backyard
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 01, 2021, 10:47:40 AM
Florida sees 21,000-plus coronavirus cases Saturday, breaking one-day record | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/health/florida-breaks-record-coronavirus-cases-21000-spike)

This is actually good news to me, as we approach herd immunity. The context isn't there in the article, so I will add some here, from data I could find online.

74 percent of the new cases are among those 50 and under. Of the 26 percent over 50, 96 percent (estimated) of those are unvaccinated. Those 50 and under account for 0.4% of total deaths in Florida.

I do not imagine a lot of fatalities, although there is one area where the hospitals are in a bit of trouble.*

So, it's hot and humid here now, and all the people who want to go to bars/restaurants are inside. 

(We still sit outside whenever we can. We can take the heat and humidity, so long as we are shaded.)

As far as the below, the highest positivity rates of the cases are generally in non-coastal communities, where the vaccination rates are lower. The outliers are generally in North Florida, around Jacksonville. Most of the other major areas are around 70 percent or so. Dade is almost 80 percent now.


* The Florida Hospital Association said Friday that statewide COVID-19 hospitalizations are nearing last year’s peak, and one of the state's largest health care systems, AdventHealth’s Central Florida Division, last week advised it would no longer be conducting non-emergency surgeries in order to free up resources for COVID-19 patients.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 01, 2021, 11:04:20 AM
Spain and the UK MAY have peaked and started down (we all hope).

This thing seems to flare and then abate with no real evidence of any changes.  Hopefully we follow the same track shortly and begin abating.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 01, 2021, 11:13:17 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 01, 2021, 11:04:20 AM
Spain and the UK MAY have peaked and started down (we all hope).

This thing seems to flare and then abate with no real evidence of any changes.  Hopefully we follow the same track shortly and begin abating.
I'm starting to believe that we are going to have peaks and valleys for years to come.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 01, 2021, 03:02:32 PM
This thing is not very predictable and I think there are some things we yet do not understand about it.  I've been suggesting that for a while.

The only trend I've spotted is whatever happens in Europe now is going to happen here in a month or so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 01, 2021, 03:26:39 PM
The former-truck-farming-town-turned-booming-McMansion suburb where I teach is run by people who would rather risk their kids catching COVID (and maybe some teachers dying of it) than to capitulate to the incredibly unreasonable request that they get vaccinated and/or allow the school system to impose masking when appropriate.

So, I think we'll have a bunch of kids get sick (not anyone on the sports teams--they stay home and get virtual education), maybe an old teacher or two die, and we'll finally have to close up shop and go virtual for everyone.

I will be glad to be proven wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 01, 2021, 03:54:50 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 01, 2021, 03:26:39 PM
The former-truck-farming-town-turned-booming-McMansion suburb where I teach is run by people who would rather risk their kids catching COVID (and maybe some teachers dying of it) than to capitulate to the incredibly unreasonable request that they get vaccinated and/or allow the school system to impose masking when appropriate.

So, I think we'll have a bunch of kids get sick (not anyone on the sports teams--they stay home and get virtual education), maybe an old teacher or two die, and we'll finally have to close up shop and go virtual for everyone.

I will be glad to be proven wrong.
Isnt there a rule that you dont vaccinate kids below a certain age

maybe I just dreamed it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 01, 2021, 03:57:29 PM
here is an article about it

https://www.connecticutchildrens.org/coronavirus/when-will-the-covid-19-vaccine-be-available-for-kids-and-will-it-be-safe-for-your-family/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 01, 2021, 03:58:49 PM
I teach in a high school.  The kids are all over 12.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 01, 2021, 04:24:35 PM
so they could get pfizer only until they are 18


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on August 01, 2021, 04:26:40 PM
Well my company just resumed to using masks indoors even if vaccinated just like the cdc recommended. I had hoped we were done with that since about May or so. I’ll have to find a mask to wear as I threw all mine away. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 01, 2021, 04:49:04 PM
Quote from: Gigem on August 01, 2021, 04:26:40 PM
Well my company just resumed to using masks indoors even if vaccinated just like the cdc recommended. I had hoped we were done with that since about May or so. I’ll have to find a mask to wear as I threw all mine away.
thats ridiculous 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 01, 2021, 04:50:37 PM
I got used to wearing a mask, and then unused to it, now it's a bit annoying to me.

We're supposed to wear one in the building here again, but so far most are not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 01, 2021, 05:12:29 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 01, 2021, 04:49:04 PM
thats ridiculous
No, refusing to get the vaccine is.  It's why we're in this boat.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 01, 2021, 05:39:44 PM
If a person already had the virus, getting the vaccine becomes more of a substantive question, in my view.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on August 01, 2021, 05:40:04 PM
Oh I’ve had the vaccine and I’ve also had COVID. So e en if you’ve had one or the other or both they still want us to wear masks indoors. 

Ridiculous. Time to stop hiding from this and get on with your life. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 01, 2021, 06:02:39 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 01, 2021, 05:12:29 PM
No, refusing to get the vaccine is.  It's why we're in this boat. 
requiring a mask if you have been vaccinated is ridiculous

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 01, 2021, 06:03:23 PM
Quote from: Gigem on August 01, 2021, 05:40:04 PM
Oh I’ve had the vaccine and I’ve also had COVID. So e en if you’ve had one or the other or both they still want us to wear masks indoors.

Ridiculous. Time to stop hiding from this and get on with your life.
exactly
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 01, 2021, 07:40:45 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 01, 2021, 05:39:44 PM
If a person already had the virus, getting the vaccine becomes more of a substantive question, in my view.
Well, according to the latest I've seen on that subject, you should wait after getting the virus before getting the vaccine.  But having the virus does not give you the level of immunity or resistance that getting vaccinated does.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 01, 2021, 07:43:22 PM
Quote from: Gigem on August 01, 2021, 05:40:04 PM
Oh I’ve had the vaccine and I’ve also had COVID. So e en if you’ve had one or the other or both they still want us to wear masks indoors.

Ridiculous. Time to stop hiding from this and get on with your life.
Putting it in terms of fear vs. courage, or facing vs. hiding, makes civil discussion about what to do somewhat difficult.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 01, 2021, 08:32:35 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 01, 2021, 07:40:45 PM
Well, according to the latest I've seen on that subject, you should wait after getting the virus before getting the vaccine.  But having the virus does not give you the level of immunity or resistance that getting vaccinated does.
are you sure about that CW

You could be right but Ive not seen any data at all on this
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on August 01, 2021, 08:56:32 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 01, 2021, 07:40:45 PM
Well, according to the latest I've seen on that subject, you should wait after getting the virus before getting the vaccine.  But having the virus does not give you the level of immunity or resistance that getting vaccinated does.
My guess here is that vaccination is a very easy to thing to study. You have been vaccinated or you haven't. But vaccines simply imitate infection to stimulate an immune response. The tricky part in comparing to actual infections is that infections can range - false positives, asymptomatic infections, etc., so having some sort of baseline is trickier and makes it more difficult to give blanket statements about immunity after a positive test.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 01, 2021, 11:29:36 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 01, 2021, 07:40:45 PM
Well, according to the latest I've seen on that subject, you should wait after getting the virus before getting the vaccine.  But having the virus does not give you the level of immunity or resistance that getting vaccinated does.
We waited 13 months.

Having the virus gives more immunity that the vaccine gives. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 01, 2021, 11:49:18 PM
So.. Yeah.



In October, Wuhan hosted the 2019 Military World Games, which drew thousands of military personnel to compete in Olympic-style events.  International press reports cite athletes claiming events were conducted without fans and that Wuhan was a "ghost town."  Athletes from several countries complained of COVID-like symptoms and four countries that sent athletes have confirmed the presence of COVID-19 in November and December of 2019, before the outbreak became public, according to the report.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Temp430 on August 02, 2021, 07:01:12 AM
Vaccination rates for SEC states seem to be somewhat less than the rest of the US.  Those states need to do better because I can see lock down clouds on the horizon that would include SEC football.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Temp430 on August 02, 2021, 07:08:24 AM
The virus seems to be behaving somewhat in a seasonal way like the flu and there are reports that the vaccines don't work as well as initially advertised at preventing infection.  Massachusetts is seeing a small upswing in infections and about one third of new cases are in those already fully vaccinated, or break through infections.

Also, vaccine effectiveness starts to drop off after 6 months.  Israel has started giving out 3rd doses.  It's still worth your while getting vaccinated since they do prevent serious disease for most.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on August 02, 2021, 07:48:40 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 01, 2021, 07:43:22 PM
Putting it in terms of fear vs. courage, or facing vs. hiding, makes civil discussion about what to do somewhat difficult.
So what’s our plan then?  Spend the next 3-5 years wearing masks, limiting social gatherings, going on lock downs, etc ?  I’ve actually known several people who got the vaccine and still caught COVID. One of them has a heart transplant which means they have a suppressed immune system. They’re fine, the vaccine did what it’s supposed to do. 

I just finished writing my uncle’s obituary for my aunt. He died of COVID last week. It’s a tough thing but him and my aunt chose not to get vaccinated. This is after losing my dad to COVID last year. I’ve had a lot of heart break due to this terrible disease but at some point you just have to face it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2021, 08:26:14 AM
I wish everyone would get the vaccine. It's the best mask available right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 02, 2021, 08:45:07 AM
the vaccine doesn't prevent COVID but, I wish everyone would get the vaccine
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2021, 08:49:34 AM
It help keep people out of the hospital and lessen deaths. It can also reduce viral load, which could help lessen the spread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 02, 2021, 08:53:27 AM
Ed Zachery

it works, it's effective

it's easy and it's free

there hasn't been any big stories of the vaccine causing problems
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2021, 10:15:27 AM
It's a matter of numbers of course, and exponents.  With a high rate of vaccinations (or acquired resistance), the virus will have difficulty spreading.  An infected person will encounter say 30 people and if 25 are resistant, he may not spread it any further.  If all 30 are not resistant, he'll give it to 4-5-6 people, and so on.

The rate of transmission can rise or fall dramatically in a few days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 02, 2021, 12:48:13 PM
Quote from: Gigem on August 02, 2021, 07:48:40 AM
So what’s our plan then?  Spend the next 3-5 years wearing masks, limiting social gatherings, going on lock downs, etc ?  I’ve actually known several people who got the vaccine and still caught COVID. One of them has a heart transplant which means they have a suppressed immune system. They’re fine, the vaccine did what it’s supposed to do.

I just finished writing my uncle’s obituary for my aunt. He died of COVID last week. It’s a tough thing but him and my aunt chose not to get vaccinated. This is after losing my dad to COVID last year. I’ve had a lot of heart break due to this terrible disease but at some point you just have to face it.
The plan is that everybody gets vaccinated.  If that were to happen, the need for masking would be drastically reduced.
But there's a strong correlation between anti-masking and anti-vaxxing.  And with wanting everything to "open up."

I am puzzled.  When you say "have to face it," what do you mean?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 02, 2021, 12:51:23 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 01, 2021, 11:29:36 PM
We waited 13 months.

Having the virus gives more immunity that the vaccine gives.
I'm not a doctor.  I'm not a public health expert.  I didn't even stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night.
But the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health disagrees with you.

https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/why-covid-19-vaccines-offer-better-protection-than-infection.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on August 02, 2021, 01:05:52 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 02, 2021, 12:48:13 PM
The plan is that everybody gets vaccinated.  If that were to happen, the need for masking would be drastically reduced.
But there's a strong correlation between anti-masking and anti-vaxxing.  And with wanting everything to "open up."

I am puzzled.  When you say "have to face it," what do you mean?

So what's your plan to get that last 20-40% of the population vaccinated?  Like utee says, everybody who wanted to get vaccinated has had plenty of time and opportunity to do so.  I know lots of folks who just simply ain't gonna take the vaccine no matter what.  

And what do you mean by "the need for masking would be drastically reduced".  Why do we need to wear masks at all if everybody else is vaccinated?  

By face it I mean that we need to understand that covid will be with us a long time, it won't go away in a year or two or even five.  It will be with us from now on, just like the flu is and other contagious diseases.  So at some point, once we accept that not everybody is going to get vaccinated, we need to get on with the business of being normal again.  Not start more masks mandates again for people who refuse to get vaccinated.  Just like my aunt and uncle.  Both over 70, both refused to get vaccinated even though they could have done it 6+ months ago.  Now he's gone and she's grieving.  

By some logic we need to reduce the speed limit on all the roads to 35 mph because there are people out there who refuse to wear the seat belt.  Since most fatal accidents happen at 40-50 mph it makes sense right?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 02, 2021, 01:08:14 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 02, 2021, 12:51:23 PM
I'm not a doctor.  I'm not a public health expert.  I didn't even stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night.
But the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health disagrees with you.

https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/why-covid-19-vaccines-offer-better-protection-than-infection.html
not trying to joist with you on this but all the article says is that studies show the infected immunity only lasts 6 to 8 months

that could be true but there is no actual data to back that up

how many documented cases are there of folks becoming infected more then once

Im sure there are some but Id like to see the numbers behind making a statement that a person who was infected only has immunity 6 to 8 months

there have been very few reports of folks becoming infected more then once
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 02, 2021, 01:46:34 PM
Quote from: Gigem on August 02, 2021, 01:05:52 PM
So what's your plan to get that last 20-40% of the population vaccinated?  Like utee says, everybody who wanted to get vaccinated has had plenty of time and opportunity to do so.  I know lots of folks who just simply ain't gonna take the vaccine no matter what. 

And what do you mean by "the need for masking would be drastically reduced".  Why do we need to wear masks at all if everybody else is vaccinated? 

By face it I mean that we need to understand that covid will be with us a long time, it won't go away in a year or two or even five.  It will be with us from now on, just like the flu is and other contagious diseases.  So at some point, once we accept that not everybody is going to get vaccinated, we need to get on with the business of being normal again.  Not start more masks mandates again for people who refuse to get vaccinated.  Just like my aunt and uncle.  Both over 70, both refused to get vaccinated even though they could have done it 6+ months ago.  Now he's gone and she's grieving. 

By some logic we need to reduce the speed limit on all the roads to 35 mph because there are people out there who refuse to wear the seat belt.  Since most fatal accidents happen at 40-50 mph it makes sense right?
States--like Oklahoma--that passed laws prohibiting schools, businesses, and government agencies from requiring their employees to get vaccinate should repeal those laws.  Or amend them to only apply until the vaccine is upgraded from "emergency" status.
Re "drastically reduced," I agree that 100% vaccination rate should mean that no masks should be needed.  I suppose there is some circumstance where masks would be needed, but I can't think of one.
I think most people understand that it's going to be with us.  The people who don't probably tend to be among the ranks of anti-vaxxers/anti-maskers.  If it's going to be with us for a long time, then we should be prepared to get vaccinated every year, just like we do with flu shots.
I don't get the car analogy at all, and I don't know if most fatal accidents happen at 40-50 mph.
The car analogy I like is running stop signs.  People who refuse to get vaccinated and refuse to wear masks are like people who run stop signs.  They aren't just endangering themselves, they are endangering others.  People do not have some fundamental right or "freedom" to run stop signs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 02, 2021, 01:48:07 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 02, 2021, 01:08:14 PM
not trying to joist with you on this but all the article says is that studies show the infected immunity only lasts 6 to 8 months

that could be true but there is no actual data to back that up

how many documented cases are there of folks becoming infected more then once

Im sure there are some but Id like to see the numbers behind making a statement that a person who was infected only has immunity 6 to 8 months

there have been very few reports of folks becoming infected more then once
So you will only believe the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health if they show you the raw data?  Until then, you'll err on the side of believing that they are lying?

P.S. I doubt that I would understand the raw data well enough to make a judgement, but perhaps you would be able to decipher it more easily.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2021, 01:50:18 PM
This is a long read, but worth it. 

Naturally enhanced neutralizing breadth against SARS-CoV-2 one year after infection | Nature (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03696-9#Sec27)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 02, 2021, 01:59:55 PM
Dang, Badge!  If you can wade through that and understand what you are reading, I salute you.

This seems to be the bottom line:


Quote
The data suggest that immunity in convalescent individuals will be very long lasting and that convalescent individuals who receive available mRNA vaccines will produce antibodies and memory B cells that should be protective against circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants.
And that doesn't answer the question: Does infection or vaccination provide longer/stronger protection?  It seems obvious that the combination of both provides the best.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2021, 02:04:01 PM
Well, that's why I got the vaccine regardless. Why the heck not?

The key to that paper is when they discuss bone marrow. 

These combating cells can last a lifetime in bone marrow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 02, 2021, 02:05:29 PM
why the heck not?

that's the question
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 02, 2021, 02:21:29 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 02, 2021, 02:05:29 PM
why the heck not?

that's the question

Man, I certainly don't have an answer for this.  I don't know anyone in my family or direct circle of friends, that isn't vaccinated.  Even my FIL and MIL that got it back in July 2020, got the vaccine.  Because why the heck not?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 02, 2021, 02:23:27 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 02, 2021, 01:48:07 PM
So you will only believe the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health if they show you the raw data?  Until then, you'll err on the side of believing that they are lying?

P.S. I doubt that I would understand the raw data well enough to make a judgement, but perhaps you would be able to decipher it more easily.
ok I'll make it easy for you

there have been almost 30 million people who have been infected and recovered in the US

of those how many have been infected twice

I cant remember reading about more then a few

now dont get me wrong I hope everyone gets vaccinated but how important is it for previously infected to also be vaccinated

yes I want to know the stats behind making a statement that immunity only lasts 6 to 8 months for previously infected people

There are an estimated 336 Million people in the US

aprox 22% of them are under 18 years old which equals 73 million

if you add 35 million previously infected that equals 108 million low risk people leaving 227 million to be vaccinated

over 164 million have been vaccinated which represents 72% of those needing to be vaccinated

things are just not as bad as you must feel they are CW

herd immunity is starting to have its affects

Yes there are some doubling up of these numbers but its the best estimate I have



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 02, 2021, 02:24:11 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 02, 2021, 01:46:34 PM
Re "drastically reduced," I agree that 100% vaccination rate should mean that no masks should be needed.  I suppose there is some circumstance where masks would be needed, but I can't think of one.
I think most people understand that it's going to be with us.  The people who don't probably tend to be among the ranks of anti-vaxxers/anti-maskers.  If it's going to be with us for a long time, then we should be prepared to get vaccinated every year, just like we do with flu shots.
What irks me is that the vaccinated are being asked to wear masks to protect those who deliberately choose not to receive the vaccine, refuse to wear masks, and don't even think they need to be protected.

Getting the vaccinated to wear masks is IMHO marginally useful at reducing spread. Getting the unvaccinated to take the vaccine would be tremendously useful at reducing spread.

But... The unvaccinated aren't listening and won't listen to public health authorities. So they tell the vaccinated to mask up--because they know those people are more likely to actually listen and comply. 

The bang for the buck comes from getting the unvaccinated to take the shot. But they aren't.

So I don't feel like I should wear a mask just to protect them. I'm vaccinated. Why do I need one?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on August 02, 2021, 02:49:37 PM
The better vehicular comparison is driving drunk. Most of the time you're going to get away with it. But when it goes bad, it really goes bad, and it's someone other than the perp that's scraping the other person's innards off the road.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 02, 2021, 03:02:58 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on August 02, 2021, 02:49:37 PM
The better vehicular comparison is driving drunk. Most of the time you're going to get away with it. But when it goes bad, it really goes bad, and it's someone other than the perp that's scraping the other person's innards off the road.
scraping innards?

really?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 02, 2021, 03:10:07 PM
Hey @Cincydawg (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=870) , any indications from your wife's family about how they feel about this?

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/07/13/1015591406/french-people-rush-for-vaccines-after-macron-ties-a-new-health-pass-to-cafe-life

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 02, 2021, 03:21:50 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 02, 2021, 02:24:11 PM
What irks me is that the vaccinated are being asked to wear masks to protect those who deliberately choose not to receive the vaccine, refuse to wear masks, and don't even think they need to be protected.

Getting the vaccinated to wear masks is IMHO marginally useful at reducing spread. Getting the unvaccinated to take the vaccine would be tremendously useful at reducing spread.

But... The unvaccinated aren't listening and won't listen to public health authorities. So they tell the vaccinated to mask up--because they know those people are more likely to actually listen and comply.

The bang for the buck comes from getting the unvaccinated to take the shot. But they aren't.

So I don't feel like I should wear a mask just to protect them. I'm vaccinated. Why do I need one?

Exactly.  If getting the vaccine isn't the trigger for not wearing a mask, then what is?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 02, 2021, 03:26:18 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 02, 2021, 03:10:07 PM
Hey @Cincydawg (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=870) , any indications from your wife's family about how they feel about this?

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/07/13/1015591406/french-people-rush-for-vaccines-after-macron-ties-a-new-health-pass-to-cafe-life


It will be interesting to see if the French really roll over like the article hints 

I suspect there will be a little stronger reaction
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 02, 2021, 03:32:08 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 02, 2021, 03:21:50 PM
Exactly.  If getting the vaccine isn't the trigger for not wearing a mask, then what is?


Maskers: "If it saves just one life, shouldn't we all wear masks?!"

Me: "No."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2021, 03:36:14 PM
I have not talked to them lately, so I don't know.  I know the father was upset about the last lockdown.  I suspect they are vaccinated so it may not be an issue for them.

The dad is American, from Wyoming, Ohio.  

Which is not near Wyoming the state, but is across the tracks from Reading, Ohio, and Lockland, Ohio, which once did have a lock.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on August 02, 2021, 04:47:25 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 02, 2021, 01:46:34 PM
States--like Oklahoma--that passed laws prohibiting schools, businesses, and government agencies from requiring their employees to get vaccinate should repeal those laws.  Or amend them to only apply until the vaccine is upgraded from "emergency" status.
Re "drastically reduced," I agree that 100% vaccination rate should mean that no masks should be needed.  I suppose there is some circumstance where masks would be needed, but I can't think of one.
I think most people understand that it's going to be with us.  The people who don't probably tend to be among the ranks of anti-vaxxers/anti-maskers.  If it's going to be with us for a long time, then we should be prepared to get vaccinated every year, just like we do with flu shots.
I don't get the car analogy at all, and I don't know if most fatal accidents happen at 40-50 mph.
The car analogy I like is running stop signs.  People who refuse to get vaccinated and refuse to wear masks are like people who run stop signs.  They aren't just endangering themselves, they are endangering others.  People do not have some fundamental right or "freedom" to run stop signs.
I vehemently oppose government mandates that force people to get vaccinated. Are we not a free country ?

It’s a shame that we even have to pass laws that prohibit this. 

Back to the car analogy…running stop signs endanger everybody. Not wearing your seatbelt only endangers yourself. Asking vaccinated people to wear masks to protect those who refuse to be vaccinated is not the right logic IMO. These people will never get vaccinated. 

just like people who refuse to wear their seatbelt for safety despite all the evidence to the contrary. They are the ones gambling with their life why should we have to pay ? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 02, 2021, 05:17:08 PM
We do pay collectively when someone is hospitalized in an auto accident that would have been prevented had they worn a seatbelt.

And then there can be a cost to the family of course.

Over half of medical expenses in the US are born by government.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 02, 2021, 06:11:02 PM
There's a general thought that driving without a seatbelt endangers no one but yourself.  That is false.  Some years ago, Car and Driver (I think) did some "evasive driving" tests with and without seatbelts and the results were clear.  You are significantly less in control of your car in an emergency if you aren't belted in than if you are belted in.

About masks . . . .  I don't like to wear one.  But when I go into a place of business I put one on, even though I got vaccinated twice way back in February.  I don't know who's been vaccinated and who isn't (Oklahoma has a fully vaccinated rate of 49%), and I don't even want to get a mild case of it and bring it home to my wife, who got vaccinated at the same time I did but is immune-compromised.

I guess what I don't understand is the virulence and anger of the anti-masking sentiment.  (Not alluding to anyone here.)  Since 1900-ish, we've gone from a society that prided itself that prided rugged individualism to a society where the federal government tells us how many gallons of water our toilet tanks can hold, how much water our shower heads can flow, and how many miles per gallon our motor vehicles have to average.  A society where the federal government monitors our bank deposits to make sure that we aren't racketeers.  Where the federal government sets de facto racial and sex quotas on a plethora things from the composition private businesses' workforces to promotion rates in the armed forces.  All of this we accept without violent, without even angry responses.  Most of us accept it without a peep.

But now, during a pandemic that has killed far more Americans than it should have, refusing to wear masks is the hill upon which red-blooded patriots want to make their last stand against tyranny?  I don't get it.

And I really don't get it when the anti-maskers are very often also anti-vaxxers, who, if they would get themselves vaccinated, could make it so that neither they nor the rest of us would be having to worry about when and where it is necessary to wear masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 02, 2021, 06:26:38 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 02, 2021, 06:11:02 PM
But now, during a pandemic that has killed far more Americans than it should have, refusing to wear masks is the hill upon which red-blooded patriots want to make their last stand against tyranny?  I don't get it.

And I really don't get it when the anti-maskers are very often also anti-vaxxers, who, if they would get themselves vaccinated, could make it so that neither they nor the rest of us would be having to worry about when and where it is necessary to wear masks.
For me there's no "hill to die on" going on here. And BTW I am neither anti-vax nor anti-mask. I am vaccinated, and prior to the widespread availability of the vaccine, I both supported masking and wore one myself. I believe that at the time it was a one of the best ways to protect the vulnerable without frankly just locking everything down. 

And I still carry a mask in the car. If I walked up to a business and it had a sign on the front door saying "masks required", I'm not going to argue with them about "muh rights!"--I'm going to put on a mask. It's their business; their policy.

But for me, the situation has changed. COVID hasn't disappeared, but with widespread vaccine availability, the most vulnerable among us have FAR better protection than my silly little mask can offer, by getting the vaccine. I was mostly wearing a mask to protect the vulnerable, as I am not in a demographic likely to suffer significant harm from COVID. However, while I had slight concern about getting COVID myself before I was vaccinated, I now have very little concern that suffering an infection myself would be harmful. So those who were most vulnerable can protect themselves with the vaccine, and don't need me to wear a mask to protect them. And I've protected myself with the vaccine, so I don't need double protection of a mask IMHO. 

So the group with the most vulnerability are now the anti-vaxxers who also happen to be anti-maskers, and the powers that be are telling me that it's my duty to wear a mask to protect them, even though they've chosen not to get the vaccine. The very same people that chafed at the idea of wearing a mask, or social distancing, or doing anything whatsoever to stop the spread prior to the availability of the vaccine. 

So that's where I draw the line. I've done my part. It's not about tyranny, it's about anyone who wants protection having access to it, so that those who choose not to get it deserve none from me. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Abba on August 02, 2021, 06:29:48 PM
I'm not enjoying agreeing with a Purdue fan this often.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2021, 06:32:01 PM
Quote from: Abba on August 02, 2021, 06:29:48 PM
I'm not enjoying agreeing with a Purdue fan this often.
Me neither.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2021, 06:33:14 PM
Some businesses around here are doing the mask thing. I really don't want to wear one, nor do I carry one, so if I see the sign, I just don't go in.

But, I'll be up in the Chicago area next week... and...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on August 02, 2021, 06:37:02 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 02, 2021, 06:26:38 PM
For me there's no "hill to die on" going on here. And BTW I am neither anti-vax nor anti-mask. I am vaccinated, and prior to the widespread availability of the vaccine, I both supported masking and wore one myself. I believe that at the time it was a one of the best ways to protect the vulnerable without frankly just locking everything down.

And I still carry a mask in the car. If I walked up to a business and it had a sign on the front door saying "masks required", I'm not going to argue with them about "muh rights!"--I'm going to put on a mask. It's their business; their policy.

But for me, the situation has changed. COVID hasn't disappeared, but with widespread vaccine availability, the most vulnerable among us have FAR better protection than my silly little mask can offer, by getting the vaccine. I was mostly wearing a mask to protect the vulnerable, as I am not in a demographic likely to suffer significant harm from COVID. However, while I had slight concern about getting COVID myself before I was vaccinated, I now have very little concern that suffering an infection myself would be harmful. So those who were most vulnerable can protect themselves with the vaccine, and don't need me to wear a mask to protect them. And I've protected myself with the vaccine, so I don't need double protection of a mask IMHO.

So the group with the most vulnerability are now the anti-vaxxers who also happen to be anti-maskers, and the powers that be are telling me that it's my duty to wear a mask to protect them, even though they've chosen not to get the vaccine. The very same people that chafed at the idea of wearing a mask, or social distancing, or doing anything whatsoever to stop the spread prior to the availability of the vaccine.

So that's where I draw the line. I've done my part. It's not about tyranny, it's about anyone who wants protection having access to it, so that those who choose not to get it deserve none from me.
This is better than I could say myself. 

btw I understand  your fear since your wife is immune compromised. But I know somebody immune compromised ( heart transplant) who got COVID after the vaccination and did fine. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 02, 2021, 06:41:44 PM
Quote from: Abba on August 02, 2021, 06:29:48 PM
I'm not enjoying agreeing with a Purdue fan this often.
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 02, 2021, 06:32:01 PM
Me neither.
It'll be a lot easier to stomach if you just think of it more that you're agreeing with an engineer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 02, 2021, 06:45:10 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 02, 2021, 06:26:38 PM
For me there's no "hill to die on" going on here. And BTW I am neither anti-vax nor anti-mask. I am vaccinated, and prior to the widespread availability of the vaccine, I both supported masking and wore one myself. I believe that at the time it was a one of the best ways to protect the vulnerable without frankly just locking everything down.

And I still carry a mask in the car. If I walked up to a business and it had a sign on the front door saying "masks required", I'm not going to argue with them about "muh rights!"--I'm going to put on a mask. It's their business; their policy.

But for me, the situation has changed. COVID hasn't disappeared, but with widespread vaccine availability, the most vulnerable among us have FAR better protection than my silly little mask can offer, by getting the vaccine. I was mostly wearing a mask to protect the vulnerable, as I am not in a demographic likely to suffer significant harm from COVID. However, while I had slight concern about getting COVID myself before I was vaccinated, I now have very little concern that suffering an infection myself would be harmful. So those who were most vulnerable can protect themselves with the vaccine, and don't need me to wear a mask to protect them. And I've protected myself with the vaccine, so I don't need double protection of a mask IMHO.

So the group with the most vulnerability are now the anti-vaxxers who also happen to be anti-maskers, and the powers that be are telling me that it's my duty to wear a mask to protect them, even though they've chosen not to get the vaccine. The very same people that chafed at the idea of wearing a mask, or social distancing, or doing anything whatsoever to stop the spread prior to the availability of the vaccine.

So that's where I draw the line. I've done my part. It's not about tyranny, it's about anyone who wants protection having access to it, so that those who choose not to get it deserve none from me.

Yup.  All of this, and exactly this.

The vaccine replaces the mask and does the same job a hell of a lot better.  Orders of magnitude better.  


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 02, 2021, 06:46:15 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 02, 2021, 06:41:44 PM
It'll be a lot easier to stomach if you just think of it more that you're agreeing with an engineer.
word.  Engineers are the best.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 02, 2021, 06:51:33 PM
Thanks Purdue guy- at least for a moment you have restored some small amount of hope that there is sanity.

The media have worked very hard to create the perception that there are two counter opposing groups. ( this is their pattern and winning formula) The “ anti-Vaccers” and the pro vaxxers.  Notice I did not put quotes around the second group because that’s not what the media calls them, in fact they don’t call them anything.

Like everything else they create a false narrative that basically says that if you’re not vaccinated, somehow you are less in formed or misinformed or not intelligent. Of course the reality is so far from that that’s almost silly. Many people who do not have a vaccination do not care if other people have it or, in fact, recommend it to certain people in their lives. They have just chosen not to get it for their very own reasons. Some of them have been told by their own doctors that they’ve already had Covid and the antibodies, and are fine,Or they have been told the real data on Covid-and since they are very young and very healthy they do not see it as a major risk to themselves or those around them. Or, they may have hesitancy or fear and that could be based on a variety of reasons. Much of that was developed during the election last year when current office holders strongly and vehemently denounced the vaccine.

And let’s not ignore the elephant in the room. The data says that the groups most likely to not get vaccinated fall into three categories: the young, African-Americans, and Hispanics.  I seriously doubt you could call any of those groups anti-VAX or anti mask. 

I don’t see the virulence you speak of- no more than those on a witch-hunt for the unvaccinated- the MSM.
Yes- People can Get pretty demonstrative and agitated when you cross the line of what they view as their rights or their freedom. Just look at the abortion issue.

Dr. Fauci and the CDC has pretty much created a great deal of miss trust and skepticism about anything that they say now and what I see are people, like myself who got vaccinated right away, being told that the promise of not having to wear a mask was not true. I do find that very aggravating. On the other hand if I’m told I need to wear a mask to go into a store that’s what I will do. I just don’t think the government belongs in personal decision making with respect to medical issues and has no right to tell people that they have to stick a needle in their arm.

No- I don’t even know if there is a reason to label real, everyday people “ anti- vaxxers” and even if you do, they are not necessarily the same people who don’t want government mandates about masks or lockdowns.  Seems like millions who got the vaccine don’t agree with the ever changing story coming from the Fauci/CDC, and want to reap the benefits of having the vaccine, or at least the responsibility of having that choice.

https://www.mlive.com/news/ann-arbor/2021/07/government-distrust-driving-younger-detroiters-covid-vaccine-hesitancy-university-of-michigan-survey-says.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 02, 2021, 07:08:17 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 02, 2021, 06:51:33 PM
And let’s not ignore the elephant in the room. The data says that the groups most likely to not get vaccinated fall into three categories: the young, African-Americans, and Hispanics.  I seriously doubt you could call any of those groups anti-VAX or anti mask. 
This one saddens me greatly...

Nobody can deny that the Tuskegee experiment was a heinous and dark stain on our society. Nobody can deny that it has eroded trust in the African-American community for pretty much all health authorities.

But the result is that there are now significant numbers African-Americans, based on their distrust for the health system, who are forgoing this vaccine. A vaccine for a disease that has been disproportionately affecting African-Americans (largely due to underlying health conditions and lower SES). 

Basically, because 60+ years ago in our history we had an issue where African-Americans were given short shrift and abused by our medical system, they're denying themselves the vaccine that rich educated white people have been seeking in droves. It could further widen racial disparities in our society, because in areas where perhaps both parents work [or dad isn't around], it might fall to a grandma or an aunt to help with childcare--and that grandma or that aunt might be far more vulnerable to COVID. You can't help with childcare if you're on a ventilator.

It's as if they're letting the Tuskegee experiment hurt them twice. I wish it weren't this way...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 02, 2021, 07:10:27 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 02, 2021, 07:08:17 PM
This one saddens me greatly...

Nobody can deny that the Tuskegee experiment was a heinous and dark stain on our society. Nobody can deny that it has eroded trust in the African-American community for pretty much all health authorities.

But the result is that there are now significant numbers African-Americans, based on their distrust for the health system, who are forgoing this vaccine. A vaccine for a disease that has been disproportionately affecting African-Americans (largely due to underlying health conditions and lower SES).

Basically, because 60+ years ago in our history we had an issue where African-Americans were given short shrift and abused by our medical system, they're denying themselves the vaccine that rich educated white people have been seeking in droves. It could further widen racial disparities in our society, because in areas where perhaps both parents work [or dad isn't around], it might fall to a grandma or an aunt to help with childcare--and that grandma or that aunt might be far more vulnerable to COVID. You can't help with childcare if you're on a ventilator.

It's as if they're letting the Tuskegee experiment hurt them twice. I wish it weren't this way...
Well spoken. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 02, 2021, 09:08:18 PM
The Sioux City Explorers' roster this weekend against the Gary SouthShore Railcats looks very different from the one that will be on the field later this week in Winnipeg.

The majority of Explorers players have decided not to get the COVID-19 vaccine. That choice is going to lead to a bit of a headache for the club on its upcoming road trip.

On July 22, the Winnipeg Goldeyes of the American Association received permission from Manitoba Public Health in Canada to return to playing home games in Winnipeg, for the first time since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Goldeyes have been playing their home games this season in Jackson, Tennessee, and spent all of 2020 on the road.

The Explorers will be the Goldeyes' first opponent back in Winnipeg, where the two teams will play from Aug. 3 to Aug. 5. But due to vaccine and testing requirements for entry into Canada, and a low team vaccination rate, the majority of the Sioux City roster will not be making the trip.

Upon arrival at the Canadian border, American travelers are required to submit proof of full vaccination, must have a negative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test within 72 hours of arrival, and must submit a quarantine plan to Canadian authorities in case of a positive COVID test.


According to Montgomery, only one current Explorer will make the trip, and the rest of the roster will be comprised of fully vaccinated players from the independent Pecos League.

Fischbach, who is vaccinated, said he has made efforts to educate and encourage the X’s players to get the vaccine since the beginning of the season. Despite this, the majority of the roster is still hesitant to get the jab.

“It started from Day 1,” Fischbach said. “We had a little bit of an education process. We have a message on our bulletin board, ‘This is where you can go to get the vaccine,’ telling everybody that the vaccine is covered fully, that there is no expense to you individually. Unfortunately, the vaccine has become almost more of a political issue than a medical issue.”

“It’s been hard to convince not only the Sioux City Explorer players, but basically our U.S. population at large to go out and get the vaccine.”


The main source of hesitancy for the players? According to Fischbach, they're concerned the vaccines have not yet received full FDA approval, and are instead currently approved under the FDA’s “Emergency Use Authorization,” along with misconceptions about possible side effects from the vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 02, 2021, 09:12:52 PM
EAGAN, Minn. -- As the Minnesota Vikings began their second week of training camp down three of four quarterbacks due to a COVID-19 interruption, coach Mike Zimmer doubled down on his frustrations aimed at unvaccinated players and the likelihood that the situation his team currently faces could become a reality during the regular season.

"I just feel like we're going to have guys miss games," Zimmer said. "There are so many cases going on right now. We're going to have guys miss some games and we have to be prepared for it."


Zimmer didn't mask his frustrations at his players and "everybody" who has not received the COVID-19 vaccine. "Going through all the things you had to do last year with masks, protocol, traveling, can't leave for a day, can't go out and see your family and all the things -- can't go out to dinner on the road, have to wear masks on the plane, all that stuff. It was just difficult," Zimmer said. "I just don't understand. I just don't understand. I think we could put this thing to bed if we all do this. But it is what it is."

The Vikings coach said he spoke again with his team regarding his stance on vaccinations and the negative consequences of being unvaccinated following Saturday's disruption.

"I talked to the team, and like I said before, there are quite a few guys that are just against it," Zimmer said. "I'm not going to be able to change their mind, so, it's like half the country, I guess."


Zimmer ponder the question: How would he react if the Vikings lost a game because their starting quarterback or a star player was unavailable due to COVID-19 protocols?

"Probably won't be happy we lost the game, first, and I probably won't be happy we could've prevented this," Zimmer said. "Like I said, these guys, some of them just won't do it. I shouldn't say it, but some of the things they read is just, whew, out there."

"It's their beliefs, so. I don't know if it's misinformation. It's their belief, so whatever they've heard or read or been told. Not from -- maybe they don't believe what [NFL chief medical officer] Dr. [Allen] Sills and the NFL is telling them either, so."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on August 02, 2021, 09:29:32 PM
Good for Zimmer
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 02, 2021, 09:47:24 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 02, 2021, 07:08:17 PM

Basically, because 60+ years ago in our history we had an issue where African-Americans were given short shrift and abused by our medical system, they're denying themselves the vaccine that rich educated white people have been seeking in droves. It could further widen racial disparities in our society, because in areas where perhaps both parents work [or dad isn't around], it might fall to a grandma or an aunt to help with childcare--and that grandma or that aunt might be far more vulnerable to COVID. You can't help with childcare if you're on a ventilator.

It's as if they're letting the Tuskegee experiment hurt them twice. I wish it weren't this way...
Yeah, I wish they were better at picking and choosing when they were being lied to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 03, 2021, 09:15:33 AM
The good news is that India is well down now, and the UK and Spain appear to be dropping fast, and France may have peaked.  This cycle seems to be topping where it hit earlier, so perhaps in the US it will top out soon (we hope).  We hit 70% adults with at least one shot, so that's likely to attenuate spread, long with resistance from previous.

Delta of course is more spreadable but apparently milder in part because of vax.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2021, 09:30:19 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/I2W9wDY.png)

CDC COVID Data Tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#covidnet-hospitalization-network)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on August 03, 2021, 09:45:13 AM
Between the increased spreadability and vaccinations, hopefully this burns itself out sooner than later.

https://twitter.com/dhmontgomery/status/1422230125115027456?s=20

Minnesota's trendlines
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 03, 2021, 09:58:20 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2021, 09:30:19 AM
[img width=500 height=248.998]https://i.imgur.com/I2W9wDY.png[/img]

CDC COVID Data Tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#covidnet-hospitalization-network)

thats the main stat we should care about

looks good so far
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 03, 2021, 11:04:05 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 02, 2021, 09:47:24 PM
Yeah, I wish they were better at picking and choosing when they were being lied to.
Yes. That should have been the takeaway from my post. :smiley_confused1:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on August 03, 2021, 11:18:01 AM
Oldest son (18 yo) got his 1st shot yesterday. No problems. The 14 year old doesn’t want the vaccine. I’m fairly certain he had covid because I think he gave it to me. I’m not gonna force him at this point but I’ve strongly encouraged him to take it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 03, 2021, 11:23:17 AM
No offense intended, but 14 year olds don't get to make that kind of decision by themselves.  What is his pediatrician's recommendation?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Thumper on August 03, 2021, 11:35:55 AM
My wife and I got Covid back in late January, 2020.  At that time, WHO and CDC said all the cases were in China and 2 in the US so we went on a cruise to the Bahamas.  A lot of sick people on the ship and especially on the plane back home.  We thought it was bad flu.
A couple of days after we got back we both started coughing and had fevers over 103.  After a week, I was finally strong enough to get us to an emergency room.  Of course they told us there was no Covid in Kansas or in the Bahamas but they did give us the Zpack they were using to treat Covid.  Our oxygen levels were 90 and 91 percent so they wanted to check us in and put us on ventilators.  We said no thanks.  It took me 5 weeks to get back on my feet, took my wife 2 months.  We still haven't regained full short term memory.  
My wife has a Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia and has a compromised immune system from radiation and chemo.  We were both vaccinated with 2 shots of Pfizer.  My wife is in a study for CLL Covid antibodies and she has almost no antibodies right now.  We are trying to get booster shots as they have shown positive results for CLL patients.  
Right now in my area, hospitals are full and we are in the high infection range we were in back at the last peak.  Less than half of the people here are vaccinated and masks are rare.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2021, 11:43:15 AM
GET

THE

SHOT


.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 03, 2021, 12:10:17 PM
Quote from: Thumper on August 03, 2021, 11:35:55 AM
My wife and I got Covid back in late January, 2020.  At that time, WHO and CDC said all the cases were in China and 2 in the US so we went on a cruise to the Bahamas.  A lot of sick people on the ship and especially on the plane back home.  We thought it was bad flu.
A couple of days after we got back we both started coughing and had fevers over 103.  After a week, I was finally strong enough to get us to an emergency room.  Of course they told us there was no Covid in Kansas or in the Bahamas but they did give us the Zpack they were using to treat Covid.  Our oxygen levels were 90 and 91 percent so they wanted to check us in and put us on ventilators.  We said no thanks.  It took me 5 weeks to get back on my feet, took my wife 2 months.  We still haven't regained full short term memory. 
My wife has a Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia and has a compromised immune system from radiation and chemo.  We were both vaccinated with 2 shots of Pfizer.  My wife is in a study for CLL Covid antibodies and she has almost no antibodies right now.  We are trying to get booster shots as they have shown positive results for CLL patients. 
Right now in my area, hospitals are full and we are in the high infection range we were in back at the last peak.  Less than half of the people here are vaccinated and masks are rare.
Incredible.  I am glad you an and your wife are still with us. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 03, 2021, 12:13:23 PM
Wow Thumper, you and your wife have made it through quite a lot.  Hang in there, and I hope you can get your wife the booster.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2021, 12:14:09 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 03, 2021, 12:10:17 PM
Incredible.  I am glad you an and your wife are still with us. 
Seconded. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 03, 2021, 12:22:47 PM
I have a great employee/person who works on my team. She has been hospitalized with Covid for over 2 weeks, and on a ventilator.  

We got good news a few days ago, she had a tracheotomy and was stabilizing and off the ventilator. 

This morning, we are being told she is not going to make it.  67 years old, no other major health issues, but was not vaccinated. 

Like so many others who have dealt with this, our hearts are broken. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 03, 2021, 12:27:45 PM
Quote from: Thumper on August 03, 2021, 11:35:55 AM
My wife and I got Covid back in late January, 2020.  At that time, WHO and CDC said all the cases were in China and 2 in the US so we went on a cruise to the Bahamas.  A lot of sick people on the ship and especially on the plane back home.  We thought it was bad flu.
A couple of days after we got back we both started coughing and had fevers over 103.  After a week, I was finally strong enough to get us to an emergency room.  Of course they told us there was no Covid in Kansas or in the Bahamas but they did give us the Zpack they were using to treat Covid.  Our oxygen levels were 90 and 91 percent so they wanted to check us in and put us on ventilators.  We said no thanks.  It took me 5 weeks to get back on my feet, took my wife 2 months.  We still haven't regained full short term memory. 
My wife has a Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia and has a compromised immune system from radiation and chemo.  We were both vaccinated with 2 shots of Pfizer.  My wife is in a study for CLL Covid antibodies and she has almost no antibodies right now.  We are trying to get booster shots as they have shown positive results for CLL patients. 
Right now in my area, hospitals are full and we are in the high infection range we were in back at the last peak.  Less than half of the people here are vaccinated and masks are rare.
Sobering story, this is hitting a lot of us close to home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 03, 2021, 01:49:48 PM
Hang in there, Thumper!

All you folks who disagreed with my rant about anti-maskers/anti-vaxxers--you're wrong.

So there!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2021, 01:51:31 PM
SW Florida hospitals fill up: Lee Health admits 117 COVID-19 patients over the weekend, nearing July 2020 peak (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/sw-florida-hospitals-fill-up-lee-health-admits-117-covid-19-patients-over-the-weekend-nearing-july-2020-peak/ar-AAMQTzc?ocid=msedgntp)


Key takeaway: 90% unvaccinated. 

WTF? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 03, 2021, 01:55:51 PM
Quote from: Thumper on August 03, 2021, 11:35:55 AM
My wife has a Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia and has a compromised immune system from radiation and chemo.  We were both vaccinated with 2 shots of Pfizer.  My wife is in a study for CLL Covid antibodies and she has almost no antibodies right now.  We are trying to get booster shots as they have shown positive results for CLL patients. 
Best of luck to you and your wife, Thumper.

On this point, my understanding of all the reading that I've been doing is that immunity is not just a matter of current antibody levels--it's the B cells (or maybe T cells) that have the ability to recognize the spike protein and ramp up antibody production extremely quickly if the virus is encountered, and those cells apparently persist LONG after the antibodies wane.

That's one of the unknowns with the vaccine--do waning antibodies mean that you need additional boosters? Or not? 

I suspect we'll start to understand that soon, as researches start to get data on breakthrough infections (especially if they require hospitalization or end in death) and correlate it to how long it had been since the infected person had their vaccine. 

A lot still to figure out...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2021, 02:00:47 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 03, 2021, 01:55:51 PM
Best of luck to you and your wife, Thumper.

On this point, my understanding of all the reading that I've been doing is that immunity is not just a matter of current antibody levels--it's the B cells (or maybe T cells) that have the ability to recognize the spike protein and ramp up antibody production extremely quickly if the virus is encountered, and those cells apparently persist LONG after the antibodies wane.

That's one of the unknowns with the vaccine--do waning antibodies mean that you need additional boosters? Or not?

I suspect we'll start to understand that soon, as researches start to get data on breakthrough infections (especially if they require hospitalization or end in death) and correlate it to how long it had been since the infected person had their vaccine.

A lot still to figure out...
Both, and they both can stay in bone marrow for a lifetime. This is from an MD on another board I lurk on (BadgerBlitz). And yes, I did ask him if I could share this here.


(https://i.imgur.com/ePbhfJT.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 03, 2021, 02:03:59 PM
Here's a really good one from Virginia showing cases by vaccination status:

https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-19-cases-by-vaccination-status/

It allows you to adjust the timeline for the data. One of the criticisms of data is that the timeline for how many cases are in the unvaccinated often starts too early before vaccine rollout was really widespread. That will naturally make the percentage unvaccinated seem higher than is really accurate.

I.e. their default start date (Jan 21) suggests that >99% of cases were in the unvaccinated, and >98% of hospitalizations/deaths were in the unvaccinated. But that's unfair because in Jan/Feb only very few people had access to the vaccines, i.e. healthcare workers, etc.

If you look at say a start date of May 1, so you get a 3 month timeline when vaccines should be pretty available, you get that reported cases were >97% unvaccinated, reported hospitalizations were >94% unvaccinated, and reported deaths were >93% unvaccinated. By now VA is somewhere near 50%ish vaccination, so that's a pretty stark difference in cases and outcomes.

So kudos to Virginia in presenting the data in a way that allows for more nuanced analysis than starting the date at Jan 21.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 03, 2021, 05:26:56 PM
what media outlet, or health official or politician or "expert" ever told the public that the vaccine would kept folks from getting the virus?

and if no one EVER said this, why do stupid people think this is implied?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2021, 05:33:49 PM
The messaging on this thing has become worse than the virus itself. Every f'ing day it's something new.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on August 03, 2021, 05:41:08 PM
Quote from: Thumper on August 03, 2021, 11:35:55 AM
My wife and I got Covid back in late January, 2020.  At that time, WHO and CDC said all the cases were in China and 2 in the US so we went on a cruise to the Bahamas.  A lot of sick people on the ship and especially on the plane back home.  We thought it was bad flu.
A couple of days after we got back we both started coughing and had fevers over 103.  After a week, I was finally strong enough to get us to an emergency room.  Of course they told us there was no Covid in Kansas or in the Bahamas but they did give us the Zpack they were using to treat Covid.  Our oxygen levels were 90 and 91 percent so they wanted to check us in and put us on ventilators.  We said no thanks.  It took me 5 weeks to get back on my feet, took my wife 2 months.  We still haven't regained full short term memory. 
My wife has a Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia and has a compromised immune system from radiation and chemo.  We were both vaccinated with 2 shots of Pfizer.  My wife is in a study for CLL Covid antibodies and she has almost no antibodies right now.  We are trying to get booster shots as they have shown positive results for CLL patients. 
Right now in my area, hospitals are full and we are in the high infection range we were in back at the last peak.  Less than half of the people here are vaccinated and masks are rare.
Holy cow. Good to know that you're still around.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 03, 2021, 05:43:35 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 03, 2021, 05:26:56 PM
what media outlet, or health official or politician or "expert" ever told the public that the vaccine would kept folks from getting the virus?

and if no one EVER said this, why do stupid people think this is implied?
Well, and the flipside of this, is that we're seeing vaccinated people testing positive, when they're not actually sick and not likely to spread it.  The vaccine can't keep you from breathing in the virus and then having your body go through its natural response to infection.  What it can do, and seems to do quite well, is prevent you from getting sick, prevent you from becoming hospitalized, prevent you from death.  I'm speaking in statistical terms here, because of course there are breakthrough infections that have caused serious illness, hospitalization, and death.  But the odds of those outcomes are significantly reduced with vaccination.

It highlights the one major problem that I've been pointing out for the past 18 months which is that, on a global scale, nobody has ever even attempted to define what "success" looks like.  We somehow went from "flatten the curve" to "eradicate the virus" without any rational thought about what would and should actually be our criteria for success.

My own heuristic for success, is something like, "through vaccination and treatments, reduce the effects of SARS-CoV-2 to nothing worse than the seasonal flu in an average year, in all aspects, including serious illness, hospitalization, and death of individuals, as well as social and economic impact to society."

We're clearly not there yet, not enough people have been vaccinated and/or infected.  But one way or the other, we'll get there eventually.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 03, 2021, 05:49:55 PM
I feel that many folks are refusing the vaccine because they think it doesn't prevent them from getting the virus

it's F'ing absurd and illogical

not going political, but for almost a year it was the former President's fault for messaging

changing politicians hasn't helped the messaging to any effectiveness - it's frustrating
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 03, 2021, 06:06:26 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 03, 2021, 05:49:55 PM
I feel that many folks are refusing the vaccine because they think it doesn't prevent them from getting the virus

it's F'ing absurd and illogical

not going political, but for almost a year it was the former President's fault for messaging

changing politicians hasn't helped the messaging to any effectiveness - it's frustrating
ummmm Im telling


Fearless is going to get uteed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 03, 2021, 06:19:13 PM
Fearless about to get nuked.

3... 2... 1...

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 03, 2021, 07:10:46 PM
Simple explanation...

A vaccine is like having a strong military. That strong military, which has a lot of resources, which constantly trains to keep its effectiveness up, etc.

Having a strong military doesn't mean you'll never be attacked and you'll never be in a war. That's silly.

It means that you won't *LOSE* a war.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 03, 2021, 09:48:22 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 03, 2021, 05:49:55 PM
I feel that many folks are refusing the vaccine because they think it doesn't prevent them from getting the virus

it's F'ing absurd and illogical

not going political, but for almost a year it was the former President's fault for messaging

changing politicians hasn't helped the messaging to any effectiveness - it's frustrating
That is a new take for me, and a very interesting one. People not taking the virus because they don’t think it will stop them from getting Covid?

I have heard of many people who don’t take it because they don’t care about getting Covid because they feel healthy, I’ve heard of people who won’t take the vaccine because they’re afraid of the potential long-term impacts which we do not yet know, and I’ve heard of people who won’t take the vaccine because their doctor told them they have antibodies already.

ironically, if they think the vaccine won’t prevent them from getting Covid-it turns out they are correct doesn’t it?

and yes please if you’re going to go political do two things for me: put it in the thread where it’s allowed and don’t go on an “opposite day” take. We need to admit the obvious which is that the messaging from those not in office and trying to get in office created more doubt about the vaccine than anything, And it was blatant, unwavering, and intentional.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 03, 2021, 09:51:44 PM
There is a nice young lady who works for me who is six months pregnant. I spoke to her today and she let me know that both her and her husband are vaccinated but that her husband is now testing positive with a case of “breakthrough“ covid.  

She is a little bit worried and they are isolating from each other in the same house. Here’s the interesting thing: her doctor told her that of all of her current pregnant patients, less than 40% of them chose to get vaccinated while the remainder did not.

Glad I didn’t have to make that decision. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 03, 2021, 09:52:06 PM
And that's it for the political takes.

The rebuttal was warranted.  Now please stop it.  I'm deleting everything from here on out.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 03, 2021, 09:54:45 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 03, 2021, 09:52:06 PM
And that's it for the political takes.

The rebuttal was warranted.  Now please stop it.  I'm deleting everything from here on out.


Understood.  👍
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 03, 2021, 10:33:54 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 03, 2021, 09:48:22 PM
That is a new take for me, and a very interesting one. People not taking the virus because they don’t think it will stop them from getting Covid?

I have heard of many people who don’t take it because they don’t care about getting Covid because they feel healthy, I’ve heard of people who won’t take the vaccine because they’re afraid of the potential long-term impacts which we do not yet know, and I’ve heard of people who won’t take the vaccine because their doctor told them they have antibodies already.

ironically, if they think the vaccine won’t prevent them from getting Covid-it turns out they are correct doesn’t it?



of course they're correct

that's not how the vaccine works
that's obviously not a logical reason to refuse the vaccine
but, they use it as a reason
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 03, 2021, 10:58:42 PM
With the delta variant rapidly spreading to unvaccinated people across the country, Tyson Foods on Tuesday announced it will require all its U.S. employees to receive the COVID vaccine.

The company, which dealt with outbreaks at its meat plants during the height of the pandemic last year, said the move makes Tyson the largest U.S. food company to require COVID-19 vaccinations for its entire workforce.

The United Food and Commercial Workers, which represents over 24,000 unionized front-line workers at Tyson plants across the country, including in Dakota City, Nebraska, and Storm Lake, Iowa, immediately raised serious concerns about the company implementing the mandate "before the FDA has fully approved the vaccine."

Almost half of Tyson's 120,000 workers in the U.S. have been vaccinated and coronavirus infection rates among employees remain low, Tyson said in a statement.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 04, 2021, 11:58:28 AM
Sounds like the FDA will be granting full approval to Pfizer by Labor Day. Moderna probably a month later.

That will help with some of the people who are hesitant, based on the Vax not having full approval. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 04, 2021, 12:07:22 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 04, 2021, 11:58:28 AM
Sounds like the FDA will be granting full approval to Pfizer by Labor Day. Moderna probably a month later.

That will help with some of the people who are hesitant, based on the Vax not having full approval.
No it won't. They'll find another excuse. 

If the 165M people in the US already vaccinated without any horror stories popping up hasn't made an impact, the FDA giving its stamp of approval won't do it.

I'd speculate on what some of those other excuses might be, but then 94 will get mad at me. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 04, 2021, 12:08:02 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 04, 2021, 11:58:28 AM
Sounds like the FDA will be granting full approval to Pfizer by Labor Day. Moderna probably a month later.

That will help with some of the people who are hesitant, based on the Vax not having full approval.

Maybe I'm cynical, but I think at this point, that's not likely to make any difference at all.  The people who aren't getting vaxed now, aren't going to change their minds when it's fully approved.  But I'd absolutely love to be wrong about that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 04, 2021, 12:09:15 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 04, 2021, 12:07:22 PM
No it won't. They'll find another excuse.

If the 165M people in the US already vaccinated without any horror stories popping up hasn't made an impact, the FDA giving its stamp of approval won't do it.

I'd speculate on what some of those other excuses might be, but then 94 will get mad at me.

You just made the list, buddy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 04, 2021, 12:13:55 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 04, 2021, 12:08:02 PM
Maybe I'm cynical, but I think at this point, that's not likely to make any difference at all.  The people who aren't getting vaxed now, aren't going to change their minds when it's fully approved.  But I'd absolutely love to be wrong about that.
With full approval, some entities--states, the armed forces, et.al.--could start mandating vaccinations.  That could give some anti-vaxxers an excuse to get vaccinated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 04, 2021, 12:16:57 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 04, 2021, 12:13:55 PM
With full approval, some entities--states, the armed forces, et.al.--could start mandating vaccinations.  That could give some anti-vaxxers an excuse to get vaccinated.
and violate ones civil rights
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 04, 2021, 12:23:26 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 04, 2021, 12:16:57 PM
and violate ones civil rights
If you call being a potential Typhoid Mary a civil right, I guess so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 04, 2021, 12:47:12 PM
Austin/Travis County hospital numbers indicate that from 7/19 to 8/1, fully vaccinated individuals accounted for 16.55% of all COVID hospitalizations.  No breakdown on age, or ICU.

16.55% is quite a bit more than I expected and hoped.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 04, 2021, 12:55:32 PM
Delta seems above to break through more readily.  But as vaccination rates go up, so will break throughs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 04, 2021, 01:09:16 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 04, 2021, 12:47:12 PM
Austin/Travis County hospital numbers indicate that from 7/19 to 8/1, fully vaccinated individuals accounted for 16.55% of all COVID hospitalizations.  No breakdown on age, or ICU.

16.55% is quite a bit more than I expected and hoped. 

3 percent here in Florida.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 04, 2021, 01:14:10 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 04, 2021, 12:07:22 PM
No it won't. They'll find another excuse.

If the 165M people in the US already vaccinated without any horror stories popping up hasn't made an impact, the FDA giving its stamp of approval won't do it.

I'd speculate on what some of those other excuses might be, but then 94 will get mad at me.

I choose optimism. Too much negative shit out there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 04, 2021, 01:31:54 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 04, 2021, 12:47:12 PM
Austin/Travis County hospital numbers indicate that from 7/19 to 8/1, fully vaccinated individuals accounted for 16.55% of all COVID hospitalizations.  No breakdown on age, or ICU.

16.55% is quite a bit more than I expected and hoped. 

it's not great, but 83% apparently had not been vaccinated
that's really not great
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 04, 2021, 01:34:57 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/wAMutYY.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 04, 2021, 01:37:19 PM
might have to fact check that ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 04, 2021, 01:41:54 PM
Sure.

X-rays Show Difference in COVID-19 Cases Between Vaccinated and Unvaccinated Patients (yahoo.com) (https://news.yahoo.com/x-rays-show-difference-covid-210338837.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 04, 2021, 02:01:49 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 04, 2021, 12:47:12 PM
Austin/Travis County hospital numbers indicate that from 7/19 to 8/1, fully vaccinated individuals accounted for 16.55% of all COVID hospitalizations.  No breakdown on age, or ICU.

16.55% is quite a bit more than I expected and hoped. 

Yeah, more than I'd like to see to be sure...

Travis County is 57% vaccinated: https://www.statesman.com/story/news/local/2021/07/28/gda-covid-19-vaccine-doses-austin-tx-update/5403393001/

So 43% of the population accounts for >83% of the hospitalizations, and 57% accounts for <17%. 

Definitely shows you the vaccine is helping. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 04, 2021, 02:05:28 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 04, 2021, 02:01:49 PM
Yeah, more than I'd like to see to be sure...

Travis County is 57% vaccinated: https://www.statesman.com/story/news/local/2021/07/28/gda-covid-19-vaccine-doses-austin-tx-update/5403393001/

So 43% of the population accounts for >83% of the hospitalizations, and 57% accounts for <17%.

Definitely shows you the vaccine is helping.
why can't this be the message?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 04, 2021, 02:13:02 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 04, 2021, 02:01:49 PM
Yeah, more than I'd like to see to be sure...

Travis County is 57% vaccinated: https://www.statesman.com/story/news/local/2021/07/28/gda-covid-19-vaccine-doses-austin-tx-update/5403393001/

So 43% of the population accounts for >83% of the hospitalizations, and 57% accounts for <17%.

Definitely shows you the vaccine is helping.

It does, but the %mix is still a lot higher than I expected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 04, 2021, 04:59:34 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 04, 2021, 01:09:16 PM
3 percent here in Florida.
Is that because of a low vaccination rate?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 04, 2021, 05:47:05 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 04, 2021, 04:59:34 PM
Is that because of a low vaccination rate?
No- because Florida does not have low vaccination rates. 

Running right at the national average and ranked 24 out of 51 ( states and D.C.), and quite a bit better than that on elderly and susceptible ( where Florida focused from the beginning)

not sure the travelers in Florida from out of state count in the base- but it is a meaningful number of people present. Also don’t know if the thousands and thousands of new illegals that have been shipped here from the border, are counting in the base, and the majority of those came from countries with extremely low vaccination rates.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 04, 2021, 06:24:40 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 04, 2021, 05:47:05 PM
No- because Florida does not have low vaccination rates.

Running right at the national average and ranked 24 out of 51 ( states and D.C.), and quite a bit better than that on elderly and susceptible ( where Florida focused from the beginning)

not sure the travelers in Florida from out of state count in the base- but it is a meaningful number of people present. Also don’t know if the thousands and thousands of new illegals that have been shipped here from the border, are counting in the base, and the majority of those came from countries with extremely low vaccination rates. 
I've seen estimates of up to 300K illegals shipped here so far. Most are in the North and central, supposedly, which is where the hospitals are filling up.

Florida is 60% vaccinated. Age 50-59 is 67%. Age 60-64 is 76%. 65+ is 85%. These groups account for 47% of Florida's population. 65+ is 24% on its own. And the state is #26 in deaths/million population. Remarkable performance, in my opinion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 04, 2021, 08:24:18 PM
This isn't Coronavirus talk and it's inevitably political, so please take the discussion to In The News or something.

Thank You For Your Support
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 04, 2021, 08:40:45 PM
And we're done here.  Now it's all getting deleted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 04, 2021, 09:03:34 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 04, 2021, 08:40:45 PM
And we're done here.  Now it's all getting deleted.

Im very proud of the fact I wasnt a part of any of it


:cool2:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 05, 2021, 09:39:53 AM
you and me, brother!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 05, 2021, 09:50:50 AM
Hopefully it's cresting in Europe now and we'll follow in 2-3 weeks.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on August 05, 2021, 09:58:45 AM
In other good news, both of the mRNA vaccines will be going for full FDA approval by the end of the month.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 05, 2021, 10:16:04 AM
about time

I don't think it will change many individual's minds, but some companies and government agencies may decide to require vaccination
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on August 05, 2021, 10:18:26 AM
For all the bashing of Texas and Florida over their past month of rising Covid cases, blamed on their governor’s reluctance to mandate masks or vaccines, remember last year when the summer rise (mid-June through mid-August) was in very large part due to a spike in cases/deaths across the sunnier SOUTHERN STATES that are currently seeing the same rise this summer as well???

Texas, Florida, Georgia, Arizona, and Southern California (despite CA’s more reactive lockdowns and mandates) all had major summer spikes strong enough to drive the national numbers up (see below).

Fast forward to now and the same summer rise is occurring across the south while the Northern states, to include Northern California, remain stable; their spikes cycled more severely across different seasons, notably early in the pandemic (spring 2020) and throughout their very fatal late fall/early winter surge.

TL;dR – Cable News linking specific state surges to governors they don’t like ignores how 2021’s geographic Covid surges are mirroring 2020’s.

(https://i.imgur.com/0wNZa6U.png)




States ranked by new cases recorded Aug 4

(https://i.imgur.com/DMoufc2.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 05, 2021, 10:36:37 AM
Huh. The three highest population states in the USA happen to have the three highest daily new case rates in the USA. 

Great work, Columbo. :57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 05, 2021, 10:39:52 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 05, 2021, 10:36:37 AM
Huh. The three highest population states in the USA happen to have the three highest daily new case rates in the USA.

Great work, Columbo. :57:
It's shocking, I tell you!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 05, 2021, 10:51:09 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 05, 2021, 09:50:50 AM
Hopefully it's cresting in Europe now and we'll follow in 2-3 weeks.
Is the reason to think that is the case, as opposed to hoping that it is?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 05, 2021, 10:56:32 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on August 05, 2021, 09:58:45 AM
In other good news, both of the mRNA vaccines will be going for full FDA approval by the end of the month.
Old news. ;)

(upthread)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 05, 2021, 11:01:46 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on August 05, 2021, 10:18:26 AM
States ranked by new cases recorded Aug 4

(https://i.imgur.com/DMoufc2.png)
I think it's better to rate by deaths per million. That's the ultimate measurement in this thing.

(https://i.imgur.com/lFsKLWI.png)

No Texas, Cali or Florida to be seen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 05, 2021, 11:02:16 AM
This guy has the solution.

Column: A simple plan to end U.S. vaccine hesitancy: Serve the COVID vaccine deep-fried on a stick - NewsBreak (https://www.newsbreak.com/news/2331699302485/column-a-simple-plan-to-end-u-s-vaccine-hesitancy-serve-the-covid-vaccine-deep-fried-on-a-stick)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 05, 2021, 11:26:45 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 05, 2021, 11:02:16 AM
This guy has the solution.

Column: A simple plan to end U.S. vaccine hesitancy: Serve the COVID vaccine deep-fried on a stick - NewsBreak (https://www.newsbreak.com/news/2331699302485/column-a-simple-plan-to-end-u-s-vaccine-hesitancy-serve-the-covid-vaccine-deep-fried-on-a-stick)

We made jokes at the NASCAR race at COTA in Austin a couple months ago, just use a drone with vaccine-darts and hit everybody in the joint a few times.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 05, 2021, 12:09:38 PM
put the vaccine in Busch light cans and take care of the state of Iowa
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 05, 2021, 12:23:34 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 05, 2021, 10:51:09 AM
Is the reason to think that is the case, as opposed to hoping that it is?
I believe there is reason to think it has peaked in Europe, and of course India which was hit earlier is way down now.  Spain went up earlier than France and MAY be ebbing now.  And the UK appears to be on a downslope.


Spain COVID: 4,545,184 Cases and 81,844 Deaths - Worldometer (worldometers.info)
 (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 05, 2021, 12:33:54 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 05, 2021, 12:23:34 PM
I believe there is reason to think it has peaked in Europe, and of course India which was hit earlier is way down now.  Spain went up earlier than France and MAY be ebbing now.  And the UK appears to be on a downslope.


Spain COVID: 4,545,184 Cases and 81,844 Deaths - Worldometer (worldometers.info)
 (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/)
I think he's asking, is there a reason to think the US will follow the UK curve, rather than us just hoping it will happen?  Here's the current graph of the two countries overlaid.  We've been somewhat aligned since last October, until this most recent wave, when they started before us.


(https://i.imgur.com/8O3Wl5K.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 05, 2021, 12:44:47 PM
Hope, with some evidence.  India is particularly notable I think.  It comes and goes like a banshee.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 05, 2021, 06:59:12 PM
So, the elephant starting to prepare to enter the room…..

With Delta variant spreading rapidly in 40 of 50 states, and the CFB season 1 month away…

Will we have fans in the stadium and under what, if any limitations?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 05, 2021, 07:02:31 PM
Vaccinated folks should be free to go do whatever they like.  That was the purpose of the vaccine.

Unvaccinated folks should stay home.

Play ball!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 05, 2021, 07:06:42 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 05, 2021, 06:59:12 PM
So, the elephant starting to prepare to enter the room…..

With Delta variant spreading rapidly in 40 of 50 states, and the CFB season 1 month away…

Will we have fans in the stadium and under what, if any limitations?
weve got MLB going strong right now drawing at least 15 to 25 thousand per game every night 

not sure its going to stop with college FB

as I pointed out in another post we are nearing 70% vaccinated of folks over 18 who have never had the virus

our low death and hospitalization rates support the fact that herd immunity has started
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 05, 2021, 07:17:53 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 05, 2021, 07:06:42 PM
weve got MLB going strong right now drawing at least 15 to 25 thousand per game every night

not sure its going to stop with college FB

as I pointed out in another post we are nearing 70% vaccinated of folks over 18 who have never had the virus

our low death and hospitalization rates support the fact that herd immunity has started

Hospitalizations are surging in Austin.  Mostly the unvaccinated. 

They're surging in Houston, too.  See chart below.

Folks really should get vaccinated so they can 1) stay out of the hospital and 2) go to football games.


(https://i.imgur.com/IU5h3tv.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 05, 2021, 07:19:43 PM
Did you hear the SEC is going to make fans show their vaccination cards to enter the stadium?


Nah... I didn't either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 05, 2021, 09:02:46 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 05, 2021, 07:19:43 PM
Did you hear the SEC is going to make fans show their vaccination cards to enter the stadium?


Nah... I didn't either.
😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on August 05, 2021, 09:40:43 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 05, 2021, 07:19:43 PM
Did you hear the SEC is going to make fans show their vaccination cards to enter the stadium?


Nah... I didn't either.
Why should they? People that want the vaccine can easily and readily get it. 

If you're deathly afraid of COVID- either get the vaccine or don't leave your house. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on August 05, 2021, 10:03:22 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 05, 2021, 10:36:37 AM
Huh. The three highest population states in the USA happen to have the three highest daily new case rates in the USA.

Great work, Columbo. :57:

You’re smarter than this, @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19).

(re-)Read the idea that was presented – different geographies have reacted at different times of the year with surges. For two summers now the southern half of our nation’s population has notably suffered surges while the northern half’s surges took place early in the pandemic (spring 2020) and throughout their very fatal late fall/early winter surge. It’s worth asking why, especially with the cycle repeating. (The differing north/south surges even played out within the state of California.)

Simplifying the question into an explanation of only state populations misses how disproportionately the southern states are suffering their 2nd summer surge, for example throughout the smaller populations of Arkansas and especially with Mississippi and Louisiana having new case rates in the top 10 despite populations ranked at #34 and #25 respectively (see below for Aug 5 new case counts ranked by state).

You and I even touched on this idea of a “geographic cycle” somewhere back around thread page 400 or 500 hundred.

All in all, as @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5)’s table showed, New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island still lead the nation in Deaths/1M despite the South’s greater Summer surges.

(https://i.imgur.com/D4VsGgt.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 05, 2021, 10:56:20 PM
This is a link to a very good covid cases vs deaths site

you can go to the upper left of the screen and select any state or national

https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-map
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 06, 2021, 12:34:54 AM
@CatsbyAZ (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1532) I was just messing with you. It would have been a lot of work to perform substantive analysis so I went for sarcasm.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on August 06, 2021, 12:56:03 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 05, 2021, 07:06:42 PM
weve got MLB going strong right now drawing at least 15 to 25 thousand per game every night

not sure its going to stop with college FB

as I pointed out in another post we are nearing 70% vaccinated of folks over 18 who have never had the virus

our low death and hospitalization rates support the fact that herd immunity has started
My rural county is 51% vaccinated of those over 12.  24 new cases the past 7-days, 17,500 population. We are increasing fast. But, in December, 24 in a day was normal. Many of us have common sense. Many others enjoy propaganda. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 06, 2021, 01:28:46 AM
Quote from: utee94 on August 05, 2021, 12:33:54 PM
I think he's asking, is there a reason to think the US will follow the UK curve, rather than us just hoping it will happen?  Here's the current graph of the two countries overlaid.  We've been somewhat aligned since last October, until this most recent wave, when they started before us.


(https://i.imgur.com/8O3Wl5K.png)
I like that chart.  I hope that our curve follows the UK's.
School year's about to start, and where I teach is anti-mask, anti-vax, and anti-distant learning.
As I've said earlier, I've got my shots, I've got a good immune system, and I've got O+ blood, which seems to be the best to have with this virus.
But not so with any of that except the shots where my wife is concerned.  I don't want to have a case of it I don't even know I have and give it to her.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 06, 2021, 01:35:22 AM
Regarding the idea that we have constitutional rights not to be vaccinated. . .


Quote
The Supreme Court addressed the question of whether mandatory vaccinations violated the Constitution back in 1905 and the most shocking thing about that opinion is how little things have changed.

In Jacobson v. Massachusetts, the Court decided that mandatory vaccinations were perfectly constitutional and an important tool of public health. Henning Jacobson, an early anti-vaxxer, refused to be vaccinated for smallpox. Just like anti-vaxxers do today about the COVID vaccine, he argued that the smallpox vaccine didn’t work.

As a factual matter, this claim has not aged well—but it was considered ridiculous even at the time. While Jacobson offered evidence of “the general theory of those of the medical profession who attach little or no value to vaccination as a means of preventing the spread of smallpox . . . this court knows, that an opposite theory accords with the common belief and is maintained by high medical authority.”
It's from this article, which I do not want to post in its entirety as there's an allusion to political ideology relating to anti-vaxxism in one paragraph.


Anti-Vaxx Herp Derp (https://www.thebulwark.com/the-anti-vaxx-herp-derp/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 06, 2021, 06:34:01 AM
Moderna, which is the vaxx I happened to get, now projecting a needed booster shot after 6 months. They are seeing a meaningful decline in efficacy like Phizer.

I heard some discussion that we might be able to mix and match ( so get the Phizer booster if you had the Moderna vaccine, and vice versa)

That would be good.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on August 06, 2021, 07:26:53 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 05, 2021, 06:59:12 PM
So, the elephant starting to prepare to enter the room…..

With Delta variant spreading rapidly in 40 of 50 states, and the CFB season 1 month away…

Will we have fans in the stadium and under what, if any limitations?
Hopefully none. It is my strong belief that while we will get rises and falls for infections, especially come winter, they won't be anywhere near as problematic as over the past year. Of course, how that translates to policy is a great question, and yet again depends more on who is in charge than anything.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 06, 2021, 07:53:20 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 04, 2021, 09:03:34 PM
Im very proud of the fact I wasnt a part of any of it


:cool2:
Seems I miss all the fun
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 06, 2021, 08:32:20 AM
I was noodling the idea of showing up and getting a shot, again, the third, I read somewhere some folks are doing that because otherwise they go into the trash.

I got my second pneumonia shot Wednesday and my arm was sore for a couple days, still is a bit.  But pneumonia is a killer potentially.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on August 06, 2021, 08:38:42 AM
I have personally known 10 people who have died from COVID, including my dad and my uncle. I ask around and other people tell me they don’t know anybody. I’m astounded by this.  I can’t understand whether I just know a whole lot more people and have a larger family or what?  

So I’d like to ask everybody to respond:  How many people do you personally know who have died from COVID?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on August 06, 2021, 08:40:51 AM
Quote from: Gigem on August 06, 2021, 08:38:42 AM
I have personally known 10 people who have died from COVID, including my dad and my uncle. I ask around and other people tell me they don’t know anybody. I’m astounded by this.  I can’t understand whether I just know a whole lot more people and have a larger family or what? 

So I’d like to ask everybody to respond:  How many people do you personally know who have died from COVID? 
I can only think of 1, an attorney. No one in my close family. A bailiff ended up in the ICU for some time but recovered.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 06, 2021, 08:42:28 AM
Yeah, I don't know anyone who passed from Covid. I do know my former neighbor was close. He still has lung problems, and it's been 8 months. He did have 3 underlying issues, and he's 75.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 06, 2021, 08:49:11 AM
I don't know anyone that died from it, either.

Both of my inlaws had it (80+ years old), and apparently my 13yo daughter had it at some point because she showed antibodies before we got her the vaccine.  It was obviously an asymptomatic case and nobody else in the family ever showed any symptoms as a result of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 06, 2021, 09:01:19 AM
I have a friend in France who was in ICU for about a week with it.  My kid in Texas had it pretty bad very early but didn't go to the hospital.

Nobody in our building had it, that is known.  Everyone seems to be vaccinated.  We're back on masks again in the elevator, but folks are a bit casual about it now.

The building is changing we're told, a decade plus ago nearly everyone was gay, I'm told, and then families started moving in, and straight folks, and the gays were somewhat ruffled about it, but now nobody cares.  We don't have many families still, few young kids, which is fine with me.  I see one Asian family with two small kids but they seem quiet, I wave at the kids and they stare back at me.  The parents smile and tell them to wave.

On occasion, someone will invite guests over to use the pool and one group has little ones.  Everything here is still "open", folks are tired of the restrictions, but will wear a mask when asked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 06, 2021, 09:10:49 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/6ZF6Bc4.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 06, 2021, 09:24:25 AM
a very good friend of mine died from COVID, 55 years old.

found out after going on a ventilator that he had leukemia

a few other folks I know have died recently and I wonder if it was COVID, but that info wasn't given.  I didn't ask. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 06, 2021, 09:26:38 AM
I knew 2 personally but not close family or friends.  I have another who is right on the edge as we speak- not looking good.  😔
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on August 06, 2021, 10:05:26 AM
I heard of somebody else who found out they were terminally ill while in the hospital for COVID.  This person, who I didn't personally know, had some kind of stage 4 cancer they did not know about.  They went into the hospital for COVID and the cancer was discovered there.  So obviously their immune system was weakened, but they died from COVID.  So how do you count that one?  

They would have probably died within 6 or so months with the cancer, so I'm going with death by COVID.  There is also the chance they would have recovered from the cancer.  Not likely but sometimes people do beat the odds.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 06, 2021, 10:21:14 AM
I'm not concerned with how it's counted, but I don't have a political agenda 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 06, 2021, 10:46:37 AM
Quote from: Gigem on August 06, 2021, 10:05:26 AM
I heard of somebody else who found out they were terminally ill while in the hospital for COVID.  This person, who I didn't personally know, had some kind of stage 4 cancer they did not know about.  They went into the hospital for COVID and the cancer was discovered there.  So obviously their immune system was weakened, but they died from COVID.  So how do you count that one? 

They would have probably died within 6 or so months with the cancer, so I'm going with death by COVID.  There is also the chance they would have recovered from the cancer.  Not likely but sometimes people do beat the odds. 
In most cases, that is brain cancer. You don't know it until it's too late.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 06, 2021, 11:00:34 AM
UK and Spain both appear to be turning down, France MAY be at a peak now, I hope.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 06, 2021, 11:01:46 AM
Interesting, to me.

Hospitals Say 88 To 95 Percent Of COVID-19 Patients Unvaccinated (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/hospitals-say-88-to-95-percent-of-covid-19-patients-unvaccinated/ar-AAMYW4M?ocid=msedgntp)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 06, 2021, 11:13:48 AM
https://twitter.com/BearTrapsReport/status/1420808478663356417
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 06, 2021, 11:17:50 AM
What happens in Europe ... gets over here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 06, 2021, 11:43:14 AM
Austin started increasing right at July 4th so we're a little ahead I'd say, we're over 30 days in. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 06, 2021, 12:02:18 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 06, 2021, 11:43:14 AM
Austin started increasing right at July 4th so we're a little ahead I'd say, we're over 30 days in.
Same over here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 06, 2021, 12:44:19 PM
I have no explanation for the decline in India.  Maybe folks get it and don't know it and they reach herd quickly?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 06, 2021, 01:26:56 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 06, 2021, 12:44:19 PM
I have no explanation for the decline in India.  Maybe folks get it and don't know it and they reach herd quickly?
Lots of speculation that the Delta variant burns through the population hotter and faster.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on August 06, 2021, 01:37:31 PM
So last night I was talking to a cousin who lives up in North Carolina.  Anyways she was telling us she got a job and this and that.  After talking for awhile I asked her if she had her vaccination yet and she said no, she was scared to get the vaccination.  I told her there was nothing to be scared about etc but she just was having none of it.  She's not an extreme person, not overly political etc.  She just doesn't trust the vaccine, yet.  She's said she's waiting to see down the road at least several years before she gets it, if ever. 

She then told me that this is going to sound horrible but she faked a vaccination card for her new job.  She did not want to take the vaccine but had to for her new job so she basically forged a card.  I have no idea the chances of getting caught etc, I feel like they are pretty low unless they really dig into the details which I feel they won't.  

So there's that...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 06, 2021, 01:42:25 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 06, 2021, 01:26:56 PM
Lots of speculation that the Delta variant burns through the population hotter and faster.
And often with milder symptoms, perhaps, so it spreads fast and burns out early.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on August 06, 2021, 01:49:08 PM
Quote from: Gigem on August 06, 2021, 08:38:42 AM
I have personally known 10 people who have died from COVID, including my dad and my uncle. I ask around and other people tell me they don’t know anybody. I’m astounded by this.  I can’t understand whether I just know a whole lot more people and have a larger family or what? 

So I’d like to ask everybody to respond:  How many people do you personally know who have died from COVID? 
I know a large number of people (Counted 30 without thinking) who got Covid, none of them have died. Only one was hospitalized.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on August 06, 2021, 02:43:35 PM
I’ve known so many people who got covid I couldn’t count them all. Certainly more than 30. It would probably be easier for me to count the people I know who haven’t had covid. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 06, 2021, 03:30:59 PM
I mean, I know OF people that got it. But in my closest circles of family and friends, it's just my inlaws, and my 13yo daughter.

Well, and then of course, almost ALL of the college-aged kids of my friends, have gotten it.  College kids don't know about no covids.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 06, 2021, 03:58:00 PM
We got some guidance from our superintendent a couple of days ago:


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 06, 2021, 04:12:04 PM
Quote from: Gigem on August 06, 2021, 01:37:31 PM
She then told me that this is going to sound horrible but she faked a vaccination card for her new job.  She did not want to take the vaccine but had to for her new job so she basically forged a card.  I have no idea the chances of getting caught etc, I feel like they are pretty low unless they really dig into the details which I feel they won't. 

So there's that...
CNN has fired three employees who violated company policy by coming to work unvaccinated against the COVID-19 virus.

CNN chief Jeff Zucker told staff members of the firing in a memo sent Thursday that reminded them that vaccines were mandatory if they report to the office or out in the field where they come into contact with other employees.

"Let me be clear — we have a zero tolerance policy on this," wrote Zucker, chairman of news and sports for WarnerMedia.

The memo was obtained by The Associated Press after its contents were first tweeted by CNN media reporter Oliver Darcy. CNN offered no details on the firings, or where the employees were based.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 06, 2021, 04:58:27 PM
I'm getting conflicting info on whether HR can ask people whether they've been vaccinated or not... 

Our official policy in everywhere except the Bay Area (where the local counties have enacted more stringent policies) is that vaccinated people don't need to wear masks, and unvaccinated do. To enter the building you have to give a daily self-attestation of health where one of the questions is whether you're vaccinated, but "I decline to state" is actually an answer that you can select. Emails from HR have said that if you're not wearing a mask you can be required to provide proof of vaccination (with consequences up to and including termination if you're non-masked without being vaccinated), but my new manager has said that's bluster and they can't legally ask. 

One of the members of the new team that I'm on just got COVID. She's a young-mid 20s healthy female and apparently lost taste and smell and has been horribly fatigued for over a week now--her boyfriend was the opposite, taste and smell ok but 103 fever. Sounds like it's been pretty rough for her, but obviously not hospital/ventilator rough.

I've spent the last week wondering whether she was vaccinated but wasn't going to ask... Then we had a [virtual] meet & greet with the SVP and she brought it up and *he* asked, and apparently she's not vaccinated. 

So it apparently doesn't completely leave young people alone. But I'll bet her prognosis would have been a lot better with the shot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 06, 2021, 05:02:40 PM
I've mentioned my brother who thinks COVID is nothing much to worry about and won't get the vaccine because he'd rather trust his own immune system. 

He's a pilot for United. United just announced that they're going to mandate that all US employees be vaccinated as soon as the vaccines receive full FDA approval, which is impending. 

I'm seeing him tomorrow... Should I needle him over it? Or would that cause a scene as we're celebrating his wife's 50th birthday? :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 06, 2021, 05:57:02 PM
I'd definitely needle my brother

but, off to the side as to not cause too much of a scene
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 06, 2021, 06:24:54 PM
never ski[ a chance to lay smack on your brother
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 06, 2021, 06:26:48 PM
Also, you might just keep him from getting sick!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 06, 2021, 07:51:08 PM
Three things to know about the long-term side effects of COVID vaccines

https://www.uab.edu/news/health/item/12143-three-things-to-know-about-the-long-term-side-effects-of-covid-vaccines?fbclid=IwAR2Dxzq2cDbvlmjVVXRtYkyKUO1wl7UntGmASYXwFAakaS_O5fwf-Da7IOs (https://www.uab.edu/news/health/item/12143-three-things-to-know-about-the-long-term-side-effects-of-covid-vaccines?fbclid=IwAR2Dxzq2cDbvlmjVVXRtYkyKUO1wl7UntGmASYXwFAakaS_O5fwf-Da7IOs)

In his nearly 30 years studying vaccines, Paul Goepfert, M.D., director of the Alabama Vaccine Research Clinic at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, has never seen any vaccine as effective as the three COVID vaccines — from Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson — currently available in the United States.

“A 90 percent decrease in risk of infections, and 94 percent effectiveness against hospitalization for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines is fantastic,” he said.

But what makes vaccine experts such as Goepfert confident that COVID vaccines are safe in the long term? We have all seen billboards and TV infomercials from law firms seeking people harmed by diet drugs or acid-reflux medicines for class-action lawsuits. What makes Goepfert think that scientists would not discover previously unsuspected problems caused by COVID vaccines in the years ahead?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on August 07, 2021, 02:09:13 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 06, 2021, 05:02:40 PM
I've mentioned my brother who thinks COVID is nothing much to worry about and won't get the vaccine because he'd rather trust his own immune system.

He's a pilot for United. United just announced that they're going to mandate that all US employees be vaccinated as soon as the vaccines receive full FDA approval, which is impending.

I'm seeing him tomorrow... Should I needle him over it? Or would that cause a scene as we're celebrating his wife's 50th birthday? :)
Oh, the media makes too much of 675,000 deaths. WTF????

If it were an in-law I would be cautious. If it were a brother, if his attitude could not be otherwise improved, a foot up the ass  might feel good for you, bring closure for him, and rectify his resistance and hesitancy. If it didn't at least you would feel better for trying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 07, 2021, 02:53:57 AM
Quote from: Gigem on August 06, 2021, 01:37:31 PM
So last night I was talking to a cousin who lives up in North Carolina.  Anyways she was telling us she got a job and this and that.  After talking for awhile I asked her if she had her vaccination yet and she said no, she was scared to get the vaccination.  I told her there was nothing to be scared about etc but she just was having none of it.  She's not an extreme person, not overly political etc.  She just doesn't trust the vaccine, yet.  She's said she's waiting to see down the road at least several years before she gets it, if ever.
Never in the history of vaccinations has a detrimental side effect "appeared" several years after its release.  The time for "wait and see" is about 2 months.  
But I'm sure that doesn't matter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 07, 2021, 07:35:41 AM
New Data Suggest J. & J. Vaccine Works Against Delta - The New York Times (nytimes.com) (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/06/science/johnson-delta-vaccine-booster.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 07, 2021, 07:59:13 AM
old data also suggests this

in a couple weeks there will be newer data that suggests the same thing

perhaps it's more than a suggestion?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 07, 2021, 09:25:37 AM
UK and Spain continue to drift lower, France may have peaked, Brazil is drifting lower, India has drifted and is low now.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on August 07, 2021, 11:22:42 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 05, 2021, 06:59:12 PM
So, the elephant starting to prepare to enter the room…..

With Delta variant spreading rapidly in 40 of 50 states, and the CFB season 1 month away…

Will we have fans in the stadium and under what, if any limitations?

Since I already have or will have tickets for a number of college football games going into this season, it’s worth wondering if there’s enough time for a University to enforce vaccine proof in order to attend their campus sporting events. Minding their political geography, my guess to their likelihood is as follows, based on the following home games:

Sept 4: Eugene Oregon – 50/50 but closer to %100 if this were a November game

Sept 11: Ames Iowa – 15% though maybe up to 30% if in November?

Sept 25: Tempe Arizona – 5%

October 9: Auburn Alabama – 0%

November 13: Bloomington Indiana – 30%
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on August 07, 2021, 12:12:42 PM
https://twitter.com/dhmontgomery/status/1424034663459393542?s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 07, 2021, 12:19:25 PM
HOPEFULLY this is the peak here.

(https://i.imgur.com/NV4XNGw.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 07, 2021, 12:21:44 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/mKg0cJA.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 07, 2021, 01:56:59 PM
There's a growing number of people on a Longhorn message board I frequent, that are going in for a 3rd shot, a booster.  They're either lying, or the places just aren't asking about their previous history.

It's not FDA approved and it's not CDC recommended yet, although there are some studies indicating it might provide some benefit.  

So... what are our feelings on this?  I'm mixed, I admit.

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1424022796015910915

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 07, 2021, 02:02:21 PM
I have thought about it myself if I knew they otherwise would go to waste.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 07, 2021, 02:04:20 PM
As many of us have said, the mark of severity is how many go to the hospital.  If you have a lot of mild cases, it's not nearly as bad.  I hope the story is that a lot of folks are getting it in a very mild form.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 07, 2021, 02:05:47 PM
I think that's mostly the case. Hospitalizations are up here, but ICU beds are plentiful (so far).

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 07, 2021, 02:07:04 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 07, 2021, 02:02:21 PM
I have thought about it myself if I knew they otherwise would go to waste.
I have my annual physical in October. If my doctor says do it, I certainly will.

We are going to Europe in November (I hope??).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 07, 2021, 02:08:29 PM
I just got my second pneumonia shot.  My arm was quite sore for a couple days.  Didn't expect that, did not feel fatigued though.

I suspect we'll hear clearance for a third shot in a couple months for a portion of the population (geezers).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 07, 2021, 02:11:28 PM
Our ICU beds are running short, but a lot of it is non-COVID.  Unlike  year ago when a lot of people were staying largely at home or at least minimizing their outings, now folks are out and about, getting in car wrecks and other stuff, filling up the ICUs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 07, 2021, 02:14:48 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 07, 2021, 02:07:04 PM
I have my annual physical in October. If my doctor says do it, I certainly will.

We are going to Europe in November (I hope??).

Doctors aren't recommending it now, because it's not FDA approved.  If/when it does become FDA approved, that's when we'll see what doctors are recommending.

Like CD said, I expect they'll recommend for the older population.  Not sure about younger folks.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 07, 2021, 02:46:57 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 07, 2021, 02:14:48 PM
Doctors aren't recommending it now, because it's not FDA approved.  If/when it does become FDA approved, that's when we'll see what doctors are recommending.

Like CD said, I expect they'll recommend for the older population.  Not sure about younger folks.



Down here, the original vaccines were open to 65+ pretty early on, right after front liners all got theirs.

Then in mid-March it opened for anyone 50+. I got mine on the first day it opened up, and I would do it again without hesitation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 07, 2021, 02:53:33 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 07, 2021, 02:46:57 PM
Down here, the original vaccines were open to 65+ pretty early on, right after front liners all got theirs.

Then in mid-March it opened for anyone 50+. I got mine on the first day it opened up, and I would do it again without hesitation.

I'm fine with getting a booster once it's approved and my doctor recommends.  What I'm not sure of, is about going rogue and getting it now.

I'm not sure the science is there yet.  I've seen the studies that show increased antibodies after a booster, which of course makes sense.  You could get 5 boosters and I'd expect antibodies to increase after each one.

What I don't really know, though, is about OUTCOMES.  Are they improved with boosters?  Is the improvement statistically significant?  There might be studies out there that show this, I haven't seen one but also haven't looked too hard.

I just feel like a lot of people are falling into a "more must be better trap" without really evaluating if the outcomes are significantly improved.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 07, 2021, 02:58:03 PM
Agreed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 07, 2021, 03:01:44 PM
On surlyhorns, the people who are going rogue and getting the 3rd shot, are also many of the same people that lied about their health conditions in order to jump the line and get the first shot early.  They're this almost militant group of folks, sort of the anti-anti-vaxers.

Not sure why people feel like they must be so extreme on both sides.  It's weird to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 07, 2021, 03:05:19 PM
I hadn't really considered it much... Since I'm nowhere near 6 months having the vaccine, I haven't really looked at boosters. My wife got hers starting back in Dec/Jan timeframe, so it's potentially more meaningful for her now. 

I will say that if someone's jumping the line, I don't really blame them as it's not like we're so constrained on vaccine availability that they're taking it from someone who wants it...

...but they should be paying for it. It is currently considered an unapproved and not yet determined to be medically necessary shot. That shouldn't be funded by the US Government nor should insurance companies foot the bill for it. 

I'll bet if a lot of these people knew they'd get, say, a $100 bill for the shot after the fact, they might change their tune. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 07, 2021, 03:51:09 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 07, 2021, 03:05:19 PM
I hadn't really considered it much... Since I'm nowhere near 6 months having the vaccine, I haven't really looked at boosters. My wife got hers starting back in Dec/Jan timeframe, so it's potentially more meaningful for her now.

I will say that if someone's jumping the line, I don't really blame them as it's not like we're so constrained on vaccine availability that they're taking it from someone who wants it...

...but they should be paying for it. It is currently considered an unapproved and not yet determined to be medically necessary shot. That shouldn't be funded by the US Government nor should insurance companies foot the bill for it.

I'll bet if a lot of these people knew they'd get, say, a $100 bill for the shot after the fact, they might change their tune.


Probably so.

They're rationalizing it now by saying "Well, we have plenty of vaccine inventory, so I'm not taking it away from someone that needs it."

They rationalized their line-jumping back in Feb/March by blaming the governor for easing off the statewide mask mandate. They decided that if the government wasn't going to "look out for them" then they had to take it into their own hands. At that time, it was commonplace to take a week or two just to get an appointment to stand in line for 3-4 hours, and there were still a lot of unvaxed needy seniors and people with true, actual health concerns.  But the line-jumpers didn't care then and they don't care now.

Like I said, they're almost militant and pretty much the anti-anti-vaxers.  It's weird.  Given what we know about highly mitigated risks with respect to severe illness when you have the vaccine, even with the Delta variant, it seems premature and potentially unnecessary.

If there were widely accepted science on their side I wouldn't call them out, but from what I've seen, there's not much evidence regarding statistically significant improvement to outcomes, from a 3rd/booster shot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 07, 2021, 05:57:31 PM
Two more of my employees got it. 

Young(high 30s) healthy.  One fully vaccinated, the other halfway between 1st and Second dose. 

Neither in too much danger although the not fully vaxxed one has much worse symptoms and briefly checked himself into hospital. 

Here is the irony/  both traveled to Chicago and came back with it. ( Separately) 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 07, 2021, 06:18:25 PM
Shhh, don't mention the children in FL.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 07, 2021, 07:18:29 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 07, 2021, 06:18:25 PM
Shhh, don't mention the children in FL.
What creepy idea are you trying to promote now son?   Did you forget your meds, again?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 08, 2021, 06:53:07 AM
The evidence supporting a third is mostly from blood work, antibody increases, which would be expected, and not necessarily necessary.

I find it ironic that we have some wanting a third shot coupled with some wanting no shot at all, it's a bit like masks, a political statement as much as anything rational.

Ironic and expected.  The park was crowded yesterday with the festival happening and maybe 5% were wearing masks.  It's outdoors at least.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 08, 2021, 09:22:55 AM
Well- a friend lost a father in law to covid yesterday. Fully vaccinated and quite healthy.  Mid 60s 

So- if there becomes solid data suggesting a booster protects us further, I would sign up. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 08, 2021, 09:43:47 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 07, 2021, 05:57:31 PM
Two more of my employees got it.

Young(high 30s) healthy.  One fully vaccinated, the other halfway between 1st and Second dose.

Neither in too much danger although the not fully vaxxed one has much worse symptoms and briefly checked himself into hospital.

Here is the irony/  both traveled to Chicago and came back with it. ( Separately)
Lolla, the superspreader?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 08, 2021, 09:58:15 AM
Maybe??  I had never even thought of that that’s a very likely possibility.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on August 08, 2021, 10:14:45 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 08, 2021, 09:22:55 AM
Well- a friend lost a father in law to covid yesterday. Fully vaccinated and quite healthy.  Mid 60s

So- if there becomes solid data suggesting a booster protects us further, I would sign up.
Unfortunately it’s going to happen. Sorry to hear this. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 08, 2021, 11:33:08 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 08, 2021, 06:53:07 AM

The evidence supporting a third is mostly from blood work, antibody increases, which would be expected, and not necessarily necessary.

I find it ironic that we have some wanting a third shot coupled with some wanting no shot at all, it's a bit like masks, a political statement as much as anything rational.

Ironic and expected.  The park was crowded yesterday with the festival happening and maybe 5% were wearing masks.  It's outdoors at least.

Yes, this is what I'm seeing.

Y'all are my research branch, though, and I know I can usually get an even-handed response from this board in toto.  So if you do see any studies that focus on improved OUTCOMES, I'd love to see them.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 08, 2021, 11:42:44 AM
I don't think there are enough people to assess outcomes, and perhaps they are not being tracked specifically.  Maybe Pfizer is doing a study.

Given that regularly vaccinated folks somewhat rarely contract COVID, you'd need a large base size, I think.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 08, 2021, 11:52:59 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 08, 2021, 11:42:44 AM
I don't think there are enough people to assess outcomes, and perhaps they are not being tracked specifically.  Maybe Pfizer is doing a study.

Given that regularly vaccinated folks somewhat rarely contract COVID, you'd need a large base size, I think.

Yeah, those are my assumptions as well.  I do recall a while back, Pfizer stating they were going to study it.  But it's not as simple as running controlled experiments.  A lot of real-world factors introduce confounding variables.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 09, 2021, 12:15:40 PM
So I finally convinced someone very near and dear to me- to get vaccinated. ( The final straw may have been my employee who was struggling- passed away this morning)

She has never been adverse to the vaccination in general, but just very afraid of shots and has a very high likelihood of getting a reaction.

Anyway, she likes the thought of the Johnson and Johnson single shot versus the two shots. She has done her research for which I give her credit but can’t find the Johnson and Johnson variety anywhere in our general market. 

It has been the one vaccine of the three with some actual minor statistical issues but still must be the favorite since it’s one shot. That’s my guess anyway as to why she can’t find it.  Signed up for Moderno sewer good to go
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 09, 2021, 12:18:38 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 09, 2021, 12:15:40 PM
So I finally convinced someone very near and dear to me- to get vaccinated. ( The final straw may have been my employee who was struggling- passed away this morning)

She has never been adverse to the vaccination in general, but just very afraid of shots and has a very high likelihood of getting a reaction.

Anyway, she likes the thought of the Johnson and Johnson single shot versus the two shots. She has done her research for which I give her credit but can’t find the Johnson and Johnson variety anywhere in our general market.

It has been the one vaccine of the three with some actual minor statistical issues but still must be the favorite since it’s one shot. That’s my guess anyway as to why she can’t find it.  Signed up for Moderno sewer good to go

I feel like the mRNA vaccines (Moderna and Pfizer) are going to end up providing protection against the widest variety of mutations, but that's not based on any peer reviewed studies, just my personal belief.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 09, 2021, 12:30:52 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 09, 2021, 12:18:38 PM
I feel like the mRNA vaccines (Moderna and Pfizer) are going to end up providing protection against the widest variety of mutations, but that's not based on any peer reviewed studies, just my personal belief.


Ditto.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 09, 2021, 01:17:09 PM
I don't know anyone down here who got J&J. Did Florida even get any?

There were no options in March. I showed up and asked "Whatcha got today?" and the lady said Moderna. 

I just told her to stick me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 09, 2021, 01:21:20 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 09, 2021, 01:17:09 PM
I don't know anyone down here who got J&J. Did Florida even get any?

There were no options in March. I showed up and asked "Whatcha got today?" and the lady said Moderna.

I just told her to stick me.
Yes- there must’ve been some at one time because if you check all the sites now they just say “out of stock“.  We called around but she’s getting the Moderna,which happens to be what I have. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 09, 2021, 01:28:57 PM
My kid in Texas was advised to get the J&J because he'd already had COVID.  I thought that interesting medical advice.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on August 09, 2021, 04:20:58 PM
About. Damn. Time.

https://twitter.com/dhmontgomery/status/1424826566580785159?s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 09, 2021, 04:29:27 PM
One thing that rather amazes me is how upset folks get at some agency or "expert" who "changes his tune" on guidance as new information surfaces.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 09, 2021, 04:51:41 PM
Flip-floppers!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 09, 2021, 05:27:12 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 09, 2021, 04:29:27 PM
One thing that rather amazes me is how upset folks get at some agency or "expert" who "changes his tune" on guidance as new information surfaces.


(https://i.imgur.com/Fkj4Tan.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 09, 2021, 05:41:32 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 09, 2021, 04:29:27 PM
One thing that rather amazes me is how upset folks get at some agency or "expert" who "changes his tune" on guidance as new information surfaces.
That's my MIL on Dr. Fauci.
"See, I told you he was a liar!  He's saying something completely different than what he said 15 months ago!"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 09, 2021, 06:35:16 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 09, 2021, 05:41:32 PM
That's my MIL on Dr. Fauci.
"See, I told you he was a liar!  He's saying something completely different than what he said 15 months ago!"
(https://i.imgur.com/Aeouma5.jpg)Hard to defend Dr Falsely.  Sorry. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 09, 2021, 08:40:54 PM
A meme doesn't constitute an argument, HB.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 09, 2021, 08:42:54 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 09, 2021, 08:40:54 PM
A meme doesn't constitute an argument, HB.
Do you even internet, bro?

#pwned 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 09, 2021, 08:53:06 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 09, 2021, 08:42:54 PM
Do you even internet, bro?

#pwned
Hmmm.

What does the verb "internet" mean?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 09, 2021, 09:16:46 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 09, 2021, 08:40:54 PM
A meme doesn't constitute an argument, HB.
True. It is challenging to respond in this thread where politics are not allowed even though my answer would not be political. Unfortunately it would be perceived that way.

let’s just say that the CDC and Fauci are not considered credible at all by many many millions of people who used to think they were. They have changed their position so many times without new data and consistently use the data they do have to interpret one situation different than the other.

Today Fauci said he was “hopeful” that mask wearing will not have long-term harm on the children in schools. In addition to being a new flip-flop it runs against what the science already has told us.

also, look at his reaction this weekend to highly attended events and you will see what is obvious about picking in choosing which events to condemn and which events to ignore.

I couldn’t care less about the politics if there are any but it’s easy to see why he is a laughing stock to so many people now.
Quote from: CWSooner on August 09, 2021, 08:40:54 PM
A meme doesn't constitute an argument, HB.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 09, 2021, 09:32:33 PM
Talking about actions, reactions, causes, and effects, policy, and policy changes, isn't inherently political.

Ascribing them to one party or another, or discussing our personal beliefs about the underlying political ideologies for various actions or reactions, is.

I think it's pretty easy to discuss the former without getting into the latter.

Edit:  I'm not talking about you specifically @Honestbuckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=37) or replying directly to you, just stating that I don't think it should be so difficult to discuss the events of the pandemic, and leave out the personal feelings and attacks on "the other team" 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 09, 2021, 09:48:44 PM
obviously, there is no "other team"

Fauci has been a mouth piece for the same team since the pandemic began at the end of 2019
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on August 09, 2021, 10:52:10 PM
We just postponed Disney to February.  Florida is a mess right now for the unvaccinated, and with three kids who are ineligible, we just couldn't risk it.  Hopefully they are cleared for the jab by then
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 09, 2021, 10:58:08 PM
EXPLAINER: How do border policies affect US infection rates?

https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-health-immigration-coronavirus-pandemic-174e424da1eb061d8b8bd53a7192611b (https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-health-immigration-coronavirus-pandemic-174e424da1eb061d8b8bd53a7192611b)

seems reasonable
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 09, 2021, 11:03:38 PM
How does forbidding mask mandates in local communities or schools make sense?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 09, 2021, 11:07:45 PM
You see?  I kept OAM's actual, legitimate inquiry about policy, and deleted his unnecessary personal attack against a politician he dislikes.

That's how to do this successfully.

Follow me for more tips on how to avoid provoking political discussion on the internet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 09, 2021, 11:31:25 PM
so here is my question

if there are 10 people in a working environment and all have been fully vaccinated

should they be required to wear masks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 09, 2021, 11:33:05 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 09, 2021, 11:31:25 PM
so here is my question

if there are 10 people in a working environment and all have been fully vaccinated

should they be required to wear masks
With what we know to date about the virus, the vaccines, and masks-- the answer is no. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 09, 2021, 11:39:25 PM
what if there are 8 fully vaccinated and 2 not vaccinated

should all 10 be required to wear a mask
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 09, 2021, 11:46:17 PM
2 should be fired
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 09, 2021, 11:47:35 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 09, 2021, 11:31:25 PM
so here is my question

if there are 10 people in a working environment and all have been fully vaccinated

should they be required to wear masks
Is everyone they live with vaccinated?
Will they be interacting with customers?  With those customers be vaccinated?
.
You see how it's all interconnected and maybe not just a "don't tread on me" situation?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 10, 2021, 12:09:55 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 09, 2021, 11:47:35 PM
Is everyone they live with vaccinated?
Will they be interacting with customers?  With those customers be vaccinated?
.
You see how it's all interconnected and maybe not just a "don't tread on me" situation?
They live with some who have not yet been vaccinated

They will be interacting with some customers who have not been vaccinated

so given that what is your answer
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 10, 2021, 12:52:19 AM
I'd need them to wear masks.  

But they might pout.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on August 10, 2021, 02:29:15 AM
Last week my administrative assistant took Wed. Th and Fr off. Tried to line up my former admin asst. She was not feeling well, nor was her DH, and she is pregnant. Monday my former asst. reported she tested positive for the virus, as did her DH. She was vaccine hesitant due to a challenging pregnancy. I understand that. Why he didn't protect her and her fetus, I have no idea. There is a lot of stupidity out there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 10, 2021, 06:12:40 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 09, 2021, 11:03:38 PM
How does forbidding mask mandates in local communities or schools make sense? 
It makes total sense for those who believe the government is of the people and for the people, and therefore parents get to choose.
while that may seem outlandish- it is a basic and foundational principle of the constitution.

It is easy to understand for those who watch TV and see that choice being afforded to those who make the policy.

Lastly, the Science- data shows the lack of need for children to mask up as well as the harm it does.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 10, 2021, 06:21:20 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on August 10, 2021, 02:29:15 AM
Last week my administrative assistant took Wed. Th and Fr off. Tried to line up my former admin asst. She was not feeling well, nor was her DH, and she is pregnant. Monday my former asst. reported she tested positive for the virus, as did her DH. She was vaccine hesitant due to a challenging pregnancy. I understand that. Why he didn't protect her and her fetus, I have no idea. There is a lot of stupidity out there.

I posted a similar situation a few days back. A female executive where I work is pregnant and decided to not get vaccinated. Her husband did get vaccinated.
Her physician told her that somewhere between 30 and 40% of her current pregnant patients are vaccinated and the remainder chose not to.

Their primary reasoning is the unknown long-term potential effects of the vaccination. He tested positive last week so they are isolating from each other
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 10, 2021, 06:34:58 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 09, 2021, 10:58:08 PM
EXPLAINER: How do border policies affect US infection rates?

https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-health-immigration-coronavirus-pandemic-174e424da1eb061d8b8bd53a7192611b (https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-health-immigration-coronavirus-pandemic-174e424da1eb061d8b8bd53a7192611b)

seems reasonable
I have read this and similar articles

The troubling piece is that it does not address several critical things:

- the number being let through who are NOT vaccinated ( it talks about those who do or don’t test positive)
- the number who get through undetected ( have seen estimates of 1500-2000 per day) When added to the number who are released to “relatives and supporters” or who are released to return for a court date , you now have 40,000 to 50,000 per month coming in- nearly all unvaccinated.

The article seems to address a straw man claim that the border surge is the CAUSE of the spike in Delta cases.  The article’s primary point is to disprove that. 

But nobody ( to my knowledge) has made that claim.  The complaint is- when the policy is letting thousands of unvaccinated people come in-how is their any credibility in forcing US Citizens already here, to vaccinate or to wear masks.

That seems like a very reasonable question- if not criticism of current policy.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 10, 2021, 06:37:15 AM
Breakthrough Covid cases: Why fully vaccinated people can get Covid (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/10/breakthrough-covid-cases-why-fully-vaccinated-people-can-get-covid.html)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 10, 2021, 06:38:34 AM
News from Europe is still pretty good, peaking or falling now.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 10, 2021, 08:09:17 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 09, 2021, 11:03:38 PM
How does forbidding mask mandates in local communities or schools make sense? 
Because they don't work. Because they cause anxiety. Because they limit social interaction.

But, mostly because they don't work.


(https://i.imgur.com/ebVaBCC.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 08:09:40 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 09, 2021, 11:39:25 PM
what if there are 8 fully vaccinated and 2 not vaccinated

should all 10 be required to wear a mask
in my daughter's place of work, unvaccinated employees wear a mask and have their temp taken each day

most unvaccinated of course do not like this and think unfair

everyone has choices
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 08:14:49 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 10, 2021, 06:34:58 AM
I have read this and similar articles

The troubling piece is that it does not address several critical things:

- the number being let through who are NOT vaccinated ( it talks about those who do or don’t test positive)
- the number who get through undetected ( have seen estimates of 1500-2000 per day) When added to the number who are released to “relatives and supporters” or who are released to return for a court date , you now have 40,000 to 50,000 per month coming in- nearly all unvaccinated.

The article seems to address a straw man claim that the border surge is the CAUSE of the spike in Delta cases.  The article’s primary point is to disprove that. 

But nobody ( to my knowledge) has made that claim.  The complaint is- when the policy is letting thousands of unvaccinated people come in-how is their any credibility in forcing US Citizens already here, to vaccinate or to wear masks.

That seems like a very reasonable question- if not criticism of current policy.


true and true

in my opinion the article makes a little sense, 40,000 per month is not the cause of the surge
the issue of allowing thousands of unvaccinated in and forcing tens of millions of citizens is two different issues

similar to trying to tie together homeless vets and illegal aliens and who should get beds - not really related
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 08:16:58 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 10, 2021, 06:21:20 AM
I posted a similar situation a few days back. A female executive where I work is pregnant and decided to not get vaccinated. Her husband did get vaccinated.
Her physician told her that somewhere between 30 and 40% of her current pregnant patients are vaccinated and the remainder chose not to.

Their primary reasoning is the unknown long-term potential effects of the vaccination. He tested positive last week so they are isolating from each other
did her physician also explain to her the very very slim likelihood of ANY long term potential effects?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 10, 2021, 08:18:57 AM
I'm going to Chicago this week, and I'll need to wear a mask on the plane for 6 hours (including airport time).

I will then feel like shit on both ends of the trip. For something that doesn't work. 

Just cancelled the October trip. Too much of a hassle to go up there.

The airports all have marks on the floor, asking us to social distance. And then, they allow you to board a packed airplane. And then, they ask you to social distance in baggage claim. It's all a crock, and all about control.

The most annoying/maddening thing?

Listening to the airport recording/flight attendants talk about how "Federal Law requires wearing a mask at all times."

So, it's a LAW? I guess I missed the house and senate votes on that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 10, 2021, 08:28:30 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 08:16:58 AM
did her physician also explain to her the very very slim likelihood of ANY long term potential effects?
She says yes.  Just for point of reference- this is a VERY pro vaccine- pro mask person 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 10, 2021, 08:32:28 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 10, 2021, 08:09:17 AM
Because they don't work. Because they cause anxiety. Because they limit social interaction.

But, mostly because they don't work.


(https://i.imgur.com/ebVaBCC.png)
The masks I recently purchased( you know/ the blue medical looking ones you see a ton of), say right on the box they are not intended to protect from disease or illness, and should be disposed after each use. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 10, 2021, 09:36:35 AM
SMDH. 

This is the kind of error that is causing people to cancel travel plans to Disney, @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) .

(https://i.imgur.com/xtPeJdD.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 10, 2021, 10:22:08 AM
Data collection and reporting has been an issue this entire time.

The simple truth is, our IT systems-- and more importantly our routine processes-- just aren't geared to report out daily statistics for this kind of thing.  This is the first time in global history, any outbreak has been tracked this closely.  The systems and processes are actually designed to accumulate and compile this kind of data months, or even years, after the fact.  Because we've never before felt the need to track daily cases on something like this.

It's not a problem that could be effectively and efficiently solved in a year, and perhaps not even in a decade.  But honestly, the stop-gap measures put in place over the past 18 months, have been pretty darn impressive. I'm certain they're incredibly inefficient and obviously they are highly error-prone, but the fact that we can get any data AT ALL in near-real-time, is pretty surprising to me.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 02:42:37 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 10, 2021, 08:28:30 AM
She says yes.  Just for point of reference- this is a VERY pro vaccine- pro mask person
so, why not follow his advice?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 10, 2021, 03:52:49 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 02:42:37 PM
so, why not follow his advice?
I don’t think he gave her advice. I think he gave her the data.   

apparently like the majority of his pregnant clients she used the data to come to her logical decision. And is very comfortable with it.  I’ll say this even more strongly now without being political, this is a person with very strong thinking in alignment with the current administration, Dr. Fauci, the CDC, and not in any limit with past administration.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 10, 2021, 04:24:45 PM
There's a psychological aspect here. 

Getting a vaccine is something you do. It requires agency. You have to make an appointment. You have to get in the car. You have to go somewhere and stand in line. You have to sit down while someone in a white labcoat asks a bunch of questions, reads a bunch of technical jargon, and then jabs you in the arm with a needle and injects something in your arm. Then you have to sit and wait for 15 minutes to make sure you're not going to die. Then you have to come back in 3 or 4 more weeks and do it again. 

COVID is something that happens to you. It's an unfortunate occurrence. It's invisible. You don't always know where or when you encountered it. There's no agency. It's just bad luck, not something that you did wrong. 

It's a big, big difference. 

In order to get the vaccine, you have to overcome the fear that you're doing something that might hurt you. Clearing that bar is not easy for a lot of people. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 04:50:26 PM
where in the wide world of sports did people get the idea that there might be long term consequences?

where did this misinformation come from?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 10, 2021, 04:53:30 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 04:50:26 PM
where in the wide world of sports did people get the idea that there might be long term consequences?

where did this misinformation come from?
Mostly from Europe, early on. They are doing much better over there now with the vax. Some are ahead of us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 05:02:00 PM
perhaps the same folks that believed Bill Gate's microchip was in the vaccine or that thought some idiot actually suggested injecting bleach?

the crazies!

why are these crazy ideas perpetuated?

and why isn't there a clear message with solid data to disprove these rumors?

why wouldn't a physician explain to a pregnant woman in his office that long term effects are almost impossible with this vaccine?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 10, 2021, 05:10:29 PM
Wow.  Talk about crazies. 

A doctor cannot guarantee a pregnant woman that there are no long-term effects because no doctor in the world knows that for a fact because we have not been through the long term yet.

Whatever decision a pregnant woman makes about getting the vaccine while pregnant is the correct decision for that person, especially if they are in formed with all of the facts.

It’s so sad that people think they have the right to make that decision for other people, especially when you have to ask “why have someone not presented her with the data on this“. Ding ding ding.  

When you find this long term affects data which means people that have been vaccinated for many years, let the rest of us idiots know.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 10, 2021, 05:13:37 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 10, 2021, 04:53:30 PM
Mostly from Europe, early on. They are doing much better over there now with the vax. Some are ahead of us.
What misinformation?  There is no information for a pregnant women to understand potential effects.  
pretending there is- classic misinformation. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 05:24:52 PM
check the history of vaccines - worldwide all time

check the data on the vaccines available in the USA

the current vaccines according to science should have less chance of long term effect than past vaccines
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 05:28:19 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 06, 2021, 07:51:08 PM
Three things to know about the long-term side effects of COVID vaccines

https://www.uab.edu/news/health/item/12143-three-things-to-know-about-the-long-term-side-effects-of-covid-vaccines?fbclid=IwAR2Dxzq2cDbvlmjVVXRtYkyKUO1wl7UntGmASYXwFAakaS_O5fwf-Da7IOs (https://www.uab.edu/news/health/item/12143-three-things-to-know-about-the-long-term-side-effects-of-covid-vaccines?fbclid=IwAR2Dxzq2cDbvlmjVVXRtYkyKUO1wl7UntGmASYXwFAakaS_O5fwf-Da7IOs)

In his nearly 30 years studying vaccines, Paul Goepfert, M.D., director of the Alabama Vaccine Research Clinic at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, has never seen any vaccine as effective as the three COVID vaccines — from Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson — currently available in the United States.

“A 90 percent decrease in risk of infections, and 94 percent effectiveness against hospitalization for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines is fantastic,” he said.

But what makes vaccine experts such as Goepfert confident that COVID vaccines are safe in the long term? We have all seen billboards and TV infomercials from law firms seeking people harmed by diet drugs or acid-reflux medicines for class-action lawsuits. What makes Goepfert think that scientists would not discover previously unsuspected problems caused by COVID vaccines in the years ahead?

HonestBuckeye,

you are correct that no one knows how the vaccine could affect someone years and years from now, but this article seems reasonable to me.
Perhaps it's a politically motivated piece of garbage?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 10, 2021, 05:31:35 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 05:24:52 PM
check the history of vaccines - worldwide all time

check the data on the vaccines available in the USA

the current vaccines according to science should have less chance of long term effect than past vaccines
This is the first mRNA vaccine ever used in humans. The functional method by which it works is something that has never been done before. Therefore "according to science" we're in uncharted territory. 

That said, after researching how the vaccine works, I agree with you that there is a low likelihood of long-term effects based upon the mechanism by which this vaccine works. 

I would also say that we have very limited data on the long-term effects of a natural COVID infection.

And we have no real data on the long-term effects of natural COVID infection on an in-utero fetus across their childhood and later life. 

But again, psychologically that mother has to proactively go get a shot in the arm and make that decision for her baby, if she wants to get vaccinated. And if there ARE long-term effects, that mother will carry that guilt forever. Whereas getting COVID while pregnant, on the other hand, is a "Ooops! Not really my fault! I was trying to social distance and be careful!" It's just bad luck.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 10, 2021, 05:33:03 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 10, 2021, 05:13:37 PM
What misinformation?  There is no information for a pregnant women to understand potential effects. 
pretending there is- classic misinformation.
I was talking in general. There was (and still is) a lot of pushback in the EU.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 10, 2021, 05:34:19 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 10, 2021, 05:31:35 PM
This is the first mRNA vaccine ever used in humans. The functional method by which it works is something that has never been done before. Therefore "according to science" we're in uncharted territory.

That said, after researching how the vaccine works, I agree with you that there is a low likelihood of long-term effects based upon the mechanism by which this vaccine works.

I would also say that we have very limited data on the long-term effects of a natural COVID infection.

And we have no real data on the long-term effects of natural COVID infection on an in-utero fetus across their childhood and later life.

But again, psychologically that mother has to proactively go get a shot in the arm and make that decision for her baby, if she wants to get vaccinated. And if there ARE long-term effects, that mother will carry that guilt forever. Whereas getting COVID while pregnant, on the other hand, is a "Ooops! Not really my fault! I was trying to social distance and be careful!" It's just bad luck.
I found it interesting a few months ago that a woman had Covid while pregnant and the baby was born with antibodies. Cool beans.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 10, 2021, 05:54:11 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 05:28:19 PM
HonestBuckeye,

you are correct that no one knows how the vaccine could affect someone years and years from now, but this article seems reasonable to me.
Perhaps it's a politically motivated piece of garbage?
Seems reasonable and data driven.  From what could learn- VERY low odds of negative long term effects for pregnant woman and child.  I just can’t equate the decision of a well informed lady to choose not getting the vaccine during pregnancy to the crazy shit like the microchip nuts. Especially when, as our Purdue friend points out- due to the spike protein the vaccines  are new.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 10, 2021, 05:57:43 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 10, 2021, 05:54:11 PM
due to the spike protein the vaccines  are new.
Huh?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 06:00:53 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 10, 2021, 05:33:03 PM
I was talking in general. There was (and still is) a lot of pushback in the EU.
I read a headline a day or so ago stating that the EU had caught up the the US vaccination percentages
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 06:04:20 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 10, 2021, 05:54:11 PM
Seems reasonable and data driven.  From what could learn- VERY low odds of negative long term effects for pregnant woman and child.  I just can’t equate the decision of a well informed lady to choose not getting the vaccine during pregnancy to the crazy shit like the microchip nuts. Especially when, as our Purdue friend points out- due to the spike protein the vaccines  are new.
I understand a lady being hesitant and I'm not shaming her or thinking poorly of her decision.  Sorry
I'm speaking more to the physician and "others" in the medical field that should be able to communicate the way a vaccine works and how very low the risks are long term
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 10, 2021, 06:04:40 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 06:00:53 PM
I read a headline a day or so ago stating that the EU had caught up the the US vaccination percentages
Yup.  France has caught up to us.  UK, Germany,  Spain, Italy, have all surpassed us.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 10, 2021, 06:10:33 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 04:50:26 PM
where in the wide world of sports did people get the idea that there might be long term consequences?

where did this misinformation come from?
Common sense?I mean look at all the horseshit commercials every little problem has some trumped up title. But If people can have lactose intolerance or deadly reactions to be stings or peanuts or what ever it stands to reason this vaccine could have a very undesirable conclusion amongst a few - I know of one
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 10, 2021, 06:11:06 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 10, 2021, 05:54:11 PM
Seems reasonable and data driven.  From what could learn- VERY low odds of negative long term effects for pregnant woman and child.  I just can’t equate the decision of a well informed lady to choose not getting the vaccine during pregnancy to the crazy shit like the microchip nuts. Especially when, as our Purdue friend points out- due to the spike protein the vaccines  are new.
I get that...

But I think that my discussion about the psychological aspect is an interesting one.

A pregnant lady can choose to get the vaccine or not get the vaccine. But in the world in which we live, that pregnant lady most likely CANNOT choose whether or not she's going to get COVID while pregnant. 

But that pregnant lady most likely doesn't think about the potential long-term effects of COVID infection on her unborn child because she's not choosing to get COVID. 

The proper way to make the decision would be to look at the potential negative effects of the vaccine * 100% (because you're choosing the vaccine and you know whether or not you'll get it) balanced against the potential negative effects of COVID * the likelihood of contracting COVID naturally. 

But nobody really knows the likelihood of contracting COVID naturally, as it's dependent on a whole bunch of factors, personal behavior notwithstanding. So most people in the calculation never look at the right side of the ledger because "I'm sure I won't get COVID in the next 9 months!"

I think the issue is that people underestimate the likelihood of getting COVID, because they all think they're being MUCH more careful than they actually are. Just like 90% of people think they're above-average drivers. 

When you balance the decision using only the left side of the ledger, caution is always the best policy, because you're not accounting for the danger on the right side. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 10, 2021, 06:13:44 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on August 10, 2021, 05:57:43 PM
Huh?
https://www.floridatoday.com/story/life/wellness/2021/08/10/heres-how-different-covid-19-vaccines-work/5518442001/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 10, 2021, 06:14:48 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 10, 2021, 06:11:06 PM
I get that...

But I think that my discussion about the psychological aspect is an interesting one.

A pregnant lady can choose to get the vaccine or not get the vaccine. But in the world in which we live, that pregnant lady most likely CANNOT choose whether or not she's going to get COVID while pregnant.

But that pregnant lady most likely doesn't think about the potential long-term effects of COVID infection on her unborn child because she's not choosing to get COVID.

The proper way to make the decision would be to look at the potential negative effects of the vaccine * 100% (because you're choosing the vaccine and you know whether or not you'll get it) balanced against the potential negative effects of COVID * the likelihood of contracting COVID naturally.

But nobody really knows the likelihood of contracting COVID naturally, as it's dependent on a whole bunch of factors, personal behavior notwithstanding. So most people in the calculation never look at the right side of the ledger because "I'm sure I won't get COVID in the next 9 months!"

I think the issue is that people underestimate the likelihood of getting COVID, because they all think they're being MUCH more careful than they actually are. Just like 90% of people think they're above-average drivers.

When you balance the decision using only the left side of the ledger, caution is always the best policy, because you're not accounting for the danger on the right side.

Reminds m of this scene :)


(https://i.imgur.com/KSHRdSs.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 06:15:55 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on August 10, 2021, 06:10:33 PM
Common sense?I mean look at all the horseshit commercials every little problem has some trumped up title. But If people can have lactose intolerance or deadly reactions to be stings or peanuts or what ever it stands to reason this vaccine could have a very undesirable conclusion amongst a few - I know of one
yes, but these types of effects are mostly within a couple months of getting the vaccine - not something that would crop up years from now
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 06:19:59 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 10, 2021, 06:13:44 PM
https://www.floridatoday.com/story/life/wellness/2021/08/10/heres-how-different-covid-19-vaccines-work/5518442001/
August is National Immunization Awareness Month, which highlights the importance of recommended routine vaccines in your life.

it's the 10th, why have I not heard of this?

I always hear about national cupcake day or national margarita day
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 10, 2021, 06:27:09 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 10, 2021, 06:13:44 PM
https://www.floridatoday.com/story/life/wellness/2021/08/10/heres-how-different-covid-19-vaccines-work/5518442001/
 I like your previous link could you repost?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 06:35:21 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/zX29Che.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 10, 2021, 06:35:40 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on August 10, 2021, 06:27:09 PM
I like your previous link could you repost?

The Dr Sircus stuff? 

I want the 10 minutes of my life back after reading that.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 06:36:31 PM
sorry
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 10, 2021, 06:40:59 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 06:15:55 PM
yes, but these types of effects are mostly within a couple months of getting the vaccine - not something that would crop up years from now
Know one knows what could creep up My cousin a retired RN with a masters  had worked with a some specialists in blood - Hematologist.She did not get the shot yet and not because of the Crazy theories.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 10, 2021, 06:45:58 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 10, 2021, 06:35:40 PM
The Dr Sircus stuff?

I want the 10 minutes of my life back after reading that.
I know of one person that would like their last 2 hrs of life back before getting the shot
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 10, 2021, 06:47:47 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 10, 2021, 06:35:40 PM
The Dr Sircus stuff?

I want the 10 minutes of my life back after reading that.


Lol.  Hit the wrong link.  I actually couldn’t believe that was out there. Most of that crazy shit has been censored off
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 07:04:12 PM
I know a person that would have liked to have the vaccine earlier that died of COVID on Xmas day
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 10, 2021, 07:05:41 PM
Shame they couldn't switch - really
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 07:06:26 PM
plenty of that going around, unfortunately
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 10, 2021, 07:25:16 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on August 10, 2021, 06:40:59 PM
Know one knows what could creep up My cousin a retired RN with a masters  had worked with a some specialists in blood - Hematologist.She did not get the shot yet and not because of the Crazy theories.
There are zero cases of anything creeping up after a couple of months.  So I guess a person could worry about it, on the off chance that for the first time in recorded history, there was a double-secret delayed 1.5 year side-effect worse than the virus.
.
FFS
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 10, 2021, 07:28:24 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 10, 2021, 06:14:48 PM
Reminds m of this scene :)


(https://i.imgur.com/KSHRdSs.png)
WAIT TILL I GET GOING!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 07:31:43 PM
I like this.... simple message



(https://i.imgur.com/yQliKEH.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 10, 2021, 07:38:46 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 10, 2021, 07:25:16 PM
There are zero cases of anything creeping up after a couple of months.  So I guess a person could worry about it, on the off chance that for the first time in recorded history, there was a double-secret delayed 1.5 year side-effect worse than the virus.
.
Hard to believe you know less about medicine than politics 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 10, 2021, 07:44:26 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on August 10, 2021, 07:38:46 PM
Hard to believe you know less about medicine than politics
Correct me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 10, 2021, 08:24:10 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 10, 2021, 06:34:58 AM
I have read this and similar articles

The troubling piece is that it does not address several critical things:

- the number being let through who are NOT vaccinated ( it talks about those who do or don’t test positive)
- the number who get through undetected ( have seen estimates of 1500-2000 per day) When added to the number who are released to “relatives and supporters” or who are released to return for a court date , you now have 40,000 to 50,000 per month coming in- nearly all unvaccinated.

The article seems to address a straw man claim that the border surge is the CAUSE of the spike in Delta cases.  The article’s primary point is to disprove that. 

But nobody ( to my knowledge) has made that claim.  The complaint is- when the policy is letting thousands of unvaccinated people come in-how is their any credibility in forcing US Citizens already here, to vaccinate or to wear masks.

That seems like a very reasonable question- if not criticism of current policy.
How can we be upset about immigrants not being vaccinated when we aren't upset enough about Americans not being vaccinated to ensure that they get vaccinated?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 10, 2021, 08:31:49 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/gRNWfWj.jpg)

So is the school district just being political here?  They're not harming any small businesses as far as I can tell.  So if it doesn't cost anyone a dollar, is this still radical lefty silliness?  

Or could they maybe sorta kinda be trying to keep people safe?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 10, 2021, 08:42:21 PM
School district is acting in what they believe to be the best interests of their campuses.  That is their charter.

The Florida governor is acting in what he believes is the best interest of the entire state.  Public health is only one of many concerns he has.  His bailiwick is significantly more far-reaching than is any single school district's.

It's entirely possible for there to be tension and conflict in mission, even when people are trying to do what they believe is best for the overall good.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 10, 2021, 08:46:53 PM
It will be interesting to compare stats between school dist with masks and those without
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 10, 2021, 08:48:39 PM
I'll comment that personally I don't agree with a statewide ban on local mask mandates, because I believe in allowing the majority of government occur at the local level.

The major urban school districts in Texas are also ignoring a similar ban by the Texas governor.

But I also understand there is subtlety and nuance in all of this, and I don't immediately just assume someone whose position differs from mine, is a bad actor.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 10, 2021, 09:11:51 PM
again we can at least learn from this as to what the correct action is
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 10, 2021, 09:28:01 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 10, 2021, 08:48:39 PM
I'll comment that personally I don't agree with a statewide ban on local mask mandates, because I believe in allowing the majority of government occur at the local level.

The major urban school districts in Texas are also ignoring a similar ban by the Texas governor.

But I also understand there is subtlety and nuance in all of this, and I don't immediately just assume someone whose position differs from mine, is a bad actor.


Great take on it.  Hard to disagree.  The only thing you could do is take it one step further- at some juncture - is it the governments job to have that level of control? I don’t know the right answer.
certainly- I think a business has the right to require masks or vaccines- just as it’s clients and employees have the right to decide to work there or conduct business there.
it is tough for a school district because there isn’t much choice if there is a mandate, or if their isn’t and as a parent-if you want them. 

unfortunately- that’s where the polarization crystallizes- such disparate wide views on that.
what is the government’s appropriate role?
also- how much credibility is there if the policy is” do as I say but not as I do” or “ rules for thee and not for me”?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 09:42:19 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 10, 2021, 09:11:51 PM
again we can at least learn from this as to what the correct action is
obviously not
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 10, 2021, 10:05:20 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 09:42:19 PM
obviously not
meaning?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 10:17:35 PM
meaning we've been into this for over a year and we don't know if kids should wear masks at school

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 10:18:10 PM
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear is ordering that students and employees in the state’s schools wear masks indoors, as the fast-spreading delta variant of the coronavirus brings more infections and hospitalizations.

Beshear’s executive order issued Tuesday applies to everyone in Kentucky schools for kindergarten through 12th grade, regardless of vaccination status. He says the requirement also applies to child care and pre-kindergarten programs.

The governor says that “we are to the point where we cannot allow our kids to go into these buildings unprotected, unvaccinated and face this delta variant.”

Beshear said he wants to avoid schools shutting down in-person teaching and shifted to remote learning as occurred earlier in the pandemic.

_________________________________________________ ________________________________________

does the governor believe that masks will protect kids in those buildings??????  WTF?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 10:18:31 PM
“Ohio State University updated its mask protocols last week to enhance the health and safety of the campus community and to reflect updated guidance from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Students, faculty, staff, and visitors to all Ohio State campuses and medical facilities are required to wear masks indoors, regardless of vaccination status. Masks are required outdoors for unvaccinated individuals when they cannot maintain physical distancing. Vaccinated people are not required to mask outdoors.”

As for football games, masks will be required in all interior public spaces, which include elevators, restrooms, and the press box. Masks will not be required for outdoor spaces, which include the gates to get into the Horseshoe, concession stands, and the seating bowl.

For people looking to take public transportation to a game, masks will continue to be required for all public transportation, including the game-day shuttles.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 10, 2021, 10:45:08 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 10:17:35 PM
meaning we've been into this for over a year and we don't know if kids should wear masks at school


Oh I think we know

but it will be undeniable when the stats come in this time around

the benefit of masks is way over-blown
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 10, 2021, 11:08:29 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 10, 2021, 10:45:08 PM
Oh I think we know

but it will be undeniable when the stats come in this time around

the benefit of masks is way over-blown
a)  nothing is undeniable anymore....there will always be a side that automatically disagrees based solely on who is talking
b)  if the benefit of masks is one fucking life, then yeah, stop bitching about it and mask up
.
It's not that hard.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 10, 2021, 11:15:42 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 10:18:31 PM
“Ohio State University updated its mask protocols last week to enhance the health and safety of the campus community and to reflect updated guidance from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Students, faculty, staff, and visitors to all Ohio State campuses and medical facilities are required to wear masks indoors, regardless of vaccination status. Masks are required outdoors for unvaccinated individuals when they cannot maintain physical distancing. Vaccinated people are not required to mask outdoors.”

As for football games, masks will be required in all interior public spaces, which include elevators, restrooms, and the press box. Masks will not be required for outdoor spaces, which include the gates to get into the Horseshoe, concession stands, and the seating bowl.

For people looking to take public transportation to a game, masks will continue to be required for all public transportation, including the game-day shuttles.

Kind of humorous if you think about it. Those seats in the shoe are shoulder to shoulder and I mean literally. No masks required. But if you go into the restroom we’re nobody gets within 3 feet of each other sans pandemic, we have to wear mask. 😂😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 10, 2021, 11:17:00 PM
I have the feeling that in my district, if a few over-age, overweight, immune-system-compromised teachers die, that will be written off as the price of freedom by those who support state laws forbidding schools to require vaccines or masks, or to ask about vaccination status, and in effect make it impossible even to do contact-tracing.

"Gotta break a few eggs when you make an omelet," said the fans of the major bad actors in the world ca. 1935.

The question in response should have been, "OK--so where's the omelet?"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 10, 2021, 11:24:51 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 10, 2021, 11:17:00 PM
I have the feeling that in my district, if a few over-age, overweight, immune-system-compromised teachers die, that will be written off as the price of freedom by those who support state laws forbidding schools to require vaccines or masks, or to ask about vaccination status, and in effect make it impossible even to do contact-tracing.

"Gotta break a few eggs when you make an omelet," said the fans of the major bad actors in the world ca. 1935.

The question in response should have been, "OK--so where's the omelet?"
I think the question is why didnt the teacher get vaccinated

I cant even imagine what goes into a teacher's thinking who decides not to be vaccinated
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 10, 2021, 11:25:14 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 10:18:10 PM
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear is ordering that students and employees in the state’s schools wear masks indoors, as the fast-spreading delta variant of the coronavirus brings more infections and hospitalizations.

Beshear’s executive order issued Tuesday applies to everyone in Kentucky schools for kindergarten through 12th grade, regardless of vaccination status. He says the requirement also applies to child care and pre-kindergarten programs.

The governor says that “we are to the point where we cannot allow our kids to go into these buildings unprotected, unvaccinated and face this delta variant.”

Beshear said he wants to avoid schools shutting down in-person teaching and shifted to remote learning as occurred earlier in the pandemic.

_________________________________________________ ________________________________________

does the governor believe that masks will protect kids in those buildings??????  WTF? 

Apparently the governor does believe that, regardless of whether anyone agrees with him or not
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 10, 2021, 11:26:38 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 10, 2021, 11:24:51 PM
I think the question is why didnt the teacher get vaccinated

I cant even imagine what goes into a teacher's thinking who decides not to be vaccinated
Or- Is the belief that everybody wearing a mask would have prevented those teachers from dying. That is where the debate is but some come into the debate with a pre-assumed correct answer which is their personal belief. I won’t enter that debate because the data can be leveraged to support either position for some beautiful confirmation bias.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 11, 2021, 01:46:53 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 10, 2021, 11:24:51 PM
I think the question is why didnt the teacher get vaccinated

I cant even imagine what goes into a teacher's thinking who decides not to be vaccinated
Replace 'teacher' with 'person'.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 11, 2021, 06:31:39 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 10, 2021, 08:31:49 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/gRNWfWj.jpg)

So is the school district just being political here?  They're not harming any small businesses as far as I can tell.  So if it doesn't cost anyone a dollar, is this still radical lefty silliness? 

Or could they maybe sorta kinda be trying to keep people safe?
If they had brains, they would know that masks don't work, kids are not spreaders, and masks are harmful to kids.

How many times must these facts be pointed out to you? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 11, 2021, 06:33:35 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 10:17:35 PM
meaning we've been into this for over a year and we don't know if kids should wear masks at school
Yes, we do know, and they shouldn't, for reasons I've posted in the past.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 11, 2021, 06:35:58 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 10, 2021, 09:28:01 PM
Great take on it.  Hard to disagree.  The only thing you could do is take it one step further- at some juncture - is it the governments job to have that level of control? I don’t know the right answer.
certainly- I think a business has the right to require masks or vaccines- just as it’s clients and employees have the right to decide to work there or conduct business there.
it is tough for a school district because there isn’t much choice if there is a mandate, or if their isn’t and as a parent-if you want them. 
There should be no mandates at all. If a parent wants their child to wear one, then do it. If not, then don't.

Which is what Florida is saying. The issue is school districts making mandates. They should not, and Florida is trying to stop that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 11, 2021, 06:38:16 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 10, 2021, 08:09:17 AM
Because they don't work. Because they cause anxiety. Because they limit social interaction.

But, mostly because they don't work.


(https://i.imgur.com/ebVaBCC.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 11, 2021, 06:47:27 AM
U.S. Mask Companies Struggle to Compete with China - Washington latest (https://washingtonlatest.com/u-s-mask-companies-struggle-to-compete-with-china/)


In Congress, a bill (https://www.bennet.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2021/5/bennet-tillis-introduce-bipartisan-legislation-to-improve-medical-supply-manufacturing-and-rebuild-the-strategic-national-stockpile) with bipartisan support would allocate $500 million in annual spending over the next three years to support domestic manufacturers of vital medical equipment.

While industry executives commend these moves, they say that time is running out. The American Mask Manufacturer’s Association (https://www.ammaunited.org/), a recently created trade group, said its 27 members had already laid off 50 percent of their work force. Without concerted action from Washington, most of those companies will go belly up within the next two months.

An immediate boost, they say, would be to rescind the C.D.C. guidelines (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/ppe-strategy/decontamination-reuse-respirators.html#:~:text=CDC recommends limiting the number,manager or appropriate safety personnel.), born during the pandemic, that force health workers to repeatedly reuse N95 masks, even though they are designed to be thrown away after contact with each patient. Many hospitals are still following the guidelines, even though 260 million masks are gathering dust in warehouses across the country.



...



Reflect on this.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 11, 2021, 07:04:03 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 11, 2021, 06:47:27 AM
U.S. Mask Companies Struggle to Compete with China - Washington latest (https://washingtonlatest.com/u-s-mask-companies-struggle-to-compete-with-china/)


In Congress, a bill (https://www.bennet.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2021/5/bennet-tillis-introduce-bipartisan-legislation-to-improve-medical-supply-manufacturing-and-rebuild-the-strategic-national-stockpile) with bipartisan support would allocate $500 million in annual spending over the next three years to support domestic manufacturers of vital medical equipment.

While industry executives commend these moves, they say that time is running out. The American Mask Manufacturer’s Association (https://www.ammaunited.org/), a recently created trade group, said its 27 members had already laid off 50 percent of their work force. Without concerted action from Washington, most of those companies will go belly up within the next two months.

An immediate boost, they say, would be to rescind the C.D.C. guidelines (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/ppe-strategy/decontamination-reuse-respirators.html#:~:text=CDC recommends limiting the number,manager or appropriate safety personnel.), born during the pandemic, that force health workers to repeatedly reuse N95 masks, even though they are designed to be thrown away after contact with each patient. Many hospitals are still following the guidelines, even though 260 million masks are gathering dust in warehouses across the country.



...



Reflect on this.


Says a lot without saying it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 11, 2021, 08:06:33 AM
UK and Spain trending down, France may be starting down.  I hope.  Some of this could reflect people taking more care about them, going out less often, distancing, maybe even mask wearing.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 11, 2021, 09:06:16 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 10, 2021, 11:24:51 PM
I think the question is why didnt the teacher get vaccinated

I cant even imagine what goes into a teacher's thinking who decides not to be vaccinated
well, people that get vaccinated are getting sick and probably dying
school aged kids are getting sick more from the delta variant
the unanswered question is how many cracked eggs is a few?  how good was the omelet? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 11, 2021, 09:36:25 AM
GENEVA — The World Health Organization says it will soon test three drugs used for other diseases to see if they might help patients sickened by the coronavirus.

In a statement on Wednesday, the U.N. health agency says the three drugs would be adopted into the next phase of its ongoing global research into identifying potential treatments for COVID-19. The drugs were chosen by an independent panel based on the likelihood they could prevent deaths in people hospitalized for coronavirus.

They include artesunate, a malaria drug, the cancer drug imatinib, and infliximab, currently used in people with diseases of the immune system.

WHO’s ongoing study into COVID-19 treatments previously assessed four drugs. Among its findings, the agency determined that remdesivir and hydroxychloroquine didn’t help people hospitalized with the virus. WHO’s research includes thousands of researchers in hundreds of hospitals in 52 countries.

“Finding more effective and accessible therapeutics for COVID-19 patients remains a critical need,” says WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 11, 2021, 10:05:18 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 11, 2021, 01:46:53 AM
Replace 'teacher' with 'person'.
we are talking about masking up in grade schools so I'll just keep the word teacher

the kids dont get vaccinated cause its not allowed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 11, 2021, 10:13:54 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 11, 2021, 09:06:16 AM
well, people that get vaccinated are getting sick and probably dying
school aged kids are getting sick more from the delta variant
the unanswered question is how many cracked eggs is a few?  how good was the omelet?
very few who get vaccinated are getting the virus and way fewer still actually die

the occurrence of school children getting sick is also very low

children as a whole dont get nor spread this virus but teachers can

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 11, 2021, 10:22:44 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 11, 2021, 10:13:54 AM
very few who get vaccinated are getting the virus and way fewer still actually die

the occurrence of school children getting sick is also very low

children as a whole dont get nor spread this virus but teachers can



Well sort of.  They can get and spread the virus amongst themselves, but the vast majority are not actually getting sick from it.  And there is very little evidence of child-to-teacher transmission.  The viral loads just don't support the transmission to adults for the most part.

My 13yo daughter had it sometime in the Spring and never knew she had it.  We didn't know until we had her tested for antibodies, prior to getting the vaccine.  She worked very closely with her friend group during that time, none of whom ever exhibited symptoms either.  I don't know whether or not any of them ever developed antibodies, but none of their teachers got sick during that time period, so there was no child-to-adult spread.

Older high school kids are a little different.  Consequently, they should be vaccinated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 11, 2021, 10:28:31 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 11, 2021, 06:35:58 AM
There should be no mandates at all. If a parent wants their child to wear one, then do it. If not, then don't.

Which is what Florida is saying. The issue is school districts making mandates. They should not, and Florida is trying to stop that.
I disagree.  State bans represent government overreach.  I'm never on board for that.

Local governments and school boards should be making these decisions.  It's what they are elected to do-- represent their direct constituency.  If their constituencies disagree with local policy, they can take action against it in the form of protests, lawsuits, civil disobedience, removal of those representatives from office, or moving to a location that better suits their ideology.  The one thing constituents absolutely SHOULD do, is hold their elected representatives accountable.




Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 11, 2021, 10:41:38 AM
A governor has a constituency too. 

A state ban on mandates is virtually passing the power TO THE constituency.  They get to decide. 

Maybe overreaching.  But a statewide mandate requiring vaccines or masks would then, by definition, be overreaching. 

At the local level, once a decision is made- it literally goes into affect immediately and the power to protest or replace those representatives comes much later, and has no bearing on the immediate decision and therefore is fruitless in the immediate term.  Additionally, it has become very evident that local representatives in school districts, on school boards, and local governments, do not often care what the majority of their constituents think.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 11, 2021, 10:47:59 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 11, 2021, 10:41:38 AM
A governor has a constituency too.

A state ban on mandates is virtually passing the power TO THE constituency.  They get to decide.

Maybe overreaching.  But a statewide mandate requiring vaccines or masks would then, by definition, be overreaching.

At the local level, once a decision is made- it literally goes into affect immediately and the power to protest or replace those representatives comes much later, and has no bearing on the immediate decision and therefore is fruitless in the immediate term.  Additionally, it has become very evident that local representatives in school districts, on school boards, and local governments, do not often care what the majority of their constituents think.

Bulljive.  There's no local decision left, if a state governor overreaches and announces a statewide ban.  It's the complete opposite.

And of course I agree that a statewide mandate requiring masks or vaccines is also an overreach, just as a Federal one would be an overreach. 

Local authorities must make these decisions for their communities.  The governor in Austin is poorly equipped to make unilateral decisions for people in El Paso.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 11, 2021, 10:52:41 AM
Quote from: utee94 on August 11, 2021, 10:47:59 AM
Bulljive.  There's no local decision left, if a state governor overreaches and announces a statewide ban.  It's the complete opposite.

And of course I agree that a statewide mandate requiring masks or vaccines is also an overreach, just as a Federal one would be an overreach. 

Local authorities must make these decisions for their communities.  The governor in Austin is poorly equipped to make unilateral decisions for people in El Paso.

Respectfully- we will just disagree.  

The Governor in Austin just admitted to being poorly equipped to make unilateral decision for people in El Paso.  So, he handed that over to them, and not to local government. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 11, 2021, 10:55:30 AM
Regardless, the fact remains that the Texas state governor has announced a ban on mask mandates, and the local school districts in all of the major urban areas are directly disobeying.  They are daring the state government to take them to court. It will be very difficult for the state to engage in legal battles against all of the major cities, so I suspect it won't go anywhere.

As lh320 pointed out, from a scientific experimental standpoint, we're about to gather some interesting and relevant data, since we'll have very large test groups as well as very large control groups.  By December, we're definitely going to know how much, or how little, masks help with reduction in infection of spread, among school children.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 11, 2021, 11:02:46 AM
My guess is the data would  be very noisy.

And inconclusive.

Especially with kids.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 11, 2021, 11:07:12 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 11, 2021, 11:02:46 AM
My guess is the data would  be very noisy.

And inconclusive.

Especially with kids.



I'm not so sure.

If masking is incredibly effective then the outcomes should be very different.  In which case I don't suspect noise will interfere with conclusions.

If the outcomes aren't dramatically different, then that will also tell us quite a bit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 11, 2021, 11:16:56 AM
I have not seen anything to suggest masks are incredibly effective, they aren't, they may be modestly effective in crowds.  The difference may be 10%-20% at best, from what I can glean, but with exponents, 10% is important.  Other factors like location location and the other thing probably swamp the mask signal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 11, 2021, 11:18:57 AM
Quote from: utee94 on August 11, 2021, 10:47:59 AM
Bulljive.  There's no local decision left, if a state governor overreaches and announces a statewide ban.  It's the complete opposite.

And of course I agree that a statewide mandate requiring masks or vaccines is also an overreach, just as a Federal one would be an overreach. 

Local authorities must make these decisions for their communities.  The governor in Austin is poorly equipped to make unilateral decisions for people in El Paso.

Yes there is a local decision left.

The PARENTS get to choose. They elect the school board, who chooses school leadership. It is up to the parents - as it should be.

(Local businesses also get to choose, but that's a different topic.)

Bottom line, Florida has not banned masks. It has only banned local mandates.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 11, 2021, 11:23:14 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 11, 2021, 11:16:56 AM
I have not seen anything to suggest masks are incredibly effective, they aren't, they may be modestly effective in crowds.  The difference may be 10%-20% at best, from what I can glean, but with exponents, 10% is important.  Other factors like location location and the other thing probably swamp the mask signal.

I suspect this will be the case.  Which is precisely why I believe it to be an interesting scientific experiment.


And then we can stop having the mask debates. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 11, 2021, 12:52:55 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 10, 2021, 07:44:26 PM
correct me
better men than I have tried
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 11, 2021, 01:10:10 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 11, 2021, 11:23:14 AM
I suspect this will be the case.  Which is precisely why I believe it to be an interesting scientific experiment.


And then we can stop having the mask debates. 
didn't we have this scientific experience last year with schools?

what makes you think folks will actually collect this data this year with any accuracy and consistency?
and then put it together properly to draw a conclusion
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 11, 2021, 01:17:23 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 11, 2021, 01:10:10 PM
didn't we have this scientific experience last year with schools?

what makes you think folks will actually collect this data this year with any accuracy and consistency?
and then put it together properly to draw a conclusion
Last year most schools were from home

we collected this data in the past

as far as accuracy is concerned there will be many eyes looking at it so one just has to hope

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 11, 2021, 01:19:17 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 10, 2021, 11:08:29 PM
b)  if the benefit of masks is one fucking life, then yeah, stop bitching about it and mask up
This type of reasoning is a fallacy. 

Literally the world is full of things that we could do differently that would save 'one effing life' and we don't do those things. 

In fact, there are a lot of things that we could do differently that would save far more lives. 


The biggest killers in the US are heart disease, cancer, accidents, and chronic respiratory diseases.

Banning tobacco would take a big step out of heart disease, cancer, and respiratory diseases, and lower death rates by those causes. Banning fast food or otherwise forcing Americans into a healthier diet would help considerably with heart disease and diabetes and obesity, and lower death rates by those causes. Motor vehicle fatalities are around 35K annually--I'll bet you could drop that 50% by mandating a 25 mph speed limit coast to coast. 


We don't do these things because there's a balancing test between freedom, cost, efficiency, and safety. 

We wore masks to protect the vulnerable. Now the vulnerable have access to vaccines which are FAR more effective than masks to protect them. So why do we still need the masks?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 11, 2021, 01:24:48 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 11, 2021, 01:10:10 PM
didn't we have this scientific experience last year with schools?

what makes you think folks will actually collect this data this year with any accuracy and consistency?
and then put it together properly to draw a conclusion
No, not at all.

Last year, in Texas at least, any and all schools that were in-person, were 100% masked.  My kids went to school from September 2020-May 2021, and wore masks every single day.  That is true of all other children in Texas who went in-person.

This year, there will be large school districts that maintain mask mandates, but there will also be large school districts that do not.  And it's going to be easy to determine if we see a pop in cases/hospitalizations/ICU/death based on those well-defined geographical boundaries, within the school-aged cohorts under investigation.

We're getting an almost perfect scientific control group and test groups out of this occurrence.

I'll certainly be paying attention to the data.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 11, 2021, 01:32:51 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 11, 2021, 01:24:48 PM
No, not at all.

Last year, in Texas at least, any and all schools that were in-person, were 100% masked.  My kids went to school from September 2020-May 2021, and wore masks every single day.  That is true of all other children in Texas who went in-person.

This year, there will be large school districts that maintain mask mandates, but there will also be large school districts that do not.  And it's going to be easy to determine if we see a pop in cases/hospitalizations/ICU/death based on those well-defined geographical boundaries.

We're getting an almost perfect scientific control group and test groups out of this occurrence.

I'll certainly be paying attention to the data.
California has a statewide mask mandate in schools. 

By comparison to some states like TX/FL that are banning mandates statewide, it definitely should give us comparison data.

That data (and the conclusions it should generate) will be agreed upon by almost nobody and almost everyone will have the same opinions on masks at the conclusion of the 2021-22 school year as they did before the year started. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 11, 2021, 01:37:19 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 11, 2021, 01:32:51 PM
California has a statewide mask mandate in schools.

By comparison to some states like TX/FL that are banning mandates statewide, it definitely should give us comparison data.

That data (and the conclusions it should generate) will be agreed upon by almost nobody and almost everyone will have the same opinions on masks at the conclusion of the 2021-22 school year as they did before the year started.

Totally agree with this statement, but it's really just for my own journey of scientific discovery. I'm very interested in this because I'm ambivalent about the outcomes here.

And comparing state to state is good, but the fact that large side-by-side school districts within the state of Texas, are going to go 100% opposite one another on this, is going to provide an even finer resulting data set.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 11, 2021, 01:41:42 PM
With a credible base size in the millions, we might see a small difference.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 11, 2021, 01:47:50 PM
Schools were open here last year - all year - no masks. Zoom was optional, if the parent so chose. Not sure that's an option this year. Haven't looked into it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 11, 2021, 01:52:38 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 11, 2021, 01:32:51 PM
That data (and the conclusions it should generate) will be agreed upon by almost nobody and almost everyone will have the same opinions on masks at the conclusion of the 2021-22 school year as they did before the year started.
my opinion exactly

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on August 11, 2021, 01:53:02 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 11, 2021, 01:24:48 PM
No, not at all.

Last year, in Texas at least, any and all schools that were in-person, were 100% masked.  My kids went to school from September 2020-May 2021, and wore masks every single day.  That is true of all other children in Texas who went in-person.

This year, there will be large school districts that maintain mask mandates, but there will also be large school districts that do not.  And it's going to be easy to determine if we see a pop in cases/hospitalizations/ICU/death based on those well-defined geographical boundaries, within the school-aged cohorts under investigation.

We're getting an almost perfect scientific control group and test groups out of this occurrence.

I'll certainly be paying attention to the data.

Wrong.  Our district ditched the masks during the latter part of the spring semester.  Seems like it was March or April but the last few months they did not wear masks.  The sky did not fall, no more or no less kids got corona, and the kids that I know that got corona didn't really get sick either.  

Most importantly no kids or teachers died and I don't even think any teachers had to be hospitalized.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 11, 2021, 01:58:08 PM
Quote from: Gigem on August 11, 2021, 01:53:02 PM
Wrong.  Our district ditched the masks during the latter part of the spring semester.  Seems like it was March or April but the last few months they did not wear masks.  The sky did not fall, no more or no less kids got corona, and the kids that I know that got corona didn't really get sick either. 

Most importantly no kids or teachers died and I don't even think any teachers had to be hospitalized. 
course all the mask supporters will argue that your past experience was not with the new variant delta

but I dont think it will make a difference and some experts say that even though this new strain is faster spreading that its not as strong

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on August 11, 2021, 01:58:38 PM
The most likely outcome on the mask mandate in public school is somebody will purposely have their kid  not wear a mask in school, the district will attempt to force them or remove them, the parent will put up a legal fight and it will go to court where the court will rule in favor of the parent most likely since there is a state wide ban.  So once it's established that the district cannot legally do this I think a lot of parents/kids will ignore the district mandate, if you can call it that.  

I know a lot of teachers here in our rural district, most are against the masks and in fact a lot of teachers and people I know have already had corona and are not afraid.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on August 11, 2021, 02:00:11 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 11, 2021, 01:58:08 PM
course all the mask supporters will argue that your past experience was not with the new variant delta

but I dont think it will make a difference and some experts say that even though this new strain is faster spreading that its not as strong
I would like to know how they even know it was delta?  I don't think your run of the mill test will tell you that, the only way to know is to do a sequence on it and I wonder how many of those are being done?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 11, 2021, 02:03:31 PM
If a mask is say 10% effective against one variant, it should be the same with Delta as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 11, 2021, 02:04:28 PM
There will be additional noise if kids under 12 start getting vaccinated in disparate numbers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 11, 2021, 02:04:30 PM
Quote from: Gigem on August 11, 2021, 01:53:02 PM
Wrong.  Our district ditched the masks during the latter part of the spring semester.  Seems like it was March or April but the last few months they did not wear masks.  The sky did not fall, no more or no less kids got corona, and the kids that I know that got corona didn't really get sick either. 

Most importantly no kids or teachers died and I don't even think any teachers had to be hospitalized. 
Fair enough.

I'll point out that your experiences in rural Texas aren't particularly analogous to what happened in the urban population centers, and vice versa.  And that the confounding variables between the two make comparisons almost meaningless.

This time, the differences in experience from Austin proper, to Austin suburbs, are much smaller, the overall sample will be more homogenous, and will provide a better data set than we've ever had before.

Which is my real point.

Edit:  I'll add that I'm not attempting to invalidate your experience in your home.  I'm speaking strictly from the viewpoint of the scientific experiment I expect to see over the next few months. I read back through and my response sounded harsh which I did not intend. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 11, 2021, 02:05:56 PM
Quote from: Gigem on August 11, 2021, 02:00:11 PM
I would like to know how they even know it was delta?  I don't think your run of the mill test will tell you that, the only way to know is to do a sequence on it and I wonder how many of those are being done? 
Cases that end up in the hospitals are all tested.  At this point Delta is by far the dominant strain in Central Texas.  I haven't looked at any other geos so won't speak for your area.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 11, 2021, 02:07:12 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 11, 2021, 02:03:31 PM
If a mask is say 10% effective against one variant, it should be the same with Delta as well.
we were talking about a school that went maskless
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 11, 2021, 02:07:55 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 11, 2021, 02:04:28 PM
There will be additional noise if kids under 12 start getting vaccinated in disparate numbers.
This is going to be one of the problems in comparing rural areas to urban areas, anyway.  The rural areas have much lower vaccination rates than their urban counterparts.

But in most cases the large suburbs of cities, have similar vaccination rates to the urban cores, and so comparisons will be more meaningful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 11, 2021, 02:09:07 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 11, 2021, 02:07:12 PM
we were talking about a school that went maskless
There were no schools in any major population center in Texas that went completely maskless the entire year.  A few lifted them late, like May, when background cases were extremely low anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 11, 2021, 02:15:52 PM
I'm pretty sure in  mask optional schools, some portion will wear masks, to some degree.  Some others may tell their parents they wear masks but don't.  And some will wear them poorly down around their neck much of the time.  There won't be a school that disallows masks.

And in mask required schools, you'll still have Johnny not wearing it properly.  Karen will tell on him and the teacher will get frustrated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 11, 2021, 02:22:53 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 11, 2021, 02:15:52 PM
I'm pretty sure in  mask optional schools, some portion will wear masks, to some degree.  Some others may tell their parents they wear masks but don't.  And some will wear them poorly down around their neck much of the time.  There won't be a school that disallows masks.


I don't think many will wear masks, certainly not enough to change the statistical impact.  I'm in a mask-optional school district adjacent to Austin school district.  I went to a 6th grade open-house last night.  Less than 10% of all parents/students were wearing masks.  When it's students alone in the classroom, I'd say that number falls to just about 0%.  The teachers weren't wearing masks, either.  I've told my kids that I would prefer they wear masks, but if nobody else is, and they don't feel comfortable, then they don't have to. 

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 11, 2021, 02:15:52 PM

And in mask required schools, you'll still have Johnny not wearing it properly.  Karen will tell on him and the teacher will get frustrated.

And this is no different than last year, so as far as a control goes, it's identical to the previous experiment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on August 11, 2021, 03:04:47 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 04:50:26 PM
where in the wide world of sports did people get the idea that there might be long term consequences?

where did this misinformation come from?
Perhaps from people who know about Thalidomide being prescription as a tranquilizer and to combat nausea or maybe the people who know about phen-fen, the list could go on to the number of things that have been released as safe and found out later to have consequences.

I have a daughter who is currently pregnant. There is no way in the world I would recommend for her to get the vaccine at this time.

BTW I am not an anti-vaxxer I have been vaccinated, but I would never tell anyone that they have to get the vaccine for any reason.  Also I understand that what I cited above are not vaccines, but the vaccines that are being used for COVID are not your typical vaccines in how they cause the antibodies to develop. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on August 11, 2021, 03:07:41 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 10, 2021, 06:11:06 PM
I get that...

But I think that my discussion about the psychological aspect is an interesting one.

A pregnant lady can choose to get the vaccine or not get the vaccine. But in the world in which we live, that pregnant lady most likely CANNOT choose whether or not she's going to get COVID while pregnant.

But that pregnant lady most likely doesn't think about the potential long-term effects of COVID infection on her unborn child because she's not choosing to get COVID.

The proper way to make the decision would be to look at the potential negative effects of the vaccine * 100% (because you're choosing the vaccine and you know whether or not you'll get it) balanced against the potential negative effects of COVID * the likelihood of contracting COVID naturally.

But nobody really knows the likelihood of contracting COVID naturally, as it's dependent on a whole bunch of factors, personal behavior notwithstanding. So most people in the calculation never look at the right side of the ledger because "I'm sure I won't get COVID in the next 9 months!"

I think the issue is that people underestimate the likelihood of getting COVID, because they all think they're being MUCH more careful than they actually are. Just like 90% of people think they're above-average drivers.

When you balance the decision using only the left side of the ledger, caution is always the best policy, because you're not accounting for the danger on the right side.

Except that for the most part the danger (particularly the mortal danger) on the other part has been IMHO greatly exaggerated by others when you look at the statistics, whereas we don't know the danger on the other part. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 11, 2021, 03:28:52 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on August 11, 2021, 03:07:41 PM
Except that for the most part the danger (particularly the mortal danger) on the other part has been IMHO greatly exaggerated by others when you look at the statistics, whereas we don't know the danger on the other part.
Well, I think we were talking about long term effects, not short term mortality risk. 

I think we already have evidence that mortality due to either COVID or the vaccine are not typical for otherwise healthy pregnant women, nor have I heard of any short-term effects of either that negatively harm the baby. 

My point was that we have NO idea what the long term effects are of COVID on a child who was exposed to it in the womb. Just as we have NO idea what the long term effects are of the vaccine on a child whose mother gets it during pregnancy. 

BTW I'm not saying that the pregnant lady in my example didn't choose correctly in choosing not to get the vaccine. I didn't have to advise anyone on making that choice, and I have not looked at any research whatsoever. It's entirely possible that avoiding the vaccine if you're pregnant is the rational decision. 

What I'm saying is that for most people--pregnant or not--looking at the choice of getting or not getting the vaccine, they're evaluating the vaccine's potential long term effects but they're ignoring the fact that we have no idea what the long term effects are of COVID. Yet they're willing to "take a chance" on getting COVID and potentially dealing with the long-term effects because "getting COVID" doesn't require agency, while affirmatively getting the vaccine does. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 11, 2021, 03:29:37 PM
It's my contention that most people who are refusing the vaccine for non-ideological and non-political reasons are creating justifications to rationalize that fear.



The issue when talking to people is that very often if you address the stated reason, it still doesn't address the underlying fear of agency of getting the shot. They'd rather rely on hope that they won't get COVID or that it won't affect them than take responsibility for CHOOSING to get the shot in the low likelihood that the shot is somehow bad.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on August 11, 2021, 03:49:32 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 11, 2021, 01:19:17 PM
This type of reasoning is a fallacy.

Literally the world is full of things that we could do differently that would save 'one effing life' and we don't do those things.

In fact, there are a lot of things that we could do differently that would save far more lives.

  • We could make tobacco products illegal.
  • We could ban sales of alcohol.
  • We could institute 25 mph speed limits on all public roads.
  • We could ban drive-through restaurants (or some other ban targeted at fast food products).

The biggest killers in the US are heart disease, cancer, accidents, and chronic respiratory diseases.

Banning tobacco would take a big step out of heart disease, cancer, and respiratory diseases, and lower death rates by those causes. Banning fast food or otherwise forcing Americans into a healthier diet would help considerably with heart disease and diabetes and obesity, and lower death rates by those causes. Motor vehicle fatalities are around 35K annually--I'll bet you could drop that 50% by mandating a 25 mph speed limit coast to coast.


We don't do these things because there's a balancing test between freedom, cost, efficiency, and safety.

We wore masks to protect the vulnerable. Now the vulnerable have access to vaccines which are FAR more effective than masks to protect them. So why do we still need the masks?
Amen. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 11, 2021, 03:58:08 PM
The Delta Variant Isn’t As Contagious As Chickenpox. But It’s Still Highly Contagious (wbhm.org) (https://wbhm.org/npr_story_post/2021/the-cdc-said-the-delta-variant-is-as-contagious-as-chickenpox-thats-not-accurate/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 11, 2021, 04:35:07 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 11, 2021, 06:35:58 AM
There should be no mandates at all. If a parent wants their child to wear one, then do it. If not, then don't.

Which is what Florida is saying. The issue is school districts making mandates. They should not, and Florida is trying to stop that.
This might be the most backwards-assed thing I've ever read.  
You're lost.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 11, 2021, 04:50:17 PM
Lost?

Maybe you should familiarize yourself with this document. 

(https://i.imgur.com/MKisIcK.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 11, 2021, 05:15:24 PM
You know, I've dabbled a little in Internet Constitutional Law, and I'm pretty sure that an individual school board issuing a mask mandate during a pandemic would probably be upheld by SCOTUS...
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 11, 2021, 05:20:03 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 11, 2021, 02:15:52 PM
I'm pretty sure in  mask optional schools, some portion will wear masks, to some degree.  Some others may tell their parents they wear masks but don't.  And some will wear them poorly down around their neck much of the time.  There won't be a school that disallows masks.

And in mask required schools, you'll still have Johnny not wearing it properly.  Karen will tell on him and the teacher will get frustrated.
My school (HS) will be mask-optional.
I'm not sure that does much good.  The kids who wear masks will overwhelmingly be among the vaccinated and the kids who don't wear masks will overwhelmingly be among the unvaccinated.
The logic for masks is to protect others from the wearer.  But those from whom we need protection--the unvaccinated--will also be the ones who refuse to consider the welfare of others and so won't wear masks.
The ones who need to wear masks aren't wearing them, and the ones who probably don't need to wear masks will be wearing them.
Did I say that same thing enough times, enough different ways?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 11, 2021, 05:22:35 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 11, 2021, 05:15:24 PM
You know, I've dabbled a little in Internet Constitutional Law, and I'm pretty sure that an individual school board issuing a mask mandate during a pandemic would probably be upheld by SCOTUS...
Not in defiance of a state law forbidding local mandates, I suspect.  I'd like to see it argued, though.
Now, maybe the state law could be found unconstitutional on some grounds that I haven't considered.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 11, 2021, 05:27:37 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 11, 2021, 05:22:35 PM
Not in defiance of a state law forbidding local mandates, I suspect.  I'd like to see it argued, though.
Now, maybe the state law could be found unconstitutional on some grounds that I haven't considered.
These governor executive orders are not state laws, right?  They were not legislated into existence.

I've been wondering since the beginning of all this, as state governors began issuing all sorts of executive orders, how they compare to actual laws?  How enforceable are they compared to laws?  How well would they hold up under judicial scrutiny compared to actual laws?  

I have no idea, no answers at all.  I've just been curious as to their nature and how they compare to laws that have been legislated into existence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 11, 2021, 05:30:29 PM
An executive order generally is an order by the head dude to people who work for him.  There are exceptions, and they tend to be dubious for various reasons, often they are nonbinding, like Biden's EO about 50% EVs by 2030, it has zero force of law or anything else.

They have evolved often into a kind of public announcement of an aspiration.

The "public health exception" is a pretty broad and wide window into a lot of stuff though, it's not well adjudicated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 11, 2021, 05:43:50 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 11, 2021, 05:22:35 PM
Not in defiance of a state law forbidding local mandates, I suspect.  I'd like to see it argued, though.
Now, maybe the state law could be found unconstitutional on some grounds that I haven't considered.
That is true, and it would be interesting. Although if it's a Governor's executive order rather than a state law, it may be treated differently.

But Badge's argument was this:

Quote
There should be no mandates at all. If a parent wants their child to wear one, then do it. If not, then don't.

Which is what Florida is saying. The issue is school districts making mandates. They should not, and Florida is trying to stop that.
He's saying that local school boards shouldn't be allowed to put mask mandates in place, and his justification for that to OAM was the Constitution. 

In that case his a priori argument must be that mask mandates enacted by local school boards are unconstitutional, and that Florida is adding an additional prohibition.

There may be an argument that local school boards cannot Constitutionally disobey state law or Governor's EO on this matter, but I don't think you can make an argument that absent a state law or EO that a mask mandate is not Constitutional.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 11, 2021, 05:48:39 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 11, 2021, 04:35:07 PM
This might be the most backwards-assed thing I've ever read. 
You're lost.
He is right on.   You mad Fro?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 11, 2021, 05:53:05 PM
Good place to insert the CDC Moratorium on evictions. 

Law?  No.   Constitutional? No- already determined.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 11, 2021, 06:22:05 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 11, 2021, 05:27:37 PM
These governor executive orders are not state laws, right?  They were not legislated into existence.

I've been wondering since the beginning of all this, as state governors began issuing all sorts of executive orders, how they compare to actual laws?  How enforceable are they compared to laws?  How well would they hold up under judicial scrutiny compared to actual laws? 

I have no idea, no answers at all.  I've just been curious as to their nature and how they compare to laws that have been legislated into existence.
Ah, I thought that your situation was like ours in this race to the bottom.  Our legislature passed a law and our governor signed it.  Nobody may require masks, nobody may require masking.  I don't know if it's explicit in the statute, but it's at least being interpreted to mean that no government agency (including public schools) may even inquire into anyone's vaccination status.  Which vastly complicates contact-tracing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 11, 2021, 06:42:47 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 11, 2021, 06:22:05 PM
Ah, I thought that your situation was like ours in this race to the bottom.  Our legislature passed a law and our governor signed it.  Nobody may require masks, nobody may require masking.  I don't know if it's explicit in the statute, but it's at least being interpreted to mean that no government agency (including public schools) may even inquire into anyone's vaccination status.  Which vastly complicates contact-tracing.

Ah, I see the confusion.  No, for us it's just an EO from the office of the governor.

The major urban school districts are openly defying it.  San Antonio sought a court injunction against the EO and was granted that.  But Austin, Dallas, and Houston, are just stating their policies which are in direct contradiction to the governor's EO, and daring the state to sue them.

Unlike our good friend Gigem, I don't believe for a second that the Texas governor is going to challenge them openly, because the majority of people in those cities are in support of the mask mandates, and he's up for reelection next year. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 11, 2021, 06:43:47 PM
FWIW . . .

CDC urges COVID vaccines during pregnancy as delta surges
By LINDSEY TANNER and MIKE STOBBE, AP Medical Writers
Aug 11, 2021 Updated 5 hrs ago


The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention urged all pregnant women Wednesday to get the COVID-19 vaccine as hospitals in hot spots around the U.S. see disturbing numbers of unvaccinated mothers-to-be seriously ill with the virus.
Expectant women run a higher higher risk of severe illness and pregnancy complications from the coronavirus, including perhaps miscarriages and stillbirths. But their vaccination rates are low, with only about 23% having received at least one dose, according to CDC data.
''The vaccines are safe and effective, and it has never been more urgent to increase vaccinations as we face the highly transmissible delta variant and see severe outcomes from COVID-19 among unvaccinated pregnant people,'' CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said in a statement.

The delta variant has driven COVID-19 cases in the U.S. back up to more than 100,000 a day. And while officials warn of a coming jump in hospitalizations and deaths, there are signs that some people who were previously reluctant have signed up for a vaccine.

The updated guidance comes after a CDC analysis of new safety data on 2,500 women showed no increased risks of miscarriage for those who received at least one dose of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine before 20 weeks of pregnancy. The analysis found a miscarriage rate of around 13%, within the normal range.

The CDC's advice echoes recent recommendations from top obstetrician groups. The agency had previously encouraged pregnant women to consider vaccination but had stopped short of a full recommendation. The new advice also applies to nursing mothers and women planning to get pregnant.
Although pregnant women were not included in studies that led to authorization of COVID-19 vaccines, experts say real-world experience in tens of thousands of women shows that the shots are safe for them and that when given during pregnancy may offer some protection to newborns.

The new guidance comes amid a surge in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths in the U.S., driven by the highly contagious delta variant.

In other news, my wife just saw on CBS News that there are tent hospitals in Houston.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on August 11, 2021, 06:48:50 PM
This went circular awhile back. 

Let me know when you’ve figured it all out.  <——sarcasm 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 11, 2021, 06:52:42 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 11, 2021, 06:42:47 PM
Ah, I see the confusion.  No, for us it's just an EO from the office of the governor.

The major urban school districts are openly defying it.  San Antonio sought a court injunction against the EO and was granted that.  But Austin, Dallas, and Houston, are just stating their policies which are in direct contradiction to the governor's EO, and daring the state to sue them.

Unlike our good friend Gigem, I don't believe for a second that the Texas governor is going to challenge them openly, because the majority of people in those cities are in support of the mask mandates, and he's up for reelection next year.
I agree that Abbott is unlikely to challenge them.  I'm guessing that his action was never about actually forcing cities to adopt policies that they don't agree with.  It was about being seen to have done his best to protect good, honest, Texas Patriots from evildoers who would make them wear masks.
We're having large numbers of people in Tulsa having to postpone elective surgeries.  That's a hidden cost to not getting the virus under control.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 11, 2021, 06:58:57 PM
The other thing about the powers of the Governor is that at least here in California, the Governor gets a lot more leeway in a declared state of emergency.

Thus, when rescinding most of the COVID restrictions, Newsom was very clear that he was NOT declaring the state of emergency ended, in case he needed to restore certain policies and didn't want his extra leeway and powers to go away. 

So there may be certain instances where in some states Governors are granted the ability to unilaterally write policy with force of law in a declared state of emergency--and I suspect most states went to that level when the pandemic hit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 11, 2021, 07:18:27 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 11, 2021, 06:52:42 PM
I agree that Abbott is unlikely to challenge them.  I'm guessing that his action was never about actually forcing cities to adopt policies that they don't agree with.  It was about being seen to have done his best to protect good, honest, Texas Patriots from evildoers who would make them wear masks.
We're having large numbers of people in Tulsa having to postpone elective surgeries.  That's a hidden cost to not getting the virus under control.

Indeed.  


(https://i.imgur.com/ypNPjt9.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 11, 2021, 07:28:26 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 11, 2021, 04:50:17 PM
Lost?

Maybe you should familiarize yourself with this document.

(https://i.imgur.com/MKisIcK.jpg)
It has nothing to do with the constitution.  Please stop trying to mic-drop and actually defend your reasoning here.  You, HB, and longhorn never seem to have any actual backing to what you say, just "you're outnumbered here, a-hole!" 
.
The governor of FL is forbidding local leadership groups from making decisions based on what's prudent for them.  You know, PRECISELY what you were FOR back when this thing first started spreading everywhere.  You've completely reversed your position just because the FL governor is a far-right fella who confirms all of your biases.  
.
Is there anything in the constitution about flip-floppers?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 11, 2021, 07:29:38 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 11, 2021, 05:48:39 PM
He is right on.  You mad Fro?
If you and him think I'm wrong, then I must be right.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 11, 2021, 09:52:15 PM
As I mentioned before, these are the kinds of questions I see from the "super-pro-vaccinated" crowd:


Quote
Up thread somebody is saying CDC was going to recommend booster shots.

Any ideas if “booster” is just another shot of normal vaccine? Would you have to get same brand? I am guessing yes on that.

Honestly been contemplating getting 2 of different flavor since it is so plentiful now. But maybe I should not do that cause I am sure the dumb fucks in ICU now want that shot as soon as possible.
When I or anyone else suggest things like, "This is probably something you should check with your doctor about, to determine her or his recommendation, since boosters are neither FDA approved nor CDC recommended at this time" the response is always, "Well of course doctors can't recommend it because of liability. But I did my own research on the internet and I'm comfortable with my decision."


These complete morons don't have the self-awareness to understand they sound exactly like the anti-vaxers they loathe, who are taking horse -paste and other weird stuff that they researched on the internet, despite doctor and CDC recommendations too, of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 11, 2021, 10:57:11 PM
Gov Abbott appears ready to go to court over his mask policy

It will be interesting to see who blinks first
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 11, 2021, 11:32:54 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 11, 2021, 07:28:26 PM
It has nothing to do with the constitution.  Please stop trying to mic-drop and actually defend your reasoning here.  You, HB, and longhorn never seem to have any actual backing to what you say, just "you're outnumbered here, a-hole!"
.
The governor of FL is forbidding local leadership groups from making decisions based on what's prudent for them.  You know, PRECISELY what you were FOR back when this thing first started spreading everywhere.  You've completely reversed your position just because the FL governor is a far-right fella who confirms all of your biases. 
.
Is there anything in the constitution about flip-floppers? 
Fro, did you mean to say

” The Governor of FL is ENABLING  local citizens to make decisions based on what’s prudent for them” and their children?  And “ forbidding government bureaucracies from imposing their will on those citizens, especially going against science.”  

Also, you say we are claiming “you’re outnumbered and you are an A-hole”.  That’s so unfair. We never said you are out numbered.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 11, 2021, 11:45:31 PM
As I fall asleep the night before a flight, I can’t remember where my box of masks is. I think it’s in the car. I hope it’s in the car. 

Also, I’m sore at United. Schmucks with their pricing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 11, 2021, 11:59:00 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 11, 2021, 11:32:54 PM
Fro, did you mean to say

” The Governor of FL is ENABLING  local citizens to make decisions based on what’s prudent for them” and their children?  And “ forbidding government bureaucracies from imposing their will on those citizens, especially going against science.” 

Also, you say we are claiming “you’re outnumbered and you are an A-hole”.  That’s so unfair. We never said you are out numbered.
Post of the month
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 12, 2021, 01:03:27 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 11, 2021, 11:32:54 PM
Fro, did you mean to say

” The Governor of FL is ENABLING  local citizens to make decisions based on what’s prudent for them” and their children?  And “ forbidding government bureaucracies from imposing their will on those citizens, especially going against science.” 

Also, you say we are claiming “you’re outnumbered and you are an A-hole”.  That’s so unfair. We never said you are out numbered.
So, as long as the governor's policy agrees with you, you don't mind him overriding local governments?
And, as long as the president's policy agrees with you, you don't mind him overriding state government, I'm guessing.
And, extending here a little, if the UN's vote was to your liking, you wouldn't mind the UN overriding the U.S. government?
Do you consider yourself a conservative, HB?
I ask because conservatives have since forever held up the idea that issues should be dealt with at the most local level possible.  When did that become no longer the case?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 12, 2021, 01:41:49 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 11, 2021, 10:57:11 PM
Gov Abbott appears ready to go to court over his mask policy

It will be interesting to see who blinks first
I don't see the school districts backing down.  They are strong in their conviction that they are doing the right thing.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 06:54:46 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 12, 2021, 01:03:27 AM
So, as long as the governor's policy agrees with you, you don't mind him overriding local governments?
And, as long as the president's policy agrees with you, you don't mind him overriding state government, I'm guessing.
And, extending here a little, if the UN's vote was to your liking, you wouldn't mind the UN overriding the U.S. government?
Do you consider yourself a conservative, HB?
I ask because conservatives have since forever held up the idea that issues should be dealt with at the most local level possible.  When did that become no longer the case?
CW- read what you just said.

in a choice ( that’s the key-choice) between local government and state, or state and federal- I tend usually favor the smaller or more local government- REGARDLESS of my personal position. 

But that is not the debate- or at least it shouldn’t be. On some things- it should go beyond government and down to individual choice. Personal choice, and the government needs to stay out of it.

That’s why this is not really political to me, although our nation seems to be polarized, and aligned politically, around many issues of individual freedom versus government control.

That’s why what the governor did happens to be favorable to me. Not because I agree with one side of the other but because I feel very strongly that the issue of having to wear masks should be a personal choice and decided at the individual level and not by the government.  So in a fact the governor put it in the peoples hands.

Now if you want to debate whether this specific issue should be in the peoples hands, that is absolutely fair debate, and one for which I can respect both sides of that argument. But it is not a political argument as much as it is a question of individual freedoms, at least to me and obviously many others.  Unfortunately because politicians take sides on this issue we gravitate towards the politicians but I could not care less about what the governor says other than in this case he is trying to promote individual decision making on this particular issue, which I happen to strongly agree with.

It would be hard for me to call myself a conservative. While there are many things that I might align with there-there are also many things that go very counter to what most conservatives would think. I am a big believer and supporter of human rights, including LGBTQ, minorities, and those who are poor or need assistance.

Also, We should be able to have this conversation, like you and I are right now, without going crazy and name-calling and making grandiose statements and things like that. Most of us are quite able to do that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 07:19:36 AM
Adding to previous post:

Betarhoalphadelta wrote a great post the other day regarding things that could save just one life, like eliminating access to fast food, decreasing the speed limit, etc.

It is really the same debate. There’s no chance we are all going to agree at what the level is, but at some level individuals are going to have to make choices that will impact not only their own safety and that of others. 

And when those lines are drawn, such as deciding what a speed limit is, I do tend to favor those rules being set at the most local level. But I also believe that some of those rules should be set at the individual level.

This is probably not the best analogy but whether kids wear a mask in school is a kin to how much fast food they are allowed to eat. I just don’t think any level of government has the right to tell an adult and furthermore what they allow their children to eat. All you can do is educate them, encourage them and ask how they’re doing but in the end they have to make that decision for themselves.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 12, 2021, 07:47:14 AM
Trends in Europe continue, death rate remains lower than in the previous surge, a lot lower.

I am a bit surprised US hospitals are reportedly filling up, close to cap in some areas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 12, 2021, 08:52:00 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 12, 2021, 07:47:14 AM
Trends in Europe continue, death rate remains lower than in the previous surge, a lot lower.

I am a bit surprised US hospitals are reportedly filling up, close to cap in some areas.
In our area, it's not entirely due to COVID.  There is a very nasty strain of RSV ("respiratory syncytial virus") that is going around, and putting a lot of people into the hospital.  This normally doesn't surge until midwinter, and this is the worst they've seen in decades.

Many of us noted over a year ago, that going a year without normal human interaction, was likely to result in a surge of more normal, non-COVID illness, once things started opening back up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 12, 2021, 09:32:27 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 07:19:36 AM
Adding to previous post:

Betarhoalphadelta wrote a great post the other day regarding things that could save just one life, like eliminating access to fast food, decreasing the speed limit, etc.

It is really the same debate. There’s no chance we are all going to agree at what the level is, but at some level individuals are going to have to make choices that will impact not only their own safety and that of others.

And when those lines are drawn, such as deciding what a speed limit is, I do tend to favor those rules being set at the most local level. But I also believe that some of those rules should be set at the individual level.

This is probably not the best analogy but whether kids wear a mask in school is a kin to how much fast food they are allowed to eat. I just don’t think any level of government has the right to tell an adult and furthermore what they allow their children to eat. All you can do is educate them, encourage them and ask how they’re doing but in the end they have to make that decision for themselves.
HB:

Thanks for the responses.

I have to say that how much kids (over)eat and what actions are necessary and proper in the face of a pandemic are not very much alike.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 12, 2021, 09:49:52 AM
(https://i.imgflip.com/5i60tz.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 12, 2021, 09:52:18 AM
They took the bar! The whole f***ing bar!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 12, 2021, 10:12:03 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 07:19:36 AM
It is really the same debate. There’s no chance we are all going to agree at what the level is, but at some level individuals are going to have to make choices that will impact not only their own safety and that of others.

And when those lines are drawn, such as deciding what a speed limit is, I do tend to favor those rules being set at the most local level. But I also believe that some of those rules should be set at the individual level.

This is probably not the best analogy but whether kids wear a mask in school is a kin to how much fast food they are allowed to eat. I just don’t think any level of government has the right to tell an adult and furthermore what they allow their children to eat. All you can do is educate them, encourage them and ask how they’re doing but in the end they have to make that decision for themselves.

I have to agree with @CWSooner (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1544) on this one. 

The better analogy to masks is speed limits, not how much food a kid is allowed to eat.

While there are negative externalities to overfeeding a child with a trash diet (later health care costs, some of which may end up being borne by taxpayers), the primary effect of overfeeding a child is that it's screwing up that child's health. 

Whereas in the middle of a pandemic, where we're dealing with a contagious virus and a respiratory disease, it's a completely different thing. Because one person, knowingly or unknowingly, might acquire the virus and transmit it to someone vulnerable, there are times when we have to make policies to reduce that spread that override individual choice, because the decision to wear a mask or not doesn't only affect the individual. 

We wouldn't set speed limits at 65 mph in a residential area because it would likely cause too many crashes and deaths, because the ability for one person to hurt an innocent other is MUCH more likely if we do. Yet at the same time we don't set speed limits at 25 mph on the freeway, because we have determined that the cost to society of slower travel is worse than the death toll of freeway crashes--which aren't trivial numbers. 

I personally don't feel it really matters either way whether kids have to wear masks in school. I don't see it as some horrible thing that will hurt them (as some do here), and given the absolutely minimal impact on kids from this virus, don't think it's saving them. I *did* feel that kids should have to wear masks in school before the vaccine availability was widespread, though, because although child-to-adult transmission appears to be less common than adult-to-adult transmission, adults who were vulnerable had no real recourse to protect themselves. But now that we have the vaccines, they do.

All that said, I disagree with the idea that a state government should prohibit local governments from enacting more restrictive measures than the state itself requires. If Broward's school board or county gov't thinks it's necessary to have a mask mandate in schools to reduce spread, I think that should be Broward's decision, not made in Tallahassee. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 12, 2021, 10:39:54 AM
I think school boards should make the decision as well.  I don't find wearing a mask to be all that onerous personally.  If it helps SOME, it's worth it, cost:benefit.

By some, I mean ten percent or so, my guess on mask effectiveness.  It might be 15% for sophisticated folks like us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 12, 2021, 10:43:53 AM
I had a followup with my cadiologist this AM.  I asked the nurse how folks in the office were doing, she said fine.  She said the hospital is in good shape capacity wise.  This is a large complex with a very recent large addition.  It is amazing how complicated these places become over time, every building has different numbering schemes.

(https://i.imgur.com/eW3ZFV8.jpg)

I'm doing well also.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 10:49:39 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 12, 2021, 09:32:27 AM
HB:

Thanks for the responses.

I have to say that how much kids (over)eat and what actions are necessary and proper in the face of a pandemic are not very much alike.
Agree.  Just couldn’t quickly come up with the best analogy. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 12, 2021, 10:51:16 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 12, 2021, 10:39:54 AM
I think school boards should make the decision as well.  I don't find wearing a mask to be all that onerous personally.  If it helps SOME, it's worth it, cost:benefit.

By some, I mean ten percent or so, my guess on mask effectiveness.  It might be 15% for sophisticated folks like us.
Let's say it's 10%.

My point is that 10% is meaningful when 0% of the country is vaccinated. But when most of the elderly and vulnerable are vaccinated, let's say 70%, a 10% improvement only will show up at 3% reduction in the results.

Or to put it another way, if masks are 10% effective at reducing spread while vaccination is 90% at reducing spread, getting one more person vaccinated is as important as convincing nine more people to wear masks. After all, if you're vaccinated, wearing a mask only chances your chances of spread from a 90% reduction to a 91% reduction.

The focus should be on getting people vaccinated, not on masking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 12, 2021, 10:53:58 AM
yes, but we have shown that masks can be forced on folks

so far forcing vaccines has been spotty
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 12, 2021, 11:06:11 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 12, 2021, 10:51:16 AM
Let's say it's 10%.

My point is that 10% is meaningful when 0% of the country is vaccinated. But when most of the elderly and vulnerable are vaccinated, let's say 70%, a 10% improvement only will show up at 3% reduction in the results.

Or to put it another way, if masks are 10% effective at reducing spread while vaccination is 90% at reducing spread, getting one more person vaccinated is as important as convincing nine more people to wear masks. After all, if you're vaccinated, wearing a mask only chances your chances of spread from a 90% reduction to a 91% reduction.

The focus should be on getting people vaccinated, not on masking.

Which takes us back to kids under 18 not being masked but unvaccinated teachers should be
School Boards should be emphasizing teachers getting vaccinated not forced masking the students
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 12, 2021, 11:08:18 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 12, 2021, 10:51:16 AM
Let's say it's 10%.

My point is that 10% is meaningful when 0% of the country is vaccinated. But when most of the elderly and vulnerable are vaccinated, let's say 70%, a 10% improvement only will show up at 3% reduction in the results.

Or to put it another way, if masks are 10% effective at reducing spread while vaccination is 90% at reducing spread, getting one more person vaccinated is as important as convincing nine more people to wear masks. After all, if you're vaccinated, wearing a mask only chances your chances of spread from a 90% reduction to a 91% reduction.

The focus should be on getting people vaccinated, not on masking.
That's the rub.  If everyone gets vaccinated, there will be virtually no need for masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 12, 2021, 11:10:38 AM
I certainly agree vaccination is the far more important goal, but we can't yet for under 12.  I'm for doing anything small that is helpful and not really very intrusive.

There really is quite a lot of vaccine "hysteria" out there, folks who want nothing to do with it and post all sorts of weird web sites claiming it has killed 4,000 people directly and so forth.  With confirmation bias driving opinions, folks find what they want to read and claim anything else is "fake news" purveyed by Bill Gates andthe NWO.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 11:13:49 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 12, 2021, 10:12:03 AM
I have to agree with @CWSooner (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1544) on this one.

The better analogy to masks is speed limits, not how much food a kid is allowed to eat.

While there are negative externalities to overfeeding a child with a trash diet (later health care costs, some of which may end up being borne by taxpayers), the primary effect of overfeeding a child is that it's screwing up that child's health.

Whereas in the middle of a pandemic, where we're dealing with a contagious virus and a respiratory disease, it's a completely different thing. Because one person, knowingly or unknowingly, might acquire the virus and transmit it to someone vulnerable, there are times when we have to make policies to reduce that spread that override individual choice, because the decision to wear a mask or not doesn't only affect the individual.

We wouldn't set speed limits at 65 mph in a residential area because it would likely cause too many crashes and deaths, because the ability for one person to hurt an innocent other is MUCH more likely if we do. Yet at the same time we don't set speed limits at 25 mph on the freeway, because we have determined that the cost to society of slower travel is worse than the death toll of freeway crashes--which aren't trivial numbers.

I personally don't feel it really matters either way whether kids have to wear masks in school. I don't see it as some horrible thing that will hurt them (as some do here), and given the absolutely minimal impact on kids from this virus, don't think it's saving them. I *did* feel that kids should have to wear masks in school before the vaccine availability was widespread, though, because although child-to-adult transmission appears to be less common than adult-to-adult transmission, adults who were vulnerable had no real recourse to protect themselves. But now that we have the vaccines, they do.

All that said, I disagree with the idea that a state government should prohibit local governments from enacting more restrictive measures than the state itself requires. If Broward's school board or county gov't thinks it's necessary to have a mask mandate in schools to reduce spread, I think that should be Broward's decision, not made in Tallahassee.
Fair argument.  Very sound
I don’t know what the exact analogy is but I can’t use something like speed limits which is clearly something that is set to varying degrees. You can’t do masks that way. It’s an all or nothing thing so you have to find an analogy that is an all or nothing thing.

again, back to the science and the data, there are no comprehensive studies in existence which illustrate that masks are effective in the slowing of the spread of Covid or Delta. None. There are some studies which are maybe not conclusive but certainly point towards masks doing more harm to children both physically and psychologically.

It Gets back to what you said in one of your other posts. The vaccine is available and people have a choice of whether or not to get it. Forcing people to wear masks so those who are vaccinated can be protected, especially in the face of no evidence to support that it even works, it’s just not something I feel a school board or any government has the right to mandate.  But I understand and respect a different opinion.

The bigger point I was making for a certain cuckoo poster was that there are three scenarios here under the governor Abbott and governor DeSantis executive order:

1. you want your kids to wear masks at school, you get your way.
2. you don’t want your kids to wear masks at school, you get your way.
3. you want to control what other people must do, You do not get your way.

it’s a win-win for those who want to control and be responsible for their own decisions. It’s a lose for those who want to control others.  So, the only thing being “forbidden” is controlling others personal decisions.


any mandate or position automatically eliminates number one or number two and grants number three.  Being consistent with your previous position about having to wear masks you would then agree with this but you don’t. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 12, 2021, 11:14:05 AM
Seems like the vax for 12 & unders has got to be coming along soon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on August 12, 2021, 11:15:06 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 12, 2021, 11:06:11 AM

School Boards should be emphasizing teachers getting vaccinated not forced masking the students
And getting vaccines into student's arms as soon as it becomes permitted to do so. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 12, 2021, 11:17:34 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 11:13:49 AM
Fair argument.  Very sound
I don’t know what the exact analogy is but I can’t use something like speed limits which is clearly something that is set to varying degrees. You can’t do masks that way. It’s an all or nothing thing so you have to find an analogy that is an all or nothing thing.

again, back to the science and the data, there are no comprehensive studies in existence which illustrate that masks are effective in the slowing of the spread of Covid or Delta. None. There are some studies which are maybe not conclusive but certainly point towards masks doing more harm to children both physically and psychologically.

It Gets back to what you said in one of your other posts. The vaccine is available and people have a choice of whether or not to get it. Forcing people to wear masks so those who are vaccinated can be protected, especially in the face of no evidence to support that it even works, it’s just not something I feel a school board or any government has the right to mandate.  But I understand and respect a different opinion.

The bigger point I was making for a certain cuckoo poster was that there are three scenarios here under the governor Abbott and governor DeSantis executive order:

1. you want your kids to wear masks at school, you get your way.
2. you don’t want your kids to wear masks at school, you get your way.
3. you want to control what other people must do, You do not get your way.

it’s a win-win for those who want to control and be responsible for their own decisions. It’s a lose for those who want to control others.  So, the only thing being “forbidden” is controlling others personal decisions.


any mandate or position automatically eliminates number one or number two and grants number three.  Being consistent with your previous position about having to wear masks you would then agree with this but you don’t.
What about when the other person is bullying your kid?  Are going to want somebody to control what that person is doing?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 11:20:39 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 12, 2021, 11:17:34 AM
What about when the other person is bullying your kid?  Are going to want somebody to control what that person is doing?
Yes!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 11:22:20 AM
If you believe that a person walking around in school without a mask is a risk to your child, like a bully, for example then how can you not believe that your child wearing a mask does not protect you from the bully? Either you think masks help or you don’t.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 12, 2021, 11:24:15 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 12, 2021, 11:06:11 AM
Which takes us back to kids under 18 not being masked but unvaccinated teachers should be
School Boards should be emphasizing teachers getting vaccinated not forced masking the students
Is there some solid evidence that wearing masks horribly traumatizes kids?

My wife just retired from working for 15 years as a reading specialist at a school for kids who are "on the spectrum."  If any kids might be freaked out by masks, these would likely be the ones.  They don't like wearing masks, but they adapted to it as it was explained to them that wearing masks helps stop the spread of a disease that kills people, and that wearing a mask is very much preferable to wearing a ventilator.
And my own experience is that kids don't like them, but that it doesn't drive them crazy to do so.  It's an annoyance.  For me, it's an annoyance.  But I'd rather have my students in the classroom wearing masks than be talking to their avatars on Google Meets.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 12, 2021, 11:25:46 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 11:22:20 AM
If you believe that a person walking around in school without a mask is a risk to your child, like a bully, for example then how can you not believe that your child wearing a mask does not protect you from the bully? Either you think masks help or you don’t.
Could you reword that question?  All after "then how can you not believe"?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 12, 2021, 11:28:31 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 12, 2021, 11:14:05 AM
Seems like the vax for 12 & unders has got to be coming along soon.
December is what I'm hearing.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 12, 2021, 11:30:43 AM
Quote from: utee94 on August 12, 2021, 11:28:31 AM
December is what I'm hearing.
That will be good.
Not as good as it ought to be, of course, for the same reasons that the presence of the vax that has been out since February hasn't been as good as it ought to be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 11:31:55 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 12, 2021, 11:24:15 AM
Is there some solid evidence that wearing masks horribly traumatizes kids?

My wife just retired from working for 15 years as a reading specialist at a school for kids who are "on the spectrum."  If any kids might be freaked out by masks, these would likely be the ones.  They don't like wearing masks, but they adapted to it as it was explained to them that wearing masks helps stop the spread of a disease that kills people, and that wearing a mask is very much preferable to wearing a ventilator.
And my own experience is that kids don't like them, but that it doesn't drive them crazy to do so.  It's an annoyance.  For me, it's an annoyance.  But I'd rather have my students in the classroom wearing masks than be talking to their avatars on Google Meets.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/children-should-not-be-forced-to-wear-masks-due-to-co2-levels-new-study-suggests/ar-AALFKTk

There are plenty of these out there. I could’ve cut and pasted at least a dozen for you.
By no means do I consider this conclusive but it certainly points in the direction, which is more than can be said for any comprehensive study that illustrates that masks protect children and limit the spread, because there is no such data
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 12, 2021, 11:32:30 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 12, 2021, 10:53:58 AM
yes, but we have shown that masks can be forced on folks

so far forcing vaccines has been spotty
This is an excellent point and is really at the crux of the argument.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 12, 2021, 11:36:09 AM
An evidence review of face masks against COVID-19 | PNAS (https://www.pnas.org/content/118/4/e2014564118)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 11:36:36 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 12, 2021, 11:25:46 AM
Could you reword that question?  All after "then how can you not believe"?
Well you asked me about bullies and do I think we should control the actions of others, and you use the example of a bully in school. Of course your point is valid, as I think if someone is bullying your child we should absolutely control the behavior of that “other” child, the bully.

The point I am trying to make and asking you that question is this:

If you are trying to compare a child walking around without a mask as a danger to your child,
then you are saying that person should be masked. Which in turn means you think masks work.
but if you believe that masks work to help protect children, then why is masking your own child not sufficient? If they work who cares if the other child is not masked?

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 12, 2021, 11:41:13 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 11:31:55 AM
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/children-should-not-be-forced-to-wear-masks-due-to-co2-levels-new-study-suggests/ar-AALFKTk

There are plenty of these out there. I could’ve cut and pasted at least a dozen for you.
By no means do I consider this conclusive but it certainly points in the direction, which is more than can be said for any comprehensive study that illustrates that masks protect children and limit the spread, because there is no such data
You're right--it's not conclusive.

In any event, I'm dealing with kids at the high end of that test, and the results were worse for the younger kids than the older ones.  I think in general that the arguments against kids wearing masks are much stronger for kindergartners than they are for high-schoolers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 11:44:09 AM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 12, 2021, 11:41:13 AM
You're right--it's not conclusive.

In any event, I'm dealing with kids at the high end of that test, and the results were worse for the younger kids than the older ones.  I think in general that the arguments against kids wearing masks are much stronger for kindergartners than they are for high-schoolers.
Agree with you wholeheartedly and the data backs you up on that. The data says that the younger you are the greater your chances of not getting or surviving Covid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 12, 2021, 11:45:08 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 11:36:36 AM
Well you asked me about bullies and do I think we should control the actions of others, and you use the example of a bully in school. Of course your point is valid, as I think if someone is bullying your child we should absolutely control the behavior of that “other” child, the bully.

The point I am trying to make and asking you that question is this:

If you are trying to compare a child walking around without a mask as a danger to your child,
then you are saying that person should be masked. Which in turn means you think masks work.
but if you believe that masks work to help protect children, then why is masking your own child not sufficient? If they work who cares if the other child is not masked?
Because masks work much better at preventing transmission than they do at preventing reception.
You wear a mask more to protect others than to protect yourself.
And the high school kid I'm talking about who refuses to wear a mask is probably also refusing to get vaccinated.  He is much more likely to be unvaccinated than his classmates who are wearing masks are.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 12, 2021, 11:45:47 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 11:36:36 AM
Well you asked me about bullies and do I think we should control the actions of others, and you use the example of a bully in school. Of course your point is valid, as I think if someone is bullying your child we should absolutely control the behavior of that “other” child, the bully.

The point I am trying to make and asking you that question is this:

If you are trying to compare a child walking around without a mask as a danger to your child,
then you are saying that person should be masked. Which in turn means you think masks work.
but if you believe that masks work to help protect children, then why is masking your own child not sufficient? If they work who cares if the other child is not masked?

 


The vast majority of masks being worn by people, and an even higher percentage for children, are not N95. They are either surgical masks, or cloth ones.

There is no value to the wearer, no protection afforded them against the airborne virus, from using a surgical or cloth mask.

However, they certainly do work as spit-catchers.  Both inbound and outbound.  And although there hasn't been much study, I think it's reasonable to believe that there is some value in preventing people's spit from entering each other's mouths, either through coughing, sneezing, spitting, speaking, singing, or yelling.

So yes, there is some value in wearing the masks, for ALL people that will be within cough/sneeze/spit-projectile distance of one another.

That value is substantially less than vaccinations, orders of magnitude lower, which renders a mask irrelevant to people that are vaccinated.  But for the unvaccinated which includes every child younger than 12, and a large percentage over 12, the masks provide at least some protection from being spit on by others, or spitting on others yourself.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 12:10:06 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 12, 2021, 11:45:08 AM
Because masks work much better at preventing transmission than they do at preventing reception.
You wear a mask more to protect others than to protect yourself.
And the high school kid I'm talking about who refuses to wear a mask is probably also refusing to get vaccinated.  He is much more likely to be unvaccinated than his classmates who are wearing masks are.
There are a lot of people that would disagree with this and if you just look at the folks who post here many have already said they disagree with this. They are of the mindset that I got vaccinated so therefore I do not need to wear a mask.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 12:13:27 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 12, 2021, 11:45:47 AM

The vast majority of masks being worn by people, and an even higher percentage for children, are not N95. They are either surgical masks, or cloth ones.

There is no value to the wearer, no protection afforded them against the airborne virus, from using a surgical or cloth mask.

However, they certainly do work as spit-catchers.  Both inbound and outbound.  And although there hasn't been much study, I think it's reasonable to believe that there is some value in preventing people's spit from entering each other's mouths, either through coughing, sneezing, spitting, speaking, singing, or yelling.

So yes, there is some value in wearing the masks, for ALL people that will be within cough/sneeze/spit-projectile distance of one another.

That value is substantially less than vaccinations, orders of magnitude lower, which renders a mask irrelevant to people that are vaccinated.  But for the unvaccinated which includes every child younger than 12, and a large percentage over 12, the masks provide at least some protection from being spit on by others, or spitting on others yourself.



All true. So, when you weigh that against the data that talks about the rare and miniature risk of those 12 and under, you have to decide I guess whether to force it or leave it to personal choice.

also I don’t think it’s unreasonable to believe that if we establish mask wearing to avoid spitting and other germs spreading as a excepted matter of public policy. Then we can expect masks to be close to a permanent thing or certainly pulled out every time flu numbers pick up. After all statistically speaking the flu is of substantially greater risk to children under 12 then Covid is. Substantially.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 12, 2021, 12:25:37 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 12:10:06 PM
There are a lot of people that would disagree with this and if you just look at the folks who post here many have already said they disagree with this. They are of the mindset that I got vaccinated so therefore I do not need to wear a mask.
My personal experience with 120 students last year was that the ones who bitched about wearing masks were the same kids who damn sure weren't going to get vaccinated.  Any socially responsible action was surrendering to the "mind-controllers."

And my teacher colleagues report the same correlation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 12:26:02 PM
https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2021-08-12-new-study--pfizer-vaccine-efficacy-against-delta-modification-42-percent.BkwBnuzxK.html

These are only preliminary findings, and there has yet been no peer review. But mayo clinic is usually pretty good and they’re saying that the Pfizer vaccine is substantially less affective versus the Delta variant then is the Moderno vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 12:27:30 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 12, 2021, 12:25:37 PM
My personal experience with 120 students last year was that the ones who bitched about wearing masks were the same kids who damn sure weren't going to get vaccinated.  Any socially responsible action was surrendering to the "mind-controllers."

And my teacher colleagues report the same correlation.
Yeah/ tough crowd.   Not fun to try to persuade 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 12, 2021, 12:28:44 PM
I'm glad that my wife and I got the Moderna.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 12, 2021, 12:45:18 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 12, 2021, 12:28:44 PM
I'm glad that my wife and I got the Moderna.
Same here.

Unfortunately, the only one approved for 12 year old kids, is Pfizer.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 12, 2021, 12:52:36 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 12:26:02 PM
https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2021-08-12-new-study--pfizer-vaccine-efficacy-against-delta-modification-42-percent.BkwBnuzxK.html

These are only preliminary findings, and there has yet been no peer review. But mayo clinic is usually pretty good and they’re saying that the Pfizer vaccine is substantially less affective versus the Delta variant then is the Moderno vaccine.
Im not sold yet because too many other things could affect the findings

not saying its wrong only that more study is needed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 12, 2021, 12:57:44 PM
I've seen some speculation that it could be related to the dosage, rather than the vaccine itself.  The dosage for Moderna is higher than the dosage for Pfizer.

And if that were true, then it's possible that simply getting a booster of the Pfizer, could get it back to level compared to Moderna.

But of course, I wouldn't go getting a 3rd shot/booster, until recommended by an actual medical professional. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on August 12, 2021, 01:09:36 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 12, 2021, 11:24:15 AM
Is there some solid evidence that wearing masks horribly traumatizes kids?

My wife just retired from working for 15 years as a reading specialist at a school for kids who are "on the spectrum."  If any kids might be freaked out by masks, these would likely be the ones.  They don't like wearing masks, but they adapted to it as it was explained to them that wearing masks helps stop the spread of a disease that kills people, and that wearing a mask is very much preferable to wearing a ventilator.
And my own experience is that kids don't like them, but that it doesn't drive them crazy to do so.  It's an annoyance.  For me, it's an annoyance.  But I'd rather have my students in the classroom wearing masks than be talking to their avatars on Google Meets.
But the part about wearing the mask vs wearing the ventilator isn’t really true for kids though right?  Because by far and wide kids are much less affected by covid than any other age group. 

Not to say you can’t find kids that have been seriously ill or even died from it. But statistically it’s a very small number. I haven’t looked at the county stats here in awhile but as far as I know there have not been any deaths of kids in this county from covid. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 12, 2021, 01:38:09 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 12, 2021, 12:57:44 PM
But of course, I wouldn't go getting a 3rd shot/booster, until recommended by an actual medical professional.
You mean you'd turn a deaf ear to the sage advice offered up by this council of Elders?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 12, 2021, 01:39:19 PM
If someone had a Pfizer third shot that was about to be discarded, I'd take it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 12, 2021, 01:42:32 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on August 12, 2021, 01:38:09 PM
You mean you'd turn a deaf ear to the sage advice offered up by this council of Elders?

Uhhh.... yeah.  Definitely. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 12, 2021, 02:21:10 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 12, 2021, 01:39:19 PM
If someone had a Pfizer third shot that was about to be discarded, I'd take it.
me too
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 12, 2021, 02:45:04 PM
YouTube suspended Sen. Rand Paul's account on Tuesday for posting a video claiming cloth face masks are ineffective against the coronavirus.

“A badge of honor ... leftwing cretins at Youtube banning me for 7 days for a video that quotes 2 peer reviewed articles saying cloth masks don’t work,” Paul, R-Ky., tweeted.

Paul falsely claimed in the removed video, “Most of the masks you get over the counter don’t work. They don’t prevent infection," adding that “cloth masks don’t work."


https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/youtube-suspends-sen-rand-paul-over-video-falsely-claiming-masks-n1276534 (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/youtube-suspends-sen-rand-paul-over-video-falsely-claiming-masks-n1276534)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 02:46:42 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 12, 2021, 02:45:04 PM
YouTube suspended Sen. Rand Paul's account on Tuesday for posting a video claiming cloth face masks are ineffective against the coronavirus.

“A badge of honor ... leftwing cretins at Youtube banning me for 7 days for a video that quotes 2 peer reviewed articles saying cloth masks don’t work,” Paul, R-Ky., tweeted.

Paul falsely claimed in the removed video, “Most of the masks you get over the counter don’t work. They don’t prevent infection," adding that “cloth masks don’t work."


https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/youtube-suspends-sen-rand-paul-over-video-falsely-claiming-masks-n1276534 (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/youtube-suspends-sen-rand-paul-over-video-falsely-claiming-masks-n1276534)
What is false about that claim?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 12, 2021, 03:02:28 PM
apparently they're referring to the spitlet droplets
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on August 12, 2021, 03:58:34 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 11, 2021, 03:28:52 PM
Well, I think we were talking about long term effects, not short term mortality risk.

I think we already have evidence that mortality due to either COVID or the vaccine are not typical for otherwise healthy pregnant women, nor have I heard of any short-term effects of either that negatively harm the baby.

My point was that we have NO idea what the long term effects are of COVID on a child who was exposed to it in the womb. Just as we have NO idea what the long term effects are of the vaccine on a child whose mother gets it during pregnancy.

BTW I'm not saying that the pregnant lady in my example didn't choose correctly in choosing not to get the vaccine. I didn't have to advise anyone on making that choice, and I have not looked at any research whatsoever. It's entirely possible that avoiding the vaccine if you're pregnant is the rational decision.

What I'm saying is that for most people--pregnant or not--looking at the choice of getting or not getting the vaccine, they're evaluating the vaccine's potential long term effects but they're ignoring the fact that we have no idea what the long term effects are of COVID. Yet they're willing to "take a chance" on getting COVID and potentially dealing with the long-term effects because "getting COVID" doesn't require agency, while affirmatively getting the vaccine does.
We have seen that for the most part coronaviruses, in general, have not had any real long term effects on babies in the womb. Of course this is a unique coronavirus, in that I am convinced it was partially man-made and accidently released into the public, but other than a very high R naught, this virus seems to act like other coronaviruses. 

That said we have had no experience at all with this type of vaccine and its effect on a baby in the womb.

I will take a general knowledge of the risk over the completely unknown knowledge of the risk any day for my son to be born grandson. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 12, 2021, 04:05:44 PM
San Francisco will require proof of full vaccination against coronavirus for indoor activities, including restaurants, bars and gyms.

Mayor London Breed made the announcement Thursday, saying it is needed to protect the health of workers, customers and the city overall. The move is more stringent than the requirement announced by New York City’s mayor last week. San Francisco will require proof of full vaccination for all customers and staff, while New York is requiring proof of at least one shot for indoor activities.

It will take effect next Friday, but businesses will have two months to verify employees’ vaccination status “to preserve jobs while giving time for compliance.” It doesn’t apply to people ineligible for vaccines, including kids under 12.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 12, 2021, 04:08:30 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 12, 2021, 04:05:44 PM
San Francisco will require proof of full vaccination against coronavirus for indoor activities, including restaurants, bars and gyms.

Mayor London Breed made the announcement Thursday, saying it is needed to protect the health of workers, customers and the city overall. The move is more stringent than the requirement announced by New York City’s mayor last week. San Francisco will require proof of full vaccination for all customers and staff, while New York is requiring proof of at least one shot for indoor activities.

It will take effect next Friday, but businesses will have two months to verify employees’ vaccination status “to preserve jobs while giving time for compliance.” It doesn’t apply to people ineligible for vaccines, including kids under 12.

It will be interesting to see if a City can require this for private businesses 

wonder how long before its challenged in court
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 12, 2021, 04:33:08 PM
Quote from: Gigem on August 12, 2021, 01:09:36 PM
But the part about wearing the mask vs wearing the ventilator isn’t really true for kids though right?  Because by far and wide kids are much less affected by covid than any other age group.

Not to say you can’t find kids that have been seriously ill or even died from it. But statistically it’s a very small number. I haven’t looked at the county stats here in awhile but as far as I know there have not been any deaths of kids in this county from covid.
How about "inadvertently putting an older adult on a ventilator"?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 12, 2021, 04:34:21 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 12, 2021, 04:08:30 PM
It will be interesting to see if a City can require this for private businesses

wonder how long before its challenged in court
Not as long as it took our state law forbidding anybody from requiring masks to get challenged.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 12, 2021, 05:27:28 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 11:13:49 AM

Quote
I don’t know what the exact analogy is but I can’t use something like speed limits which is clearly something that is set to varying degrees. You can’t do masks that way. It’s an all or nothing thing so you have to find an analogy that is an all or nothing thing.

again, back to the science and the data, there are no comprehensive studies in existence which illustrate that masks are effective in the slowing of the spread of Covid or Delta. None. There are some studies which are maybe not conclusive but certainly point towards masks doing more harm to children both physically and psychologically.


The thing with masks is that it's not an all or nothing thing. Here in California, vaccinated people are not required to wear masks in indoor situations with some exceptions, such as healthcare. Unvaccinated people are required to wear masks indoors (not that anyone enforces it). Nobody is required to wear masks outdoors. Statewide there is a mandate that kids wear masks in schools, which at least for the under-12 contingent is 100% consistent with requiring unvaccinated people to wear masks, because nobody under 12 can be vaccinated yet. So it's not all-or-nothing.

I looked up a couple of studies and most show that there can be a reduction of R0 due to mask policies. Whether we can call them "conclusive" or not is hard. Not a hill I'm gonna die on, but I do believe that masks and other NPIs are at least somewhat effective at reducing spread.



Quote
The bigger point I was making for a certain cuckoo poster was that there are three scenarios here under the governor Abbott and governor DeSantis executive order:

1. you want your kids to wear masks at school, you get your way.
2. you don’t want your kids to wear masks at school, you get your way.
3. you want to control what other people must do, You do not get your way.

it’s a win-win for those who want to control and be responsible for their own decisions. It’s a lose for those who want to control others.  So, the only thing being “forbidden” is controlling others personal decisions.

But again, this is a pandemic. It's one thing to be responsible for your own decisions. It's another when your own decisions spread a virus that can kill people. It's a basic problem of externalities. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 12, 2021, 05:33:50 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 12, 2021, 11:24:15 AM
My wife just retired from working for 15 years as a reading specialist at a school for kids who are "on the spectrum."  If any kids might be freaked out by masks, these would likely be the ones.  They don't like wearing masks, but they adapted to it as it was explained to them that wearing masks helps stop the spread of a disease that kills people, and that wearing a mask is very much preferable to wearing a ventilator.
Hell, my son is severely autistic. There is no "explaining" masking to him. 

He wears his mask because that's what we expect. For all his sensory issues that he's had over the years, he puts the mask on. I'm sure he doesn't like it--hell, I didn't like it. But I don't see how it's harming him. 

Quote from: utee94 on August 12, 2021, 11:32:30 AM
This is an excellent point and is really at the crux of the argument. 

And it's the argument that pisses me off. 


The problem is the unvaccinated. Because they're unwilling to say "I'll wear a mask instead of getting vaccinated", they're saying "F the masks, F the vaccine, F the gov't."

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 05:34:37 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 12, 2021, 05:27:28 PM
again, back to the science and the data, there are no comprehensive studies in existence which illustrate that masks are effective in the slowing of the spread of Covid or Delta. None. There are some studies which are maybe not conclusive but certainly point towards masks doing more harm to children both physically and psychologically.



The thing with masks is that it's not an all or nothing thing. Here in California, vaccinated people are not required to wear masks in indoor situations with some exceptions, such as healthcare. Unvaccinated people are required to wear masks indoors (not that anyone enforces it). Nobody is required to wear masks outdoors. Statewide there is a mandate that kids wear masks in schools, which at least for the under-12 contingent is 100% consistent with requiring unvaccinated people to wear masks, because nobody under 12 can be vaccinated yet. So it's not all-or-nothing.

I looked up a couple of studies and most show that there can be a reduction of R0 due to mask policies. Whether we can call them "conclusive" or not is hard. Not a hill I'm gonna die on, but I do believe that masks and other NPIs are at least somewhat effective at reducing spread.



But again, this is a pandemic. It's one thing to be responsible for your own decisions. It's another when your own decisions spread a virus that can kill people. It's a basic problem of externalities.

So- some people can drive 50 mph on a certain road- but others can go 70?

To any given individual- a mask mandate IS an all or nothing thing. If you have to- you have to. 

if you agree with that, I get it.  For schools- I don’t. But it’s not something I would die on a hill for. 




Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 12, 2021, 05:39:22 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 12:10:06 PM
There are a lot of people that would disagree with this and if you just look at the folks who post here many have already said they disagree with this. They are of the mindset that I got vaccinated so therefore I do not need to wear a mask.
You're mischaracterizing the argument. 

I absolutely believe that the primary advantage of masks is to slow the spread, and primarily it's not to keep the wearer from being infected (although I think it provides *some* protection) but that it keeps the wearer from infecting others.

I wore a mask just fine when the vaccine wasn't widespread. That wasn't because I wasn't vaccinated--it was because vulnerable people weren't vaccinated and I didn't want to inadvertently kill one of them. 

Now, the vaccine is widespread, and the vulnerable have more than adequate access to it. So now, my wearing a mask means I'm protecting the stubborn and the stupid. And I just don't feel willing to do that. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 12, 2021, 05:40:06 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 12, 2021, 04:33:08 PM
How about "inadvertently putting an older adult on a ventilator"?
how about that older adult getting vaccinated

what a novel idea
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 05:41:07 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 12, 2021, 05:33:50 PM
Hell, my son is severely autistic. There is no "explaining" masking to him.

He wears his mask because that's what we expect. For all his sensory issues that he's had over the years, he puts the mask on. I'm sure he doesn't like it--hell, I didn't like it. But I don't see how it's harming him.

And it's the argument that pisses me off.

  • We can't force everyone to get the vaccine.
  • We can say that unvaccinated people need to wear masks, and vaccinated people do. But this just means that nobody will wear masks, because the unvaccinated people aren't going to volunteer the information that they're unvaccinated.
  • So we decide that we want to force everyone to wear masks, BECAUSE the unvaccinated won't wear masks or get vaccinated. Thus punishing the vaccinated for the failure of the unvaccinated to comply with either.

The problem is the unvaccinated. Because they're unwilling to say "I'll wear a mask instead of getting vaccinated", they're saying "F the masks, F the vaccine, F the gov't."


Your kind of changing your opinion here.
obviously you have a vaccine that you believe is extremely effective and you have the data to back it up.    You should not be required to wear a mask nor should you be worried if anyone else is. ( this has been your position so far)

The more you are worried about others wearing a mask the more it illustrates your lack of faith in the vaccine, which just perpetuates the people who don’t want to vaccinate. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 12, 2021, 05:42:42 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 12, 2021, 05:39:22 PM
You're mischaracterizing the argument.

I absolutely believe that the primary advantage of masks is to slow the spread, and primarily it's not to keep the wearer from being infected (although I think it provides *some* protection) but that it keeps the wearer from infecting others.

I wore a mask just fine when the vaccine wasn't widespread. That wasn't because I wasn't vaccinated--it was because vulnerable people weren't vaccinated and I didn't want to inadvertently kill one of them.

Now, the vaccine is widespread, and the vulnerable have more than adequate access to it. So now, my wearing a mask means I'm protecting the stubborn and the stupid. And I just don't feel willing to do that.

Yes, my sentiments exactly.

Speaking of masking, my kids got back from their mask-optional middle school today, and reported about 50% were wearing masks.  That's actually more than I expected, but I'll be surprised if it sticks.  Without anyone insisting on it, I suspect fewer each day, will bother to put on the mask.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 05:43:08 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 12, 2021, 05:39:22 PM
You're mischaracterizing the argument.

I absolutely believe that the primary advantage of masks is to slow the spread, and primarily it's not to keep the wearer from being infected (although I think it provides *some* protection) but that it keeps the wearer from infecting others.

I wore a mask just fine when the vaccine wasn't widespread. That wasn't because I wasn't vaccinated--it was because vulnerable people weren't vaccinated and I didn't want to inadvertently kill one of them.

Now, the vaccine is widespread, and the vulnerable have more than adequate access to it. So now, my wearing a mask means I'm protecting the stubborn and the stupid. And I just don't feel willing to do that.
You just stated my position!   That’s my point. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 12, 2021, 05:47:13 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 05:34:37 PM
So- some people can drive 50 mph on a certain road- but others can go 70?

To any given individual- a mask mandate IS an all or nothing thing. If you have to- you have to. 

if you agree with that, I get it.  For schools- I don’t. But it’s not something I would die on a hill for. 
Well, we already have that regarding speed limits. On most highways, the speed limit for cars is different than the speed limit for trucks with trailers. We discriminate.

However my point was more that regarding an "all or nothing" thing, a 25 mph speed limit in a residential area doesn't mean that you have to have a 25 mph speed limit on a highway. 

In California, certain indoor activities--such as health care--require masks. That doesn't mean masks are required at the supermarket. It doesn't mean masks are required outdoors. Hence, not "all or nothing". 

A vaccinated 15 year old doesn't have to wear a mask at the supermarket. They have to wear a mask at school or at their doctor. 

What I'm saying is that policy can be tailored to the situation. I may not think a mask mandate in schools is necessary, but given a pandemic, I don't think it's an abrogation of individual rights. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 12, 2021, 05:48:53 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 05:43:08 PM
You just stated my position!  That’s my point.
Well shoot, I'm glad that's resolved!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 12, 2021, 05:55:11 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 12, 2021, 05:40:06 PM
how about that older adult getting vaccinated

what a novel idea
Exactly. They've had access for months now. They shouldn't be relying on other people to mask to protect them.

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 05:41:07 PM
Your kind of changing your opinion here.
obviously you have a vaccine that you believe is extremely effective and you have the data to back it up.    You should not be required to wear a mask nor should you be worried if anyone else is. ( this has been your position so far)

The more you are worried about others wearing a mask the more it illustrates your lack of faith in the vaccine, which just perpetuates the people who don’t want to vaccinate. 
Not changing my opinion. I'm not worried about others wearing masks. I'm attacking your argument, not your opinion ;-) 

Your argument was that wearing a mask (or having your kids wear a mask) is purely an individual decision. I'm saying it's not, just like how fast you're going to drive through a school zone is not purely an individual decision. It is acceptable for the government to set speed limits, and in the middle of a worldwide pandemic, it's acceptable for the government to have a mask mandate. 

RIGHT NOW, I don't think the science justifies it. But that doesn't mean that I approve of a Governor taking away that decision from a local school board. 

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 05:43:08 PM
You just stated my position!  That’s my point.

This is why I'm a difficult person... I can agree with your endpoint without agreeing with your route to get there ;-) 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 06:23:52 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 12, 2021, 05:48:53 PM
Well shoot, I'm glad that's resolved!

😂😂😂😂😂😂

Touche.  Bastage. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 12, 2021, 08:25:45 PM
https://www.wbrz.com/news/report-new-orleans-plans-to-require-vaccine-or-negative-covid-test-to-enter-restaurants-venues/

New Orleans will require vaccine or negative COVID test to enter restaurants, venues



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 08:46:17 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 12, 2021, 08:25:45 PM
https://www.wbrz.com/news/report-new-orleans-plans-to-require-vaccine-or-negative-covid-test-to-enter-restaurants-venues/

New Orleans will require vaccine or negative COVID test to enter restaurants, venues




I still wonder if/ when this will include CFB games?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 12, 2021, 10:38:33 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 08:46:17 PM
I still wonder if/ when this will include CFB games?
Because they are outside it may not happen for CFB
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 12, 2021, 11:18:18 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 12, 2021, 05:40:06 PM
how about that older adult getting vaccinated

what a novel idea
unfortunately, I think the data is telling us that vaccinated older adults are still dying of COVID

that could include teachers
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 13, 2021, 12:06:12 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 12, 2021, 11:18:18 PM
unfortunately, I think the data is telling us that vaccinated older adults are still dying of COVID

that could include teachers
yes but a very low number certainly low enough that older adults should still get vaccinated
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 13, 2021, 12:07:19 AM

Boosters here we go

https://www.foxnews.com/health/fda-covid-19-booster-vaccine-immunocompromised
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 13, 2021, 12:29:27 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 12, 2021, 12:10:06 PM
There are a lot of people that 
The rest of your sentence is irrelevant.  

People like you need to stop trying to crowdsource the truth.  You cant out-freedom the truth, either.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on August 13, 2021, 01:49:51 AM
There is something to be said about Darwinism. Humans modified the equation a bit from survival of the strongest to survival of the smartest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 13, 2021, 06:00:21 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 13, 2021, 12:29:27 AM
The rest of your sentence is irrelevant. 

People like you need to stop trying to crowdsource the truth.  You cant out-freedom the truth, either. 
You mad Fro?  Again? 😂

you dont care much for facts huh?

Your an odd one. 

Your a hot dog, that identifies as a taco. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 13, 2021, 07:29:33 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on August 13, 2021, 01:49:51 AM
There is something to be said about Darwinism. Humans modified the equation a bit from survival of the strongest to survival of the smartest.
It's not so much longevity that counts, but reproduction.

If my notion is correct, France should be peaking now and about to turn down.  The data are equivocal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 13, 2021, 08:47:37 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 11, 2021, 07:28:26 PM
It has nothing to do with the constitution.  Please stop trying to mic-drop and actually defend your reasoning here.  You, HB, and longhorn never seem to have any actual backing to what you say, just "you're outnumbered here, a-hole!"
.
The governor of FL is forbidding local leadership groups from making decisions based on what's prudent for them.  You know, PRECISELY what you were FOR back when this thing first started spreading everywhere.  You've completely reversed your position just because the FL governor is a far-right fella who confirms all of your biases. 
.
Is there anything in the constitution about flip-floppers? 
I've reversed quite a lot of my positions on this. My reversals are based on facts available to me.

This time last year, I was fully mask compliant - as were the Florida Governor and POTUS. The messaging was that masks help. Now it is clear that they don't, unless you have a properly fitted N95 mask.

So, if this were really about keeping people "safe", wouldn't the government officials mandate properly fitted N95 masks for all?

As for local leaders making decisions based on what's prudent for them, I call bullshit. This is about nothing more than control. Sorry. Kids aren't spreaders. Masks don't work. The facts are out there, which I know is inconvenient.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 13, 2021, 08:50:30 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 13, 2021, 12:06:12 AM
yes but a very low number certainly low enough that older adults should still get vaccinated
I think at all older adults should be vaccinated, except for very rare instances.  not sure what those would be

and if I was a school board, I would require all teachers and staff over 40 years old to be vaccinated to enter the school
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on August 13, 2021, 10:10:13 AM
the way I look at it is that this virus is nowhere near as deadly as it was initially made out to be. This is just fact. Even before we had any vaccines the actual mortality rate for relatively healthy people ages 0-55 was basically 0%. This was a virus that for the most part was killing the elderly (about half of all deaths were people in nursing homes), the obese (CDC reported 80% of hospitalizations were obese people), and the immunocompromised.

Yes, it's a bad virus, but it's not as dangerous as it's been made out to be, not even close. The vaccines are great, they are effective, safe, and they work- and the vaccines are readily available to everybody who wants one. If people want them- great. If they don't- well that's on them. If you're so deathly afraid of COVID- go get the vaccine- it'll protect you and you won't have to worry about it.

The governor of Florida is politicizing this crap- but he is just responding to the school boards in his state that are- wait for it....politicizing this crap.

Whatever happened to trust the science? Study after study has shown that children basically are 99.999999% not affected by COVID at all- even in the extremely rare instances they contract COVID they are asymptomatic like 99.999999% of the time, and oh yeah- the same studies show that children are not spreaders of the virus.

The vaccines are readily available and they work. Every adult that works at the school can take the jab or wear a mask. Putting a mask on the kids goes completely against the science. It's just politicizing this shit and all it does is give stupid people the illusion of safety.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 13, 2021, 10:15:12 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 13, 2021, 08:50:30 AM
I think at all older adults should be vaccinated, except for very rare instances.  not sure what those would be

and if I was a school board, I would require all teachers and staff over 40 years old to be vaccinated to enter the school
If I was your advisor Id tell you youre treading very close to an age discrimination lawsuit

Better to just require all teachers to be vaccinated
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 13, 2021, 10:22:53 AM
fine

don't use common sense
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 13, 2021, 10:46:28 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 13, 2021, 10:22:53 AM
fine

don't use common sense
why start now
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 13, 2021, 03:54:19 PM
Sad story about a pregnant woman who barely had time to hold her baby after it was born before being rushed to the ICU, and then not long after, dying from COVID:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/florida-covid-mom-dies-birth-baby/

Now, even though that's a real story, obviously one case is anecdotal. So I post it primarily to cite this portion:

(https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-pregnant-people-cdc-guidelines/)
Quote
Pregnant people (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-pregnant-people-cdc-guidelines/) are at a higher risk (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/special-populations/pregnancy-data-on-covid-19/what-cdc-is-doing.html) of having a severe illness from COVID-19, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and are more likely to have a pre-term birth or other adverse pregnancy outcomes. 
Dr. Lori Boardman, the chief quality officer at Orlando Health's Winnie Palmer Hospital for Women and Babies, told WKMG that her hospital is seeing more pregnant patients with severe cases of COVID-19 as the Delta variant surges (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/florida-covid-brevard-county-use-911-sparingly-hospitalizations/) through the state. 
"They definitely have pneumonia and are requiring oxygen," she said. "If the baby doesn't look good because sometimes the heart rates will slow, we're having to deliver babies before they're supposed to be born."
On Wednesday, less than a week after McMullen's death, the CDC strengthened its guidance to recommend all pregnant people get vaccinated (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-pregnant-people-cdc-guidelines/) against the virus. The agency cited new safety data, saying that "scientists did not find an increased risk for miscarriage" among women who received the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-vaccine-faq/).

Again I still haven't done enough research to say either way what my position is on whether pregnant women should get the vaccine; I haven't had to do so as it's not relevant to me or my peer group.


But I hope that any who do are not discounting that COVID is pretty serious and can be serious to themselves or their child, and ONLY thinking about the negative risk of the vaccine [which so far appears to not be meaningful].
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 13, 2021, 04:01:37 PM
Dr. Scott Gottlieb expects coronavirus to be an 'endemic' virus in U.S. after delta surge (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/13/dr-scott-gottlieb-expects-coronavirus-to-be-an-endemic-virus-in-us-after-delta-surge.html)

He expects a wave in the north as the south abates, interestingly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 13, 2021, 04:36:35 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 13, 2021, 08:50:30 AM
I think at all older adults should be vaccinated, except for very rare instances.  not sure what those would be

and if I was a school board, I would require all teachers and staff over 40 years old to be vaccinated to enter the school
What if your handicap is over 40 😜
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 13, 2021, 04:54:24 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on August 13, 2021, 04:36:35 PM
What if your handicap is over 40 😜
I took almost as many strokes on the course yesterday as dollars I spent to play it...

...and it was an expensive SoCal course because my wife's stepdad was in town and I didn't want to subject him to the goat tracks I usually play.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 13, 2021, 06:00:30 PM
It's an individual decision...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 13, 2021, 07:09:40 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 13, 2021, 08:47:37 AM
I've reversed quite a lot of my positions on this. My reversals are based on facts available to me.

This time last year, I was fully mask compliant - as were the Florida Governor and POTUS. The messaging was that masks help. Now it is clear that they don't, unless you have a properly fitted N95 mask.

So, if this were really about keeping people "safe", wouldn't the government officials mandate properly fitted N95 masks for all?

As for local leaders making decisions based on what's prudent for them, I call bullshit. This is about nothing more than control. Sorry. Kids aren't spreaders. Masks don't work. The facts are out there, which I know is inconvenient.
The facts never changed....that's why they're facts.  
So now you're left calling bullshit on the opinion you had before.  
And you see nothing wrong with this?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 13, 2021, 07:15:40 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 13, 2021, 07:09:40 PM
The facts never changed....that's why they're facts. 
So now you're left calling bullshit on the opinion you had before. 
And you see nothing wrong with this?
I think the key words were facts available to me

so yes facts available do indeed change

should he have said information instead of facts maybe but 

any normal person understands what he meant
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 13, 2021, 10:11:56 PM
I deleted all mentions of sides.

Stop it.  All of you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 13, 2021, 10:14:50 PM
he started it ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 14, 2021, 07:58:45 AM
Insults. Great.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 14, 2021, 08:13:19 AM
Spain continues down, UK may have leveled off too high, France seems to have peaked, not headed down yet.

GA still rising but is below winter peak, FL "might" be leveling, I hope, at a higher level than last winter.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 14, 2021, 09:17:19 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 13, 2021, 07:09:40 PM
The facts never changed....that's why they're facts. 
So now you're left calling bullshit on the opinion you had before. 
And you see nothing wrong with this?
The “facts never changed” ?? That’s outrageous even for a person like you who makes up their own facts.

“15 days to flatten the curve!” (15 MONTHS ago)

”Dont trust the vaccine”. ( Presidential Candidate, VP Candidate and Speaker)

“ If you get vaccinated you can put away you mask”  (CDC and MSM)

” If your vaccinated, but won’t wear a mask - you are a schmuck”. ( Self anointed Holywood elite- caught on film a few days later, partying in public not wearing a mask)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 14, 2021, 11:47:46 AM
Yeah the whole "wear a mask even if you're vaccinated" thing is a real sack of bulljive.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 14, 2021, 03:58:41 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 13, 2021, 10:11:56 PM
I deleted all mentions of sides.

Stop it.  All of you.
Don't lie,you want to start in,do it man -it's liberating 🤣
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 15, 2021, 12:26:54 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on August 14, 2021, 03:58:41 PM
Don't lie,you want to start in,do it man -it's liberating 🤣

Heh, I think you all know I have plenty of opinions on stuff.

But overall this thread has been really interesting over the past 1.5 years.  Lots of diverse ideas, lots of thoughtful insights.  Of the several message boards I frequent, all of which have some variations of COVID topics among them, this is the one I've found most interesting and thought-provoking.

There are so many smart people on this board, so many thoughtful people, so many honest and sincere and earnest people.  It's what makes this board special in general, and what makes this particular thread valuable on its own merits.

There are plenty of other threads and other forums to discuss the politics.  But that tends to devolve into mind-numbing banality.  On this forum, and every other.

This thread can be better than that.  HAS been better than that.

Which is why I try to keep it clear of the hate-filled and useless partisan crap.  There's no benefit, there's no point, in allowing that stuff to fester and destroy this thread.

That's my opinion of course.  Ultimately it's up to the site owners/operators to decide. If they want me to cease and desist I will immediately do so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 15, 2021, 01:08:51 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 14, 2021, 09:17:19 AM
The “facts never changed” ?? That’s outrageous even for a person like you who makes up their own facts.

“15 days to flatten the curve!” (15 MONTHS ago)

”Dont trust the vaccine”. ( Presidential Candidate, VP Candidate and Speaker)

“ If you get vaccinated you can put away you mask”  (CDC and MSM)

” If your vaccinated, but won’t wear a mask - you are a schmuck”. ( Self anointed Holywood elite- caught on film a few days later, partying in public not wearing a mask)
I say the facts never changed and in a huff, you post a list of opinions.
Exactly my point.
Thank you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 15, 2021, 01:11:16 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 14, 2021, 08:13:19 AM
Spain continues down, UK may have leveled off too high, France seems to have peaked, not headed down yet.

GA still rising but is below winter peak, FL "might" be leveling, I hope, at a higher level than last winter.


On what planet is FL leveling?  Might?  Might not.  Why even post that?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 15, 2021, 07:36:24 AM
Florida had a few days below the peak, and then a few days following above the previous peak, it's not leveling.  UK is down from peak but still high and not trending down.  Spain is trending down.  India is well down, I don't know why.  The trends are in the "might" category when they show 2-3 down days, and then they can go back up obviously.

I suppose actual "facts" never change if they were facts in the first place, but obviously we have changed our views on this thing quite a bit since early on, which is understandable.  There were some flawed interpretations about how infectious a surface could be early.  That was presented as a fact but wasn't.  We thought a vaccinated person would be unlikely to be a spreader, that also turned out to be wrong, apparently.  We thought the vaccine was pretty effective against Delta and the Israeli numbers suggest it isn't while the UK numbers say it is (it being different versions of the vaccine).

I've seen zero understandings of what happened in India.  One thought is this thing just rages through for a bit and then recedes for reasons not well understood.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 15, 2021, 02:39:17 PM
Forbes
Israel’s Recent Surge Confirms We Need A Multimodal Strategy To Fight Covid-19

William A. Haseltine (https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/)
Contributor

Healthcare (https://www.forbes.com/healthcare)
(https://i.imgur.com/yG1Ko7s.png)

(https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/71x34/https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/61142e7a12aa25f21f068b74/Chart-of-Daily-Covid-19-cases-in-Israel/960x0.jpg?fit=scale)(https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/711x347/https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/61142e7a12aa25f21f068b74/Chart-of-Daily-Covid-19-cases-in-Israel/960x0.jpg?fit=scale)
Daily Covid-19 cases in Israel
JOHN HOPKINS UNIVERSITY
With a surge of Covid-19 infections at the highest levels since February, Israel is now contemplating further lockdowns and the possibility of extending booster vaccine shots to those over 50 years old. This comes after administering booster shots to about 2,000 immunocompromised people weeks ago before extending the shots to all those over 60 on August 1. Cases are occurring in both vaccinated and unvaccinated populations, yet with one of the highest vaccination rates in the world, Israel’s experience confirms that no single modality will control Covid-19 alone, as the virus continues to evolve and mutate. We need a multi-modal strategy to contain Covid-19. 
A July report (https://www.gov.il/BlobFolder/reports/vaccine-efficacy-safety-follow-up-committee/he/files_publications_corona_two-dose-vaccination-data.pdf) from the Israel Ministry of Health found that Pfizer (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/PFE)/BioNTech (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/22UA-DE)’s Covid-19 vaccine is just 39% effective in Israel, where the Delta variant is the dominant strain but still provides strong protection against severe illness and hospitalization. According to the report, the vaccines still work very well in preventing severe cases, demonstrating 88% effectiveness against hospitalization and 91% effectiveness against severe illness. But this is still is a steep decline from the earlier estimate of 64%  (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-sees-drop-pfizer-covid-vaccine-protection-still-strong-severe-n1273101)efficacy rate released on July 5, and steeper still from the initial 95% efficacy rate Israel published in May, based on records from Jan. 24 to April 3, 2021.
The Israel report contrasts with data from the UK government (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-b-1-617-2-variant-after-2-doses) that shows the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine was 88% effective against symptomatic disease from the Delta variant two weeks after the second dose, compared to 93% effectiveness against the Alpha Variant during the period from 5 April to 16 May.
Interpreting vaccine efficacy data is a complex task that requires considering many nuances such as the size of the study’s population, the dates and length of observation, multiple types of vaccines in circulation, and many other variables. But one thing is clear, there is a distinct waning in the effectiveness of the immunity and protection that the vaccine provides over time.     
         
As one of the quickest countries to roll out the vaccine, Israel acts as the canary in the coal mine for us all, especially in the United States, where we have few other modes of public health protections. As weary as many of us are about Covid protocols and interventions, we must not remain complacent, as this virus is far from running out of tricks.
Israel once had a robust contract tracing system that kept the virus under control even before the vaccines were available. In late May, spurred on by false confidence from low daily cases rates and the swift vaccine rollout, Defense Minister Benny Gantz and military chief Aviv Kochavi closed the army’s contact-tracing center (https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israeli-military-shuns-critics-says-covid-19-contacts-have-doubled-in-last-60-days-1.9367724), known as Alon, transferring the responsibility to the Health Ministry and slashing staff. At the height of its operations, Alon had around 3,000 contact tracers capable of carrying out 6,000 epidemiological investigations a day. With 10,000 new cases reported in Israel over the last few days, contract tracers were only able to conduct epidemiological investigations on 40 percent of cases (https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/as-serious-cases-swell-israel-s-covid-contact-tracing-falls-behind-1.10099857).
There has been a strong focus recently by Israel and many other countries on booster shots as a solution to waning vaccine immunity. But we cannot make the mistake of relying on one modality, vaccines are a critical tool in our fight against Covid-19, but they must be paired with other layers of protection. To fill any gaps in vaccine protection, we can create a second layer of defense with the prophylactic use of antiviral drugs.
The US government recently committed $3.2 billion to develop antiviral pills for Covid-19. While this is a valuable contribution, we urgently need to supercharge the development of antiviral drugs with the same priority we did for vaccines. Many have focused on antiviral drugs purely as a treatment for Covid-19, when their real power is in their prophylactic use, preventing people exposed to the virus from ever becoming ill or passing on an infection. Similar to how Xofluza, an antiviral used for Influenza reduces transmission by 80% in a close-quarter family context. With a good safety profile, antiviral drugs could be taken by anyone exposed to Covid-19 in a congregate living situation. By attacking the virus before it has a chance to replicate we have the opportunity to prevent the spread of infections and mutation of future variants. Of course, for this prophylactic use of antivirals to be successful it needs to be combined with a mass rapid antigen testing and robust contract tracing program to quickly determine exposure. 
As the virus continues to evolve so must our defense strategy. A multimodal strategy that utilizes antiviral drugs ensures that we can protect our current population and rebuild a world that is prepared for future Covid and other disease outbreaks.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 15, 2021, 06:02:56 PM
I have a fear we can't stay ahead of this thing.  It may or will become "endemic", a cost of "doing business" as it were.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 15, 2021, 06:11:41 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 15, 2021, 06:02:56 PM
I have a fear we can't stay ahead of this thing.  It may or will become "endemic", a cost of "doing business" as it were.
Lots of gloom and doom there CD

This thing will spike in the next few weeks deaths remain low 

we just have to keep vaccinating 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 15, 2021, 06:16:00 PM
Yeah, hopefully deaths and hospitalizations will stay manageable, but it's one more thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 15, 2021, 06:18:53 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 15, 2021, 06:16:00 PM
Yeah, hopefully deaths and hospitalizations will stay manageable, but it's one more thing.
well like my daddy told me at an early age

son life's not fair so you better get used to it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 15, 2021, 07:53:04 PM

Quote
Israel once had a robust contract tracing system that kept the virus under control even before the vaccines were available. In late May, spurred on by false confidence from low daily cases rates and the swift vaccine rollout, Defense Minister Benny Gantz and military chief Aviv Kochavi closed the army’s contact-tracing center (https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israeli-military-shuns-critics-says-covid-19-contacts-have-doubled-in-last-60-days-1.9367724), known as Alon, transferring the responsibility to the Health Ministry and slashing staff. At the height of its operations, Alon had around 3,000 contact tracers capable of carrying out 6,000 epidemiological investigations a day. With 10,000 new cases reported in Israel over the last few days, contract tracers were only able to conduct epidemiological investigations on 40 percent of cases (https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/as-serious-cases-swell-israel-s-covid-contact-tracing-falls-behind-1.10099857).
Analogous to this is the state legislatures and/or governors who have issued edicts that make it impractical to perform contact tracing.  Oklahoma schools are not allowed to ask students if they are vaccinated or not (along with not being able to mandate either masking or vaccinations).  Without that information, you have to quarantine everyone who was in a class in which a student comes down with COVID, contact, not just the unvaccinated.  And we can't know if the student who got sick was vaccinated or not either.


There are also privacy laws that make it very difficult to allow sick kids at home to "attend" class via Zoom or Google Meets.  The students who are in the class must not appear on the video, nor may their voices be heard.  So you can't really conduct a class worth the time of the "remote" student trying to tune into it.

For some reason, it's OK for all the kids to be visible/audible to each other on a Google Meet.  When I asked why that was, the answer was, "Don't ask us--we don't understand it either."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 15, 2021, 08:10:28 PM
Thats really wild CW

but fortunately Oklahoma appears to be holding in there as far as Covid ICU usage and deaths are concerned


Lets just hope this current surge goes away in the 3 or 4 more weeks to come
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 15, 2021, 08:15:45 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 15, 2021, 08:10:28 PM
Thats really wild CW

but fortunately Oklahoma appears to be holding in there as far as Covid ICU usage and deaths are concerned


Lets just hope this current surge goes away in the 3 or 4 more weeks to come
Last I heard, we had the 5th-highest admission rate in the country.
And our governor keeps touting his success.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 15, 2021, 08:46:04 PM
The numbers from the attached article show the following for Oklahoma

Total beds = 9,800

Bed occupied by Covid patients = 7% or about 700

Total ICU beds = 1,000

ICU occupied by Covid patients = 209

I think what is happening as utee pointed out is that many hospitalized procedures are not being delayed as they were in the previous Covid spikes
This is causing fewer beds being available then prior spikes

If you look at the Covid numbers alone they are way under previous peak requirements over the last 18 months

https://www.oklahoman.com/story/news/2021/07/28/oklahoma-health-leaders-warn-covid-case-hospitalization-numbers/5387171001/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 15, 2021, 08:56:19 PM
hopefully the Delta variant runs it's course soon and is on to another variant that is much weaker, and then to another variant that is weaker yet and so on until this is not a subject
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 15, 2021, 09:07:07 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 15, 2021, 08:56:19 PM
hopefully the Delta variant runs it's course soon and is on to another variant that is much weaker, and then to another variant that is weaker yet and so on until this is not a subject
thats the spirit
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 15, 2021, 09:42:03 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 15, 2021, 08:46:04 PM
The numbers from the attached article show the following for Oklahoma

Total beds = 9,800

Bed occupied by Covid patients = 7% or about 700

Total ICU beds = 1,000

ICU occupied by Covid patients = 209

I think what is happening as utee pointed out is that many hospitalized procedures are not being delayed as they were in the previous Covid spikes
This is causing fewer beds being available then prior spikes

If you look at the Covid numbers alone they are way under previous peak requirements over the last 18 months

https://www.oklahoman.com/story/news/2021/07/28/oklahoma-health-leaders-warn-covid-case-hospitalization-numbers/5387171001/
The date on that article is 28 July.  Based on it, you see some optimism.  That's not the way I read it.  And the situation has gotten significantly worse since them.

Our governor and the state legislature have made it virtually impossible for local governments to respond to the situation unless he declares a state of emergency, which he has said he will not do unless things get much worse.

I'd call our governor a moron, but that would be an insult to perfectly good morons.

I thought that of him prior to the pandemic, but he has dived well below my lowest expectations since the pandemic hit.

BTW, I've seen several stories making the point that surprising numbers of under-12 kids getting the virus.  I'll try to post the next one I see.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 15, 2021, 10:09:39 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 15, 2021, 09:42:03 PM
The date on that article is 28 July.  Based on it, you see some optimism.  That's not the way I read it.  And the situation has gotten significantly worse since them.

Our governor and the state legislature have made it virtually impossible for local governments to respond to the situation unless he declares a state of emergency, which he has said he will not do unless things get much worse.

I'd call our governor a moron, but that would be an insult to perfectly good morons.

I thought that of him prior to the pandemic, but he has dived well below my lowest expectations since the pandemic hit.

BTW, I've seen several stories making the point that surprising numbers of under-12 kids getting the virus.  I'll try to post the next one I see.
sorry about the date my bad

I did find that as of Aug 13 there was about 1,300 covid hospital patients and of those 52 were considered pediatric

so at least if children are getting it a low number are being hospitalized

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 15, 2021, 10:42:59 PM
No sweat about the date!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on August 15, 2021, 10:58:48 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 15, 2021, 08:56:19 PM
hopefully the Delta variant runs it's course soon and is on to another variant that is much weaker, and then to another variant that is weaker yet and so on until this is not a subject
And let's hope long covid is pretend.

A co-worker whose husband works at our children's hospital, said he's put more children on ventilators in the past two weeks than he has in the past year
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 16, 2021, 12:11:16 AM
Quote from: ELA on August 15, 2021, 10:58:48 PM
And let's hope long covid is pretend.

A co-worker whose husband works at our children's hospital, said he's put more children on ventilators in the past two weeks than he has in the past year
There's another really nasty virus going around right now, RSV.  In Austin only half the children in the hospital were there with COVID, the other half were RSV, and RSV is putting kids (and adults) on ventilators.

Many of us speculated a year ago, that once people were back to intermingling regularly again, after a year or more of non-interaction, a lot of the "normal" illnesses would come back with a vengeance.

That appears to be happening right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 16, 2021, 12:33:21 AM
My son finally got his 2nd Pfizer shot

but his company is giving him the choice of working from home so he only goes to the office 1 or 2 times a week

anyway he had no bad reaction at all
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 16, 2021, 07:52:20 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/09/covid-heres-what-you-need-to-know-the-lambda-variant.html

The next variant is still minor presence in the US, but gaining traction in other parts of the world/ especially South America. 

Not enough to data yet to know how dangerous it is but early signs are not positive as it may be more contagious and not greatly effected by the existing vaccines.  

Some theorize- including some here- that this will be a many year continuation of new variants, masks and social distancing. 

I have no idea if true- but this new data surely points in that direction. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 16, 2021, 08:38:06 AM
I believe it will be many years of mutating variants, and boosters.

I don't believe it will be many years of masking and social distancing.  Eventually people will simply reject that and go back to living their lives.  As we've discussed here, that's already happening to varying degrees, around the world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 16, 2021, 08:38:47 AM
Here's another oddity, Sweden has not experiened this recent surge at all.  India is way down.  I can't explain either.  Spain is clearly dropping now, the UK dropped some and then went flat, France APPEARS to have peaked, but that is early.

Florida is still going up apparently, so is GA.

I'm not picking up a lot of news about it locally, no warnings about hospitals, yet.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 16, 2021, 08:56:20 AM

Much of what we know about long Covid in fully vaccinated people comes from a single study of antibody levels in Israeli health care workers (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/APCgrF5n9L5ralbP94GKRw~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRi_L9YP0TIaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubmVqbS5vcmcvZG9pL2Z1bGwvMTAuMTA1Ni9ORUpNb2EyMTA5MDcyP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMTA4MTYmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MzgwMjQmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xNTMzNjg5MTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD02NjM1NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9OGU1ZDJhMmI1ZTQ4YTY5NjU2MTkyY2MzYWYwYTkwMGNXA255dEIKYRVYOhphUFT6xFIRamNkb29tOUBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) who had breakthrough infections. Among 36 health workers with breakthrough infections, seven (19 percent) had lingering symptoms after six weeks, including loss of smell, cough, fatigue or trouble breathing.


But even the study’s own authors say the study wasn’t designed to assess the risk of long Covid. “It was not the scope of this paper,” said Dr. Gili Regev-Yochay, the study’s senior author and the director of the infection prevention and control unit at Sheba Medical Center in Israel.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 16, 2021, 12:13:29 PM
Frost said everything is being done to educate players on the vaccination process.

"We had some resistance to it, and Mark Mayer, our trainer, has done a really good job. We had four people come in and talk to the team the first four days. We provided opportunities for the guys that weren't vaccinated to get vaccinated, and I feel really good about where we are numbers-wise and we'll keep working on it."


Frost didn't give any specific numbers about the rate within the team.

Asked if he thought it was an advantage to have a high vaccination rate, he said, "The advantage is going to be based on the rules that they put around it but I don't think there's any question, like I've said multiple times, to have an uninterrupted season as a player and a team to have a high vaccination rate."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 16, 2021, 12:22:12 PM
If football teams aren't making the vaccinations mandatory, then they're making a mistake.

And yes I know they can't really say that it's mandatory.  They also can't really say that the "voluntary" summer practices in June and July are mandatory, but we all know how that works.

Bottom line-- if your football team isn't 100% vaxed you're putting yourself at a competitive disadvantage.  I bet the NC-State baseball team wishes it had insisted on "voluntary" vaccinations for the entire team back in April/May...

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 16, 2021, 12:32:28 PM
yup, especially the top 40 or so players.  Anyone expected to see the field

a sit down with the player and position coach in the head coach's office with the parents on the phone

Git'R done!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on August 16, 2021, 03:55:18 PM
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1276884

Tx Supreme Court strikes down mask mandate in Bexar (San Antonio ) and Dallas counties. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 16, 2021, 09:13:12 PM
When it comes to this, yes, it's a lack-of-smarts thing.  The freedom of stupidity.  Forbidding intelligence.  Brilliant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 16, 2021, 11:08:56 PM
And it begins.  Small-town Hulbert, OK, has had to shut down its high school and middle school after one week three days.  I guarantee that there is an extremely low vaccination rate there.  And they're not masking.  And they're not social-distancing.  And they damn sure want their school open.

But never fear!  The football team is still practicing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 16, 2021, 11:20:15 PM
Quote from: Gigem on August 16, 2021, 03:55:18 PM
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1276884

Tx Supreme Court strikes down mask mandate in Bexar (San Antonio ) and Dallas counties.
Interesting legal wrangling there. Also, technically not struck down, just blocked. 

Though it reads like there isn't much legal ground for the locals to prevent a larger bureaucracy from dictating the terms there.  I'll be interested to see how things shake out on the business side of things. Governor seems to be using the full extent of his power to tell them how to operate. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 16, 2021, 11:27:06 PM
The exact opposite of a year ago.  
The hypocrisy is infinite.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on August 17, 2021, 12:54:54 AM
Today I learned of the 11th and 12th person I know that died from COVID. One was a late 60’s early 70’s man and one was an early 40’s woman.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 17, 2021, 07:40:09 AM
Quote from: Gigem on August 17, 2021, 12:54:54 AM
Today I learned of the 11th and 12th person I know that died from COVID. One was a late 60’s early 70’s man and one was an early 40’s woman. 
So sorry to hear that Gigem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 17, 2021, 07:49:05 AM
Indeed, sorry to hear that Gigem.  Stay safe.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 17, 2021, 08:40:04 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 16, 2021, 11:27:06 PM
The exact opposite of a year ago. 
The hypocrisy is infinite.
perhaps after a year of data and experience, something has changed or was learned?

perhaps
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Geolion91 on August 17, 2021, 08:48:32 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 16, 2021, 12:32:28 PM
yup, especially the top 40 or so players.  Anyone expected to see the field

a sit down with the player and position coach in the head coach's office with the parents on the phone

Git'R done!
College players are adults.  There is no need to include parents, although I imagine some would be pissed if the coach did that without them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2021, 08:49:47 AM
Spain peaked around Jul 21.  I've estimated we're a month behind, it might be 5-6 weeks.  Of concern is that the UK is off their peak but no longer declining.

France may have peaked around Aug 11.  Maybe.  India peaked around May 5.    Sweden has not seen a third wave.  Yet.  There is a premise Delta moves south to north, I don't know on what that is based.

Florida is too early to read but at least the last few days have been better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 17, 2021, 08:54:17 AM
Quote from: Geolion91 on August 17, 2021, 08:48:32 AM
College players are adults.  There is no need to include parents, although I imagine some would be pissed if the coach did that without them.
Yeah, that's why Fearless wisely advised including them.

College coaches know they have to keep momma happy.  That's a tale as old as time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2021, 09:36:06 AM
As Delta Surges, Covid-19 Breakthrough Cases Remain Uncommon - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-delta-surges-covid-19-breakthrough-cases-remain-uncommon-11629199800?mod=djem10point)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 17, 2021, 09:56:00 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2021, 09:36:06 AM
As Delta Surges, Covid-19 Breakthrough Cases Remain Uncommon - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-delta-surges-covid-19-breakthrough-cases-remain-uncommon-11629199800?mod=djem10point)

Just imagine how bad things would have been a year ago, before anyone in the USA was vaccinated, if Delta had been the primary strain.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2021, 10:01:50 AM
For sure. So much has changed from a year (+) ago it makes the head spin.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 17, 2021, 10:08:00 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2021, 10:01:50 AM
For sure. So much has changed from a year (+) ago it makes the head spin.
Really?  Why -I’ve been informed on here that nothing has changed.  😂😂😂😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2021, 10:43:50 AM
The intial thought it was spread by skin contact was scary.  I think it happens only if someone sneezes on your hand, or a surface your hand touches just after.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on August 17, 2021, 11:00:58 AM
Quote from: utee94 on August 16, 2021, 08:38:06 AM
I believe it will be many years of mutating variants, and boosters.

I don't believe it will be many years of masking and social distancing.  Eventually people will simply reject that and go back to living their lives.  As we've discussed here, that's already happening to varying degrees, around the world.


As far as it’s playing out here in the U.S. there seems to be an unspoken agreement between the feds and the people that, because we’re not sure how long this we’ll go, if the people put the masks back on and get the vaccine, in turn, schools won’t be shutdown, bars/theaters/stadiums won’t be required to limit capacity, and feel free to travel.

In other words, for better or worse, those that be are emphasizing masks and vaccination as a way to avoid shutting down the economy again.

Here out West plenty of masks are back on while the baseball stadiums are hosting near sellout crowd sizes, the bars downtown and beaches are packed, and tourists are landing by the plane load.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2021, 11:08:07 AM
I don't think folks would stand for any more full shut downs, or even partial ones.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 17, 2021, 11:13:43 AM
The local Kroger has a sign that says:

We are pleased to offer the third dose of Pfizer or Moderna to people with weakened immune systems

This is news to me

what gives 

anybody know

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2021, 11:14:57 AM
That was announced a few days back.  They are about to extend it to more folks who had the vaccine 6? months ago.

I think it's clear we're in for another round.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 17, 2021, 11:16:40 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 17, 2021, 11:14:57 AM
That was announced a few days back.  They are about to extend it to more folks who had the vaccine 6? months ago.

I think it's clear we're in for another round.
8 months from second shot for normal folks, something less than that for immune-compromised.

That would put me in for a booster in January.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 17, 2021, 11:18:12 AM
is the third shot the exact same stuff as the 1 and 2?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2021, 11:18:43 AM
Yes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 17, 2021, 11:20:51 AM
this is complete news to me

I knew they were working on a booster but not that they will start just giving 3rd shots of the current stuff
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2021, 11:35:48 AM
CDC Recommends 3rd Vaccine Dose For Immunocompromised People : Shots - Health News : NPR (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/08/13/1027461542/cdc-panel-recommends-3rd-covid-vaccine-dose-for-immunocompromised-people)

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is officially recommending that people with weakened immune systems get a third shot of either the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccine.
It comes hours after a unanimous vote by a panel of advisers Friday to recommend the guidance and less than 24 hours after the Food and Drug Administration (https://www.npr.org/2021/08/13/1027296490/fda-authorizes-third-covid-dose-immunocompromised) authorized such use.
Providers generally wait for a CDC recommendation on vaccine use, even if the FDA has approved or authorized a vaccine.
Immunocompromised people make up about 2.7% of U.S. adults, or around 7 million people. They are more likely to get severely ill from COVID-19, and they are at higher risk for prolonged coronavirus infection and transmission. They also have a lower antibody response to the initial vaccine regimen and are more likely to transmit the virus to household contacts, according to studies that CDC officials presented to the advisory committee.
People with conditions that weaken the immune system or who are taking treatments that suppress immunity are also far more likely to have breakthrough infection than people in more normal health. One U.S. study shows 40% to 44% of hospitalized breakthrough cases are in immunocompromised people.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 17, 2021, 12:29:43 PM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on August 17, 2021, 11:00:58 AM
As far as it’s playing out here in the U.S. there seems to be an unspoken agreement between the feds and the people that, because we’re not sure how long this we’ll go, if the people put the masks back on and get the vaccine, in turn, schools won’t be shutdown, bars/theaters/stadiums won’t be required to limit capacity, and feel free to travel.
I dunno, I'm seeing it a bit differently. 


Group 2 and 3 combined are much larger than group 1, even in places like California. 


Group 2 and 3 don't necessarily like each other--group 3 pisses me off because they're the ones continuing to ruin it for everyone. But we have alignment on the point that we don't really think any more shutdowns make sense... Group 2 because we're already vaccinated and nearly everyone in the country at least has access to the vaccine, and Group 3 because they never supported the shutdown in the first place.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 17, 2021, 01:20:57 PM
Not sure that’s all inclusive. 

I would be Group 2.5.   Have the vaccine and I am willing to make decisions about wearing a mask in individual situation.   If the grocery store I prefer requires masks I will make a decision and likely wear one.
If a restaurant I like requires masks I may or may not decide to do it but I love having the choice.  The lady who cuts all three of my hairs😂 May require me to wear a mask and I would likely do it just to receive the service at my preferred vendor.  

It’s not that I think the masks are doing much good, unless they are properly fitted and 95 masks but if it makes somebody feel better, and I have a choice I may or may not choose to. 

Then there’s Group 3.5.   They are not necessarily against the vaccine but for a variety of reasons have chosen to put it off. They are more than willing to wear a mask. We see lots of those folks in Florida where they were openly admit they have not been vaccinated but will wear a mask in public.   

I think the greatest false narrative is that if you don’t have a vaccination that you are a “anti-VAXxer” 
And therefore are spreading false information, and are misinformed.

There are so many people that are very well educated, very well informed and have made the decision based on all of the actual data, to not get the vaccine. They don’t openly encourage others to think that way nor do they bitch about having to wear a mask.   

They have made their choice. Because they have a choice.  There are many in your group one that would choose to take away their choice.    You know, those who want to impose their will on others.  It only runs one way counter to some of the bullshit you see on this forum.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 17, 2021, 01:57:53 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 17, 2021, 08:54:17 AM
Yeah, that's why Fearless wisely advised including them.

College coaches know they have to keep momma happy.  That's a tale as old as time.
Ed Zachery, get momma on your side and get the kid vaccinated
use whatever means possible
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 17, 2021, 02:04:12 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 17, 2021, 01:20:57 PM
There are so many people that are very well educated, very well informed and have made the decision based on all of the actual data, to not get the vaccine. They don’t openly encourage others to think that way nor do they bitch about having to wear a mask. 

I'd like to know where they're getting their education and information to make this decision

I've seen or heard nothing that suggests the vaccine is dangerous or isn't effective.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 17, 2021, 02:36:06 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 17, 2021, 01:20:57 PM
Not sure that’s all inclusive.

I would be Group 2.5.  Have the vaccine and I am willing to make decisions about wearing a mask in individual situation.  If the grocery store I prefer requires masks I will make a decision and likely wear one.
If a restaurant I like requires masks I may or may not decide to do it but I love having the choice.  The lady who cuts all three of my hairs😂 May require me to wear a mask and I would likely do it just to receive the service at my preferred vendor. 

It’s not that I think the masks are doing much good, unless they are properly fitted and 95 masks but if it makes somebody feel better, and I have a choice I may or may not choose to.

Then there’s Group 3.5.  They are not necessarily against the vaccine but for a variety of reasons have chosen to put it off. They are more than willing to wear a mask. We see lots of those folks in Florida where they were openly admit they have not been vaccinated but will wear a mask in public. 

I think the greatest false narrative is that if you don’t have a vaccination that you are a “anti-VAXxer”
And therefore are spreading false information, and are misinformed.

There are so many people that are very well educated, very well informed and have made the decision based on all of the actual data, to not get the vaccine. They don’t openly encourage others to think that way nor do they bitch about having to wear a mask. 

They have made their choice. Because they have a choice.  There are many in your group one that would choose to take away their choice.    You know, those who want to impose their will on others.  It only runs one way counter to some of the bullshit you see on this forum.
Re the "false narrative," if one refuses to get vaccinated despite the near-universal availability of the vaccine, how does that person differ from an anti-vaxxer?

Re free choice, one does not have a constitutional right to refuse vaccination if it is required by law.  That was decided in Jacobson v. Massachusetts, 1905.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 17, 2021, 02:39:45 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 17, 2021, 02:36:06 PM
Re the "false narrative," if one refuses to get vaccinated despite the near-universal availability of the vaccine, how does that person differ from an anti-vaxxer?
They just want to wait longer. Until they can be sure that it's safe. Really, really sure. You know, long term effects and all. 

They'll probably be willing to get it around 2028 or so. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 17, 2021, 02:43:58 PM
long term effects.. like what?

like anything nearly as serious as the known long term effects of COVID?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 17, 2021, 02:48:51 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 17, 2021, 02:43:58 PM
long term effects.. like what?

like anything nearly as serious as the known long term effects of COVID?
Nah, you don't get it.

It's like in The Office where Michael Scott thinks you can get out of anything just by saying "I declare bankruptcy!"

All you have to say is that you're worried about nebulous long term effects that are not defined and you don't sound like an anti-vaxxer, you sound like you're just hesitant. When pressed about the long term effects, you don't have to define them because it hasn't been long-term yet--we don't know what they'll be!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 17, 2021, 02:53:20 PM
I was watching local news this morning and they were interviewing a lady who was not yet vaccinated, and she said although she had no medical reason not to get vaccinated, she just was unsure about getting the vaccine.

She was wearing a mask, and said she was very concerned about the risks associated with the virus, and stated that she thought we should all just wear masks to help slow the spread.

So... I guess there's also that group of people.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 17, 2021, 03:03:01 PM
the masses without logic

it's an overwhelmingly large group
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 17, 2021, 03:03:13 PM
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/p180x540/239456867_6548881231792466_975514976519223918_n.jpg?_nc_cat=100&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=jUjxb0k49QUAX941mQW&tn=DQyWguGePQvwhrSC&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=4e4ef53e367ab695146dc24ac53bf3a8&oe=612081B7)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 17, 2021, 03:04:28 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 17, 2021, 02:36:06 PM
Re the "false narrative," if one refuses to get vaccinated despite the near-universal availability of the vaccine, how does that person differ from an anti-vaxxer?

Re free choice, one does not have a constitutional right to refuse vaccination if it is required by law.  That was decided in Jacobson v. Massachusetts, 1905.
Thank you for proving my point CW. 

anti vaxxers are generally thought to be those idiots that try to downplay or misinform about the vaccine.  The people I am talking about don’t do that. They just decided that they are healthy and will take their chance given the extremely low odds of serious health risks.

your legal comment is off topic.  It is NOT required by law.

Lastly, where is Fro man. He would be sooooo happy that you and bert are agreeing with him.
his premise and others in this thread is clearly one of assumed superiority. 

Either you agree with me “ or you an idiot”.

Look- either you believe people have a right to make that decision or you don’t.  There is not a right answer. But if you assume you have the right to make that decision for them because you are- by definition - smarter- you need to check your ego. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 17, 2021, 03:09:39 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 17, 2021, 02:48:51 PM
Nah, you don't get it.

It's like in The Office where Michael Scott thinks you can get out of anything just by saying "I declare bankruptcy!"

All you have to say is that you're worried about nebulous long term effects that are not defined and you don't sound like an anti-vaxxer, you sound like you're just hesitant. When pressed about the long term effects, you don't have to define them because it hasn't been long-term yet--we don't know what they'll be!
Sarcastic superiority is not befitting of you.  It’s not your thing.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 17, 2021, 03:19:09 PM
I feel people have the right to make the decision

I just wish they were educated and informed before making the decision

I'm not the smartest guy.  I certainly don't think I'm superior to others.

I may feel I'm using superior logic to some.

making a decision based on, just because or because of my political stance, isn't something to be proud of.  IMO
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 17, 2021, 03:22:45 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 17, 2021, 03:19:09 PM
I feel people have the right to make the decision

I just wish they were educated and informed before making the decision

I'm not the smartest guy.  I certainly don't think I'm superior to others.

I may feel I'm using superior logic to some.

making a decision based on, just because or because of my political stance, isn't something to be proud of.  IMO
What about those people who are educated. Extremely well educated and extremely well informed and are deciding not to take the vaccine because they feel they are young and healthy and their odds of having any serious complications are close to nothing. Are they just wrong or have they use the same fax as you and I to come to a different decision?

Why are you assuming that everybody that does not get the vaccination is not educated or misinformed?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 17, 2021, 03:23:55 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 17, 2021, 02:53:20 PM
I was watching local news this morning and they were interviewing a lady who was not yet vaccinated, and she said although she had no medical reason not to get vaccinated, she just was unsure about getting the vaccine.

She was wearing a mask, and said she was very concerned about the risks associated with the virus, and stated that she thought we should all just wear masks to help slow the spread.

So... I guess there's also that group of people.
My thought is that that group would be pretty small.
But maybe not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 17, 2021, 03:43:41 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 17, 2021, 03:04:28 PM
Thank you for proving my point CW. 

anti vaxxers are generally thought to be those idiots that try to downplay or misinform about the vaccine.  The people I am talking about don’t do that. They just decided that they are healthy and will take their chance given the extremely low odds of serious health risks.

your legal comment is off topic.  It is NOT required by law.

Lastly, where is Fro man. He would be sooooo happy that you and bert are agreeing with him.
his premise and others in this thread is clearly one of assumed superiority. 

Either you agree with me “ or you an idiot”.

Look- either you believe people have a right to make that decision or you don’t.  There is not a right answer. But if you assume you have the right to make that decision for them because you are- by definition - smarter- you need to check your ego.
HB:

Why does Covid vaccination not follow the same logic as smallpox vaccinations and polio vaccinations did?  For 99% of the people who refuse to get vaccinated, it's politics.  They're on the side where they demonstrate fealty to their political leader by not getting vaccinated and not wearing masks, while demanding that the economy be fully opened up.

IMO, there are public health considerations that supersede an individual "right" to not be vaccinated.  That's just my opinion about morality of anti-vaxxing.

Legally, I say again, there is no constitutional right not to be vaccinated.  If there's no law mandating vaccination, then obviously, the anti-vaxxer can give the middle finger to everyone else in society and refuse to get vaccinated.  But if/when that law comes down, then anti-vaxxers can't hide behind their "rights."

Re your rhetoric below:

Quote
Look- either you believe people have a right to make that decision or you don’t.  There is not a right answer. But if you assume you have the right to make that decision for them because you are- by definition - smarter- you need to check your ego.
I do not assume that I personally have the right to make anybody's decision for them.  I do believe that the government--which we collectively control through our votes--can abridge certain rights during emergencies, and I suspect that you would to if Covid-19 weren't the issue.  There are many examples of government abridgements of "rights" during emergencies.  Burn bans during droughts.  Curfews during riots.  Quarantines during pandemics.  Speech limitations during wars.  Do you see those as being fundamentally different from the current situation with Covid?  If so, please explain why.

You implicitly expecting that I should never agree with anything OAM says is an example of the politicization of this issue.  He's left-of-center, therefore I am supposed to disagree with everything he posts.  That's wrong.  I don't check to see what you have posted, or what betarho has posted, or what Afro has posted, or what Utee has posted, and trim my argument accordingly.  I just post what I think is right in response to what I think is wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 17, 2021, 04:37:14 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 17, 2021, 03:22:45 PM
What about those people who are educated. Extremely well educated and extremely well informed and are deciding not to take the vaccine because they feel they are young and healthy and their odds of having any serious complications are close to nothing. Are they just wrong or have they use the same fax as you and I to come to a different decision?

Why are you assuming that everybody that does not get the vaccination is not educated or misinformed?
it seems to me that a young healthy person's odds of having serious complications are much closer to nothing if vaccinated

but that just using as much information to educate yourself about the virus and the vaccine

if there is information out there that I'm missing, that shows the opposite,  I'd like to see it 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2021, 04:43:40 PM
There is a significant public health advantage in getting vaccinations widely spread.  It's not that it would mean a disease can't spread at all, but it would significantly limit the spread.  R naught etc.

The reason to get a flu vaccine is only somewhat to prevent you from getting the flu, the odds a flu vaccine keeps you from contracting the flu in a single year are very slight, in part because you don't get the flu in most years anyway.  But these things spread exponentially, it's pretty easy to model how even a somewhat effective vaccine limits spread in the public even if it doesn't help the individual.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 17, 2021, 04:52:55 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 17, 2021, 03:22:45 PM
What about those people who are educated. Extremely well educated and extremely well informed and are deciding not to take the vaccine because they feel they are young and healthy and their odds of having any serious complications are close to nothing. Are they just wrong or have they use the same fax as you and I to come to a different decision?

Why are you assuming that everybody that does not get the vaccination is not educated or misinformed?
I don't think it's that. 

I think it's fear. The reasons that they come up with rationalizations for that fear. 

Again, the issue with the COVID vaccine (and most other vaccines) is that you have to choose to get it, whereas getting a disease is something that happens to you. 

Educated people can still be afraid, and they can sound FAR more eloquent than morons when they rationalize that fear with plausible reasoning. 

That was why I brought up the "long term effects" thing. The great thing about it is that it is non-falsifiable. Someone who cites fear of long-term effects doesn't have to bring any evidence, because their very complaint is that we don't have long-term data so we can't have evidence. You can't convince them otherwise, because there's always a longer term. And by doing this they can avoid the vaccine until it's no longer an issue. 

I've mentioned in this thread the psychological difference between choosing a vaccine and "taking your chances" with the virus. I think all available evidence that we have today says that the vaccine is far safer across basically all age groups. But the evidence isn't strong enough to overcome the psychological hurdle for a lot of people.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 17, 2021, 05:08:26 PM
I should point out that there is a very significant negative connotation to the term "anti-vaxxer", because of the last two decades of kids, autism, measles outbreaks, etc. 

However there is a completely different version of anti-vaxxer that exists. These are people who think that kids should have all these vaccines, but never get any vaccines themselves. Flu vaccine? Nope. 10-year tetanus booster? Nope. COVID vaccine? Nope. 

They're not anti-vaccine, they just will always find a rationalization for why THEY don't need one. They totally support other people getting them though!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 17, 2021, 05:10:56 PM
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/s600x600/172160536_1689814644560788_2507183049977965485_n.jpg?_nc_cat=1&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=4DaTqxtqJtUAX_USkUk&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=56c3c81daf4dbc86fe20dffab01a892f&oe=614315DE)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 17, 2021, 05:22:39 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 17, 2021, 03:43:41 PM
HB:

Why does Covid vaccination not follow the same logic as smallpox vaccinations and polio vaccinations did?  For 99% of the people who refuse to get vaccinated, it's politics.  They're on the side where they demonstrate fealty to their political leader by not getting vaccinated and not wearing masks, while demanding that the economy be fully opened up.

IMO, there are public health considerations that supersede an individual "right" to not be vaccinated.  That's just my opinion about morality of anti-vaxxing.

Legally, I say again, there is no constitutional right not to be vaccinated.  If there's no law mandating vaccination, then obviously, the anti-vaxxer can give the middle finger to everyone else in society and refuse to get vaccinated.  But if/when that law comes down, then anti-vaxxers can't hide behind their "rights."

Re your rhetoric below:
I do not assume that I personally have the right to make anybody's decision for them.  I do believe that the government--which we collectively control through our votes--can abridge certain rights during emergencies, and I suspect that you would to if Covid-19 weren't the issue.  There are many examples of government abridgements of "rights" during emergencies.  Burn bans during droughts.  Curfews during riots.  Quarantines during pandemics.  Speech limitations during wars.  Do you see those as being fundamentally different from the current situation with Covid?  If so, please explain why.

You implicitly expecting that I should never agree with anything OAM says is an example of the politicization of this issue.  He's left-of-center, therefore I am supposed to disagree with everything he posts.  That's wrong.  I don't check to see what you have posted, or what betarho has posted, or what Afro has posted, or what Utee has posted, and trim my argument accordingly.  I just post what I think is right in response to what I think is wrong.
"Why does Covid vaccination not follow the same logic as smallpox vaccinations and polio vaccinations did?"

    You are debating yourself here.  I never said or implied that it shouldn't.  Its a good argument- but I have never weighed in on it- since it is not law as of this moment. If you want to make a conversation that it should be law, I am sure it would be interesting and we could have some good debate.

They're on the side where they demonstrate fealty to their political leader by not getting vaccinated and not wearing masks, while demanding that the economy be fully opened up.   




I am calling bulljive.  simply not backed up by any facts, and in fact the data says otherwise.  And ultimately- this is what I am (respectfully) calling you out on. It has nothing to do with politics-regardless of how hard you try to make it that way.  First of all- there are no leaders I am aware of espousing not to get vaccinated, (there certainly was last year during election season, by one party not in the oval office- so I will concede you that as being political)or to not wear masks.  Secondly- the data says those most likely to not get vaccinated are in 3 distinct categories, the young, Blacks and Hispanics.  Look at the voting data if you do want to make this political-- who won the overwhelming majority of votes in all three categories??

 I could not care less if you agree with OFA. What I am saying is this is the kind of stuff he constantly posts- political leaning false narratives.  And like you- insults those who disagree, by putting them all into one category, which is not even close to reality.

 If you feel it should be law- that's fine. I would have to think that through before I could agree or disagree. But you keep insinuating that the personal choice that everyone (you said 99%) who chooses not to get vaccinated is political- which is simply wrong.  And you are assuming everyone falls into your polarized groups- but wrong again.  I know lots of people who will not be getting vaccinated (not closely I admit, since as of last week everyone of my close circle of friends and family is- I won the last person over) and are wearing masks without complaint. And these are people who do not appear to know or care about politics.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2021, 05:46:36 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 17, 2021, 03:03:13 PM
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/p180x540/239456867_6548881231792466_975514976519223918_n.jpg?_nc_cat=100&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=jUjxb0k49QUAX941mQW&tn=DQyWguGePQvwhrSC&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=4e4ef53e367ab695146dc24ac53bf3a8&oe=612081B7)
I hope this is accurate. Tough to say right now. I'm seeing the curve flatten on the below, but still moving in the wrong direction obviously.


(https://i.imgur.com/xE4J0eM.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 17, 2021, 05:52:53 PM
I pulled it from FB, gotta be accurate
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 17, 2021, 06:07:26 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 17, 2021, 03:22:45 PM
What about those people who are educated. Extremely well educated and extremely well informed and are deciding not to take the vaccine because they feel they are young and healthy and their odds of having any serious complications are close to nothing. Are they just wrong or have they use the same fax as you and I to come to a different decision?
I’d assume the question would probably jump to the possibility that vaccinated people are less likely to carry it and therefore expose others who can’t get the vaccine for some reason of another.

But the more interesting part is this “They feel they are young and healthy and their odds of having any serious complications are close to nothing.” This gets into sort of an odd spot. The chances of vaccine complications are very likely closer to nothing. And people all the time are good at deciding the odds are in their favor in less than ideal situations. (The odds that come thing bad will happen when you drive drunk are actually pretty low, but it’s not a choice we really let people make). 

This isn’t to speak on the policy element, more that the idea that “I think I’ll be fine” is one that is often wrong and boxed in plenty of times when needed. Likewise, people often overstate risks of certain things that likely won’t happen to them. It’s a fascinating bit of psychology. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 17, 2021, 06:34:52 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on August 17, 2021, 06:07:26 PM
I’d assume the question would probably jump to the possibility that vaccinated people are less likely to carry it and therefore expose others who can’t get the vaccine for some reason of another.

But the more interesting part is this “They feel they are young and healthy and their odds of having any serious complications are close to nothing.” This gets into sort of an odd spot. The chances of vaccine complications are very likely closer to nothing. And people all the time are good at deciding the odds are in their favor in less than ideal situations. (The odds that come thing bad will happen when you drive drunk are actually pretty low, but it’s not a choice we really let people make). 

This isn’t to speak on the policy element, more that the idea that “I think I’ll be fine” is one that is often wrong and boxed in plenty of times when needed. Likewise, people often overstate risks of certain things that likely won’t happen to them. It’s a fascinating bit of psychology. 
Amen.  To the extent that you were saying those who choose not to vaccinate are making what I would feel is the wrong decision - I fully agree.

and given the opportunity I always tell them that.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 17, 2021, 07:12:54 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 17, 2021, 05:10:56 PM
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/s600x600/172160536_1689814644560788_2507183049977965485_n.jpg?_nc_cat=1&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=4DaTqxtqJtUAX_USkUk&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=56c3c81daf4dbc86fe20dffab01a892f&oe=614315DE)
Somebody put it this way.  "It's not what we don't know that gets us in trouble.  It's what we think we know that just ain't so."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 17, 2021, 07:41:58 PM
Oh yeah, well...


(https://i.imgur.com/b3l5a53.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 17, 2021, 08:49:03 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 17, 2021, 03:22:45 PM
What about those people who are educated. Extremely well educated and extremely well informed and are deciding not to take the vaccine because they feel they are young and healthy and their odds of having any serious complications are close to nothing. Are they just wrong or have they use the same fax as you and I to come to a different decision?

Why are you assuming that everybody that does not get the vaccination is not educated or misinformed?
That's called being selfish.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 17, 2021, 09:00:05 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 17, 2021, 02:53:20 PM
I was watching local news this morning and they were interviewing a lady who was not yet vaccinated, and she said although she had no medical reason not to get vaccinated, she just was unsure about getting the vaccine.

She was wearing a mask, and said she was very concerned about the risks associated with the virus, and stated that she thought we should all just wear masks to help slow the spread.

So... I guess there's also that group of people.


We call them freeriders.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 17, 2021, 09:06:56 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 17, 2021, 08:49:03 PM
That's called being selfish. 
Can’t disagree.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 17, 2021, 09:15:47 PM
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/p526x296/231041785_4548770428480692_376828987030777633_n.jpg?_nc_cat=104&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=tKHi3pZKgH4AX_umpt7&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=9e2edd0b2342b20ae4fda664a78d056e&oe=61426D8C)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 17, 2021, 09:19:15 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 17, 2021, 09:15:47 PM
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/p526x296/231041785_4548770428480692_376828987030777633_n.jpg?_nc_cat=104&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=tKHi3pZKgH4AX_umpt7&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=9e2edd0b2342b20ae4fda664a78d056e&oe=61426D8C)
🤣😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 17, 2021, 09:56:38 PM
posting again if you missed it - seems reasonable to me

Three things to know about the long-term side effects of COVID vaccines

https://www.uab.edu/news/health/item/12143-three-things-to-know-about-the-long-term-side-effects-of-covid-vaccines?fbclid=IwAR3hqM8e5tUXhUT-e8kb6tji2yNsIE92SpJ2OR4EwQ2QHnHMgrW8kt3yqoM (https://www.uab.edu/news/health/item/12143-three-things-to-know-about-the-long-term-side-effects-of-covid-vaccines?fbclid=IwAR3hqM8e5tUXhUT-e8kb6tji2yNsIE92SpJ2OR4EwQ2QHnHMgrW8kt3yqoM)

Unlike many medications, which are taken daily, vaccines are generally one-and-done. Medicines you take every day can cause side effects that reveal themselves over time, including long-term problems as levels of the drug build up in the body over months and years.

“Vaccines are just designed to deliver a payload and then are quickly eliminated by the body,” Goepfert said. “This is particularly true of the mRNA vaccines. mRNA degrades incredibly rapidly. You wouldn’t expect any of these vaccines to have any long-term side effects. And in fact, this has never occurred with any vaccine.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 17, 2021, 10:28:44 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 17, 2021, 09:56:38 PM
posting again if you missed it - seems reasonable to me

Three things to know about the long-term side effects of COVID vaccines

https://www.uab.edu/news/health/item/12143-three-things-to-know-about-the-long-term-side-effects-of-covid-vaccines?fbclid=IwAR3hqM8e5tUXhUT-e8kb6tji2yNsIE92SpJ2OR4EwQ2QHnHMgrW8kt3yqoM (https://www.uab.edu/news/health/item/12143-three-things-to-know-about-the-long-term-side-effects-of-covid-vaccines?fbclid=IwAR3hqM8e5tUXhUT-e8kb6tji2yNsIE92SpJ2OR4EwQ2QHnHMgrW8kt3yqoM)

Unlike many medications, which are taken daily, vaccines are generally one-and-done. Medicines you take every day can cause side effects that reveal themselves over time, including long-term problems as levels of the drug build up in the body over months and years.

“Vaccines are just designed to deliver a payload and then are quickly eliminated by the body,” Goepfert said. “This is particularly true of the mRNA vaccines. mRNA degrades incredibly rapidly. You wouldn’t expect any of these vaccines to have any long-term side effects. And in fact, this has never occurred with any vaccine.”
Pre-Corona, there was a lively anti-vaxxer movement.  One of the prominent proponents was (and still is, as far as I know) former Playboy centerfold Jenny McCarthy.  She is convinced that her two sons became autistic because of the childhood immunizations they received.  Also that she cured them of their autism by use of a special double-secret diet.
There have been many peer-reviewed studies of a relationship between childhood vaccinations and autism.  They have all found nothing.  Medical researchers are not infallible, but it's as close as humans can get to a dead-solid lock lock that childhood vaccines do not cause autism.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 17, 2021, 10:45:04 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 17, 2021, 09:56:38 PM
posting again if you missed it - seems reasonable to me

Three things to know about the long-term side effects of COVID vaccines

https://www.uab.edu/news/health/item/12143-three-things-to-know-about-the-long-term-side-effects-of-covid-vaccines?fbclid=IwAR3hqM8e5tUXhUT-e8kb6tji2yNsIE92SpJ2OR4EwQ2QHnHMgrW8kt3yqoM (https://www.uab.edu/news/health/item/12143-three-things-to-know-about-the-long-term-side-effects-of-covid-vaccines?fbclid=IwAR3hqM8e5tUXhUT-e8kb6tji2yNsIE92SpJ2OR4EwQ2QHnHMgrW8kt3yqoM)

Unlike many medications, which are taken daily, vaccines are generally one-and-done. Medicines you take every day can cause side effects that reveal themselves over time, including long-term problems as levels of the drug build up in the body over months and years.

“Vaccines are just designed to deliver a payload and then are quickly eliminated by the body,” Goepfert said. “This is particularly true of the mRNA vaccines. mRNA degrades incredibly rapidly. You wouldn’t expect any of these vaccines to have any long-term side effects. And in fact, this has never occurred with any vaccine.”

You post it, it's fine.
I post it, it's hot garbage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 17, 2021, 10:48:46 PM
the pot stirrer has some credibility
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 18, 2021, 08:07:55 AM
Same general trends in Europe, Sweden is showing a small uptick in reporteds.

Too early to call a decline in Florida, but it's possible.  Georgia is bouncing around a lot.  Not much news here about hospital capacity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 18, 2021, 08:49:34 AM
Hospitals are generally doing fine in Florida. There are a couple that are teetering.

I wish everyone would just take the shot and be done.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 18, 2021, 08:57:27 AM
word

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 18, 2021, 09:22:33 AM
if everyone had the shot, it might not be done, but it'd be much better
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on August 18, 2021, 09:39:22 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 17, 2021, 02:43:58 PM
long term effects.. like what?

like anything nearly as serious as the known long term effects of COVID?



The long term effect is that, conversely, the vaccine wears off, roughly at about 8 months(?), as we’re now learning, which is why we’re suddenly seeing the gallery of Fauci/CDC/White House promote boosters, starting for those with “compromised immune systems” and possibly expanding into various mandates we’re already seeing mandated to attend Raiders games or keep your job as a Public Health worker in California.

For those unconvinced to get vaccinated, I can see this brewing subject of boosters yielding further reluctance under the rationale of: “What’s the point of getting vaccinated if boosters will be required every year anyway? Might as well take my chances since I’m already behind the curve.”

As I saw posted by a cynical news commentator yesterday: “With the ‘recommendation’ to get booster shots (soon to be a mandate) there is effectively no such thing as ‘fully vaccinated’ anymore. There’s just vaccinated…for now.”

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 18, 2021, 09:45:54 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on August 18, 2021, 09:39:22 AM


The long term effect is that, conversely, the vaccine wears off, roughly at about 8 months(?), as we’re now learning, which is why we’re suddenly seeing the gallery of Fauci/CDC/White House promote boosters, starting for those with “compromised immune systems” and possibly expanding into various mandates we’re already seeing mandated to attend Raiders games or keep your job as a Public Health worker in California.

For those unconvinced to get vaccinated, I can see this brewing subject of boosters yielding further reluctance under the rationale of: “What’s the point of getting vaccinated if boosters will be required every year anyway? Might as well take my chances since I’m already behind the curve.”

As I saw posted by a cynical news commentator yesterday: “With the ‘recommendation’ to get booster shots (soon to be a mandate) there is effectively no such thing as ‘fully vaccinated’ anymore. There’s just vaccinated…for now.”


nothing rational about that rationale
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 18, 2021, 11:12:00 AM
I don't think there will be any "further reluctance" among the anti-vaxers regarding boosters.  It's the same reluctance as before.  They didn't get the first vaccine, and they're not going to get the boosters.  Not willingly anyway.

Unfortunately I suspect we'll also see diminishing returns from the already-vaxed.  I'd be shocked if we get 100% "return customers" when it's their turn to get the booster.

Personally of course, I got the vax as soon as it was readily available to me, and I'll do the same for any boosters that come along.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 18, 2021, 11:15:54 AM
Looks like we're moving rapidly on to boosters for ALL  being approved/recommended, after 8 months.

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/vaccine/us-health-officials-call-for-booster-shots-against-covid-19/507-dc702492-a5c5-494e-9cf8-1f804468cb26


Quote
CDC: COVID-19 booster shots recommended for all after 8 months

The plan calls for an extra dose eight months after people get their second shot of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine.

WASHINGTON —  U.S. health officials Wednesday recommended all Americans get COVID-19 booster shots to shore up their protection amid the surging delta variant and evidence that the vaccines' effectiveness is falling.

The plan, as outlined by the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (https://www.cdc.gov/) and other top authorities, calls for an extra dose eight months after people get their second shot of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine. The doses could begin the week of Sept. 20.

Health officials said people who received the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine will also probably need extra shots. But they said they are awaiting more data and have yet to work out a plan.

The plan is still awaiting a Food and Drug Administration (https://www.fda.gov/) evaluation of the safety and effectiveness of a third dose, the officials said.
I
n a statement, health officials said it is “very clear” that the vaccines' protection against infection wanes over time, and now, with the highly contagious delta variant spreading rapidly, “we are starting to see evidence of reduced protection against mild and moderate disease.”

“Based on our latest assessment, the current protection against severe disease, hospitalization and death could diminish in the months ahead,” they said.







Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 18, 2021, 12:34:51 PM
as long as the virus is putting a percentage of folks in the hospital, I'll be getting boosters and I would suppose others will
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 18, 2021, 01:13:21 PM
I wonder if this somewhat reflects an over abundance of vaccines now available in the US, something I guessed would happen a few months back.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 18, 2021, 01:23:08 PM
New Zealand's Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has announced a nationwide lockdown after the country confirmed one coronavirus case.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 18, 2021, 01:41:45 PM
Texas Gov. Greg Abbot has tested positive.

Per HuffPo (https://www.huffpost.com/entry/greg-abbott-regeneron_n_611cb156e4b0ff60bf7b14a3), he quickly got the Regeneron antibody treatment.  From the same source, he has told friends that he has had a 3rd shot.

He and the Oklahoma governor are neck-and-neck.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 18, 2021, 01:47:59 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 18, 2021, 01:41:45 PM
Texas Gov. Greg Abbot has tested positive.

Per HuffPo (https://www.huffpost.com/entry/greg-abbott-regeneron_n_611cb156e4b0ff60bf7b14a3), he quickly got the Regeneron antibody treatment.  From the same source, he has told friends that he has had a 3rd shot.

He and the Oklahoma governor are neck-and-neck.
He also said he has no symptoms
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 18, 2021, 01:52:26 PM
Are COVID Hospitalizations High Where You Live? Look Up Your Hospital : Shots - Health News : NPR (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/12/09/944379919/new-data-reveal-which-hospitals-are-dangerously-full-is-yours)

Not a good look, but I had a notion the case numbers were resulting in fewer hospitalizations.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 18, 2021, 01:58:48 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 18, 2021, 01:47:59 PM
He also said he has no symptoms
 No - don’t you know longhorn.   CW is inferring he got it due to his political affiliation. He is abandoning his theory that everyone should get vaccinated.  I guess he figures if you’re not a Democrat then not only should you get vaccinated but you must avoid getting the virus at all costs and if you don’t it’s clearly due to your lack of education and information.

but then he turns around and quotes one of the most liberal rags out there, the Huffington TP. 
 
It’s funny how we’re not supposed to be political in this thread but certain people just can’t help themselves.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 18, 2021, 01:59:52 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 18, 2021, 01:47:59 PM
He also said he has no symptoms
Yes, he did.

So--I wonder--why did he take the Regeneron treatment?
And why did he take the 3rd shot, to which he is not entitled.
"Do as I say, not as I do."
Guys like him, in both parties, illustrate what's wrong with our politics.
And, as I posted earlier, my governor is right there with him.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 18, 2021, 02:00:25 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 18, 2021, 01:58:48 PM
No - don’t you know longhorn.  CW is inferring he got it due to his political affiliation. He is abandoning his theory that everyone should get vaccinated.  I guess he figures if you’re not a Democrat then not only should you get vaccinated but you must avoid getting the virus at all costs and if you don’t it’s clearly due to your lack of education and information.

but then he turns around and quotes one of the most liberal rags out there, the Huffington TP.
 
It’s funny how we’re not supposed to be political in this thread but certain people just can’t help themselves.
Bullshit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 18, 2021, 02:01:52 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 18, 2021, 02:00:25 PM
Bullshit.
You proved my point with your very next post thank you very much.  

why is everything politics for you!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 18, 2021, 02:07:22 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 18, 2021, 02:01:52 PM
You proved my point with your very next post thank you very much. 

why is everything politics for you!
You don't mind politics, HB.  You don't get upset hearing praise for Ron De Santis or scatalogical denunciations of the Michigan governor or praise for the former president.
You just mind politics that are not in line with yours.
Having a dialog with you is like trying to have a dialog with a troll.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 18, 2021, 02:07:29 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 18, 2021, 01:59:52 PM
Yes, he did.

So--I wonder--why did he take the Regeneron treatment?
And why did he take the 3rd shot, to which he is not entitled.
"Do as I say, not as I do."
Guys like him, in both parties, illustrate what's wrong with our politics.
And, as I posted earlier, my governor is right there with him.

I don't know about being "entitled" to a 3rd shot or not, when it's the current CDC and FDA guidance.

As for the Regeneron, this is what the FDA says about it in their authorization for public use:

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-monoclonal-antibodies-treatment-covid-19

Quote
Today, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued an emergency use authorization (EUA) (https://www.fda.gov/media/143891/download) for casirivimab and imdevimab to be administered together for the treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19 in adults and pediatric patients (12 years of age or older weighing at least 40 kilograms [about 88 pounds]) with positive results of direct SARS-CoV-2 viral testing and who are at high risk for progressing to severe COVID-19. This includes those who are 65 years of age or older or who have certain chronic medical conditions.

Abbott is 63, and due to his paralysis is likely to have multiple chronic underlying medical conditions.

The entire purpose of the Regeneron is to prevent mild cases from becoming major ones, so I'm really not following your logic there, at all.  Seems like you're standing up a straw man in an attempt to make a political point.

And if so, please do it on some other thread.  "In other news" is the defacto politics thread around here.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 18, 2021, 02:09:31 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 18, 2021, 01:59:52 PM
Yes, he did.

So--I wonder--why did he take the Regeneron treatment?
And why did he take the 3rd shot, to which he is not entitled.
"Do as I say, not as I do."
Guys like him, in both parties, illustrate what's wrong with our politics.
And, as I posted earlier, my governor is right there with him.
Why would he not take Regeneron if it’s shown to be effective in preventing the development of symptoms?

what did he do that falls under the category of do as I say not as I do? Can you name one thing?

It’s not like he’s Rashid Talib or Cory cook or Kamala Harris or Nancy Pelosi or Obama or Joe Biden or Laurie Lightfoot or Cuomo or Whitmer, those we have been busted multiple times breaking the rules they impose on others    
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Abba on August 18, 2021, 02:11:17 PM
I'm not well versed on Regeneron, but is it available for the general public to use?  What types of red tape would need to be cut through for a normal person to get it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 18, 2021, 02:11:40 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 18, 2021, 02:07:22 PM
You don't mind politics, HB.  You don't get upset hearing praise for Ron De Santis or scatalogical denunciations of the Michigan governor or praise for the former president.
You just mind politics that are not in line with yours.
Having a dialog with you is like trying to have a dialog with a troll.
Completely false. I don’t come into this thread wanting to see politics. There is another thread for that. But certain posters, and you are clearly one of them simply cannot have a conversation about these topics without it being completely political.

To me, that is the real definition of a online troll. I actually have a great deal of respect for you CW but lately your posts have been so political so if you’re going to throw it out there you have to expect counter opinions to be heard.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 18, 2021, 02:15:24 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 18, 2021, 01:59:52 PM
Yes, he did.

So--I wonder--why did he take the Regeneron treatment?
And why did he take the 3rd shot, to which he is not entitled.
"Do as I say, not as I do."
Guys like him, in both parties, illustrate what's wrong with our politics.
And, as I posted earlier, my governor is right there with him.
Not according to his own statement and countless news reports

He has chosen to get the Regeneron treatment out of caution

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 18, 2021, 02:17:44 PM
Quote from: Abba on August 18, 2021, 02:11:17 PM
I'm not well versed on Regeneron, but is it available for the general public to use?  What types of red tape would need to be cut through for a normal person to get it?
Yes. It's been authorized by the FDA for use in treatment of COVID-positive patients to limit the severity of symptoms.  You need a doctor's prescription.

The risk has been low supply, but the docs I talked to about it said that so far none of their prescriptions have been turned down so supply seems to be holding up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 18, 2021, 02:22:23 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 18, 2021, 02:07:29 PM
I don't know about being "entitled" to a 3rd shot or not, when it's the current CDC and FDA guidance.
Can you or I get a 3rd shot without lying about whether we have already been vaccinated?  If we can, that's a happy discovery, because my wife will get vaccinated tomorrow.

I read just today that the 3rd shot will be available on 20 September, perhaps earlier than that for immune-compromised people.

Quote
As for the Regeneron, this is what the FDA says about it in their authorization for public use:

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-monoclonal-antibodies-treatment-covid-19

Abbott is 63, and due to his paralysis is likely to have multiple chronic underlying medical conditions.
I wasn't implying that he was not entitled to use Regeneron or that it was not medically appropriate for him to do so.
But I think that it's hypocritical that while he takes extra precautions for his own health, his EO has made it harder for local governments and other entities to take measures that seem appropriate for them.  In effect, he has downplayed the risk, as opposed to following the guidance of experts in the field.  But when he tests positive, his actions are not those of someone who thinks that Covid is just a minor threat.

There was this tweet from Abbott 2 days ago.

Quote
(https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1106778059590565889/M-ak-U5F_normal.jpg)
 (https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1427442551833956354|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.huffpost.com%2Fentry%2Fgreg-abbott-regeneron_n_611cb156e4b0ff60bf7b14a3)
 (https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1427442551833956354|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.huffpost.com%2Fentry%2Fgreg-abbott-regeneron_n_611cb156e4b0ff60bf7b14a3) (https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1427442551833956354|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.huffpost.com%2Fentry%2Fgreg-abbott-regeneron_n_611cb156e4b0ff60bf7b14a3)Greg Abbott

@GregAbbott_TX
 (https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1427442551833956354|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.huffpost.com%2Fentry%2Fgreg-abbott-regeneron_n_611cb156e4b0ff60bf7b14a3)
 (https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX/status/1427442551833956354?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1427442551833956354|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.huffpost.com%2Fentry%2Fgreg-abbott-regeneron_n_611cb156e4b0ff60bf7b14a3)
Another standing room only event in Collin County tonight.

Thank y’all for the enthusiastic reception.

Let's keep this energy up and send a message that Texas values are NOT up for grabs in 2022.

 (https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX/status/1427442551833956354/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1427442551833956354|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.huffpost.com%2Fentry%2Fgreg-abbott-regeneron_n_611cb156e4b0ff60bf7b14a3)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E89Kc-iX0AARIHt?format=jpg&name=small)
 (https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX/status/1427442551833956354/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1427442551833956354|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.huffpost.com%2Fentry%2Fgreg-abbott-regeneron_n_611cb156e4b0ff60bf7b14a3) (https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX/status/1427442551833956354/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1427442551833956354|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.huffpost.com%2Fentry%2Fgreg-abbott-regeneron_n_611cb156e4b0ff60bf7b14a3)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E89KeZSXIAI_wyq?format=jpg&name=medium)
 (https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX/status/1427442551833956354/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1427442551833956354|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.huffpost.com%2Fentry%2Fgreg-abbott-regeneron_n_611cb156e4b0ff60bf7b14a3)
8:29 PM · Aug 16, 2021 (https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX/status/1427442551833956354?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1427442551833956354|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.huffpost.com%2Fentry%2Fgreg-abbott-regeneron_n_611cb156e4b0ff60bf7b14a3)
 (https://help.twitter.com/en/twitter-for-websites-ads-info-and-privacy)
 (https://twitter.com/intent/like?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1427442551833956354|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.huffpost.com%2Fentry%2Fgreg-abbott-regeneron_n_611cb156e4b0ff60bf7b14a3&tweet_id=1427442551833956354)
 (https://twitter.com/intent/like?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1427442551833956354|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.huffpost.com%2Fentry%2Fgreg-abbott-regeneron_n_611cb156e4b0ff60bf7b14a3&tweet_id=1427442551833956354)4.2K   4.8K

A bunch of mostly old folks there with virtually none of them wearing masks.  A potential super-spreader event in the making.

I'm not singling out Abbott.  As I said, my governor is doing much the same thing.  Maybe worse in some respects.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 18, 2021, 02:31:15 PM
So it's your perception that taking an appropriately prescribed drug that is freely available to the public, belies his policy that local school districts should not be able to mandate masks.

But at the same time, his maskless appearance at a large gathering (while being fully vaccinated not twice but thrice) also runs counter to that stance?

I mean, I don't know what to make of those two opposing observations, but what I do know, is that it appears to be less about policy and more about your opinion regarding the political optics.

So once again, I'd invite you to take it to the other thread.

I'm about to start fumigating this one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 18, 2021, 02:54:42 PM
That's fine.  I will take no insult if you remove the offending post.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 18, 2021, 02:58:17 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 18, 2021, 02:54:42 PM
That's fine.  I will take no insult if you remove the offending post.
Nah i'll leave it up.

Unless someone else stumbles along and replies and decides to take it up a notch. :)

Overall I agree with your basic opinions on the policy, and I'll leave it at that.

If folks want to debate policy, and the resulting effects, that's a positive thing IMO.  I just don't see the need to bring in any of their assumptions regarding the political motivations behind the policies.  That's where we always get into trouble.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 18, 2021, 03:59:07 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 18, 2021, 02:58:17 PM
Nah i'll leave it up.

Unless someone else stumbles along and replies and decides to take it up a notch. :)

Overall I agree with your basic opinions on the policy, and I'll leave it at that.

If folks want to debate policy, and the resulting effects, that's a positive thing IMO.  I just don't see the need to bring in any of their assumptions regarding the political motivations behind the policies.  That's where we always get into trouble.
now I wonder just who that would be
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 19, 2021, 09:58:49 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 18, 2021, 03:59:07 PM
now I wonder just who that would be
there's no need to stir the pot
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on August 19, 2021, 10:21:25 AM
Quote from: utee94 on August 18, 2021, 11:12:00 AM
Unfortunately I suspect we'll also see diminishing returns from the already-vaxed.  I'd be shocked if we get 100% "return customers" when it's their turn to get the booster.



100% agree.

At some point enough of the cooperating public will give up on added advisories and mandates when it comes to the continually moving yardstick of Covid reactions. First the boosters are offered to the immunocompromised. Soon followed by a school district or Tech Startup mandating boosters as a condition of employment. Larger and larger segments of the public will bewail a prospective reality of vaccine boosters in perpetuity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 19, 2021, 10:28:46 AM
hopefully it will turn out similar to the flu vaccine.  It's available for those that want it or need it.

not a big deal

but hospitalizations and deaths will need to come down
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 19, 2021, 10:29:18 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 19, 2021, 09:58:49 AM
there's no need to stir the pot
youre right 

we have you for that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 19, 2021, 11:49:51 AM
Spain - trending down
UK - cases dropped and may be edging higher
France - MIGHT be toppng out, as noted before
Sweden - nudging higher from low base

Florida - Hopefully has peaked, but not clear yet
Georgia - same situation, hopefully, not clear

India is hard for me to understand.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 19, 2021, 11:54:09 AM
Texas still trending up but the rate seems to be slowing.  Hopefully we'll turn the corner soon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on August 19, 2021, 12:02:11 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 19, 2021, 10:28:46 AM
hopefully it will turn out similar to the flu vaccine.  It's available for those that want it or need it.

not a big deal

but hospitalizations and deaths will need to come down

Not a big deal if made available to the public to volunteer for, exactly as the flu shot is made available.

But certainly a different story if boosters are mandated across various populations of employment or university study.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 19, 2021, 12:15:04 PM
Schools already require a litany of vaccinations, I'd be okay with seeing COVID added to it.  

But in reality, this virus's novelty will wear off, humans' immune systems will become used to it, it will become endemic around the globe, and then it'll be just another annual problem that we all deal with like the cold and flu.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 19, 2021, 12:25:36 PM
yup, employers and others have been requiring different things forever

it's really not a big deal imo

apparently Biden wants to require all assisted living/nursing home employees to be vaccinated

I don't have a problem with that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 19, 2021, 01:53:38 PM
https://apple.news/A5pXLd1UQRESC1vPJJG6cBQ



Even the Scientists don’t agree 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 19, 2021, 01:58:57 PM
As the COVID-19 delta variant spreads, the National Park Service announced Monday it is enforcing new mask rules immediately.

Visitors, employees and contractors are now required to wear a mask inside all park service buildings and even in crowded outdoor spots.

The rule applies regardless of a person’s vaccination status or transmission levels within the community.

The park service said it’s following the latest science and guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.


https://www.fox19.com/2021/08/17/national-park-service-announces-new-mask-rules/ (https://www.fox19.com/2021/08/17/national-park-service-announces-new-mask-rules/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 19, 2021, 02:12:38 PM
Requiring vaccinated individuals to wear masks-- outside-- is silly.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 19, 2021, 03:22:25 PM
ABBOTT AND COSTELLO’S ‘WHO’S ON FIRST’ updated version ...

 Bud: ‘You can’t come in here!’
Lou: ‘Why not?’
Bud: ‘Well because you’re unvaccinated.’
Lou: ‘But I’m not sick.’
Bud: ‘It doesn’t matter.’
Lou: ‘Well, why does that guy get to go in?’
Bud: ‘Because he’s vaccinated.’
Lou: ‘But he’s sick!’
Bud: ‘It’s alright. Everyone in here is vaccinated.’
Lou: ‘Wait a minute. Are you saying everyone in there is vaccinated?’
Bud: ‘Yes.’
Lou: ‘So then why can’t I go in there if everyone is vaccinated?’
Bud: ‘Because you’ll make them sick.’
Lou: ‘How will I make them sick if I’m NOT sick and they’re vaccinated.’
Bud: ‘Because you’re unvaccinated.’
Lou: ‘But they’re vaccinated.’
Bud: ‘But they can still get sick.’
Lou: ‘So what the heck does the vaccine do?’
Bud: ‘It vaccinates.’
Lou: ‘So vaccinated people can’t spread covid?’
Bud: ‘Oh no. They can spread covid just as easily as an unvaccinated person.’
Lou: ‘I don’t even know what I’m saying anymore. Look, I’m not sick.’
Bud: ‘Ok.’
Lou: ‘And the guy you let in IS sick.’
Bud: ‘That’s right.’
Lou: ‘And everybody in there can still get sick even though they’re vaccinated.’
Bud: ‘Certainly.’
Lou: ‘So why can’t I go in again?’
Bud: ‘Because you’re unvaccinated.’
Lou: ‘I’m not asking who’s vaccinated or not!’
Bud: ‘I’m just telling you how it is.’
Lou: ‘Nevermind. I’ll just put on my mask.’
Bud: ‘That’s fine.’
Lou: ‘Now I can go in?’
Bud: ‘Absolutely not.’
Lou: ‘But I have a mask!’
Bud: ‘Doesn’t matter.’
Lou: ‘I was able to come in here yesterday with a mask.’
Bud: ‘I know.’
Lou: ‘So why can’t I come in here today with a mask? ... If you say ‘because I’m unvaccinated’ again, I’ll break your arm.’
Bud: ‘Take it easy buddy.’
Lou: ‘So the mask is no good anymore.’
Bud: ‘No, it’s still good.’
Lou: ‘But I can’t come in?’
Bud: ‘Correct.’
Lou: ‘Why not?’
Bud: ‘Because you’re unvaccinated.’
Lou: ‘But the mask prevents the germs from getting out.’
Bud: ‘Yes, but people can still catch your germs.’
Lou: ‘But they’re all vaccinated.’
Bud: ‘Yes, but they can still get sick.’
Lou: ‘But I’m not sick!!’
Bud: ‘You can still get them sick.’
Lou: ‘So then masks don’t work!’
Bud: ‘Masks work quite well.’
Lou: ‘So how in the heck can I get vaccinated people sick if I’m not sick and masks work?’
Bud: ‘Third base.
08-15-2021 08:59 PM
(https://csnbbs.com/images/english/postbit_find.gif) (https://csnbbs.com/search.php?action=finduser&uid=5718)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on August 19, 2021, 05:18:15 PM
David Montgomery at MPR seems confident that the current COVID wave has stalled out, and if not now, then this weekend. Just in time for the State Fair and school reopenings.

https://twitter.com/dhmontgomery/status/1428391673638313996?s=20

Moved over from the other news thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 19, 2021, 05:22:57 PM
Yeah I think things are leveling off here in Texas too.

But school just started.  We'll see if that makes any contribution.  It didn't last year, but Delta seems to be different.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 19, 2021, 05:30:45 PM
Vaccinations appear to be picking up a bit

Had over 1,000,000 yesterday and 800,000 the day before
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on August 19, 2021, 05:40:47 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 19, 2021, 05:22:57 PM
Yeah I think things are leveling off here in Texas too.

But school just started.  We'll see if that makes any contribution.  It didn't last year, but Delta seems to be different.
That's what worries me too. By and large, school districts go back in MN the day after Labor Day. 

However, we'll learn more about the State Fair's role with Delta before LDW. It opens next Thursday. Despite what the GM said to MPR yesterday, I think the crowds will be back with a vengeance. Any big transmission there will show up in the ~September 1-2-3 data.

And it's excellent that vaccination is picking up, especially in hard-hit areas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 19, 2021, 05:54:03 PM
Back in Florida, from being in CHIraq for a week. Good to be home. 

Travel, big party, lots of exposure.

Had a rapid test yesterday. No Covid.

All is well.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 19, 2021, 05:56:19 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 19, 2021, 05:54:03 PM
Back in Florida, from being in CHIraq for a week. Good to be home.

Travel, big party, lots of exposure.

Had a rapid test yesterday. No Covid.

All is well.


It takes 5-8 days post exposure don't ya know.  But you're vaxed, you'll be fine.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 19, 2021, 05:56:50 PM
Vaccine Refusers Risk Compassion Fatigue

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/08/health-care-workers-compassion-fatigue-vaccine-refusers/619716/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 20, 2021, 07:18:42 AM
Quote from: utee94 on August 19, 2021, 05:56:19 PM
It takes 5-8 days post exposure don't ya know.  But you're vaxed, you'll be fine.


Yep, waited 5 days from the party.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2021, 08:28:37 AM
No new trends worldwide, UK MAY be on an upswing, oddly, while Spain is clearly dropping.  More data I don't understand.

With any luck Florida has peaked.  Hospitals around here are in OK shape.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 20, 2021, 09:18:27 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on August 19, 2021, 05:40:47 PM
That's what worries me too. By and large, school districts go back in MN the day after Labor Day.

However, we'll learn more about the State Fair's role with Delta before LDW. It opens next Thursday. Despite what the GM said to MPR yesterday, I think the crowds will be back with a vengeance. Any big transmission there will show up in the ~September 1-2-3 data.

And it's excellent that vaccination is picking up, especially in hard-hit areas.
Iowa state fair is over - attendance at 680,000 for 7 days

Garth Brooks concert in the stadium in Lincoln 90,000 shoulder to shoulder, no masks

if those aren't super spreaders we will be OK
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2021, 09:23:38 AM
Texas State Fair runs late Sept. to mid Oct.  I'll be there, this year. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 20, 2021, 09:24:59 AM
wear your mask!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2021, 09:27:12 AM
No thanks I'm vaccinated and besides it's almost entirely outdoors.

Any place that requires a mask, of course, I will comply.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 20, 2021, 10:48:12 AM
https://apple.news/AfnM-joikS4GPKr72UQLK8A

Nothing conclusive, and still small statistical percentages, but for those who argue that nothing can ever go wrong with vaccines, I think this shows that that’s just too much of a generalization to be considered factual.  

And you can’t criticize the source.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 20, 2021, 11:18:49 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 20, 2021, 10:48:12 AM
https://apple.news/AfnM-joikS4GPKr72UQLK8A

Nothing conclusive, and still small statistical percentages, but for those who argue that nothing can ever go wrong with vaccines, I think this shows that that’s just too much of a generalization to be considered factual. 

And you can’t criticize the source.
Interesting

no real data or medical study to support this so wake me when that happens
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 20, 2021, 11:23:33 AM
But the CDC’s vaccine advisers, at a June 24 meeting, said that getting covid-19, the illness caused by the virus, puts someone at far greater risk of heart inflammation and other serious medical problems than the risk of developing myocarditis from vaccination.

The CDC and the Department of Health and Human Services, together with 15 of the country’s leading medical and public health organizations — including the American Academy of Pediatrics, the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, the American Medical Association and the American Nurses Association — issued a joint statement after the June meeting saying that they “strongly encourage everyone 12 and older” to get the shots because the benefits far outweigh potential harms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 20, 2021, 11:28:22 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 20, 2021, 11:18:49 AM
Interesting

no real data or medical study to support this so wake me when that happens
Oh- I dont disagree.  At all. 

But I have read several comments here that INSIST that nothing could ever go wrong with the vaccines for anyone ever, from now to eternity and beyond.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 20, 2021, 12:00:15 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 20, 2021, 08:28:37 AM
No new trends worldwide, UK MAY be on an upswing, oddly, while Spain is clearly dropping.  More data I don't understand.

With any luck Florida has peaked.  Hospitals around here are in OK shape.
Vax's have really ramped up here in the past month.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 20, 2021, 01:03:05 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 20, 2021, 11:28:22 AM
Oh- I dont disagree.  At all.

But I have read several comments here that INSIST that nothing could ever go wrong with the vaccines for anyone ever, from now to eternity and beyond.


haven't heard that from me

I have said that the risks for the vaccine are much less than the risks of the virus itself
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2021, 01:05:08 PM
Hyperbole, nobody among any authority ever asserted there was zero risk with any vaccine.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2021, 01:44:12 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 20, 2021, 11:28:22 AM
Oh- I dont disagree.  At all.

But I have read several comments here that INSIST that nothing could ever go wrong with the vaccines for anyone ever, from now to eternity and beyond.


I monitor this thread pretty closely and I don't recall anything like that. 

I have seen several people suggest that the likelihood of experiencing longterm effects from actually getting COVID are greater than than the longterm effects of the vaccine.  And that the risks associated with the vaccine are statistically insignificant compared to the risks of actually getting COVID.

It's possible, of course, that I missed some commentary somewhere.  I don't read every post on this thread, although I try to do my best.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2021, 02:09:35 PM
Nobody HERE has insisted there is no chance of some side effect for the vaccine, not a soul, to do so would be ridiculous.  Nobody in any position of authority has made such a claim either that I heard.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 20, 2021, 02:50:22 PM
Ok. 😂 I could say re-read this thread, but we will just let it go at that. ( there is nobody posting here that is authoritative). 
Everyone is in agreement that there are long term, unknown, POTENTIAL 
Side effects that could happen, and anyone claiming otherwise is full of shit? Right?

We also all have always agreed- benefits FAR outweigh the risks, which I have not seen debated here. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 20, 2021, 02:51:06 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 20, 2021, 01:05:08 PM
Hyperbole, nobody among any authority ever asserted there was zero risk with any vaccine. 


Not hyperbole.  Specifically talking about this thread.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 20, 2021, 02:52:59 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 20, 2021, 01:03:05 PM
haven't heard that from me

I have said that the risks for the vaccine are much less than the risks of the virus itself
Correct.  I haven’t heard that from you. Thanks 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2021, 03:01:50 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 20, 2021, 02:50:22 PM
Ok. 😂 I could say re-read this thread, but we will just let it go at that. ( there is nobody posting here that is authoritative).
Everyone is in agreement that there are long term, unknown, POTENTIAL
Side effects that could happen, and anyone claiming otherwise is full of shit? Right?

We also all have always agreed- benefits FAR outweigh the risks, which I have not seen debated here.

There's potential unknown risk with walking outside your home to put out the trashcans.  

Statistically, there's no evidence that getting the vaccine, is any riskier, than putting out your trashcans.

So the point is, that people citing the potential unknown risks of the vaccine, as a reason for not getting it and instead taking the well-understood and thoroughly documented risk of actually getting COVID, are acting irrationally.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 20, 2021, 03:15:11 PM
unless they are just uneducated on the virus and the vaccine

a large group of those not vaccinated are simply ignorant or not good at math, risk reward, risk evaluation
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2021, 03:16:49 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 20, 2021, 03:15:11 PM
unless they are just uneducated on the virus and the vaccine

a large group of those not vaccinated are simply ignorant or not good at math, risk reward, risk evaluation
If they're uneducated at this point, they have no one to blame but themselves.  It's intentional ignorance for which I have zero patience.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 20, 2021, 03:21:14 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 20, 2021, 03:01:50 PM
There's potential unknown risk with walking outside your home to put out the trashcans. 

Statistically, there's no evidence that getting the vaccine, is any riskier, than putting out your trashcans.

So the point is, that people citing the potential unknown risks of the vaccine, as a reason for not getting it and instead taking the well-understood and thoroughly documented risk of actually getting COVID, are acting irrationally. 


That is “a” point.  Maybe that is “the most important “ point.  But that is a separate conversation completely from the topic I started with the article I attached.


I dreamed ( several times from several adamant fellow forum members) of reading here that there were not only no known potential side effects- but that the “ science” of the vaccines dictates that is not possible.

I’m not gonna waste anymore time on this and go back through the thread and show you but trust me it is there.  If the scientists are saying “the potential side effect that we see with the Moderna vaccine may be more frequent than we originally thought” then it proves the point.
Never did I or anyone else here say that benefits don’t outweigh the risks.  But I have again read several posts here indicating that there are no risks and never could be. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 20, 2021, 03:24:07 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 20, 2021, 03:15:11 PM
unless they are just uneducated on the virus and the vaccine

a large group of those not vaccinated are simply ignorant or not good at math, risk reward, risk evaluation
Again here you keep going back to a tangent that’s not related to my point at all. It’s like that’s all you can say is if you’re saying don’t discuss the scientific risks that are being talked about and investigated.  The point you’re making is already university agreed-upon. This conversation has nothing to do with the risk benefits decision.  Nothing. 
It is a conversation about just the risks and whether or not there is any or could be any ever going forward.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2021, 03:30:27 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 20, 2021, 03:24:07 PM
Again here you keep going back to a tangent that’s not related to my point at all. It’s like that’s all you can say is if you’re saying don’t discuss the scientific risks that are being talked about and investigated.  The point you’re making is already university agreed-upon. This conversation has nothing to do with the risk benefits decision.  Nothing.
It is a conversation about just the risks and whether or not there is any or could be any ever going forward.
But you haven't cited any evidence for your position.  You keep assuring us "it's there" but you haven't cited it, and I at least, don't recall anyone making the assertion that there is zero chance that there could ever be any side effects from this vaccine, ever.  I just don't think anyone on this thread has ever made that statement.

So you should either support your argument, or drop it.  Because just saying "Yeah it's in there I know it is" simply isn't a compelling argument.

If you'd like to drop it, feel free-- but you're the one that brought it up in the first place, with no evidence to support your assertions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 20, 2021, 03:37:53 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 20, 2021, 03:30:27 PM
But you haven't cited any evidence for your position.  You keep assuring us "it's there" but you haven't cited it, and I at least, don't recall anyone making the assertion that there is zero chance that there could ever be any side effects from this vaccine, ever.  I just don't think anyone on this thread has ever made that statement.

So you should either support your argument, or drop it.  Because just saying "Yeah it's in there I know it is" simply isn't a compelling argument.

If you'd like to drop it, feel free-- but you're the one that brought it up in the first place, with no evidence to support your assertions.

did you not read the article?  It specifically discusses that they are looking at the data to understand if the existing risk (acknowledged) is worse than they originally thought.  That is all the support I need for my "argument"- that anyone who says there is no risk, and never could be- is not possibly correct. That is where the strawman is- not in my countering it. I shouldn't need evidence for something as obvious as that anyway.

I suspect the reason you don't remember seeing it is because it comes from members who I am guessing you like to immediately forget when you read what they post.

So... how bout those Cowboys....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2021, 03:41:04 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 20, 2021, 03:37:53 PM
did you not read the article?  It specifically discusses that they are looking at the data to understand if the existing risk (acknowledged) is worse than they originally thought.  That is all the support I need for my "argument"- that anyone who says there is no risk, and never could be- is not possibly correct. That is where the strawman is- not in my countering it. I shouldn't need evidence for something as obvious as that anyway.

I suspect the reason you don't remember seeing it is because it comes from members who I am guessing you like to immediately forget when you read what they post.

So... how bout those Cowboys....
HA!  


Could be.


And the Cowboys are gonna suck most likely.  Which I don't like, but most people in the USA are happy to see occur.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 20, 2021, 03:45:32 PM
there is always some amount of risk with any drug or medicine - always some potential for long term

if the research that has been done so far is anywhere near accurate, the existing risk and risk of long term effects is minuscule 

doesn't mean there is no risk, just means the "risk" is not a valid reason to refuse the vaccine

as some folks are doing, looking for any and all reasons to avoid the shot, then by all means use "the risk" as your reasoning
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 20, 2021, 03:46:07 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 20, 2021, 03:41:04 PM
HA! 


Could be.


And the Cowboys are gonna suck most likely.  Which I don't like, but most people in the USA are happy to see occur.
it would cause me a bit of happiness
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 20, 2021, 03:48:14 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 07, 2021, 02:53:57 AM
Never in the history of vaccinations has a detrimental side effect "appeared" several years after its release.  The time for "wait and see" is about 2 months. 
But I'm sure that doesn't matter.
lots of examples.   this is just one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 20, 2021, 03:49:31 PM
I like the Cowboys-  I have always liked Dak Prescott    He seems like a warrior with a great heart.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2021, 03:51:49 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 20, 2021, 03:48:14 PM
lots of examples.  this is just one.
Ha!  Fair enough.  I think I even remember reading that one, now that you mention it, and thinking it was a silly statement at the time.

So I'll admit I was wrong, such claims WERE made on this thread.  And I even read them, apparently.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 20, 2021, 03:54:14 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 20, 2021, 03:48:14 PM
lots of examples.  this is just one.
LOL youre actually using OAM as a source

man Im convinced
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2021, 04:04:21 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 20, 2021, 03:54:14 PM
LOL youre actually using OAM as a source

man Im convinced

No, he's actually proven his point.  He said he'd heard from people on this thread, that there could be no possible eventual side effects.  And he was correct.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 20, 2021, 04:08:37 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 20, 2021, 04:04:21 PM
No, he's actually proven his point.  He said he'd heard from people on this thread, that there could be no possible eventual side effects.  And he was correct.


the system was rigged
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 20, 2021, 04:19:25 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 20, 2021, 03:48:14 PM
lots of examples.  this is just one.
he's not wrong
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 20, 2021, 04:25:34 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 20, 2021, 04:19:25 PM
he's not wrong
You Huskers are fierce    No give up. 

when I was a child my mother used to say “you would argue with Jesus and probably win“

And then she would say “shut up”
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 20, 2021, 04:28:47 PM
he didn't say there was no potential long term effect

;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 20, 2021, 04:37:09 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 20, 2021, 03:21:14 PM
That is “a” point.  Maybe that is “the most important “ point.  But that is a separate conversation completely from the topic I started with the article I attached.


I dreamed ( several times from several adamant fellow forum members) of reading here that there were not only no known potential side effects- but that the “ science” of the vaccines dictates that is not possible.

I’m not gonna waste anymore time on this and go back through the thread and show you but trust me it is there.  If the scientists are saying “the potential side effect that we see with the Moderna vaccine may be more frequent than we originally thought” then it proves the point.
Never did I or anyone else here say that benefits don’t outweigh the risks.  But I have again read several posts here indicating that there are no risks and never could be. 
I certainly have said nothing of the sort. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 20, 2021, 04:45:42 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 20, 2021, 04:37:09 PM
I certainly have said nothing of the sort.

No.  You do this weird thing called : presenting actual facts. 

It screws everything up.  What is your deal😜
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2021, 05:08:05 PM
We've already seen some risks, apparently, the carditis.  Nobody with a brain would ever say a risk of a vaccine cannot possibly be anything but zero.

OAM merely noted that side effects usually manifest in 2 months or so, if there are any, and we've seen some, in 2-3 months.

I think it POSSIBLE a side effect could show up in 2 years, I don't think it's likely.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 20, 2021, 05:28:32 PM
At least 33 of Nebraska’s nearly 200 federally licensed nursing homes have staff vaccination rates under 50%, federal figures show.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 20, 2021, 05:43:32 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 20, 2021, 05:08:05 PM
We've already seen some risks, apparently, the carditis.  Nobody with a brain would ever say a risk of a vaccine cannot possibly be anything but zero.

OAM merely noted that side effects usually manifest in 2 months or so, if there are any, and we've seen some, in 2-3 months.

I think it POSSIBLE a side effect could show up in 2 years, I don't think it's likely.


Yes- he did note that 2 month timeframe- which is generally very accurate.

But his statement starts with “never in the history “.  That renders the rest of it false, and hyperbole.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2021, 05:53:06 PM
"Never in the history of vaccinations has a detrimental side effect "appeared" several years after its release.  The time for "wait and see" is about 2 months. "

I doubt this is true, but it isn't the same as claiming there can not possibly be a side effect from the vaccine.  Here is perhaps a more "authoritative" source:

Vaccines are highly unlikely to cause side effects long after getting the shot (nationalgeographic.com) (https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/vaccines-are-highly-unlikely-to-cause-side-effects-long-after-getting-the-shot-)

Vaccine Side Effects and Adverse Events | History of Vaccines (https://www.historyofvaccines.org/content/articles/vaccine-side-effects-and-adverse-events)



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2021, 05:55:51 PM
In 1998, a rotavirus vaccine (RotaShield, by Wyeth (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wyeth)) was licensed for use in the United States. Clinical trials in the United States, Finland (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finland), and Venezuela (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuela) had found it to be 80 to 100% effective at preventing severe diarrhea caused by rotavirus A, and researchers had detected no statistically significant serious adverse effects. The manufacturer of the vaccine, however, withdrew it from the market in 1999, after it was discovered that the vaccine may have contributed to an increased risk for intussusception (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intussusception_(medical_disorder)), or bowel obstruction, in one of every 12,000 vaccinated infants.[27] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rotavirus_vaccine#cite_note-SI_42_6_Hall-27) There then followed eight years of delay until rival manufacturers were able to introduce new vaccines that were shown to be more safe and effective in children: Rotarix by GlaxoSmithKline (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GlaxoSmithKline)[16] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rotavirus_vaccine#cite_note-pmid17280473-16) and RotaTeq by Merck (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merck_%26_Co.,_Inc.).[28] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rotavirus_vaccine#cite_note-pmid17055370-28) Both are taken orally and contain disabled live virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 20, 2021, 05:56:21 PM
show an example of a vaccine that has had long term effects

there you go

if it was pulled from the market, that's proof enough for me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 20, 2021, 08:26:36 PM
https://twitter.com/hawaiiathletics/status/1428824046775402502?s=21

Yikes.   Is this the first?  Inevitable?

Hawaii has a very high vaccination rate too.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 20, 2021, 09:14:56 PM
I think its an over reaction

I really dont think football is big there

so no loss from their viewpoint
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 20, 2021, 09:16:50 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 20, 2021, 09:14:56 PM
I think its an over reaction

I really dont think football is big there

so no loss from their viewpoint
Hope your right. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 20, 2021, 09:54:22 PM
it's an island, they can control things a bit

similar to New Zealand locking down the entire island
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 20, 2021, 11:29:39 PM
THE MORNING DISPATCH (https://morning.thedispatch.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=menu)
The Morning Dispatch: Tripling Down on COVID Shots

. . .

Is a Third Shot in Your Future?
(https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faf5af651-f887-4e82-8860-5f7c5b5a0c9c_1024x683.jpeg) (https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faf5af651-f887-4e82-8860-5f7c5b5a0c9c_1024x683.jpeg)(Photo by Jacob King - WPA Pool / Getty Images.)
While the world’s attention has been understandably focused on the situation in Afghanistan, the Delta variant has continued doing what it does best: spreading.

The sources upon which TMD had come to rely in compiling its daily COVID data have unfortunately stopped providing some of the more relevant statistics, but the New York Times’ Coronavirus in the U.S. (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html) data visualization has proven a worthy replacement.
(https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5a3eab5-99e7-4fb5-8abd-cbf75c4ca456_1600x959.png) (https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5a3eab5-99e7-4fb5-8abd-cbf75c4ca456_1600x959.png)
The seven-day average for confirmed new cases has climbed to 143,792—a 44 percent increase over the past two weeks, reaching a level not seen in the United States since early February. Hospitalizations and deaths are following suit, with their rolling averages rising 53 and 108 percent over the past 14 days, respectively.

The current wave—of which, per CDC surveillance testing (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions), the Delta variant now makes up nearly 99 percent—is absolutely pummeling the southeastern United States. The Alabama Hospital Association said there was not a single (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/19/us/alabama-icu-shortage.html) ICU bed available in the state on Wednesday, and Mississippi just opened (https://apnews.com/article/health-education-coronavirus-pandemic-mississippi-0601fa79209539675f77f608fb5ee65f) its second emergency field hospital this week. Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida are averaging (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html) about one daily COVID-19 death per 100,000 residents—nearly four times the national average of 0.27.
This isn’t happening in a vacuum. Alabama and Mississippi have the two lowest vaccination rates in the country, with just 36 percent (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html) of residents fully vaccinated, and Louisiana is fifth lowest at 39 percent. Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves last week labeled the shots (https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/local/2021/08/13/ms-governor-doubles-down-no-masks-says-delta-variant-pass/8120935002/) safe, effective, and the “best tool we have moving forward to beat the virus,” but added a few days later (https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/2021/08/19/tate-reeves-thomas-dobbs-discuss-covid-19-mississippi/8192522002/) he will “always defend” his constituents’ right not to get them.

But whether it’s the growing number of public- (https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2021/08/12/secretary-becerra-to-require-covid-19-vaccinations-for-hhs-health-care-workforce.html) or private-sector (https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/here-are-companies-mandating-vaccines-all-or-some-employees-n1275808) mandates, or simply fear of the Delta variant, the pace of daily vaccination is once again on the rise. One month ago, the United States was averaging (https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) 497,000 shots per day. Now, that average is up to 823,000—and more than 1 million shots were administered yesterday, for the first time since July 1. All in all, slightly more than 70 percent (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-total) of the nation’s eligible people have received at least one vaccine dose, and slightly less than 60 percent are fully vaccinated.

The definition of “fully vaccinated,” however, could soon be in flux. On Wednesday—just days after the FDA and CDC approved COVID-19 booster shots (https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/clinical-considerations/covid-19-vaccines-us.html) for immunocompromised individuals only (because they have been demonstrated to have a uniquely poor immune response to the vaccine)—the Biden administration’s top public health officials issued a joint statement (https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2021/08/18/joint-statement-hhs-public-health-and-medical-experts-covid-19-booster-shots.html) announcing their plan to begin offering third doses to all Moderna and Pfizer vaccine recipients this fall eight months removed from their second dose, pending FDA and CDC approval. (They say Johnson & Johnson recipients will likely need a booster as well, but data will not be available for a few more weeks.)

To justify the move—which is a reversal from the agencies’ position (https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2021/07/08/joint-cdc-and-fda-statement-vaccine-boosters.html) six weeks ago—the CDC released a flurry of studies showing that the immunity of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines confer against infection wanes over time.



What these studies also show, however, is that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines’ protection against hospitalization remained very stable over the same time period. In the New York study (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e1.htm?s_cid=mm7034e1_w#T1_down), efficacy hovered between 92 and 95 percent. A third study (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e2.htm?s_cid=mm7034e2_w)—looking at data from 21 hospitals in 18 different states—found that “no decline in vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 hospitalization was observed over 24 weeks.” This research is consistent with real-world CDC data (https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html), which, as of August 9, show that 5,725 of 166 million fully vaccinated Americans (approximately 0.003 percent) have been hospitalized due to COVID-19 and 1,246 of 166 million fully vaccinated Americans (0.0008 percent) have died from it.


The aforementioned joint statement (https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2021/08/18/joint-statement-hhs-public-health-and-medical-experts-covid-19-booster-shots.html)—from CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky, Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy, and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci, among others—acknowledges this reality, but argues it’s better to be ahead of the curve than behind it. “The available data make very clear that protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection begins to decrease over time following the initial doses of vaccination, and in association with the dominance of the Delta variant, we are starting to see evidence of reduced protection against mild and moderate disease,” the officials write. “Based on our latest assessment, the current protection against severe disease, hospitalization, and death could diminish in the months ahead, especially among those who are at higher risk or were vaccinated during the earlier phases of the vaccination rollout.”

The plan has been met with its fair share of criticism—and not just from the World Health Organization, whose director earlier this month argued (https://www.who.int/director-general/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-4-august-2021) we cannot “accept countries that have already used most of the global supply of vaccines using even more of it, while the world’s most vulnerable people remain unprotected.” (President Biden brushed this criticism off in an (https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/full-transcript-abc-news-george-stephanopoulos-interview-president/story?id=79535643)ABC News (https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/full-transcript-abc-news-george-stephanopoulos-interview-president/story?id=79535643) interview (https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/full-transcript-abc-news-george-stephanopoulos-interview-president/story?id=79535643) earlier this week, arguing the United States will provide half a billion shots to the rest of the world by mid-2022 and is “doing more than anybody.”)

Dr. Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, doesn’t buy that an erosion of vaccine efficacy against severe disease and hospitalization is just around the corner. “For protection against serious disease, really all you need is immunological memory,” he told The Dispatch. “You don’t necessarily have to have high titers, the virus’ neutralizing antibodies in your circulation. Immunological memory is longer lived.”

On a micro-level, there’s not really a downside to a third dose. Clinical trials—for both Moderna (https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-positive-initial-booster-data-against-sars-cov) and Pfizer (https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-submission-initial-data-us-fda)—have demonstrated boosters to be safe, and to yield even higher amounts of neutralizing antibody titers against COVID-19 (and its variants) than a two-dose regimen. Real-world data out of Israel (https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizers-covid-19-booster-shot-improves-immunity-israeli-study-suggests-11629308427) this week found the Pfizer booster shot to reduce the risk of infection among those 60 and older by 86 percent and the risk of severe disease by 92 percent.

“I think it will be safe, and I think—without question—it will boost immunity,” Offit said. “But my problem is do you need to do it now, or why couldn’t we wait until there was some evidence that you really needed to do it? … I just worry that it sends the wrong message out there that people aren’t protected and now will feel unprotected when they’re really not unprotected.”
The move also has the potential to further dissuade those who have thus far refused the vaccine from changing their minds, either because three shots seems like a big lift or because they perceive the vaccines to be less effective than they actually are. “That sounds to me like the moneymaking operation for Pfizer,” former President Donald Trump told Fox News (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/08/18/trump-went-fox-promoted-vaccines-then-host-goaded-him-into-bashing-boosters/) earlier this week. “You wouldn’t think you would need a booster. You know, when these first came out, they were good for life.” (The vaccines were never promised to be good for life.)

This is ultimately why Offit is frustrated with the Biden administration’s strategy here. “We now are about to devote a fair amount of resources to boosting people who’ve already been vaccinated,” he said. ”I think that will have little impact on the transmissibility of this virus. … If we want to get on top of this pandemic, the issue is not giving a booster dose to the vaccinated, it’s vaccinating the unvaccinated.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 21, 2021, 12:07:13 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 20, 2021, 08:26:36 PM
https://twitter.com/hawaiiathletics/status/1428824046775402502?s=21

Yikes.  Is this the first?  Inevitable?

Hawaii has a very high vaccination rate too. 
I think they’re playing like a rec center this year or some thing. They have kind of a mess on their hands.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 21, 2021, 08:14:23 AM
This is ultimately why Offit is frustrated with the Biden administration’s strategy here. “We now are about to devote a fair amount of resources to boosting people who’ve already been vaccinated,” he said.

Dude,

the unvaccinated aren't going to get vaccinated.  They've had their chance at those resources and passed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2021, 09:33:03 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 20, 2021, 05:56:21 PM
show an example of a vaccine that has had long term effects

there you go

if it was pulled from the market, that's proof enough for me
It is a rare thing.  I had to hunt this example down, and it was pulled in a year or so.

I think it generally true that side effects show up pretty quickly IFF you track with VAERS etc.  I did not find an example of side effects showing up 3-4 years later.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2021, 09:34:02 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 21, 2021, 08:14:23 AM
the unvaccinated aren't going to get vaccinated.  They've had their chance at those resources and passed.
I think there is a hard core group that won't, maybe 20% of adults, and another group that is "wait and see" who could be convinced, maybe 20%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2021, 09:35:59 AM
I don't see a change in EU trends, UK MAY be going up some, Spain is clearly down, France looks like a peak.

Georgia looks to be continuing up, Florida MAY be at a top.

Sweden is interesting, as always.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 21, 2021, 09:38:33 AM
I don't think the wait and seers are close to 20%.  Maybe half that.  Maybe.  The rest, just won't ever do it. 

But we also have to account for kids under 12 that will eventually be approved.  For various reasons, I expect their vaccination rates to be even lower than adults, but it's still a decent chunk of supply to hold back.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2021, 09:41:29 AM
My very rough notion is 60% 20% 20%.  It might be more like 60-15-25, don't know.

And some have some resistance due to having had it.

Full FDA approval for Pfizer vaccine could come next week: reports | TheHill (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/568814-full-fda-approval-for-pfizer-vaccine-could-come-next-week-reports)

This might shift some opinions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 21, 2021, 10:36:45 AM
Delta has been increasing vacc rates nationally.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 21, 2021, 10:41:01 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 21, 2021, 10:36:45 AM
Delta has been increasing vacc rates nationally.
we are currently flying blind

not much data on how many nationally that are new cases are break through vs unvaccinated

same on covid deaths

that would be good info to know

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on August 21, 2021, 10:45:46 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 20, 2021, 08:28:37 AM
No new trends worldwide, UK MAY be on an upswing, oddly, while Spain is clearly dropping.  More data I don't understand.



Definitely worth noticing how UK’s gradual upswing of cases soon after peaking this time last month is strangely bucking the usual trends followed by Covid case cycling. Typically only happens when a different variant comes into play.


(https://i.imgur.com/9uA4XeV.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 21, 2021, 10:48:32 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on August 21, 2021, 10:45:46 AM

Definitely worth noticing how UK’s gradual upswing of cases soon after peaking this time last month is strangely bucking the usual trends followed by Covid case cycling. Typically only happens when a different variant comes into play.


(https://i.imgur.com/9uA4XeV.png)
Here again without knowing how many of the new cases are break through its very hard to really know whats happening
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 21, 2021, 10:58:00 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 21, 2021, 10:41:01 AM
we are currently flying blind

not much data on how many nationally that are new cases are break through vs unvaccinated

same on covid deaths

that would be good info to know


I was referring to vaccination rates. The rise of Delta is causing people who are hesitant to get the shot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 21, 2021, 11:03:24 AM
Looks like FL has peaked out. Lots of vax's given last week - and half of them were 1st dose. Delta. Thanks.

(https://i.imgur.com/dQCCGhp.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 21, 2021, 11:03:56 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 21, 2021, 10:58:00 AM
I was referring to vaccination rates. The rise of Delta is causing people who are hesitant to get the shot.
thats great but I was not responding to your post

even though I quoted you
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 21, 2021, 11:06:31 AM
the key is break through cases

if they are low then we are doing fine but if high thats bad
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 21, 2021, 11:15:12 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 21, 2021, 11:03:56 AM
thats great but I was not responding to your post

even though I quoted you
Ahh. Then you can understand my confusion...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 21, 2021, 11:16:47 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 21, 2021, 11:15:12 AM
Ahh. Then you can understand my confusion...
yep my bad
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2021, 03:05:08 PM
There are several countries I cannot explain, Sweden, UK, India, Brazil ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 22, 2021, 08:59:22 AM
Texas Governor has tested negative for Covid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 22, 2021, 09:27:42 AM
false positive or false negative?

or both?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 22, 2021, 09:37:10 AM
Probably both were correct and neither were false.  That's what the vaccine does, it gets your system ready to fight off COVID quickly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 22, 2021, 09:39:59 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/m6CDxBC.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 22, 2021, 09:44:17 AM
well, with more cases and more vaccinations, hopefully the curve will flatten itself soon
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 22, 2021, 09:46:11 AM
I'd like to see more and more 30+ getting the shot. But, we're getting there, slowly. 85% is my wish. 65+ is already there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 22, 2021, 09:48:11 AM
I keep wishing the same, get the shot
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2021, 11:46:47 AM
UK - trending up, not a good sign

Spain - clearly trending down, a good sign

France - MAY be starting down, a hopeful sign

Sweden - slight trend up from a low base

Florida - MAY be peaking, MAY

Georgia - Trending up, clearly, not good

Ohio - Trending up from a low base

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 22, 2021, 12:53:46 PM
I'm about ready to see hospitals be given permission to turn away Covid-positive adults who haven't been vaccinated.  That way the ICUs can be used to treat people who didn't make a conscious decision to disregard 15 months of pleas that they get the free vaccinations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 22, 2021, 01:30:07 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 22, 2021, 12:53:46 PM
I'm about ready to see hospitals be given permission to turn away Covid-positive adults who haven't been vaccinated.  That way the ICUs can be used to treat people who didn't make a conscious decision to disregard 15 months of pleas that they get the free vaccinations.
yep and also all fat people and smokers

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 22, 2021, 02:41:35 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 22, 2021, 01:30:07 PM
yep and also all fat people and smokers


That's who keeps them in business....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 22, 2021, 02:58:33 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 22, 2021, 01:30:07 PM
yep and also all fat people and smokers


And drug users and people that speed in their cars and cause wrecks and people that step on rakes and break their noses and...

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 22, 2021, 02:41:35 PM
That's who keeps them in business....

And business is good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2021, 04:45:02 PM
I was driving today the 35 mph speed limit and someone passed me on the right in an old Toyota Camry with paper plates doing maybe 75.  He then had to slam on his brakes, smoke coming out, because of cars waiting on a light, I expected a bad one there.  He managed to stop somehow.

I saw him coming up on me and drifted into the oncoming lanes to give him room, nobody was coming at me.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 22, 2021, 07:43:11 PM
keeping stupid folks out of hospitals???

some are stupid enough to NOT have health insurance
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on August 22, 2021, 11:02:04 PM
My in-laws on my wife's side: Those who have no college education, or are not married to someone with a college education, I believe, are all not vaccinated, or at least a vast majority are not vaccinated.

I am vaccinated and had asymptomatic COVID-19 in October. I am probably very well-immunized. 

I don't want to sit out two-weeks, again and work with no administrative assistant in my solo practice law office.  I don't want my vaccinated wife to get a break-through COVID case, either.

I do not understand how some people like Phil Valentine, will seek out a whacko doctor to prescribe Ivermectin, intended for treatment of parasitic roundworms, in an effort to avoid receiving a highly efficacious COVID-19 vaccine that carries with it virtually no known serious risk to health. The doctor that prescribed it should be brought before the Board of Medicine in Tennessee, and disciplined.

I was on Phil Valentine's Facebook site tonight. He has disciples there posting how they won't vaccinate and took Ivermectin, for which there is no data showing it is efficacious for COVID-19. Phil Valentine is dead of COVID-19 at age 61. I wonder how many others he influenced who died, will die, or have had serious consequences from either taking Ivermectin, or from COVID-19.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 23, 2021, 08:14:41 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 22, 2021, 11:46:47 AM
UK - trending up, not a good sign

Spain - clearly trending down, a good sign

France - MAY be starting down, a hopeful sign

Sweden - slight trend up from a low base

Florida - MAY be peaking, MAY

Georgia - Trending up, clearly, not good

Ohio - Trending up from a low base
No change, but as we know, trying to read the data day to day can be misleading.  I HOPE FL has peaked.  The curve shape looks that way, but it could still go up obviously, and the UK thing is perplexing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 23, 2021, 08:55:13 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on August 22, 2021, 11:02:04 PM
I was on Phil Valentine's Facebook site tonight. He has disciples there posting how they won't vaccinate and took Ivermectin, for which there is no data showing it is efficacious for COVID-19. Phil Valentine is dead of COVID-19 at age 61. I wonder how many others he influenced who died, will die, or have had serious consequences from either taking Ivermectin, or from COVID-19.


frustrating
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 23, 2021, 09:09:41 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/XONkIAJ.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 23, 2021, 10:35:48 AM
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/240503544_10226438028644104_2164487004471250913_n.jpg?_nc_cat=106&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=EJutpLQEO60AX9Czwjg&tn=DQyWguGePQvwhrSC&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=9f7045784ed784aab20a6a1932e4db06&oe=614A7CDF)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 23, 2021, 10:36:00 AM

(https://i.imgur.com/4Aesd1u.png)

[color=rgb( var(--theme-link) )]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.20.21260795v1.full.pdf (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.20.21260795v1.full.pdf)[/url][/font][/size][/color]

[color=rgb( var(--theme-link) )]https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20210810/covid-vaccine-hesitancy-90-million (https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20210810/covid-vaccine-hesitancy-90-million)[/url][/font][/size][/color]



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 23, 2021, 11:48:44 AM
vaccinations have definitely picked up with an average of 1,000,000 per day for the last 5 days
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 23, 2021, 12:09:02 PM
My wife's SIL is a nurse up in Oregon. Her husband (my wife's brother) is anti-mask, anti-vaccine, kinda anti-taking-COVID-seriously. 

She may lose her job as a result of refusing to get the vaccine. I believe OR just made it mandatory statewide that all healthcare workers be vaccinated.

Now, I can understand her not feeling like she needs it for herself. She's younger than us, she's in perfect health (and compared to us in even MUCH better shape, because she's a Crossfit junkie), and probably has no likelihood of even noticing a COVID infection...

I can also understand anger at a vaccine mandate... I clearly believe in vaccination, but I'd be pissed at California telling me I HAD TO get the shot even though I already supported doing it. I bristle at being told what to do, even if it's for my own good.

But her job is in a rheumatologist's office, which means that she's around immune compromised patients on a regular basis. If I was the doctor running that practice it *already* would have been my policy that my employees be vaccinated, to protect the patients that they see. Many of those patients, even if they have gotten the vaccine, may have conditions that make the vaccine less effective due to their own immune system shortcomings. She might not want the vaccine, but how would she feel if she ended up getting a COVID infection, passing it on to a vulnerable patient before she realized she had it, and then that patient died because he/she wasn't as young and healthy as she is?

Sometimes I just don't understand people. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 23, 2021, 12:11:09 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 23, 2021, 10:36:00 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/4Aesd1u.png)

[color=rgb( var(--theme-link) )]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.20.21260795v1.full.pdf (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.20.21260795v1.full.pdf)[/url][/font][/size][/color]

[color=rgb( var(--theme-link) )]https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20210810/covid-vaccine-hesitancy-90-million (https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20210810/covid-vaccine-hesitancy-90-million)[/url][/font][/size][/color]




wow. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 23, 2021, 12:17:38 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 23, 2021, 12:09:02 PM
She may lose her job as a result of refusing to get the vaccine. I believe OR just made it mandatory statewide that all healthcare workers be vaccinated.

Sometimes I just don't understand people.


folks willing to lose their jobs must not value their job much or, they're just irrational 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 23, 2021, 12:22:59 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 22, 2021, 04:45:02 PM
I was driving today the 35 mph speed limit and someone passed me on the right in an old Toyota Camry with paper plates doing maybe 75.  He then had to slam on his brakes, smoke coming out, because of cars waiting on a light, I expected a bad one there.  He managed to stop somehow.

I saw him coming up on me and drifted into the oncoming lanes to give him room, nobody was coming at me.
It's situations like this are the reason I won't conceal carry.To desire to bust a burning slug into some steaming pile who desperately deserves it would be more than I could surpress
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on August 23, 2021, 12:58:50 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 23, 2021, 12:09:02 PM
My wife's SIL is a nurse up in Oregon. Her husband (my wife's brother) is anti-mask, anti-vaccine, kinda anti-taking-COVID-seriously.

She may lose her job as a result of refusing to get the vaccine. I believe OR just made it mandatory statewide that all healthcare workers be vaccinated.

Now, I can understand her not feeling like she needs it for herself. She's younger than us, she's in perfect health (and compared to us in even MUCH better shape, because she's a Crossfit junkie), and probably has no likelihood of even noticing a COVID infection...

I can also understand anger at a vaccine mandate... I clearly believe in vaccination, but I'd be pissed at California telling me I HAD TO get the shot even though I already supported doing it. I bristle at being told what to do, even if it's for my own good.

But her job is in a rheumatologist's office, which means that she's around immune compromised patients on a regular basis. If I was the doctor running that practice it *already* would have been my policy that my employees be vaccinated, to protect the patients that they see. Many of those patients, even if they have gotten the vaccine, may have conditions that make the vaccine less effective due to their own immune system shortcomings. She might not want the vaccine, but how would she feel if she ended up getting a COVID infection, passing it on to a vulnerable patient before she realized she had it, and then that patient died because he/she wasn't as young and healthy as she is?

Sometimes I just don't understand people.
I understand what you're saying, but what about the future?  We will never, ever get 100% vaccinated, even with mandates, laws, bribery (cash for vax), etc.  So chances are that this person who is immune-compromised will sooner or later bump up against somebody who is not vaxxed.  This stuff is never going away, and as we've seen break through infections are common.  

I just got an email that the guy that sit in the desk next to mine tested positive.  He's had both shots.  He says he's doing well, fever and headaches.  

I believe in personal freedom.  Time to move on with our lives, can't hide forever.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 23, 2021, 01:01:44 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 23, 2021, 12:17:38 PM
folks willing to lose their jobs must not value their job much or, they're just irrational
Well, everyone has a point, or should... I'm sure there are things that my employer could ask me to do that I would rather lose my job than do. I don't expect them ever to ask anything of the sort. 

Asking me to vaccinate myself from a pandemic wouldn't even come close to pushing me over that line. Particularly if that requirement came from the State of California and it would ensure that I couldn't get another job in my field anywhere in the state due to refusal. 

I mean, I could always move to Austin... But hardly seems necessary to do that over a vaccine. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 23, 2021, 01:09:03 PM
You don't want to move to Austin.  Nobody here believes COVID is real.  You'd probably die in the first week or so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 23, 2021, 01:11:07 PM
Quote from: Gigem on August 23, 2021, 12:58:50 PM
I understand what you're saying, but what about the future?  We will never, ever get 100% vaccinated, even with mandates, laws, bribery (cash for vax), etc.  So chances are that this person who is immune-compromised will sooner or later bump up against somebody who is not vaxxed.  This stuff is never going away, and as we've seen break through infections are common. 

I just got an email that the guy that sit in the desk next to mine tested positive.  He's had both shots.  He says he's doing well, fever and headaches. 

I believe in personal freedom.  Time to move on with our lives, can't hide forever. 
I'm not sure I agree with government mandates. I believe that people should voluntarily get the shot. Granted, we've established in this thread that the Supreme Court has previously upheld the Constitutionality of a vaccine mandate. But while COVID is pretty serious, I don't think it rises to that level.

I have no ideological issue with an employer mandate. Especially in fields which require significant interaction with the public. If my company mandated vaccines, I'd probably be a little angry about it. But they can mandate that I get certain vaccines to travel to certain countries, and essentially require me to travel to those countries if its integral to my job, and I'm not going to lose my mind over that either. 

Losing your job over a vaccine mandate seems to me to be particularly a #firstworldproblem...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 23, 2021, 01:11:48 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 23, 2021, 12:17:38 PM
folks willing to lose their jobs must not value their job much or, they're just irrational
You do realize people have certain reaction to not only food but meds right? I'm mean if you're already inoculated what's the worry,you should be grateful that herd is being thinned out.I know for a fact not group think that an individual did in fact die with hours of getting vaxed. I've taken every precaution sans the vax,has nothing to do with my IQ or where i attended school.Still wiping down surfaces in the car after shopping and the side door,not as vigilant as previouslythough. Also Big Pharma aren't libel so those people have no recourse who have had deadly reactions,hmm that's alright,frighten people who may have deadly symptoms not everyone is a rube or ill prepared
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 23, 2021, 01:13:54 PM
Quote from: Gigem on August 23, 2021, 12:58:50 PM
I understand what you're saying, but what about the future?  We will never, ever get 100% vaccinated, even with mandates, laws, bribery (cash for vax), etc.  So chances are that this person who is immune-compromised will sooner or later bump up against somebody who is not vaxxed.  This stuff is never going away, and as we've seen break through infections are common. 

I just got an email that the guy that sit in the desk next to mine tested positive.  He's had both shots.  He says he's doing well, fever and headaches. 

I believe in personal freedom.  Time to move on with our lives, can't hide forever. 
I don't like this logic.  Certainly wouldn't want to be that "somebody".  I'd much rather it was later than sooner.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 23, 2021, 01:16:52 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 23, 2021, 01:01:44 PM
I mean, I could always move to Austin... But hardly seems necessary to do that over a vaccine.
Cost of Living,get on with it man imagine the fun you and 94 could have at Q cook offs or touring Tito's or Live Oak Brewing.The more the merrier
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 23, 2021, 01:17:45 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on August 23, 2021, 01:16:52 PM
Cost of Living,get on with it man imagine the fun you and 94 could have at Q cook offs or touring Tito's or Live Oak Brewing.The more the merrier
bwar likes bitter overly hopped beer.  We don't do that here in Texico.  He'd be miserable.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 23, 2021, 01:19:54 PM
no good beer in Texas, or I'd already be living there
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 23, 2021, 01:23:22 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 23, 2021, 01:17:45 PM
bwar likes bitter overly hopped beer.  We don't do that here in Texico.  He'd be miserable.


Man we're fetching top price for real estate,sell my 1,100 sq ft manor and head on down.Maybe I can move into the air stream until I find more fashionable digs. Cindy demands electricity how ever,I'll bring the Czech Pilsner,just leave my kidneys alone
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 23, 2021, 01:24:04 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on August 23, 2021, 12:22:59 PM
It's situations like this are the reason I won't conceal carry.To desire to bust a burning slug into some steaming pile who desperately deserves it would be more than I could surpress
if you are serious and Im not sure you are but I dont want you to conceal carry either if you are
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 23, 2021, 01:25:14 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 23, 2021, 01:19:54 PM
no good beer in Texas, or I'd already be living there
That's OK I lug down some Iron City or PBR if you ask nicely maybe some Black Label
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 23, 2021, 01:29:42 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 23, 2021, 01:24:04 PM
if you are serious and Im not sure you are but I dont want you to conceal carry either if you are
Sort of am - I have seen more people jeapordize others safety for incredibly beligerant,juvenile reasons - an eye for an eye.What if that asshole had slid into CD's car and killed/maimed him or his passenger? End up sipping dinner out of a straw fo r 20 yrs. In that situation "sorry" wouldn't suffice.As I said - I don't carry
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 23, 2021, 01:33:18 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on August 23, 2021, 01:29:42 PM
Sort of am - I have seen more people jeapordize others safety for incredibly beligerant,juvenile reasons - an eye for an eye.What if that asshole had slid into CD's car and killed/maimed him or his passenger? End up sipping dinner out of a straw fo r 20 yrs. In that situation "sorry" wouldn't suffice.As I said - I don't carry
good news keep not carrying
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 23, 2021, 01:34:01 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on August 23, 2021, 01:11:48 PM
You do realize people have certain reaction to not only food but meds right? I'm mean if you're already inoculated what's the worry,you should be grateful that herd is being thinned out.I know for a fact not group think that an individual did in fact die with hours of getting vaxed. I've taken every precaution sans the vax,has nothing to do with my IQ or where i attended school.Still wiping down surfaces in the car after shopping and the side door,not as vigilant as previouslythough. Also Big Pharma aren't libel so those people have no recourse who have had deadly reactions,hmm that's alright,frighten people who may have deadly symptoms not everyone is a rube or ill prepared
Out of curiosity, if you were faced with a mandate from your employer, or your state government, to get the vaccine or lose your job, would you get the shot?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 23, 2021, 01:37:32 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 23, 2021, 01:19:54 PM
no good beer in Texas, or I'd already be living there
Thank You For Your Support
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 23, 2021, 01:40:26 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on August 23, 2021, 01:23:22 PM
Man we're fetching top price for real estate,sell my 1,100 sq ft manor and head on down.Maybe I can move into the air stream until I find more fashionable digs. Cindy demands electricity how ever,I'll bring the Czech Pilsner,just leave my kidneys alone

Gonna be around 100 degrees for the next month or so, you cool with that?  The Airstream A/C can cool that down to about 85.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 23, 2021, 01:41:32 PM
85 ain't turrible

maybe down to 80 if ya build a makeshift shade over the airstream
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 23, 2021, 01:46:17 PM
OK knock yourself out!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 23, 2021, 01:56:15 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 23, 2021, 01:34:01 PM
Out of curiosity, if you were faced with a mandate from your employer, or your state government, to get the vaccine or lose your job, would you get the shot?

I'd lawyer up but seing as I semi retired last year but am actively appyling I might take the shot - might
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 23, 2021, 01:58:46 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 23, 2021, 01:40:26 PM
Gonna be around 100 degrees for the next month or so, you cool with that?  The Airstream A/C can cool that down to about 85.
Hell no the virus wafts around at higher temps,who wants that. Unless Weller 12 is available
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 23, 2021, 02:36:27 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on August 23, 2021, 01:56:15 PM
I'd lawyer up but seing as I semi retired last year but am actively appyling I might take the shot - might
I'm guessing this won't help..........................



Today, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved the first COVID-19 vaccine. The vaccine has been known as the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, and will now be marketed as Comirnaty (koe-mir’-na-tee), for the prevention of COVID-19 disease in individuals 16 years of age and older. The vaccine also continues to be available under emergency use authorization (EUA), including for individuals 12 through 15 years of age and for the administration of a third dose in certain immunocompromised individuals.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 23, 2021, 04:20:25 PM
Austin/Travis County might have peaked last week?  Fingers crossed.


(https://i.imgur.com/3jxDn0A.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 23, 2021, 05:18:23 PM
That's kinda looking similar to the data around my neck of the woods.

How is ATX on the Vax levels?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 23, 2021, 05:31:42 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 23, 2021, 05:18:23 PM
That's kinda looking similar to the data around my neck of the woods.

How is ATX on the Vax levels?
Pretty good, I think it's something like 60% of 12+ fully dosed, 70% with one.  Well above the state average which is pitifully low at ~46% total.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on August 24, 2021, 12:29:16 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 23, 2021, 12:09:02 PM

But her job is in a rheumatologist's office, ... She might not want the vaccine, but how would she feel if she ended up getting a COVID infection, passing it on to a vulnerable patient before she realized she had it, and then that patient died because he/she wasn't as young and healthy as she is?

When I had it I was in the doghouse at home. I thought sure my wife would get it but she had no sign of it. I could get sick and die, and while I would not handle that well, if I made someone else sick, that would be difficult guilt to live, or die with. That was constantly on my mind.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 24, 2021, 08:57:06 AM
International trends remain the same, UK "MIGHT" be peaking on second rise, maybe.  France looks to be coming down.  

Florida MIGHT be coming down, we all hope.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 24, 2021, 10:02:17 AM
Is it bad that now that we have widely available vaccination [in this country, at least] that I really don't give a crap about the numbers in each state? 

While breakthrough infections are possible, and serious breakthrough infections are possible but extremely rare, the bulk of the people affected chose not to protect themselves with the vaccine. I feel bad for them individually, as I don't want to see anyone in the ICU, or on a vent, or die. But the aggregate numbers just don't make an impact on me any longer...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 24, 2021, 10:08:35 AM
I care because it could preclude my travel plans.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 24, 2021, 10:11:26 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 24, 2021, 10:02:17 AM
Is it bad that now that we have widely available vaccination [in this country, at least] that I really don't give a crap about the numbers in each state?

While breakthrough infections are possible, and serious breakthrough infections are possible but extremely rare, the bulk of the people affected chose not to protect themselves with the vaccine. I feel bad for them individually, as I don't want to see anyone in the ICU, or on a vent, or die. But the aggregate numbers just don't make an impact on me any longer...


As long as government (and private) entities are using case counts to determine policies like occupancy, capacity, and masking, it will continue to affect me. That's really my primary concern with the total case numbers.

Also, as long as dumbass unvaxed jackwagons are getting unnecessarily sick and clogging up the hospitals and ICUs, it will continue to affect my community's ability to process ACTUAL medical emergencies that are NOT a result of an idiot making a selfish and stupid decision not to get vaccinated.

(As always, I'm not including in this commentary, people that are medically unable to get the vaccine.  That should go without saying.  But let's be honest, that's also just a tiny fraction of the population)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 24, 2021, 11:01:49 AM
I have two friends (they are married) that I know of that are anti-vax/anti MD. The husband has a severe case of shingles now - on his face, approaching his eyes.

And... he's going with a holistic "doctor" for treatment.

I'm not going to get into it with him. But... SMDH. WTF dood? You want to be blind??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 24, 2021, 11:28:54 AM
Quote from: utee94 on August 24, 2021, 10:11:26 AM
As long as government (and private) entities are using case counts to determine policies like occupancy, capacity, and masking, it will continue to affect me. That's really my primary concern with the total case numbers.

Also, as long as dumbass unvaxed jackwagons are getting unnecessarily sick and clogging up the hospitals and ICUs, it will continue to affect my community's ability to process ACTUAL medical emergencies that are NOT a result of an idiot making a selfish and stupid decision not to get vaccinated.

(As always, I'm not including in this commentary, people that are medically unable to get the vaccine.  That should go without saying.  But let's be honest, that's also just a tiny fraction of the population)
Yeah, but even here in California, we don't have occupancy/capacity limits or mandatory masking. I suppose they might up in LA County and the Bay Area, but they're wackoes up there. Where you live, they have rules that you can't mandate anything. And in heaven Florida it seems that the world doesn't even acknowledge the existence of COVID. So case numbers don't seem to be affecting most of us here at all, as it relates to policy. That ship has sailed.

Agreed regarding unvaxed jackwagons and clogging up ICUs though. 

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 24, 2021, 11:01:49 AM
I have two friends (they are married) that I know of that are anti-vax/anti MD. The husband has a severe case of shingles now - on his face, approaching his eyes.

And... he's going with a holistic "doctor" for treatment.

I'm not going to get into it with him. But... SMDH. WTF dood? You want to be blind??
I had shingles when I turned 40 and again this past summer. Luckily neither were aggressive cases and I treated them quickly. I'm paying for the shingles vaccine as soon as I can get it (supposed to wait 4 months post COVID vax) because I don't want it again. I don't think insurance will pay because I'm not old enough yet, but after two cases I'm not taking more chances.

I feel like we're at a strange place of privilege in America where people have such little memory of what suffering means that they can afford to believe that medicine can't be trusted but homeopathy is an answer for anything other than separating dollars from ones wallet. Dood needs to get himself some Valtrex and get it under control. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 24, 2021, 12:15:04 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 24, 2021, 11:28:54 AM
Yeah, but even here in California, we don't have occupancy/capacity limits or mandatory masking. I suppose they might up in LA County and the Bay Area, but they're wackoes up there. Where you live, they have rules that you can't mandate anything. And in heaven Florida it seems that the world doesn't even acknowledge the existence of COVID. So case numbers don't seem to be affecting most of us here at all, as it relates to policy. That ship has sailed.

Agreed regarding unvaxed jackwagons and clogging up ICUs though.
I had shingles when I turned 40 and again this past summer. Luckily neither were aggressive cases and I treated them quickly. I'm paying for the shingles vaccine as soon as I can get it (supposed to wait 4 months post COVID vax) because I don't want it again. I don't think insurance will pay because I'm not old enough yet, but after two cases I'm not taking more chances.

I feel like we're at a strange place of privilege in America where people have such little memory of what suffering means that they can afford to believe that medicine can't be trusted but homeopathy is an answer for anything other than separating dollars from ones wallet. Dood needs to get himself some Valtrex and get it under control.
Living here in Florida I can assure you that on the local news that’s just about all they talk about. Covid cases, getting vaccinated, where to get vaccinated, way to get vaccinated, it never ends.  Also many commercials running from government and celebrities telling people why they should get vaccinated.

Sometimes it’s hard to know the truth. For example I saw a story about a South Florida hospital in Miami that was filled to capacity in the ICU because of Covid cases. But then I saw somebody who works there publicly claiming that the ICU is only 70% full and the real issue is staff shortages, and that in “normal “times the ICU is 70 to 85% for anyway because that’s the only way they can make money.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 24, 2021, 12:40:30 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 24, 2021, 11:28:54 AM
Yeah, but even here in California, we don't have occupancy/capacity limits or mandatory masking. I suppose they might up in LA County and the Bay Area, but they're wackoes up there. Where you live, they have rules that you can't mandate anything. And in heaven Florida it seems that the world doesn't even acknowledge the existence of COVID. So case numbers don't seem to be affecting most of us here at all, as it relates to policy. That ship has sailed.

Agreed regarding unvaxed jackwagons and clogging up ICUs though.
I had shingles when I turned 40 and again this past summer. Luckily neither were aggressive cases and I treated them quickly. I'm paying for the shingles vaccine as soon as I can get it (supposed to wait 4 months post COVID vax) because I don't want it again. I don't think insurance will pay because I'm not old enough yet, but after two cases I'm not taking more chances.

I feel like we're at a strange place of privilege in America where people have such little memory of what suffering means that they can afford to believe that medicine can't be trusted but homeopathy is an answer for anything other than separating dollars from ones wallet. Dood needs to get himself some Valtrex and get it under control.
This isn't true in Texas.  All non-rural school districts in Texas are now ignoring the governor's ban, and have mandated masks, including all school-related sporting events and band concerts, indoors and out.  They are also limiting capacity to 25% for Austin school district sporting events.  Many local businesses are back to requiring masks and enforcing social distancing.

Thankfully no restaurants or bars are doing so around here, not yet anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 24, 2021, 01:07:52 PM
Don't believe everything you read about Florida Covid. Of course it's being made to look bad here...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 24, 2021, 01:34:42 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 24, 2021, 10:02:17 AM
Is it bad that now that we have widely available vaccination [in this country, at least] that I really don't give a crap about the numbers in each state?

While breakthrough infections are possible, and serious breakthrough infections are possible but extremely rare, the bulk of the people affected chose not to protect themselves with the vaccine. I feel bad for them individually, as I don't want to see anyone in the ICU, or on a vent, or die. But the aggregate numbers just don't make an impact on me any longer...
Vaccinated health-care workers are getting sick putting in long hours in ERs and ICUs.  In Tulsa, there's a 3-year-old girl fighting for her life in an ICU because her mother--an ER nurse--got an asymptomatic breakthrough COVID infection and brought it home.
The refuseniks aren't just killing themselves, they're killing others.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 24, 2021, 01:48:42 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 24, 2021, 01:34:42 PM
Vaccinated health-care workers are getting sick putting in long hours in ERs and ICUs.  In Tulsa, there's a 3-year-old girl fighting for her life in an ICU because her mother--an ER nurse--got an asymptomatic breakthrough COVID infection and brought it home.
The refuseniks aren't just killing themselves, they're killing others.
That is sad.    You hear of many stories like that.
but I always wonder- how do we know the mom got it from an unvaccinated person, given we now know vaccinated people transmit it?  Readily.

I also add- long hours in ICUs have been an issue because of staff shortages. I know this to be true from personal experience at several local hospitals here in Florida before the Delta variant even reared it’s ugly head, as well as family members who work in hospitals. 

So again, I always wonder when I hear these types of stories- what is behind them.

I guess my cynicism about the media is making it hard for me to take stuff like this as necessarily accurate. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 24, 2021, 01:52:03 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 24, 2021, 01:48:42 PM
I guess my cynicism about the media is making it hard for me to take stuff like this as necessarily accurate. 
I find it important to pose these sorts of questions.  I think often reporters are under time pressure and don't vette things, and at other times they hear a story they think will "sell" and run with it carelessly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 24, 2021, 02:18:26 PM
Here is an example. You can spin this anyway you want, my take is that he KNOWS about 1/4 of his population won't take the shots. So he's promoting another option for those people, to keep them from dying, and also for those who are elderly and vulnerable, even with being vaccinated. 

But that's now how the story is written.

DeSantis Has Tweeted About Monoclonal Treatment 30 Times in August, Vaccines Just Once (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/desantis-has-tweeted-about-monoclonal-treatment-30-times-in-august-vaccines-just-once/ar-AANGYS0?ocid=msedgntp)


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 24, 2021, 02:31:01 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 24, 2021, 02:18:26 PM
Here is an example. You can spin this anyway you want, my take is that he KNOWS about 1/4 of his population won't take the shots. So he's promoting another option for those people, to keep them from dying, and also for those who are elderly and vulnerable, even with being vaccinated.

But that's now how the story is written.

DeSantis Has Tweeted About Monoclonal Treatment 30 Times in August, Vaccines Just Once (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/desantis-has-tweeted-about-monoclonal-treatment-30-times-in-august-vaccines-just-once/ar-AANGYS0?ocid=msedgntp)



Perfect example.  Every time I see him on local news he is begging people to get vaccinated.  Virtually every time I turn my head I hit the end of my nose on a place where you can get vaccinated without an appointment. It’s everywhere!   

But there is a narrative to drive home- so that’s not befitting of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 24, 2021, 03:09:43 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 24, 2021, 01:48:42 PM
That is sad.    You hear of many stories like that.
but I always wonder- how do we know the mom got it from an unvaccinated person, given we now know vaccinated people transmit it?  Readily.

I also add- long hours in ICUs have been an issue because of staff shortages. I know this to be true from personal experience at several local hospitals here in Florida before the Delta variant even reared it’s ugly head, as well as family members who work in hospitals. 

So again, I always wonder when I hear these types of stories- what is behind them.

I guess my cynicism about the media is making it hard for me to take stuff like this as necessarily accurate. 
I don't think it matters...

It's true that vaccinated people can have breakthrough infections, and they can transmit the virus. 

I also think we know that breakthrough infections in the vaccinated population are at a much lower rate than infections among the unvaccinated. 

Your risk from this virus has to do with your own protection (vaccination, other NPI) multiplied by the likelihood you're going to come in contact with someone who is infected. 

If vaccination rates go up, case rates should go down--even with Delta. Thus the right side of that equation gets smaller. You can say that's not true for an ICU nurse, but fewer unvaccinated cases will mean fewer hospitalizations / ICU visits. 

As with anything, we don't know where the mom got it. We know relative risks and relative likelihood. Those go down as vaccination rates go up. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 24, 2021, 03:12:34 PM
Unvaccinated 29 times more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19, CDC study says | TheHill (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/569199-unvaccinated-29-times-more-likely-to-be-hospitalized-with-covid-19-cdc)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 24, 2021, 03:17:08 PM
Apparently my wife is hearing that people (at least here) are starting to hoard, and Costco may implement limits on paper goods again.

Morons.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 24, 2021, 03:20:23 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 24, 2021, 03:09:43 PM
I don't think it matters...

It's true that vaccinated people can have breakthrough infections, and they can transmit the virus.

I also think we know that breakthrough infections in the vaccinated population are at a much lower rate than infections among the unvaccinated.

Your risk from this virus has to do with your own protection (vaccination, other NPI) multiplied by the likelihood you're going to come in contact with someone who is infected.

If vaccination rates go up, case rates should go down--even with Delta. Thus the right side of that equation gets smaller. You can say that's not true for an ICU nurse, but fewer unvaccinated cases will mean fewer hospitalizations / ICU visits.

As with anything, we don't know where the mom got it. We know relative risks and relative likelihood. Those go down as vaccination rates go up.
I was responding to the summary of CWs post.
Saying basically that the unvaccinated are killing others. 

my point being- in that scenario nobody died( and hopefully won’t), and it seems hard for someone to come to that conclusion when there is no way to know that.  Seems like hype- kind of like a lot of what the media is doing. ( all sides)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 24, 2021, 03:36:12 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 24, 2021, 03:20:23 PM
I was responding to the summary of CWs post.
Saying basically that the unvaccinated are killing others. 

my point being- in that scenario nobody died( and hopefully won’t), and it seems hard for someone to come to that conclusion when there is no way to know that.  Seems like hype- kind of like a lot of what the media is doing. ( all sides)
Fair enough... His final statement was that the refuseniks are killing others, not just themselves. And I see your point that even those who are vaccinated might be killing others.

I suppose I'm somewhere in the middle. Being vaccinated, I don't want to wear a mask any more. I don't wear it unless I'm in places where it's required (either due to regulation, such as when I traveled or was in a healthcare setting, or due to a business' voluntary policies). 

If I wore a mask, I might protect someone who is vulnerable if I have an asymptomatic breakthrough infection and I'm exposing others. And that vulnerable person may be vaccinated, or may be unable [rather than unwilling] to be vaccinated for a legitimate medical reason or (in the example CW gave) due to being too young to be eligible. 

That said, the relative risk of me doing so and hurting someone is MUCH lower than that of a refusenik. And the relative risk of me being exposed to the virus and potentially getting a breakthrough infection would be MUCH lower if the refuseniks actually got the shot too. 

Those who refuse the vaccine are IMHO a huge reason why we're in a Delta spike. Not lack of masks, not lack of social distancing, not anything else. The refuseniks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 24, 2021, 03:48:41 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 24, 2021, 03:36:12 PM
Fair enough... His final statement was that the refuseniks are killing others, not just themselves. And I see your point that even those who are vaccinated might be killing others.

I suppose I'm somewhere in the middle. Being vaccinated, I don't want to wear a mask any more. I don't wear it unless I'm in places where it's required (either due to regulation, such as when I traveled or was in a healthcare setting, or due to a business' voluntary policies).

If I wore a mask, I might protect someone who is vulnerable if I have an asymptomatic breakthrough infection and I'm exposing others. And that vulnerable person may be vaccinated, or may be unable [rather than unwilling] to be vaccinated for a legitimate medical reason or (in the example CW gave) due to being too young to be eligible.

That said, the relative risk of me doing so and hurting someone is MUCH lower than that of a refusenik. And the relative risk of me being exposed to the virus and potentially getting a breakthrough infection would be MUCH lower if the refuseniks actually got the shot too.

Those who refuse the vaccine are IMHO a huge reason why we're in a Delta spike. Not lack of masks, not lack of social distancing, not anything else. The refuseniks.
A given. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 24, 2021, 04:34:46 PM
https://twitter.com/FanSided/status/1430221381791358978

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 24, 2021, 06:04:26 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 24, 2021, 04:34:46 PM
https://twitter.com/FanSided/status/1430221381791358978


I like it!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 24, 2021, 06:32:42 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 24, 2021, 03:12:34 PM
Unvaccinated 29 times more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19, CDC study says | TheHill (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/569199-unvaccinated-29-times-more-likely-to-be-hospitalized-with-covid-19-cdc)
CDC says - says it all,most people still take precautions I never stopped wearing masks,washing surfaces or social distancing.Many on this board have blame preassigned to those who haven't gotten vaxed - for legitimate  reasons.People who have been vaccinated 2-3 X are the crusaders parading around totally ignorant of the fact that they could very well be transmitting regardless if their vaccine helped their anti bodies or not.And why the hell are they saying getting a 3rd?Probably because the 1st 2 were not all that so it's spun a variant - maybe they've been bullshitting people so long medicine has turned to politicians to learn how to spin failure.No one knows so act prudently
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 24, 2021, 07:00:03 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 24, 2021, 03:20:23 PM
I was responding to the summary of CWs post.
Saying basically that the unvaccinated are killing others. 

my point being- in that scenario nobody died( and hopefully won’t), and it seems hard for someone to come to that conclusion when there is no way to know that.  Seems like hype- kind of like a lot of what the media is doing. ( all sides)
Thank You the unvaxed are chain smoking crack heads who share needles and hand out used masks.Also they stampede to meet mothers taking toddlers to day care and kids getting off the kindergarden Bus - just to give them a group hug.Yup busted, and here I thought this would be a lot of fun
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 24, 2021, 07:09:10 PM
What's the status of the overwhelming majority of COVID patients in our nation's ORs and ICUs.

I'll end the suspense--it's that they are not vaccinated when they very easily could be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 24, 2021, 07:10:04 PM
Ok, lots to unpack here... Gonna have to do this with an old-school blog-style Fisking...

Quote from: MrNubbz on August 24, 2021, 06:32:42 PM
CDC says - says it all
Starting off strong! First five words convey that you have already dismissed any evidence because it comes from the CDC. Pretty much shuts down debate right there... "I'm not going to accept any evidence you bring, because I'm going to outright say that whatever source it came from is suspect."

Strong first move.


Quote
,most people still take precautions I never stopped wearing masks,washing surfaces or social distancing.
I dare say that you're a unicorn, MrN. Most unvaxxed never started wearing masks or social distancing. Speaking from personal experience--people in my own life. They bristled at the idea of masks from the start, basically gathered with others almost to flaunt that they were doing it.


Quote
Many on this board have blame preassigned to those who haven't gotten vaxed - for legitimate  reasons.
Who defines what is a legitimate reason? 

Let's ask the CDC what's a legitimate reason? Oh... Wait...


Quote
People who have been vaccinated 2-3 X are the crusaders parading around totally ignorant of the fact that they could very well be transmitting regardless if their vaccine helped their anti bodies or not.
No, we get it. Heck, I think it was within 1-3 of my last posts in this thread where I talked about it. 

That said, all the evidence--wait, sorry, maybe that stuff comes from the CDC, but I'm gonna have to continue--suggests that breakthrough infections within the vaxxed are actually pretty rare relative to those who are unvaxxed. So, like I said, the chance that I'm going to get an asymptomatic breakthrough infection is much lower than if you do. And the chance that I get said infection would be much lower if you'd get the damn shot. 

So yeah, that's why we blame those who haven't gotten vaxxed. Because I did ALL the sh!t I was supposed to do, for over a year, in order that I could get the vax and stop wearing the damn mask. And now you're going to reverse shame me for not wearing a mask when YOU haven't gotten the vax? I wouldn't need the mask if you'd just get the shot. 


Quote
And why the hell are they saying getting a 3rd?Probably because the 1st 2 were not all that so it's spun a variant - 
So now you're blaming the vaxxed for spinning a variant without evidence, while basically again intimating that all evidence that the vaccine works must be suspect--"because the 1st 2 were not all that." 


Quote
maybe they've been bullshitting people so long medicine has turned to politicians to learn how to spin failure.
Medicine. What a crock, right? 

All medicine must be deemed untrustworthy to justify not getting the vax...


Quote
No one knows so act prudently
Oh, I am acting prudently. That's why I got the vax. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 24, 2021, 08:26:53 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 24, 2021, 07:09:10 PM
What's the status of the overwhelming majority of COVID patients in our nation's ORs and ICUs.

I'll end the suspense--it's that they are not vaccinated when they very easily could be.
Yep.  Bottom line.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 24, 2021, 09:10:01 PM
Mr. N-- If you want to act prudently and wear a mask, that's good.

Getting vaccinated is orders of magnitude more effective than wearing the mask.

So if you really want to be prudent, get the vax.

And the added bonus is then you don't even need to wear the mask.

Get the vax.  Please.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 24, 2021, 09:12:55 PM
Look-- I'm the person who thought we'd never have an effective vaccine.

And we're not even halfway into my 18-24 months post-vax evaluation period, so I could still be right.

But for now, I'm wrong.  And I'm delighted to admit it.

We have been given the boon of an effective vax.  It's up to us to use that to our benefit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 25, 2021, 07:40:11 AM
My anti-vax shingles buddy... Looks like he might lose his left eye based on the picture he sent me today.

He is going to see and MD today. Should have went Sunday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 25, 2021, 08:09:58 AM
Some folks loathe what they don't understand and find excuses not to make any effort.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 25, 2021, 08:11:47 AM
France appears to be declining, and Florida does as well now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 25, 2021, 08:12:40 AM
What would have happened with NO vaccine?  I don't know obviously, India is a strange example I think of that, and they fell off again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 25, 2021, 08:55:41 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 25, 2021, 08:12:40 AM
What would have happened with NO vaccine?  I don't know obviously, India is a strange example I think of that, and they fell off again.
It's tough to tell, but I think we're seeing what Delta can do to the UNvaccinated with half the country vaxed, and it's just as bad or worse than what was happening a year ago with zero vaccinations, so I suspect we'd be in pretty bad shape.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 25, 2021, 09:08:31 AM
I've read several places that natural immunity is better than being vaccinated. 

So... those who are vaccinated and still contract Covid will be in a good spot. They most likely will not become severely ill or need to go to the ICU, while gaining even better immunity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on August 25, 2021, 09:14:40 AM
And those who got COVID with the initial virus, and got vaccinated anyway (i.e. my in-laws) will be in really good shape going forward.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 25, 2021, 09:36:47 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on August 25, 2021, 09:14:40 AM
And those who got COVID with the initial virus, and got vaccinated anyway (i.e. my in-laws) will be in really good shape going forward.


Do we know this for sure? That's the boat I'm in, but I was thinking it would better to be reversed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 25, 2021, 09:39:59 AM
I haven't seen anything definitive about natural immunity being better than vaccinated immunity.  Certainly nothing peer-reviewed.  That would be a hard study to implement, since there are so many confounding variables in your control group.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 25, 2021, 10:12:16 AM
This is an interesting (long) read.

Immunity to SARS‐CoV‐2 induced by infection or vaccination - Castro Dopico - - Journal of Internal Medicine - Wiley Online Library (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/joim.13372)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 25, 2021, 11:55:34 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 25, 2021, 10:12:16 AM
This is an interesting (long) read.

Immunity to SARS‐CoV‐2 induced by infection or vaccination - Castro Dopico - - Journal of Internal Medicine - Wiley Online Library (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/joim.13372)

Good stuff, Badge. Thanks for sharing.

Per 94's point, I think the paper underscores that there is a lot we don't know about durability of immunity as of yet, and we know less about durability of vaccine-induced immunity than naturally-acquired immunity, because the vaccines are much newer. 

It certainly does suggest that vaccination after natural infection generates significant immune response, more than the vaccine itself.

However it doesn't say anything about breakthrough infection or exposure to the virus after vaccination. I personally wonder if encountering the virus now, after having been vaccinated, would improve immunity or durability of immunity in any way due to the natural exposure on top of vaccine-induced immune response... 

If you find anything else, please share. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 25, 2021, 11:58:09 AM
I've got more, but I need to read prior to posting. That takes a lot of time.

The bottom line here is that we are flying a plane and building the plane at the same time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 25, 2021, 12:15:58 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 25, 2021, 11:58:09 AM
I've got more, but I need to read prior to posting. That takes a lot of time.

The bottom line here is that we are flying a plane and building the plane at the same time.
Agreed. I've heard a lot of people, though, state somewhat definitively that naturally-acquired immunity is better than vaccine-induced immunity. I'm wondering, much like 94, if there's any actual scientific evidence for that assertion. 

Those people tend as far as I've seen to also be heavily congruous with the group who choose not to get the vaccine. Such that I suspect many are using it as justification for not getting the vaccine. 

Hence actually getting to the bottom of it from a scientific perspective is important...

As is whether there is a benefit to exposure to COVID post-vaccination that confers the same benefits of natural immunity, if naturally-acquired immunity is superior.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 25, 2021, 12:33:58 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 24, 2021, 07:10:04 PM
Starting off strong! First five words convey that you have already dismissed any evidence because it comes from the CDC. Pretty much shuts down debate right there... "I'm not going to accept any evidence you bring, because I'm going to outright say that whatever source it came from is suspect.That response was to another poster basically stating the unaxed were selfish killers.(sarcasm)I thought that was obvious . After the vacillating(that's being generous) told last year by the CDC/media anyone should give them a chance?Remember what NEO Buckeye stated last April 2020 I believe that his RN daughter said they were tagging deaths as almost all covid(later officials admitting it).And I stated months later the same conclusions not just from a family friend who is in fact an RN at the Cleveland Clinic.The reasoning was to make up for funding lost from non life threatening surgeries.Well just come out and say that why tag everything in the middle of an epidemic - that defied not only logic but sullied trust

I dare say that you're a unicorn, MrN. Most unvaxxed never started wearing masks or social distancing. Speaking from personal experience--people in my own life. They bristled at the idea of masks from the start, basically gathered with others almost to flaunt that they were doing it.Okay,ya got me, I(we) certainly wouldn't flaunt it that's assinine .I've had one of my very closest and dear friends pass 8-16-20 from covid -he 12 yrs previous had bloodclots on his lungs - so in the high risk catagory.On the flip side at the food pantry where I volunteer a member I've come know very well over the last 3 1/2 yrs lost her cousin this April who had a reaction to the shot,passing on the very same day after getting vaxed - because of social urging.

 I know 3 people as I'm typing this who have had nothing ,but would be described as physical decline since they've gotten vaxinated - all over 60 I might add but were by no means frail or invalid.One more serious than I'd expect - all 3 said don't get the vax.On the flip side(again) many have been told thru blood tests they had virus - and they never knew it. So reality exists from both stand points. Since I can only remember once in my adult life having influenza really bad probably from staying with mom a lot in the hospital with a broken hip.Doctor said i most definitely got it there as i spent many nights there as she was having problems

So now after 1-2-3 vaxes that are adding up I'm simply trusting myself and that's how I'm playing my hand by erring on the side of caution


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 25, 2021, 03:10:30 PM
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/kathy-hochul-adds-12k-deaths-to-covid-death-count

 This is NOT political.   No “ side”
Of the isle is innocent here. 

Just more evidence of why there is such widespread mistrust out there.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on August 25, 2021, 05:55:37 PM
https://theconversation.com/are-vaccines-making-viruses-more-dangerous-45424

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/leaky-vaccines-can-produce-stronger-versions-of-viruses-072715
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on August 25, 2021, 06:01:58 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 25, 2021, 03:10:30 PM
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/kathy-hochul-adds-12k-deaths-to-covid-death-count

 This is NOT political.  No “ side”
Of the isle is innocent here.

Just more evidence of why there is such widespread mistrust out there. 
Probably just readjusting it to the real count seeing as that piece of shit Cuomo passed legislation which gave healthcare companies & nursing home companies immunity from lawsuits- then he essentially forced nursing homes to take in COVID positive patients- a disease which kills mainly the elderly and of which roughly 50% OF ALL DEATHS in the country have been nursing home deaths- then he tried to cover it up and was caught fudging the coronavirus death counts in NY to make it look like it wasn't a disaster and the epicenter of the virus- which it clearly was.

Edited by utee94: I left the first paragraph, and cut the second and third, which were entirely political and unrelated to Coronavirus.  If you feel compelled to discuss that, take it somewhere else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 25, 2021, 06:04:39 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on August 25, 2021, 05:55:37 PM
https://theconversation.com/are-vaccines-making-viruses-more-dangerous-45424

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/leaky-vaccines-can-produce-stronger-versions-of-viruses-072715
That's great. An article from 2015 and one from sometime earlier than 2019 but is listed as being updated in 2019... Both dealing with chickens.

Is there any evidence that the COVID vaccine is "leaky" in this sense?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on August 25, 2021, 06:09:38 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 25, 2021, 06:04:39 PM
That's great. An article from 2015 and one from sometime earlier than 2019 but is listed as being updated in 2019... Both dealing with chickens.

Is there any evidence that the COVID vaccine is "leaky" in this sense?
It absolutely is "leaky". The COVID vaccines are "leaky" and not "perfect" by definition. Perfect vaccines prevent illness and prevent transmission. The COVID vaccines do not prevent illness nor do they prevent transmission. There is case after case of "breakthrough" infections where people who are fully vaccinated get sick and/or transmit the virus. 


These less-than-perfect vaccines create a “leaky” barrier against the virus. Vaccinated individuals may get sick but have less severe symptoms, but the virus survives long enough to transmit to others, which allows it to survive and spread throughout a population.

“Our research demonstrates that the use of leaky vaccines can promote the evolution of nastier ‘hot’ viral strains that put unvaccinated individuals at greater risk,” Nair said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on August 25, 2021, 06:14:12 PM
Because these vaccines are leaky- the more we vaccinate- the more we put the unvaccinated at greater risk from catching a beefed up super-bug strain that will hit like a ton of bricks and make the previous strains look like mickey mouse.

For some reason this isn't being talked about. At all. It should be. It gives huge incentive for people to go get vaccinated. I was on the fence- but reading that scared the shit out of me. I'm going to get the vax.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 25, 2021, 06:32:11 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on August 25, 2021, 06:09:38 PM
It absolutely is "leaky". The COVID vaccines are "leaky" and not "perfect" by definition. Perfect vaccines prevent illness and prevent transmission. The COVID vaccines do not prevent illness nor do they prevent transmission. There is case after case of "breakthrough" infections where people who are fully vaccinated get sick and/or transmit the virus.


These less-than-perfect vaccines create a “leaky” barrier against the virus. Vaccinated individuals may get sick but have less severe symptoms, but the virus survives long enough to transmit to others, which allows it to survive and spread throughout a population.

“Our research demonstrates that the use of leaky vaccines can promote the evolution of nastier ‘hot’ viral strains that put unvaccinated individuals at greater risk,” Nair said.

Quote from: Mdot21 on August 25, 2021, 06:14:12 PM
Because these vaccines are leaky- the more we vaccinate- the more we put the unvaccinated at greater risk from catching a beefed up super-bug strain that will hit like a ton of bricks and make the previous strains look like mickey mouse.

For some reason this isn't being talked about. At all. It should be. It gives huge incentive for people to go get vaccinated. I was on the fence- but reading that scared the shit out of me. I'm going to get the vax.
No vaccine is perfect. Some people don't have immune systems that respond to vaccination. Vaccination is a numbers game. The goal is to reduce prevalence in a population such that those who don't have proper immune response to the vaccine don't encounter the virus.

We've seen natural immunity to COVID, people who have actually had the virus and tested positive, have reinfection. It's rare, as are breakthrough infections. But immunity, whether naturally-acquired or vaccine-induced, isn't perfect. 

When we look at other diseases for which we have vaccines, we see similar things. Two doses of MMR are only 97% effective against measles (https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/mmr/public/index.html). That means that as many as 3% of people who are vaccinated but encounter measles in the wild would actually contract the disease.

The good COVID vaccines, Pfizer and Moderna, are around 95% effective two weeks after the second dose at preventing symptomatic disease. So potentially less effective at preventing asymptomatic disease that would show up positive via testing. 

The big difference is that measles is mostly rare in the US, so the 3% who might be susceptible to it will likely NEVER encounter it. That's because almost everyone in the US has been vaccinated. That's not the case with COVID, because of the huge proportion of the population who is unvaccinated. 

If you want to claim that the COVID vaccine is a "leaky" vaccine, you're gonna have to bring better evidence. Not saying you're wrong, but nothing you've said so far justifies it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 25, 2021, 06:38:06 PM
But hey, if it's fear of an even worse strain than Delta that's driving MDot to get vaccinated, that's all good too.  I wish there were more like him.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 25, 2021, 08:27:40 PM
Florida is first state where deaths higher in this Covid wave than previous ones

(https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/YYftPELNOEiQQ5Qe03r_hg--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTcwNTtoPTQ3MC4yMjk0OTIxODc1O2NmPXdlYnA-/https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/1eBYbSLf9jHZmn0XQU3rbA--~B/aD02ODM7dz0xMDI0O2FwcGlkPXl0YWNoeW9u/https://media.zenfs.com/en/the_independent_577/3137683dc08781c6fb8eed368dfe8697)
Florida is first state where deaths higher in this Covid wave than previous ones

Jade Bremner
August 24, 2021, 7:37 AM·2 min read

Florida (https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/florida) now has record numbers of Covid-19 (https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/covid-19) cases and deaths, surpassing figures from other points in the pandemic.


According to John’s Hopkins data (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/us/florida), in July 2020 cases peaked at around 11,870 and 185 deaths, over a seven-day average, then peaked again in January 2021 with 17,991 cases of Covid-19 and 175 deaths in a seven day period. On 23 August 2021, cases shot up to 37,685 and 297 deaths.

Florida is now the epicentre of the US’s coronavirus pandemic (https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/coronavirus-pandemic), as the country struggles to get a grip of the contagious Delta (https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/delta) variant. According to data from the US Department of Health, ICU bed capacity currently sits at 93.2 per cent in Florida (https://www.wesh.com/article/florida-hospitals-stretched-to-their-limits-report-says/37342300). States with low uptakes of the vaccine have been particularly harder hit by the Delta variant.

Governor Ron DeSantis (https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/ron-desantis) issued an executive order (https://www.flgov.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Executive-Order-21-175.pdf) in the state in July prohibiting mask mandates (https://www.flgov.com/2021/07/30/governor-desantis-florida-parents-are-free-to-choose/) in schools. “The federal government has no right to tell parents that in order for their kids to attend school in person, they must be forced to wear a mask all day, every day,” said Mr DeSantis.

“We know that masks are a simple and effective way to help prevent virus spread, and from a medical perspective it makes absolutely zero sense to discourage their use,” Dr Bernard Ashby, head of Florida’s progressive Committee to Protect Health Care, told the Associated Press.

Mr DeSantis also said there could be financial ramifications for educators who enforce mask-wearing in schools, to which President Joe Biden (https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/joe-biden) responded: “If a governor wants to cut the pay of a hard-working education leader who requires masks in the classroom, the money from the American Rescue Plan can be used to pay that person’s salary.”

More than 70 “exhausted” doctors in Palm Beach County, Florida, gathered to tell press and the local community to get vaccinated on Monday. “The vaccine still remains the most effective and reliable way to stop this madness,” said infectious disease specialist Dr Leslie Diaz. “We are exhausted,” said internal medicine specialist Dr Rupesh Dharia. “Our patience and resources are running low, and we need your help.”

There have been a total of 3,071,489 Covid cases in Florida to date and 42,252 deaths as a result of the disease. More than 52 per cent of the state’s population has been fully vaccinated. According to the CDC, more than 50 per cent of the entire US population has been fully vaccinated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 25, 2021, 08:50:25 PM
He's a great governor, I've been told.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 25, 2021, 09:03:58 PM
There are twenty other states that have a higher death per 1,000,000 pop then Florida

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 25, 2021, 09:07:26 PM
The article is comparing present FL to past FL.  
The dead people can't read your post.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 25, 2021, 09:09:51 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 25, 2021, 09:07:26 PM
The article is comparing present FL to past FL. 
The dead people can't read your post.
youre such an ass 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 25, 2021, 09:16:31 PM
I apologize.
So were you being optimistic with your post and suggesting things aren't so bad there?  Or were you trying to purposely deceive the reader by sharing a statistic that has nothing to do with what the article said?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 25, 2021, 09:23:59 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 25, 2021, 08:27:40 PM
Florida is first state where deaths higher in this Covid wave than previous ones

(https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/YYftPELNOEiQQ5Qe03r_hg--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTcwNTtoPTQ3MC4yMjk0OTIxODc1O2NmPXdlYnA-/https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/1eBYbSLf9jHZmn0XQU3rbA--~B/aD02ODM7dz0xMDI0O2FwcGlkPXl0YWNoeW9u/https://media.zenfs.com/en/the_independent_577/3137683dc08781c6fb8eed368dfe8697)
Florida is first state where deaths higher in this Covid wave than previous ones

Jade Bremner
August 24, 2021, 7:37 AM·2 min read

Florida (https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/florida) now has record numbers of Covid-19 (https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/covid-19) cases and deaths, surpassing figures from other points in the pandemic.


According to John’s Hopkins data (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/us/florida), in July 2020 cases peaked at around 11,870 and 185 deaths, over a seven-day average, then peaked again in January 2021 with 17,991 cases of Covid-19 and 175 deaths in a seven day period. On 23 August 2021, cases shot up to 37,685 and 297 deaths.

Florida is now the epicentre of the US’s coronavirus pandemic (https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/coronavirus-pandemic), as the country struggles to get a grip of the contagious Delta (https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/delta) variant. According to data from the US Department of Health, ICU bed capacity currently sits at 93.2 per cent in Florida (https://www.wesh.com/article/florida-hospitals-stretched-to-their-limits-report-says/37342300). States with low uptakes of the vaccine have been particularly harder hit by the Delta variant.

Governor Ron DeSantis (https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/ron-desantis) issued an executive order (https://www.flgov.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Executive-Order-21-175.pdf) in the state in July prohibiting mask mandates (https://www.flgov.com/2021/07/30/governor-desantis-florida-parents-are-free-to-choose/) in schools. “The federal government has no right to tell parents that in order for their kids to attend school in person, they must be forced to wear a mask all day, every day,” said Mr DeSantis.

“We know that masks are a simple and effective way to help prevent virus spread, and from a medical perspective it makes absolutely zero sense to discourage their use,” Dr Bernard Ashby, head of Florida’s progressive Committee to Protect Health Care, told the Associated Press.

Mr DeSantis also said there could be financial ramifications for educators who enforce mask-wearing in schools, to which President Joe Biden (https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/joe-biden) responded: “If a governor wants to cut the pay of a hard-working education leader who requires masks in the classroom, the money from the American Rescue Plan can be used to pay that person’s salary.”

More than 70 “exhausted” doctors in Palm Beach County, Florida, gathered to tell press and the local community to get vaccinated on Monday. “The vaccine still remains the most effective and reliable way to stop this madness,” said infectious disease specialist Dr Leslie Diaz. “We are exhausted,” said internal medicine specialist Dr Rupesh Dharia. “Our patience and resources are running low, and we need your help.”

There have been a total of 3,071,489 Covid cases in Florida to date and 42,252 deaths as a result of the disease. More than 52 per cent of the state’s population has been fully vaccinated. According to the CDC, more than 50 per cent of the entire US population has been fully vaccinated.
I guess you could somehow make an argument that this post isn’t totally political.  Maybe a weak one.

Quoting a flaming liberal from a liberal place like Newsweek though?

It’s as if you believe you can show correlation between the spike in Florida, that began long before Desantis’ executive order, and anything he has said or done.

Of course you can’t, because obviously- given Florida’s vaccination rate which is ( and was) in the better half ranking of the states.

But it makes for a good political narrative if that’s what your after.  I would wager though, that most here won’t sway from their position whatever it might be because it is so easy to see through this kind of crappy media stuff.

I definitely get the feeling the daily false narratives and attacks indicate some kind of fear of him.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 25, 2021, 09:28:22 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 25, 2021, 09:16:31 PM
I apologize.
So were you being optimistic with your post and suggesting things aren't so bad there?  Or were you trying to purposely deceive the reader by sharing a statistic that has nothing to do with what the article said?
Well he is looking at the entire picture- as he should, as opposed to cherry picking liberal authors and combining them with unrelated political narratives. 

so for example- several of those Palm Beach medical folks have gone public and said the real issue is staff shortages- and was before the Delta spike. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 25, 2021, 09:40:42 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 25, 2021, 09:16:31 PM
I apologize.
So were you being optimistic with your post and suggesting things aren't so bad there?  Or were you trying to purposely deceive the reader by sharing a statistic that has nothing to do with what the article said?
ok I'll play


the article was comparing Florida to Florida which is kind of one sided

there isnt a state where this type of analysis would look good

second the number of positive cases really means little

the important stat has to do with deaths and ICU usage 

my point was that Florida still has a relatively low death count considering its population and the ICU usage is no where near as bad as previous periods of last summer and Dec to Jan

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 25, 2021, 09:42:50 PM
number of positive cases really means little

___________________________________

true, and has always been true
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 25, 2021, 10:57:51 PM
Who said otherwise?
.
longhorn, what I'm afraid of is that you're not taking into consideration that even an equal number of deaths now compared to last year is worse.  Why?  Some radical lefty narrative?  No, sorry.  Because of a plain, logical context:  all the people who died last year are gone.  All of the old people, fat people, etc.  
So those aren't the ones dying now, but there's as many or more dying now.......that's worse.  See?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 25, 2021, 11:09:52 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 25, 2021, 10:57:51 PM
Who said otherwise?
.
longhorn, what I'm afraid of is that you're not taking into consideration that even an equal number of deaths now compared to last year is worse.  Why?  Some radical lefty narrative?  No, sorry.  Because of a plain, logical context:  all the people who died last year are gone.  All of the old people, fat people, etc. 
So those aren't the ones dying now, but there's as many or more dying now.......that's worse.  See?


It is. It’s horrible.  I have now been to several memorials, only recently.  It Sucks! Not vaccinated.

So what does this have to do with the government?  Vaccine rates are better than many, many states that have not seen the delta spikes. 

Before the spike in Delta started, and even now, there really is little in Florida much different as far as masks, what’s open, what’s closed, etc.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 25, 2021, 11:30:26 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 25, 2021, 10:57:51 PM
Who said otherwise?
.
longhorn, what I'm afraid of is that you're not taking into consideration that even an equal number of deaths now compared to last year is worse.  Why?  Some radical lefty narrative?  No, sorry.  Because of a plain, logical context:  all the people who died last year are gone.  All of the old people, fat people, etc. 
So those aren't the ones dying now, but there's as many or more dying now.......that's worse.  See?


thats my point

the number of daily deaths is way lower then the last two surges

not saying any death is good but only the media plays up the case count but does not mention that ICU usage and the deaths have decreased a lot
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 26, 2021, 12:36:38 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 25, 2021, 09:42:50 PM
number of positive cases really means little

___________________________________

true, and has always been true
Has not always been true. Pre vaccine, cases were a reliable proxy for deaths with roughly a 3 week lag.

That changed post vaccine. 

Thus it has not always been true.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 26, 2021, 03:59:03 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 25, 2021, 11:30:26 PM
thats my point

the number of daily deaths is way lower then the last two surges

not saying any death is good but only the media plays up the case count but does not mention that ICU usage and the deaths have decreased a lot
The 2nd paragraph specifies FL deaths are more now that they were last summer. 

 More people are dying now than were dying a year ago there DESPITE the initial wave clearing out much of the most susceptible. 

Edited buy utee94 to remove unnecessary and off-topic political talk
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 26, 2021, 04:00:22 AM
I have to admit, I now realize the reason I glaze over things in my posts is probably directly related to the fact that even when I spell things out, it's lost on the blind.
So why bother?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 26, 2021, 06:37:39 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 26, 2021, 04:00:22 AM
I have to admit, I now realize the reason I glaze over things in my posts is probably directly related to the fact that even when I spell things out, it's lost on the blind.
So why bother?
Just because a person doesn’t see what you see it does not mean they are blind. Maybe what you see isn’t real.

you are posting political comments in this thread and so I’ve asked you respectfully to connect the dots. What does the policy in Florida have to do, either directly or indirectly with the Delta spike in Florida?  What facts or data could you present to support your argument that it is specific policy in Florida which is clearly what you’ve been trying to say?

Edited by utee94 to focus question on policy. I get it that you were responding to OAM, but this is a simple edit you could have made yourself, and this is the way we can focus the discussion on relevant topics that are in-bounds for this thread. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 26, 2021, 07:27:08 AM
Bent freaks in alternate Universes seldom do
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 26, 2021, 06:37:39 AM
Just because a person doesn’t see what you see it does not mean they are blind. Maybe what you see isn’t real.
Bent freaks in alternate Universes seldom understand
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 26, 2021, 08:12:59 AM
Talking about case rates and death rates in various states, is within scope.

Ascribing political blame is not.

This is really simple stuff.  Get it, or get out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 26, 2021, 08:18:49 AM
Trends in Europe continuing.  Florida had a one day spike up, so hard to read, Georgia the same.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 26, 2021, 08:22:49 AM
OAM-- I deleted your post.  You can try again without politics.  Feel free to discuss policy.

For the masses-- Policy discussion is fine and can be very productive IMO.  But discussing assumptions or assertions about political philosophy behind any policy, is not for this thread.  In Other News is the place for that, if you must.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 26, 2021, 08:52:05 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 26, 2021, 12:36:38 AM
Has not always been true. Pre vaccine, cases were a reliable proxy for deaths with roughly a 3 week lag.

That changed post vaccine.

Thus it has not always been true.
reliable proxy?

perhaps when it comes to long term care facilities

I'm not convinced

hospitalizations and deaths were always much more important in my opinion

if you want to grow the number of cases, simply grow testing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 26, 2021, 09:00:46 AM
I think there was a period of time when cases were pretty strongly correlated as a leading indicator for hospitalization/ICU/death.

Early on in 2020, that wasn't true, because there just wasn't enough testing going on.  

And since the vaccine became prevalent, they have also been somewhat decoupled.

But through the middle-to-end of 2020, they seemed reasonably linked enough to use cases as a proxy for impending hospitalization/ICU/death.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 26, 2021, 09:08:55 AM
reasonably, sure

but, hospitalization/ICU/death was always the target of flattening the curve and much more important

a huge or small number of asymptomatic cases is important why?

so folks can use the inflated number to shape policy?


hospitalization/ICU/death = what we should all be trying to avoid
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 26, 2021, 09:11:56 AM
Number of cases is a leading indicator, I agree it's not a clear one, but it's a something.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 26, 2021, 09:30:31 AM
Let me just add that the post citing the US Department of Heath is not correct in its counting of Florida ICU data as a whole.

Some counties are very bad - but not overrun. The article mentioned that 93 percent of ICU beds in Florida are full. That is also not true, and what should be obvious is that not ALL of the ICU patients are Covid. We have an old population here.

Kinda sick of the hit pieces on Florida policy that are just masks for attacking the Governor here.

For the past month, "news" outlets have been bashing the Governor for promoting antibody treatments.

But now, it's a great treatment.

Why?

DeSantis and Fauci, Who Sparred Throughout Pandemic, Agree on Monoclonal Antibody Treatment (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/desantis-and-fauci-who-sparred-throughout-pandemic-agree-on-monoclonal-antibody-treatment/ar-AANHxbW?ocid=uxbndlbing)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 26, 2021, 09:48:50 AM
When it comes to COVID-19 transmission, is Nebraska the safest place in the nation?

All week, maps from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have made it look as though much of Nebraska is largely free of COVID-19 problems.

As of Friday’s map, 60 of the state’s 93 counties were colored blue, indicating low transmission levels. In fact, Nebraska accounts for the majority of such counties nationwide, with only 39 other blue counties in the rest of the nation.


(https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/omaha.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/8/68/868f7a0c-020f-11ec-8bbd-43b57b6bba33/61203ca0aa469.image.jpg)


“The color blue on the map may not be an accurate representation of transmission rates,” said Olga Dack, a spokeswoman for the Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services.

Instead, Nebraska counties are showing up in the low transmission category for a combination of reasons, including the state’s decision to retire its COVID-19 dashboard.

Dack said the CDC had relied on Nebraska’s dashboard. This week, she said, the state discovered that the federal agency had responded to the state’s dashboard change by using an alternate measure — percentage of positive COVID-19 tests — to assign transmission categories to Nebraska counties. Thus, county-level Nebraska data currently showing on the CDC website reflect the positivity rate, not the per capita case counts reported for most other states. The CDC also stopped factoring in very small numbers, Dack said.


Nebraska continues to report county-level COVID case data separately to the CDC, she said, but the CDC hasn’t been using it for some technical reasons.

The result: Nebraska looks like an island of blue in the center of a map dominated by red, high-transmission counties.


The CDC had not responded Friday to several requests for information.

Meanwhile, Nebraska health care providers and a group of lawmakers are asking Gov. Pete Ricketts to reinstate the dashboard, saying the data is crucial for schools, businesses and hospitals making operational decisions during the pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 26, 2021, 09:58:08 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 26, 2021, 09:30:31 AM
Let me just add that the post citing the US Department of Heath is not correct in its counting of Florida ICU data as a whole.

Some counties are very bad - but not overrun. The article mentioned that 93 percent of ICU beds in Florida are full. That is also not true, and what should be obvious is that not ALL of the ICU patients are Covid. We have an old population here.

Kinda sick of the hit pieces on Florida policy that are just masks for attacking the Governor here.

For the past month, "news" outlets have been bashing the Governor for promoting antibody treatments.

But now, it's a great treatment.

Why?

DeSantis and Fauci, Who Sparred Throughout Pandemic, Agree on Monoclonal Antibody Treatment (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/desantis-and-fauci-who-sparred-throughout-pandemic-agree-on-monoclonal-antibody-treatment/ar-AANHxbW?ocid=uxbndlbing)

To UTEE’s point, along with yours here/ we shouldn’t have to read those politically charged narratives in this thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 26, 2021, 09:59:48 AM
Amen bro.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on August 26, 2021, 10:20:44 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 25, 2021, 09:08:31 AM
I've read several places that natural immunity is better than being vaccinated.

So... those who are vaccinated and still contract Covid will be in a good spot. They most likely will not become severely ill or need to go to the ICU, while gaining even better immunity.


This is what Germany acknowledges with their “Covid Passport” system by including a “Recovered” category alongside what your attendance to Oregon or LSU homes games will require this season – Proof of Vaccination or a Negative Test.

“Under Germany’s new Covid health pass system, entry into many indoor spaces is being restricted to those who are vaccinated (geimpft), recovered from Covid (genesen) or to those who have tested negatively (getestet). In German it’s known as the 3G system so if you see this sign, be prepared to show proof of one of the ‘Gs’.”

https://twitter.com/TheLocalGermany/status/1430526145443762176
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 26, 2021, 10:43:49 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 26, 2021, 09:08:55 AM
reasonably, sure

but, hospitalization/ICU/death was always the target of flattening the curve and much more important

a huge or small number of asymptomatic cases is important why?

so folks can use the inflated number to shape policy?


hospitalization/ICU/death = what we should all be trying to avoid
From the middle of 2020 until the vaccine was widely available, if you wanted to know what was going to happen to hospitalizations/ICU/death, you just looked at the cases trend and that's what the other curves were going to look like a few weeks out. 

That's why case numbers were important. Not as important as hospitalization/ICU/death, but because it gave us a preview of what was coming.

That's no longer true, so case numbers aren't very important now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on August 26, 2021, 10:47:05 AM
Last week, Gov. Walz announced a policy in which all state employees must be vaccinated against COVID. This is a good idea, but this is something that probably should have been negotiated in the next labor contracts. 

However, I don't think there will be more than half-assed pushback from us, though. Our membership was surveyed on their situation and opinion, and the results:

-75% have already been vaccinated and plan to present proof thereof
-9% tested routinely
-Only 9% won't comply and will deal with the consequences.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 26, 2021, 10:52:15 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 25, 2021, 09:08:31 AM
I've read several places that natural immunity is better than being vaccinated.

So... those who are vaccinated and still contract Covid will be in a good spot. They most likely will not become severely ill or need to go to the ICU, while gaining even better immunity.
I don't disagree with the second statement, but I was just reading something that says the opposite of the first, which I highlighted above. Check out this series of tweets which do a pretty good job of boiling down the salient points of this paper.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.23.457229v1.full.pdf

https://twitter.com/celinegounder/status/1430661421839302674

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 26, 2021, 10:56:48 AM
Key quote from above series of tweets, regarding the paper's findings, is:


Quote
9/ People who were vaccinated had more memory B-cells recognizing variants than did people who recovered from mild COVD and were not vaccinated.

THIS IS A REASON TO GET VACCINATED EVEN IF YOU'VE HAD COVID!

VACCINES WILL PROTECT YOU BETTER vs VARIANTS.

10/ Why might vaccination work better than natural infection?

Perhaps because the Spike protein in the COVID mRNA vaccines is stabilized? A better target for immune system?

And because it's not stabilized in the live virus?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 26, 2021, 01:38:37 PM
So, is criticism of Florida's policies considered political, but praise for them is not?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 26, 2021, 01:45:27 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 26, 2021, 01:38:37 PM
So, is criticism of Florida's policies considered political, but praise for them is not?
I dont think talking about a states policies is political

as long as the subject remain virus related and not who the governor is

we can agree or disagree about policies at length on this thread as long as its not tied to a party affiliation
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 26, 2021, 01:48:06 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 26, 2021, 01:45:27 PM
I dont think talking about a states policies is political

as long as the subject remain virus related and not who the governor is

we can agree or disagree about policies at length on this thread as long as its not tied to a party affiliation
I follow your logic, 320, but I'm not sure that you are correct.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 26, 2021, 01:49:37 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 26, 2021, 01:38:37 PM
So, is criticism of Florida's policies considered political, but praise for them is not?
Not in a straight line that.

Hit pieces, citing bad information, that include misinformation, deceptions and lies?

Yes - from both sides.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 26, 2021, 01:50:38 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 26, 2021, 01:38:37 PM
So, is criticism of Florida's policies considered political, but praise for them is not?
People here are very touchy about Florida. :57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CWSooner on August 26, 2021, 01:51:38 PM
I all seriousness, Badge, I think that "bad information" is only verboten on one side of the discussion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 26, 2021, 01:55:09 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 26, 2021, 01:51:38 PM
I all seriousness, Badge, I think that "bad information" is only verboten on one side of the discussion.
again if theres no party affiliation or mention of names then feel free to post bad info if thats your belief

if others feel the info is faulty they will speak up and tell you why they feel that way

its called a non political discussion
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 26, 2021, 01:56:09 PM
Not when someone like me can easily refute, citing actual sources.

Again, just read my post upthread, discussing the antibody treatments.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 26, 2021, 02:16:19 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 26, 2021, 01:51:38 PM
I all seriousness, Badge, I think that "bad information" is only verboten on one side of the discussion.
I've done extensive cleanup on this thread since yesterday.

I might have missed some stuff.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on August 26, 2021, 02:21:06 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 22, 2021, 12:53:46 PM
I'm about ready to see hospitals be given permission to turn away Covid-positive adults who haven't been vaccinated.  That way the ICUs can be used to treat people who didn't make a conscious decision to disregard 15 months of pleas that they get the free vaccinations.
Doctors Announce They Will No Longer Treat Car Accident Victims Who Didn't Wear Their Seat Belt | The Babylon Bee

 (https://babylonbee.com/news/doctors-announce-they-will-no-longer-treat-car-accident-victims-who-didnt-wear-their-seat-belt)So we should stop treating diabetics who don't alter their diet.

There are so many injuries, illnesses, chronic conditions out there that can be help or exasperated by choices made by the person.  If we do what you said about above we should do it for all things. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 26, 2021, 03:34:37 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 26, 2021, 10:56:48 AM
Key quote from above series of tweets, regarding the paper's findings, is:



That’s significant!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 28, 2021, 05:30:51 PM
Florida COVID update: 21,189 new cases and fewer people in hospital beds
Devoun Cetoute, Miami Herald  2 hrs ago
(http://a.msn.com/05/en-us/AANQMQR?ocid=sf) (http://a.msn.com/05/en-us/AANQMQR?ocid=sf) (https://twitter.com/share?url=http%3a%2f%2fa.msn.com%2f05%2fen-us%2fAANQMQR%3focid%3dst&text=Florida+COVID+update%3a+21%2c189+new+cases+and+fewer+people+in+hospital+beds&original_referer=http%3a%2f%2fa.msn.com%2f05%2fen-us%2fAANQMQR%3focid%3dst) (https://twitter.com/share?url=http%3a%2f%2fa.msn.com%2f05%2fen-us%2fAANQMQR%3focid%3dst&text=Florida+COVID+update%3a+21%2c189+new+cases+and+fewer+people+in+hospital+beds&original_referer=http%3a%2f%2fa.msn.com%2f05%2fen-us%2fAANQMQR%3focid%3dst) (https://web.whatsapp.com/send?text=http%3a%2f%2fa.msn.com%2f05%2fen-us%2fAANQMQR%3focid%3dsw) (https://web.whatsapp.com/send?text=http%3a%2f%2fa.msn.com%2f05%2fen-us%2fAANQMQR%3focid%3dsw)
MIAMI — Florida on Saturday reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that 21,189 COVID-19 cases were added Friday, according to Miami Herald calculations of CDC data.
The state also reported 11 new deaths. In all, Florida has recorded at least 3,200,682 confirmed COVID cases statewide and 43,651 deaths.

COVID-19 hospitalizations in Florida



There were 16,164 people in the hospital for COVID-19 in Florida on Saturday, according to data reported to the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services from 258 Florida hospitals. This is 293 fewer patients than Friday’s COVID patient population.



COVID-19 patients also accounted for 27.95% of all hospital patients.


Of the hospitalized in Florida, 3,556 COVID patients were in intensive care unit beds, a decrease of 52. That represents 53.27% of the state’s ICU hospital beds from 258 hospitals reporting data.




Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 28, 2021, 05:32:03 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/bUNJ4hM.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 28, 2021, 05:33:34 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/j7NFvx4.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 28, 2021, 05:40:32 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/nyhEHjS.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: EastAthens on August 28, 2021, 05:47:53 PM
Quote from: CWSooner on August 22, 2021, 12:53:46 PM
I'm about ready to see hospitals be given permission to turn away Covid-positive adults who haven't been vaccinated.  That way the ICUs can be used to treat people who didn't make a conscious decision to disregard 15 months of pleas that they get the free vaccinations.
I agree 100%.  The apologists who say what about smokers or fat people are creating a strawman which ignores the fact that smokers are not filling up our hospitals and ICUs. Also, where can I get a free shot to keep me from getting fat?  Please let me know, I want that right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 28, 2021, 06:14:35 PM
Quote from: EastAthens on August 28, 2021, 05:47:53 PM
I agree 100%.  The apologists who say what about smokers or fat people are creating a strawman which ignores the fact that smokers are not filling up our hospitals and ICUs. Also, where can I get a free shot to keep me from getting fat?  Please let me know, I want that right now.
I may be wrong but I dont think the American people have sunk so low as to kill and the sick or dying

over this thing

you need to remember who we are and we are not that

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 28, 2021, 06:28:19 PM
I like the part about the free shot for fat people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 28, 2021, 07:04:39 PM
There'd still be fat people not getting THAT shot, too.  
We love our freedom to be stupid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 28, 2021, 11:05:28 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 28, 2021, 06:14:35 PM
I may be wrong but I dont think the American people have sunk so low as to kill and the sick or dying

over this thing

you need to remember who we are and we are not that


We've not, but in some places, we kinda have?

I feel like I've seen a smattering of stories about overwhelmed ICUs having to turn away someone. I'm not tracking all of them. But if we turn down medicine and then occupy a spot someone else could've had, we're sort of on that same road. Maybe I'm just feeling the emotion of some of the stories too much. 

In the end, taking care of ourselves when it comes to this takes care of each other. And I hope this kind of taking care of each other is who we are. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on August 29, 2021, 07:34:46 AM
Quote from: EastAthens on August 28, 2021, 05:47:53 PM
I agree 100%.  The apologists who say what about smokers or fat people are creating a strawman which ignores the fact that smokers are not filling up our hospitals and ICUs. Also, where can I get a free shot to keep me from getting fat?  Please let me know, I want that right now.
CDC data shows roughly 80% of COVID hospitalizations were fat people. No straw man about it. Roughly 50% of all COVID deaths are nursing home patients, ie the very old who already on deaths' doorstep.

COVID for overwhelming vast majority of young, healthy people is not that serious. It is primarily a killer of the fat and old.

Don't want to end up in the hospital because of COVID? Stop eating like a f#ng pig and exercise. America has to be the only country where it's cool to be fat and people get shamed for losing weight. We are literally a nation of idiots. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 29, 2021, 07:57:10 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on August 29, 2021, 07:34:46 AM
CDC data shows roughly 80% of COVID hospitalizations were fat people. No straw man about it. Roughly 50% of all COVID deaths are nursing home patients, ie the very old who already on deaths' doorstep.

COVID for overwhelming vast majority of young, healthy people is not that serious. It is primarily a killer of the fat and old.

Don't want to end up in the hospital because of COVID? Stop eating like a f#ng pig and exercise. America has to be the only country where it's cool to be fat and people get shamed for losing weight. We are literally a nation of idiots.
😂😂.  MDot pulling punches again
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 29, 2021, 08:13:21 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on August 29, 2021, 07:34:46 AM
CDC data shows roughly 80% of COVID hospitalizations were fat people. No straw man about it.
So ... this isn't really true. At all.

CDC data shows 78% of COVID hospitalizations were overweight. Now, you might think that means fat. But it doesn't really. It's based on BMI. But that definition, linked through your definition, here's a fat person.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcSFN-7OUzc

Man, if that guy died at 23 from COVID, it totally would've been because he's fat. And look at this fat guy. If he caught COVID and was hospitalized, he'd be in that 78%

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXCYiU5MI1I

So yes, nation of idiots and such. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 29, 2021, 08:24:59 AM
Discussing who might or might not be running for the next presidential election is clearly political and is going to get deleted on this thread every time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 29, 2021, 08:35:21 AM
Deleted that one too, MDot.

There is a thread for that kind of discussion.  This isn't it.  Take it elsewhere.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 29, 2021, 08:40:56 AM
Quote from: utee94 on August 29, 2021, 08:35:21 AM
Deleted that one too, MDot.

There is a thread for that kind of discussion.  This isn't it.  Take it elsewhere.
let me read them before you zap them

come on mannn
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on August 29, 2021, 08:41:55 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on August 29, 2021, 08:13:21 AM
So ... this isn't really true. At all.

CDC data shows 78% of COVID hospitalizations were overweight. Now, you might think that means fat. But it doesn't really. It's based on BMI. But that definition, linked through your definition, here's a fat person.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcSFN-7OUzc

Man, if that guy died at 23 from COVID, it totally would've been because he's fat. And look at this fat guy. If he caught COVID and was hospitalized, he'd be in that 78%

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXCYiU5MI1I

So yes, nation of idiots and such.
Yeah, no. 

51% of the 78% - were...you guessed it...classified as OBESE. That other 27% - who were overweight- going to go out on a f#ing limb here and guess they were not WORLD CLASS ATHLETES. 

What in the hell are you posting videos of Braylon Edwards or Justin Fields for? Neither one of them are overweight by any definition. What they were/are however- are WORLD CLASS ATHLETES in better physical condition than 99.99999% of the entire population of the world. When bunch of those types start dying in large numbers- get back to me Dick Tracy. So...pretty dumb for you to even post that. I don't get it? 

Adele loses 100 pounds looks better than she ever has, gets trashed on twitter for losing weight. Some fat disgusting lard singer named Lizzo wears almost nothing to an NBA game- health expert points out she needs to lose weight and some comedians make fun of her for wearing that ridiculous outfit and they all get trashed on twitter. So yep, we are a nation of fat "woke" morons. Unfortunately.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 29, 2021, 08:43:08 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 29, 2021, 08:40:56 AM
let me read them before you zap them

come on mannn
if the comments are posted in the correct thread then they will remain for all to see, for all of eternity.  The internet is forever.

But on this thread, they'll get wiped as soon as I see them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on August 29, 2021, 08:50:55 AM
Quote from: utee94 on August 29, 2021, 08:43:08 AM
if the comments are posted in the correct thread then they will remain for all to see, for all of eternity.  The internet is forever.

But on this thread, they'll get wiped as soon as I see them.
Ok fair enough. 

But in your opinion- why is DeSantis getting hit piece after hit piece done on him- when the COVID numbers in the state of Florida aren't nearly as disastrous as the media continually tries to make them out to be? Look at deaths/hospitalizations per million- Florida is nowhere near the top. I believe they are like 26th or 27th. And this is a state that has the 2nd oldest population in the entire nation (as a percentage of population) and is the 3rd most populous state in the country. 

New York is the 2nd worst- never heard a peep about that former head guy in charge until a sex scandal did him in. In fact, pre-sex scandal- the guy was almost being felated on national tv every other day for his excellent handling of COVID. Despite his state literally being the 2nd worst hit.

Kind of makes you wonder.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 29, 2021, 08:53:12 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on August 29, 2021, 08:41:55 AM
Yeah, no.

51% of the 78% - were...you guessed it...classified as OBESE. That other 27% - who were overweight- going to go out on a f#ing limb here and guess they were not WORLD CLASS ATHLETES.

What in the hell are you posting videos of Braylon Edwards or Justin Fields for? Neither one of them are overweight by any definition. What they were/are however- are WORLD CLASS ATHLETES in better physical condition than 99.99999% of the entire population of the world. When bunch of those types start dying in large numbers- get back to me Dick Tracy. So...pretty dumb for you to even post that. I don't get it?
You already told us those world class athletes were fat. Fat and deserving of their fat fates. Amazing how many of the Big Ten’s top receivers are fat.

(In the end, the point is a kinda stupid straw man because it’s an easy way to dodge the realities. Hospitalization rates of overweight/obease people are high in part because it affects the disease and in part because that’s a lot of the population. If hospitalization had zero to do with weight, you know what you’d expect: 73 percent overweight and 43 percent obese, because that’s the population profile)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2021, 08:53:37 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 29, 2021, 08:40:56 AM
let me read them before you zap them

come on mannn
You can find them here, at the bottom of the front page.


(https://i.imgur.com/KlYyUKU.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on August 29, 2021, 08:57:23 AM
so I'm scheduled to get first shot of moderna at cvs tomorrow- and just read two men in their 30's just died in Japan yesterday after getting the moderna vaccine. Wtf bruh. That's my luck- I take that shot and I die.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 29, 2021, 08:57:50 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on August 29, 2021, 08:50:55 AM
Ok fair enough.

But in your opinion- why is DeSantis getting hit piece after hit piece done on him- when the COVID numbers in the state of Florida aren't nearly as disastrous as the media continually tries to make them out to be? Look at deaths/hospitalizations per million- Florida is nowhere near the top. I believe they are like 26th or 27th. And this is a state that has the 2nd oldest population in the entire nation (as a percentage of population) and is the 3rd most populous state in the country.

New York is the 2nd worst- never heard a peep about that former head guy in charge until a sex scandal did him in. In fact, pre-sex scandal- the guy was almost being felated on national tv every other day for his excellent handling of COVID. Despite his state literally being the 2nd worst hit.

Kind of makes you wonder.

I'm not disputing that the MSM twist stories to fit their agenda.  It's just not subject matter for this thread.

If you'd like to discuss Florida's policies and the effects of those policies on its population, that is fair game for this thread.

Discussing anything further about political motivations for disputing his policies, is subject matter for another thread.

I understand it's a hot button and emotions run high-- which is precisely why it doesn't belong on this thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2021, 08:59:00 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on August 29, 2021, 08:57:23 AM
so I'm scheduled to get first shot of moderna at cvs tomorrow- and just read two men in their 30's just died in Japan yesterday after getting the moderna vaccine. Wtf bruh. That's my luck- I take that shot and I die.
You'll be fine. Good luck and thanks for taking one for the team.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 29, 2021, 09:00:20 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on August 29, 2021, 08:57:23 AM
so I'm scheduled to get first shot of moderna at cvs tomorrow- and just read two men in their 30's just died in Japan yesterday after getting the moderna vaccine. Wtf bruh. That's my luck- I take that shot and I die.

Both my wife and I got the Moderna shots and did not die.  So now you know of at least two people to counter that story. ;)


Seriously, you'll be fine. Might get some fatigue and a little achiness from either the first or the second.  Might get nothing at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 29, 2021, 09:01:54 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2021, 08:53:37 AM
You can find them here, at the bottom of the front page.


(https://i.imgur.com/KlYyUKU.png)

Oh man, now you've done it.  You're not supposed to tell the dirty unwashed masses about that thread...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on August 29, 2021, 09:02:53 AM
so I just read some shmuck- who I've never heard of before today- (thanks to twitter banning him) named Alex Berenson- who was at one time a reporter for the New York Times and left to start a conservative commentator/podcast whaever- just got permanently banned from twitter for posting this;

"It doesn’t stop infection. Or transmission. Don’t think of it as a vaccine,” the tweet read.

“Think of it — at best — as a therapeutic with a limited window of efficacy and terrible side effect profile that must be dosed IN ADVANCE OF ILLNESS.”


Seriously, twitter? Seriously?

I feel like Jack Dorsey and Mark Zuckerberg should be kicked in the balls to death live on national tv and streaming on facebook live and twitter. I'd pay tens of thousands of dollars to watch that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 29, 2021, 09:05:15 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on August 29, 2021, 09:02:53 AM
so I just read some shmuck- who I've never heard of before today- (thanks to twitter banning him) named Alex Berenson- who was at one time a reporter for the New York Times and left to start a conservative commentator/podcast whaever- just got permanently banned from twitter for posting this;

"It doesn’t stop infection. Or transmission. Don’t think of it as a vaccine,” the tweet read.

“Think of it — at best — as a therapeutic with a limited window of efficacy and terrible side effect profile that must be dosed IN ADVANCE OF ILLNESS.”


Seriously, twitter? Seriously?

I feel like Jack Dorsey and Mark Zuckerberg should be kicked in the balls to death live on national tv and streaming on facebook live and twitter. I'd pay tens of thousands of dollars to watch that.
He’s been trying to get himself banned for weeks. He think (probably correctly) that it will help us book sales.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 29, 2021, 09:07:35 AM
Anyone that reads twitter and expects legitimate news or rational discussion, deserves to eat the shit sandwich they're being served.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on August 29, 2021, 09:08:56 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on August 29, 2021, 09:05:15 AM
He’s been trying to get himself banned for weeks. He think (probably correctly) that it will help us book sales.
Never thought of that angle, but you're right. Never heard of him. Him getting banned for something that doesn't seem that controversial- instantly makes millions of people like me who have never heard of him aware of him- and makes a lot of those same people who already hate twitter/fb go out and buy his book. I hate that he got banned- I will always be against censorship- but I still don't give a shit who he is and I'm not going to buy his book.

Having said all that- twitter/fb are ruining this country. They have a really good shot at being the downfall of our society and the downfall of democracy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on August 29, 2021, 09:09:20 AM
Quote from: utee94 on August 29, 2021, 09:07:35 AM
Anyone that reads twitter and expects legitimate news or rational discussion, deserves to eat the shit sandwich they're being served.
100% 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 29, 2021, 09:11:44 AM
Quote from: utee94 on August 29, 2021, 09:07:35 AM
Anyone that reads twitter and expects legitimate news or rational discussion, deserves to eat the shit sandwich they're being served.
I think you can find it. But you gotta dig, find good sources and be cautious … plus wade through a ton of gross nonsense. 

Honestly not worth the time. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 29, 2021, 09:15:15 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on August 29, 2021, 09:11:44 AM
I think you can find it. But you gotta dig, find good sources and be cautious … plus wade through a ton of gross nonsense.

Honestly not worth the time.
I don't enjoy searching for needles in haystacks so definitely not worth my time. ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2021, 09:24:26 AM
7 day results on deaths:

(https://i.imgur.com/X1b0APj.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2021, 09:25:43 AM
All-time:

(https://i.imgur.com/Bh6vZD6.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2021, 09:26:12 AM
Link for those interested:

CDC COVID Data Tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_deathsper100k)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 29, 2021, 09:30:47 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2021, 09:24:26 AM
7 day results on deaths:

(https://i.imgur.com/X1b0APj.png)
Poor gulf coast south. I wonder if there’s a reason for Wyoming, or if that’s just random. Probably random.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2021, 09:35:47 AM
Wyoming is very much against vaccination.

(https://i.imgur.com/5aC6Uay.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 29, 2021, 09:42:55 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2021, 09:35:47 AM
Wyoming is very much against vaccination.

(https://i.imgur.com/5aC6Uay.png)
Hmm, I didn’t realize they were that much lower than surrounding states. I’m also kinda sad about the lightness of a state I just moved from and still like a lot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 29, 2021, 09:49:47 AM
Very useful data 847.  Thank you for posting it    
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2021, 09:50:47 AM
Where did you move to now?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on August 29, 2021, 09:51:00 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on August 29, 2021, 09:30:47 AM
Poor gulf coast south. 
Income rank: 

Alabama- 46th 
Louisiana - 48th
Arkansas - 49th 
Mississippi - 50th 

Alabama, Mississippi, & Louisiana total population all 30+% black. Mississippi about 40%. Nationally black people make up about 12-13% of population. 

The poor and ethnic minorities are statistically less likely to be vaccinated. The vaccines are free regardless of insurance situation. Could be a transportation issue. Don't really know why poor people and minorities aren't taking the gov't up on the free vaccines.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2021, 09:55:06 AM
Many of those people do not trust the government.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 29, 2021, 10:07:27 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2021, 09:50:47 AM
Where did you move to now?
Just to NC. I'm still about 25 minutes from the border. Ironically, my income tax went down a hair. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2021, 10:08:21 AM
That's like getting a raise. You'd get a better one if you moved here. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 29, 2021, 10:10:21 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2021, 09:55:06 AM
Many of those people do not trust the government.
Probably a blend of that and when you don't have much, a lot of stuff just gets harder, takes longer. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 29, 2021, 10:13:04 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2021, 10:08:21 AM
That's like getting a raise. You'd get a better one if you moved here. :)
True. I wonder if I'd get paid more. In any case, Naples probably isn't the place to be single in one's 30s. At one point, I was looking at a job down that way like a decade ago. They were not interested, alas. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2021, 10:59:24 AM
Plenty of jobs here, from Naples to Sarasota.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2021, 12:05:01 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/n5hEZn5.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 29, 2021, 12:07:29 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2021, 12:05:01 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/n5hEZn5.png)
Just for fun:
https://www.instagram.com/p/CS6vnJYAH4S/?utm_medium=copy_link
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 29, 2021, 12:32:29 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2021, 12:05:01 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/n5hEZn5.png)
I don't know why, but I always hate when something is formatted like that. I'd just prefer a 0.99997 chase of surviving. The moving of the decimal place is weird for something that will go three decimals deep anyway. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 29, 2021, 01:05:04 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on August 29, 2021, 12:32:29 PM
I don't know why, but I always hate when something is formatted like that. I'd just prefer a 0.99997 chase of surviving. The moving of the decimal place is weird for something that will go three decimals deep anyway.
Mentally, most people can understand percentages more easily than decimals. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 29, 2021, 03:26:39 PM
I like when discussions about the virus omit all non-lethal issues people have with it.  As if you're not dead, you're fine.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2021, 03:50:43 PM
I don't think people here discount the effects of getting Covid. It certainly was a rough couple of days for me, but not terrible. Some do worse than others. Some do better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 29, 2021, 03:52:02 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 29, 2021, 01:05:04 PM
Mentally, most people can understand percentages more easily than decimals.
That's true and fair. I suppose most people, close to all people, are to a degree bad at understanding percentages at large.

(I don't mean that to be rude, just that percentages large and small are hard to wrap our heads around. Like if a contagious disease had a 3 percent death rate, it would be a disaster, and all sorts of gambling still exist despite bad math)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 29, 2021, 09:26:52 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 29, 2021, 03:26:39 PM
I like when discussions about the virus omit all non-lethal issues people have with it.  As if you're not dead, you're fine. 
I didn't take it that way

not sure why you or others would take it that way
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on August 29, 2021, 09:28:53 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on August 29, 2021, 10:13:04 AM
True. I wonder if I'd get paid more. In any case, Naples probably isn't the place to be single in one's 30s. At one point, I was looking at a job down that way like a decade ago. They were not interested, alas.
 don't know if I've ever asked you bayarea- but are you in big tech or investment? Just wondering bc the big tech & investment banking crew are moving heavy into SoFL right now. And that's a GREAT place to be a single male with a high income. Like- an unbelievably great place.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 29, 2021, 10:57:46 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on August 29, 2021, 09:28:53 PM
don't know if I've ever asked you bayarea- but are you in big tech or investment? Just wondering bc the big tech & investment banking crew are moving heavy into SoFL right now. And that's a GREAT place to be a single male with a high income. Like- an unbelievably great place.
 
Comms and marketing. Though I'm stating to move into the tech space. Maybe down the line. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2021, 09:41:15 AM
The good news is France appears to be heading down, fairly clearly.  They could do a UK of course, which has leveled from a second bump.

Spain continues down.  Sweden is slightly up, but as yet not a spike at all.  India I can't explain at all, low vax rate, sharp peak and then sharp decline.  Brazil trending down, they never had a sharp peak, more like the Appalachians.

Florida still pending, might be peaking, yet, or not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on August 30, 2021, 10:05:29 AM
Minnesota has been holding steady state for 10 days. 

Also, good friends of ours are supposed to go to Greece next weekend for two weeks. The EU will be closing the Schengen zone to new arrivals this week. Needless to say, they are royally pissed right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2021, 10:12:11 AM
We're looking at a Baltic Cruise in May and I've yet to reserve it, even though I can delay it later if needed.  My wife can get in, but not me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 30, 2021, 10:19:23 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on August 30, 2021, 10:05:29 AM
Minnesota has been holding steady state for 10 days.

Also, good friends of ours are supposed to go to Greece next weekend for two weeks. The EU will be closing the Schengen zone to new arrivals this week. Needless to say, they are royally pissed right now.
Is this a done deal now?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on August 30, 2021, 10:26:30 AM
Sounds like it was discussed on Thursday to take effect this week. AP is running with it. 

https://apnews.com/article/lifestyle-europe-business-health-travel-9c0f10f0af7e4d7fab63d6d8d4ed844c
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 30, 2021, 03:46:10 PM
It's an EU recommendation but member countries are allowed to do their own thing. Tell your friends to double-check the specific requirements in Greece.  This is what the Italian ministry is saying as of today, 


Quote
Persons travelling from Canada, Japan and the United States of America may enter Italy by presenting a ‘Green Pass’ (or equivalent certificate issued by the local health authorities attesting that they are fully vaccinate with a European Medicines Agency (EMA) validated vaccine), a negative swab test carried out within the previous 72 hours and a Passenger Locator Form.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on August 31, 2021, 10:14:06 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 26, 2021, 01:50:38 PM
People here are very touchy about Florida. :57:


How much does all this focus on Florida ignore other states deserving of questions too?

Take Oregon, one of the most vaccinated states, yet their cases keep rising (see below). Even more newsworthy is how many “breakthrough” cases are occurring across Oregon. 60% of Covid cases at a recent outbreak at the Gateway Assisted Living Facility in Springfield Oregon were breakthrough cases.

How much is the CDC’s sudden push for Boosters every 5 to 8 months stemming from a reaction to avoid directly admitting an evidently decreasing effectiveness of the current roster of vaccines that were promoted as our final ticket past Covid? A population thus far only 50 or 60% onboard with getting initially vaccinated is now expected to face Boosters in perpetuity?


(https://i.imgur.com/95tS4kp.jpg)



(https://i.imgur.com/PiiTyCz.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 31, 2021, 10:18:19 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on August 31, 2021, 10:14:06 AM

How much does all this focus on Florida ignore other states deserving of questions too?

Take Oregon, one of the most vaccinated states, yet their cases keep rising (see below). Even more newsworthy is how many “breakthrough” cases are occurring across Oregon. 60% of Covid cases at a recent outbreak at the Gateway Assisted Living Facility in Springfield Oregon were breakthrough cases.

How much is the CDC’s sudden push for Boosters every 5 to 8 months stemming from a reaction to avoid directly admitting an evidently decreasing effectiveness of the current roster of vaccines that were promoted as our final ticket past Covid? A population thus far only 50 or 60% onboard with getting initially vaccinated is now expected to face Boosters in perpetuity?





less than 60% of folks inside an assisted living fac vaccinated?
WTF?

Promoted as what???  I didn't read that from a credible source
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 31, 2021, 10:19:55 AM
I always expected boosters in perpetuity.

What we're seeing being recommended right now isn't really a booster though, at least not by my own definition.  It isn't tailored to protect against new variants, it's just more of the same stuff that's proving to be less effective against the new variants.  

I guess "more is better" but there's not really any science behind it, other than some vague numbers that anything above 350 in the longterm antibody levels is considered sufficient for "prevention" and anything below likely isn't sufficient, which is why they're recommending a 3rd shot for Pfizer and Moderna folks.  And they're still not sure what to do with the J&J group of vaccinated people.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 31, 2021, 10:45:21 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on August 31, 2021, 10:14:06 AM

How much does all this focus on Florida ignore other states deserving of questions too?
Re: Florida, it gets a lot of spotlight because Badge keeps posting the Florida numbers whereas many of the rest of us don't post our own state numbers any more, and because so many posters are in (or from) Florida that it makes it a hot topic. 


Quote
Take Oregon, one of the most vaccinated states, yet their cases keep rising (see below). Even more newsworthy is how many “breakthrough” cases are occurring across Oregon. 60% of Covid cases at a recent outbreak at the Gateway Assisted Living Facility in Springfield Oregon were breakthrough cases.


Regarding an assisted living facility, I would ABSOLUTELY expect most of their cases to be breakthrough cases, because I would think that almost their entire population of residents are vaccinated.

We know the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are only 95% effective at avoiding symptomatic illness. Past data suggests the ratio between symptomatic and asymptomatic infection amongst unvaccinated people is about 50/50. Assuming all these residents are symptomatic (not a safe assumption--in an assisted living facility they may do 100% testing once there was an outbreak), if there is a 90% vaccination rate at the facility and literally EVERYONE in the facility had enough exposure to the virus to catch the infection, you can do the math. 5% of vaccinated residents (4.5% of total) would have symptomatic illness, and 50% of the unvaccinated residents (5% of total) would have symptomatic illness. Thus you'd have nearly a 50/50 split between breakthrough and natural infections.


Quote
How much is the CDC’s sudden push for Boosters every 5 to 8 months stemming from a reaction to avoid directly admitting an evidently decreasing effectiveness of the current roster of vaccines that were promoted as our final ticket past Covid? A population thus far only 50 or 60% onboard with getting initially vaccinated is now expected to face Boosters in perpetuity?

I've got some issues with the push for boosters. I'd like to better understand the immunity cycle both for natural infection and for vaccination. How much latent immunity lasts for years in the B cells and T cells, which seem to have "memory" of infection? Is there a difference in the level or duration of that longer term immunity between natural infection and vaccination? I don't really have a good way to answer that, and it appears that the studies on this are all very early-term (because this pandemic is still early term and vaccination less than half the total term). 

I do worry how much of the push for boosters is $$$ from Pfizer and Moderna. Is there enough data to say that the immunity isn't long term to justify it? 

What we do know about other coronaviruses is that immunity may not be infinite. I.e. if you get a common cold from one virus, you may catch that common cold from the same virus two years later. We don't really understand long-term immunity for this coronavirus, though.

That said, what if we learn that the vaccine only grants 8 months or so of immunity, and natural infection only grants 8 months or so of immunity? Is that somehow the fault of the vaccines because they're offering boosters? 

Unless there is strong evidence that the immunity granted by natural infection is significantly stronger or of longer duration than the vaccine, then the vaccine is much more preferable. In fact, even if the immunity granted by natural infection is of longer duration than the vaccine, the vaccine may still be preferable because of how effectively it reduces symptomatic illness, hospitalization, and death. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 31, 2021, 11:03:40 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 31, 2021, 10:45:21 AM
.
That said, what if we learn that the vaccine only grants 8 months or so of immunity, and natural infection only grants 8 months or so of immunity? Is that somehow the fault of the vaccines because they're offering boosters?



Have we learned this or suspect it

I have not seen any actual findings on this
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 31, 2021, 01:33:40 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 31, 2021, 11:03:40 AM
Have we learned this or suspect it

I have not seen any actual findings on this
We don't really know how long either natural or vaccine-derived immunity lasts. We know that antibody numbers decline over time, but latent immunity from B or T cells is not really clear as far as I've read. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 01, 2021, 09:25:46 AM
Cases in Austin/Travis County trending up a bit, again.  The age groups are skewing younger, more school-aged kids than ever before, so I think it's safe to say that the recent uptick is a result of school being back in session, and also that Delta is transmitting much more readily within those young age groups, than did previously.  More kids in the hospitals too, which is a really bad sign.

I think that if school had NOT gone back in session, we would be seeing the trend move quickly downward, as it was a few weeks ago.

(https://i.imgur.com/qXSNqfS.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 01, 2021, 10:02:59 AM
yet, no uproar to go to remote learning / closing schools

folks are tired of it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 01, 2021, 11:25:31 AM

After Delta took hold last winter in India (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/Kth3Va3DNB7l6_TYJF6IGQ~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjEdkrP0TaaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMS93b3JsZC9pbmRpYS1jb3ZpZC1jYXNlcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMTA5MDEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MzkzMDcmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xNTMzNjg5MTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD02Nzc0NyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9OGU1ZDJhMmI1ZTQ4YTY5NjU2MTkyY2MzYWYwYTkwMGNXA255dEIKYS0rVC9hBjZD-1IRamNkb29tOUBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~), caseloads there rose sharply for slightly more than two months before plummeting at a nearly identical rate. In Britain (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/G52Q5UDOnvlWcUWBbovXqw~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjEdkrP0TjaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMS93b3JsZC91bml0ZWQta2luZ2RvbS1jb3ZpZC1jYXNlcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMTA5MDEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MzkzMDcmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xNTMzNjg5MTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD02Nzc0NyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9OGU1ZDJhMmI1ZTQ4YTY5NjU2MTkyY2MzYWYwYTkwMGNXA255dEIKYS0rVC9hBjZD-1IRamNkb29tOUBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~), caseloads rose for almost exactly two months before peaking in July. In Indonesia, Thailand, France, Spain and several other countries, the Delta surge also lasted somewhere between 1.5 and 2.5 months.

(https://ci4.googleusercontent.com/proxy/syTTsp-HrgHnc1GDvNoejFdQZv-9u7dxJx9SXF3w2srrbAkcw6365B08KLyo09sKAVpeM3PJ6981MzIrlDFz5F3kGuGttLq_HBrIKDPnjfgckAbhZ8QYaXLfMreXSEY_USR6GUT7qoOGCGZSj0QhapooIOob7LD8mbZJI6pqHHUvJwjmB1vEWqFPXOLXlXpwigqCQ7D2TkjuYHoGktt1pE7RIubtNSus=s0-d-e1-ft#https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021/09/01/multimedia/01-MORNING-sub-COVID-WORLD-DELTA-CHART/01-MORNING-sub-COVID-WORLD-DELTA-CHART-articleLarge.png)
* Between February and July 2021, depending on the country.The New York Times
And in the U.S. states where Delta first caused caseloads to rise, the cycle already appears to be on its downside. Case numbers in Arkansas, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi and Missouri peaked in early or mid-August (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/-TgeXvb-gNWstYr_GsGCOg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjEdkrP4QDAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmJsb29tYmVyZy5jb20vbmV3cy9hcnRpY2xlcy8yMDIxLTA4LTIzL2NvdmlkLW9wdGltaXN0cy1zZWUtdS1zLW5lYXJpbmctZGVsdGEtcGVhay1idXQtcmlza3MtYWJvdW5kP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMTA5MDEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MzkzMDcmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xNTMzNjg5MTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD02Nzc0NyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9OGU1ZDJhMmI1ZTQ4YTY5NjU2MTkyY2MzYWYwYTkwMGNXA255dEIKYS0rVC9hBjZD-1IRamNkb29tOUBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) and have since been falling:


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 01, 2021, 11:27:51 AM
Yeah they were plateauing here in Texico, too-- until school started back up.  I'm curious to see what happens over the next few weeks as schools open in more and more states.  Do their numbers continue to decline, or will they trend back upward as they have here?


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 01, 2021, 11:28:14 AM
The second plausible explanation involves human behavior. People don’t circulate randomly through the world. They live in social clusters, Jennifer Nuzzo, a Johns Hopkins epidemiologist, points out. Perhaps the virus needs about two months to circulate through a typically sized cluster, infecting the most susceptible — and a new wave starts when people break out of their clusters, such as during a holiday. Alternately, people may follow cycles of taking more and then fewer Covid precautions, depending on their level of concern.

Whatever the reasons, the two-month cycle predated Delta. It has repeated itself several times in the U.S., including both last year and early this year, with the Alpha variant, which was centered in the upper Midwest:
(https://ci5.googleusercontent.com/proxy/Pqs9qehsQE3qSaEeYBREzGCXcsn8V5OBaOUg-zunbP3naE1zp7jHk5XFUHT1NXWSCyRejViPzTm-ZofaRX0O7gFdyPyYYtuqB58RH4v8vpzdA63hMKsvFUdmmd5E4keXRIRWQGEf3veqi1cO88oWI4qZMqlcCn1u75qRJuGTTWFQ-0BfoV2UvaEowDsU1auI4ChYNl9g-mH_zl9o6iUx_PtJ3Z0rT2bQLiyGvLMqCfs=s0-d-e1-ft#https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021/09/01/multimedia/01-MORNING-COVID-ALPHA-DELTA-REGIONS-CHART/01-MORNING-COVID-ALPHA-DELTA-REGIONS-CHART-articleLarge.png)

This is from the NYT, FYI.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 01, 2021, 11:36:15 AM
I think there are also strong effects from the amount of time spent inside vs. outside.  It's clear at this point the virus spreads much more easily inside.

Over the summer, southerners spent a lot of their leisure time inside to beat the heat.  Over the coming months, they'll be spending more time outside.

The trend in the north and midwest is the opposite.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 01, 2021, 12:32:10 PM
NPR article on longer-term immunity: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/08/30/1032520934/immunity-to-covid-19-could-last-longer-than-youd-think

Nature journal study upon which the article is (partially) based: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03738-2.pdf

One of the first I've seen that suggests that there is a long-term component of vaccine-derived immunity that occurs after the antibodies wane. 

We'll need more data on whether the boosters are actually necessary if this is the case. If it is purely based on antibody numbers, the booster might just be a cash grab by Pfizer/Moderna. That said, I wasn't afraid of the vaccine and I wouldn't hesitate to get the booster when my time comes in 8 months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 01, 2021, 12:33:29 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 01, 2021, 11:27:51 AM
Yeah they were plateauing here in Texico, too-- until school started back up.  I'm curious to see what happens over the next few weeks as schools open in more and more states.  Do their numbers continue to decline, or will they trend back upward as they have here?
I'm interested to see the difference in numbers (particularly in younger demographic, tied to schools) between Texas or Florida where masks mandates are illegal, and California where the state has mandated masks in schools statewide so it's not even a county-by-county or individual school district decision. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 01, 2021, 12:35:34 PM
it would be interesting

my guess is that masks are not very effective in schools with kids, especially elementary age students
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 01, 2021, 12:36:23 PM
I still can't explain India.  The "being outside" concept seems to work in the US, maybe, to an extent, as a reducer in spread.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 01, 2021, 12:39:23 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 01, 2021, 12:33:29 PM
I'm interested to see the difference in numbers (particularly in younger demographic, tied to schools) between Texas or Florida where masks mandates are illegal, and California where the state has mandated masks in schools statewide so it's not even a county-by-county or individual school district decision.
Court overturned this. Districts in FL can mandate away.

BTW.. this article appeared in Forbes yesterday, but it was taken down (of course). Someone saved it.


School Mask Mandates Mean Trauma For Millions Of Children, Especially Those From Low-Income Families (outline.com) (https://outline.com/YH5xup)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 01, 2021, 01:13:27 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 01, 2021, 12:39:23 PM
Court overturned this. Districts in FL can mandate away.

Same here, the mask mandates are legal in Texas as well, and every urban school district has them now.  Most rural school districts do not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 01, 2021, 01:19:19 PM
Ahh. In that case any differences in numbers between those three states are unlikely to be school/mask-related.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 01, 2021, 01:23:27 PM
We're seeing more significant spread within schools this year compared to last, despite the mask mandates.  So is it:

1) Delta variant just more transmissible?
2) No online options, 100% in-person school compared to the 60-90% we saw last year, so there's less ability to distance within the school buildings?
3) Generally less discipline with behaviors like distancing and masking despite mandates, due to COVID fatigue?
4) Some combination of all of the above
5) Something else entirely?

My best guess right now is that it's some combination of all of them, and probably some things I didn't list.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 01, 2021, 01:48:23 PM
My guess is similar to yours; it's a combination of many factors, and the increased transmissibility of Delta is a big one, coupled with low vaccine rates amongst the kids who are eligible and zero vaccination for anyone under 12. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 01, 2021, 02:17:13 PM
I didn't factor in vaccine rates as a factor this year comparing to last year, since vaccines were unavailable to all cohorts last year.

If vaccines are making a positive impression on the numbers, then I'd expect to see less spread in the 12+ groupings.  But here, at least right now, the spread in that population is similar to Under12.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 01, 2021, 02:50:15 PM
In AZ, mask-mandated schools have half the cases of non-mandated schools in children under 12.  

Kids get the Delta variant and it's only a matter of time before the deaths begin.  I know that sounds like easy-to-dismiss dramatics, but it's also a fact.  

No one ever gave me the acceptable number of deaths in adults to keep things open.  I doubt any of you will give me the acceptable number of dead children.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 01, 2021, 02:50:56 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 01, 2021, 02:17:13 PM
I didn't factor in vaccine rates as a factor this year comparing to last year, since vaccines were unavailable to all cohorts last year.

If vaccines are making a positive impression on the numbers, then I'd expect to see less spread in the 12+ groupings.  But here, at least right now, the spread in that population is similar to Under12.
To me the question is what percentage of that 12-17 age group are vaccinated? 

Here in CA, in the 18-49 age group we have ~64% fully vaccinated and an additional ~10% partially. But from 12-17, it's only ~49% fully vaccinated and an additional 11% partially.

I'm not sure how CA compares to other states--I can't easily find the age 12-17 vaccination rate for Texas or Florida, but I was able to find this: https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/vaccine-tracker

It basically calls out all <18 percentage, which is annoying because anyone under 12 doesn't qualify. But here are the numbers:



So playing fast and loose with the math, let's take California at 48.8% fully vaccinated from 12-17 years of age, and 17.1% fully vaccinated from 0-17 years of age, and assume a constant multiplier of 2.85x, meaning 12-17 years of age is ~35% of the population from 0-17 years of age.

That would give Florida a 35.3% fully vaccinated rate 12-17 years of age, and Texas a 41.3% fully vaccinated rate.

That's nowhere near herd immunity within that cohort, whether we're looking at California, Florida, or Texas. 

As for relative spread between the 0-11 and the 12-17 groupings, I'd think there are other factors than just vacc rates too... 12-17 usually will have more autonomy, more social interaction outside of school with friends, less parental oversight, etc... That may offset what would otherwise be a lower spread due to the effect of a 1/3 to 1/2 population vaccination rate in that age range...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 01, 2021, 03:01:46 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 01, 2021, 02:50:15 PM
In AZ, mask-mandated schools have half the cases of non-mandated schools in children under 12. 

Kids get the Delta variant and it's only a matter of time before the deaths begin.  I know that sounds like easy-to-dismiss dramatics, but it's also a fact. 

No one ever gave me the acceptable number of deaths in adults to keep things open.  I doubt any of you will give me the acceptable number of dead children. 
OAM, I already covered this. For now, what we're seeing is death numbers in the 0-17 years of age cohort over now ~18 months that are below that of the seasonal flu (6 month time scale). We don't ask students to mask, distance learn, socially distance, and as adults, dramatically remake our economic way of life for the flu. 

I'll admit that part of the reason those numbers are as low as they are is partially BECAUSE we've been masking, distancing, etc. But it's also true that as infectious diseases go, children are not heavily affected by COVID. Even with Delta. 

So if the answer for "acceptable number of dead children" is supposed to be zero, then I guess we should go back to distance learning forever, because they might get the flu at school. Why even allow them into schools with masks and social distancing?! It's unsafe!!!

But as I covered before, EVERYTHING in life is a balancing test. We say that in-person learning is important to student development. I'm not going to pick "masking in school" as the hill to die on, but important social development occurs from kids being together, interacting, and yes, seeing each others' faces. I don't think it's such a terrible thing to wear the mask at least until the Delta wave passes, but at the same time I'm not going to ask kids to mask in school forever because of the flu, either. 

You act like we're all in favor of dead kids because we won't go full bore with every restriction that's available. Yet you won't go with every restriction available, unless you want to go to distance learning forever, or make kids in schools wear masks forever, because of the flu--because the flu kills kids too. 

When push comes to shove, I don't think your answer is "zero dead kids is the only acceptable answer" either.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 01, 2021, 03:19:41 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 01, 2021, 02:50:15 PM
No one ever gave me the acceptable number of deaths in adults to keep things open.  I doubt any of you will give me the acceptable number of dead children. 
Beta gave a better response than I could ever do.  We as humans accept risks in order to live reasonable lives.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 01, 2021, 03:24:56 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 01, 2021, 02:50:56 PM
I'm not sure how CA compares to other states--I can't easily find the age 12-17 vaccination rate for Texas or Florida, but I was able to find this: https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/vaccine-tracker
Sure you can.


(https://i.imgur.com/ulko2m8.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 01, 2021, 03:35:29 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 01, 2021, 02:50:56 PM
To me the question is what percentage of that 12-17 age group are vaccinated?

Here in CA, in the 18-49 age group we have ~64% fully vaccinated and an additional ~10% partially. But from 12-17, it's only ~49% fully vaccinated and an additional 11% partially.

I'm not sure how CA compares to other states--I can't easily find the age 12-17 vaccination rate for Texas or Florida, but I was able to find this: https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/vaccine-tracker

It basically calls out all <18 percentage, which is annoying because anyone under 12 doesn't qualify. But here are the numbers:

  • California 17.1% fully vaccinated, 22.1% at least one dose
  • Florida 12.4% fully vaccinated, 17.7% at least one dose
  • Texas 14.5% fully vaccinated, 18.3% at least one dose


So playing fast and loose with the math, let's take California at 48.8% fully vaccinated from 12-17 years of age, and 17.1% fully vaccinated from 0-17 years of age, and assume a constant multiplier of 2.85x, meaning 12-17 years of age is ~35% of the population from 0-17 years of age.

That would give Florida a 35.3% fully vaccinated rate 12-17 years of age, and Texas a 41.3% fully vaccinated rate.

That's nowhere near herd immunity within that cohort, whether we're looking at California, Florida, or Texas.

As for relative spread between the 0-11 and the 12-17 groupings, I'd think there are other factors than just vacc rates too... 12-17 usually will have more autonomy, more social interaction outside of school with friends, less parental oversight, etc... That may offset what would otherwise be a lower spread due to the effect of a 1/3 to 1/2 population vaccination rate in that age range...
Yes, this was exactly what I've been speculating, to account for the seeming lack of differentiation between those two cohorts in raw cases, despite the partial vaccination of the older group.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 01, 2021, 03:39:02 PM
Thanks Badge. It's a little off since it's 12-19 rather than 12-17, but that's close enough for gov't work lol ;-) 

I wonder how that squares with the mayo clinic numbers... If you take the "at least one dose" number of 17.7% and a rough guess at a 2.85x multiplier, it gets you to 50.5%. The lower "fully vaccinated" percentage would still only be a little over 35%... 

Either way, good to see that the numbers are higher than I suggested.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on September 01, 2021, 03:58:13 PM
A guy here at work died from COVID last week.  I don't particularly know him but he was from the same country village as me and a little older. We exchanged emails intermittently when I was doing projects in his area.  He was 52 FWIW.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 01, 2021, 04:22:37 PM
Okay, flu deaths plus what?

Meh, I just hate that respsonible, vaccinated parents' kids are as unvaccinated as other people's.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 01, 2021, 04:24:33 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 01, 2021, 04:22:37 PM
Okay, flu deaths plus what?
Huh?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 01, 2021, 04:42:57 PM
Quote from: Gigem on September 01, 2021, 03:58:13 PM
A guy here at work died from COVID last week.  I don't particularly know him but he was from the same country village as me and a little older. We exchanged emails intermittently when I was doing projects in his area.  He was 52 FWIW. 

I still don't know a single person that has died from it.  I don't know a single person that's been hospitalized.  It astonishes me that some of you know multiple people that have died or been hospitalized.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 01, 2021, 04:47:28 PM
Quote from: Gigem on September 01, 2021, 03:58:13 PM
A guy here at work died from COVID last week.  I don't particularly know him but he was from the same country village as me and a little older. We exchanged emails intermittently when I was doing projects in his area.  He was 52 FWIW. 
Out of curiosity, do you know any of the specifics? Was he vaccinated? Any known comorbidities? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on September 01, 2021, 06:16:59 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 01, 2021, 04:42:57 PM
I still don't know a single person that has died from it.  I don't know a single person that's been hospitalized.  It astonishes me that some of you know multiple people that have died or been hospitalized.
Yeah, it's kinda crazy.  I mean I've lived in the same small community my whole life (except the A&M years of course), have a very large family as a result of being here since the 1800's, and we do run a business here that has been operating since the 70's.  Even when I ask people I work with not many people know anybody that died from COVID.  

To be fair, I didn't really know this guy.  I exchanged emails a few times, and he's from my town and I know some of his family.  Like I said, I only knew him in passing.  

I didn't really know the guy who lives in the house behind our pasture where we keep our cows, but we waved at each other while I was mowing and he was mowing. I work with his son in law.  

Of course there is my dad and then my aunt's long time BF. Two close family members right there.  

Then there is a cousin who I really didn't know that well either but I have met him a few times. 

The guy at the feed store who was in his 50's, and then a preacher here in town.  Knew them both in passing.  

My cousins brother who I really didn't know.  

A lady who is friends with my mom, her son's wife.  I know the son, I don't know the wife (she's the one that died). 

There's a few more but I can't remember them all right now.  This last guy makes the 13th person that I *know* that has died from covid.  

I guess more than anything else it puts these numbers into perspective for me.  Maybe for you, you don't really know many people who have died, they're just faceless numbers.  But for me I can see and feel the impact.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on September 01, 2021, 06:18:26 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 01, 2021, 04:47:28 PM
Out of curiosity, do you know any of the specifics? Was he vaccinated? Any known comorbidities?
As I said, I don't really know him but the few dealings I had with him he seemed healthy.  I don't know any nice way to ask if he was vaccinated or not, I find it's best not to ask unless you can do it tactfully.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on September 01, 2021, 06:19:43 PM
Two more people I work with, whom I personally know very well, were hospitalized.  One guy nearly died, and will have lung damage the rest of his life.  

The other was in the hospital a few days and seemed to recovered OK.  

Another guy I was working for a few weeks ago told me he had it and was hospitalized for a week but recovered OK. This guy was very fit, mid 50's.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 02, 2021, 10:00:51 AM
don't know a good way to ask folks if the person died of COVID or something else

doesn't really matter, I'm not that curious
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on September 02, 2021, 10:49:47 AM
Quote from: utee94 on September 01, 2021, 11:36:15 AM
I think there are also strong effects from the amount of time spent inside vs. outside.  It's clear at this point the virus spreads much more easily inside.

Over the summer, southerners spent a lot of their leisure time inside to beat the heat.  Over the coming months, they'll be spending more time outside.

The trend in the north and midwest is the opposite.




The strong potential for Covid cases to spike across the northern states throughout the coming Fall, as occurred last year due to your points stated, is my guess as to what’s behind the surprising sudden push for Booster Shot approvals. Booster Shot approvals were first aimed for 8-month recesses before getting considered for even shorter 5-month intervals, all with a September 20th deadline. This all coming as a reaction to the vaccine efficacy wearing off almost too soon to maybe even be termed a vaccine. A coming Fall spike across the heavily populated Great Lakes and Eastern Seaboard states, especially among their higher vaccinated populations, will break the promises and threaten the trust that a number of involved agencies have worked overtime to foster. Forcing through Booster approvals is the hurry-up offense of attempting to ensure some level of national immunity.

“The question of whether America's immunity is waning has become an urgent question in recent months with the rise of the delta variant and large pockets of the country still unvaccinated. [And the] latest analysis, released Monday by the CDC, found troubling signals on the ability of vaccines to prevent infections and to keep older people out of the hospital. Whereas the vaccines were 90% effective in June at preventing hospitalization in people ages 75-plus, that number fell to around 80% in July.”


https://twitter.com/Nightline/status/1433108190837841923


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 02, 2021, 07:50:17 PM
Quote from: Gigem on September 01, 2021, 06:19:43 PM
Two more people I work with, whom I personally know very well, were hospitalized.  One guy nearly died, and will have lung damage the rest of his life. 

The toll of covid is only to be measured in deaths.  I've been assured of this by members of this forum.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on September 02, 2021, 09:53:21 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 02, 2021, 07:50:17 PM
The toll of covid is only to be measured in deaths.  I've been assured of this by members of this forum.
(https://methodshop.com/wp-content/uploads/team-america-alec-baldwin-620x326.jpg)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32iCWzpDpKs
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on September 03, 2021, 01:39:42 AM
Quote from: utee94 on September 01, 2021, 04:42:57 PM
I still don't know a single person that has died from it.  I don't know a single person that's been hospitalized.  It astonishes me that some of you know multiple people that have died or been hospitalized.
Maybe it's a function of age. I have known 5 who died from it. A 6th person (a client) died when he had it. I contracted it from him or his spouse, or both, although they appeared asymptomatic at the time. He died a week later. He was 97, bedridden, and was dying of a separate cause, so regardless what his death certificate says, I don't include him in the 5.

The most shocking of my acquaintances to die was one of my best clients who was in my office 3.5 weeks earlier in perfect health, and said, "Do you want me to wear a mask?" I regret my response in Oct. 2019, "That's okay." We were over 6' from each other. I saw him before I had the known exposure, above, thank God. This guy went to a presidential candidate political rally a week after I saw him at the Des Moines airport, but he went to public events indoors, too.

I heard his obituary on the radio while getting ready for work. He died Nov. 15, 2020. By 8:30 a.m. the next day, I called his wife to find out what happened.

1 in 700 Americans have died from COVID-19. I am not questioning your veracity. It is surprising to find someone here not touched similarly by COVID-19. I wish I were you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on September 03, 2021, 07:53:36 AM
I know people who have been hospitalized, but none who have died.  But at my son's baseball practice last week, the other assistant casually dropped that two of his friends had died from it in the past month.  One was 32 with no medical conditions.  The manner in which he said it made me think those weren't his first two.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 03, 2021, 09:14:44 AM
Only one person I know has been in the hospital. He's still battling, 9 months later. Permanent lung damage.

(4 co-morbs)

I still do not know anyone who has passed from this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 03, 2021, 09:21:24 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/O25UZij.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 03, 2021, 09:36:18 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 03, 2021, 09:14:44 AM
Only one person I know has been in the hospital. He's still battling, 9 months later. Permanent lung damage.

(4 co-morbs)

I still do not know anyone who has passed from this.
Yeah with 1 in 700, and not accounting for age distribution, then it's possible I'd personally "know" maybe 1 person.  I have something like 350 Facebook friends (though I only regularly interact with perhaps 100 of them).  'Then there's work colleagues, so maybe another 60 or 70 that I can claim to personally know.  Old family friends and relatives and even parents of my friends that aren't on Facebook, maybe another 50 or 60 of them.  Favorite bartenders and restaurant workers that I'd count as people I know, another 20.  That all adds up to 500 people I would say that I "know."  And as far as i know, not one of them have been killed or hospitalized by COVID.

To get up to 5 people I knew that were killed by COVID, again just using averages and avoiding digging into age distribution, I'd have to know 3500 people.  I don't know 3500 people.  To get to 10, I'd have to know 7,000 people.  I definitely don't know 7,000 people.

So again, I wouldn't be all that surprised to find out there was one person I knew, who had died.  But anything more than that would be pretty surprising, and there are some people on this message board or others I frequent, that say they've lost up to 10 people.

That's really crazy and doesn't follow using averages.  Obviously age will have something to do with it, but I'm almost 50 and know a lot of people that are older.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 03, 2021, 10:18:30 AM
I too do not know anyone who died from covid

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on September 03, 2021, 10:50:52 AM
I know several people who have had COVID, but do not know anyone who has died. And both the Mrs. and I feel VERY lucky about that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 03, 2021, 11:05:39 AM
I don't know any personally, but I do find Randal's advice from the movie Clerks to be a sort of personal motto: "I find it's best to stay out of other people's affairs."

My wife has a HS friend who she only kept up with via Facebook who died from it, and he was our age. 

I do think that a lot of it is that we are young(ish), so most of the people we know in our social circles are young(ish). We're fortunate that none of the immediate or extended family members that are in more vulnerable groups were affected, but that's a pretty small number compared to, say, someone who is 70 and spends most of their time around people in that age group. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 03, 2021, 11:09:50 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on September 03, 2021, 10:50:52 AM
I know several people who have had COVID, but do not know anyone who has died. And both the Mrs. and I feel VERY lucky about that.

Yup I personally know probably 15-20 people who've had it, including my 13yo daughter, and my 80yo+ MIL and FIL.

I even know one person who has had it twice-- the college-aged son of a friend, who had it back in summer 2020, got vaccinated in spring 2021, and got it again in summer 2021.

But I don't know anyone that's been hospitalized or dead.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 03, 2021, 11:17:42 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 01, 2020, 05:40:16 PM
This pandemic has been bad obviously, but considering the possibilities we faced back in late March, it has not been as bad as I feared.
I was looking back a year ago when CFB was looking dicey, folks were just hoping MLB would hang in there.  Unfortunately the US did experience 600,000 deaths attributed to COVID.  This year CFB looks pretty normal, to me, as does MLB.

I still don't understand the virus though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 03, 2021, 11:28:11 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 03, 2021, 11:17:42 AM
I still don't understand the virus though.
Nobody does, except for a few people who may or may not be dead today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on September 03, 2021, 11:32:18 AM
Quote from: utee94 on September 03, 2021, 09:36:18 AM
Yeah with 1 in 700, and not accounting for age distribution, then it's possible I'd personally "know" maybe 1 person.  I have something like 350 Facebook friends (though I only regularly interact with perhaps 100 of them).  'Then there's work colleagues, so maybe another 60 or 70 that I can claim to personally know.  Old family friends and relatives and even parents of my friends that aren't on Facebook, maybe another 50 or 60 of them.  Favorite bartenders and restaurant workers that I'd count as people I know, another 20.  That all adds up to 500 people I would say that I "know."  And as far as i know, not one of them have been killed or hospitalized by COVID.

To get up to 5 people I knew that were killed by COVID, again just using averages and avoiding digging into age distribution, I'd have to know 3500 people.  I don't know 3500 people.  To get to 10, I'd have to know 7,000 people.  I definitely don't know 7,000 people.

So again, I wouldn't be all that surprised to find out there was one person I knew, who had died.  But anything more than that would be pretty surprising, and there are some people on this message board or others I frequent, that say they've lost up to 10 people.

That's really crazy and doesn't follow using averages.  Obviously age will have something to do with it, but I'm almost 50 and know a lot of people that are older. 
Just curious does this group of people involve any "plus one" type people.  Like the friend of a cousin?  Or the cousin of a friend type people?  Or maybe somebody at works mom or dad?  Of the 14 deaths I know about 5 are "plus one" type situation where I don't know them directly but there is one degree of separation type scenario.

I'd say I know hundreds of people who have had covid.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 03, 2021, 11:44:24 AM
Quote from: Gigem on September 03, 2021, 11:32:18 AM
Just curious does this group of people involve any "plus one" type people.  Like the friend of a cousin?  Or the cousin of a friend type people?  Or maybe somebody at works mom or dad?  Of the 14 deaths I know about 5 are "plus one" type situation where I don't know them directly but there is one degree of separation type scenario.

I'd say I know hundreds of people who have had covid. 
If I've never met someone, then no, I'm not counting them as "someone I know."  It wouldn't make any sense for me to do so.

I guess I could count that as "someone I know of" but then the same would be true of every death I hear about in the news. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 03, 2021, 11:55:29 AM
Quote from: Gigem on September 03, 2021, 11:32:18 AM
Just curious does this group of people involve any "plus one" type people.  Like the friend of a cousin?  Or the cousin of a friend type people?  Or maybe somebody at works mom or dad?  Of the 14 deaths I know about 5 are "plus one" type situation where I don't know them directly but there is one degree of separation type scenario.

I'd say I know hundreds of people who have had covid. 
Quote from: utee94 on September 03, 2021, 11:44:24 AM
If I've never met someone, then no, I'm not counting them as "someone I know."  It wouldn't make any sense for me to do so.

I guess I could count that as "someone I know of" but then the same would be true of every death I hear about in the news.
Yeah, that's why I differentiated that my wife knows someone, who I do not know, who died from COVID. 

It would be easy to claim that as a "plus one" type person, because c'mon, it's my wife. But I think that throws everything off because the moment you start including all the available "plus ones", it can spiral pretty quickly. Even if it's only one degree of separation, that means the, say, 100 people I know who also each know 100 people equals 10,000 people. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on September 03, 2021, 11:56:32 AM
Quote from: utee94 on September 03, 2021, 11:44:24 AM
If I've never met someone, then no, I'm not counting them as "someone I know."  It wouldn't make any sense for me to do so.

I guess I could count that as "someone I know of" but then the same would be true of every death I hear about in the news.
But do you even know of any plus ones?  Do you hear other people talking about somebody they know dying of covid?  Here in smalltown Tx I hear of a lot more people dying of covid than I'm even counting on my list.  I see names in the paper of people I'm vaguely familiar with and sometimes I ask if anybody knew how they died.  COVID comes up a lot.  

That's all I'm asking.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 03, 2021, 12:13:17 PM
The US usually has just under 2.9 million deaths a year due to all causes.  We're now running in the 3.4 million range, so of deaths we know about, roughly 1/6th were attributed to COVID.  How often does a person you know of die in a year?  For me, it's pretty rare, forunately, well under 6, mostly aunts and uncles.

I don't know that many people around here of course.  

One in six.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 03, 2021, 01:31:28 PM
Quote from: Gigem on September 03, 2021, 11:56:32 AM
But do you even know of any plus ones?  Do you hear other people talking about somebody they know dying of covid?  Here in smalltown Tx I hear of a lot more people dying of covid than I'm even counting on my list.  I see names in the paper of people I'm vaguely familiar with and sometimes I ask if anybody knew how they died.  COVID comes up a lot. 

That's all I'm asking. 
No, I don't think I even know any +1s that have died.  I've heard of one friend of my dad's that I've never met, who went into the hospital last summer, and then recovered.

That's really about it.


I heard on the news about a former Longhorn football player who died of COVID, and so did his wife a couple of days later, which is a really tragic story of course, especially since they had a couple of youngish kids.  He went to my high school and was a couple of years younger than me, but I didn't know him and can't recall ever really talking to him.  If I did, it would have been 33 years ago at the most recent.  I only found out about it because he was news-worthy in Austin as being a former Longhorn football player.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 03, 2021, 03:12:58 PM
A doctor in rural Oklahoma said the number of people overdosing on the deworming medication ivermectin was so high that emergency rooms were filled to the brim.

The situation is so dire that people with gunshot wounds have to wait their turn to get treatment, Dr. Jason McElyea, an ER physician affiliated with hospitals in Sallisaw, told KFOR, an NBC affiliate in Oklahoma City.

McElyea spoke to the channel this week about the dangers of overdosing on the version of ivermectin meant for use in livestock. He said the hospitals he worked at became overwhelmed after people started taking ivermectin, believing unverified claims that it's an effective COVID-19 treatment.

"The ERs are so backed up that gunshot victims were having hard times getting to facilities where they can get definitive care and be treated," McElyea said.


https://www.insider.com/oklahomas-emergency-rooms-are-clogged-with-people-overdosing-on-ivermectin-2021-9 (https://www.insider.com/oklahomas-emergency-rooms-are-clogged-with-people-overdosing-on-ivermectin-2021-9)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 03, 2021, 03:20:28 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 03, 2021, 03:12:58 PM
A doctor in rural Oklahoma said the number of people overdosing on the deworming medication ivermectin was so high that emergency rooms were filled to the brim.

The situation is so dire that people with gunshot wounds have to wait their turn to get treatment, Dr. Jason McElyea, an ER physician affiliated with hospitals in Sallisaw, told KFOR, an NBC affiliate in Oklahoma City.

McElyea spoke to the channel this week about the dangers of overdosing on the version of ivermectin meant for use in livestock. He said the hospitals he worked at became overwhelmed after people started taking ivermectin, believing unverified claims that it's an effective COVID-19 treatment.

"The ERs are so backed up that gunshot victims were having hard times getting to facilities where they can get definitive care and be treated," McElyea said.


https://www.insider.com/oklahomas-emergency-rooms-are-clogged-with-people-overdosing-on-ivermectin-2021-9 (https://www.insider.com/oklahomas-emergency-rooms-are-clogged-with-people-overdosing-on-ivermectin-2021-9)

I mean, there's so much to unpack here, from the patients that are consuming horse paste as a cure-all, to the fact that there's also apparently a surge in gunshot wounds in rural Oklahoma... COVID seems to be the least of this community's problems.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on September 03, 2021, 03:20:32 PM
Quote from: Hawkinole on September 03, 2021, 01:39:42 AM
Maybe it's a function of age. I have known 5 who died from it. A 6th person (a client) died when he had it. I contracted it from him or his spouse, or both, although they appeared asymptomatic at the time. He died a week later. He was 97, bedridden, and was dying of a separate cause, so regardless what his death certificate says, I don't include him in the 5.

The most shocking of my acquaintances to die was one of my best clients who was in my office 3.5 weeks earlier in perfect health, and said, "Do you want me to wear a mask?" I regret my response in Oct. 2019, "That's okay." We were over 6' from each other. I saw him before I had the known exposure, above, thank God. This guy went to a presidential candidate political rally a week after I saw him at the Des Moines airport, but he went to public events indoors, too.

I heard his obituary on the radio while getting ready for work. He died Nov. 15, 2020. By 8:30 a.m. the next day, I called his wife to find out what happened.

1 in 700 Americans have died from COVID-19. I am not questioning your veracity. It is surprising to find someone here not touched similarly by COVID-19. I wish I were you.
I have know a fairly large number of people who have had covid, only one has even been hospitalized.  Many of them are in the co-morbidity classification (age, Diabetes, overweight, etc).  No one has died 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 03, 2021, 03:26:34 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 03, 2021, 03:20:28 PM
I mean, there's so much to unpack here, from the patients that are consuming horse paste as a cure-all, to the fact that there's also apparently a surge in gotshot wounds in rural Oklahoma... COVID seems to be the least of this community's problems.
as you know, the folks in Oklahoma are complex
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 03, 2021, 03:48:19 PM
I'm slightly amazed that someone can read some "cure" on FB, or here, or talk radio, or the Twitterverse, and it becomes a fad.  And often a dangerous one.

I think overall "trust" in the medical community has really taken a hit, maybe it was always that low for some among us.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 03, 2021, 04:22:25 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 03, 2021, 03:48:19 PM
I'm slightly amazed that someone can read some "cure" on FB, or here, or talk radio, or the Twitterverse, and it becomes a fad.  And often a dangerous one.

I think overall "trust" in the medical community has really taken a hit, maybe it was always that low for some among us.
People have been stupid for a long time... Social media is allowing them to congregate and share their stupidity in an entirely new way, though... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 03, 2021, 05:06:52 PM
stupid people give me hope that even a poor dirt farmer like myself can get through life fairly easily
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 03, 2021, 05:07:25 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 03, 2021, 03:20:28 PM
I mean, there's so much to unpack here, from the patients that are consuming horse paste as a cure-all, to the fact that there's also apparently a surge in gunshot wounds in rural Oklahoma... COVID seems to be the least of this community's problems.
Uhh... yeah.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 03, 2021, 05:08:40 PM
Zinc, Vitamin D, and Airborne. That's my thing, again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 03, 2021, 05:18:42 PM
Zinc, D, and C.  But I've been taking those as supplements for years.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 03, 2021, 05:53:19 PM
I've been heavily into Vitamin "B" for decades

Budweiser
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 03, 2021, 06:08:25 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 03, 2021, 05:53:19 PM
I've been heavily into Vitamin "B" for decades

Budweiser
Don't forget your appreciation of Vitamin T as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on September 03, 2021, 06:12:22 PM
When you burgle dirt, this is what you do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 03, 2021, 07:42:26 PM
noodling doesn't appear to be healthy to me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 03, 2021, 08:59:26 PM
well you're suppose to be on the fairway not wading around in a pond groping for your Titleist
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 03, 2021, 09:10:34 PM
those are more than $3 each!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on September 03, 2021, 10:24:19 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 03, 2021, 03:12:58 PM
A doctor in rural Oklahoma said the number of people overdosing on the deworming medication ivermectin was so high that emergency rooms were filled to the brim.

The situation is so dire that people with gunshot wounds have to wait their turn to get treatment, Dr. Jason McElyea, an ER physician affiliated with hospitals in Sallisaw, told KFOR, an NBC affiliate in Oklahoma City.

McElyea spoke to the channel this week about the dangers of overdosing on the version of ivermectin meant for use in livestock. He said the hospitals he worked at became overwhelmed after people started taking ivermectin, believing unverified claims that it's an effective COVID-19 treatment.

"The ERs are so backed up that gunshot victims were having hard times getting to facilities where they can get definitive care and be treated," McElyea said.


https://www.insider.com/oklahomas-emergency-rooms-are-clogged-with-people-overdosing-on-ivermectin-2021-9 (https://www.insider.com/oklahomas-emergency-rooms-are-clogged-with-people-overdosing-on-ivermectin-2021-9)
Ivermectin isn't some horse deworming drug that is not safe for humans. Why morons on CNN and the worthless media keep saying that- who knows. Maybe they want to appease the big pharma conglomerates that run ads on their shitty tv networks? That'd be my guess.

What it is however is a drug that has been used by humans for literally over 40 years & has had full FDA approval for 3 decades, is listed as an essential medicine by the WHO and has been dosed literally billions of times. It's a completely safe drug, and some studies seem to suggest that ivermectin could be a promising Covid prophylactic.

Any drug- from tylenol to percocet- take too much of it- and it'll kill your ass dead. People who are buying a related Ivermectin product that is produced and intended for horses and taking it are obviously f#kn morons as an average horse is around 1,000 pounds and some weigh up to 2,000+ pounds whereas an average US male is what 200 pounds?

My guess- ivermectin has become such a hot button topic and brilliant people like Bret Weinstein have gotten censored/in trouble talking about it on platforms like YouTube is, because: money. Say ivermectin really was effective at stopping covid in its tracks as a prophylactic. I don't claim to know one way or the other or really care to be honest with you. But just say hypothetically it did- it absolutely could disrupt the record profits the drug companies with the vaccine have been making. Ivermectin is so old and out of patent- and it's already been mined. Anybody could make a generic version and make it cheaply- there's no money in it for anyone.

Covid vaccines? Look no further than Moderna. Moderna was a dog-shit, worthless hyped up "biotech" company that had literally never made a dollar, and whose revenue in all of 2019 was $60 million. Their stock traded at $12 a share two years ago. Now? First quarter of this year Moderna did $2 billion in revenue and in the second quarter of this year they did $4.4 billion in revenue. Oh yeah, their stock is trading at $416 a share. Up only 3,500% and $400+ a share from right before covid- to now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 03, 2021, 10:47:53 PM
I dunno when I get worms Vodka usually does the trick
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 03, 2021, 11:56:29 PM
The worms are IN the Mezcal.  No worries, drink 'em right up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 04, 2021, 12:34:53 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on September 03, 2021, 10:24:19 PM
. People who are buying a related Ivermectin product that is produced and intended for horses and taking it are obviously f#kn morons as an average horse is around 1,000 pounds and some weigh up to 2,000+ pounds whereas an average US male is what 200 pounds?

Well the story was from Oklahoma, so I'm guessing closer to tree-fitty. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 04, 2021, 07:06:24 AM
I still wonder why anyone would take some drug because they heard about it "somewhere" versus taking professional medical advice.  And this isn't the first example of that.

I guess GNC stays in business with the same attitudes.

It's interesing to me how individuals form technical opinions I guess on technical topics.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 04, 2021, 09:13:00 AM
and worse yet refuse to be educated even a little by good friends and otherwise reasonable folks

ya can't fix stoopid
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on September 05, 2021, 12:42:41 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on September 03, 2021, 10:24:19 PM
I don't claim to know one way or the other or really care to be honest with you. But just say hypothetically it did- it absolutely could disrupt the record profits the drug companies with the vaccine have been making.
I would go to Phil Valentine for his advice on pharmaceuticals. Oops, he chose Ivermectin over vaccines, and which resulted in him exercising his right to remain silent. It is sad when people choose pharmaceuticals based upon persuasions unrelated to safety and efficacy. Taking a parasitic dewormer as a preventative to COVID-19, rather than a vaccine developed for the purpose of preventing COVID-19, is nuts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 05, 2021, 01:47:42 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 04, 2021, 07:06:24 AM
I still wonder why anyone would take some drug because they heard about it "somewhere" versus taking professional medical advice.  And this isn't the first example of that.

Because they're the masses.  It's who we are.  And we've all learned that the population has a lot more of them than we thought.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on September 05, 2021, 07:49:55 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 03, 2021, 03:12:58 PM
A doctor in rural Oklahoma said the number of people overdosing on the deworming medication ivermectin was so high that emergency rooms were filled to the brim.

The situation is so dire that people with gunshot wounds have to wait their turn to get treatment, Dr. Jason McElyea, an ER physician affiliated with hospitals in Sallisaw, told KFOR, an NBC affiliate in Oklahoma City.


So it turns out we wouldn’t even know about this guy, Doctor McElyea, if he wasn’t a useful quote for Rolling Stone?

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1434330814985252868
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 05, 2021, 08:04:20 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 04, 2021, 12:34:53 AM
Well the story was from Oklahoma, so I'm guessing closer to tree-fitty.
Weren't you just lecturing someone taking shots at Purdue? 😎
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 05, 2021, 08:11:24 AM
Quote from: utee94 on September 03, 2021, 11:56:29 PM
The worms are IN the Mezcal.  No worries, drink 'em right up.
I was a at a friends Tavern years back and 2 guys came in with the sole pupose of emptying the bottle of Tequila and eating the worm/larva just to see if they'd hallucinate. Before they did it I chimed in they'd prolly be hallucinating by the time they got to the bottom.They did it anyway
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 05, 2021, 08:19:43 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 05, 2021, 01:47:42 AM
Because they're the masses.  It's who we are.  And we've all learned that the population has a lot more of them than we thought.
I think what I learned is that "one percent" is inherently weird, and the "news" often is about the "one percent".  I've also learned how often the "media" contrive and distort story lines for impact.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 05, 2021, 08:40:18 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on September 05, 2021, 07:49:55 AM

So it turns out we wouldn’t even know about this guy, Doctor McElyea, if he wasn’t a useful quote for Rolling Stone?

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1434330814985252868

Not at all surprising. The media is dead.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 05, 2021, 11:28:22 AM
I don't think of "RS" as being a credible part of the "media" even loosely defined as such, to include CNN/Fox/whoever else.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on September 06, 2021, 12:35:52 AM
Iowa's COVID testing gives you a result within 3-5 days. My administrative assistant had a test Tuesday. She texted today (Sunday), it was negative. So I went without help most of the past week.

Folks, we gotta do better. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 06, 2021, 03:46:09 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 05, 2021, 08:19:43 AM
I think what I learned is that "one percent" is inherently weird, and the "news" often is about the "one percent".  I've also learned how often the "media" contrive and distort story lines for impact.

This is what I'm talking about.....we think it's 1%, but it's A LOT more.  No, the twitterverse isn't a representative of them, the voting booth is.  It's closer to 30%.  You know, the % of people not getting vaccinated, seemingly, no matter what.  These aren't "wait and see if it's safe" people anymore, it's "I'll never get the vaccine because I won't be told what to do" people.
.
Maybe we could forbid them from jumping off a cliff?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 06, 2021, 08:30:35 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 06, 2021, 03:46:09 AM
This is what I'm talking about.....we think it's 1%, but it's A LOT more.  No, the twitterverse isn't a representative of them, the voting booth is.  It's closer to 30%.  You know, the % of people not getting vaccinated, seemingly, no matter what.  These aren't "wait and see if it's safe" people anymore, it's "I'll never get the vaccine because I won't be told what to do" people.
.
Maybe we could forbid them from jumping off a cliff?
We need someone to drill down and figure out exactly who the anti-vaxers are right now.

I now know 4 people (two couples) who won't get it.

The reasoning for one couple is just that they don't do "MD things".

The other couple won't get it, because "it's really not a vaccine" (meaning you can still get Covid).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 06, 2021, 08:36:17 AM
How do know it's not "one percent"?  And yes, it's much higher on some opinions, but I'm really talking about extreme positions.  These one percenters generate a LOT of noise, not numbers.  One such extreme position for example is that Bill Gates has a tracking chip in the vaccine.

Some people don't get the vaccine because they know they already had the virus.  Others because they believe if they get it, the impact will be small.  I may disagree, but those are not one percenter opinions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 06, 2021, 09:33:22 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/SEBmuvT.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 06, 2021, 09:34:09 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/LLrLb0t.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 06, 2021, 10:48:49 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 06, 2021, 08:30:35 AM
We need someone to drill down and figure out exactly who the anti-vaxers are right now.

I now know 4 people (two couples) who won't get it.

The reasoning for one couple is just that they don't do "MD things".

The other couple won't get it, because "it's really not a vaccine" (meaning you can still get Covid).
Oh, so they're just stupid [at least about science]?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 06, 2021, 10:50:10 AM
I don't know about any microchips, but I've got 5 bars on my phone everywhere I go now. 

After the booster, I'm hoping to be my own cell site!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 06, 2021, 12:12:03 PM
I had a neighbor way back who said the strip they put in paper money was to collect fingerprints and surface the underground economy.  He was a pediatrician, so probably not completely dumb.  He also thought the Queen of England was head of an international drug cartel.

After he told me that, I avoided him, so I don't know what else he believed.  Fake moon landings, various secret groups controlling everything, JFK was killed by aliens, ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 06, 2021, 01:22:40 PM
I'm talking about "extreme positions", defined as such by me.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 06, 2021, 05:15:46 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 06, 2021, 12:12:03 PM
I had a neighbor way back who said the strip they put in paper money was to collect fingerprints and surface the underground economy.  He was a pediatrician, so probably not completely dumb.  He also thought the Queen of England was head of an international drug cartel.

After he told me that, I avoided him, so I don't know what else he believed.  Fake moon landings, various secret groups controlling everything, JFK was killed by aliens, ...
Wow. If my kids' pediatrician was known to believe any of that, I don't think I could trust her to treat my children.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 07, 2021, 07:27:56 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 06, 2021, 05:15:46 PM
Wow. If my kids' pediatrician was known to believe any of that, I don't think I could trust her to treat my children.
Oh, no doubt, we didn't have kids at the time.  He was really nutty.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 07, 2021, 07:32:57 AM
France clearly headed down.

UK trending up still, weird.

Sweden slight trend up from low base.

Florida MAY be past the peak, hopefully.  

Ohio climbing.

This thing does appear to be going south to north.  

India had a sharp major peak May 2 and then a sharp decline, very low vax rate there.

Brazil shows no sharp peaks, very muddy, trending down now more or less.  Data for these two countries could be dubious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 07, 2021, 09:25:47 AM
This tool synthesizes reported COVID-19 geographic case data and rapidly evolving scientific research to help you ballpark how much risk this disease poses to you.

https://19andme.covid19.mathematica.org/ (https://19andme.covid19.mathematica.org/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 09, 2021, 01:49:12 PM
Not all municipalities are capturing this, so I thought it was interesting to see these numbers from San Diego:

(https://i.imgur.com/FCy3n1W.png)

Seems to be some pretty strong evidence that the vaccine will keep you largely uninfected, out of the hospital and not dead.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-2V18YVQAQy2PJ?format=jpg&name=large
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 09, 2021, 03:47:17 PM
Really good news there. Thanks for sharing that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 09, 2021, 11:13:41 PM
I just wished it was shared more widely and some unvaxed would actually take it into consideration
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 09, 2021, 11:35:43 PM
Anyone still unvaxxed is proud of it by now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 09, 2021, 11:36:41 PM
agreed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on September 10, 2021, 12:29:39 AM
Quote from: utee94 on September 09, 2021, 01:49:12 PM
Not all municipalities are capturing this, so I thought it was interesting to see these numbers from San Diego:

[img width=394.985 height=500]https://i.imgur.com/FCy3n1W.png[/img]

Seems to be some pretty strong evidence that the vaccine will keep you largely uninfected, out of the hospital and not dead.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-2V18YVQAQy2PJ?format=jpg&name=large
The unvaccinated are not entirely undead. So for this and other reasons I have returned to wearing my KN95 mask in retail outlets, and other indoor settings.
The Iowa Supreme Court has just gone back to imposing mask mandates (in the discretion of the presiding judge). I had not seen the order, but heard about it from another lawyer before Tuesday court service day in my rural county. The judge I saw Tuesday at court service day, in chambers did not have a mask on, and I mentioned the order I only heard about from another lawyer - and he said it was in the discretion of the court and promptly, and very kindly, slipped on his surgical mask.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on September 10, 2021, 07:41:00 AM
So we’re back (or never had really left) to talking about mandates after several came down from the top. The first and most obvious being the stricter vaccination requirements for government employees, which, through their labor unions seem enforceable enough.

What I don’t find as enforceable are the mandates requiring private business to account for employee vaccination status. Who exactly is a large enough local restaurant collective or skilled labor provider supposed to report to? And if things don’t work out who comes after them or their contracts? Just seems a very rushed new reality with the vaccine status regs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 10, 2021, 08:54:21 AM
Down here in Texico, I haven't seen anything about the government issuing mandates to private businesses.  There are private businesses that are doing it on their own, but I can't really imagine a situation where the government would make a mandate to private entities.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 10, 2021, 09:00:51 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on September 10, 2021, 07:41:00 AM
So we’re back (or never had really left) to talking about mandates after several came down from the top. The first and most obvious being the stricter vaccination requirements for government employees, which, through their labor unions seem enforceable enough.

What I don’t find as enforceable are the mandates requiring private business to account for employee vaccination status. Who exactly is a large enough local restaurant collective or skilled labor provider supposed to report to? And if things don’t work out who comes after them or their contracts? Just seems a very rushed new reality with the vaccine status regs.
OSHA.

(https://i.imgur.com/ph6Zryn.png)


Oops...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 10, 2021, 09:33:03 AM
Is that a done deal?  Is OSHA making it an emergency safety requirement for private entities?  And if so, what's the reach?

That would be a... big deal... IMO.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 10, 2021, 09:55:46 AM
Quote from: utee94 on September 10, 2021, 09:33:03 AM
Is that a done deal?  Is OSHA making it an emergency safety requirement for private entities?  And if so, what's the reach?

That would be a... big deal... IMO.


Believe it was at the behest of POTUS. Not sure if that was part of his executive order or was just a directive to DoL because it's all executive branch.

Reach is all companies with >=100 employees. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 10, 2021, 09:57:22 AM
Quote from: utee94 on September 10, 2021, 09:33:03 AM
Is that a done deal?  Is OSHA making it an emergency safety requirement for private entities?  And if so, what's the reach?

That would be a... big deal... IMO.


did you watch or read our President's speech
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 10, 2021, 09:57:42 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 09, 2021, 11:13:41 PM
I just wished it was shared more widely and some unvaxed would actually take it into consideration
My BIL believes everyone who is vaxxed will be dead within 3-5 years. Because "there are studies". He has not produced such studies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on September 10, 2021, 10:08:09 AM
An excellent summation of how a lot of us feel about things at this stage of the pandemic. 

https://twitter.com/DiscontentJacks/status/1435401253840830468?s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 10, 2021, 10:30:13 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 10, 2021, 09:57:42 AM
My BIL believes everyone who is vaxxed will be dead within 3-5 years. Because "there are studies". He has not produced such studies.
Dude
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 10, 2021, 10:32:48 AM
OSHA doesn't have the capability to enforce rules for every company over 100 employees

call out the national guard???

I didn't listen to Biden, but did he give a reason why the arbitrary number was 100 employees or more?  Just curious if there was any logic

why not 1000 employees or 25?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 10, 2021, 10:44:04 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 10, 2021, 09:57:22 AM
did you watch or read our President's speech
Nope
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 10, 2021, 12:44:08 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 10, 2021, 09:57:42 AM
My BIL believes everyone who is vaxxed will be dead within 3-5 years. Because "there are studies". He has not produced such studies.
Ya that's BS same with studies going the other way.Last year in march the media was barking about studies regarding the vax like it could possibly be etched in stone after a couple of months or even years. I know of plenty of people who are still sick and one who died 3 hrs after  the shot - that's not heresay or heresy.Why are we not on shot 1 or 2 but now 3 and if something goes wrong dreadfully wrong and on occasion it has happened litigation has been waved by the government 🤷‍♂️ :017:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 10, 2021, 12:47:38 PM
was it proven or proven otherwise that the shot was the cause of death 3 hours later or the cause of the sickness?

seems the right wing folks would have a field day if any of this was proven
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 10, 2021, 12:56:29 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on September 10, 2021, 12:44:08 PM
Ya that's BS same with studies going the other way.Last year in march the media was barking about studies regarding the vax like it could possibly be etched in stone after a couple of months or even years. I know of plenty of people who are still sick and one who died 3 hrs after  the shot - that's not heresay or heresy.Why are we not on shot 1 or 2 but now 3 and if something goes wrong dreadfully wrong and on occasion it has happened litigation has been waved by the government 🤷‍♂️ :017:

You know "plenty of people" who are still sick, weeks or months after the shot? 

How many? Can you elaborate on their symptoms? Have they sought treatment? Have any doctors confirmed that they are experiencing adverse reactions to the shot?

I know tons who have gotten the shot, and zero fit that category. I'm guessing if we polled here, everyone except you would say that they know zero people with long term effects from the shot. 

You'd have to be a giant statistical outlier to know "plenty"... So I'm looking for a little more background on this one. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 10, 2021, 01:16:53 PM
Yes,Cindy's ex, says he still has respiratory problems along with his sister who also got vaxed,he got his shot in April.My own brother says he still feels like shit he got both shots May/June,another brother,no problems and a sister no problems either.A very good friend is sure he had covid in Jan 2020 before it was athing got the shots later,actually earlier this year as he is a IT with the county he said he won't get a 3rd.So it really is a 50/50 thing to the people I talked to
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 10, 2021, 01:25:30 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on September 10, 2021, 01:16:53 PM
Yes,Cindy's ex, says he still has respiratory problems along with his sister who also got vaxed,he got his shot in April.My own brother says he still feels like shit he got both shots May/June,another brother,no problems and a sister no problems either.A very good friend is sure he had covid in Jan 2020 before it was athing got the shots later,actually earlier this year as he is a IT with the county he said he won't get a 3rd.So it really is a 50/50 thing to the people I talked to
Have any of them reported these to VAERS?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 10, 2021, 01:29:58 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 10, 2021, 12:47:38 PM
was it proven or proven otherwise that the shot was the cause of death 3 hours later or the cause of the sickness?

seems the right wing folks would have a field day if any of this was proven
They didn't try to she obviously had a reaction - severe respiratory difficulties then cardiac arrest she was I think 64.The family is stunned/pissed.If everyone today started getting cancer treatments or diabetes treatments or heart medications that didn't need it I'm guessing there could be problems .One type of drug can't possibly work on everyone as somebody will have an underlying condition or an allergic reaction.I can remember one time in my adult life that i've had the flu,I've never gotten a flu shot either.I've had shots but not those kinds
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 10, 2021, 01:34:58 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 10, 2021, 01:25:30 PM
Have any of them reported these to VAERS?
No, well not really sure as I haven't asked they probably just think it comes with the territory.Ironically my brother use to travel to China on business,I don't think his employer mandated,I think he did it because he is close to the grandkids and thought it would help.I'm not familiar VAERS,I'll pass that along
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 10, 2021, 01:39:19 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on September 10, 2021, 01:29:58 PM
They didn't try to she obviously had a reaction - severe respiratory difficulties then cardiac arrest she was I think 64.The family is stunned/pissed.If everyone today started getting cancer treatments or diabetes treatments or heart medications that didn't need it I'm guessing there could be problems .One type of drug can't possibly work on everyone as somebody will have an underlying condition or an allergic reaction.I can remember one time in my adult life that i've had the flu,I've never gotten a flu shot either.I've had shots but not those kinds
BTW all deaths after a vaccine must be reported to VAERS. So I assume her doctor did so. 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/adverse-events.html

Do you by any chance know which vaccine it was? J&J had a higher rate of something called TTS (was reported in the media as "blood clots") and occurred primarily in women, albeit more likely in women under 50. Shortness of breath is one of the possible symptoms. I don't know if it typically presents that quickly--I believe the concern was that it might appear as a side effect in the first few weeks following vaccination. 

The more likely cause would be anaphylaxis, which is an allergic reaction. One of the symptoms is respiratory difficulties. This is why providers require you to stick around 15 minutes after the shot (and for her first shot, my wife was asked to stay 30 minutes as she'd had a previous reaction to a vaccine as a baby). I hadn't heard of anyone having an anaphylactic reaction 3 hours later, but maybe that's the case here. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 10, 2021, 01:47:23 PM
Look I don't know the family but have volunteered with the deceased cousin for 3 1/2 years.Many of the volunteers were at the funeral as it's a faith based group and the rest of us worked a lot longer hours pulling up the slack.I saw her yesterday at  the food pantry I'll have cindy call and ask her.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on September 10, 2021, 01:50:39 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 10, 2021, 09:33:03 AM
Is that a done deal?  Is OSHA making it an emergency safety requirement for private entities?  And if so, what's the reach?

That would be a... big deal... IMO.




This is what I’m getting at. OSHA has never really had the pedestal for maintaining authority over public health standards, which under most legalities falls to different organizations such as the CDC. 

OSHA motions on physical safety standards such as fall protection, hazardous chemicals, etc. And as far as any medically oriented activities go, the closest OSHA comes is to clarify conditions for private employer’s ability to conduct workplace drug testing, usually favoring employer discretion and rarely outright forbidding most scenarios of drug testing.

Given how quickly this looks like it’s going into the courts, this sets up very similarly to the Court’s recent ruling on whether the CDC had the proper institutional authority to dictate sweeping national eviction policies, a legality that is traditionally way outside the realm of someone like the CDC. 

Similarly the angle taken by lawsuits against private employer mandates will be whether it’s in OSHA’s realm to enforce vaccinations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 10, 2021, 04:24:43 PM
"I know people..."
"There are studies..."
"People are saying..."

These are the phrases used by people failing at pretending to be valid.  
They're not valid.
Ignore them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 11, 2021, 07:36:50 AM
Quote from: utee94 on September 10, 2021, 09:33:03 AM

Is that a done deal?  Is OSHA making it an emergency safety requirement for private entities?  And if so, what's the reach?

That would be a... big deal... IMO.


Without getting into the politics, I’m unconvinced of the enforceability of this. Mostly because I think it has to go through Congress.

That said, apparently from what I’ve read, there’s a fair amount of discretion that either private businesses have in compelling folks to get vaccinated to government has in telling places to tell businesses to tell people to get vaccinated. Maybe both. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 12, 2021, 08:49:09 AM
A company has no ability to determine whether an employee is vaccinated that I can imagine.  They can ask, and that's it.  These vaccine cards are easily duplicated, and I don't think an employee has to provide any information.  I don't see how this can work.  Has there been anything remotely similar with companies in the past?

I can't see how this can be enforced.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 12, 2021, 08:51:28 AM
France is headed down, the UK MAY have peaked again, Florida and Georgia appear to be headed down we all hope.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 12, 2021, 08:54:06 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/Jd6XWKd.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 12, 2021, 08:57:37 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/R4bQi7n.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 12, 2021, 10:34:46 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 12, 2021, 08:49:09 AM
A company has no ability to determine whether an employee is vaccinated that I can imagine.  They can ask, and that's it.  These vaccine cards are easily duplicated, and I don't think an employee has to provide any information.  I don't see how this can work.  Has there been anything remotely similar with companies in the past?

I can't see how this can be enforced.
I assume it would depend on the state, but companies have fairly wide latitude on that front. The ability is fairly simple: if you don't get vaccinated, you can't work for us. 

There are certain things you can't do that with (disability status, race, gender, etc.). But unvaccinated isn't one of them. And a lot of places require it becuase if you work either with the public or alongside people, it can become a thing. It's even fairly common to require a vaccine. Now, this vaccine is treated as special, but if it's categorized just as a vaccine, it really isn't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 12, 2021, 10:36:36 AM
Read this from a sports writer. I know it's just one incident, not proving of anything, but still sad. I know we talk about taking our chances, and sometimes, that's what this is. 

https://time.com/6096505/covid-19-vaccine-hesitancy-family/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 12, 2021, 10:37:31 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 10, 2021, 09:57:42 AM
My BIL believes everyone who is vaxxed will be dead within 3-5 years. Because "there are studies". He has not produced such studies.
If this is the case, I'm going to have to start dropping my standards on Tinder considerably. Might as well get more in before I go. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 12, 2021, 11:20:19 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on September 12, 2021, 10:34:46 AM
I assume it would depend on the state, but companies have fairly wide latitude on that front. The ability is fairly simple: if you don't get vaccinated, you can't work for us.

There are certain things you can't do that with (disability status, race, gender, etc.). But unvaccinated isn't one of them. And a lot of places require it becuase if you work either with the public or alongside people, it can become a thing. It's even fairly common to require a vaccine. Now, this vaccine is treated as special, but if it's categorized just as a vaccine, it really isn't.
How would a company KNOW I was vaccinated?  That's my point.  

I don't believe they can access my health records without my permission, right?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 12, 2021, 12:15:48 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 12, 2021, 11:20:19 AM
How would a company KNOW I was vaccinated?  That's my point. 

I don't believe they can access my health records without my permission, right?
Companies require employees to take random drug tests so I would think they could require employees to take an antibody test

I have no problem with private companies requiring an employee be vaccinated

I do have a problem when the government requires it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 12, 2021, 12:28:56 PM
There would be a range of antibody activity among those vaccinated, and of course a previously infected would have some level. 

I think companies will simply ask, and some employees will say "None of your business."

What then?  Fire the employee?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 12, 2021, 01:14:17 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 12, 2021, 12:28:56 PM
There would be a range of antibody activity among those vaccinated, and of course a previously infected would have some level.

I think companies will simply ask, and some employees will say "None of your business."

What then?  Fire the employee?

yes
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 12, 2021, 01:15:03 PM
I've got a few employees who will absolutely not get the vaccine. Two of them have had the virus, and one is based on religion.

We are not over 100 people, so no worries. But, I'd hate to lose even one employee over this, particularly because they are all very good, and also due to the shortage in people to hire.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 12, 2021, 01:23:29 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 12, 2021, 01:15:03 PM
I've got a few employees who will absolutely not get the vaccine. Two of them have had the virus, and one is based on religion.

We are not over 100 people, so no worries. But, I'd hate to lose even one employee over this, particularly because they are all very good, and also due to the shortage in people to hire.
many companies get around this be allowing the employee to work but wearing a mask or maybe work from home

its not a democracy its a privately held company and as long as there is no discrimination involved the company can require vaccination or at least an antibody test

again the mask wearing might be a way to satisfy both parties
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 12, 2021, 01:34:27 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 12, 2021, 01:15:03 PM
I've got a few employees who will absolutely not get the vaccine. Two of them have had the virus, and one is based on religion.

We are not over 100 people, so no worries. But, I'd hate to lose even one employee over this, particularly because they are all very good, and also due to the shortage in people to hire.
I'll be interested if there's any client-side pushback in places. Like if clients decline to work with someone who could theoretically get them more sick. 

That said, I don't know the dynamics of your shop. That matters a lot. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 12, 2021, 02:28:12 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 12, 2021, 01:15:03 PM
I've got a few employees who will absolutely not get the vaccine. Two of them have had the virus, and one is based on religion.
So bad ideas all around then?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 12, 2021, 02:41:40 PM
Having had the virus is better immunity than being vaccinated, we are slowly learning.

I don't get the religion thing, but then again, I'm not part of one that is anti-vax (all vax).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 12, 2021, 02:44:02 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on September 12, 2021, 01:34:27 PM
I'll be interested if there's any client-side pushback in places. Like if clients decline to work with someone who could theoretically get them more sick.

That said, I don't know the dynamics of your shop. That matters a lot.
We have had one incident. A client called the office and asked why we had the audacity to send an unvaccinated survey tech to his site. He was pissed.

We... work outside... with no contact... when we are working... on site...

Those are the clients I don't mind losing. We've got plenty of good ones (too many) to have shitty ones.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 12, 2021, 03:21:42 PM
New Studies Find Evidence Of 'Superhuman' Immunity To COVID-19 In Some People : Goats and Soda : NPR (https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/09/07/1033677208/new-studies-find-evidence-of-superhuman-immunity-to-covid-19-in-some-individuals)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 12, 2021, 04:39:47 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 12, 2021, 02:41:40 PM
Having had the virus is better immunity than being vaccinated, we are slowly learning.
And there is significant evidence that having the virus and subsequently getting vaccinated is better than either. It's unclear whether the full benefit requires two shots or only one, if you've had the virus naturally, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on September 12, 2021, 09:29:35 PM
My company has a bona fide medical dept ( very large chemical co). There is a md, nurses, etc. About every three years we have a medical checkup. Give blood, check bp, hearing check. We were required to send our vaccine card to the medical dept via the Mychart app. If you’re not vaccinated you must continue to wear your mask etc. of course they loosened up the rules but recently tightened them up with the surge. So far it’s not a hard requirement but we’ll see what happens with the new mandates. I did get the vaccine so I uploaded it to my file. I also reported to the medical dept when I had COVID and had to be cleared to return. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 12, 2021, 09:36:16 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 12, 2021, 01:23:29 PM
again the mask wearing might be a way to satisfy both parties
mask wearing does nearly nothing 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on September 13, 2021, 12:16:38 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 12, 2021, 04:39:47 PM
And there is significant evidence that having the virus and subsequently getting vaccinated is better than either. It's unclear whether the full benefit requires two shots or only one, if you've had the virus naturally, though.
I should have a high degree of immunity, as I had the Pfizer vaccine, and I had asymptomatic COVID-19. But, I am not sure how much protection asymptomatic COVID-19 provides, or if possibly the asymptomatic part tells me I have an awesome immune system. I suspect it tells me the 20-minute exposure I had to two infected clients while wearing a surgical mask resulted in me receiving very little viral load. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on September 13, 2021, 12:17:27 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 12, 2021, 09:36:16 PM
mask wearing does nearly nothing
How effective is a mask in preventing COVID‐19 infection? (nih.gov) (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7883189/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 13, 2021, 12:59:51 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 12, 2021, 09:36:16 PM
mask wearing does nearly nothing
Depends on who is wearing it.  Gee, with all these anti-vaxers and anti-maskers, it's a wonder this thing spread worldwide.  We must have just been unlucky.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 13, 2021, 07:48:04 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on September 13, 2021, 12:16:38 AM
I should have a high degree of immunity, as I had the Pfizer vaccine, and I had asymptomatic COVID-19. But, I am not sure how much protection asymptomatic COVID-19 provides, or if possibly the asymptomatic part tells me I have an awesome immune system. I suspect it tells me the 20-minute exposure I had to two infected clients while wearing a surgical mask resulted in me receiving very little viral load.
this tells me an elementary kid in proximity to 20 other kids 8 hours a day week after week while wearing a cloth mask isn't going to help much at all

it also tells me going to a busy walmart with a cloth mask is taking a considerable risk 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 13, 2021, 08:08:55 AM
I'll wear a mask when I have to. Otherwise I will not.

Flying to Chicago next week for a wedding. I guess we have to wear a mask in there too, as health inspectors will be spying on everyone to make sure. Fun stuff.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 13, 2021, 08:48:32 AM
I'm still trying to imagine what I'd do were I still employed (large company etc.).  Would they fire me for cause if I refused to respond?

Maybe.  What percentage of employees (100,000+) would refuse to respond, or say "NO!".  What percentage would lie and say "YES!".

These cards are easily photocopied.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 13, 2021, 08:49:36 AM
And bear in mind, the employer doesn't want to fire people needlessly either.  They can simply ask, and record responses and say everyone is vaxxed.  OSHA won't be checking every company out there, nor could they in real terms.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 13, 2021, 09:01:04 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 13, 2021, 07:48:04 AM
this tells me an elementary kid in proximity to 20 other kids 8 hours a day week after week while wearing a cloth mask isn't going to help much at all

it also tells me going to a busy walmart with a cloth mask is taking a considerable risk
Why?  Unless there's a long line at checkout and you're standing next to the same people for 20 minutes or more?

That's certainly not been my experience at retail or grocery stores, though.  I consider them to be quite safe, actually.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 13, 2021, 09:14:12 AM
My GUESS is you're at risk if someone near you sneezes or coughs or yells and is infected.  A mask would block SOME of the expectorant.  So would a hand.

The CFB games look to me like an ideal spreading environment.  They are outdoors at least.

Florida really looks to be on the downslope now.  Ohio looks to be heading up though, so the regionality MAY be a thing.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 13, 2021, 09:38:19 AM
Quote from: utee94 on September 13, 2021, 09:01:04 AM
Why?  Unless there's a long line at checkout and you're standing next to the same people for 20 minutes or more?

That's certainly not been my experience at retail or grocery stores, though.  I consider them to be quite safe, actually.
I stated "busy", meaning crowded.  Most folks in Walmarts aren't smart enough to social distance and I'm quite sure it doesn't take 20 minutes to contract a virus

we are and have been seeing too many deaths and hospitalizations for places to be deemed safe.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 13, 2021, 09:38:58 AM
Sure you could get sneezed on in a store.  Hasn't happened to me yet in the past year and a half, but I suppose it's possible.  At the distances I maintain from people in general, even pre-COVID, it's not much of a danger.

I think it would be much harder to avoid something like that packed into a stadium with 100,000 other people all shoulder to shoulder.

But also, I'm vaccinated and not particularly worried about it.  The vaccine does a far better job than the mask.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 13, 2021, 09:40:47 AM
Imagine you are CEO of a small company with 125 employees.  You know them all, and they are all needed to get your job done.

So, this rule comes down and you have one HR/regulatory person.  What do you do?

You ask, and say 20 say "none of your business" and 10 say "nope".

Are you going to fire them all in this environment?  Or will you make a record of their responses and hope OSHA doesn't visit?  Or lie?  You could simply "suggest" quietly that everyone say "yes" and record that, OSHA would have no way of knowing.

And then rely on the courts to upend this eventually?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 13, 2021, 09:41:03 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 13, 2021, 09:38:19 AM
I stated "busy", meaning crowded.  Most folks in Walmarts aren't smart enough to social distance and I'm quite sure it doesn't take 20 minutes to contract a virus

we are and have been seeing too many deaths and hospitalizations for places to be deemed safe.


Why are you quite sure of this, when the science tells us prolonged exposure is what causes transmission?

Droplets can too, so don't let the Walmart shoppers spit directly into your mouth.  Of course, that should go without saying regardless.

And then there's the vaccine.  Get vaccinated and you don't have to worry about any of that stuff, unless you really want to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 13, 2021, 09:42:23 AM
Had Covid. Got vaccinated. Happy.

I'll wear the damn mask and be unhappy, while turning into my old self: 

Mr. Bummer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 13, 2021, 09:43:55 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 13, 2021, 09:40:47 AM
Imagine you are CEO of a small company with 125 employees.  You know them all, and they are all needed to get your job done.

So, this rule comes down and you have one HR/regulatory person.  What do you do?

You ask, and say 20 say "none of your business" and 10 say "nope".

Are you going to fire them all in this environment?  Or will you make a record of their responses and hope OSHA doesn't visit?  Or lie?  You could simply "suggest" quietly that everyone say "yes" and record that, OSHA would have no way of knowing.

And then rely on the courts to upend this eventually?

State governor in Texas is already calling it out as Federal overreach, and I agree.

Obviously I understand the irony of a governor that attempted to ban municipalities from creating their own local laws, calling out overreach from the next-higher level of government, but I sided with the locals on that one as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 13, 2021, 09:47:19 AM
prolonged exposure increases the probability that droplets or particles will eventually be spread, but it could certainly happen within the first minute

if the only way this thing was spread was through spittle droplets into your mouth or 20+ minutes within close proximity, we wouldn't have these numbers

I agree about the vaccine, I just don't agree that a cloth mask is effective 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 13, 2021, 09:54:17 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 13, 2021, 09:47:19 AM
prolonged exposure increases the probability that droplets or particles will eventually be spread, but it could certainly happen within the first minute

if the only way this thing was spread was through spittle droplets into your mouth or 20+ minutes within close proximity, we wouldn't have these numbers

I agree about the vaccine, I just don't agree that a cloth mask is effective

The cloth mask can stop droplets.  Some of them anyway.  It won't stop the virus from being exhaled.  Which is why it's useless in prolonged exposure situations.

But you're wrong, that non-droplet exposure will transmit the virus if it's short duration.  There's plenty of science that backs up the fact that it must be prolonged exposure, to transmit sufficient viral load, to complete the transmission.  In fact, the original numbers a year ago had it at 15 minutes, and the most of the data is now saying 20.

This is why the cloth masks and surgical masks are proving useless in schools.  Kids are sitting well within 6 feet of each other for an hour-long class. Only N95 masks would prevent transmission under those circumstances.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 13, 2021, 11:57:37 AM
I still don't see how this can work with smaller companies, I just don't, at all.  I suspect large companies will just ask and keep a record and folks can lie, or be fired.

Get fired for being truthful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 13, 2021, 12:08:04 PM
The very very large company I work for has advised that it's monitoring the situation but no actions are being taken yet.

My company is headquartered in Texas, and the state government is challenging the Federal mandate and will likely push it to a court battle, so companies within Texas will wait and see, until this is decided.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 13, 2021, 12:09:02 PM
Quote from: Gigem on September 12, 2021, 09:29:35 PM
My company has a bona fide medical dept ( very large chemical co). There is a md, nurses, etc. About every three years we have a medical checkup. Give blood, check bp, hearing check. We were required to send our vaccine card to the medical dept via the Mychart app. If you’re not vaccinated you must continue to wear your mask etc. of course they loosened up the rules but recently tightened them up with the surge. So far it’s not a hard requirement but we’ll see what happens with the new mandates. I did get the vaccine so I uploaded it to my file. I also reported to the medical dept when I had COVID and had to be cleared to return.
Interesting... Is the medical dept actually owned and operated by the company? Or is that contracted out to a private provider? 

My company has on-site health clinics at our larger facilities, but it's operated by an outside hospital group for privacy reasons. Tons of really good financial benefits by keeping it in-house, and it's convenient for employees, but they deliberately didn't operate it themselves due to those privacy reasons. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 13, 2021, 12:11:07 PM
When I started, we had an MD and nurses on site and you could get an annual physical, but that was reduced to a nurse over time, one nurse part time for maybe 700 workers.  Nothing was manufacturing there.

We had a large and less than useless HR department though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on September 13, 2021, 12:56:26 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 13, 2021, 12:09:02 PM
Interesting... Is the medical dept actually owned and operated by the company? Or is that contracted out to a private provider?

My company has on-site health clinics at our larger facilities, but it's operated by an outside hospital group for privacy reasons. Tons of really good financial benefits by keeping it in-house, and it's convenient for employees, but they deliberately didn't operate it themselves due to those privacy reasons.
No, it's all done in-house.  Some of the nurses are contractors, some are company employees.  The MD is a company doctor.  

They do it because in our industry they have to monitor for health concerns, being that we make carcinogens and such.  We also get fitted for wearing a respirator yearly.  If there is an injury, either job related or non-job related you have to go through them for a release to work.  They also do a hearing check yearly.  

We also have the company sponsored medical clinic where you can get check-ups and other needs. It's a completely separate entity, but you have to be an employee of the company to get served.  They have real Dr.'s and nurses there as well.    It's really a good deal, ran by a group called Quad Med.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 13, 2021, 01:02:19 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 13, 2021, 12:08:04 PM
The very very large company I work for has advised that it's monitoring the situation but no actions are being taken yet.
Same here. Got an email from HR referencing the requirement, but that they were awaiting more info.

After all, POTUS basically told OSHA to draft up the rules in accordance with this 100-employee mandate, but I'm sure they might take some time to do it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 13, 2021, 01:03:34 PM
Quote from: Gigem on September 13, 2021, 12:56:26 PM
They do it because in our industry they have to monitor for health concerns, being that we make carcinogens and such.  We also get fitted for wearing a respirator yearly.  If there is an injury, either job related or non-job related you have to go through them for a release to work.  They also do a hearing check yearly. 
Ahh that makes sense. We're a bunch of office workers ;-) 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 13, 2021, 01:10:12 PM
We had over 2,000 chemicals in out lab, some requirement came down that we had to inventory them.  That took a few days for no purpose.  Our boss' boss wanted us to memorize the MSD for all of them.  He was a dope.  Then he wanted us to get rid of nearly all of them.  He was really a dope.

It often costs more to dispose of a chemical than to buy it in the first place.

Then we had to put expiration dates on chemicals, which makes sense for a few items.  We had an expiration date on sand that we used for chromatography, sand.

When some expired, I changed the date on year.  But I digress.

How do you think smaller companies will really respond to this OSHA edict?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on September 13, 2021, 01:15:22 PM
Franklin County (where Columbus is) is adopting a policy similar. All Franklin County employees must provide two negative screens a week unless they are vaccinated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 13, 2021, 01:20:36 PM
That isn't similar, in my mind, versus requiring everyone to  be vaxxed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 13, 2021, 01:28:09 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 13, 2021, 01:20:36 PM
That isn't similar, in my mind, versus requiring everyone to  be vaxxed.
Eh, it's not far off. I'm guessing that the employees will have to cover the cost of the screenings. The rapid tests (if that's what they require) are not cheap. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 13, 2021, 01:33:36 PM
So, how do you think the myriad companies with 100-1,000 employees handle this?

I'm pretty sure some won't do anything at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 13, 2021, 01:36:33 PM
they will put out a formal statement and perhaps an adder to the policy manual

then do nothing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 13, 2021, 01:50:47 PM
It looks like we have peaked on new cases

hope so anyway
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 13, 2021, 01:56:56 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 13, 2021, 01:33:36 PM
So, how do you think the myriad companies with 100-1,000 employees handle this?

I'm pretty sure some won't do anything at all.
It probably depends on how OSHA writes up the regulations. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on September 13, 2021, 01:57:25 PM
The early signs are that the pandemic in Minnesota is stuck on a plateau. The first week of the State Fair and the first home Gopher game sans masks (VERY few people wore them at any point last Thursday night) appear to have come and gone without breaking the logjam.

https://twitter.com/dhmontgomery/status/1437452095070822405?s=20


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 13, 2021, 02:44:52 PM
It started to get really hot here... and people went inside. SPIKE!!

It's gonna get cold up North, and people will go inside. SPIKE!!

Hopefully enough people have had Covid or the vaccine, which would make me wrong. I'd be happy to be wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 13, 2021, 02:55:48 PM
The Florida surge started around July 5, I imagine it was hot before that.  It probably is still hot.

The Georgia surge started around July 14 and peaked around August 27.  And the previous wave was in January.

It's 88°F here at the moment.  

Staying inside more often MAY be a factor, no doubt, but it's not the only factor.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 13, 2021, 02:58:39 PM
Started to get really hot around June 1. A lot of vaccinations since that time, combined with natural immunity. 

The snowbirds are coming soon. We'll see what they bring with them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on September 13, 2021, 10:02:17 PM
https://twitter.com/davidzweig/status/1437498008304750595?s=20
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on September 13, 2021, 10:10:52 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmy8znrLPc0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HI5gtJ4ObpQ
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on September 13, 2021, 10:15:42 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haRMKsI-jKY
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 13, 2021, 11:07:51 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on September 13, 2021, 10:02:17 PM
https://twitter.com/davidzweig/status/1437498008304750595?s=20
Someone needs to explain to me how an asymptomatic covid case results in a hospital visit.  Please.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on September 13, 2021, 11:43:06 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 13, 2021, 11:07:51 PM
Someone needs to explain to me how an asymptomatic covid case results in a hospital visit.  Please. 
Easy. They were already there for other reasons. Happened to be COVID positive but asymptomatic.

Mild & Incidental makes lot of sense too. Lot of FKIN sheeple retards who get a cough and run to the hospital thinking they are going to die from COVID in 10 minutes because that's what the morons they watch on the news try to fill their stupid heads with. Media has literally become fake scare porn. And they invent shit out of whole cloth like that story about rural Oklahomans eating horse paste to battle COVID and then OD'ing and filling up ER's so much that gunshot victims can't get treated that Rolling Stone published and that disgusting man Rachel Maddow kept parroting on his stupid tv show while he makes $30,000 A DAY for filling stupid peoples heads with bullshit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 14, 2021, 12:29:32 AM

Quote from: Mdot21 on September 13, 2021, 10:02:17 PM

https://twitter.com/davidzweig/status/1437498008304750595?s=20
While interesting, that headline is pretty irresponsible. It’s basically a new, not yet reviewed study. And there are some weird selection biases, namely that its focused heavily on veterans. 

A friend’s wife did her residency at a VA hospital. She shared that you had a lot of folks who would come in with minor stuff because it was covered, and as older folks, they had the time to roll ok for a checkup just to get a free bottle of aspirin. 

That’s not to say it’s bunk, but to say, it’s gonna be run with as serious fact far more quickly than it should be. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 14, 2021, 08:00:32 AM
I wouldn't call it irresponsible. It's just reporting data - not scientific content.

How about this one? It was linked in the above article.

Study: Number of Kids Hospitalized for COVID Is Overcounted (nymag.com) (https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/05/study-number-of-kids-hospitalized-for-covid-is-overcounted.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 14, 2021, 08:04:30 AM
I've been to the ER a few times, and roughly half the other cases I hear about through curtains are hypochondriacs or simple items like "I have a pain".

Folks don't have access to PCPs so they use the ER, some go for anything and everything.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on September 14, 2021, 08:58:17 AM
The bigger question is this: why is anyone taking medical advice from Joe Rogan?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 14, 2021, 09:03:34 AM
I don't know that many are, and the "evidence" that IV is at all effective is, um, scant.

We've noted before how some folks base medical decisions on some weird claim by some public person with zero medical background.  GNC in my view makes a business out of this.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 14, 2021, 10:25:02 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 14, 2021, 08:00:32 AM
I wouldn't call it irresponsible. It's just reporting data - not scientific content.

How about this one? It was linked in the above article.

Study: Number of Kids Hospitalized for COVID Is Overcounted (nymag.com) (https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/05/study-number-of-kids-hospitalized-for-covid-is-overcounted.html)

I mean, the headline is "Our Most Reliable Pandemic Number Is Losing Meaning." So it's not couched. The earlier one actually has a better headline, with a bit more nuance and caution.

We're in this weird place where folks are mad at the media for misconstruing things and boiling them down to something that washes over the nuance, but this is constructed in a way to be waved around by folks who aim to do, just that. As we share this, what's the main takeaway for many? That situations are overblown, we're being lied to and we should really be thinking less about it.

And somewhere low in the article is a nice point: "The study also demonstrates that hospitalization rates for COVID, as cited by journalists and policy makers, can be misleading, if not considered carefully." This is true, but so too should we consider the study and its implications carefully. 

It's saying we should take those numbers with more context (we should, as we should take all numbers that way). And we should also take these numbers in context. They include impact of the vaccine, making more cases low-to-non-symtomatic, and that with the timeline, this was going to happen to a degree because we'd put the clamps on less serious hospital visits. So a nuanced takeaway, I'd think, is narrow: A spike now isn't a spike from back then, which is a good addition to a nuanced perspective. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 14, 2021, 10:40:17 AM
The thing is, is that many here, including me, have claimed from the beginning that the numbers were overstated. But that's not what you see and hear - the messaging sucks.

A prominent person in the current administration just tweeted this over the weekend:

(https://i.imgur.com/f33RFRF.png)


Protecting the vaccinated? What is the vaccine for again? The messaging has absolutely sucked on this thing - from the START.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 14, 2021, 12:36:17 PM
OK, here's yet another reason not to get vaccinated!



(https://i.imgur.com/9h7mRBR.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 14, 2021, 12:50:51 PM
Obviously.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 14, 2021, 01:41:34 PM
Messenging has been awful, but the "Real Story", if there is one, if fairly complex, and we have politicians "explaining" to us, badly.  I've never seen a topic with this much misinformation abounding out there.  And I see a difference between discussing topics like we do here and some of the crap being purveyed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 14, 2021, 02:09:56 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 14, 2021, 01:41:34 PM
Messenging has been awful, but the "Real Story", if there is one, if fairly complex, and we have politicians "explaining" to us, badly.  I've never seen a topic with this much misinformation abounding out there.  And I see a difference between discussing topics like we do here and some of the crap being purveyed.
First things first, I'm not going to include "the media" or social media in the messaging. There are too many outlets and too many people with agendas. Most consumers of such material do so via confirmation bias, and only listen to or read or watch the media/social outlets that give them their own preconceived notions back at them. 

But IMHO the messaging was terrible top to bottom by the former POTUS, the current POTUS, the CDC, Fauci, and (I can speak for my own state only) my own governor and CA dept of public health. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 14, 2021, 02:20:55 PM
I am agreeing entirely, but I find it typical when a topic is fairly complex.  I find the "messenging" to be just as bad on any other technical topic, take climate change for example.  I don't even include the tripe I see on social media.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on September 15, 2021, 12:56:07 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 14, 2021, 01:41:34 PM
Messenging has been awful, but the "Real Story", if there is one, if fairly complex, and we have politicians "explaining" to us, badly.  I've never seen a topic with this much misinformation abounding out there.  And I see a difference between discussing topics like we do here and some of the crap being purveyed.
Vaccinate, it is not too complex. Vaccines started at least as early as the 1700s; General Washington required it. Every state has vaccine requirements. 
I read about a 5th vaccine radio opinion disbeliever guy who died from COVID yesterday.  I personally have known five people who died from this, all before the vaccine. I am aware of not one person dead from the vaccine. There might be one dead in the U.S.A, but there were about 200 million people vaccinated. About 1 in 700 are dead from COVID-19. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on September 15, 2021, 07:30:17 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on September 14, 2021, 08:58:17 AM
The bigger question is this: why is anyone taking medical advice from Joe Rogan?
who is taking medical advice from Joe Rogan? 

His show is fantastic by the way, you will get more truthful information and learn more watching that guys podcast on Spotify than you could ever get watching CNN/FOX/MSNBC.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 15, 2021, 10:42:45 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on September 15, 2021, 12:56:07 AM
Vaccinate, it is not too complex. Vaccines started at least as early as the 1700s; General Washington required it. Every state has vaccine requirements.
I read about a 5th vaccine radio opinion disbeliever guy who died from COVID yesterday.  I personally have known five people who died from this, all before the vaccine. I am aware of not one person dead from the vaccine. There might be one dead in the U.S.A, but there were about 200 million people vaccinated. About 1 in 700 are dead from COVID-19.

seems just this simple to me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 15, 2021, 02:05:46 PM
Aspects are simple, but the Whole Story is not, in my opinion, and has not been conveyed very well nor clearly.

Masks, distancing, infection rates and odds, chance you get it from a surface, chance you get it indoors, or out, chances it will be bad, chances you will die, antibodies and T cells, the false positive rates on various tests, how fast vaccine efficacy wanes, ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 15, 2021, 02:10:18 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 15, 2021, 02:05:46 PM
Aspects are simple, but the Whole Story is not, in my opinion, and has not been conveyed very well nor clearly.

Masks, distancing, infection rates and odds, chance you get it from a surface, chance you get it indoors, or out, chances it will be bad, chances you will die, antibodies and T cells, the false positive rates on various tests, how fast vaccine efficacy wanes, ...
Well said.

I'd highlight one more aspect of ALL of these...

The understanding that in a novel virus, we don't know everything. So when something is said and then two months later our understanding of the evidence has proven that to be wrong and it's time to change our recommendations, that is NORMAL and EXPECTED in this type of situation. It's not a lie unless someone was distorting or suppressing the scientific understanding at the time of the previous recommendation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 16, 2021, 10:45:56 AM
yes, well said, but it's foolish to try to understand the whole story when it's as large as this and the sources for information are poor and not trustworthy

keep it simple as Utee states - just focus on the vax
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 16, 2021, 10:51:43 AM
It's marketing/branding 101.

KISS

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on September 16, 2021, 02:57:16 PM
smoking gun from the intercept:

https://theintercept.com/2021/09/09/covid-origins-gain-of-function-research/


Fauci lied under oath to Congress. Which is a felony perjury charge. Will anything happen to him? Of course not.

But there it is, plain as day thanks to some great reporting by The Intercept. Wuhan lab was doing gain of function research on bat coronaviruses AND the NIH was funding the lab- despite the US gov't having put a pause on gain of function research.

DOCUMENTS OBTAINED BY The Intercept contain new evidence that the Wuhan Institute of Virology and the nearby Wuhan University Center for Animal Experiment, along with their collaborator, the U.S.-based nonprofit EcoHealth Alliance, have engaged in what the U.S. government defines as “gain-of-function research of concern,” intentionally making viruses more pathogenic or transmissible in order to study them, despite stipulations from a U.S. funding agency that the money not be used for that purpose.

Grant money for the controversial experiment came from the National Institutes of Health’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which is headed by Anthony Fauci. The award to EcoHealth Alliance, a research organization which studies the spread of viruses from animals to humans, included subawards to Wuhan Institute of Virology and East China Normal University. The principal investigator on the grant is EcoHealth Alliance President Peter Daszak, who has been a key voice in the search for Covid-19’s origins.



This is not political at all. There is no evidence any of the money that was funneled from the NIH to the Wuhan lab went towards a specific experiment which caused this pandemic. But point blank period, Anthony Fauci is a proven liar. Many times over. The emails the Washington Post reported on showed this. And he's trying to cover his own ass and he lied under oath to congress. Which is a felony. Any one of us do that- we'd be nailed to the cross. Nothing at all will happen to him. He was trying to be cute and play word games. NIH funds went to gain of function research at Wuhan lab. Period. No way for him to weasel his way out of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 20, 2021, 09:32:31 AM
U.S. Covid cases dip from latest peak, but delta still rising in some states (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/13/us-covid-cases-dip-from-latest-peak-but-delta-still-rising-in-some-states.html?recirc=taboolainternal)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 20, 2021, 09:34:38 AM
DOCUMENTS OBTAINED BY The Intercept contain new evidence that the Wuhan Institute of Virology and the nearby Wuhan University Center for Animal Experiment, along with their collaborator, the U.S.-based nonprofit EcoHealth Alliance, have engaged in what the U.S. government defines as “gain-of-function research of concern,” intentionally making viruses more pathogenic or transmissible in order to study them, despite stipulations from a U.S. funding agency that the money not be used for that purpose.

I see a lot of weasel words in that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 20, 2021, 09:40:28 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/VrxSR7J.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 20, 2021, 09:41:25 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/3nfizve.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on September 20, 2021, 10:18:48 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 20, 2021, 09:34:38 AM
DOCUMENTS OBTAINED BY The Intercept contain new evidence that the Wuhan Institute of Virology and the nearby Wuhan University Center for Animal Experiment, along with their collaborator, the U.S.-based nonprofit EcoHealth Alliance, have engaged in what the U.S. government defines as “gain-of-function research of concern,” intentionally making viruses more pathogenic or transmissible in order to study them, despite stipulations from a U.S. funding agency that the money not be used for that purpose.

I see a lot of weasel words in that.
I don't see any weasel words.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 20, 2021, 10:51:16 AM
It's a weasel paragraph.  "Documents obtained", "new evidence", "US based non-profit" who is somehow related to Fauci?

Wuhan may have made GoF studies unbeknownst to other folks.  Or not.

GoF strikes me as in the eyes of the beholder.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 20, 2021, 07:03:00 PM
I put a mask on for the first time in months Sunday afternoon - the mayor of Lincoln NE likes masks

no masks in OKC or Norman, OK

the good news?...  My daughter and her boyfriend each got the vax today.  They are around 25 years old.

the motivation to do it now?????  a concert in Kansas City is requiring proof.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 21, 2021, 08:02:15 AM
^^^^

That's the kind of stuff that's gonna tip people in.

If only the messaging was more clear, we wouldn't have to coax people to get it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 21, 2021, 08:51:39 AM
ACL Festival here in Austin is requiring proof of vaccination, or a negative test within 72 hours, for entry.  Hopefully it spurs some folks to get vaccinated, knowing that the logistics of 200,000 people getting negative tests in the area, all at the same time, will be challenging.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 21, 2021, 09:07:17 AM
the negative test can cost $$ and is only good once

the Vax is free and is good for a season of events

easy decision
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 21, 2021, 09:10:58 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 21, 2021, 09:07:17 AM
the negative test can cost $$ and is only good once

the Vax is free and is good for a season of events

easy decision
Makes sense to me.  I'm already vaxed but if I weren't, and wanted to attend the festival, it'd probably urge me to do so.

Of course, I hate crowds and I haven't been to a large music festival in years.  Probably decades at this point.  Just not my cup of tea.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on September 21, 2021, 09:16:40 AM
Quote from: utee94 on September 21, 2021, 09:10:58 AM
Makes sense to me.  I'm already vaxed but if I weren't, and wanted to attend the festival, it'd probably urge me to do so.

Of course, I hate crowds and I haven't been to a large music festival in years.  Probably decades at this point.  Just not my cup of tea.
Word.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 21, 2021, 09:41:42 AM
Same.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 21, 2021, 09:48:46 AM
I see some "Project Veritas" video with some doctor disparaging the vax making the rounds today.  

I'm pretty sure I could find MDs somewhere who claimed the moon landings were faked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on September 21, 2021, 02:56:11 PM
Project Veritas contains very little of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 21, 2021, 02:57:27 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on September 21, 2021, 02:56:11 PM
Project Veritas contains very little of it.
es verdad
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 21, 2021, 06:41:11 PM
I agree, they distort stories by selective editing (which is not unusual of course).

I thought it would make a bigger splash in social media than it has thus far.  I tried to get some background on the MD cited and found nothing on line, a lot for folks with very similar names who are MDs.  It's a bit curious.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 22, 2021, 08:59:53 AM
This two month "wave" thing is mostly real, outside the UK and Brazil.  I can't explain it, it was most prominent in India, a country with few vaxes.

Florida is headed down clearly now.  Georgia is trending down apparently just to the north.  Ohio further north?  Might be at a peak, hard to tell.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on September 22, 2021, 09:09:44 AM


Here is our local county data.  Higher than ever last few weeks/months, trending down.  (https://i.imgur.com/knEFpqu.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 22, 2021, 09:23:31 AM
Things heating up in Wisconsin.

(https://i.imgur.com/q3qcoa8.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/usyaJal.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 22, 2021, 09:24:31 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/F06L4Jm.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on September 22, 2021, 10:26:05 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 10, 2021, 12:56:29 PM
You know "plenty of people" who are still sick, weeks or months after the shot?

How many? Can you elaborate on their symptoms? Have they sought treatment? Have any doctors confirmed that they are experiencing adverse reactions to the shot?

I know tons who have gotten the shot, and zero fit that category. I'm guessing if we polled here, everyone except you would say that they know zero people with long term effects from the shot.

You'd have to be a giant statistical outlier to know "plenty"... So I'm looking for a little more background on this one.


I’ll admit I am in the throes of enduring adverse physical fallout from my first recent Pfizer shot, to the point I’m not looking forward to the second shot.

Symptoms include in order of severity: 1) Extreme lower back pain to the point that walking and moving about is at times impossible, 2) The sense of often being on the verge of vomiting, 3) Digestive difficulties, specifically having bouts of constantly needing to pee every five minutes, and 4) Shooting muscle pains that have since migrated from shoulders into legs. I’ve had symptoms like this for various reasons before, but not all at once, or immediately firing up altogether after a singular event, such as a shot.

In thinking over my options forward:

It isn’t practical for me to simply skip the 2nd shot. Not after my employer has stepped up their vaccine mandates, making our working lives more restrictive unless we’re vaccinated.

I can make an appointment with my Doctor and rather than asking for an exemption from the 2nd shot, I can ask for a several month’s delay. Receiving medical permission for a delay is a more realistic request due to how much of a promotor my Doctor and his staff are of the Covid Vaccines. Were my doctor to grant a full exemption, I’m not sure he wants to justify it to whoever he might answer to.

I could also “Report an Adverse Event to VAERS” - https://vaers.hhs.gov/reportevent.html

Let me know if you guys have better ideas; not really sure how to go about this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 22, 2021, 10:55:59 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on September 22, 2021, 10:26:05 AM

I’ll admit I am in the throes of enduring adverse physical fallout from my first recent Pfizer shot, to the point I’m not looking forward to the second shot.

Symptoms include in order of severity: 1) Extreme lower back pain to the point that walking and moving about is at times impossible, 2) The sense of often being on the verge of vomiting, 3) Digestive difficulties, specifically having bouts of constantly needing to pee every five minutes, and 4) Shooting muscle pains that have since migrated from shoulders into legs. I’ve had symptoms like this for various reasons before, but not all at once, or immediately firing up altogether after a singular event, such as a shot.

In thinking over my options forward:

It isn’t practical for me to simply skip the 2nd shot. Not after my employer has stepped up their vaccine mandates, making our working lives more restrictive unless we’re vaccinated.

I can make an appointment with my Doctor and rather than asking for an exemption from the 2nd shot, I can ask for a several month’s delay. Receiving medical permission for a delay is a more realistic request due to how much of a promotor my Doctor and his staff are of the Covid Vaccines. Were my doctor to grant a full exemption, I’m not sure he wants to justify it to whoever he might answer to.

I could also “Report an Adverse Event to VAERS” - https://vaers.hhs.gov/reportevent.html

Let me know if you guys have better ideas; not really sure how to go about this.
How long since you got the shot?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 22, 2021, 10:58:40 AM
Austin metro seems to be on a bit of a downward trend after a volatile plateau:

(https://i.imgur.com/toZd8vj.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 22, 2021, 11:09:27 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on September 22, 2021, 10:26:05 AM

I’ll admit I am in the throes of enduring adverse physical fallout from my first recent Pfizer shot, to the point I’m not looking forward to the second shot.

Symptoms include in order of severity: 1) Extreme lower back pain to the point that walking and moving about is at times impossible, 2) The sense of often being on the verge of vomiting, 3) Digestive difficulties, specifically having bouts of constantly needing to pee every five minutes, and 4) Shooting muscle pains that have since migrated from shoulders into legs. I’ve had symptoms like this for various reasons before, but not all at once, or immediately firing up altogether after a singular event, such as a shot.

In thinking over my options forward:

It isn’t practical for me to simply skip the 2nd shot. Not after my employer has stepped up their vaccine mandates, making our working lives more restrictive unless we’re vaccinated.

I can make an appointment with my Doctor and rather than asking for an exemption from the 2nd shot, I can ask for a several month’s delay. Receiving medical permission for a delay is a more realistic request due to how much of a promotor my Doctor and his staff are of the Covid Vaccines. Were my doctor to grant a full exemption, I’m not sure he wants to justify it to whoever he might answer to.

I could also “Report an Adverse Event to VAERS” - https://vaers.hhs.gov/reportevent.html

Let me know if you guys have better ideas; not really sure how to go about this.
Work with your doctor. My understanding is that these are not typical side effects to any of the shots, so first and foremost you want to rule out another thing that has occurred in coincidence with the shot. But if this was caused by the shot, your doctor should evaluate you to figure out what's going on--if these are all concurrent secondary symptoms of something like myocarditis, you'd want to get it looked it ASAP. 

And yes, you want it to be reported to VAERS. Your doctor can probably tell you whether that's something he should do, or something you can/should do on your own. 

As for what happens regarding the second shot, it may depend heavily on what your doctor finds. I'm not qualified to answer that one.

Hope you feel better soon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 22, 2021, 11:28:13 AM
Those are unusual symptoms I think.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 22, 2021, 11:32:26 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 22, 2021, 11:09:27 AM
Work with your doctor. My understanding is that these are not typical side effects to any of the shots, so first and foremost you want to rule out another thing that has occurred in coincidence with the shot. But if this was caused by the shot, your doctor should evaluate you to figure out what's going on--if these are all concurrent secondary symptoms of something like myocarditis, you'd want to get it looked it ASAP.

And yes, you want it to be reported to VAERS. Your doctor can probably tell you whether that's something he should do, or something you can/should do on your own.

As for what happens regarding the second shot, it may depend heavily on what your doctor finds. I'm not qualified to answer that one.

Hope you feel better soon.
All of this, yes. ASAP.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 22, 2021, 01:24:15 PM
Modelers Project A Calming Of The Pandemic In The U.S. This Winter : Shots - Health News : NPR (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/09/22/1039272244/is-the-worst-over-modelers-predict-a-steady-decline-in-covid-cases-through-march)


Interesting, but again, it's a model.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 22, 2021, 01:32:19 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 22, 2021, 01:24:15 PM
Modelers Project A Calming Of The Pandemic In The U.S. This Winter : Shots - Health News : NPR (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/09/22/1039272244/is-the-worst-over-modelers-predict-a-steady-decline-in-covid-cases-through-march)


Interesting, but again, it's a model.

If the model is assuming a decline in the southern states, and an increase in the northern states, for a blended average of a slow decline, then I could see that as reasonable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 22, 2021, 01:49:42 PM
That isn't a model really, it's what is happening.  I don't understand the waves at all and have never read a compelling explanation for them.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 22, 2021, 02:17:24 PM
It got hot here, and people were staying inside. The virus exploded. I think it's that simple.

Between the 70% vax rate and how many people had the virus (16%), I suspect we are close to having this thing covered here. Yeah, I know there is overlap, but still.

At least until the NE and MW folks start showing up with their Covid...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 22, 2021, 02:21:35 PM
The previous surge was in midwinter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 22, 2021, 02:25:55 PM
Right. Holidays, people coming down the NE and the MW, etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 22, 2021, 03:08:49 PM
Vaccinations are slowly but consistently increasing. Nationally we're at over 55% fully vaccinated and another ~10% partial. 

Delta is running its course through a hell of a lot of unvaccinated [and some vaccinated] people developing natural immunity. 

The most vulnerable groups tend to have the highest vax rates, so it's going to be primarily the young and healthy driving the case numbers, which is why the deaths haven't spiked nearly as badly as they did prior to vax availability. 

I'm guessing that soon the 5-to-11 age group will get approved for the vax. 

Eventually this starts approaching herd immunity, and cases will wane REGARDLESS of behavior, of weather, etc. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 22, 2021, 03:14:45 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 22, 2021, 03:08:49 PM
Vaccinations are slowly but consistently increasing. Nationally we're at over 55% fully vaccinated and another ~10% partial.

Delta is running its course through a hell of a lot of unvaccinated [and some vaccinated] people developing natural immunity.

The most vulnerable groups tend to have the highest vax rates, so it's going to be primarily the young and healthy driving the case numbers, which is why the deaths haven't spiked nearly as badly as they did prior to vax availability.

I'm guessing that soon the 5-to-11 age group will get approved for the vax.

Eventually this starts approaching herd immunity, and cases will wane REGARDLESS of behavior, of weather, etc.


Agree  but I'm not sure we'll see these effects kick in before what I anticipate to be another wave in Fall/Winter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 22, 2021, 03:30:04 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 22, 2021, 03:14:45 PM
Agree  but I'm not sure we'll see these effects kick in before what I anticipate to be another wave in Fall/Winter.
The wave if it happens will be way less then the previous winter IMHO unless of course theres a third variant lurking ready to pounce on us
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on September 22, 2021, 03:37:04 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 22, 2021, 03:08:49 PM
The most vulnerable groups tend to have the highest vax rates, so it's going to be primarily the young and healthy driving the case numbers, which is why the deaths haven't spiked nearly as badly as they did prior to vax availability.

I'm guessing that soon the 5-to-11 age group will get approved for the vax.

https://twitter.com/dhmontgomery/status/1440717238990897159?s=20
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 22, 2021, 03:58:43 PM
Yup GR, that correlates to what we were seeing down here about 4 weeks ago.  We went back to school on 8/13.  Our cases were declining in late August, then popped back up to a plateau for the last week of August and the first couple weeks of September, driven by school-aged kids.

This is what we've seen in my kids' school district:

(https://i.imgur.com/1G5553f.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 22, 2021, 04:44:00 PM
it looks like to me this surge peaked about a week ago 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 22, 2021, 04:45:21 PM
@GopherRock (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=47) Do you by any chance know what sort of requirements they have on kids in school? Are they masking?

It looks like MN is ahead of the national vax rates, so that should be good. But obviously kids under 12 can't be vaxxed, and I think many parents are more reticent to vaccinate their kids than even to vaccinate themselves from COVID, so I don't think the 12-17 demo is highly vaxxed yet. 

One big issue I've got with that tweet though is that it's talking about case GROWTH rates, not share of cases either total or share of the population in those demographics.

Generally COVID has been extraordinarily benign for kids prior to Delta. I think Delta has increased the rate of symptomatic illness in kids (as it has in all demographics), but the combination of low or zero (0-11 yo) vaccination rates among that demographic relative to older, and a low base level of infection with previous strains, will OF COURSE make the growth rate look huge. 

Anecdotally, I'm seeing more frequent emails from my kids' schools about cases that have occurred at their schools than I recall from the previous school year. So I'm not saying it's NOT growing... I just don't like the way that info was presented. It may look worse (or not as bad) as it is. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 22, 2021, 05:22:36 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 22, 2021, 04:45:21 PM
@GopherRock (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=47) Do you by any chance know what sort of requirements they have on kids in school? Are they masking?

It looks like MN is ahead of the national vax rates, so that should be good. But obviously kids under 12 can't be vaxxed, and I think many parents are more reticent to vaccinate their kids than even to vaccinate themselves from COVID, so I don't think the 12-17 demo is highly vaxxed yet.

One big issue I've got with that tweet though is that it's talking about case GROWTH rates, not share of cases either total or share of the population in those demographics.

Generally COVID has been extraordinarily benign for kids prior to Delta. I think Delta has increased the rate of symptomatic illness in kids (as it has in all demographics), but the combination of low or zero (0-11 yo) vaccination rates among that demographic relative to older, and a low base level of infection with previous strains, will OF COURSE make the growth rate look huge.

Anecdotally, I'm seeing more frequent emails from my kids' schools about cases that have occurred at their schools than I recall from the previous school year. So I'm not saying it's NOT growing... I just don't like the way that info was presented. It may look worse (or not as bad) as it is.
If you look at the graph I posted for my kids' school district, you can see the big spike starting in August of this year, but the graph goes all the way back to August 2020.  You can see that the previous largest spike, which coincides with the winter spike we saw across the entire country, is completely dwarfed by the new spike this schoolyear.

Delta is definitely affecting kids much more than did previous variants. 

Other variables are that this year, there's 100% in-person attendance, while last year ranged from about 40% early-on, to around 80% by the end of the schoolyear.

Masking is roughly the same.  Distancing certainly is not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on September 23, 2021, 11:19:28 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 22, 2021, 04:45:21 PM
@GopherRock (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=47) Do you by any chance know what sort of requirements they have on kids in school? Are they masking?

It looks like MN is ahead of the national vax rates, so that should be good. But obviously kids under 12 can't be vaxxed, and I think many parents are more reticent to vaccinate their kids than even to vaccinate themselves from COVID, so I don't think the 12-17 demo is highly vaxxed yet.

One big issue I've got with that tweet though is that it's talking about case GROWTH rates, not share of cases either total or share of the population in those demographics.

Generally COVID has been extraordinarily benign for kids prior to Delta. I think Delta has increased the rate of symptomatic illness in kids (as it has in all demographics), but the combination of low or zero (0-11 yo) vaccination rates among that demographic relative to older, and a low base level of infection with previous strains, will OF COURSE make the growth rate look huge.

Anecdotally, I'm seeing more frequent emails from my kids' schools about cases that have occurred at their schools than I recall from the previous school year. So I'm not saying it's NOT growing... I just don't like the way that info was presented. It may look worse (or not as bad) as it is.
Depends on the districts. Almost all of the big districts in Minnesota (including big ones outstate) are requiring everyone in the buildings to wear masks. Based on what I'm seeing in photos, enforcement of the policy leaves a lot to be desired.

Kind of surprised that the MSHSL didn't tie proof of COVID vaccination into the participation rules for HS activities, given that 12-yos were eligible some time ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 23, 2021, 01:43:11 PM
Herd immunity by exposure is fine with me, for those who have little chance of illness.

If deaths start to spike, I'll be concerned. Until then... herd immunity. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 23, 2021, 02:27:21 PM
As I've said before, we'll get there either by vaccination, or infection.

Those that eschew the former, are tacitly choosing the latter.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 23, 2021, 02:30:59 PM
Yeppers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 24, 2021, 07:58:13 AM
The problem, I think, is the vaccine has diminishing effectivess apparently, and even at ~90%, it means it can spread among the vaxxed if enough are unvaxxed.

And it's not as if other developed countries are doing way better than the US in vaxxed numbers.  Some are better, somewhat.

I'll be getting shot 3 soonish.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 24, 2021, 08:22:33 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 24, 2021, 07:58:13 AM
The problem, I think, is the vaccine has diminishing effectivess apparently, and even at ~90%, it means it can spread among the vaxxed if enough are unvaxxed.

And it's not as if other developed countries are doing way better than the US in vaxxed numbers.  Some are better, somewhat.

I'll be getting shot 3 soonish.
How do you mean diminishing effectiveness? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 24, 2021, 08:38:21 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on September 24, 2021, 08:22:33 AM
How do you mean diminishing effectiveness?
I assume he's talking about decreasing efficacy over time, with respect to contracting COVID19 given the presence of the novel coronavirus. 

We know that to be true.

Still, the vaccine appears to provide sustained protections against severe illness/hospitalization/death.  So in that respect, we are not seeing significant diminished effectiveness for most age cohorts.  Which is why we're seeing some doctors and scientists disagree with Washington and the CDC about the necessity of boosters at this time, outside of the elderly or those with serious comorbidities.


(https://i.imgur.com/TW2OfyT.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 24, 2021, 08:39:10 AM
So I heard this sad anecdote from a friend. I respect that it's just one story, not proof positive of what had to have been and what could've been.

A friend was supposed to host a party soon, but her best friend's dad is currently on a ventilator, so the event probably will get canceled. Next door in the hospital in a semi-rural county, the best friend's father-in-law. The couple got hitched a few years back, and might well have known each other since they were kids. There's something that just resonated in such a sad way about it for me. Who knows if they liked each other, but they probably joked at some point about who will get to take the grandkids on a given week, when that happens. Now, one has to be contemplating if he'll ever see those, and the other, well, I don't know what one is aware of with a machine breathing for them. 

Both had kids who begged them to get the jab. Both declined, for reasons as political as anything else. Maybe they still get it if they're vaccinated, maybe it's just as severe. The world is uncertain that way. I spoke to another friend who knew the couple. He was more vitriolic than I am. He was mad they declined medicine, then turned up needing it desperately (some people are on this train, though I think it's a bad and dangerous precedent, but it does get folks riled).

Before I went to bed last night, I though that would be the end of a post like this. But before I got up, my mind kind of jumped elsewhere. It's interesting how we meet out our pity and mercy. Someone will lambast those ill and dying with a stat that lacks context but certianly does make the speaker feel better about not caring. But the same individual will resolutely argue that someone's choice to decline medicine and take their chances is no big deal. Probably the residue of a rather universal political dialogue that's rotting parts of our brains, but interesting in its way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 24, 2021, 08:42:48 AM
Quote from: utee94 on September 24, 2021, 08:38:21 AM
I assume he's talking about decreasing efficacy over time, with respect to contracting COVID19 given the presence of the novel coronavirus. 

We know that to be true.

OK. So we're talking about a social efficacy, not an individual efficacy. I.e., whatever protections the vaccine gave don't necessarily wear out as much as the illness has just evolved. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 24, 2021, 09:01:03 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on September 24, 2021, 08:42:48 AM
OK. So we're talking about a social efficacy, not an individual efficacy. I.e., whatever protections the vaccine gave don't necessarily wear out as much as the illness has just evolved.
I don't know that we can conclude that from the data.

The truth is, that the virus has evolved, and will continue to evolve.  Since Delta has become the prime variant in the USA, there's no way to know how the vaccines would have held up against the variants that were prevalent when the vaccines first reached the public.

Regardless, I don't think it matters, because the effect is the same.  We know that vaccinated individuals are more likely to contract COVID19 as time goes on.  If this is because the virus has mutated, and we can assume at this point that the virus will continue to mutate, then that implies the potential for even further decrease in efficacy.  

But I'm far less interested in protection against contracting COVID19, and far more interested in keeping people out of the hospital.  On that front, at least, the vaccines are still proving to be quite effective.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 24, 2021, 09:02:53 AM
Quote from: utee94 on September 24, 2021, 09:01:03 AM
I don't know that we can conclude that from the data.

The truth is, that the virus has evolved, and will continue to evolve.  Since Delta has become the prime variant in the USA, there's no way to know how the vaccines would have held up against the variants that were prevalent when the vaccines first reached the public.

Regardless, I don't think it matters, because the effect is the same.  We know that vaccinated individuals are more likely to contract COVID19 as time goes on.  If this is because the virus has mutated, and we can assume at this point that the virus will continue to mutate, then that implies the potential for even further decrease in efficacy. 

But I'm far less interested in protection against contracting COVID19, and far more interested in keeping people out of the hospital.  On that front, at least, the vaccines are still proving to be quite effective.


And hopefully the vaccines will continue to evolve too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 24, 2021, 09:09:38 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on September 24, 2021, 08:39:10 AM
So I heard this sad anecdote from a friend. I respect that it's just one story, not proof positive of what had to have been and what could've been.

A friend was supposed to host a party soon, but her best friend's dad is currently on a ventilator, so the event probably will get canceled. Next door in the hospital in a semi-rural county, the best friend's father-in-law. The couple got hitched a few years back, and might well have known each other since they were kids. There's something that just resonated in such a sad way about it for me. Who knows if they liked each other, but they probably joked at some point about who will get to take the grandkids on a given week, when that happens. Now, one has to be contemplating if he'll ever see those, and the other, well, I don't know what one is aware of with a machine breathing for them.

Both had kids who begged them to get the jab. Both declined, for reasons as political as anything else. Maybe they still get it if they're vaccinated, maybe it's just as severe. The world is uncertain that way. I spoke to another friend who knew the couple. He was more vitriolic than I am. He was mad they declined medicine, then turned up needing it desperately (some people are on this train, though I think it's a bad and dangerous precedent, but it does get folks riled).

Before I went to bed last night, I though that would be the end of a post like this. But before I got up, my mind kind of jumped elsewhere. It's interesting how we meet out our pity and mercy. Someone will lambast those ill and dying with a stat that lacks context but certianly does make the speaker feel better about not caring. But the same individual will resolutely argue that someone's choice to decline medicine and take their chances is no big deal. Probably the residue of a rather universal political dialogue that's rotting parts of our brains, but interesting in its way.
That is very sad.  It really is. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 24, 2021, 09:18:22 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on September 24, 2021, 08:22:33 AM
How do you mean diminishing effectiveness?
If efficacy at Day 20 is say 90% and at Day 180 is down to 70%, it's a problem, I think.  I made up those figures, but they might be close.

Delta is more contagious apparently so it spreads faster and even the vaxxed are going to get it at some point because it's less than 100%.  As is often noted, staying out of the hospital is probably the key metric.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 24, 2021, 09:41:35 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on September 24, 2021, 09:02:53 AM
And hopefully the vaccines will continue to evolve too.
Amen, brutha.

I think a lot of us around here expected some kind of ongoing booster program.  Just hope the scientists can keep up  with the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on September 24, 2021, 09:56:34 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 22, 2021, 11:28:13 AM
Those are unusual symptoms I think.




Thanks for the feedback and also for those who PM-ed. After contacting my Primary Physician’s office through my medical provider’s internal messaging system, his nursing staff contacted me right away to set up an appointment for this coming Tuesday. They asked for the timeline of my symptoms and fortunately all except for the lower back pain have steeply waned since Monday. We’ll see what my physician has to say.

I’m wondering if what I experienced were secondary symptoms to my system perceiving itself as overrun by the first shot. In other words, were the muscle pains and digestive discomfort not a direct, first-order reaction to the shot, but rather a compounding result of my system getting preoccupied with having to weather a flu-like aftermath from the first shot? For instance, if overexerting yourself while battling the flu, your back and muscles are likely to feel a lot worse than sore, as mine sure did over the weekend.

Come Tuesday I’m asking to kick the second shot down the road, hopefully until January, when it’ll be a more convenient time to risk getting sick should the second shot ruin another weekend. As for the first shot, I’m more than recovered enough to go ahead with my weekend plans for binging Phoenix.

In related news, according to Worldometers’ count, USA reached 700,000 reported Covid deaths yesterday:

(https://i.imgur.com/a6nEaZe.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 24, 2021, 10:21:29 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on September 24, 2021, 09:56:34 AM
I’m wondering if what I experienced were secondary symptoms to my system perceiving itself as overrun by the first shot. In other words, were the muscle pains and digestive discomfort not a direct, first-order reaction to the shot, but rather a compounding result of my system getting preoccupied with having to weather a flu-like aftermath from the first shot? For instance, if overexerting yourself while battling the flu, your back and muscles are likely to feel a lot worse than sore, as mine sure did over the weekend.

It's possible. They do say that having side effects from the shot is an indication that your immune system is reacting to it, which is what you want to happen. Maybe your immune system went into hyperdrive and it had secondary effects. I haven't heard of severe symptoms like that, though, so it's odd regardless.

Either way, glad you're feeling mostly better, and hope it continues to improve quickly. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 24, 2021, 10:23:55 AM
My only reaction was fatigue, which of course caused me to stay in bed a lot more than normal, which could have prevented other compounding symptoms.

But I'm old.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 24, 2021, 11:22:39 AM
Quote from: utee94 on September 24, 2021, 09:01:03 AM
I don't know that we can conclude that from the data.

The truth is, that the virus has evolved, and will continue to evolve.  Since Delta has become the prime variant in the USA, there's no way to know how the vaccines would have held up against the variants that were prevalent when the vaccines first reached the public.

Regardless, I don't think it matters, because the effect is the same.  We know that vaccinated individuals are more likely to contract COVID19 as time goes on.  If this is because the virus has mutated, and we can assume at this point that the virus will continue to mutate, then that implies the potential for even further decrease in efficacy. 

But I'm far less interested in protection against contracting COVID19, and far more interested in keeping people out of the hospital.  On that front, at least, the vaccines are still proving to be quite effective.


Ed Zachery
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 24, 2021, 11:25:40 AM
my younger brother, 56, says the shingles vaccine is much worse 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 24, 2021, 11:39:11 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 24, 2021, 11:25:40 AM
my younger brother, 56, says the shingles vaccine is much worse
Mrs. 847 got that on Sunday.

Muscle cramps/tightness. I did a lot of PT for her this AM. Couldn't walk at 7AM, and just left the hotel in heels and a sundress. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 24, 2021, 11:57:50 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 24, 2021, 11:25:40 AM
my younger brother, 56, says the shingles vaccine is much worse
I'm sure it varies, but it was the worst reaction I have even had to a vaccine, Shingrix 2.  I was in bed shivvering uncontrollably to the point I put a pen between my teeth.

It didn't last that long but it was really bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 24, 2021, 12:16:31 PM
I hear all of that, but I can't wait. I'm 43 and I've now had shingles twice. Luckily both were minor cases, but as soon as I turn 50 I'm getting it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 24, 2021, 12:17:47 PM
I've asked some of my anti-vax buddies if they plan to get the Shingrix
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 24, 2021, 12:17:55 PM
Don't wish away 7 years man. Just hope you don't get it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 24, 2021, 12:19:29 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 24, 2021, 12:17:55 PM
Don't wish away 7 years man. Just hope you don't get it.
I'm not saying I want to be 50 sooner! 

Just when I get there, I'm not going to wait very long to get that jab.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 24, 2021, 12:23:27 PM
I think we all appreciate how bad shingles can be.  The shot is highly advised.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 24, 2021, 12:37:00 PM
COVID-19 can also be bad
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 24, 2021, 01:07:35 PM
Yes, it can, it hit my kid hard at 32.  But I think it tends to be bad less often than shingles, I'm not sure of that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 24, 2021, 01:46:33 PM
do many folks die from Shingles?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 24, 2021, 02:03:08 PM
Deaths: One study estimated that 96 deaths occur each year in which herpes zoster was the actual underlying cause (0.28 to 0.69 per 1 million population). Almost all the deaths occurred in elderly people or those with compromised or suppressed immune systems.

Shingles is a painful rash that develops on one side of the face or body. The rash consists of blisters that typically scab over in 7 to 10 days and fully clears up within 2 to 4 weeks.

Apparently not very lethal but rather unpleasant in some cases.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 24, 2021, 02:57:17 PM
Isn't shingles some what brought on by moderate drinking or am i thinking of something else?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 24, 2021, 03:01:56 PM
Caused by herpes zoster.

Shingles is caused by the varicella-zoster virus — the same virus that causes chickenpox. After you've had chickenpox, the virus lies inactive in nerve tissue near your spinal cord and brain. Years later, the virus may reactivate as shingles.

Shingles isn't a life-threatening condition, but it can be very painful. Vaccines can help reduce the risk of shingles. Early treatment can help shorten a shingles infection and lessen the chance of complications. The most common complication is postherpetic neuralgia, which causes shingles pain for a long time after your blisters have cleared.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 24, 2021, 03:10:43 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on September 24, 2021, 02:57:17 PM
Isn't shingles some what brought on by moderate drinking or am i thinking of something else?
Ahh, I'm safe. My drinking is anything but moderate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 24, 2021, 03:38:13 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 24, 2021, 03:10:43 PM
Ahh, I'm safe. My drinking is anything but moderate.
😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 24, 2021, 04:02:57 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 24, 2021, 03:10:43 PM
Ahh, I'm safe. My drinking is anything but moderate.
I was going to say that but this isn't the confession thread,anyway Isn't shingles some what brought on by light to moderate drinking
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 24, 2021, 04:04:02 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on September 24, 2021, 04:02:57 PM
I was going to say that but this isn't the confession thread,anyway Isn't shingles some what brought on by light to moderate drinking
LOL...

All I can say is that I've never heard that...

...and if it was a thing, I'd DEFINITELY have heard it [from my wife].
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 24, 2021, 04:06:13 PM
My Bad - gout what I was thinking
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 24, 2021, 04:24:35 PM
same intensity of pain from what I've heard

luckily I don't have experience with either

but, I rarely drink moderately
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 24, 2021, 04:46:12 PM
The signs and symptoms of gout almost always occur suddenly, and often at night. They include:

Gout occurs when urate crystals accumulate in your joint, causing the inflammation and intense pain of a gout attack. Urate crystals can form when you have high levels of uric acid in your blood. Your body produces uric acid when it breaks down purines — substances that are found naturally in your body.

Purines are also found in certain foods, including red meat and organ meats, such as liver. Purine-rich seafood includes anchovies, sardines, mussels, scallops, trout and tuna. Alcoholic beverages, especially beer, and drinks sweetened with fruit sugar (fructose) promote higher levels of uric acid.
Normally, uric acid dissolves in your blood and passes through your kidneys into your urine. But sometimes either your body produces too much uric acid or your kidneys excrete too little uric acid. When this happens, uric acid can build up, forming sharp, needlelike urate crystals in a joint or surrounding tissue that cause pain, inflammation and swelling.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 24, 2021, 05:39:29 PM
so, don't ruin your kidneys with moderate drinking
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on September 24, 2021, 09:06:32 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 24, 2021, 03:10:43 PM
Ahh, I'm safe. My drinking is anything but moderate.
We call that "Wisconsin moderate" 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on September 24, 2021, 09:25:52 PM
Gout sucks.   In the couple of times I've needed medication, as the pain was uncomfortable enough, you end up talkng this tiny little pill, which leads not not being able to dump for about a week.

Certain occasions and combinations of shell fish plus booze seem to be my specific trigger.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 25, 2021, 09:58:25 AM
Brewer's yeast is high in purines.  Wine will probably trigger you less than beer.  Shellfish aren't a specific trigger for me but they are for my dad and brother.  Spinach on the other hand, is bad for me. Which sucks because I like spinach.

Gout is genetic, and unfortunately it runs in my family.  

I diagnosed myself when I was about 27.  I had what felt like a completely broken big toe, with zero acute cause.  I researched on the web and told my doc I was certain I had gout.  He thought there was no way, then he saw my toe and said "yup that's gout."

Sucks but there you have it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2021, 10:04:32 AM
I've had gout, but not in about 25 years or so.

It sucks. Don't want gout. Lots of shellfish in Florida too. Gotta be careful because that is my trigger. I don't drink much beer so all good there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 25, 2021, 10:06:59 AM
Gout, shellfish, Florida......get a lil scurvy and you can be a pirate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 25, 2021, 10:27:51 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2021, 10:04:32 AM
I've had gout, but not in about 25 years or so.

It sucks. Don't want gout. Lots of shellfish in Florida too. Gotta be careful because that is my trigger. I don't drink much beer so all good there.

Ah consider yourself lucky.  I take a daily medicine to reduce the uric acid in my system and it helps, but I still get a flare-up about once per year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 25, 2021, 10:44:07 AM
The trends I've noted are continuing, I don't understand the UK data at all.  I can't see how these flareups are seasonal as the penultimate flare was in winter and this last was in summer.  I hope we're "done" of course but don't think that likely.  We could see another wave in Decemberish?

India is also a puzzlement.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 25, 2021, 10:51:57 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2021, 10:04:32 AM
I've had gout, but not in about 25 years or so.

It sucks. Don't want gout. Lots of shellfish in Florida too. Gotta be careful because that is my trigger. I don't drink much beer so all good there.
I might have gout but most of my joints hurt so I cant tell
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2021, 11:25:19 AM
Quote from: utee94 on September 25, 2021, 10:27:51 AM
Ah consider yourself lucky.  I take a daily medicine to reduce the uric acid in my system and it helps, but I still get a flare-up about once per year.
I take one too. Allopurinol. I asked the doc about stopping it, and he asked me if I really wanted to find out what would happen.

I said no, I'm good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 25, 2021, 11:30:17 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2021, 11:25:19 AM
I take one too. Allopurinol. I asked the doc about stopping it, and he asked me if I really wanted to find out what would happen.

I said no, I'm good.
That’s the one med I am on- prescribed to help prevent kidney stones.   Those were not fun. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2021, 11:39:08 AM
I get stones about once per year, even with the med. Yeah, they suck. I just don't want to go higher in the dose. I'm a minimalist when it comes to pills.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 25, 2021, 11:48:27 AM
Luckily I haven't had any kidney stones but as y'all obviously know, it's the same blood conditions that lead to both gout and the development of kidney stones

Quote from: longhorn320 on September 25, 2021, 10:51:57 AM
I might have gout but most of my joints hurt so I cant tell
You'd know.  An acute gout flareup is so intense that there's no way to mistake it for anything else.

At its worst, I've had pain in my big toe that was so painful, just the weight of a thin bedsheet resting on the toe created unbearable pain.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 25, 2021, 12:33:42 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on September 24, 2021, 09:06:32 PM
We call that "Wisconsin moderate"
Saw a girl on Gameday this morning with a "Drink Wisconsably" t shirt...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 25, 2021, 12:55:24 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 25, 2021, 09:58:25 AM
I researched on the web and told my doc I was certain I had gout.  He thought there was no way, then he saw my toe and said "yup that's gout."

Sucks but there you have it.
Live Oak is known to spur it on so send me your stash for safe keeping.I'll quarantine it for you - I'm here to help
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 25, 2021, 04:57:09 PM
so why does gout pick the big toe to attack

think about it theres just so many other places on the body that would make sense
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 26, 2021, 09:51:14 AM
It commonly manifests in the big toe but that's not the only location. Any joint can be attacked. I've had it in the ankle and elbow as well.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 26, 2021, 09:53:18 AM
Keep your elbows off of wet bar tops and that wouldn't happen
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 26, 2021, 09:56:16 AM
and your ankles
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 26, 2021, 10:02:08 AM
According to the American College of Foot and Ankle Surgeons, gout is most common in the big toe joint because uric acid is sensitive to temperature changes. The foot is farthest from the heart and is the coolest part of the body, so that big toe joint can be a canary in the coal mine when it comes to gout.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 26, 2021, 10:04:18 AM


(https://i.imgur.com/zfk1BQM.png)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 26, 2021, 10:07:57 AM
Monosodium urate mono
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 26, 2021, 10:02:08 AM
According to the American College of Foot and Ankle Surgeons, gout is most common in the big toe joint because uric acid is sensitive to temperature changes. The foot is farthest from the heart and is the coolest part of the body, so that big toe joint can be a canary in the coal mine when it comes to gout.
Makes sense to me.  It sucks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 26, 2021, 10:09:22 AM
keep your feet warm
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 27, 2021, 12:52:32 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 26, 2021, 10:09:22 AM
keep your feet warm

Would be awesome if it were just that easy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on September 27, 2021, 06:32:06 AM
I’m on Allopurinol, too.  Several years ago I would periodically have these episodes where out of nowhere I would wake up and not be able to walk.  My foot would be swollen and the pain would be in the top my foot in the joint where the foot meets the leg.  It would look like an injury but an injury hadn’t occurred.  After a couple days rest it would get better.  This would happen every few months.

After about the third time this happened I went to see a doctor.  The symptoms were so different than traditional gout she didn’t even do a blood test to rule it out. I got x-rays which showed nothing.  Finally, around Christmas in 2016 it happened in my knee.  Same deal, pain and swelling. I went to see a different doctor this time. He drained my knee and tested the fluid that he drained.  Sure enough it showed high levels of uric acid.  He started me on Colchrys and then eventually switched me to Allopurinol.  I haven’t had a flare up since.  But my symptoms are unlike any I’ve heard with gout.  It has never attacked my big toe.  I don’t experience a burning sensation or redness.  It looks and feels like an injury.  Like a really bad sprain or torn ligaments or something.  Sometimes I still feel weird calling it gout but ever since I started the medicine 5 years ago I’ve been fine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 27, 2021, 09:27:48 AM
Quote from: Kris60 on September 27, 2021, 06:32:06 AM
I’m on Allopurinol, too.  Several years ago I would periodically have these episodes where out of nowhere I would wake up and not be able to walk.  My foot would be swollen and the pain would be in the top my foot in the joint where the foot meets the leg.  It would look like an injury but an injury hadn’t occurred.  After a couple days rest it would get better.  This would happen every few months.

After about the third time this happened I went to see a doctor.  The symptoms were so different than traditional gout she didn’t even do a blood test to rule it out. I got x-rays which showed nothing.  Finally, around Christmas in 2016 it happened in my knee.  Same deal, pain and swelling. I went to see a different doctor this time. He drained my knee and tested the fluid that he drained.  Sure enough it showed high levels of uric acid.  He started me on Colchrys and then eventually switched me to Allopurinol.  I haven’t had a flare up since.  But my symptoms are unlike any I’ve heard with gout.  It has never attacked my big toe.  I don’t experience a burning sensation or redness.  It looks and feels like an injury.  Like a really bad sprain or torn ligaments or something.  Sometimes I still feel weird calling it gout but ever since I started the medicine 5 years ago I’ve been fine.

Yeah it can manifest in different ways for different people.  Hopefully you never have another flareup, but if you do, don't be surprised to get it in the big toe, ankle, elbow, wrist, or fingers.  Between my brother, my dad, and me, it's happened in all of those places at one time or another.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2021, 09:51:40 AM
One thing I can add from my own experiences... I'd rather have Covid than gout.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2021, 09:51:56 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/Hs6iJSV.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 27, 2021, 10:24:40 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2021, 09:51:40 AM
One thing I can add from my own experiences... I'd rather have Covid than gout.

I've never experienced any pain worse than gout, and that includes having a UTI back in college that made made it feel as if fire were shooting out of my urethra every time I urinated.  Gout is worse than that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 27, 2021, 10:45:47 AM
New covid cases continue to decline nationally and it appears new deaths has also peaked

meanwhile contrary to news reports folks are getting the shots at aprox .5 to .75
million a day

I really believe herd immunity is among us and will help hold down a winter surge

again with the disclaimer of a new strain happening
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 27, 2021, 10:51:18 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 27, 2021, 10:45:47 AM
New covid cases continue to decline nationally and it appears new deaths has also peaked

meanwhile contrary to news reports folks are getting the shots at aprox .5 to .75
million a day

I really believe herd immunity is among us and will help hold down a winter surge

again with the disclaimer of a new strain happening
I think this might be true of the South.  I'm not sure many of the northern states have really even  begun their Delta spike yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on September 27, 2021, 10:53:10 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 25, 2021, 10:44:07 AM
The trends I've noted are continuing, I don't understand the UK data at all.  I can't see how these flareups are seasonal as the penultimate flare was in winter and this last was in summer.  I hope we're "done" of course but don't think that likely.  We could see another wave in Decemberish?

India is also a puzzlement. 

You're right, what IS going on with UK case trends lately?

(https://i.imgur.com/5jGVkfY.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 27, 2021, 10:54:38 AM
Things headed in the right direction in Texas, and Austin:



(https://i.imgur.com/bisKrST.png)


(https://i.imgur.com/qstMo0t.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 27, 2021, 11:34:27 AM
Quote from: utee94 on September 27, 2021, 10:51:18 AM
I think this might be true of the South.  I'm not sure many of the northern states have really even  begun their Delta spike yet.
So youre saying the delta strain in mainly in the southern states

this is news to me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 27, 2021, 11:57:28 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 27, 2021, 11:34:27 AM
So youre saying the delta strain in mainly in the southern states

this is news to me
It hit southern states first, whether it hits the north hard from here is a question in my mind.  Some think this weather related but the last surge was dead of winter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 27, 2021, 12:09:54 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 27, 2021, 11:34:27 AM
So youre saying the delta strain in mainly in the southern states

this is news to me
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 27, 2021, 11:57:28 AM
It hit southern states first, whether it hits the north hard from here is a question in my mind.  Some think this weather related but the last surge was dead of winter.


I'm saying it hasn't hit the northern states hard yet, and that I expect it will.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 27, 2021, 12:14:09 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 27, 2021, 11:57:28 AM
It hit southern states first, whether it hits the north hard from here is a question in my mind.  Some think this weather related but the last surge was dead of winter.

Holiday travel before vaccines.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on September 30, 2021, 10:32:33 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on September 24, 2021, 09:56:34 AM



Come Tuesday I’m asking to kick the second shot down the road, hopefully until January, when it’ll be a more convenient time to risk getting sick should the second shot ruin another weekend. As for the first shot, I’m more than recovered enough to go ahead with my weekend plans for binging Phoenix.



My Doctor wasted no time shooting down my request to “kick the second shot down the road.” Other than the “digestive discomfort” he says the symptoms I went through “isn’t too uncommon.” Says unless I’m experiencing Anaphylaxis there's NO justification to write anything that lets a patient delay the second shot.

Second shot is schedule for October 12. I’ll tough out whatever reactions comes of it; lucky for me California’s Dept of Labor allows for up to a workweek of excused absence should my lower back act up again.

In related Covid news, an older family friend of ours passed of Covid in Missouri. She was already in the hospital undergoing treatment for a recent stroke which left her partially paralyzed when she tested positive for Covid within the ICU. A few weeks shy of 90 years-old, battling increasingly weakened immunity, and not sure if vaccinated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 30, 2021, 11:09:46 AM
Condolences to you Cats, on the loss of your family friend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 01, 2021, 08:42:21 AM
Promising.

The Latest: Merck: Experimental pill cuts effects of virus (apnews.com) (https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-business-health-pakistan-fadadffeef2e6b138421b21cd3cc2908)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 01, 2021, 09:17:48 AM
We definitely need more treatments,  to help with this thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 01, 2021, 09:27:18 AM
Would vaccine resistant folks take something like this?  Many seem to believe ivermectin, zinc, Vitamin D, hydroxyquinoline, et al. are effective and cheap.  When asked for any real clinical evidence, they claim clinicals aren't reliable.

Social media however is where you get the really good medical advice, not those MD fellers.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 01, 2021, 09:38:30 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 01, 2021, 09:27:18 AM
Would vaccine resistant folks take something like this?  Many seem to believe ivermectin, zinc, Vitamin D, hydroxyquinoline, et al. are effective and cheap.  When asked for any real clinical evidence, they claim clinicals aren't reliable.

Social media however is where you get the really good medical advice, not those MD fellers.


I know one Doctor who had some success with HQ early on. Then it turned political and that was it.

Lots of people take Zinc, vitamin D and vitamin C. I'm one of those.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 01, 2021, 10:04:07 AM
I'm talking about folks who think these things are effective treatments, with scant "evidence" that I've ever seen.

One doctor having some success is not what I'd call a controlled credible clinical trial.

For some reason, my FB feed has filled up with ads for zinc, one product is named "Pure Zinc", which it isn't.  I must have googled it.

A lot of these supplement ads make specific clear health claims which is illegal, but the FDA is swamped I surmise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 01, 2021, 10:12:43 AM
Graphs showing the national picture

7 day moving average

(https://i.imgur.com/XJ2k72r.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 01, 2021, 11:04:45 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 01, 2021, 10:04:07 AM
I'm talking about folks who think these things are effective treatments, with scant "evidence" that I've ever seen.

One doctor having some success is not what I'd call a controlled credible clinical trial.

For some reason, my FB feed has filled up with ads for zinc, one product is named "Pure Zinc", which it isn't.  I must have googled it.

A lot of these supplement ads make specific clear health claims which is illegal, but the FDA is swamped I surmise.
That was not my intention.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 01, 2021, 12:19:12 PM
Badge- you shouldn’t post it here if it is a medicine for treatment of symptoms.  It will be attacked.  

If a Doctor wants to prescribe it- let them, in private.  No medicine that helps fits the narrative and will be immediately censored or labeled.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 01, 2021, 12:58:12 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 01, 2021, 12:19:12 PM
Badge- you shouldn’t post it here if it is a medicine for treatment of symptoms.  It will be attacked. 

If a Doctor wants to prescribe it- let them, in private.  No medicine that helps fits the narrative and will be immediately censored or labeled. 
As soon as someone censors me on here, I'm turning the lights out. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 01, 2021, 02:16:59 PM
I got my booster today, Pfizer.  So far, no extra growths or anything, not even fatigue (yet).

I got flu vaccine at the same time, same arm, package deal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2021, 07:19:35 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/kY4mShx.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2021, 07:21:54 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/VCt3TJj.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 02, 2021, 07:33:05 AM
It's clearly abating, on schedule.  I think enough have had it, or the vaccine, to drop R naught under 1.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2021, 07:35:45 AM
I hope so, but the population in Florida is about to explode. Hopefully most of the people coming back are vaccinated or had it - or both.

I can see traffic increasing already.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on October 02, 2021, 09:34:07 AM
https://twitter.com/StarTribune/status/1444044605008252931?s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 02, 2021, 09:46:23 AM
I was at the Braves game Thursday, they had over 38,000 attending, and almost no one wore a mask, and we were bunched together.  It seems like an ideal spreading event, but apparently is doing much, CFB either.  Either those seats are tight or something changed about me.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 02, 2021, 10:30:24 AM
Newsom had announced that as soon as the FDA moves the vaccine from EUA to approved for 12-15 year olds, a vaccine mandate will go into effect for all CA students age 12-17 the beginning of the next school term.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2021, 11:40:49 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 02, 2021, 10:30:24 AM
Newsom had announced that as soon as the FDA moves the vaccine from EUA to approved for 12-15 year olds, a vaccine mandate will go into effect for all CA students age 12-17 the beginning of the next school term.
I saw that.

But, no mandate for teachers? Is this true?


(https://i.imgur.com/tf728Z6.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 02, 2021, 12:58:53 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2021, 11:40:49 AM
I saw that.

But, no mandate for teachers? Is this true?


[img width=259.091 height=474]https://i.imgur.com/tf728Z6.png[/img]
I've read that currently it's vaccine or weekly testing, and that when the student mandate goes into effect, it'll be a hard mandate for teachers as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 02, 2021, 01:14:44 PM
1 - an unvaccinated teacher is an idiot
2 - I'm certain the % of unvaccinated teachers is among the lowest of any profession (but that won't stop 847 from alluding to it being an issue)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 02, 2021, 01:53:40 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 02, 2021, 01:14:44 PM
1 - an unvaccinated teacher is an idiot
2 - I'm certain the % of unvaccinated teachers is among the lowest of any profession (but that won't stop 847 from alluding to it being an issue)
its only an issue if teachers and students arent treated the same
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2021, 01:57:46 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 02, 2021, 01:14:44 PM
1 - an unvaccinated teacher is an idiot
2 - I'm certain the % of unvaccinated teachers is among the lowest of any profession (but that won't stop 847 from alluding to it being an issue)
I'm certain you are wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 02, 2021, 10:12:11 PM
I'd guess truck drivers are lower.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on October 03, 2021, 12:34:04 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 02, 2021, 01:14:44 PM
1 - an unvaccinated teacher is an idiot
2 - I'm certain the % of unvaccinated teachers is among the lowest of any profession (but that won't stop 847 from alluding to it being an issue)
I agree with #1. I am certain #2 is wrong. I met an unvaccinated teacher last week; the only teacher I have spoken to for a few months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 03, 2021, 09:00:26 AM
Construction workers top occupations most hesitant to get COVID vaccine, study shows - Construction & Demolition Recycling (cdrecycler.com) (https://www.cdrecycler.com/article/construction-workers-vaccine-hesitant-covid-19/)

In a study, 46.4 percent of those in construction, oil and gas extraction or mining occupations indicated they ‘probably’ or ‘definitely’ wouldn’t get vaccinated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 03, 2021, 09:02:40 AM
They work outside, mostly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 03, 2021, 09:08:26 AM
Yes, they do work outside, but how they spend their nonwork hours is probably interesting.

Most I see around here appear to be Hispanic.  I hear a lot of Spanish near construction sites.  We see them coming and going on the streets.  I know the area NE of us has a lot of Hispanic and Asian immigrant population (and some good restaurants).  They often live in crowded conditions, many are sending money "home" or aiding other immigrant families who can't work.

We have a guy in our building who cleans everything, he's awesome, barely speaks English, but he works very hard even when no one is around watching.  Super guy, apparently has been here for many years I'm told.  

Our construction would collapse without the Hispanic population doing the hard work there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 03, 2021, 09:33:13 AM
I asked earlier how OSHA could enforce this mandate, and how smaller employers would respond to it.

With a federal vaccine mandate coming, OSHA prepares for enforcement : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2021/10/03/1042227032/how-a-small-government-agency-will-enforce-the-vaccine-mandate-for-80-million-wo)

I think most with fewer than a thousand employees will simply ask, if they bother at all, and covertly encourage employees to lie if necessary.  So, they would have a record showing 100% compliance.  No fine would be possible.

Somebody could drop a dime on them, I suppose, but OSHA would be overwhelmed.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 03, 2021, 10:45:14 AM
Biden presses companies to get ahead of vaccine mandate | TheHill (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/574986-biden-presses-companies-to-get-ahead-of-vaccine-mandate)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 03, 2021, 12:26:28 PM
Yeah... like this is gonna stick.

Fauci says it's "too soon to tell" whether Americans should avoid gathering for Christmas (yahoo.com) (https://news.yahoo.com/fauci-says-too-soon-tell-152719985.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 03, 2021, 12:28:40 PM
It's pointless to offer any advice on Christmas or any other Holiday at this point, and will be on December 15 also.

We are fairly quickly deciding this thing is endemic and we're going ahead with our lives.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 03, 2021, 01:41:06 PM
we have several million folks currently sitting side by side no masks every Sat and Sunday and somebody wants to know if we should cancel Christmas

These so called experts are a joke
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 03, 2021, 01:51:01 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 03, 2021, 01:41:06 PM
we have several million folks currently sitting side by side no masks every Sat and Sunday and somebody wants to know if we should cancel Christmas

These so called experts are a joke
Yes.

Been on a plane lately?

All the way up to boarding, from security to the gate, they ask you to stay 6 feet apart. All to get on a packed plane, on top of each other.

True this is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 03, 2021, 02:06:59 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 03, 2021, 01:51:01 PM
Yes.

Been on a plane lately?

All the way up to boarding, from security to the gate, they ask you to stay 6 feet apart. All to get on a packed plane, on top of each other.

True this is.
I'm trying to imagine an airport where I could do something like that. I feel like the 6 feet stuff is now to the point of just some old stickers on the floor. 

On another subject, it's about to be flu season, or when BAB gets paid $10 bucks to get his worried mother to stop bothering him about getting a shot. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 03, 2021, 03:18:27 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 03, 2021, 02:06:59 PM
I'm trying to imagine an airport where I could do something like that. I feel like the 6 feet stuff is now to the point of just some old stickers on the floor.

On another subject, it's about to be flu season, or when BAB gets paid $10 bucks to get his worried mother to stop bothering him about getting a shot.
Just was at MDW. The announcements (about Federal "mask law" and distancing) were constant, and the place was overall pretty empty. Plane was fairly full.

Had a cheezborger at the Billy Goat for the first time ever. Last time too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 03, 2021, 03:29:49 PM
Our friends who have flown lately say the ATL airport is crowded, about as usual, we're flying out Friday to Denver.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 03, 2021, 03:53:54 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 03, 2021, 03:18:27 PM
Just was at MDW. The announcements (about Federal "mask law" and distancing) were constant, and the place was overall pretty empty. Plane was fairly full.

Had a cheezborger at the Billy Goat for the first time ever. Last time too.
I used to like flying midway because they had one midwest fast food place I liked, and I slowly learned most of the rest of the food was middling, overpriced or both. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 03, 2021, 03:55:54 PM
MDW is convenient for us, because Allegiant flies out of PGD. 10 minutes away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 03, 2021, 08:39:18 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 03, 2021, 03:18:27 PM
Just was at MDW. The announcements (about Federal "mask law" and distancing) were constant, and the place was overall pretty empty. Plane was fairly full.

Had a cheezborger at the Billy Goat for the first time ever. Last time too.
met Burney at the Billy goat a few years back, had a couple drinks
don't think either of us had anything to eat
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 04, 2021, 06:57:00 AM

The reasons remain somewhat unclear, and there is no guarantee that the decline in caseloads will continue. But the turnaround is now large enough — and been going on long enough — to deserve attention.

The number of new daily cases in the U.S. has fallen 35 percent since Sept. 1:
(https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/kaRM-bMe5uzRx383HFXukpS4sPVWeA_iUOgtoLYbKwtFme2ZWuKhbMV-hxygH54axCqDbagIUszKlnihJaRotk8Cm9DIGd8K1e5k_T5pUtxNzq4ts1bSes0v7cgk7E5P47fa9GTuna6PnE9bdzClBv-SEgKiaErMA2z4bxqlHSnHmYBeUQ=s0-d-e1-ft#https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021/10/03/briefing/oakImage-1633289144097/oakImage-1633289144097-articleLarge.png)
Worldwide, cases have also dropped more than 30 percent since late August. “This is as good as the world has looked in many months,” Dr. Eric Topol of Scripps Research wrote (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/kB8ESWJuQR0OHZXRwrE32Q~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjPV98P0TNaHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0dGVyLmNvbS9FcmljVG9wb2wvc3RhdHVzLzE0NDMyNDM0NDUwNjE5NzE5NzU_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIxMTAwNCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD00MTk3NCZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTE1MzM2ODkxMCZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTcwNjA1JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0QgphUnzaWmEcJE2OUhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) last week.
These declines are consistent with a pattern that regular readers of this newsletter will recognize: Covid’s mysterious two-month cycle (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/B6YrS3y5vKg82csiXnO0rQ~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjPV98P0TfaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8wOS8wMS9icmllZmluZy9kZWx0YS1wZWFrLWNvdmlkLWNhc2Vsb2FkLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIxMTAwNCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD00MTk3NCZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTE1MzM2ODkxMCZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTcwNjA1JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0QgphUnzaWmEcJE2OUhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~). Since the Covid virus began spreading in late 2019, cases have often surged for about two months — sometimes because of a variant, like Delta — and then declined for about two months.
Epidemiologists do not understand why. Many popular explanations, like seasonality or the ebbs and flows of social distancing, are clearly insufficient, if not wrong. The two-month cycle has occurred during different seasons of the year and occurred even when human behavior was not changing in obvious ways.
The most plausible explanations involve some combination of virus biology and social networks. Perhaps each virus variant is especially likely to infect some people but not others — and once many of the most vulnerable have been exposed, the virus recedes. And perhaps a variant needs about two months to circulate through an average-sized community.
Human behavior does play a role, with people often becoming more careful once caseloads begin to rise. But social distancing is not as important as public discussion of the virus often imagines. “We’ve ascribed far too much human authority over the virus,” as Michael Osterholm, an infectious-disease expert at the University of Minnesota, has told me.
The recent declines, for example, have occurred even as millions of American children have again crowded into school buildings.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 04, 2021, 07:25:06 AM
Ya don't say?

“We’ve ascribed far too much human authority over the virus,” as Michael Osterholm, an infectious-disease expert at the University of Minnesota, has told me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 04, 2021, 07:32:38 AM
Yup, new virus with unusual features, most of which unknown and unanticipated earlier.  An early fear was it could be spread by touch from surfaces, now largely discounted.

And yet folks continue to be extra vigilant cleaning surfaces, probably for no reason on COVID.

Science-on-Mask-Use-in-K-12-Schools_8.20.21_FINAL.pdf (scdhec.gov) (https://scdhec.gov/sites/default/files/media/document/Science-on-Mask-Use-in-K-12-Schools_8.20.21_FINAL.pdf)

Just how effective is mask-wearing? Here's what 3 new studies found. (advisory.com) (https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2021/09/27/face-masks)

The face mask controversy continues of course, but newer data does show some efficacy from what I've seen. 

Then we have the various and sundry "treatments" off label which get popularity at times from dubious sources.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 04, 2021, 12:00:05 PM
...

Holiday Tips (cdc.gov) (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/holidays/celebrations.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 04, 2021, 01:05:36 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 03, 2021, 03:55:54 PM
MDW is convenient for us, because Allegiant flies out of PGD. 10 minutes away.
Is that one of those highly discounted airlines?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 04, 2021, 01:09:31 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 04, 2021, 01:05:36 PM
Is that one of those highly discounted airlines?
Yes, and what the large print giveth, the fine print taketh away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 04, 2021, 01:38:26 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 04, 2021, 12:00:05 PM
...

Holiday Tips (cdc.gov) (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/holidays/celebrations.html)

I just … I don’t know if places are always generating stupid content, but this is just a case of attention going to it, or if they’re just hell bent on getting attention, even if they look stupid doing it (sometimes an upside play).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 04, 2021, 01:57:33 PM
It's from the CDC. They probably shouldn't be seeking attention at this point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 04, 2021, 02:00:07 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 04, 2021, 01:05:36 PM
Is that one of those highly discounted airlines?
Kinda.

We use them for convenience. We both got their credit card, which gave us points. With the card, the second person flies free, and you get free food/dranks (including booze).

You pay for a carry-on, checked bags, seat selection. We always choose the front of the plane, for more room. The last trip to MDW (before we got the card on the way back) was $225 total, for both of us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 04, 2021, 02:29:46 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 04, 2021, 02:00:07 PM
Kinda.

We use them for convenience. We both got their credit card, which gave us points. With the card, the second person flies free, and you get free food/dranks (including booze).

You pay for a carry-on, checked bags, seat selection. We always choose the front of the plane, for more room. The last trip to MDW (before we got the card on the way back) was $225 total, for both of us.
Ahh. That second person flies free is big. I’m always interested what the points actually translate to in terms of money. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 04, 2021, 03:27:55 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 04, 2021, 01:57:33 PM
It's from the CDC. They probably shouldn't be seeking attention at this point.
Like most things, most of what we hear from the CDC is from their PR and Press/media folks.  They do have dedicated intelligent people doing work who never talk to the media.  I know, and know of, some of them.  They likely roll their eyes at what gets said in public often as not, but most work in unrelated areas.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 04, 2021, 04:04:32 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/uewBIS5.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 05, 2021, 10:58:51 AM
Study shows Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness declines after six months | TheHill (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/575279-study-shows-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-declines-after-six-months)

As we expected, a pretty significant decline in 6 months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 05, 2021, 11:02:54 AM
So did Big Pharma deliberately design a vaccine whose efficacy attenuates quickly, in order to sell booster shots?




(I'm just kidding)



(mostly)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 05, 2021, 11:09:29 AM
It's not that big a profit item for Pfizer and J&J, but it's huge for Moderna.

The first two have had little movement in their stock price, and Pfizer's earnings in 2020 was below expectations.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 05, 2021, 11:11:55 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 05, 2021, 11:09:29 AM
It's not that big a profit item for Pfizer and J&J, but it's huge for Moderna.

The first two have had little movement in their stock price, and Pfizer's earnings in 2020 was below expectations. 

The first two might not have been a big profit center for Pfizer, but that's precisely why they designed it so you'd need a third booster shot.  THAT's where they're going to price-gouge.


(or, maybe not ;) )
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 05, 2021, 11:18:55 AM
I'm confused...


Quote
A study published on Monday in The Lancet medical journal found that the efficacy of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine fell below 50 percent after about six months after the second dose.

The Pfizer-funded study (https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736(21)02183-8) found that Pfizer's vaccine was 88 percent effective in the first month after full vaccination but dropped to 47 percent effectiveness at about six months. The vaccine was also found to be highly effective against the delta variant, which was found to be over 90 percent effective in the first months before dropping to 53 percent effectiveness after four months.

Researchers determined that the waning immunity had to do with the amount of time since an individual was given the second shot rather than due to the highly infectious delta strain.

"Our results provide support for high effectiveness of [Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine] against hospital admissions up until around 6 months after being fully vaccinated, even in the face of widespread dissemination of the delta variant," the researchers wrote. "Reduction in vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections over time is probably primarily due to waning immunity with time rather than the delta variant escaping vaccine protection."

Protection against hospital admission remained high throughout, being 93 percent effective up to six months after administration.
So effectiveness wanes to 50% for infection at six months, I guess, but it's still 93% effective at stopping hospitalization at six months?

Why is this a problem? That said to me that it's 93% effective after six months for the important metric, and a booster is unnecessary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 05, 2021, 11:22:01 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/s4Y4MXU.png)

J&J earnings per year.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 05, 2021, 11:22:39 AM
Getting infected is still a problem even if you don't go to the hospital.  You likely miss work (I hope) and you can spread it to others of course.

R naught.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 05, 2021, 11:38:52 AM
On simple practical grounds, I can't see how they could have developed a vaccine with intentional loss of effectiveness in such a rush.  Their focus would be on effective, this drop in efficacy has to be unrelated to their intent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 05, 2021, 12:02:45 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 05, 2021, 11:38:52 AM
On simple practical grounds, I can't see how they could have developed a vaccine with intentional loss of effectiveness in such a rush.  Their focus would be on effective, this drop in efficacy has to be unrelated to their intent.
You're obviously not doing enough research on social media.  Big Pharma is capable of doing it.  They can do ANYthing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 05, 2021, 12:29:10 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 05, 2021, 11:22:39 AM
Getting infected is still a problem even if you don't go to the hospital.  You likely miss work (I hope) and you can spread it to others of course.

R naught.
Obviously loss of effectiveness isn't the best thing in the world. I wouldn't really hesitate to get the booster personally. 

I just find it really annoying that reporters can't be very clear about exactly WHAT level of effectiveness has waned. If it's not as good at stopping infection but it is still excellent (and I consider 93% excellent) at avoiding hospitalization, that's GOOD news. 

Most reporters don't understand science and their eyes glaze over anytime numbers are involved, though, so I'm not surprised. Just annoyed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 05, 2021, 12:36:26 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 05, 2021, 12:29:10 PM
Obviously loss of effectiveness isn't the best thing in the world. I wouldn't really hesitate to get the booster personally.

I just find it really annoying that reporters can't be very clear about exactly WHAT level of effectiveness has waned. If it's not as good at stopping infection but it is still excellent (and I consider 93% excellent) at avoiding hospitalization, that's GOOD news.

Most reporters don't understand science and their eyes glaze over anytime numbers are involved, though, so I'm not surprised. Just annoyed.

Well, and the other issue is, the entire point is NOT to eliminate infections.  It's to reduce the damage that COVID19 does to human beings.  93% effectiveness means that it IS significantly minimizing the damage done to humans.

As posted earlier on this thread (or the other one), estimates are that 75% of all flu cases are either asymptomatic or so mild they're never reported.

I think the public, and the mediots, and the government,  have become confused on what the goal should be.

The goal should NOT be, to eradicate the virus, to eliminate infection entirely.  That's unrealistic and actually it's completely impossible.

The goal SHOULD be, to reduce the effect of this virus on humans, to the point that it is no more dangerous or damaging, than other illnesses we see on a regular basis and accept as a base rate for continuing to live our lives normally-- like, for example, the flu.

How close to that level of tolerance/acceptance of damage, does the 93 % get us? That's the relevant question, when given this bit of data.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 05, 2021, 12:51:36 PM
I think cutting down R naught is useful.  I agree the main objective is preventing hospitlizations, but reducing the spread is also of value.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 05, 2021, 12:52:14 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 05, 2021, 12:36:26 PM
Well, and the other issue is, the entire point is NOT to eliminate infections.  It's to reduce the damage that COVID19 does to human beings.  93% effectiveness means that it IS significantly minimizing the damage done to humans.

As posted earlier on this thread (or the other one), estimates are that 75% of all flu cases are either asymptomatic or so mild they're never reported.

I think the public, and the mediots, and the government,  have become confused on what the goal should be.

The goal should NOT be, to eradicate the virus, to eliminate infection entirely.  That's unrealistic and actually it's completely impossible.

The goal SHOULD be, to reduce the effect of this virus on humans, to the point that it is no more dangerous or damaging, than other illnesses we see on a regular basis and accept as a base rate for continuing to live our lives normally-- like, for example, the flu.

How close to that level of tolerance/acceptance of damage, does the 93 % get us? That's the relevant question, when given this bit of data.
Your point is important, and valid. 

That said, the two are interrelated. 

Reducing cases reduces the potential for people to become hospitalized, which reduces the damage it does to human beings. So I see value to boosters if they reduce R0 by protecting more effectively against infection.

And it becomes a problem:


The message should address both groups head-on. The vaccine is effective and it remains effective over time at the most important metric--keeping people out of the hospital. The booster's goal, therefore, is to help keep the spread down and protect those who can't or won't get the vaccine, and help us all get back to normal again, which is what we want. And maybe, just maybe, the booster will show more staying power over time at preventing infection--it's too early to predict.  

The problem is that in that article from The Hill, it does neither. They're not very clear about numbers. They say it's 47% effective after six months, but 53% effective against Delta after four months, but 93% effective at preventing hospitalization at six months. As a reader I'm forced to assume that the 47% and 53% numbers are related to staving off infection. 

With confusing numbers thrown around, not defined, AND NO COHERENT MESSAGE EXPLAINING THE NUMBERS AND WHAT THEY MEAN, it's effing useless. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 05, 2021, 12:54:43 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 05, 2021, 12:36:26 PM
Well, and the other issue is, the entire point is NOT to eliminate infections.  It's to reduce the damage that COVID19 does to human beings.  93% effectiveness means that it IS significantly minimizing the damage done to humans.

As posted earlier on this thread (or the other one), estimates are that 75% of all flu cases are either asymptomatic or so mild they're never reported.

I think the public, and the mediots, and the government,  have become confused on what the goal should be.

The goal should NOT be, to eradicate the virus, to eliminate infection entirely.  That's unrealistic and actually it's completely impossible.

The goal SHOULD be, to reduce the effect of this virus on humans, to the point that it is no more dangerous or damaging, than other illnesses we see on a regular basis and accept as a base rate for continuing to live our lives normally-- like, for example, the flu.

How close to that level of tolerance/acceptance of damage, does the 93 % get us? That's the relevant question, when given this bit of data.
Bingo.      Thank you!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 05, 2021, 12:55:00 PM
I'd hate to be the one trying to explain all this to everyone amidst the massive disinformation out there, some of which comes from governments.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 05, 2021, 01:01:08 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 05, 2021, 12:52:14 PM
Your point is important, and valid.

That said, the two are interrelated.

Reducing cases reduces the potential for people to become hospitalized, which reduces the damage it does to human beings. So I see value to boosters if they reduce R0 by protecting more effectively against infection.

And it becomes a problem:

  • If you say it's only 50% effective after six months, the vaccine-hesitant are gonna say "oh, I get this shot and then I just need to keep getting them every six months? When does this end?"
  • If you say it's 93% effective after six months, those who have already had the shot say "oh, it still protects really well after infection? Then why do I need a booster?"

The message should address both groups head-on. The vaccine is effective and it remains effective over time at the most important metric--keeping people out of the hospital. The booster's goal, therefore, is to help keep the spread down and protect those who can't or won't get the vaccine, and help us all get back to normal again, which is what we want. And maybe, just maybe, the booster will show more staying power over time at preventing infection--it's too early to predict. 

The problem is that in that article from The Hill, it does neither. They're not very clear about numbers. They say it's 47% effective after six months, but 53% effective against Delta after four months, but 93% effective at preventing hospitalization at six months. As a reader I'm forced to assume that the 47% and 53% numbers are related to staving off infection.

With confusing numbers thrown around, not defined, AND NO COHERENT MESSAGE EXPLAINING THE NUMBERS AND WHAT THEY MEAN, it's effing useless.


It's even worse than useless, it becomes destructive.

I sincerely believe that our biggest problem right now, is that there is no goal.  There is no idea of what "managed" looks like.

There are a lot of people that still believe that the virus can be eliminated, and that nobody should even consider getting back to normal until that occurs.  They experience near-seizure-inducing panic at the sight of football stadiums full of people. They continue to refer to such events as "super-spreaders" even though there is no evidence of that-- in fact at this point, the evidence here in Austin at least, is that it hasn't impacted community case levels at all.

On the flipside, there are hoaxers and anti-vaxers and other various individualists that either don't believe it's an issue, or they don't believe there's anything that can or should be done to stop it. Messaging that "we're going to keep masking forever" is only going to make these people dig in their heels further.


With no goal, with no target, stated, both of these groups freely spin out of control and create more churn and divisiveness.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 05, 2021, 01:03:56 PM
Goals:

1.  Limit hospitalizations to the point hospitals are not stressed by this, meaning maybe they have 2-5% beds with COVID.
2.  Reduce infection rate to the point this is akin to flu in most years, manageable but with some sick days out there.
3.  Stay on top of variants headed out way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 05, 2021, 01:10:55 PM
2021's most popular new Halloween decoration:

(https://i.imgur.com/YJZs5OO.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 05, 2021, 02:14:46 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 05, 2021, 01:01:08 PM
With no goal, with no target, stated, both of these groups freely spin out of control and create more churn and divisiveness.
That reminds me, I need to add one to this:

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 05, 2021, 01:03:56 PM
Goals:

1.  Limit hospitalizations to the point hospitals are not stressed by this, meaning maybe they have 2-5% beds with COVID.
2.  Reduce infection rate to the point this is akin to flu in most years, manageable but with some sick days out there.
3.  Stay on top of variants headed out way.
4. Burn social media to the ground.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2021, 02:20:25 PM
I wish natural infection survivors would come up more, in general. We have almost 45 Million of those here in the USA - that we KNOW of. It's far more than that number, regardless.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 05, 2021, 02:28:37 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2021, 02:20:25 PM
I wish natural infection survivors would come up more, in general. We have almost 45 Million of those here in the USA - that we KNOW of. It's far more than that number, regardless.
It doesn’t just not “ come up”.  it is taboo.  

why is it that Florida’s rapidly declining infection rate, reversing mask mandates and booming economy are no longer center stage?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 05, 2021, 02:35:15 PM
It's the same with India, Big News when surging, completely not news when the surge disappeared.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 05, 2021, 02:45:02 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 05, 2021, 02:28:37 PM
It doesn’t just not “ come up”.  it is taboo. 

why is it that Florida’s rapidly declining infection rate, reversing mask mandates and booming economy are no longer center stage?
Probably because while other states were doing well containing Delta, Florida has jumped to be the 3rd highest cases/1M rate in the US and 9th highest deaths/1M rate in the US...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

It's easy to point to a rapidly declining infection rate when your state had even more infections and deaths WITH the vaccine during the third [Delta] wave than you had in either of the previous waves...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 05, 2021, 02:45:18 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 05, 2021, 02:45:02 PM
Probably because while other states were doing well containing Delta, Florida has jumped to be the 3rd highest cases/1M rate in the US and 9th highest deaths/1M rate in the US...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

It's easy to point to a rapidly declining infection rate when your state had even more infections and deaths WITH the vaccine during the third [Delta] wave than you had in either of the previous waves... It's easy to decline from such high numbers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 05, 2021, 03:08:51 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 05, 2021, 02:14:46 PM
That reminds me, I need to add one to this:
4. Burn social media to the ground.
Man with the Facebook and Instagram outage yesterday, I had high hopes that we were on our way!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 05, 2021, 03:18:07 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 05, 2021, 02:14:46 PM
4. Burn social media to the ground.
Sans this place,except for maybe a thread or two
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 05, 2021, 03:32:32 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2021, 02:20:25 PM
I wish natural infection survivors would come up more, in general. We have almost 45 Million of those here in the USA - that we KNOW of. It's far more than that number, regardless.
For what reason? Generally curious. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2021, 03:35:00 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 05, 2021, 02:45:02 PM
Probably because while other states were doing well containing Delta, Florida has jumped to be the 3rd highest cases/1M rate in the US and 9th highest deaths/1M rate in the US...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

It's easy to point to a rapidly declining infection rate when your state had even more infections and deaths WITH the vaccine during the third [Delta] wave than you had in either of the previous waves...
Nobody points out that leadership has actively promoted vaccines since they came out. Everyone likes to point out that he promoted medicine to reduce symptoms of those infected, and now that medicine supply is being held hostage. He promoted it because he knows that a certain amount of his citizens just won't get the vaccine. And it's not a party-line thing here. Trust me.

He's not a mandate guy. He's a leadership guy. If you want to wear a mask, do it. He's not saying you can't. He just not saying that you have to.

99% of the people who died in the recent surge were unvaccinated. Whose fault is that?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2021, 03:36:43 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 05, 2021, 03:32:32 PM
For what reason? Generally curious.
Because it's been shown to be more effective than the vaccinations in several studies.

I wish the CDC would recognize this, or at least acknowledge it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 05, 2021, 04:06:10 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2021, 03:36:43 PM
Because it's been shown to be more effective than the vaccinations in several studies.

I wish the CDC would recognize this, or at least acknowledge it.
Ahhh. The phrasing made me a little unsure what you were getting at.

I suppose it’s valuable to acknowledge it, though it is still advisable to get the jab on top of that, at least as far as I’ve read. I wonder, and I’m just playing devil’s advocate since I can’t really back their process, if there’s a worry it becomes a rallying cry on the huckster side of things.

On the plus side, if you combine the folks who got the jab and that group, we might be closer to very good shape, and that would be grand.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2021, 04:16:51 PM
I had no hesitation on getting it, despite having Covid. I figure I'm bullet proof now.

As for others, there are many reasons why they won't. Some of it is principles, some religious, and some just hesitant due to how fast it was developed. I also acknowledge for many, it's a political thing, which I don't get at all.

The former president got the shot, despite being infected a few months prior. Many of his followers won't get it, for whatever reasons.

The current president told everyone that he would not get it because it was developed under the former president. Current VP and Speaker said same. Many of their followers won't get it, for whatever reasons.

Messaging, yes?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 05, 2021, 04:17:07 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2021, 03:35:00 PM
Nobody points out that leadership has actively promoted vaccines since they came out. Everyone likes to point out that he promoted medicine to reduce symptoms of those infected, and now that medicine supply is being held hostage. He promoted it because he knows that a certain amount of his citizens just won't get the vaccine. And it's not a party-line thing here. Trust me.

He's not a mandate guy. He's a leadership guy. If you want to wear a mask, do it. He's not saying you can't. He just not saying that you have to.

99% of the people who died in the recent surge were unvaccinated. Whose fault is that?
I wasn't making this about politics or their governor. HB asked why we're not talking about Florida's declining rate. I said it's because this latest Delta surge has put Florida into the top 10 in the USA in deaths/1M. 

Back before the Delta surge, Florida was patting themselves on the back for being middle-of-the-pack numbers-wise. I think they were right around 25th or 26th in deaths/1M, so quite literally middle-of-the-pack.  I really couldn't criticize because being a large state, they were middle-of-the-pack numbers-wise. But while they were congratulating themselves and patting themselves on the back, their numbers went to shit. 

So I'm not going to pat them on the back for making their numbers slightly less shitty as the Delta surge recedes. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 05, 2021, 04:20:46 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 05, 2021, 04:17:07 PM
I wasn't making this about politics or their governor. HB asked why we're not talking about Florida's declining rate. I said it's because this latest Delta surge has put Florida into the top 10 in the USA in deaths/1M.

Back before the Delta surge, Florida was patting themselves on the back for being middle-of-the-pack numbers-wise. I think they were right around 25th or 26th in deaths/1M, so quite literally middle-of-the-pack.  I really couldn't criticize because being a large state, they were middle-of-the-pack numbers-wise. But while they were congratulating themselves and patting themselves on the back, their numbers went to shit.

So I'm not going to pat them on the back for making their numbers slightly less shitty as the Delta surge recedes.

Perception is a funny thing. Especially yours lol

Nobody was patting themselves on the back. They were however defending unwarranted and vicious politicized attacks. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 05, 2021, 04:27:46 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2021, 03:36:43 PM
Because it's been shown to be more effective than the vaccinations in several studies.

I wish the CDC would recognize this, or at least acknowledge it.
I haven't seen these studies--and I've read the studies you've linked to me, which did not support that. I believe one showed that natural infection showed robust immune response, including B and T cells. And another one you linked showed that the vaccinations also promoted the same immune response, but it was too early to determine if the response was as robust as natural infection. 

It's also been shown that if you have natural immunity AND THEN you get the jab, your immune response to the jab is stronger than either natural immunity or just the jab without previous infection. So there is strong evidence that if you have natural immunity, getting the jab makes it even better.

We also don't know how long natural immunity lasts. One might think that if someone had the virus more than 6 months ago, it might be even more important to get the jab just in case their own immunity has waned.

If you have any studies that support that immunity from natural infection is either more robust, or more long-lasting, than from the jab, let me know. I'll read them.

Quote from: bayareabadger on October 05, 2021, 04:06:10 PM
Ahhh. The phrasing made me a little unsure what you were getting at.

I suppose it’s valuable to acknowledge it, though it is still advisable to get the jab on top of that, at least as far as I’ve read. I wonder, and I’m just playing devil’s advocate since I can’t really back their process, if there’s a worry it becomes a rallying cry on the huckster side of things.

On the plus side, if you combine the folks who got the jab and that group, we might be closer to very good shape, and that would be grand.
Well, with the ability to see breakthrough infections with Delta, we can't really trust that the case numbers really reflect the actual impact of the virus any longer. But the deaths did rise and fall in the same shape as the infections, so I think we can say that we were not at herd immunity prior to the Delta wave. 

Is it possible we're at or near herd immunity now if you add up natural infection plus the vaccinated, as we see Delta receding? Maybe. I'd certainly hope so. 

Personally, I'm vaxxed, as is my wife, as our my two eligible children, as are all of my most vulnerable relatives and friends. So I'm living my life as if we're in very good shape. But I continue to recommend anyone who hasn't gotten the jab to do so, because counting on everyone else to protect you via herd immunity is a dangerous strategy. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 05, 2021, 04:34:04 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 05, 2021, 04:20:46 PM
Perception is a funny thing. Especially yours lol

Nobody was patting themselves on the back. They were however defending unwarranted and vicious politicized attacks. 
I personally don't care that much. You asked why we're not talking about declining numbers, and I responded and said that it was declining from very high numbers, a much worse Delta surge than much of the rest of the country, which is why Florida jumped from middle-of-the-pack to top 10 in deaths/1M. 

I did not bring up the governor, nor did I bring up Florida's COVID policies. By not bringing them up, I would assume that I was not offering unwarranted and vicious politicized attacks. 

But... If one wanted to go there, one could argue that to the extent that government policy impacts the numbers, Florida's government policy led to bad numbers. YOU were the one asking why weren't talking about declining case rates--an admission that you were allowing Florida to be judged on the declining numbers. All I'm saying is you can't have it both ways. We can't congratulate you (and your statewide handling of the pandemic) for declining numbers without acknowledging that your statewide handling of the pandemic JUST MIGHT have led to the very high numbers in the Delta surge that you were declining from.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Geolion91 on October 05, 2021, 04:37:16 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2021, 04:16:51 PM


The current president told everyone that he would not get it because it was developed under the former president. Current VP and Speaker said same. Many of their followers won't get it, for whatever reasons.


I'd like to see where you got this from.  If I recall correctly, Biden got vaccinated at nearly the same time as Trump.

I looked it up, he received his first dose on Dec. 21st, and the second on Jan. 11th

https://abc7news.com/joe-biden-covid-vaccine-coronavirus-covid-19-gets/9561849/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 05, 2021, 04:45:52 PM
We don't need to be discussing Biden or Trump on this thread.  Take it somewhere else please.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 05, 2021, 04:55:48 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 05, 2021, 04:34:04 PM
I personally don't care that much. You asked why we're not talking about declining numbers, and I responded and said that it was declining from very high numbers, a much worse Delta surge than much of the rest of the country, which is why Florida jumped from middle-of-the-pack to top 10 in deaths/1M.

I did not bring up the governor, nor did I bring up Florida's COVID policies. By not bringing them up, I would assume that I was not offering unwarranted and vicious politicized attacks.

But... If one wanted to go there, one could argue that to the extent that government policy impacts the numbers, Florida's government policy led to bad numbers. YOU were the one asking why weren't talking about declining case rates--an admission that you were allowing Florida to be judged on the declining numbers. All I'm saying is you can't have it both ways. We can't congratulate you (and your statewide handling of the pandemic) for declining numbers without acknowledging that your statewide handling of the pandemic JUST MIGHT have led to the very high numbers in the Delta surge that you were declining from.

When I referred to “ center stage” I was referring to the media. Not here. 
your a smart man- that is clear.  That’s how I know you understand exactly what I am referring to.

As far as policies go- there is nothing different in Florida policies that can be tied to a single death.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2021, 05:02:04 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 05, 2021, 04:45:52 PM
We don't need to be discussing Biden or Trump on this thread.  Take it somewhere else please.


As it relates to policy and messaging? Perhaps - perhaps not. But I'd like to respond to our friend Geolion, because he asked. And I will respond only with a link.

Fair?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 05, 2021, 05:05:13 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2021, 05:02:04 PM
As it relates to policy and messaging? Perhaps - perhaps not. But I'd like to respond to our friend Geolion, because he asked. And I will respond only with a link.

Fair?
It's your party.


My feedback is-- Mentioning specific leaders is inevitably divisive and causes a shitastic meltdown on this thread.  Historically speaking, that is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2021, 05:08:37 PM
I agree. The information is out there to be found, if one so chooses. Context matters too - however, most people don't give a shit about context, and only hear words. And, the words were damaging to the cause, in my opinion.

It's unfortunate.

I will not link anything. This thread is yours to own. I'm not going to poop in it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 05, 2021, 05:10:47 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2021, 05:08:37 PM
I agree. The information is out there to be found, if one so chooses. Context matters too - however, most people don't give a shit about context, and only hear words. And, the words were damaging to the cause, in my opinion.

It's unfortunate.

I will not link anything. This thread is yours to own. I'm not going to poop in it.
I hear you 847. It would be super easy to post 10 video links in 10 minutes or less to prove your point of candidates claiming they wouldn’t get the vaccine, prior to the presidential election. 

You would have to have lived under a rock to not be aware of it as it was a main theme.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 05, 2021, 05:11:50 PM
To your other point 847, context.  This is a headline today and a major publication in Michigan.  What were you saying about seasonality?

I’m going to take a wild but educated guess that the national media will be silent on this, of course.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 05, 2021, 05:13:42 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 05, 2021, 05:10:47 PM
I hear you 847. It would be super easy to post 10 video links in 10 minutes or less to prove your point of candidates claiming they wouldn’t get the vaccine, prior to the presidential election.

You would have to have lived under a rock to not be aware of it as it was a main theme.
Awesome, feel free to create a thread for that and discuss it elsewhere.

Next political post gets deleted.

Just stahp it.  Please.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 05, 2021, 05:28:38 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 05, 2021, 04:55:48 PM
When I referred to “ center stage” I was referring to the media. Not here. 
your a smart man- that is clear.  That’s how I know you understand exactly what I am referring to.

As far as policies go- there is nothing different in Florida policies that can be tied to a single death.
True. I'm saying the media wasn't going to be discussing Florida's case decreases ad nauseum for multiple reasons:



My point was that even if #1 wasn't true, it wouldn't be worth discussing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 05, 2021, 10:43:12 PM
the media isn't worth discussing

far better information on this thread

most of the time
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 06, 2021, 08:34:40 AM
I do appreciate the posters here who find useful information on the topic and post it, even if it's a bit off topic, the flu thing is fascinating to me.

I think we get a reasonable picture of reality by scanning a lot of different sources of information, but it takes effort, collective effort.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 06, 2021, 11:56:00 AM
Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine—but vaccination remains vital | Science | AAAS (https://www.science.org/content/article/having-sars-cov-2-once-confers-much-greater-immunity-vaccine-vaccination-remains-vital?fbclid=IwAR0b_sEQfxKM4aoTBMBFBmHQLwQrLgFnI26EzoRBdCcpQjHOEZo_PbZCgtw)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 06, 2021, 12:20:31 PM
It's from a source called "Science.org" so we have no choice but to believe it!

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 06, 2021, 12:33:45 PM
I find the AAAS to be credible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on October 06, 2021, 02:08:00 PM
The media might not be worth discussing, but trying to blame the media for your own bad decisions is a cop-out at best.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 06, 2021, 02:23:26 PM
It's all about messaging GR. 

Many have gotten the Vax thinking they would not be required to wear a mask (CDC said so). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 06, 2021, 02:25:27 PM
I figured it was pretty clear we'd need masks in confined spaces no matter what.  I've had to show my vaccine card once so far, and they are easily fabricated.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 06, 2021, 02:38:09 PM
It'd take less time to go get the shot,not that there's anything wrong with that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 06, 2021, 02:43:10 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 06, 2021, 02:23:26 PM
It's all about messaging GR.

Many have gotten the Vax thinking they would not be required to wear a mask (CDC said so).
IMHO the only problem with Vax = no mask is not the policy, it's the enforcement. 

The official California mandate (although LA County and 7 Bay Area counties have more restrictive local measures) is that people who are vaccinated don't have to wear masks in indoor spaces, while people who are not vaccinated DO have to wear masks. 

But the problem is:



So now governments are realizing that the unvaxxed are just walking around unmasked, so they want to put mask mandates on everyone again. Which punishes the vaxxed while not actually incentivizing the unvaxxed to get the shot. 

And thus the vaxxed (like me) are the ones mad about it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 06, 2021, 02:45:23 PM
Yup.  The very few times the media has reported broadly on topics in which I have some expertise, I was, well, chagrined about the misinformation.  

We're leaving on a two hour flight Friday, I'll be masked probably four hours mostly.  We're in first and I plan to take my time dining.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 06, 2021, 02:46:13 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 06, 2021, 02:43:10 PM
IMHO the only problem with Vax = no mask is not the policy, it's the enforcement.

The official California mandate (although LA County and 7 Bay Area counties have more restrictive local measures) is that people who are vaccinated don't have to wear masks in indoor spaces, while people who are not vaccinated DO have to wear masks.

But the problem is:

  • If you require the unvaxxed to wear the mask and not the vaxxed, but nobody actually checks it, those who are unvaxxed will just not wear masks. This disparate requirement doesn't actually incentivize the unvaxxed to get the jab.
  • If you require everyone to wear the mask, whether vaxxed or unvaxxed, then there is no benefit to getting the jab that would incentivize those who haven't to do so. They have to wear a mask whether they get it or not, so why get it?


So now governments are realizing that the unvaxxed are just walking around unmasked, so they want to put mask mandates on everyone again. Which punishes the vaxxed while not actually incentivizing the unvaxxed to get the shot.

And thus the vaxxed (like me) are the ones mad about it.
see thats the whole point
there should be no requiring of anything
if you get vaxed youre good to go if you dont then whatever happens to you is your own fault
we have to start living our life
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 06, 2021, 02:59:03 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 06, 2021, 02:45:23 PM
Yup.  The very few times the media has reported broadly on topics in which I have some expertise, I was, well, chagrined about the misinformation. 

We're leaving on a two hour flight Friday, I'll be masked probably four hours mostly.  We're in first and I plan to take my time dining.


I bring a bag of pretzels now, and lots of water.

The last flight I was on... the guy with the microphone said everyone had to wear a mask, including between bites while chewing. Between bites while chewing? Seriously?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 06, 2021, 05:29:27 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/3Cdk408.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 07, 2021, 10:24:01 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 06, 2021, 02:46:13 PM
see thats the whole point
there should be no requiring of anything
if you get vaxed youre good to go if you dont then whatever happens to you is your own fault
we have to start living our life
Man, I must be pretty skilled. 

I’ve perfected the art of living my life while also wearing a mask in many non-eating indoor situations. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 07, 2021, 10:42:05 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 07, 2021, 10:24:01 AM
Man, I must be pretty skilled.

I’ve perfected the art of living my life while also wearing a mask in many non-eating indoor situations.
not saying masks should not be worn

only that they should not be mandated by the government if you have been vaccinated

a private business is free to do what ever they want but not the government
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 07, 2021, 10:53:03 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 07, 2021, 10:42:05 AM
not saying masks should not be worn

only that they should not be mandated by the government if you have been vaccinated

a private business is free to do what ever they want but not the government
Word.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 07, 2021, 10:57:08 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 07, 2021, 10:24:01 AM
Man, I must be pretty skilled.

I’ve perfected the art of living my life while also wearing a mask in many non-eating indoor situations.
You do whatever you like.  That's the entire point. It's a free country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 07, 2021, 11:15:48 AM
Quote from: utee94 on October 07, 2021, 10:57:08 AM
You do whatever you like.  That's the entire point. It's a free country.
<looks at the withholding on my last pay stub>

If it's a free country, I'm getting overcharged.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 07, 2021, 11:19:05 AM
Quote from: utee94 on October 07, 2021, 10:57:08 AM
You do whatever you like.  That's the entire point. It's a free country.
You feel you simply can't live your life if you wear the mask ... are we talking more than even an hour on an average day? (I don't know if you have to wear one all day at the office. That's obviously a different thing)

(The relative "freedom" of the country in this context is a slightly different topic, but I won't delve into it right now)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 07, 2021, 11:40:23 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 07, 2021, 11:15:48 AM
<looks at the withholding on my last pay stub>

If it's a free country, I'm getting overcharged.
Free my ass?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 07, 2021, 11:42:41 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 07, 2021, 11:19:05 AM
You feel you simply can't live your life if you wear the mask 

That's not what any of us are getting at. I can live my life just fine wearing the mask.

The question is whether I should have the choice to do so, or whether the government should tell me I must do so. 

Both 94 and I said that a mask mandate is justifiable pre-vaccine. But now that the vaccine is widely available and everyone who wants one has gotten it, the mandate is no longer justifiable. 

It's not that we can't wear a mask. It's that the situation has changed now that we have the vaccine, so now it should be a personal decision (or a requirement voluntarily set by a business if they so choose). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 07, 2021, 11:43:14 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 07, 2021, 11:40:23 AM
Free my ass?
94 wants to free his face, and I support that. Please keep your ass covered, Badge. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 07, 2021, 11:44:45 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/vbfIay6.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 07, 2021, 11:48:54 AM
DAMMIT BADGE!

I was so curious about what that was hanging on I zoomed in. This is nearly as bad as when people post that damn Bret photo. (Also funny)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 07, 2021, 11:51:44 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 07, 2021, 11:44:45 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/vbfIay6.png)
😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 07, 2021, 12:03:23 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 07, 2021, 11:42:41 AM
That's not what any of us are getting at. I can live my life just fine wearing the mask.

The question is whether I should have the choice to do so, or whether the government should tell me I must do so.

Both 94 and I said that a mask mandate is justifiable pre-vaccine. But now that the vaccine is widely available and everyone who wants one has gotten it, the mandate is no longer justifiable.

It's not that we can't wear a mask. It's that the situation has changed now that we have the vaccine, so now it should be a personal decision (or a requirement voluntarily set by a business if they so choose).
I was responding to a comment that said we need to get back to living our lives. 

I functionally agree with you. I'm interested in the need at all (namely the protection of the involuntarily unvaccinated and questions of if the other folks get it, does that lead to a mutation), but freely admit, we might well have already crossed even that rubicon. 

It's the drama of it all. Not only the excessive lamenting over pretty mild discomfort, but the idea that this is this banner point of freedom. We are restricted all over the place. In the act of sitting in my apartment, making lunch and driving into work (which I need to do), I will be impacted by a wide range of government edicts. So many "freedoms" will be curtailed. 

Every day has onerous annoyances and government impacts on our lives life. We can say these ones have run their course without acting like this very mild thing is a catastrophe of liberty or personal comfort. (Also, we can live our lives by literally only wearing a mask when asked, and outside airports, probably be pretty fine in most cases)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 07, 2021, 12:14:50 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 07, 2021, 11:19:05 AM
You feel you simply can't live your life if you wear the mask ... are we talking more than even an hour on an average day? (I don't know if you have to wear one all day at the office. That's obviously a different thing)

(The relative "freedom" of the country in this context is a slightly different topic, but I won't delve into it right now)


Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 07, 2021, 11:42:41 AM
That's not what any of us are getting at. I can live my life just fine wearing the mask.

The question is whether I should have the choice to do so, or whether the government should tell me I must do so.

Both 94 and I said that a mask mandate is justifiable pre-vaccine. But now that the vaccine is widely available and everyone who wants one has gotten it, the mandate is no longer justifiable.

It's not that we can't wear a mask. It's that the situation has changed now that we have the vaccine, so now it should be a personal decision (or a requirement voluntarily set by a business if they so choose).

Everything bwar said.

And the fact that you can type "relative freedom" as if there is any such thing, is a huge part of the problem right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 07, 2021, 12:41:11 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 07, 2021, 12:03:23 PM
It's the drama of it all. Not only the excessive lamenting over pretty mild discomfort, but the idea that this is this banner point of freedom. We are restricted all over the place. In the act of sitting in my apartment, making lunch and driving into work (which I need to do), I will be impacted by a wide range of government edicts. So many "freedoms" will be curtailed.
Yeah, I do get that. 

It's a strange hill to choose to die on...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 07, 2021, 12:48:32 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 07, 2021, 12:41:11 PM
Yeah, I do get that.

I don't really get that.  I don't see anyone on THIS site being dramatic about it.  Many of us have said we'd rather not wear it because it's uncomfortable.  Or in badgerfan's case, it actively made him feel unwell.  And we've also said that in a post-vaccine world, the government should not be granted the privilege to abridge these particular rights.

But we're all still wearing it into private businesses that post signs saying they require it, and we're all still wearing it into government buildings in locations where it's mandated, and we're not pitching anti-mask protests and barreling over Home Depot employees that are trying to ask us to wear a mask.  We have mask mandates in my school district and my kids are wearing them for 8+ hours every single day, and I'm not down at the school board meetings raising hell and demanding change.

If you're seeing people elsewhere make a big deal out of it and protesting and whatnot, that's fine, but it's not representative of what's happening here.

If we're bringing in what's happening elsewhere, I'm seeing the majority of the drama coming from the people that just can't stand the thought of anyone NOT wearing a mask, NOT blindly following non-science-based government edicts to wear masks despite being vaccinated, and literally calling out people that don't want to wear a mask, as old-people-killers.  That's the main group where I'm seeing any drama.

But again, that's not really here on this site.

Mostly.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 07, 2021, 01:22:25 PM
I love when my life is affected by other people's sliding scales of stupidity and selfishness.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 07, 2021, 01:23:36 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 07, 2021, 01:22:25 PM
I love when my life is affected by other people's sliding scales of stupidity and selfishness.
IF you don't want to be affected by other people's stupidity and selfishness with respect to COVID, you should make sure you have the vaccine.  And that all of your loved ones do as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 07, 2021, 01:27:15 PM
Agreed. I've seen a little bit of drama, both ways, on this site, but not very much. Which is why I like hanging out here.

I think what BAB is getting at is that he's seeing a LOT of drama, both ways, outside of this site. Which I'd also agree with. Which is why I hate humanity in general. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 07, 2021, 01:29:14 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 07, 2021, 01:23:36 PM
IF you don't want to be affected by other people's stupidity and selfishness with respect to COVID, you should make sure you have the vaccine.  And that all of your loved ones do as well.
I did.

And I get to teach in a mask all day.  It's great.  I love it.  It's a blast. 
All because the very best and brightest among us won't get a gubmit-issued Illuminati shot. 
FFS
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 07, 2021, 01:30:03 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 07, 2021, 12:48:32 PM
I don't really get that.  I don't see anyone on THIS site being dramatic about it.  Many of us have said we'd rather not wear it because it's uncomfortable.  Or in badgerfan's case, it actively made him feel unwell.  And we've also said that in a post-vaccine world, the government should not be granted the privilege to abridge these particular rights.

I get all that, and agree with 98 percent. And when I’m off work I’ll go a little deeper into the relative freedom thing because I think it’s interesting.

I think we sort of differ in a small way. I think it’s a mundane question. It seems I’m somewhat of a rarity. I get the sense others do not think this is mundane. Now, it being mundane doesn’t mean I think it should be in place. I know the government has the privilege to impede these rights, but at this point, I don’t particularly think they need to be doing so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 07, 2021, 03:13:59 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 07, 2021, 01:29:14 PM
I did.

And I get to teach in a mask all day.  It's great.  I love it.  It's a blast. 
All because the very best and brightest among us won't get a gubmit-issued Illuminati shot. 
FFS
If the government is requiring vaccinated people to wear masks and you don't like that, take it up with the government, rather than your fellow man.  They had their chance.  Eff 'em*.


*I am of course excepting that tiny percentage of people that have a legitimate medical reason not to get the vaccine.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 07, 2021, 03:21:03 PM
Anyway, it's been fun discussing this with you all, but I must now head off to Dallas to root on the good guys in burnt orange, against the toothless crimson hordes of the north.

Y'all have a great weekend.

HOOK 'EM HORNS!!!!


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 07, 2021, 03:27:08 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 07, 2021, 03:21:03 PM
Anyway, it's been fun discussing this with you all, but I must now head off to Dallas to root on the good guys in burnt orange, against the toothless crimson hordes of the north.

Y'all have a great weekend.

HOOK 'EM HORNS!!!!



We'll make sure to let you know (when you return) about all the cleanup you'll be doing on this thread.

Enjoy!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 07, 2021, 03:31:32 PM

Quote from: utee94 on October 07, 2021, 03:21:03 PM

Anyway, it's been fun discussing this with you all, but I must now head off to Dallas to root on the good guys in burnt orange, against the toothless crimson hordes of the north.

Y'all have a great weekend.

HOOK 'EM HORNS!!!!



The lack of teeth helps with … 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 07, 2021, 04:01:34 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 07, 2021, 03:31:32 PM
The lack of teeth helps with …


Oh geez! :0


Have a good one, bab.  I do honestly enjoy discussing with you.  Best of luck to your badgers this weekend against them fightin' Illini!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 07, 2021, 05:01:55 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 07, 2021, 04:01:34 PM
Oh geez! :0


Have a good one, bab.  I do honestly enjoy discussing with you.  Best of luck to your badgers this weekend against them fightin' Illini!
I didn’t specify. Though now that I think of it, I saw a band from Oklahoma at one point, and they felt good about making that joke. 

If UW can get its stuff together, that would be grand. (And I enjoy it too. We’re not far off from each other, certain definitions and perspectives on definitions differ, but at least we can chew them over. Unlike the BBQ you’ll have this weekend, which will be anything but chewy)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 09, 2021, 08:33:50 AM
I guess we're about done. Hopefully the Northern invasion doesn't ramp things up again down here. They are already starting to flood in. Lots of hurricane shutters coming down in the past week. That means they are here.

(https://i.imgur.com/LuIxh4z.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 09, 2021, 08:37:50 AM
Florida zoomed up the list in deaths/million population with the last wave of delta. Hopefully that too is on the down slope. Looks like it is, based on the below. 98 percent of those who passed away in this last round were not vaccinated (heard that on the news a couple of days ago - have not verified personally).

(https://i.imgur.com/9zIbrMB.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 09, 2021, 12:00:43 PM
You sneaking around morgues decked out in Badger gear, only leaving behind the smell of bbq would be better than most of the CSI shows already out there....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 09, 2021, 12:04:19 PM
WUT?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 09, 2021, 12:49:44 PM
Verifying every death personally.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 09, 2021, 12:56:52 PM
OAM is confused...

Badge grills. He doesn't BBQ. That's me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 09, 2021, 02:19:38 PM
Correct. No BBQ in the lanai. That would not be a good thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 09, 2021, 03:37:44 PM
lol, the lead blocker didn't have anyone to hit until the 2 yard line....sheesh.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 09, 2021, 03:42:19 PM
Ole Miss and the Hogs are twelving too!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 11, 2021, 08:03:22 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 29, 2020, 01:14:22 PM
You know what would be bad? Bad would be if this topic made it to 2000 pages.

God, I hope it doesn't.
From a year and half ago and only 870 to go - and I hope you're right
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on October 14, 2021, 01:24:03 AM
It was reported to me yesterday that two former clients died of COVID-19 the past two days. The virus was running rampantly through one of those families. Ten-days ago it ran through another family I represented.
Vaccinate yourselves or face death, and hospitalization, discomfort, and fear. WTH?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 14, 2021, 08:31:35 AM
Interesting, from Australia.

Catching Covid after you are vaccinated improves immunity | The Courier Mail (https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/dont-freak-out-catching-covid-after-you-are-vaccinated-improves-immunity/news-story/a65e560935dc5f4a271e9bcba226478e)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 14, 2021, 08:53:39 AM
Looks like there's a paywall.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 14, 2021, 09:04:51 AM
Quote from: utee94 on October 14, 2021, 08:53:39 AM
Looks like there's a paywall.
I fix.

Don’t freak out: Catching Covid after you are vaccinated improves immunity
If you are fully vaccinated against Covid the next step to improve your immunity may be to actually catch the virus.
(https://news-networkeditorial.s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/bob/authors/dunlevy_sue.png) (https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/journalists/sue-dunlevy)Sue Dunlevy (https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/journalists/sue-dunlevy)
Follow
(https://twitter.com/Sue_Dunlevy)

@Sue_Dunlevy (https://twitter.com/Sue_Dunlevy)

3 min read
October 10, 2021 - 4:00AM
News Corp Australia Network



For 20 months we’ve cowered behind masks, scrubbed ourselves with hand sanitizer and socially distanced to avoid Covid — now most people are vaccinated, experts are telling us we need to prepare to catch the virus.

It sounds counterintuitive but the argument is if you are vaccinated and catch Covid, you are unlikely to get seriously ill or go to hospital and getting the virus will further boost your immunity.


The new message comes as infections in the US and worldwide appear to have peaked and some scientists are noticing the virus has a wave pattern — two months of high infections followed by a decline then two months of high infections.

With lockdowns in three states due to ease in coming weeks Australian National University’s infectious diseases expert Professor Peter Collignon and University of Newcastle’s Professor Nathan Bartlett said fully vaccinated people needed to change their attitude to the virus.

Prepare yourself to be infected and don’t “freak out” if you do catch it when lockdowns end, they said.

“You might want to get it, you definitely want to get it. You definitely want to be vaccinated before you get it, because if you’re vaccinated your risk of death goes down,” said Prof. Collignon.

Prof. Bartlett said: “It’s immunity you want supported by the vaccine but then sort of topped up, by circulation and that’s really is what’s going to ultimately lead to make this turn this virus into basically an endemic, common cold causing virus, and that’s what you want it to be”.


The head of the Australian Society of Infectious diseases (ASID) Allen Cheng said he expected “everyone will probably be exposed, eventually.”

“We want to be vaccinated, so we have the best defenses against it when it happens that we meet the virus,” he said.

A study by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and another by one of Israel’s largest health providers found people who’d recovered from Covid and were later vaccinated had half the risk of reinfection compared with unvaccinated people who’d previously had Covid.


The Kaolinska Institute’s Charlotte Thalin told The Conversation combining natural infection with protection from a vaccine may work better because natural infection exposes our immune system to several viral proteins while vaccines introduce a single antigen: the spike protein.

But, like the other experts, she cautions you want to be vaccinated before getting infected because getting a natural infection first exposes you to the risks of death, blood clots and long Covid.

Tokyo Olympics gold medalist swimmer Madison Wilson is living proof of how vaccination can protect a person even if they catch the infection.


The 27 year old was hospitalized for four days with Covid on September 19, but went on win a Gold medal in the 200 metre freestyle event at the FINA championships on October 3.

Ms. Wilson said she “truly believed” the vaccine had minimized her symptoms.

“I want to continue to encourage people to get vaccinated, I did end up in hospital but that is as a precaution because I do have underlying chest and lung issues,” she said.

Her win at the international competition “means even more with what I’ve, what I’ve gone through in the last couple of weeks,” she said.
After being released from hospital in Rome, she spent 11 days in hotel quarantine which meant she was unable to train in a pool.

She said it “was one of the hardest things I’ve ever had to do not only physically but mentally laying on my back for that period of time.”

“But everything that I’ve learned over the last few weeks is the mind is incredibly strong and probably even stronger than what the body is,” she said.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on October 14, 2021, 10:04:18 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on September 30, 2021, 10:32:33 AM
My Doctor wasted no time shooting down my request to “kick the second shot down the road.” Other than the “digestive discomfort” he says the symptoms I went through “isn’t too uncommon.” Says unless I’m experiencing Anaphylaxis there's NO justification to write anything that lets a patient delay the second shot.

Second shot is schedule for October 12. I’ll tough out whatever reactions comes of it; lucky for me California’s Dept of Labor allows for up to a workweek of excused absence should my lower back act up again.


Aftermath of second shot is as miserable as first. After yesterday’s second Pfizer dose I awoke at 1AM consumed by pounding headaches, zapped energy, and cold sweats. Still continuing two days later. At this point I wish I’d foregone the vaccine and risked Covid, the symptoms of which can’t be worse. Really hoping boosters aren’t mandated six months from now.

EDIT: I stand corrected, it could be worse
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 14, 2021, 10:22:27 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 14, 2021, 08:31:35 AM
Interesting, from Australia.

Catching Covid after you are vaccinated improves immunity | The Courier Mail (https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/dont-freak-out-catching-covid-after-you-are-vaccinated-improves-immunity/news-story/a65e560935dc5f4a271e9bcba226478e)

Very interesting, Badge, and thanks for sharing.

It alludes to, but IMHO doesn't answer, the question I've had for a long time:

If natural infection (per the Israeli study) confers stronger immunity than the vaccine, and vaccination after natural infection confers stronger immunity than either, what is the effect of natural infection for the vaccinated?

Unfortunately, this article talks about the opinion of experts, rather than anything that has actually been proven via study--or at least if there is any actual study, they didn't cite it at all by name or even implication. I'd highlight that the source is also News Corp, which doesn't invalidate what they're saying but it makes me more likely to suspect political editorial bias in the article. 

I think what they're saying is probably true, though. I personally was never overly scared of the virus myself, due to my age and health. I was more concerned that I might pass it to someone much more vulnerable. But there was always the very low chance that I'd be one of those who was perfectly healthy and still ended up being a virus death statistic. Now that I'm vaccinated, that chance is much lower than ever before, so I am not actually concerned about catching the virus--and there's a part of me that thinks it would be beneficial for my immune system to face it post-vax so that I can improve immunity. I'm not going to be going to any COVID parties or something stupid like that, but I'm not taking extraordinary efforts to avoid it either.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on October 14, 2021, 10:24:23 AM
I got the booster Tuesday. No real symptoms other than a sore arm, although Tuesday night I woke up completely wired after a couple hours of sleep. Not sure that is vaccine related or what, but it was weird. Maybe the microchips were getting turned on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 14, 2021, 10:27:22 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on October 14, 2021, 10:04:18 AM
Aftermath of second shot is as miserable as first. After yesterday’s second Pfizer dose I awoke at 1AM consumed by pounding headaches, zapped energy, and cold sweats. Still continuing two days later. At this point I wish I’d foregone the vaccine and risked Covid, the symptoms of which can’t be worse. Really hoping boosters aren’t mandated six months from now.
Sorry to hear that the second shot knocked you on your ass again. I hope it passes soon. 

As mentioned, you or your doctor should report the symptoms to VAERS, so at the very least it is recorded. 

That said, the symptoms of COVID can be worse, much worse, than what you're describing. A few days of this nightmare is better than being on a ventilator or in a morgue. Those outcomes are unlikely, of course, but so are the side effects you're experiencing from the vaccine. 

Again, hope it gets better soon... Sorry that you're one of the few that got hit with these nasty side effects. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Geolion91 on October 14, 2021, 10:42:45 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on October 14, 2021, 10:04:18 AM
Aftermath of second shot is as miserable as first. After yesterday’s second Pfizer dose I awoke at 1AM consumed by pounding headaches, zapped energy, and cold sweats. Still continuing two days later. At this point I wish I’d foregone the vaccine and risked Covid, the symptoms of which can’t be worse. Really hoping boosters aren’t mandated six months from now.
Really?  I got to stay overnight in the hospital with atrial fibrillation, on Christmas Eve, thanks to COVID.  I wish the vaccine had been available to me before I went through that.  Fortunately, I wasn't so bad off and didn't require a ventilator.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 14, 2021, 11:59:33 AM
I say this not directly to Catsby, but to all. 

Anything can always be worse. Always. Even if we sometimes lack imagination. I think if this often when a friend of a friend who likes the Browns was lamenting a coach who went a deist 7-9 in year 1 and fell to 3-13. Can’t be worse the fellow said.

They went 1-31 the first two years with the next coach, then fired him after 2-5 in Year 3. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Abba on October 14, 2021, 01:26:46 PM
Hue Jackson is a great NFL coach.  Or at least he tells he us he is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 14, 2021, 05:07:02 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 14, 2021, 10:22:27 AM
Very interesting, Badge, and thanks for sharing.

It alludes to, but IMHO doesn't answer, the question I've had for a long time:

If natural infection (per the Israeli study) confers stronger immunity than the vaccine, and vaccination after natural infection confers stronger immunity than either, what is the effect of natural infection for the vaccinated?

Unfortunately, this article talks about the opinion of experts, rather than anything that has actually been proven via study--or at least if there is any actual study, they didn't cite it at all by name or even implication. I'd highlight that the source is also News Corp, which doesn't invalidate what they're saying but it makes me more likely to suspect political editorial bias in the article.

I think what they're saying is probably true, though. I personally was never overly scared of the virus myself, due to my age and health. I was more concerned that I might pass it to someone much more vulnerable. But there was always the very low chance that I'd be one of those who was perfectly healthy and still ended up being a virus death statistic. Now that I'm vaccinated, that chance is much lower than ever before, so I am not actually concerned about catching the virus--and there's a part of me that thinks it would be beneficial for my immune system to face it post-vax so that I can improve immunity. I'm not going to be going to any COVID parties or something stupid like that, but I'm not taking extraordinary efforts to avoid it either. 
Perfectly healthy? Didn’t we agreed that you were considered overweight and therefore had one of them comorbidities?

(speaking of someone who would be considered healthy in a lot of different ways, at least before a job change through a bunch of my habits out of whack, and is still technically overweight)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 14, 2021, 06:33:10 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 14, 2021, 05:07:02 PM
Perfectly healthy? Didn’t we agreed that you were considered overweight and therefore had one of them comorbidities?

(speaking of someone who would be considered healthy in a lot of different ways, at least before a job change through a bunch of my habits out of whack, and is still technically overweight)
Fair point... My BMI is slightly over 30, so I am technically obese. 

I know when California was opening up the various tranches of vaccine eligibility, they wouldn't allow you to get it just due to obesity, it was due to a BMI >= 40. 

That said, BMI is bullshit. Most professional athletes are considered overweight or obese via BMI because while their body fat is miniscule, their muscle mass is WAY outside the mainstream. I'm not comparing myself to a professional athlete--my body fat % is something I need to reduce. But my muscle mass is pretty far outside the mainstream, so much so that my own doctor basically said BMI doesn't apply to me (while he said I should cut some fat). 

Now, what I don't know is whether COVID bad effects correlate purely to higher BMI, or whether they correlate to the bad health that usually correlates with higher BMI. I also don't know how linear they are--do they really ramp up at BMI of 30, or do they really ramp up at morbidly obese BMIs of 40 or more? 

Either way, I think I'm actually pretty safely in a "low risk" group. My BMI might elevate it somewhat, but if so it's only one comorbidity and it's just barely in the obese category at all. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 14, 2021, 06:37:50 PM
I'm 5-8. I'm at 220 pounds +/-, so I'm obese, technically. 

But, my muscle weighs in at 175 pounds (professionally checked). My body fat is around 16%.

I'm not obese, but I might use that to sneak in line for a booster. 

Moderna is a 50% dose, when approved.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 14, 2021, 06:48:29 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 14, 2021, 06:37:50 PM
I'm 5-8. I'm at 220 pounds +/-, so I'm obese, technically.

But, my muscle weighs in at 175 pounds (professionally checked). My body fat is around 16%.

I'm not obese, but I might use that to sneak in line for a booster.

Moderna is a 50% dose, when approved.
220# - 16% = 185#
185# - 175# muscle = 10#

You might want to get checked for osteoporosis... If your bones plus all your non-muscle mass (organs, brain, etc) only weigh 10#, you might not even have any bones, Badge!

Maybe it's just avian bone syndrome?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofkem-qzr1o
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 14, 2021, 07:59:48 PM
Bones are about 10 pounds. I know this from cremating by parents. 

Organs are included in muscle mass.

You need to study more, uneducated engine ear. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 14, 2021, 11:58:19 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 14, 2021, 07:59:48 PM

Bones are about 10 pounds. I know this from cremating by parents.

Organs are included in muscle mass.

You need to study more, uneducated engine ear.
Man ain't a doctor or a mortician. 

(Interestingly, Minnesota has a school of mortuary science. Finding the brochure was a highlight of my college visit there)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 15, 2021, 01:22:06 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 14, 2021, 07:59:48 PM
Bones are about 10 pounds. I know this from cremating by parents.

Organs are included in muscle mass.

You need to study more, uneducated engine ear.
How much does a tit weigh?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Geolion91 on October 15, 2021, 08:22:48 AM
I'm guessing that can vary widely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2021, 09:24:09 AM
I'm guessing post cremated bones weigh cornsiderably less than pre cremated bones
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 15, 2021, 09:31:38 AM
No, they do not. 

Bones do not burn.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2021, 09:32:58 AM
PARIS — COVID-19 tests in France are no longer free for unvaccinated adults unless they are prescribed by a doctor.

While tests remain free for vaccinated adults and all children under 18, adults who have not gotten their shots will have to pay 22-45 euros ($25-$52) to get tested as of Friday.

The government introduced the change as a complement to the COVID-19 passes that have been required in France since the summer. To get a pass, people need to show proof of vaccination, a recent negative test or recent recovery from the virus.

The passes are required to visit tourist sites, for hospital visits and on domestic train trips and flights. The pass requirement, announced in July, helped boost France’s vaccination rate.

Over 49 million people, or about 74% of the population, are fully vaccinated against the coronavirus in France. Everyone age 12 and older are eligible for shots.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 15, 2021, 10:06:14 AM
The flu shot can stop these severe COVID-19 symptoms (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/the-flu-shot-can-stop-these-severe-covid-19-symptoms/ar-AAPyJFp?ocid=msedgntp)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2021, 10:13:39 AM
OK, OK, I'll get a flu shot!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 15, 2021, 11:17:46 AM
Went to the doctor, they weighted me in shoes with full pockets. So my BMI is officially 28.2. 

I still need to reduce a bit in the middle, eat more veggies, but I’m mostly not concerned about all that. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 15, 2021, 11:37:36 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 15, 2021, 09:31:38 AM
Bones do not burn.
You have to go see the Doc if a boner burns though,I know i did. Suggested I stay out of Juicy Lucy's - the nerve
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2021, 12:13:13 PM
Welcome to Matt's Bar!

Home of the Original “Jucy Lucy”

Matt’s Bar & Grill, now a Minneapolis landmark, began in 1954 as a neighborhood burger eatery. Shortly after we opened, founder Matt Bristol explains how the “Jucy Lucy” was created when a local customer asked for two hamburger patties with a slice of cheese in the middle. Upon biting into this new, molten hot burger, he exclaimed “that’s one juicy Lucy”, and a legend was born. Customer demand grew so quickly, we forgot to add the “i” and the “Jucy Lucy” has now become a local culinary hero. Remember, if it’s spelled correctly, you just might be eating a shameless ripoff!


(https://mattsbar.com/MATTS_5-2021_IMG_9746.jpg)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 15, 2021, 12:21:30 PM
I freaking love a Jucy Lucy at Matt's Bar!!

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2021, 12:53:57 PM
Up to half of Chicago's rank-and-file police officers could be placed on unpaid leave starting Friday because of a dispute between their union and Mayor Lori Lightfoot over a city requirement for officers to disclose their vaccine status.

The dispute in Chicago is emblematic of tension across the country between unions and employers as cities and businesses seek to enforce vaccine mandates. At least 228 officers have died of Covid-19 this year compared to 245 last year, according to the Officer Down Memorial Page.

Covid is the leading cause of death for officers despite them being among the first groups having access to the vaccine at the end of last year.

At least 120 officers in San Francisco will be off the street after failing to comply with the city's vaccine mandate, CNN affiliate KGO reported. Eighty of the 120 police officers work in the department's patrol division, San Francisco Police Officers Association vice president Tracy McCray said.

In a message to officers in Chicago, their union president framed the issue as an employment dispute between the city and the officers.

"I've made my status very clear as far as the vaccine, but I do not believe the city has the authority to mandate that to anybody let alone that information about your medical history and change the terms of employment so to speak on the fly," said John Catanzara, president of the local Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) lodge. Earlier this month, the former president of the union died of Covid. He served as president from 2014 until 2017.


https://news.lee.net/news/national/up-to-half-of-chicago-police-officers-could-be-put-on-unpaid-leave-over-vaccine/article_81e630ea-2d2a-11ec-b9ea-cf4f51d9a64a.html?fbclid=IwAR1hPUCdDUADb9FUvbV4eAelmiUW-HhkpuGZ2T8zC98YsfUXF5OdKxmEBfg (https://news.lee.net/news/national/up-to-half-of-chicago-police-officers-could-be-put-on-unpaid-leave-over-vaccine/article_81e630ea-2d2a-11ec-b9ea-cf4f51d9a64a.html?fbclid=IwAR1hPUCdDUADb9FUvbV4eAelmiUW-HhkpuGZ2T8zC98YsfUXF5OdKxmEBfg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 15, 2021, 01:05:01 PM
Half of Chicago's police force quits...

...does anyone even notice?




:)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 15, 2021, 01:11:28 PM
Wrong thread for that article.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on October 15, 2021, 01:13:49 PM
Considering that COVID is the leading killer of police officers in the last two years, you'd think they'd be leaning on their membership to get vaccinated rather than fighting them.

As for resignation threats, they tend to be full of sound and fury but contain very little substance.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/09/27/metro/state-police-union-claims-dozens-troopers-plan-resign-due-vaccine-mandate-police-spokesman-says-only-one-definitively-has/

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2021, 01:17:41 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 15, 2021, 01:11:28 PM
Wrong thread for that article.
sorry, didn't see the vaccine thread
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 15, 2021, 02:07:32 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 15, 2021, 10:13:39 AM
OK, OK, I'll get a flu shot!
Getting mine this afternoon. 

Quote from: bayareabadger on October 15, 2021, 11:17:46 AM
Went to the doctor, they weighted me in shoes with full pockets. So my BMI is officially 28.2.

I still need to reduce a bit in the middle, eat more veggies, but I’m mostly not concerned about all that.
Yeah, BMI is a crude measure. I've heard that for men, a very critical measurement is having a <40" waist, and I'm sitting just fine at 38" despite being a very large human being and having a BMI over 30. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 15, 2021, 04:32:14 PM
Got my fly shot a few weeks ago during my annual physical.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 15, 2021, 04:33:04 PM
Also my 12yo is now fully vaxed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 16, 2021, 08:03:46 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/IbSiGvK.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 16, 2021, 08:05:55 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/hNPSV1z.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 16, 2021, 09:45:55 AM
Unvaccinated 19 times more likely to die with COVID-19, 9 times more likely to be hospitalized | State & Regional | kenoshanews.com (https://www.kenoshanews.com/news/state-and-regional/unvaccinated-19-times-more-likely-to-die-with-covid-19-9-times-more-likely-to/article_d9a04384-a818-55d9-ad5f-6dd44eb70f05.html)

(https://i.imgur.com/9Q6XrNu.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 16, 2021, 10:13:27 AM
let's promote this message clearly
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 16, 2021, 07:18:44 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 16, 2021, 10:13:27 AM
let's promote this message clearly
Amen, brutha.

I recently encountered someone within my actual circle of friends, that hasn't been vaccinated.  I was surprised, I really assumed she had been.

She's not an anti-vaxxer or hardcore political person from ANY party.  She's had what she believes are some reactions to flu vaccines over the years and just doesn't want to endure it.

I have just been beating her over the head with the stats and data lately (in a polite and respectful way of course), and I think I've got her coming around.  She agreed to at the very least discuss it with her doctor, and I'm hopeful that her doctor will be very forceful.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 16, 2021, 08:09:25 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 16, 2021, 07:18:44 PM
Amen, brutha.

I recently encountered someone within my actual circle of friends, that hasn't been vaccinated.  I was surprised, I really assumed she had been.

She's not an anti-vaxxer or hardcore political person from ANY party.  She's had what she believes are some reactions to flu vaccines over the years and just doesn't want to endure it.

I have just been beating her over the head with the stats and data lately (in a polite and respectful way of course), and I think I've got her coming around.  She agreed to at the very least discuss it with her doctor, and I'm hopeful that her doctor will be very forceful.


That was my better half- for the longest time.  She just doesn’t react well to shots.  
I finally got her converted a couple months back. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 16, 2021, 08:14:49 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 16, 2021, 08:09:25 PM
That was my better half- for the longest time.  She just doesn’t react well to shots. 
I finally got her converted a couple months back.
Great news HB!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 19, 2021, 06:26:55 AM
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/nation/coronavirus/2021/10/19/michigan-among-states-rising-covid-cases-again-what-know/8512266002/?utm_source=detroitnews-Daily%20Briefing&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily_briefing&utm_term=list_article_thumb&utm_content=1008DN-E-NLETTER65

Interesting.  Vermont- A state with one of the highest vaccination rates, is now seeing a faster increase in cases than other states.   Turns out there is seasonality to this as this article points out.  At least that’s the new “spin“.   

Also, covid deaths in 2021 have  surpassed deaths in 2020.   When you think about when the vaccinations became available that’s extremely interesting.  I look forward to discovering what the new “spin“ will be on that.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 19, 2021, 08:06:39 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 19, 2021, 06:26:55 AM
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/nation/coronavirus/2021/10/19/michigan-among-states-rising-covid-cases-again-what-know/8512266002/?utm_source=detroitnews-Daily%20Briefing&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily_briefing&utm_term=list_article_thumb&utm_content=1008DN-E-NLETTER65

Interesting.  Vermont- A state with one of the highest vaccination rates, is now seeing a faster increase in cases than other states.  Turns out there is seasonality to this as this article points out.  At least that’s the new “spin“. 

Also, covid deaths in 2021 have  surpassed deaths in 2020.  When you think about when the vaccinations became available that’s extremely interesting.  I look forward to discovering what the new “spin“ will be on that. 

Not sure there's any spin to be had.  Most everyone expected seasonality with this thing.  Perhaps folks didn't understand that in this case, seasonality coincides not with the astronomical season, but when people in a certain geographical area start spending more time indoors with one another.

And the fact that the vast majority of COVID deaths in 2021 are unvaccinated, really needs no spin at all.  It crystalizes the current ongoing issue quite clearly IMO.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 19, 2021, 08:27:15 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 19, 2021, 06:26:55 AM
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/nation/coronavirus/2021/10/19/michigan-among-states-rising-covid-cases-again-what-know/8512266002/?utm_source=detroitnews-Daily%20Briefing&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily_briefing&utm_term=list_article_thumb&utm_content=1008DN-E-NLETTER65

Interesting.  Vermont- A state with one of the highest vaccination rates, is now seeing a faster increase in cases than other states.  Turns out there is seasonality to this as this article points out.  At least that’s the new “spin“. 

Also, covid deaths in 2021 have  surpassed deaths in 2020.  When you think about when the vaccinations became available that’s extremely interesting.  I look forward to discovering what the new “spin“ will be on that. 
We are a pretty cynical people these days. And an overriding element of that cynicism is to apply it in the moment to get to the point where we can cast some sort of undefinable doubt on something, implying a level of malevolence, and leaving it there. It's a pretty universal thing, and I'm sure I'm often guilty of it. 

What do you think the spin free reality is? Do you think there might be a pretty ironclad logic for why those particular numbers came to be? (Personally, it seems to me we're dealing with a question of a much tighter scope, but we can get to that later)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on October 19, 2021, 08:42:08 AM
I don't know that any of this is particularly surprising. COVID was around in 2020, but didn't really hit all the United States until the last few months of the year. Compared to all of 2021. We will see and continue to see rising cases for as long as we test for them. The vaccine tends to give short term benefits on avoiding infection and long term benefits of avoiding harsh outcomes. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 19, 2021, 08:49:02 AM
Quote from: utee94 on October 19, 2021, 08:06:39 AM
Not sure there's any spin to be had.  Most everyone expected seasonality with this thing.  Perhaps folks didn't understand that in this case, seasonality coincides not with the astronomical season, but when people in a certain geographical area start spending more time indoors with one another.

And the fact that the vast majority of COVID deaths in 2021 are unvaccinated, really needs no spin at all.  It crystalizes the current ongoing issue quite clearly IMO.

Your stating facts. 

I was talking spin.
no need to say anything more since that would take this to different thread. Suffice it to say, spikes earlier this year in different places were NOT attributed to seasonality.  And you know exactly what I mean. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 19, 2021, 08:50:39 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 19, 2021, 08:27:15 AM
We are a pretty cynical people these days. And an overriding element of that cynicism is to apply it in the moment to get to the point where we can cast some sort of undefinable doubt on something, implying a level of malevolence, and leaving it there. It's a pretty universal thing, and I'm sure I'm often guilty of it.

What do you think the spin free reality is? Do you think there might be a pretty ironclad logic for why those particular numbers came to be? (Personally, it seems to me we're dealing with a question of a much tighter scope, but we can get to that later)
Exactly.  And what I posted is a response to those who “ applied it in the moment”. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 19, 2021, 08:54:17 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on October 19, 2021, 08:42:08 AM
I don't know that any of this is particularly surprising. COVID was around in 2020, but didn't really hit all the United States until the last few months of the year. Compared to all of 2021. We will see and continue to see rising cases for as long as we test for them. The vaccine tends to give short term benefits on avoiding infection and long term benefits of avoiding harsh outcomes.
Wow. Ok.  I just remember the death counts in 2020, and where blame was being placed- specifically- all throughout 2020 and especially right around early November.

Vaccine rolls out late 30 and early 21, but now a completely different spin. 

I just find it amusing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on October 19, 2021, 09:37:02 AM
data being released by UK gov't showing that over 70% of all COVID deaths in that country are from the fully vaccinated. Roughly 60% of the UK is full vaccinated. For fksake Colin Powell was fully vaccinated and he just died of COVID related complications couple days ago.

Studies in Israel say that covid vaccines are only 39% effective at preventing infection (transmission). Israel is dealing with a huge COVID surge despite being one of the most heavily fully vaccinated countries in the world.

A Harvard study just published a couple weeks ago has shown that increases in new COVID-19 infections are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00808-7

translation: these vaccines are the best we got- but they still basically suck. covid isn't ever going away. these vaccines are not effective at preventing infection and therefore stopping transmission dead in it's tracks- all they can ever do is maybe slow down transmission and make symptoms less severe. there will continually new variants and there ain't shit we can do about it. 


BTW another study also showed that young boys aged 12 to 15, with no underlying medical conditions, were four to six times more likely to be diagnosed with vaccine-related myocarditis (enlarged heart) from the Pfizer vaccine than they were from being unvaccinated and ending up in the hospital with Covid. And btw- 86% of the Pfizer vaccine-related myocarditis in the boys aged 12-15 required hospitalization. 86%. You know how many COVID cases in children worldwide have required hospitalization? Less than 2%.

There are just a shit load of unknowns still. This disease is weird and the solution probably isn't just to vaccinate every single person in the world regardless of age. Children are virtually unaffected by this disease. Their risk of death or even hospitalization is virtually non-existent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 19, 2021, 09:49:20 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on October 19, 2021, 09:37:02 AM
data being released by UK gov't showing that over 70% of all COVID deaths in that country are from the fully vaccinated. Roughly 60% of the UK is full vaccinated. For fksake Colin Powell was fully vaccinated and he just died of COVID related complications couple days ago.


this is very misleading because the actual death count is way down from prevaccinated days

Colin Powell was 84 years old with a preexisting heart condition

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on October 19, 2021, 10:03:36 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 19, 2021, 09:49:20 AM
this is very misleading because the actual death count is way down from prevaccinated days

Colin Powell was 84 years old with a preexisting heart condition
Yeah- and it could also be that the pre-vaccinated days already burned through and killed off the most vulnerable who were going to die anyway. Remember- 50% of all COVID deaths pre-vaccine were grampy and grammy at the nursing home 75+ up with pre-existing conditions/co-morbidities like the now deceased war criminal Colin Powell.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 19, 2021, 10:11:29 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on October 19, 2021, 10:03:36 AM
Yeah- and it could also be that the pre-vaccinated days already burned through and killed off the most vulnerable who were going to die anyway. Remember- 50% of all COVID deaths pre-vaccine were grampy and grammy at the nursing home 75+ up with pre-existing conditions/co-morbidities like the now deceased war criminal Colin Powell.
nope all the old people were not killed off

The fact remains that data so far shows that the number of break through cases is aprox a half of one percent

and of those only one tenth of one percent are hospitalized

you are way over stepping when you say the vaccine is not effective at preventing catching covid
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 19, 2021, 10:13:18 AM
I have no problem with not vaccinating the very young as it may do more harm then good
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on October 19, 2021, 10:24:57 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 20, 2021, 08:28:37 AM
No new trends worldwide, UK MAY be on an upswing, oddly, while Spain is clearly dropping.  More data I don't understand.

With any luck Florida has peaked.  Hospitals around here are in OK shape.

Regarding daily Covid case rates remaining steadily high across the UK, an article from the Guardian last week delved into the British public’s dispiritedly decreasing alarm toward Covid’s continuing circulation through the national population.

“We’re in a phase where we still have large numbers of people dying from this disease,” said Linda Bauld, professor of public health at the University of Edinburgh. “But it has gone into the background. We’ve become used to something that has not gone away. I think there’s been a desensitisation to the mortality.”

“As a disease shifts from an initial pandemic phase to an endemic illness, the data curves outlining its spread become less precipitous. And psychologists say this steady stream of daily deaths – although the UK is now on an upwards trajectory – tends to feel less alarming than the rises we witnessed in the first year of the pandemic.”

"However, there is disagreement even among health professionals about what an acceptable “steady state” would be for Covid. “Some still support a zero Covid model, with an aim of having no cases, while others are accepting of the current situation, in which we have about 40,000 cases,” said Andrew Goddard, president of the Royal College of Physicians. “We have all accepted – doctors included – 10,000 deaths from flu each year so this tells us much about what we might accept with regard to Covid, although the impact on the most deprived parts of society and on certain ethnic minorities may reduce tolerance for such levels.”

"To some, the lack of public reaction to the ongoing death rate is bewildering. “It feels very surreal that we are just accepting the current infection rates. No one is making a fuss about it, but well over 100 people are dying every day due to Covid,” said Kit Yates, a senior lecturer in mathematics at the University of Bath."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/15/why-britons-are-tolerating-sky-high-covid-rates-and-why-this-may-not-last


(https://i.imgur.com/pl8e2bv.jpg)




Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 19, 2021, 10:29:46 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on October 19, 2021, 09:37:02 AM
data being released by UK gov't showing that over 70% of all COVID deaths in that country are from the fully vaccinated.
Yer gonna have to show your work on this one.  Link to credible source, please.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2021, 10:30:36 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 19, 2021, 06:26:55 AM
Interesting.  Vermont- A state with one of the highest vaccination rates, is now seeing a faster increase in cases than other states.  Turns out there is seasonality to this as this article points out.  At least that’s the new “spin“. 

Also, covid deaths in 2021 have  surpassed deaths in 2020.  When you think about when the vaccinations became available that’s extremely interesting.  I look forward to discovering what the new “spin“ will be on that. 
Ok here's the "spin":


1. Cases, as we've been saying for months since the vax has been out, are no longer anywhere near as meaningful of a statistic as they once were. Cases used to be a 3-week prediction into death rates. That has not borne out post-vax (at least for the vaccinated portion of the population). So while Delta is a bit of a monster when it comes to transmissibility, it kills the vaccinated at a MUCH lower rate than the unvaccinated. So we should be looking at hospitalizations/deaths, rather than cases.

2. Also not that surprising. Attached is the graph of daily deaths in the US. The holiday surge was massive, but its midpoint was AFTER January 1. Vaccines started being available for some people in Dec/Jan, then healthcare workers and the elderly, and most of the population didn't really have access in this country until somewhere in the April->June quarter. In 2020 we had social distancing, masks, people being careful, etc. Now with the vax we have basically stopped all of that in most places, which means that the vaxxed are fine going back to "normal" and the unvaxxed are dying in large numbers. Behavior is one component, vaccination is another, and right now we've got back to pre-pandemic behavior while some states are still <50% vaxxed. 



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2021, 10:33:20 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on October 19, 2021, 10:24:57 AM
Regarding daily Covid case rates remaining steadily high across the UK, an article from the Guardian last week delved into the British public’s dispiritedly decreasing alarm toward Covid’s continuing circulation through the national population.

“We’re in a phase where we still have large numbers of people dying from this disease,” said Linda Bauld, professor of public health at the University of Edinburgh. “But it has gone into the background. We’ve become used to something that has not gone away. I think there’s been a desensitisation to the mortality.”

“As a disease shifts from an initial pandemic phase to an endemic illness, the data curves outlining its spread become less precipitous. And psychologists say this steady stream of daily deaths – although the UK is now on an upwards trajectory – tends to feel less alarming than the rises we witnessed in the first year of the pandemic.”

"However, there is disagreement even among health professionals about what an acceptable “steady state” would be for Covid. “Some still support a zero Covid model, with an aim of having no cases, while others are accepting of the current situation, in which we have about 40,000 cases,” said Andrew Goddard, president of the Royal College of Physicians. “We have all accepted – doctors included – 10,000 deaths from flu each year so this tells us much about what we might accept with regard to Covid, although the impact on the most deprived parts of society and on certain ethnic minorities may reduce tolerance for such levels.”

"To some, the lack of public reaction to the ongoing death rate is bewildering. “It feels very surreal that we are just accepting the current infection rates. No one is making a fuss about it, but well over 100 people are dying every day due to Covid,” said Kit Yates, a senior lecturer in mathematics at the University of Bath."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/15/why-britons-are-tolerating-sky-high-covid-rates-and-why-this-may-not-last


(https://i.imgur.com/pl8e2bv.jpg)

That graph is misleading AF...

They're trying to scare people with that graph, whereas the attached shows a different story altogether. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 19, 2021, 10:39:15 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2021, 10:33:20 AM
That graph is misleading AF...

They're trying to scare people with that graph, whereas the attached shows a different story altogether.
my point exactly

not sure why anyone would want to paint a picture of gloom when there is some very encouraging signs
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 19, 2021, 10:40:56 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2021, 10:33:20 AM
That graph is misleading AF...

They're trying to scare people with that graph, whereas the attached shows a different story altogether.
Ah, okay, I get it. 

Now I could see why over 70% of deaths in the UK are among the vaccinated.  That's a terribly misleading statistic, because their population is already pretty well vaccinated.

The death rate versus cases is miniscule compared to the pre-vax numbers of this pandemic.  That's the correct statistic to be using and proves even more clearly how well the vax is working at preventing serious illness and death.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 19, 2021, 10:48:48 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2021, 10:30:36 AM
Ok here's the "spin":


1. Cases, as we've been saying for months since the vax has been out, are no longer anywhere near as meaningful of a statistic as they once were. Cases used to be a 3-week prediction into death rates. That has not borne out post-vax (at least for the vaccinated portion of the population). So while Delta is a bit of a monster when it comes to transmissibility, it kills the vaccinated at a MUCH lower rate than the unvaccinated. So we should be looking at hospitalizations/deaths, rather than cases.

2. Also not that surprising. Attached is the graph of daily deaths in the US. The holiday surge was massive, but its midpoint was AFTER January 1. Vaccines started being available for some people in Dec/Jan, then healthcare workers and the elderly, and most of the population didn't really have access in this country until somewhere in the April->June quarter. In 2020 we had social distancing, masks, people being careful, etc. Now with the vax we have basically stopped all of that in most places, which means that the vaxxed are fine going back to "normal" and the unvaxxed are dying in large numbers. Behavior is one component, vaccination is another, and right now we've got back to pre-pandemic behavior while some states are still <50% vaxxed.




Oh….. so it not someone’s fault who is an elected official???  I get it now.  Wow.  So different than what was POUNDED into our heads everyday for a year, and again recently when there were spikes in “ certain” states. 

Deaths are scientifically explained?  Not just in certain locations? US Deaths are not the fault of certain elected officials anymore like they were in 2020, even though they are higher now?

Well… so convenient. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 19, 2021, 10:51:22 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 19, 2021, 10:48:48 AM
Oh….. so it not someone’s fault who is an elected official???  I get it now.  Wow.  So different than what was POUNDED into our heads everyday for a year, and again recently when there were spikes in “ certain” states. 

Deaths are scientifically explained?  Not just in certain locations? US Deaths are not the fault of certain elected officials anymore like they were in 2020, even though they are higher now?

Well… so convenient. 
Stick to policy discussion please.  There are ways to state your point of view, without this kind of stuff.  And you're smart enough to know it.  Simply trying to bash "the other team" isn't welcome on this thread.  And you're smart enough to know that, too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 19, 2021, 11:11:47 AM
but, OU Sucks is always correct
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 19, 2021, 11:12:34 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 19, 2021, 11:11:47 AM
but, OU Sucks is always correct
amen, brutha
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 19, 2021, 11:14:25 AM
You mean OU even sucks on this thread?

Man thats a high magnitude of sucking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 19, 2021, 11:16:48 AM
ou always sucks, on this thread and all others, now and forevermore.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on October 19, 2021, 11:25:09 AM
OU sucking is as certain as the sun rising in the east. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 19, 2021, 11:49:18 AM
Quote from: utee94 on October 19, 2021, 10:51:22 AM
Stick to policy discussion please.  There are ways to state your point of view, without this kind of stuff.  And you're smart enough to know it.  Simply trying to bash "the other team" isn't welcome on this thread.  And you're smart enough to know that, too.
So media messaging around the data is off base- as this has nothing to do with policy?  

if you read me as trying to bash the other team- that is complete misread.  in this regard I don’t have a team 

It’s more- let’s be really transparent about the data and what is driving it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 19, 2021, 12:16:21 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 19, 2021, 11:49:18 AM
It’s more- let’s be really transparent about the data and what is driving it.
most of us would like this, but it's obviously not going to happen.
Too many agendas

this was the case before the pandemic and unfortunately will be the case going forward as far as I can tell 
in other words, being transparent regarding data doesn't happen with any types of data, it's not just COVID or vaccines or pandemics

it's that all data is manipulated to support agendas
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 19, 2021, 12:21:17 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 19, 2021, 11:49:18 AM
So media messaging around the data is off base- as this has nothing to do with policy? 

if you read me as trying to bash the other team- that is complete misread.  in this regard I don’t have a team

It’s more- let’s be really transparent about the data and what is driving it.

We've been really clear here-- if you're referring to an agenda being driven by a specific entity, regardless of whether it's media or a politician or a political group, then it's off-limits here.

This isn't new, this isn't different.  If you believe an entity is driving an agenda, then that's YOUR opinion, and it can't be anything other than a political opinion, and it doesn't belong here.  There are countless threads and forums for you to talk about that.  This isn't one of them.

If you either like a specific policy, or dislike a specific policy, then feel free to bring it up, and support your opinion.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 19, 2021, 12:25:24 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 19, 2021, 12:16:21 PM
most of us would like this, but it's obviously not going to happen.
Too many agendas

this was the case before the pandemic and unfortunately will be the case going forward as far as I can tell
in other words, being transparent regarding data doesn't happen with any types of data, it's not just COVID or vaccines or pandemics

it's that all data is manipulated to support agendas
This can be true, but it's not a truism.

For example, we've seen a graph of COVID cases in the UK, and then we've seen a graph of corresponding COVID deaths in the UK, over the same time period.  The data clearly show that during this most recent peak, the deaths are significantly lower as a percentage of total cases, than they were in the previous spikes.

There's no agenda in noting that.  It's simple math.

With that established, we should all be able to discuss the various potential reasons for that.  And we should be able to do it without driving any agenda or cheering for one "team" over another.  I mean, this is something that grown-ass adults should be completely capable of doing.  As far as I know, nobody on this site is 12 years old. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2021, 12:39:08 PM
You know what I'd like? 

I'd like someone to explain these four graphs for me and tell me why they're so ridiculously different...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 19, 2021, 12:42:31 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2021, 12:39:08 PM
You know what I'd like?

I'd like someone to explain these four graphs for me and tell me why they're so ridiculously different...
where did you get them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 19, 2021, 12:42:56 PM
because data can be manipulated

deaths can obviously be counted differently to suit your agenda
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2021, 12:48:04 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 19, 2021, 12:42:31 PM
where did you get them
Worldometers.

Quote from: FearlessF on October 19, 2021, 12:42:56 PM
because data can be manipulated

deaths can obviously be counted differently to suit your agenda
So your explanation is that you don't have to explain anything about data because you don't trust the validity of any data?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 19, 2021, 12:53:30 PM
so these graphs show the world and not just the US?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 19, 2021, 01:07:30 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2021, 12:48:04 PM
So your explanation is that you don't have to explain anything about data because you don't trust the validity of any data?
I'm saying those graphs don't explain the data in detail and the raw numbers presented can be used to promote an agenda
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 19, 2021, 01:12:59 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 19, 2021, 01:07:30 PM
I'm saying those graphs don't explain the data in detail and the raw numbers presented can be used to promote an agenda
Of course raw numbers CAN be used to promote an agenda.

My expectation from THIS forum, is intelligent discussion and debate where necessary, rather than blind identity politics.

Everyone here is smart enough to do that.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2021, 01:33:40 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 19, 2021, 12:53:30 PM
so these graphs show the world and not just the US?
Those graphs show death numbers for four US states. I'm wondering why they look so different. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 19, 2021, 01:42:06 PM
https://youtu.be/znI046F4FKg
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2021, 01:44:06 PM
Those graphs contribute heavily to the below:

(https://i.imgur.com/2ynWOYk.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 19, 2021, 01:50:57 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2021, 01:33:40 PM
Those graphs show death numbers for four US states. I'm wondering why they look so different.
why should they not be different

different climate
different government making decisions
outside factors like how close to the Mexican boarder
denseness of the population
population of state
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 19, 2021, 02:22:52 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 19, 2021, 10:48:48 AM
Oh….. so it not someone’s fault who is an elected official???  I get it now.  Wow.  So different than what was POUNDED into our heads everyday for a year, and again recently when there were spikes in “ certain” states. 

Deaths are scientifically explained?  Not just in certain locations? US Deaths are not the fault of certain elected officials anymore like they were in 2020, even though they are higher now?

Well… so convenient. 
I mean, the original point was a statistic. There are interesting reasons for said statistic. Simple, explainable ones. 

Now, if we want to talk about having two very bad months, that's interesting. I'm guessing some people will read it one way, some another, and their read on what qualifies as "media" will inform a read on it. 

But thankfully, we try to go deeper here. The world provides us chances to be aggrieved on an hourly basis, should we so choose. Often here, we choose not to (but sometimes we do), and I'm always pleased when we don't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2021, 03:10:45 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 19, 2021, 01:50:57 PM
why should they not be different

different climate
different government making decisions
outside factors like how close to the Mexican boarder
denseness of the population
population of state
Well, I'm not saying they shouldn't be different. 

I'll make it simpler. You can largely remove population of state and density of the population, as I deliberately chose the four most populous states in the US. Those states all have large metropolitan areas and large land mass that is mostly rural. Yet their graphs are very different from one another.

I also deliberately chose the four most populous states because there is a certain level of stability in large numbers. It should create a "smoothing effect" that would make the data much more noisy for the four least populous states.

Two of the states border Mexico, and their graphs are very different from each other. 

Three of the states have temperate climates, and those three have very different graphs from each other. 

The four states have very different government attitudes and policies to COVID. They also have very different political leanings and attitudes that are preexisting before government policy (and may make certain policies more or less viable). 

BTW I'm not saying some of these graphs are good and others are bad. I can point to things about the policies in all four states that I disagreed with, were handled poorly, etc. 

I'm just asking for someone to explain what caused the shapes in various locales. Maybe it's government. Maybe it's vaccination rates. Maybe it's demographics. Maybe it's just personal attitudes about risk tolerance and compliance with government policies. 

I don't know. That's why I'm asking. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2021, 03:19:11 PM
I can speak for Florida. 

The latest spike in the deaths were old people who would not take the vaccine. Old people tend to have other health issues, and this was it for them.

When it started to get really hot out, these people hung out inside with others, outside of their household, pretending that there was no pandemic.

I bet their families wish they had gotten the Vax. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2021, 03:41:06 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2021, 03:19:11 PM
I can speak for Florida.

The latest spike in the deaths were old people who would not take the vaccine. Old people tend to have other health issues, and this was it for them.

When it started to get really hot out, these people hung out inside with others, outside of their household, pretending that there was no pandemic.

I bet their families wish they had gotten the Vax.
Interesting... I've attached what CA reports for vaccination rates by age.

I don't know how our 74.5% full vaccination rate (+7.4% partial) compares to Florida for the 65+ age group. 

I will say that 74.5% doesn't seem like a very high number to me. 

Looking at this it suggests Florida has a much higher vaccination rate: http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/covid19-data/covid19_data_latest.pdf

65+ is currently at 89% in Florida, significantly higher than California.

Florida does have more 65+ as a percentage of population than California does. So that could affect things.

Florida is about 4.6M out of 19.1M, or 24% of the population. That should leave about 500K unvaccinated elderly Floridians.

California has about 6.4M out of 40M, or 16% of the population. But California--and we'll add all first dose and fully vaccinated together for 81.9% rate, should have a population of about 1.15M unvaccinated elderly. 

Yet with more than double the population of unvaccinated elderly residents, Florida was peaking at 300-400 deaths/day during Delta while California was seeing a maximum of ~200 a day. 

Not even looking at elderly, California has double the population of Florida but a little over half the number of deaths per day. If we SWAG it and say that the elderly drive those death rates and [incorrectly] assume all deaths are 65+, California has MORE than double the unvaccinated population but is somewhere around 1/2 to 2/3 the peak daily death rate as Florida. 

So I have to think it's more complicated than JUST reticence of some elderly Floridians to get the jab, because we have more elderly Californians AND a higher percentage of them aren't vaccinated than Florida, but a lower death rate. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 19, 2021, 03:46:15 PM
Florida is the only non-shithole so people are just dying to get in?


,
,
,


(I'm sorry, that was bad.  I attempt humor to mask the pain)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2021, 03:53:24 PM
I could make the argument that the Floridian elderly are less healthy than the Californian elderly. 

Because we all know that Florida is where old New Yorkers go to die retire, and Arizona is where old Californians go to die retire.

Of course, Arizona's Delta surge was a lot smaller on a per-capita basis than Florida. So I don't know what to make of that. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2021, 04:00:38 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2021, 03:41:06 PM
Interesting... I've attached what CA reports for vaccination rates by age.


Here is the most recent death data for FL:


(https://i.imgur.com/kXPSKXV.png)
And here is that weekly Vax data. Notice the timeframe of the most recent spike in Vax rates.

(https://i.imgur.com/oicxcfG.png)


Kinda matches the recent spike in cases and deaths, eh?


(https://i.imgur.com/d99fNME.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2021, 04:29:37 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2021, 04:00:38 PM
Here is the most recent death data for FL:


(https://i.imgur.com/kXPSKXV.png)
And here is that weekly Vax data. Notice the timeframe of the most recent spike in Vax rates.

(https://i.imgur.com/oicxcfG.png)


Kinda matches the recent spike in cases and deaths, eh?


(https://i.imgur.com/d99fNME.png)
I think you're reading that in reverse, Badge. The in the second graphic the bar graph is cumulative vaccinations, and the line is weekly cases. 

I don't see a "spike" in vax rates anywhere... It grew quickly once available and then leveled off.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2021, 04:45:29 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2021, 04:29:37 PM
I think you're reading that in reverse, Badge. The in the second graphic the bar graph is cumulative vaccinations, and the line is weekly cases.

I don't see a "spike" in vax rates anywhere... It grew quickly once available and then leveled off. 
You are correct. Got cross-eyed. Anyway, Vax rates are back up here - a lot of them boosters.


(https://i.imgur.com/wu3UzTR.png)
Vax rates much higher than case rates. Between recovered cases and vax status, I think things are in good shape here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2021, 04:56:25 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2021, 04:45:29 PM
You are correct. Got cross-eyed. Anyway, Vax rates are back up here - a lot of them boosters.


(https://i.imgur.com/wu3UzTR.png)
Vax rates much higher than case rates. Between recovered cases and vax status, I think things are in good shape here.
Yeah, I think the vax rates are pretty exemplary. I looked up FL vax rates earlier today in relation to the rest of the US and Florida is 21st in the US, which isn't shabby. California is 16th and the statewide vax rate is a little under 2% higher. 

Which is why I don't understand how their death rate for the Delta surge is so massive. 

Texas is at 29th nationally and is 6.4% lower statewide vax rate than Florida, and their daily deaths peaked at similar numbers to Florida despite having about 50% higher population. 

Why are so many dying in Florida compared to CA or TX despite having a very respectable vaccine rate, and as you show, a VERY respectable vaccine rate amongst the elderly?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2021, 05:01:28 PM
I think you have to consider three factors.

Breakthrough cases that result in death, which is rare.

Then you must take into account that vaccination rates among the elderly go up for two events:

One is getting the vax, and two is death.

So, of course the vax rate is going to rise, when the un-vaxed die.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 19, 2021, 05:15:31 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2021, 04:56:25 PM
Yeah, I think the vax rates are pretty exemplary. I looked up FL vax rates earlier today in relation to the rest of the US and Florida is 21st in the US, which isn't shabby. California is 16th and the statewide vax rate is a little under 2% higher.

Which is why I don't understand how their death rate for the Delta surge is so massive.

Texas is at 29th nationally and is 6.4% lower statewide vax rate than Florida, and their daily deaths peaked at similar numbers to Florida despite having about 50% higher population.

Why are so many dying in Florida compared to CA or TX despite having a very respectable vaccine rate, and as you show, a VERY respectable vaccine rate amongst the elderly?
I feel like I already answered  this question above...

Or, maybe they're miscounting COVID deaths again.  Gotta watch them wiley number-crunchers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2021, 05:37:51 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2021, 05:01:28 PM
I think you have to consider three factors.

Breakthrough cases that result in death, which is rare.

Then you must take into account that vaccination rates among the elderly go up for two events:

One is getting the vax, and two is death.

So, of course the vax rate is going to rise, when the un-vaxed die.
Florida has had 58K deaths. They currently have around 4.58M residents of age 65+. 

They have an 89% vax rate in that group or ~4.07M.

Even if you assumed that every death in ALL of Florida was an unvaxxed elderly person, then you add 58K to the "current population" as your baseline, increasing from 4.58M to 4.64M. 4.07 / 4.64 would drop your vax rate by only 1.3%, to 87.7%. 

The rise in the vax rate would be too small to explain it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 19, 2021, 06:57:31 PM
I think people in Florida are pretty much just going about their daily lives at this point.

Same thing in Texas.  I spent last weekend at the State Fair for the TX-OU game.  Probably 250,000 people in and around the Cotton Bowl that day.  Zero distancing and not one mask in sight. 

This weekend I'll be spending Fri-Sun at the Circuit of the Americas with 300,000 of my closest friends.  I don't expect to see any distancing or masks there, either.

The vaxed have made their choices, the unvaxed have made their choices, and now the chips will fall where they may.

Almost two years into this, that's exactly what should be happening. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2021, 07:24:40 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 19, 2021, 06:57:31 PM
I think people in Florida are pretty much just going about their daily lives at this point.

Same thing in Texas.  I spent last weekend at the State Fair for the TX-OU game.  Probably 250,000 people in and around the Cotton Bowl that day.  Zero distancing and not one mask in sight. 

This weekend I'll be spending Fri-Sun at the Circuit of the Americas with 300,000 of my closest friends.  I don't expect to see any distancing or masks there, either.

The vaxed have made their choices, the unvaxed have made their choices, and now the chips will fall where they may.

Almost two years into this, that's exactly what should be happening. 
I agree, but I also think it's important to look at the tradeoffs that might be happening. 

Which comes back to messaging. Nobody is going to tell the truth. 

The truth is that we have a vaccine that dramatically reduces the death toll of this virus. Some people want to get it. Some people don't. 

But in certain states [such as certain counties in the state where I live] the decision is to restrict as much as possible to reduce the death toll. In other states the decision is to move on and let the people who have chosen not to protect themselves live with the consequences of that decision. 

Nobody wants to go on record and tell people who aren't vaxxed "You're not our problem any more... If you die, you die." Politicians in some states are doing this, but they're not saying it.

Nobody wants to go on record saying "The problem is that people aren't choosing to get the vaccination, but I believe my responsibility is to reduce deaths from the virus at all cost, so everyone else gets punished for those who aren't protecting themselves." Politicians in some states are doing this, but they're not saying it. 

I realize I just moved to a job in marketing, but is it too hard to ask for some f$^#@&g HONESTY?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 19, 2021, 07:56:28 PM
Former Wazzou HC Rolovich's focus on "faith, trust, and belief"
.
Yeah, anything but logic and data, AMIRIGHT??!?  :57:  What a f-ing lunatic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 19, 2021, 07:57:35 PM
More people are dying in FL because everyone living outside the cities and interior of the coasts is a dipshit and the governor is a dipshit.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2021, 08:00:56 PM
And... there we go.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 19, 2021, 09:07:39 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 19, 2021, 08:00:56 PM
And... there we go.
I appreciate all of the tables and charts and pussyfooting around to TRY to help the blind see, but sometimes it just takes plain words.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 19, 2021, 09:25:46 PM
again, what's the definition of vaxed?  what's the definition of covid death? 

different hospitals, counties and especially states report these things differently

perhaps it's pretty much apples to apples and there's just no correlation with policy or climate or reporting practices

perhaps it's just the virus doing what it wants 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 19, 2021, 09:48:07 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 19, 2021, 07:57:35 PM
More people are dying in FL because everyone living outside the cities and interior of the coasts is a dipshit and the governor is a dipshit. 
They've made their choices.  I've made mine.  You've made yours.

Next month we're a KNOWN two years into this thing.  Arguably we're several months past being two years into this thing.

That doesn't really matter.  What does, is that we have a vaccine that can save lives.  If people don't want it, that's their choice to make.

We're past the point of no return.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 19, 2021, 10:21:18 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 19, 2021, 07:57:35 PM
More people are dying in FL because everyone living outside the cities and interior of the coasts is a dipshit and the governor is a dipshit. 
Speaking of dipshits…. 

clueless.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on October 19, 2021, 10:55:59 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 19, 2021, 10:21:18 PM
Speaking of dipshits….

clueless. 
I have now had three clients die within this week of this dastardly disease.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 19, 2021, 11:52:19 PM
And HB called my attention to this and I'll agree-- calling out a particular governor as being a dipshit isn't necessarily political, but it's a pretty thinly veiled jab that, since we already know your politics, is a fairly obvious "my team vs. your team" hot take.

Which is childish and everyone around here should be better than that.

So I'll reiterate-- if you have an opinion on a specific policy, please feel free to state it, and defend it.

Taking potshots at politicians without specifying the specific action or policy, is just more bullshit identity politics, which is useless and not appropriate for this thread.

Next ones will get deleted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on October 20, 2021, 12:16:21 AM
This latest wave in Iowa seems to have come north from Arkansas, Missouri, now Iowa, (especially rampant the past 2-weeks here in NE Iowa and SW Wisconsin), and I have read it is accelerating into Minnesota, now.
Our MRNA vaccines are particularly efficacious and safe. I believe J & J is too, but probably could be combined with a different second shot. I am 5-months from being eligible for a booster. No worries, I had COVID-19 and was asymptomatic, but I worry about my wife and daughter, who are vaccinated, but have not had COVID. My daughter is a healthcare worker.
I have wondered if a booster J & J would be effective with an MRNA vaccine but have not seen anything on this topic. If you have, please provide a citation.
COVID-19 hits too close to home for me. I have personally known 8 people who died from COVID-19, one of whom was a relative.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 20, 2021, 12:35:07 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 19, 2021, 09:07:39 PM
I appreciate all of the tables and charts and pussyfooting around to TRY to help the blind see, but sometimes it just takes plain words.
And plain words were not what you provided. 

Nor was it reasoned analysis.

It was vitriol. Nothing more.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 20, 2021, 12:48:05 AM
Quote from: utee94 on October 19, 2021, 11:52:19 PM
And HB called my attention to this and I'll agree-- calling out a particular governor as being a dipshit isn't necessarily political, but it's a pretty thinly veiled jab that, since we already know your politics, is a fairly obvious "my team vs. your team" hot take.

Which is childish and everyone around here should be better than that.

Should be but a certain dweeb goes in psycho circles with distressing frequency
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 20, 2021, 07:53:23 AM
"if you have an opinion on a specific policy, please feel free to state it, and defend it.

Taking potshots at politicians without specifying the specific action or policy, is just more bullshit identity politics, which is useless and not appropriate for this thread."


Perhaps repetition will be enlightening?  Or not.  This isn't the thread for political "jabs".
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 20, 2021, 08:00:45 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 20, 2021, 01:35:24 AM
FL's governor DUE TO POLITICS decided earlier than others to let people die 
What the hell are you talking about? It wasn't about POLITICS.

It was what the PEOPLE wanted. You know, the ones who he is supposed to represent? And now we have a vax. He's not going to administer shots by himself, nor will he mandate them. It's up to the people. It's not his choice to have people die. It's his choice to let his people have a choice.

Is this really hard to understand? By the people, for the people?

Did he send people to nursing homes to die? No.

Was he caught dining out while nobody else could?

Did he send his family from Illinois to Florida during Illinois' lockdown?

People are moving here (legally and willingly) in droves.

But yeah. Florida sucks. Gators too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 20, 2021, 08:17:38 AM
OAM's political bullshit post was, quite predictably, deleted.

badger's response remains because he addressed actual specific policies/actions/issues in a reasonable way.

We might or might not agree with what badger said, but it wasn't childish and deliberately incendiary.  It allows for and even invites debate.

See the difference?

Most do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 20, 2021, 08:31:41 AM
The good news is this "wave" appears to be on the downside, again, after two months.  I have not heard of a new variant causing issues globally.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 20, 2021, 08:40:30 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 20, 2021, 08:31:41 AM
The good news is this "wave" appears to be on the downside, again, after two months.  I have not heard of a new variant causing issues globally.
Sounds like there is a new variant in the UK. I've not gotten into it.


Covid-19: New mutation of Delta variant under close watch in UK - BBC News (https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58965650)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 20, 2021, 08:45:59 AM
Well that's fun and exciting news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 20, 2021, 08:57:35 AM
Not really.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on October 20, 2021, 09:17:25 AM
Happy happy joy joy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 20, 2021, 09:40:12 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 20, 2021, 08:00:45 AM
What the hell are you talking about? It wasn't about POLITICS.

It was what the PEOPLE wanted. You know, the ones who he is supposed to represent? And now we have a vax. He's not going to administer shots by himself, nor will he mandate them. It's up to the people. It's not his choice to have people die. It's his choice to let his people have a choice.

This is what the red, white, and blue undies people get wrong here:  the choice you're referring to isn't about yourself, but of the people around you.  A person not wearing a mask is putting those around them more at risk than they're putting himself at risk.  
DeSantis blames Biden and immigrants while ignoring his own policies.  The numbers are what they are, and no explanation - whether measured or "psycho" like mine will change the minds of anyone playing for the red team.  

THAT is the political problem here, not my posts.  It's the public message, influence, and backwards policies under the guise of freedom that is doing damage.  And yes, killing lives.  

I guess suicide is legal, but does it have to be promoted?!?  
Oh, I get to keep my store open if 3 random people in my city die?  FINE BY ME.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 20, 2021, 09:52:01 AM
From what I am seeing, the COVID surges happen, and then abate, pretty much independent of steps taken, or not, by political leaders.  The vaccine is obviously helpful.

We're seeing stadia packed with unmasked spectators while COVID declines.  If there was to be a superspreading event, that would be one clear example.

It's not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on October 20, 2021, 09:52:34 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 19, 2021, 07:57:35 PM
More people are dying in FL because everyone living outside the cities and interior of the coasts is a dipshit and the governor is a dipshit. 
Yeah, great point- except for the fact that the majority of the population in Florida live in like 3 areas. You've got South Florida, Greater Orlando, and the Tampa Bay area. The Top 5 counties with the most COVID death totals in Florida? In order 1-5; Miami-Dade (SoFL), Broward (SoFL), Palm Beach (SoFL), Hillsborough (Tampa), and Orange (Orlando). Those 5 counties have had close to 24,000 COVID deaths. The entire state has had 58,000 COVID deaths. There are 62 other counties in Florida. 

Florida coronavirus cases have declined 88% over the past 6 weeks whereas other states are starting to see a surges now as the weather turns.

COVID has killed 728k people in the US- there are 331 million citizens in this country and another 45 to 50 million people here legally on travel/business visas or even here illegally at any given time. Take the smaller number of 45 million and add it to 331 million. That's 376 million people. Divide that by the number of deaths. What do you get? A disease that is killing .0193% of the population. Literally 99.98+% of the population is not dying- but OH MY GOD THE HORROR! LET'S SHUT EVERYTHING DOWN AND STOP THE WHOLE ENTIRE WORLD AND LET CIVILIZATION CRUMBLE AROUND US BC IT'S JUST TOO DANGEROUS!!!!! WHAT WILL WE EVER DO! PLEASE TAKE CARE OF US AND TELL US WHAT TO DO DADDY GOVERNMENT!!!! IT'S TOOOOO SCARY OUT HERE!!!!

Oh yeah- by the way of the 728k deaths- literally half of those deaths were nursing home deaths- ie people old as f*#k who are on deaths doorstep already just waiting to die. Grammy and grampy have to die sometime- no one lives forever. There's no such thing as utopia where everyone lives forever you driveling pussy. Not to mention 94% of COVID deaths had MULTIPLE COMORBIDITIES such as heart disease, obesity, diabetes. Virtually zero deaths have been children. Virtually almost zero deaths have been young healthy adults. 

You really need to get a new shtick.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 20, 2021, 09:56:24 AM
Some folks will inevitably blame problems on politicians on ONE political persuasion or the other.  It's obvious partisanship, and has no purpose here, where we COULD discuss specific actions or inactions that have contributed to the spread.

I simply have not seen many of either type that made the spread worse, or better, the nursing home exception earlier perhaps to be noted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 20, 2021, 10:11:18 AM
The vaccine is available.  Those who want it, have gotten it.  Those who don't want it, have not.  They've made their choice and taken their lives in their own hands.  

The SCIENCE tells us that wearing masks provides no incremental benefit of statistical significance, above and beyond being vaccinated.  Mathematically, masking up vaccinated individuals provides no increased benefit, retains no utility, and serves no purpose.

We need to stop talking about masks at all, and focus entirely on encouraging the unvaxed to get vaxed. 

*Note, in all of the above, I am excluding children that are not yet of age to receive the vaccine.  That's why I'm actually okay with local mask mandates for schools grades K-8.  My kids are both vaccinated but many at their school are not yet old enough, so they all wear the masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 20, 2021, 10:13:40 AM
I'm OK with masking in crowded indoor conditions.  I think it provides a very small benefit which gets magnified by the exponents.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 20, 2021, 10:13:58 AM
MDot-- Mentioning specific political parties and politicians by name and running them down for being from that political party is THE most surefire way to get deleted.

Do better.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 20, 2021, 10:14:29 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 20, 2021, 10:13:40 AM
I'm OK with masking in crowded indoor conditions.  I think it provides a very small benefit which gets magnified by the exponents.


It does for the UNvaccinated, yes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on October 20, 2021, 10:19:30 AM
Quote from: utee94 on October 20, 2021, 10:13:58 AM
MDot-- Mentioning specific political parties and politicians by name and running them down for being from that political party is THE most surefire way to get deleted.

Do better. 
Never ran him down for being from a political party. Just mentioned his name and party- and ran him down for what he actually, you know did. 

And oh yeah by the way he also fudged COVID numbers, got caught and tried covering it up. And oh yeah he tried covering up his sexual harassment- got caught- had to re-sign in disgrace. 

Sounds like a swell guy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 20, 2021, 10:21:56 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on October 20, 2021, 10:19:30 AM
Never ran him down for being from a political party. Just mentioned his name and party- and ran him down for what he actually, you know did.

And oh yeah by the way he also fudged COVID numbers, got caught and tried covering it up. And oh yeah he tried covering up his sexual harassment- got caught- had to re-sign in disgrace.

Sounds like a swell guy.
I don't find many politicians to be anything other than scummy slimebags.  What else is new?  Film at 11.

Feel free to discuss the policies and actions, and your opinion of said policies and actions.  And then support your opinion.

You sorta got there with the above, although the sexual harassment is neither here nor there.  This thread is NOT about judging the character of various political figures.  And you should know better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on October 20, 2021, 10:22:49 AM
One unintended benefit of everyone wearing masks and keeping their distance last winter is that influenza got trounced.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 20, 2021, 10:24:12 AM
Ideally, one's posts should NOT tell which side of the aisle you are on politically.

If you constantly blame Ds or Rs, that won't be the case.

Discuss COVID here, devoid of politics.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 20, 2021, 10:24:57 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on October 20, 2021, 10:22:49 AM
One unintended benefit of everyone wearing masks and keeping their distance last winter is that influenza got trounced.
I think it's a combination of things, including much less travel coming from Asia, and a somewhat higher vax rate.  Small changes in that figure can lead to a large drop in R naught.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 20, 2021, 10:31:58 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 20, 2021, 10:24:57 AM
I think it's a combination of things, including much less travel coming from Asia, and a somewhat higher vax rate.  Small changes in that figure can lead to a large drop in R naught.
Yep.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 20, 2021, 11:03:39 AM
Deleted again, MDOT.

We all know what happened in NY.

Stop talking about politicians.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 20, 2021, 11:08:27 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 20, 2021, 09:40:12 AM
THAT is the political problem here, not my posts.  It's the public message, influence, and backwards policies under the guise of freedom that is doing damage.  And yes, killing lives. 

I guess suicide is legal, but does it have to be promoted?!? 
Oh, I get to keep my store open if 3 random people in my city die?  FINE BY ME.
Except that the policies are not all that different... 

People have this perception that Florida is some crazy free-for-all Mad Max scenario where it's everyone for themselves dodging COVID at every turn, while California is on perpetual lockdown and all businesses are shuttered for the duration, and nobody leaves their house without a haz-mat suit.

But neither one is remotely true. I can tell you on the ground here in California that everyone is back to normal. Masks (at least in Orange County) are sparse, well under 50% in most stores. Businesses have been open for months and months. We really only had one real lockdown, when this first started--our governor attempted a second lockdown late in 2020 and everyone just stayed open in defiance. And on a personal note, people were seeing friends and family, unmasked, in their homes, pretty much the whole time.

Yet people think California and Florida are tremendously different, because the governors have different letters after their names denoting a political party. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 20, 2021, 11:13:13 AM
it's not just that Florida and Cali are very similar, the US of A, Russia, Japan, China, and other parts of the world are all dealing with this virus with no seemingly proven "right" way to save people's lives. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 20, 2021, 11:14:07 AM
MOSCOW (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday ordered the country’s workers to stay off work for a week starting later this month amid rising coronavirus infection and death numbers, and he strongly urged reluctant citizens to get vaccinated.

The government task force on Wednesday reported 1,028 coronavirus deaths over the past 24 hours, the highest number since the start of the pandemic. That brought Russia’s total death toll to 226,353 which is by far the highest in Europe.


https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-russia-europe-vladimir-putin-bcb1c48ff55f0b2276d3696baba2084c (https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-russia-europe-vladimir-putin-bcb1c48ff55f0b2276d3696baba2084c)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 20, 2021, 11:15:12 AM
Vax.  

Vax Vax VAX VAX VAX.


That is the ONLY thing we should be talking about at this point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 20, 2021, 11:16:48 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 20, 2021, 11:13:13 AM
it's not just that Florida and Cali are very similar, the US of A, Russia, Japan, China, and other parts of the world are all dealing with this virus with no seemingly proven "right" way to save people's lives.
Except, for, ya know, getting the damn jab. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 20, 2021, 11:18:34 AM
I think so, but even the jab hasn't seemed to solve the problem entirely.  Even those that have taken the jab.

It's just a very weird evil virus that seems to do as it wishes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 20, 2021, 11:20:50 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 20, 2021, 11:18:34 AM
I think so, but even the jab hasn't seemed to solve the problem entirely.  Even those that have taken the jab.

It's just a very weird evil virus that seems to do as it wishes.
The jab decreases the chances of severe illness and hospitalization to such a dramatically low percentage that it would no longer be considered a public health crisis.

That's more than enough.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 20, 2021, 11:23:12 AM
Yeah, I just traveled to Colorado, and the policies there are the same as here.  No difference, at all, I was asked about it a few times.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 20, 2021, 11:23:56 AM
I agree, but some don't.

Wish we had credible data and could use it for a clear message
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 20, 2021, 11:30:42 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 20, 2021, 11:23:56 AM
I agree, but some don't.

Wish we had credible data and could use it for a clear message

We have credible data.

We do not have a clear message.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 20, 2021, 11:32:12 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 20, 2021, 11:23:56 AM
I agree, but some don't.

Wish we had credible data and could use it for a clear message
The data on this one is clear and credible. It's not even close.

Here's just one example, quoted because I found it once before and know that VA tracks this: https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-cases-by-vaccination-status/

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 20, 2021, 11:33:13 AM
Quote from: utee94 on October 20, 2021, 11:30:42 AM
We have credible data.

We do not have a clear message.
We do have a clear message. Some people are just sticking their fingers in their ears and yelling "NANANANANANANANANA" because they don't want to hear it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 20, 2021, 11:35:10 AM
I read one post on FB that "millions have died because of the vaccine".  I don't know how to counter that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 20, 2021, 11:43:12 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 20, 2021, 11:35:10 AM
I read one post on FB that "millions have died because of the vaccine".  I don't know how to counter that.
Don't even try. Delete your FB account. You'll be happier for it. :72:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 20, 2021, 11:44:46 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 20, 2021, 11:08:27 AM
Except that the policies are not all that different...

People have this perception that Florida is some crazy free-for-all Mad Max scenario where it's everyone for themselves dodging COVID at every turn, while California is on perpetual lockdown and all businesses are shuttered for the duration, and nobody leaves their house without a haz-mat suit.

But neither one is remotely true. I can tell you on the ground here in California that everyone is back to normal. Masks (at least in Orange County) are sparse, well under 50% in most stores. Businesses have been open for months and months. We really only had one real lockdown, when this first started--our governor attempted a second lockdown late in 2020 and everyone just stayed open in defiance. And on a personal note, people were seeing friends and family, unmasked, in their homes, pretty much the whole time.

Yet people think California and Florida are tremendously different, because the governors have different letters after their names denoting a political party.
Amen. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 20, 2021, 11:47:21 AM
Quote from: utee94 on October 20, 2021, 11:30:42 AM
We have credible data.

We do not have a clear message.


Double Amen.  

I would strongly encourage permanent banning of posters who turn this thread( or any other non political thread) into politics. it is ruining this place.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 20, 2021, 12:38:15 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 20, 2021, 11:33:13 AM
We do have a clear message. Some people are just sticking their fingers in their ears and yelling "NANANANANANANANANA" because they don't want to hear it.
I think we have a reasonably clear message on the vaccine.

But we don't have a clear public health message to the general public.  Too much talk about masking and distancing and business closures versus being wide open.  The kind of stupid argumentative shit we see on this thread every day.

One clear message, is what we need.

And that message is, "Get the vax."

No more talk about masking, no more talk about distancing, no more talk about mandates or governor's executive orders or laws.  That is all just muddying the waters more, and allowing the "NANANANANA" people the opportunity to deflect, divert, and obfuscate.

There is only one message that should be spoken by any health official, public official, or politician:

Get vaccinated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 20, 2021, 12:41:44 PM
Get vaccinated.

or stay home.

They don't want to see you in the hospital
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 20, 2021, 12:55:18 PM
I wonder if a more concerted single message on thhe vax would do much, I think we're down to the hard core for the most part.

I'd guess any attempt to present statistics on how safe it is would be seen as a government/FDA plot to enrich Pfizer et al.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 20, 2021, 12:55:25 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 20, 2021, 12:38:15 PM
One clear message, is what we need.

And that message is, "Get the vax."

No more talk about masking, no more talk about distancing, no more talk about mandates or governor's executive orders or laws.  That is all just muddying the waters more, and allowing the "NANANANANA" people the opportunity to deflect, divert, and obfuscate.

There is only one message that should be spoken by any health official, public official, or politician:

Get vaccinated.
Yeah, and when the "NANANANANA" people didn't get vaccinated, then what's the message? 

It SHOULD be IMHO, "well if you won't get the shot, you're on your own; if you die, you die". 

But that's seen as cruel and heartless and politicians don't like to be portrayed that way. So we get a debate over how long to keep masking and distancing and making policies to protect the stubborn and the stupid. 

The reason we have all these other messages is BECAUSE people didn't get the vax, and it appears they won't get the vax. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 20, 2021, 01:13:00 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 20, 2021, 12:55:25 PM
Yeah, and when the "NANANANANA" people didn't get vaccinated, then what's the message?

It SHOULD be IMHO, "well if you won't get the shot, you're on your own; if you die, you die".

But that's seen as cruel and heartless and politicians don't like to be portrayed that way. So we get a debate over how long to keep masking and distancing and making policies to protect the stubborn and the stupid.

The reason we have all these other messages is BECAUSE people didn't get the vax, and it appears they won't get the vax.
Yeah, beyond the vax, there can be no message.  It's over.

Effectively, we're already there in a lot of places. Personally, I'm not wearing a mask anywhere, unless the owners of an establishment have a sign posted that it's required.  And, nobody posts such a sign, not down here.

The virus will do what it does.  Hopefully we don't overwhelm the hospital system.  But the public health concern is effectively over at this point.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 20, 2021, 01:17:30 PM
We have a mask mandate in our building, I sort of usually wear one in the lobby or on an elevator with someone else.

Kroger asks for one.  Restaurants don't seem to care with few exceptions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 20, 2021, 01:18:34 PM
I mean, we've all been saying the exact same things, and reiterating our positions, for months now.

There's really no purpose to this thread.  In the USA at least, the problem has been solved, for those that actually care to find a solution.

Ferris Bueller would tell us to go home, it's all over.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 20, 2021, 01:23:10 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 20, 2021, 01:17:30 PM
We have a mask mandate in our building, I sort of usually wear one in the lobby or on an elevator with someone else.

Kroger asks for one.  Restaurants don't seem to care with few exceptions.
Yeah, Kroger (Ralph's locally) has a sign up that masks are required regardless of vaccination status. So I wear it when I go. I don't avoid Ralph's because of the mask rule, but I don't exactly go there more than 1-2 times a month, so it's not like it's a big deal anyway. 

That said, I'm meeting my good friend from Chicago this weekend for lunch (he's out here for Phish shows) and he's staying up in LA County with another Phish fan. I'm planning our meeting to be in Orange County rather than LA County, because LA County requires masks and requires to show proof of vax to enter businesses. Everyone age 12+ in my family is vaccinated and we could show our cards, but I'm not going to LA County because I disagree with their mandate. 

Of course I also don't want to drive to LA County, so there's that.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 20, 2021, 01:24:59 PM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 20, 2021, 01:23:10 PM

Of course I also don't want to drive to LA County, so there's that.


Can't blame you for THAT!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 20, 2021, 01:27:06 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 20, 2021, 01:23:10 PM
Yeah, Kroger (Ralph's locally) has a sign up that masks are required regardless of vaccination status. So I wear it when I go. I don't avoid Ralph's because of the mask rule, but I don't exactly go there more than 1-2 times a month, so it's not like it's a big deal anyway.

That said, I'm meeting my good friend from Chicago this weekend for lunch (he's out here for Phish shows) and he's staying up in LA County with another Phish fan. I'm planning our meeting to be in Orange County rather than LA County, because LA County requires masks and requires to show proof of vax to enter businesses. Everyone age 12+ in my family is vaccinated and we could show our cards, but I'm not going to LA County because I disagree with their mandate.

Of course I also don't want to drive to LA County, so there's that.


That is complete BS right there. Terrible policy that only hurts the businesses.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 20, 2021, 01:27:50 PM
We had to show our card to get into the symphony here, that has been the only occasion for me.  I don't think businesses should be in that business.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 20, 2021, 01:29:33 PM
For a while, businesses in my more rural suburb, didn't have mask requirements, while businesses within Austin proper, did.  I certainly avoided the businesses in Austin proper for that reason.  

But now, not even Austin businesses are requiring masks, so I go to whichever is more convenient at the time.  It's been that way for months.  Folks around here are done.  There's a vaccine available, why should they NOT be done?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 20, 2021, 01:31:15 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 20, 2021, 01:27:06 PM
That is complete BS right there. Terrible policy that only hurts the businesses.
Yep. I don't know if businesses are complying. The LA County Sheriff basically said they're not going use any resources to enforce it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 20, 2021, 01:31:37 PM
if a business has a sign on the door requiring masks, I don't put mine on until asked by an employee

no one seems to say a word

the sign is only there to appease the mayor or other government official

this was in the city of Lincoln
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 20, 2021, 01:33:18 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 20, 2021, 01:31:15 PM
Yep. I don't know if businesses are complying. The LA County Sheriff basically said they're not going use any resources to enforce it.

I read that an In-and-Out in SF was shut down for not enforcing it, I guess the po po in SF don't have much crime otherwise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 20, 2021, 01:33:32 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 20, 2021, 01:27:50 PM
We had to show our card to get into the symphony here, that has been the only occasion for me.  I don't think businesses should be in that business.
Yeah, our theater is doing it voluntarily as well. The first show we're scheduled to attend isn't until January, so depending on what the numbers look like by then it's possible that they'll change their tune before the new season of shows starts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 20, 2021, 01:40:04 PM
I'll be at Circuit of the Americas this weekend with 300,000 other people.  I'll let you know how many masks I count. ;)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 20, 2021, 02:22:37 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 20, 2021, 01:40:04 PM
I'll be at Circuit of the Americas this weekend with 300,000 other people.  I'll let you know how many masks I count. ;)


You will be able to count them on one hand.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on October 21, 2021, 01:36:22 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 20, 2021, 01:27:06 PM
That is complete BS right there. Terrible policy that only hurts the businesses.
My dad is 89. He had a good professional career before his retirement.
He has been working high school kid jobs in his retirement. But in March 2020 he took a leave of absence. He said he would die if he didn't work theretofore. He wants to return to sacking groceries at Safeway, but working at Safeway isn't safe, right now. It would be if we all were vaccinated, and wore masks. Right now, Safeway is not safe to work in if you are elderly. Please have compassion. We should be rowing the boat together, but we are not. Our country is losing its way.
Lack of common sense amongst the unvaccinated 40% hurts business, and the national economy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 07:07:56 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on October 21, 2021, 01:36:22 AM
My dad is 89. He had a good professional career before his retirement.
He has been working high school kid jobs in his retirement. But in March 2020 he took a leave of absence. He said he would die if he didn't work theretofore. He wants to return to sacking groceries at Safeway, but working at Safeway isn't safe, right now. It would be if we all were vaccinated, and wore masks. Right now, Safeway is not safe to work in if you are elderly. Please have compassion. We should be rowing the boat together, but we are not. Our country is losing its way.
Lack of common sense amongst the unvaccinated 40% hurts business, and the national economy.
That is so great and impressive that your dad is still more than willing and able to work at the age of 89. 

I am staunchly pro vaccination. Not only did I get vaccinated as soon as I was able to, and I will get the Moderno booster as soon as that is available, but I also strongly and vehemently encourage everyone in my sphere of influence to be vaccinated.

Having said all that I find your take hard to understand. If you believe in the vaccination, then why do you also believe that working there is only safe if everybody is vaccinated and wearing a mask?

In effect, what it really says is that you don’t believe the vaccination is truly effective unless 100% of the population has it, and is wearing a mask. And that of course is factually proven wrong by the data.

for those who are unvaccinated for whatever the reason, they look at your take and it only convinces them that the vaccination is not effective.  They see people who are vaccinated not wanting to be around those that are not and think to themselves “what’s the point“.

As far as the economic impact you mentioned, you could make a case that vaccine mandates are just as bad if not worse for the economy. Places that require vaccination get less business and some go out of business. Corporations that fire people or have people resign because they are not vaccinated are often brought to their knees. You need to look no further than the airlines, hospitals, and first responder units to see this.

The main reason I got vaccinated was to protect myself and to protect others but now we’ve learned that transmission still occurs with the vaccination. So now the obvious reason I’m vaccinated is more to protect myself. I don’t think I have the right to force someone who does not want to be vaccinated to get one. 

all we can do is strongly, strongly encourage it but I will not let the unvaccinated deter me from living my life because I am vaccinated.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 21, 2021, 08:22:19 AM
And now we're talking about issues, and their real-world consequences, rather than flinging poo.

Excellent discussion, guys.  I knew we could do it.  Hooray, us!  THIS is why I prefer this thread, on this forum, to all of the others out there on various message boards I frequent.

This is obviously a tough issue.  I've stated my position pretty clearly-- the vaccine replaces the mask.  It does the same thing as the mask, but does it orders of magnitude better.  Once vaccinated, there is no longer utility in wearing the mask.

So the focus needs to be solely on getting as many people as possible, vaccinated.  While also understanding HB's point that 100% vaccinations is NOT required to reach our goals.  Not is it anywhere close to realistic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 21, 2021, 08:28:21 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 20, 2021, 01:27:06 PM
That is complete BS right there. Terrible policy that only hurts the businesses.
businesses > lives
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Geolion91 on October 21, 2021, 08:30:31 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 07:07:56 AM

As far as the economic impact you mentioned, you could make a case that vaccine mandates are just as bad if not worse for the economy. Places that require vaccination get less business and some go out of business. Corporations that fire people or have people resign because they are not vaccinated are often brought to their knees. You need to look no further than the airlines, hospitals, and first responder units to see this.




I don't think there is any real evidence of this, it's just too early to tell.  Certainly, being "brought to their knees" is a bit of a hyperbole.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 21, 2021, 08:33:29 AM
Quote from: Geolion91 on October 21, 2021, 08:30:31 AM
I don't think there is any real evidence of this, it's just too early to tell.  Certainly, being "brought to their knees" is a bit of a hyperbole.
The business > lives crowd reply on hyperbole because it's all they have.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Geolion91 on October 21, 2021, 08:37:14 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 20, 2021, 01:33:32 PM
Yeah, our theater is doing it voluntarily as well. The first show we're scheduled to attend isn't until January, so depending on what the numbers look like by then it's possible that they'll change their tune before the new season of shows starts.
Bridgestone Arena, in Nashville, is requiring proof of vaccination or a negative COVID test for entry.  For the U of North Dakota - Penn State hockey game they are making arrangements to have the quick tests available.  They're also working with Clear https://www.clearme.com/ to speed up entry for those that have signed up for it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 21, 2021, 08:40:03 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 21, 2021, 08:28:21 AM
businesses > lives
For those of us who actually run businesses... business IS life.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 21, 2021, 08:50:10 AM
What does COVID-19, a virus, have in common with tuberculosis (TB), a bacterium? Scientists this week reported in a new finding that TB, like the coronavirus, is spread when infected people simply breathe and the pathogen circulates as an aerosol (The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/19/health/tuberculosis-transmission-aerosols.html)).


If true, this is fascinating, to me.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 08:51:01 AM
Quote from: Geolion91 on October 21, 2021, 08:30:31 AM
I don't think there is any real evidence of this, it's just too early to tell.  Certainly, being "brought to their knees" is a bit of a hyperbole.
There is plenty of evidence.  Did you not see the nearly complete shutdown of Southwest Airlines?  Did you see how many millions of dollars they lost?

Have you not been watching how many hospitals have stopped doing certain procedures or are reporting staff shortages due to workers not being vaccinated? Or Police departments who have openly told their community to not call 911 unless it is dire, or to expect much slower response times?  Have you not seen the heartbreaking reports of small businesses who can’t function because of employees leaving over mask or vaccine mandates?

if not- PM me and I will send links. They are out there everyday.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 08:58:47 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 21, 2021, 08:33:29 AM
The business > lives crowd reply on hyperbole because it's all they have.
The Everyone must agree with me crowd rely on lack of knowledge and ignoring reality because they don’t get the simple concept that people who don’t have jobs and can’t feed their family is causing health, psychological and financial hardships for everyone.  They are quite comfortable with the government supporting those folks, and ignore the fact that The government can’t give anything to anyone without first taking it from someone else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 21, 2021, 09:00:08 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 21, 2021, 08:33:29 AM
The business > lives crowd reply on hyperbole because it's all they have.
As you continue to suck on the government teet.Just keep printing money
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 21, 2021, 09:03:30 AM
Let's stay on topic and away from political opinions please.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 09:10:14 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 21, 2021, 09:03:30 AM
Let's stay on topic and away from political opinions please.


I only see one person getting political here- the rest are policy related.  It the usual suspect. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 21, 2021, 09:22:31 AM
Hawkinole and his father have a point

his father is vaccinated and the vaccine will probably work well and lessen the effects of the virus should he contact it at Safeway, BUT......

the dude is 89 years old and not getting younger.  not to mention other health ailments he may or may not be aware of....  Even with help from the vaccine, the virus could cause serious illness including hospitalization and death

I would suggest another part-time job for a while if he really feels he needs to work through this.  There are many options, some safer with less public contact than Safeway
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 21, 2021, 09:30:59 AM
These plastic shields most retail places have put up, are they effective?  It seems thay should be, at least somewhat, if breathing spreads the virus.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Geolion91 on October 21, 2021, 09:40:33 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 08:58:47 AM
The Everyone must agree with me crowd rely on lack of knowledge and ignoring reality because they don’t get the simple concept that people who don’t have jobs and can’t feed their family is causing health, psychological and financial hardships for everyone.  They are quite comfortable with the government supporting those folks, and ignore the fact that The government can’t give anything to anyone without first taking it from someone else.
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 08:51:01 AM
There is plenty of evidence.  Did you not see the nearly complete shutdown of Southwest Airlines?  Did you see how many millions of dollars they lost?

Have you not been watching how many hospitals have stopped doing certain procedures or are reporting staff shortages due to workers not being vaccinated? Or Police departments who have openly told their community to not call 911 unless it is dire, or to expect much slower response times?  Have you not seen the heartbreaking reports of small businesses who can’t function because of employees leaving over mask or vaccine mandates?

if not- PM me and I will send links. They are out there everyday. 
Last I checked, Southwest is still operating, they were not completely shutdown.  In that case, the company chose to require their employees to be vaccinated.  Yes, they were forced to cancel a LOT of flights, and they backed off requiring vaccines.  The hospitals have been short-handed and overworked long before any vaccine mandates came out.  Given that hospitals take care of sick people, that is one area I fully support a vaccine mandate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 21, 2021, 09:44:24 AM
The delta variant has a mutation: what we know so far (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/21/the-delta-variant-has-a-mutation-what-we-know-so-far.html)

 A newly-discovered mutation of the delta variant is being investigated in the U.K. amid worries that it could make the virus even more transmissible and undermine Covid-19 vaccines further.
Still, there are many unknowns surrounding this descendent or subtype of the delta variant — formally known as AY.4.2 — which some are dubbing the new “delta plus” variant.

U.K. government health officials have said it’s too early to tell whether the mutation poses a greater risk to public health than the delta variant, which itself is significantly more infectious than the original Covid-19 strain (and its successor, the alpha variant).
But they have stated that they are monitoring the mutation very closely: it now accounts for 6% of U.K. Covid cases that have been genetically sequenced at a time when infections in the country are rising rapidly.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 09:59:14 AM
Quote from: Geolion91 on October 21, 2021, 09:40:33 AM
Last I checked, Southwest is still operating, they were not completely shutdown.  In that case, the company chose to require their employees to be vaccinated.  Yes, they were forced to cancel a LOT of flights, and they backed off requiring vaccines.  The hospitals have been short-handed and overworked long before any vaccine mandates came out.  Given that hospitals take care of sick people, that is one area I fully support a vaccine mandate.
Yes that’s why I use the term “brought them to the knees“ as opposed to saying they were put out of business.  It cost them millions and will cost them millions more in the future as they permanently lost quite a few clients. All you have to do is drive through strip malls, fast food restaurants or any other industrial area to see how many businesses are now out of business due to all of this. It’s not hyper bole by any means.

I am not agreeing or disagreeing with vaccine mandates in hospitals. I was simply pointing out that the economic and other outcomes are potentially as bad or worse from the vaccine mandates as opposed to the original post which basically said that people not being vaccinated are a greater economic problem.

A government entity or a business has the right to have a vaccine mandate for its employees. The courts have clearly shown they support that.

Whether or not it’s the right thing to do is open to everybody’s differing opinions. If you live in a city where 25 or 35% of the police department refuses to get vaccinated and therefore loses their jobs, how do you feel about that? I don’t know the answer because it doesn’t apply where I live. I imagine it’s pretty difficult. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 21, 2021, 10:03:23 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 09:59:14 AM
Whether or not it’s the right thing to do is open to everybody’s differing opinions. If you live in a city where 25 or 35% of the police department refuses to get vaccinated and therefore loses their jobs, how do you feel about that? I don’t know the answer because it doesn’t apply where I live. I imagine it’s pretty difficult.
I suppose I'd have a message for those policemen:

(https://i.imgur.com/mD9W2fr.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 21, 2021, 10:11:06 AM
Southwest Airlines' October flight cancellations cost carrier $75 million (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/21/southwest-airlines-october-flight-cancellations-cost-carrier-75-million.html)

Dallas-based Southwest canceled more than 2,000 flights (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/10/southwest-airlines-cancels-1000-more-flights-as-disruptions-mount.html) between Oct. 8 and Oct. 13. It blamed the meltdown on bad weather in Florida and air traffic control issues, which was compounded by staffing shortages. Its closest rivals, including those in Florida, had relatively minimal cancellations.

The hit came from flight cancellations, customer refunds and “gestures of goodwill.”
The airline reported a third-quarter profit of $446 million on Thursday thanks to a boost from federal aid and voluntary leaves of absence by employees, but it said staff shortages led to operational problems that hurt its bottom line.
“Our active (versus inactive) and available staffing fell below plan and, along with other factors, caused us to miss our operational ontime performance targets, and that created additional cost headwinds,” Southwest CEO Gary Kelly said. That along with a surge in Covid-19 (https://www.cnbc.com/coronavirus/) cases led to a revenue hit of $300 million, he said.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 21, 2021, 10:12:34 AM
When was there bad weather in Florida?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 21, 2021, 10:12:43 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 21, 2021, 08:32:39 AM
You guys realize that mask mandates are a message, right?  It's an attempt to coerce the unvaxxed to "git 'er done" and be welcome everywhere.  It's not a draconian restriction on our freedoms.  It's simply making public life too much of a hassle without being vaccinated. 
I've tried to explain the problem with mask mandates, because I see it here in California.

California has a statewide mask mandate that states that the unvaccinated must wear masks. Those who are fully vaccinated are recommended but not required. (Note: LA County and 7 Bay Area Counties have more strict local rules saying everyone must be masked regardless of vax status.)

So what happens? The people who are vaccinated have taken off their masks. And, quite predictably, the people who are unvaccinated have taken off their masks, because no business is going to accost someone without a mask and demand to see their vax card.

So if you have a disparate policy, that policy does not incentivize the unvaccinated to get the jab.

So you could go the other way. You could be like LA County or those Bay Area counties which are now requiring masks for everyone, regardless of vaccination status. That also doesn't lead the unvaccinated to get the jab, because there's no incentive (the ability to take off the mask) to getting it. I think they just figure they'll wait it out until the vaccinated get fed up enough to force a policy change.

I'm attaching the vaccination rates over time for Orange County, where the [unenforced] rule is that masks are required for the unvaccinated. I'm also attaching the vaccination rates over time for Los Angeles County, where the rule is that masks are required for everyone.

I don't see much difference in the graphs, leading me to suggest that mask mandates don't really affect vaccination rates to any appreciable degree. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 21, 2021, 10:17:45 AM
The airline reported a third-quarter profit of $446 million on Thursday thanks to a boost from federal aid and voluntary leaves of absence by employees, but it said staff shortages led to operational problems that hurt its bottom line.

_________________________________________________ __________

Geeeeezzzz

I feel bad for them.  How will they ever go on???
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 21, 2021, 10:18:55 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 21, 2021, 10:12:34 AM
When was there bad weather in Florida?
I don't know that any significant outages were weather related, perhaps locally there could have been some thunderstorms.

It's probably a lame excuse, but the hit to their earnings is pretty modest, if temporary.  Our two flights were on time and I didn't notice delays around the airports.  We were on Delta, the wife won't fly anything else without there being no other option.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 10:40:21 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 21, 2021, 10:12:34 AM
When was there bad weather in Florida?
There wasn’t. Coincidentally they reversed their position on vaccine mandates and everybody came back to work all of the sudden.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 10:43:11 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 21, 2021, 10:17:45 AM
The airline reported a third-quarter profit of $446 million on Thursday thanks to a boost from federal aid and voluntary leaves of absence by employees, but it said staff shortages led to operational problems that hurt its bottom line.

_________________________________________________ __________

Geeeeezzzz

I feel bad for them.  How will they ever go on???
Well they lost $300mm- conservatively. Long-term loss is probably far greater.

it has nothing to do with whether or not you or anyone feel sorry for them. Their shareholders and Board of Directors will not stand for revenue losses of that size which are extremely significant. They had to fix the problem and so they did. They changed their position on the vaccine mandate.

and coincidentally and suddenly all the weather problems that only they were being impacted by, cleared up. 😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 21, 2021, 10:48:39 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 20, 2021, 01:27:06 PM
That is complete BS right there. Terrible policy that only hurts the businesses.
I wonder how much it's actually enforced. By that, I mean, if the business halfheartedly asks and consumers halfheartedly do it, probably becomes a big whatever. 

Of course, the flip side is once you put a law in place, someone somewhere is gonna take the brunt of it, so I can buy that. (I wear a mask into the grocery store and while walking into restaurants because I have no desire to talk to someone who might ask about it. I kinda like having a mask for public restrooms. That's an upshot)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 10:54:57 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 21, 2021, 10:48:39 AM
I wonder how much it's actually enforced. By that, I mean, if the business halfheartedly asks and consumers halfheartedly do it, probably becomes a big whatever.

Of course, the flip side is once you put a law in place, someone somewhere is gonna take the brunt of it, so I can buy that. (I wear a mask into the grocery store and while walking into restaurants because I have no desire to talk to someone who might ask about it. I kinda like having a mask for public restrooms. That's an upshot)
👍😊
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 21, 2021, 11:09:24 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 21, 2021, 10:12:34 AM
When was there bad weather in Florida?
Hurricanes?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 21, 2021, 11:17:12 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 10:43:11 AM
Well they lost $300mm- conservatively. Long-term loss is probably far greater.

it has nothing to do with whether or not you or anyone feel sorry for them. Their shareholders and Board of Directors will not stand for revenue losses of that size which are extremely significant. They had to fix the problem and so they did. They changed their position on the vaccine mandate.

and coincidentally and suddenly all the weather problems that only they were being impacted by, cleared up. 😂😂
For clarity, most of that $300 million dip in expected revenue has nothing to do with a vaccine mandate. Unless I'm misreading it.

(That initially read semi-combative and it didn't have to)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 21, 2021, 11:29:21 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 21, 2021, 11:09:24 AM
Hurricanes?
Haven't seen one here since early July.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on October 21, 2021, 12:30:53 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 21, 2021, 09:30:59 AM
These plastic shields most retail places have put up, are they effective?  It seems thay should be, at least somewhat, if breathing spreads the virus.


Based on how much spit residue was on the ones at Maplewood Costco at the end of the evening, very effective.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 12:38:37 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 21, 2021, 11:17:12 AM
For clarity, most of that $300 million dip in expected revenue has nothing to do with a vaccine mandate. Unless I'm misreading it.

(That initially read semi-combative and it didn't have to)
Incorrect. The pilots and staff were approaching the vaccine or quit or be fired date rapidly and decided to make a statement by taking all of their unused vacation simultaneously.  That’s not what was said publicly because as a show of good faith they allowed the corporate press release to say it was related to weather, which prevents them from having to pay client refunds.

That was openly stated by numerous Southwest employees. Due to the thousands of canceled flights that was revenue that was lost. Did you think it was a coincidence that they changed their position on the vaccine mandates and all the flights started going smoothly? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 21, 2021, 12:40:31 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 21, 2021, 08:28:21 AM
businesses > lives
Basic logical fallacy, false dichotomy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 21, 2021, 12:47:37 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 21, 2021, 11:29:21 AM
Haven't seen one here since early July.
Careful,Poseidon may be feeding you a fast ball,up and in
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 21, 2021, 12:49:43 PM
I believe SW was pretty much due to staff resistance to the vaccine mandate (not the vaccine itself).  They did a save face PR announcement blaming weather and staffing shortages when it was really the latter.  And then they reversed the mandate.

Report: Southwest Reverses, to Retain Employees Seeking Vaccine Exemption | Business Travel News (https://www.businesstravelnews.com/Transportation/Air/Report-Southwest-Reverses-to-Retain-Employees-Seeking-Vaccine-Exemption)

No Evidence Southwest Airlines Reversed Course on Worker Vax Mandate | Snopes.com (https://www.snopes.com/news/2021/10/20/southwest-mandate-terminate/)

The Snopes summary is rather confusing and parses words too much for me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 21, 2021, 12:52:48 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 21, 2021, 10:17:45 AM
The airline reported a third-quarter profit of $446 million on Thursday thanks to a boost from federal aid and voluntary leaves of absence by employees, but it said staff shortages led to operational problems that hurt its bottom line.

_________________________________________________ __________

Geeeeezzzz

I feel bad for them.  How will they ever go on???
Fly Fearless Airlines a fine assortment/collection of Iowa crop dusters,complete with Vietman era surplus chutes and ejection seats.CD can be the Chief Pilot
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 21, 2021, 01:09:17 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 21, 2021, 10:48:39 AM
I wonder how much it's actually enforced. By that, I mean, if the business halfheartedly asks and consumers halfheartedly do it, probably becomes a big whatever.

Of course, the flip side is once you put a law in place, someone somewhere is gonna take the brunt of it, so I can buy that. (I wear a mask into the grocery store and while walking into restaurants because I have no desire to talk to someone who might ask about it. I kinda like having a mask for public restrooms. That's an upshot)
A law?

I guess I missed the bill, and the subsequent voting in the two chambers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 21, 2021, 01:09:35 PM
Well, I have survived something few other pilots have (engine out landing with no power in a field).

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 21, 2021, 01:10:59 PM
Passing laws and regulations that cannot be enforced rationally makes no sense to me.

I don't see how OSHA can possibly check up on the vaccine mandate.  I think most smaller companies will just ask and record responses.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 21, 2021, 01:36:26 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 21, 2021, 09:30:59 AM
These plastic shields most retail places have put up, are they effective?  It seems thay should be, at least somewhat, if breathing spreads the virus.


spit residue is one thing or droplets..

but, if mere breathing spreads the virus, plastic shields and paper/cloth masks do very little

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 21, 2021, 02:48:08 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 21, 2021, 01:09:17 PM
A law?

I guess I missed the bill, and the subsequent voting in the two chambers.
Badge, you may not like it, but Congress passes laws granting rulemaking authority to agencies. Those rules, while never voted on by Congress directly, carry the force of law. Acting as if you don't understand this is beneath you. 

As for the LA law calling for proof of vaccine for entry into public places, I believe that was formally voted upon by the appropriate county supervisors. It wasn't just declared by the board of health.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 21, 2021, 02:52:20 PM
I understand completely. It's just overreach at this point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 21, 2021, 03:21:12 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 12:38:37 PM
Incorrect. The pilots and staff were approaching the vaccine or quit or be fired date rapidly and decided to make a statement by taking all of their unused vacation simultaneously.  That’s not what was said publicly because as a show of good faith they allowed the corporate press release to say it was related to weather, which prevents them from having to pay client refunds.

That was openly stated by numerous Southwest employees. Due to the thousands of canceled flights that was revenue that was lost. Did you think it was a coincidence that they changed their position on the vaccine mandates and all the flights started going smoothly?
It’s not 100 percent clear in reading the statement where the $300 million is from, but that seems like a quarter-wide loss, which suggests a broader scale than just this. Not to say that this didn’t put a hefty dent in it. But it wasn’t responsible for that whole tamale, it appears.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 21, 2021, 03:25:37 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 21, 2021, 01:09:17 PM
A law?

I guess I missed the bill, and the subsequent voting in the two chambers.
Sounds like something more ethereal, more ignorable and less likely to actually harm businesses to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 03:34:32 PM
https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2021/10/125985/national-champion-starter-ivan-douglas-dies-at-age-41-from-covid-19-complications

Heart wrenching.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 03:41:57 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 21, 2021, 03:21:12 PM
It’s not 100 percent clear in reading the statement where the $300 million is from, but that seems like a quarter-wide loss, which suggests a broader scale than just this. Not to say that this didn’t put a hefty dent in it. But it wasn’t responsible for that whole tamale, it appears.

You are tenacious I’ll give you that even in the face of facts he won’t give up your position.

https://apple.news/Ai7P8EAZ7Tg2GPbMiNYd2Ww

Never fear, despite their loss is stemming from issues specifically between October 8 and October 13, which they blamed on Florida weather and which impacted no other airlines including ones that fly much more out of Florida, they made a nice profit thanks to federal aid.

As a matter of policy hopefully you realize that the government can’t give them something unless they have taken that something away from someone else.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 21, 2021, 04:08:09 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 03:41:57 PM
You are tenacious I’ll give you that even in the face of facts he won’t give up your position.

https://apple.news/Ai7P8EAZ7Tg2GPbMiNYd2Ww

Never fear, despite their loss is stemming from issues specifically between October 8 and October 13, which they blamed on Florida weather and which impacted no other airlines including ones that fly much more out of Florida, they made a nice profit thanks to federal aid.

As a matter of policy hopefully you realize that the government can’t give them something unless they have taken that something away from someone else.


FFS HB. I have no great stock in this. I’m not rooting for the bailout or Southwest or whatever else.

By my reading, the $300 million loss isn’t 100 percent to employees who are not interested in medicine. I’ve yet to see any facts that disprove this. I’ve barely seen facts that explain it as a mass walkout, though that might be the case. Please share the facts. I want those facts. If I see those facts, I’ll roll back my skepticism.

But just telling me there’s the secret walkout and that’s the whole thing, I’m not totally gonna buy it. Is it a big factor? Sure. But it doesn’t seem like the whole $300 mil enchilada, pending some real live facts.

(If we’re gonna talk about articles, here’s the press release all these places wrote off of https://www.southwestairlinesinvestorrelations.com/news-and-events/news-releases/2021/10-21-2021-114520553)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 05:43:11 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 21, 2021, 04:08:09 PM
FFS HB. I have no great stock in this. I’m not rooting for the bailout or Southwest or whatever else.

By my reading, the $300 million loss isn’t 100 percent to employees who are not interested in medicine. I’ve yet to see any facts that disprove this. I’ve barely seen facts that explain it as a mass walkout, though that might be the case. Please share the facts. I want those facts. If I see those facts, I’ll roll back my skepticism.

But just telling me there’s the secret walkout and that’s the whole thing, I’m not totally gonna buy it. Is it a big factor? Sure. But it doesn’t seem like the whole $300 mil enchilada, pending some real live facts.

(If we’re gonna talk about articles, here’s the press release all these places wrote off of https://www.southwestairlinesinvestorrelations.com/news-and-events/news-releases/2021/10-21-2021-114520553)
And your saying “FFS” to me?  The irony is hysterical.

you took us down this silly rabbit hole and so I won’t waste anymore of your time or mine on this. 

this was a conversation about the potential economic effects of the vaccine mandate, and a theory of mine, obviously shared by some others, that the vaccine mandates have potentially as much or more negative impact on the economy and services.

You can believe whatever you want as I get the sense that’s how you operate anyway regardless of what is put in front of you to read.
I’m not the only one who posted things for you to read.

The CNBC article I just posted clearly indicates that $75 million was directly related to the flight cancellations which happened in abundance between October 8 and October 13. It also indicates that it had other impacts and that total losses were 300 million.

Southwest has publicly and flat out denied that it was related at all to the vaccine mandate so you have that on your side and if that’s what you want to believe that’s your privilege.

Numerous employees have gone public without revealing their names and said otherwise and the circumstantial evidence to support their claim is overwhelming.  No other airline had flight cancellations outside of the norm and that five day stretch that they had attributed to Florida weather.  They publicly changed their position on the vaccine mandates and suddenly and swiftly their flight cancellation problem went away.  and all of this happened just days before the vaccine mandate was to take effect. 

If you can’t surmise what is obvious, because it doesn’t fit some narrative- then cheers to you.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/10/19/southwest-airlines-scraps-plan-to-put-employees-seeking-vaccine-exemptions-on-unpaid-leave/?sh=4c73b83a699a
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 21, 2021, 05:59:56 PM
Wyoming remains the most vaccine-hesitant state in the nation, according to the latest numbers from U.S. Census Bureau polling. Wyoming children ages 12 to 17 now fall into that category as well.

An estimated 25% of Wyoming adults and 27% of eligible children will definitely or probably not get a vaccine, based on responses to an online bureau survey and statistical modelling conducted by the federal agency.

West Virginia and Idaho — the states with worse or comparable vaccination rates to Wyoming — reported roughly 15% of residents would definitely or probably not accept inoculation, a difference of 10 percentage points from Wyoming’s position as the most vaccine hesitant state in the country.

Nationwide, roughly 11% of residents say they definitely or probably will not seek COVID-19 shots. The top reason for declining the inoculations was concern over side effects.

The survey breaks the population of unvaccinated residents into four camps: those who will definitely not get the shots, those who probably will not, those who are unsure and those who will probably get vaccinated at some point.

The top two reasons Wyoming residents in the two most reluctant categories said they wouldn’t get vaccinated were a distrust of government overall and a distrust of the vaccines themselves.


https://nptelegraph.com/news/state-and-regional/article_4ce59486-f33d-5a2d-8eb4-209e1d04d7de.html (https://nptelegraph.com/news/state-and-regional/article_4ce59486-f33d-5a2d-8eb4-209e1d04d7de.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 21, 2021, 06:10:30 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 05:43:11 PM
And your saying “FFS” to me?  The irony is hysterical.

you took us down this silly rabbit hole and so I won’t waste anymore of your time or mine on this. 

this was a conversation about the potential economic effects of the vaccine mandate, and a theory of mine, obviously shared by some others, that the vaccine mandates have potentially as much or more negative impact on the economy and services.

You can believe whatever you want as I get the sense that’s how you operate anyway regardless of what is put in front of you to read.
I’m not the only one who posted things for you to read.

The CNBC article I just posted clearly indicates that $75 million was directly related to the flight cancellations which happened in abundance between October 8 and October 13. It also indicates that it had other impacts and that total losses were 300 million.

Southwest has publicly and flat out denied that it was related at all to the vaccine mandate so you have that on your side and if that’s what you want to believe that’s your privilege.

Numerous employees have gone public without revealing their names and said otherwise and the circumstantial evidence to support their claim is overwhelming.  No other airline had flight cancellations outside of the norm and that five day stretch that they had attributed to Florida weather.  They publicly changed their position on the vaccine mandates and suddenly and swiftly their flight cancellation problem went away.  and all of this happened just days before the vaccine mandate was to take effect. 

If you can’t surmise what is obvious, because it doesn’t fit some narrative- then cheers to you.
I'm not going to delve into the specifics, because I basically don't know and don't care about the specifics. 

However, I think we should be VERY clear about what we're talking about here.

The Southwest vaccine mandate was not some heavy-handed government policy. It wasn't like policies like in California or Oregon where healthcare workers are REQUIRED to get the vaccine to continue work. It wasn't like LA County or San Francisco where government said that you can't go into public places (restaurants, bars, etc) unless you show proof of vax.

This was a company voluntarily enacting a mandate on their own workers. Their own workers got pissed about it, so they [allegedly] essentially went on strike. The company [allegedly] suffered for pissing off their own workers. 

So we should be very clear about the difference between voluntary company vaccine mandates and government enforced vaccine mandates. As far as I know, the Biden executive order asking OSHA to create a vaccine mandate has not actually changed any official OSHA policies and no mandate exists, so Southwest was acting on their own. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 06:11:17 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 21, 2021, 05:59:56 PM
Wyoming remains the most vaccine-hesitant state in the nation, according to the latest numbers from U.S. Census Bureau polling. Wyoming children ages 12 to 17 now fall into that category as well.

An estimated 25% of Wyoming adults and 27% of eligible children will definitely or probably not get a vaccine, based on responses to an online bureau survey and statistical modelling conducted by the federal agency.

West Virginia and Idaho — the states with worse or comparable vaccination rates to Wyoming — reported roughly 15% of residents would definitely or probably not accept inoculation, a difference of 10 percentage points from Wyoming’s position as the most vaccine hesitant state in the country.

Nationwide, roughly 11% of residents say they definitely or probably will not seek COVID-19 shots. The top reason for declining the inoculations was concern over side effects.

The survey breaks the population of unvaccinated residents into four camps: those who will definitely not get the shots, those who probably will not, those who are unsure and those who will probably get vaccinated at some point.

The top two reasons Wyoming residents in the two most reluctant categories said they wouldn’t get vaccinated were a distrust of government overall and a distrust of the vaccines themselves.


https://nptelegraph.com/news/state-and-regional/article_4ce59486-f33d-5a2d-8eb4-209e1d04d7de.html (https://nptelegraph.com/news/state-and-regional/article_4ce59486-f33d-5a2d-8eb4-209e1d04d7de.html)
Yes. Posted this a while back. UM survey cited mistrust of government as biggest driver, especially among younger people and African Americans

https://www.mlive.com/news/ann-arbor/2021/07/government-distrust-driving-younger-detroiters-covid-vaccine-hesitancy-university-of-michigan-survey-says.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 06:16:19 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 21, 2021, 06:10:30 PM
I'm not going to delve into the specifics, because I basically don't know and don't care about the specifics.

However, I think we should be VERY clear about what we're talking about here.

The Southwest vaccine mandate was not some heavy-handed government policy. It wasn't like policies like in California or Oregon where healthcare workers are REQUIRED to get the vaccine to continue work. It wasn't like LA County or San Francisco where government said that you can't go into public places (restaurants, bars, etc) unless you show proof of vax.

This was a company voluntarily enacting a mandate on their own workers. Their own workers got pissed about it, so they [allegedly] essentially went on strike. The company [allegedly] suffered for pissing off their own workers.

So we should be very clear about the difference between voluntary company vaccine mandates and government enforced vaccine mandates. As far as I know, the Biden executive order asking OSHA to create a vaccine mandate has not actually changed any official OSHA policies and no mandate exists, so Southwest was acting on their own.
You raise a great point. It’s a tangent to the original conversation which was/ do vaccine mandates cause economic issues- but a great point. 

but the CEO of Southwest disagrees with you.

https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2021/10/southwest-ceo-blames-biden-for-vaccine-mandate-says-employees-should-seek-medical-or-religious-exemption/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 21, 2021, 06:18:57 PM
of course the CEO of Southwest disagrees with you

would you expect him to be upfront and transparent?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 21, 2021, 06:21:02 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 05:43:11 PM
And your saying “FFS” to me?  The irony is hysterical.

you took us down this silly rabbit hole and so I won’t waste anymore of your time or mine on this. 

this was a conversation about the potential economic effects of the vaccine mandate, and a theory of mine, obviously shared by some others, that the vaccine mandates have potentially as much or more negative impact on the economy and services.

You can believe whatever you want as I get the sense that’s how you operate anyway regardless of what is put in front of you to read.
I’m not the only one who posted things for you to read.

The CNBC article I just posted clearly indicates that $75 million was directly related to the flight cancellations which happened in abundance between October 8 and October 13. It also indicates that it had other impacts and that total losses were 300 million.

Southwest has publicly and flat out denied that it was related at all to the vaccine mandate so you have that on your side and if that’s what you want to believe that’s your privilege.

Numerous employees have gone public without revealing their names and said otherwise and the circumstantial evidence to support their claim is overwhelming.  No other airline had flight cancellations outside of the norm and that five day stretch that they had attributed to Florida weather.  They publicly changed their position on the vaccine mandates and suddenly and swiftly their flight cancellation problem went away.  and all of this happened just days before the vaccine mandate was to take effect. 

If you can’t surmise what is obvious, because it doesn’t fit some narrative- then cheers to you.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/10/19/southwest-airlines-scraps-plan-to-put-employees-seeking-vaccine-exemptions-on-unpaid-leave/?sh=4c73b83a699a
Y’know, your tone got me a little angsty. But, getting snappy back again is only gonna make a more angsty response, so I’ll roll that back.

I think I see where you’re coming from. I initially thought there was a little less surmising than there seems to be. Like polite adults, we can disagree on the interpretations, and frankly, I don’t know that I even disagree as much as I just don’t know and don’t particularly care to think too hard about it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 06:23:38 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 21, 2021, 06:18:57 PM
of course the CEO of Southwest disagrees with you

would you expect him to be upfront and transparent?
No- I didn’t say I disagree with him ( Purdue guy)😂

 It appears he (CEO) is “ putting the best spin” possible on it.  That’s what CEOs do.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 06:26:41 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 21, 2021, 06:21:02 PM
Y’know, your tone got me a little angsty. But, getting snappy back again is only gonna make a more angsty response, so I’ll roll that back.

I think I see where you’re coming from. I initially thought there was a little less surmising than there seems to be. Like polite adults, we can disagree on the interpretations, and frankly, I don’t know that I even disagree as much as I just don’t know and don’t particularly care to think too hard about it.
I apologize if it felt that way.  Not intentional. 

We may never know the full details. I just feel like Vaccine Mandates come with some negative side effects.  And I am not even disagreeing with them per se.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 21, 2021, 06:34:55 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 06:16:19 PM
You raise a great point. It’s a tangent to the original conversation which was/ do vaccine mandates cause economic issues- but a great point.

but the CEO of Southwest disagrees with you.

https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2021/10/southwest-ceo-blames-biden-for-vaccine-mandate-says-employees-should-seek-medical-or-religious-exemption/
Thanks. I hadn't realized that there was an additional executive order that actually directly affected airlines. 

But it leaves a question...

If this is all related to the gov't mandate, why was it just Southwest that had this response? Pilots and unionized airline workers communicate across companies--it seems weird that this would be a purely Southwest Airlines thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 06:47:46 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 21, 2021, 06:34:55 PM
Thanks. I hadn't realized that there was an additional executive order that actually directly affected airlines.

But it leaves a question...

If this is all related to the gov't mandate, why was it just Southwest that had this response? Pilots and unionized airline workers communicate across companies--it seems weird that this would be a purely Southwest Airlines thing.
Darn good question 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 21, 2021, 07:03:15 PM
American Airlines blames weather for hundreds of cancellations, delays

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/south-texas-el-paso/transit/2021/10/14/american-airlines-blames-weather-for-hundreds-of-cancelations (https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/south-texas-el-paso/transit/2021/10/14/american-airlines-blames-weather-for-hundreds-of-cancelations)

FORT WORTH, Texas — As of Thursday morning, Fort Worth-based American Airlines had canceled or delayed hundreds of flights in the United States over a recent a 24-hour span, from Wednesday to Thursday.

What You Need To Know
On Wednesday, more than 250 American Airlines flights were canceled due to weather

Most of the cancellations and delays were on flights to and from DFW

The airline denies online claims that the cancellations and delays were caused by striking pilots who were upset over vaccine mandates

Southwest Airlines canceled hundreds of flights one week prior
Data from aviation tracker FlightAware showed 263 flights were canceled on Wednesday, or 8% of the airline’s total flights. An additional 689, comprising 23%, were delayed. Of those canceled on Wednesday, 221 were flying into or out of Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, the company’s main hub.

The cancellations tapered on Thursday, as only 83 planes were grounded, representing 2% of all of its flights.

All over social media, angry passengers vented their frustrations toward the airline. Many of those people were told the flight changes were due to weather. Storms hit North Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday. An airline spokesperson said the delays were caused by the recent storms and the ripple effect of recovering from the logistical rejiggering.

Still, some people online have suggested their flights were canceled or delayed despite no trace of rain in their path, giving rise to various unfounded rumors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 21, 2021, 07:07:57 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 21, 2021, 11:29:21 AM
Haven't seen one here since early July.
For how it juts out into the Caribbean/Atlantic, FL gets surprisingly few direct-hit hurricanes.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 21, 2021, 07:35:22 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 21, 2021, 07:03:15 PM
American Airlines blames weather for hundreds of cancellations, delays

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/south-texas-el-paso/transit/2021/10/14/american-airlines-blames-weather-for-hundreds-of-cancelations (https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/south-texas-el-paso/transit/2021/10/14/american-airlines-blames-weather-for-hundreds-of-cancelations)

FORT WORTH, Texas — As of Thursday morning, Fort Worth-based American Airlines had canceled or delayed hundreds of flights in the United States over a recent a 24-hour span, from Wednesday to Thursday.

What You Need To Know
On Wednesday, more than 250 American Airlines flights were canceled due to weather

Most of the cancellations and delays were on flights to and from DFW

The airline denies online claims that the cancellations and delays were caused by striking pilots who were upset over vaccine mandates

Southwest Airlines canceled hundreds of flights one week prior
Data from aviation tracker FlightAware showed 263 flights were canceled on Wednesday, or 8% of the airline’s total flights. An additional 689, comprising 23%, were delayed. Of those canceled on Wednesday, 221 were flying into or out of Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, the company’s main hub.

The cancellations tapered on Thursday, as only 83 planes were grounded, representing 2% of all of its flights.

All over social media, angry passengers vented their frustrations toward the airline. Many of those people were told the flight changes were due to weather. Storms hit North Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday. An airline spokesperson said the delays were caused by the recent storms and the ripple effect of recovering from the logistical rejiggering.

Still, some people online have suggested their flights were canceled or delayed despite no trace of rain in their path, giving rise to various unfounded rumors.

Well that's also quite interesting and supports @Honestbuckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=37) 's implications here.

The only caveat I'd say is that people complaining that flights were canceled or delayed despite not having rain in their path don't know how air travel works. Often you may be on a route that's completely unaffected by weather but if the plane you're supposed to fly on can't get to the airport you're departing from due to weather elsewhere, then you're not getting to your destination on that plane. That may result in reroutes where you're delayed, or it might result in cancellations, but it's gonna cause a problem. 

Something to watch going forward. If this continues happening all over the place it might suggest that it's due to backlash over a vaccine mandate.

I can say that I know from a personal level that my brother (United pilot) is LIVID over this vaccine mandate. I haven't talked to him in weeks and I don't know how far he's willing to go. He just made Captain so he may not be willing to throw his career away over this vaccine mandate, but he's vehemently against it. I can absolutely see him being the type who would participate in a "sick out" over this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 07:46:03 PM
I have no idea what the weather was in Dallas so hard to tell on this one. 

Does make your curious though. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 21, 2021, 07:56:21 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 07:46:03 PM
I have no idea what the weather was in Dallas so hard to tell on this one.

Does make your curious though.
Supposedly there were storms in North Texas...

I don't know about DFW, but I can tell you that a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil can cause 500 flights delayed at O'Hare, but that might be a statement on O'Hare more than anything ;-) 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 21, 2021, 08:48:34 PM
😂😂😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 21, 2021, 09:42:57 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 21, 2021, 07:56:21 PM
Supposedly there were storms in North Texas...

I don't know about DFW, but I can tell you that a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil can cause 500 flights delayed at O'Hare, but that might be a statement on O'Hare more than anything ;-)

Unless it's a fire that burns that place to the ground, don't want to know about it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on October 21, 2021, 11:47:57 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 19, 2021, 10:29:46 AM
Yer gonna have to show your work on this one.  Link to credible source, please.


To quote @Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) who you’re responding to: “data being released by UK gov't showing that over 70% of all COVID deaths in that country are from the fully vaccinated.”


make of this what you will but I came across the below info right after I read the above UK comment:

https://twitter.com/pretty7159/status/1450100085338132485
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 22, 2021, 09:55:29 AM
Quote from: utee94 on October 20, 2021, 11:30:42 AM
We have credible data.

We do not have a clear message.


as utee says, this data may be credible
but there may be a lot more to it if digging in the details

"sequenced and genotyped delta cases"

I hope so
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 22, 2021, 10:13:14 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on October 21, 2021, 11:47:57 PM

To quote @Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) who you’re responding to: “data being released by UK gov't showing that over 70% of all COVID deaths in that country are from the fully vaccinated.”


make of this what you will but I came across the below info right after I read the above UK comment:

https://twitter.com/pretty7159/status/1450100085338132485

again this is very misleading

data required to tell the actual story

how many have been fully vaccinated
of those how many got covid
of those how many died

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/572011-05-percent-of-covid-19-fatalities-in-uk-this-year-were-breakthrough-deaths
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 22, 2021, 10:23:20 AM
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/13/fully-vaccinated-people-account-for-12-of-englands-covid-19-deaths

Fully vaccinated people account for 1.2% of England’s Covid-19 deaths

ONS figures show 51,281 Covid deaths between January and July, with 458 dying at least 21 days after second dose
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 22, 2021, 10:23:43 AM
but, it's credible data
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 22, 2021, 10:30:49 AM
And then of course there's this:

(https://i.imgur.com/SjbyTaD.png)

The most vulnerable people (the elderly) are vaccinated at EXTREMELY high rates--much higher than even here in the US.

That will always lead to a situation where on raw numbers the death between vaxxed and unvaxxed will look much higher than the actual risk indicates, because there are ~8-9 times more vaxxed in the most vulnerable populations. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 22, 2021, 10:33:32 AM
Ed Zachery why Hawkinole's 89 year old father is still wary

no sense joining statistics and being part of the credible data
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 22, 2021, 11:12:58 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 22, 2021, 10:33:32 AM
Ed Zachery why Hawkinole's 89 year old father is still wary

no sense joining statistics and being part of the credible data
I think that's fair... Some people (especially the elderly and immunocompromized) should be wary despite vaccination status. The elderly should be wary of COVID, and the flu, or a stiff breeze. 

But if the implication being made by someone using the data is that vaccines don't work at creating giant reductions in hospitalizations and deaths, well, that's just plain false.

Look at the cases and the deaths in the UK during the Delta surge:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

You can't even begin to say the vaccines aren't doing their job. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 22, 2021, 11:17:04 AM
wholeheartedly agree

my point is that even credible data can be used to send a message for an agenda

you know the quote:  Lies, damn lies, and statistics
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on October 22, 2021, 11:24:00 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on October 21, 2021, 11:47:57 PM

To quote @Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) who you’re responding to: “data being released by UK gov't showing that over 70% of all COVID deaths in that country are from the fully vaccinated.”


make of this what you will but I came across the below info right after I read the above UK comment:

https://twitter.com/pretty7159/status/1450100085338132485

That Twitter feed you're citing looks more like a misinformation shill than a legitimate source. Anything from there should be treated as false unless and until proven otherwise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on October 22, 2021, 11:38:31 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 22, 2021, 11:12:58 AM
I think that's fair... Some people (especially the elderly and immunocompromized) should be wary despite vaccination status. The elderly should be wary of COVID, and the flu, or a stiff breeze.

But if the implication being made by someone using the data is that vaccines don't work at creating giant reductions in hospitalizations and deaths, well, that's just plain false.

Look at the cases and the deaths in the UK during the Delta surge:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

You can't even begin to say the vaccines aren't doing their job.
Agree. Vaccinations really took the starch out of the last two waves in Minnesota. 

Sanford Health, the main hospital system in western MN and the eastern Dakotas, has been posting vaccination status of their COVID patients every Tuesday. Unsurprisingly, it's the unvaccinated who are filling up the hospital.


https://twitter.com/SanfordHealth/status/1450552385445707779?s=20
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 22, 2021, 12:09:40 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on October 22, 2021, 11:38:31 AM
Agree. Vaccinations really took the starch out of the last two waves in Minnesota.

Sanford Health, the main hospital system in western MN and the eastern Dakotas, has been posting vaccination status of their COVID patients every Tuesday. Unsurprisingly, it's the unvaccinated who are filling up the hospital.
Agreed. 

But Minnesota is currently at 92.1% vaccination for people 65+. Perhaps not in Western MN, but statewide.

My expectation is that with 92.1% vaccination rate amongst that population, the percentage of vaccinated deaths as a proportion of total deaths will start to rise. 

People will then start using that as ammunition against the vaccine, when it's entirely what is expected and normal to happen. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 22, 2021, 12:53:22 PM
people will use any ammunition they can find to support their agenda
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 22, 2021, 01:08:10 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 22, 2021, 12:53:22 PM
people will use any ammunition they can find to support their agenda
Of course. That's why different people can look at the same data and make different arguments about what it means.

The important thing to remember is that I'm right, and people who disagree with me are wrong. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 22, 2021, 01:17:15 PM
Confirmation bias.

Folks form an opinion and then seek confirmation of it, ignoring anything contrary.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 22, 2021, 02:42:38 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 22, 2021, 01:08:10 PM
Of course. That's why different people can look at the same data and make different arguments about what it means.

The important thing to remember is that I'm right, and people who disagree with me are wrong.
😂😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 23, 2021, 05:32:43 AM
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2021/10/22/michigan-adds-7-505-cases-118-deaths-covid-19-over-two-days/6124956001/?utm_source=detroitnews-Daily%20Briefing&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily_briefing&utm_term=list_article_thumb&utm_content=1008DN-E-NLETTER65

Unfortunately there are still places where the spikes are upward and not positive.  

In Michigan, Sister in law and one of her kids have it.  ( not vaccinated despite my and others best efforts) Appear to have gotten it at a HS Football game.  

Fortunately- so far, flu- like symptoms and not worse, although predictably, symptoms worse in the adult versus child.  Doctor prescribed multi clonal antibodies ( Regeneron) early so that appears to be substantial in reducing severity of symptoms.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 23, 2021, 10:31:17 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/t11yLUG.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/9jRS82T.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on October 23, 2021, 04:40:28 PM
NY Times reported that over 900,000 children had been hospitalized with COVID since the start of the pandemic. The actual number? 63,000. 

The lie was so bad that when NY Times got caught exaggerating child hospitalization cases by at least 837,000 they had to issue a retraction.

https://www.yahoo.com/now/york-times-retracts-massive-exaggeration-163906675.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 25, 2021, 02:32:01 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 20, 2021, 01:40:04 PM
I'll be at Circuit of the Americas this weekend with 300,000 other people.  I'll let you know how many masks I count. ;)


Well it took more than one hand, but I'd say it was fewer than 50, in crowds over 300,000 for the whole weekend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 25, 2021, 02:47:02 PM
Handing out Tito's patches ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 25, 2021, 02:48:16 PM
There might have been some Tito's consumed over the course of the weekend.  Goes great with OJ...

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 25, 2021, 05:39:29 PM
It seems largely out of the news now, aside from some stuff about child vaccines.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on October 25, 2021, 05:46:36 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 25, 2021, 02:32:01 PM
Well it took more than one hand, but I'd say it was fewer than 50, in crowds over 300,000 for the whole weekend.

Was there as well for the Sunday race, with my mask, but only to wear when it was required aboard the shuttle buses. 1 out of 50 wearing masks is exactly my observational estimate as well, amongst the 140,000 Sunday-only attendees. And of those 1 out of 50 I half wonder whether it was as a way to keep the sun off their face. (Great event, btw! Brother is a big Max Verstappen fan and i was glad to buy him some gear.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2021, 08:27:54 AM
Moderna boosters for me and Mrs847 are set for Friday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: TyphonInc on October 27, 2021, 08:44:06 AM
I got my 3rd shot last week. *shrug* When can we just bundle with the flu shot?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2021, 08:58:14 AM
Moderna is working on a bundle, apparently.

I'd rather not. Flu shots screw me up sometimes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 27, 2021, 09:04:02 AM
We went to CVS to get both flu and the third shot at the same time, but two shots.  My arm was slightly sore, no other after effects at all, not even fatigue.  The shooter told me folks had fewer reactions to shot 3.

I hope the flu shot is on  target again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 27, 2021, 09:48:06 AM
I did the flu shot back in Sept.

Not sure what current guidance is for Moderna booster, for people that don't have complicating risk factors?  I'm at about 5 months out right now, from my second.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2021, 09:53:09 AM
Quote from: utee94 on October 27, 2021, 09:48:06 AM
I did the flu shot back in Sept.

Not sure what current guidance is for Moderna booster, for people that don't have complicating risk factors?  I'm at about 5 months out right now, from my second.
Nobody asked us any questions about conditions. Our last dose was 4/21.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 27, 2021, 09:59:53 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2021, 09:53:09 AM
Nobody asked us any questions about conditions. Our last dose was 4/21.

I don't feel any need to "get away with it" and avoid questions.  I'll go, when the guidance indicates I should.  The guidance is based on THE SCIENCE, so I'm good with following that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on October 27, 2021, 10:01:22 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on October 22, 2021, 11:24:00 AM
That Twitter feed you're citing looks more like a misinformation shill than a legitimate source. Anything from there should be treated as false unless and until proven otherwise.


Read the linked report (or at least check the tables on pages 19 – 20). It’s a formal report issued by the UK’s NHS system. Granted the deaths (1613 Vaccinated Vs 722 Unvaccinated) aren’t broken down according to how many were sampled from each group, which could sway the percentages of representation.

When it comes to bastardizing data, the anti-intellectualism noticeable elsewhere on the internet usually recycles the following pattern:

-Demand data
-Put the burden on everyone else to retrieve data
-Dismiss data as conspiracy or misinformation when it’s finally posted and doesn’t agree with assumption
-Still claim that science is on your side
-Repeat

It’s the type of ingrown logic endemic to underfunding the public education system for over forty years.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 27, 2021, 10:03:23 AM
Here's what I found so far:

Moderna's booster is available to the same groups that qualify for Pfizer's shot, including: Adults 65 and up and residents in long-term care facilities. People 18-64 years old with underlying medical conditions that put them at risk for severe COVID-19

I am none of those things.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 27, 2021, 10:08:38 AM
I can wait
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 27, 2021, 10:18:43 AM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have updated their guidance for people who are moderately or severely immunocompromised. Those who have already received a third full dose of any mRNA vaccine may now get a fourth "booster" shot — classified as a partial dose.

https://khn.org/morning-breakout/cdc-says-people-who-are-immunocompromised-can-get-fourth-covid-shot/ (https://khn.org/morning-breakout/cdc-says-people-who-are-immunocompromised-can-get-fourth-covid-shot/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 27, 2021, 10:21:05 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on October 27, 2021, 10:18:43 AM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have updated their guidance for people who are moderately or severely immunocompromised. Those who have already received a third full dose of any mRNA vaccine may now get a fourth "booster" shot — classified as a partial dose.

https://khn.org/morning-breakout/cdc-says-people-who-are-immunocompromised-can-get-fourth-covid-shot/ (https://khn.org/morning-breakout/cdc-says-people-who-are-immunocompromised-can-get-fourth-covid-shot/)
Yeah, immunocompromised folks should definitely consider things closely.  The problem for them is less about waning immunity over time, and more about generating a sufficient immune response in the first place. 

They should be talking very closely with their doctors regularly, about their status and any potential updates.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2021, 10:35:14 AM
Quote from: utee94 on October 27, 2021, 09:59:53 AM
I don't feel any need to "get away with it" and avoid questions.  I'll go, when the guidance indicates I should.  The guidance is based on THE SCIENCE, so I'm good with following that.

Well, you're not leaving for Chicago next week, then to Europe, nor will you be on a cruise ship for 12 days afterward.

MY science wins here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 27, 2021, 10:40:34 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2021, 10:35:14 AM
Well, you're not leaving for Chicago next week, then to Europe, nor will you be on a cruise ship for 12 days afterward.

MY science wins here.
I just spent two of the past three weekends amongst 250,000 people at the State Fair of Texas, and amongst 350,000 people at the United States Grand Prix.

The science is the science.  The epidemiologists say that without underlying risk factors, your initial vaccine dosing provides excellent coverage against severe illness, hospitalization, and death.

You're free to do what you like of course, but I'm in no rush to run out and acquire medicine that nobody is recommending I take.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: RestingB!tchFace on October 27, 2021, 10:54:09 AM
DON'T GET THE VACCINE!!!




I'm just kidding.  Please do it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 27, 2021, 10:55:51 AM
Quote from: RestingB!tchFace on October 27, 2021, 10:54:09 AM
DON'T GET THE VACCINE!!!




I'm just kidding.  Please do it.
Well now there's more.

There's the vaccine, which everyone should get, for sure.

And then there's the booster, which you should certainly get if you fall into the high risk categories, or if your doctor recommends it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2021, 11:39:16 AM
Well, I think a lot of what guides this thing is science.

Political science. Not going into that.

My thinking:

Age is an arbitrary number. Why 65? Why not 50?

Nobody will explain that.

Regardless, I'll be in 4 different countries, with who knows what variants, and then on a cruise ship, with who knows whose from where or where they've been.

Science.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 27, 2021, 11:44:38 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2021, 11:39:16 AM
Well, I think a lot of what guides this thing is science.

Political science. Not going into that.

My thinking:

Age is an arbitrary number. Why 65? Why not 50?

Nobody will explain that.

Regardless, I'll be in 4 different countries, with who knows what variants, and then on a cruise ship, with who knows whose from where or where they've been.

Science.
That's personal risk, not science.

65 is the age because that's where the data leads.  It's a bell curve and the tail falls off below 65.  Mean, standard deviation, etc.  

Science. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2021, 11:55:40 AM
64 is the same as 65 is the same as 66. 65 is arbitrary.

So is 12. So is 18.

It's silliness.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 27, 2021, 12:03:45 PM
Age groups are obviously somewhat arbitrary if you look at a year or so.  Why should an 18 year old be able to vote, and not a 17?  

Why can I get SS at 66 and not 65?  Or 70?  There is at least some basis for that (which needs adjusting).

I'd start SS benefits at expected age of death - 10 or so, graduated into the system.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 27, 2021, 12:08:30 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2021, 11:55:40 AM
64 is the same as 65 is the same as 66. 65 is arbitrary.

So is 12. So is 18.

It's silliness.
But I mean, it's not though.  65 is the result of the normal distribution, its mean, and its standard deviation.  It really doesn't get any more scientific than that.  I don't know what else to tell you.

It's the exact same thing as "6 feet."  It doesn't mean you're completely safe from breathing exhaled coronavirus at > 6 ft, nor does it mean you're guaranteed to inhale it at < 6 ft.  It's a simple statistical exercise.  We rely on this type of analysis to determine safety margins every single day, in all facets of life.

Edit: But again, I'm not saying you SHOULDN'T get the booster, based on your own personal views of risk.  There's probably not much of a down side to it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 27, 2021, 01:53:50 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2021, 11:39:16 AM
Well, I think a lot of what guides this thing is science.

Political science. Not going into that.

My thinking:

Age is an arbitrary number. Why 65? Why not 50?

Nobody will explain that.

Regardless, I'll be in 4 different countries, with who knows what variants, and then on a cruise ship, with who knows whose from where or where they've been.

Science.
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2021, 11:55:40 AM
64 is the same as 65 is the same as 66. 65 is arbitrary.

So is 12. So is 18.

It's silliness.
Yes, it's arbitrary. But it's also not. 

We routinely break things into groups. 65 is a common one because it's "retirement" age. For health purposes we often use 50-64 and 40-49 because those age ranges tend to have similar health problems, yet we then treat 18-39, a 21 year gap, as a single group because those ages typically have very few age-related health issues at all, so they fit into one statistical group easily. And anything <18 is usually treated much differently because testing of medication/vaccine/etc for someone who is still in their prime growth stage may have different effects than it does for someone fully grown, and also because they're minors and not legally given responsibility for themselves, so they're treated different. 

Obviously these are big categories that have levels of arbitrariness. If you're 64, does that mean that you should always listen to the 50-64 recommendation if you're in particularly poor health and your general level of health is closer to that of a 75 year old? If you're 66, does that mean you should always listen to the 65+ recommendations if you're fit, healthy, and have no chronic conditions? Obviously you have to take control of your own health. 

But if the official recommendation is that people 65+, people who are immunocompromised or have significant comorbidities get the booster, I think that as a relatively healthy and fit 43 year old, I don't see any particular reason I'd need it. I might want it if I were 64 and healthy. But not really that important to me at 43. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on October 27, 2021, 11:25:40 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 27, 2021, 09:59:53 AM
I don't feel any need to "get away with it" and avoid questions.  I'll go, when the guidance indicates I should.  The guidance is based on THE SCIENCE, so I'm good with following that.

I had a friend go and claim a co-morbidity. 

As we've discussed, all but the most slender on this board likely qualify. (I've not gone, though I need the flu shot since I get some money for it)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on October 28, 2021, 07:28:10 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on October 27, 2021, 01:53:50 PM
Yes, it's arbitrary. But it's also not.

We routinely break things into groups. 65 is a common one because it's "retirement" age.
But it is - the virus doesn't give a flying fook.Science for the sake of research and pitch points picked that number.Maybe because some people start letting themseves go if they retire then and expose themselves to different places like auto races or cruises ships to multiple places for say out of boredom or entertainment
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2021, 07:51:35 AM
I have a history of bronchial infections (used to get 2-3 times per year - none since having Covid) and pneumonia (4 times total - been 6 years).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2021, 07:56:23 AM
These age groups are really traditional, 5-11, 12-17, those make some sense, and then 18-40whatever or 65, and 65+.  I imagine the studies break the data out that way.

We could do 66+ or 64+ and it wouldn't matter much.  I guess at 65 one is considered "old".  I'm in better shape right now than I was ten years ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 28, 2021, 10:26:32 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2021, 07:51:35 AM
I have a history of bronchial infections (used to get 2-3 times per year - none since having Covid) and pneumonia (4 times total - been 6 years).
And I'd guess that is, even if not officially listed as such, the sort of health history that would make someone under 65 want the booster despite the lack of an official recommendation that it's necessary. 

I'm not saying that the recommendation that people 65 and over get the booster means that we should make it illegal for a 64 year old to get one. That'd be daft. Health care is individual.

I am saying that there is value in identifying groups more likely to be high risk or low risk as groups, so typical people in those groups can identify relative risk. If you're atypical, i.e. if you have a propensity to have bronchial infections or pneumonia, then you need to substitute your own judgement and the recommendation of your own primary care physician who is familiar with your health history, rather than blindly following a recommendation. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2021, 10:27:49 AM
My body, my choice.


;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2021, 01:56:54 PM
We do have SCOTUS precedents for mandatory vaccinations back in 1906 or so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 28, 2021, 02:27:19 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2021, 01:56:54 PM
We do have SCOTUS precedents for mandatory vaccinations back in 1906 or so.
we also have SCOTUS precedents for slavery if you go back far enough

I dont think todays SCOTUS would favor mandatory vaccinations in the situation we find ourselves today
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2021, 02:32:06 PM
Old precedents may have been traversed by Amendments.  But old precedents not still carry some weight, stare decisis.

I have no idea how the current SCOTUS would rule on mandated vaccinations, it might depend on some technicality.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 28, 2021, 02:39:56 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2021, 10:27:49 AM
My body, my choice.


;)
Amen, brutha!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on October 28, 2021, 02:54:16 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2021, 02:32:06 PM
Old precedents may have been traversed by Amendments.  But old precedents not still carry some weight, stare decisis.

I have no idea how the current SCOTUS would rule on mandated vaccinations, it might depend on some technicality.
pretty hard to rule against freedom
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on October 28, 2021, 09:32:57 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2021, 02:32:06 PM
I have no idea how the current SCOTUS would rule on mandated vaccinations, it might depend on some technicality.
This.  They would avoid it at all costs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on October 29, 2021, 02:12:08 AM
We have been trying to get my dad in AZ transferred from a stand alone ER to a hospital since about 5 p.m. central time. Eight hours later he is approved to go 70-miles away. No room in Tucson, tonight. Spread of COVID is pretty strong there, and in Iowa very strong here, too. Nationwide going down, but we are peaking in Iowa and AZ.

He is non-COVID.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 29, 2021, 07:54:58 AM
Hospitals around here are also pretty busy, but not with Covid. It's other stuff, mostly caused by people neglecting their health for almost two years.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 29, 2021, 08:25:42 AM
This is very interesting.

How Bad Is Delta Variant? Vaccinated, Unvaccinated People Can Spread It: Study - Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-28/getting-vaccinated-doesn-t-stop-people-from-spreading-delta?utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 29, 2021, 08:41:30 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on October 29, 2021, 02:12:08 AM
We have been trying to get my dad in AZ transferred from a stand alone ER to a hospital since about 5 p.m. central time. Eight hours later he is approved to go 70-miles away. No room in Tucson, tonight. Spread of COVID is pretty strong there, and in Iowa very strong here, too. Nationwide going down, but we are peaking in Iowa and AZ.

He is non-COVID.
Woodbury County (Sioux City) seems to have peaked 3-4 weeks ago - fortunately


https://iowacovid19tracker.org/woodbury-county/ (https://iowacovid19tracker.org/woodbury-county/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 29, 2021, 09:25:01 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 29, 2021, 08:25:42 AM
This is very interesting.

How Bad Is Delta Variant? Vaccinated, Unvaccinated People Can Spread It: Study - Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-28/getting-vaccinated-doesn-t-stop-people-from-spreading-delta?utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social)


For sure.  I don't think there's anything new here that hasn't already been determined, or at least speculated from reasonable interpretation of ongoing events.  But I do want to see more studies verifying.

The virus and especially Delta variant can infect vaccinated individuals, and can be transmitted by vaccinated individuals.  But the cases for vaccinated individuals are milder in symptoms and shorter in duration.

Like I've said before, we need to stop worrying about infection/case rates, and focus on actual sickness.  The virus is becoming endemic, and will be with us forever.  We've projected that this would happen for well over a year now.

We need to stop suggesting to people to become vaccinated to help with herd immunity, and change the focus entirely to: "Getting the vaccine goes a long way toward keeping you out of the hospital."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2021, 09:34:03 AM
That doesn't play well with parents of kids being asked to vaccinated them in many cases.  They see that kids don't get sick often, and don't realize they can be spreaders.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on October 29, 2021, 09:39:27 AM
Delta variant does seem to be sending more children to the hospital

that would be enough to motivate me as a parent
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 29, 2021, 09:40:13 AM
Kids can be spreaders with or without the vax. Covid don't care.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 29, 2021, 09:42:48 AM
Everybody's a spreader at this point.  And will be, forever.  We'll all get infected by the virus over the next 5-10 years.  Probably multiple times.  Most of us won't even know we had it.

Get the vax for your own health.  Get your kids vaccinated for theirs.

People don't get the flu shot because they're trying to help prevent the spread-- they get the flu shot because they don't want to get the flu.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on October 29, 2021, 12:02:02 PM
Globally reported COVID deaths 5.0 Million:

(https://i.imgur.com/LPMg1nL.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 29, 2021, 04:53:13 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/u5P0oy4.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 30, 2021, 08:24:11 AM
Got the booster. They gave us Pfizer even though we had Moderna for the first two.

I guess that's good?

No issues. Arm not sore either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 30, 2021, 09:03:48 AM
Looks like it's "over" down here.

(https://i.imgur.com/2HrRI3h.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on October 30, 2021, 10:12:06 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 28, 2021, 02:27:19 PM
I dont think todays SCOTUS would favor mandatory vaccinations in the situation we find ourselves today
https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1454201781253246985?s=20

Supreme Court declines to block Maine vaccine mandate.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on October 30, 2021, 10:14:02 AM
Got the word yesterday my company has rescinded the mask mandate again due to low levels in our area. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 30, 2021, 10:15:51 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 30, 2021, 08:24:11 AM
Got the booster. They gave us Pfizer even though we had Moderna for the first two.

I guess that's good?

No issues. Arm not sore either.

Seems like latest guidance is you can mix and match.  Not sure there are any decent studies yet, but the speculation is that mixing could provide broader protection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 01, 2021, 12:16:01 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 29, 2021, 08:25:42 AM
This is very interesting.

How Bad Is Delta Variant? Vaccinated, Unvaccinated People Can Spread It: Study - Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-28/getting-vaccinated-doesn-t-stop-people-from-spreading-delta?utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social)
which is why I've been saying for awhile now that these vaccine mandates are pointless. this thing is not going away- period- these vaccines DO NOT stop the spread.

these vaccines are ineffective at stopping spread as they are imperfect, leaky vaccines- therefore essentially worthless if you ask me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 01, 2021, 12:16:32 PM
Quote from: utee94 on October 29, 2021, 09:25:01 AM
For sure.  I don't think there's anything new here that hasn't already been determined, or at least speculated from reasonable interpretation of ongoing events.  But I do want to see more studies verifying.

The virus and especially Delta variant can infect vaccinated individuals, and can be transmitted by vaccinated individuals.  But the cases for vaccinated individuals are milder in symptoms and shorter in duration.

Like I've said before, we need to stop worrying about infection/case rates, and focus on actual sickness.  The virus is becoming endemic, and will be with us forever.  We've projected that this would happen for well over a year now.

We need to stop suggesting to people to become vaccinated to help with herd immunity, and change the focus entirely to: "Getting the vaccine goes a long way toward keeping you out of the hospital."
yup.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 01, 2021, 12:18:48 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 29, 2021, 09:34:03 AM
That doesn't play well with parents of kids being asked to vaccinated them in many cases.  They see that kids don't get sick often, and don't realize they can be spreaders.
kids will be spreaders regardless of vaccination status. how the vaccines will affect their bodies is still an unknown. these vaccine will prevent serious symptoms- at best. the risk of children getting seriously ill or being hospitalized by COVID is virtually non-existent. therefore it makes ZERO sense to force them to be vaccinated if you ask me. 

Nordic countries have already flat out banned/pulled Moderna and Pfizer vaccines from being used on children due to high rates of myocarditis induced by these vaccines. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2021, 12:20:00 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on November 01, 2021, 12:18:48 PM
Nordic countries have already flat out banned/pulled Moderna and Pfizer vaccines from being used on children due to high rates of myocarditis induced by these vaccines.
They had already approved it and then reversed course?  I had not seen that news.

Sweden, Denmark pause Moderna COVID-19 vaccine for younger age groups | Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/sweden-pauses-use-moderna-covid-vaccine-cites-rare-side-effects-2021-10-06/)

Looks like Modera only
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 01, 2021, 12:21:00 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 29, 2021, 09:40:13 AM
Kids can be spreaders with or without the vax. Covid don't care.
which is why it makes zero sense to force vaccine on them. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 01, 2021, 12:22:21 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 01, 2021, 12:20:00 PM
They had already approved it and then reversed course?  I had not seen that news.
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/sweden-pauses-use-moderna-covid-vaccine-cites-rare-side-effects-2021-10-06/

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/08/nordic-countries-are-restricting-the-use-of-modernas-covid-vaccine.html

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finland-pauses-use-moderna-covid-19-vaccine-young-men-2021-10-07/

https://www.thesuburban.com/news/covid_19/five-scandinavian-countries-limit-or-halt-moderna/article_7ac39fac-fae7-5937-acd1-6f94ac576e39.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2021, 12:24:21 PM
Moderna was paused, for teens, as a precaution, Pfizer apparently is still being used.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2021, 12:26:36 PM
FDA Delays Decision on Moderna COVID Vaccine for Younger Teens | Health News | US News (https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-11-01/fda-delays-decision-on-moderna-covid-vaccine-for-younger-teens)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 01, 2021, 12:37:49 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 01, 2021, 12:26:36 PM
FDA Delays Decision on Moderna COVID Vaccine for Younger Teens | Health News | US News (https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-11-01/fda-delays-decision-on-moderna-covid-vaccine-for-younger-teens)
children literally do not need this vaccine. stop trying to make them take it. glad the FDA delayed but would be more glad if they denied moderna for use in children.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2021, 12:42:18 PM
Pfizer is still a go.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 01, 2021, 12:45:41 PM
it's my understanding that the delta variant has put more children in the hospital lately

so, the vaccine may be useful to some
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 01, 2021, 02:59:11 PM
Companies with at least 100 workers will be required to give employees paid time off to get vaccinated against COVID-19 and paid sick leave if they have side effects from the shots.

https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2021-11-01/us-will-make-large-firms-give-paid-time-off-for-vaccinations (https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2021-11-01/us-will-make-large-firms-give-paid-time-off-for-vaccinations)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2021, 03:02:55 PM
I really wonder about companies with say 200 employees where 15% refuse the vaccine and/or testing.  I think they cook the books.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 01, 2021, 04:01:23 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 01, 2021, 12:45:41 PM
it's my understanding that the delta variant has put more children in the hospital lately

so, the vaccine may be useful to some
We got our kids vaxed without hesitation.  It's not about preventing the spread, it's about minimizing the effects.  The vaccines are proven through peer-reviewed studies to be effective at that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 01, 2021, 04:11:10 PM
I would guess the vax is also at least a little bit useful to preventing spread
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 01, 2021, 04:13:31 PM
Was hanging out with my brother [he's a pilot for United] on Saturday and I asked him about the Southwest thing. He had actually just been talking to a pilot for Southwest and they talked about it.

Apparently it was not some big "sick-out" protest. There were some pilots who apparently knew that when this mandate came through would be out of a job, and a lot of those pilots that had sick time available burned through it, which is probably where the rumor that it was a big "sick-out" protest came from.

From what he's said, it's mostly structural issues that all kinda bubbled up at the same time. Southwest was already understaffed and having staffing problems trying to come back from the downturn during COVID. 

He did say it wasn't weather. That was [as mentioned by others here] just a cover story. But it was covering for the fact that they're having staffing problems, not that they had a vaccine protest in their work force. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 01, 2021, 04:14:34 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 01, 2021, 04:11:10 PM
I would guess the vax is also at least a little bit useful to preventing spread
Yeah, it's that, too.  But at this point, the issue should be protecting yourself and your loved ones, from the worst symptoms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 01, 2021, 04:16:40 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 01, 2021, 04:13:31 PM
Was hanging out with my brother [he's a pilot for United] on Saturday and I asked him about the Southwest thing. He had actually just been talking to a pilot for Southwest and they talked about it.

Apparently it was not some big "sick-out" protest. There were some pilots who apparently knew that when this mandate came through would be out of a job, and a lot of those pilots that had sick time available burned through it, which is probably where the rumor that it was a big "sick-out" protest came from.

From what he's said, it's mostly structural issues that all kinda bubbled up at the same time. Southwest was already understaffed and having staffing problems trying to come back from the downturn during COVID.

He did say it wasn't weather. That was [as mentioned by others here] just a cover story. But it was covering for the fact that they're having staffing problems, not that they had a vaccine protest in their work force.

A good friend of mine has been a flight attendant for Southwest for over 20 years.  She was furloughed or whatever during the early part of the pandemic, and then decided she just didn't want to go back.  She said a lot of her friends in the company decided the same.

She'd been doing real estate part time anyway, for many years, so now that's her full time gig.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 01, 2021, 04:46:29 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 01, 2021, 04:13:31 PM
Was hanging out with my brother [he's a pilot for United] on Saturday and I asked him about the Southwest thing. He had actually just been talking to a pilot for Southwest and they talked about it.
did he get the vax?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 01, 2021, 04:57:36 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 01, 2021, 04:46:29 PM
did he get the vax?
Yeah, he finally relented. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 01, 2021, 04:58:27 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on November 01, 2021, 12:18:48 PM
Nordic countries have already flat out banned/pulled Moderna and Pfizer vaccines from being used on children due to high rates of myocarditis induced by these vaccines.
Mdot - do you have a link? As I'd like see what they have to say
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 01, 2021, 05:02:48 PM
Mdot posted multiple links up thread
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 02, 2021, 11:48:51 AM
Nearly 90 NYPD officers forced to go on leave over vaccine mandate | TheHill (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/579596-nearly-90-nypd-officers-forced-to-go-on-leave-over-vaccine-mandate)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 02, 2021, 01:38:08 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 02, 2021, 11:48:51 AM
Nearly 90 NYPD officers forced to go on leave over vaccine mandate | TheHill (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/579596-nearly-90-nypd-officers-forced-to-go-on-leave-over-vaccine-mandate)
Out of how many who were whining about it? Much sound and fury but very little substance.

Also relevant to this discussion is that COVID-19 is the leading killer of law enforcement officers in the US in both 2020 and 2021.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 02, 2021, 01:44:44 PM
90 who probably have been hating their job for the past year or many much longer

looking for an excuse to go on leave
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 02, 2021, 03:29:36 PM
I'd guess, 90 is a quarter of a percent apparently.  I'd bet many more threatened and caved.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 02, 2021, 03:52:48 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 02, 2021, 03:29:36 PM
I'd guess, 90 is a quarter of a percent apparently.  I'd bet many more threatened and caved.
People talk a big game until their paycheck is on the line...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 02, 2021, 04:17:27 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 02, 2021, 03:52:48 PM
People talk a big game until their paycheck is on the line...
Funny attitude.   

Thousands of employees have quit over this.   Probably their loss in the end, but it has absolutely impacted the medical field, travel and first responder services in a a major way in some places. And the labor market in many other ways.  

I find it humorous to pretend is hasn’t.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 02, 2021, 04:19:27 PM
I think his point is that a lot of folks threatened to quit and didn't.  It's not to say many did not quit, but more claimed they would.  I think that is the case.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 02, 2021, 04:27:40 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 02, 2021, 04:19:27 PM
I think his point is that a lot of folks threatened to quit and didn't.  It's not to say many did not quit, but more claimed they would.  I think that is the case.
Yes.  I get that.  But the “not much substance” and “ talk a big game” are off the mark.  

There are a lot of people who feel they are being asked to do something that no one has a right to force on them.  And they are willing to look for other employment to back it up. 

just moments ago on the local news they’re talking about staffing crisis here in Florida in some hospitals and it’s not because the hospitals have Covid patients anymore, it’s because substantial numbers of people quit over the vaccine mandate.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 02, 2021, 04:53:47 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 02, 2021, 04:17:27 PM
Funny attitude. 

Thousands of employees have quit over this.  Probably their loss in the end, but it has absolutely impacted the medical field, travel and first responder services in a a major way in some places. And the labor market in many other ways. 

I find it humorous to pretend is hasn’t. 
Oh, certainly some have. I wasn't trying to say they haven't. 

I'm saying that the number of people who ACTUALLY lost their job over this is a small number compared to those who boasted they WOULD give up their job. 

As discussed upthread, my brother is one. He was talking a big game, but in the end, resisting the vaccine out of principle wasn't as important as providing for his wife and son. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on November 02, 2021, 05:09:42 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on November 02, 2021, 01:38:08 PM
Out of how many who were whining about it? Much sound and fury but very little substance.

Also relevant to this discussion is that COVID-19 is the leading killer of law enforcement officers in the US in both 2020 and 2021.
Apparently a lot are holding out hope on exemptions. Less than promised, but still a lot. 

Apparently some folks are falling back on Catholicism? Though the luck with it seems mixed at best. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on November 02, 2021, 05:17:54 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 02, 2021, 04:27:40 PM


There are a lot of people who feel they are being asked to do something that no one has a right to force on them.  And they are willing to look for other employment to back it up.
It’s interesting how this is tightly tied to this specific vaccine. Like, there are probably some vaccines we could mostly agree you should have to have to work in certain professions (a nurse who can get smallpox seems like a real worry).

Down the road, I wonder about the fallout. Like, everyone of us is probably vaxxed up to the hilt. With the way these discussions are going, to more folks opt out of giving their kids more traditionally accepted vaccines?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 02, 2021, 05:35:00 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on November 02, 2021, 05:17:54 PM
It’s interesting how this is tightly tied to this specific vaccine. Like, there are probably some vaccines we could mostly agree you should have to have to work in certain professions (a nurse who can get smallpox seems like a real worry).

Down the road, I wonder about the fallout. Like, everyone of us is probably vaxxed up to the hilt. With the way these discussions are going, to more folks opt out of giving their kids more traditionally accepted vaccines?
Good question.  Just for clarity- I don’t have strong opinions About this. I guess I would lean towards believing that an employer has the right to require it from their employees. But I kind of lean against feeling like the government or any branch of the government has the right to mandate it to someone who is not their employee
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 02, 2021, 07:51:09 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 02, 2021, 04:17:27 PM
Funny attitude. 

Thousands of employees have quit over this.  Probably their loss in the end, but it has absolutely impacted the medical field, travel and first responder services in a a major way in some places. And the labor market in many other ways. 

I find it humorous to pretend is hasn’t. 
depends on your definition of major way

hospitals, airlines, first responders haven't shut down and caused the issues that the Pandemic caused a year ago
I find i humorous to pretend this has caused a big issue
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 02, 2021, 08:09:13 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 02, 2021, 07:51:09 PM
depends on your definition of major way

hospitals, airlines, first responders haven't shut down and caused the issues that the Pandemic caused a year ago
I find i humorous to pretend this has caused a big issue
https://www.foxnews.com/us/austin-burglary-more-police

I am sure you do find it humorous.  I could post hundreds of these stories.  But your in either the denial camp or the it doesn’t affect me camp 

enjoy your laughter.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 02, 2021, 08:11:07 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 02, 2021, 07:51:09 PM
depends on your definition of major way

hospitals, airlines, first responders haven't shut down and caused the issues that the Pandemic caused a year ago
I find i humorous to pretend this has caused a big issue
I will add, Yours is a total false equivalency.

it’s almost off-topic. You’re comparing what was caused to be shut down because of a pandemic we could not control to a vaccine mandate that is 100% human being caused.  Kind of weird actually
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 02, 2021, 08:20:56 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 02, 2021, 08:09:13 PM
https://www.foxnews.com/us/austin-burglary-more-police

I am sure you do find it humorous.  I could post hundreds of these stories.  But your in either the denial camp or the it doesn’t affect me camp

enjoy your laughter. 
first of all, you laughed first
2nd, to equate shoplifting to almost anything life threatening is  silly
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 02, 2021, 08:31:49 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 02, 2021, 08:20:56 PM
first of all, you laughed first
2nd, to equate shoplifting to almost anything life threatening is  silly
So your ok with shoplifting being let go, and ok with the shoplifter attacking the business owner?
your ok with the PD telling the community not to call if it is not life threatening?
your ok with having your flight cancelled close to flight time?
your ok with your medical procedure being moved to a far away hospital because your local one has a huge staff shortages?  

these are the “ nothings” happening  more than you either know, or want to admit. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 02, 2021, 09:18:57 PM
Guys this isn't productive and it's not really all that coronavirus related.

If you want to argue the politics of mandates, do it elsewhere.

Thank You For Your Support.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 02, 2021, 09:22:19 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 02, 2021, 08:31:49 PM
So your ok with shoplifting being let go, and ok with the shoplifter attacking the business owner?
your ok with the PD telling the community not to call if it is not life threatening?
your ok with having your flight cancelled close to flight time?
your ok with your medical procedure being moved to a far away hospital because your local one has a huge staff shortages? 

these are the “ nothings” happening  more than you either know, or want to admit.

nope. see my posts about sending in the national guard to downtown Chicago for violent crimes
I'm not ok with any of these things, but.............
Probably their loss in the end, but it has absolutely impacted the medical field, travel and first responder services in a a major way in some places. And the labor market in many other ways. 


In your words, probably their loss in the end.
In my definition, probably not a major thing
we keep moving forward, the medical field, travel and first responders and all others
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 02, 2021, 09:23:22 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 02, 2021, 09:18:57 PM
Guys this isn't productive and it's not really all that coronavirus related.

If you want to argue the politics of mandates, do it elsewhere.

Thank You For Your Support.

agreed it's not productive, but politics hasn't been mentioned by either of us
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 02, 2021, 09:26:16 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 02, 2021, 09:23:22 PM
agreed it's not productive, but politics hasn't been mentioned by either of us

You're discussing the politics of mandates.  It's not partisan but it's still political and not really within the domain of this thread.

It's better discussed elsewhere.

Thank You For Your Support.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 02, 2021, 09:27:04 PM
fine with me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 02, 2021, 09:34:42 PM
I don’t feel politics was even remotely discussed, or even inferred. And completely civil as well.  

Feels like goalposts moving again    

But…… as you wish.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 02, 2021, 09:41:11 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 02, 2021, 09:34:42 PM
I don’t feel politics was even remotely discussed, or even inferred. And completely civil as well. 

Feels like goalposts moving again   

But…… as you wish. 
Give me a break.  Do you think we can't see the agendas you're driving with your comments that are completely unrelated to the actual CORONAVIRUS which is the topic of this thread????

You two are bringing up all sorts of unrelated topics like shoplifters and the national guard in Chicago.

There are plenty of places to discuss that stuff.  This thread isn't the place.

Just stahp it.  You're not fooling anyone.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 02, 2021, 09:51:04 PM
I felt the discussion was regarding vax mandates and the effect of individual's rights to oppose those mandates, but obviously this thread title doesn't include Vaccines or mandates, so I'm happy to take the discussion elsewhere  or simply drop it

wasn't about shoplifters or the national guard or politics in my view, but my view it's the only view 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 02, 2021, 09:52:55 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 02, 2021, 09:51:04 PM
I felt the discussion was regarding vax mandates and the effect of individual's rights to oppose those mandates, but obviously this thread title doesn't include Vaccines or mandates, so I'm happy to take the discussion elsewhere  or simply drop it

wasn't about shoplifters or the national guard or politics in my view, but my view it's the only view
I hear you, and yet it WAS about shoplifters and the national guard.  Those are your very quotes. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 02, 2021, 09:55:22 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 02, 2021, 09:41:11 PM
Give me a break.  Do you think we can't see the agendas you're driving with your comments that are completely unrelated to the actual CORONAVIRUS which is the topic of this thread????

You two are bringing up all sorts of unrelated topics like shoplifters and the national guard in Chicago.

There are plenty of places to discuss that stuff.  This thread isn't the place.

Just stahp it.  You're not fooling anyone.
Ok.  Vaccines and related won’t be discussed here any longer I take it. 

That was the root post from CD which branched off into this sub conversation 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 02, 2021, 09:55:28 PM
Anyway, I think you guys should know-- should be able to figure out by now-- when you're headed out of bounds.

I think it's pretty obvious at this point, where the actual value in this thread can be found, and on the flipside, when the discussion is getting political and non-productive.

You're all smart people.  

Mostly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 02, 2021, 09:56:42 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 02, 2021, 09:55:22 PM
Ok.  Vaccines and related won’t be discussed here any longer I take it.

That was the root post from CD which branched off into this sub conversation
Vaccine efficacy and so forth?  Sure.  Knock yourself out.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 02, 2021, 10:44:34 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 02, 2021, 09:55:28 PM
You're all smart people. 

Mostly.
mostly
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on November 02, 2021, 11:45:37 PM
I always wonder if in the distant future our descendants will dig up this old thread from some archived corner of the internet on whatever version of the way back machine they have in the year 2300 and dissect all the comments and basically do a kind of  archaeological Digital dig about this pandemic the way our generation sifts through old newspapers and letters and such. 

That is, if it survives The Blackout. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2021, 10:22:23 AM
My fault.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 03, 2021, 01:02:01 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 03, 2021, 10:22:23 AM
My fault.

You owe me a case of French Bordeaux!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 03, 2021, 01:09:47 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 02, 2021, 09:56:42 PM
Vaccine efficacy and so forth?  Sure.  Knock yourself out.
I think we can quite frankly make the leap from discussing vaccines to discussing vaccine mandates and their effects on employment. We seemed to handle that with the airline questions successfully. I think we can point out that there may be some impact on the world supply chain issues we've been seeing that were due to COVID as well, and those are fair game. 

However, when we accuse each other of being pro-shoplifting or start discussing the need for the national guard to handle violence in Chicago, I think that's where things go too far. 

At this time, employment reductions due to resistance to vaccination appears to be in the "oh, that's interesting and some effects are mildly annoying" level and not in the "it's resulting in a complete breakdown of society because nobody is working" level. That's hyperbole.

So let's discuss real effects, and tamp down the hyperbole. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 03, 2021, 01:20:33 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 03, 2021, 01:09:47 PM
I think we can quite frankly make the leap from discussing vaccines to discussing vaccine mandates and their effects on employment. We seemed to handle that with the airline questions successfully. I think we can point out that there may be some impact on the world supply chain issues we've been seeing that were due to COVID as well, and those are fair game.

However, when we accuse each other of being pro-shoplifting or start discussing the need for the national guard to handle violence in Chicago, I think that's where things go too far.

At this time, employment reductions due to resistance to vaccination appears to be in the "oh, that's interesting and some effects are mildly annoying" level and not in the "it's resulting in a complete breakdown of society because nobody is working" level. That's hyperbole.

So let's discuss real effects, and tamp down the hyperbole.

The problem is, this is where it inevitably goes.

I looked back over the discussion from last night, thinking I might have been a little quick on the draw, but am now convinced that shutting down that line of discussion was the correct action.

It falls under the category heading of, "This is why we can't have nice things."

Somebody invariably takes it too far.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 03, 2021, 01:28:22 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 03, 2021, 01:09:47 PM
At this time, employment reductions due to resistance to vaccination appears to be in the "oh, that's interesting and some effects are mildly annoying" level and not in the "it's resulting in a complete breakdown of society because nobody is working" level. That's hyperbole.

So let's discuss real effects, and tamp down the hyperbole.
thanks, that's all I was saying
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 03, 2021, 01:56:30 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 03, 2021, 01:28:22 PM
thanks, that's all I was saying
And if that's exactly what had been said, without all the other stuff, then I wouldn't have asked for a change in topic direction. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 03, 2021, 02:04:52 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 03, 2021, 01:09:47 PM
I think we can quite frankly make the leap from discussing vaccines to discussing vaccine mandates and their effects on employment. We seemed to handle that with the airline questions successfully. I think we can point out that there may be some impact on the world supply chain issues we've been seeing that were due to COVID as well, and those are fair game.

However, when we accuse each other of being pro-shoplifting or start discussing the need for the national guard to handle violence in Chicago, I think that's where things go too far.

At this time, employment reductions due to resistance to vaccination appears to be in the "oh, that's interesting and some effects are mildly annoying" level and not in the "it's resulting in a complete breakdown of society because nobody is working" level. That's hyperbole.

So let's discuss real effects, and tamp down the hyperbole.
Sorry but this is off-limits according to our administrator. I’m going to assume that rule applies equally to everyone

As he stated yesterday, nobody wants to hear the political narrative you are clearly driving here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 03, 2021, 02:06:24 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 03, 2021, 01:56:30 PM
And if that's exactly what had been said, without all the other stuff, then I wouldn't have asked for a change in topic direction. :)

just trying, poorly, to illustrate a point
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 03, 2021, 02:07:46 PM
Rules are for everyone.  

That was the most politically narrative post in this part of the thread yet. Just waiting for UT to confirm it’s off-limits.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 03, 2021, 02:09:02 PM
gotta remember, utee sides with the Michigan men ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 03, 2021, 02:30:29 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 03, 2021, 02:07:46 PM
Rules are for everyone. 

That was the most politically narrative post in this part of the thread yet. Just waiting for UT to confirm it’s off-limits. 
What are you referring to?

Quote from: FearlessF on November 03, 2021, 02:09:02 PM
gotta remember, utee sides with the Michigan men ;)

Pot stirrer
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 03, 2021, 02:32:15 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 03, 2021, 02:04:52 PM
Sorry but this is off-limits according to our administrator. I’m going to assume that rule applies equally to everyone

As he stated yesterday, nobody wants to hear the political narrative you are clearly driving here.

No mentions of shoplifting or national guard in Chicago or any other extraneous bullcrap.  (OTher than decrying the mentions of shoplifting and national guard and other extraneous bullcrap)

If you can't see the difference, then I can't help you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 03, 2021, 02:47:59 PM
Seems like this thread is running its course. Most of us agree on everything, almost. We don't like mandates but we like the vaccine. We don't like masks, but wear them when asked. We are pro-business, while being careful/mindful with health.

What say the group?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 03, 2021, 02:48:43 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 03, 2021, 02:32:15 PM
No mentions of shoplifting or national guard in Chicago or any other extraneous bullcrap.  (OTher than decrying the mentions of shoplifting and national guard and other extraneous bullcrap)

If you can't see the difference, then I can't help you.
Wow.  Ok, I don’t think I’m the one who needs help here but I’ll play your way. 

that means I can quote his post since it’s OK and respond to it and so I will.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 03, 2021, 02:49:49 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 03, 2021, 02:47:59 PM
Seems like this thread is running its course. Most of us agree on everything, almost. We don't like mandates but we like the vaccine. We don't like masks, but wear them when asked. We are pro-business, while being careful/mindful with health.

What say the group?
I would vote for that in a heartbeat. I’m tired of reading extremely political narratives here but being told when I respond to them that only my response is a political narrative. Such a hypocritical approach.  It rings familiar though. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 03, 2021, 02:52:08 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 03, 2021, 01:09:47 PM
I think we can quite frankly make the leap from discussing vaccines to discussing vaccine mandates and their effects on employment. We seemed to handle that with the airline questions successfully. I think we can point out that there may be some impact on the world supply chain issues we've been seeing that were due to COVID as well, and those are fair game.

However, when we accuse each other of being pro-shoplifting or start discussing the need for the national guard to handle violence in Chicago, I think that's where things go too far.

At this time, employment reductions due to resistance to vaccination appears to be in the "oh, that's interesting and some effects are mildly annoying" level and not in the "it's resulting in a complete breakdown of society because nobody is working" level. That's hyperbole.

So let's discuss real effects, and tamp down the hyperbole.
Nobody came even close to accusing anyone of anything/ But you know that and I think you can do better.

Nobody even came close to saying this was a complete societal breakdown, but you know that. I think you can do better.

Talk about hyperbole.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on November 03, 2021, 03:19:18 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on November 02, 2021, 05:17:54 PM
It’s interesting how this is tightly tied to this specific vaccine. Like, there are probably some vaccines we could mostly agree you should have to have to work in certain professions (a nurse who can get smallpox seems like a real worry).

Down the road, I wonder about the fallout. Like, everyone of us is probably vaxxed up to the hilt. With the way these discussions are going, to more folks opt out of giving their kids more traditionally accepted vaccines?
Except that no one gets the smallpox vaccine anymore.  I believe it was discontinued sometime in the 70s in the US.  Most people don't have the circular scar on their upper arm anymore.  Might pick a different disease for an example.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 03, 2021, 03:25:35 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 03, 2021, 02:48:43 PM
Wow.  Ok, I don’t think I’m the one who needs help here but I’ll play your way.

that means I can quote his post since it’s OK and respond to it and so I will. 
I'm done here.

You all can do whatever you like with this thread.   I'm tired of babysitting it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on November 03, 2021, 03:31:38 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 03, 2021, 03:25:35 PM
I'm done here.

You all can do whatever you like with this thread.  I'm tired of babysitting it.
FIRE FAUCI

CORONAVIRUS IS A SCAM

TRUMP WON AND IS PRESIDENT


THE TRUTH FINALLY WINS!!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 03, 2021, 03:32:11 PM
That was fast. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 03, 2021, 03:33:51 PM
I think I'm going to use this thread to post pictures of llamas.

(https://i.imgur.com/cVWRmLQ.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on November 03, 2021, 03:36:19 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/mIzeVGQ.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 03, 2021, 03:38:43 PM
A one L lama is a priest
A two LL llama is a beast
I will bet a silk pajama that
There are no 3 L lllamas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 03, 2021, 03:45:05 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/zHQcn7k.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 03, 2021, 04:00:55 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 03, 2021, 03:33:51 PM
I think I'm going to use this thread to post pictures of llamas.

That smaller one might be an alpaca
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 03, 2021, 04:34:42 PM
Hey, Llamas are people too ya know. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 03, 2021, 05:15:25 PM
Llamas >> Moose

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79TVMn_d_Pk
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 03, 2021, 05:42:41 PM
Also, also wik
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on November 03, 2021, 05:44:15 PM
Quote from: Riffraft on November 03, 2021, 03:19:18 PM
Except that no one gets the smallpox vaccine anymore.  I believe it was discontinued sometime in the 70s in the US.  Most people don't have the circular scar on their upper arm anymore.  Might pick a different disease for an example.
Right you are! 

Mumps then? Let’s go with mumps or generally just knowing what I’m getting at. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on November 03, 2021, 05:45:06 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 03, 2021, 03:25:35 PM
I'm done here.

You all can do whatever you like with this thread.  I'm tired of babysitting it.


Delete first. Ask Qs later. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 03, 2021, 05:49:06 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on November 03, 2021, 05:45:06 PM
Delete first. Ask Qs later.
It is now S.E.P.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 11, 2021, 11:12:47 AM
Seems like there's still an appetite for discussion of this topic.

To BB's point, not everyone wants to read this stuff, so let's try to keep Coronavirus discussions confined to this thread.

And again, I'm not moderating.  It's up to y'all to keep it clean.  Or not.

The recent discussion on the News thread has been really good, discussing issues and not politics.  You all have proven that it CAN be done.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 11, 2021, 11:25:28 AM

Quote
bwar:

Mandates are one thing. My position on anything is that I'm not going to disobey a mandate wanting me to do something smart JUST BECAUSE it's a mandate. It takes a certain level of stubbornness to defy a mandate at cost to oneself. (Note: I'm not saying that people who don't want the vaccine aren't smart--I disagree with them but it's their own decision to make for themselves.)

I chose to get the vax because I believe it was the right decision for me. I would have done that without a mandate, and I wouldn't refuse to do it just because there's a mandate. 

My daughter (age 9) got her first jab last Saturday, so a few more weeks and my entire family will be vaxxed. 

Agreed.


Trying to pull the discussion over here.  I'd move the last couple of posts if I knew how, but that would require reading instructions and whatnot...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 11, 2021, 11:47:03 AM
New COVID cases in California are now roughly 4x that of in Florida. 

Newsome has been nowhere to be found after his very public booster stunt, he’s skipped Cop26 and hadn’t been seen in public for nearly 2 weeks until he reappeared yesterday to announce extension of COVID state of emergency in California. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 11, 2021, 11:51:34 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on November 11, 2021, 11:37:33 AM
I am not anti-vaccines. I am anti-mandates. I do not believe the government should be able to force people to do anything with their own bodies. I think most drugs should be legal, the war on drugs are stupid. If heroin was legal- I wouldn’t run to the store and do it tomorrow. I don’t think most people would. And believe it or not I also think woman should have the right to choose when it comes to abortion. Government does not belong in peoples personal/private lives, period. As far as I’m concerned. I was for gay marriage as well- way before it was passed into law. If two consenting adults want to get married- why does it matter what sex they are and why is the government involved at all?

IF they were able to prove these vaccines were effective at stopping the spread dead in it’s tracks and eradicating the disease- then I might be on board for vaccine mandates. But if that had been the case- I believe you’d have seen people line up to get it- there wouldn’t be need for mandates. Study after study in highly vaccinated countries are showing the vaccines do not prevent infection or stop the spread effectively. At best they can slow it down a bit and help prevent severe symptoms. But there are therapeutics out now and more coming to market that can basically defeat the virus if you take at first sign of symptom- so again- is there a need for a vaccine that doesn’t stop transmission but can help limit severe symptoms when you have therapeutics now that can basically kick the viruses ass in 2-3 days if taken at first sign of symptoms? Not really sure.

I got the vax, having said that I do not have children, and if I had children I do not think I would give them it. I don’t see the benefits for them- as the risks for children being seriously ill or dying from COVID is virtually non-existent- and I see more potential risks giving them an experimental vaccine that was rushed to market- and to be frank we really don’t know the long term side effects it can cause in children and the FDA has admitted as such. And there has been high cases of myocarditis caused by the moderna vaccine in young boys. So much so that many countries have been banning the moderna vax for young boys.

I honestly believe that it aught to be up to the people and the parents of children to decide what they do or don’t put in their bodies and their children bodies.
Quoted from the other thread here to move things over.


I'm with you that I think the vaccine mandates aren't warranted here. I do think that there's a case to be made that government vaccine mandates can be justified, and SCOTUS jurisprudence supports this. However, I don't necessarily think that a mandate is justified for the COVID vaccine. 

I do believe that the evidence is that the vax slows the spread; it does not stop it. So I wouldn't exactly call it "worthless" when it comes to slowing the spread. 

That said, I believe that the effect on kids of Delta were more significant than the previous strains, and coupled with the added transmissibility changed the game somewhat. The risks of the vaccine on kids are very low; I wouldn't say there have been "high" cases in the percentage sense of myocarditis and moderna, but the approved vaccine in the US for minors is pfizer anyway and has not had that reported. 

So I made the choice that I'd rather have my own kids vaccinated than not. That said, the extremely low incidence of serious effects on minors from COVID makes it again much more of a "parents choice" issue for me than a requirement. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 11, 2021, 11:55:33 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 11, 2021, 11:51:34 AM
Quoted from the other thread here to move things over.


I'm with you that I think the vaccine mandates aren't warranted here. I do think that there's a case to be made that government vaccine mandates can be justified, and SCOTUS jurisprudence supports this. However, I don't necessarily think that a mandate is justified for the COVID vaccine.

I do believe that the evidence is that the vax slows the spread; it does not stop it. So I wouldn't exactly call it "worthless" when it comes to slowing the spread.

That said, I believe that the effect on kids of Delta were more significant than the previous strains, and coupled with the added transmissibility changed the game somewhat. The risks of the vaccine on kids are very low; I wouldn't say there have been "high" cases in the percentage sense of myocarditis and moderna, but the approved vaccine in the US for minors is pfizer anyway and has not had that reported.

So I made the choice that I'd rather have my own kids vaccinated than not. That said, the extremely low incidence of serious effects on minors from COVID makes it again much more of a "parents choice" issue for me than a requirement.


Yes, calling the vaccines useless against the spread, is extremism, and hyperbole.  It's also false, it's an incorrect conclusion.  The data indicate that the vaccines ARE effective at slowing the spread.  I don't consider that to be useless.

I do, however, question the validity of government mandates, under these circumstances.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 11, 2021, 12:04:25 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on November 11, 2021, 11:47:03 AM
New COVID cases in California are now roughly 4x that of in Florida.
Mdot, this is a case of quoting a true fact without ANY semblance of context or scale, and IMHO it is deceptive. Because the implication is that Florida is somehow doing well or that California is doing poorly when it comes to handling COVID. 

First and foremost, California has almost double the population of Florida. So new cases are twice as high per capita than new cases in Florida. But that's the more minor of my complaints with your statement.

The more important thing, though, is context. California and Florida both had Delta spikes at the same time. California peaked at about 13K new cases (7-day MA) per day. Florida peaked over 20K. Again, with the difference in population, that means that the rates per capita in Florida were triple those of California during the peak. Florida's decline from that peak has been steeper than California's which is why California's case numbers now are higher.

But quoting current new case rates without acknowledging the peak that preceded current rates is just being intentionally specious. At best you could make an argument like Cincy that "area under the curve" is going to be the same regardless, and I'm not sure that will stand up under close scrutiny, but you didn't do that. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 11, 2021, 12:11:16 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 11, 2021, 11:55:33 AM
Yes, calling the vaccines useless against the spread, is extremism, and hyperbole.  It's also false, it's an incorrect conclusion.  The data indicate that the vaccines ARE effective at slowing the spread.  I don't consider that to be useless.

I do, however, question the validity of government mandates, under these circumstances.
I'll also add that I agree with MDOT's opinion that we're all going to get it, at one point or another, in the next several years.

But it's helpful if we don't all get it at the same time, and the vaccines can help with that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 11, 2021, 12:24:20 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on November 11, 2021, 11:47:03 AM
New COVID cases in California are now roughly 4x that of in Florida.

Newsome has been nowhere to be found after his very public booster stunt, he’s skipped Cop26 and hadn’t been seen in public for nearly 2 weeks until he reappeared yesterday to announce extension of COVID state of emergency in California.
might as well jump in with a post dripping with political connotations 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 11, 2021, 12:36:07 PM
The drums are pounding here in Minnesota. Things getting bad.

https://twitter.com/dhmontgomery/status/1458846828959514629?t=sbZKo2GXDWI3wKsy-00Cvg&s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 11, 2021, 12:39:38 PM
Hey GR, is it getting cold enough up there to push folks indoors?  If so, that would be consistent with trends we've seen elsewhere...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 11, 2021, 01:25:39 PM
the Vikings play indoor

got them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 11, 2021, 01:26:32 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 11, 2021, 12:24:20 PM
might as well jump in with a post dripping with political connotations
not really calling into question either party. Just Newsome. He's a little weasel who preaches one thing- does another. Telling people to wear masks and not gather- while he's going maskless indoors to $500 a plate dinner parties with dozen plus people who work for health care lobby at the most prestigious restaurant in the entire United States. Guy also vetoes a bill that would've blocked nursing home patients from being evicted during pandemic. I just don't like the guy. And it has nothing to do with what party he is affiliated with. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 11, 2021, 01:27:50 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 11, 2021, 11:55:33 AM
Yes, calling the vaccines useless against the spread, is extremism, and hyperbole.  It's also false, it's an incorrect conclusion.  The data indicate that the vaccines ARE effective at slowing the spread.  I don't consider that to be useless.

I do, however, question the validity of government mandates, under these circumstances.
Yeah- I'm prone to hyperbole. Sue me. I admitted they slow the spread- but that's basically all they can do- at best. They are not some magic silver bullet that will eradicate the virus- like was first kinda sorta being hyped up.

This virus is endemic and will be with us forever, and we all gonna get it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 11, 2021, 01:30:18 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 11, 2021, 12:04:25 PM
Mdot, this is a case of quoting a true fact without ANY semblance of context or scale, and IMHO it is deceptive. Because the implication is that Florida is somehow doing well or that California is doing poorly when it comes to handling COVID.

First and foremost, California has almost double the population of Florida. So new cases are twice as high per capita than new cases in Florida. But that's the more minor of my complaints with your statement.

The more important thing, though, is context. California and Florida both had Delta spikes at the same time. California peaked at about 13K new cases (7-day MA) per day. Florida peaked over 20K. Again, with the difference in population, that means that the rates per capita in Florida were triple those of California during the peak. Florida's decline from that peak has been steeper than California's which is why California's case numbers now are higher.

But quoting current new case rates without acknowledging the peak that preceded current rates is just being intentionally specious. At best you could make an argument like Cincy that "area under the curve" is going to be the same regardless, and I'm not sure that will stand up under close scrutiny, but you didn't do that.
Didn't realize this. Thanks for setting me straight on it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on November 11, 2021, 07:11:33 PM
Also, to tack on the polio discussion - less than 1 percent of polio infections lead to any serious consequences, but I'm quite happy we worked to get rid of it. Personally, as far as the mandate, I'm a bit on the fence. Generally, I don't like mandates, but I do think vaccines are an area where the government should mandate them in certain circumstances. Is this that kind of circumstance? I think we are mostly at the end of this as a pandemic, so not sure it is worth the cost. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 11, 2021, 07:29:38 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on November 11, 2021, 07:11:33 PM
Also, to tack on the polio discussion - less than 1 percent of polio infections lead to any serious consequences, but I'm quite happy we worked to get rid of it. Personally, as far as the mandate, I'm a bit on the fence. Generally, I don't like mandates, but I do think vaccines are an area where the government should mandate them in certain circumstances. Is this that kind of circumstance? I think we are mostly at the end of this as a pandemic, so not sure it is worth the cost.
One area that I'd agree with Mdot here is that this vaccine doesn't appear to be capable of "eradication".

Per the things I posted about the polio vaccine, the original oral polio vaccine would provide the level of immunity that would stop you from contracting or passing on polio. Once polio was basically eradicated [although it's not 100% in all geographies of the world] countries moved to an inactivated polio vaccine that protects you but isn't as good at preventing infection/transmission. They did this for safety--the oral polio vaccine could potentially give you polio, making it risky. The inactivated polio virus cannot under any circumstances give you polio. 

The reason this works is that if you're statistically unlikely to ever come across the virus in your entire life (because it's been basically eradicated in the US) then you don't need a vaccine that prevents transmission. 

But that's not the case with COVID. We didn't have time to produce and test a live or attenuated virus vaccine. The risk of such vaccines is much higher than the mRNA vaccine, because the mRNA vaccine cannot give you COVID, whereas a live or attenuated virus has a small chance of doing so. 

So all we had was a vaccine that significantly reduces the chance of severe illness or death, but isn't capable of 100% preventing infection or transmission. 

I don't think a vaccine mandate makes sense in this case, because a vaccine mandate won't lead to eradication. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 11, 2021, 09:02:50 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 11, 2021, 12:39:38 PM
Hey GR, is it getting cold enough up there to push folks indoors?  If so, that would be consistent with trends we've seen elsewhere...
It is now, but until this week it has been the warmest fall in anyone's memory. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 11, 2021, 09:28:40 PM
national ABC news reporting tonight a surge in Arizona as well - pretty warm there
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 11, 2021, 09:42:21 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 11, 2021, 09:28:40 PM
national ABC news reporting tonight a surge in Arizona as well - pretty warm there

Is it TOO warm?

We saw spread in Southern states during the summer-- which happens to be when everyone goes inside to escape the heat.

Over the past couple months here in Austin, we're back to the point where people are willing to dine OUTSIDE again, because the heat has dissipated. In fact, this is about the best time of year in Austin for dining al fresco.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on November 11, 2021, 11:18:41 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 11, 2021, 09:28:40 PM
national ABC news reporting tonight a surge in Arizona as well - pretty warm there
I know, Covid in AZ is spiking, all the way here in Iowa.

Dad could not find a hospital for a non-covid condition in Tucson last week while in a stand alone ER. Then when they found a hospital, they could not find an ambulance for about 14-hours, a week ago. Eventually, he was transported to a hospital in Queens Creek, over an hour away. He was discharged in about 24-hours about 10-days ago. He is not back to his old self, but we think that over the past 3-days he has improved. This COVID-19 pandemic is not limited to COVID-19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on November 11, 2021, 11:25:33 PM
My admin. assistant has been home now for 2-weeks as successive grandchildren in her home contracted the virus, and I believe she is unvaccinated. The unvaccinated are a burden not only on the healthcare system but on their employers. I have had prior COVID scares that resulted in 5-days absence by this particular person. This is uneconomic.
I sent a new applicant home because she said she would not vaccinate. If you will not vaccinate, I don't want you as an employee. You waste my time, and cannot come into work when you, or someone close to you, is threatened with disease, and death. It is not because I think you are a threat to me, which you are, because I had COVID and am vaccinated. It is because I have clients who have respiratory illnesses and I do not wish to have someone in my office infect them.
I am acquainted with 9-people who died from Coronavirus. I am excluding a 10th person who was in the dying process before he contracted it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 12, 2021, 02:24:58 PM
Nearly two years into a global health crisis that has killed more than 5 million people, infections are again sweeping across parts of Western Europe, a region with relatively high vaccination rates and good health care systems but where lockdown measures are largely a thing of the past.

The World Health Organization said coronavirus deaths rose by 10% in Europe in the past week, and an agency official declared last week that the continent was “back at the epicenter of the pandemic.” Much of that is being driven by spiraling outbreaks in Russia and Eastern Europe — where vaccination rates tend to be low — but countries in the west such as Germany and Britain recorded some of the highest new case tolls in the world.


While nations in Western Europe all have vaccination rates over 60% — and some like Portugal and Spain are much higher — that still leaves a significant portion of their populations without protection.

Dr. Bharat Pankhania, senior clinical lecturer at Exeter University College of Medicine and Health, says that the large number of unvaccinated people combined with a widespread post-lockdown resumption of socializing and a slight decline in immunity for people who got their shots months ago is driving up the pace of infections.

Thanks largely to vaccination, hospitals in Western Europe are not under the same pressure they were earlier in the pandemic, but many are still straining to handle rising numbers of COVID patients while also attempting to clear backlogs of tests and surgeries with exhausted or sick staff. Even the countries experiencing the most serious outbreaks in the region recorded far fewer deaths per person over the past four weeks than the United States did, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.


https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-lifestyle-germany-europe-western-europe-be9a84ddaf7b9b3cc927d47428683201 (https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-lifestyle-germany-europe-western-europe-be9a84ddaf7b9b3cc927d47428683201)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 12, 2021, 03:00:11 PM
You would not know there is a Covid shit here in Lisbon.

OK. Bye. We are going to dinner. No masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 12, 2021, 03:04:57 PM
The odd thing we encountered was at two McDonald's near Macon, both with no inside service.  I stopped to get some coffee.  We went to the gas station next door, no masks or anything.  The first stop was for lunch and we had it normally at the Wendy's next door.    Everything but McDs was open.

Savannag was pretty much all open.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 12, 2021, 03:47:18 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 12, 2021, 03:04:57 PM
The odd thing we encountered was at two McDonald's near Macon, both with no inside service.  I stopped to get some coffee.  We went to the gas station next door, no masks or anything.  The first stop was for lunch and we had it normally at the Wendy's next door.    Everything but McDs was open.

Savannag was pretty much all open.
We noticed the same thing driving across rural Wisconsin. The McD's dining rooms were closed, but everything else was wide open. About 1/4 of those in stores were in masks, which was a lot more than I was expecting.

Also saw a bulletin board ad for the Saturday afternoon euchre league at the local American Legion hall. Never seen anything like that. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 12, 2021, 04:23:47 PM
Saturday afternoon euchre league??

it's like a buckets tournament only indoors where its warm
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 12, 2021, 04:29:11 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/dCeKDeK.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 12, 2021, 04:31:43 PM
Must be in the Front R-o-o-o-h-w
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 12, 2021, 04:43:04 PM
Cal Berkeley-USC game postponed due to COVID

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaafb/cals-football-team-was-99percent-vaccinated-before-a-big-covid-19-outbreak-what-happened/ar-AAQyCIw

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 12, 2021, 04:44:29 PM
another reason USC or any program in the PAC isn't the best destination for a head coach
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 12, 2021, 05:00:28 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 12, 2021, 04:44:29 PM
another reason USC or any program in the PAC isn't the best destination for a head coach
Im surprised we havent seen more of this

maybe theres more folks getting vaccinated then we thought
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 12, 2021, 05:03:49 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 12, 2021, 05:00:28 PM
Im surprised we havent seen more of this

maybe theres more folks getting vaccinated then we thought
Article says Berkeley team and staff were 99% vaccinated, and yet they now have 40 cases and counting.

Many schools just stopped testing when the vaccines came out, and in this case only a symptomatic case prompted testing. When more cases were found, they started testing more, and found more.  They don't specify but it sounds like only a handful actually have any symptoms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 12, 2021, 05:33:54 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 12, 2021, 04:23:47 PM
Saturday afternoon euchre league??

it's like a buckets tournament only indoors where its warm
Having not played much euchre in my time, I presume it's an excuse to drink beer and eat pretzels. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 12, 2021, 05:58:31 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 12, 2021, 04:44:29 PM
another reason USC or any program in the PAC isn't the best destination for a head coach
yup. I think California/USC are slowly killing themselves as both a state and football program. 

USC might be unfixable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 12, 2021, 08:57:13 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on November 12, 2021, 05:33:54 PM
Having not played much euchre in my time, I presume it's an excuse to drink beer and eat pretzels.
Ed Zachery like Buckets
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 13, 2021, 07:45:48 AM
Europe may be on the beginnings of another surge.  Germany looks bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 13, 2021, 01:09:58 PM
No problems in Portugal. Except their food sucks.

Have I mentioned that?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 13, 2021, 02:37:27 PM
Really?Would think that heir proximity to Spain and the Med it wouldn't
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 13, 2021, 04:23:24 PM
Another shit meal. Ready to get on the ship tomorrow and head to Miami. 5* hotel, 5* food, 12 days. 

I love Azamara.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on November 13, 2021, 04:24:18 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 13, 2021, 04:23:24 PM
Another shit meal. Ready to get on the ship tomorrow and head to Miami. 5* hotel, 5* food, 12 days.

I love Azamara.
What is wrong with the food?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 13, 2021, 08:34:50 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on November 13, 2021, 04:24:18 PM
What is wrong with the food?
It's shit can't you read ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2021, 07:41:08 AM
The increase in Germany is concerning, as we often catch that a month later.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 14, 2021, 10:20:17 AM
yeah I too am surprised the food sucked in Portugal.  I've never been, but the proximity to Spain where I've had many fabulous meals, would lead me to believe the food should also be good in Portugal.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 14, 2021, 10:27:09 AM
Guy Fieri could find the good food in Portugal
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 14, 2021, 11:40:09 AM
BERLIN (AP) — The Austrian government has ordered a nationwide lockdown for unvaccinated people starting at midnight Sunday to combat rising coronavirus infections and deaths.

The move prohibits unvaccinated people 12 and older from leaving their homes except for basic activities such as working, grocery shopping, going for a walk — or getting vaccinated.

Authorities are concerned about rising infections and deaths and that soon hospital staff will no longer be able to handle the growing influx of COVID-19 patients.

“It’s our job as the government of Austria to protect the people,” Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg told reporters in Vienna on Sunday. “Therefore we decided that starting Monday ... there will be a lockdown for the unvaccinated.”

The lockdown affects about 2 million people in the Alpine country of 8.9 million, the APA news agency reported. It doesn’t apply to children under 12 because they cannot yet officially get vaccinated.


The lockdown will initially last for 10 days and police will go on patrol to check people outside to make sure they are vaccinated, Schallenberg said, adding that additional forces will be assigned to the patrols.

Unvaccinated people can be fined up to 1,450 euros ($1,660) if they violate the lockdown.

Austria has one of the lowest vaccination rates in Western Europe: only around 65% of the total population is fully vaccinated. In recent weeks, Austria has faced a worrying rise in infections. Authorities reported 11,552 new cases on Sunday; a week ago there were 8,554 new daily infections.

Deaths have also been increasing in recent weeks. On Sunday, 17 new deaths were reported. Overall, Austria’s pandemic death toll stands at 11,706, APA reported.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 14, 2021, 05:15:28 PM
we live in a clown world. vaccination status does not prevent a person from infection/transmission- it can slow transmission down some- how much is not really clear- and it's been proven to help prevent serious illness symptoms- but that's all it can do at best- it's not going to stop this virus- and over-vaccination theoretically could put so much evolutionary pressure on this virus to mutate and evolve into something nastier than it already is.


you cannot vaccinate your way out of this thing- it's endemic- everyone will be getting it, period. forcing it on people just seems dumb to me. if you're worried about covid- go get the vaccine- it's proven to be effective at minimizing serious illness.

i think we really screwed up the vaccines- should've used it more like we use flu vaccines- used it more strategically and surgically on those most at need/risk around the world. there are large parts of africa and southeast asia where at risk people (elderly, pre-existing conditions) who really need this vaccine haven't been able to get access to it at all. instead of trying to force it on children in america- CDC admits children have a higher chance of dying from the flu than from covid. Survivability rate in children from this virus is 99.9+% - deploy it in poor countries in africa and southeast asia where they have elderly/pre-existing condition populations that desperately need it and the protection it provides the most at risk.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 15, 2021, 07:43:49 AM
I think the public health "experts" were trying to calculate R naught with wide spread vaccinations so as to eliminate (almost) the virus.  That has not worked obviously, and I lean to agreeing the effort should be refocused.  In THEORY, 95% vaccine rate should eliminate it, but that isn't practicable.

I'm surprised that a 70% vaccine rate is not able to diminish this significantly, I take it as evidence that vaccine effectiveness wanes fairly fast and breakthroughs are fairly common, if not serious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 15, 2021, 10:02:00 AM
certainly didn't need Delta to cause trouble

things may have been better
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on November 17, 2021, 06:08:40 PM
https://twitter.com/robbysoave/status/1460951571521585157?t=piu8I4w6mxP9WAdKu5dxLQ&s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 17, 2021, 09:10:40 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on November 17, 2021, 06:08:40 PM
https://twitter.com/robbysoave/status/1460951571521585157?t=piu8I4w6mxP9WAdKu5dxLQ&s=19
Noted lefty and science denier.  Nice try. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on November 17, 2021, 09:18:40 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 17, 2021, 09:10:40 PM
Noted lefty and science denier.  Nice try.
Not sure who is the lefty or what that has to do with anything. I find it interesting that a deep dive into the research finds that worm medicine does have a positive effect against COVID, if you have worms. I didn't think of that connection but it makes a lot of sense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 17, 2021, 09:29:35 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 17, 2021, 09:10:40 PM
Noted lefty and science denier.  Nice try.
Scott Alexander is absolutely a lefty, but he's no science denier. One of the brightest and most interesting writers I've come across in the last few years. 

If you've read him previously, you'd note that his conclusions are refreshingly free of clinging to bias. He'll be honest when the evidence points exactly opposite of his own political priors. 

Not to say you have to agree with him, but regardless of where you fit on the political spectrum, you can learn a lot from reading his stuff. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 17, 2021, 09:45:26 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 17, 2021, 09:10:40 PM
Noted lefty and science denier.  Nice try.
Robby Soave definitely a science denier in some instances- but he's far from a lefty. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 17, 2021, 09:48:56 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on November 17, 2021, 09:18:40 PM
Not sure who is the lefty or what that has to do with anything. I find it interesting that a deep dive into the research finds that worm medicine does have a positive effect against COVID, if you have worms. I didn't think of that connection but it makes a lot of sense.

It's pretty simple brother, ivermectin is out of patent- anyone can manufacture it and it sells for about 3 to 10 cents a pill. There's no way for anyone to make any money off of it. Pfizer's new drug which is a protease inhibitor- and works in a similar fashion to how the ivermectin molecule works against covid- will sell for $400-500 a pill- not to be outdone- Merck has a covid pill that will sell for around $700, per pill- and these companies will literally make hundreds of billions of dollars from this new drug over a 20 year period (that's how long the patents last).

Please watch this entire video. Everyone absolutely should. This man is a scientist- who only follows the science.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufy2AweXRkc
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 17, 2021, 09:49:43 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on November 17, 2021, 09:45:26 PM
Robby Soave definitely a science denier in some instances- but he's far from a lefty.
Robby Soave is some sort of a libertarian, since he writes for Reason. Scott Alexander is definitely (and admittedly) a lefty, and writes his own stuff which isn't expressly partisan. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on November 18, 2021, 01:50:57 AM
Brett Bielema will miss Saturday's game in Iowa City after he came down with a break through case of COVID-19. I have not heard of others in Illinois football who came down with it, but usually, others do follow, especially with Delta.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 18, 2021, 07:43:17 AM
I spent a bit of time looking at clinicals and trials on ivermectin and hydrochloroquine and concluded neither is efficacious.  It's pretty easy to find one example somewhere, perhaps an in vitro test, that says it works, but it's easier to find a hundred saying it doesn't.  Then folks claim "Well, you have to add zinc to it."  or whatever.  And I don't think a casual observer untrained in analysis of such things should bother trying.  They usually will find what they want to believe instead of a closer approximation of reality.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 18, 2021, 07:55:36 AM
Germany is still spiking in cases, worse than they've ever had it before.  Area under the curve?  Hopefully it's two months, or less, and out.  The spike started early October.  I don't  get it, at all, some blame folks from the "east" coming in.

Poland had a lot of vax resistance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2021, 08:17:59 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 18, 2021, 07:55:36 AM
Germany is still spiking in cases, worse than they've ever had it before.  Area under the curve?  Hopefully it's two months, or less, and out.  The spike started early October.  I don't  get it, at all, some blame folks from the "east" coming in.

Poland had a lot of vax resistance.
Lots of states ramping up here in the USA as well.  Mostly in the north and northeast, but Texas also looks like it's trending up slightly again.

This will continue for years, I suspect.  It will continue as long as we are focusing on counting cases and  testing for a specific virus that is now endemic, at a rate unheard of in human history.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 18, 2021, 08:35:43 AM
I'm surprised with many vaccinated and many more with some resistance due to having had it earlier than it can still spread this fast.  Our resistance levels appear to be dropping off faster than we had hoped a few months back.

in the US we must be nearing 90% of adults with some resistance, which would make it tough to spread, if said resistance was fairly good.  My guess is while 90% have SOME resistance, for most it's fading.  And yes, it's now endemic and I don't see a whole lot to do about that.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 18, 2021, 09:01:57 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 18, 2021, 08:35:43 AM
I'm surprised with many vaccinated and many more with some resistance due to having had it earlier than it can still spread this fast.  Our resistance levels appear to be dropping off faster than we had hoped a few months back.

in the US we must be nearing 90% of adults with some resistance, which would make it tough to spread, if said resistance was fairly good.  My guess is while 90% have SOME resistance, for most it's fading.  And yes, it's now endemic and I don't see a whole lot to do about that.
dirty little secret- these vaccines aren't going to do much against Delta- and they are proving to be less and less effective vs delta over time. They were designed to provide protection against the alpha strain. Delta has a mutated spike protein which beats the vaccines which were designed to fight alpha. we really need to stop calling these "breakthrough" cases and just calling them what they are- infections.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2021, 09:02:44 AM
If we actually tested as thoroughly every year, for flu and all of the coronaviruses that cause the common cold, I suspect we'd see similar case numbers. 

The difference with COVID19 of course, is that it sends higher numbers of people to the hospital/ICU/death.  

The vaccines have proven to be effective at minimizing the most severe of symptoms, and everyone that wants the vaccine has gotten it.

That's really the most we can do at this point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 18, 2021, 09:05:02 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 18, 2021, 08:17:59 AM
This will continue for years, I suspect.  It will continue as long as we are focusing on counting cases and  testing for a specific virus that is now endemic, at a rate unheard of in human history.
I'd say it's because odds are probably 99%+ this was a supercharged virus that humans manipulated to spread quicker, faster, stronger- through gain of function research- which likely escaped from the lab on accident. Chinese government immediately went into coverup mode- deleted entire databases immediately- and they still haven't been anywhere close to honest about anything.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 18, 2021, 09:06:33 AM
I'm still curious about the seasonality, or lack thereof, of outbreaks.  I understand that being indoors more can promote spread, but the peaks occur almost randomly.

India had a bad outbreak and then two months later it was gone, with low vax rates.  Now Germany is spiking when they didn't spike last year this time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2021, 09:08:06 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on November 18, 2021, 09:05:02 AM
I'd say it's because odds are probably 99%+ this was a supercharged virus that humans manipulated to spread quicker, faster, stronger- through gain of function research- which likely escaped from the lab on accident. Chinese government immediately went into coverup mode- deleted entire databases immediately- and they still haven't been anywhere close to honest about anything.
That's all possible, of course.  I don't know how likely, but it's possible.  There must be SOME explanation for why this is so incredibly transmissible.  Natural evolution could be one explanation, or manipulation could be another.

But I was speaking of the testing rate, not the spread of the virus.  We're testing at unprecedented levels in all of human history.  So of course we're finding a lot of infection, in people that aren't actually sick.  If we did the same thing for flu or the common cold, we'd also find a lot of infection in people that aren't sick.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 18, 2021, 09:12:27 AM
The U.S. government will pay drugmaker Pfizer $5.29 billion for 10 million treatment courses of its potential COVID-19 treatment if regulators authorize it.

Pfizer asked the Food and Drug Administration on Tuesday to authorize emergency use of the experimental pill, which has been shown to significantly cut the rate of hospitalizations and deaths among people with coronavirus infections.

The FDA is already reviewing a competing pill from Merck and will hold a public meeting on it later this month.

The price for Pfizer’s potential treatment amounts to about $529 per course. The U.S. has already agreed to pay roughly $700 per course of Merck’s drug for about 1.7 million treatments.

Pfizer said Thursday the price being paid by the U.S. government reflects the high number of treatment courses purchased through 2022.

The drugmaker said it also has started rolling submissions for approval in several other countries and there are advanced purchase agreements with other governments as well.

On Tuesday, Pfizer signed a deal a with U.N.-backed group to allow generic drugmakers to produce low-cost versions of the pill for certain countries. Merck has a similar deal for its pill, which was authorized in Britain earlier this month.

Pfizer reported earlier this month that its pill cut hospitalizations and deaths by 89% among high-risk adults who had early symptoms of COVID-19.

The company studied its pill in people who were unvaccinated and faced the worst risks from the virus due to age or health problems, such as obesity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 18, 2021, 09:12:45 AM
just take the pill

follow the science
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 18, 2021, 09:15:19 AM
awe what good, noble, nice guys Pfizer and Merck are. Only charging US gov't $529 a pill and $700 a pill respectively. Sweet hearts just coming up with drugs to help people out of the good of their hearts! 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 18, 2021, 09:18:11 AM
I've noted before that Pfizer stock has not really moved much, I have owned it for a while now.  It's up a bit.  Moderna stock, which I did not own, has really jumped.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2021, 09:20:03 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 18, 2021, 09:12:45 AM
just take the pill

follow the science
Yup, and here begins the slippery slope.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2021, 09:22:03 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 18, 2021, 09:12:27 AM

The company studied its pill in people who were unvaccinated and faced the worst risks from the virus due to age or health problems, such as obesity.

It's not a popular thing to say, but I think folks around here can have an honest discussion about this-- one of the main problems with COVID19, is that it so severely affects people with comorbidities.  And here in the USA, one of the most common and problematic comorbidities, is obesity.

I'm not trying to discount the severity of COVID19, but it has been significantly exacerbated by the problem of obesity in our population.

I believe we need much stronger messaging from health officials about this problem.  I believe we're currently very soft on it-- it's come to the point where there is a widespread social justice movement that actually focuses on protecting the feelings of obese people.  There is propaganda and rhetoric that there are all kinds of "healthy bodies" and that fat people can be healthy too.

They can't.  They aren't.  It's a massive issue.  And it's significantly affecting the deadliness of this virus in our country.

Surprisingly, the studies show that smoking doesn't seem to affect the severity of this virus at all.  But obesity most certainly does.

We need to take it MUCH more seriously.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on November 18, 2021, 09:25:13 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 18, 2021, 09:22:03 AM
It's not a popular thing to say, but I think folks around here can have an honest discussion about this-- one of the main problems with COVID19, is that it so severely affects people with comorbidities.  And here in the USA, one of the most common and problematic comorbidities, is obesity.

I'm not trying to discount the severity of COVID19, but it has been significantly exacerbated by the problem of obesity in our population.

I believe we need much stronger messaging from health officials about this problem.  I believe we're currently very soft on it-- it's come to the point where there is a widespread social justice movement that actually focuses on protecting the feelings of obese people.  There is propaganda and rhetoric that there are all kinds of "healthy bodies" and that fat people can be healthy too.

They can't.  They aren't.  It's a massive issue.  And it's significantly affecting the deadliness of this virus in our country.

Surprisingly, the studies show that smoking doesn't seem to affect the severity of this virus at all.  But obesity most certainly does.

We need to take it MUCH more seriously.
Isn't that exactly why "liberal havens" enact things like soda pop taxes and bans?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2021, 09:28:25 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on November 18, 2021, 09:25:13 AM
Isn't that exactly why "liberal havens" enact things like soda pop taxes and bans?
I guess?  Does it work?  Does it make any difference?

Or are there other routes that could be more effective?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 18, 2021, 09:33:18 AM
shaming and humiliation probably more effective, but don't raise money for the government like taxes
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 18, 2021, 09:34:23 AM
I see no "cure" for obesity.  I go to Walmart about once a month for some staples and see what folks have in their carts, we all do.

Interestingly, folks I see on the streets here appear to be in pretty decent shape (some of the ladies in excellent shape).  This is a very walkable area with a lot of 30somethings and many have dogs.  It's almost like spending time in France and coming back here, it really hits you in the airport how fat we are in comparison.

And I'm not one to talk but I'm not obviously overweight.  Wally World of course is the place to see obesity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on November 18, 2021, 09:34:47 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 18, 2021, 09:28:25 AM
I guess?  Does it work?  Does it make any difference?

Or are there other routes that could be more effective?
No idea, but I'm not sure I agree that society isn't taking it seriously - can't swing a cat without hitting a gym or new diet plan or whatever. Maybe they take it too seriously.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2021, 09:37:11 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 18, 2021, 09:34:23 AM
I see no "cure" for obesity.  I go to Walmart about once a month for some staples and see what folks have in their carts, we all do.

Interestingly, folks I see on the streets here appear to be in pretty decent shape (some of the ladies in excellent shape).  This is a very walkable area with a lot of 30somethings and many have dogs.  It's almost like spending time in France and coming back here, it really hits you in the airport how fat we are in comparison.

And I'm not one to talk but I'm not obviously overweight.  Wally World of course is the place to see obesity.
True, but I'm also shocked every time I go back to France after a 5-year break or so, and see how much fatter they're getting, too.  My first trip to Europe was in 1995, and comparing the relative size of the people then, compared to my most recent trip a couple of years ago, is jaw-dropping.

They're not as fat as we are, but they're accelerating at an alarming rate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 18, 2021, 09:40:42 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 18, 2021, 09:22:03 AM
It's not a popular thing to say, but I think folks around here can have an honest discussion about this-- one of the main problems with COVID19, is that it so severely affects people with comorbidities.  And here in the USA, one of the most common and problematic comorbidities, is obesity.

I'm not trying to discount the severity of COVID19, but it has been significantly exacerbated by the problem of obesity in our population.

I believe we need much stronger messaging from health officials about this problem.  I believe we're currently very soft on it-- it's come to the point where there is a widespread social justice movement that actually focuses on protecting the feelings of obese people.  There is propaganda and rhetoric that there are all kinds of "healthy bodies" and that fat people can be healthy too.

They can't.  They aren't.  It's a massive issue.  And it's significantly affecting the deadliness of this virus in our country.

Surprisingly, the studies show that smoking doesn't seem to affect the severity of this virus at all.  But obesity most certainly does.

We need to take it MUCH more seriously.
amen brother. 

FDA can start by banning all the chemicals and additives EU bans in their food sources. I also think there should be some sort of fast food tax on both companies and consumers- which discourages companies from putting fast food locations on every single corner of every single street in this country and discourages people from eating that garbage. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2021, 09:41:55 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on November 18, 2021, 09:34:47 AM
No idea, but I'm not sure I agree that society isn't taking it seriously - can't swing a cat without hitting a gym or new diet plan or whatever. Maybe they take it too seriously.

And yet there are strong social justice movements promoting obese people as "another kind of healthy body" and many that take it even further, into fit-shaming people that are actually making efforts through diet and exercise, to stay healthy.

We're not allowed to call obese people "fat" anymore, it's insensitive and it might hurt their feelings. I can face the truth, there are times in my life when I've been up to 215 lbs.  At 5'10", my ideal weight is about 160. I've been outright fat.

I'm not even where I need to be currently, but I face reality and know when I'm heading off the path.  I straighten out the nutrition plan, get back to exercise, and move toward my health goals.

Far too many people have NOBODY telling them that their current diet and lack of exercise are the reasons they're unhealthy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 18, 2021, 09:44:13 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 18, 2021, 09:41:55 AM
And yet there are strong social justice movements promoting obese people as "another kind of healthy body" and many that take it even further, into fit-shaming people that are actually making efforts through diet and exercise, to stay healthy.

We're not allowed to call obese people "fat" anymore, it's insensitive and it might hurt their feelings. I can face the truth, there are times in my life when I've been up to 215 lbs.  At 5'10", my ideal weight is about 160. I've been outright fat.

I'm not even where I need to be currently, but I face reality and know when I'm heading off the path.  I straighten out the nutrition plan, get back to exercise, and move toward my health goals.

Far too many people have NOBODY telling them that their current diet and lack of exercise are the reasons they're unhealthy.
it's the woke social justice twitter mob for you. these people all need to die.

Adele lost a shit ton of weight and looks FAN-F**KNG-TASTIC- and she got blasted by those morons all over the internet for "conforming to the corrupt patriarchy's impossible and unrealistic standards of unattainable beauty!" - nah bro she just got healthy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 18, 2021, 09:45:50 AM
I think folks making these claims are a very distinct minority not taken very seriously by others.

Noise, not numbers.  And not even much noise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 18, 2021, 09:49:03 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 18, 2021, 09:45:50 AM
I think folks making these claims are a very distinct minority not taken very seriously by others.

Noise, not numbers.  And not even much noise.
that may be true- but it gets amplified by all the idiots in online and tv media who love to stir up shit so they write stories displaying tweets by random idiots or throw them up on their shitty tv shows- to try to get the people watching/reading thinking this is what large amount of people on the twitter-net actually feel/think. 

I cannot tell you how much I hate when I'm reading an article or watching a tv news program and they put up tweets from random assholes on the internet. It's like....who really gives a shit what any of these people say- and why are you parroting/promoting what a bunch of random retards on the internet say? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 18, 2021, 09:51:49 AM
AstraZeneca antibody drug 83% effective at preventing Covid: Trial (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/18/astrazeneca-antibody-drug-83percent-effective-at-preventing-covid-trial.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2021, 09:52:10 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 18, 2021, 09:45:50 AM
I think folks making these claims are a very distinct minority not taken very seriously by others.

Noise, not numbers.  And not even much noise.

If you're talking about the general chatter about how being fat can be healthy, I think you're wrong.  Dead wrong.  Literally.

It's very much a part of the PC culture that has firmly taken root in our country, to make excuses and allowances for obese people. 

To your earlier point about what can be done about it?  I don't know.  Maybe the US Surgeon General can ask Big Bird to tweet about it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on November 18, 2021, 09:53:15 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 18, 2021, 09:41:55 AM
And yet there are strong social justice movements promoting obese people as "another kind of healthy body" and many that take it even further, into fit-shaming people that are actually making efforts through diet and exercise, to stay healthy.

We're not allowed to call obese people "fat" anymore, it's insensitive and it might hurt their feelings. I can face the truth, there are times in my life when I've been up to 215 lbs.  At 5'10", my ideal weight is about 160. I've been outright fat.

I'm not even where I need to be currently, but I face reality and know when I'm heading off the path.  I straighten out the nutrition plan, get back to exercise, and move toward my health goals.

Far too many people have NOBODY telling them that their current diet and lack of exercise are the reasons they're unhealthy.
I get all that, I'm just saying the idea that we don't take it seriously, when it literally is plastered all over everything, is maybe the wrong word. We declared a "war" on drugs and put in who knows how much money and resources into getting rid of drugs, and now drugs are very plentiful and overdoses go higher and higher. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 18, 2021, 10:01:40 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 18, 2021, 09:52:10 AM
If you're talking about the general chatter about how being fat can be healthy, I think you're wrong.  Dead wrong.  Literally.

It's very much a part of the PC culture that has firmly taken root in our country, to make excuses and allowances for obese people.

To your earlier point about what can be done about it?  I don't know.  Maybe the US Surgeon General can ask Big Bird to tweet about it.
Truth.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 18, 2021, 10:04:30 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on November 18, 2021, 09:01:57 AM
dirty little secret- these vaccines aren't going to do much against Delta- and they are proving to be less and less effective vs delta over time. They were designed to provide protection against the alpha strain. Delta has a mutated spike protein which beats the vaccines which were designed to fight alpha. we really need to stop calling these "breakthrough" cases and just calling them what they are- infections.
Uhh, the vaccines do protect pretty well against Delta infections early on when antibody levels are high, but as the antibody levels wane the protection against infection drops off. 

They also do very well at reducing the rate of hospitalizations and deaths in these breakthrough infections, even well after the antibody levels have dropped, because the body know has the blueprint for ramping up antibody production. 

Delta is MUCH more transmissible than previous strains in unvaccinated and vaccinated people alike, but that doesn't mean the vaccines "aren't going to do much". They're keeping a lot of people alive.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2021, 10:07:03 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on November 18, 2021, 09:49:03 AM
that may be true- but it gets amplified by all the idiots in online and tv media who love to stir up shit so they write stories displaying tweets by random idiots or throw them up on their shitty tv shows- to try to get the people watching/reading thinking this is what large amount of people on the twitter-net actually feel/think.

I cannot tell you how much I hate when I'm reading an article or watching a tv news program and they put up tweets from random assholes on the internet. It's like....who really gives a shit what any of these people say- and why are you parroting/promoting what a bunch of random retards on the internet say?

Agree with this for sure.  It's become the de facto "man on the street interview."

But the problem is that twitter isn't even as representative of the public, as a literal man on the street would be.  The only people tweeting, are the ones that are too stupid to understand they're supposed to keep their mouths shut and let the world WONDER if they're stupid, instead of opening it and proving their stupidity beyond the shadow of a doubt.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 18, 2021, 10:07:09 AM
"We" may take it seriously, but "we" don't take it effectively.  There is a stronger social stigma in France against being fat, and it works, though I see a lot of young females smoking to maintain weight there.  We have lists of Calories in food items that few bother to read or consider.  That didn't work, I found food labeling to be useful.  I was surprised how much salt was in many things like canned tomatoes.  I've read some scary items about fructose, which is half of table sugar (and about half of HFC as well) and try and limit my sugar intake pretty hard.  Alcohol is my weak spot, I like wine too much.

I say the five major food groups are salt, sugar, fat, caffeine, and alcohol.  Just about any prepared food item in the US has a lot of 3 of those in it.

Salt sugar and fat are cheap ways to make cardboard taste good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2021, 10:15:48 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 18, 2021, 10:07:09 AM
"We" may take it seriously, but "we" don't take it effectively.  There is a stronger social stigma in France against being fat, and it works, though I see a lot of young females smoking to maintain weight there.  We have lists of Calories in food items that few bother to read or consider.  That didn't work, I found food labeling to be useful.  I was surprised how much salt was in many things like canned tomatoes.  I've read some scary items about fructose, which is half of table sugar (and about half of HFC as well) and try and limit my sugar intake pretty hard.  Alcohol is my weak spot, I like wine too much.

I say the five major food groups are salt, sugar, fat, caffeine, and alcohol.  Just about any prepared food item in the US has a lot of 3 of those in it.

Salt sugar and fat are cheap ways to make cardboard taste good.

Yeah this is the problem.  A lot of people talk a game about taking it seriously but really don't.  People join gyms for a few weeks and then quit. People go on fad diets and then quit those too.

I know exactly what's in fast food and processed food, and I know the dangers of them.  When I choose to eat them, I do it knowingly.  I'm educated about it.

A lot of people probably aren't.  And I'm not sure how to fix that, because a lot of people don't really WANT to be.  Excessive salt sugar and fat taste good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2021, 10:19:34 AM
But really, my original point was about obesity and how it relates to COVID19.

What can be done RIGHT NOW?

Right now the CDC, surgeon general, and whatever other authorities exist, could make definitive statements about the risks of complications to COVID19 when obesity is involved.

And I'm not talking about listing it as one risk factor among a dozen, on some buried government website that nobody ever looks at.

There are currently scores of television, internet, and radio campaigns targeted at encouraging people to get vaccinated.  Apply the same effort to encouraging people to stop being so fat.  Call it out as every bit as scary and risky as licking every surface of the COVID ward at the hospital.  Do whatever it takes to make people understand that while being fat is dangerous, when COVID19 is involved, being fat is deadly. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 18, 2021, 10:27:20 AM
You might get a few converts, temporarily, but it's very difficult to really lose weight accumulated over decades.  Folks give up, or try the latest fad diet, and give up.

I see no viable means to cut obesity levels in the US by any appreciable amount, or even any amount, I think it's headed the wrong way.

I routinely see fat people parking in the HDCP spot around Kroger and then getting out and finding a scooter to use through Kroger.  They walk maybe 20 feet and that's it.

We all see this.  Then there is fast food, nearly all of which is awful and sodas replete with HFC/sugar.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2021, 10:36:15 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 18, 2021, 10:27:20 AM
You might get a few converts, temporarily, but it's very difficult to really lose weight accumulated over decades.  Folks give up, or try the latest fad diet, and give up.

I see no viable means to cut obesity levels in the US by any appreciable amount, or even any amount, I think it's headed the wrong way.

I routinely see fat people parking in the HDCP spot around Kroger and then getting out and finding a scooter to use through Kroger.  They walk maybe 20 feet and that's it.

We all see this.  Then there is fast food, nearly all of which is awful and sodas replete with HFC/sugar.

It's difficult for sure, and maybe impossible.  But as you pointed out upthread, in places like France, it's not as socially acceptable.  There's societal pressure against obesity.

Such pressure is not only being curtailed here, it's being actively undermined.  Obesity is being called another form of healthy body-- it's being actively promoted as such in the MSM.  People that strive for physical fitness are actually being denigrated for their actions.  Even saying the word "fat" is unacceptable.  We are sad, scared little victims of our own softness.  My grandfather's generation would laugh at our fat asses so badly.

In fact, he did.  A couple years out of college, when I'd let myself go a little bit physically, he was the first one to just up and call me pudgy and tell me I needed to mix in some salads. And he was right.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on November 18, 2021, 10:37:58 AM
America is a free market society. Pay people to stay thin.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2021, 10:42:37 AM
Quote from: MaximumSam on November 18, 2021, 10:37:58 AM
America is a free market society. Pay people to stay thin.
Sure.  There might be some creative way to do this.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 18, 2021, 10:52:06 AM
well, if those miracle pills or powder that you just eat or drink before you go to bed really worked

folks would spend plenty of money

(https://consumerdietreviews.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/CDR-dietpills.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 18, 2021, 12:55:53 PM
Mrs. GR and I got boosted on Tuesday. Slightly sore arms that day. Wife was a little queasy yesterday morning, and I had the hangover hit mid-afternoon. Both of us slept soundly and are back at full speed today. Take that, 'rona!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 18, 2021, 01:46:40 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 18, 2021, 10:07:09 AM
"We" may take it seriously, but "we" don't take it effectively.  There is a stronger social stigma in France against being fat, and it works, though I see a lot of young females smoking to maintain weight there.  We have lists of Calories in food items that few bother to read or consider.  That didn't work, I found food labeling to be useful.  I was surprised how much salt was in many things like canned tomatoes.  I've read some scary items about fructose, which is half of table sugar (and about half of HFC as well) and try and limit my sugar intake pretty hard.  Alcohol is my weak spot, I like wine too much.

I say the five major food groups are salt, sugar, fat, caffeine, and alcohol.  Just about any prepared food item in the US has a lot of 3 of those in it.

Salt sugar and fat are cheap ways to make cardboard taste good.
Convenient
Cheap
Tasty (not GOOD, but checks the salt box, the sugar box, etc. in our brains)
Plentiful

All the rich food-producers hire all the best lobbyists to keep the status quo.  Do not be fooled - the fact that Americans eat garbage food is directly due to wealthy companies wanting to stay wealthy.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 18, 2021, 01:53:35 PM
The PC "fat can be healthy" thing started, as most things do, as a prudent point that a woman could be a size ___ and still look sexy.  The number in the blank wasn't 20+, though, it was more like a size 12 or a size 10. 
Skinny equalled hot and the point was that no, women who didn't resemble teenage boys were also sexy, and of course, they are.

But over time and with a bunch of other people rolling with it, we get this bastardized version of it where obese people are supposed to be healthy.  Of course we're not. 

The same thing happened with 'defund the police,' which was a call for a % of police funding to go towards specialists doing some of the jobs police officers have been saddled with and poorly prepared for for decades. It was a great idea.
But then it was bastardized by idiots and went off the rails.

Everything seems to get bastardized by the greedy and/or the idiots, which is why every major aspect of our society is mostly broken.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 18, 2021, 02:00:34 PM
Social media seems good at bringing out the extremists and giving them voice.  And I agree some good ideas get lost because they are parodied and partisanized.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on November 18, 2021, 02:10:53 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 18, 2021, 09:22:03 AM
It's not a popular thing to say, but I think folks around here can have an honest discussion about this-- one of the main problems with COVID19, is that it so severely affects people with comorbidities.  And here in the USA, one of the most common and problematic comorbidities, is obesity.

I'm not trying to discount the severity of COVID19, but it has been significantly exacerbated by the problem of obesity in our population.

I believe we need much stronger messaging from health officials about this problem.  I believe we're currently very soft on it-- it's come to the point where there is a widespread social justice movement that actually focuses on protecting the feelings of obese people.  There is propaganda and rhetoric that there are all kinds of "healthy bodies" and that fat people can be healthy too.

They can't.  They aren't.  It's a massive issue.  And it's significantly affecting the deadliness of this virus in our country.

Surprisingly, the studies show that smoking doesn't seem to affect the severity of this virus at all.  But obesity most certainly does.

We need to take it MUCH more seriously.



While this is indeed an issue, it’s also fair to say the impact of weight on this disease has been to a degree, overstated. (Not that it doesn’t help to be skinny, but it’s also been misrepresented)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 18, 2021, 02:17:07 PM
Is it clear that age is the primary comorbidity? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on November 18, 2021, 02:20:16 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 18, 2021, 02:17:07 PM
Is it clear that age is the primary comorbidity?
I think so, though it’s also the great co-morbidity. Like, old people are more likely to die from everything. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 18, 2021, 02:30:05 PM
We are less likely to die climbing out the second floor window of our gf's house when her husband comes home unexpectedly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 18, 2021, 04:04:37 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 18, 2021, 02:30:05 PM
We are less likely to die climbing out the second floor window of our gf's house when her husband comes home unexpectedly.
😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 18, 2021, 04:10:17 PM
Borax baths as a Covid-19 vaccine detox are a dangerous side effect of misinformation (msnbc.com) (https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/borax-baths-covid-19-vaccine-detox-are-dangerous-side-effect-n1283996?icid=msd_topgrid)

My weird "news item" for the day, how to reverse the COVID vaccine .... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2021, 04:40:22 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 18, 2021, 04:10:17 PM
Borax baths as a Covid-19 vaccine detox are a dangerous side effect of misinformation (msnbc.com) (https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/borax-baths-covid-19-vaccine-detox-are-dangerous-side-effect-n1283996?icid=msd_topgrid)

My weird "news item" for the day, how to reverse the COVID vaccine ....

Bizarre.  People will believe all kinds of weird things they hear on the internet.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 18, 2021, 04:47:20 PM
I doubt he did anything like that, but my brother said when he revealed he'd actually gone through with getting the shot that he was doing any thing he could to "flush that shit out of me"... :smiley_confused1:

I didn't dig into it further. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2021, 04:51:25 PM
sheesh.  Makes me appreciate that much more that my brother and I get along so well.  It's probably because he's not a complete ignoramus.  

No offense intended... ;)


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 18, 2021, 04:56:21 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 18, 2021, 04:51:25 PM
sheesh.  Makes me appreciate that much more that my brother and I get along so well.  It's probably because he's not a complete ignoramus. 

No offense intended... ;)
Honestly, he's a smart guy. And we get along just fine. 

He's also a stubborn ass who hates to be told what to do, and a pretty hardcore libertarian, which means that his selection of news & opinion sources might lead him down a few rabbit holes that he'd be better off staying out of. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2021, 04:59:40 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 18, 2021, 04:56:21 PM
Honestly, he's a smart guy. And we get along just fine.

He's also a stubborn ass who hates to be told what to do, and a pretty hardcore libertarian, which means that his selection of news & opinion sources might lead him down a few rabbit holes that he'd be better off staying out of.
Yeah I hear ya.

I'm probably closer to Libertarian than I am to Dem or Repub, but I go ahead and draw the line on those types of people and their sources, when what they're saying goes completely off the far end of the bullshit meter.  I suppose that's the engineer/scientist in me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 18, 2021, 05:16:11 PM
A surge in cases in the Upper Midwest has some Michigan schools keeping students at home ahead of Thanksgiving and the military sending medical teams to Minnesota to relieve hospital staffs overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients.

The worsening outlook in the Midwest comes as booster shots are being made available to everyone in a growing number of locations. Massachusetts and Utah became the latest to say anyone 18 or older can roll up a sleeve for a booster shots, and an advisory committee for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is meeting Friday to discuss expanding boosters.

Cold weather states are dominating the fresh wave of cases over the last seven days, including New Hampshire, North Dakota and Wisconsin, according to federal data. But the Southwest had trouble spots, too, with more than 90% of inpatient hospital beds occupied in Arizona.


In Detroit, where only 35% of eligible residents were fully vaccinated, the school district said it would switch to online learning on Fridays in December because of rising COVID-19 cases, a need to clean buildings and a timeout for “mental health relief.” One high school has changed to all online learning until Nov. 29.

Detroit health officer Denise Fair Razo said new cases have skyrocketed in the city in the last 14 days to 3,858, compared to 2,322 in the previous two-week period.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on November 18, 2021, 10:06:06 PM
Lansing's medical system is Code Red for the first time during the pandemic
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 18, 2021, 10:14:01 PM
Quote from: ELA on November 18, 2021, 10:06:06 PM
Lansing's medical system is Code Red for the first time during the pandemic
just looking at the hospitalization data it doesnt look like covid is the cause


https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98159-523641--,00.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 19, 2021, 09:39:57 AM
FDA authorizes boosters for all American adults to brace country for winter | TheHill (https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/582325-fda-authorizes-boosters-for-all-american-adults)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 19, 2021, 09:50:11 AM
I'm right at 6 months since my second shot, as of today.  I hadn't planned on getting the booster just yet, but we're traveling to New Mexico for Christmas so it might be a good time to go ahead with it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 19, 2021, 09:51:41 AM
I got it, had no impact on me this time.  I'm expecting to get another in 6-8 months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 19, 2021, 09:59:38 AM
Yes here in Florida they are very proactive and will let me know as soon as it’s available, at which time I will go right ahead and get it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 19, 2021, 10:00:34 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 19, 2021, 09:50:11 AM
I'm right at 6 months since my second shot, as of today.  I hadn't planned on getting the booster just yet, but we're traveling to New Mexico for Christmas so it might be a good time to go ahead with it.
you told Badge he didn't need one for travel
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 19, 2021, 10:01:21 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 19, 2021, 10:00:34 AM
you told Badge he didn't need one for travel
There is need one, legally, versus need one as being a good idea.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 19, 2021, 10:02:29 AM
utee didn't seem to think it was a good idea a few weeks ago

Badge disagreed 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 19, 2021, 10:15:58 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 19, 2021, 10:02:29 AM
utee didn't seem to think it was a good idea a few weeks ago

Badge disagreed
I don't think I ever said it was a bad idea.  Just not really a necessity.

I'm obviously not overly worried about it and I'm certainly not rushing out to do it.  But if it's easy, I'll probably knock it out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 19, 2021, 11:38:36 AM
study in Israel suggest that fully vaccinated people were TWENTY SEVEN times more likely to get an symptomatic covid infection than an an unvaccinated person who had already caught covid and recovered, suggesting that natural immunity is much stronger and longer lasting than vaccine-induced immunity.

https://www.newsweek.com/how-fauci-fooled-america-opinion-1643839

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v1

https://brownstone.org/articles/a-review-and-autopsy-of-two-covid-immunity-studies/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 19, 2021, 11:41:48 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 18, 2021, 01:46:40 PM
Convenient
Cheap
Tasty (not GOOD, but checks the salt box, the sugar box, etc. in our brains)
Plentiful

All the rich food-producers hire all the best lobbyists to keep the status quo.  Do not be fooled - the fact that Americans eat garbage food is directly due to wealthy companies wanting to stay wealthy. 
Sadly, this is true. Big food is big business- and they spend billions lobbying in DC every year to maintain status quo. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 19, 2021, 11:48:22 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 18, 2021, 05:16:11 PM
In Detroit, where only 35% of eligible residents were fully vaccinated, the school district said it would switch to online learning on Fridays in December because of rising COVID-19 cases, a need to clean buildings and a timeout for “mental health relief.” One high school has changed to all online learning until Nov. 29.
The population of Detroit is literally like 90% black, if not higher.

This gets to another point- media seems to love to imply and push a false narrative that it's all white trash redneck Trump QAnon people who are not getting the vaccines- therefore they should be ostracized, ridiculed, even not allowed to participate in society- but it's the minority population that are not getting the vaccines in huge numbers.

NYC has put in place a vaccine "passport" in order to go into restaurants, bars, gyms- and I believe only 20 some percent of the black population in New York City has been vaccinated.

Just another case of media distorting reality that I find both astonishing and frightening.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 19, 2021, 11:54:49 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 19, 2021, 10:15:58 AM
I don't think I ever said it was a bad idea.  Just not really a necessity.

I'm obviously not overly worried about it and I'm certainly not rushing out to do it.  But if it's easy, I'll probably knock it out.
Quote from: Mdot21 on November 19, 2021, 11:38:36 AM
study in Israel suggest that fully vaccinated people were TWENTY SEVEN times more likely to get an symptomatic covid infection than an an unvaccinated person who had already caught covid and recovered, suggesting that natural immunity is much stronger and longer lasting than vaccine-induced immunity.

Yeah, we've seen that study. 

Here's what we know:


But that leaves a case that isn't clear... Is the immunity conferred by being vaccinated and then experiencing a COVID infection post-vaccination as strong and/or durable as that of natural immunity due to infection prior to being vaccinated? 

A booster might give more protection against infection, but for what duration and given that the vaccine seems to be pretty durable at reducing hospitalization/death rates, would it be smarter to simply take my chances and try to get more durable immunity now that I'm vaccinated, by exposure in the wild? 

I don't know... I'll probably end up getting the booster, but I wish we knew more about the relative immunity conferred by natural infection when already vaccinated. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 19, 2021, 12:04:26 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 19, 2021, 09:59:38 AM
Yes here in Florida they are very proactive and will let me know as soon as it’s available, at which time I will go right ahead and get it. 
You can get it right now. I got mine 2 weeks ago and I'm only 54.

First two Moderna, booster was Pfizer. No complications. Not even a sore arm. I'm drunk on antibodies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 19, 2021, 03:47:42 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 19, 2021, 12:04:26 PM
You can get it right now. I got mine 2 weeks ago and I'm only 54.

First two Moderna, booster was Pfizer. No complications. Not even a sore arm. I'm drunk on antibodies.
Yep.  Got an email 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 22, 2021, 12:29:10 PM
Getting kids vaccinated could make a real difference going forward, according to estimates by the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, a collection of university and medical research organizations that consolidates models of how the pandemic may unfold. The hub’s latest estimates show that for this November through March 12, 2022, vaccinating 5- to 11-year-olds would avert about 430,000 COVID cases in the overall U.S. population if no new variant arose. If a variant 50% more transmissible than delta showed up in late fall, 860,000 cases would be averted, “a big impact,” said project co-leader Katriona Shea, of Pennsylvania State University.

Delta remains dominant for now, accounting for more than 99% of analyzed coronavirus specimens in the United States. Scientists aren’t sure exactly why. Dr. Stuart Campbell Ray, an infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins University, said it may be intrinsically more infectious, or it may be evading at least in part the protection people get from vaccines or having been infected before.


https://apnews.com/article/how0covid-shots-for-kids-prevent-variants-0dd394ddd053e0efb3f3137dba2ad470 (https://apnews.com/article/how0covid-shots-for-kids-prevent-variants-0dd394ddd053e0efb3f3137dba2ad470)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 22, 2021, 12:39:48 PM
I don't think 5-11 year olds are enough of a threat vector to infecting adults, to make a significant impact in future spread.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 22, 2021, 12:43:37 PM
some scientists agree with you, some don't
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 22, 2021, 12:45:08 PM
1 positive case on the ship. Nobody else has it. I do not know who the person is.

They used restaurant and bar records, as well as security cameras, to locate all those who came in contact. None of those people have it.

Live life, people. 

Live life.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 22, 2021, 01:14:23 PM
I'm living large today.  Going to mow the leaves in the yard, then winterize the rider.  clean up the gatage

if I accomplish all this..... rewarded with a trip to Old Chicago taproom for happy hour at 3pm!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 22, 2021, 01:28:01 PM
My 9 yo will have her second shot on or around Dec 4, and then +2 weeks after that everyone in my household will be fully vaccinated. Except the dog. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 22, 2021, 01:28:41 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 22, 2021, 01:14:23 PM
I'm living large today.  Going to mow the leaves in the yard, then winterize the rider.  clean up the gatage

if I accomplish all this..... rewarded with a trip to Old Chicago taproom for happy hour at 3pm!!!
They almost make deep dish pizza!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 22, 2021, 01:39:46 PM
On another forum I brought up the Israeli study about vaccinated vs unvaccinated strength and durability of immunity. 

Specifically it was brought up in the context of how necessary it is to get the booster as opposed to taking my chances with COVID in the wild, given that I've gotten my 2 shots and that protection against hospitalization/death seems to be far more durable than immunity from infection. 

The below was a response from someone whose depth of thought on the matter is worthy of respect, and so I thought I'd share it here...


Quote
Factcheck.org covers some of the issues concerning that Israeli study. (https://www.factcheck.org/2021/09/scicheck-instagram-post-missing-context-about-israeli-study-on-covid-19-natural-immunity/) They mention two studies at the end of The Study's Limitations that arrive at different conclusions than the Israeli study, plus several other issues with the study.

A little more disagreement can be found at Quora (https://www.quora.com/A-recent-Israeli-study-claims-immunity-following-COVID-19-is-stronger-than-vaccine-induced-immunity-How-solid-is-this-conclusion/answer/Dr-Jo-6), where the matched case aspect of the study is addressed.

The study is published here (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v1.full-text). It's not particularly long. It's not peer reviewed AFAIK.
Some things I note.
1. They conduct multivariate logistic regression analyses. They don't mention whether they are using a yes or a no in the four dependent variables they study under each model. It would be evident in the code, but you have to request it and it's in Python and I don't use Python anyway. Logistic regression models model binary dependent variables (yes/no, success/failure, infected/not infected). Minor point, they probably have it coded correctly but it is easy to make a mistake because software may default to alphabetical order for instance and it might not be the order one wants for the odds ratios.
2. I mention 1. because they keep ignoring that age is significant or age and SES is significant when they so they were no significant covariates. It's the way they write it out that's irksome. They picked the covariates because they thought they would be important but when they do find the important ones, they brush them off. More importantly, they did not use interaction terms at all. There could have been age differences that depended on whether the person was vaccinated.
3. They only present one table from each of their models 1-3 but they say they used 4 different dependent variables which means there should be 4 tables for each model. I would be particularly interested in seeing the tables where death was the independent variable. "We evaluated four SARS-CoV-2-related outcomes, or second events: documented RT-PCR confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19, COVID-19-related hospitalization and death." Which is to say, yes or no for each of those four types of events, with there being four analyses for Model 1-3. This makes me question greatly their expertise in analysis.
4. I don't normally do matched case analyses, and I don't recall the nuances when using them. I think perhaps though they should have used survival analysis (specifically Cox Proportional hazards) instead of logistic regression. Survival analysis definitely should be used for modeling death, it's the better choice.
5. They have treated SES as a continuous variable. It is based on several parameters and then an index is created from 1 to 10. It's extremely doubtful the index should be treated as a continuous variable. That would make their model misspecified. If I was reviewing it, I would make them rerun it correctly as I wouldn't expect they could justify the index properly as continuous. There is no reference cited for the calculation of the index.
6. They only looked at the Pfizer vaccine.

I put this one separate.
7. There's a bunch of dead people not included in Models 1 and 2. The vaccinated are all the people who did not get Covid (naive) vs. the people who survived Covid. The weak ones have died and the infected ones have had a regular case. In other words, natural immunity looks good in this study unless you are one of the weak ones.

I would be very interested to see how this study does after peer review. Some medical journals are really lax though, they just report basic statistics in short journal articles and call it a day.

I did mention a ways back a couple studies looking at comparisons between vaxed and unvaxed groups,.

It doesn't make a lot of sense though to forgo the booster if you feel it is endemic and you haven't gotten Covid yet. The vaccines do help prevent the disease. If you are one of the unlucky (think weak) ones it would be extending your life in exchange for a short pharmacy visit. Or you might still end up in the hospital anyway which is still a bonus in some ways but sucks in general. Lots of younger people who thought they were strong and didn't get vaccinated and are now dead.
Just food for thought. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 22, 2021, 02:44:02 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 22, 2021, 12:43:37 PM
some scientists agree with you, some don't
Don't really need scientists for this one, we have close to two years of data in school systems all over the world.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 22, 2021, 04:26:16 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 22, 2021, 01:28:41 PM
They almost make deep dish pizza!

Detroit-style deep dish pizza - new menu item!!!

(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/257644229_10158617987012239_3377996060286100382_n.jpg?_nc_cat=104&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=9267fe&_nc_ohc=jFC3OrxpEW4AX_LyQQq&tn=_MnT8OkIfzNoswba&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=68d47ebe0b92b4c9f1a434a892b2fa03&oe=61A186B6)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 22, 2021, 04:40:38 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 22, 2021, 04:26:16 PM
Detroit-style deep dish pizza - new menu item!!!

(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/257644229_10158617987012239_3377996060286100382_n.jpg?_nc_cat=104&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=9267fe&_nc_ohc=jFC3OrxpEW4AX_LyQQq&tn=_MnT8OkIfzNoswba&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=68d47ebe0b92b4c9f1a434a892b2fa03&oe=61A186B6)
the only detroit pizza there is brother....the original buddys at 6 mile and conant st...


(https://i.imgur.com/7BUSUq3.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 22, 2021, 04:44:56 PM
Looks tasty, I'd eat that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 22, 2021, 04:52:19 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 22, 2021, 04:44:56 PM
Looks tasty, I'd eat that.
heard a couple guys from Detroit have opened a buddys knock off pizza joint out in Austin. Heard it's blown up and become very popular out there and they have multiple locations. think it's called Via 313. have you heard of it? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 22, 2021, 05:14:03 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on November 22, 2021, 04:52:19 PM
heard a couple guys from Detroit have opened a buddys knock off pizza joint out in Austin. Heard it's blown up and become very popular out there and they have multiple locations. think it's called Via 313. have you heard of it?
For sure, I've had it many times, it's delicious.  I don't think I'd be exaggerating if I said it has become "wildly popular" down here.

But I didn't want to bring it up, since you asserted that the only real Detroit pizza was at Buddy's... ;)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 22, 2021, 05:19:38 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 22, 2021, 05:14:03 PM
For sure, I've had it many times, it's delicious.  I don't think I'd be exaggerating if I said it has become "wildly popular" down here.

But I didn't want to bring it up, since you asserted that the only real Detroit pizza was at Buddy's... ;)

Lol. Buddy's on 6 mile and conant st in detroit is the originator. they are the mecca of that style. bunch of immigrant sicilians owned the joint, they created that style pizza and buddys has been around since the 1930's.

there's been lot of copy cats, but buddys the OG. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 22, 2021, 05:20:19 PM

Quote from: utee94 on November 22, 2021, 05:14:03 PM
For sure, I've had it many times, it's delicious.  I don't think I'd be exaggerating if I said it has become "wildly popular" down here.

But I didn't want to bring it up, since you asserted that the only real Detroit pizza was at Buddy's... ;)


You'll just throw it in the smoker anyway and and wonder if Apple/Pecan/Mesquite work best
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 22, 2021, 05:21:29 PM
Is Buddy the guy who started using those pans from the auto factories?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 22, 2021, 05:25:04 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 22, 2021, 05:21:29 PM
Is Buddy the guy who started using those pans from the auto factories?
Gus Guerra was the dudes name. he actually sold buddys and then went and started a buddys knock off called cloverleaf. there's loui's in hazel park- which was started by a guy who used to work at buddys. and then you have jets- which is more of a carryout/fast food pizza chain that makes the square detroit deep dish- those brothers also worked at buddys.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 22, 2021, 05:28:41 PM
Yeah, Jets made it down here before the Via 313 guys did, but it's really not the same product at all.  Jet's is very chain-like fast food, while Via 313 comes across as the real deal.  Other than the shape, I wouldn't call them the same style of pizza.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 22, 2021, 05:42:21 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 22, 2021, 05:28:41 PM
Yeah, Jets made it down here before the Via 313 guys did, but it's really not the same product at all.  Jet's is very chain-like fast food, while Via 313 comes across as the real deal.  Other than the shape, I wouldn't call them the same style of pizza.
yeah, jets is the fast food version of the detroit style pizza. they are like a papa johns or pizza hut- but are much better quality than either of those- but still not the real deal. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 22, 2021, 06:22:24 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on November 22, 2021, 05:19:38 PM
Lol. Buddy's on 6 mile and conant st in detroit is the originator. they are the mecca of that style. bunch of immigrant sicilians owned the joint, they created that style pizza and buddys has been around since the 1930's.

there's been lot of copy cats, but buddys the OG.
My all time favorite pizza.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 22, 2021, 08:36:31 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on November 22, 2021, 04:40:38 PM
the only detroit pizza there is brother....the original buddys at 6 mile and conant st...


(https://i.imgur.com/7BUSUq3.jpg)

I'm certain it's no where near the same but the pics have the same angle
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 22, 2021, 08:45:18 PM
I didn't try the Detroit style knock off

had one of the individula pub pizza happy hour specials - $5

pizza wasn't bad, beer was good
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 23, 2021, 07:09:34 AM

In Minnesota, which publishes detailed Covid data, the death rate for fully vaccinated people under 50 during the Delta surge this year was 0.0 per 100,000 (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/zdT3Uk0tifRZlbClumfa6w~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjf1VVP0TiaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuaGVhbHRoLnN0YXRlLm1uLnVzL2Rpc2Vhc2VzL2Nvcm9uYXZpcnVzL3N0YXRzL2Nvdmlkd2Vla2x5NDYyMS5wZGY_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIxMTEyMyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD00NjA4MyZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTE1MzM2ODkxMCZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTc1MTI1JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0QgphjFXQnGEq9v5GUhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) — meaning, so few people died that the rate rounds to zero.

Washington State is another place that publishes statistics by age and vaccination status. In its most recent report (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/XnfhY-vhw50kKq2uduWbQQ~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjf1VVP4QCAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmRvaC53YS5nb3YvUG9ydGFscy8xL0RvY3VtZW50cy8xNjAwL2Nvcm9uYXZpcnVzL2RhdGEtdGFibGVzLzQyMS0wMTAtQ2FzZXNJbk5vdEZ1bGx5VmFjY2luYXRlZC5wZGY_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIxMTEyMyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD00NjA4MyZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTE1MzM2ODkxMCZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTc1MTI1JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0QgphjFXQnGEq9v5GUhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~), Washington did not even include a death rate for fully vaccinated residents under 65. It was too low to be meaningful.
Hospitalization rates are also very low for vaccinated people under 65. In Minnesota during the Delta surge, the average weekly hospitalization rate for vaccinated residents between 18 and 49 was about 1 per 100,000.
(https://ci5.googleusercontent.com/proxy/wOXkV5ETI_UzdI-nXr1GFND1HwlYml3QxCw0uLrluwjvFSVBs3_s9vuQpQqsgeU7mxmVorBQmQrQbeAaOVRRihPiJ-Wmv4F5U8Fe5RH01vpBbiVJO4VR_haZQjTM6gSN8Dcjh32OdXJvB0qNhvFAubzikSrbNSlvc7Jn4GUMCsCbQJhU41sA6CBdPqtkgw=s0-d-e1-ft#https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021/11/23/multimedia/23-MORNING-MN-COVID-HOSP/23-MORNING-MN-COVID-HOSP-articleLarge-v3.png)
Source: Minnesota Department of Health
To put that in perspective, I looked up data for some other medical problems. During a typical week in the U.S., nearly 3 people per 100,000 visit an emergency room because of a bicycle crash. The rate for vehicle crashes is about 20 per 100,000.
Covid is the threat on many of our minds. But for most people under 65, the virus may present less risk than a car trip to visit relatives this week. “The vaccination, I think, changes everything,” Dustin Johnston, 40, a photographer in Michigan who plans to gather with family, told The Times (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/wkOMfvDhqb1FlRs4gFKH1w~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjf1VVP4QSAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tLzIwMjEvMTEvMjIvdXMvdXMtY292aWQtY2FzZXMtcmlzaW5nLXRoYW5rc2dpdmluZy5odG1sP2FjdGlvbj1jbGljayZjYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjExMTIzJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTQ2MDgzJm1vZHVsZT1SZWxhdGVkTGlua3Mmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcGd0eXBlPUFydGljbGUmcmVnaV9pZD0xNTMzNjg5MTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD03NTEyNSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9OGU1ZDJhMmI1ZTQ4YTY5NjU2MTkyY2MzYWYwYTkwMGNXA255dEIKYYxV0JxhKvb-RlIRamNkb29tOUBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~).


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 23, 2021, 09:19:02 AM
why can't this be the clear message?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 23, 2021, 09:27:41 AM
Too many voices out there with agenda, I think, and too many trying to cloud the main issue (which wasn't all that clear in the first months).

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 23, 2021, 09:38:45 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 23, 2021, 09:19:02 AM
why can't this be the clear message?
https://youtu.be/efHCdKb5UWc
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 23, 2021, 09:48:24 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on November 23, 2021, 09:38:45 AM
https://youtu.be/efHCdKb5UWc
comic book movies pretty much suck in general in my opinion- but god damn those Nolan Batman movies were amazing. Especially the first two. Such terrific actors in them. Liam Neeson, Christian Bale, Morgan Freeman, Michael Cane, Gary Oldman, Heath Ledger.....god damn man.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 23, 2021, 09:53:35 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 23, 2021, 09:19:02 AM
why can't this be the clear message?
It is. Radio, TV, internet, media, the message is "get vaccinated". 

But some people have dunked their head so far up social media's ass that their ears are full of shit, and the message can't get through. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 23, 2021, 10:23:39 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 23, 2021, 09:53:35 AM
It is. Radio, TV, internet, media, the message is "get vaccinated".

But some people have dunked their head so far up social media's ass that their ears are full of shit, and the message can't get through.
Like I keep saying, there is also masking messaging still going on.  It allows the anti-vax, anti-mask, anti-reason folks a chance to complain about something.

Therefore it is NOT a clear message. 

The message should be, and should have been since last January-- get vaccinated and you don't have to do any of the other stuff.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 23, 2021, 10:28:31 AM
apparently the handwashing sanitizing message has been dropped

it's OK to lick public toilets again?  asking for a friend
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 23, 2021, 10:33:26 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 23, 2021, 10:28:31 AM
apparently the handwashing sanitizing message has been dropped

it's OK to lick public toilets again?  asking for a friend
I still hear it, but the past two years have proven out pretty well that delivery by surface contact isn't really much of a thing.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 23, 2021, 10:35:48 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 23, 2021, 09:53:35 AM
It is. Radio, TV, internet, media, the message is "get vaccinated".

But some people have dunked their head so far up social media's ass that their ears are full of shit, and the message can't get through.
it's not social media that is the problem.

people rightly- have zero confidence in Fauci- who has been dishonest at every single turn. the guy should resign or be fired- and they should get someone else in there to apologize for the previous guy- and try to rebuild trust and regain credibility. 

you also have political parties that have politicized a virus and vaccine to the Nth degree. when bad orange man was still in office you had people like pelosi, biden, harris - all saying things like they don't trust this vaccine blah blah blah. now they are the ones touting it. they were speaking out of both sides of their mouth- this does not exactly instill public trust in their leaders/public institutions when they do shit like this. 

the problem is also the mainstream media- who constantly use scare tactics and fear porn- and people see through it and are tired of it. and then you have morons in the media with tv shows like don lemon saying people who aren't vaccinated should be ostracized, not allowed into super markets or participate in society. nobody likes being talked down to, ridiculed, or have condescending elites in the media try and tell them what to do or how to live their lives. this just pushed people away in droves.

the problem is with our public institutions/leaders and the mainstream media. they continue to fail the public and they are so god awful that much of the public is just done with them. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 23, 2021, 10:55:33 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 23, 2021, 10:23:39 AM
Like I keep saying, there is also masking messaging still going on.  It allows the anti-vax, anti-mask, anti-reason folks a chance to complain about something.

Therefore it is NOT a clear message. 

The message should be, and should have been since last January-- get vaccinated and you don't have to do any of the other stuff.
I get ya. But the problem with the "carrot and stick" approach is that nobody enforces the stick. 

Here in Orange County, the official rule is that vaccinated people can go about their business, at stores, restaurants, workplaces, etc, without a mask and those who are unvaccinated must be masked. It's not enforced. Nobody complains, though. The vaccinated are just happy they don't have to wear masks. The unvaccinated aren't wearing masks and aren't going to complain that it's not being enforced on them. So the policy is stupid because it's not enforced, nobody gets the "stick", so there's no "carrot" as incentive to actually get vaxxed.

The alternate is going on in LA County. Because it wasn't being enforced, they created rules that basically said you can't engage in civil society if you're unvaccinated. Not "if you go into a restaurant you have to wear a mask", but "you can't go into a restaurant unless you prove your vax status." So everyone has to walk around "showing their papers" just to go into a store, restaurant, etc, and then they STILL make you wear a mask. So because they can't enforce the "stick" without draconian measures, there's no "carrot". 

So I get the message, and that's the message we have in Orange County... Get the vax, and you don't have to wear the mask. And people said "I'm not getting the vax, and I'm not going to wear a mask, because nobody will make me."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 23, 2021, 10:58:22 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on November 23, 2021, 10:35:48 AM
it's not social media that is the problem.

people rightly- have zero confidence in Fauci- who has been dishonest at every single turn. the guy should resign or be fired- and they should get someone else in there to apologize for the previous guy- and try to rebuild trust and regain credibility.

you also have political parties that have politicized a virus and vaccine to the Nth degree. when bad orange man was still in office you had people like pelosi, biden, harris - all saying things like they don't trust this vaccine blah blah blah. now they are the ones touting it. they were speaking out of both sides of their mouth- this does not exactly instill public trust in their leaders/public institutions when they do shit like this.

the problem is also the mainstream media- who constantly use scare tactics and fear porn- and people see through it and are tired of it. and then you have morons in the media with tv shows like don lemon saying people who aren't vaccinated should be ostracized, not allowed into super markets or participate in society. nobody likes being talked down to, ridiculed, or have condescending elites in the media try and tell them what to do or how to live their lives. this just pushed people away in droves.

the problem is with our public institutions/leaders and the mainstream media. they continue to fail the public and they are so god awful that much of the public is just done with them.
So your argument is that there's no point in there being "a message", because the people whose ears are full of shit aren't going to listen to it from any entity capable of delivering the message.

So who do they turn to? Uncle Lou on Facebook? Alex Jones? Literally any crackpot who isn't credentialed, because credentialism is what they object to?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 23, 2021, 11:17:09 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 23, 2021, 10:55:33 AM
I get ya. But the problem with the "carrot and stick" approach is that nobody enforces the stick.

Here in Orange County, the official rule is that vaccinated people can go about their business, at stores, restaurants, workplaces, etc, without a mask and those who are unvaccinated must be masked. It's not enforced. Nobody complains, though. The vaccinated are just happy they don't have to wear masks. The unvaccinated aren't wearing masks and aren't going to complain that it's not being enforced on them. So the policy is stupid because it's not enforced, nobody gets the "stick", so there's no "carrot" as incentive to actually get vaxxed.

The alternate is going on in LA County. Because it wasn't being enforced, they created rules that basically said you can't engage in civil society if you're unvaccinated. Not "if you go into a restaurant you have to wear a mask", but "you can't go into a restaurant unless you prove your vax status." So everyone has to walk around "showing their papers" just to go into a store, restaurant, etc, and then they STILL make you wear a mask. So because they can't enforce the "stick" without draconian measures, there's no "carrot".

So I get the message, and that's the message we have in Orange County... Get the vax, and you don't have to wear the mask. And people said "I'm not getting the vax, and I'm not going to wear a mask, because nobody will make me."

And that's fine.  Those people aren't ever going to get the vax anyway. It's a free country (outside of LA County, I guess).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 23, 2021, 11:19:59 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 23, 2021, 11:17:09 AM
And that's fine.  Those people aren't ever going to get the vax anyway. It's a free country (outside of LA County, I guess).
Ok then. So your point is that the message doesn't matter either. Tell someone that if they get the vax they don't have to wear a mask, but since there's no enforcement, it's an empty promise/threat. 

So the message should simply be "get the vax."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 23, 2021, 11:20:20 AM
I will say that at this point, I don't even think about bringing a mask with me anywhere. 

Most places around here have signs up that say "Please wear a mask" and then in much smaller letters "No mask required if vaccinated."

But if a place REALLY wants me to wear a mask, then they're going to need to start providing the mask for me. Because it's no longer something I even think about taking with me.

This would obviously  be different for a flight, of course.  I haven't yet flown anywhere, and if I did under the current restrictions, of course I'd bring a mask.

But for local businesses and such, if they really want folks to wear masks, they'll need to start providing them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 23, 2021, 11:23:02 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 23, 2021, 11:19:59 AM
Ok then. So your point is that the message doesn't matter either. Tell someone that if they get the vax they don't have to wear a mask, but since there's no enforcement, it's an empty promise/threat.

So the message should simply be "get the vax."
I believe the second part of the message would have worked on some people, 11 months ago.  But to MDot's point, now, there's so much water under the bridge, that the lines are drawn and nobody's going to change their minds.

So now? Yeah, the only message should continue to be, Get The Vax.  Anything beyond that confuses the message and gives the assholes an additional item to complain about.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 23, 2021, 11:30:13 AM
Blaming the media for one's own bad decisions is a cop-out at best and rank cowardice at worst. No one made you do it. 

As for the declining faith in public institutions...

https://youtu.be/xhYJS80MgYA
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 23, 2021, 11:46:58 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on November 23, 2021, 11:30:13 AM
Blaming the media for one's own bad decisions is a cop-out at best and rank cowardice at worst. No one made you do it.

As for the declining faith in public institutions...

https://youtu.be/xhYJS80MgYA

I think it's a little naive to think that the media can't or don't influence public opinion and therefore public actions.

Should they have that power?  No.  Ideally people would seek out multiple sources of information and come to their own conclusions without the influence of media bias.

But that's not how the world works now, and it's not how the world has EVER worked.

And that Ronnie Reagan quote is one of the best all-time.  That's the last great president the USA ever had.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 23, 2021, 11:49:25 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on November 23, 2021, 11:30:13 AM
Blaming the media for one's own bad decisions is a cop-out at best and rank cowardice at worst. No one made you do it.
There has been a long-term effort to delegitimize the media, academia, most public institutions, and [obviously] the government/politicians over several decades now.
 
It's easy to do. You don't have to be right. You don't have to offer a compelling message. You don't have to be consistent and non-hypocritical yourself. You don't have to be virtuous. All you have to do is point out when they're wrong, hypocritical, etc, any time it's spotted. And with ANY large institution, you'll find countless examples of it. 

If you keep doing it, eventually nobody trusts anything, and you've won. Because they will look to anyone who is NOT a part of that group as independent and trustworthy, so simply by virtue of being outside the establishment you have a ready and willing audience for whatever you want to peddle. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 23, 2021, 11:55:14 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 23, 2021, 11:49:25 AM
There has been a long-term effort to delegitimize the media, academia, most public institutions, and [obviously] the government/politicians over several decades now.
 
It's easy to do. You don't have to be right. You don't have to offer a compelling message. You don't have to be consistent and non-hypocritical yourself. You don't have to be virtuous. All you have to do is point out when they're wrong, hypocritical, etc, any time it's spotted. And with ANY large institution, you'll find countless examples of it.

If you keep doing it, eventually nobody trusts anything, and you've won. Because they will look to anyone who is NOT a part of that group as independent and trustworthy, so simply by virtue of being outside the establishment you have a ready and willing audience for whatever you want to peddle.


I don't disagree, but for the MSM at least, it's largely their own fault, for pandering to one political side or the other.  Every time they get caught out either pushing a questionable agenda or outright lying, which has happened fairly frequently over the past couple of decades, they're the ones who are at fault for delegitimizing their own establishment.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 23, 2021, 12:31:42 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 23, 2021, 11:46:58 AM
Ideally people would seek out multiple sources of information and come to their own conclusions without the influence of media bias.

But that's not how the world works now, and it's not how the world has EVER worked.
Exactly. People, or "the masses" as OAM might say, have a desire to be led. 

So the person most effective at tearing down "the media" becomes a de facto leader.  

Quote from: utee94 on November 23, 2021, 11:55:14 AM
I don't disagree, but for the MSM at least, it's largely their own fault, for pandering to one political side or the other.  Every time they get caught out either pushing a questionable agenda or outright lying, which has happened fairly frequently over the past couple of decades, they're the ones who are at fault for delegitimizing their own establishment.
But that's the problem. "The MSM" isn't A thing. It's a collection of individuals. A LARGE collection, over a span of decades. 

Imagine if we tried to delegitimize college football as an institution based on the various times we've shown that coaches/programs cheated, or acted contrary to ethical or moral grounds, or lied about how they were all-in with an institution only to leave for a different program the next week. 

We have DECADES of college football examples of all of these things. But we're college football fans. So we overlook it and point to the bad apples as bad apples and to the liars as liars. Someone on the opposite side, who perhaps considers colleges sponsoring football programs to be ridiculous and inconsistent with the goals of higher education will point to those same examples as evidence of systemic rot and say the institution itself is corrupt. 

We've done it with the MSM, because we catch some of them in lies/duplicity/hypocrisy. We've done it with politicians, because we catch some of them in crimes/graft/hypocrisy. We've done it with religion, i.e. Jim & Tammy Faye and the televangelists, the Catholic Church, etc. We've done it with business, i.e. Enron, Worldcom, etc. 

You give me any large institution, over a period of two+ decades, and I can destroy trust in it. Wouldn't even be hard. All it takes is a concerted effort to find cracks and exploit every single one of them as loudly as I can, until the world believes that surface aberrations are evidence of structural unsoundness. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 23, 2021, 12:56:21 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 23, 2021, 11:49:25 AM
There has been a long-term effort to delegitimize the media, academia, most public institutions, and [obviously] the government/politicians over several decades now.
Hence why I offered up the excerpt from Ronald Reagan's press conference. It's a problem when the de-legitimization comes from the top.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on November 23, 2021, 02:33:11 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 23, 2021, 11:55:14 AM
I don't disagree, but for the MSM at least, it's largely their own fault, for pandering to one political side or the other.  Every time they get caught out either pushing a questionable agenda or outright lying, which has happened fairly frequently over the past couple of decades, they're the ones who are at fault for delegitimizing their own establishment.



I don't think that's exactly the case. Political forces have worked for a long time to erode that. And once you plant the idea "that institution is out to get you," any missteps reinforce the belief. With millions of stories per day, there will be missteps. With the fact that newspapers and TV channels would run quotes from randos on the street and newspapers always had a mess of opinion writers one wouldn't like, it became easy to find those moments. 

Throw in the psychology of remembering the bad and not the mundane, and the capitalistic opportunities to either capture a more opinionated audience or siphon an audience by tearing something else down, and it was fait accompli. The only way the MSM could have held onto that illusion of legitimacy would be thousands of outlets being near-perfect on millions of pieces daily, and in a world where we can see it all, that was always going to come down.

(Not to mention, agenda pushing and such are part of the history of media. A lot of papers were founded with pushing an interest in mind. The Chicago trib was basically founded to push one party. People just bought into a certain kind of idealism for a while)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on November 23, 2021, 02:35:31 PM
I heard a quote a while back, someone said the most important belief is the one you WANT to believe. 

People are consuming what they want, and they're going to the places best suited to make them feel strong things. There's plenty of levelheaded messaging. But a lot of folks want to ride the waves of fear, anger, whatever else. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 23, 2021, 02:49:26 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on November 23, 2021, 02:33:11 PM

(Not to mention, agenda pushing and such are part of the history of media. A lot of papers were founded with pushing an interest in mind. The Chicago trib was basically founded to push one party. People just bought into a certain kind of idealism for a while)
The wife and I visited Hearst Castle a few years back. I knew of William Randolph Hearst from AP US History classes, but didn't really KNOW of his history in any sort of real detail. 

It spurred me to read The Chief (https://smile.amazon.com/Chief-Life-William-Randolph-Hearst-ebook/dp/B009XGM4BU/), his biography. 

Highly recommend it. It's fascinating. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 23, 2021, 02:59:51 PM
I visited Hearst Castle a few years back.

1976
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 23, 2021, 03:03:24 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 23, 2021, 11:46:58 AM

And that Ronnie Reagan quote is one of the best all-time.  That's the last great president the USA ever had.
His trickle down economics didn't help the working class,charming though he was
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 23, 2021, 03:26:59 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 23, 2021, 03:03:24 PM
His trickle down economics didn't help the working class,charming though he was
Hell of a lot more to being president than domestic monetary policy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 23, 2021, 03:29:07 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on November 23, 2021, 02:33:11 PM

I don't think that's exactly the case. Political forces have worked for a long time to erode that. And once you plant the idea "that institution is out to get you," any missteps reinforce the belief. W

They've been active, driving forces in the race to the bottom, for the sake of eyeballs/clicks/profits.  This is a situation of their own making.  I shed no tears for them, but I weep for America.

(not really, I'm not that dramatic about it, it just sounded like a fun thing to write)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 23, 2021, 03:30:40 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 23, 2021, 03:26:59 PM
Hell of a lot more to being president than domestic monetary policy.
Gosh I kinda thought that how you got into office,sans this last debacle
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 23, 2021, 03:33:32 PM
Back in the day, newspapers were nearly all clearly partisan.  Candidates didn't campaign, generally, the newspapers did it for them.  A read up on the election of 1876 was edifying for me, much what was, is today, and vice versa.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 23, 2021, 03:34:09 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 23, 2021, 03:30:40 PM
Gosh I kinda thought that how you got into office,sans this last debacle

The pendulum swings back and forth, as it ever has.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 23, 2021, 04:49:28 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 23, 2021, 03:03:24 PM
His trickle down economics didn't help the working class,charming though he was
Take it to the political thread
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 23, 2021, 04:52:25 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 23, 2021, 03:34:09 PM
The pendulum swings back and forth, as it ever has.
Perhaps,but catering to wealthy special interests after assuring the bread/butter working class he was all that doesn't come across as last good president IMO.He could have finally won an Oscar though - finally
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 23, 2021, 04:53:35 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 23, 2021, 11:46:58 AM
I think it's a little naive to think that the media can't or don't influence public opinion and therefore public actions.

Are you suggesting that ESPN has influence regarding the SEC?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 23, 2021, 04:54:14 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 23, 2021, 04:49:28 PM
Take it to the political thread
Just responding to someone who is doing your job - Pot Stirring 😁
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 23, 2021, 04:59:18 PM
Well I was going to post something about the lack of clarity and messaging hasn't changed since we have a new leader in the oval office but thought said pot stirrer might go off on me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 23, 2021, 05:02:29 PM
I thought you had connections around here.We'll have to start the KEG PARTY and take this country back....but 1st the board
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 23, 2021, 05:03:06 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 23, 2021, 04:52:25 PM
Perhaps,but catering to wealthy special interests after assuring the bread/butter working class he was all that doesn't come across as last good president IMO.He could have finally won an Oscar though - finally
As I said before, domestic monetary policy is far from the only determining factor in a good presidency, and in my opinion it's among the least important focus areas for a president. 
But it's still a free country, outside of LA County anyway, so you can have your opinion, even if it's a shitty one. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 23, 2021, 05:06:23 PM
Special Interest 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 23, 2021, 05:06:43 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 23, 2021, 05:03:06 PM
As I said before, domestic monetary policy is far from the only determining factor in a good presidency, and in my opinion it's among the least important focus areas for a president.
But it's still a free country, outside of LA County anyway, so you can have your opinion, even if it's a shitty one. :)
Trickle down was fiscal policy, not monetary policy. 

Just sayin'.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 23, 2021, 05:33:59 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 23, 2021, 05:06:43 PM
Trickle down was fiscal policy, not monetary policy.

Just sayin'.
Yeah that's true.


Now you can go eff yourself, too, California commie.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 23, 2021, 05:42:16 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 23, 2021, 05:33:59 PM
Yeah that's true.


Now you can go eff yourself, too, California commie.
That's rich. Someone from Austin calling someone else a commie...

What, is this some sort of Leninism/Trotskyism dispute?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 23, 2021, 05:45:40 PM
Pillow Fight - in your respective corners
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 23, 2021, 08:29:02 PM
utee isn't really living in Austin

he's grown into someone more right leaning than those hopeless liberals
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 23, 2021, 08:34:47 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 23, 2021, 08:29:02 PM
utee isn't really living in Austin

he's grown into someone more right leaning than those hopeless liberals
Apparently he wasn't doing his part to keep it weird.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 23, 2021, 11:57:35 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 23, 2021, 08:34:47 PM
Apparently he wasn't doing his part to keep it weird.
Amen, brutha.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on November 24, 2021, 12:24:09 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 23, 2021, 11:46:58 AM

And that Ronnie Reagan quote is one of the best all-time. 
It's a masterful piece of branding for sure. Makes the old government seem like one thing, and sort of cuts out some rather large parts of government that people really want to trust. Just great command of message to create a perception. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 24, 2021, 07:24:10 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/FFp8122.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 24, 2021, 08:43:50 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on November 24, 2021, 12:24:09 AM
It's a masterful piece of branding for sure. Makes the old government seem like one thing, and sort of cuts out some rather large parts of government that people really want to trust. Just great command of message to create a perception.
And it works especially well because it's completely true!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 24, 2021, 08:53:48 AM
Germany considers a full Covid lockdown and mandatory vaccines (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/24/germany-considers-a-full-covid-lockdown-and-mandatory-vaccines.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 24, 2021, 09:04:35 AM
St. Thomas was interesting. Many of the locals were creaming at us to put masks on - outside. It is not required there, but these people are clearly not educated. 

Not sure of the vaccine status there either. Lots of conflicting data out there, but I do know that travel to there is not advised if you are not vaccinated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 24, 2021, 09:30:33 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 24, 2021, 08:43:50 AM
And it works especially well because it's completely true!
(https://i.imgur.com/NkWR8gF.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 24, 2021, 09:31:35 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 24, 2021, 09:04:35 AM
St. Thomas was interesting. Many of the locals were creaming at us to put masks on - outside. It is not required there, but these people are clearly not educated.
Yanquis Pigdogs
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on November 24, 2021, 09:35:39 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 24, 2021, 08:43:50 AM
And it works especially well because it's completely true!

The exclamation point makes the think this is less earnest than I first thought. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 24, 2021, 09:38:59 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on November 24, 2021, 09:35:39 AM
The exclamation point makes the think this is less earnest than I first thought.
There are plenty of people that believe in small government.  Regardless of how you interpret his original intent, I am capable of applying the sentiment both to the government that preceded the Reagan administration, and the Reagan administration itself.

Lots of clever people believe whole-heartedly in the message itself.

So yes, it's completely true.  Exclamation point. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on November 24, 2021, 09:49:42 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 24, 2021, 09:38:59 AM
There are plenty of people that believe in small government.  Regardless of how you interpret his original intent, I am capable of applying the sentiment both to the government that preceded the Reagan administration, and the Reagan administration itself.

Lots of clever people believe whole-heartedly in the message itself.

So yes, it's completely true.  Exclamation point. :)
Gotcha. Tone online is always tough.

Anyways, it’s good branding because a lot of folks believe strongly in the message also want people to be the opposite of terrified of basically the most common government “helpers.” Maybe you’re not such a person, which is interesting in its own way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 24, 2021, 09:56:45 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on November 24, 2021, 09:49:42 AM
Gotcha. Tone online is always tough.

Anyways, it’s good branding because a lot of folks believe strongly in the message also want people to be the opposite of terrified of basically the most common government “helpers.” Maybe you’re not such a person, which is interesting in its own way.

I'm an enigma wrapped within a mystery engulfed in a riddle surrounded by a conundrum.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 24, 2021, 10:02:29 AM
wearing a hockey sweater with a black cowboy hat on top
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 24, 2021, 10:03:12 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 24, 2021, 10:02:29 AM
wearing a hockey sweater with a black cowboy hat on top
A Longhorn hockey sweater no less-- and we don't even have a hockey team!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 24, 2021, 10:07:13 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 24, 2021, 09:56:45 AM
I'm an enigma wrapped within a mystery engulfed in a riddle surrounded by a conundrum.
Pretty sure that's not how Winston put it but


(https://media.tenor.com/images/e4ae71099eeeccdaaf1495af637ac4c7/tenor.gif)     
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 24, 2021, 12:09:32 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 24, 2021, 10:07:13 AM
Pretty sure that's not how Winston put it but


(https://media.tenor.com/images/e4ae71099eeeccdaaf1495af637ac4c7/tenor.gif)   
I think his quote was something involving a bodyguard of lies.

If misdirection is your thing, read Bodyguard of Lies by Anthony Cave Brown. It's about the entire intelligence operation behind D-Day.

https://www.amazon.com/Bodyguard-Lies-Extraordinary-Story-Behind/dp/1599213834
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 24, 2021, 01:35:33 PM
I'm really surprised how bad it is in Germany now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 24, 2021, 01:40:16 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 24, 2021, 01:35:33 PM
I'm really surprised how bad it is in Germany now.
could it be a new strain
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 24, 2021, 01:50:52 PM
pretty sure the scientists would have caught on to that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 24, 2021, 01:52:04 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 24, 2021, 01:50:52 PM
pretty sure the scientists would have caught on to that
you would think so
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 24, 2021, 01:53:32 PM
I would guess they would all like to be the smart guy that identified the next strain
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 24, 2021, 01:54:16 PM
Looks like Germany and some other Northern European countries, along with the Scandinavian countries, are on similar trajectories. While Southern Europe isn't really following.  Temps and folks moving indoors are likely a big part of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 24, 2021, 02:02:37 PM
We should close this thread, 847 is tired of blaming everything on Covid.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 24, 2021, 02:03:51 PM
The weather correlation with COVID outbreaks doesn't work very well, I think.  There is a possible correlation, but it's not universal at all.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 24, 2021, 02:27:57 PM
it's a guess, but..........
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 24, 2021, 02:29:23 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 24, 2021, 02:03:51 PM
The weather correlation with COVID outbreaks doesn't work very well, I think.  There is a possible correlation, but it's not universal at all.


I think weather driving people inside correlates pretty well.  It's just that it's not limited to cold weather.  Hot weather driving people inside is an issue, too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 24, 2021, 02:53:36 PM
Quote from: utee94 on November 24, 2021, 02:29:23 PM
I think weather driving people inside correlates pretty well.  It's just that it's not limited to cold weather.  Hot weather driving people inside is an issue, too.
It certainly was in Florida. We just did our best to adapt to the heat. The older population mostly cannot do that, due to other issues.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 24, 2021, 02:58:23 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 24, 2021, 01:35:33 PM
I'm really surprised how bad it is in Germany now.
The Virus or the Government's reaction?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 26, 2021, 05:29:11 AM
A new variant emerges- a bit scary

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/25/world/covid-variant-south-africa-immune-evasion-transmissibility/index.html


https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-variant-b-1-1-529-heres-what-we-know


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 26, 2021, 05:46:30 AM
The information about how COVID cases are spiking in Germany is a real surprise to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 26, 2021, 06:11:46 AM
Stock futures fall amid fears of new Covid variant found in South Africa (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/26/stock-futures-open-to-close-market-news.html)

Investors see this variant as a real threat.

Covid variant B.1.1.529 emerges in South Africa: Here's what we know (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/26/covid-variant-emerges-in-south-africa-heres-what-we-know-so-far.html)


The "mu" variant looked potentially scary and then disappeared.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 26, 2021, 11:22:28 AM
If this is a real new deadly strain at least we arent going into this blind

countries are starting to shut down travel from the location of this possible new strain

I hope the US follows suit

what makes this new strain scary is that it is stronger and appears to attack the young
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 26, 2021, 12:03:35 PM
It's already reported in Belgium, I fear it's out now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on November 26, 2021, 01:23:06 PM
I swear, if this is another damn thing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 26, 2021, 01:58:30 PM
has the US shut down travel to or from anywhere

if so I have not read about it

Mr President the time to act is now

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 26, 2021, 06:59:09 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 26, 2021, 01:58:30 PM
has the US shut down travel to or from anywhere

if so I have not read about it

Mr President the time to act is now
Well, he could wait 2 months and still be ahead of the previous president's pace.  


But I'm a jerk for saying so and you'll focus on that instead of my actual statement.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 26, 2021, 06:59:46 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 26, 2021, 11:22:28 AM
If this is a real new deadly strain at least we arent going into this blind

countries are starting to shut down travel from the location of this possible new strain

I hope the US follows suit

what makes this new strain scary is that it is stronger and appears to attack the young
Young lives are worth more?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 26, 2021, 08:18:02 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 26, 2021, 06:59:46 PM
Young lives are worth more?
yes
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on November 26, 2021, 08:19:08 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 26, 2021, 06:59:09 PM
Well, he could wait 2 months and still be ahead of the previous president's pace. 


But I'm a jerk for saying so and you'll focus on that instead of my actual statement.
previous president shut down travel pretty fast considering a lot of the experts were downplaying it and suggesting against that. 

he was called a racist by his opposition and many in the media when he did in-fact shut down travel to countries like China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 26, 2021, 08:44:34 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 26, 2021, 06:59:09 PM
Well, he could wait 2 months and still be ahead of the previous president's pace. 


But I'm a jerk for saying so and you'll focus on that instead of my actual statement.
your response is way out of line

this is not a political thread

take your crap to another thread
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 26, 2021, 08:47:24 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 26, 2021, 06:59:46 PM
Young lives are worth more?
My alarm was that a wider demographic attack might be coming not that only the young were important

you are really being an ass tonight OAM why dont you just try to be civil for just once
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 26, 2021, 09:57:19 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 26, 2021, 08:44:34 PM
your response is way out of line

this is not a political thread

take your crap to another thread
Wow, did I call it or what?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on November 27, 2021, 01:05:03 AM
The U.S.A. shut down travel from 7 countries. Not sure if that is best, but I am fine with it, for now. No doubt there will be spread worldwide from S. Africa regardless of this shutdown. This shutdown should buy the U.S.A. a few weeks to slow things down and figure out how bad it will become, how good our vaccines are against this variant, and adjust protocols amongst those willing to adjust. Too many of our fellow Americans are willing  to endanger friends, relatives, and neighbors by not vaccinating or following protocols.
We are big-brained mammals capable of acting collectively in our interest. We have outliers incapable of acting in our collective interest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 27, 2021, 09:23:15 AM
It IS best to shut travel, just at it was in January 2021. But, the scientists are already on this, which will allow "us" to stay on with life.

Covid news: Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, J&J, AstraZeneca investigating omicron (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/26/pfizer-biontech-investigating-new-covid-variant-jj-testing-vaccine-against-it.html)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 27, 2021, 09:30:06 AM
A travel ban could delay it for an important few weeks, or less, I agree.  I don't even view it as racist.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 27, 2021, 02:13:28 PM
Despite harsh criticism of Gov. Ron DeSantis’ handling of the coronavirus by Democrats, including President Joe Biden, Florida reported the lowest new COVID-19 case rate in the nation this week.

According to The  (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html)New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html), Florida reported a daily average Friday of 1,393 new cases, a rate of six cases per 100,000 people, which is a 5% decrease over the last 14-day period.

Michigan has the highest rate in the nation at 85 cases per 100,000 people, logging a daily case average of 8,457, which is almost 60% higher over the 14-day period.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 28, 2021, 10:47:08 AM
I blame Michigan's governor 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 28, 2021, 10:53:58 AM
South African doctor says omicron variant symptoms ‘unusual but mild’ | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/health/south-african-doctor-omicron-variant-symptoms-unusual-mild)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 28, 2021, 11:33:48 AM
I think before panic sets in over this we need more data to understand just what we are dealing with

hopefully thats coming
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 28, 2021, 11:35:06 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 28, 2021, 11:33:48 AM
I think before panic sets in over this we need more data to understand just what we are dealing with

hopefully thats coming
Please explain this to Wall Street investors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 28, 2021, 11:36:42 AM
you gonna sell at the opening bell tomorrow morning?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 28, 2021, 11:38:31 AM
I won't be selling of course, probably not buying either.  I should have kept my Lucid.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 28, 2021, 12:47:25 PM
I'm not selling anything. The indexes did take a beating on Friday with the moronic variant news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 28, 2021, 01:14:33 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on November 26, 2021, 08:19:08 PM
previous president shut down travel pretty fast considering a lot of the experts were downplaying it and suggesting against that.

he was called a racist by his opposition and many in the media when he did in-fact shut down travel to countries like China.
Beat me to it and the so called speaker was visiting China Town in SF and calling him a racist for wanting to close the coast.Then a month later the same said freak accused him of not taking action - that she ignored
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 28, 2021, 04:20:10 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 28, 2021, 11:33:48 AM
I think before panic sets in over this we need more data to understand just what we are dealing with

hopefully thats coming
Panic first. Data later. It's the human way :57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 30, 2021, 06:37:41 AM
https://www.foxbusiness.com/healthcare/moderna-ceo-says-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-will-likely-drop-against-omicron-variant

I had the booster.  Might not do all that much good.  🙁
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 30, 2021, 06:46:21 AM
The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/finance/583499-coronavirus-variant-raises-fresh-concerns-for-economy): Omicron poses unanswerable questions about the outlook for the U.S. economic recovery. 
 
NBC News (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/omicron-may-cause-milder-symptoms-experts-arent-breathing-sigh-relief-rcna6920?cid=eml_nbn_20211129&user_email=8d06a2eda5d6c2971334ce3cbeb4f5dd7b6841bc303f07850319c4e90d947004): “I don’t think we know anything about the virulence. What we’re worried more about is the transmissibility and the immune-evasion capabilities,” said Amesh Adalja, a specialist in infectious diseases at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on November 30, 2021, 07:09:42 AM
Covid tracker now showing over 800 Thousand deaths reported for U.S.A.



(https://i.imgur.com/6cpqSh2.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 30, 2021, 08:23:04 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 30, 2021, 06:37:41 AM
https://www.foxbusiness.com/healthcare/moderna-ceo-says-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-will-likely-drop-against-omicron-variant

I had the booster.  Might not do all that much good.  🙁
I had Moderna for the first two, but they gave me Pfizer for #3.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 30, 2021, 08:26:25 AM
Sorted by deaths/million population:

(https://i.imgur.com/QT98USO.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 30, 2021, 08:50:23 AM
I had not known Georgia was that high.:57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 30, 2021, 09:11:25 AM
Georgia, Spain?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 30, 2021, 09:24:05 AM
We're a country now, with a good department of defense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 30, 2021, 11:11:25 AM
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/health/coronavirus-nasal-vaccines.html

You’d Rather Get a Coronavirus Vaccine Through Your Nose

Some experts say a vaccine puffed in the nose would be better at protecting people from infection. But nasal vaccines won’t be ready right away.
 
The hope is that mucosal vaccines will do all that their intramuscular competitors can and more, mounting a multipronged attack on the coronavirus from the moment it tries to breach the body’s barriers, said Deepta Bhattacharya, an immunologist at the University of Arizona.

Under ideal circumstances, both types of vaccines would marshal a response in the blood. B cells, for example, would churn out antibodies — including a particularly potent disease-fighter called IgG — to roam the body in search of invaders to dispatch. Other cells, called T cells, would either help B cells produce antibodies or seek out and destroy infected cells.

But vaccines spritzed through the nose or mouth would also tap into another set of immune cells that hang around mucosal tissues. The B cells that reside here can make another type of antibody, called IgA, that plays a large role in bringing gut and airway pathogens to heel. And T cells in this neighborhood can memorize the features of specific pathogens, then spend the rest of their lives patrolling the places they first encountered them.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 30, 2021, 11:28:12 AM
I'll try it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Temp430 on November 30, 2021, 11:33:42 AM
I read recently that SARS-CoV-2 was spreading rapidly in white tail deer in the East and Midwest.  If that is the case it's here to stay and I would imagine it will end up in our food sooner than later.

https://www.aphis.usda.gov/animal_health/one_health/downloads/qa-covid-white-tailed-deer-study.pdf (https://www.aphis.usda.gov/animal_health/one_health/downloads/qa-covid-white-tailed-deer-study.pdf)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 30, 2021, 11:34:30 AM
It might help with those whose primary basis for declining a COVID vaccine is a fear of needles.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 30, 2021, 11:35:53 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on November 30, 2021, 11:34:30 AM
It might help with those whose primary basis for declining a COVID vaccine is a fear of needles.
Yup, that's what I was thinking.

I'm not sure that's a significant portion of the population, but I'm sure it applies to SOME folks, anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on November 30, 2021, 11:42:07 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 30, 2021, 11:35:53 AM
Yup, that's what I was thinking.

I'm not sure that's a significant portion of the population, but I'm sure it applies to SOME folks, anyway.
Given the scale and stubbornness of vaccine refusal in 2021, I'll gladly see a chunk of that go away whatever the reason.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 30, 2021, 11:44:27 AM
I doubt the needle fearer is even a very slim portion of the anti-vax portion
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 30, 2021, 11:49:39 AM
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/p526x296/262499685_4641146015931028_7994388331974932698_n.jpg?_nc_cat=100&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=2xC9QGg01agAX9nBLYs&tn=_MnT8OkIfzNoswba&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=2b716f7744f966a7fdc3305f6386226d&oe=61ABE9E1)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 30, 2021, 01:03:29 PM
How are they going to fit the microchips into the nasal spray?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 30, 2021, 01:59:40 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 30, 2021, 01:03:29 PM
How are they going to fit the microchips into the nasal spray?
They are very micro indeed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 30, 2021, 02:28:08 PM
Do we have any real data on how effective the current vaccines are against Omicron? 

The limited news I'm hearing isn't particularly promising. But if it's even a non-zero benefit, I think it makes it much more crucial to get the booster. If it's zero, then I don't know how much sense it makes to get the booster if it might impact when you're eligible for an updated vaccine tailored to Omicron...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 30, 2021, 02:49:22 PM
https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/29/uk/uk-booster-vaccine-expansion-omicron-gbr-intl/index.html

UK reducing time to get booster to 3 months, due to fears of Omicron spread.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 01, 2021, 08:14:08 AM
So, Lisbon was interesting. Pretty wide open, but not now. Masks mostly optional inside, but not now. 

Chicagoland was a mask haven, of course.

We were tested prior to boarding the airplane from Chicago, and then prior to boarding the ship. Then we were tested again before we were allowed to debark on St. Thomas and clear customs. Pain in the ass, was all of that.

St. Thomas required masks indoors at all places, except for a few where the owners told us it was OK to remove them. They had spotters on the streets for police, who were enforcing the indoor mask mandate. I found that to be funny.

Outside, a few crazy locals harassed us for not wearing masks. Outside. We just brushed them off.

Finally, back to Miami and a drive home from there.

I think I burned about 60 masks in my back yard when we got home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 01, 2021, 08:38:45 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 30, 2021, 02:28:08 PM
Do we have any real data on how effective the current vaccines are against Omicron?

The limited news I'm hearing isn't particularly promising. But if it's even a non-zero benefit, I think it makes it much more crucial to get the booster. If it's zero, then I don't know how much sense it makes to get the booster if it might impact when you're eligible for an updated vaccine tailored to Omicron...
Only "guesses" based on the genome information, no clinical data.

Variant "mu" fizzled out, no one knows why, this one could as well, one hopes, but I doubt it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 01, 2021, 08:43:08 AM
There are some people out there saying that this one could actually speed up the end of the pandemic, since it's so transmissible and it does not cause really bad symptoms. I'm hopeful for that outcome.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 01, 2021, 08:49:48 AM
Oh boy...

Stricter coronavirus testing being weighed for all travelers to U.S. - The Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/11/30/omicron-stricter-travel-rules-us-entry/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 01, 2021, 08:55:45 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 01, 2021, 08:14:08 AM

St. Thomas required masks indoors at all places, except for a few where the owners told us it was OK to remove them. They had spotters on the streets for police, who were enforcing the indoor mask mandate. I found that to be funny.
Put your masks on the cops are coming ,that is pretty funny
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 01, 2021, 09:03:37 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 01, 2021, 08:49:48 AM
Oh boy...

Stricter coronavirus testing being weighed for all travelers to U.S. - The Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/11/30/omicron-stricter-travel-rules-us-entry/)
Really? who the hell is honestly pulling the strings? But open the borders wide,did these oracles ever wonder what will happen when those hordes congregate inside? Wonder if a highly infectious virus would spread there
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 01, 2021, 09:15:23 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on December 01, 2021, 09:03:37 AM
Really? who the hell is honestly pulling the strings?
The Illuminati?

The middles eastern oil baron syndicate?

Jimmy Hoffa?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 01, 2021, 09:18:42 AM
When you look at the stats of all the countries where Omicron is supposed to exist there doesnt appear to be any major case surges or covid deaths 

again I fear we are going to panic over something that may not be as bad as painted

Im for restricting travel to and from those countries until we have all the facts but thats it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 01, 2021, 09:33:17 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 01, 2021, 08:14:08 AM
Finally, back to Miami and a drive home from there.

I think I burned about 60 masks in my back yard when we got home.
hope you enjoyed the trip.
I'll just hang here in Iowa, Nebraska, and South Dakota.

No masks / the beef & beer are cheap
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 01, 2021, 12:02:37 PM
About to get on a plane for San Jose. Big group meetings today and tomorrow, and apparently the rule in the office is all masks all the time. 

Not a corporate decision; that rule isn't in effect in Irvine. It's due to the harsher restrictions in multiple Bay Area counties.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 01, 2021, 12:21:45 PM
enjoy

I'm going to the golf course

no masks or jackets required

FORE!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 01, 2021, 04:02:10 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/UV62dKx.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 01, 2021, 04:10:27 PM
Like I said we might be in a panic for no reason

so far evidence shows this to be a fast spreading very mild virus

while we should take steps to control it we need to be careful not to over react 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 01, 2021, 04:27:35 PM
People are living in fear.  Even those that purport to be pro-science, react emotionally and prematurely.

What a world we live in, here in 2021.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 01, 2021, 04:51:55 PM
I hate (most) people.

None of you dorks are on my shit list. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 01, 2021, 05:06:39 PM
At some point, we could encounter a virus that is highly contagious, has a long latency period, and is very lethal.

Then we can panic, for all the good it would do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 01, 2021, 05:20:22 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 01, 2021, 05:06:39 PM
At some point, we could encounter a virus that is highly contagious, has a long latency period, and is very lethal.

Then we can panic, for all the good it would do.
Well we've already got plenty of practice at panicking, so we should be really good at it by then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 01, 2021, 06:17:09 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 01, 2021, 04:51:55 PM
I hate (most) people.

None of you dorks are on my shit list.
Invite us over - you'll revise that  list faster than Fearless heads to the course
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 02, 2021, 12:36:54 AM
Quote from: utee94 on December 01, 2021, 04:27:35 PM
People are living in fear.  Even those that purport to be pro-science, react emotionally and prematurely.

What a world we live in, here in 2021.
Yep.

The only thing we know about Omicron is that we don't know very much.

But that doesn't stop people from having opinions and expressing those opinions very strongly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 02, 2021, 06:22:31 AM
Not seeing much in the way of opinions.  

I do see a travel ban here in USA- including for places where does not appear to be a single case.  

I see CDC- allegedly a health science organization- announcing stringent new surveillance they are undertaking at some of our busiest international airports- including mandatory screening and quarantine. 

The one reported case in California- a person who is fully vaccinated and has mild symptoms-is the justification for some of the panic.  

Yet- for the thousands of illegal border crossings each day on our southern border- there appears to be no vaccine, testing or quarantine requirements.  

I don’t have an opinion about that- just questions??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 02, 2021, 07:00:56 AM
I was thinking about that too. For us to get into the US via St. Thomas, we had to show proof of vaccine, Covid test, customs, questioning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Temp430 on December 02, 2021, 08:42:50 AM
Anyone use the app My Bindle on your smart phone to store your health documentation and would like to share an opinion?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 02, 2021, 09:15:19 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on December 01, 2021, 06:17:09 PM
Invite us over - you'll revise that  list faster than Fearless heads to the course
I've been on the yacht, to his house, and attended a few tailgates

he still smiles when he sees me

I think it's because I deliver iowa corn-fed beef
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 02, 2021, 11:36:16 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 02, 2021, 09:15:19 AM
I've been on the yacht, to his house, and attended a few tailgates
braggart
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 02, 2021, 11:44:09 AM
Good article on a few interesting subjects...

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/brain-problems-found-1-hospitalized-covid-19-patients-real-world-data-shows-2021-12-01/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 03, 2021, 09:20:29 AM
We now have 5 confirmed cases of Omicron in the US

all 5 have only mild symptoms and are self quarantining

The media is going ape shit over this

Im very concerned about a federal overreaction to this
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 03, 2021, 09:22:09 AM
I don't think we'll see an over reaction.  There was a lot of concern that seems to be abating.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 03, 2021, 09:43:14 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 03, 2021, 09:22:09 AM
I don't think we'll see an over reaction.  There was a lot of concern that seems to be abating.
Hope youre right cause the stories of what may come from this are very alarming
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 03, 2021, 09:52:45 AM
Nearly everyone appreciates we're now in the endemic phase.  We have to live with the ups and downs.

I have not yet seen any new draconian steps proposed in the US.  Life around me is pretty normal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 03, 2021, 09:57:33 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 03, 2021, 09:52:45 AM
Nearly everyone appreciates we're now in the endemic phase.  We have to live with the ups and downs.

I have not yet seen any new draconian steps proposed in the US.  Life around me is pretty normal.
I think it's going to be dependent on where you live.

Regions that tend to value individual freedoms, will continue as-is.

Regions that tend to be... more like Europe... I expect to react in a way that is consistent with how several of the European countries are currently reacting.

I'm not sure what the Federal reaction is going to be, above and beyond the travel restrictions.  I'm not sure there's anything they CAN do, as the states and municipalities have done a pretty effective job of asserting their own authority without necessarily heeding the Federal advice/guidelines.  Which is, of course, something I have supported the entire time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2021, 10:12:44 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/bp6UUXH.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/OHb2vd4.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 03, 2021, 10:29:57 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 03, 2021, 09:20:29 AM
We now have 5 confirmed cases of Omicron in the US

all 5 have only mild symptoms and are self quarantining

The media is going ape shit over this

Im very concerned about a federal overreaction to this
Dude,  relax a bit.

What are they gonna do?  advise that you wear a mask, wash yer hands, and get a shot?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 03, 2021, 10:35:54 AM
Some locales have instituted fairly drastic measures like requiring proof of vax to dine out.

Germany and Austria have gone further.  Germany is really bad now, and it's Delta.  They MAY be peaking if this is the usual two month span.

The UK is just weird.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 03, 2021, 10:52:09 AM
THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP) — South African scientists are warning that reinfections among people who’ve already battled COVID-19 appear to be more likely with the new omicron variant than with earlier coronavirus mutants.

A research group has been tracking reinfections in South Africa and reported a jump with the arrival of omicron that they hadn’t seen when two previous variants, including the extra-contagious delta variant, moved through the country.

The findings, posted online Thursday, are preliminary and haven’t yet undergone scientific review. Nor did the researchers say what portion of the reinfections were confirmed as omicron cases — or whether they caused serious illness.

But the timing of the reinfection spike suggests that omicron “demonstrates substantial population-level evidence for evasion of immunity from prior infection,” they wrote.

“Previous infection used to protect against delta and now with omicron it doesn’t seem to be the case,” one of the researchers, Anne von Gottberg of the University of Witwatersrand, said at a World Health Organization briefing on Thursday.


The study also did not examine the protection offered by vaccination. The vaccines trigger different layers of immune response, some to fend off infection and others to prevent severe disease if someone does become infected.

“We believe that vaccines will still, however, protect against severe disease,” von Gottberg said.

The study suggests “omicron will be able to overcome natural and probably vaccine-induced immunity to a significant degree,” Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said in a written response to the findings. Just how much “is still unclear though it is doubtful that this will represent complete escape. ”
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on December 03, 2021, 11:20:14 AM
Right now we're really leery about what to do. Right now our trip to Italy is still on for the Christmas break, but we're trying to get everything sorted out for testing, entry requirements, etc. All of us are fully vaccinated, and three of us have been boosted. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 03, 2021, 11:23:08 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 03, 2021, 10:29:57 AM
Dude,  relax a bit.

What are they gonna do?  advise that you wear a mask, wash yer hands, and get a shot?
oh theres plenty more they could do believe me

I read one possibility of requiring proof of vax to cross state lines
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 03, 2021, 11:27:15 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on December 03, 2021, 11:20:14 AM
Right now we're really leery about what to do. Right now our trip to Italy is still on for the Christmas break, but we're trying to get everything sorted out for testing, entry requirements, etc. All of us are fully vaccinated, and three of us have been boosted.
Just go. It's not that bad. Jump through the hoops.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 03, 2021, 11:34:16 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 03, 2021, 11:23:08 AM
oh theres plenty more they could do believe me

I read one possibility of requiring proof of vax to cross state lines
It would be amusing to watch the Federal government attempt to impose such a restriction, and to watch states like Texas and Florida openly defy them.

But it'll never come to that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 03, 2021, 11:36:22 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 03, 2021, 11:23:08 AM
oh theres plenty more they could do believe me

I read one possibility of requiring proof of vax to cross state lines
Yes- they said “ nothings off the table” including vaccine and booster required to even board a plane.  Even though I have all 3 shots-so I don’t care- that kind of crazy talk is coming from our highest level of government so it is very real. 

again- we will have many court battles over what level of authority the federal government has over individual rights. 

so you all in the “ don’t you worry so much - it’s just talk “ crowd…..that’s what y’all said about

gender neutral bathrooms
No bail for criminals
defunding law enforcement
not prosecuting criminals
pretty much open southern border
the list goes on and on. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 03, 2021, 11:40:36 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on December 03, 2021, 11:36:22 AM
Yes- they said “ nothings off the table” including vaccine and booster required to even board a plane.  Even though I have all 3 shots-so I don’t care- that kind of crazy talk is coming from our highest level of government so it is very real. 

again- we will have many court battles over what level of authority the federal government has over individual rights. 

so you all in the “ don’t you worry so much - it’s just talk “ crowd…..that’s what y’all said about

gender neutral bathrooms
No bail for criminals
defunding law enforcement
not prosecuting criminals
pretty much open southern border
the list goes on and on. 

I mean, you're listing hot button issues that a lot of people are fundamentally okay with, so you're not really making the point you think you are.  I recognize that YOU think all of those are bad, but plenty of people in this country don't.  They not only aren't "worried" about it, they are actively in favor.

Which means it's not some kind of slippery slope argument, it's a case of fundamental ideals.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 03, 2021, 12:07:29 PM
Quote from: utee94 on December 03, 2021, 11:40:36 AM
I mean, you're listing hot button issues that a lot of people are fundamentally okay with, so you're not really making the point you think you are.  I recognize that YOU think all of those are bad, but plenty of people in this country don't.  They not only aren't "worried" about it, they are actively in favor.

Which means it's not some kind of slippery slope argument, it's a case of fundamental ideals.
I think he makes a very good point and thats why Im concerned about over stepping on Omicron
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 03, 2021, 12:12:13 PM
Quote from: utee94 on December 03, 2021, 11:40:36 AM
I mean, you're listing hot button issues that a lot of people are fundamentally okay with, so you're not really making the point you think you are.  I recognize that YOU think all of those are bad, but plenty of people in this country don't.  They not only aren't "worried" about it, they are actively in favor.

Which means it's not some kind of slippery slope argument, it's a case of fundamental ideals.
Totally agree.  ( although “some being in favor” constitutes a small minority in many cases)

as you can see- I specifically picked issues that have been discussed in this very thread, and been written off to “ your afraid of the bogeyman “ or “ that will never come to pass” and yet they have.

And that was specifically to respond on the specific conversation about reaction to the new variant.  Seeing the “you shouldn’t worry- that won’t happen”  played again

overall- I tend to strongly agree with your post upthread where you opine about the regional approach seeming to be how these things have , and likely will continue to, play out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 03, 2021, 12:13:31 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 03, 2021, 12:07:29 PM
I think he makes a very good point and thats why Im concerned about over stepping on Omicron
And people that are in favor of gender-neutral bathrooms, which is at least roughly half the country, don't think it's a good point at all.

Again, this isn't a slippery slope argument, it's a fundamental difference in ideals.

There are actually folks-- a LOT of folks in fact-- who believe the Federal government should have nearly unlimited power and should supersede state and municipal authority in almost every situation.

I don't happen to be one of those people, in fact I'm quite the opposite, but they are out there, and they have a very strong representation amongst the public.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 03, 2021, 12:16:04 PM
New study reveals exactly how much booster shots help you | TheHill (https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/584216-new-study-reveals-exactly-how-much-booster-shots)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 03, 2021, 12:16:17 PM
Quote from: utee94 on December 03, 2021, 12:13:31 PM
And people that are in favor of gender-neutral bathrooms, which is at least roughly half the country, don't think it's a good point at all.

Again, this isn't a slippery slope argument, it's a fundamental difference in ideals.

There are actually folks-- a LOT of folks in fact-- who believe the Federal government should have nearly unlimited power and should supersede state and municipal authority in almost every situation.

I don't happen to be one of those people, in fact I'm quite the opposite, but they are out there, and they have a very strong representation amongst the public.
Again- totally agree. 
which is why if someone were to opine in this thread that “we should lock down the whole country and wear masks 100% of the time“ My reaction would be totally different if I even would have one. I would probably just disagree but not even post about it.

But what I was responding to was this notion that those things are far-fetched and can’t possibly happen, because we’ve seen those posts before and a lot of these things that were thought to be “far-fetched” are now in play in real life. That was really my only point
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 03, 2021, 12:16:51 PM
Quote from: utee94 on December 03, 2021, 12:13:31 PM
And people that are in favor of gender-neutral bathrooms, which is at least roughly half the country, don't think it's a good point at all.

Again, this isn't a slippery slope argument, it's a fundamental difference in ideals.

There are actually folks-- a LOT of folks in fact-- who believe the Federal government should have nearly unlimited power and should supersede state and municipal authority in almost every situation.

I don't happen to be one of those people, in fact I'm quite the opposite, but they are out there, and they have a very strong representation amongst the public.
I agree there are people who favor these things but I feel strongly they are in the minority

I realize this can take a political turn and I dont want to go there

again I hope my concern is unfounded
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 03, 2021, 12:21:53 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 03, 2021, 12:16:51 PM
I agree there are people who favor these things but I feel strongly they are in the minority

I realize this can take a political turn and I dont want to go there

again I hope my concern is unfounded
You live Texas.  Lol.  It’s unfounded there for sure.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 03, 2021, 12:25:02 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on December 03, 2021, 12:16:17 PM
Again- totally agree. 
which is why if someone were to opine in this thread that “we should lock down the whole country and wear masks 100% of the time“ My reaction would be totally different if I even would have one. I would probably just disagree but not even post about it.

But what I was responding to was this notion that those things are far-fetched and can’t possibly happen, because we’ve seen those posts before and a lot of these things that were thought to be “far-fetched” are now in play in real life. That was really my only point
requiring vax cards to cross state lines is far-fetched and crazy talk for paranoid folks that need to calm down
my point
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 03, 2021, 12:29:41 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 03, 2021, 12:25:02 PM
requiring vax cards to cross state lines is far-fetched and crazy talk for paranoid folks that need to calm down
my point
I would feel differently if this new strain was deadly and not affected by the vaccine but so far that appears to not be the case
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 03, 2021, 12:29:51 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 03, 2021, 12:25:02 PM
requiring vax cards to cross state lines is far-fetched and crazy talk for paranoid folks that need to calm down
my point
Your probably right too. But it is talk that is occurring.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 03, 2021, 12:30:04 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on December 03, 2021, 12:16:17 PM
Again- totally agree. 
which is why if someone were to opine in this thread that “we should lock down the whole country and wear masks 100% of the time“ My reaction would be totally different if I even would have one. I would probably just disagree but not even post about it.

But what I was responding to was this notion that those things are far-fetched and can’t possibly happen, because we’ve seen those posts before and a lot of these things that were thought to be “far-fetched” are now in play in real life. That was really my only point
That's fair.  I don't keep track of who and what and when anyone has said "that could never happen" with respect to political topics on this message board, because aside from a few discussions about Coronavirus, I have typically actively avoided political discussions on this message board.

In general I don't know of anyone that ever said things like gender neutral bathrooms and defunding the police "could never happen."  Pretty much the opposite, honestly.  I know people that are strongly in favor of those things, and I know people that are strongly opposed, and in both cases, everyone believed absolutely that it COULD happen, which is precisely why they took active positions to either make it happen, or to prevent it from happening.  I don't know anyone that tacitly sat by on those issues and just "let them happen."

Perhaps you do know people like that, or perhaps people on this message board have taken that position.  I can't speak to that.

And specifically in this case, it sounds like you and I are aligned that regardless of what position the Federal government takes on an issue like intrastate travel restriction, they're not going to be able to enforce it, and they'll meet heavy resistance in the various regions where we know that kind of thing would be highly unpopular.

Restricting air travel to only those triple vaxed, on the other hand, is something the Executive Branch probably could enact, and I would not agree with such a restriction.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 03, 2021, 12:39:59 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on December 03, 2021, 12:29:51 PM
Your probably right too. But it is talk that is occurring. 
simply to stir the pot and bring out the paranoid 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 03, 2021, 12:42:06 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 03, 2021, 12:39:59 PM
simply to stir the pot and bring out the paranoid

A master recognizes his craft...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 03, 2021, 12:45:25 PM
Quote from: utee94 on December 03, 2021, 12:42:06 PM
A master recognizes his craft...
😂👍😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 03, 2021, 12:55:22 PM
recognize? hell he invented it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 03, 2021, 12:57:30 PM
i think Omicron has been here for a couple weeks now, unnoticed until this week.  That suggests to me, if true, it is mild and folks had it without knowing it.  It appears to b e more contagious and maybe the vaccines don't work as well, but I HOPE I'm right and the symptoms are mild and we won't see hospital use go way up.

I still cannot explain Germany, nor the UK, nor India.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on December 03, 2021, 01:27:40 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on December 03, 2021, 12:12:13 PM
Totally agree.  ( although “some being in favor” constitutes a small minority in many cases)

as you can see- I specifically picked issues that have been discussed in this very thread, and been written off to “ your afraid of the bogeyman “ or “ that will never come to pass” and yet they have.

And that was specifically to respond on the specific conversation about reaction to the new variant.  Seeing the “you shouldn’t worry- that won’t happen”  played again

overall- I tend to strongly agree with your post upthread where you opine about the regional approach seeming to be how these things have , and likely will continue to, play out.
Everybody forgets "Just shut down for a couple of weeks to flatten the curve"  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 03, 2021, 01:45:20 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 03, 2021, 12:55:22 PM
recognize? hell he invented it
I'm old, but I'm not THAT old
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 03, 2021, 03:37:56 PM
It's carry over from your previous incarnations
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 03, 2021, 03:48:17 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 03, 2021, 12:57:30 PM
i think Omicron has been here for a couple weeks now, unnoticed until this week.  That suggests to me, if true, it is mild and folks had it without knowing it.  It appears to b e more contagious and maybe the vaccines don't work as well, but I HOPE I'm right and the symptoms are mild and we won't see hospital use go way up.
This is what I want to believe. 

What we know is that we don't seem to have evidence that it's anything but mild. But we don't have much evidence of anything yet. 

As they say, absence of evidence is not always evidence of absence. 

I hope this bears true. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 04, 2021, 08:38:19 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/xlgxWHy.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 04, 2021, 09:30:34 AM
from Richard above..........

I think this whole thing has been so poorly communicated and so much panic generated

Ya THINK?!?!?!?

from scientists, Doctors, politicians worldwide

not just liberals, not just conservatives, not just Americans, not just any one group of melon-heads

Almost EVERYONE
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 04, 2021, 09:37:48 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 04, 2021, 09:30:34 AM
from Richard above..........

I think this whole thing has been so poorly communicated and so much panic generated

Ya THINK?!?!?!?

from scientists, Doctors, politicians worldwide

not just liberals, not just conservatives, not just Americans, not just any one group of melon-heads

Almost EVERYONE

It's really quite alarming how so many professionals, so many that are supposed to be knowledgeable level-headed adults, completely lost their minds over the past 2 years.

Decades from now, the post facto research and analysis of everything that happened during the pandemic, is going to be fascinating.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 04, 2021, 09:48:43 AM
this is what disappoints and frustrates me the most about the COVID situation

the so called "experts" and "leaders"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 04, 2021, 09:52:45 AM
I missed any experts who lost their minds over this.  Folks were saying it's a concern.  And it is.

I missed with few exceptions anyone calling for extreme measures.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 04, 2021, 09:57:11 AM
There are scores of examples in this thread alone.

I'd rehash them, but I don't want to, and doing so would also inevitably spark heated political debate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 04, 2021, 09:58:17 AM
depends on your definition of "losing their mind"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 04, 2021, 10:01:42 AM
as a side note my neighbor got her booster yesterday and for 24 hours her arm hurt and she had a headache but feels fine today

my daughter got the booster last week with no side effects

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 04, 2021, 10:03:07 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 04, 2021, 09:58:17 AM
depends on your definition of "losing their mind"

Acting irrationally and emotionally instead of using solid facts, science, research, and logic.  Pretty much an obvious, standard, working definition of losing one's mind, in my opinion.

And there are hundreds and probably thousands of examples of leaders and public figures doing this over the past 2 years, around the globe.  Not the least of which is the UK's current reaction to Omicron based on pretty much zero scientific evidence.  This type of activity has repeated continuously since January 2020.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 04, 2021, 10:10:46 AM
Quote from: utee94 on December 04, 2021, 10:03:07 AM
Acting irrationally and emotionally instead of using solid facts, science, research, and logic.  Pretty much an obvious, standard, working definition of losing one's mind, in my opinion.

And there are hundreds and probably thousands of example of leaders and public figures doing this over the past 2 years, around the globe.  Not the least of which is the UK's current reaction to Omicron based on pretty much zero scientific evidence.  This type of activity has repeated continuously since January 2020.
why do you think the leaders do this

could there be a reason we are not allowed to discuss on this thread

nevermind I had a weak moment
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 04, 2021, 10:13:46 AM
Quote from: utee94 on December 04, 2021, 09:57:11 AM
There are scores of examples in this thread alone.

I'd rehash them, but I don't want to, and doing so would also inevitably spark heated political debate.
also depends on your definition of "experts"

especially on this thread ;) 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on December 04, 2021, 01:34:30 PM
Quote from: utee94 on December 03, 2021, 11:34:16 AM
It would be amusing to watch the Federal government attempt to impose such a restriction, and to watch states like Texas and Florida openly defy them.

But it'll never come to that.
That idea is one of those silly bits of fear porn. I suppose someone could do it to try to drive attention, but it's functionally unworkable without a boatload of state involvement, which would never happen.

That said, I'm sure states are far more interesting in blocking each other than the feds are in splitting them up. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 04, 2021, 01:47:46 PM
Daughter just got jab #2. Now the family is complete.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 04, 2021, 03:53:06 PM
A little uptick here in Florida. Could be a Thanksgiving spike, or it's all of those people from the North bringing it with them.

(https://i.imgur.com/pNXWHbD.png)

Deaths are way down.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 04, 2021, 03:54:13 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 04, 2021, 01:47:46 PM
Daughter just got jab #2. Now the family is complete.
I don't think your family or anyone else's is complete. Probably never, unless this new variant just gets us all and it turns into a common cold.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on December 04, 2021, 04:54:17 PM
Did Booster Thursday.  Took 10 year old for hers.  Love going to the Indy Motor Speedway for it.   Army reserves run the operation outside turn 2.  Don't even leave your car.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 05, 2021, 07:40:31 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on December 04, 2021, 01:34:30 PM
That idea is one of those silly bits of fear porn. I suppose someone could do it to try to drive attention, but it's functionally unworkable without a boatload of state involvement, which would never happen.

That said, I'm sure states are far more interesting in blocking each other than the feds are in splitting them up.
In the early days of spring 2020, we saw a handful of states attempt to restrict access from other states.  It didn't really work.  I suppose some might attempt it again if they felt the need, and I expect it wouldn't work any better the second time around.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on December 05, 2021, 11:10:43 AM
Quote from: utee94 on December 05, 2021, 07:40:31 AM
In the early days of spring 2020, we saw a handful of states attempt to restrict access from other states.  It didn't really work.  I suppose some might attempt it again if they felt the need, and I expect it wouldn't work any better the second time around.


Yeah, but those were states, not the feds. Feds don't have the resources to do it, nor the authority to make states do it.

And let's be real, even then, it was just a kind of stupid show. Declaring that some other folks have cooties has been a time-honored tactic to fire up your own folks. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 05, 2021, 11:21:19 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/mxD8n6j.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 05, 2021, 03:23:17 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 05, 2021, 11:21:19 AM
[img width=499.988 height=274.988]https://i.imgur.com/mxD8n6j.png[/img]

Huh, it's almost as if geography is playing a role here...

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 05, 2021, 06:54:58 PM
NEW ORLEANS (AP) — A Norwegian Cruise Line ship with at least 10 passengers and crew members infected with COVID-19 docked Sunday in New Orleans, where health officials said they were trying to disembark people without worsening the spread of the coronavirus illness.

Local news outlets in New Orleans confirmed the Norwegian Breakaway had arrived in the city. The ship departed New Orleans on Nov. 28. The Louisiana Department of Health said in a late Saturday news release that over the past week, the ship made stops in Belize, Honduras and Mexico.

Norwegian Cruise Line issued a statement that confirmed a “handful of COVID-19 cases among guests and crew.” The company said all of the identified cases involved people without symptoms of the illness.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 06, 2021, 06:53:03 AM
We only had one person on our trip. Mild symptoms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 06, 2021, 07:06:32 AM
What percentage of cases in the US were asymptomatic I wonder?  Infectious and no symptoms?

I was quite surprised that influenza is often this way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 06, 2021, 08:01:59 AM
I said before that far more people have had this thing and didn't know it. I still believe this to be true.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 06, 2021, 08:16:52 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 06, 2021, 08:01:59 AM
I said before that far more people have had this thing and didn't know it. I still believe this to be true.
There have been several widespread, blood-draw studies at this point, including one here in Texas conducted by UT's medical school, where they're measuring for both the presence of natural antibodies, as well as levels of vaccine-induced antibodies post vaccination and their reduction over time.  The UT one is not yet published but I'll be interested to see what portion of the population shows as already having natural antibodies.

I've already mentioned this happened for my 14yo daughter, we had her tested for natural antibodies before her vaccination, and she showed positive.  We never knew she had it, no symptoms.  I'd been tested twice before that and showed negative, but haven't been tested since then and so I could be positive now, too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 06, 2021, 09:07:37 AM
Quote from: utee94 on December 06, 2021, 08:16:52 AM
There have been several widespread, blood-draw studies at this point, including one here in Texas conducted by UT's medical school, where they're measuring for both the presence of natural antibodies, as well as levels of vaccine-induced antibodies post vaccination and their reduction over time.  The UT one is not yet published but I'll be interested to see what portion of the population shows as already having natural antibodies.

I've already mentioned this happened for my 14yo daughter, we had her tested for natural antibodies before her vaccination, and she showed positive.  We never knew she had it, no symptoms.  I'd been tested twice before that and showed negative, but haven't been tested since then and so I could be positive now, too.
Your best trait is that you are always positive 😉
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 06, 2021, 12:25:29 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on December 06, 2021, 09:07:37 AM
Your best trait is that you are always positive 😉
HA!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 06, 2021, 12:36:33 PM
I am leaning to thinking Omicron is not a game changer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 06, 2021, 12:39:14 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 06, 2021, 12:36:33 PM
I am leaning to thinking Omicron is not a game changer.
yep no matter how hard the media tries Omicron just aint the doomsday they painted it as
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 06, 2021, 12:44:02 PM
Read the whole thread.

Carl T. Bergstrom on Twitter: "1. The FDA recently approved Merck's new COVID treatment, an antiviral known known as molnupiravir. The drug works by mimicking the cytidine and uridine nucleosides and thereby inducing frequent mutations in replicating virus." / Twitter (https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1467611446053851145?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1467611446053851145|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 06, 2021, 12:51:23 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 06, 2021, 12:39:14 PM
yep no matter how hard the media tries Omicron just aint the doomsday they painted it as
I did not notice the media painting this as doomsday, they noted it was unknown and could get bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 06, 2021, 01:09:11 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 06, 2021, 12:51:23 PM
I did not notice the media painting this as doomsday, they noted it was unknown and could get bad.
Every time a new case is discovered its front page news like "Its Here" etc

we obviously dont look at the same news sources
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 06, 2021, 01:27:00 PM
Sure, it makes some news, but I personally didn't see marked exaggeration.  It was labeled a variant of concern and we didn't know how bad it could be.

I don't have a problem with how I saw it reported.  Maybe you have an example of something egregious?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 06, 2021, 01:38:48 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 06, 2021, 01:27:00 PM
Sure, it makes some news, but I personally didn't see marked exaggeration.  It was labeled a variant of concern and we didn't know how bad it could be.

I don't have a problem with how I saw it reported.  Maybe you have an example of something egregious?
I think at the beginning it looked like it spreads like wildfire, and the concern was that with ~2x the number of spike protein mutations compared to Delta, that it would render our immunity (whether vaccine or natural) ineffective.

I think the reporting wasn't exactly "the end is nigh!!!" level, but it was definitely alarmist about the potential implications of the above. 

Remember that three things would ABSOLUTELY warrant quite alarmist reporting, if all three were true:


Right now #1 looks to be true. As far as we can tell, #2 may not be--our vaccines may still protect (at least outcome-wise, if not infection/transmission wise) from Omicron. And the early data suggests that #3 may not be true. 

So... We'll see. As long as the vaccines are still effective at preventing hospitalization/death, and especially if Omicron is by nature less lethal than previous strains, it won't be all that big of a deal, at least in developed countries with high vax rates and robust medical infrastructure. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on December 06, 2021, 10:13:48 PM
Have any of you been treated with monoclonal antibodies?
Did the treatment agree with you or disagree with you?
What was the cost?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 06, 2021, 10:17:59 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 06, 2021, 01:09:11 PM
Every time a new case is discovered its front page news like "Its Here" etc

we obviously dont look at the same news sources
No shit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 06, 2021, 11:43:40 PM
Quote from: Hawkinole on December 06, 2021, 10:13:48 PM
Have any of you been treated with monoclonal antibodies?
Did the treatment agree with you or disagree with you?
What was the cost?
I have not, but everything I've heard has been positive. If you catch the infection early, they seem to knock it down quickly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on December 07, 2021, 12:37:23 AM

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 06, 2021, 11:43:40 PM
I have not, but everything I've heard has been positive. If you catch the infection early, they seem to knock it down quickly.
Thank you for your input. The doctor told me it is a 2-hour infusion treatment. The drug available here is Regencov, and it is in short supply at our rural hospital. In fact, earlier today a lay client who follows this stuff told me our hospital was out. At 5:30 p.m. the doc said she would have to check, as it is day-to-day, and they get new shipments. I read there are side-effects for some that can be unpleasant.
I am vaccinated. I was scheduled to get my booster Dec. 10. The booster is off, for now. 
Doc told me because I was weighed with my clothing on, I just met the BMI qualification of 25. Nice way to say, "You are almost fat, but that gives us more options." I am 3-months from 65 which is the other qualification for monoclonal antibodies. 
The first time I had this, Oct. 2020, I had no symptoms. This time it feels like a severe cold, headachy at times, phlegm, sinus, coughs to expel crap. Symptoms started Friday Dec. 3 at 10:30 p.m. Tonight it is at its worse, but if this is all the worse it gets, I can live with it. The future is hard to predict.
Get booster shots! If you have people working for you who refuse to vaccinate, and you have the decision making power, look out after your own safety and the safety of others. I delayed boostering because I thought I would have greater immunity having tested + before and having been vaccinated in April.  Don't think you can outfox this. Boosters are available.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 07, 2021, 06:07:45 AM
Best wishes to you for a speedy recovery.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 07, 2021, 08:30:58 AM
Stock futures jumped early morning Tuesday after a rebound from a rollercoaster week as investors grew less fearful of the potential impact from the new omicron coronavirus variant.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 358 points, or 1%. S&P 500 futures rose 1.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures were up 1.7%.

Chipmaker stocks were the early winners, with Intel leaping 8.4% and NVIDIA up 3.7%, following news that Intel was planning to take its self-driving car unit, Mobileye, public (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/07/intel-plans-to-take-self-driving-car-unit-public-in-the-us-in-2022.html) in mid-2022.
Casino stocks also were hot, as Las Vegas Sands rose 3.4%, while cruise lines also gained on the enthusiasm that omicron may pose less of a threat than feared. Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings jumped about 3.5% each.

Dow futures jump more than 300 points, continuing rebound as investors reassess omicron risk (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/06/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 07, 2021, 08:55:03 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on December 06, 2021, 10:13:48 PM
Have any of you been treated with monoclonal antibodies?
Did the treatment agree with you or disagree with you?
What was the cost?
Regencov - I believe that was what my neighbors received with much success.Both 70 & retired but active,unfortunately she has beginning symptoms of parkinson's.Her sister about 6 weeks ago -week before Halloween- was visiting from Pa the SIL was vaxed - they weren't,well somehow they all got covid.He called his PC Doctor on a tuesday and she got him an appt for saturday.However some one cancelled and he got in wednesday and they were able to get the other two in on short order.And they all liked the results obviously.The think the SIL got it 1st as she was out/about much more "maybe" because she was previously vaxed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 07, 2021, 10:15:22 AM
A woman in Northwest Houston has tested positive for Omicron.  She was fully vaccinated and only has mild symptoms

The kicker is she has not traveled at all which means she must have gotten it from some other person here

They have detected signs of Omicron in the waste water of 11 districts here

Bottom line Omicron has been here for a while 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 07, 2021, 10:30:37 AM
South Africa should be open for travel, that being the case.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 07, 2021, 11:45:42 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 07, 2021, 10:30:37 AM
South Africa should be open for travel, that being the case.
One question Ive got is if you get Omicron does it give you protection against getting regular covid

cause if it does wouldnt that be neat
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on December 07, 2021, 12:17:45 PM
I seem to remember that when Delta made it's initial run it pretty much put all the other types/variants out of business. Since Omicron took over in South Africa even faster than Delta did, would this be the beginning of the end of Delta?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 07, 2021, 12:22:07 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 07, 2021, 11:45:42 AM
One question Ive got is if you get Omicron does it give you protection against getting regular covid

cause if it does wouldnt that be neat

I think being infected by any variant, gives you some protection against the other variants.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 07, 2021, 12:35:47 PM
Pfizer (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/PFE) CEO Albert Bourla on Tuesday said the omicron variant of the virus that causes Covid-19 appears to be milder than previous strains, but also seems to spread faster and could lead to more mutations in the future.
“I don’t think it’s good news to have something that spreads fast,” Bourla told The Wall Street Journal during an interview at the paper’s CEO Council Summit. “Spreads fast means it will be in billions of people and another mutation may come. You don’t want that.”

White House chief medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said reports over the weekend from South Africa suggest omicron is not as severe as initially feared, while noting that more data is needed to fully assess the risk posed by the variant.
The South African Medical Research Council, in a report released Saturday, said most patients admitted to a hospital in Pretoria who had Covid didn’t need supplemental oxygen. The report also noted that many patients were admitted for other medical reasons and were then found to have Covid (https://www.cnbc.com/coronavirus/).


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 07, 2021, 01:33:57 PM
Good news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on December 07, 2021, 06:20:06 PM
I have been trying to figure out how I get it and my brother the dentist, hasn't. So I called him. He bought two hepa filtration devices for the rooms he sees patients in that draw the air away from him. 
All of his employees are vaccinated, not necessarily by choice. 
The furnace is old and could not handle a thick hepa filter, so, he closed off the cold air returns.
He wears an N95 and surgical mask throughout the workday. And they clean surfaces.
I live in a rural area where we have 59.5% vaccination rate for people over age 12. Those in this county who are not vaccinated in general are unlikely to vaccinate unless disaster strikes their family.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 08, 2021, 08:26:55 AM
WHO, US scientists say Omicron no worse than other virus variants (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/who-us-scientists-say-omicron-no-worse-than-other-virus-variants/ar-AARAFfl)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 08, 2021, 09:19:13 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 08, 2021, 08:26:55 AM
WHO, US scientists say Omicron no worse than other virus variants (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/who-us-scientists-say-omicron-no-worse-than-other-virus-variants/ar-AARAFfl)

I won't believe it until it's April 2022 and we haven't all died of Omicron.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 08, 2021, 09:21:07 AM
Pfizer vaccine: Two doses may not provide sufficient protection against Omicron coronavirus variant - CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/08/health/pfizer-omicron-vaccine-data/index.html)

Preliminary lab studies show two doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine may not provide sufficient protection against the Omicron coronavirus variant, but three doses are able to neutralize it, the companies said in a news release (https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-provide-update-omicron-variant) on Wednesday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 08, 2021, 09:22:26 AM
Wealthy drug company urges purchase of more of its product.  Film at 11.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 08, 2021, 09:23:56 AM
Pfizer stock price has lagged the S&P 500 since this started, J&J has lagged a LOT, so they need more conspiracy notions.

Moderna stock has surged, and guess which two I own?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 08, 2021, 09:34:47 AM
Not Moderna.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 08, 2021, 09:42:09 AM
Pfizer and J&J are far more diversified companies, of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 08, 2021, 09:45:29 AM
Yup, they are much larger.  PFE has increased in stock price over the past couple of months by a but, before that they were a clear laggard.

I bought their stock for a stable dividend in effect.  A lot of my portfolio is companies with solid dividends that tend to increase.  That tactic may have to evolve if inflation hits harder than it already is, but bonds are even worse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 08, 2021, 09:52:09 AM
Senate poised to pass resolution to nullify Biden vaccine mandate | TheHill (https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/584825-senate-poised-to-pass-resolution-to-nullify-biden-vaccine-mandate)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 08, 2021, 10:02:23 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 08, 2021, 09:23:56 AM
Pfizer stock price has lagged the S&P 500 since this started...

And so this is a compelling argument for them not trying to scratch out additional revenue by any means necessary.... how exactly?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 08, 2021, 01:26:27 PM
Fauci says early reports encouraging about omicron variant | AP News (https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-joe-biden-lifestyle-health-travel-ef7c250c58b90b9835a972d7ebd9556b?fbclid=IwAR1l05T4-fpKEcn0sNAsTtukZFmECYWrflRLrq0G3ioYeZscMcm0Yg9I6JU)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 08, 2021, 01:38:44 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 08, 2021, 01:26:27 PM
Fauci says early reports encouraging about omicron variant | AP News (https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-joe-biden-lifestyle-health-travel-ef7c250c58b90b9835a972d7ebd9556b?fbclid=IwAR1l05T4-fpKEcn0sNAsTtukZFmECYWrflRLrq0G3ioYeZscMcm0Yg9I6JU)


Im hanging on every word he utters

tune in tomorrow when he says everyone needs to be masked all the time because of omicron
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 08, 2021, 02:30:10 PM
I think in this case Fauci just summarized what has become fairly apparently.  He could have argued using other data unknown to us.

I find it useful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 08, 2021, 04:14:23 PM
Much more useful is this video on omicron

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5E6gpPJwYIY
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 08, 2021, 04:21:34 PM
That guy's actually pretty decent at least with this new varient he said a few weeks back contagious but milder when the WHO and CDC were still scratching their nads.He had also recommended in his videos at least 6000 IUs of D-3(Daily) and once a week 600 mcgs of K-2.Evidently that helps distribute and absorb the other vitamin.I'm still taking 1 oz of Mr Beam's elixir 2-3 times a week
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 08, 2021, 05:10:39 PM
Fauci is focused on providing a general summary for the masses, folks like me who don't watch 23 minute videos.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 08, 2021, 05:25:49 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 08, 2021, 05:10:39 PM
Fauci is focused on providing a general summary for the masses, folks like me who don't watch 23 minute videos.
Fauci needs to watch that video

He might learn something
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 08, 2021, 05:35:25 PM
Maybe so, I didn't watch it.

I don't quite get all the angst about Fauci, though frankly I don't pay him much attention either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 08, 2021, 06:12:21 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 08, 2021, 05:35:25 PM
Maybe so, I didn't watch it.

I don't quite get all the angst about Fauci, though frankly I don't pay him much attention either.
you should watch the video CD I learned more from it in 23 minutes then I have from news sources over the last 7 days
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on December 09, 2021, 09:49:39 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 02, 2021, 12:36:54 AM
Yep.

The only thing we know about Omicron is that we don't know very much.

But that doesn't stop people from having opinions and expressing those opinions very strongly.


Once news of the Omicron variant starting riding the headlines throughout Thanksgiving week, it was as though the news media rushed headlong into eagerly reviving the playbook for when Covid first broke in March of 2020. For example, the media’s steady stream of news breaks announcing each location of Omicron’s latest detection is the reactionary repeat of when Covid first emerged as a big unknown. Right away we were warned the Omicron Variant was the most transmissible and deadliest yet.

Forgive my cynicism, but with the Cable News discussion around Omicron, it’s like we’re in the next season of a TV show renewed beyond its first season – the second season, Delta; the third, Omicron. By now we know Omicron isn’t quite as dire as first advertised (but the initial advertising evidently was the point):

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1468253104789286912
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 09, 2021, 08:13:12 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 08, 2021, 05:25:49 PM
Fauci needs to watch that video

He might learn something
I'm not listening to either of them

COVID is over in my mind

it's just life with COVID, similar to life with the flu

there's a vax available get it if you'd like

there are very good masks or simple paper masks if you want to use them
wash yer hands if you like
stay out of crowds if you like
do what you feel comfortable with
the folks with messages don't seem to be able to get a clear message cross to the masses
just forget about the messages
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 09, 2021, 08:22:18 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 09, 2021, 08:13:12 PM
I'm not listening to either of them

COVID is over in my mind

it's just life with COVID, similar to life with the flu

there's a vax available get it if you'd like

there are very good masks or simple paper masks if you want to use them
wash yer hands if you like
stay out of crowds if you like
do what you feel comfortable with
the folks with messages don't seem to be able to get a clear message cross to the masses
just forget about the messages
OK Mr Ostrich
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 09, 2021, 08:42:25 PM
tired of listening to this

it's been more than a few months
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 09, 2021, 09:06:05 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 09, 2021, 08:42:25 PM
tired of listening to this

it's been more than a few months
so we should just be quiet and not discuss it

would that make you feel better
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 09, 2021, 09:19:19 PM
I don't mind listening to youse guys

it's Fauci and others and the media I'm tired of
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 10, 2021, 08:28:22 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 09, 2021, 08:13:12 PM
I'm not listening to either of them

COVID is over in my mind

it's just life with COVID, similar to life with the flu

there's a vax available get it if you'd like

there are very good masks or simple paper masks if you want to use them
wash yer hands if you like
stay out of crowds if you like
do what you feel comfortable with
the folks with messages don't seem to be able to get a clear message cross to the masses
just forget about the messages
This is where I'm at, but I still like to be informed. That is very hard to do, with all the noise around this thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 10, 2021, 08:53:33 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 10, 2021, 08:28:22 AM
This is where I'm at, but I still like to be informed. That is very hard to do, with all the noise around this thing.
Same here.  For example, IF Omicron had turned out to be a new killer mutation, that's something I'd like to know. 

But it's difficult to be truly informed when the mediots' immediate reaction, is to play up the scare factor, to gain the eyeballs and clicks.  It's a vicious cycle we have, here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 10, 2021, 09:47:40 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 10, 2021, 08:28:22 AM
This is where I'm at, but I still like to be informed. That is very hard to do, with all the noise around this thing.
Ed Zachery!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 10, 2021, 10:12:17 AM
you just have to use a bullshit filter

Mine is pretty good 

its been in development a very long time
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 11, 2021, 08:45:06 AM
An uptick in Florida cases, which I expected with the influx of people from the North, and Thanksgiving.

(https://i.imgur.com/YYtJUmE.png)

Deaths remain down, which is really nice. Hopefully that remains the case.

(https://i.imgur.com/OZls8iW.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 11, 2021, 09:09:28 AM
I think deaths remain down and will going forward

the media doesn't speak much about this - from any source
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on December 13, 2021, 12:29:29 AM
They were coming down. In the most recent reporting period deaths went back up. "The current 7-day moving average of new deaths (1,092) has increased 27.8% compared with the previous 7-day moving average (854)." 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 13, 2021, 07:43:10 AM
There have been a lot of misleading headlines (shocked!!) about hospitalizations. ICU beds are getting full, blah blah blah. Well, it's not because of Covid, which accounts for about 5% of all ICU bed occupations.

(https://i.imgur.com/bISfYqr.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 14, 2021, 11:58:12 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 14, 2021, 11:51:08 AM
Posted: Dec 13, 2021 / 02:19 PM PST / Updated: Dec 13, 2021 / 10:28 PM PST

California will require indoor masking once again starting Wednesday, following a sharp increase in COVID-19 cases since Thanksgiving, health officials announced Monday.

The new mandate will be in effect from Dec. 15 to Jan. 15, Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly said in a briefing Monday.


What sharp increase?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 14, 2021, 11:59:06 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 14, 2021, 11:58:12 AM
What sharp increase?


The bullshit one, of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on December 14, 2021, 01:19:50 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 10, 2021, 10:12:17 AM
you just have to use a bullshit filter

Mine is pretty good

its been in development a very long time
here's a pretty good rule of thumb....basically 90+% of whatever the US gov't or the establishment media is telling you is complete and utter bullshit. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on December 14, 2021, 01:21:59 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 08, 2021, 02:30:10 PM
I think in this case Fauci just summarized what has become fairly apparently.  He could have argued using other data unknown to us.

I find it useful.
Fauci literally has zero credibility left. It's amazing to me he keeps being parroted out there as some kind of arbiter of truth. IF the US gov't wants to get any shred of credibility back and get people to regain their trust- good start would be sacking Anthony Facui.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on December 14, 2021, 01:23:08 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 09, 2021, 08:13:12 PM
I'm not listening to either of them

COVID is over in my mind

it's just life with COVID, similar to life with the flu

there's a vax available get it if you'd like

there are very good masks or simple paper masks if you want to use them
wash yer hands if you like
stay out of crowds if you like
do what you feel comfortable with
the folks with messages don't seem to be able to get a clear message cross to the masses
just forget about the messages
Amen brother.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 14, 2021, 01:24:43 PM
If in fact Omicron takes over from Covis19 and Delta like it has in South Africa we should see cases go way up and deaths go way down

Just a thought
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on December 14, 2021, 01:33:02 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 14, 2021, 01:24:43 PM
If in fact Omicron takes over from Covis19 and Delta like it has in South Africa we should see cases go way up and deaths go way down

Just a thought
deaths have been going way down and would've kept going way down regardless of omicron imo. this thing already ripped through and killed the most vulnerable to it, we actually have widely available testing for early detection, effective vaccines and effective treatments to manage illness and prevent death. 

when it was brand new there was no way to detect it early to start preventive care, there were no vaccines, and there were no treatments. we got all that now- plus it's already ripped through and killed the most vulnerable- so- yeah deaths were bound to go way down. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 14, 2021, 01:53:55 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on December 14, 2021, 01:21:59 PM
Fauci literally has zero credibility left. It's amazing to me he keeps being parroted out there as some kind of arbiter of truth. IF the US gov't wants to get any shred of credibility back and get people to regain their trust- good start would be sacking Anthony Facui.
the US gov't obviously doesn't give a shit
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 14, 2021, 01:56:46 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on December 14, 2021, 01:33:02 PM
deaths have been going way down and would've kept going way down regardless of omicron imo. this thing already ripped through and killed the most vulnerable to it, we actually have widely available testing for early detection, effective vaccines and effective treatments to manage illness and prevent death.

when it was brand new there was no way to detect it early to start preventive care, there were no vaccines, and there were no treatments. we got all that now- plus it's already ripped through and killed the most vulnerable- so- yeah deaths were bound to go way down.
current deaths are about 8,000 a week

by way down I mean like 100 a week
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on December 14, 2021, 02:14:22 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 14, 2021, 01:53:55 PM
the US gov't obviously doesn't give a shit
i love this country but hate it's gov't because the c***ks##kers in it are never held accountable for anything and they abuse their powers and break and bend laws on whims.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on December 14, 2021, 02:16:03 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 14, 2021, 01:56:46 PM
current deaths are about 8,000 a week

by way down I mean like 100 a week
0 deaths per week in China. Lol.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 14, 2021, 02:19:14 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on December 14, 2021, 02:16:03 PM
0 deaths per week in China. Lol.
yep and we wouldnt even have to lie about it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 14, 2021, 04:11:31 PM
First Big Omicron Study Finds Two Doses of Pfizer's Vaccine Cuts Hospitalization Risk by 70% (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/first-big-omicron-study-finds-two-doses-of-pfizer-s-vaccine-cuts-hospitalization-risk-by-70/ar-AARNYPG?ocid=msedgntp)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 14, 2021, 04:20:53 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on December 14, 2021, 02:16:03 PM
0 deaths per week in China. Lol.
(https://media0.giphy.com/media/ZqlvCTNHpqrio/giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47n85kdzr4pwrakkfzr7g085g6wwi4rsw7yxj4ydy1&rid=giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 14, 2021, 04:47:44 PM
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2021/12/omicron-pandemic-fatigue-gen-z/620960/


Quote
Gen Z Is Done With the Pandemic

Though the specter of a new variant hangs over the holidays, young people have no plans to lock themselves down again.



CD was asking how the media had over-hyped Omicron, and here's just one example among hundreds or even thousands.  So far, the actual data are telling us Omicron isn't particularly dangerous, quite possibly LESS dangerous than the Delta variant we've had around for 6-8 months, and yet the mediots at The Atlantic insist on shock-based headlines with loaded words like "specter of a new variant." 

That's precisely why so many are vexed about this ongoing fear-porn delivery of Covid news.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 14, 2021, 04:55:37 PM
Quote from: utee94 on December 14, 2021, 04:47:44 PM
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2021/12/omicron-pandemic-fatigue-gen-z/620960/



CD was asking how the media had over-hyped Omicron, and here's just one example among hundreds or even thousands.  So far, the actual data are telling us Omicron isn't particularly dangerous, quite possibly LESS dangerous than the Delta variant we've had around for 6-8 months, and yet the mediots at The Atlantic insist on shock-based headlines with loaded words like "specter of a new variant." 

That's precisely why so many are vexed about this ongoing fear-porn delivery of Covid news.


Just glad I don’t have to be in one of the 9 states requiring masking indoors for even those fully vaccinated.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on December 14, 2021, 05:04:15 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 10, 2021, 10:12:17 AM
you just have to use a bullshit filter

Mine is pretty good

its been in development a very long time
Mmmm, a good broad spectrum BS filter would do as all some good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 14, 2021, 05:45:53 PM
all, including the political "leaders" in 9 states
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 14, 2021, 06:21:27 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on December 14, 2021, 04:55:37 PM
Just glad I don’t have to be in one of the 9 states requiring masking indoors for even those fully vaccinated. 
I'm just curious how they would even go about enforcing that.Prolly many of the places where PDs were defunded
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on December 14, 2021, 06:26:29 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on December 14, 2021, 06:21:27 PM
I'm just curious how they would even go about enforcing that.Prolly many of the places where PDs were defunded
They mostly don't. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 14, 2021, 06:36:54 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on December 14, 2021, 06:21:27 PM
I'm just curious how they would even go about enforcing that.Prolly many of the places where PDs were defunded
Generally it's enforced by the business. For example large companies like Costco or the local brands of Kroger/Safeway aren't going to just let you in unmasked if it's required by the state.

The businesses don't want to be fined, so you don't need gendarmes with truncheons at every entrance to stomp the citizens who don't comply--the businesses will tell people to mask up. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 14, 2021, 06:53:07 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 14, 2021, 06:36:54 PM
Generally it's enforced by the business. For example large companies like Costco or the local brands of Kroger/Safeway aren't going to just let you in unmasked if it's required by the state.

The businesses don't want to be fined, so you don't need gendarmes with truncheons at every entrance to stomp the citizens who don't comply--the businesses will tell people to mask up.



But can a business really be fined if they instruct a customer to mask up, and the customer refuses?  What's the business supposed to do?  As you say, they're not in the business of using gendarmes armed with truncheons to enforce store rules.  And, after a couple of widely publicized employee run-ins with unruly customers, most businesses around here specifically instructed their employees not to engage with customers at all.

They post signs, and might ask you as you enter to mask up, and if you don't, that's it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 14, 2021, 07:32:59 PM
Quote from: utee94 on December 14, 2021, 06:53:07 PM
But can a business really be fined if they instruct a customer to mask up, and the customer refuses?  What's the business supposed to do?  As you say, they're not in the business of using gendarmes armed with truncheons to enforce store rules.  And, after a couple of widely publicized employee run-ins with unruly customers, most businesses around here specifically instructed their employees not to engage with customers at all.

They post signs, and might ask you as you enter to mask up, and if you don't, that's it.
I think a lot of it has to do with making an attempt to comply.

For example, an In & Out Burger in San Francisco was closed because they basically did not even attempt to check vaccination status which what the SF requirement: https://www.npr.org/2021/10/20/1047638276/in-n-out-burger-san-francisco-vaccine-mandate

I suspect that here in OC, if a business like Costco is making sure that people are wearing masks when they walk in the building but a few people have them under their nose as they're going through the store, they wouldn't make an issue of it. But if Costco was letting anyone who wanted to walk in without a mask and people were just walking around the store with no mask with no repercussions, then there might be an issue. 

As with anything, you can attempt to punish every bit of non-compliance or you can focus on the egregious ones. I assume that only the egregious cases will attract any attention. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 14, 2021, 07:41:41 PM
The Supreme Court turned away two emergency requests Monday from health care workers, doctors and nurses in New York to block the state's vaccine mandate.

Justices Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch and Clarence Thomas dissented.
The dispute arose when three nurses and a group called We the Patriots USA, Inc, challenged the mandate, arguing that it allowed exemptions for those with medical objections but not for people with religious objections.
The rule, which is currently in effect, covers workers in hospitals and nursing homes, home health agencies, adult centers as well as hospices. Several doctors who say they have treated many patients with Covid filed a separate request with the justices.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 14, 2021, 07:51:04 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 14, 2021, 07:41:41 PM
The Supreme Court turned away two emergency requests Monday from health care workers, doctors and nurses in New York to block the state's vaccine mandate.

Justices Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch and Clarence Thomas dissented.
The dispute arose when three nurses and a group called We the Patriots USA, Inc, challenged the mandate, arguing that it allowed exemptions for those with medical objections but not for people with religious objections.
The rule, which is currently in effect, covers workers in hospitals and nursing homes, home health agencies, adult centers as well as hospices. Several doctors who say they have treated many patients with Covid filed a separate request with the justices.

Interesting case...

https://reason.com/volokh/2021/12/13/what-did-governor-hochul-say-about-religion/

Appears to be somewhat of the inverse of the Masterpiece Cakeshop case. In that case the course didn't affirm the concept that a religious baker didn't have to bake a cake for a gay wedding, which a lot of people claimed. They said that the lower court ruling forcing the baker to do so was invalid because it was based on anti-religious animus, and thus wasn't fairly decided. 

This seems to be the opposite, at least from the standpoint of Gorsuch in dissent. The reasoning the new Governor publicly used to remove a religious exemption didn't appear to be based on a public health or legitimate government interest that overruled a religious exemption--it appeared to be a personal objection to the very idea of a religious exemption to a vaccine. 

Note: I have not actually read the majority opinion or the dissent--this is purely what I'm picking up from what I've read...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 17, 2021, 09:24:09 AM
I'm calling this good news.


Omicron is dominant in wastewater samples in Florida county (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/omicron-is-dominant-in-wastewater-samples-in-florida-county/ar-AARSTuj?ocid=msedgntp)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 17, 2021, 09:51:15 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 17, 2021, 09:24:09 AM
I'm calling this good news.


Omicron is dominant in wastewater samples in Florida county (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/omicron-is-dominant-in-wastewater-samples-in-florida-county/ar-AARSTuj?ocid=msedgntp)
I think so too

somebody needs to tell the media this is a good thing

all thats happening seems to be lock downs which is stupid
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 17, 2021, 12:44:02 PM
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/12/17/covid-vaccination-and-previous-infection-may-deliver-super-immunity/8925072002/

Paywall so I didn't get to read the whole thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 17, 2021, 12:44:30 PM
This is really good news.

Breakthrough infections generate 'super immunity' to COVID-19, study suggests (medicalxpress.com) (https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-12-breakthrough-infections-super-immunity-covid-.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 17, 2021, 12:44:55 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 17, 2021, 12:44:02 PM
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/12/17/covid-vaccination-and-previous-infection-may-deliver-super-immunity/8925072002/

Paywall so I didn't get to read the whole thing.
See my post. Not pay wall.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 17, 2021, 02:53:08 PM
Very interesting.

South Africa Hospitalization Rate Plunges in Omicron Wave (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/south-africa-hospitalization-rate-plunges-in-omicron-wave/ar-AARU5G2?ocid=msedgntp&li=BBnb7Kz)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 18, 2021, 09:46:06 AM
There's the uptick I expected. The good news is that the ICU beds in the state are all <5% Covid. 

So, this thing could be starting to poop out, and become the common cold, if that.

(https://i.imgur.com/MsXrKBT.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 18, 2021, 09:47:00 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/DSR9qQP.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on December 18, 2021, 08:25:06 PM
The Dutch are packing up the shop until at least January 9. 

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/netherlands-set-announce-strict-christmas-lockdown-media-2021-12-18/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 19, 2021, 08:09:46 AM
That's just crazy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on December 19, 2021, 08:40:17 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 18, 2021, 09:46:06 AM
There's the uptick I expected. The good news is that the ICU beds in the state are all <5% Covid.

So, this thing could be starting to poop out, and become the common cold, if that.


Your mouth, god's ears, etc. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 19, 2021, 03:59:21 PM
https://granthshala.com/move-over-superman-covid-19-super-immunity-possible-after-breakthrough-infections-study-finds/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on December 21, 2021, 10:24:56 PM
The Canadians are tossing the sponge. BC and Quebec go today, and my friends in GTA are expecting to pack it up this week. 

https://twitter.com/PaulMeekPerth/status/1473480547691163651?t=CK4xj3r-XUIavzHmPmpv1g&s=19

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on December 21, 2021, 10:46:25 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on December 21, 2021, 10:24:56 PM
The Canadians are tossing the sponge. BC and Quebec go today, and my friends in GTA are expecting to pack it up this week.

https://twitter.com/PaulMeekPerth/status/1473480547691163651?t=CK4xj3r-XUIavzHmPmpv1g&s=19


Deny hospital access to anti-vaxxers, and let the rational population go about their normal lives.   If they are going to deny medicine, make them commit to the bit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 22, 2021, 08:12:10 AM
Quote from: ELA on December 21, 2021, 10:46:25 PM
Deny hospital access to anti-vaxxers, and let the rational population go about their normal lives.  If they are going to deny medicine, make them commit to the bit.
Since this new variant readily infects the vaccinated, and they are obviously transmitting it- this misplaced demonization of the unvaccinated ( many of whom have antibodies since they already had it) is so misplaced, stupid, and humorous.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2021, 08:53:29 AM
Well, I disagree with the premise of not providing care to the unvaccinated. I understand the frustration, believe me.

We provide care to people who pull triggers on others. We provide care to drunks who wrapped their cars around trees. 

I don't think I need to go further here.

It is inhumane to deny healthcare to anyone, for any reason.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on December 22, 2021, 09:09:32 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on December 22, 2021, 08:12:10 AM
Since this new variant readily infects the vaccinated, and they are obviously transmitting it- this misplaced demonization of the unvaccinated ( many of whom have antibodies since they already had it) is so misplaced, stupid, and humorous. 
As Badge points out, it isn't really any different than being annoyed at providing health care for drunks or drug addicts or smokers or whomever else. I agree that limiting access to health care is a path we shouldn't go down, but I also understand being pretty annoyed at people for self inflicted problems that hurt everyone else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2021, 09:13:31 AM
Again, I completely understand the frustration. I'd be pissed if I needed a bed and could not get one due to addicts, guns, Covid, etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 22, 2021, 09:33:38 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on December 22, 2021, 08:12:10 AM
Since this new variant readily infects the vaccinated, and they are obviously transmitting it- this misplaced demonization of the unvaccinated ( many of whom have antibodies since they already had it) is so misplaced, stupid, and humorous. 
Thank You HB,I only have 80/20 health care so I'm still paying down some stays from '18/'19 and been very careful. But one size doesn't fit all regarding medicines.For instance even though I was in great shape at the time I could not take Antihistamines/Decongestants and had bad reactions,increased pulse and breathing problems.So this could happen to anyone who may be allergic.Also - I only had the flu one time,and my Doc thought because I had stayed in the hostpital for long stretches at a time with my ill mother.

  My nephew and his wife (she's head of a PT unit at a large area Hospital) and their kids all were vaxed by April 2020 and now have had the virus twice - so this thing is going to make it's rounds.However my Brother,that nephew's dad had horrible reactions to the Moderna shot and is not taking any follow ups.Other brother and sister had little/no problems.I've already mentioned a friend I volunteer with her cousin died the same day she had the shot and I believe they reported that to some organization.I stay informed and take precautions.That narrative gets irksome dare one a % of the vaxed parade around taking no precautions thinking themselves ramped up and imervious

 Ive been listening to this DR John Campbell from the UK for a while,very informative with different guests from various medical backgrounds in his podcasts.This one is interesting as they are discussing/comparing the differing results from Denmark and Norway.Just because of the way the jab/stick is being adminstered.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkopHLQjtVQ&lc=Ugw2D4CSdEsZ523LZ7x4AaABAg.9WAhzjklYkT9WEqHcopqbu
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on December 22, 2021, 09:40:09 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on December 22, 2021, 08:12:10 AM
Since this new variant readily infects the vaccinated, and they are obviously transmitting it- this misplaced demonization of the unvaccinated ( many of whom have antibodies since they already had it) is so misplaced, stupid, and humorous. 
Sure, but they aren't taking up the beds when they get it.  Of course they are getting it, and transmitting it, but they aren't preventing others from receiving care
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 22, 2021, 09:45:25 AM
IMHO this is a must see when time alots

https://youtu.be/w9h-XQm2qEY
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2021, 09:51:25 AM
We take vitamins C, D and zinc daily.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2021, 09:51:50 AM
Lots of promise here.

Omicron Has 80% Lower Risk of Hospitalization, New Study Shows (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/omicron-has-80-25-lower-risk-of-hospitalization-new-study-shows/ar-AAS3ofK?ocid=uxbndlbing)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 22, 2021, 09:52:22 AM
Quote from: ELA on December 22, 2021, 09:40:09 AM
Sure, but they aren't taking up the beds when they get it.  Of course they are getting it, and transmitting it, but they aren't preventing others from receiving care
They're not taking up ALL the beds.Just like 2 yrs ago when the same Hospitals were tagging covid on people dying from cancer/diabetes and other diseases - that really happened and I heard directly from 2 nurses in health care.As Northern Ohio Buckeye posted some such 2 yrs ago
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 22, 2021, 09:53:26 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2021, 09:51:50 AM
Lots of promise here.

Omicron Has 80% Lower Risk of Hospitalization, New Study Shows (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/omicron-has-80-25-lower-risk-of-hospitalization-new-study-shows/ar-AAS3ofK?ocid=uxbndlbing)
That Dr Campbell I just linked mentioned this a month back when it was stirring in S.Africa
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on December 22, 2021, 09:57:50 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on December 22, 2021, 09:52:22 AM
They're not taking up ALL the beds.Just like 2 yrs ago when the same Hospitals were tagging covid on people dying from cancer/diabetes and other diseases - that really happened and I heard directly from 2 nurses in health care.As Northern Ohio Buckeye posted some such 2 yrs ago
I never said they were taking up all the beds.  I said of the people being hospitalized for this, the vast, vast majority are the unvaccinated.  Don't deny them medical care, but only give them a bed if they aren't preventing someone else from getting one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 22, 2021, 09:58:29 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2021, 09:51:25 AM
We take vitamins C, D and zinc daily.
Watch that video,if you take D3 you have to take some K2 as these are usaully come hand in hand naturally.That Israeli DR got plenty of sun as he lives on the Mediteranean but still had low levels of D.Evidently have to be careful with K2 for sure
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 22, 2021, 10:02:01 AM
Quote from: ELA on December 22, 2021, 09:57:50 AM
I never said they were taking up all the beds.  I said of the people being hospitalized for this, the vast, vast majority are the unvaccinated.  Don't deny them medical care, but only give them a bed if they aren't preventing someone else from getting one.
Well "taking up" would imply that but Vaxed or not a lot of people head to the doctor for things that aren't life threatening at all.Complaining of symptoms that turn out quite mild sometime,simply because you can't swing a dead cat with out hearing the sky is falling and head for the hills type hype
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2021, 10:04:04 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on December 22, 2021, 09:58:29 AM
Watch that video,if you take D3 you have to take some K2 as these are usaully come hand in hand naturally.That Israeli DR got plenty of sun as he lives on the Mediteranean but still had low levels of D.Evidently have to be careful with K2 for sure
We get plenty of K2 from food. No need to supplement that one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 22, 2021, 10:08:31 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2021, 10:04:04 AM
We get plenty of K2 from food. No need to supplement that one.
But that specialist said if your short you may have to and the only way to know for sure is a blood test.because if your getting plenty of K2 then you're prolly getting enough D.But if you're still on this side of the dirt you must be doing something right 😎
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 22, 2021, 10:16:08 AM
Quote from: ELA on December 22, 2021, 09:57:50 AM
I never said they were taking up all the beds.  I said of the people being hospitalized for this, the vast, vast majority are the unvaccinated.  Don't deny them medical care, but only give them a bed if they aren't preventing someone else from getting one.

Is their data to support this?   

I hear it thrown out there anecdotally but many states have not released their actual data.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 22, 2021, 10:22:23 AM
Newsom now plans to mandate healthcare workers to get the booster as well as the vaccine to be considered "fully vaccinated". 

Exactly how much evidence do we have that the booster makes any difference to Omicron? Because the vaccination, despite waning protection against infection over time to Delta, appears to remain robust at the goal--avoiding hospitalization and death. 

I'm pro-vaccine, and pro-booster, but I think these mandates are going too damn far. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 22, 2021, 10:27:45 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on December 22, 2021, 10:16:08 AM
Is their data to support this? 

I hear it thrown out there anecdotally but many states have not released their actual data.


God Damned Drug Companies would have you believe it.They have their place in society and science has done wonders but don't for one second think many these peddlers don't have ulterior motives
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2021, 10:38:51 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on December 22, 2021, 10:16:08 AM
Is their data to support this? 

I hear it thrown out there anecdotally but many states have not released their actual data.


Florida has an old population, and Covid patients comprise 5-10% of all ICU admissions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 22, 2021, 10:39:39 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 22, 2021, 10:22:23 AM
Newsom now plans to mandate healthcare workers to get the booster as well as the vaccine to be considered "fully vaccinated".

Exactly how much evidence do we have that the booster makes any difference to Omicron? Because the vaccination, despite waning protection against infection over time to Delta, appears to remain robust at the goal--avoiding hospitalization and death.

I'm pro-vaccine, and pro-booster, but I think these mandates are going too damn far.
Exactly.   I don’t know that there’s any authoritative evidence to suggest that the booster enhances your protection against Omnicron . 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Abba on December 22, 2021, 10:47:10 AM
You guys are following this much closer than I am, but I understood that the booster isn't giving additional protection.  It is just trying to restore the original protection we got from the vaccine, which wanes over time.  I believe the original vaccine / booster (which is just a decreased dose of the vaccine really) will provide some protection against omicron, but is not specifically designed against that variant.

I know there have been talks about an omicron-specific vaccine, but I don't know that it's necessary at this point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2021, 10:49:14 AM
Based on everything I see from reliable* sources, Omicron is the beginning of the end of this pandemic.

March/April 2022, or so.


* not easy to find
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on December 22, 2021, 10:53:53 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on December 22, 2021, 10:39:39 AM
Exactly.  I don’t know that there’s any authoritative evidence to suggest that the booster enhances your protection against Omnicron .
https://apnews.com/article/moderna-booster-vaccine-omicron-coronavirus-pandemic-f846e8f59aa22c9c7d198162e5cbca6b

The folks at Moderna beg to differ.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2021, 10:54:54 AM
Of course they do...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on December 22, 2021, 11:00:31 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on December 22, 2021, 08:12:10 AM
Since this new variant readily infects the vaccinated, and they are obviously transmitting it- this misplaced demonization of the unvaccinated ( many of whom have antibodies since they already had it) is so misplaced, stupid, and humorous. 
Authorities tell people that stay behind in mandatory-evacuation zones for hurricanes to write their Social Security numbers on their arms in permanent marker. 

Demonizing those who make poor decisions is not a  new concept.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 22, 2021, 11:04:00 AM
the scarlet letter
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 22, 2021, 11:06:46 AM
Quote from: Abba on December 22, 2021, 10:47:10 AM
You guys are following this much closer than I am, but I understood that the booster isn't giving additional protection.  It is just trying to restore the original protection we got from the vaccine, which wanes over time.  I believe the original vaccine / booster (which is just a decreased dose of the vaccine really) will provide some protection against omicron, but is not specifically designed against that variant.

I know there have been talks about an omicron-specific vaccine, but I don't know that it's necessary at this point.
From what we know, protection against INFECTION wanes over time, but protection against hospitalization and death seems more robust. The booster spikes your antibody levels, so it should restore protection against infection, at least for the known variant of Delta. 

Omicron is an unknown, still. It appears to have more ability to evade vaccine protection against infection, but it also appears to have less severity of outcome. We don't really know yet how well the vaccines protect against Omicron, nor how much additional protection a booster would provide in the case of waning immunity from a vaccine course 6-12 months previous.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 22, 2021, 11:13:13 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on December 22, 2021, 10:53:53 AM
https://apnews.com/article/moderna-booster-vaccine-omicron-coronavirus-pandemic-f846e8f59aa22c9c7d198162e5cbca6b

The folks at Moderna beg to differ.
Interesting. The article doesn't go into enough detail, but I found the actual press release.

I wasn't sure the extent to which these antibodies actually respond to Omicron, but at the very least the press release says that it neutralizes the Omicron variant in vitro. Which isn't everything, but it ain't nothin' either. 

Thanks for passing that along. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 22, 2021, 11:22:24 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on December 22, 2021, 10:53:53 AM
https://apnews.com/article/moderna-booster-vaccine-omicron-coronavirus-pandemic-f846e8f59aa22c9c7d198162e5cbca6b

The folks at Moderna beg to differ.
I wonder how the folks in New York City feel about that. Some say it’s the most vaccinated big city in the world, and has the strictest vaccine and mask mandates.

and it is now being referred to as ground zero for Omnicron. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on December 22, 2021, 11:22:53 AM
46% of ICU beds in Pennsylvania are COVID, 88% of those are unvaccinated
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on December 22, 2021, 11:24:26 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2021, 10:49:14 AM
Based on everything I see from reliable* sources, Omicron is the beginning of the end of this pandemic.

March/April 2022, or so.


* not easy to find
https://twitter.com/business/status/1473623053900918795?s=20
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 22, 2021, 11:29:50 AM
https://news.yahoo.com/most-reported-u-omicron-cases-182642515.html

So then why this take??

https://news.yahoo.com/omicron-cases-explode-mn-see-151831879.html

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 22, 2021, 11:35:18 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on December 22, 2021, 11:00:31 AM
Authorities tell people that stay behind in mandatory-evacuation zones for hurricanes to write their Social Security numbers on their arms in permanent marker.

Demonizing those who make poor decisions is not a  new concept.
Not a good analogy by the way.  People who stay behind and hurricanes are not putting anyone else at risk.

The inference being made now is that the unvaccinated are putting the vaccinated at risk for Omni Kron which is completely false.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 22, 2021, 11:41:08 AM
Quote from: ELA on December 22, 2021, 11:22:53 AM
46% of ICU beds in Pennsylvania are COVID, 88% of those are unvaccinated
Not sure where you got that data- but I will take your word for it because it is consistent with what we’ve seen for the last year.

but this conversation is about the new variant. So how many people are hospitalized with the new variant? And what percentage of those people are fully vaccinated?   Everything I can find on who is getting infected points towards people with vaccinations being the overwhelming majority of those getting infected. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on December 22, 2021, 11:51:29 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on December 22, 2021, 11:41:08 AM
Not sure where you got that data- but I will take your word for it because it is consistent with what we’ve seen for the last year.

but this conversation is about the new variant. So how many people are hospitalized with the new variant? And what percentage of those people are fully vaccinated?  Everything I can find on who is getting infected points towards people with vaccinations being the overwhelming majority of those getting infected.
Interview with the head of the UPenn (I think?) hospital system.  Either way, one of the Philly hospital systems
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 22, 2021, 12:31:29 PM
are folks getting omicron protected from getting delta
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 22, 2021, 12:37:17 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 22, 2021, 12:31:29 PM
are folks getting omicron protected from getting delta
Probably?

Not a whole lot of data out there. There should be some crossover immunity between strains, but how much, we don't really know. 

The info GopherRock posted upthread about Moderna suggests in their press release that the vaccine antibodies neutralize Omicron in a petri dish, which isn't exactly the same as in the human body, but it's suggestive that the antibodies have cross-strain protection. 

My guess is that Delta will provide pretty good protection from Omicron, and Omicron will provide pretty good protection from Delta. In all cases (vaccine or natural immunity), that protection from infection wanes over time though. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 22, 2021, 12:53:36 PM
Is it possible we have not heard about being protected when getting omicron from the media because it doesnt fit the narrative

If omicron has spread to almost 75% of virus positives and not one death in US from omicron somebody knows something they are not telling

yes cases are way up but deaths so far are not increasing and in many places are decreasing

not one word about this in media

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 22, 2021, 01:04:56 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 22, 2021, 12:53:36 PM
Is it possible we have not heard about being protected when getting omicron from the media because it doesnt fit the narrative

If omicron has spread to almost 75% of virus positives and not one death in US from omicron somebody knows something they are not telling

yes cases are way up but deaths so far are not increasing and in many places are decreasing

not one word about this in media
NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/06/world/africa/omicron-coronavirus-research-spread.html

Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-22/omicron-has-80-lower-risk-of-hospitalization-new-study-shows

NPR: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/12/17/1065315661/omicron-may-be-less-severe-in-south-africa-that-may-not-be-the-case-for-the-u-s

Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/22/data-appears-to-support-claims-that-omicron-is-less-severe-in-south-africa

That's just on the first page of a quick google search, and you all know how Google is biased, so if they're putting this on the first page of results, I don't think you can say "not one word about this in media". 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 22, 2021, 01:08:16 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 22, 2021, 01:04:56 PM
NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/06/world/africa/omicron-coronavirus-research-spread.html

Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-22/omicron-has-80-lower-risk-of-hospitalization-new-study-shows

NPR: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/12/17/1065315661/omicron-may-be-less-severe-in-south-africa-that-may-not-be-the-case-for-the-u-s

Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/22/data-appears-to-support-claims-that-omicron-is-less-severe-in-south-africa

That's just on the first page of a quick google search, and you all know how Google is biased, so if they're putting this on the first page of results, I don't think you can say "not one word about this in media".
all they talk about is how omicron may be less severe then delta
thats not what Im talking about
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 22, 2021, 04:12:53 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 22, 2021, 01:08:16 PM
all they talk about is how omicron may be less severe then delta
thats not what Im talking about
Well we don't know the level of protection that Omicron gives you to Delta, if that's what you're talking about. Omicron is WAY too new for that. So I don't know how they would talk about that before studies are done and reported, and studies take time. 

Some media outlets are saying Omicron appears to be less severe. Other media outlets (or other writers from the same outlets) are saying that we shouldn't be complacent based upon the early data about Omicron's severity and that vaccination/boosters are still important. Other media outlets (a few days ago) said that vaccination followed by natural infection is super-immunity. 

I don't know what you're complaining about... Can you be more clear? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 22, 2021, 04:21:29 PM
as of today omicron makes up 75% of new cases

the new case count is very high and yet hospitalizations and death count remain constant and even decrease in many areas

what this looks like is that omicron is taking over from delta with just cold like symptoms and near zero death count

all one has to do is look at the results in South Africa to see where we are going

yet the media ignores this

and Im not complaining Im just pointing out what appears to be a reluctance from the media to talk about encouraging news 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 22, 2021, 04:31:39 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 22, 2021, 04:21:29 PM
as of today omicron makes up 75% of new cases

the new case count is very high and yet hospitalizations and death count remain constant and even decrease in many areas

what this looks like is that omicron is taking over from delta with just cold like symptoms and near zero death count

all one has to do is look at the results in South Africa to see where we are going

yet the media ignores this

and Im not complaining Im just pointing out what appears to be a reluctance from the media to talk about encouraging news
But they are talking about it. They're talking about how the evidence shows that Omicron is less severe than Delta. They're talking about how in South Africa, things look WAY better than you would expect if Omicron was as severe as Delta.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 22, 2021, 04:43:19 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 22, 2021, 04:31:39 PM
But they are talking about it. They're talking about how the evidence shows that Omicron is less severe than Delta. They're talking about how in South Africa, things look WAY better than you would expect if Omicron was as severe as Delta.

Just gloom and doom and shutdowns coming from our leaders with some exceptions which I wont elaborate on

I have not seen much of what you say the media is saying but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and just say maybe our leaders will start listening to it

and its more then South Africa
Great Britain has a very high new case rate because omicron has taken over but their new covid hospitalizations
is very low as is their new covid death count
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 22, 2021, 04:45:55 PM
somebody fully vaccinated that gets omicron will have a very high (some are calling it super) immunity going forward
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 22, 2021, 04:53:00 PM
the beginning of the end

hopefully
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2021, 04:55:04 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 22, 2021, 04:45:55 PM
somebody fully vaccinated that gets omicron will have a very high (some are calling it super) immunity going forward
Yep. We are going to have an Omicron party when we get back from Cabo.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 22, 2021, 04:59:08 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 22, 2021, 04:45:55 PM
somebody fully vaccinated that gets omicron will have a very high (some are calling it super) immunity going forward
Why my nephew and wife got Covid twice,and haven't got the 3rd shot yet.I don't follow that line of reasong but I hope it's true
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 22, 2021, 05:03:43 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2021, 04:55:04 PM
Yep. We are going to have an Omicron party when we get back from Cabo.
Hey theres worse ideas and there will really be some of those IMHO
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 22, 2021, 05:22:32 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 22, 2021, 04:43:19 PM
Just gloom and doom and shutdowns coming from our leaders with some exceptions which I wont elaborate on

I have not seen much of what you say the media is saying but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and just say maybe our leaders will start listening to it
Well, define "leaders". I can think of one (POTUS) who just said schools "must" remain open. I can think of several governors who are absolutely not talking about shutdowns or other gloom and doom.

My own governor (Newsom), not so much. Pushed a statewide indoor mask mandate and just mandated that healthcare workers MUST have boosters by Feb 1 to be considered vaccinated. In a state where we're seeing, AT MOST, a minor blip in cases, and are still showing a gradual downward trend in deaths. 

So, let's not act like there's one "the media", or, for that matter, one "our leaders". It's a lot of different people with different opinions and interests, not one single entity. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 22, 2021, 05:54:49 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 22, 2021, 05:22:32 PM
Well, define "leaders". I can think of one (POTUS) who just said schools "must" remain open. I can think of several governors who are absolutely not talking about shutdowns or other gloom and doom.

My own governor (Newsom), not so much. Pushed a statewide indoor mask mandate and just mandated that healthcare workers MUST have boosters by Feb 1 to be considered vaccinated. In a state where we're seeing, AT MOST, a minor blip in cases, and are still showing a gradual downward trend in deaths.

So, let's not act like there's one "the media", or, for that matter, one "our leaders". It's a lot of different people with different opinions and interests, not one single entity.
He also said this season will be known as the season of death

I could name several governors pushing lockdowns and strict mask policies

If you go back and look at my post I said there were exceptions to leaders crying death and despair 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 22, 2021, 06:02:55 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 22, 2021, 05:54:49 PM
He also said this season will be known as the season of death

I could name several governors pushing lockdowns and strict mask policies

If you go back and look at my post I said there were exceptions to leaders crying death and despair


Your first complaint was "the media", and now it's "leaders". I can name several governors pushing lockdowns and strict mask policies. I can also name several governors advocating the exact opposite. "Our leaders" are not all or nothing, just as it's not all or nothing when you refer to "the media". 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 22, 2021, 06:14:05 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 22, 2021, 06:02:55 PM
Your first complaint was "the media", and now it's "leaders". I can name several governors pushing lockdowns and strict mask policies. I can also name several governors advocating the exact opposite. "Our leaders" are not all or nothing, just as it's not all or nothing when you refer to "the media".
really?

thats the best ya got?

Again if you go back and look at my post I said there were exceptions.  What about exception dont you understand?

The important thing here is that you have both media and leaders pushing this armageddon response just because they are complete idiots and oblivious to the actual facts
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 22, 2021, 06:43:28 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 22, 2021, 06:14:05 PM
really?

thats the best ya got?

Again if you go back and look at my post I said there were exceptions.  What about exception dont you understand?

The important thing here is that you have both media and leaders pushing this armageddon response just because they are complete idiots and oblivious to the actual facts
FFS. You started this with "not one word about this in the media".

Now you're going to backtrack and say there are "exceptions", while at the same time you double down with "both media and leaders pushing this Armageddon response". 

Which is it. Is it "not one word"? Or is it both the media and leaders? Or are there exceptions? And do the exceptions mean that they're words that don't therefore count when you say "not one word"?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 22, 2021, 07:13:02 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 22, 2021, 06:43:28 PM
FFS. You started this with "not one word about this in the media".

Now you're going to backtrack and say there are "exceptions", while at the same time you double down with "both media and leaders pushing this Armageddon response".

Which is it. Is it "not one word"? Or is it both the media and leaders? Or are there exceptions? And do the exceptions mean that they're words that don't therefore count when you say "not one word"?
When I said exceptions I was referring to leaders and Ive already said Id give you the benefit of the doubt concerning media

I said we have both media and leaders pushing the armageddon response not meaning all but some

you are building a strawman concerning media and leaders determined to skip over the main reason I even posted

Yes we have some media and some leaders being stupid and oblivious to the facts

did I say it right?

In short these eggheads want to once again shut down our economy when its clear thats not necessary

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 22, 2021, 07:16:23 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 22, 2021, 07:13:02 PM
When I said exceptions I was referring to leaders and Ive already said Id give you the benefit of the doubt concerning media

I said we have both media and leaders pushing the armageddon response not meaning all but some

you are building a strawman concerning media and leaders determined to skip over the main reason I even posted

Yes we have some media and some leaders being stupid and oblivious to the facts

did I say it right?

In short these eggheads want to once again shut down our economy when its clear thats not necessary


Okay... So I guess your point is...

"Some people are doing some things and some people are doing other things but I'm gonna focus on the ones doing the things I don't like and yell at them."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 22, 2021, 07:28:19 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 22, 2021, 07:16:23 PM
Okay... So I guess your point is...

"Some people are doing some things and some people are doing other things but I'm gonna focus on the ones doing the things I don't like and yell at them."
yep when it includes The President and at least 5 state governors plus at least 5 major media outlets

you got it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on December 22, 2021, 08:03:04 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 22, 2021, 12:53:36 PM
Is it possible we have not heard about being protected when getting omicron from the media because it doesnt fit the narrative

If omicron has spread to almost 75% of virus positives and not one death in US from omicron somebody knows something they are not telling

yes cases are way up but deaths so far are not increasing and in many places are decreasing

not one word about this in media


If there's not one word, where'd you see it?

(Earlier, you spoke about the old BS detector. And when people start talking about nary word across millions of them each day, mine starts a beeping)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 22, 2021, 08:34:34 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on December 22, 2021, 08:03:04 PM
If there's not one word, where'd you see it?

(Earlier, you spoke about the old BS detector. And when people start talking about nary word across millions of them each day, mine starts a beeping)
Being from a state where the governor is implementing various shutdown policies I would have thought you would take this much more seriously then you are

why dont you see the seriousness of his actions

you can pick on my choice of words all you want but when your freedom is being taken away I would have thought you would have a much more concerned reaction

and since you are saying my concerns are BS I dont see any need for further discussion 

good luck and keep wearing that mask
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 22, 2021, 09:37:12 PM
I'm not sure where BAB lives but I'm pretty sure it's not California...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on December 22, 2021, 09:43:12 PM
More media not discussing it I guess?

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/business/money-report/omicron-could-burn-through-the-u-s-and-potentially-hasten-the-covid-pandemics-end-says-expert/2713831/?_osource=SocialFlowFB_CHBrand&source=sm_npd_nbc_chi_twt_genChicago-cnbc&fbclid=IwAR1Q_DxG1_SV98VywkDOqFq1rUyYm6rGT4g3LoEO4hB2aOb0o5DJGkDiPcY
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 22, 2021, 09:50:19 PM
CNN not discussing it:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/22/health/omicron-delta-covid-hospitalization-risk/index.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 22, 2021, 09:59:37 PM
Good info: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/12/omicron-mild-covid-variant-severity/621090/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 22, 2021, 10:14:40 PM
Quote from: ELA on December 22, 2021, 09:43:12 PM
More media not discussing it I guess?

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/business/money-report/omicron-could-burn-through-the-u-s-and-potentially-hasten-the-covid-pandemics-end-says-expert/2713831/?_osource=SocialFlowFB_CHBrand&source=sm_npd_nbc_chi_twt_genChicago-cnbc&fbclid=IwAR1Q_DxG1_SV98VywkDOqFq1rUyYm6rGT4g3LoEO4hB2aOb0o5DJGkDiPcY
yep its the first such report Ive seen from them on the positive side of omicron

now if we can just get our President to read it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 22, 2021, 10:18:41 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 22, 2021, 09:50:19 PM
CNN not discussing it:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/22/health/omicron-delta-covid-hospitalization-risk/index.html
the reduced risk is good to tell folks but not really what Id like to see

for the whole picture

its basically taking over from delta and so far very low hospitalization and death

in fact one country Australia is basically allowing the omicron free to infect in hopes of getting herd immunity

while I dont recommend that it is interesting
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on December 22, 2021, 10:24:49 PM
Quote from: ELA on December 21, 2021, 10:46:25 PM
Deny hospital access to anti-vaxxers, and let the rational population go about their normal lives.  If they are going to deny medicine, make them commit to the bit.
I find myself of several minds on this. 

I can understand the angst of medical personal. It must be very frustrating for a person who refuses your advice to suddenly consume your time and resources because they now suddenly trust you. Extra points if a patient comes in with ideas about their treatment. 

And at least the way the discussion often go, that particular group has seemed to offer little quarter or understanding tone. Were the shoe on the other foot, many would say the same thing.

But in the end, I can't escape the feeling that unless someone is actively being a problem people in distress deserve care and kindness, even if they might not give it. We live in a society quick to snark and anger, quick to generalize and dismiss for all sorts of reasons. It's good to extend this group a basically decency, in hopes that we all get better at extending each other some basic decency. I know, that's Pollyanna, but I can hope. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on December 22, 2021, 10:44:40 PM
Interesting thoughts on boosters from the WHO

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/12/22/who-says-covid-vaccine-booster-programs-will-prolong-pandemic.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 23, 2021, 12:12:14 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on December 22, 2021, 10:24:49 PM
I find myself of several minds on this.

I can understand the angst of medical personal. It must be very frustrating for a person who refuses your advice to suddenly consume your time and resources because they now suddenly trust you. Extra points if a patient comes in with ideas about their treatment.

And at least the way the discussion often go, that particular group has seemed to offer little quarter or understanding tone. Were the shoe on the other foot, many would say the same thing.

But in the end, I can't escape the feeling that unless someone is actively being a problem people in distress deserve care and kindness, even if they might not give it. We live in a society quick to snark and anger, quick to generalize and dismiss for all sorts of reasons. It's good to extend this group a basically decency, in hopes that we all get better at extending each other some basic decency. I know, that's Pollyanna, but I can hope.

We don't deny treatment to smokers and the morbidly obese and helmetless motorcycle riders.  Why would we deny treatment for this?

The response that "they're endangering others by allowing unchecked transmission" isn't good enough in 2022, over two years into this thing, and knowing how common breakthrough infections are becoming. 

From what I can tell, anyone seriously advocating the position of denying treatment to the unvaxed, is really just doing so for punitive reasons.  And that's not a conversation I'm going to bother having with anyone.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on December 23, 2021, 12:27:17 AM
Quote from: utee94 on December 23, 2021, 12:12:14 AM
We don't deny treatment to smokers and the morbidly obese and helmetless motorcycle riders.  Why would we deny treatment for this?

The response that "they're endangering others by allowing unchecked transmission" isn't good enough in 2022, over two years into this thing, and knowing how common breakthrough infections are becoming. 

From what I can tell, anyone seriously advocating the position of denying treatment to the unvaxed, is really just doing so for punitive reasons.  And that's not a conversation I'm going to bother having with anyone.


This is true. 

There's sort of an irony that not long ago, there was a good bit of ... I'll call it punitive attitude when it came to the topic of the obese and overweight and this particular illness. It was overstated to a large degree, but there was a sense of discounting, for lack of a better word. There was a downplaying because those people have it. This is a shoe on the other foot thing, but thankfully, we can, on average, be better than that. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 23, 2021, 02:21:06 AM
These aren't the same things.

Hmm, getting the fat people to change their diet and sedentary lifestyles vs getting a shot.

One is quick and easy and the other would take time and is basically a fiction.

There's a reason Bill Gates doesn't hide the nanobots in celery and stairmasters, friends.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 23, 2021, 06:44:33 AM
Quote from: utee94 on December 23, 2021, 12:12:14 AM
We don't deny treatment to smokers and the morbidly obese and helmetless motorcycle riders.  Why would we deny treatment for this?

The response that "they're endangering others by allowing unchecked transmission" isn't good enough in 2022, over two years into this thing, and knowing how common breakthrough infections are becoming. 

From what I can tell, anyone seriously advocating the position of denying treatment to the unvaxed, is really just doing so for punitive reasons.  And that's not a conversation I'm going to bother having with anyone.


Well stated.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 23, 2021, 07:38:11 AM
Quote from: ELA on December 22, 2021, 10:44:40 PM
Interesting thoughts on boosters from the WHO

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/12/22/who-says-covid-vaccine-booster-programs-will-prolong-pandemic.html
That organization lost me with this:


(https://i.imgur.com/c5o9yKu.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 23, 2021, 08:04:21 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 22, 2021, 10:14:40 PM
now if we can just get our President to read it
You mean his handlers?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 23, 2021, 08:08:04 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 22, 2021, 07:16:23 PM
Okay... So I guess your point is...

"Some people are doing some things and some people are doing other things but I'm gonna focus on the ones doing the things I don't like and yell at them."
Lock the Thread,if it was still an honorable way of life I'd tell you to run for Office.Because it most certaily is profitable
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 23, 2021, 08:11:33 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 23, 2021, 07:38:11 AM
That organization lost me with this:
Unfortunately with their new found windfall the chinese are paying big for favors.See Biden's bastard child
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on December 23, 2021, 09:46:20 AM
Quote from: utee94 on December 23, 2021, 12:12:14 AM
We don't deny treatment to smokers and the morbidly obese and helmetless motorcycle riders.  Why would we deny treatment for this?

The response that "they're endangering others by allowing unchecked transmission" isn't good enough in 2022, over two years into this thing, and knowing how common breakthrough infections are becoming. 

From what I can tell, anyone seriously advocating the position of denying treatment to the unvaxed, is really just doing so for punitive reasons.  And that's not a conversation I'm going to bother having with anyone.


Once again, I'm not saying to outright deny them coverage. But if there are finite resources, and we are denying treatment to others, who have taken the advice of the doctors, then I'm going to give them treatment, over people who ignored the advice of their doctors, the same doctors they now want to treat them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 23, 2021, 10:34:19 AM
Latest Hospital Capacity In Fort Myers Area (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/latest-hospital-capacity-in-fort-myers-area/ar-AAS4oPY?ocid=msedgntp)



Nationally, about 77 percent of inpatient beds were occupied as of Dec. 22, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. About one out of every 10 beds are occupied by a COVID-19 patient.

State health officials in Florida reported (https://healthdata.gov/dataset/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/6xf2-c3ie) to the federal government Dec. 22 that approximately 78 percent of inpatient beds and 73 percent of intensive care unit beds in hospitals across the state were occupied. Around 4 percent of inpatient beds and 5 percent of ICU beds statewide were filled by COVID-19 patients, they reported.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 23, 2021, 10:43:06 AM
Quote from: ELA on December 23, 2021, 09:46:20 AM
Once again, I'm not saying to outright deny them coverage. But if there are finite resources, and we are denying treatment to others, who have taken the advice of the doctors, then I'm going to give them treatment, over people who ignored the advice of their doctors, the same doctors they now want to treat them
Again you are painting with a wide brush,what about those have reactions?Deadly Reactions?What about the vaxed parading around not taking any precautions?If you still have relatives in Michigan and would like to stop by from your home in PA.(as it's on the way) I will introduce you to some one whose cousin died the day the shot was administered.There is a lot of gray area and the untruthful postions and views being pushed by so many is irksome.I trust science but not that pushed by certain circles when some experiences conflict with white washed cherry picked narratives

Thank You BF - you get a Yuengling
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 23, 2021, 10:47:49 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 23, 2021, 10:34:19 AM
Latest Hospital Capacity In Fort Myers Area (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/latest-hospital-capacity-in-fort-myers-area/ar-AAS4oPY?ocid=msedgntp)



Nationally, about 77 percent of inpatient beds were occupied as of Dec. 22, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. About one out of every 10 beds are occupied by a COVID-19 patient.
and before COVID became a thing......... what percentage of beds were occupied in December?  76%?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 23, 2021, 10:53:01 AM
Probably. Because Covid WAS a thing in December 2019. We just didn't know it.

Probably got here in September 2019.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 23, 2021, 11:00:44 AM
I agree BF Cindy's very best friend was horribly ill by late September '19 and her husband cancelled a Birthday Bash.Was hospitalized for 3 weeks and said she never felt that bad in her life.Both her husband and her lost revenue during the lockdown and ended up with 125,000.00 in Medical Bills.They got the debt forgiven somehow as they were paying house/vehicle and other expenses out of pocket for like a year.Shit they had good incomes too and I'm still paying down bills pre-covid,gotta love the system
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 23, 2021, 11:11:21 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 23, 2021, 10:53:01 AM
Probably. Because Covid WAS a thing in December 2019. We just didn't know it.

Probably got here in September 2019.
Yes- As I have said here before I believe I had it in September 2019.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 23, 2021, 11:23:21 AM
Quote from: ELA on December 22, 2021, 10:44:40 PM
Interesting thoughts on boosters from the WHO

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/12/22/who-says-covid-vaccine-booster-programs-will-prolong-pandemic.html
I don't like the way the editor wrote the headline, because it really has little to do with the boosters. The "problem" isn't boosters. The problem is that poor countries aren't able to source vaccine. The problems are related because rich countries are focusing on boosters which sucks up some of the supply that could be going to poor countries, but the way the headline is written it's made to sound like boosters are bad. 

Quote from: bayareabadger on December 23, 2021, 12:27:17 AM
This is true.

There's sort of an irony that not long ago, there was a good bit of ... I'll call it punitive attitude when it came to the topic of the obese and overweight and this particular illness. It was overstated to a large degree, but there was a sense of discounting, for lack of a better word. There was a downplaying because those people have it. This is a shoe on the other foot thing, but thankfully, we can, on average, be better than that.
You know what is the source of all the problems in the world?

Other people. 

Because it couldn't possibly be us. It's always other people. We've always been at war with the obese the unvaccinated East-Asia. Now let's all gather for our Two Minutes Hate. 

In-group and out-group. It's human nature. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 23, 2021, 11:28:06 AM
Quote from: ELA on December 23, 2021, 09:46:20 AM
Once again, I'm not saying to outright deny them coverage. But if there are finite resources, and we are denying treatment to others, who have taken the advice of the doctors, then I'm going to give them treatment, over people who ignored the advice of their doctors, the same doctors they now want to treat them
If you're arguing from a resource allocation perspective, then the subsequent comments in this thread tell the story-- COVID is not using so many resources that we should deny treatment to anyone based on vaccination status.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on December 23, 2021, 11:51:58 AM
Quote from: utee94 on December 23, 2021, 11:28:06 AM
If you're arguing from a resource allocation perspective, then the subsequent comments in this thread tell the story-- COVID is not using so many resources that we should deny treatment to anyone based on vaccination status.
It varies greatly from place to place.  Clearly it is in upstate NY.  And it is in Pennsylvania as well.  In Florida, it is not.  If it's not an issue locally, then it's not an issue, and I'm not speaking to that area
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on December 23, 2021, 11:55:30 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 22, 2021, 08:34:34 PM
Being from a state where the governor is implementing various shutdown policies I would have thought you would take this much more seriously then you are

why dont you see the seriousness of his actions

you can pick on my choice of words all you want but when your freedom is being taken away I would have thought you would have a much more concerned reaction

and since you are saying my concerns are BS I dont see any need for further discussion

good luck and keep wearing that mask
Hi friend.

Upthread, you (I believe) called for a vigorous use of a BS detector, spoke highly of your own. But if having a BS detector directed your way leads to such a sharp response, I'm wondering if such a tool should perhaps be used with more delicacy by all.

As for the rest, I do not live there at the moment (the state is too popular, and I am too frugal). I have friends and family there, I've yet to speak to one who is angry about all of that, but that may speak to their life stations. 

I don't agree with all his policies. But I don't agree with many government policies, and understand I live in a society where that happens. (Not living there, I'm also not deeply versed in the specifics of the policies that have you offended)

The talk of freedom is interesting. We live in a society where this curtailing is held as the last straw, and in other arenas, the drastic limiting of rights and freedom is cheers and begged for, often by the same people. I speak of that on a personal level. I have more complex feeling about schools and the trickle down with businesses. 

And the masks, I've said before, is what it is for me. An annoyance and not much else. Again, that's me. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 23, 2021, 04:40:29 PM
Quote from: ELA on December 23, 2021, 11:51:58 AM
It varies greatly from place to place.  Clearly it is in upstate NY.  And it is in Pennsylvania as well.  In Florida, it is not.  If it's not an issue locally, then it's not an issue, and I'm not speaking to that area
Then I'd expect you to argue against allowing smokers, obese, and motorcycle riders into the ER in those areas as well.  All are classes of people that "should know better" and cause inordinately high usage of emergency facilities.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 23, 2021, 04:57:02 PM
I just hope we dont over react with omicron taking over

cases will go way up

but the omicron hospitalizations and death count will go way down

much of the problem the Northern states are having is from remaining delta cases which should decrease in the next few weeks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on December 23, 2021, 07:15:42 PM
Quote from: utee94 on December 23, 2021, 04:40:29 PM
Then I'd expect you to argue against allowing smokers, obese, and motorcycle riders into the ER in those areas as well.  All are classes of people that "should know better" and cause inordinately high usage of emergency facilities.
If we had a pandemic of motorcycle crashes filling up the ICUs, and 88% of the ones hospitalized weren't wearing helmets, then yeah, they would only get a bed if one wasn't needed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 23, 2021, 07:17:06 PM
hey, don't be discriminating against helmetless motor cycle riders 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 23, 2021, 07:17:24 PM
Helmet Laws SUCK!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on December 23, 2021, 07:18:37 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 23, 2021, 04:57:02 PM
I just hope we dont over react with omicron taking over

cases will go way up

but the omicron hospitalizations and death count will go way down

much of the problem the Northern states are having is from remaining delta cases which should decrease in the next few weeks
Seems like we aren't. Not even a whisper of shutdowns here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 23, 2021, 07:28:39 PM
Quote from: ELA on December 23, 2021, 07:15:42 PM
If we had a pandemic of motorcycle crashes filling up the ICUs, and 88% of the ones hospitalized weren't wearing helmets, then yeah, they would only get a bed if one wasn't needed
Heh, you avoided smokers I see.

All of them are unfairly over-utilizing scarce resources.  If you're truly only concerned with resource utilization, and you have a problem with one class doing so, then I'd expect you to have a problem with all classes doing so.

If you only choose to single out one class, then it's something other than a resource-driven discussion.

Another and less charitable way to look at it, is, if we didn't already have a baseline of dumbass smokers and fatties clogging up the ICUs with their host of various, unnecessary, and completely self-inflicted maladies, then those resources would be more ready to accept people fighting to survive in the midst of a global pandemic.

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 23, 2021, 07:30:23 PM
Quote from: ELA on December 23, 2021, 07:18:37 PM
Seems like we aren't. Not even a whisper of shutdowns here.

I expect regions that have been quick to shut-down before, to continue that behavior.  And I expect regions that have remained open before, to continue that behavior as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 23, 2021, 07:40:06 PM
The fact that our system puts the imaginary borders as obstacles to EVERYONE being vaccinated is embarrassingly stupid.  Viruses don't understand political maps, only physical ones.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on December 23, 2021, 07:40:12 PM
Quote from: utee94 on December 23, 2021, 07:28:39 PM
Heh, you avoided smokers I see.

All of them are unfairly over-utilizing scarce resources.  If you're truly only concerned with resource utilization, and you have a problem with one class doing so, then I'd expect you to have a problem with all classes doing so.

If you only choose to single out one class, then it's something other than a resource-driven discussion.

Another and less charitable way to look at it, is, if we didn't already have a baseline of dumbass smokers and fatties clogging up the ICUs with their various unnecessary and completely self-inflicted maladies, then those resources would be more ready to accept people fighting to survive in the midst of a global pandemic.
Yes, if we had a lung disease pandemic filling the ICUs, and 88% of them were smokers, and there weren't enough beds, I'd kick them out too.

This is one specific global event, and ideally a relatively short one.  I am more than happy to discuss the drain that smokers and drinkers and the obese have on our health care system, and our insurance costs, at large, but that isn't what this is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 23, 2021, 07:44:53 PM
Quote from: ELA on December 23, 2021, 07:40:12 PM
Yes, if we had a lung disease pandemic filling the ICUs, and 88% of them were smokers, and there weren't enough beds, I'd kick them out too.

This is one specific global event, and ideally a relatively short one.  I am more than happy to discuss the drain that smokers and drinkers and the obese have on our health care system, and our insurance costs, at large, but that isn't what this is.
Of course that's what this is.  Throughout the pandemic and even on the previous couple of pages, we've seen fear-porn from the mediots that ICUs are 90% full, when only 10-15% of those beds have been dedicated to COVID patients.  Where the heck do you think all those other sick people are coming from?  Pianos being dropped on their heads?

There is a baseline of sick people that fill up our ICU, and in large part their illnesses are related to smoking, obesity, and all sorts of other self-inflicted problems.

They are all exactly the same and finding fault with one class while dismissing the fault of the other classes, is nonsensical.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on December 23, 2021, 07:46:39 PM
Currently in Pennsylvania, 45% of ICU beds are COVID patients, 88% unvaccinated
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 23, 2021, 07:47:31 PM
Quote from: ELA on December 23, 2021, 07:46:39 PM
Currently in Pennsylvania, 45% of ICU beds are COVID patients, 88% unvaccinated
Cool.  What's the total ICU capacity utilization?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on December 23, 2021, 08:05:30 PM
Quote from: utee94 on December 23, 2021, 07:47:31 PM
Cool.  What's the total ICU capacity utilization? 
I'm sure it varies hospital to hospital.  I'm sure some it's not an issue, and in others it is
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on December 23, 2021, 08:11:48 PM
The UMPC system currently reports ICU beds at 95% utilization, with 44.7% being COVID
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 23, 2021, 08:20:22 PM
Quote from: ELA on December 23, 2021, 08:11:48 PM
The UMPC system currently reports ICU beds at 95% utilization, with 44.7% being COVID
So 40% are not COVID.  That's a pretty high percentage.  Eliminate that baseline and you've got a lot more capacity to handle the global pandemic.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on December 23, 2021, 08:23:58 PM
I don't disagree, but with unvaccinated accounting for 88% of hospitalizations,  You are essentially saying they are accounting for every other reason for admission combined
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 23, 2021, 08:29:40 PM
Quote from: ELA on December 23, 2021, 08:23:58 PM
I don't disagree, but with unvaccinated accounting for 88% of hospitalizations,  You are essentially saying they are accounting for every other reason for admission combined
Nah, I hear you, I really do.  I too am all in favor of vaxing and in disbelief at the people that come up with their various excuses not do to so, in the face of the science, which I believe is sound.

I just don't think it's a step we can take as a society, to start refusing treatment to one class.  That introduces discretion and a potential for prejudice that frightens me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 23, 2021, 08:47:50 PM
That we are still having this conversation is a bit surprising. 

The elephant in the room is either:
-narrative “a”, that unvaccinated pose
A threat to the vaccinated (this is the prevalent narrative among MSM)
Or
- they don’t. 

If “a” is true, doesn’t that mean the vaccine is not effective?

If it is a false narrative- then why do we keep hearing things like we did today from the Director of CDC, Fauci, that you should avoid inviting the unvaccinated friends and family into your home during the Holidays?
And, even if you’re fully vaccinated with a booster, like I am, you should avoid large gatherings?

I mean I plan on going to the Orange bowl. Why should I worry about the unvaccinated who are there? And if I should what is the value of my vaccination?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 23, 2021, 09:14:24 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 23, 2021, 07:17:24 PM
Helmet Laws SUCK!!!
Helmet laws suck.

Wear a goddamn helmet.

Vaccine mandates suck.

Get the goddamn jab. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 23, 2021, 09:16:40 PM
I wore a helmet, didn't like it

I wear a seat belt, don't like it

I got the jab, didn't mind it.  Makes more sense to me than the other two
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on December 23, 2021, 09:17:47 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 23, 2021, 09:14:24 PM
Helmet laws suck.

Wear a goddamn helmet.

Vaccine mandates suck.

Get the goddamn jab.
There are many things you can point to as proof that the human is not smart. But my personal favorite would have to be that we needed to invent the helmet. What was happening, apparently, was that we were involved in a lot of activities that were cracking our heads. We chose not to avoid doing those activities but, instead, to come up with some sort of device to help us enjoy our head-cracking lifestyles. And even that didn’t work because not enough people were wearing them so we had to come up with the helmet law. Which is even stupider, the idea behind the helmet law being to preserve a brain whose judgment is so poor, it does not even try to avoid the cracking of the head it’s in.

-Jerry Seinfeld
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 23, 2021, 09:20:10 PM
Well some coattails relatives are having christmas eve gathering 7 of the 19 will not be attending that have covid.All vaxed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 23, 2021, 09:20:26 PM
I've heard that helmets are now mandatory on ski slopes
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 23, 2021, 09:23:42 PM
Y'all are complaining about demand side problems with ICU bed availability.

What about artificial supply side restrictions? It's called Certificate of Need restrictions. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 23, 2021, 09:24:59 PM
Testify Bwarb Testify
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 23, 2021, 09:26:44 PM
Quote from: ELA on December 23, 2021, 09:17:47 PM
There are many things you can point to as proof that the human is not smart. But my personal favorite would have to be that we needed to invent the helmet. What was happening, apparently, was that we were involved in a lot of activities that were cracking our heads. We chose not to avoid doing those activities but, instead, to come up with some sort of device to help us enjoy our head-cracking lifestyles. And even that didn’t work because not enough people were wearing them so we had to come up with the helmet law. Which is even stupider, the idea behind the helmet law being to preserve a brain whose judgment is so poor, it does not even try to avoid the cracking of the head it’s in.

-Jerry Seinfeld
😂😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 24, 2021, 01:21:00 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on December 23, 2021, 08:47:50 PM


I mean I plan on going to the Orange bowl. Why should I worry about the unvaccinated who are there? And if I should what is the value of my vaccination?

This is where I'm at with it.
I got the 2 shots.
I got the booster.
I'm 41 years old and have taken like 2 sick days off work in my life.
.
If all of that doesn't allow me to go out into the world, then what's the point?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on December 24, 2021, 09:10:41 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 24, 2021, 01:21:00 AM
This is where I'm at with it.
I got the 2 shots.
I got the booster.
I'm 41 years old and have taken like 2 sick days off work in my life.
.
If all of that doesn't allow me to go out into the world, then what's the point?
Agreed.  I think we need to reconsider the protocols that are shutting down these sporting events as well
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 24, 2021, 09:30:32 AM
I'm comfortable with requirements evolving as we learn more about this disease.  As often noted here, the issues are largely with the elderly (and comors.)

I understand the public health desire to limit case numbers, but at this point, it's out, and evolving itself.

I just took two longish flights using crowded airports, I'm sure I was exposed to someone with COVID, probably several times.

LAX was packed, ATL when we arrived was not really that full like I saw when we left.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 24, 2021, 09:51:09 AM
Despite the Newsom statewide indoor mask mandate, it's absolutely not being followed here in Orange County. 



I talked in the other thread about myths... "Law" is one of those. The truth of life is that the people make the law and the legislature just writes it down. Any law that enough people disagree with just becomes ignored, absent draconian enforcement. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 24, 2021, 10:11:36 AM
Here is South Africa Covid stats

You will note new cases appears to have spiked and new deaths is very low

I think this is what will happen here

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 24, 2021, 10:14:27 AM
Great Britain

same story

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 24, 2021, 10:18:36 AM
Quote from: ELA on December 24, 2021, 09:10:41 AM
Agreed.  I think we need to reconsider the protocols that are shutting down these sporting events as well
agreed, doesn't seem to be shutting down much of anything besides sporting events
shopping, bars, churches will be near capacity this afternoon and evening
the Hawaii bowl would be decent entertainment
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on December 24, 2021, 10:29:36 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 24, 2021, 10:18:36 AM
agreed, doesn't seem to be shutting down much of anything besides sporting events
shopping, bars, churches will be near capacity this afternoon and evening
the Hawaii bowl would be decent entertainment
I got doing it last year, when we didn't have fans, or a vaccine, that we were testing the athletes and coaches, because they were the only people in the building, and that's the only source of transmission. Yet now we are continuing to test asymptomatic players,  who are vaccinated well above the national average, while still having stadiums full of people in close proximity, stadium employees, and so on, who arent testing.   The Hawaii Bowl could have had a full stadium of unvaccinated COVID positive fans, and they would have played the game, never the wiser
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 24, 2021, 10:32:47 AM
same amount of common sense as a year ago
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 24, 2021, 04:11:37 PM
more omicron stuff

https://www.dailywire.com/news/majority-of-people-who-contract-omicron-may-never-show-symptoms-researchers
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 24, 2021, 04:23:31 PM
More evidence is that omicron is more contagious and less serious, which really could be excellent news longer term.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 24, 2021, 07:02:32 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 24, 2021, 01:21:00 AM
This is where I'm at with it.
I got the 2 shots.
I got the booster.
I'm 41 years old and have taken like 2 sick days off work in my life.
.
If all of that doesn't allow me to go out into the world, then what's the point?
i think most rational folks have landed in the same spot.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on December 26, 2021, 08:32:47 AM
A friend is in the hospital with it right now. Got me highly worried over it. 

Getting dribs and drabs of info about his experience, I think we probably understated how much is sucks to be hospitalized. Just seems depressing and miserable. 

And while I know the weight thing was overplayed in the whole process of this thing, my friend is still a bigger guy, and lung issues put pressure on the vascular system, which is strained more by being bigger. 

Still, crossing my fingers and slightly fretting. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 26, 2021, 09:55:55 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on December 26, 2021, 08:32:47 AM
A friend is in the hospital with it right now. Got me highly worried over it.

Getting dribs and drabs of info about his experience, I think we probably understated how much is sucks to be hospitalized. Just seems depressing and miserable.

And while I know the weight thing was overplayed in the whole process of this thing, my friend is still a bigger guy, and lung issues put pressure on the vascular system, which is strained more by being bigger.

Still, crossing my fingers and slightly fretting.
Fingers crossed for your friend. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 26, 2021, 11:03:14 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on December 26, 2021, 08:32:47 AM
A friend is in the hospital with it right now. Got me highly worried over it.

Getting dribs and drabs of info about his experience, I think we probably understated how much is sucks to be hospitalized. Just seems depressing and miserable.

And while I know the weight thing was overplayed in the whole process of this thing, my friend is still a bigger guy, and lung issues put pressure on the vascular system, which is strained more by being bigger.

Still, crossing my fingers and slightly fretting.
Do you know whether its omicron or delta?

Hope hes gonna be ok
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on December 26, 2021, 02:47:03 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 26, 2021, 11:03:14 AM
Do you know whether its omicron or delta?

Hope hes gonna be ok
Not sure. He got symptoms, tested negative, then tested again and tested positive. It was very strange, and unfortunate because if the first test had been positive, they could have gotten a jump on the treatment and it would’ve helped.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 27, 2021, 05:42:22 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/spPZQ7W.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/EgPPjx6.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 27, 2021, 05:43:56 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on December 26, 2021, 02:47:03 PM
Not sure. He got symptoms, tested negative, then tested again and tested positive. It was very strange, and unfortunate because if the first test had been positive, they could have gotten a jump on the treatment and it would’ve helped.
How's it going?

Is he vaccinated?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on December 28, 2021, 07:20:53 AM
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/covid-coronavirus-vaccines-review-pandemic-2021

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 28, 2021, 07:59:51 AM
All things considered, I don't see how things could have been done differently.

Try to protect the vulnerable and try to go about life and business. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 28, 2021, 10:18:07 AM
there sure has been plenty of wailing and nashing of teeth because folks wanted things done differently

Of course if you lost a loved one or a business you have a much different perspective
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on December 28, 2021, 12:33:02 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 27, 2021, 05:43:56 PM
How's it going?

Is he vaccinated?
Things are looking better, but still slow moving. (Hearing updates reminds me how generally unpleasant extended time in the hospital is)

He is. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 29, 2021, 08:33:50 PM
Just finally got my booster.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 29, 2021, 08:57:11 PM
need to get mine

since it was the flu
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on December 30, 2021, 12:29:48 PM
Well I’m fairly certain I’ve got omicron. Either that or a sinus infection, which I have been prone to getting. 

Slight fever, chills, coughing, headache and body aches. Yes, I’m vaccinated. No, I haven’t had a booster. 2nd vax dose was May 2021. 

This one is really mild compared to the first time I had COVID in Dec 2020. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 30, 2021, 02:46:37 PM
Quote from: Gigem on December 30, 2021, 12:29:48 PM
Well I’m fairly certain I’ve got omicron. Either that or a sinus infection, which I have been prone to getting.

Slight fever, chills, coughing, headache and body aches. Yes, I’m vaccinated. No, I haven’t had a booster. 2nd vax dose was May 2021.

This one is really mild compared to the first time I had COVID in Dec 2020.
If you have had covid and two vac shots Id be really surprised if you got omicron

but stranger things have happened
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 30, 2021, 02:52:53 PM
Quote from: Gigem on December 30, 2021, 12:29:48 PM
Well I’m fairly certain I’ve got omicron. Either that or a sinus infection, which I have been prone to getting.

Slight fever, chills, coughing, headache and body aches. Yes, I’m vaccinated. No, I haven’t had a booster. 2nd vax dose was May 2021.

This one is really mild compared to the first time I had COVID in Dec 2020.
smell & taste?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 30, 2021, 02:55:29 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 30, 2021, 02:46:37 PM
If you have had covid and two vac shots Id be really surprised if you got omicron

but stranger things have happened
Not really. Especially with her last shot being May. Omicron is really contagious.

Quote from: FearlessF on December 30, 2021, 02:52:53 PM
smell & taste?

Not a common symptom of Omicron. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 30, 2021, 03:00:30 PM
good to know
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 30, 2021, 04:35:15 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday issued an advisory urging all travelers — vaccinated and unvaccinated — to avoid cruise ship travel amid a record-breaking Covid surge driven by the omicron variant in many states across the United States.

"Even fully vaccinated travelers may be at risk for getting and spreading COVID-19 variants," the CDC said in a midday bulletin.

The CDC said the coronavirus "spreads easily between people in close quarters on board ships, and the chance of getting COVID-19 on cruise ships is very high."

It said the travel health notice upgrade from level 3 to level 4 "reflects increases in cases onboard cruise ships since identification of the omicron variant."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on December 30, 2021, 08:37:56 PM
Never los smell and taste the first time either. 

Feel much better now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 31, 2021, 10:33:41 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 30, 2021, 04:35:15 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday issued an advisory urging all travelers — vaccinated and unvaccinated — to avoid cruise ship travel amid a record-breaking Covid surge driven by the omicron variant in many states across the United States.

"Even fully vaccinated travelers may be at risk for getting and spreading COVID-19 variants," the CDC said in a midday bulletin.

The CDC said the coronavirus "spreads easily between people in close quarters on board ships, and the chance of getting COVID-19 on cruise ships is very high."

It said the travel health notice upgrade from level 3 to level 4 "reflects increases in cases onboard cruise ships since identification of the omicron variant."

F 'em.


We're booked for a cruise in April - our 25th anniversary. That will not be cancelled.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 31, 2021, 10:34:15 AM
Quote from: Gigem on December 30, 2021, 08:37:56 PM
Never los smell and taste the first time either.

Feel much better now.
Much better in 8 hours? That's great!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 31, 2021, 10:37:30 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 31, 2021, 10:33:41 AM
F 'em.


We're booked for a cruise in April - our 25th anniversary. That will not be cancelled.
just wear your mask ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 31, 2021, 10:39:50 AM
Apparently night sweats are now being listed as an Omicron symptom.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on December 31, 2021, 10:48:15 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 31, 2021, 10:39:50 AM
Apparently night sweats are now being listed as an Omicron symptom.
Also a symptom of be grabbing the heavy blanket by mistake and not opening a window. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 31, 2021, 10:53:36 AM
or over eating a dry aged ribeye and gulping too much wine with a late meal
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 31, 2021, 10:58:07 AM
Who the hell does that?Eat a dagwood over the sink proper - no symptoms
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 31, 2021, 11:00:39 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 31, 2021, 10:39:50 AM
Apparently night sweats are now being listed as an Omicron symptom.
Serves 'em right for betting on the late games
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 31, 2021, 12:13:28 PM
This is amazing, if accurate.

(https://i.imgur.com/VlX8kTL.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 31, 2021, 12:36:36 PM
Yeah, I just looked at the national numbers on Worldometers. Yesterday was the highest daily case total of the entire pandemic.

Omicron is just ripping through the population.

This will IMHO lead to some spikes in hospitalizations and deaths, just based on sheer numbers, and mostly unvaccinated IMHO.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on December 31, 2021, 01:29:39 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 31, 2021, 12:13:28 PM
This is amazing, if accurate.

[img width=234.333 height=372]https://i.imgur.com/VlX8kTL.png[/img]
Fecal transfer of viral material has been a property of COVID since the start. One of my former professors was doing a lot of work with sampling MSP wastewater for COVID material and linking it with case loads.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 31, 2021, 02:54:41 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 31, 2021, 12:36:36 PM
Yeah, I just looked at the national numbers on Worldometers. Yesterday was the highest daily case total of the entire pandemic.

Omicron is just ripping through the population.

This will IMHO lead to some spikes in hospitalizations and deaths, just based on sheer numbers, and mostly unvaccinated IMHO.
I dont agree on the deaths.  We will see lower deaths then delta.

and the normal length of an omicron hospital stay is less then half delta so that will help

I just hope we dont over react like NYC
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 31, 2021, 03:06:43 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 31, 2021, 02:54:41 PM
I dont agree on the deaths.  We will see lower deaths then delta.

and the normal length of an omicron hospital stay is less then half delta so that will help

I just hope we dont over react like NYC
We'll see lower deaths as a percentage of infections than Delta, on that I 100% agree. 

But the Delta case numbers maxed out at <200K per day nationally. Yesterday we had national numbers of 572K infections, and we're still in the very early stage of this spike.

Now, will we see the same number of deaths per day as Delta? I'm not sure. The number MAY be lower than Delta due to the apparent much lower mortality of Omicron. The number MAY be higher if case numbers shoot even further skyward. 

But either I still think we're going to see death numbers jump from where they are today, just because of sheer numbers of infections. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 31, 2021, 03:19:30 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 31, 2021, 03:06:43 PM
We'll see lower deaths as a percentage of infections than Delta, on that I 100% agree.

But the Delta case numbers maxed out at <200K per day nationally. Yesterday we had national numbers of 572K infections, and we're still in the very early stage of this spike.

Now, will we see the same number of deaths per day as Delta? I'm not sure. The number MAY be lower than Delta due to the apparent much lower mortality of Omicron. The number MAY be higher if case numbers shoot even further skyward.

But either I still think we're going to see death numbers jump from where they are today, just because of sheer numbers of infections.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
again I dont agree

I think we will see deaths actually decrease from the present number

just like whats happening in the UK and South Africa
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 31, 2021, 03:29:12 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 31, 2021, 03:19:30 PM
again I dont agree

I think we will see deaths actually decrease from the present number

just like whats happening in the UK and South Africa
If you look at South Africa, there are a number of very different circumstances...


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/

Literally everything I see suggests that Omicron will be much more mild for us than Delta. But yesterday's new case rate being 3x what we were logging during Delta makes me concerned that a lower percentage multiplied by a higher rate will still be rough. 

That said, I'm living my life. I'm now triple-jabbed and not really worried about it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 31, 2021, 03:33:25 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 31, 2021, 03:29:12 PM
If you look at South Africa, there are a number of very different circumstances...

  • South Africa's Delta spike had already worked its way through and cleared, and this was reflected in deaths. Their baseline is lower.
  • South Africa had MUCH lower vaccination rates than the US.
  • South Africa's Omicron spike started about 3 1/2 weeks ago, and they are just now showing an uptrend in deaths. Given there's typically a 3 week lag between cases and deaths, that makes sense.
  • South Africa's Omicron spike, as reflected in cases/day, was roughly similar to their Delta spike. Whereas in the US it's now MUCH higher in cases/day. This could be due to more testing in the US; I'm not sure.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/

Literally everything I see suggests that Omicron will be much more mild for us than Delta. But yesterday's new case rate being 3x what we were logging during Delta makes me concerned that a lower percentage multiplied by a higher rate will still be rough.

That said, I'm living my life. I'm now triple-jabbed and not really worried about it.

omicron is a good thing

everyone should vaccinate because it makes omicron even milder if caught

also look at the UK stats
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 31, 2021, 03:37:15 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on December 31, 2021, 03:33:25 PM
omicron is a good thing

everyone should vaccinate because it makes omicron even milder if caught

also look at the UK stats
UK is a better comparison because like the US, they've had a constant case rate and pretty constant death rate for a couple months after the primary Delta spike. 

That said, the UK is only ~2 weeks removed from the start of their Omicron spike. And just recorded on Dec 30 a higher per-day death total than any previous time during the Delta wave. 

(Note: this is likely a combination of lagging Delta and new Omicron infections--but that's would likely also be true of the US as our Delta deaths haven't been dropping that quickly either.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on December 31, 2021, 04:04:45 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 31, 2021, 03:37:15 PM
UK is a better comparison because like the US, they've had a constant case rate and pretty constant death rate for a couple months after the primary Delta spike.

That said, the UK is only ~2 weeks removed from the start of their Omicron spike. And just recorded on Dec 30 a higher per-day death total than any previous time during the Delta wave.

(Note: this is likely a combination of lagging Delta and new Omicron infections--but that's would likely also be true of the US as our Delta deaths haven't been dropping that quickly either.)
I agree 

we should see a large decrease is deaths after the remaining delta cases go away

this will take 2 to 3 weeks

during this time however I dont think we will see much of an increase in deaths
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 31, 2021, 04:10:11 PM
I hope you're right.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 31, 2021, 04:26:03 PM
Anyone who is unvaccinated and dies from omicron earned it.  Sorry/not sorry.  

Darwin award.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 31, 2021, 06:52:54 PM
Omicron could have an R0 as high as 10...

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00559-2/fulltext
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 01, 2022, 09:19:04 AM
I think at this point, we should just all realize that we are ALL going to get this thing, and be done with it.

(https://i.imgur.com/9eMyNhp.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/1WDSZhg.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on January 01, 2022, 10:14:25 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 31, 2021, 10:34:15 AM
Much better in 8 hours? That's great!!
Well I’m doing a lot better today. Yesterday I even went and did a little work. If it was omicron/ COVID it was very mild, but it’s probable it was just a sinus infection. Nobody else in my house/vicinity got sick either, but they didn’t get sick the last time I had COVID either. 

Still have a stuffy nose/congestion but otherwise I’m fine. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 01, 2022, 01:14:59 PM
Quote from: Gigem on January 01, 2022, 10:14:25 AM
Well I’m doing a lot better today. Yesterday I even went and did a little work. If it was omicron/ COVID it was very mild, but it’s probable it was just a sinus infection. Nobody else in my house/vicinity got sick either, but they didn’t get sick the last time I had COVID either.

Still have a stuffy nose/congestion but otherwise I’m fine.
Glad to hear it

Hang in there everything is fixing to get a lot better
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 02, 2022, 12:40:36 PM
more omicron info

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYLbJ0H8zdc
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on January 02, 2022, 02:31:38 PM
Got exposed twice this past week. Negative rapid test, fingers crossed for the PCR.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on January 03, 2022, 12:28:38 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 01, 2022, 09:19:04 AM
I think at this point, we should just all realize that we are ALL going to get this thing, and be done with it.
I have had it twice. Many of us will get it, but we won't be done with it, even if we have had it, and even if we were vaccinated. That said you risk death without being vaccinated. I would like to think we as a society could defeat this like small pox, measles, and polio. I don't think the vaccine technology has quite reached that point, and society as a whole does not accept science in the same way it did in the 1950s and 60s.
Sadly I don't think victory over the virus is in the cards for at least 10-years. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on January 03, 2022, 12:30:33 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on January 02, 2022, 02:31:38 PM
Got exposed twice this past week. Negative rapid test, fingers crossed for the PCR.
You know what I know which is that the Rapid Test is not entirely accurate. I tested negative to the rapid test, and positive to the PCR test. It just took a few more days to get my positive result.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 03, 2022, 10:22:07 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on January 03, 2022, 12:28:38 AM
I have had it twice. Many of us will get it, but we won't be done with it, even if we have had it, and even if we were vaccinated. That said you risk death without being vaccinated. I would like to think we as a society could defeat this like small pox, measles, and polio. I don't think the vaccine technology has quite reached that point, and society as a whole does not accept science in the same way it did in the 1950s and 60s.
Sadly I don't think victory over the virus is in the cards for at least 10-years.
we will be done with Delta in the next 10 weeks so for your prediction to be true there has to be another variant

popping up which could happen but right now has not
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 04, 2022, 10:34:51 PM
The explosive increase in U.S. coronavirus case counts is raising alarm, but some experts believe the focus should instead be on COVID-19 hospital admissions. And those aren’t climbing as fast.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, for one, said Sunday on ABC that with many infections causing few or no symptoms, “it is much more relevant to focus on the hospitalizations as opposed to the total number of cases.” Other experts argue that case counts still have value.

As the super-contagious omicron variant rages across the U.S., new COVID-19 cases per day have more than tripled over the past two weeks, reaching a record-shattering average of 480,000. Schools, hospitals and airlines are struggling as infected workers go into isolation.

Meanwhile, hospital admissions averaged 14,800 per day last week, up 63% from the week before, but still short of the peak of 16,500 per day a year ago, when the vast majority of the U.S. was unvaccinated. Deaths have been stable over the past two weeks at an average of about 1,200 per day, well below the all-time high of 3,400 last January.


https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-science-health-anthony-fauci-9444d63b650b98e235ed2595b0ebe844 (https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-science-health-anthony-fauci-9444d63b650b98e235ed2595b0ebe844)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 04, 2022, 10:46:50 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 04, 2022, 10:34:51 PM
The explosive increase in U.S. coronavirus case counts is raising alarm, but some experts believe the focus should instead be on COVID-19 hospital admissions. And those aren’t climbing as fast.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, for one, said Sunday on ABC that with many infections causing few or no symptoms, “it is much more relevant to focus on the hospitalizations as opposed to the total number of cases.” Other experts argue that case counts still have value.

As the super-contagious omicron variant rages across the U.S., new COVID-19 cases per day have more than tripled over the past two weeks, reaching a record-shattering average of 480,000. Schools, hospitals and airlines are struggling as infected workers go into isolation.

Meanwhile, hospital admissions averaged 14,800 per day last week, up 63% from the week before, but still short of the peak of 16,500 per day a year ago, when the vast majority of the U.S. was unvaccinated. Deaths have been stable over the past two weeks at an average of about 1,200 per day, well below the all-time high of 3,400 last January.


https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-science-health-anthony-fauci-9444d63b650b98e235ed2595b0ebe844 (https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-science-health-anthony-fauci-9444d63b650b98e235ed2595b0ebe844)

we have to get out of the habit of stressing case numbers
folks who dont go to a hospital are over it in 5 days

hospitalization and death count is whats important
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 04, 2022, 10:48:33 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 04, 2022, 10:46:50 PM
and no mention of new covid deaths
we have to get out of the habit of stressing case numbers
folks who dont go to a hospital are over it in 5 days

hospitalization and death count is whats important
Ha.  They are still lying- and dividing with their message.  “ a pandemic of the unvaccinated “ 😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 04, 2022, 10:55:49 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 04, 2022, 10:46:50 PM
we have to get out of the habit of stressing case numbers
folks who dont go to a hospital are over it in 5 days

hospitalization and death count is whats important
folks here have been saying this for well over a year

maybe the message is finally getting out
you know, following the science!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 04, 2022, 11:24:53 PM
I hope deaths don't jump. 

Here in OC, hospitalizations and ICU has been increasing markedly. 

We're still too early in the Omicron wave for deaths to hit. But the local numbers on hospitalizations and ICU aren't encouraging.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 05, 2022, 05:26:11 AM
New variant in France. 46 mutations. 

WTF... This thing was designed brilliantly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Temp430 on January 05, 2022, 08:28:44 AM
Fuck the Chinese Communist Party.

And a Happy New Year to you all!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 06, 2022, 11:07:40 AM
Case numbers still skyrocketing. The US and the world have set new daily case records each of the past two days. 

US and world numbers don't show any uptick in deaths, but due to the 3-week lag, it's too early to see that sort of thing.

South Africa is the interesting one to watch, for a few reasons:



What we see from the data is that Omicron has shown a marked increase from their baseline death rates. Baseline prior to the Omicron spike they were showing maybe 20-25 deaths per day on the 7-day MA. This has now risen to 89, with the last two days being both >100, so it's a 3-4fold increase over baseline.

However, the daily death rates during Delta were in the 350-400 range for the 7-day MA, so unless something really powerful shows up in the South African data, there could very well be a 3-4x reduction in mortality between Omicron and Delta, and that brings Omicron down to the seasonal flu range...

Obviously, there are caveats. South Africa is a much poorer country than the US, and we know they have much lower vaccination coverage. However being much poorer may significantly affect recorded case rates, where they may only be testing symptomatic people while the US tests people like crazy. They also have a lower obesity rate, so they could have confounding variables that reduce the mortality rate relative to what they see, despite the fact that the US has a much more capable health/hospital system.  


But so far it's looking like Omicron, while still a virus that is dangerous and can still result in deaths, is significantly more benign than previous strains. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 06, 2022, 11:14:00 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 06, 2022, 11:07:40 AM
Case numbers still skyrocketing. The US and the world have set new daily case records each of the past two days.

US and world numbers don't show any uptick in deaths, but due to the 3-week lag, it's too early to see that sort of thing.

South Africa is the interesting one to watch, for a few reasons:


  • Both cases and deaths followed pretty strong "spike" patterns, i.e. between waves both their cases and their deaths went down to a pretty low baseline.
  • Their Omicron spike started basically Dec 1, so we have over a month for deaths to show up, and the peak of their spike was right around Dec 15-17, so right now should be basically 3 weeks out from their peak.
  • Their daily case rates were basically the same between their Delta spike and Omicron spike, so we can do much more of an apples-to-apples comparison on death rates between the two waves.

What we see from the data is that Omicron has shown a marked increase from their baseline death rates. Baseline prior to the Omicron spike they were showing maybe 20-25 deaths per day on the 7-day MA. This has now risen to 89, with the last two days being both >100, so it's a 3-4fold increase over baseline.

However, the daily death rates during Delta were in the 350-400 range for the 7-day MA, so unless something really powerful shows up in the South African data, there could very well be a 3-4x reduction in mortality between Omicron and Delta, and that brings Omicron down to the seasonal flu range...

Obviously, there are caveats. South Africa is a much poorer country than the US, and we know they have much lower vaccination coverage. However being much poorer may significantly affect recorded case rates, where they may only be testing symptomatic people while the US tests people like crazy. They also have a lower obesity rate, so they could have confounding variables that reduce the mortality rate relative to what they see, despite the fact that the US has a much more capable health/hospital system. 


But so far it's looking like Omicron, while still a virus that is dangerous and can still result in deaths, is significantly more benign than previous strains.
gee where have I heard this before

Ive been saying this for over a week

cases way up and deaths way down

Omicron now accounts for over 90% of new cases









Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on January 06, 2022, 12:52:45 PM
Even Fauci is saying that while we can't totally let our guard down, it's time to stop measuring cases, and start looking at hospitalizations/deaths.

The biggest problem right now is the strain on workforce.  My wife is a teacher, and district wide 40 teachers are out with it.  So they have guidance councilors, assistant principals, and whoever has their certifications trying to fill in.  Only 2 in her building are hospitalized, but none are asymptomatic.  The coffee shop I stop at after dropping off our youngest at daycare is closed today because all 3 of their baristas have it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 06, 2022, 01:13:23 PM
Quote from: ELA on January 06, 2022, 12:52:45 PM
Even Fauci is saying that while we can't totally let our guard down, it's time to stop measuring cases, and start looking at hospitalizations/deaths.

The biggest problem right now is the strain on workforce.  My wife is a teacher, and district wide 40 teachers are out with it.  So they have guidance councilors, assistant principals, and whoever has their certifications trying to fill in.  Only 2 in her building are hospitalized, but none are asymptomatic.  The coffee shop I stop at after dropping off our youngest at daycare is closed today because all 3 of their baristas have it
I dont disagree with the burden omicron places on the workforce but fortunately the recover time is less then a week for most cases

we just need to all vaccinate and gut it through the next 3 to 4 weeks and we'll see the light at the end of the tunnel
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on January 06, 2022, 04:25:02 PM
My counties numbers....strong spike.  (https://i.imgur.com/3Y3rQUo.png)

https://www.brazoriacountytx.gov/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 06, 2022, 04:35:10 PM
omicron's cases spike is much higher then delta everywhere

but death count resulting from omicron will be much lower

I probably know 20 plus people who have gotten omicron and not one went to the hospital 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 06, 2022, 05:01:08 PM
Yeah I now know quite a few folks who've gotten COVID and still don't know a single person who's gone to the hospital.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 06, 2022, 05:02:38 PM
I haven't met a single person who claims to have "died" of COVID. 

Fake news!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on January 06, 2022, 05:15:27 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 06, 2022, 05:01:08 PM
Yeah I now know quite a few folks who've gotten COVID and still don't know a single person who's gone to the hospital. 
And I haven't known of or heard of anybody dying from covid in quite a while.  The last time I can remember was late summer, I think I was up to 18 people, the last being a person from work who I didn't really know but exchanged emails with and they were from my same hometown (3K ppl).  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 06, 2022, 05:18:24 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 06, 2022, 05:02:38 PM
I haven't met a single person who claims to have "died" of COVID.

Fake news!

yep and at least 50% of putts that dont reach the hole dont go in
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 06, 2022, 10:49:43 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 05, 2022, 05:26:11 AM
New variant in France. 46 mutations.

WTF... This thing was designed brilliantly.
Thanks, God.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 06, 2022, 10:53:19 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 06, 2022, 01:13:23 PM

we just need to all vaccinate and gut it through the next 3 to 4 weeks and we'll see the light at the end of the tunnel
:s_laugh:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 12:48:26 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 06, 2022, 10:53:19 PM
:s_laugh:
not sure why you think covid is funny

if you think Im wrong dont make a joke out of it

just be a man and tell me your view

Youre real good at making fun of other posters but not at putting your views on the table
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 07, 2022, 01:02:54 AM
It's funny that you're still in a hurry to get past this thing.  It's not going away in a hurry.  People are dumb.  It's a fact.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 07, 2022, 08:08:50 AM
People are dumb but that doesn't have anything to do with the reasons an endemic disease will continue to spread around the globe forever.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 08:55:37 AM
Omicron will spike within a couple of weeks and start declining and when it does delta will have vanished 

at that point hospitalizations will return to normal and we will put this thing behind us

not sure why folks who follow this thing cant see this but it will happen

as Ive said all along the only thing that would stop this from happening is a new variant popping up that is as bad or worse then delta which so far has not happened



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 07, 2022, 09:52:50 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 08:55:37 AM
Omicron will spike within a couple of weeks and start declining and when it does delta will have vanished

at that point hospitalizations will return to normal and we will put this thing behind us

not sure why folks who follow this thing cant see this but it will happen

as Ive said all along the only thing that would stop this from happening is a new variant popping up that is as bad or worse then delta which so far has not happened





It doesn't appear to have happened so far, but I'm not sure why you believe it will never happen.

I certainly believe that eventually, as the endemic pathogen continues to mutate around the globe, we'll see another bad variant arise.  I'm not advocating we lockdown or put our lives on hold ever again because of it, but I do think we've only just begun this long journey, and it will take years and perhaps decades before it recedes to the low level annoyance that the common cold is.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 10:13:26 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 07, 2022, 09:52:50 AM
It doesn't appear to have happened so far, but I'm not sure why you believe it will never happen.

I certainly believe that eventually, as the endemic pathogen continues to mutate around the globe, we'll see another bad variant arise.  I'm not advocating we lockdown or put our lives on hold ever again because of it, but I do think we've only just begun this long journey, and it will take years and perhaps decades before it recedes to the low level annoyance that the common cold is.


we can only deal with whats in front of us

sure another variant could happen but until it does we will be through the current problem in a matter of weeks

I have no problem with the notion that something worse will happen some day as long as we dont hide in fear over it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 07, 2022, 10:14:43 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 06, 2022, 11:14:00 AM
gee where have I heard this before

Ive been saying this for over a week

cases way up and deaths way down

Omicron now accounts for over 90% of new cases

Deaths down from Delta, sure...

But if this thing has similar mortality rates to the seasonal flu, AND has an R0 in the range of 10, there's still gonna be a lot of people dying. Because a lot more people are going to get it than get the flu each year. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 07, 2022, 10:15:27 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 07, 2022, 01:02:54 AM
It's funny that you're still in a hurry to get past this thing.  It's not going away in a hurry.  People are dumb.  It's a fact. 
People being dumb doesn't necessitate you being a dick. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 10:25:46 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 07, 2022, 10:14:43 AM
Deaths down from Delta, sure...

But if this thing has similar mortality rates to the seasonal flu, AND has an R0 in the range of 10, there's still gonna be a lot of people dying. Because a lot more people are going to get it than get the flu each year.
so far that hasnt been the case in South Africa and the UK

I hope the US will show similar results

Again we dont agree on this so we'll just have to wait and see

and incidentally aprox 50,000 people die from the flu each year while delta killed over 800,000 in two years
so this doesn't look like a bad trade at all
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 07, 2022, 10:58:58 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 10:25:46 AM
so far that hasnt been the case in South Africa and the UK

I hope the US will show similar results

Again we dont agree on this so we'll just have to wait and see

and incidentally aprox 50,000 people die from the flu each year while delta killed over 800,000 in two years
so this doesn't look like a bad trade at all
South Africa has already shown a marked upturn in the 7-day MA of deaths. Not as large as their delta spike, but significant, as in 3-4x the baseline death rate before the Omicron spike. And it's occurring exactly when expected, ~3 weeks after the big spike in cases. 

The UK really started to feel the Omicron spike maybe around Dec 16-17, about 3 weeks ago exactly. They were on a slow decline in the 7-day MA of deaths, down to about the low 110-115 range (bottomed out for a few days below 100 right after Christmas, but that could be reporting delays due to holidays). As of yesterday the 7-day MA has climbed to 157, a number they haven't seen since November. And cases were climbing significantly above those numbers around Dec 16-17, so the expectation would be the deaths would climb higher too. 

IMHO the case fatality rates are going to look significantly better than Delta. That doesn't mean the numbers will look great overall, because the case numbers are absolutely huge. US, UK, and worldwide are setting new daily case records seemingly every day over the last few. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 07, 2022, 11:01:17 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 07, 2022, 10:58:58 AM
South Africa has already shown a marked upturn in the 7-day MA of deaths. Not as large as their delta spike, but significant, as in 3-4x the baseline death rate before the Omicron spike. And it's occurring exactly when expected, ~3 weeks after the big spike in cases.

The UK really started to feel the Omicron spike maybe around Dec 16-17, about 3 weeks ago exactly. They were on a slow decline in the 7-day MA of deaths, down to about the low 110-115 range (bottomed out for a few days below 100 right after Christmas, but that could be reporting delays due to holidays). As of yesterday the 7-day MA has climbed to 157, a number they haven't seen since November. And cases were climbing significantly above those numbers around Dec 16-17, so the expectation would be the deaths would climb higher too.

IMHO the case fatality rates are going to look significantly better than Delta. That doesn't mean the numbers will look great overall, because the case numbers are absolutely huge. US, UK, and worldwide are setting new daily case records seemingly every day over the last few.

Right. Half the death rate but with twice the cases, is still the same absolute number of deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on January 07, 2022, 11:07:58 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 06, 2022, 10:49:43 PM
Thanks, God.
God isn’t real, and he had nothing to do with this. 

This thing was 99.99% created in a lab through gain of function research and escaped, and the Chinese went into coverup mode immediately and as the emails that were released via FOIA law suites showed - the US citizens with ties to that lab- namely Peter Daszak- and the people at the NIH who fund his grants- Anthony Fauci and Francis Collins immediately went into damage control, crisis management, lie lie lie, suppress fact mode and sway public opinion mode. 

We know for a fact the NIH funded grants to EcoHealth Alliance and we know for a fact that EcoHealth Alliance was using money from those grants to fund gain of function research in the Wuhan virology lab. These are just matter of fact- and fact that Fauci and the NIH have not been honest about until they got caught with their pants down and had to admit it.

I was never the biggest Obama fan, but one thing about the guy- he was super intelligent and very sharp. He knew this gain of function crap was too risky and something like this could happen so he had his administration shut down all funding of grants to gain of function research effective immediately and put a ban on it indefinitely. 

It wasn’t until late 2017 in the Trump administration when Fauci was able to go around that administrations back and reboot and kick start NIH gain of function research all over again. Josh Rogin of the Washington Post wrote a book on this. Fascinating stuff, I suggest you read it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 07, 2022, 11:13:16 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 07, 2022, 11:01:17 AM
Right. Half the death rate but with twice the cases, is still the same absolute number of deaths.
I should point out that there may be another confounding variable as it relates to the case/death relationship, especially in the US.

America seems to have a serious hard-on for COVID testing. It seems that the mantra is that everyone should be testing, all the damn time. Test for this event, test for that event, test in the event that you've turned testing into an event in its own right. 

So we're probably catching TONS of COVID-positive people who are asymptomatic or just have the sniffles, many of whom are vaccinated, and almost none of whom have a serious chance of ending up in the hospital, ICU, or morgue. 

So in a world where testing was mostly done for people who think they have a decent likelihood of having COVID, i.e. they are symptomatic or perhaps they're a close contact of someone known to have COVID, I would expect the deaths graph to mostly look like the cases graph, smaller, and smaller than we saw with Delta, with a 3-week lag, but generally the same shape. 

With our insane testing regimen, however, it won't surprise me if the death curves appear even more muted than you'd expect based upon the shape of the cases curves. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 07, 2022, 11:19:28 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 07, 2022, 11:13:16 AM
I should point out that there may be another confounding variable as it relates to the case/death relationship, especially in the US.

America seems to have a serious hard-on for COVID testing. It seems that the mantra is that everyone should be testing, all the damn time. Test for this event, test for that event, test in the event that you've turned testing into an event in its own right.

So we're probably catching TONS of COVID-positive people who are asymptomatic or just have the sniffles, many of whom are vaccinated, and almost none of whom have a serious chance of ending up in the hospital, ICU, or morgue.

So in a world where testing was mostly done for people who think they have a decent likelihood of having COVID, i.e. they are symptomatic or perhaps they're a close contact of someone known to have COVID, I would expect the deaths graph to mostly look like the cases graph, smaller, and smaller than we saw with Delta, with a 3-week lag, but generally the same shape.

With our insane testing regimen, however, it won't surprise me if the death curves appear even more muted than you'd expect based upon the shape of the cases curves.

Sure, that could be.

I don't know anything at all about testing in SA.  I do believe that testing in the UK is probably fairly similar to testing in the USA, because they have similar or perhaps even more rigid restrictions on events and travel, than we do, with testing as a primary avenue for obtaining your "ticket to ride."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on January 07, 2022, 11:38:50 AM
well, these retards are doing it again. they are going to f***ig kill us all. Where is Obama when you need him?

https://youtu.be/LmNYwnq2pZU
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 11:39:42 AM
Im not talking about percent of deaths being lower but actual deaths being lower and very quickly

we just dont agree on this 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 07, 2022, 12:16:11 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 11:39:42 AM
Im not talking about percent of deaths being lower but actual deaths being lower and very quickly

we just dont agree on this


We know what you're saying.

There's nothing to agree or disagree on as of yet.  There's not enough data to base any conclusions yet-- not even from SA or UK.

I understand that you WANT this to end, we all do.  But wishing our way past the next 4-6 weeks won't accomplish anything.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 12:37:25 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 07, 2022, 12:16:11 PM
We know what you're saying.

There's nothing to agree or disagree on as of yet.  There's not enough data to base any conclusions yet-- not even from SA or UK.

I understand that you WANT this to end, we all do.  But wishing our way past the next 4-6 weeks won't accomplish anything.
yes there is enough data available to support my view

wishing is not involved 

If Im wrong I'll be the first to admit it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 07, 2022, 12:46:09 PM
I get a sense more and more of "us" are reaching the conclusion that this is endemic, it's here, we're not going to stop it, and most measures are not effective anyway.  I'm against the vaccine mandates even though I think they could make some difference, but at what cost?  Staffing is a serious issue already.

And enforcement would be problematic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 07, 2022, 12:51:55 PM
I'd guess deaths will be lower in percentage because many at high risk of death have already died of Delta

Some logic, some wishing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 12:53:33 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 07, 2022, 12:51:55 PM
I'd guess deaths will be lower in percentage because many at high risk of death have already died of Delta

Some logic, some wishing
deaths will be lower actual not percentage

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 07, 2022, 12:54:49 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 07, 2022, 12:46:09 PM
I get a sense more and more of "us" are reaching the conclusion that this is endemic, it's here, we're not going to stop it, and most measures are not effective anyway.  I'm against the vaccine mandates even though I think they could make some difference, but at what cost?  Staffing is a serious issue already.

And enforcement would be problematic.

I can't schedule a booster anywhere within 25 miles of my house, any time within the next 3 weeks.  Some of it is supply, some of it is staffing, but the bottom line is that it's neither simple nor convenient, which are the two primary criteria to make an ongoing vaccine program effective.

I'm not sweating it, I waited a while to get the first two and I'm fine with waiting a while to get the third.  But Travis County-- the county in which Austin and most of the metro area reside-- has gone back to "Stage 5" and has already redefined "fully vaccinated" as being THREE shots.  So I am no longer considered fully vaccinated.  It doesn't really make any difference from an enforcement perspective, but it's an example that we're about to start descending back into the madness.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 07, 2022, 12:56:02 PM
South Africa is coming down, Germany may be as well.  This peak and valley thing is very likely to continue I suspect.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 12:58:51 PM

This is what will happen here

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/interactive/2022/omicron-comparison-cases-deaths-hospitalizations/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 07, 2022, 01:01:37 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 12:58:51 PM
This is what will happen here

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/interactive/2022/omicron-comparison-cases-deaths-hospitalizations/
Quote
However, it’s important to note that even if omicron puts only a third as many infected people in the hospital, if cases continue to rise and the variants infect three times as many people, the same number will end up in the hospital despite the lower hospitalization rate. The same goes for deaths.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 07, 2022, 01:05:58 PM
see, you were both right and arguing just for the sake of wasting breath
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 07, 2022, 01:42:28 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 07, 2022, 01:05:58 PM
see, you were both right and arguing just for the sake of wasting breath


(https://i.imgur.com/NEOOA57.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 01:46:21 PM
However, it’s important to note that even if omicron puts only a third as many infected people in the hospital, if cases continue to rise and the variants infect three times as many people, the same number will end up in the hospital despite the lower hospitalization rate. The same goes for deaths.

so far that is not happening as the graphs show no where near the prior death or hospitalizations have been reached

again lets just see and discuss when results are in 

the omicron cases started to mount up on December 27th so by January 27th we should see what omicron is doing to new deaths and hospitalizations

I expect hospitalizations to be slightly higher but I expect deaths to be lower




Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 07, 2022, 02:08:52 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 07, 2022, 12:54:49 PM
I can't schedule a booster anywhere within 25 miles of my house, any time within the next 3 weeks.  Some of it is supply, some of it is staffing, but the bottom line is that it's neither simple nor convenient, which are the two primary criteria to make an ongoing vaccine program effective.

I'm not sweating it, I waited a while to get the first two and I'm fine with waiting a while to get the third.  But Travis County-- the county in which Austin and most of the metro area reside-- has gone back to "Stage 5" and has already redefined "fully vaccinated" as being THREE shots.  So I am no longer considered fully vaccinated.  It doesn't really make any difference from an enforcement perspective, but it's an example that we're about to start descending back into the madness.

Uggh.  Your spot on.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 07, 2022, 02:09:05 PM
So...

Evidence for a mouse origin of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant - PubMed (nih.gov) (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34954396/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 07, 2022, 02:21:07 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 07, 2022, 02:09:05 PM
So...

Evidence for a mouse origin of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant - PubMed (nih.gov) (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34954396/)
Somehow I knew Disney was at the center of all of this!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 07, 2022, 02:55:06 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 12:53:33 PM
deaths will be lower actual not percentage
And yet, deaths are currently rising in South Africa and the UK. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 03:03:47 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/6vuZNhs.png)

amount of increase is very small and basically a weekly up or down variance
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 07, 2022, 03:06:51 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 07, 2022, 01:42:28 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/NEOOA57.png)

I've been hanging around youse Texans long enough to know...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 07, 2022, 03:17:35 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 07, 2022, 10:15:27 AM
People being dumb doesn't necessitate you being a dick.
Uhh, we can dig up posts from the Spring of 2020 to find who the dicks really are.  Me casually pointing out the reality of the situation falls far short of the ideological filth posted on this thread back then.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 07, 2022, 03:41:14 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 07, 2022, 03:17:35 PM
Uhh, we can dig up posts from the Spring of 2020 to find who the dicks really are.  Me casually pointing out the reality of the situation falls far short of the ideological filth posted on this thread back then.
I don't recall any of that "filth" back then, but perhaps I missed it.

I thought the discussion in this thread was pretty solid overall.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 07, 2022, 03:54:41 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 03:03:47 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/6vuZNhs.png)

amount of increase is very small and basically a weekly up or down variance
Yes, but look at it relative to Delta... Which is all of Fall '21. Delta wasn't that big spike from Oct '20 to Mar '21, it's the small rise from summer '21 to now. 

Also note that this is the first week we would expect to see a rise from Omicron and we're seeing... A rise from Omicron. 

If the next week doesn't show a continued increase from where we are, then I'd say you're right. If it does, then I'd say it shows I'm right. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 04:08:10 PM
for you to be right it would have to increase a lot more then this increase but we shall see
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 07, 2022, 04:11:07 PM
The two highest single day death counts in the last 10 months were Dec 30 and Jan 5... Which means higher than any day since the arrival of Delta... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 04:16:21 PM
but I could look at the same time period and find large decreases so looking at a snapshot of 2 days really isnt telling
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 07, 2022, 04:18:15 PM
https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1479528897259712513?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1479528897259712513%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.surlyhorns.com%2Fboard%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FPaulMainwood%2Fstatus%2F1479528897259712513

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 04:20:50 PM
need to still get vaccinated 3 jabs
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 07, 2022, 04:24:14 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 04:20:50 PM
need to still get vaccinated 3 jabs
Why?  That chart shows the difference is mathematically nonexistent in cohorts up to age 50, and is statistically insignificant in cohorts up to age 70.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 04:28:33 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 07, 2022, 04:24:14 PM
Why?  That chart shows the difference is mathematically nonexistent in cohorts up to age 50, and is statistically insignificant in cohorts up to age 70.
so I guess I read the chart wrong in that in each age group your chances of going to the hospital are greatly reduced if you are vaccinated

are you saying the chart indicates only certain age groups need to be vaccinated?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 07, 2022, 04:30:25 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 04:28:33 PM
so I guess I read the chart wrong in that in each age group your chances of going to the hospital are greatly reduced if you are vaccinated

are you saying the chart indicates only certain age groups need to be vaccinated?
No, getting vaxed with 2 jabs versus being completely unvaxed makes a large difference in all age cohorts.

What I'm noting is that there's effectively no difference in critical care outcome between getting 2 jabs and getting 3, until you reach the 70 and above cohort.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 04:33:02 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 07, 2022, 04:30:25 PM
No, getting vaxed with 2 jabs makes a large difference in all age cohorts.

What I'm noting is that there's effectively no difference in critical care outcome between getting 2 jabs and getting 3, until you reach the 70 and above cohort.
that may be but just the same get 3 jabs for as much protection as you can get at least that my opinion
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 07, 2022, 04:39:44 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 04:33:02 PM
that may be but just the same get 3 jabs for as much protection as you can get at least that my opinion
That's certainly something you can do for yourself, if you like.

But the science doesn't support it.  Which means it shouldn't become a matter of public policy.

Now, this is just one data set. I'd be interested to know if a comprehensive peer-reviewed study has been performed. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 04:42:36 PM
boosters really have not been out that long so maybe more time needs to pass to render an opinion
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 07, 2022, 04:43:58 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 04:16:21 PM
but I could look at the same time period and find large decreases so looking at a snapshot of 2 days really isnt telling
Sure, nothing is conclusive yet. 

Just saying the circumstantial evidence paints a picture...


You don't HAVE to believe that this is a trend, and you can absolutely think that both countries will just drop right back to their baseline death rate in the next week or so, or even drop down well below it.

My prediction is the opposite--deaths continue to increase in the UK, deahts stay at this higher level for several more weeks in South Africa, and deaths in the US start rising markedly by Jan 17. 


I hope I'm wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 07, 2022, 04:46:12 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 07, 2022, 04:39:44 PM
That's certainly something you can do for yourself, if you like.

But the science doesn't support it.  Which means it shouldn't become a matter of public policy.

Now, this is just one data set. I'd be interested to know if a comprehensive peer-reviewed study has been performed. 
I went for the booster because hell, why not? 

I generally had an easier time than the 2nd shot, when I had 4 hours of fever hell. In this case I had a day of malaise and some light chills, but nothing bad. My wife caught it bad from the booster though, felt nauseous and had a 102 fever at one point, and basically felt like utter crap for about a day and a half. 

She says that if Newsom demands a 4th shot for medical workers, then her office is more than free to fire her, because she's not doing it again. I don't blame her. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 04:46:27 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 07, 2022, 04:43:58 PM
Sure, nothing is conclusive yet.

Just saying the circumstantial evidence paints a picture...

  • South Africa started seeing a lot of Omicron cases.
  • 3 weeks later, they saw a marked (3x+) upturn in deaths.
  • The UK started seeing a lot of Omicron cases, above and beyond a lingering Delta case load.
  • 3 weeks later, they saw an uptick in deaths, including two days higher than any other point since arrival of Delta.

You don't HAVE to believe that this is a trend, and you can absolutely think that both countries will just drop right back to their baseline death rate in the next week or so, or even drop down well below it.

My prediction is the opposite--deaths continue to increase in the UK, deahts stay at this higher level for several more weeks in South Africa, and deaths in the US start rising markedly by Jan 17.


I hope I'm wrong.
not to worry
you are
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 07, 2022, 04:49:42 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 04:46:27 PM
not to worry
you are
I'm the first to admit when I'm wrong...

...and if that day ever comes, I'll be sure to let you know. :57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 07, 2022, 05:02:09 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 04:42:36 PM
boosters really have not been out that long so maybe more time needs to pass to render an opinion
Yes, that could be the case-- which would mean there's not enough data so there's no scientific basis for any policy requiring a 3rd shot, at this time.

Doing so on a voluntary basis, as long as you've discussed it with your doc, should be fine.  But I'm already seeing public policy documents here in Austin referring to everyone with 2 shots as "partially vaxed."  There is no scientific basis for this designation.


Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 07, 2022, 04:46:12 PM
I went for the booster because hell, why not?

I generally had an easier time than the 2nd shot, when I had 4 hours of fever hell. In this case I had a day of malaise and some light chills, but nothing bad. My wife caught it bad from the booster though, felt nauseous and had a 102 fever at one point, and basically felt like utter crap for about a day and a half.

She says that if Newsom demands a 4th shot for medical workers, then her office is more than free to fire her, because she's not doing it again. I don't blame her.

Sure, I'm not opposed to a booster, either.  My 6 months were up at the end of November and my holidays were jam-packed from Thanksgiving through new year's, so I didn't really start looking until we got back from vacation on 1/3.  And at this point, I can't find a site that will schedule a booster within 25 miles of my house, within the next 3 weeks.  So I'll wait.  It's no big deal, I'm not worried one way or the other about it.

But in the meantime, the city has decided that I am now "partially vaxed" and according to Stage 5, I'm not allowed to dine-in at restaurants or do all sorts of other things.  Now, obviously, there's no way to enforce this.  But it's just another case of bad public policy that is non science-based.  And the really frustrating part, is those in charge, are citing "the science" as the reasons for their bad policy, despite the fact that they're ignoring the actual science.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 07, 2022, 05:02:55 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 07, 2022, 03:17:35 PM
Uhh, we can dig up posts from the Spring of 2020 to find who the dicks really are.  Me casually pointing out the reality of the situation falls far short of the ideological filth posted on this thread back then.


Please do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 07, 2022, 05:14:14 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 07, 2022, 04:49:42 PM
I'm the first to admit when I'm wrong...

...and if that day ever comes, I'll be sure to let you know. :57:
same here


it will only hurt for a little bit
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 07, 2022, 05:44:05 PM
Quote from: Drew4UTk on March 13, 2020, 12:32:10 PM
Right about now I'm wishing I'd had ignored @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) and made his game electronic...

We could all assume a year and team, and have at "the greatest team ever" in style.
Good idea.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 07, 2022, 05:56:18 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 07, 2022, 05:44:05 PM
Good idea.
Heh, I went back and read the first 15 pages or so myself.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 07, 2022, 05:59:06 PM
I've been through the first 200.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 07, 2022, 06:29:26 PM
Not much to see here. But, I'm sharing anyway.

(https://i.imgur.com/AQAKfzc.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/k4v7mkZ.png)


Vaccination numbers are way down in Florida, but I'm sure it's the governor's fault that there is no supply. The good news is that the total vaccinated among the most vulnerable is very high.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on January 07, 2022, 08:35:48 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 07, 2022, 12:54:49 PM
I can't schedule a booster anywhere within 25 miles of my house, any time within the next 3 weeks.  Some of it is supply, some of it is staffing, but the bottom line is that it's neither simple nor convenient, which are the two primary criteria to make an ongoing vaccine program effective.

I'm not sweating it, I waited a while to get the first two and I'm fine with waiting a while to get the third.  But Travis County-- the county in which Austin and most of the metro area reside-- has gone back to "Stage 5" and has already redefined "fully vaccinated" as being THREE shots.  So I am no longer considered fully vaccinated.  It doesn't really make any difference from an enforcement perspective, but it's an example that we're about to start descending back into the madness.
serious question here...how many boosters are you going to wind up having to get? 

I listened to one of the inventors of the mRNA vaccine technology talk about the boosters. He basically said you can't just keep taking boosters in perpetuity. That's not how vaccination or immunization works- and you can run serious risk of absolutely frying/destroying your immune system- which is a very delicate thing that we don't even understand fully.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on January 07, 2022, 08:37:55 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 07, 2022, 02:09:05 PM
So...

Evidence for a mouse origin of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant - PubMed (nih.gov) (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34954396/)
super bug created in a lab gonna super bug.....

time to pull the freaking plug on that scumbag Fauci and shut down gain of function research forever. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on January 08, 2022, 12:54:55 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on January 07, 2022, 08:35:48 PM
serious question here...how many boosters are you going to wind up having to get?

I listened to one of the inventors of the mRNA vaccine technology talk about the boosters. He basically said you can't just keep taking boosters in perpetuity. That's not how vaccination or immunization works- and you can run serious risk of absolutely frying/destroying your immune system- which is a very delicate thing that we don't even understand fully.
Sounds interesting. Would love to listen to that. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on January 08, 2022, 12:58:18 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 07, 2022, 12:54:49 PM
I can't schedule a booster anywhere within 25 miles of my house, any time within the next 3 weeks.  Some of it is supply, some of it is staffing, but the bottom line is that it's neither simple nor convenient, which are the two primary criteria to make an ongoing vaccine program effective.

I'm not sweating it, I waited a while to get the first two and I'm fine with waiting a while to get the third.  But Travis County-- the county in which Austin and most of the metro area reside-- has gone back to "Stage 5" and has already redefined "fully vaccinated" as being THREE shots.  So I am no longer considered fully vaccinated.  It doesn't really make any difference from an enforcement perspective, but it's an example that we're about to start descending back into the madness.

I’m flummoxed why I am in a place where it’s so easy, but you’re not? I just pulled up the CVS website, clicked on an appointment time, and went. Just very confused
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: EastAthens on January 08, 2022, 07:54:05 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on January 08, 2022, 12:58:18 AM
I’m flummoxed why I am in a place where it’s so easy, but you’re not? I just pulled up the CVS website, clicked on an appointment time, and went. Just very confused
Same, I walked into my East Athens Publix without an appointment and never even had to wait for any of the 3 shots.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 08, 2022, 08:00:52 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on January 08, 2022, 12:58:18 AM
I’m flummoxed why I am in a place where it’s so easy, but you’re not? I just pulled up the CVS website, clicked on an appointment time, and went. Just very confused
Part of utee's personal campaign to keep people from moving there
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 08, 2022, 09:39:17 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on January 07, 2022, 08:35:48 PM
serious question here...how many boosters are you going to wind up having to get?

I listened to one of the inventors of the mRNA vaccine technology talk about the boosters. He basically said you can't just keep taking boosters in perpetuity. That's not how vaccination or immunization works- and you can run serious risk of absolutely frying/destroying your immune system- which is a very delicate thing that we don't even understand fully.
Dunno how many. If you have links to the scientific treatises on how it can "fry" your immune system I'd be interested in reviewing them.

Quote from: bayareabadger on January 08, 2022, 12:58:18 AM
I’m flummoxed why I am in a place where it’s so easy, but you’re not? I just pulled up the CVS website, clicked on an appointment time, and went. Just very confused

Couldn't tell you.  I speculated earlier that it's a combination of supply, and staffing.  It would have been easy a few months ago, I have several friends who went and did it back in early November with no waits. I hadn't yet hit 6 months and wasn't in any hurry, anyway.

But now, in my region, I guess demand is high because a lot of adults are coming due, and children age 12 and up are also recently approved for boosters.

It was exactly like this when vaccines first rolled out to the under50 population back in April.  I had to wait at least a month before I could get an appointment that was nearby and at a reasonable time.

Quote from: MrNubbz on January 08, 2022, 08:00:52 AM
Part of utee's personal campaign to keep people from moving there

Diabolical!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 08, 2022, 10:38:55 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on January 08, 2022, 12:58:18 AM
I’m flummoxed why I am in a place where it’s so easy, but you’re not? I just pulled up the CVS website, clicked on an appointment time, and went. Just very confused
There's a bit of a shortage in Florida too, and not just the vaccines. It's the mononuclear antibody treatments too. Ever since the Feds took over the latter, Florida has been short.

I think games are being played.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 08, 2022, 11:04:08 AM
Hospitalizations in OC now higher than during the Delta wave and higher than summer 2020, still below the early 2021 post-holiday surge.

https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/orange-county-covid-19-hospitalizations-exceed-first-wave/2793531/?amp
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 08, 2022, 11:23:57 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 08, 2022, 11:04:08 AM
Hospitalizations in OC now higher than during the Delta wave and higher than summer 2020, still below the early 2021 post-holiday surge.

https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/orange-county-covid-19-hospitalizations-exceed-first-wave/2793531/?amp
I'd like to know where OC stands in relation to this kind of thing:


Almost half of reported NY COVID-19 hospitalizations are not due to COVID-19 | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/health/almost-half-reported-ny-covid-19-hospitalizations-not-due-covid-19)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on January 08, 2022, 11:44:36 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 08, 2022, 11:23:57 AM
I'd like to know where OC stands in relation to this kind of thing:


Almost half of reported NY COVID-19 hospitalizations are not due to COVID-19 | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/health/almost-half-reported-ny-covid-19-hospitalizations-not-due-covid-19)
I'd be interested in the mechanics of that. I.e. what is "admitted for non-COVID conditions." 

If you might have COVID, is that how it's recored? Like, if you come in with COVID symptoms, but they don't know if you have it, does that count? I always like to start with a statistic by asking, "if this is being used to fuel the most convenient point, is it actually saying that?" It's like that comorbidity thing, which existed in a super context-free world. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 08, 2022, 11:46:58 AM
To me, there is a major difference in dying from Covid versus dying with Covid.

The two are not the same. Not even close.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 08, 2022, 11:51:15 AM
On the one hand, if the hospitals and ICUs are full, I don't really care about arguing the semantics of how or why.  It's a health crisis regardless.

On the other hand, when communities are dictating their public health policy responses to COVID based solely on whether the hospital reach a certain threshold, and not on the CAUSE of the occupancy, then that becomes a problem.

For example, requiring the 3rd booster for normal social interaction when present data is showing it's statistically insignificant with respect to hospitalization and severe outcomes...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 08, 2022, 12:00:00 PM
My GUESS if folks show up in the ER and get a quick triage, they have trouble breathing, so they are admitted, and THEN tested and found to have COVID.

I'm not surprised they don't know why they are sick when they show up.

I went to the ER with my heart thing, sent by my Primary, and they just wrote down what I told them, or tried to, I got asked some stupid questions really on admission.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 08, 2022, 12:19:56 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 08, 2022, 11:51:15 AM
On the one hand, if the hospitals and ICUs are full, I don't really care about arguing the semantics of how or why.  It's a health crisis regardless.

On the other hand, when communities are dictating their public health policy responses to COVID based solely on whether the hospital reach a certain threshold, and not on the CAUSE of the occupancy, then that becomes a problem.

For example, requiring the 3rd booster for normal social interaction when present data is showing it's statistically insignificant with respect to hospitalization and severe outcomes...
I have not looked, but I would really like to see a report on the ICU occupancies in Januarys prior to 2020, as a comparison to now. I guess I would not know where to start.

Right now, 12 percent of Florida's beds are occupied by Covid patients. If the other 88 percent are occupied, then that's a problem.

But, it's NOT a Covid problem. It's a system problem. Maybe they need more beds, period.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on January 08, 2022, 02:07:15 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on January 08, 2022, 11:44:36 AM
I'd be interested in the mechanics of that. I.e. what is "admitted for non-COVID conditions."

If you might have COVID, is that how it's recored? Like, if you come in with COVID symptoms, but they don't know if you have it, does that count? I always like to start with a statistic by asking, "if this is being used to fuel the most convenient point, is it actually saying that?" It's like that comorbidity thing, which existed in a super context-free world.
https://twitter.com/davidwade/status/1479198167409340419?t=z8cvcgRWPExvUaWv0GQjoQ&s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 08, 2022, 02:10:00 PM

Quote
"I'm surprised this didn't happen much earlier."

Hmmm.  He might be, but I'm not.

Regardless, it's a step in the right direction, as we must move as a nation and as a global community past the idea that this is a pandemic, and accept that the virus is endemic and omnipresent.

The COVID-hysteria has got to end and it must be replaced by sound public policy based on solid scientific data.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 08, 2022, 02:34:45 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 08, 2022, 11:23:57 AM
I'd like to know where OC stands in relation to this kind of thing:


Almost half of reported NY COVID-19 hospitalizations are not due to COVID-19 | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/health/almost-half-reported-ny-covid-19-hospitalizations-not-due-covid-19)
Not sure on OC. Politically, OC is more conservative than any other populous area in CA, so I don't think there would be a political pressure to overcount.

I also don't know that there has been any change in reporting methodology over the course of the pandemic, so at least when comparing OC-to-OC numbers over time, I don't think you can point to these hospitalization numbers relative to past waves as being reported differently. 

Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 08, 2022, 11:46:58 AM
To me, there is a major difference in dying from Covid versus dying with Covid.

The two are not the same. Not even close.
True. 

But a lot of extra people have been dying through this thing: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Oddly enough, the shape of the excess death numbers seem to mirror the waves of high case rates. Who'da thunk it? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 08, 2022, 03:01:33 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 08, 2022, 02:34:45 PM

But a lot of extra people have been dying through this thing: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Oddly enough, the shape of the excess death numbers seem to mirror the waves of high case rates. Who'da thunk it?
Of course. And a lot of those people (90+ % if not more) have 3+ other things wrong with them. In Italy, it was close to 4 things. Covid pushed them over the edge. Still sad, but I can't see another way of looking at it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 08, 2022, 03:11:55 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 08, 2022, 02:10:00 PM
The COVID-hysteria has got to end and it must be replaced by sound public policy based on solid scientific data.

unfortunately, you're not in charge

the hysteria shows no sign of ending and no sign of sound policy based on anything solid
"has got to" and "must" seem silly
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on January 08, 2022, 06:53:32 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 08, 2022, 11:46:58 AM
To me, there is a major difference in dying from Covid versus dying with Covid.

The two are not the same. Not even close.
While somewhat true, there is a great thirst to paint any other medical condition combined with COVID as "dying with COVID."

The reality is of course somewhat in the middle. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 08, 2022, 07:08:22 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on January 08, 2022, 06:53:32 PM
While somewhat true, there is a great thirst to paint any other medical condition combined with COVID as "dying with COVID."

The reality is of course somewhat in the middle.
No it's not.

Hospitals got a shit ton more money for Covid deaths than they did regular deaths.

You know how I know this?

I was on the Foundation Board at our local hospital in Illinois until 12/31/21.

I'm no longer on that board, but I will be joining the board at our local hospital in Punta Gorda in March.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on January 08, 2022, 07:19:13 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 08, 2022, 07:08:22 PM
No it's not.

Hospitals got a shit ton more money for Covid deaths than they did regular deaths.

You know how I know this?

I was on the Foundation Board at our local hospital in Illinois until 12/31/21.

I'm no longer on that board, but I will be joining the board at our local hospital in Punta Gorda in March.
I thought you were talking in an actual practical sense, i.e. comorbidities and such. 

The way you phrased that, it sound like hospitals are being paid by the death, which would be awkward. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 08, 2022, 07:20:36 PM
Awkward, and true. Not by death, but if they report Covid, it's double than if it's not Covid.

It's criminal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 08, 2022, 07:24:49 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 08, 2022, 03:11:55 PM
unfortunately, you're not in charge

the hysteria shows no sign of ending and no sign of sound policy based on anything solid
"has got to" and "must" seem silly

Sad but true.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on January 08, 2022, 07:27:04 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 08, 2022, 07:20:36 PM
Awkward, and true. Not by death, but if they report Covid, it's double than if it's not Covid.

It's criminal.
You mean from insurers?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 08, 2022, 09:23:10 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 08, 2022, 03:01:33 PM
Of course. And a lot of those people (90+ % if not more) have 3+ other things wrong with them. In Italy, it was close to 4 things. Covid pushed them over the edge. Still sad, but I can't see another way of looking at it.
Yeah, but the excess deaths numbers suggest that most of them wouldn't have died in the past two years, but for COVID... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 09, 2022, 09:49:42 AM
As I said, Covid pushed them over the edge.

As for the hospitals, they are (mostly) all getting federal funds in the event a case is Covid. 

Not Covid? No Fed funds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 09, 2022, 10:10:53 AM
My brother has the coronas now.  He was vaccinated, but Omicron really doesn't seem to care about that, with respect to transmission.  Pretty mild case, just some coughing and fatigue and a little achiness, like a mild cold or flu.  He thought it was just Cedar Fever because he gets bad allergies this time of year, but he went ahead and got tested because the cough is an unusual symptom for his annual seasonal allergies, and sure enough he tested positive.  Luckily he worked from home all week anyway so didn't come into contact with anyone after symptoms began.

By the timing of his first symptoms which began on Tuesday, he had to have been infected with it when our whole family went to New Mexico together and returned last Sunday.  But so far, no symptoms from any of the rest of us.  There were a couple of times when he went off on his own and that might be when it happened.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 09, 2022, 10:19:54 AM
shouldn't be kissing those ladies from New Mexico

my brother also spent some holiday time in New Mexico, but no COVID as far as I know
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 09, 2022, 10:20:21 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 09, 2022, 09:49:42 AM
As I said, Covid pushed them over the edge.

As for the hospitals, they are (mostly) all getting federal funds in the event a case is Covid.

Not Covid? No Fed funds.

My uncle died either late 2020 or early 21....a guy in his early 80's who had been sick quite a while, nothing to do with COVID.  The hospital in Lake Charles he passed at initially put covid as his cause of death.  They only changed it because my aunt yelled at them about it.  Any hospital will stand its ground on COD when they know they're right.  You don't change that unless you're guilty of shenanigans. 

If they tried it with him, they tried it with others, many of whom won't know better or care.

If that hospital did it, others are doing it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 09, 2022, 10:27:33 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 09, 2022, 10:10:53 AM
My brother has the coronas now.  He was vaccinated, but Omicron really doesn't seem to care about that, with respect to transmission.  Pretty mild case, just some coughing and fatigue and a little achiness, like a mild cold or flu.  He thought it was just Cedar Fever because he gets bad allergies this time of year, but he went ahead and got tested because the cough is an unusual symptom for his annual seasonal allergies, and sure enough he tested positive.  Luckily he worked from home all week anyway so didn't come into contact with anyone after symptoms began.

By the timing of his first symptoms which began on Tuesday, he had to have been infected with it when our whole family went to New Mexico together and returned last Sunday.  But so far, no symptoms from any of the rest of us.  There were a couple of times when he went off on his own and that might be when it happened.
Hope he gets over it quick

I have a scratchy throat but no fever 

I really have not been around anyone with it so Im hoping for the best

so far no other symptoms 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 09, 2022, 10:42:30 AM
One poopy thing about this whole deal is you can't test the alternatives.  Whatever action we take, we'll figure out the consequences at some point, but we can only theorize before and after about courses of action we don't take. 

There is a working theory (emphasis on "theory,"....should not be taken to mean "this is what scientists are saying") that our vaccine method and timing has caused the virus to be as adaptive as it is.  We can't know that, but there's a logical mechanism behind it.  It's possible we made this thing worse in the long term.  So why do things the way we did them?  Because we only have data pointing to that possibility after we get to see the repercussions of the roads taken. 

Probably an average Joe such as myself can hardly grasp the complexity of a pandemic.  We've literally never seen it in our lifetime, and from what I can suss out, epidemiologists and virologists can't grasp it all in real time either.  We're also only used to dealing with naturally occurring viruses.  You can find uses and necessities for all those in the bigger environmental picture.  I wouldn't think that's the case with a man-made virus, and the larger point is likely how differently something man-made behaves vs. something naturally occurring.  The rate at which the original virus adapted from its spike protein (what the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines neutralized) was quite something.  You don't see mutations and responses like that in other viruses we're familiar with, so I'm told.  

We are officially out of a pandemic and now classified as endemic.  Probably to the surprise of no one.  Time for governments, media, and people to acknowledge there is no "beating" this thing, and get on with the business of figuring how to go back to normal in a reasonable way while mentally and emotionally accepting that there's now something new in the world that just might kill you, but not likely to, and that's okay, because that's been life for millions of years.  I want people to be safe and not die.  I also want people to stop committing suicide, kids to stop being developmentally stunted due to wearing masks, the economy not to be crap.....etc.  A strong economy, btw, as anyone who has done a smidge of research will tell you, is the most important societal factor in a population's long term health.  Can't depress the economy for an extended period of time and claim you're trying to medically protect your citizens.  It's ignorance, rhetoric, power-grabbing, something else I don't see, or a combination of all four.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 09, 2022, 11:13:15 AM
Quote from: MikeDeTiger on January 09, 2022, 10:20:21 AM
My uncle died either late 2020 or early 21....a guy in his early 80's who had been sick quite a while, nothing to do with COVID.  The hospital in Lake Charles he passed at initially put covid as his cause of death.  They only changed it because my aunt yelled at them about it.  Any hospital will stand its ground on COD when they know they're right.  You don't change that unless you're guilty of shenanigans. 

If they tried it with him, they tried it with others, many of whom won't know better or care.

If that hospital did it, others are doing it. 
No doubt.  There have been other instances like this, and some have managed to make the "news" too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 09, 2022, 11:13:59 AM
Shenanigans. WTF.

DeSantis: Biden, Fauci 'hostile' to those focusing on COVID treatments in addition to vaccines | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/media/desantis-biden-fauci-hostile-to-those-focusing-on-treatments-in-addition-to-vaccines)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 09, 2022, 11:37:09 AM
DeSantis is a big, red cartoon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 09, 2022, 12:28:49 PM
And the best Governor in the country, by far.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 09, 2022, 12:35:45 PM
What the actual F*$%. 

Seriously? Time to retire. Just rotten to the core.

Walensky says Sotomayor's pediatric COVID hospitalization number was off 96.5% | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/walensky-sotomayors-pediatric-covid-hospitalization-number-off-96-5)

"We have over 100,000 children, which we've never had before, in serious condition and many on ventilators," Sotomayor said. That figure is more than 96.5% higher than the number of children actually hospitalized with COVID-19, according to Walensky.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 09, 2022, 12:39:33 PM
unfortunately, politicians are VERY rarely held accountable
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 09, 2022, 12:41:20 PM
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/s640x640/271219775_450344590132381_4051475494191356503_n.jpg?_nc_cat=108&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=ripQuG8KX3sAX-v12ft&tn=_MnT8OkIfzNoswba&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=00_AT8LtM5q6RFUREvNl-h00PHAhCfExqrXC5JxwVtR1JSs8A&oe=61E0EE51)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 09, 2022, 12:44:21 PM
That seems like a large exaggeration.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 09, 2022, 12:47:53 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 09, 2022, 12:44:21 PM
That seems like a large exaggeration.
Yeah, but she said it. She lied. You can't lie to the Supreme Court (or any court). But a Supreme Court member lying?

Accountability, anyone?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 09, 2022, 02:05:17 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 09, 2022, 12:35:45 PM
What the actual F*$%.

Seriously? Time to retire. Just rotten to the core.

Walensky says Sotomayor's pediatric COVID hospitalization number was off 96.5% | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/walensky-sotomayors-pediatric-covid-hospitalization-number-off-96-5)

"We have over 100,000 children, which we've never had before, in serious condition and many on ventilators," Sotomayor said. That figure is more than 96.5% higher than the number of children actually hospitalized with COVID-19, according to Walensky.
Why couldn't they just say "double?"  
Oh, right, because they have to sensationalize everything and "96.5% higher" sounds astronomical.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 09, 2022, 02:27:43 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 09, 2022, 02:05:17 PM
Why couldn't they just say "double?" 
Oh, right, because they have to sensationalize everything and "96.5% higher" sounds astronomical. 
Your "they" is CDC Goddess Walensky. Take it up with her, not the reporter. She is the one who said 96.5 percent.

100,000 is NOT double 3,500. 100,000/3,500 = 28.5.

Where the hell do you get double out of that math?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 09, 2022, 02:32:26 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 09, 2022, 02:27:43 PM
Your "they" is CDC Goddess Walensky. Take it up with her, not the reporter. She is the one who said 96.5 percent.

100,000 is NOT double 3,500. 100,000/3,500 = 28.5.

Where the hell do you get double out of that math?
Ha ha.  You do realize who your talking to don’t you. 

will never admit when his side is obviously wrong  or when the other side is obviously correct. Why do you think he likes to make fun of Desantis?
Because he can’t possibly argue on facts.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 09, 2022, 02:52:03 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 09, 2022, 02:05:17 PM
Why couldn't they just say "double?" 
Oh, right, because they have to sensationalize everything and "96.5% higher" sounds astronomical. 
Because it's not anywhere near "double"?????

It's a much larger miss than "double", as noted.  What should they have said?  She claimed 100,000 and the actual figure is closer to 3,500?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 09, 2022, 06:33:56 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 09, 2022, 11:37:09 AM
DeSantis is a big, red cartoon.

If that's true, he's a cartoon protagonist, and Gavin Newsom is his cartoon villain.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 09, 2022, 08:46:00 PM
the world has too many villains 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 10, 2022, 08:53:03 AM
There are many incentives in this thing. Anyone ever see this one?

FEMA to Help Pay Funeral Costs for COVID-19-Related Deaths | FEMA.gov (https://www.fema.gov/press-release/20210324/fema-help-pay-funeral-costs-covid-19-related-deaths)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 10, 2022, 01:40:24 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 09, 2022, 02:27:43 PM
Your "they" is CDC Goddess Walensky. Take it up with her, not the reporter. She is the one who said 96.5 percent.

100,000 is NOT double 3,500. 100,000/3,500 = 28.5.

Where the hell do you get double out of that math?
96.5% more of something is almost double.  If you have a cookie and I give you 100% more cookie, you have 2.  That's all.  I didn't read the numbers, but now that I see them, that's still not right.  96.5% more of something isn't 3500 out of 100,000.  You could only say 96.5% more if you continued with percents.  

But nevermind all that.  I didn't blame the reporter, I blamed whoever said it.  You're jumping to that conclusion.  I said "they" as in the person who said it.  

This is all so stupid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 10, 2022, 01:45:44 PM
LMAO

Be careful. 

Most tripping incidents are caused by rapid back peddling. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 10, 2022, 01:53:50 PM
It's akin to claiming someone scored 100 points in a game when they scored 3.5 points.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 10, 2022, 02:47:53 PM
Okay, but y'all are fighting about the (96.5%) math, that it doesn't (as far as I can tell) directly quote Walensky saying 96.5% anywhere, and is no longer in the headline or the text of the article.

As usual, this was a dumb journalist who saw the 100,000 and 3,500 numbers and doesn't know enough math to quote it properly.




But then, why would you expect a J-school grad to know simple arithmetic?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 10, 2022, 03:08:23 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 10, 2022, 02:47:53 PM
Okay, but y'all are fighting about the (96.5%) math, that it doesn't (as far as I can tell) directly quote Walensky saying 96.5% anywhere, and is no longer in the headline or the text of the article.

As usual, this was a dumb journalist who saw the 100,000 and 3,500 numbers and doesn't know enough math to quote it properly.


  • 3,500 is 3.5% of 100,000.
  • 100,000 is not 96.5% higher than 3,500. It's 28,571% higher than 3,500.
  • A number that is 96.5% higher than 3,500 would be 6,878.


But then, why would you expect a J-school grad to know simple arithmetic?

are you sure thats not 2857.1%
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 10, 2022, 03:21:19 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 10, 2022, 02:47:53 PM
Okay, but y'all are fighting about the (96.5%) math, that it doesn't (as far as I can tell) directly quote Walensky saying 96.5% anywhere, and is no longer in the headline or the text of the article.

As usual, this was a dumb journalist who saw the 100,000 and 3,500 numbers and doesn't know enough math to quote it properly.


  • 3,500 is 3.5% of 100,000.
  • 100,000 is not 96.5% higher than 3,500. It's 28,571% higher than 3,500.
  • A number that is 96.5% higher than 3,500 would be 6,878.


But then, why would you expect a J-school grad to know simple arithmetic?

I don't care about that. I just care about it being horribly wrong on all levels.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 10, 2022, 03:21:31 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 10, 2022, 03:08:23 PM
are you sure thats not 2857.1%
You are correct.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 10, 2022, 03:25:20 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 10, 2022, 03:08:23 PM
are you sure thats not 2857.1%
Yeah, I half-assed the math calculation and managed to shoot myself in the foot dunking on someone who was bad at math with... bad math. 

My apologies lol.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 10, 2022, 03:27:27 PM
2871% >>> 96.5%

2871 would have been much more sensational. The reporter did the justice a solid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 10, 2022, 03:30:38 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 10, 2022, 03:27:27 PM
2871% >>> 96.5%

2871 would have been much more sensational. The reporter did the justice a solid.
Yeah, I'm sure the Fox News journalist was desperately trying to make Sonia Sotomayor sound less wrong lol... :57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 10, 2022, 03:43:13 PM
Who TF cares what the percentage was?  The original statement was:


Quote
"We have over 100,000 children, which we've never had before, in serious condition and many on ventilators," Sotomayor said.


That's a gross exaggeration and the only options are, Sotomayor is stupid and is making up numbers without bothering to look up the facts OR Sotomayor is deliberately misrepresenting the number to push an agenda.

Neither of those are acceptable, for a Supreme Court Justice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 10, 2022, 03:51:37 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 10, 2022, 03:43:13 PM
Who TF cares what the percentage was?  The original statement was:



That's a gross exaggeration and the only options are, Sotomayor is stupid and is making up numbers without bothering to look up the facts OR Sotomayor is deliberately misrepresenting the number to push an agenda.

Neither of those are acceptable, for a Supreme Court Justice.
makes you wonder what other wrong ideas they have
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 10, 2022, 03:59:52 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 10, 2022, 03:43:13 PM
Who TF cares what the percentage was?  The original statement was:



That's a gross exaggeration and the only options are, Sotomayor is stupid and is making up numbers without bothering to look up the facts OR Sotomayor is deliberately misrepresenting the number to push an agenda.

Neither of those are acceptable, for a Supreme Court Justice.
The other option is that she heard bad info from someone somewhere, and she thought it was correct at the time. Maybe one of her clerks researching for her misinterpreted some other stat and relayed it incorrectly or Sotomayor just misunderstood what numbers were being provided. 

I would expect more from a Supreme Court Justice, but we don't have to go to stupid or dishonest as the ONLY options. 

We all like to think that everyone on the opposite side must either be dumb or evil, but sometimes it's possible to be honestly wrong. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 10, 2022, 04:13:24 PM
I'd think you'd need to try REALLY hard to be THAT wrong.

Hence...

This is a huge case that she will help to decide, even though she's already decided.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 10, 2022, 04:14:43 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 10, 2022, 03:59:52 PM
The other option is that she heard bad info from someone somewhere, and she thought it was correct at the time. Maybe one of her clerks researching for her misinterpreted some other stat and relayed it incorrectly or Sotomayor just misunderstood what numbers were being provided.

I would expect more from a Supreme Court Justice, but we don't have to go to stupid or dishonest as the ONLY options.

We all like to think that everyone on the opposite side must either be dumb or evil, but sometimes it's possible to be honestly wrong.
Or- in this case…. Dumb or evil. 

not really though, just taking the art of disinformation for political gain to new heights.

I wonder if she will be banned from any social media platforms for “this information”?😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 10, 2022, 04:21:04 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 10, 2022, 03:59:52 PM
The other option is that she heard bad info from someone somewhere, and she thought it was correct at the time. Maybe one of her clerks researching for her misinterpreted some other stat and relayed it incorrectly or Sotomayor just misunderstood what numbers were being provided.

I would expect more from a Supreme Court Justice, but we don't have to go to stupid or dishonest as the ONLY options.

We all like to think that everyone on the opposite side must either be dumb or evil, but sometimes it's possible to be honestly wrong.
To be clear, she's not on the "opposite side" from me.

Or, probably more precisely, they are ALL on the "opposite side" from me.

But repeating the number 100,000, even earnestly but mistakenly, given everything we know of the virus over the past two years now, is still at best a sign of stupidity in my eyes. 

Even if fed by an aid, that's the kind of number that warrants pausing, and understanding, before repeating. It immediately rang false to every single one of us here, because we've been alive and paying attention the last two years.  I'd expect at least that much from a Supreme Court Justice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 10, 2022, 04:54:38 PM
Again, we're engineers. We're numerate. We're the type of people that have an innate sense when numbers just "sound wrong". 

She's a lawyer-turned-judge. 100,000 might not sound all that alarming to her because it's a number both so large in a real sense and so small in relation to a 330M population nation that she simply cannot fathom what that number actually means. 

Numbers are confusing and scary to most people. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 10, 2022, 05:01:12 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 10, 2022, 04:54:38 PM
Again, we're engineers. We're numerate. We're the type of people that have an innate sense when numbers just "sound wrong".

She's a lawyer-turned-judge. 100,000 might not sound all that alarming to her because it's a number both so large in a real sense and so small in relation to a 330M population nation that she simply cannot fathom what that number actually means.

Numbers are confusing and scary to most people.
and yet she is in a position of control over our lives which is kinda scary

when I think of the Supreme Court I dont think in terms of party affiliation until now

we need to investigate what other stupid things they believe
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 10, 2022, 05:03:54 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 10, 2022, 05:01:12 PM
and yet she is in a position of control over our lives which is kinda scary

when I think of the Supreme Court I dont think in terms of party affiliation until now

we need to investigate what other stupid things they believe
I'm sure Badge would agree with me that if we had a lot more engineers, and far fewer lawyers, in Congress, that the country would be a better place. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 10, 2022, 05:04:59 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 10, 2022, 05:03:54 PM
I'm sure Badge would agree with me that if we had a lot more engineers, and far fewer lawyers, in Congress, that the country would be a better place.
Amen, brutha.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 10, 2022, 05:08:13 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 09, 2022, 02:27:43 PM

Your "they" is CDC Goddess Walensky. Take it up with her, not the reporter. She is the one who said 96.5 percent.

100,000 is NOT double 3,500. 100,000/3,500 = 28.5.
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 10, 2022, 01:40:24 PM

96.5% more of something is almost double.  If you have a cookie and I give you 100% more cookie, you have 2.  That's all.  I didn't read the numbers, but now that I see them, that's still not right.  96.5% more of something isn't 3500 out of 100,000.  You could only say 96.5% more if you continued with percents. 
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 09, 2022, 02:52:03 PM

Because it's not anywhere near "double"?????

It's a much larger miss than "double", as noted.  What should they have said?  She claimed 100,000 and the actual figure is closer to 3,500?

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 10, 2022, 02:47:53 PM

Okay, but y'all are fighting about the (96.5%) math, that it doesn't (as far as I can tell) directly quote Walensky saying 96.5% anywhere, and is no longer in the headline or the text of the article.


  • 3,500 is 3.5% of 100,000.
  • 100,000 is not 96.5% higher than 3,500. It's 28,571% higher than 3,500.
  • A number that is 96.5% higher than 3,500 would be 6,878.
Oh now you all show your cards.Just where in the hell were all you slappies for important matters? Like when I was placing wagers,crunching numbers,factoring %s,calculating stats,historical data,searching handicapping formulas,and a host of other variables to dissect any match up,predict an out come of a game and scrape up a decent profit margin.Thanks for nothing













Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 10, 2022, 05:13:15 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on January 10, 2022, 05:08:13 PM
Oh now you all show your cards.Just where in the hell were all you slappies for important matters? Like when I was placing wagers,crunching numbers,factoring %s,calculating stats,historical data,searching handicapping formulas,and a host of other variables to dissect any match up,predict an out come of a game and scrape up a decent profit margin.Thanks for nothing














I was right here noting your mistakes
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 10, 2022, 05:15:20 PM
Had to be from '03/'04 until 2010 - on the old board then 😎
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 10, 2022, 05:16:43 PM
so now Pfizer says they will have an omicron vaccine available by March

why wouldnt any unvaccinated person just wait till March and get the omicron vaccine

Omicron now represents over 95% of new virus cases
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 10, 2022, 05:24:03 PM
I just got the friggin'!@*&#^%$ Pfizer shot thursday.Do they have to wait on their Wuhan sources to mix up another batch?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 10, 2022, 05:30:58 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on January 10, 2022, 05:08:13 PM
Oh now you all show your cards.Just where in the hell were all you slappies for important matters? Like when I was placing wagers,crunching numbers,factoring %s,calculating stats,historical data,searching handicapping formulas,and a host of other variables to dissect any match up,predict an out come of a game and scrape up a decent profit margin.Thanks for nothing
What, you think I'm going to divulge my proprietary quantitative analysis wagering strategies...

...to you?!...

...for effing FREE?!?!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 10, 2022, 05:46:13 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 10, 2022, 05:03:54 PM
I'm sure Badge would agree with me that if we had a lot more engineers, and far fewer lawyers, in Congress, that the country would be a better place.
For sure!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 10, 2022, 05:46:36 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 10, 2022, 05:16:43 PM
so now Pfizer says they will have an omicron vaccine available by March

why wouldnt any unvaccinated person just wait till March and get the omicron vaccine

Omicron now represents over 95% of new virus cases
Because the CCP Wuhan Virus Design team is already working on the next variant?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 10, 2022, 05:46:58 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 10, 2022, 05:04:59 PM
Amen, brutha.
Yes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 10, 2022, 05:49:09 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 10, 2022, 05:46:36 PM
Because the CCP Wuhan Virus Design team is already working on the next variant?
damn I need a program 

its hard to keep up with this
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on January 10, 2022, 06:26:38 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 10, 2022, 05:01:12 PM
and yet she is in a position of control over our lives which is kinda scary

when I think of the Supreme Court I dont think in terms of party affiliation until now

we need to investigate what other stupid things they believe
I have some news about the thousands of mostly old people in charge of our legal system, as well as several decades of Supreme Court justices, and it’s going to make you sad. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on January 10, 2022, 06:33:10 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 10, 2022, 05:03:54 PM
I'm sure Badge would agree with me that if we had a lot more engineers, and far fewer lawyers, in Congress, that the country would be a better place.
Not that I’m happy with the status quo, but I’ve also seen a lot of engineers very confidently interpret the law incredibly badly.

We need people with different expertise to go along with that. Different mindsets, more wisdom, etc. But in the place where they make … laws, I’d like some people with expertise in law and the legal system. (preferably using the expertise better than the current batch of assholes)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 10, 2022, 07:05:00 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on January 10, 2022, 06:26:38 PM
I have some news about the thousands of mostly old people in charge of our legal system, as well as several decades of Supreme Court justices, and it’s going to make you sad.
Sure, as we pontificate with each other atop the internet, which I've been told isn't like a truck, it's more a series of tubes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Series_of_tubes)...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 10, 2022, 07:13:59 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 10, 2022, 05:30:58 PM
What, you think I'm going to divulge my proprietary quantitative analysis wagering strategies...

...to you?!...

...for effing FREE?!?!
One day when i feel like typing a lot more I'll have to tell the story of an exchange i had with one of those handicapping "Services" i.e. Touts who were dangling their free pick hotline plays.They use to have their shows on Sat/Sun mornings during football season.Snake oil and used car salesmen would cringe at their pitches
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 10, 2022, 07:21:42 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 10, 2022, 07:05:00 PM
Sure, as we pontificate with each other atop the internet, which I've been told isn't like a truck, it's more a series of tubes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Series_of_tubes)...
That guy was one of those lawyers that bab seems so enamored of having in office.  He certainly understands the internet better than any engineer ever could...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 10, 2022, 08:13:58 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 10, 2022, 07:05:00 PM
it's more a series of tubes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Series_of_tubes)...
The Tubes progressive,alt,cross dressing punk rock band that actually had good music

-She's a Beauty                    https://youtu.be/mQ_k_VG6Syc
-Prime Time                          https://youtu.be/Teg1EpDvj74
-Talk to you Later                  https://youtu.be/H-rEVVAw3-0
-What Do you want from Life  https://youtu.be/Fgjfi1DU1mQ
-White Punks on Dope          https://youtu.be/EK5eHEsLuNI
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 10, 2022, 08:44:52 PM
I had planned to get the boost this afternoon, but my meetings ran long

perhaps I'll just wait a couple months

________________________

not to beat a dead horse, but..........

a supreme court justice should be intelligent enough to keep their mouth shut unless they have a good idea of what they're talkin about on an issue like this

you know, just a bit more intelligent than me

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 10, 2022, 10:19:36 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 10, 2022, 07:05:00 PM
Sure, as we pontificate with each other atop the internet, which I've been told isn't like a truck, it's more a series of tubes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Series_of_tubes)...
So like a Habittrail then?


(https://i.imgur.com/jnYgbPt.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 10, 2022, 11:22:42 PM
I was a big fan of The Tubes in the 80s.  Still am.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 10, 2022, 11:26:02 PM
me too
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 10, 2022, 11:29:46 PM
Old as dirt, we are.


UTee...

How are you doing? 

I know you lost a good buddy over the weekend.

(https://i.imgur.com/EwIj2r6.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 11, 2022, 01:57:32 AM
He was like a brother to me.  I'm gonna miss him.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on January 11, 2022, 08:46:59 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 11, 2022, 01:57:32 AM
He was like a brother to me.  I'm gonna miss him.
You knew Saget?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 11, 2022, 09:06:40 AM
60 - people who know 94 say he looks like John Stamos,prolly more like Ray Nitchke
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 11, 2022, 09:22:20 AM
Quote from: Kris60 on January 11, 2022, 08:46:59 AM
You knew Saget?
That's him, kissing his brother on stage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 11, 2022, 09:33:17 AM
at least he doesn't look like Lombardi
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 11, 2022, 09:34:33 AM
I lost a beauty Pageant to Lombardi and Nitchke
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 11, 2022, 09:59:18 AM
Main talent competition was eating a sammich over the sink?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on January 11, 2022, 10:23:00 AM
Nurse Practitioner at my wife’s clinic just caught COVID for the third time. Vaxxed and boosted.  I think she’s going for the record.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 11, 2022, 10:30:46 AM
👀
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 11, 2022, 12:32:24 PM
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/COVID-San-Francisco-staff-shortage-UCSF-16758335.php


Quote
After reviewing the charts of every COVID-positive patient at UCSF hospitals on Jan. 4, Dr. Jeanne Noble (https://twitter.com/JeanneNoble18?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author), an associate professor of emergency medicine at UCSF, determined that 70% of them were in the hospital for other reasons.

"The real COVID crisis that our hospitals are facing is a severe staffing shortage that is compromising the quality of our care," Noble said Friday, shortly before the policy change was announced. 

"The crisis from the Omicron peak is not generated by serious COVID illness in regions with highly vaxxed populations," Noble wrote in an email to SFGATE. "The crisis we are suffering in the Bay Area is largely driven by disruptive COVID policies that encourage asymptomatic testing and subsequent quarantines. … The vast majority of COVID-plus patients I take care of need no medical care and are quickly discharged home with reassurance."



Quote
Head of COVID response for UCSF's ER dept.: 'I have not intubated a single COVID patient during this Omicron surge'


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on January 11, 2022, 12:40:38 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 11, 2022, 09:22:20 AM
That's him, kissing his brother on stage.
Lmao
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 11, 2022, 12:54:15 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on January 11, 2022, 12:40:38 PM
Lmao
Some of the guys around here have a long-standing joke that I look like John Stamos.  I'll accept it as a compliment because that dude is hot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 11, 2022, 01:05:39 PM
Nobody is saying you're hot, amigo.

Not terrible, but it's been 15 years since I've seen ya.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 11, 2022, 01:08:29 PM
I've gotten better with age, of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 11, 2022, 01:20:04 PM
So have my gym shoes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 11, 2022, 02:47:22 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 11, 2022, 12:32:24 PM
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/COVID-San-Francisco-staff-shortage-UCSF-16758335.php





I wanted to get back to this, no that I've had a chance to read it.

The easy take here is that this has become a manufactured crisis, and it's been happening for some time now.

How about we just let everyone move on with life, while at the same time, protecting the most vulnerable as best we can? This involves letting everyone in health care work, mind you, regardless of vax status.

Unreal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 11, 2022, 03:19:14 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 11, 2022, 02:47:22 PM
I wanted to get back to this, no that I've had a chance to read it.

The easy take here is that this has become a manufactured crisis, and it's been happening for some time now.

How about we just let everyone move on with life, while at the same time, protecting the most vulnerable as best we can? This involves letting everyone in health care work, mind you, regardless of vax status.

Unreal.
Much of the false narrative has unraveled. 

as you suggest-time for common sense to prevail over politics and control. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 11, 2022, 03:55:06 PM
had over 1.3 millions new cases yesterday

part of this is a "catch up" from the weekend from states that didnt report

we probably wont reach a peak for another 2 to 3 weeks so buckle up its gonna get a little rough

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 11, 2022, 04:32:54 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 11, 2022, 02:47:22 PM
I wanted to get back to this, no that I've had a chance to read it.

The easy take here is that this has become a manufactured crisis, and it's been happening for some time now.

How about we just let everyone move on with life, while at the same time, protecting the most vulnerable as best we can? This involves letting everyone in health care work, mind you, regardless of vax status.

Unreal.
Yup.  Exactly why I (and you and many others on this message board) have been clamoring for smart public health policy based on sound science.

The frustrating thing is that it's largely the same crew that initially (and correctly) pushed the "Follow The Science" mantra, that are now ignoring it.  They became so focused on COVID Zero that they can't adapt their views as more and better data come in.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 11, 2022, 06:04:34 PM
Shit, even New Zealand finally woke up and realized zero Covid is impossible.

Time to teach the kids, go to work, and get on it. Enough with the mask shit too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 11, 2022, 06:05:58 PM
Speaking of masks... Y'all need to get these. Washable, and more important, you can BREATHE!!

UnMask Face Masks | Breathe With Us! (getunmask.com) (https://www.getunmask.com/)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 11, 2022, 06:11:52 PM
Some updates:

South Africa



UK


USA






Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 11, 2022, 06:33:36 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 11, 2022, 06:05:58 PM
Speaking of masks... Y'all need to get these. Washable, and more important, you can BREATHE!!

UnMask Face Masks | Breathe With Us! (getunmask.com) (https://www.getunmask.com/)


If I had to wear a mask for something I'd definitely consider it.

As it is, I rarely wear a mask.  Just whenever I'm ducking into a store or government building which has a sign saying it's required.  And that happens about .1% of the time these days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 12, 2022, 04:56:34 AM
Should we treat Covid like the flu? Europe is starting to think so (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/12/should-we-treat-covid-like-the-flu-europe-is-starting-to-think-so.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 12, 2022, 09:12:48 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 11, 2022, 06:33:36 PM
If I had to wear a mask for something I'd definitely consider it.

As it is, I rarely wear a mask.  Just whenever I'm ducking into a store or government building which has a sign saying it's required.  And that happens about .1% of the time these days.
We travel a lot so these things are a breath of fresh air.

Travelling today, in fact. Finally get to go home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 12, 2022, 09:40:27 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 12, 2022, 04:56:34 AM
Should we treat Covid like the flu? Europe is starting to think so (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/12/should-we-treat-covid-like-the-flu-europe-is-starting-to-think-so.html)
the fact that over 95% of new cases is omicron points to yes as soon as the current onset spikes and comes down

which will start in 2 to 3 weeks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 12, 2022, 09:49:00 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 12, 2022, 09:12:48 AM
We travel a lot so these things are a breath of fresh air.

Travelling today, in fact. Finally get to go home.

I hate air travel even under the best of circumstances.

But, we'll be flying down to Playa del Carmen this summer.  I suppose I'll deal with whatever travel looks like then, as it happens.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 12, 2022, 09:50:50 AM
I did not find air travel to be that bad the last four trips I took.  ATL was really crowded though relative to "normal".  I just paid for our Baltic cruise in May, so I guess we're going for real.  I hope it's in a "window".
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 12, 2022, 09:51:56 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 12, 2022, 09:49:00 AM
I hate air travel even under the best of circumstances.

But, we'll be flying down to Playa del Carmen this summer.  I suppose I'll deal with whatever travel looks like then, as it happens.
I've never looked more forward to a plane ride as I am today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 12, 2022, 09:54:35 AM
Joe Biden: Covid vaccination in US will not be mandatory - BBC News (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55193939)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 12, 2022, 09:57:10 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 12, 2022, 09:50:50 AM
I did not find air travel to be that bad the last four trips I took.  ATL was really crowded though relative to "normal".  I just paid for our Baltic cruise in May, so I guess we're going for real.  I hope it's in a "window".
Yeah we were supposed to go to Europe this summer (and last summer, and the summer before that) but I don't even want to bother with attempting to time the windows.  So much easier to get from Texas to Mexico, so that's what we're doing this year.


Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 12, 2022, 09:51:56 AM
I've never looked more forward to a plane ride as I am today.

I hear ya, brother.  Congrats on getting home and out of that Chicago winter. ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 12, 2022, 09:58:54 AM
Been a long-ass time since I've had chapped lips. It's to the point that they are bleeding.

Nothing helps.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 12, 2022, 09:59:23 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 12, 2022, 09:54:35 AM
Joe Biden: Covid vaccination in US will not be mandatory - BBC News (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55193939)
Shrug.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on January 12, 2022, 09:59:53 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 12, 2022, 09:50:50 AM
I did not find air travel to be that bad the last four trips I took.  ATL was really crowded though relative to "normal".  I just paid for our Baltic cruise in May, so I guess we're going for real.  I hope it's in a "window".
Cancelled my Northern European Cruise for May.  Not going to get over there and find places are closed, travel everywhere with a mask, etc. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 12, 2022, 10:00:57 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 12, 2022, 09:58:54 AM
Been a long-ass time since I've had chapped lips. It's to the point that they are bleeding.

Nothing helps.
A few days in the cold, dry mountain air in New Mexico tore my lips up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 12, 2022, 10:01:06 AM
Highlights

mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine boosters induce neutralizing immunity against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant: Cell (https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(21)01496-3)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 12, 2022, 10:01:50 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 12, 2022, 09:54:35 AM
Joe Biden: Covid vaccination in US will not be mandatory - BBC News (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55193939)
I just realized that this was from December 2020. Now I get it. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 12, 2022, 10:02:30 AM
We're eight months into this pandemic, and Donald Trump still doesn't have a plan to get this virus under control.

I do.


— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) October 16, 2020 (https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1316894374500962305?ref_src=twsrc^tfw)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 12, 2022, 10:03:08 AM
President Biden and the White House Covid-19 task force said during a conference call with the National Governors Association that states would have to "solve" the pandemic "at the state level."

"Look, there is no federal solution. This gets solved at the state level," he said. "And then ultimately gets down to where the rubber meets the road, and that's where the patient is in need of help or preventing the need for help."

"If you need something, say something," the president told governors on the call Monday.



December 27, 2021
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 12, 2022, 10:04:09 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 12, 2022, 10:03:08 AM
President Biden and the White House Covid-19 task force said during a conference call with the National Governors Association that states would have to "solve" the pandemic "at the state level."

"Look, there is no federal solution. This gets solved at the state level," he said. "And then ultimately gets down to where the rubber meets the road, and that's where the patient is in need of help or preventing the need for help."

"If you need something, say something," the president told governors on the call Monday.



December 27, 2021
I wonder where he got THAT idea.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 12, 2022, 10:05:54 AM
Quote from: Riffraft on January 12, 2022, 09:59:53 AM
Cancelled my Northern European Cruise for May.  Not going to get over there and find places are closed, travel everywhere with a mask, etc.
I cancelled last year, I decided we'd go this year no matter what (almost).  My wife agrees, we have to go on with our lives.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 12, 2022, 10:10:00 AM
Can't even be approached at the state level.  This is a municipal issue if ever there was one.  Local treatment of local cases, local changes to public health policy as needed, when the stress on local healthcare resources requires it.

I've said before that it's really good we got this trial run on how to handle a pandemic, with only a mildly lethal disease like COVID19. We're really lucky we didn't get hit by something as transmissible as COVID and as lethal as Ebola, for example.

But we'd have to be willing to apply lessons learned and adopt best practices in order to manage the next one better.  And I don't have much faith that we're capable of that.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 12, 2022, 10:15:31 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 12, 2022, 10:01:50 AM
I just realized that this was from December 2020. Now I get it. :)

   (https://media1.tenor.com/images/49f1f37a9eae1705b6ced1b14c2b4928/tenor.gif?itemid=4827080)


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 12, 2022, 10:24:18 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 12, 2022, 10:10:00 AM
Can't even be approached at the state level.  This is a municipal issue if ever there was one.  Local treatment of local cases, local changes to public health policy as needed, when the stress on local healthcare resources requires it.

I've said before that it's really good we got this trial run on how to handle a pandemic, with only a mildly lethal disease like COVID19. We're really lucky we didn't get hit by something as transmissible as COVID and as lethal as Ebola, for example.

But we'd have to be willing to apply lessons learned and adopt best practices in order to manage the next one better.  And I don't have much faith that we're capable of that.


Amen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on January 12, 2022, 10:38:06 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 12, 2022, 10:10:00 AM
But we'd have to be willing to apply lessons learned and adopt best practices in order to manage the next one better.  And I don't have much faith that we're capable of that.
As long as our strain of anti-authority, confirmation-bias seeking obstinance on both sides continues, I don't really have much faith either. 

For better or worse, management relies on a level of blind belief (which we eschew), and a level of complying, which we mostly won't do. In some cases that's good. In this one, it's not the most damaging. With something more lethal, it will be, and we'll just take it until the damage is something that REALLY scares us. And that'll be some damage. 

(This is not to say that anti-authority stances are bad, but they do get in the way of any attempt of coordinated government management)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 12, 2022, 10:40:25 AM
daughter tested positive yesterday

very mild symptoms compared to the Flu we both had over Xmas

we should probably be doing more to combat the flu than Omi
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 12, 2022, 10:58:25 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 12, 2022, 10:40:25 AM
daughter tested positive yesterday

very mild symptoms compared to the Flu we both had over Xmas

we should probably be doing more to combat the flu than Omi
Did y'all get flu shots?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 12, 2022, 11:27:01 AM
no, she hasn't in the past

I have for 10 years or so, but didn't last year or this year

won't make that mistake again
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 12, 2022, 11:27:52 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 12, 2022, 11:27:01 AM
no, she hasn't in the past

I have for 10 years or so, but didn't last year or this year

won't make that mistake again
Maybe we need some government mandates to force you to do so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 12, 2022, 11:29:06 AM
it would obviously save some lives

for a while
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 12, 2022, 11:33:45 AM
We talk about Football Programs having bagmen.I'm sure Fauci,CDC,NIH eagerly wait "Donations" from Big Pharma
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 12, 2022, 12:15:35 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on January 12, 2022, 10:38:06 AM
As long as our strain of anti-authority, confirmation-bias seeking obstinance on both sides continues, I don't really have much faith either.

For better or worse, management relies on a level of blind belief (which we eschew), and a level of complying, which we mostly won't do. In some cases that's good. In this one, it's not the most damaging. With something more lethal, it will be, and we'll just take it until the damage is something that REALLY scares us. And that'll be some damage.

(This is not to say that anti-authority stances are bad, but they do get in the way of any attempt of coordinated government management)
I'd rather we see individual coordinated management.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on January 12, 2022, 12:22:55 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 12, 2022, 12:15:35 PM
I'd rather we see individual coordinated management.
Ehhh, the point stands on that too. Well, individual coordinated means some level of collective coordination and it’ll stand there too. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 12, 2022, 12:27:05 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/gZLeoaq.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 12, 2022, 12:43:30 PM
Reading CFB message boards will drive one bonkers - I'm scratching that off my list
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on January 12, 2022, 01:14:49 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 12, 2022, 12:27:05 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/gZLeoaq.jpg)
This gets even more complicated when “available” reflects what you can seek out. We can only consume so much, and how we consciously or unconsciously choose to consume has a hell of an impact.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 12, 2022, 01:17:37 PM
Yes, I find many ignore or disparage anything that goes against what they want to believe even if it is brought to their attention.

"Oh, CNN/Fox News, all they do is lie."  This is true when they are credibly reporting what is reported elsewhere in something more authoritative.

The inability to deal with "news you don't like" is a real problem because "we" can find news we DO like somewhere.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 12, 2022, 01:19:19 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 12, 2022, 01:17:37 PM
Yes, I find many ignore or disparage anything that goes against what they want to believe even if it is brought to their attention.

"Oh, CNN/Fox News, all they do is lie."  This is true when they are credibly reporting what is reported elsewhere in something more authoritative.

The inability to deal with "news you don't like" is a real problem because "we" can find news we DO like somewhere.

The strength of the modern echo chamber in selection of MSM and social media becomes an incontrollable feedback loop.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 12, 2022, 01:31:39 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 12, 2022, 01:19:19 PM
The strength of the modern echo chamber in selection of MSM and social media becomes an incontrollable feedback loop.
The strength of the modern echo chamber in selection of MSM and social media becomes an incontrollable feedback loop.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 12, 2022, 01:33:40 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on January 12, 2022, 01:14:49 PM
This gets even more complicated when “available” reflects what you can seek out. We can only consume so much, and how we consciously or unconsciously choose to consume has a hell of an impact.
It's even worse. It's not about what you can seek out. The algorithms in your news feed, social media feed, etc are tuned for interaction. If you click on a news story, you'll be fed more of those types of headlines. If you engage with certain ideas on social media, you'll see more of those ideas. So it's a self-reinforcing feedback loop.

The way it works is that you simply won't even encounter ideas that you disagree with due to the way that information is specifically curated for you. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on January 12, 2022, 02:03:22 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 12, 2022, 01:33:40 PM
It's even worse. It's not about what you can seek out. The algorithms in your news feed, social media feed, etc are tuned for interaction. If you click on a news story, you'll be fed more of those types of headlines. If you engage with certain ideas on social media, you'll see more of those ideas. So it's a self-reinforcing feedback loop.

The way it works is that you simply won't even encounter ideas that you disagree with due to the way that information is specifically curated for you.
I’m oddly less concerned about this in a lot of quarters.

We’ve hit a point where our brains do this for us, getting offended and ignoring what doesn’t match, glomming onto what does, even if it looks kinda ridiculous. (One thing I’m trying to do more of is seeing something I should nominally agree with given an outlook and saying, no, that’s stupid or badly constructed. Of course, self reflection equates to weakness in the culture war, so that’s another matter).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 12, 2022, 02:09:00 PM
Couple this with a strong effort to paint things as all black or all white and you have a mess.  Fauci is either a saint or a devil (taking money from Pfizer).

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 12, 2022, 02:15:14 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on January 12, 2022, 02:03:22 PM
I’m oddly less concerned about this in a lot of quarters.

We’ve hit a point where our brains do this for us, getting offended and ignoring what doesn’t match, glomming onto what does, even if it looks kinda ridiculous. (One thing I’m trying to do more of is seeing something I should nominally agree with given an outlook and saying, no, that’s stupid or badly constructed. Of course, self reflection equates to weakness in the culture war, so that’s another matter).
Recognizing the existence of confirmation bias, admitting that you yourself are no less likely to fall victim to it than anyone else, and actively trying to expose yourself to viewpoints you disagree with and be more critical of the ones you agree with, is commendable. 

The truth is that we're all affected by confirmation bias. My personal belief is that the admission of that and at least making an effort to fight it is the important part, even if you're not going to be successful 100% of the time. 

My experience is that the people who are willing and able to do this are a small minority. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 12, 2022, 02:16:41 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 12, 2022, 02:15:14 PM
Recognizing the existence of confirmation bias, admitting that you yourself are no less likely to fall victim to it than anyone else, and actively trying to expose yourself to viewpoints you disagree with and be more critical of the ones you agree with, is commendable.

The truth is that we're all affected by confirmation bias. My personal belief is that the admission of that and at least making an effort to fight it is the important part, even if you're not going to be successful 100% of the time.

My experience is that the people who are willing and able to do this are a small minority.

I'm completely rational, open-minded, and impartial in everything I do and think-- for me confirmation bias is impossible.  That's what I'm willing to admit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 12, 2022, 02:32:22 PM
We actually had training on confirmation bias, examples of, how to combat it, when you really should take a second look (nearly always).  It was pretty good training I thought, I recall it today, mostly.  The examples were enlightening as I could see doing the same things.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 12, 2022, 02:35:22 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 12, 2022, 02:16:41 PM
I'm completely rational, open-minded, and impartial in everything I do and think-- for me confirmation bias is impossible.  That's what I'm willing to admit.
I'm similar. If the Google are following me around they will be very confused. I look at everything and anywhere.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 12, 2022, 02:39:00 PM
I sometimes google something bizarre to throw it off and get ads in FB for the bizarre knitting needles or whatnot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 12, 2022, 03:27:08 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 12, 2022, 02:35:22 PM
I'm similar. If the Google are following me around they will be very confused. I look at everything and anywhere.
Google on my home laptop thinks I live in LA.  I'm not going to fix it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 12, 2022, 03:32:29 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 12, 2022, 03:27:08 PM
Google on my home laptop thinks I live in LA.  I'm not going to fix it.
Do you use VPN?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 12, 2022, 04:36:46 PM
I don't know what that measns.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 12, 2022, 04:57:51 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 12, 2022, 02:39:00 PM
I sometimes google something bizarre to throw it off and get ads in FB for the bizarre knitting needles or whatnot.
Admit it you enjoy the blue hairs and their knitting circles - they're actually very talented
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 12, 2022, 04:58:24 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 12, 2022, 03:27:08 PM
Google on my home laptop thinks I live in LA.  I'm not going to fix it.
Lower Akron?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on January 12, 2022, 05:09:21 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 12, 2022, 04:36:46 PM
I don't know what that measns.
That’s it, now you can be a supreme court justice 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 12, 2022, 06:12:42 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 12, 2022, 04:36:46 PM
I don't know what that measns.
VPN = Virtual Private Network

It's used by some people (such as companies with their employees) to set up a secure network such that remote employees can validate that they are within the network when they use company-approved applications that occur "within the company firewall".

It can also be used to obfuscate your personal computer IP address and network by routing yourself through an intermediary (the VPN), which many people use for some nefarious purposes like pirating movies/etc, such that anyone who tries to figure out who is on the other end of a computer connection will see the VPN's IP address, not the actual user's. 

Your IP address typically also associates to your general location, so if you connect to a website it can use your IP address to try to determine your location. For example, Windows has a weather app in the taskbar. When I'm not connected to my work VPN, it believes I'm in Mission Viejo. When I connect to my work VPN, it assigns me an IP address within the company domain and advertises an IP address based upon company HQ, and thus it suddenly thinks I'm in San Jose, CA and displays the weather there. 

If you had some sort of VPN or something else advertising an LA-based IP address from your home laptop when you go to Google's website, they think you're in LA. So if you pull up Maps, it'll default to a location in the LA area. 

But if you don't know what a VPN is, you're almost assuredly not using one. So I don't know why Google thinks you're in LA. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 12, 2022, 08:45:11 PM
nerd
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 12, 2022, 09:44:16 PM
public schools don't need VPNs

it's public
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 13, 2022, 08:38:28 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 12, 2022, 04:36:46 PM
I don't know what that measns.
How did you teach/work remotely without VPN?

Some other platform? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on January 13, 2022, 09:11:25 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 13, 2022, 08:38:28 AM
How did you teach/work remotely without VPN?

Some other platform?
Perhaps it’s just running in the background and he doesn’t know?

Downside, Badge, you know what this is. So no supreme court spot for you. Senate might be out too. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 13, 2022, 09:41:49 AM
POTUS is out for sure.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 13, 2022, 09:48:04 AM
I would prefer to be in the 4th branch of government, so I could dictate policy from my basement, with no chance of any ramifications. 

Thank for your support.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 13, 2022, 12:34:12 PM
The US is nearly always ready to fight the last war.

The next pandemic could be worse obviously.  And I doubt we manage it any better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 13, 2022, 06:23:13 PM
SCOTUS has stayed enforcement of the Biden/OSHA vaccine mandate:

https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/21a244_hgci.pdf

To be clear, while most in media won't make this distinction, this has NOT decided the issue at SCOTUS of whether or not the vaccine mandate is Constitutional. The issue at hand is whether OSHA is allowed to enforce the mandate while the various legal issues are litigated, and SCOTUS said no... No enforcement of the mandate is permissible until it's actually fully decided.

However, the important part is that the Court in general issued the stay on enforcement partially because they openly stated that the petitioners requesting the stay are likely to prevail. So they definitely made their opinions felt...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on January 13, 2022, 06:40:55 PM
Sadly today I learned of the death of a coworkers dad from COVID. I met the man a time or two.  He was 69. Unsure if he had other health issues or what. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on January 13, 2022, 07:34:17 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 13, 2022, 06:23:13 PM
SCOTUS has stayed enforcement of the Biden/OSHA vaccine mandate:

https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/21a244_hgci.pdf

To be clear, while most in media won't make this distinction, this has NOT decided the issue at SCOTUS of whether or not the vaccine mandate is Constitutional. The issue at hand is whether OSHA is allowed to enforce the mandate while the various legal issues are litigated, and SCOTUS said no... No enforcement of the mandate is permissible until it's actually fully decided.

However, the important part is that the Court in general issued the stay on enforcement partially because they openly stated that the petitioners requesting the stay are likely to prevail. So they definitely made their opinions felt...
Looking at a few of the more serious legal sources I check, sounds like that was mostly expected, just because it was an aggressive reading of the law. 

I had a friend who was explaining how it was scary and wrong. I said I'd check the good lawyers, he said there was one specific source he used. I looked at the source, and was alas sad to realize it was one of those partisan content millers you find. Every headline about how the world is about to be very mean to my side. Disheartening, but not uncommon. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 13, 2022, 07:49:11 PM
Is anyone surprised by this specific ruling?  

Basically saying OSHA was not created by Congress with this type, or level of authority.   

Makes perfect sense.  As does their other ruling. 

Couldn’t care less- but these seem obvious.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 13, 2022, 07:50:50 PM

Quote from: Gigem on January 13, 2022, 06:40:55 PM
Sadly today I learned of the death of a coworkers dad from COVID. I met the man a time or two.  He was 69. Unsure if he had other health issues or what.
Sorry to hear that Gigem. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on January 13, 2022, 08:14:21 PM
Quote from: Gigem on January 13, 2022, 06:40:55 PM
Sadly today I learned of the death of a coworkers dad from COVID. I met the man a time or two.  He was 69. Unsure if he had other health issues or what.
Sorry to hear that. It's a damn tough thing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 13, 2022, 10:25:24 PM
sucks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on January 14, 2022, 09:17:14 AM
Yeah it sucks for my friend. We just went on a hunting trip together a few months ago. His dad had a mechanic shop by my house. I met him a few times. 

I don’t know if he was vaccinated or not and I don’t know a nice way to ask. My friend, Cliff, is more like a work acquaintance not really a friend. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 14, 2022, 09:42:06 AM
New study says air knocks down COVID-19 infection rate by 90 percent | TheHill (https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/589262-new-study-says-air-knocks-down-covid-19)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on January 14, 2022, 09:55:04 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 14, 2022, 09:42:06 AM
New study says air knocks down COVID-19 infection rate by 90 percent | TheHill (https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/589262-new-study-says-air-knocks-down-covid-19)
https://youtu.be/i6WaEcv9sdw

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 14, 2022, 10:23:09 AM
I dont think thats the video you meant to show
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on January 14, 2022, 02:35:11 PM
So my family just got back from Italy. COVID-related thoughts:

-We were wearing the fairly lightweight surgery masks on the flight from Detroit, across Schiphol Airport, and the flight to Rome. However, once we got to the station to take the DaVinci Express into Termini, one of the clerks told us to dump the cloth masks and put on the N95, or the European equivalent thereof.

-Whatever the motivation (we figured it was because Italy got smacked right out of the gate with COVID), the Italians are not messing around. Nightclubs closed, N95 masks everywhere, Green Passes and/or proof of vaccination needed everywhere, temperature checks going into any attraction of substance, and everyone asking for said proof of vaccination everywhere, and not afraid to show you out if you don't have it. Fortunately, the places we went all recognized our American vaccination cards, the pictures of which we carried on our phones. 

-Not only was everyone wearing masks inside, but everywhere outside too. EVERYWHERE.


-There may have been fewer masks outside of Rome, but the Italian definition of "fewer masks" is VERY different than the American definition of "fewer masks". In Italy, it was maybe 1 person in 20 that wasn't wearing an N95 outside. The American definition is 1 person in 20 wearing them. Especially at a Culvers in southern Wisconsin.

-As we were leaving, it was announced that the Super Green Pass was only going to be good if your last shot was less than 4 months ago. 

Very different outlook on things. I'll have other thoughts on the trip on another thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 14, 2022, 02:58:03 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on January 14, 2022, 02:35:11 PM
So my family just got back from Italy. COVID-related thoughts:

-We were wearing the fairly lightweight surgery masks on the flight from Detroit, across Schiphol Airport, and the flight to Rome. However, once we got to the station to take the DaVinci Express into Termini, one of the clerks told us to dump the cloth masks and put on the N95, or the European equivalent thereof.

-Whatever the motivation (we figured it was because Italy got smacked right out of the gate with COVID), the Italians are not messing around. Nightclubs closed, N95 masks everywhere, Green Passes and/or proof of vaccination needed everywhere, temperature checks going into any attraction of substance, and everyone asking for said proof of vaccination everywhere, and not afraid to show you out if you don't have it. Fortunately, the places we went all recognized our American vaccination cards, the pictures of which we carried on our phones.

-Not only was everyone wearing masks inside, but everywhere outside too. EVERYWHERE.


-There may have been fewer masks outside of Rome, but the Italian definition of "fewer masks" is VERY different than the American definition of "fewer masks". In Italy, it was maybe 1 person in 20 that wasn't wearing an N95 outside. The American definition is 1 person in 20 wearing them. Especially at a Culvers in southern Wisconsin.

-As we were leaving, it was announced that the Super Green Pass was only going to be good if your last shot was less than 4 months ago.

Very different outlook on things. I'll have other thoughts on the trip on another thread.

all that is great but it wont matter against omicron

not sure why governments bury their heads in the sand and refuse to admit with omicron its a different ballgame
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 14, 2022, 05:00:43 PM
Italy is currently seeing a massive spike, presumably from Omicron.

However, their case numbers aren't as high per million in population, as many of their European neighbors including France, Spain, Monaco, and the UK.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 14, 2022, 08:59:50 PM
apparently Italy has a different message from leadership and the media
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on January 14, 2022, 09:03:04 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 14, 2022, 02:58:03 PM
all that is great but it wont matter against omicron

not sure why governments bury their heads in the sand and refuse to admit with omicron its a different ballgame
Without going into all the gory details, I can assure you that we are well aware that omicron DGAF.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 14, 2022, 09:14:19 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on January 14, 2022, 09:03:04 PM
Without going into all the gory details, I can assure you that we are well aware that omicron DGAF.
then ya got to ask 

why the f**k does the government do what it does

cause it looks like they dont know or dont care
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 14, 2022, 09:48:43 PM
quite a bit of both
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on January 14, 2022, 10:54:12 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 14, 2022, 09:14:19 PM
then ya got to ask

why the f**k does the government do what it does

cause it looks like they dont know or dont care
Because they're too busy fighting the last war. See Reid, R.

It's a really crappy situation: Met Council is testing type and quantity of viral material in Twin Cities effluent. 

https://twitter.com/dhmontgomery/status/1482042823482433542?t=wxy2YEF1XiatE1NHcstqaw&s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 14, 2022, 11:05:19 PM
wa scheduled to be at mystic Lake casino for meetings last week

Changed to virtual at the last couple daze

fine with me, hopefully saved a life or three

instead, went to Sioux Falls and stayed in a VRBO downtown with the team of about 25

so far, no issues

fingers crossed

attending a hockey game tomorrow night with a larger team in Sioux Falls - company Xmas party

I could easily back out, but..... I'm a sucker for free booze and food
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 15, 2022, 11:27:08 AM
I'm thinking we have peaked down here, as far as case numbers go.

(https://i.imgur.com/KitPhNm.png)

Not sure about deaths yet, but the data doesn't look terrible at this point. I have taken notice that the case mortality rate is dropping weekly, which is a good reference point. It's at 1.3 percent now.

(https://i.imgur.com/qE35QTv.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 15, 2022, 11:40:36 AM
I thought/hoped Germany had peaked and suddenly they are blowing up higher than ever.

I think Omicron is going to snag everyone, and then so will Omega, etc.  I've been isolating this past week so I reduce my risk of missing baseball.  I may get it at Camp, but the symptoms won't manifest for a few days I hope.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 15, 2022, 11:44:57 AM
You'll enjoy things down here.

Where are you staying? North Port?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 15, 2022, 11:51:35 AM
North Port Hampton Inn.  The single players stay at the facility which I'm told is a hilarious, but late night, event.  I go to bed pretty early, the baseball is pretty tiring for me even though I'm in decent shape, I'm not 40.

There is an event/dinner each evening and they bring lunch to the clubhouse, and there is a Kangaroo Court which is very funny.  Sid Bream is His Honor.

We're driving to Ocala Monday and staying in St. Pete Beach on the way back three nights.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 15, 2022, 11:57:34 AM
Well, if you find any time, I'm 45 minutes from North Port. Can't do much right now with this broken leg, but I drink Scotch and stuff.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 15, 2022, 11:59:27 AM
The days are very full, I'm exhausted by 9 PM.  I get up at 6 and grab a banana and head to the club house and dress.  We take BP and the court and whatever else and then play two 7 inning games in the afternoon.  Then dinner/event time.  I'm not complaining.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 15, 2022, 12:08:28 PM
Not sure if you've been or not, but Sarasota is a fun place to stay. St. Armand's is great for food, drink and shopping.

I prefer visiting there, over St. Pete Beach, to be very honest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 15, 2022, 12:12:33 PM
I agree, I was wanting to get a bit further north.  My wife likes being "on the beach".  I got a Hilton at SPB with points.

It's actually Clearwater Beach.  

Hilton Clearwater Beach Resort & Spa (https://www.hilton.com/en/hotels/piecbhf-hilton-clearwater-beach-resort-and-spa/?WT.mc_id=zAL0WW1MB2OLE3ResConf4MO1086x_ResConf__Aug5Header_HotelName_6MULTIBR7EN8i82621&mi_u=1502562410)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on January 15, 2022, 12:13:17 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 15, 2022, 11:57:34 AM
Well, if you find any time, I'm 45 minutes from North Port. Can't do much right now with this broken leg, but I drink Scotch and stuff.
I somehow missed this happened, or didn’t remember it, and I’m sorry my friend. I hope you’re healing up OK
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 15, 2022, 12:22:46 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 15, 2022, 12:12:33 PM
I agree, I was wanting to get a bit further north.  My wife likes being "on the beach".  I got a Hilton at SPB with points.

It's actually Clearwater Beach. 

Hilton Clearwater Beach Resort & Spa (https://www.hilton.com/en/hotels/piecbhf-hilton-clearwater-beach-resort-and-spa/?WT.mc_id=zAL0WW1MB2OLE3ResConf4MO1086x_ResConf__Aug5Header_HotelName_6MULTIBR7EN8i82621&mi_u=1502562410)
I've stayed there. Nice place. There is a place nearby called Cooters. Good place to eat. Crabby's too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 15, 2022, 12:23:59 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on January 15, 2022, 12:13:17 PM
I somehow missed this happened, or didn’t remember it, and I’m sorry my friend. I hope you’re healing up OK
Broke it on Christmas Day, and had surgery 9 days later. Not a good time of year to be stuck in the Chicago area.

My body has more titanium in it now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on January 15, 2022, 12:38:22 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 15, 2022, 12:23:59 PM
Broke it on Christmas Day, and had surgery 9 days later. Not a good time of year to be stuck in the Chicago area.

My body has more titanium in it now.
Well, when you're more machine than man, you can get an attachment where instead of taking the boat out, you will be the boat you take out. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 15, 2022, 12:41:04 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 15, 2022, 12:23:59 PM
Broke it on Christmas Day, and had surgery 9 days later. Not a good time of year to be stuck in the Chicago area.

My body has more titanium in it now.
so I guess you have to almost have a Presidential proclamation to go through the medal detectors at the airport

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 15, 2022, 12:44:19 PM
Medals should be pretty easy to detect, especially if you have a bunch of them:


(https://i.imgur.com/5WQmoF3.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 15, 2022, 12:46:22 PM
My wife has both hips redone and gets through with a few seconds of extra stuff.  I didn't think titanium would show up on metal detectors.

Airport Metal Detectors vs. Body Metal | Direct Orthopedic Care (directorthocare.com) (https://www.directorthocare.com/airport-metal-detectors-vs-body-metal/)

If you have a hip replacement (https://www.verywellhealth.com/considering-hip-replacement-surgery-2549565), knee replacement (https://www.verywellhealth.com/considering-knee-replacement-surgery-2549550), metal plate and screws, metal rod, or one of many other types of orthopedic implants, you may set off the airport metal detector. Alert the TSA officer that you have metal in your body and where it is located, but be prepared to step aside for further screening with a metal-detecting wand. While every country handles security screening a little differently, the same protocol exists: alert the security staff that you have a medical implant and be prepared for another level of screening.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 15, 2022, 12:49:40 PM
small amount of titanium in my right ankle

hasn't set off the detector in the airport yet

a plate and 3 screws
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 15, 2022, 01:00:41 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 15, 2022, 12:41:04 PM
so I guess you have to almost have a Presidential proclamation to go through the medal detectors at the airport


It was certainly NOT easy to get through.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 15, 2022, 01:44:36 PM
Updates...

South Africa: Delta wave saw a consistent plateau in the 350-400 daily deaths range, then post-Delta they were down to maybe 25/day. The Omicron wave has now brought their 7-day MA up fivefold to 125/day. Still only a third that of Delta on relatively similar case numbers, so that's good. Omicron cases peaked about 4 weeks ago, so I don't much more increase in their deaths/day numbers.

UK: Delta wave peaked at ~170/day but the steady-state was more in the 125-150 daily range. Unlike South Africa, the Delta wave never went away. With Omicron, their 7-day MA has reached 267, so roughly 50% higher than any time during Delta. Omicron cases peaked a week ago, so we would expect another week or two of increases in daily deaths.

USA: Delta wave peaked at ~2000/day, with typical rates in the 1200-1800 daily range for most Delta. It dropped a bit prior to Omicron (getting under 1000 for a few days). Omicron deaths have now jumped up from that range to a 7-day MA of 1829. It has not yet reached the Delta peak, but we now appear to be at our peak case rate, so I expect that within the next week the 7-day MA of deaths will eclipse the Delta peaks by a significant margin and expect deaths to rise over the next 3 weeks. 

Contrary to some predictions, it does NOT appear that Omicron leads to cases being way up but deaths going way down. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 15, 2022, 02:18:39 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 15, 2022, 01:44:36 PM
Updates...



USA: Delta wave peaked at ~2000/day, with typical rates in the 1200-1800 daily range for most Delta. It dropped a bit prior to Omicron (getting under 1000 for a few days). Omicron deaths have now jumped up from that range to a 7-day MA of 1829. It has not yet reached the Delta peak, but we now appear to be at our peak case rate, so I expect that within the next week the 7-day MA of deaths will eclipse the Delta peaks by a significant margin and expect deaths to rise over the next 3 weeks.

Contrary to some predictions, it does NOT appear that Omicron leads to cases being way up but deaths going way down.
I still dont think the omicron peak will eclipse the Delta peak by a significant margin and also that deaths will rise for the next 3 weeks

while deaths may not be way down I think weve seen the worst of it and will decrease over the next 3 weeks

we shall see

one of the things we might be seeing is the tendency to call a death an omicron death when the patient really died from something else while having omicron  as has been discussed there is an economic advantage for doing this

even with that I still think what I said earlier will happen
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 15, 2022, 02:25:11 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/bdqkwzm.png)





(https://i.imgur.com/oC2uDtu.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 15, 2022, 09:03:25 PM
Home Covid Test:

1) Open a can of beer and try to smell it.
2) If you can smell the beer, drink it to see if you can taste it.
3) If you can taste it and smell it, this confirms you don't have Covid.

Last night I did the test 19 times, and all were negative. Tonight, I am going to do the test again because this morning I woke up with a headache and feeling like I am coming down with something.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 16, 2022, 12:57:13 PM
This omicron deal is ripping through Florida really quickly. Sounds like we are getting to a peak, or very close to it.

Florida COVID update: State passes 5 million cases — two weeks ago, there were 4 million (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/florida-covid-update-state-passes-5-million-cases-two-weeks-ago-there-were-4-million/ar-AASOHi0?ocid=msedgntp)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on January 16, 2022, 02:08:01 PM
Well, it was inevitable.  Both my kids tested positive this morning.  Wife and I tested negative.  My son has a slight cough but is otherwise feeling fine so far.  He’s been upstairs playing Fortnite online with his buddy from school.

Daughter is a little more symptomatic.  Cough, runny nose, and she started complaining of a headache in the last hour or so.

We’ve went almost two years without anyone in my house getting it, but I kinda think everyone will get it at some point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 16, 2022, 02:10:32 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on January 16, 2022, 02:08:01 PM
Well, it was inevitable.  Both my kids tested positive this morning.  Wife and I tested negative.  My son has a slight cough but is otherwise feeling fine so far.  He’s been upstairs playing Fortnite online with his buddy from school.

Daughter is a little more symptomatic.  Cough, runny nose, and she started complaining of a headache in the last hour or so.

We’ve went almost two years without anyone in my house getting it, but I kinda think everyone will get it at some point.
hope you have been fully vaxed cause youre next
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 16, 2022, 02:15:12 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on January 16, 2022, 02:08:01 PM
Well, it was inevitable.  Both my kids tested positive this morning.  Wife and I tested negative.  My son has a slight cough but is otherwise feeling fine so far.  He’s been upstairs playing Fortnite online with his buddy from school.

Daughter is a little more symptomatic.  Cough, runny nose, and she started complaining of a headache in the last hour or so.

We’ve went almost two years without anyone in my house getting it, but I kinda think everyone will get it at some point.
my daughter that lives in my basement tested positive last week for the first time
luckily I was working out of town and don't think I was exposed
she was asymptomatic and tested negative Saturday morning, so I think I'm in the clear
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 16, 2022, 02:20:09 PM
I thought I might catch it from our French kids or from my air travels, but apparently didn't.  The French family tested positive and then negative a day later when they were about to come here.  We nearly wll will get it at some point.  I just want to get through baseball next week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 16, 2022, 02:36:09 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 16, 2022, 02:20:09 PM
I thought I might catch it from our French kids or from my air travels, but apparently didn't.  The French family tested positive and then negative a day later when they were about to come here.  We nearly wll will get it at some point.  I just want to get through baseball next week.
with all your travels theres no question you will get it

you might already have
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 16, 2022, 02:38:38 PM
6 reasons not to get omicron right now : Shots - Health News : NPR (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2022/01/15/1073075753/get-omicron-symptoms-precautions)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 16, 2022, 02:39:18 PM
"Without health there is no happiness. An attention to health, then, should take the place of every other object." - Thomas Jefferson
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 17, 2022, 04:42:17 PM
My 12yo son tested positive today.   Very mild so far, symptoms started Saturday afternoon with a mild sore throat which actually went away by bedtime, and then Sunday night he started getting a bit of congestion and coughing.  This morning he still had some congestion, and a low-grade fever at 99.3

His energy and appetite are completely unaffected, that's for sure.  He took himself on a 10-mile bike ride yesterday afternoon.  We have him stashed away in self-isolation in his room and he couldn't be happier playing fortnite with all of his buddies online.  We have 7 more days of this after today and he's quite pleased about that.

So far no symptoms from anyone else in the family, hopefully we can stay that way.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 17, 2022, 05:29:02 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 17, 2022, 04:42:17 PM
My 12yo son tested positive today.  Very mild so far, symptoms started Saturday afternoon with a mild sore throat which actually went away by bedtime, and then Sunday night he started getting a bit of congestion and coughing.  This morning he still had some congestion, and a low-grade fever at 99.3

His energy and appetite are completely unaffected, that's for sure.  He took himself on a 10-mile bike ride yesterday afternoon.  We have him stashed away in self-isolation in his room and he couldn't be happier playing fortnite with all of his buddies online.  We have 7 more days of this after today and he's quite pleased about that.

So far no symptoms from anyone else in the family, hopefully we can stay that way. 
I thought it was 5 days or is that just testing positive with no symptoms 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 17, 2022, 05:35:09 PM
Good luck.

You know where I stand... Just get it and be done with it.

Covid party at UTee's palace!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 17, 2022, 05:51:01 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 17, 2022, 05:29:02 PM
I thought it was 5 days or is that just testing positive with no symptoms
School policy is not the same as current CDC guidelines.

Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 17, 2022, 05:35:09 PM
Good luck.

You know where I stand... Just get it and be done with it.

Covid party at UTee's palace!!
I'd rather not have it and have symptoms if possible.  My brother had it last week and it wasn't the end of the world but he had a couple days of body aches and sore throat.  I'd prefer to go without that all things considered.  Couldn't tell you the last time I had a cold or the flu, it's been decades, if ever...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 17, 2022, 06:03:09 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 17, 2022, 05:51:01 PM
I'd rather not have it and have symptoms if possible.  My brother had it last week and it wasn't the end of the world but he had a couple days of body aches and sore throat.  I'd prefer to go without that all things considered.  Couldn't tell you the last time I had a cold or the flu, it's been decades, if ever...
One of my homebrew club / golf buddies just had it...

His take: "I seriously felt like I was dying Monday night. Not fun."

He was double-vaxxed but not boosted. Oh, and he's in his early 30s. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 17, 2022, 09:40:55 PM
now it's serious..................



https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/women-who-stray/202201/male-sexual-dysfunction-and-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR3dE1KSmzczvuTfkvdCddkxymxMEIU8UU5Ll16iWAUzdusxbDUHUmLEcd8 (https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/women-who-stray/202201/male-sexual-dysfunction-and-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR3dE1KSmzczvuTfkvdCddkxymxMEIU8UU5Ll16iWAUzdusxbDUHUmLEcd8)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 17, 2022, 10:26:41 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 17, 2022, 09:40:55 PM
now it's serious..................


  • Multiple physicians and researchers report that COVID-19 infections may result in increased male sexual dysfunction.
  • Post-COVID male sexual dysfunction may result from cardiovascular damage, low testosterone, and psychological symptoms.
  • Health professionals need to screen carefully for male sexual dysfunction and educate patients about this risk.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/women-who-stray/202201/male-sexual-dysfunction-and-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR3dE1KSmzczvuTfkvdCddkxymxMEIU8UU5Ll16iWAUzdusxbDUHUmLEcd8 (https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/women-who-stray/202201/male-sexual-dysfunction-and-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR3dE1KSmzczvuTfkvdCddkxymxMEIU8UU5Ll16iWAUzdusxbDUHUmLEcd8)


yep

better leave the sex to us men who have not had the virus
I know its a sacrifice but hey somebody has to 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 18, 2022, 09:07:20 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 17, 2022, 06:03:09 PM
One of my homebrew club / golf buddies just had it...

His take: "I seriously felt like I was dying Monday night. Not fun."

He was double-vaxxed but not boosted. Oh, and he's in his early 30s.

Still seems so strange to me, how there can be dramatic differences in symptoms and severity from one person to another.  I now know this has always been true of viral infections-- even the flu kills tens of thousands per year-- I just never thought about it, until COVID.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 18, 2022, 09:20:00 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 18, 2022, 09:07:20 AM
Still seems so strange to me, how there can be dramatic differences in symptoms and severity from one person to another.  I now know this has always been true of viral infections-- even the flu kills tens of thousands per year-- I just never thought about it, until COVID.

I share that thought. So many ( overwhelming majority) handle it just fine, yet for those few, it is catastrophic.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2022, 09:20:12 AM
The immune system is very complex, and we're all different.

Blood type plays a part too. 

O rules.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 18, 2022, 09:48:00 AM
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-01-18/china-suspects-covid-19-might-arrive-in-overseas-mail


Quote
China Urges Caution Opening Overseas Mail After Omicron Case


Lulz.  As if the rest of the world hasn't been doing this thing for over two years now, without any indications that MAIL deliveries are a realistic threat vector.

I questioned China's motivation for actually revealing that they had "one" new case of Omicron, when they've been horrifically lying about the impact of COVID within their borders for over two years.

But now I know-- it's solely so they can point the finger elsewhere, again, in a pathetic attempt to spread blame, bullshit, and FUD. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 18, 2022, 10:04:42 AM
HONG KONG (AP) — Hong Kong authorities said Tuesday that they will kill about 2,000 small animals, including hamsters, after several tested positive for the coronavirus at a pet store where an employee was also infected.

The city will also stop the sale of hamsters and the import of small mammals, according to officials from the Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department. The pet shop employee tested positive for the delta variant on Monday, and several hamsters imported from the Netherlands at the store tested positive as well.

According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, animals do not appear to play a significant role in spreading the coronavirus. But Hong Kong authorities said they are not ruling out transmission between animals and humans.

“We cannot exclude the possibility that the shopkeeper was in fact actually infected from the hamsters,” said Edwin Tsui, a controller at the Centre for Health Protection.

“If you own a hamster, you should keep your hamsters at home, do not take them out,” department director Leung Siu-fai said at a news conference. “All pet owners should observe good personal hygiene, and after you have been in contact with animals and their food, you should wash your hands.”

“Do not kiss your pets,” he added.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2022, 10:23:24 AM
Bullshit.

They are killing the hamsters to eat them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 18, 2022, 10:25:05 AM
Quick see if amazon has hamster masks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 18, 2022, 10:26:13 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2022, 10:23:24 AM
Bullshit.

They are killing the hamsters to eat them.
yep their restaurants are gonna take a hit
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 18, 2022, 10:33:52 AM
eating them might be more transmissible than kissing them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2022, 10:34:40 AM
212 degrees. 

Done.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 18, 2022, 10:40:34 AM
crispy critter
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on January 18, 2022, 12:37:10 PM
utee,

Sorry to hear about your son, I hope he gets better soon. I think my youngest probably has the same thing as he has shown some symptoms as well. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 18, 2022, 01:48:56 PM
Every home in the U.S. is eligible to order #44 free at-⁠home COVID-⁠19 tests. The tests are completely free. Orders will usually ship in 7-12 days.

Order your tests now so you have them when you need them.


https://www.covidtests.gov/?fbclid=IwAR0uyFfHptiXIVmhvO-zXEjFevciAmBnrvu-bHGy_uDejRfbzvCewWBSD8k (https://www.covidtests.gov/?fbclid=IwAR0uyFfHptiXIVmhvO-zXEjFevciAmBnrvu-bHGy_uDejRfbzvCewWBSD8k)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2022, 02:04:41 PM
Waste of money. The at-home tests do not detect omicron very well. 

They work well with Delta and Alpha, however.

First-hand knowledge leads me to this opinion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 18, 2022, 02:11:54 PM
wasting money has been the theme since this thing hit

I assume that the more money that gets stirred up worldwide, the more money that finds it's way to China
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 18, 2022, 03:08:09 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2022, 02:04:41 PM
Waste of money. The at-home tests do not detect omicron very well.

They work well with Delta and Alpha, however.

First-hand knowledge leads me to this opinion.
Yup, we used our final at-home test for my son on Monday, came back negative.  Rapid-test at the Doc's an hour later, came back positive.

Since Omicron is by far the most common strain now, unless/until they recalibrate the at-home tests to detect it,  they're useless.
Quote from: Gigem on January 18, 2022, 12:37:10 PM
utee,

Sorry to hear about your son, I hope he gets better soon. I think my youngest probably has the same thing as he has shown some symptoms as well.

Thanks amigo.  He's doing fine, basically symptom-free as of this afternoon, but we'll be forced by the school board to NOT follow the science and keep him home an extra week. 

I hope your kiddo is OK too!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on January 19, 2022, 09:03:32 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2022, 02:04:41 PM
Waste of money. The at-home tests do not detect omicron very well.

They work well with Delta and Alpha, however.

First-hand knowledge leads me to this opinion.
Yep.  I’ve had doctors and pharmacists tell me the same thing.  I became symptomatic Monday night and I’ve done three at home tests since then that have all came back negative, but my wife banished me to the upstairs with the kids anyway.  I might go get a send off test, I might not.  Right now, I’m working under the assumption I have COVID.

My daughter had a rough couple of days but seemed to feel better yesterday.  Son is just treating like a vacation.  We may never get the kids back on schedule.  Between Christmas break, snow days, and COVID they have been in school 7 days since December 17.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on January 19, 2022, 09:10:29 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2022, 02:04:41 PM
Waste of money. The at-home tests do not detect omicron very well.

They work well with Delta and Alpha, however.

First-hand knowledge leads me to this opinion.
Now, now, they do allow for a certain hall pass to normalcy, which I assume is a perk for some folks. (That last part makes me think you or someone in the household caught omicron, and if so, hope it's highly mild. Though now that I think about it, I think we need a phrase of less than mild, or slightly more. Like no taste for a month isn't really "mild" but also not really "severe")
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2022, 09:18:50 AM
We had Omicron during the holiday season. No symptoms. Not detected with home test. Detected by PCR test.

We only tested because we were travelling, seeing a lot of people (a couple of un-vaxed) and some older folks and our grandbaby.

A week later, tested negative with a rapid (in order to have surgery).

I'm not a proponent of asymptomatic testing, unless you have been in situations of risk. It's pointless otherwise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 19, 2022, 09:48:57 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on January 19, 2022, 09:10:29 AM
Now, now, they do allow for a certain hall pass to normalcy, which I assume is a perk for some folks. (That last part makes me think you or someone in the household caught omicron, and if so, hope it's highly mild. Though now that I think about it, I think we need a phrase of less than mild, or slightly more. Like no taste for a month isn't really "mild" but also not really "severe")
Fortunately, the loss of taste is apparently less an issue with Omicron compared to previous variants.  My brother, niece, and son never lost any taste or smell. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2022, 10:06:38 AM
I only had a slight fever from Delta, a bit tired, and a little bit of a cough. My wife had no symptoms other than being tired, and did not get tested.

We're done with this thing. Just gonna live life now, without limits.

Natural infections (3 total - 1 after 2 vax, 1 after booster, 1 March 2020), 2 Moderna, 1 Pfizer. 

We're good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on January 19, 2022, 03:12:35 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2022, 10:06:38 AM
We're done with this thing. Just gonna live life now, without limits.
only thing you can do unfortunately, since the vaccines do not work at stopping this virus in it's tracks. doesn't matter if you're vaxxed 37 times and boosted another 27- you're going to catch COVID and you're going to spread it. this thing will not be driven to extinction, as the vaccines we have for it are leaky and do not prevent transmission. it's endemic, it will be with humans forever.

What they need to do is amp the F up production of the monoclonal antibodies. Those things are liquid gold and work like a freaking charm.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 19, 2022, 03:27:44 PM
I'm happy with getting the vaccine to decrease my odds of ending up in the hospital.

Of course, just the normal regimen of 2 doses does that as effectively as 2+booster, according to the most recent UK data.  So the incremental benefit of boosters seems  minimal-to-negligible at this point, that is, according to THE SCIENCE.

I'll be interested to see if we can get any decent data out of the US to follow up on that published data from the UK a couple of weeks ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2022, 03:38:14 PM
The UK has deemed Covid to be over. 

No more mandates, vax passports, masks, nothing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 19, 2022, 03:46:10 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2022, 03:38:14 PM
The UK has deemed Covid to be over.

No more mandates, vax passports, masks, nothing.
COVID never even started in some areas of the US I've been through in the past couple years. :)

Anyway, they appear to be on their downward slope of Omicron and I think they can afford to say that.  We've still got a couple of weeks, to ensure that the hospitalizations/ICU/deaths stay low enough relative to case counts to keep from overrunning our healthcare system, and then I think we'll see at least SOME regions in the USA make the same declaration.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 19, 2022, 04:58:42 PM
The good thing is that the UK is showing the same pattern of decline as South Africa. I was a little bit worried that there was going to be a northern/southern hemisphere component that we hadn't really looked at... South Africa is in the middle of summer while the UK (and the US) are in the middle of winter, so I was concerned we'd have a much different shape to the cases graph.

I think this might be why South Africa's cases never peaked at 3x the rate of any other time in the pandemic. Also why their Delta wave was shorter duration and burned out while the US/UK were more of a slow burn--they were hit in winter heading into spring while the US hit Delta late summer heading into fall. 

Based on the worldometers data, we increasingly look like we've hit our "peak" in cases. Still a couple more days to know 100%, but I think we're over that hump. As I've said already, I think deaths are going to climb over the next 2 weeks (as they did in the UK), but I don't know that they'll be at an unmanageable level for the healthcare system. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on January 20, 2022, 08:33:41 AM

Looks like my county has had 12 deaths so far in 2022.  All were older, most in their 70's/80's.  Not sure how this differs any from last year, but it doesn't seem too bad being next door to the 4th largest metro area in the US.  

The 5th one down is my friends dad.  

(https://i.imgur.com/T7ZqLXI.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on January 20, 2022, 08:50:14 AM
Met Council sanitary sewer data suggests that the peak in the Twin Cities happened ~January 10.

https://twitter.com/dhmontgomery/status/1483491369784070144?s=20

Cases are so backlogged that the daily report of cases are almost a week old.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on January 25, 2022, 07:42:18 AM
Biden’s FDA just pulled EUA for two different companies monoclonal antibodies,  putting a screeching halt on monoclonal antibody shipments. Florida has been forced to shut down their monoclonal treatment sites, because they flat out cannot get them anymore.

This is downright criminal, asinine, and insane. Those f***king things are liquid gold. I had Covid bad and was getting worse by the minute. Did not get any better at all until I got those monoclonals. Bounced back in two days like nothing happened.

This is f***king insane. Biden is an even dumber, bigger piece of shit than I thought. FYI, Pfizer and Moderna are making OVER $1,000 in profit every single SECOND from the Covid vaccines and boosters. PROFIT. Not revenue. Things that make you go hmmmmm.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2022, 07:43:51 AM
Why did they pull them??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on January 25, 2022, 07:47:49 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2022, 07:43:51 AM
Why did they pull them??
They have weaponized medicines and turned everything political.

The stupid piece of shit is trying to make them impossible to get in order to strong arm people into having to take a flawed experimental leaky vaccine that doesn’t work AT ALL at stopping spread or infection.

My pure guess here is that this is all done in order to protect the profits of Pfizer and Moderna who are literally printing money by giving everyone 3-4 shots of their experimental vaccine and are talking about giving people a new booster shot or two every year in perpetuity. That’s not a vaccine. I don’t even know what that is. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2022, 07:48:24 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/UbFfb5C.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/Ud8OXbe.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2022, 07:52:07 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on January 25, 2022, 07:47:49 AM
They have weaponized medicines and turned everything political.

The stupid piece of shit is trying to make them impossible to get in order to strong arm people into having to take a flawed experimental leaky vaccine that doesn’t work AT ALL at stopping spread or infection.
Yeah, that's my thinking too. When our governor started promoting the treatment, people (certain media, liberals) were critical. They all had to STFU because the stuff was working.

The Feds took over the distribution, and poof.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 25, 2022, 09:11:29 AM


Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2022, 07:43:51 AM
Why did they pull them??
Their stated reason, is that they are not effective against Omicron, which is currently the only main variant within the US.

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-limits-use-certain-monoclonal-antibodies-treat-covid-19-due-omicron

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2022, 09:15:33 AM
I'd like to see the clinical trial.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 25, 2022, 09:29:25 AM
Yup, I would too.  The FDA announcement did cite the source for the estimate that 99% is Omicron in the US right now.  You'd think they'd also cite their source for the other piece of critical data that is necessary in order to make this case...

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 25, 2022, 09:43:14 AM
Unless they can show some risks in their “clinical trials“ you have to assume this is purely political.

The clinics have been wildly popular here in Florida and broadly discussed as very successful.

As MDot stated- weaponized. 

This is all so screwed up.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2022, 09:59:17 AM
This is a very good read.

How do death rates from COVID-19 differ between people who are vaccinated and those who are not? - Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccination)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 25, 2022, 10:10:41 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 25, 2022, 09:11:29 AM
Their stated reason, is that they are not effective against Omicron, which is currently the only main variant within the US.
hah, neither is the vaccine.
Are they going to pull the vaccine?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on January 25, 2022, 10:13:25 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 25, 2022, 09:11:29 AM
Their stated reason, is that they are not effective against Omicron, which is currently the only main variant within the US.

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-limits-use-certain-monoclonal-antibodies-treat-covid-19-due-omicron
Then stated reason is bullshit. Delta didn’t just disappear, it’s still around, and I just had it few weeks back. And those monoclonals saved my ass. 

If that is the stated reason then they need to pull the vaccine, as it does not work AT ALL against Omicron. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 25, 2022, 10:13:37 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 25, 2022, 10:10:41 AM
hah, neither is the vaccine.
Are they going to pull the vaccine?
Post of the month!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 25, 2022, 10:27:30 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2022, 09:59:17 AM
This is a very good read.

How do death rates from COVID-19 differ between people who are vaccinated and those who are not? - Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccination)
Not that this is scientific, but i was just standing in line @ a gas station.An older guy was talking to others in line(we were all masked),he stated in the last 2 yrs he's lost 3 family members and one good friend and all had been vaxed and boostered. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 25, 2022, 10:29:53 AM
The study found that those who do not drink at all were more likely to get COVID-19 while those who drink liquor had no more or less of a chance of contracting the virus. But the key findings were that those who drank 14 glasses of red wine or fewer per week were 10 to 17% less likely to get COVID-19. The same number of glasses of fortified wine reduced the risk by 12%. Those who drank white wine or Champagne were up to 8% less likely to get the virus. However, it is vital to remember that these figures were reported as correlative patterns, rather than the direct effect of alcohol on COVID-19.

Read More: https://www.tastingtable.com/745713/new-study-reveals-the-relationship-between-drinking-wine-and-covid/?utm_campaign=clip


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 25, 2022, 10:40:14 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 25, 2022, 10:29:53 AM
The study found that those who do not drink at all were more likely to get COVID-19 while those who drink liquor had no more or less of a chance of contracting the virus.
You'll never convince me Mr Beam's Elixir doesn't work
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 25, 2022, 10:40:52 AM
you need a clinical trial
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 25, 2022, 10:58:21 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 25, 2022, 10:10:41 AM
hah, neither is the vaccine.
Are they going to pull the vaccine?
Quote from: Mdot21 on January 25, 2022, 10:13:25 AM
Then stated reason is bullshit. Delta didn’t just disappear, it’s still around, and I just had it few weeks back. And those monoclonals saved my ass.

If that is the stated reason then they need to pull the vaccine, as it does not work AT ALL against Omicron.
I'd say the vaccine is doing a bang-up job against Omicron. 

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccination

Won't necessarily stop you from getting infected, but it'll keep you out of the morgue. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 25, 2022, 11:02:28 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 25, 2022, 09:29:25 AM
Yup, I would too.  The FDA announcement did cite the source for the estimate that 99% is Omicron in the US right now.  You'd think they'd also cite their source for the other piece of critical data that is necessary in order to make this case...
They fetch that from their ample backsides like the rest of the web
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2022, 11:05:47 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 25, 2022, 10:58:21 AM
I'd say the vaccine is doing a bang-up job against Omicron.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccination

Won't necessarily stop you from getting infected, but it'll keep you out of the morgue.
I posted that article above.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 25, 2022, 11:16:00 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2022, 11:05:47 AM
I posted that article above.
Yeah, sorry Badge, I should probably have credited you directly, as your post was where I saw it. 

However immediately after your post two others said that the vaccine is not effective against Omicron, and with that I disagree. Omicron is so damn transmissible that the vaccine doesn't do very much* to halt infection. But it's very good at reducing hospitalization and death. Which, to be honest, is kinda the important thing, right? 


 * Although most accounts are that the effectiveness against infection is NOT zero, so to say it does nothing is incorrect. It just doesn't do a lot.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2022, 11:32:25 AM
Precisely. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 25, 2022, 12:15:17 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 25, 2022, 11:16:00 AM
Yeah, sorry Badge, I should probably have credited you directly, as your post was where I saw it.

However immediately after your post two others said that the vaccine is not effective against Omicron, and with that I disagree. Omicron is so damn transmissible that the vaccine doesn't do very much* to halt infection. But it's very good at reducing hospitalization and death. Which, to be honest, is kinda the important thing, right?


* Although most accounts are that the effectiveness against infection is NOT zero, so to say it does nothing is incorrect. It just doesn't do a lot.

Exactly, all of this.

I'm certainly glad I have the vaccine so that if (or more likely, when) I get Omicron, I have improved my chances at avoiding serious illness and the hospital.  I am rational and follow science, though, so not everyone will agree with me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on January 25, 2022, 01:18:35 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on January 25, 2022, 10:13:25 AM
Then stated reason is bullshit. Delta didn’t just disappear, it’s still around, and I just had it few weeks back. And those monoclonals saved my ass.

If that is the stated reason then they need to pull the vaccine, as it does not work AT ALL against Omicron.
They didn't pull the vaccine. 

They rolled back the use of it if you have omicron. If you have Delta, you can still get it. Problem solved. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2022, 03:31:25 PM
All the monoclonal sites in Florida are closed right now.

Treatment Locator - Florida Department of Health COVID-19 Outbreak (floridahealthcovid19.gov) (https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/treatments/treatmentlocator/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on January 25, 2022, 05:07:30 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2022, 03:31:25 PM
All the monoclonal sites in Florida are closed right now.

Treatment Locator - Florida Department of Health COVID-19 Outbreak (floridahealthcovid19.gov) (https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/treatments/treatmentlocator/)
It’s possible that FDA press release was amended after the fact, but the gap in meaning from that to the Fla one (along with the tone) are a mite concerning. (I won’t go as far as to say political, but I imagine some with a lower bar for that would).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 25, 2022, 05:18:41 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on January 25, 2022, 05:07:30 PM
It’s possible that FDA press release was amended after the fact, but the gap in meaning from that to the Fla one (along with the tone) are a mite concerning. (I won’t go as far as to say political, but I imagine some with a lower bar for that would).
Is their a different, reasonable explanation?
I would love to hear it - as my bar is low to NOT want it to be purely politics.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on January 25, 2022, 05:37:29 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on January 25, 2022, 05:18:41 PM
Is their a different, reasonable explanation?
I would love to hear it - as my bar is low to NOT want it to be purely politics. 
It’s odd. The first tweet with the announcement says still allowed for Delta. The second says not authorized in states.

Our meandering journey of shit messaging continues unabated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2022, 05:40:45 PM
The Governor is some kind of pissed with this thing. I saw his presser. I've never seen him as angry as this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 25, 2022, 06:14:21 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2022, 05:40:45 PM
The Governor is some kind of pissed with this thing. I saw his presser. I've never seen him as angry as this.
It’s very hard to blame him. The people that are using these clinics are raving about the success and the alternative treatment once you did get Covid, and by the way the overwhelming majority of the people using the clinics are already vaccinated
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 25, 2022, 06:42:50 PM
I will say that I do believe the monoclonal antibodies are an excellent treatment. 

That said, COVID is one of those things were you have two things going on:



Again, everything I know of them suggest they're excellent treatment and improve outcomes, particularly when applied in the early stages of infection. 

I don't know how effective they are against Omicron, and I'm not going to wade into the politics of it. 

But monoclonal antibodies are one arrow in the quiver. We shouldn't act like they're the entire arsenal. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 25, 2022, 06:48:43 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 25, 2022, 06:42:50 PM
I will say that I do believe the monoclonal antibodies are an excellent treatment.

That said, COVID is one of those things were you have two things going on:


  • It's mild enough, for enough of the population, that a lot of people are going to take monoclonal antibodies, recover, and claim monoclonal antibodies caused their recovery. But because it's mild enough for that much of the population, there's an excellent chance those people would recover in the absence of monoclonal antibody treatment. So causation is hard to determine, especially on an anecdotal level.
  • There may be people who get the monoclonal antibody treatment and then, for whatever reason, still die from COVID. Those people won't be on social media claiming the antibodies cured them... because they're dead. Standard survivorship bias when you're talking about anecdotal reports of how good they are.

Again, everything I know of them suggest they're excellent treatment and improve outcomes, particularly when applied in the early stages of infection.

I don't know how effective they are against Omicron, and I'm not going to wade into the politics of it.

But monoclonal antibodies are one arrow in the quiver. We shouldn't act like they're the entire arsenal.

Who is acting like they’re the only tool in the arsenal? Are you not paying attention?

The FDA, in other words our government, is acting like it’s not a tool in arsenal at all, and that it’s dangerous, and that doctors and patients should not even have the choice.  Are you OK with that?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 25, 2022, 06:55:10 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on January 25, 2022, 06:48:43 PM
Who is acting like they’re the only tool in the arsenal? Are you not paying attention?

The FDA, in other words our government, is acting like it’s not a tool in arsenal at all, and that it’s dangerous, and that doctors and patients should not even have the choice.  Are you OK with that?
Not going to weigh in on that, because I don't have the time to research an informed opinion on the science and/or the political reasoning thereof. 

I will say that as a very general axiom in my political philosophy, I don't agree with the FDA blocking people from treatments that they want and can pay for, especially if the treatments have no or very minimal known negative effects. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 25, 2022, 07:01:40 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 25, 2022, 06:55:10 PM
Not going to weigh in on that, because I don't have the time to research an informed opinion on the science and/or the political reasoning thereof.

I will say that as a very general axiom in my political philosophy, I don't agree with the FDA blocking people from treatments that they want and can pay for, especially if the treatments have no or very minimal known negative effects.
Agreed.   Even if it’s just a placebo, and people only think it helps which might be the case as you suggested, unless they can clearly state risks it should be between the doctor and the patient.   Otherwise it’s hard to conclude that it is anything but political which is very sad.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 25, 2022, 07:14:49 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 25, 2022, 06:55:10 PM
Not going to weigh in on that, because I don't have the time to research an informed opinion on the science and/or the political reasoning thereof.

I will say that as a very general axiom in my political philosophy, I don't agree with the FDA blocking people from treatments that they want and can pay for, especially if the treatments have no or very minimal known negative effects.
This is what I find puzzling.  Well, it's one of two things I find puzzling.

1) The FDA constructs a syllogism with the major premise being, that this monoclonal antibody treatment doesn't work on Omicron.  And the minor premise being, that 99% or more cases in the USA are Omicron.  Leading to the conclusion, that the antibody treatment would not be effective for the vast majority of cases in the USA and therefore shouldn't be allowed and made available in the USA.  They cite a source for the minor premise, but make no such citation for the major premise.  And the major premise is the critical and most compelling one.

2) The FDA cites, as the risk, nothing more than soreness at the injection site, and allergic reactions.  That's it.  Which doesn't seem like nearly enough to just ban the treatments out of hand.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 25, 2022, 07:43:27 PM
So here's my understanding of how this stuff works... I'm throwing it out there hoping people can correct me if I'm wrong.

The basic idea of an antibody is that it prevents a virus from binding to a cell and thereby turning that cell into a manufacturing site for more virus. 

So that's what it is. The more antibodies you have in your system, the more they can stop the virus from attaching, and thus they slow down the replication rate of the virus in your system. 

Your immune system is designed to produce antibodies once it gets the "recipe" after encountering the virus. 




Infection by the virus is a race. The virus is trying to replicate as much of itself as possible as fast as possible. Your body may not detect the virus until after it gains a foothold, and then it has to play catch-up. The vaccine or natural infection means that you've probably got antibodies swimming around in your system which give you a head-start in that race even though your B cells haven't started producing new antibodies. If you've never had COVID or a vaccine, then monoclonal antibodies are an artificial way of upping your head start while your immune system tries to catch up and produce enough on its own. 

IMHO if it's a race, the question is who you're racing against. Omicron is Usain Bolt. Fast as %^&$ but not very violent. Delta is Mike Singletary. Fast, sure, but not by modern standards, but violent as hell. The original strains were Ndamukong Suh. Slow (by football standards, not by human standards), and will flatten you to a pancake and crush your lungs. Your B cells can go 100 mph (faster than any of them), but don't accelerate as fast as any of them either. 

If you have some level of immunity, your body can produce enough antibodies quickly enough to beat any of them in a race, but they might roll right past your head start and make it unpleasant for a little while. 

It's possible that because monoclonal antibodies are limited in numbers, maybe the head start it gives you over Omicron isn't enough to make that big of a difference in outcomes. I don't know. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 25, 2022, 08:11:11 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 25, 2022, 07:43:27 PM
So here's my understanding of how this stuff works... I'm throwing it out there hoping people can correct me if I'm wrong.

The basic idea of an antibody is that it prevents a virus from binding to a cell and thereby turning that cell into a manufacturing site for more virus.

So that's what it is. The more antibodies you have in your system, the more they can stop the virus from attaching, and thus they slow down the replication rate of the virus in your system.

Your immune system is designed to produce antibodies once it gets the "recipe" after encountering the virus.


  • The idea of the mRNA vaccine was to use your own cells to produce the spike protein of SARS-nCOV-2, so that your immune system suddenly sees that protein as a threat and develops antibodies targeted at that protein.
  • For the vaccine, your body will produce a boatload of antibodies once you get the vaccine. But eventually the protein isn't around any more, the antibodies degrade, and start to wane. BUT, your B cells (the antibody manufacturing sites) now have the recipe for that antibody, and have memory of that protein, so they can jump into action MUCH faster after having the vaccine than before.
  • For natural infection, your body will do the same thing. It will produce a boatload of antibodies to neutralize the threat. The downside is that instead of your body being filled with [harmless] spike protein because of the vaccine, your body is full of active virus that is anything from harmless. But the same concept applies. Your body may see a drop in antibodies over time, but as long as your B cells have the "recipe", they can make more rapidly.
  • Because your antibodies wane in absence of a threat, you are still susceptible to new infection [via Delta or Omicron]. But the idea is that once those B cells have memory to create antibodies, they can create them in enormous quantities.


Infection by the virus is a race. The virus is trying to replicate as much of itself as possible as fast as possible. Your body may not detect the virus until after it gains a foothold, and then it has to play catch-up. The vaccine or natural infection means that you've probably got antibodies swimming around in your system which give you a head-start in that race even though your B cells haven't started producing new antibodies. If you've never had COVID or a vaccine, then monoclonal antibodies are an artificial way of upping your head start while your immune system tries to catch up and produce enough on its own.

IMHO if it's a race, the question is who you're racing against. Omicron is Usain Bolt. Fast as %^&$ but not very violent. Delta is Mike Singletary. Fast, sure, but not by modern standards, but violent as hell. The original strains were Ndamukong Suh. Slow (by football standards, not by human standards), and will flatten you to a pancake and crush your lungs. Your B cells can go 100 mph (faster than any of them), but don't accelerate as fast as any of them either.

If you have some level of immunity, your body can produce enough antibodies quickly enough to beat any of them in a race, but they might roll right past your head start and make it unpleasant for a little while.

It's possible that because monoclonal antibodies are limited in numbers, maybe the head start it gives you over Omicron isn't enough to make that big of a difference in outcomes. I don't know.
Great analogies!  Using football players. 

gave me a much better picture. 

sometimes that’s the best way to teach us non engineer types- draw us a mental picture😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 25, 2022, 08:25:24 PM
Damn, Suh killed how many people?!?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 25, 2022, 08:51:44 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 25, 2022, 08:25:24 PM
Damn, Suh killed how many people?!?
He's no Aaron Hernandez, he only kills them on the field.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 25, 2022, 11:03:24 PM
He just about killed Colt McCoy in the 2009 B12 CCG.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 26, 2022, 01:22:30 PM
he stomped on a Packer lineman's head

since it was a Packer, I'll allow it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on January 26, 2022, 01:35:45 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 25, 2022, 11:03:24 PM
He just about killed Colt McCoy in the 2009 B12 CCG.


Also the Mizzou QB in that Thursday game in a hurricane that served as Suh's coming-out party.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on January 26, 2022, 04:53:00 PM
Both the shit and the COVID quantities are heading downhill.

https://twitter.com/dhmontgomery/status/1486452895000272898?s=20

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on January 26, 2022, 06:48:30 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 25, 2022, 07:14:49 PM
This is what I find puzzling.  Well, it's one of two things I find puzzling.

1) The FDA constructs a syllogism with the major premise being, that this monoclonal antibody treatment doesn't work on Omicron.  And the minor premise being, that 99% or more cases in the USA are Omicron.  Leading to the conclusion, that the antibody treatment would not be effective for the vast majority of cases in the USA and therefore shouldn't be allowed and made available in the USA.  They cite a source for the minor premise, but make no such citation for the major premise.  And the major premise is the critical and most compelling one.

2) The FDA cites, as the risk, nothing more than soreness at the injection site, and allergic reactions.  That's it.  Which doesn't seem like nearly enough to just ban the treatments out of hand.
So, the thing I don't totally get is the mechanics.

As we discussed, the thing is banned for use when it comes to omicron. I'd assume the logic is from the snake oil side of things. There's some space where we limit people from saying "here's a miracle cure" and it's just sugar pills. Both producers of the now partially blocked treatments have either agreed or not disagreed with the omicron assessment (at least that's what I read). 

Now it appears an option for non-omicron COVID. But it also looks like supplies were running through the federal government, which shut down that pipeline, given the stuff above. So I'm not sure how the trafficking of that functions. It's also interesting that there is a third version of that treatment which sounds like it works for Omicron and is still available. 

And I honestly don't know the history of the process there. Like, are doctors allowed to offer people treatments that likely don't work, but are safe? (I'm reminded of some story I heard in the 1990s where parents were badgering doctors to give their kids antibiotics for viral conditions because they'd been told it would work, felt like it worked previously or just wanted to feel proactive)

There's maybe some more analysis of the reaction, but I'll abstain there, as it takes us off topic in that way we often get off topic. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 26, 2022, 07:23:56 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on January 26, 2022, 06:48:30 PM
So, the thing I don't totally get is the mechanics.

As we discussed, the thing is banned for use when it comes to omicron. I'd assume the logic is from the snake oil side of things. There's some space where we limit people from saying "here's a miracle cure" and it's just sugar pills. Both producers of the now partially blocked treatments have either agreed or not disagreed with the omicron assessment (at least that's what I read).

Now it appears an option for non-omicron COVID. But it also looks like supplies were running through the federal government, which shut down that pipeline, given the stuff above. So I'm not sure how the trafficking of that functions. It's also interesting that there is a third version of that treatment which sounds like it works for Omicron and is still available.

And I honestly don't know the history of the process there. Like, are doctors allowed to offer people treatments that likely don't work, but are safe? (I'm reminded of some story I heard in the 1990s where parents were badgering doctors to give their kids antibiotics for viral conditions because they'd been told it would work, felt like it worked previously or just wanted to feel proactive)

There's maybe some more analysis of the reaction, but I'll abstain there, as it takes us off topic in that way we often get off topic.
It’s pretty simple really. The medication‘s were working very well for Covid patients who already had Covid. It accelerated the recovery and reduced their symptoms. Florida opened numerous clinics around the state to facilitate that.  Doctors liked it because so many other patients, after hearing through the grapevine from their neighbor or whatever that it worked, were requesting those medication‘s. 
The FDA granted emergency approval.

now the FDA claims, without proof that anybody can see, that it is not effective against the omicron variant, Which is over 90% of the cases in the United States right now,
so they discontinued their approval which no longer allows even patients who request it or doctors who requested to get the medication‘s.

You can form your own opinions about the motivation for that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 26, 2022, 07:28:15 PM
I will add that in the public spat between the FDA and the state of Florida, the FDA claims that the governor of Florida is promoting medication instead of vaccinations.

Representatives of the state of Florida responded to that with the fact that the majority of people getting these treatments have already been vaccinated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on January 26, 2022, 08:46:46 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on January 26, 2022, 07:23:56 PM
It’s pretty simple really. The medication‘s were working very well for Covid patients who already had Covid. It accelerated the recovery and reduced their symptoms. Florida opened numerous clinics around the state to facilitate that.  Doctors liked it because so many other patients, after hearing through the grapevine from their neighbor or whatever that it worked, were requesting those medication‘s. 
The FDA granted emergency approval.

now the FDA claims, without proof that anybody can see, that it is not effective against the omicron variant, Which is over 90% of the cases in the United States right now,
so they discontinued their approval which no longer allows even patients who request it or doctors who requested to get the medication‘s.

You can form your own opinions about the motivation for that.
Wouldn't the FDA have had to grant emergency approval before the first part? 

Anyway, I don't have a dog in the fight (other than assuming things are oft less interesting than the stories we want to tell, I suppose). I don't care if people can get it or not and lord knows, not I nor basically anyone here has a good read on the actual overall effectiveness of the treatment. But there are sort of three prongs. 


1. "the FDA claims, without proof that anybody can see, that it is not effective against the omicron variant"

One of the two companies whose monoclonal antibodies treatments were pulled back basically said in guarded PR-ese, it's not as effective vs omicron. The other was mum, and I think pointed to another release about developing something new. Interestingly, there's a third monoclonal antibodies treatment authorized, but they need to make more of it.

So it's not like the companies are fighting to make clear this actually does work to help against omicron. 

2. There's a larger, interesting question of how to deal with a medicine that people want, but testing seems to show is ineffective. Basically, should a doctor be able to sell me antibiotics for viral issues if I really, really want them? Maybe yes? The FDA in some sense exists to ensure you're not being sold ineffective medicine, but we can debate whether that needs to exist.

3. The motivation part is interesting because it's only really a political move if the treatment has already been politicized. At it's base, it's just a treatment. It's got zero to to with politics unless politician X makes is part of his or her platform. And then that person's supporters make supporting it part of the act of supporting their tribe. 

What's impressive and unfortunate about an act like that is it becomes a political tool coming and going. If people are getting treated, you claim success. If it get's blocked, you get to be aggrieved, the finest tool a modern pol possesses. It's a great bit to ensure that this apparently helpful medicine is divisive, which in the end is a bit of a shame for everyone. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 26, 2022, 09:38:18 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on January 26, 2022, 08:46:46 PM
Wouldn't the FDA have had to grant emergency approval before the first part?

Anyway, I don't have a dog in the fight (other than assuming things are oft less interesting than the stories we want to tell, I suppose). I don't care if people can get it or not and lord knows, not I nor basically anyone here has a good read on the actual overall effectiveness of the treatment. But there are sort of three prongs.


1. "the FDA claims, without proof that anybody can see, that it is not effective against the omicron variant"

One of the two companies whose monoclonal antibodies treatments were pulled back basically said in guarded PR-ese, it's not as effective vs omicron. The other was mum, and I think pointed to another release about developing something new. Interestingly, there's a third monoclonal antibodies treatment authorized, but they need to make more of it.

So it's not like the companies are fighting to make clear this actually does work to help against omicron.

2. There's a larger, interesting question of how to deal with a medicine that people want, but testing seems to show is ineffective. Basically, should a doctor be able to sell me antibiotics for viral issues if I really, really want them? Maybe yes? The FDA in some sense exists to ensure you're not being sold ineffective medicine, but we can debate whether that needs to exist.

3. The motivation part is interesting because it's only really a political move if the treatment has already been politicized. At it's base, it's just a treatment. It's got zero to to with politics unless politician X makes is part of his or her platform. And then that person's supporters make supporting it part of the act of supporting their tribe.

What's impressive and unfortunate about an act like that is it becomes a political tool coming and going. If people are getting treated, you claim success. If it get's blocked, you get to be aggrieved, the finest tool a modern pol possesses. It's a great bit to ensure that this apparently helpful medicine is divisive, which in the end is a bit of a shame for everyone.
For someone who always alleges to be open minded, your position on virtually everything is so totally predictable
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on January 26, 2022, 10:00:43 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on January 26, 2022, 09:38:18 PM
For someone who always alleges to be open minded, your position on virtually everything is so totally predictable
The alternative position being, this was a strike against something for which the success of a rising star politician on the other side has taken ample credit for?

It is quite possible, and if so, is a tremendously foolish calculation. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on January 26, 2022, 11:51:42 PM
Yeah, monoclonal antibodies work. And god damn well too. I know this first hand and for a f**king fact, because I took them and they worked like a miracle on me. This is not some brand new medicine either- monoclonal antibodies have been around for a long time- the first monoclonal antibody drug was approved by the FDA like 35+ years ago and they've approved over 100 monoclonal antibody products since. And the side effects are basically non-existent- any side effects from them are f**king childs play compared to potentially dangerous side effects from THE EXPERIMENTAL VACCINES THAT WERE RUSHED THROUGH IN NINE MONTHS. It typically takes 5-10 years to develop a new vaccine and get it to market. They did this in 9 months. Things that make you go hmmmmmm.

Trust the Big Pharma though. Implicitly. Don't ask any questions. A pharmaceutical industry that I might add is nearly as filthy, rotten, corrupt, and criminal as the banking industry- it is the pharmaceutical industry after all that has paid the second most fines of any industry in US history- behind you guessed it- the banking industry- except when they commit fraud people can f**king die from taking their drugs- the bankers will lie, cheat, and steal- but they won't kill you. Pfizer by the way...yeah- they only paid the single largest criminal fine in US history. Great guys though, they really just want to save lives. They aren't in it for the money. LULZ.

There just simply is not enough evidence there for the FDA to just pull them like that suddenly and without prior warning. This has clearly been politicized and weaponized by the Biden administration. And it's f**king disgusting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 27, 2022, 12:11:58 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on January 26, 2022, 11:51:42 PM
Yeah, monoclonal antibodies work. And god damn well too. I know this first hand and for a f**king fact, because I took them and they worked like a miracle on me. This is not some brand new medicine either- monoclonal antibodies have been around for a long time- the first monoclonal antibody drug was approved by the FDA like 35+ years ago and they've approved over 100 monoclonal antibody products since. And the side effects are basically non-existent- any side effects from them are f**king childs play compared to potentially dangerous side effects from THE EXPERIMENTAL VACCINES THAT WERE RUSHED THROUGH IN NINE MONTHS. It typically takes 5-10 years to develop a new vaccine and get it to market. They did this in 9 months. Things that make you go hmmmmmm.

Trust the Big Pharma though. Implicitly. Don't ask any questions. A pharmaceutical industry that I might add is nearly as filthy, rotten, corrupt, and criminal as the banking industry- it is the pharmaceutical industry after all that has paid the second most fines of any industry in US history- behind you guessed it- the banking industry- except when they commit fraud people can f**king die from taking their drugs- the bankers will lie, cheat, and steal- but they won't kill you. Pfizer by the way...yeah- they only paid the single largest criminal fine in US history. Great guys though, they really just want to save lives. They aren't in it for the money. LULZ.

There just simply is not enough evidence there for the FDA to just pull them like that suddenly and without prior warning. This has clearly been politicized and weaponized by the Biden administration. And it's f**king disgusting.

Did you get vaccinated?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 27, 2022, 12:50:11 PM
The FDA has recommended use of different MCAs for Omicron, ones also made by large drug companies.  They are in short supply at the moment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 27, 2022, 12:51:56 PM
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Limits Use of Certain Monoclonal Antibodies to Treat COVID-19 Due to the Omicron Variant | FDA (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-limits-use-certain-monoclonal-antibodies-treat-covid-19-due-omicron)

Note that MCAs are products made by drug companies.  Two are involved in this decision based on the report they don't work with omicron.  

FDA Halts Use of Some COVID Monoclonal Antibodies Due to Omicron (medscape.com) (https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/967210)

If they aren't effective, I agree they shouldn't be used.  I don't have access to the data they have showing they aren't effective.

FDA expected to restrict use of two COVID-19 monoclonal antibody treatments | TheHill (https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/591075-fda-expected-to-restrict-use-of-two-covid-19-monoclonal-antibody)

The Food and Drug Administration is expected to significantly restrict the use of a pair of monoclonal antibody treatments for COVID-19 because they are ineffective against the omicron variant, a senior administration health official confirmed.

As a result, the official said the Biden administration will be pausing the distribution of the therapies made by Eli Lilly and Regeneron to the states.

The antibody treatment now most recommended is sotrovimab, from GlaxoSmithKline and Vir Biotechnology. The administration will also continue to allocate doses of Pfizer's antiviral drug Paxlovid, as well as one made by Merck called molnupiravir. However, both Paxlovid and sotrovimab are in short supply.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on January 27, 2022, 02:54:54 PM
anybody else find it hysterical that the FDA approved the Pfizer vaccine in 108 days, but when sued through FOIA the FDA tried to argue in court that it needed 75 years - until the year 2097 to release all the vaccine data. Red flags should immediately go off when a government bureaucracy is trying to hide truth and avoid transparency. Side note: wonder how the f the world will look in 2097. Would be cool to be around then, but we'll all be gone unfortunately. Thank god a federal judge laughed them out of court and ordered them to release everything within 8 months.

And now the FDA is trying to ask the judge to delay the first 55,000 pages until May and Pfizer is now intervening as a 3rd party on in the lawsuit. Fun times.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 27, 2022, 03:01:09 PM
‘Paramount importance’: Judge orders FDA to hasten release of Pfizer vaccine docs | Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/paramount-importance-judge-orders-fda-hasten-release-pfizer-vaccine-docs-2022-01-07/)

Still, the FDA is likely to be hard-pressed to process 55,000 pages a month.
The office that reviews FOIA requests has just 10 employees, according to a declaration filed with the court by Suzann Burk, who heads the FDA’s Division of Disclosure and Oversight Management. Burk said it takes eight minutes a page for a worker “to perform a careful line-by-line, word-by-word review of all responsive records before producing them in response to a FOIA request.”
At that rate, the 10 employees would have to work non-stop 24 hours a day, seven days a week to produce the 55,000 pages a month (and would still fall a bit short).
But as lawyers for the plaintiffs Public Health and Medical Professionals for Transparency pointed out in court papers (https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/legaldocs/gdvzymjqrpw/FDA FOIA plaintiff brief.pdf), the FDA as of 2020 had 18,062 employees. Surely some can be dispatched to pitch in at the FOIA office.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on January 27, 2022, 03:04:36 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 27, 2022, 03:01:09 PM
‘Paramount importance’: Judge orders FDA to hasten release of Pfizer vaccine docs | Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/paramount-importance-judge-orders-fda-hasten-release-pfizer-vaccine-docs-2022-01-07/)

Still, the FDA is likely to be hard-pressed to process 55,000 pages a month.
The office that reviews FOIA requests has just 10 employees, according to a declaration filed with the court by Suzann Burk, who heads the FDA’s Division of Disclosure and Oversight Management. Burk said it takes eight minutes a page for a worker “to perform a careful line-by-line, word-by-word review of all responsive records before producing them in response to a FOIA request.”
At that rate, the 10 employees would have to work non-stop 24 hours a day, seven days a week to produce the 55,000 pages a month (and would still fall a bit short).
But as lawyers for the plaintiffs Public Health and Medical Professionals for Transparency pointed out in court papers (https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/legaldocs/gdvzymjqrpw/FDA FOIA plaintiff brief.pdf), the FDA as of 2020 had 18,062 employees. Surely some can be dispatched to pitch in at the FOIA office.
yawn, those are just lame tone deaf excuses to stall and buy time. they could easily beef up oversight management or hire 3rd parties to expedite. here's a better idea...this isn't classified information. there aren't state secrets in any of these documents. just release it all. at once.

Pfizer is now intervening in the lawsuit as a 3rd party...and they are asking til May to release the first 55,000 pages.

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1486441773056643081?s=20&t=vopexvazYxz6crshruBCEA 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 27, 2022, 03:13:40 PM
Who is going to read all this mess anyway?  I presume much of it is tables of data.  I don't see anything nefarious in this at all.  The studies were reviewed by the FDA, and other very similar studies were done in other countries, and with other vaccines.

To think this is some gotcha moment strikes me as a bit bizarre.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 27, 2022, 04:01:06 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 27, 2022, 03:13:40 PM
Who is going to read all this mess anyway?  I presume much of it is tables of data.  I don't see anything nefarious in this at all.  The studies were reviewed by the FDA, and other very similar studies were done in other countries, and with other vaccines.

To think this is some gotcha moment strikes me as a bit bizarre.
How did the FDA read it all in the first place?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 27, 2022, 04:05:44 PM
I would guess they had folks review the data and holding meetings on it, but I'm talking about "us" in the public, I can't think of many who would delve into it, it's not their job to do it.  It's the job of folks at the FDA to review the clinical data, and they do it as their routine job.  There were multiple clinicals on several vaccine types in various countries.  I'm pretty sure most of the paperwork is things like consent forms, data tables, lists of who ran the clinical, signed forms that it was run according to Hoyle, stuff like that.  Boring.

The FDA boys would flip through that for the data on the actual clinical results.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 27, 2022, 05:54:30 PM
Well, shit.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/01/27/1076123109/a-second-version-of-omicron-is-spreading-heres-why-scientists-are-on-alert
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 27, 2022, 06:21:31 PM

Looks like its not a real problem

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=empdad1VBiQ
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 27, 2022, 07:00:46 PM
To be honest, I haven't seen anything that suggests Omicron BA.2 is really any more of a concern than Omicron BA.1. Doesn't seem to be exploding the cases, nor causing more deaths, nor having any more or less immunity evasion. 

But I figured it was worth passing along...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 27, 2022, 07:04:07 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 27, 2022, 07:00:46 PM
To be honest, I haven't seen anything that suggests Omicron BA.2 is really any more of a concern than Omicron BA.1. Doesn't seem to be exploding the cases, nor causing more deaths, nor having any more or less immunity evasion.

But I figured it was worth passing along...
yep

you should consider following this doctor's videos if youre not already
He knows his stuff
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on January 28, 2022, 09:48:29 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 27, 2022, 03:13:40 PM
Who is going to read all this mess anyway?  I presume much of it is tables of data.  I don't see anything nefarious in this at all.  The studies were reviewed by the FDA, and other very similar studies were done in other countries, and with other vaccines.

To think this is some gotcha moment strikes me as a bit bizarre.
who do you think is going to read it? a team of experts/doctors and professionals who are suing the FDA to get their hands on it. 

You don't see anything nefarious in the FDA trying to ask for SEVENTY YEARS (when all of us will be dead) to release all the data? Federal judge laughed the FDA out of court, told them no bitch, you have 8 months, not SEVENTY FIVE YEARS release it all now. The FDA was suppose to start dumping in March, now they are asking the judge to stall til May and Pfizer has joined the lawsuit as a 3rd party. 

Pfizer has never been sued by the federal government in civil and criminal court for fraud and falsifying data. Oh wait, they have! A lot. Pfizer has paid the single largest criminal fine in US history. Lmao. No big deal, whatever. 

Who said it's a gotcha moment? We have no idea what's in those files, and we won't until they are released. TRANSPARENCY in government is a GOOD thing. To think it's OK for a federal bureaucracy to try and obfuscate, stall, delay, and not be transparent and open is ok, well that strikes me as EXTREMELY bizarre. Not a bit. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on January 28, 2022, 09:52:50 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 27, 2022, 04:05:44 PM
I would guess they had folks review the data and holding meetings on it, but I'm talking about "us" in the public, I can't think of many who would delve into it, it's not their job to do it.  It's the job of folks at the FDA to review the clinical data, and they do it as their routine job.  There were multiple clinicals on several vaccine types in various countries.  I'm pretty sure most of the paperwork is things like consent forms, data tables, lists of who ran the clinical, signed forms that it was run according to Hoyle, stuff like that.  Boring.

The FDA boys would flip through that for the data on the actual clinical results.
Again, it's not some random Joe Schmo idiot who has no idea what to do with these documents or what any of them mean that is suing the FDA. It's a non-profit called the Public Health and Medical Professionals for Transparency. It's a team of public health professionals, medical professionals, and scientists. They will pour through all the data with a fine tooth comb. And if they find any irregularities or fraud by Pfizer, well it will be game on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on January 28, 2022, 09:56:39 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 27, 2022, 04:01:06 PM
How did the FDA read it all in the first place?
LOL. Only took them 108 days to pour through the data and approve Pfizer....but they told the courts they needed SEVENTY FIVE YEARS to release all the data. :043:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 28, 2022, 10:14:47 AM
On what date did the rotten FDA grant the emergency approval?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on January 28, 2022, 10:45:52 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 28, 2022, 10:14:47 AM
On what date did the rotten FDA grant the emergency approval?
I believe it was Dec. 11th, 2020. And it took them 108 days for the approval. But they were asking for 75 years- like they killed Kennedy or something- to release everything. LOL. The Public Health and Medical Professionals for Transparency non-profit organization actually asked Pfizer for the data/files. Pfizer told them no. That's why they had to sue the FDA via FOIA to get the Pfizer data. Why did Pfizer instantly reject and flatly say no? Why did the FDA ask for SEVENTY FIVE YEARS to release everything. Why is the FDA now trying to stall in court and delay the release? If these things don't make your bullshit detectors go haywire- yeah, something is wrong with you.

And I am glad you brought that bolded & highlighted part up. I think what many people here are missing is that the FDA has been completely captured by Big Pharma. The regulators that are suppose to be regulating industries on behalf of the public have been captured and controlled by said industries. It's called regulatory capture. This has happened virtually across the board in every sector of the US economy. Which is why the US has become one of the most corrupt countries on planet earth. Nearly half of the FDA's entire budget comes from the companies they are suppose to be regulating via "industry user fees". The FDA used to be 100% tax-payer funded, as it should be- and it wasn't until 1992 when Congress/Bush I signed into law the Prescription Drug User Fee Act - which switched the FDA's funding from completely 100% tax-payer funded to some bullshit system where new drug user fees wound up accounting for about half the departments budget just 25 years later. It's created a system where approving more and more drugs leads to the FDA getting more and more money for their budget. It creates a situation where the more drugs they approve, the more money they can charge in annual fees- and as right now the user fees are about 48% of their god damn budget. Makes no sense.

Should've never passed the Prescription Drug User Fee Act- it's hurt this country. Just like passing NAFTA, passing the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, expanding NATO eastward, slashing taxes for decades while NEVER cutting spending, pushing for China to join WTO and normalizing permanent trade relations with them, drone bombing the shit out of people, fighting endless wars, running a torture chamber in Cuba, building a massive spying apparatus with no oversight or controls aimed at it's own citizens- everything those f**king MORONS did in the 80s & 90s & 00's has eroded this country, it's middle class, made us less free, less safe, made the everyday working class people less well off while the elites and wealthy just got richer and richer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2022, 10:51:15 AM
No, I don't see anything nefarious in asking for 75 years to review the data.  This is a standard negotiating tactic.  They calculated how long it would take "normally" to review the information and came up with 75 years.  They have to review it to ensure no patients are revealed in the data.

The folks who assessed the information reviewed only the parts relevant to said assessment, not all the pages related to other things, as I noted above.  They are well versed in assessing clinical data, if one is experienced in that area it's not that hard.  The actual clinical results were probably captured in ten pages or so.

One idea would be to narrow the FOIA request to just the important clinical results and skip the other stuff that is not relevant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on January 28, 2022, 10:52:52 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 28, 2022, 10:51:15 AM
No, I don't see anything nefarious in asking for 75 years to review the data.  This is a standard negotiating tactic.  They calculated how long it would take "normally" to review the information and came up with 75 years.  They have to review it to ensure no patients are revealed in the data.

The folks who assessed the information reviewed only the parts relevant to said assessment, not all the pages related to other things, as I noted above.  They are well versed in assessing clinical data, if one is experienced in that area it's not that hard.  The actual clinical results were probably captured in ten pages or so.

One idea would be to narrow the FOIA request to just the important clinical results and skip the other stuff that is not relevant.
:043:

Standard negotiating tactic. Right. You're funny.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on January 28, 2022, 10:58:48 AM
btw the FDA tried arguing in court that it needed 75 years because....it's center for biologics evaluation and research which maintains the records has only 10 employees, and 2 of them are new. Yeah, and the dog ate my homework. Lmao.

FDA has 18,000+ employees. They can easily re-assign employees- and they have billions of dollars in there budget which means...they could also hire an outside contractor to help them release the documents.

Give me a break.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2022, 10:59:49 AM
I've been involved in suits before, and this is indeed a typical tactic by one side or the other.

And it does take time to go through material requested by the other side in disclosure to ensure nothing is being leaked.  I'm sure the clinical reports include a lot of pages with personal information of the test subjects that have to be excised, legally, plus their signed consent forms, and a whole lot of other pagination of no real relevance.

We've had MANY clinical trials on several COVID vaccines, it's sort of hard to imagine somehow all the people involved were coopted into agreeing to something nefarious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on January 28, 2022, 11:04:07 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 28, 2022, 10:59:49 AM
I've been involved in suits before, and this is indeed a typical tactic by one side or the other.

And it does take time to go through material requested by the other side in disclosure to ensure nothing is being leaked.  I'm sure the clinical reports include a lot of pages with personal information of the test subjects that have to be excised, legally, plus their signed consent forms, and a whole lot of other pagination of no real relevance.

We've had MANY clinical trials on several COVID vaccines, it's sort of hard to imagine somehow all the people involved were coopted into agreeing to something nefarious.
this isn't a typical lawsuit between two private parties. this isn't me suing you or company a suing company b.

this is a FOIA suit vs a government agency. a government agency that is owned/funded by us- the people. they HAVE to release this information. by law. period. the "negotiating tactic" does not apply here. they have no right to play these games or pull this bullshit. by law they have an obligation to release this info in a reasonable timeframe. 

why are they now trying to delay the release even longer? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2022, 11:11:10 AM
The FDA simply calculated how long it would take under normal review procedures and went to the court with that figure.  I view it as predictable and standard, I've seen it routinely.  They aren't going to go in first shot with anything different.

This is standard stuff, nothing unusual or nefarious.  And the court told them to speed it up.  OK fine.  Another alternative would be to narrow the scope of the request.

And yes, this is a negotiating tactic, perfectly legal.  You might not know how things work in Federal courts, but both sides make requests and the judge often will cut the baby in half.  We're talking about how lawyers operate, I've seen it often and in person.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 28, 2022, 11:16:39 AM
Update on countries of interest:

South Africa (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/):




UK (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/):


USA (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/):


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on January 28, 2022, 11:16:46 AM
Nationally reported Covid deaths reach 900k:

(https://i.imgur.com/cEC1ruA.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 29, 2022, 08:16:47 AM
Florida is pretty open, it's very different from Hawaii where you need "permission" just to get in the state.  I'd say Georgia is somewhat open, some places require masks and some restaurants are take out only, still, and some request masks.

France is in various versions of a shut down for the unvaxxed.  Their case numbers are MUCH higher than anything previously, their deaths have gone up some but have not reached where they were earlier for obvious reasons.

I sense many of us realize all these measures might delay the inevitable a bit but won't stop it, it's endemic now.  We're still planning for the Baltic Cruise in May and I might do another US trip in between, maybe to Vegas, we like the areas near Vegas, not the city itself that much.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 29, 2022, 08:24:55 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/W9siLgw.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/Xe53hig.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 29, 2022, 09:36:14 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/opumCDV.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/WsOrQan.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 29, 2022, 10:04:00 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 29, 2022, 08:16:47 AM
Florida is pretty open, it's very different from Hawaii where you need "permission" just to get in the state.  I'd say Georgia is somewhat open, some places require masks and some restaurants are take out only, still, and some request masks.

France is in various versions of a shut down for the unvaxxed.  Their case numbers are MUCH higher than anything previously, their deaths have gone up some but have not reached where they were earlier for obvious reasons.

I sense many of us realize all these measures might delay the inevitable a bit but won't stop it, it's endemic now.  We're still planning for the Baltic Cruise in May and I might do another US trip in between, maybe to Vegas, we like the areas near Vegas, not the city itself that much.

We postponed our summer Euro trip-- again.  There's just no way to know how the governments of those countries will react when the next wave, or the wave after that, hits them.  And I don't want to bother spending all the time and money to get there, to find that the restaurants and attraction we'd hoped to visit, are closed or otherwise compromised.

So we'll do a beach vacation in Mexico instead. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on January 29, 2022, 10:32:51 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 29, 2022, 08:16:47 AM
Florida is pretty open, it's very different from Hawaii where you need "permission" just to get in the state.  I'd say Georgia is somewhat open, some places require masks and some restaurants are take out only, still, and some request masks.

France is in various versions of a shut down for the unvaxxed.  Their case numbers are MUCH higher than anything previously, their deaths have gone up some but have not reached where they were earlier for obvious reasons.

I sense many of us realize all these measures might delay the inevitable a bit but won't stop it, it's endemic now.  We're still planning for the Baltic Cruise in May and I might do another US trip in between, maybe to Vegas, we like the areas near Vegas, not the city itself that much.
It's interesting being in town on the border of a couple states. 

Everything is functionally open everywhere. In one state, because of a "mask mandate" in the specific city, a majority of people wear masks, but people don't generally care. In the other, where I used to live and which has been less strict, I walk into a restaurant with a mask and almost no other customer has one. And then I shrug and take my seat because I tend to be a live and let live guy. It's always an intersting transition. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 29, 2022, 10:47:09 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on January 29, 2022, 10:32:51 AM
It's interesting being in town on the border of a couple states.

Everything is functionally open everywhere. In one state, because of a "mask mandate" in the specific city, a majority of people wear masks, but people don't generally care. In the other, where I used to live and which has been less strict, I walk into a restaurant with a mask and almost no other customer has one. And then I shrug and take my seat because I tend to be a live and let live guy. It's always an intersting transition.

going from tyranny to freedom can be very interesting
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 29, 2022, 10:52:00 AM
Just got my 2nd COVID shot 1/2 hr ago, Evidently wait 5 months for the booster
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 29, 2022, 11:04:12 AM
How were you feeling from the first one? Which brand did you go for?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 29, 2022, 11:15:02 AM
Finally found a place nearby that can deliver the booster, I'll be doing that Tuesday morning.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 30, 2022, 11:37:03 AM
How mRNA and DNA vaccines could soon treat cancers, HIV, autoimmune disorders and genetic diseases (theconversation.com) (https://theconversation.com/how-mrna-and-dna-vaccines-could-soon-treat-cancers-hiv-autoimmune-disorders-and-genetic-diseases-170772?fbclid=IwAR2SXY6up6G4MMHVLv3fAKbYxuQIYT4VozMN7Do-kMJ9xVNRK61kBi8OMcA)

T cell responses are very important for identifying cells infected with chronic diseases and aberrant cancer cells. They also play a big role in eliminating these cells from the body.
When a cell becomes cancerous, it starts producing neoantigens (https://www.cancer.gov/publications/dictionaries/cancer-terms/def/neoantigen). In normal cases, the immune system detects these neoantigens, recognizes that something’s wrong with the cell and eliminates it. The reason some people get tumors is that their immune system isn’t quite capable of eliminating the tumor cells, so the cells propagate.
With an mRNA or DNA vaccine, the goal is to make your body better able to recognize the very specific neoantigens the cancer cell has produced. If your immune system can recognize and see those better, it will attack the cancer cells and eliminate them from the body (https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-019-03072-8).
This same strategy can be applied to the elimination of chronic infections (https://www.genengnews.com/insights/immunotherapy-targets-emerging-infectious-diseases/) like HIV, hepatitis B and herpes. These viruses infect the human body and stay in the body forever unless the immune system eliminates them. Similar to the way nucleic acid vaccines can train the immune system to eliminate cancer cells, they can be used to train our immune cells to recognize and eliminate chronically infected cells.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 30, 2022, 11:56:20 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 29, 2022, 11:04:12 AM
How were you feeling from the first one? Which brand did you go for?
Sorry just seeing this went with Pfizer,no problems except a sore arm developed later on at nite.Wasn't going to get one at all as I never had the the Flu except for once. However on the employment front most asking for proof or demanding vaccination. Have been fairly mobile after the original 2 months back in 2020 so perhaps immune or asymptomatic
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2022, 06:47:39 AM
What the Joe Rogan podcast controversy says about the online misinformation ecosystem : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2022/01/21/1074442185/joe-rogan-doctor-covid-podcast-spotify-misinformation)

An interesting dilemma I think, but people are so prone to confirmation bias, they will get bad info from somewhere else if not here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 31, 2022, 07:17:01 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 31, 2022, 06:47:39 AM
What the Joe Rogan podcast controversy says about the online misinformation ecosystem : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2022/01/21/1074442185/joe-rogan-doctor-covid-podcast-spotify-misinformation)

An interesting dilemma I think, but people are so prone to confirmation bias, they will get bad info from somewhere else if not here.
You could have just titled this:

online misinformation ecosystem NPR

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on January 31, 2022, 10:18:57 AM
In several nations Excessive Death counts are indicating death numbers beyond those attributable to COVID.

Russia’s population drop of 700K last year amounts to more than their Covid losses. Going back over a decade before the pandemic began, Russia’s mortality rates were already too high. Got to believe that a century of tyranny, corruption, and economic depression resulting in famines, prison camps, severe alcohol abuse, and a lack of religious vision has long since broken the collective spirit of Russia, IMO.

As for the UK, their surprising decrease in life longevity (and rise in mortality) started decreasing before the pandemic as well, where Covid is certainly the main driver behind the UK’s current spike in excess deaths. But last year the UK’s excess deaths were not fully explained by Covid.

In the larger picture, IMO, costs and poverty and homelessness are rising across the first world without short-term political solution, and healthcare cannot keep up with our collectively poorer health from worsening diets, more polluted living environments, and especially rising drug abuse. It’s all adding up to Covid pushing it all beyond the breaking point.

https://twitter.com/Tolling_Bell/status/1464408199155437568

https://twitter.com/RFERL/status/1487369032726548480
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 31, 2022, 02:42:48 PM
Very interesting. I still believe that Covid was spread around much earlier than everyone first thought. Maybe that is part of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 01, 2022, 11:51:39 AM
Got my Moderna booster today, easy in and out, took abut 10 minutes total.  They also said I didn't need to wait around for an additional 15 minutes afterward this time, but I could if I wanted to.

I expect this will be the last shot I get, unless/until they start developing variant-specific shots and manage to get ahead of the game with them.





Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 01, 2022, 11:56:57 AM
Quote from: utee94 on February 01, 2022, 11:51:39 AM
Got my Moderna booster today, easy in and out, took abut 10 minutes total.  They also said I didn't need to wait around for an additional 15 minutes afterward this time, but I could if I wanted to.

I expect this will be the last shot I get, unless/until they start developing variant-specific shots and manage to get ahead of the game with them.
I did the other day - the pharmacist was smokin'
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 01, 2022, 12:41:08 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on February 01, 2022, 11:56:57 AM
I did the other day - the pharmacist was smokin'
valuable info
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on February 01, 2022, 01:42:49 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on February 01, 2022, 11:56:57 AM
I did the other day - the pharmacist was smokin'
That’s not good for his or her health.

Or I got your blood flowing which I don’t know if that’s good or bad for your health
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 01, 2022, 02:00:22 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on February 01, 2022, 11:56:57 AM
I did the other day - the pharmacist was smokin'
Inside the building?  Is that still legal up there?

I'll just say that the pharmacy team at the Walgreens I went to was not worth sticking around for.

Arm is already getting a little sore, that's about all I had with the first two so hoping for more of the same.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 01, 2022, 02:59:09 PM
Too early to tell if it'll hold, but the US death numbers (7-day MA) might be hitting a plateau a little under the 2400/day mark. 

That would be very positive, as the UK data showed from Delta peak -> Omicron peak a roughly 50% increase, which here would suggest a number closer to 3000/day. 

I personally was predicting the 2600-2800 range as our Omicron peak, and if we stay under 2400 I'd say that's a good thing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 01, 2022, 03:25:14 PM
I gave up on looking at case numbers months ago. All I care about now is hospital use and deaths.

(https://i.imgur.com/JddZ9eh.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/CRd9RSG.png)

Now, it IS interesting to compare the above with the case rates.

(https://i.imgur.com/1pJYxwr.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on February 01, 2022, 04:15:24 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 01, 2022, 03:25:14 PM
I gave up on looking at case numbers months ago. All I care about now is hospital use and deaths.

(https://i.imgur.com/JddZ9eh.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/CRd9RSG.png)

Now, it IS interesting to compare the above with the case rates.

(https://i.imgur.com/1pJYxwr.png)
I, for one, am pro where those projected lines go an would prefer strongly that they get there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 01, 2022, 04:57:58 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 01, 2022, 02:59:09 PM
Too early to tell if it'll hold, but the US death numbers (7-day MA) might be hitting a plateau a little under the 2400/day mark.

That would be very positive, as the UK data showed from Delta peak -> Omicron peak a roughly 50% increase, which here would suggest a number closer to 3000/day.

I personally was predicting the 2600-2800 range as our Omicron peak, and if we stay under 2400 I'd say that's a good thing.
Yeah it's still a little early to tell but I think the case/death ratio this time around is going to end up in a better place than the previous waves.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 01, 2022, 05:17:37 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 01, 2022, 04:57:58 PM
Yeah it's still a little early to tell but I think the case/death ratio this time around is going to end up in a better place than the previous waves.
Oh that's already assured... Which is good considering that our case peak was 3x any time previously in the pandemic. If the case/death ratio was similar to the 2020-21 holiday/winter wave, we'd be looking at 9-10K deaths/day. 

Peak deaths then were 3500. With triple the cases I was guessing 2600-2800 deaths/day, and that we might barely hit 3000 but wouldn't eclipse that previous peak of 3500. Although we're still 20% over the Delta peak, the fact that we aren't even as high as my guess is a very good thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 01, 2022, 05:17:46 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 01, 2022, 04:57:58 PM
Yeah it's still a little early to tell but I think the case/death ratio this time around is going to end up in a better place than the previous waves.

You think?


It's a certainty. And, while extremely sad, many of those who were most vulnerable have already passed away.

Let's look at OLD Florida.

(https://i.imgur.com/MAuxNcW.png)


(https://i.imgur.com/8VIfGfP.png)


The worst is OVAH!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 01, 2022, 05:30:43 PM
Death curves are still rising in many states, including Texas.

I think I'll go ahead and wait to get all the way into the endzone before spiking the ball.

So, like I said, it's looking positive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 01, 2022, 05:33:05 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 01, 2022, 02:00:22 PM
Inside the building?  Is that still legal up there?

I'll just say that the pharmacy team at the Walgreens I went to was not worth sticking around for.

Arm is already getting a little sore, that's about all I had with the first two so hoping for more of the same.
So is it a 5 month wait?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 01, 2022, 05:35:23 PM
5 months, 6 months.... whatever it takes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 01, 2022, 07:06:12 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 01, 2022, 05:35:23 PM
5 months, 6 months.... whatever it takes.
It's over.

Covid is 28 points down with 6 minutes left in the 4th, and Covid does not have Tom Brady.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 01, 2022, 07:08:17 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 01, 2022, 07:06:12 PM
It's over.

Covid is 28 points down with 6 minutes left in the 4th, and Covid does not have Tom Brady.
Plenty of Lockdown Larrys and Mask-up Marvins out there, will ensure it's not "over."

I mean, it'll be back to business as usual in Texas and Florida, but there are regions in the US and countries in Europe that are just itching to shut it all down again, as soon as they have the slightest excuse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 01, 2022, 07:10:20 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 01, 2022, 07:08:17 PM
Plenty of Lockdown Larrys and Mask-up Marvins out there, will ensure it's not "over."

I mean, it'll be back to business as usual in Texas and Florida, but there are regions in the US and countries in Europe that are just itching to shut it all down again, as soon as they have the slightest excuse.

Yeah, well, F**K them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 01, 2022, 07:36:33 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 01, 2022, 07:08:17 PM
Plenty of Lockdown Larrys and Mask-up Marvins out there, will ensure it's not "over."

I mean, it'll be back to business as usual in Texas and Florida, but there are regions in the US and countries in Europe that are just itching to shut it all down again, as soon as they have the slightest excuse.

This.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 01, 2022, 08:43:07 PM
You realize that even here in Kalifornistan, we haven't gone to a lockdown this year... The worst offenders here are LA County and San Francisco, which required proof of vax to enter places. Statewide the worst of it was a mask mandate. 

For me, in Orange County, the only real difference was wearing a mask into Costco... A lot of places (such as our wine bar) just didn't give a crap about mask mandates and didn't enforce them. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 01, 2022, 08:50:20 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 01, 2022, 08:43:07 PM
You realize that even here in Kalifornistan, we haven't gone to a lockdown this year... The worst offenders here are LA County and San Francisco, which required proof of vax to enter places. Statewide the worst of it was a mask mandate.

For me, in Orange County, the only real difference was wearing a mask into Costco... A lot of places (such as our wine bar) just didn't give a crap about mask mandates and didn't enforce them.

And YOU realize that we're not always talking about California?  How very Californian to think it always has to be about YOU.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 01, 2022, 08:57:53 PM
But I'll add that at this point, I consider proof of vaccination to enter an establishment, to be unnecessary and not particularly scientific given what we know about the transmission of Omicron.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 01, 2022, 08:59:56 PM
We just tend to be everyone's whipping boy, so I figured we fell into the potential list of places dominated by Lockdown Larry and Mask-Up Marvin. 

Even if Good-For-Nuthin' Gavin doesn't follow LA's mask mandates...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 01, 2022, 09:33:30 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 01, 2022, 08:59:56 PM
We just tend to be everyone's whipping boy, so I figured we fell into the potential list of places dominated by Lockdown Larry and Mask-Up Marvin.

Even if Good-For-Nuthin' Gavin doesn't follow LA's mask mandates...
well if you guys would stop trying to be Moscow west we might just cut ya some slack
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 02, 2022, 01:05:08 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/mB8tTma.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 02, 2022, 07:18:05 AM
https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2022/01/A-Literature-Review-and-Meta-Analysis-of-the-Effects-of-Lockdowns-on-COVID-19-Mortality.pdf

A long read.  But- Data for those interested- from Johns Hopkins. 

Summary- lockdowns had virtually no impact on mortality rates- but had substantial negate impacts on economics, education, domestic violence and drug use.

Read it now before it is censored. 😂

If you want to skip the data just go straight to pages 39 through 43. But if you do that don’t forget that this is a conglomeration of numerous studies throughout the world. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2022, 08:13:41 AM
The initial lockdown was justifiable at the time, we didn't know much about what was happening, OK, I get that.  Today?  Nope.

Endemic.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 02, 2022, 08:22:10 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 02, 2022, 08:13:41 AM
The initial lockdown was justifiable at the time, we didn't know much about what was happening, OK, I get that.  Today?  Nope.

Endemic.


15 days to stop the spread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2022, 08:25:19 AM
The concept at the time was to try and keep hospitals from being overwhelmed.  OK, I get that, spread out the curve some, in theory.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 02, 2022, 08:26:50 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 02, 2022, 08:25:19 AM
The concept at the time 


Was to send infected people to nursing homes. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2022, 08:28:07 AM
In some states apparently yes.  Mistakes were made, that was a bad one.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 02, 2022, 08:37:07 AM
To me, the initial reaction about locking down was a natural and logical thing to do. And if you read the data there appears to have been some benefit to having closed down nonessential large gatherings.

But what jumps out at me today is there is still a crowd in the media and the government who are claiming “science“ around the lockdown policy, and calling those who disagree conspiracy theorist or spreaders of miss information. 

The data says that the ones claiming this are actually the ones who are abandoning science and spreading disinformation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 02, 2022, 08:38:24 AM
Johns Hopkins?  Those hacks?

Not gonna read it.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2022, 09:22:13 AM
Today, I don't see much enthusiasm for lockdowns outside Europe, and agree we don't need widescale lockdowns.  Our symphony cancelled two performances recently, well, OK, their choice, they also require me to show my vax card to enter, which is the only time I've had to show it other than entering Hawaii.  

After seeing packed football stadia with screaming fans have little apparent impact on the spread, I doubt attending a symphony is much of a risk except it's mostly older folks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2022, 09:36:09 AM
Covid will never become an endemic virus, scientist warns (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/02/covid-will-never-become-an-endemic-virus-scientist-warns.html)

Scientists use a mathematical equation, the so-called R naught (or R0) (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-may-be-deadlier-than-1918-flu-heres-how-it-stacks-up-to-other-pandemics.html), to assess how quickly a disease is spreading. The R0 indicates how many people will catch a disease from an infected person, with experts at Imperial College London estimating omicron’s could be higher than 3 (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/omicron-largely-evades-immunity-from-past/#:~:text=Growth of).  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2022, 09:37:26 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/uQrdw4h.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 02, 2022, 11:34:36 AM
I feel like that chart could use a title...

...and a legend...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2022, 11:37:17 AM
It is R naught for different diseases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 02, 2022, 11:43:12 AM

Thanks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 02, 2022, 11:44:58 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 02, 2022, 09:36:09 AM
Covid will never become an endemic virus, scientist warns (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/02/covid-will-never-become-an-endemic-virus-scientist-warns.html)

Scientists use a mathematical equation, the so-called R naught (or R0) (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-may-be-deadlier-than-1918-flu-heres-how-it-stacks-up-to-other-pandemics.html), to assess how quickly a disease is spreading. The R0 indicates how many people will catch a disease from an infected person, with experts at Imperial College London estimating omicron’s could be higher than 3 (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/omicron-largely-evades-immunity-from-past/#:~:text=Growth of). 


so this whole theory is that there will always be a new variant to maintain it being a epidemic

seems a little weak to me

almost like they dont want the world to recover from this

we have to deal in the now and not the what if

the now is that we are very quickly moving toward endemic status
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2022, 11:58:30 AM
It's terminology really as to what is meant by endemic versus epidemic.  My GUESS is we'll have continued outbreaks of COVID, much as we have colds and flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 02, 2022, 12:06:32 PM
Not sure how many years/waves it will take epidemiologists to declare it officially as endemic, but in practice it's already there. It keeps coming back, it's never going away, it's endemic.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 02, 2022, 12:23:42 PM
My understanding was that the original and alpha variants had R0 in the 2-3 range. Delta in the 5-7 range. And Omicron potentially above 10. 

I haven't heard anywhere but the above suggest that Omicron is anywhere near as low as 3. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 02, 2022, 12:27:35 PM
PolitiFact | Is omicron variant the fastest spreading virus? It depends on the metric used for measuring (https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2022/jan/20/facebook-posts/omicron-variant-fastest-spreading-virus-it-depends/)

If you believe Politifact, measles is worse, but there are other factors.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 02, 2022, 12:43:07 PM
I don't trust the Politburo.  I'm undecided on Politfact.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 02, 2022, 01:06:04 PM
the fact that omicron is a fast spreader is a good thing

delta got its ass kicked
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 03, 2022, 07:28:53 AM
Why do some people get Covid while others don't? (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/03/why-do-some-people-get-covid-while-others-dont.html)

Never COVID cohorts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 03, 2022, 08:02:44 AM
#NeVeRcOvId
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 03, 2022, 10:35:20 AM
I have an issue with how we define infected and having a disease... Even at the beginning, 50% of people who tested positive for the virus didn't have any symptoms. We clearly already understand that there is a difference between SARS-nCOV-2 (the virus) and COVID-19 (the disease). If you never have symptoms, even if you encountered the virus, can it be said that you TRULY have the disease? Even if you test positive for the virus?

So for 50% of people (at least what we understood at the beginning), their immune system is sufficient to keep the virus at bay and never to allow an actual disease to develop. 

Well, what about those who have better immune systems, who encounter the virus, and their system knocks it down before the virus has enough time to multiply enough to even turn up positive on a PCR has had the virus. But they will never exhibit symptoms and won't test positive. 

If a single SARS-nCOV-2 virion enters your system, attaches to one cell, and starts forcing that cell to multiply more virus, you have been infected. If your immune system is so strong that you sufficiently repel the virus from attaching to any further cells, you have beaten the infection. 

By our current rhetoric, we base "having COVID" on "testing positive", rather than on "having symptoms of a disease". Well, the only difference between an asymptomatic positive and the example I just gave, of encountering the virus, having a small infection, and beating it, is the degree of viral load. 

So is there a true #neverCOVID cohort? Perhaps. But I'd argue that the #neverCOVID cohort must include all asymptomatic cases of the virus, even with a positive test. Because the only difference between them and someone who knocked down the virus before reaching sufficient viral load to trigger a PCR is amount of virus, not whether they've been infected at all. 

So is #neverCOVID the group who encountered the virus and handled the infection without symptoms? Or is it ONLY the group who encountered the virus and handled the infection without symptoms, but did so efficiently enough to fool a PCR test into coming up negative?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 03, 2022, 10:39:01 AM
Yeah, makes sense, and then there are false positives at some rate I don't know.

I'd think any "germ" to which one is exposed is not going to have a 100% "success rate".  Stuff happens.  Maybe the measles or ebola is most efficient, I don't know.  I'd like to see data on how often a person exposed to a variety of diseases contracts said disease in some obvious form.

Maybe "we" get hit with disease X often and for whatever reason it doesn't get a foothold.

I wonder if 100 people eat potato salad with salmonella how many get sick.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 03, 2022, 10:49:47 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 03, 2022, 10:39:01 AM
Yeah, makes sense, and then there are false positives at some rate I don't know.

I'd think any "germ" to which one is exposed is not going to have a 100% "success rate".  Stuff happens.  Maybe the measles or ebola is most efficient, I don't know.  I'd like to see data on how often a person exposed to a variety of diseases contracts said disease in some obvious form.

Maybe "we" get hit with disease X often and for whatever reason it doesn't get a foothold.

I wonder if 100 people eat potato salad with salmonella how many get sick.
Agreed. And your statement inadvertently proves my point. 

You talk about being exposed to a variety of diseases or getting hit with a "disease" and it doesn't gain a foothold. 

We're exposed to viruses and bacteria. Those are a cause. A disease is a result. 

Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease

Quote
A disease is an abnormal condition that negatively affects the structure (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Structure) or function (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Function_(biology)) of all or part of an organism, and that is not due to any immediate external injury.[1] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease#cite_note-:1-1)[2] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease#cite_note-2) Diseases are often known to be medical conditions that are associated with specific signs and symptoms (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Signs_and_symptoms). A disease may be caused by external factors such as pathogens (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pathogen) or by internal dysfunctions. For example, internal dysfunctions of the immune system (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immune_system) can produce a variety of different diseases, including various forms of immunodeficiency (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immunodeficiency), hypersensitivity (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypersensitivity), allergies (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allergy) and autoimmune disorders (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoimmune_disorders).

In humans, disease is often used more broadly to refer to any condition that causes pain (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pain), dysfunction (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abnormality_(behavior)), distress (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distress_(medicine)), social problems (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_problems), or death (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death) to the person afflicted, or similar problems for those in contact with the person. In this broader sense, it sometimes includes injuries (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Injury), disabilities (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disability), disorders (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease#Disorder), syndromes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syndrome), infections (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infection), isolated symptoms (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Symptom), deviant behaviors (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavior), and atypical variations (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_variability) of structure and function, while in other contexts and for other purposes these may be considered distinguishable categories. Diseases can affect people not only physically, but also mentally, as contracting and living with a disease can alter the affected person's perspective on life.

I agree that it would be really good to understand how and why some people exposed to / infected by a disease-causing virus/bacteria never get the disease. 

But it would require us to say that people who were asyptomatic positives for SARS-nCOV-2 never had the COVID-19 "disease", because their bodies fought off the virus without it causing disease. And those who encountered the virus but never had enough viral load to trigger a PCR test still had the virus, but also never had the COVID-19 disease. 

But these #neverCOVID people are trying to figure out why someone didn't test positive, not why someone who tested positive never got the disease. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on February 04, 2022, 01:36:27 PM
one shot to rule them all? 

US military is supposedly close to a vaccine that will beat all covid strains. 

https://www.cnet.com/health/a-universal-vaccine-to-end-covid-pandemics-its-in-the-armys-sights/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on February 04, 2022, 01:37:29 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 01, 2022, 07:06:12 PM
It's over.

Covid is 28 points down with 6 minutes left in the 4th, and Covid does not have Tom Brady.
yeah, but it does have a brain dead moron named Joe Biden....which helps COVID out a lot....so there's that. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on February 04, 2022, 01:44:31 PM
this is medical misinformation....especially this part: “With the omicron variant, kids are either going to get the vaccine or they're likely to get a serious condition of omicron,” Dr. Emanuel says.

misinformation by a major establishment corporate media outlet....why are there no calls to censor this? 

https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/1489400069203939335?s=20&t=bDf6kdMPVrUfd02WoBNDCw
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 04, 2022, 01:48:46 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on February 04, 2022, 01:44:31 PM
this is medical misinformation....especially this part: “With the omicron variant, kids are either going to get the vaccine or they're likely to get a serious condition of omicron,” Dr. Emanuel says.

misinformation by a major establishment corporate media outlet....why are there no calls to censor this?

https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/1489400069203939335?s=20&t=bDf6kdMPVrUfd02WoBNDCw
I saw this and wondered how long it would take to end up here. :)

This is pretty bad from a scaremongering headline/misinformation standpoint.  And if you actually read/listen to what he's saying, it's not really as extreme as the headline MSNBC chose to apply to it.  But they know their base audience well, and are quite good at pandering to them.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on February 04, 2022, 01:57:01 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 04, 2022, 01:48:46 PM
I saw this and wondered how long it would take to end up here. :)

This is pretty bad from a scaremongering headline/misinformation standpoint.  And if you actually read/listen to what he's saying, it's not really as extreme as the headline MSNBC chose to apply to it.  But they know their base audience well, and are quite good at pandering to them.
well that doctor actually said this; “With the omicron variant, kids are either going to get the vaccine or they're likely to get a serious condition of omicron.” - which is just an outright lie.

multiple studies have shown that children are more at risk from the flu than they are covid - and those studies were before omicron - which is a much milder strain than delta or any of the previous strains.

Not nearly as bad as another doctor who went on NBC News and said 146,000 children died from covid in the US and that covid is one of the top 10 killers of children now - but still pretty bad imo.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 04, 2022, 02:10:48 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on February 04, 2022, 01:57:01 PM
well that doctor actually said this; “With the omicron variant, kids are either going to get the vaccine or they're likely to get a serious condition of omicron.” - which is just an outright lie.

multiple studies have shown that children are more at risk from the flu than they are covid - and those studies were before omicron - which is a much milder strain than delta or any of the previous strains.

Not nearly as bad as another doctor who went on NBC News and said 146,000 children died from covid in the US and that covid is one of the top 10 killers of children now - but still pretty bad imo.

Yes I know it's an incorrect statement.  It might be an intentional lie, or it might just be an incorrectly phrased statement.

I think what he meant to say, given the context of the rest of the discussion, is "with the omicron variant, kids that get the vaccine are less likely to come down with a serious case, than kids that don't."  That would be a correct statement, and would be consistent with the rest of the discussion.

But that's not what he actually said, and although I can probably forgive him for misspeaking, MSNBC clearly latched on to this one incorrect statement, and used it as their headline.  We all know exactly why MSNBC chose to do this, no need to belabor the point, and while I'm willing to forgive a doctor for a misstatement when it's possible and even likely he meant something else, I won't extend the same courtesy to MSNBC who knew better and published it anyway to further an agenda.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 04, 2022, 02:13:34 PM
If I understand the article about the army vaccine it would still need to be modified

every time a new strain arrived:

The Army's SpFN vaccine is shaped like a soccer ball with 24 faces. Scientists can attach the spikes of multiple coronavirus strains to each of the different faces, allowing them to customize the vaccine for any new COVID variants that arise.

While this is good we still would be in a situation of getting a shot when a new strain came out

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on February 04, 2022, 05:29:22 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 04, 2022, 02:10:48 PM
Yes I know it's an incorrect statement.  It might be an intentional lie, or it might just be an incorrectly phrased statement.

I think what he meant to say, given the context of the rest of the discussion, is "with the omicron variant, kids that get the vaccine are less likely to come down with a serious case, than kids that don't."  That would be a correct statement, and would be consistent with the rest of the discussion.

But that's not what he actually said, and although I can probably forgive him for misspeaking, MSNBC clearly latched on to this one incorrect statement, and used it as their headline.  We all know exactly why MSNBC chose to do this, no need to belabor the point, and while I'm willing to forgive a doctor for a misstatement when it's possible and even likely he meant something else, I won't extend the same courtesy to MSNBC who knew better and published it anyway to further an agenda.
I see what you're saying now, and I agree with you. 

As for MSNBC - they keep selling the fear porn because they know it'll get clicks and eyeballs.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 04, 2022, 05:31:30 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on February 04, 2022, 05:29:22 PM
I see what you're saying now, and I agree with you.

As for MSNBC - they keep selling the fear porn because they know it'll get clicks and eyeballs. 
Except- they are not winning over viewers. Their ratings are horrible and getting worse.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on February 04, 2022, 05:36:33 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on February 04, 2022, 05:31:30 PM
Except- they are not winning over viewers. Their ratings are horrible and getting worse.
Yeah, because ORANGE BAD MAN GONE. Lol. The ratings have free fallen because I think people are getting tired. Can only lie to them so much before they tune out. At least they can still crack in the few million on some shows. CNN can't even get over 700-800k right now. MSNBC might be screwed though, as the one person they have that commands a real audience and has a real following- Rachel Maddow - is stepping away.

CNN is actually hilarious - they are starting a streaming service called CNN+. They currently get laughably low viewership on basic cable which people get basically for free as it's part of every basic cable package. If they think they can start a streaming service and charge people $10-15 a month and anyone is going to actually pay for that - well they are nuts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 04, 2022, 05:48:52 PM
I started scanning the MSNBC web site every few days, it is rather entertaining, and predictable.  They don't change content very often which suggests they are a low budget op.  I scan CNN's also a few times a week.  Both really need Trump back, and both need a basic upgrade in material, I don't mean less biased, I mean just more quality stuff.

And I don't think that other cable network is, well, much, either, but they update constantly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 04, 2022, 06:05:04 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 04, 2022, 05:48:52 PM
I started scanning the MSNBC web site every few days, it is rather entertaining, and predictable.  They don't change content very often which suggests they are a low budget op.  I scan CNN's also a few times a week.  Both really need Trump back, and both need a basic upgrade in material, I don't mean less biased, I mean just more quality stuff.

And I don't think that other cable network is, well, much, either, but they update constantly.
well thats to be expected from someone who gets their news from Popular Mechanic 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 05, 2022, 07:11:44 AM
I used to read PM and Popular Science when I was a kid, they were interesting.  There was a weekly called Science News I'd get at work that was a nice terse summary of stuff, I liked that.  It probably still exists, maybe only on line.

I used to get the three main car mags each month but most of their stuff now is on line for free.  I had a lot of mag subscriptions at one point, some for aviation, I got the NTSB accident report from a buddy, that was fun.  Pilot error.

For a while I was in charge of our technical library in our building at work, those subscriptions would run over $3,000 a year, the director's admin once yelled at me for spending $3500 "for a magazine".  OPM.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 05, 2022, 07:45:47 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/sIuON35.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/2gSVvEc.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 05, 2022, 08:09:56 AM
I find it interesting how various states and countries get lauded (or criticized) for their actions with COVID, and then later on they either are doing worse, or better, depending, than others.  Area under the curve?

You can run but you can't hide.

Germany is experiencing a bad outbreak that isn't yet abating.

Sweden is having a bad time with Omicron that might be peaking.

India is having a bad time that might be peaking.

Israel is the same, maybe peaking.

I worry about the next variant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 05, 2022, 08:27:24 AM
Well, we know for certain that lockdowns didn't work. As such, I would submit that the states which didn't lock down did better by their people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on February 05, 2022, 10:34:20 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 01, 2022, 02:59:09 PM
Too early to tell if it'll hold, but the US death numbers (7-day MA) might be hitting a plateau a little under the 2400/day mark.

That would be very positive, as the UK data showed from Delta peak -> Omicron peak a roughly 50% increase, which here would suggest a number closer to 3000/day.

I personally was predicting the 2600-2800 range as our Omicron peak, and if we stay under 2400 I'd say that's a good thing.

Your predicted numbers are right within striking range for this past week. 2600 deaths yesterday, 2700 deaths Thursday, 3000 deaths Wednesday and 3100 on Tuesday. With the weekly average hovering at about 2500 dating through last weekend.

While our Omicron case wave is peaking here in the U.S. it looks like it’s rising in several already hard hit, larger nations – Iran, Japan, Brazil:



(https://i.imgur.com/3AX3nnR.jpg)

(https://i.imgur.com/e4EYbc3.jpg)

(https://i.imgur.com/NMMkZ61.jpg)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 06, 2022, 01:42:59 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 05, 2022, 08:27:24 AM
Well, we know for certain that lockdowns didn't work. As such, I would submit that the states which didn't lock down did better by their people.
masks didn't work either
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: TyphonInc on February 07, 2022, 12:01:39 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on February 04, 2022, 02:13:34 PM
If I understand the article about the army vaccine it would still need to be modified

every time a new strain arrived:

The Army's SpFN vaccine is shaped like a soccer ball with 24 faces. Scientists can attach the spikes of multiple coronavirus strains to each of the different faces, allowing them to customize the vaccine for any new COVID variants that arise.

While this is good we still would be in a situation of getting a shot when a new strain came out

I feel like this is the step needed to make it an annual flu like shot though; not a get it or your fired, pandemic, hysterical, news worthy, propaganda, current deal. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 07, 2022, 12:21:57 PM
Often, a measure may work somewhat, or slightly, or even not at all but seem plausible at the time.  Lockdowns have to have had some impact on the rate of spread, they may not have altered area under the curve.  The most stringent lockdowns in China appear to have been effective, short term.

And I believe masks have some small benefit for obvious reasons.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 07, 2022, 12:28:23 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 07, 2022, 12:21:57 PM
Often, a measure may work somewhat, or slightly, or even not at all but seem plausible at the time.  Lockdowns have to have had some impact on the rate of spread, they may not have altered area under the curve.  The most stringent lockdowns in China appear to have been effective, short term.

And I believe masks have some small benefit for obvious reasons.

It's impossible to say this because China never reported any legitimate data.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 07, 2022, 12:29:37 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 07, 2022, 12:28:23 PM
It's impossible to say this because China never reported any legitimate data. 
Well, anyone who did is no longer with us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 07, 2022, 12:32:56 PM
It's pretty obvious that a "real lockdown" is going to interrupt respiratory disease transmission rates shorter term.  It's a matter of tradeoffs, and the West wouldn't be able to implement a real lockdown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 07, 2022, 12:35:28 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 07, 2022, 12:32:56 PM
It's pretty obvious that a "real lockdown" is going to interrupt respiratory disease transmission rates shorter term.  It's a matter of tradeoffs, and the West wouldn't be able to implement a real lockdown.

A totalitarian state is the only place that ever could.  It's possible that China did.  But we'll never know, because the CCP are lying sacks of shit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 07, 2022, 06:26:50 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/7ff5XoD.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 07, 2022, 06:29:04 PM
I'll start with the sprayer on the left!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on February 07, 2022, 06:42:07 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 07, 2022, 12:28:23 PM
It's impossible to say this because China never reported any legitimate data. 
yup. and they also disappeared any doctors/whistleblowers who tried to get word out early - not to mention the database with all the information on the bat coronaviruses the Wuhan lab were experimenting on that China deleted/purged from their internet. China hasn't been forthright about anything related to COVID. there was without question an attempt at a cover-up and suppression of information. 

shit was created in a lab through gain of function research, it accidentally leaked out - and CCP tried covering it up. I'd say that leaked grant proposal to DARPA submitted in 2018 by EcoHealth Alliance - that DARPA rejected as too risky - is pretty much the smoking gun. Shit was a blueprint to literally build COVID-19. EcoHealth Alliance was already funding several other research projects at the Wuhan lab in China. Just because DARPA told them to f**k off doesn't mean they didn't or weren't already trying this in China the Wuhan lab with other sources of funding.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 07, 2022, 08:26:19 PM
The number of people hospitalized for COVID-19 in Nebraska has dropped more than 15% in the past week as the omicron surge has eased.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 08, 2022, 07:33:55 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on February 07, 2022, 06:42:07 PM
yup. and they also disappeared any doctors/whistleblowers who tried to get word out early - not to mention the database with all the information on the bat coronaviruses the Wuhan lab were experimenting on that China deleted/purged from their internet. China hasn't been forthright about anything related to COVID. there was without question an attempt at a cover-up and suppression of information.

shit was created in a lab through gain of function research, it accidentally leaked out - and CCP tried covering it up. I'd say that leaked grant proposal to DARPA submitted in 2018 by EcoHealth Alliance - that DARPA rejected as too risky - is pretty much the smoking gun. Shit was a blueprint to literally build COVID-19. EcoHealth Alliance was already funding several other research projects at the Wuhan lab in China. Just because DARPA told them to f**k off doesn't mean they didn't or weren't already trying this in China the Wuhan lab with other sources of funding.
I'm not ready to believe it was an accident, but it could have been.

And, if so, they found out early and closed travel within the country. They allowed travel out of the country, unleashing their mistake on the World. Remember, their economy was on the edge when this happened. This helped them level the playing field.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 08, 2022, 09:17:20 AM
We need to talk about the vaccines - UnHerd (https://unherd.com/2022/01/we-need-to-talk-about-the-vaccines/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on February 08, 2022, 09:21:48 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 08, 2022, 07:33:55 AM
I'm not ready to believe it was an accident, but it could have been.

And, if so, they found out early and closed travel within the country. They allowed travel out of the country, unleashing their mistake on the World. Remember, their economy was on the edge when this happened. This helped them level the playing field.
this is also true, and there was a study done that suggested that had China not sat on their hands and feet for 3 weeks and had they warned the world immediately and shut down travel within their country - they could've stopped the initial spread by 95% and COVID would not have become a pandemic.

I really despise US politicians and greedy US based multi-national conglomerates for creating the China problem. China was a poor, back water shithole that wouldn't have ever become a threat to the US had it not been for our own stupid leaders and greedy corporations. WE created this f**king monster. Time to take it out if you ask me. I am always anti-war, but they are without question the biggest threat to the US by 100,000,000 miles and it's not close. Longer the US waits to just take them out - the harder it's going to be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: TyphonInc on February 08, 2022, 09:33:29 AM
Quote from: utee94 on February 07, 2022, 12:28:23 PM
It's impossible to say this because China never reported any legitimate data. 

I observed the John Hopkins report didn't include any data from China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 08, 2022, 09:49:40 AM
I think something as contagious as COVID was going to get out, sooner or later, area under the curve.

I remember how hard Italy got hit early on.  I think a lot of US infections came from Europe, after getting there from Asia.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 08, 2022, 10:25:14 AM
The moment the novel Coronavirus escaped its lab-- whether intentional or not-- it was inevitably going to become a pandemic.  It's just too contagious.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 08, 2022, 10:28:45 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 08, 2022, 09:17:20 AM
We need to talk about the vaccines - UnHerd (https://unherd.com/2022/01/we-need-to-talk-about-the-vaccines/)
Great piece, thanks for posting.

It solidly outlines the dangers of censorship, and the consequences of stifling scientific debate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 08, 2022, 10:46:30 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on February 08, 2022, 09:21:48 AM
I really despise US politicians and greedy US based multi-national conglomerates for creating the China problem. 
The Chinese have been victims of their own government as we have here by rich special interests and their political lackeys.The Military-industrial complex has a lot of exlaining peddling fear to ensure contracts on materials that have been grossly over inflated.IKE even gave us a heads up on their slimey ways.Little Georgy Bush and his side bitch Cheney and their ilk are just as much as an affront as the demented slappies from the far left unfortunately
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 08, 2022, 10:49:47 AM
Quote from: utee94 on February 08, 2022, 10:28:45 AM
Great piece, thanks for posting.

It solidly outlines the dangers of censorship, and the consequences of stifling scientific debate.
Yes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 08, 2022, 11:08:10 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 08, 2022, 10:49:47 AM
Yes.
If I posted this piece to the Coronavirus thread on surlyhorns, I'd be shouted down and labeled anti-science and anti-vax.

Which is precisely the point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 08, 2022, 11:21:15 AM
Quote from: utee94 on February 08, 2022, 11:08:10 AM
If I posted this piece to the Coronavirus thread on surlyhorns, I'd be shouted down and labeled anti-science and anti-vax.

Which is precisely the point.
Same if I were to post it on Buckyville. We all have our fools.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 08, 2022, 12:32:28 PM
any thread named  surlyhorns should be a HUGE red flag

stay away
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 08, 2022, 12:57:41 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 08, 2022, 12:32:28 PM
any thread named  surlyhorns should be a HUGE red flag

stay away

Surlyhorns is awesome for BBQ talk.  Hit or miss for most anything else and, like all homer boards, completely unreadable for anything sports related.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 08, 2022, 01:11:40 PM
never been there but was tempted to visit just to troll Burnt eyes back in the day
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 08, 2022, 01:39:14 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 08, 2022, 10:28:45 AM
Great piece, thanks for posting.

It solidly outlines the dangers of censorship, and the consequences of stifling scientific debate.
I found it interesting, a rare one that appears to present both sides.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on February 09, 2022, 12:42:27 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 08, 2022, 09:49:40 AM
I think something as contagious as COVID was going to get out, sooner or later, area under the curve.

I remember how hard Italy got hit early on.  I think a lot of US infections came from Europe, after getting there from Asia.
It would have been a difficult thing to shut down. It might have been contained very early, but physicians have to recognize early that it is a new virus, and that's hard to do when you have a new virus. Recall the young Chinese doctor who was punished for reporting a new virus, and then died of the virus.

Initially, the Chinese hid the outbreak, which was immoral, but then when they saw what they were dealing with shut down Wuhan and isolated it, but it was too late for the rest of the world. It does appear their tactics largely succeeded in controlling spread. But, I also recall a CNN reporter was able to leave Wuhan just before Wuhan was shut down and isolated. He left because he knew the isolation was about to be imposed.

It is hard to say how successful China was in shutting it down because it is a totalitarian regime with control of the media. However, it appears the Chinese did better than most at stopping the spread. If the spread there were worse than here, it would be hard to hide, because it has been really bad here, and there are so many more people in China.

Western Olympic athletes isolated in COVID hotels in Beijing complain about the conditions in which they are isolated, a  hotel room with bad food, and adverse effects upon their mental health. Beijing will have a spike in COVID cases after the Olympics, and the news will leak out. It takes a few weeks to spread exponentially.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 09, 2022, 08:44:32 AM
There are Covid restrictions?


Fauci told the paper that there is no way to eradicate the virus, but it is his hope that "we are looking at a time when we have enough people vaccinated and enough people with protection from previous infection that the Covid restrictions will soon be a thing of the past."


Fauci says ‘full blown’ COVID-19 pandemic is almost over in US | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/health/fauci-says-full-blown-covid-19-pandemic-is-almost-over-in-us)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 09, 2022, 08:57:45 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on February 09, 2022, 12:42:27 AM
It would have been a difficult thing to shut down. It might have been contained very early, but physicians have to recognize early that it is a new virus, and that's hard to do when you have a new virus. Recall the young Chinese doctor who was punished for reporting a new virus, and then died of the virus.

Initially, the Chinese hid the outbreak, which was immoral, but then when they saw what they were dealing with shut down Wuhan and isolated it, but it was too late for the rest of the world. It does appear their tactics largely succeeded in controlling spread. But, I also recall a CNN reporter was able to leave Wuhan just before Wuhan was shut down and isolated. He left because he knew the isolation was about to be imposed.

It is hard to say how successful China was in shutting it down because it is a totalitarian regime with control of the media. However, it appears the Chinese did better than most at stopping the spread. If the spread there were worse than here, it would be hard to hide, because it has been really bad here, and there are so many more people in China.

Western Olympic athletes isolated in COVID hotels in Beijing complain about the conditions in which they are isolated, a  hotel room with bad food, and adverse effects upon their mental health. Beijing will have a spike in COVID cases after the Olympics, and the news will leak out. It takes a few weeks to spread exponentially.


What makes you believe the highlighted above?  What evidence is there that "the Chinese did better than most?" 

I can tell you that there's evidence they did NOT.  People I used to work with in China on a daily basis disappeared  though the course of 2020.  Sometimes they were replaced, sometimes their counterparts took over for them, sometimes their duties just went unfulfilled.  Nobody was allowed to say how or why, or when they might be back.  Many never came back.

Chinese vendors have decommitted on dozens of millions of units over the past two years, in my small sliver of the business alone.  Over half of worldwide demand, they have been unable to fulfill.

The supply chain disruptions we're seeing around the globe over two years later, are not merely a result of some dock workers in Los Angeles not showing up to work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 09, 2022, 09:49:38 AM
We also had many reports of millions of urns stacked up around crematoriums, and reports of constant burning. 

Those reports came from within China, from people who are no longer breathing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 09, 2022, 10:08:59 AM
Yup. And satellite surveillance of unusually high levels of activity around Chinese hospitals as early as November 2019.

But I was just citing the things I actually know and have experienced directly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 09, 2022, 10:55:53 AM
China's aggressive measures have slowed the coronavirus. They may not work in other countries | Science | AAAS (https://www.science.org/content/article/china-s-aggressive-measures-have-slowed-coronavirus-they-may-not-work-other-countries)

China's coronavirus lockdown strategy: brutal but effective | Coronavirus | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/19/chinas-coronavirus-lockdown-strategy-brutal-but-effective)

The Impact of China's Lockdown Policy on the Incidence of COVID-19: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis (nih.gov) (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8553467/)

There was a significant decrease the COVID-19 daily cases reported in China following the institution of a lockdown, and therefore, lockdown may be used to curtail the burden of COVID-19.


It's logical that a near total lockdown will reduce spread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 09, 2022, 10:59:00 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 09, 2022, 10:55:53 AM
China's aggressive measures have slowed the coronavirus. They may not work in other countries | Science | AAAS (https://www.science.org/content/article/china-s-aggressive-measures-have-slowed-coronavirus-they-may-not-work-other-countries)

China's coronavirus lockdown strategy: brutal but effective | Coronavirus | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/19/chinas-coronavirus-lockdown-strategy-brutal-but-effective)

The Impact of China's Lockdown Policy on the Incidence of COVID-19: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis (nih.gov) (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8553467/)

There was a significant decrease the COVID-19 daily cases reported in China following the institution of a lockdown, and therefore, lockdown may be used to curtail the burden of COVID-19.


It's logical that a near total lockdown will reduce spread.

It is logical.  It would be interesting to see actual real, legitimate data on such a policy.

Citing anything released by the CCP doesn't represent real, legitimate data, so we're left with nothing but speculation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 09, 2022, 11:02:29 AM
Forget China, any real draconian lock down would reduce spread.  Maybe half measures might reduce it some as well, I'd believe that, but area under the curve.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 09, 2022, 11:04:23 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 09, 2022, 11:02:29 AM
Forget China, any real draconian lock down would reduce spread.  Maybe half measures might reduce it some as well, I'd believe that, but area under the curve.


The point is that any real draconion lockdown is so impossible to achieve that not even China could manage it, despite their lies to the contrary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 09, 2022, 11:06:16 AM
My point is that any lockdown is likely to inhibit rates of contagion, to the extent it is a lockdown.  I can't see the alternative as being plausible.  A loose lockdown would have a modest impact.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 09, 2022, 11:18:11 AM
Sure theoretically it would work.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 09, 2022, 11:28:03 AM
In unrelated news, cases peaked here in Texico around 1/17, and it appears deaths MAY have peaked around 2/4, although the data are still noisy enough it's tough to draw a firm conclusion yet.

But if so, then the overall peak death rate was lower than all previous spikes in absolute terms, and the peak rate as % of cases was many times lower, than previous spikes.  Obviously that's great news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 09, 2022, 11:40:14 AM
Quote from: utee94 on February 09, 2022, 11:18:11 AM
Sure theoretically it would work. 
It would work, in proportion to how severe the lockdown is, at least short term.  At some point you have to unlock things to some extent.  I'd do it IFF a situation were so dire and serious that hospitals couldn't cope and we needed to spread it out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 14, 2022, 09:49:10 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/4nQDJsA.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/8QeKd9p.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 14, 2022, 10:05:51 AM
Deaths in Texas still haven't started dropping. Seemed like they were a few days ago, but apparently not just yet.  The peak cases were on 1/17 and dropped off quickly so we're now 4 weeks past, I would expect the deaths to begin dropping steadily as well.



(https://i.imgur.com/LgCyMn2.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/cPoZDIj.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 14, 2022, 10:35:51 AM
Perhaps folks in critical condition are surviving longer now with treatment, but still don't make it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 14, 2022, 10:55:57 AM
might also be some cases of dying with covid not dying because of covid
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 14, 2022, 11:11:59 AM
I doubt anyone dies directly of COVID, it is possible though, I think nearly all die of pneumonia or related disease enabled by a COVID infection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 14, 2022, 11:12:40 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 14, 2022, 10:35:51 AM
Perhaps folks in critical condition are surviving longer now with treatment, but still don't make it.
Could be.  Overall the number of hospital cases rose dramatically but didn't translate into deaths, hospitals said that because the symptoms were so much milder than previous mutations they were processing people in and out quickly.  So the above statement doesn't really jive with with non-critical hospital cases, but perhaps critical cases are lingering longer.

Or perhaps there's something else in the numbers, to lh320's point, the whole "dying with COVID" rather than "dying from COVID."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 14, 2022, 11:17:59 AM
I think folks have gotten better at treating this now, and with heroic efforts some may linger.  

Hopefully more critical cases are pulling through.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 14, 2022, 11:30:59 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 14, 2022, 10:35:51 AM
Perhaps folks in critical condition are surviving longer now with treatment, but still don't make it.
Maybe, but I haven't seen that in other state or country data. 

Could also be an aberration due to reporting days. Many states aren't reporting 7 days a week now, so I've seen some lag in Worldometers data as new reports come on and they have to backfill for those states.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 14, 2022, 11:31:38 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 14, 2022, 11:11:59 AM
I doubt anyone dies directly of COVID, it is possible though, I think nearly all die of pneumonia or related disease enabled by a COVID infection.
If you die of a disease enabled by covid then you died from covid

look its simple dont make it hard

many people have covid but die from something not associated with covid in any way that they would have died from without covid

those or the cases Im talking about

in short its to both the hospitals and doctors benefit to associate deaths to covid because of the reimbursements
available
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 14, 2022, 12:32:38 PM
Eh, I think the whole "dying from COVID" vs "dying with COVID" is a complete sleight of hand. And strangely, the only people who EVER bring that up are the people already looking to minimize COVID's impact.

All you need to do is look at the CDC excess deaths graph: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

A lot more people have died than usual over the last 2 years. Strangely, the shape of the excess death curves just happen to pretty much exactly follow the shape of the known waves of COVID, and of the attributed death due to COVID as shown by Worldometers. 

If you want to somehow handwave that those people died from something other than COVID, then it's on you to explain why we have so many excess deaths that are somehow dying "with" COVID. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 14, 2022, 12:48:30 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 14, 2022, 12:32:38 PM
Eh, I think the whole "dying from COVID" vs "dying with COVID" is a complete sleight of hand. And strangely, the only people who EVER bring that up are the people already looking to minimize COVID's impact.

All you need to do is look at the CDC excess deaths graph: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

A lot more people have died than usual over the last 2 years. Strangely, the shape of the excess death curves just happen to pretty much exactly follow the shape of the known waves of COVID, and of the attributed death due to COVID as shown by Worldometers.

If you want to somehow handwave that those people died from something other than COVID, then it's on you to explain why we have so many excess deaths that are somehow dying "with" COVID.
thats a fair point

is there a way to know excess deaths for the latest omicron run

I would compare the data to precovid 2019 etc for comparative purposes
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 14, 2022, 01:06:29 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 14, 2022, 11:30:59 AM
Maybe, but I haven't seen that in other state or country data.

Could also be an aberration due to reporting days. Many states aren't reporting 7 days a week now, so I've seen some lag in Worldometers data as new reports come on and they have to backfill for those states.
Yup it could certainly be a reporting lag. As all of this has worn on, I definitely think the urgency in gathering reporting data has diminished.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 14, 2022, 03:00:15 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 14, 2022, 01:06:29 PM
Yup it could certainly be a reporting lag. As all of this has worn on, I definitely think the urgency in gathering reporting data has diminished.
Yeah, this was from mid-January:


(https://i.imgur.com/ohLdhFs.png)
Less than half the states report 7 days a week... Most report every weekday, and some even less frequently than that. 

Of course, TX is listed as reporting all 7 days... Do you know if all the individual TX counties report every day? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 14, 2022, 03:03:39 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on February 14, 2022, 12:48:30 PM
thats a fair point

is there a way to know excess deaths for the latest omicron run

I would compare the data to precovid 2019 etc for comparative purposes
The CDC generally has a significant lag for their reports, because it's based on actual coroner's official cause of death as reported up through government databases, and those are not typically as up to date as places like Worldometers. Given that it's individual states, counties, and perhaps even individual city coroners, reporting isn't the most timely. Even then, the latest data they currently show is the week ending Jan 29, so >2 weeks ago. 

So we really won't have clear data from the Omicron wave for probably another month, as all the numbers come in. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 14, 2022, 03:14:20 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 14, 2022, 03:00:15 PM
Yeah, this was from mid-January:


(https://i.imgur.com/ohLdhFs.png)
Less than half the states report 7 days a week... Most report every weekday, and some even less frequently than that.

Of course, TX is listed as reporting all 7 days... Do you know if all the individual TX counties report every day?

No idea on other counties.  Ours reports daily.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on February 14, 2022, 03:19:03 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 14, 2022, 12:32:38 PM
Eh, I think the whole "dying from COVID" vs "dying with COVID" is a complete sleight of hand. And strangely, the only people who EVER bring that up are the people already looking to minimize COVID's impact.

All you need to do is look at the CDC excess deaths graph: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

A lot more people have died than usual over the last 2 years. Strangely, the shape of the excess death curves just happen to pretty much exactly follow the shape of the known waves of COVID, and of the attributed death due to COVID as shown by Worldometers.

If you want to somehow handwave that those people died from something other than COVID, then it's on you to explain why we have so many excess deaths that are somehow dying "with" COVID.
I wouldn’t say “complete” but I think it’s often a broad brush, in the same vein as comorbidities.

I had a relative who would’ve had the comorbidity of “heart failure.” She had heart failure from when I was age 4 to 24.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 14, 2022, 03:43:13 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 14, 2022, 03:03:39 PM
The CDC generally has a significant lag for their reports, because it's based on actual coroner's official cause of death as reported up through government databases, and those are not typically as up to date as places like Worldometers. Given that it's individual states, counties, and perhaps even individual city coroners, reporting isn't the most timely. Even then, the latest data they currently show is the week ending Jan 29, so >2 weeks ago.

So we really won't have clear data from the Omicron wave for probably another month, as all the numbers come in.
got it

I'll be very interested to see how excessive deaths compare to the omicron death count

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 14, 2022, 04:26:32 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on February 14, 2022, 03:19:03 PM
I wouldn’t say “complete” but I think it’s often a broad brush, in the same vein as comorbidities.

I had a relative who would’ve had the comorbidity of “heart failure.” She had heart failure from when I was age 4 to 24.
Right.

My mom has significant health issues. I believe she's living with the condition called "heart failure". Which always seems strange, because to us laymen, "heart failure" generally means you're dead. My dad's morbidly obese. Maybe he should stop eating fettucine alfredo three times a week, but it's not exactly my place to tell him what to do. 

They're both vaxxed now, which is good. But prior to the vax, I've stated here that due to comorbidities, COVID would probably kill at least one of them if they both got it. 

Either of them could go at any time. My mom had an issue last fall that was touch and go for a while (including time in the ICU), but not COVID related. Either of them could have a heart attack at any moment. 

But if one of them got symptomatic COVID and then died of a heart attack while infected with COVID, I'd pretty much call that a COVID death. Because even though they're comorbidities, it would most likely be the virus that turned it from a chronic to an acute situation. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 14, 2022, 05:18:31 PM
Heart failure is a condition that develops when your heart doesn't pump enough blood for your body's needs. This can happen if your heart can't fill up with enough blood. It can also happen when your heart is too weak to pump properly. The term "heart failure" does not mean that your heart has stopped.


I found this quickly, and was surprised.  I had heart failure last year, in effect.  That was really awful, but quickly corrected 100%.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 14, 2022, 05:32:54 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 14, 2022, 05:18:31 PM
Heart failure is a condition that develops when your heart doesn't pump enough blood for your body's needs. This can happen if your heart can't fill up with enough blood. It can also happen when your heart is too weak to pump properly. The term "heart failure" does not mean that your heart has stopped.


I found this quickly, and was surprised.  I had heart failure last year, in effect.  That was really awful, but quickly corrected 100%.


Heart failure can also be caused by being a Longhorn fan
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 14, 2022, 05:34:59 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on February 14, 2022, 05:32:54 PM
Heart failure can also be caused by being a Longhorn fan
:'(
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 14, 2022, 07:27:21 PM
and Sooner Magic
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 14, 2022, 08:11:10 PM
Least the Horns won the hardware in '05.Try following the BROWNS........still waiting
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 14, 2022, 10:23:17 PM
still waiting on the purple people eaters
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 15, 2022, 08:05:34 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on February 14, 2022, 05:32:54 PM
Heart failure can also be caused by being a Longhorn fan
I'd think that close last second miracle losses would be more prone to cause it, not loss after loss that seems predictable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on February 15, 2022, 08:19:57 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on February 14, 2022, 05:32:54 PM
Heart failure can also be caused by being a Longhorn fan
The heart has three chambers. Freshman year, sophomore year, junior year. It takes in blue chip talent and oxygenates it with the ability to play at the next level. 

The Longhorn heart is struggling there. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 15, 2022, 08:30:17 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 15, 2022, 08:05:34 AM
I'd think that close last second miracle losses would be more prone to cause it, not loss after loss that seems predictable.

5 of Texas' 7 losses were by only one score.  Texas led in the second half against 3 Top 25 opponents in a row, each of which resulted in a 1-score loss.  Predictable?  If you'd asked OU fans if they were predicting a win over Texas when they were down 28-7 I'm not sure you'd get a single honest answer. 

So, yeah... hindsight is 20/20.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 15, 2022, 02:48:34 PM
A very interesting look here. 

How the CDC Abandoned Science - Tablet Magazine (https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/science/articles/how-the-cdc-abandoned-science)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 15, 2022, 04:07:49 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 15, 2022, 02:48:34 PM
A very interesting look here.

How the CDC Abandoned Science - Tablet Magazine (https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/science/articles/how-the-cdc-abandoned-science)

Good read.  Thanks for sharing.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on February 16, 2022, 01:53:50 AM
I have not tested + since December! I have had mild cases twice.
I wear KN-95s since I am so good at getting COVID, and actually don't want to get it.
I hope we are getting back to normal. But since I am close to so many who are extremely vulnerable treating for cancer, including my dad, and my brother-in-law, I wear masks around everyone, other than my spouse.
For those thinking COVID is a political football, for the 14th time I heard about someone nearby to me or a client, who died from it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 16, 2022, 03:12:07 AM
There's zero doubt it's a political football.

That doesn't mean it shouldn't be taken seriously, as long as it's addressed in a rational way using data to guide us.

And to respond to one anecdote with another, I still know zero people who have died, and zero people who have been hospitalized. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 16, 2022, 05:24:21 AM
Everything is a political foosball.

I know some folks who had serious cases, but none went to the hospital.  My kid in Texas got it early, March 2020, and was really sick, and I couldn't get out there.

So, Omicron is abating, great, but how soon will another variant hit?  O-micron is small, O-mega is large.

We're still go for the Baltic cruise in May, I hope the Russia thing doesn't blow up, we're supposed to visit St. Pete.

I was just rereading Commodore Hornblower where he did a Baltic cruise.  My Texas kid gave me the entire series for my birthday, previously I had read spots that the library had, not the full collection.  Same author write African Queen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 16, 2022, 08:54:38 AM
I don't know anyone who has passed. One in the hospital - very serious. He still has issues with his lungs.

He was in the hospital January 2021, for 6 weeks. Caught it at a NYE party.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 16, 2022, 10:35:17 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 16, 2022, 05:24:21 AM
So, Omicron is abating, great, but how soon will another variant hit?  O-micron is small, O-mega is large.
IMHO this is the end of the pandemic. Between vaccine coverage, massive Omicron case numbers (went from 50M to 80M confirmed cases in this wave), significant asymptomatic or untested case numbers, we're done. 

Where this thing kept going after the vaccines was due to Delta mutating to be significantly easier to spread than the original and Alpha variants, and then Omicron came on and overwhelmed all vaccine-derived or natural immunity because it was significantly easier to spread than Delta. I've seen estimates that the original and Alpha had R0 around 2-3, Delta was 5-7, and Omicron 10 or higher. 

Omicron became super-transmissible by the same process which made it mild--residing in the upper airways rather than deep in the lungs. I don't see how another variant would suddenly become MORE transmissible than that. 

This thing fades from here. That's my prediction, and as you all know, I've been right about everything so far :72:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 16, 2022, 10:55:05 AM
Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm)

Flu season has been low, once again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 16, 2022, 10:56:53 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/i97ijA0.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 16, 2022, 11:07:03 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 16, 2022, 10:35:17 AM
IMHO this is the end of the pandemic. Between vaccine coverage, massive Omicron case numbers (went from 50M to 80M confirmed cases in this wave), significant asymptomatic or untested case numbers, we're done.

Where this thing kept going after the vaccines was due to Delta mutating to be significantly easier to spread than the original and Alpha variants, and then Omicron came on and overwhelmed all vaccine-derived or natural immunity because it was significantly easier to spread than Delta. I've seen estimates that the original and Alpha had R0 around 2-3, Delta was 5-7, and Omicron 10 or higher.

Omicron became super-transmissible by the same process which made it mild--residing in the upper airways rather than deep in the lungs. I don't see how another variant would suddenly become MORE transmissible than that.

This thing fades from here. That's my prediction, and as you all know, I've been right about everything so far :72:
Not really.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 16, 2022, 11:53:33 AM
You gonna let that defiance just stand, Bwar???

:)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 16, 2022, 12:27:27 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 16, 2022, 11:53:33 AM
You gonna let that defiance just stand, Bwar???

:)

Don't make me start digging back to spring of 2020.

You too!!


Everyone has had it.

TWICE!!

<<mockery of me>>


Idgits.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 16, 2022, 12:30:00 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 16, 2022, 11:07:03 AM
Not really.
Quote from: utee94 on February 16, 2022, 11:53:33 AM
You gonna let that defiance just stand, Bwar???

:)

Well, clearly that assertion that I'm always right was meant to be tongue in cheek...

I'd venture if someone combed through all 1244 pages of this thread, however, my "rightness of prediction" number would be quite high.

What's funny about it is that so many of my predictions have been the wet blanket on all the Pollyanna assertions from so many in this thread, and the wet blanket position has been pretty damn accurate. Now that I'm turning Pollyanna, people are complaining? :smiley_confused1:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 16, 2022, 12:36:21 PM
I'm not sure you've been that much of a wet blanket.

We've had at least one COVID Warrior on this thread the entire time-- a true COVIDIAN as the internet might now name the affliction.  THAT is the wet blanket viewpoint.

Between the two extremes-- the COVIDIOTS and the COVIDIANS-- is where at least a few of us have made our residence over the past couple of years.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 16, 2022, 01:15:49 PM
The latest US Stats

(https://i.imgur.com/uX9UEwO.png)


(https://i.imgur.com/ucV2F9w.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 16, 2022, 01:26:54 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on February 16, 2022, 01:15:49 PM
The latest US Stats

(https://i.imgur.com/uX9UEwO.png)


(https://i.imgur.com/ucV2F9w.png)
Yep.

Interestingly my prediction of peak daily deaths (measured by 7-day MA) during Omicron would be in the 2600-2800 range. For a while, it was looking like it would come in below that. However, we've discussed that sometimes the data can lag in Worldometers and have to be backfilled based on date of death as later reports come in, those numbers have risen...

Current peak of the 7-day MA is now sitting at 2643... So... I was right, as usual. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 16, 2022, 01:53:10 PM
there should be no mask mandates for anyone everywhere in the US

but some school boards just cant give up the power
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 16, 2022, 02:05:26 PM
We're done with mask mandates in schools in my part of town, they ended sometime before Christmas.

My 14yo daughter voluntarily still wears one all day at school, except in band class.

My 12yo son abandoned the mask after he caught COVID anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 16, 2022, 02:49:54 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 16, 2022, 12:36:21 PM
I'm not sure you've been that much of a wet blanket.

We've had at least one COVID Warrior on this thread the entire time-- a true COVIDIAN as the internet might now name the affliction.  THAT is the wet blanket viewpoint.

Between the two extremes-- the COVIDIOTS and the COVIDIANS-- is where at least a few of us have made our residence over the past couple of years.


I heard if Branch Covidians or something like that.   Another Texas thing. 🥴
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 16, 2022, 06:50:19 PM
Texans are weird and dangerous people.  Folks should definitely not move here.

Thank You For Your Support
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 17, 2022, 08:04:31 AM
Quote from: utee94 on February 16, 2022, 02:05:26 PM
We're done with mask mandates in schools in my part of town, they ended sometime before Christmas.

My 14yo daughter voluntarily still wears one all day at school, except in band class.

My 12yo son abandoned the mask after he caught COVID anyway.
There haven't been any here since May 2020. I like this.

The only place where I still wear a mask is when I go into the bank.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 17, 2022, 08:06:29 AM
And at airports.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 17, 2022, 08:35:33 AM
For now, yes.

I got these for flying:

UnMask Face Masks | Breathe With Us! (getunmask.com) (https://www.getunmask.com/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 17, 2022, 08:39:07 AM
I haven't flown anywhere since 2019.  We'll be going to Playa del Carmen this summer and maybe things will be different by then. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 17, 2022, 08:42:13 AM
I just checked and I've flown 39 flights since March 2020.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on February 17, 2022, 08:54:13 AM
I hope there is a bipartisan call to burn all masks in the next few weeks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 17, 2022, 08:57:32 AM
Some medical offices here require masks still, I think. The last time I went to the dentist I had to wear one, which is silly. Went for a cleaning. My first question to the hygienist was whether or not I should remove it.

Duh.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 17, 2022, 09:01:46 AM
Our dental office does a reasonable job I think, the hygienist and dentists are face shielded, they have barriers around the office, patients wear a mask except in the exam room, OK with me.  I have had shoulder surgery and a heart procedure amidst all this, they handled it pretty well I thought.

Our cruise in May required proof of vaccine, masks now are optional.  I'd probably wear one in the cafeteria.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 17, 2022, 09:21:38 AM
I'll just take round 4 of Covid rather than wear a mask. Thanks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 17, 2022, 09:56:37 AM
Yeah our doc's office is still requiring masks.

Dentist office is requiring it in the waiting room but they're set up to just call you in from your car when your room is ready so it's really just wearing one from the front door to the chair.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 17, 2022, 11:12:20 AM
Quote from: utee94 on February 17, 2022, 09:56:37 AM
Yeah our doc's office is still requiring masks.

Dentist office is requiring it in the waiting room but they're set up to just call you in from your car when your room is ready so it's really just wearing one from the front door to the chair. 


Must doc offices are doing it based on CDC guidelines. Even when we didn't have overall mask mandates in CA, all doctors offices that I'm aware of were doing it.

It makes some sense. If you want to follow the GBD idea of "focused protection", there's a high overlap between patients at a doctor's office and those most vulnerable to COVID. I.e. my wife's office sees lots of elderly patients and those with chronic conditions often. The ones that are young and healthy come in for an annual checkup, if that. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 17, 2022, 11:28:21 AM
And for some reason, folks who go to a doc's office can be sick, with something.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 18, 2022, 07:26:55 AM
Why???


An omicron-specific booster could be ready by August, the CEO of U.S. biotech firm Moderna told Reuters, but the firm is still gathering clinical data to determine whether that vaccine would offer better protection than a new dose of the existing jab.

"We believe a booster will be needed. I don't know yet if it is going to be the existing vaccine, omicron-only, or bivalent: Omicron and existing vaccine, two mRNA in one dose."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 18, 2022, 07:36:31 AM
I would get an Omicron enhanced booster in a few months if available and approved.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 18, 2022, 07:42:06 AM
August is 6 months away.

Omicron is not going to be around. We're 2.5 months into it and it's mostly petered out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on February 18, 2022, 07:44:09 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 18, 2022, 07:42:06 AM
August is 6 months away.

Omicron is not going to be around. We're 2.5 months into it and it's mostly petered out.
Seems like the right time to sell some Moderna stock then
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 18, 2022, 08:07:20 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 18, 2022, 07:36:31 AM
I would get an Omicron enhanced booster in a few months if available and approved.
I wouldn't.  I've most definitely already been heavily exposed to Omicron.  

Unless/until they start coming out with targeted/early expectation annual shots, I'm done with "general boosters" or shots that are for prior variants that are now gone.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 18, 2022, 08:21:00 AM
I figure we're in for annual shots, like the flu, if they had an Omicron version, great, I'd take it.  It might offer some protection against Omega.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 18, 2022, 08:28:25 AM



(https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/2JoNCu-qlvLStq14h9fEbU6w4m0j3pqc9yN0EccW3meJFKvIxaAfD-Zu0aIs2bHv2aYa4BppBkRIsscRSXEQ5kvqG8SaRZgyfL3Sa_TI9PSNK2bMRlGXy8IvpI2layMqSpIkmB4wFQFuIGEjKYbERnBB2gszWEcPUWSiDZArlJxnWa4rWXvQeEqO5Q2aAy8dNSTa8G9a=s0-d-e1-ft#https://static01.nyt.com/images/2022/02/16/multimedia/morning-us-deaths-trump-share/morning-us-deaths-trump-share-articleLarge.png)


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 18, 2022, 08:48:30 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 18, 2022, 08:21:00 AM
I figure we're in for annual shots, like the flu, if they had an Omicron version, great, I'd take it.  It might offer some protection against Omega.


In the USA, the flu's annual shot is targeted to a couple of the most likely future strains.  I would be willing to take a COVID shot that is targeted to the NEXT anticipated strain if it's really possible to do that.

A general one, or one targeted at the LAST strain, is of little interest to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 18, 2022, 08:54:19 AM
Quote from: utee94 on February 18, 2022, 08:48:30 AM
In the USA, the flu's annual shot is targeted to a couple of the most likely future strains.  I would be willing to take a COVID shot that is targeted to the NEXT anticipated strain if it's really possible to do that.

A general one, or one targeted at the LAST strain, is of little interest to me.
Same. Just feels like a money grab to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 18, 2022, 08:59:32 AM
The future strain is apt to be similar to the last strain.

I'd take a new vaccine in a few months if recommended.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 18, 2022, 09:36:42 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 18, 2022, 08:59:32 AM
The future strain is apt to be similar to the last strain.

I'd take a new vaccine in a few months if recommended.
This is already demonstrably false.  Omicron is very different from prior strains and the vaccines targeted at prior strains are not working very well against Omicron.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 18, 2022, 09:41:24 AM
I disagree, the current vaccines do provide some efficacy against Omicron, especially with the booster.  I think a variant would be similar.  "Not working very well" is not the same as "not working at all", especially when one looks at how serious Omicron would be vaxxed versus not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 18, 2022, 09:47:48 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 18, 2022, 09:41:24 AM
I disagree, the current vaccines do provide some efficacy against Omicron, especially with the booster.  I think a variant would be similar.  "Not working very well" is not the same as "not working at all", especially when one looks at how serious Omicron would be vaxxed versus not.

Does it work some?  Seems to, although the data aren't supporting that severe outcomes are any different between two shots, and a booster.

Since the practical (and now stated) purpose of the vaccine, is to prevent severe illness, since it does not prevent infection and spread, then the difference between two and three shots is statistically insignificant at this point.

So then now, it's a matter of risk-utility, and people in higher risk groups should probably consider it more strongly than people in lower risk groups.

What I believe to be an absolute, is that further boosters should not be mandated nor considered for endeavors like travel, or employment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 18, 2022, 10:01:19 AM
The COVID-19 Booster Shot Is Critical to Induce Immunity Against the Omicron Variant - NFCR (https://www.nfcr.org/blog/the-covid-19-booster-shot-is-critical-to-induce-immunity-against-the-omicron-variant-2022-mw/?gclid=Cj0KCQiApL2QBhC8ARIsAGMm-KGc-xPtYwofw5qWDCtdZ60H-bUuIJYs3pwGbgQg0NYDJpP1qtDBzA4aAhr0EALw_wcB)

According to a new study published in the journal Cell (https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.cell.com_cell_fulltext_S0092-2D8674-2821-2901496-2D3&d=DwMGaQ&c=WO-RGvefibhHBZq3fL85hQ&r=bCSNTllPP3FXyqgHC35DzSoTrnM9noh-yxi2YlqqqQQ&m=usi0PQj19EM3vw28R47V5ILSPS7kJgaNBDr_m7Vmlyxboh5oMX7jbR-SL0kXR7fW&s=B2shMZupt8xla0bunuim3E2vNRZTw9d4_2E3n_Qjtqw&e=) on January 6, 2022, by researchers at the Ragon Institute of MGH, MIT, and Harvard, neutralizing antibodies against Omicron were not detected in the blood samples from people who had received two doses of mRNA vaccines (Pfizer or Moderna) or one dose of J&J vaccine. This finding indicates that the protection against the Omicron variant is very weak even if you are qualified as “fully vaccinated.” On the other hand, individuals who received booster shots of mRNA vaccines exhibited potent neutralization of Omicron. 

Although the level of neutralizing antibodies against Omicron induced after the third dose vaccination is lower than the antibody level against the COVID-19 wild type strain or Delta variant, the result of this study still demonstrates the critical role of booster shots in generating the needed immune response against the Omicron variant.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 18, 2022, 10:02:34 AM
Waning 2-Dose and 3-Dose Effectiveness of mRNA Vaccines Against COVID-19–Associated Emergency Department and Urgent Care Encounters and Hospitalizations Among Adults During Periods of Delta and Omicron Variant Predominance — VISION Network, 10 States, August 2021–January 2022 | MMWR (cdc.gov) (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7107e2.htm)

Vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19–associated emergency department/urgent care (ED/UC) visits and hospitalizations was higher after the third dose than after the second dose but waned with time since vaccination. During the Omicron-predominant period, VE against COVID-19–associated ED/UC visits and hospitalizations was 87% and 91%, respectively, during the 2 months after a third dose and decreased to 66% and 78% by the fourth month after a third dose. Protection against hospitalizations exceeded that against ED/UC visits.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 18, 2022, 10:03:18 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 18, 2022, 10:01:19 AM
The COVID-19 Booster Shot Is Critical to Induce Immunity Against the Omicron Variant - NFCR (https://www.nfcr.org/blog/the-covid-19-booster-shot-is-critical-to-induce-immunity-against-the-omicron-variant-2022-mw/?gclid=Cj0KCQiApL2QBhC8ARIsAGMm-KGc-xPtYwofw5qWDCtdZ60H-bUuIJYs3pwGbgQg0NYDJpP1qtDBzA4aAhr0EALw_wcB)

According to a new study published in the journal Cell (https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.cell.com_cell_fulltext_S0092-2D8674-2821-2901496-2D3&d=DwMGaQ&c=WO-RGvefibhHBZq3fL85hQ&r=bCSNTllPP3FXyqgHC35DzSoTrnM9noh-yxi2YlqqqQQ&m=usi0PQj19EM3vw28R47V5ILSPS7kJgaNBDr_m7Vmlyxboh5oMX7jbR-SL0kXR7fW&s=B2shMZupt8xla0bunuim3E2vNRZTw9d4_2E3n_Qjtqw&e=) on January 6, 2022, by researchers at the Ragon Institute of MGH, MIT, and Harvard, neutralizing antibodies against Omicron were not detected in the blood samples from people who had received two doses of mRNA vaccines (Pfizer or Moderna) or one dose of J&J vaccine. This finding indicates that the protection against the Omicron variant is very weak even if you are qualified as “fully vaccinated.” On the other hand, individuals who received booster shots of mRNA vaccines exhibited potent neutralization of Omicron.

Although the level of neutralizing antibodies against Omicron induced after the third dose vaccination is lower than the antibody level against the COVID-19 wild type strain or Delta variant, the result of this study still demonstrates the critical role of booster shots in generating the needed immune response against the Omicron variant.



I've already posted the data from the UK about severe outcomes in the UK with respect to Omicron variant.

No statistically significant difference between 2 shots and 3 shots, in all age cohorts under 70.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 18, 2022, 10:07:41 AM
As often is the case, one has competing studies.  From what I've read, overall, a third dose provides meaningful protection against Omicron, at least for a few months.

The UK uses a different vaccine.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against Omicron or Delta infection | medRxiv (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.30.21268565v1)

Conclusions Two doses of COVID-19 vaccines are unlikely to protect against infection by Omicron. A third dose provides some protection in the immediate term, but substantially less than against Delta. Our results may be confounded by behaviours that we were unable to account for in our analyses. Further research is needed to examine protection against severe outcomes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 18, 2022, 10:11:48 AM
There's also a difference in the basis of the study or research.

The ones that simply measure antibody response levels aren't of much interest to me, without correlation to physical outcomes.

The ones that measure actual outcomes, specifically severe ones, are the ones that interest me.

Either way, I'm comfortable with eschewing further general boosters, but would be interested in ones specifically targeted at future or expected strains.  

Others are free to make different decisions.

What I believe is certain, is that no mandates nor expectations for travel/employment/etc. should be tied to any further vaccination.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 18, 2022, 10:20:26 AM
Booster Shots 90% Effective at Preventing Omicron Hospitalizations: CDC Data (webmd.com) (https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20220124/booster-shots-effective-preventing-omicron-hospitalizations-cdc)

I think it's pretty clear, the booster offers some protection against Omicron, though that will lessen with time.

Jan. 24, 2022 -- Booster shots of the Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines (https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/covid-19-vaccine) appear to be highly effective at preventing hospitalizations due to the Omicron variant, according to three new CDC studies published on Friday.

The extra doses were 90% effective at keeping people out of the hospital after infection and 82% effective at preventing emergency department and urgent care visits.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 18, 2022, 10:26:25 AM
Feel free to continue getting boosters as you like.

I'll wait for shots that are targeted at expected NEW variants, the same as the flu shot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 18, 2022, 10:28:16 AM
If a new booster is credibly recommended, I'll get in line.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 18, 2022, 10:39:33 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 18, 2022, 10:20:26 AM
Booster Shots 90% Effective at Preventing Omicron Hospitalizations: CDC Data (webmd.com) (https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20220124/booster-shots-effective-preventing-omicron-hospitalizations-cdc)

I think it's pretty clear, the booster offers some protection against Omicron, though that will lessen with time.

Jan. 24, 2022 -- Booster shots of the Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines (https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/covid-19-vaccine) appear to be highly effective at preventing hospitalizations due to the Omicron variant, according to three new CDC studies published on Friday.

The extra doses were 90% effective at keeping people out of the hospital after infection and 82% effective at preventing emergency department and urgent care visits.


Is it really the booster, or is it natural immunity due to prior infection? Or is it the much less severe variant? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 18, 2022, 10:44:26 AM
The studies compare outcomes of folks with boosters to folks with lower vaccine levels, and the results, to me, seem rather clear.

If some in one group had a prior infection, so would the same number in the other group, perhaps even more so, as the unvaccinated would be more likely to have had a prior infection.

These are pretty large based studies.  Anyway, I too am against mandated vaccines except perhaps in small select groups.  I would get an update.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 18, 2022, 10:53:33 AM
Quote from: utee94 on February 18, 2022, 09:36:42 AM
This is already demonstrably false.  Omicron is very different from prior strains and the vaccines targeted at prior strains are not working very well against Omicron.
The reason the vaccine doesn't work well against Omicron is that it's got an R0 of ~10, and the level of antibodies that the vaccine induces isn't enough to fight off the initial onslaught of such a transmissible virus...

Where the vaccine helps is that because your body is already "trained" to ramp up antibody production (as well as generate killer T cells recognizing the virus), your immune system catches up really quickly--faster than it would without the vaccine--and then keeps the outcomes from becoming severe.

I don't see another vaccine shot or an Omicron-specific shot necessarily helping very much against a future variant if the future variant has an R0 of 10 or higher.

So unless significant evidence is shown to prove it's worthwhile, I'm not getting another booster.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 18, 2022, 11:52:55 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 18, 2022, 10:53:33 AM

So unless significant evidence is shown to prove it's worthwhile, I'm not getting another booster.

Yup.  

If they could somehow target emerging/expected variants in a timely manner I'd consider it.  But the current process doesn't seem to allow for bringing the shots to market quick enough to capture that moment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 18, 2022, 12:22:05 PM
If it's recommended for my age, I'll review the recco and likely get one.  I expect one to be an annual thing going forward.  The downside appears to be minimal, to me.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 18, 2022, 12:28:47 PM
I think there's a reasonable downside to the idea of annual shots-- for the political football of COVID specifically, anyway-- because there's always the opportunity for the government to do something non-sciency and make them required for travel, employment, etc. 

If they're targeted for emerging strains I'd say there's reasonable scientific justification for getting one, as long as it's not mandated.

If they're not targeted, that justification disappears and I'll take my chances at getting a mild cold, and completely avoid the potential of giving the government an opportunity to extend further its capability of exerting control over my daily life.

People that fear getting worse than a mild cold, should still have all opportunity to get whatever shots they want.  This is nothing more than a risk-utility analysis.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 18, 2022, 01:00:48 PM
as far as Im concerned they can have yearly shots all they want but just dont have any government mandates
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 18, 2022, 01:15:30 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on February 18, 2022, 01:00:48 PM
as far as Im concerned they can have yearly shots all they want but just dont have any government mandates

Sure. No government mandates, and no linking it as a requirement for travel, employment, or anything else that attempts to curtail your rights to Life Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 18, 2022, 02:51:28 PM
Private entities like cruise lines can mandate on their own of course.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 18, 2022, 03:11:34 PM
Of course.

And private citizens can choose who they want to patronize with their wallets of course.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 18, 2022, 03:14:39 PM
yep have no problem with private mandates
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 18, 2022, 03:21:23 PM
I recall when smoking was a divider, restaurants would have sections for both, though it was almost as absurd as an airliner with a smoking section.  Our restaurant in Cincy was nonsmoking from the start and it limited business somewhat.  I can imagine some preferring fully vaxxed venues and others preferring the other.

I suppose it's a bit like seatbelt laws in one sense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 18, 2022, 03:35:10 PM
My first flights from USA to Europe still had smoking sections.  It was pretty awful.

In the USA at least, for the example of cruise lines specifically, I'd expect a company-enabled vaccine mandate to diminish customer demand fairly significantly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on February 19, 2022, 01:31:39 AM
There are a lot of older people who go on cruises who would not go if exposure to unvaccinated cruisers was involved. Perhaps we need COVID cruises and VACCINATED cruises. I would guess it would be more difficult to recruit employees to work on the COVID cruises.
Cruise lines would probably have to pay the employees more, charge more, and expect to be turned away at ports for COVID cruises when infections break-out.
Maybe things will change now that Omicron has moved through, but I suspect the elderly will in general be more hesitant to cruise. And since they often pay for their extended families to cruise with them, there will be fewer cruisers. We are in a bad place, but maybe it will improve.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2022, 06:39:45 AM
We did a transatlantic from Lisbon to Miami in November. Had to be vaccinated.

We have a Key West and Bahama cruise coming up in April. Requires vaccination.

Seems kinda silly at this point, knowing that vaccinated people can spread just as well as unvaccinated people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 19, 2022, 07:05:06 AM
COVID-19 takes serious toll on heart health—a full year after recovery | Science | AAAS (https://www.science.org/content/article/covid-19-takes-serious-toll-heart-health-full-year-after-recovery?fbclid=IwAR1nyRre5lWV-jk05dQxr5yXPZAZyvQXQPFzy1DwLeDUvMTMzp0iqiO6xuQ)

 In an analysis of more than 11 million U.S. veterans’ health records, researchers found the risk of 20 different heart and vessel maladies was substantially increased (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-01689-3#MOESM1) in veterans who had COVID-19 1 year earlier, compared with those who didn’t. The risk rose with severity of initial disease and extended to every outcome the team examined, including heart attacks, arrhythmias, strokes, cardiac arrest, and more. Even people who never went to the hospital had more cardiovascular disease than those who were never infected.

The results are “stunning … worse than I expected, for sure,” says Eric Topol, a cardiologist at Scripps Research. “All of these are very serious disorders. … If anybody ever thought that COVID was like the flu this should be one of the most powerful data sets to point out it’s not.” He adds that the new study “may be the most impressive Long Covid paper we have seen to date.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2022, 07:11:18 AM
From last week:

(https://i.imgur.com/jQcUNyi.png)

Here is your lag in reporting of deaths. From yesterday:

(https://i.imgur.com/OOvCWEy.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2022, 07:13:01 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/l9Au8Z9.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 19, 2022, 07:15:10 AM
Just how the virus causes long-term damage to the heart and blood vessels remains a matter of debate and active research. One possible mechanism is inflammation of the endothelial cells that line the inside of the heart and blood vessels, Al-Aly says. But the researchers also include a laundry list of potential mechanisms, including lingering damage from direct viral invasion of the heart muscle; elevated levels of proinflammatory chemical messengers called cytokines that lead to scarring of the heart; and persistent virus (https://assets.researchsquare.com/files/rs-1139035/v1_covered.pdf?c=1640020576) in sites not effectively dealt with by the immune system. “The putative mechanistic pathways are still in the realm of speculation or hypothesis,” Al-Aly says.

Interesting because the vaccine can cause myocarditis in young men (mostly) perhaps due to a cytokine explosion.  That would tie two things together, perhaps.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 19, 2022, 09:16:13 AM
When to keep wearing COVID face masks | Popular Science (popsci.com) (https://www.popsci.com/health/when-to-wear-face-masks-covid/?fbclid=IwAR0w2vHl-K02kkbM11MWAsy0DkxZGut9Yf3inJNBV0PUQue9sq-YvMO9VnU)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 19, 2022, 09:20:14 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 19, 2022, 07:05:06 AM
COVID-19 takes serious toll on heart health—a full year after recovery | Science | AAAS (https://www.science.org/content/article/covid-19-takes-serious-toll-heart-health-full-year-after-recovery?fbclid=IwAR1nyRre5lWV-jk05dQxr5yXPZAZyvQXQPFzy1DwLeDUvMTMzp0iqiO6xuQ)

In an analysis of more than 11 million U.S. veterans’ health records, researchers found the risk of 20 different heart and vessel maladies was substantially increased (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-01689-3#MOESM1) in veterans who had COVID-19 1 year earlier, compared with those who didn’t. The risk rose with severity of initial disease and extended to every outcome the team examined, including heart attacks, arrhythmias, strokes, cardiac arrest, and more. Even people who never went to the hospital had more cardiovascular disease than those who were never infected.

The results are “stunning … worse than I expected, for sure,” says Eric Topol, a cardiologist at Scripps Research. “All of these are very serious disorders. … If anybody ever thought that COVID was like the flu this should be one of the most powerful data sets to point out it’s not.” He adds that the new study “may be the most impressive Long Covid paper we have seen to date.”

Thank God we dont have delta to worry about any more
Im sure the above study would find a much better finding with omicron
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 19, 2022, 10:12:29 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on February 19, 2022, 01:31:39 AM
There are a lot of older people who go on cruises who would not go if exposure to unvaccinated cruisers was involved. Perhaps we need COVID cruises and VACCINATED cruises. I would guess it would be more difficult to recruit employees to work on the COVID cruises.
Cruise lines would probably have to pay the employees more, charge more, and expect to be turned away at ports for COVID cruises when infections break-out.
Maybe things will change now that Omicron has moved through, but I suspect the elderly will in general be more hesitant to cruise. And since they often pay for their extended families to cruise with them, there will be fewer cruisers. We are in a bad place, but maybe it will improve.
I think there's probably some segment of the market that's older people who are concerned with vaccination.

I think in general the target demographic of the American cruise industry, is not particularly concerned with vaccination, regardless of age.  And a lot of them are actively and vocally anti-vax.

My 80yo parents are big into cruising, and they're both vaccinated and boosted, but they'd most likely actively choose the anti-vax cruise line for their own personal beliefs about freedom and mandates.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 19, 2022, 11:05:03 AM
I decided I would never do a US cruise again.  We're doing Europe, and in a year, one from Abu Dabi to Athens, Greece.  

I find the European cruises to have a very different clientel from the US.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 19, 2022, 12:07:28 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 18, 2022, 10:44:26 AM
The studies compare outcomes of folks with boosters to folks with lower vaccine levels, and the results, to me, seem rather clear.

If some in one group had a prior infection, so would the same number in the other group, perhaps even more so, as the unvaccinated would be more likely to have had a prior infection.

These are pretty large based studies.  Anyway, I too am against mandated vaccines except perhaps in small select groups.  I would get an update.
I was leaning away from getting the booster, but I think I might try to get one today on the way to the Bockfest at the local brewery
Talked to a couple at the Super bowl party and a good friend last night that had COVID recently.  the couple said it kicked them hard for 4 weeks.  The good friend said it nearly killed him and was down for 3 weeks losing over 30 pounds.  He didn't look too good yet.
none of the 3 of them were vaxed.  None of the 3 of them have changed their minds about the vax.
if this didn't change their mind, nothing will.
but, their stories may cause me to get boosted - there's some good in almost everything
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 19, 2022, 02:05:42 PM
The problem of "long COVID" is scary to me.  And as noted, hopefully Omicron will not cause that as much, we don't know yet.  If it's a cytokine related problem that likely is going to be true, if.

I'll go max protect and rush two.  That always works.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 20, 2022, 07:42:21 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 19, 2022, 11:05:03 AM
I decided I would never do a US cruise again.  We're doing Europe, and in a year, one from Abu Dabi to Athens, Greece. 

I find the European cruises to have a very different clientel from the US.
Depends on the cruise line.

If you choose Carnival, well, be prepared for the freak show.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 20, 2022, 07:44:08 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 19, 2022, 12:07:28 PM
I was leaning away from getting the booster, but I think I might try to get one today on the way to the Bockfest at the local brewery
Talked to a couple at the Super bowl party and a good friend last night that had COVID recently.  the couple said it kicked them hard for 4 weeks.  The good friend said it nearly killed him and was down for 3 weeks losing over 30 pounds.  He didn't look too good yet.
none of the 3 of them were vaxed.  None of the 3 of them have changed their minds about the vax.
if this didn't change their mind, nothing will.
but, their stories may cause me to get boosted - there's some good in almost everything
I'd be willing to bet that these people had vitamin D deficiency.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 20, 2022, 08:14:34 AM
We've been using NCL, and in Europe, their cruises are very good for the money, in my view.  The Abu Dabi cruise is pricey though.  I don't mind being on a huge ship.  We get a balcony room and it's fine for us.

My focus is on visiting European cities in one trip to get a flavor of what they have in case we want to revisit longer later.  We've done one river cruise, it was a bit disappointing but it wasn't on a name brand operation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 20, 2022, 08:33:58 AM
We are pretty tied to Azamara, but we will be doing an Oceana this Fall, from "Rome" to Miami.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 20, 2022, 09:31:49 AM
I've only done Carnival cruises here in the US, which are basically floating Walmarts, but we still had a great time.  We did the one with the water park and water slides on top when the kids were 6 and 8 years old, they loved it.  The food was decent and we bought the drink package, so it was AOK with me.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 20, 2022, 09:35:24 AM
I did Carnival once with the kids, and I think it's a good option when you have kids.  If you step up half a notch to NCL, you'll see many fewer families with kids, and in European cruises, it's a different clientel entirely.

My wife and I sat most of an afternoon drinking at a bar on NCL once and neither of us had any semblance of a buzz.  The cruise we did in the Med we didn't have the drink package, which it turns out is VERY expensive, but they hide the costs pretty well.  

To steer this back to COVID, NCL is requiring vaccinations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 20, 2022, 10:36:50 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 20, 2022, 07:44:08 AM
I'd be willing to bet that these people had vitamin D deficiency.
very possible

it's winter here

the youngest of the 3 is my age and eats healthy and is outdoors quite a bit, but it's still possible
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 20, 2022, 10:55:56 AM
LONDON (AP) — People with COVID-19 won’t be legally required to self-isolate in England starting in the coming week, the U.K. government has announced, as part of a plan for “living with COVID” that is also likely to see testing for the coronavirus scaled back.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson said ending all of the legal restrictions brought in to curb the spread of the virus will let people in the U.K. “protect ourselves without restricting our freedoms.” He is expected to lay out details of the plan in Parliament on Monday.

“I’m not saying that we should throw caution to the winds, but now is the moment for everybody to get their confidence back,” Johnson told the BBC in an interview broadcast Sunday.

“We’ve reached a stage where we think you can shift the balance away from state mandation, away from banning certain courses of action, compelling certain courses of action, in favor of encouraging personal responsibility.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 20, 2022, 05:14:42 PM
Those attending Sunday's Nebraska women's basketball game will not be required to wear masks.

An NU spokesman confirmed to KLIN that Husker Athletics will "continue to follow LLCHD guidelines so at this time there is no mask requirement." The Lincoln Lancaster County Health Department allowed its latest Directed Health Measure requiring masks to expire last week.

The women's basketball game against Minnesota will be the first home basketball game since the latest DHM ran out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 20, 2022, 06:01:56 PM
Average daily COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations are continuing to fall in the U.S., an indicator that the omicron variant’s hold is weakening across the country.

Total confirmed cases reported Saturday barely exceeded 100,000, a sharp downturn from around 800,850 five weeks ago on Jan. 16, according to Johns Hopkins University data.

In New York, the number of cases went down by more than 50% over the last two weeks.

“I think what’s influencing the decline, of course, is that omicron is starting to run out of people to infect,” said Dr. Thomas Russo, professor and infectious disease chief at the University of Buffalo’s Jacobs School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences.

COVID-19 hospitalizations are down from a national seven-day average of 146,534 on Jan. 20 to 80,185 the week ending in Feb 13, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention COVID data tracker.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SuperMario on February 20, 2022, 06:27:20 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 20, 2022, 08:33:58 AM
We are pretty tied to Azamara, but we will be doing an Oceana this Fall, from "Rome" to Miami.
Rome to Miami? What is that, 3 week cruise? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 20, 2022, 06:50:45 PM
I was looking at a NYC to Rome cruise, it's a once a year deal, sounded kinda neat.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 21, 2022, 07:03:46 AM
How the 1918 flu pandemic mirrors today’s coronavirus crisis - Chicago Tribune (https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-opinion-flashback-1918-flu-pandemic-timeline-htmlstory.html)

Pretty interesting, to me.   I still don't understand why this stuff hits in waves like this.  

(https://i.imgur.com/EXFYEI3.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 21, 2022, 07:09:12 AM
There are 219 virus species that are known to be able to infect humans. The first of these to be discovered was yellow fever virus in 1901, and three to four new species are still being found every year. Extrapolation of the discovery curve suggests that there is still a substantial pool of undiscovered human virus species, although an apparent slow-down in the rate of discovery of species from different families may indicate bounds to the potential range of diversity. More than two-thirds of human viruses can also infect non-human hosts, mainly mammals, and sometimes birds. Many specialist human viruses also have mammalian or avian origins. Indeed, a substantial proportion of mammalian viruses may be capable of crossing the species barrier into humans, although only around half of these are capable of being transmitted by humans and around half again of transmitting well enough to cause major outbreaks. A few possible predictors of species jumps can be identified, including the use of phylogenetically conserved cell receptors. It seems almost inevitable that new human viruses will continue to emerge, mainly from other mammals and birds, for the foreseeable future. For this reason, an effective global surveillance system for novel viruses is needed.

Human viruses: discovery and emergence (nih.gov) (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3427559/)

How a Few Sick Tobacco Plants Led Scientists to Unravel the Truth About Viruses | Science | Smithsonian Magazine (https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/what-are-viruses-history-tobacco-mosaic-disease-180974480/)

When he published his findings in 1898, Beijerinck called the infectious, filtered substance contagium vivum fluidum—a contagious, living fluid. As a shorthand, he reintroduced the word “virus” from the Latin for a liquid poison (https://www.britannica.com/science/virus) to refer specifically to this new kind of pathogen.

 In 1935, chemist Wendell M. Stanley (https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/chemistry/1946/stanley/facts/) created a crystallized sample of the virus that could be visualized with X-rays, earning him a share of the 1946 Nobel Prize. (The clearest X-ray diffraction image of tobacco mosaic virus came from Rosalind Franklin, in 1955 (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/23170130_After_the_double_helix_-_Rosalind_Franklin's_research_on_Tobacco_mosaic_virus), after her contributions to the discovery of DNA’s double helix.) The first clear, direct photographs (https://www.jbc.org/content/139/1/325.full.pdf) of tobacco mosaic virus would not come until 1941 with the invention of powerful electron transmission microscopes, which revealed the pathogen’s skinny, sticklike shape.

This was a turning point in the scientific understanding of viruses because visual proof dispelled any doubt of their existence. The images showed that viruses are simple structures made of genetic material wrapped in a solid coat of protein molecules—a far cry from squishy, cellular bacteria. But Beijerinck didn’t live to see his theory validated, as he died in 1931.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 21, 2022, 07:22:09 AM
Quote from: SuperMario on February 20, 2022, 06:27:20 PM
Rome to Miami? What is that, 3 week cruise?
17 days. Stops are Nice, Barcelona, Gibraltar, Tenerife, St. John's and San Juan.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 21, 2022, 09:56:42 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/jPnRsh7.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 23, 2022, 07:47:40 AM
Very interesting report here.

Reinfection with different subtypes of Omicron is possible (https://en.ssi.dk/news/news/2022/reinfection-with-different-subtypes-of-omicron-is-possible)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on February 23, 2022, 09:33:55 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 19, 2022, 09:16:13 AM
When to keep wearing COVID face masks | Popular Science (popsci.com) (https://www.popsci.com/health/when-to-wear-face-masks-covid/?fbclid=IwAR0w2vHl-K02kkbM11MWAsy0DkxZGut9Yf3inJNBV0PUQue9sq-YvMO9VnU)
most masks and especially cloth masks are not going to stop anyone from catching covid. yeah, calling bullshit on this article, sorry CDC.

the covid virus particles bonded to cough/sneezing/breath droplets are too small for most masks to filter out. you're going to get exposure if you're wearing any masks unless you're wearing a correctly put on KN95 or N95 mask.

wearing any type of mask when you're infected (and a lot of people are infected without even know it- even vaccinated ones) will absolutely help reduce the amount of virus particles from getting out and into the air when you breathe and cough and sneeze - which is great and certainly helps everyone. but it's not giving the actual wearer real protection- especially with studies suggesting that Omicron is able to infect individuals with a smaller viral load than previous strains.

the only real protection you'll have from a mask is if you're wearing a KN95 or N95 that is put on properly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on February 23, 2022, 09:36:59 AM
Quote from: utee94 on February 21, 2022, 09:56:42 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/jPnRsh7.png)
first one was a great movie. rest kinda sucked- including the new one. 

and....that's kinda true.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 23, 2022, 09:37:11 AM
What the Omicron wave is revealing about human immunity (nature.com) (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00214-3)

Useful summary, if a bit long.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 23, 2022, 09:38:50 AM
Presuming that wearing a mask by a person infected and contagious does cut down on transmission, mask wearing would be at least somewhat effective, which I believe is what the CDC is saying.

The articles cited are about rates of transmission, not protecting the wearer (unless I missed one).

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on February 23, 2022, 09:39:33 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 19, 2022, 06:39:45 AM
We did a transatlantic from Lisbon to Miami in November. Had to be vaccinated.

We have a Key West and Bahama cruise coming up in April. Requires vaccination.

Seems kinda silly at this point, knowing that vaccinated people can spread just as well as unvaccinated people.
yeah, pretty much agree. have to get on with life and try to get back to normal at this point. 

vaccine will protect you from serious illness/hospital/death - in most if not all cases. So if you're really worried about covid, take the vaccines and boosters- get the protection- and let's have everyone get on with life.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 23, 2022, 09:44:50 AM
Quote from: utee94 on February 21, 2022, 09:56:42 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/jPnRsh7.png)
"Kill'em,Kill'em all" - Thomas "Stonewall" Jackson,December 1862
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 23, 2022, 10:54:05 AM
I disagree that vaccinated people spread it as much as unvaxxed.  I can't see how that is true at all.

Vaccinated folks who contracted COVID can spread it, but fewer get COVID.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 23, 2022, 11:31:51 AM
The Science Behind Why Children Fare Better With Covid-19 - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-science-behind-why-children-fare-better-with-covid-19-11645452003)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 23, 2022, 11:41:35 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on February 23, 2022, 09:39:33 AM
and let's have everyone get on with life.

Everyone already IS on with life, as far as my daily living goes.  And has been pretty much since May 2020.

I honestly don't worry about the Lockdown Larrys and Mask-up Marvins in other regions.  If they want to keep living like it's March 2020, they're welcome to do so.  It doesn't affect my day-to-day at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 23, 2022, 11:51:34 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 23, 2022, 10:54:05 AM
I disagree that vaccinated people spread it as much as unvaxxed.  I can't see how that is true at all.

Vaccinated folks who contracted COVID can spread it, but fewer get COVID.
Now that I'm vaxed I can honestly say,many of "us" appear to have left our guard down thinking that "we" have a leg up
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on February 23, 2022, 12:23:15 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 23, 2022, 10:54:05 AM
I disagree that vaccinated people spread it as much as unvaxxed.  I can't see how that is true at all.

Vaccinated folks who contracted COVID can spread it, but fewer get COVID.
A vaccinated person who has become infected spreads it no differently than an infected person who has not been vaccinated.

This past November the WHO, said vaccines were 60 percent protective against spreading the virus prior to the arrival of delta. That number dropped to 40 percent post-Delta. Omicron has worsened the problem and dropped that number way lower no doubt as it is far more transmissible and has a way increase in immune escape- which has lead to more infections - and once infected - vaccinated spread covid same as unvaccinated.

Israeli study showed that even a 4th shot of the vaccine is basically hopeless vs preventing Omicron infection....you know....the most dominant strain in the world these past few months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 23, 2022, 12:30:34 PM
Booster Shots 90% Effective at Preventing Omicron Hospitalizations: CDC Data (webmd.com) (https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20220124/booster-shots-effective-preventing-omicron-hospitalizations-cdc#:~:text=Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization with,shot restored protection to 90%.)

Do mRNA Boosters Protect Against Omicron? (verywellhealth.com) (https://www.verywellhealth.com/mrna-booster-effective-against-omicron-5217299)

No Omicron immunity without booster, study finds – Harvard Gazette (https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2022/01/no-omicron-immunity-without-booster-study-finds/)

I'd opine the data show the booster offers decent protection against Omicron, at least shorter term, but yes, as I said, a breakthrough infection will be contagious.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 23, 2022, 12:43:03 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 23, 2022, 12:30:34 PM
Booster Shots 90% Effective at Preventing Omicron Hospitalizations: CDC Data (webmd.com) (https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20220124/booster-shots-effective-preventing-omicron-hospitalizations-cdc#:~:text=Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization with,shot restored protection to 90%.)

Do mRNA Boosters Protect Against Omicron? (verywellhealth.com) (https://www.verywellhealth.com/mrna-booster-effective-against-omicron-5217299)

No Omicron immunity without booster, study finds – Harvard Gazette (https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2022/01/no-omicron-immunity-without-booster-study-finds/)

I'd opine the data show the booster offers decent protection against Omicron, at least shorter term, but yes, as I said, a breakthrough infection will be contagious.


are they saying a booster gives you more immunity against omicron then those that have actually had the virus

Im kinda skeptical if so
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 23, 2022, 12:49:51 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on February 23, 2022, 12:43:03 PM
are they saying a booster gives you more immunity against omicron then those that have actually had the virus

Im kinda skeptical if so
I don't think that is known either way at this point, Omicron is too recent for studies I suspect.

I would guess immunity from having had it is stronger than from the three shots, but that is a guess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 23, 2022, 12:57:49 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 23, 2022, 12:49:51 PM
I don't think that is known either way at this point, Omicron is too recent for studies I suspect.

I would guess immunity from having had it is stronger than from the three shots, but that is a guess.
I would be willing to bet the CDC has plenty of data on this but wont publish it

omicron has been around world wide for at least 3 months 

a simple test for antibodies would at least show the results for the first 90 days
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on February 23, 2022, 01:05:11 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 23, 2022, 12:30:34 PM
Booster Shots 90% Effective at Preventing Omicron Hospitalizations: CDC Data (webmd.com) (https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20220124/booster-shots-effective-preventing-omicron-hospitalizations-cdc#:~:text=Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization with,shot restored protection to 90%.)

Do mRNA Boosters Protect Against Omicron? (verywellhealth.com) (https://www.verywellhealth.com/mrna-booster-effective-against-omicron-5217299)

No Omicron immunity without booster, study finds – Harvard Gazette (https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2022/01/no-omicron-immunity-without-booster-study-finds/)

I'd opine the data show the booster offers decent protection against Omicron, at least shorter term, but yes, as I said, a breakthrough infection will be contagious.
yeah ok, except we were not talking about preventing hospitalizations. we were talking about infection/spread.

You're risk of hospitalization from Omicron without being vaccinated is low as is. A 90% reduction in that risk is great- and obviously age and weight have a lot to do with serious complications from this virus- but most peoples risk is already extremely low from being hospitalized from Omicron infection even if unvaccinated. An unvaccinated persons chances of being hospitalized with COVID is less than 1% (.89%).

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/354938/adults-estimates-covid-hospitalization-risk.aspx

https://nypost.com/2022/01/18/fourth-covid-vaccine-still-doesnt-stop-omicron-israeli-study/

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-risk-of-vaccinated-covid-transmission-is-not-low/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 23, 2022, 01:11:04 PM
Heres something on this subject which you might find interesting


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMsAJzwKwVY
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on February 23, 2022, 02:12:46 PM
CDC withholding booster data...hmmm...wonder why lol? 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xo-xJH_u7Mk


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10537161/CDC-refusing-publish-data-collected-booster-effectiveness-aged-18-49.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/20/health/covid-cdc-data.html
https://nypost.com/2022/02/22/cdc-withholding-covid-data-over-fears-of-misinterpretation/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 23, 2022, 02:17:07 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on February 23, 2022, 12:57:49 PM
a simple test for antibodies would at least show the results for the first 90 days
IMHO antibody tests are probably not really conclusive either way... What we saw with Omicron is that an infection can take hold even if you have some level of antibodies in your system. Showing that you still have antibodies circulating hasn't seemed to keep people from getting infected with Omicron. 

Perhaps if natural infection resulted in MUCH higher and more persistent antibody LEVELS over time, it would at least be suggestive that it offers more protection than vaccine-derived or potentially Delta/Alpha/OG-Strain natural infection, there's something there. But it may not be conclusive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 23, 2022, 02:22:29 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 23, 2022, 02:17:07 PM
IMHO antibody tests are probably not really conclusive either way... What we saw with Omicron is that an infection can take hold even if you have some level of antibodies in your system. Showing that you still have antibodies circulating hasn't seemed to keep people from getting infected with Omicron.

Perhaps if natural infection resulted in MUCH higher and more persistent antibody LEVELS over time, it would at least be suggestive that it offers more protection than vaccine-derived or potentially Delta/Alpha/OG-Strain natural infection, there's something there. But it may not be conclusive.
everyone knows you can get omicron even if you had delta or the vacs Im talking about antibodies from omicron which does a very good job of preventing serious cases of delta and omicron
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 23, 2022, 05:14:46 PM
CDC updates guidance for intervals between COVID-19 vaccine doses | TheHill (https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/595459-cdc-updates-guidance-for-intervals-between-covid-19-vaccine-doses)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 23, 2022, 05:18:39 PM
Booster Vaccination to Reduce SARS-CoV-2 Transmission and Infection | Infectious Diseases | JAMA | JAMA Network (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2788105)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 24, 2022, 09:10:28 PM
As of 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) has only declared two diseases as eradicated by humans: Smallpox and the veterinary virus Rinderpest. Provided by American Society for Microbiology
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 26, 2022, 08:53:42 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/wVv4MAK.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/iLnWsOT.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 26, 2022, 11:11:13 PM
Studies offer further evidence that coronavirus pandemic began in animals in Wuhan market - CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/26/health/coronavirus-origins-studies/index.html)

This will lead to some, um, discussion, by folks who aren't virologists even.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 26, 2022, 11:34:25 PM
I get to start teaching w/o a mask on Monday.  That's exciting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 26, 2022, 11:41:23 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 26, 2022, 11:34:25 PM
I get to start teaching w/o a mask on Monday.  That's exciting.
thats good news 

its about time 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 26, 2022, 11:45:41 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 26, 2022, 11:11:13 PM
Studies offer further evidence that coronavirus pandemic began in animals in Wuhan market - CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/26/health/coronavirus-origins-studies/index.html)

This will lead to some, um, discussion, by folks who aren't virologists even.
they are dragging this out again sheesh

I thought everybody had debunked the started in an animal theory

theve never been able to find any animal that currently has the virus

course it is in China so who knows

It will be very interesting to see the results when these study results are peer reviewed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 27, 2022, 08:59:20 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 26, 2022, 11:11:13 PM
Studies offer further evidence that coronavirus pandemic began in animals in Wuhan market - CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/26/health/coronavirus-origins-studies/index.html)

This will lead to some, um, discussion, by folks who aren't virologists even.
I stopped reading when I saw that XiNN published this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 27, 2022, 09:07:56 AM
CNN may have published this as a report, but it was published as two scientific studies, yet to be peer reviewed.  I'm sure one "side" will discount it and another will adopt it uncritically.  But just because it's reported on CNN doesn't make it more, or less, credible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 27, 2022, 10:30:44 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 27, 2022, 09:07:56 AM
CNN may have published this as a report, but it was published as two scientific studies, yet to be peer reviewed.  I'm sure one "side" will discount it and another will adopt it uncritically.  But just because it's reported on CNN doesn't make it more, or less, credible.
I don't agree with this at all.

It doesn't mean I won't read it and make up my own mind, but because CNN has spent over two decades transforming itself into a heavily biased and untrustworthy source, the fact that it's reported on CNN does indeed make it less credible.  I view Fox reporting in exactly the same way, there is no difference between the two, other than which side of the aisle they choose to pimp.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 27, 2022, 11:19:03 AM
Ed Zachery
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 27, 2022, 12:06:38 PM
A thing can be reported on CNN and that in itself doesn't make it less factual, to me.  I'm going to check it with other sources, but in this case, they are simply reporting the investigations of others.  I think it absurd to conclude a report has to be wrong simply because CNN reports it.

Or right.

This has been reported fairly widely, not yet by Fox News of course.  The studies themselves may be flawed, but they do exist.

My "notion" is the Wuhan folks sent someone to gather bats for them, and those folks got infected and then went to the market.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 27, 2022, 12:22:32 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 27, 2022, 12:06:38 PM
A thing can be reported on CNN and that in itself doesn't make it less factual, to me.  I'm going to check it with other sources, but in this case, they are simply reporting the investigations of others.  I think it absurd to conclude a report has to be wrong simply because CNN reports it.

Or right.

This has been reported fairly widely, not yet by Fox News of course.  The studies themselves may be flawed, but they do exist.

My "notion" is the Wuhan folks sent someone to gather bats for them, and those folks got infected and then went to the market.
or it is just fake news to get the pressure off China
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 27, 2022, 12:26:00 PM
Fake news in what sense?  Fabricated by someone and then reported?

These could be legitimate studies, and they could be legitimate and incorrect.  I don't know, but I believe there are such studies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 27, 2022, 12:31:51 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 27, 2022, 12:26:00 PM
Fake news in what sense?  Fabricated by someone and then reported?

These could be legitimate studies, and they could be legitimate and incorrect.  I don't know, but I believe there are such studies.
yes they might be I was just offering possible reasons for these studies which have not been peer reviewed

they might be logit and they might not

my view on this is that it has been previously stated over and over by experts that this virus was man made
and now we have these studies (not peer reviewed) reported by CNN that they came from an animal
Im just skeptical thats all
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 27, 2022, 12:32:31 PM
The studies were widely reported by more than CNN, the CNN part is a canard.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 27, 2022, 12:36:12 PM
Covid-19 originated in Wuhan market, says new research (irishtimes.com) (https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/asia-pacific/covid-19-originated-in-wuhan-market-says-new-research-1.4813290)

This is a case where we don't yet have the actual studies, but folks dismiss it out of hand because they WANT to believe China did it.  And maybe they did, I don't know.  But this was reported on CNN so it's obvious nonsense, which of course is nonsense.

But if you are determined to believe it started at the Wuhan research site, no amount of study and information is likely to deter you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 27, 2022, 12:40:35 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 27, 2022, 12:36:12 PM
Covid-19 originated in Wuhan market, says new research (irishtimes.com) (https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/asia-pacific/covid-19-originated-in-wuhan-market-says-new-research-1.4813290)

This is a case where we don't yet have the actual studies, but folks dismiss it out of hand because they WANT to believe China did it.  And maybe they did, I don't know.  But this was reported on CNN so it's obvious nonsense, which of course is nonsense.

But if you are determined to believe it started at the Wuhan research site, no amount of study and information is likely to deter you.
Im determined to side with a multitude of previous published studies which said that there is little doubt the virus was not manmade

these studies are being published late in the game  and until they are peer reviewed Im skeptical 



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 28, 2022, 10:18:43 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 27, 2022, 12:32:31 PM
The studies were widely reported by more than CNN, the CNN part is a canard.
I'm a big fan of confit de canard.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 28, 2022, 10:20:17 AM
I'm a big fan of truth, and I fear we will never know in this case.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 28, 2022, 10:22:06 AM
Quote from: utee94 on February 28, 2022, 10:18:43 AM
I'm a big fan of confit de canard.
So are you saying the virus originated in ducks? 😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 28, 2022, 10:30:57 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on February 28, 2022, 10:22:06 AM
So are you saying the virus originated in ducks? 😂
Half-bat half-duck hybrids.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Riffraft on February 28, 2022, 10:36:07 AM
Quote from: utee94 on February 28, 2022, 10:30:57 AM
Half-bat half-duck hybrids.
It was the bat Boy


(https://wp-media.patheos.com/blogs/sites/52/2015/01/BatBoy.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 28, 2022, 10:58:18 AM
better than radar???

damn
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 28, 2022, 11:01:24 AM
I've been to  Ottumwa, Iowa

(https://64.media.tumblr.com/14eff6b8a517cd70457d68e4ddbef338/tumblr_inline_phtohkqV2a1ru9j6v_640.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 28, 2022, 12:20:24 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on February 27, 2022, 12:40:35 PM
Im determined to side with a multitude of previous published studies which said that there is little doubt the virus was not manmade

these studies are being published late in the game  and until they are peer reviewed Im skeptical
These two reports would be entirely consistent with the part about the virus not being manmade.  My "notion" is also consistent with it being naturally zoonotic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 28, 2022, 08:20:49 PM
Mar 14 my kids can finally stop wearing masks at school.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 01, 2022, 06:24:14 AM
Looks like they all got the same memo, B.R.A.D.

(https://i.imgur.com/CadHOIk.png)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 01, 2022, 08:29:14 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 28, 2022, 08:20:49 PM
Mar 14 my kids can finally stop wearing masks at school.
Corngrats!

My kids have been "free" since last Fall, but my daughter still chooses to wear one.  My son was also wearing one daily until he got COVID even WITH the masks and after that he said eff it.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 01, 2022, 10:22:46 AM
Good boy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 01, 2022, 10:23:41 AM
He's a smart kid.  Takes after his daddy. ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 01, 2022, 10:40:06 AM
Quote from: utee94 on March 01, 2022, 10:23:41 AM
He's a smart kid.  Takes after his daddy. ;)

Heh. Daughter takes after Aggie?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 01, 2022, 10:41:34 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 01, 2022, 10:40:06 AM
Heh. Daughter takes after Aggie?

I didn't say it... :)

Kidding of course.  My i s c & a aggie wife is pretty darn smart...

...for an aggie. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 01, 2022, 10:43:33 AM
Heh.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 01, 2022, 10:44:47 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/lhlzegA.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 01, 2022, 11:19:30 AM
Wuhan market was epicentre of pandemic’s start, studies suggest (nature.com) (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00584-8?fbclid=IwAR0i8y74W71OPG_1pjbYp8yRoeMrjvn4yCelsLY9ltoGDsimBxkLyd_HTHA)

Scientists have released three studies that reveal intriguing new clues about how the COVID-19 pandemic started. Two of the reports trace the outbreak back to a massive market that sold live animals, among other goods, in Wuhan, China1 (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00584-8?fbclid=IwAR0i8y74W71OPG_1pjbYp8yRoeMrjvn4yCelsLY9ltoGDsimBxkLyd_HTHA#ref-CR1),2 (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00584-8?fbclid=IwAR0i8y74W71OPG_1pjbYp8yRoeMrjvn4yCelsLY9ltoGDsimBxkLyd_HTHA#ref-CR2), and a third suggests that the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 spilled over from animals — possibly those sold at the market — to humans at least twice in November or December 20193 (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00584-8?fbclid=IwAR0i8y74W71OPG_1pjbYp8yRoeMrjvn4yCelsLY9ltoGDsimBxkLyd_HTHA#ref-CR3). Posted on 25 and 26 February, all three are preprints, and so have not been published in a peer-reviewed journal.

These analyses add weight to original suspicions that the pandemic began at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, which many of the people who were infected earliest with SARS-CoV-2 had visited. The preprints contain genetic analyses of coronavirus samples collected from the market and from people infected in December 2019 and January 2020, as well as geolocation analyses connecting many of the samples to a section of the market where live animals were sold. Taken together, these lines of evidence point towards the market as the source of the outbreak — a situation akin to that seen in the epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2002–04, for which animal markets were found to be ground zero — says Kristian Andersen, a virologist at the Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, California, and an author on two of the reports. “This is extremely strong evidence,” he says.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 01, 2022, 11:37:17 AM
and yet no one is able to identify the animal they suggest started covid

not only that there have been no repeat instances in China that we know of

again all this is pure speculation and not peer reviewed so Im waiting for that

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on March 01, 2022, 12:12:31 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 01, 2022, 11:19:30 AM
Wuhan market was epicentre of pandemic’s start, studies suggest (nature.com) (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00584-8?fbclid=IwAR0i8y74W71OPG_1pjbYp8yRoeMrjvn4yCelsLY9ltoGDsimBxkLyd_HTHA)

Scientists have released three studies that reveal intriguing new clues about how the COVID-19 pandemic started. Two of the reports trace the outbreak back to a massive market that sold live animals, among other goods, in Wuhan, China1 (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00584-8?fbclid=IwAR0i8y74W71OPG_1pjbYp8yRoeMrjvn4yCelsLY9ltoGDsimBxkLyd_HTHA#ref-CR1),2 (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00584-8?fbclid=IwAR0i8y74W71OPG_1pjbYp8yRoeMrjvn4yCelsLY9ltoGDsimBxkLyd_HTHA#ref-CR2), and a third suggests that the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 spilled over from animals — possibly those sold at the market — to humans at least twice in November or December 20193 (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00584-8?fbclid=IwAR0i8y74W71OPG_1pjbYp8yRoeMrjvn4yCelsLY9ltoGDsimBxkLyd_HTHA#ref-CR3). Posted on 25 and 26 February, all three are preprints, and so have not been published in a peer-reviewed journal.
no need to even read a single other word after this.

We'll never know what was really going on in that lab and if there was an accidental leak, because the CCP went into document shred mode, deleted entire databases, and nothing to see here folks, move along mode. 

A biologist named Jesse Bloom was able to miraculously recover 13 genetic sequences from some of the earliest patients infected with COVID in China- off Google Cloud. They were deleted everywhere, but someone in China forgot to delete them from google cloud and this clever fellow did sleuthing and backtracing and guessed the google cloud url links. This is just a tiny sliver of data recovered - 99% of it probably gone forever- because, well...China is asshole and went into cover-up mode. We'll probably never know.

"Thirteen genetic sequences — isolated from people with COVID-19 infections in the early days of the pandemic in China — were mysteriously deleted from an online database last year but have now been recovered.

Jesse Bloom, a computational biologist and specialist in viral evolution at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, found that the sequences had been removed from an online database at the request of scientists in Wuhan, China. But with some internet sleuthing, he was able to recover copies of the data stored on Google Cloud.

The sequences don’t fundamentally change scientists’ understanding of the origins of COVID-19 — including the fraught question of whether the coronavirus spread naturally from animals to people or escaped in a laboratory accident. But their deletion adds to concerns that secrecy from the Chinese government has obstructed international efforts to understand how COVID-19 emerged.


Bloom realized that the copies of SRA data are also maintained on servers run by Google, and was able to puzzle out the URLs where the missing sequences could be found in the cloud. In this way, he recovered 13 genetic sequences that may help answer questions about how the coronavirus evolved and where it came from.

Bloom found that the deleted sequences, like others collected at later dates outside the city, were more similar to bat coronaviruses — presumed to be the ultimate ancestors of the virus that causes COVID-19 — than sequences linked to the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan. This adds to earlier suggestions that the seafood market may have been an early victim of COVID-19, rather than the place where the coronavirus first jumped over from animals into people."


That leaked DARPA rejection of EcoHealth Alliance's grant to build SARS-COV2 by inserting furin cleavage sites in 2018- which DARPA deemed as too risky- is basically a smoking gun to me. EcoHealth Alliance was already partnering/funding research in said Wuhan lab. They had been doing so for years. Said lab in Wuhan would've had the blueprints available to them which EcoHealth proposed to DARPA which DARPA rightfully shot down. Would be a coincidence of MONUMENTAL massive proportions the exact same virus EcoHealth was proposing to create with DARPA funding breaks out naturally just a year later. I do not believe in such incredible coincidences.

Among the scientific tasks the group described in its proposal, which was rejected by DARPA, was the creation of full-length infectious clones of bat SARS-related coronaviruses and the insertion of a tiny part of the virus known as a “proteolytic cleavage site” into bat coronaviruses. Of particular interest was a type of cleavage site able to interact with furin, an enzyme expressed in human cells.

GEE...what a coincidence....you know....the EXACT way this virus infects human cells.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 01, 2022, 01:17:03 PM
I think it fine to read preprints before peer review.  Peer review is not some panacea to bad research of course.  This work is at least interesting, to me anyway, if short of compelling "proof", it's another link in a chain perhaps.  And it's possible the studies are flawed, but peer review often cannot pick up on that.

First, it was dismissed because it was cited by CNN, and now because it isn't peer reviewed.  Neither carries any water for me personally.  I have done peer review, I have some understanding of how flawed it can be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on March 01, 2022, 01:22:28 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 01, 2022, 01:17:03 PM
I think it fine to read preprints before peer review.  Peer review is not some panacea to bad research of course.  This work is at least interesting, to me anyway, if short of compelling "proof", it's another link in a chain perhaps.  And it's possible the studies are flawed, but peer review often cannot pick up on that.

First, it was dismissed because it was cited by CNN, and now because it isn't peer reviewed.  Neither carries any water for me personally.  I have done peer review, I have some understanding of how flawed it can be.
yeah, I'll take your word on the peer review stuff, not going to argue with an expert. And I never mentioned anything about CNN by the way.

The Intercept has done some wonderful reporting on this. The reports they did on the leaked EcoHealth grant that DARPA rejected is a virtual smoking gun in my mind. The odds that literally the exact same thing breaks out naturally roughly a year later are astronomically low. It'd have to be one of the greatest coincidences in history. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 01, 2022, 01:24:23 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 01, 2022, 01:17:03 PM
I think it fine to read preprints before peer review.  Peer review is not some panacea to bad research of course.  This work is at least interesting, to me anyway, if short of compelling "proof", it's another link in a chain perhaps.  And it's possible the studies are flawed, but peer review often cannot pick up on that.

First, it was dismissed because it was cited by CNN, and now because it isn't peer reviewed.  Neither carries any water for me personally.  I have done peer review, I have some understanding of how flawed it can be.
so peer reviews hold no water for you 

enough said you said it all
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 01, 2022, 01:25:45 PM
I cast doubt on anything cited by CNN, same as I would cast doubt on anything cited by Fox.  Just two cheerleaders for different teams.

That doesn't mean that whatever they're pimping is illegitimate of course.  Obviously their agendas are even better served if there is (at least partial) truth to what they choose to report.

As always I reserve the right to read it and make up my own mind.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 01, 2022, 01:31:58 PM
A peer review is by far no guarantee of validity.  It's a step, it's the best we have, but plenty of peer reviewed articles were later taken down (it's a small percentage of course).  And a peer review often results in pretty minor changes to the offering.

Talk to any STEM professor, he gets barraged with peer review requests.  There is no way he can spend much time on them.  He has to do them, but it's often cursory, or he gives them to senior grad students or post docs to do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 01, 2022, 01:45:09 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 01, 2022, 01:31:58 PM
A peer review is by far no guarantee of validity.  It's a step, it's the best we have, but plenty of peer reviewed articles were later taken down (it's a small percentage of course).  And a peer review often results in pretty minor changes to the offering.

Talk to any STEM professor, he gets barraged with peer review requests.  There is no way he can spend much time on them.  He has to do them, but it's often cursory, or he gives them to senior grad students or post docs to do.
While peer reviews are no guarantee of validity it at least gives an informed opinion and will point out obvious flaws

to say theres no added value generated when peer reviewed is really silly
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on March 01, 2022, 01:49:59 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 01, 2022, 01:25:45 PM
I cast doubt on anything cited by CNN, same as I would cast doubt on anything cited by Fox.  Just two cheerleaders for different teams.

That doesn't mean that whatever they're pimping is illegitimate of course.  Obviously their agendas are even better served if there is (at least partial) truth to what they choose to report.

As always I reserve the right to read it and make up my own mind.
this all day. 

CNN does some great reporting, sometimes. I think Jake Tapper has done some really good stuff. Sometimes. Fox has done some great reporting sometimes as well. 

I think it's probably great to consume as much of everything as possible, try to look at everything from as many sides as you can, and then filter out the bs and think for yourself and make up your own mind. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 01, 2022, 01:53:08 PM
When CNN cites some publication, the publication is real, preprint or not.  They often choose to cite it because it fits their messaging, just as Fox News will ignore it, fine.

But the preprints are real.  And I personally have zero problems reading a preprint or considering the information therein.  After peer review and publication, I HOPE it's more authentic, but I understand it may well still be flawed research.  Peer review means someone reads the paper and makes comments, they CANNOT investigate what actually was done, the thing COULD be entirely dry labbed, a peer reviewer would have a tough time spotting that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 01, 2022, 01:53:20 PM
The problem with any cable news show now is that they are all editorials. You have to sift through that crap and understand what the FACTS are, rather than some dickwad's opinion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 01, 2022, 02:17:21 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 01, 2022, 01:53:20 PM
The problem with any cable news show now is that they are all editorials. You have to sift through that crap and understand what the FACTS are, rather than some dickwad's opinion.
Yup.  And if something is being cited as supporting evidence for an editorial piece-- which is basically everything on cable news-- then I'm automatically suspicious of it.  

Decades of editorial abuse by the free press has resulted in this reaction.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 01, 2022, 02:25:29 PM
If CNN reports say stock prices, I believe them.  If they report some preprints, I believe they exist.  Much of what they report is simply factual information.

Far too much is not, IMHO, but it's easy to spot.  They've taken to labeling OPINION as "ANALYSIS", which is really opinion.

But I personally won't discount a factual report from CNN just because it's CNN, or anyone else, any more than I will denigrate preprints because they have yet to be peer reviewed.  It's information, it may be flawed, but it's information.

What too many do is disdain information they don't agree with, and latch on to sketchiness that they do believe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 01, 2022, 02:51:02 PM
It's the way the world works these days...

Studies that I disagree with aren't valid if they're reported by someone I don't like, or are still in preprint mode and haven't cleared peer review. If they clear peer review, they're probably biased and funded by shady sources. So I don't have to pay attention.

Youtubers, podcasters, and conspiracy theorists who make points I agree with are trustworthy, because they're outside the corrupted establishment that is designed to deceive us. Their independence is the only way they can speak truth to power. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 01, 2022, 03:03:05 PM
CD youre making too much of this CNN thing

I for one have never criticized the validity of these 3 studies because of CNN

Im simply saying that to believe covid19 came from animals and not man created

is a big change of view from what leading scientists have been suggesting

now these studies may be dead on accurate and Rocky the squirrel may be the culprit

here but because Im really at a loss to understand how these studies were carried out Id like the experts to render an opinion before I jump on that band wagon



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 01, 2022, 03:09:13 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 01, 2022, 02:51:02 PM
It's the way the world works these days...

Studies that I disagree with aren't valid if they're reported by someone I don't like, or are still in preprint mode and haven't cleared peer review. If they clear peer review, they're probably biased and funded by shady sources. So I don't have to pay attention.

Youtubers, podcasters, and conspiracy theorists who make points I agree with are trustworthy, because they're outside the corrupted establishment that is designed to deceive us. Their independence is the only way they can speak truth to power.


Nah, I don't believe them, either. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on March 01, 2022, 03:10:32 PM
should be required reading in high schools...might wind up with a citizenry actually capable of developing critical thinking skills.

https://www.amazon.com/Manufacturing-Consent-Political-Economy-Media/dp/0375714499

90+% of all US mass media (which includes news) is owned/controlled by like 5 or 6 mega-corporations. It's something nuts like that. That is truly astonishing. And kind of terrifying.

US propaganda system is one of the most effective in the entire world, and it's designed to make the US the good guys, always- no matter what- the benevolent, peaceful empire- and to ingrain into the mind of the populace that are being propagandized the authority of institutions. When in reality, the US is virtually no different than any Imperial power that has come before it and said institutions are just made up of ordinary, regular ass people- who are capable of lying, cheating, stealing and can be corrupted by power like any other ordinary, regular ass person.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 01, 2022, 03:13:35 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 01, 2022, 03:03:05 PM
CD youre making too much of this CNN thing

I for one have never criticized the validity of these 3 studies because of CNN

Im simply saying that to believe covid19 came from animals and not man created

is a big change of view from what leading scientists have been suggesting

now these studies may be dead on accurate and Rocky the squirrel may be the culprit

here but because Im really at a loss to understand how these studies were carried out Id like the experts to render an opinion before I jump on that band wagon
I won't jump on this bandwagon even if the studies survive peer review and are published in Nature.

And I believe most virologists believe COVID is zoonotic and natural, at least most that I have read about and heard from.  Badger posted that he wouldn't believe it because it was cited by CNN.  Others said they stopped reading when it said not peer reviewed.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on March 01, 2022, 03:27:54 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 01, 2022, 03:13:35 PM
I won't jump on this bandwagon even if the studies survive peer review and are published in Nature.

And I believe most virologists believe COVID is zoonotic and natural, at least most that I have read about and heard from.  Badger posted that he wouldn't believe it because it was cited by CNN.  Others said they stopped reading when it said not peer reviewed.
Yeah and a lot of them don't. There is no consensus on this. To pretend there is, is well, not true.

Including the last head of the CDC to be a trained virologist (the current CDC heads background is in internal medicine) - Robert R. Redfield - who has seen intelligence and information- that none of the other virologists that you have read or heard have seen- and is of the opinion that this virus leaked from a lab. Speaking of CNN - that was a great piece of reporting done by - well not a reporter- but a medical doctor - Dr. Sanjay Gupta. Gupta has even said there is probably something to this - and that Redfield without a doubt has seen things that the public has not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 01, 2022, 03:36:37 PM
I didn't say there was a consensus, only that most virologists I've read believe it is naturally occurring.  I am aware that some have disagreed.  I don't think they vote on such things.  I personally don't know either way.

Why many scientists say it’s unlikely that SARS-CoV-2 originated from a ‘lab leak’ | Science | AAAS (https://www.science.org/content/article/why-many-scientists-say-unlikely-sars-cov-2-originated-lab-leak)

Obviously, the virology is well beyond my understanding and knowledge, so I'm left depending on "expert opinion".  I still like my notion a bit and have never seen that option discussed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 01, 2022, 03:37:40 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on March 01, 2022, 03:27:54 PM
There is no consensus on this. To pretend there is, is well, not true.

Agreed. This was largely posted without I think assuming the answer was lab or zoonotic, but 320 suggested that this is going against a consensus position that it was lab. 

I honestly don't know which, and I don't think there is a consensus position. So posting the new studies suggesting a natural source is relevant and newsworthy. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 01, 2022, 03:43:46 PM
It seems a bit fishy to me to attribute covid19 coming from some animal from a Chinese meat market that just happens to be fairly close to a lab that was being funded to work on viruses

I normally dont believe in coincidences and this is no exception

again they have bever positively identified the animal or even a type of animal and no other instances have been documented
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 01, 2022, 03:44:59 PM
7-day MA for cases now below the lowest point of the Delta wave:

(https://i.imgur.com/cXHN8A7.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 01, 2022, 03:46:09 PM
I have not seen reports of another "variant of concern" (yet).  we seem to be due about every three months or so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 01, 2022, 03:54:06 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 01, 2022, 03:44:59 PM
7-day MA for cases now below the lowest point of the Delta wave:

(https://i.imgur.com/cXHN8A7.png)
the new deaths is falling but at a rate that just doesnt seem right tp me

as talked about earlier I am very interested in seeing deaths from all causes compared to a norm

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 01, 2022, 03:55:42 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 01, 2022, 03:46:09 PM
I have not seen reports of another "variant of concern" (yet).  we seem to be due about every three months or so.
There's been a spattering of news about BA.2, but so far nothing that I've seen that it's going to bubble up and be notable. 

As I said a few weeks ago, I don't think there will be another significant wave. What made Omicron so able to evade vaccine and natural immunity was a massive R0 (potentially as high as 10), making it one of the most transmissible viruses that we know of. 

The immunity provided by vaccines (incl boosters) and natural infection should do very well to protect against variants with lower R0. While it's possible that the virus could further mutate to an even higher R0, I think it's likely that being so successful at burning through the population has given it far fewer hosts going forward to do so. And mutation to lower R0 will just cause it to die out faster. 

Now, I could be wrong. I'm not an epidemiologist; I only play one on the internet. But I think Omicron is the end of this. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 01, 2022, 03:59:32 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/VI0s6UO.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 01, 2022, 04:01:51 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 01, 2022, 03:54:06 PM
the new deaths is falling but at a rate that just doesnt seem right tp me

as talked about earlier I am very interested in seeing deaths from all causes compared to a norm


Ask and ye shall receive...

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

(https://i.imgur.com/Z78MVRE.png)

Note that the data for the last few weeks will change, as it relies on official coroner's reports to bubble up through the associated reporting systems. 

Green line is considered "average" number of expected deaths. Red line is the threshold at which it is determined that we're in "excess" territory. You can see the beginning of 2018 showing excess, because the 2017-2018 flu season was really bad. 

I see nothing here to suggest that the numbers of deaths reported as COVID deaths were people were dying "with" COVID rather than "from" COVID. The curves basically look identical to the Worldometers curve laid atop the normal death numbers, for each and every wave of the virus. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 01, 2022, 04:03:15 PM
Im talking about deaths in the US from the beginning of omicron to the present

that data probably wont be available for at least another 1 to 2 months
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 01, 2022, 04:06:29 PM
it would be nice to actually be able to see the numbers and not a graph

the obvious thing is comparing total omicron deaths to total excess deaths

but I can really do that looking at the graph
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 01, 2022, 04:06:44 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 01, 2022, 04:03:15 PM
Im talking about deaths in the US from the beginning of omicron to the present

that data probably wont be available for at least another 1 to 2 months
No, it's right there. As I've mentioned, the issue with the data is that anything within the last 4 weeks is probably incomplete, so you really can only base it on what's good through the end of January. 

But Omicron hit the US in force in mid-Dec, and death rates inflected right around the new year, so you have at least one good month of data (January) in there. 

The February data will firm up over the course of March. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 01, 2022, 04:08:08 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 01, 2022, 04:06:29 PM
it would be nice to actually be able to see the numbers and not a graph

the obvious thing is comparing total omicron deaths to total excess deaths

but I can really do that looking at the graph
You know, you could click the link... And download the raw data in CSV and import to Excel, and see it any way you'd like. 

You can even do it sorted by cause of death. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on March 01, 2022, 04:13:40 PM
The ODNI released a report in which I believe said one US intelligence agency believed it was leaked from a lab. Other intelligence agencies disagreed with that assessment however- they weren't confident in any of their conclusions and there was no consensus- there are 16 or 17 agencies after all - in all it was mostly a useless report that confirmed nothing. Robert Redfield - a trained virologist and the former head of the CDC - who has seen information that most people alive have not- also believes it came from a lab.

To me a near smoking gun - which everyone seems to be ignoring - is the rejected DARPA grant proposal from EcoHealth Alliance in 2018- (who was funding and partnering with the Wuhan lab on bat coronavirus research projects) - it f**king literally was a blueprint for creating SARS-COV2 like virus in a lab. And just a year later- an almost exact virus that infects human tissue the exact same way as would the one proposed in the rejected DARPA lab - leaks out and destroys the entire world from a city that happens to have a bat coronavirus lab that EcoHealth was partnering with. The odds of this - have to be astronomically low. It's a fantastical coincidence - and I for one do not believe in coincidences.

The fact that China went into full cover-up mode and deleted an entire public database of bat coronaviruses and the research that was done in that lab- then claimed the database was deleted for "hacking concerns" - really - it's a public database - who would need to hack a public database + those leaked Fauci/NIH/EcoHealth emails which clearly showed major concern and them going into crisis mode/damage control mode and trying to push a narrative they knew wasn't true + the fact that Fauci has more than once lied under oath by playing weasel words in regards to NIH funding gain of function research (not to mention- HE is the one who turned gain of function funding back on in 2017, after the Obama administration shut it down in 2014) + that leaked rejected DARPA grant - lot of shit just does not add up or hold water.

Probably the best reporting on any of this stuff that I saw was from The Intercept and....Joe Rogan. His interviews with Dr. Sanjay Gupta, investigative reporter at the Washington Post Josh Rogin, and evolutionary biologist Bret Weinstein were all amazing. Should be forced watching for everyone.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqhKlkkc2Eo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaT0WOwEag4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQLF4DUSXGs
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 01, 2022, 04:23:25 PM
I looked at 2 weeks WE 1/15 and WE1/22

Total excess deaths for both weeks was between 20 and 22 thousand

covid deaths for each of those weeks was only between 14 and 18 thousand

so that looks like actual covid deaths was higher then previous reports which really doesnt support my point so I guess I'll look at it again when Feb and March data is in

plus we are taking their word for normal expected deaths and Id like to see if there are other sources later
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 01, 2022, 04:28:39 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 01, 2022, 04:23:25 PM
I looked at 2 weeks WE 1/15 and WE1/22

Total excess deaths for both weeks was between 20 and 22 thousand

covid deaths for each of those weeks was only between 14 and 18 thousand

so that looks like actual covid deaths was higher then previous reports which really doesnt support my point so I guess I'll look at it again when Feb and March data is in

plus we are taking their word for normal expected deaths and Id like to see if there are other sources later
Nah when data doesn't support your point then you just need to search for a different data source.  What kind of internet poster are you????
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 01, 2022, 04:37:33 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 01, 2022, 04:28:39 PM
Nah when data doesn't support your point then you just need to search for a different data source.  What kind of internet poster are you????
believe me I would if it existed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 01, 2022, 05:12:47 PM
Well, the CDC, who has been tracking mortality for, well, probably as long as the CDC has existed, might have been gaming the data for the last several decades so that it would make COVID look worse. 

You don't know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on March 02, 2022, 12:57:13 AM
Whatever the current risks, dad is treating with chemotherapy. I am 1,500 miles away. I am wearing masks. I want to see dad. I don't want him to die from a germ I get, and I have been really good at getting COVID-19, while being really good at recovering from it.
I don't care how stupid some of you may think I look. I wear masks. I love my dad. I will double mask on the plane.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 02, 2022, 09:00:55 AM
HONG KONG (AP) — Hong Kong’s leader on Wednesday said people’s movements may be restricted during mandatory testing this month of the entire population for the coronavirus, as health officials reported a record 55,353 daily infections and over a hundred deaths.

Chief executive Carrie Lam said authorities are still refining the plan, but that there would be no “complete” lockdown that would prevent entry and exit from the city.

“The extent of it must take into account Hong Kong’s circumstances and people’s needs,” she told reporters.

Hong Kong is planning to test its more than 7 million residents as it grapples with soaring numbers of COVID-19 cases in its worst outbreak of the pandemic, linked largely to the omicron variant.

Officials on Wednesday reported 117 deaths, taking the total number above 1,000. About 80% of the deaths have occurred since late December. Most involved elderly patients who were not fully vaccinated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 02, 2022, 09:02:15 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 01, 2022, 11:37:17 AM
and yet no one is able to identify the animal they suggest started covid


well, that animal was eaten
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 02, 2022, 09:02:29 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on March 02, 2022, 12:57:13 AM
Whatever the current risks, dad is treating with chemotherapy. I am 1,500 miles away. I am wearing masks. I want to see dad. I don't want him to die from a germ I get, and I have been really good at getting COVID-19, while being really good at recovering from it.
I don't care how stupid some of you may think I look. I wear masks. I love my dad. I will double mask on the plane.

You should of course do what you want to do.  I don't think people choosing to wear masks "look stupid."  I don't think anything about it at all.  It would have looked strange to me 2 years ago, now it's commonplace.

Best wishes to your dad on his fight and recovery.  My FIL is going through chemo right now as well.  It's tough.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 02, 2022, 09:11:56 AM
Wearing a mask alone in a car looks stupid, but I imagine often it's like folks leaving their blinkers on.  Wearing a mask outdoors in an open park area looks stupid, but it does keep your face warm.  We've all seen Asians before COVID at airports wearing masks.  It looked rather odd at the time.

I still think a mask has a small benefit for public health, but in crowded areas indoors.  Some do view it as government trying to control us, by forcing us to do things.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 02, 2022, 10:03:32 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 02, 2022, 09:02:15 AM
well, that animal was eaten
how convenient
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 03, 2022, 11:30:16 AM
Democrats look for offramp from masking in public | TheHill (https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/596652-democrats-look-for-offramp-from-masking-in-public)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 03, 2022, 11:31:58 AM
Man, remember when THIS thread was our political hot-button topic?  

I do so miss February 2022...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 03, 2022, 02:31:09 PM
Covid: Pfizer, Moderna project $51 billion in combined vaccine sales this year (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/03/covid-pfizer-moderna-project-51-billion-in-combined-vaccine-sales-this-year.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 03, 2022, 02:48:54 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 03, 2022, 02:31:09 PM
Covid: Pfizer, Moderna project $51 billion in combined vaccine sales this year (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/03/covid-pfizer-moderna-project-51-billion-in-combined-vaccine-sales-this-year.html)
I'll do my best to help them not get there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 03, 2022, 02:50:26 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 03, 2022, 02:48:54 PM
I'll do my best to help them not get there.
I've done my part.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on March 03, 2022, 02:56:01 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 03, 2022, 02:31:09 PM
Covid: Pfizer, Moderna project $51 billion in combined vaccine sales this year (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/03/covid-pfizer-moderna-project-51-billion-in-combined-vaccine-sales-this-year.html)
that is a whole lot of money. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 03, 2022, 03:13:02 PM
It's enormous for Moderna, it's sizeable for Pfizer, in terms of sales.  Pfizer is the tenth largest drug company by revenue, third by market cap, and 21st among US companies of all types by market cap.  As compared to the US government ....

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on March 04, 2022, 01:05:11 AM
Our rural county, according to our regional newspaper the Dubuque Telegraph Herald, is reporting infection rate this week at slightly over 1/1,000. Conditions are much better now, until they get worse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 04, 2022, 07:16:43 AM
I don't think it's going to get worse. I think we are past that, and that this will be akin to a seasonal thing, like the flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 04, 2022, 08:10:43 AM
It doesn't show much evidence for seasonality that I can see.  Waves seem to come about every three months, last two months, and then abate.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 04, 2022, 08:17:31 AM
That might not be true once it is no longer seen by our bodies as novel and settles into its long-term endemic phase.  I suspect it'll behave more like all of the other coronaviruses our bodies fight off annually.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 04, 2022, 08:20:13 AM
Could be since it is respiratory, akin to the others.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 04, 2022, 08:23:02 AM
Could the end of the "common cold" be a thing here?

Covid has essentially turned into that for most people. Is Covid the new "common cold" moving forward?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 04, 2022, 08:26:11 AM
It still has fatalities associated with it, I don't think CC does except perhaps with the very feeble.  It could be more akin to influenza in impact, something that can be very annoying and causes fatalities, but is not a threat for most of us.  I was surprised to learn that the flu can exhibit no or very mild symptoms in many cases.  And be deadly for some.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 04, 2022, 08:27:16 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 04, 2022, 08:23:02 AM
Could the end of the "common cold" be a thing here?

Covid has essentially turned into that for most people. Is Covid the new "common cold" moving forward?
Yeah sure, could be.  The common cold is caused by a number of different viruses, some of them coronaviruses and some of them not.  That's one reason the symptoms vary from case to case, it's not always being caused by the same virus in one person or another.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 04, 2022, 09:07:04 AM
I've not had a "cold" since December 2019. I know it's anecdotal, but I'm a guy that would get hammered by a "cold" 4 times a year (every season) and they would last a long time.

Now, nothing.

There has to be something to that, beyond not living in the frozen hell of Chicago anymore.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 04, 2022, 09:11:43 AM
Could be?  But I can't recall ever having a cold, or the flu.  Could be related to your change in location.

When I was a kid I got strep throat a couple of times.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 04, 2022, 09:14:32 AM
I had a pretty bad "cold/bronchitis" in France January 2020.  It was unpleasant though I wasn't bad sick, just a lot of mucus/coughing.  Plane flights have often gotten me sick.

I haven't felt sick since.  No kids in school is one factor.  Not being indoors all the time is another.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 04, 2022, 09:16:28 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 04, 2022, 09:14:32 AM
I had a pretty bad "cold/bronchitis" in France January 2020.  It was unpleasant though I wasn't bad sick, just a lot of mucus/coughing.  Plane flights have often gotten me sick.

I haven't felt sick since.  No kids in school is one factor.  Not being indoors all the time is another.
You had Covid. ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 04, 2022, 09:24:56 AM
The symptoms were not what I read COVID is like at all.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 04, 2022, 09:29:40 AM
Early COVID was supposed to be characterized by having a dry, hacking cough as one of its primary symptoms.  Non-productive. 

The most recent symptoms described by Omicron-infected folks tend to lead with a sore throat.  My 12yo son had a mild sore throat for about a half-day, which is why we got him tested.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 04, 2022, 09:43:14 AM
I had a ton of mucus and cough with phlegm, felt like a bad cold/bronchitis.

As contagious as it was (and is), I think it would spread very rapidly if I had it in January and been "out", clearly, everywhere.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 06, 2022, 10:51:10 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/KvDvjo3.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/B5C2Zpk.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 06, 2022, 11:04:11 AM
encouraging numbers
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 06, 2022, 11:05:19 AM
At the risk of being redundant there should be no mandates for the virus anywhere 

Its over
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 06, 2022, 12:47:33 PM
Just read an article on the 1,000 mile Iditarod Sled Dog Race in Alaska dubbed the "The last great race on earth" that kicked off yesterday.Seems all entered mushers had to be vaxed,really?Nothing around but wilderness and maybe some Moose but those weisenheimers aren't taking any chances.The musher who won the Race 2 yrs ago wasn't allowed back in the country from Norway. Not sure how many people who walked across the southern border will be attending. This is just beyond stupid,bent and sick. The Associated Press in today's paper has a big pic of the SOU Address and neither Sleepy Joe or the 2 slappies behind him Kamela & Pelosi are masked.SMDH - we're doomed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 06, 2022, 02:25:26 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 06, 2022, 11:05:19 AM
At the risk of being redundant there should be no mandates for the virus anywhere

Its over
It could come back of course, but odds are decent the current vax would not work well on "it".  I was in the hospital last week (took neighbor for colon scan) and everyone is masked, and I'm OK with that.  On airlines it should be optional IMHO.  The cruise is still requiring vax, I personally am OK with that.  They are giving me 20% back.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 10:24:09 AM
From the NYT:


Daily life in red and blue America has continued to be quite different over the past few months. It’s a reflection of the partisan divide over Covid-19. Consider:

  • In the country’s most liberal cities, many people are still avoiding restaurants. The number of seated diners last month was at least 40 percent below prepandemic levels in New York, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, San Francisco, Portland, Ore., and Cambridge, Mass., according to OpenTable (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/J-hHKJH2yp8cNSJJfC7TUg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRkCxV0P0TAaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cub3BlbnRhYmxlLmNvbS9zdGF0ZS1vZi1pbmR1c3RyeT9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjIwMzA5Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTU1MjI2Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9MTUzMzY4OTEwJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9ODUwMTYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPThlNWQyYTJiNWU0OGE2OTY1NjE5MmNjM2FmMGE5MDBjVwNueXRCCmIndJAoYr6lNhFSEWpjZG9vbTlAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA). By contrast, the number of diners has fully recovered in Las Vegas, Miami, Nashville, Phoenix, Charlotte, N.C., and Austin, Texas, as well as in Oklahoma, Nebraska and New Hampshire.
  • Residents of liberal cities like New York, Washington and San Jose, Calif., are still spending significantly more time at home and less at the office than before the pandemic began, according to Opportunity Insights (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/OA1tO4otVhIT68x7q-HkAQ~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRkCxV0P0SyaHR0cHM6Ly90cmFja3RoZXJlY292ZXJ5Lm9yZy8_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIyMDMwOSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD01NTIyNiZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTE1MzM2ODkxMCZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTg1MDE2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0QgpiJ3SQKGK-pTYRUhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~), a Harvard-based research group. In more conservative places, the rhythms of daily life have returned nearly to normal.
  • During the Omicron wave, schools in heavily Democratic areas were more likely to close (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/uN7M0-RsxPch7WE0nxF6GQ~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRkCxV0P0TpaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8wMi8yOC9icmllZmluZy9jbGFzc3Jvb20tZGlzcnVwdGlvbnMtY292aWQtb21pY3Jvbi5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMjAzMDkmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NTUyMjYmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xNTMzNjg5MTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD04NTAxNiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9OGU1ZDJhMmI1ZTQ4YTY5NjU2MTkyY2MzYWYwYTkwMGNXA255dEIKYid0kChivqU2EVIRamNkb29tOUBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) some classrooms or require that students stay home for extended periods.
  • Mask wearing remains far more common (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/Z0mkWliw8JcG1woEpUwVAw~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRkCxV0P0TpaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC8wNy8xNy91cHNob3QvY29yb25hdmlydXMtZmFjZS1tYXNrLW1hcC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMjAzMDkmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NTUyMjYmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xNTMzNjg5MTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD04NTAxNiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9OGU1ZDJhMmI1ZTQ4YTY5NjU2MTkyY2MzYWYwYTkwMGNXA255dEIKYid0kChivqU2EVIRamNkb29tOUBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) in liberal communities than conservative ones.
These stark differences have created a kind of natural experiment: Did Omicron spread less in the parts of the U.S. where social distancing and masking were more common?
The answer is surprisingly unclear.
Nationwide, the number of official Covid cases has recently been somewhat higher in heavily Democratic areas than Republican areas, according to The Times’s data (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/-mrL4dgoLg-1Ee9cH6sm_w~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRkCxV0P0TRaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMS91cy9jb3ZpZC1jYXNlcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMjAzMDkmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NTUyMjYmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xNTMzNjg5MTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD04NTAxNiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9OGU1ZDJhMmI1ZTQ4YTY5NjU2MTkyY2MzYWYwYTkwMGNXA255dEIKYid0kChivqU2EVIRamNkb29tOUBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~). That comparison doesn’t fully answer the question, though, because Democratic areas were also conducting more tests, and the percentage of positive tests tended to be somewhat higher in Republican areas.
No single statistic offers a definitive answer. When I look at all the evidence, I emerge thinking that liberal areas probably had slightly lower Omicron infection rates than conservative areas. But it is difficult to be sure, as these state-level charts — by my colleague Ashley Wu — suggest:


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 12:51:27 PM
What it was like to live in Cincinnati during the 1918 flu pandemic | WVXU (https://www.wvxu.org/history/2022-03-09/living-cincinnati-during-1918-flu-pandemic?fbclid=IwAR3pkaWHCCge8quh-ME9gS7P8zTzJjY1MGIGrHKCxTYCb_1QbHWHKEF-rls)

Sound familiar?  Ms. Beitz is a friend of mine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 04:11:57 PM
Since May 2021, people living in counties that voted heavily for Donald Trump during the last presidential election have been nearly three times as likely to die from COVID-19 as those who live in areas that went for now-President Biden. That's according to a new analysis by NPR that examines how political polarization and misinformation are driving a significant share of the deaths in the pandemic.
NPR looked at deaths per 100,000 people in roughly 3,000 counties across the U.S. from May 2021, the point at which vaccinations widely became available. People living in counties that went 60% or higher for Trump in November 2020 had 2.73 times the death rates of those that went for Biden. Counties with an even higher share of the vote for Trump saw higher COVID-19 mortality rates.
In October, the reddest tenth of the country saw death rates that were six times higher than the bluest tenth, according to Charles Gaba, an independent health care analyst who's been tracking partisanship trends during the pandemic (https://acasignups.net/21/12/02/weekly-update-covid19-casedeath-rates-county-partisan-lean-vaccination-rate) and helped to review NPR's methodology. Those numbers have dropped slightly in recent weeks, Gaba says: "It's back down to around 5.5 times higher."



Pro-Trump counties now have far higher COVID death rates : Shots - Health News : NPR (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/12/05/1059828993/data-vaccine-misinformation-trump-counties-covid-death-rate)


"An unvaccinated person is three times as likely to lean Republican as they are to lean Democrat," says Liz Hamel, vice president of public opinion and survey research at the Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonpartisan health policy think tank that tracks attitudes toward vaccination. Political affiliation is now the strongest indicator of whether someone is vaccinated, she says: "If I wanted to guess if somebody was vaccinated or not and I could only know one thing about them, I would probably ask what their party affiliation is."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 04:16:42 PM
I find it fascinating how politicized the vaccine has become, per above.  The story line earlier was that Trump himself developed this vaccine, so it was terrific, he was so great.  Then Biden became President and the very same vaccines became poisons promulgated on us by a nefarious government.

It's as solid an example of confirmation bias as I recall seeing.  And of course K. Harris voiced suspicions of the vaccine before being in office, so it works both ways.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 09, 2022, 04:23:35 PM
CD Im just a country boy and dont understand the covid article you just posted

What is the message they are presenting

Vote for Trump and die from covid?

please explain the underlying message they are saying
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 09, 2022, 04:28:51 PM
its possible that by May of 2021 the dense blue areas mostly large cities had already had its run and incurred deaths much earlier

Id like to see the same study but go from Dec 2019 to May 2021 and see the results
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 04:33:44 PM
The indication is that Trump supporters are much more vaccine resistant than Biden supporters, as indicated by reported higher COVID death totals for Trump supporters.

Now there could be other factors, Trump supporters tend to be older, and we know age is a primary "cofactor" for COVID deaths.  But has been reported elsewhere that Trump supporters are much more vaccine resistant than Biden voters.  Trump even was booed at an event for saying he'd gotten his third shot.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 09, 2022, 04:44:29 PM
so the purpose of the study was to find out which side valued human rights more

hell they didnt have to do a study all they had to do was ask me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 04:46:54 PM
I'd opine the purpose of the study was to evaluate who was vaccine resistant, and why, and what other cofactors relate to that, and the impact of such resistance.

I don't think it relates to human rights that I can discern.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 09, 2022, 04:52:18 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 04:46:54 PM
I'd opine the purpose of the study was to evaluate who was vaccine resistant, and why, and what other cofactors relate to that, and the impact of such resistance.

I don't think it relates to human rights that I can discern.
I think the typical Trump supporter feels they have the freedom to not get the shots if thats their wish

This is a completely different view presented in liberal media

Yes I would believe Trump supporters were more resistant to getting the shots

so what at the end of the day what message does this create because thats the real purpose of the study
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 04:58:06 PM
Folks have the choice not to get the vaccine, generally speaking, Trump supporters make that choice more often than Biden voters.  Each group has the same exact set of "rights".  I find it fascinating, others may not.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 09, 2022, 04:58:53 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 04:33:44 PM
The indication is that Trump supporters are much more vaccine resistant than Biden supporters, as indicated by reported higher COVID death totals for Trump supporters.

Now there could be other factors, Trump supporters tend to be older, and we know age is a primary "cofactor" for COVID deaths.  But has been reported elsewhere that Trump supporters are much more vaccine resistant than Biden voters.  Trump even was booed at an event for saying he'd gotten his third shot.
I think vaccination is probably the primary factor.

One additional confounding variable, however, is that the reddest of the red areas are also most likely to be extraordinarily rural, and those areas tend to be more underserved when it comes to hospital / ICU / extreme medical assistance. 

https://www.ruralhealthinfo.org/topics/healthcare-access

For example: 


Quote
Distance and Transportation

Rural populations are more likely to have to travel long distances to access healthcare services, particularly subspecialist services. This can be a significant burden in terms of travel time, cost, and time away from the workplace. In addition, the lack of reliable transportation is a barrier to care. In urban areas, public transit is generally an option for patients to get to medical appointments; however, these transportation services are often lacking in rural areas. Rural communities often have more elderly residents who have chronic conditions requiring multiple visits to outpatient healthcare facilities. This becomes challenging without available public or private transportation. RHIhub's Transportation to Support Rural Healthcare (https://www.ruralhealthinfo.org/topics/transportation) topic guide provides resources and information about transportation and related issues for rural communities.

And to expand on their point about having "more elderly residents", there's this: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/10/older-population-in-rural-america.html


Quote
A new report, The Older Population in Rural America: 2012-2016 (https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2019/acs/acs-41.html), shows that 17.5% of the rural population was 65 years and older compared to 13.8% in urban areas.
It makes sense with the urbanification of the United States over time... People who grew up, lived, and worked in rural areas also got old there. Young people who were born in rural areas but later moved to urban areas for economic opportunity then skewed the demographics--by leaving the rural areas it skews rural areas as older, and by moving to cities it skews urban areas as younger. 

So there's a fair bit to unpack.

I'd say vaccine rates are likely to be the major differentiator. But nothing that I can see suggests that they tried to control for the age range of the counties studied, so it would adversely affect rural counties. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 09, 2022, 05:00:24 PM
I'd like to see the data - all of it - used in this study.

Just thinking out loud here.

Where do older people go to retire?

Ummm... red states. But, there are a lot of older retired D's in red states too.

Emphasis on older people. 


I'm considering this a hit piece until otherwise shown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 05:03:29 PM
I've seen other studies showing Trump supporters to be more vaccine resistant.  As I noted, they also are older in general, and that is a factor.

This is why Trump got booed by his own crowd.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on March 09, 2022, 05:07:05 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 05:03:29 PM
I've seen other studies showing Trump supporters to be more vaccine resistant.  As I noted, they also are older in general, and that is a factor.

This is why Trump got booed by his own crowd.
yeah...which was always weird as hell to me. Trump fast tracked the vaccines- so of course he took credit for them and touted the "tremendous" "excellent" "tremendous" job he did in helping get a vaccine to market in record time.

He said he got the vaccines himself and was boosted, and he encouraged everyone to- and he still got booed by his own crowds and stupid people in the media still blamed him for his voters being vaccine hesitant. 

That was one of the really weird things about COVID to me- the politicization of it all. And it was super weird to me that Trump touted the vaccines- got shit on by his own voters for doing so- and got labeled by media as anti-vax. propaganda is strong af these days. words almost have no meaning anymore.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 06:19:34 PM
Deer in study show 'stunning' rate of COVID. How'd they get it? What's it mean? : Goats and Soda : NPR (https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/03/09/1084440012/researcher-finds-stunning-rate-of-covid-among-deer-heres-what-it-means-for-human)

This strikes me as potentially really really bad news.  Twenty percent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 09, 2022, 06:31:14 PM
I'm not overly worried about Deerona.  When the Zombie Deer Uprising occurs, I own several excellent rifles that will help take care of them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 09, 2022, 06:39:15 PM
The transportation issue for rural people is bullshit - they "go to town" every so often to buy food and other things to keep them alive.  Adding a vaccination appointment is nothing.  

Let's not pretend these people hitch-hike to the big city or have the Army air-drop food and medicine once a month to them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 06:40:24 PM
I heard they do have a tough time making photo copies though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 09, 2022, 06:41:40 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on March 09, 2022, 05:07:05 PM
That was one of the really weird things about COVID to me- the politicization of it all. And it was super weird to me that Trump touted the vaccines- got shit on by his own voters for doing so- and got labeled by media as anti-vax. propaganda is strong af these days. words almost have no meaning anymore.
Yeah.
If a group of people are hell-bent on doing the opposite of whatever you say, use that, right?

Stay uneducated!!!
Continue mistrusting experts!!!
Statistics are made up!!!
Keep voting against your own self-interests with an ideology you don't actually adhere to!!!


Then sit back and watch the country improve.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 09, 2022, 07:05:27 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 09, 2022, 06:39:15 PM
The transportation issue for rural people is bullshit - they "go to town" every so often to buy food and other things to keep them alive.  Adding a vaccination appointment is nothing. 

Let's not pretend these people hitch-hike to the big city or have the Army air-drop food and medicine once a month to them.
My point was more along the lines of people who probably got COVID, waited too long to seek treatment at all, and then went to rural hospitals without tremendous ICU experience with staffing, ventilators, and knowledge to treat them appropriately. And consequently had higher mortality as a result. 

Granted, on top of it many of them didn't want the vaccine, not that they couldn't make or attend an appointment for one. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 07:05:34 PM
I fear if it's in deer it can rattle around in that population for a while and then zoonose its way back into ours with a new variant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 09, 2022, 07:08:09 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 09, 2022, 07:05:34 PM
I fear if it's in deer it can rattle around in that population for a while and then zoonose its way back into ours with a new variant.
Definitely a concern... The last thing we need is a viral reservoir keeping this thing around to mutate and come back different. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 09, 2022, 07:45:41 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 09, 2022, 07:08:09 PM
Definitely a concern... The last thing we need is a viral reservoir keeping this thing around to mutate and come back different.

For sure.

Thanks goodness there aren't multiple billions of people on this planet that are already serving that function.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 09, 2022, 08:13:11 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 09, 2022, 07:08:09 PM
Definitely a concern... The last thing we need is a viral reservoir keeping this thing around to mutate and come back different.
all we got to do is figure out a way for all deer to catch omicron

problem solved
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 10, 2022, 12:28:07 PM
well screw science and the general public

TSA extends mask mandate till April 18th saying 

The change to the mask guidance leans less heavily on the number of Covid-19 cases as a key measure, instead giving more weight to hospitalizations and local hospital capacity

this is just a power grab

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/tsa-extend-mask-mandate-planes-public-transportation-april-18-rcna19514
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 10, 2022, 12:33:00 PM
Here are the hospitalizations and the TSA is full of crap

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 10, 2022, 01:03:52 PM
I think Austin went from Stage 5 to Stage 3 within a few days last week.  I'm not sure what that really means, everything was already open to full capacity and behavior is unchanged.

The city's school district finally went masks-optional, though. The usual Lockdown Larrys and Mask-up Marvins pitched a fit but I don't expect any real change to outcomes.  My suburban district went mask optional back in late Fall  but lots of kids continue to mask up even now, including my 14yo daughter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2022, 04:39:03 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 10, 2022, 12:28:07 PM
well screw science and the general public

TSA extends mask mandate till April 18th saying

The change to the mask guidance leans less heavily on the number of Covid-19 cases as a key measure, instead giving more weight to hospitalizations and local hospital capacity

this is just a power grab

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/tsa-extend-mask-mandate-planes-public-transportation-april-18-rcna19514
Unreal. This shit has to end NOW.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 10, 2022, 04:53:45 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2022, 04:39:03 PM
Unreal. This shit has to end NOW.
But…..but….but science.   😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2022, 04:57:24 PM
It's political science and has been for some time. I'm sick of it.

Sorry UTee.

(https://i.imgur.com/JGLXVD8.png)

Not sorry.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 10, 2022, 05:00:53 PM
Yeah I gave up on this thread months ago.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 10, 2022, 05:24:54 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 10, 2022, 05:00:53 PM
Yeah I gave up on this thread months ago.


at least we arent talking about putting it on pay per view
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2022, 05:38:58 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 10, 2022, 05:00:53 PM
Yeah I gave up on this thread months ago.


Do you like the cartoon at least?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 10, 2022, 06:05:45 PM
I feel like black and white would have better captured the moment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 11, 2022, 08:12:36 AM
China imposes lockdown on city of 9 million amid omicron cases | TheHill (https://thehill.com/policy/international/china/597808-china-imposes-lockdown-on-city-of-9-million-amid-covid-19-omicron)

China is still fighting this thing with lockdowns.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 11, 2022, 08:19:10 AM
Communism = Control.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 11, 2022, 08:47:54 AM
There's a reason some Chinese factories are 12-18 months behind on orders.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 11, 2022, 09:00:23 AM
Central control is somewhat appealing, I think, on the surface anyway.  You get the brightest people to decide what to do and how to do it, and with total control you simply exert that will.  You don't need the "invisible hand" exerted by peasants, you simply plan centrally and solve problems quickly.

In theory.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 13, 2022, 07:22:11 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/4eKVKrL.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/OIM7Nmr.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 13, 2022, 10:46:24 AM
Theory: Masks are effective.

Experiment (unintentional):

I used black engine paint on the wall where my grill will sit. I did not wear a mask and when I rinsed my nose a lot of black paint came out.

This morning I did a second coat, and wore a heavy black surgical mask.

I rinsed my nose and a lot of black paint came out.

Theory debunked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 13, 2022, 10:54:08 AM
There are obviously good reasons to wear some type of mask in certain situations, I certainly would.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 13, 2022, 11:11:29 AM
COVID ups risks of dementia, cognitive impairment, and decline in older survivors | Ars Technica (https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/03/covid-ups-risks-of-dementia-cognitive-impairment-and-decline-in-older-survivors/?fbclid=IwAR30n6-1eImDKr58uwWUw2RNcbV0YKJl3O15MD1edvU85lQeH-CD5rogRzc)

More bad news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 14, 2022, 09:50:01 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 13, 2022, 10:54:08 AM
There are obviously good reasons to wear some type of mask in certain situations, I certainly would.
Considering that an aerosol paint penetrated the mask, don't you think that same mask has no chance to contain a virus?

The collective total of the virus in the world can be contained in a thimble, I read.

A mask isn't doing jack against that if it can't stop paint.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 14, 2022, 09:52:44 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 11, 2022, 09:00:23 AM
Central control is somewhat appealing, I think, on the surface anyway.  You get the brightest people to decide what to do and how to do it, and with total control you simply exert that will.  You don't need the "invisible hand" exerted by peasants, you simply plan centrally and solve problems quickly.

In theory.
🤮🤮
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 14, 2022, 09:55:42 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 14, 2022, 09:50:01 AM
Considering that an aerosol paint penetrated the mask, don't you think that same mask has no chance to contain a virus?

The collective total of the virus in the world can be contained in a thimble, I read.

A mask isn't doing jack against that if it can't stop paint.
It can stop some percentage of spit droplets projected from coughing, sneezing, and some really juicy yelling.

In the future, folks should probably avoid having sick strangers spit into their mouths and noses.  I think that would be a good place to start.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 14, 2022, 12:23:16 PM
Certain situations is a broad term, including situations unrelated to the virus.  But the virus is transferred in droplets which can be stopped somewhat by a mask.

We are taught to cover our mouth if we cough or sneeze, it's the same idea.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on March 14, 2022, 11:08:29 PM
yeah, so Peter Daszak is clearly a lying sack of shit...and a really bad liar at that too. can't bullshit a bullshitter. this guy is so clearly full of shit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1J9MMYPWqw
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on March 14, 2022, 11:25:04 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 11, 2022, 09:00:23 AM
Central control is somewhat appealing, I think, on the surface anyway.  You get the brightest people to decide what to do and how to do it, and with total control you simply exert that will.  You don't need the "invisible hand" exerted by peasants, you simply plan centrally and solve problems quickly.

In theory.
is this Justin Tredouche speaking?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 14, 2022, 11:58:16 PM
I follow worldometer very closely for USA covid data

Today they adjusted deaths to date down by over 4,000

There is no indication as to where or why this correction happened

But as Ive been saying I was very skeptical of the high amount of covid deaths lately

and sure enough up jumps this correction so I feel vindicated
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 15, 2022, 07:18:48 AM
I''m reading BA.2 is now a problem in Europe and spreading.  Yuck.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 15, 2022, 08:22:40 AM

BA.2 has already begun to spread in the U.S., as well. It accounted for about 12 percent of newly diagnosed cases last week, according to the C.D.C. The variant may also be the reason that the amount of Covid virus detected in wastewater is rising in about one-third (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/dgDBxhqw3aNmqpIMnpUe-g~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRkEvN3P0TWaHR0cHM6Ly9jb3ZpZC5jZGMuZ292L2NvdmlkLWRhdGEtdHJhY2tlci8_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIyMDMxNSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD01NTgxMyZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTE1MzM2ODkxMCZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTg1NTk0JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwYyN3YXN0ZXdhdGVyLXN1cnZlaWxsYW5jZVcDbnl0QgpiKnduMGI4p-a-UhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) of American cities that track such data. Wastewater samples tend to be a leading indicator of case counts.

If that pattern repeats, BA.2 would be about to end two months of falling case counts in the U.S. Since mid-January, the number of new daily Covid cases has dropped more than 95 percent and is now at its lowest level since last summer, before the Delta surge.
The magnitude of any BA.2 increase may be limited by the fact that about 45 percent of Americans have already contracted Omicron. “That should be highly protective,” Andy Slavitt, a former Biden administration adviser, wrote yesterday. On the other hand, a 45 percent infection rate means that most Americans did not contract Omicron, leaving many of them susceptible to BA.2.
Even if cases rise, as seems likely, there are good reasons not to panic. Vaccination tends to turn Covid into a mild illness (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/IoKm-NWIskpQ0fU3rro4RQ~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRkEvN3P0TmaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8wMS8zMS9icmllZmluZy9ib29zdGVycy1jZGMtY292aWQtZWZmZWN0aXZlbmVzcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMjAzMTUmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NTU4MTMmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xNTMzNjg5MTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD04NTU5NCZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9OGU1ZDJhMmI1ZTQ4YTY5NjU2MTkyY2MzYWYwYTkwMGNXA255dEIKYip3bjBiOKfmvlIRamNkb29tOUBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~), especially for people who have received a booster. For the unvaccinated and unboosted, BA.2 is another reason to get a shot.
It’s also a reason for the federal government and states to expand access to both Evusheld — a drug that can help protect the immunocompromised — and Paxlovid — a post-infection treatment. Finding either is often difficult (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/QqDDj81wgQgNFCqMAdE6NA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRkEvN3P0ThaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8wMS8xOS9idXNpbmVzcy9jb3ZpZC1waWxsLXRyZWF0bWVudC1wZml6ZXIuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjIwMzE1Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTU1ODEzJm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9MTUzMzY4OTEwJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9ODU1OTQmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPThlNWQyYTJiNWU0OGE2OTY1NjE5MmNjM2FmMGE5MDBjVwNueXRCCmIqd24wYjin5r5SEWpjZG9vbTlAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) today. (If you’re looking for one of them, click on this link for Evusheld (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/J5JNlGG_4Z4JBwwJdrCHHA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRkEvN3P0S4aHR0cHM6Ly9ycmVseWVhLmdpdGh1Yi5pby9ldnVzaGVsZC8_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIyMDMxNSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD01NTgxMyZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTE1MzM2ODkxMCZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTg1NTk0JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0QgpiKnduMGI4p-a-UhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) and this one for Paxlovid (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/7O2G9mc9vaWBmipjqq9YSg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRkEvN3P0S4aHR0cHM6Ly9ycmVseWVhLmdpdGh1Yi5pby9wYXhsb3ZpZC8_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIyMDMxNSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD01NTgxMyZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTE1MzM2ODkxMCZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTg1NTk0JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0QgpiKnduMGI4p-a-UhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~).)
The bottom line: Covid isn’t going away, but vaccination and other treatments can keep future increases manageable. The biggest problem remains the millions of people who remain unvaccinated, many of them by choice. That’s the case in the U.S. (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/zDEh6syn43qRUuqjx8rTCg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRkEvN3P0ToaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8wMi8xOC9icmllZmluZy9yZWQtY292aWQtcGFydGlzYW4tZGVhdGhzLXZhY2NpbmVzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIyMDMxNSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD01NTgxMyZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTE1MzM2ODkxMCZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTg1NTk0JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0QgpiKnduMGI4p-a-UhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~), in Hong Kong and across much of Europe (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/ZkTgujZ3CwwKZvQWXby-LA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRkEvN3P0TmaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMS8xNy93b3JsZC9ldXJvcGUvY292aWQtdmFjY2luZS1nZXJtYW55LWV1cm9wZS5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMjAzMTUmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NTU4MTMmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xNTMzNjg5MTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD04NTU5NCZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9OGU1ZDJhMmI1ZTQ4YTY5NjU2MTkyY2MzYWYwYTkwMGNXA255dEIKYip3bjBiOKfmvlIRamNkb29tOUBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~), Africa (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/FJitZnrQ2d-2owBOkVH_lQ~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRkEvN3P0TmaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMi8wMS9icmllZmluZy92YWNjaW5lLWhlc2l0YW5jeS1hZnJpY2Etb21pY3Jvbi5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMjAzMTUmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NTU4MTMmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xNTMzNjg5MTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD04NTU5NCZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9OGU1ZDJhMmI1ZTQ4YTY5NjU2MTkyY2MzYWYwYTkwMGNXA255dEIKYip3bjBiOKfmvlIRamNkb29tOUBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) and the rest of the world.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 15, 2022, 10:42:44 AM
I've got a question on "long COVID"...

I see all sorts of news stories about it. But I have never, I repeat NEVER, seen anything that provides even a rough guess at how prevalent it is. 

Surely, two years into this pandemic, we have some ideas of that, right? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 15, 2022, 10:53:26 AM
I assume BA2 is the second strain of the omicron virus and as such should not repeat the same type of spreading that omicron 1 did at least thats what Ive read

If you have had omicron 1 then the chance of getting omicron 2 is greatly reduced

we'll just have to wait and see what happens
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 15, 2022, 10:56:38 AM
here is an article I found about BA2

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00558-w#:~:text=1%20version%20of%20the%20Omicron,that%20have%20experienced%20a%20BA.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 15, 2022, 10:57:57 AM
I posted some pretty concerning studies about "long COVID" a while back, a significant increase in heart ailments among veterans for example.  It was not a good sign.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 15, 2022, 11:09:06 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 15, 2022, 10:57:57 AM
I posted some pretty concerning studies about "long COVID" a while back, a significant increase in heart ailments among veterans for example.  It was not a good sign.
Its estimated that between 10% and 30% of covid patients get long covid

long covid lasts anywhere from 2 weeks to 4 months

you can get long covid even if your original covid infection was minor
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 15, 2022, 01:01:10 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 15, 2022, 11:09:06 AM
Its estimated that between 10% and 30% of covid patients get long covid

long covid lasts anywhere from 2 weeks to 4 months

you can get long covid even if your original covid infection was minor
Really? Source for that? I've never seen a number at all, and a number that high sounds, well, a little fishy. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 15, 2022, 01:17:01 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 15, 2022, 01:01:10 PM
Really? Source for that? I've never seen a number at all, and a number that high sounds, well, a little fishy.
I ran across a number of sources for this but Im too lazy to go back and list them

feel free to google long covid rate of infection and you will find all you desire
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 15, 2022, 01:22:13 PM
here is one of the many sources

https://www.ama-assn.org/delivering-care/public-health/what-doctors-wish-patients-knew-about-long-covid
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 15, 2022, 01:24:36 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 14, 2022, 11:58:16 PM
I follow worldometer very closely for USA covid data

Today they adjusted deaths to date down by over 4,000

There is no indication as to where or why this correction happened

But as Ive been saying I was very skeptical of the high amount of covid deaths lately

and sure enough up jumps this correction so I feel vindicated
I predict there will be additional adjustments downward
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 15, 2022, 03:35:35 PM
Pfizer to ask FDA to authorize second booster for adults 65 plus | TheHill (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/598311-pfizer-to-ask-fda-to-authorize-second-booster-for-adults-65-plus)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 15, 2022, 03:55:29 PM
Pfizer to ask FDA to authorize second booster for adults 65 plus | TheHill (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/598311-pfizer-to-ask-fda-to-authorize-second-booster-for-adults-65-plus)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on March 15, 2022, 09:35:24 PM
Russia invades Ukraine and suddenly....

(https://i.imgflip.com/44htni.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 16, 2022, 05:45:50 AM
COVID also became much less of consequence in the US.  Nobody knew who he was before COVID, it stands to reason he'd be less public now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 16, 2022, 07:03:22 AM
Quote from: utee94 on March 11, 2022, 08:47:54 AM
There's a reason some Chinese factories are 12-18 months behind on orders. 
This!  

for two years we’ve been told how great they have done on Covid. Nobody believe them of course.

No, suddenly they have a “problem”? In the towns where they make microchips, automobiles, I-phone’s, and other elements critical to the supply chain?   What a coincidence!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 16, 2022, 08:24:01 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 16, 2022, 05:45:50 AM
COVID also became much less of consequence in the US.  Nobody knew who he was before COVID, it stands to reason he'd be less public now.
I suspect he's been told to go away, just like Covid has magically and swiftly gone away.

November and stuff.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 16, 2022, 08:29:29 AM
We all have noted the COVID waves last about two months, this one was no different.  We could be at the start of another one.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 16, 2022, 08:30:33 AM
That was not my point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 16, 2022, 09:18:07 AM
Quote from: Mdot21 on March 15, 2022, 09:35:24 PM
Russia invades Ukraine and suddenly....

(https://i.imgflip.com/44htni.jpg)
Ya he sure did milk it for all it was worth
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 16, 2022, 01:03:06 PM
CDC sewer data suggests bump in US COVID-19 cases (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/cdc-sewer-data-suggests-bump-in-us-covid-19-cases/ar-AAV59A2?ocid=msedgntp)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 16, 2022, 01:08:48 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 16, 2022, 08:29:29 AM
We all have noted the COVID waves last about two months, this one was no different.  We could be at the start of another one.


Have not seen any signs yet CD

But yes a new strain could pop up

But if it did happen this new strain would have to be unrelated to covid to be a problem

We have a huge amount of immunity going on right now
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 16, 2022, 01:11:05 PM
Europe is showing signs of an increase with Omicron BA2.  I don't know if that can persist though.  Hard to tell.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 16, 2022, 01:11:59 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 16, 2022, 01:03:06 PM
CDC sewer data suggests bump in US COVID-19 cases (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/cdc-sewer-data-suggests-bump-in-us-covid-19-cases/ar-AAV59A2?ocid=msedgntp)
so far this has not been reflected in new positive cases so if its a real thing then most folks must have a mild case
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 16, 2022, 01:21:09 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 16, 2022, 01:11:59 PM
so far this has not been reflected in new positive cases so if its a real thing then most folks must have a mild case
Yes, that's where I was going. I suspect most people who get it now don't even know it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on March 16, 2022, 01:51:43 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 16, 2022, 01:03:06 PM
CDC sewer data suggests bump in US COVID-19 cases (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/cdc-sewer-data-suggests-bump-in-us-covid-19-cases/ar-AAV59A2?ocid=msedgntp)
You know whoever runs that has made a “working through some shit” joke far too many times. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 16, 2022, 02:09:26 PM
Their crap's our bread and butter
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on March 17, 2022, 10:11:37 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 16, 2022, 01:11:05 PM
Europe is showing signs of an increase with Omicron BA2.  I don't know if that can persist though.  Hard to tell.


Germany, for one, is showing a noticeably higher rate of new cases that’s gone beyond their initial Omicron wave at the end of this past year. The usual rise in deaths are starting to follow. All of these new variants have started overseas before eventually reaching North America.

(https://i.imgur.com/cz0r4CS.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 17, 2022, 12:05:28 PM
No kidding... Deaths are going down. It's magic!!

(https://i.imgur.com/lkIiUiT.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 17, 2022, 12:06:43 PM
CDC COVID Data Tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 17, 2022, 12:13:19 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 17, 2022, 12:05:28 PM
No kidding... Deaths are going down. It's magic!!

(https://i.imgur.com/lkIiUiT.png)
I mentioned this yesterday
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 17, 2022, 12:17:59 PM
I guess I missed that. Sorry.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 17, 2022, 12:19:09 PM
What is this, a news article for ANTS?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 17, 2022, 02:30:34 PM
Only if you're name is Adam.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on March 18, 2022, 02:14:03 AM
I think we are due for a rise in COVID-19, as the latest version is on the rise in Europe, and East Asia, I hate like hell to say it. I wish we had more variant specific vaccine booster shots, because I am not a pussy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 18, 2022, 07:56:57 AM
Yeah, I agree, I hope the next wave is muted by wide spread resistance.

This is likely to be an annual shot thing for over 65.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2022, 08:24:28 AM
I remain optimistic that Covid will not be a major problem moving forward. Sure, it's never going away, but we need to live with it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 18, 2022, 01:12:45 PM
Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla received $24.3 million in total compensation for 2021 (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/18/pfizer-ceo-albert-bourla-received-24point3-million-in-total-compensation-for-2021.html)

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla received $24.3 million in total compensation for 2021, a 15% increase over the prior year as the company’s full-year profit more than doubled with the successful rollout of its Covid vaccine.
Bourla took home a cash incentive of $8 million on top of his salary of $1.69 million. He also received stock and options totaling $13.2 million as well as $1.38 million in other compensation.

Bourla’s total equity holdings, nearly 597,000 shares, are worth more than $32 million as of Thursday’s closing price of $54.24. He’s also entitled to a golden parachute valued at nearly $113 million as of Dec. 31, if the company is sold and he loses his job as a result.
Bourla also received more than $336,000 for home security and more than $60,000 for air travel. His total salary is 262 times higher than the median compensation for a normal employee at Pfizer.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 18, 2022, 03:05:39 PM
Fauci warns COVID-19 infection rates likely to increase | TheHill (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/598767-fauci-warns-covid-19-infection-rates-likely-to-increase-soon)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2022, 03:10:24 PM
Another day, another "correction" from the CDC. I suspect we will be seeing more of these.

(https://i.imgur.com/QfpNUXe.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2022, 03:11:20 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 18, 2022, 03:05:39 PM
Fauci warns COVID-19 infection rates likely to increase | TheHill (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/598767-fauci-warns-covid-19-infection-rates-likely-to-increase-soon)
He's dead to me. Did not click.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on March 18, 2022, 03:18:06 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2022, 03:11:20 PM
He's dead to me. Did not click.
it's kinda crazy to me that he's the highest paid employee in the entire federal government. 

US President does not make nearly enough money if you ask me. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2022, 03:32:46 PM
Quote from: Mdot21 on March 18, 2022, 03:18:06 PM
it's kinda crazy to me that he's the highest paid employee in the entire federal government.

US President does not make nearly enough money if you ask me.
They do just fine when you take the all the dirty side money into account.

I can think of only one president who came out with less wealth upon leaving office than entering it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MaximumSam on March 18, 2022, 03:39:22 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2022, 03:32:46 PM
They do just fine when you take the all the dirty side money into account.

I can think of only one president who came out with less wealth upon leaving office than entering it.
Harry Truman
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on March 18, 2022, 04:00:18 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2022, 03:32:46 PM
They do just fine when you take the all the dirty side money into account.

I can think of only one president who came out with less wealth upon leaving office than entering it.
need to pay them more, and remove the dirty side money. $700k a pop wall street speeches are just after the fact bribes. it's an unspoken thing. scratch my back while you're in office, we'll scratch yours when you get out.

Trump's net worth took a hit because some people and some businesses started "canceling" him over his controversial statements and twitter account.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on March 18, 2022, 04:01:54 PM
Quote from: MaximumSam on March 18, 2022, 03:39:22 PM
Harry Truman
Truman was always pretty much poor. Before he took office and after. Not sure his net worth decreased after he left, he was broke his entire life. 

Truman was correct though with his famous quote, "show me a man who got rich by being a politician and I'll show you a crook." 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 18, 2022, 04:02:32 PM
Do they get dirty side money while in office?  Or just later?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on March 18, 2022, 04:07:04 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 18, 2022, 04:02:32 PM
Do they get dirty side money while in office?  Or just later?
no, they scratch the backs of their donors while in office and do the bidding of their donors while in office. then soon as they get out of office, they get their backs scratched by said donors they had just spent years doing the bidding of. 

Obama is the perfect example of this. Leaked emails showed his first cabinet was basically hand-picked by Citigroup. He bailed out all of Wall Street, refused to investigate/prosecute a single person or entity, and let these jagoffs pay themselves their bonuses with the money they were given by the federal gov't. One of his very last acts in office was to bail out Wall Street private equity landlords. Soon as he gets out of office he's being paid millions of dollars by Wall Street firms to give bullshit 30-60 minute speeches.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on March 18, 2022, 04:09:17 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 18, 2022, 03:29:36 PM
I suspect (hope) the Russians have issues with their nuclear arsenal.

Last Typhoon: Can The World’s Largest Submarine Still Destroy The World? (forbes.com) (https://www.forbes.com/sites/hisutton/2020/08/23/last-typhoon-can-the-worlds-largest-submarine-still-destroy-the-world/?sh=7e6dbf4d6ec2)

They have one last Typhoon that might be operational, or not.  They wouldn't use this is any first strike though.  Their land based missiles would be used, they are more accurate, and would be attempting to reduce our retaliatory capacity.  But we have ten Ohio class boomers, not all on station at one time of course, but five usually are, and that's a lot.  Then you have the land based ICBMs and B2s (2o of them).  That's a lot to try and negate in a first strike, especially if your gear has not been maintained well.
did you mean to put this in the Ukraine-Russia thread? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 18, 2022, 04:10:20 PM
I don't entirely understand why Fauci gets so much disdain thrown his way, but whatever.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 18, 2022, 04:10:50 PM
Yes, wrong thread.  I'm getting old.  I am old.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 19, 2022, 10:00:51 AM
BA2 is causing a small increase of cases in Europe and theres speculation we could see a small increase here

so far this has not happened but it would not surprise me to see a mini wave very short lived here

Fauci is saying we might need to lock down again but thats a load of crap
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2022, 10:04:23 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 18, 2022, 04:02:32 PM
Do they get dirty side money while in office?  Or just later?
???

Before, during and after.

And, this is not the right thread for this topic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2022, 10:06:02 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 18, 2022, 04:10:20 PM
I don't entirely understand why Fauci gets so much disdain thrown his way, but whatever.
Have you seen his latest bullshit?

More lockdowns could be needed soon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 19, 2022, 10:09:26 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2022, 10:06:02 AM
Have you seen his latest bullshit?

More lockdowns could be needed soon.
yes as I mentioned above

it wont take long for the media to start the mask shit up again

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2022, 10:23:25 AM
To say we MAY need more lockdowns is not saying much.  In the below, he really isn't saying anything.

I'd like to see his actual quote, though I don't think it really matters.

Fauci warns COVID-19 infection rates likely to increase | TheHill (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/598767-fauci-warns-covid-19-infection-rates-likely-to-increase-soon)

"I would not be surprised if in the next few weeks we see somewhat of either a flattening of our diminution or maybe even an increase," Fauci said on the ABC News podcast “Start Here,” ABC News reported (https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fauci-covid-19-cases-increase-necessarily-hospitalizations/story?id=83509114'). 

"Whether or not that is going to lead to another surge, a mini surge or maybe even a moderate surge, is very unclear because there are a lot of other things that are going on right now," he added.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 19, 2022, 10:40:19 AM
if you're not really saying anything

why stand next to the microphone?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2022, 10:43:11 AM
He got asked questions and responded.  Any of us could say the same, maybe this, maybe that, we don't get asked.

What he says we've noted here for over a week now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 19, 2022, 10:57:08 AM
don't stand next to the mic to take questions

tell them there's nothing to talk about

be truthful
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2022, 11:04:05 AM
I think it very reasonable to note Europe may be on the upswing, as we have here, and say we might have another surge, or not. 

Anyway, I don't personally feel anything good or bad about Fauci, he's pretty much irrelevant in my world.  I'm not going out of my way to criticize him about hypotheticals.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 19, 2022, 11:36:47 AM
me either

like most talking heads, I don't pay much attention
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2022, 03:28:23 PM
Health experts predict uptick in U.S. Covid cases due to new BA.2 variant (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/20/health-experts-predict-uptick-in-us-covid-cases-due-to-new-bapoint2-variant.html)

Hopefully this will be brief and mild.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 20, 2022, 04:15:01 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 20, 2022, 03:28:23 PM
Health experts predict uptick in U.S. Covid cases due to new BA.2 variant (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/20/health-experts-predict-uptick-in-us-covid-cases-due-to-new-bapoint2-variant.html)

Hopefully this will be brief and mild.
they could have just asked me

I posted about this upthread
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 22, 2022, 10:38:33 AM
https://thefederalist.com/2022/03/22/cdc-tells-new-york-times-it-hid-covid-data-for-political-reasons/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 22, 2022, 10:52:12 AM
ICU usage for patients with Covid is at around 3 percent in Florida.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 22, 2022, 02:20:40 PM
Don't even hear anything on the news about COVID anymore.  Apparently, Putin ended COVID...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 22, 2022, 02:35:50 PM
I guess we need something else now, to end Putin?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 22, 2022, 02:38:22 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 22, 2022, 02:35:50 PM
I guess we need something else now, to end Putin?
Just one well-placed bullet, should do the trick.  I'd give $100 to the person who did it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 22, 2022, 07:42:12 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 22, 2022, 10:38:33 AM
https://thefederalist.com/2022/03/22/cdc-tells-new-york-times-it-hid-covid-data-for-political-reasons/
U posted about this upthread too
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 22, 2022, 07:43:28 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 22, 2022, 10:52:12 AM
ICU usage for patients with Covid is at around 3 percent in Florida.
about the same as reptile incidents
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 22, 2022, 07:43:57 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 22, 2022, 02:38:22 PM
Just one well-placed bullet, should do the trick.  I'd give $100 to the person who did it.
I'll match that Benjamin
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2022, 12:07:40 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 22, 2022, 02:20:40 PM
Don't even hear anything on the news about COVID anymore.  Apparently, Putin ended COVID...
I'm seeing quite a few reports about it likely to hit us soon, again.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 23, 2022, 12:34:53 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 23, 2022, 12:07:40 PM
I'm seeing quite a few reports about it likely to hit us soon, again.


I still think at most we may see a small surge which will be short lived.  Folks who have had BA1 have a big immunity to BA2 according to the experts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 23, 2022, 01:37:25 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 23, 2022, 12:07:40 PM
I'm seeing quite a few reports about it likely to hit us soon, again.


I'm not.  Not on mainstream news channels anyway.  If I go seek out info specifically about COVID, I see it mentioned.

I'm hopeful that during future waves, the focus will be on actual sick people, rather than case counting. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on March 23, 2022, 04:04:57 PM
Nationally reported Covid deaths reach over 1 Million:

(https://i.imgur.com/NVOIlsc.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2022, 06:12:16 PM
The only reason I ever look at web sites for MSM is to see what is being pushed out there each day, not for hard information.  If I want the latter, I look for more detailed sources which I hope are more reliable.  Fauci of course is an excellent source of such info on COVID.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 23, 2022, 06:20:26 PM
I work from home and have "the news" on for several hours each morning.  The best channel is the local Time Warner Cable one.  Their coverage of national and international news is solid and factual, with minimal-to-zero editorializing. And then of course they cover local news that's far more relevant to my day-to-day, anyway.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 23, 2022, 06:26:22 PM
Have they done any segments on the slackers working from home? Like to see some charts on that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 23, 2022, 06:26:55 PM
you just made the list, pal
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2022, 06:27:43 PM
My wife has local news on fairly often, I rarely pay any attention if I'm around, or if I'm not.

The local news is predictable, something heinous, a bad auto accident or three, something about the mayor or governor, the weather, sports, and some feel good story.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 23, 2022, 06:29:00 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 22, 2022, 02:38:22 PM
Just one well-placed bullet, should do the trick.  I'd give $100 to the person who did it.
Ya cheap squeek that wouldn't cover the cost of the Stoli needed to do the job
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 23, 2022, 06:39:05 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 23, 2022, 06:29:00 PM
Ya cheap squeek that wouldn't cover the cost of the Stoli needed to do the job
Well I'm not footing the bill for the whole thing.  I do my part, you do yours, amigo.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2022, 06:54:34 PM
Covid: Omicron BA.2 subvariant will soon dominate in U.S., but Fauci doesn't see a surge (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/covid-omicron-bapoint2-subvariant-will-soon-dominate-in-us-but-fauci-doesnt-expect-another-surge.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 23, 2022, 07:03:33 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 23, 2022, 06:54:34 PM
Covid: Omicron BA.2 subvariant will soon dominate in U.S., but Fauci doesn't see a surge (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/covid-omicron-bapoint2-subvariant-will-soon-dominate-in-us-but-fauci-doesnt-expect-another-surge.html)
well if Fauci says that then thats good enough for me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on March 23, 2022, 10:52:54 PM
Been in San Francisco this week,  admittedly 90% of my time in financial district, surprised at so many maskless.    Still a decent chunk wear masks but I saw almost zero in Park City Utah this month .  I think Boston and parts of DC NYC are the last hard-core masking outposts. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2022, 07:42:23 AM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on March 23, 2022, 04:04:57 PM
Nationally reported Covid deaths reach over 1 Million:

(https://i.imgur.com/NVOIlsc.jpg)
China did that in the first month.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2022, 07:45:18 AM
Quote from: MarqHusker on March 23, 2022, 10:52:54 PM
Been in San Francisco this week,  admittedly 90% of my time in financial district, surprised at so many maskless.    Still a decent chunk wear masks but I saw almost zero in Park City Utah this month .  I think Boston and parts of DC NYC are the last hard-core masking outposts.
It's pretty easy to tell who is from those places around here.

Soon they will all leave and there will be no masks to be seen.

I can't wait. F'ing F'balls. GO HOME!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2022, 07:45:55 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/dVy3Der.png)

Kris Van Cleave on Twitter: "The letter is signed by the CEOs of Alaska, American, Atlas, Delta, FedEx Express, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Southwest, United, UPS Airlines and the CEO of Airlines for America—the trade association representing the carriers." / Twitter (https://twitter.com/krisvancleave/status/1506739422083129347?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1506739422083129347|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2022, 08:17:50 AM
Why don't kids get Covid badly? Scientists are starting to understand (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/24/why-dont-kids-get-covid-badly-scientists-are-starting-to-understand.html)

Not really anything very revealing in that.

Obesity seems to be a factor in many.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2022, 06:30:17 AM
How anti-vaccine activists and the GOP are growing closer : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2021/12/06/1057344561/anti-vaccine-activists-political-conference-trump-republicans)

This is a bit weird, more than a bit, to me.  I understand that "one percent" of the population is inherently going to have extreme views on various and sundry.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2022, 06:41:48 AM
Doctors who spread COVID misinformation can easily renew their medical licenses : Shots - Health News : NPR (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/11/04/1051873608/a-doctor-spread-covid-misinformation-and-renewed-her-license-with-a-mouse-click)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 25, 2022, 08:59:41 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 25, 2022, 06:41:48 AM
Doctors who spread COVID misinformation can easily renew their medical licenses : Shots - Health News : NPR (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/11/04/1051873608/a-doctor-spread-covid-misinformation-and-renewed-her-license-with-a-mouse-click)
Why not?

Government officials (including doctors) have been spreading Covid misinformation for two years, and they get to keep their jobs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2022, 09:04:35 AM
I thought it interesting how easy it is to renew a license and why.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 25, 2022, 09:07:14 AM
I didn't click on it. NPR doesn't get clicks from me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2022, 09:12:45 AM
I scan NPR once a day, usually.  I find some of their stuff interesting, and it often provides a different perspective.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 25, 2022, 09:37:28 AM
Needs to be defunded.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 25, 2022, 09:42:50 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 25, 2022, 09:37:28 AM
Needs to be defunded.
What?

you don’t read National Propaganda against Republicans?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 25, 2022, 09:47:09 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 25, 2022, 09:07:14 AM
I didn't click on it. NPR doesn't get clicks from me.
It used to for me with "Car Talk",Wait wait don't tell me,Prarie Home Companion all solid wholesome efforts - there were more,but ya no longer for a long time
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on March 25, 2022, 09:08:02 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 25, 2022, 09:37:28 AM
Needs to be defunded.
it's literal garbage. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on March 25, 2022, 09:08:44 PM
this guy makes incredible videos straight up clowning media....this one on coronavirus is terrific...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zl-X-Lgrlf0
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on March 25, 2022, 09:23:29 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 25, 2022, 06:30:17 AM
How anti-vaccine activists and the GOP are growing closer : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2021/12/06/1057344561/anti-vaccine-activists-political-conference-trump-republicans)

This is a bit weird, more than a bit, to me.  I understand that "one percent" of the population is inherently going to have extreme views on various and sundry.
it's a bit weird because the article is pure unadulterated propaganda bullshit from NPR just like 99.9% of the trash they shit out of their disgusting asses. 

there's a massive difference and distinction between being anti-mandate and anti-vaccine. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 26, 2022, 07:59:05 AM
I found the article interesting, and balanced.

The conference was clearly of the antivaxx ilk, not anti-mandate.  I wouldn't attend obviously, it's kooky stuff, homeopathic crap and whatnot.  It's understandable how some antigovernment types (now that Trump is out) would be attracted to such things.  Basically, it's a group of folks united in varied beliefs of conspiracies and "they" who are against us, working secretly to embed chips in us, or create world government, or let the UN take our guns, or set up Walmarts as reeducation camps for Trump supporters, or whatever else of similar ilk.  They adopted Trump as Their Guy and don't want this vaccine because, well, because Trump got it all rolling?

I am all astonishment, literally.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 26, 2022, 09:52:30 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 26, 2022, 07:59:05 AM
I found the article interesting, and balanced.

The conference was clearly of the antivaxx ilk, not anti-mandate.  I wouldn't attend obviously, it's kooky stuff, homeopathic crap and whatnot.  It's understandable how some antigovernment types (now that Trump is out) would be attracted to such things.  Basically, it's a group of folks united in varied beliefs of conspiracies and "they" who are against us, working secretly to embed chips in us, or create world government, or let the UN take our guns, or set up Walmarts as reeducation camps for Trump supporters, or whatever else of similar ilk.  They adopted Trump as Their Guy and don't want this vaccine because, well, because Trump got it all rolling?

I am all astonishment, literally.
so you didnt give a source

any reason
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 26, 2022, 09:59:53 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 25, 2022, 06:30:17 AM
How anti-vaccine activists and the GOP are growing closer : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2021/12/06/1057344561/anti-vaccine-activists-political-conference-trump-republicans)

This is a bit weird, more than a bit, to me.  I understand that "one percent" of the population is inherently going to have extreme views on various and sundry.
Previously posted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 26, 2022, 10:00:58 AM
I run into a thing often, someone posts a citation, and someone else disparages it simply because it's from Fox News, or NPR, or heaven forbid MSNBC.  The article MAY be entirely accurate of course, but it's discounted because of the source, not because the article is not factual.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 26, 2022, 10:03:36 AM
Better sources are best.

(https://i.imgur.com/QEifcNG.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/OewNdwk.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 26, 2022, 10:09:04 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 26, 2022, 09:59:53 AM
Previously posted.
ok the NPR thing

looks like just a hit piece to me

Its real simple Americans dont like the Federal Government telling them what they have to do

Getting vaxed is not in itself a bad thing unless the choice is taken away from the individual

This plus the fact the CDC hides information from the public in an agenda driven way

To try to divide this between Trump supporters and non Trump supporters is crap
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 26, 2022, 10:13:31 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 26, 2022, 10:09:04 AM
ok the NPR thing

looks like just a hit piece to me

Its real simple Americans dont like the Federal Government telling them what they have to do

Getting vaxed is not in itself a bad thing unless the choice is taken away from the individual

This plus the fact the CDC hides information from the public in an agenda driven way

To try to divide this between Trump supporters and non Trump supporters is crap
That's the problem with this. In truth, it is about 50-50 R-D who are anti-vax. The anti-mandate is more like 80-20 R-D.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 26, 2022, 10:14:48 AM
Whatever it looks like to others, I found it useful and interesting.  There is pretty solid data showing higher death rates in counties that voted for Trump vs those who voted for Biden, a solid correlation, of course, the data could be falsified somehow.

I personally find most of the folks who don't want anything to do with the COVID vaccine are also Trump supporters.  There is a fringe on the left that is pretty much antivax everything.  It's rare in my experience to find anyone politically near the middle who has not gotten the vaccine.  That's anecdotal rather than statistical of course.

I find it fascinating really.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 26, 2022, 10:18:27 AM
Coronavirus Vaccines Highlight a Deadly Political Divide | The Report | US News (https://www.usnews.com/news/the-report/articles/2021-07-23/coronavirus-vaccines-highlight-a-deadly-political-divide)

I see analysis after analysis showing this divide, I believe it is very real.

And to the extent that is already happening, it's happening along party lines, as the new wave of the pandemic becomes a [color=var(--blue-50)]crisis of the unvaccinated (https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2021-07-16/cdc-head-covid-19-becoming-pandemic-of-the-unvaccinated)[/iurl]. The [color=var(--blue-50)]nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation[/color] (https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-february-2021/) found that 75% of Democrats have already been vaccinated; just 41% of Republicans said the same. Blue states are more likely to have tighter mask or vaccines rules; colleges that require vaccination, for example, are more likely to be located in states President Joe Biden won last November, KFF reports.[/font][/font][/size][/color]
Vaccinations have increased faster, too, in counties that voted for Biden compared to those that voted for former President Donald Trump, the health policy research group reported. As of April 22, the average vaccination rate in Trump counties was 20.6%, only slightly less than the 22.8% vaccination rate in Biden counties.

"If you're walking around with a mask on, people will assume you're a Democrat."

By July 6, the gap had widened, with the average vaccination rate in Trump counties at 35%, with the rate in Biden counties at 46.7%, [color=var(--blue-50)]the group found (https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/the-red-blue-divide-in-covid-19-vaccination-rates-is-growing/)[/iurl].[/font][/font][/size][/color]


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 26, 2022, 10:20:23 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 26, 2022, 10:14:48 AM
Whatever it looks like to others, I found it useful and interesting.  There is pretty solid data showing higher death rates in counties that voted for Trump vs those who voted for Biden, a solid correlation, of course, the data could be falsified somehow.

I personally find most of the folks who don't want anything to do with the COVID vaccine are also Trump supporters.  There is a fringe on the left that is pretty much antivax everything.  It's rare in my experience to find anyone politically near the middle who has not gotten the vaccine.  That's anecdotal rather than statistical of course.

I find it fascinating really.
Using that logic you could go back to the beginning of the pandemic and note that the vast majority of deaths happened in minority areas in large cities and come to a conclusion that we are treating folks in a racist way.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 26, 2022, 10:23:07 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 26, 2022, 10:14:48 AM
Whatever it looks like to others, I found it useful and interesting.  There is pretty solid data showing higher death rates in counties that voted for Trump vs those who voted for Biden, a solid correlation, of course, the data could be falsified somehow.

I personally find most of the folks who don't want anything to do with the COVID vaccine are also Trump supporters.  There is a fringe on the left that is pretty much antivax everything.  It's rare in my experience to find anyone politically near the middle who has not gotten the vaccine.  That's anecdotal rather than statistical of course.

I find it fascinating really.
There are a LOT more rural counties that are red than blue, and rural counties generally lack the top healthcare facilities available in urban areas.

Makes sense. An example:


(https://i.imgur.com/wwNwWwN.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 26, 2022, 11:15:59 AM
I got my last shot at a CVS.  You don't need some top notch medical facility to get a shot.

I hear they can have problems making photocopies though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 26, 2022, 11:36:01 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/uwqWH5S.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 29, 2022, 11:29:55 AM
FDA authorizes fourth Pfizer and Moderna Covid vaccine doses for people age 50 and older (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/29/fda-authorizes-fourth-pfizer-covid-vaccine-dose-for-people-age-50-and-older-.html)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 29, 2022, 11:33:21 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 29, 2022, 11:29:55 AM
FDA authorizes fourth Pfizer and Moderna Covid vaccine doses for people age 50 and older (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/29/fda-authorizes-fourth-pfizer-covid-vaccine-dose-for-people-age-50-and-older-.html)


I thought the vacs had not protection against omicron so why would anyone get another shot until they offer a vac against the current virus out there
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 29, 2022, 11:39:34 AM
They offer some protection against Omicron, it's less effective and tends to diminish with time.  There is discussion about the core purpose of vaccines, which is good.  Are they to prevent the disease or just cause it to be much milder?  Or both?  I sense it is shifting to making the disease less dangerous.

Israeli scientists, in a study published last wee (https://assets.researchsquare.com/files/rs-1478439/v1/24514bba-2c9d-4add-9d8f-321f610ed199.pdf?c=1648141784)k, found the death rate from omicron was 78% lower in senior citizens 60- to 100-years-old who received a fourth Pfizer (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/PFE) dose compared with those who received just three shots. The study, which has not undergone peer review, examined the medical records of more than 500,000 people from January through February at Clalit Health Services, Israel’s largest health-care provider.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 29, 2022, 11:46:19 AM
omicron already is less dangerous 

unless another strain comes along this is over
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 29, 2022, 11:54:10 AM
I hope so, it's still making people sick in pretty substantial numbers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 29, 2022, 12:22:42 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 29, 2022, 11:54:10 AM
I hope so, it's still making people sick in pretty substantial numbers.
so are you gonna get boosters every 6 months for the rest of your life

I doubt it until another strain shows itself herd immunity has kicked in 

Im not sure this will even be seasonal

what folks ought to do is get an antibody test to see if a 4th booster would actually help them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 29, 2022, 12:36:45 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 26, 2022, 10:00:58 AM
I run into a thing often, someone posts a citation, and someone else disparages it simply because it's from Fox News, or NPR, or heaven forbid MSNBC.  The article MAY be entirely accurate of course, but it's discounted because of the source, not because the article is not factual.
Questionable news sources like Fox, or CNN, or MSNBC, or NPR, have created this problem for themselves.  By consistently reporting only certain things that are obviously slanted to their agenda, they call into question all of their reporting.

If I know that Fox or CNN only report things that support their agenda and world view, then I'm more likely to question why they're choosing to report it at all, and I'm more likely to dismiss it.

It doesn't mean I dismiss everything they report, but it does mean I question their reason for reporting it, and I am ever suspicious of their motives for reporting a particular item.

They've earned this treatment after pursuing decades of editorial agenda-driven propaganda.

I'm similarly suspicious of things I see reported from Al Jazeera and Russian state media.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 29, 2022, 12:41:34 PM
We usually can spot hard news, and then spin.  One can filter it out I think with relative ease, with some exceptions.  If your primary news source ignores a news item, of course you're SOL.

There was a recent story that Mueller had apparently said something that could confirm the Clinton campaign was in on the Trump - Russia thing.  The spin cycle on that was epic, it took 2-3 days for it to even get mentioned in some outlets, and then it was discussed with considerable spin.  Now, it's also true that the Trump Network was also spinning the story.  The actual hard quote from the Mueller thing was pretty vague, in my view.  But one can look at the actual verbatim from some source of said information and see if the spin is at all correct.

The story didn't have legs, perhaps because of Ukraine, I suppose in time it either will disappear into nothingness or get resurrected in some more tangible form.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 29, 2022, 12:43:12 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 29, 2022, 12:22:42 PM
so are you gonna get boosters every 6 months for the rest of your life
I don't know, probably not every six months, maybe annually.  This is optional at this point, I'd rather have the personal option to choose another shot, or not.

I'm still trying to look into the data as it is reported and think about what I want from this.  I don't think I'll get shot 4 any time soon, maybe in 2-3-4 months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 29, 2022, 01:00:38 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 29, 2022, 12:43:12 PM
I don't know, probably not every six months, maybe annually.  This is optional at this point, I'd rather have the personal option to choose another shot, or not.

I'm still trying to look into the data as it is reported and think about what I want from this.  I don't think I'll get shot 4 any time soon, maybe in 2-3-4 months.

My 14yo was eligible for her 3rd shot in early March.  I asked her doctor about it, and she said that she'd advise holding off, as Omicron was diminishing rapidly at that point.  She said to keep our eyes on the news and if the numbers start increasing again, then it would make sense to come in for her booster at that point.  Given the relative risk for children, I find that to be a reasonable approach.

For adults in high risk categories either by age or comorbidities, other approaches would be reasonable.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 29, 2022, 01:03:33 PM
I wouldn't want to get the current booster now and have an Omicron specific vaccine available in 2-3-4 months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 30, 2022, 08:04:54 AM
Omicron is gonna be gone in 4 months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 30, 2022, 08:07:41 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 29, 2022, 11:29:55 AM
FDA authorizes fourth Pfizer and Moderna Covid vaccine doses for people age 50 and older (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/29/fda-authorizes-fourth-pfizer-covid-vaccine-dose-for-people-age-50-and-older-.html)


EFF THEM !!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 30, 2022, 08:41:04 AM
As I said, having the option available to me is my preference.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 30, 2022, 08:55:13 AM
Correct. So long it is not a mandate, so be it.

Seems to me, however, that the drug companies are simply seeking to extend their profits.



Antibody testing is not free, nor is it covered by insurance. 

WHY NOT???

I'm pretty sure I know why not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 30, 2022, 08:57:09 AM
Antibody tests from what I have read are not very reliable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 30, 2022, 08:58:53 AM
Mine was, so I'm an advocate.

And, in May 2020, it was free. Not anymore.

WHY??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 30, 2022, 08:01:19 PM
This guy needs to take his millions and retire some place where the media cant find him


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fauci-lockdowns-worth-it-too-severe
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 31, 2022, 12:30:38 PM
Ivermectin doesn't prevent COVID-19 hospitalization, a new study says : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2022/03/30/1089809588/ivermectin-covid-treatment-brazil-study)

"Treatment with ivermectin did not result in a lower incidence of medical admission to a hospital due to progression of Covid-19 or of prolonged emergency department observation among outpatients with an early diagnosis of Covid-19."
There have already been some clinical trials done earlier in the pandemic that showed ivermectin is not effective against COVID-19.
The Food and Drug Administration has strongly urged against using the animal version of ivermectin to fight COVID-19, warning it can cause nausea, vomiting, abdominal pain, neurologic disorders and potentially severe hepatitis requiring hospitalization.
This warning hasn't stopped the drug's popularity with some people seeking to treat COVID.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 31, 2022, 12:52:05 PM
On the bright side, there are a lot of COVID sufferers that have been de-wormed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 31, 2022, 01:05:34 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 31, 2022, 12:52:05 PM
On the bright side, there are a lot of COVID sufferers that have been de-wormed.
yep so they got that goin for em
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 31, 2022, 01:19:39 PM
...which is nice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 02, 2022, 08:27:32 AM
The prevalence of COVID-19 in the U.K. has reached record levels, with about 1 in 13 people estimated to be infected with the virus in the past week, latest figures from Britain’s official statistics agency showed.

Some 4.9 million people were estimated to have the coronavirus in the week ending March 26, up from 4.3 million recorded in the previous week, the Office for National Statistics said Friday, The latest surge is driven by the more transmissible omicron variant BA.2, which is the dominant variant across the U.K.

Hospitalizations and death rates are again rising, although the number of people dying with COVID-19 is still relatively low compared with earlier this year. Nonetheless, the latest estimates suggest that the steep climb in new infections since late February, when Prime Minister Boris Johnson scrapped all remaining coronavirus restrictions in England, continued well into March.


https://apnews.com/article/covid-boris-johnson-health-england-europe-21439a7dc032c6da225060844721af5a (https://apnews.com/article/covid-boris-johnson-health-england-europe-21439a7dc032c6da225060844721af5a)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 02, 2022, 08:30:31 AM
One in 13, zounds, and it could be higher than that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 02, 2022, 10:22:19 AM
That strain has been in the US for a while and so far we are not seeing any kind of a surge

We will probably have a small one but it will be short lived 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 04, 2022, 01:58:03 PM
a very interesting video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5eJ5TIT6zvk
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 04, 2022, 02:40:57 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 30, 2022, 08:58:53 AM
Mine was, so I'm an advocate.

And, in May 2020, it was free. Not anymore.

WHY??
What would be the application here?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2022, 03:39:55 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 04, 2022, 02:40:57 PM
What would be the application here?
You mean today?


It would be nice for people to get tested for immunity rather than submit to un-needed boosters, for one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 04, 2022, 04:12:19 PM
but, the boosters ARE needed

don't you watch the news?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on April 04, 2022, 05:03:56 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2022, 03:39:55 PM
You mean today?


It would be nice for people to get tested for immunity rather than submit to un-needed boosters, for one.
Ahh. I wasn’t/am not sure of the post vaccine mechanics of that. Ie, would antibodies dissipate in a way those old tests show?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2022, 05:25:08 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 04, 2022, 04:12:19 PM
but, the boosters ARE needed

don't you watch the news?
They are available, whether they are needed is probably situational.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2022, 05:27:51 PM
Using Antibody Tests for COVID-19 | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/resources/antibody-tests.html#:~:text=Antibody tests should generally not be used to diagnose a,your body to make antibodies.)

This is the CDC, so you can take it for what it's worth.  I tried to read up on them a while back and at that time, my view was they were worse than useless, too often giving false pos/neg.  Hopefully they have improved.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2022, 06:29:15 AM
Perhaps the CDC should pour a little more gas on the effort to develop antibody testing.

But, certain companies would not like that, right?

Boost away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on April 05, 2022, 08:08:26 PM
came from the lab. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GG32f-OU9p4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GI9ru51GkwA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whN1yasgFMA
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2022, 08:40:34 AM
This is from the NYT today:


To many people’s surprise — including mine (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/S30iLato-2gwwS4O2Nbk3A~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRkL_BAP0TjaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8wMy8xNS9icmllZmluZy9jb3ZpZC1ob25nLWtvbmctb21pY3Jvbi1zdXJnZS5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMjA0MDYmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NTc3MDYmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xNTMzNjg5MTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD04NzYxMyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9OGU1ZDJhMmI1ZTQ4YTY5NjU2MTkyY2MzYWYwYTkwMGNXA255dEIKYktAa01iPdGqC1IRamNkb29tOUBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) — new Covid-19 cases in the U.S. have not begun to rise. Over the past two weeks, they have held roughly steady, falling about 1 percent, even as the highly contagious BA.2 subvariant of Omicron has become the dominant form of Covid in the U.S.

Across much of Europe, by contrast, cases surged last month after BA.2 began spreading there, and many experts expected a similar pattern here. That hasn’t happened. “It has not taken off,” Michael Osterholm, a University of Minnesota epidemiologist, told me.
(https://ci4.googleusercontent.com/proxy/XT2DcptiqUcZ7HP1n4H5rXd-IxHgK8SOzYipVhXX2vUfNdtWVHGPSXif6GyTc5KphM2jqDGIefAuwjXSau5QHCIKYPO6SLdZ671F_JSKK8saK_iz81Gv7pGlhu2ztaj4uaNhNNU0tZVngZXjhn_anYww8ExcH9hbn82UCi5-81MEKGpCEs5-8w=s0-d-e1-ft#https://static01.nyt.com/images/2022/04/05/briefing/06morning-us-europe-cases/oakImage-1649195239214-articleLarge.png)
Chart shows 7-day averages as of April 4. | Sources: New York Times database; Johns Hopkins University
What’s going on? Today’s newsletter looks at four possible explanations.
1. More immunity
Even though the U.S. has a lower vaccination rate than Western Europe, this country may still have built up more immunity — thanks to our politically polarized response to the virus.
In liberal parts of the U.S., vaccination rates can be even higher than in Europe. In conservative communities, many Americans have been so dismissive of Covid that they have long been living almost normally. As a result, the virus has already swept through these communities, conferring at least some immunity on many people.
This laissez-faire approach has had horrible downsides. Covid death rates have been much higher (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/Wtb2wIi71skfAgySnDJLNA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRkL_BAP0ToaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8wMi8xOC9icmllZmluZy9yZWQtY292aWQtcGFydGlzYW4tZGVhdGhzLXZhY2NpbmVzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIyMDQwNiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD01NzcwNiZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTE1MzM2ODkxMCZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTg3NjEzJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0QgpiS0BrTWI90aoLUhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) in counties that voted for Donald Trump than those that voted for Joe Biden. But for people who survived a prior Covid infection, it does confer some immune protection, especially if it was recent.
“Most of Europe has been pretty Covid averse,” William Hanage, a Harvard epidemiologist, said on a recent episode of the “In the Bubble” podcast (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/tO3UrkpZrUogZSBed14vEg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRkL_BAP0TjaHR0cHM6Ly9sZW1vbmFkYW1lZGlhLmNvbS9wb2RjYXN0L2FtZXJpY2FzLW5leHQtb21pY3Jvbi13YXZlLXdpdGgtYmlsbC1oYW5hZ2UvP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMjA0MDYmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NTc3MDYmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xNTMzNjg5MTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD04NzYxMyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9OGU1ZDJhMmI1ZTQ4YTY5NjU2MTkyY2MzYWYwYTkwMGNXA255dEIKYktAa01iPdGqC1IRamNkb29tOUBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~), “whereas parts of the United States have been quite Covid curious.” Hanage said that he still expected U.S. caseloads to rise soon. But, he added, “I don’t think it’s going to be as dramatic as Europe.”
If that’s correct, a preview is already visible in the Northeast, where cases have been rising lately, but not as steeply as in Europe.
(https://ci6.googleusercontent.com/proxy/SVwDI-uxdzwY1KHFPNLaJbsFnQgv1aQFrdyP5lf43M1PuUsRFXCqjPtZuR4-nOA-gfqRFT9eG0zEpOqwXqYvu6jCtAHI1HMAJqNRsUumS7IxFU-tYr9AezBexJmuAGaic3aU81k605z8JAn0XOXUAX3JD90uCri9fDBHP8o1SCQ9Td8jsBJ7SA=s0-d-e1-ft#https://static01.nyt.com/images/2022/04/05/briefing/06morning-us-region-cases/oakImage-1649195438836-articleLarge.png)


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2022, 08:41:33 AM

Throughout the pandemic, Osterholm — the Minnesota epidemiologist — has lamented that many scientists, journalists and laypeople exaggerate (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/70L_-q7_O4pngSBr6TYyCA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRkL_BAP0TnaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8wOC9icmllZmluZy9jb3ZpZC1yZXN0cmljdGlvbnMtZGVsdGEtY2FzZWxvYWQuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjIwNDA2Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTU3NzA2Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9MTUzMzY4OTEwJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9ODc2MTMmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPThlNWQyYTJiNWU0OGE2OTY1NjE5MmNjM2FmMGE5MDBjVwNueXRCCmJLQGtNYj3RqgtSEWpjZG9vbTlAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) how much we actually know about Covid. His favorite example: The Alpha variant swept through Michigan and Minnesota last year and then largely died out, without causing case increases in other parts of the U.S. Another example: BA.2 has recently become the dominant variant in India, South Africa and some other countries without causing a spike in cases (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/P7KRD5xdByUDpoUV6zazLw~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRkL_BAP0TWaHR0cHM6Ly9lcmljdG9wb2wuc3Vic3RhY2suY29tL3AvYS1uZXctd2F2ZS1hbmQtYS1uZXctYm9vc3Rlcj9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjIwNDA2Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTU3NzA2Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9MTUzMzY4OTEwJnM9ciZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTg3NjEzJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0QgpiS0BrTWI90aoLUhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~).

When I called Osterholm yesterday to ask why cases had not surged over the past few weeks, he simply said: “I don’t know, and I don’t think anybody really knows.”
Of all the variants, only the original Omicron was so contagious that it spread around the world in predictable ways, he said. Other versions of the virus have surged and receded in mysterious ways, much as a forest fire can die out without burning down an entire forest.
The bottom line: Cases still seem likely to rise, perhaps significantly, in the U.S. soon. But a new wave looks less certain than it did a few weeks ago. Regardless, the steps that can save lives (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/NyXLmv4TMp6lYC7EtKJKKw~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRkL_BAP0TsaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8wMy8yOC9icmllZmluZy9jb3ZpZC1vbWljcm9uLWNhc2Vsb2FkLWFudGl2aXJhbC1waWxscy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMjA0MDYmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NTc3MDYmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xNTMzNjg5MTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD04NzYxMyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9OGU1ZDJhMmI1ZTQ4YTY5NjU2MTkyY2MzYWYwYTkwMGNXA255dEIKYktAa01iPdGqC1IRamNkb29tOUBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) in coming months remain the same: more vaccine shots, including boosters; and greater awareness of available treatments that offer extra protection for the vulnerable.
More on the virus:
  • A second booster of Pfizer’s Covid vaccine provides modest additional protection (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/aESUs9T90C6uvg6DYL0yqQ~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRkL_BAP4ROAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tL2xpdmUvMjAyMi8wNC8wNS93b3JsZC9jb3ZpZC0xOS1tYW5kYXRlcy1jYXNlcy12YWNjaW5lP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMjA0MDYmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NTc3MDYmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xNTMzNjg5MTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD04NzYxMyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9OGU1ZDJhMmI1ZTQ4YTY5NjU2MTkyY2MzYWYwYTkwMGMjYS1zZWNvbmQtYm9vc3Rlci1oZWxwZWQtcHJvdGVjdC1vbGRlci1wZW9wbGUtZnJvbS1vbWljcm9uLWluZmVjdGlvbi1idXQtd2FuZWQtcXVpY2tseS1hbi1pc3JhZWxpLXN0dWR5LXNheXNXA255dEIKYktAa01iPdGqC1IRamNkb29tOUBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) against Omicron, a study in Israel found.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2022, 08:42:12 AM
If the benefit of a fourth shot is "modest", I think I'll wait until they have an Omicron specific vaccine, if that, depending on how this goes.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 06, 2022, 08:56:31 AM
The benefit might be more than modest in older cohorts.  And less than modest in younger groups.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2022, 09:06:36 AM
My current plan is to wait.  I'm in good health, the rate of spread here is still modest, a better vaccine might come along in 6 months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 06, 2022, 09:54:50 AM
my plan as well
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2022, 10:18:00 AM
I have no plan because I **think** it's just about over.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 06, 2022, 02:36:49 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2022, 10:18:00 AM
I have no plan because I **think** it's just about over.
Because everyone has now had it 3-4 times? ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2022, 03:17:00 PM
3 for me.

I still have not forgotten how you and B.R.A.D. used to pick on me...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 06, 2022, 03:27:14 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2022, 03:17:00 PM
3 for me.

I still have not forgotten how you and B.R.A.D. used to pick on me...
I think I might have had it once in mid December.  Felt like seasonal allergies which I always get at that time, but with a bit of a sore throat, which isn't usual for me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2022, 07:05:30 AM
I truly believe just about everyone has had it - especially omicron. The guard was let down by the time that one hit, and it spread so easily. How could you not get it?

We've got to get a PRC test next week, pre-cruise. I hope neither of us has it right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 07, 2022, 09:25:37 PM
NEW ORLEANS (AP) — President Joe Biden’s requirement that all federal employees be vaccinated against COVID-19 was upheld Thursday by a federal appeals court.

In a 2-1 ruling, a panel of the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals reversed a lower court and ordered dismissal of a lawsuit challenging the mandate. The ruling, a rare win for the administration at the New Orleans-based appellate court, said that the federal judge didn’t have jurisdiction in the case and those challenging the requirement could have pursued administrative remedies under Civil Service law.

Biden issued an executive order Sept. 9 ordering vaccinations for all executive branch agency employees, with exceptions for medical and religious reasons. U.S. District Judge Jeffrey Brown, who was appointed to the District Court for the Southern District of Texas by then-President Donald Trump, issued a nationwide injunction against the requirement in January.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 07, 2022, 09:48:02 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/gVLCS5C.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 09, 2022, 08:08:12 AM
Spring break uptick, I guess?

(https://i.imgur.com/hLdyLT6.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/4rqhN1i.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 11, 2022, 02:44:12 PM
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/277227245_10158486949806245_379021420214807203_n.png?_nc_cat=1&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=VgafjZzKyZkAX-dHfvF&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=00_AT9hFQa2NXnGZG8IH-bpfK-AsTVqxpCMImtDihgZTSn5JQ&oe=62599C3C)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 11, 2022, 02:44:30 PM
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/276199067_10158486949846245_3130964998353031985_n.png?_nc_cat=1&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=xM7GEOS_a7UAX9IEQO9&tn=_MnT8OkIfzNoswba&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=00_AT-5aA-NW0H_dTJkpf4A5xt3qTNC-gh-JsgjoAIn3tsQTA&oe=6258F259)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 11, 2022, 02:44:49 PM
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/276236579_10158486949871245_3916654611051267961_n.png?_nc_cat=1&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=LVzm6QECaqUAX80Oa9V&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=00_AT9RKbpn5vwjZLPmddXWHI3FgYIdBzqiDnlFCwTZKclKow&oe=6259D4F2)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 11, 2022, 02:45:09 PM
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/277103454_10158486949841245_4574400239963255121_n.png?_nc_cat=1&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=eVzXD9VVMycAX-asFxS&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=00_AT8c68c9ic2x04vspR5yCrusyqMM32EVVZqJ-fjYAJ_XGQ&oe=6259C55D)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 11, 2022, 02:45:26 PM
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/277227400_10158486949816245_5461741674149550752_n.png?_nc_cat=1&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=WIa8rWfMsqgAX98Ow5f&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=00_AT8aFbF-R5nsiiH9JNPNzl03ueUiUD5mDQ4pwfjOA9V32Q&oe=62591920)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 11, 2022, 02:45:42 PM
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/277174175_10158486949876245_4622208196220955745_n.png?_nc_cat=101&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=0iS876kOwuIAX_LoRcC&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=00_AT-CHdulWS0xjLWWYZD3mikxKKC0jCDZfWeM_qbpstvw2Q&oe=6258C5B5)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: grillrat on April 11, 2022, 04:29:16 PM
Well, I just got it for the first time last week.  Not the worst cold I've ever had by far, but definitely knocked me down a peg for a few days.  I pretty much had one day where I slept for 18 hours straight.  Bit of fever, bit of cough, bit of taste loss.  I'm mostly back to normal now, but I'm still a touch fatigued.

We are at, what?  About 82 million reported cases here in America.  I think I agree that it's likely at least double or triple that (of which I am certainly guilty also in that I never reported my case), which would put it around half of everybody in America has likely gotten it at least once.  I had said two years ago that everybody you know and love will get this bug some time in the next five years, so that's looking like a pretty accurate prediction.

It's not ever going to go away completely though.  I suspect it will be the new "seasonal flu" equivalent.  It's going to kill about 50,000 people a year, just like a bad flu year, enough that you probably should take it seriously, but not enough that people are going to really really care.  You will be able to get your yearly Covid shot if you want it.  Life will return to 2019 levels of non-interest in preventive health measures.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 11, 2022, 10:26:42 PM
Glad to hear you had mostly mild symptoms
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 11, 2022, 10:27:07 PM
Philadelphia became the first major U.S. city to reinstate its indoor mask mandate on Monday after reporting a sharp increase in coronavirus infections, with the city’s top health official saying she wanted to forestall a potential new wave driven by an omicron subvariant.

Confirmed COVID-19 cases have risen more than 50% in 10 days, the threshold at which the city’s guidelines call for people to wear masks indoors, said Dr. Cheryl Bettigole, the health commissioner. Health officials believe the recent spike is being driven by the highly transmissible BA.2 subvariant of omicron, which has spread rapidly throughout Europe and Asia, and has become dominant in the U.S. in recent weeks.

“If we fail to act now, knowing that every previous wave of infections has been followed by a wave of hospitalizations, and then a wave of deaths, it will be too late for many of our residents,” said Bettigole, noting about 750 Philadelphia residents died in the wintertime omicron outbreak. “This is our chance to get ahead of the pandemic, to put our masks on until we have more information about the severity of this new variant.”


https://apnews.com/article/covid-health-philadelphia-d7f5dacf0ae4ac004e5b15dd58362360 (https://apnews.com/article/covid-health-philadelphia-d7f5dacf0ae4ac004e5b15dd58362360)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 11, 2022, 10:46:49 PM
This appears to be a big over reaction

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/philadelphia-pennsylvania-covid-cases.html

just gotta be in control

Phil Cty has a population of 1.6 Mil

In 10 days the daily case count went from 99 to 146 for aprox 50% increase

sorry but an increase of 47 daily cases over the last 10 days in a population of 1.6 Mil is not justification to have a mask mandate
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 11, 2022, 11:04:40 PM
well, that's just like your opinion, man
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 11, 2022, 11:05:42 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 11, 2022, 11:04:40 PM
well, that's just like your opinion, man
with facts man
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 11, 2022, 11:11:55 PM
was there a beverage there?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 11, 2022, 11:29:24 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 11, 2022, 11:11:55 PM
was there a beverage there?
nope just observations

I predict states like Penn will play this game through mid term election day in hopes of getting the same voting perks they enjoyed a year and a half ago


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 12, 2022, 01:10:37 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 11, 2022, 11:11:55 PM
was there a beverage there?
He has no clue what you're talking about.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 12, 2022, 06:41:23 AM
Quote from: grillrat on April 11, 2022, 04:29:16 PM
Well, I just got it for the first time last week.  Not the worst cold I've ever had by far, but definitely knocked me down a peg for a few days.  I pretty much had one day where I slept for 18 hours straight.  Bit of fever, bit of cough, bit of taste loss.  I'm mostly back to normal now, but I'm still a touch fatigued.

We are at, what?  About 82 million reported cases here in America.  I think I agree that it's likely at least double or triple that (of which I am certainly guilty also in that I never reported my case), which would put it around half of everybody in America has likely gotten it at least once.  I had said two years ago that everybody you know and love will get this bug some time in the next five years, so that's looking like a pretty accurate prediction.

It's not ever going to go away completely though.  I suspect it will be the new "seasonal flu" equivalent.  It's going to kill about 50,000 people a year, just like a bad flu year, enough that you probably should take it seriously, but not enough that people are going to really really care.  You will be able to get your yearly Covid shot if you want it.  Life will return to 2019 levels of non-interest in preventive health measures.
Glad to know it was mild. Omicron gave me nothing - only reason I knew was I had to get a test for travel, so I did one early.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 12, 2022, 06:41:41 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 12, 2022, 01:10:37 AM
He has no clue what you're talking about.
Me too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 13, 2022, 12:38:23 PM
CDC has extended mask mandate for airlines 15 more days

Seems unnecessary 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 13, 2022, 05:40:58 PM
Tested negative today. Boarding the cruise ship tomorrow.

Gotta love the rapid tests that don't work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2022, 05:44:29 PM
Our symphony had dropped the mask/vax requirements, until tonight.  The artist apparently requesrted they be reinstated, some guy named something like "Yo Mama", which is an odd name for an asian dude.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2022, 07:44:37 AM
It would be cool if nobody showed up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 14, 2022, 02:26:37 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 13, 2022, 05:44:29 PM
Our symphony had dropped the mask/vax requirements, until tonight.  The artist apparently requesrted they be reinstated, some guy named something like "Yo Mama", which is an odd name for an asian dude.


😂😂😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2022, 08:53:23 AM
The FDA has given its authorization for the first Covid-19 breath test (https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/14/health/covid-breath-test/index.html). The device, known as the InspectIR Covid-19 Breathalyzer, was granted emergency use authorization (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-first-covid-19-diagnostic-test-using-breath-samples) yesterday and can give results in less than three minutes. It is about the size of a piece of carry-on luggage and can be used in medical offices and mobile testing sites, the FDA said. The system works by separating and identifying chemical mixtures to detect five compounds associated with the virus. A study of the InspectIR Breathalyzer found it accurately identified more than 91% of positive samples and nearly 100% of negative samples. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on April 15, 2022, 08:55:14 AM
That's some pretty slick technology.  Hopefully it can be tuned to the right formula when the next one comes around.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 15, 2022, 08:55:35 AM
Getting ready to check out Key West today. Will report back on the restrictions in place.

This is definitely not Florida...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2022, 09:00:07 AM
I'm surprised they could have found five compounds in our breath indicative of COVID, finding that was the feat here.  Once you know that, the rest is fairly 'easy'.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on April 16, 2022, 01:10:24 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 15, 2022, 08:53:23 AM

The FDA has given its authorization for the first Covid-19 breath test (https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/14/health/covid-breath-test/index.html). The device, known as the InspectIR Covid-19 Breathalyzer, was granted emergency use authorization (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-first-covid-19-diagnostic-test-using-breath-samples) yesterday and can give results in less than three minutes. It is about the size of a piece of carry-on luggage and can be used in medical offices and mobile testing sites, the FDA said. The system works by separating and identifying chemical mixtures to detect five compounds associated with the virus. A study of the InspectIR Breathalyzer found it accurately identified more than 91% of positive samples and nearly 100% of negative samples.
I cannot bear the cocktail straws that scrape my sinus cavities.
I heard on NPR enroute to work this a.m. that this equipment is expensive and not likely to be available at your neighborhood doctor's office. Perhaps it will be available in a hospital setting.
Positive tests have to be confirmed by PCR cocktail straw test, but negative tests do not have to be retested, is what I recall.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2022, 07:01:41 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 15, 2022, 08:55:35 AM
Getting ready to check out Key West today. Will report back on the restrictions in place.

This is definitely not Florida...
So some of the businesses had signs that masks were required - maybe 20% or so?

We just avoided those so our stay was pretty nice and normal. I was wrong in the above bolded statement, and the Key West website is very misleading (not at all surprising).

Now we'll see what the Bahamas look like. Will report back.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 16, 2022, 10:36:37 AM
back when businesses had signs, folks would walk in w/o masks and no one even looked at them funny
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2022, 09:20:40 AM
Bahamas is all mask, all the time. We're gonna pretend it's another sea day and not get off.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2022, 09:37:12 AM
I still wish I hadn't gotten of the ship in the bahamas
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2022, 10:14:08 AM
I was last here in Nassau 37 years ago. If it's like it was then, same. 

Don't need to be accosted by drug dealers. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2022, 10:19:37 AM
I think for some of the cruising public, the ship could just go outside the 12 mile limit and sit.  It's like Golden Corral with an open bar and casino.

The food is better than GC in my experience, ha.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 18, 2022, 05:27:23 PM


https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20220418/judge-strikes-down-biden-mask-mandate-for-planes-transit

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 19, 2022, 08:35:38 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 18, 2022, 05:27:23 PM

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20220418/judge-strikes-down-biden-mask-mandate-for-planes-transit


I did not read about the whole ruling, but does that also apply in airports, train stations and such?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on April 19, 2022, 08:36:44 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 19, 2022, 08:35:38 AM
I did not read about the whole ruling, but does that also apply in airports, train stations and such?
Yes.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2022, 08:39:25 AM
I think citywide transit can still have mandates.  This would apply to anything Federal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 19, 2022, 08:46:15 AM
So, the City of Chicago cannot enforce its own mandate at ORD or MDW?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2022, 08:57:44 AM
Those are under Federal jurisdictions, no?  Airports?

The cities keeping or dropping transit mask mandates - CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/19/us/cities-dropping-transit-mask-mandate/index.html)

I see locally they dropped the mandate on the subway and buses.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 19, 2022, 09:55:07 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 19, 2022, 08:39:25 AM
I think citywide transit can still have mandates.  This would apply to anything Federal.
are you sure about that

my understanding was that all mask mandates federal in nature were suspended
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2022, 10:00:27 AM
Some cities still have mandates on public transit.

We're flying out next month to Copenhagen, it'll be interesting to see what the rules are in Europe.

The cities keeping or dropping transit mask mandates - CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/19/us/cities-dropping-transit-mask-mandate/index.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 20, 2022, 02:31:31 PM
New cases remain low with a very slight uptick the last week

Deaths continue to decline
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2022, 07:34:15 AM
Appealing so as to protect their authority... 

(https://i.imgur.com/197cDBV.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on April 21, 2022, 07:57:50 AM
Masks now, masks tomorrow,  masks forever!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2022, 08:48:55 AM
Europe is dropping, and the feared US "invasion" has been largely not happening outside some isolated spots.  Good news I think.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 21, 2022, 10:53:01 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on April 11, 2022, 10:46:49 PM
This appears to be a big over reaction

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/philadelphia-pennsylvania-covid-cases.html

just gotta be in control

Phil Cty has a population of 1.6 Mil

In 10 days the daily case count went from 99 to 146 for aprox 50% increase

sorry but an increase of 47 daily cases over the last 10 days in a population of 1.6 Mil is not justification to have a mask mandate
well guess what

Philadelphia has announced they will cancel the recent reinstated mask mandate

as I said they had no real basis for a new mask mandate and I guess cooler heads have prevailed 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 28, 2022, 08:27:33 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/knwDb1Z.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/KAz8e63.png)

Cases are up but deaths and hospital usage are very low.

I read that this new Omicron variant is even more contagious than before, but less severe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 28, 2022, 08:36:58 AM
Are we done?  In effect?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 28, 2022, 08:42:21 AM
In effect, yes. The variants seem to be getting less severe, yet more contagious, like the common cold.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 28, 2022, 08:50:53 AM
While there is some chance of a bad variant cropping up, I think as a public health emergency "we're done" now, life goes on.  That means no interventions to try and contain it beyond vaccine availability.

I still on occasion see someone in the park wearing a mask, by themselves, far from anyone else, still masked.  I think it's a political statement.

Now, on an elevator, OK, I get it, some older residents here will have one on, their choice.  I try and direct my face away from them to the extent possible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 28, 2022, 08:59:23 AM
To some degree, I think most all of us are still using some caution.

I will no longer wear a mask, and it's not a political statement at all. I just don't believe they work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 28, 2022, 02:40:43 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 28, 2022, 08:59:23 AM
To some degree, I think most all of us are still using some caution.

I will no longer wear a mask, and it's not a political statement at all. I just don't believe they work.
There continues to be a slight increase in new cases but new deaths has remained very low

some have speculated this increase is the result of hospitals testing every new patient and creating a picture which doesnt really represent the true occurrence  rate

we shall see
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 28, 2022, 03:25:50 PM
Hospitals should test every admitted patient, I think, and they have been doing that for years now.  I'm OK with a mask inside a hospital.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 30, 2022, 12:38:50 PM
what percentage of kids 6 and under need a shot?

what percentage actually get seriously ill from the virus?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 01, 2022, 06:52:10 AM
I think the notion of shooting youngsters is to slow the spread, I'm not sure that is a good strategy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 01, 2022, 07:17:26 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 01, 2022, 06:52:10 AM
I think the notion of shooting youngsters is to slow the spread, I'm not sure that is a good strategy.
It's proven that the vaccines or prior infection does not prevent infection, so this does not make any sense to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 01, 2022, 07:27:42 AM
I think being vaccinated does inhibit future infections.  The data seem pretty clear on that point.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 01, 2022, 07:32:23 AM
Early on it might have, but it does not now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 02, 2022, 07:51:33 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/g0KZgLf.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on May 02, 2022, 09:53:52 AM
Anybody else noticing more impatience and rudeness in public these days? As the pandemic wanes, the worst I see of others is out on the roads. The stress of driving has gotten to the point where if I'm facing any amount of time on the I-15 or I-5, I end up paying as much attention to the rear view mirrors. So many drivers cutting lanes, flooring 80, and if finding myself in the way, I've never been flipped off or honked at more.

Googling "pandemic rude" to check if anybody else is noticing and sure enough many are:

Why Everyone Is So Rude Right Now - TIME (Oct 2021)
Why Is Everyone So Angry? We Investigated - NYT (Jan 2022)
Face it, you've become meaner because of the pandemic - Deseret (Aug 2021)
Adults Are Throwing Tantrums—in Restaurants, Planes and at Home. Blame the Pandemic - WSJ (Sept 2021)
Shoppers are getting ruder, and grocery workers suffer the mental health impact - Inquirer (Nov 2021)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 02, 2022, 09:58:50 AM
dont notice any difference here in Houston

drivers have always been rude and continue to be so
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 02, 2022, 10:45:09 AM
I've noticed no difference

Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota - good folks for the most part
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 02, 2022, 10:51:16 AM
two main reasons why I think this thing was so bad....

1) Americans are an obese, out of shape people. This virus tends to kick the ass of people who are obese and in poor health- that's half if not most of this damn country. CDC reported 78% of all hospitalizations and deaths were people suffering from obesity.

2) We just don't have enough hospital beds. America has around 2.7 hospital beds per 1,000 people. Japan has over 13. South Korea has over 12. These countries never really locked down- and they crushed this thing out of the park.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2022, 12:45:40 PM
Japan and South Korea can effectively isolate their country, same with NZ and Hawaii.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 02, 2022, 01:38:47 PM
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on May 02, 2022, 09:53:52 AM
Anybody else noticing more impatience and rudeness in public these days? As the pandemic wanes, the worst I see of others is out on the roads. The stress of driving has gotten to the point where if I'm facing any amount of time on the I-15 or I-5, I end up paying as much attention to the rear view mirrors. So many drivers cutting lanes, flooring 80, and if finding myself in the way, I've never been flipped off or honked at more.

Googling "pandemic rude" to check if anybody else is noticing and sure enough many are:

Why Everyone Is So Rude Right Now - TIME (Oct 2021)
Why Is Everyone So Angry? We Investigated - NYT (Jan 2022)
Face it, you've become meaner because of the pandemic - Deseret (Aug 2021)
Adults Are Throwing Tantrums—in Restaurants, Planes and at Home. Blame the Pandemic - WSJ (Sept 2021)
Shoppers are getting ruder, and grocery workers suffer the mental health impact - Inquirer (Nov 2021)

Have not noticed this here. I imagine there is a lot more pent up anger in the lockdown states??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 03, 2022, 06:49:04 AM
New immune-evading Omicron variants BA.4, BA.5 are likely in every U.S. state, an expert says. Here are the states where they’ve been identified so far (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/new-immune-evading-omicron-variants-ba-4-ba-5-are-likely-in-every-u-s-state-an-expert-says-here-are-the-states-where-they-ve-been-identified-so-far/ar-AAWQyOD?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=e87ae93b6db541218571965a7924ae9e)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2022, 08:40:34 AM
I'd say if anything folks here are more tolerant and less angry.  It would be a slight difference.  I am prone to speaking to folks if they glance my way.

I just made my monthly run to Walmart for some basics.  There were a lot of employees in the aisles stocking, mostly fairly focused on themselves, but most would speak back to me as I said GM or something.  They have a lot of stockers, more than customers at this hour.  I hit traffic coming back for a short bit, not surprisingly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 03, 2022, 08:51:37 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 03, 2022, 08:40:34 AM
I'd say if anything folks here are more tolerant and less angry.  It would be a slight difference.  I am prone to speaking to folks if they glance my way.

I just made my monthly run to Walmart for some basics.  There were a lot of employees in the aisles stocking, mostly fairly focused on themselves, but most would speak back to me as I said GM or something.  They have a lot of stockers, more than customers at this hour.  I hit traffic coming back for a short bit, not surprisingly.
really ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on May 05, 2022, 07:37:34 AM
Officially a MILLION deaths now:

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1521982612163952640


Quote from: CatsbyAZ on March 23, 2022, 04:04:57 PM
Nationally reported Covid deaths reach over 1 Million:

(https://i.imgur.com/NVOIlsc.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 05, 2022, 07:59:43 AM
Deaths per cases is not terrible here, especially considering that so many occurred before vaccine and treatment availability. Also, I believe the case numbers are low. 

Everyone has had this thing - one way or another.

Twice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 05, 2022, 08:29:29 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/Hq85XDe.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 05, 2022, 10:20:28 AM
I'm revising this post, as this was not from the FDA Pfizer dump. It's from a published paper in the UK on instructions for doctors.

Took a lot of searching, but I got it.

Hqrdtemplatecleanen v10.1 (publishing.service.gov.uk) (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1043778/Temporary_Authorisation_HCP_Information_BNT162_19_0_UK_Clean.pdf)


Misinformation is everywhere. I trusted the source, and should not have.


(https://i.imgur.com/WWsQnO9.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 05, 2022, 10:27:25 AM
COVID-19 Vaccines While Pregnant or Breastfeeding (cdc.gov) (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations/pregnancy.html)

This is the current recommendation by the CDC.  I'm sure that in the early phases, they lacked data on this topic.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 05, 2022, 11:16:55 AM
I know the current recommendations. This started almost a year ago with her.

I'm trying to verify everything and will report back.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 05, 2022, 11:41:51 AM
My post has been revised.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 05, 2022, 12:29:42 PM
Few will make much effort to recheck.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 07, 2022, 06:06:25 AM
Not this is an interesting read, for anyone interested.

Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee December 10, 2020 Meeting Briefing Document- FDA (https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 12, 2022, 07:22:42 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/5Girp0U.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/0NM7QSl.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 12, 2022, 10:00:25 AM
new cases are up but so far deaths continue to decrease

if this is a delayed wave we saw in Europe several weeks ago it has not really been anywhere as sever as they had
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on May 12, 2022, 10:28:33 AM
My wife had several work video calls yesterday, and every meeting had multiple people with COVID. And unlike previous strains, where one could have pretty good luck at keeping everyone else in your house from getting it, if one person has COIVD everyone in the house will in short order.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 12, 2022, 11:18:56 PM
a co-worker in Wisconsin had it last week as did his entire family
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 13, 2022, 05:00:43 PM
Travelling next weekend to see the grandbaby. Got exposed at a party last weekend, so I went and got a PCR today.

I've got a scratchy throat and a little cough. I'm guessing I have it again. We'll know tomorrow probably.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2022, 05:03:21 PM
We're leaving Sunday for Europe, long flights, airports, boats, cities....

I have not been sick at all since Jan. 2020.  Knock on skull.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 13, 2022, 05:06:31 PM
Been since March 2020 since I've been sick. I'm really not sick, but I feel something is off and my body is responding. I can feel it.

The vaccine wears off, as we know. I've not had one since October.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2022, 06:39:25 PM
Yeah, we had one Oct 1, and just got the fourth given we're traveling.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2022, 11:20:09 AM
Well, I have Covid. Again.

Now I need to figure out what I'm going to do about travel next week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2022, 11:27:40 AM
Bummer.  We're supposed to get tested, but within 3 days of departure, and we'll be in Copenhagen, or on the flight during that period.  They have an airport test facility, I went to reserve a time for us and they want 510 Euros, per test.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2022, 11:44:38 AM
Double check. It's normally 3 days - not 72 hours. 

Meaning you can go up to 3.49 days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 14, 2022, 12:16:54 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2022, 11:20:09 AM
Well, I have Covid. Again.

Now I need to figure out what I'm going to do about travel next week.
how many times does that make

youre a regular typhoid Mary
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2022, 12:18:34 PM
4 times now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 14, 2022, 12:24:25 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2022, 12:18:34 PM
4 times now.
wow you should market youre blood

talk about antibodies
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2022, 02:29:33 PM
I feel great now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 14, 2022, 09:16:37 PM
Ill just hang out hee
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on May 15, 2022, 01:33:38 AM
Dad has leukemia. On April 23 I flew to Tucson to visit. The a.m. before my flight, I got my 2nd booster in the left shoulder. It seems to have triggered my arthritis in my left shoulder. That reaction seems quite a bit better by May 14, but that little sacrifice to help protect 89-year old dad, was worth it. He was doing great.

Our #s in Iowa are now increasing, which surprises me. I am a board member of a healthcare provider and residential care facility. Staff are back to wearing masks due to a new surge of cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on May 15, 2022, 01:40:26 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2022, 12:18:34 PM
4 times now.
I thought I was good at getting it. Just 2x here. I avoid exposures and wear masks in public indoors quite often. You are better than me. It's fun to disparage our vulnerabilities, but I have been acquainted with 12-people who died from it. Covid-19 is a serious problem.
That said, good luck.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 15, 2022, 05:41:38 AM
Zero symptoms here. 

Probably going for a walk when the sun comes up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 15, 2022, 08:15:51 AM
The wife has symptoms today. She never gets sick so this is something. Cough and stuffed up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 15, 2022, 01:02:17 PM
Mrs. 847 came back positive too. Dammit. Of course this was inevitable. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 17, 2022, 09:23:37 AM
Still positive. Trip to Chicago/Wisconsin is cancelled.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 17, 2022, 09:46:18 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 17, 2022, 09:23:37 AM
Still positive. Trip to Chicago/Wisconsin is cancelled.
Cocktails on the boat instead.  You hate to see it😊
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 18, 2022, 07:57:52 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2022, 12:18:34 PM
4 times now.
are you secretly Stephen Colbert?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 18, 2022, 08:16:59 AM
Sure, why not?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 18, 2022, 08:42:22 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 18, 2022, 08:16:59 AM
Sure, why not?
I mean dude has gotten COVID twice in the last few weeks alone. And he's been shot up 4 times. It all adds up now....
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on May 18, 2022, 10:24:35 AM
Don't be ignorant you're well aware he's Pete Fuitak
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on May 18, 2022, 10:29:11 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 18, 2022, 10:24:35 AM
Don't be ignorant you're well aware he's Pete Fuitak
and this whole time I thought he was secretly Barry Alvarez
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 18, 2022, 01:09:28 PM
So, I did two tests today, at lunchtime.

I used the free one from CDC, made in China, of course. Tested negative.

I used the not free one from Abbott, made in the USA, of course. Tested positive.

Moral:

Had I used the one from China and only China, I'd probably be out right now getting someone sick.

Makes you wonder if this is negative on purpose, to keep the spread going in the USA.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 18, 2022, 02:12:56 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 18, 2022, 01:09:28 PM
So, I did two tests today, at lunchtime.

I used the free one from CDC, made in China, of course. Tested negative.

I used the not free one from Abbott, made in the USA, of course. Tested positive.

Moral:

Had I used the one from China and only China, I'd probably be out right now getting someone sick.

Makes you wonder if this is negative on purpose, to keep the spread going in the USA.
A lot of it has to do with the strain of covid you have and which one the test is testing for

Im pretty sure the older China kind does not recognize corona
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 18, 2022, 02:28:39 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 18, 2022, 02:12:56 PM
A lot of it has to do with the strain of covid you have and which one the test is testing for

Im pretty sure the older China kind does not recognize corona
You mean Omicron?

If not, then why bother giving them away? It's stupid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 18, 2022, 03:33:46 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 18, 2022, 02:28:39 PM
You mean Omicron?

If not, then why bother giving them away? It's stupid.
Yep I meant Omicron

This thing moved so fast the Gov just has not gotten the word out about testing

The good news is Omicron B or 2 is milder then Omicron A

So just sit back for 3 to 5 days and go on with your life
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 18, 2022, 03:55:37 PM
Not pleased about being trapped though.

Except COVID OMG COVID.

It's the cold now. Deal with it because we have no choice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 19, 2022, 11:46:32 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 18, 2022, 02:28:39 PM
You mean Omicron?

If not, then why bother giving them away? It's stupid.
give them away so that folks use them up and they can order another large batch - gotta keep the $$$ turning
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 21, 2022, 08:49:20 AM
Negative result this morning. I'm a free man.

My wife is not free yet though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 21, 2022, 09:45:14 AM
Omicron showing it's contagiousness in a big way.

(https://i.imgur.com/8xOdSy9.png)

Still, deaths are way down.

(https://i.imgur.com/3xLZJh0.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 21, 2022, 09:46:49 AM
USA data:

(https://i.imgur.com/BPGIwlI.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 21, 2022, 09:48:53 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 21, 2022, 09:46:49 AM
USA data:

(https://i.imgur.com/BPGIwlI.png)
it would be interesting to see those stats for omicron only
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 21, 2022, 09:48:53 AM
Florida hospital use:

(https://i.imgur.com/IHhbjoA.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 21, 2022, 09:49:48 AM
US hospital use:

(https://i.imgur.com/eIIsu8q.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 21, 2022, 09:53:34 AM
2.4 Million active cases in the USA right now.

24K in the hospital, 4K of those ICU.

That's 0.100% hospitalization, and 0.017% ICU.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 24, 2022, 12:51:26 PM
My wife STILL has it. I told her to wait until Thursday to burn another test kit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 27, 2022, 07:57:50 AM
She is finally negative. Lost her taste though. Hopefully she gets that back.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 27, 2022, 10:05:32 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 27, 2022, 07:57:50 AM
She is finally negative. Lost her taste though. Hopefully she gets that back.
sounds like the original covid strain

Glad she is negative now
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 27, 2022, 10:15:25 AM
These latest variants have some of the Delta stuff in them, based on what I've read. I'm thinking that's what we just got done with here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 28, 2022, 09:12:58 AM
So, about this 4th booster...

CDawg's wife got it, I presume, since he did, and she got Covid about a minute later, cancelling a cruise.

Obviously we had it in our house, but did not have that 4th shot. Mild cases for sure.

Supposedly an Omicron booster is coming. Will it be obsolete for the new variants? Anyone take a good look at this lately? I'm curious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on May 28, 2022, 03:21:36 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 28, 2022, 09:12:58 AM
So, about this 4th booster...

CDawg's wife got it, I presume, since he did, and she got Covid about a minute later, cancelling a cruise.

Obviously we had it in our house, but did not have that 4th shot. Mild cases for sure.

Supposedly an Omicron booster is coming. Will it be obsolete for the new variants? Anyone take a good look at this lately? I'm curious.
We have twins nephews coming this summer, so my parents have been investigating it quite a bit.  They were told the high end 2nd booster protection is 6 weeks, and that's in <5% of people, and she advised within 4 weeks of when they wanted to visit their new grandchildren.

"Apparently" the Omicron specific booster is also designed based the ways the virus is mutating, so I don't think it's obsolete against future variants, but I have seen nothing about whether it's good for any more than a month.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 29, 2022, 07:38:37 AM
Quote from: ELA on May 28, 2022, 03:21:36 PM
We have twins nephews coming this summer, so my parents have been investigating it quite a bit.  They were told the high end 2nd booster protection is 6 weeks, and that's in <5% of people, and she advised within 4 weeks of when they wanted to visit their new grandchildren.

"Apparently" the Omicron specific booster is also designed based the ways the virus is mutating, so I don't think it's obsolete against future variants, but I have seen nothing about whether it's good for any more than a month.

Second booster. 10 days later, isolated, with symptoms. 


CA Gov Gavin Newsom tests positive for COVID-19, enters isolation | The Sacramento Bee (sacbee.com) (https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article261909375.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 29, 2022, 08:14:15 AM
the shots and boosters are not much help preventing the virus

some question how much they do to lessen the severity of the symptoms 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on May 29, 2022, 09:41:29 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 29, 2022, 08:14:15 AM
the shots and boosters are not much help preventing the virus

some question how much they do to lessen the severity of the symptoms
Right, which if you are getting it to protect newborns you plan to be around, doesn't really help
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 29, 2022, 11:59:55 AM
Well, I say no more shots until it's proven something actually works. There is no vaccine for a cold, right?

For most, this is a cold, and not a bad one. 

(Anecdotal: Yes, my first bout sucked for a few days, but I've had worse colds and flus. The next 3 were simply mild colds.)

If you are compromised, be diligent in your actions. 

If not, live your life.

Society needs to take another look at how we are handling this. People used to travel and socialize and work and go to school all the time with colds. Why should this be different now? We have treatment technology. 

This should be no different. It's a coronavirus. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2022, 06:26:14 AM
I decided to get the second booster (shot 4) before the cruise as a precaution May 1.  That provided time to "kick in".  We think she contracted it at the symphony May 14, could have been at a restaurant, but we didn't dine out often, we were eating the food we had.  We left for the cruise May 15, returning yesterday.

She had started sneezing more than usual and said she had fever off and on, but hardly any real symptoms, we walked all over the place, but she doesn't complain about such things.  It was a real surprise when she tested positive May 17 and 18.  I never tested positive, never had any symptoms, so maybe it protected me.  I'd guess it eased her symptoms.  This isn't always an on or off kind of binary thing except for the transport issues.

The funny thing is Lufthansa was VERY strict about mask wearing on the flight, the attendants were chastising folks left and right, who knew the Germans could be that way?

Then you get into the airport at Frankfort and Copenhagen and masks were rare events, really only Asians wearing them.  The same was true in Denmark and Sweden.  Then Air Canada coming back, masks required, including at the Toronto airport (which was a true mess).

Then ATL and no masks of course, except some Asians.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2022, 07:24:12 AM
So, Copenhagen and Malmo were 100% open.  The only masks being worn were at the test centers and by a few Asians walking about, otherwise no masks, no isolation, no testing required, no vaccine program, no nothing really.  Folks were going on with it.  One Canadian at the airport told me "They don't have Trudeau", he wasn't being kind.

The Danes struck me as being a pretty happy lot, they are of course "liberal" by our metrics, and pay heavy taxes.  The tax in Sweden on any alcohol is 25%.  And of course the price you see is the price you pay, nothing with taxes or tips added.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2022, 06:37:50 AM
Denmark COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer (worldometers.info) (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/)

Denmark had a surge last winter, but today is very low in reported cases.

The NYT morning feed had an unusual take on masks (I read their feed for free, it can be interesting):


The evidence suggests that broad mask mandates have not done much to reduce Covid caseloads over the past two years. Today, mask rules may do even less than in the past, given the contagiousness of current versions of the virus. And successful public health campaigns rarely involve a divisive fight over a measure unlikely to make a big difference.

The evidence
From the beginning of the pandemic, there has been a paradox involving masks. As Dr. Shira Doron, an epidemiologist at Tufts Medical Center, puts it (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/rCaLYgKt9z2hsD0SPinFfQ~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRkeHFCP0TQaHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0dGVyLmNvbS9TaGlyYURvcm9uTUQvc3RhdHVzLzE1MjY1Mzc5MzM5Mzg5OTkyOTc_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIyMDUzMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD02Mjc4NiZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTE1MzM2ODkxMCZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTkzNzg1JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0QgpihkLslWJ8hW4LUhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~), “It is simultaneously true that masks work and mask mandates do not work.”
To start with the first half of the paradox: Masks reduce the spread of the Covid virus by preventing virus particles from traveling from one person’s nose or mouth into the air and infecting another person. Laboratory studies have repeatedly demonstrated the effect.
Given this, you would think that communities where mask-wearing has been more common would have had many fewer Covid infections. But that hasn’t been the case.
In U.S. cities where mask use has been more common, Covid has spread at a similar rate (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/-h_URjJW0P5KgY8CjJ5a8Q~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRkeHFCP0TnaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8wMy8wOS9icmllZmluZy9jb3ZpZC1wcmVjYXV0aW9ucy1yZWQtYmx1ZS1zdGF0ZXMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjIwNTMxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTYyNzg2Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9MTUzMzY4OTEwJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9OTM3ODUmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPThlNWQyYTJiNWU0OGE2OTY1NjE5MmNjM2FmMGE5MDBjVwNueXRCCmKGQuyVYnyFbgtSEWpjZG9vbTlAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) as in mask-resistant cities. Mask mandates in schools also seem to have done little (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/RhRaLDNdRB1EgdaT1fM3RA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRkeHFCP0TuaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cudGhlYXRsYW50aWMuY29tL2lkZWFzL2FyY2hpdmUvMjAyMi8wMS9raWRzLW1hc2tzLXNjaG9vbHMtd2Vhay1zY2llbmNlLzYyMTEzMy8_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIyMDUzMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD02Mjc4NiZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTE1MzM2ODkxMCZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTkzNzg1JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0QgpihkLslWJ8hW4LUhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) to reduce the spread. Hong Kong, despite almost universal mask-wearing (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/PzS-93_BOX9f2AyL8_hcMg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRkeHFCP0TKaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubmNiaS5ubG0ubmloLmdvdi9wbWMvYXJ0aWNsZXMvUE1DODA2MTE4My8_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIyMDUzMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD02Mjc4NiZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTE1MzM2ODkxMCZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTkzNzg1JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0QgpihkLslWJ8hW4LUhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~), recently endured one of the world’s worst Covid outbreaks.
Advocates of mandates sometimes argue that they do have a big effect even if it is not evident in populationwide data, because of how many other factors are at play. But this argument seems unpersuasive.
After all, the effect of vaccines on severe illness is blazingly obvious in the geographic data: Places with higher vaccination rates have suffered many fewer Covid deaths (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/IGtObSEZgcahjHb6G2f_Dw~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRkeHFCP0ToaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8wMi8xOC9icmllZmluZy9yZWQtY292aWQtcGFydGlzYW4tZGVhdGhzLXZhY2NpbmVzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIyMDUzMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD02Mjc4NiZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTE1MzM2ODkxMCZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTkzNzg1JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0QgpihkLslWJ8hW4LUhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~). The patterns are clear even though the world is a messy place, with many factors other than vaccines influencing Covid death rates.
Yet when you look at the data on mask-wearing — both before vaccines were available and after, as well as both in the U.S. and abroad — you struggle to see any patterns.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2022, 06:38:16 AM

The idea that masks work better than mask mandates seems to defy logic. It inverts a notion connected to Aristotle’s writings: that the whole should be greater than the sum of the parts, not less.

The main explanation seems to be that the exceptions often end up mattering more than the rule. The Covid virus is so contagious that it can spread during brief times when people take off their masks, even when a mandate is in place.
Airplane passengers remove their masks (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/I--6VGq7b6rktOf0AKVO-Q~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRkeHFCP0TfaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8wNC8yMi9icmllZmluZy9tYXNrLW1hbmRhdGUtY292aWQtc3ByZWFkLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIyMDUzMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD02Mjc4NiZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTE1MzM2ODkxMCZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTkzNzg1JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0QgpihkLslWJ8hW4LUhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) to have a drink. Restaurant patrons go maskless as soon as they walk in the door. Schoolchildren let their masks slide down their faces. So do adults: Research by the University of Minnesota suggests that between 25 percent and 30 percent of Americans consistently wear their masks below their nose.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2022, 06:39:04 AM

The country is probably never going to come to a consensus on masks. They have become yet another source of political polarization. Democrats are more likely to wear masks than Republicans, and Democrats who identify as “very liberal” are more likely to support mandates (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/3axq5ddcAnccaAEeyroaUg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRkeHFCP0TgaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8wMy8xOC9icmllZmluZy9jb3ZpZC1yaXNrcy1wb2xsLWFtZXJpY2Fucy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMjA1MzEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NjI3ODYmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xNTMzNjg5MTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD05Mzc4NSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9OGU1ZDJhMmI1ZTQ4YTY5NjU2MTkyY2MzYWYwYTkwMGNXA255dEIKYoZC7JVifIVuC1IRamNkb29tOUBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~).

Fortunately, the scientific evidence points to a reasonable compromise. Because masks work and mandates often don’t, people can make their own decisions. Anybody who wants to wear a snug, high-quality mask can do so and will be less likely to contract Covid.
If anything, that approach — one-way masking — is consistent with what hospitals have long done, as Doron, the Tufts epidemiologist, points out. Patients, including those sick with infectious diseases, typically have not worn masks, but doctors and nurses have. “One-way masking is how we have always used them,” she wrote.
The same system can work for Covid outside of hospitals. Wachter, for example, believes that the time for mandates has passed but still wears one at the supermarket, in classrooms, on airplanes and elsewhere. Different people can reasonably make different choices.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 31, 2022, 09:32:29 AM
A Guide to the Different Omicron Subvariants - Scientific American (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-guide-to-the-different-omicron-subvariants/?fbclid=IwAR0EfxhBInDv3ErpAnZ-__7dNmssQT3QPI4SxeClpZR-Huc_vrreEXRDjLM)

Pretty much what we know around here, subvariants not as "toxic" are spreading, and it could be goodish news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 31, 2022, 09:40:14 AM
Good article. Thanks for sharing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 31, 2022, 09:44:49 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 31, 2022, 09:32:29 AM
A Guide to the Different Omicron Subvariants - Scientific American (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-guide-to-the-different-omicron-subvariants/?fbclid=IwAR0EfxhBInDv3ErpAnZ-__7dNmssQT3QPI4SxeClpZR-Huc_vrreEXRDjLM)

Pretty much what we know around here, subvariants not as "toxic" are spreading, and it could be goodish news.
Its very good news and what has ended the pandemic
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 31, 2022, 07:36:30 PM
Top Gun Maverick is playing to packed theaters across America

I love seeing this
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 31, 2022, 07:51:53 PM
https://www.foxnews.com/media/cnn-jake-tapper-rebekah-jones


As we all knew they would- the lies continue be exposed.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 31, 2022, 07:59:50 PM
the media lying isn't newsworthy to me

I assume it happens every day 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on May 31, 2022, 08:04:01 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 31, 2022, 07:59:50 PM
the media lying isn't newsworthy to me

I assume it happens every day
That wasn’t the media.  They were just complicit spreading it and pretending it to be true/ despite all the evidence to the contrary.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 31, 2022, 08:06:55 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 31, 2022, 06:39:04 AM

Fortunately, the scientific evidence points to a reasonable compromise. Because masks work and mandates often don’t, people can make their own decisions. Anybody who wants to wear a snug, high-quality mask can do so and will be less likely to contract Covid.


I'd like to know how much less likely
Understanding that the variables are endless
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 01, 2022, 05:14:34 AM
My overall take on masks is they might reduce your chances of getting it by 5-10% is you wear it around a contagious person, if they wore one it probably goes up to 20% or so.  The original vaccine data were over 90%, so this isn't all that impressive of course until you run exponents.

At this point, I'm not wearing a mask unless forced, or knew I was close to a contagious source for a few minutes.  

Obviously I was very close to my wife for days after she was positive and didn't get it, I wasn't wearing a mask.  My GUESS is the booster worked for me and not for her.

One of her symptoms was sneezing more than usual, which obviously is a spreading event.  I didn't really notice it.  She said she had some fever off and on, but we were walking 4-5-6 miles a day during the period, she wasn't complaining.  Her case obviously was on the mild side, which is great, and she likely has more resistance now than I do to the new types.  I MIGHT have sparked my immune system to the new type, I don't know.

We've discussed many times the importance of hospitalizations in all the numbers, we're way down now, and I expect to stay that way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on June 01, 2022, 06:12:25 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 31, 2022, 07:36:30 PM
Top Gun Maverick is playing to packed theaters across America

I love seeing this
That movie was excellent. Tom Cruise is the GOAT movie star. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 04, 2022, 09:15:47 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/J7f4Zvf.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/3ITvtqY.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 04, 2022, 09:19:22 AM
Florida hospital usage

(https://i.imgur.com/oLlKuJ5.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 05, 2022, 10:54:27 AM
CHICAGO — Health officials have confirmed a probable case of monkeypox in Illinois.

The Chicago Department of Public Health and Illinois Department of Public Health announced Thursday a single presumptive monkeypox case in an adult male Chicago resident who recently traveled to Europe.

Officials said the patient is doing well and poses little risk to the general public.

Initial testing was completed Wednesday, and confirmatory testing for is pending at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

CDPH and IDPH are working closely with the CDC and the patient’s health care providers to identify people the patient may have been in contact with while they were infectious.

Monkeypox is a rare, but potentially serious viral illness. It typically begins with flu-like symptoms and swelling of the lymph nodes, and progresses to a rash on the face and body. Most infections last 2 to 4 weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 05, 2022, 10:55:20 AM
RENO, Nev. (KOLO) -As COVID-19 cases increase, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has raised Washoe County’s level to medium.

The Washoe County Health District urges people to take steps to limit COVID-19 risk. This includes:

Stay up to date with COVID-19 vaccines.
Follow CDC recommendations for isolation and quarantine, including getting tested if you are exposed to COVID-19 or have symptoms of COVID-19.
Wear a mask on public transportation. Consider wearing a mask at any time as an additional precaution to protect yourself and others. If you are at high risk for severe illness, consider wearing a mask indoors in public and taking additional precautions.
Maintain improved ventilation throughout indoor spaces when possible.
If you have household or social contact with someone at high risk for severe disease, consider self-testing to detect infection before contact and consider wearing a mask when indoors with them.
Starting Monday, there will be changes to drive-through testing at the Reno-Sparks Livestock Events Center The testing entrance will be moved to 9th Street as there will no longer be access from the Wells Avenue or Sutro Street entrances due to the Reno Rodeo.  There will be signs to guide people to the correct entrance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 05, 2022, 11:02:52 AM
so Reno, NV is a hot spot with 19 folks getting a cold

this thing is over

live your life
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 10, 2022, 10:00:16 AM
LAX had periodic announcements over the PA that face masks were required in the terminal.  I'd est. 40% were wearing them, more were not.  Nobody seemed to care, at all.  SD was wide open, very few masked bandits.

When we arrived, I had set my backpack on top of some carts nearby to put up my headphones, waiting on luggage.  Some dude came over and claimed they were his carts, and I said "Yes, OK, I just need them a second." and he snarled at me he didn't want me touching his carts.  He had a mask on.  I pretty much ignored him as he stood there fuming, then I finished up and removed my backpack.  (Our luggage came on another location, the wife got an email but our entire flight was standing at the wrong carousel but her, as we left they announced the right one.)

Every time I fly somewhere I marvel at how out of it some folks are in life.  They probably marvel at me at times.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 10, 2022, 01:23:08 PM
I find it amusing when I look at restaurants in California (I was actually looking to get a couple that I've been to so I could recommend to CDawg) and the most prominent thing on the home page is "we are open".
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 10, 2022, 03:01:53 PM
We went to lunch today at Killer Burger, had two burgers and onion rings and a pitcher of beer for $30, would have been $60 easy in SD.

Their "house beer" is $10 a pitcher, it's not great beer of course.  420 was $12, which is better than anything else around here.  Killer Burger is pretty good overall, honest burgers, nothing fancy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 18, 2022, 12:56:38 PM
Starting to level off??

(https://i.imgur.com/tb64dNr.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/6ER2f0R.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 18, 2022, 01:57:31 PM
We strolled through the farmer's market here today, one booth was doing vaccinations.  They were not busy and my wife was lagging so I chatted with the lady a bit.  She said nearly everyone she knew was getting Omicron, they were vaxxed, and it was mild.  We all discussed WAY back how hospitalizations was a key metric.  This variant seems more like a mild cold than anything else, mostly.  We're done.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 18, 2022, 04:21:42 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 18, 2022, 01:57:31 PM
We strolled through the farmer's market here today, one booth was doing vaccinations.  They were not busy and my wife was lagging so I chatted with the lady a bit.  She said nearly everyone she knew was getting Omicron, they were vaxxed, and it was mild.  We all discussed WAY back how hospitalizations was a key metric.  This variant seems more like a mild cold than anything else, mostly.  We're done.
we were done several months ago but someone needs to tell our government that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 28, 2022, 12:01:38 AM
Well if I hadn't had it before, which is possible that I did back last December, I definitely got it and tested positive a couple weeks ago.  It was inevitable, even though I work from home and rarely encounter people for the length of time/distance it takes to become infected, my wife is a physical therapist and spends 1+hours per visit in close proximity to her patients.  So when a patient of hers told her a couple of days after a visit, that she had started feeling unwell shortly after their appointment and then later tested positive, it was inevitable.

Within a couple of days my wife started having mild symptoms, and then a couple of days later so did I.  We both tested positive on at-home tests within 2 days of first symptoms.

It was very mild, basically like seasonal allergies/cedar fever.  Except it didn't last as long because for me, cedar fever usually lasts a couple of weeks and this was only 3-4 days.  Mild body aches, a little bit of a headache, slight cough, and then at the end, a sore throat for a couple of days.

Neither of our kids got it, but one of them was away at summer camp for most of that week, and the other is a teenager who rarely emerges from her cave-like room. 

Anyway, glad to have had it and checked that box. Also glad to see the US has lifted the international air travel reentry testing requirement, since we're flying down to Playa del Carmen in a few weeks.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 28, 2022, 12:03:52 AM
glad to hear it was mild
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 28, 2022, 05:48:28 AM
Good to hear it was mild for both of you!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 28, 2022, 08:26:29 AM
Cheers mate!

Be sure to report back on the travel thread too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 28, 2022, 08:56:22 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 28, 2022, 08:26:29 AM
Cheers mate!

Be sure to report back on the travel thread too.
Yup, really looking forward to this trip. I haven't traveled by air since 2019.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 28, 2022, 09:03:36 AM
Air travel is increasinly a bit painful.  Airports are very crowded, as are planes.  The Delta lounge has been very crowded, they put a three hour limit on it now.

Even the TSA security lines are packed now in ATL.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 28, 2022, 09:07:46 AM
Austin airport was a complete disaster long before the pandemic, so I'm used to it.  I hear it's still quite terrible, but by a %increase in awfulness basis, not nearly as bad as other airports around the country.

Guess we'll see in a few weeks.  We're also talking about wedging in a New Orleans trip next weekend, so I might find out even earlier.

At least I'm not worried about catching COVID in the airport or on a plane, anymore...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 28, 2022, 09:15:00 AM
ATL is built to handle a lot of people obviously, but not this many.  We manage, but it's not like it was prepan.

Headed to SFO in August and then Paris in September.  The trip to France includes a bus trip for a week to Perigord Noir and includes the Lascaux cave paintings.  It looks interesting overall, pre fix and all inc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 28, 2022, 09:21:11 AM
Quote from: utee94 on June 28, 2022, 09:07:46 AM
Austin airport was a complete disaster long before the pandemic, so I'm used to it.  I hear it's still quite terrible, but by a %increase in awfulness basis, not nearly as bad as other airports around the country.

Guess we'll see in a few weeks.  We're also talking about wedging in a New Orleans trip next weekend, so I might find out even earlier.

At least I'm not worried about catching COVID in the airport or on a plane, anymore...
You still might, but it's just a cold now. We are flying to ORD on Thursday, for a month stay in Kenosha WI.

I heard RSW (Fort Myers) is a zoo now too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on June 28, 2022, 09:42:45 AM
I was just going to dig this thread up. I got a positive COVID test for my birthday, last Friday, after my wife tested positive Wednesday. My wife and I both suspect we got it in New York last weekend.

Fortunately, the most noteworthy effects have been A) dry coughs, with the occasional intense coughing fit, B) being unmotivated to do anything, and C) klutziness. My cough has been similar to the stage of a cold where you switch from dry coughing to hacking up crud at every cough. My wife said that her illness felt the exact same as the one she had right after our honeymoon in January 2020. Thank God for vaccines.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 28, 2022, 10:31:49 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on June 28, 2022, 09:42:45 AM
I was just going to dig this thread up. I got a positive COVID test for my birthday, last Friday, after my wife tested positive Wednesday. My wife and I both suspect we got it in New York last weekend.

Fortunately, the most noteworthy effects have been A) dry coughs, with the occasional intense coughing fit, B) being unmotivated to do anything, and C) klutziness. My cough has been similar to the stage of a cold where you switch from dry coughing to hacking up crud at every cough. My wife said that her illness felt the exact same as the one she had right after our honeymoon in January 2020. Thank God for vaccines.
Now I can just tell the wife I must have covid
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 28, 2022, 10:37:51 AM
Can we all get Covid for like 10 years then?

Anyway, the vaccines kept people out of the hospital, which was great. Operation Warp Speed worked, mostly, and to make something to help in that short of time was pretty damn impressive.

I still harken back to the claims that you wouldn't get Covid if you took the shots, and you wouldn't have to wear a mask if you took the shot, and you can't get Covid once you've had it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 28, 2022, 11:16:25 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 28, 2022, 09:21:11 AM
You still might, but it's just a cold now. 
Oh I didn't say I don't think I'll ever get it again.  I just said I'm not worried about getting it again. 

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 28, 2022, 10:37:51 AM
Can we all get Covid for like 10 years then?

Anyway, the vaccines kept people out of the hospital, which was great. Operation Warp Speed worked, mostly, and to make something to help in that short of time was pretty damn impressive.

I still harken back to the claims that you wouldn't get Covid if you took the shots, and you wouldn't have to wear a mask if you took the shot, and you can't get Covid once you've had it.

Yeah that was clearly a lot of political mumbo jumbo.  But in reality, it hasn't affected my life much at all, since about May of 2020.  Most everything here returned pretty close to normal at that point.  And it was really great going to restaurants and bars without having to fight the crowds, since all of the Lockdown Larrys and Mask-up Marvins were still staying at home.  I actually kind of miss those days...

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 28, 2022, 11:20:32 AM
Word.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 02, 2022, 09:02:54 AM
NICE, France (AP) — Tourism is booming again in France — and so is COVID-19. French officials have “invited” or “recommended” people to go back to using face masks but stopped short of renewing restrictions that would scare visitors away or revive antigovernment protests.

From Paris commuters to tourists on the French Riviera, many people seem to welcome the government’s light touch, while some worry that required prevention measures may be needed.

Virus-related hospitalizations rose quickly in France over the past two weeks, with nearly 1,000 patients with COVID-19 hospitalized per day, according to government data. Infections are also rising across Europe and the United States, but France has an exceptionally high proportion of people in the hospital, according to Our World in Data estimates.

French government spokesperson Olivia Gregoire has said there are no plans to reintroduce national regulations that limit or set conditions for gathering indoors and other activities.

“The French people are sick of restrictions,” she said Wednesday on channel BFMTV. “We are confident that people will behave responsibly.”

France’s parliamentary elections last month resulted in President Emmanuel Macron losing his majority in the national legislature, while parties on the far right and the far left that had protested his government’s earlier vaccine and mask rules gained seats.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 02, 2022, 09:16:38 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/UkQcy66.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/NNPJTCe.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 10, 2022, 01:05:41 PM
So this morning I wake up with a scratchy throat and runny nose

I also feel somewhat tired

do I have covid?  who knows but if this is what all the fuss is about its no big deal

hopefully this will pass and not get worse
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 10, 2022, 01:15:10 PM
hopefully

no sense in having a big deal
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 10, 2022, 01:22:51 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 10, 2022, 01:15:10 PM
hopefully

no sense in having a big deal
unless youre POTUS
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2022, 01:26:08 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 10, 2022, 01:05:41 PM
So this morning I wake up with a scratchy throat and runny nose

I also feel somewhat tired

do I have covid?  who knows but if this is what all the fuss is about its no big deal

hopefully this will pass and not get worse
Yes, you have a cold.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on July 10, 2022, 01:35:09 PM
I've had it this week. I'm still testing positive on day 6, But I feel fine now. But for about 36 hours, I have never felt sicker in my entire life. I talked to three neighbors who also had it recently, they said the exact same thing. 36 hours of pure hell and then a quick recovery.

The cough was the easiest part. The fever, the chills, and the body aches mixed with the fatigue, except that I couldn't fall asleep because every inch of my skin hurts so much, was the worst part
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2022, 01:36:38 PM
First time?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on July 10, 2022, 01:40:01 PM
I don't believe so.  For our next door neighbor definitely not.  My cousin has got it three times and said each time felt completely different
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 10, 2022, 01:40:59 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 10, 2022, 01:22:51 PM
unless youre POTUS
everything is bigger in Texas
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2022, 02:01:56 PM
Quote from: ELA on July 10, 2022, 01:40:01 PM
I don't believe so.  For our next door neighbor definitely not.  My cousin has got it three times and said each time felt completely different
My first time was as you described, but I have had worse in my lifetime. Pneumonia comes to mind, and a couple of bad flu infections.

The second time was Delta, and was extremely mild. I would have not known if not for travel. Third time was a piece of cake, and only tested for travel. Fourth time I was tired.

I do miss travel during Covid. It was nice to have a whole row to yourself on the planes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 10, 2022, 02:10:04 PM
I dont have any of the bad symptoms mentioned earlier so I just dont know

I certainly dont feel the sickest Ive ever felt in my life

That would be back in my youth and involve a bottle of white port wine

but the thing is whatever I have is not normal so I thought Id mention it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on July 10, 2022, 02:12:20 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 10, 2022, 02:01:56 PM
My first time was as you described, but I have had worse in my lifetime. Pneumonia comes to mind, and a couple of bad flu infections.

The second time was Delta, and was extremely mild. I would have not known if not for travel. Third time was a piece of cake, and only tested for travel. Fourth time I was tired.

I do miss travel during Covid. It was nice to have a whole row to yourself on the planes.
Yeah the previous time was due to travel, and the home test came back faint, and the PCR test I got the next day was negative. I thought it was just bad allergies, which is why I didn't even test, and I'm guessing my test caught it right on the back end. That was not the case the second time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on July 10, 2022, 02:13:43 PM
I have three kids and my wife is a teacher, so the other four members of my household go off each day to three separate school buildings. The kids activities have been full blast massless for over a year now, so I'd actually be shocked if this was just my second infection.

In the past year we've been to the Smokies. We've been to the beach, we've been to Florida. Unless you live in a bubble you're going to get it.  And even then you might
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 12, 2022, 07:03:38 AM
Everyone STAY HOME!!!


Why the New BA.5 COVID Variant Is the Most Dangerous One Yet (thedailybeast.com) (https://www.thedailybeast.com/why-the-new-ba5-covid-variant-is-the-most-dangerous-one-yet)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 12, 2022, 07:12:52 AM
I still have not had it, that I know of.  My wife had it in Denmark except she wouldn't have known she was sick had she not been tested.  Folks we know who had it recently had very mild symptoms.

I noticed a handful of folks out and about on our trip wearing masks, often very distant from anyone else.  One guy had a full beard and his mask was about an inch from his face, I sort of chuckled, and he was well away from anyone.

One shop requested folks wear masks, one out of 100 or so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 12, 2022, 07:21:35 AM
Quite a few people up "here" are still masking. More so in Illinois than Wisconsin though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 12, 2022, 07:48:36 AM
Folks wearing masks were pretty rare on our trip, but some few were, fairly often off by themselves.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 12, 2022, 09:22:41 AM
I assume the folks still wearing masks, especially away from others, have secretly wanted to wear masks long before the COVID

this just gives them the excuse to not look especially paranoid
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 12, 2022, 09:28:59 AM
Is BA.5 the ‘Reinfection Wave’? - The Atlantic (https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/07/ba5-omicron-variant-covid-surge-immunity-reinfection/670485/?utm_source=feed)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 12, 2022, 11:22:15 AM
Maybe one in 20-30 people were wearing masks in New Orleans.  

But it might not be due to COVID, which is probably one of the least scary things you can catch in New Orleans.  Speaking of which, I hear we missed the "Swingers' Convention" by a few days.  More's the pity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on July 12, 2022, 12:31:52 PM
To be fair, until COVID it was illegal to wear a face mask in New Orleans on a day other than Fat Tuesday. Long memories.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 12, 2022, 01:12:04 PM
Ever think you'd be allowed to wear a mask into a bank?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 12, 2022, 04:25:29 PM
it's all fun & games until someone coughs!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on July 13, 2022, 12:08:08 AM
Quote from: ELA on July 10, 2022, 02:13:43 PM
I have three kids and my wife is a teacher, so the other four members of my household go off each day to three separate school buildings. The kids activities have been full blast massless for over a year now, so I'd actually be shocked if this was just my second infection.

In the past year we've been to the Smokies. We've been to the beach, we've been to Florida. Unless you live in a bubble you're going to get it.  And even then you might
How are you doing now?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on July 13, 2022, 12:16:13 AM
After that 36 hours of hell, fine.  Really, by Thursday afternoon I felt fine.  It went from every inch of my skin being on fire, to like a bad cold really quickly.  I still have a lingering cough, but coached a kids baseball game tonight, no breathing issues.

We'll see how I'm feeling this weekend. I might have to isolate in the basement with a few beers, just to be safe
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 14, 2022, 02:46:37 PM
looks like we might be going into a little surge from the latest covid strain

not bad yet but both new cases and deaths have increased
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 14, 2022, 02:56:30 PM
cases been surging here for a couple weeks

not enough that I'm wearing a mask or getting a booster, but thinking about it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 14, 2022, 03:22:42 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 14, 2022, 02:56:30 PM
cases been surging here for a couple weeks

not enough that I'm wearing a mask or getting a booster, but thinking about it
Its the hospitalizations and new deaths that you have to watch and as I just said they have increased by a small extent

Im not overly concerned yet but am monitoring it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 14, 2022, 03:25:21 PM
me too

I would certainly rather take a booster than a trip to the hospital

Really don't think I've had COVID yet - don't want it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 14, 2022, 03:26:41 PM
Just about anyone and everyone I know, that hadn't already had it, has gotten it over the past 4-6 weeks.  Including me, of course.

The couple we went to New Orleans with last weekend, both of them tested positive yesterday.  I'm pretty sure I know exactly when they were exposed-- one of our uber drivers, who was wearing a surgical mask, was sneezing a lot.  That was on Friday.  Since my wife and I had it just a few weeks prior, I'm not worried on my own behalf.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 14, 2022, 04:04:34 PM
The "long COVID" concerns me, to the extent it's a real thing.  I've not seen definitive studies on it, but I saw one had started.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 14, 2022, 04:12:04 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 14, 2022, 04:04:34 PM
The "long COVID" concerns me, to the extent it's a real thing.  I've not seen definitive studies on it, but I saw one had started.


I'm sure it exists, as "long symptoms" can linger for most or all viral infections.  I have no idea how prevalent it is.

Of all the folks I know who've had it, I don't know anyone complaining of lingering problems.  And that includes my 83yo and 81yo in-laws.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2022, 04:33:40 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 14, 2022, 03:26:41 PM
Just about anyone and everyone I know, that hadn't already had it, has gotten it over the past 4-6 weeks.  Including me, of course.

The couple we went to New Orleans with last weekend, both of them tested positive yesterday.  I'm pretty sure I know exactly when they were exposed-- one of our uber drivers, who was wearing a surgical mask, was sneezing a lot.  That was on Friday.  Since my wife and I had it just a few weeks prior, I'm not worried on my own behalf.
Great to know those things work!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on July 15, 2022, 02:50:44 PM
Ever since yours truly got COVID three weeks ago, my dry unproductive cough will not go away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 15, 2022, 03:09:22 PM
That lasted about 3 weeks for my wife, after she was "done" and testing negative. Hang in there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 16, 2022, 11:46:16 AM
Bit of an uptick in FL.

(https://i.imgur.com/4NhWCFW.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/cVX1Tts.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 16, 2022, 11:48:42 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/G9XrqFv.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/SjTpAxJ.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on July 16, 2022, 03:38:25 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 15, 2022, 03:09:22 PM
That lasted about 3 weeks for my wife, after she was "done" and testing negative. Hang in there.
Yeah, I still have it too.  My first negative was 6 days ago.  It's annoying, because, as you said, there's nothing to clear.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 16, 2022, 10:44:15 PM
Really glad I didn't have that lingering dry cough.  Never had much of a cough at all, maybe for one day of it all.  The most prevalent symptom for me was the overall body aches, and a specific back ache.  That's why it really just felt like seasonal allergies for me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 17, 2022, 06:12:33 AM
When my wife tested positive, she had been sneezing more than usual and she told me later she had off and on fever.  We had been walking many miles each day while she had it, so it wasn't debilitating for her.

For two days shortly afterwards, I was fairly dizzy, but had no other symptoms.  I looked up COVID symptoms and dizziness is one list, along with about a thousand other things.  I thought it was lack of alcohol, not COVID.  But maybe it was.

I never tested positive, but I only was tested the day before the cruise and the day before our flight home.  I'm not normally dizzy at all, there were some times when I had to stop on our walking tours and steady myself, but it wasn't that bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 17, 2022, 10:15:12 AM
Yeah dizziness and "brain fog" seem to be more prevalent in the most recent strains, anecdotally speaking from friends who've also had it.

I didn't have any of that.  Just body aches and a little fatigue for a few days, and one day of coughing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 17, 2022, 10:18:17 AM
I doubt I'd notice brain fog.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on July 17, 2022, 03:14:12 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 16, 2022, 10:44:15 PM
Really glad I didn't have that lingering dry cough.  Never had much of a cough at all, maybe for one day of it all.  The most prevalent symptom for me was the overall body aches, and a specific back ache.  That's why it really just felt like seasonal allergies for me.
Yeah, I had zero cough when I was actually sick.  It was the body aches and dizziness.  Then once I felt better, the cough came on.

The weird thing, and I don't know if it's a coincidence, but my allergies this year in my sinuses, had been the worst they had been in years.  And in the two weeks since I got COVD, they have been completely clear.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 17, 2022, 04:32:37 PM
I'm not sure why, but since I had a rather bad cold January 2020, I have not been "sick" as I define it, not a cold, not a sniffle, no a stomach ache, nothing, aside from a dizzy spell perhaps.

I've been more attentive about washing my hands, which might help on occasion.  Any time I come home I wash them.

I do think less travel to China by others could help some, and the shutdown of course avoided contact with sick people.  I often get sick following a long plane flight, see above, but we've flown to Europe once since and California twice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on July 17, 2022, 11:23:06 PM
My wife is from a large family. When her mother died in 1991 about 2,500 people, only about 120 of whom I knew, walked through the line to shake hands, and offer their condolences.
Her dad died in 2013, and since he was 88-years old, I didn't expect many to come through, and only about 1,200 came to the wake.
Both times some of my in-laws in the reception line came down with various illnesses in the day or two afterward. I knew they were infected by people who did not adequately wash hands, or breathed on them for too long.These were pre-COVID-19 events.
Through experience, we have a good idea how disease spreads easily among people close together who are hugging, shaking hands, or breathing on each other. At times close contact cannot be avoided, and as much as I try to avoid COVID-19, I have had it 2x, and I know how I got it each time, and it wasn't through hugging or shaking hands, but people breathing in the same room less than 6-feet apart. So far I have been lucky -- it has had very little effect on me. But, I worry about my 88 and 89 year old parents.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 26, 2022, 07:40:12 AM
https://apple.news/Apf3rPDd5TwiGRCindd8S4g


Interesting theories about those who have not had it yet.  

I think, I fall into that group but who knows.   Have tested 5-6 times since the beginning and all negatives.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 26, 2022, 07:49:48 AM
Interesting for sure. I know people who have not had it - that they know of anyway.

My DIL has not had it. She's an ER nurse and she's not vaccinated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 26, 2022, 08:06:09 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 26, 2022, 07:49:48 AM
Interesting for sure. I know people who have not had it - that they know of anyway.

My DIL has not had it. She's an ER nurse and she's not vaccinated.

I thought we were all pretty certain that everyone has had it 4 or 5 times? ;)

Seriously, though, by the end of this year, everyone might have had it 4 or 5 times...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 08:52:19 AM
don't think I've had it

don't want it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 26, 2022, 08:57:56 AM
If I had it, I didn't notice.  I never tested positive, my wife did and we were in close proximity.

I don't want it, but at the moment I'm not doing anything to avoid it.

Well, I started washing my hands after returning home as a practice. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 09:03:56 AM
if the numbers spike up here locally I'll schedule a booster

and possibly put on a mask occasionally
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on July 26, 2022, 09:39:47 AM
The Mrs. and I are waiting on the second booster until A) after the time from last infection runs off, and B) the boosters reflect the B.whatever variants that seem to be changing more often than I change socks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 26, 2022, 09:46:57 AM
I "think" the current booster does limit how serious any infection would be even if it is limited in preventing it.

I do think a modified vaccine would be a good thing, but I also think the virus is going to find a way around it quickly rendering it's prevention aspect minimal.  As people get effective vaccines against Variant X, it's going to die out, but not before Variant Y surfaces somewhere.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 26, 2022, 09:50:17 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 26, 2022, 09:46:57 AM
I "think" the current booster does limit how serious any infection would be even if it is limited in preventing it.

I do think a modified vaccine would be a good thing, but I also think the virus is going to find a way around it quickly rendering it's prevention aspect minimal.  As people get effective vaccines against Variant X, it's going to die out, but not before Variant Y surfaces somewhere.


as long as it stays weak we can function without lockdowns

hospitalizations remain very low and intensive care even lower

the WHO told me to get rid of all my monkeys
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 26, 2022, 09:52:58 AM
Yeah, so long as it stays weak, it's a good thing, I think, relative to what could be.  Herd immunity perhaps, or resistance.  It becomes a cold, hopefully without longer term ramifications.  My wife would not have known she had it had she not been tested, it was a surprise.

She's fine now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 26, 2022, 10:05:53 AM
Quote from: GopherRock on July 26, 2022, 09:39:47 AM
The Mrs. and I are waiting on the second booster until A) after the time from last infection runs off, and B) the boosters reflect the B.whatever variants that seem to be changing more often than I change socks.
Yup same here.

I have no interest getting stuck with the same ol' same ol' that's not stopping the spread anyway.  I'm not overly worried about getting sick from it, I've already done that, and it was like seasonal allergies but lasted much less time.

It's possible that stronger and more dangerous variants will come along, but in general that's not the way viruses work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 26, 2022, 10:09:33 AM
No more shots for me, period. I'm done, and I have my reasons.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 26, 2022, 02:06:10 PM
This guy is... something else again.

(https://i.imgur.com/dGvvvk5.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 02:10:39 PM
which guy?  Fauci or Paul? or both
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 26, 2022, 02:22:32 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 02:10:39 PM
which guy?  Fauci or Paul? or both
Or Tom Elliott (whoever that is)?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on July 26, 2022, 02:23:14 PM
Both this Tom Elliot dude and Rand Paul. Anything either says should be considered false and ignored unless and until proven otherwise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 26, 2022, 02:24:44 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on July 26, 2022, 02:23:14 PM
Both this Tom Elliot dude and Rand Paul. Anything either says should be considered false and ignored unless and until proven otherwise.
That’s why they call him Dr. Falsely.   

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 26, 2022, 02:31:34 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 02:10:39 PM
which guy?  Fauci or Paul? or both
Fauci.

Dr. Paul is fine, and it is Senatorial his right to question unelected officials in government.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 26, 2022, 02:32:27 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 26, 2022, 02:24:44 PM
That’s why they call him Dr. Falsely. 


I'm trying to think of things he's been correct on in this thing.

Even Dr. Birx is now admitting that they oversold the shots.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 26, 2022, 03:18:22 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 26, 2022, 02:32:27 PM
Even Dr. Birx is now admitting that they oversold the shots.

As always, turning it into a "my team vs. your team" issue, undermines credibility and generates hostility.  That move has to be seen as a pretty catastrophic failure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 26, 2022, 03:30:42 PM
Man, I drank all of that Kool-Aid from the start. Not anymore.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 26, 2022, 04:14:43 PM
Now the government wants to crack down on aprox 60 thousand servicemen who refused the shot
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 26, 2022, 04:26:01 PM
a direct order?

those poor fellas signed on the dotted line

I'd guess they've taken much more dangerous shots in the past
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 30, 2022, 09:34:21 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/eZoiDAk.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/809mK0o.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 30, 2022, 09:36:15 AM
hah, the unknown folks don't die
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 30, 2022, 10:04:28 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 30, 2022, 09:36:15 AM
hah, the unknown folks don't die
tough bunch
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on July 30, 2022, 01:33:58 PM
Out company is no longer tracking vaccines or boosters and won't have us 'check in' for coming into the office.  We're done, it's with us. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 31, 2022, 10:12:15 AM
Is it over?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-tests-positive-for-covid-19-again-11659207612?st=bhv8xaw32oolww8&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 31, 2022, 10:19:02 AM
As long as we keep on testing, we'll keep on finding COVID.

Same as if we keep testing for the flu, or the common cold.  It's never going away.

Hospital numbers are the metric to watch from now on.  The current strain is mild.  Hopefully that continues.  If it doesn't and we see hospital numbers on a sharp increase, then we can reevaluate our approach.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 31, 2022, 10:33:15 AM
This rebound behavior after taking plaxovid is interesting I think.

Maybe it happens without it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 31, 2022, 10:38:47 AM
Quote from: utee94 on July 31, 2022, 10:19:02 AM
As long as we keep on testing, we'll keep on finding COVID.

Same as if we keep testing for the flu, or the common cold.  It's never going away.

Hospital numbers are the metric to watch from now on.  The current strain is mild.  Hopefully that continues.  If it doesn't and we see hospital numbers on a sharp increase, then we can reevaluate our approach.

I think the testing thing needs to stop - especially when there are no symptoms. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 03, 2022, 09:33:55 AM
People vaccinated against Covid share common symptom after testing positive

While it may be widely known that common symptoms of Covid include fatigue, a sore throat, and headaches, there is another widespread symptom being cited among sufferers.

According to data gathered by the ZOE Health Study app, diarrhoea is a common symptom of Covid for vaccinated Britons.

Data shows that there was a rise in people reporting this symptom in January 2022, and that some of this was related to the Omicron variant of Covid-19.

However, the ZOE team pointed out that there seemed to be a “wave of other non-Covid tummy bugs going around too”.

The team said that diarrhoea can be an early symptom of the virus, starting on the first day of infection and getting worse throughout the week.

“It usually lasts for an average of two to three days, but can last up to seven days in adults,” the ZOE team said.

The data found this symptom has become less prevalent with each variant, as nearly a third of adults aged over 35 reported having diarrhoea during the Alpha wave, while just one in five said they experienced it during the Omicron and Delta waves.

The people who experienced it during the latter two waves had been vaccinated either twice or had also received their booster jab.

The NHS says diarrhoea is common in adults, and the most important thing to do is to stay hydrated.

The health service also advises to stay home and get plenty of rest, and eat food when you feel able to.

If you have diarrhoea along with other common Covid symptoms, like a high temperature, a new cough, and a loss or change of your sense of taste or smell, make sure you take a Covid test and follow government guidelines if you test positive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 03, 2022, 09:49:11 AM
Fortunately, I did not experience that one, despite being vaxed and boosted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2022, 06:00:21 PM
I have some vaccine side effects. Hindsight is 20-20 and I truly wish I never took the shots now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 03, 2022, 06:06:54 PM
Didn't hurt or help,I know someone well who died of the Virus and one who died after getting vaxxed
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on August 04, 2022, 12:34:20 AM
I have known 12 who died of the virus; none who succumbed to the vaccine.
I was boosted 2x. The first three were relatively benign shots. The fourth one seemed to spark up the arthritis in my shoulder that the shot sent into, and that lasted for over one-month.
I took the 2nd booster out of respect for my dad because of his age and his leukemia, who I was traveling to AZ to visit. Anything I could do to protect him while visiting, I did. He is doing amazingly well, now. His doctor says he is the miracle man.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 04, 2022, 10:34:47 AM
I'm still always so surprised to see the large differences in anecdotal experience.

I still don't know anyone who's been hospitalized, much less died, from COVID.  And that includes my 80+ year-old in-laws who got it back in summer 2020.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 04, 2022, 10:42:49 AM
Two friends in France, middle aged, were hospitalized with it, one spent time in ICU.  This was prevax.  One of the is here visiting now, he's a math professor.  That is all I know personally, but my range of acquaintances is not very large.  If we have a million deaths, that would be about 1 in 330 people, so it's improbable I'd know one unless my friends are mostly over 75.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 05, 2022, 08:17:04 AM
Quote from: utee94 on August 04, 2022, 10:34:47 AM
I'm still always so surprised to see the large differences in anecdotal experience.

I still don't know anyone who's been hospitalized, much less died, from COVID.  And that includes my 80+ year-old in-laws who got it back in summer 2020.


As am I.

I only know one person who went to the hospital and he was in for 4 weeks on a ventilator. 76 years old, heavy and diabetic. Former smoker.

He still has trouble with his lungs (of course - he had a tube stuck in there), but he's alive and still sending off-color jokes that end up on MR. N's thread.


I wonder how many ventilators we have sitting around.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: CatsbyAZ on August 11, 2022, 10:43:54 AM
According to the counts, the U.S. has consistently averaged over 2000 Covid deaths every week since the end of April. With vaccinations in place and with the U.S. enduring FIVE pronounced waves of deaths since Covid’s emergence in Spring of 2020, what constitutes the type of person who is dying from Covid at this point?

To take a general cross-section of the U.S. population, the typical person dying from Covid this late in the game would statistically be vaccinated but not boosted. And would have come down with Covid twice already.

For continuing deaths among the (immunized?) unvaccinated, then statistically this would be the third time the unvaccinated population has come down with Covid.

Are the new strains/variants that different to catch immunizations/vaccines off guard?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 11, 2022, 11:00:19 AM
Unfortunately, there is nowhere to go for solid information and data anymore.

But, as you suggest, it is an absolute certainty that people who are vaccinated are dying. Not sure what the causes of the deaths are though. 

Could be diabetes, heart disease, COPD, obesity, etc.

My personal belief, based on things I've read and also talking it over with my own doctor, is that Covid alone doesn't cause deaths. It does give the compromised a big push, however.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 11, 2022, 12:03:29 PM
I still think we are mixing folks dying from covid with folks dying with covid

overall hospitalizations from covid remains low

additionally because folks are getting covid more then once the number of new cases is becoming meaningless
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 11, 2022, 12:04:25 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 03, 2022, 09:33:55 AM
If you have diarrhoea along with other common Covid symptoms, like a high temperature, a new cough, and a loss or change of your sense of taste or smell, make sure you take a Covid test and follow government guidelines if you test positive.
I've had these symptoms when quaffing Bud Fat anyone else experience this?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 11, 2022, 12:08:23 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 11, 2022, 12:03:29 PM
I still think we are mixing folks dying from covid with folks dying with covid

overall hospitalizations from covid remains low

additionally because folks are getting covid more then once the number of new cases is becoming meaningless
"We" who?


:96:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 11, 2022, 12:37:56 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 11, 2022, 12:08:23 PM
"We" who?


:96:
we meaning the stats on worldometer and various other official covid stats services
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on August 11, 2022, 02:06:09 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 04, 2022, 10:34:47 AM
I'm still always so surprised to see the large differences in anecdotal experience.

I still don't know anyone who's been hospitalized, much less died, from COVID.  And that includes my 80+ year-old in-laws who got it back in summer 2020.
As I reported on here awhile back unfortunately I lost my dad to Covid as well as my uncle.  Last time I counted there was about 18 people on my list that I know died from covid.  Most I didn't know well, but I knew them.  Some were young, most were older.  

I think I kinda got nosy after dad, starting asking about the why and what.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 11, 2022, 02:17:21 PM
Yeah, still sorry for your loss.

What did you learn when you got nosy?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on August 11, 2022, 02:40:33 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 11, 2022, 02:17:21 PM
Yeah, still sorry for your loss.

What did you learn when you got nosy?
I started asking why people died.  Because often they were reluctant to tell when someone passed from COVID.  I started paying attention to the obituary's and asked around.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 13, 2022, 08:26:42 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/8x6TB8o.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/UCG8miY.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 13, 2022, 08:38:04 AM
Isolation and Precautions for People with COVID-19 | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/isolation.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 13, 2022, 08:43:10 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 11, 2022, 12:03:29 PM
I still think we are mixing folks dying from covid with folks dying with covid

overall hospitalizations from covid remains low

additionally because folks are getting covid more then once the number of new cases is becoming meaningless
The thing that irked me about this thing is that years in, there’s been very little good messaging about the whole mechanics of cause of death and that whole process.

In most cases, if illness gets you, it’s a combo of things. Like, my grandma died with heart failure. She died of a massive confluence of health issues just causing system-wide failures, but that happens when your old. She also lived with heart failure long enough that the heart failure was old enough to vote and join the army (I can’t recall if it got old enough to drink).

That’s not to say some people aren’t being listed when they does with COVID. But it’s also probably not as drastic as is sometimes described by dedicated skeptics. I imagine it’s somewhere in between.

Still, folks haven’t messaged what most death certificates with illness look like. As I understand, a lot, when it comes to illness, they often include a cocktail of things. But there’s been poor discussion of that, for whatever reason. (Plus it’s mostly back of mind anyway these days, thankfully)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on August 13, 2022, 08:47:11 AM
Quote from: utee94 on August 04, 2022, 10:34:47 AM
I'm still always so surprised to see the large differences in anecdotal experience.

I still don't know anyone who's been hospitalized, much less died, from COVID.  And that includes my 80+ year-old in-laws who got it back in summer 2020.


It’s interesting.

Off the top of my head, I know one friend who was in the hospital for like 3-4 weeks. He was not in optimum health, vaxxed, not boosted.

An associate of his, who I didn’t know, but a lot of friends did, died at age 34 with kid No. 1 on the way. Unknown if he got the jab, but was a real sad story.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 13, 2022, 11:56:03 AM
Small study in Thailand, but the results were out of 202 boys age 13-18, 3 had chest pain and elevated troponins. 4 had no symptoms but elevated troponins indicating cardiac damage. 7/202 over 3%. This could’ve been investigated long ago here in the USA,  but wasn’t for... reasons, I guess.

https://twitter.com/VPrasadMDMPH/status/1557353760225169414?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1557353760225169414%7Ctwgr%5E99cc2522c5908687f88bea9b73f8986ced842215%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.surlyhorns.com%2Fboard%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fvprasadmdmph%2Fstatus%2F1557353760225169414%3Fs%3D2126t%3D_mLLsZq7xh53fB7J0fSOVQ




Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 13, 2022, 11:58:19 AM
And thank goodness our great benevolent Social Media gatekeepers continue to protect us from harmful... science...

https://twitter.com/venkmurthy/status/1557332209970937856?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1557332209970937856%7Ctwgr%5Ed2c82d268b11c18ae83bca55a72fafdfbf2e7fb1%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.surlyhorns.com%2Fboard%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fvenkmurthy%2Fstatus%2F1557332209970937856%3Fs%3D2126t%3DuX1avximqgHYR0kEpg1R5A

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 14, 2022, 08:29:44 AM
The beat goes on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 15, 2022, 03:53:47 PM
LMAO. 

FYI Albert Bourla is the CEO of Pfizer...


(https://i.imgur.com/439fzrI.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 15, 2022, 04:15:09 PM
dat you?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 15, 2022, 04:26:28 PM
Who dat?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 15, 2022, 05:56:02 PM
who day
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 16, 2022, 06:29:08 AM
Dey?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 16, 2022, 08:47:31 AM
DUH
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2022, 12:35:49 PM
Shocked, I tell ya.

CDC director orders agency overhaul, admitting flawed Covid-19 response (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/cdc-director-orders-agency-overhaul-admitting-flawed-covid-19-response/ar-AA10LF6y?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=b01ec2a88286496e9a083c255e3f3802)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2022, 12:57:23 PM
I noticed a few more folks in CA wearing masks outside (or inside).  It wasn't very common though, but more noticeable than around here.  They seemed to be mostly white and somewhat elderly, 50+.  I noticed a few on the plane, not many.  I'm sure it's a political statement for some.

I took a mask "in case" and never wore it.  

We were waiting on food at one place with a view to the road outside and I estimated that about one in 15 cars were electric, usually Teslas, in Monterey, CA.

I saw gas from $4.67 at Costco to $5.65 in SF.  It's about a dollar cheaper here.

My wife wants to go back to SanDiego for Thanksgiving, so we are going.  Meh, too much traveling for me.  We have a major cruise slated in February.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2022, 08:52:07 AM
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1560366975775285248?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1560366977935343618%7Ctwgr%5E113054a6f807432c8e4edb12617b226d582a5fcb%7Ctwcon%5Es2_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.surlyhorns.com%2Fboard%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Ftelegraph%2Fstatus%2F1560366977935343618%3Fs%3D2126t%3DIBZplbqcmx9dAdk1ea5Pyg

And the rest of Europe:

(https://i.imgur.com/9aXYqTZ.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 20, 2022, 08:58:04 AM
That's behind a pay wall so cannot read it. The effects of lockdowns are going to be felt for a LONG time, for sure. For example...

Kids in 2nd grade might just need to start kindergarten again. Socially and academically, they have been ruined. I always like to say kids are resilient, but we're talking about being locked down and masked for a good portion of their lives.

Not good. Hopefully they can recover.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2022, 08:58:59 AM
I wonder if the countries who locked down hard initially simply put off the inevitable and are now reaping the consequences, area under the curve.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2022, 09:00:18 AM
My kids were in 4th and 6th grade when it began.  They missed the final 1/3 of those years, and about 1/6 of the next year.  It affected them for sure, but they are indeed resilient and have bounced back.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2022, 09:01:40 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 20, 2022, 08:58:59 AM
I wonder if the countries who locked down hard initially simply put off the inevitable and are now reaping the consequences, area under the curve.
That was my first thought.  But the language makes me think these are additional deaths above and beyond those that are currently being attributed to COVID. Who even knows anymore? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2022, 09:04:35 AM
The map just says excess deaths.  Now the first link shows excess deaths other than COVID.  I'd have to delve into that more than is available here.

I could think up several explanations for excess nonCOVID deaths, including deaths caused by folks who had COVID earlier and have contracted heart issues as a result.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 20, 2022, 09:05:11 AM
Quote from: utee94 on August 20, 2022, 09:00:18 AM
My kids were in 4th and 6th grade when it began.  They missed the final 1/3 of those years, and about 1/6 of the next year.  It affected them for sure, but they are indeed resilient and have bounced back.

Well that's different than missing two full years.

Have you seen that some schools are doing mask mandates THIS year? Milwaukee, Philly, NYC. I'm sure there are more lockdown loons out there.

There are even some loons here in FL. I read that Sarasota wants to impose masks, but they would lose 18 Mil in state funding if they do.

Why do this to the kids??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2022, 09:08:01 AM
I don't really see masks as a big deal.  My kids did it for most of last school year.

I also don't think they're effective or helpful against the current strain.  Being within 6 feet of an infected person who is giving off the virus, for 15 minutes or more, does the trick.  Mask or not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2022, 09:09:35 AM
I still think if an infectious person wears a mask it cuts down on the odds of infecting someone else nearby.  It's likely a modest, but real effect, 20% or something like that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2022, 09:12:57 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 20, 2022, 09:09:35 AM
I still think if an infectious person wears a mask it cuts down on the odds of infecting someone else nearby.  It's likely a modest, but real effect, 20% or something like that.
I don't think this is true, at all.  Not with the current strain.  Not for cloth or surgical masks.  The virus passes easily through those masks during the course of normal breathing, and if you're within 6 feet for 15 minutes or more, the saturation of viral load leads to inevitable consequences.

N95 masks are something else, but almost nobody is wearing those.  And if everyone in the country all of a sudden had to wear one, there wouldn't be enough to last a week or two.

Fortunately, the current strain is also very mild in its symptoms, which was not unexpected as the potential path of mutation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 20, 2022, 09:13:09 AM
The virus goes right through a mask that is not made from a solid. It doesn't care about masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2022, 09:19:52 AM
The virus itself is not what is transmitted,  it has to come in droplets.  Any mask will attenuate passage of droplets.

I view this as a pretty simple observation personally.  This is why we cover our mouth with our hand if we cough or sneeze.  Obviously that is marginally effective, but I'm certain it reduces chances of speading something by a smallish amount.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2022, 10:20:24 AM
If you're suggesting that masks are effective as spit catchers I will certainly agree.

If you're asserting that aerosolized droplets containing coronavirus are too large to pass through a cloth mask or surgical mask, the evidence is strongly contradictory.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2022, 01:54:05 PM
Filtration is a fairly involved "science", and particles smaller than the holes in a filter do get entrapped often as not.  Other factors are important beyond "interception'.

When someone sneezes, you can see the droplets coming out of their mouths.  A cloth mask clearly knocks these down.  Is it perfect?  No, of course not, but they do some.  I just don't  understand the notion that a mask is 100.0000% ineffective.  It's contrary to a number of studies I've seen, but mostly just common sense, to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2022, 02:00:17 PM
It's a matter of time, distance, and saturation/tipping point of the viral load.  There's a certain point where enough of the virus has escaped the infected's mouth and nose, and built up around him, that exposure is inevitable.

Spend 15 minutes within 6 feet of even a person that's wearing a cloth or surgical mask, and you are within a cloud of virus that has escaped the mask and has reached a saturation level sufficient to infect you.

The virologists have been very clear on this time/distance calculation for over two years now.  The masks are irrelevant at that time/distance.  It's a cloud in the air around an infected person. The evidence confirms this, especially with the most recent strain.  Scores of thousands of people are being infected regardless of mask wearage.  Both my son and daughter were, at school.  My wife was, at work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2022, 02:04:16 PM
What about exposure on say an elevator for less than a minute?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2022, 02:07:24 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 20, 2022, 02:04:16 PM
What about exposure on say an elevator for less than a minute?
Virologists say this is an unlikely scenario for transmission. 

Now if you were both unmasked and an infected person spit into your mouth on an elevator, I'd think the chances of transmission would increase.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2022, 02:18:29 PM
How effective is a mask in preventing COVID‐19 infection? - Wang - 2021 - MEDICAL DEVICES &amp; SENSORS - Wiley Online Library (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/mds3.10163)

Nearly everything I've read says masks have at least some level of effectivess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2022, 03:35:37 PM
I've seen numerous occurrences of masks not preventing infection when space was close and duration > 15 minutes.  Which is exactly how we've been told this thing spreads for the past 2.5 years.

You can continue to believe in the effectiveness of masks if you want.  I don't.  Time and distance are what matters.

In fact, the sole reason I got COVID from my wife, is because her mask and her patient's mask failed to stop the transmission a few days earlier.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2022, 03:45:20 PM
And my position continues to be that masks are somewhat effective.  And that position is consistent with any number of credible studies on masking.

That said, I have not worn one in months myself.  At this point, I'm not a "believer" is masking.  But I do think they are somewhat effective.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2022, 03:55:19 PM
If they're not going to stop my kids from getting it at school and they're not going to stop my wife from getting it at the office, then I can't consider them "effective."  Not even partially effective.  They failed utterly and completely to do, what they were intended to do.

At this point any further masking requirement is silly and is more about virtue signaling than health.

But like I said before, if for some reason our schools started requiring them again, my kids would be fine with it.   They'll manage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2022, 04:32:21 PM
It's about statistics, which are important when considering public health overall.  If masks are roughly 20% effective, it means also they fail 80% of the time, which is not all that impressive until you run the numbers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2022, 04:34:37 PM
I see no evidence they've been 20% effective.  Their failure rate is 100%.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2022, 04:42:54 PM
I can post study after study, but perhaps they aren't compelling.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 20, 2022, 04:49:04 PM
I think the question now is should you wear a mask to keep from getting a cold which is basically what the current covid is

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2022, 04:59:15 PM
They won't keep you from getting a cold, they COULD keep an infected person from infecting others.

And I'm not in favor of mask mandates outside specific situations.  I like my surgeon to wear one when he has my body opened up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2022, 04:59:57 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 20, 2022, 04:42:54 PM
I can post study after study, but perhaps they aren't compelling. 
They aren't compelling at all.  I've done my own study and the failure rate is 100%.

My wife-- has been wearing masks with her patients for the past 2.5 years.  Sometimes her patients also wear a mask, sometimes they don't.  But in this case, the patient was also wearing a mask, and it's the very first time a patient has told her after a session "Hey I developed symptoms shortly after our appointment and then I tested positive."  And then a couple days later, my wife tested positive.  This is the first and only time in 2.5 years that a direct contact trace with a known positive case has occurred, and it penetrated the mask.  That represents a 100% failure rate of the mask working, against a known positive.

My son- had been wearing a mask at school for over a year.  All other students were required to wear masks.  The first and only time we were notified of a direct contact trace from a confirmed positive child in his class, a child he sat with for an hour every day at a distance of about 2-3', it penetrated the mask.  That represents a 100% failure rate of the mask working, against a known positive.

My daughter is the exact same story.  Both kids wearing masks, sit next to each other for an hour per day at less than 6', the first and only time we're notified of a direct contact trace from a known positive, and my daughter turns up positive as well.  That represents a 100% failure rate of the mask working, against a known positive.

100% failure rate in my own clinical study.  I'm satisfied with the accuracy and legitimacy of my conclusion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2022, 05:33:31 PM
I personally don’t think much of small anecdotal accounts
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2022, 05:58:14 PM
And I don't think much of bullshit studies that arrive at incorrect conclusions, especially when they concern serious matters of public health.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 20, 2022, 06:47:42 PM
I can agree with both of your arguments

as could you
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 20, 2022, 06:53:55 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 20, 2022, 06:47:42 PM
I can agree with both of your arguments

as could you

It's all just a matter of perspective and opinion.  I don't believe that cloth or surgical masks make enough of a difference to warrant any mask mandates as a matter of public policy with respect to concerns over coronavirus transmission, especially given the increasingly mild and endemic nature of COVID19.

But of course, people are free to take whatever personal precautions they like regarding their own health concerns.  If folks want to wear masks, more power to them.

And if folks are feeling ill, then they should stay at home, rather than leave their house and trust that a mask will protect others from their own sickness.  This should be Lesson#1 that we've learned through all of this.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2022, 09:45:12 AM
We've noted all along how often someone can be contagious and asymptomatic.  I was quite surprised to learn that flu does this as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 21, 2022, 09:49:05 AM
Sure.  And at this point, mandating masks just because someone might be asymptomatic and have it, isn't going to cut it.

The pandemic's over.  COVID is now endemic.  

The government and everyone else need to understand that, and account for it, in matters of public policy.

If you're really afraid of catching it, then go ahead and self-isolate.  But the rest of the world deserves to be done with that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2022, 09:53:57 AM
I'm against mask and vax mandates except in specific circumstances.  I've seen a few retail outlets requesting masks on customers and if I really want to enter, I oblige them.  I usually don't want to enter much.

We were at the Arts Festival yesterday with thousands of others and a few folks wore masks, it can be a political statement now for some more than anything.  Some of the art is pretty neat to see, but we don't have any more bare walls at this point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 21, 2022, 10:11:10 AM
Yup I'll wear a mask if a business requires it.  They probably need to provide the masks at this point, though-- I stopped carrying mine around over a year ago.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2022, 10:18:59 AM
Our symphony had a mandate last year for half the season, then dropped it, and then reinstated it for a Yo Yo Ma special concert by his request, then dropped it again.

Our guess is my wife contracted COVID there (at a later mask free concert), we're not sure where else it could have been, maybe a restaurant.  Lufthansa was very insistent on masks for the flight, but the airport in Germany didn't care at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 21, 2022, 12:27:51 PM
I just tested positive for COVID-19

crappy fever, headache, and tired as hell

went to bed at 8pm last night, slept on and off for 14 hours
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2022, 01:42:49 PM
Poop.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 21, 2022, 01:53:16 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 21, 2022, 12:27:51 PM
I just tested positive for COVID-19

crappy fever, headache, and tired as hell

went to bed at 8pm last night, slept on and off for 14 hours
Hope you are arranging T-times and back to crappy Beer real soon
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 21, 2022, 01:55:26 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 21, 2022, 12:27:51 PM
I just tested positive for COVID-19

crappy fever, headache, and tired as hell

went to bed at 8pm last night, slept on and off for 14 hours
So are you by yourself?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 21, 2022, 01:58:15 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 20, 2022, 06:53:55 PM
It's all just a matter of perspective and opinion.  I don't believe that cloth or surgical masks make enough of a difference to warrant any mask mandates as a matter of public policy with respect to concerns over coronavirus transmission, especially given the increasingly mild and endemic nature of COVID19.
Maybe If I was briefly in a packed elvator or on mass transit.Might be better off keeping up on nutrition/vitamins and Jim Beam of course
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 21, 2022, 03:57:16 PM
Daughter left a few hourts ago, so yes, I'm alone

had to skip golf this afternoon and cancel my trip to Denver this week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 21, 2022, 06:08:38 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 21, 2022, 03:57:16 PM
Daughter left a few hourts ago, so yes, I'm alone

had to skip golf this afternoon and cancel my trip to Denver this week.
Get better dude.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 21, 2022, 06:25:16 PM
thanks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2022, 06:32:58 PM
Keep us appraised.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 21, 2022, 09:42:24 PM
Take two Tylenol with a glass of OJ, followed by a glass of milk paired with some zinc. 

Oh, and get some sun. Lots of sun.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 21, 2022, 10:04:19 PM
no Tylenol , OJ, , milk , or zinc in the house

but, I might get out tomorrow and mow the lawn

I have a rider

we'll see, wasn't up to it today
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 21, 2022, 10:20:44 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 21, 2022, 12:27:51 PM
I just tested positive for COVID-19

crappy fever, headache, and tired as hell

went to bed at 8pm last night, slept on and off for 14 hours
(https://i.imgur.com/9R80kK4.png)


Seriously though, hang in there.  Lots and lots of water.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 22, 2022, 07:42:43 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 21, 2022, 10:04:19 PM
no Tylenol , OJ, , milk , or zinc in the house

but, I might get out tomorrow and mow the lawn

I have a rider

we'll see, wasn't up to it today
Ya go to the store and spread it around,J/K,ASK a neighbor if they're going out - or your golf buddies ,you have a few of them, Good Luck BTW D-3 also if you have some
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2022, 07:43:34 AM
I recommend against Tylenol for any who drink alcohol a fair bit.

Take an NSAID instead.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 22, 2022, 07:47:01 AM
A couple a day but you're right,know someone who came very close to their "last call" doing that
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 22, 2022, 07:52:03 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 22, 2022, 07:43:34 AM
I recommend against Tylenol for any who drink alcohol a fair bit.

Take an NSAID instead.
We do not like the side effects. Honestly did not take any with Covid after the first bout back in 3/2020.

But, have had surgeries and to take the pain meds (hydrocodone) they always have Tylenol in them. I make a point to ask for the highest does of the hydrocodone because no matter the dose of that, the amount of Tylenol is the same.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2022, 07:56:10 AM
When I had shoulder surgery, they gave me a script for 45 pills of oxy.  I took one.  I think people whine so much about "pain" the MDs overprescribe.  And it wasn't as if I was suffering not taking more.  They gave me a pain block shot and I could feel that wearing off so I took an oxy as a precaution.  And sure after the oxy wore off I had some achiness, and going to the bathroom was nearly impossible too.

I take ibu or Aleve before I start baseball camp, and during.  Either helps with soreness a lot.  Otherwise I go a year without taking any of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 22, 2022, 10:29:27 AM
Im an Advil guy

rarely need any but when I do it works for me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 22, 2022, 10:40:20 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 22, 2022, 07:43:34 AM
I recommend against Tylenol for any who drink alcohol a fair bit.

Take an NSAID instead.
no idear what a NSAID is, but I have been know to have a few beers
haven't had a beer since Saturday afternoon on the back 9, it wasn't tasting good.  That's when I knew something was amiss 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 22, 2022, 10:40:42 AM
I did a quick search...

Ibuprofen: Motrin®, Advil®, Motrin IB
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 22, 2022, 10:42:06 AM
We use Naproxen if we need it, but that's very rare. We also keep Voltarin around the house as a topical thing for arthritis or other minor pain. Again, rare.

Last time I used any pain meds was when I broke my leg/ankle on Christmas Day. It was hydrocodone pre-surgery and then tramadol for about 3 days after surgery. Pre-surgery was much more painful. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 22, 2022, 10:43:10 AM
Oh, and gummies. Those are around.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 22, 2022, 10:45:52 AM
slacker stoner
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2022, 10:47:54 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 22, 2022, 10:40:42 AM
I did a quick search...

Ibuprofen: Motrin®, Advil®, Motrin IB
NSAID = NonSteroidal AntiInflammatory

Naproxen and Aspirin are both NSAIDs also.  Acetomeniphen is hard on the liver.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 22, 2022, 10:48:04 AM
Nah.

But they are effective on one thing. Keeps me from drinking too much. My liver is thankful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 22, 2022, 11:27:00 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 22, 2022, 07:56:10 AM
When I had shoulder surgery, they gave me a script for 45 pills of oxy.  I took one.  I think people whine so much about "pain" the MDs overprescribe. 
ED ZACHERY, Surgeon gave me 60 oxy 325 mgs for after hernia surgery in 2016. I told him I wouldn't use them he said "oh yes you will" ,pffft! Whiners is right,I was uncomfortable but if there is severe pain I want to know that something is wrong.Special with sensitive areas like that.It killed my oldest brother in 2013 - infection/sepsis. Overperscribing is right,I did break a few in quarters to help me sleep occassionally,but most I gave to a brother and a friend who had bad neck/back problems/surgery/fusion. But I dolled them periodically specially to a friend - I could see him getting addicted,fortunately he never did
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2022, 01:22:27 PM
Does anyone have any explanation for the rises and falls of COVID infections?  I've heard the weather one, but it doesn't seem to correlation well at all, to me.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 22, 2022, 01:38:22 PM
Agree, they don't really seem to follow weather seasonality, at least not in the way we've typically associated weather with flu and colds.  It's weird.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 22, 2022, 01:40:16 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 22, 2022, 01:22:27 PM
Does anyone have any explanation for the rises and falls of COVID infections?  I've heard the weather one, but it doesn't seem to correlation well at all, to me.


covid has been down for the last 6 months with no sign that the current covid strain will rise beyond current numbers

there might be a slight increase when cold weather gets here but right now thats just a guess

there are so many unreported cases out there that the recorded  numbers are just not reflective of the real new case number but thats because the current strain is very mild

in short unless another strain comes along which is much stronger this pandemic is over
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2022, 01:57:38 PM
Hopefully so, I still don't understand the cyclicality of this disease.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 22, 2022, 02:16:53 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 22, 2022, 01:57:38 PM
Hopefully so, I still don't understand the cyclicality of this disease.
once again IMHO because there is a huge number of unreported cases its not possible to know what the current cycle is

when the strain is very bad and anyone who gets it has to seek medical help its pretty easy to rely on reported numbers but thats just not the current situation
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 22, 2022, 02:24:10 PM
Everyone has had it.

At least twice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 22, 2022, 02:50:24 PM
I don't hope to get it a second time, but my first time won't be reported
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2022, 04:14:40 PM
Well, there is some obvious cyclicality in reported COVID cases.  I presume that somewhat mirrors actual cases.  It makes no sense to me.

If I have had it, I didn't notice.  I think I've been less sick since January 2020 than any 2+ year period in 20 years.  I just got my flu shot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 23, 2022, 07:13:57 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 22, 2022, 04:14:40 PM
Well, there is some obvious cyclicality in reported COVID cases.  I presume that somewhat mirrors actual cases.  It makes no sense to me.

If I have had it, I didn't notice.  I think I've been less sick since January 2020 than any 2+ year period in 20 years.  I just got my flu shot.
Quote from: FearlessF on August 22, 2022, 02:50:24 PM
I don't hope to get it a second time, but my first time won't be reported
There you have it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 23, 2022, 07:18:13 AM
Obviously, reported cases are a subset of total cases, but I think the two things roughly run parallel.  It's possible some extremely mild variant runs through the population and is not detected, but I think this unlikely.  Additionally they now monitor sewerage for COVID.

Anyway, we keep seeing bumps in reported COVID with no apparent seasonality to it.  I don't understand that, perhaps it's just the latest subvariant appearing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 23, 2022, 07:49:53 AM
Ebb and flow. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 23, 2022, 10:21:24 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 23, 2022, 07:18:13 AM
Obviously, reported cases are a subset of total cases, but I think the two things roughly run parallel.  It's possible some extremely mild variant runs through the population and is not detected, but I think this unlikely.  Additionally they now monitor sewerage for COVID.

Anyway, we keep seeing bumps in reported COVID with no apparent seasonality to it.  I don't understand that, perhaps it's just the latest subvariant appearing.
there has not been a "bump" in the US in six months
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 23, 2022, 10:23:50 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/6uj0Uzr.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 23, 2022, 10:28:37 AM
France COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer (worldometers.info) (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/)

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer (worldometers.info) (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us)

Georgia COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer (worldometers.info) (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/georgia/)


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 23, 2022, 11:06:05 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 23, 2022, 10:28:37 AM
France COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer (worldometers.info) (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/)

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer (worldometers.info) (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us)

Georgia COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer (worldometers.info) (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/georgia/)



as I said there has not been a bump in the US for over six months

has there been minor ups and downs sure but no repeat of prior surges
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 27, 2022, 11:02:40 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/j4oUxTy.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/CjyEG9Y.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 27, 2022, 11:04:11 AM
RE: Florida:

I expected more of a bump in the summer months as people tend to be indoors more due to the heat.

Maybe a bump will come when the population surges again in October/November. Not sure what to expect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 27, 2022, 11:06:15 AM
About every 6 months we get a bump.  I don't think it's weather related.  It just happens, perhaps the time off is needed for a newer variant to get into circulation.

I see little evidence many folks care about it at this point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 27, 2022, 11:29:47 AM
for the last 6 months the new cases number has been low with minor ups and downs

if you want to call the minor ups a bump no problem but there has not been a major surge during that time

unless another strain is introduced this thing is over

some schools in blue states continue to require students to wear masks

I believe this is wrong and should be discontinued
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 27, 2022, 11:31:10 AM
Small or large, we still have bumps in the reported case rate that are unexplained in my view.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 27, 2022, 11:34:57 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 27, 2022, 11:31:10 AM
Small or large, we still have bumps in the reported case rate that are unexplained in my view.
whats there to explain

nature is not constant

you are wondering why we have 100 more cares today then yesterday and why we have 150 fewer cases tomorrow

have fun
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 27, 2022, 11:40:09 AM
No, clearly I wonder why there is a bump about every 6 months.  Nature generally is consistent, much about it does have rational explanations which can be useful.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 27, 2022, 12:00:43 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 27, 2022, 11:40:09 AM
No, clearly I wonder why there is a bump about every 6 months.  Nature generally is consistent, much about it does have rational explanations which can be useful.


not "is"


"has been"

you might as well track colds and other minor diseases because that is what covid has become
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 27, 2022, 12:11:44 PM
don't tempt him
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 27, 2022, 01:08:08 PM
I suppose I'm naturally curious about puzzles.  I thought someone here might be able to offer a possible explanation.  

This doesn't relate at all to whether it's still a serious situation or kids should wear masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 27, 2022, 02:39:04 PM
If you are talking about the past two years then yes the covid cycle is open for whatever theory one might like to have

If you are talking about going forward there is no surge and unless a new strain pops up there wont be one

Thats because this thing is over

and the reason I bring up the kids is because many for whatever reason dont seem to want to accept its a new day and the current covid does not require mask wearing by children or anyone else

Im holding my fire on the reason I think school mask wearing is still being pushed in some blue states.  I just hope for the sake of the children this practice is discontinued
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 27, 2022, 03:35:44 PM
One can speculate on what we've seen in the past of course where we have some reasonably reliable data.  I find the cyclicality curious.  Others may not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 02, 2022, 11:42:10 AM
So...

The CDC signed off on the omicron booster that the FDA cleared yesterday.

There were no human trials on this booster.

My choice is to not go anywhere near this thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 02, 2022, 12:06:24 PM
I'm sure to get the booster myself with my wife when it's available.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 02, 2022, 12:35:47 PM
I'd consider getting a booster if it were targeted at an upcoming potential variant.  But not if it's attempting to address the variant I already had 2 months ago...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 02, 2022, 12:40:07 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 02, 2022, 12:35:47 PM
I'd consider getting a booster if it were targeted at an upcoming potential variant.  But not if it's attempting to address the variant I already had 2 months ago...
exactly

looks like just an attempt to make money from a strain which is way milder then previous ones with no proof that it works or that it has no bad effects
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 02, 2022, 01:22:52 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 02, 2022, 12:35:47 PM
I'd consider getting a booster if it were targeted at an upcoming potential variant.  But not if it's attempting to address the variant I already had 2 months ago...
Exactly amigo.


The CDC now even agrees that prior infection is better than the vaccine that really isn't a vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 02, 2022, 01:32:07 PM
I'm pretty sure I'll get this in a few months, maybe sooner, we'll see what the guidelines are.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 02, 2022, 01:43:42 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 02, 2022, 01:32:07 PM
I'm pretty sure I'll get this in a few months, maybe sooner, we'll see what the guidelines are.


living life on the edge

hope it works out for you
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 02, 2022, 03:01:15 PM
We travel a lot, I'd prefer not getting sick as a result, or during.  And I'm old.  I did three miles today and feel it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 02, 2022, 04:54:39 PM
I might get the boost in a few months if the human trials go well

and there's significant spike that causes me to feel like I might get COVID again
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on September 02, 2022, 05:14:36 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 02, 2022, 01:22:52 PM
Exactly amigo.


The CDC now even agrees that prior infection is better than the vaccine that really isn't a vaccine.
Same.  I get why these are backwards facing, but at some point, what's the point?

We've cured AIDS up to like 20 years ago too.  But we don't administer it, from what I understand.  From a science standpoint, it's amazing how closely we are keeping up with this thing, but we still aren't catching up to it to a point that I feel like unless you are immuno-compromised it matters.  You'll still get it, symptoms will likely be less severe, but 90% of the people I know are vaxed, boosted, and have had it.  So I'm not sure what another booster does
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 02, 2022, 05:20:48 PM
well, it "MIGHT" lessen the seriousness of the symptoms

that's about all it can do

in some cases that might not do much of anything

in other cases it might prevent hospitalization or death

nobody knows
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 03, 2022, 08:23:58 AM
The original vaccine is reported to lessen symptoms, I imagine the updated one would do the same.  But we all know corona virus is "agile" and going to morph constantly, to some extent rendering folks resistant creates a Darwinian environment for it to morph.  The old one dies out, and anything new takes its place.

I do agree at some point "we" have to stop chasing the next variant with a vaccine for the older one.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 03, 2022, 09:05:08 AM
go to a vaccine more like the flu?

hopefully guess what variant is coming and shoot for it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 03, 2022, 09:18:08 AM
You'd need to know the nature of the spike protein to do that with mRNA vaccines.  The flu vaccine is traditional, based on guess work in effect by the CDC as to what versions are cropping up in China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 03, 2022, 09:22:00 AM
why is it ALWAYS about China??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 06, 2022, 10:03:11 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on September 03, 2022, 09:22:00 AM
why is it ALWAYS about China??
Plagues and shitty products from China.

Hurricanes from Africa.





Why can't we just be left alone?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on September 06, 2022, 02:22:38 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 06, 2022, 10:03:11 AM
Plagues and shitty products from China.

Hurricanes from Africa.





Why can't we just be left alone?
And the weird football from Europe
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 06, 2022, 04:33:05 PM
CDC Warns Of New 'Stealth' COVID Variant Where You Test Negative And Get No Symptoms | Babylon Bee (https://babylonbee.com/news/cdc-warns-of-new-stealth-covid-variant-where-you-test-negative-and-get-no-symptoms?utm_source=The Babylon Bee)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on September 06, 2022, 06:27:05 PM
Quote from: ELA on September 06, 2022, 02:22:38 PM
And the weird football from Europe
Don't forget about those stupid rats with wings from Canada (geese).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 06, 2022, 06:32:10 PM
mmmmm geese

(https://i.imgur.com/jYjDiz3.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 06, 2022, 06:34:10 PM
nope
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on September 06, 2022, 07:44:26 PM
Quote from: MarqHusker on September 06, 2022, 06:27:05 PM
Don't forget about those stupid rats with wings from Canada (geese).
Build the (super high Northern) wall!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on September 06, 2022, 08:51:18 PM
Do geese even migrate anymore?  I know this, many don't.   About a million reside in the Horicon National Wildlife Refuge in SE WI and they sure as hell never seem to leave here in IN for more than three months. 

Snow Geese on the other hand... they rarely land here in the States but man that wall would need to be about 3 miles high.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 06, 2022, 08:56:44 PM
if they're bothering you just cook 'em and eat 'em.   Bon appétit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 06, 2022, 09:09:34 PM
as Marq knows, the snow geese land in Nebraska, not for long, just passing through

I've had some good wild goose

I'd rather eat wild duck, pheasant, quail, or turkey
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 07, 2022, 07:35:14 AM
Quote from: MarqHusker on September 06, 2022, 06:27:05 PM
Don't forget about those stupid rats with wings from Canada (geese).
That's one of many things I don't miss being down here.

However, I'd trade no-see-ums for geese whenever you want. I'll even take the skeeters as a bonus for you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 08, 2022, 10:22:22 AM
Pretty interesting.

Don't pet the sweaty stuff maybe?


Study finds link between poor mental health and long Covid | Long Covid | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/sep/07/study-finds-link-between-poor-mental-health-and-long-covid)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 08, 2022, 12:29:29 PM
what is long covid?

new strain?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 08, 2022, 01:16:58 PM
It's a thing where symptoms hang on for a good while, but comes up negative in testing.

I think??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 08, 2022, 03:50:15 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 08, 2022, 01:16:58 PM
It's a thing where symptoms hang on for a good while, but comes up negative in testing.

I think??
maybe its old age
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 08, 2022, 03:53:59 PM
This is regular COVID.

And this is long


(https://i.imgur.com/hMiJW0j.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 08, 2022, 04:13:06 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 08, 2022, 03:50:15 PM
maybe its old age
Long COVID or Post-COVID Conditions | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/long-term-effects/index.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 08, 2022, 04:26:45 PM
seems like if they talk about long covid they should also mention short covid
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 08, 2022, 04:29:34 PM
Or maybe just sit down and watch.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 10, 2022, 09:50:33 AM
https://www.wsj.com/articles/rushing-covid-vaccines-bivalent-pfizer-moderna-risk-harm-sickness-shots-pandemic-fda-skeptics-11662149144?st=hxx2yiiov90f5de&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 12, 2022, 03:30:25 PM
Uh huh.

Cureus | Regular Use of Ivermectin as Prophylaxis for COVID-19 Led Up to a 92% Reduction in COVID-19 Mortality Rate in a Dose-Response Manner: Results of a Prospective Observational Study of a Strictly Controlled Population of 88,012 Subjects (https://www.cureus.com/articles/111851-regular-use-of-ivermectin-as-prophylaxis-for-covid-19-led-up-to-a-92-reduction-in-covid-19-mortality-rate-in-a-dose-response-manner-results-of-a-prospective-observational-study-of-a-strictly-controlled-population-of-88012-subjects?email_share=true&expedited_modal=true)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 12, 2022, 06:01:00 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 12, 2022, 03:30:25 PM
Uh huh.

Cureus | Regular Use of Ivermectin as Prophylaxis for COVID-19 Led Up to a 92% Reduction in COVID-19 Mortality Rate in a Dose-Response Manner: Results of a Prospective Observational Study of a Strictly Controlled Population of 88,012 Subjects (https://www.cureus.com/articles/111851-regular-use-of-ivermectin-as-prophylaxis-for-covid-19-led-up-to-a-92-reduction-in-covid-19-mortality-rate-in-a-dose-response-manner-results-of-a-prospective-observational-study-of-a-strictly-controlled-population-of-88012-subjects?email_share=true&expedited_modal=true)
No surprise. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 12, 2022, 06:13:37 PM
Wait, so horse paste really was the answer all along???

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 12, 2022, 06:17:56 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 12, 2022, 06:13:37 PM
Wait, so horse paste really was the answer all along???


Apparently.    Lol. How would we know?   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 12, 2022, 06:30:37 PM
follow the science
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 12, 2022, 06:55:58 PM
the SCIENCE.

ZOMG THE SCIENCE!!!!!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 12, 2022, 07:52:24 PM
https://youtu.be/V83JR2IoI8k
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 15, 2022, 01:20:35 PM
This is interesting. My sons, who have been exposed but never had Covid, could be in this category.

Scientists are narrowing in on why some people keep avoiding Covid. BA.5 could end that luck. (nbcnews.com) (https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/why-people-keep-avoiding-covid-ba5-rcna39442)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 15, 2022, 02:38:13 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 15, 2022, 01:20:35 PM
This is interesting. My sons, who have been exposed but never had Covid, could be in this category.

Scientists are narrowing in on why some people keep avoiding Covid. BA.5 could end that luck. (nbcnews.com) (https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/why-people-keep-avoiding-covid-ba5-rcna39442)

It is interesting.  To our knowledge, me and my four siblings have not had Covid.   And we have tested for it dozens of times between us. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 19, 2022, 10:23:49 AM
We can all breath a deep sigh of relief as our Commander of Chief has declared the pandemic over

course it is about 5 months late but still

https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-biden-declares-the-pandemic-is-over?utm_campaign=64487
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 19, 2022, 11:12:22 AM
This is very long, but worthwhile, read. I'd actually call it a must-read.


The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19 pandemic - The Lancet (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)01585-9/fulltext)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 19, 2022, 11:20:28 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 10, 2022, 09:50:33 AM
https://www.wsj.com/articles/rushing-covid-vaccines-bivalent-pfizer-moderna-risk-harm-sickness-shots-pandemic-fda-skeptics-11662149144?st=hxx2yiiov90f5de&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Well,I'm gonna start watching Mr Ed reruns
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 25, 2022, 10:19:40 AM
https://www.dailywire.com/news/only-1-5-of-eligible-americans-have-gotten-new-covid-booster-cdc-data
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 25, 2022, 11:35:26 AM
I took a test, clearly negative.  Goofy instructions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2022, 03:21:27 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/aYhh1MF.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/MDUCpqI.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on September 26, 2022, 12:10:57 AM
Badger, your Fla. data is improving, and I am happy to see it. 
I am traveling this weekend to visit my folks, ages 88 and 90 in AZ. I will arrive at halftime of the Michigan-Iowa game. Not sure where they will be watching the game at, but I will have a camcorder going to see their reaction. Dad is battling and defeating leukemia for the most part. They have no idea I am coming.
I am going to get the BA4/5 specific vaccine mid-week (the 1st day it is available in my rural Iowa town), and wear an N95 mask in the airport and on the flight, as dad is especially vulnerable treating with chemotherapy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 26, 2022, 06:15:37 AM
My cold is lingering but staying in the medium range.  I took some Nyquil last night.

We all hope this blow stays west and doesn't strengthen so much as is predicted.  I wonder if "they" are tempted to exaggerate on occasion because in the past they missed on the other side of it.  I don't see much in the Atlantic right now so hopefully this is  the last real threat.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 26, 2022, 08:16:36 AM
weather folks exaggerate?!?!?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 24, 2022, 09:30:08 AM
A bit of an uptick, but that's to be expected as the population is growing every day as the snowbirds come back. I wish they would go home already. Tough to get a dinner reservation with them around.

(https://i.imgur.com/Ds6jsJD.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/7HgQP7H.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 24, 2022, 10:45:28 AM
My wife and I had the binary vaccine last week, no symptoms at all after.

We have two flights (four really) in November, seemed like a good precaution.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2022, 02:11:42 PM
I'll just leave this here.

Report An Analysis of the Origins of COVID-19 (senate.gov) (https://www.help.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/report_an_analysis_of_the_origins_of_covid-19_102722.pdf)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 03, 2022, 10:01:53 AM
Amnesty?

No.

Let’s Declare a Pandemic Amnesty - The Atlantic (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/10/covid-response-forgiveness/671879/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Temp430 on November 03, 2022, 10:06:15 AM
China did create it.  And letting it out of their lab might have been incompetence but letting it out of their country was intentional.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 06, 2022, 12:21:47 PM
I can't find data on this for the US, but Germany is interesting.

(https://i.imgur.com/Rp837PW.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 06, 2022, 12:24:51 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/dWinnYL.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/W3WIEyp.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 06, 2022, 12:26:12 PM
I would guess that vaccinated folks are at high risk.  That's why they get the shot in the first place.

Unvaccinated aren't so worried about getting COVID cause they're relatively healthy to begin with
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 10, 2022, 02:41:13 PM
https://fortune.com/2022/10/27/covid-symptoms-depend-on-how-many-vaccine-jabs-study-says/ (https://fortune.com/2022/10/27/covid-symptoms-depend-on-how-many-vaccine-jabs-study-says/)

The COVID symptoms you get depend on how many vaccine jabs you’ve had, major study says
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 10, 2022, 03:14:20 PM
Alrighty.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on November 10, 2022, 03:20:06 PM
Baseball coaches is meeting last night, because I tested positive for flu A and not for COVID, I was allowed to attend in person for reasons.  I was hoping to be able to not attend in person
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 10, 2022, 03:48:19 PM
Flu "A" thread coming
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 10, 2022, 03:56:42 PM
That would be AWESOME!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on November 10, 2022, 05:00:26 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 10, 2022, 03:48:19 PM
Flu "A" thread coming
Damn Canadians
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on November 14, 2022, 09:04:25 AM
I haven't flown since last December, are they still requiring masking on the planes?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 14, 2022, 09:08:01 AM
Nope.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 14, 2022, 09:12:54 AM
I had to look it up.
I haven't flown in 6 years - to Vegas for a conference
might have to fly to San Diego in February
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 14, 2022, 09:20:19 AM
Flying sucks again, as the flights are packed and are very expensive.

Flying during Covid the fear mongering period was fantastic. 

Empty planes and CHEAP.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 14, 2022, 09:23:39 AM
oh, forgot about my Xmas trip to Dallas/fort worth to see my brother

flying from Omaha to Love Field non-stop on Southwest on Fri. Dec. 23rd

any of use Texans want to get together to watch bowl games or play golf the week after Xmas, I'm available

returning on Fri. Dec. 30th
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 14, 2022, 09:40:48 AM
Flying to Chicago on Thanksgiving Day. Then we fly to Miami on November 30 for an 11-night cruise.

Flying to Chicago on December 30. Then we fly to Cabo on January 4, for a 10-night stay. Back to Chicago for one night, and then fly home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 14, 2022, 09:56:21 AM
doesn't appear our paths will cross
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 19, 2022, 09:01:32 AM
This is something. Free link.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-high-price-of-covid-learning-loss-naep-scores-pandemic-11668455273?st=yrrtbb5ok1fsn0d&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 19, 2022, 09:02:59 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/RCwsi6M.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/mMbGpTC.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on November 25, 2022, 01:39:51 AM
COVID-19 is on the rise in Iowa. Last week an elderly couple who are clients called and reported they were positive. This week they reported they had recovered. I had a hearing Tuesday Nov. 22, 2022, and the following day one of my witnesses reported that she tested negative to COVID-19 before the hearing and on Wednesday Nov. 23, 2022 tested positive. I had close contact so I wore an N-95 except when dining on T-Giving. So far I am asymptomatic. I might test Friday, but I am asymptomatic, and I think the home tests are not very accurate when one is asymptomatic.
I am not worried about me. I have had it 2x; asymptomatic the 1st time; the second time, just a few mild symptoms. I have been vaccinated 4x. I am 65, but fairly active.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 25, 2022, 08:29:45 AM
As has been said many times here, we're just going to have to live with it. Just a new cold now, to me, but if people want to wear masks and all that, I'm not gonna criticize. 

You do you, I do me, and so on.

Maybe 5 percent of the people in RSW had masks on yesterday. Probably in the 35-40 percent range in ORD. Definitely a difference depending on where you are in the country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 25, 2022, 08:30:49 AM
I haven't heard much about COVID in the NW corner of the state, but I don't get out much.

Football on TV and message board chats on the internet

super spreader event in Iowa City this afternoon?

I'm not going
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 25, 2022, 08:43:26 AM
Nobody really talks about it in SWFL. I heard the word more here yesterday than I have in probably a month back home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 25, 2022, 09:40:50 AM
We had a really nasty flu bug going around CenTex the past month. Type A.  This year's flu vaccine didn't target the correct strain.  It started with my daughter, because at least half of her 250-person marching band, got it.  Then she passed it to everyone in my house including me.  First time I've ever had the flu as far as I know, and although it wasn't pleasant, it was also wasn't the worst.  Main difference between it and COVID I had earlier this year, is that this flu has a lingering cough that took a couple weeks to diminish.

Anyway, some folks around here are back to masking up, but it's to avoid the flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 25, 2022, 10:12:42 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 25, 2022, 09:40:50 AM
We had a really nasty flu bug going around CenTex the past month. Type A.  This year's flu vaccine didn't target the correct strain.  It started with my daughter, because at least half of her 250-person marching band, got it.  Then she passed it to everyone in my house including me.  First time I've ever had the flu as far as I know, and although it wasn't pleasant, it was also wasn't the worst.  Main difference between it and COVID I had earlier this year, is that this flu has a lingering cough that took a couple weeks to diminish.

Anyway, some folks around here are back to masking up, but it's to avoid the flu.
Thats the one thing I dont miss about raising children

You will catch every illness known to man while raising children

My children left home over 15 years ago and we have not even had a cold since then
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 25, 2022, 10:24:56 AM
quarantined are ya?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 25, 2022, 10:26:06 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 25, 2022, 10:12:42 AM
Thats the one thing I dont miss about raising children

You will catch every illness known to man while raising children

My children left home over 15 years ago and we have not even had a cold since then
I used to call them mosquitos. Even if they didn't get sick, they brought it with them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 25, 2022, 10:55:49 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on November 25, 2022, 10:24:56 AM
quarantined are ya?
nope married
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 19, 2022, 01:54:24 PM
The holiday uptick has arrived in Florida. Probably also has something to do with the population doubling in the past month.

(GO HOME!! April can't come soon enough!!)

(https://i.imgur.com/eMv1YLI.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/GKbKtii.png)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 14, 2023, 12:49:55 PM
Ive been saying this for over a year

https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-leana-wen-slammed-admitting-theres-been-overcounting-covid-deaths-two-half-years-late
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 14, 2023, 04:03:13 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 14, 2023, 12:49:55 PM
Ive been saying this for over a year

https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-leana-wen-slammed-admitting-theres-been-overcounting-covid-deaths-two-half-years-late
Shocking.   NOT
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on January 17, 2023, 12:23:08 AM
Round 3 for me with COVID-19. I tested positive this morning.
This time I have no clear evidence where I picked it up. I see so few people, but I did spend an hour with an old friend who is about 250-miles from my home and who is 90-years old at his assisted living apartment 1/12/2022 after a hearing I traveled to. The nursing home is just down the hall from the assisted living apartments.
I suspect that is where I contracted it. I hope I didn't bring it in; I thoughtlessly did not wear a mask. But then none of the staff had one on either.
The spread in Delaware County Iowa where I live is "high" according to the regional newspaper. When I tried to call in the result of my rapid test, the response at my doctor's office is the Iowa Department of Public Health is no longer tracking spread. Not sure if the newspaper or CDC relies on hospitalization data, deaths, or other metric to determine the spread is "high."
(https://i.imgur.com/EUqeJuF.jpg)
(https://i.imgur.com/fpN3727.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 17, 2023, 01:58:46 AM
so what are your symptoms
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 17, 2023, 07:45:25 AM
hopefully a mild case = good luck

I'll be traveling the state this week.  I may get close to Delaware Co in Winthrop - meeting with East Buchanan Telephone

leaving this morning, Carroll, Harlan, Panora, overnight in Ottumwa, then North Liberty tomorrow and overnight in Mason City.

hopefully, the local medical folks and media are simply hyping the "spread is high" a bit.  I doubt I see many masks and I won't be wearing one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 17, 2023, 09:30:07 AM
I went ahead and got the lastest bivalent booster with my flu shot back in December, I did one in each arm.  No side effects from either one other than a sore arm, the  flu shot arm was slightly worse, but it cleared up after 18 hours or so.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on January 17, 2023, 10:59:32 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 17, 2023, 01:58:46 AM
so what are your symptoms
Headache, stuffiness, my internal thermostat is off, minor sweating, coughing, and sneezing, and tearfulness. I am not crying. My eyes are watering to the point of tears having to bewiped away. 

I had the bivalent vaccine in September. This is the worst of the three times I have had it. It might be a function of how long I was exposed, or my advancing age that makes this event the worst of the three. I don't really know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 17, 2023, 11:54:10 AM
There is a lot of information out there right now. Some "experts" are claiming that the boosters actually make the symptoms worse. 

Anecdotally, we've not had a booster since 10/2021.

Last time we had Covid, which was 8 months after the booster, there were no symptoms, other than being tired.  

We will not be getting any more shots, based on our experiences.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Temp430 on January 17, 2023, 12:37:10 PM
One family member home on break caught Covid19 just recently.  He was vaccinated with the Moderna product.  His sibling who got a Johnson & Johnson vaccine plus a Pfizer booster did not get Covid. Parents who received the Pfizer vaccines and boosters managed to stay Covid free also.  Breathing same air and in the same living spaces.  I did have some mild symptoms for a couple days but no fever and never tested positive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on January 18, 2023, 12:00:35 AM
I have had Pfizer and Moderna. My bivalent was Moderna. I am nowhere near seeking medical assistance, but this is much worse than I have had before.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on January 18, 2023, 12:02:03 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 17, 2023, 07:45:25 AM
hopefully a mild case = good luck

I'll be traveling the state this week.  I may get close to Delaware Co in Winthrop - meeting with East Buchanan Telephone

leaving this morning, Carroll, Harlan, Panora, overnight in Ottumwa, then North Liberty tomorrow and overnight in Mason City.

hopefully, the local medical folks and media are simply hyping the "spread is high" a bit.  I doubt I see many masks and I won't be wearing one.
Ordinarily I would invite you to lunch if you are this close to my office, but not this week. Let me know if you will be in our area, again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on January 18, 2023, 12:25:47 AM
I was a little creaky and had a headache after my latest booster, though running after getting it probably didn't help. 

Not notably bad, but also took a nap or two while working from home the day after. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on January 18, 2023, 12:39:25 AM
My wife had it last week.  Basically just worn out, and out of breath easily.  She said the worst part was that she was so physically exhausted, that she used almost no energy, but that because she didn't actually feel that sick, at the end of the day she wasn't tired. So she found herself to physically exhausted to do anything, but couldn't actually sleep either
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 18, 2023, 08:45:59 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on January 18, 2023, 12:02:03 AM
Ordinarily I would invite you to lunch if you are this close to my office, but not this week. Let me know if you will be in our area, again.
I'll be back


after you recover
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 18, 2023, 01:05:08 PM
Two of three kids were symptomatic / tested positive a little over a week ago. Suspect that they got it from the third kid who only showed mild symptoms and wasn't tested. None of the symptoms were severe for any. 

Luckily for me, this was all while they were at their mom's house, and all kids were asymptomatic / testing negative before I got them last Thurs. 

So far my wife and I seem to have avoided COVID. If we've ever had it, we were asymptomatic. Haven't taken any more boosters since the first booster (3rd shot total) at the very end of 2021. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 18, 2023, 01:14:23 PM
I got the 1st two both Pfizer,the rest have been Jim Beam
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2023, 01:32:34 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 18, 2023, 01:05:08 PM
Two of three kids were symptomatic / tested positive a little over a week ago. Suspect that they got it from the third kid who only showed mild symptoms and wasn't tested. None of the symptoms were severe for any.

Luckily for me, this was all while they were at their mom's house, and all kids were asymptomatic / testing negative before I got them last Thurs.

So far my wife and I seem to have avoided COVID. If we've ever had it, we were asymptomatic. Haven't taken any more boosters since the first booster (3rd shot total) at the very end of 2021.
Everyone has had it.

TWICE.


:57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 18, 2023, 01:40:11 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2023, 01:32:34 PM
Everyone has had it.

TWICE.


:57:
We're probably not too far off from this becoming true. :)

I know I had SOMETHING back in Spring 2020, because I had a persistent cough that lingered for 3-4 months, and I absolutely NEVER get a cough.  At the time, the persistent lingering cough was one of the hallmarks of the initial strains of COVID.

And then I tested positive for it in June 2022, very mild symptoms, just felt like allergies.

So, yeah, I'll go ahead and say I've had it twice. ;)


The flu I got in the first week of November, on the other hand, was pretty rough.  Sore, achy body, headaches, fever, chills, that all lasted several days.  I've always said I didn't think I'd ever had the flu, and now I know I was right (pre-Nov) because I've definitely never felt anything like that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2023, 01:41:32 PM
I'm predicting you will get it in June 2023.

;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 18, 2023, 01:52:22 PM
The flu? Sure hope not!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 18, 2023, 01:54:14 PM
I'd love to get it again.  Best sleep I've had in my adult life, got a week off work. 

No other symptoms other than severe congestion at night for the first couple nights.  

But MAN was that covid-sleep A++
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2023, 01:58:45 PM
General anesthesia is a much better sleep. That 8-hour spinal surgery I had was great.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 18, 2023, 02:03:00 PM
I don't count general anesthesia as "sleep." 

That's a medically-induced coma that an anesthesiologist/nurse anesthetist hopes they can pull you out of.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2023, 02:08:01 PM
Never failed so far. Probably been under 10+ times by now, for various amounts of time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on January 18, 2023, 02:15:02 PM
Quote from: MikeDeTiger on January 18, 2023, 01:54:14 PM
I'd love to get it again.  Best sleep I've had in my adult life, got a week off work. 

No other symptoms other than severe congestion at night for the first couple nights. 

But MAN was that covid-sleep A++
That was the worst part, my sleep was awful.  I felt like death for about 24 hours, and the body aches and chills kept me up.  Then I generally felt better, but the persistent cough kept me up.

Granted I'm a very light sleeper to begin with, to the point that I unplug everything in a hotel room, because even an unfamiliar fridge hum keeps me up
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 19, 2023, 10:34:18 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on January 18, 2023, 01:14:23 PM
I got the 1st two both Pfizer,the rest have been Jim Beam
same but with Johnny Walker black
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 19, 2023, 11:45:02 AM
Quote from: MikeDeTiger on January 18, 2023, 02:03:00 PM
I don't count general anesthesia as "sleep." 

That's a medically-induced coma that an anesthesiologist/nurse anesthetist hopes they can pull you out of. 
Can't beat the mellow state you wake up into
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 19, 2023, 11:46:56 AM
Quote from: ELA on January 18, 2023, 02:15:02 PM
That was the worst part, my sleep was awful.  I felt like death for about 24 hours, and the body aches and chills kept me up.  Then I generally felt better, but the persistent cough kept me up.
Have you tried Jim Beam or Johnny Walker? Both will set you up
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 19, 2023, 12:20:34 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2023, 02:08:01 PM
Never failed so far. Probably been under 10+ times by now, for various amounts of time.

5 for me. 

I'm wary of it because 1) anesthesia has a cumulative effect over a lifetime, the more times we're under, the greater risk we're at for memory loss/gaps in memory/learning retention problems, and 2) while every surgery/situation is different, in general it's by far the riskiest part of surgery.  If you read the fine print, they're pretty honest that if they put you under, they have no guarantees they can get you back.  We literally sign our life away in those forms we fill out.  

That said, it's still a minimal risk statistically speaking.  Never had problems, don't know anyone who has, and I have an old buddy and also a cousin's wife who are both anesthesiologists, and they've never had a problem with their patients that I know of.  Like most things, age and other health conditions change the risk factor quite a bit, and we have multiple patients either we as PCP or their cardiologists refuse to clear for surgery.  If PCPs or cardiology dropped the ball more, or surgeons didn't get clearances when warranted, we'd undoubtedly hear about failure to revive surgical patients more often.  

Safe as it is, I don't take it lightly.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 19, 2023, 12:21:16 PM
Quote from: ELA on January 18, 2023, 02:15:02 PM
That was the worst part, my sleep was awful.  I felt like death for about 24 hours, and the body aches and chills kept me up.  Then I generally felt better, but the persistent cough kept me up.

Granted I'm a very light sleeper to begin with, to the point that I unplug everything in a hotel room, because even an unfamiliar fridge hum keeps me up

Covid cheated you.  You should get it again and make it do it right.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 19, 2023, 12:34:11 PM
Quote from: MikeDeTiger on January 19, 2023, 12:20:34 PM
5 for me. 

I'm wary of it because 1) anesthesia has a cumulative effect over a lifetime, the more times we're under, the greater risk we're at for memory loss/gaps in memory/learning retention problems, and 2) while every surgery/situation is different, in general it's by far the riskiest part of surgery.  If you read the fine print, they're pretty honest that if they put you under, they have no guarantees they can get you back.  We literally sign our life away in those forms we fill out. 

That said, it's still a minimal risk statistically speaking.  Never had problems, don't know anyone who has, and I have an old buddy and also a cousin's wife who are both anesthesiologists, and they've never had a problem with their patients that I know of.  Like most things, age and other health conditions change the risk factor quite a bit, and we have multiple patients either we as PCP or their cardiologists refuse to clear for surgery.  If PCPs or cardiology dropped the ball more, or surgeons didn't get clearances when warranted, we'd undoubtedly hear about failure to revive surgical patients more often. 

Safe as it is, I don't take it lightly. 
After that 8 hour deal, it took a long time for me to be able to have a ... movement, shall we say. That was the worst part.

The longest one after that was about 2.5 hours for a failed back surgery. F that guy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 21, 2023, 08:03:26 AM
Things starting to settle down a little now. 


(https://i.imgur.com/pwYi8mw.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/cqRMDYS.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 21, 2023, 08:38:47 AM
I tested myself this week and came out negative, as I suspected.

We were in Cabo and I got really sick - worst I've felt in years and years. We were there 10 days and I spent 6 of them in bed. Messaged my doctor and he told me to go find a ZPAC, which is OTC in Mexico. Did that and it started to clear. Lungs, sinus, ears, eyes - all had stuff coming out/up. Brown stuff. Nasty.

Figured it wasn't Covid since the antibiotic worked.

Would much rather have Covid than what I went through down there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 21, 2023, 01:09:11 PM
FYI, in case anyone here doesn't know, we have anti-virals for covid now, similar to giving patients Tamiflu for the flu. 

Speaking of antibiotics, between the fact that prescribers have over-prescribed them for years and the fact that no new ones have been developed in forever, the general population is starting to become resistant to them.  This means that infections easily treated today are likely to be a life-threatening problem at some point.

Somebody pitch in some $ with me to get at least one new one developed, we'll be bazillionaires as soon as it hits the fan.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on January 23, 2023, 12:49:21 AM
I recovered completely for the 3rd time. While I am good at getting it, I am good at showing it the door, too. I have had COVID-19, once each year. My wife has never contracted it.
I think some people are more resistant to getting it. Science could learn something from studying people like us. When I have it, we meet in the kitchen occasionally. I am anxious when she walks right by me when I am standing over the stove. I usually try to wear a mask when I am near her when I have COVID-19, but that's a bit difficult to do all the time, especially when I am around food. I am more careful around my wife than she is around me. And, I know we slept in the same bed in the early course of this each time before I tested +, and thereafter slept on the sofa downstairs. But, I usually face my mug toward the alarm clock and away from her.
I am curious about the experience of others on here when one person in the family gets it -- are family members living with them getting it, as well?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on January 23, 2023, 07:19:00 AM
It is inconsistent at our house.  While my youngest has tested positive twice, my wife once, neither were at the same periods of time.   Meanwhile my oldest daughter and I have yet to test positive once.  We believe we have all had it but don't know with certainty.   We haven't done anything different in the house when we had the positive tests.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 23, 2023, 07:33:31 AM
Last year at Fantasy Camp, we had to wear a mask in the training room, no where else.  This year, no masks anywhere by anyone.  The hurricane damage was significant.

(I did see a few in public with masks.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 23, 2023, 07:56:09 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on January 23, 2023, 12:49:21 AM

I am curious about the experience of others on here when one person in the family gets it -- are family members living with them getting it, as well?
To our knowledge, my wife has had it once, while I've had 4. No precautions taken.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 23, 2023, 08:11:21 AM
My wife tested positive once, had minor symptoms, I never did, never had it that I know of, had a cold once, tested negative at home.  I wonder if some variant could be spreading around with such mild symptoms no one knows about it.

Maybe an elderly person would show enough to get tested.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on January 23, 2023, 06:41:07 PM
Judging from these posts, despite the contagiousness of so many COVID-19 variants it is not unusual that some household members don't contract it. Some of us must be really sensitive to getting it, and others not so much.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 24, 2023, 06:50:31 AM
That could be happenstance, not any real affinity or internal resistance.  It also could be some of us got it and didn't know it.  My wife barely knew she was somewhat ill, she was sneezing a lot and ran a fever briefly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 24, 2023, 08:03:54 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on January 23, 2023, 06:41:07 PM
Judging from these posts, despite the contagiousness of so many COVID-19 variants it is not unusual that some household members don't contract it. Some of us must be really sensitive to getting it, and others not so much. 
That's the thing. And we still don't know why, and never might.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 24, 2023, 08:23:14 AM
I have a quarantine idea and it starts with Brandon,Helosi & Hunter
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 24, 2023, 08:43:57 AM
One of my closest friends is named Brandon.  And he's a big-time Dem super-lib, total identity politics team-player.

I take great joy in telling him "Let's GO, Brandon" anytime we're headed somewhere together.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 24, 2023, 08:46:33 AM
Does he wear a face diaper while out for a run on a hot day?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 24, 2023, 08:48:53 AM
Not anymore but he definitely held onto the pandemic-related practices longer than many.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 24, 2023, 08:50:10 AM
I see some people doing that here now. Of course, they just arrived from NY, IL, MI, etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 24, 2023, 08:55:16 AM
At last night's boy scout meeting for my son's troop, we had the entire Webelo den from our associated cub scout pack in attendance.  They'll be moving up from cub scouts to boy scouts next month so this was kind of an introductory meeting, or even more accurately, a recruiting meeting.

So the parents and their boys were all in attendance, and one of the boys had a mask on, and so did both of his parents.  I realized just how unusual that is now, in my part of the country.  I occasionally see someone masked up at the grocery store or the Home Depot and whatnot, but to see an entire family all masked up was unusual.

Our town is very carefree so nobody considered it a big deal or even worth mentioning, but it was unusual for the current climate, and that's what struck me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 24, 2023, 09:04:11 AM
I noted some older folks in Florida wearing masks (outdoors).  I can understand they motivations even though I think it is a waste of effort.

Folks around here (home) tend to be younger, I rarely see anyone with a mask, indoors or out.  Have at it.  I understand it's common practice in many Asian societies evern before 2020.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 24, 2023, 09:48:44 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 24, 2023, 08:55:16 AM
to see an entire family all masked up was unusual.

would be interesting to know why?

Did someone in the family come down with symptoms recently, did someone test positive?
Trying to protect the group

or trying to protect themselves
anti-vaxers or just maskers

Be Prepared?
Do a Good Turn Daily?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 24, 2023, 10:09:53 AM
For some, it's a political statement, nothing else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 24, 2023, 10:21:42 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 24, 2023, 09:48:44 AM
would be interesting to know why?

Did someone in the family come down with symptoms recently, did someone test positive?
Trying to protect the group

or trying to protect themselves
anti-vaxers or just maskers

Be Prepared?
Do a Good Turn Daily?


I only spoke to them a little bit, but if I had to guess, I'd say they were probably being cautious, maybe have an older relative living with them?

Or maybe they all have really ugly mouths and masks have been the perfect way to hide that, over the past 3 years?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 24, 2023, 01:11:13 PM
We'll wear them if we know we're going to have to be near people and are exhibiting symptoms without the benefit of a negative test.  Which is basically never, and I don't think we've ever had to do it.  

And we'd do it for others, not to protect ourselves, which is all masks were ever supposed to do in the first place.  

They do have some level of effectiveness in slowing the spread.  Vaguely amuses me to see conservative media repeat that masks have been shown to be ineffective, as if they have zero impact.  Not the impact Fauci et al wanted us to believe, or even close.  But not zero impact.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 24, 2023, 09:02:17 PM
it's obviously not zero and not 100%

it would be nice to have good data as how effective at 6 feet for less than 30 seconds or some other real world situations

but, obviously there's no money to be made with that info
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 25, 2023, 08:04:06 AM
There are various studies on masking out there using different exposure types, generally they involve a lot of folks in presumably "normal" exposure situations or in hospitals, and the fidelity of masks being worn in that group can be suspect.  I've looked at a number of them and I THINK masks are very modestly effective at preventing transmission, e.g., given a thousand people in a situation, if ten are infected and wearing a mask, maybe they infect 25 people over a set time period, and unmasked folks infect 50.  Of course, the situations will vary a lot, so you need a large population to ferret out a smallish benefit.

As far as preventing a healthy person from contrating COVID, the figures are much closer to zero.  (I made up the 25 and 50 merely for illustration).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2023, 08:24:37 AM
The media ignored a very fateful event in the waning days of the Obama administration (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-media-ignored-a-very-fateful-event-in-the-waning-days-of-the-obama-administration/ar-AA16FZMi?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=f09a8bd2e212435e92662f5a697c84bb)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2023, 08:30:59 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 21, 2023, 08:38:47 AM
I tested myself this week and came out negative, as I suspected.

We were in Cabo and I got really sick - worst I've felt in years and years. We were there 10 days and I spent 6 of them in bed. Messaged my doctor and he told me to go find a ZPAC, which is OTC in Mexico. Did that and it started to clear. Lungs, sinus, ears, eyes - all had stuff coming out/up. Brown stuff. Nasty.

Figured it wasn't Covid since the antibiotic worked.

Would much rather have Covid than what I went through down there.
Maybe a coincidence, maybe not, but I got to thinking and my infection started just two days after being forced to wear a mask in Costco for 1.5 hours.

(Yes, they are still masking in Cabo)

Hmmm.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 25, 2023, 11:32:45 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 25, 2023, 08:04:06 AM
There are various studies on masking out there using different exposure types, generally they involve a lot of folks in presumably "normal" exposure situations or in hospitals, and the fidelity of masks being worn in that group can be suspect.  I've looked at a number of them and I THINK masks are very modestly effective at preventing transmission, e.g., given a thousand people in a situation, if ten are infected and wearing a mask, maybe they infect 25 people over a set time period, and unmasked folks infect 50.  Of course, the situations will vary a lot, so you need a large population to ferret out a smallish benefit.

As far as preventing a healthy person from contrating COVID, the figures are much closer to zero.  (I made up the 25 and 50 merely for illustration).

My understanding is within the 6ish foot distance rule, time is the most relevant factor.  The longer an infected person talks in the direction of someone, the more viral load the other person is breathing in.  

Contracting the virus is not a all-or-nothing event, viral load is very important.  i.e., someone may have breathed their covid cooties on you, but only for a few seconds, so you actually "get" it, but your immune system kicks it back before you ever even knew you had it.  Otoh, if they talk in your face for 10 minutes or 30 minutes, you've taken in a much greater viral load and may get sick.

This extends to how severely people get sick (and how they handle it depends on other health risks and factors, obviously).  Your body may handle covid the same each time, but if you contracted a small viral load, maybe you don't get too bad while you're sick.  Or if you take in a huge viral load, you may get very sick.  

Masks are intended to reduce the viral load spread, and have some effectiveness in that regard.  Whether or not it actually makes a difference depends on a ton of other variables.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 26, 2023, 07:05:08 AM
COVID-19 Is No Longer a Public Health Emergency | Time (https://time.com/6249841/covid-19-no-longer-a-public-health-emergency/)


“The former Milwaukee County chief medical examiner conducted a careful review of some 4,000 COVID-19 deaths reported during the pandemic there. His research revealed that nearly half had no link to COVID or in some cases only a “marginal” association, such as end stage cancer patients whose demise was possibly hastened by a few days or weeks, from catching the disease. An analysis of LA County and national data collected during the more recent waves of the highly contagious (but considerably less deadly) Omicron variants suggests that COVID-19 deaths are now likely being overcounted by at least fourfold. A newly published investigation from Denmark documented that, following the emergence of Omicron a year ago, an astonishing 65-75% of deaths officially attributed to COVID-19 have been merely incidental to the coronavirus, consistent with the above hypothetical exercise. Yet even if only half the currently reported deaths in the U.S. are not really caused by the virus, that would mean an actual daily COVID-19 toll of around 200, roughly the number dying during a bad flu season.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 26, 2023, 09:40:01 AM
The Downsides of Financial Incentives to Diagnose COVID | Opinion (newsweek.com) (https://www.newsweek.com/downsides-financial-incentives-diagnose-covid-opinion-1776181)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 26, 2023, 10:51:51 AM
Some of us were screaming about this at the top of the lungs the whole way through, just fyi.  

I've never been above telling people I told you so.  

I might have mentioned this here before, my uncle died in Louisiana during the pandemic, from a condition he'd struggled with for years, and was not even an exacerbation case.....he never tested + for covid in the hospital and never exhibited symptoms.  They still initially put covid for cause of death on his death certificate.  

That is, until my aunt pitched a fit and they changed it.  

I know just from being a peon in the medical community that shenanigans are serious if they're changing COD on a certificate.  If they know they're right about something, you don't change that because a grieving widow complains to you.  There are all kinds of penalties for falsifying something like that.  The fact they changed his COD tells me they knew they were full of it the first time around.

That's when my boss explained to me that hospitals get gub'ment $, allotted by number of deaths, so it's in their interest to have a lot of covid deaths.  

This is, of course, one isolated incident, and we're talking about Louisiana, where even the alligators are corrupt.  Still, if you believe that wasn't happening everywhere, I have some beautiful beachfront property in Utah I will let go for a sweet price.    
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 26, 2023, 11:39:27 AM
I think it's safe to assume that it was rampant, and everywhere.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 26, 2023, 12:32:16 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 26, 2023, 11:39:27 AM
I think it's safe to assume that it was rampant, and everywhere.
I think its still happening

Data reflects over 15,000 perople in the US have died from covid in the last 4 weeks

I dont believe it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 26, 2023, 01:07:30 PM
I'm sure it's still going on. The state of emergency needs to end. It's not that anymore, and it hasn't been for well over a year, at least.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 26, 2023, 01:09:58 PM
Quote from: MikeDeTiger on January 26, 2023, 10:51:51 AM
Some of us were screaming about this at the top of the lungs the whole way through, just fyi. 

I've never been above telling people I told you so. 
I knew something was askew when by the end of January of 2020 everyone knew there was some sort of Pox about. By March Big Pharma(Pfizer,Moderna,BioNTECH) where advertising their wares "Studies have shown the effectiveness of out vaccine....". I'm thinking really? The same studies that were suppose to take 7 years for clearance - or used to. Don't piss down our backs and tell us it's raining. I'll bet half of capitol hill had money in them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 26, 2023, 01:19:16 PM
All of you fools can enjoy your echo chamber here, but keep in mind that it's only the slightest bit warranted post the 2nd summer of it, okay?  
The novelty of it made it vital to be extra cautious and producing the vaccines in a quicker, alternate way did save lives.  
.
My takeaway from the whole damn thing is that this was a relatively mild practice run on how we fare vs. pandemics and we failed in every conceivable way.  
It's not a right vs wrong or political thing, it's a total failure of preparedness, response, and attitude.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 26, 2023, 01:22:36 PM
Estimating under-recognized COVID-19 deaths, United States, march 2020-may 2021 using an excess mortality modelling approach - The Lancet Regional Health – Americas (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanam/article/PIIS2667-193X(21)00011-9/fulltext)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 26, 2023, 01:28:41 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on January 26, 2023, 01:09:58 PM
I knew something was askew when by the end of January of 2020 everyone knew there was some sort of Pox about. By March Big Pharma(Pfizer,Moderna,BioNTECH) where advertising their wares "Studies have shown the effectiveness of out vaccine....". I'm thinking really? The same studies that were suppose to take 7 years for clearance - or used to. Don't piss down our backs and tell us it's raining. I'll bet half of capitol hill had money in them

Do you mean Jan. 2021, around the time the vaccines came out?  

They're obviously flubbing, but my guess is they're basing it on the fact the mRNA "technology" used in the vaccines was not "new."  They've been testing that for a number of years now, its end-to-end process and effectiveness was not an unknown.  But it had not yet been used in the revolution/update of any existing vaccines, for whatever reasons.  I'm guessing that's what they meant when referring to "studies" and "effectiveness".....assuming they weren't outright lying.  

That said, there is no substitute for real-world use over a period of years.  It's tempting to say "no substitute for valid clinical trials" but drugs, etc. get recalled all the time for stuff that made it through clinical trials, and oops, looks like it's killing people with conditions X, Y, or Z, let's not sell that anymore.  

I'm not an anti-vaxxer, btw.  Far from it.*  But I do think the rush to crown the covid vaccines as must-have, can't-miss, this will save us all, you must inject this into your body and your employees, was medically unwarranted, not to mention a serious gub'ment overreach.  


*If I had a stance on the covid vax it would be that it significantly reduces risk of needing hospitalization and/or death, but that it's kinda crap at reducing your chances of actually getting it.  ymmv.  I'm not a scientist or a medical professional.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 26, 2023, 01:35:00 PM
Hindsight. I wish I had not gotten it. Didn't do anything to help me - I made it through Covid twice without it, and twice with it. The first one was rough, but that's when it first came out and was more lethal. There was no testing and there were no obvious treatment plans at that time.

Anyway, I had vaccine side effects I didn't like. Those are gone now - been 16 months since I took a shot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 26, 2023, 01:44:30 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 26, 2023, 01:19:16 PM
All of you fools can enjoy your echo chamber here, but keep in mind that it's only the slightest bit warranted post the 2nd summer of it, okay? 
The novelty of it made it vital to be extra cautious and producing the vaccines in a quicker, alternate way did save lives. 
.
My takeaway from the whole damn thing is that this was a relatively mild practice run on how we fare vs. pandemics and we failed in every conceivable way. 
It's not a right vs wrong or political thing, it's a total failure of preparedness, response, and attitude.

I mostly agree with this.

Even though I evolved my view on all this over time (I mean, I think that's the right thing to do.....more data comes in....my opinion might need to change), I started out in the mega-cautious camp.  We really did have no idea what this thing could/would do when it hit.  There's also something called a cytokine storm that was a major risk factor for the general population even if we always knew the new virus wasn't very bad, just due it's novelty, as you say.  

I was okay with precautions and changing some things for a while.  I just quickly started disagreeing with how various states/local authorities handled many things, and still continue to.  

I don't remember how long it took me to roll my eyes at the whole thing and wish everybody would settle down about it, but it was prior to the end of 2020.  The doc I work for happens to also be our county health authority and she dumps all her 2nd job crap on us sometimes, so I got a continually updated look at the CDC info and stats from our area.  Plus I got to watch our patients of all different ages with various types of diseases respond to covid when they got it.  That's hardly the sample size you're looking for when doing any real research, but it was enough for me to quit worrying about it fairly early on.  Inasmuch as I don't worry about the flu, I mean.  Not saying it's not a real thing with disastrous consequences for some people.  My aunt died of the damn thing, I'd probably still have her today if she'd gotten the stoopid vaccine.  She was high-risk, tho.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 26, 2023, 02:08:14 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 26, 2023, 01:19:16 PM
All of you fools can enjoy your echo chamber here, but keep in mind that it's only the slightest bit warranted post the 2nd summer of it, okay? 
The novelty of it made it vital to be extra cautious and producing the vaccines in a quicker, alternate way did save lives. 
.
My takeaway from the whole damn thing is that this was a relatively mild practice run on how we fare vs. pandemics and we failed in every conceivable way. 
It's not a right vs wrong or political thing, it's a total failure of preparedness, response, and attitude.
youre missing our whole point 

there is a difference between dying with covid and dying from covid

the health authorities dont seem to know this even now
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 26, 2023, 03:11:23 PM
Quote from: MikeDeTiger on January 26, 2023, 01:28:41 PM
Do you mean Jan. 2021, around the time the vaccines came out?
no I mean 2020 there were some snake oil being bantered about they were releasing. My neighbors did some unconventional  practice/procedure that actually seemed to work.I've never had it but I can only recall getting the flu once as an adult,so....... I got it from staying with mom in the hospital after she broke her hip I was there with siblings rotating everyday for weeks. I'd recommend Mr Beam's elixir to anyone who would listen & give it a try
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 26, 2023, 03:24:04 PM
Quote from: MikeDeTiger on January 26, 2023, 01:28:41 PM
I'm not an anti-vaxxer, btw.  Far from it.*  But I do think the rush to crown the covid vaccines as must-have, can't-miss, this will save us all, you must inject this into your body and your employees, was medically unwarranted, not to mention a serious gub'ment overreach. 
neither am I but Big Pharma and their investors pushed the panic button to meet their bottom line as much as to beat the virus
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 26, 2023, 03:57:05 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 26, 2023, 01:19:16 PM
All of you fools can enjoy your echo chamber here, but keep in mind that it's only the slightest bit warranted post the 2nd summer of it, okay? 
The novelty of it made it vital to be extra cautious and producing the vaccines in a quicker, alternate way did save lives. 
.
My takeaway from the whole damn thing is that this was a relatively mild practice run on how we fare vs. pandemics and we failed in every conceivable way. 
It's not a right vs wrong or political thing, it's a total failure of preparedness, response, and attitude.
You are in your own echo chamber and refuse to adapt to new data, information, the reality that we have been lied to since January 2020, etc.

Then there are those of us who do adapt, do research, sift and winnow, change opinions, think for ourselves, etc.

Example: I thought having spring break 2020 was irresponsible. Turns out it was a bunch of healthy people, outside, in a warm and humid environment.

In 2023 (actually early 2021) I can say I was wrong.

See how this works?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 26, 2023, 03:57:44 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on January 26, 2023, 03:24:04 PM
neither am I but Big Pharma and their investors pushed the panic button to meet their bottom line as much as to beat the virus
They got one of those right.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 26, 2023, 04:19:52 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/TPdMZzL.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 26, 2023, 04:26:45 PM
I don't wish I hadn't got the first two shots

didn't help me, cause I didn't get COVID until a year or better later

didn't hurt me either.  No side affects and was a free shot

that said, I won't be getting any boosters unless something changes drastically 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 26, 2023, 06:16:42 PM
That's me.

Wife and I got covid about 6 months after the vax.  At the time, 6 months was thought to perhaps be the limit of the Moderna and Pfizer versions' effectiveness, though no one really knew.  And as my medical wife is always wont to tell me, there's so many factors in play that it's not as simple as "how long does it last?" even if years of data have been piled up.  Turns out the body is super complicated.  Who knew.  (fyi, the vax may have helped you, even if you didn't get the virus until a year later.  Or it may not have helped you.  There's no solid answer on that and anybody who says otherwise is fooling themselves.)

Anyway, we did more than fine but we'll never know how much was benefit of the vax and how much was just we're sort of young and have no exacerbating risk factors mixed with our immune systems' natural response. 

At the time I felt like we had pretty good reasons to get it when it came out, largely having to do with for our patient's sake since we're in close contact with elderly people with conditions so much.  We thought we were reducing their chances of getting infected by us, and in a way that was probably true.  Never got any boosters, tho, and don't plan on it. 

I'll tell you this--I'd be lying if I said it didn't make me nervous at the time.  It was offered to medical personnel first, probably for that very reason, and because I'm a pencil pusher who works at a clinic I qualify as medical personnel.  So we got it just as it was coming out, before anybody in our area.  Me not being the medical brain my boss or my wife is, I was very apprehensive about it and I basically did it because they had kept on top of the developments and felt confident in the safety of the vaccines.  If not for their comfortability with it I doubt I'd have ever gotten vax'd.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 26, 2023, 06:32:30 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 26, 2023, 03:57:05 PM
You are in your own echo chamber and refuse to adapt to new data, information, the reality that we have been lied to since January 2020, etc.

Then there are those of us who do adapt, do research, sift and winnow, change opinions, think for ourselves, etc.

Example: I thought having spring break 2020 was irresponsible. Turns out it was a bunch of healthy people, outside, in a warm and humid environment.

In 2023 (actually early 2021) I can say I was wrong.

See how this works?
He also refuses to admit when he is wrong- like on everything related to Covid.

and saying it wasn’t politics- nuts.  That’s ALL it was.  Still is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 26, 2023, 09:19:25 PM
Quote from: MikeDeTiger on January 26, 2023, 06:16:42 PM
That's me.


I'll tell you this--I'd be lying if I said it didn't make me nervous at the time.  It was offered to medical personnel first
I waited a while

I wasn't nervous when I got the jab, but would have been if had been one of the first

I have no reservations about some vax issues years down the road a Tall
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 27, 2023, 07:02:03 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on January 26, 2023, 03:24:04 PM
neither am I but Big Pharma and their investors pushed the panic button to meet their bottom line as much as to beat the virus
Pfizer has not done all that well in the stock market.  Moderna has, this was its sole product (almost).  Their stock symbol is MRNA.  

When testing vaccine efficacy, it takes a long time when the disease is rare, and much shorter when "nearly everyone has it" for obvious reasons.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 27, 2023, 07:04:25 AM
NIH didn't track U.S. funds going to Chinese virus research, watchdog finds (yahoo.com) (https://news.yahoo.com/extremely-disconcerting-nih-didnt-track-us-funds-going-to-chinese-virus-research-watchdog-finds-004808475.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 27, 2023, 10:48:49 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 26, 2023, 03:57:05 PM


Example: I thought having spring break 2020 was irresponsible. Turns out it was a bunch of healthy people, outside, in a warm and humid environment.


Well in theory I agree that it shouldn't be all that dangerous for transmission, but then again, when you think about what occurs during Spring Break...

(https://i.imgur.com/EoS8I1f.png)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 27, 2023, 11:05:39 AM
Who doesn't like butt-flavored beer?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 27, 2023, 11:42:22 AM
Pretty sure COVID would be the thing I'd be least worried about transmission there. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 27, 2023, 11:48:18 AM
Who thinks of doing shit like that? Seriously?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 27, 2023, 12:04:29 PM
college students

probably not in the engineering college
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 27, 2023, 12:06:13 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 27, 2023, 07:04:25 AM
NIH didn't track U.S. funds going to Chinese virus research, watchdog finds (yahoo.com) (https://news.yahoo.com/extremely-disconcerting-nih-didnt-track-us-funds-going-to-chinese-virus-research-watchdog-finds-004808475.html)
how much of the trillions flowing through the federal government really gets tracked?
Especially funds sent overseas
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 27, 2023, 12:34:05 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 26, 2023, 02:08:14 PM
youre missing our whole point

there is a difference between dying with covid and dying from covid

the health authorities dont seem to know this even now
That's an obvious point and giving health-care providers a financial incentive yields predicable actions.  Duh.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 27, 2023, 12:38:11 PM
We had precisely the wrong leader in power when this thing hit.  Completely independent of his politics or who he is as a person, when his sole message early on is "it'll go away," everyone who would eventually be hit hard by this thing was fucked.
.
Secondly, there needed to be a clear message in the 2nd summer of it that if you're under the age of 60, relax.  Maybe wear a mask on a crowded subway or something.
As it was (and actually still is in some places), we have people driving around alone, wearing a mask.  We have local ordinances requiring a mask while walking outside or at a park.
Idiocy.  Lunacy.
.
The bad thing when both "sides" are very wrong about something, they both get to point to the other and score points.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 27, 2023, 12:40:23 PM
we've learned nothing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 27, 2023, 12:43:43 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 27, 2023, 12:38:11 PM
We had precisely the wrong leader in power when this thing hit.  Completely independent of his politics or who he is as a person, when his sole message early on is "it'll go away," everyone who would eventually be hit hard by this thing was fucked.
.
Secondly, there needed to be a clear message in the 2nd summer of it that if you're under the age of 60, relax.  Maybe wear a mask on a crowded subway or something.
As it was (and actually still is in some places), we have people driving around alone, wearing a mask.  We have local ordinances requiring a mask while walking outside or at a park.
Idiocy.  Lunacy.
.
The bad thing when both "sides" are very wrong about something, they both get to point to the other and score points.
Who would have been the right leader?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 27, 2023, 12:44:34 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 27, 2023, 12:04:29 PM
college students

probably not in the engineering college
The pot-belied dude on the right might be an engineer.  Pretty likely that nobody else in those pictures is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 27, 2023, 12:46:18 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 27, 2023, 12:40:23 PM
we've learned nothing
Eh, I think we've learned a lot.

Will we actually implement logical actions based on any of those learnings the next time a bug comes along?  I have my doubts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 27, 2023, 12:49:02 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 27, 2023, 12:44:34 PM
The pot-belied dude on the right might be an engineer.  Pretty likely that nobody else in those pictures is.
Engineering students don't have time to eat or drink.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 27, 2023, 12:50:24 PM
I think for many trust in government took a large hit, and hasn't recovered.  I recall distinctly how scary it was early on with so many unknowns.  We here were searching for reliable information on this thread.  Then it turned political, which could be expected.

Having so many unknowns gives rise to all sorts of "theories", some of which could be right.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 27, 2023, 12:54:03 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 27, 2023, 12:50:24 PM
I think for many trust in government took a large hit, and hasn't recovered.  I recall distinctly how scary it was early on with so many unknowns.  We here were searching for reliable information on this thread.  Then it turned political, which could be expected.

Having so many unknowns gives rise to all sorts of "theories", some of which could be right.


We would know a whole lot more if China and the funding agencies were honest. They are still lying to us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 27, 2023, 01:01:11 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 27, 2023, 12:43:43 PM
Who would have been the right leader?
Anyone who would have taken it seriously and didn't send the message that went against all science, logic, and math.  
You.
Me.
Nearly anyone.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 27, 2023, 01:05:19 PM
While I agree the degree of risk was minimized quite early, it didn't last very long, as I recall.  I'm not sure Trump's comments early on had any impact on how it was handled.  Verbiage is usually just that, sound and fury.

I look more at actions.

Nancy Pelosi - Chinatown - February 24, 2020 - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmllqkU6j2k)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 27, 2023, 01:16:14 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 27, 2023, 01:05:19 PM
While I agree the degree of risk was minimized quite early, it didn't last very long, as I recall.  I'm not sure Trump's comments early on had any impact on how it was handled.  Verbiage is usually just that, sound and fury.

I look more at actions.

Nancy Pelosi - Chinatown - February 24, 2020 - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmllqkU6j2k)
As do I.


Biden to regulate travel from China after previously calling Trump xenophobic | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/president-regulate-travel-china-after-he-called-trump-xenophobic)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 27, 2023, 01:56:12 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 27, 2023, 12:43:43 PM
Who would have been the right leader?
Correct 3yrs back in January that scarecrow Helosi was in S.F.'s China Town hobknobbing with the merchants telling them everyone & thing was alright. As Trump was announcing the government should shutdown west coast ports because of the incoming virus from China. Then the spawn of satan nancy  rails on about trump calling him racist against Chinese and inducing panic. Of course 3 weeks later she howled how hewas dragging his feet as she tried blocking the very thing he warned about. I did not vote for trump but her and her political pals haven't improved anything
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 27, 2023, 01:57:52 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 27, 2023, 12:49:02 PM
Engineering students don't have time to eat or drink.
next thing you'll tell us not to watch football either...or tailgate
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 27, 2023, 02:01:54 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 27, 2023, 12:38:11 PM
We had precisely the wrong leader in power when this thing hit.  Completely independent of his politics or who he is as a person, when his sole message early on is "it'll go away," everyone who would eventually be hit hard by this thing was fucked.
.
Secondly, there needed to be a clear message in the 2nd summer of it that if you're under the age of 60, relax.  Maybe wear a mask on a crowded subway or something.
As it was (and actually still is in some places), we have people driving around alone, wearing a mask.  We have local ordinances requiring a mask while walking outside or at a park.
Idiocy.  Lunacy.
.
The bad thing when both "sides" are very wrong about something, they both get to point to the other and score points.


Most everything that affected our daily lives was done at the state and local levels.  If the federal government was in charge of how shutdowns happened, how long they lasted, masking protocols, etc., we wouldn't have seen such disparity in how the states handled it.  People on both sides blamed and still blame the feds more than they are actually involved.  Which is not to say the presidents had and have no effect.  It's just wrong to assign everything that happens to him/them.

Also, you're still talking like wearing a mask is for the wearer's protection.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 27, 2023, 02:02:24 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 19, 2020, 11:03:24 AM
Just back from Costco, they were fully stocked, a bit crowded but managing well.  They had TP that everyone I saw picked up but us.

It was going fast, they had a stack in front of the store.

Premium gas was $1.88.  Premium.
Note date ,,,
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 27, 2023, 02:05:54 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 13, 2020, 08:30:24 AM
I've got Amazon delivering 16 pallets of toilet paper to my home this afternoon, so I'm good.

As far as sports, if you consider them such, Indycar and NASCAR will both be running this weekend, with no fans in attendance.  I'm actually more of a Forumla1 fan, but they've canceled this weekend's season opening race that was supposed to occur in Australia.  Since the next few races beyond that are in Bahrain, Vietnam, and China, I'm assuming the entire first 20% of the season will be canceled.


Still got like 12 pallets?

(Note date)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 27, 2023, 02:18:26 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 27, 2023, 12:46:18 PM
Eh, I think we've learned a lot.

Will we actually implement logical actions based on any of those learnings the next time a bug comes along?  I have my doubts.

Depends on how much you think the whole thing got co-opted into a giant social experiment.  

Call me a conspiracy theorist all you want, when the Canadian PM says in a press conference that we need to use the pandemic to key The Great Reset, and WEF Davos nincompoops prattle on and on about their maneuverings during the pandemic and their plans going forward, I don't see the harm in listening to them.  

When people tell you they're going to hurt you, listen to them.  

I have a number of friends who are far more left-leaning than me who snicker at me if I ever use the term Great Reset or bring up Klaus Shwab and his buddies.  They think I am the looniest of loons.

I'm like "BRUH....the man wrote a book telling you what he did and what he wants to do.  Why insist this is insane-asylum conspiracy ravings?  Maybe read this actual book that exists in real life, and when he talks about using the pandemic and learning from it to take away all your stuff and your freedoms, I dunno.....consider believing him.  Cuz I like my stuff and my freedom."  

https://www.amazon.com/COVID-19-Great-Reset-Klaus-Schwab/dp/2940631123/ref=sr_1_3?crid=3APED2QM64KSR&keywords=klaus+schwab&qid=1674845688&s=books&sprefix=klaus+schwab%2Cstripbooks%2C130&sr=1-3

You know, I just noticed it was published in July 2020.  That's 1) pretty quick to be writing a book all about how to handle things and restructure the world considering "we" were still supposed to be in the early stages of data-gathering,  2) to the extent he would know anything, it's enough to make me think he had this thing written and waiting to go already.  

Anyway, it's an "interesting" read, I value it in the same way I value Alinsky's "Rules For Radicals," in that it's like stealing your opponent's playbook. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 27, 2023, 02:18:45 PM
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 15, 2020, 02:16:16 AM

More news from China

执㝧执瑩浻牡楧㩮㔱硰执㝧执獧浻牡楧敬瑦瀰絸朣杢㑳执獧扻捡杫潲湵潣潬㩲昣昸昸㬸慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧敷止瑩札慲楤湥楬敮牡氬晥⁴潴敬瑦戠瑯潴牦浯㡦㡦㡦潴捥捥捥戻捡杫潲湵浩条㩥眭扥楫楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散戻捡杫潲湵浩条㩥洭穯氭湩慥牧摡敩瑮琨灯㡦㡦㡦捥捥捥㬩慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧獭氭湩慥牧摡敩瑮琨灯㡦㡦㡦捥捥捥㬩慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散戻捡杫潲湵浩u条㩥楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散汩整㩲牰杯摩䐺䥘慭敧牔湡晳牯楍牣獯景牧摡敩瑮猨慴瑲潃潬卲牴昣昸昸䔬摮潃潬卲牴攣散散㬩潢摲牥硰猠汯摩⌠㙣㙣㙣搻獩汰祡戺潬正潭潢摲牥爭摡畩㩳瀲㭸漭戭牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰敷止瑩戭牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰戻牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰执獧搴摻獩汰祡戺潬正瀻獯瑩潩㩮敲慬楴敶执獧搴筮楤灳慬㩹湩楬敮戭潬正漻敶晲潬
 朣楢琴执㝧执瑩浻牡楧㩮㔱硰执㝧执獧浻牡楧敬瑦瀰絸朣杢㑳执獧扻捡杫潲湵潣潬㩲昣昸昸㬸慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧敷止瑩札慲楤湥楬敮牡氬晥⁴潴敬瑦戠瑯潴牦浯㡦㡦㡦潴捥捥捥戻捡杫潲湵浩条㩥眭扥楫楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散戻捡杫潲湵浩条㩥洭穯氭湩慥牧摡敩瑮琨灯㡦㡦㡦捥捥捥㬩慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧獭氭湩慥牧摡敩瑮琨灯㡦㡦㡦捥捥捥㬩慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散戻捡杫潲湵浩u条㩥楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散汩整㩲牰杯摩䐺䥘慭敧牔湡晳牯楍牣獯景牧摡敩瑮猨慴瑲潃潬卲牴昣昸昸䔬摮潃潬卲牴攣散散㬩潢摲牥硰猠汯摩⌠㙣㙣㙣搻獩汰祡戺潬正潭潢摲牥爭摡畩㩳瀲㭸漭戭牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰敷止瑩戭牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰戻牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰执獧搴摻

If I hear anything else,  I’ll let you know.




Keep us posted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 27, 2023, 02:20:07 PM
Quote from: bayareabadger on March 15, 2020, 12:08:55 AM
To avoid that, trust Anthony Fauci.
Oof.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 27, 2023, 02:22:52 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 17, 2020, 06:30:12 PM
I think we will see recovery begin by June or so. GDP will be down this year, but the economy doesn't have any fundamental flaws. We need to stay strong, optimistic and vigilant. This shall pass.
:)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 27, 2023, 02:24:20 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 27, 2023, 12:34:05 PM
That's an obvious point and giving health-care providers a financial incentive yields predicable actions.  Duh.
glad you agree


my job here is done
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 27, 2023, 03:14:50 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 27, 2023, 02:20:07 PM
Oof.

Are you amusing yourself?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 27, 2023, 03:16:26 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 27, 2023, 02:05:54 PM
Still got like 12 pallets?

(Note date)

Nah I sold almost everything off at 100% profit and invested heavily in bitcoin.

I still have 2 or 3 pallets though. Need some?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 27, 2023, 03:26:29 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 27, 2023, 03:14:50 PM
Are you amusing yourself?
Hehe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 27, 2023, 03:40:12 PM
Who here thinks Sweden had the right approach?

Who thinks the "area under the curve model" is roughly accurate?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 27, 2023, 03:40:31 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 22, 2020, 02:28:08 PM
There are conspiracy theorists asserting this is the end-game of our current president...
They were right...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 27, 2023, 03:41:01 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 27, 2023, 03:40:12 PM
Who here thinks Sweden had the right approach?

Who thinks the "area under the curve model" is roughly accurate?


Yes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 27, 2023, 04:13:09 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 27, 2023, 03:40:12 PM
Who here thinks Sweden had the right approach?

Who thinks the "area under the curve model" is roughly accurate?


When Sweden initiated its strategy we were still under the thumb of the original covid and had it not mutated into a relatively harmless variety it could have gone much differently

We did not beat covid

it beat itself
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 27, 2023, 05:28:31 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 27, 2023, 12:46:18 PM
Will we actually implement logical actions based on any of those learnings the next time a bug comes along?  I have my doubts.
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 27, 2023, 01:05:19 PM
While I agree the degree of risk was minimized quite early, it didn't last very long, as I recall.  I'm not sure Trump's comments early on had any impact on how it was handled.  Verbiage is usually just that, sound and fury.

I look more at actions.

Nancy Pelosi - Chinatown - February 24, 2020 - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmllqkU6j2k)
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 27, 2023, 01:16:14 PM
As do I.


Biden to regulate travel from China after previously calling Trump xenophobic | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/president-regulate-travel-china-after-he-called-trump-xenophobic)
We've learned nothing
it's a damn shame
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 27, 2023, 06:58:08 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 27, 2023, 03:40:31 PM
They were right...
About what?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 27, 2023, 06:58:41 PM
I think China is currently proving out the area under the curve.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 27, 2023, 07:19:08 PM
Quote from: MikeDeTiger on January 27, 2023, 02:01:54 PM

Most everything that affected our daily lives was done at the state and local levels.  If the federal government was in charge of how shutdowns happened, how long they lasted, masking protocols, etc., we wouldn't have seen such disparity in how the states handled it. 
I understand that, but while what the president says doesn't dictate state/local action, it does influence the opinions of citizens.
When there were like 15 cases, having an utter dipshit saying that number has peaked and will decrease down to zero and it'll just "go away" causes a % of the population to be woefully ill-informed.  Those people will build on such misinformation in the following years, creating an army of ignorant, vocal people who are not helpful. 
.
I'll never understand people who defend a person so ignorant (not saying you are). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 27, 2023, 07:40:12 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 27, 2023, 07:19:08 PM
I understand that, but while what the president says doesn't dictate state/local action, it does influence the opinions of citizens.
When there were like 15 cases, having an utter dipshit saying that number has peaked and will decrease down to zero and it'll just "go away" causes a % of the population to be woefully ill-informed.  Those people will build on such misinformation in the following years, creating an army of ignorant, vocal people who are not helpful. 
.
I'll never understand people who defend a person so ignorant (not saying you are). 
Why not.  It’s the woketard playbook.    You just laid out exactly what the high level politicians did- Cuomo, Pelosi, Schumer, the dipshit mayors of NYC and Frisco, the list goes on and on.  And they all proved it when caught on camera when they didn’t know it.  And all of it facilitated by the MSM they control, and Social media.

And Play number 1 in the playbook is your post- accuse the  “other side” for exactly what you yourself are doing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 27, 2023, 07:43:32 PM
You're right, and I said both sides were wrong.  But none of the people you listed were the president of the country.  Only 1 of those at a time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 27, 2023, 08:26:05 PM
I think many countries around the globe have shown that it really didn't matter what president was behind the podium when the virus hit

was gonna be a shit show
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 01:17:12 AM
So making demonstrably incorrect statements....meh.
Telling people no to get tested to keep the positive case total artificially low....meh.
Pressuring the CDC to make statements they knew weren't accurate....meh.
.
I give up.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2023, 07:57:27 AM
I read back over a lot of our early postings yesterday.  "We" (and they) just didn't know very much at the time.  Sure, the politicization was unfortunate, but frankly, nobody anywhere handled this remarkably well.  As noted above, COVID was going to do its thing regardless.  We had the myth the vaccine would stop it in its tracks despite many noting the virus would mutate.  We had the early myth you could get it from food and hard surfaces.

As for who would have handled it better, I agree with the above comment that COVID was going to do its thing no matter what "we" did about it beyond perhaps changing the shape of the curve.  Germany was held out as a model to emulate but they have not done well either.  China, well, they did "flatten the curve" for a while.

What I learned I think is to protect the elderly and vulnerable as well as possible and then carry on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 28, 2023, 08:23:27 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 01:17:12 AM
So making demonstrably incorrect statements....meh.
Telling people no to get tested to keep the positive case total artificially low....meh.
Pressuring the CDC to make statements they knew weren't accurate....meh.
.
I give up. 
what politician from any country wasn't making incorrect statements?

positive case number - high or low or accurate - what difference does it make?

hah, the CDC was making plenty statements they knew weren't accurate on their own
______________
as we've seen around the world with a vast array of different leaders and styles, the virus was going to work out about the same regardless of political messaging
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 28, 2023, 08:26:08 AM
you may think Trump killed a bunch of people and that Obama or some liberal may have saved more

as has been mentioned - local and state leaders had a bigger impact

sending COVID patients back to nursing homes in NYC from hospitals had a more direct impact on deaths
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2023, 08:33:24 AM
It's easier in this world to assign blame (or credit) monotonically of course.  Something bad happens, it's the fault of "X".  The fact is, a bad thing usually is the fault of many, or even no one.  But "we" like simply fault assignments.  My team lost because of "X".  It simplifies life, it's too hard to mention A, B, C, D, ..., so it's just focusing on "X".

And of course, when some politician is reviled, it's standard to assign fault to him or her uniquely and ignore anything else that may complicate that picture.  Why are we seeing inflation?  It's the fault of Biden, or Trump, or Pelosi, take your pick depending on how you lean.  Why did Russia attack Ukraine?  Biden's fault, or Trump's, etc.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 28, 2023, 08:38:47 AM
the poor sap behind the podium takes credit or blame

mostly blame

very similar to the head coach & QB
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2023, 08:43:47 AM
Sure, but we all know how often someone decides who is at fault based on politics, and then finds some rationalizaion for that view.  I note the inflation issue as an example of that.

Opinions on topics like climate change are almost always dictated by one's political leanings.  Reading enough to have a mildly competent opinion on this topic is "too much work" for most, so they rely on the conclusions of others to back up what they simply want to believe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 28, 2023, 09:21:32 AM
I think the biggest mistake was the lockdowns. In particular, closing schools. That set a lot of kids back in a big and bad way - for no good reason, and certainly not based on science.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 28, 2023, 09:24:00 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 28, 2023, 07:57:27 AM
I read back over a lot of our early postings yesterday.  "We" (and they) just didn't know very much at the time.  Sure, the politicization was unfortunate, but frankly, nobody anywhere handled this remarkably well.  As noted above, COVID was going to do its thing regardless.  We had the myth the vaccine would stop it in its tracks despite many noting the virus would mutate.  We had the early myth you could get it from food and hard surfaces.

As for who would have handled it better, I agree with the above comment that COVID was going to do its thing no matter what "we" did about it beyond perhaps changing the shape of the curve.  Germany was held out as a model to emulate but they have not done well either.  China, well, they did "flatten the curve" for a while.

What I learned I think is to protect the elderly and vulnerable as well as possible and then carry on.
“What I learned I think is to protect the elderly and vulnerable as well as possible and then carry on.”

best summary right there.  And, there were some leaders who DID take that approach despite being vilified by MSM. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 28, 2023, 09:32:08 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on January 28, 2023, 09:24:00 AM
“What I learned I think is to protect the elderly and vulnerable as well as possible and then carry on.”

best summary right there.  And, there were some leaders who DID take that approach despite being vilified by MSM. 
I hope we take that approach next time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 28, 2023, 09:37:37 AM
yup, lock down and lock up the folks at high risk

let the healthy others knock down the numbers under the curve

obviously, at the start no one knows who is and who isn't "high risk"

so there's need for caution 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 28, 2023, 10:15:05 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on January 28, 2023, 09:24:00 AM
“What I learned I think is to protect the elderly and vulnerable as well as possible and then carry on.”

best summary right there.  And, there were some leaders who DID take that approach despite being vilified by MSM. 
Problem is many can't admit when they're elderly. A bridge I'll have to cross in 40-50 yrs
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 28, 2023, 10:26:29 AM
Quote from: MrNubbz on January 28, 2023, 10:15:05 AM
Problem is many can't admit when they're elderly. A bridge I'll have to cross in 40-50 yrs
I think it's pretty easy to identify. If you have underlying conditions, stay home. COPD, diabetes, heart disease, things like that.

If you're a healthy 75 y/o without conditions, there wouldn't be limits. If you're 35 with conditions, there are limits.

People need to be allowed to make their own judgements. Mandates backfire.

Many folks are still wearing masks, and I simply could not care less about it. Just don't tell us we have to do so and all's well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 28, 2023, 11:32:02 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 01:17:12 AM
So making demonstrably incorrect statements....meh.
Telling people no to get tested to keep the positive case total artificially low....meh.
Pressuring the CDC to make statements they knew weren't accurate....meh.
.
I give up. 
https://www.foxnews.com/media/vaccinations-critics-unearth-initial-anti-vaccine-rhetoric-media-lawmakers

i could post 50 examples in 30 minutes.  
you should give up.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2023, 11:37:46 AM
You know how to tell when a politician is lying?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 11:43:39 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 28, 2023, 09:21:32 AM
I think the biggest mistake was the lockdowns. In particular, closing schools. That set a lot of kids back in a big and bad way - for no good reason, and certainly not based on science.
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on January 28, 2023, 09:24:00 AM
“What I learned I think is to protect the elderly and vulnerable as well as possible and then carry on.”

best summary right there.  And, there were some leaders who DID take that approach despite being vilified by MSM. 
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 28, 2023, 09:32:08 AM
I hope we take that approach next time.
We sure as hell better close the schools if a NOVEL pandemic virus is spreading like wildfire that we know nothing about.  The more accurate statement would be that schools were closed too long or that online learning went on too long.  Schools were closed until the science was known, not in spite of it.  
.
The next pandemic virus or bacteria will not necessarily act the same as this one did.  It's a miracle/mystery why it didn't knock out little kids as radically as it did the elderly.  To me, that's what made it a test run for something worse, and we failed.
.
A lot of this monday-morning QBing is just ignoring the face that this was a novel virus that we knew fuck-all about initially.  These great ideas you're posting now would have been criminally insane in the first 6-8-12 months (before we KNEW things, not maybe thought we knew things).  
.
When it comes to new viral entity:
being cautious + wrong > being cavalier + right
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2023, 11:45:20 AM
I guess the Swedes are just smarter than us.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 11:51:26 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on January 28, 2023, 11:32:02 AM
https://www.foxnews.com/media/vaccinations-critics-unearth-initial-anti-vaccine-rhetoric-media-lawmakers

i could post 50 examples in 30 minutes. 
you should give up. 
You're chasing your tail.
I honestly don't want to waste the time to explain why your article is a waste of time.
How about some bullet points:
a - the initial vaccines came out very quickly, and so there was skepticism
b - the hesitation was led by Dems, for political reasons (and they were wrong - this is your point, but there's baggage)
c - it made sense to be skeptical of vaccines that came out so quickly, as they were created by a relatively new/different method
d - once the vaccines proved to be mostly effective/safe, those opinions magically stopped coming from Dems and shifted over to mouth-breathing rural Reps, while clutching their guns and wearing their red, white, and blue undies
e - Trump had fuck-all to do with the way the vaccines were produced
.
I do give up.  I give up on you ever seeing the world through untinted glasses. 




Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 11:52:25 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 28, 2023, 11:45:20 AM
I guess the Swedes are just smarter than us.


Half the people on earth are smarter than the other half.  :88:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 28, 2023, 11:59:36 AM
Half the people on this forum are smarter than the other half.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 28, 2023, 12:01:44 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 11:43:39 AM
We sure as hell better close the schools if a NOVEL pandemic virus is spreading like wildfire that we know nothing about.  The more accurate statement would be that schools were closed too long or that online learning went on too long.  Schools were closed until the science was known, not in spite of it. 
Bull. Shit.

Schools were kept closed at the behest of Teacher Unions. End of story.

The science my ass.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 28, 2023, 12:05:55 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 11:51:26 AM
You're chasing your tail.
I honestly don't want to waste the time to explain why your article is a waste of time.
How about some bullet points:
a - the initial vaccines came out very quickly, and so there was skepticism
b - the hesitation was led by Dems, for political reasons (and they were wrong - this is your point, but there's baggage)
c - it made sense to be skeptical of vaccines that came out so quickly, as they were created by a relatively new/different method
d - once the vaccines proved to be mostly effective/safe, those opinions magically stopped coming from Dems and shifted over to mouth-breathing rural Reps, while clutching their guns and wearing their red, white, and blue undies
e - Trump had fuck-all to do with the way the vaccines were produced
.
I do give up.  I give up on you ever seeing the world through untinted glasses. 





You just can’t stand that there are hundreds of examples of your “side“ doing exactly what you’re accusing others of butte. Making blatantly false statements or political gain, having your dumbass minions believe it, and causing death and pain.  Talk about somebody looking at the world through tinted glasses, holy shit you take the cake
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 28, 2023, 12:06:52 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 28, 2023, 12:01:44 PM
Bull. Shit.

Schools were kept closed at the behest of Teacher Unions. End of story.

The science my ass.
Another example of his bullshit. Another example of him doing exactly what he is accusing others of. Telling lies and having it hurt people who are too stupid to think for themselves and look at the facts on the data
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 28, 2023, 12:12:21 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 11:51:26 AM
You're chasing your tail.
I honestly don't want to waste the time to explain why your article is a waste of time.
How about some bullet points:
a - the initial vaccines came out very quickly, and so there was skepticism
b - the hesitation was led by Dems, for political reasons (and they were wrong - this is your point, but there's baggage)
c - it made sense to be skeptical of vaccines that came out so quickly, as they were created by a relatively new/different method
d - once the vaccines proved to be mostly effective/safe, those opinions magically stopped coming from Dems and shifted over to mouth-breathing rural Reps, while clutching their guns and wearing their red, white, and blue undies
e - Trump had fuck-all to do with the way the vaccines were produced
.
I do give up.  I give up on you ever seeing the world through untinted glasses. 





Virtually everything you posted is completely false- and revisionist history. 

it is humorous. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 12:47:53 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 28, 2023, 12:01:44 PM
Bull. Shit.

Schools were kept closed at the behest of Teacher Unions. End of story.

The science my ass.
The schools that opened back up did so when they knew it was safe to.  
I should have worded that more precisely.  Thank you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 12:48:42 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on January 28, 2023, 12:12:21 PM
Virtually everything you posted is completely false- and revisionist history. 

it is humorous. 
I don't know what to say about your posts......likewise? 
.
This is the fun of a post-truth society. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 12:50:26 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on January 28, 2023, 12:05:55 PM
You just can’t stand that there are hundreds of examples of your “side“ doing exactly what you’re accusing others of butte. Making blatantly false statements or political gain, having your dumbass minions believe it, and causing death and pain.  Talk about somebody looking at the world through tinted glasses, holy shit you take the cake
That's not "my side," no mater how much you want it to be.
Also, I've twice now said both parties acted poorly.  For some reason, you seem unable to say it.  I wonder why.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 28, 2023, 12:54:22 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 12:47:53 PM
The schools that opened back up did so when they knew it was safe to. 
I should have worded that more precisely.  Thank you.
still incorrect. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 12:57:56 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 28, 2023, 12:54:22 PM
still incorrect.
It's correct, just perhaps in places you don't live or FoxNews doesn't report on.
All  the (urban) school districts in AZ (a right-to-work state, where unions have little-to-no power), gave online-only options and while opening back up to in-person schooling.
.
State and local, remember?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2023, 01:00:10 PM
School reopening timing varied all over the map, right?  I don't think there was some specific date determined by "science" for any of that, everyone was seat of the pantsing.  We also knew pretty early on that this largely hit elderly hard, not young folks, and not kids.  The biggest mistake made in my mind was the notion that various steps would END the outbreak.  Closing schools was intended to cut down on transmission, and that was never going to work very well.  Maybe "we" didn't know it at the time, but I think "we" did know it by the end of 2020.

As for asserting this politician or that was critically damaging to the efforts, I disagree.  The idea that just about anyone else as President would have done a LOT better is not something to which I subscribe.  Nobody anywhere did a lot better except perhaps some island nations or nations that could be totally isolated because they are dictatorships.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2023, 01:01:11 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 12:57:56 PM
All  the (urban) school districts in AZ (a right-to-work state, where unions have little-to-no power), gave online-only options and while opening back up to in-person schooling.
Right to work states do have unions, and they have whatever power any union can have.  Public employee unions have a lot of power and influence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 28, 2023, 01:19:23 PM
If this doesn't bother you, I don't know what more to say.

Powerful teachers union influenced CDC on school reopenings, emails show (nypost.com) (https://nypost.com/2021/05/01/teachers-union-collaborated-with-cdc-on-school-reopening-emails/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2023, 01:49:40 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 25, 2020, 08:17:57 AM
Just back from Kroger, went during "senior hour", which wasn't really being enforced, the security guard showed up as I was leaving.  They were at about 85% stockage, even some TP was present, not much left.  No quotas.  Bread was in short supply was enough was there for an hour or so.  Eggs were there.  Veggies aplenty.  Dried beans were rare.  Plenty of canned goods.  Ground beef was low.
I recall thinking we could have a supply collapse back then.  I still have a box of oatmeal from then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 01:51:46 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 28, 2023, 01:19:23 PM
If this doesn't bother you, I don't know what more to say.

Powerful teachers union influenced CDC on school reopenings, emails show (nypost.com) (https://nypost.com/2021/05/01/teachers-union-collaborated-with-cdc-on-school-reopening-emails/)
Of course it's bothersome because it's bad.  

With all these different entities influencing the CDC, maybe the problem isn't the CDC in general, just that it's able to be influenced at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 01:54:18 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 28, 2023, 01:00:10 PM
School reopening timing varied all over the map, right?  I don't think there was some specific date determined by "science" for any of that, everyone was seat of the pantsing.  We also knew pretty early on that this largely hit elderly hard, not young folks, and not kids.  The biggest mistake made in my mind was the notion that various steps would END the outbreak.  Closing schools was intended to cut down on transmission, and that was never going to work very well.  Maybe "we" didn't know it at the time, but I think "we" did know it by the end of 2020.

Learning (through the data) that kids didn't get COVID hardly at all was a very different fact that whether they could carry it and have it spread from home-to-school  or vice-versa.  That was a later data point.  

Some of you seem to think that what turned out to be a poor or ineffective decision was a sin, when in reality, it was perfectly prudent in the face of a novel virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 01:54:59 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 28, 2023, 01:01:11 PM
Right to work states do have unions, and they have whatever power any union can have.  Public employee unions have a lot of power and influence.
I believe you, but that's not the reality in AZ.  I can only speak on what I observe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2023, 02:08:35 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 27, 2023, 12:38:11 PM
We had precisely the wrong leader in power when this thing hit. 
I think the data show pretty clearly that nobody else handled this very well either.  We can of course believe "if only Obama had been President, it would have been far better", but I do not.  


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 28, 2023, 02:09:55 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 01:54:18 PM
Some of you seem to think that what turned out to be a poor or ineffective decision was a sin, when in reality, it was perfectly prudent in the face of a novel virus.
same with Trump and other leaders
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2023, 02:16:08 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 01:54:59 PM
I believe you, but that's not the reality in AZ.  I can only speak on what I observe.
And maybe your teacher's union is inept, but that has nothing to do with AZ's being a RTW state.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 02:16:57 PM
You guys are supporting a guy who repeatedly made DEMONSTRABLY false statements to the country.  

I guess I'm weird, in wanting the message from the leader to be true or honest or framed in an optimistic, yet uncertain sentiment.

I haven't once said Obama would have done anything better, but nearly ANYONE would have avoided making blatantly false statements (at least I hope so).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 02:18:28 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 28, 2023, 02:16:08 PM
And maybe your teacher's union is inept, but that has nothing to do with AZ's being a RTW state.

I've worked for 3 different districts in AZ and none of their unions have had any power, regardless of the buy-in.  As I've already said, I believe you, but I guess it doesn't matter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2023, 02:19:15 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 02:16:57 PM
You guys are supporting a guy who repeatedly made DEMONSTRABLY false statements to the country. 

I guess I'm weird, in wanting the message from the leader to be true or honest or framed in an optimistic, yet uncertain sentiment.

I haven't once said Obama would have done anything better, but nearly ANYONE would have avoided making blatantly false statements (at least I hope so).
I don't see anyone supporting Trump here, maybe I missed it.  My point is regardless of how badly Trump handled it, it really didn't matter.  You claimed ANYONE else (which would include Obama) would have done far better.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2023, 02:21:33 PM
Let's stipulate Trump told lies and made ridiculous statements.  Did it matter in the long run?

Biden claimed to have a "PLAN", and Trump didn't.  I'm still waiting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 02:23:01 PM
It's as if you're not even reading my posts.  FFS
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 28, 2023, 02:24:09 PM
many leaders were making blatantly false statements back then

including the CDC


some because of ignorance
some because of different motivations
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 02:26:10 PM
You guys are literally advocating for or apathetic towards our president lying to the populace.  Shrug.  Sweep it under the rug.

Every time there's a debate here, I always feel so vindicated.  I wonder why that is.  Shit, having the moral high ground here requires the world's shortest stool.

I'm done.  Carry on.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2023, 02:26:15 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 02:23:01 PM
It's as if you're not even reading my posts.  FFS
"We had precisely the wrong leader in power when this thing hit. "
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2023, 02:27:57 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 02:26:10 PM
You guys are literally advocating for or apathetic towards our president lying to the populace.  Shrug.  Sweep it under the rug.

Every time there's a debate here, I always feel so vindicated.  I wonder why that is.  Shit, having the moral high ground here requires the world's shortest stool.
They ALL do it.  You single out Trump as some kind of unique animal who was the worst possible leader when this hit.

I wish they didn't, but they do, routinely.  My point is whether it mattered, at all, in the long run.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 02:32:57 PM
When your child does something awful on purpose and his defense is that the other kids do it too, does that suffice and he's off the hook?

Get a mirror, man.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2023, 02:39:09 PM
I have control over my child, or did, and a responsibility to teach them right from wrong.

The point is whether Trump's lying had any impact on the course of the pandemic.  You asserted very clearly that ANYONE else would have done better.

Maybe they would have lied less, fine, great, but would it have changed anything of substance?

Area under the curve.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 28, 2023, 03:01:21 PM
ALL the democratic leaders were lying and making blatantly false statements as well

not excusing Trump or any other leaders
not excusing the CDC and Fauci

just sayin the virus was going to run it's course and in the big picture, the leadership or lack thereof didn't matter as much as most folks believe 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 28, 2023, 03:26:49 PM
Thank the Lord we Have Brandon instead of Trump

Under Trump we had a much more secure border

Low gas prices

Low inflation

Much stronger military

yep Brandon is so much better for the country

Under Brandon the Trump lower tax rates will expire


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 28, 2023, 03:30:32 PM
I understand that gas was cheaper and inflation wasn't as high, but..

what changed at the border and with the military?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 28, 2023, 03:44:47 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 28, 2023, 03:30:32 PM
I understand that gas was cheaper and inflation wasn't as high, but..

what changed at the border and with the military?
1. Go down and have a look, perhaps? Then read the complaints coming out of mayoral mouths in DC, NYC, Chicago, etc.

2. Are you not aware of the recruiting problem? It's real, and it's not good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 28, 2023, 03:53:52 PM
well, Trump would have loved the idea of transporting those folks to liberal cities such as DC, NYC, Chicago.
He might have thrown money at the idea
It certainly could have been done a few years ago
So, no change
I understand more than ever are crossing.  I thought this was happening because the rules from the Trump era could possibly change soon, but nothing has changed

Military recruiting has made a noticeable change in the overall strength of the military?
No, I hadn't heard that.
Lack of good employee recruiting is a problem for most industries and organizations
I hear more about teacher shortages and law enforcement.
But, schools aren't closing or putting students in study hall or recess 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2023, 03:56:51 PM
Military recruiting always struggles when unemployment is low, as it has been.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 28, 2023, 04:13:46 PM
I was not a fan of Obama or Clinton but I was never embarrassed to have them at the POTUS position

There is not a day when I truely dont feel embarrassed with Brandon in the WH

He is  the worst President weve ever had and probably the most corrupt as well 

If we have to elect a dem please let it be someone else
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 28, 2023, 07:04:10 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 02:26:10 PM
You guys are literally advocating for or apathetic towards our president lying to the populace.  Shrug.  Sweep it under the rug.

Every time there's a debate here, I always feel so vindicated.  I wonder why that is.  Shit, having the moral high ground here requires the world's shortest stool.

I'm done.  Carry on. 
Not true. I hate  Biden for his constant lying- just about every word out of his mouth.  I might have a little sympathy for him because he doesn’t know what day it is, what his wife’s name is, or whether he was a Harley driver, a semi driver, or an ace pilot in World War I, and those things are not his fault. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 28, 2023, 07:13:50 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 01:54:18 PM
Learning (through the data) that kids didn't get COVID hardly at all was a very different fact that whether they could carry it and have it spread from home-to-school  or vice-versa.  That was a later data point. 

Some of you seem to think that what turned out to be a poor or ineffective decision was a sin, when in reality, it was perfectly prudent in the face of a novel virus.

This goes to the point of a specific way I felt the conversation never matured in the general public.  Almost everybody who formed an opinion and entrenched themselves in it, seemed like, were mostly only considering one thing in a vacuum.  And that's overly simplified for how we have to move forward as a society.  People who were concerned about a novel virus that we had little information on wanted to take measures to protect health and public safety...and that is a valid concern.  But in order to do what may have indeed been the wisest response with respect to the data we had at the time almost certainly has consequences in other areas.  Others quickly focused on the various responses and began their amateur careers as constitutional lawyers and concerned themselves with government action, overreach, and personal liberty....and that is also a valid concern.  A key principle of our society is we don't (supposedly) disregard freedoms just because something in life hit the fan (it always will, at some point).  But in order to protect what they thought was in danger--maybe rightfully so--those people tended to disregard the valid concern of the first group.  

That is a way oversimplified version of what happened and only presents two key concerns that sprang up.  And it doesn't even get into the overlap and ignorance of so many on certain things.  i.e., if you really care about people's health, you'd better keep the economy at a certain strength because on a slower scale and a bigger picture than most people deal with, nothing promotes a healthy society like a strong economy.  That's something I happen to know a little about....God knows what all I don't know about that made my opinions limited in understanding.  I read comments here and can tell people know about stuff I haven't even heard of.  

There was a push-and-pull of various ideologies, areas of concern, and there should have been, and there was no "right" answer, even though it's easy to look back in hindsight and point out things that now seem obviously wrong.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 28, 2023, 07:14:42 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 02:26:10 PM
You guys are literally advocating for or apathetic towards our president lying to the populace.  Shrug.  Sweep it under the rug.

Every time there's a debate here, I always feel so vindicated.  I wonder why that is.  Shit, having the moral high ground here requires the world's shortest stool.

I'm done.  Carry on. 
Yes- we know what your moral high ground is

you thought it was perfectly OK for Cuomo, Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, Adam Schiff, Schumer, Newsom, ( the list goes on) to vilify people who didn’t think they needed to wear mask and yet everyone of them was caught multiple times in public without one when they didn’t know someone was watching.  Congratulations on your version of the moral high ground.

You thought it was ok to close down sporting events- even with 100 masking required.  But if 20,000 people with masks on were walking hand-in-hand, throwing Molotov cocktails at police cars, breaking windows, setting court houses and banks on fire, and beating any white person they happen to come across senseless, was OK during Covid.  Nice moral high ground. 
you cheered when Biden and Harris, coincidentally while trying to get elected, cast major doubts on the vaccine and the hopes that it might bring. And you cheered again coincidentally the day after the election when they established the false narrative that anyone who wasn’t willing to be vaccinated was a radical right person with red white and blue underwear and a gun.  ( you’re posting history suggest an uncomfortable passion for peoples underwear)
Congratulations on your moral high ground.  .
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 07:28:09 PM
Wow, I'm your own personal boogeyman.  A big, scary caricature in your head.  
Cool.

Enjoy your invented, self-inflicted personal nightmare.  I have nothing to do with it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 28, 2023, 07:30:44 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 02:16:57 PM
You guys are supporting a guy who repeatedly made DEMONSTRABLY false statements to the country. 

I guess I'm weird, in wanting the message from the leader to be true or honest or framed in an optimistic, yet uncertain sentiment.

I haven't once said Obama would have done anything better, but nearly ANYONE would have avoided making blatantly false statements (at least I hope so).

If the last two years have taught me anything, it's that Biden will outdo Trump in blatantly false statements, stupid opinions, severe ignorance, and general incompetence any day of the week and twice on Sundays.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 28, 2023, 07:32:02 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 02:32:57 PM
When your child does something awful on purpose and his defense is that the other kids do it too, does that suffice and he's off the hook?

Get a mirror, man.

Yet you only rail on one guy, while seemingly happy to admit they all do it.

EDIT:  Actually, that's not true.  Off the top of my head, you routinely demean Trump--I intentionally didn't say "criticize" because that's not what you do--you called DeSantis a cartoon character, and I once brought up Jordan Peterson and you couldn't resist hopping on and rolling your eyes.  Like....I actually threw that name out there just to get a response from you, and it worked.  It was terribly predictable.  All the while, you don't ever criticize any left-leaning individuals.

Your claim to the others that they're trying to peg you for "a side," and that you don't have "a side" lacks self awareness at best.  If that were really the case, I shouldn't be able to predict your responses so often.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 28, 2023, 07:53:28 PM
Quote from: MikeDeTiger on January 28, 2023, 07:13:50 PM
 even though it's easy to look back in hindsight and point out things that now seem obviously wrong. 
unfortunately, the things that seem obviously wrong in hindsight
aren't obviously wrong to many.  and many of those many are in leadership positions
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 08:50:41 PM
Quote from: MikeDeTiger on January 28, 2023, 07:32:02 PM
Yet you only rail on one guy, while seemingly happy to admit they all do it.

EDIT:  Actually, that's not true.  Off the top of my head, you routinely demean Trump--I intentionally didn't say "criticize" because that's not what you do--you called DeSantis a cartoon character, and I once brought up Jordan Peterson and you couldn't resist hopping on and rolling your eyes.  Like....I actually threw that name out there just to get a response from you, and it worked.  It was terribly predictable.  All the while, you don't ever criticize any left-leaning individuals.

Your claim to the others that they're trying to peg you for "a side," and that you don't have "a side" lacks self awareness at best.  If that were really the case, I shouldn't be able to predict your responses so often.


Who are the radical left talking heads I should be including? 
Biden?  When the democrats were down to 4 presidential nominees, 2 were moderate and 2 were more liberal.  Biden was one of the moderates remaining.  But since he's the prez now, he's an extreme lefty psycho grandpa demon.  Sure, why not. 
.
When a person is standing in the middle, they get to see what both sides are doing.  The right started the sprint away from the middle and they distanced themself faster.  In the past 5 years, the left has been going light speed away from the center.  But instead of taking advantage of this and gaining actual ground by easing up just a little and being a tiny bit more centrist, the right hitches their wagons to Trump.  Even after he loses.  Now, on both sides, there are minority groups wanting to be more centrist, but neither is convincing their tribe to do it.  Today, Trump's numbers easily beat out any other righty politician.  On the left, no one wants Biden, but there's no one to replace him, and replacing an incumbent in the first place isn't wise.
.
So when you cite my mentioning righty whack-jobs that are out there and ask why I don't do the same with the lefties, it's because I don't know who they are.  AOC doesn't matter (she can thank the GOP for her popularity).  Bernie's gone.  Warren disappeared.  Pelosi = McConnell (blah-blah run-of-the-mill fodder).  Who is the lefty Jordan Peterson, sharing their word salad, silly use of 'substrate' and cries all the time?  BLM?  No idea who the leader of that was.  The person who led the charge to take all the guns away....ooops, that never happened.
.
When you ask why I don't PFFFT at both sides, IDK what you want.  The far-left crazies are crazy.  Duh.  But the one voted into the White House wasn't one of them. 
We're at a point now where no one from the left is decent enough not to be a garbage human being, according to the right.  And the right has colossally fucked up in not rolling out someone sane to take advantage of the last 5 years of antifa, BLM, etc.
.
Don't get mad at me for that.  Both sides are BROKEN.  No one is woke enough for the left and no one sane garners enough support on the right. 
.
Go on and tell me how wrong I am, when you agree with 80% of what I just typed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 28, 2023, 08:54:38 PM
Quote from: MikeDeTiger on January 28, 2023, 07:30:44 PM
If the last two years have taught me anything, it's that Biden will outdo Trump in blatantly false statements, stupid opinions, severe ignorance, and general incompetence any day of the week and twice on Sundays. 
that's very impressive, cause Trump was pretty solid in those areas
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 28, 2023, 10:10:31 PM
I don't think Trump's "exaggerations" made any difference in the course of the pandemic, perhaps one could argue a slight on early on.

I don't think Biden's "lies" make much difference in reality either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 28, 2023, 10:59:13 PM
rational people, like most of us here, don't pay much attention to that noise
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 29, 2023, 06:30:35 AM
Sure, that's the point, a lie by some politician is pretty irrelevant if it changed nothing.  There are times when their lies are significant because of that, lying about some international incident can be pivotal for example.  Trump engaged early on in unfounded wishful thinking (as did Pelosi).  I don't think it changed the outcome.

Of course, it's an opinion that had anyone competent been president, the outcome would have been better, OK, that can be your opinion, I just don't share it.  This thing was going to run its course, the shape of the pandemic might have been a bit different, but we had no tools beyond sheltering in place, and that just changed the shape of the curve.  Then there was the vaccine, a real tool, but one that provided protection a lot less effective than hoped over time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 29, 2023, 06:33:13 AM
We attended a concert last night that included a choir of around 180 voices.  I noticed four women and two men in the choir wearing masks.  I think two in the orchestra wore masks, including the "tympanist".  We had attended a year plus back when all the strings wore masks, but not the horns and woodwinds (ha), a rather strange sight.  The audience had a sprinkling of mask wearers, maybe 5% or so, some were elderly, some were Asian.

I think my wife got COVID from a concert about a year ago before a trip.  And we're about to take another trip ....

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 29, 2023, 07:07:34 AM
Government officials are thinking of increasing oversight of risky virus studies : Shots - Health News : NPR (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2023/01/27/1151867224/virologists-science-oversight-risky-experiments)

Felicia Goodrum (https://cancercenter.arizona.edu/person/felicia-d-goodrum-sterling-phd), a virologist at the University of Arizona, says that open-minded experts have investigated the origins of the pandemic. The available evidence, she says, supports the notion that the virus emerged from nature just like other viruses such as HIV and Ebola did — by jumping from animals into people who had contact with them.
(https://media.npr.org/assets/img/2021/05/28/gettyimages-1230938483_sq-23cae2f3f9cd1f7c01fb0e7605a90d79e00f761e-s300-c85.jpg) (https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/05/28/1001319014/many-scientists-still-think-the-coronavirus-came-from-nature)
GOATS AND SODA (https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/)
Many Scientists Still Think The Coronavirus Came From Nature (https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/05/28/1001319014/many-scientists-still-think-the-coronavirus-came-from-nature)
"The evidence that we have to date suggests that SARS-CoV-2 entered the human population by that route," says Goodrum. "There is no evidence to the contrary or in support of a lab leak, nothing credible."
Basic research on viruses, she says, is what led to the swift development of vaccines and drugs to fight the pandemic.
And yet virologists have watched in dismay as misinformation and conspiracy theories have placed the blame on science.
"There's this complete disconnect between reality and what happened," says Michael Imperiale (https://medicine.umich.edu/dept/microbiology-immunology/michael-j-imperiale-phd), a virologist at the University of Michigan.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 29, 2023, 08:49:25 AM
Covid: CDC urges immunocompromised to take precautions after Evusheld pulled (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/27/covid-cdc-urges-immunocompromised-to-take-precautions-after-evusheld-pulled.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 29, 2023, 08:52:13 AM
a good urge?

I have an urge to get another cup of coffee
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 29, 2023, 09:55:41 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 29, 2023, 06:33:13 AM

I think my wife got COVID from a concert about a year ago before a trip.  And we're about to take another trip ....

Stay lucky you nut

(https://i.imgur.com/vUpTHaY.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 29, 2023, 02:56:25 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 29, 2023, 07:07:34 AM

"There's this complete disconnect between reality and what happened," says Michael Imperiale (https://medicine.umich.edu/dept/microbiology-immunology/michael-j-imperiale-phd), a virologist at the University of Michigan.



Wasn't he Christopher on The Sopranos?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 30, 2023, 06:37:41 AM
We have a long flight upcoming and I'm wondering if they will want masks (Air Canada).  It's a 12+ hour flight, in the back.

Changes to COVID-19 travel requirements (aircanada.com) (https://www.aircanada.com/ca/en/aco/home/book/travel-news-and-updates/2022/covid-19-travel-requirements.html#/)

And they don't, they dropped everything in September apparently.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 30, 2023, 08:10:16 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 30, 2023, 06:37:41 AM
We have a long flight upcoming and I'm wondering if they will want masks (Air Canada).  It's a 12+ hour flight, in the back.

Changes to COVID-19 travel requirements (aircanada.com) (https://www.aircanada.com/ca/en/aco/home/book/travel-news-and-updates/2022/covid-19-travel-requirements.html#/)

And they don't, they dropped everything in September apparently.


Correct.

Masking

Customers will no longer be required to undergo health checks for air travel or wear masks on board flights. Although the masking requirement is being lifted, all customers are recommended to wear high quality and well-fitted masks for the length of their journey.

I'm not aware of any Western airlines requiring masks anymore, but you have to wear them if you are going to China and other places like it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 30, 2023, 11:23:44 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 28, 2023, 08:50:41 PM
Go on and tell me how wrong I am, when you agree with 80% of what I just typed.

Like, 50%, maybe.

It would take far more time than I have at work to go over the laundry list of the ways Democratic politicians do things I strongly disagree with.  

Where you have a point is that the majority of the Republican party also irritates me.  Just not in the direction it seems you're alluding to.  But again, their list of crimes against my preferences is too long to detail here.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 30, 2023, 11:31:34 AM
If someone can tie Trump's misstatements into how COVID was worse than it would have been otherwise, that would be somewhat useful.

But really, it's not important.  Most folks who are "politically aware" suffer greatly from confirmation bias.  They only see what is bad for the other side, and minimize or ignore anything bad about theirs.

The only reason I suffer less from this is I don't like or respect ANYBODY in public office.  There probably are a few exceptions somewhere, maybe.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 30, 2023, 11:41:49 AM
There are a number of politicians I like.  As far as I know about them, I mean.  There's always a good chance I don't know things about their voting record, stance, etc. that I wouldn't agree with.  They are just outnumbered by a fair bit.  

Not really much for me to do other than talk, though.  At the national level, I'm fairly happy with my district's representative, and I'm "okay" with the two senators.  Not much I can do about any of the others....I don't vote for or against them.  

I'd like an upgrade at governor.  I voted for somebody else in the primary, although I voted for him in the general election.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on January 30, 2023, 12:10:35 PM
Quote from: MikeDeTiger on January 30, 2023, 11:23:44 AM
Like, 50%, maybe.

It would take far more time than I have at work to go over the laundry list of the ways Democratic politicians do things I strongly disagree with. 

Where you have a point is that the majority of the Republican party also irritates me.  Just not in the direction it seems you're alluding to.  But again, their list of crimes against my preferences is too long to detail here. 
50%.  I would say more like 10%.   

as usual- he is all wrong and has a very selective memory. 

The main reason a dufus like Trump ( and he is a dufus/ which is why I couldn’t vote for him either time) could even win when he did was because how rapidly and how far the left moved further left- into outrageous world - even bizzaro world. That, and the other choice was Crooked Hillary/ the queen of stealing classified docs, skirting responsibility and outright lying.  Most of the country couldn’t stomach her- or 4 more years of Obama ( “ you’ll keep your doctor and be able to afford health care😂😂)
I am sure he was part of the million vagina March on Inauguration Day, where Madonna said “burn the White House down” before Trump ever took office.  Followed by 2 days of Antifa riots, smashing windows and starting fires- ya know, because they crybabies didn’t have an election go there way.  Followed up with the “ we only lost because they cheated” false conspiracy theories and the Russia Russia collusion lies.
Trumps problem is he has diarrhea of the mouth. Oddly- he created more issues by telling the truth. He said things you can’t say- even though must folks realize they are true

I never cared for him, and the GOP irritates the hell out of me.
But the fake impeachment proceedings, the attempted railroading of Kavanaugh with 200% of the facts and evidence in Kavanaugh’s favor, and the great woke Covid strategy/ made me realize the left is truly intentionally trying to bring this country to its knees- and they are great at leveraging their control of the MSM and Social Media to be well on their way.

Their performance during Covid was a thing of beauty.  Get on the same page with the media, blame Trump for the origin of Covid, and everything related to it, exaggerated
the death toll,fight tooth and nail against any initiative he tried- including accelerating the Vaccine production, resist closing air flights coming in from  its origin geographies, virtually all things they would reverse course on once Trump was gone.

If you repeat a lie enough, in numerous places and by enough of your minions, your minions ( like Fro) not only believe them/ they perpetuate them. 

Meanwhile- our current Prez can’t tell the truth on anything- and it’s hard to tell if he is that bad of a liar or his dementia is just that advanced.
You know/ “ the economy is doing great” or “there is no problem at the border” or “ they are not teaching CRT in schools”.  Stuff we can see a plane as the sun rising. 

Fro has shown his colors enough to see that when he claims to be standing in the middle- you know that’s Big fat lie. He leans far left on virtually EVERY issue discussed on this board, from abortion to gun control- everything.  And he takes a shot on any person of faith, anything to do with religion- and especially anything that could be perceived as patriotic.  He thinks someone who loves this country is a problem and needs to eliminated. 

just look at his posting history-  so when he comes back and tries to deny this, you too can just laugh. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 30, 2023, 12:26:01 PM
In a sense, I'm fine if someone leans left, even far left.  

Just be self-aware about it.  

I've never tried to hide the fact that I'm right-leaning and while I often disagree with other right-leaning people, I think it's a generally fair characterization to label me conservative.  

I don't get the "centrist" talk from either side, as if it's a given that being a centrist is necessarily some kind of virtue.  Centrism has its benefits, sure, but as a product of two sides pulling against each other, not as a starting point someone aspires to.  The primary reason I don't like so many Republicans in office is because they are too busy trying to be centrists.  I could care less about appeasing liberals.  They sure aren't trying to appease anyone else.  

Prior to the 2020 election, maybe for the first time ever, I read the the entirety of the party platforms.  It was a pretty eye-opening experience.  About 90 pages for one and 50 pages for the other--I forget now which was which.  The Republicans basically just ratified the 2016 platform and so I believe it was probably that older document I read.  The Democrats had crafted a new one for 2020.  As much as the Democratic platform made me want to hurl, I had to give them credit for putting in writing exactly what they're about and then proceeding to work their butts off to those ends.  I also remember thinking, hey, if Republicans actually acted toward the goals in their platform, I'd like them better.    

I just don't see much evidence that they do.  They say the right things, but then they get in office and don't do what they say.  And if they think they truly are working toward those ends, then they need serious help in understanding the world in which they operate....which I don't think is the case.

I could care less if someone thinks I'm "far-right" (a term so abused now that it's lost all meaning) or thinks I'm not evolved enough because I'm not a centrist.  I don't care about being a centrist.  I don't care about placating someone with different views.  In general we've always wound up somewhere more in the middle because the world is full of people pulling against people like me.  It's not my job to meet them in the middle.  The middle happens when I pull exactly where I want things to be and other people tug against me.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 30, 2023, 12:39:16 PM
If asked, I tell folks I'm an "extreme moderate", which usually gets a chuckle and a change in the topic.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 30, 2023, 01:06:30 PM
We have a uniparty in DC, its only interest is maintaining its power.

We have a very deep swamp to enable it too.

They don't care about us. They are coming after us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on January 30, 2023, 07:04:51 PM
I love how everybody talks about COVID and the deaths in the abstract.  x,xxx,xxx people died, but xx% of those were not really covid deaths, the media hyped, politicians hyped, blah blah blah.  

The reality of it is that real people died, and they died from COVID.  Many hospitals were over-run, there were shortages of medical staff, medical supplies, the the bodies piled up.  

I know personally of 18 people who died from COVID, including my dad and my uncle.  I know people from work who died, I know people who were permanently disabled because of COVID.  I have friends who had parents who died of COVID.  

It always baffles me when people say they don't know anybody who died from COVID, or they only know of one person in passing who died.  We must just live in different worlds, because it was a real thing, and lots and lots of people died, and not all of them were old and feeble.  I know of one person whose 49 year old wife died from it, leaving their 10 year old son without a mom.  

Everybody wanted their say, media, politicians, doctors for vax, doctors for anti-vax, school boards, airlines, tourism, sports.  And the people paid the price.  The kids who didn't go to school for more than the first covid semester paid the price.  And we still can't even agree on anything because there is so much bullshit on top of bullshit we can't even agree that the sky is blue or that water is wet.  



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 30, 2023, 07:13:12 PM
I hear ya.

I still don't know a single person that died of COVID or was even hospitalized.  And that includes my 80+year old inlaws who got it in July 2020 when it was still in its initial, most harmful phase.

I guess my response is,  it's baffling to me that you could possibly know 18 people who died of it.

But I don't deny it had a severe impact to the health and lives of people.  It definitely happened.

But it also represents the first and only time in history, when healthy people were forced to quarantine.  That's something that needs to be carefully examined, and extensive lessons learned should be extracted from it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 30, 2023, 08:21:33 PM
when you talk about covid you are really talking about at least 4 variants 

The first one was the worst

The one we have now is the mildest

That plus the fact herd immunity has really increased

The flu poses a bigger threat to life in todays world
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 30, 2023, 09:56:35 PM
Quote from: Gigem on January 30, 2023, 07:04:51 PM
Everybody wanted their say, media, politicians, doctors for vax, doctors for anti-vax, school boards, airlines, tourism, sports.  And the people paid the price.  The kids who didn't go to school for more than the first covid semester paid the price.  And we still can't even agree on anything because there is so much bullshit on top of bullshit we can't even agree that the sky is blue or that water is wet. 




this

we've learned nothing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 30, 2023, 09:57:20 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 30, 2023, 07:13:12 PM
But it also represents the first and only time in history, when healthy people were forced to quarantine.  That's something that needs to be carefully examined, and extensive lessons learned should be extracted from it.
not so sure about this
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2023, 07:16:58 AM
Healthy people were asked/forced/volunteered to quarantine on numerous occasions in history.  

Lessons from the History of Quarantine, from Plague to Influenza A - PMC (nih.gov) (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3559034/)

It was common for ships to be held in harbor if there was any fear they had plague or anything else on board, which is a kind of quarantine of course, even if the ships were healthy.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 31, 2023, 09:50:12 AM
Messaging matters.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 31, 2023, 10:22:17 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 31, 2023, 07:16:58 AM
Healthy people were asked/forced/volunteered to quarantine on numerous occasions in history. 

Lessons from the History of Quarantine, from Plague to Influenza A - PMC (nih.gov) (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3559034/)

It was common for ships to be held in harbor if there was any fear they had plague or anything else on board, which is a kind of quarantine of course, even if the ships were healthy.



That's not the same at all, and is really only proving my point. Ships that were suspected of having illness, were quarantined.  The entire population of a town, where a ship was docking, was not under quarantine.

The correct analogy here, would be that everyone on the ship, along with everyone in the town, was placed under quarantine, just because there was the potential that one person on the ship, was ill.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 31, 2023, 10:22:58 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 30, 2023, 09:57:20 PM
not so sure about this
Feel free to show your work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2023, 10:24:41 AM
Healthy folks were quarantined 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2023, 10:27:13 AM
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2862329/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 31, 2023, 10:29:17 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 31, 2023, 10:24:41 AM
Healthy folks were quarantined

Not entire populations of healthy people.  People suspected of direct contact, sure.  

The word comes from quarantina, which was the 40 days that ships were asked to stay offshore when suspected of disease.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 31, 2023, 10:30:12 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 31, 2023, 10:27:13 AM
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2862329/
If there's something in there you'd like me to read, you can quote it.  I'm not sifting through an entire article if you're trying to prove a point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 31, 2023, 10:58:58 AM
Its easy to find examples of a small group of people being quarantined in history but a whole country is unique
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 31, 2023, 11:01:44 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 31, 2023, 10:58:58 AM
Its easy to find examples of a small group of people being quarantined in history but a whole country is unique
Correct.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 31, 2023, 11:57:16 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 31, 2023, 10:58:58 AM
Its easy to find examples of a small group of people being quarantined in history but a whole country is unique
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 31, 2023, 11:01:44 AM
Correct.

Right.  This is my point.

I suppose my initial post should have been stated "an entire population of healthy people" rather than just "some isolated healthy people that were already potentially compromised by an ill person" but I didn't expect the response on THIS site to include pedantic bullshittery, because I felt it was pretty obvious what I meant.

Lesson learned for me, I guess.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2023, 11:59:18 AM
Technically, the entire US wasn't shut down.  But large states were.  And I agree that appears to be unique in history.

The examples I found of previous quarantines were directed at folks who might have been in contact with the infected.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 31, 2023, 12:09:00 PM
The whole country was in fact shut down initially. Even Florida.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2023, 12:46:09 PM
Some states did not.

States that did not issue stay-at-home orders in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020 - Ballotpedia (https://ballotpedia.org/States_that_did_not_issue_stay-at-home_orders_in_response_to_the_coronavirus_(COVID-19)_pandemic,_2020)

Seven states—Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming—did not issue orders directing residents to stay at home from nonessential activities in March and April 2020 in response to the coronavirus pandemic. The 43 other states all issued orders at the state level directing residents to stay at home except for essential activities and closing businesses that each state deemed nonessential (https://ballotpedia.org/States_with_lockdown_and_stay-at-home_orders_in_response_to_the_coronavirus_(COVID-19)_pandemic,_2020#Defining_critical_industries.2C_essential.2C_and_nonessential_businesses).[1] (https://ballotpedia.org/States_that_did_not_issue_stay-at-home_orders_in_response_to_the_coronavirus_(COVID-19)_pandemic,_2020#cite_note-1) Read more about those stay-at-home orders here (https://ballotpedia.org/States_with_lockdown_and_stay-at-home_orders_in_response_to_the_coronavirus_(COVID-19)_pandemic,_2020).

Only one of the seven states that did not issue a stay-at-home order did not require any businesses to close: South Dakota. All seven states also closed schools to in-person instruction.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2023, 12:57:48 PM
A Closer Look at the States that Stayed Open | AIER (https://www.aier.org/article/a-closer-look-at-the-states-that-stayed-open/)

Despite COVID-19’s role in the decline of the fossil fuel industry which is a key component in states like North Dakota and Wyoming that didn’t issue stay at home orders, they still managed to maintain better employment rates than many states that did lock down. 
The rest of the states that didn’t issue stay at home orders (Utah, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, and Arkansas) fared just as well if not better than other states. In particular, Utah and Nebraska did extraordinarily well maintaining a 4.5% and 4.8% unemployment rate, respectively while keeping death rates low.
 In contrast, pro-lockdown states like New York, California, and Massachusetts saw catastrophic unemployment numbers, 15.9%, 13.3%, and 16.1% respectively, alongside high COVID-19 death rates.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 31, 2023, 12:58:58 PM
So, vis a vis "not learning anything", maybe "we" did learn something, lock downs were ineffective and counterproductive.  I realize those are largely rural states and other factors are at play, but a lot of states like GA are rural also.

And then there is Sweden, and China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 31, 2023, 01:25:46 PM
I stand corrected. But the overall point stands. Mass lockdowns were a mistake - one that many learned, and early on. 

Prolonging them was a disaster for the states that did so.

Florida was wide open for everything by the time we left in June 2020. When we got here in April, you couldn't dine in (1 week later you could), gyms were not open, nail salons, hair salons, etc. were not open.

The changes came about in the first week of June or so. 

When we got back in September, you mostly wouldn't know we had a pandemic going on. Stark difference from Illinois, and even Wisconsin. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 31, 2023, 01:33:21 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 31, 2023, 12:58:58 PM
So, vis a vis "not learning anything", maybe "we" did learn something, lock downs were ineffective and counterproductive.  I realize those are largely rural states and other factors are at play, but a lot of states like GA are rural also.

And then there is Sweden, and China.
I didn't then, and don't in hindsight, have a problem with the lockdowns of Mar/Apr 2020. We didn't really know what we were dealing with. 

It was any/every attempt at lockdown after that, that I had a problem with. It was keeping kids out of schools that I had a problem with--thankfully my kids, 2 in a charter school at the time, and one in a special needs program, were receiving in-person instruction. It was keeping significant mandatory precautions (mask mandates / etc) after widespread vaccine availability was there that I had a problem with. 

By May/June 2020 we had a handle on how transmissible it was, how deadly it was, and a decent idea of how people could individually reduce their risk of getting it. At that point I think we should have had guidelines on "best practices", which yes include social distancing, encouraging employees who can  productively WFH to do so (and their employers to let them), even masking (until vaccine availability) out of courtesy to others. 

But instead, politicians tilted at windmills with attempting to control the uncontrollable. All while those hypocrites were privately flouting all the things they told everyone else to do. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 31, 2023, 01:44:58 PM
Great post B-RAD.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 31, 2023, 11:30:37 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 31, 2023, 01:33:21 PM
But instead, politicians tilted at windmills with attempting to control the uncontrollable. All while those hypocrites were privately flouting all the things they told everyone else to do.
yup, we've learned nothing
the same states will lock down again in the future

and politicians will once again tilt at windmills
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 31, 2023, 11:37:46 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 31, 2023, 12:46:09 PM
Only one of the seven states that did not issue a stay-at-home order did not require any businesses to close: South Dakota. 


hence, folks moving to South Dakota

even though it's way too F ing cold there right now
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 31, 2023, 11:56:01 PM
It's 15 here much fooking colder can it get? Nevermind...and I brought the beer in off the back porch
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 01, 2023, 10:37:15 AM
South Dakotans have nothing to fear from me, I will not be moving there.  They're welcome for my support.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 05, 2023, 01:49:23 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/LLRHwLl.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/rKRybo1.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on February 05, 2023, 11:45:18 PM
Welp, I avoided the Rona for about 3 years (or at least never tested positive) until last week.  Unfortunately, I was in New Orleans at a conference when it happened. So instead of getting to see a little of a town I’d never been to I spent the entire week quarantined in my hotel room.

Monday night into Tuesday morning was the worst of it.  Fever, chills, body aches, etc.  By Tuesday afternoon I was feeling somewhat better but had zero energy.  Wednesday-Friday I still wasn’t 100% but much better than I had been.  I actually snuck out Thursday afternoon and took a walk just to get outside and get some exercise.

Started a Z pack when I got home Friday night and have felt much better since then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 06, 2023, 06:17:14 AM
So, it sounds like it's akin to the flu?  I've not tested positive (yet).  I figure I could catch it on this cruise upcoming.  Or the plane flights.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 06, 2023, 06:38:36 AM
Quote from: Kris60 on February 05, 2023, 11:45:18 PM
Welp, I avoided the Rona for about 3 years (or at least never tested positive) until last week.  Unfortunately, I was in New Orleans at a conference when it happened. So instead of getting to see a little of a town I’d never been to I spent the entire week quarantined in my hotel room.

Monday night into Tuesday morning was the worst of it.  Fever, chills, body aches, etc.  By Tuesday afternoon I was feeling somewhat better but had zero energy.  Wednesday-Friday I still wasn’t 100% but much better than I had been.  I actually snuck out Thursday afternoon and took a walk just to get outside and get some exercise.

Started a Z pack when I got home Friday night and have felt much better since then.
Good to hear you feel better!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 06, 2023, 07:50:56 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 31, 2023, 01:33:21 PM
 even masking (until vaccine availability) out of courtesy to others.

There's no such thing.  When asked to do something for others, the masses yell about their rights, no matter how easily they could comply.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 06, 2023, 07:57:22 AM
Any comment about "the masses" likely is an over generalization.  

And yes, some folks did complain about mask requirements.  From what I could discern, most folks complied.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 06, 2023, 08:01:59 AM
Kris,

Glad it was relatively mild for you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 06, 2023, 09:00:18 AM
I wouldn't have quarantined after day 2.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 06, 2023, 09:17:17 AM
I'd love to read some decent analysis of how the pandemic was "managed" in different places and how that impacted the "area under the curve" etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on February 06, 2023, 09:18:19 AM
Anybody see the Cochrane study on masking?  Doubt it will get much attention.   They performed a number of RCTs and find no clear evidence that any type of mask or masking is effective against transmission or protection against contraction of CV, flu or other respiratory viral infections.

Randomized control tests are the gold standard of testing.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 06, 2023, 09:21:59 AM
I've seen a lot of studies on masking, and they are all over the map in conclusions.  My take is that it is marginally effective at preventing transmission, probably a low enough factor to make finding it variable.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 06, 2023, 09:23:16 AM
Quote from: MarqHusker on February 06, 2023, 09:18:19 AM
Anybody see the Cochrane study on masking?  Doubt it will get much attention.  They performed a number of RCTs and find no clear evidence that any type of mask or masking is effective against transmission or protection against contraction of CV, flu or other respiratory viral infections.

Randomized control tests are the gold standard of testing.


I saw it. We wasted a lot of money on masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 06, 2023, 09:36:00 AM
Do physical measures such as hand-washing or wearing masks stop or slow down the spread of respiratory viruses? | Cochrane (https://www.cochrane.org/CD006207/ARI_do-physical-measures-such-hand-washing-or-wearing-masks-stop-or-slow-down-spread-respiratory-viruses)

Medical or surgical masks
Ten studies took place in the community, and two studies in healthcare workers. Compared with wearing no mask in the community studies only, wearing a mask may make little to no difference in how many people caught a flu-like illness/COVID-like illness (9 studies; 276,917 people); and probably makes little or no difference in how many people have flu/COVID confirmed by a laboratory test (6 studies; 13,919 people). Unwanted effects were rarely reported; discomfort was mentioned.
N95/P2 respirators
Four studies were in healthcare workers, and one small study was in the community. Compared with wearing medical or surgical masks, wearing N95/P2 respirators probably makes little to no difference in how many people have confirmed flu (5 studies; 8407 people); and may make little to no difference in how many people catch a flu-like illness (5 studies; 8407 people), or respiratory illness (3 studies; 7799 people). Unwanted effects were not well-reported; discomfort was mentioned.
Hand hygiene
Following a hand hygiene programme may reduce the number of people who catch a respiratory or flu-like illness, or have confirmed flu, compared with people not following such a programme (19 studies; 71,210 people), although this effect was not confirmed as statistically significant reduction when ILI and laboratory-confirmed ILI were analysed separately. Few studies measured unwanted effects; skin irritation in people using hand sanitiser was mentioned.
What are the limitations of the evidence?
Our confidence in these results is generally low to moderate for the subjective outcomes related to respiratory illness, but moderate for the more precisely defined laboratory-confirmed respiratory virus infection, related to masks and N95/P2 respirators. The results might change when further evidence becomes available. Relatively low numbers of people followed the guidance about wearing masks or about hand hygiene, which may have affected the results of the studies. 
How up to date is this evidence?
We included evidence published up to October 2022.
Authors' conclusions: 
The high risk of bias in the trials, variation in outcome measurement, and relatively low adherence with the interventions during the studies hampers drawing firm conclusions. There were additional RCTs during the pandemic related to physical interventions but a relative paucity given the importance of the question of masking and its relative effectiveness and the concomitant measures of mask adherence which would be highly relevant to the measurement of effectiveness, especially in the elderly and in young children.
There is uncertainty about the effects of face masks. The low to moderate certainty of evidence means our confidence in the effect estimate is limited, and that the true effect may be different from the observed estimate of the effect. The pooled results of RCTs did not show a clear reduction in respiratory viral infection with the use of medical/surgical masks. There were no clear differences between the use of medical/surgical masks compared with N95/P2 respirators in healthcare workers when used in routine care to reduce respiratory viral infection. Hand hygiene is likely to modestly reduce the burden of respiratory illness, and although this effect was also present when ILI and laboratory-confirmed influenza were analysed separately, it was not found to be a significant difference for the latter two outcomes. Harms associated with physical interventions were under-investigated.
There is a need for large, well-designed RCTs addressing the effectiveness of many of these interventions in multiple settings and populations, as well as the impact of adherence on effectiveness, especially in those most at risk of ARIs. 
Background: 
Viral epidemics or pandemics of acute respiratory infections (ARIs) pose a global threat. Examples are influenza (H1N1) caused by the H1N1pdm09 virus in 2009, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003, and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by SARS-CoV-2 in 2019. Antiviral drugs and vaccines may be insufficient to prevent their spread. This is an update of a Cochrane Review last published in 2020. We include results from studies from the current COVID-19 pandemic.
Objectives: 
To assess the effectiveness of physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of acute respiratory viruses.
Search strategy: 
We searched CENTRAL, PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, and two trials registers in October 2022, with backwards and forwards citation analysis on the new studies.
Selection criteria: 
We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and cluster-RCTs investigating physical interventions (screening at entry ports, isolation, quarantine, physical distancing, personal protection, hand hygiene, face masks, glasses, and gargling) to prevent respiratory virus transmission. 
Data collection and analysis: 
We used standard Cochrane methodological procedures.
Main results: 
We included 11 new RCTs and cluster-RCTs (610,872 participants) in this update, bringing the total number of RCTs to 78. Six of the new trials were conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic; two from Mexico, and one each from Denmark, Bangladesh, England, and Norway. We identified four ongoing studies, of which one is completed, but unreported, evaluating masks concurrent with the COVID-19 pandemic.
Many studies were conducted during non-epidemic influenza periods. Several were conducted during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, and others in epidemic influenza seasons up to 2016. Therefore, many studies were conducted in the context of lower respiratory viral circulation and transmission compared to COVID-19. The included studies were conducted in heterogeneous settings, ranging from suburban schools to hospital wards in high-income countries; crowded inner city settings in low-income countries; and an immigrant neighbourhood in a high-income country. Adherence with interventions was low in many studies.
The risk of bias for the RCTs and cluster-RCTs was mostly high or unclear.
Medical/surgical masks compared to no masks
We included 12 trials (10 cluster-RCTs) comparing medical/surgical masks versus no masks to prevent the spread of viral respiratory illness (two trials with healthcare workers and 10 in the community). Wearing masks in the community probably makes little or no difference to the outcome of influenza-like illness (ILI)/COVID-19 like illness compared to not wearing masks (risk ratio (RR) 0.95, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.84 to 1.09; 9 trials, 276,917 participants; moderate-certainty evidence. Wearing masks in the community probably makes little or no difference to the outcome of laboratory-confirmed influenza/SARS-CoV-2 compared to not wearing masks (RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.72 to 1.42; 6 trials, 13,919 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Harms were rarely measured and poorly reported (very low-certainty evidence).
N95/P2 respirators compared to medical/surgical masks
We pooled trials comparing N95/P2 respirators with medical/surgical masks (four in healthcare settings and one in a household setting). We are very uncertain on the effects of N95/P2 respirators compared with medical/surgical masks on the outcome of clinical respiratory illness (RR 0.70, 95% CI 0.45 to 1.10; 3 trials, 7779 participants; very low-certainty evidence). N95/P2 respirators compared with medical/surgical masks may be effective for ILI (RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.03; 5 trials, 8407 participants; low-certainty evidence). Evidence is limited by imprecision and heterogeneity for these subjective outcomes. The use of a N95/P2 respirators compared to medical/surgical masks probably makes little or no difference for the objective and more precise outcome of laboratory-confirmed influenza infection (RR 1.10, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.34; 5 trials, 8407 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Restricting pooling to healthcare workers made no difference to the overall findings. Harms were poorly measured and reported, but discomfort wearing medical/surgical masks or N95/P2 respirators was mentioned in several studies (very low-certainty evidence). 
One previously reported ongoing RCT has now been published and observed that medical/surgical masks were non-inferior to N95 respirators in a large study of 1009 healthcare workers in four countries providing direct care to COVID-19 patients. 
Hand hygiene compared to control
Nineteen trials compared hand hygiene interventions with controls with sufficient data to include in meta-analyses. Settings included schools, childcare centres and homes. Comparing hand hygiene interventions with controls (i.e. no intervention), there was a 14% relative reduction in the number of people with ARIs in the hand hygiene group (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.90; 9 trials, 52,105 participants; moderate-certainty evidence), suggesting a probable benefit. In absolute terms this benefit would result in a reduction from 380 events per 1000 people to 327 per 1000 people (95% CI 308 to 342). When considering the more strictly defined outcomes of ILI and laboratory-confirmed influenza, the estimates of effect for ILI (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.81 to 1.09; 11 trials, 34,503 participants; low-certainty evidence), and laboratory-confirmed influenza (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.63 to 1.30; 8 trials, 8332 participants; low-certainty evidence), suggest the intervention made little or no difference. We pooled 19 trials (71, 210 participants) for the composite outcome of ARI or ILI or influenza, with each study only contributing once and the most comprehensive outcome reported. Pooled data showed that hand hygiene may be beneficial with an 11% relative reduction of respiratory illness (RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.83 to 0.94; low-certainty evidence), but with high heterogeneity. In absolute terms this benefit would result in a reduction from 200 events per 1000 people to 178 per 1000 people (95% CI 166 to 188). Few trials measured and reported harms (very low-certainty evidence).
We found no RCTs on gowns and gloves, face shields, or screening at entry ports.
Health topics: 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 06, 2023, 09:38:13 AM
I did post that study about a week ago, FYI. It didn't get much attention.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Kris60 on February 06, 2023, 09:58:07 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 06, 2023, 09:00:18 AM
I wouldn't have quarantined after day 2.
Easier said than done.  I couldn’t participate in the meetings which was the whole purpose of the trip anyway. So, it’s not a good look to be out sight seeing when the company that paid for my flight, hotel, and all the food  and drink I’m consuming is requesting I quarantine.

Just not a battle I cared to fight.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 06, 2023, 10:08:23 AM
Under those circumstances, I get it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 06, 2023, 10:13:28 AM
ya gotta be sneaky
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 06, 2023, 10:16:46 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 06, 2023, 10:13:28 AM
ya gotta be sneaky
Wear a mask?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 06, 2023, 06:17:38 PM
Quote from: Kris60 on February 05, 2023, 11:45:18 PM
Welp, I avoided the Rona for about 3 years (or at least never tested positive) until last week.  Unfortunately, I was in New Orleans at a conference when it happened. So instead of getting to see a little of a town I’d never been to I spent the entire week quarantined in my hotel room.

Monday night into Tuesday morning was the worst of it.  Fever, chills, body aches, etc.  By Tuesday afternoon I was feeling somewhat better but had zero energy.  Wednesday-Friday I still wasn’t 100% but much better than I had been.  I actually snuck out Thursday afternoon and took a walk just to get outside and get some exercise.

Started a Z pack when I got home Friday night and have felt much better since then.
On the bright side, COV is among the mildest things you could catch in New Orleans. :)

We went to NOLA back in July with a couple who are friends of ours, and they both caught it there.  My wife and I had just had it 3 weeks earlier so we weren't overly conerned.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 06, 2023, 06:23:32 PM
I have another friend who, along with his girlfriend, prides himself on never having caught the rona.  To the point where if you make a casual remark in his presence along the lines of, "well everyone has either had it, or will get it soon" he feels the need to respond vehemently with a loud "NOT ME!"

It's weird to me, as if being able to claim not ever having had the rona is some badge of honor.  Especially because he's not currently taking any type of precautions whatsoever.  He travels constantly, attends events indoors with huge crowds, does not wear masks, does not social distance.  He's gotten the vaccine and boosters, but nothing more than that.  Honestly I'd be shocked if he actually, truly never has gotten it.  He most likely had a mild case at some point, that he thought was allergies, and never tested for it.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 06, 2023, 06:38:07 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 06, 2023, 06:23:32 PM
I have another friend who, along with his girlfriend, prides himself on never having caught the rona.  To the point where if you make a casual remark in his presence along the lines of, "well everyone has either had it, or will get it soon" he feels the need to respond vehemently with a loud "NOT ME!"

It's weird to me, as if being able to claim not ever having had the rona is some badge of honor.  Especially because he's not currently taking any type of precautions whatsoever.  He travels constantly, attends events indoors with huge crowds, does not wear masks, does not social distance.  He's gotten the vaccine and boosters, but nothing more than that.  Honestly I'd be shocked if he actually, truly never has gotten it.  He most likely had a mild case at some point, that he thought was allergies, and never tested for it.
I believe I've never had it. But it's certainly not something I'm bragging about. It's more that, given that I haven't been *THAT* careful ever since getting jabbed, and with kids who were in school receiving in-person instruction since fall 2020, it seems surprising I've somehow avoided it. 

I do wonder if my wife and I have both effectively "gotten it" in the sense that we've been exposed to very low viral loads that has caused us to build up hybrid immunity without ever being symptomatic. 

The kids got it a couple weeks ago. However due to holiday schedule swaps, they happened to get it during a 2 1/2 week stretch that they were at their mom's house, so I didn't have to deal with it. :57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 06, 2023, 06:46:55 PM
My daughter's had it twice now, son's had it once, and the wife and I have both had it (at least once, that we tested for).

The flu that we all got in late October/early November was much much worse, and the stomach virus that went around in December was even worse than that (but brief, thankfully).

I always said I didn't know if I'd ever had the flu, but assumed I hadn't.  And now I know that I'd never had it before last Fall, because it was no fun at all.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on February 06, 2023, 10:04:47 PM
I have never had an illness in my adult life that remotely matched H1N1 for pain/sickness and misery.   If I've had the rona, I haven't yielded a pos. test to date and if I've had it, it would've barely gotten my attention.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 06, 2023, 10:20:56 PM
lucky Dude
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 07, 2023, 06:57:35 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 06, 2023, 06:38:07 PM
I believe I've never had it. But it's certainly not something I'm bragging about. It's more that, given that I haven't been *THAT* careful ever since getting jabbed, and with kids who were in school receiving in-person instruction since fall 2020, it seems surprising I've somehow avoided it.

I do wonder if my wife and I have both effectively "gotten it" in the sense that we've been exposed to very low viral loads that has caused us to build up hybrid immunity without ever being symptomatic.

The kids got it a couple weeks ago. However due to holiday schedule swaps, they happened to get it during a 2 1/2 week stretch that they were at their mom's house, so I didn't have to deal with it. :57:
I believe you have.

TWICE.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 17, 2023, 01:52:42 PM
Natural immunity is a real thing.

Past SARS-CoV-2 infection protection against re-infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis (thelancet.com) (https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736(22)02465-5)


(https://i.imgur.com/huzNPnZ.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 18, 2023, 09:50:06 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/k7Oj9bl.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/ylz5Hza.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 18, 2023, 11:42:26 AM
I don’t Think I have had either, but kinda wish I had since I think it’s just a question of time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 18, 2023, 12:18:07 PM
You've had it.

Twice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 18, 2023, 12:43:28 PM
At this point if you haven't actually had it for real, and you're not living in complete isolation, then you probably have natural immunity to it, conferred by encountering other coronaviruses over the years and decades of your life.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 18, 2023, 02:15:14 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 18, 2023, 12:43:28 PM
At this point if you haven't actually had it for real, and you're not living in complete isolation, then you probably have natural immunity to it, conferred by encountering other coronaviruses over the years and decades of your life.
IOW, being a parent. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 18, 2023, 03:44:20 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 18, 2023, 02:15:14 PM
IOW, being a parent.
Yeah no kidding.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on February 19, 2023, 11:42:35 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 18, 2023, 12:43:28 PM
At this point if you haven't actually had it for real, and you're not living in complete isolation, then you probably have natural immunity to it, conferred by encountering other coronaviruses over the years and decades of your life.
I have wondered about this, as well. My 27-year old daughter has not been isolated. She has never tested +. She is 1.5 years out from graduation from physical therapy program. So she was in school when the pandemic started. I recall when she was at an internship in Tucson saying she was working with a patient not in the COVID ward who tested +. My daughter tested "minus" afterward. The past 1.5 years, despite she is a physical therapist, she moonlights at her college job she enjoys, as a checker at a convenience store. She sees lots of patients, and alternate weekends lots of people at the store.

I had it 3x. My wife hasn't had it at all.

This week I learned that in the Tucson branch of my family, my brother-in-law, my nephew, and a sister-in-law (who takes medication for cancer), had it. I think they are all doing well. They are well vaccinated, too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 20, 2023, 04:37:43 PM
Yay lockdowns!!

(https://i.imgur.com/QEfBov7.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 20, 2023, 04:40:48 PM
What month/year were school lockdowns imprudent?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on February 20, 2023, 04:51:49 PM
It's settled science!  School lockdowns were a f ing disaster.   With hindsight goggles I can understand the March through May/June 2020 period of e learning.  

Beyond that the subject has turned me into a permanent opponent of organized labor (teacher unions). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 20, 2023, 05:01:03 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 20, 2023, 04:37:43 PM
Yay lockdowns!!

(https://i.imgur.com/QEfBov7.png)
Yeh- but they are all good at knowing their gender options, and whether they are life long victims or oppressors.  They are also quite skilled at Tik-Tok. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 20, 2023, 05:02:29 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 20, 2023, 04:37:43 PM
Yay lockdowns!!

(https://i.imgur.com/QEfBov7.png)
How many were at grade level before COVID?  With no context, this isn't really meaningful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 20, 2023, 05:04:17 PM
Quote from: MarqHusker on February 20, 2023, 04:51:49 PM
It's settled science!  School lockdowns were a f ing disaster.  With hindsight goggles I can understand the March through May/June 2020 period of e learning. 

Beyond that the subject has turned me into a permanent opponent of organized labor (teacher unions).
So we KNEW the virus didn't spread from young to old by August of the next school year?  We KNEW it was safe before the first vaccines were produced and distributed early in 2021?
We knew those things?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 20, 2023, 05:48:00 PM
since the mid-80s I've been a permanent opponent of organized labor (teacher unions).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 20, 2023, 05:48:42 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 20, 2023, 05:02:29 PM
How many were at grade level before COVID?  With no context, this isn't really meaningful.
yup
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 20, 2023, 08:08:05 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 20, 2023, 05:48:42 PM
yup
Evidence?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 20, 2023, 08:08:57 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 20, 2023, 05:48:00 PM
since the mid-80s I've been a permanent opponent of organized labor (teacher unions).
Unions bad.
Got it.
Let the big corporations fuck the individual worker.  
Got it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 20, 2023, 08:52:46 PM
I dont like any union representing government workers including teacher unions

The reason is because  the government entity negotiating with the union has no skin in the game like a private company would

City, county or state officials spend the taxpayers money without direct involvement of the taxpayer

plus the fact that a union can either support not support the election of these government officials

this creates a conflict of interest

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 20, 2023, 08:58:07 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on February 20, 2023, 08:52:46 PM
I dont like any union representing government workers including teacher unions

The reason is because  the government entity negotiating with the union has no skin in the game like a private company would



How on earth can you believe this?  When a Dem is running things (federal, state, or local), I'm endlessly told by this crowd that they're slanted, ideological, and unethical.
But all of a sudden, when dealing with unions, the gov't is a benign straight-shooter?   

This is hilarious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 20, 2023, 09:12:38 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 20, 2023, 08:58:07 PM
How on earth can you believe this?  When a Dem is running things (federal, state, or local), I'm endlessly told by this crowd that they're slanted, ideological, and unethical.
But all of a sudden, when dealing with unions, the gov't is a benign straight-shooter? 

This is hilarious.
you have once again completely missed my point

the gov negotiating a contract with a union is the same as playing poker with someone elses money

this is not a shot at unions or the government

this is the wrong place to discuss this so I'll not delve any further into it here
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 21, 2023, 07:38:17 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 20, 2023, 05:04:17 PM
So we KNEW the virus didn't spread from young to old by August of the next school year?  We KNEW it was safe before the first vaccines were produced and distributed early in 2021?
We knew those things?
Yes, "we" knew.

And now "we" also know that masks don't work, natural immunity is better than the vaccine, and states that locked down the longest are a bloody mess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 21, 2023, 07:45:19 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 20, 2023, 05:02:29 PM
How many were at grade level before COVID?  With no context, this isn't really meaningful.
I just went and looked for data and the only sources that popped up were from CPS and the State. I'm not buying their garbage.

You're gonna have to do your own research on this one.

It's gonna be a feeble effort, because we all know how harmful this was to the kids.

There is a reason the AFT president (and many others) wants immunity. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 21, 2023, 08:17:43 AM
Link to original article.

Not a single student can do math at grade level in 53 Illinois schools. For reading, it’s 30 schools – Wirepoints | Wirepoints (https://wirepoints.org/not-a-single-student-can-do-math-at-grade-level-in-53-illinois-schools-for-reading-its-30-schools-wirepoints/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on February 21, 2023, 09:16:27 AM
For all the people who said they've never had covid, did they follow this up with a blood test that shows anti-bodies to covid?  Because they very well may have had covid with no symptoms.  

I think the best response is that they've never felt sick from covid or tested positive.  I tend to fall into the branch that most people who've never had covid probably did and just did not know it.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 21, 2023, 09:29:46 AM
In the beginning, antibody testing was free. I had it done in May 2020, and it proved I had Covid in March 2020 as there was no covid testing available at that time.

Shortly thereafter the free antibody testing was stopped. I think we know why.

The test ranges from $50 to $150 depending on where you go.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 21, 2023, 10:03:03 AM
Quote from: Gigem on February 21, 2023, 09:16:27 AM
For all the people who said they've never had covid, did they follow this up with a blood test that shows anti-bodies to covid?  Because they very well may have had covid with no symptoms. 

I think the best response is that they've never felt sick from covid or tested positive.  I tend to fall into the branch that most people who've never had covid probably did and just did not know it. 
That’s me. I have tested for it numerous times with negative results when I felt cold or flu like symptoms. But I have never checked for antibodies and would not be surprised if I had had it at some point but just didn’t know it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 21, 2023, 10:13:44 AM
That's me too. It's why I'm careful to clarify that when I say that "I haven't had COVID", that it's because I have no evidence that I HAVE, but I very easily could have had asymptomatic COVID at some point and not known it. I could potentially take an antibody test, but I have no incentive to do that so why bother? 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 21, 2023, 10:31:00 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 20, 2023, 08:08:05 PM
Evidence?
I don't have the evidence
was merely agreeing with you
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 21, 2023, 12:50:19 PM
Quote from: Gigem on February 21, 2023, 09:16:27 AM
For all the people who said they've never had covid, did they follow this up with a blood test that shows anti-bodies to covid?  Because they very well may have had covid with no symptoms. 

I think the best response is that they've never felt sick from covid or tested positive.  I tend to fall into the branch that most people who've never had covid probably did and just did not know it. 
Oh yes this, definitely.

That's why I said upthread that at this point, anyone who hasn't TRULY had it, and isn't living in complete isolation, must already have natural immunity to it.

Because every single person in an open, active, internally and externally mobile country like the USA, has been exposed to it by now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 21, 2023, 02:00:04 PM
there are at least 3 variants of covid

we keep talking about it like its one virus and it isnt

the latest one is much more mild then the original one

point being if you have never had covid stick around and one is coming to you

eventually

having had one of the variants may not keep you from catching a different variant later
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 21, 2023, 06:36:20 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 21, 2023, 07:45:19 AM
I just went and looked for data and the only sources that popped up were from CPS and the State. I'm not buying their garbage.

You're gonna have to do your own research on this one.

It's gonna be a feeble effort, because we all know how harmful this was to the kids.

There is a reason the AFT president (and many others) wants immunity.

You seem very tribal on this.  You looked for data and found some, but throw it out because....reasons.  
I'm not arguing against you that in-person learning is more effective than online learnng (for most kids), nor am I attempting to prove you or your link wrong.
But if zero kids are at grade level in those 53 schools now, but only 4 were at grade level in 2018, then that fact is no longer meaningful.
That's all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 21, 2023, 06:37:34 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 20, 2023, 04:40:48 PM
What month/year were school lockdowns imprudent?
I'll ask this again, until it gets answered.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 21, 2023, 06:40:18 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 21, 2023, 07:38:17 AM
Yes, "we" knew.

And now "we" also know that masks don't work, natural immunity is better than the vaccine, and states that locked down the longest are a bloody mess.
What month/year did we KNOW these things?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 21, 2023, 07:17:31 PM
Trump knew it immediately

So did Fauci 

their opinion just didn't match

just ask them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 21, 2023, 07:35:43 PM
Do I need to post Trump's every public statement about it from Jan to April of that year?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 21, 2023, 07:39:59 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 21, 2023, 06:37:34 PM
I'll ask this again, until it gets answered. 
Honestly we had evidence from France who didn't close their schools initially. Same with Sweden. 

The biggest thing is that we knew WELL before the 2020 fall school schedule that kids were basically not threatened by COVID. So it was never about protecting the kids. The question then became "well what about the teachers or someone elderly in the kids' home?" The France/Sweden data would have also justified that kids weren't as significant vector of transmission. 

But the smart thing would have been to give parents a choice during the 2020-21 school year of remote vs in-person instruction. That way parents who were fearful or perhaps had an at-risk person (immunocompromised, elderly, obese, diabetes, etc) in the house could choose remote, while those who didn't have those issues could choose in-person. You could have segregated the kids based on those choices such that older teachers could handle remote teaching while younger teachers (who had little to fear from COVID) could continue teaching in-person. 

It might have been a little messy. But it also would have helped many of the kids who fell WAY behind during that period.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 22, 2023, 07:45:18 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 21, 2023, 06:40:18 PM
What month/year did we KNOW these things? 
We were told immediately to not wear masks. Then we were told we had to wear masks.

We were told if we got Covid, we couldn't get it again.

We were told that if we got the vaccine, we couldn't get Covid.

Yet you still support these clowns.

Some states knew early on that the best thing to do was to protect the vulnerable (nursing homes) and to allow people make their own choices.

April/May 2020, to answer your silly question.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 22, 2023, 07:47:17 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 21, 2023, 07:35:43 PM
Do I need to post Trump's every public statement about it from Jan to April of that year?
Yeah, start with the one about closing travel to/from China.

Just don't do it on this thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 22, 2023, 08:22:30 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/kP8QjjO.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 22, 2023, 10:45:21 AM
no
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 22, 2023, 12:31:30 PM
Sadly, you are probably correct.

However, half of the states did learn a lesson - some earlier than others.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 22, 2023, 05:12:03 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 22, 2023, 12:31:30 PM
Sadly, you are probably correct.

However, half of the states did learn a lesson - some earlier than others.
Of course not. It was never based on science, despite the loud cackling and screaming of those who said it was.  
It was political, intentional and created to divide. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 23, 2023, 08:52:36 AM
https://paragoninstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/20230201_Zinberg_FreedomWinsStateswithLessRestrictiveCOVIDPoliciesOutperformedStateswithMoreRestrict.html

(https://i.imgur.com/b1qG3eR.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 23, 2023, 09:50:43 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 23, 2023, 08:52:36 AM
https://paragoninstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/20230201_Zinberg_FreedomWinsStateswithLessRestrictiveCOVIDPoliciesOutperformedStateswithMoreRestrict.html

(https://i.imgur.com/b1qG3eR.png)

Sounds exactly like what some folks around here were saying around May 2020.

Look, I understand that a lot of the decisions made, were "out of an abundance of caution" and I'm truly not making fun of that statement.  But what it necessarily implies, is that approaching these issues with "an abundance of caution" isn't necessarily the best route to take, and that all factors must be considered when forming public policy, not just one or two very narrow ones.

Still, I can forgive the folks that truly did make decisions "out of an abundance of caution."

What I can't forgive, is the people that made decisions based purely on politics, and especially identity politics.  Nor can I forgive the people that banged the "Follow the Science" drum well after it was evident that "The Science" didn't support their positions and decisions.  They used that phrase like a hammer to bludgeon their opposition, in an attempt to appear enlightened, and their failures created unnecessary social costs that will continue to harm our society for a generation.

Anyway, like I said almost three years ago, the spring of 2020 was the last time we'll ever see wholesale widespread government mandates for lockdowns, in the USA.  It will never be allowed to happen again.

Oh, and also, Area Under The Curve.  Learn it, know it, live it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 23, 2023, 10:07:41 AM
Quote from: utee94 on February 23, 2023, 09:50:43 AM
Sounds exactly like what some folks around here were saying around May 2020.

Look, I understand that a lot of the decisions made, were "out of an abundance of caution" and I'm truly not making fun of that statement.  But what it necessarily implies, is that approaching these issues with "an abundance of caution" isn't necessarily the best route to take, and that all factors must be considered when forming public policy, not just one or two very narrow ones.

Still, I can forgive the folks that truly did make decisions "out of an abundance of caution."

What I can't forgive, is the people that made decisions based purely on politics, and especially identity politics.  Nor can I forgive the people that banged the "Follow the Science" drum well after it was evident that "The Science" didn't support their positions and decisions.  They used that phrase like a hammer to bludgeon their opposition, in an attempt to appear enlightened, and their failures created unnecessary social costs that will continue to harm our society for a generation.

Anyway, like I said almost three years ago, the spring of 2020 was the last time we'll ever see wholesale widespread government mandates for lockdowns, in the USA.  It will never be allowed to happen again.

Oh, and also, Area Under The Curve.  Learn it, know it, live it.


Extremely well said.  Fully agree with every word.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 26, 2023, 10:33:28 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/asmLhHm.png)


https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-origin-china-lab-leak-807b7b0a?st=y5tnd8chr1i2yaz&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 26, 2023, 10:54:26 AM
most likely?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 26, 2023, 12:07:32 PM
Most likely, because I don't think we'll ever have enough data to say anything definitively about it.  The CCP has made sure of that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 26, 2023, 12:41:20 PM
most likely if there's substantial evidence that evidence was destroyed

such as witnesses disappeared
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on February 26, 2023, 01:41:21 PM
I'm honestly kind of surprised this thread still rolls on. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 26, 2023, 01:44:46 PM
So long as it's still in the news, it still rolls.

:043:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 26, 2023, 01:54:44 PM
someone keeps bumpin it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 26, 2023, 01:59:15 PM
Only when someone sees something of interest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 26, 2023, 02:53:22 PM
without this thread this would go over to the In Other Newa thread where we could turn it into a political subject

its better to let this thread live a little longer
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 26, 2023, 03:06:32 PM
I think it's relevant and prudent to continue to be interested in, and searching for facts regarding, the origin of the virus.

Ideally it could help us understand and manage future viral outbreaks. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 26, 2023, 03:20:14 PM
and perhaps prevent another event if funds for the research aren't funneled to CHINA
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 26, 2023, 06:21:41 PM
The Energy Department, which was previously undecided on the origin of the pandemic, now joins the FBI’s stance that the coronavirus likely spread due to a mishap at a Chinese laboratory, the Wall Street Journal (https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-origin-china-lab-leak-807b7b0a) reported, citing a classified intelligence report recently provided to the White House and key members of Congress.
The lab leak theory, or the theory that the virus came from a lab leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in Wuhan, China (https://www.foxnews.com/category/world/world-regions/china), was widely dismissed as a conspiracy theory and "misinformation" by Democrats, major news outlets, scientists and social media companies in the early stages of the pandemic.
Now, Republicans are calling for accountability from the Chinese Communist Party as evidence mounts that it is to blame for the pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 26, 2023, 07:20:10 PM
How about calling for accountability from Democrats, major news outlets, scientists and social media companies who dismissed this as a conspiracy theory and "misinformation" without solid knowledge?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on February 26, 2023, 09:49:08 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 26, 2023, 01:44:46 PM
So long as it's still in the news, it still rolls.

:043:
MSM setting our agenda (I kid)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 26, 2023, 11:53:31 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 26, 2023, 07:20:10 PM
How about calling for accountability from Democrats, major news outlets, scientists and social media companies who dismissed this as a conspiracy theory and "misinformation" without solid knowledge?
For those who simply said "the evidence doesn't point to that," there is no accountability needed.  
.
For those who definitively said it wasn't a lab leak, then sure.  They made the leap and would have to support it with evidence.
.
For those hoping and wishing upon a star that it was a lab leak (without the evidence) while frothing at the mouth.....it's not an accountability thing - they're the problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 27, 2023, 07:07:39 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 26, 2023, 11:53:31 PM
For those who simply said "the evidence doesn't point to that," there is no accountability needed. 
.
For those who definitively said it wasn't a lab leak, then sure.  They made the leap and would have to support it with evidence.
.
For those hoping and wishing upon a star that it was a lab leak (without the evidence) while frothing at the mouth.....it's not an accountability thing - they're the problem.
Too predictable.  The woke response!  Right on cue. 

Your going to need a bigger broom and a bigger rug to sweep your BS under.

Like so many other positions the far left has taken ( the laptop, the masks, the effectiveness of the vaccines, etc.) which were never supported by facts or science, and are now being exposed, this is is just another example.

it was not only fair, but actually it was responsible to simply try to understand the source of the pandemic. Asking whether it originated in China and how it got free is a reasonable and fair question.

however, anyone who wanted to even ask that question was quickly shut down by the Democrats, the media, and social media, and they are the ones whose mouths were frothing.

They are well trained in their messaging and simply did not want anyone to focus on blame outside of their favorite and only target.

Of course they now want that swept under the rug and don’t want to take accountability for any of it. You’re in the wrong echo chamber dude
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 27, 2023, 08:30:04 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 26, 2023, 11:53:31 PM
For those who simply said "the evidence doesn't point to that," there is no accountability needed. 
.
For those who definitively said it wasn't a lab leak, then sure.  They made the leap and would have to support it with evidence.
.
For those hoping and wishing upon a star that it was a lab leak (without the evidence) while frothing at the mouth.....it's not an accountability thing - they're the problem.
I've been saying it was a lab leak from early on, that it was engineered, and unleashed intentionally.

I was ridiculed by many. But yeah, I'm the problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 27, 2023, 09:13:19 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on February 26, 2023, 09:49:08 PM
MSM setting our agenda (I kid)
I've never considered WSJ as part of the MSM.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 27, 2023, 09:23:43 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 26, 2023, 11:53:31 PM
For those who simply said "the evidence doesn't point to that," there is no accountability needed. 
.
For those who definitively said it wasn't a lab leak, then sure.  They made the leap and would have to support it with evidence.
.
For those hoping and wishing upon a star that it was a lab leak (without the evidence) while frothing at the mouth.....it's not an accountability thing - they're the problem.
#1 - true, but we'd have to know about the evidence they are referring to.  Evidence at the time?  Evidence obviously covered up?
#2 - true. yes, they should be held accountable and asked for their "evidence". this was my point.
#3 - frothing aside, because there's plenty of frothing on both sides.... their hopes and wishes seemed to have come true.  Better to be lucky than good.  I don't see a problem with wishing against the Chinese Government.
_______________________
it's all about the evidence let's go back and put it on the table for everyone to see.
Including this "new" evidence
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 27, 2023, 09:57:46 AM
It's not hard.


1. The CCP.
2. A lab in Wuhan, doing gain of function research (with US funding).
3. A tenuous (at best) relationship with US leaders due to policies enacted by said leaders.


It's simple, really.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 27, 2023, 10:14:02 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 27, 2023, 09:57:46 AM
It's not hard.


1. The CCP.
2. A lab in Wuhan, doing gain of function research (with US funding).
3. A tenuous (at best) relationship with US leaders due to policies enacted by said leaders.


It's simple, really.
blame Trump
simple
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on February 27, 2023, 11:22:40 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 27, 2023, 09:13:19 AM
I've never considered WSJ as part of the MSM.
I mean, if it’s not, then MSM is an even more meaningless term than it already was. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on February 27, 2023, 01:12:23 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 27, 2023, 09:57:46 AM
It's not hard.


1. The CCP.
2. A lab in Wuhan, doing gain of function research (with US funding).
3. A tenuous (at best) relationship with US leaders due to policies enacted by said leaders.


It's simple, really.
Don’t forget: flights from Wuhan to other parts of China forbidden, but flights from Wuhan to international destinations, ok, and lastly, CCP closing off any inquiries or investigation. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 27, 2023, 01:19:20 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on February 27, 2023, 01:12:23 PM
Don’t forget: flights from Wuhan to other parts of China forbidden, but flights from Wuhan to international destinations, ok, and lastly, CCP closing off any inquiries or investigation.
thats exactly why I blaim China for this 

at best it was very bad judgement and at worst it was an act of war
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 27, 2023, 01:57:59 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on February 27, 2023, 01:12:23 PM
Don’t forget: flights from Wuhan to other parts of China forbidden, but flights from Wuhan to international destinations, ok, and lastly, CCP closing off any inquiries or investigation.
I could have spelled that out, but to me it all falls under my number 1.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 27, 2023, 06:19:09 PM
The Energy Department, which was previously undecided on the origin of the pandemic, now joins the FBI’s stance that the coronavirus likely spread due to a mishap at a Chinese laboratory
__________________________________________

silly question, I know but, ......... why the energy department???

Department of health, the CDC, the CIA, Homeland Security???
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 27, 2023, 06:38:52 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on February 27, 2023, 09:23:43 AM
#1 - true, but we'd have to know about the evidence they are referring to.  Evidence at the time?  Evidence obviously covered up?
#2 - true. yes, they should be held accountable and asked for their "evidence". this was my point.
#3 - frothing aside, because there's plenty of frothing on both sides.... their hopes and wishes seemed to have come true.  Better to be lucky than good.  I don't see a problem with wishing against the Chinese Government.
_______________________
it's all about the evidence let's go back and put it on the table for everyone to see.
Including this "new" evidence

dept of energy is not disclosing this "new" evidence
but, they admit, "low confidence"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on February 28, 2023, 11:56:14 PM
I don't think there is any way we'll find out. If it escaped the lab, the lab people might not even know, and if they did know, it would be covered up just as tight as possible by the person who erred, and if not successfully covered up, it would be covered up by the CCP. 
Our WWII hx lesson in a 1960s elementary school regarding Hitler was that while there was evidence he committed suicide uncertainty remained as to whether he escaped. We didn't know with certainty until after the Soviet Union disintegrated. 
If the virus escaped the lab, and if the Chinese government actually knows it, maybe we will learn someday, should the Chinese government fall. Strange things happen with governments. I am not looking for the CCP and its government to fall in the foreseeable future.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 01, 2023, 07:38:34 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on February 28, 2023, 11:56:14 PM
I don't think there is any way we'll find out. If it escaped the lab, the lab people might not even know, and if they did know, it would be covered up just as tight as possible by the person who erred, and if not successfully covered up, it would be covered up by the CCP.
Our WWII hx lesson in a 1960s elementary school regarding Hitler was that while there was evidence he committed suicide uncertainty remained as to whether he escaped. We didn't know with certainty until after the Soviet Union disintegrated.
If the virus escaped the lab, and if the Chinese government actually knows it, maybe we will learn someday, should the Chinese government fall. Strange things happen with governments. I am not looking for the CCP and its government to fall in the foreseeable future.
They were disappeared.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 01, 2023, 09:14:26 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/G7vl71O.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 01, 2023, 10:01:23 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/rFmnL4H.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 01, 2023, 10:02:17 AM
like the entire state of South Dakota
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 01, 2023, 10:09:13 AM
COVID-19 pandemic 'most likely' started in Wuhan lab, FBI Director Christopher Wray says (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/covid-19-pandemic-most-likely-started-in-wuhan-lab-fbi-director-christopher-wray-says/ar-AA185NiR)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 01, 2023, 10:19:36 AM
I understand the FBI looking into this

but, I'm not sure I believe anything from them
(obviously more credible than the CCP)

the Energy Dept??

What other government entities have been poking around and reported something?

the CIA?  the CDC, Homeland Security, the Pentagon?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 01, 2023, 12:20:24 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 01, 2023, 10:02:17 AM
like the entire state of South Dakota
The entire state of South Dakota was disappeared by the CCP? 

Wait... If that was true, would anyone notice? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 01, 2023, 01:03:27 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 01, 2023, 10:01:23 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/rFmnL4H.png)
the entire state of South Dakota doesn't have TV
didn't acknowledge a pandemic
didn't mandate masks
didn't shut down schools
didn't require vaccines
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 01, 2023, 01:04:25 PM
and no one noticed

well, except for some folks in western Minnesooota

and no one noticed about them either
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 01, 2023, 01:36:27 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 01, 2023, 01:03:27 PM
the entire state of South Dakota doesn't have TV
It was a joke... I knew what you were referring to, but since you didn't quote it, I decided to act like you were referring to the post above it talking about people being disappeared. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 01, 2023, 01:41:59 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 01, 2023, 10:01:23 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/rFmnL4H.png)
HA! That's all Folks,lock the freakin' thread 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 01, 2023, 01:45:54 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 01, 2023, 10:19:36 AM
the Energy Dept??

What other government entities have been poking around and reported something?

the CIA?  the CDC, Homeland Security, the Pentagon?
Meteor strike,oh please,oh please,oh please,
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 01, 2023, 02:13:18 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 01, 2023, 01:36:27 PM
It was a joke... I knew what you were referring to, but since you didn't quote it, I decided to act like you were referring to the post above it talking about people being disappeared.
so, you're the guy stirring the pot around here
dammit!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 01, 2023, 02:13:44 PM
A meteor strike on the CDC would not be good for CDawg.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 01, 2023, 02:17:02 PM
would he need another shot of the shingles vaccine?

he hates those
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 01, 2023, 03:18:33 PM
Depending on the size it could take out his house. 

The CDC infectious disease unit is in Atlanta...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 01, 2023, 05:13:04 PM
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/house-dems-signal-opposition-declassifying-info-covid-19-origins


You called it fearless: shockingly, one of the tribes wants to keep the information on Covid origins classified.  I can’t imagine why? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 01, 2023, 05:19:46 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pO1HC8pHZw0
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 02, 2023, 07:49:33 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on March 01, 2023, 05:13:04 PM
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/house-dems-signal-opposition-declassifying-info-covid-19-origins


You called it fearless: shockingly, one of the tribes wants to keep the information on Covid origins classified.  I can’t imagine why?
I'd like to know why it was classified in the first place.

Oh wait.

I already know why.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 03, 2023, 12:07:59 PM
Oman has mandated masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 03, 2023, 03:23:54 PM
Oh, man!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 05, 2023, 08:32:40 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/4LbpQyC.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/nxu5ziK.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 06, 2023, 06:26:24 AM
I noticed a fair number of masks being worn in Athens, GR, more than other places, save Oman.  There was basically zero impact by COVID on our trip.  We were asked three questions prior to boarding, that was it.  (We didn't go very far into Oman for other reasons.)

The elevators on the ship would get packed as folks returned from shore excursions.  Some older folks asn Asians wore masks.

I saw various older signs about the six foot thing, nobody cared, at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 06, 2023, 08:28:21 AM
This is just so f'ing stupid. 

Novak Djokovic withdraws from Indian Wells tennis event after his waiver request is denied (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/tennis/novak-djokovic-withdraws-from-indian-wells-tennis-event-after-his-waiver-request-is-denied/ar-AA18g9E1)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on March 06, 2023, 11:59:04 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 06, 2023, 08:28:21 AM
This is just so f'ing stupid.

Novak Djokovic withdraws from Indian Wells tennis event after his waiver request is denied (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/tennis/novak-djokovic-withdraws-from-indian-wells-tennis-event-after-his-waiver-request-is-denied/ar-AA18g9E1)
He just needs to join the Hundreds of people crossing the border in the southwest.  
 Hell- He can have a violent criminal record, have Covid currently, and pack tons of fentanyl, and he’ll still get in
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 06, 2023, 12:48:46 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on March 06, 2023, 11:59:04 AM
He just needs to join the Hundreds of people crossing the border in the southwest. 
 Hell- He can have a violent criminal record, have Covid currently, and pack tons of fentanyl, and he’ll still get in
careful there youre starting to sound like me

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on March 06, 2023, 03:49:20 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on March 06, 2023, 11:59:04 AM
He just needs to join the Hundreds of people crossing the border in the southwest. 
 Hell- He can have a violent criminal record, have Covid currently, and pack tons of fentanyl, and he’ll still get in
Wait, I can play in a pro tennis tournament if I just bring enough fentanyl?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 06, 2023, 03:52:38 PM
tons plural is quite enuff
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 07, 2023, 07:50:21 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on March 06, 2023, 03:49:20 PM
Wait, I can play in a pro tennis tournament if I just bring enough fentanyl?
Nope, but it will gain you admission into the USA.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 07, 2023, 08:07:08 AM
A lot of folks get admission by crossing and reporting to BP and claiming asylum, which is within the current rules.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 07, 2023, 09:34:47 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 07, 2023, 08:07:08 AM
A lot of folks get admission by crossing and reporting to BP and claiming asylum, which is within the current rules.
and a lot of folks dont but get in anyway
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 07, 2023, 09:45:30 AM
Most would agree the "System" is broken, not as many agree on how to fix it.

At any rate, I noted that Covid had nearly zero impact on our 3 week cruise and trip.  I was thinking a large cruise ship is basically a Petri dish for infections.  

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 07, 2023, 09:53:20 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 07, 2023, 09:45:30 AM
Most would agree the "System" is broken, not as many agree on how to fix it.

At any rate, I noted that Covid had nearly zero impact on our 3 week cruise and trip.  I was thinking a large cruise ship is basically a Petri dish for infections. 


Most, if not all, cruise lines spent millions to upgrade filtration systems that were already very good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2023, 06:51:42 AM
I get an email each day from the NYT (it's free) on varying topics, this is part of today's:


A new House committee investigating the origins of Covid opened its first public hearing (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/C4RKqOXSPA0O-vPzRkAMHg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRl7EuaP0TmaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8wMy8wOC91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9jb3ZpZC1sYWItbGVhay1ob3VzZS1oZWFyaW5nLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIzMDMwOSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD04NzIxOSZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTE1MzM2ODkxMCZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTEyNzI2NyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9OGU1ZDJhMmI1ZTQ4YTY5NjU2MTkyY2MzYWYwYTkwMGNXA255dEIKZACaxglk-evubFIRamNkb29tOUBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) yesterday with plenty of political theater. Republicans accused Dr. Anthony Fauci of covering up the virus’s origins, and Democrats criticized those claims as biased and unsubstantiated. But lawmakers displayed bipartisan agreement on one point: The virus really may have come from a laboratory in China.

“Whether it was a lab leak or infection through animals, I think we’ve got to pursue both of those paths if we are ever to get the truth,” Representative Kweisi Mfume, Democrat of Maryland, said.
Such agreement might have been surprising not long ago. From the start of the pandemic, the idea of a lab leak was fraught. Some scientists treated it as an outright conspiracy theory. Many Democratic politicians, journalists and others instead embraced the explanation that the virus jumped from animals to humans.
Now, the F.B.I. and the Energy Department, which employ leading U.S. scientists, say a lab is the likely origin. But they remain uncertain, and four other U.S. intelligence agencies say, with low confidence, that it more likely originated in animals.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2023, 06:52:59 AM
My own "notion" I've never seen suggested.  That is that the Chinese lab wanted bat specimens and sent animal finders to collect them in China and the bats were infected and the animal dudes contracted COVID and then spread it.

I don't know of course if this is realistic, but it seems possible anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 09, 2023, 07:01:24 AM
Need to get over that zoonotic hump, friend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2023, 07:11:52 AM
I'd traverse that hump given solid information, which I doubt we'll ever have.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 09, 2023, 07:29:29 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 09, 2023, 07:11:52 AM
I'd traverse that hump given solid information, which I doubt we'll ever have. 
We had solid information back in April 2020. (Some? Most?) People just didn't want to hear it.

Made in a lab with our money. Intentionally spread 'round the world.

CCP Mission Accomplished.

Even the FBI is acknowledging. Of course...


(https://i.imgur.com/PLQVyYM.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2023, 08:25:52 AM
Leaked from the lab is very different from contrived in the lab and leaked with intent.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 09, 2023, 08:27:49 AM
CCP.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on March 09, 2023, 08:48:49 AM
Leaked from a lab that works on gain of function with Coronaviruses. Sometimes, the most logical explanation is also the simplest. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 09, 2023, 04:42:19 PM
Maybe, I think "we" really don't know much about the origins.  And likely won't learn more.  It strikes me as conjecture.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2023, 07:53:25 AM
Many investigations from around the world are yielding results that say it came from a lab.

This was a conspiracy theory 3 years ago, if you recall.

Maybe it came from a bat in a wet market inside the lab?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 10, 2023, 08:01:56 AM
Sure, a lot of places now say it's possible it leaked from the lab.  I think "we" all knew that was a possibility years ago.  What has shaded is the probability of one over the other, though many "investigations" still maintain it came from the market.  And it could be an entirely "natural" virus that leaked from said lab, unintentionally.  

There clearly is dispute about its origins.  I offered a third possibility.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2023, 08:02:55 AM
I offered a fourth.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 10, 2023, 08:49:49 AM
but, are youse guys "experts"?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 10, 2023, 09:06:21 AM
I'm not, I just read enough to figure the answer is not known, and not knowable.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2023, 09:08:18 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 10, 2023, 08:49:49 AM
but, are youse guys "experts"?
Just a guy with common sense, which in some cases is better than being an "expert". Particularly an "expert" who is paid or compelled to come up with the preferred answer(s).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 10, 2023, 10:18:53 AM
I think a big part of this is the virus itself which top scientistd have stated looks to be engineered and not natural
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 10, 2023, 10:44:58 AM
Many "top scientists" say it's not engineered, some do.  We don't know, in my opinion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 10, 2023, 10:48:34 AM
SARS-COV-2 as an artificial creation: scientific arguments and counterarguments - PMC (nih.gov) (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7982270/)

In conclusion, all these specific features observed in SARS-COV-2 helps scientists to rule out the idea that this pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus is the result of a man-made action that could be either engineered in the laboratory or further created as a bioweapon out of conspiracy. Recent discoveries revealed evidence of the presence of the virus around the world before it emerged in Asia. There is growing evidence of its true origin as a global organism that was waiting for favorable conditions to emerge instead of originating in China. Recent testing of sewage in Barcelona had suggested that the virus may have been present in the Spanish city in March 2019, many months before China identified the pathogen in the city of Wuhan in December 2019. Based on the results available, it is most probably that this is a natural-born virus that emerged from an animal host, most likely a bat, without any direct pieces of evidence about its intermediate host. Nevertheless, researchers are yet to find a definitive answer to which animal serves as an intermediate host for this virus and disease. Besides, questions on the role of SARS-CoV-2 in T cells have been raised, especially with evidence from recent postmortem findings of its preferential impact on CD 4+ and CD 8+ T cells [24 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7982270/#R24)–26 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7982270/#R26)]. Therefore, further studying of all microorganisms is mandatory in order to understand how they evolve, how they live, and how they transmit, which may be the key solution in hindering the spread of COVID-19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2023, 10:53:46 AM
NIH... OK then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 10, 2023, 11:01:33 AM
The authors are not affiliated with the NIH.

1.Faculty of Medicine, Quest International University Perak, Ipoh, Perak, Malaysia
2.School of Pharmacy, KPJ Healthcare University College, Nilai, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia
3.Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Cyberjaya, Cyberjaya, Selangor, Malaysia
4.Biofunctional Molecule Exploratory Research Group (BMEX), School of Pharmacy, Monash University Malaysia, Bandar Sunway, Malaysia
5.Pengiran Anak Puteri Rashidah Sa’adatul Bolkiah Institute of Health Sciences, Universiti Brunei Darussalam, Gadong, Brunei Darussalam
* Corresponding Authors: Ching Siang Tan, PhD School of Pharmacy, KPJ Healthcare University College, Lot PT 17010 Persiaran Seriemas, Kota Seriemas, 71800 Nilai, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia. E-mail: 
ym.ude.cujpk@gnaisct

Long Chiau Ming, PhD. PAP Rashidah Sa’adatul Bolkiah Institute of Health Sciences, Universiti Brunei Darussalam, Tungku Link Rd, Gadong BE 1410, Brunei Darussalam. E-mail: 
ude.htab@gnol.gnim



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2023, 11:25:13 AM
Authors compelled.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 10, 2023, 11:28:12 AM
Long Chiau Ming
Ching Siang Tan
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on March 10, 2023, 11:28:45 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2023, 11:25:13 AM
Authors compelled.

Just imagine what the "Conflicts:" section at the end of their peer-reviewed papers must look like :72:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on March 10, 2023, 11:53:24 AM
I'm taking an ethics class this term, which involves a bunch of reading and written responses to the reading material.  Some of the papers in this section relate to the pandemic, some of which go back to Dec. 2020.

I'm not sure exactly what a response to this somewhat disjointed and unrelated material might be--hard to find something to focus on when the topics covered in the module are so disparate--but I think it's going to be something along the lines of not believing something just because some academic in a journal said so. 

As relates to the covid pandemic, I've mentioned before I work for a doctor who's our county health authority, so she feeds me all the stuff we are to tell patients when asked.  Her info comes from the CDC, mainly.  I (we've) watched it change throughout the course of the ordeal.  Okay, science nerds do the best they can with what they have at the time, fair enough.  Yet I'm losing track of the number of times old-fashioned common sense concerns and ideas, previously labeled conspiracy theories in the moment, later turn out to have merit.  At the time it was "arguing with the science" or "denying the science" or whatever. 

I see ethical concerns regarding how much news outlets and even the business sector who controls large amounts of people's livelihoods bash people for trying to make their own decisions about their situation and for "not following the science."  It ranges from disingenuous and arrogant (thinking you know it all, right now, without ANY longitudinal studies) to outright dangerous (pretending or truly believing you know something for certain that you just don't) and misinformative (presenting everything as binary black and white, i.e, a "conspiracy theory" may be mostly inaccurate yet it does have merit in some circumstances, i.e., everybody take the vaccine or you deny science but in reality, yeah, turns out some people really should not have it, oops).  Some of the things one of these papers and opinion pieces stump for have now been debunked several times over.  I figure if they're gonna make us all read this stuff and write an ethics-centered response, then I should get to hammer the BS they're having us read. 

Hypothetically, we're only supposed to source class material in our critiques, which I will do, but boy do I have some other sources and ideas to throw at them.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 10, 2023, 12:00:17 PM
There are a lot of papers out there to read about origins of COVID, all I've seen are at least somewhat ambiguous, at least they give some respect to the other theories.

Ergo, we simply don't know.  Folks reach conclusions like this based on politics and what they wnat to be true, as with many other things.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2023, 12:00:47 PM
Good stuff MDT. Sounds like a fun class.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2023, 12:04:26 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 10, 2023, 12:00:17 PM
There are a lot of papers out there to read about origins of COVID, all I've seen are at least somewhat ambiguous, at least they give some respect to the other theories.

Ergo, we simply don't know.  Folks reach conclusions like this based on politics and what they wnat to be true, as with many other things.
I have no conclusions other than this was not natural. That conclusion is not based on politics at all. It's based on government (unelected bureaucrats) mistrust.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 10, 2023, 12:06:45 PM
Basing any conclusion on mistrust is, to me, a conclusion based on inference and not data.

I may not trust a source of information very often, but usually they will be correct on occasion.  I'm not going the other way just because I don't trust them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2023, 12:13:48 PM
We were lied to. This is proven. How can you trust anyone who lies to you?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 10, 2023, 12:18:02 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 10, 2023, 12:06:45 PM
Basing any conclusion on mistrust is, to me, a conclusion based on inference and not data.

I may not trust a source of information very often, but usually they will be correct on occasion.  I'm not going the other way just because I don't trust them.
forming an opinion is very much based on trust if you dont trust your source that will have an affect on your opinion

the source you used is funded by the US government which is the same folks who said if you like your doctor you can keep your doctor

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 10, 2023, 12:19:07 PM
I disagree were were lied to, but if we were, the person or entity that lied could be telling the truth later on.  I see this as an unresolved situation simply because there is no compelling evidence either way.  Anyway, it has no impact that I can see in real terms.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2023, 12:23:46 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 10, 2023, 12:19:07 PM
I disagree were were lied to, but if we were, the person or entity that lied could be telling the truth later on.  I see this as an unresolved situation simply because there is no compelling evidence either way.  Anyway, it has no impact that I can see in real terms. 
Countless emails among top NIH officials beg to differ.

Anything that went against a natural occurrence was suppressed and even penalized. People lost jobs for questioning "THE SCIENCE".

We were told that "THE SCIENCE" was settled. Clearly it was not, but if you questioned anything, you were a right-wing conspiracy theorist.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 10, 2023, 12:28:59 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2023, 12:13:48 PM
We were lied to. This is proven. How can you trust anyone who lies to you?
Knowing that you've been lied to by a person/entity in the past is not reason to automatically believe that the truth is always the direct opposite of what that person/entity tells you now. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 10, 2023, 12:39:18 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 10, 2023, 12:28:59 PM
Knowing that you've been lied to by a person/entity in the past is not reason to automatically believe that the truth is always the direct opposite of what that person/entity tells you now.


and here is where I post......


"A scorpion asks a frog to carry him over a river. The frog is afraid of being stung, but the scorpion argues that if it did so, both would sink and the scorpion would drown. The frog then agrees, but midway across the river the scorpion does indeed sting the frog, dooming them both. When asked why, the scorpion points out that this is its nature."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 10, 2023, 12:42:08 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2023, 12:13:48 PM
We were lied to. This is proven. How can you trust anyone who lies to you?
Bingo Fauci should swing 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 10, 2023, 12:42:18 PM
I've yet to see where "we" were lied to by anyone in real authority.  They made mistakes no doubt.

At any rate, if someone did lie, it hardly means they aren't being truthful now.  I'd need to see the specifics to form a conclusion.  Based on what I read, the origins of COVID are still unknown with any certainty, no matter if someone lied or not.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 10, 2023, 12:42:56 PM
Can anyone cite verbatim a lie Fauci told where he knew the truth and said otherwise?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 10, 2023, 12:46:25 PM
Others have looked into and I've known one was an actuall detective. AndCindy used to do product and personnel research and has followed the whole viris and vax developmen.tBelieve what you will the conversation and information is quite extensive and I'm not typing up their dissertations to convince anyone on the internet
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2023, 01:02:28 PM
During the February 1 call, a group of evolutionary virologists suggested that Covid may have stemmed from a lab accident and may have been genetically engineered, according to the memo. But just three days later, four of the experts who attended that meeting wrote a paper, later published in Nature Medicine, that argued Covid had “mutations” that supported the explanation that it had been transmitted to humans from animals. Emails obtained by the subcommittee revealed that Fauci “prompted” the paper, as one of its authors put it in a cover email to a scientific journal.


Fauci Responds to Ex-CDC Director’s ‘Disturbing’ Lab-Leak Suppression Accusation (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fauci-responds-to-ex-cdc-director-s-disturbing-lab-leak-suppression-accusation/ar-AA18sVr9)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 10, 2023, 02:44:05 PM
hah, the Fox news thing going on a week ago or currently.....

supposedly, big shots at Fox news admitted to lying about election stuff or something

my question is..... if they lied about election theories, why would you believe their admission that they lied?

folks just believe what they want to believe

I stand by the idea that after the entire run of the COVID pandemic, We've learned NOTHING!

now, some people here and some above average rational thinking individuals have learned some things.
but, as a whole, the nation has learned nothing

we don't know if masks make much difference, we don't know if the vaccine makes much difference, we don't know the origin of the virus, we sure as hell don't know who to trust next time this happens
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 10, 2023, 02:51:14 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 10, 2023, 02:44:05 PM
my question is..... if they lied about election theories, why would you believe their admission that they lied?

One could evaluate such questions by looking at motivation.  Fox News was being flanked on the right by OAN and NM and made a decision, apparently, based on ratings needs ($$$) to go with the massive election fraud charge they admitted privately that they knew was false.  These admissions were not in public until recently with disclosure because of the Dominion law suit.  So, ostensibly they said knew the election fraud theory was wrong in camera where they had no motivation to lie.

All this was mostly pushed by their "opinion" folks like Hannity et al.  What they said in private at the time was very differently from what they were pushing on their opinion shows.  Ratings ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 10, 2023, 02:58:22 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 10, 2023, 02:44:05 PM
hah, the Fox news thing going on a week ago or currently.....

supposedly, big shots at Fox news admitted to lying about election stuff or something

my question is..... if they lied about election theories, why would you believe their admission that they lied?

Because the fact that they were caught "lying" was that they proven to be admitting privately behind the scenes that it was BS. 

When someone's public statements don't match their private statements, the most logical thing to assume is that the public statement is a lie. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 10, 2023, 03:52:07 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 10, 2023, 02:58:22 PM
Because the fact that they were caught "lying" was that they proven to be admitting privately behind the scenes that it was BS.

When someone's public statements don't match their private statements, the most logical thing to assume is that the public statement is a lie.

Thank you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on March 11, 2023, 11:55:30 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 10, 2023, 12:42:56 PM
Can anyone cite verbatim a lie Fauci told where he knew the truth and said otherwise?

Off the top of my head, there was one of his stints where masks were good (he went back and forth on that a few times) but private emails to friends later obtained from that same time showed him telling them there was no need for masks.  This doesn't prove "lying" of course, but the alternative is incompetence and either way, it doesn't engender trust.

But this whole thread started with your response to my class where you talked about origins of the virus.  FYI, I was not talking about that at all.  I don't claim to know anything special there.  I get mini, dumbed-down briefs about treatments, risks associated with the virus, vaccine stuff....only stuff relevant to patients calling their doctor with health questions.  I have never claimed to know anything about the origin of the virus.  What I can tell you is that the CDC and every other entity has (predictably) changed their tune on a number of things, a number of times.  That's what I meant.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 11, 2023, 11:59:12 AM
one of my friends got the COVID 7 weeks ago

still not back to normal
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on March 11, 2023, 12:50:36 PM
The whole "election fraud" conversation makes me sad.  The more people tell me it's proven to not be true, the more I shake my head.  How can something that's never been investigated on multiple fronts be shown true or false?

You could define "election tampering" broadly in three ways:
1)  propaganda--news outlets report falsehoods, fail to report truths, and tilt hard toward one candidate with demonstrable impact.  The latter part was investigated for the 2016 election cycle and most analysts concluded Google alone was responsible for about a 500,000 vote shift, leading some to speculate Trump may have won the 2016 popular vote if the media had treated both candidates equally. 
2)  circumvented laws--a state's election laws are violated or circumvented in some way in the process of an election
3)  outright fraud--ballot stuffing, ballot stealing, machine/software tampering, etc. 

1 and 2 aren't even in question.  The 2016 election cycle media treated Trump like Mother Teresa compared to the 2020 election cycle media.  That I know of, no one has tried to quantify how much that impacted votes, but if 2016 was found to be impactful, 2020 was multiply so.  The part about laws, again, nobody has ever focused on it or tried to explain or defend instances in question.  The Wisconsin Supreme Court's (I believe it was Wisconsin) opinion on the case that was brought was eye-opening.  It was a 4-3 decision, with the majority opinion basically saying "Eh, okay, yeah, looks like some BS went on here, but really, do we want to open that can of worms?" while the dissenting opinion was a scathing rebuke of turning a blind eye to the evidence presented.  It's been a couple years, and obviously I'm beyond paraphrasing, but the point is this is but one example of credible skepticism.  Not proof of election tampering, mind you....founded skepticism.  There were other state legislatures presented with evidence, none of whom refused to ratify the electoral votes, but also nowhere in those hearings did anyone come forward with anything along the lines of "We can explain that.  Here's where the people who think we violated state laws are wrong."  Just silence, and the media didn't cover any of it.  Some of the states went on to pass measures to tighten the electoral process.  That's their prerogative, but why do that if they didn't see something that caught their attention?  

#3 is where all the attention lies.  I have never had an opinion on the Dominion thing.  I simply don't know anything about it.  I know Sydney Powell never produced any evidence of her claims, while some independent audits claimed they did.  But I wasn't privy to their process and I wouldn't have understood it anyway.  It doesn't help when parties wanted to audit Dominion machines and the courts repeatedly blocked access.  The only two machines I know of that were gotten a hold of, eventually, turned up some pretty bad results.  Again, the media is silent on this, and a natural skeptic like me has nowhere to turn--I don't trust that judges blocked access to the machines (why?) or the media when they ignore something, and I don't trust smaller, independent sources who relay the above information (I don't know you....why should I believe you and that you're not just trying to get my conservative hackles up?).  Some data scientists began doing things like applying Benford's curve to election results and claiming things were off, which is not proof of fraud as far as I know, it just means deeper investigation is warranted.  But that didn't happen.  YouTube and Facebook just told everybody to shut the hell up or we'll boot you, which....look, anytime dissenting opinions, questioning, and free speech start getting squashed, I start getting really suspicious.  D'Souza's Mules film was interesting, but unlike many conservatives' claims, it proved nothing.  It did, however, point yet again to a reasonable warrant for more investigation.  But that didn't happen either. 

All that to say, people who claim there was outright fraud, imo, have a ways to go to back up those claims.  But there is warranted skepticism that was never addressed, and as such, other people who sneer at the first group and call them conspiracy theorists and other pejoratives can STFU.  Things that didn't make sense were never offered to be explained or investigated.  "Just shut up and look the other way" is admittedly suspicious as hell.  Some have told me it's because "they" don't need to waste time and money on ridiculous conspiracy theories.  1) that's begging the question--assuming the conclusion in consideration, and 2) "they" spent 3 years and hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars in Trump's presidency trying to pin Russian collusion on his administration in the 2016 election, and turned up jack squat.  Well, no, actually the FBI did ultimately trace it back to Hillary Clinton's emails, suggesting that as a viable propaganda strategy.  Don't tell me you can't investigate some genuinely eyebrow-raising stuff and put my mind at ease.  When half the country thinks there was fraud, it's not a waste of time to reassure them they're wrong, imo. 

So yeah, I don't know that fraud happened.  I don't know that it didn't either.  And I'm skeptical.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 11, 2023, 01:15:47 PM
I know fraud happened.  There's just no way that an election that large happened w/o any funny stuff going on.

The question is..... was there enough to affect the outcome

and yes, there are enough folks concerned about the possibility of fraud that steps should be taken to ensure people feel good about the process
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 11, 2023, 01:40:46 PM
first time in 180 years that an incumbent got more votes then the first election and still lost

does that mean fraud? Nope but it does make one wonder
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 11, 2023, 01:57:53 PM
electoral votes are different
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 11, 2023, 02:02:19 PM
There is fraud in every election, and always has been.  Was it greater in the past one than usual?  I have not seen very compelling evidence it was.

Joe B. got a ton of votes in California, over 3 million more than Obama got.  Now, maybe someone had a finger on the scales in CA, but considering that state was safe as safe can be for the presidential vote, I can't imagine anyone would have bothered statewide.

Ballot harvesting happens a lot because it can impact local outcomes, mayoral races etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 11, 2023, 02:07:50 PM
Maybe a discussion for "other news" thread fellas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 11, 2023, 02:29:12 PM
maybe but, something has to keep this thread going

1336 pages down the drain
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 11, 2023, 02:30:52 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 11, 2023, 02:02:19 PM
There is fraud in every election, and always has been.  Was it greater in the past one than usual?  I have not seen very compelling evidence it was.

Joe B. got a ton of votes in California, over 3 million more than Obama got.  Now, maybe someone had a finger on the scales in CA, but considering that state was safe as safe can be for the presidential vote, I can't imagine anyone would have bothered statewide.

Ballot harvesting happens a lot because it can impact local outcomes, mayoral races etc.
and steps should be taken to elliminate this as much as possible 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on March 11, 2023, 02:44:32 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 11, 2023, 02:02:19 PM
There is fraud in every election, and always has been.  Was it greater in the past one than usual?  I have not seen very compelling evidence it was.

My point was even if there is compelling evidence, you still wouldn't have seen it because it's never been investigated.  And it makes me shake my head when people say "I haven't seen any evidence."  Of course you haven't.  The point is nobody has looked for it.  

It will also vary person to person what "evidence" is.  There are conservative pundits who look at things through a strict legal lens and say since they haven't seen anything that would hold up in court, they're not going to talk about it.  Then there are people like me who believe in things like statistical theory, especially targeted statistical analysis.  I agree it's not "proof" and as far as I know, wouldn't hold up in court, but 1) I believe it to be warrant for further investigation, 2) I believe what numbers say, if they're accurately generated.  If we can say that Hypothesis A is true with 95% confidence, or more saliently, that Benford's Law has been violated conveniently in the areas in question, and not in other counties, I'm going to suspect something strongly and not feel bad about it.  Particularly when nobody cares to produce evidence to the contrary.  You say you haven't seen evidence.  I can just as easily say I haven't seen evidence the election was fair.  That's the exact point...there's never been this much dissent and it would benefit us all for a number of things to be sufficiently investigated.  

With that, I'll take the Badger's advice and take it elsewhere.  I got an AI ethics project to get moving on anyway.  If I sit around here talking to youse guys I'll never graduate.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on March 13, 2023, 01:36:42 AM
Some are going off the cliff here. The former president's own lawyer admitted he didn't have the evidence to prove election fraud changed the outcome of the election. Rudy Giuliani admitted 'we just don't have the evidence' of voter fraud, according to testimony (yahoo.com) (https://news.yahoo.com/rudy-giuliani-admitted-just-dont-182356435.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall)

And, just this week: Former Trump lawyer censured for falsehoods about election | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/former-trump-lawyer-censured-falsehoods-election)

At times like this, we need to man-up. Or, ostrich down and put our head in the sand, where there is little to no oxygen.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 13, 2023, 06:46:54 AM
Back on topic, I actually think "we" collectively learned some things, and many perhaps think some things about COVID that are not warranted.  I keep reading these mRNA vaccines are being tested against other agents, which could end up being a good thing.  I think "we" mostly understand now that lockdowns might flatten the curve a bit but area under the curve remains the same.  I could see a one week or so lock down in the future, but probably not much longer than that (if the plague were much much more lethal folks would panic and lock themselves down).  We saw how the "news media" is not very adept or honest.  

Maybe some other things, dunno, I'm slightly surprised today how little impact COVID has on our lives, for which I am thankful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 13, 2023, 11:47:56 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 13, 2023, 06:46:54 AM
Back on topic, I actually think "we" collectively learned some things, and many perhaps think some things about COVID that are not warranted.  I keep reading these mRNA vaccines are being tested against other agents, which could end up being a good thing.  I think "we" mostly understand now that lockdowns might flatten the curve a bit but area under the curve remains the same.  I could see a one week or so lock down in the future, but probably not much longer than that (if the plague were much much more lethal folks would panic and lock themselves down).  We saw how the "news media" is not very adept or honest. 

Maybe some other things, dunno, I'm slightly surprised today how little impact COVID has on our lives, for which I am thankful.
Depends on who you talk to.

It had a huge impact in the classroom in many places.

It further polarized our country.

It very likely affected an outcome in a Presidential election.

It changed the way/where we work, likely permanently.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 13, 2023, 11:49:56 AM
"Had" versus "has".  My life today is unperturbed by COVID anything.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 13, 2023, 12:01:05 PM
mine too, but I'm an old man.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 13, 2023, 12:14:53 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 13, 2023, 11:49:56 AM
"Had" versus "has".  My life today is unperturbed by COVID anything. 
There are many more people than you.

Talk to a guy who lost his restaurant, for example. There are a ton of those guys.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 13, 2023, 12:20:54 PM
yup, if Cincy lived somewhere with fewer options for dining, it may have perturbed his life
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 13, 2023, 12:22:52 PM
It perturbed all our lives back when, but today?  How does it impact you today?

I can't think of anything.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 13, 2023, 12:36:25 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 11, 2023, 11:59:12 AM
one of my friends got the COVID 7 weeks ago

still not back to normal

This is one of the things I've learned about various viral illnesses that I didn't ever know or think about before.  Not just long COVID, but how the common flu can affect some people for weeks/months/years after the original infection is gone.  I really had no idea.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 13, 2023, 12:36:59 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 13, 2023, 12:22:52 PM
It perturbed all our lives back when, but today?  How does it impact you today?

I can't think of anything.
you are not a young student and dont have a job nor place of business so you are one of those lucky folks who are at a point in life to be least affected
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 13, 2023, 12:37:39 PM
Here in Florida, it has little impact on "me". I worked from home even before Covid hit and the state was not on lockdown long enough to impact many businesses, if any.

Back up in Illinois is different. 

I'm still a chamber member and a lot of my fellow members, who I consider friends, are no longer members because their businesses are no longer open. They were deemed non-essential. Imagine how that would feel.

I have a niece and a nephew who are fish out of water and failing in school.

I can't go to my favorite restaurant because it's closed permanently.

I could go on, but what's the point?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 13, 2023, 12:40:32 PM
I did fail to mention that my company lost 3 employees, because they refused to come back to the office at least 3 days per week. That hurt because one of the was a really good designer and another a really good drafter. Still have not been able to replace them.

No sleep lost on the weak link. Good riddance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: TyphonInc on March 13, 2023, 12:41:37 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 13, 2023, 12:22:52 PM
It perturbed all our lives back when, but today?  How does it impact you today?

I can't think of anything.

Our School systems haven't recovered from kids taking a year and a half off.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 13, 2023, 12:42:50 PM
Quote from: TyphonInc on March 13, 2023, 12:41:37 PM
Our School systems haven't recovered from kids taking a year and a half off.
Not to mention the social skills destroyed in the process.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 13, 2023, 12:43:25 PM
No doubt there are lingering impacts, which clearly is not my point.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on March 13, 2023, 12:50:35 PM
IMO all 24 hour news stations should be treated as nothing more than entertainment.  In fact, there should be a disclaimer every so often stating that it's for entertainment purposes and that their presentation of the news may not be completely factual and reflects their organizations own bias and other leanings.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 13, 2023, 12:51:21 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 13, 2023, 12:43:25 PM
No doubt there are lingering impacts, which clearly is not my point. 
your point was that you personally feels no affects currently from covid

our point is that many others do still feel affects
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 13, 2023, 12:52:25 PM
Does anyone here have any daily impact from COVID currently?  I'm not talking about something that happened a year ago.  But something in your life NOW that is impacted by COVID?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 13, 2023, 12:53:23 PM
Quote from: Gigem on March 13, 2023, 12:50:35 PM
IMO all 24 hour news stations should be treated as nothing more than entertainment.  In fact, there should be a disclaimer every so often stating that it's for entertainment purposes and that their presentation of the news may not be completely factual and reflects their organizations own bias and other leanings. 
same could be said about all media including the big 3 tv networks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 13, 2023, 12:55:09 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 13, 2023, 12:52:25 PM
Does anyone here have any daily impact from COVID currently?  I'm not talking about something that happened a year ago.  But something in your life NOW that is impacted by COVID? 
several favorite restaurants have closed

lost several close friends

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 13, 2023, 01:24:51 PM
those all happened within the past week or so?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 13, 2023, 01:26:14 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 13, 2023, 01:24:51 PM
those all happened within the past week or so?
Doesn't have to happen in the past week to still have an impact.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 13, 2023, 04:04:19 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 13, 2023, 12:52:25 PM
Does anyone here have any daily impact from COVID currently?  I'm not talking about something that happened a year ago.  But something in your life NOW that is impacted by COVID? 
Yep.

The entire world was FLOODED with fiscal stimulus. That money is floating around the economy right now chasing an amount of goods that hasn't gone up--hence EVERYTHING is expensive a f. 

Today, I'm not working. The company decided to shut down in the US for the week [unpaid] to save money. Why is everything so screwy? Because COVID caused massive supply chain issues that created inventory overhangs that are still being drawn down. More specifically? One of the big markets we serve is video surveillance, which is HUGE in China. But their 2 1/2 years of Zero-COVID policies meant that they weren't often able to install hardware in the field, which means that their need for our products has been in a 2 1/2 year lull. We're hopeful that the end of Zero-COVID will lead to a rebound, but the speed at which that means anything meaningful for business is unknown. 

Oh, and all that fiscal stimulus, and the inflation that it caused? Why do you think we need high interest rates? What has it done to access to capital? How are businesses going to afford the loans that they need to either maintain operations or grow their way out of this, when access to money is so expensive? 

The world economy, and entire industries, were disrupted by COVID and the attendant government policies that came with it. Those effects are still here. 

Most people here are living their lives without giving COVID much thought. But that doesn't mean that a lot of the absolute messes we have right now aren't effects of COVID. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 13, 2023, 04:13:41 PM
Ed Zachery
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 13, 2023, 04:16:53 PM
I was thinking about flying last year and having to wear a mask on the flights.  And folks checked my vax status here and there.  We had to wear a mask at some symphonies and in a few stores.  Recently, in Oman, it was mandated nationwide.  But other than that, we did a 3 week tour of seven countries with zero anythings.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on March 13, 2023, 05:50:43 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 13, 2023, 12:52:25 PM
Does anyone here have any daily impact from COVID currently?  I'm not talking about something that happened a year ago.  But something in your life NOW that is impacted by COVID? 
Death of a close friend though 2 yrs back is a daily thing in my mind
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 14, 2023, 08:09:41 AM
I was just thinking back to our Carribean cruise from last December and out Cabo trip in January.

As for the Carribean, all those islands look the same after a while, but some of them (half?) required masking.

Cabo required masking in certain places, but only Costco and Walmart (etc.) enforced it. Ma and Pa shops didn't give a rip.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 14, 2023, 08:13:40 AM
I'm just glad it's in the rearview mirror

and fading
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2023, 09:52:45 AM
Still trending down here. Are there places with upticks anymore?

(https://i.imgur.com/WNzeg0C.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/w1mYte7.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 18, 2023, 09:53:49 AM
France COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer (worldometers.info) (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/)

Looks like the cycles in France have basically stopped.  This is because they all wear masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 18, 2023, 10:07:57 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 18, 2023, 09:53:49 AM
 This is because they all wear masks.
especially when peacefully protesting garbage piling up in the streets
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2023, 09:47:55 AM
Slight uptick now. Spring Break maybe. Still not much to be concerned about.

(https://i.imgur.com/NQYZhm5.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/nkc4YNa.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 05, 2023, 10:07:33 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2023, 09:47:55 AM
Slight uptick now. Spring Break maybe. Still not much to be concerned about.

unless you're old
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2023, 11:04:46 AM
An unusual number of folks on the streets in Athens, GR were wearing masks.  We walked a lot, and I noticed quite a few outside with masks on, not Asians.  Nowhere else did we see more than a smidgen (including aboard the ship).

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2023, 11:10:03 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 05, 2023, 10:07:33 AM
unless you're old
Everyone here is old. I don't see much concern. I do know of one man who avoids going out if he can. He's 92 and loaded with co-morbidities.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 06, 2023, 04:42:36 PM
The COVID-19 federal Public Health Emergency, declared under Section 319 of the Public Health Service Act by the U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services, expires end-of-day May 11, 2023. 

As of May 11, 2023, we will not cover over-the-counter COVID home tests. However, we will cover the COVID-related services below at 100% until July 31, 2023:
• Vaccines
• In-office and telehealth visits
• In-office visits for testing
• Lab testing

As of August 1, 2023:
• We will cover COVID vaccines at 100% as part of a routine vaccine schedule.
• In-office and telehealth visits for COVID will follow benefit plan cost shares.
• COVID lab testing will also follow benefit plan cost shares.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on April 07, 2023, 02:14:53 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2023, 11:10:03 AM
Everyone here is old. I don't see much concern. I do know of one man who avoids going out if he can. He's 92 and loaded with co-morbidities.
You are describing my dad, less two years (dad is 90). He managed to avoid COVID but not leukemia. He is positive, but his health is precarious. COVID, which has weakened in severity, is devasting to people like dad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 07, 2023, 08:30:00 AM
my buddy's father got the COVID a few weeks back

97 years old but healthy and stout

he was in the hospital for a few weeks, now in an insisted care facility

getting his strength back so he can go home in a week or so
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2023, 03:13:29 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 07, 2023, 08:30:00 AM
my buddy's father got the COVID a few weeks back

97 years old but healthy and stout

he was in the hospital for a few weeks, now in an insisted care facility

getting his strength back so he can go home in a week or so
How's he doing?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2023, 03:14:03 PM
I expected these findings. 

Covid‐19 vaccination BNT162b2 temporarily impairs semen concentration and total motile count among semen donors - Gat - 2022 - Andrology - Wiley Online Library (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/andr.13209)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 14, 2023, 03:23:11 PM
I saw a woman yesterday with a mask on, alone in her car, in a parking lot.  I guess I kinda stared at her, and she just stared back at me.

I still see maybe 3-5% or so wearing masks out and about, sometimes in the park well clear of anyone else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2023, 03:29:05 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 14, 2023, 03:23:11 PM
I saw a woman yesterday with a mask on, alone in her car, in a parking lot.  I guess I kinda stared at her, and she just stared back at me.

I still see maybe 3-5% or so wearing masks out and about, sometimes in the park well clear of anyone else.
Saw a couple of women in a diner today.

Pink and green hair, piercings, tats, and... masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2023, 03:36:50 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2023, 03:29:05 PM
Saw a couple of women in a diner today.

Pink and green hair, piercings, tats, and... masks.
I"m assuming they weren't a badass gang of grannies? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on April 15, 2023, 01:32:43 AM
The virus is spreading rapidly, but as in the 1918 flu, in its later stages it is much less dangerous. Two-weeks ago one of my former secretaries who is now in charge of HR in a large nursing home 25-miles away said 8 employees were out with COVID-19. There are less hospitalizations and death, but significant spread. My brother-in-law had it after returning from the Women's NCAA Final Four, but he also had it in January so it surprised me he could get it so quickly again. It was no problem despite he is 69 or so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2023, 07:33:08 AM
Where is it spreading rapidly?  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 15, 2023, 09:23:08 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 14, 2023, 03:36:50 PM
I"m assuming they weren't a badass gang of grannies?
Nah. Looked more like HS dropouts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 15, 2023, 09:29:05 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/lFL4tnt.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/BPPjZhU.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2023, 09:52:08 AM
It's not "in the news" around here, at all.  There are no precautions anywhere I have seen, other than some individuals wearing masks.  I've never tested positive.  If I had it, it was mild indeed.

"They" aren't pushing booster shots any more that I've noticed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 15, 2023, 10:00:22 AM
I see ads for the booster all the time on local TV here. They are wasting money on this market.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 15, 2023, 10:20:16 AM
My wife is happy that as of April 3, she no longer is required to wear a mask at work. She works in a medical office and up until then, the CA Dept of Public Health mandated masks be worn in "high risk" places like medical offices. She's had to deal with this for 3 years.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2023, 10:39:27 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 15, 2023, 10:00:22 AM
I see ads for the booster all the time on local TV here. They are wasting money on this market.
To be fair, I watch almost no TV beyond some sports.  My wife may have the local news on when I'm passing by.

We watch some Law and Order reruns at times.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 15, 2023, 10:57:20 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 15, 2023, 10:20:16 AM
My wife is happy that as of April 3, she no longer is required to wear a mask at work. She works in a medical office and up until then, the CA Dept of Public Health mandated masks be worn in "high risk" places like medical offices. She's had to deal with this for 3 years. 
Just NOW??

Wow. Feel bad for her and anyone else in that position.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 15, 2023, 11:35:43 AM
doesn't seem to be spreading in Florida

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 15, 2023, 11:56:56 AM
Not much, but don't forget the population is starting to shrink again (thank God).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2023, 12:45:14 PM
Was just at a festival in the park, packed, hard to move, for miles.  Almost no masks.  Yesterday was rainy so I'm sure folks moved their visit to today.

(https://i.imgur.com/E7zdmsj.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2023, 01:05:45 PM


(https://i.imgur.com/zZmtIxq.jpg)(https://i.imgur.com/XDXvEuT.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2023, 01:06:53 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/fsRnVKw.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 15, 2023, 02:43:51 PM
enjoy the COVID spread
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2023, 10:10:38 AM
FDA: Single dose of bivalent COVID vaccine enough for most people | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/3956455-fda-single-dose-of-bivalent-covid-vaccine-enough-for-most-people/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2023, 10:17:34 AM
:57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 18, 2023, 10:29:01 AM
According to the FDA, individuals who haven’t gotten a bivalent shot yet or haven’t gotten vaccinated at all are still eligible for a dose, but those who have received a single dose already are “not currently eligible for another dose.”

_______________________________________

so, I shouldn't get a booster?
I got the 2 shots way back when
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2023, 10:41:30 AM
If you got the first two shots, you are eligible for thhe bivalent booster.  I am not.  I gather "they" are going to update the bivalent akin to how they update flu shots annually, but we "may be done".
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2023, 10:47:49 AM
Why can't we be like Europe? ;)

Switzerland No Longer Recommends COVID-19 Vaccination: Here's Why (medicaldaily.com) (https://www.medicaldaily.com/switzerland-no-longer-recommends-covid-19-vaccination-heres-why-469321)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 18, 2023, 12:42:06 PM
Things will have to change for the worse around here before I sign up for my next eligible shot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2023, 01:17:11 PM
FDA authorizes 2nd dose of updated Covid booster for older adults (nbcnews.com) (https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/fda-authorizes-2nd-dose-updated-covid-booster-older-adults-rcna79568)

I doubt I will get one, maybe in the fall, maybe.

It seems "under control" to me, maybe aside from assisted living places etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 18, 2023, 01:43:09 PM
yup, don't go to one of those assisted living places, unless it's for a very brief visit

folks seem to die at an advanced rate there
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2023, 01:49:05 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 18, 2023, 01:43:09 PM
yup, don't go to one of those assisted living places, unless it's for a very brief visit

folks seem to die at an advanced rate there
This is not new, for advanced/memory care facilities.

Covid made it happen faster for a while, but it still happens fast in those places.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2023, 02:16:21 PM
GOP senator releases ‘bombshell’ COVID-19 origins report | Fox Business (https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/gop-sentor-releases-bombshell-covid-origins-report)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 18, 2023, 02:49:33 PM
love the term "bombshell"

very dramatic
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2023, 03:36:44 PM
Not a bombshell to me.

I said it 3 years ago. 

And it didn't cost millions upon millions for me to say it.

Bunch of fuckballs in charge should just call me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2023, 03:38:49 PM
I'm not sure this report had much more than opinions in it.  I didn't read it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on April 18, 2023, 04:11:02 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on April 18, 2023, 10:29:01 AM
so, I shouldn't get a booster?
I got the 2 shots way back when
That's Ed zachery what i received,then i saw the congressional hearings grilling Big Pharma and they were backpedaling on whether they knew or not about  effectiveness figured Mr Beam's Elixir could cover for the rest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 20, 2023, 02:09:01 PM
DOJ charges doctors, others with Covid health care fraud (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/20/doj-charges-doctors-others-with-covid-health-care-fraud.html)



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 20, 2023, 02:31:50 PM
take their Mercedes
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 20, 2023, 02:51:01 PM
Tip of the iceberg.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 20, 2023, 07:47:15 PM
The first death with the new strain of Covid-19 has been recorded.

An elderly man reportedly died with the Arcturus variant in Thailand, according to the country’s director-general of the medical sciences department, Dr Supakit Sirilak.

He confirmed 27 new cases of XBB.1.16 – which has been dubbed ‘Arcturus’ – were detected in the Southeast Asian nation as of April 17, and one of those was fatal, reports Thai PBS.

Dr Sirilak said: ‘The deceased was an elderly foreigner with underlying health conditions.

‘His death, therefore, may not directly reflect the severity of this subvariant but rather its impact on other risk factors.’

Thai health authorities have raised the alarm and urged the public to take precaution, but said there is ‘no need to panic’.

Cases of the Arcturus variant first started spreading rapidly in India last week and has caused concern over the speed at which it’s being transmitted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2023, 07:32:24 AM
Speed of transmission seems inverse to lethality of strain (we all hope).
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on April 21, 2023, 10:03:24 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 21, 2023, 07:32:24 AM
Speed of transmission seems inverse to lethality of strain (we all hope).
that helped us get over the pandemic

fast spreading much weaker strain took over
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on April 26, 2023, 11:53:05 AM
Fauci acknowledges ‘problems’ after scathing report on pandemic response | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/3972661-fauci-acknowledges-problems-after-scathing-report-on-pandemic-response/)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 26, 2023, 05:19:39 PM
Interesting.

Judicial Watch: Records Show Funding for EcoHealth/Wuhan Institute Research to Create Coronavirus ‘Mutants’ | Judicial Watch (https://www.judicialwatch.org/coronavirus-mutants/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 30, 2023, 09:03:06 AM
HONG KONG (AP) — Chinese authorities were preparing Sunday to release a man who disappeared three years ago after publicizing videos of overcrowded hospitals and bodies during the COVID-19 outbreak, a relative and another person familiar with his case said.

Fang Bin and other members of the public who were dubbed citizen journalists posted details of the pandemic in early 2020 on the internet and social media, embarrassing Chinese officials who faced criticism for failing to control the outbreak. The last video Fang, a seller of traditional Chinese clothing, posted on Twitter was of a piece of paper reading, “All citizens resist, hand power back to the people.”

Fang’s case is part of Beijing’s crackdown on criticism of China’s early handling of the pandemic, as the ruling Communist Party seeks to control the narrative of the country.

He was scheduled to be released Sunday, according to two people who did not want to be identified for fear of government retribution. One of them said Fang was sentenced to three years in prison for “picking quarrels and provoking trouble,” a vague charge traditionally used against political dissidents.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 30, 2023, 09:36:29 AM
It would really suck to live there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on April 30, 2023, 09:44:42 AM
worse than Chicago or San Francisco
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 30, 2023, 12:14:27 PM
Still holding steady.

(https://i.imgur.com/61URlge.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/xSdFXBo.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 05, 2023, 10:09:46 AM
https://www.wsj.com/articles/who-declares-covid-19-pandemic-emergency-over-23977772?st=3n4ka1muljztvod&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 05, 2023, 11:55:58 AM
thank God
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 14, 2023, 12:42:20 PM
Snowbirds are leaving. Probably helps.

(https://i.imgur.com/D3ZYfhe.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/6CxPvld.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on May 15, 2023, 11:32:53 PM
I am in the 65+,  and that is a very high death rate for my group. I have had it 3x, and was largely unaffected by it. Once before vaccination; twice with vaccination.

I was thinking this was pretty much over for deaths but when I view your weekly report, with deaths waning; they are not stopping.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 16, 2023, 12:31:05 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on May 15, 2023, 11:32:53 PM
I am in the 65+,  and that is a very high death rate for my group. I have had it 3x, and was largely unaffected by it. Once before vaccination; twice with vaccination.

I was thinking this was pretty much over for deaths but when I view your weekly report, with deaths waning; they are not stopping.
In my opinion a lot of the current deaths are not dying from covid but instead dying while having covid
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 16, 2023, 07:02:22 AM
COVID can be akin to pneumonia/flu for the elderly.  It's enough to tip them over the edge if they are frail.  They'd survive longer if they didn't get it.

This applies to any respiratory illness more than other types, they prey on the elderly.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 16, 2023, 07:54:17 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on May 15, 2023, 11:32:53 PM
I am in the 65+,  and that is a very high death rate for my group. I have had it 3x, and was largely unaffected by it. Once before vaccination; twice with vaccination.

I was thinking this was pretty much over for deaths but when I view your weekly report, with deaths waning; they are not stopping.
I'm guessing you are not obese, don't have COPD, are not diabetic, etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 16, 2023, 08:35:46 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 16, 2023, 07:02:22 AM
COVID can be akin to pneumonia/flu for the elderly.  It's enough to tip them over the edge if they are frail.  They'd survive longer if they didn't get it.

This applies to any respiratory illness more than other types, they prey on the elderly.


yes, makes me wonder how many are dying of pneumonia/flu?
maybe similar numbers, maybe more
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 16, 2023, 08:37:09 AM
The excess deaths when COVID was raging were notable relative to the norm.  The normal death rates in the US are pretty predictable in the past.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 16, 2023, 08:39:13 AM
I'm not suggesting elderly aren't dying of COVID
just that the numbers are low enough now that there maybe fewer dying from COVID than pneumonia/flu
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on May 16, 2023, 08:41:27 AM
Now, probably, or close, it's not flu season now.  My guess is a lot of COVID deaths were caused by COVID first and than pneumonia setting in.  And a lot of the compromised elderly have been unfortunately killed off before their time, as it were.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 16, 2023, 09:00:10 AM
I remember reading a report out of the EU that said the average person who died with Covid had 3.8 co-morbidities. That's a big number.

Covid just pushed them out a little earlier, I guess, as stated above.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 16, 2023, 09:43:12 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 16, 2023, 12:31:05 AM
In my opinion a lot of the current deaths are not dying from covid but instead dying while having covid
That's been your opinion for going on three years now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 16, 2023, 09:50:56 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on February 14, 2022, 10:55:57 AM
might also be some cases of dying with covid not dying because of covid
Or, at least well over a year. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 16, 2023, 10:29:23 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 16, 2023, 09:43:12 AM
That's been your opinion for going on three years now.
yep you can consider me a path finder

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 16, 2023, 10:34:34 AM
and stubborn
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 16, 2023, 10:35:57 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 16, 2023, 10:34:34 AM
and stubborn
well yeah Im a Texan
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 16, 2023, 10:50:30 AM
seems to be a common trait
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 16, 2023, 11:25:45 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 16, 2023, 10:50:30 AM
seems to be a common trait
one of our golden rules
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 16, 2023, 12:22:52 PM
like "all hat, no cattle" ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 16, 2023, 12:26:11 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/eyG6ToH.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 16, 2023, 02:14:50 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 16, 2023, 12:22:52 PM
like "all hat, no cattle" ;)
no we leave that to you yankees
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on May 16, 2023, 02:21:18 PM
we don't wear 10-gallon hats or hub caps as belt buckles, but we have the best cattle
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on May 16, 2023, 02:28:19 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on May 16, 2023, 02:21:18 PM
we don't wear 10-gallon hats or hub caps as belt buckles, but we have the best cattle
yep you know how to raise cows
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on May 16, 2023, 03:04:01 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 16, 2023, 02:28:19 PM
yep you know how to raise cows
Fearless knows how to raise Ralphie????
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 16, 2023, 03:59:47 PM
The Moo-Moo Song (Live) (feat. Jonathon Brandmeier) - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBEkeFaiEfM)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 27, 2023, 07:17:51 AM
Holding steady. It will be interesting to see how things go over the summer months. Seems like there is a spike in deaths every six months or so, and here we are, about there.

(https://i.imgur.com/VrEjp4F.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/IY5XAxU.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2023, 04:37:04 PM
Pretty darn bad on this one.

We tried to improve COVID vaccine labeling — the FDA said ‘no thanks’ | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/4037145-we-tried-to-improve-covid-vaccine-labeling-the-fda-said-no-thanks/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 09, 2023, 04:55:22 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 09, 2023, 04:37:04 PM
Pretty darn bad on this one.

We tried to improve COVID vaccine labeling — the FDA said ‘no thanks’ | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/4037145-we-tried-to-improve-covid-vaccine-labeling-the-fda-said-no-thanks/)
Symptomatic of the whole political theatre that was/is Covid- and just about everything else these days. 

The level of ludicrous and hypocrisy is staggering. 
“Follow the Science “.  😂😂😂. 

Translation. “ we will tell you what you can think and say - regardless of the data- and we will cancel your ass if you question any of it.”

Applies to:
Southern Border
CRT
School Curriculum
FBI
DOJ
Crime
Criminal Penalties
Presidential Candidates
Foreign Policy
Government Spending

The list goes on 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 10, 2023, 09:50:01 AM
White House mandating face masks, social distancing for unvaccinated 'College Athlete Day' guests | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-mandating-face-masks-social-distancing-unvaccinated-college-athlete-day-guests)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 10, 2023, 11:43:06 AM
Interesting uptick in cases here.

(https://i.imgur.com/wEP5q5M.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/KG2qzNk.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 10, 2023, 12:04:10 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 10, 2023, 09:50:01 AM
White House mandating face masks, social distancing for unvaccinated 'College Athlete Day' guests | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-mandating-face-masks-social-distancing-unvaccinated-college-athlete-day-guests)
This is "kinda" funny to me.  We have squat about COVID here.  I did see a booth at our local farmer's market doing vaxxing.  They didn't have a line.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 10, 2023, 12:08:57 PM
They just can't let it go. It's an obsession now.

And then there's this. Pretty damning.

‘Undermines Trust’: Mark Zuckerberg Reflects On Facebook Censoring COVID-19 ‘Misinformation’ | The Daily Caller (https://dailycaller.com/2023/06/09/undermines-trust-mark-zuckerberg-biden-administration-spread-misinformation-covid-pandemic/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 10, 2023, 01:49:11 PM
Interesting.

Scientists are trying to find a mystery person in Ohio who has a new kind of COVID and is shedding it into the sewage (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/scientists-are-trying-to-find-a-mystery-person-in-ohio-who-has-a-new-kind-of-covid-and-is-shedding-it-into-the-sewage/ar-AA1cj1vh?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=9034f3768f914ee69047fc3ac3e35c35&ei=11)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on June 11, 2023, 01:40:13 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 10, 2023, 01:49:11 PM
Interesting.

Scientists are trying to find a mystery person in Ohio who has a new kind of COVID and is shedding it into the sewage (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/scientists-are-trying-to-find-a-mystery-person-in-ohio-who-has-a-new-kind-of-covid-and-is-shedding-it-into-the-sewage/ar-AA1cj1vh?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=9034f3768f914ee69047fc3ac3e35c35&ei=11)
The most recent variants seem to be less severe. CDC: Omicron Subvariant XBB.1.16, or Arcturus, Responsible for 18% of New COVID-19 Cases (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/cdc-omicron-subvariant-xbb116-or-arcturus-responsible-for-18-of-new-covid-19-cases/ar-AA1cm9ST) All that could change, but this course is becoming more like the 1918 flu where the peaks declined over time. COVID can't spread if it is too deadly, so survival of the fittest COVIDS are the less severe varieties.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 11, 2023, 09:32:58 AM
Lockdowns did so much damage. And then there's this.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-lockdowns-business-employers-migration-states-bureau-of-labor-statistics-85b7d592?st=klul93de58pwfs1&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2023, 05:22:05 PM
Cochrane Review apologizes after inaccurate ‘masks don’t work’ review | The Star (https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2023/03/10/how-the-cochrane-review-went-wrong-report-questioning-covid-masks-blows-up-prompts-apology.html)

:sign0144:

Masks Work. Distorting Science to Dispute the Evidence Doesn't - Scientific American (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/masks-work-distorting-science-to-dispute-the-evidence-doesnt/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on June 11, 2023, 06:38:40 PM
London Times today (paywall) had a deep piece today on the Wuhan lab leak. Very damning.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 06:42:25 AM
The lab leak idea is clearly possible, no matter what "authorities" have said in the past.  I don't see a way to shift that to "likely", without evidence it's just speculation.  And the LL Theory has variations internally as well.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 12, 2023, 10:16:42 AM
We know it didn't come from a wet market.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 10:19:29 AM
we do??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 12, 2023, 10:35:02 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 10:19:29 AM
we do??
Yes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 12, 2023, 10:35:23 AM
Quote from: MarqHusker on June 11, 2023, 06:38:40 PM
London Times today (paywall) had a deep piece today on the Wuhan lab leak. Very damning. 
Can you post it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 12, 2023, 11:30:09 AM
https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/wuhan-scientists-chinese-military-created-covid-19-reveals-shocking-report-1716640
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 11:35:28 AM
According to an investigation by The Sunday Times (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/inside-wuhan-lab-covid-pandemic-china-america-qhjwwwvm0), scientists in Wuhan were working in collaboration with Chinese military researchers to combine the world's most deadly viruses.

It adds that the experiment may have caused a leak from the Wuhan Institute (https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/chinese-scientist-center-virus-controversy-denies-lab-leak-theory-1691322) of Virology, which led to the novel coronavirus outbreak.

That hardly is convincing, to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 12, 2023, 11:36:49 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 11:35:28 AM
According to an investigation by The Sunday Times (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/inside-wuhan-lab-covid-pandemic-china-america-qhjwwwvm0), scientists in Wuhan were working in collaboration with Chinese military researchers to combine the world's most deadly viruses.

It adds that the experiment may have caused a leak from the Wuhan Institute (https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/chinese-scientist-center-virus-controversy-denies-lab-leak-theory-1691322) of Virology, which led to the novel coronavirus outbreak.

That hardly is convincing, to me.
We know it did not come from a wet market.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 11:48:25 AM
I don't know that for certain.  This lab buys bats from somebody, and that somebody may have been infected, and then gone to the market.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 11:49:50 AM
an investigation by The Sunday Times

Experts, I assume
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 12, 2023, 12:18:30 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 11:48:25 AM
I don't know that for certain.  This lab buys bats from somebody, and that somebody may have been infected, and then gone to the market.
so you are suggesting that even though the lab was working on a virus coming from bats that Covid19 may not have come from the lab?

looks and smells like a duck to me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 12:21:58 PM
I've suggested that the lab gets bats from somewhere else, using "bat catchers" I surmise.  Those bat catchers could have been infected by catching said bats andt hen wondered over to the market later.  It's a possible scenario.  And would explain why the CCP has been so tight about information on this.

It would be the fault of the Wuhan lab, but not due to a release.  The other unresolved issue remains whether this virus is entirely zoonotic or not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 12, 2023, 12:23:17 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 11:48:25 AM
I don't know that for certain.  This lab buys bats from somebody, and that somebody may have been infected, and then gone to the market.
I believe this:

The CCP tells us it started in a market really means that it started in a lab.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 12, 2023, 12:26:10 PM
I have a business associate that is a product rep for a Chinese firm.
He assumes everything the Chinese tell him is a lie.
He assumes everything I tell him is the truth.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 12, 2023, 12:26:45 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 12:21:58 PM
I've suggested that the lab gets bats from somewhere else, using "bat catchers" I surmise.  Those bat catchers could have been infected by catching said bats andt hen wondered over to the market later.  It's a possible scenario.  And would explain why the CCP has been so tight about information on this.

It would be the fault of the Wuhan lab, but not due to a release.  The other unresolved issue remains whether this virus is entirely zoonotic or not.
and yet nobody has been able to find another infected bat
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 12:34:19 PM
I don't know that for a fact.  The bats apparently come from some distance away, and perhaps nobody has had an incentive to go back and search for more bats, or they don't want the information known.

But imagine the CCP knows what happened as I describe, they would want to cover it up, and returning to the caves to find more bats would not be in their interest either.

No one can find the animal that gave people covid-19 | MIT Technology Review (https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/03/26/1021263/bat-covid-coronavirus-cause-origin-wuhan/)

What the researchers know so far is that a coronavirus very similar to some found in horseshoe bats made the jump into humans, appeared in the Chinese city of Wuhan by December 2019, and from there ignited the biggest health calamity of the 21st century. (https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/03/17/905264/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing-18-months/)

We also know they haven’t found the critical detail: if it was in fact a virus with an origin in horseshoe bats, how did it make its way into humans from creatures living hundreds of miles away in remote caves?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 12, 2023, 12:42:36 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 12:34:19 PM
I don't know that for a fact.  The bats apparently come from some distance away, and perhaps nobody has had an incentive to go back and search for more bats, or they don't want the information known.

But imagine the CCP knows what happened as I describe, they would want to cover it up, and returning to the caves to find more bats would not be in their interest either.

No one can find the animal that gave people covid-19 | MIT Technology Review (https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/03/26/1021263/bat-covid-coronavirus-cause-origin-wuhan/)

What the researchers know so far is that a coronavirus very similar to some found in horseshoe bats made the jump into humans, appeared in the Chinese city of Wuhan by December 2019, and from there ignited the biggest health calamity of the 21st century. (https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/03/17/905264/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing-18-months/)

We also know they haven’t found the critical detail: if it was in fact a virus with an origin in horseshoe bats, how did it make its way into humans from creatures living hundreds of miles away in remote caves?


Because it didn't?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 12:47:24 PM
I laid out a possibility that strikes me as reasonably probable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 12, 2023, 01:24:55 PM
Me too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on June 12, 2023, 01:38:51 PM
I think a large part of this is the actions China took after the virus was being spread

they locked everthing down and didnt say boo

they maintained flight schedules to other countries thereby assuring its spread
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 12, 2023, 01:40:56 PM
A key question for me is whether it is entirely zoonotic or bioengineered.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on June 13, 2023, 10:20:24 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 12, 2023, 01:38:51 PM
I think a large part of this is the actions China took after the virus was being spread

they locked everthing down and didnt say boo

they maintained flight schedules to other countries thereby assuring its spread
Epidemiologists would probably say China initially tried to keep the new virus a secret from their own people, and the world, and did not lock down fast enough, which promoted its spread.
Instead, at the very start Chinese law enforcement investigated the doctor who tried to spread the word there was a new deadly virus. Yes they did allow flights to go out. Li Wenliang: Coronavirus death of Wuhan doctor sparks anger - BBC News (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51409801)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2023, 10:26:00 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on June 13, 2023, 10:20:24 AM
Epidemiologists would probably say China initially tried to keep the new virus a secret from their own people, and the world, and did not lock down fast enough, which promoted its spread.
Instead, at the very start Chinese law enforcement investigated the doctor who tried to spread the word there was a new deadly virus. Yes they did allow flights to go out. Li Wenliang: Coronavirus death of Wuhan doctor sparks anger - BBC News (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51409801)
I think that also makes a point in proving that the CCP knew what it had, and unleased it upon the world intentionally. The CCP doesn't care about its people, and it certainly doesn't care about anyone else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 13, 2023, 10:50:01 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2023, 10:26:00 AM
I think that also makes a point in proving that the CCP knew what it had, and unleased it upon the world intentionally. The CCP doesn't care about its people, and it certainly doesn't care about anyone else.
I still find it hard to believe that we simultaneously believe that the CCP is playing 4D chess, and that they intentionally released a virus that completely wrecked the world economy, which completely wrecked their own. 

I can't argue that they care, but if you're a huge exporter, what's the benefit in hurting your biggest customers?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2023, 10:54:23 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 13, 2023, 10:50:01 AM
I still find it hard to believe that we simultaneously believe that the CCP is playing 4D chess, and that they intentionally released a virus that completely wrecked the world economy, which completely wrecked their own.

I can't argue that they care, but if you're a huge exporter, what's the benefit in hurting your biggest customers?
If you look back, their economy was in tatters anyway. Ours was not, and then it was.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 13, 2023, 11:29:40 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2023, 10:54:23 AM
If you look back, their economy was in tatters anyway. Ours was not, and then it was.
Eh, not sure I believe that. And then their whole zero COVID policy screwed up their economy even worse (if as you say it were in tatters) and screwed up the plebes confidence in their ability to govern. 

And even if their economy was struggling, why cause a global supply chain crisis that resulted in most of the world economies asking "hey, so how can we be LESS reliant on China???"

All I'm saying is that if them sending it around the world was intentional, it was a colossal blunder of the highest degree. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2023, 11:42:23 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 13, 2023, 11:29:40 AM
Eh, not sure I believe that. And then their whole zero COVID policy screwed up their economy even worse (if as you say it were in tatters) and screwed up the plebes confidence in their ability to govern.

And even if their economy was struggling, why cause a global supply chain crisis that resulted in most of the world economies asking "hey, so how can we be LESS reliant on China???"

All I'm saying is that if them sending it around the world was intentional, it was a colossal blunder of the highest degree.
They accomplished their goal, and that's all I'll say here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2023, 12:18:58 PM
Hindsight.

PowerPoint Presentation (ispor.org) (https://www.ispor.org/docs/default-source/intl2023/ispor23wadeposterrwd26-pdf.pdf)

(https://i.imgur.com/JJg6H6Q.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 13, 2023, 02:20:10 PM
OK, but how about the patients that were treated by making them drink bleach and ultraviolet light, huh?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2023, 02:55:58 PM
Stupid is gonna stupid.

Gene pool reduction.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 13, 2023, 03:04:42 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2023, 12:18:58 PM
Hindsight.

PowerPoint Presentation (ispor.org) (https://www.ispor.org/docs/default-source/intl2023/ispor23wadeposterrwd26-pdf.pdf)

(https://i.imgur.com/JJg6H6Q.jpg)
The link goes to a very different page.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 13, 2023, 03:12:32 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 13, 2023, 03:04:42 PM
The link goes to a very different page. 
Nah. Just a different layout.


(https://i.imgur.com/uO1mHMm.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 14, 2023, 12:26:21 AM
we have learned nothing!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 14, 2023, 07:28:15 AM
I disagree. We've learned a lot about how we failed and what could be done better for the next one. We've also learned that China is not to be trusted. Ever. On anything. Ever.

(https://i.imgur.com/Y8Gbc0b.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 14, 2023, 07:54:52 AM
I don't think we learned not to trust China, I think "we" knew that back when.  I do think "we" learned some useful things.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 14, 2023, 08:19:41 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 14, 2023, 07:54:52 AM
I don't think we learned not to trust China, I think "we" knew that back when.  I do think "we" learned some useful things.


Some of us knew. But to this day, there are still idiots out there running cover for that evil regime.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on June 14, 2023, 08:55:12 AM
I've been warning about China since the day I first started working for a company that was moving production over there.  That was in 1999.

But I don't think the people "running cover" for them, are nearly as dangerous as the ones that believe that China is sort of bad, but it's still okay to run tons of our manufacturing through there.  That's a much larger group, and they're the ones that are largely in control of the decision making.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 14, 2023, 09:04:31 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 14, 2023, 08:19:41 AM
Some of us knew. But to this day, there are still idiots out there running cover for that evil regime.
Many- in elected positions of importance at a high level.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 14, 2023, 09:05:51 AM
I think it important to know if this was bioengineered, at all.  Maybe the release was accidental, OK that can happen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 15, 2023, 09:00:51 AM
Wuhan scientists were the first to contract COVID-19: report (nypost.com) (https://nypost.com/2023/06/13/wuhan-scientists-were-the-first-to-contract-covid-19-report/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 15, 2023, 09:22:38 AM
according to an investigation by journalists Michael Shellenberger and Matt Taibbi published on the Substack newsletter Public.

The three scientists were researching “gain-of-function” experiments with the virus — which increases its infectiousness and makes pathogens stronger in order to better understand their dangers — when they became sick in the fall of 2019, multiple US government officials reportedly told the journalists.

The new details were revealed about four months after FBI Director Christopher Wray said the bureau believes that the horrific COVID-19 virus responsible for millions of deaths likely originated from an accidental outbreak at a Chinese lab.

“The FBI has for quite some time now assessed that the origins of the pandemic are most likely a potential lab incident in Wuhan, China,” Wray said in an interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier.

_____________________________

Who are the government officials?
Most likely potential?  or do we really know??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 15, 2023, 09:25:59 AM
They are tap-dancing. Don't want to piss of the CCP.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 15, 2023, 09:26:41 AM
multiple US government officials reportedly told the journalists.

Either they did or they didn't.  Everything I read of this ilk has some qualifier attached, nothing first hand and direct.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 15, 2023, 09:26:49 AM
where's the middle finger emoji?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on June 15, 2023, 09:27:33 AM
government official = expert
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 15, 2023, 09:29:50 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 15, 2023, 09:00:51 AM
Wuhan scientists were the first to contract COVID-19: report (nypost.com) (https://nypost.com/2023/06/13/wuhan-scientists-were-the-first-to-contract-covid-19-report/)
Shocking I tell you.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 15, 2023, 09:46:45 AM
In 2019, two of the allegedly infected scientists, Hu and Yu, [color=var(--wp--custom--color--link)]co-authored a paper [/color] (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S156713481830902X?via%3Dihub#ab0005)about the genetic lineage of SARS-related coronavirus in bats across China that they had studied.

Any "news report" to me that contains those key words, like reportedly, allegedly, according to high ranking officials, etc., I put on the back burner with a strong MAYBE SO.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 22, 2023, 08:24:21 AM
Deadline missed.


PUBL002.PS (congress.gov) (https://www.congress.gov/118/plaws/publ2/PLAW-118publ2.pdf)


What's the holdup here? Release the documents already.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on June 28, 2023, 08:16:43 PM
https://twitter.com/danacarvey/status/1674131570767155251?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1674131570767155251%7Ctwgr%5E96b0902a5f2a02452a1d5f89a399e9eb99b72777%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.foxnews.com%2Fmedia%2Fsnl-legend-dana-carvey-hits-dr-fauci-stinging-impression-introducing-daily-covid-shot
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on June 29, 2023, 07:49:40 AM
Latest COVID origin report largely debunks the ‘lab-leak’ theory (msnbc.com) (https://www.msnbc.com/the-mehdi-hasan-show/the-mehdi-hasan-show/covid-origin-report-lab-leak-theory-manmade-debunked-rcna91500)

This is from MSNBC, so take it for whatever.

Basically, the headline says something was debunked, but the article basically says "We really don't know".
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 29, 2023, 07:59:05 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 29, 2023, 07:49:40 AM
Latest COVID origin report largely debunks the ‘lab-leak’ theory (msnbc.com) (https://www.msnbc.com/the-mehdi-hasan-show/the-mehdi-hasan-show/covid-origin-report-lab-leak-theory-manmade-debunked-rcna91500)

This is from MSNBC, so take it for whatever.

Basically, the headline says something was debunked, but the article basically says "We really don't know".
It's already in the shitter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on July 03, 2023, 02:42:24 AM
Daughter married June 24. Exposure to many people who attended the wedding. By Wednesday, and Thursday, June 28-29, I was having a croupe in my throat. I thought the croupe was from the smoke of the Canadian wildfires. But over the weekend it was worse. 

Last night my spouse reminded me we had exposure to lots of people o June 24, so I took a COVID test.

I tested Sunday at 11:30 p.m. It is not COVID-19.

Exposure to lots of people spreads many diseases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 04, 2023, 09:37:19 AM
Of course! 

We were on a plane Sunday for many hours. Took off from PGD at 8:30 EDT and made to MDW. MDW and ORD were closed for storms. Grand Rapids had no gates. South Bend had no gates. Rockford had no gates. Ended up in Appleton, WI. They let us off at least. We were in row two so we got a seat at the one restaurant in the place, thankfully.

Finally got to MDW at 5PM. Drove to Wadsworth, IL in a deluge. Could not get on the Eisenhower as all the viaducts were full. Thankfully I know my way around Chicago. Made it Wadsworth at 7:30. Crapper of a day.

Lots of exposure. Feel fine, so far...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2023, 02:42:31 PM
This stuff is gonna keep dripping. And dripping. And dripping.

(https://i.imgur.com/3pqfSpw.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 14, 2023, 03:39:13 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 14, 2023, 02:42:31 PM
This stuff is gonna keep dripping. And dripping. And dripping.

(https://i.imgur.com/3pqfSpw.png)
Conspiracy Theorists.    Oh…. Wait… that phase has past now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 16, 2023, 07:45:06 AM
I just got it and while the first time I felt totally fine, this time definitely had a mild fever and congestion.  Basically just a normal cold after I took some Advil.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 16, 2023, 10:03:50 AM
Yeah, that's pretty much what I hear from anyone who has gotten it.

I've had 2 round-trip flights to Chicago in the past couple of weeks. I got nothing.

I'm going to try to get it before this wedding in LA on 08/05. That would get me out of that root canal experience. Black tie at an A-lister place. Not my cup of tea.

Kidding... Kinda.

Meal choices included only one meat option - fish. No beef or chicken. 3 vegan choices.

WTF.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 16, 2023, 11:35:19 AM
I've never tested positive for it.  I conclude that is due to my clean living ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 16, 2023, 07:41:35 PM
Some friends just came by with food and meds.  That was unexpected.  I think they're overreacting, but the sentiment is touching.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 16, 2023, 10:13:22 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 16, 2023, 07:41:35 PM
Some friends just came by with food and meds.  That was unexpected.  I think they're overreacting, but the sentiment is touching.
The best friends are the ones who do the unexpected and unnecessary.  Sounds like you have some good ones.  Best wishes for a speedy recovery.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 17, 2023, 07:31:39 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/mvvWKQL.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2023, 08:23:41 AM
Quote from: utee94 on July 16, 2023, 10:13:22 PM
The best friends are the ones who do the unexpected and unnecessary.  Sounds like you have some good ones.  Best wishes for a speedy recovery.
I'm guessing it's already over for him. 1-3 days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2023, 03:58:38 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 17, 2023, 07:31:39 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/mvvWKQL.png)
Those peaks are pretty massive.  Percentages like that are scary, no matter the plain numbers.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 17, 2023, 04:01:21 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2023, 08:23:41 AM
I'm guessing it's already over for him. 1-3 days.
I'm close to normalish.  Mostly just been eating a little here and there.  I'm ready to stuff my face.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 22, 2023, 12:07:47 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/fMdew9G.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 22, 2023, 12:17:08 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 22, 2023, 12:07:47 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/fMdew9G.png)
An employer's legal right to do this and I like it
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 22, 2023, 01:15:02 PM
Tested negative yesterday.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 22, 2023, 01:17:19 PM
"An employer's legal right to do this and I like it"

Businesses can't masks in Cali or Oregon. It's against state law in those. Yes, state law.

State.

Law.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 22, 2023, 02:45:30 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 22, 2023, 01:17:19 PM
"An employer's legal right to do this and I like it"

Businesses can't masks in Cali or Oregon. It's against state law in those. Yes, state law.

State.

Law.




Thats just as wrong as requiring masking

The government should keep out of this unless there is an actual pandemic
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 22, 2023, 03:29:32 PM
the government should stay out of it regardless

they should stay out of most things
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 22, 2023, 04:47:45 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 22, 2023, 02:45:30 PM
The government should keep out of this unless there is an actual pandemic
Yeah, I was thinking our "government" didn't do such a great job in the pandemic as it was.  I forgive some of it because so little was known initiallly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 23, 2023, 08:00:36 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 22, 2023, 04:47:45 PM
Yeah, I was thinking our "government" didn't do such a great job in the pandemic as it was.  I forgive some of it because so little was known initiallly.
People knew. They just didn't tell us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 23, 2023, 08:06:39 AM
told us plenty of BS
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 23, 2023, 10:02:34 AM
I personally didn't know much about COVID early on obviously.  I don't think anyone did.  Hence this enormous thread.  "We" here were searching for information about it, how bad it could be, what was happening in Italy, whether it would die out or be like 1918-19, whether a vaccine might be developed in time for anything, etc.

I haven't seen compelling clear evidence that folks in our government knew much about this and just didn't tell us (or Trump).  I don't know why this would happen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 23, 2023, 12:20:00 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 23, 2023, 10:02:34 AM
I personally didn't know much about COVID early on obviously.  I don't think anyone did.  Hence this enormous thread.  "We" here were searching for information about it, how bad it could be, what was happening in Italy, whether it would die out or be like 1918-19, whether a vaccine might be developed in time for anything, etc.

I haven't seen compelling clear evidence that folks in our government knew much about this and just didn't tell us (or Trump).  I don't know why this would happen.
I wasn't talking about OUR government.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 23, 2023, 01:17:13 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 22, 2023, 04:47:45 PM
Yeah, I was thinking our "government" didn't do such a great job in the pandemic as it was.  I forgive some of it because so little was known initiallly.
I was commenting on our government.  I have no idea what the Chinese may have known, it's pretty much entirely speculation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 23, 2023, 03:31:23 PM

May 2018The Trump Administration disbands the White House pandemic response team.
July 2019The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) epidemiologist embedded in China’s disease control agency left the post, and the Trump Administration eliminated the role.
Oct. 2019“Currently, there are insufficient funding sources designated for the federal government to use in response to a severe influenza pandemic.”
Jan. 22, 2020“We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. It’s going to be just fine.”
Jan. 24, 2020Trump praises China’s handling of the coronavirus: “China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus. The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!”
Jan. 28, 2020“This will be the biggest national security threat you face in your presidency...This is going to be the roughest thing you face" Trump’s National Security Advisor to Trump
Jan. 30, 2020"The lack of immune protection or an existing cure or vaccine would leave Americans defenseless in the case of a full-blown coronavirus outbreak on US soil,...This lack of protection elevates the risk of the coronavirus evolving into a full-blown pandemic, imperiling the lives of millions of Americans.” [Memo from Trump Trade Advisor Peter Navarro]
Feb. 2, 2020“We pretty much shut it down coming in from China.”
Feb. 7, 2020“It’s also more deadly than even your strenuous flu... This is deadly stuff” [Trump in a private interview with Bob Woodward from The Washington Post made public on Sept. 9, 2020]
Feb. 10, 2020“I think the virus is going to be—it’s going to be fine.”
Feb. 10, 2020“Looks like by April, you know in theory when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away.”
Feb. 24, 2020“The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA… the Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”
Feb. 25, 2020“CDC and my Administration are doing a GREAT job of handling Coronavirus.”
Feb. 25, 2020“I think that's a problem that’s going to go away… They have studied it. They know very much. In fact, we’re very close to a vaccine.”
Feb. 26, 2020“The 15 (cases in the US) within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”
Feb. 26, 2020“We're going very substantially down, not up.”
Feb. 26, 2020“Well, we're testing everybody that we need to test. And we're finding very little problem. Very little problem.”
Feb. 26, 2020"This is a flu. This is like a flu."
Feb. 27, 2020“It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 23, 2023, 03:49:03 PM
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/from-new-york-to-canada-to-the-white-house-initial-coronavirus-responses-havent-aged-well


You left a lot out Fro.   As expected 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 23, 2023, 04:01:14 PM
All I could have posted was the top entry.  Most of the rest was predictable.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 23, 2023, 04:07:43 PM
I didn't view out government's response to COVID as having much to do with Trump.  Yes, he caused a few things to happen, but mostly he seemed to me just to be grandstanding.  I guess he did something to get the vaccine program accelerated, I was never clear on what specifically.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 23, 2023, 04:08:14 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 23, 2023, 04:01:14 PM
All I could have posted was the top entry.  Most of the rest was predictable. 
What you posted was the standard “ it’s all Trumps fault” edition. 

Factually- even when he tried to do the right thing- the DEMS fought against it, we’re in complete denial, and skirted all of their responsibility- through their bought and paid for media.
Trump gets no free ride here, but the media/ left narrative is revisionist history.  And much of their narrative has been completely debunked as it relates to lock down, masks, origin, vaccines, etc. etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 23, 2023, 04:18:40 PM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 23, 2023, 04:08:14 PM
What you posted was the standard “ it’s all Trumps fault” edition. 

Factually- even when he tried to do the right thing- the DEMS fought against it, we’re in complete denial, and skirted all of their responsibility- through their bought and paid for media.
Trump gets no free ride here, but the media/ left narrative is revisionist history.  And much of their narrative has been completely debunked as it relates to lock down, masks, origin, vaccines, etc. etc.

Can you comment on the top 2 entries?  Anything?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 23, 2023, 05:06:53 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 23, 2023, 04:18:40 PM
Can you comment on the top 2 entries?  Anything?
Sure. Not very smart moves in hindsight.  Not sure what the reasoning would be.  Cost cutting?   Didn’t trust the work being done?   Not sure. 

Also not sure it would have made much difference. Nobody seemed to understand what was just unleashed in the world- Trump included.  Virtually all of his actions- once the severity was clear- was vehemently opposed by the left and the media.  

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 23, 2023, 05:13:40 PM
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/09/10/fact-check-white-house-didnt-fire-pandemic-response-2018/3437356001/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 23, 2023, 09:46:04 PM
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/362970824_3221384664673681_3084667480566573289_n.jpg?_nc_cat=106&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=5cd70e&_nc_ohc=ymumsLREBfQAX-8qQu8&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=00_AfCwbHPsozCOFidfolCz-XVR4UEVy1CzaICOzfLyHnXXag&oe=64C1E87C)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 24, 2023, 07:50:26 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 23, 2023, 05:13:40 PM
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/09/10/fact-check-white-house-didnt-fire-pandemic-response-2018/3437356001/
Yep. I was just going to get into that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 24, 2023, 07:51:56 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 23, 2023, 03:31:23 PM
May 2018The Trump Administration disbands the White House pandemic response team.
July 2019The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) epidemiologist embedded in China’s disease control agency left the post, and the Trump Administration eliminated the role.
Oct. 2019“Currently, there are insufficient funding sources designated for the federal government to use in response to a severe influenza pandemic.”
Jan. 22, 2020“We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. It’s going to be just fine.”
Jan. 24, 2020Trump praises China’s handling of the coronavirus: “China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus. The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!”
Jan. 28, 2020“This will be the biggest national security threat you face in your presidency...This is going to be the roughest thing you face" Trump’s National Security Advisor to Trump
Jan. 30, 2020"The lack of immune protection or an existing cure or vaccine would leave Americans defenseless in the case of a full-blown coronavirus outbreak on US soil,...This lack of protection elevates the risk of the coronavirus evolving into a full-blown pandemic, imperiling the lives of millions of Americans.” [Memo from Trump Trade Advisor Peter Navarro]
Feb. 2, 2020“We pretty much shut it down coming in from China.”
Feb. 7, 2020“It’s also more deadly than even your strenuous flu... This is deadly stuff” [Trump in a private interview with Bob Woodward from The Washington Post made public on Sept. 9, 2020]
Feb. 10, 2020“I think the virus is going to be—it’s going to be fine.”
Feb. 10, 2020“Looks like by April, you know in theory when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away.”
Feb. 24, 2020“The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA… the Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”
Feb. 25, 2020“CDC and my Administration are doing a GREAT job of handling Coronavirus.”
Feb. 25, 2020“I think that's a problem that’s going to go away… They have studied it. They know very much. In fact, we’re very close to a vaccine.”
Feb. 26, 2020“The 15 (cases in the US) within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”
Feb. 26, 2020“We're going very substantially down, not up.”
Feb. 26, 2020“Well, we're testing everybody that we need to test. And we're finding very little problem. Very little problem.”
Feb. 26, 2020"This is a flu. This is like a flu."
Feb. 27, 2020“It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”


Now do Saint Fauci.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 24, 2023, 08:52:59 AM
Didn't Pelosi encourage people to get out, mingle, and hug someone in Chinatown?  That's actually more dangerous than the quotes from Trump, above.

Suffice to say, the politicians on #bothsides missed pretty badly, and a lot of it was because they politicized it from the beginning in an attempt to tear down the other party.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 24, 2023, 08:57:01 AM
Yes, she did.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 24, 2023, 08:58:18 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/vIX9qIH.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 24, 2023, 08:58:35 AM
She did, it was an effort to offset Trump's ban on travel from China, which was called "racist" at the time.  It was nearly all politicized by both of course.  Any chance to gig someone was taken even if it was silly.

I stopped "listening" to ANY politician about it, and then I mostly stopped listening to any expert, or at least I'd try and weigh their credibility.  I'm not as down on Fauci/Birx as some here.    The CDC made some errors of course.

I remember the shut down, and then the governor here opened things up, legally, on April 23, which Trump said was "too soon".  The thing is hardly anything opened up.  We were getting  a lot of take out to help restaurants survive.  Slowly a few opened up with tables separated and everyone wearing masks.  That was actually a relief.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 24, 2023, 09:04:44 AM
Florida was open by May. Masks were gone in July, if I remember right.

Illinois is still closed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 24, 2023, 09:27:45 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 24, 2023, 09:04:44 AM
Florida was open by May. Masks were gone in July, if I remember right.

Illinois is still closed.
Unless you commit a violent crime.   Then it’s wide open- no bail.  😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 24, 2023, 10:57:48 AM
Good thing he is vaxed. 3 times over the course of one year. Yay Vax!!

(https://i.imgur.com/4tg2HRt.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 24, 2023, 10:59:02 AM
"Once you get Covid, you cannot get it again."

Remember that?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 24, 2023, 11:08:01 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 24, 2023, 10:59:02 AM
"Once you get Covid, you cannot get it again."

Remember that?
😂😂😂

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 24, 2023, 11:36:42 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 24, 2023, 09:27:45 AM
Unless you commit a violent crime.  Then it’s wide open- no bail.  😂😂
You can still be held if you are clearly a danger to society, no bail is still around.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 24, 2023, 11:48:39 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 24, 2023, 10:59:02 AM
"Once you get Covid, you cannot get it again."

Remember that?
I don't recall hearing that, but it must have been some pol or media personality, it makes no sense a priori.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 24, 2023, 12:02:13 PM
We had many discussions on T cells and B cells in this very thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 24, 2023, 12:08:30 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 24, 2023, 11:36:42 AM
You can still be held if you are clearly a danger to society, no bail is still around.
Yes- problem is the wide variety of interpretation of “ danger to society “. 

Murder, rape or armed robbery don’t seem to qualify in Chicago.  But god forbid misgender someone or go to a school board meeting to question pornography in the curriculum. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 24, 2023, 12:14:15 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2021, 12:05:43 PM
Dose #1 is in the house.
I now wish it wasn't in me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 24, 2023, 02:05:45 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 24, 2023, 11:36:42 AM
You can still be held if you are clearly a danger to society, no bail is still around.
so bank robber A is deemed a danger but bank robber B who ihas a friendly smile is not

the nature of the crime should determine if there is a threat not the judge
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 24, 2023, 02:12:29 PM
It's not really different from the old System all that much, in both cases a defendant judged to be a flight risk and/or a danger would be remanded without bail.  The only purpose of monetary bail was to ensure the defendant shows up in court.  Now that part is gone, if a judge previously ruled the defendant would be remaned, nothing changes.  Now folks without much money would be released OR instead of being held if they could not post bail.

So really dangerous defendants will receive the same treatment.  It has always bothered me that a poor person could be held in jail without being convicted while a wealthier person posts bail and gets out.  As for how this all works, we'll see.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 24, 2023, 03:46:18 PM
so when so many folks fail to appear in court and the system is overwhelmed will folks start the realize that a mistake was made
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 24, 2023, 03:48:16 PM
Yes, I'd guess a lot of them will fail to appear.  A fair number jump bail, which means the bondsman comes after them rather hard.  My guess is if they fail to appear and a bench warrant is issued and they are rearrested, they are remanded.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 24, 2023, 10:53:36 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on July 24, 2023, 02:05:45 PM
so bank robber A is deemed a danger but bank robber B who ihas a friendly smile is not

the nature of the crime should determine if there is a threat not the judge
so, Judges aren't to be trusted?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 24, 2023, 10:57:10 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 24, 2023, 10:53:36 PM
so, Judges aren't to be trusted?
Judges should be dismissed if they're easily identified as far left or far right.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 24, 2023, 10:59:35 PM
Quote from: utee94 on July 24, 2023, 08:52:59 AM
Didn't Pelosi encourage people to get out, mingle, and hug someone in Chinatown?  That's actually more dangerous than the quotes from Trump, above.



Which one was the president?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 24, 2023, 11:00:29 PM
I'm not concerned with their political views

I just want them to be trusted to set bail accordingly for folks that may or may not appear in court or who might do something stupid or criminal while out on bail
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 24, 2023, 11:02:13 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 24, 2023, 10:59:35 PM
Which one was the president?
which one was the elected politician that was hopefully a leader and voice for their people?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 24, 2023, 11:03:10 PM
I mean, I KNEW for a fact they were both idiots

but, many dolts believed in either of them and actually voted for them
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 24, 2023, 11:05:34 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 24, 2023, 11:00:29 PM
I'm not concerned with their political views

I just want them to be trusted to set bail accordingly for folks that may or may not appear in court or who might do something stupid or criminal while out on bail
Yeah, it'd be great if we lived in a world in which their political views didn't affect their decisions at work, but that's not the case.
The UGA LB raped a girl and got 1 year.  2 years, but concurrent.  
Betcha a dollar he's a big-time football player and she's black.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 24, 2023, 11:09:43 PM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 24, 2023, 11:05:34 PM
Yeah, it'd be great if we lived in a world in which their political views didn't affect their decisions at work, but that's not the case.

agreed

it's a shame and a product of our political system and media
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 25, 2023, 08:07:00 AM
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 24, 2023, 10:57:10 PM
Judges should be dismissed if they're easily identified as far left or far right. 
You just got rid of the entire Crook County Circuit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 26, 2023, 09:28:53 AM
This is from a free NYT feed I get each AM, sometimes it's pretty good, this looks to me like a decent summary:


In the early days of the pandemic, I was speaking to a variety of U.S. intelligence officials who believed that China was hiding the truth of what happened with Covid. They were right: China was.

In the name of safety, Chinese officials ordered that coronavirus samples be destroyed. At best, this hampered the later investigation into Covid’s origins, and at worst it was a sign of a cover-up.
In this context, some of those intelligence officials believed that people were not paying enough attention to the lab-leak theory. They spoke about a history of accidents and safety problems in Chinese labs. Some, including the lab in Wuhan, also had a history of “gain of function” research, which tries to create dangerous viruses so scientists can learn how to combat them before they emerge in the wild.
The problem is that viruses can leak from labs with destructive effects. The 2001 anthrax attacks leaked (purposely) from Fort Detrick, one of the most secure labs in America, and a deadly 1977 flu outbreak likely came from a Soviet lab. (Josh Clark’s “The End of the World” podcast did an episode (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/OJ_td_quRK6iz9Fzc_eXmw~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRmo3oLP0T7aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuaWhlYXJ0LmNvbS9wb2RjYXN0LzEwNS10aGUtZW5kLW9mLXRoZS13b3JsZC13aXRoLTMwMDA2MDkzL2VwaXNvZGUvYmlvdGVjaG5vbG9neS0zMDE4NDkyMS8_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIzMDcyNiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD05ODQ2NCZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTE1MzM2ODkxMCZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE0MDI5MCZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9OGU1ZDJhMmI1ZTQ4YTY5NjU2MTkyY2MzYWYwYTkwMGNXA255dEIKZLYL9cBky2DNRFIRamNkb29tOUBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) on near-miss lab leaks.)
These patterns probably helped explain the conclusion that F.B.I. intelligence officials made, with medium confidence, that a lab leak was the most plausible origin of Covid. The Department of Energy also considers the lab-leak theory to be the more likely explanation, at least in part because of the safety protocols in the Chinese labs.
At the end of the Trump administration, the State Department released a piece of intelligence that seemed to bolster the lab-leak hypothesis: In late 2019, a few researchers at the Wuhan lab, known as the Wuhan Institute of Virology, became ill with flulike symptoms.
From the beginning, there were divisions in the U.S. intelligence community. The politics swirling around lab-leak idea made intelligence officers wary of reaching conclusions, for fear of being seen as partisan. Some Republicans had gravitated to the theory, and President Trump pushed it as a way to blame China (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/RwOTGhDjtijjQjA__L7Asg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRmo3oLP0T9aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wNC8zMC91cy9wb2xpdGljcy90cnVtcC1hZG1pbmlzdHJhdGlvbi1pbnRlbGxpZ2VuY2UtY29yb25hdmlydXMtY2hpbmEuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjMwNzI2Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTk4NDY0Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9MTUzMzY4OTEwJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTQwMjkwJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0Qgpktgv1wGTLYM1EUhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) for Covid. Some Democrats dismissed it as a conspiracy theory with xenophobic overtones.
Still, the lab-leak theory gained traction early in the Biden administration because of the sick Wuhan workers and China’s failure to cooperate with international investigators.
‘Not consistent’
(https://ci6.googleusercontent.com/proxy/A9gYW0G4ogWxgzDCi5sSkyJOUusrYHd8qksoP62v8IwkPoOsBR2K8rdymOyFSnNZElT72z2baPG6jcRLhdM0z-dVEvbEIVjr0Zn4oxDnYz0nRKPTmu4MYC61bgE9frd40OFK-YohTHBK-mGKFdGfQg6IjknpEPmvC1VYllTIyEXijLmmV4w=s0-d-e1-ft#https://static01.nyt.com/images/2023/07/26/multimedia/26-the-morning-lede2-pbtj/26-the-morning-lede2-pbtj-jumbo.jpg)
The Wuhan Institute of VirologyHector Retamal/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
But the situation has changed somewhat over the past year.
One development: U.S. intelligence agencies determined that the sick lab workers in Wuhan might not have had Covid. As a recent report explained, “The researchers’ symptoms could have been caused by a number of diseases and some of the symptoms were not consistent with Covid-19.” That report (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/Oiji7d26V1Mw9uhbUlp8PQ~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRmo3oLP4Q1AWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmRuaS5nb3YvZmlsZXMvT0ROSS9kb2N1bWVudHMvYXNzZXNzbWVudHMvUmVwb3J0LW9uLVBvdGVudGlhbC1MaW5rcy1CZXR3ZWVuLXRoZS1XdWhhbi1JbnN0aXR1dGUtb2YtVmlyb2xvZ3ktYW5kLXRoZS1PcmlnaW5zLW9mLUNPVklELTE5LTIwMjMwNjIzLnBkZj9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjMwNzI2Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTk4NDY0Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9MTUzMzY4OTEwJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTQwMjkwJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0Qgpktgv1wGTLYM1EUhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) — which is short and easy to read — is nominally neutral. But because it undermined some evidence that the lab-leak advocates had cited, the report had the effect of bolstering the case for natural transmission.
The intelligence community also says there is no evidence that the coronavirus research at the Wuhan lab could have been a precursor to the virus that causes Covid (as the Times Magazine story details (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/g6SJOHHPsrTtYEPj_7JTQA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRmo3oLP0TSaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8wNy8yNS9tYWdhemluZS9jb3ZpZC1zdGFydC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMzA3MjYmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9OTg0NjQmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xNTMzNjg5MTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDAyOTAmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPThlNWQyYTJiNWU0OGE2OTY1NjE5MmNjM2FmMGE5MDBjVwNueXRCCmS2C_XAZMtgzURSEWpjZG9vbTlAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD)).
This information helps explain why five intelligence agencies lean toward the natural-transmission theory. While officials have not explicitly outlined the reasoning, the scientific research tracking the virus’s origins seems to favor natural transmission.
The C.I.A., the nation’s premier spy agency, does not lean one way or the other. Officials say that is because too much evidence has been lost — because of the chaos of the pandemic, China’s destruction of samples and the passage of time.
U.S. intelligence agencies work by stealing secrets from other countries. But American officials said that China did not appear to want to know (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/kRXAYcs0mCFHkbgU7pboiw~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRmo3oLP0TuaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8wNi8yMS91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9jb3ZpZC1wYW5kZW1pYy1sYWItbGVhay1pbnRlbGxpZ2VuY2UuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjMwNzI2Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTk4NDY0Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9MTUzMzY4OTEwJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTQwMjkwJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0Qgpktgv1wGTLYM1EUhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) what caused the pandemic. Some Chinese officials believe the case for natural transmission. Others are less convinced but know that if evidence points to a lab leak, it will be bad for their country. So they have every incentive not to look. If you want to keep a secret, as George Orwell wrote, you must hide it from yourself.
We have to be prepared that we might never know the answer.
Related: “Some contrarians say that it doesn’t matter, the source of the virus. What matters, they say, is how we cope with the catastrophe it has brought, the illness and death it continues to cause,” David Quammen writes in the magazine (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/g6SJOHHPsrTtYEPj_7JTQA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRmo3oLP0TSaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8wNy8yNS9tYWdhemluZS9jb3ZpZC1zdGFydC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMzA3MjYmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9OTg0NjQmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xNTMzNjg5MTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDAyOTAmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPThlNWQyYTJiNWU0OGE2OTY1NjE5MmNjM2FmMGE5MDBjVwNueXRCCmS2C_XAZMtgzURSEWpjZG9vbTlAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD). “Those contrarians are wrong. It does matter.”


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on July 28, 2023, 01:22:07 AM
I was informed by a client, our local nursing home has an outbreak of COVID-19, again. I didn't know it was circulating around here.
I briefly heard today on NPR's "All Things Considered" that COVID-19 was creeping up, but it was my background noise, so I didn't digest much of the report. I thought I understood the current versions of the virus are not particularly injurious for most, but again, "All Things Considered" was my background noise, today.
Tomorrow, my background noise may be "Ranger Doug's Cowboy Corral."
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 30, 2023, 09:53:47 AM
The Weekend Australian Magazine | The Australian (https://www.theaustralian.com.au/weekend-australian-magazine)

(https://i.imgur.com/QyryYPQ.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on July 30, 2023, 04:26:33 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 30, 2023, 09:53:47 AM
The Weekend Australian Magazine | The Australian (https://www.theaustralian.com.au/weekend-australian-magazine)

(https://i.imgur.com/QyryYPQ.jpg)
Shocking.  😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on July 30, 2023, 11:45:23 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 30, 2023, 09:53:47 AM
The Weekend Australian Magazine | The Australian (https://www.theaustralian.com.au/weekend-australian-magazine)

[img width=362.997 height=500]https://i.imgur.com/QyryYPQ.jpg[/img]
Traveling?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 31, 2023, 06:37:52 AM
CDC says summer COVID wave may have begun : Shots - Health News : NPR (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2023/07/28/1190443473/the-cdc-sees-signs-of-a-late-summer-covid-wave)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 31, 2023, 08:32:34 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on July 30, 2023, 11:45:23 PM
Traveling?
No, I saw it on another board and placed it here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 31, 2023, 09:55:00 AM
still wondering why they didn't tell us the truth about the vaccines when they came out

the vaccines does not prevent COVID it simply lessens the symptoms

oh wait, I think I know
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 31, 2023, 09:56:40 AM
I think the original vaccine was pretty effective at "preventing" COVID infections.  The data were very strong in the clinical trials.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 31, 2023, 09:59:39 AM
everyone I know still got COVID eventually

even me, I got the original from Pfizer 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 31, 2023, 10:03:49 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 31, 2023, 09:59:39 AM
everyone I know still got COVID eventually

even me, I got the original from Pfizer
My understanding is that the last strain is much weaker then the original but is more resistent to the vacs and recatchable 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 31, 2023, 10:06:20 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 31, 2023, 09:55:00 AM
still wondering why they didn't tell us the truth about the vaccines when they came out

the vaccines does not prevent COVID it simply lessens the symptoms

oh wait, I think I know
I wonder why they told us it did prevent it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 31, 2023, 10:11:10 AM
I never tested positive, I don't think I ever had it.  My wife tested pos once.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on July 31, 2023, 10:14:59 AM
Everybody had it, CD.  4 or 5 times, probably.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 31, 2023, 10:19:54 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 31, 2023, 09:55:00 AM
still wondering why they didn't tell us the truth about the vaccines when they came out

the vaccines does not prevent COVID it simply lessens the symptoms

oh wait, I think I know
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 31, 2023, 09:56:40 AM
I think the original vaccine was pretty effective at "preventing" COVID infections.  The data were very strong in the clinical trials.

Yeah, it was pretty effective at preventing infection the OG, Alpha, and to a lesser extent Delta strains. 

Not so much Omicron or beyond. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 31, 2023, 10:29:21 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 31, 2023, 10:19:54 AM
Yeah, it was pretty effective at preventing infection the OG, Alpha, and to a lesser extent Delta strains.
that's not the feeling I have

if it was I feel like it would have stopped the spread and really reduced the number of cases
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 31, 2023, 10:56:00 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 31, 2023, 10:29:21 AM
that's not the feeling I have

if it was I feel like it would have stopped the spread and really reduced the number of cases
Yeah, well let's ask the "experts": https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8548286/

Basically says effective against OG, Alpha, and somewhat more limited effectiveness against Delta. It makes sense that as the virus mutates, and the vaccine was based upon earlier variants, it's harder for the body to recognize the changed/mutated strains. 

Of course, Delta was FAR more transmissible than OG or Alpha (https://www.thehartford.com/insights/home-workplace-safety/virus-mutations-covid-19). So that made it a lot harder...

Quote
The original strain of COVID-19 had a R0 value of 2 and the Alpha, or U.K., variant had a R0 of about 2 to 3.10 The delta variant had a R0 value of 5.11 One source has the omicron variant’s R0 value as 9.12


Something can be effective individually but still not work that well at a population level. The vaccines were hitting the bulk of population coverage (in the US anyway) in the summer of 2021, which was when Delta appeared. 

And then we got to Omicron, which the vaccine is basically useless against when it comes to preventing infection/spread. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 31, 2023, 11:14:09 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 31, 2023, 10:56:00 AM
Something can be effective individually but still not work that well at a population level. The vaccines were hitting the bulk of population coverage (in the US anyway) in the summer of 2021, which was when Delta appeared.
so, it was ineffective at preventing COVID and the spread
so they switched the story and told us it was good at lessening symptoms
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on July 31, 2023, 11:18:45 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 31, 2023, 11:14:09 AM
so, it was ineffective at preventing COVID and the spread
so they switched the story and told us it was good at lessening symptoms
You might be slightly unfair

The original vac was not designed for Omicron

Folks kept taking the original vac but still got omicron

fortunately omicron saved our ass cause even though everybody could get it several times over it was much weaker
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 31, 2023, 11:36:57 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 31, 2023, 11:14:09 AM
so, it was ineffective at preventing COVID and the spread
so they switched the story and told us it was good at lessening symptoms
More that it was quite effective at doing what it was designed to do, which is preventing infection of the variants of COVID it was built to emulate. 

However, then COVID mutated enough (Delta, which arrived well AFTER vaccines were available) that it was no longer as effective at preventing infection. But it WAS lessening symptoms and reducing mortality--which was important as Delta was just as lethal as the earlier strains but much more transmissible. So the vaccine still had value, and the messaging (rightly) changed to reflect its capabilities wrt Delta. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 31, 2023, 12:17:37 PM
so, by the time the vaccine came out, the virus had evolved enough that the vaccine was inefficient at prevention

I understand that wasn't the vaccine's fault.
I understand it may have been effective at lessening symptoms.

That's just not the messaging we got.  until later after most folks had taken two shots 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 31, 2023, 12:19:58 PM
When the vaccine first came out, it was pretty effective against the variant extant at the time.  It MAY have potentiated evolution of the newer variants.  I'd say for 6 months or so it was working as advertized.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 31, 2023, 12:26:34 PM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 31, 2023, 12:17:37 PM
so, by the time the vaccine came out, the virus had evolved enough that the vaccine was inefficient at prevention

I understand that wasn't the vaccine's fault.
I understand it may have been effective at lessening symptoms.

That's just not the messaging we got.  until later after most folks had taken two shots
You're missing points of the timeline. 


I recall summer 2021, after my wife and I both had our vaccines and the world was starting to reopen and we took our first air travel since the start of the pandemic, going to Seattle in July 2021. It was a few weeks after we got back, IIRC, that Delta started spiking hard. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on July 31, 2023, 02:01:38 PM
I get it

I just don't remember Fauci or anyone admitting that the vaccine was only good for lessening symptoms after Delta started spiking hard
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on July 31, 2023, 02:14:48 PM
I recall folks being pretty upfront that the immunity was dropping and the new variants were resistant.  There was a lot of nonmedically accurate crap being foisted by TV personalities back when.  Still is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 01, 2023, 08:23:20 AM
Illegal Chinese Biolab Uncovered In California, What They Found Is Deeply Disturbing (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/illegal-chinese-biolab-uncovered-in-california-what-they-found-is-deeply-disturbing/ar-AA1eyuir#:~:text=A Chinese-linked company was found running an unlicensed,by local and federal agents in Fresno County.)


This is not OK.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 01, 2023, 04:14:34 PM
COVID hospital admissions jump in what could be a new norm of summer surges | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4131057-covid-hospital-admissions-jump-in-what-could-be-a-new-norm-of-summer-surges/)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 01, 2023, 04:29:50 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 01, 2023, 04:14:34 PM
COVID hospital admissions jump in what could be a new norm of summer surges | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4131057-covid-hospital-admissions-jump-in-what-could-be-a-new-norm-of-summer-surges/)


With case numbers and covid deaths being at a minimum the news media needs to spend their time on stuff more important
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 01, 2023, 04:59:31 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 01, 2023, 04:14:34 PM
COVID hospital admissions jump in what could be a new norm of summer surges | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4131057-covid-hospital-admissions-jump-in-what-could-be-a-new-norm-of-summer-surges/)


This article uses a lot of words to say "nothing's really going on here". Click bait. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: HK_Vol on August 02, 2023, 04:01:13 PM

https://instapundit.com/598297/#disqus_thread


FOLLOW THE ACTUAL SCIENCE: ‘Caught-Red-Handed’: Scientists Call for Full Retraction of Nature’s Proximal Origin Paper, as Fraud Accusations Mount. (https://www.aier.org/article/caught-red-handed-scientists-call-for-full-retraction-of-natures-proximal-origin-paper-as-fraud-accusations-mount/)

Quote
The paper, whose authors included immunology and microbiology professor Kristian G. Andersen, declared that evidence clearly showed that SARS-CoV-2 did not originate from a laboratory.
“Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus,” the authors wrote in February.
Yet a trove of recently published documents reveal that Andersen and his co-authors believed that the lab leak scenario was not just possible, but likely.


They put politics over science while accusing dissenters of being science deniers.

Why? Follow the money: “To complicate matters further, new reporting from The Intercept reveals that Anderson had an $8.9 million grant with NIH pending final approval from Dr. Anthony Fauci when the Proximal Origin paper was submitted.”


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 03, 2023, 11:35:43 AM
“Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus,” the authors wrote in February.
Yet a trove of recently published documents reveal that Andersen and his co-authors believed that the lab leak scenario was not just possible, but likely.


Both can be true, or false, or either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 03, 2023, 11:46:19 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 03, 2023, 11:35:43 AM
“Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus,” the authors wrote in February.
Yet a trove of recently published documents reveal that Andersen and his co-authors believed that the lab leak scenario was not just possible, but likely.


Both can be true, or false, or either.
they both cant be true

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 03, 2023, 11:47:28 AM
Sure they can.  The article claims the virus was not modified by humans.  That could be true, and it still could have escaped from the lab as a natural zoonotic unmodified virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 03, 2023, 11:57:03 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 03, 2023, 11:47:28 AM
Sure they can.  The article claims the virus was not modified by humans.  That could be true, and it still could have escaped from the lab as a natural zoonotic unmodified virus.
what a coincidence

the virus in the lab that was not made by man excapes from a human controled environment

how many other viruses in that lab were man made which did not excape

this plus the fact that prior to being put in the lab it was out in public but with no big pandemic

only when the not made by man virus escaped from the lab did the pandemic start

plus they have never been able to fins another animal having this virus naturally that we know of


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2023, 12:04:05 PM
I believe it was created in a lab and have for 3+ years.

How it got out is in question.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 03, 2023, 12:04:56 PM
One can infer this or that, I merely point out that the two statements can both be true.  Whether they are or not is not determined in my mind.

It is plausible, I think, they were studying this virus and workers contracted it and then spread it around the city.  It's also possible someone brought them bats infected with it, and those folks spread it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 03, 2023, 12:55:13 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 03, 2023, 12:04:56 PM
One can infer this or that, I merely point out that the two statements can both be true.  Whether they are or not is not determined in my mind.

It is plausible, I think, they were studying this virus and workers contracted it and then spread it around the city.  It's also possible someone brought them bats infected with it, and those folks spread it.
again if this arrived through infected bats why cant we find another infected bat

the infected bat story is just a made up story China uses to save face

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 03, 2023, 01:01:26 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2023, 12:04:05 PM

How it got out is in question.

Well we know it leaked.  I guess you're asking, was it accidental or intentional?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 03, 2023, 01:03:25 PM
These bats are said to have come from a remote area in China.  I don't know how hard anyone looked for more of them, it sounds a bit dangerous to me.  But bats are known to harbor corona viruses.  Most of this stuff to me is inference, and opinion, not evidence based facts, because the Chinese haven't been very forthcoming.

I think virologists SHOULD be able to assess whether this was modified or not, and their balance of opinion seems to be it was not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2023, 01:46:52 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 03, 2023, 01:01:26 PM
Well we know it leaked.  I guess you're asking, was it accidental or intentional?
Yep.

And even if was an accident, the CCP did nothing to stop it from spreading. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 03, 2023, 01:52:12 PM
Quote from: utee94 on August 03, 2023, 01:01:26 PM
Well we know it leaked.  I guess you're asking, was it accidental or intentional?
How do we KNOW it leaked?  Is there hard evidence for that, or just supposition and inference?

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 03, 2023, 01:55:32 PM
Hiltzik: Another finding that COVID didn't come from a lab - Los Angeles Times (latimes.com) (https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2023-06-26/u-s-government-debunks-covid-lab-leak-conspiracy-theory-enraging-conspiracy-theorists)

If you think that the conspiracy folks would be satisfied with the report’s conclusion that there’s nothing to their claims, think again. As soon as the four-page document was released, they were grousing that the intelligence agencies must be part of a continuing global cover-up and that their failure to come completely clean violated the law.

This could well be highly biased, I dunno, but to say we KNOW it leaked from the lab is, to me, unjustified.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2023, 02:17:05 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 03, 2023, 01:52:12 PM
How do we KNOW it leaked?  Is there hard evidence for that, or just supposition and inference?


Because the CCP says it didn't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2023, 02:17:50 PM
LA times? 

That's where I stopped.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 03, 2023, 02:18:24 PM
I would not say we KNOW for sure how this originated.  I think there are many unanswered questions, and possibilities.

We can assume and presume and infer and speculate and think and whatever else, but to KNOW in my mind means something more definitive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 03, 2023, 02:18:59 PM
Report-on-Potential-Links-Between-the-Wuhan-Institute-of-Virology-and-the-Origins-of-COVID-19-20230623.pdf (dni.gov) (https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Report-on-Potential-Links-Between-the-Wuhan-Institute-of-Virology-and-the-Origins-of-COVID-19-20230623.pdf)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2023, 02:19:39 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 03, 2023, 02:18:24 PM
I would not say we KNOW for sure how this originated.  I think there are many unanswered questions, and possibilities.

We can assume and presume and infer and speculate and think and whatever else, but to KNOW in my mind means something more definitive.
It's the CCP.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 03, 2023, 02:20:30 PM
Well, I don't buy that line of "logic", at all.  I simply do not know how this originated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2023, 06:24:43 PM
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4162874-a-third-of-adults-believe-covid-19-vaccines-caused-thousands-of-sudden-deaths-poll/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 22, 2023, 10:24:31 PM
I have a buddy that is part of the 1/3rd
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 23, 2023, 08:34:01 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 22, 2023, 06:24:43 PM
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4162874-a-third-of-adults-believe-covid-19-vaccines-caused-thousands-of-sudden-deaths-poll/
Lots of data and studies out there support this, but you won't find any study by the CDC or FDA.

Germany, Great Britain, Israel and others have done and released some. Lots of fertility studies tool.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 23, 2023, 08:51:35 AM
Thousands of deaths?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 23, 2023, 08:51:59 AM
Yep.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 23, 2023, 10:46:57 AM
Well, the poll says a third of adults believe that.

I'd think it would make the "news" here somehow, but maybe not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 23, 2023, 11:26:26 AM
if you watch the right leaning news, it's there

2/3rds of the news is left leaning, as you know
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 23, 2023, 11:33:35 AM
I check a lot of "news" web sites daily and pretty often.  I find the business web sites to be least "political" and biased.  It pretty easy to spot a "lean" of course, Fox News is pretty much how awful Biden is, MSNBC is the same only about Trump and a few Republicans.  Those are obviously two of the more clear cut examples.  I checked a few other sites like OAN and NM and found them, um, lacking, not useful.  The Hill is more aligned with what interests me, outside business, and it doesn't dwell so obviously on how awful some candidate or politician is.  

I'd also note that almost any time there is a news report in the mass news media outlets where I think I know something about the topic it's garbled and misleading.  Fortunately, there isn't a whole lot I know something about.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 23, 2023, 11:40:08 AM
Article misrepresents CDC data, falsely links deaths to COVID vaccines | AP News (https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-excess-deaths-covid-died-suddenly-793316776380)

I googled this, and found what I expected, a lot of "fact check" articles saying it's false, and some other articles claiming it's true, in places one would expect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 24, 2023, 01:15:22 PM
CDC Announces Deadly New 'Electionyearicron' Covid Variant | Babylon Bee (https://babylonbee.com/news/cdc-announces-deadly-new-electionyearicron-covid-variant?utm_source=The Babylon Bee)


:57:
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 26, 2023, 09:53:54 PM
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-administration-urge-americans-get-new-covid-19-boosters-2023-08-20/


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on August 26, 2023, 09:56:49 PM
They just cant let it go

If they can just create a panic in time for the coming election they might have a repeat of 2020
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 27, 2023, 08:16:46 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on August 22, 2023, 10:24:31 PM
I have a buddy that is part of the 1/3rd
Unfortunately you mean "had" don't you? A friend absolutely swears her aunt died 4-5 hrs after one of the shots
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on August 27, 2023, 08:18:40 AM
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on August 26, 2023, 09:53:54 PM
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-administration-urge-americans-get-new-covid-19-boosters-2023-08-20/
Even people in group homes don't believe that babbling blisterhead
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 27, 2023, 08:42:49 AM
I don't believe what some politician says about anything technical, but I tend to believe what I read posted by "experts" if it makes sense to me.  We'll be getting a shot in a few weeks, flu as well.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 27, 2023, 08:46:56 AM
No more shots in this household.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 27, 2023, 09:02:00 AM
Like so many things, this has beecome political.  So, folks will often do whatever Biden recommends or suggests, or the exact opposite.

Whatever Biden says doesn't mean a thing to me, nor what Trump says or said, about a technical topic.  It's akin to the climate change story, which really shouldn't be political but obviously is.  I think this will happen every time some technical issue gets in front of the public who will make a decision based on politics, rather than science.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 27, 2023, 09:03:17 AM
not for me

 a friend with the 97 year old father that didn't get any shots now says he will

he and pops got Covid months ago.  Pops was in the hospital a few weeks
Buddy had the long Covid, was down for over a month maybe 6 -7 weeks before back to normal
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 27, 2023, 09:25:02 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 27, 2023, 09:02:00 AM
Like so many things, this has beecome political.  So, folks will often do whatever Biden recommends or suggests, or the exact opposite.

Whatever Biden says doesn't mean a thing to me, nor what Trump says or said, about a technical topic.  It's akin to the climate change story, which really shouldn't be political but obviously is.  I think this will happen every time some technical issue gets in front of the public who will make a decision based on politics, rather than science.


My decision is not political at all. I know my body and my body did not like the "vaccine". Why would I inject something into my body that it doesn't like - especially something that really doesn't work?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 27, 2023, 09:29:19 AM
yup, if the vaccine is somewhat proven to be effective, I'll change my mind and get it.

If it's similar to the past vaccines, it's not worth it

my body had no problem at all with the first two shots
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 27, 2023, 09:37:56 AM
What would convince you it's "proven effective"?

As for what a body may not like, I can think of a lot of things I do that my body resists, for health reasons.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 27, 2023, 09:50:13 AM
much fewer percentages of hospitalizations
much better lessening of symptoms

a much more positive response from those that take the vaccine

it could happen that a new vaccine could hit the new variant square and be much better

I kinda doubt it but I'm willing to wait and see
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 27, 2023, 09:54:02 AM
I'd look for a reputable double blind clinical trial result, if one is available.  Anything else is anecdotal, to me, or subject to a long wait period.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 27, 2023, 09:58:45 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 27, 2023, 09:37:56 AM
What would convince you it's "proven effective"?

As for what a body may not like, I can think of a lot of things I do that my body resists, for health reasons.
If you get the vaccine, your chances of getting Covid are less than 2 percent.

That might do it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 27, 2023, 10:03:19 AM
I'm ok with a long wait period
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 27, 2023, 10:10:07 AM
I was chatting with an older fellow who lives in the building the other day, I had been running and was sweaty.  He said he'd like to exercise more but had "long COVID", which to me is a thing I'm not very clear about.  I infer he had lingering respiratory issues from COVID, or something.  I don't know how true all this is, it at times could be a mistake to just be sedentary, or perhaps there are other issues.

Anyway, if it's a real thing, I'd prefer to minimize any risk of it, and risk of COVID itself.  

There are two things about vaccinations:

1.  The obvious one is protection of the individual to whatever degree,
2.  The second is protection of "Society" by cutting down on transmission.

The flu vaccine is mostly recommended because of the second item for younger folks.  It's unlikely in a given year a person gets the flu, then it's also just a chance the vaccine prevents the right kind of flu.  One can go years without getting the flu.  Ostensibly, if we had 100% vax rates, the flu wouldn't persist (if they get the mix right, which is a major variable in itself).

We both got what I think was the flu a few years back and it was quite unpleasant, and we were in Hawaii.  Anyway, I sense vax intolerance in the US is at record highs now when it comes to COVID, so the second item above isn't going to work well at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on August 27, 2023, 10:14:53 AM
I got the flu for the first time in my life last year.  It felt pretty awful for about 3-4 days.  I got the flu shot a month before, but last year I think the vaccine manufacturers "missed" the right strain, and the virus cut through our community and knocked out all the high school kids and most of their parents, over a period of about a week and a half.

I'll certainly get the flu vaccine again this year, in the hopes I can avoid what I had last year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 27, 2023, 10:22:14 AM
Yeah, the have to make a decision on flu variants to put in the vaccine quite early, and they can miss some or badly, and the strain prevalent in your area can be different.

I had not been so sick in many decades, it was awful.  I had not been vaccinated, I didn't do the flu vax back then based on what I heard from the CDC lady who decided what goes into the vaccine at the time.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 27, 2023, 10:25:53 AM
I will get the flu shot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 27, 2023, 10:32:30 AM
I went from not getting the flu shot to getting it every season for many years to not caring too much either way

I will get it this season if the opportunity is right.

always seem to be in a bit of a hurry and don't have the extra 15-20 minutes to wait to get the shot
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on August 27, 2023, 10:43:59 AM
It's quick and easy around here anyway.  We can walk to the CVS and they get to us in a few minutes.  My wife makes the reservations.

Cost is zero for us.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on August 27, 2023, 10:46:58 AM
yup, I get mine at the grocery store
usually get a coupon to save 20 cents per gallon on gas
can't set up an appt, but it usually only takes 10 or 15 minutes

it's just that I'm usually in a hurry to get out of that place and think it's so easy I can just do it next time
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 08, 2023, 10:05:44 PM
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/375015977_6865142113507292_2253815793188860327_n.jpg?_nc_cat=110&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=5614bc&_nc_ohc=Y4fN1DHYWDcAX-ORnrU&_nc_oc=AQlMKXkWXhb9_ckJWXq6Hhaazu-fn0InOF_wRA4Iei_ez-SuQTy_g0BpMCV544fgL_g&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=00_AfCdn6RnpUrHPpfhMsnRTaHjxTOuWcMC491xc0H4I1edew&oe=65012395)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on September 08, 2023, 11:07:16 PM
My wife was positive for Flu-B last month.  We were like wtf.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 09, 2023, 08:52:10 AM
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/antibodies-latest-coronavirus-variant-cdc
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 18, 2023, 09:12:19 AM
Good downtick here.

(https://i.imgur.com/bPiwK71.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/6WQYMXy.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 18, 2023, 09:20:50 AM
We're signed up Friday for flu/COVID vax at a CVS.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 18, 2023, 09:35:44 AM
going to my annual checkup biometric screening this morning

might let them give me the flu shot, while I'm sitting there

if they are mixing it with the COVID vax, probably not
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 18, 2023, 09:39:57 AM
I did my annual screening last week and they had the flu shot, which I got.  Didn't even offer me the COVID shot and I didn't ask about it.

I sure hope they got the strain correct on the flu shot this year.  Last year they missed, and I got the flu for the first time ever.  It was truly miserable.  Far, far worse than the couple of days of mild discomfort from COVID.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 18, 2023, 09:41:44 AM
I don't think anyone has combined flu and COVID, it's two separate shots now, I know it's been talked about.  There also is this RSV vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 18, 2023, 09:51:08 AM
Quote from: utee94 on September 18, 2023, 09:39:57 AM
I did my annual screening last week and they had the flu shot, which I got.  Didn't even offer me the COVID shot and I didn't ask about it.

I sure hope they got the strain correct on the flu shot this year.  Last year they missed, and I got the flu for the first time ever.  It was truly miserable.  Far, far worse than the couple of days of mild discomfort from COVID.
Ive never had the flu or the shot

not saying Im against the shot just never needed it

course I no longer have children at home nor a job to go to so that helps
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 18, 2023, 10:29:00 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 18, 2023, 09:51:08 AM
Ive never had the flu or the shot

not saying Im against the shot just never needed it

course I no longer have children at home nor a job to go to so that helps
I don't get the flu shot every year, maybe 50% of the time,  but I did last year.

And I also wasn't sure if I'd ever had the flu before.  Now, I know.  I had definitely never had the flu before, because I've never felt as sick and miserable as I did last year when I had the flu.  Multiple days of fever, chills, body aches, sore throat, runny nose, coughing.  Just awful.

The Montezuma's Revenge I got in Mexico many years back might have felt as bad, but it only lasted 24-36 hours. The flu went on for days and days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Temp430 on September 18, 2023, 10:58:51 AM
Got a bad case of the flu in the Fall of 1984 and missed over a week of school.   No memory of the passage of some days.  Should have went to the university infirmary but didn't know better.  Been getting my flu shot every year since. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 20, 2023, 03:43:44 PM
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1704578545182208030?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1704578545182208030%7Ctwgr%5Ed9a98ee933488086d016f610b21edbd27df45374%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.surlyhorns.com%2Fboard%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fx.com%2FAP%2Fstatus%2F1704578545182208030%3Fs%3D20
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 20, 2023, 03:50:37 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 20, 2023, 03:43:44 PM
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1704578545182208030?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1704578545182208030%7Ctwgr%5Ed9a98ee933488086d016f610b21edbd27df45374%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.surlyhorns.com%2Fboard%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fx.com%2FAP%2Fstatus%2F1704578545182208030%3Fs%3D20

This is so F'd up on all levels.

REAL practicing doctors are saying they cannot differentiate symptoms between Covid, the common cold and the flu RIGHT NOW.

Follow the money on this one. MF'ers should be in prison.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on September 20, 2023, 04:08:38 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 20, 2023, 03:50:37 PM
This is so F'd up on all levels.

REAL practicing doctors are saying they cannot differentiate symptoms between Covid, the common cold and the flu RIGHT NOW.

Follow the money on this one. MF'ers should be in prison.
also follow the 2024 election cause Im sure the states will have to take drastic action for folks to vote
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 20, 2023, 04:26:47 PM
Does this justify the spending of $600M?

(https://i.imgur.com/rTMXGAf.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 20, 2023, 05:34:50 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 20, 2023, 03:50:37 PM
This is so F'd up on all levels.

REAL practicing doctors are saying they cannot differentiate symptoms between Covid, the common cold and the flu RIGHT NOW.

Follow the money on this one. MF'ers should be in prison.
I wouldn't expect doctors to be able to detect COVID based on symptoms alone.  I think it useful for folks to know if they do have COVID so as to avoid contact with folks for whom COVID could be dangerous.  The flu can be dangerous for them as well of course.

I think some in government think COVID can be stamped out, and it can't.  It's endemic.  But we could do a better job protecting the more vulnerable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 20, 2023, 06:35:27 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 18, 2023, 09:39:57 AM
I did my annual screening last week and they had the flu shot, which I got.  Didn't even offer me the COVID shot and I didn't ask about it.

same for me Monday
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 21, 2023, 06:56:10 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 20, 2023, 05:34:50 PM
I wouldn't expect doctors to be able to detect COVID based on symptoms alone.  I think it useful for folks to know if they do have COVID so as to avoid contact with folks for whom COVID could be dangerous.  The flu can be dangerous for them as well of course.

I think some in government think COVID can be stamped out, and it can't.  It's endemic.  But we could do a better job protecting the more vulnerable.
They used to. Covid is now a cold. That's it.

Are people still dying WITH Covid? Yep, a few. But it ain't FROM Covid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 21, 2023, 06:56:38 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 20, 2023, 04:26:47 PM
Does this justify the spending of $600M?

(https://i.imgur.com/rTMXGAf.png)
Obviously not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 21, 2023, 07:20:04 AM
I think older could can die due to COVID.  They would be alive if they didn't contract it.  COVID led to deterioration and then pneumonia.

I read somewhere that old folks can die from a broken leg, in effect, it puts them out of being able to do much like walking for a while, and then they are susceptible to other maladies.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 21, 2023, 08:01:18 AM
Yes, and you can die from a pillow fight if you have COPD, diabetes, obesity, etc.

This crap is getting old.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 21, 2023, 08:33:35 AM
Covid symptoms are now more mild and follow a pattern, doctors say (nbcnews.com) (https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/covid-symptoms-mild-follow-pattern-doctors-say-rcna105090)


Doctors say they're finding it increasingly difficult to distinguish Covid from allergies or the common cold, even as hospitalizations tick up.

The illness' past hallmarks, such as a dry cough or the loss of sense of taste or smell, have become less common. Instead, doctors are observing milder disease, mostly concentrated in the upper respiratory tract.

"It isn’t the same typical symptoms that we were seeing before. It’s a lot of congestion, sometimes sneezing, usually a mild sore throat," said Dr. Erick Eiting, vice chair of operations for emergency medicine at Mount Sinai Downtown in New York City.


The sore throat usually arrives first, he said, then congestion.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 21, 2023, 08:37:25 AM
I have been paying little attention to COVID for over a year now.  I like to be informed if it appears cases are ticking up, but that's about it.  It has had ner zero impact on our lives.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 21, 2023, 08:43:25 AM
Quote from: utee94 on September 18, 2023, 09:39:57 AM
I did my annual screening last week and they had the flu shot, which I got.  Didn't even offer me the COVID shot and I didn't ask about it.
Should have inquired about Tito's why not? It's the same shyt your wash your hands with just taken differently
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 21, 2023, 08:54:21 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/JNldF1y.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 21, 2023, 09:09:34 AM
I might worry about COVID again when I'm 90.
If something else doesn't kill be before then
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 21, 2023, 09:38:23 AM
My approach is to try and stay a bit informed, but not worried.  As we do some international travel, I need to keep up with any regs where we're headed, or on the plane or ship.  I still see the occasional person in the park wearing a mask, 30+ feet from anyone else.  There is an elderly couple in the building who usually is masked on the elevator, fine with me.  I ask them if it's OK if I join them and then turn my head away.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 21, 2023, 09:42:21 AM
Saw a person the other day, driving alone in a convertible, with a mask on.  I think some folks just really like the mask.  Maybe they have ugly mouths?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on September 21, 2023, 09:45:49 AM
it's a Texas thang
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 21, 2023, 09:50:24 AM
I think for some it's a political statement.  And vice versa.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 21, 2023, 10:18:16 AM
I did see a noticeable uptick in mask-wearing in the recent 2 months where we've had a little bit of a mini-wave of cases. 

Still, even here in California, it's a tiny minority. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 21, 2023, 10:34:07 AM
Saw lots of masks at ORD this last trip. I'd say 1 in 5 were masked on the plane ride home. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on September 21, 2023, 10:43:24 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 21, 2023, 10:34:07 AM
Saw lots of masks at ORD this last trip. I'd say 1 in 5 were masked on the plane ride home.
On planes these days, it's probably a good idea just to wear full SCBA gear.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 21, 2023, 11:00:05 AM
There were no kids aboard.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 21, 2023, 11:06:19 AM
I recall our flight to Germany on Lufthansa, the flight attendants were manic about mask wearing.  This is two years back when my wife tested positive and we missed our cruise.  The funny thing is in Copenhagen, almost nobody was masked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on September 21, 2023, 12:23:25 PM
There were a lot of masks in Seoul, both outside and in the subway. However, that's as much a cultural thing as anything, and has been for long before COVID.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 21, 2023, 12:39:07 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on September 21, 2023, 12:23:25 PM
There were a lot of masks in Seoul, both outside and in the subway. However, that's as much a cultural thing as anything, and has been for long before COVID.
Isn't much of Orient Asia that way too?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on September 21, 2023, 04:47:35 PM
Quote from: utee94 on September 21, 2023, 09:42:21 AM
Saw a person the other day, driving alone in a convertible, with a mask on.  I think some folks just really like the mask.  Maybe they have ugly mouths?
Folks been asking me to mask long before the Wuhan Flu
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 23, 2023, 10:11:35 AM
Oh look, a hit piece on Florida (one of many).

Ron DeSantis—going against CDC guidelines—advises Florida residents under 65 to avoid getting the COVID booster (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/ron-desantis-going-against-cdc-guidelines-advises-florida-residents-under-65-to-avoid-getting-the-covid-booster/ar-AA1h48sT?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=5a474f48eaab4e56a65426611ed80438&ei=13)

In the discussion, hosted by DeSantis, Florida's surgeon general, Dr. Joseph Ladapo, told viewers not to worry about getting infected with COVID and advised people 65 and under to forgo the booster shot.


But... no hit piece on Australian guidelines?

COVID-19 booster vaccine advice | Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care (https://www.health.gov.au/our-work/covid-19-vaccines/getting-your-vaccination/booster-doses)

Booster doses

All adults can get a booster if it’s been 6 months or longer since their last COVID-19 booster or confirmed infection (whichever is most recent). Boosters give extra protection against severe illness from COVID.

The Australian Government has accepted a recommendation about COVID-19 vaccines. All adults aged 75 years and older should receive an extra 2023 COVID-19 vaccine dose (https://www.health.gov.au/news/atagi-update-on-the-covid-19-vaccination-program) if six months have passed since their last dose.

This particularly includes people at higher risk of severe illness, like:

Children and young people aged 5 to 17 years can consider getting a booster dose if:

Your doctor can help you decide if your child should receive a booster.

Booster doses are not recommended at this time for children and adolescents under 18 years of age who do not have any risk factors for severe COVID-19.


All vaccines are approved for use in Australia and continue to give strong protection against serious illness from COVID-19. Omicron-specific bivalent vaccines are preferred for boosters.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on September 23, 2023, 10:18:28 AM
We got our booster yesterday, it really knocked me back (the flu shot was given at the same time).  I went to bed at 8 PM.  I feel fine today.

The very first COVID shot tired me out quite a bit, but I think this one was worse, some, for whatever reason, I guess it means it's working.

Now Bill Gates can track my every move.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 23, 2023, 10:30:14 AM
Well, I'm glad there are no mandates for travel anymore. Hopefully there won't be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2023, 02:52:35 PM
Just had to share this from a NY journalist. Too funny.

(https://i.imgur.com/vL12rbi.png)

Erin Durkin - POLITICO (https://www.politico.com/staff/erin-durkin)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 02, 2023, 04:30:35 PM
Not too shabby down here, but the population is about to go way back up in a Month or so. We'll see.

(https://i.imgur.com/dsxZ5OL.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/M7XQBxC.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on October 02, 2023, 06:15:55 PM
I picked our neighbor up yesterday at the airport and he asked about COVID and I said I hadn't heard much news.  He said "I k now the U of Alabama was shut down because of it."  I couldn't find any news about that.  He's been in Turkey for 6 months.

He was wearing a mask at the airport (as was my wife), I don't consider that a terrible notion (I didn't).  It's crowded with foreigners breathing etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on October 03, 2023, 10:03:00 AM
Pretty sure my son has it right now.  Pretty bad cough, sore throat, and a slight fever.  He'll be staying home for a few days. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 15, 2023, 01:35:33 PM
I've lost track. I think this is the 5th time for me?? Got a hard cough and I'm tired. Taste feels a little off too. Nothing seems to taste right. This never happened to me before.

Anyhow, I tested myself yesterday with a kit that came from the USPS (free) a couple of weeks ago. Why not get them, I figured. Expiration 2-22-23, and from Korea.

Showed negative. Did a PCR and BOOM. Covid. I'm good at getting this thing.

Gonna go get a checkup done at the clinic to make sure everything is OK in the lungs. And then I'll just drink plenty of fluids and get my rest, most likely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 15, 2023, 01:40:33 PM
Bummer.  I wonder why some folks get it so often who are not obviously exposed like say hospital workers.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 15, 2023, 02:01:13 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 23, 2023, 10:11:35 AM
Oh look, a hit piece on Florida (one of many).

Ron DeSantis—going against CDC guidelines—advises Florida residents under 65 to avoid getting the COVID booster (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/ron-desantis-going-against-cdc-guidelines-advises-florida-residents-under-65-to-avoid-getting-the-covid-booster/ar-AA1h48sT?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=5a474f48eaab4e56a65426611ed80438&ei=13)

Well, so does my doctor, and also my wife who until recently was also family practice.  There's probably some exceptions, but in general that is their recommendation.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 15, 2023, 02:09:06 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 15, 2023, 01:35:33 PM
I've lost track. I think this is the 5th time for me?? Got a hard cough and I'm tired. Taste feels a little off too. Nothing seems to taste right. This never happened to me before.

Purely anecdotal, not "scientifically tested" or approved, but I mean that literally in that studies haven't been done, so maybe this is something.  Maybe not.  But there's no downside.  

Try alpha lipoic acid.  When people lose taste/smell it's because the virus is attacking the olfactory nerve.  Alpha lipoic acid is a well known supplement to help against nerve damage and nerve problems.  Every neurologist around here puts their patients on it for neuropathy and things like that.  I take it for the nerve damage in my feet and it has nicely replaced some other meds I was on for a long time in order to make life livable.

My wife lost her taste/smell the first time we got covid a couple years ago, and it stayed gone for a while.  Finally she took a few doses of alpha lipoic acid and it returned pretty quickly.  When we got it again just now she realized her taste/smell was starting to leave again and she began taking it again, this time heading it off at the pass, and she did not lose her senses (lol).  

Obviously zero guarantee that will work for you, but I thought I'd pass it along.  If you try it, probably start with lower doses like the 100mg pills, as many will experience heartburn or indigestion....it is acid, after all.  Maybe have some Pepcid to take along with it.  If one pill goes fine, try a few per day.  I'm on 1200 mg/day, but I think you're supposed to ramp up to that over time.  Wife didn't need nearly that much and it seems to help her with the covid thing.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 15, 2023, 03:08:54 PM
Alpha-lipoic acid Information | Mount Sinai - New York (https://www.mountsinai.org/health-library/supplement/alpha-lipoic-acid#:~:text=One study did find that,the nerves to internal organs.)

(https://i.imgur.com/nLguSOw.png)

That would be a weak acid, no stronger than vinegar, and a lot weaker than your stomach in pH.

Interesting structure, I'd never heard of it before.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 15, 2023, 05:54:25 PM
So, turns out it was not Covid either. These tests are garbage apparently. Clinic did two on my and both negative.

I have Flu A and Flu B.  Gonna dose up now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 15, 2023, 05:55:41 PM
Red Walker!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 15, 2023, 06:27:49 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 15, 2023, 05:54:25 PM
So, turns out it was not Covid either. These tests are garbage apparently. Clinic did two on my and both negative.

I have Flu A and Flu B.  Gonna dose up now.
That’s a load. Get better!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 16, 2023, 06:55:24 AM
We both had the flu in about 2018, in Hawaii, over NYD, it was as sick as either us can remember being in decades.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 16, 2023, 10:44:10 AM
I seem to have largely been immune to the flu over the years.  Can't say that with any scientific certainty, but anecdotally I've been in contact with dozens of people with the flu who were at peak shedding times, and I wouldn't get sick. 

I did get it several years ago, at a time when my immune system was having a particular problem, which made me even more suspicious that had I been normal (for me), I wouldn't have gotten it.  It sucked.  Worse on me than covid by a fair bit.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 16, 2023, 10:45:29 AM
Quote from: MikeDeTiger on November 16, 2023, 10:44:10 AM
Worse on me than covid by a fair bit. 
I'd rather get Covid another 4 times than have thus flu shit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 16, 2023, 10:48:57 AM
Quote from: utee94 on March 13, 2020, 08:30:24 AM
I've got Amazon delivering 16 pallets of toilet paper to my home this afternoon, so I'm good.

As far as sports, if you consider them such, Indycar and NASCAR will both be running this weekend, with no fans in attendance.  I'm actually more of a Forumla1 fan, but they've canceled this weekend's season opening race that was supposed to occur in Australia.  Since the next few races beyond that are in Bahrain, Vietnam, and China, I'm assuming the entire first 20% of the season will be canceled.


Still got about 14 pallets, I reckon?


(https://i.imgur.com/OCe8ldy.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 16, 2023, 11:24:42 AM
Heh, I might have been exaggerating a bit.  We ran out of my supply by the middle of 2022. ;)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 16, 2023, 11:34:25 AM
It's interesting to go back and look at everything "we" did wrong, and what "we" did right.

I hope "we" learned something through all of that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 16, 2023, 11:44:57 AM
I do still have about a half a case of bathroom-dispenser-style paper towels, that I bought in a fit of rage when I couldn't get regular roll-type paper towels because all of the idiot hoarders had wiped out all of the grocery stores plus Amazon.

I use them in the garage, works well enough.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 16, 2023, 11:51:26 AM
We use those when we have parties. Good napkins and good to wipe hands in the bathroom.

A friend of mine managed a hardware store and when you couldn't find paper towels (WTF???) have gave me some. Still have one or two packs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 16, 2023, 02:35:20 PM
The transmission of contagion is often weird, you can be at some gathering and 80% come down with it and the 20% wonder why not.  Or versa vice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on November 17, 2023, 04:48:39 PM
NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. flu season is underway, with at least seven states reporting high levels of illnesses and cases rising in other parts of the country, health officials say.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention posted new flu data on Friday, showing very high activity last week in Louisiana, and high activity in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, New Mexico and South Carolina. It was also high in the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, the U.S. territory where health officials declared an influenza epidemic earlier this month.

“We’re off to the races,” said Dr. William Schaffner, a Vanderbilt University infectious diseases expert


Traditionally, the winter flu season ramps up in December or January. But it took off in October last year, and is making a November entrance this year.

Flu activity was moderate but rising in New York City, Arkansas, California, Maryland, New Jersey, North Carolina, Tennessee and Texas. And while flu activity has been high in Alaska for weeks, the state did not report data last week, so it wasn’t part of the latest count.

Tracking during flu season relies in part on reports of people with flu-like symptoms who go to doctor’s offices or hospitals; many people with the flu are not tested, so their infections aren’t lab-confirmed. COVID-19 and other respiratory viruses can sometimes muddy the picture.

Alicia Budd, who leads the CDC’s flu surveillance team, said several indicators are showing “continued increases” in flu.

There are different kinds of flu viruses, and the version that’s been spreading the most so far this year usually leads to a lesser amount of hospitalizations and deaths in the elderly — the group on whom flu tends to take the largest toll.

So far this fall, the CDC estimates at least 780,000 flu illnesses, at least 8,000 hospitalizations and at least 490 flu-related deaths — including at least one child.

Budd said that it’s not yet clear exactly how effective the current flu vaccines are, but the shots are well-matched to the flu strains that are showing up. In the U.S., about 35% of U.S. adults and 33% of children have been vaccinated against flu, current CDC data indicates. That’s down compared to last year in both categories.

Flu vaccination rates are better than rates for the other two main respiratory viruses — COVID-19 and RSV. About 14% of adults and 5% of children have gotten the currently recommended COVID-19 shot, and about 13.5% of adults 60 and older have gotten one of the RSV shots that became available earlier this year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2023, 09:55:40 AM
Flu is currently making its rounds in my kids' schools.  Hope they avoid it.  Hope I avoid it even more.  Had it last year and it sucked, worst I've ever felt.

We all have this year's flu vaccine so fingers crossed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on November 18, 2023, 10:53:40 AM
Quote from: utee94 on November 18, 2023, 09:55:40 AM
Flu is currently making its rounds in my kids' schools.  Hope they avoid it.  Hope I avoid it even more.  Had it last year and it sucked, worst I've ever felt.

We all have this year's flu vaccine so fingers crossed.
hope its better then the covid vaccine
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2023, 11:46:27 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 18, 2023, 10:53:40 AM
hope its better then the covid vaccine

It failed last year, hoping it doesn't fail this year.  So far so good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on November 18, 2023, 02:41:02 PM
My wife had flu B in August.  Kids got flu around early Oct around here along w a pneumonia wave too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on November 19, 2023, 05:33:10 AM
So far, so good, here, some long plane flights next month though, I often get sick after one.  

I see a COVID article every so often but I don't "sense" anyone is behaving at all differently.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 20, 2023, 12:56:33 PM
Well, the 'vid might have finally caught up with me. Middle child ended up showing some cold-like symptoms on Sunday. We know that he was supposed to go to my ex's family Christmas on Saturday but did not because her sister got COVID (and they were together ~1 week before so could have contracted at the same event). So instead we got the kids Saturday. 

Well, Sunday he coughed and got snotty, and Mon/Tues were a bit rough for him. Then yesterday my wife and I started showing symptoms, and she woke up this morning with a 102 fever, and we're both achy, coughing, etc. 

Oddly my son was tested on three successive days and came up negative, and my wife tested negative last night. But I don't have a lot of faith in these tests. 

My son is feeling better and back at school, and going back to his mom's this afternoon. So my wife and I will probably both test again tomorrow and see if anything comes up positive. 

But 3 1/2 years in, this is now the first time I can say I "probably" have it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 20, 2023, 01:01:06 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 20, 2023, 12:56:33 PM
Well, the 'vid might have finally caught up with me. Middle child ended up showing some cold-like symptoms on Sunday. We know that he was supposed to go to my ex's family Christmas on Saturday but did not because her sister got COVID (and they were together ~1 week before so could have contracted at the same event). So instead we got the kids Saturday.

Well, Sunday he coughed and got snotty, and Mon/Tues were a bit rough for him. Then yesterday my wife and I started showing symptoms, and she woke up this morning with a 102 fever, and we're both achy, coughing, etc.

Oddly my son was tested on three successive days and came up negative, and my wife tested negative last night. But I don't have a lot of faith in these tests.

My son is feeling better and back at school, and going back to his mom's this afternoon. So my wife and I will probably both test again tomorrow and see if anything comes up positive.

But 3 1/2 years in, this is now the first time I can say I "probably" have it.
The free home tests really don't work. If you REALLY want to know, go to CVS and have it done there. Also test for Flu at the same time, because to me, that's what it sounds like you have. Because I just had the same.

Anyway, I'm sure you've had Covid.

TWICE. ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 20, 2023, 01:03:10 PM
Lots of other viruses going around that would have similar symptoms.  Honestly if you feel REALLY bad it's probably the flu and not COVID.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 20, 2023, 01:05:21 PM
Quote from: utee94 on December 20, 2023, 01:03:10 PM
Lots of other viruses going around that would have similar symptoms.  Honestly if you feel REALLY bad it's probably the flu and not COVID.
Yep.

Tamaflu works great for the flu, combined with some Mucinex and rest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 20, 2023, 01:09:13 PM
I don't feel really bad, but my wife feels like she was hit by a truck. However we suspect she's about 12-24 hours ahead of me in symptoms. (She COVID tested the boy Sun night and he blew in her face, so there's that. Special needs kids ain't great about keeping germs to themselves...)

Either way, we're still young(ish) and healthy, so it's gonna be rest, shoveling in meds, and fluids. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 20, 2023, 01:12:08 PM
Just go to the minute clinic at CVS and get tested for both, and maybe RSV too. Those OTC meds really suck for your body, except a plain old expectorant. Those are fine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 21, 2023, 01:19:51 PM
Fighting fevers hard, but we both just retested for COVID and again negative, so it's probably flu. 

Guess I shouldn't have slacked on getting that flu shot this year. 

Which makes some sense... My two other kids had flu shots and they've (as far as I know since yesterday morning) have been just fine. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on December 21, 2023, 07:11:12 PM
my son had a virus... was tested for Covid, RSV and the flu... negative on all...  whatever he had led to pneumonia.   He was down for a few weeks.   Wife and I both have colds and our oldest daughter is fine.. no issues.   

It's just that time of the year.   Growing up I think I was sick every winter.. I know I was after each thanksgiving when extended family got together. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on December 21, 2023, 11:34:00 PM
Sorry to hear that Ent, hope your son is okay and recovering fully.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2023, 07:39:40 AM
Anyone know how often you're supposed to get a pneumonia shot? I had one a while back.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 22, 2023, 09:34:34 AM
didn't know there was such a thing
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2023, 09:56:36 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on December 22, 2023, 09:34:34 AM
didn't know there was such a thing
Yes. I did some digging and people after 50 need only one jab. I guess I'm good and don't need another one. It's NOT an mNRA so I'm fine with it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on December 22, 2023, 10:00:10 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2023, 07:39:40 AM
Anyone know how often you're supposed to get a pneumonia shot? I had one a while back.

Short answer is it depends on your medical history and vax history.  The main factors are how old you are and if you've ever had a pneumonia vax before.  But I'd highly recommend asking your doctor about it....they'll be able to sort through all this bullcrap quickly:  

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/schedules/hcp/imz/adult.html#note-pneumo

Not bullcrap in that it's wrong....bullcrap in the sense that it's a more difficult question than most people would like it to be.  But like most things, healthcare guidelines are not a one-size-fits-all.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on December 22, 2023, 10:09:20 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2023, 09:56:36 AM
Yes. I did some digging and people after 50 need only one jab. I guess I'm good and don't need another one. It's NOT an mNRA so I'm fine with it.

Wife says this is incorrect.  If you read the info at the link I gave, you can see the current recommendations are clear as mud.  Again, can't stress enough, talk to your doctor about it. 

OR, if you know your pharmacist--or sometimes pharmacists are just easier to get to and talk to--they are actually a great resource who can help with this stuff.  They know what they're talking about here. 

ETA:  I think what she meant was, it could be correct, but not necessarily. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2023, 10:12:07 AM
I have to go to CVS today to pick up refills. I will ask at the consultation counter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on December 22, 2023, 11:39:57 AM
my doc has never mentioned it

I'm 61

he knows my history
his father delivered me back in 62
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on December 22, 2023, 12:18:29 PM
Ya and he is still screaming for a mulligan ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2023, 02:52:59 PM
Got the P shot at 50. Should get another one at 60, so a few years. I will confirm this with my doctor too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on December 22, 2023, 03:02:22 PM
Badger,

Your post on vaccines prompted me to make an appointment for my Shingrix booster, that is 2-years past due. I am probably due for other vaccines, but I will only do one at a time, as it is the only way to determine which ones cause issues.

Thanks for the shirt. It was delivered this week.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2023, 03:14:34 PM
You're welcome. I hope you like it.

As for shingles, I've never gotten that shot. Never had chickenpox, which is hard to believe, because it seems like I catch anything and everything.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on December 22, 2023, 03:14:48 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 21, 2023, 01:19:51 PM
Fighting fevers hard, but we both just retested for COVID and again negative, so it's probably flu.

Guess I shouldn't have slacked on getting that flu shot this year.

Which makes some sense... My two other kids had flu shots and they've (as far as I know since yesterday morning) have been just fine.
I have been getting the flu vaccine every year probably for more than 20-years, and I cannot recall when I last had the flu ... it has been a long time.  
Before flu shots were covered by health insurance I would buy flu shots for my secretary, too, in hopes it would help with attendance and overall health.
About 17-years ago I bought a flu vaccine for a secretary. She didn't get sick, but stayed home from work several days to take care of the 4-kids at home who caught the flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on December 22, 2023, 03:16:56 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2023, 03:14:34 PM
You're welcome. I hope you like it.

As for shingles, I've never gotten that shot. Never had chickenpox, which is hard to believe, because it seems like I catch anything and everything.
Do you know what effect it has on your immunity or resistance to shingles that you didn't get chickenpox? Can you still get chickenpox?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on December 22, 2023, 03:33:59 PM
I seem to be immune to flu in its various strains through the years.  Didn't get it even when I discovered I had been up close and personal with people who were at peak shedding times.  I don't know that for a fact, but it fits the data.  Further, the one time I ever did get it was 7 years ago when I was dealing with an issue that lowered my immune system while it was going on.  I didn't know there was such a thing, but now I've been told by people who should know that most viruses are going to get kicked back by a small percentage of the population.  Guess I'm one of the flu ones. 

I seem to catch Covid pretty easily though.  Fortunately, the short term affects are not that bad for me, and that one bout I had with the flu was way worse.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 23, 2023, 08:43:53 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on December 22, 2023, 03:16:56 PM
Do you know what effect it has on your immunity or resistance to shingles that you didn't get chickenpox? Can you still get chickenpox?
I'm told that if you didn't have chickenpox, you do not have the shingles virus in your body.

I'm also told that I could still get chickenpox by being infected from someone who has shingles. And then I could get shingles later.

It's a weird thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 23, 2023, 08:45:17 AM
Quote from: MikeDeTiger on December 22, 2023, 03:33:59 PM
I seem to be immune to flu in its various strains through the years.  Didn't get it even when I discovered I had been up close and personal with people who were at peak shedding times.  I don't know that for a fact, but it fits the data.  Further, the one time I ever did get it was 7 years ago when I was dealing with an issue that lowered my immune system while it was going on.  I didn't know there was such a thing, but now I've been told by people who should know that most viruses are going to get kicked back by a small percentage of the population.  Guess I'm one of the flu ones. 

I seem to catch Covid pretty easily though.  Fortunately, the short term affects are not that bad for me, and that one bout I had with the flu was way worse. 
Exactly. I'll take Covid over the flu any time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 05, 2024, 12:37:55 PM
Nearly 17,000 people may have died from hydroxychloroquine: study | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4389800-hydroxychloroquine-deaths-study/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 05, 2024, 12:54:17 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 05, 2024, 12:37:55 PM
Nearly 17,000 people may have died from hydroxychloroquine: study | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4389800-hydroxychloroquine-deaths-study/)
Just another hit piece on Trump from The Hill


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7534595/
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 05, 2024, 01:53:18 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 05, 2024, 12:37:55 PM
Nearly 17,000 people may have died from hydroxychloroquine: study | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4389800-hydroxychloroquine-deaths-study/)
How many have died from the vaccine?

(hint - we will never know)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 05, 2024, 01:57:32 PM
Any time some report says "may have", I tend to value it little.  Sure, they MAY have, they MAY NOT have.  Folks may die from aspirin (really, it's possible), and anything else we eat except BBQ.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 05, 2024, 02:03:14 PM
Lincoln Riley's BBQ may have killed someone.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 05, 2024, 02:08:55 PM
Looked a lot of the shoe of some mule to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 05, 2024, 02:36:44 PM
As far as I'm aware, there have been no reported deaths from using leeches to treat COVID-19. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 05, 2024, 02:39:58 PM
But a lot of folks MAY HAVE died from leeches.  

(https://i.imgur.com/LBPA1iz.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SuperMario on January 05, 2024, 03:07:07 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 05, 2024, 01:53:18 PM
How many have died from the vaccine?

(hint - we will never know)
I know far too many people that have had medical issues within a year after taking the vaccine and were completely healthy prior to. My brother on that list. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 05, 2024, 03:23:41 PM
I'm on the list. 

Been 29 months since I had the first booster.

No mas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 06, 2024, 08:49:52 AM
People just keep on dying 

No matter what 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 06, 2024, 09:45:00 AM
Taxes too, they keep happening.

We traveled a fair bit here recently, five separate flights, very few people wearing masks, some Asians.  To me, COVID is "over", even if it isn't.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 06, 2024, 10:07:04 AM
To some covid never happened 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 06, 2024, 10:09:25 AM
A lot of STUFF happened because of COVID.  It was annoying at times, and a bit scary, if one listened to anyone out there.

I never tested positive, never got it so far as I know.  I only tested for it 3-4 times though, once at home when I had a cold, and twice before surgery, and twice in Copenhagen to clear travel requirements.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 06, 2024, 10:13:40 AM
The only good thing from covid was the fly overs
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 06, 2024, 10:27:11 AM
I must not have looked up at the right time and missed them 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 06, 2024, 10:37:39 AM
I recall distinctly a few weeks of the "shut down" and then controversy when our governor reopened "too soon" (many said).  We walked about a lot, it was eerie seeing the Connector here with no traffic on it.  Everything was shut down save medical facilities.  The airport was shuttered.  

We had various rules here for use of the elevator and of course wearing masks.

None of that remains.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: SuperMario on January 06, 2024, 10:51:37 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 05, 2024, 03:23:41 PM
I'm on the list.

Been 29 months since I had the first booster.

No mas.
Really sorry to hear that. My wife is in the medical field and the circle around her was strongly advising against it so I luckily avoided it, but my body decided to give me other problems that weren’t exactly minor. Getting older sucks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 06, 2024, 11:07:52 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 06, 2024, 10:27:11 AM
I must not have looked up at the right time and missed them
they dont even know where Iowa is
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 06, 2024, 11:17:26 AM
Worse than a flyover state??
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 06, 2024, 12:19:08 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 06, 2024, 10:09:25 AM
I never tested positive, never got it so far as I know.  I only tested for it 3-4 times though, once at home when I had a cold, and twice before surgery, and twice in Copenhagen to clear travel requirements.
Same here,never got any of the flus or viruses either. I did get a couple of the shots,not because I believed in their effectiveness but because of visiting Friends or Family with compromised health problems of age or other conditions. I got tested about 5-6 X before giving blood though over a year & 1/2 and never tested positive. IMHO the government lined Big Pharma's pockets and wouldn't doubt many had some investments there.Although illegal and a conflict of interest - (Several other news organizations have identified 78 members of Congress who've recently failed to properly report their financial trades as mandated by the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge Act of 2012, also known as the Stock Act) And prior to that Pelosi/Finestein and others dropped their portfolios during the housing market bust and before the covid announcement - i hope they all rot in hell for playing loose with the rules (https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-act-congress-trading-stocks-investing-2022-3)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 06, 2024, 01:07:56 PM
I think I've had every booster and shot, so far.  I presume it's now an annual thing.  I personally am not in the group thinking they are horribly dangerous, or even somewhat dangerous.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 06, 2024, 04:07:28 PM
Me neither but I don't think they're effective and PFizer and Moderna got grilled over in the British Parliament last year over this
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 06, 2024, 04:12:23 PM
I feel the flu is harder on me than Covid

I got the flu shot for that reason
I did not ask about the Covid shot for that reason

my Doc recommended the flu shot
the Doc did not recommend the Covid shot 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 07, 2024, 08:54:48 AM
Why fears over a ‘tripledemic’ are surging | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4392133-fears-tripledemic-surging/)

My doc told me RSV was no worse than a cold.  He didn't recco the vaccine for healthy folks over 65 but would prescrcibe it if I wanted it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 07, 2024, 08:38:57 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 07, 2024, 08:54:48 AM
Why fears over a ‘tripledemic’ are surging | The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4392133-fears-tripledemic-surging/)

My doc told me RSV was no worse than a cold.  He didn't recco the vaccine for healthy folks over 65 but would prescrcibe it if I wanted it.

Fear mongering.  Oughtta be a law against it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 08, 2024, 05:36:21 AM
Much of advertising on TV is "fear mongering" in a sense.  Fear is a powerful motivator.  Vote for X because Y would mean disaster.  Buy our product so you don't look stupid any more.   Our political parties thrive on fear and negativism.  If they actually worked together on compromise, folks wouldn't be as motivated to send them money etc.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 08, 2024, 08:35:46 AM
Quote from: SuperMario on January 05, 2024, 03:07:07 PM
I know far too many people that have had medical issues within a year after taking the vaccine and were completely healthy prior to. My brother on that list.
I volunteer at a food bank and one other volunteer a woman in her 70s had a cousin die the same day after getting vaccinated. She evidently was in decent shape and had no heart issiues prior. The Cleveland Clinic completed a study last December - their own not Big Pharma's that their participants showed a higher rate of infection after the shots than those that didn't recieve any :o

 Now whether those results are still availible or the CDC/Gov't hacks took them down I'm not sure
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 08, 2024, 08:42:05 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on January 06, 2024, 08:49:52 AM
People just keep on dying

No matter what


(https://media3.giphy.com/media/iIj82XyyYM12YT5Hlm/200.gif)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 08, 2024, 08:45:26 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 05, 2024, 02:36:44 PM
As far as I'm aware, there have been no reported deaths from using leeches to treat COVID-19.
What about the leeches?Has PETA been notified? Golderned medical hacks
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on January 08, 2024, 05:52:25 PM
Quote from: utee94 on January 07, 2024, 08:38:57 PM
Fear mongering.  Oughtta be a law against it.
The multi-threat is real. Both the Mrs. and I had influenza followed by COVID. It wiped out our December schedule.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on January 08, 2024, 06:03:18 PM
Quote from: GopherRock on January 08, 2024, 05:52:25 PM
The multi-threat is real. Both the Mrs. and I had influenza followed by COVID. It wiped out our December schedule.
But there's ALWAYS been a "multi-threat."  You can get RSV, and/or Flu A, and/or Flu B, all in the same season.  Having had both COVID and the flu in the past 18 months, I can tell you that getting the flu twice would be a shitload worse in my experience, than Covid plus one of the others.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 08, 2024, 06:49:13 PM
Yeah, I think someone just came up with the word "tripledemic" and HAD to use it. 

Kind of like three-peat. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 09, 2024, 10:07:32 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 08, 2024, 06:03:18 PM
But there's ALWAYS been a "multi-threat."  You can get RSV, and/or Flu A, and/or Flu B, all in the same season.  Having had both COVID and the flu in the past 18 months, I can tell you that getting the flu twice would be a shitload worse in my experience, than Covid plus one of the others.


Yep. I had flu a and flu b at the same time, followed by strep.

Trifecta!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 10, 2024, 11:41:40 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 05, 2024, 02:36:44 PM
As far as I'm aware, there have been no reported deaths from using leeches to treat COVID-19.
(https://i.imgur.com/bD54iCy.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on January 12, 2024, 05:06:06 PM
Strep throat with a separate non-COVD respiratory infection.  Would not recommend
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 12, 2024, 05:08:26 PM
Quote from: ELA on January 12, 2024, 05:06:06 PM
Strep throat with a separate non-COVD respiratory infection.  Would not recommend
Worse than Covid for sure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 17, 2024, 08:18:45 AM
A little bit of new information.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/chinese-lab-mapped-deadly-coronavirus-two-weeks-before-beijing-told-the-world-documents-show-9bca8865?st=pxiiwx8bdq8vj6z&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

[color=var(--headline-font-color)]Chinese Lab Mapped Deadly Coronavirus Two Weeks Before Beijing Told the World, Documents Show[/color]

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MikeDeTiger on January 17, 2024, 10:34:58 AM
Quote from: utee94 on January 07, 2024, 08:38:57 PM
Fear mongering.  Oughtta be a law against it.

Election year.

--------------

RSV is not something people besides the elderly should be worrying about, in general.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Entropy on January 17, 2024, 06:57:40 PM
I am typically pro-vaccine.  That said, I have two issues with vaccines:

1)  the level of mercury is not regulated enough for my liking.  Hence, I pay more for flu shots that require refrigeration than mercury-laced ones...
2) I have little trust in shots that try to replicate a virus and are an artificial vaccine, imo.   We don't know the impacts and I trust dead cells vs made made creations.   Our bodies know how to react to natural events.  

jmo..
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on January 18, 2024, 09:21:49 AM
Cindy got this from the net i guess breaking news .....that i don't follow


In closed-door congressional testimony, former chief White House medical adviser Anthony Fauci (https://search.yahoo.com/search?p=Anthony Fauci) said that federal social distancing guidance during the pandemic was likely not based on any data, and conceded that the lab leak hypothesis of COVID-19's origins isn't a conspiracy theory.
Fauci's comments came during the second of two seven-hour rounds of transcribed, but non-public, testimony before the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic.
The repeated federal recommendation that people keep six feet of distance between themselves and others "sort of just appeared," said Fauci—the former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and former chief medical advisor to President Joe Biden—to lawmakers yesterday, according to a statement (https://oversight.house.gov/release/wenstrup-releases-statement-following-dr-faucis-two-day-testimony/) released today from the committee's Chairman, Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R–Ohio).
The feds' oft-repeated six-foot rule informed numerous state and local pandemic restrictions, including mask mandates and capacity limitations at businesses. Washington, D.C.'s mask mandate (https://coronavirus.dc.gov/maskorder), for instance, required people to wear masks outside when one couldn't reliably keep six feet away from other people.
Fauci also reportedly told lawmakers yesterday that the lab leak hypothesis was not a conspiracy theory.
Early in the pandemic, Fauci and other National Institute of Health (NIH) officials pushed researchers to produce a paper downplaying the possibility COVID-19 had man-made origins.
Last year, the House's Coronavirus subcommittee published emails (https://oversight.house.gov/release/wenstrup-releases-alarming-new-report-on-proximal-origin-authors-nih-suppression-of-the-covid-19-lab-leak-hypothesis/) and other communications showing Fauci's own efforts to downplay the lab leak early in the pandemic and pressure researchers to produce a paper to that effect.
The resulting "Proximal Origins" paper published in March 2020 totally dismissed the lab leak, instead saying that COVID-19 had zoonotic origins. It heavily influenced initial media coverage of the lab leak as a debunked conspiracy. Other communications uncovered by the House subcommittee show the paper's authors candidly saying they were downplaying their assessment of a possible lab leak for political reasons.
Across his two days of testimony, Fauci engaged in "semantics" about the definitions of lab leaks and gain-of-function research—which involves engineering viruses to make them more deadly—to "cover up" his suppression of the lab leak hypothesis and improperly defended his past statements that NIH didn't fund gain-of-function research in Wuhan, China, said Wenstrup.
Sen. Rand Paul (R–Ky.) has called (https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4243100-rand-paul-book-deception-claim-covid-coverup-fauci/) for Fauci to be criminally prosecuted for lying to Congress about NIH's funding of gain-of-function research (https://news.yahoo.com/rand-paul-pursuing-accountability-lab-013421617.html).
"Dr. Fauci's transcribed interview revealed systemic failures in our public health system," said Wenstrup today. "It is clear that dissenting opinions were often not considered or suppressed completely. Should a future pandemic arise, America's response must be guided by scientific facts and conclusive data."
The post Fauci to Congress: 6-Foot Social Distancing Guidance Likely Not Based on Data (https://reason.com/2024/01/10/fauci-to-congress-6-foot-social-distancing-guidance-likely-not-based-on-data/) appeared first on Reason.com (https://reason.com/).


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 18, 2024, 09:30:27 AM
I'm shocked
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 18, 2024, 11:52:27 AM
Not shocked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 21, 2024, 07:32:42 AM
We used to play with mercury.  Droplets went everywhere. It was the elemental variety of course. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 25, 2024, 01:01:04 PM
I tested positive for Covid 19 today

My symptoms are feeling very tired, a cough, lack of appetite

the tired feeling part is the worst

Ive had it for about 4 days so I have a ways to go before Im back to normal

The good news is at least I know whats going on with me
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2024, 01:10:14 PM
Rest, Mucinex/Robitussin and lot of fluids. You'll be fine and your cold will be gone in <7 days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 25, 2024, 01:36:29 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2024, 01:10:14 PM
Rest, Mucinex/Robitussin and lot of fluids. You'll be fine and your cold will be gone in <7 days.
thanks for your concern

Ive never experienced a situation where I have to force myself to eat
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2024, 01:40:54 PM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 25, 2024, 01:36:29 PM
thanks for your concern

Ive never experienced a situation where I have to force myself to eat
Try these. I did them a couple of times when I had the 'vid.


(https://i.imgur.com/ExH2rlV.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/DPcoD8h.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on January 25, 2024, 01:47:03 PM
Been buying ensure for a long time for the wife

I guess Ill give it a try
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 25, 2024, 01:51:44 PM
It's good when you can't eat. Lots of nutrients. The Pedialyte is really good too, for other supplements.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on January 26, 2024, 12:52:31 AM
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 25, 2024, 01:01:04 PM
I tested positive for Covid 19 today

My symptoms are feeling very tired, a cough, lack of appetite

the tired feeling part is the worst

Ive had it for about 4 days so I have a ways to go before Im back to normal

The good news is at least I know whats going on with me
Getting at least minimal exercise is good, too. You don't want to lay down all the time, or you could get worse.

I wore masks around the house to help avoid spreading it to my wife. And the last two times I had it, I had N-95s which are regarded as quite effective. I had it 3x. My wife never got it.

The 1st time I had it I was asymptomatic. The other 2x were mild, but I was tired, particularly the last time. My symptoms didn't last beyond 4-days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on January 26, 2024, 09:00:51 AM
A doctor at camp said he had it earlierand had a very sore throat and almost no other symptoms.  He was out of work a week.  Really nice guy on staff at Texas SW hospital, had a PhD and an MD and an MBA.

Symptoms seem to vary all over the place.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 26, 2024, 10:01:43 AM
I don't want another bout of COVID, but my appetite could use a break
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on January 27, 2024, 03:23:18 PM
WASHINGTON (AP) — When IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel met privately with senators recently, the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee asked for his assessment of a startling report: A whistleblower estimated that 95% of claims now being made by businesses for a COVID-era tax break were fraudulent.

“He looked at his shoes and he basically said, ‘Yeah,’” recalled the lawmaker who posed that question, Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore.

The answer explains why Congress is racing to wind down what is known as the employee retention tax credit. Congress established the program during the coronavirus pandemic as an incentive for businesses to keep workers on the payroll.

Demand for the credit soared as Congress extended the tax break and made it available to more companies. Aggressive marketers dangled the prospect of enormous refunds to business owners if they would just apply. As a result, what was expected to cost the federal government $55 billion has instead ballooned to nearly five times that amount as of July. Meanwhile, new claims are still pouring into the IRS each week, ensuring a growing price tag that lawmakers are anxious to cap.

Lawmakers across the political spectrum who rarely agree on little else — from liberal Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., to conservative Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis. — agree it’s time to close down the program.

“I don’t have the exact number, but it’s like almost universal fraud in the program. It should be ended,” Johnson said. “I don’t see how anybody could support it.”

Warren added: “The standards were too loose and the oversight was too thin.”

The Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that winding down the program more quickly and increasing penalties for those companies promoting improper claims would generate about $79 billion over 10 years.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 06, 2024, 11:28:59 AM
Well, it finally got me. Was feeling fatigued last Wednesday. Thought it was that I'd done a 90-minute Peloton ride the day before, but seemed excessive even for that. Thursday/Friday had some cold symptoms. Saturday morning was a dry hacking cough, but managed it with cold meds. By Saturday evening was mostly feeling good and Sunday was even better. Got back to my normal workout routine yesterday with no issues, so I'd consider myself recovered. 

My wife started feeling it Sunday night, so last night she tested. Came up positive. I knew that meant that I must have had it, but then she swabbed me and I had a VERY faint positive line on a test too, so that's truly confirmed. 

So now I've had it. Once. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 06, 2024, 11:39:32 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 06, 2024, 11:28:59 AM
Well, it finally got me. Was feeling fatigued last Wednesday. Thought it was that I'd done a 90-minute Peloton ride the day before, but seemed excessive even for that. Thursday/Friday had some cold symptoms. Saturday morning was a dry hacking cough, but managed it with cold meds. By Saturday evening was mostly feeling good and Sunday was even better. Got back to my normal workout routine yesterday with no issues, so I'd consider myself recovered.

My wife started feeling it Sunday night, so last night she tested. Came up positive. I knew that meant that I must have had it, but then she swabbed me and I had a VERY faint positive line on a test too, so that's truly confirmed.

So now I've had it. Once.

As far as you know. Sometimes a cold has no symptoms for people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on February 07, 2024, 12:16:02 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 06, 2024, 11:28:59 AM
Well, it finally got me. Was feeling fatigued last Wednesday. Thought it was that I'd done a 90-minute Peloton ride the day before, but seemed excessive even for that. Thursday/Friday had some cold symptoms. Saturday morning was a dry hacking cough, but managed it with cold meds. By Saturday evening was mostly feeling good and Sunday was even better. Got back to my normal workout routine yesterday with no issues, so I'd consider myself recovered.

My wife started feeling it Sunday night, so last night she tested. Came up positive. I knew that meant that I must have had it, but then she swabbed me and I had a VERY faint positive line on a test too, so that's truly confirmed.

So now I've had it. Once.
Hopefully your little woman is in recovery now, too. I see so few people up close, and had it 3x. The impact was minor on me, but I was personally acquainted with 13 people who died from it. I haven't had it in over one-year. So I am overdue, once again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 07, 2024, 07:48:47 AM
I had it 5 times. Really not sure if I can even get it again, but if I did, I'm not concerned. The flu is far worse.

We will have to live with the Covid threat for the rest of our lives.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 07, 2024, 10:46:28 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on February 07, 2024, 12:16:02 AM
Hopefully your little woman is in recovery now, too. I see so few people up close, and had it 3x. The impact was minor on me, but I was personally acquainted with 13 people who died from it. I haven't had it in over one-year. So I am overdue, once again.
Yeah, she's had it pretty mild as well. Probably another day or two before she's be considered in recovery, but it's presenting as typical cold symptoms and nothing more.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on February 07, 2024, 12:52:17 PM
It’s been a long time since I’ve heard of anybody dying from it. If I recall , the last person I know of locally was late 2021. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 07, 2024, 12:55:55 PM
I still don't know anyone who died from/with Covid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 07, 2024, 01:15:39 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 07, 2024, 12:55:55 PM
I still don't know anyone who died from/with Covid.
Same here.  I don't even know anyone whose symptoms were serious enough to go to the hospital for it.  It's really, really strange how peoples' personal experiences in this matter can differ so greatly.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 07, 2024, 01:20:44 PM
I know one person (former ND neighbor) who was hospitalized. They had him on a ventilator for 3 weeks and his lungs crystalized. He'll never be the same. He got at it a party on December 31, 2020. His wife never got it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on February 07, 2024, 02:10:57 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 07, 2024, 01:20:44 PM
I know one person (former ND neighbor) who was hospitalized. They had him on a ventilator for 3 weeks and his lungs crystalized. He'll never be the same. He got at it a party on December 31, 2020. His wife never got it.
Ugh. That’s awful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 07, 2024, 02:15:24 PM
I think he was foolish to go to a party that early in the pandemic when "we" didn't know much about it or had successful treatments, but choices.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 07, 2024, 02:21:14 PM
By Dec 31, 2020 I was pretty much back to pre-pandemic normal with respect to socializing.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 07, 2024, 02:31:49 PM
We were too - mostly outside. We had some inside, but not a lot of people.

This guy was at an indoor party in Chicago with 200 people.

I miss travel in those days. Round trip RSW/ORD for $50!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 07, 2024, 02:45:07 PM
Yeah that's fair.  I don't typically go to indoor parties with 200 people for any reason, anyway.

I guess the closest we ever get is when we go to clubs for live music, and I definitely wasn't doing any of those until sometime in spring of 2021.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 07, 2024, 03:20:56 PM
Yeah, by summer 2021 it was back to normal for us too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on February 08, 2024, 01:25:27 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 07, 2024, 01:20:44 PM
I know one person (former ND neighbor) who was hospitalized. They had him on a ventilator for 3 weeks and his lungs crystalized. He'll never be the same. He got at it a party on December 31, 2020. His wife never got it.
One of my high school classmates was the 1st person in Iowa to die from COVID-19.

I have had clients die from it. I met one client in my office about 20-days before I heard his name on the obituaries on our local small town radio station circa Nov. 17 at 7:45 a.m. when I was getting dressed for work. He died Nov. 15, 2020. He was 70 and just seemed as healthy as could be.

We were very friendly. In March 2020 while discussing COVID, he said, "Mark, we will be protected in Delaware County from COVID-19 because we are in a rural area." I thought he was spewing nonsense because at that time, despite the fact there were no cases here, refrigerated trucks were storing bodies that couldn't be processed in New York City. We had no deaths or reported cases here in March, April, May, and June 2020. I started wondering if he was correct, even though I knew we get flu here like everyone else.

At 8:30 a.m. Nov. 17, 2020 I called his spouse to offer my condolences, and ask what happened since he was perfectly healthy 2-weeks earlier. I learned he died from COVID-19. He did have diabetes, which I did not know previously. He was slightly overweight but he was very active. He had retired within the year from farming. She said he was going to livestock auctions for entertainment. They attended a Trump rally in Des Moines October 14, 2020. He had COVID-19 2-weeks. We don't know where he got it, at a livestock auction or Trump rally. He refused a ventilator.

Next time his spouse came into my office she had a mask on. She didn't always agree with him. She tugged on her mask and said, "This is my best friend." She didn't get COVID-19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 13, 2024, 07:35:37 AM
From my NYT feed this am...  (WARNING!!! Reading a word from the NYT may make you a liberal!!!).

Much of the world has decided that most young children do not need to receive Covid booster shots. It’s true in Britain, France, Japan and Australia.
Some countries, like India, have gone further. They say that otherwise healthy children do not need even an initial Covid vaccination. In Germany, public health experts don’t recommend vaccines for any children, including teenagers, unless they have a medical condition.
Scientists in these countries understand that Covid vaccines are highly effective. But the experts have concluded that the benefits for children often fail to outweigh the costs.
The benefits are modest because children are extremely unlikely (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/S4Z-Gk34N7eWqVEB8F6Cfw~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnrdwqP0ToaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8xMi9icmllZmluZy9jb3ZpZC1hZ2Utcmlzay1pbmZlY3Rpb24tdmFjY2luZS5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyNDAyMTMmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTE1MDM4Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9MTUzMzY4OTEwJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTU4MDQ5JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0QgpluipXy2VgSMPAUhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) to become seriously ill from Covid and are less likely to transmit the virus than an adult is. The costs include the financial price of mass vaccination, the possibility that a shot’s side effects will make a child sick enough to miss school, the tiny chance of more serious side effects and the inherent uncertainty about long-term effects.
The U.S. — as American readers have probably realized by this point in the newsletter — is a global outlier. The C.D.C. urges booster shots for all children (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/lcPNIBY-QVuJxd2RrPyYBg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnrdwqP0TaaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8wOS8wMS9icmllZmluZy9jb3ZpZC1mbHUtdmFjY2luZXMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjQwMjEzJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExNTAzOCZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTE1MzM2ODkxMCZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1ODA0OSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9OGU1ZDJhMmI1ZTQ4YTY5NjU2MTkyY2MzYWYwYTkwMGNXA255dEIKZboqV8tlYEjDwFIRamNkb29tOUBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) six months and older.
Yet the recommendation has failed to accomplish much. Instead, most American parents have chosen to overrule the C.D.C. Only about 40 percent of children under 12 have been vaccinated against Covid, and only about 5 percent (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/OXBrDFmfBSthT2JYpCkQwA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnrdwqP0TwaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuY2RjLmdvdi92YWNjaW5lcy9pbXotbWFuYWdlcnMvY292ZXJhZ2UvY292aWR2YXh2aWV3L2ludGVyYWN0aXZlL2NoaWxkcmVuLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDI0MDIxMyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTUwMzgmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xNTMzNjg5MTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTgwNDkmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPThlNWQyYTJiNWU0OGE2OTY1NjE5MmNjM2FmMGE5MDBjVwNueXRCCmW6KlfLZWBIw8BSEWpjZG9vbTlAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) are up to date on their boosters.
This situation makes for a case study of the shortcomings (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/mQDiQy-bKG-DAg41Zg3ccg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnrdwqP0TfaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8wNS8zMS9icmllZmluZy9tYXNrcy1tYW5kYXRlcy11cy1jb3ZpZC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyNDAyMTMmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTE1MDM4Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9MTUzMzY4OTEwJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTU4MDQ5JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD04ZTVkMmEyYjVlNDhhNjk2NTYxOTJjYzNhZjBhOTAwY1cDbnl0QgpluipXy2VgSMPAUhFqY2Rvb205QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) in U.S. Covid policy: A strict approach to a nuanced issue has backfired, fostering skepticism of scientific expertise while doing little to improve public health. Dr. Francis Collins, the retired head of the National Institutes of Health, acknowledged the larger problem last year when he said (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/X0OfV_gyRigrcKaj-Or3Dg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnrdwqP4RDAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm1lZGlhaXRlLmNvbS9uZXdzL2Zvcm1lci1uYXRpb25hbC1pbnN0aXR1dGVzLW9mLWhlYWx0aC1kaXJlY3Rvci1hZG1pdHMtdG8tbmFycm93LXJlYWxseS11bmZvcnR1bmF0ZS1wYW5kZW1pYy1taW5kc2V0LXdlLXdlcmVudC10aGlua2luZy1hYm91dC1jb2xsYXRlcmFsLWRhbWFnZS8_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDI0MDIxMyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTUwMzgmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xNTMzNjg5MTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTgwNDkmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPThlNWQyYTJiNWU0OGE2OTY1NjE5MmNjM2FmMGE5MDBjVwNueXRCCmW6KlfLZWBIw8BSEWpjZG9vbTlAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) that experts erred during the pandemic by taking a “very narrow view of what the right decision is.”
Monthslong school closures that harmed student learning were one example. Extended mask mandates that many people ignored were another. A continuing C.D.C. recommendation that conflicts with international practice — and that most Americans have dismissed — has become yet another.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 13, 2024, 07:37:14 AM
Dr. Sandro Galea, the dean of the Boston University School of Public Health, recently published a book making a detailed version of this argument. The book is titled, “Within Reason.” (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/z65bAOguLTUBFyq2LNXd6g~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnrdwqP0TbaHR0cHM6Ly9wcmVzcy51Y2hpY2Fnby5lZHUvdWNwL2Jvb2tzL2Jvb2svY2hpY2Fnby9XL2JvMjA1Mzk0MjY4Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDI0MDIxMyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTUwMzgmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD0xNTMzNjg5MTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTgwNDkmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPThlNWQyYTJiNWU0OGE2OTY1NjE5MmNjM2FmMGE5MDBjVwNueXRCCmW6KlfLZWBIw8BSEWpjZG9vbTlAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) During the pandemic, as Galea told me, health experts sometimes adopted “an illiberal ideology.” This ideology imagined people as robots who existed merely to minimize the chances of contracting a virus.
In reality, as Galea pointed out, society regularly decides that some amount of additional safety isn’t worth it. Car drivers and passengers would be safer if they wore helmets, for instance, but who wears a helmet in a car?
In the case of Covid, there are indeed benefits to giving booster shots to children. Some of the benefits are probably greater for American children, too. They are more likely to be obese or lack health insurance than children elsewhere. “Even though kids are at a lower risk, they are not at zero risk,” Dr. Nirav Shah, the C.D.C.’s principal deputy director, told me when defending the booster recommendation.
But there are also downsides to urging health measures that most people oppose, Galea notes. Only when the benefits of doing so are large (as was the case with perceptions of smoking in the 20th century) should experts try to change people’s minds.
The scientific data — and the expert consensus in other countries — make it hard to argue that the benefits of boosting children are large. “I don’t think in the U.S.A. they have got the risk-benefit equation correct for children,” Dr. Peter Collignon of the Australian National University told me.
(C.D.C. data shows that the children at highest Covid risk are newborns, who aren’t eligible for vaccines even in the U.S. They can instead benefit from a mother’s prenatal vaccination.)
The value of candor
Galea believes that the biggest drawback to the U.S. booster policy may be its effect on the C.D.C.’s credibility. When people who are already skeptical of expert advice, as many Americans are, see the C.D.C. insisting on a vaccine with a marginal benefit, they have more reason to question other C.D.C. guidance — such as the urgent importance of childhood vaccines against measles and diphtheria.
“There is a real cost to our not being honest,” Galea said.
When I’ve asked public health experts off the record what they are doing with their own children, they tend to be honest. Almost all have vaccinated their children, for the sake of both those children and other people. At the same time, some experts told me that they had not boosted their children.
Why? The benefits seem small, for everybody. The costs — like a child’s fear of needles or a missed day of school from side effects — also seem small. With such a close call, reasonable parents will make different decisions, and that’s OK.
Maybe the C.D.C. would have a bigger impact if it conveyed a similarly candid message.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 13, 2024, 08:25:28 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 13, 2024, 07:37:14 AM
“There is a real cost to our not being honest,” Galea said.
Maybe the C.D.C. would have a bigger impact if it conveyed a similarly candid message.


maybe
maybe not
some folks are just skeptical 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 13, 2024, 08:31:31 AM
I think a lot of the scepticism comes from poor messenging and lack of openness and logic.  And that, I think, became political, we saw extremes in messenging from vaccinate EvERYBODY to NOBODY.

Folks got polarized based on their politics.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 13, 2024, 11:13:05 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 13, 2024, 08:31:31 AM
I think a lot of the scepticism comes from poor messenging and lack of openness and logic.  And that, I think, became political, we saw extremes in messenging from vaccinate EvERYBODY to NOBODY.

Folks got polarized based on their politics.
Some, not all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 13, 2024, 11:16:24 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 13, 2024, 08:31:31 AM
I think a lot of the scepticism comes from poor messenging and lack of openness and logic.  And that, I think, became political, we saw extremes in messenging from vaccinate EvERYBODY to NOBODY.

Folks got polarized based on their politics.

I witnessed a certain group of people consistently banging on the "FoLLoW tHe ScIEnCe!!!" gong without any clue as to what that actually meant.  To the point that they disparaged, dismissed, and villainized any who disagreed with them-- or even any who stopped to question whether or not ALL of "the science" was being considered-- as being immoral and inhuman.  

Which only served to further polarize the issue.

In the current climate, there appears to be zero allowance for tolerance.  And that's a major problem.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 13, 2024, 11:27:43 AM
Quote from: utee94 on February 13, 2024, 11:16:24 AM
I witnessed a certain group of people consistently banging on the "FoLLoW tHe ScIEnCe!!!" gong without any clue as to what that actually meant.  To the point that they disparaged, dismissed, and villainized any who disagreed with them-- or even any who stopped to question whether or not ALL of "the science" was being considered-- as being immoral and inhuman. 

Which only served to further polarize the issue.

In the current climate, there appears to be zero allowance for tolerance.  And that's a major problem. 

That's on the CDC, FDA, and Dr. Fauci. We have been lied to, coerced and deceived through this whole ordeal.

It's even coming out now that some treatments that were deemed "bad" or crazy can actually work. Why were they deemed bad, and who deemed them bad? We all know the answer to this.

What else would you expect?
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on February 13, 2024, 11:32:18 AM
The disinformation was certainly the fault of those parties mentioned, but the desire to "dunk on" anyone who plays for the other political team, is what I'm talking about.

And that's universal, it comes from members of both "teams" and it's getting worse every year.  Just complete identity politics, absolute immersion in the cult of personality that comes from believing so much in the superiority of your team, that anyone who doesn't agree with you is not only stupid and wrong, but also evil.

I don't believe in either one of these teams, I've grown to loathe them both, and it saddens me watching people I would otherwise deem intelligent, become corrupted and foolish as they continually double down on their identity politics.

It's sad and I'm not sure there's a way out of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 13, 2024, 11:34:17 AM
That last part is the worst part. And I agree.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 13, 2024, 11:43:12 AM
Quote from: utee94 on February 13, 2024, 11:16:24 AM
I witnessed a certain group of people consistently banging on the "FoLLoW tHe ScIEnCe!!!"
This drives me crazy as I usually hear this from folks with a very very scanty background in "science" or even understanding of what it is.

I've been exposed to enough about "science" to understand my background is also very specialized and scant though I do make an effort to keep up a bit in some areas.  Take climate science, to me, the actual science is very very very complex.  I don't think I have nearly the background to assess it fairly, I can read comments by some who do have some background, and appear not to be politically motivated.  But those comments are hardly a consensus.

It's easier to think "Well, my TEAM says X, so I believe X".

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 13, 2024, 12:57:40 PM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 13, 2024, 11:27:43 AM
That's on the CDC, FDA, and Dr. Fauci. We have been lied to, coerced and deceived through this whole ordeal.
it's also on Pelosi, Trump, and all the other political shit heads
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 13, 2024, 01:01:43 PM
To me the bigger problem is not necessarily that some of this stuff is too complex for a layman to actually get a handle on it...

...it's that most are too lazy to even try and just parrot what their "team" says because it's a lot less effort than thinking for themselves. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 13, 2024, 01:18:59 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 13, 2024, 01:01:43 PM
To me the bigger problem is not necessarily that some of this stuff is too complex for a layman to actually get a handle on it...

...it's that most are too lazy to even try and just parrot what their "team" says because it's a lot less effort than thinking for themselves.
Agreed, but not here.

We're all (I think) smart enough to do our own research, talk to actual experts, and make decisions on our own.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MarqHusker on February 13, 2024, 01:45:03 PM
Let's not forget , all the 'responsible adults in the room'   made it a priority to savage and attempt to discredit people like Jay Battacharya among others.    It was much worse than rooting for one team.  Attempts to silence and ruin people.

The self sabotage done by the Govt is amongst the worst residues of CV-19.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 13, 2024, 01:55:31 PM
Yep.

Great Barrington Declaration (gbdeclaration.org) (https://gbdeclaration.org/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 13, 2024, 01:57:26 PM
The climate change issue is too complex for me.  And I know early in COVID, I didn't understand much of anything either.

I don't much about history ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 20, 2024, 11:19:25 AM
Largest-ever COVID vaccine study links shot to small increase in heart and brain conditions | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/health/largest-ever-covid-vaccine-study-links-shot-small-increase-heart-brain-conditions)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 20, 2024, 11:20:27 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 13, 2020, 06:11:44 AM
I hesitate to "believe" anything about this.  The latency period is very concerning, I think.  It is possible this is just something that becomes "routine" over time.  It may be seasonal (or not).  We may find in a couple weeks it was not as bad as feared.  Maybe we all contract it and develop immunity.  Maybe this. maybe that.

I can appreciate folks wanting to be careful.  We had fairly recently zika scares and swine flu and whatever else and "survived".  My advice is to buy any toilet paper you can find anywhere.  (JK).

Maybe this, maybe that.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: MrNubbz on February 20, 2024, 12:05:43 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 20, 2024, 11:19:25 AM
Largest-ever COVID vaccine study links shot to small increase in heart and brain conditions | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/health/largest-ever-covid-vaccine-study-links-shot-small-increase-heart-brain-conditions)
A woman at the food bank where I volunteer had an cousin die at 64 the same day she got vaxxed. Another vol had a family member taken to the ER the same day as the stick so coincidence or some traction to that. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 20, 2024, 01:19:36 PM
I read about a lady who got vaxxed and died in a motorcycle accident on the way home.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Gigem on February 20, 2024, 03:09:15 PM
Quote from: utee94 on February 07, 2024, 01:15:39 PM
Same here.  I don't even know anyone whose symptoms were serious enough to go to the hospital for it.  It's really, really strange how peoples' personal experiences in this matter can differ so greatly.
The main thing I took from it is that maybe I happen to know a lot more people than everybody else.  Statistically speaking of course.  That and since I lost my dad to COVID I became a little more nosey than in the past and started asking around about people who died.  I think it should have been mandatory to put in the obituary if somebody died with COVID or not, so that the average person would know who for certain who died with COVID.  Maybe not mandatory, but it should have been encouraged.  My mom wouldn't let me put it on my dad's obit ( I wrote it) but if it had been up to me I would have simply as a warning that COVID was not all make believe.  

I'd like to talk to some of the health professionals who were in COVID wards tell their side.  There has been some stuff trickle out but not really much.  
I kept a list of all the people who I knew or knew of that died from COVID, got up to about 18 as I recall including my dad and my uncle.  Most were older and in poor health, some were young (49 was the youngest).  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 20, 2024, 05:55:12 PM
Quote from: Gigem on February 20, 2024, 03:09:15 PM
The main thing I took from it is that maybe I happen to know a lot more people than everybody else.  Statistically speaking of course.
Yeah, and I don't know what you do, but having heard you mention having clients coming into your office on a regular basis and from context it sounds like a "professional services" type of job--law, finance, accounting, etc... 

If so, you might see a lot more people on any given day than I do. And for many of those people depending on what you do, the ones needing some of those services may be older and more likely to be in at-risk groups. I.e. if you're in retirement planning, the bulk of people you'll see regularly are those who are near retired or already retired, right?

I go into my office once a week (WFH otherwise), and sit in my office and don't talk to anyone unless they come to my door lol. And most of the people there skew young-ish as it's a tech company; not to say it's not a wide range, but the younger ones outnumber the 55+ crowd by a wide margin. Other than that the only people I talk to regularly are my wife, my kids, and the fellow dog owners I see in the neighborhood and talk to when we're both walking dogs. And I don't do the Facebook thing, so I don't even really know what's going on with all those long-lost people from HS/college that I barely cared about then and have mostly forgotten now. 

I suspect we're outliers on the opposite ends of the "interacting with people" spectrum so you have a wider group to be exposed to. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 21, 2024, 11:39:44 AM
Woke up today feeling draggy and with a sore throat.  Thought uh oh.  My wife found our COVID tests, and I ran one which came up negative.  That didn't cure my sore throat at all though.

We have an "event" tonight that I will beg out of.  I wasn't all that thrilled about it anyway.

Tis a pity, it's a nice sunny day here, 52°F.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 21, 2024, 11:51:31 AM
Those tests are not very good based on my experience.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 21, 2024, 11:55:31 AM
I have no way of knowing as I won't get tested otherwise.  I've never tested positive, I've really not been sick much since 2020.  I've taken to washing my hands each time I return to the condo, that could be helping.  We're still traveling rather extensively of course.

I guess I have the start of a cold.  If I tested positive for COVID, would I act any differently?  Probably some.  My nose is clear and I'm breathing fine, so far.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 21, 2024, 12:07:10 PM
Well, it's a cold no matter what. Covid is a cold. Some are bad, some are without symptoms, or minimal symptoms.

I tell my employees that if they are sick, stay home. If you can get out of something you don't want to do? 

BONUS!!

The CDC has lifted its isolation recommendation, I heard.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 21, 2024, 12:14:21 PM
We get invited to the symphony practice sessions a few times a year.  We went to one, it was interesting for about 5 minutes.  My wife wants to attend one tonight, which at least has the benefit of an open bar beforehand.  She did say we could leave at half time, if there is one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on February 23, 2024, 12:45:47 AM
Quote from: Gigem on February 20, 2024, 03:09:15 PM
The main thing I took from it is that maybe I happen to know a lot more people than everybody else.  Statistically speaking of course.  That and since I lost my dad to COVID I became a little more nosey than in the past and started asking around about people who died.  I think it should have been mandatory to put in the obituary if somebody died with COVID or not, so that the average person would know who for certain who died with COVID.  Maybe not mandatory, but it should have been encouraged.  My mom wouldn't let me put it on my dad's obit ( I wrote it) but if it had been up to me I would have simply as a warning that COVID was not all make believe. 

I'd like to talk to some of the health professionals who were in COVID wards tell their side.  There has been some stuff trickle out but not really much. 
I kept a list of all the people who I knew or knew of that died from COVID, got up to about 18 as I recall including my dad and my uncle.  Most were older and in poor health, some were young (49 was the youngest). 
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 20, 2024, 05:55:12 PM

Yeah, and I don't know what you do, but having heard you mention having clients coming into your office on a regular basis and from context it sounds like a "professional services" type of job--law, finance, accounting, etc...

If so, you might see a lot more people on any given day than I do.

I suspect we're outliers on the opposite ends of the "interacting with people" spectrum so you have a wider group to be exposed to.
I don't know a lot of people. I am a lawyer, and sole practitioner in small town Iowa. After COVID-19 I posted a sign on my front door, "By appointment only." It made me much more efficient because in a small town everyone just drops in and talks and interrupts the flow of work. Most days I don't see a client in my office. I get most information I need over the phone.
I was acquainted with 12-13 people who died from COVID-19 despite the fact I really don't associate with many people. Many of them were people I was acquainted with, years ago.
The first person in the State of Iowa who died from it was in my high school class, and grew up 3-4 blocks away. Two former clients in their 50s died from it. A current client early 70s who stopped in my office 3-weeks b-4 his death entirely healthy died from it. The others were elderly, but they otherwise would have lived out their natural lives.
All said, I haven't known anyone in over 1-year who died from COVID-19. I haven't worn a mask since I flew down to Tucson for my dad's funeral in June 2023, and before that I wore a mask to say goodbye to dad in March/April 2023 because he was stricken with leukemia and treating for it. 
I think wearing an N-95 mask in crowded places regardless whether it is for protection from COVID-19, or something else, is  prudent.
In 1991, 2,500 people went through the line for my mother-in-law's wake after she died in a motor vehicle accident. A lot of us were sick afterward. Twenty-Two years later my father-in-law died, and 1,200 came through the line for him. Many of us were sick afterward. Probably from hand touching; maybe from breathing everyone's air. We didn't have or think about masks then. We should think more about the elements of close contact that spread illness. Stay home when you are sick is Job #1.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 23, 2024, 07:47:11 AM
I don't know anyone personally who died of COVID.  I know two folks who were in intensive care.  

Neither of us have been very sick with COVID, I never tested positive.  If I had it, it was unnoticeable.  I thought maybe I had it earlier this week, but I'm fine now.

I've heard an entire range of symptoms from folks who had it, unlike a regular cold that usually starts with a sore throat and progresses to conjestion and some coughing and then getting better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 29, 2024, 08:11:42 AM
Where Did Covid Come From? - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/where-did-covid-come-from-new-evidence-lab-leak-hypothesis-78be1c39?mod=e2fb&fbclid=IwAR2vC56bXvtoRJZZWzZpUsJPYXWKrPO8ru5pl87J7F15WeULN0IvNIv-G2o)

In the four years since the SARS-CoV-2 virus was unleashed on the world, data have steadily accumulated supporting the hypothesis that it emerged from a laboratory. The latest information, released last month, makes a formidable case that the virus is the product of laboratory synthesis, not of nature.
This startling fact will probably take some time to sink into the national consciousness, given the mainstream media’s sustained inability to report the issue objectively. Editors have failed to think beyond the extreme politicization that requires liberals to oppose the lab-leak hypothesis. Science journalists are too beholden to their sources to suspect that virologists would lie to them about the extent of their profession’s responsibility for a catastrophic pandemic.
Here are some salient facts that haven’t been clearly reported to readers of the mainstream press:
In March 2018 a team of American and Chinese virologists applied to the Pentagon’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, known as Darpa, seeking a $14 million grant to manipulate viruses related to SARS-CoV-1, the bat virus that caused a minor epidemic in 2002. Their goal was to identify bat viruses in Asia with the highest potential for jumping to people and to immunize bats so they wouldn’t infect soldiers in the region.
The proposal for Project DEFUSE (https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21066966-defuse-proposal) specified that the viruses’ infectivity would be enhanced by inserting into them a genetic element known as a furin cleavage site. Depending on the starting viruses, this protocol could have produced SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, which has a distinctive furin cleavage site.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 29, 2024, 08:12:22 AM
In 2022 three biologists, Valentin Bruttel, Alex Washburne and Antonius VanDongen, guessed that if SARS-CoV-2 had been generated in a lab by a standard method, it would have been assembled from six sections of lab-synthesized DNA with the help of a biological agent called BsmBI. On analyzing the virus’s structure (https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.10.18.512756v1.full.pdf), they found evidence for the seams between sections and other distinctive marks of the assembly process.
Their paper was derided as “kindergarten molecular biology” by the virologists who are favorites of the mainstream press for their opposition to the lab-leak hypothesis. But a batch of documents (https://usrtk.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/USGS-DEFUSE-2021-006245-Combined-Records_Redacted.pdf) reveal new details about the DEFUSE proposal and confirm that the three authors were on target. Emily Kopp of U.S. Right to Know obtained the documents through a Freedom of Information Act request from the Interior Department, having noticed that a researcher at the U.S. Geological Survey was a member of the DEFUSE team.

The new documents, which are background planning papers and drafts for the DEFUSE proposal, call for assembling SARS-like viruses from six sections of DNA, and include a cost estimate for purchase of the BsmBI restriction enzyme—exactly as the three authors had inferred. This clearly strengthens, perhaps conclusively, their contention that the virus is synthetic. Richard H. Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University, says it raises “to the level of a smoking gun” the genetic evidence that the virus was manufactured.
Other strong indicators of the virus’s laboratory birth include the furin cleavage site, possessed by none of the other more than 1,500 members of its viral family with which in nature it might swap genetic material. The codons—“words” used by the genetic code to specify the units of proteins—that define the cleavage site are those preferred by humans, not coronaviruses, pointing to their likely origin in a lab kit. And whereas most viruses require repeated tries to switch from an animal host to people, SARS-CoV-2 infected humans out of the box, as if it had been preadapted while growing in the humanized mice called for in the DEFUSE protocol.
The authors of the proposal were a team led by Peter Daszak of the EcoHealth Alliance of New York, Shi Zhengli of the Wuhan Institute of Virology and Ralph Baric of the University of North Carolina. Although Mr. Baric is the leading expert on the technology, Mr. Daszak intended for much or most of the work to be done in Ms. Shi’s laboratory, despite giving a different impression to Darpa. He writes in the recently discovered documents that “I do want to stress the US side of this proposal so that DARPA are comfortable with our team. Once we get the funds, we can then allocate who does what exact work, and I believe that a lot of these assays can be done in Wuhan.”
Ms. Shi did most of her work with SARS-type viruses in the minimal-containment condition known as BSL2, whereas Mr. Baric, who regarded the viruses as seriously dangerous, worked in a more secure lab known as BSL3. Mr. Daszak noted that the lower-security labs would save money: “The BSL-2 nature of work on SARSr-CoVs makes our system highly cost-effective relative to other bat-virus systems.” Mr. Baric replied to this comment that the viruses might be grown under BSL2 safety conditions in China, but “US researchers will likely freak out.”
Mr. Daszak’s EcoHealth Alliance last year asserted that the DEFUSE project was never implemented: “The proposal was not funded and the work was never done, therefore it cannot have played a role in the origin of COVID-19.” But science is a competitive business. After Darpa turned down the DEFUSE proposal in February 2019, the researchers in Wuhan might have secured Chinese government funding and gone ahead by themselves. Viruses made according to the DEFUSE protocol could have been available by the time Covid-19 broke out, sometime between August and November 2019. This would account for the otherwise unexplained timing of the pandemic along with its place of origin. (Mr. Daszak, Mr. Baric and Ms. Shi didn’t respond to emails seeking comment. Chinese officials have demanded that the U.S. “stop defaming China” by raising the possibility of a lab leak.)


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 29, 2024, 09:19:07 AM
From day 1 I said it was engineered, and purposely released by the CCP.

They got what they wanted out of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 29, 2024, 09:37:42 AM
I'm still unconvinced we'll ever know with much certainty its origins.  The evidence for any theory is pretty sparse.

Even if it was modified by humans, which is very possible, there is still the question as to whether it was an accidental or intentional release with purpose.  Is struggle with the logic of the latter possibility.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 29, 2024, 10:08:18 AM
The logic is simple in my mind.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on February 29, 2024, 11:59:05 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on February 29, 2024, 10:08:18 AM
The logic is simple in my mind.
Had China been more cooperative and shut down departures and entrances at the start we might feel different

But as the saying goes if it looks like a duck and sounds like a duck most of the time its a duck
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on February 29, 2024, 12:09:35 PM
I personally think several possibilities are logical and consistent with what little evidence we have that is reliable.  I tend not to infer to much from unclear or negative evidence.  That has bit me a few times.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 29, 2024, 12:27:51 PM
The CCP's actions and inactions, to me, speak volumes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on February 29, 2024, 09:13:58 PM
that and their history of being asshats with zero empathy for loss of human life and human suffering
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 01, 2024, 07:26:20 AM
One can certainly infer something by their (in) actions, no doubt.  But there could be reasons for that other than just trying to hide the source.  They tend to hide a lot of things.  And of course, even if this was a lab leak (which does seem very possible), there are several ways that could have happened, some without malice, just incompetence.  The worst case is that this was designed with intent and released with intent, and I personally think that is less likely than other possibilities.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 01, 2024, 08:48:22 AM
The biggest benefit of the doubt I will grant is that it was a lab leak, and it started to spread inside China. 

Even with this BoD I have reservations.

They closed travel within China, but not to and from China. Why?

They knew what they had and then they purposefully unleashed it on the World.

The zoonotic stuff is just plain BS.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 01, 2024, 09:04:41 AM
I frankly don't know, personally, or have any real confidence on any explanation of its origins.  I think it's plausible it's a natural (zoonotic) virus.  It's also plausible it isn't.  Maybe it was lab created in some effort to study something with no bad intent.  Maybe this, maybe that.

It may be akin to a lot of other things, some opinions might derive more from political leanings to hard evidence, of which there is little I think.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 01, 2024, 12:03:28 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 01, 2024, 09:04:41 AM
I frankly don't know, personally, or have any real confidence on any explanation of its origins.  I think it's plausible it's a natural (zoonotic) virus.  It's also plausible it isn't.  Maybe it was lab created in some effort to study something with no bad intent.  Maybe this, maybe that.

It may be akin to a lot of other things, some opinions might derive more from political leanings to hard evidence, of which there is little I think.
Fact the virus started in China
Fact China realized very quickly what they had and closed off internal travel
Fact China did not close off international travel allowing its citizens to spread the virus around the world
Fact China was not cooperative with outside health organizations trying to find out where the virus came from

that duck is quacking pretty loud
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 01, 2024, 12:07:28 PM
Those facts may be true, and could indicate all sorts of origins consistent with those facts, including that the virus came from bats.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 01, 2024, 12:11:44 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 01, 2024, 12:07:28 PM
Those facts may be true, and could indicate all sorts of origins consistent with those facts, including that the virus came from bats.
You mean those bats that nobody can find

they just spread the virus and disappeared

are those the bats youre talking about
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 01, 2024, 12:36:22 PM
I'm talking about possibilities.  All sorts of scenarios are POSSIBLE, even those which may seem unlikely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: longhorn320 on March 01, 2024, 01:15:08 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 01, 2024, 12:36:22 PM
I'm talking about possibilities.  All sorts of scenarios are POSSIBLE, even those which may seem unlikely.
yes its possible that aliens planted it and wanted is see our reaction

its also possible it cam from God cause hes pissed off at us

but again if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck ,,,,,,,,
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 01, 2024, 01:22:22 PM
WSJ

It's Official: We Can Pretty Much Treat Covid Like the Flu Now. Here's a Guide.

https://www.wsj.com/health/wellness/covid-guidelines-2024-cdc-symptoms-contagious-cdefb6b8?st=nc1x9c081re7a10&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 02, 2024, 08:17:19 AM
I do still see some COVIDians still wearing masks. Outside. In their cars.

(https://i.imgur.com/7TPfp0W.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 02, 2024, 08:20:15 AM
I haven't seen a mask in a long time
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 02, 2024, 08:23:37 AM
I see it rarely.  The other day I did notice a woman alone in her car wearing one.  There are two older couples in the building who wear them at least in the elevator.  I expect to see it much more commonly in Japan, but that isn't due to COVID alone of course.

I said a while back that, to me, it seems to be "over" in daily life for most folks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 02, 2024, 09:14:46 AM
yup, If I see a mask today I won't even assume it's related to COVID

might be for another reason - or any virus in general
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 02, 2024, 09:18:07 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 02, 2024, 09:14:46 AM
yup, If I see a mask today I won't even assume it's related to COVID

might be for another reason - or any virus in general
I assume the person is about to rob a bank.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 02, 2024, 09:37:13 AM
well, you live in Texas
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 03, 2024, 08:19:13 AM
https://www.wsj.com/articles/where-did-covid-come-from-new-evidence-lab-leak-hypothesis-78be1c39?st=cunr817i0xvrmtl&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 04, 2024, 06:49:31 AM
President Trump Is Leading a Once-in-a-Generation Effort to Ensure Americans Have Access to a COVID-19 Vaccine – The White House (archives.gov) (https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/president-trump-leading-generation-effort-ensure-americans-access-covid-19-vaccine/)

I see a lot of irony in this WH press release.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on March 04, 2024, 07:00:38 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 04, 2024, 06:49:31 AM
President Trump Is Leading a Once-in-a-Generation Effort to Ensure Americans Have Access to a COVID-19 Vaccine – The White House (archives.gov) (https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/president-trump-leading-generation-effort-ensure-americans-access-covid-19-vaccine/)

I see a lot of irony in this WH press release.
Where is the irony? 

Trump has long claimed credit to his administration for the vax and is proud of it and hasn’t exactly shied away from that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on March 04, 2024, 07:04:52 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 03, 2024, 08:19:13 AM
https://www.wsj.com/articles/where-did-covid-come-from-new-evidence-lab-leak-hypothesis-78be1c39?st=cunr817i0xvrmtl&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Duh. 

It astounds me that people deny this reality that has been known since almost day one. The shit came from a lab in China.

The simplest explanation is most often the correct one. And the obvious tell that it came from a leak from a lab in China is how the Chinese gov’t reacted. The Chinese gov’t covered it up and went on the attack-deny-til-you-die mode. Tell tale sign #1 they were guilty as sin. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 04, 2024, 07:14:58 AM
Trump won’t say if COVID vaccines work: ‘Not a great thing to talk about’ as a Republican | The Hill (https://thehill.com/homenews/4059468-trump-wont-say-if-covid-vaccines-work-not-a-great-thing-to-talk-about-as-a-republican/)

I notice Trump doesn't like to talk about it for obvious reasons, so I'd opine he shies away from the whole subject.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 04, 2024, 07:22:29 AM
I view China's response as predictable whether it was a lab leak or not.  I doubt initially they would have known internally.  They had something mysterious spreading rapidly, so they shut cities down trying to corral it, and of course "managed" the news, as they always do.  Even the possibility of a lab leak would need to be suppressed.

If they now KNOW it was not a lab leak they'd still be not wanting to discuss the matter.

And stipulating for the moment it likely did originate in that lab, then the question is whether it was an intentional leak or accidental, and whether the lab modified a virus with intent to spread it or just had one of their modifications leak out.  As I've said, I think it is POSSIBLE it was zoonotic.  I don't think we'll ever know with high certainty it's origins other than starting in China.

And I'm not sure it matters IFF it was accidental.



Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 04, 2024, 08:18:05 AM
in my simple uneducated dirt farmer mind, it appears it was a virus modified in a lab with intentions of possibly using it for evil purposes in the future.  

I think the leak was accidental.

What the Chinese govt did after the leak was intentional.
Allowing infected people to travel internationally to spread to the rest of the world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 04, 2024, 08:29:18 AM
I agree at this point the most probable source is that lab and that it was modified therein.  Most probable is of course different from definite.

I'm led to understand that folks fairly routinely modify these things with no bad intent at all to study them.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 04, 2024, 08:39:33 AM
The CCP got what it wanted out of its intentional spread of Covid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 04, 2024, 11:18:16 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on March 04, 2024, 08:18:05 AM
What the Chinese govt did after th
e leak was intentional.
Allowing infected people to travel internationally to spread to the rest of the world.
As opposed to... Basically imprisoning Westerners in China based on the existence of the thing they want to cover up? 

Yeah, nothing's going to get more public scrutiny on China than a bunch of foreign governments and media sources asking "Why won't China let our citizens come home?"

Even if you put a political calculus spin on it, letting them out increased the likelihood that the virus would sprout up somewhere else and it would be anyone EXCEPT China that got the initial blame--might have even happened in Italy which was the first Western hot spot. 

I mean, nobody is trying to say China's not the bad guy here, but let's think things through rationally. I'm assuming they wanted to try to manage this and cover it up, and it's really hard to cover up an international travel ban. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 04, 2024, 11:20:23 AM
Ironically, China's economy is said to be hurting now, that might not be cause and effect of course.  It would be interesting to figure which country was hurt the most by COVID.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 04, 2024, 11:23:06 AM
could have managed it much better by being a bit more honest

like maybe let other governments around the world know that a potentially dangerous virus had accidentally leaked from a lab and they are suggesting no travel for anyone, in China or internationally, until they learn more.

I know that's not what they do or how they go about things, but that's edzachery why they're known as the "bad guy"
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 04, 2024, 11:32:43 AM
I have no expectation that the CCP would be "honest" about much of anything other than perhaps something that puts them in a good light.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 04, 2024, 01:19:07 PM
just one very good reason to blame them for COVID
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Mdot21 on March 04, 2024, 09:40:47 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 04, 2024, 11:20:23 AM
Ironically, China's economy is said to be hurting now, that might not be cause and effect of course.  It would be interesting to figure which country was hurt the most by COVID.
China may well be fcked. they have a population crisis on their hands, a phony real estate bubble that makes anything here look like child's play, and their entire economy and country really was built on being the worlds low cost manufacturer, and well it's not so low cost to manufacture there anymore.

tariffs + rising costs to manufacture +  the CCP's COVID fiasco = flight from China.

US/EU multi-nationals have all been trying/planning to pivot production away from China for some time, and that's starting to gain traction and COVID accelerated it a bit. I mean Apple is just now starting to build iPhone's in India for christ sake, and that company was the biggest foreign multi-national ball-licker of China/CCP on planet earth. More and more foreign based multi-nationals are just going to pivot manufacturing to Vietnam, India, Thailand, Mexico, etc., over time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 05, 2024, 07:13:33 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 04, 2024, 11:20:23 AM
Ironically, China's economy is said to be hurting now, that might not be cause and effect of course.  It would be interesting to figure which country was hurt the most by COVID. 
Our own.

Half of this country doesn't see eye to eye with the other half. We haven't been this divided since 1861. It feels very fragile to me. And I'm not talking about Democracy, because we are not that (WE ARE NOT THAT!!). The Republic feels fragile.


Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 04, 2024, 08:39:33 AM

The CCP got what it wanted out of its intentional spread of Covid.


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 05, 2024, 07:21:56 AM
The term "democracy" often is used as a very broad meaning that includes more than a pure democratic system.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 05, 2024, 07:32:18 AM
It's a vastly overused term in this Country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 05, 2024, 07:42:52 AM
hopefully, the CCP screwed up in the checkers game

their handling of COVID pissed off enough of the world that it will tank their economy and set them back 100 years

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 05, 2024, 07:45:57 AM
We have no clue about their economy. They manipulate their currency and have for years.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 05, 2024, 07:52:06 AM
I think we have a clue, at least, but perhaps not much for certain.

China sets GDP target of 'around 5%' for 2024 (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/05/china-gdp-target-2024.html)

China: estimated GDP growth 2024 | Statista (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102691/china-estimated-coronavirus-covid-19-impact-on-gdp-growth/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 05, 2024, 07:53:08 AM
you mean like the US of A

just print more $$$

it's stands to reason in my uneducated mind, that if huge amounts of manufacturing pull out of China along with other investments and much of the world takes their money elsewhere, it could/should have a negative effect for the Chinese economy 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 05, 2024, 07:57:05 AM
I'm not sure a "huge amount" has pulled out of China.  A lot of their issues appear to be based on real estate, perhaps more than manufacturing (folks are shifting production to cheaper countries, which always happens).  If they truly have a 5% growth rate (???), it's pretty solid even if not what they claimed to be having in the past.

China’s economy is becoming a drag on global growth | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank (https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/01/chinas-economy-becoming-drag-global-growth?gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAiAopuvBhBCEiwAm8jaMe0ys4U81553UQvfmkE2D6WM1JdSFCJHHoQUdVQa57BFmtOiiKjXQBoCJvYQAvD_BwE)

Chinese households are gloomy to a large degree because the value of their main asset, namely property, has been suffering losses for a considerable time now. Real estate prices across 70 cities have been falling consistently since April 2022, hardly conducive to a ‘positive wealth effect’ that might encourage households to go out and spend.
Quote
Quote
Employment prospects are bleak, largely because Chinese firms seem unwilling to invest.

The result is that China is at the edge of a deflationary trap: consumer price inflation has been negative in four of the past six months. This risks turning into a self-reinforcing spiral if households postpone purchases in the hope that prices continue to fall – a dynamic that isn’t helped by China’s falling population.
 
While it’s true that retail sales rose 7.2 per cent for the whole of 2023, this should be seen as a kind of failure: apart from 2020 and 2022, two years badly affected by COVID-related lockdowns, that growth rate is the weakest China has seen since 1999.
 


Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 05, 2024, 08:21:05 AM
Lockdowns hurt every country (or state) who imposed them.

We should have did Sweden.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 05, 2024, 08:40:40 AM
I recall that the governor here "reopened" what many thought was too early, and was criticized for it rather widely.  Even so, most places stayed closed of their own volition.  Even where places did not lock down, the economy went south.

(https://i.imgur.com/lwJg2TQ.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 05, 2024, 10:56:30 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 05, 2024, 07:13:33 AM
Our own.

Half of this country doesn't see eye to eye with the other half. We haven't been this divided since 1861. It feels very fragile to me. And I'm not talking about Democracy, because we are not that (WE ARE NOT THAT!!). The Republic feels fragile.
I agree with you on what's happening, but disagree that COVID was all that much of a cause. This trend has been happening for MUCH longer than that. 

You all know my belief on it, so I'm not going to belabor the point--we now live in a country where people curate their news/media/socials to surround themselves with a nice little cocoon of confirmation bias. They never expose themselves to "the other side", and learn everything about "the other side" from their own. It's a VERY small step from that to viewing "the other side" as not their countrymen but their enemy. Especially when their own side fans those flames by teaching them to fear and hate the other side. 

COVID just amplified it a bit. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 05, 2024, 11:14:13 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 05, 2024, 10:56:30 AM
I agree with you on what's happening, but disagree that COVID was all that much of a cause. This trend has been happening for MUCH longer than that.

You all know my belief on it, so I'm not going to belabor the point--we now live in a country where people curate their news/media/socials to surround themselves with a nice little cocoon of confirmation bias. They never expose themselves to "the other side", and learn everything about "the other side" from their own. It's a VERY small step from that to viewing "the other side" as not their countrymen but their enemy. Especially when their own side fans those flames by teaching them to fear and hate the other side.

COVID just amplified it a bit.
2000 election.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 05, 2024, 11:14:45 AM
Confirmation bias has been with us forever, but the "media" have figured out the economic value in providing it.  How many folks make at least some effort to check "both sides" of some news item?  Or even are aware that a thing happened because their preferred outlet didn't cover it?

Add in social media and you have a magnifying glass on opinions.  We used to barely know, if at all, what our neighbor thought about politics, much less that of someone living hundreds of miles away.  

Now we have folks who believe the NYT is entirely an outlet for DNC Talking Points but who have never read it, or haven't any time recently.  I have encountered a few who believe Fox News has gone far left, and others who believe MSNBC is pretty right wing.  This says more about them than the outlets I think.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 05, 2024, 11:32:15 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on March 05, 2024, 11:14:13 AM
2000 election.
Again, I'd go back even farther (talk radio / 24/7 cable news), but that was definitely a seminal moment. 

What IMHO really put the gasoline on the fire was algorithmic social media feeds and algorithmic news feeds, which actively promote what you engage with and filter out what you don't. It creates that "cocoon" from which it is hard to escape because it won't feed you new information. It's designed to merely reinforce what you already believe because you've already clicked on something similar to it. 

You have to absolutely go out of your way these days to find something outside your comfort zone, and very few people will put in the effort, much less WANT to escape their comfort zone. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: bayareabadger on March 05, 2024, 12:20:34 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 05, 2024, 10:56:30 AM
I agree with you on what's happening, but disagree that COVID was all that much of a cause. This trend has been happening for MUCH longer than that.

You all know my belief on it, so I'm not going to belabor the point--we now live in a country where people curate their news/media/socials to surround themselves with a nice little cocoon of confirmation bias. They never expose themselves to "the other side", and learn everything about "the other side" from their own. It's a VERY small step from that to viewing "the other side" as not their countrymen but their enemy. Especially when their own side fans those flames by teaching them to fear and hate the other side.

COVID just amplified it a bit.
I think that’s part of it, but it seems like we also hit a point where it became more and more popular to aggressively make one’s politics part of one’s personality. And for those politics themselves are becoming more aggressive (probably because of that cocoon you mentioned)

granted, I think part of that is the sense that kind of agro politics is a precursor to your team’s success. And maybe that’s true, but man is it unpleasant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 05, 2024, 12:49:22 PM
Folks are treating politics like they treat their favorite sports teams.  It's a problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 05, 2024, 01:09:35 PM
Quote from: utee94 on March 05, 2024, 12:49:22 PM
Folks are treating politics like they treat their favorite sports teams.  It's a problem.
It's a shame.

Would be nice to start over, using the Constitution and Bill of Rights. Everybody out. But then, there could be bigger problems.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 06, 2024, 07:40:23 AM
Man Takes 217 COVID-19 Vaccines In 29 Months For "Private Reasons", Is Fine | IFLScience (https://www.iflscience.com/man-takes-217-covid-19-vaccines-in-29-months-for-private-reasons-is-fine-73253?fbclid=IwAR2Ui_7-aK9Fghhz_E2GeEDUAfg169ABTRIGfe4g6qU55D3ceH2xFOExQQE#ltfrn8ff8aa8whcpxj9)

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 06, 2024, 08:15:41 AM
IFLScience = I follow Science????

geeeez, he's leading as a lab rat
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 06, 2024, 08:20:30 AM
Just dumb.

More questions. Who authorized this many vaccines? It's not like you can go to Walmart and buy them OTC.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 06, 2024, 08:27:33 AM
Looks like he went to different vax centers, and finally was noted.

A man deliberately got 217 Covid shots. Here’s what happened | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/06/health/covid-217-shots-hypervaccination-lancet/index.html#:~:text=One German man has redefined,one jab every four days.)



According to his immunization history, the man got his first Covid vaccine in June 2021. He got 16 shots that year at centers across the eastern state of Saxony.

He ramped up his efforts in 2022, rolling up his sleeves for shots in both his right and left arms almost every day in January, for a total of 48 shots that month.
Then he kept going: 34 shots in February and six more shots in March. Around this time, German Red Cross staff members in the city of Dresden became suspicious and issued a warning to other vaccination centers, encouraging them to call the police if they saw the man again, CNN affiliate RTL [color=var(--theme-paragraph__link-color)]reported (https://www.rtl.de/cms/drei-corona-impfungen-am-tag-mr-booster-aus-magdeburg-laesst-sich-87-mal-impfen-ist-das-schaedlich-4947922.html)[/url] in April 2022.[/font][/size][/color]
In early March, he showed up at a vaccination center in the town of Eilenburg and was detained by police. He was suspected of selling the vaccination cards to third parties, according to RTL. This was during a time when many European countries required [color=var(--theme-paragraph__link-color)]proof of vaccination (https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/eu-vaccination-passports-summer/index.html)[/iurl] to access public venues and travel.[/font][/size][/color]
The public prosecutor in Magdeburg opened an investigation into the man for the unauthorized issuing of vaccination cards and forgery of documents but did not end up filing criminal charges, according to the study.




Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 06, 2024, 08:45:39 AM
Although they didn't charge him, it seems plausible he was selling vax cards.  He'd get one each time, and I suppose they don't keep accurate records center to center to know he showed up multiple times.  Finding evidence he was doing that would be a challenge.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: FearlessF on March 06, 2024, 09:05:33 AM
follow the $$$
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 07, 2024, 07:56:05 AM
Is it long COVID or long vax? Does the government want to know? | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/4512451-is-it-long-covid-or-long-vax-does-the-government-want-to-know/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 07, 2024, 08:30:27 AM
I had not read about the "long Vax" theory before, thanks.  It seems possible.  

It is rather stunning to me as a separate issue how differing points of view were clearly suppressed by social media.  I can understand the why of that, in theory and at times, but it's a concern.  

Who determines what is garbage information and misleading and what is not?  That's a key question with no clear answer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 07, 2024, 08:49:52 AM
My doc is not promoting any further COVID vaccinations for people who don't have high risk factors.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 07, 2024, 09:31:45 AM
Quote from: utee94 on March 07, 2024, 08:49:52 AM
My doc is not promoting any further COVID vaccinations for people who don't have high risk factors. 
Same.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 07, 2024, 09:40:07 AM
My doc told me he was high on vaccines generally, but not the RSV vaccine if you are reasonably healthy.  I didn't ask him about COVID boosters.  I'll think about it more when we're due.  My doc is pretty responsive to emails.

Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Hawkinole on March 07, 2024, 11:39:38 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 07, 2024, 09:40:07 AM
My doc told me he was high on vaccines generally, but not the RSV vaccine if you are reasonably healthy.  I didn't ask him about COVID boosters.  I'll think about it more when we're due.  My doc is pretty responsive to emails.
My youngest brother who took many precautions as a dentist (double masking while working) finally got COVID this past week for the 1st time. I am over 65 and didn't take the RSV this year. It was the 1st year offered. I got the COVID and flu vaccines. The odds of RSV increase for very young, and for older persons. I thought I would bide my time on RSV a bit longer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 12, 2024, 08:04:10 AM
Uh huh.

(https://i.imgur.com/hm9rBmD.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on March 12, 2024, 12:11:59 PM
https://twitter.com/rumbleSBN/status/1767401224771346796?t=DhW8Zlg9nLQPSMOv1LHSKA&s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 12, 2024, 12:19:50 PM
Terrible decision all around there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: GopherRock on March 12, 2024, 04:17:11 PM
It can only be viewed as a bad decision with four years of hindsight. 

Remember at the time, COVID was a virus that no one knew a damn thing about other than it hospitalized 1/6 of those it infected, and killed half of those. Everyone I knew in healthcare and education was terrified to bring it home. 

I remember being at state basketball at Williams Arena that Wednesday, and everyone's phone kept buzzing with alerts about tourney cancellations, and then Big Ten universities moving the rest of their semesters online and sending their students home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 13, 2024, 06:57:03 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/vS1kBDu.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: ELA on March 20, 2024, 08:11:19 PM
https://twitter.com/SullyCNBC/status/1770427808868618461?s=20
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 21, 2024, 03:08:17 AM
Few masks being worn here.  
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 21, 2024, 05:57:37 AM
Quote from: ELA on March 20, 2024, 08:11:19 PM
https://twitter.com/SullyCNBC/status/1770427808868618461?s=20
To me, this is the absolute worst part of the lockdowns.

This bitch needs to go to prison for the rest of her life, as do all the people who accepted her union stooge donations and supported her line of thinking (control over people).


(https://i.imgur.com/QOvSZ2E.png)

(Yes, I'm in a pissy mood. fasting for blood work sucks. Sorry.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: utee94 on March 21, 2024, 09:26:37 AM
One of the biggest cases where the ZoMg FOlLoW tHe sCIeNcE crew failed miserably.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: Cincydawg on March 27, 2024, 08:56:20 AM
Moderna moves three vaccines into final stage trials (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/27/moderna-moves-three-vaccines-into-final-stage-trials.html)

I meant to mention that relatively few folks in Japan or Korea were wearing face masks.  There were more than here, no doubt, but it was probably about 15% of those walking about in a mall or outside.  I saw a couple folks alone in their cars with a mask on.

I was a bit surprised.

There were a few on the ship with masks, maybe 3% or so.  In Japan, a higher percentage of retail workers had masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 27, 2024, 09:11:00 AM
Interesting on Moderna. Norovirus would be something.